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Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work International Crisis Group 2006-12-15

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 NEPAL'S PEACE AGREEMENT: MAKING IT WORK
Asia Report N° 126 - 15 December 2006
Internationa
Crisis Group
WORKING TO PREVENT
CONFLICT WORLDWIDE
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS i
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. APRIL AFTERMATH 2
A. From Popular Protest to Parliamentary Supremacy 2
B. A Functional Government? 3
C. Contested Country 5
III. THE TALKS 6
A. A Rocky Start 6
1. Eight-point agreement 6
2. Engaging the UN 7
3. Mutual suspicion 8
B. The Sticking Points 8
1. Arms management 9
2. The monarchy 9
3. Interim institutions 9
C. Back on Track 10
IV. THE DEAL 11
A. What Was Agreed 11
B. The Dynamics of Compromise 13
C. Public Reaction and Demands for Inclusion 13
D. The Role of the United Nations 14
V. PEACE POLITICS: SAME PLAYERS, NEW PLANS 16
A. The Parliamentary Parhes 16
B. TheMaoists 19
C. ThePalace 20
D. Civil Society 21
E. International Community 22
VI. THE ROAD AHEAD 23
A. Will it Work? 23
1. Overambitious timetable 23
2. Keeping the process on track 24
3. Potential spoilers 24
B. From Arms Management to Demlitarisation 25
1. Implementing the arms management agreement 25
2. Possible problems 25
3. Towards demilitarisation 26
C. Rule of Law and Democratic Space 27
D. Peace and Justice? 28
VII. CONCLUSION 29
APPENDICES
A. Map of Nepal 30
B. Chronology of the Peace Process 31
C. About the International Crisis Group 33
D. Crisis Group Reports and Briefings on Asia 34
E. Crisis Group Board of Trustees 37
 Crisis Group
WORKING TO PREVENT
CONFLICT WORLDWIDE
Asia Report N°126
15 December 2006
NEPAL'S PEACE AGREEMENT: MAKING IT WORK
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Nepal's government and Maoist rebels have signed a
comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) declaring an end
to the ten-year civil war, paving the way for inclusion of
the rebels in mainstream politics and June 2007 elections to
an assembly that is to write a new constitution. The deal
has been welcomed by an optimistic public but
implementation will not be straightforward: some
central questions remain, and there is a serious risk the
elections could be delayed, putting strain on the whole
process. The UN has very high credibility but it will not
last ^definitely, especially if there are delays. Intemational
support for its monitoring of both the two armies and the
elections will be critical.
The peace agreement charts a course towards elections
for a constituent assembly (CA) following formation of
an interim legislature and government including the
Maoists. In a detailed agreement on arms management,
the Maoists have committed to cantonment of their
fighters and locking up their weapons under UN
supervision; the Nepalese Army (NA) will be largely
confined to barracks. The constituent assembly, to be
elected through a mixed first-past-the-post and proportional
system, will also decide the future ofthe monarchy.
The CPA was signed on 21 November 2006 after
months of slow progress following the success of the
April 2006 mass movement that overturned King
Gyanendra's direct rule. The talks were sporadic and at
one point came close to collapse. The Seven-Party
Alliance (SPA) government was criticised for a lack of
urgency and clarity; the Maoists pursued negotiations
with more coherence but paid less attention to democratic
methods. The process has now delivered significant
results but some of the problems that characterised it
since April - primarily a lack of solid dialogue mechanisms,
poor facilitation, little attention to confidence-building
and an opaque, elite-driven approach - may continue to
dog the next stages.
The deal has its origins in the November 2005 SPA-
Maoist agreement signed in New Delhi, which provided
a basis for the April movement and a guiding framework
for subsequent compromises. However, it represents a
temporary convergence of interests more than a permanent
shift in the underlying outlooks and interests of the
sides. The SPA and the Maoists retain different visions
for Nepal's future institutions, and individual parties'
electoral interests will come increasingly to the fore. The
peace accord will not in itself alter the exclusionary
characteristics of public life or deliver urgently needed
economic progress.
The significant remaining hurdles will all be exacerbated
if elections are postponed:
Weak governance. Post-April confusion turned into a
worrying power vacuum across the country, which the
Maoists were quick to exploit. The government has failed
to re-establish law and order and democratic governance.
Control over the civil service, election commission and
distribution of local posts - always key bones of contention
for mainstream parties - may be particularly intense in
the run-up to CA elections.
No deal on security structures. The Maoists want their
fighters to be half of a new, downsized national force
while the NA still wants them entirely disarmed. Neither
army sees itself as defeated, so compromise will be
difficult, and lack of progress may cause unrest among
cantoned Maoist soldiers. With the NA suspicious ofthe
peace process and yet to embrace democratic control, the
Maoist demand for more solid guarantees is understandable.
Maoist behaviour. At least until November, the Maoists
continued extortions and abductions while showing little
sign they are ready for meaningful power sharing and
opening up of democratic space. Demilitarising their
politics will require more than just laying down weapons;
without this, chances for free and fair elections are limited.
International involvement in the peace process has been
mostly low-profile and supportive. The government and
Maoists have asked the UN to take on new tasks and
provide immediate assistance, and public expectations
are high. But getting an effective monitoring force on the
ground quickly will be a challenge: questions of mandate,
funding, logistics and staffing need to be resolved quickly.
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page ii
Nevertheless, the peace process has some momentum,
which gives good grounds for Nepalis' optimism. With
continued compromise, political will and solid international
support, a lasting peace is possible. Apart from shaping
future institutional arrangements, the talks have agreed
proposals for social and economic transformation - topics
of immense public concern. However, only free and fair
elections can give a government the necessary decisive
mandate. Nothing should be allowed to put them off.
RECOMMENDATIONS
To the Government of Nepal and the Communist
Party of Nepal (Maoist):
1. Build on the  comprehensive  peace  agreement
(CPA) by:
(a) resolving remaining differences quickly
and establishing the specified joint bodies
and commissions, including, in particular,
agreement on the scope and format of the
Truth and Reconciliation Commission;
(b) setting realistic timetables for the remainder
ofthe process, including fallback plans if
the constituent assembly elections must be
postponed;
(c) managing public expectations and
disseminating information about the
CPA; and
(d) developing provisional arrangements to
take urgent decisions as necessary by
alternative mechanisms such as joint
working groups so any delays in
forming an interim government do not
stall the peace process.
2. Develop  quickly plans to  re-establish local
governance and rule of law by:
(a) prioritising re-establishment of effective
policing, including by involving local
Maoist militias in helping to manage the
transition in areas they currently control;
(b) deciding on a power-sharing mechanism to
restore local government, deliver services
and, where appropriate, deal with donors
on implementation of local projects; and
(c) proceeding with proposed local peace
councils only if they fulfil clearly defined
functions which do not make them rival
institutions to legitimate local government.
3. Build confidence on military matters by:
(a) establishing effective bilateral frameworks
for joint planning on cantonment
management and working with donors
willing to support the cantonment process;
(b) addressing longer-term army restructuring
and merging of Maoist fighters into the
national army by establishing a joint
committee as soon as the interim government
is formed (as specified in the CPA) and
proceeding with informal discussions until
that date;
(c) developing further confidence-building
and dialogue mechanisms that include
commanders of both armed forces and
working to ensure their active support for
the peace process and professional input
into discussions over their future form; and
(d) Making the NA-PLA-UN Joint Monitoring
Coordination Committee an effective
mechanism not just for monitoring
agreement compliance but also for
developing lower-level coordination to
deal with potentially destabilising incidents
such as natural disasters or public unrest.
Make the next stages of the peace process more
inclusive by:
(a) actively seeking public input, including
canvassing the views of conflict victims,
without assuming that self-appointed groups
are necessarily fully representative;
(b) encouraging independent voter education
initiatives in the run-up to the constituent
assembly elections;
(c) fulfilling promises to ensure fair
representation of all marginalised groups
(in interim bodies, as candidates for
election and in negotiating teams, working
groups, joint commissions and the like)
and setting up a monitoring body or
interim legislature committee to report on
implementation;
(d) Expanding public forums, focus groups and
local consultation sessions to reach out to
communities which have difficulty making
their voice heard in the capital and considering
holding interim legislature sessions and
other such meetings outside the capital;
(e) ensuring key decisions involve all SPA
members, not only the top Nepali Congress
Party and Maoist leaders, and encouraging
broader debate, for example by recognising
an official opposition within the interim
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page iii
legislature and consulting with non-SPA
parties; and
(f) considering creation of a commission to
broaden input into the new constitution-
drafting process.
5. Investigate and resolve, as promised, all outstanding
cases of alleged disappearances and cooperate in
the investigation of criminal acts and war crimes
committed during the conflict.
To the Government of Nepal:
6. Prepare for the formation ofthe interim government
by completing implementation of existing policies,
including:
(a) strengthening democratic control of the
security sector by dissolving the palace
military secretariat, bringing royal guards
under the Nepalese Army chain of
command, halting army recruitment and
investigating, as promised, disappearances
and other abuses alleged to have been
carried out by the security forces;
(b) seeking advice from all concerned groups
on implementation of the Rayamajhi
Commission report and starting a wider
public debate on acceptable forms of
transitional justice; and
(c) reducing the size of the palace secretariat
and bringing it within the mainstream civil
service.
To the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist):
7. Immediately cease all activities that contravene
recent agreements and international law and
ensure that affiliated and subsidiary organisations
do the same, including:
(a) ending extortion, intimidation and abduction;
(b) halting military recruitment and ensuring
the prompt discharge of any soldiers
younger than eighteen;
(c) recognising that the Maoist "new regime"
is now defunct and disbanding all parallel
government structures, including indirect
mechanisms such as regional fronts;
(d) allowing the police, as agreed in the CPA,
to maintain order and investigate criminal
activities;
(e) assisting the return home of all conflict-
displaced individuals (IDPs) if they wish
and expediting the return of seized property;
and
(f) demobilising local militia and ensuring
they do not act as a parallel police force.
To India, the U.S., the European Union and Other
Members ofthe International Community:
8. Maintain basic coordination, building on the
consensus that restoration of rule of law and
democratic space across the country is the top
priority, and keep pressure on both sides to work
towards a genuinely pluralist culture guaranteeing
full civil and political rights.
9. Support the UN monitoring mission by:
(a) personnel, including by identifying and
preparing candidates as soon as possible;
(b) visible political encouragement, especially
from missions in Kathmandu; and
(c) cooperation with the UN to open local
political space through coordinated civil
affairs and police advisory assistance.
10. Provide effective development, reconstruction and
other post-conflict assistance, including by:
(a) employing strict criteria, especially at the
local level, when distributing aid to reestablish local governance, and releasing
funds only when measurable targets are
met, such as redeploying police or getting
Village Development Committee secretaries
in place and working;
(b) prioritising assistance that supports the
opening of political space and the rule of
law, even over aid for such security
matters as cantonments and disarmament,
demobilisation and reintegration (DDR);
(c) ensuring that proposed projects have the
buy-in of all parties in the peace process;
(d) supporting the electoral process with
money, helping the UN monitoring mission
(which may be best placed to coordinate
electoral assistance) and building the
capacity of the Electoral Commission also
beyond the immediate round of polls; and
(e) helping the government develop, including
through extensive consultations, a plan for
transitional justice that gives citizens a
range of options to choose from and can
gain broad public support.
Kathmandu/Brussels, 15 December 2006
 Crisis Group
WORKING TO PREVENT
CONFLICT WORLDWIDE
Asia Report N°126
15 December 2006
NEPAL'S PEACE AGREEMENT: MAKING IT WORK
INTRODUCTION
The comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) between
Nepal's government and Maoist rebels, which offers the
best chance of a stable end to the conflict since it began
in February 1996,1 was signed on the evening of 21
November 2006 after months of difficult negotiations
following the April 2006 mass movement that brought
an end to King Gyanendra's direct rule. Its roots are in
talks between the major parliamentary parties' seven-
party alliance (SPA)2 and the Communist Party of
Nepal (Maoist), CPN(M), that were secretly initiated in
New Delhi in mid-2005 with the Indian government's
blessing.3 The CPA broadly endorses the rough
framework those talks produced but addresses many
issues left unresolved in the earlier rounds.
However, the deal is not as comprehensive as its name
implies. It took a further week of intensive wrangling to
agree the modalities for arms management; finalising an
interim constitution - a task originally scheduled for
completion in June 2006 - is taking even longer. The
optimistic 1 December target for forming an interim
government was missed, and there are serious questions
over whether free and fair constituent assembly
elections can take place as scheduled by June 2007.
Some of the difficulties which delayed the peace talks
(analysed below) have been addressed but there are new
Recent Crisis Group reporting on Nepal includes Crisis
Group Asia Report N°l 11, Electing Chaos, 31 January 2006;
Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°49, Nepal's Crisis: Mobilising
International Influence, 19 April 2006; and Crisis Group Asia
Report N°l 15, Nepal: From People Power to Peace? 10 May
2006. Earlier Crisis Group reporting on the conflict is
available at www.crisisgroup.org.
2 The SPA members are the Nepali Congress (NC); Nepali
Congress (Democratic) (NC(D)); Communist Party of Nepal
(Unified Marxist-Leninist) (UML); Janamorcha Nepal; Nepal
Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP); United Left Front (ULF);
and Nepal Sadbhavana Party (AanandiDevi) (NSP(AD)).
3 See Crisis Group Asia Report N°106, Nepal's New
Alliance: The Mainstream Parties and the Maoists, 28
November 2005.
process challenges, for example deploying UN monitors
within the tight deadlines envisioned by the parties.
Nevertheless, the agreement is a major achievement for
the mainstream parties and the Maoists, completed
against considerable odds and in the face of some deep-
seated domestic and international scepticism. The
process had to overcome a number of hurdles, and
mutual mistrust brought the talks close to breaking
point in early September. While the government
sometimes seemed content to enjoy its new power
without pushing to a resolution, the Maoists issued dark
warnings of an October revolution, giving ample
ammunition to those who saw little reason to trust their
commitment to democracy. Overcoming such problems
required skill and determination on both sides.
Although the April people's movement produced a
dramatic transfer of power, many of the underlying
aspects of the political landscape remained unchanged.
The king has been chastened, losing much of his dignity
and many of his powers. The collapse of palace prestige
is notable but it does not mean the country will
inevitably become a republic or that the palace can be
ruled out as a future political player. The army has a
new name and a new commander but despite some
cooling of relations with the palace and a new law
making it more democratically accountable, it remains
largely autonomous and suspicious of the peace
process. The mainstream parties and Maoists have
hardly altered their political cultures, however much the
former have promised to tackle their chronic
shortcomings and the latter to reject violence and
embrace political pluralism. The most palpable shift has
been in the public mood. Opinion polls confirm a solid
sense of optimism about Nepal's future, and popular
expectations have kept pressure on the SPA and Maoists
to deliver a settlement.4
Some 89 per cent of respondents in a survey commissioned
by the National Democratic Institute felt "things in Nepal are
going in the right direction". "Nepal: A Cautiously Optimistic
J?ublic", Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Inc., 17
September 2006. This is a dramatic change in mood: two
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 2
This report examines the talks, the shape of the peace
agreement, the new positions and tactics of the key
actors and the challenges ahead. Separate reports in
early 2007 will examine the constitutional process, the
security sector in transition and Maoist politics and
strategy.
II.     APRIL AFTERMATH
A. From Popular Protest to
PARLIAMENTARY SUPREMACY
The April 2006 movement resulted in the reinstatement
of parliament, which had been the longstanding central
demand ofthe Nepali Congress (the largest parliamentary
party) and latterly the SPA.5 Parliament is a crucial
power base for the parties, especially important as they
are the only side in the conflict without an armed
component. It is a source of legitimacy (something they
had lost following its May 2002 dissolution) as well as
a means of exercising patronage and influence, for
example in the allocation of committee chairmanships.
The SPA formed a new government and distributed
cabinet ministries among its constituent parties.6 Not
surprisingly, the Maoists were unhappy that their
proposal for an all-party conference instead of
parliament was bypassed and aggrieved that their
support of the April movement did not win them any
role in the new power structure.7
Questions immediately arose over the legality of
parliament's restoration - justified by political necessity
rather than constitutional process - and over its mandate.
King Gyanendra did not cite any constitutional clause
when he reinstated the parliament "to resolve the
ongoing violent conflict and other problems facing the
years earlier, 95 per cent thought the country was headed in
the wrong direction. "Faith in Democracy Endures, In Spite
of Disappointments", Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
Inc., 16 August 2004. In a separate September 2006 survey,
92 per cent were positive, saying the country was doing
"good" (49 per cent), "okay" (22 per cent) or "very good" (21
per cent). "Nepal Contemporary Political Situation III",
Interdisciplinary Analysts, Kathmandu, September 2006.
Only the lower house, the House of Representatives, was
reinstated. Strictly speaking, the 1990 constitution defines the
lower house, upper house and the king collectively as
parliament. The eighteen remaining members of the upper
house (the 60-seat National Assembly, one-third of whose
members are elected each two years for six-year terms) were
given no role, though they still collect allowances. On the
April movement and the restoration of parliament, see Crisis
Group Report, From People Power to Peace, op. cit.; on
constitutional definitions, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°99,
Towards a Lasting Peace in Nepal: The Constitutional Issues,
15 June 2005. The composition of the House of
Representatives (elected in May 1999) is: NC 71 seats, UML
68, NC(D) 40, RPP 11, NSP 3, NSP(AD) 2, Janamorcha
Nepal 3, Sanyukta Janamorcha Nepal 3 and NWPP 1.
6 A twenty-member cabinet was formed on 2 May 2006 with
seven NC members, six UML, four NC-D and one ULF, NSP
and Janamorcha Nepal. NC Forest and Soil Conservation
Minister Gopal Rai was killed in a helicopter crash in October
2006.
7 The Maoists insist that SPA leaders had informally assured
them that a reinstated parliament would only be active for
weeks - long enough to set in motion the constituent
assembly election process. Crisis Group interview, Maoist
leader, Kathmandu, October 2006.
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 3
country according to the road map of the agitating
seven-party alliance".8 The Maoists were not the only
ones to challenge the parliament's self-declared supremacy,
announced in an 18 May proclamation.9 The judiciary
was also reluctant to endorse it without question, a full
bench ofthe Supreme Court deciding on 9 June against
accepting reappointment or retaking oaths under
instruction from parliament. "Such reappointment
would hurt the image of independent judiciary even at
the international level", commented Chief Justice Dilip
Kumar Poudel.10 The court is also considering a
privately-filed writ challenging the legality of the May
parliamentary proclamation (see below).11
The popular mandate granted by the April movement is
hard to define: all that can be said with some confidence
is that people at large were dissatisfied with royal rule,
wanted the parties and Maoists to work together to end
the conflict and were impatient for the chance to have
their own say rather than remaining mute spectators.
But the parties and Maoists had encouraged crowds to
adopt their slogans and subsequently argued that the
movement had endorsed their specific goals. The
newly-constituted government claimed it had public
backing for moving ahead with proclamations and
legislation that went far beyond the primary task of
resolving the conflict. The Maoists, supported by some
other parties and civil society groups, insisted that the
protests had demanded an immediate transition to a
republic. Neither side wanted to wait for a genuine
electoral mandate to pursue its policies.
"Proclamation to the Nation from His Majesty King
Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev", 24 April 2006, available
at http://nepalmonarchy.gov.np. See Crisis Group Report,
From People Power to Peace, op. cit., for analysis.
