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Abstract

A decade ago, in 2015, a paper in this journal heralded the “comeback” of Canada’s iconic Northern cod some 25 years after its collapse in the early 1990s. In this paper, the stock status determined by current and past models and recent management is reviewed, 10 years later. Summarily, surplus production and growth have stalled, some years being negative, although the stall point biomass is controversial (and well below historical norms). Structural equation models indicate the main correlate of production is spawning stock biomass (positive), whose correlates are abundances of capelin (Mallotus villosus) (positive) and harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) (negative), with net production (enabling SSB growth) further reduced by fisheries. Reductions in the SSB thought necessary to avoid impairing recruitment, from 1.3 to 0.25 million t, have led to increases in harvest allocations and reopened commercial Canadian and foreign fisheries, despite advice by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans and independent science to keep removals low. Management objectives are opaque; if rebuilding, then SSB growth must remain the main objective, otherwise the Northern cod will be restrained to a shadow of its historical abundance and socio-economic and cultural importance.