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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Export instability and political violence in underdeveloped countries Moul, William Brian 1971

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EXPORT INSTABILITY AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES by WILLIAM BRIAN MOUL B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1968 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF PIASTER OF ARTS i n t h e Department o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e Required s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA September 1970 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the requirements f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head o f my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s understood t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f Political Science The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada September 15, 1970 ABSTRACT There have been few attempts t o e m p i r i c a l l y d e l i n e a t e and assess the importance of " e x t e r n a l " or " i n t e r n a t i o n a l " f a c t o r s i n the study of comparative p o l i t i c s and p o l i t i c a l development. The purpose of t h i s t h e s i s i s t o examine an " i n t e r n a t i o n a l - n a t i o n a l l i n k a g e " x«rhich has been the s u b j e c t of c o n s i d e r a b l e s p e c u l a t i o n b u t r e s s e d w i t h a n e c d o t a l evidence. The l i n k a g e i s between the s h o r t term i n s t a b i l i t y of export proceeds of underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s and the amount of p o l i t i -c a l v i o l e n c e w i t h i n these c o u n t r i e s . The independent v a r i a b l e s are e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y , e x p o r t l o s s e s , e x port i n s t a b i l i t y impact, and the impact of export l o s s e s . In the f i r s t s e c t i o n of the t h e s i s , the e x t e r n a l nature of e x port i n s t a b i l i t y i s d i s c u s s e d . Export i n s t a b i l i t y i s not always induced e x t e r n a l l y . The evidence l i n k i n g e x p o r t i n s t a -b i l i t y t o domestic economic d i s t u r b a n c e s and economic d i s t u r -bances t o p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i s presented and d i s c u s s e d i n the next s e c t i o n . Domestic economic d i s t u r b a n c e i s an unmeasured i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e i n t h i s study. There are many methods of computing the i n s t a b i l i t y of export proceeds. Percentage d e v i a t i o n s from annual t r e n d v a l u e s are used i n t h i s t h e s i s , w i t h the t r e n d v a l u e s computed u s i n g f i v e year moving averages. The data sources and v a r i o u s measures of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e a v a i l a b l e are assessed i n terms of v a l i d i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y . A composite index of "the t o t a l magnitude of c i v i l s t r i f e , " developed by Gurr and Ruttenberg, i s used t o measure the amount of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . The r e s u l t s o f a c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s f o r a sample o f f o r t y - s e v e n u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s i n d i c a t e z e r o r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e f o u r i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . A l a c k o f c o v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n t h e t o t a l sample may o b s c u r e s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s o f o p p o s i t e s i g n w i t h i n s p e c i -f i e d subsamples. A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e sample i s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e r e l a t i v e l y homogeneous s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e g i o n s and f o u r p o l i t i c a l system t y p e s . The e x t e n t and d i r e c t i o n o f t h e r e l a -t i o n s h i p s does v a r y a c c o r d i n g t o r e g i o n and t y p e o f p o l i t i c a l system. The v a r i a t i o n i s n o t l a r g e . TABLE LI S T OF TABLES PAGE P r i c e and Volume o f Cocao E x p o r t s from Ghana 1950-1962. . . . I I . C o r r e l a t i o n M a t r i x o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and V a r i o u s Economic Measures. 12 I I I . Number o f Coups p e r Three Year I n t e r v a l s f o r Twenty L a t i n American C o u n t r i e s % 1907-1966 . . . . 23 IV. The F i v e Year Moving Averages Method o f C a l -c u l a t i n g E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y ? C e y l o n 1961-1965 . . 28 V. A Comparison o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Measures f o r Twelve C o u n t r i e s ? 1950-1960 29 V I . Domestic V i o l e n c e and t h e E x t e n t o f P r e s s Freedom 36 VII. H y p o t h e t i c a l E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y D a t a f o r Two C o u n t r i e s . . 38 V I I I . E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n F o r t y - S e v e n U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . . . . 40 IX. E x p o r t L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n F o r t y -Seven U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 41 X. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l a n c e i n F o r t y - S e v e n U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 42 XI. Impact o f L o s s e s from E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n F o r t y - S e v e n U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 43 X I I . Sample C o u n t r i e s C l a s s i f i e d .According t o Re g i o n and P o l i t i c a l System Type 46 X I I I . A Comparison o f Two Measures o f Democracy 49 XIV. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A f r i c a n C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . . . 52 XV. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n L a t i n C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . . . . 53 XVI. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A s i a n C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . . . . 54 TABLE PAGE X V I I . E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y a r c h i c C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . 55 X V I I I . E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n "Non P o l y a r c h i c " C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . . . . . . 56 XIX. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l a n c e i n P e r s o n a l i s t C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 58 XX. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n E l i t i s t C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . . 59 XXI. E x p o r t L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y -a r c h i c C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . . . 60 XX I I . E x p o r t L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P e r s o n a l i s t C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 61 X X I I I . E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y a r c h i c C o u n t r i e s ? C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 63 XXIV. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P e r s o n a l i s t C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 64 XXV. E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n E l i t i s t C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . 66 XXVI. Impact o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A f r i c a n C o u n t r i e s i C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s . . 68 XXVII. Impact o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y a r c h i c C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 69 XXVI I I . Impact o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n "Non P o l y a r c h i c " C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 70 XXIX. Impact o f E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P e r s o n a l i s t C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s 71 LIST OF FIGURES PAGE FIGURE 1 . The Hypothesized Relationship Between Export" I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l Violence A p roblem w e l l s t a t e d i s h a l f s o l v e d . John Dewey S c i e n c e i s n o t h i n g b u t d e v e l o p e d p e r c e p t i o n , i n t e r p r e t e d i n t e n t , common s e n s e , rounded ou t and m i n u t e l y a r t i c u l a t e d . George Santayana Common sense; t h a t which t e l l s us t h a t the e a r t h i s f l a t . Anon. T r u t h emerges more r e a d i l y from e r r o r t h an from c o n f u s i o n , F r a n c i s Bacon We must expand our s t u d e n t s vow o f p o v e r t y t o i n c l u d e n o t o n l y the w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c c e p t p o v e r t y o f f i n a n c e s , b u t a l s o a p o v e r t y o f e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s u l t s . Donald T. Campbell and J u l i a n C. S t a n l e y ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Fc. advice and encouragement I would l i k e to thank Dori Blake, David E l k i n s , Kal H o l s t i , Ole H o l s t i , Frank Langdon, Don Wells and Mark Zacher of the Department of P o l i t i c a l Science. David E l k i n s , who supervised the t h e s i s , provided extensive c r i t i c a l comment. 1 b e n e f i t e d from d i s -cussions with Ken McVicar of Queens U n i v e r s i t y . I would also l i k e to acknowledge the comments made by John Boyd, Geoffrey Hainsworth, and P h i l i p Neher of the Department of Economics on the prospectus. INTRODUCTION I t i s a common b u t s i g n i f i c a n t c r i t i c i s m t h a t " e x t e r n a l " o r " i n t e r n a t i o n a l " f a c t o r s a r e i g n o r e d i n c o n c e p t u a l a pproaches t o c o m p a r a t i v e p o l i t i c s i n g e n e r a l and p o l i t i c a l development i n p a r t i c u l a r . F o r example F r e d R i g g s , d i s c u s s i n g t h e early-s t r u c t u r a l f u n c t i o n a l approach p r o p o s e d by G a b r i e l Almond, n o t e d and c r i t i c i z e d t h e K t a c i t a s sumption. . . t h a t t h e p o l i t i c s o f d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s can be t r e a t e d as r e l a t i v e l y autonomous o r c l o s e d p o l i t i c a l systems.""'' The impetus t o b r i d g e t h e c o n c e p t u a l gap between com-p a r a t i v e and i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s has come p r i m a r i l y from s t u d e n t s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . James Rosenau has w r i t t e n on t h e " p e n e t r a t e d s t a t e " and has d e v e l o p e d an e l a -b o r a t e t y p o l o g y o f " n a t i o n a l - i n t e r n a t i o n a l l i n k a g e " phen-2 omena. K a r l Deutsch has a l s o d i s c u s s e d e x t e r n a l i n f l u e n c e s 3 on the d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c s o f s t a t e s . S t a n l e y Hoffman, " w i t h -o u t w a n t i n g t o sound l i k e an i m p e r i a l i s t " f o r h i s own d i s c i p l i n e , s t a t e s t h a t " i f i n t h e s t u d y o f p o l i t i c s , we were t o p u t t h e p r i m a r y emphasis on w o r l d a f f a i r s , we m i g h t p r o d u c e 4 a C o p e r n i c a n r e v o l u t i o n . . . ." The t h r u s t o f h i s argument i s n o t t h a t d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c s can be o r s h o u l d be t r e a t e d as a f u n c t i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s b u t t h a t d o m e s t i c p o l i -t i c a l systems s h o u l d n o t be s t u d i e d i n i s o l a t i o n . D e s p i t e t h e c r i t i c i s m and attempts a t c o n c e p t u a l r e -v i s i o n , t h e r e has been v e r y l i t t l e s y s t e m a t i c e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h d e l i n e a t i n g and a s s e s s i n g t h e importance o f " e x t e r n a l " - 2 -f a c t o r s . 5 Speculation coupled with anecdotal evidence i s , on the other hand, abundant t One example w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t to i l l u s t r a t e t h i s now. Samuel Huntington argues that the apparent "waves" of domestic p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n the post World War II period are the r e s u l t of a cross n a t i o n a l demonstration e f f e c t . The power of example, the i n f l u e n c e exercised by the "pace setter^' i s a c r i t i c a l l y important r e s u l t of the improvement i n world wide communications. A s u c c e s s f u l coup or i n s u r r e c t i o n by one party or group i n one country i n s p i r e s s i m i l a r p a r t i e s or groups i n other countries to s i m i l a r a c t i o n . Revolution (and other forms of domestic v i o l e n c e r e f l e c t i n g changing p o l i t i c a l tides) are seldom exported, but they are often i m i t a t e d . 6 The purpose of t h i s paper i s to examine one i n t e r -n a t i o n a l - n a t i o n a l linkage which has been the subject of con-si d e r a b l e speculation butressed with anecdotal evidence. The linkage i s between the external economic environments of T h i r d World countries and p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y w i t h i n them. More s p e c i f i c a l l y f the hypothesis i s that there i s a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between the degree of short term export i n -s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y i n economically under-developed coun t r i e s . Export i n s t a b i l i t y i s defined by economists as the annual deviations from the trend of t o t a l export proceeds. I have defined p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y i n terms of the number and type of p o l i t i c a l events, whose common denominator i s the actual or threatened use of v i o l e n c e , occurring w i t h i n a country. - 3 -Almond and P o w e l l , i n t h e most r e c e n t v e r s i o n o f t h e s t r u c t u r a l f u n c t i o n a l framework, i n c l u d e a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e " i n t e r n a t i o n a l e x t r a c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y " o f s t a t e s . They p r o v i d e a h y p o t h e t i c a l example, t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e use o f t h i s c o n c e p t , which i s s i m i l a r t o t h e h y p o t h e s i s t o be p r o b e d i n t h i s p a p e r . In a n a t i o n where 90 p e r c e n t o f f o r e i g n exchange depends upon a s i n g l e a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t o r m i n e r a l r e s o u r c e , i t may be i m p o s s i b l e t o m a i n t a i n a s t a b l e e x t r a c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y w hich may i n t u r n weaken o t h e r c a p a b i l i t i e s . 7 E x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y can be c o n s i d e r e d " e x t e r n a l " i n s o f a r as i t i s assumed t h a t t h e demand f o r t h e e x p o r t s o f T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s i s autonomous o f t h e d o m e s t i c c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r y . E x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i s t h e r e f o r e e x t e r n a l because o f t h e l o c u s o f d i s t u r b a n c e and t h e l a c k o f c o n t r o l t h e e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r y has o v e r a b a s i c s o u r c e o f income. F o r example, F l u h a r t y d e s c r i b e s t h e e x p o r t p o s i t i o n o f Colombia as f o l l o w s : I t i s no e x a g g e r a t i o n t o say t h a t c o f f e e pays the b i l l f o r Colombian p r o s p e r i t y , and t h a t p r o s p e r i t y i s always s u b j e c t t o t h e h a b i t s o f N o r t h Americans r e g a r d i n g c o f f e e . S h o u l d a l l Americans c u t t h e i r d a i l y r a t i o n o f c o f f e e by one cup, m i s e r y would descend upon m i l l i o n s o f Colombians.9 T h i s assumption i s o f t e n the b a s i s f o r recommending i n t e r -n a t i o n a l agreements t o reduce the e f f e c t s o f o r t o compensate f o r ' t h e l o s s e s due t o e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y . The Board o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s C o n f e r e n c e on T rade and Development (UNCTAD) d e c l a r e d i n 196 9 t h a t - 4 -i t has long been a source of serious concern to developing countries that development programmes, however w e l l conceived and however w e l l executed, are o f t e n at the mercy of e x t e r n a l forces beyond t h e i r c o n t r o l i n the form of unforseen f l u c t u a t i o n s i n commodity export markets.1° This reasoning a l s o c o n s t i t u t e s a minor theme i n some of the w r i t i n g s on neo-colonialism. Nkrumah writes that i n t e r -n a t i o n a l c a p i t a l ' s c o n t r o l of the world market as w e l l as the p r i c e s of commodities bought and s o l d there works to the detriment of the T h i r d World. TTorsley's p o s i t i o n i s 12 s i m i l a r and, from a very d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e , Coppock would seem to concur. Export f l u c t u a t i o n s i n l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s , he argues, create p a r t i c u l a r l y good opportunities f o r "Soviet Communist i n t e r v e n t i o n " because the f a l l i n proceeds "emanates or appears to emanate from c a p i t a l -13 i s t i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s . *' The locus of the disturbance and the degree of c o n t r o l are not, however, u s u a l l y simple to determine. I n t e r n a l or domestic f a c t o r s such as droughts, f l o o d s , or disease r e s u l t i n g i n crop f a i l u r e would a l s o reduce export proceeds. The cocao proceeds of Ghana sharply d e c l i n e d i n the l a t e 1940's because of the "swollen shoot ! which ne c e s s i t a t e d the des-14 t r u c t i o n of thousands of cocao t r e e s . Ghana provides an example of a case i n which v a r i a t i o n s i n the supply may r e s u l t i n a reduction of p r i c e and proceeds. Like many other primary products, cocao has a low e l a s t i c i t y of demand and Ghana has the l a r g e s t proportion of the world - 5 -market f o r cocao. Generally, , :the l a r g e r a country *s trade share the greater the chance that a proportionate increase i n 15 exports w i l l upset the p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s t r u c t u r e . " The supply and demand r e l a t i o n s h i p s of cocao are p a r t i c u l a r l y i n -t r i c a t e but the data presented i n Table I i l l u s t r a t e t h i s p o i n t . I f the volume of cocao increases, the p r i c e and proceeds tend to d e c l i n e . Cocao proceeds of another country with a smaller share of the market would f l u c t u a t e with Ghanaian proceeds. In t h i s case, because the disturbance i s i n another country and there i s r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e means of c o n t r o l over i t , the export i n s t a b i l i t y would be "ex t e r n a l . " I t i s impossible to s o r t out when and f o r which coun-t r i e s and commodities export f l u c t u a t i o n s are "external" as opposed to " i n t e r n a l . " I t seems reasonable, however, to suppose that export i n s t a b i l i t y i s "more e x t e r n a l than 17 i n t e r n a l . " The question of the boundaries between n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l phenomena has o f t e n been debated. The conceptual problem has not been solved and the debate over s p e c i f i c types of v a r i a b l e s has often resembled a p e c u l i a r 18 j u r i s d i c t i o n a l dispute. This type of debate contributes l i t t l e to our understanding. The relevance of t h i s debate i s questionable i f v a r i a b l e s designated as "external" do not covary with t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g " i n t e r n a l " v a r i a b l e s . The establishment of c o v a r i a t i o n i s a necessary f i r s t step. The importance of v a r i a b l e s designated as "external" i s an 19 e m p i r i c a l question and should be treated as such. In short, ^ABLE I P r i c e and Volume o f Cocao E x p o r t s from Ghana 1950 - 1962 Year 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 P r i c e 1 205 262 253 237 395 318 : u s 195 316 275 219 171 159 2 Volume 267 230 212 237 214 206 234 260 197 250 303 450 421 P r o c e e d s 3 54.6 60.3 52.5 56.1 84.6 65.6 51.1 50.9 62.3 68.8 66.4 69.3 67.0 1 Average F.O.B. v a l u e i n pounds (Ghana) p e r t o n 2 Thousands o f tons e x p o r t e d 3 M i l l i o n s o f pounds (Ghana) Source; Tony K i l l i c k , " E x t e r n a l T r a d e , " The Economy o f Ghana, e d s . and r e s e a r c h d i r e c t o r s , W a l l y Birmingham, I . N e u s t a d t and E.N. Omabol, London, George A l l e n and Unwin L t d . , 1966, p. 34 8, T a b l e 14:10. (A Study o f Contemporary Ghana, Volume 1) - 7 -the purpose of t h i s t h e s i s i s to add some systematic evidence to the mass of anecdote and spe c u l a t i o n concerning the p o l i -t i c a l and s o c i a l e f f e c t s of one "external" v a r i a b l e — e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y . The reasoning behind the hypothesis t h a t export i n -s t a b i l i t y causes p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y or v i o l e n c e i n econ-omically underdeveloped countries i s o u t l i n e d i n the schematic diagram below. Figure 1. The Hypothesized Relationship Between Export I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l Violence DOMESTIC POLITICAL ECONOMIC > VIOLENCE DISTURBANCE In the fo l l o w i n g two sections of t h i s t h e s i s , the evidence relevant to each step i n t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i l l be presented and evaluated. Next, the v a r i a b l e s w i l l be empiri-c a l l y defined and the "data making" procedures w i l l be described. The hypotheses, r e f i n e d i n l i g h t of the d i s c u s s i o n of the evidence i n the l i t e r a t u r e , w i l l be examined using c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s with a sample of forty-seven l e s s developed countries and the r e s u l t s i n t e r p r e t e d . EXPORT INSTABILITY - 8 -Export I n s t a b i l i t y and Economic Disturbance: The Evidence I t has often been noted that the f i n a n c i a l " l o s s e s " of l e s s developed countries from export i n s t a b i l i t y since 1950 were much greater than the inflow i n t o these countries of a l l 20 f o r e i g n economic a i d and p r i v a t e investment. The v a l i d i t y 21 and accuracy of t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n has been questioned, but i t does provide one i n d i c a t i o n of the magnitude of the problem o f export i n s t a b i l i t y . There appears to be a consensus i n the l i t e r a t u r e on economic development that the i n t e r n a l economic consequences of export i n s t a b i l i t y are extremely detrimental. Higgins states that: Underdeveloped countries outside the a r i d zone are unstable mainly because of t h e i r o r i e n t a t i o n towards exports, often combined with concentration on a very small range of raw materials and f o o d s t u f f s . In recent decades, the markets f o r these exports have been extremely unstable. This importance and i n -s t a b i l i t y of exports i s the main f a c t o r which through the ac t i o n o f the " m u l t i p l i e r " and "acce l e r a t o r " causes f l u c t u a t i o n s i n income and employment. 