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Traffic distribution and relief model based upon staggered working hours. Taggart, James Stewart 1968

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A TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION AND RELIEF MODEL BASED UPON STAGGERED WORKING HOURS by J. Stewart Taggart A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS In the School of COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard. THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA April 1968. In presenting t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the re q u i r e -ments f o r an advanced degree at The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r reference and study. I fu r t h e r agree that permission f o r extensive copying o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s representatives. I t i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my w r i t t e n permission. Department ofCt7H*l*UA**£ 0 «•* The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada i i ABSTRACT North American c i t i e s are becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t t o l i v e i n and to work i n l a r g e l y because they are d i f f i c u l t t o move around i n . For many c i t i e s v e h i c l e congestion has reached a saturation l e v e l f o r s t r e e t s and highways thus creating the problem of t r a f f i c congestion. This problem i s u n i v e r s a l l y understood to be the urban trans p o r t a t i o n problem. The t r a n s p o r t a t i o n problem i s l a r g e l y a r e s u l t o f the growing con-ce n t r a t i o n of population and economic a c t i v i t i e s w i t h i n a small c e n t r a l area o f land. Growth of population combined with r i s i n g incomes and inc r e a s i n g car ownership rates are c o n t i n u a l l y increasing passenger and f r e i g h t movement. With the increase o f motor v e h i c l e s and v e h i c l e usage the s t r e e t system has proven inadequate t o meet the increased demands f o r movement placed upon i t . This inadequacy i s p a r t i c u l a r l y evident i n the c e n t r a l urban areas during two r e l a t i v e l y short periods of the day. These periods of peak t r a f f i c demand are a function of the journey to work. They occur twice i n the t y p i c a l day, the f i r s t being i n the morning, the second occurring i n the l a t e afternoon. At other times during the day and night the s t r e e t system, under normal conditions, i s capable of handling the t r a f f i c demand. Thus there appears a need t o bridge the growing gap between the demand f o r and supply o f street f a c i l i t i e s at peak hours. The basic approaches to the problem o f bringing the demand f o r and supply o f s t r e e t f a c i l i t i e s to a state o f equilibrium are: t o provide a d d i t i o n a l lanes of new or improved f a c i l i t i e s to meet the t r a f f i c demands; to design developing areas on the basis o f transportation demands and supply being i n a state of equilibriumj or t o re-assign t r a f f i c to e x i s t i n g s t r e e t f a c i l i t i e s i n accordance with the capacity of these f a c i l i t i e s . i i i The l a s t method can be accomplished by staggering working hours. The purpose of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o demonstrate the hypothesis: that by the staggering of working hours i n the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t , the peak congestion problem can be r e l i e v e d . The study demonstrates the e f f e c t of staggering hours, i n quantitative terms, on a p a r t i c u l a r t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t y , the F i r s t Narrows Bridge, Vancouver, B r i t i s h Columbia. The technique o f staggering hours, i n t h i s study, i s used t o l i m i t the volume o f t r a f f i c by modifying the demand upon the system. This i s accomplished by breaking the t o t a l demand i n t o smaller demand segments, by g i v i n g each segment a d i f f e r e n t deadline. This method can i n e f f e c t equate the demand with the supply over a given period o f time. By t h i s method the number o f v e h i c l e s a r r i v i n g at the entrance to an area o f r e s t r i c t e d capacity can be equated t o the supply or capacity. By applying t h i s method to the case study i t i s po s s i b l e t o demon-s t r a t e the e f f e c t s o f staggering i n e l i m i n a t i n g peak period congestion delay time due t o the l i m i t e d capacity o f a f a c i l i t y . Also determinable i s the extent that t r a f f i c loads need be d i s t r i b u t e d over a period of time and how much time would be needed t o e f f e c t economies i n the l e v e l o f s e r v i c e . To minimize the d i s r u p t i o n of the staggering of working hours, the C.B.D. was divided i n t o four c o n t r o l areas or zones based on dominant funct i o n . The s t a r t i n g times of the f u n c t i o n a l zones or c o n t r o l areas are arranged i n a work s t a r t i n g order so as to minimize f u n c t i o n a l d i s -r u p t i o n . I t i s concluded from the i l l u s t r a t i o n of the case study that some r e l i e f of congestion i s possible through the staggering o f working hours; and that t h i s method i s one contribution t o improving the a b i l i t y of the i n d i v i d u a l motorist to t r a v e l more economically and p o s s i b l y at a more rap i d r a t ^ . i v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT . . . . . i i i LIST OF TABLES v i i LIST OF FIGURES v i i i CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION . . . 1 II CONGESTION - ITS CAUSE AND EFFECT 13 i n THE JOURNEY TO WORK AND THE PEAK PROBLEM 28 IV FEASIBILITY OF STAGGERING HOURS 44 V METHOD AND CASE STUDY 54 VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 74 BIBLIOGRAPHY 80 y i -LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Average Non-Farm Income By Place of Residence -Canada, 1961 18 2 Passenger Automobile Registrations For U. S. and Canada 20 3 Trends In Transit Riding By Type Of Transit . . . . . . 20 4 Comparison Of Average Distances From C.B.D. Travelled In Peak and Off-Peak Periods 40 5 Average Cost For One Person To Travel One Mile 42 6 Reasons Against a Scheme For Staggered Hours 49 7 Work Starting Times 72 v i i LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Degree of Urbanization - Canada 15 2 Increase of Daytime Over Resident Population 31 3 Travel Cost-Volume Functions For Arterial Streets . . . 38 4 Peaks in the Hours of Beginning and Ending Work Before and After a Staggered Working Hours Plan . . . . 46 5 A Comparison of Speed-Volume Relations 56 6 Annual Traffic Growth First Narrows Bridge 61 7 Seasonal Variation In Traffic Flow First Narrows Bridge 61 8 Daily Volume Variation First Narrows Bridge 62 9 Fifteen Minute Variation Southbound First Narrows Bridge . 62 10 Morning Peak Southbound First Narrows Bridge . . . . . 63 11 Reduction of Congestion Due to Increased Capacity . . 66 12 Traffic - Arrivals and Capacity For Peak Direction Flow on First Narrows Bridge 67 13 C.B.D. Control Areas Differentiated By Function -Vancouver 69 14 Peak Period Vehicle Flows (Across First Narrows) Into Control Areas 70 v i i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I should l i k e t o thank those persons who have given advice and assistance that has been h e l p f u l i n the preparation o f t h i s t h e s i s . G r a t e f u l appreciation i s extended to Dr. H. Peter Oberlander f o r h i s con-s t r u c t i v e c r i t i c i s m and to my advisor, Dr. V. Set t y Pendakur, f o r h i s guidance and encouragement and t o my colleague, Mr. J . M. Lainsbury, f o r h i s assistance. I am g r a t e f u l as w e l l t o C e n t r a l Mortgage and Housing Corporation f o r t h e i r f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e . v 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION One of the most severe problems associated with living and working in North American cities has been and may continue to be traffic con-gestion. Traffic congestion is unlike most other city problems primarily because i t is usually not continuous. Normally traffic congestion occurs during two relatively short peak periods of the day, the first being in the morning and the second occurring in the late afternoon. These peaks, the result of the journey to work and return, are the great-est obstacle to acquiring a more smoothly functioning traffic network and are the principal cause of the urban transportation problem. The urban transportation problem is universally understood to be traffic congestion. The magnitude of this problem is largely a result of the present city form which has produced excessive crowding of population and economic activity into a small central area of the city, the central business district. (C.B.D.) Also growth of population and the move to the sub-urbs, combined with increasing incomes and rising car ownership, are continually multiplying the volume of passenger and freight movement. The effects of this problem are first suffered by the old central cities which l i e at the heart of the metropolitan area. As crowded and expensive travel conditions add to the inconvenience of movement, people endeavor to escape the congestion problem by seeking pleasanter business and living conditions in outlying areas. The result is that property values in the central city f a l l , stores stand vacant and the high and medium-income groups become suburbanites in the communities that sprawl 2 on the periphery o f every major c i t y . 1 Some of the main obstacles to acquiring a more e f f i c i e n t l y functioning t r a f f i c network, besides the phenomenon o f the peak or rush hour, are the obsolete structure of c i t i e s and the urban land s c a r c i t y . Major North American c i t i e s with b a s i c a l l y rectangular s t r e e t systems, were not designed to accommodate the present day volume of v e h i c u l a r t r a f f i c . Streets are often too narrow, e s p e c i a l l y when they serve the dual purpose of access and thoroughfare, not to mention the function of storage o f v e h i c l e s . An attempt t o re-adjust the urban structure f o r achieving greater t r a f f i c m o b i l i t y i s a formidable task. Not only i s i t t e c h n i c a l l y com-plex, but f i n a n c i a l l y almost impossible. In the f i r s t place land i s scarce, and what there i s i s extremely expensive. Secondly, added to the 2 land cost i s the expense of r e l o c a t i n g f a m i l i e s , stores and u t i l i t i e s . Furthermore, whenever urban land i s converted from p r i v a t e to public use a reduction i n c o l l e c t a b l e property taxes r e s u l t s . Few c i t i e s are amenable to a l o s s o f income. Good trans p o r t a t i o n characterized by an e f f i c i e n t functioning t r a f f i c network i s one of the most d i f f i c u l t things t o achieve; but i t i s a basic necessity. The object of c i t i e s i s m u l t i p l i c i t y o f choice. I t i s impossible t o take advantage o f m u l t i p l i c i t y of choice without being able to get around e a s i l y . But m u l t i p l i c i t y o f choice and intensive c i t y functions depend on immense concentrations of people, and an i n t r i c a t e •LSmerk G. M. Urban Transportation: The Federal Role Indiana U n i v e r s i t y Press, Bloomington 1965 p. 3. 2 S t o n i e r C. E. "Metropolitan T r a f f i c C r i s e s , " T r a f f i c  Quarterly V o l . I I , January 1957 pp. 2LV-231. 3 mingling of uses and complex interweaving of paths. The question is how to accommodate city transportation without destroying the related intricate and concentrated land use. While traffic is not an end in itself, cheap transportation is a contributing factor to the economic division of labor. Ready accessibility of centrally located markets is of particular importance, because i t determines the size of markets and the extent to which economies of large-scale production and d i s t r i -bution can be reaped. Congestion, by setting a limit and a premium upon the movement of persons and commodities, restricts the effectiveness with which the functions of centrally located markets can be performed. 3 The interaction among urban activities depends in large part on the transportation network for integrating the urban structure. Changes in the transportation operation will be reflected in the organization of economic activity throughout the urban space. These changes make them-selves felt as changes in the cost conditions of production and d i s t r i -bution. Where the system is poor, this interaction takes place only under conditions of high and increasing costs. Ideally the solution is to develop planned urban communities in which satisfactory transportation is possible. The transport system is a powerful variable in the comprehensive plan which, i f manipulated in various ways, should yield a particular land development pattern. Land development can not be accomplished without adequate transport access and, on the other hand, i t is the land activi-ties that develop the very demand for transportation. Proper balance is necessary to healthy land development and to a smoothly functioning transportation system. The goals of transportation planning are intimately geared to the general economy of the community and to the general welfare 3Beckmann, Martin. McGuire and Winston, Studies in the Economics  of Transportation Yale University Press, New Haven 1956 p. 95-4 of its residents. It follows that transportation planning must be co-ordinated within a framework of comprehensive planning for the community. Transportation should be thought of as a means to designing a more satisfactory environment. In the process, urban mobility would be i well served. Urban transportation has many functions. Properly planned, i t can make the urban environment more attractive, assist in guiding and stabilizing land use patterns, widen the range of employment opportunities for urban residents, improve regional accessibility for the movement of people and goods in both off-peak and peak travel hours and finally, strengthen the downtown center. Transportation planning is one component of comprehensive city planning, but the steps and procedures of both are interdependent. Transportation planning steps cannot be isolated from over-all compre-hensive city or regional planning. The role of comprehensive planning and the continuous planning process is to co-ordinate the many elements and goals of a community into a plan in order to permit a forward-moving community. One of the implicit goals of planning for good or bad seems to be the preservation of the central city. The decision to save downtown is shown by the large amounts of money spent in construction in that area both private and public, in new office building and in urban renewal.4 Some downtown interests are taking bold steps to modernize these central areas. There are often excellent opportunities of relating highway design to plans for re-design of the central area. Ideally, highway facilities and the central business district improvements should be ^"Transportation and the City" Architectural Forum Vol. 119 No. 4 Time Inc. Chicago October 1963 p. 63. 