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Information transmission in open and closed political systems : Great Britain and Germany in 1914 Goodall, Robert 1970

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INFORMATION TRANSMISSION IN OPEN AND CLOSED POLITICAL SYSTEMS: GREAT BRITAIN AND GERMANY IN 1914 by ROBERT GOODALL B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1969 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n t h e Department o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA September, 1970 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of P o l l t.1 fifll 8c.JP.nGtx The University of British Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada .September 5, 1970 ABSTRACT T h i s p a p e r i s an attempt t o r e s e a r c h a h y p o t h e s i s c o n c e r n i n g t h e p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s e s o f an open and o f a c l o s e d p o l i t i c a l system. The p a p e r opens w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e t h e o r e t i c a l r o o t s o f t h e p r o j e c t . P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n -t i o n has been p a i d t o J.N. Rosenau's p r e - t h e o r y o f c o m p a r a t i v e f o r e i g n p o l i c y , and works by a u t h o r s such as R.B. F a r r e l l , Raymond A r o n , and A l e x i s de T o c q u e v i l l e on t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between open and c l o s e d p o l i t i c a l s y stems. The h y p o t h e s i s we t e s t e d was d e r i v e d from t h e w r i t i n g s o f R.B. F a r r e l l . I t r e a d s : I n a c l o s e d p o l i t y b u r e a u c r a t s a r e l e s s l i k e l y t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t r a -d i c t i n g t h e l e a d e r s h i p ' s known p o s i t i o n s t h a n i n an open p o l i t y . In t h e second c h a p t e r t h e method o f s t u d y , t h e c a s e s t u d y , i s i n t r o d u c e d and d i s c u s s e d . G r e a t B r i t a i n and Germany j u s t p r i o r t o t h e F i r s t W o rld War were chosen as examples o f an open and a c l o s e d system. T h e i r s u i t a b i l i t y as c a s e s f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t i s c r i t i c a l l y a n a l y s e d . Data on s i z e , w e a l t h , and p o l i t i c a l a c c o u n t a b i l i t y a r e p r e s e n t e d . In t h e t h i r d c h a p t e r f o u r l e a d e r s a r e i d e n t i f i e d and t h e i r p o l i c y p r e f e r e n c e s o u t l i n e d . The f o u r a r e Edward Grey i n G r e a t B r i t a i n , Emperor W i l l i a m I I , C h a n c e l l o r von Bethmann-Ho l l w e g , and S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s von Jagow i n Germany. The f o u r t h c h a p t e r d i s c u s s e s t h e k i n d s o f messages which were b e i n g s e n t t o t h e s e v a r i o u s l e a d e r s . We e x p e c t e d t h a t i n t h e c a s e o f Germany t h e c o n t e n t o f t h e s e messages would be l e s s c o n t r a d i c t o r y o f t h e p o s i t i o n s o f t h e above-mentioned German l e a d e r s t h a n i n t h e c a s e o f B r i t a i n and S i r Edward Grey. The c o n c l u s i o n o f t h e s t u d y i s t h a t i n t h e p a r t i c u l a r eases o f pre-War B r i t a i n and Germany t h e h y p o t h e s i s i s n o t s u p p o r t e d . I n t h e f i n a l c h a p t e r e x p l a n a t i o n s o f why t h i s m i g h t be so a r e s u g g e s t e d , two new h y p o t h e s e s a r e f o r m u l a t e d , and t h e f i n d i n g s a r e r e l a t e d b r i e f l y t o t h e t h e o r y from w h i c h the p a p e r o r i g i n a t e d . - i i i -TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE 1. I n t r o d u c t i o n 1 2. The R e s e a r c h D e s i g n 12 3. The L e a d e r s and T h e i r P o s i t i o n s 30 4. Incoming Communications 52 5. Summary and C o n c l u s i o n s 76 B i b l i o g r a p h y 87 - i v -LI S T OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1. The E i g h t G e n o t y p i c a l A c t o r s 8 2. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Open and C l o s e d Systems . . . 19 - v -ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would l i k e t o acknowledge t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f P r o f e s s o r O l e H o l s t i , whose g u i d a n c e and c r i t i c i s m h e l p e d me a g r e a t d e a l i n r e s e a r c h i n g and w r i t i n g t h i s p a p e r . I would a l s o l i k e t o thank M i s s I z a F i s z h a u t , o f th e U.B.C. L i b r a r y who went o u t o f h e r way on s e v e r a l o c c a s i o n s t o h e l p me f i n d v a r i o u s r e s e a r c h m a t e r i a l . N e i t h e r o f t h e s e p e o p l e , o f c o u r s e , a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r any e r r o r s o r d i s t o r t i o n s i n t h i s p a p e r . CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION I t i s as a c c u r a t e as i t i s t r i t e t o d e s c r i b e t h e t i m e s i n w h i c h we l i v e as b o t h d a n g e r o u s and d i s t u r b i n g . The p r o -blems f a c i n g m a n k i n d a r e o v e r w h e l m i n g . O f t e n d u r i n g t h e p a s t decade t h e a c t i o n s o f men and o f s t a t e s have b r o u g h t us t o t h e b r i n k o f c a t a s t r o p h e i n t h e f o r m o f n u c l e a r war. The Cuban m i s s i l e c r i s i s was p e r h a p s t h e most f r i g h t e n i n g i n c i -d e n t i n t h i s r e g a r d . Y e t t h e t h r e a t o f n u c l e a r w a r f a r e , w h i l e i t i s p e r h a p s t h e most o b v i o u s , o v e r r i d i n g dilemma t o d a y , i s o n l y one o f a m y r i a d o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l i s s u e s c o n -f r o n t i n g p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s , p o l i t i c i a n s , and t h e aware p u b l i c . Hundreds o f p e o p l e a r e b e i n g k i l l e d d a i l y i n s m a l l e r c o n f l i c t s s u c h as t h e ones i n V i e t n a m and t h e M i d d l e E a s t . T w o - t h i r d s o f t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n l i v e s on t h e edge o f s t a r v a t i o n . The p o p u l a t i o n e x p l o s i o n t h r e a t e n s t o b r i n g e v en more p e o p l e t o t h a t unhappy s t a t e . I n t h e w e s t e r n w o r l d a t any r a t e p o l l u t i o n o f t h e a i r , e a r t h , and s e a i s r a p i d l y d e s t r o y i n g man's e n v i r o n m e n t . The l i s t i s so f a m i -l i a r as t o be c o l l e c t i v e l y a c l i c h e . F a c e d w i t h d i f f i c u l t i e s o f s u c h m a g n i t u d e and u r g e n c y t h e t e m p t a t i o n i s s t r o n g t o assume t h e p o e t i c r o l e o f c r u s a d e r . The demand i s f o r a c t i o n now. A d v o c a t e s o f v a r -i o u s c a u s e s r a nge f r o m t h e l u n a t i c Minutemen b e n t on - 2 -d e s t r o y i n g by f o r c e t h e system which t h e y see as r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e w o r l d ' s i l l s t o sober-minded p r o f e s s o r s i n t e n t on s o l v i n g immediate problems t h r o u g h l e g i t i m a t e o r s e mi-l e g i t i m a t e c h a n n e l s o f s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l a c t i o n . The p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t w i t h a s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s i s perhaps e s p e c i a l l y s u s c e p t i b l e t o t h e a t t r a c t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i s m . He i s , a f t e r a l l , more a c u t e l y aware o f t h e enormous, p r e s s i n g problems t h a t e x i s t i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s p h e r e . And, i n d e e d , some p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s have t e n d e d t o c o n c e n t r a t e on contem-p o r a r y p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n and p r o m u l g a t i o n . We m i g h t c i t e h e r e James E a y r s as an example."*" P r o f e s s o r James N. Rosenau a r g u e s , however, t h a t d i f f i c u l t as i t may be, a t l e a s t some p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s s h o u l d devote t h e i r e n e r g i e s t o t h e a n a l y s i s o f l o n g range t r e n d s and p a t t e r n s r a t h e r t h a n t o t h e s o l u t i o n o f immediate p r o b l e m s . He p o i n t s o u t t h a t one i s o n l y a b l e t o i d e n t i f y g e n e r a l t e n d e n c i e s and u n d e r l y i n g p a t t e r n s by r e t a i n i n g a somewhat d e t a c h e d view o f c u r r e n t a f f a i r s . A c c o r d i n g t o him such an approach w i l l e v e n t u a l l y be o f more v a l u e t h a n one which c o n c e n t r a t e s upon p a r t i c u l a r e v e n t s , f o r " i n t h e James E a r y s , R i g h t and Wrong I n F o r e i g n P o l i c y , T o r o n t o , The U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1966. - 3 -l o n g run [ i t ] i s l i k e l y t o c o n t r i b u t e t o the c l a r i f i c a t i o n 2 and s o l u t i o n of immediate p o l i c y problems." To i l l u s t r a t e h i s argument, he r e f e r s t o the Vietnam war. C e r t a i n l y t h i s i s one of the most important problems i n the w o r l d today and one which has a t t r a c t e d a g r e a t d e a l of popular a t t e n t i o n . Yet the i n v e s t i g a t o r who c o n c e n t r a t e s s o l e l y on p r o v i d i n g bases f o r p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s which might b r i n g an end t o t h a t c o n f l i c t , w i l l not have c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o our understanding o f , f o r i n s t a n c e , "why l a r g e superpowers get i n v o l v e d i n d i s t a n t c o n f l i c t s o r why s m a l l n a t i o n s make commitments t h a t c o n t e s t the presence of 3 superpower i n f l u e n c e m the are a . " In order t o analyse and perhaps prevent o r end s i m i l a r c o n f l i c t s which might occur i n the f u t u r e one would need t o have accumulated knowledge of t h i s more g e n e r a l type. This i s not t o say t h a t a l l p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s worthy of the name should approach the study o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l a f f a i r s t h i s way. I t i s o n l y argued t h a t a t l e a s t some i n v e s t i g a t o r s should m a i n t a i n a detached view most of the time and t h a t most observers should do so some of the time. Rosenau w r i t e s t h a t " i t i s d e s i r a b l e f o r some r e s e a r c h e r s James N. Rosenau, U n t i t l e d , unpublished manuscript copy of the f i r s t t hree chapters of a" forthcoming book, p. 1-6. 3 I b i d . , p. 1-9. - 4 -t o m a i n t a i n the a d a p t i v e p e r s p e c t i v e [detached view] [and] i t i s e q u a l l y a p p r o p r i a t e f o r the m a j o r i t y t o focus on 4 immediate problems. . ." A t t r a c t i v e as the h e r o i c r o l e may be h i s argument i s cogent and p e r s u a s i v e . S e v e r a l p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s have taken up the c h a l -lenge of a n a l y s i n g f o r e i g n p o l i c y and i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s i n the more g e n e r a l way which P r o f e s s o r Rosenau advocates. The a c t i o n s and i n t e r a c t i o n s of s t a t e s have been e x p l a i n e d w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o numerous v a r i a b l e s from the p e r s o n a l i t i e s of p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s , t o the i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e of s t a t e s and the nature of the i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l 5 system. However, these p i o n e e r i n g e f f o r t s have so f a r been somewhat uncoordinated and non-comparative. Each r e s e a r c h e r chooses h i s own terms of r e f e r e n c e and i f t h e r e are o t h e r s i m i l a r works i t i s more o f t e n the r e s u l t of a c c i d e n t r a t h e r than p l a n n i n g . No u n i f o r m way of c o n s o l i d a t i n g and weighing the importance of the v a r i a b l e s has been s e t down. I f the g a t h e r i n g of knowledge about i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s i s t o be t r u l y cumulative, an o r g a n i z a t i o n a l framework, a p r e - t h e o r y w i l l have to be e s t a b l i s h e d . P r o f e s s o r Rosenau has been i n the f o r e f r o n t i n attemp-t i n g to formulate such a q u a s i - t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e i n t o 4 Loc. c i t . 5 See, f o r example, the g r e a t v a r i e t y o f a r t i c l e s pub-l i s h e d i n James N. Rosenau, ed., I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s and F o r e i g n P o l i c y , second e d i t i o n , New York, The Free P r e s s , 1969. - 5 -w h i c h e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s s u c h as t h e i d i o s y n c r a c i e s o f d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , s o c i e t a l t r a i t s , and s y s t e m i c c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s c a n be " p l u g g e d " and e v a l u a t e d . E s s e n t i a l l y h i s e f f o r t s have been d i r e c t e d a t e x p l i c a t i n g and o r g a n i z i n g t h e i m p l i c i t p h i l o s o p h i e s w h i c h have g u i d e d e m p i r i c a l r e -s e a r c h up u n t i l now. To t h i s end he has i d e n t i f i e d g e n e r a l t y p e s o f c o u n t r i e s and g e n e r a l t y p e s o f v a r i a b l e s i n f l u e n c i n g f o r e i g n p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n . He has t h e n p r o c e e d e d t o r a n k t h e v a r i a b l e s i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e i r i m p o r t a n c e i n e a c h t y p e o f c o u n t r y . ^ T h e r e a r e a number o f p r o b l e m s w i t h t h e Rosenau p r e -t h e o r y , however. Many o f h i s c a t e g o r i e s a r e d i f f i c u l t t o u n d e r s t a n d . Some o f h i s d e f i n i t i o n s a r e i m p r e c i s e and ambiguous. I t i s n o t a t a l l c l e a r j u s t how t h e v a r i a b l e s f i t t o g e t h e r and how t h e y a r e r e l a t e d t o f o r e i g n p o l i c y b e h a v i o u r . M o r e o v e r , t h e p l a n i s so complex t h a t i t w o u l d be n e a r l y i m p o s s i b l e t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e a l l o r even most o f i t . Rosenau h i m s e l f a d m i t s t h i s d i f f i c u l t y . By h i s own c o u n t t h e r e a r e no f e w e r t h a n t w e n t y - n i n e p a r a m e t r i c , i n d e -p e n d e n t , d e p e n d e n t , and i n t e r v e n i n g v a r i a b l e s . Added t o t h e s e a r e t h e many more s p e c i f i c i n d i c a t o r s s u g g e s t e d . He w r i t e s : See t h e c h a r t i n James N. Rosenau, " P r e - t h e o r i e s and t h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " i n R.B. F a r r e l l , e d . , A p p r o a c h e s t o C o m p a r a t i v e and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , E v a n s t o n , 1 1 1 . , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, pp. 90-91. - 6 -I n s h o r t , t h e a d a p t i v e framework i s v e r y complex i n d e e d . So many c o m b i n a t i o n s o f i n d i v i d u a l , i n -t e r v e n i n g , and i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e t a s k o f t r a c i n g t h e f a c t o r s t h a t g i v e r i s e t o a p a r t i c u l a r l o c a t i o n on t h e a d a p t i v e -m a l a d a p t i v e s c a l e s t a g g e r s t h e r e s e a r c h e r ' s ana-l y t i c c a p a c i t i e s . 