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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Export instability and political violence in underdeveloped countries Moul, William Brian 1971

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EXPORT I N S T A B I L I T Y AND IN  POLITICAL VIOLENCE  UNDERDEVELOPED  COUNTRIES  by WILLIAM BRIAN MOUL B.A., U n i v e r s i t y  A  THESIS THE  of British  Columbia,  1968  SUBMITTED I N P A R T I A L F U L F I L M E N T OF REQUIREMENTS  FOR THE DEGREE OF  PIASTER OF ARTS in  t h e Department of  Political  We  accept  to  the  THE  this  Required  Science  thesis  as  conforming  standard  U N I V E R S I T Y OF B R I T I S H S e p t e m b e r 1970  COLUMBIA  In  presenting this thesis  an  advanced degree at  the  Library  in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of  the U n i v e r s i t y  of  British  s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e  for  the  requirements  Columbia, I agree r e f e r e n c e and  I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may  t h e Head o f my  by  his  of  t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not  written  representatives.  be g r a n t e d by  It i s understood that  permission.  Department o f  Political Science  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h V a n c o u v e r 8, Canada  September 15,  Columbia  1970  be  that  study.  this  thesis  Department  copying or  for  or  publication  allowed without  my  ABSTRACT There have been few a t t e m p t s t o e m p i r i c a l l y  delineate  and a s s e s s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f " e x t e r n a l " o r " i n t e r n a t i o n a l " f a c t o r s i n the study of comparative p o l i t i c s development.  The p u r p o s e  and p o l i t i c a l  o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t o examine an  " i n t e r n a t i o n a l - n a t i o n a l l i n k a g e " x«rhich h a s been t h e s u b j e c t o f considerable speculation butressed w i t h anecdotal evidence. The  l i n k a g e i s between t h e s h o r t term i n s t a b i l i t y o f e x p o r t  proceeds o f underdeveloped  c o u n t r i e s and t h e amount o f p o l i t i -  c a l v i o l e n c e w i t h i n these c o u n t r i e s . are  The i n d e p e n d e n t  variables  export i n s t a b i l i t y , export losses, export i n s t a b i l i t y  impact,  and t h e i m p a c t o f e x p o r t l o s s e s . In t h e f i r s t s e c t i o n o f t h e t h e s i s , t h e e x t e r n a l n a t u r e of  export i n s t a b i l i t y i s discussed.  always induced e x t e r n a l l y .  Export i n s t a b i l i t y i s not  The e v i d e n c e l i n k i n g e x p o r t i n s t a -  b i l i t y t o d o m e s t i c economic d i s t u r b a n c e s and economic d i s t u r bances t o p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i s p r e s e n t e d and d i s c u s s e d i n t h e next s e c t i o n .  Domestic  economic d i s t u r b a n c e i s an unmeasured  intervening v a r i a b l e i n t h i s study. There a r e many methods o f c o m p u t i n g of  export proceeds.  the i n s t a b i l i t y  P e r c e n t a g e d e v i a t i o n s from a n n u a l t r e n d  v a l u e s a r e u s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s , w i t h t h e t r e n d v a l u e s computed u s i n g f i v e y e a r moving a v e r a g e s .  The d a t a s o u r c e s and v a r i o u s  measures o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e a v a i l a b l e a r e a s s e s s e d i n terms of v a l i d i t y  and r e l i a b i l i t y .  A composite index o f "the t o t a l  m a g n i t u d e o f c i v i l s t r i f e , " d e v e l o p e d by G u r r and R u t t e n b e r g , i s u s e d t o measure t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e .  The for  results of a cross-sectional  a sample o f f o r t y - s e v e n  zero  relationships  political A obscure fied three  between  underdeveloped the four  analysis  countries  independent  indicate  variables  and  violence. lack  of covariation  significant  subsamples. relatively  homogeneous  system  tionships  does v a r y  within  correlations  Accordingly,  political  system.  correlation  types.  of opposite  t h e sample  may  sign within  regions  and  and d i r e c t i o n o f t h e  to region  The v a r i a t i o n i s n o t l a r g e .  sample  i s subdivided  socio-economic  The e x t e n t  according  the t o t a l  and t y p e  of  speciinto four rela-  political  L I S T OF  TABLES PAGE  TABLE P r i c e and Volume o f Cocao E x p o r t s Ghana 1950-1962. . . . II.  III.  IV.  V.  VI.  VII.  VIII.  IX.  X.  XI.  XII.  Correlation Matrix of Export V a r i o u s Economic Measures.  XIV. XV.  XVI.  Instability  and 12  Number o f C o u p s p e r T h r e e Y e a r I n t e r v a l s f o r Twenty L a t i n A m e r i c a n C o u n t r i e s % 1907-1966 . . . .  23  The F i v e Y e a r Moving A v e r a g e s culating Export Instability?  28  Method Ceylon  A Comparison o f Export I n s t a b i l i t y Twelve C o u n t r i e s ? 1950-1960 Domestic V i o l e n c e and t h e E x t e n t Freedom Hypothetical Export Countries. .  Instability  of Cal1961-1965  . .  Measures f o r 29  of Press 36 Data  f o r Two 38  E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n Forty-Seven Underdeveloped Countries: Correlation Coefficients . . . .  40  E x p o r t L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n F o r t y Seven Underdeveloped C o u n t r i e s ; Correlation Coefficients  41  E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l a n c e i n Forty-Seven Underdeveloped Countries; Correlation Coefficients  42  Impact o f L o s s e s from E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n Forty-Seven Underdeveloped Countries: Correlation Coefficients  43  Sample C o u n t r i e s C l a s s i f i e d and  XIII.  from  Political  A Comparison Export  .According  to  Region  System Type  46  o f Two M e a s u r e s o f D e m o c r a c y  Instability  and P o l i t i c a l  49  Violence i n  African Countries; Correlation Coefficients . . . E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n Latin Countries; Correlation Coefficients . . . .  52 53  E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n Asian Countries: Correlation Coefficients . . . .  54  PAGE  TABLE  XVII.  XVIII.  XIX.  E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n Polyarchic Countries: Correlation Coefficients.  55  E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n "Non P o l y a r c h i c " Countries; Correlation Coefficients . . . . . .  56  E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l a n c e i n Personalist Countries: Correlation Coefficients  XX.  Export Elitist  XXI.  XXII.  XXIII.  XXIV.  XXV.  Export archic  XXVII.  XXVIII.  XXIX.  Instability Countries;  and P o l i t i c a l Correlation  Violence i n Coefficients  . .  59  L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y Countries; Correlation Coefficients. . .  60  E x p o r t L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n Personalist Countries; Correlation Coefficients E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact in Polyarchic Countries ? Coefficients  and P o l i t i c a l Correlation  E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact in Personalist Countries; Coefficients  and P o l i t i c a l Correlation  Export  and P o l i t i c a l  in XXVI.  58  Instability  Elitist  Impact  Countries;  61 Violence 63 Violence 64  Correlation  Violence  Coefficients  .  66  Impact o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n African Countriesi Correlation Coefficients . .  68  Impact o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n Polyarchic Countries: Correlation Coefficients  69  Impact o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y V i o l e n c e i n "Non P o l y a r c h i c " Correlation Coefficients  70  L o s s e s and Countries;  Impact o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s Violence i n Personalist Countries; Coefficients  Political  and P o l i t i c a l Correlation 71  LIST OF FIGURES  PAGE  FIGURE 1 .  The Hypothesized Relationship Between Export" I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l Violence  A  problem w e l l  stated  is half  solved.  John  Dewey  Science i s nothing but developed perception, i n t e r p r e t e d i n t e n t , common s e n s e , r o u n d e d o u t and m i n u t e l y a r t i c u l a t e d . George Common s e n s e ; that which the e a r t h i s f l a t .  tells  us  Santayana that  Anon. T r u t h emerges more from c o n f u s i o n ,  r e a d i l y from  error  Francis  than  Bacon  We m u s t e x p a n d o u r s t u d e n t s vow o f p o v e r t y to i n c l u d e not o n l y the w i l l i n g n e s s t o accept poverty of f i n a n c e s , but a l s o a poverty of experimental r e s u l t s . Donald  T. and J u l i a n C.  Campbell Stanley  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  F c . a d v i c e and encouragement I would l i k e t o thank Dori B l a k e , D a v i d E l k i n s , K a l H o l s t i , O l e H o l s t i , F r a n k Langdon, Don W e l l s and Mark Zacher o f t h e Department o f Political  Science.  D a v i d E l k i n s , who s u p e r v i s e d t h e t h e s i s ,  provided extensive c r i t i c a l  comment.  1 b e n e f i t e d from d i s -  c u s s i o n s w i t h Ken M c V i c a r o f Queens U n i v e r s i t y . I would a l s o l i k e t o acknowledge t h e comments made by John Boyd, G e o f f r e y H a i n s w o r t h , and P h i l i p Neher o f t h e Department o f Economics on t h e p r o s p e c t u s .  INTRODUCTION  It  i s a common b u t s i g n i f i c a n t  or  "international" factors  to  comparative  in  particular.  structural noted  politics  i n general  approaches  development t h e early-  f u n c t i o n a l approach proposed  by G a b r i e l  Almond,  the t a c i t  impetus  assumption.  K  countries  political  to bridge  the conceptual  of international relations.  typology  as  relatively  systems.""''  students  on t h e " p e n e t r a t e d  . . that the  c a n be t r e a t e d  and i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s  borate  i n conceptual  and p o l i t i c a l  parative  written  "external"  discussing  autonomous o r c l o s e d  Fred  that  Riggs,  of developing  The  are ignored  F o r example  and c r i t i c i z e d  politics  criticism  state"  gap between  h a s come p r i m a r i l y  comfrom  James Rosenau h a s  and has d e v e l o p e d  an  of "national-international linkage"  ela-  phen-  2 omena.  Karl  Deutsch has a l s o discussed  external  influences  3 on  the domestic p o l i t i c s  out  wanting  discipline,  t o sound states  to put the primary  of states.  like  that  Stanley  Hoffman,  "with-  a n i m p e r i a l i s t " f o r h i s own  " i f i n the study  emphasis  on w o r l d  of politics,  affairs,  we  we m i g h t  were  produce  4 a Copernican is a  not that  revolution  . . . ."  domestic p o l i t i c s  The t h r u s t  c a n be o r s h o u l d  function of international relations but that  tical  systems Despite  vision, research  there  should  n o t be s t u d i e d  the c r i t i c i s m has been very  delineating  and a s s e s s i n g  be t r e a t e d domestic  as  poli-  i n isolation.  and attempts little  o f h i s argument  a t conceptual  systematic  re-  empirical  the importance  of  "external"  - 2 factors. on  Speculation  5  coupled  the o t h e r hand, a b u n d a n t  to i l l u s t r a t e apparent  t h i s now.  with One  t  anecdotal  evidence  example w i l l be  sufficient  Samuel H u n t i n g t o n argues t h a t  "waves" o f d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n the  World War  I I p e r i o d a r e the  demonstration  r e s u l t of a cross  is,  the post  national  effect.  The power o f example, the i n f l u e n c e e x e r c i s e d by the "pace s e t t e r ^ ' i s a c r i t i c a l l y i m p o r t a n t r e s u l t o f the improvement i n w o r l d wide communications. A s u c c e s s f u l coup o r i n s u r r e c t i o n by one p a r t y o r group i n one c o u n t r y i n s p i r e s s i m i l a r p a r t i e s o r groups i n o t h e r c o u n t r i e s t o s i m i l a r a c t i o n . R e v o l u t i o n (and o t h e r forms o f d o m e s t i c v i o l e n c e r e f l e c t i n g c h a n g i n g p o l i t i c a l t i d e s ) a r e seldom e x p o r t e d , b u t they a r e o f t e n i m i t a t e d . 6 The  purpose of t h i s paper i s t o examine one  n a t i o n a l - n a t i o n a l l i n k a g e which has siderable speculation butressed The  with  inter-  been t h e s u b j e c t o f anecdotal  con-  evidence.  l i n k a g e i s between the e x t e r n a l economic e n v i r o n m e n t s  T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s and More s p e c i f i c a l l y  f  p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y within  the h y p o t h e s i s  i s that there  them.  is a positive  c o r r e l a t i o n between the d e g r e e o f s h o r t term e x p o r t  in-  stability  under-  and  political instability  developed c o u n t r i e s .  Export  i n economically  instability  i s defined  by  economists as the a n n u a l d e v i a t i o n s from the t r e n d o f export  proceeds.  type of p o l i t i c a l events,  common denominator i s the occurring within a  total  I have d e f i n e d p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y  terms o f the number and  a c t u a l or threatened  country.  of  use  in  whose of violence,  - 3 Almond structural the  and  Powell,  i n the  a hypothetical  concept, which this  recent  f u n c t i o n a l framework, i n c l u d e  "international extractive  provide  most  to  the  of  a description  c a p a b i l i t y " of  example,  i s s i m i l a r to  version  hypothesis  of  states.  illustrate  the  to  be  the  They  use  of  this  probed  in  paper. I n a n a t i o n w h e r e 90 p e r c e n t o f f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e depends upon a s i n g l e a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t o r m i n e r a l r e s o u r c e , i t may b e i m p o s s i b l e t o m a i n t a i n a s t a b l e e x t r a c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y w h i c h may i n turn weaken o t h e r c a p a b i l i t i e s . 7 Export  as  i t i s assumed  World the  instability  countries  exporting  external control  that  income.  For  of Colombia  the  be  country.  demand  Export  the  exporting  locus  f o r the the  country  "external"  exports  domestic  instability  of  over  the  Third of  therefore  and  a basic  describes  of  insofar  conditions  is  disturbance  has  example, F l u h a r t y as  considered  i s autonomous o f  because of the  can  the  lack  source  of  export  of  position  follows:  I t i s no e x a g g e r a t i o n t o s a y t h a t c o f f e e p a y s t h e b i l l f o r C o l o m b i a n p r o s p e r i t y , and t h a t p r o s p e r i t y i s always s u b j e c t to the h a b i t s o f North Americans regarding c o f f e e . Should a l l Americans c u t t h e i r d a i l y r a t i o n o f c o f f e e by one c u p , m i s e r y w o u l d d e s c e n d u p o n m i l l i o n s o f Colombians.9 This  assumption  national for'the United  agreements losses  Nations  declared  i s often  due  to to  the  basis  reduce  the  export  Conference  i n 196 9  that  on  f o r recommending e f f e c t s of  instability. Trade  and  or  The  to  intercompensate  Board  Development  of  the  (UNCTAD)  - 4 i t has l o n g been a s o u r c e o f s e r i o u s c o n c e r n t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h a t development programmes, however w e l l c o n c e i v e d and however w e l l e x e c u t e d , are o f t e n a t the mercy o f e x t e r n a l f o r c e s beyond t h e i r c o n t r o l i n the form o f u n f o r s e e n f l u c t u a t i o n s i n commodity e x p o r t markets.1° T h i s reasoning a l s o c o n s t i t u t e s a m i n o r theme i n some o f w r i t i n g s on n e o - c o l o n i a l i s m .  Nkrumah w r i t e s  that  inter-  n a t i o n a l c a p i t a l ' s c o n t r o l o f t h e w o r l d market as w e l l the p r i c e s o f commodities bought and the d e t r i m e n t o f the T h i r d World.  T  the  s o l d there  as  works  to  Torsley's p o s i t i o n i s  12 similar  and,  from a v e r y  different political  Coppock would seem t o c o n c u r . d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , he opportunities fall ist  perspective,  Export f l u c t u a t i o n s i n l e s s  a r g u e s , c r e a t e p a r t i c u l a r l y good  f o r " S o v i e t Communist i n t e r v e n t i o n " because  i n p r o c e e d s "emanates o r appears t o emanate from 13 i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s . *' The  l o c u s o f the d i s t u r b a n c e  and  the degree o f  a r e n o t , however, u s u a l l y s i m p l e t o d e t e r m i n e .  the  capital-  control  Internal  or  d o m e s t i c f a c t o r s such as d r o u g h t s , f l o o d s , o r d i s e a s e r e s u l t i n g i n c r o p f a i l u r e would a l s o reduce e x p o r t p r o c e e d s . cocao p r o c e e d s o f Ghana s h a r p l y d e c l i n e d i n the because o f the  "swollen  late  which n e c e s s i t a t e d 14 t r u c t i o n o f thousands o f cocao t r e e s . Ghana p r o v i d e s i n the s u p p l y  may  shoot  !  the  1940's des-  an example o f a c a s e i n which v a r i a t i o n s  r e s u l t in a reduction  L i k e many o t h e r p r i m a r y p r o d u c t s , o f demand and  The  Ghana has  the  o f p r i c e and  cocao has  a low  largest proportion  proceeds.  elasticity  o f the  world  - 5 market f o r cocao.  Generally,  ,:  the l a r g e r a c o u n t r y *s t r a d e  share t h e g r e a t e r the chance t h a t a p r o p o r t i o n a t e i n c r e a s e i n 15 e x p o r t s w i l l u p s e t the p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s t r u c t u r e . "  The  s u p p l y and demand r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f cocao a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t r i c a t e b u t the d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e I i l l u s t r a t e point.  I f the volume o f cocao i n c r e a s e s , t h e p r i c e  proceeds  tend to d e c l i n e .  Cocao p r o c e e d s  o f another  w i t h a s m a l l e r share o f t h e market would f l u c t u a t e Ghanaian p r o c e e d s . in  this  another  and country  with  I n t h i s c a s e , because t h e d i s t u r b a n c e i s  c o u n t r y and t h e r e i s r e l a t i v e l y  l i t t l e means o f  c o n t r o l o v e r i t , t h e e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y would be " e x t e r n a l . " It t r i e s and  i s i m p o s s i b l e t o s o r t o u t when and commodities e x p o r t f l u c t u a t i o n s a r e  opposed t o " i n t e r n a l . "  f o r which coun" e x t e r n a l " as  I t seems r e a s o n a b l e , however, t o  suppose t h a t e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i s "more e x t e r n a l t h a n 17 internal."  The q u e s t i o n o f t h e b o u n d a r i e s  between n a t i o n a l  and i n t e r n a t i o n a l phenomena has o f t e n been d e b a t e d .  The  c o n c e p t u a l problem has n o t been s o l v e d and t h e debate s p e c i f i c t y p e s o f v a r i a b l e s has o f t e n resembled  over  a peculiar  18 j u r i s d i c t i o n a l dispute. little is  T h i s t y p e o f debate c o n t r i b u t e s  t o our u n d e r s t a n d i n g .  The  relevance of t h i s  debate  q u e s t i o n a b l e i f v a r i a b l e s d e s i g n a t e d as " e x t e r n a l " do  covary with t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g  "internal"  The  establishment of c o v a r i a t i o n i s a necessary  The  importance  not  variables. first  step.  o f v a r i a b l e s d e s i g n a t e d as " e x t e r n a l " i s an 19 e m p i r i c a l q u e s t i o n and s h o u l d be t r e a t e d as s u c h . In short,  ^ABLE Price  Year Price  1  2 Volume Proceeds  1  3  and Volume  I  o f Cocao E x p o r t s  f r o m Ghana  1950  -  1962  1950  1951  1952  1953  1954  1955  1956  1957  1958  1959  1960  1961  1962  205  262  253  237  395  318  :us  195  316  275  219  171  159  267  230  212  237  214  206  234  260  197  250  303  450  421  54.6  60.3  52.5  56.1  84.6  65.6  51.1  50.9  62.3  68.8  66.4  69.3  67.0  A v e r a g e F.O.B. v a l u e  i n pounds  (Ghana) p e r t o n  2 Thousands o f tons  exported  3 Millions Source;  o f pounds  (Ghana)  T o n y K i l l i c k , " E x t e r n a l T r a d e , " The Economy o f Ghana, e d s . a n d r e s e a r c h d i r e c t o r s , W a l l y Birmingham, I . N e u s t a d t and E.N. Omabol, London, George A l l e n a n d U n w i n L t d . , 1 9 6 6 , p . 34 8, T a b l e 1 4 : 1 0 . (A S t u d y o f C o n t e m p o r a r y G h a n a , V o l u m e 1)  -  7  -  the purpose o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t o add some s y s t e m a t i c t o t h e mass o f a n e c d o t e and s p e c u l a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t i c a l and s o c i a l e f f e c t s o f one " e x t e r n a l "  evidence  the p o l i -  variable—export  instability. The stability  reasoning  behind the hypothesis t h a t export i n -  causes p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y  o m i c a l l y underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s  o r v i o l e n c e i n econ-  i s o u t l i n e d i n the schematic  diagram below.  F i g u r e 1. The  Hypothesized Relationship  I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l  Between E x p o r t  Violence  DOMESTIC POLITICAL  EXPORT ECONOMIC  > VIOLENCE  INSTABILITY DISTURBANCE  I n t h e f o l l o w i n g two s e c t i o n s o f t h i s t h e s i s , t h e e v i d e n c e r e l e v a n t t o each s t e p i n t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i l l be p r e s e n t e d and e v a l u a t e d . cally  defined  described.  Next, t h e v a r i a b l e s w i l l be e m p i r i -  and t h e "data making" p r o c e d u r e s w i l l be  The h y p o t h e s e s , r e f i n e d i n l i g h t  o f the d i s c u s s i o n  of t h e e v i d e n c e i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , w i l l be examined  using  c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s w i t h a sample o f f o r t y - s e v e n developed c o u n t r i e s  and t h e r e s u l t s i n t e r p r e t e d .  less  - 8 E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and Economic D i s t u r b a n c e :  The E v i d e n c e  I t has o f t e n been n o t e d t h a t t h e f i n a n c i a l l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s from e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y  "losses" of s i n c e 1950  were much g r e a t e r t h a n t h e i n f l o w i n t o t h e s e c o u n t r i e s o f a l l 20 f o r e i g n economic a i d and p r i v a t e i n v e s t m e n t .  