5 planned together to achieve co-ordination so as to alleviate excess traffic movement and congestion. With the great increases that have occurred in recent years in the cost of everything to which planning relates, i t is not always possible to work in this ideal framework of transportation planning and compre-hensive planning. Often because of the high cost of improvements and the limited budget of most communities other solutions to transportation problems of movement and congestion are necessary. The author suggests that a system of regulation can be devised so that a better utilization of existing capacity is possible. This system of regulation would out of necessity be far short of restricting the private automobile in the C.B.D. A regulatory system would 1) be within the financial means of the city, 2) would allow a better utilization of existing capacity, and 3) would allow a relatively concentrated central business district which one planning philosophy supports as desirable. Regulatory devices may be divided into four categories: 1) controls of traffic movement and street use; 2) controls on access; 3) control c of vehicle use; and 4) staggering of work hours. The motorist i s already familiar with a broad range of rules and regulations concerning speed, direction of travel, parking and traffic signals and signs. Additional improvements in traffic flow are possible by means that go beyond the ordinary. The designation of particular routes or lanes for various modes is a partial solution. Because the traffic flow nature of various modes of S^merk G. M. Urban Transportation: The Federal Role pp. 193-201. 6 transport are quite different, the joint use of streets by a l l modes denies the highest level of efficiency for each. For example, transit vehicles pause frequently to permit passengers to board and alight, hindering the through movement of the automobiles. Setting aside certain traffic lanes exclusively for specific types of vehicles might prove very 6 useful. Exclusive bus lanes have been highly successful in many cities. In addition, special lanes might be designated as one-way streets for transit vehicles to allow them to run against the tide of traffic. Traffic flows along major arteries might be significantly augmented by closing off side streets with barricades during rush hours, creating rush hour expressways. Hazards from traffic entering from' side streets would be greatly reduced and a substantial number of accidents might be averted. One way streets are used widely to speed up traffic, reduce accidents, and increase street capacity. In general, the one-way device provides a relatively inexpensive means of traffic improvement. It appears feasible that much of the city street system could be redesigned to conform to a one-way pattern. A variation of the one-way street is the reversible lane. This system makes certain streets inbound-only in the morning and outbound-only in the evening. With this procedure, used in conjunction with the rush-hour expressway idea, substantial capacity increases are possible from present streets. By controlling the amount and time of curb parking some increases in capacity can be accomplished. Curb side parking reduces the space available for vehicle movement. By eliminating parking at the peak hours ^Metropolitan Transportation "Separate Lane Speeds Buses Across Bay Bridge," Vol. 58, No. 3, March 1962, pp. 24-26. 7 an extra lane i s made a v a i l a b l e i n the d i r e c t i o n of t r a v e l . In a d d i t i o n t o controls dealing with the flow of t r a f f i c i n urban areas, the c o n t r o l of access and modal use are important f a c t o r s i n easing the problems of urban t r a n s p o r t . In recent years with the construction of freeways and expressways, l i m i t e d access t o highways has become generally accepted. This separates the access t o land and through movement generation bidding d i r e c t access from major buildings to a r t e r i a l s t r e e t s , thereby preventing them from d i s t r i b u t i n g t r a f f i c d i r e c t l y onto the busy thoroughfares. Limited access i s a f e a s i b l e way t o help reduce the dangerous f r i c t i o n of side t r a f f i c entering major str e e t s from a large number of accesses and impeding the speed and flow of t r a f f i c on a r t e r i a l s t r e e t s . The c o n t r o l of modal use, accomplished by some form of r a t i o n i n g such as a t o l l , could be used as a devise t o reduce the volume of t r a f f i c . Assuming that i t i s necessary t o l i m i t the pri v a t e automobile, steep fees could be l e v i e d through gasoline or l i c e n c e t a x imposed on urban motorists, while at the same time public transport fares might be lowered or eliminated t o make such modes more a t t r a c t i v e . The high cost could f o r c e the occupancy rate up. Thi s doubling up on car usage could reduce the cost t o the user and a l s o reduce the number of vehicles on the road. Another method of c o n t r o l or reg u l a t i o n without a d d i t i o n a l c a p i t a l expenditures i s t o stagger working hours. Much of the cause of conges-t i o n stems from the uniformity of working hours and the resultant peak t r a f f i c periods. The purpose or goal of staggered working hours i s to d i s t r i b u t e the period of peak t r a v e l over a greater time period and thereby reduce the magnitude of the peak. 8 This l a s t method, the staggering o f working hours i s the t o p i c of t h i s t h e s i s . I t i s t h i s method the author would l i k e to in v e s t i g a t e as a method to bridge the growing gap between the demand f o r and supply of highway f a c i l i t i e s . The hypothesis to be tested i n t h i s t h e s i s i s : that by the staggering o f working hours i n the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t the peak congestion problem can be r e l i e v e d . The objective of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o discover the e f f e c t of staggered hours on a s t r e e t highway system i n quantitative terms and to determine i f i t would have p r a c t i c a l use f o r reducing congestion. This t h e s i s w i l l i n v e s t i g a t e a method o f t r a f f i c assignment f o r e f f e c t i n g a staggered hours program i n an urban area, by considering the capacity of the e x i s t i n g s t r e e t system and the demands that are being made on i t . The basic approaches to the problem o f bringing the demand f o r and supply o f highway f a c i l i t i e s to a state of eq u i l i b r i u m are: 1) t o provide a d d i t i o n a l lanes o f new or improved highways t o meet the t r a f f i c demand; 2) t o reassign or r e a l l o c a t e t r a f f i c t o e x i s t i n g s t r e e t f a c i l i t i e s i n accordance with the capacity o f these f a c i l i t i e s , or t o bring demand to the l e v e l o f supply; 3) t o design newly developed areas on the basi s of transportation demands and supply o f f a c i l i t i e s being i n a state of equilibrium. Approach three i s i d e a l , but p r a c t i c a b l e only f o r areas that have not yet developed and f o r older areas which are scheduled f o r redevelop-ment, i t s e f f e c t on the t o t a l problem w i l l be l i m i t e d . 9 Highway planning activities throughout the country are based on approach one—the provision of highway capacity to meet the traffic demands. It is an observation today that serious congestion can be found on the highways of any large metropolitan area, and the impression is growing that new freeways invariably become clogged with vehicles during peak hours within a few years of their completion. Experience of this sort has tended to breed scepticism among planners about the ability of urban highway expansion to stay abreast of the automobile flood, except by unduly large investment of public funds in roads. Available financial and land resources can not supply the capacity at a fast enough rate to meet the peak traffic demands, despite the current high ratio of expenditure.7 It therefore appears that an investigation should be made to check whether the second approach would be a more practical way of meeting the problem: that i s , whether the redistribution of demand in accordance with existing highway capacity is the solution. This approach wil l be tested to see i f i t will reduce congestion and wil l result in a greater, but more uniformly distributed, utiliza-tion of the existing highway facilities. In the search for a method of appraising congestion and deter-mining its degree or intensity, some expression of the two functions of the traffic capacity of the facilty-time and space—should enter into the basis of measurement as they are reflected in densities of traffic, volumes of traffic, travelling time,and other characteristics of traffic movement. The following definitions will be used: 7Carll R. R. and W. S. Homburger, Some Characteristics of Peak  Period Traffic. Institute of Transportation and Traffic Engineering, University of Calfironia, Berkeley, 1962, p. 2. 10 1. Speed i s the rate o f movement of v e h i c l e s , expressed i n miles per hour. I t can apply t o single v e h i c l e s , times and l o c a t i o n s (spot speeds) but more of t e n i s averaged over a time or distance. Operating Speed i s the highest o v e r a l l speed at which a d r i v e r can t r a v e l on a given route under p r e v a i l i n g t r a f f i c conditions with-out exceeding the safe speed. Free-Flow Operating Speed applies only to passenger cars during extremely low t r a f f i c d e n s i t i e s . The differ e n c e i n values between operating speed and free-flow operating 3peed i s a measure of the e f f e c t that commercial v e h i c l e s , t r a f f i c concentration and conges-t i o n have on the flow. 2. Volume i s the number of veh i c l e s passing a point during a time period of one hour or more and i s expressed i n terms of an hourly, d a i l y or annual b a s i s . Vehicles-per-hour (vph) i s the term most often used. Shorter term counts of v e h i c l e s are to measure flow rates and are generally expanded to a 60 minute time base to give an "X-minute Rate of Flow" i n vph, i . e . , the number o f veh i c l e s which would have passed i n one hour had that rate of flow been maintained, e.g., 30 vehicles passing i n one minute i s a one minute rate of flow of 1800 vph. 3. Density i s a measure of the number o f veh i c l e s on a section of road-way and i s expressed i n ve h i c l e s per mile (vpmi) thus: Density (vpmi) = Volume (vph) Space-mean speed (mph) The s i g n i f i c a n c e of density to the automobile d r i v e r i s that i t i s a measure of the spacing between v e h i c l e s which determines h i s freedom of movement and at high d e n s i t i e s d i c t a t e s the speed he must t r a v e l . 11 The C r i t i c a l Density of a roadway section i s that density at which the t r a f f i c flow through the section i s at i t s maximum. I f the density increases beyond t h i s value serious congestion w i l l r e s u l t . Capacity i s the maximum rate o f flow under stated conditions. Both speed and density are f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g rate of flow and various combinations o f speed and density produce various flows. The maximum rate of flow on a p a r t i c u l a r route occurs at the point o f c r i t i c a l density which i n t u r n depends on the minimum headways that d r i v e r s f i n d t o l e r a b l e at p a r t i c u l a r speeds. Possible capacity - the maximum number of vehicles that can pass a given point on a lane of roadway during one hour under the p r e v a i l i n g roadway and t r a f f i c conditions. P r a c t i c a l capacity - the maximum number of v e h i c l e s that can pass a given point on a lane o f roadway during one hour under the pre-v a i l i n g roadway and t r a f f i c conditions, without unreasonable delay or r e s t r i c t i o n t o the d r i v e r ' s freedom t o manoeuver. Design capacity - the p r a c t i c a l capacity or l e s s e r value determined f o r use i n designing the highway t o accommodate the design volume. Congestion i s a q u a l i t a t i v e term generally understood by the motoring public t o mean discomfort and inconvenience i n d r i v i n g . I t generally occurs when a route i s loaded t o capacity. C r i t e r i o n used to describe congestion as a t r a f f i c flow phenomenon must con-s i d e r i n d i v i d u a l d r i v e r comfort and convenience and a l s o the e f f i c i e n c y of operations of the road system. Delay i s the time consumed while t r a f f i c or a s p e c i f i e d component of t r a f f i c i s impeded i n the movement by some element over which i t has no c o n t r o l . 12 Fixed Delays are those experienced by a lone vehicle as a result of traffic signals and stop signs whereas Operational Delays are caused by interference between components of t raff ic , i . e . , con-gestion from parked vehicles, turning vehicles, etc. Thus Operational Delay is a measurable relative quantity indicating the efficiency, congestion and load on a road system. Delay requires measurement with respect to a base or "normal" value which is the average time taken by vehicles traversing the route under the same operating conditions (signal timings, lane reversal systems, etc.) during periods of low traffic volume and unimpeded flow. This factor being the measure of time "wasted" by drivers because of an insufficient faci l i ty to handle the traffic demand volumes and the additional time lost by congested flow conditions, is the most important quantity by which the motoring public gauge the value of any traffic improvements. 13 CHAPTER II CONGESTION - ITS CAUSE AND EFFECT One of the complaints commonly heard about modern urban l i f e is traffic congestion. This condition exists when too many vehicles are trying to use too small a space at the same time. More precisely, traffic congestion may be defined as a condition of overcrowding or f i l l i n g to excess of the street capacity so that the freedom of move-ment or circulation is impeded and is thereby held below a designed or desirable rate of flow although not necessarily brought to a complete stop. 1 The image of urban congestion is often projected as block after block of city streets choked with cars, buses and trucks trying to move somewhere. This may be traffic congestion at its worst but i t is not uncommon. Congestion may come in varying degrees. Traffic; may keep moving steadily but frustratingly slower than at posted and or safe speeds. Whatever the degree of congestion i t amounts to one thing: the actual traffic volume exceeds the practical street capacity, reducing the desirable level of service. The level of congestion, then, is in-dicated by the difference between supply and demand for street capacity, the demand very frequently exceeding the supply. The automobile is often singled out as the major cause of congestion. The automobile is more a symptom than a cause, however, for congestion is not unique to an automobile society. Congestion is not a new problem ^Smerk, G. M. Urban Transportation: The Federal Role, p. 234, 14 by any means. It has existed almost universally since the time cities have been in existence. Wilfred Owen states that the long-standing nature or urban traffic congestion and its world-wide scope suggest, despite a variety of forms, that underlying factors may be universal and only 2 partially related to modern methods of transport. Lewis Mumford states that the problem was acute in the early days of Rome: As soon as the increase in population created a demand for wheeled traffic in Rome, the congestion became intolerable. One of Julius Caesar's first acts on seizing power was to ban wheeled traffic from the center of Rome during the day. . .for vehicles impeded circulation everywhere. Hence Claudius extended Caesar's prohibi-tion to municipalities of Italy; and Marcus Aurelius, s t i l l later applied i t without regard to their municipal status to every town in the empire. In a century and a half, traffic congestion had gone from bad to worse. 3 Concerning a later period of time, s t i l l before the use of the automobile, Owen points out the severity of congestion and one of the causes: The congestion of people, horses and street cars before the appearance of motorized transport, the rush-hour madness of New York traffic, and the lines of automobiles inching their way through the traffic circles of Washington are a l l manifestations of a continuing imbalance between transportation demand and available transport capacity. 