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UBC Theses and Dissertations
Economic risk quantification of toll highway projects Hatakama, Toshiaki
Abstract
The objectives of this thesis are to model economic and financial performance of user-pay highway facilities, to explore the sensitivity of project performance to changes in primary variables, to measure the uncertainty surrounding user-pay highway facilities, and to explore ways of reducing the uncertainty. Special attention is given to the revenue phase. The model consists of three levels: work package/revenue stream level; project performance level; and project decision level. The model calculates work package duration, work package cost, and revenue stream for the work package/revenue stream level; project duration, project cost, and project revenue for the project performance level; and project's net present value (NPV) for the project decision level. They are described by their expected value, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. This model is applied to a numerical example patterned after a Japanese project to carry out a sensitivity and risk analysis, and highly sensitive primary variables are identified. The case study may be viewed as a comparison of current Japanese deterministic feasibility analysis with a probabilistic one, using the same underlying project model. Risk management strategies are presented, and their impacts on overall project risks are measured. Results from applying the model to a sample project show that it is very difficult for a highway operator alone to reduce risks. It is suggested that it is very important that risk sharing be negotiated with the government and some guarantee of support be received.
Item Metadata
Title |
Economic risk quantification of toll highway projects
|
Creator | |
Publisher |
University of British Columbia
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Date Issued |
1994
|
Description |
The objectives of this thesis are to model economic and
financial performance of user-pay highway facilities, to
explore the sensitivity of project performance to changes
in primary variables, to measure the uncertainty
surrounding user-pay highway facilities, and to explore
ways of reducing the uncertainty. Special attention is
given to the revenue phase.
The model consists of three levels: work package/revenue
stream level; project performance level; and project
decision level. The model calculates work package
duration, work package cost, and revenue stream for the
work package/revenue stream level; project duration,
project cost, and project revenue for the project
performance level; and project's net present value (NPV)
for the project decision level. They are described by
their expected value, standard deviation, skewness, and
kurtosis.
This model is applied to a numerical example patterned
after a Japanese project to carry out a sensitivity and
risk analysis, and highly sensitive primary variables are identified. The case study may be viewed as a comparison
of current Japanese deterministic feasibility analysis with
a probabilistic one, using the same underlying project
model. Risk management strategies are presented, and their
impacts on overall project risks are measured.
Results from applying the model to a sample project show
that it is very difficult for a highway operator alone to
reduce risks. It is suggested that it is very important
that risk sharing be negotiated with the government and
some guarantee of support be received.
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Extent |
9271985 bytes
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Genre | |
Type | |
File Format |
application/pdf
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Language |
eng
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Date Available |
2009-03-02
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Provider |
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
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Rights |
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.
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DOI |
10.14288/1.0050408
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URI | |
Degree | |
Program | |
Affiliation | |
Degree Grantor |
University of British Columbia
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Graduation Date |
1994-11
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Campus | |
Scholarly Level |
Graduate
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Aggregated Source Repository |
DSpace
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Item Media
Item Citations and Data
Rights
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.