The v a l i d i t y 21  and a c c u r a c y o f t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n h a s been q u e s t i o n e d ,  but i t  does p r o v i d e one i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e magnitude o f t h e problem o f export  instability. There appears  t o be a consensus  i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e on  economic development t h a t t h e i n t e r n a l economic  consequences  of export i n s t a b i l i t y a r e extremely d e t r i m e n t a l .  Higgins  states  that: Underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s o u t s i d e t h e a r i d zone a r e u n s t a b l e m a i n l y because o f t h e i r o r i e n t a t i o n towards e x p o r t s , o f t e n combined w i t h c o n c e n t r a t i o n on a v e r y s m a l l range o f raw m a t e r i a l s and f o o d s t u f f s . I n r e c e n t decades, t h e markets f o r t h e s e e x p o r t s have been e x t r e m e l y u n s t a b l e . T h i s importance and i n s t a b i l i t y o f e x p o r t s i s t h e main f a c t o r which through t h e a c t i o n o f t h e " m u l t i p l i e r " and " a c c e l e r a t o r " causes f l u c t u a t i o n s i n income and employment. Ingram c o n c u r s , s t a t i n g t h a t l a r g e changes i n e x p o r t p r o c e e d s 22  23 are "a major d i s r u p t i v e i n f l u e n c e . "  Bhagwati n o t e s  that  t h e l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a r e more dependent upon t a x e s d e r i v e d from t r a d e .  E x p o r t f l u c t u a t i o n t h e r e f o r e "tends t o  24 translate i t s e l f  immediately  i n t o u n s t a b l e revenue.  . . . "  While Kenen p o i n t s o u t t h a t s h o r t term e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y was more pronounced  p r i o r t o World War I I , he a l s o argues  the economic and s o c i a l , t o l e r a n c e s axe much lower  now.  that 25  _ 9 _  More e m p h a t i c a l l y , C a i r n c r o s s a s s e r t s  that  t h e damaging  effects  26 of export i n s t a b i l i t y  "are beyond q u e s t i o n , "  less  T h i s argument assumes t h a t more dependent  upon  that t h e i r exports of  trade  are  developed  than the i n d u s t r i a l  countries are  countries  highly concentrated i n  a small  and  number  p r i m a r y p r o d u c t s whose p r i c e s are ' n o t o r i o u s l y v o l a t i l e . "  I t i s then i n f e r r e d  that extreme  export i n s t a b i l i t y  isa  phen-  omenon p e c u l i a r t o e c o n o m i c a l l y u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . T h i s c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n has been examined i n Coppock and n o t found t o be a c c u r a t e .  by  U s i n g a sample o f  e i g h t y n a t i o n s , Coppock r e p o r t e d a c o r r e l a t i o n  coefficient  (Pearson p r o d u c t moment) o f -0.23 between e x p o r t and  part  instability  t h e d e g r e e o f economic development as measured by g r o s s  n a t i o n a l product per c a p i t a . ^ I r e - a n a l y z e d t h e d a t a r e p o r t e d by Coppock and o t h e r s i n o r d e r t o examine t h e aid  characterization  more c o m p l e t e l y ; t o  i n a s s e s s i n g the r e l i a b i l i t y o f v a r i o u s measures o f e x p o r t  instability  and e s t i m a t e s o f  gross  n a t i o n a l product per c a p i t a ;  and t o p r o v i d e a more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p i c t u r e o f t h e 1946-1958 time p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . export i n s t a b i l i t y  The c o r r e l a t i o n between  and economic development was a l s o recom-  p u t e d because i t was not c l e a r whether Coppock t r a n s f o r m e d h i s variables prior to correlational analysis.  The u s e o f t h e  p r o d u c t moment s t a t i s t i c assumes normal d i s t r i b u t i o n s . d i s t r i b u t i o n o f GNP p e r c a p i t a i s n o t normal b u t h i g h l y skevred.  The  28 T h e r e f o r e , Coppock * s c o e f f i c i e n t c o u l d be i n a c c u r a t e .  ~ 10 -  The degree o f economic development i s measured b y t h e per c a p i t a gross n a t i o n a l product.  T h i s i n d i c a t o r has a l l t h e  l i m i t a t i o n s common t o most measures which a r e d e r i v e d from n a t i o n a l accounts s t a t i s t i c s t i o n a l comparison.  and a r e m a g n i f i e d by c r o s s n a -  (These l i m i t a t i o n s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n  some d e t a i l below.)  I t h a s , however, c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n v e r g e n t  29 validity.  A l l o f t h e most f r e q u e n t l y used a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e  h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h GNP p e r c a p i t a . ^ 3  The r e l i a b i l i t y o f  Coppock's e s t i m a t e s c a n be d e t e r m i n e d by t h e s i z e o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t between t h e two e s t i m a t e s f o r 1957. Trade o r i e n t a t i o n was measured by t h e r a t i o o f t o t a l 31 t r a d e , i m p o r t s p l u s e x p o r t s , t o GNP e x p r e s s e d as a p e r c e n t a g e . Coppock measured commodity c o n c e n t r a t i o n u s i n g t h e Hirschman 32 index.  The Hirschman i n d e x measures c o n c e n t r a t i o n p e r s e ,  n o t t h e t y p e o f commodities.  The e x p o r t p r o c e e d s  o f each  c o u n t r y a r e u s u a l l y c o m p i l e d a c c o r d i n g t o a s t a n d a r d commodity classification.  The i n d e x v a l u e s a r e computed by summing t h e  squared p e r c e n t a g e s o f t o t a l p r o c e e d s 33 t h e square r o o t .  i n each c l a s s and t a k i n g  T h i s measure does n o t d i f f e r e n t i a t e between  concentration i n i n d u s t r i a l products or primary products.  A  c o u n t r y w i t h 100 p e r c e n t o f i t s p r o c e e d s d e r i v e d from manuf a c t u r e d goods would r e c e i v e t h e same v a l u e as a c o u n t r y w i t h its  t o t a l p r o c e e d s d e r i v e d from t h e s a l e o f one a g r i c u l t u r a l  product.  To d i f f e r e n t i a t e t h e two c a s e s a measure o f t h e  dependency on e x p o r t a t i o n o f p r i m a r y p r o d u c t s was i n c l u d e d . The measure i s t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t o t a l e x p o r t p r o c e e d s  accounted  11  f o r by  primary products Export  of  export  time.  There  stability. on  the  data  are  trend  method o f  the  of  annual  fluctuations  these proceeds  method  The  way  the  measure, developed  by  in-  almost e x c l u s i v e l y presented  computation procedures Briefly,  trend  "log variance" formally  over  export  computation but  elsewhere.  i n the  Coppock's  deviations"  the  measures.  fully  measures d i f f e r inated.  refers to  a n a l y s i s , Coppock r e l i e d  other  more  3^  numerous methods o f m e a s u r i n g  In h i s  two  described  third  from  "log variance"  on  i n 19 55.  instability  proceeds  -  the  however, the  i n the  the  United  three  s e r i e s was  method and  eliminate  are  the  trend.  elim-  "percentage  35  Nations,  The  eliminates  36 the  trend  "face  only  i n a r a t h e r h a p h a z a r d manner.  validity"  because of  steady as  this  g r o w t h o f p r o c e e d s may . . 37 export instability. It  can  matrix  (Table  tion.  While  be  and,  be  as  there  that  the  less  Coppock p o i n t s  out,  i n t e r p r e t e d by  readily appreciated  II)  I t has  from  this  the c o r r e l a t i o n  c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n needs  i s some e v i d e n c e  that  procedure  as  qualifica-  industrialization  33 increases the  inference  upon t r a d e ate  over  time, that  i s not  the  relative  l e s s developed strongly  The  exports  a r e more c o n c e n t r a t e d marily  of  raw  of  countries  supported.  r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a d e  elopment.  importance  economically  However, t h e  trade  are  more  i s only  o r i e n t a t i o n and  i n a fev/ p r o d u c t s  materials.  There  of  dependent a  moder-  economic  underdeveloped and  declines,  are  inference  dev-  countries  composed that  the  pri-  TABLE I I C o r r e l a t i o n M a t r i x o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and V a r i o u s Economic Me  1. GNP p e r c a p i t a 1955  1.0000  2. GNP p e r c a p i t a 1957 (Coppock)  .9294  3. GNP p e r c a p i t a 1957  .9711  1.0000 .9233 1.0000  4. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y 1946-1958 ("log v a r i a n c e " )  -.2741  -.2927 - . 2 9 8 6  1.0000  5. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y 1946-1958 ("percentage deviations")  -.3119 ~  -.3461 -.3365  .8965  Instability ,i ?5~i x 8^. , -.1950 ( U n i t e d NT a t i o n s )  1.0000  6. E x p o r t 9  9  7. Trade O r i e n t a t i o n 1957  .2467  -.1880 -.2195  .3032  .9064 •; ...  .2185 -.2401  .8392 1.0000 ===== -.2260  -.1535  1.0000  TABLE  8. H i r s c h m a n I n d e x o f Commodity Concentration  II  (Continued)  _  "-3132  -.4352  .0296  .0324  .0230  .2098  1.0000  -.5098  -.5213  -.5717  .0916  .1969  .0091  .0310  .5399  9. D e p e n d e n c e o n R  a  i  9  5 5  t  e  r  i  a  l  S  =  Sources:  pa  < .01  1.0000  < .05  J o s e p h D. C o p p o c k , I n t e r n a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c I n s t a b i l i t y ; The E x p e r i e n c e A f t e r W o r l d War I I , New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l Book Company, 1 9 6 2 , A p p e n d i x , T a b l e A - 2 . Bruce Russett Haven, Y a l e  e t a l . , World  University  Norton Ginsburg, Press,  Atlas  Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l  Press,  and S o c i a l  Indicators,  New  1964, pp. 155-157.  o f Economic Development, Chicago,  1959, pp. 16-19, 106-107.  University  o f Chicago  -  underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s  -  14  are  therefore  most l i k e l y t o  extreme f l u c t u a t i o n s i n e x p o r t s i s i n a c c u r a t e . t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r two bility  and  GNP  per  The  suffer  correla-  o f t h e measures o f e x p o r t i n s t a -  c a p i t a are  s i g n i f i c a n t §t?tistically  and  39 substantively from the not  but  they are not  p r e v i o u s argument.  as h i g h as one  C l e a r l y , export i n s t a b i l i t y i s  r e s t r i c t e d to economically underdeveloped The  correlations using  e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y and o f the  o t h e r two  GNP  per  measures.  countries.  t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s measure o f c a p i t a are  lower than those  However, a l l t h r e e measures o f  export i n s t a b i l i t y are h i g h l y significant validity.  would e x p e c t  This  intercorrelated, indicating  f a c t w i l l be  used below t o  assess  the v a l i d i t y o f the measure o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y I have employed. Coppock and generalization  Macbean have a l s o d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t  that export f l u c t u a t i o n s i n e v i t a b l y r e s u l t i n  i n t e r n a l economic d i s t u r b a n c e s must be Macbean terms t h i s g e n e r a l i z a t i o n u n i v e r s a l a c c e p t a n c e " and  "an  similarly qualified. orthodoxy" with  concludes that  "instead  p e c u l i a r l y vulnerable  t o e x p o r t f l u c t u a t i o n s such  may  resistance."  have a Two  t o be As  has  'natural'  t o the  been p o i n t e d  exhibit greater nor  being  countries  above would appear  immunity o f l e s s d e v e l o p e d  out,  of  "almost  4 0  o f the c o r r e l a t i o n s r e p o r t e d  relevant  countries  the  l e s s developed countries  countries. do  not  e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y t h a n t h e more advanced  are  they more t r a d e - o r i e n t a t e d  than these  - 15 -  countries.  The e f f e c t s o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y nay depend  the  i n t e r a c t i o n between t h e degree o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y  the  s i z e of the trade o r i e n t a t i o n .  which has o n l y  and a v e r y  be more immune t h a n C o u n t r y B  a moderate amount o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y  an extreme dependence upon  but  trade.  The macro economic e f f e c t s o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y c l e a r l y been o v e r s t a t e d .  B o t h Coppock  have  and Macbean i n c r o s s -  s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s e s found i n s i g n i f i c a n t c o v a r i a t i o n export i n s t a b i l i t y  and  F o r example, C o u n t r y A,  w h i c h has an extreme amount o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y low t r a d e o r i e n t a t i o n , may  upon  and f l u c t u a t i o n s i n n a t i o n a l  G r o u p i n g h i s sample o f s e v e n t y c o u n t r i e s  between 41  income.  into t h i r d s accor-  ding  t o t h e degree o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y , Coppock r e p o r t e d 42 moderate r e l a t i o n s h i p . Macbean*s l o n g i t u d i n a l a n a l y s i s  a 43  o f a much s m a l l e r  number o f c o u n t r i e s  In some l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s t r a d e "some c o n s i s t e n t change i n GNP  y i e l d e d mixed r e s u l t s .  w i t h h i g h dependency  upon  r e l a t i o n s h i p between d i r e c t i o n o f  and e x p o r t s may w e l l e x i s t . " ' '  Macbean a l s o  examined t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y o t h e r i n d i c a t o r s o f d o m e s t i c economic c o n d i t i o n s 45 l i t t l e covariation.  and  b u t found  The consequences t o t h e d o m e s t i c economy have been e x a g g e r a t e d i n much o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e b u t t h e s e  clearly findings  do n o t i n d i c a t e t h a t e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y has o n l y meager e f f e c t s i n a l l l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s .  As Macbean  states:  - 16 A t no p o i n t do I deny t h a t some u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s may s u f f e r s e v e r e l y from e x p o r t i n stability. On the c o n t r a r y I f e e l c e r t a i n t h e y do. The s t u d y has n o t e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t f l u c t u a t i o n s i n e x p o r t e a r n i n g s do no damage t o u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , b u t i t has shown t h a t the c o n t r a r y view o f g r a v e i n t e r n a l t r o u b l e s a r i s i n g i n e v i t a b l y from e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i s n o t upheld, b y the o n l y r e a d i l y o b t a i n a b l e e v i d e n c e . * 4  5  These r e s u l t s have s t i m u l a t e d d i s c u s s i o n o f proposals  to counter  export  policy  i n s t a b i l i t y b u t have n o t  deterred  s p e c u l a t i o n about t h e d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l c o n s e q u e n c e s . f a v o u r a b l y n o t i n g Macbean's f i n d i n g s , r a t h e r  Pincus,  melodramatically  r e s t a t e s a v a r i a n t o f the c e n t r a l h y p o t h e s i s . Kwame Nkrumah l o i t e r s i n G u i n e a , a s o l i t a r y redeemer, s a v o r i n g memories o f former p o t e n c y and dreaming o f power as y e t u n t a s t e d . A p r o t e s t i n g Sukarno s l i d e s i n e x o r a b l y down a p o l e g r e a s e d by h i s c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r s . These v a g a r i e s , which h e l p shape t h e w o r l d ' s p o l i t i c a l d e s t i n i e s , a l l r e f l e c t i n p a r t the f l u c t u a t i o n s o f w o r l d markets f o r commodities t h e f o o d s t u f f s and raw m a t e r i a l s t h a t e n t e r w o r l d t r a d e . Nkrumah s u f f e r e d p o l i t i c a l l y from the consequences o f the f a l l i n g p r i c e s f o r c o c a o ; Sukarno from d e c l i n i n g r u b b e r p r i c e s and r e d u c t i o n s i n e x p o r t volume f o r t i n and rubber. . . . ? 4  Coppock s t r e s s e s the importance o f e x p o r t o f i t s " e f f e c t s on the i n t e r n a l and  instability  because  e x t e r n a l p o l i t i c s " o f many  countries.  H i s r a t h e r " c o l d w a r r i o r i s h " argument i s , t o quote  b r i e f l y , as  folloxvs:  The consequent i n t e r n a l economic d i s t r e s s p r o v i d e s one b a s i s f o r p o l i t i c a l d i s t u r b a n c e s . Political disturbances create opportunities f o r Soviet Communist p e n e t r a t i o n and the weakening o f t h e r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n o f t h e F r e e World.48  -  Economic D i s t u r b a n c e  17  -  and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e :  Walt Rostov/ i s one  o f t h e few  The  Evidence  e c o n o m i s t s who  has  attempted t o l i n k v a r i a b i l i t y o f t r a d e w i t h p o l i t i c a l i n stability.  He  expansion  examined t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between  cyclical  and d e p r e s s i o n o f t r a d e , unemployment, b r e a d p r i c e s  and o v e r t mass p r o t e s t i n n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y E n g l a n d . r e p o r t e d a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between c y c l i c a l h i g h unemployment, h i g h b r e a d p r i c e s and  He  depression,  extensive  political  49 protest.  However, i n s p e c t i o n o f Rostow's methodology  r e v e a l s t h a t , r a t h e r than accepted test.  s u p p o r t i n g t h e h y p o t h e s i s , he  i t as t r u e i n d e r i v i n g h i s i n d e x o f p o l i t i c a l  The  v a r i a b l e s are n o t i n d e p e n d e n t l y  Rostow has  defined.  had pro-  Although  o f t e n been c i t e d as p r e s e n t i n g d a t a i n s u p p o r t  of 50  the r e l a t i o n s h i p between economic and p o l i t i c a l h i s S o c i a l Tension Chart a t i n g on  instability,  " a t b e s t summarized i n f l u e n c e s o p e r -  the i n d u s t r i a l w o r k i n g c l a s s .  ( :  As he m e n t i o n s i n a  n o t e , h i s method makes "the q u i t e a r b i t r a r y judgement t h a t c y c l i c a l unemployment and h i g h f o o d p r i c e s were e q u a l l y r e s 51  ponsible for unrest." T.S.  A s h t o n , i n h i s economic h i s t o r y o f e i g h t e e n t h  century England,  p r o v i d e s some a n e c d o t a l e v i d e n c e  linking  economic f l u c t u a t i o n s w i t h r i o t s and o t h e r p o l i t i c a l  distur-  52  bances. Evidence  However, he makes an e r r o r s i m i l a r t o Rostow's. o f " s o c i a l u n r e s t and d i s t r e s s " i s a l s o used as a 53  c r i t e r i o n f o r c l a s s i f y i n g p e r i o d s as  depressions.  -  A l t h o u g h Rostov; and for  the h y p o t h e s i s ,  m i s t a k e n i n the  -  18  A s h t o n do n o t  add  empirical  t h e i r a c c e p t a n c e o f i t does n o t  l i g h t of l a t e r studies-  strife in  and  ?  civil  t u r m o i l , and  the  'short term d e p r i v a t i o n  a sample o f 115  countries.  ! !  o r economic  "Short  growth and  r a t e s of i n f l a t i o n ,  other  information  sig-  conspiracy,  t o t a l magnitude o f  r a t e s o f GNP  civil  disturbance  term d e p r e v i a t i o n  a composite measure combining a g g r e g a t e d a t a on trade value,  appear  Gurr reported  n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s between the magnitudes o f i n t e r n a l war,  support  trends  per  is  t :  in  capita  on economic c o n d i t i o n s , i n c l u d 54  ing  the c o n d i t i o n o f the e x p o r t m a r k e t s .  F e i e r a b e n d and  Fexerabend,  Conroe found a s i m i l a r c o r r e l a t i o n between  the growth r a t e s o f GNP  per  c a p i t a and  p o l i t i c a l violence  in  55  eighty-four discovered  countries.  an u n e x p e c t e d l a c k o f c o v a r i a t i o n between growth  r a t e s o f GNP countries.  per  c a p i t a and  Evaluating  l i k e l y explanation r a t e s as  However, i n an e a r l i e r s t u d y G u r r  was  c i v i l violence  i n l e s s developed  t h i s , G u r r c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e most "the  i n a d e q u a c y o f economic growth  an i n d i c a t o r o f t h e impact o f economic f l u c t u a t i o n s 56  on p e o p l e i n d e v e l o p i n g  countries.  T a n t e r and M i d l a r s k y GNP  per  found t h a t the c o r r e l a t i o n between  c a p i t a r a t e s o f change and  v a r i e d according  . . ."  to geographical  frequency of  and  c u l t u r a l region..  c o r r e l a t i o n f o r L a t i n American c o u n t r i e s was but  i n the M i d d l e E a s t and  A s i a i t v/as v e r y  t a t i o n o f t h e s e r e s u l t s i s the v e r y  revolution  insignificant strong.  s m a l l number o f 57  upon which the c o r r e l a t i o n s were computed.  The  One cases  limi-  - 19  In  -  h i s c l a s s i c s t u d y o f the CCF  L i p s e t a s s i g n e d p a r t i c u l a r importance  i n Saskatchewan, t o the '"boom and  bust"  c h a r a c t e r o f t h e wheat economy i n the development o f t h e radical protest party. c e i v e d by t h e Canadian  Re a l s o argues  that  "the p r i c e r e -  farmer i s more c l o s e l y determined  by  w o r l d market c o n d i t i o n s ^ t h a n i n o t h e r wheat e x p o r t i n g nations. A s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n e x i s t e d i n the economy o f t h e American South. c o n s i d e r e d analogous  "King C o t t o n "  Both a r e a s c o u l d be  usefully  i n the s t r u c t u r e o f t h e i r economies t o  many contemporary l e s s d e v e l o p e d  states.  Davies, i n f a c t ,  uses t h e a n a l o g y t o make t h e s i t u a t i o n i n t h e p r e C i v i l T'ar American South more u n d e r s t a n d a b l e . crisis  i n c o t t o n i n 1857,  R e f e r r i n g t o t h e economic  he w r i t e s :  I t was an epitome o f t h e s o u t h e r n dependence upon the North,- o f the dependence o f any rav-r m a t e r i a l p r o d u c i n g -colony on the f i n a n c i a l and o t h e r e c o n omic c i r c u m s t a n c e s o f t h e d i v e r s i f i e d "mother country." In 1857 the South was h i t by a p a n i c i n t h e New York commodity exchange market. . . . T h i s was t h e f i n a l c r i t i c a l downturn i n t h e g r a t i f i c a t i o n of Southerners. The growing and now enormous t e n s i o n s found release i n s e c e s s i o n ! 5 9  D a v i e s has p r e s e n t e d o t h e r h i s t o r i c a l e v i d e n c e i n s u p p o r t o f his  J - c u r v e h y p o t h e s i s on the o c c u r r e n c e o f  revolutions.  