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Description

Effective monitoring of small, avoidant wildlife populations requires an understanding of movement pathways between known areas. The Pinto Creek mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population in Alberta has remained at fewer than 50 individuals for several decades, and current monitoring efforts are largely focused within the Pinto Creek Canyon Natural Area. This study evaluates whether that approach adequately captures the broader extent of land use and identifies potential movement pathways connecting the canyon to surrounding habitat. A modelling framework was used to assess habitat connectivity across the landscape. Escape terrain was derived from slope, and buffers were generated to represent adjacent areas likely to be used while the goats remain close to safety. Spatial overlap between escape terrain and industrial disturbance, including forestry, roads, and mining, was quantified. Five resistance scenarios model potential behavioural responses of the goats towards industrial activity. Disturbance effects were modelled using a 1000m buffer, representing the distance beyond which industrial noise impact was assumed to be absent, with multiple resistance gradients applied within that zone. Least-cost pathway analysis was used to model potential movement routes between the canyon and surrounding habitat patches under each scenario. Results indicate that substantial escape terrain occurs outside the protected canyon and that predicted movement pathways vary depending on disturbance avoidance behaviour. As disturbance resistance increases, pathways become altered, but routes remain within disturbance areas if escape terrain is prioritized. These findings suggest that current monitoring may underrepresent the full extent of mountain goat land use and that monitoring should incorporate predicted movement corridors. This study demonstrates the value of scenario-based spatial modelling for guiding targeted monitoring and identifying priority areas for conservation and disturbance mitigation.