4 Traffic congestion then is not a twentieth century phenomenon. Although congestion is not new, i t s present proportions seem unpre-cedented. The present proportion or level of congestion is basically a result of the increased densities of population, employment and 20wen, W. The Metropolitan Transportation Problem, p. 6. ^Mumford, Lewis, The City in History. Harcourt, Brace and World, New York, 1961, p. 219. 40wen, W., 0j>. cit., p. 7. 15 economic activity within a small land area. This concentration has created a heavy traffic load of passenger and freight movement that has become increasingly difficult to accommodate. Canadian urban areas are no exception to this phenomenon. By 1961 Canada's total population has increased sevenfold since 1851. Urban population however has risen about forty-fold and the level of urbanization has increased more than five times to 70 per cent. 5 These changes in the rural-urban population distribution are seen in Figure 1. Figure 1 Degree of Urbanization - Canada PER CEMT 100 80 60 4-0 Z o 100 900 AMO evvf\ 1851 61 Note; Degree of urbanization for a l l centers is the percent share of total population in urban centers of 1000 persons and over: the degree of large city urbanization is the percentage share of total population in centers of 100,000 and over. Source: Based on data from Dominion Bureau of Statistics Census Monograph on Urban Development in Canada by L. 0. Stone. ^Economic Council of Canada, The Canadian Economy From 1960's  to the 1970's. Fourth Annual Review, September 1957, p. 177. 16 There is evidence to suggest that Canada has had the fastest rate of urban growth among the industrially advanced countries for the post-war 6 period as a whole. The lower curve of Figure 1 indicates that the dominant feature of the overall trend has been the parallel growth of concentration in urban centers and complexes of large size—of 100,000 population and over. As seen from the lower curve of this figure the proportion of the total population in big cities has increased fivefold in 60 years. Without the mobility and supply function provided by transporta-tion the concentration of people, resources and activities in the urban areas would have been impossible. The time, cost and convenience of transport services have allowed a large amount of the population to seek and enjoy the economic, social and cultural opportunities that the central city provides. The design and form of transportation facilities which allowed the population to gain advantage from the central city, has lead to the congestion problem. Owen states: At an earlier time, heavy densities of population developed because the urban radius was limited to distances that could be covered on foot, or at best by horse. As lines of inter-city communication were developed to serve the urban areas of the industrial age, they solved the problems of long-distance transportation that made i t possible for great centers of production and employment to supply and support themselves. 7 ^Economic Council of Canada, The Canadian Economy From 1960's  to the 1970's. Fourth Annual Review, September 1957, p. 177. O^wen, W. The Metropolitan Transportation Problem, p. 7. 17 The transportation system solved the problem of supply and support for the city but in so doing created the urban transportation problem. These transportation systems were principally designed to carry goods and people to the market for goods and services, the central city which was already characterized by too many people and an over concentration of economic activity. But more recently this centripetal force which concentrated people in the central city is being met by a centrifugal "city to suburb" move resulting in a sprawled form which is emerging as the dominant new form of human settlement. This movement has been made possible by the common use of private motorized transportation which has greatly increased the area of travel for the urban resident. The centrifugal force has accounted for a substantial dispersal of the place of work away from the central city in metropolitan areas. Bstween 1951 and 1961, for example, there was an absolute decline of 150,000 jobs in commercial, wholesale and retail trade, located within the central cities in a l l Canadian metropolitan regions, taken together. Again, i t has been estimated that the total number of jobs in the central district of Toronto has not increased at a l l since 1956, despite the particularly rapid growth of that leading metropolitan area. 8 This new form of city and suburb combines the central traditional ruling and organizing function of the city with the material production and living function of the suburb. This new city form is characterized by a separation of place of residence from place of work. The separation of place of work from place of residence, together with the growth and expansion of the urban area has created a reciprocal movement of traffic from suburb to central city, known as the journey to Economic Council of Canada. The Canadian Economy From the  1960»s to the 1970's. pp. 198-199. 18 work, that accounts for a larger volume of passenger traffic than any 9 other cause. As a further adjunct to urban growth which is evident in Canada is the fact that as the size of the cities has increased so has the level of incomes per person and per family, (Table 1). The effect of higher income on traffic generation is significant. As one would expect, an increase, in income results in an increase in trips made by the residents. It has been found that an increase in income led to an increase at a decreasing rate of trips generated.1^ TABLE 1 AVERAGE NON-FARM INCOME BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE - CANADA 1961 Place of Residence Average income Average income per adult per family $ $ Metropolitan areas 2,580 6,440 Urban areas: 30,000 to 99,999 2,310 5,850 10,000 to 29,999 2,130 5,480 1,000 to 9,999 na 5,070 Rural na 4,250 Source: Economic Council of Canada. The Canadian Economy From  the 1960's to the 1970*s. pp. 182-183. With the higher incomes the growth of automobile ownership can be expected to increase: A l l indications suggest that the long-run upward pressure from rising numbers of automobiles and trucks is likely to continue. Between 1945 and 1965 the rate of growth in the motor vehicle population of Canada was 7.9 per cent annually, more than twice 'Owen, W. The Metropolitan Transportation Problem, p. 3. 1 0Mertz, W. L. "A Study of Factors Related to Urban Travel" U.S. Public Roads, U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Vol. 29, Washington, D. C. 1965, pp. 170-174. 19 the growth rate of the human population. After modifying the trend for such factors as the low ownership ratios of 1945 and the explosion of demand after the wartime restrictions, i t appears that population growth and a declining ratio of persons to vehicles could lead to a 60 per cent further rise by 1980. This would suggest almost 11 million vehicles in Canada in 1980, a ratio predicted for the United States in 1970. 11 The afore-mentioned trends of rising incomes and increasing car ownership can be expected to generate a higher volume of traffic in urban areas. The increased number and greater usage of automobiles is one of the main causes of congestion. The congestion in many central cities is also a result of a large number of people switching from public transportation to the private auto. Many people in North American cities once used mass transit systems to arrive at their downtown destinations. Since the Second World War transit riders have been switching to the private- auto. This point is substantiated by the growth in automobile registrations for the United States and Canada, (Table 2), and by the decreasing trends in transit riding, (Table 3). The trend to greater use of the private automobile is both a cause and a result of the movement to the suburbs previously discussed. Areas of highly dispersed living cannot be served profitably or efficiently by public transportation. In low density land development a mass transit operation cannot operate successfully. A l l other things being equal, there are not enough people in a low density area to ensure that there will be sufficient passengers to pay the fares needed to make such a system economical. l xThe Economic Council of Canada. The Canadian Economy From the 1960's to the 1970*s. p. 199. TABLE 2 PASSENGER AUTOMOBILE REGISTRATIONS FOR U. S. AND CANADA Year Passenger Automobiles U. S. Canada 1910 458,377 8,964 1920 8,131,522 407,064 1930 22,972,745 1,047,494 1940 27,372,397 1,234,637 1950 40,185,146 1,907,169 I960 61,300,000 4,104,415 1975 100,000,000 Source: U. S. Statistical Abstract U. S. Bureau of the Dept. of Commerce and Labor, I960. Canada Year Book - Bureau of Statistics, Ottawa, 1961. TABLE 3 TRENDS IN TRANSIT RIDING BY TYPE OF TRANSIT (Total Passengers) Year Railway- Trolley Motor Grand Surface Subway & Total Coach Bus Total (millions) Elevated (mill) (mill) (mill) (mill) 1935 7,276 2,236 9,512 2,382 8,325 96 2,618 12,226 1940 5,943 534 4,239 13,098 1945 9,426 2,698 12,124 1,244 1,658 9,886 23,254 1950 3,904 2,264 6,168 9,420 17,246 1955 1,207 1,870 3,077 1,202 7,250 11,529 1959 521 1,828 2,349 1,850 2,313 749 6,459 9,557 I960 463 657 6,425 9,395 1961 434 1,855 2,289 601 5,993 8,883 Source: Transit Fact Book, 1962. 21 With severe financial losses as have been experienced in the past by transit operation it is necessary for them to curtail their operations and service to remain in a profitable position. This curtailment of operations and service in turn motivates more individuals to prefer the private mode. All of these factors: the crowding of population and economic activity into a small area of land, the shift to the suburbs, the journey to work and the rush hour phenomenon, the increase in auto ownership and the decline in public transit usage a l l combine to produce the urban transportation problem. In discussing congestion and attempting to find a solution for i t , some assumptions and generalizations about the city are necessary. We could say the easiest way to solve the congestion problem is by default: to let the city strangle itself on that which once gave i t life, a multiplicity of choice. Jane Jacobs suggests that good transportation and communcations are not only among the most difficult things to achieve: they are also basic neces-sities. . . .it is impossible to take advantage of multipli-city of choice without being able to get around easily. . . furthermore, the economic foundation of cities is trade. Even manufacturing occurs in cities mainly because of attached advantages involving trade, not because it is easier to manu-facture things in cities. Trade in ideas, services, skills and personnel, and certainly in goods, demands efficient, fluid transportation and communication. 12 The problem is how to accommodate city transportation without destroying the related intricate and concentrated land use which is a cause of congestion. If we do nothing constructive to solve the problem, the central city will decline. When this happens the activities and functions it tJacobs, Jane, The Death and Life of Great American Cities. Random House, N. I. 1961, p. 340. 22 once attracted and facilitated will spread over a wide area and there will be l i t t l e left to go to. If left to default downtown congestion would be solved and the city would resemble a wheel without a hub where once its l i f e used to rotate. The technological advances of transportation that in the first place allowed the development of the present day cities would have gone f u l l circle. It is this possibility that the author believes is impractical and uneconomic. What then is the city and what should i t be? The foregoing physical description is a rather bleak picture of today's city but is often not far from the truth. But the city is more. The city generally has many natural assets that have allowed i t to grow. A desirable climate, a productive hinterland, an energetic population, and good transport facilities are to mention a few. It provides a central place for easy personal communications, for transacting business, for entertainment, education and the arts. However, too often today these obvious benefits are offset by inconveniences, not the least of which is traffic congestion. Congestion is already taking its t o l l . The evidence of this situation is the migration to the suburbs and in some cases the loss of population from the central city area. Associated with this loss of population in the major metropolitan areas is the loss of business in the C.B.D. For example, downtown shares of business are being lost in Dallas (38$), Chicago (26$), Los Angeles (38$), 13 and New York (16$). In other words, these downtown areas obtain a share of new business that is not in proportion to total shares already held. In effect their overall per cent share of the market is declining. 1 3U. S. News and World Report. "What»s Happening to U.S. Cities,'" Vol. 48 (June 20, I960), p. 84. 23 Also a point to note is that the C.B.D., especially the larger older ones, do not attract a substantially greater number of workers now than they did twenty or thirty years ago. 1 4 With a transportation network free of congestion or with lessened congestion, the central city could conceivably, revitalize and reverse some of these present downward trends. If improvements are not found i t is conceivable decline wi l l continue and the core wil l die. But in the author's opinion the city, to be truly called a city, needs a central focal point with a clear identity. Without identity we would have face-less, uninteresting and institutional places in which to live, work and play. Why has not the city been able to successfully accommodate the private car? There are several reasons which begin to demonstrate the impossibility of doing so. Firstly most city structures are obsolete in the motor age. The basic grid pattern upon which a major number of North American cities were built was not designed to accommodate a large flow of vehicular t r i f f i c . This pattern was devised primarily for its ease of real estate plotting and access to properties. They were laid out in a time when heavy traffic volumes were not a serious problem or indeed of major concern. The streets are often too narrow, especially when they serve the triple function of access, through movement and storage. Land scarcity is another reason why cities do not accommodate the car. Scarce and consequently expensive urban land is densely developed. •"HJ. S. Hews and World Report. "What's Happening to U. S. Cities," Vol. 48 (June 20, I960), p. 85. 24 In the United States 60 per cent of the population l i v e on about one per cent of the land area and one-third li v e on one-tenth of one per cent of the land area. New York houses 24,537 persons per square mile 15 and Manhattan 82,000. Clearly then, c i t y land i s needed for the buildings i n which people must l i v e and work, not for massive urban high-ways. Add to this density of land the fact that land use i s often poorly arranged. This poor arrangement results i n a greater demand to travel and also congestion through cross movement between land uses. The popular solution of adding to the existing street capacity, through the construction of new f a c i l i t i e s , to maintain the downtown area would ultimately defeat the end i t sets out to attain. Once the urban land i s used for vehicle movement i t i s removed from the c i t y tax r o l l . This has the effect of decreasing the c i t y tax revenue, which i n turn lessens the city's a b i l i t y to pay for improvements. Besides the loss of revenue, as more room i s required within the C.B.D. for free-ways the ci t y i s forced to spread outwards, u n t i l i t becomes an even more shapeless, formless mass. Attempting to cure congestion by adding f a c i l i t i e s for the use of the automobile i s very expensive i n both space and dollar terms. Los Angeles i s a ready example of the philosophy of adding capacity as a solution to urban congestion. Already this c i t y has used one-third of i t s central area for freeways and even more i s needed. The downtown area as a result, has l i t t l e of real interest and very often i s used only as a means of getting from one freeway to another. x5()wen, W. The Metropolitan Transportation Problem, p. 12. 