7 I t i s p r o b a b l y more r e a l i s t i c t o view t h e Rosenau scheme as a s o u r c e o f i n s p i r a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n as a p r a c t i c a l p l a n f o r r e s e a r c h . W h i l e t h e p r e - t h e o r y may as y e t be i n -a p p l i c a b l e as a whole, i t s a u t h o r has p r o v i d e d us w i t h some w e l l - r e a s o n e d arguments i n f a v o r o f t h e s y s t e m a t i c , compara-t i v e s t u d y o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y and he does o f f e r some i n t e r e s -t i n g s u g g e s t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h , b o t h i n terms o f r e w o r k i n g t h e t h e o r y and i n terms o f e m p i r i c a l i n q u i r y . F o r t h i s e s s a y we have chosen t o move from Rosenau's t h e o r e t i c a l scheme t o a r a t h e r l i m i t e d f a c t u a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n . P r o f e s s o r Rosenau has p r e s e n t e d us w i t h t h r e e s e t s o f p a r a m e t r i c v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g t y p e s o f n a t i o n s : l a r g e - s m a l l , P d e v e l o p e d - u n d e r d e v e l o p e d , and o p e n - c l o s e d . From t h e s e Rosenau, U n p u b l i s h e d m a n u s c r i p t , pp. 111-40-41. Rosenau chose the s i z e , economic, and a c c o u n t a b i l i t y parameters f o r t h r e e r e a s o n s : (1) E m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e sug-g e s t s t h a t t h e s e t h r e e v a r i a b l e s a c c o u n t f o r a g r e a t d e a l o f the v a r i a n c e i n f o r e i g n p o l i c y o u t p u t ; and, i n a d d i t i o n , t h e t h r e e parameters a r e " e s s e n t i a l l y u n c o r r e l a t e d " amongst t h e m s e l v e s ; (2) A l l t h r e e parameters a r e h i g h l y s t a b l e and t h e r e f o r e comparisons o v e r l o n g p e r i o d s o f time s h o u l d be p o s s i b l e ; (3) The e i g h t genotypes r e s u l t i n g from t h e combin-a t i o n o f t h e parameters r a i s e i m p o r t a n t and i n t e r e s t i n g t h e o r e t i c a l q u e s t i o n s . F o r f u r t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n , see pp. I I I - 4 and 5 o f t h e m a n u s c r i p t . - 7 -9 v a r i a b l e s he has d e r i v e d e i g h t g e n o t y p x c a l s t a t e s . We p r o -pose t o f o c u s on one o f t h e s e s e t s o f p a r a m e t e r s and t o com-p a r e t h e f o r e i g n p o l i c y p r o c e s s e s and o u t p u t s o f two o f h i s g e n o t y p e s . The s e t o f p a r a m e t r i c v a r i a b l e s w h i c h a r o u s e d our c u r i o s i t y was t h e o p e n - c l o s e d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n , b e i n g , as Rosenau p o i n t s o u t , r o u g h l y e q u i v a l e n t t o d e m o c r a t i c - a u t h o r i -t a r i a n . Dominated as t h e w o r l d i s today by two superpowers, one d e m o c r a t i c and t h e o t h e r a u t h o r i t a r i a n , i t would seem t h a t any knowledge about th e d i f f e r e n c e s i n f o r e i g n p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n and o u t p u t between t h e s e two t y p e s o f s t a t e s would be b o t h i m p o r t a n t and i n t e r e s t i n g . A f t e r r e v i e w i n g some o f t h e t h e o r e t i c a l l i t e r a t u r e on open and c l o s e d p o l i t i c a l s y s -tems one h y p o t h e s i s was chosen as s u i t a b l e f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t . The h y p o t h e s i s was d e r i v e d from R.B. F a r r e l l . I n an a r t i c l e a p p r o p r i a t e l y e n t i t l e d " F o r e i g n P o l i c i e s o f Open and C l o s e d P o l i t i c a l S o c i e t i e s " he w r i t e s : F o r c l o s e d systems P r o f e s s o r F a i n s o d has sugges-t e d t h a t i n t h e p r o c e s s o f d a t a g a t h e r i n g and t r a n s m i s s i o n "when t h e views o f t h e l e a d e r s h i p a r e well-known, t h e words which s u b o r d i n a t e s throw back a t i t t e n d t o c o n f i r m i t s b e l i e f s r a t h e r t han c h a l l e n g e i t s a n a l y s i s " . 1 0 The e i g h t genotypes a r e shown i n T a b l e 1. T h i s t a b l e was t a k e n from t h e Rosenau m a n u s c r i p t , p . I I I - 2 . "^R.B. F a r r e l l , " F o r e i g n P o l i c i e s o f Open and C l o s e d P o l i t i c a l S o c i e t i e s , " i n F a r r e l l , ed., op. c i t . , p. 187. - 8 -T a b l e 1 The E i g h t G e n o t y p i c a l A c t o r s Parameter Com b i n a t i o n s 1. l a r g e , open, d e v e l o p e d 2. l a r g e , c l o s e d , d e v e l o p e d 3. l a r g e , open, u n d e v e l o p e d 4. l a r g e , c l o s e d , u n d e v e l o p e d 5. s m a l l , open, d e v e l o p e d 6. s m a l l , c l o s e d , d e v e l o p e d 7. s m a l l , open, u n d e r d e v e l o p e d 8. s m a l l , c l o s e d , u n d e r d e v e l o p e d L a b e l s d e m o c r a t i c superpowers a u t h o r i t a r i a n superpowers d e m o c r a t i c g r e a t powers a u t h o r i t a r i a n g r e a t powers d e m o c r a t i c m i d d l e powers a u t h o r i t a r i a n m i d d l e powers d e m o c r a t i c s m a l l powers a u t h o r i t a r i a n s m a l l powers Thus, our h y p o t h e s i s r eads t h i s way: In a c l o s e d p o l i t y b u r e a u c r a t s a r e l e s s l i k e l y t o s u p p l y i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t r a d i c t i n g t h e l e a d e r -s h i p ' s known p o s i t i o n t h an i n an open p o l i t y . Examining t h i s h y p o t h e s i s would seem t o o f f e r n o t o n l y the p o s s i b i l i t y o f d i s c o v e r i n g some s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the f o r e i g n p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s e s o f open and c l o s e d systems b u t a l s o , by i n f e r e n c e , a number o f t h i n g s about t h e f o r e i g n p o l i c y o u t p u t s o f such systems. F o r i n s t a n c e , a number o f t h e o r i s t s have s t a t e d t h a t open systems t e n d t o be l e s s e f f e c t i v e i n t h e s e t t i n g and p u r s u i t o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y - 9 -o b j e c t i v e s because of the c o n f l i c t i n g o p i n i o n s amongst p o l i c y makers and the g e n e r a l p u b l i c . A l e x i s de T o c q u e v i l l e has w r i t t e n t h a t : . . . a democracy can o n l y w i t h g r e a t d i f f i c u l t y r e g u l a t e the d e t a i l s of an i mportant u n d e r t a k i n g , persevere i n a f i x e d d e s i g n , and work out i t s e x e c u t i o n i n s p i t e o f s e r i o u s o b s t a c l e s . I t cannot combine i t s measures w i t h s e c r e c y or await t h e i r consequences w i t h p a t i e n c e . H Raymond Aron, a more modern t h e o r i s t , says t h a t : . . . d i p l o m a t i c t a c t i s are more f l e x i b l e as regimes are more a u t h o r i t a r i a n . 1 2 Numerous oth e r p o l i t i c a l w r i t e r s such as Walter 13 14 15 Lippmann, George Kennan, and R. B a r r y F a r r e l l have a l s o i m p l i e d , some more e x p l i c i t l y than o t h e r s , t h a t statesmen i n n a t i o n s r u l e d by a u t h o r i t a r i a n governments have some d i s t i n c t advantages i n the f i e l d o f f o r e i g n r e l a t i o n s . The argument "'""'"Alexis de T o c q u e v i l l e , Democracy i n America, New York, Vintage Books, 1960, volume 1, p. 243. 12 Raymond Aron, Peace and War: A Theory of I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , New York, F r e d e r i c k Praeger, 1967, p. 282. 13 I n Walter Lippmann, The P u b l i c P h i l o s o p h y , Boston, L i t t l e , Brown and Co., 1955. 14 In George F. Kennan, American Diplomacy, 19 00-1950, Chicago, The U n i v e r s i t y of Chicago P r e s s , 1951. 15 In R.B. F a r r e l l , op. c i t . , pp. 167-208. - 10 -i s made t h a t p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s i n c l o s e d systems, unhampered by t h e d i v e r g e n t views o f t h e i r b u r e a u c r a t s , as our h y p o t h e s i s would seem t o s u g g e s t , a r e more e a s i l y a b l e t o make t h e q u i c k , d e l i b e r a t e , a r b i t r a r y , and perhaps s e c r e t s h i f t s i n p o l i c y n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e s u c c e s s f u l c o n d u c t o f f o r e i g n a f f a i r s . However, l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n c o u l d p u t an a u t h o r i -t a r i a n p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r a t a g r e a t d i s a d v a n t a g e . H i s c o u n t r y ' s s u c c e s s i n f o r e i g n r e l a t i o n s would be h i g h l y dependent upon h i s p e r s o n a l i d i o s y n c r a c i e s . U n l e s s he h i m s e l f was v e r y p e r c e p t i v e and a t t u n e d t o t h e v i c i s s i t u d e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l a f f a i r s he c o u l d be prone t o making e r r o n e o u s judgements and d i s a s t e r o u s d e c i s i o n s . I t would seem l i k e l y t h a t w h i l e t h e p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s i n more open p o l i t i e s m i g h t f i n d i t more d i f f i c u l t t o make p o s i t i v e d e c i s i o n s and t o p u r s u e l o n g range p l a n s t h e y would a l s o be l e s s l i k e l y t o make s e r i o u s m i s t a k e s o r p u r s u e dangerous p o l i c i e s . R.B. F a r r e l l w r i t e s : I t i s perhaps p o s s i b l e t h a t a t o t a l i t a r i a n s o c i e t y which a s s i g n s t h e power o f making t h e g r e a t f o r e i g n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s t o a v e r y s m a l l number o f men and a t the same time p a r t i a l l y i n s u l a t e s them from many o f t h e mechanisms o f c r i t i c i s m and c o n t r o l f o u n d i n open s o c i e t y may, by so d o i n g , encourage them t o un d e r t a k e b o l d , h i g h - r i s k p o l i c i e s . 1 6 I n t e r n a l d i s s e n s i o n can a c t n o t o n l y as a s t u m b l i n g b l o c k b u t a l s o as a s a f e g u a r d . S u c c e s s i n f o r e i g n p o l i c y m i g h t be more I b i d . , p. 206. - 11 -c l o s e l y l i n k e d t o abundance o f i n f o r m a t i o n t h a n t o t h e a b i l i t y t o make d e c i s i o n s q u i c k l y . Even i f d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i n c l o s e d systems a r e a b l e t o make t h e i r q u i c k , d e l i b e r a t e s h i f t s i n f o r e i g n p o l i c y a c c u r -a t e l y and t o t h e immediate advantage o f t h e i r own s t a t e i n s p i t e o f l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e i r a c t i o n s may have d e s t a b i -l i z i n g e f f e c t s on t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. A c e r t a i n amount o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y i s n e c e s s a r y i f c o n s t r u c t i v e change i s t o t a k e p l a c e , and c o n s t r u c t i v e change would p r e s u m a b l y be t o the l o n g - r u n advantage o f a l l s t a t e s , whether open o r c l o s e d . What may seem t o be a h i g h l y e f f e c t i v e p o l i c y b r i l l i a n t l y e x e c u t e d i n an a r b i t r a r y f a s h i o n by an a u t h o r i t a r i a n d e c i s i o n -maker might i n f a c t t u r n o u t t o be h i g h l y d i s r u p t i v e i n terms o f t h e system as a whole and perhaps e v e n t u a l l y f o r t h a t d e c i s i o n - m a k e r ' s p o l i t y . Moreover, i n t h e modern w o r l d , c o m p l i c a t e d and f r a u g h t w i t h danger as i t i s , i t seems h i g h l y u n l i k e l y t h a t any d e c i s i o n - m a k e r c o u l d o p e r a t e s u c c e s s f u l l y , e i t h e r i n t h e s h o r t o r t h e l o n g r u n , on t h e b a s i s o f o n l y a g r e e a b l e i n f o r -m a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , i f c l o s e d n e s s does i n f a c t r e s u l t i n d i s a g r e e a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n b e i n g k e p t from p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s , t h e n c l o s e d n e s s i s p r o b a b l y d i s a d v a n t a g e o u s f o r t h e s t a t e d i r e c t l y i n the s h o r t r u n and f o r t h e s t a t e by way o f t h e d i s r u p t i o n o f the i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m * i n t h e l o n g r u n . With t h e s e p o s s i b l e i m p l i c a t i o n s i n mind, l e t us p r o c e e d t o l a y the groundwork f o r our i n v e s t i g a t i o n . CHAPTER 2 THE RESEARCH DESIGN T h e r e a r e two a p p r o a c h e s w h i c h one c o u l d u s e t o t r y t o s u p p o r t o r d i s p r o v e t h e h y p o t h e s i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h e I n t r o d u c t i o n . One w o u l d be t h e g e n e r a l e x a m i n a t i o n o f i n -f o r m a t i o n t r a n s m i s s i o n and p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n i n a number o f c l o s e d and open p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m s . The o t h e r w o u l d be t h e more d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between b u r e a u -c r a t s and p o l i c y - m a k e r s i n one example o f a c l o s e d s y s t e m and one example o f an open s y s t e m . The l a t t e r c o u r s e , t h e c a s e s t u d y , has been c h o s e n f o r t h i s p a p e r f o r two r e a s o n s ; one b e i n g t h e n e c e s s i t y o f k e e p i n g t h e l e n g t h o f t h e p a p e r w i t h i n r e a s o n a b l e bounds and t h e o t h e r b e i n g t h e l a c k o f enough good d a t a f o r a s t u d y o f g r e a t e r b r e a d t h . The c a s e s t u d y , a s t u d y l i m i t e d i n s p a c e and t i m e , has a number o f a d v a n t a g e s and disadvantages."'" I n a p a p e r o f t h i s l e n g t h t h e c a s e s t u d y a p p r o a c h s h o u l d a l l o w and e n c o u r a g e a more d e t a i l e d e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s s u g g e s t e d by o u r h y p o t h e s e s t h a n a s t u d y w h i c h i n c l u d e d s e v e r a l examples o f open and c l o s e d s y s t e m s . An i n - d e p t h c a s e s t u d y s h o u l d h e l p e s t a b l i s h i n t h e m i n d o f t h e r e s e a r c h e r F o r a good d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e c a s e s t u d y a p p r o a c h and i t s d i f f i c u l t i e s , see G.D. P a i g e , The K o r e a n D e c i s i o n , New Y o r k , The F r e e P r e s s , 