A c c o r d i n g t o t h e J - c u r v e h y p o t h e s i s , r e v o l u t i o n s are most probable  "when a p r o l o n g e d p e r i o d o f o b j e c t i v e economic  s o c i a l development i s f o l l o w e d by a s h o r t p e r i o d o f reversal!"  6 0  and  sharp  -  Worsley, Melanesia,  20  -  i n h i s s t u d i e s o f m i l l e n a r i a n movements i n  provides  an i n t e r e s t i n g  example  of the effects  of  61 export  instability.  plantation among for  system o f a g r i c u l t u r e  the native i n h a b i t a n t s .  copra,  and,  The European  the p r i n c i p a l T  introduced  and encouraged  The f l u c t u a t i o n s  export,  argues " o r s l e y , c r e a t e d  settlers  cash  cropping  i n t h e demand  were n o t r e a d i l y  individual  a  understood  and c u l t u r a l  stress.  . . . t h e v a g a r i e s o f t h e w o r l d economy a p p e a r m y s t e r i o u s , f o r t u i t o u s and u n c o n t r o l l a b l e t o t h e n a t i v e who r e c e i v e s s a y , £ 2 p e r t o n f o r h i s c o p r a p e r y e a r , £8 t h e next and p o s s i b l y i n o t h e r y e a r s may b e u n a b l e t o f i n d a b u y e r a t a l l . Wages a n d p r i c e s f o r t r a d e goods a r e s u b j e c t t o s i m i l a r fluctuations.62 Many in  o f t h e m i l l e n a r i a n movements n o t e d  "aggression  missionaries  by worsley  and even v i o l e n c e toward European  and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . "  He makes  argument a p p l i c a b l e t o contemporary T h x r d Hoviand  and Sears  between poor economic  found  settlers,  a  similar  World  states.  a strong positive  c o n d i t i o n s and h i g h  resulted  social  6 A  correlation aggression  65 xn the  the American frustration  posite of  aggression  and t h e farm  Negro l y n c h i n g s  of  I n an e c o l o g i c a l  economic i n d i c a t o r  cotton,  Since  south.  lynchings  (Ayres  value  and t o t a l  the absolute tended  value  hypothesis,  they  Index),  of cotton  t o decrease  t r e n d s were i n t e r c o r r e l a t e d .  lation  coefficients  1882 t o  value  1930. numbers  deviations  The t e t r a c h o r i c t o 0.72.  com-  t h e number o f  and t h e a b s o l u t e  0.61  a  the per acre  with"time,  linear  from  from  "testing"  compared  of cotton with  lynchings  ranged  analysis  from corre-  However, a  -  reanalysis  of their  correlations arbitrary  21 -  d a t a by ' - l i n t z d e m o n s t r a t e s  seem t o b e s t a t i s t i c a l  choice o f straight  lines  artifacts  that the high "causer", b y t h e  (to e l i m i n a t e trends),  66 which  a r e n o t a p p r o p r i a t e t o the data. '  tetrachoric total  time  statistic  substantially  these  data  reduced  r e p o r t e d by M i n t z .  Austin political  r  instability  evidence. illustrates  seemed  correlations, I also  T'antz  reanalyzed  to eliminate the trend.  The i n t r o d u c t i o n i n smaller  the export  The  o f o n e , two a n d  correlations.  performance o f cocao t o  i n Ghana, p r o v i d e s  The p a s s a g e below i s c i t e d t h e two s t e p s  fits  w e r e o f t h e same m a g n i t u d e a s  lags resulted linking  moment  coefficients.  averages  moment c o r r e l a t i o n s  time  Dividing the  segments w i t h i n w h i c h  u s i n g moving  three year  criticized.  and u s i n g n r o d u c t  found  product  was a l s o  period into  more r e a s o n a b l e  those  The u s e o f t h e  1  further  because  i n the hypothesized  anecdotal  i t clearly relationship.  I n 1961 t h e r e was a s e r i o u s c h e c k t o t h e e c o n o m y . A t a t i m e when t h e g o v e r n m e n t was h e a v i l y c o m m i t t e d on i t s c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e t h e c o c a o p r i c e b e g a n t o f a l l , a n d i t v/as o b l i g e d t o d r a w h e a v i l y o n i t s reserves. As p a r t o f t h e measures t a k e n , a h a r s h b u d g e t v/as i n t r o d u c e d i n m i d J u l y . Government e x p e n d i t u r e was l e f t u n t o u c h e d b u t i n c r e a s e d d u t i e s were l e v i e d on a wide r a n g e o f consumer goods i n an attempt t o r a i s e a d d i t i o n a l r e v e n u e . A new s y s t e m o f p u r c h a s e t a x was a l s o adopted, a n d a c o m p u l s o r y s a v i n g s scheme i m p o s e d w h e r e b y a l e v y o f 5 p e r c e n t v/as d e d u c t e d f r o m a l l s a l a r i e d a n d wage i n c o m e s o v e r £ 1 2 0 a y e a r . Prices rose s h a r p l y , a n d t h e n e t i n c o m e o f f a r m e r s a n d wageearners a l i k e f e l l . The b u d g e t b o r e h e a v i l y i n p a r t i c u l a r on t h e s k i l l e d and semi s k i l l e d w o r k e r , a n d a m a j o r s t r i k e t o o k p l a c e i n S e p t e m b e r among the r a i l w a y and harbour workers i n S e k o n d i - T a k o r a d i . I t was t h e f i r s t l a r g e s c a l e s t o p p a g e s i n c e t h e  - 22 m i n e r s s t r i k e o f 1955-56 and was based on g e n u i n e grievances. But because such a c t i o n was now illegal under t h e 1958 I n d u s t r i a l R e l a t i o n s A c t , a s t a t e o f emergency was d e c l a r e d i n t h e town. V i o l e n c e b r o k e o u t between t h e s t r i k e r s and p o l i c e . . . . The S e k o n d i s t r i k e was n o t p e r haps a major t h r e a t t o t h e regime, b u t i t was one t h a t might w e l l become s o . 6? The 1966  coup d ' e t a t which o v e r t h r e w Nkrumah has been  also  a t t r i b u t e d i n p a r t t o t h e d e c l i n e i n cocao p r o c e e d s . Bretrton» acknowledge»  the " c r i t i c a l "  r o l e o f f l u c t u a t i n g cocao p r i c e s  b u t he s t a t e s t h a t Ghana's economic d i s t u r b a n c e s were i n p a r t the r e s u l t o f g o v e r n m e n t a l mismanagement.  "To i n s i s t , "  he  states, as Nkrumah d i d t h a t t h e Ghanian economy was d e t e r i o r a t i n g s i m p l y because t h e consumers o f the vrorld's cocao r e f u s e d t o pay h i g h e r p r i c e s was something o f an e x a g g e r a t i o n . . . t h e c e n t r a l d e f i c i e n c y (was) - Nkrumah h i m s e l f . 6 8 Coups d ' e t a t i n L a t i n America have a l s o been w i t h economic d e t e r i o r a t i o n .  associated  Fossum's s t u d y o f L a t i n  m i l i t a r y coups i s one o f t h e few a t t e m p t s t o d e a l s y s t e m a t i c a l l y with the p o l i t i c a l  American  relatively  consequences o f e x p o r t v a r i -  69 ations.  Fossum n o t e s t h a t "most L a t i n American  countries  r e l y h e a v i l y on one o r a fev; p r o d u c t s f o r t h e i r incomes  and  70  a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y v u l n e r a b l e t o economic f l u c t u a t i o n s . " g r e a t e r f r e q u e n c i e s o f coups d u r i n g t h e e a r l y d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d from 1961 t o 1963  The  1930•s and  a r e e x p l a i n e d as  follows:  The f i r s t p e r i o d c o v e r s t h e g r e a t economic d e p r e s s i o n , and t h e l a s t p e r i o d i s a ' p e r i o d w i t h c o n s t a n t l y d e c l i n i n g p r i c e s on raw commodities on the w o r l d market. . . .  - 23 " I t s h o u l d be n o t e d , " he c o n t i n u e s t h a t t h e l o w e s t f r e q u e n c i e s a r e found d u r i n g the two w o r l d wars, n e i t h e r o f which touched L a t i n America d i r e c t l y e x c e p t by c r e a t i n g a g r e a t demand f o r L a t i n American e x p o r t s and hence an economic boom. "71 The t a b l e Possum i s i n t e r p r e t i n g i s r e p r o d u c e d below. TABLE I I I Number o f Coups p e r Three Y e a r I n t e r v a l s f o r Twenty L a t i n American  C o u n t r i e s 1907 - 66  Years  No.  Years  No.  1907-09  4  1937-39  3  1910-12  6  1940-42  0  1913-15  4  1943-45  9  1917-18  1  1946-48  9  1919-21  5  1949-51  5  1922-24  2  1952-54  6  1925-27  4  1955-57  8  1928-30  7  1958-60  2  1931-33  9  1961-63  10  1934-36  6  1964-66  5 Total  Source:  105  E g i l Fossum, " F a c t o r s I n f l u e n c i n g t h e O c c u r r e n c e o f M i l i t a r y Coups d ' E t a t i n L a t i n America," J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h , v o l . 4, no. 3 (1967), p. 237.  I t i s n o t r e a d i l y a p p a r e n t from t h i s t a b l e t h a t t h e war years, s p e c i f i c a l l y  1939 t o 1945, had a s i g n i f i c a n t l y  lower  -  frequency  o f coups  24 -  data are presented i n the paper t o  and no  support  the statement  exports  declined so sharply during For  dence.  t h a t commodity p r i c e s  Each year  p e r i o d v/as c l a s s i f i e d  i n this  He  proceeds  years.  culties,  relative  twice  The d a t a  year,  as e i t h e r  depending  during  present  evian  on whether  to the previous  as f r e q u e n t  and a n a l y s i s  some  year.  "deterior-  certain  diffi-  however.  In  his analysis,  Fossum  looked  eighty  per cent  only  or f e l l  t h a t c o u p s v/ere  found  ation"  rose  American  1961-1963.  t h e p e r i o d 1922-193 8 Fossum does p r e s e n t  "improvement" o r a " d e t e r i o r a t i o n " export  for Latin  seven  as i n t h e t a b l e  a t the c o n t i n e n t as an aggregate. o f the coups d u r i n g t h i s  o f t h e twenty  description  be o b t a i n e d  vidually?  reproduced  Given  i f each  country  that  period occurred i n  c o u n t r i e s , w o u l d n o t a more  Analyzing the l a t e r  does u s e t h e c o u n t r y ,  above,  accurate  v/ere e x a m i n e d  indi-  p e r i o d , 1951 t o 1 9 6 3 , Fossum  n o t t h e c o n t i n e n t , as t h e u n i t o f  72 analysis. specific defined world  With level  reference t o the independent  of aggregation  i s not clear.  according t o "the r i s e  exports  i n relation  or f a l l  variable, the  The y e a r s a r e  i n the value of  t o the preceding year"  (emphasis  73 added).  Whether he i s r e f e r r i n g  Latin  American  trade  i s problematic. In  or to the t o t a l  summary, t h e e v i d e n c e  relationship grave  exports  to the t o t a l  i s ambiguous.  value  i n support  Export  o f world  of the  instability  i n t e r n a l economic consequences  value of  in a l l  export  proposed  does n o t have  underdeveloped  -  countries.  25  -  There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e s p e c u l a t i o n and  anecdotal  e v i d e n c e i n s u p p o r t o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b u t the r e s u l t s t h e few  s t u d i e s examining  stability, specifically, or  of  t r a d e , i n g e n e r a l , and e x p o r t i n and t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e  the occurrence o f p a r t i c u l a r v i o l e n t events are  factory f o r a v a r i e t y of methodological reasons.  unsatisThere  does  hov/ever seem t o be a c o n s i s t e n t l y s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p between d o m e s t i c economic d i s t u r b a n c e and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e .  The E m p i r i c a l Domain and In  "Data-Making"  Procedures  t h i s p o r t i o n o f the t h e s i s , the p r o c e d u r e s  used  measure t h e v a r i a b l e s w i l l be d e s c r i b e d and the v a l i d i t y t h e measures w i l l be a s s e s s e d . hypotheses  w i l l be p r e s e n t e d and examined u s i n g d a t a countries.  the  on Next, t h e  w i l l be a n a l y z e d w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t groups o f coun-  t r i e s , s p e c i f y i n g the r e l a t i o n s h i p a c c o r d i n g t o r e g i o n and the type o f p o l i t i c a l The p r i m a r y a r e the h i s t o r i c a l  socio-economic  systems.  s o u r c e s f o r the e x p o r t p r o c e e d s trade series  statistics  for individual countries  found i n the U n i t e d N a t i o n s Yearbook o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Statistics.  of  In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n ,  forty-seven economically l e s s developed hypotheses  to  These s t a t i s t i c s  the U n i t e d N a t i o n s d e f i n e s as  Trade  are f o r merchandise t r a d e , which " a l l goods which add t o o r sub-  t r a c t from the m a t e r i a l r e s o u r c e s o f a c o u n t r y as a r e s u l t 74 t h e i r movements i n t o o r o u t o f t h e c o u n t r y . " e x c l u s i o n s are g o l d and economic a s s i s t a n c e .  The  major  of  26  -  Although the most  trade  accurate  verted  statistics  of error.  currencies vary  into  United  States  Hov/ever, t h e a p p r o p r i a t e determine. Nations  are usually considered  o f n a t i o n a l accounts  a number o f s o u r c e s countries'  -  Because  over  time,  dollars,  I n most  The  conversion  largest  into  currency. to  by t h e United are the o f f i c i a l  i s indeed  probably  con-  are d i f f i c u l t  they  accuracy  U.S. d o l l a r s  stable  provided  instances  exchange r a t e s , t h e r e f o r e t h e i r  o f many  t h e p r o c e e d s were  t h e most  factors  there are  the values  r a t e s o f exchange  The c o n v e r s i o n  were u s e d .  statistics,  among  suspect.  represents the  single  source  of error i n the data.  Another  source  of error i s that the trade  figures,  which  a r e r e p o r t e d b y t h e i n d i v i d u a l member c o u n t r i e s , a r e  based  on d i f f e r e n t  The  two m o s t  trade" two  f r e q u e n t l y used  and " g e n e r a l  systems  exported two  definitions  regarded.  conversion  each  country,  instability  scores  t o make t h e dis-  t h e few e x c e p t i o n s i n  f.o.b.  o f e r r o r and t h e e r r o r i n t r o d u c e d by are irrelevant  o f export  and r e -  t h e d i f f e r e n c e s were  I disregarded  were n o t v a l u e d  These sources  for  The main d i f f e r e n c e between t h e  comparable,  Similarly,  comparison  of trade.  of valuation are "special  B e c a u s e n o m e t h o d was a v a i l a b l e  strictly  which exports  currency  systems  o r systems  i s i n t h e method o f r e c o r d i n g warehoused  goods.  systems  trade."  of exports  instability  t o t h e c a l c u l a t i o n and  values  the error i s constant  i f i t i s assumed over  time.  a r e s t a n d a r d i z e d by t h e use o f  that,  The e x p o r t percentages  - 27 and c a l c u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f each c o u n t r y ' s e x p o r t p e r f o r mance o v e r t i m e . pared.  I n s h o r t , t h e a b s o l u t e v a l u e s a r e n o t com-  C o u n t r i e s f o r which t h e assumption  o f constant  error  75 appeared  l e s s warranted  were e x c l u d e d from t h e a n a l y s i s .  Time s e r i e s d a t a , such as t h a t on e x p o r t p r o c e e d s , be c o n s i d e r e d as c o n s i s t i n g o f t h r e e components:  long  t r e n d , a s h o r t term movement and random f l u c t u a t i o n s . of  can  term Studies  " t r a d e c y c l e s " a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e l o n g term movement o f  proceeds,  and e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y  s h o r t term v a r i a t i o n s . instability  i s d e f i n e d i n terms o f t h e  The f i r s t p r o b l e m i n m e a s u r i n g  t h e n i s t o s e p a r a t e t h e two p r i m a r y  T h e r e a r e a number o f ways o f d o i n g t h i s .  export  components.  As Y u l e and K e n d a l l  point out: We have t o be most c a r e f u l t h a t t h e r e s i d u a l s do not r e f l e c t the nature o f the t r e n d f i t t i n g r a t h e r than any i n t r i n s i c p r o p e r t y o f t h e i r own. In no b r a n c h o f s t a t i s t i c s do we have t o guard so much a g a i n s t p r o j e c t i n g o u r p r e c o n c e i v e d i d e a s i n t o t h e d a t a by t h e t e c h n i q u e o f a n a l y s i s adopted.76 The r e a n a l y s i s by M i n t z o f t h e Hovland  and Sears d a t a on l y n -  c h i n g s and c o t t o n p r i c e s s h o u l d amply demonstrate t h e d a n g e r s . The p r o c e d u r e  adopted,  t o s e p a r a t e t h e s h o r t term move-  ments from the t r e n d , was t o use moving a v e r a g e s .  Annual  t r e n d v a l u e s were computed u s i n g f i v e y e a r moving  averages  c e n t e r e d upon the m i d d l e y e a r .  S h o r t term  fluctuations  c a l c u l a t e d by t a k i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e annual v a l u e s and the a c t u a l a n n u a l v a l u e s o f e x p o r t p r o c e e d s . measure o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y centage  were trend The  i s t h e mean o f t h e annual- p e r -  d e v i a t i o n s from t h e t r e n d .  (The s t e p by s t e p compu-  -  tation  procedure  bility  was  t o be only  is illustrated  measured over  comparable w i t h available  28  three  the  f o r these  -  i n Table and  political time  year  Instability:  periods  Ceylon  372  -8  1962  380  377  3  1963  363  382  -19  -5.0  1964  394  381  13  3.4  1965  409  374  35  9.4  1966  357  1967  348  368  1960  385  1961  Macbean a l s o instability.  He  (%)  Export Instab. (1961-1965)  -2.1 .8  u s e d t h i s procedure that Coppock s 1  4.1  i n h i s study  -  writes  were  1961-1965  364  1959  order  Calculating  Deviation  Export Proceeds (U.S.Millions)  in  IV  Trend  Year  insta-  v i o l e n c e data, which  F i v e Year Moving Averages Method o f Export  Export  periods.  TABLE The  five  IV.)  log variance  of  export  measure  78 "approximates  fit] closely"  the  two  procedures.  log  v a r i a n c e measure are  the  validity  measure by  and  Since  but  does not  the United Nations'  directly  of the  i t to that of  five the  compare  measure and  strongly intercorrelated  reliability  comparing  he  I  the  assessed  year moving  United Nations.  averages Twelve  - 29 c o u n t r i e s were randomly s e l e c t e d and e x p o r t s t a b i l i t y s c o r e , were computed u s i n g b o t h methods f o r t h e 1950-1960 p e r i o d .  TABLE V A Comparison  of E x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y Measures f o r Twelve Countries:  1950  Export United Nations Method  Country  1960  Instability 5-Year M o v i n g A v e r a g e s Method  Jordan  44.0  23.0  Albania  22.6  16.4  Nicaragua  17.5  Pakistan  17.4  8.3 12.0  Peru Argentina  14.3  9 .2  12.5  8.6  Bolivia  11.7  13.6  France  11.6  6.7  Portugal  10.8  7.2 5.7  Braz-i-1 Czechoslovakia Paraguay  10 .5 9.3 a R o . ~>  3 .9 6.4  P e a r s o n p r o d u c t moment c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t :  0.89  The U n i t e d N a t i o n s and moving a v e r a g e s measures a r e also strongly correlated. The use o f moving a v e r a g e s does n o t n e c e s s i t a t e j p i g o r o u s a s s u m p t i o n s about t h e shape o f t h e t r e n d . "smooth t h e c u r v e . "  Moving a v e r a g e s  However, i n some c a s e s moving a v e r a g e s  are c l e a r l y i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r measuring e x p o r t f l u c t u a t i o n s .  -  The  case  of Libya provides  can  result.  between  10.7  proceeds twice but of  The  exports  and  15.2  1961  i n doing  they  such  as  terms o f  anecdotal  simply  mean o f of  i s concerned  negative  with  The  the  d e v i a t i o n s from the  Earlier •economically  i t was  the  underdeveloped  smooth t h e  i t was  curve  one  rapid  this  the  of  economists  t r e n d , much o f  export  of  are  are  al  trade.-  The  apparent  to  the d e t r i m e n t a l economic e f f e c t s  the  the type.  between  defined  as  export.  deviations.  c o u n t r i e s do  nor  proceeds,  the measure o f  that, contrary to  countries,  the  export  instability,  Losses  t r e n d and  little  analysis.  significance  losses.  one  growth.  deviations, ignores  greater export  instability  not  than  expectations, experience  sub-  industrialized  a l l h e a v i l y dependent.upon  internation  immunity  countries  dependent upon t h e  .In o t h e r words the  than  "losses" i n export  stantially  c o u l d be  t h e y were more  been d e f i n e d by  negative  found  they  In  I have d i f f e r e n t i a t e d  export  • l o s s e s " i s t h e mean o f  has  measure o f  i n exports. and  from  t o the  absolute percentage  variation  the  i n fact  d e v i a t i o n s about  attesting  ranged  19.59-1960 p e r i o d a s  whereas  instability  that  1961  a period of extremely  variation.  the  dollars.  averages  the  distortion  1954-1960  i n 1962  moving  interpret  s h o r t term  fluctuation  export  o f U.S.  L i b y a were e x c l u d e d  evidence  instability not  The  f o l l o w e d by  the  of Libya during  instability,  While export in  example o f  millions  value..  so  great  variation Cases  an  -  i n c r e a s e d s e v e n f o l d and  the  very  30  "impact"  size  of underdeveloped  of  of  export  the t r a d e  of export  instability orientation.  instability  varies  "  according tance with  t o the degree  of trade a very  stability than  t o t h e economy.  small trade  would,  a country  with  export  instability.I  duct  possibility  values with  a r e used,  product.  of  o f GNP  There  "capitalist" included  country.  by t h e p r o -  orientation.  Because  i s a  the absolute  enumerated  are relevant.  above  Further  trade t o gross  export  o f GNP  proceeds,  into  national the conver-  a common c u r r e n c y  More i m p o r t a n t , than  are variations  countries.  countries, the service  and, i n " s o c i a l i s t "  or undervalued.  the d e f i n i t i o n  i n definition i n between  F o r example, i n  industries  c o u n t r i e s , these  I n many  unit  the s t a t i s t i c a l  c o u n t r i e s and an even g r e a t e r a m b i g u i t y  and t h e underdeveloped  of  of the trade  are indicated  i s much m o r e v a r i a b l e  proceeds.  more d e v e l o p e d  nored  estimates  considerable error.  export  these  with  but with  t h e measurement o f t r a d e  of total  the case  immune"  impact  t o compute b u t t h e r e  statistics,  by t h e r a t i o  "more  f o r each  of error  country  export i n -  this  l o s s e s and t r a d e  a l l the sources  A s was  definition  values  o f measurement e r r o r .  of national  permits  losses  a  instability  To measure  i s introduced through  orientation  sion  export  the product  are simple  respect to trade  inaccuracy  from  and extreme argument, be  instability  instability  These v a l u e s great  have used  t h e impact  of export  to this  orientation.  