9 The May proclamation asserted parliamentary sovereignly and
amended legislative, executive, military and palace-related
provisions accordingly. On 4 Jury 2006,50 further articles and 32
sub-articles of the 1990 Constitution were amended. The
proclamation is available at www.nepalnews.com/archive/2006/
may/may 19/hor_proclamationphp.
10 "Reappointment of judges would tarnish independence of
judiciary, says CJ", nepalnews.com, 16 October 2006. A
nationwide conference of judges was called "to maintain
judicial independence" but later cancelled when some judges
objected.
11 The Supreme Court has rejected a writ challenging the
constitutionality of the king's 24 April 2006 proclamation,
ruling that the restoration of parliament was justified by the
"theory of necessity". "Sarvocchadwara pratinidhi sabha
ghoshanama prashna", Kantipur, 23 September 2006. The
government has similarly argued that as the parliamentary
proclamation is a political matter, it cannot be questioned on
legal grounds. "Ghoshanako sambaidhanik parikchan garna
mildaina", Nepal Samacharpatra, 25 November 2006.
Parliament gave notice of its ambitions with its bold
May proclamation that started reshaping national
institutions, for example by declaring Nepal a secular
state. In the following seven months it passed no less
than 31 acts, with parliamentary committees
considering a dozen more bills - a more prolific
legislative burst than under any post-1990
administration. Committees have played a more
substantive role than plenaries, which have engaged in
little debate and tended simply to endorse government
decisions in the absence of a real opposition.12 The state
affairs committee was heavily involved in finalising the
new Army Act; while the public accounts and natural
resources committees traced and publicised details of
the king's hidden properties. However, a 21-member
parliamentary ceasefire-monitoring committee, formed
on 30 May under Speaker Subash Nembang, was
inactive.
B.      A FUNCTIONAL GOVERNMENT?
The government followed parliament's example by
confidently broadcasting a solid sense of its legitimacy
and scope to act. Envisaged as a short-lived transitional
administration, it embarked on longer-term development
plans and even treaty negotiations as if it were a full-
fledged government.13 Ministers drew up an ambitious
budget, called on donors to pour in funds and set off on
foreign trips. Veteran Congress leader G.P. Koirala
became prime minister for the fourth time, the obvious
choice as the undisputed leader of the SPA and the
Maoists' preferred negotiating partner.
The new government drew strength from the mood of
euphoria at the success ofthe people's movement and
was boosted by international backing, especially from
crucial states such as India and the U.S. However, it
faced major challenges. Most importantly, it had even
less reach than its royal predecessor, with most of the
countryside in administrative limbo and no effective
structures to deliver services or implement policies.
Koirala, an octogenarian in fragile health, kept a firm
grip on the peace process but had less time to
coordinate a sometimes fractious cabinet or to lead
normal policy discussions.14 The celebratory mood in
Parliament has debated neither the peace accord nor, so far,
the provisions ofthe interim constitution.
13 Home Minister JKrishna Sitaula was scheduled to sign a
new extradition treaty with India in New Delhi in October
2006 but cancelled the visit due to Maoist objections.
14 Most meetings have been short and at his residence; discussion
has been severely curtailed. "Senako kura aaunasath koirala
swan-swan", Jana Aastha, 29 November 2006.
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 4
Kathmandu and among top party leaders contributed to
the perceived lack of urgency in pursuing peace talks
and limited concern for maintaining public buy-in.
April's political upheaval delivered a measurably
increased sense of security to ordinary people but did
not transform daily life in other areas.15 Poorly thought
out moves - such as a significant hike in petroleum
product prices sprung on a volatile public in August -
prompted discontent and a fear that the parties' promise
to improve on past behaviour was hollow. The petrol
issue led to two days of serious disturbances in the
capital; before the government formally backed down,
individual leaders of each SPA party disavowed the
decision they were collectively responsible for. The
sense of disarray did not inspire confidence that the
SPA would find the necessary unity and discipline to
restore rule of law and see through negotiations.
Some inter-party tension was to be expected. It was
natural that the unity in the face of royal rule would not
hold indefinitely. Hard bargaining over the allocation of
posts delayed the formation of a full cabinet and led to
an unseemly public row over the parliamentary
speakership;16 plans to replace palace-appointed
ambassadors who had been recalled after April were
also stymied;17 constitutional bodies were left without
members.18 UML leaders have repeatedly accused
Koirala of taking unilateral decisions and have threatened
to leave the government. But staying in power and
retaining control over ministries affords the SPA the
advantages of an incumbent government: the chance to
divert some funds to party coffers, distribute jobs to
15 Some 88 per cent of one survey's respondents reported
feeling safer than before April; only 1 per cent felt less safe.
"Nepal Contemporary Political Situation III", op. cit.
16 The UML claimed the speaker's post in return for allowing
NC to take the prime ministership and key ministries. IJiis
displaced the natural candidate, Deputy Speaker Chitra Lekha
Yadav of NC(D), who had also gained public support as a
capable and articulate Madhesi woman.
17 Inter-party tension has been particularly acute over
ambassadorial appointments. The UML runs the foreign
ministry but envoys are appointed by the prime minister;
more than a dozen embassies have been without a head since
May 2006. This was one of the reasons for Nepal's poor
campaign for a UN Security Council seat in 2006 (it was
easily defeated by Indonesia).
18 Donors sent a delegation of ambassadors to urge the prime
minister to make appointments to the National Human Rights
Commission, National Women's Commission and Dalit
Commission and other such agencies, saying their work had
in effect been suspended. "Donors urge govt to make
appointments in key state agencies", nepalnews.com, 8
December 2006.
their supporters and tinker with appointments in the
civil service and judiciary.19
Still, the parliament and government were unanimous
on two key political priorities:
Clipping the king's wings. Parliament curtailed the
king's privileges and abruptly ended the concept of
king-in-parliament. Instead of royal assent, new acts are
now approved by the speaker of the House of
Representatives. Parliament also took over the right to
determine royal succession; abolished the principle of
male primogeniture; made the king's property and
income subject to tax and his acts subject to question in
parliament and court; abolished the Rajparishad (royal
council) and though as yet only formally brought the
palace secretariat within the mainstream civil service.
The first steps to loosen royal control ofthe army were
also taken, with a change in name and supreme
commander and a revised Army Act.20 These steps were
not inspired by republican zeal but by the practical
imperative to reduce the risks of a new royal coup.
Several were more cosmetic than substantive; viewed
together they suggest the shape that Koirala's concept
of "ceremonial monarchy" might take.21
Undercutting the Maoist agenda. Parliamentary
enthusiasm for more radical socio-economic change -
including pre-empting the envisaged constituent assembly
(CA) - reflected a belated attempt to co-opt and neutralise
parts of the Maoist agenda. Major decisions on long-
term issues included tackling the army-palace relationship;
the declaration of a secular state and the end of
untouchability; and reserving one third of state jobs for
women.
For example, the UML's JKathmandu district deputy secretary,
Nirmal Kuinkel, was appointed member-secretary of the
Pashupati Area Development Fund in November 2006. Party
officials privately admit that government positions are useful for
boosting seriously depleted party funds. Crisis Group interview,
UML headquarters, JKathmandu, November 2006.
20 In line with the parliamentary proclamation, multiple
amendments to the Army Act (1959) were passed on 22
September 2006. The revisions were the subject of lengthy
committee debates in which army representatives secured
important concessions.
21 There is no common Nepali equivalent for the English term
"ceremonial" and no clear conceptual separation between a
"constitutional" and a "ceremonial" monarchy; the two terms
largely overlap. Koirala appears to have in mind a constitutional
monarch with no residual political powers and a purely symbolic
role as head of state. See Ameet Dhakal, "Koirala advocates
ceremonial monarchy", The Hindu, 15 June 2006.
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C.       CONTESTED COUNTRY
Political manoeuvring in Kathmandu took place against
a background of lawlessness and confusion across most
of the country. Despite poor monitoring mechanisms,
the ceasefire held.22 But re-establishing anything like
normal governance was hampered by Kathmandu's
weakness and Maoist intransigence. The rebels were
happier to move into any vacant political space than to
share power.
An immediate characteristic ofthe transitional period -
one much highlighted by the press - was increased
criminality in cities, especially Kathmandu. The 19
August protests against the petrol price hike were
violent and unhindered by the police: dozens of petrol
pumps, shops, restaurants and vehicles were vandalised
while angry mobs killed a restaurant owner and paraded
two female restaurant workers naked in the street in
broad daylight. Little of this urban crime was politically
motivated; the robberies and kidnappings were largely
carried out by established criminal networks taking
advantage ofthe policing vacuum.
Amid mounting public concern in the capital, the
government announced plans for a new metropolitan
police but this will do little to address the general
demoralisation of a national force which bore the brunt
of the insurgency, was forced to abandon most of its
posts and was then placed under army command.23 The
government re-established 53 police units in urban areas
after April but the Maoists resisted police deployment
along highways and in rural areas.24 In many instances
the police accepted de facto Maoist dominance and in
effect recognised the rebels as a parallel authority. The
twin responsibilities of Krishna Sitaula as home
minister and chief SPA peace negotiator made him
reluctant to take strong action to restore order.
The ceasefire was tenuously defined and monitored,
although both sides refrained from military activity. The
Maoists declared a three-month unilateral ceasefire
immediately after the April movement and extended it; the
government responded with an indefinite ceasefire. On 26
May both sides signed a 25-point code of conduct and formed
a 31-member national monitoring committee, headed by
former election commissioner Birendra Prasad Mishra.
However, a formal bilateral ceasefire came only with the
November peace accord.
23 Of the 1,968 police posts before the conflict, 1,168 had
been abandoned.
24 Kiran Nepal, "Prahari chhafna, kanun-vyavastha shunya",
Himal Khabarpatrika, 1 September 2006.
While the Maoists negotiated in the capital, they sought
to demonstrate that their "new regime" of local
government was not just functional but in many ways
stronger than ever. They expanded their limited
administrative activities - partly by being more active in
district headquarters, partly by moving into space
vacated by indecisive and weak state entities. This
occupation of space was more than metaphorical: in
several places the Maoists took over government
buildings, including abandoned police stations, and used
them as offices or militia bases.25 The confused
environment enabled them to extend such practices
beyond the countryside. Before being cantoned, their
fighters had set up highway checkposts to monitor
vehicles and collect money; political workers shifted
from the villages to open offices in towns and cities.
Maoist violence did decrease after the ceasefire but
other intimidating behaviour appears to have increased,
at least in the period before the CPA.26 The killings
which took place differed from the targeted "annihilation"
that was a trademark during the war. Most were due to
torture in Maoist "people's government" custody: in the
first five months ofthe post-April ceasefire, almost 200
people were arrested by the rebels, although most were
subsequently released.27 Local Maoists may feel they
have free rein until their "people's governments" are
dissolved.28
The Maoist militias are distinct from their main, highly
centralised, military force, the People's Liberation Army
(PLA). Command of the militias is in the hands of local party
committees; another difference is that their recruits, who
function as a rudimentary police force, do not move around
the country and generally serve in their own home areas.
They are poorly armed and generally without uniform but as a
sizeable force (the Maoists claim 100,000) across the country,
they are in many ways the most active Maoist presence at
village level.
26 From April to September 2006 the Maoists were directly or
indirectly responsible for at least twelve killings. "Human
rights abuses by the CPN-M", Office of the High
Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Kathmandu,
September 2006. INSEC, a human rights organisation, gives a
figure of 21 for the 24 April-8 October 2006 period. The state
was responsible for 23 killings, available at
www.inseconUne.org/hrvdata/Killingsafter20060424.pdf.
27 From 26 April 2006, when the informal bilateral ceasefire
began, to 25 September 2006; the Maoists "arrested" around
184 people across the country on various charges. "Human
rights abuses by the CPN-M', op. cit.
28 The CPA (Article 10.1) commits all parties "not to operate
parallel or any form of structure in any areas of the state or
government structure" after forming the interim government.
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Extortion, the major source for the some $30 million the
Maoists say they need annually to maintain basic
activities, increased more dramatically.29 Despite
promising not to force donations, it went up for a
number of reasons. First, cadres used to raising cash this
way could not resist the new opportunities afforded by
post-April lawlessness. Secondly, a series of conventions
by student, women, peasant, teacher and other affiliated
organisations meant that their members needed to raise
money. Thirdly, there appears to have been a
calculation that extortion would soon have to end, and it
was important to build up funds to see the movement
through the remainder of the peace process and the
election campaign. Fourthly, urban activity was more
expensive, both for individual cadres and institutionally,
as were the new demands of mass meetings and other
political work. Following the CPA, initial reports
suggest that extortion has decreased but it is too early to
judge this trend.
III.    THE TALKS
A.       A ROCKY START
Although the parties and Maoists had worked alongside
each other in the April movement, once it succeeded,
their talks got off to a bad start. The Maoists' preferred
route of a roundtable conference had been trumped by
the king accepting the SPA's demand to restore the old
parliament, prompting fears that they were being
conspired against. They were also annoyed that the SPA
was seeking to claim sole leadership of the movement,
since they felt their own role had been at least as
important.30 The Maoists called for the movement to
continue but the lack of public response persuaded them
to proceed with negotiations. A special central committee
meeting in Punjab, India, in early May 2006 agreed a
ten-point roadmap for peace talks.31 Both sides formed
three-member negotiation teams32 and signed a 25-point
ceasefire code of conduct on 26 May.33
1.       Eight-point agreement
The dynamics in the early weeks were not encouraging.
While the Maoists were busy with mass meetings
pushing their agenda to new audiences, parliament had
started taking decisions on longer-term issues without
consulting them. Amid hints of public frustration at the
lack of movement and Maoist complaints that the
government was blocking the process, Koirala sent top
negotiators Krishna Sitaula and Shekhar Koirala to
meet personally with the Maoist leader, Prachanda.34
These discussions bore fruit: five days later, on 16 June,
According to Maoist leader Dev Gurung, the PLA's annual
expense is more than one billion Nepalese rupees (some $15
million) and the regional "people's governments" require a
similar budget. Interview, Samaya, 14 September 2006.
See, Crisis Group Report, From People Power to Peace,
op. cit.
31 The Maoist roadmap laid down a preferred sequence:
declaration of ceasefire; adoption of code of conduct;
formation of a dialogue team; release of all political prisoners;
initiation of dialogue; dissolution of old parliament,
constitution and government; adoption of an interim
constitution and formation of interim government through an
all-party conference; demarcation of new electoral
constituencies; constituent assembly elections supervised by a
reliable third party; and restructuring of PLA and Nepal Army
as per the popular mandate expressed through the election.
Prachanda, press statement, 13 May 2006.
32 The government team is led by Home Minister JKrishna
Prasad Sitaula and includes Pradip Gyawali and Ramesh
Lekhak; the Maoist team led by spokesman JKrishna Bahadur
Mahara includes Dev Gurung and Dinanath Sharma.
33 See Appendix B for a chronology ofthe peace process.
34 This meeting took place at Siklesh in Kaski district on 11
June 2006.
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Prachanda made his first open appearance in
Kathmandu, at the prime minister's official residence to
sign an eight-point agreement with the SPA.
This agreement was a crucial basis for the subsequent
negotiations.35 Both sides agreed to request the UN to
monitor arms and both armies; they also decided to
dissolve the parliament and the "people's governments"
in order to establish an interim legislature. That the deal
was done in an atmosphere of goodwill made up for the
acrimony of the preceding weeks. That it had been
negotiated behind the scenes and only announced once
both sides were ready also implied some sophistication
in managing the process and learning from past
procedural mistakes.
However, the content of the agreement and the
circumstances of its signing raised serious concerns
about the SPA's readiness to do business with the
Maoists. Prachanda gave a press conference at the
prime minister's residence (his first public address after
more than two decades underground), impressing star-
struck journalists and stealing the limelight from SPA
participants such as UML General Secretary Madhav
Kumar Nepal and NC(D) President Sher Bahadur
Deuba.36 Politicians who were not involved in the
negotiations, and many other observers felt the deal
favoured the Maoists. Younger SPA leaders questioned
the commitment to "dissolve the House of Representatives
through consensus after making alternative arrangement"
and suggested this "mistake" be corrected.37
It transpired that the agreement had been hastily
finalised without careful consideration by the SPA.38
Gradually the signatories - the top party leaders, Koirala,
Nepal, Deuba, Amik Sherchan and Narayan Man
Bijukchhe - hinted that they were also unhappy the
Maoists had done so well. Under internal and external
pressure, Prime Minister Koirala unilaterally added a
major rider: that parliament could not be dissolved until
the Maoists' arms were dealt with.39 In itself this was an
eminently  reasonable  condition  but  reneging  on  a
An unofficial translation of the agreement is available at
www.kantipuronlfne.com/kolnews.php?&nid=76803.
36 Prime Minister Koirala was absent, though the press
conference was held at his residence.
37 Radheshyam Adhikari, "Pratinidhi sabha bighatanko
auchitya", Kantipur, 20 June 2006.
38 One of Koirala's confidants later implied that he gave the
Maoists such favourable terms because he was seriously ill
and needed to spend time on oxygen. Crisis Group interview,
Kathmandu, October 2006.
39 Koirala made this statement during an interview with state-run
Nepal Television See "Nepal Parliament won't be dissolved until
Maoists arms are managed", www.samudaya.org, 4 August 2006.
signed deal undermined trust; it no longer looked as if
the interim constitution would be ready within a
fortnight, as both sides had announced.40
2.       Engaging the UN
The plan to request UN assistance was not derailed but
it had to be translated into an official letter to the
Secretary-General specifying what help was required.
The government tried to pre-empt difficult discussions
by drafting the letter itself, and Koirala sent it on 2 July
without consulting the Maoists. While the latter had
only agreed to have their weapons monitored, the prime
minister requested help with "decommissioning". This
certainly reflected SPA thinking that the Maoists should
give up their arms completely before joining an interim
government - but went far beyond what had been
negotiated.41
Maoist cries of conspiracy were fuelled by secretive
government behaviour. The letter was not published for
three weeks and then only under pressure from a
parliamentary committee. Once its content was confirmed,
Prachanda condemned it and wrote separately to the UN
on 24 July to express his "strong protest and disagreement
over certain crucial points of the government letter".42
This unnecessary controversy exacerbated mutual lack
of trust.
At a public function on 7 August, one of the senior
Maoist leaders, Baburam Bhattarai, accused Koirala of
becoming the main obstacle to peace.43 Although his
language suggested the dialogue was in serious
jeopardy, both sides were playing a more measured
40 An Interim Constitution Drafting Committee was
established on 16 June 2006 under former Supreme Court
Judge Laxman Aryal. Initially, it had only six members:
Laxman Aryal, Harihar Dahal, Sindhunath Jpyakurel,
Shambhu Thapa, Mahadev Yadav and KJiimlal Devkota.
Following criticism of its exclusiveness, ten were added on 22
June. The committee - whose members were balanced to
represent party divisions - could not agree key issues and the
resulting draft (replete with blank spaces and alternative
proposals) was unusable. A member described it as an essay
rather than a draft constitution. Interview with Shambhu
Thapa Interim Constitution Drafting Committee member and
Nepal Bar Association chairman, BBC World Service Nepali
service, 24 August 2006.
41 See Shyam Shrestha, "Hatiyarma adkieko shanti varta",
Mulyankan, August 2006, for an analysis of the arms debate
from an independent leftist perspective.
42 Prachanda "Letter to the UN Secretary-General", 24 July
2006, available at www.cpnm.org.