2 2 Ingram concurs, s t a t i n g that large changes i n export proceeds 23 are "a major d i s r u p t i v e i n f l u e n c e . " Bhagwati notes that the l e s s developed countries are more dependent upon taxes derived from trade. Export f l u c t u a t i o n therefore "tends to 24 t r a n s l a t e i t s e l f immediately i n t o unstable revenue. . . . " While Kenen points out that short term export i n s t a b i l i t y was more pronounced p r i o r to World War I I , he also argues that 25 the economic and social, tolerances axe much lower now. _ 9 _ More emphatically, Cairncross a s s e r t s that the damaging e f f e c t s 26 of export i n s t a b i l i t y "are beyond question," This argument assumes that less developed countries are more dependent upon trade than the i n d u s t r i a l c ountries and that t h e i r exports are h i g h l y concentrated i n a small number of primary products whose p r i c e s are 'notoriously v o l a t i l e . " I t i s then i n f e r r e d that extreme export i n s t a b i l i t y i s a phen-omenon p e c u l i a r to economically underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s . This c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n has been examined i n part by Coppock and not found to be accurate. Using a sample of eighty nations, Coppock reported a c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t (Pearson product moment) of -0.23 between export i n s t a b i l i t y and the degree of economic development as measured by gross n a t i o n a l product per c a p i t a . ^ I re-analyzed the data reported by Coppock and others i n order to examine the characterization more completely; to a i d i n assessing the r e l i a b i l i t y of various measures of export i n s t a b i l i t y and estimates of gross n a t i o n a l product per c a p i t a ; and to provide a more representative p i c t u r e of the 1946-1958 time peri o d under consi d e r a t i o n . The c o r r e l a t i o n between export i n s t a b i l i t y and economic development was a l s o recom-puted because i t was not c l e a r whether Coppock transformed h i s v a r i a b l e s p r i o r to c o r r e l a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s . The use of the product moment s t a t i s t i c assumes normal d i s t r i b u t i o n s . The d i s t r i b u t i o n of GNP per c a p i t a i s not normal but h i g h l y 28 skevred. Therefore, Coppock * s c o e f f i c i e n t could be in a c c u r a t e . ~ 10 -The degree o f economic development i s measured by the per c a p i t a gross n a t i o n a l product. This i n d i c a t o r has a l l the l i m i t a t i o n s common to most measures which are derived from n a t i o n a l accounts s t a t i s t i c s and are magnified by cross na-t i o n a l comparison. (These l i m i t a t i o n s w i l l be discussed i n some d e t a i l below.) I t has, however, considerable convergent 29 v a l i d i t y . A l l of the most frequently used a l t e r n a t i v e s are hi g h l y c o r r e l a t e d with GNP per c a p i t a . 3 ^ The r e l i a b i l i t y of Coppock's estimates can be determined by the s i z e of the cor -r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t between the two estimates f o r 1957. Trade o r i e n t a t i o n was measured by the r a t i o of t o t a l 31 trade, imports plus exports, to GNP expressed as a percentage. Coppock measured commodity concentration using the Hirschman 32 index. The Hirschman index measures concentration per se, not the type of commodities. The export proceeds of each country are u s u a l l y compiled according to a standard commodity c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . The index values are computed by summing the squared percentages of t o t a l proceeds i n each c l a s s and taking 33 the square root. This measure does not d i f f e r e n t i a t e between concentration i n i n d u s t r i a l products or primary products. A country with 100 per cent of i t s proceeds derived from manu-factured goods would receive the same value as a country with i t s t o t a l proceeds derived from the sa l e of one a g r i c u l t u r a l product. To d i f f e r e n t i a t e the two cases a measure of the dependency on exportation of primary products was included. The measure i s the percentage of t o t a l export proceeds accounted 11 -3^ f o r by p r i m a r y p r o d u c t s i n 19 55. E x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y r e f e r s t o t h e a n n u a l f l u c t u a t i o n s o f e x p o r t p r o c e e d s from t h e t r e n d o f t h e s e p r o c e e d s o v e r t i m e . There a r e numerous methods o f m e a s u r i n g e x p o r t i n -s t a b i l i t y . I n h i s a n a l y s i s , Coppock r e l i e d a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y on t h e " l o g v a r i a n c e " method o f c o m p u t a t i o n b u t p r e s e n t e d d a t a on two o t h e r measures. The c o m p u t a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s a r e d e s c r i b e d more f u l l y e l s e w h e r e . B r i e f l y , however, t h e t h r e e measures d i f f e r i n t h e way t h e t r e n d i n t h e s e r i e s was e l i m -i n a t e d . Coppock's " l o g v a r i a n c e " method and t h e " p e r c e n t a g e 35 d e v i a t i o n s " method f o r m a l l y e l i m i n a t e t h e t r e n d . The t h i r d measure, d e v e l o p e d by t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s , e l i m i n a t e s 36 the t r e n d o n l y i n a r a t h e r h a p h a z a r d manner. I t has l e s s " f a c e v a l i d i t y " b e cause o f t h i s and, as Coppock p o i n t s o u t , s t e a d y growth o f p r o c e e d s may be i n t e r p r e t e d by t h i s p r o c e d u r e . . 37 as e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y . I t can be r e a d i l y a p p r e c i a t e d from t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x ( T a b l e II) t h a t t h e c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n needs q u a l i f i c a -t i o n . W h i l e t h e r e i s some e v i d e n c e t h a t as i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n 33 i n c r e a s e s o v e r t i m e , th e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f t r a d e d e c l i n e s , t h e i n f e r e n c e t h a t l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a r e more dependent upon t r a d e i s n o t s t r o n g l y s u p p o r t e d . There i s o n l y a moder-a t e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a d e o r i e n t a t i o n and economic dev-elopment. The e x p o r t s o f e c o n o m i c a l l y u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a r e more c o n c e n t r a t e d i n a fev/ p r o d u c t s and a r e composed p r i -m a r i l y o f raw m a t e r i a l s . However, the i n f e r e n c e t h a t t h e TABLE I I C o r r e l a t i o n M a t r i x of Export I n s t a b i l i t y and Va r i o u s Economic Me 1. GNP per c a p i t a 1955 1.0000 2. GNP per c a p i t a 1957 (Coppock) .9294 1.0000 3. GNP per c a p i t a 1957 .9711 .9233 1.0000 4. Export I n s t a b i l i t y 1946-1958 ("log variance") -.2741 -.2927 - . 2 9 8 6 1.0000 5. Export I n s t a b i l i t y 1946-1958 ("percentage -.3119 -.3461 -.3365 .8965 1.0000 d e v i a t i o n s " ) ~ 6. Export I n s t a b i l i t y ,i9?5~i9xT8 .^ , -.1950 -.1880 -.2195 .9064 .8392 1.0000 (United Nations) •; ... ===== 7. Trade O r i e n t a t i o n 1957 .2467 .3032 .2185 -.2401 -.2260 -.1535 1.0000 TABLE I I (Continued) 8. Hirschman Index of Commodity C o n c e n t r a t i o n _ "-3132 -.4352 .0296 .0324 .0230 .2098 1.0000 9. Dependence on R a i 9 5 5 t e r i a l S -.5098 -.5213 -.5717 .0916 .1969 .0091 .0310 .5399 1.0000 = < .01 p a < .05 S o u r c e s : Joseph D. Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y ; The E x p e r i e n c e A f t e r World War I I , New York, M c G r a w - H i l l Book Company, 1962, Appendix, T a b l e A-2. Bruce R u s s e t t e t a l . , World Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , New Haven, Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1964, pp. 155-157. N o r t o n G i n s b u r g , A t l a s o f Economic Development, C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1959, pp. 16-19, 106-107. - 14 -underdeveloped countries are therefore most l i k e l y to s u f f e r extreme f l u c t u a t i o n s i n exports i s i n a c c u r a t e . The c o r r e l a -t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r two of the measures of export i n s t a -b i l i t y and GNP per c a p i t a are s i g n i f i c a n t §t?tistically and 39 s u b s t a n t i v e l y but they are not as high as one would expect from the previous argument. C l e a r l y , export i n s t a b i l i t y i s not r e s t r i c t e d to economically underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s . The c o r r e l a t i o n s using the United Nations measure of export i n s t a b i l i t y and GNP per c a p i t a are lower than those of the other two measures. However, a l l three measures of export i n s t a b i l i t y are h i g h l y i n t e r c o r r e l a t e d , i n d i c a t i n g s i g n i f i c a n t v a l i d i t y . This f a c t w i l l be used below to assess the v a l i d i t y of the measure of export i n s t a b i l i t y I have employed. Coppock and Macbean have also demonstrated that the g e n e r a l i z a t i o n that export f l u c t u a t i o n s i n e v i t a b l y r e s u l t i n i n t e r n a l economic disturbances must be s i m i l a r l y q u a l i f i e d . Macbean terms t h i s g e n e r a l i z a t i o n "an orthodoxy" with "almost u n i v e r s a l acceptance" and concludes that "instead of being p e c u l i a r l y vulnerable to export f l u c t u a t i o n s such countries may have a 'natural' r e s i s t a n c e . " 4 0 Two of the c o r r e l a t i o n s reported above would appear to be relevant to the immunity of l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s . As has been pointed out, l e s s developed countries do not e x h i b i t greater export i n s t a b i l i t y than the more advanced countries nor are they more trade-orientated than these - 15 -c o u n t r i e s . The e f f e c t s of export i n s t a b i l i t y nay depend upon the i n t e r a c t i o n between the degree of export i n s t a b i l i t y and the s i z e of the trade o r i e n t a t i o n . For example, Country A, which has an extreme amount of export i n s t a b i l i t y and a very low trade o r i e n t a t i o n , may be more immune than Country B which has only a moderate amount of export i n s t a b i l i t y but an extreme dependence upon trade. The macro economic e f f e c t s of export i n s t a b i l i t y have c l e a r l y been overstated. Both Coppock and Macbean i n c r o s s -s e c t i o n a l analyses found i n s i g n i f i c a n t c o v a r i a t i o n between 41 export i n s t a b i l i t y and f l u c t u a t i o n s i n n a t i o n a l income. Grouping h i s sample of seventy countries i n t o t h i r d s accor-ding to the degree of export i n s t a b i l i t y , Coppock reported a 42 moderate r e l a t i o n s h i p . Macbean*s l o n g i t u d i n a l a n a l y s i s 43 of a much smaller number of countries y i e l d e d mixed r e s u l t s . In some l e s s developed countries with high dependency upon trade "some co n s i s t e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p between d i r e c t i o n of change i n GNP and exports may w e l l e x i s t . " ' ' Macbean a l s o examined the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between export i n s t a b i l i t y and other i n d i c a t o r s of domestic economic conditions but found 45 l i t t l e c o v a r i a t i o n . The consequences to the domestic economy have c l e a r l y been exaggerated i n much of the l i t e r a t u r e but these f i n d i n g s do not i n d i c a t e that export i n s t a b i l i t y has only meager e f f e c t s i n a l l l e s s developed count r i e s . As Macbean s t a t e s : - 16 -At no p o i n t do I deny t h a t some underdeveloped countries may s u f f e r severely from export i n -s t a b i l i t y . On the contrary I f e e l c e r t a i n they do. The study has not e s t a b l i s h e d that f l u c t u a t i o n s i n export earnings do no damage to underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s , but i t has shown that the contrary view of grave i n t e r n a l troubles a r i s i n g i n e v i -t a b l y from export i n s t a b i l i t y i s not upheld, by the only r e a d i l y obtainable evidence. 4* 5 These r e s u l t s have stimulated d i s c u s s i o n of p o l i c y proposals to counter export i n s t a b i l i t y but have not deterred speculation about the domestic p o l i t i c a l consequences. Pincus, favourably noting Macbean's f i n d i n g s , rather melodramatically restates a v a r i a n t of the c e n t r a l hypothesis. Kwame Nkrumah l o i t e r s i n Guinea, a s o l i t a r y redeemer, savoring memories of former potency and dreaming of power as yet untasted. A p r o t e s t i n g Sukarno s l i d e s inexorably down a pole greased by h i s cabinet m i n i s t e r s . These vagaries, which help shape the world's p o l i t i c a l d e s t i n i e s , a l l r e f l e c t i n p a r t the f l u c t u a t i o n s of world markets f o r commodities -the f o o d s t u f f s and raw materials that enter world trade. Nkrumah s u f f e r e d p o l i t i c a l l y from the consequences of the f a l l i n g p r i c e s f o r cocao; Sukarno from d e c l i n i n g rubber p r i c e s and reductions i n export volume f o r t i n and rubber. . . . 4 ? Coppock stresses the importance of export i n s t a b i l i t y because of i t s " e f f e c t s on the i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l p o l i t i c s " o f many countries. His rather "cold w a r r i o r i s h " argument i s , to quote b r i e f l y , as folloxvs: The consequent i n t e r n a l economic d i s t r e s s provides one basis f o r p o l i t i c a l disturbances. P o l i t i c a l disturbances create opportunities f o r Soviet Communist penetration and the weakening of the r e l a t i v e power p o s i t i o n of the Free World.48 - 17 -Economic Disturbance and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e : The Evidence Walt Rostov/ i s one of the few economists who has attempted to l i n k v a r i a b i l i t y of trade with p o l i t i c a l i n -s t a b i l i t y . He examined the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c y c l i c a l expansion and depression of trade, unemployment, bread p r i c e s and overt mass p r o t e s t i n nineteenth century England. He reported a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between c y c l i c a l depression, high unemployment, high bread p r i c e s and extensive p o l i t i c a l 49 p r o t e s t . However, i n s p e c t i o n of Rostow's methodology reveals that, rather than supporting the hypothesis, he had accepted i t as true i n d e r i v i n g h i s index of p o l i t i c a l pro-t e s t . The v a r i a b l e s are not independently defined. Although Rostow has often been c i t e d as presenting data i n support of 50 the r e l a t i o n s h i p between economic and p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y , h i s S o c i a l Tension Chart "at best summarized i n f l u e n c e s oper-at i n g on the i n d u s t r i a l working c l a s s . ( : As he mentions i n a note, h i s method makes "the q u i t e a r b i t r a r y judgement that c y c l i c a l unemployment and high food p r i c e s were equally r e s -51 ponsible f o r unrest." T.S. Ashton, i n h i s economic h i s t o r y of eighteenth century England, provides some anecdotal evidence l i n k i n g economic f l u c t u a t i o n s with r i o t s and other p o l i t i c a l d i s t u r -52 bances. However, he makes an e r r o r s i m i l a r to Rostow's. Evidence of " s o c i a l unrest and d i s t r e s s " i s also used as a 53 c r i t e r i o n f o r c l a s s i f y i n g periods as depressions. - 18 -Although Rostov; and Ashton do not add e m p i r i c a l support f o r the hypothesis, t h e i r acceptance of i t does not appear mistaken i n the l i g h t of l a t e r studies- Gurr reported s i g -n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s between the magnitudes of conspiracy, i n t e r n a l war, c i v i l t u r m o i l , and the t o t a l magnitude of c i v i l s t r i f e and ?'short term depri v a t i o n ! ! or economic disturbance i n a sample of 115 c o u n t r i e s . "Short term d e p r e v i a t i o n t : i s a composite measure combining aggregate data on trends i n trade value, rates of i n f l a t i o n , rates of GNP per c a p i t a growth and other information on economic c o n d i t i o n s , i n c l u d -54 ing the c o n d i t i o n of the export markets. Fexerabend, Feierabend and Conroe found a s i m i l a r c o r r e l a t i o n between the growth rates of GNP per c a p i t a and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n 55 eighty-four c o u n t r i e s . However, i n an e a r l i e r study Gurr discovered an unexpected lack of c o v a r i a t i o n between growth rates of GNP per c a p i t a and c i v i l v i o l e n c e i n l e s s developed count r i e s . Evaluating t h i s , Gurr concluded that the most l i k e l y explanation was "the inadequacy of economic growth rates as an i n d i c a t o r of the impact of economic f l u c t u a t i o n s 56 on people i n developing countries. . . ." Tanter and Midlarsky found that the c o r r e l a t i o n between GNP per c a p i t a rates of change and frequency of r e v o l u t i o n v a r i e d according to geographical and c u l t u r a l region.. The c o r r e l a t i o n f o r L a t i n American countries was i n s i g n i f i c a n t but i n the Middle East and A s i a i t v/as very strong. One l i m i -t a t i o n of these r e s u l t s i s the very small number of cases 57 upon which the c o r r e l a t i o n s were computed. - 19 -In h i s c l a s s i c study of the CCF i n Saskatchewan, L i p s e t assigned p a r t i c u l a r importance to the '"boom and bust" character of the wheat economy i n the development of the r a d i c a l p r o t e s t party. Re a l s o argues that "the p r i c e r e -ceived by the Canadian farmer i s more c l o s e l y determined by world market conditions^ than i n other wheat exporting nations. A s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n e x i s t e d i n the "King Cotton" economy of the American South. Both areas could be u s e f u l l y considered analogous i n the s t r u c t u r e of t h e i r economies to many contemporary l e s s developed s t a t e s . Davies, i n f a c t , uses the analogy to make the s i t u a t i o n i n the pre C i v i l T'ar American South more understandable. R e f e r r i n g to the economic c r i s i s i n cotton i n 1857, he w r i t e s : I t was an epitome of the southern dependence upon the North,- of the dependence of any rav-r m a t e r i a l producing -colony on the f i n a n c i a l and other econ-omic circumstances of the d i v e r s i f i e d "mother country." In 1857 the South was h i t by a panic i n the New York commodity exchange market. . . . This was the f i n a l c r i t i c a l downturn i n the g r a t i f i c a t i o n of Southerners. The growing and now enormous tensions found release i n s e c e s s i o n ! 5 9 Davies has presented other h i s t o r i c a l evidence i n support of h i s J-curve hypothesis on the occurrence of r e v o l u t i o n s . According to the J-curve hypothesis, r e v o l u t i o n s are most probable "when a prolonged period of o b j e c t i v e economic and s o c i a l development i s followed by a short p e r i o d of sharp r e v e r s a l ! " 6 0 - 20 -W o r s l e y , i n h i s s t u d i e s o f m i l l e n a r i a n movements i n M e l a n e s i a , p r o v i d e s an i n t e r e s t i n g example o f t h e e f f e c t s o f 61 e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y . The European s e t t l e r s i n t r o d u c e d a p l a n t a t i o n system o f a g r i c u l t u r e and encouraged c a s h c r o p p i n g among the n a t i v e i n h a b i t a n t s . The f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e demand f o r c o p r a , t h e p r i n c i p a l e x p o r t , were n o t r e a d i l y u n d e r s t o o d and, argues " T o r s l e y , c r e a t e d i n d i v i d u a l and c u l t u r a l s t r e s s . . . . t h e v a g a r i e s o f t h e w o r l d economy appear m y s t e r i o u s , f o r t u i t o u s and u n c o n t r o l l a b l e t o t h e n a t i v e who r e c e i v e s s a y , £ 2 p e r t o n f o r h i s c o p r a p e r y e a r , £8 the n e x t and p o s s i b l y i n o t h e r y e a r s may be u n a b l e t o f i n d a b u y e r a t a l l . Wages and p r i c e s f o r t r a d e goods a r e s u b j e c t t o s i m i l a r f l u c t u a t i o n s . 6 2 Many o f t h e m i l l e n a r i a n movements n o t e d by w o r s l e y r e s u l t e d i n " a g g r e s s i o n and even v i o l e n c e toward European s e t t l e r s , m i s s i o n a r i e s and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . " He makes a s i m i l a r 6 A argument a p p l i c a b l e t o contemporary T h x r d World s t a t e s . H o v i a n d and Se a r s found a s t r o n g p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between poor economic c o n d i t i o n s and h i g h s o c i a l a g g r e s s i o n 65 xn the American s o u t h . In an e c o l o g i c a l a n a l y s i s " t e s t i n g " t h e f r u s t r a t i o n a g g r e s s i o n h y p o t h e s i s , t h e y compared a com-p o s i t e economic i n d i c a t o r (Ayres I n d e x ) , t h e p e r a c r e v a l u e o f c o t t o n , and t h e farm v a l u e o f c o t t o n w i t h t h e number o f Negro l y n c h i n g s and t o t a l l y n c h i n g s from 1882 t o 1930 . S i n c e the a b s o l u t e v a l u e o f c o t t o n and t h e a b s o l u t e numbers o f l y n c h i n g s tended t o d e c r e a s e w i t h " t i m e , d e v i a t i o n s from l i n e a r t r e n d s were i n t e r c o r r e l a t e d . The t e t r a c h o r i c c o r r e -l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s ranged from 0 . 