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Corry, Diego

University of British Columbia

This thesis investigates the intricate relationship between digital discourse, specifically social media sentiment, and stock price within the Canadian oil and gas industry from 2020-2021. The research comprises two distinct yet complementary studies that collectively shed light on the complex dynamics at play. The first study examines the predictive capacity of non-financial Twitter sentiment on stock prices across nine prominent Canadian oil and gas companies. Employing Granger causality tests, the findings reveal no significant influence of social media sentiment on stock prices within the sample. This contradicts previous studies suggesting a predictive relationship and highlights the potential dominance of market-level sentiment over individual company sentiment, as well as the diminished impact of non-financial discourse on investor decisions. The study bolsters past research which indicates the diminishing power of external stakeholders over firms in the digital era. The second study delves deeper into the relationship between digital discourse and stock price, focusing on Enbridge Inc. and TC Energy Corp. Granger causality tests reveal statistically significant forecasting abilities of Twitter sentiment on stock prices during shortened timeframes surrounding peak Twitter volume dates for these two companies. However, qualitative analysis suggests that stock price movement may be affected more by traditional media coverage than social media sentiment. The findings suggest that the impact of digital discourse on stock price may be company-specific and depend on the nature and intensity of the discourse. Nationally viewed political events or controversies appear to be potential catalysts for movement on stock prices. Additionally, specific RepRisk categories related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors were shared between Enbridge and TC Energy, indicating their potential salience in this relationship.

Text

2024-07-02

Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/88547

Forestry

University of British Columbia

UBCV

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/