25 One freeway interchange in Los Angeles is consuming approximately 80 acres of land area, and each average mile of freeway is requiring about 30 acres. One-third of the entire Los Angeles urban area is already required for transportation facilities. 16 . . . .In the city of Elizabeth, the acquisition and clearing of right of way for the New Jersey Turnpike involved the removal or demolition of some 240 buildings and relocation of public uti l i t i e s along the route cost over $8 million. 17 . . . .In acquiring right of way for the Hollywood Freeway in Los Angeles, i t was necessary to demolish 90 buildings and to move 1,728 others. The cost of right of way alone for the Los Angeles Harbour Freeway was $10 million for a single mile in the downtown area. Relocation of public utilities along the 22.8 mile route cost $2 million. 18 The dollar cost of construction of freeways in urban areas is tremendously high. For example: Boston's Central Artery Expressway: It cost the community $50 million to construct this mile of elevated highway in the heart of downtown Boston, and i t required removing $16 million in property values from the tax rolls. . .this modern highway is costing $1.7 million annually in interest charges, $1.1 million annually in depreciation, over $1 million in lost taxes, . . .the total cost comes to more than $4 million annually. 19 U. S. Senator Harrison Williams of New Jersey testified in the Urban Mass Transportation - 1962 Senate hearings as follows: I would like to include. . . some figures, that are staggering, for the metropolitan area expressways. For what we call the Inner Loop in Washington, $300 million for 15 miles. For 22 Baylor, S. S. "Freeways Alone Not Enough," Traffic Quarterly. July 1959, pp. 356-357. 17New Jersey Turnpike Authority, Annual Report, 1950, p. 57. ^Foley, W. L. "Rapid Progress on Harbour Freeway," California Highways and Public Works. May-June, 1954, pp. 3, 15. ^ " R a i l Transit: What's Ahead?" Railway Age. Oct. 17, I960, p. 5. 26 miles for a turnpike in the Boston $180 million. In Manhattan there is a one-mile of projected highway that will cost $100 million. 20 These figures clearly point out that the cost in both space and dollar terms of urban highway facilities is prohibitive to a general solution to the congestion problem. Also there is serious doubt i f new freeway facilities actually solve the problem: It is a fact that today serious or incipient congestion can be found on the freeways of any large metropolitan area, and the impression is growing that new urban freeways invariably become clogged with vehicles during peak hour within a few years of their completion. Experience of this sort has tended to breed scepticism. . .about the ability of urban highway expansion to stay abreast of the automobile flood, except by unduly large investment of public funds in roads. 21 Rather than adding more capacity some people suggest that the number of cars allowed into the central city be restricted. This remedy is too extreme and not only impractical but politically impossible. In an age when activities and the home and work place are separated, the private auto is a necessity. Also one can not envisage any serious legislator presenting a plan of disallowing people to use their cars in the downtown area. As outlined in this chapter the problem of traffic congestion is one which is very difficult to solve. The magnitude of the problem, and the forces which have brought i t on a l l seem to be growing. A solution 20United States Government, The Urban Mass Transportation Act of  1962. United States Government Printing Office, 1962, p. 289. 21 Carll, R. R. and W. S. Homburger. "Some Characteristics of Peak Period Traffic." Institute of Transportation and Traffic  Engineering. University of California, Berkeley, 1962, p. 1. 27 to the problem, accepting our present popularly accepted mode of trans-portation, the private automobile, seems imponderable. The structural rigidities of our present city form can not accommodate large vehicular flow and the cost of overcoming these rigidities is beyond the capability of most urban areas. The author feels that a partial solution or alleviation of the traffic congestion is possible through the better utilization of our existing capacity. As outlined above, our present capacity is quite capable of accommodating the urban traffic demands except at periods of peak demand. The peak demand or rush hour is a major cause of urban congestion. It is possible that the city streets could handle the present volume of traffic i f i t were not concentrated in such a small period of time. It is estimated that 40 per cent of passenger traffic in a city wants to move in only 12 per cent of the tine available to i t or in the 22 three hours that make up the morning and evening rush periods. The following chapter will examine the peak problem and the journey to work. ^Stonier, C. E. "Metropolitan Traffic Crises," Traffic  Quarterly. Vol. 11, January 1957, pp. 214-231. 28 CHAPTER III THE JOURNEY TO WORK AND THE PEAK PROBLEM One of the main causes of traffic congestion is the "peak hour" or "rush hour" which is a manifestation of the journey to work. The journey to work is characterized by two elements which separate i t from other trip purposes. In contrast to the general circulation journeys to shop, to school, to recreation, and for personal business, the journey to work is rigidly time oriented and secondly, the majority of trips may be centred in a particular location. Common to virtually a l l wage-earners and proprietors in North American cities is the daily journey from home to work and back again. An easily observable characteristic of this travel is that most of i t occurs at virtually the same time, the peak hours. Because of the general institutionalization of working hours, set in the framework of the seven or eight hour day and the five day week, the time at which the journey to work may be made is fairly rigid, at least for the bulk of the labor force. Typically the morning period of mayimum volume occurs in most cases between 6:30 and 9:30 a.m. and in the evening another peak period of traffic flow in the opposite direction away from the work places occurs in the hours between 4:00 and 6:30 p.m. In a metropolitan area of any substantial size, the principal destination of the journey to work is the central city. There is found the largest single proportion of jobs. There may be other, smaller periferal job centres within the metropolitan area, or in industrial districts within the central city; however, for the most part, there wil l 29 be one major focus of work journeys, the central city which is much larger than any of the others.^" The time and place orientation of the working journey is not easily altered. Even though workers may shift about through a variety of jobs within the range of their vocation, they may s t i l l find that as long as they remain in a given metropolitan area, the general location and hours 2 of their work will not alter by more than a few blocks or minutes. The most notable characteristic of the quantity of traffic arriving in the C.B.D. is its time of arrival, and the difference between time distributions for work trips and trips for a l l purposes to the C.B.D. as a whole. From a study in Philadelphia, H. S. Lapin found: . . .that 40.4 per cent of trips for a l l purposes to the C.B.D. arrived in the two and a half hour period 7 to 9:30 a.m. while in the same period 68.4 per cent of work trips to the C.B.D. reached their destinations. Arrivals of trips for a l l purposes tended to be fairly evenly d i s t r i -buted throughout the remainder of the day while the propor-tion of C.B.D. destined work trips dropped off much more quickly after the morning peak. 3 The fact of our twentieth century city is that work place and residence are separated. And because the C.B.D. is the largest single place of employment the journey to work is an unpleasant fact of l i f e for a large number of city dwellers. D. L. Foley comments: In the contemporary large American city a mosaic of functional areas has evolved seemingly as an inevitable counterpart of the broad fact of economic specialization. Ecologists term this process segregation. So long as the city is characterized by specialization and segregation, . . .we can expect that ••-Smerk, G. M. Urban Transportation: The Federal Role. Indiana University Press, Bloomington, 1965, pp. 182-183. ^Loc. pit. 3Lapin, H. S. Structuring of the Journey to Work. University of Pennsylvania Press, 1964, pp. 64-66. 30 movements between divergent functional areas wil l be necessary i f that city is to function as an integrated community. 4 Thus the journey to work may be considered as a necessary link between functional areas. It is the movement of people from residential areas to those in which economic activity is dominant. The movements from home to work have been described as movements of conflux and dispersion. This movement, when considered from the viewpoint of the dwelling place and the work place respectively, may be regarded as movements of dispersion from the former. . . inhabitants of a neighborhood leaving each morning on journeys and a movement of conflux at the latter. 5 The common form of most North American cities is one of concentric circles or triangular shaped segments differentiated by function and land use. The C.B.D. is characterized by the centre of the circle or the vortex of the segment. The dominant residential areas are those on the fringes. The dominant trend of the tide of movement is therefore centri-petal in the morning and centrifugal in the evening. This trend is i l l u s -trated by the amount of expansion and contraction between the night time and daytime populations of many large cities. (See Figure 2.) From a statistical viewpoint, trips to work constitute the largest single grouping, by purpose of a l l trips leaving urban residences. In metropolitan areas, trips from home to work and return form generally about one-third of a l l trips made, and up to one-half of those made to the central business district may be for the purpose of work. As measured by ^Foley, D. L. "Urban Daytime Population. . .A field of Demographic-Ecological Research" Social Forces. 32, May 1954, pp. 323-30. ^Dickinson, R. E. City Region and Regionalism. London, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1946, p. 124. 31 origin - destination studies in large cities, the work trips appear to represent from 50 to about 55 per cent of trips made to destinations in the designated C.B.D.»s. Reasons for the variations in this proportion lie in the differences from city to city in scale and influence of the C.B.D. relative to other local centres of commercial activity.^ Figure 2 Increase of Daytime Over Resident Population City Percent. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Cincinnati Boston Chicago Detroit Philadelphia Los Angeles Newark, N. J. Pittsburgh San Francisco Source: Owen, W. f. The Metropolitan Transportation Problem, p. 11. What are the forces which create this heavy diurnal movement of people and vehicles to the central city? Besides the afore-mentioned causes others l i e in the economic and social fields: in the structure 7 and requirements of the modern society. The social and economic importance of the daily journey is in its role in supplying mobility to labor. The increasing length of the journey ^Lapin, H. S. Structuring of the Journey to Work, p. 34. 7Liepmann, K. K. The Journey to Work. London, Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co., 1944, p. 7. 32 to work widens the labor market, allowing the employee a wider choice of employment and a wider choice of employees to the employer. This increases the independence of the wage earner and the firm . Further,, daily travelling helps to preserve the family unit, by making i t possible for various earning members to work in different localities while maintaining home l i f e in one area. The emergence of large-scale manufacturing as the most economic form of production in various branches of industry has led to the develop-ment of huge employment centers, employing many thousands of workers. Daily travelling by the workers has thus become necessary to secure the concentration of labor in plants of size demanded by technical and economic considerations. From the point of view of the worker the principal significance of the journey to work is that i t extends the market in which he is able to offer his labor and therefore enlarges his economic indepen-dence . The prime benefit which the employer derives from the journey to work is the possibility of drawing on his labor force from an area wider than the immediate environs of his place of employment. The movement of vehicles, as a result of the diurnal cycle, over the transportation facilities is highly concentrated in time, the result being peaks in demand immediately prior to and following the work periods. Peaks in demand can be simply defined as high points in the level of demand separated by decreases, troughs and increases in demand. Peaks need not be regular in occurrence, of any particular duration. Implicit in this definition is the importance of the time factor when referring to peaks. Although peaking must be measured in terms of the density of use of a facility at a particular point in time, actual definition of a particular point in time or-the peak point will depend upon the span of time under consideration. 33 Because the assembly and dispersal of employees is governed by deadline conditions, massive demands are made upon the transportation system. At the same time capacity is limited for automobiles to the g number of lanes that are available. Theoretically then the capacity of a street should be designed as nearly as possible to the greatest demands placed upon the street. The greater demands of peak hours necessitate additional facilities which are of only limited use: On highways leading into the center of our metropolitan areas, two traffic lanes may be more than sufficient to carry the traffic during 20 hours of the day, but with the advent of the peak demand hours, six lanes may not be enough. 9 Urban highways, therefore, since their capacity must be designed to meet peak demands, are burdened with the problem of providing capacity for heavy but quite short-lived traffic loads. The capacity and therefore the cost of a metropolitan transportation system is largely increased by this uneven demand for its use on a time basis. It is generally estimated that in large urban centers forty per cent of the total passenger traffic wishes to move within three hours or twelve and a half per cent of the available time per day. To accommodate this demand often means that a six-lane rather than a four-lane highway, or eight lanes instead of six lanes, are required. For urban land, the marginal cost of each added lane rises in geometric proportion to the i n i t i a l lanes b u i l t . 1 0 Wingo, Lowden. Transportation and Urban Land. Resources for the Future, Washington, 1961, p. 36. ^Smerk, Urban Transportation: The Federal Role, p. 210. l°Stonier, G. E. "Metropolitan Transportation Crises," p. 217. 