61 t o 0.72. However, a - 21 -r e a n a l y s i s o f t h e i r d a t a by '-lintz d e m o n s t r a t e s t h a t t h e h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n s seem t o be s t a t i s t i c a l a r t i f a c t s "causer", by t h e a r b i t r a r y c h o i c e o f s t r a i g h t l i n e s ( t o e l i m i n a t e t r e n d s ) , 66 which a r e n o t a p p r o p r i a t e t o the data. 1' The use o f t h e t e t r a c h o r i c s t a t i s t i c was a l s o c r i t i c i z e d . D i v i d i n g t h e t o t a l time p e r i o d i n t o segments w i t h i n which f i t s seemed more r e a s o n a b l e and u s i n g n r o d u c t moment c o r r e l a t i o n s , T'antz found s u b s t a n t i a l l y r e d u c e d c o e f f i c i e n t s . I a l s o r e a n a l y z e d t h e s e d a t a u s i n g moving averages t o e l i m i n a t e t h e t r e n d . The p r o d u c t moment c o r r e l a t i o n s were o f t h e same magnitude as t h o s e r e p o r t e d by M i n t z . The i n t r o d u c t i o n o f one, two and t h r e e y e a r time l a g s r e s u l t e d i n s m a l l e r c o r r e l a t i o n s . A u s t i n r l i n k i n g t h e e x p o r t p e r f o r m a n c e o f cocao t o p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y i n Ghana, p r o v i d e s f u r t h e r a n e c d o t a l e v i d e n c e . The passage below i s c i t e d because i t c l e a r l y i l l u s t r a t e s the two s t e p s i n t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d r e l a t i o n s h i p . In 1961 t h e r e was a s e r i o u s check t o t h e economy. A t a time when t h e government was h e a v i l y committed on i t s c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e t h e cocao p r i c e began t o f a l l , and i t v/as o b l i g e d t o draw h e a v i l y on i t s r e s e r v e s . As p a r t o f the measures t a k e n , a h a r s h budget v/as i n t r o d u c e d i n mid J u l y . Government e x p e n d i t u r e was l e f t untouched b u t i n c r e a s e d d u t i e s were l e v i e d on a wide range o f consumer goods i n an attempt t o r a i s e a d d i t i o n a l r evenue. A new system o f pur c h a s e t a x was a l s o adopted, and a compulsory s a v i n g s scheme imposed whereby a l e v y o f 5 p e r c e n t v/as deducted from a l l s a l a r i e d and wage incomes o v e r £120 a y e a r . P r i c e s r o s e s h a r p l y , and the n e t income o f farmers and wage-e a r n e r s a l i k e f e l l . The budget bore h e a v i l y i n p a r t i c u l a r on the s k i l l e d and semi s k i l l e d worker, and a major s t r i k e took p l a c e i n September among the r a i l w a y and ha r b o u r workers i n S e k o n d i - T a k o r a d i . I t was the f i r s t l a r g e s c a l e stoppage s i n c e t h e - 22 -miners s t r i k e of 1955-56 and was based on genuine grievances. But because such a c t i o n was now i l l e g a l under the 1958 I n d u s t r i a l Relations Act, a state of emergency was declared i n the town. Violence broke out between the s t r i k e r s and p o l i c e . . . . The Sekondi s t r i k e was not per-haps a major thr e a t to the regime, but i t was one that might w e l l become so. 6? The 1966 coup d'etat which overthrew Nkrumah has been a l s o a t t r i b u t e d i n p a r t to the d e c l i n e i n cocao proceeds. Bretrton» acknowledge» the " c r i t i c a l " r o l e of f l u c t u a t i n g cocao p r i c e s but he states that Ghana's economic disturbances were i n p a r t the r e s u l t of governmental mismanagement. "To i n s i s t , " he s t a t e s , as Nkrumah d i d that the Ghanian economy was d e t e r i o r a t i n g simply because the consumers of the vrorld's cocao refused to pay higher p r i c e s was something of an exaggeration. . . the c e n t r a l d e f i c i e n c y (was) - Nkrumah himself.68 Coups d'etat i n L a t i n America have a l s o been associated with economic d e t e r i o r a t i o n . Fossum's study of L a t i n American m i l i t a r y coups i s one of the few attempts to deal r e l a t i v e l y s y s t e m a t i c a l l y with the p o l i t i c a l consequences of export v a r i -69 at i o n s . Fossum notes that "most L a t i n American countries r e l y h e a v i l y on one or a fev; products f o r t h e i r incomes and 7 0 are p a r t i c u l a r l y vulnerable to economic f l u c t u a t i o n s . " The greater frequencies of coups during the e a r l y 1930•s and during the period from 1961 to 1963 are explained as fo l l o w s : The f i r s t period covers the great economic depres-s i o n , and the l a s t p e r i o d i s a'period with con-s t a n t l y d e c l i n i n g p r i c e s on raw commodities on the world market. . . . - 23 " I t should be noted," he continues that the lowest frequencies are found during the two world wars, n e i t h e r of which touched L a t i n America d i r e c t l y except by c r e a t i n g a great demand f o r L a t i n American exports and hence an economic boom. "71 The t a b l e Possum i s i n t e r p r e t i n g i s reproduced below. TABLE I I I Number of Coups per Three Year I n t e r v a l s f o r Twenty L a t i n American Countries 1907 - 66 Years No. Years No. 1907-09 4 1937-39 3 1910-12 6 1940-42 0 1913-15 4 1943-45 9 1917-18 1 1946-48 9 1919-21 5 1949-51 5 1922-24 2 1952-54 6 1925-27 4 1955-57 8 1928-30 7 1958-60 2 1931-33 9 1961-63 10 1934-36 6 1964-66 5 T o t a l 105 Source: E g i l Fossum, "Factors Influencing the Occurrence of M i l i t a r y Coups d'Etat i n L a t i n America," Journal of Peace Research, v o l . 4, no. 3 (1967), p. 237. years, I t i s not r e a d i l y apparent from t h i s t a b l e that the war s p e c i f i c a l l y 1939 to 1945, had a s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower - 24 -f r e q u e n c y o f coups and no d a t a a r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e p a p e r t o s u p p o r t t h e s t a t e m e n t t h a t commodity p r i c e s f o r L a t i n A merican e x p o r t s d e c l i n e d so s h a r p l y d u r i n g 1961-1963. F o r t h e p e r i o d 1922-193 8 Fossum does p r e s e n t some e v i -dence. Each y e a r i n t h i s p e r i o d v/as c l a s s i f i e d as e i t h e r an "improvement" o r a " d e t e r i o r a t i o n " y e a r , d e p e n d i n g on whether e x p o r t p r o c e e d s r o s e o r f e l l r e l a t i v e t o t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r . He found t h a t coups v/ere t w i c e as f r e q u e n t d u r i n g " d e t e r i o r -a t i o n " y e a r s . The d a t a and a n a l y s i s p r e s e n t c e r t a i n d i f f i -c u l t i e s , however. In h i s a n a l y s i s , as i n t h e t a b l e r e p r o d u c e d above, Fossum l o o k e d a t t h e c o n t i n e n t as an a g g r e g a t e . G i v e n t h a t e i g h t y p e r c e n t o f the coups d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d o c c u r r e d i n o n l y seven o f t h e twenty c o u n t r i e s , would n o t a more a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i o n be o b t a i n e d i f each c o u n t r y v/ere examined i n d i -v i d u a l l y ? A n a l y z i n g t h e l a t e r p e r i o d , 1951 t o 1963, Fossum does use t h e c o u n t r y , n o t t h e c o n t i n e n t , as t h e u n i t o f 72 a n a l y s i s . With r e f e r e n c e t o t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e , t h e s p e c i f i c l e v e l o f a g g r e g a t i o n i s n o t c l e a r . The y e a r s a r e d e f i n e d a c c o r d i n g t o "the r i s e o r f a l l i n t h e v a l u e o f w o r l d e x p o r t s i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e p r e c e d i n g y e a r " (emphasis 73 added). Whether he i s r e f e r r i n g t o t h e t o t a l v a l u e o f L a t i n American e x p o r t s o r t o t h e t o t a l v a l u e o f w o r l d e x p o r t t r a d e i s p r o b l e m a t i c . In summary, t h e e v i d e n c e i n s u p p o r t o f t h e p r o p o s e d r e l a t i o n s h i p i s ambiguous. E x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y does n o t have gra v e i n t e r n a l economic consequences i n a l l u n d e r d e v e l o p e d - 25 -c o u n t r i e s . There i s considerable s p e c u l a t i o n and anecdotal evidence i n support of the r e l a t i o n s h i p but the r e s u l t s of the few studies examining trade, i n general, and export i n -s t a b i l i t y , s p e c i f i c a l l y , and the amount of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e or the occurrence of p a r t i c u l a r v i o l e n t events are u n s a t i s -f a c t o r y f o r a v a r i e t y of methodological reasons. There does hov/ever seem to be a c o n s i s t e n t l y strong r e l a t i o n s h i p between domestic economic disturbance and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . The E m p i r i c a l Domain and "Data-Making" Procedures In t h i s p o r t i o n of the t h e s i s , the procedures used to measure the v a r i a b l e s w i l l be described and the v a l i d i t y of the measures w i l l be assessed. In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , the hypotheses w i l l be presented and examined using data on forty-seven economically l e s s developed coun t r i e s . Next, the hypotheses w i l l be analyzed w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t groups of coun-t r i e s , s p e c i f y i n g the r e l a t i o n s h i p according to socio-economic region and the type of p o l i t i c a l systems. The primary sources f o r the export proceeds s t a t i s t i c s are the h i s t o r i c a l trade s e r i e s f o r i n d i v i d u a l countries found i n the United Nations Yearbook of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade S t a t i s t i c s . These s t a t i s t i c s are f o r merchandise trade, which the United Nations defines as " a l l goods which add to or sub-t r a c t from the m a t e r i a l resources of a country as a r e s u l t of 74 t h e i r movements i n t o or out of the country." The major exclusions are gold and economic assistance. - 2 6 -A l t h o u g h t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s a r e u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d among the most a c c u r a t e o f n a t i o n a l a c c o u n t s s t a t i s t i c s , t h e r e a r e a number o f s o u r c e s o f e r r o r . Because t h e v a l u e s o f many c o u n t r i e s ' c u r r e n c i e s v a r y o v e r t i m e , t h e p r o c e e d s were co n -v e r t e d i n t o U n i t e d S t a t e s d o l l a r s , t h e most s t a b l e c u r r e n c y . Hov/ever, t h e a p p r o p r i a t e r a t e s o f exchange a r e d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e . The c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r s p r o v i d e d by t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s were used. I n most i n s t a n c e s t h e y a r e t h e o f f i c i a l exchange r a t e s , t h e r e f o r e t h e i r a c c u r a c y i s i n d e e d s u s p e c t . The c o n v e r s i o n i n t o U.S. d o l l a r s p r o b a b l y r e p r e s e n t s t h e l a r g e s t s i n g l e s o u r c e o f e r r o r i n t h e d a t a . A n o t h e r s o u r c e o f e r r o r i s t h a t t h e t r a d e f i g u r e s , which a r e r e p o r t e d by t h e i n d i v i d u a l member c o u n t r i e s , a r e based on d i f f e r e n t d e f i n i t i o n s o f e x p o r t s o r systems o f t r a d e . The two most f r e q u e n t l y used systems o f v a l u a t i o n a r e " s p e c i a l t r a d e " and " g e n e r a l t r a d e . " The main d i f f e r e n c e between t h e two systems i s i n the method o f r e c o r d i n g warehoused and r e -e x p o r t e d goods. Because no method was a v a i l a b l e t o make t h e two systems s t r i c t l y comparable, t h e d i f f e r e n c e s were d i s -r e g a r d e d . S i m i l a r l y , I d i s r e g a r d e d t h e few e x c e p t i o n s i n which e x p o r t s were n o t v a l u e d f . o . b . These s o u r c e s o f e r r o r and t h e e r r o r i n t r o d u c e d by c u r r e n c y c o n v e r s i o n a r e i r r e l e v a n t t o t h e c a l c u l a t i o n and comparison o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y v a l u e s i f i t i s assumed t h a t , f o r each c o u n t r y , the e r r o r i s c o n s t a n t o v e r t i m e . The e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y s c o r e s a r e s t a n d a r d i z e d by t h e use o f p e r c e n t a g e s - 27 -and c a l c u l a t e d on the b a s i s of each country's export p e r f o r -mance over time. In short, the absolute values are not com-pared. Countries f o r which the assumption o f constant e r r o r 75 appeared l e s s warranted were excluded from the a n a l y s i s . Time s e r i e s data, such as that on export proceeds, can be considered as c o n s i s t i n g of three components: long term trend, a short term movement and random f l u c t u a t i o n s . Studies of "trade c y c l e s " are concerned with the long term movement of proceeds, and export i n s t a b i l i t y i s defined i n terms of the short term v a r i a t i o n s . The f i r s t problem i n measuring export i n s t a b i l i t y then i s to separate the two primary components. There are a number of ways of doing t h i s . As Yule and Kendall poin t out: We have to be most c a r e f u l that the r e s i d u a l s do not r e f l e c t the nature of the trend f i t t i n g rather than any i n t r i n s i c property of t h e i r own. In no branch of s t a t i s t i c s do we have to guard so much against p r o j e c t i n g our preconceived ideas i n t o the data by the technique of a n a l y s i s adopted.76 The r e a n a l y s i s by Mintz of the Hovland and Sears data on l y n -chings and cotton p r i c e s should amply demonstrate the dangers. The procedure adopted, t o separate the short term move-ments from the trend, was to use moving averages. Annual trend values were computed using f i v e year moving averages centered upon the middle year. Short term f l u c t u a t i o n s were c a l c u l a t e d by taking the d i f f e r e n c e between the annual trend values and the a c t u a l annual values of export proceeds. The measure of export i n s t a b i l i t y i s the mean of the annual- per-centage deviations from the trend. (The step by step compu-- 28 -t a t i o n p r o c e d u r e i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e IV.) E x p o r t i n s t a -b i l i t y was measured o v e r t h r e e and f i v e y e a r p e r i o d s i n o r d e r t o be comparable w i t h t h e p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e d a t a , which were o n l y a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e s e time p e r i o d s . TABLE IV The F i v e Year Moving Averages Method o f C a l c u l a t i n g E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y : C e y l o n 1961-1965 Year E x p o r t P r o c e e d s ( U . S . M i l l i o n s ) T r e n d D e v i a t i o n (%) E x p o r t I n s t a b . (1961-1965) 1959 368 1960 385 1961 364 372 -8 -2.1 1962 380 377 3 .8 1963 363 382 -19 -5.0 4.1 1964 394 381 13 3.4 1965 409 374 35 9.4 1966 357 1967 348 Macbean a l s o u s e d - t h i s p r o c e d u r e i n h i s s t u d y o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y . He w r i t e s t h a t C o p p o c k 1 s l o g v a r i a n c e measure 7 8 "approximates f i t ] c l o s e l y " b u t he does n o t d i r e c t l y compare the two p r o c e d u r e s . S i n c e t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s ' measure and t h e l o g v a r i a n c e measure a r e s t r o n g l y i n t e r c o r r e l a t e d I a s s e s s e d t h e v a l i d i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e f i v e y e a r moving averages measure by comparing i t t o t h a t o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s . Twelve - 29 -countries were randomly s e l e c t e d and export s t a b i l i t y s c ore, were computed using both methods f o r the 1950-1960 p e r i o d . TABLE V A Comparison of Export i n s t a b i l i t y Measures f o r Twelve C o u n t r i e s : 1950 1960 Country Export I n s t a b i l i t y U n i t e d N a t i o n s 5-Year Moving Method Averages Method Jordan 44.0 23.0 A l b a n i a 22.6 16.4 Nicaragua 17.5 8.3 P a k i s t a n 17.4 12.0 Peru 14.3 9 .2 Ar g e n t i n a 12.5 8.6 B o l i v i a 11.7 13.6 France 11.6 6.7 P o r t u g a l 10.8 7.2 Braz-i-1 10 .5 5.7 Cze c h o s l o v a k i a 9.3 3 .9 a R 6.4 Paraguay o . ~> 0.89 Pearson product moment c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t : The U n i t e d Nations and moving averages measures are a l s o s t r o n g l y c o r r e l a t e d . The use of moving averages does not n e c e s s i t a t e jpigorous assumptions about the shape of the t r e n d . Moving averages "smooth the curve." However, i n some cases moving averages are c l e a r l y i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r measuring export f l u c t u a t i o n s . - 30 -The c a s e o f L i b y a p r o v i d e s an example o f t h e d i s t o r t i o n t h a t can r e s u l t . The e x p o r t s o f L i b y a d u r i n g 1954-1960 ranged between 10.7 and 15.2 m i l l i o n s o f U.S. d o l l a r s . I n 1961 t h e p r o c e e d s i n c r e a s e d s e v e n f o l d and i n 1962 t h e y were more t h a n t w i c e t h e 1961 value.. The moving a v e r a g e s smooth t h e c u r v e b u t i n d o i n g so t h e y i n t e r p r e t t h e 19.59-1960 p e r i o d as one o f v e r y g r e a t i n s t a b i l i t y , whereas i n f a c t i t was one o f l i t t l e v a r i a t i o n f o l l o w e d by a p e r i o d o f e x t r e m e l y r a p i d growth. Cases such as L i b y a were e x c l u d e d from t h i s a n a l y s i s . W h i l e e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y has been d e f i n e d by e c o n o m i s t s i n terms o f s h o r t term d e v i a t i o n s about th e t r e n d , much o f t h e a n e c d o t a l e v i d e n c e a t t e s t i n g t o t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e " l o s s e s " i n e x p o r t p r o c e e d s , n o t s i m p l y v a r i a t i o n . The measure o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y , t h e mean o f t h e a b s o l u t e p e r c e n t a g e d e v i a t i o n s , i g n o r e s t h e t y p e . o f f l u c t u a t i o n i n e x p o r t s . I have d i f f e r e n t i a t e d between e x p o r t v a r i a t i o n and e x p o r t l o s s e s . L o s s e s a r e d e f i n e d as n e g a t i v e d e v i a t i o n s from t h e t r e n d and t h e measure o f e x p o r t . • l o s s e s " i s t h e mean o f t h e n e g a t i v e d e v i a t i o n s . E a r l i e r i t was found t h a t , c o n t r a r y t o e x p e c t a t i o n s , • e c o n o m i c a l l y u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s do n o t e x p e r i e n c e sub-s t a n t i a l l y g r e a t e r e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y t h a n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , nor are t h e y a l l h e a v i l y dependent.upon i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e . - The a p p a r e n t immunity o f u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s " t o the d e t r i m e n t a l economic e f f e c t s o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y c o u l d be dependent upon t h e s i z e o f t h e t r a d e o r i e n t a t i o n . .In o t h e r words the "impact" o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e degree o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y and the impor-t a n c e o f t r a d e t o the economy. As I s t a t e d above, a c o u n t r y w i t h a v e r y s m a l l t r a d e o r i e n t a t i o n and extreme e x p o r t i n -s t a b i l i t y would, a c c o r d i n g t o t h i s argument, be "more immune" t h a n a c o u n t r y w i t h o n l y moderate e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y b u t w i t h a v e r y l a r g e t r a d e o r i e n t a t i o n . To measure t h i s impact o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y . I have used the p r o d u c t o f t h e t r a d e o r i e n t a t i o n and e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y v a l u e s f o r each c o u n t r y . S i m i l a r l y , t h e impact from l o s s e s a r e i n d i c a t e d by t h e p r o -d u c t o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y l o s s e s and t r a d e o r i e n t a t i o n . These v a l u e s a r e s i m p l e t o compute b u t t h e r e i s a g r e a t p o s s i b i l i t y o f measurement e r r o r . Because t h e a b s o l u t e v a l u e s a r e used, a l l t h e s o u r c e s o f e r r o r enumerated above w i t h r e s p e c t t o t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s , a r e r e l e v a n t . F u r t h e r i n a c c u r a c y i s i n t r o d u c e d t h r o u g h t h e measurement o f t r a d e o r i e n t a t i o n by t h e r a t i o o f t o t a l t r a d e t o g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t . As was t h e case w i t h e x p o r t p r o c e e d s , the c o n v e r -s i o n o f n a t i o n a l e s t i m a t e s o f GNP i n t o a common c u r r e n c y u n i t p e r m i t s c o n s i d e r a b l e e r r o r . More i m p o r t a n t , t h e s t a t i s t i c a l d e f i n i t i o n o f GNP i s much more v a r i a b l e t han the d e f i n i t i o n o f e x p o r t p r o c e e d s . There a r e v a r i a t i o n s i n d e f i n i t i o n i n more d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s and an even g r e a t e r a m b i g u i t y between t h e s e and the u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . F o r example, i n " c a p i t a l i s t " c o u n t r i e s , the s e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s t e n d t o be i n c l u d e d and, i n " s o c i a l i s t " c o u n t r i e s , t h e s e a r e o f t e n i g -nored o r u n d e r v a l u e d . I n many un d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s many services are not bought or sold or given a monetary value and, therefore, are g e n e r a l l y excluded, .A s i m i l a r problem a r i s e