43 "Koirala's remarks may be aimed at spoiling peace
negotiations: Dr Bhattarai", nepalnews.com, 7 August 2006.
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game than frenzied media reports suggested. Taking the
criticism as only a pressure tactic, Koirala invited
Prachanda to his residence for lengthy informal discussions.
Having seen the risks of providing spoilers with
ammunition, they reaffirmed a desire to bring the
process back on track.44 A UN assessment mission headed
by Staffan de Mistura had also impressed upon both
sides the urgency of agreeing a joint approach if they
wished to make the most of international assistance. A
new five-point letter (sent in parallel copies; see below)
to the UN dropped reference to decommissioning and
more accurately reflected their understanding.
3.       Mutual suspicion
The pattern of delays, recriminations, suspicion and
eventual resolution was natural in the circumstances.
The Maoists wanted to move quickly: they were better
prepared, worried that delays would frustrate their
cadres and keen to push ahead with interim institutions
and elections while voters were still radicalised by the
spirit of the April movement. The parties saw things
differently: they needed time to put their house in order,
prepare negotiating positions and plan for contesting
elections. They were also busy (at least some of the
time) trying to run the country. To the Maoists, each
delay signalled conspiracy.45 Occasionally this may
have been true but more often the stalling was down to
disorganisation and divergent priorities.
Maoist cadres were becoming restive, and their public
threats of an "October revolution" were taken literally
by many observers. At a central committee meeting in
September held not far from Kathmandu,46 all their
army's divisional commanders and commissars
participated as observers and presented situation
reports. The six-day session saw serious debate and
concluded that if peace talks were blocked, the only
remaining option was revolt.47 The meeting appointed a
new ten-member team under Prachanda to pursue the
negotiations seriously.48 But it also drafted plans for a
44 Crisis Group interviews, government and Maoist sources,
Kathmandu, October-November 2006.
45 Crisis Group interview, Maoist leader, Kathmandu,
September 2006.
46 The meeting was held at Kami Danda in Kavre district.
47 Crisis Group interviews, Maoist sources, Kathmandu,
September 2006.
48 Besides Prachanda, the other members are Baburam
Bhattarai, Ram Bahadur Thapa, Krishna Bahadur Mahara,
Dev Gurung, Nanda Kishor J?un, Dinanath Sharma, Pampha
Bhusal, Matrika Yadav and KJiadga Bahadur Bishwokarma.
They did not participate as a full team but added to the
capacity ofthe original three-member group.
two-phase mass movement: first demonstrations to
bring pressure for progress in the talks; if that failed,
then a decisive republican movement.
Briefings from the security forces suggested the cabinet
should take the threatened movement seriously, warning
that the Maoists had plans to attack key locations in the
capital and target ministers.49 When the government
received information that hundreds of Maoist military
cadres (PLA) had entered the Kathmandu valley shortly
after the central committee meeting50 it rapidly
deployed large numbers of both the civil police and the
armed police on street patrols.51 Prachanda cancelled a
public appearance and went underground. On 13
September, the Maoists called a nationwide shutdown,
following rumours that the Nepalese Army (NA) was
transporting Indian weapons to Kathmandu. A national
ceasefire monitoring team cleared the suspect vehicles,
and the Maoists lifted their shutdown after four tense
hours.52 They had not proved government deception but
they had very publicly flexed their muscles and
demonstrated their ability to start and stop coordinated
action across the country with speed and discipline.
B.    The Sticking Points
Not surprisingly, this troubled period saw a breakdown
in communication between Koirala and Prachanda. The
Maoists were increasingly convinced that the prime
minister was in league with the palace and army;53 the
SPA was alarmed at Maoist sabre-rattling and nurtured
growing doubts over their commitment to peace. With
talks in effect suspended there was no chance to address
the corrosive lack of trust or the remaining substantive
issues. The government continued to press for more
steps towards disarmament; the Maoists countered by
insisting  that the  monarchy had to  be  dealt with
Crisis Group interviews, security officials, Kathmandu,
September 2006; and documents in the possession of Crisis
Group.
50 Crisis Group interviews, security officials, Kathmandu,
September 2006.
51 There are two distinct police forces: the civil Nepal Police
and the Armed Police Force (APF), which was established in
January 2001 (before the army was deployed) to boost the
state's counterinsurgency capacity.
52 Prachanda, press statement, 13 September 2006.
53 Crisis Group interviews, Maoist sources, Kathmandu,
September 2006. Prachanda accused outsiders of interference,
warning that "Foreigners are trying to dictate the present talks
and the government isn't able to decide itself'. "Interview
with Prachanda", Pratyakraman, August 2006.
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immediately. The shape of interim institutions was a
further bone of contention.
1. Arms management
The SPA had good reasons to identify the issue of
Maoist weapons as a top priority. Apart from the
conceptual difficulty of imagining a joint government
controlling two separate armed forces, Maoist retention
of arms could compromise free and fair elections (even
ifthe weapons were under lock and key) and keep open
the war option should the process not go their way.
Government negotiators were well aware that signs of
weakness in baigairiing would further alienate important
constituencies with serious concerns about Maoist
intentions, not least the army and some intemational
backers.
The Maoists saw the question differently. Their arms
were not only an integral part of their political culture
but a practical defence in the uncertain environment of
the talks while the Nepalese Army retained its full
capacity.54 They believed that the need to separate arms
from politics sequentially, in step with political progress
that reinforced confidence, had been confirmed in
earlier agreements, and they insisted that UN monitoring
would be sufficient to neutralise their weapons during
the election campaign.
Beyond this, the Maoists reminded the government that
successful disarmament would only be possible with
agreement on the final stage of restmcturing the national
army and incorporating Maoist fighters. They felt that
giving up any weapons before this would amount to
surrender oftheir main bargaining chip.55
2. The monarchy
All parties agreed that the future role of the monarchy
was a central issue of great public concern but they had
differing views on both the outcome and the decision
making process. Some mainstream parties had become
more radical but the Maoists were still the most committed
republicans; Congress and others beyond the SPA sought
to keep open the possibility of a ceremonial institution.
For the Maoists, the effort to declare a republic
immediately through the new interim constitution was
based partly on long-term analysis and partly on tactical
considerations. They believed that deferring the issue
could save the king, even if elections delivered a
republican mandate - their assessment has long been
that such a fundamental change would have to be part
of a sudden, probably violent, transition rather than the
result of parliamentary debate. More immediately, their
proposed broader republican front was meant to give
the impression of maintaining the April movement's
momentum and to pressure their opponents to make
concessions on arms.56
Despite the widely divergent views, the fact that neither
side wanted to derail the entire process over this issue
meant that the toughest bargaining was over modalities.
The Maoists had two fallback negotiating positions: to
suspend the monarchy in the run-up to the elections,
thus limiting its power to meddle; and to decide its fate
in a separate referendum - a UML proposal also supported
by the NC(D).57 The Maoists reportedly forged a joint
position with those parties.58 But in the face of strong
Congress resistance - Koirala arguing that a referendum
could prompt a powerful royalist campaign59 - and
concessions on the arms agenda, the Maoists were
happy to drop the idea, albeit at the cost of UML ill-
feeling.60
3.       Interim institutions
Haggling over interim institutions was primarily a
matter of power politics. For the Maoists the reinstated
parliament was the "major obstacle for peace and
progress";61 for the SPA it was their nationally and
internationally recognised source of legitimacy. SPA
leaders  worried that dissolving  it would  create  a
The Maoists have deep-seated concerns about possible
Nepalese Army action if their own forces are disarmed before
a full settlement; they still warn of a possible royal or military
coup and took the appointment of Rookmangad Katwal,
widely seen as a hardliner, as the new army chief as a
worrying signal. Crisis Group interview, senior Maoist leader,
Kathmandu, September 2006.
55 The Maoists argued that the usual international
Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR)
models are unsuited to Nepal and proposed what they called a
Camping, Monitoring and Restructuring (CMR) procedure
instead. Ananta, "Hatiyar vyavasthapanko bahas ra rajnitik
nikasbare", Sanshleshan, 20 August 2006.
Crisis   Group   interview,  Maoist  source,  Kathmandu,
November 2006.
57 It was argued that it was only fair to decide an issue of such
wide interest by popular vote.
58 Crisis Group interview, UML central committee member,
Kathmandu, September 2006. Prachanda met the UML and
NC(D) on 23 September 2006.
59 Crisis Group interview, NC leader close to the prime
minister, Kathmandu, November 2006.
60 "Interview with Madhav Kumar Nepal", Budhabar, 15
November 2006.
61 "Interview with Prachanda", Pratyakraman, August 2006.
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dangerous power vacuum which rebels or royalists
could exploit; some were simply keen to extend the
comfortable new status quo.
Parties had to look at not only the bigger picture but
also the concerns of their parliamentarians (MPs) and
other leaders who would expect to be accommodated
within new structures. The eight-point agreement was
silent on the future of existing MPs but once it was
agreed their positions would continue in any interim
legislature, their concerns were assuaged. The make-up
of new members was harder to agree.
The Maoists retained the objectives of their original
proposal for a Broader National Political Conference
composed one-third each by SPA, Maoist and civil
society representatives. This was never going to be
acceptable to the mainstream parties: it suggested that
they were only on a par with the Maoists, and many
suspected the civil society appointments would give the
body a dangerously radical tint. Congress proposed that
the interim legislature include current MPs, upper house
members and individuals selected through political
consensus; the NC(D)'s "inclusive" concept was closer
to the Maoist proposal.62
C.      BACK ON TRACK
While the talks were dogged by public bad blood and
seemingly intractable substantive differences, discrete
efforts kept the sides on speaking terms. Even as Prime
Minister Koirala traded accusations with Prachanda he
gave his key negotiators, Krishna Sitaula and Shekhar
Koirala, space to keep channels open. The main
obstacle was internal Congress politics. Sitaula, who
had emerged as a key player only since the royal coup,
attracted jealousy and was criticised for weak
performance as home minister. Shekhar Koirala
similarly lacked broad support within the party but had
prospered as the prime minister's nephew and
confidant. Both men had earned their spurs representing
G.P. Koirala in the November 2005 negotiation of the
twelve-point agreement in New Delhi.
Behind a screen of public criticisms of the SPA, the
Maoists were also playing a subtle hand. Their chief
negotiator, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, had good links
with his government counterparts. Like them he had
been involved in the SPA-Maoist dialogue since the
These proposals were submitted to the Interim Constitution
Drafting Committee. See "Situation Update IV", Conflict
Study Centre, Kathmandu, 17 August 2006, for a convenient
breakdown ofthe various party proposals.
earliest post-coup encounters in New Delhi. The
personal trust and practical experience built up since
then remained at the core of the process even after the
end of royal rule. Baburam Bhattarai presented himself
as a hardliner insisting on the Maoist bottom line but he
kept up good rapport with Madhav Kumar Nepal and
other mainstream left leaders.
The most worrying period came in early September,
when mistrust reached a peak, and formal engagement
was moribund. Both sides realised that the top-down
nature of the process demanded the direct participation
of their senior leaders. Koirala and Prachanda on 17
September concluded that a summit meeting was
essential. In keeping with the tradition of over-optimistic
deadlines, they decided to gamer public goodwill by
announcing that this would happen before the major
Dasain festival just a week away - a deadline they
promptly missed.
The summit talks finally got underway on 8 October
2006, following several rounds of informal talks. After
a week, the stop-start meetings - with breaks for the
parties to consult - had only lead to agreement to
schedule constituent assembly elections for June 2007.
The announcement was staged to give an impression of
progress: the dates had in fact been agreed in earlier
informal discussions. Other sticking points remained.
Consensus ultimately depended on Koirala and Prachanda
reaching face-to-face agreement. They held more than a
dozen informal meetings before the talks formally
resumed on 8 November, and these were the basis for
the understanding announced at midnight that night.63
When Madhav Kumar Nepal objected, Koirala
threatened that he and Prachanda could move ahead on
their own ifthe UML would not cooperate.64
The summit understanding repeated the commitment to
hold elections by June 2007 and paved the way for a
fuller deal by agreeing key issues. It smoothed over the
misunderstanding ofthe preceding months by reiterating
that all past agreements would be implemented, not
renegotiated. It agreed a rough plan for managing arms
(settling the number of cantonments and a locking
system), the scope ofthe interim constitution (though
According to an insider, non-Congress SPA leaders and
even the facilitators were left with little to do during the
summit talks. Biswadeep Pande, "Baluwatarko aitihasik rat",
Samay a, 7 December 2006.
64 Crisis Group interview, UML leader, Kathmandu,
November 2006. The UML salvaged pride by insisting a note
of dissent stating its preference for a referendum on the
monarchy and a fully proportional electoral system be added
to the understanding.
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not its crucial details) and a program to assist conflict
victims and start a return to normality across the
country.
The outline agreement on arms management was the
central focus of the final negotiations and the critical
issue on which each side was reluctant to give any
ground.65 The understanding laid to rest debates over
the monarchy's future by announcing that it would be
decided in the first meeting ofthe constituent assembly
by simple majority. These process issues were
complemented by a joint commitment to end all forms
of feudalism and develop a common minimum program
for socio-economic transformation and a promise to
investigate human rights violations and establish a truth
and reconciliation commission.
IV.    THE DEAL
A.    What Was Agreed
After two more weeks of difficult, but largely good-
natured, talks, the deal was ready, and negotiators
announced the CPA that formally declared an end to the
war.66 Its central elements are:
Constituent assembly. The interim cabinet will finalise
dates for constituent assembly elections with a deadline
of mid-June 2007. There will be a mixed electoral
system: 205 members to be elected on a first-past-the-
post basis from current parliamentary constituencies,
204 by proportional representation on the basis of
parties' overall share ofthe vote, and sixteen distinguished
individuals to be nominated as members by the interim
cabinet, giving a total of 425 representatives.67 Parties
have agreed to ensure representation of all regions,
Madhesis,68 women, dalits69 and other marginalised
groups when selecting candidates. All citizens eighteen
or above when the interim constitution is promulgated
will be eligible to vote. The CA is seen as not just a
constitution-making mechanism but also the vehicle for
a "historic campaign of building a new Nepal and
establishing lasting peace".70
Interim constitution. The interim constitution - an
essential prelude to formation of other interim
institutions - was scheduled for completion on 26
November71 but has proved harder to finalise than
predicted. Teams resumed intensive discussions on it as
soon as the arms management agreement was
completed and now expect to finish the task in mid-
December.72   The   primary  difficulty  has  not  been
It is no coincidence that in mid-December arms
management was still the main sticking point - although only
in terms of to what extent it had to be implemented before
forming interim institutions (for more see below).
The full text ofthe CPA is available at nepalnews.com.
67 A law will be made after consultation with the Election
Commission.
68 "Madhesi" is the term by which Tarai residents (excluding
migrants from the hills) prefer to describe themselves,
although it can also be used pejoratively.
69 "Dalit" is the term preferred by "untouchables" at the
bottom of the traditional caste hierarchy to describe
themselves.
70 CPA, Article 10.7. Much remains unclear about the
functioning of the constituent assembly. This topic will be
addressed in a subsequent Crisis Group report on
constitutional process.
71 This date was set by the 8 November government-Maoist
understanding; the Interim Constitution Drafting Committee's
original deadline was June. It submitted its draft on 25 August
(see above).
72 Government negotiators, led by Home Minister Sitaula,
include ministers Pradeep Gyawali and Ramesh Lekhak and
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agreeing the constitution itself but the fact that its
completion would then demand the prompt formation
of interim bodies - something that Prime Minister
Koirala, and some in the international community, do
not want to proceed until the issue of how to manage
Maoist weapons is definitively resolved, and the
weapons themselves are under solid UN supervision.
Interim legislature. The 330-member interim legislature
that brings in the Maoists will be an expanded form ofthe
current House of Representatives. That body will
formally be dissolved but all sitting MPs (apart from
those opposed to the April movement) and a handful of
members from the upper house will fill 209 seats.73 The
Maoists will have 73 seats, while 48 are to be allocated
to representatives of affiliated political organisations
and professional bodies, oppressed ethnic communities
and regions and political personalities on the basis of
mutual understanding between all parties.74 Victims of
the Maoists have also demanded representation.
Interim government. The interim legislature will elect
a prime minister, who will form an SPA-Maoist cabinet
to take responsibility for the remainder of the peace
process and organise the constituent assembly election.
Koirala, who is acceptable to both the SPA and the
Maoists will almost certainly remain as prime minister75
but the cabinet berths will probably be allocated in line
with the balance of power in the legislature.
Local administration and policing. The government
and the Maoists agreed that the "Nepal Police and
Armed Police Force shall give continuity to the task of
maintaining [the] legal system and law and order along
with criminal investigation" and "not to operate parallel
or any [other] form of structure in any areas".76 Interim
local bodies will be formed at district, city and village
level on the basis of mutual understanding. The Maoist
the NC's Shekhar Koirala; the Maoists are led by Baburam
Bhattarai and include Dev Gurung and KJiim Lai Devkota, a
former interim committee member.
73 Some accommodation will probably be made for the ULF,
the only member ofthe SPA that has no MPs.
74 This was originally envisaged as bringing in apolitical
figures but the seats will probably be divided between party
supporters, with the SPA using it to bring in "new faces".
75 The Maoists feel they deserve to lead the interim
government as they put the constituent assembly on the
agenda but they likely will use this question as another
bargaining chip. Crisis Group interviews, Maoist leaders,
Kathmandu, September 2006.
76 CPA, Articles 5.1.6 and 10.1.
"people's governments" and "people's courts" are to be
dissolved on the day the interim legislature is formed.77
Monarchy. As noted, its fate will be decided at the
CA's first sitting. The 8 November understanding
effectively suspended the monarchy, stating that "no
rights on state administration would remain with the
King" and confiscating much of his property.78 The
CPA endorses this although it does not use the term
"suspension" and is silent about the position of head of
state. The Maoists had pushed hard for the formal
suspension of all royal duties and control of royal
property as the best fallback position after their failure
to secure a republic immediately.79
Human rights and transitional justice. The CPA
reiterates both sides' commitment to international
humanitarian law and fundamental principles of human
rights. It proposes two commissions: a national peace
and rehabilitation commission to build peace in post-
conflict society by running relief and rehabilitation
programs for the internally displaced (IDPs) and other
victims; and a high-level truth and reconciliation
commission to investigate serious human rights
violations and crimes committed against humanity by
either the state or the Maoists. The exact scope and
composition of these commissions has not been
specified.
Management of arms and armies. The CPA and the
subsequent arms management agreement (see below)
finalised the seven cantonment sites for the Maoist
army and stipulated that arms and ammunition are to be
locked in secure stores within the cantonments. Maoist
commanders will have keys but the UN will monitor
the stores from a distance with video cameras and siren-
activating sealing devices and may carry out site
inspections. Maoist guards will be allowed to retain a
few weapons for cantonment security.80 The Nepalese
Army will put a similar number of weapons under
supervision but be allowed to carry out essential tasks
such as guarding borders, key infrastructure and VIPs.
Principles of social and economic transformation.
The parties to the CPA pledge to:
8 November 2006 understanding, paragraphs 3(c) and 7(a).
78 The property of the late King Birendra and his family is to
be brought under a government-controlled trust; other
property which Gyanendra received after coming to the
throne will be nationalised.
79 Crisis Group interview, Maoist central leader, Kathmandu,
November 2006.
80 The Maoists will retain 30 weapons for the security of each
main cantonment and fifteen for secondary cantonments.