34 Wingo suggests t h i s s h o r t - l i v e d f o r t r a n s i e n t t r a f f i c load i s a function o f the journey t o work. I t i s a condition i n the movement system which r e s u l t s when the instantaneous demand on the system exceeds i t s instantaneous capacity, that i s , when the number of u n i t s required to a r r i v e at a given point such as an employment center i s greater than the a b i l i t y o f the system to admit them simultaneously. Its. primary charac-t e r i s t i c i s queuing or congestion and i t s e s s e n t i a l consequence i s a time l o s s to each u n i t which depends on 1) the v e l o c i t y with which the queue moves, and 2) the p o s i t i o n o f the u n i t i n the queue. Congestion losses a r i s e from the reduction of the "free-flow," or desired v e l o c i t y imposed on a u n i t because of the behavior o f other u n i t s i n the system. In a "saturated system" where passing opportunities are rare or non-existent the movement of a l l u n i t s may be d i c t a t e d by the slower speeds of the e a r l y entrants. This "system dominant v e l o c i t y " may very w e l l be l e s s than the capacity v e l o c i t y of the system; and accor-d i n g l y the system w i l l experience a lowering of the l e v e l of s e r v i c e . Given the capacity c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a transportation system, the peaks i n demand w i l l n e c e s s a r i l y r e s u l t i n the system's operating under conditions of saturation - where no a d d i t i o n a l v e h i c l e s could be added without t h e i r delaying those following - f o r at l e a s t some period o f . . 11 time. This condition o f saturation or congestion has the e f f e c t o f lowering the peak percentage values measurable from present t r a f f i c flows. I f roads were a v a i l a b l e i n such p l e n t i f u l supply that the r i g o r s o f the peak hour played no part i n d r i v e r s * decisions, a curve depicting the rate of t r a f f i c flow over the peak period would" probably resemble a mountain peak Hwingo, Transportation and Urban Land, pp. 36-46. 35 having a pointed summit, whose altitude would be the size of the peak demand. However, the typical traffic profile for the crowded urban arterial in the peak hours has more the appearance of a mesa than a moun-tain - a mesa with a nearly flat plateau at its maximum height, whose altitude is limited by the capacity of the road to move vehicles. As the peak is flattened, i t spreads; and the more potential demand there is during the maximum time period, the wider the spread is likely to be. The spreading of the peak reduces the percentage of total traffic occurring 12 in the maximum unit of time. But trying to satisfy peak hour demand may be very expensive and perhaps uneconomic. Many persons now travelling off peak to avoid the worst traffic congestion would in the event of new facilities shift to peak hour driving. Thus the additional public investment in transporta-tion facilities sharpens the peak and lowers the "load factor" (the ratio of average to peak use) and increases the per trip cost of the urban transportation plant. With a shift from traffic movement in off-peak hours that cost l i t t l e or nothing before, the cost of the additional capacity per additional trip - the cost of peak hour marginal movement -becomes extremely high. 1 3 *If the "load factor" is defined as the ratio of the average to the peak volume of use of the transportation system, the Chicago data exhibit a load factor of about .484 over a l l but only .294 for work trips. That i s , i f work trips were the only kind made, the streets would be used to only about 29 per cent of capacity, or 71 per cent idle, instead of the current 49 per cent utilization rate. Chicago Area Transportation Study, Vol. 1, Survey Findings. Chicago 1959, p. 35, Figure 15, reported in Lowden Wingo, Jr., Transportation and Urban Land. Washington: Resources for the Future, Inc., 1961, p. 31. l^carroll, R. R. and W. S. Homburger. Some Characteristics of Peak  Period Traffic. Institute of Transportation and Traffic Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 1962, p. 2. l^Thompson, W. R. A Preface to Urban Economics. Resources for the Future, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1965, p. 334. 36 Not only may the solution to the peak problem be very expensive, i t may be practicably impossible given the phenomenon of traffic equilibrium. 1 4 Where the majority of commuters travel by auto, the opening of a new expressway reduces peak-hour congestion on many previously existing streets, as a large number of commuters shift onto the new expressway because of the time advantage. This time advantage draws more users, thus bringing more congestion on the new route, whereas the time required on alternate routes falls as traffic on them decreases. When the travel times become identical, equilibrium is restored. Route-shifting onto the new facility will continue until the average speed on the new route is reduced to below the average speed on alternative routes. The new route may be designed to handle traffic at higher speeds than previously existing roadways; yet, at equilibrium, traffic on i t is moving more slowly than traffic on the older routes. Therefore one can say that congestion on the new route has risen to surpass its optimal capacity. This result is a natural outcome of the forces of traffic equilibrium. Such facilities would have to be wide enough to carry most of these commuters simultaneously. Some auto driving commuters attempt to avoid peak-hour congestion by leaving earlier or later than the period of greatest crowding. However, even i f a new route were wide enough to carry a l l the peak period traffic formerly moving on conventional streets, a telescoping of this "spreading out" over time would probably occur after the expressway opened. Drivers who previously left earlier or later than the peak moment to avoid maximum crowding would soon discover that they i could depart closer to the peak moment, since the new facility would reduce •"•See: Downs, Anthony. "The Law of Peak Hour Expressway Congestion" Traffic Quarterly. Vol. 16, No. 3 , (July 1962), pp. 393-409. 37 congestion at that moment. Therefore more and more commuters would tend to leave right at or around the moment of inaximum convenience (assuming most government offices and business continued to open and let out at about the same time). This would tend to push the level of crowding at that moment back to where i t was before the expressway was opened, although i t would also make the total peak period of shorter duration. Thus convergences in commuters* time schedules as well as their route schedules tend to force the level of congestion on a new facility during peak hours upwards to the maximum capacity of the facility. Theoretically, only a road or system of roads wide enough to carry every commuter simultaneously at an optimal speed would be sufficient to eliminate a l l peak-hour congestion. It is obvious that no such roads are practical unless we convert our metropolitan areas into giant cement slabs. Therefore congestion at the peak hour will rise until the com-muters* average speed is forced below the optimal speed for which the facility was designed. A new expressway serving the downtown district of a city in which the majority of commuters travel by car wil l have the following effects: 1) It will reduce traffic on existing streets, thereby decreasing the average journey time on those streets for the commuters who s t i l l use them. 2) It will carry much heavier traffic loads during rush hours, heavier than its optimal capacity; hence serious congestion will be created. Nevertheless, commuters using the expressway will have faster commuting trips than they had before i t was opened. 3) It wil l shorten the duration of the peak period traffic congestion. 38 The question i s , will the total time savings experienced in a city after a new expressway is opened - plus other benefits, such as greater safety - be sufficient to balance the cost of constructing the road. As discussed in Chapter II the cost of new physical structures may be very high. What then are the costs of the journey to work? The journey to work is composed of two kinds of costs: the direct money-costs for the service of transportation (operating cost), and the time costs absorbed in movement between two points in space. (See Figure 3 . ) This i l l u s -trates how the average costs of operations, accident and time, increases with volume of vehicles. For the worker the time consumed by the journey to work is a true cost. Time is a valuable commodity which must be "spent" i f the trip is to be made. It is an expenditure of time which would not be incurred i f the worker were employed at home. In a study done in Philadelphia (1956) a wide range of median time length of trip from home to work was found. The range was from 17 to 47 minutes, and the median figure for a l l trips of interest was about 27 m i n u t e s . T h i s travel time has the effect of lengthening the working day and consequently reduces the wage rate by the cost of the time spent in travel. The value of time is difficult to estimate. If i t could be calcu-lated time-costs could be valued in money terms and added with direct costs to total a single work trip price. Because the mechanism for valuing time is imperfect, the traveller's time does not have the inter-changeability necessary to measure the opportunity costs of other uses 'Lapin, Structuring of the Journey to Work, p. 4. 39 Figure 3 Average Daily Traffic Volume (000) Travel Cost^Volume Functions For Arterial Streets Source: Carroll, J. D. "Fitting Transportation Systems Plans to Urban Land-Use Projections" The Dynamics of Urban Transpor-tation, Automobile Association Inc., 1962, pp. 10-25. of his time. Time is not a homogeneous commodity as is currency - an hour of time does not have the same value for the individual throughout the 24 hour day, because of the difference in alternative possibilities for using i t . 1 ^ In the introduction to Lapin's book, Structuring the Journey to Work, he states: Estimates made for both the London central area and Lower Manhattan indicate that time spent in the journey to work lengthens the workday by a gross amount of almost 20 per cent. Thus, for the approximately three million employed persons who travel into Lower Manhattan each workday, over 2 million man days are consumed in travel en route. 17 Although the above quote may illustrate an extreme case and one not solely representative of motor vehicles, the same trend is evident in a Minneapolis-St. Paul study. TABLE 4 COMPARISON OF AVERAGE DISTANCES FROM C.B.D. TRAVELLED IN PEAK AND OFF-PEAK PERIODS - MINNEAPOLIS AND ST. PAUL Cumulative distance Cumulative time Minneapolis St. Paul (in. minutes) 5 10 15 Source: Minnesota Department of Highways, St. Paul -Minneapolis Traffic Survey, 1950, pp. 43-45. peak off-peak (in miles) peak off-peak 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.1 2.2 2.6 2.2 3.2 3.9 4.6 4.4 6.4 l6wingo, Transportation and Urban Land, p. 53. l^Lapin, Structuring of the Journey to Work. Introduction. 41 This study indicates considerable differences between average speeds attained and distances covered on urban facilities as measured during off-peak and peak periods of traffic flow. The St. Paul data indicate that about 45 per cent more distance was covered in the first 15 minutes of travel from the downtown area in the off-peak as compared with the peak period of traffic flow. The equiva-lent figure for Minneapolis was 18 per cent. Despite the considerable difference between the two figures, the retarding effect of traffic of the 18 great volumes of workers who travel at the same time is evident. In addition to the time - cost, direct outlays by the worker for transportation must be brought into the calculations, and the impact of this will vary with the mode of transportation. However valued, they are likewise costs chargeable against the gross returns from the worker's employment and can be treated in a fashion similar to that of the time -costs. They can be expressed as a constant with respect to time and distance, as in the case of a single-fare transit system j or as a function of distance, as in auto mileage costs. The money cost of operating automobiles in urban traffic conditions is high and congestion increases i t . The cost of using a car in a congested area is frequently overlooked, since many of the costs associated with operating a car are ignored by most motorists. Average fully allocated costs of driving a private car are approximately 10 cents per mile. This is far higher than the per-mile cost of using some other form of public transportation. In Table 5 the average costs for travelling by several modes of urban transportation are compared. The fully allocated costs of operating a car appear to be substantially higher than alternative means. 'Lapin, Structuring of the Journey to Work, p. 61. 42 TABLE 5 AVERAGE COST FOR ONE PERSON TO TRAVEL ONE MILE (in cents) Commuter r a i l coach Subway or elevated Bus 2.6 3.2 3.2 Auto Out of Pocket Cost Full cost* one rider 3.5-4 two riders 1.8-2 three riders 1.2-1.3 10-11 5-5.5 3.3-3.7 * Full cost includes depreciation, insurance, etc., but not downtown parking. Source: "Tide Turns for Transit" Business Week. October 20, 1962, p. 8, Table 3 reported in G. M. Smerk, Urban Transportation, p. 64. As illustrated in this chapter much of the problem of congestion and i t s most serious cause, the peak hour, stems from the uniformity of working hours. If peak-travel periods could be scattered, the pressure imposed on the transport system would be considerably lessened. This could be done by a staggering of working hours which could mitigate the peak in a city significantly by spreading arrival and departure times over as broad a period as possible. As previously stated the problem of peak hour congestion is one of supply and demand; the supply of available space falls short of the instan-taneous demand placed on the system. This difficulty can be overcome by the expansion of the physical transportation plant at great cost. Once overcome there is some doubt as to how long the system will operate congestion free because of the process of traffic equilibrium. The doubt arises out of the desire of drivers to minimize the time spent in travel. A new facility will reduce the time factor causing a shift to the new route and will also draw more people from other roads. It wi l l further 43 allow more drivers to depart closer to the peak moment since the new facility would reduce congestion at that moment-. This would encourage more commuters to travel at or around the moment of maximum convenience. Therefore any new facility would be congested at peak hours, soon after i t was constructed. By a system of staggering starting times in the-congested central area i t would be possible to distribute the moment of maximum convenience, therefore reducing the "altitude" of the peak and also giving a more even "load factor." This reduction of the peak by a staggering of hours, to accomplish a spreading of arrival and departure times, would extend the period of maximum convenience for a proportion of the vehicle operators. This in turn would reduce the instantaneous demands being placed on the transpor-tation facility which produce congestion. If the existing capacity of the street system were large enough to absorb these fewer number of auto-mobiles into the system, which are a result of the staggering of the time of the maximum convenience, no new facilities would be needed to accom-plish a reduction in both time and operating costs. Chapters IV and V will investigate the feasibility from a technical point of view, of maximizing the use of our existing capacity, so as to equate the supply of facilities with the demand for them. Staggered hours will be the method investigated to bring about this equilibrium of supply and demand. 