Open Collections

Pauly, Daniel; Khalfallah, Myriam; Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal; Teh, Lydia C. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Wabnitz, Colette C. C.; Palomares, Maria L. Deng; Zeller, Dirk; Cheung, William W. L.; Lam, Vicky W. Y.

<b>Abstract</b><br/>Climate change - reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions - is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Arabian Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of climate change impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Arabian Gulf, with projections differing only slightly between models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.; <b>Usage notes</b><br /><div class="o-metadata__file-usage-entry"><h4 class="o-heading__level3-file-title">Data set for Figure 2A</h4><div class="o-metadata__file-name">FIGURE2A.csv</br></div></div><div class="o-metadata__file-usage-entry"><h4 class="o-heading__level3-file-title">Data set for Figure 2B</h4><div class="o-metadata__file-name">FIGURE2B.csv</br></div></div><div class="o-metadata__file-usage-entry"><h4 class="o-heading__level3-file-title">Data set for Figure 2C</h4><div class="o-metadata__file-name">FIGURE2C.csv</br></div></div><div class="o-metadata__file-usage-entry"><h4 class="o-heading__level3-file-title">Data set for Figure 3</h4><div class="o-metadata__file-name">FIGURE3.csv</br></div></div><div class="o-metadata__file-usage-entry"><h4 class="o-heading__level3-file-title">Data set for Figure 5</h4><div class="o-metadata__file-name">FIGURE5.csv</br></div></div>

Persian (Arabian) Gulf

Dryad version number: 1</p>

Version status: submitted</p>

Dryad curation status: Published</p>

Sharing link: https://datadryad.org/stash/share/Gkro6lel_qlJ-C7rNt9GgLnCV282eXMl2_kvZKBqPUE</p>

Storage size: 24438300</p>

Visibility: public</p>

University of British Columbia Library

10.14288/1.0397595

https://doi.org/10.5683/SP2/9RF9KU; https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.mt588k1

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