196 8, pp. 3-18. - 13 -a sounder u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p o s s i b l e e m p i r i c a l d i f f e r -ences i n p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n between open and c l o s e d s y s t e m s . I t seems l i k e l y t h a t t h e c a s e s t u d y approach would s u g g e s t a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s e s and e x p l a n a t i o n s about open and c l o s e d systems. I n a d d i t i o n , i t o f f e r s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a t l e a s t s u p p o r t i n g o r p a r t i a l l y d i s c r e d i t i n g t h e r e s e a r c h e r ' s own h y p o t h e s i s . F i n a l l y t h e use o f p a r t i c u l a r examples i n an attempt t o shed some l i g h t on a g e n e r a l p r o p o s i t i o n w i l l i n c r e a s e the r e s e a r c h e r ' s knowledge o f t h e c a s e under s t u d y and t h i s knowledge c o u l d v e r y w e l l p r o v e u s e f u l i n t h e f u t u r e . The d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f t h e c a s e s t u d y , however, a r e p e r -haps more o b v i o u s t h a n t h e a d v a n t a g e s . The f i r s t p r o b l e m f a c i n g t h e r e s e a r c h e r i s t h e p r o b l e m o f r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s . Each case i s i n a sense u n i q u e and a t y p i c a l . By l i m i t i n g h i m s e l f t o one p a r t i c u l a r example, t h e r e f o r e , t h e r e s e a r c h e r p r e c l u d e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f l e n d i n g s t r o n g s u p p o r t t o h i s h y p o t h e s i s . Any g e n e r a l i z e d s t a t e m e n t s must be tempered by t h e knowledge t h a t one must c a r r y o u t f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h on a number o f s i m i l a r c a s e s b e f o r e one can argue d e f i n i t i v e l y i n f a v o r o f o r a g a i n s t t h i s p a r t i c u l a r g e n e r a l i z a t i o n . T h i s d i f f i c u l t y can be m i t i g a t e d somewhat by a p p r o a c h i n g t h e c a s e s t u d y w i t h a number o f g e n o t y p i c a l c a t e g o r i e s , such as Rosenau's, i n mind, and by e m p h a s i z i n g t h o s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which appear t o be g e n e r a l r a t h e r t h a n u n i q u e . One c a n n o t , however, a v o i d t h e p r o b l e m a l t o g e t h e r . With t h i s l i m i t a t i o n - 14 -i n mind, t h e r e f o r e , we p l u n g e onward i n t h e hope o f i l l u m -i n a t i n g t o some d e g r e e , our h y p o t h e s i s , g a t h e r i n g and a d d i n g t o our knowledge about th e p a r t i c u l a r c a s e chosen, and p r o -v i d i n g some s u g g e s t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . As a case s t u d y f o r t h i s p a p e r we have chosen t h e examples o f B r i t a i n and Germany j u s t p r e c e e d i n g t h e f i r s t W o r ld War; t h a t i s , between June 15, 1914 and A u g ust 4, 1914. These two n a t i o n s and t h i s p a r t i c u l a r t i m e p e r i o d o f f e r e d a number o f a d v a n t a g e s . F i r s t , d a t a on t h e e v e n t s l e a d i n g up t o t h e War a r e r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . B oth B r i t a i n and Germany have p u b l i s h e d e x t e n s i v e c o m p i l a t i o n s o f docu-ments i n E n g l i s h . These document c o l l e c t i o n s a r e v i r t u a l l y complete and i n c l u d e p r i v a t e l e t t e r s , d i p l o m a t i c c o r r e s p o n -dence, m i l i t a r y i n s t r u c t i o n s , government memoranda, and n o t a t i o n s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e r e a r e a l a r g e number o f s e c o n -d a r y s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e , b o t h i n terms o f commentaries and b i o g r a p h i e s . These have been w r i t t e n by s c h o l a r s , g o v e r n -ment and m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l , and p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s . S e c o n d l y , d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d from t h e end o f June u n t i l t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e War i n e a r l y A ugust, t h e e v e n t s l e a d i n g up t o t h e c a t a s t r o p h e engaged t h e i n t e r e s t o f a l l t y p e s o f government p e r s o n n e l . There were numerous communi-c a t i o n s between d i p l o m a t s and f o r e i g n m i n i s t e r s , f o r e i g n o f f i c e p e r s o n n e l and m i l i t a r y l e a d e r s , b u r e a u c r a t s and - 15 -p o l i t i c i a n s . A l l of these messages, w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of a few p r i v a t e c o n v e r s a t i o n s and perhaps telephone c a l l s , have been recorded and are i n c l u d e d i n the aforementioned document c o l l e c t i o n s . Few o t h e r cases c o u l d o f f e r t h i s w e a l t h of a u t h o r i t a t i v e d a t a . T h i r d , B r i t a i n and Germany i n 1914 f i t r e a s o n a b l y w e l l i n t o the g e n o t y p i c a l c a t e g o r i e s suggested by Rosenau. The two c o u n t r i e s were q u i t e s i m i l a r i n terms of w e a l t h and s i z e , thus e n a b l i n g the r e s e a r c h e r t o c o n t r o l these two v a r i a b l e s . The Statesman's Yearbook, f o r i n s t a n c e , l i s t s the area of Great B r i t a i n i n 1914 as 121,633 square m i l e s , 2 i n c l u d i n g I r e l a n d , and the area of Germany as 208,780 square 3 m i l e s . B r i t a i n ' s p o p u l a t i o n ( A p r i l 2, 1911) i s g i v e n as 4 45,370,530 and Germany's p o p u l a t i o n (Dec. 1, 1910) i s 5 l i s t e d as 64,925,993. I n 1913, a c t u a l government revenue i n B r i t a i n was £188,801,999 and a c t u a l government expendi-t u r e was £188,621,930.^ The comparable f i g u r e s f o r Germany are £184,801,660 and £184,801,660.7 I t would appear, then, from these rough f i g u r e s t h a t w h i l e Germany was somewhat Statesman's Yearbook, 1914, pp. 112-13. 3 I b i d . , p. 889. 4 T b i d . , p. 12. 5 I b i d . , pp. 888-9. 6 I b i d . , pp. 41-42. 7 I b i d . , pp. 889-900. - 16 -l a r g e r i n terms of geographic s i z e and p o p u l a t i o n , B r i t a i n was w e a l t h i e r than Germany, g i v i n g B r i t a i n a h i g h e r per c a p i t a income than Germany. Another source, P a u l S t u d e n s k i , confirms t h i s suppo-s i t i o n . In h i s book The Income of N a t i o n s he p o i n t s out t h a t H e I f f e r i c h e s t i m a t e d t h a t i n 1912 Germany's per c a p i t a income was 555 marks as compared w i t h 815 marks f o r Great g B r i t a i n . A c h a r t i n the same book shows the N a t i o n a l Income of the U n i t e d Kingdom as E2,250M. or L49.0 per c a p i t a and the N a t i o n a l Income of Germany as £2,100M. or B30.9 per • 4 - 9 c a p i t a . I t seems c l e a r from these f i g u r e s t h a t B r i t a i n was somewhat r i c h e r than Germany. By 1914, however, Germany was, though second t o B r i t a i n , a r e l a t i v e l y wealthy w e l l -developed n a t i o n . I t s f i n a n c e s were i n e x c e l l e n t shape a c c o r d i n g t o the Commercial A t t a c h e t o the B r i t i s h Embassy at B e r l i n , S i r F. Oppenheimer. He w r i t e s : Germany stands today i n a p o s i t i o n of excep-t i o n a l f i n a n c i a l s t r e n g t h . . . The f i n a n c i a l s i t u a t i o n of the German money market has never been s t r o n g e r than today; i t i s emminently P a u l S t u d e n s k i , The Income of N a t i o n s , New York, New York U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 195 8, p. 144. I b i d . , p. 147. 17 -ready, should the o c c a s i o n a r i s e , t o a s s i s t the smooth working of the measures which are known as Germany's f i n a n c i a l m o b i l i z a t i o n . 1 0 W.A. Cole and P. Deane w r i t e t h a t : By 1913 a n a t i o n of more than 66 m i l l i o n p e ople, t h r e e - f i f t h s of them townsmen, Germany was the l e a d i n g i n d u s t r i a l c ountry i n Europe.11 V i r g i n i a Cowles agrees. I n her book The K a i s e r , she w r i t e s : Germany was more prosperous than a t any time i n her h i s t o r y . Although the p o p u l a t i o n had i n c r e a s e d d u r i n g t h e t w e n t y - s i x years of the K a i s e r ' s r e i g n from 41 t o 66 m i l l i o n , Germany's wealth had r i s e n f a r more r a p i d l y . Her manu-f a c t u r i n g output had t r e b l e d and her n a t i o n a l income doubled. She l e d a l l Europe i n chemistry and a p p l i e d s c i e n c e ; her r a i l w a y system was the b e s t i n the w o r l d ; she had surpassed B r i t a i n i n the p r o d u c t i o n o f p i g i r o n , was c l o s e behind her i n c o a l and had beaten a l l competitors i n the supply of potash.12 Germany, then, was e v i d e n t l y a r e l a t i v e l y a f f l u e n t n a t i o n . In s p i t e of some d i f f e r e n c e s we f e e l no qualms about p l a c i n g B r i t a i n and Germany i n the same g e n e r a l c a t e -g o r i e s of wealth and s i z e . In Rosenau's terms both n a t i o n s c o u l d be d e s c r i b e d as " l a r g e , developed" c o u n t r i e s . G.P. Gooch and W. Temperley, eds., B r i t i s h Documents on the O r i g i n s of the War ( h e r e i n a f t e r r e f e r r e d to as B.D.), London, H.M. S t a t i o n e r y O f f i c e , 1926, v o l . X I , p. 207. 11 W.A. Cole and P. Deane, "The Growth of Natxonal Incomes," i n W.J. Habakkuk and M. P o s t a n , The Cambridge Economic H i s t o r y of Europe, Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1965, v o l . V I , p. 17. 12 V. Cowles, The K a i s e r , New York, Harper and Row, 1963, p. 305. - 18 -B r i t a i n and Germany i n 1914 were somewhat d i f f e r e n t i n terms of the p o l i t i c a l a c c o u n t a b i l i t y of t h e i r r e s p e c -t i v e governments, however. At t h i s p o i n t i t would be worthwhile t o s e t down some of the c r i t e r i a by which one might judge openness and c l o s e d n e s s . Rosenau suggests t h a t one c o u l d "measure the a c c o u n t a b i l i t y parameter i n terms of the number of p a r t i e s r e p r e s e n t e d i n the n a t i o n a l l e g i s l a -t u r e , w i t h open a c t o r s b e i n g those h a v i n g , say, two or more p a r t i e s r e p r e s e n t e d and c l o s e d a c t o r s b e i n g those w i t h o n l y one-party l e g i s l a t u r e s or w i t h o u t any f o r m a l l e g i s l a t i v e 13 body a t the n a t i o n a l l e v e l . " R.B. F a r r e l l suggests a whole s e r i e s o f c r i t e r i a which he suggests c o u l d be used t o d e f i n e openness and c l o s e d n e s s . These c r i t e r i a are l i s t e d 14 below i n Table 2. These c r i t e r i a are o n l y suggestions and are not 15 meant to be f o l l o w e d r i g o r o u s l y . Rosenau's p r o p o s a l , f o r "•"""Rosenau, Unpublished manuscript, p. I I I - 3 . 14 F a r r e l l , op. c i t . , p. 168. 15 For i n s t a n c e , F a r r e l l w r i t e s i n I b i d . , pp. 16 8-9: " I t i s probable t h a t no p o l i t i c a l system has f u l l y f a l l e n w i t h i n the model form of c o n s t i t u t i o n a l democracy o r t o t a l i -t a r i a n d i c t a t o r s h i p . Many p o l i t i c a l systems f a l l somewhere between the types d e s c r i b e d . . . . I t n e v e r t h e l e s s may be u s e f u l here, f o r purposes of a n a l y s i s , t o examine some p o l i t i c a l systems which come c l o s e r to the two extremes, even though i t may be c o r r e c t l y argued t h a t i n one r e s p e c t or another they do not completely q u a l i f y . " - 19 -Table 2 Open 1. competitive regular electoral contests. 2. legalized two or multi-party organizations aimed at offering alternative government leadership. 3. a high degree of toleration for autonomous groups i n p o l i t i c s . 4. an acceptance of consti-tutional restraints on governmental power. Closed 1. an o f f i c i a l ideology. 2. a single mass party consisting of a r e l a t i v e l y small percentage of the to t a l population. 3. a system of t e r r o r i s t i c police control. 4. near-complete party con-t r o l over a l l means of effective mass communi-cations . 5. similar control over a l l means of armed combat. 6. central control and direction of the entire economy ty p i c a l l y i n -cluding most associa-tions and group a c t i v i t i e s . instance, f a i l s to take account of situations where, although there are two or multi-party legislatures, they do not exercise any effective control over the government of the nation as a result of constitutional restraints or i n e f f i -cient organization. The c r i t e r i a suggested by F a r r e l l , which he attributes to Friedrich, are suitable mainly i n the modern context, particularly the c r i t e r i a of closedness. - 20 -One would n o t h e s i t a t e t o d e f i n e t h e A b s o l u t e M o n a r c h i e s o f t h e M i d d l e Ages as c l o s e d p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m s , and y e t t h e y were n o t marked by o f f i c i a l i d e o l o g i e s , mass p a r t i e s , o r t e r r o r i s t i c p o l i c e c o n t r o l as we u n d e r s t a n d t h e s e t h i n g s . F a r r e l l " s measures o f c l o s e d n e s s a r e , t h e n , d a t e d . H i s and Rosenau's c r i t e r i a do, however, p r o v i d e us w i t h a rough g u i d e f o r c a t e g o r i z i n g B r i t a i n and Germany as e i t h e r open o r c l o s e d , and we s h a l l use them i n t h i s more g e n e r a l way. There s h o u l d be l i t t l e d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h t h e c l a s s i -f i c a t i o n o f B r i t a i n i n 1914 as a r e l a t i v e l y open p o l i t y . T h ere had been r e g u l a r e l e c t i o n s f o r o v e r a c e n t u r y by t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e War. The two m a j o r p a r t i e s , t h e L i b e r a l s and t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e s , had b o t h been i n e x i s t e n c e f o r a l o n g p e r i o d o f time and b o t h had, a t one time o r a n o t h e r , formed th e government o f E n g l a n d . The a r b i t r a r y powers o f t h e monarchy had been so c u r t a i l e d t h a t by 1914 t h e K i n g was m e r e l y a c e r e m o n i a l f i g u r e h e a d as K a i s e r W i l l i a m I I o f Germany was t o d i s c o v e r , much t o h i s c h a g r i n . 