44 CHAPTER IV FEASIBILITY OF STAGGERING As discussed previously the congestion problem is a result of the imbalance between supply of capacity and the demand for traffic movement during the peak hours. At other times during the day and at night the street system is capable of accommodating the traffic demand. One solution is the redistribution of demand in accordance with the existing street capacity through the staggering of working hours. The purpose or goal of staggering hours is to spread out the periods of maximum demand, thereby reducing the magnitude of the peak demand.1 If peak hour travel volumes could be spread, the pressure imposed on the transportation system could be lessened. This approach is based on the fact that maximum travel demand is not constant and i s cyclical. The idea of relieving the heavy congestion during the peak hours by the adoption of staggering working hours is not new. It was proposed 2 as early as 1920 in England. An Advisory Committee on London traffic expressed the view that appreciable benefit would be derived from even a slight modification of the times of beginning and ending the daily work of employees in certain classes of business. ABetz, M. J., J. N. Supersad, J. C. P. Kole, A Method of Analysis of Peak Hour Traffic Demand For Effecting a  Staggered Hours Program in Urban Areas. Engineering Research Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, October, 1964, p. 5. 2 , 1 Crush Hour Travel in Central London," Ministry of Transport  and C i v i l Aviation. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 1958, p. 1. 45 Later during World War II, when there existed the need to conserve national resources, the compulsory staggering of working hours was introduced, with one of its principal objectives the maximization of the use of available transportation equipment. Available reports on this wartime experience indicate that the staggering of working hours was 3 successful in meeting this objective. Staggering was first used in North America over 30 years ago. During World War II approximately 60 U. S. cities used this method to help alleviate the cr i t i c a l problem of mass transportation. In a l l cases some degree of success was achieved and in many cities peak travel demand was reduced as much as 30 per cent. After the war a l l major staggered 4 hours plans were terminated. One of the most successful staggered hours 5 plans was that implemented in Washington, D. C. in 1941. The staggered hours resulted in significant reductions in peak hour volumes. The programme resulted from an order by President Roosevelt which shifted the time of work for some 75000 employees. Hours for reporting, which were mostly at 9 o'clock were staggered at 15 minute intervals from 7:30 to 9:15 a.m., with the closing times varied accordingly. The results were that peaks in the hours of beginning and ending work were reduced to half of what existed before the staggering. (See Figure 4.) 3Betz, Supersad.et al., A Method of Analysis of Peak Hour Traffic. etc., ^Santerre, G. L., An Investigation of the Feasibility of Improving  Freeway Operation by Staggering Working Hours. Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A & M University, 1967, p. 3. ^Transit Journal. Vol. 85, No. 5, 1941, pp. 156-59. 46 Figure 4 Peaks in the hours of beginning and ending work. Before and after a staggered working hours plan - Washington, D. C, 1941. AAV. S T A B . T I K i C , T l A\.£ P « , I—H A. V 1 OqT.V^E Source: Transit Journal. Vol. 85, p. 157. This data demonstrates how the volume sharpness of the peaks i s greatly reduced, the maximum number starting or leaving work at any one time having dropped from more than 80,000 to some 40,000, or about half. Although this plan was primarily designed for the improvement of transit operations its findings demonstrate the effects of staggering hours. One important aspect of a staggered hours plan is the effect that may arise for an organization i f a change in its working times is expected. In the- study done by Mr. Santerre several different organi-zations were questioned as to"the effect of such a plan and the problem 47 areas that the administrators felt existed. The following is a l i s t of 6 Mr. Santerre*s findings: 1. a) Organization - Senior High School. b) Person consulted - Assistant Superintendent of Schools Secondary Education Department, and a high school principal. c) Problem Areas: i) In many instances parents must take students to school prior to their going to work, therefore some synchronization is necessary, i i ) School bus routes must be co-ordinated to provide required transportation, i i i ) A l l schools should have approximately the same schedules in order that intra-school meetings can be held in the afternoon following classes, iv) If schools have widely varied schedules, teachers with children could be adversely affected. d) Receptiveness to Staggered Hours - Uncommitted. 2. a) Organization - Telephone Company. b) Person consulted - Assistant Manager District Toll Office. c) Problem Areas: i) Personnel must be on duty during peak telephone traffic periods, i i ) Working hours must be overlapped to provide smooth, continuous operation. Santerre, An Investigation of the Feasibility. . .Working Hours. pp. 7-9. 48 d) Receptiveness to Staggered Hours - Receptive. a) Organization - Executive Offices of Major Oil Firm. b) Person consulted - Assistant Personnel Relations Officer. c) Problem Areas: i) A relatively few employees must be on the job by 7:30 a.m. in order to make field contact each morning, i i ) Any change would involve passage by Board of Directors in order to assure a smooth transition, i i i ) No insurmountable obstacles can be foreseen. d) Receptiveness to Staggered Hours - Highly Receptive. a) Organization - General Post Office. b) Person consulted - Personnel Management Officer. c) Problem Areas: i) No major obstacles to minor changes, i i ) It would not be beneficial to change working hours because shift changes occur during traffic off-peak times. d) Receptiveness to Staggered Hours - Receptive. a) Organization - Wholesale Distributor. b) Person consulted - Personnel Manager. c) Problem Areas: i) This is a highly competitive organization that cannot allow itself to be put at an unfair disadvantage when dealing with customers, i i ) The working hours of this organization are dictated by the requirements of its customers. d) Receptiveness to Staggered Hours - Not Receptive. 49 Although the above l i s t does not include a l l types of organizations, i t does give an overall picture of some of the problems that may arise i f a staggered hours program is instituted. From a more comprehensive study done for Central London, the chief reasons given by firms in explanation of their inability to co-operate in 7 a scheme of staggered hours are summarized below. TABLE 6 REASONS AGAINST A SCHEME FOR STAGGERED HOURS Percentage of Firms Loss of Business Efficiency 72 Staff Difficulties 23 Long Distance Passengers 6 Integration of Departments 4 Official Times not Regularly Worked 7 Late Delivery of Mail 5 From the above table, i t is seen that loss of business efficiency is the reason most frequently given. There is widespread belief in the minds of management that any departure from their established starting or finishing times would lead to a loss of efficiency. The explanation most generally offered is that efficiency would be impaired and trade lost due to a restriction of '"Crush Hour Traffic in Central London," Ministry of Transport  and Civi l Aviation. Her Majesty's stationery Office, 1958, pp. 15-27. 50 contacts with customers, branches, factories and business associates. Some offices worry that the change in starting or finishing time will decrease the time periods for coast to coast communication. Expected staff difficulties are the background to much of the reluctance to experiment with staggered hours. Some firms, who have difficulty recruiting staff, feel they cannot take the risk of adopting new starting and finishing times which may impede recruitment or lead to further resignations. The domestic obligations of married women have been frequently quoted as a reason for not adopting times before 9:00 a.m. or finishing times after 5:30 p.m. In the Central London Study, a number of firms conducted a census of staff opinion. The results have occasionally shown the staff to be almost wholly opposed to any change, suggesting that some people would rather endure uncomfortable travel conditions than alter their domestic g arrangements in order to work staggered hours. Because a firm's employees may be spread over not only a large area but a long distance some firms argue that a staggering of hours would necessitate some of their staff rising at an unreasonably early hour. Another method of staggering hours, a form of internal time stagger, is not popular because work of various departments is so closely inte-grated that standard starting and finishing times are essential. It is also maintained that under present conditions, disciplinary control of the proper fulfilment of the prescribed working day can only be maintained under standard hours. Bl,Crush Hour Traffic in Central London," Ministry of Transport  and C i v i l Aviation, p. 19. 5 1 Although there were some problems resulting from the Central London Case, the results were significant. The changes introduced were mainly moves forward of 15 minutes from the 5=00 p.m. and 5 : 3 0 p.m. finishing times to 4 : 4 5 p.m. and 5 : 1 5 p.m., accompanied by earlier starting times. The overall effect of the changes was to reduce the maximum finishing time - 5 : 3 0 p.m. - by 8 7 6 8 , and to remove from the peak hour - 5 : 3 0 p.m. Q to 6 : 0 0 p.m. - 6439 persons. The effects this had on travel movement is illustrated by the following extracts from letters received by the Committee.10 An Insurance Office: . . .the change was made at the request of the staff, which was prompted by a virtually unanimous experience that travelling was very much easier at the time. A firm of Wholesale Milliners: . . .the scheme. . .is working smoothly and there is no doubt that: real benefit is. being obtained especially from the easier travelling conditions. A firm of Office Equipment Supplies: . . .the staff whose names we have now staggered are a l l very much appreciative of the easier travelling, which the new working hours have offered. In one particular case, a journey which took over an hour has been reduced to something under 45 minutes. A firm of Clothing Manufacturers: . . .our new hours of 8 : 4 5 a.m. to 4 : 4 5 p.m. appear to be proving quite satisfactory and we think we can safely say are popular with the staff. We have not so far had any adverse reports at a l l . Finishing a quarter of an hour earlier is very helpful because our staff are thereby enabled to beat the rush at 5 : 0 0 p.m. J'Crush Hour Traffic in Central London," Ministry of Transport and C i v i l Aviation, pp. 1 4 - 1 7 . 1 0Loc. cit . 52 A Banking House: . . .practically everyone agrees that by leaving at a quarter to five instead of five, the journey to work is infinitely more comfortable. The above references, although very superficial, do suggest some of the problem areas and relief measures which can be derived from a staggering of hours. While the problems seem diverse, the benefits to the user seem evident, travel is easier in peak periods. The London Committee's experience suggested that the difficulties of implementing such a system are often more real in contemplation than in practice. In nearly every trade or business in which some firms have rejected a change of hours other firms can be found in the same business who have successfully applied the scheme.11 One major problem of i n s t i -tuting a staggered hours program is that human habits are hard to change. It should be expected that some criticism to any change will result. Probably the most effective method of handling this problem would be to precede any change with a massive public relations and public education programme. There are several possible methods by which such a plan could be implemented. One might be through a general order such as was given by President Roosevelt to stagger hours in Washington, D. C. This method may succeed in specific cases where the major employer in a given city is a single organization. A second method is by tying a staggered hours plan to a zoning bylaw which would compel businesses which locate in a specific area to have certain starting and finishing times. Although the method of implementation of such a plan is of major importance this thesis has not prescribed such a method. This thesis "Crush Hour Traffic in Central London," p. 28. 53 has only outlined some of the problems which need to be considered in devising a plan for implementation. One method of staggering hours and its application to a case study will be the subject of the following chapter. The method investigated is based on calculating a staggered hours system which will result in an optimization of demand and capacity loads; ideally this would be a volume - capacity ratio equal to or less than unity for a given travel link. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of staggered hours on the highway system in quantitative terms. It would determine the extent that traffic loads can be distributed over a longer period and how much spread of hours would be needed to effect improvements in the level of service. 54 CHAPTER V METHOD AND CASE STUDY The purpose of t h i s chapter i s to develop a method o f equating the demand f o r t r a f f i c movement t o the e x i s t i n g supply i n order t o eliminate congestion delays. Accepting the constraints of demand and supply and the goal of elim i n a t i n g congestion delay time i t i s proposed that work s t a r t i n g times be staggered i n order to extend the demand over a period of time so that i t w i l l not exceed the maximum given supply. The demand for movement or the t r a f f i c demand i s concerned with the aggregate number of t r i p s that people i n a given urban area d e s i r e to make. This demand has s e v e r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ; i t may have a c e r t a i n d i s t r i b u t i o n i n time (load demand) and require a c e r t a i n number o f ve h i c l e s to pass a given point at a s p e c i f i c time (flow demand). When t h i s point i s the common des t i n a t i o n f o r a number of t r i p movements, i t i s c a l l e d the deadline demand.^ The term supply o f movement has meaning as a general d e s c r i p t i o n of the p h y s i c a l plant a v a i l a b l e f o r movement—fundamentally t h i s i s what i s meant by p r a c t i c a l c a p a c i t y . 2 I f the demand f o r movement i s r e l a t e d to time, the load c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s o f an urban trans p o r t a t i o n system are revealed. The dominance of ^Wingo, L., Transportation and Urban Land. Resources For the Future, Washington, D. C , 1961, p. 28. 2 I b i d . . p. 29. 55 3 the work trip sets the level of the demand throughout the system. The load factor shows a concentration of demand in time. It is the ratio of the average to the peak or maximum volume; a low load factor (approaching zero) reflects a high degree of concentration of demand such as exists at the peak period, while a high load factor (approaching one) describes hourly volumes among which there is l i t t l e variation. Given the capacity or supply characteristics of a system, the peaks in demand will necessarily result in the system operating under conditions of low load factor or high volume demand. A volume increase beyond a certain value creates a condition of criti c a l flow. Characteristics of this type of flow are the appearance of congestion and the drastic reduc-tion in traffic volume and speed. The precise location of the point where 4 c r i t i c a l flow begins is not known. Once critical flow has been established, non-critical flow can only return when the traffic volume input is reduced. Critical flow congestion losses arise from the reduction of the free flow or desired velocity 5 imposed on a unit because of the behavior of other units in the system. If only one point on a long, heavily travelled facility converts to crit i c a l flow, the lower capacity at this point will create an overload that will spread throughout the system. Wingo refers to this condition as a saturated system: ^Wingo, L., Transportation and Urban Land, p. 30. %yan, D. P. and S. M. Browning, "Some Fundamental Relationships of Traffic Flow on a Freeway," Highway Research Board Bulletin 324, January 1962, p. 73. ^Wingo, L., op_. ci t . , p. 47. 