s i n underdeveloped countries that have a large propor-81 t i o n of t h e i r population i n subsistence a g r i c u l t u r e . There i s probably great inaccuracy i n comparisons of GNP f o r developed and underdeveloped countries but the assumption that the estimates f o r underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s , as a group, are merely biased i s tenuous. For example, the subsistence a g r i c u l t u r a l ''sector" may be overestimated as 8 2 e a s i l y as underestimated. The assumption that the e r r o r i s constant w i t h i n the underdeveloped countries i s l e s s r e a l i s t i c than the assumption that the e r r o r i n an i n d i v i d u a l country's export proceeds i s constant over time. In the l a t t e r case, some c r i t e r i a f o r evaluating the v a l i d i t y of the assumption were provided i n the data source. To compen-sate f o r some of these d e f i c i e n c i e s , impact values were 83 c a l c u l a t e d using d i f f e r e n t estimates of trade o r i e n t a t i o n . However, i n l i g h t of the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of e r r o r , the r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s should be t r e a t e d c a u t i o u s l y . There are a number of published i n d i c a t o r s of p o l i -t i c a l v i o l e n c e and a number of data c o l l e c t i o n s that could 84 be used to construct measures f o r t h i s study. Both are d i f f i c u l t to evaluate r i g o r o u s l y . There are l i m i t e d pub-l i s h e d comparisons of independently gathered and scaled 85 estimates of the extent of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . The p o s s i -b i l i t i e s of convergent v a l i d i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y checks are made l e s s f e a s i b l e because few o f t h e r e a d i l y a c c e s s i b l e e s t i -mates a r e t e m p o r a l l y c o n g r u e n t . F o r example, "deaths from d o m e s t i c group v i o l e n c e " c o l l e c t e d under t h e a u s p i c e s o f t h e D i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f N a t i o n s P r o j e c t were n o t c o l l e c t e d f o r 1961-1962. T h e r e f o r e , a p r e c i s e comparison o f t h e DON e s t i -86 mates w i t h t h o s e o f G u r r v/as i m p r a c t i c a l . L a c k i n g more p r e c i s e means o f comparing th e v a r i o u s measures o f v i o l e n c e and l a c k i n g t h e r e s o u r c e s t o d e v e l o p nev? measures, I e v a l u a t e d the d i f f e r e n t d a t a c o l l e c t i o n s , from which t h e measures were d e r i v e d , i n terms o f two c r i t e r i a . These v/ere t h e number and v a r i e t y o f the s o u r c e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n r e l i e d upon and, a more p r a c t i c a l c r i t e r i o n , t h e number o f u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s i n c l u d e d . U s i n g t h e s e c r i t e r i a , t h e 87 G u r r d a t a were judged t h e b e s t a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s s t u d y . A l t h o u g h G u r r g a t h e r e d most o f h i s i n f o r m a t i o n from t h e New York Times Index, he s c r u t i n i z e d a comprehensive s e r i e s o f o t h e r s o u r c e s such as F a c t s on F i l e , A s i a n R e c o r d e r and A f r i c a n D i g e s t . In c o n t r a s t , the F e i e r a b e n d d a t a bank was c o m p i l e d u s i n g o n l y two s o u r c e s , D e a d l i n e Data and t h e E n c y c l o p e d i a B r i t a n n i c a Yearbooks. Hov/ever, t h e i r i n d e x o f 8 8 p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e c o r r e l a t e s 0.700 w i t h G u r r 1 s f o r 1961-1965. I am a t t r i b u t i n g a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f the u n e x p l a i n e d v a r i -ance t o t h e i n a d e q u a c i e s o f t h e F e i e r a b e n d s • i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s . The DON r e s e a r c h e r s used more s o u r c e s t h a n t h e F e i e r a b e n d s , i n c l u d i n g the New York Times, b u t they r e s t r i c t e d d a t a c o l l e c t i o n t o fewer c o u n t r i e s than e i t h e r t h e F e i e r a b e n d s o r G u r r . - 34 -Gurr d e f i n e d c i v i l v i o l e n c e as f ! a l l c o l l e c t i v e , non-governmental a t t a c k s on persons or p r o p e r t y , r e s u l t i n g i n i n t e n t i o n a l damage t o them, t h a t occur w i t h i n the boundaries 89 of an autonomous or c o l o n i a l p o l i t i c a l u n i t . ' 5 T T i t h the a s s i s t a n c e of Ruttenburg, he developed a complex measure of 90 the ' t o t a l magnitude of c i v i l s t r i f e . " The f i r s t f xve basxc estimates are the p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n i n v o l v e d , the p r o p o r t i o n of the area of the country i n which the v i o l e n c e i s o c c u r r i n g , the number of c a s u a l t i e s , the amount of p r o p e r t y damage and the d u r a t i o n o f the events. These f i v e b a s i c e s t i -mates were then combined i n t o three composite measures; "pervas i v e n e s s , " " i n t e n s i t y , " and "amplitude" of v i o l e n c e . The t o t a l magnitude of c i v i l s t r i f e r e p r e s e n t s the weighted combination of these t h r e e . E s t i m a t e s of t o t a l magnitude are a v a i l a b l e f o r 1961-1963 and 1961-1965. Th i s measure of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i s one of the amount of v i o l e n c e . Many of the anecdotal examples and the more s y s -t e m a t i c s t u d i e s reviewed above were concerned w i t h p a r t i c u l a r types of v i o l e n t events. Rostow examined r i o t s and v i o l e n t demonstrations ? Tanter and M i d l a r s k y and Davies attempted t o e x p l a i n the occurrence of r e v o l u t i o n ; and Fossum analyzed f a c t o r s r e l a t i n g t o the occurrence of m i l i t a r y coups d ' e t a t i n L a t i n America. Rummel, Tanter, Feierabend and Feierabend 91 and F i r e s t o n e and McCormxck, u s i n g f a c t o r a n a l y s i s have shown t h a t there are three r e l a t i v e l y d i s t i n c t types o f v i o l e n t events however. As Fossum argues, f o r example, th e r e may w e l l be a r e l a t i o n s h i p between export f l u c t u a t i o n s and a p a r t i c u l a r - 35 -type of event i n L a t i n America but my a n a l y s i s cannot probe that r e l a t i o n s h i p . The r e l i a n c e of cross n a t i o n a l studies of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e upon the news gathering agencies f o r information has prompted some c r i t i c i s m . As one student of L a t i n American p o l i t i c s has put i t , i t appears that p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y " i s manifested simply by the absence of those i n t e r e s t i n g events 92 that are reported i n the news media." Many relevant events are not recorded at a l l , much l e s s noted, i n the p u b l i c press. This r a i s e s the serious p o s s i -b i l i t y of e r r o r i n the data as a r e s u l t o f underreporting of some events i n p a r t i c u l a r c o u n t r i e s . In other words, are the events recorded i n the press a representative sample of a l l the relevant events? Because the t o t a l population of events i s unknown, the question i s d i f f i c u l t to answer. One way of incr e a s i n g the p r o b a b i l i t y of a representative sample i s to use, as Gurr has, a large number of diver s e news sources. One f a c t o r which could decrease the p r o b a b i l i t y i s the extent of press censorship w i t h i n i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s . I t seems p l a u s i b l e to expect systematic underreporting i n coun-t r i e s with a repressive government and s t r i c t press censor-ship. Gurr, using an index of the degree of press censorship, tested t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y . The c o r r e l a t i o n s between t h i s index and measures of the duration i n t e n s i t y and pervasiveness of c i v i l v i o l e n c e i n d i c a t e d that "more s t r i f e tends to be reported from p o l i t i e s with low press freedom, not l e s s as might be expected." As he also points out, these r e s u l t s "almost - 36 -certainly" r e f l e c t the covariation between economic develop-9 3 ment and press freedom. Because violence i s more "deviant" i n developed countries, I examined the p o s s i b i l i t y that the degree of press censorship i s related to the degree of vio-lence within underdeveloped countries to be used in the 94 analysis below. (See Table VI) The general lack of re l a -tionship indicates that there i s l i t t l e systematic under-statement resulting from press censorship in underdeveloped countries as a whole or in particular regional or p o l i t i c a l groupings of underdeveloped countries. TABLE VI Domestic Violence and the Extent of Press Freedom Sample Total Sample Latin Region Asian Region African Region Domestic 1 9 . 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 - 0 . 0 6 4 (N=47) 0 . 1 4 4 (N=21) - 0 . 2 5 4 (N=13) 0 . 3 4 8 (N=12) Violence 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 5 - 0 . 0 3 8 (N=47) 0 . 1 8 2 ( N » 2 1 ) - 0 . 0 1 6 ( N « 1 3 ) 0 . 0 8 1 (N=12) Sample E l i s t i s t Domestic 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 0.193 (N=13) Violence 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 5 0 . 2 7 5 (N=14) - 0 . 0 1 8 (N=13) 0 . 2 0 1 (N=13) 0 . 2 6 4 <N*7) Centrist j ^ f 1 r, , U " 0 . 1 0 6 Polyarchy ( N = 1 4 ) 1-4. 0 . 2 3 8 Personalist Q<J=13) Another problem concomitant with reliance upon news 9 5 sources i s the lack of detailed information on some events. To supply estimates for missing data on particular events, Gurr used the mean of a l l other countries for the event in question. As he notes, this procedure provided "implausibly high e s t i -37 -96 mates" f o r some e v e n t s and c o u n t r i e s . The c o u n t r i e s whose v a l u e s G u r r c o n s i d e r e d g r o s s l y o v e r e s t i m a t e d were e x c l u d e d from my sample. The Hypotheses and R e s u l t s The f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e r e i s a p o s i t i v e r e l a -t i o n s h i p between the degree o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y and t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n e c o n o m i c a l l y u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . H y p o t h e s i s 1. The g r e a t e r t h e degree o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y e x p e r i e n c e d by an u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r y , t h e g r e a t e r t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n t h a t c o u n t r y . The e v i d e n c e , a n e c d o t a l and s y s t e m a t i c , i n s u p p o r t o f t h i s p r o p o s i t i o n has been r e v i e w e d above. Much o f t h i s e v i d e n c e r e l a t e d t o a p a r t i c u l a r t y p e o f e x p o r t f l u c t u a t i o n , l o s s e s i n e x p o r t p r o c e e d s , I n Ghana, the p r i c e o f an p r o c e e d s from the cocao h a r v e s t d e c l i n e d and s t r i k e s , r i o t s and coup d ' e t a t f o l l o w e d . Fossum h y p o t h e s i z e d a r e l a t i o n s h i p between " d e t e r i o r a t i o n y e a r s " and coups d ' e t a t . The l o s s e s o f p r o c e e d s were c o n s i d e r e d t o be as i m p o r t a n t , o r more i m p o r t a n t , than the f l u c t u a t i o n o f p r o c e e d s p e r s e . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e h y p o t h e t i c a l e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y d a t a f o r two c o u n t r i e s a r e d i s p l a y e d . W h i l e t h e degree o f e x p o r t i n -s t a b i l i t y f o r b o t h c o u n t r y A a n < ^ C o u n t r y B i s t h e same, t h e l o s s e s o f the former a r e c l e a r l y g r e a t e r than t h o s e o f t h e l a t t e r . The two examples j u s t n o t e d and t h e e v i d e n c e d i s c u s s e d - 38 -TABLE VII Hypothetical Export I n s t a b i l i t y Data f o r Two Countries Percentage Deviations from the Trend. Country A Country B Year 1 -3 -3 Year 2 8 -8 Year 3 -12 12 Year 4 -10 10 Year 5 3 3 Export I n s t a b i l i t y 4.3 4.3 Export Losses 5.0 2.8 e a r l i e r would lead one to i n f e r that Country A would s u f f e r greater v i o l e n c e than Country B. Hypothesis I I . The greater the losses i n exports of an under-developed country, the greater the amount of violence i n that country. The evidence l i n k i n g export i n s t a b i l i t y to domestic economic disturbances was "ambiguous" and as I have pointed out the e f f e c t s of export i n s t a b i l i t y on the n a t i o n a l economy may depend upon the "impact" of export i n s t a b i l i t y . That i s , the e f f e c t would vary with the degree of export i n s t a b i l i t y and the importance of trade to the economy. Accepting t h i s - 39 -argument, and g i v e n t h e c o n s i s t e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s between economic d i s t u r b a n c e s and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e , one would e x p e c t a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between the impact o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . H y p o t h e s i s I I I . The orreater t h e impact o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i n an u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r y , t h e g r e a t e r t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n t h a t c o u n t r y . The same r e a s o n i n g extends t o t h e l o s s e s from e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y . H y p o t h e s i s IV. The g r e a t e r t h e impact o f l o s s e s from e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i n an u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r y , t h e g r e a t e r t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n t h a t c o u n t r y . These h y p o t h e s e s were examined i n a c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l c o r r e l a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s o f d a t a f o r f o r t y - s e v e n e c o n o m i c a l l y l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . (The c o u n t r i e s c o n t a i n e d i n t h i s sample a r e l i s t e d i n T a b l e X I I I below.) A l l o f t h e i n d e p e n -d e n t v a r i a b l e s were measured o v e r t h r e e and f i v e y e a r t i m e p e r i o d s , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e p e r i o d s f o r which G u r r and R u t t e n b u r g computed the p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e measures. As a r e s u l t o f t h i s , t h e r e cannot be l e g i t i m a t e i n f e r e n c e about s p e c i f i c y e a r s w i t h i n t h e s e time p e r i o d s . A number o f s t u d i e s i m p l i c i t l y a l l o w e d f o r , o r e x p l i c i t l y i n c l u d e d , t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a time l a g g e d r e l a t i o n s h i p . The h y p o t h e s e s a r e a l s o ex-amined a l l o w i n g f o r one and two y e a r time l a g s . The r e s u l t s o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n a l a n a l y s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e s V I I I , IX, X and X I . A b r i e f i n s p e c t i o n o f t h e s e t a b l e s - 40 -TABLE V I I I E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n F o r t y - S e v e n U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.139 -0.098 (N=47) (N=46) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.164 -0.995 (N=47) (N=46) 1 Year Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.029 0.021 (N=42) (N=41) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 0.052 0.055 (N=42) (N=41) 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.067 -0.060 (N=41) (N=40) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.023 0.073 (N=41) (N=40) - 41 TABLE IX Export Losses and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n Forty-Seven Underdeveloped Countries- Correlation Coefficients Time Laq Export Losses P o l i t i c a l Violence 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean negative deviations Mean squared negative deviations 1 year Mean negative deviations Mean squared negative deviations 2 years Mean negative deviations Mean squared negative deviations -0.189 -0.093 (N=47) (N=46) -0.14 8 -0.082 (N=47) (N=46) -0.046 -0.186 (N=42) (N=41) -0.035 -0.158 (N=42) (N=41) -0.195 -0.241 (N=40) (N=40) -0.269 -0.209 (N=41) (N=40) 42 -TABLE X E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n F o r t y - S e v e n U nderdeveloped C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact P o l i t i c a l v i ° l f n ^ H 1961-1963 1961-1965 None 1 y e a r 2 y e a r s Impact; Impact; Impact; Impact; Impact Impact: mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 1955 mean sq u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 1965 mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 1965 mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 1957 1965 mean deviation::-. 1957 1S65 mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 1957 1965 • 0 .026 •0.142 •0 .048 -0.170 0 .008 -0.180 0.040 0.021 -0.0 84 -0.105 -0.045 -0.056 0.039 -0.075 -0.014 -0.086 0.166 0.023 0.136 0.050 0.108 •0.035 0.036 -0.056 - 43 -TABLE XI Impact o f L o s s e s from E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n F o r t y - S e v e n U n d e r d e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s r C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Laa E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e y ~ 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Impact l o s s e s ; Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 -0.095 -0.022 (N=43) (N=43) 1965 -0.170 -0.075 (N=47) (N=46) Impact L o s s e s : Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 1957 -0.058 -0.070 (N=43) (N=43) 1965 -0.153 -0.086 (N=47) (N=46) 1 y e a r Impact L o s s e s s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 -0.084 -0.117 (N=40) (N=40) 1965 -0.080 -0.190 (N=42) (N=41) Impact L o s s e s ; Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 -0.077 -0.113 (N=40) (N=40) 1965 -0.073 -0.172 (N=42) (N=40) 2 y e a r s Impact L o s s e s ; Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 -0,267 -0.096 (N=39) (N=39) 1965 -0.261 . -0.194 (N=41) <N=40) Impact L o s s e s : Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 1957 -0.307 -0.128 (N=39) (N=39) 1965 -0.304 -0.190 (N=40) (N=40) i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e r e i s l i t t l e o r no c o v a r i a t i o n between ex-p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y , e x p o r t l o s s e s , e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i mpact and t h e amount o f p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . Most o f the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e c l o s e t o z e r o . J u d g i n g from t h e s i g n s o f t h e l a r g e s t c o e f f i c i e n t s ( T a b l e s IX, XI) t h e r e appears t o be a s l i g h t n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between e x p o r t l o s s e s and impact c lo33ea frcrc e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . The f i r s t f o u r h y p o t h e s e s can be unambiguously r e j e c t e d , whether t h e r e a r e z e r o r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h i n i n d e p e n d e n t l y s p e c i f i e d subsamples i s , hov/ever, a n o t h e r q u e s t i o n . S p e c i f i c a t i o n o f R e s u l t s ; S o c i o Economic Region and Type o f P o l i t i c a l System Hypotheses I through IV were f o r m u l a t e d on t h e assumption t h a t t h e p r o p o s e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s would h o l d f o r a l l e c o n o m i c a l l y u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , - r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e g e o g r a p h i c , s o c i o economic and c u l t u r a l r e g i o n and t y p e o f p o l i t i c a l system. D e m o n s t r a t i n g t h a t t h e r e i s a l a c k o f s u p p o r t f o r t h e s e hypo-t h e s e s s h o u l d n o t s i g n a l the c o m p l e t i o n o f the a n a l y s i s . As S e l v i n , f o r one, p o i n t s out, the assumption i n d o i n g so i s t h a t i f t h e r e i s no c o v a r i a t i o n between two v a r i a b l e s when a l l o t h e r v a r i a b l e s a r e n o t c o n t r o l l e d , t h e r e w i l l be no c o v a r i -97 a t i o n when o t h e r f a c t o r s a r e c o n t r o l l e d o r ta k e n xnto a c c o u n t . T h i s assumption i s n o t always c o r r e c t and s h o u l d be examined more c l o s e l y . The sample o f f o r t y - s e v e n u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s was s u b d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e r e l a t i v e l y homogeneous s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e g i o n s . These r e g i o n s a r e A f r i c a , A s i a and L a t i n A m e r i c a , and, w i t h few e x c e p t i o n s , t h e y c o r r e s p o n d c l o s e l y w i t h common 99 g e o g r a p h i c a l d i v i s i o n s . The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f c o u n t r i e s was b a s e d , i n p a r t , upon R u s s e t t ' s i n d u c t i v e l y d e f i n e d r e g i o n s o f " s o c i o c u l t u r a l homogeneity. U s i n g f a c t o r a n a l y s i s .. R u s s e t t r e d u c e d f i f t y - f o u r s o c i a l , economic and demographic v a r i a b l e s i n t o f i v e b a s i c d i m e n s i o n s . A n o t h e r f a c t o r a n a l y s i s was p e r f o r m e d on the v a r i a b l e s most s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each d i m e n s i o n i n o r d e r t o compute f a c t o r s c o r e s f o r each o f t h e e i g h t y - f o u r c o u n t r i e s i n h i s sample on each d i m e n s i o n . The c o u n t r i e s were then grouped i n t o r e g i o n s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e f a c t o r s c o r e s . Because R u s s e t t d i d n o t i n c l u d e a number o f c o u n t r i e s t h a t a r e i n my sample, some o f t h e assignments h e r e a r e based on e d u c a t e d guesswork. R u s s e t t ' s p r i m a r y e x c l u s i o n s were A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s which became i n d e p e n d e n t a f t e r 1958. R a t h e r than i n c l u d e them i n R u s s e t t ' s A f r o - A s i a n r e g i o n , t h e y were 101 grouped i n t o a s e p a r a t e A f r i c a n r e g i o n . The s m a l l s i z e o f my sample n e c e s s i t a t e d o t h e r changes. R u s s e t t ' s L a t i n American and Semi-developed L a t i n r e g i o n s were combined t o p r o v i d e a l a r g e r number o f c a s e s f o r s t a t i s t i c a l m a n i p u l a t i o n . T h i s change and minor r e v i s i o n s t h a t a r e n o t e d i n T a b l e X I I were n e c e s s a r y and appear r e a s o n a b l e . The sample was a l s o grouped a c c o r d i n g t o t h e t y p e o f p o l i t i c a l system; " p o l y a r c h i c , " " e l i t i s t , " " c e n t r i s t , " and " p e r s o n a l i s t . " These g r o u p i n g s were d e r i v e d from a Q f a c t o r - 46 -TABLE XII Sample C o u n t r i e s C l a s s i f i e d A c c o r d i n g t o R e g i o n and P o l i t i c a l System Type C o u n t r y Region P o l i t i c a l C o u n t r y Region P o l i t i c a l System System A f g a n i s t a n A r g e n t i n a B o l i v i a B r a z i l Burma Cambodia C e y l o n C h i l e C o l ombia C o s t a R i c a Cuba Dominican R e p u b l i c Ecuador E l S a l v a d o r E t h i o p i a Ghana Greece Guatemala Honduras I n d i a I n d o n e s i a I r a q Kenya L i b e r i a A • 1 Asxan C e n t r i s t M alagasy A f r i c a n E l i t i s t L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t M a l a y s i a A s i a n P o l y a r c h i c L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c M e xico L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c E l i t i s t 3 L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c Morocco A f r i c a n A s i a n E l i t i s t N i c a r a g u a L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t A s i a n l E l i t i s t P a k i s t a n A s i a n E l i t i s t A s i a n P o l y a r c h i c Panama L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c Paraguay L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c P e ru L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c P h i l i p p i n e s L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c L a t i n C e n t r i s t P o r t u g a l S i e r r a L a t i n i C e n t r i s t L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t J Leone A f r i c a n , E l i t i s t L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t Sudan A f r i c a n E l i t i s t L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t S y r i a A s i a n P e r s o n a l i s t A f r i c a n C e n t r i s t Taiwan A s i a n C e n t r i s t 2 A f r i c a n x E l i t i s t T h a i l a n d A s i a n ^ P e r s o n a l i s t Western P o l y a r c h i c Togo A f r i c a n , E l i t i s t L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t T u n i s i a A f r i c a n E l i t i s t L a t i n P e r s o n a l i s t T u rkey A s i a n , P o l y a r c h i c A s i a n P o l y a r c h i c Uganda A f r i c a n E l i t i s t A s i a n E l i t i s t UAR A f r i c a n C e n t r i s t A s i a n P e r s o n a l i s t Uruguay L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c A f r i c a n x E l i t i s t V e n e z u e l a L a t i n P o l y a r c h i c A f r i c a n x C e n t r i s t Not i n c l u d e d i n R u s s e t t , I n t e r n a t i o n a l Regions and t h e I n t e r -n a t i o n a l System: A Study o f P o l i t i c a l E c o l o g y , C h i c a g o , Rand M c N a l l y , 1967, pp. 24-25. 