and e x p o r t  and t h e impor-  As I s t a t e d above,  o n l y moderate  large trade  Similarly,  instability  orientation  according  a very  orientation  of export  underdeveloped  tend  t o be  are ofteni g c o u n t r i e s many  s e r v i c e s a r e n o t bought o r s o l d o r g i v e n a monetary v a l u e and,  t h e r e f o r e , are g e n e r a l l y excluded,  a r i s e s i n underdeveloped  .A s i m i l a r  problem  c o u n t r i e s t h a t have a l a r g e p r o p o r 81  t i o n of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n i n s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e . There i s p r o b a b l y g r e a t i n a c c u r a c y i n comparisons o f GNP  f o r developed  assumption  and u n d e r d e v e l o p e d  t h a t the e s t i m a t e s  as a group, a r e merely  c o u n t r i e s but  f o r underdeveloped  b i a s e d i s tenuous.  subsistence a g r i c u l t u r a l  ''sector" may  the  countries,  F o r example, t h e  be o v e r e s t i m a t e d  as  82 e a s i l y as u n d e r e s t i m a t e d .  The  assumption  i s c o n s t a n t w i t h i n the u n d e r d e v e l o p e d r e a l i s t i c than the assumption c o u n t r y ' s e x p o r t proceeds l a t t e r c a s e , some c r i t e r i a the assumption  t h a t the  error  countries i s less  t h a t the e r r o r i n an  i s constant over time.  individual In t h e  f o r e v a l u a t i n g the v a l i d i t y  were p r o v i d e d i n the d a t a s o u r c e .  s a t e f o r some o f t h e s e d e f i c i e n c i e s , impact  To  of  compen-  v a l u e s were 83  c a l c u l a t e d using d i f f e r e n t estimates of trade  orientation.  However, i n l i g h t o f the p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f e r r o r , t h e  results  o f the a n a l y s i s s h o u l d be t r e a t e d c a u t i o u s l y . There a r e a number o f p u b l i s h e d i n d i c a t o r s o f  poli-  t i c a l v i o l e n c e and a number o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n s t h a t c o u l d 84  be used  t o c o n s t r u c t measures f o r t h i s s t u d y .  difficult  to evaluate r i g o r o u s l y .  Both a r e  There a r e l i m i t e d pub-  l i s h e d comparisons o f i n d e p e n d e n t l y g a t h e r e d and s c a l e d 85  e s t i m a t e s of the e x t e n t of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . b i l i t i e s of convergent  validity  and r e l i a b i l i t y  The checks  possiare  made l e s s  feasible  mates a r e  temporally congruent.  domestic  because  group v i o l e n c e "  Dimensionality 1961-1962.  few  collected  of Nations  Project  those  of Gurr  v/as  L a c k i n g more p r e c i s e o f v i o l e n c e and  measures, which  For  Therefore, a precise  mates w i t h  measures  of the  I evaluated  accessible  example,  under  the  were n o t  impractical. means o f the  different  "deaths  collected of  relied  upon  and,  underdeveloped  and  variety  a more p r a c t i c a l  the  for  t h e DON  esti-  comparing  the  resources  to develop  data  of  various  collections,  the  two  Using  nev?  from  criteria.  sources  criterion,  countries included.  of  86  t h e measures were d e r i v e d , i n terms o f  T h e s e v/ere t h e number  esti-  from  auspices  comparison  lacking  the  readily  of information  the  number  these  of  criteria,  the  87 Gurr  d a t a were  judged  Although t h e New series  Gurr  York Times of other  and  African  was  compiled  the best gathered  I n d e x , he  sources  Digest.  such  available  Encyclopedia Britannica  study.  most o f h i s i n f o r m a t i o n scrutinized  a  a s F a c t s on  File,  In c o n t r a s t , the  u s i n g o n l y two  for this  comprehensive Asian  Feierabend  sources, Deadline  Yearbooks.  from  Recorder  data  Data  Hov/ever, t h e i r  bank  and  the  index  of  88 political I  am  violence correlates  attributing  ance  to the  sources.  data or  DON  Gurr.  to  t h e New  fewer  the  vari-  information  more s o u r c e s  York Times, but  c o u n t r i e s than  f o r 1961-1965.  unexplained  of the Feierabends•  r e s e a r c h e r s used  including  collection  1  large p r o p o r t i o n of  inadequacies  The  Feierabends,  a  0.700 w i t h G u r r s  either  than they the  the restricted  Feierabends  - 34 G u r r d e f i n e d c i v i l v i o l e n c e as  f !  a l l c o l l e c t i v e , non-  g o v e r n m e n t a l a t t a c k s on p e r s o n s o r p r o p e r t y , r e s u l t i n g i n i n t e n t i o n a l damage t o them, t h a t o c c u r w i t h i n t h e b o u n d a r i e s 89 of  an autonomous o r c o l o n i a l p o l i t i c a l u n i t . '  5  T T  i t h the  a s s i s t a n c e o f R u t t e n b u r g , he d e v e l o p e d a complex measure o f 90  the ' t o t a l magnitude o f c i v i l  strife."  The f i r s t f x v e b a s x c  estimates are the p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n i n v o l v e d , the p r o p o r t i o n of the area of the country i n which the v i o l e n c e i s o c c u r r i n g , t h e number o f c a s u a l t i e s , t h e amount o f p r o p e r t y damage and t h e d u r a t i o n o f t h e e v e n t s .  These f i v e b a s i c e s t i -  mates were t h e n combined i n t o t h r e e c o m p o s i t e m e a s u r e s ; " p e r v a s i v e n e s s , " " i n t e n s i t y , " and " a m p l i t u d e " o f v i o l e n c e . The t o t a l m a g n i t u d e o f c i v i l s t r i f e combination of these three.  represents the weighted  E s t i m a t e s o f t o t a l magnitude are  a v a i l a b l e f o r 1961-1963 and 1961-1965. T h i s measure o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i s one o f t h e amount of v i o l e n c e .  Many o f t h e a n e c d o t a l examples and t h e more s y s -  t e m a t i c s t u d i e s r e v i e w e d above were c o n c e r n e d w i t h p a r t i c u l a r types of v i o l e n t events.  Rostow examined  r i o t s and v i o l e n t  d e m o n s t r a t i o n s ? T a n t e r and M i d l a r s k y and D a v i e s a t t e m p t e d t o e x p l a i n t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f r e v o l u t i o n ; and Fossum a n a l y z e d f a c t o r s r e l a t i n g t o t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f m i l i t a r y coups d ' e t a t i n L a t i n America.  Rummel, T a n t e r , F e i e r a b e n d and F e i e r a b e n d 91  and F i r e s t o n e and McCormxck,  u s i n g f a c t o r a n a l y s i s have  shown t h a t t h e r e a r e t h r e e r e l a t i v e l y d i s t i n c t t y p e s o f v i o l e n t e v e n t s however.  As Fossum a r g u e s , f o r example, t h e r e may  well  be a r e l a t i o n s h i p between e x p o r t f l u c t u a t i o n s and a p a r t i c u l a r  - 35 -  t y p e o f e v e n t i n L a t i n A m e r i c a b u t my a n a l y s i s cannot that  probe  relationship. The  reliance of cross national studies of p o l i t i c a l  v i o l e n c e upon t h e news g a t h e r i n g a g e n c i e s has prompted some c r i t i c i s m . p o l i t i c s has p u t i t , manifested  f o rinformation  As one s t u d e n t o f L a t i n  i t appears  that p o l i t i c a l  American  stability "is  s i m p l y by t h e absence o f t h o s e i n t e r e s t i n g 92  events  t h a t a r e r e p o r t e d i n t h e news media." Many r e l e v a n t e v e n t s noted, i n the p u b l i c p r e s s .  a r e n o t r e c o r d e d a t a l l , much  less  This r a i s e s the serious p o s s i -  b i l i t y o f e r r o r i n t h e d a t a as a r e s u l t o f u n d e r r e p o r t i n g o f some e v e n t s i n p a r t i c u l a r c o u n t r i e s . events  I n o t h e r words, a r e t h e  r e c o r d e d i n t h e p r e s s a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sample o f a l l  the r e l e v a n t events?  Because t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n o f e v e n t s  i s unknown, t h e q u e s t i o n i s d i f f i c u l t  t o answer.  One way o f  i n c r e a s i n g t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sample i s t o use, as Gurr h a s , a l a r g e number o f d i v e r s e news s o u r c e s . One f a c t o r which c o u l d d e c r e a s e  the p r o b a b i l i t y i s the  extent of press censorship w i t h i n i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s . I t seems p l a u s i b l e t o e x p e c t s y s t e m a t i c u n d e r r e p o r t i n g i n count r i e s w i t h a r e p r e s s i v e government and s t r i c t p r e s s ship.  censor-  G u r r , u s i n g an i n d e x o f t h e degree o f p r e s s c e n s o r s h i p ,  tested this p o s s i b i l i t y .  The c o r r e l a t i o n s between t h i s  index  and measures o f t h e d u r a t i o n i n t e n s i t y and p e r v a s i v e n e s s o f c i v i l v i o l e n c e i n d i c a t e d t h a t "more s t r i f e  tends  t o be r e p o r t e d  from p o l i t i e s w i t h low p r e s s freedom, n o t l e s s as might be expected."  As he a l s o p o i n t s o u t , t h e s e r e s u l t s  "almost  -  36  -  c e r t a i n l y " r e f l e c t the c o v a r i a t i o n between economic develop93  ment and press freedom. i n developed  Because v i o l e n c e i s more "deviant"  c o u n t r i e s , I examined the p o s s i b i l i t y that the  degree of press censorship i s r e l a t e d t o the degree o f v i o lence w i t h i n underdeveloped countries t o be used i n the 94  analysis below.  (See Table VI)  The general lack of r e l a -  t i o n s h i p i n d i c a t e s that there i s l i t t l e systematic understatement r e s u l t i n g from press censorship i n underdeveloped countries as a whole or i n p a r t i c u l a r r e g i o n a l or p o l i t i c a l groupings  of underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s . TABLE VI Domestic Violence and the Extent of Press Freedom  Sample  Sample  Domestic Violence  19.61-1963  Total Sample  -0.064 (N=47)  -0.038 (N=47)  Latin Region  0.144 (N=21)  0.182 (N»21)  Personalist  Asian Region  -0.254 (N=13)  -0.016 (N«13)  Elistist  African Region  0.348 (N=12)  0.081 (N=12)  Centrist  r,  ,  U  Polyarchy 1-4.  Domestic Violence  1961-1963  1961-1965  "0.106  1961-1965 0.275 (N=14)  ( N = 1 4 )  0.238 Q<J=13)  -0.018 (N=13)  0.193 (N=13)  0.201 (N=13)  j ^ f  1  0.264 <N*7)  Another problem concomitant with r e l i a n c e upon news 95  sources i s the lack of d e t a i l e d information on some events. To supply estimates for missing data on p a r t i c u l a r events, Gurr used the mean of a l l other countries f o r the event i n question. As he notes, t h i s procedure provided "implausibly high e s t i -  37 -  mates"  f o r some e v e n t s  values  Gurr  from  The  my  96 countries.  and  considered grossly  The  c o u n t r i e s whose  overestimated  were  excluded  sample.  Hypotheses The  tionship  and  first  between  Results  hypothesis  i s that there  the  of export  amount o f p o l i t i c a l  degree  i s a positive  instability  violence i n economically  and  rela-  the  underdeveloped  countries. Hypothesis  1.  The g r e a t e r t h e d e g r e e o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e d by an u n d e r d e v e l o p e d country, the g r e a t e r t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n that country. The  evidence,  proposition  anecdotal  has  Much o f export price  strikes,  an  this  and  a relationship The  evidence  from  losses of proceeds  more i m p o r t a n t ,  the  than  the  c o u n t r i e s are d i s p l a y e d . f o r both  losses  the  latter.  The  country are  examples  A  type  t o be  While a n <  ^  just  as  the  and  hypothesized coups  d'etat.  important, per  instability  or  se.  In  data  for  the degree o f export i n B  i s the  g r e a t e r than  noted  and  of proceeds  Country  clearly  of  In Ghana,  Fossum  years"  hypothetical export  former two  followed.  fluctuation  two  this  cocao h a r v e s t d e c l i n e d  were c o n s i d e r e d  following table  stability  to a p a r t i c u l a r  "deterioration  the  of  related  coup d ' e t a t  between  of  above.  losses i n export proceeds,  proceeds  riots  systematic, i n support  been reviewed  fluctuation, of  and  and  the  same,  those  of  evidence  the the discussed  - 38  -  TABLE V I I Hypothetical Export I n s t a b i l i t y  Percentage  Data  f o r Two  D e v i a t i o n s from t h e Trend.  Country A  Country  Year  1  -3  -3  Year  2  8  -8  Year  3  -12  12  Year  4  -10  10  Year  5  4.3  4.3  Export Losses  5.0  2.8  would l e a d one  B  3  3  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  earlier  Countries  to i n f e r  g r e a t e r v i o l e n c e than Country  t h a t C o u n t r y A would  suffer  B.  Hypothesis I I . The g r e a t e r t h e l o s s e s i n e x p o r t s o f an underd e v e l o p e d c o u n t r y , the g r e a t e r the amount o f violence i n that country. The  evidence l i n k i n g  economic d i s t u r b a n c e s was  export i n s t a b i l i t y to  domestic  "ambiguous" and as I have p o i n t e d  o u t t h e e f f e c t s o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y on the n a t i o n a l economy may  depend upon the "impact"  the e f f e c t  of e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y .  would v a r y w i t h the degree  and the importance  of export  o f t r a d e t o the economy.  That i s ,  instability  Accepting  this  - 39 -  argument, and  given  the  consistent  e c o n o m i c d i s t u r b a n c e s and a positive and  relationship  political  relationships  political  between  the  violence, impact  between  one  would  of export  expect  instability  violence.  Hypothesis  III.  The o r r e a t e r t h e i m p a c t o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i n an u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r y , t h e g r e a t e r t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n t h a t c o u n t r y . The  same r e a s o n i n g  extends  to the  losses  from  export  instability. Hypothesis  IV.  The g r e a t e r t h e i m p a c t o f l o s s e s f r o m e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i n an u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r y , t h e g r e a t e r t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n that country. These hypotheses correlational less  dent  are  of  specific  computed  a time  there  allowed lagged  T a b l e s V I I I , IX,  t h r e e and  five  indepen-  year  time  As  be  legitimate  time  periods.  f o r , or e x p l i c i t l y  of  the  p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e measures.  relationship.  results  A l l of  this  and  cannot  a m i n e d a l l o w i n g f o r one The  countries contained i n  f o r which Gurr  years w i t h i n these  implicitly  in  (The  to the periods  the  cross-sectional  f o r forty-seven economically  were measured o v e r  this,  in a  i n T a b l e X I I I below.)  corresponding  Ruttenburg result  of data  countries.  listed  variables  periods,  of  analysis  developed  sample  were examined  and  the  X and  two  The year  hypotheses time  A brief  about  A number o f  i n c l u d e d , the  correlational XI.  inference  are  a  studies  possibility also  ex-  lags.  analysis inspection  are of  presented these  tables  -  40 -  TABLE Export  Instability  and P o l i t i c a l  Underdeveloped  Countries:  Time L a g  Export  None  Mean  Year  Mean  Mean  deviations  deviations  deviations  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  i n Forty-Seven  Correlation Coefficients  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  2 years  Violence  Instability  Mean s q u a r e d  1  VIII  deviations  Political 1961-1963  Violence 1961-1965  -0.139  -0.098  (N=47)  (N=46)  -0.164  -0.995  (N=47)  (N=46)  0.029  0.021  (N=42)  (N=41)  0.052  0.055  (N=42)  (N=41)  -0.067  -0.060  (N=41)  (N=40)  -0.023  0.073  (N=41)  (N=40)  - 41  TABLE IX Export Losses and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n Forty-Seven Underdeveloped Countries-  Correlation Coefficients  Time Laq  Export Losses  None  Mean negative deviations  1 year  2 years  P o l i t i c a l Violence 1961-1963 1961-1965 -0.189  -0.093  (N=47)  (N=46)  Mean squared negative deviations  -0.14 8  -0.082  (N=47)  (N=46)  Mean negative deviations  -0.046  -0.186  (N=42)  (N=41)  Mean squared negative deviations  -0.035  -0.158  (N=42)  (N=41)  Mean negative deviations  -0.195  -0.241  (N=40)  (N=40)  -0.269  -0.209  (N=41)  (N=40)  Mean squared negative deviations  42 -  TABLE X Export  Instability  Forty-Seven  Impact  and P o l i t i c a l  Violence i n  Underdeveloped Countries;  Correlation  Coefficients  Time L a g  None  Export H  Instability  Impact;  Impact;  1  2  year  years  mean  Impact  Political 1961-1963  v  i°lf ^ 1961-1965 n  deviations 1957 1955  • 0 .026 •0.142  0.039 -0.075  mean s q u a r e d deviations 1957 1965  •0 .048 -0.170  -0.014 -0.086  0 .008 -0.180  0.166 0.023  0.040 0.021  0.136 0.050  Impact;  mean  deviations 1957 1965  Impact;  mean s q u a r e d deviations 1957 1965  Impact  mean deviation::-. 1957 1S65  -0.0 84 -0.105  0.108 •0.035  Impact:  mean s q u a r e d deviations 1957 1965  -0.045 -0.056  0.036 -0.056  -  43 -  TABLE XI Impact  of Losses  Violence  from  Export  i n Forty-Seven  Underdeveloped  Correlation  Time L a a y  None  Export  Instability  I n s t a b i l i t y Losses ~  Impact l o s s e s ; Mean d e v i a t i o n s  Impact L o s s e s s Mean d e v i a t i o n s  Impact L o s s e s ; Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  2 years  Political  Countriesr  Coefficients  Impact L o s s e s : Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  1 year  and  Impact L o s s e s ; Mean d e v i a t i o n s  Impact L o s s e s : Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  Political 1961-1963  Violence 1961-1965  1957  -0.095 (N=43)  -0.022 (N=43)  1965  -0.170 (N=47)  -0.075 (N=46)  1957  -0.058 (N=43)  -0.070 (N=43)  1965  -0.153 (N=47)  -0.086 (N=46)  1957  -0.084 (N=40)  -0.117 (N=40)  1965  -0.080 (N=42)  -0.190 (N=41)  1957  -0.077 (N=40)  -0.113 (N=40)  1965  -0.073 (N=42)  -0.172 (N=40)  1957  -0,267 (N=39)  -0.096 (N=39)  1965  -0.261 . (N=41)  -0.194 <N=40)  1957  -0.307 (N=39)  -0.128 (N=39)  1965  -0.304 (N=40)  -0.190 (N=40)  indicates port and  that there  instability,  a  export  o r no c o v a r i a t i o n b e t w e e n e x -  losses, export  t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e .  coefficients the  i s little  largest  slight  are close t o zero. coefficients  negative  lo33ea  frcrc  export  four hypotheses  there  are zero  of Results;  Hypotheses that  the proposed  underdeveloped economic  c a n be u n a m b i g u o u s l y  relationships  Type o f P o l i t i c a l  within independently  S o c i o Economic  I through  IV were  relationships  countries,  formulated  would h o l d  The whether  specified  on t h e a s s u m p t i o n  f o r a l l economically  -regardless of the geographic,  r e g i o n and type  of p o l i t i c a l  theses  not signal  the completion  other  c  R e g i o n and  i s a lack of support  i s no c o v a r i a t i o n b e t w e e n  variables are not controlled,  socio  system.  f o r these  hypo-  of the a n a l y s i s .  f o r o n e , p o i n t s out, t h e a s s u m p t i o n  i f there  impact  question.  that there  that  t o be  l o s s e s and  rejected,  Demonstrating  Selvin,  appears  System  and c u l t u r a l  should  the signs of  IX, XI) t h e r e  between e x p o r t  i s , hov/ever, a n o t h e r  Specification  from  i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e .  first  subsamples  impact  Most o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n  Judging  (Tables  relationship  instability  i n doing  As  so i s  two v a r i a b l e s when a l l  there w i l l  be no  covari-  97 a t i o n when o t h e r This more  assumption  factors  are controlled  i s n o t always  o r taken  c o r r e c t and s h o u l d  xnto  account.  be examined  closely. The  subdivided  sample o f f o r t y - s e v e n u n d e r d e v e l o p e d into  three  relatively  homogeneous  c o u n t r i e s was  socio-economic  regions.  These  and,  few  with  regions  are  exceptions,  Africa,  they  Asia  and  correspond  Latin  closely  America, with  common  99 geographical based,  divisions.  Using  Another  factor  a n a l y s i s was  associated with  scores  sample on regions  f o r each  according  are  of  into  The  This  on  and a  the  i n order  political  then  grouped  some o f  the  Russett's  primary  exclusions  appear  s a m p l e was system;  after  changes.  The  based  were  1958.  small  Russett's  regions  Rather were  size  noted  of  Latin  were combined  for statistical  minor r e v i s i o n s that are and  are  A f r o - A s i a n r e g i o n , they 101  cases  into  countries  assignments here  African region.  l a r g e r number o f  compute  scores.  Semi-developed L a t i n  "personalist."  to  sample,  separate  social,  v a r i a b l e s most  i n c l u d e a number o f  c h a n g e and  The  of  dimensions.  d i d not  a  were n e c e s s a r y  basic  c o u n t r i e s were  factor  sample n e c e s s i t a t e d o t h e r  American  regions  fifty-four  five  c o u n t r i e s w h i c h became i n d e p e n d e n t  grouped  was  eighty-four countries i n his  i n c l u d e them i n R u s s e t t ' s  provide  defined  reduced  dimension  the  to these  educated guesswork.  than  countries  Russett  i n my  African  performed  each  each dimension.  Because  my  a n a l y s i s ... R u s s e t t  demographic v a r i a b l e s i n t o  factor  strongly  inductively  of  homogeneity.  factor  e c o n o m i c and  on  classification  i n p a r t , upon R u s s e t t ' s  "sociocultural  that  The  to  manipulation.  i n Table  XII  reasonable.  a l s o grouped  according  "polyarchic," " e l i t i s t , "  These groupings  were d e r i v e d  to  the  type  "centrist," from a Q  of and  factor  -  46  TABLE Sample C o u n t r i e s  Country  Afganistan Argentina Bolivia Brazil Burma Cambodia Ceylon Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador E l Salvador Ethiopia Ghana Greece Guatemala Honduras India Indonesia Iraq Kenya Liberia  Region  According  System  Political System  A • 1 Asxan Latin Latin Latin Asian Asianl Asian Latin Latin Latin Latin  Latin Latin Latin African African Western Latin Latin Asian Asian Asian African African  XII  Classified Political  -  Malagasy Malaysia Mexico Morocco Nicaragua Pakistan Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Portugal Sierra Personalist Leone P e r s o n a l i s t Sudan Personalist Syria Taiwan Centrist Thailand Elitist Togo Polyarchic Personalist Tunisia P e r s o n a l i s t Turkey Uganda Polyarchic UAR Elitist P e r s o n a l i s t Uruguay Venezuela Elitist Centrist J  x x  Region  and  Type  Country  Centrist Personalist Polyarchic Polyarchic Elitist Elitist Polyarchic Polyarchic Polyarchic Polyarchic Centrist  x  to  Region  Political System  African Asian Latin African Latin Asian Latin Latin Latin Latin Latin  Elitist Polyarchic Polyarchic Elitist3 Personalist Elitist Personalist Personalist Personalist Polyarchic Centrist  i African, African Asian Asian Asian ^ African, African Asian , African African Latin Latin  Elitist Elitist Personalist Centrist Personalist Elitist Elitist Polyarchic Elitist Centrist Polyarchic Polyarchic 2  N o t i n c l u d e d i n R u s s e t t , I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e g i o n s and t h e Intern a t i o n a l System: A S t u d y o f P o l i t i c a l E c o l o g y , C h i c a g o , Rand M c N a l l y , 1967, pp. 24-25. 