56 In a saturated system where passing opportunities are rare or non-existent the movement of a l l units will approach a uniform flow where velocity may be dictated by the slower speeds of the early entrants. This 'system dominant velocity* may very well be less than the 'capacity velocity* of the system and accordingly, the system will experience a high level of loss of time. 6 In order to avoid a high level of loss of time traffic flow should be maintained in the range of non-critical flow because i t represents the 7 desirable traffic flow volume from a point of capacity and economy. The concepts, critical and non-critical, can be illustrated in graphic: form (Figure 5). ^Wingo, Transportation and Urban Land, p. 50. 7Ryan and Browning, Highway Research Board Bulletin 324, p. 74. 57 Linearity of relations of the fundamental characteristics of speed -volume have been suggested in various studies. Good linearity seems to exist in the range:of non-critical flow. Linearity is lost at the boun-dary where flow becomes non-critical. Therefore i t is suggested that the end of the linearity of flow marks the boundary between non-critical and criti c a l flow. The crit i c a l point therefore represents the supply or capacity level which can be maintained over a given period of time. Once the supply has been determined the demand must be equated to i t over a period of time. The method used to limit the volume of traffic to the non-critical zone is the staggering of working hours. This is a technique for modifying the demand upon the system by breaking the total demand down into smaller segments, by giving each segment a different deadline demand. This in effect will equate the demand with the supply over a period of time. By this method the number of vehicles arriving at the entrance to an area of restricted capacity can be made equal to the capacity. By equating demand and supply at a restricted facility waiting time delays can be eliminated. The remainder of this chapter is devoted to an application of the above method to a case study of the morning peak period traffic demand crossing the First Narrows Bridge (Lions Gate Bridge) Vancouver, B. C. See Map 1. ^For a discussion of speed - volume relationship see: (1) Greenshields, B. D. and Weida, F. M. "Statistics with Application to Highway Traffic Analysis", End Foundation For Traffic Control (1952) (2) Olcott, E. S., "The Influence of Vehicular Speed and Spacing on Tunnel Capacity", Operations Research For Management. Johns Hopkins Press, 2: 57-81, 1956. (3) Ryan and Browning, oj>. c i t . (4) Underwood, R. T., "Speed, Volume and Density Relationships", Quality and Theory of Traffic Flow, A Symposium Bureau of Highway Traffic. Yale University (1961). 59 In order to illustrate the effects of staggered hours on a traffic facility, the following assumptions are necessary: First, there are numerous references in literature to the predominance of work trips during the peak periods of the average work day. In particular, Voorhees has stated that 0-D studies indicate that work trips are the most common type in the metropolitan areas and total about 40 per cent of a l l trips during an average day. This percentage is higher— 1 9 often 60 or. 70 per cent—during peak hours. In a survey conducted by N. D. Lea and Associates in Vancouver i t was found that 86 per cent of 10 a l l auto trips in the peak period to downtown Vancouver are to work. Secondly, the cr i t i c a l section for limiting the capacity of the system under study is the First Narrows Bridge capacity and that relieving the bridge of excess demand will have a beneficial effect on the accumula-tion of traffic at its approach. Thirdly, since in most industrial and commercial enterprises various phases of operations are in some way interdependent, plus the fact that many employers use car pools for getting to and from work, any staggering of working hours should necessarily attempt to minimize any disruption of these relationships. Fourthly, that there is a tendency for businesses with similar interests and functions to concentrate in particular areas of the C.B.D. The effect of each employment zone as such on the street system and its contribution of work trips will be considered as a unit. The basic data needed for this analysis are: ^Voorhees, A. and Morris, R., "Estimating and Forecasting Travel for Baltimore by Use of a Mathematical Model," Bulletin 224. HRB Washington, D. C, (1959), p. 107. l°Lea, N. D. and Associates, Measures to Improve Bus Transit and  Traffic Flow Across the First Narrows Bridge, Dept. of Highways, May, 1967, p. 57. 60 (1) peak period tripe across the bridge, their numbers, and their destination in the C.B.D. (2) bridge capacity and actual demand. (3) employment zones, their location and number of vehicles destined to each zone in the morning peak period. The existing condition in the peak period is that traffic is delayed and brought to a halt for a considerable distance at the approaches to the bridge. This condition exists because traffic is approaching at a volume greater than the capacity of the bridge. Measurements illustrate that the daily volume of traffic using the F i r s t Narrows Bridge is increasing every year and that although the highest volumes occur in the summer months the volumes are constantly high throughout the entire year; that weekday volumes are considerably higher than weekend volumes; and that volumes are greatest on Thursdays and Fridays. (See figures 6-8.) The peak traffic flows on week days are of major importance because although they occupy only approximately one-quarter of the total time period each day, almost one half of the traffic crosses the inlet in this period. (See Figure 9.) These high volume peak periods make the route unable to handle more traffic due to having reached its saturation volume. These saturation volumes produce severe congestion and delays. The peak period is spread as delays occur between the time when vehicles wish to cross and the time they actually do. Because the growing peak period desire volumes have exceeded the capacity of the route, the length of the congested period is increasing. In 1958 the morning peak period was approximately two hours, currently i t is two and a half hours and by 1973 i t will exceed Figure 6 Annual Traffic Growth, First Narrows Bridge o I i i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i i i i I — • — i — i — i — i — 1 — I — i — I — I — I I I 1 1*40 19*S 195° \M» >460 Source: City of Vancouver Memorandum, August 1965 Figure 7 Seasonal Variation In Traffic Flow First Narrows Bridge Source: B. C. Dept. of Highways - Bridge Patrol 1964 Figure 8 Daily Volume Variation, First Narrows Bridge 48,000 5,0oo 5,ooo £,000 T O T A L O A l L V T R A F F I C 4- OO - fa ©O P/V B oo -fc oo SATURBAM 5DW0AY Source: City of Vancouver Memorandum - August 1965 boa 10 K>0 o, •H -P CO H O 33 CO > Figure 9 15 Minute Variation Southbound -1—1—•—1—1—1—•—«—1—|— b 7 8 9 Time - a.m. 15 minute volumes -1—1— 10 Source: City of Vancouver Measurements, August 18, 1966 63 11 three hours. Within the peak period, short term fluctuations in flow were investigated to examine the effect the capacity restraint of the existing route. Fifteen minute rate of flow measurements, show that the First Narrows' maximum peak hour capacity is actually the one hour maximum volume of the route* (See Figure 10.) Figure 10 I o -p 36oc 32oo ZBoo • 2ooo i 2 » o fioo Time - a.m. Morning Peak South Bound Source: N*. D^ : Lea,- February 4,. 1967 to February 10, 1967, Traffic. County. The peak hour capacity as defined represents the maximum rate of flow which can be maintained for 60 minutes. At the time of measurement (January-February 1967) this was approximately 3400 vph at 25 mph "N. D. Lea and Associates, op. cit.. p. 5. 64 12 south-bound in the morning peak period. Because 3400 vph is the capacity volume which can be maintained over a considerable period of time i t is designated as the critical level of supply. This capacity is not a fixed quantity but varies slightly with weather and lighting conditions, traffic characteristics and operational control. Some con-sistency in maintaining high capacity has been achieved by improving 13 operations, including lane signals and police control. It is important that a l l possible measures are utilized to maintain the highest feasible rate of flow across the bridge during the peak periods. This highest rate is in the region of 1800 vph per lane:and is usually maintained for about a quarter of an hour at the commencement of the morning peak period. See Figure 9 (7:30 a.m. to 8:00 a.m.).. There-after congestion occurs and the rate f a l l s . Sometimes the reduction in the rate of flow is due to an accident or a disabled vehicle in the traffic stream, but often i t is caused by an intrinsic breakdown in the flow conditions.^ Traffic congestion is the most frequent cause of low speeds and reduced rates of flow at the First Narrows, rather than poor alignment, narrow lanes, or intersection controls."'"^ A single vehicle on the bridge could maintain a speed related to the speed limit and the physical restraints of the roadway itself. As additional vehicles enter the criti c a l section, volume increases and density increases without much variation in speeds until a density is attained where individual drivers - N. D. Lea and Associatesf 13lbid.. p. 12. ^Ibid.. p. 26. 1 5Ibid., p. 17. op. cit.. p. 10. 65 16 become concerned with other vehicles and thereafter congestion results. With regard to the bridge, Lea's report suggests the important point about this process is that an external event (a breakdown, accident or pedestrian) is not needed to trigger the critical stage. A l l that is necessary is for a group of closely following vehicles to pass through a section in which each slightly decelerates for any reason such as the natural f a l l in speed of vehicles on the 5 per cent grade on the bridge. With closely following traffic the effect of slight deceleration is cumulative. After enough vehicles the speed and spacing is such that a positive deceleration by braking is required in order to prevent collision. This is the commencement of a shock wave of stoppages often described as a concertina traffic flow. The traffic flow through the roadway from this time onward is limited by the rate at which vehicles can accelerate from a standing start. In practise this flow is lower than is attained when traffic speeds are maintained. -Jhis loss of flow can be reduced by controlling traffic into the critical road section when necessary in 17 order to prevent shock waves. A secondary effect of staggering work hours may be in its effects of controlling traffic into the crit i c a l road section and thereby avoiding the "concertina effect." If i t were possible to control the amount of traffic into the critical road section so that the highest 15 minute volumes could be maintained for a longer period of time, there would result an improvement in capacity and a reduction of the congested period. (Figure 11 is a hypothetical example.) . D. Lea and Associates, p. 17. 66 Figure 11 existing congested period O O Q_ > deered sed period 645 7:30 8:30 T I M E Reduction of Congestion Due to Increased Capacity 9:30 A M Figure 11—shows superimposed on the present arrival and capacity graph the effect of a small increase in capacity. This capacity increase has produced a significant reduction in the length of the congested period. The existing relationship between the rate of traffic arrival and the rate of flow at the bridge is shown in Figure 12. Plotted on the graph is the rate of arrival of vehicles at the entrance to the bridge on an average day in the morning peak period and is based on field measurement. 18, N. D. Lea and Associates, p. 40. Figure 12 67 60-T I M E Peak Direction Flow on First Narrows Bridge The maximum capacity sustainable flow of the bridge is shown by the flattening out of the rate of flow line at about 7:20 a.m. and from this period until 8:00 a.m. more vehicles are arriving than can be accommodated on the bridge lanes. Thereafter the rate of arrival or demand drops below the bridge capacity and the back up of waiting vehicles begins to reduce. The waiting delay curve is directly related to the difference in the rate of arrival or demand and capacity and is shown in Figure 12 also. At the present capacity of the bridge (3400 vph) i t is calculated that the average vehicle delay is equal to six minutes, the approximate 68 maximum delay i s equal to 12 minutes and the t o t a l delay i s equal to 36,000 vehic le minutes. Once the c r i t i c a l l e v e l i s determined, the supply i s known, and through a c t u a l volume counts the peak period demand i s known. Given the fact of a l i m i t e d capacity of 3400 vehicles per hour, the morning peak period demand w i l l be re-assigned i n deadline demand segments to the f a c i l i t y i n accordance wi th i t s capaci ty ; thereby e l iminat ing the e x i s t i n g delay t ime. A study of the C .B .D . of Vancouver indicates a number of zones which can be generalized as having a dominant funct ion and for which i s known the peak period demand for movement i n t o these zones v i a the F i r s t Narrows Br idge . I t i s proposed that work s t a r t i n g times i n the C . B . D . can be staggered using the above-mentioned zones as c o n t r o l areas. (See Figure 13.) In the C .B .D. zones designated as: c o n t r o l areas are concentrated the administrat ive o f f i c e s of a great v a r i e t y of f i n a n c i a l and commercial establishments, and the headquarters of many o f f i c e s and trade organiza-t ions together w i t h extensive f a c i l i t i e s for shopping and amusement. A l l these a c t i v i t i e s contribute to the peak period f low of vehicular t r a f f i c . The f low destined f o r these areas was computed from a survey con-ducted by N . D. Lea and Associates , i n which they attained the destinations of the peak period flow across the br idge. The nine t r a f f i c zones which they d i f f e r e n t i a t e d i n the C . B . D . were grouped, for the purpose of t h i s t h e s i s , i n t o four c o n t r o l zones. The t o t a l f low i n t o these four areas i s 4503 vehic les during the peak period on an average day: 1560 destined to the o f f i c e zone, 981 to the f i n a n c i a l zone, 1611 to the r e t a i l recreat ion zone and 351 destined to the wholesale - warehouse zone. (See Figures 13 and 14.) G R A N V I L L E BRIDGE DAVIE CBD Control Areas Differentiated By Function HASTINGS PENDER EORGIA FUNCTIONAL AREAS office finanee retai l recreation wa rehouse wholesale ON vO vehicle flow over bridge Figure 14. Morning Peak Period Vehicle Flows Across the First Narrows Bridge Destined to GBD Control Areas 3 71 In determining these zones i t was assumed that there is a tendency for businesses with similar interests and functions to concentrate in particular areas of the C.B.D. It was also assumed that within these areas there exists some homogeniety of work starting times. Therefore i t was concluded that by staggering the zones as illustrated by Figure 13, the minimum amount of disruption in the functioning of the C.B.D. would occur. To minimize the disruption of the staggering of starting times, the order in which the zones are staggered is important. For example, i f the financial zone was started first this would give them an increased amount of time in which they could deal with the Eastern financial interests, then i f the office zone was started next, the interrelationship between the financial zone and the office zone would not be lagged for a large amount of time. If the wholesale - warehouse zone was started next i t could be ready to supply the retail - recreational zone by the time i t started. By starting the retail - recreational zone last i t would allow a l l of the traffic destined for the C.B.D. to be off the road and at their destination before the shopping trips began. It would also allow the retail stores to remain open later at night,to the advantage of the other worker-shoppers in the C.B.D. Accepting the above rationalization of zone starting time orders, the capacity of the Bridge and the flows into the four zones, Table 7 can be calculated. Column one, Table seven, is the control area starting order based on the starting order rationalization. Column two shows the total volume demand broken into smaller demand segments destined to each control area (Figure 14). By breaking down the total travel demand into smaller segments as illustrated in column two, and assigning each volume to the TABLE- 7 Control Area Starting Order Traffic Flows Destined to Each Control Area (Fig. 11) Work Starting Times 3 Time to Accommodate Demand Segment to Each Zone (minutes) Time of Arrival at Bridge Approach For 1st Car of Deadline Demand Segment 5 Time of Arrival At Work Destination For Last Car of Deadline Demand Segment (work starting times) ** 1. Financial 981 17 7:33 8:00 2. Office 1560 27 7:50 8:27 3. Wholesale-Warehouse 351 4 8:17 8:31 4. Retail- 1611 29 8:21 9:00 Recreation Total Demand 4,500 * It was assumed the travel time from the approach of the bridge to any zone is the same and for this study the travel time was assumed to be ten minutes. ** This time span analysis does not account for the volume of flow destined outside the C.B.D. Because the major destination is the U.B.C. this could be classified as another control zone and be given a starting time at either end of this range. This would account for 97 per cent of the traffic volume. 