2 Not i n c l u d e d i n Banks and Gregg, "Grouping P o l i t i c a l Systems: Q-Factor A n a l y s i s o f A C r o s s P o l i t y S u r v e y , " American B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n t i s t , v o l . 9 (November 1965). pp. 3-6. C l a s s i f i e d as " p o l y a r c h i c " i n I b i d . - 47 -a n a l y s i s by Banks and Gregg o f t h e p o l i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s from 102 A C r o s s - P o l i t y S u r v e y . U n l i k e t h e a g g r e g a t e d a t a u s e d by R u s s e t t t h e s e v a r i a b l e s a r e : ; s o f t f " g e n e r a l l y c o n s i s t i n g o f d i c h o t o m i z e d o r t r i c h o t o m i z e d p o l i t i c a l l y r e l e v a n t c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s s uch as "freedom o f group o p p o s i t i o n , " " a r t i c u l a t i o n by non a s s o c i a t i o n a l g r o u p s / ' " c h a r i s m a , " and " p e r s o n a l i s m o . " There i s a g e n e r a l l a c k o f "hard" d a t a on t h e o r e t i c a l l y r e l e -v a n t v a r i a b l e s i n c o m p a r a t i v e p o l i t i c s so t h a t t h e jud g e m e n t a l approach used i n A C r o s s - P o l i t y Survey must be r e l i e d upon. B r i e f l y , t h e " p o l y a r c h i c " g r o up, w i t h few e x c e p t i o n s , c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d " d e m o c r a t i c . " The " e l i t i s t : ' group l a r g e l y o v e r l a p s w i t h t h e A f r i c a n r e g i o n a l group. These s t a t e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d as h a v i n g " r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l ' modernizing e l i t e s ' " who a r e "attemp-t i n g t o b r i n g about r a p i d and r a d i c a l s o c i a l change. . ." The s m a l l e s t group i n t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t h e " c e n t r i s t " group which c o n s i s t s o f " t o t a l i t a r i a n , s e m i - t o t a l i t a r i a n , and a u t h o r i t a r i a n 103 r egimes." Banks and Gregg use " s p o r a d i c a l l y a u t h o r i t a r i a n " as an a l t e r n a t i v e t o " p e r s o n a l i s t . " These " p e r s o n a l i s t " n a t i o n s a r e l a r g e l y L a t i n . ' ' " ^ M inor changes were made i n t h e assignment o f c o u n t r i e s t o s p e c i f i c g r o u p i n g s . These v/ere made on t h e b a s i s o f com-ments by Banks and Gregg i n t h e i r paper and t h e r e v i s i o n s made by o t h e r s who have used the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y G u r r , 1 ^ and W i l k e n f e l d . F o r example, a l t h o u g h t h e Dominican R e p u b l i c l o a d s h i g h l y on t h e p o l y a r c h i c f a c t o r , Banks and Gregg - 48 -considered t h i s as a r e s u l t of coding e r r o r i n the o r i g i n a l study. Following Gurr, the Dominican Republic was regrouped i n t o the " p e r s o n a l i s t " category. Other changes are noted i n Table' XII. To provide a c r i t e r i o n f o r evaluating the r e l i a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y of these groupings, I compared the Banks and Gregg assessment of "polyarchy," measured i n terms of the loading of each country on the "polyarchy" f a c t o r , with other independent judgements of p o l i t i c a l democracy i n l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s . The r e s u l t s of Fitzgibbon's p o l l i n g of L a t i n 107 American experts were used. These have the advantage of providing scores f o r d i f f e r e n t periods of time, therefore per-m i t t i n g evaluation of the s t a b i l i t y of the degree of polyarchy across time. The data are presented i n Table XIII. The high i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s and the s i g n i f i c a n t l y large d i f f e r e n c e i n the mean "democratic achievement" scores i n d i c a t e that these groupings are r e l a t i v e l y homogeneous and do not change s i g -n i f i c a n t l y with time. There i s l i t t l e evidence to suggest the strength and d i r e c t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o r p a r t i c u l a r groups of coun-t r i e s . The anecdotal evidence, r e l a t i n g export i n s t a b i l i t y export losses and economic disturbances to p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e , would seem to suggest that p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x i s t w i t h i n "non-democratic" c o u n t r i e s . T h i s , however, does not provide a f i r m basis f o r p r e d i c t i o n . S i m i l a r l y , with s o c i o -economic regions, I cannot s p e c i f y , f o r example, that the - 49 -TABLE XIII A Comparison of Two Measures of "Democracy" Group Country Democratic 1960 Achievement 1965 Polyarchy Factor Loading Personalist Polyarchic Polyarchic Polyarchic Polyarchic Polyarchic Centrist Personalist Personalist Personalist Personalist Personalist Polyarchic Personalist Personalist Personalist Personalist Polyarchic Polyarchic Argentina Bolivia B r a z i l Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Ecuador E l Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela 704.5 439 648.5 741.5 651.5 768 452 556. 508. 483, 309, 452 664 370.5 519.5 284 562.5 785 611.5 ,5 .5 ,5 ,5 ,5 .5 ,5 662 401 574, 755 638, 781, 381 448 510.5 437 248 423.5 674 420 542.5 331 556 781.5 665 -.539 -.573 -.616 -.741 -.656 -.807 -.171 -.536 -.399 -.258 -.488 -.650 -.431 -.587 -.316 -.481 -.-&«-?--.637 -.399 Spearman Rank Order Correlations 1 2 3 1. Democratic Achievement 1960 1.0 2. Democratic Achievement 1965 0.98 1.0 3. Polyarchy Factor Loading 0.85 0.87 1.0 Mean Scores on "Democratic Achievement" for Personalist and Polyarchic Countries 1960 1965 Personalist mean score 475.1 457.9 Polyarchic mean score 663.6 658.8 Sources: Russell H. Fitzgibbon, "Measuring Democratic Change in Latin America," The Journal of P o l i t i c s , vol. 29 (February 1967), pp. 129-166 (Reprinted "Tn John E. Mueller, ed., Approaches to Measurement in International Relations: A Non Evangelical Survey, New York, Appleton -Century-Crofts, 1969, pp. 253-282.) Arthur S. Banks and P h i l l i p Gregg, "Grouping P o l i t i c a l Systems: Q-Factor Analysis of A Cross Polity Survey," The American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 5 (November 1965) , p. 4. '• - 50 -r e l a t i o n s h i p between vi o l e n c e and export losses w i l l be strongly p o s i t i v e f o r the L a t i n group and s t r o n g l y negative f o r the Asian group. Therefore, the hypotheses are simply that the r e l a t i o n s h i p s with p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e w i l l vary de-pending upon the socio-economic region and type of p o l i t i c a l system. Hypothesis V. The c o r r e l a t i o n between export i n s t a b i l i t y and the p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e v a r i e s depending upon the socio-economic region or the type of p o l i t i c a l system. Hypothesis VI. The c o r r e l a t i o n between export i n s t a b i l i t y losses and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e v a r i e s depending upon the socio-economic region and the type of p o l i t i c a l system. Hypothesis VII. The c o r r e l a t i o n between export i n s t a b i l i t y impact and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e v a r i e s depending upon the socio-economic region and the type of p o l i t i c a l system. Hypothesis V I I I . The c o r r e l a t i o n between the losses of export i n s t a b i l i t y impact and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e v a r i e s depending upon the socio-economic region and the type of p o l i t i c a l system. Like the previous four hypotheses, these were examined using c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l c o r r e l a t i o n . Not a l l of the tab l e s gen-erated w i l l be discussed i n d e t a i l . However, the methodologi-c a l problems noted i n p a r t i c u l a r tables are common to many of them. The tables not reported i n the text below can be found i n the appendices. - 51 -In the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of a zero r e l a t i o n s h i p , the p a t t e r n of c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i s o f p a r t i c u l a r importance. To a i d i n e v a l u a t i n g the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t s w i l l be used. Much of the c o n t r o v e r s y , concerning the use and misuse of s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t s , i s i r r e -l e v a n t when c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s are computed. The s i z e and s i g n of the c o e f f i c i e n t i n d i c a t e the e x t e n t and d i r e c t i o n o f c o v a r i a t i o n . That i s , t h e r e i s l e s s danger of c o n f u s i n g s t a t i s t i c a l w i t h s u b s t a n t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e o r importance. ' - i t h a s m a l l , and i n many cases, f l u c t u a t i n g number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s , the s i z e of the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t may be d e c e p t i v e . The t e s t s p r o v i d e a simple means of a s s e s s i n g the " r e a l i t y " o f the observed r e l a t i o n s h i p , as opposed to the hyp o t h e s i s t h a t i t i s a product of chance. In s h o r t , the t e s t s p r o v i d e e v i -dence r e l e v a n t t o the e l i m i n a t i o n of one p l a u s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s which t h r e a t e n s i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y . They are not 108 used t o e i t h e r " s a n c t i f y o r condemn : a r e l a t i o n s h i p . W i t h i n the A f r i c a n group o f c o u n t r i e s , there i s a mod-e r a t e p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between export i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e when one and two year time l a g s are i n t r o -duced (Table XIV). Among the L a t i n c o u n t r i e s t h e r e i s a con-t r a r y tendency. While the simultaneous c o r r e l a t i o n s i n d i c a t e a near zero r e l a t i o n s h i p , the time lagged c o r r e l a t i o n s i n d i -c ate a weak nega t i v e tendency (see Table XV). - 52 -TABLE XIV E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A f r i c a n C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y P o l i t i c a l 1961-1963 V i o l e n c e 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.215 0.160 (N=12) (N=12) Mean sq u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.261 0.014 (N=12) (N=12) 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.449 0.618 (N=7) (N=7) Mean sq u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 0.421 0.701* (N=7) (N=7) 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.502 0.845** (N=7) (N=7) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 0.499 0.763* (N=7) (N=7) * p » < .05 ** P = < -01 - 53 -TABLE XV Export Instability and P o l i t i c a l Violence in Latin Countries: Correlation Coefficients T l - e L a g E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y ggfig? ^lltT-lseS None Mean deviations 0 .225 (N=21) 0.059 (N=20) Mean squared deviations 0.209 (N=21) 0.153 (N=20) 1 year Mean deviations -0.321 (N=21) -0.283 (N=21) Mean squared deviations -0.320 (N=21) -0.267 (N=21) 2 years Mean deviations -0.360 (N=21) -0.270 (N=21) Mean squared deviations -•0.337 (N=21) -0.238 (N=21) - 54 -TABLE XVI E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A s i a n C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag Export Insta b i l i t y P o l i t i c a l Violence 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean deviations -0.313 (N=13) -0.313 (N=13) Mean squared deviations -0.360 (N=13) -0.265 (N=13) 1 year Mean deviations 0.606* (N=12) 0.188 (N=12) Mean squared deviations 0.608* (N=12) 0.214 (N=12) 2 years Mean deviations 0.167 (N=12) -0.108 (N=ll) Mean squared deviations 0.249 (N=12) -0.151 (N=ll) * p = < . 05 The relationship between export i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l violence i s not at a l l clear in Asian countries. With no time lag, the tendency i s sl i g h t l y negative. For the 1961-1965 period of violence, the coefficients indicate a zero relation-ship with one and two year lags. The high coefficients for the three year period and one year time lag however, indicate a strong positive relationship. At best, the correlations i n -dicate a weak positive correlation. - 55 -A n a l y s i s o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l systems a l s o i l l u s t r a t e s t h a t the e x t e n t and d i r e c t i o n o f t h e c o v a r i a t i o n depends upon c o n t e x t . I n t h e p o l y a r c h i c c o u n t r i e s t h e r e i s a s t r o n g n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n . A l l o f the c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e f i v e y e a r measures o f i n s t a b i l i t y and v i o l e n c e a r e , w i t h a one and two y e a r l a g , s t a t i s t i c a l l y and s u b s t a n t i v e l y s i g n i f i c a n t . The c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e t h r e e y e a r p e r i o d , a l t h o u g h s m a l l e r , a r e c o n s i s t e n t l y n e g a t i v e (see T a b l e X V I I ) . TABLE XVII E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y a r c h i c C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.113 (N=14) -0.016 (N=14) Mean sq u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 0.079 (N=14) 0.080 (N=14) 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.294 (N=14) -0.628* (N=14) Mean squar e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.239 (N=14) -0.591* (N=14) 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.397 (N-14) -0.569* (N=14) * p = < .05 - 56 -The fact that there i s a negative relationship within the polyarchic group of countries coincides with e a r l i e r specu-lation about the specification according to p o l i t i c a l system type. Based on the lack of anecdotal examples relating export i n s t a b i l i t y to violence in "democratic" countries. I speculated that the relationship would tend to be positive within "non democratic" countries. Following th i s , I combined the authori-tarian countries (the centrist, e l i t i s t and personalist groups) into a "non polyarchic" category. Testing the hypothesis for this category provides no evidence to confirm the speculation There i s a zero relationship between export i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l violence in "closed" p o l i t i c a l systems (see Table XVIII) . TABLE XVIII Export Insta b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l Violence in "Non Polyarchic" Countries; Correlation Coefficients Time Lag Export Instability P o l i t i c a l 1961-1963 Violence 1961-1965 None Mean deviations -0.207 (N=33) -0.112 (N=32) Mean squared deviations -0.233 (N=33) -0.129 (N=32) 1 year Mean deviations 0.149 (N=28) 0.264 (N=27) Mean squared deviations 0.174 (N=28) 0.286 (N=27) 2 years Mean deviations 0.102 (N=27) 0.137 (N=26) Mean squared deviations 0.140 (N=27) 0.090 (N=26) - 57 -E x a m i n i n g t h e d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f " c l o s e d " p o l i t i c a l systems s e p a r a t e l y , r e v e a l s a weak p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p f o r t h e p e r s o n a l i s t c o u n t r i e s w i t h one and two y e a r t i m e l a g s . The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s computed w i t h th e f i v e y e a r measures range from 0.332 t o 0.381. The c o e f f i c i e n t s com-p u t e d f o r t h e s h o r t e r time p e r i o d a r e n e a r z e r o . W h i l e the c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e l o n g e r time p e r i o d have te n d e d t o be l a r g e r , i t would be i n c o r r e c t t o i n f e r t h a t t h e y ar e a r t i f i c i a l l y i n f l a t e d because o f the l e n g t h o f t h e time p e r i o d . Time, o f c o u r s e , i s a " m o d i f i a b l e u n i t " and t h e manner i n which i t i s m o d i f i e d can s u b s t a n t i a l l y a f f e c t t h e 109 s i z e o f the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t . Y u l e and K e n d a l l , f o r example, have de m o n s t r a t e d t h a t t h e way g e o g r a p h i c u n i t s a r e m o d i f i e d o r a g g r e g a t e d may r a i s e the c o r r e l a t i o n o f d i f -f e r e n t c r o p y i e l d s w i t h i n them from h e a r z e r o t o 0 . 9 9 0 . X i 0 Robinson d e m o n s t r a t e d the same phenomena i n h i s c l a s s i c paper on t h e " e c o l o g i c a l f a l l a c y . - ; i i X The i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i s t h a t t h e s e m o d i f i c a t i o n s r e s u l t e d i n fewer c a s e s f o r a n a l y s i s . In my c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s i s however, t h e m o d i f i c a t i o n o f time 112 does n o t r e d uce the number o f c a s e s o r u n i t s o f a n a l y s i s . The c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the e l i t i s t group p r e s e n t a c o n -f l i c t i n g p i c t u r e . W h i l e the s i m u l t a n e o u s c o r r e l a t i o n s i n d i -c a t e a weak n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p , t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f time l a g s p r o d u c e s p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t s . None o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t and t h e r e d u c t i o n o f t h e number o f c a s e s because o f m i s s i n g d a t a may have a f f e c t e d them con-s i d e r a b l y . - 58 -TABLE XIX E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P e r s o n a l i s t C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.059 (N=13) 0.063 (N=13) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 0.027 (N=13) 0.065 (N=13) 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.102 (N=13) 0.381 (N=13) Mean sq u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.090 (N=13) 0.332 (N=13) 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.096 (N=13) 0.376 (N=13) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 0.145 (N=13) 0.375 (N=13) - 59 -TABLE XX Export I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n E l i t i s t C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag Export I n s t a b i l i t y P o l i t i c a l 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 V i o l e n c e 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 5 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s - 0 . 3 6 9 (N=13) - 0 . 0 1 7 (N=13) Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s - 0 . 4 0 2 (N=13) - 0 . 0 8 5 (N«13) 1 year Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.586 (N=10) 0 . 1 4 5 (N=9) Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 0 . 5 3 2 (N=10) 0.136 (N=9) 2 years Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.156 (N=9) 0.228 (N=8) Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 0 . 1 3 1 (N=9) 0 . 