1 ^ C o n s t i -t u t i o n a l r e s t r a i n t s on government power had been a c c e p t e d as more o r l e s s l e g i t i m a t e s i n c e t h e s i g n i n g o f t h e Magna See Max Montgelas and W a l t h u r S c h u c k i n g , e d s . , Outbreak o f t h e World War, German documents c o l l e c t e d by K a r l K autsky ( h e r e i n a f t e r r e f e r r e d t o t a s K.D.), New Y o r k , O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1924, pp. 321-22. - 21 -C a r t a i n 1215. A l t h o u g h s u f f r a g e was n o t y e t u n i v e r s a l i t was f a i r l y b r o a d and t h e t r e n d towards u n i v e r s a l i t y was c l e a r i n t h e r e f o r m p r o p o s a l s s u b m i t t e d by t h e L i b e r a l government, t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f which was p o s t p o n e d be-cause o f the War u n t i l 1918. The p r e s s was f r e e t o r e p o r t on and c r i t i c i z e government a c t i o n s , r e s t r i c t e d o n l y by l i b e l laws. The government l e a d e r s were r e s p o n s i b l e t o the members o f t h e i r own p a r t y and, t h r o u g h P a r l i a m e n t , t o t h e e l e c t o r a t e . A l l p r o p o s e d changes i n t h e law were sub-j e c t t o the a p p r o v a l o f t h e combined Houses. We do n o t deny h e r e , however, t h a t t h e r e may have been some s o r t o f i n f o r m a l e l i t e w h ich t e n d e d t o occupy p o s i t i o n s o f a u t h o r i t y w i t h i n t h e B r i t i s h government. I t i s d o u b t f u l i f any d e m o c r a t i c n a t i o n has e v e r a v o i d e d com-p l e t e l y t h e phenomenon o f e l i t e r u l e i n t h e v e r y l o o s e - k n i t sense o f t h e term. A . J . H a l e w r i t e s about B r i t a i n : E n g l a n d has always been go v e r n e d by p o l i t i c a l o l i g a r c h i e s . . . . E d i t o r s , s t a t e s m e n , and o f f i c i a l s were t h e p r o d u c t s o f t h e same p u b l i c s c h o o l s and u n i v e r s i t i e s , and t h e y moved i n the same s o c i a l c i r c l e s . A l l b o r e t h e t r a d e -mark o f t h e B r i t i s h r u l i n g c l a s s . 1 7 However, w i t h o u t g o i n g i n t o a h i g h l y d e t a i l e d d i s -c u s s i o n o f t h e " i n t e r l o c k i n g d i r e c t o r s h i p s " o f B r i t i s h A r o n J . H a l e , P u b l i c i t y and D i p l o m a c y , New Yo r k , D. A p p l e t o n - C e n t u r y Co.Inc., 19 40, p. 8. - 22 -p o l i t i c s i n 1914, a n o t h e r e s s a y i n i t s e l f , we f e e l t h a t b ecause o f B r i t a i n ' s l o n g h i s t o r y o f p a r l i a m e n t a r y government, because t h e r e were c l e a r l y groups w h i c h o f f e r e d t h e e l e c t o r s a l t e r -n a t i v e governments, because s u f f r a g e was w i d e s p r e a d , because t h e government was s u b j e c t t o open c r i t i c i s m o f i t s p o l i c i e s , and because most B r i t o n s e n j o y e d t h e p e r s o n a l freedoms o f a d e m o c r a t i c s t a t e , B r i t a i n can be s a f e l y c l a s s i f i e d as a r e l a -t i v e l y open p o l i t y . C l a s s i f y i n g Germany as a c l o s e d system p r e s e n t s a more d i f f i c u l t p r o p o s i t i o n . The s i t u a t i o n h e r e i s f a r more ambi-guous. Germany had many o f t h e f e a t u r e s o f what most p e o p l e would r e c o g n i z e as an a u t h o r i t a r i a n monarchy. The R e i c h c o n s t i t u t i o n o f 1871 e s t a b l i s h e d t h e German Emperor as t h e p r i n c i p l e head o f s t a t e . H i s powers had a d u a l b a s i s : " . . . as Emperor he c o n t r o l l e d f o r e i g n and m i l i t a r y a f f a i r s , and a p p o i n t e d th e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r , " t h e c h i e f government m i n i s t e r , and "as K i n g o f P r u s s i a he r u l e d t h e d o m e s t i c 18 a f f a i r s o f h i s s t a t e , " t h e most p o w e r f u l i n t h e German f e d -e r a t i o n . Sigmund Neumann d e s c r i b e s t h e Emperor's powers i n more d e t a i l . He had t h e r i g h t t o make peace and t o d e c l a r e " d e f e n s i v e " war. He was t h e commander i n c h i e f o f t h e army. . . . A . J . Heidenheimer, The Governments o f Germany, New York, Thomas Y. C r o w e l l Co., 1961, p. 9. - 23 -The Emperor appointed the Reich o f f i c i a l s of the d i p l o m a t i c c o r p s , the j u d i c i a l and c i v i l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , and above a l l , the C h a n c e l l o r , c h i e f f i g u r e of the Second Empire. The l a t t e r was the K a i s e r ' s c o n f i d a n t and c o u l d not be compelled t o r e s i g n by even the most o b s t i n a t e p a r l i a m e n t . The p r i n c i p a l l e g i s l a t i o n was prepared by the F e d e r a l C o u n c i l and the c a b i n e t , members o f which were chosen by the C h a n c e l l o r and were r e s p o n s i b l e s o l e l y t o the sovereign.19 The K a i s e r , the C h a n c e l l o r , and the Bundesrat ( F e d e r a l C o u n c i l ) , then, were v e s t e d w i t h a g r e a t d e a l o f c o n s t i t u t i o n a l author-i t y . However, the c o n s t i t u t i o n of 1871 d i d p r o v i d e f o r an e l e c t e d assembly, the R e i c h s t a g . I n a d d i t i o n , the s u f f r a g e i n Germany was ve r y widespread. Neumann w r i t e s : . . . the e l e c t o r a l system p r o v i d e d f o r d i r e c t , s e c r e t , u n i v e r s a l s u f f r a g e f o r every male c i t i -zen over t w e n t y - f i v e ; i n f a c t the s u f f r a g e was more democratic than t h a t o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s or Great B r i t a i n . 2 0 But the only r e a l power g i v e n t o the R e i c h s t a g was t h a t of approving the budget. Even t h i s a u t h o r i t y was c u r t a i l e d by a measure known as the Septennat, which excluded the m i l i t a r y 21 expenses from the annual s c r u t i n y . Moreover, Bismark so 19 S. Neumann, "Germany," xn T. C o l e , ed., European P o l i t i c a l Systems, New York, A.A. Knopf, 1959, pp. 343-44, 20 I b i d . , p. 345. Loc. c i t . - 24 -dominated t h e e l e c t e d assembly w h i l e he was C h a n c e l l o r t h a t i t s t i l l had n o t f u l l y r e c o v e r e d i t s s e l f - c o n f i d e n c e and a u t h o r i t y by 1914. Neumann w r i t e s t h a t he "had a t h e o r y o f t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n a l gap ( L u c k e n t h e o r i e ) " which " e n a b l e d him t o c i r c u m v e n t p a r l i a m e n t a r y c o n t r o l o v e r t h e b udget i n c a s e o f d i s a g r e e m e n t between monarch and chamber and t o spend a t 22 h i s d i s c r e t i o n i n 'the i n t e r e s t o f t h e s t a t e ' . " A.F. Heidenheimer d e s c r i b e s i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l B i s m a r k ' s c l e v e r and r u t h l e s s ' i ron-handed' t a c t i c s . F o r i n p u r s u i t o f h i s p o l i c y o f k i l l i n g p a r -l i a m e n t a r i a n i s m t h r o u g h P a r l i a m e n t , t h e I r o n C h a n c e l l o r sought b o t h t o l i m i t t h e R e i c h s t a g ' s powers t o n o n e s s e n t i a l s , and t o h a r a s s and d i s c o m f i t t h e l e g i s l a t i v e p a r t i e s so t h a t t h e y would f e a r f u l l y r e s p o n d t o h i s w i s h e s . He l a r g e l y s u c c e e d e d i n d e p r i v i n g t h e R e i c h s t a g o f m i n i s t e r s whom i t c o u l d h o l d r e s p o n s i b l e f o r p o l i c y , and he a l m o s t s u c c e e d e d i n d e p r i -v i n g i t o f i t s most b a s i c power, t h a t o f a p p r ov-i n g the budget. . . I n t h i s way t h e l e g i s l a t u r e was p l a c e d i n a p o s i t i o n where i t c o u l d n e i t h e r a f f e c t t h e t e n u r e o f t h e C h a n c e l l o r and h i s m i n i s t e r s , n o r e f f e c t i v e l y hamper passage o f t h e most i m p o r t a n t p i e c e s o f l e g i s l a t i o n . F u r t h e r -more, the C o n s t i t u t i o n p r o h i b i t e d s i m u l t a n e o u s membership i n t h e government and t h e l e g i s l a t u r e , thus s e t t i n g a l e g a l b a r r i e r t o t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f p a r l i a m e n t a r y government.23 Bismark was f o r c e d t o r e t i r e i n 1890 a f t e r s e v e r a l c l a s h e s w i t h W i l l i a m I I . The new Emperor, u n l i k e h i s p r e d e -24 c e s s o r , wanted "to be h i s own C h a n c e l l o r , " and a f t e r L o c . c i t . Heidenheimer, op. c i t . , p. 8. 24 Wolfgang T r e u e , Germany S i n c e 1848, Bad Godesberg, I n t e r N a t i o n e s , 1968, p. 59. - 25 -Bismark's demise he appointed a s e r i e s o f r e l a t i v e l y weak, 25 i n e f f e c t u a l men t o the c h a n c e l l o r s h i p . Freed from B i s -mark's domination, the R e i c h s t a g d i d r e g a i n some o f i t s l o s t power. In 1909, f o r i n s t a n c e , as p a r t of the embarrassing 2 6 D a i l y Telegraph a f f a i r , the R e i c h s t a g f o r c e d the Emperor to make an a p o l o g e t i c statement and overthrew the c a b i n e t of C h a n c e l l o r von Bulow. The e l e c t i o n of 1912 p l a c e d a d e f i n i t e l y anti-government m a j o r i t y i n the R e i c h s t a g . Yet the Emperor and h i s m i n i s t e r s were a b l e t o i g n o r e most p r o t e s t s from the P a r l i a m e n t . For i n s t a n c e , Neumann w r i t e s of one case i n which "the government was censured by an overwhelming vote o f 293 t o 54 f o r high-handed treatment of c i v i l i a n s by the m i l i t a r y c a s t e " but "the a c t i o n was 27 merely i g n o r e d by the C h a n c e l l o r . " Before we draw any c o n c l u s i o n s about Germany i n 1914 we should note t h a t the n a t i o n was not c h a r a c t e r i z e d e n t i r e l y by F a r r e l l ' s o t h e r c r i t e r i a o f a c l o s e d system. While the government d i d i n f l u e n c e the economy i n some ways, such as by encouraging the c a r t e l system, i t d i d not m a i n t a i n the Neumann, op. c i t . , p. 341. 2 6 For an account of the D a i l y Telegraph i n t e r v i e w , see V. Cowles, op. c i t . , pp. 256-279, passim. 27 Neumann, op. c i t . , p. 354. - 26 -k i n d o f c o n t r o l t h a t i s now e x e r c i s e d , f o r i n s t a n c e , by t h e S o v i e t government. The government o f Germany d i d m a i n t a i n o f f i c i a l news o u t l e t s , t h e W o l f f T e l e g r a p h i c Bureau f o r o f f i c i a l communications, t h e N o r d d e u t s c h e A l l e g m e i n e Z e i t u n g f o r s e m i - o f f i c i a l s t a t e m e n t s , and t h e K o l n i s c h e Z e i t u n g f o r 2 8 i n s p i r e d a r t i c l e s and t r i a l b a l l o o n s . But t h e p r e s s on the whole was a l l o w e d t o e x p r e s s d i s s e n t i n g o p i n i o n s and t o d i s s e m i n a t e c r i t i c i s m s o f t h e regime. In f a c t , H a l e e s t i m a t e s t h a t t h e r e were 4,000 d a i l y and weekly newspapers i n Germany 29 i n 1914. Pre-war Germany was n o t an " i d e a l " example o f a c l o s e d p o l i t i c a l system. But power c l e a r l y was c o n c e n t r a t e d i n t h e hands o f a few i n d i v i d u a l s who were n e i t h e r o f f i c i a l l y r e s -p o n s i b l e t o n o r a c t u a l l y r e s p o n s i v e t o t h e demands o f t h e m a j o r i t y o f the p o p u l a t i o n . P o s i t i o n s o f e f f e c t i v e p o l i t i c a l power were n o t open t o a b r o a d range o f c i t i z e n s who com-p e t e d i n e l e c t i o n s i n o r d e r t o g a i n o f f i c e . I n a d d i t i o n , we s h o u l d n o t t h i n k o f "open" and " c l o s e d " as dichotomous c a t e -g o r i e s , b u t as the extreme o p p o s i t e ends o f a continuum. From the e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d above i t would seem t h a t we c o u l d j u s t l y p l a c e B r i t a i n more towards the "open" end than Germany. We keep i n mind, though, t h e q u a l i f i c a t i o n t h a t H a l e , op. c i t . , p. 9. 29 I b i d . , p. 43. - 27 -Germany i n p a r t i c u l a r i s an ambiguous c a s e and t h a t we have p l a c e d i t towards t h e " c l o s e d " end o f t h e p o l i t i c a l s p e c t r u m on t h e b a s i s o f a r a t h e r b r i e f (though n o t , we f e e l , e n t i r e l y i n a d e q u a t e ) e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e s t r u c t u r e and f u n c t i o n o f i t s p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s , f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s . A t t h i s p o i n t i t would seem a p p r o p r i a t e t o i n s e r t a g e n e r a l d e s c r i p t i o n o f how t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n was p l a n n e d and how i t was c o n d u c t e d . The e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d i n s u p p o r t o f and i n o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e h y p o t h e s e s w i l l be m a i n l y a n e c d o t a l . A f t e r some t h o u g h t , s t u d y , and c o n s u l t a t i o n i t was d e c i d e d t h a t such an approach, combined w i t h v a r i o u s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f t h e documents c o n t a i n e d i n s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s , would p r o v e j u s t as a c c u r a t e and i n f o r m a t i v e as a more r i g o r o u s s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s . In a d d i t i o n , t h e a n e c d o t a l s t y l e o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s l e s s t e d i o u s and time-consuming. Here i s a p l a n o f t h e a n a l y s i s i n p o i n t form as i t was c a r r i e d o u t : 1. The l e a d e r s o f B r i t a i n and Germany i n t h e f i e l d o f f o r e i g n r e l a t i o n s were i d e n t i f i e d . 2. Each l e a d e r ' s g e n e r a l p o l i c y p o s i t i o n was o u t l i n e d i n f a i r d e t a i l . 3. The v a r i o u s messages and n o t e s a d d r e s s e d t o o r d e l i v e r e d t o t h e l e a d e r s were examined t o see i f t h e y were a t v a r i a n c e w i t h t h e l e a d e r s 1 e x p r e s s e d p o l i c y p o s i t i o n s . We e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e r e would be l e s s v a r i a n c e i n t h e case o f Germany t h a n i n t h e c a s e o f E n g l a n d . 