2 N o t i n c l u d e d i n B a n k s and G r e g g , " G r o u p i n g P o l i t i c a l S y s t e m s : Q-Factor A n a l y s i s of A Cross P o l i t y Survey," American B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n t i s t , v o l . 9 (November 1 9 6 5 ) . p p . 3-6. Classified  as  "polyarchic"  in  Ibid.  - 47 -  analysis  by Banks  and Gregg o f t h e p o l i t i c a l  variables  from  102 A  Cross-Polity  Russett  these  dichotomized istics by  such  Survey. variables  vant  as "freedom  i s a general variables  approach  used  ting  f  politically  o f group  groups/'  lack  to the less  politics  :  group.  "relatively  to bring  about  "articulation  on t h e o r e t i c a l l y r e l e so t h a t  countries largely  states  'modernizing  rapid  character-  and "personalismo."  group, with  group  These  small  used by  the judgemental  S u r v e y must be r e l i e d  developed  The " e l i t i s t '  relevant  "charisma,"  o f "hard" data  data  consisting of  opposition,"  the "polyarchic"  regional  having  the aggregate  soft " generally  i n A Cross-Polity  "democratic." African  : ;  i n comparative  Briefly, corresponds  are  or trichotomized  non a s s o c i a t i o n a l  There  Unlike  upon.  few e x c e p t i o n s , usually  considered  overlaps  with the  are characterized elites'"  who  a r e "attemp-  and r a d i c a l s o c i a l change.  smallest  group  i n this analysis  consists  of "totalitarian,  as  . ."  i s t h e " c e n t r i s t " group  The  which  s e m i - t o t a l i t a r i a n , and a u t h o r i t a r i a n  103 regimes." as  Banks  an a l t e r n a t i v e  nations  to "personalist."  These  authoritarian"  "personalist"  c h a n g e s w e r e made i n t h e a s s i g n m e n t  and Gregg  o t h e r s who h a v e u s e d  Gurr, ^  and W i l k e n f e l d .  Republic  loads  1  highly  of  countries  T h e s e v/ere made o n t h e b a s i s  s p e c i f i c groupings.  ments by Banks by  use " s p o r a d i c a l l y  are l a r g e l y Latin.''"^ Minor  to  and Gregg  i n t h e i r paper  o f com-  and t h e r e v i s i o n s  made  the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y F o r example,  on t h e p o l y a r c h i c  although  t h e Dominican  f a c t o r , Banks  and Gregg  - 48  -  c o n s i d e r e d t h i s as a r e s u l t o f c o d i n g e r r o r i n the  original  study.  regrouped  F o l l o w i n g G u r r , the Dominican R e p u b l i c was  i n t o the  "personalist" category.  Other  changes a r e n o t e d i n  Table' X I I . To p r o v i d e a c r i t e r i o n  f o r e v a l u a t i n g the  and v a l i d i t y o f t h e s e g r o u p i n g s ,  reliability  I compared t h e Banks  and  Gregg assessment o f " p o l y a r c h y , " measured i n terms o f  the  l o a d i n g of each c o u n t r y on the  "polyarchy" f a c t o r , with  independent  judgements o f p o l i t i c a l democracy i n l e s s  countries.  The  r e s u l t s of F i t z g i b b o n ' s p o l l i n g of  other  developed  Latin  107 American e x p e r t s were used.  These have the advantage o f  p r o v i d i n g scores f o r d i f f e r e n t p e r i o d s of time, t h e r e f o r e perm i t t i n g e v a l u a t i o n o f the s t a b i l i t y o f t h e degree o f p o l y a r c h y across time.  The  data are presented i n Table X I I I .  i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s and the mean "democratic groupings  the s i g n i f i c a n t l y  The  large difference i n  achievement" s c o r e s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e s e  a r e r e l a t i v e l y homogeneous and do n o t change  n i f i c a n t l y with  high  sig-  time.  There i s l i t t l e  evidence t o suggest  t h e s t r e n g t h and  d i r e c t i o n o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o r p a r t i c u l a r groups o f countries.  The  anecdotal evidence, r e l a t i n g export  instability  e x p o r t l o s s e s and economic d i s t u r b a n c e s t o p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e , would seem t o s u g g e s t t h a t p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s within  "non-democratic"  countries.  provide a firm basis f o r p r e d i c t i o n . economic r e g i o n s , I cannot  exist  T h i s , however, does n o t S i m i l a r l y , with  socio-  s p e c i f y , f o r example, t h a t the  - 49 TABLE XIII A Comparison of Two Measures of "Democracy"  Group  Country  Personalist Polyarchic Polyarchic Polyarchic Polyarchic Polyarchic Centrist Personalist Personalist Personalist Personalist Personalist Polyarchic Personalist Personalist Personalist Personalist Polyarchic Polyarchic  Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Ecuador E l Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela  Democratic Achievement 1965 1960  Spearman Rank Order C o r r e l a t i o n s 1. 2. 3.  662 401 574, 755 638, .5 781, ,5 381 448 510.5 437 248 423.5 674 420 542.5 331 556 781.5 665  704.5 439 648.5 741.5 651.5 768 452 556. ,5 508. .5 483, ,5 309, ,5 452 ,5 664 370.5 519.5 284 562.5 785 611.5  Democratic Achievement 1960 Democratic Achievement 1965 Polyarchy Factor Loading  1 1.0 0.98 0.85  2  Polyarchy Factor Loading -.539 -.573 -.616 -.741 -.656 -.807 -.171 -.536 -.399 -.258 -.488 -.650 -.431 -.587 -.316 -.481  -.-&«-?-  -.637 -.399 3  1.0 0.87  1.0  Mean Scores on "Democratic Achievement" f o r P e r s o n a l i s t and Polyarchic Countries 1960 1965 P e r s o n a l i s t mean score 475.1 457.9 Polyarchic mean score 663.6 658.8 Sources:  R u s s e l l H. Fitzgibbon, "Measuring Democratic Change i n L a t i n America," The Journal of P o l i t i c s , v o l . 29 (February 1967), pp. 129-166 (Reprinted "Tn John E. Mueller, ed., Approaches to Measurement i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l Relations: A Non Evangelical Survey, New York, Appleton Century-Crofts, 1969, pp. 253-282.) Arthur S. Banks and P h i l l i p Gregg, "Grouping P o l i t i c a l Systems: Q-Factor Analysis of A Cross P o l i t y Survey," The American Behavioral S c i e n t i s t , v o l . 5 (November 1965) , p. 4. ' •  - 50 r e l a t i o n s h i p between v i o l e n c e and e x p o r t l o s s e s w i l l be s t r o n g l y p o s i t i v e f o r t h e L a t i n group for  t h e A s i a n group.  and s t r o n g l y n e g a t i v e  T h e r e f o r e , the hypotheses  are simply  t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p s with p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e w i l l vary dep e n d i n g upon t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e g i o n and t y p e o f p o l i t i c a l system. Hypothesis V. The c o r r e l a t i o n between e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y and the p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e v a r i e s depending upon the s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e g i o n o r t h e t y p e o f p o l i t i c a l system. Hypothesis V I . The c o r r e l a t i o n between e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e v a r i e s depending upon t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e g i o n and t h e t y p e o f p o l i t i c a l system. Hypothesis V I I . The c o r r e l a t i o n between e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y impact and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e v a r i e s depending upon t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e g i o n and t h e t y p e o f p o l i t i c a l system. Hypothesis  VIII.  The c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e l o s s e s o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y impact and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e v a r i e s depending upon t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e g i o n and t h e type o f p o l i t i c a l system.  L i k e the previous four hypotheses, using cross-sectional c o r r e l a t i o n . e r a t e d w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l .  t h e s e were examined  Not a l l o f t h e t a b l e s genHowever, t h e methodologi-  c a l problems noted i n p a r t i c u l a r t a b l e s a r e common t o many o f them.  The t a b l e s n o t r e p o r t e d i n t h e t e x t below c a n be found  i n the appendices.  - 51 In the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of a zero r e l a t i o n s h i p , the p a t t e r n of c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i s o f p a r t i c u l a r importance. aid i n evaluating significance  the correlation c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  t e s t s w i l l be u s e d .  To  statistical  Much o f t h e c o n t r o v e r s y ,  c o n c e r n i n g t h e use and m i s u s e o f s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t s , i s i r r e l e v a n t when c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e computed. and  The s i z e  s i g n o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t i n d i c a t e t h e e x t e n t and d i r e c t i o n  of c o v a r i a t i o n .  That i s , t h e r e i s l e s s danger o f c o n f u s i n g  s t a t i s t i c a l with substantive s i g n i f i c a n c e o r importance.  '-ith  a s m a l l , and i n many c a s e s , f l u c t u a t i n g number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s , the  s i z e o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t may be d e c e p t i v e .  The  t e s t s p r o v i d e a s i m p l e means o f a s s e s s i n g t h e " r e a l i t y "  the  o b s e r v e d r e l a t i o n s h i p , as opposed t o t h e h y p o t h e s i s  i t i s a p r o d u c t o f chance. dence r e l e v a n t  In short,  t o the elimination  the tests provide  o f one p l a u s i b l e  hypothesis which threatens i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y . used t o e i t h e r  " s a n c t i f y o r condemn  :  t r a r y tendency.  evi-  alternative  They a r e n o t 108  t h e r e i s a mod-  e r a t e p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y  duced ( T a b l e X I V ) .  that  a relationship.  W i t h i n t h e A f r i c a n group o f c o u n t r i e s ,  p o l i t i c a l violence  of  and  when one and two y e a r t i m e l a g s a r e i n t r o Among t h e L a t i n c o u n t r i e s  there i s a con-  While the simultaneous c o r r e l a t i o n s  a near zero r e l a t i o n s h i p , t h e time lagged c o r r e l a t i o n s c a t e a weak n e g a t i v e t e n d e n c y  (see T a b l e X V ) .  indicate indi-  -  52 -  TABLE XIV  Export  Instability  and P o l i t i c a l  Countries;  Time L a g  Export  None  Mean  1  year  Mean  Political 1961-1963  0.160  (N=12)  (N=12)  d e v i a t i o n s -0.261  0.014  (N=12)  (N=12)  0.449  0.618  deviations  (N=7) deviations  0.421 (N=7)  2  years  Mean  deviations  0.502 (N=7)  Mean s q u a r e d  deviations  0.499 (N=7)  * p » < .05  ** P =  Violence 1961-1965  -0.215  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  i n African  Correlation Coefficients  Instability  Mean s q u a r e d  Violence  < -01  (N=7) 0.701* (N=7) 0.845** (N=7) 0.763* (N=7)  - 53 T A B L E XV  Export I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n L a t i n Countries:  Tl-e  Lag  None  1 year  2 years  Correlation Coefficients  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  ggfig?  ^lltT-lseS  Mean deviations  0 .225 (N=21)  0.059 (N=20)  Mean squared deviations  0.209 (N=21)  0.153 (N=20)  Mean deviations  -0.321 (N=21)  -0.283  Mean squared deviations  -0.320 (N=21)  -0.267 (N=21)  Mean deviations  -0.360 (N=21)  -0.270 (N=21)  Mean squared deviations  -•0.337 (N=21)  -0.238 (N=21)  (N=21)  - 54 TABLE XVI Export  Instability  and P o l i t i c a l  Countries:  Correlation Coefficients  Time Lag  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  None  Mean deviations  Violence  P o l i t i c a l Violence 1961-1963 1961-1965  Mean squared deviations  -0.313  -0.313  (N=13)  (N=13)  -0.360  -0.265  (N=13)  (N=13)  0.606*  Mean deviations  1 year  i n Asian  (N=12) Mean squared deviations Mean deviations  2 years  Mean squared deviations  *  0.188 (N=12)  0.214  0.608* (N=12)  (N=12)  0.167  -0.108  (N=12)  (N=ll)  0.249  -0.151  (N=12)  (N=ll)  p = < .05 The r e l a t i o n s h i p between export i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l  violence i s not a t a l l c l e a r i n Asian countries. lag, the tendency i s s l i g h t l y negative.  With no time  For the 1961-1965  period of v i o l e n c e , the c o e f f i c i e n t s i n d i c a t e a zero r e l a t i o n ship with one and two year lags.  The high c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r  the three year period and one year time l a g however, i n d i c a t e a strong p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p .  A t best, the c o r r e l a t i o n s i n -  dicate a weak p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n .  - 55 Analysis and  political  illustrates depends upon strong five  o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between e x p o r t  violence  that  the extent  context.  negative  within  different political  In the polyarchic  correlation.  two y e a r  lag, statistically  The  c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the three  are  consistently negative  Time L a g  None  1  2  year  years  * p  = < .05  Export  countries  and v i o l e n c e  there  are, with  and s u b s t a n t i v e l y year period,  (see Table  TABLE  Countries;  also  i s a  A l l of the c o e f f i c i e n t s f o rthe  and  Instability  systems  and d i r e c t i o n o f t h e c o v a r i a t i o n  y e a r measures o f i n s t a b i l i t y  Export  instability  a one  significant.  although  smaller,  XVII).  XVII  and P o l i t i c a l  Violence  i n Polyarchic  Correlation Coefficients  Instability  Political  Violence  1961-1963  1961-1965  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  0.113 (N=14)  -0.016 (N=14)  Mean s q u a r e d  0.079 (N=14)  0.080 (N=14)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0.294 (N=14)  -0.628* (N=14)  Mean s q u a r e d  -0.239 (N=14)  -0.591* (N=14)  -0.397 (N-14)  -0.569* (N=14)  deviations  deviations  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  - 56 The  f a c t that there i s a negative  r e l a t i o n s h i p within  the p o l y a r c h i c group of countries coincides with e a r l i e r specul a t i o n about the s p e c i f i c a t i o n according type.  Based on the lack o f anecdotal  to p o l i t i c a l system  examples r e l a t i n g export  i n s t a b i l i t y to violence i n "democratic" c o u n t r i e s . I speculated that the r e l a t i o n s h i p would tend to be p o s i t i v e within "non democratic" c o u n t r i e s . t a r i a n countries  Following t h i s , I combined the a u t h o r i -  (the c e n t r i s t , e l i t i s t and p e r s o n a l i s t groups)  i n t o a "non p o l y a r c h i c " category.  Testing the hypothesis f o r  t h i s category provides no evidence to confirm the speculation There i s a zero r e l a t i o n s h i p between export i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l violence i n "closed" p o l i t i c a l systems (see Table XVIII) . TABLE XVIII Export I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n "Non P o l y a r c h i c " Countries;  Correlation Coefficients P o l i t i c a l Violence 1961-1965 1961-1963  Time Lag  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  None  Mean deviations  -0.207 (N=33)  -0.112 (N=32)  Mean squared deviations  -0.233 (N=33)  -0.129 (N=32)  Mean deviations  0.149 (N=28)  0.264 (N=27)  Mean squared deviations  0.174 (N=28)  0.286 (N=27)  Mean deviations  0.102 (N=27)  0.137 (N=26)  Mean squared deviations  0.140 (N=27)  0.090 (N=26)  1 year  2 years  - 57 Examining systems  the  -  d i f f e r e n t types  separately,  reveals  "closed"  a weak p o s i t i v e  the  personalist  The  c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s computed w i t h  measures range puted  for  tended are  the  countries  of  from  0.332 t o  shorter  While  the  to  larger,  be  and  0.381.  time p e r i o d  two  The  are  i t w o u l d be  course,  is a  year the  five  lags. year  zero.  longer  incorrect  can  time  for  c o e f f i c i e n t s com-  the  time p e r i o d  have  infer that  they  to  length  "modifiable  i t i s modified  relationship  near  i n f l a t e d because of  Time, of  manner i n w h i c h  one  c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the  artificially  period.  with  political  of  unit"  the  and  time the  substantially affect  the  109 size  of  the  correlation  coefficient.  for  example, have demonstrated  that  are  modified  raise  ferent  or  a g g r e g a t e d may  crop y i e l d s within  Robinson demonstrated on  the  "ecological  cross-sectional  the  way  the  and  geographic  zero  to  same p h e n o m e n a i n h i s The  - ; i i X  resulted analysis  Kendall, units  c o r r e l a t i o n of  them f r o m h e a r  fallacy.  these modifications my  the  Yule  0.990.  however, the  for  X i 0  c l a s s i c paper  important point  i n fewer cases  dif-  is  that  analysis.  modification  In  of  time  112 does not  reduce  The flicting  the  number o f  coefficients for  picture.  While  cate  a weak n e g a t i v e  lags  produces p o s i t i v e  are of  statistically  the  cases  the  units  elitist  r e l a t i o n s h i p , the coefficients.  s i g n i f i c a n t and  the  of  analysis.  group p r e s e n t  simultaneous  c a s e s b e c a u s e o f m i s s i n g d a t a may  siderably .  or  a  correlations  introduction None o f  the  reduction  of  have a f f e c t e d  of  coninditime  coefficients the them  number con-  - 58 -  TABLE Export  Instability  and P o l i t i c a l  Countries:  Export  None  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  2  year  years  Violence  Correlation  Time L a g  1  XIX  Instability  deviations  i n Personalist  Coefficients  Political 1961-1963  Violence 1961-1965  0.059 (N=13)  0.063 (N=13)  0.027 (N=13)  0.065 (N=13)  Mean  squared  Mean  deviations  -0.102 (N=13)  0.381 (N=13)  Mean  squared  -0.090 (N=13)  0.332 (N=13)  0.096 (N=13)  0.376 (N=13)  0.145 (N=13)  0.375 (N=13)  deviations  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  Mean  squared  deviations  - 59 -  TABLE XX E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e Countries:  Time L a g  Export  None  1 year  2 years  The  in Elitist  Correlation Coefficients  P o l i t i c a l Violence  Instability  1961-1963  1961-1965  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0.369 (N=13)  -0.017 (N=13)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  -0.402 (N=13)  -0.085 (N«13)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  0.586 (N=10)  0.145 (N=9)  Mean s q u a r e d  0.532  deviations  0.136  (N=10)  (N=9)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  0.156 (N=9)  0.228 (N=8)  Mean s q u a r e d  0.131  deviations  (N=9)  c o v a r i a t i o n between e x p o r t l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l  v i o l e n c e a l s o v a r i e s d e p e n d i n g upon t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c and  type o f p o l i t i c a l system.  coefficients are s t a t i s t i c a l l y  region  The t e n d e n c y w i t h i n t h e L a t i n  and A s i a n g r o u p s i s i n t h e n e g a t i v e  for  0.180  (N=8)  d i r e c t i o n b u t none o f t h e  significant.  The c o e f f i c i e n t s  t h e A f r i c a n group do n o t p o r t r a y an unambiguous p i c t u r e .  W h i l e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s computed w i t h t h e t h r e e y e a r measures a r e c l o s e t o z e r o , t h o s e computed w i t h t h e f i v e y e a r measures indicate a positive relationship.  (The T a b l e s o f c o r r e l a t i o n  c o e f f i c i e n t s c a n be f o u n d i n A p p e n d i x I.)  -  i60 -  TABLE XXI Export and  Losses  and P o l i t i c a l  "Non P o l y a r c h i c "  Time L a q  Export  Countries;  Instability  Polyarchic  Mean  None  Mean  year  Mean  years  deviations  deviations  "Non P o l y a r c h i c ' Mean  Mean  year  Mean  years  * p =  <  .05  deviations  deviations  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  ** P  Political 1961-1963  Violence 1961-1965  0.048 (N*14)  0.022 (N=14)  0.132 (N=14)  0.085 (N=14)  -0.291 (N=14)  -0.632* (N=14)  -0.262 (N=14)  -0.597* (N=14)  -0.330 (N=14)  -0.686** (N=14)  -0.416 CN»14J  -0.620* <N=14)  -0.207 (N=33)  -0.117 (N=32)  -0.233 (N=33)  -0.109 (N=32)  0.029 (N=28)  -0.071 (N=27)  0.046 (N=28)  -0.034 (N=27)  -0.148 (N=26)  -0.101 (N=26)  -0.218 (N=27)  -0.076 (N=26)  Countries  -  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  2  deviations  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  1  deviations  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  None  Losses  Coefficients  Countries  Mean s q u a r e d  2  i n Polyarchic  Correlation  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  1  Violence  deviations  = <  .01  - 61 -  TABLE XXII Export Losses and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P e r s o n a l i s t Countries?  Correlation Coefficients P o l i t i c a l Violence  Time Lag  Export Losses  None  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0.163 (N=13)  0.161  Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s  -0.059 (N=13)  0.145 (N=13)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  0.166 (N=13)  0.597* (N=13)  Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s  0.163 (N=13)  0.589* (N=13)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  0.115 (N=13)  0.348  Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s  0.134 (N=13)  0.481 (N=13)  1 year  2 years  * p=  <.05  1961-1963  1961-1965  (N=13)  (N=13)  -  The  62  -  pattern of c o v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l  systera g r o u p s i s s i m i l a r t o t h e p a t t e r n o b s e r v e d f o r instability.  The  export  tendency w i t h i n the p o l y a r c h i c group i s  c l e a r l y n e g a t i v e , w h i l e the tendency i n nonpolyarchic i s near zero.  The  time lagged  countries  c o r r e l a t i o n s between l o s s e s  and v i o l e n c e a r e p o s i t i v e f o r p e r s o n a l i s t c o u n t r i e s .  The  p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e , however, s i g n i f i c a n t s u b s t a n t i v e l y and  statistically  only f o r the l a r g e r time p e r i o d s .  The  cor-  r e l a t i o n s f o r t h e t h r e e y e a r measures a r e i n s i g n i f i c a n t .  The  t e n d e n c y w i t h i n t h e e l i t i s t group i s n e g a t i v e  (see A p p e n d i x  ID . While the e x t e n t of v a r i a t i o n i s l e s s than t h a t found with export i n s t a b i l i t y  and  export  l o s s e s as  v a r i a b l e s , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between e x p o r t  independent  instability  and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e does v a r y w i t h i n t h e  sub-samples.  