1 8 0 (N=8) The c o v a r i a t i o n between export l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e a l s o v a r i e s depending upon the socio-economic r e g i o n and type of p o l i t i c a l system. The tendency w i t h i n the L a t i n and A s i a n groups i s i n the negat i v e d i r e c t i o n but none of the c o e f f i c i e n t s are s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . The c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the A f r i c a n group do not p o r t r a y an unambiguous p i c t u r e . While the c o e f f i c i e n t s computed w i t h the three year measures are c l o s e t o ze r o , those computed w i t h the f i v e year measures i n d i c a t e a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p . (The Tables of c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s can be found i n Appendix I.) - i60 -TABLE XXI E x p o r t L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y a r c h i c and "Non P o l y a r c h i c " C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Laq E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 P o l y a r c h i c C o u n t r i e s None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.048 (N*14) 0.022 (N=14) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 0.132 (N=14) 0.085 (N=14) 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.291 (N=14) -0.632* (N=14) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.262 (N=14) -0.597* (N=14) 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.330 (N=14) -0.686** (N=14) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.416 CN»14J -0.620* <N=14) "Non P o l y a r c h i c ' - C o u n t r i e s None Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.207 (N=33) -0.117 (N=32) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.233 (N=33) -0.109 (N=32) 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s 0.029 (N=28) -0.071 (N=27) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 0.046 (N=28) -0.034 (N=27) 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0.148 (N=26) -0.101 (N=26) Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s -0.218 (N=27) -0.076 (N=26) * p = < .05 ** P = < .01 - 61 -TABLE XXII Export Losses and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n Pe r s o n a l i s t Countries? C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag Export Losses P o l i t i c a l 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 3 Violence 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 5 None Mean deviations - 0 . 1 6 3 (N=13) 0 . 1 6 1 (N=13) Mean squared deviations - 0 . 0 5 9 (N=13) 0 . 1 4 5 (N=13) 1 year Mean deviations 0 . 1 6 6 (N=13) 0 . 5 9 7 * (N=13) Mean squared deviations 0 . 1 6 3 (N=13) 0 . 5 8 9 * (N=13) 2 years Mean deviations 0 . 1 1 5 (N=13) 0 . 3 4 8 (N=13) Mean squared deviations 0 . 1 3 4 (N=13) 0 . 4 8 1 (N=13) * p= < . 0 5 - 62 -The p a t t e r n o f c o v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l systera groups i s s i m i l a r t o the p a t t e r n observed f o r e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y . The tendency w i t h i n the p o l y a r c h i c group i s c l e a r l y n e g a t i v e , w h i l e the tendency i n n o n p o l y a r c h i c c o u n t r i e s i s near z e r o . The time lagged c o r r e l a t i o n s between l o s s e s and v i o l e n c e are p o s i t i v e f o r p e r s o n a l i s t c o u n t r i e s . The p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e , however, s i g n i f i c a n t s u b s t a n t i v e l y and s t a t i s t i c a l l y o n l y f o r the l a r g e r time p e r i o d s . The c o r -r e l a t i o n s f o r the t h r e e y e ar measures are i n s i g n i f i c a n t . The tendency w i t h i n the e l i t i s t group i s n e g a t i v e (see Appendix I D . While the e x t e n t of v a r i a t i o n i s l e s s than t h a t found w i t h export i n s t a b i l i t y and export l o s s e s as independent v a r i a b l e s , the r e l a t i o n s h i p between export i n s t a b i l i t y impact and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e does v a r y w i t h i n the sub-samples. W i t h i n the L a t i n and A s i a n subgroups, th e r e are no s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . There i s a d i s c e r n i b l e n e g a t i v e tendency i n the L a t i n c o u n t r i e s , but no d e f i n i t e tendency i n the A s i a n c o u n t r i e s . Among the A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s t h e r e appears t o be, d e s p i t e the s m a l l number of cases, a p o s i t i v e tendency w i t h time l a g s (see Appendix I I I ) . - S3 -TABLE XXIII E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y a r c h i c C o u n t r i e s ? C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1951-1963 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14) 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14) 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=13) 1965 (N=14) •0.114 •0.056 •0.096 -0.030 -0.004 -0.040 -0.471 -0 .447 -0.393 -0 .381 -0.362 -0.317 -0.507 -0.515 -0.442 -0.480 -0.481 -0.418 0.203 0.103 -0.008 0.188 0.123 0.070 -0.235 -0.337 -0.419 -0.380 -0.448 -0.500 -0.152 -0.251 •0.360 -0.315 -0.387 -0.450 - 64 -The r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h i n t h e p o l y a r c h i c group i s moder-a t e i n s i z e and n e g a t i v e i n d i r e c t i o n ( T a b l e X X I I I ) . The time l a g g e d c o r r e l a t i o n s computed w i t h t h e f i v e y e a r measures a r e a l s o moderate i n s i z e w i t h i n t h e p e r s o n a l i s t c o u n t r i e s b u t p o s i t i v e i n s i g n . However, t h o s e computed w i t h t h e t h r e e y e a r measures shov; a l a c k o f c o v a r i a t i o n ( T a b l e XXIV) . TABLE XXIV E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n P e r s o n a l i s t C o u n t r i e s C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact P o l i t i c a l 1961-1963 V i o l e n c e 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) 0.138 -0.094 0.005 0.206 0.311 0.165 Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) 0.072 -0.100 -0.001 0.149 0.145 0.134 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) -0.054 -0.134 -0.101 0.350 0.548* 0.290 Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) -0.061 -0.132 -0.092 0.326 0.548* 0.289 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) I960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) 0.116 0.021 0.034 0.353 0.442 0.280 Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) 0.150 0.079 0.100 0.365 0.552* 0.311 - 65 -The i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s of the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the two time periods may be the r e s u l t of e r r o r i n the p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e measure. They also suggest the i n f l u e n c e 113 of "extraneous h i s t o r i c a l " f a c t o r s . Unfortunately these complexities cannot be explored with the present data. The p r o b a b i l i t y of measurement e r r o r i s more acute w i t h i n s p e c i f i c time periods. As i t was pointed out above, the export i n s t a b i l i t y impact and losses from export i n s t a b i -l i t y impact measures are most vulnerable to d i s t o r t i o n and error. This i s because the absolute values of imports, exports and gross n a t i o n a l product are used i n the c a l c u l a t i o n . D i f -f e r e n t estimates of GNP were used to p a r t i a l l y ecounteract 114 t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y or e r r o r . In Table XXIV the l a r g e r co-e f f i c i e n t s are based upon the " I 9 6 0 " estimate of export i n -s t a b i l i t y impact. This may r e f l e c t the temporal d i f f e r e n c e s i n the estimates or e r r o r . The other c o e f f i c i e n t s , however, are s i m i l a r i n s i z e and support the conclusion that there i s a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h i n the p e r s o n a l i s t group. Within the e l i t i s t group the opposite i s the case and measurement e r r o r appears more s i g n i f i c a n t than temporal d i f f e r e n c e s . Tfhile a l l the c o e f f i c i e n t s computed with the "1960" estimate are s t a t i s -t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t and very l a r g e , those computed with the "1957" and "1965" estimates i n d i c a t e a zero r e l a t i o n s h i p (see Table X X V ) . Combining the "closed" p o l i t i c a l systems i n t o the non p o l y a r c h i c category a l s o produces a zero r e l a t i o n s h i p (Appendix I I I ) . - 66 -TABLE XXV Export I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l Violence i n E l i t i s t Countries: C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag Export I n s t a b i l i t y Impact None 1 ysar 2 years Mean deviations 1957 (N=10) 1960 (N= 8) 1965=(N=13) Mean squared deviations 1957 (N=10) 1960 (N= 8) 1965 (N=13) Mean deviations 1957 (N= 9) 1960 (N= 8) 1965 (N=10) Mean squared deviations 1957 (N= 9) 1960 (N= 8) 1965 (N=10) Mean d e v i a t i o n 1957 (N= 8) 1960 (N= 7) 1965 (N= 9) Mean squared deviations 1957 (N= 8) 1960 (N= 7) 1965 (N= 9) P o l i t i c a l Violence 1961-1963 1961-1965 •0.202 0.200 •0.420 -0.238 0.251 -0.448 0.436 327 ,449 0.541 0.435 0.535 0.047 0.279 0.065 0.092 0.482 0.088 •0.221 0.765* -0.121 -0.261 0.800** -0.147 0.090 0.823** 0.060 0.067 0.948** 0.089 -0.019 0.784* 0.024 0.039 0.801* 0.075 * p = < .05 ** p = < .01 - 67 -The r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the losses from export i n s t a -b i l i t y impact and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e , w i t h i n the socio-economic regions and p o l i t i c a l systems, follow the pattern observed above with the other independent v a r i a b l e s . There i s no s i g -n i f i c a n t c o v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n the L a t i n and Asian groups. The tendency i n the l a t t e r i s weak and negative. Using the f i v e year measures, there are s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s w i t h i n the A f r i c a n group. These c o e f f i c i e n t s , however, tend to increase i n s i z e with a reduction i n the number of cases. I t cannot be assumed that the l o s s of cases i s random, and d i f f e r e n t i a l reduction i n cases may threaten i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y . The problem i s analogous to s e l f s e l e c t i o n i n some experimental and survey research. Generally speaking, the greater the amount of cooperation involved, the greater the amount of d i s r u p t i o n of routine and the higher our r e f u s a l r o l e , the more opportunity there i s fo r a s e l e c t i o n s p e c i f i c i t y e f f e c t . The c o e f f i c i e n t s a l s o tend to increase i n s i z e with increases i n the length of the time l a g . This tendency i s common to a number of the tables already presented. Campbell and Stanley state that "as the time i n t e r v a l between X and e f f e c t i n -creases, the p l a u s i b i l i t y of e f f e c t s from extraneous h i s t o r i c a l 1 1 6 events also increases." The "mortality r a t e " and " h i s t o r y " impinge upon the v a l i d i t y of the r e s u l t s f o r the Asian, A f r i c a n and e l i t i s t groups i n p a r t i c u l a r . Given that the number of cases decreases with longer time l a g s , the p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s between losses from export i n s t a b i l i t y impact - 68 -TABLE XXVI Impact of Losses from Export In s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l Violence in African Countries; Correlation Coefficients None 2 years impact Losses 1 9 6 £ l & | C a l Mean deviations -0.144 0.080 1965 (N=12) Mean squared deviations -0.179 0.107 1965 (N=12) 1 year Mean deviations -0.213 0,403 1965 (N= 8) Mean squared deviations -0.179 0.456 1965 (N= 8) Mean deviations -0.124 0.719 1965 (N= 7) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1965 (N= 7) -0.105 0.713 and p o l i t i c a l violence should be accepted only with extreme caution. (See Appendix IV for the tables of correlation co-effic i e n t s for the other regions.) In specifying the zero relationship between losses from export: i n s t a b i l i t y impact and p o l i t i c a l violence, the type of p o l i t i c a l system i s more relevant than socio-economic region. The negative covariation within the polyarchic sample i s the strongest. Again, there i s a lack of covariation within the nonpolyarchic group and the type of "closed" p o l i -t i c a l system i s important (Tables XXVII and XXVIII). The - 69 -TABLE XXVII Impact o f L o s s e s from E x o o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n P o l y a r c h i c C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s T „ T m r ^ - r r n „ M P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e Time Lag Impact .,,osses 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) -0.160 0.225 1960 (N=13) -0.107 0.134 1965 (N=14) -0.128 0.018 Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) -0.001 0.175 1960 (N=13) 0.033 0.110 1965 (N=14) -0.005 0.075 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) -0.536* -0.440 1960 (N=13) -0.501 -0.508 1965 (N=14) -0.421 -0.558* Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) -0.425 -0.498 1960 (N=13) -0.401 -0.537* 1965 (N=14) -0.344 -0.572* 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) -0.555* -0.407 1960 (N=13) -0.518 -0.490 1965 (N=14) -0.434 -0.544* Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) -0.575* -0.498 1960 (N=13) -0.551* -0.544* 1965 (N=14) -0.480 -0.582* - 70 -TABLE XXVIII I m p a c t c f L o s s e s f r o m E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n "isjon P o l y a r c h i c " C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s impact Losses ^ ^ j f 1 "Ultltes ^7one Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=30) -0.067 -0.026 1960 (M=23) -0.303 -0.077 1965 (H=33) -0.163 -0.086 Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=30) -0.074 -0.145 1960 (N=23) -0.173 -0.232 1965 (N=33) -0.173 -0.096 1 y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=27) -0.025 -0.070 1960 (N=22) -0.001 0.277 1965 (N=28) -0,025 -0.127 Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=27) -0.008 0.294 1960 (N=22) 0.015 0.278 1965 (N=28) -0.009 -0.084 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=26) -0.231 0.191 1960 (N=22) -0.067 0.051 1965 (N=27) -0.235 -0.097 Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N-26) -0.261 0.142 1960 (N=22) -0.029 0.032 1965 (N=27) -0.263 -0.078 - 71 -tendency e x h i b i t e d i n the e l i t i s t c o u n t r i e s i s n e g a t i v e and weak. W i t h i n t h e p e r s o n a l i s t group, t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s com-p u t e d w i t h t h e t h r e e y e a r measures a r e non s i g n i f i c a n t . Those computed w i t h the f i v e y e a r measures do, however., i n d i -c a t e a moderate p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t i m e l a g s (see Appendix IV and T a b l e XXIX). TABLE XXIX Impact r f L o s s e s f r o m E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n P e r s o n a l i s t C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag None 1 y e a r Impact L o s s e s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (M=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 1960 (N=12) 1965 (N=13) P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 •0.069 -0 .263 -0.190 -0.017 -0.183 -0 .089 0.204 0.165 0.188 0.178 0.139 0.164 0.328 0.311 0.251 0.238 0.145 0.206 0.581* 0 .548* 0.528 0.578* 0.548 0.547* 2 y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 0.030 1960 (N=12) 0.003 1965 (N=13) -0.004 Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N=13) 0.068 1960 (N=12) , 0.047 1965 (N=13) 0.043 0.385 0.442 0.335 0.489 0.552* 0.459 * p = < .05 - 72 -CONCLUSION In summary t h e r e i s no c o v a r i a t i o n between t h e amount of p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e and e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y , e x p o r t l o s s e s , e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y impact and l o s s e s from e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i m p act i n u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . The z e r o r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n t h e t o t a l sample do mask c o r r e l a t i o n s o f o p p o s i t e s i g n s w i t h i n s p e c i f i e d subsamples. The r e l a t i o n s h i p s v a r y i n s t r e n g t h and d i r e c t i o n w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e g i o n s and t y p e s o f p o l i t i c a l systems. The l a r g e s t v a r i a t i o n i s found between p o l i t i c a l g roup-i n g s . The s t r o n g e s t and most c o n s i s t e n t c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e between p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e and e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y , e x p o r t l o s s e s and l o s s e s from e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i mpact. They a r e a l l n e g a t i v e . No c o v a r i a t i o n s e q u i v a l e n t i n s t r e n g t h and o p p o s i t e s i g n e x i s t i n t h e " c l o s e d " p o l i t i c a l systems. T h e r e a r e moderate p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s between e x p o r t l o s s e s and impact o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n a p a r t i c u l a r group o f " c l o s e d " c o u n t r i e s , t h e p e r s o n a l i s t s t a t e s . The r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h i n the p o l y a r c h i c and p e r s o n a l -i s t subsamples can be g e n e r a l i z e d . Most o f the u n d e r d e v e l o p e d p o l y a r c h i c and p e r s o n a l i s t c o u n t r i e s i n the whole p o p u l a t i o n a r e c o n t a i n e d i n t h e samples so t h e r e i s l i t t l e p r o b a b i l i t y o f s e l e c t i o n b i a s . These c o r r e l a t i o n s c annot be c o n s i d e r e d c a u s a l r e l a -117 t i o n s h i p s . A l t h o u g h , f o r example, t h e r e i s a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between e x p o r t l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i n p e r s o n a l i s t c o u n t r i e s and t h e t e m p o r a l o r d e r has been e s t a -- 73 -b l i s h e d w i t h time l a g g e d c o r r e l a t i o n s , t h e a s s o c i a t i o n between t h e two v a r i a b l e s may be s p u r i o u s . The e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s r e q u i r e s t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . I n a s i m p l e b i v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d s p u r i o u s u n t i l i t i s o t h e r w i s e demon-s t r a t e d . x x ^ The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e " n a t u r e " o f e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y a r e o b v i o u s l y r e l e v a n t t o the problem o f s p u r i o u s n e s s . As f o r m u l a t e d above, t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between e x p o r t l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e i s ; E x p o r t L o s s e s — > Economic D i s t u r b a n c e — ^ P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e Economic d i s t u r b a n c e was n o t measured and was assumed t o be i n t e r v e n i n g between e x p o r t l o s s e s and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . I f t h e l o c u s and c o n t r o l o f e x p o r t l o s s e s i s " i n t e r n a l , " the most l i k e l y r e l a t i o n s h i p would be; Economic D i s t u r b a n c e \ \ i E x p o r t L o s s e s P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e Whether economic d i s t u r b a n c e s a r e i n t e r v e n i n g o r c a u s a l can o n l y be d e c i d e d w i t h f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s . T h i s a n a l y s i s has i n v e s t i g a t e d and found v e r y l i t t l e c o v a r i a t i o n between p o l i -t i c a l v i o l e n c e and a number o f v a r i a b l e s d e s i g n a t e d as " e x t e r -n a l . " T h i s i s t h e n e c e s s a r y f i r s t s t e p i n a s s e s s i n g the i n f l u e n c e o f " i n t e r n a t i o n a l " f a c t o r s on d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c s . FOOTNOTES F r e d W. R i g g s , "The Theory o f D e v e l o p i n g P o l i t i e s , " World P o l i t i c s , v o l . 16, no. 1 (October 1963), p. 171. With r e f e r e n c e t o L a t i n A m e r i c a , O s v a l d o S u n k e l s t a t e s t h a t . . . i f one examines t h e w r i t i n g s o f e c o n o m i s t s , s o c i o -l o g i s t s and p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s i n L a t i n A m e r i c a , e x t e r n a l dependence as a s u b j e c t i s r e m a r k a b l y a b s e n t . I t would appear t h a t s o c i o l o g y , economics, and p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e i n t h e post-war p e r i o d have n o t been c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h i s q u e s t i o n . O s v a l d o S u n k e l , " N a t i o n a l Development P o l i c y and E x t e r n a l Depen-dence i n L a t i n A m e r i c a , " The J o u r n a l o f Development S t u d i e s , v o l . 6, no. 1 (October 1969), pp. 23-24. 2 James N. Rosenau, " P r e - t h e o r i e s and T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " Approaches t o Comparative and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , ed. R. B a r r y F a r r e l l , E v a n s t o n , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, pp. 27-92; " I n t r o d u c t i o n : P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e i n a S h r i n k i n g World," L i n k a g e P o l i t i c s : E s s a y s on t h e Convergence o f N a t i o n a l and I n t e r n a t i o n a l Systems, ed. James N. Rosenau, New York, The F r e e P r e s s , 1969, pp. 1-17; "Toward t h e Study o f N a t i o n a l - I n t e r n a t i o n a l L i n k a g e s , " L i n k a g e P o l i t i c s , pp. 44-6 3; "The P o l i t i c s o f N a t i o n a l A d a p t i o n , " a paper p r e p a r e d f o r Round T a b l e on The Com-p a r a t i v e Study o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t t h e 65th A n n u a l M e e t i n g o f th e American P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , New York, September 3, 1969; and "The A d a p t i o n o f N a t i o n a l S o c i e t i e s : A T h e o r y o f P o l i t i c a l B e h a v i o r and i t s T r a n s f o r m a t i o n , " u n p u b l i s h e d manu-s c r i p t , O c t o b e r , 1969. 3 K a r l W. D e u t s c h , " E x t e r n a l I n f l u e n c e s on the I n t e r n a l B e h a v i o r of S t a t e s , " Approaches t o Comparative and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , e d . R. B a r r y F a r r e l l , pp. 5-26. ^ S t a n l e y H. Hoffmann, " I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s : The Long Road t o T h e o r y," World P o l i t i c s , v o l . 