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end the existing centralised and unitary state
system and restructure it into an inclusive,
democratic progressive system to address various
problems including that of women, Dalits,
indigenous community, Madhesis, oppressed,
ignored and minority communities, [and]
backward regions by ending prevailing class,
ethnic, linguistic, gender, cultural, religious and
regional discrimination.81
Development plans are as vague as they are ambitious,
calling for preparation of "a common development
concept that will help in socio-economic transformation
of the country and will also assist in ensuring the
country's economic prosperity in a short period of
time".82 Given the signatories' divergent perspectives, a
shared development plan is unlikely to be workable,
though there could be agreement on some practical
steps. The CPA does make significant decentralisation
of power and a federal model more likely but it leaves
the final decision to the CA (advised by a commission
on state restructuring).
B.    The Dynamics of Compromise
The CPA is not truly comprehensive. It does open the
way for a more durable ceasefire and charts the course
for the rest ofthe process but even if it ends the armed
conflict, it has deferred certain central issues. Structural
changes have yet to take place: if the political
understanding falls apart or the process is otherwise
derailed, the Maoists are prepared to start another type
of struggle, albeit not a simple resumption of "people's
war".83 As long as their armed forces remain intact and
the state security sector unreformed, there is potential
for a rapid return to conflict.
The compromises that secured the deal make good
sense but each leaves further bargaining to come:
Power-sharing. The accord effectively recognises the
Maoist PLA as a parallel army and initialises plans for
its merger into a new national army. In return the
Maoists are to give up their hold on the countryside,
dissolving their parallel administrations and allowing
the state to resume its role as the sole guarantor of law
and order. This may happen on paper but the Maoists'
ethnic and regional liberation fronts and village-based
S1 CPA Article 3.5.
82 Ibid, Article 3.12.
83 The Maoist leadership is disseminating this line to cadres in
training sessions. Crisis Group interviews, different levels of
Maoist activists, Kathmandu, October-November 2006.
militias (now also active in urban areas) may take the
place of the "people's governments".84 The peace
accord has not defined or limited their role.
The monarchy. With its fate to be decided by a simple
majority in the constituent assembly, attention will shift
to that body's possible dynamics. No party is likely to
have an absolute majority and thus be sure ofthe 213
votes needed to push through its policies. Alliance-
building (more likely on specific issues than across the
board) and pressure on individual representatives will
be the new focus of attention.
Inter-party dynamics. The deal was pushed through
by Prachanda and Koirala - effectively, but at the cost
of goodwill within the SPA. Since the referendum
controversy, the UML's distance from both the NC and
the Maoists has increased. UML General Secretary
Nepal asked: "Are the Maoists under contract to Congress
and Girija Prasad Koirala?"85 The UML leadership was
kept out of NC-Maoist discussion over the CPA, and
Nepal initially refused to read the draft when he was
summoned just before the signing ceremony.86
C.    Public Reaction and Demands for
Inclusion
The peace accord was widely welcomed, domestically
and internationally. It addresses two of the conflict's
critical elements: the Maoists' armed insurgency and
the struggle between the king and the parties in
Kathmandu. But it only tangentially addresses the third
element - the concentration of political and economic
power in the hands of small elites at the expense of
many marginalised groups. While the CPA promises
socio-economic transformation, activists (especially
from ethnic groups) have already criticised it for brushing
over the main issues. Control over the peace process has
not increased confidence; that all decisions were made
behind closed doors by a handful of Brahman men
leaves sceptics wondering if ten years of conflict has
done anything to change underlying structures.
The Maoists have six ethnic and three region-based
"liberation fronts" that are responsible for the regional
"people's governments"; the militias, equipped with very
basic arms, perform a policing role for them.
85 "Interview with Madhav Kumar Nepal", Budhabar, 15
November 2006.
86 He joined the meeting only after repeated requests from the
prime minister and other leaders. Crisis Group interview, UML
central committee member, Kathmandu, November 2006.
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In the April movement's aftermath, demonstrations
demanding rights for particular marginalised groups
featured prominently in Kathmandu. In contrast, there
were few mainstream party gatherings. The Maoists had
boosted their support by presenting themselves as the
champions of all groups excluded from power but there
is no guarantee this will translate into votes or workable
policies within a coalition. The conflict has also radicalised
activists, some of whom learned violent tactics when
co-opted by the Maoists but retain their own agenda. No
group is likely to start a separate armed uprising -
although a Maoist splinter, the JTMM, has been carrying
out violent activities in a few Tarai districts - but nor are
groups likely to accept unsatisfactory compromises.
The major issues include:
Ethnic rights. With the constituent assembly agreed,
ethnic activists - whose campaigns have been gathering
momentum since shortly after the 1990 democracy
movement - for the first time scent the real possibility
of change. Although there are a multitude of different
groups, whose specific aims are sometimes in conflict,
there is broad agreement that the priorities are a federal
state and significant job quotas for minorities. The
Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities, an umbrella
organisation, has demanded a "secular democratic
republic state" within which ethnically based autonomous
regions will have legislative, executive and judicial
authority.87 It is questionable how representative the
ethnic organisations are, and their politics is largely elite-
driven. Nevertheless they are a large potential constituency.
Regional demands. The question of regional rights is
most prominent in the Tarai plains that stretch along the
border with India. Tarai residents, who describe
themselves as Madhesis (a term that does not include
the large population of settlers from the hills), are
hardly represented in national institutions and are seen
by many hill-dwellers as not true Nepalis because of
their links to Indian communities over the border. Many
(activists claim up to four million) have been denied
citizenship, largely because of strict rules designed to
protect a hill majority. Parliament passed a citizenship
act on 26 November 2006, which rescinded the
constitutional articles that were the basis of most
restrictions.88 But not all claimants will be entitled
"Situation Update IV", Conflict Study Centre, Kathmandu,
17 August 2006. See Crisis Group Report, Towards a Lasting
Peace, op. cit, for analysis of ethnic demands for
constitutional change.
88 The NSP(AD), a member of the SPA with one cabinet
minister,   is   a   Tarai-based   regional   party   which   has
under the new law, and putting it into practice in time to
update voter lists before the elections will be extremely
challenging.89
End to caste discrimination. Parliament has
proclaimed a complete end to caste discrimination but
Nepal has a long history of such declarations (in theory,
discrimination was abolished in the 1960s), which are
rarely implemented. As with ethnic groups, the Maoists
tried to recruit and radicalise dalits (the "untouchables"
at the bottom of the caste hierarchy whom activists
claim number some four million). Dalits have certainly
improved their ability to campaign for their interests
and have forced the issue of their rights onto the
political agenda. Their chief demands are coherent and
backed by increased organisational capacity but their
voice in the upper ranks of political parties - including
the Maoists - is still limited.
Women's representation. Female political leaders and
NGO activists have been developing a more united
front to press their demand for greater political
representation and the abolition of discriminatory laws
and constitutional provisions.90 Parliament passed a
resolution on 30 May 2006 guaranteeing women 33 per
cent of all positions in state bodies until they attain
proportional participation.91 A June 2006 protest in
front of government headquarters that demanded
women's representation on the committee drafting the
interim constitution and on the parliamentary committee
monitoring the peace talks kept the issue on the agenda.
However, the May resolution has not been implemented,
and women politicians are threatening to boycott the
polls if action is not taken.92
D.    The Role of the United Nations
Until the summer of 2006, the UN had a limited role in
the search for peace. Repeated offers ofthe Secretary-
General's good offices were rebuffed (despite enthusiastic
concentrated on lobbying for resolution of the citizenship
issue.
89 The government plans to send task forces to the Tarai
districts to expedite the process but experience indicates they
will find it hard to deliver; the political and bureaucratic elites
are unlikely to embrace the more liberal dispensation
wholeheartedly.
90 Women politicians from across the political spectrum have
formed an active Inter-Party Women's Alliance (IPWA).
91 "33 per cent reservations for women", ekantipur.com, 30
May 2006.
92 "Women threaten poll boycott", The Kathmandu Post, 7
December 2006.
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public support), and there was a perception that India
would resist such involvement in its neighbourhood.
The establishment of a major human rights monitoring
mission in early 2005 started to change this picture by
demonstrating the utility of well-defined UN assistance
and allaying Indian concerns of a possible erosion of its
regional hegemony. The Maoists had long seen a need
for the UN in a peace process and promised cooperation;
this took more solid form with the November 2005
twelve-point agreement in which the SPA also endorsed
the concept.
Once the post-April government and the Maoists agreed
on inviting the UN, an assessment mission led by Staffan
de Mistura arrived promptly.93 With some boldness, de
Mistura urged the two sides to agree quickly on a
mandate if they were serious about seeking help: while
not quite an ultimatum (which the UN was in no position
to deliver), this sense of urgency spurred a more precise
consensus on what should be requested. On 9 August,
the government and the Maoists sent parallel letters to
the Secretary-General asking the UN to (i) continue its
human rights monitoring through the Office ofthe High
Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR); (ii) assist
monitoring ofthe ceasefire code of conduct; (iii) deploy
civilian monitors to verify the confinement of Maoist
combatants and weapons within designated cantonment
areas; (iv) monitor the national army to ensure it remains
in barracks and its weapons are not used; and (v)
observe the CA election in consultation with the parties.
By its own standards, the UN has moved remarkably
quickly to assist. Ian Martin, who had been heading the
successful OHCHR mission, was appointed as the
Secretary-General's Personal Representative to the
peace process and rapidly assembled a small team of
expert advisers. Although not tasked with facilitating
the peace talks, the UN's crucial role in helping develop
a workable plan for arms management put it at the heart
of one of the central political debates. This role was
technical by definition but also included a critical
diplomatic aspect.94
The arms management deal has boosted the UN's
credibility while adding to already exaggerated
expectations.   The   UN's   high  visibility   increases
De Mistura's team was in Kathmandu from 28 July to 3
August to meet political leaders and visit NA and PLA bases.
De Mistura also met Indian officials in New Delhi.
94 For example, after separate meetings with the prime
minister and Prachanda, Ian Martin briefly visited Delhi in the
third week of October to brief Indian officials and ascertain
their views. "Martin rushes to India acquires Delhi's view on
Nepal's arms mgmt", ekantipur.com, 17 October 2006.
stability but also leaves it exposed to criticism should
anything go wrong - and some politicians have already
found it convenient to pin the blame for delays on it. A
government negotiator complained informally to the
media that the peace process was being held back by
slow UN response.95 Commentators have started to
warn that the elections may be delayed due to the UN's
"bureaucratic problem".96 Deputy Prime Minister K.P.
Oli pointed to "the time needed for the United Nations
bureaucratic procedures" as a reason for slow progress.97
Still, the basic elements of a successful mission are in
place. Domestic political actors have worked well with
the UN (its longstanding relationship with the Nepalese
Army has also helped to build confidence), and it has
received the solid backing of key international players,
including India. The Security Council approved the
Secretary-General's proposals for assistance with almost
unprecedented ease, and the first monitors will arrive
soon.98 An assessment team has been dispatched to plan
a full mission;99 unless it recommends a huge presence,
funding is not likely to be a major problem, although
recruitment within tight deadlines will be challenging.100
The most important question is whether enough monitors
can be in place quickly enough to build confidence in
the run-up to elections.
Crisis Group interview, government negotiator, Kathmandu,
December 2006.
96 "Nepal peace process update: UN delays everything",
blog.comnp, 7 December 2006.
97 "Interview with DPM KP. Oli", ekantipur.com, 7 December
2006.
98 "Recruitment continues for a team of up to 35 advance
monitors to be deployed ahead of a full-fledged mission, to
monitor provisions ofthe Comprehensive Peace Agreement. We
also are proceeding with our efforts to recruit 25 electoral experts
to assist in carrying out Constituent Assembly elections",
reported the Secretary-General's spokesperson, Stephane
Dujarric. "UN assessment team to visit Nepal from Monday to
plan for full-fledged mission", DTJN, 7 December 2006. The first
monitors are likely to arrive in the second half of December,
funding is available from the ACABQ, the UN's funding
committee, which can approve up to $10 million
99 The technical assessment mission from 10-16 December
was led by Ian Martin and included members of his
Kathmandu staff and New York-based experts in political and
military affairs, logistics and public information
100 Total personnel might be as high as 1,000, including local
staff, with perhaps 150-200 monitors plus UN volunteers and
international electoral advisers. The mission will be classified
as a "special political mission"; these generally fall under the
Department of Political Affairs but can also be run by the
Department of Peacekeeping Operations. Monitors, including
civilians with military backgrounds and serving military
officers, will be unarmed and in civilian dress.
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V.     PEACE POLITICS: SAME
PLAYERS, NEW PLANS
The April movement left Nepal's main political actors
facing new scenarios and developing new tactics.
However, it changed neither the fundamental interests
the parties represent nor their political and institutional
cultures. Despite established politicians' low visibility
during the April protests, no new leaders emerged to
eclipse them.
A.       THE PARLIAMENTARY PARTIES
The SPA's seven parliamentary parties were the big
winners in April, returning to government and claiming
the lion's share ofthe credit for a movement they hardly
led.101 Still, their gains were not entirely undeserved.
When the alliance first coalesced, critics suspected it
would rapidly disintegrate; its insipid efforts to rouse
popular protest in the wake of the royal coup had
inspired little confidence. But the parties have more or
less maintained their unity (impressive by any standard,
especially their own), used risky talks with the Maoists
to deliver a workable peace deal and ultimately managed,
albeit far from single-handedly, to see through a popular
protest movement. They achieved all of this without
using force - unlike the two more extremist forces they
faced down.
If this has boosted overall morale, it has especially
burnished the reputation of Congress leader and Prime
Minister Girija Prasad Koirala. When he refused to join
the ill-fated coalition government under his rival, Sher
Bahadur Deuba, in June 2004, he was widely criticised
as the main obstacle to political consensus but creation
of the SPA, the handling of the negotiations with the
Maoists and his steering of the new government have
brought him renewed respect.
The crucial calculations the parties must now make are
how to position themselves during the next stages ofthe
peace process and how to maximise their chances in the
constituent assembly elections. Leftist parties with
populist policies face the difficulty of distancing
themselves from the Maoists; Congress under Koirala
has been much criticised for refusing to join the strident
On party motivations during the twelve-point agreement
talks, see Crisis Group Report, Nepal's New Alliance, op. cit.
For a party overview see Krishna Hachhethu, "Political
Parties of Nepal", Social Science Baha Occasional Papers 1
(Kathmandu, 2006).
republican trend but has earned itself leadership of a
broader, more conservative, block. The parties' election
plans are not yet clear but they seem confident that
traditional supporters will vote for them regardless of
Maoist intimidation and a long record of past poor
performance.
"Conservatives "
The NC is the largest parliamentary party and the
strongest conservative force. It is still seen by some -
including many of those hostile to party politics as a
whole - as the only truly democratic party in the country,
since the UML only accepted parliamentary democracy
in the aftermath of the 1990 movement. Koirala's
careful attitude toward the king (holding out the
possibility of his retaining a ceremonial role) enables
him to position himself as the protector of broader
traditional interests but leaves him open to criticism
from party activists who want a more radical line.
Koirala's nuanced position has given birth to conspiracy
theories - that he is in league with the king, army or India -
and harsh criticism from an increasingly republican
intelligentsia. However, he has moved little from his
long-standing tenets: even when allying with the
Maoists under royal rule, he steered clear of
republicanism in favour of "full democracy". He
resisted post-April efforts to form a broad republican
alliance by arguing that a system restored by the king
should not overthrow him.102 Senior Congress figures
give credence to the idea that international pressure to
retain the monarchy as a counterbalance to the Maoists
may have influenced Koirala.103 But his stance may yet
deliver party-political advantage: the country is
probably still more conservative than fervent republicans
would like to believe, and presenting himself as the
king's protector will invite financial and practical help
from royalists. At the same time, he is conscious ofthe
need to give the palace some reason to accept the
constituent assembly: to write off any chance of its
survival would be to invite a last stand by hardliners.
Still, many NC activists and district-level leaders are
influenced by republican thinking and worry that
conservative policies will be hard to sell to voters.104
Congress displayed more radical leanings when it dropped
Crisis Group interview, NC leader close to Koirala
Kathmandu, October 2006.
103 Crisis Group interviews, Nepali Congress leaders,
Kathmandu, October 2006.
104 The NC's central working committee has ordered MPs and
party leaders to canvas activists on the monarchy. "NC to send its
leaders to villages", nepalnews.com, 5 December 2006.
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the constitutional monarchy from its party statute in late
2005,105 However, anti-monarchical opinion is hardly
reflected in the central leadership, and the king's retreat
may have defused some of the republican sentiment
evident before April 2006.106 The party may ultimately
refuse to take a definitive stance or leave it to
candidates' individual judgement.107 Congress may also
struggle to keep its ethnic support base intact. While the
Maoists are touting populist slogans of autonomy and
self-determination, Congress has yet to decide whether
it will support ethnic-based regional autonomy or, more
likely, endorse an alternative federal structure.
Congress' internal politics are as murky as ever. Despite
public professions of contrition at past corruption and
poor governance, party machinery has quietly been put
back in the hands of some of the worst offenders. A
special court conveniently cleared senior leaders Khum
Bahadur Khadka and Govinda Raj Joshi of major
corruption charges on technical grounds;108 they are
reportedly playing an important role within the party,
carefully out of public view.109 Given Koirala's age, the
succession question looms ever larger. He has not
anointed an heir, and contenders are jostling for
position. Perverse as it seems, his most likely successor
is former Prime Minister Deuba, who has presided over
some of the most unhappy events in recent history and
leads a splinter party, the NC(D).110
The two parties have no fundamental differences;
disputes revolve around personalities and accommodation
of NC(D) leaders in the reunited party's top ranks.111
However, initial haste to reunite - prompted partly by
international encouragement - has cooled, both sides
preferring to defer the issue until after the formation of
interim institutions (entering the new legislature and
government separately will entitle them to more seats).112
The NC(D) also has internal divisions: its November
2006 district chairmen's conference pushed for a
republican line,113 a position also supported by prominent
leaders such as Pradip Giri, Bimalendra Nidhi, Minendra
Rijal and Prakash Man Singh.114
The small royalist parties, still largely composed of
politicians who made their name under the pre-1990
partyless Panchayat system, may find themselves in
broad alliance with Congress in opposing both Maoist
and mainstream leftists. The primary royalist party, the
Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), has normally garnered
around 10 per cent ofthe national vote but has suffered
from splits. Its most important offshoot is the Rashtriya
Janashakti Party, headed by astute former Prime
Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, which has absorbed the
tiny Prajatantrik Nepal Party of former royal minister
Keshar Bahadur Bista.115 The unrecognised RPP faction -
created under royal rule in a palace-engineered split -
limps on with a change of leader, marginalised by
events.116
Royalists have not shrunk from criticising the king.
RPP President Pashupati Shamsher Rana has bitterly
accused the monarch of splitting his party and hints that
the RPP may adopt a less palace-friendly line;117 Thapa
105 This was at its eleventh general convention, 30 August-1
September 2005; there was also debate over a republican agenda.
106 Only one central NC leader, Narahari Acharya, supports a
republic. He has started a separate campaign, assisted by
political scientist-tumed-politician Krishna Khanal and
former NC student leader Gagan Thapa; they campaigned in
western and eastern hill districts in November 2006.
107 Crisis Group interviews, NC leaders, Kathmandu,
November 2006.