4. The c o n c l u s i o n s s u g g e s t e d by t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n were o u t l i n e d . - 28 -We m i g h t a l s o add a few words h e r e a b o u t t h e meanings we have a t t r i b u t e d t o v a r i o u s words and p h r a s e s w i t h i n t h e h y p o t h e s e s . P e r h a p s f i r s t i t w o u l d be u s e f u l t o r e p e a t o u r p r e v i o u s l y - s t a t e d p r o p o s i t i o n . I n a c l o s e d p o l i t y b u r e a u c r a t s a r e l e s s l i k e l y t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t r a d i c t i n g t h e l e a d e r s h i p ' s known p o s i t i o n t h a n i n an open p o l i t y . " B u r e a u c r a t s " a r e t h o s e p e o p l e who h o l d n o n - e l e c t i v e government o r c i v i l s e r v i c e p o s i t i o n s o f a u t h o r i t y . T h i s c a t e g o r y i n -c l u d e s d e p u t y m i n i s t e r s and t h e i r a s s i s t a n t s , p r i v a t e s e c r e -t a r i e s , m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l , and d i p l o m a t s and t h e i r s t a f f s . " L e a d e r s h i p " r e f e r s t o p e r s o n s h o l d i n g t o p - r a n k i n g e l e c t i v e and n o n - e l e c t i v e government and c i v i l s e r v i c e p o s i t i o n s who a p p ear t o have p l a y e d a p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t d e c i s i o n -m a k i n g r o l e i n t h e s i t u a t i o n u n d e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n . T h e i r i m -p o r t a n c e c o u l d be measured by a f a i r l y d e t a i l e d s t u d y o f t h e amount and t y p e o f c o m m u n i c a t i o n s w h i c h t h e y r e c e i v e and d i s -p a t c h . The c a t e g o r i e s " b u r e a u c r a t " and " l e a d e r " a r e n o t e n t i r e l y e x c l u s i v e and one p e r s o n m i g h t be c l a s s i f i e d f i r s t as a b u r e a u c r a t and s e c o n d l y as a l e a d e r , d e p e n d i n g upon t h e f o c u s o f t h e a n a l y s i s a t any p a r t i c u l a r t i m e . Thus von B ethmann-Hollweg, t h e German C h a n c e l l o r , m i g h t be c o n s i d e r e d i n one c o n t e x t a b u r e a u c r a t and i n a n o t h e r , a l e a d e r . An e l e c t e d o f f i c i a l , s u c h as Edward G r e y , "the B r i t i s h F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r , w o u l d n o t n o r m a l l y , however, be c o n s i d e r e d a b u r e a u -c r a t . - 29 -The " l e a d e r s h i p ' s known p o s i t i o n " has been d e t e r m i n e d by c a r e f u l l y e x a m i n i n g a l l o f t h a t p a r t i c u l a r p e r s o n ' s announcements, d i s p a t c h e s , c o n v e r s a t i o n s , and comments as p r e s e n t e d i n the c o l l e c t i o n s o f documents. R e f e r e n c e has a l s o been made t o s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s . " C o n t r a d i c t o r y i n f o r m a t i o n " i s c o n c e i v e d t o be o f a f a c t u a l , i n t e r p r e t i v e , o r p r e s c r i p t i v e n a t u r e , o r any combin-a t i o n o f t h e s e c a t e g o r i e s . Where c o n t r a d i c t i o n s were p r e s e n t t h e r e s e a r c h e r e x p e c t e d them t o be q u i t e c l e a r l y e v i d e n t f o r the most p a r t . I f some doubt e x i s t e d as t o t h e i n t e n t and d i s p o s i t i o n o f any p a r t i c u l a r message, t h a t message was c a r e -f u l l y s c r e e n e d w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f p r e v i o u s messages from t h e same s o u r c e and messages from t h e t a r g e t o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r communication t o t h e communicant. Most o f t h e a n a l y s i s has been c o n d u c t e d u s i n g common sense and i n t u i t i o n as a g u i d e . Thus, h a v i n g o u t l i n e d o u r p l a n s f o r t h i s p a r t i c u l a r s t u d y , l e t us c o n t i n u e w i t h t h e t a l e o f t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n . CHAPTER 3 THE LEADERS AND THEIR POSITIONS The f i r s t p r o b l e m p r e s e n t e d t o us i n r e s e a r c h i n g t h i s c h a p t e r was t o d i s c o v e r w h i c h p a r t i c u l a r d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s t o f o c u s upon as l e a d e r s . The d e c i s i o n s as t o whom s h o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d as l e a d e r s were made a c c o r d i n g t o two c r i t e r i a : t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l p o s i t i o n o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r , and h i s a p p a r e n t i m p o r t a n c e w i t h i n t h e t i m e p e r i o d as d e m o n s t r a t e d by t h e d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e number o f messages w h i c h he s e n t and r e c e i v e d . Hence f o u r men have been c h o s e n as l e a d e r s , one f r o m B r i t a i n and t h r e e f r o m Germany. Edward G r e y was t h e S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s i n B r i t a i n f r o m 1905 u n t i l 1917. He was, t h e r e f o r e , c e r t a i n l y i n a c e n t r a l i n s t i t u t i o n a l p o s i t i o n a t t h e b e g i n -n i n g o f and t h r o u g h o u t most o f t h e War. An e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e documents f i r m l y e s t a b l i s h e s h i m as t h e f o c u s o f d i p l o -m a t i c and p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y d u r i n g t h e months p r e c e e d i n g t h e o u t b r e a k o f h o s t i l i t i e s . Of a t o t a l o f 677 B r i t i s h documents, 463 o r ab o u t 6 8% were a d d r e s s e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o G r e y . Of t h e s e 463, 440 came f r o m B r i t i s h d i p l o m a t s i n f o r e i g n l a n d s , 8 f r o m o t h e r b u r e a u c r a t s , and 15 f r o m n o n - B r i t i s h s o u r c e s . G r ey h i m s e l f s e n t some 131 d i s p a t c h e s and c o m m u n i c a t i o n s t o v a r i o u s b u r e a u c r a t s , b o t h B r i t i s h and f o r e i g n . T h i s l a s t f i g u r e r e p r e s e n t s a b o u t 19% o f a l l t h e documents c o n t a i n e d i n - 31 -t h e B r i t i s h c o l l e c t i o n . The t o t a l number o f messages e i t h e r s e n t o r r e c e i v e d by Grey e q u a l s 594 o r about 87%. Even i f Grey d i d n o t p e r s o n a l l y r e a d o r d r a f t answers f o r some o f t h e communications t h e s h e e r volume o f them a d d r e s s e d t o him and s e n t by him c l e a r l y e s t a b l i s h t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r as a c e n t r a l a u t h o r i t y d u r i n g t h e month b e f o r e t h e War. I n a d d i -t i o n , t h e f i g u r e s q u o t e d above do n o t i n c l u d e t h e v a r i o u s minutes and c o n v e r s a t i o n s r e c o r d e d i n t h e B r i t i s h documents c o l l e c t i o n i n w hich Grey a l s o p l a y e d a l e a d i n g r o l e . O t h e r B r i t i s h government o f f i c i a l s such as c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r s seem t o have t a k e n l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n e v e n t s on t h e European c o n t i n e n t . They seem t o have l e f t t h e manage-ment o f a f f a i r s t h e r e i n Grey's hands. F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e Prime M i n i s t e r , t h e R i g h t H o n o r a b l e H e r b e r t A s q u i t h , o n l y made two c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e B r i t i s h document c o l l e c t i o n , b o t h o f them v e r y s h o r t r e p l i e s t o q u e s t i o n s a d d r e s s e d t o him i n t h e House o f Commons. There a r e no d i r e c t c o n t r i b u -t i o n s from Winston C h u r c h i l l , t h e n F i r s t L o r d o f t h e A d m i r a l t y . The c a b i n e t , t h e government, and t h e n a t i o n were, a t t h e time o f t h e ominous developments i n E u r o p e , t h o r -o u g h l y d i s t r a c t e d by t h e I r i s h Home Rule q u e s t i o n . Only a f t e r the d e l i v e r y o f t h e A u s t r i a n n o t e t o S e r b i a on J u l y 23, 1914 d i d t h e n a t i o n ' s l e a d e r s b e g i n t o p e r c e i v e the magnitude o f the a p p r o a c h i n g c r i s i s . Winston C h u r c h i l l - 32 -e l o q u e n t l y d e s c r i b e s t h e change which came o v e r t h e C a b i n e t and i s worth q u o t i n g a t l e n g t h . The d i s c u s s i o n [on I r e l a n d ] had r e a c h e d i t s i n c o n c l u s i v e end, and t h e C a b i n e t was about t o s e p a r a t e , when t h e q u i e t g r a v e t o n e s o f S i r Edward Grey's v o i c e were h e a r d r e a d i n g a document which had j u s t been b r o u g h t t o him from t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e . I t was t h e A u s t r i a n n o t e t o S e r b i a . He had been r e a d i n g o r speak-i n g f o r s e v e r a l minutes b e f o r e I c o u l d d i s -engage my mind from t h e t e d i o u s and b e w i l d e r i n g debate which had j u s t c l o s e d . We were a l l v e r y t i r e d , b u t g r a d u a l l y as t h e p h r a s e s and s e n -t e n c e s f o l l o w e d one a n o t h e r i m p r e s s i o n s o f a w h o l l y d i f f e r e n t c h a r a c t e r began t o form i n my mind. T h i s n o t e was c l e a r l y an u l t i m a t u m ; b u t i t was an u l t i m a t u m such as had n e v e r been penned i n modern t i m e s . As t h e r e a d i n g p r o -ceeded i t seemed a b s o l u t e l y i m p o s s i b l e t h a t any S t a t e i n t h e w o r l d c o u l d a c c e p t i t , o r t h a t any a c c e p t a n c e , however a b j e c t , would s a t i s f y t h e a g g r e s s o r . The p a r i s h e s o f Fermanagh and Tyrone f a d e d back i n t o t h e m i s t s and s q u a l l s o f I r e l a n d , and a s t r a n g e l i g h t began i m m e d i a t e l y b u t by p e r c e p t i b l e g r a d a t i o n s , t o f a l l and grow upon t h e map o f Europe.1 C l e a r l y a European war was n o t t h e c h i e f c o n c e r n o f e i t h e r C h u r c h i l l o r t h e o t h e r members o f t h e C a b i n e t , a t l e a s t u n t i l t h a t moment on J u l y 24. Up t o t h a t time Grey was t h e o n l y B r i t i s h government o f f i c i a l who took an a c t i v e i n t e r e s t i n the p o s s i b l e consequences o f t h e S a r a j e v o a s s a s s i n a t i o n and even a f t e r w a r d s he seems t o have m a i n t a i n e d a f i r m S i r Winston C h u r c h i l l , The World C r i s i s , New York, C h a r l e s S c r i b n e r ' s Sons, 1928, pp. 204-205. - 33 -c o n t r o l o v e r B r i t i s h p o l i c y , r e l y i n g on h i s d e p a r t m e n t a l o f f i c i a l s and c a b i n e t c o l l e a g u e s f o r a d v i c e and s u p p o r t , b u t n o t l e a d e r s h i p . In Germany t h r e e men appear t o have o c c u p i e d p o s i t i o n s o f l e a d e r s h i p and a u t h o r i t y d u r i n g t h e time p e r i o d under i n -v e s t i g a t i o n . The f i r s t p e r s o n we have d e s i g n a t e d as a l e a d e r i s t h e K a i s e r , W i l l i a m I I . As t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n a l and t h e o r e -t i c a l l y a u t o c r a t i c head o f s t a t e he c e r t a i n l y meets our f i r s t c r i t e r i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e documents i n d i c a t e s he p l a y e d an a c t i v e r o l e i n i n i t i a t i n g and i n f l u e n -c i n g German p o l i c y . W h i l e he s e n t and r e c e i v e d d i r e c t l y r e l a t i v e l y few o f t h e o f f i c i a l documents found i n t h e German c o l l e c t i o n ( f o r i n s t a n c e , he s e n t o u t o v e r h i s own s i g n a t u r e o n l y s e v e n t e e n o u t o f 879 documents) he commented on and r e v i s e d dozens more. I n d i c a t i o n s a r e t h a t a l m o s t a l l impor-t a n t i n f o r m a t i o n r e c e i v e d by t h e C h a n c e l l o r o r t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e was s u b m i t t e d t o him f o r comment, and t h a t most o f f i c i a l d i s p a t c h e s were g i v e n t o him f o r h i s a p p r o v a l b e f o r e t h e y were s e n t . On o c c a s i o n he took complete command and i s s u e d s p e c i f i c o r d e r s h i m s e l f . The d e c i s i o n t o have the German f l e e t r e t u r n t o i t s home base a t K i e l i n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r h o s t i l i t i e s was t h e K a i s e r ' s own, f o r i n s t a n c e . He was, t h e r e f o r e , an i m p o r t a n t f o r c e i n German f o r e i g n p o l i c y and must be p l a c e d i n t h e l e a d e r s h i p c a t e g o r y . - 34 -The German I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r , Dr. von Bethmann-H o l l w e g was a l s o a v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t f i g u r e . As t h e Em-p e r o r ' s c h i e f m i n i s t e r , o f f i c i a l l y r e s p o n s i b l e o n l y t o W i l l i a m I I , he o c c u p i e d an i m p o r t a n t i n s t i t u t i o n a l p o s i t i o n . Moreover, he t o o took a l i v e l y i n t e r e s t i n German f o r e i g n r e l a t i o n s . Of the 879 documents i n t h e German c o l l e c t i o n 60, o r about 7%, were a d d r e s s e d d i r e c t l y t o him, and 102, o r about 12%, were s e n t o u t o v e r h i s s i g n a t u r e . C o r r e s p o n d e n c e i n which he was d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d , t h e n , a c c o u n t f o r n e a r l y 20% o f t h e t o t a l K a u t s k y c o l l e c t i o n , and he a l s o had a c c e s s t o t h e i n f o r m a t i o n which f l o w e d i n t o t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e . Edward Grey's e q u i v a l e n t i n Germany, the German S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s H e r r G o t t l i e b von Jagow, a l s o p l a y e d a p r o m i n e n t r o l e w i t h i n t h e German g o v e r n -ment, a l t h o u g h most commentators on t h e o r i g i n s o f t h e War and on German f o r e i g n p o l i c y have n o t p a i d as much a t t e n t i o n t o him as t o t h e K a i s e r and t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r . He d i d , however, occupy an i m p o r t a n t government p o s t , and l o o k i n g a t t h e documents we s e e t h a t he was b o t h th e r e c i p i e n t and the s o u r c e o f many of t h e d i s p a t c h e s . H e r r Jagow s e n t o u t some 148 messages, o r about 17% o f t h e t o t a l (879) and 32, o r about 4% were a d d r e s s e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o him. I n a d d i t i o n by f a r t h e g r e a t e s t number o f documents i n t h e K a u t s k y c o l -l e c t i o n a d d r e s s e d t o a s i n g l e p l a c e , a r e t h o s e which were s e n t t o the F o r e i g n O f f i c e . A l t h o u g h t h e s e documents do n o t - 35 -d e s i g n a t e a p a r t i c u l a r p e r s o n a l r e c i p i e n t , Jagow, as head o f t h a t o f f i c e , must have h a n d l e d many o f t h e s e communications h i m s e l f a l o n g w i t h t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r and t h e Emperor. H i s v i e w s , t h e n , p r o b a b l y had an i m p o r t a n t b e a r i n g on t h e f o r m a t i o n o f German f o r e i g n p o l i c y and he must be c o n s i d e r e d one o f Germany's l e a d i n g p u b l i c men, p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e e v e n t s p r e c e e d i n g t h e War. We have, t h e r e f o r e , i d e n t i f i e d f o u r government o f f i -c i a l s as l e a d e r s : Edward Grey i n E n g l a n d , W i l l i a m I I , Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg, and H e r r von Jagow i n Germany. Now we s h a l l have t o examine and o u t l i n e t h e p o s i t i o n each o f t h e s e men took w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e imminent War i n g e n e r a l and on p a r t i c u l a r i s s u e s . To t r y t o d e c i d e how each o f t h e f o u r l e a d e r s m e ntioned above was p r e d i s p o s e d towards t h e pre-War i n t e r n a t i o n a l s i t u -a t i o n and h i s c o u n t r y ' s f o r e i g n p o l i c y , a l l o f h i s pronounce-ments, messages, and n o t e s as r e c o r d e d i n t h e document c o l l e c t i o n s were s c r u t i n i z e d and e v a l u a t e d . I n a d d i t i o n , s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s were c o n s u l t e d when i t appeared t h a t t h e y had something t o add. Below we have summarized our f i n d i n g s . Edward Grey - B r i t i s h S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s Throughout t h e time p e r i o d (the end o f June u n t i l t h e f i r s t week o f August) Grey's p o s i t i o n - w a s marked by c a u t i o u s o ptimism. U n t i l t h e v e r y l a s t moment he was c o n v i n c e d t h a t - 36 -i f some s o r t o f m e d i a t i o n c o u l d be a r r a n g e d between t h e European G r e a t Powers, a g e n e r a l war c o u l d be a v e r t e d . He saw B r i t a i n ' s r o l e as t h a t o f t h e calm, o b j e c t i v e p e a c e -maker, and he worked h a r d t o encourage p a t i e n c e and r e s t r a i n t on the p a r t o f t h e d i s p u t i n g n a t i o n s and t h e i r a l l i e s . I n a communication t o S i r F. B e r t i e , t h e B r i t i s h Ambassador t o P a r i s , he w r o t e : I spoke t o M. Cambon to d a y o f my a p p r e h e n s i o n t h a t A u s t r i a m i g h t be f o r c e d by h e r p u b l i c o p i n i o n i n t o some "demarche" a g a i n s t S e r v i a owing t o t h e f e e l i n g a r o u s e d by t h e murder o f the Archduke F r a n z F e r d i n a n d ; and I s a i d t h a t , i n such an e v e n t , we must do a l l we c o u l d t o encourage p a t i e n c e a t S t . P e t e r s b u r g . 