W i t h i n t h e L a t i n and A s i a n s u b g r o u p s , t h e r e a r e no correlation coefficients.  impact  significant  There i s a d i s c e r n i b l e n e g a t i v e  t e n d e n c y i n t h e L a t i n c o u n t r i e s , b u t no d e f i n i t e t e n d e n c y i n the A s i a n c o u n t r i e s .  Among t h e A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s  there  a p p e a r s t o be, d e s p i t e the s m a l l number o f c a s e s , a p o s i t i v e tendency w i t h time l a g s  (see A p p e n d i x I I I ) .  - S3 TABLE Export  Instability  Polyarchic  Impact  Countries?  Time L a g  Export  None  Mean  1 year  Mean  Mean  Correlation  deviations 1957 1960 1965  Coefficients  Political 1951-1963  Violence 1961-1965  •0.114 •0.056 •0.096  0.203 0.103 -0.008  deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14)  -0.030 -0.004 -0.040  0.188 0.123 0.070  (N=13) (N=13) (N=14)  -0.471 -0 .447 -0.393  -0.235 -0.337 -0.419  deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14)  -0 .381 -0.362 -0.317  -0.380 -0.448 -0.500  (N=13) (N=13) (N=14)  -0.507 -0.515 -0.442  -0.152 -0.251 •0.360  deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14)  -0.480 -0.481 -0.418  -0.315 -0.387 -0.450  deviations 1957 1960 1965  Mean s q u a r e d  Impact  Violence i n  (N=13) (N=13) (N=14)  deviations 1957 1960 1965  Mean s q u a r e d  2 years  and P o l i t i c a l  Instability  Mean s q u a r e d  XXIII  -  The ate  relationship within  i n s i z e and n e g a t i v e  lagged  64 -  the polyarchic  i n direction  c o r r e l a t i o n s computed w i t h  a l s o moderate  i n size within  positive  i n sign.  measures  shov; a l a c k  (Table  the five  group  i s moder-  XXIII).  The  time  year measures a r e  the personalist countries but  However, t h o s e  computed w i t h  of covariation  (Table  the three  year  XXIV) .  TABLE XXIV Export  Instability  Personalist  Impact  Countries  Time L a g  Export  None  Mean  and P o l i t i c a l  Correlation Coefficients  Instability  Impact  deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) 1  year  Mean  deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) 2 years  violence i n  Political 1961-1963  Violence 1961-1965  0.138 -0.094 0.005  0.206 0.311 0.165  0.072 -0.100 -0.001  0.149 0.145 0.134  -0.054 -0.134 -0.101  0.350 0.548* 0.290  -0.061 -0.132 -0.092  0.326 0.548* 0.289  Mean  deviations 1957 (N=13) I 9 6 0 (N=12) 1965 (N=13)  0.116 0.021 0.034  0.353 0.442 0.280  Mean  squared deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13)  0.150 0.079 0.100  0.365 0.552* 0.311  - 65 The for  i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s o f the c o r r e l a t i o n  t h e two  t i m e p e r i o d s may  p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e measure.  coefficients  be the r e s u l t o f e r r o r i n t h e They a l s o s u g g e s t  the i n f l u e n c e  113 of  "extraneous  historical"  factors.  Unfortunately these  c o m p l e x i t i e s cannot be e x p l o r e d w i t h t h e p r e s e n t d a t a . The  p r o b a b i l i t y o f measurement e r r o r i s more a c u t e  w i t h i n s p e c i f i c time p e r i o d s . the export i n s t a b i l i t y lity  and  p o i n t e d o u t above,  l o s s e s from e x p o r t  instabi-  impact measures a r e most v u l n e r a b l e t o d i s t o r t i o n  error. and  impact  As i t was  and  T h i s i s because t h e a b s o l u t e v a l u e s o f i m p o r t s ,  exports  g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t a r e used i n the c a l c u l a t i o n .  f e r e n t e s t i m a t e s o f GNP  were used  to p a r t i a l l y  Dif-  ecounteract  114  t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y or e r r o r . efficients stability  a r e based impact.  upon t h e  T h i s may  the e s t i m a t e s o r e r r o r . s i m i l a r i n s i z e and  I n T a b l e XXIV t h e l a r g e r  The  co-  " I 9 6 0 " estimate of export i n -  r e f l e c t the t e m p o r a l  differences i n  o t h e r c o e f f i c i e n t s , however, a r e  s u p p o r t the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e r e i s a  p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h i n t h e p e r s o n a l i s t group.  Within  the  elitist  group t h e o p p o s i t e i s the case and measurement e r r o r  appears  more s i g n i f i c a n t than temporal  differences.  Tfhile a l l  t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s computed w i t h the " 1 9 6 0 " e s t i m a t e a r e  statis-  t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t and v e r y l a r g e , t h o s e computed w i t h " 1 9 5 7 " and Table X X V ) .  the  "1965" estimates i n d i c a t e a zero r e l a t i o n s h i p Combining t h e " c l o s e d " p o l i t i c a l  non p o l y a rIcIhIi)c.c a t e g o r y a l s o produces a z e r o (Appendix  (see  systems i n t o relationship  the  - 66 TABLE XXV Export I n s t a b i l i t y  Impact and P o l i t i c a l  E l i t i s t Countries:  Correlation Coefficients  Time L a g  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  None  Mean  Impact  deviations 1957 (N=10) 1960 (N= 8) 1965=(N=13)  2 years  * p =  Political 1961-1963  Violence 1961-1965  •0.202 0.200 •0.420  •0.221 0.765* -0.121  -0.238 0.251 -0.448  -0.261 0.800** -0.147  0.436 327 ,449  0.090 0.823** 0.060  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N= 9) 1960 (N= 8) 1965 (N=10)  0.541 0.435 0.535  0.067 0.948** 0.089  Mean d e v i a t i o n 1957 (N= 8) 1960 (N= 7) 1965 (N= 9)  0.047 0.279 0.065  -0.019 0.784* 0.024  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N= 8) 1960 (N= 7) 1965 (N= 9)  0.092 0.482 0.088  0.039 0.801* 0.075  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=10) 1960 (N= 8) 1965 (N=13) 1 ysar  Violence i n  Mean deviations 1957 1960 1965  < .05  (N= 9) (N= 8) (N=10)  ** p = < .01  - 67 The r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the l o s s e s from e x p o r t bility  impact and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e , w i t h i n t h e  r e g i o n s and p o l i t i c a l above w i t h  systems, f o l l o w t h e p a t t e r n  the o t h e r i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s .  insta-  socio-economic observed  There i s no  n i f i c a n t c o v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n t h e L a t i n and A s i a n g r o u p s .  sigThe  tendency i n t h e l a t t e r i s weak and n e g a t i v e .  Using the f i v e  y e a r measures, t h e r e a r e s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e  correlation  c o e f f i c i e n t s w i t h i n t h e A f r i c a n group. These c o e f f i c i e n t s , however, t e n d t o i n c r e a s e i n s i z e w i t h a r e d u c t i o n i n the number o f c a s e s . t h a t the l o s s o f cases in  c a s e s may  I t cannot be assumed  i s random, and d i f f e r e n t i a l  threaten i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y .  analogous t o s e l f  reduction  The problem i s  s e l e c t i o n i n some e x p e r i m e n t a l  and  survey  research. G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , t h e g r e a t e r t h e amount o f c o o p e r a t i o n i n v o l v e d , t h e g r e a t e r t h e amount of d i s r u p t i o n o f r o u t i n e and t h e h i g h e r our r e f u s a l r o l e , t h e more o p p o r t u n i t y t h e r e i s for a selection s p e c i f i c i t y e f f e c t . The c o e f f i c i e n t s a l s o t e n d t o i n c r e a s e i n s i z e w i t h in  increases  t h e l e n g t h o f t h e time l a g . T h i s tendency i s common t o a  number o f t h e t a b l e s a l r e a d y p r e s e n t e d .  Campbell and  Stanley  s t a t e t h a t "as t h e time i n t e r v a l between X and e f f e c t i n c r e a s e s , t h e p l a u s i b i l i t y o f e f f e c t s from e x t r a n e o u s  historical  1 1 6  events  also increases."  The " m o r t a l i t y r a t e " and  "history"  impinge upon t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e r e s u l t s f o r t h e A s i a n , A f r i c a n and e l i t i s t groups i n p a r t i c u l a r . number o f c a s e s d e c r e a s e s  with  Given  that the  l o n g e r time l a g s , t h e p o s i t i v e  c o r r e l a t i o n s between l o s s e s from e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y  impact  - 68 -  TABLE XXVI Impact of Losses from Export I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n A f r i c a n Countries; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s  impact Losses  1  9  6  Mean deviations  None  1965  1 year  1965 Mean s q u a r e d  -0.144  0.080  -0.179  0.107  -0.213  0,403  -0.179  0.456  -0.124  0.719  -0.105  0.713  (N= 8)  Mean deviations  2 years  l  (N= 8)  Mean squared deviations 1965  a  (N=12)  Mean deviations 1965  C  (N=12)  Mean squared deviations 1965  £ l & |  (N= 7)  deviations 1965 (N= 7)  and p o l i t i c a l violence should be accepted only with extreme caution. efficients  (See Appendix IV f o r the tables of c o r r e l a t i o n cof o r the other  regions.)  In s p e c i f y i n g the zero r e l a t i o n s h i p between losses from export: i n s t a b i l i t y  impact and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e , the  type of p o l i t i c a l system i s more relevant than socio-economic region.  The negative  i s the strongest.  c o v a r i a t i o n within the polyarchic sample  Again, there i s a lack of c o v a r i a t i o n  within the nonpolyarchic  group and the type of "closed" p o l i -  t i c a l system i s important (Tables XXVII and XXVIII).  The  -  69 -  TABLE Impact  of Losses  Violence  from  Exoort  i n Polyarchic  Tmr^-r r „ I m p a c t .,,osses  None  Mean  n  Instability  Countries;  „ Time L a g T  XXVII  Mean  M  deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14)  deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14) 2 years  Mean  Political  Correlation  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14) 1 year  and  deviations 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14)  Coefficients  Political Violence 1961-1963 1961-1965  -0.160 -0.107 -0.128  0.225 0.134 0.018  -0.001 0.033 -0.005  0.175 0.110 0.075  -0.536* -0.501 -0.421  -0.440 -0.508 -0.558*  -0.425 -0.401 -0.344  -0.498 -0.537* -0.572*  -0.555* -0.518 -0.434  -0.407 -0.490 -0.544*  -0.575* -0.551* -0.480  -0.498 -0.544* -0.582*  -  70 -  TABLE Impact c f Losses Violence  XXVIII  from Export  i n "isjon P o l y a r c h i c "  Instability  and P o l i t i c a l  Countries:  Correlation  Coefficients  ^ ^ j f  impact L o s s e s  ^7one  Mean  Mean  1 year  Mean  Mean  2 years  Mean  deviations 1957 1960 1965 squared  1  "Ultltes  (N=30) (M=23) (H=33)  -0.067 -0.303 -0.163  -0.026 -0.077 -0.086  deviations 1957 (N=30) 1960 (N=23) 1965 (N=33)  -0.074 -0.173 -0.173  -0.145 -0.232 -0.096  (N=27) (N=22) (N=28)  -0.025 -0.001 -0,025  -0.070 0.277 -0.127  deviations 1957 (N=27) 1960 (N=22) 1965 (N=28)  -0.008 0.015 -0.009  0.294 0.278 -0.084  (N=26) (N=22) (N=27)  -0.231 -0.067 -0.235  0.191 0.051 -0.097  deviations 1957 (N-26) 1960 (N=22) 1965 (N=27)  -0.261 -0.029 -0.263  0.142 0.032 -0.078  deviations 1957 1960 1965 squared  deviations 1957 1960 1965  Mean s q u a r e d  tendency weak.  e x h i b i t e d i n the e l i t i s t  Within  the personalist  puted  with  Those  computed w i t h  cate  the f i v e  IV and T a b l e  year  in  r f Losses  Personalist  from  the c o e f f i c i e n t s  a r e non  Countries;  Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 1960 1965  lags (see  Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 1960 1965  (N=13) (N=12) (N=13)  (N=13) (N=12) (N=13)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 1960 1965  and P o l i t i c a l  (N=13) (N=12) (N=13)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) , 1965 (N=13)  violence  Coefficients  Political 1961-1963  Losses  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (M=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13)  * p = < .05  time  indi-  XXIX  Correlation  None  2 years  with  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  Impact  year  significant.  XXIX).  Time L a g  1  com-  m e a s u r e s d o , however.,  relationship  TABLE Impact  c o u n t r i e s i s n e g a t i v e and  group,  t h e t h r e e y e a r measures  a moderate p o s i t i v e  Appendix  71 -  Violence 1961-1965  •0.069 -0 .263 -0.190  0.328 0.311 0.251  -0.017 -0.183 -0 .089  0.238 0.145 0.206  0.204 0.165 0.188  0.581* 0 .548* 0.528  0.178 0.139 0.164  0.578* 0.548 0.547*  0.030 0.003 -0.004 0.068 0.047 0.043  0.385 0.442 0.335 0.489 0.552* 0.459  - 72  -  CONCLUSION  In of  summary  political  there  violence  i s no  and  export  instability  impact  i n underdeveloped  in  total  the  within  and  types  ings.  and  political  The  largest  The  strongest  all  and  opposite are  in  from  No  sign  of  zero  losses,  instability  relationships  opposite  relationships  signs  vary  in  d i f f e r e n t socio-economic  most  consistent  and  export  export  regions  and  strength  are  and  systems.  the  There  losses  political  countries,  are  They  between e x p o r t  losses  "closed"  in  group-  export  impact.  political  correlations  a p a r t i c u l a r group of  instability,  equivalent  "closed"  instability  correlations  instability  covariations  e x i s t i n the  export  export  export  of  amount  systems.  and  moderate p o s i t i v e  impact  The  the  v a r i a t i o n i s found between p o l i t i c a l  losses  negative.  The  mask c o r r e l a t i o n s  between p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e losses  from  countries.  direction within  of  between  instability,  losses  s p e c i f i e d subsamples.  strength and  export  impact  sample do  covariation  and  violence personalist  states. The ist  relationships  subsamples  polyarchic  and  can  be  within  generalized.  personalist  contained  i n the  selection  bias.  the  samples  Most of  countries  so  These c o r r e l a t i o n s  polyarchic  there  in  the  is little  c a n n o t be  and  the  personal-  underdeveloped  whole p o p u l a t i o n probability  considered  causal  of  rela-  117 tionships.  Although,  for  correlation  between e x p o r t  personalist  countries  and  example,  losses the  and  temporal  there  is a  positive  p o l i t i c a l violence o r d e r has  been  in  esta-  are  - 73 blished the  with  time  two v a r i a b l e s  causal  lagged may  relationships  variables.  x  In a simple  bivariate  spurious  implications  of export  between  export  of  additional  the c o r r e l a t i o n  i t i s otherwise  demon-  Losses  —>  intervening  between  As f o r m u l a t e d  n o t measured  export  — ^  Political  a n d was  assumed  l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l  of export  relationship  above, the r e l a t i o n s h i p  violencei s ;  Economic Disturbance  l o c u s and c o n t r o l likely  discussion of the  are obviously r e l e v a n t to the  l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l  E c o n o m i c d i s t u r b a n c e was  most  analysis  until  instability  of spuriousness.  the  The e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f  of the e a r l i e r  problem  Export  between  ^  x  The "nature"  be s p u r i o u s .  the association  requires the introduction  s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d strated.  correlations,  Violence  t o be  violence.  If  losses i s " i n t e r n a l , " the  would be; Economic  Disturbance  \ \ i  Export  Whether only  nal."  Political  economic d i s t u r b a n c e s  be d e c i d e d w i t h  investigated tical  Losses  further  and found  very  are i n t e r v e n i n g o r c a u s a l can analysis.  little  influence  i s the necessary  of "international"  first  This  analysis  covariation  v i o l e n c e a n d a number o f v a r i a b l e s This  Violence  between  designated  has poli-  as " e x t e r -  step i n assessing the  factors  on domestic  politics.  FOOTNOTES  F r e d W. R i g g s , "The T h e o r y o f D e v e l o p i n g P o l i t i e s , " World P o l i t i c s , v o l . 16, n o . 1 ( O c t o b e r 1 9 6 3 ) , p . 1 7 1 . With reference to L a t i n America, Osvaldo Sunkel s t a t e s t h a t . . . i f one examines t h e w r i t i n g s o f e c o n o m i s t s , s o c i o l o g i s t s and p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s i n L a t i n A m e r i c a , e x t e r n a l dependence as a s u b j e c t i s r e m a r k a b l y a b s e n t . I t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t s o c i o l o g y , e c o n o m i c s , and p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e i n t h e post-war p e r i o d have n o t been c o n c e r n e d with this question. O s v a l d o S u n k e l , " N a t i o n a l Development P o l i c y and E x t e r n a l Dependence i n L a t i n A m e r i c a , " The J o u r n a l o f Development S t u d i e s , v o l . 6, n o . 1 ( O c t o b e r 1 9 6 9 ) , p p . 2 3 - 2 4 . 2 J a m e s N. R o s e n a u , " P r e - t h e o r i e s a n d T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " A p p r o a c h e s t o C o m p a r a t i v e a n d I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , e d . R. B a r r y F a r r e l l , E v a n s t o n , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, pp. 27-92; " I n t r o d u c t i o n : P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e i n a S h r i n k i n g W o r l d , " Linkage P o l i t i c s : E s s a y s on t h e C o n v e r g e n c e o f N a t i o n a l and I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y s t e m s , e d . J a m e s N. R o s e n a u , New Y o r k , T h e F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 , p p . 1-17; " T o w a r d t h e S t u d y o f N a t i o n a l - I n t e r n a t i o n a l L i n k a g e s , " L i n k a g e P o l i t i c s , p p . 44-6 3; "The P o l i t i c s o f N a t i o n a l A d a p t i o n , " a p a p e r p r e p a r e d f o r R o u n d T a b l e o n T h e Comp a r a t i v e Study of F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t the 65th Annual Meeting o f t h e A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , New Y o r k , September 3, 1969; a n d "The A d a p t i o n o f N a t i o n a l S o c i e t i e s : A Theory of P o l i t i c a l B e h a v i o r a n d i t s T r a n s f o r m a t i o n , " u n p u b l i s h e d manus c r i p t , O c t o b e r , 1969. 3 K a r l W. D e u t s c h , " E x t e r n a l I n f l u e n c e s o n t h e I n t e r n a l B e h a v i o r of S t a t e s , " Approaches t o C o m p a r a t i v e and I n t e r n a t i o n a l Politics, e d . R. B a r r y F a r r e l l , p p . 5-26. ^ S t a n l e y H. H o f f m a n n , " I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s : The Long Road t o T h e o r y , " W o r l d P o l i t i c s , v o l . 11, n o . 3 ( A p r i l 1 9 5 9 ) , p p . 3 4 7 . See a l s o t h e same a u t h o r s , C o n t e m p o r a r y T h e o r y i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l Relations, Englewood C l i f f s , N . J . , P r e n t i c e - H a l l I n c . , 1960, pp. 1-12. G a b r i e l Almond has r e v i s e d h i s s t r u c t u r a l f u n c t i o n a l a p p r o a c h to i n c l u d e " e x t e r n a l " f a c t o r s . This r e v i s i o n i s not f u l l y i n t e g r a t e d i n t o h i s approach, however. See G a b r i e l Almond and G. B i n g h a m P o w e l l , J r . , C o m p a r a t i v e P o l i t i c s : A Developmental A p p r o a c h , New Y o r k , L i t t l e B r o w n & Company, 1966. F o r examples o f m o r e o r l e s s s y s t e m a t i c e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s , s e e Manus M i d l a r s k y a n d Raymond T a n t e r , " T o w a r d a T h e o r y o f P o l i t i c a l I n s t a b i l i t y i n L a t i n A m e r i c a , " J o u r n a l o f P e a c e R e s e a r c h , v o l . 4, n o . 3 ( 1 9 6 7 ) , p p . 2 0 9 - 2 2 7 ; C h a r l e s W o l f , J r . , "The P o l i t i c a l E f f e c t s o f M i l i t a r y P r o g r a m s : Some I n d i c a t i o n s f r o m L a t i n A m e r i c a , " O r b i s , v o l . 8,  no. 4 (Winter, 1965), pp. 871-893; C. Wolf, J r . , U n i t e d S t a t e s P o l i c y and the T h i r d World: Problems and A n a l y s i s , L i t t l e Brown & Company, B o s t o n , 1967, pp. 90-162? M e r l e K l i n g , "Taxes on the ' E x t e r n a l ' S e c t o r : An Index o f P o l i t i c a l B e h a v i o r i n L a t i n A m e r i c a ? " Midwest J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , v o l . 3, no. 2 (May 1959), pp. 127-150; E g i l Fossum, " F a c t o r s I n f l u e n c i n g the O c c u r r e n c e o f M i l i t a r y Coup d ' E t a t i n L a t i n A m e r i c a , " J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h , v o l . 4, no. 3 (1967), pp. 228-257; and'Bruce M. R u s s e t t , " I n d i c a t o r s f o r America's l i n k a g e s w i t h the Changing World E n v i r o n m e n t , " a paper d e l i v e r e d a t the annual m e e t i n g o f the American P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , New York, September 2-6, 1969. Samuel P. H u n t i n g t o n , " P a t t e r n s o f V i o l e n c e i n World P o l i t i c s , " Changing P a t t e r n s o f M i l i t a r y P o l i t i c s , ed. Samuel P. H u n t i n g t o n , New York, The F r e e P r e s s of Glencoe, 19 6 2 , pp. 45-46. 7 Almond and P o w e l l , Comparative P o l i t i c s ,  p.  196.  In order to s i m p l i f y h i s proposed s i m u l a t i o n of l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s , Shubick assumes the demand i s exogenous. See M a r t i n S h u b i c k , " S i m u l a t i o n o f Socio-Economic Systems," G e n e r a l Systems Yearbook, v o l . 12 (1967), pp. 165-166. g Vernon Lee F l u h a r t y , Dance o f the M i l l i o n s : M i l i t a r y Rule and t h e S o c i a l R e v o l u t i o n i n Colombia, 1930-1956, P i t t s b u r g h , U n i v e r s i t y o f P i t t s b u r g h P r e s s , 1957, p. 15. T h e Trade and Development Board o f the U n i t e d N a t i o n s Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) a t the N i n t h S e s s i o n , August 26 - September 23, 1969 i n Geneva. C i t e d i n U n i t e d N a t i o n s Monthly C h r o n i c l e , U n i t e d N a t i o n s O f f i c e o f P u b l i c I n f o r m a t i o n , v o l . 6, no. 9 (October 1969), p. 48. See a l s o C h a r l e s K i n d l e b e r g e r , F o r e i g n Trade and the N a t i o n a l Economy, New Haven and London, Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1963, pp. 218-221. l 0  Kwame Nkrumah, Neo C o l o n i a l i s m : The L a s t Stage o f I m p e r i a l i s m , London, Heinemann E d u c a t i o n a l Books, 1969, p. 24f7 A l s o see Jack Woddis, I n t r o d u c t i o n t o N e o - C o l o n i a l i s m : The New Imperialism In A s i a , A f r i c a and L a t i n America, New York, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Publ i s h e r s , 1969; and P i e r r e J a l e e , The P i l l a g e o f the T h i r d World, New Y o r k , Monthly Review P r e s s , 1968. Xi  P e t e r Worsley, The 1967, pp. 290-292.  