73 existing facility in accordance with the capacity of the facility the amount of time needed to satisfy each segment demand can be determined. Column three is the time in minutes that are needed to accommodate the flows to each control area, given the limiting capacity of the bridge (3400 vph). Column four is the calculated time of arrival at which the first vehicle of each demand segment must enter the bridge approach, to ensure a steady continuous flow and column five is the calculated starting times, or staggered hours programme. By staggering the work starting times by the amounts shown in column five the demand to each control zone destina-tion is equated to the supply or capacity. By this method the total amount of vehicle delay time, at the approach to the bridge will be eliminated, resulting in a user benefit savings of 36,000 vehicle minute delay time which presently exists. Therefore by staggering working hours as a regulatory device for equating demand with supply, the total peak period congestion delay time due to the limiting capacity of a facility can be eliminated - thus sub-stantiating the hypothesis. From this case study there seems to be definite evidence that a staggered hours program is feasible and the results could be highly beneficial. * It is realized that this capacity figure should not represent the total capacity of any particular part of the system for in most cases there is a substantial proportion of peak hour traffic which can not be directly affected by the staggering of working hours. This proportion would include traffic which is on the network for other purposes than work trips, i.e., shopping, school, social trips, etc. In addition, there is work-oriented traffic with origins at smaller employment places which also could not feasibly be included in the plan. In this study this problem did not arise because 97 per cent of the peak hour demand crossing the First Narrows Bridge is destined to a work destination and can therefore be directly affected by the staggering of work starting times. 74 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION T r a f f i c congestion i s and may continue t o be one o f the most c r i t i c a l problems associated with l i v i n g and working i n our c i t i e s . The major urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n movements, to work and to shop, are l a r g e l y an ex-perience t o be done with as q u i c k l y as possible; speed becomes a "prime objective and t r a f f i c congestion, which slows movement, the major problem. T r a f f i c congestion i t s e l f i s u n l i k e most other c i t y problems p r i m a r i l y because i t i s u s u a l l y not continuous. Today as i n the past there has been serious overcrowding of the s t r e e t f a c i l i t i e s during the peak period. The prospect o f r e l i e f from t h i s condition i s not i n s i g h t . Peak period t r a f f i c demand, which i s mainly a function o f the journey to work, i s the major cause of t r a f f i c congestion. At other times during the day or night the st r e e t system i s generally capable of handling the demand. Chapters W and V o f t h i s t h e s i s i l l u s t r a t e d a method o f r e l i e v i n g peak t r a f f i c congestion by staggering working hours and have demonstrated that t h i s method i s one means of improving the a b i l i t y o f the i n d i v i d u a l motorist to t r a v e l more economically and at a higher rate o f speed. This method evaluated the e f f e c t s of staggered working hours on a s p e c i f i c t ransportation route, the F i r s t Narrows Crossing, i n quantitative terms. I t determined the extent that t r a f f i c loads need be d i s t r i b u t e d over a period of time and the amount of time needed to e f f e c t economies i n the l e v e l of s e r v i c e . The case study considered only the morning peak t r a f f i c volumes destined t o a l i m i t e d number o f work zones i n the C.B.D. The work zones were f u n c t i o n a l l y d i f f e r e n t i a t e d so as t o minimize the amount o f d i s r u p -t i o n due to the staggering of working hours. The t r a f f i c volumes destined 75 to each zone were compared to the practical capacity of the facility and the time needed to accommodate each zonal volume was computed. The zones were then staggered accordingly. It is the author's conclusion that the staggering of working hours is one solution in reducing peak period trans-portation congestion. The solution to the transportation problem is basically an economic problem. Given the technicians, and a sufficient supply of land, labor and capital, the congestion problem can be alleviated. The crit i c a l factor in carrying out the transport policies necessary to meet the stated objectives is thus the process of choosing among alternative possibilities to find the method of achieving the desired end at the least economic and social cost. In recent years several methods have been employed or suggested to reduce traffic congestion. Using the explanation of traffic congestion that the traffic system is inadequate, the most effective solution is to increase the physical capacity through the construction of new high speed, high volume facilities. Although movement facilitating improvements are under way or planned, i t is unlikely that the available financial resources will permit the building of new facilities or the carrying out of improvements on a scale that would appreciably relieve overcrowding during the peak period. Looking at the problem from the viewpoint that the demand for service is excessive has yielded other methods of reducing traffic conges-tion. One of the most promising of these methods is proper land use planning and control. While land use planning has several objectives, one of the most important is the reduction of travel demand in congested areas by grouping land uses in such a manner so as to eliminate cross movement. Although this method yields benefit in new and rapidly developing 76 areas, the benefits in older and more densely developed areas are neces-sarily slow and do not affect a large number of people. Because of the limited effect of this approach i t should in the short run, assume less importance. Another method similar to land use planning and control (in that i t views the problem as one of excess demand) is the staggering of working hours. The purpose or goal of staggered working hours is to reduce the magnitude of the peak, thereby easing the congestion problem while using the limitations of the current, nearly fixed stock of transportation facilities. There are therefore two alternatives available, in different degrees, to provide the needed transportation. Por any given system one may stagger working hours to such an extent as to allow each worker to use his desired routing at a higher level of service. Secondly, an optimal solution could be obtained in increasing the capacity on any given route such that the supply or capacity would be sufficient to satisfy the highest peak demand. The results of this thesis have illustrated that the first alterna-tive is effective from a scheduling standpoint in reducing congestion. However, l i t t l e is known about the costs which would be generated by such a system. The second alternative is what is essentially happening on our urban transportation networks. Although cities are presently working the second alternative, i t must be realized that the needs of a transportation system can be satisfied through either. By making any proposal for traffic improvements to the C.B.D., the broad assumption is made that our cities are worth saving, which is another way of saying that the net benefits of trying to improve present urban centers exceed the net benefits of scrapping them and building new centers. Secondly, the renovation and improvement of urban transport systems are a 77 v i t a l part of preserving our cities. Thirdly, that the policies adopted should aim at an optimum combination of alternatives that w i l l produce a desired result at the lowest cost to society. In adopting any alternative there are numerous and varied implications, of either proposal. Some of these implications can be well expressed in both physical and economic terms while others are non-quantifiable. Undoubtedly an important aspect of any staggered hours plan is the comparison of the costs and benefits the plan produces over the alternative proposal of the addition of new capacity. While both alternatives may have common goals and equal transportation benefits the costs are not equal or of the same nature. The major costs of staggering hours would be caused by disruption of businesses1 external contacts. As the number of business hours in common are reduced the costs of doing business are increased. If a significant increase in the cost of doing business results from delay in the transmission of messages and the transactions of exchange, then commuting congestion has been relieved.only 2 by intensifying communication congestion. The question then is would a net gain ensue and i f so how would the gain be distributed. A change in an organization's working nous may cause difficulties in recruitment and losses amongst its staff, or tend to diminish a firm's internal efficiency. A l l of these inconveniences are costs to the firm. These private costs must be weighted against the potential public gains to a travelling public relieved of the costs and inconvenience of congested peak hour movement. ^Thompson, R. W. A Preface to Urban Economics, p. 334. 78 The addition of new capacity would be more expensive in terms of engineering works and more expensive in compensation for land acquisition and disruption. The costs of the new facility would be a public cost while the costs of the staggered hours system would be borne by the private sector. The transportation benefits of both alternatives would accrue to the public sector. The construction of a new facility would destroy the compactness and interrelated land use of the city, whereas a staggered system would leave them physically undisturbed. Through a staggered hours plan the need to supply additional highway or street capacity in the downtown area would be decreased, resulting in both cost and space savings in the downtown area. The city cost savings accruing to the city might well be applied to other non-transportation urban needs. With respect to street oriented transit operations the improvements in the system through either alternative can be of benefit to transit operations in two ways. The transit operators will benefit from the overall reduction of congestion in much the same way as the auto users. Either alternative wi l l increase the operating speed of the transit vehicles and decrease time losses due to general congestion. But staggered hours wil l decrease the peak demands for transit at the major generators. This will decrease the general congestion at the major bus stops and allow more orderly efficient operation at these points. Secondly the staggering of hours might enable increased use of transit vehicles. This would be accom-plished i f one vehicle used during the beginning of the stagger period might return to the major generator in order to obtain a second load of passengers within the staggered time limit. Both these effects which would enable transit operators to improve their level of service could also reverse the trend away from transit. The greater use of transit could 79 have significant benefits in reducing the number of vehicles in the C.B.D. With a transportation network free of congestion or with reduced congestion, the central city could revitalize and reverse the present downward trends. With the adoption of a major staggered hours program several other non-traffic aspects of a city's functioning may be favorably affected. Such services as water, sewage, telephone, and other communications services, and electric power could have their peak requirements substantially reduced. A l l in a l l , the rationalization of urban transportation involves a very complicated series of trade-offs between the joint costs of speed, comfort, cost and physical functioning. The immediate need of transportation improvements i s to effect a more efficient flow of traffic, given the existing network of transportation facilities and the existing land use pattern. While more basic long-run solutions are being worked out, the daily problems of moving people and goods must be performed within the limitations of the current, nearly fixed stock of transportation facilities and the current demand for move-ment originating in the temporarily fixed land use patterns. The staggering of working hours appears to be a suitable short run solution. 80 BIBLIOGRAPHY 81 BIBLIOGRAPHY a) Books: American Institute of Planners. Report of the Planning Policy Committee on Urban Transportation. Washington, D. C.. (February, 1964.) Betz, M. J., Supersad, J. N. A Method of Analysis of Peak Hour  Traffic Demand for Effecting a Staggered Hours Program in  Urban areas. Arizona, Arizona State University, Engineering Research Centre, I964. Canada. Dominion Bureau of Statistics. Canada Year Book. Ottawa, Queen's Printer, 1961. . Economic Council of Canada. Fourth Annual Review: The Canadian Economy from the 1960's to the 1970's. Ottawa, Queen's Printer, (Sept. 1967). 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Voorhees, A . M . , M o r r i s , R. "Estimating and Forecasting Trave l f o r Baltimore by Use of a Mathematical Model. Highway Research Board  B u l l e t i n . No. 224 (1959), pp. 105-114. Wingo, L . "Measurement of Congestion i n Transportation Systems" Highway Research Board B u l l e t i n . No. 221 (1959), pp. 1-28. Wohl, M. "Costs of Urban Transportation Systems of Varying Capacity of Service" Highway Research Board Record. No. 64 (1965), pp. 1-70. Wynn, F . H . "Transportation Service to Downtown Areas" T r a f f i c  Engineering XXXIII (May, 1963), pp. L4-24. c) Unpublished M a t e r i a l : Lea, N . D. and Associates . Measures to Improve Bus Transi t and T r a f f i c  Flow Across the F i r s t Narrows Bridge; done for the Department of Highways, B . C . , May I967. 

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