UBC Research Data

Burn-P3 modelling of fire behaivour on Rose Swanson Mountain, British Columbia before and after harvesting Klonsky, Jacob


It has been long known that wildfire and harvesting can have a relationship. However, this relationship is not straightforward and well understood. In this paper, we hope to quantify the impact of proposed harvesting on the wildfire severity and probability on Rose Swanson Mountain. Rose Swanson Mountain is a small mountain in South Central BC near the town of Armstrong used by the locals for its bountiful outdoor recreation. In early 2020 British Columbia Timber Sales added part of the Rose Swanson Mountain Sensitive Area to its list of soon-to-be harvested areas. This paper illustrates the research done in BurnP3 and ArcPro to simulate and measure fire in a pre and post logged Rose Swanson. After 5,000 iterations of the BurnP3 model using the pre-logging fuel type data, the fire probability ranged from 0% to 49.7%, with a mean probability of 6.45% across the landscape. After 5000 iterations of the BurnP3 model using post logging fuel types on Rose Swanson, the burn probability ranged from 0-49.34%, with a mean of 6.43% across Rose Swanson Mountain. This indicated the fire probability across the mountain and little increase as a whole. However, an apparent increase in fire probability was present in the close vicinity to the logged areas. Additionally, the pre-logged average fire intensity values on Rose Swanson ranged from 0 to 60,599 kW/m with a mean value of 2,841 kW/m, while the post-logged ranged from 0 to 122,849 KW/m with a mean of 3,183 kW/m. This difference was clear in the maps produced by BurnP3. While the results were insightful, many limitations were noted, including poor fuel type accuracy, limited model run count, and low-resolution data. The research offers valuable insight into the wildfire and harvesting relationship and sets the toon for further research.

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