108 Khadka was cleared on 15 November 2006 (the court
ruled the charge not proven); the next day, the same panel
dismissed the case against Joshi because of its "delayed
registration". Hari Bahadur Thapa and Balkrishna Basnet,
"Bhrashtachar muddama ekpachhi arko saphai", Kantipur, 17
November 2006.
109 Crisis Group interview, NC source, Kathmandu, November
2006.
110 The NC(D) split from the NC in 2002, when the NC
refused to endorse then Prime Minister Deuba's unilateral
decision to request the dissolution of parliament.
111 The NC(D)'s primary demand is for top to bottom
reunification of all party committees, thus ensuring rehabilitation
of its supporters. Top leaders also want guarantees they will not
be demoted in a reunited party. Crisis Group interviews, NC(D)
leaders, Kathmandu, November 2006.
112 Compared to possible NC successors such as Ram Chandra
Poudel or Sushil Koirala Deuba is a heavyweight, with three
terms as prime minister and good international contacts. Crisis
Group interviews, Congress leaders, Kathmandu, November
2006.
ii3 ^q ^ district presidents demand to go for democratic
republic", nepalnews.com, 16 November 2006.
114 Deuba has acknowledged this pressure and promised the
party's next general convention will settle its stance on the
monarchy: "Majority of colleagues feel that the King is no
good and should not be kept, but this subject should be settled
by general convention or national conference". "Deuba says
majority in his party want the King out", nepalnews.com, 6
December 2006.
115 "Bista's party merges into RJP", nepalnews.com, 30
November 2006.
116 Rabindra Nath Sharma, who replaced Kamal Thapa as
head of the splinter group, has found few takers for his
proposed democratic front against republicanism.
117 "Rpp not to back monarchy: RPP chief Rana", nepalnews.com,
21 September 2006; "RPP to launch nationwide campaign to
change its policy", nepalnews.com, 7 December 2006.
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was never a slavish royalist even under the Panchayat
and was one ofthe first pro-palace politicians to realise
the king's star was waning and to dress his party in
more progressive clothes. Both supported curtailing the
king's powers and have been constructive in the new
parliament, generally voting with the SPA, despite
being excluded from government and denied recognition
as an official opposition.118
"Progressives "
The April movement had a bittersweet outcome for the
mainstream leftist parties. The popular mood was more
supportive of their general approach than ever but
Congress was firmly in the SPA driving seat, and they
faced difficult choices vis-a-vis the Maoists. All on the
left, including the Maoists, are conscious that a successful
peace process is unlikely to leave room for two large
leftist parties. Jostling for control ofthe mainstream left
has begun.
The parliamentary left is dominated by the UML, which
accepted multiparty democracy in 1991 and has since
served in government as well as being the largest party
in local councils. It burnt its fingers by joining the Deuba
coalition in June 2004 and has mixed feelings about its
role in government. Ever conscious of its junior
position, it has sometimes acted as an opposition within
the cabinet, publicly criticising SPA policies and suggesting
its own approach is more principled. But it dare not be
seen to undermine unity during the peace process and
needs a stake in central power in the run-up to elections.
The parliamentary left also incorporates smaller parties
with differing interests. Janamorcha Nepal (People's
Front Nepal), the political front of CPN (Unity Centre-
Masai),119 is the most radical and close to the Maoists
on many issues apart from the use of violence; its chairman,
Amik Sherchan, is one of two deputy prime ministers. It
has been weakened by splits but still is a crucial bridge
between the Maoists and the mainstream.120 The United
Pashupati Rana has consistently argued that the RPP
should at least be accorded the role of official opposition.
"Chand, Rana discuss peace process with PM",
nepalnews.com, 13 November 2006.
119 Party leader Mohan Bikram Singh says the Unity Centre
itself will remain underground as complete democracy has
not yet been achieved. "CPN (Unity Centre-Masai) to remain
underground", nepalnews.com, 8 December 2006.
120 In the 1970s Sherchan was one of Prachanda's mentors;
his party retains close links to the Maoists and will probably
join their republican front. This relationship, long
controversial in the party, prompted its recent division into
three factions (one group led by Sherchan has one MP,
Lilamani Pokhrel; two rebel MPs, Pari Thapa and Nawaraj
Left Front is a disparate grouping of three tiny parties
without MPs, although its representative, Prabhu Narayan
Chaudhary, is the land reform minister. Its members
disagree over the republican agenda and could split on
this issue.121 The Nepal Workers and Peasants Party is
the only SPA member to have stayed out of the
government. While supporting the peace process, the
party will not join the interim government and says it
will play an opposition role in the interim legislature;122
it has been critical of various SPA policies.123
The UML's August 2006 central committee meeting
decided to campaign for a democratic republic through
the constituent assembly124 but positions within the
party are not so clear-cut. Accommodation within the
post-1990 parliamentary system has dulled the party's
formerly radical edge and led many leaders to feel
comfortable with existing institutions, including the
monarchy.125 General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal
has successfully balanced tensions between two wings:
its chief representative in the government, Deputy
Prime Minister K.P. Oli is considered right-leaning,
while a left-leaning lobby, led by Jhalanath Khanal and
Bamdev Gautam, sees advantage in an alliance with the
Maoists. Should the general secretary's comfortable
partnership with Oli weaken, he could be pushed
towards Khanal and Gautam to secure his position.126
Subedi, formed another group under Chitra Bahadur Ale; the
third group, led by Chitra Bahadur KC, has three MPs
including KC, Hari Acharya and Dila Ram Acharya.
121 ULF coordinator C.P. Mainali is allegedly against a
republic. Crisis Group interviews, ULF leaders, Kathmandu,
November 2006. The Maoists have approached Minister
Chaudhary to join their party or the proposed republican
front. Chaudhary is also the chairman of CPN (Unified
Marxist), a member ofthe ULF; its General Secretary, Bishnu
Bahadur Manandhar, resigned in October 2006 after clashing
with Chaudhary.
122 "NWPP to play oppn's role in interim govt", The
Himalayan Times, 23 November 2006.
123 NWPP chairman Bijukchhe's vote against the citizenship
bill on 26 November was the first for an SPA MP against the
government.
124 Crisis Group interview, UML central leader, Kathmandu,
September 2006.
125 For example, the UML appeared to back Koirala's
ceremonial monarchy agenda by supporting parliamentary
amendments of royal laws and regulations rather than
insisting on full suspension. Other leftist parties doubt its
commitment to republicanism. NWPP leader Narayan Man
Bijukchhe suspects the UML would abandon the republican
agenda in exchange for the prime ministership. "Vartako
sancho dillima chha", Kantipur, 23 October 2006.
126 Crisis Group interviews, UML leaders, Kathmandu,
October-November 2006.
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The UML's own republican front proposal could unite
mainstream left votes in the CA elections, although the
Maoists will likely push ahead with a separate version.
The UML also hopes its republican agenda will tempt
back into the fold the many party workers who -
voluntarily or under coercion - joined the Maoists. It
remains a disciplined, well organised party with much
healthier inner democracy than most of its rivals.127
Despite some support for the idea, it is unlikely the
Maoists and UML could achieve anything more than
the most basic tactical alliance on certain issues. Each is
a threat to the other's long-term future, and there is little
basis for a shared vision. Prachanda provocatively
claimed that the UML would ultimately be merged into
the CPN(M); Madhav Kumar Nepal responded: "Is it
not enough [for them] to drink the blood of one-and-a-
half hundred UML cadres? How much blood do they
want?"128 Tussles over positions in the proposed interim
government have added to the tension. The UML sought
Maoist support for its bid to replace Koirala as interim
prime minister but Prachanda publicly rebuffed this.129
B.      THE MAOISTS
The Maoists' strategic goal remains a communist
republic (janabadi ganatantra), although they have
accepted the concept of a democratic republic (loktantrik
ganatantra) as an intermediate objective.130 Their official
policy is that the constituent assembly can be the first
step in a peaceful transition to that eventual communist
republic. However, their private analysis is that the
monarchy is unlikely to be removed without a further
violent confrontation. They have always believed that
the strength of Nepal's conservative institutions should
not be underestimated and still see mainstream parties
as reactionaries and revisionists who will resist radical
In early December 2006, the UML completed a three-
month "day-and-night" campaign, during which it renewed
thousands of its cardholder's membership and provided
political training. Ameet Dhakal, "Underestimate the UML at
your own peril", The Kathmandu Post, 5 December 2006.
128 "Interview with Madhav Kumar Nepal", Budhabar, 15
November 2006.
129 Crisis Group interview, Maoist central leader, Kathmandu,
November 2006.
130 They emphasise that even their ideal communist republic
would allow competitive politics among "anti-imperialist and
anti-expansionist" forces. See Crisis Group Asia Report
N° 104, Nepal's Maoists: Their Aims, Structure and Strategy,
27 October 2005.
reform.131 They are preparing for both routes - or a
combination of the two - by putting serious effort into
normal political campaigning while keeping their cadres
ready for a final fight if necessary.132
The public political activity which the Maoists started
immediately after the April movement has gained new
momentum since the peace agreement. They plan to
restructure the party to increase its effectiveness in open
politics, especially in elections.133 For dealing with
potential allies, their major priority is to form a democratic
republican front134 and tempt small leftist groups and
individuals to join the CPN(M).135 They have concentrated
on boosting their presence in the urban areas where they
have traditionally been weak. In Kathmandu, they claim
some 1,500 full-time political activists compared to 70
before April 2006.136 They have tried to curry support
among the sceptical local Newar community with a
"valley republican campaign" launched in October.137
They have had trouble deciding on their public image.
Their new urban "people's courts" drew enthusiastic
business from those fed up with the state judiciary but
harsh criticism from the press and mainstream politicians.
That Prachanda's promise to close the courts in major
cities138 has not been kept in Kathmandu139 reflects the
Maoists' difficulty in deciding which approach would
win more support rather than revealing a lack of
discipline. Attempts to foster sympathy by using cadres
Crisis Group interviews, Maoist leaders, Kathmandu,
October-November 2006.
132 A subsequent Crisis Group report will examine in detail
recent changes in Maoist politics and tactics.
133 A task force under Badal submitted restmcturing proposals at
the end of November and proposed names for the interim
legislature. The proposed new structure would follow the existing
administrative districts and electoral constituencies rather than the
demarcations the Maoists had been using. Crisis Group
interview, Maoist source, Kathmandu, November 2006.
134 Prachanda, press statement, 13 November 2006.
135 Crisis Group interviews, leftist leaders, Kathmandu,
November 2006.
136 Crisis Group interview, Maoist valley bureau source,
Kathmandu, October 2006.
137 Ibid. The Newars, the original inhabitants of the
Kathmandu valley, are an important constituency that has
never embraced the Maoists but is historically left-leaning
and appears disillusioned with the mainstream parties. On
Newar participation in the April movement, see Crisis Group
Report, From People Power to Peace, op. cit.
138 Prachanda, press statement, 3 July 2006.
139 Kantipur Television showed footage of one of the courts
delivering a verdict.
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to clean streets and target organised crime likewise
prompted mixed reactions.140
The Maoists also are having internal debates. Despite
victory rallies after signing the CPA, their declaration of
an end to the war has caused some disquiet.141 The
leaders have to sell significant compromises to political
and military cadres who consider themselves undefeated
but must lock up their weapons without achieving their
minimum goal of a republic, join as a minority party an
interim parliamentary set-up of the type they had so
trenchantly criticised and dissolve the "people's
governments" which many regard as the most concrete
achievement of ten years of war. The leadership still
believes that focusing on the constituent assembly as an
interim step makes sense: a central committee member
explained that the hope remains of establishing their
own government in an unspecified future.142 But this is
a tough sell to local activists, especially if power in the
villages has to be traded for legislative and ministerial
berths for a select few.
The August-September 2006 central committee meeting
addressed both broader policy issues and internal
discipline. The leadership line on the talks was accepted
after heated debate, and there was an admission that
working methods needed much reform. The political
report criticised lower-level leaders and cadres for using
force to compensate for weakness in ideological and
political campaigning.143 The meeting also laid down a
strict line on party discipline.144 For now, despite some
tensions between the leadership and the grass-roots, the
140 The Maoists launched an anti-crime "Operation CC (crime
control)", detaining over 100 alleged criminals, 37 of whom
were put on display, alongside stolen property and weapons,
at a press conference. "Aparadh niyantran apareshan saphal",
Krishnasenonline.org, 21 October 2006. They also patrolled
streets in the tourist hub of Thamel during the Tihar festival.
Alok Tumbahangphey, "Red Road", Nepali Times, 20-26
October 2006.
141 Crisis Group interviews, Maoist district and regional level
activists, Kathmandu, November 2006. Rabindra Shrestha
who left the Maoists in March 2006 after a dispute with
Prachanda has called on cadres to revolt against him and
Bhattarai, whom he describes as traitors who betrayed the
people's war. Interview with Rabindra Shrestha, Ghatana ra
Bichar, 29 November 2006.
142 Crisis Group interview, Maoist central committee
member, Kathmandu, November 2006.
143 "Aitihasik sambhavana ra aitihasik chunauti", CPN(M)
central committee-approved document, Sanshleshan, September
2006.
144 Crisis Group interview, Maoist central leader, Kathmandu,
September 2006.
Maoists remain cohesive, with overall command and
control throughout their movement.
The Maoist leadership has also been devoting attention
to improving its international image and building
relationships with key states. Their intemational department
chief summarises policy priorities as neutralising Indian
opposition, increasing ties with China and maintaining a
critical stance towards the U.S.145 Prachanda was at
pains to praise India's role in the transition during his
first open visit to New Delhi on 18-19 November
2006.146 He met Indian leaders - primarily former prime
ministers, the current government being still not ready
for formal contact - and announced that for the Maoists
"India is no longer a reactionary state".147 His revelation
that they had rejected help from Pakistani intelligence in
1997 was calculated to make press headlines.148
C.    The Palace
King Gyanendra was the main loser when his fragile
direct rule crumbled. While he avoided total defeat and
still commands the loyalty of some powerful friends,
parliament's many small cuts have eroded his dignity
and influence. He has been comprehensively sidelined
from public life and shorn of almost all ceremonial
duties; even the sympathetic forces around the palace,
including the army, seem to have lost faith in the
monarchy as a political rallying point. While it is
premature to predict the public verdict - the idea ofthe
monarchy is still powerful even if the incumbent is
unpopular - the chances of a major palace comeback
have diminished.
On his few public appearances since April, Gyanendra
has cut a lonely figure. Prime Minister Koirala and
army chief Katwal did not accompany the king and
queen at the indra jatra and phulpati festivals as they
would have in the past. The king no longer gives assent
to acts of parliament or receives ambassadors'
credentials; he has lost his role as supreme commander
of the army and the CPA leaves even his position as
head of state unclear. Nevertheless, the palace has
tenaciously retained some levers of power. Despite
cooler relations (each blaming the other for the fiasco of
royal rule), the divorce of king and army has yet to be
Crisis Group interview, Kathmandu, September 2006.
146 An invitation to speak at the Hindustan Times leadership
summit had already suggested a receptive audience.
147 "Prachanda declares: India is no longer a reactionary
state", The Himalayan Times, 18 November 2006.
148 "Aaiesaaiko sahayog asvikar garyaun", Kantipur, 20
November 2006.
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implemented. Some public distancing is not the same as
a real transfer of control to the government and, despite
declarations, the palace military secretariat has not been
disbanded.149 The palace still directly commands the
3,000-strong royal guard, a sophisticated force that
includes units such as a mortar company based outside
the Narayanhiti complex.
The palace secretariat - the key centre of control under
royal rule - is still intact despite parliament's announcement
that it would be brought into the normal civil service
and reduced. The press secretariat has regained the
confidence to rebut controversial accusations.150 At the
CPA signing ceremony, Prime Minister Koirala and
Prachanda both mentioned that there is still a rightist
threat to democracy, implying the palace could try to
undermine the deal.151 One new group even threatened
to launch a violent struggle to defend the king.152 Such
crude efforts are unlikely to attract much support, even
from the palace, as long as the CPA process holds out
hope of salvaging an acceptable compromise. This is
the preferred option of Kathmandu's pro-monarchy
elites, who do not want an end to the institution but lack
the capacity to intervene directly on its behalf.
The king appears to be testing the situation; his advisors
hope that problems with the peace process may yet give
the palace openings to regain prestige. Gyanendra
refused to respond to the Rayamajhi commission's
written queries about his role in suppressing the April
movement, and he has been consulting with his allies
and restoring his information-gathering systems.153 But
he seems to have learned some subtlety and diplomacy.
He publicly welcomed the CPA, even though it further
curtailed his powers, saying he hoped "a prosperous
"Safnik sachivalay ajhai sakriya", Kantipur, 1 September
2006. Principle Military Secretary Maj.-Gen Gajendra Limbu
still works at the palace and the government has not established a
proposed royal security coordination unit in the Defence Ministry
to replace the palace's own aide-de-camp office.
150 The press secretariat promptly rebutted charges that
Crown Prince Paras was involved in buying arms during a
trip to Austria. "Yubarajko samlagnata chaina", Kantipur, 4
September 2006. An allegation that the British government
paid the palace a royalty in return for Gurkha recruitment was
similarly dealt with. "Palace denies malicious report",
People's Review, 21 September 2006.
151 "Comprehensive Peace Accord signed, armed insurgency
declared officially over", nepalnews.com, 21 November 2006.
152 The Nepal Janatantrik Party, formed in the far-west district
of Kailali, has so far done little more than issue press releases.
"Party to take up arms in king's support", The Himalayan
Times, 16 October 2006.
153 Crisis Group interview, palace source, Kathmandu,
September 2006.
Nepal can now be built with the collective efforts of all
the Nepalis".154 Insiders explained that this move was
proposed by the prime minister, who is willing to help
the king restore the monarchy's image as long as he
stays out of politics.155
D.    Civil Society
Civil society was unified and important during the April
movement but since then group and individual interests
have diverged. Some have adopted a radical stance,
pushing policies such as a republic; others have been
drawn into the fringes of government, for example by
appointments to the Rayamajhi commission and the
ceasefire code of conduct national monitoring committee.
The Maoists and NC(D) had proposed seats for civil
society in the interim legislative, interim government
and constituent assembly; all parties have used patronage
to reward their civil society supporters.
The parties never enjoyed criticism by self-appointed
civil society groups. While some civil society figures
were quick to rebuild relations in hope of reward, others
felt it all the more important to criticise government
performance and act as a vocal watchdog. The Citizens'
Movement for Democracy and Peace, the most prominent
such group, played an important role paving the way for
the April movement. However, its campaign for a
republic and insistence on rapid implementation of
agreements led intellectuals close to the SPA to accuse
it of being soft on the Maoists, a charge its leaders deny.
There has also been a shift in the outlook of the
mainstream media. Publishers had been forced by their
journalists to take a strong line against the king after the
royal coup, and the non-government press strongly
supported the April movement. In its aftermath,
publishers' and journalists' interests have converged:
most are close to the mainstream parties and worry
about the Maoists gaining too much power. The daily
press has been quick to highlight Maoist misbehaviour,
while some prominent publications have softened their
line on the monarchy. The largest daily, Kantipur,
criticised the Federation of Nepalese Journalists'
decision to campaign for a democratic republic.156
"King lauds treaty", The Himalayan Times, 23 November
2006.
155 Crisis Group interview, NC central leader, Kathmandu,
November 2006.
