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Uncertainty in land allocation decisions for Vancouver Island : an application of fuzzy multiple objective programming

University of British Columbia

An increasing amount of weight is placed on non-timber values when management or allocation plans for woodlands are considered. In addition, the public is becoming more involved in the planning process. Both trends are evident on Vancouver Island, particularly in the recently completed work of the Commission on Resources and Environment (CORE), a multiple interest group process. A great deal of uncertainty is associated with decision-making situations of this type, due both to the complexity of the problem and the necessity to reconcile conflicting and poorly defined objectives. This study explored the use of fuzzy set theory as a tool for incorporating uncertainty into models used to inform decision-making processes. Two types of uncertainty were considered; vagueness in the identification and ranking of objectives and imprecision in the specification of problem parameters. Fuzzy set theory was used to construct a fuzzy multiple objective linear program (FMOLP) to capture the vagueness of objectives for the land-use allocation problem on Vancouver Island. This model was then extended through the use of possibility theory to a fuzzy possibilistic multiple objective linear program (FPMOLP), allowing consideration of the problem with imprecise parameters. Results were compared to those from a more traditional goal programming approach. Results from the FMOLP provided a better solution than did the goal programming approach when measured by the criteria of the degree of satisfaction of the problem's objectives. The FMOLP provided a higher degree of satisfaction to the majority of objectives considered, and yielded an allocation scheme where more of the land base was in multiple use and protected areas than did the goal program. Results from the FPMOLP were interpreted as a sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to uncertainty of parameter specification. It was demonstrated that the solution was sensitive to the level of parameter uncertainty considere. The methodology employed allowed only for general insights into this problem, proving a poor tool for this type of analysis.

Thesis/Dissertation

application/pdf

2009-01-19

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http://hdl.handle.net/2429/3781

Agricultural Economics

University of British Columbia

UBCV

DSpace