2 In a message t o S i r H. Rumbold, B r i t i s h Charge d ' A f f a i r e s a t B e r l i n , he w r o t e : I a s s u r e d P r i n c e Lichnowsky t h a t I would con-t i n u e t h e same p o l i c y as I had p u r s u e d t h r o u g h the B a l k a n c r i s i s , and do my utmost t o p r e v e n t th e o u t b r e a k o f war between t h e G r e a t Powers . . . . He c o u l d a s s u r e h i s Government t h a t I no t o n l y d i d n o t w i s h t o d i s t u r b t h e peace, b u t would a l s o do my utmost t o p r e s e r v e i t . 3 In a n o t h e r l a t e r n o t e t o S i r F. B e r t i e , he wrote: I t o l d M. Cambon o f what I had s a i d t o P r i n c e Lichnowsky y e s t e r d a y as t o t h e n e c e s s i t y o f A u s t r i a making h e r demand as r e a s o n a b l e as p o s s i b l e and making p u b l i c as s t r o n g j u s t i f i -c a t i o n as p o s s i b l e f o r i t . 4 B.D., op. c i t . , p . 30. 3 I b i d . , p. 34. 4 I b i d . , p. 60. - 37 -Edward Grey made s e v e r a l c o n c r e t e p r o p o s a l s f o r med-i a t i o n . On J u l y 22, 1914 he s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e R u s s i a n government communicate d i r e c t l y w i t h A u s t r i a i n o r d e r t o work o u t some agreement by which A u s t r i a c o u l d demand some compensation from S e r b i a w i t h o u t b r i n g i n g S e r b i a ' s a l l y , 5 R u s s i a , i n t o t h e c o n f l i c t . On J u l y 24, 1914 he p r o p o s e d t h a t f o u r G r e a t Powers, Germany, F r a n c e , I t a l y , and G r e a t B r i t a i n , work t o g e t h e r t o m e d i a t e th e d i s p u t e . And on J u l y 31, 1914 he s u g g e s t e d t h a t Germany sound o u t A u s t r i a w h i l e 7 B r i t a i n worked t o r e s t r a i n R u s s i a . Each o f t h e s e p r o p o s a l s was c o n s i d e r e d by t h e n a t i o n s c l o s e t o and i n v o l v e d i n t h e pre-War c o n f l i c t , b u t each was r e j e c t e d f o r numerous r e a s o n s such as the mutual s u s p i c i o n s w h i c h e x i s t e d between t h e T r i p l e A l l i a n c e and t h e T r i p l e E n t e n t e , p o o r communications, and the g e n e r a l p r e s s u r e s o f t i m e and e v e n t s . A s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s " d o v i s h " emphasis on p a t i e n c e and n e g o t i a t i o n was Grey's i n s i s t e n c e t h a t B r i t a i n was n o t committed, s h o u l d a European war b e g i n , t o s u p p o r t e i t h e r the T r i p l e E n t e n t e o r t h e T r i p l e A l l i a n c e . I n f a c t t h i s p o s i t i o n was a b i t o f p o l i t i c a l t r i c k e r y w hich may have added t o the c o n f u s i o n d u r i n g t h e pre-War months. A l t h o u g h Grey r e p e a t e d l y d e n i e d i t , B r i t a i n was a t l e a s t m o r a l l y , i f n o t l e g a l l y , committed t o s u p p o r t i n g F r a n c e i n t h e c a s e o f 6 V I b i d . , p. 64. I b i d . , p. 78. I b i d . , p. 215. - 38 -a German a t t a c k . P a r t o f t h e r e a s o n f o r Grey's r e l u c t a n c e t o t a k e a f i r m s t a n d i n s u p p o r t o f F r a n c e was t h a t t h e s e r i e s o f d i p l o m a t i c and m i l i t a r y m e e t i n g s t h a t had been c o n d u c t e d between t h e two c o u n t r i e s had been i n i t i a t e d and c o n t i n u e d w i t h o u t t h e c o n s e n t and s u p p o r t o f t h e C a b i n e t . A. C e c i l w r i t e s : The m a t t e r seemed t o him [Grey] so u r g e n t , t h e p r e - o c c u p a t i o n o f many o f h i s c o l l e a g u e s w i t h the G e n e r a l E l e c t i o n o f 1906 so g r e a t , t h a t he a u t h o r i s e d t h e s e meetings w i t h o u t s u b m i t t i n g t h e m a t t e r t o t h e C a b i n e t . I t was, c o n s e q u e n t l y , no more t h a n an i n n e r c i r c l e o f m i n i s t e r s t o -g e t h e r w i t h t h e e d i t o r and m i l i t a r y c o r r e s p o n -d e n t o f t h e Times who knew, u n t i l some y e a r s l a t e r , t h a t F r e n c h and B r i t i s h m i l i t a r y e x p e r t s had been d i s c u s s i n g t h e m o b i l i s a t i o n o f a B r i t i s h f o r c e t o meet t h e c o n t i n g e n c y o f a German a t t a c k upon F r a n c e a c r o s s t h e B e l g i a n f r o n t i e r . 8 L a t e r , he e v i d e n t l y r e g r e t t e d t h i s b i t o f c o n s t i t u t i o n a l i r r e g u l a r i t y . N e v e r t h e l e s s Grey c o n t i n u e d u n t i l t h e v e r y l a s t moment t o c l a i m t h a t B r i t a i n had no commitments, and t h a t i t c o u l d a c t as a d i s i n t e r e s t e d , p a c i f i s t i c m e d i a t o r . On June 24, 1914, he wrote t o S i r E. Goschen, t h e B r i t i s h Ambassador i n B e r l i n : I t was q u i t e easy f o r me t o say [ t o P r i n c e L i c h n o w s k y ] , and q u i t e t r u e , t h a t t h e r e A. C e c i l , B r i t i s h F o r e i g n S e c r e t a r i e s , London, G. B e l l and Sons L t d . , 1927, p. 321. - 39 -was no a l l i a n c e ; no agreement committing us t o a c t i o n ; and t h a t a l l the agreements of t h a t c h a r a c t e r t h a t we had w i t h France and R u s s i a had been p u b l i s h e d . 9 Much l a t e r on, a f t e r the A u s t r i a n note had been d e l -i v e r e d to S e r b i a and the s i t u a t i o n was t r u l y r e a c h i n g c r i s i s p r o p o r t i o n s , Grey c o n t i n u e d t o i n s i s t t h a t B r i t a i n was not committed t o any k i n d of p o s i t i o n v i s a v i s t h e o t h e r Great Powers. I n a note t o S i r . F. B e r t i e on J u l y 29, he wrote: I f Germany became i n v o l v e d and France became i n v o l v e d , we had not made up our minds what we should do; i t was a case t h a t we should have t o consider.10 On J u l y 31 he r e a f f i r m e d t o S i r B e r t i e t h a t t h e r e was no 11 pledge y e t t o i n t e r v e n e on the s i d e of France. L e t us b r i e f l y r e v i e w , then, Grey's "known" p o s i t i o n s He was always h o p e f u l of s o l v i n g the European problems w i t h -out r e s o r t t o v i o l e n c e . He r e p e a t e d l y emphasized the pos-s i b i l i t i e s of m e d i a t i o n and n e g o t i a t i o n , and put f o r t h s e v e r a l concrete p r o p o s a l s i n t h i s r e g a r d . He r e p e a t e d l y a f f i r m e d B r i t a i n ' s o f f i c i a l non-alignment i n the European c o n f l i c t . 9 10 B .D. , op. c i t . , p. :4. I b i d . , p. 180. - ^ I b i d . , p. 220 . - 40 -W i l l i a m I I - Emperor o f Germany The K a i s e r o f Germany, W i l l i a m I I , was n o t n e a r l y so c o n s i s t e n t as Edward Grey. V i r g i n i a Cowles c l a i m s t h a t h i s h i g h l y e m o t i o n a l n a t u r e took c o n t r o l o f h i s words and a c t i o n s a f t e r he r e c e i v e d word o f t h e S a r a j e v o a s s a s s i n a t i o n . She w r i t e s : But now W i l l i a m I I had changed. He seemed t o have l o s t a l l c o n t r o l . He threw c a u t i o n t o t h e winds, and a l l o w e d a sense o f o u t r a g e t o d i r e c t e v e r y t h i n g he t h o u g h t and s a i d . 1 2 I n s p i t e o f h i s a p p a r e n t i n s t a b i l i t y t h e r e a r e a few i d e n t i -f i a b l e a t t i t u d e s w hich t h e Emperor r e p e a t e d l y expounded and which were r e l a t i v e l y c o n s t a n t , a t l e a s t from t h e time o f t h e a s s a s s i n a t i o n June 28, 1914 u n t i l t h e S e r b i a n answer t o t h e A u s t r i a n u l t i m a t u m on J u l y 25. E a r l y i n the game he p r o c l a i m e d h i s l o y a l t y , perhaps r u e f u l l y , t o t h e A u s t r i a n r e g i m e . On J u l y 5, 1914 he gave h i s infamous "blank check" o f s u p p o r t t o A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y . V i r g i n i a Cowles quotes t h e A u s t r o - H u n g a r i a n Ambassador a t B e r l i n , Count Szogyeny, as w r i t i n g : H i s M a j e s t y a u t h o r i s e d me t o r e p o r t t h a t i n t h i s c a se a l s o we c o u l d r e c k o n on Germany's f u l l sup-p o r t . . . . H i s M a j e s t y s a i d he u n d e r s t o o d how h a r d F r a n c i s J o s e p h , w i t h h i s well-known l o v e o f peace, would f i n d i t t o i n v a d e S e r b i a ; b u t i f we had r e a l l y d e c i d e d t h a t m i l i t a r y a c t i o n a g a i n s t S e r b i a was n e c e s s a r y , he would be s o r r y i f we l e f t unused t h e p r e s e n t moment which was so f a v -o u r a b l e t o us.13 V. Cowles, op. c i t . , p. 311. X J I b l d . , p. 313. - 41 -On J u l y 14, 1914, t h e Emperor r e a f f i r m e d t h i s l o y a l t y . To t h e Emperor o f A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y he w r o t e : . . . you w i l l f i n d me and my Empire s t a n d i n g f a i t h f u l l y a t y o u r s i d e i n t h i s d a rk h o u r , i n f u l l a c c o r d w i t h o u r o l d and t r i e d f r i e n d s h i p and w i t h t h e o b l i g a t i o n s o f o u r a l l i a n c e . x ^ A n o t h e r o f the K a i s e r ' s a t t i t u d e s w h i c h , w h i l e i t may have been b o r n i n anger, remained s t r o n g l y e v i d e n t i n h i s communications and n o t e s a t l e a s t u n t i l J u l y 25, was h i s o v e r t a g g r e s s i v e n e s s towards S e r b i a . From soon a f t e r t h e a s s a s s i n a t i o n he was i n f a v o u r o f some d i r e c t , h o s t i l e a c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e "band o f r e g i c i d e s . " On June 30, i n a n o t a t i o n , he w r i t e s : "The Serbs must be d i s p o s e d o f , and t h a t r i g h t 15 soon." He d e n x g r a t e d Serbxan attempts a t a p o l o g y and a s s u r a n c e o f compensation t o A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y . On a communi-c a t i o n from the German M i n i s t e r a t B e l g r a d e t o t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r e x p l a i n i n g t h e S e r b i a n p o s i t i o n , t h e Emperor wrote words such as "Bosh!" and "Hot a i r ! " . On J u l y 23 he a g a i n e x p r e s s e d h i s h a t r e d o f t h e Serbs by s a y i n g t h a t " S e r b i a i s n o t h i n g b u t a band o f r o b b e r s t h a t must be s e i z e d 17 f o r x t s crxmes." 14 . 15 K.D., op. c i t . , p. 90. I b i d . , p. 61. 1 6 I b i d . , p. 96. 1 7 r b i d . , p. 163 - 42 -In a d d i t i o n t o h a t i n g t h e Serb s t h e Emperor was a l s o s t r o n g l y s u s p i c i o u s and f r i g h t e n e d o f F r a n c e and E n g l a n d , and p a r t i c u l a r l y R u s s i a , and perhaps w i t h good r e a s o n . A f t e r a l l , a r t i c l e s h o s t i l e t o Germany had been a p p e a r i n g i n t h e R u s s i a n p r e s s f o r q u i t e some t i m e , and h i s s u s p i c i o n s t h a t B r i t a i n and F r a n c e had n e g o t i a t e d s e c r e t m i l i t a r y agreements were e v e n t u a l l y p r o v e n t o be t r u e . H i s f e a r i s e v i d e n t i n numerous n o t a t i o n s and messages. On June 13, where t h e German Ambassador a t S t . P e t e r s b u r g w r i t i n g t o t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r wrote " R u s s i a i s p r e p a r e d " t h e 18 K a i s e r n o t e s " A g a i n s t u s ! " . On June 14 he w r i t e s : W e l l ! A t l a s t t h e R u s s i a n s have shown t h e i r hand! Whatever German s t i l l r e f u s e s t o b e l i e v e t h a t i n R u s s o - G a l i c i a t h e y a r e w o r k i n g a t h i g h p r e s s u r e f o r an e a r l y war w i t h u s , o r t h a t we s h o u l d adopt t h e n e c e s s a r y measures f o r s e l f -p r o t e c t i o n , d e s e r v e s t o be s e n t a t once t o t h e mad-house a t D a l l d o r f ! l 9 On J u l y 13 t h e German M i n i s t e r i n S t . P e t e r s b u r g , P o u r t a l e s , wrote t o t h e Emperor: T h i s r e s t r a i n t [to admit t h e common danger t o R u s s i a and Germany o f r e g i c i d e ] can o n l y be e x p l a i n e d by t h e u n m i t i g a b l e h a t r e d o f t h e M i n i s t e r [Russian-Sazanov] f o r A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y , a h a t r e d which i s c l o u d i n g more and more a l l c l e a r and calm judgement h e r e . 20 The Emperor's comment was " R i g h t ! " . I b i d . , p. 53. 1 9 l b i d . , p. 54. I b i d . , p. 117. - 43 -A f i n a l n o t a b l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c e x h i b i t e d by t h e Emperor was h i s u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o e n t e r i n t o any n e g o t i a t i o n s i n an attempt t o a v e r t a c l a s h between A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y and S e r b i a . I n a n o t e made on J u l y 10 he q u o t e d F r e d e r i c k t h e G r e a t as s a y i n g : I am a g a i n s t a l l c o u n c i l s o f war and c o n f e r e n c e s , s i n c e t h e more t i m i d p a r t y always has t h e upper h a n d . 2 1 On J u l y 24 he w r o t e : I w i l l n o t j o i n i n i t [Grey's p r o p o s a l f o r f o u r power m e d i a t i o n o f t h e d i s p u t e ] u n l e s s A u s t r i a e x p r e s s l y a s k s me t o , w h i c h i s n o t l i k e l y . I n v i t a l q u e s t i o n s and t h o s e o f honor, one does n o t c o n s u l t w i t h o t h e r s . 2 2 F l o t o w , th e German Ambassador a t Rome, wrote t o t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e on J u l y 27, t h e f o l l o w i n g : S i r Edward Grey wants t o u n i t t h e Ambassadors o f Germany, F r a n c e , I t a l y , and R u s s i a i n some a c t i o n f o r t h e p r e s e r v a t i o n o f peace. 