156 "Patrakar mahasangh ganatantraka pakshama", Kantipur,
20 November 2006; "Peshako maryada" (editorial), Kantipur,
21 November 2006.
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Despite these divisions and shifts, public opinion, much
of it channelled through the media and representative
groups, has been an important spur to both sides to
make a success ofthe peace process. The direct influence
exerted by protestors in April has died away but all
parties know there will be a tough fight for constituent
assembly votes: anyone considered an obstacle to peace
is likely to pay a price at the ballot box.
E.       INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
Although differences of interest and emphasis persist,
the intemational community has been broadly helpful
during the difficult months of negotiation. India has
retained its pre-eminent influence - all parties, especially
the Maoists, are still keen to curry its favour - and can
claim credit for having quietly helped shape the
settlement framework. The U.S. has found it difficult to
revise its assessment that any solution other than
reunion ofthe palace and parties to combat the Maoists
invites disaster but has vocally supported the peace
process while maintaining strong public pressure on the
Maoists to change behaviour. China, long seen as
favouring the palace, adjusted rapidly to build links
with the Maoists and keep options open.157 Others,
primarily Nepal's development partners, offered moral
support but were careful not to intervene in the
negotiations.158 All have supported the UN role.
The April movement was a success for India's cautious
engagement with the Maoists and facilitation of their
November 2005 deal with the mainstream parties.
India's approach had been informed by two
considerations: that the military situation made a
political solution more urgent; and that Gyanendra
could not be trusted and had to be taught a lesson, if
need be by using the Maoists. This policy shift was not
without risks: it was hard to sell in New Delhi and never
convinced the U.S. Nevertheless, the hope that Nepal's
Maoists joining the mainstream could also send a lesson
Maoist leaders Dev Gurung, Ananta and Dinanath Sharma
attended a party hosted by the Nepal-China Society, a
Chinese embassy-funded NGO, on 21 September 2006 and
chatted over cocktails with Chinese diplomats, including the
ambassador; a senior diplomat commented positively on them
to journalists, Kantipur TV news bulletin, 22 September 2006.
Prachanda had a first official meeting with Chinese diplomats
but a Chinese communist party delegation in late November
met only SPA leaders.
158 See, "Int'l community should not impose ideas on Nepal
peace process: Hall", The Kathmandu Post, 21 October 2006.
to their Indian counterparts made it a worthwhile
gambit.159
Success brought its own problems. With Gyanendra
moved aside, there was domestic concern about the
Maoists and much more critical questioning of
engagement with them. The government's apparent
weakness in acceding to Maoist demands in the eight-
point agreement added to such concerns.160 Indian
policy reportedly compensated for the dangers of a
seemingly weak government by ensuring that the army
remained untouched as a last line of leverage with the
Maoists.161 But the public line simply stayed with the
"course correction" that then-Foreign Secretary Shyam
Saran had issued following the rejection of the king's
first proclamation on 22 April, when he emphasised that
Nepal's political future "is really for the people of
Nepal to decide....We have been and continue to be
firmly on the side of democratic forces in Nepal. There
should be no ambiguity about that".162
New Delhi remained publicly cool to the Maoists.
Although there were frequent, discreet lower-level
contacts, there has been only one acknowledged meeting
between Maoist leaders and Ambassador Shiv Shankar
Mukherjee.163 Indian ministers are unlikely to engage
with them formally until the arms issue is settled and
the interim government established.164 Despite their
underlying differences in analysis, the U.S.'s sustained
pressure on the Maoists has been helpful to India, which
159 This suggestion was not new. See S.D. Muni, Maoist
Insurgency in Nepal: The Challenge and the Response (New
Delhi, 2003), p. 67.
160 Crisis Group interviews, New Delhi, July-October 2006.
161 Nepali Congress sources suggest India advised Koirala not
to move against senior army officers and to postpone reform
of the institution. Crisis Group interviews, Kathmandu,
September 2006. Commentators suspected fraternal relations
with the Indian Army would have been jeopardised had the
government pursued significant restructuring. C.K. Lai,
"Shanti sansthagat game chunauti", Himal Khabarpatrika, 18
October 2006.
162 "Press Briefing by Foreign Secretary Shri Shyam Saran on
Nepal", Ministry of External Affairs, New Delhi, 22 April 2006.
See Crisis Group Report, From People Power to Peace, op. cit.
for an explanation ofthe context of this statement.
163 This took place at the Indian Embassy on 31 October 2006.
164 India has signalled its softening stance. In August, eleven
mid-level Maoists leaders and cadres who had been detained
in Patna for two years were released; two top leaders, CP.
Gajurel (Gaurav) and Mohan Baidya (Kiran), who had been
arrested in 2003 and 2004 respectively, were set free on 1
December.
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does not have major differences with Washington over
the desirability of early full disarmament.165
VI.    THE ROAD AHEAD
A.       WILL IT WORK?
1.       Overambitious timetable
The agreement is a solid basis for a lasting deal; its
negotiation in the face of many obstacles demonstrates
political will and aptitude. That said, the issues yet to be
tackled are challenging and can still derail the process.
Likely, deadlines will continue to be missed. That is not
necessarily disastrous: ambitious timeframes have
spurred talks, and slight slippage will not unduly upset
the parties or the public. The crucial date is for
constituent assembly elections. Ifthe June 2007 target is
missed, the next suitable opening will be after the
monsoon and holidays, in November - a gap that could
prompt disillusionment or misbehaviour from disgruntled
parties.
Although the elections seem a long way off, especially
to negotiators engaged in complex talks, immediate
steps are required to make them viable. The Election
Commission has been able to make some preparations
but can only proceed with firm plans once a new
electoral law and associated regulations are in place.
These have to be passed by the interim legislature -
something that can only happen once an interim
government is in place and with it agreement on
appointments to crucial ministries and administrative
positions. There should ideally be restored rule of law
and an open environment for campaigning and public
education months in advance of the polls. Even if the
priority of peace encourages tolerance of less than ideal
conditions - something that international observers may
make difficult166 - there will need to be solid agreement
on basic issues such as policing.
One spur to quick progress is the prime minister's poor
health. At 84, Girija Prasad Koirala is acutely aware
that he may not have the strength to guide the process
for much longer. His age has made him physically frail
but his seniority - he is a generation older than most
other political leaders, including the king - has made it
easier for the Maoists and rival SPA parties to accept
U.S. Ambassador James F. Moriarty had consistently
argued that the Maoists should not be allowed into
government without disarming. "Don't Include Maoists in
Interim Govt Till They Disarm: Moriarty", The Himalayan
Times, 30 July 2006. He has been quick to criticise bad
behaviour, warning that "the US stance on the Maoists would
only change after seeing and observing their activities".
"Moriarty says Maoists not committed to agreement",
nepalnews.com, 1 December 2006.
The UN will monitor the constituent assembly election.
The government and Maoists have also invited the Carter
Center to observe the polls; it is to send ten long-term
international observers and an additional 40 observers for the
polls themselves. "Carter Center to observe CA polls",
ekantipur.com, 23 November 2006. The European Union has
also offered to assist in monitoring. "EU pledges development
assistance", The Rising Nepal, 18 November 2006.
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his leadership. The end of his active political life will
spark power struggles within the NC, the SPA and the
SPA-Maoist combine. This is one ofthe most pressing
threats to the peace process.
2.       Keeping the process on track
Problems with the negotiation process itself beset the
talks until they resumed at the end of September 2006.
Instead of solid, mutually agreed structures to engage
and resolve day-to-day tensions, the process was
heavily dependent on personal relations between a
handful of top leaders and suffered badly when they
disagreed. For example, from 9 August to 17
September, Koirala and Prachanda did not even speak
on the phone, jeopardising the entire process.167 The
talks were opaque and exclusive - necessarily so at
times, but not always inspiring public confidence. There
was more quiet facilitation and technical support than in
past efforts but structure still appeared occasionally
lacking.
Following the signing of the CPA, some of these
problems look less threatening. "The communication
gap ... isn't an issue any more", said a figure involved
in the November negotiations. "There are now good
working relationships between plenty of people at
different levels on both sides; they talk openly, stay in
touch and generally get on well - so it's unlikely
there'll be a breakdown there".168 Nevertheless, it is
important to keep some focus on the factors necessary
to keep talks on track through the difficult stages to
come.
Mutual trust has improved but could still be fragile,
especially if external events buffet the negotiations. As
contentious topics move up the agenda, more
confidence will be needed. This is particularly true for a
final deal on arms and armies, since neither side has
been chastened by defeat. It is likely that the UN will be
drawn into an informal facilitation role in some areas,
which could help stabilise the process but brings risks
as it has no mandate for facilitation or mediation. Public
pressure helped focus attention on the need for success
but mutual confidence in a process that is strong enough
to ride out inevitable ups and downs is more important.
3.       Potential spoilers
The momentum of a successful process backed by solid
public support is the best guard against spoilers who are
unhappy with the direction of the talks. To a large
extent, the CPA has provided such momentum. Although
some powerful lobbies are deeply suspicious of
compromises with the Maoists, there is no evidence of a
viable effort to derail the process. The Nepalese Army,
understandably worried about Maoist intentions and its
own future, remains in "wait and watch" mode - not yet
an enthusiastic partner but not a determined opponent.
Royalists are upset by the king's humiliation and
concerned about the future but, so far, lack the will and
support to oppose developments.
The biggest hopes and risks still attach to the
negotiating parties themselves. The success ofthe talks
so far has boosted those on each side who argued for a
negotiated settlement but there remain those within the
mainstream parties and the Maoists who are not yet
convinced that other options can - or should - be closed.
Unity and discipline, especially within the Maoist
movement (whose cadres have more potential to disrupt
the process if they break with their leaders), will be crucial.
Finally there is a risk of the next stages being
destabilised by external factors. There are still armed
splinter groups outside the process, such as the Janatantrik
Tarai Mukti Morcha (JTMM), a faction of former
Maoists fighting for Tarai regional rights. It has mainly
targeted the Maoists, who have declared "war" against
it in return.169 For now, it is small, localised and too
weak to disrupt the wider process; the same goes for
other independent ethnic, religious or royalist fronts
which exist more in name than in practice. But if the
process founders and powerful backers choose to boost
such groups, they could cause real problems, however
limited their political base. In such circumstances,
disaffection among Maoist cadres could also trigger a
return to wider conflict, with or without their leaders'
approval.
Bhojraj Bhat, "Hatiyarmai aljhiyo varta", Nepal, 24
September 2006.
168 Crisis Group interview, Kathmandu, November 2006.
When JTMM killed two Maoists cadres in Saptari, Maoist
leader Matrika Yadav declared war against it at a press
conference on 17 July 2006 in Rajbiraj. "Maoists Declare
War Against Breakaway Faction", The Himalayan Times, 18
July 2006. The most recent exchange of fire was in Saptari on
18 October 2006. Dilli Ram Khatiwada, "Maoists, JTMM
trade fire", The Kathmandu Post, 19 October 2006. The
JTMM has also targeted other hill-origin people, including
mainstream party workers.
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B.    From Arms Management to
DEMILITARISATION
1.       Implementing the arms management
agreement
The Agreement on Monitoring of the Management of
Arms and Armies was signed on 28 November and
witnessed by the UN.170 It had already been agreed in
early November that the Maoist fighters would be
cantoned with their weapons under a UN-supervised
single-lock system;171 the Nepalese Army would
reciprocate by restricting all but essential activities and
keeping a similar number of arms locked under a
parallel system. This framework was hard to achieve,
and the full deal required intensive bargaining, partly
because the UN's need for a specific mandate
necessitated a document without the ambiguities and
deferrals common to the other peace deals.
Practical progress has been quick on some fronts. The
Maoists had in effect started the cantonment process
immediately after the April movement, largely because
the ceasefire rendered the PLA the least important of
their wings. Preparing for cantonment was a relatively
cost-free way to signal goodwill and distract attention
from the lingering issue of their separate local militias
while starting to argue that the government should
contribute to the force's upkeep. Since the agreement
was signed, they have set up a committee to manage the
cantonment process; reports indicate that Maoist
fighters assembled quickly in the designated areas,
although their first task is to create their own shelters as
little infrastructure is in place.
Once the arms management agreement was reached, the
government was quick to make a first tranche of funds
available; it also formed a cantonment coordination
office, headed by Joint Secretary Sushil Jung Bahadur
Rana, and announced plans to establish camp
management committees for each of the seven main
cantonments. Indeed, there is already a profusion of
committees; at the central level, a direction committee
under the prime minister and an implementation
committee under the chief secretary are also meant to
assist PLA camp management, on top of which the
government has separately formed a PLA cantonment
management committee under Home Minister Krishna
Sitaula, with a technical committee to assist it.172
The UN has a critical role in monitoring arms and
armies and has already moved quickly to put mechanisms
in place. In a rapid response to a request from the
Secretary-General, the Security Council authorised
immediate deployment of 60 new personnel (35 for
arms monitoring, 25 to support the electoral process) as
well as an assessment team to recommend how to
establish a full mission.
2.       Possible problems
This rapid progress does not in itself remove all
difficulties. The UN's task of registering Maoist fighters
will be far from straightforward. As well as verifying
identities, monitors are expected to weed out recent
recruits (in order to boost their numbers the Maoists
have cajoled and forced many to join during the peace
talks) and the under-aged. The limited number of
monitors will have little capacity for independent
verification, and the Maoists will push them to accept
their own records. Registering weapons will be more
straightforward and also one of the more measurable
tests of Maoist commitment, as the army and police will
be able to compare the numbers handed in with what
they know the Maoists seized from them.
Assuming these issues can be addressed - and they
likely will be, with some fudging - the main question
will be what the PLA does inside the cantonments, how
it is provided for and how disaffection can be avoided if
the process slows. Practical difficulties have already
been suggested by a reported outbreak of illness
affecting 100 fighters in one camp. Maoist commanders
complained the camp lacked basic infrastructure,
including a water supply, and that the initial government
funds covered only two weeks' expenses.173 If CA
elections are delayed, there will be far greater problems
during the monsoon, with attendant risk of illness. Even
if elections go ahead on time, dismantling the camps
Following some technical revisions by UN lawyers in
New York, Ian Martin signed the agreement on behalf of the
UN on 8 December.
171 The summit had settled on the locations for camps: Kailali,
Surkhet, Rolpa Palpa, Kavre, Sindhuli and Ham; Palpa and
Kavre were later changed to Nawalparasi and Chitwan. These
seven districts will host divisional headquarters; three
brigades will be positioned within two hours' drive of each
main cantonment, giving a total of 28 camps.
"Govt provides Rs 70m to Maoists for management of
cantonments", nepalnews.com, 23 November 2006. The
technical committee formed on 6 December 2006 includes
Nawaraj Khatri, Ram Chandra Poudel, Surya Bhakta and
Sharad Shrestha representing the government and Chandra
Khanal (Baldev), Lok Bahadur Raut, Jagat Shrestha and
Laxmi Devkota from the Maoists. "Prabidhik samittee
gathan", Kantipur, 7 December 2006.
173 Ramesh Chandra Adhikari, "Hundreds of Maoists fall sick
in camp", The Kathmandu Post, 8 December 2006.
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Page 26
can only take place when the future of their occupants
has been decided.
The government army also has challenges, although the
practicalities of registering its troops and weapons and
accommodating them satisfactorily should be less of a
problem. Like the Maoists, it has already started
showing goodwill, for example by mapping the
landmines it planted to protect bases,174 but it still has
some way to go to show that it is under government
control. Despite having agreed to a freeze and being
ordered by the government to stop, it has been
recruiting.175 It says it is only filling some 4,000 vacant
slots but such behaviour could cause friction and points
to the continuing weakness of democratic controls.
Misunderstandings are also likely to arise while it
carries out the essential duties agreed to under the peace
deal. As noted, the Maoists held eleven army vehicles
for two hours in November on suspicion of carrying
weapons, releasing them after negotiations.176 Army
headquarters warned that the Maoists would be held
responsible for any interference with military activities.177
None of these problems is insurmountable. Overcoming
them requires continued political will, astute management
(including by the UN and national monitors) and further
confidence building. However, the management of arms
is only a small part ofthe big picture. In early November,
Maoist cadres in Pokhara asked their chairman: "What
should we do if the enemy attacks us after we lock up
our weapons?" Prachanda responded: "The keys will be
with us. If that situation arises, pick up your guns and
fight".178 Making sure such a situation does not arise
will require more than just fulfilling the terms of the
arms management agreement.
3.       Towards demilitarisation
The limited management of weapons and soldiers is
well short of full Maoist disarmament or reorientation
ofthe state security sector to peacetime. The focus on
arms and armies also tends to obscure the broader
challenge of demilitarisation. Building a stable peace
demands more than taking guns out of people's hands -
it also needs to take them out of politics. There is a long
way to go on both the Maoist and state side.
The longer-term challenge in demilitarising the Maoists
is that armed action is an integral part of their political
culture and strategy. Even if they can conform to
normal democratic behaviour, it will be hard to make a
permanent change in their worldview - especially in a
way that does not prompt splits or serious indiscipline.
For this, management of weapons is marginal. The
Maoists have built themselves into a force to be
reckoned with despite having only a fraction ofthe arms
available to the state.179 They started with only two
rifles and could restock without too much difficulty
should they choose even after full disarmament.
In the short term, the Maoists will likely retain the
capacity to intimidate even if they abide by the arms
management deal. They are still an organised force with
a known capacity for violence. That their frontline
fighters are temporarily in camps does not mean that
people will be free from fear. If their command
structure and country-wide discipline remain intact they
can be a formidable force even if armed only with sticks
and knives.
Demilitarisation will also be difficult for the state.
Despite some preliminary moves, real military reform
has yet to start.180 Democratic control depends on more
determined political will and persuading the army that it
must readjust its institutional culture. If peace lasts,
Nepal will be burdened with a seriously oversized
security sector: initial discussions about bringing it to
manageable levels and reshaping it to be more efficient
are urgently needed.
Most importantly, only a viable final deal on security
arrangements will give the Maoists confidence to
sacrifice their independent military capacity and a
proposition they can sell to their armed cadres. The
interim government is to form a special committee to
plan the merger of two armies. According to Maoist
military commander Ananta, this committee will be
tasked with democratising the NA and professionalising
the PLA.181 However there is still a large gap between
"Senalai   aaphnai  bamko   sanaso",  Jana Aastha,   6
December 2006.
175 The current strength of the Nepalese Army is around
93,000. "Senama pheri bharm", Kantipur, 15 November 2006.
176 This incident took place on 2 November in Paurahi,
Rautahat district. "Senaka gadi dedh ghanta maobadi
niyantranma", Nepal Samacharpatra, 3 November 2006.
177 "Maobadilai senako chetawani", Drishti, 7 November 2006.
178 "Rajnitik mudda suljhiyo", Kantipur, 6 November 2006.
The Maoists have captured around 3,000 weapons from
state security forces and have probably made and bought a
similar number: in total, they may have 6,000-7,000
weapons. Crisis Group interviews, army and Maoist sources,
Kathmandu, September-October 2006. See Crisis Group
Report Nepal's Maoists, op. cit. for detailed estimates.
180 Reform of the army will be the subject of a subsequent
Crisis Group report.
181 Interview with Ananta, Janadesh, 21 November 2006.
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Page 27
the sides' thinking, and there will be great resistance in
the NA to accept more than token numbers of ex-
Maoist fighters or many changes in a structure it argues
is already professional and loyal.
C.      RULE OF LAW AND DEMOCRATIC SPACE
The major challenge in making the peace process work
and paving the way for viable elections will be reestablishing rule of law and democratic space across the
country. This is also where the CPA is most vague,
leaving many crucial steps to be decided by
"understanding" between the parties.182 Apart from their
arms, which are now out ofthe front line, the Maoists'
grip on much ofthe countryside is their strongest card.
