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Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators Florko, Katie; Tai, Travis; Cheung, William; Ferguson, Steve; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Yurkowski, David; Auger-Méthé, Marie

Description

<b>Abstract</b><br/>

Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.</p>

Item Metadata

Title	Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators
Creator	Florko, Katie; Tai, Travis; Cheung, William; Ferguson, Steve; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Yurkowski, David; Auger-Méthé, Marie
Date Issued	2021-08-26
Description	<b>Abstract</b><br/> Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.</p>
Subject	Other
Type	Dataset
Notes	Dryad version number: 3</p> Version status: submitted</p> Dryad curation status: Published</p> Sharing link: https://datadryad.org/stash/share/GaxKMF0XchMtAXFEx4gtSgZ0FEgIm2kjZrhk94iz93o</p> Storage size: 13701530</p> Visibility: public</p>
Date Available	2021-08-23
Provider	University of British Columbia Library
License	CC0 1.0
DOI	10.14288/1.0401724
URI	https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX
Publisher DOI	https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX; https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.x69p8czjs
Rights URI	http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0
Aggregated Source Repository	Dataverse

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CC0 1.0