23 The Emperor's comment was "I w i l l n o t go i n t o a n y t h i n g . " The above mentioned a t t i t u d e s were r e a s o n a b l y c o n s t a n t and u n m i s t a k e a b l e u n t i l a f t e r t h e S e r b i a n r e p l y t o t h e Aus-t r i a n n o t e on J u l y 25. A t t h a t time h i s former h o s t i l e , a g g r e s s i v e s t a n c e towards S e r b i a a l l b u t d i s a p p e a r e d . H i s comments on the S e r b i a n r e p l y were: 2 1 I b i d . , p. 94. 2 3 I b i d . , p. 238. 22 I b i d . , p. 185. _ 44 -A b r i l l i a n t p e r f o r m a n c e f o r a t i m e l i m i t o f o n l y 48 h o u r s . T h i s i s more t h a n one c o u l d have e x p e c t e d . A g r e a t m o r a l v i c t o r y f o r V i e n n a ; b u t w i t h i t e v e r y r e a s o n f o r war d rops away, and G i e s l m i g h t have remained q u i e t l y i n B e l g r a d e ! On t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h i s I s h o u l d n e v e r have o r d e r e d m o b i l i z a t i o n . 2 4 V i r g i n i a Cowles c l a i m s t h a t t h e Emperor's r e a c t i o n was an e m o t i o n a l one s p u r r e d by f r i g h t . She w r i t e s : He [ W i l l i a m I I ] saw a t once t h a t Germany and A u s t r i a were b e i n g p l a c e d i n an i n v i d i o u s p o s i -t i o n by t h e i r uncompromising a t t i t u d e towards the S e r b i a n n o t e . Even more s i g n i f i c a n t , he once a g a i n was s e i z e d by f r i g h t . He had i n f r o n t o f him Grey's i c y i n t e r v i e w w i t h P r i n c e Lichnowsky, i n which t h e F o r e i g n S e c r e t a r y i n -s i s t e d t h a t t h e key t o t h e s i t u a t i o n l a y i n B e r l i n and t h a t i f Germany d e s i r e d peace he was c o n v i n c e d t h a t she c o u l d r e s t r a i n A u s t r i a . . . . The d i s p a t c h had a p r o f o u n d e f f e c t on W i l l i a m I I . He d i d n o t want a European war, o n l y a European v i c t o r y . And he s u d d e n l y saw t h a t he was s t a n d i n g f a r c l o s e r t o t h e edge o f t h e p r e c i p i c e t h a n he had imagined.25 I n a r e v e r s a l o f h i s p r e v i o u s l i n e o f t h o u g h t and speech th e Emperor even p u t f o r w a r d h i s own peace p r o p o s a l . H i s s u g g e s t i o n was t h a t A u s t r i a be a l l o w e d t o t a k e B e l g r a d e as a h o s t a g e u n t i l S e r b i a had met t h e p r o m i s e s o f i t s r e p l y . Once the p romises had been f u l f i l l e d t h e causes o f war would have d i s a p p e a r e d . A t t h a t t i m e , he h i m s e l f would m e d i a t e 2 6 between A u s t r i a and S e r b i a t o r e s t o r e peace t o the a r e a . 24 I b i d p. 254. 25 V. Cowles, op. c i t . , p. 329 . 26 K.D., op. c i t pp. 273-4. - 45 -W i l l i a m I I ' s r e s e r v o i r o f p a c i f i c i s m and g o o d w i l l was, however, s h a l l o w . H i s m e d i a t i o n p r o p o s a l and change o f h e a r t came to o l a t e . A u s t r i a n and R u s s i a n m o b i l i z a t i o n s were soon underway and t h e pace o f e v e n t s began t o t a k e c o n t r o l o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . On J u l y 30, j u s t f i v e days a f t e r t h e S e r b i a n r e p l y , t h e Emperor, f a c e d w i t h R u s s i a n and A u s t r i a n m o b i l i z a t i o n , q u i t h i s r o l e as m e d i a t o r . By t h e morning o f t h e t h i r t i e t h he had r e v e r t e d t o h i s p r e v i o u s b e l l i g e r e n t s u s p i c i o n , minus t h e b r a v a d o o f h i s e a r l i e r s t a t e -ments. I n an u n u s u a l l y l o n g n o t a t i o n he e x p r e s s e s h i s con-v i c t i o n t h a t R u s s i a , F r a n c e , and B r i t a i n had been f o l l o w i n g a s e c r e t p o l i c y o f " c i r c u m s c r i p t i o n " a l l a l o n g . He w r i t e s : F o r I have no doubt l e f t about i t : E n g l a n d , R u s s i a , and F r a n c e have a g r e e d among t h e m s e l v e s - a f t e r l a y i n g t h e f o u n d a t i o n s o f t h e causus f o e d e r i s f o r us t h r o u g h A u s t r i a - t o t a k e the A u s t r o - S e r b i a n c o n f l i c t f o r an excuse f o r waging a War o f e x t e r m i n a t i o n a g a i n s t us.27 In s p i t e o f t h e o b v i o u s i n c o n s i s t e n c y o f h i s v i e w s , i t seems t o me t h a t we would be f a i r l y s a f e i n assuming t h a t t h e Emperor's "known p o s i t i o n " i s w e l l e x p r e s s e d i n t h e sum-m a t i o n p r e s e n t e d above o f h i s p r e - J u l y 25 o p i n i o n s : l o y a l t y t o A u s t r i a , a g g r e s s i v e n e s s towards S e r b i a , f e a r and s u s p i -c i o n o f t h e o t h e r G r e a t Powers, and h e s i t a n c y t o c o n f e r . These were the views which he h e l d f o r t h e l o n g e s t s i n g l e p e r i o d o f time j u s t b e f o r e t h e War, and t h e y were e s s e n t i a l l y I b i d . , p. 350. - 46 -t h e ones which he r e v e r t e d t o a f t e r h i s b r i e f change o f h e a r t . Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg - I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r o f Germany I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r von Bethmann-Hollweg 1s p o s i t i o n was more c o n s e r v a t i v e t h a n t h a t o f t h e Emperor. A l t h o u g h he was c a u t i o u s and r a t h e r c o o l towards Germany's enemies he was n o t n e a r l y so r e a d y t o b e l i e v e t h a t t h e y were s e c r e t l y p l o t t i n g the demise o f h i s n a t i o n . On June 16, he w rote t o Lichnowsky, t h e German Ambassador i n E n g l a n d , ". . . I do n o t b e l i e v e t h a t R u s s i a i s p l a n n i n g an e a r l y war a g a i n s t u s . " W h i l e he t a c i t l y a g r e e d w i t h t h e Emperor's " b l a n k - c h e c k " o f s u p p o r t f o r A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y , he d i d n o t e x p r e s s h i s d i s l i k e o f the Serbs i n t h e same e m o t i o n a l , p r o v o c a t i v e way t h a t W i l l i a m d i d . He wanted t o see S e r b i a p u n i s h e d , b u t he was w e l l aware o f t h e . d a n g e r s i n h e r e n t i n an A u s t r o - S e r b i a n c l a s h T h e r e f o r e , he worked towards t h e l o c a l i z a t i o n o f t h e c o n f l i c t On J u l y 16 he wrote t o t h e German S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e o f A l s a c e - L o r r a i n e , Roedern: I n the e v e n t o f an A u s t r o - S e r b i a n c o n f l i c t i t w i l l be o f t h e utmost i m p o r t a n c e t o l o c a l i z e t h i s d i f f e r e n c e . 2 9 ^ I b i d . , p. 55. 2 9 I b i d . , p. 120 - 47 -Bethmann-Hollweg was n o t e a g e r , however, f o r Germany t o e n t e r i n t o any n e g o t i a t i o n s f o r t h e s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e d i s p u t e , a t l e a s t n o t u n t i l a f t e r t h e S e r b i a n r e p l y t o t h e A u s t r i a n u l t i -matum. He c o n t i n u e d t o urge F r a n c e and B r i t a i n t o r e s t r a i n S e r b i a n r e p l y on J u l y 27, p r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s and t h e r e a l i z a t i o n t h a t a g e n e r a l war was imminent f o r c e d him t o r e c o n s i d e r t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f n e g o t i a t i o n . A f t e r r e c e i v i n g a communication from Lichnowsky i n d i c a t i n g G r e y 's i m p a t i e n c e he wrote t o t h e Ambassador a t V i e n n a : S i n c e we have a l r e a d y r e f u s e d one E n g l i s h p r o p o s a l f o r a c o n f e r e n c e , i t i s i m p o s s i b l e f o r us t o waive a l i m i n e t h i s E n g l i s h sugges-t i o n a l s o . By r e f u s i n g e v e r y p r o p o s i t i o n f o r m e d i a t i o n , we s h o u l d be h e l d r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the c o n f l a g r a t i o n by t h e whole w o r l d , and be s e t as t h e o r i g i n a l i n s t i g a t o r s o f t h e war. T h a t would a l s o make our p o s i t i o n i m p o s s i b l e i n our own c o u n t r y , where we must appear as h a v i n g been f o r c e d i n t o war. Our s i t u a t i o n i s a l l t h e more d i f f i c u l t , inasmuch as S e r b i a has a p p a r e n t l y y i e l d e d t o a v e r y g r e a t d e g r e e . T h e r e f o r e we ca n n o t r e f u s e t h e m e d i a t o r ' s r o l e , and must submit t h e E n g l i s h p r o p o s a l t o t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e V i e n n a C a b i n e t , e s p e c i a l l y as London and P a r i s c o n t i n u e t o make t h e i r i n -f l u e n c e f e l t i n P e t e r s b u r g . 3 1 As i t became o b v i o u s t h a t t h e c o n f l i c t c o u l d n o t be i s o l a t e d , and t h a t t h e m e d i a t i o n attempts were t o o l i t t l e , t o o l a t e , Bethmann-Hollweg t u r n e d h i s a t t e n t i o n more and R u s s i a i n t h e hope o f l o c a l i z i n g t h e c o n f l i c t . 30 A f t e r t h e 30 I b i d . , pp. 209-10. 31 I b i d p. 256. * / - 48 -more away from t r y i n g t o a v o i d the war, t o t r y i n g t o j u s t i f y Germany's p o s i t i o n and l a y the weight of the blame upon R u s s i a and i t s a l l i e s . I n another telegram t o the German Ambassador i n Vienna, w h i l e emphasizing the importance of A u s t r i a making known t o Germany and t o the o t h e r Great Powers i t s p l a n s , he again p o i n t s out t h a t the blame must l i e w i t h R u s s i a . He w r i t e s : I t i s i m p e r a t i v e t h a t the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the e v e n t u a l e x t e n s i o n of the war among those n a t i o n s not o r i g i n a l l y immediately concerned should, under a l l c i r c u m s t a n c e s , f a l l on Russia.32 As the time grew s h o r t , the C h a n c e l l o r made a s e r i e s of l a s t minute p r o p o s a l s designed t o head o f f a l l - o u t con-f l i c t , or a t l e a s t make i t appear as though Germany were t r y i n g t o a v o i d g e n e r a l war. On J u l y 29, he proposed t h a t B r i t a i n openly d e c l a r e i t s n e u t r a l i t y i n the c o n f l i c t w h i l e Germany fought a d e f e n s i v e war a g a i n s t France and R u s s i a , 33 guaranteeing not t o take any French European t e r r i t o r y . On J u l y 30, r e a l i z i n g B r i t a i n would f i g h t a g a i n s t Germany, 3 4 he u r g e n t l y proposed m e d i a t i o n o f the c o n f l i c t i n Vienna. The Austro-Hungarians, however, seemed determined t o drag Germany i n t o a European war, a f a c t which g r e a t l y angered the C h a n c e l l o r . I n a f i n a l , l a s t - m i n u t e attempt t o a v e r t c a t -astrophe, he proposed t h a t England guarantee w i t h i t s f o r c e s , 3 2 I b i d . , p. 288. 3 3 I b i d . , pp. 327-8. 3 4 I b i d . , p.345. - 49 -F r a n c e ' s n e u t r a l i t y w h i l e Germany con t e n d e d w i t h R u s s i a on 35 t h e e a s t e r n f r o n t . T h i s p r o p o s a l was, o f c o u r s e , q u i t e u n a c c e p t a b l e t o F r a n c e and t o E n g l a n d . In s p i t e o f h i s h i g h government rank and o b v i o u s a c t i v i t y i n t h e e v e n t s l e a d i n g up t o t h e War, t h e German C h a n c e l l o r seems t o have been much more o f a b u r e a u c r a t i c 3 S t y p e t h a n a l e a d e r s h i p t y p e . Many o f h i s communications were s i m p l y second-hand t r a n s f e r s o f i n f o r m a t i o n t o and from t h e Emperor. He had a t e n d e n c y t o i n t e r p r e t t h i n g s a c c o r d i n g t o h i s own "wooden l o g i c " b u t he seldom e x p r e s s e d a c l e a r p e r s o n a l p o s i t i o n as d i d t h e Emperor. He was c o n c e r n e d more w i t h t h e d e t a i l s o f t a c t i c s r a t h e r t h a n w i t h p o s i t i v e p l a n n i n g . H i s s u g g e s t i o n s seem t o be amalgams o f o t h e r p e o p l e ' s i d e a s r a t h e r t h a n o r i g i n a l , c r e a t i v e t h o u g h t s , e x c e p t f o r some o f h i s l a s t - m i n u t e attempts t o a v e r t war, which, f o r t h e most p a r t , were c l e a r l y r i d i c u l o u s . We c l a s s i f y him as a " l e a d e r , " t h e n , w i t h c a u t i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , l e t us summarize h i s a p p a r e n t p o s i t i o n s as i n d i c a t e d by t h e documents. F i r s t l y , he was n o t so s u s -p i c i o u s and f e a r f u l o f t h e R u s s i a n s as t h e K a i s e r . S e c o n d l y , 3 5 I b i d . , p. 452. 3 6 F o r i n s t a n c e , Neumann r e f e r s t o Bethmann-Hollweg as an " a c q u i e s c e n t b u r e a u c r a t . " See'Neumann i n C o l e , op. c i t . , p. 354. - 50 -he b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e A u s t r o - S e r b i a n c o n f l i c t c o u l d be l o c a l i z e d and he c o u n t e d on B r i t a i n and F r a n c e t o r e s t r a i n R u s s i a . T h i r d l y , he was c o o l , b u t n o t opposed, t o t h e i d e a o f n e g o t i a t i o n u n t i l t h e danger o f Germany's p o s i t i o n became o b v i o u s , and t h e n he d e c i d e d , a t f i r s t r e l u c t a n t l y , and t h e n d e s p a r a t e l y t h a t Germany must p o s i t i v e l y encourage m e d i a t i o n i n V i e n n a . F o u r t h l y , s h o u l d war b r e a k o u t he was d e t e r m i n e d t h a t t h e blame s h o u l d be a t t a c h e d t o R u s s i a . Her von Jagow - German S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s The German S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s propounded much the same p o s i t i o n s as t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r . Jagow was, however, even more o f a b u r e a u c r a t , even more c o n c e r n e d w i t h minor d e t a i l s . Many o f h i s communications were s i m p l y r e p o r t s o f what had been happening o r r e q u e s t s f o r i n f o r m a t i o n . He seldom g i v e s h i s own p e r s o n a l views and u s u a l l y r e f e r s t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i n any p a r t i c u l a r i n -s t a n c e as "we," p resumably r e f e r r i n g t o h i m s e l f , t h e C h a n c e l l o r , perhaps th e Emperor, and t h e o t h e r members o f t h e German government. A t one p o i n t he was even r e q u i r e d by the Emperor t o make the momentous d e c i s i o n as t o whether o r n o t the government s h o u l d send o f f t h e customary t e l e g r a m o f 37 b i r t h d a y c o n g r a t u l a t i o n s t o t h e K i n g o f S e r b i a ! One o f K.D., op. c i t . , pp. 95 and 97. - 51 -h i s d u t i e s seems t o have been t r y i n g t o g e t h i s d i p l o m a t s t o i n f l u e n c e t h e f o r e i g n p r e s s i n Germany's f a v o r , sometimes 3 8 w i t h t h e use o f o u t r i g h t b r i b e s ! We s h a l l n o t c o n s i d e r h i s o p i n i o n s and p o s i t i o n s i n g r e a t d e t a i l , t h e n , b u t we s h a l l o u t l i n e them. H i s most s t r o n