They are unwilling to surrender control that guarantees
them continued influence and the chance to push their
policies at local level. The mainstream parties insist
their national organisations remain in good shape
despite institutional absence from much of the country
for several years and lingering dissatisfaction with their
earlier record in power. But they have yet to push the
Maoists hard on ensuring access to areas which they
had been forced to abandon during the conflict.
The almost complete lack of policing in the post-April
period - in major cities as well as rural areas -
illustrates the difficulties ahead. Although the CPA
states clearly that the Nepal Police is the legitimate law-
enforcing body and will be allowed to operate without
hindrance,183 the Maoists have not welcomed the re-
establishment of posts where they hold sway. Their
behaviour suggests they will seek to negotiate each case
individually and seek compensatory benefits. Proposed
local peace councils could be a means of building trust
and power-sharing mechanisms; they are backed by the
government's Peace Secretariat (which has had little
role in the talks other than channelling some technical
advice) and some donors.184 However their rationale is
sketchy and their possible effectiveness, as well as the
interests they represent, would be dependent on the
same dynamics as any other local bodies.
Maoist strategy continues to be in contradiction with
their commitment to mainstream politics. Even if the
formation of an interim government goes ahead
smoothly and the Maoists join as a political party, they
will retain the idea of representing their "new regime".
They have plans to continue their policies as far as
possible, for example by reorganising the judiciary and
bureaucracy from within the interim government.185 The
"people's governments" will only be dissolved once the
interim legislature is in place; even then the plan is to
keep shadow institutions in place by converting these
bodies (which, however, still exist more in concept than
daily administrative reality) into regional fronts.
Change in Maoist policies depends not so much on an
improbable change of heart over strategy as on the
democratic parties showing more resolve in
implementing the CPA. The parties remain top-heavy
and focused on politics in the capital. They have not
used the end of royal rule to move back into the
villages. This may be partly due to Maoist obstruction,
although central party leaders do not generally complain
of this,186 but seems to reflect more a lack of will. There
is also a problem of partisan interest: the UML had
pushed to reinstate the old local bodies because it was
the largest party in them; Congress and other parties
have sidelined this for the same reason. Civil servants
theoretically run administrations but in practice there is
little government presence in the villages.187
For ordinary citizens the picture is mixed. The end of
all-out hostilities has brought relief and a renewed sense
of security but much has yet to change. The CPA
agreed to accelerate the process of returning houses,
land and property confiscated by the Maoists but there
has not yet been much delivery. The two sides have also
vowed to create an environment for IDPs to return
home, partly through bipartite district committees. The
The CPA leaves many matters to be decided by
"understanding" or "mutual consensus". It commits both
sides "to take individual and collective responsibility of
resolving, with also the support of all political parties, civil
society and local institutions, any problems arising in the
aforementioned context on the basis of mutual consensus",
CPA, Article 5.2.9. The 8 November summit understanding
had many similar provisions.
183 The accord states (Article 5.1.6): "Nepal Police and
Armed Police Force shall give continuity to the task of
maintaining [the] legal system and law and order along with
criminal investigation".
184 Crisis Group interviews, donor agencies, Kathmandu,
December 2006.
Baburam   Bhattarai,   "Shanti   vartaka   chunautiharu",
Sanshleshan, 20 August 2006.
186 In one case, Maoists reportedly used violence to obstruct a
planned UML meeting in mid-western Dailekh district.
"Maoists explode bomb to terrorize UML activists",
nepalnews.com, 20 November 2006.
187 A nationwide survey by the UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in July found that 68
per cent of Village Development Committee Secretaries were
still displaced from their villages. "OCHA Nepal Situation
Overview", Kathmandu, 11 August 2006. Available at the
UN Nepal Information Platform, http://www.un.org.np/.
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Page 28
CPA target of completing this process within one
month is unrealistic; the UN is so concerned that it has
launched a special inter-agency campaign to address the
issue.
D.    Peace and Justice?
Nepal faces sometimes competing imperatives of peace
and justice. So far, attention has been given to the
former, while plans to address accountability for crimes
committed during the war remain vague and lack
political momentum. The government took prompt
steps to investigate possible abuses by the state against
protestors in the April movement but follow-up has
been limited. Neither the government nor the Maoists
has shown any great appetite to pursue those
responsible for the more significant violations over the
course of the conflict. The peace deal promises a truth
and reconciliation commission but its viability and
public acceptability are yet to be explored.
The zeal with which the government pursued security
officials accused of abuses in April was undermined by
a piecemeal and partial approach. The police and
intelligence chiefs were rapidly suspended and then
permanently relieved of commands.189 However, the
government was pressured not to suspend the army chief,
Pyar Jung Thapa, although the army acknowledged it
controlled all security forces during April under the
Unified Command system.190 Second-rank officers in
the regular and armed police appeared to be judged by
their connections rather than their actions: The deputy
chief of the armed force, Ravi Raj Thapa, was
suspended despite the fact that he was in charge of
human resources and not part of the command chain;
Basudev Oli, who was responsible for operations, was
promoted to become the new chief191 Attempts to deal
"Presidential statement expresses support for political
mission to monitor arms, elections; advance deployment of
essential personnel", UN Security Council, 1 December 2006,
available at http://www.un.org.np.
189 The police chief, Shyam Bhakta Thapa and the armed
police chief, Sahabir Thapa were transferred to the Home
Ministry as "special officers" after three-month suspensions;
The National Investigation Department chief, Deviram
Sharma retired. Om Bikram Rana is the new police chief;
Dhana Singh Karki replaced Sharma.
190 The Unified Command put the army in operational control
of the civil police, armed police and national intelligence
agency; its dissolution was announced after the April
movement.
191 Home Minister Sitaula's 17 July decision to reinstate 53
police sub-inspectors was also controversial. They had been
dismissed four years earlier for refusing to serve in conflict
with the security forces' political masters got off to a
similarly inauspicious start, as former royal ministers were
detained without charge, then freed by the courts.192
Nepal has a mixed experience with transitional justice.
hi the wake ofthe 1990 democracy movement, a judicial
commission under former Supreme Court Justice
Mallik recommended action against those responsible
for abuses but none was taken. This enabled a smooth
transition and probably encouraged figures from the old
regime not to spoil the democratic elections; however,
some key officials and politicians criticised by the
Mallik Commission in 1990 resurfaced to reprise their
role in April 2006.193
In May 2006, the government formed a similar High-
Level Probe Commission (HLPC), under former Supreme
Court Judge Krishna Jung Rayamajhi, to investigate
abuses of state power and funds since the royal coup of
February 2005. It submitted a 1,400-page report on 20
November 2006 recommending action against 202
people including King Gyanendra and his cabinet (a
minority report complained that the king had been let
offlightly).194
A five-member cabinet committee under Deputy Prime
Minister K.P. Oli will suggest how to implement that
report.195 Signs are that Prime Minister Koirala would
prefer a quiet compromise to an acrimonious pursuit of
high-profile targets.196 Fearing this, MPs from various
areas but convinced Sitaula they had been victimised because
of their democratic convictions. Biswamani Pokhrel,
"Bhagaudalai swagaf', Samaya, 24 August 2006.
192 The government detained former royal ministers Kamal
Thapa, Ramesh Nath Pandey, Shrish Shamsher Rana and
Nikshya Shamsher Rana under the Public Security Act in
May 2006. The Supreme Court released them after three
weeks, observing that there were no real cases against them,
and their anests appeared to have been politically motivated.
193 See Crisis Group Report, Electing Chaos, op. cit.
194 Two commission members, Ram Kumar Shrestha and
Kiran Shrestha, dissented, dissatisfied that it did not
recommend strong action against the king despite finding him
directly involved in suppressing the April movement. Crisis
Group interview, HLPC source, Kathmandu, November
2006. The HLPC heard evidence from 294 people, including
security officials, civil servants, royal ministers and palace
officials. Only the king, questioned in his role as then head of
government, refused to cooperate.
195 Other members of the committee, formed on 27
November 2006, are Krishna Sitaula Gopal Man Shrestha,
Hridayesh Tripathi and Narendra Bikram Nembang.
196 Koirala rejected the recommendation to suspend the army
chief. He also visited the palace to smooth feathers ruffled
when Rayamajhi summoned the king's principal secretary,
Pashupati Bhakta Maharjan, to testify on 31 August 2006.
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Page 29
parties have pressed the government to publish the
report and act promptly on its recommendations.197 Oli
has insisted that "the Rayamajhi panel's report will not
face the same fate [as the Mallik report]" but has
remained non-committal on the form of any follow-up
action;198 his committee did not meet for more than a
week after its formation.
It is unclear how the Truth and Reconciliation
Commission proposed in the CPA will function. In the
absence of serious public debate, its suitability is
unproven. It is almost certain that any legal measures
will be decided and implemented domestically, without
recourse to international justice mechanisms. But there
may still be a role for international technical assistance,
and international rights organisations will keep up
pressure for accountability.199 Meanwhile, for relatives
of victims, especially families whose breadwinners
were killed or disappeared, financial compensation and
security are probably as important as justice and
psychological closure.
VII. CONCLUSION
Crisis Group interview, cabinet minister, Kathmandu,
September 2006. Maharjan met the prime minister again
immediately before the king refused to respond to questions,
leading some to suspect his non-cooperation had the prime
minister's blessing.
197 "Implement Rayamajhi Commission report, MPs tell
govt", nepalnews.com, 7 December 2006.
198 "Interview with DPM K.P. Oli", ekantipur.com, 7
December 2006.
199 Human Rights Watch has pointed out that the CPA makes
no mention ofthe judicial or penal measures that will be used
to enforce accountability. "Nepal: After Peace Agreement,
Time for Justice: Army, Maoists Must Account for Killings,
'Disappearances'", Human Rights Watch, New York, 1
December 2006.
Nepal's peace agreement reflects determined leadership
and much hard-headed political necessity: neither the
SPA nor the Maoists had attractive alternatives to
making the talks work. Although their goals remain
very different, there is a much more solid convergence
of interests than in earlier, failed efforts to reach a
negotiated settlement.
The collapse ofthe 2003 negotiations paved the way for
the king to sideline the mainstream parties, and they are
now more aware that their popular legitimacy and grip
on power is largely dependent on delivering peace. The
Maoists have not abandoned their ideology, admitted
defeat or abandoned the possibility of reverting to
armed insurgency. However, they have little to gain
through further military action and probably see
mainstream politics as a more profitable route, as long
as it affords them a serious share of power at the centre
and the chance to retain local influence and achieve
their goals.
Making the agreement work means building on these
shared interests and ensuring that progress limits room
for spoilers to undermine the process. In practice this
translates into managing successful elections and then
delivering a stable, long-term settlement through the
constituent assembly. The first task requires serious
preparation: free and fair polls will only be possible if
the resolution of outstanding issues leads to a rapid
restoration of democratic space and government across
the country.
The election of the constituent assembly will not in
itself guarantee smooth functioning, especially if there
is deadlock on important topics, but it will provide a
clear popular mandate, the crucial element that has been
absent from national politics since 2002. Once elected,
the CA will present new challenges; depending on the
balance of power and willingness of the parties to
cooperate these may be more intractable than the
threshold issues. Public pressure for peace and
economic progress will remain the best incentive for all
parties to deliver a lasting solution.
Kathmandu/Brussels, 15 December 2006
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Page 30
APPENDIX A
MAP OF NEPAL
n       Jjananngbo
Boundary ntpresentatrop is
not necessarily authoritative
Zones
1 Mahakali
3 Gandaki
2Seti
9 Narayani
3 Karnali
10 Bagmati
4 Bheri
11Janakpur
5 Rapti
12 Sagarmattia
6 DhawalagirT
13Kosi
7 Lumbini
14 Mechi
Co
\/-^r>
Baas 301532 (B007501 fi-qo
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Page 31
APPENDIX B
CHRONOLOGY OF THE PEACE PROCESS
2001
27 July: Government and Maoists declare ceasefire and
announce negotiations.
13-14 September: At second round of talks Maoists
submit 31 demands including constituent assembly.
23 November: Following deadlock in third talks, Maoists
end ceasefire and attack the army.
26 November: Government declares nationwide state of
emergency and mobilises army for the first time.
2002
22 May: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba dissolves
parliament for fresh elections after dispute with party
president Girija Prasad Koirala over extending state of
emergency.
4 October: King Gyanendra dismisses Prime Minister
Deuba; assumes executive power.
11 October: King appoints RPP leader Lokendra Bahadur
Chand prime minister.
2003
29 January: Bilateral ceasefire announced; government
appoints Narayan Singh Pun as talks coordinator; Maoists
announce five-member talks team under Baburam
Bhattarai (1 February).
April-May: Government reshuffles negotiation team; two
rounds of talks make no substantive progress.
5 July: NC, UML, NSP, Janamorcha Nepal and NWPP
sign eighteen-point agreement in first alliance against
royal rule.
30 May: Prime Minister Chand resigns; king appoints
Surya Bahadur Thapa prime minister (4 June); he forms
new talks team (12 June).
July-August: Disagreement over constituent assembly at
third round of talks; army kills nineteen unarmed Maoists
in Doramba, Ramechhap; Maoists pull out of talks and
end ceasefire (27 August).
2004
7 May: Prime Minister Thapa resigns; King reappoints
Sher Bahadur Deuba prime minister (2 June); he forms
coalition government.
2005
1 January: King dismisses Prime Minister Deuba in coup
restoring direct palace rule.
April: Secret NC-Maoist talks start in New Delhi.
10 April: Government signs agreement with UNOHCHR
for Nepal office (established in May 2005).
8 May: NC, NC(D), UML, Janamorcha Nepal, NWPP,
ULF and NSP form Seven-Party Alliance (SPA).
10-15 July: UN Special Advisor Lakhdar Brahimi visits
Nepal and later holds talks with New Delhi (September).
3 September: After progress in semi-secret talks with
SPA, Maoists announce three-month unilateral ceasefire;
royal government refuses to reciprocate.
19 October: SPA formally initiates talks with Maoists.
22 November: SPA and Maoists sign twelve-point
agreement as basis for joint movement against the king to
establish "total democracy".
28 November: Prachanda announces CPN(M) central
committee meeting has endorsed joint movement with
SPA.
2 December: Maoists extend unilateral ceasefire by one
month; government again does not reciprocate.
2006
January: Maoists end four-month ceasefire with
numerous attacks across country.
8 February: Government holds municipal elections; SPA
and most other parties boycott.
5 April: SPA general strike and Maoist blockades
launched; start of "people's movement".
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 32
6-24 April: Movement continues with growing public
support, clashes between police and protesters and mass
defiance of curfews; king's offer to appoint SPA prime
minister rejected (21 April); King surrenders power and
reinstates parliament (24 April).
25 April: Maoists call to continue the movement greeted
with public indifference.
26 April: Maoists announce three-month unilateral
ceasefire.
30 April: Girija Prasad Koirala takes oath as prime
minister; formally invites Maoists for talks.
3 May: Government announces indefinite ceasefire;
withdraws "terrorist" tag and arrest warrants against
Maoists leaders.
13 May: CPN(M) announces its central committee has
approved ten-point roadmap for peace talks.
18 May: Parliamentary proclamation asserts sovereignty
and curtails king's powers.
26 May: Government and Maoists sign 25-point ceasefire
code of conduct.
16 June: Prachanda's first public appearance in
Kathmandu at meeting with SPA leaders to sign eight-
point agreement (to dissolve parliament, form interim
government and invite UN to monitor arms); form interim
constitution drafting committee (which submitted
incomplete draft on 24 August).
Late June: dissatisfaction within SPA over promise to
dissolve parliament.
2 July: Government writes unilaterally to UN S-G Kofi
Annan proposing decommissioning of Maoist amis.
12 July: Government annouces $2 billion budget for fiscal
year 2006-2007.
24 July: Maoists write separately to UN protesting
reference to "decommissioning"; serious loss of trust
between government and Maoists.
27 July-3 August: UN assessment mission visits Nepal.
28 July: Maoists extend ceasefire for three months.
9 August: Government and Maoists agree parallel five-
point letters to UN requesting monitoring of arms and
elections.
27 August-2 September: CPN(M) central committee
conditionally endorses talks and forms ten-member high-
level talks team under Prachanda but also prepares
fallback plan for resumed struggle.
13 September: Maoists call, then lift, nationwide
shutdown amid rumours army is transporting Indian arms
to Kathmandu.
25 August: UN Secretary-General appoints Ian Martin as
his Personal Representative to the peace process.
28 September: Parliament passes Army Act increasing
democratic control.
Late September: more than a dozen private meetings
between Koirala, Prachanda and close aides puts talks
back on track.
8, 10, 12 & 15 October: SPA-Maoist summit meetings
announce constituent assembly election date of June 2007
but fail to agree other issues.
29 October: Maoists extend ceasefire for three months.
31 October: Indian Ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee
holds first meeting with Maoist leaders.
8 November: SPA-Maoist summit meeting produces
signed peace understanding; resolves some disputes over
arms management and interim institutions.
20 November: Rayamajhi Commission submits report
recommending action against 202 people including King
Gyanendra; government forms implementation committee
(27 November).
21 November: Government and Maoists sign
Comprehensive Peace Agreement formally declaring end
to the war.
28 November: Government and Maoists sign Agreement
on Monitoring ofthe Management of Arms and Armies,
witnessed by UN.
1 December: UN Security Council welcomes CPA,
approves initial deployment of monitors and sends full
assessment mission; deadline for formation of interim
government missed.
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 33
APPENDIX C
ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an
independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation,
with nearly 120 staff members on five continents, working
through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy
to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.
Crisis Group's approach is grounded in field research.
Teams of political analysts are located within or close by
countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of
violent conflict. Based on information and assessments
from the field, it produces analytical reports containing
practical recommendations targeted at key international
decision-takers. Crisis Group also publishes CrisisWatch,
a twelve-page monthly bulletin, providing a succinct
regular update on the state of play in all the most significant
situations of conflict or potential conflict around the world.
Crisis Group's reports and briefing papers are distributed
widely by email and printed copy to officials in
foreign ministries and international organisations and
made available simultaneously on the website,
www.crisisgroup.org. Crisis Group works closely with
governments and those who influence them, including
the media, to highlight its crisis analyses and to generate
support for its policy prescriptions.
The Crisis Group Board - which includes prominent
figures from the fields of politics, diplomacy, business
and the media - is directly involved in helping to bring
the reports and recommendations to the attention of senior
policy-makers around the world. Crisis Group is co-chaired
by the former European Commissioner for External
Relations Christopher Patten and former U.S. Ambassador
Thomas Pickering. Its President and Chief Executive
since January 2000 has been former Australian Foreign
Minister Gareth Evans.
Crisis Group's international headquarters are in Brussels,
with advocacy offices in Washington DC (where it is
based as a legal entity), New York, London and Moscow.
The organisation currently operates thirteen field offices
(in Amman, Bishkek, Bogota, Cairo, Dakar, Dushanbe,
Islamabad, Jakarta, Kabul, Nairobi, Pristina, Seoul and
Tbilisi), with analysts working in over 50 crisis-affected
countries and territories across four continents. In
Africa, this includes Angola, Burundi, Cote d'lvoire,
Democratic Republic ofthe Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Guinea, Liberia, Rwanda, the Sahel region, Sierra Leone,
Somalia, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe; in Asia,
Afghanistan, Indonesia, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Myanmar/Burma, Nepal, North Korea, Pakistan, Sri
Lanka, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; in
Europe, Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova,
Montenegro and Serbia; in the Middle East, the whole
region from North Africa to Iran; and in Latin
America, Colombia, the Andean region and Haiti.
