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Projecting catch potential for British Columbia First Nations under climate change and fisheries management scenarios Anyang, Adepa Akosua

Abstract

Human activities, particularly climate change and over-exploitation, negatively impact marine biodiversity and seafood availability which is a source of food for many coastal communities to be negatively impacted. Coastal First Nations in British Columbia are inherently connected to marine life through fishing - thus, it's crucial to explore climate change and fisheries' effects on fish stocks. This study assessed the potential seafood availability from 24 marine species that are important for four First Nations in British Columbia: Skidegate, ‘Namgis, Tla’amin, and Nuxalk (Bella Coola). This study estimated that in 2018, the marine food harvest for the communities totaled approximately 28.3, 27.0, 27.9, and 19.0 tonnes, respectively. Using a Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope model, the study projected potential changes in seafood availability, for the four First Nations under climate change and fishing scenarios. Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and eulachon (Thaleichthys pacificus) were most sensitive to climate change, with projected declines by 2090 under the high emissions scenarios, while pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), Nuttall’s cockle (Clainocardium nuttallii), and dolly varden trout (Salvelinus malma malma) were more resilient to climate change. Tla’amin faced the greatest risk of climate change on potential seafood availability, with an average of 15.8% decline under the higher emissions scenario while Skidegate was projected to be the least affected. The effect of fishing scenarios on seafood availability was shown to play a significant role in seafood availability. Under a 'conservation-focused' scenario i.e., fishing level in British Columbia waters is managed at half of the level at maximum sustainable yield (MSY), the model projected 58.5% higher seafood availability to the four coastal First Nations by 2090 relative to 2018, compared to managing at MSY. In contrast, fishing level at iv 50% above MSY led to a 55.5% decrease in seafood availability. The study underscores the intricate relationship between climate change, fisheries management, and seafood availability for coastal First Nations in British Columbia. The research suggests a context-based strategy, incorporating First Nations' needs, as necessary foundation for effective climate adaptation and fisheries management.

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International