11, no. 3 ( A p r i l 1959), pp. 347. See a l s o t h e same a u t h o r s , Contemporary Theory i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., P r e n t i c e - H a l l I n c . , 1960, pp. 1-12. G a b r i e l Almond has r e v i s e d h i s s t r u c t u r a l f u n c t i o n a l approach t o i n c l u d e " e x t e r n a l " f a c t o r s . T h i s r e v i s i o n i s n o t f u l l y i n t e g r a t e d i n t o h i s approach, however. See G a b r i e l Almond and G. Bingham P o w e l l , J r . , Comparative P o l i t i c s : A D e v e l o p m e n t a l Approach, New York, L i t t l e Brown & Company, 1966. F o r examples o f more o r l e s s s y s t e m a t i c e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s , see Manus M i d l a r s k y and Raymond T a n t e r , "Toward a Theory o f P o l i t i c a l I n s t a b i l i t y i n L a t i n A m e r i c a , " J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h , v o l . 4, no. 3 (1967), pp. 209-227; C h a r l e s Wolf, J r . , "The P o l i t i c a l E f f e c t s o f M i l i t a r y Programs: Some I n d i c a t i o n s from L a t i n A m e r i c a , " O r b i s , v o l . 8, no. 4 (Winter, 1965), pp. 871-893; C. Wolf, J r . , United States P o l i c y and the T h i r d World: Problems and A n a l y s i s , L i t t l e Brown & Company, Boston, 1967, pp. 90-162? Merle K l i n g , "Taxes on the 'External' Sector: An Index of P o l i t i c a l Behavior i n L a t i n America?" Midwest Journal of P o l i t i c a l Science, v o l . 3, no. 2 (May 1959), pp. 127-150; E g i l Fossum, "Factors Influencing the Occurrence of M i l i t a r y Coup d'Etat i n L a t i n America," Journal of Peace Research, v o l . 4, no. 3 (1967), pp. 228-257; and'Bruce M. Russett, "Indicators f o r America's linkages with the Changing World Environment," a paper d e l i v e r e d at the annual meeting of the American P o l i t i c a l Science A s s o c i a t i o n , New York, September 2-6, 1969. Samuel P. Huntington, "Patterns of Violence i n World P o l i t i c s , " Changing Patterns of M i l i t a r y P o l i t i c s , ed. Samuel P. Huntington, New York, The Free Press of Glencoe, 19 62, pp. 45-46. 7 Almond and Powell, Comparative P o l i t i c s , p. 196. In order to s i m p l i f y h i s proposed simulation of l e s s developed countries, Shubick assumes the demand i s exogenous. See Martin Shubick, "Simulation of Socio-Economic Systems," General Systems Yearbook, v o l . 12 (1967), pp. 165-166. g Vernon Lee F l u h a r t y , Dance of the M i l l i o n s : M i l i t a r y Rule and the S o c i a l Revolution i n Colombia, 1930-1956, Pittsburgh, Univer-s i t y of P i t t s b u r g h Press, 1957, p. 15. l 0 T h e Trade and Development Board of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) at the Ninth Session, August 26 - September 23, 1969 i n Geneva. C i t e d i n United Nations Monthly C h r o n i c l e , United Nations O f f i c e of P u b l i c Information, v o l . 6, no. 9 (October 1969), p. 48. See also Charles K i n d l e -berger, Foreign Trade and the National Economy, New Haven and London, Yale U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1963, pp. 218-221. XiKwame Nkrumah, Neo Colonialism: The Last Stage of Imperialism, London, Heinemann Educational Books, 1969, p. 24f7 Also see Jack Woddis, Introduction to Neo-Colonialism: The New Imperialism In A s i a , A f r i c a and L a t i n America, New York, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Pub-l i s h e r s , 1969; and P i e r r e J a l e e , The P i l l a g e of the T h i r d World, New York, Monthly Review Press, 1968. Peter Worsley, The T h i r d World, London, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 1967, pp. 290-292. 13 Joseph D. Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y ; The Experience a f t e r World War I I , New York, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1962, p. 4. 14 A very b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n of these events can be found i n Dennis Au s t i n , P o l i t i c s i n Ghana, 1946-1960, London, Oxford U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1966. 15 Barend A. DeVries, The Export Experience of Developing Countries, World Bank S t a f f Occasional Papers, Number Three, 1967. ( D i s t r i b u t e d by the Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y Press.) 1 6 The complexity of the problem i s amply demonstrated i n F. Helmut Weymar, The Dynamics of the World Cocao Market, Cambridge Mass., The M.I.T. Press, 1968, Appendix 2j Tony K i l l f c k , "External Trade," The Economy of Ghana, eds. and research d i r e c t o r s , Wally Birmingham, I. Neustadt, and E.N. Omabol, London, George A l l e n and Unwin L t d . , 1966. (A Study of Contemporary Ghana, Volume I.) 17 The supposition that export i n s t a b i l i t y i s "more ex t e r n a l " than " i n t e r n a l " i s of course very important i n a causal a n a l y s i s . I f export i n s t a b i l i t y were the r e s u l t of i n t e r n a l or l o c a l economic disturbance, the r e l a t i o n s h i p between export i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e could be spurious. Compare the following diagram with Figure 1. Economic Disturbance Export I n s t a b i l i t y P o l i t i c a l Violence My purpose at t h i s p o int, however, i s to see i f there i s c o v a r i -a t i o n between export, i n s t a b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l v i o l e n c e . 19 Extending Hoffman's analogy to the Copernican r e v o l u t i o n , more systematic observations of the planets are needed. I f the Ptolemaic systems could have accurately accounted f o r such planetary phenomena as "retrograde motion," the r e v o l u t i o n would not have been necessary. Copernicus wrote De Revolutionibus i n an attempt to provide a more accurate and parsimonious theory. Copernicus d i d not attack the two-sphere universe, though h i s work u l t i m a t e l y overthrew i t and he d i d not abandon the use of e p i c y c l e s and e c c e n t r i c s , though these too were abandoned by h i s successors. What Copernicus d i d attack and what s t a r t e d the r e v o l u t i o n i n astronomy was c e r t a i n of the appar-e n t l y t r i v i a l mathematical d e t a i l s l i k e equants, embodied i n the complex mathematical systems of Ptolemy and h i s successors. Thomas S. Kuhn, The Copernican Revolution; Planetary Astronomy i n the Development of Western Thought, New York y Vintage Books, 1959, p. 73. 20 Erxc R. Wolf, Peasants, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., P r e n t i c e - H a l l Inc., 1966, pp. 44-45; Robert L. Heilbroner, The Great Ascent* The Struggle f o r Economic Development i n our Time, New York, Harper and Row, 1963, pp. 102-105; and Maurice Dobb, Economic Growth and Underdeveloped Countries, New York, I n t e r n a t i o n a l P u b l i s h e r s , 1963, pp. 22-23. 2 1 Adrian Moyes and Teresa Hayter, World I I I : A Handbook on Developing Countries, Oxford, Pergamon Press, 1964, pp. 60-64. 22 Benjamin Higgins, Economic Development, New York, W.W. Norton 1968, (revised e d i t i o n ) , p. 550. 23 James C. Ingram, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic Problems, New York, John Wiley & Sons, 1966, pp. 83-84. 2 ^ J a g d i s h Bhagwati, The Economies of Underdeveloped Countries, New York, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1966, p. 78. 25 Peter B. Kenen, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economics, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., P r e n t i c e H a l l , 1964, p. 102. A l l a n K. C a i r n c r o s s , Factors i n Economic Development, London, A l l e n and Unwin, 1962, p. 213; see also Seymour S, Goodman, "Problems of the Exte r n a l Sector of Developing Countries," The Developing Economies, v o l , 7, no. 3 (September 1969), pp. 351-366 and Kindelberger, Foreign Trade and the National Economy pp. 212-226. 27 Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , pp. 16. 2ft In t h i s r e - a n a l y s i s a l l the v a r i a b l e s were transformed using l o g , 0 to b r i n g the d i s t r i b u t i o n s c l o s e r to normal and " p u l l i n " extreme values. Campbell and Fiske state that: R e l i a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y can be seen as r e g i o n s on a continuum. R e l i a b i l i t y i s t h e agreement between two e f f o r t s t o measure the same t r a i t t h r o u g h maxi-m a l l y s i m i l a r methods. V a l i d i t y i s r e p r e s e n t e d i n the agreement between two attempts t o measure th e same t r a i t t h r o u g h m a x i m a l l y d i f f e r e n t methods. Donald T. Campbell and Donald W. F i s k e , "Convergent and D i s -c r i m i n a n t V a l i d a t i o n by the M u l t i t r a i t and M u l t i m e t h o d M a t r i x , " P s y c h o l o g i c a l B u l l e t i n , v o l . 56, no. 2 (March 1959), p. 83. 3 0 S e e J a c k Sawyer, "Dimensions o f N a t i o n s ; S i z e , Wealth and P o l i t i c s , " American J o u r n a l o f S o c i o l o g y , v o l . 73, no. 2 ( J u l y 1967), pp. 169-172 and Bruce M. R u s s e t t , e t a l . , World Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , New Haven, Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 196 4, p. 277 f o r c o r r e l a t e s o f GNP p e r c a p i t a f o r 1955 and 1957, r e s p e c t i v e l y . The same r e l a t i o n s h i p s have been found w i t h i n n a t i o n s . See Robert E. Roberts and George W. McBee, " M o d e r n i z a t i o n and Economic Development i n Mexico: A F a c t o r A n a l y t i c Approach," Economic Development and C u l t u r a l Change, v o l . 16, no. 4 ( J u l y 1969), pp. 603-612; C h r i s t e n I . J o h a s s e n and Sherwood H. P e r e s , I n t e r r e l a t i o n s o f Dimensions o f Community Systems, Columbus, Ohio, Ohio S t a t e " U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1960; and N a t h a n i e l B. G u y o l , "Energy Consumption and Economic Development, E s s a y s on Geography and Economic Development, ed. N o r t o n G i n s -b u r g , C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1962, pp. 65-77. 31 . . . one may a c c e p t the f o r e i g n t r a d e p r o p o r t i o n as a rough i n d i c a t o r o f the dependence o f a c o u n t r y ' s o v e r a l l p erformance upon m a t e r i a l f l o w s t o and from t h e r e s t o f the w o r l d . . . Simon K u z n e t s , Modern Economic Growth: Rate S t r u c t u r e and Spread, New Haven, Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, p. 302. A l s o see K a r l D e u t s c h , "Toward an I n v e n t o r y o f B a s i c Trends and P a t t e r n s i n Comparative and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , " American P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Review, v o l . 54, no. 1 (March 1960), Appendix 1. 32 Coppock a l s o used o t h e r measures o f commodity c o n c e n t r a t i o n and p r e s e n t e d the r e l e v a n t d a t a . See Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , Appendix T a b l e A-2. 33 F u r t h e r d e s c r i p t i o n o f the i n d e x and computation p r o c e d u r e can be found i n A l b e r t 0. Hirschman, N a t i o n a l Power and t h e S t r u c t u r e o f F o r e i g n T r a d e , B e r k e l e y and Los A n g e l e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , 1945. N o r t o n G i n s b e r g , A t l a s o f Economic-Development, C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1959, pp. 106-107. Coppock*s " l o g v a r i a n c e " measure i s computed u s i n g t h e f o r m u l a : X + 1 £(log — m) z V l 0 ^ = X t N X < t = t h e v a l u e o f t o t a l p r o c e e d s i n y e a r t N = t h e number o f y e a r s minus 1 m = the a r i t h m e t i c mean o f the d i f f e r e n c e s between the l o g s o f X t and X^ + 1, e t c . V^ Qg= the l o g a r i t h m i c v a r i a n c e o f t h e s e r i e s E x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y i n d e x = a n t i l o g l/vYQg The " p e r c e n t a g e d e v i a t i o n s " method i s t o f i t a c u r v e t o t h e time s e r i e s and e x p r e s s t h e annual d e v i a t i o n s from t h i s c u r v e as p e r c e n t a g e s o f t h e a n n u a l t r e n d v a l u e s . Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , pp. 20-25. 3 6 The U n i t e d N a t i o n s p r o c e d u r e i s v e r y s i m i l a r t o computing a n n u a l p e r c e n t a g e changes i n e x p o r t p r o c e e d s . The d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t an i n c r e a s e i s n o t c a l c u l a t e d as a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r b u t as a p e r c e n t a g e o f the peak v a l u e . See I b i d , and I n s t a b i l i t y i n E x p o r t Markets o f Underdeveloped C o u n t r i e s , New York, U n i t e d N a t i o n s S e c r e t a r i a t , 1952. 37 Op. c i t . , p. 2 5 . 38 K a r l D e u t s c h and A l e x a n d e r E c k s t e i n , " N a t i o n a l I n d u s t r i a l i z a -t i o n and t h e D e c l i n i n g Share o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic S e c t o r , 1890-1959," World P o l i t i c s , v o l . 13, No. 1 (January 1961), pp. 267-299. F a i l u r e t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e between s t a t i s t i c a l and s u b s t a n t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e has been one s o u r c e o f the debate o v e r t h e use and abuse o f t e s t s o f s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e . See D a v i d G o l d , " S t a t i s t i c a l T e s t s and S u b s t a n t i v e S i g n i f i c a n c e , " The American S o c i o l o g i s t , v o l . 4, no. 1 (February 1969), pp. 42-46. 40 Macbean, r J f p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and Economic Development, pp. 31 8 6 Theri~aFe~Icine economists who do not a c c e p t the o r t h o -doxy T h l i r d i s s e n t i s n o t as i m p o r t a n t because t h e y l a c k t h e empirical e v i d e n c e . See, f o r example, P a u l Baran, T h e P o l _ i ^ i c a l Economy o f Growth, New York, Monthly Review P r e s s , 1957, pp. 230-234. ^Coppock, 'International Economic Ins t a b i l i t y , pp. 107-108; Macbean, Export Instab i l i t y and Economic Development, pp. 62-66. 42 Coppock, International Economic Instability, pp. 114-122. 43 Macbean, Export Instability, pp. 62-68, 99-102. ^ I b i d . , p „ 63 . 45 Macbean analyzed the effects of export i n s t a b i l i t y on capital goods imported, investment, consumer goods imported, and rates of i n f l a t i o n . Only in the last two variables was there any significant covariation. Ibid., pp. 69-85. ^ I b i d . , p. 341. 4 7John A. Pincus, "Commodity Agreements: Bonanza or Illusion?" Reshaping the World Economy: Rich and Poor Countries, ed. John A. Pincus, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., Prentice-Hall Inc., 1968, p. 143. 48 Coppock, International Economic Instability, pp. 4-5. 6 9 " Walt W. Rostow, B r i t i s h Economy of the Nineteenth Century, Oxford, At the Clarendon Press, 1948, Chapter 5. ^°For example, see Ted Robert Gurr, "Psychological Factors i n C i v i l Violence," World P o l i t i c s , vol. 20, no. 2 (January 1968), p. 260 and Ted Robert Gurr, Why Men Rebel, Princeton, N.J., Princeton University Press, 1970, p. 62. 5 10p. c i t . , p. 123. 52 T.S. Ashton, Economic Fluctuations in England 1700-1800, Oxford, At the Clarendon Press, 1959, pp. 146, 147, 149, 154-155, and 160. 53 Ibid., p. 155. Nevertheless, the evidence of social unrest and distress i s sufficient to justify our regarding the period from 1765 to 1769 as one of depression. 5 4Ted Gurr, "A Causal Model of C i v i l S t r i f e : A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American P o l i t i c a l Science Review, vol. 62, no. 4 (December 1968), pp. lTll-1112, 1117. 55 Ivo K. F e i e r a b e n d and R o s a l i n d L. F e i e r a b e n d , " A g g r e s s i v e B e h a v i o r s W i t h i n P o l i t i c s , 1948-1962: A C r o s s - N a t i o n a l Study," J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , v o l . 10, no. 3, pp. 262-269. A l s o see Ivo K. F e i e r a b e n d and R o s a l i n d L. F e i e r a b e n d , " S o c i a l Change and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e : C r o s s - N a t i o n a l P a t t e r n s , " V i o l e n c e i n A m e r i c a : H i s t o r i c a l and Comparative P e r s p e c t i v e s , e d s . Hugh D a v i s Graham and Ted R o b e r t Gurr (The complete o f f i -c i a l r e p o r t t o t h e N a t i o n a l Commission on the Causes and P r e -v e n t i o n o f V i o l e n c e , June 1969). New York, S i g n e t Books, 1969, pp. 606-668. 56 Ted G u r r , w i t h t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f C h a r l e s R u t t e n b e r g , The C o n d i t i o n s o f C i v i l V i o l e n c e : F i r s t T e s t s o f a C a u s a l Model, P r i n c e t o n , N.J. , C e n t e r o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y , A p r i l 1967 (Research Monograph Number 28), pp. 66-67. 57 Raymond T a n t e r and Manus M i d l a r s k y , "A Theory o f R e v o l u t i o n , " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , v o l . 11, no. 3 (September 1967), pp. 264-280. ~ 58 Seymour M a r t i n L i p s e t , A g r a r i a n S o c i a l i s m , New York, Doubleday Books, 1963, pp. 46, 44-46, 90. See a l s o h i s r e f e r -ences t o s i m i l a r p r o t e s t movements i n Seymour M a r t i n L i p s e t , P o l i t i c a l Man: The S o c i a l B a s i s o f P o l i t i c s , New York, Doubleday Books, 1963. 59 James C. D a v i e s , "The J-Curve o f R i s i n g and D e c l i n i n g S a t i s f a c t i o n s as a Cause o f Some G r e a t R e v o l u t i o n s and a C o n t a i n e d R e b e l l i o n , " V i o l e n c e i n America, eds. Graham and G u r r , p. 6 87. James C. D a v i e s , "Toward a Theory o f R e v o l u t i o n , " American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, v o l . 27, no. 1 (February 1962), p. 6. I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t D a v i e s ' d a t a i n t h i s a r t i c l e and i b i d , l i m i t h i s c o n c l u s i o n s t o t h e s o c i o l o g i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e J-Curve h y p o t h e s i s . T a n t e r and M i d l a r s k y p r o v i d e f u r t h e r e v i d e n c e f o r the J - c u r v e h y p o t h e s i s . Raymond T a n t e r and Manus M i d l a r s k y , "A Theory o f R e v o l u t i o n , " pp. 26 4-280. ^ "'"Peter M. Worsley, The Trumpet S h a l l Sound: A Study o f Cargo C u l t s i n M e l a n e s i a , New York, Schocken Books, 1968. (Second, augmented e d i t i o n . ) and " M i l l e n a r i a n Movements i n M e l a n e s i a , " R h o d e s - L i v i n g s t o n I n s t i t u t e , v o l . 21 (March 1957), pp. 18-31. ^ ^ I b i d . , p. 25. As c a l c u l a t e d from the map i n Worsley, The Trumpet s h a l l Sound, t h i r t y - t h r e e p e r c e n t o f t h e movements e x h i b i t e d marked v i o l e n c e . 64 W o r s l e y , The T h i r d W o rld, pp. 290-292. 6 5 C a r l H o v l a nd and R o b e r t R. S e a r s , "Minor S t u d i e s o f A g g r e s s i o n : V I . C o r r e l a t i o n o f L y n c h i n g s w i t h Economic I n d i c e s , " The J o u r n a l o f P s y c h o l o g y , v o l , 9 (1940), pp. 301-310. " *~ 6 6 A l e x a n d e r M i n t z , :'Re-examination o f C o r r e l a t i o n s between L y n c h i n g s and Economic I n d i c e s , " J o u r n a l o f Abnormal and S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y , v o l . 41 ( A p r i l 19 46) , p. 155~. D e s p i t e M i n t z ' s c r i t i q u e , t h e o r i g i n a l s t u d y i s s t i l l f a v o u r a b l y c i t e d . John She1ton Reed c a t a l o g u e s i t s subsequent p o p u l a r -i t y i n John S h e l t o n Reed, "A Note on t h e C o n t r o l o f L y n c h i n g , " P u b l i c O p i n i o n Q u a r t e r l y , v o l . 28, no. 2 (Summer 1964), pp. 268-269. 6 7 A u s t i n , P o l i t i c s i n Ghana, pp. 400-401. In a l o n g e r p a s s -age Rod Bunker r e c o r d s a s i m i l a r s e r i e s o f e v e n t s . See Rod Bunker, " L i n k a g e s and the F o r e i g n P o l i c y o f P e r u , 1958-1966," The Western P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Q u a r t e r l y , v o l . 22, no. 2 (June 1969) , pp. 2 8 5 - 2 W : 6 8 Henry L. B r e t t o n , The R i s e and F a l l o f Kwame Nkrumah: A Study o f P e r s o n a l Rule T n ~ A f r i c a ^ Nev/ York, F r e d e r i c k A. P r a e g e r , 1966, pp. 15-16 1~5§~. See a l s o A r i s t i d e Z o l b e r g , "The S t r u c t u r e o f P o l i t i c a l C o n f l i c t i n t h e Nev/ S t a t e s o f T r o p i c a l A f r i c a , " American P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Review, v o l . 62, no. 1 (March 1968), pp. 75-76. 69 E g i l Fossum, " F a c t o r s I n f l u e n c i n g the O c c u r r e n c e o f M i l i t a r y Coup D ' E t a t , " J o u r n a l o f Peace Res e a r c h , v o l . 4, no. 3 (1967), pp. 228-257. Fossum has been c r i t i c i z e d s e v e r e l y and c o r r e c -t l y by H e m e s . See Gudmund Hemes, "On Rank, D i s e q u i l i b r i u m and M i l i t a r y Coups D ' E t a t , " J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h , v o l . 7, no. 3 (1969), pp. 65-72. ^ F o s s u m , op. c i t . , p. 236. 71 I b i d . , p. 237. 72 In h i s a n a l y s i s o f t h i s l a t e r p e r i o d (1951-1963), Fossum changes h i s i n d i c a t i o n o f " d e t e r i o r a t i o n y e a r " t o a r i s e o r f a l l i n the p e r c a p i t a GNP. He appears t h e n , t o a c c e p t the p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t f l u c t u a t i o n s i n e x p o r t proceeds and GNP p e r c a p i t a a r e h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d . He does n o t d i s c u s s t h i s , however and assumes s i g n i f i c a n t i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n , when i t c o u l d have been l i s t e d w i t h the d a t a he had a v a i l a b l e . Un-f o r t u n a t e l y , he does n o t p r e s e n t h i s d a t a on f l u c t u a t i o n s i n GNP., nor i s ' t h e s o u r c e a c c e s s i b l e , so I c o u l d n o t compare them w i t h t h e t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s , which a r e r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . 73 Op. c i t . , p. 237. 7 4 Y e a r b o o k o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade S t a t i s t i c s ; 1967, New York, U n i t e d N a t i o n s P u b l i s h i n g S e r v i c e , 1967, p. 7. 