Crisis Group raises funds from governments, charitable
foundations, companies and individual donors. The
following governmental departments and agencies
currently provide funding: Australian Agency for
International Development, Austrian Federal Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International
Trade, Canadian International Development Agency,
Canadian International Development Research Centre,
Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dutch Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, German Foreign
Office, Irish Department of Foreign Affairs, Japanese
International Cooperation Agency, Principality of
Liechtenstein Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Luxembourg
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, New Zealand Agency for
International Development, Royal Danish Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Swiss
Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Turkish
Ministry of Foreign affairs, United Kingdom Foreign
and Commonwealth Office, United Kingdom Department
for International Development, U.S. Agency for
International Development.
Foundation and private sector donors include Carnegie
Corporation of New York, Carso Foundation, Compton
Foundation, Ford Foundation, Fundacion DARA
International, Iara Lee and George Gund III Foundation,
William & Flora Hewlett Foundation, Hunt Alternatives
Fund, Kimsey Foundation, Korea Foundation, John D.
& Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Charles
Stewart Mott Foundation, Open Society Institute, Pierre
and Pamela Omidyar Fund, Victor Pinchuk Foundation,
Ploughshares Fund, Provictimis Foundation, Radcliffe
Foundation, Sigrid Rausing Trust, Rockefeller
Philanthropy Advisors and Viva Trust and.
November 2006
Further information about Crisis Group can be obtained from our website: www.crisisgroup.org
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 34
APPENDIX D
CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA SINCE 2003
CENTRAL ASIA
Cracks in the Marble: Turkmenistan's Failing Dictatorship,
Asia Report N°44, 17 January 2003 (also available in Russian)
Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?, Asia
Report N°46, 18 February 2003 (also available in Russian)
Tajikistan: A Roadmap for Development, Asia Report N°51,
24 April 2003
CentralAsia: Last Chance for Change, Asia Briefing N°25, 29
April 2003 (also available in Russian)
Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb ut-Tahrir,
Asia Report N°58, 30 June 2003
CentralAsia: Islam and the State, Asia Report N°59,10 July 2003
Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation, Asia
Report N°66, 31 October 2003
Is Radical Islam Inevitable in Central Asia? Priorities for
Engagement, Asia Report N°72, 22 December 2003
The Failure of Reform in Uzbekistan: Ways Forward for the
International Community, Asia Report N°76, 11 March 2004
(also available in Russian)
Tajikistan's Politics: Confrontation or Consolidation?, Asia
Briefing N°33, 19 May 2004
Political Transition in Kyrgyzstan: Problems and Prospects,
Asia Report N°81, 11 August 2004
Repression and Regression in Turkmenistan: A New
International Strategy, Asia Report N°85, 4 November 2004
(also available in Russian)
The Curse of Cotton: Central Asia's Destructive Monoculture,
Asia Report N°93, 28 February 2005 (also available in Russian)
Kyrgyzstan: After the Revolution, Asia Report N°97, 4 May
2005 (also available in Russian)
Uzbekistan: The Andijon Uprising, Asia Briefing N°38, 25
May 2005 (also available in Russian)
Kyrgyzstan: A Faltering State, Asia Report N°109, 16 December
2005 (also available in Russian)
Uzbekistan: In for the Long Haul, Asia Briefing N°45, 16
February 2006
Central Asia: What Role for the European Union?, Asia
Report N° 113, 10 April 2006
Kyrgyzstan's Prison System Nightmare, Asia Report N°118,
16 August 2006
Uzbekistan: Europe's Sanctions Matter, Asia Briefing N°54,
6 November 2006
Kyrgyzstan on the Edge, Asia Briefing N°55, 9 November
2006
NORTH EAST ASIA
Taiwan Strait I: What's Left of "One China"?, Asia Report
N°53, 6 June 2003
Taiwan Strait II: The Risk of War, Asia Report N°54,6 June 2003
Taiwan Strait III: The Chance of Peace, Asia Report N°55, 6
June 2003
North Korea: A Phased Negotiation Strategy, Asia Report N°61,
1 August 2003
Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might
Look, Asia Report N°75, 26 February 2004
North Korea: Where Next for the Nuclear Talks?, Asia Report
N°87, 15 November 2004 (also available in Korean and in
Russian)
Korea Backgrounder: How the South Views its Brother from
Another Planet, Asia Report N°89, 14 December 2004 (also
available in Korean and in Russian)
North Korea: Can the Iron Fist Accept the Invisible Hand?,
Asia Report N°96, 25 April 2005 (also available in Korean and
in Russian)
Japan and North Korea: Bones of Contention, Asia Report
N°100, 27 June 2005 (also available in Korean)
China and Taiwan: Uneasy Detente, Asia Briefing N°42, 21
September 2005
North East Asia's Undercurrents of Conflict, Asia Report
N°108, 15 December 2005 (also available in Korean)
China and North Korea: Comrades Forever?, Asia Report
N°l 12, 1 February 2006 (also available in Korean)
After North Korea's Missile Launch: Are the Nuclear Talks Dead?,
Asia Briefing N°52,9 August 2006 (also available in Korean)
Perilous Journeys: The Plight of North Koreans in China and
Beyond, Asia Report N°122,26 October 2006
North Korea's Nuclear Test: The Fallout, Crisis Group Asia
Bnefing N°56,13 November 2006
SOUTH ASIA
Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice, Asia
Report N°45, 28 January 2003
Afghanistan: Women and Reconstruction, Asia Report N°48.
14 March 2003 (also available in Dari)
Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military, Asia Report N°49,
20 March 2003
Nepal Backgrounder: Ceasefire - Soft Landing or Strategic
Pause?, Asia Report N°50, 10 April 2003
Afghanistan's Flawed Constitutional Process, Asia Report
N°56, 12 June 2003 (also available in Dari)
Nepal: Obstacles to Peace, Asia Report N°57, 17 June 2003
Afghanistan: The Problem of Pashtun Alienation, Asia
Report N°62, 5 August 2003
Peacebuilding in Afghanistan, Asia Report N°64,29 September 2003
Disarmament and Reintegration in Afghanistan, Asia Report
N°65, 30 September 2003
Nepal- Back to the Gun, Asia Briefing N°28, 22 October 2003
Kashmir: The View from Islamabad, Asia Report N°68, 4
December 2003
Kashmir: The View from New Delhi, Asia Report N°69, 4
December 2003
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 35
Kashmir: Learning from the Past, Asia Report N°70, 4
December 2003
Afghanistan:  The Constitutional Loya Jirga, Afghanistan
Briefing N°29, 12 December 2003
Unfulfilled Promises: Pakistan's Failure to Tackle Extremism,
Asia Report N°73, 16 January 2004
Nepal: Dangerous Plans for Village Militias, Asia Briefing
N°30, 17 February 2004 (also available in Nepali)
Devolution in Pakistan: Reform or Regression?, Asia Report
N°77, 22 March 2004
Elections and Security in Afghanistan, Asia Briefing N°31, 30
March 2004
India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace,
Asia Report N°79, 24 June 2004
Pakistan: Reforming the Education Sector, Asia Report N°84,
7 October 2004
Building Judicial Independence in Pakistan, Asia Report
N°86, 10 November 2004
Afghanistan: From Presidential to Parliamentary Elections,
Asia Report N°88, 23 November 2004
Nepal's Royal Coup: Making a Bad Situation Worse, Asia
Report N°91, 9 February 2005
Afghanistan: Getting Disarmament Back on  Track, Asia
Briefing N°35, 23 February 2005
Nepal: Responding to the Royal Coup, Asia Briefing N°35,
24 February 2005
Nepal: Dealing with a Human Rights Crisis, Asia Report N°94,
24 March 2005
The State of Sectarianism in Pakistan, Asia Report N°95, 18
April 2005
Political Parties in Afghanistan, Asia Briefing N°39,2 June 2005
Towards a Lasting Peace in Nepal: The Constitutional Issues,
Asia Report N°99, 15 June 2005
Afghanistan Elections: Endgame or New Beginning?, Asia
Report N° 101, 21 July 2005
Nepal: Beyond Royal Rule, Asia Briefing N°41,15 September 2005
Authoritarianism and Political Party Reform in Pakistan,
Asia Report N°102, 28 September 2005
Nepal's Maoists: Their Aims, Structure and Strategy, Asia
Report N°104, 27 October 2005
Pakistan's Local Polls: Shoring Up Military Rule, Asia Briefing
N°43, 22 November 2005
Nepal's New Alliance: The Mainstream Parties and the Maoists,
Asia Report 106,28 November 2005
Rebuilding the Afghan State: The European Union's Role,
Asia Report N°107, 30 November 2005
Nepal: Electing Chaos, Asia Report N° 111, 31 January 2006
Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake, Asia Briefing
N°46, 15 March 2006
Nepal's Crisis: Mobilising Intemational Influence, Asia Briefing
N°49,19Apnl2006
Nepal: From People Power to Peace?, Asia Report N° 115, 10
May 2006
Afghanistan's New Legislature: Making Democracy Work, Asia
Report N°l 16,15 May 2006
India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, Asia
Briefing N°51, 15 June 2006
Pakistan: the Worsening Conflict in Balochistan, Asia Report
N°119, 14 September 2006
Bangladesh Today, Asia Report N°121, 23 October 2006
Countering Afghanistan's Insurgency: No Quick Fixes, Asia
Report N°123, 2 November 2006
Sri Lanka: The Failure of the Peace Process, Asia Report
N°124, 28 November 2006
Pakistan's Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants, Asia Report
N°125, 11 December 2006
SOUTH EAST ASIA
Aceh: A Fragile Peace, Asia Report N°47, 27 February 2003
(also available in Indonesian)
Dividing Papua: How Not to Do It, Asia Briefing N°24, 9
April 2003
Myanmar Backgrounder: Ethnic Minority Politics, Asia Report
N°52, 7 May 2003
Aceh: Why the Military Option Still Won't Work, Indonesia
Briefing N°26, 9 May 2003 (also available in Indonesian)
Indonesia: Managing Decentralisation and Conflict in
South Sulawesi, Asia Report N°60, 18 July 2003
Aceh: How Not to Win Hearts and Minds, Indonesia Briefing
N°27, 23 July 2003
Jemaah Islamiyah in South East Asia: Damaged but Still
Dangerous, Asia Report N°63, 26 August 2003
The Perils of Private Security in Indonesia- Guards and Militias on
Bali andLombok, Asia Report N°67,7 November 2003
Indonesia Backgrounder: A Guide to the 2004 Elections, Asia
Report N°71, 18 December 2003
Indonesia Backgrounder: Jihad in Central Sulawesi, Asia
Report N°74, 3 February 2004
Myanmar: Sanctions, Engagement or Another Way Forward?,
Asia Report N°78,26 April 2004
Indonesia: Violence Erupts Again in Ambon, Asia Briefing
N°32, 17 May 2004
Southern Philippines Backgrounder: Terrorism and the Peace
Process, Asia Report N°80, 13 July 2004 (also available in
Indonesian)
Myanmar: Aid to the Border Areas, Asia Report N°82, 9
September 2004
Indonesia Backgrounder: Why Salafism and Terrorism Mostly
Don't Mix, Asia Report N°83, 13 September 2004
Burma/Myanmar: Update on HIV/AIDS policy, Asia Briefing
N°34, 16 December 2004
Indonesia: Rethinking Internal Security Strategy, Asia Report
N°90, 20 December 2004
Recycling Militants in Indonesia: Darul Islam and the
Australian Embassy Bombing, Asia Report N°92, 22 February
2005 (also available in Indonesian)
Decentralisation and Conflict in Indonesia: The Mamasa
Case, Asia Briefing N°37, 3 May 2005
Southern Thailand: Insurgency, Not Jihad, Asia Report N°98,
18 May 2005 (also available in Thai)
Aceh: A New Chance for Peace, Asia Briefing N°40,15 August 2005
Weakening Indonesia's Mujahidin Networks: Lessons from
Maluku andPoso, Asia Report N°103, 13 October 2005 (also
available in Indonesian)
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 36
Thailand's Emergency Decree: No Solution, Asia Report
N°105, 18 November 2005 (also available in Thai)
Aceh: So far, So Good, Asia Update Briefing N°44, 13 December
2005 (also available in Indonesian)
Philippines Terrorism- The Role of Militant Islamic Converts,
Asia Report N°l 10, 19 December 2005
Papua: The Dangers of Shutting Down Dialogue, Asia Briefing
N°47, 23 March 2006 (also available in Indonesian)
Aceh: Now for the Hard Part, Asia Briefing N°48,29 March 2006
Managing Tensions on the Timor-Leste/Indonesia Border,
Asia Briefing N°50, 4 May 2006
Terrorism in Indonesia: Noordin's Networks, Asia Report N°l 14,
5 May 2006 (also available in Indonesian)
Islamic Law and Criminal Justice in Aceh, Asia Report N°l 17,
31 July 2006 (also available in Indonesian)
Papua: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions, Asia Briefing
N°53, 5 September 2006
Resolving   Timor-Leste's   Crisis,   Asia   Report   N°120,   10
October 2006
Aceh's Local Elections: The Role ofthe Free Aceh Movement
(GAM), Asia Briefing N°57, 29 November 2006
Myanmar: New Threats to Humanitarian Aid, Asia Briefing
N°58, 8 December 2006
OTHER REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS
For Crisis Group reports and briefing papers on:
Asia
Africa
Europe
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
Thematic Issues
CrisisWatch
please visit our website www.crisisgroup.org
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 3 7
APPENDIX D
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES
Co-Chairs
Christopher Patten
Former European Commissioner for External Relations,
Governor of Hong Kong and UK Cabinet Minister: Chancellor of
Oxford University
Thomas Pickering
Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Russia, India, Israel, Jordan,
El Salvador and Nigeria
President & CEO
Gareth Evans
Former Foreign Minister of Australia
Executive Committee
Cheryl Carolus
Former South African High Commissioner to the UK and
Secretary General ofthe ANC
Maria Livanos Cattaui*
Former Secretary-General, International Chamber of Commerce
Yoichi Funabashi
Chief Diplomatic Correspondent & Columnist, The Asahi Shimbun,
Japan
Frank Giustra
Chairman, Endeavour Financial, Canada
Stephen Solarz
Former U.S. Congressman
George Soros
Chairman, Open Society Institute
Par Stenback
Former Foreign Minister of Finland
*Vice-Chair
Morton Abramowitz
Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State and Ambassador to Turkey
Adnan Abu-Odeh
Former Political Adviser to King Abdullah II and to King Hussein
and Jordan Permanent Representative to the UN
Kenneth Adelman
Former U.S. Ambassador and Director ofthe Arms Control and
Disarmament Agency
Ersin Arioglu
Member of Parliament, Turkey: Chairman Emeritus, YapiMerkezi
Group
Shlomo Ben-Ami
Former Foreign Minister of Israel
Lakhdar Brahimi
Former Special Adviser to the UN Secretary-General and Algerian
Foreign Minister
Zbigniew Brzezinski
Former U.S. National Security Advisor to the President
Kim Campbell
Former Prime Minister of Canada: Secretary General, Club of Madrid
Naresh Chandra
Former Indian Cabinet Secretary and Ambassador of India to the U.S.
Joaquim Alberto Chissano
Former President of Mozambique
Victor Chu
Chairman, First Eastern Investment Group, Hong Kong
Wesley Clark
Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Pat Cox
Former President of European Parliament
Uffe Ellemann-Jensen
Former Foreign Minister of Denmark
Mark Eyskens
Former Prime Minister of Belgium
Joschka Fischer
Former Foreign Minister of Germany
Leslie H. Gelb
President Emeritus of Council on Foreign Relations, U.S.
Carla Hills
Former Secretary of Housing and U.S. Trade Representative
Lena Hjelm-Wallen
Former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister,
Sweden
Swanee Hunt
Chair of Inclusive Security: Women Waging Peace: former U.S.
Ambassador to Austria
Anwar Ibrahim
Former Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia
Asma Jahangir
UN Special Rapporteur on the Freedom of Religion or Belief
Chairperson, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan
Nancy Kassebaum Baker
Former U.S. Senator
James V. Kimsey
Founder and Chairman Emeritus of America Online, Inc. (AOL)
Wim Kok
Former Prime Minister of Netherlands
Ricardo Lagos
Former President of Chile
Joanne Leedom-Ackerman
Novelist and journalist, U.S.
 Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Crisis Group Asia Report N°126, 15 December 2006
Page 38
Ayo Obe
Chair of Steering Committee of World Movement for Democracy,
Nigeria
Christine Ockrent
Journalist and author, France
Victor Pinchuk
Founder oflnterpipe Scientific and Industrial Production Group
Samantha Power
Author and Professor, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard
Fidel V. Ramos
Former President of Philippines
Ghassan Salame
Former Minister, Lebanon: Professor of International Relations, Paris
Douglas Schoen
Founding Partner of Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, U.S.
Thorvald Stoltenberg
Former Foreign Minister of Norway
Ernesto Zedillo
Former President of Mexico; Director, Yale Center for the Study
of Globalization
INTERNATIONAL ADVISORY COUNCIL
Crisis Group's International Advisory Council comprises major individual and corporate donors who contribute their advice
and experience to Crisis Group on a regular basis.
Rita E. Hauser (Chair)
Elliott F. Kulick (Deputy Chair)
Marc Abramowitz
APCO Worldwide Inc.
Ed Bachrach
Patrick E. Benzie
Stanley M. Bergman and
Edward J. Bergman
BHP Billiton
Harry Bookey and Pamela Bass-
Bookey
John Chapman Chester
Carso Foundation
Chevron
Citigroup
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce
Richard H. Cooper
Credit Suisse
John Ehara
Equinox Partners
Konrad Fischer
Alan Griffiths
Iara Lee & George Gund III
Foundation
Jewish World Watch
George Kellner
Shiv Vikram Khemka
Scott J. Lawlor
George Loening
Douglas Makepeace
McKinsey & Company
Najib A. Mikati
PT Newmont Pacific Nusantara
(Mr. Robert Humberson)
Michael L. Riordan
Tilleke & Gibbins
Baron Guy Ullens de Schooten
Stanley Weiss
Westfreld Group
Woodside Energy Ltd
Don Xia
Yapi Merkezi Construction and
Industry Inc.
Yasuyo Yamazaki
Shinji Yazaki
Sunny Yoon
SENIOR ADVISERS
Crisis Group's Senior Advisers are former Board Members (not presently holding national government executive
office) who maintain an association with Crisis Group, and whose advice and support are called on from time to time.
Martti Ahtisaari
(Chairman Emeritus)
Diego Arria
Paddy Ashdown
Zainab Bangura
Christoph Bertram
Jorge Castaneda
Alain Destexhe
Marika Fahlen
Stanley Fischer
Malcolm Fraser
Bronislaw Geremek
I.K. Gujral
Max Jakobson
Todung Mulya Lubis
Allan J. MacEachen
Barbara McDougall
Matthew McHugh
George J. Mitchell
(Chairman Emeritus)
Surin Pitsuwan
Cyril Ramaphosa
George Robertson
Michel Rocard
Volker Ruehe
Mohamed Sahnoun
Salim A. Salim
William Taylor
Leo Tindemans
Ed van Thijn
Shirley Williams
Grigory Yavlinski
Uta Zapf

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