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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Towards improved thermal comfort predictions and building energy savings : Bayesian modelling of indoor environmental design conditions Crosby, Sarah

Abstract

The judgment of thermal comfort is a cognitive process that is influenced, not only by measurable indoor environmental conditions but also by less tangible aspects of an occupant’s well-being and overall satisfaction. Recent studies have examined the multi-domain nature of thermal comfort to bridge the performance gap between model-predicted and measurements of thermal comfort. This thesis seeks to inform a well-known research gap with respect to standard models of thermal comfort: that seminal data-informed models have not always accurately predicted true thermal comfort observations from independent field studies. This thesis presents a novel approach that involves the use of Bayesian inference to predict thermal comfort as a function of both thermal and non-thermal metrics of indoor environmental quality. Bayesian regression was performed on a large field dataset to investigate whether perceived thermal comfort can be attributed in a measurable and/or significant manner to one or several non-thermal parameters of indoor environmental quality. Posterior results revealed that higher CO₂ concentrations are independently correlated with lower incidences of thermal satisfaction in open-plan offices. At indoor temperatures of 23.5 ℃, the probability of an occupant feeling thermally satisfied at measured CO₂ levels of 550 ppm was 0.62 [0.54 - 0.69, 95% CrI]. This decreased to 0.28 [0.17-0.42, 95% CrI] at 750 ppm. Further, this is the first work to demonstrate that predictions of thermal comfort can be improved upon adding measurements of indoor CO₂ concentrations. The new data-driven thermal comfort model is integrated into a building energy model framework to predict occupants’ thermal satisfaction based on thermal indoor environmental conditions and ventilation rates. Four different post-COVID- 19 occupancy schedules were investigated to reflect and compare different occupancy profiles for post-COVID-19 hybrid work models. The simulation results showed that it might be possible to increase the ventilation rates with minimal building heating energy demand increase while maintaining the levels of occupants’ thermal comfort. This thesis presented a solution for building managers that have been under pressure to increase the current amounts of fresh air to lower the risk of spreading the COVID-19 virus, and other diseases, indoors.

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International