T h i r d World, London, W e i d e n f e l d  and  Nicholson,  13 Joseph D. Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y ; The E x p e r i e n c e a f t e r World War I I , New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l Book Company, 1962, p. 4. 14 A v e r y b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e s e e v e n t s can be found i n Dennis A u s t i n , P o l i t i c s i n Ghana, 1946-1960, London, O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966. 15 Barend A. D e V r i e s , The E x p o r t E x p e r i e n c e o f D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s , W o r l d Bank S t a f f O c c a s i o n a l P a p e r s , Number T h r e e , 1967. ( D i s t r i b u t e d by t h e Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . ) 16 The c o m p l e x i t y o f the problem i s amply demonstrated i n F. Helmut Weymar, The Dynamics o f the World Cocao Market, Cambridge Mass., The M.I.T. P r e s s , 1968, Appendix 2 j Tony K i l l f c k , " E x t e r n a l T r a d e , " The Economy o f Ghana, eds. and r e s e a r c h d i r e c t o r s , W a l l y Birmingham, I . N e u s t a d t , and E.N. Omabol, London, George A l l e n and Unwin L t d . , 1966. (A Study o f Contemporary Ghana, Volume I.)  17 The s u p p o s i t i o n t h a t e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i s "more e x t e r n a l " than " i n t e r n a l " i s of course very important i n a c a u s a l a n a l y s i s . If e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y were the r e s u l t o f i n t e r n a l o r l o c a l economic d i s t u r b a n c e , the r e l a t i o n s h i p between e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e c o u l d be s p u r i o u s . Compare t h e f o l l o w i n g diagram w i t h F i g u r e 1. Economic D i s t u r b a n c e Export I n s t a b i l i t y  P o l i t i c a l Violence  My purpose a t t h i s p o i n t , however, i s t o see i f t h e r e i s c o v a r i a t i o n between export, i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e .  19 E x t e n d i n g Hoffman's analogy t o t h e C o p e r n i c a n r e v o l u t i o n , more s y s t e m a t i c o b s e r v a t i o n s o f the p l a n e t s a r e needed. I f t h e P t o l e m a i c systems c o u l d have a c c u r a t e l y accounted f o r such p l a n e t a r y phenomena as " r e t r o g r a d e motion," the r e v o l u t i o n would not have been n e c e s s a r y . C o p e r n i c u s wrote De R e v o l u t i o n i b u s i n an attempt t o p r o v i d e a more a c c u r a t e and p a r s i m o n i o u s t h e o r y . C o p e r n i c u s d i d n o t a t t a c k the two-sphere u n i v e r s e , though h i s work u l t i m a t e l y overthrew i t and he d i d  n o t abandon t h e use o f e p i c y c l e s and e c c e n t r i c s , though t h e s e t o o were abandoned by h i s s u c c e s s o r s . What C o p e r n i c u s d i d a t t a c k and what s t a r t e d t h e r e v o l u t i o n i n astronomy was c e r t a i n o f t h e a p p a r e n t l y t r i v i a l mathematical d e t a i l s l i k e equants, embodied i n t h e complex m a t h e m a t i c a l systems o f Ptolemy and h i s s u c c e s s o r s . Thomas S. Kuhn, The C o p e r n i c a n R e v o l u t i o n ; P l a n e t a r y Astronomy i n t h e Development o f Western Thought, New Y o r k V i n t a g e Books, 1959, p. 73. y  20 E r x c R. W o l f , P e a s a n t s , Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., P r e n t i c e - H a l l I n c . , 1966, pp. 44-45; Robert L. H e i l b r o n e r , The G r e a t A s c e n t * The S t r u g g l e f o r Economic Development i n our Time, New Y o r k , H a r p e r and Row, 1963, pp. 102-105; and M a u r i c e Dobb, Economic Growth and U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s , New York, I n t e r n a t i o n a l P u b l i s h e r s , 1963, pp. 22-23. 21  A d r i a n Moyes and T e r e s a H a y t e r , World I I I : A Handbook on D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s , O x f o r d , Pergamon P r e s s , 1964, pp. 60-64. 22 Benjamin H i g g i n s , Economic Development, New York, W.W. N o r t o n 1968, ( r e v i s e d e d i t i o n ) , p . 550. 23 James C. Ingram, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic Problems, New Y o r k , John W i l e y & Sons, 1966, pp. 83-84. ^ J a g d i s h Bhagwati, The Economies o f Underdeveloped C o u n t r i e s , New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l Book Company, 1966, p. 78. 2  25 P e t e r B. Kenen, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economics, Englewood N.J., P r e n t i c e H a l l , 1964, p . 102.  Cliffs,  A l l a n K. C a i r n c r o s s , F a c t o r s i n Economic Development, London, A l l e n and Unwin, 1962, p. 213; see a l s o Seymour S, Goodman, "Problems o f t h e E x t e r n a l S e c t o r o f D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s , " The D e v e l o p i n g Economies, v o l , 7, no. 3 (September 1969), pp. 351-366 and K i n d e l b e r g e r , F o r e i g n Trade and the N a t i o n a l Economy pp. 212-226. 27  Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , pp. 1 6 . 2ft  In t h i s r e - a n a l y s i s a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s were t r a n s f o r m e d u s i n g l o g , t o b r i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n s c l o s e r t o normal and " p u l l i n " extreme v a l u e s . 0  Campbell and F i s k e s t a t e t h a t :  R e l i a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y c a n be s e e n as r e g i o n s on a continuum. R e l i a b i l i t y i s the agreement between two e f f o r t s t o m e a s u r e t h e same t r a i t t h r o u g h m a x i m a l l y s i m i l a r methods. Validity i s represented i n t h e a g r e e m e n t b e t w e e n two a t t e m p t s t o m e a s u r e t h e same t r a i t t h r o u g h m a x i m a l l y d i f f e r e n t m e t h o d s . D o n a l d T. C a m p b e l l a n d D o n a l d W. F i s k e , " C o n v e r g e n t and D i s c r i m i n a n t V a l i d a t i o n by t h e M u l t i t r a i t and M u l t i m e t h o d M a t r i x , " P s y c h o l o g i c a l B u l l e t i n , v o l . 56, n o . 2 ( M a r c h 1 9 5 9 ) , p . 83. S e e J a c k Sawyer, "Dimensions o f N a t i o n s ; S i z e , W e a l t h and P o l i t i c s , " A m e r i c a n J o u r n a l o f S o c i o l o g y , v o l . 73, n o . 2 ( J u l y 1 9 6 7 ) , p p . 169-172 a n d B r u c e M. R u s s e t t , e t a l . , W o r l d H a n d b o o k o f P o l i t i c a l a n d S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , New H a v e n , Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 196 4, p . 277 f o r c o r r e l a t e s o f GNP p e r c a p i t a f o r 1955 and 1957, r e s p e c t i v e l y . The same r e l a t i o n s h i p s h a v e b e e n f o u n d within nations. S e e R o b e r t E . R o b e r t s a n d G e o r g e W. M c B e e , " M o d e r n i z a t i o n and E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t i n M e x i c o : A Factor A n a l y t i c A p p r o a c h , " Economic Development and C u l t u r a l Change, v o l . 16, n o . 4 ( J u l y 1 9 6 9 ) , p p . 6 0 3 - 6 1 2 ; C h r i s t e n I . J o h a s s e n a n d S h e r w o o d H. P e r e s , I n t e r r e l a t i o n s o f D i m e n s i o n s o f C o m m u n i t y S y s t e m s , C o l u m b u s , O h i o , O h i o S t a t e " U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1960; and N a t h a n i e l B. G u y o l , " E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n a n d E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t , E s s a y s on G e o g r a p h y and E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t , e d . N o r t o n G i n s b u r g , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1962, p p . 6 5 - 7 7 . 3 0  31 . . . o n e may a c c e p t t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e p r o p o r t i o n a s a rough i n d i c a t o r o f the dependence o f a c o u n t r y ' s o v e r a l l p e r f o r m a n c e upon m a t e r i a l f l o w s t o and f r o m t h e r e s t o f the world. . . Simon K u z n e t s , Modern Economic Growth: R a t e S t r u c t u r e and S p r e a d , New H a v e n , Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, p . 302. Also s e e K a r l D e u t s c h , "Toward an I n v e n t o r y o f B a s i c T r e n d s and P a t t e r n s i n C o m p a r a t i v e and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 54, n o . 1 ( M a r c h 1 9 6 0 ) , Appendix 1. 32 Coppock a l s o u s e d o t h e r measures o f commodity c o n c e n t r a t i o n and p r e s e n t e d t h e r e l e v a n t d a t a . See C o p p o c k , I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , A p p e n d i x T a b l e A-2. 33 F u r t h e r d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e i n d e x and c o m p u t a t i o n p r o c e d u r e c a n be f o u n d i n A l b e r t 0. H i r s c h m a n , N a t i o n a l P o w e r a n d t h e S t r u c t u r e o f F o r e i g n T r a d e , B e r k e l e y and Los A n g e l e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1945. Norton G i n s b e r g , A t l a s of Economic-Development, U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1959, p p . 1 0 6 - 1 0 7 .  Chicago,  Coppock*s  " l o g v a r i a n c e " measure  X  i s computed u s i n g t h e  + 1  £(log — V  l  0  ^  =  formula:  m) X  z  t N  X  <t  N m  =  the value  = =  the the of  of  proceeds  i n year  t  number o f y e a r s m i n u s 1 a r i t h m e t i c mean o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s X  t  and  X^  V^ g=  the  Export  instability  Q  total  +  between  the  logs  1, e t c .  logarithmic variance of index  =  antilog  the l/v  series  Yg Q  The " p e r c e n t a g e d e v i a t i o n s " m e t h o d i s t o f i t a c u r v e t o t h e t i m e s e r i e s and e x p r e s s t h e a n n u a l d e v i a t i o n s f r o m t h i s c u r v e as p e r c e n t a g e s o f t h e a n n u a l t r e n d v a l u e s . Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c I n s t a b i l i t y , p p . 20-25.  36 The U n i t e d N a t i o n s p r o c e d u r e i s v e r y s i m i l a r t o c o m p u t i n g annual percentage changes i n e x p o r t proceeds. The d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t an i n c r e a s e i s n o t c a l c u l a t e d as a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r b u t as a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p e a k v a l u e . See I b i d , and I n s t a b i l i t y i n E x p o r t M a r k e t s o f U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s , New Y o r k , U n i t e d N a t i o n s S e c r e t a r i a t , 1952.  37 Op.  cit.,  p.  25.  38 K a r l D e u t s c h and A l e x a n d e r E c k s t e i n , " N a t i o n a l I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and t h e D e c l i n i n g Share o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic S e c t o r , 1890-1959," W o r l d P o l i t i c s , v o l . 13, No. 1 ( J a n u a r y  1961), p p . 267-299. F a i l u r e t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e t w e e n s t a t i s t i c a l and s u b s t a n t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e h a s b e e n one s o u r c e o f t h e d e b a t e o v e r t h e u s e a n d abuse o f t e s t s o f s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e . See D a v i d G o l d , " S t a t i s t i c a l T e s t s and S u b s t a n t i v e S i g n i f i c a n c e , " The A m e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i s t , v o l . 4, n o . 1 ( F e b r u a r y 1969), p p . 42-46.  40 M a c b e a n , r p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t , p p .  31 h e r i ~ a F e ~ I c i n e e c o n o m i s t s who do n o t a c c e p t t h e o r t h o doxy T h l i r d i s s e n t i s n o t as i m p o r t a n t b e c a u s e t h e y l a c k t h e empirical e v i d e n c e . See, f o r example, P a u l Baran, T h e P o l _ i ^ i c a l Economy o f G r o w t h , New Y o r k , M o n t h l y R e v i e w P r e s s , 1957, pp. J f  8  6  T  230-234.  ^Coppock, 'International Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , pp. 107-108; Macbean, Export I n s t a b i l i t y and Economic Development, pp. 62-66. 42 Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , pp. 114-122. 43  Macbean, Export I n s t a b i l i t y , p p . 62-68, 99-102. ^ I b i d . , p „ 63 . 45 Macbean analyzed the e f f e c t s of export i n s t a b i l i t y on c a p i t a l goods imported, investment, consumer goods imported, and rates of i n f l a t i o n . Only i n the l a s t two v a r i a b l e s was there any s i g n i f i c a n t c o v a r i a t i o n . I b i d . , pp. 69-85. ^ I b i d . , p.  341.  J o h n A. Pincus, "Commodity Agreements: Bonanza or I l l u s i o n ? " Reshaping the World Economy: Rich and Poor Countries, ed. John A. Pincus, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., P r e n t i c e - H a l l Inc., 1968, p. 143. 47  48 Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , pp.  4-5.  9  6  " Walt W. Rostow, B r i t i s h Economy of the Nineteenth Century, Oxford, At the Clarendon Press, 1948, Chapter 5. ^°For example, see Ted Robert Gurr, "Psychological Factors i n C i v i l V i o l e n c e , " World P o l i t i c s , v o l . 20, no. 2 (January 1968), p. 260 and Ted Robert Gurr, Why Men Rebel, Princeton, N.J., Princeton U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1970, p. 62. 51  0p.  c i t . , p. 123.  52 T.S. Ashton, Economic Fluctuations i n England 1700-1800, Oxford, At the Clarendon Press, 1959, pp. 146, 147, 149, 154-155, and 160. 53 I b i d . , p. 155. Nevertheless, the evidence of s o c i a l unrest and d i s t r e s s i s s u f f i c i e n t to j u s t i f y our regarding the period from 1765 to 1769 as one of depression. T e d Gurr, "A Causal Model of C i v i l S t r i f e : A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American P o l i t i c a l Science Review, v o l . 62, no. 4 (December 1968), pp. l T l l - 1 1 1 2 , 1117. 5 4  55 I v o K. F e i e r a b e n d a n d R o s a l i n d L . F e i e r a b e n d , "Aggressive B e h a v i o r s W i t h i n P o l i t i c s , 1948-1962: A C r o s s - N a t i o n a l Study," J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , v o l . 10, n o . 3, p p . 2 6 2 - 2 6 9 . A l s o s e e I v o K. F e i e r a b e n d a n d R o s a l i n d L . F e i e r a b e n d , "Social Change and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e : Cross-National Patterns," Violence i n America: H i s t o r i c a l and C o m p a r a t i v e P e r s p e c t i v e s , e d s . Hugh D a v i s G r a h a m and T e d R o b e r t G u r r (The c o m p l e t e o f f i c i a l r e p o r t t o t h e N a t i o n a l C o m m i s s i o n o n t h e C a u s e s and P r e v e n t i o n of V i o l e n c e , June 1969). New Y o r k , S i g n e t B o o k s , 1969, p p . 6 0 6 - 6 6 8 . 56 Ted Gurr, w i t h the a s s i s t a n c e of C h a r l e s Ruttenberg, The Conditions of C i v i l Violence: F i r s t Tests of a Causal Model, P r i n c e t o n , N.J. , Center o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y , A p r i l 1967 ( R e s e a r c h M o n o g r a p h Number 2 8 ) , p p . 66-67. 57 Raymond T a n t e r a n d Manus M i d l a r s k y , "A J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , v o l . 11, 1967), pp. 264-280. ~  Theory of Revolution," no. 3 (September  58 S e y m o u r M a r t i n L i p s e t , A g r a r i a n S o c i a l i s m , New York, D o u b l e d a y B o o k s , 1963, p p . 46, 4 4 - 4 6 , 90. See a l s o h i s r e f e r e n c e s t o s i m i l a r p r o t e s t movements i n Seymour M a r t i n L i p s e t , P o l i t i c a l Man: T h e S o c i a l B a s i s o f P o l i t i c s , New York, Doubleday Books, 1963. 59 J a m e s C. D a v i e s , "The J - C u r v e o f R i s i n g a n d D e c l i n i n g S a t i s f a c t i o n s as a C a u s e o f Some G r e a t R e v o l u t i o n s a n d a C o n t a i n e d R e b e l l i o n , " V i o l e n c e i n A m e r i c a , e d s . G r a h a m and G u r r , p . 6 87. J a m e s C. D a v i e s , " T o w a r d a T h e o r y o f R e v o l u t i o n , " A m e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i c a l R e v i e w , v o l . 27, n o . 1 ( F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 2 ) , p . 6. It s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t D a v i e s ' d a t a i n t h i s a r t i c l e a n d i b i d , l i m i t h i s c o n c l u s i o n s to the s o c i o l o g i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n of the J-Curve hypothesis. T a n t e r and M i d l a r s k y p r o v i d e f u r t h e r evidence f o r the J-curve h y p o t h e s i s . Raymond T a n t e r a n d Manus M i d l a r s k y , "A T h e o r y o f R e v o l u t i o n , " p p . 26 4-280. ^ "'"Peter M. W o r s l e y , The T r u m p e t S h a l l S o u n d : A Study of Cargo C u l t s i n M e l a n e s i a , New Y o r k , S c h o c k e n B o o k s , 1968. (Second, augmented e d i t i o n . ) and " M i l l e n a r i a n Movements i n M e l a n e s i a , " Rhodes-Livingston I n s t i t u t e , v o l . 21 ( M a r c h 1 9 5 7 ) , p p . 1 8 - 3 1 . ^^Ibid.,  p.  25.  A s c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e map i n W o r s l e y , The T r u m p e t s h a l l S o u n d , t h i r t y - t h r e e p e r c e n t o f t h e movements e x h i b i t e d m a r k e d violence.  64  W o r s l e y , The  Third  W o r l d , pp.  290-292.  6 5 C a r l H o v l a n d a n d R o b e r t R. S e a r s , " M i n o r S t u d i e s o f Aggression: VI. C o r r e l a t i o n of Lynchings with Economic I n d i c e s , " The J o u r n a l o f P s y c h o l o g y , v o l , 9 ( 1 9 4 0 ) , pp. 301-310. " *~ 66 A l e x a n d e r M i n t z , 'Re-examination o f C o r r e l a t i o n s between L y n c h i n g s and E c o n o m i c I n d i c e s , " J o u r n a l o f A b n o r m a l and S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y , v o l . 41 ( A p r i l 19 46) , p . 155~. Despite Mintz's c r i t i q u e , the o r i g i n a l study i s s t i l l f a v o u r a b l y cited. J o h n S h e 1 t o n Reed c a t a l o g u e s i t s s u b s e q u e n t p o p u l a r i t y i n J o h n S h e l t o n R e e d , "A N o t e o n t h e C o n t r o l o f L y n c h i n g , " P u b l i c O p i n i o n Q u a r t e r l y , v o l . 28, n o . 2 (Summer 1 9 6 4 ) , pp. 268-269. :  6 7 A u s t i n , P o l i t i c s i n Ghana, pp. 400-401. In a longer p a s s age Rod B u n k e r r e c o r d s a s i m i l a r s e r i e s o f e v e n t s . See Rod B u n k e r , " L i n k a g e s and the F o r e i g n P o l i c y o f P e r u , 1958-1966," The W e s t e r n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Q u a r t e r l y , v o l . 22, n o . 2 ( J u n e 1969) , p p . 2 8 5 - 2 W : 6 8 H e n r y L . B r e t t o n , T h e R i s e a n d F a l l o f Kwame N k r u m a h : A Study o f P e r s o n a l Rule T n ~ A f r i c a ^ Nev/ Y o r k , F r e d e r i c k A. P r a e g e r , 1966, p p . 15-16 1~5§~. See a l s o A r i s t i d e Z o l b e r g , "The S t r u c t u r e o f P o l i t i c a l C o n f l i c t i n t h e Nev/ S t a t e s o f T r o p i c a l A f r i c a , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , v o l . 62, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 75-76. 69 E g i l Fossum, " F a c t o r s I n f l u e n c i n g the O c c u r r e n c e o f M i l i t a r y C o u p D ' E t a t , " J o u r n a l o f P e a c e R e s e a r c h , v o l . 4, n o . 3 (1967), pp. 228-257. Fossum has b e e n c r i t i c i z e d s e v e r e l y and c o r r e c t l y by H e m e s . See Gudmund H e m e s , "On R a n k , D i s e q u i l i b r i u m a n d M i l i t a r y C o u p s D ' E t a t , " J o u r n a l o f P e a c e R e s e a r c h , v o l . 7, no. 3 (1969), pp. 65-72. ^Fossum,  op.  c i t . , p.  236.  71 Ibid.,  p.  237.  72 I n h i s a n a l y s i s o f t h i s l a t e r p e r i o d (1951-1963), Fossum changes h i s i n d i c a t i o n o f " d e t e r i o r a t i o n y e a r " t o a r i s e o r f a l l i n t h e p e r c a p i t a GNP. He a p p e a r s t h e n , t o a c c e p t t h e p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t f l u c t u a t i o n s i n e x p o r t p r o c e e d s a n d GNP per c a p i t a are h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d . He d o e s n o t d i s c u s s t h i s , h o w e v e r a n d a s s u m e s s i g n i f i c a n t i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n , when i t c o u l d h a v e b e e n l i s t e d w i t h t h e d a t a he h a d a v a i l a b l e . Unf o r t u n a t e l y , he d o e s n o t p r e s e n t h i s d a t a o n f l u c t u a t i o n s i n  GNP., n o r i s ' t h e s o u r c e a c c e s s i b l e , s o them w i t h t h e t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s , w h i c h 73  Op.  cit.,  p.  I could not are r e a d i l y  compare available.  237.  Y e a r b o o k o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a d e S t a t i s t i c s ; 1967, U n i t e d N a t i o n s P u b l i s h i n g S e r v i c e , 1967, p . 7. 7 4  New  York,  75 See Gunnar M r y d a l , A s i a n Drama: An I n q u i r y i n t o t h e P o v e r t y o f N a t i o n s , New Y o r k , Random H o u s e ( P a n t h e o n ) , 1968, chapter 13 f o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s o f u n d e r d e v e l o p e d countries. Oskar Morgenstern demonstrates t h a t the i n a c c u r a c i e s i n t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s c a n be l a r g e however. He s t r e s s e s t h e p o i n t t h a t e r r o r s h o u l d be e s t i m a t e d n o t i g n o r e d , and warns a g a i n s t " f a l s e p r e c i s i o n . " See O s k a r M o r g e n s t e r n , On t h e A c c u r a c y o f E c o n o m i c O b s e r v a t i o n s , P r i n c e t o n , N . J . , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1963 (Second edition). 76 G. U d n y Y u l e a n d M.G. K e n d a l l , An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h e T h e o r y o f S t a t i s t i c s , L o n d o n , C h a r l e s G r i f f i n & Company, 1950 (Fourt e e n t h e d i t i o n ) , pp. 627-628. 77 I r e a n a l y z e d t h e H o v l a n d and S e a r s d a t a u s i n g t h e f i v e m o v i n g a v e r a g e s method d e s c r i b e d b e l o w and f o u n d r e s u l t s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e r e p o r t e d by M i n t z ,  year very  7 8 Macbean, E x p o r t  Instability,  p.  36.  79 T h e p o p u l a t i o n o f c o u n t r i e s f r o m w h i c h t h i s s a m p l e was d r a w n was d e f i n e d b y m e m b e r s h i p i n t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s i n 1967 and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of trade s t a t i s t i c s continuous through 19501960 i n t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Y e a r b o o k o f O I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r a d e S t a t i s t i c s , 1967. The more a p p r o p r i a t e t e s t w o u l d h a v e b e e n t o d i r e c t l y compare t h e v a l u e s d e r i v e d by m o v i n g averages, w i t h t h o s e " l o g v a r i a n c e " v a l u e s computed by Coppock. Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , does p r e s e n t the b a s i c t r a d e d a t a f o r 19 46-1958 b u t t h e m o v i n g a v e r a g e s m e t h o d nmee c e s s i t a t e s t h e l o s s o f two y e a r s a t t h e b e g i n n i n g and e n d o f each s e r i e s . I f u s e d on C o p p o c k s d a t a , t h e r e f o r e , t h e two 80 a s u r e s w o u l d n o t b e f o r t h e same t i m e p e r i o d . I n some i n s t a n c e s a c o u n t r y w o u l d n o t h a v e a n y l o s s e s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e l o s s e s f r o m e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i m p a c t w o u l d be zero. However, b e c a u s e a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s were t r a n s f o r m e d ( l o g ^ g ) p r i o r t o c o r r e l a t i o n .1 was s u b s t i t u t e d f o r t h e z e r o value. The d i s t o r t i o n i n t r o d u c e d i s m i n i m a l . The l o g i o t r a n s f o r m a t i o n " p u l l e d " i n e x t r e m e s c o r e s and b r o u g h t t h e d i s t r i butions c l o s e r to normal. T h e P e a r s o n P r o d u c t Moment  c o r r e l a t i o n w i l l be u s e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s b e l o w . Others recommend n o n p a r a m e t r i c o r d e r s t a t i s t i c s , h o w e v e r . See S i d n e y S i e g e l , Non-Parametric S t a t i s t i c s f o r the B e h a v i o r a l Sciences, New Y o r k , M c G r a w - H i l l Book Company, 1 9 5 6 . Sanford Labovitz, "The A s s i g n m e n t o f Numbers t o Rank O r d e r C a t e g o r i e s , " A m e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, v o l . 35, no. 3 (June 1 9 7 0 ) , pp. 515-24, i n d i c a t e s t h a t f o r some p u r p o s e s t h e r e i s l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e . 8i For a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n , see Bruce R u s s e t t e t a l . , World Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , pp. 149-151; D o n a l d V. M c G r a n a h a n , " C o m p a r a t i v e S o c i a l R e s e a r c h i n t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s , " a n d E r w i n K. S c h e u c h , " C r o s s N a t i o n a l C o m p a r i s o n s Using Aggregate Data; Some S u b s t a n t i v e a n d M e t h o d o l o g i c a l P r o b l e m s , " b o t h i n C o m p a r i n g N a t i o n s ; The Use o f Q u a n t i t a t i v e D a t a i n C r o s s - N a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h , e d s . R i c h a r d L. M e r r i t t and S t e i n R o k k a n , New H a v e n a n d L o n d o n , Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, p p . 525-544 a n d p p . 1 3 1 - 1 6 8 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . A l s o Ashok M i t r a , " U n d e r d e v e l o p e d S t a t i s t i c s , " E c o n o m i c Development and C u l t u r a l C h a n g e , v o l . I I , No. 3, P a r t I ( A p r i l 1 9 6 3 ) , p p . 315317. P a u l S t u d e n s k i , T h e Income o f N a t i o n s ; Theory, Measurem e n t a n d A n a l y s i s , New Y o r k , New Y o r k U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1958 i s the d e f i n i t e treatment. 82 See  Morgenstern,  On  the Accuracy  o f Economic  Observations,  pp. 50-61. 83 E x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i m p a c t v a l u e s and l o s s e s f r o m e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i m p a c t v a l u e s were computed u s i n g t h r e e d i f f e r e n t e s t i m a t e s o f GNP. The e s t i m a t e s a r e f o r t h e y e a r s 1957, 1960 a n d 1965, The 1957 e s t i m a t e s c a n be f o u n d i n R u s s e t t e t a l . , W o r l d Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , pp. 152-154. The 1960 a n d 1965 e s t i m a t e s w i l l a p p e a r i n t h e s e c o n d e d i t i o n o f W o r l d H a n d b o o k o f P o l i t i c a l a n d S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , New H a v e n , Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1971 (forthcoming). Mark Z a c h e r p r o v i d e d me w i t h t h e s e e s t i m a t e s . The t o t a l t r a d e e s t i m a t e s used i n the c a l c u l a t i o n are t h r e e y e a r averages, i . e . t h e 1957 v a l u e r e p r e s e n t s t h e a v e r a g e o f t o t a l t r a d e i n 1957 a n d t h e two a d j a c e n t y e a r s . 84 F e i e r a b e n d and F e i e r a b e n d , " A g g r e s s i v e B e h a v i o r s W i t h i n P o l i t i e s , 19 4 8 - 1 9 6 2 " ; F e i e r a b e n d a n d F e i e r a b e n d , "Social Change and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e ; C r o s s N a t i o n a l P a t t e r n s " ; T e d G u r r , w i t h and a s s i s t a n c e o f R u t t e n b e r g , The C o n d i t i o n s o f C i v i l V i o l e n c e ; T e d G u r r , "A C a u s a l M o d e l o f C i v i l S t r i f e " ; T e d G u r r , "A C o m p a r a t i v e S t u d y o f C i v i l S t r i f e , " V i o l e n c e i n America; H i s t o r i c a l a n d C o m p a r a t i v e P e r s p e c t i v e s , e d s . Graham a n d G u r r , p p . 5 4 4 - 6 0 5 ; R . J . Rummel,„ " D i m e n s i o n s o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and Between N a t i o n s , " G e n e r a l Systems Y e a r b o o k , v o l . 8 (1963) , p p . 1-50; R . J . Rummel, "A F i e l d T h e o r y o f S o c i a l A c t i o n with A p p l i c a t i o n to C o n f l i c t Within Nations," G e n e r a l S y s t e m s Y e a r b o o k , v o l . 10 ( 1 9 6 5 ) , p p . 183-211? R . J .  Rummel, "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n N a t i o n s 1 9 4 6 1 9 5 9 , " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , v o l . 1 0 , no. 1 (March 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 6 5 - 7 3 ; Raymond T a n t e r , "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n N a t i o n s , 19 5 5 - 1 9 6 0 : T u r m o i l and I n t e r n a l War," Peace Research S o c i e t y : Papers 1 1 1 ( 1 9 6 5 ) , Peace Research C o n f e r e n c e ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l ) , C h i c a g o C o n f e r e n c e , 1 9 6 4 , pp. 1 5 9 - 1 8 3 ; Raymond T a n t e r , "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and Between N a t i o n s , 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 6 0 , " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , v o l . 1 0 , No. 1 (March 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 4 1 - 6 4 ; Herbon E l l i o t t Adams, The O r i g i n s o f I n s u r g e n c y , U n p u b l i s h e d D o c t o r a l D i s s e r t a t i o n , Department o f O p e r a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h , U n i v e r s i t y o f L a n c a s t e r , March, 1 9 7 0 . 85 T a n t e r , "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n N a t i o n s , 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 0 , " pp. 1 5 9 - 1 6 7 i s a major e x c e p t i o n . 86 The c o n f l i c t d a t a g a t h e r e d under t h e a u s p i c e s o f t h e D i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f N a t i o n s P r o j e c t has been g a t h e r e d t o g e t h e r f o r more c o n v e n i e n t use i n Joseph M. F i r e s t o n e , An E x p l o r a t i o n i n Systems A n a l y s i s o f Domestic C o n f l i c t , D i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f N a t i o n s P r o j e c t , U n i v e r s i t y o f H a w a i i , May 1 9 6 9 , Appendix A, mimeo. 87 G u r r w i t h R u t t e n b e r g , The C o n d i t i o n s o f C i v i l S t r i f e , pp. 4 0 - 4 3 and G u r r , "A Comparative Study o f C i v i l S t r i f e , " pp. 600-602. 88 F e i e r a b e n d and F e i e r a b e n d , " P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e and S o c i a l Change," p. 6 6 0 . 89 G u r r w i t h R u t t e n b e r g , op. c i t . , p . 2 8 . 9 0  I b i d . , pp. 2 8 - 4 4 .  91 Rummel, "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and Between N a t i o n s , " pp. 1 - 5 0 ; Rummel, "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n N a t i o n s , 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 5 9 , " pp. 6 5 - 7 3 ; T a n t e r , "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and Between N a t i o n s , 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 6 0 , " p p . 4 1 - 6 4 ; F e i e r a b e n d and F e i e r a b e n d , " A g g r e s s i v e B e h a v i o r s W i t h i n P o l i t i e s , 1 9 4 8 - 1 9 6 2 , " pp. 2 6 2 - 2 6 9 ; and F i r e s t o n e , An E x p l o r a t i o n i n Systems A n a l y s i s o f Domestic C o n f l i c t .  92 E r n e s t A. D u f f and John F. McCamant, "Measuring S o c i a l and P o l i t i c a l Requirements f o r System S t a b i l i t y i n L a t i n America," American P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Review, v o l . 6 2 , no. 4 (December 1968) , p . 1125. ~* ' 9 3  Gurr,  "A C a u s a l Model o f C i v i l S t r i f e , " p. 1 1 0 8 .  The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of press freedom used i s described i n Raymond B. Nixon, "Freedom i n the World Press: A Fresh Approach with New Data," Journalism Quarterly, v o l . 42, no. 1 (Winter 1965), pp. 3-14. This i s the same c l a s s i f i c a t i o n used by Gurr and the data are f o r 1965. I took note of the few changes i n press freedom Nixon reported since 1960. The values I used are f o r 1960-1965. See also Raymond B. Nixon, "Factors Related to Freedom i n National Press Systems," Journalism Quarterly, v o l . 27, no. 1 (Winter 1960), pp. 13-28. 95 Examination of the "raw" data c o l l e c t e d by Adams, The Origins of Insurgency, reveals a large amount of missing data. This i s most l i k e l y the case with Gurr' s data., Whether the missing data are s y s t e m a t i c a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d has not been examined. This check should be made i n future studies using "event s t a t i s t i c s . " 96  See Gurr, "A Comparative Study of C i v i l S t r i f e , " pp. 600-602. 97 Hanan C. S e l v i n , "Durkheim's Suicide and Problems of Empiri c a l Research," American Journal of Sociology, v o l . 63, no. 4 (1958), p. 611. See a l s o Herbert Hyman, Survey Design and A n a l y s i s : P r i n c i p l e s , Cases and Procedures, Glencoe, 111., The Free Press, 1955, pp. 295-327 and Paul F. L a z a r s f e l d , "Interpretation of S t a t i s t i c a l Relations as a Research Opera t i o n , " The Language of S o c i a l Research, eds. Paul F. Lazarsf e l d and Morris Rosenberg, New York, The Free Press, 1955, pp. 115-124. 98 Hayward A l k e r , J r . "Regionalism versus Universalism i n Comparing Nations," World Handbook of P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l Indicators, Russett et a l . , pp. 322-340. Also Hayward Alker, J r . , "A Typology of E c o l o g i c a l F a l l a c i e s , " Quantitative E c o l o g i c a l Analysis i n the S o c i a l Sciences, eds. Mattei Dogan and S t e i n Rokkan, Cambridge Mass., The M.I.T. Press, 1969, pp. 69-86. The type of p o l i t i c a l system has also been found to make a d i f f e r e n c e i n the strength and d i r e c t i o n of a r e l a t i o n s h i p . See John Wilkenfeld, "Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t Behavior of Nations," Journal of Peace Research, v o l . 12 (1968), pp. 56-69. 99  Greece was c l a s s i f i e d as Western or European and instead of " f o r c i n g " i t i n t o a larger category i t was dropped from t h i s analysis. ^ B r u c e M. Russett, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Regions and the I n t e r n a t i o n a l System: A Study i n P o l i t i c a l Ecology, Chicago, Rand McNally & Company, 1967, pp. 14-58, and "Delineating I n t e r n a t i o n a l Regions," Quantitative I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s : Insights and Evidence, 00  ed. J . David 352.  S i n g e r , New  York,  The  F r e e P r e s s , 1968,  pp.  T h i s seems r e a s o n a b l e b e c a u s e R u s s e t t ' s " A f r o - A s i a " d e s p i t e i t s name, c o n t a i n s o n l y t h r e e A f r i c a n s t a t e s : A l g e r i a , and M a u r i t i u s . x  0  x  317-  group, Morocco  102 . A r t h u r S. B a n k s a n d R o b e r t B. T e x t o r , A C r o s s - P o l i t y S u r v e y C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , T h e M . I . T . P r e s s , 1963; A r t h u r S. B a n k s a n d P h i l l i p M. G r e g g , " G r o u p i n g P o l i t i c a l S y s t e m s : Q-Factor A n a l y s i s of A C r o s s - P o l i t y Survey," American B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n t i s t , v o l . 9 (November 196 5 ) , p p . 3-6. 103 B e c a u s e o f t h e s m a l l number o f c a s e s t h e c e n t r i s t c o u n t r i e s were n o t a n a l y z e d s e p a r a t e l y . They were, however, combined w i t h t h e p e r s o n a l i s t and e l i t i s t c o u n t r i e s i n t o a "nonp o l y a r c h i c " or "closed group. 104^ Op.  c i t . , p.  4.  105 G u r r w i t h R u t t e n b e r g , The C o n d i t i o n s o f C i v i l S t r i f e , 19-26 a n d G u r r , "A C o m p a r a t i v e S t u d y o f C i v i l Strife," V i o l e n c e i n A m e r i c a , pp. 600-605. ^ W i l k e n f e l d , "Domestic N a t i o n s , " pp. 56-69. x  and  Foreign  Conflict  pp.  Behavior of  107 R u s s e l l H. F i t z g i b b o n , " M e a s u r i n g D e m o c r a t i c C h a n g e m L a t i n A m e r i c a , " Approaches t o Measurement i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l Relations: A Non E v a n g e l i c a l S u r v e y , e d . J o h n E . M u e l l e r , New Y o r k , A p p l e t o n - C e n t u r y - C r o f t s , 1969, p p . 2 5 3 - 2 8 2 . ( O r i g i n a l l y p u b l i s h e d i n T h e J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c s , v o l . 29 ( F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 7 ) , p p . 129-16671 ' 108 T h i s p o s i t i o n i s t h e same as t h a t p u t f o r w a r d b y G o l d , " S t a t i s t i c a l T e s t s a n d S u b s t a n t i v e S i g n i f i c a n c e , " p p . 42-46 a n d R o b e r t F . W i n c h a n d D o n a l d T. C a m p b e l l , " P r o o f ? No, Evidence? Yes. The S i g n i f i c a n c e o f t e s t s o f S i g n i f i c a n c e , " T h e A m e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i s t , v o l . 4, n o . 2 (May 1 9 6 9 ) , p p . 140109 Y u l e and Statistics, 1  1  0  Ibid.,  K e n d a l l , An I n t r o d u c t i o n pp. 310-323.  pp.  to the Theory  of  310-311.  W i l l i a m J . R o b i n s o n , " E c o l o g i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n s and t h e B e h a v i o r o f I n d i v i d u a l s , " American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, v o l . 15, n o . 3 ( J u n e 1 9 5 0 ) , p p . 3 5 1 - 3 5 7 .  The m o d i f i c a t i o n o f time i n a l o n g i t u d i n a l a n a l y s i s , however, would a f f e c t t h e s i z e o f the c o r r e l a t i o n s . 113 See D o n a l d T. Campbell and J u l i a n C. S t a n l e y , E x p e r i m e n t a l and Q u a s i - E x p e r i m e n t a l D e s i g n s f o r R e s e a r c h , C h i c a g o , Rand M c N a l l y , 1963, p. 5. 114 See n o t e s 81, 1 1 5  0p.  cit.,  pp.  1 1 6  I b i d . , p.  42.  82 and  83 above.  18-19.  117 See A r t h u r L. Stinchcombe, C o n s t r u c t i o n S o c i a l T h e o r i e s , New Y o r k , H a r c o u r t , B r a c e & World", 19687" PP» 28-38; Hyman, Survey D e s i g n and A n a l y s i s , pp. 138-311 and T r a v i s H e r s c h i and Hanan C. 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" Paper prepared f o r American P o l i t i c a l Science A s s o c i a t i o n M e e t i n g , September, 1969.  I  A P P E N D I C E S  APPENDIX 1 Table 1 E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n L a t i n and A s i a n C o u n t r i e s ;  Correlation Coefficients Latin  Time L a g  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  Countries Losses  Political 1961-1963  None  1 Year  2 Years  1 Year  0.201  (N = 20)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0.117 (N » 21)  (N « 21)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  -0.155 (N = 21)  (N » 21)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0.229 (N = 20)  (N « 21)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  -0.399 (N = 21)  (N « 21)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0.509 (N = 13)  (N = 13)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  -0.415 (N = 13)  (N = 13)  0.22S  (N = 20) -0.176  -0.183 -0.216  -0.147  Countries  Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  2 Years  1961-1965  (N = 21) 0.214 (N = 21)  Asian None  0.104  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  Violence  0.234  (N = 12) 0.280  -«0.504 -0.405  -0.246 (N = 12) -0.190  (N = 12)  (N = 12)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0.239 (N = 12)  (N = 11)  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s  -0.184 (N = 12)  (N « 11)  -0.440  -0.400  Table Export  Instability  African  Time L a g  Losses  Countries;  Export  2  and P o l i t i c a l  Violence  Correlation Coefficients  Instability  Losses  Political 1961-1963  None  1 Year  2 Years  in  Violence  1961-1965  Mean  deviations  -0.172 (N = 12)  0,.124 (N = 1 2 ) )  Mean  squared  -0.194 (N = 12)  0 .134 (N — 12)  deviations  Mean  deviations  -0.190 (N = 8)  0 .314 (N = 7)  Mean  squared  -0.143 (N = 8)  (N  0.026 (N = 7)  (N  -0.005 CN = 7)  0 .730* (N = 7)  Mean  deviations  deviations  Mean s q u a r e d  *  deviations  < .05  0 .409 7) 0 .734* 7)  SE  APPENDIX 2  Table Export  Instability  Elitist  Time Lag  Losses  Countries;  Export  1 and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e  Correlation  Instabmtvj£sses  Coefficients  Politicalj^iol^nce 1961-1963  None  1  2  Year  Years  in  1961-1965  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  - 0 . 439 (N = 13)  0.005 (N = 13)  Mean s q u a r e d  - 0 . 402  0.061 (N = 13)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0. 085 (N = 10)  -0.598 (N = 9)  Mean s q u a r e d  -0 057  -0.578 (N = 9)  deviations  deviations  (N =  (N =  13)  10)  Mean d e v i a t i o n s  -0 .298 (N = 9)  -0.225 (N = 8)  Mean s q u a r e d  -0 .321  -0.149 (N = 8)  deviations  (N =  9)  APPENDIX Table Export  Instability  Latin  Time L a g  Impact  Countries?  Export  3  1 and P o l i t i c a l  Violence  Correlation Coefficients  Instability  Impact  Political 1961-1963  None  Mean  (N = (N = (M =  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 (N = 1960 (N = 1965 (N = Mean  1961-1965  (N = (N = (N =  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 1960 1965 Mean  0.148 0.052 0,092  deviations 21) 20) 21)  0.225 0.146 0.139 (N=20)  0.180 0.106 0.141  0.247 0.203 0.194  -0.299 -0.396 -0.306  -0.050 -0.172 -0.073  -0.311 -0.399 =0.318  -0.135 -0.225 -0.145  •0.317 -0.412 -0. 333  -0.024 -0.170 -0.054  -0.322 -0.408 -0.333  -0.097 -0.208 -0.111  21) 20) 21) deviations  (N = 21) (N = (N =  20) 21)  deviations  1957 1960 1965 Mean  21) 20) 21)  deviations  1957 1960 1965  2 Years  Violence  deviations  1957 1960 1965  1 Year  in  (N = (N = (N =  squared  1957 1960 1965  21) 20) 21) deviations  (N = 21) (N = 20) (N = 21)  Table  Export  Instability  Asian  Time L a g  Impact  Countries:  MeExnort  2  and P o l i t i c a l  Violence i n  Correlation Coefficients  Instability  Impact  p  °litical  1961-1963 None  Mean  (N = 13) (N = 9 ) (N = 14)  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 1960 1965 Mean  -0.053 -0.152 -0.256  •0.279 -0.448 -0.375  -0.141 -0.338 -0.267  0.403 0.270 0.285  -0 .239 0.219 -0.014  0.518 0.436 0.437  0.256 0.287 0.073  0.063 0.161 -0 .029  0.094 0.069 -0.147  0.175 0.426 0.112  0.009 -0.015 -0.182  deviations  (N = 13) (N = 9) (N = 13)  (N = 12) (N = 9) (N = 13)  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 1960 1965 Mean  •0.157 -0.279 -0.282  deviations  1957 1960 1965  2 Years  1961-1965  deviations  1957 1960 1965  1 Year  Violence  deviations  (N = 12) (N = 9) (N = 12)  deviations  1957 1960 1965  (N = 12) (N = 9) (N = 12)  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 1960 1965  (N =  (N = (N =  deviations 12) 9) 12)  Table 3 E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n African Countries;  Time L a g None  1 Year  2 Years  Correlation Coefficients  E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact . .. Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 9) 1965 (N = 12) J  Political 1961-1963  Violence 1961-1965  -0.104 -0.173  -0.052 -0.100  Mean s a u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 9) 1965 (N = 12)  -0.076 -0.236  -0.189 0.006  Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 7) 1965 (N = 8)  -0.267 0.490  0.416 0.614  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 7) 1965 (N = 8)  0.380 0.455  0.514 0.667*  Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 6) 1965 (N = 7)  0.189 0.464  0.819*  Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 6) 1965 (N = 7)  0.338 0.489  0.628 0.780*  * < .05  9.513  APPENDIX Table Impact  of Losses  Violence  Impact Mean  (N = (N = (N =  21) 20) 21)  (N = (N = (N =  1957 1960 1965 Mean  Political  Political 1961-1963  Violence 1961-1965  0.042 -0.053 0.089  0.338 0.261 0,236  0.179 0.100 0.141  0.312 0.263 0.247  -0.037 -0.069 -0.045  -0.037 -0.126 -0.059  -0.105 -0.136 -0.111  -0.106 -0.161 -0.115  -0.284 -0.236 -0.298  -0.075 -0.189 -0.09^  -0.390 -0.323 -0.398  -0.067 -0.158 -0.079  deviations 21) 20) 21)  deviations  1957 1960 1965  (N = (N = (N =  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 1960 1965 Mean  and  Correlation Coefficients  Losses  Mean s q u a r e d  2 Years  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  deviations  1957 1960 1965  1 Year  1  i n Latin Countries;  Time L a g None  from  4  (N = (N = (N =  21) 20) 21) deviations 21) 20) 21)  deviations  1957 1960 1965  (N = (N = (N =  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 1960 1965  21) 20) 21) deviations  (N = 2 1 ) (N = 29) (N = 21)  (N=20) (N=20)  Table  Impact  of Losses  Violence  Time L a g  from  i n Asian  2  Export I n s t a b i l i t y  Countries%  and  Political  Correlation Coefficients  Impact L o s s e s  Political 1961-1963  None  Mean  (N = (N =  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 1965 Mean  Mean  Mean  -0.283 -0.375  -0.158 -0.354  -0.327 -0.413  -0.289 -0.386  0.005 -0.011  -0.200 -0.290  0.097 0.091  -0.181 -0.251  deviations  (N = 13) (N = 14)  (N = 12) (N = 13)  squared 1957 1965  Years  13) 14)  deviations 1957 1965  2  1261-1965  deviations 1957 1965  1 Year  Violence  deviations  (N = 12) (N = 13)  deviations 1957 1965  (N = 12) (N = 13)  Mean s q u a r e d 1957 1965  -0.285 -0.293  -0.231 -0.379(N=12)  -0.258 -0.253  -0.289 -0.383  deviations  (N = 12) (N = 13)  (N=12)  

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