75 See Gunnar M r y d a l , A s i a n Drama: An I n q u i r y i n t o t h e P o v e r t y o f N a t i o n s , New York, Random House (Pantheon), 1968, c h a p t e r 13 f o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f the t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s o f u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . Oskar M o r g e n s t e r n demonstrates t h a t the i n a c c u r -a c i e s i n t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s can be l a r g e however. He s t r e s s e s t h e p o i n t t h a t e r r o r s h o u l d be e s t i -mated n o t i g n o r e d , and warns a g a i n s t " f a l s e p r e c i s i o n . " See Oskar M o r g e n s t e r n , On the A c c u r a c y o f Economic O b s e r v a t i o n s , P r i n c e t o n , N.J., P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1963 (Second e d i t i o n ) . 7 6 G. Udny Y u l e and M.G. K e n d a l l , An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h e Theory o f S t a t i s t i c s , London, C h a r l e s G r i f f i n & Company, 1950 (Four-t e e n t h e d i t i o n ) , pp. 627-628. 77 I r e a n a l y z e d the Hovland and S e a r s d a t a u s i n g t h e f i v e y e a r moving a v e r a g e s method d e s c r i b e d below and found r e s u l t s v e r y s i m i l a r t o t h o s e r e p o r t e d by M i n t z , 7 8 Macbean, E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y , p. 36. 79 The p o p u l a t i o n o f c o u n t r i e s from which t h i s sample was drawn was d e f i n e d by membership i n t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s i n 1967 and the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s c o n t i n u o u s t h r o u g h 1950-1960 i n t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Yearbook o f O I n t e r n a t i o n a l T rade S t a t i s t i c s , 1967. The more a p p r o p r i a t e t e s t would have been t o d i r e c t l y compare the v a l u e s d e r i v e d by moving a v e r a g e s , w i t h t h o s e " l o g v a r i a n c e " v a l u e s computed by Coppock. Coppock, I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic I n s t a b i l i t y , does p r e s e n t t h e b a s i c t r a d e d a t a f o r 19 46-1958 but the moving averages method n e c e s s i t a t e s t h e l o s s o f two y e a r s a t the b e g i n n i n g and end o f each s e r i e s . I f used on Coppocks d a t a , t h e r e f o r e , t h e two a s u r e s would n o t be f o r t h e same time p e r i o d . me 80 I n some i n s t a n c e s a c o u n t r y would n o t have any l o s s e s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e l o s s e s from e x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y impact would be z e r o . However, because a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s were t r a n s f o r m e d ( l o g ^ g ) p r i o r t o c o r r e l a t i o n .1 was s u b s t i t u t e d f o r t h e z e r o v a l u e . The d i s t o r t i o n i n t r o d u c e d i s m i n i m a l . The l o g i o t r a n s -f o r m a t i o n " p u l l e d " i n extreme s c o r e s and b r o u g h t th e d i s t r i -b u t i o n s c l o s e r t o normal. The P e a r s o n P r o d u c t Moment c o r r e l a t i o n w i l l be used i n the a n a l y s i s below. O t h e r s recom-mend n o n p a r a m e t r i c o r d e r s t a t i s t i c s , however. See S i d n e y S i e g e l , N o n - P a r a m e t r i c S t a t i s t i c s f o r t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s , New York, M c G r a w - H i l l Book Company, 1956. S a n f o r d L a b o v i t z , "The Assignment o f Numbers t o Rank Order C a t e g o r i e s , " American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, v o l . 35, no. 3 (June 1 9 7 0 ) , pp. 515-24, i n d i c a t e s t h a t f o r some purpos e s t h e r e i s l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e . 8 i F o r a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n , see Bruce R u s s e t t e t a l . , World Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , pp. 149-151; Don a l d V. McGranahan, "Comparative S o c i a l R e s e a r c h i n t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s , " and E r w i n K. Scheuch, "Cross N a t i o n a l Compar-i s o n s U s i n g Aggregate Data; Some S u b s t a n t i v e and M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Problems," b o t h i n Comparing N a t i o n s ; The Use o f Q u a n t i t a t i v e Data i n C r o s s - N a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h , eds. R i c h a r d L. M e r r i t t and S t e i n Rokkan, New Haven and London, Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, pp. 525-544 and pp. 131-168, r e s p e c t i v e l y . A l s o Ashok M i t r a , "Underdeveloped S t a t i s t i c s , " Economic Development and C u l t u r a l Change, v o l . I I , No. 3, P a r t I ( A p r i l 1963), pp. 315-317. P a u l S t u d e n s k i , The Income o f N a t i o n s ; T h e o r y , Measure-ment and A n a l y s i s , New York, New York U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1958 i s t h e d e f i n i t e t r e a t m e n t . 82 See M o r g e n s t e r n , On t h e A c c u r a c y o f Economic O b s e r v a t i o n s , pp. 50-61. 83 E x p o r t i n s t a b i l i t y impact v a l u e s and l o s s e s from e x p o r t i n -s t a b i l i t y impact v a l u e s were computed u s i n g t h r e e d i f f e r e n t e s t i m a t e s o f GNP. The e s t i m a t e s a r e f o r t h e y e a r s 1957, 1960 and 1965, The 1957 e s t i m a t e s can be found i n R u s s e t t e t a l . , World Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , pp. 152-154. The 1960 and 1965 e s t i m a t e s w i l l appear i n the second e d i t i o n o f W orld Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , New Haven, Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1971 ( f o r t h c o m i n g ) . Mark Zacher p r o v i d e d me w i t h t h e s e e s t i m a t e s . The t o t a l t r a d e e s t i m a t e s used i n the c a l c u l a t i o n a r e t h r e e y e a r a v e r a g e s , i . e . t h e 1957 v a l u e r e p r e s e n t s t h e average o f t o t a l t r a d e i n 1957 and t h e two a d j a c e n t y e a r s . 84 F e i e r a b e n d and F e i e r a b e n d , " A g g r e s s i v e B e h a v i o r s W i t h i n P o l i t i e s , 19 48-1962"; F e i e r a b e n d and F e i e r a b e n d , " S o c i a l Change and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e ; C r o s s N a t i o n a l P a t t e r n s " ; Ted G u r r , w i t h and a s s i s t a n c e o f R u t t e n b e r g , The C o n d i t i o n s o f C i v i l V i o l e n c e ; Ted G u r r , "A C a u s a l Model o f C i v i l S t r i f e " ; Ted G u r r , "A Comparative Study o f C i v i l S t r i f e , " V i o l e n c e i n A m e r i c a ; H i s t o r i c a l and Comparative P e r s p e c t i v e s , eds. Graham and G u r r , pp. 544-605; R.J. Rummel,„ "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and Between N a t i o n s , " G e n e r a l Systems Yearbook, v o l . 8 (1963) , pp. 1-50; R.J. Rummel, "A F i e l d Theory o f S o c i a l A c t i o n w i t h A p p l i c a t i o n t o C o n f l i c t W i t h i n N a t i o n s , " G e n e r a l Systems Yearbook, v o l . 10 (1965), pp. 183-211? R.J. Rummel, "Dimensions of C o n f l i c t Behavior Within Nations 1946-1959," Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution, v o l . 10, no. 1 (March 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 65-73; Raymond Tanter, "Dimensions of C o n f l i c t Behavior Within Nations, 19 55-1960: Turmoil and I n t e r n a l War," Peace Research Society: Papers 111 (1965) , Peace Research Conference ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l ) , Chicago Conference, 1964, pp. 159-183; Raymond Tanter, "Dimensions of C o n f l i c t Behavior Within and Between Nations, 1958-1960," Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution, v o l . 10, No. 1 (March 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 41-64; Herbon E l l i o t t Adams, The O r i g i n s of Insurgency, Unpublished Doctoral D i s s e r t a t i o n , Department of Operational Research, U n i v e r s i t y of Lancaster, March, 1970. 85 Tanter, "Dimensions of C o n f l i c t Behavior Within Nations, 1955-1960," pp. 159-167 i s a major exception. 86 The c o n f l i c t data gathered under the auspices of the Dimensionality of Nations P r o j e c t has been gathered together f o r more convenient use i n Joseph M. F i r e s t o n e , An E x p l o r a t i o n i n Systems Analysis of Domestic C o n f l i c t , Dimensionality of Nations P r o j e c t , U n i v e r s i t y of Hawaii, May 1969, Appendix A, mimeo. 87 Gurr with Ruttenberg, The Conditions of C i v i l S t r i f e , pp. 40-43 and Gurr, "A Comparative Study of C i v i l S t r i f e , " pp. 600-602. 88 Feierabend and Feierabend, " P o l i t i c a l Violence and S o c i a l Change," p. 660. 89 Gurr with Ruttenberg, op. c i t . , p. 28. 9 0 I b i d . , pp. 28-44. 91 Rummel, "Dimensions of C o n f l i c t Behavior Within and Between Nations," pp. 1-50; Rummel, "Dimensions of C o n f l i c t Behavior Within Nations, 1946-1959," pp. 65-73; Tanter, "Dimensions of C o n f l i c t Behavior Within and Between Nations, 1958-1960," pp. 41-64; Feierabend and Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors Within P o l i t i e s , 1948-1962," pp. 262-269; and Fir e s t o n e , An Ex p l o r a t i o n i n Systems Analysis of Domestic C o n f l i c t . 92 Ernest A. Duff and John F. McCamant, "Measuring S o c i a l and P o l i t i c a l Requirements f o r System S t a b i l i t y i n L a t i n America," American P o l i t i c a l Science Review, v o l . 62, no. 4 (December 1968) , p. 1125. ~* ' 9 3 G u r r , "A Causal Model of C i v i l S t r i f e , " p. 1108. The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of press freedom used i s described in Raymond B. Nixon, "Freedom i n the World Press: A Fresh Approach with New Data," Journalism Quarterly, vol. 42, no. 1 (Winter 1965), pp. 3-14. This i s the same c l a s s i f i c a t i o n used by Gurr and the data are for 1965. I took note of the few changes in press freedom Nixon reported since 1960. The values I used are for 1960-1965. See also Raymond B. Nixon, "Factors Related to Freedom i n National Press Systems," Journalism Quarterly, vol. 27, no. 1 (Winter 1960), pp. 13-28. 95 Examination of the "raw" data collected by Adams, The Origins of Insurgency, reveals a large amount of missing data. This i s most l i k e l y the case with Gurr' s data., Whether the missing data are systematically distributed has not been examined. This check should be made in future studies using "event s t a t i s t i c s . " 96 See Gurr, "A Comparative Study of C i v i l S t r i f e , " pp. 600-602. 97 Hanan C. Selvin, "Durkheim's Suicide and Problems of Empir-i c a l Research," American Journal of Sociology, vol. 63, no. 4 (1958), p. 611. See also Herbert Hyman, Survey Design and Analysis: Principles, Cases and Procedures, Glencoe, 111., The Free Press, 1955, pp. 295-327 and Paul F. Lazarsfeld, "Interpretation of S t a t i s t i c a l Relations as a Research Oper-ation," The Language of Social Research, eds. Paul F. Lazars-f e l d and Morris Rosenberg, New York, The Free Press, 1955, pp. 115-124. 9 8 Hayward Alker, Jr. "Regionalism versus Universalism i n Comparing Nations," World Handbook of P o l i t i c a l and Social Indicators, Russett et a l . , pp. 322-340. Also Hayward Alker, J r . , "A Typology of Ecological Fallacies," Quantitative Ecological Analysis in the Social Sciences, eds. Mattei Dogan and Stein Rokkan, Cambridge Mass., The M.I.T. Press, 1969, pp. 69-86. The type of p o l i t i c a l system has also been found to make a difference in the strength and direction of a r e l a -tionship. See John Wilkenfeld, "Domestic and Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations," Journal of Peace Research, vol. 12 (1968), pp. 56-69. 99 Greece was c l a s s i f i e d as Western or European and instead of "forcing" i t into a larger category i t was dropped from this analysis. ^ 0 0Bruce M. Russett, International Regions and the International System: A Study in P o l i t i c a l Ecology, Chicago, Rand McNally & Company, 1967, pp. 14-58, and "Delineating International Regions," Quantitative International P o l i t i c s : Insights and Evidence, ed. J . D a v i d S i n g e r , New York, The F r e e P r e s s , 1968, pp. 317-352. x 0 x T h i s seems r e a s o n a b l e because R u s s e t t ' s " A f r o - A s i a " group, d e s p i t e i t s name, c o n t a i n s o n l y t h r e e A f r i c a n s t a t e s : Morocco A l g e r i a , and M a u r i t i u s . 102 . A r t h u r S. Banks and Robert B. T e x t o r , A C r o s s - P o l i t y Survey Cambridge, Mass., The M.I.T. P r e s s , 1963; A r t h u r S. Banks and P h i l l i p M. Gregg, "Grouping P o l i t i c a l Systems: Q - F a c t o r A n a l y s i s o f A C r o s s - P o l i t y S u r v e y , " American B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n -t i s t , v o l . 9 (November 196 5 ) , pp. 3-6. 103 Because o f t h e s m a l l number o f c a s e s the c e n t r i s t c o u n t r i e s were n o t a n a l y z e d s e p a r a t e l y . They were, however, combined w i t h t h e p e r s o n a l i s t and e l i t i s t c o u n t r i e s i n t o a "non-p o l y a r c h i c " o r " c l o s e d group. 104^ Op. c i t . , p. 4. 105 G u r r w i t h R u t t e n b e r g , The C o n d i t i o n s o f C i v i l S t r i f e , pp. 19-26 and G u r r , "A Comparative Study o f C i v i l S t r i f e , " V i o l e n c e i n A m e r i c a , pp. 600-605. x ^ W i l k e n f e l d , "Domestic and F o r e i g n C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r o f N a t i o n s , " pp. 56-69. 107 R u s s e l l H. F i t z g i b b o n , "Measuring D e m o c r a t i c Change m L a t i n A m e r i c a , " Approaches t o Measurement i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s : A Non E v a n g e l i c a l Survey, ed. John E. M u e l l e r , New York, A p p l e t o n - C e n t u r y - C r o f t s , 1969, pp. 253-282. ( O r i g i n a l l y p u b l i s h e d i n The J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c s , v o l . 29 ( F e b r u a r y 1967), pp. 129-16671 ' 108 T h i s p o s i t i o n i s the same as t h a t p u t f o r w a r d by G o l d , " S t a t i s t i c a l T e s t s and S u b s t a n t i v e S i g n i f i c a n c e , " pp. 42-46 and R o b e r t F. Winch and Donald T. C a m p b e l l , " P r o o f ? No, E v i d e n c e ? Yes. The S i g n i f i c a n c e o f t e s t s o f S i g n i f i c a n c e , " The American S o c i o l o g i s t , v o l . 4, no. 2 (May 1969), pp. 140-109 Y u l e and K e n d a l l , An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o the Theory o f S t a t i s t i c s , pp. 310-323. 1 1 0 I b i d . , pp. 310-311. W i l l i a m J . Robinson, " E c o l o g i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n s and the B e h a v i o r o f I n d i v i d u a l s , " American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, v o l . 15, no. 3 (June 1950), pp. 351-357. The m o d i f i c a t i o n of time i n a l o n g i t u d i n a l a n a l y s i s , however, would a f f e c t the s i z e of the c o r r e l a t i o n s . 113 See Donald T. Campbell and J u l i a n C. Stanley, Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs f o r Research, Chicago, Rand McNally, 1963, p. 5. 114 See notes 81, 82 and 83 above. 1 1 5 0 p . c i t . , pp. 18-19. 1 1 6 I b i d . , p. 42. 117 See Arthur L. Stinchcombe, Construction S o c i a l Theories, New York, Harcourt, Brace & World", 19687" PP» 28-38; Hyman, Survey Design and A n a l y s i s , pp. 138-311 and T r a v i s Herschi and Hanan C. S e l v i n , Delinquency Research; An A p p r a i s a l of A n a l y t i c Methods, New York, The Free" Press, 1967, pp. 37^9 and 114-141. 118 You cannot, of course, prove non spuriousness. There may be another v a r i a b l e responsible f o r the observed r e l a t i o n s h i p . 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" Paper p r e p a r e d f o r American P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i -a t i o n M e e t i n g , September, 1969. A P P E N D I C E S I APPENDIX 1 Table 1 Ex p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Losses and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n L a t i n and A s i a n C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s L a t i n C o u n t r i e s Time Lag Export I n s t a b i l i t y Losses P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 None 1 Year 2 Years Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 0.104 (N = 21) 0.214 (N = 21) -0.117 (N » 21) -0.155 (N = 21) -0.229 (N = 20) -0.399 (N = 21) 0.201 (N = 20) 0.22S (N = 20) -0.176 (N « 21) -0.183 (N » 21) -0.216 (N « 21) -0.147 (N « 21) A s i a n C o u n t r i e s None 1 Year 2 Years Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s -0.509 (N = 13) -0.415 (N = 13) 0.234 (N = 12) 0.280 (N = 12) -0.239 (N = 12) -0.184 (N = 12) -«0.504 (N = 13) -0.405 (N = 13) -0.246 (N = 12) -0.190 (N = 12) -0.440 (N = 11) -0.400 (N « 11) T a b l e 2 E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A f r i c a n C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1 Year Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 2 Y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0.172 0, .124 (N = 12) (N = 12)) -0.194 0 .134 (N = 12) (N — 12) -0.190 0 .314 (N = 8) (N = 7) -0.143 0 .409 (N = 8) (N 7) 0.026 0 .734* (N = 7) (N S E 7) -0.005 0 .730* CN = 7) (N = 7) * < .05 APPENDIX 2 T a b l e 1 E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y L o s s e s and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n E l i t i s t C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag E x p o r t I n s t a b m t v j £ s s e s P o l i t i c a l j ^ i o l ^ n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0. (N 439 = 13) 0.005 (N = 13) Mean squar e d d e v i a t i o n s -0. (N 402 = 13) 0.061 (N = 13) 1 Y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0. (N 085 = 10) -0.598 (N = 9) Mean sq u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s -0 (N 057 = 10) -0.578 (N = 9) 2 Y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s -0 (N .298 = 9) -0.225 (N = 8) Mean squar e d d e v i a t i o n s -0 (N .321 = 9) -0.149 (N = 8) APPENDIX 3 T a b l e 1 E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n L a t i n C o u n t r i e s ? C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time L a g E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (M = 21) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) 1 Year Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) 2 Y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) Mean squa r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 0.148 0.052 0,092 0.180 0.106 0.141 -0.299 -0.396 -0.306 -0.311 -0.399 =0.318 •0.317 -0.412 -0. 333 -0.322 -0.408 -0.333 0.225 0.146 0.139 (N=20) 0.247 0.203 0.194 -0.050 -0.172 -0.073 -0.135 -0.225 -0.145 -0.024 -0.170 -0.054 -0.097 -0.208 -0.111 T a b l e 2 E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A s i a n C o u n t r i e s : C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag MeExnort I n s t a b i l i t y Impact p ° l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 None 1 Y e a r 2 Y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 13) 1960 (N = 9 ) 1965 (N = 14) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 13) 1960 (N = 9) 1965 (N = 13) Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 12) 1960 (N = 9) 1965 (N = 13) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 12) 1960 (N = 9) 1965 (N = 12) Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 12) 1960 (N = 9) 1965 (N = 12) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 12) 1960 1965 (N = 9) (N = 12) •0.157 -0.279 -0.282 •0.279 -0.448 -0.375 0.403 0.270 0.285 0.518 0.436 0.437 0.063 0.161 -0 .029 0.175 0.426 0.112 -0.053 -0.152 -0.256 -0.141 -0.338 -0.267 -0 .239 0.219 -0.014 0.256 0.287 0.073 0.094 0.069 -0.147 0.009 -0.015 -0.182 Table 3 E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A f r i c a n C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag Ex p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y Impact P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e . J.. 1961-1963 1961-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 9) -0.104 -0.052 1965 (N = 12) -0.173 -0.100 Mean sauared d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 9) -0.076 -0.189 1965 (N = 12) -0.236 0.006 1 Year Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 7) -0.267 0.416 1965 (N = 8) 0.490 0.614 Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 7) 0.380 0.514 1965 (N = 8) 0.455 0.667* 2 Years Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 6) 0.189 9.513 1965 (N = 7) 0.464 0.819* Mean squared d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 6) 0.338 0.628 1965 (N = 7) 0.489 0.780* * < .05 APPENDIX 4 T a b l e 1 Impact o f L o s s e s from E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n L a t i n C o u n t r i e s ; C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time Lag Impact L o s s e s None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) 1 Y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) 2 Y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 21) 1960 (N = 20) 1965 (N = 21) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 2 1 ) 1960 (N = 29) 1965 (N = 21) P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1961-1965 0.042 -0.053 0.089 0.179 0.100 0.141 -0.037 -0.069 -0.045 -0.105 -0.136 -0.111 -0.284 -0.236 -0.298 -0.390 -0.323 -0.398 0.338 (N=20) 0.261 0,236 (N=20) 0.312 0.263 0.247 -0.037 -0.126 -0.059 -0.106 -0.161 -0.115 -0.075 -0.189 -0.09^ -0.067 -0.158 -0.079 T a b l e 2 Impact o f L o s s e s from E x p o r t I n s t a b i l i t y and P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e i n A s i a n C o u n t r i e s % C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Time L a g Impact L o s s e s P o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c e 1961-1963 1261-1965 None Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 13) -0.283 -0.158 1965 (N = 14) -0.375 -0.354 Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 13) -0.327 -0.289 1965 (N = 14) -0.413 -0.386 1 Y e a r Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 12) 0.005 -0.200 1965 (N = 13) -0.011 -0.290 Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 12) 0.097 -0.181 1965 (N = 13) 0.091 -0.251 2 Y e a r s Mean d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 12) -0.285 -0.231 1965 (N = 13) -0.293 -0.379(N=12) Mean s q u a r e d d e v i a t i o n s 1957 (N = 12) -0.258 -0.289 1965 (N = 13) -0.253 -0.383 (N=12) 

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