g l y h e l d c o n v i c t i o n seems t o have been t h a t t h e A u s t r o -S e r b i a n c o n f l i c t s h o u l d r e m a i n l o c a l i z e d . L i k e Bethmann-Hol l w e g and t h e Emperor he coun t e d on B r i t a i n t o r e s t r a i n R u s s i a and F r a n c e . He a l s o f e l t t h a t t a c t i c s were p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t and t h a t A u s t r i a s h o u l d p u b l i s h e v i d e n c e t o i n d i c a t e i t s case a g a i n s t S e r b i a , and always appear t o be t h e a g g r i e v e d p a r t y . T h a t way R u s s i a , and t h e r e f o r e Germany, c o u l d be more e a s i l y k e p t out o f t h e c o n f l i c t . L i k e t h e C h a n c e l l o r he wanted t o make s u r e t h a t any r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r e s c a l a t i o n o f t h e c o n f l i c t f e l l on R u s s i a ' s s h o u l d e r s . One o f h i s o t h e r c h i e f c o n c erns was t h a t A u s t r i a s h o u l d make s u r e t h a t I t a l y remained f a v o r a b l y d i s p o s e d toward the T r i p l e A l l i a n c e . He was a l s o w o r r i e d about t h e r e l a t i v e l y p e t t y m a t t e r o f t h e a l i g n m e n t o f t h e o t h e r B a l k a n s t a t e s such as B u l g a r i a . I n g e n e r a l he was c o n v i n c e d t h a t A u s t r i a s h o u l d t a k e some f i r m s t e p s a g a i n s t S e r b i a , b u t h i s e n t h u s i a s m h e r e was tempered by a s u s p i c i o n t h a t , s h o u l d t h e c o n f l i c t e s c a l a t e , B r i t a i n would f i g h t a g a i n s t Germany a l o n g w i t h R u s s i a and F r a n c e . I b i d . , pp. 99 and 111. CHAPTER 4 INCOMING COMMUNICATIONS Having now i d e n t i f i e d f o u r p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s and t h r e e known l e a d e r s h i p p o s i t i o n s ( c o u n t i n g Bethmann-Hollweg's and Jagow's as e s s e n t i a l l y t h e same p o s i t i o n ) we t u r n t o an i n -v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e k i n d o f a d v i c e w hich t h e y r e c e i v e d f r o m t h o s e o f l e s s e r a u t h o r i t y s u r r o u n d i n g them. D i d any o f t h i s a d v i c e c o n t r a d i c t t h e i r own p o s i t i o n s ? We s h a l l b e g i n w i t h Edward Grey. Perhaps i t would be u s e f u l h e r e t o r e v i e w i n p o i n t form h i s g e n e r a l s t a n c e . 1. r e a s o n a b l y o p t i m i s t i c about r e a c h i n g a p e a c e f u l s o l u t i o n . 2. emphasis on m e d i a t i o n and n e g o t i a t i o n . 3. r e p e a t e d l y s t a t e d t h a t B r i t a i n was n o t bound t o any s i d e . 4. h e s i t a n t t o make o v e r t p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r war. We s h a l l be l o o k i n g , t h e r e f o r e , f o r p r o p o s a l s which o b v i o u s l y c o n t r a d i c t any o f t h e s e p o i n t s . To g e t a g e n e r a l p i c t u r e o f t h e t y p e o f i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w i n g between Grey and h i s a d v i s o r s , a rough s y s t e m a t i c s u r v e y o f t h e B r i t i s h Document c o l l e c t i o n was c a r r i e d o u t . A number from one t o t e n was randomly s e l e c t e d and s e r v e d as a s t a r t i n g p o i n t . I n t h i s case the number was seven so we began w i t h document number seven. A f t e r t h a t , e v e r y t e n t h document up u n t i l J u l y 24, t h e day a f t e r t h e d e l i v e r y o f - 53 -t h e A u s t r i a n u l t i m a t u m , was examined. A f t e r J u l y 24 e v e r y f i f t e e n t h document was examined, m a i n l y because i t was r o u g h l y a t t h a t time t h a t t h e volume o f d i p l o m a t i c c o r r e s -pondence p e r day i n c r e a s e d s h a r p l y , and t h e r e f o r e i t was f e l t t h a t a s m a l l e r sample would be s u f f i c i e n t f o r our p u r p o s e s . Each document was c a t e g o r i z e d a c c o r d i n g t o i t s s o u r c e , i t s r e c i p i e n t , t h e d a t e i t was s e n t , t h e t y p e o f c o n t e n t i t c o n t a i n e d ( i . e . f a c t u a l , i n t e r p r e t i v e , p r e s c r i p t i v e ) , and whether o r n o t i t c o n t r a d i c t e d Grey's p o l i c i e s . The sample s i z e t u r n e d o u t t o be 48 o r about 7.2% o f a l l t h e documents. The sample i n c l u d e d communications from m i l i t a r y s o u r c e s , d i p l o m a t s , f o r e i g n o f f i c e b u r e a u c r a t s , and f o r e i g n o f f i c i a l s . Most were a d d r e s s e d t o Grey, which i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g s i n c e about 6 8% o f t h e t o t a l c o l l e c t i o n was a d d r e s s e d t o him ( i n our sample 70.83% were a d d r e s s e d t o h i m ) . The f i n d i n g s were r a t h e r s u r p r i s i n g . None o f t h e 48 documents examined con-t a i n e d any o b v i o u s o r o v e r t c r i t i c i s m o r a d v i c e c o n t r a d i c t o r y t o Grey's p o l i c i e s . I n f a c t , t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e documents were s t r i c t l y f a c t u a l i n c o n t e n t , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e from d i p l o m a t s s t a t i o n e d o v e r s e a s . T h e i r r o l e seems t o have been t o i n f o r m r a t h e r t han t o a d v i s e . We d i d n o t s t o p our i n v e s t i g a t i o n h e r e w i t h t h i s crude sample. The e n t i r e c o l l e c t i o n was s c r u t i n i z e d s e v e r a l t i m e s , and a l t h o u g h the r e s e a r c h e r r e a d i l y admits t o n o t h a v i n g r e a d e v e r y s i n g l e document, t h e e x a m i n a t i o n was f a i r l y t h o r o u g h . - 54 -Nothing was found t o c o n t r a d i c t our e a r l i e r i m p r e s s i o n con-c e r n i n g d i p l o m a t s . They p r o v i d e d l o t s o f i n f o r m a t i o n con-c e r n i n g e v e n t s , newspaper r e p o r t s , and meetings i n the area where they were s t a t i o n e d , but v e r y l i t t l e a d v i c e . Perhaps we might i n s e r t here a couple of examples chosen i n a r a n -domish l e a f i n g through the documents. S i r W. Rumbold t o S i r E. Grey, J u l y 2, 1914 ( B r i t i s h Charge d ' A f f a i r e s a t B e r l i n ) I t i s o f f i c i a l l y announced t h a t the Emperor has owing t o a s l i g h t i n d i s p o s i t i o n , g i v e n up the i n t e n t i o n of going t o Vienna t o a t t e n d the f u n e r -a l of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Great s t r e s s i s l a i d i n the press announcements on the f a c t t h a t t h i s d e c i s i o n has i n no way been i n f l u e n c e d by p o l i t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s o r by f e a r f o r the s a f e t y of the Emperor.1 S i r R. Rodd t o S i r E. Grey, J u l y 26, 191.4 ( B r i t i s h Ambassador at Rome) Your telegram No. 232 to P a r i s of 26 J u l y : A u s t r i a and S e r v i a . M i n i s t e r f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s welcomes your p r o p o s a l f o r a conference, and w i l l i n s t r u c t I t a l i a n Ambassador t o n i g h t a c c o r d i n g l y . As regards second paragraph, w h i l e agreeing i n p r i n c i p l e , he t h i n k s t h a t i t would be prudent t h a t I t a l y i n her p o s i t i o n as an a l l y should r e f e r t o B e r l i n and Vienna be-f o r e u ndertaking f o r m a l l y t o request the l a t t e r to suspend a l l a c t i o n . A u s t r i a n Ambas-sador has informed I t a l i a n Government t h i s evening t h a t M i n i s t e r i n Belgrade had been r e -c a l l e d , but t h i s d i d not imply d e c l a r a t i o n of war. 2 B.D., op. c i t . , p. 17. 2 I b i d . , p. 107. - 55 -Edward Grey d i d e n c o u n t e r some o p p o s i t i o n t o h i s p o l i c i e s from b u r e a u c r a t s i n t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e , however. S i r E y r e Crowe, t h e A s s i s t a n t U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , was p e r h a p s t h e l e a d i n g s c e p t i c . V i r g i n i a Cowles r e f e r s t o him as "a r a b i d Germanophobe who f o r y e a r s 3 had been t a l k i n g about 'the German menace *." He took a much more s u s p i c i o u s , m i l i t a n t l i n e t h a n d i d Grey. By J u l y 24 he was u r g i n g t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r t o t a k e a much f i r m e r s t a n d i n s u p p o r t o f R u s s i a and F r a n c e a g a i n s t Germany. He w r i t e s : The p o i n t t h a t m a t t e r s i s whether Germany i s o r n o t a b s o l u t e l y d e t e r m i n e d t o have t h i s war now, (my emphasis) There i s s t i l l a chance t h a t she can be made t o h e s i t a t e , i f she can be i n d u c e d t o apprehend t h a t the war w i l l f i n d E n g l a n d by t h e s i d e o f F r a n c e and R u s s i a . 4 He p r o p o s e d t h a t B r i t a i n announce t h a t i t would m o b i l i z e t h e F l e e t as soon as any o t h e r power m o b i l i z e d , a p r o p o s a l w i t h 5 which Edward Grey i m m e d i a t e l y d i s a g r e e d . From t h i s p o i n t onwards, however, S i r E y r e Crowe p e r s i s t s i n e x p r e s s i n g h i s "hawkish" a t t i t u d e s . On J u l y 31 he w r i t e s : T h i s [the r e p o r t e d movement o f t h e 1 s t G r e n a d i e r r e g i m e n t o f t h e Saxony army t o t h e S i l e s i a n f r o n t i e r ] i s d e c i d e d l y omi-nous. C l e a r l y , a l t h o u g h Germany a v o i d s the use o f the word " m o b i l i z a t i o n " she i s d o i n g th e t h i n g . 6 Cowles, op. c i t . , p. 327. B.D., op. c i t . , p. 81. 5 I b i d . , p. 82. 6 I b i d . , p. 199. - 56 -and: I f and when, however, i t i s c e r t a i n t h a t F r a n c e and R u s s i a c a n n o t a v o i d t h e war, and a r e g o i n g i n t o i t , my o p i n i o n , f o r what i t i s w o r t h , i s t h a t B r i t i s h i n t e r -e s t s r e q u i r e us t o t a k e our p l a c e b e s i d e them as A l l i e s , and i n t h a t c a s e our i n t e r v e n t i o n s h o u l d be immediate and d e c i d e d . 7 The A s s i s t a n t U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y ' s a d v i s o r y e f f o r t s c u l m i n a t e i n a l o n g memorandum s e n t t o Edward Grey on J u l y 31. I n i t S i r E y r e argues most s t r o n g l y i n f a v o r o f B r i t a i n e n t e r i n g the war on t h e s i d e o f F r a n c e and R u s s i a . A few e x t r a c t e d p h r a s e s s h o u l d be enough t o i n d i c a t e i t s t e n o r and d i r e c t i o n . The t h e o r y t h a t E n g l a n d cannot engage i n a b i g war means h e r a b d i c a t i o n as an i n d e p e n d e n t S t a t e . . . . The argument t h a t t h e r e i s no w r i t t e n bond b i n d i n g us t o F r a n c e i s s t r i c t l y c o r r e c t . . . . But t h e E n t e n t e has been made. . . . The whole p o l i c y o f t h e E n t e n t e can have no meaning i f i t does n o t s i g n i f y t h a t i n a j u s t q u a r r e l E n g l a n d would s t a n d by h e r f r i e n d s . T h i s h o n o r a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n has been r a i s e d . We cannot r e p u d i a t e i t w i t h o u t e x p o s i n g our good name t o grave c r i t i c i s m . I v e n t u r e t o t h i n k t h a t the c o n t e n t i o n t h a t E n g l a n d cannot i n any c i r c u m s t a n c e s go t o war, i s n o t t r u e , and t h a t any endorsement o f i t would be an a c t o f p o l i t i c a l s u i c i d e . . . . I f e e l c o n f i d e n t t h a t our d u t y and our i n t e r e s t w i l l be seen t o l i e i n s t a n d i n g by F r a n c e i n h e r hour o f need.8 7 I b i d . , p. 201. I b i d . , pp. 228-9. - 57 -S i r A r t h u r N i c o l s o n , t h e B r i t i s h U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , a l s o e x p r e s s e d o p i n i o n s which were more s u s p i c i o u s and a g g r e s s i v e t h a n Edward G r e y ' s , b u t t h e y were n o t q u i t e so o b v i o u s l y a t v a r i a n c e w i t h t h e S e c r e t a r y ' s views as were S i r E y r e Crowe's. On J u l y 27, 1914, f o r i n s t a n c e , he w r o t e : The German a t t i t u d e i s , t o my mind, an u n t e n a b l e one i f Germany r e a l l y , as she so p r o f u s e l y p r o f e s s e s , d e s i r e s p e a c e . She d e c l i n e s t o t a k e o r evades any a c t i o n a t V i e n n a . . . . We a r e w i t n e s s i n g a most c y n i c a l and d e s -p e r a t e measure and Germany s h o u l d , f o r h e r own r e p u t a t i o n , show f a c t s t h a t she i s n o t w i l l i n g t o a s s o c i a t e h e r s e l f w i t h i t o r i n any c a s e w i l l a s s i s t i n m i t i g a t i n g i t s e f f e c t s and l i m i t i t s s c o p e . 9 The n e x t day, commenting on a n o t e t o Grey, he w r o t e : There have c e r t a i n l y been no i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t Germany has e x e r c i s e d any m o d e r a t i n g i n f l u e n c e a t V i e n n a . I t i s g o i n g r a t h e r f a r t o p u t t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y on R u s s i a who has been w i l l i n g t o adopt any and e v e r y c o u r s e l i k e l y t o l e a d t o peace. I suppose Germany wishes R u s s i a t o j o i n w i t h t h e o t h e r Powers i n k e e p i n g t h e r i n g w h i l e A u s t r i a s t r a n g l e s S e r b i a . 1 0 By J u l y 29 S i r A r t h u r was b e g i n n i n g t o doubt s e r i o u s l y t h e e f f i c a c y o f n e g o t i a t i o n t o s o l v e t h e c r i s i s . On t h a t day he w r ote: 9 I b i d . , p. 123. I b i d . , p. 16 4 . - 58 -I am o f t h e o p i n i o n t h a t t h e r e s o u r c e s o f d i p l o m a c y a r e , f o r t h e p r e s e n t , exhausted.11 He f e l t i t n e c e s s a r y , by J u l y 31, t o urge Edward Grey t o o r d e r m o b i l i z a t i o n o f t h e army, a s u g g e s t i o n which Grey, perhaps somewhat r e l u c t a n t l y , a g r e e d t o c o n s i d e r t h e n e x t 12 day. S i r A r t h u r N i c o l s o n a l s o d i s a g r e e d w i t h Grey t h a t B r i t a i n was n o t committed t o e i t h e r one s i d e o r t h e o t h e r i n t h e case o f a European war. V i r g i n i a Cowles w r i t e s : Y e t t h e e n t e n t e was n o t a m i l i t a r y a l l i a n c e , o n l y a l o o s e p a r t n e r s h i p . The danger t h a t i t m i g ht f a l l a p a r t o v e r some d i s a g r e e m e n t haunted S i r A r t h u r N i c o l s o n , t h e Permanent U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e . E v e r s i n c e 1909 he had begged S i r Edward Grey t o p l a c e t h e f a c t s b e f o r e t h e C a b i n e t and t r y t o p e r s u a d e h i s c o l l e a g u e s o f t h e u r g e n t n e c e s s i t y f o r c h a n g i n g th e c h a r a c t e r o f t h e e n t e n t e and u n d e r t a k i n g f i r m m i l i t a r y commitments.13 and: S i r A r t h u r N i c o l s o n , t h e Permanent Under-S e c r e t a r y , d e c l a r e d r e p e a t e d l y - - p e r h a p s d e l i b e r a t e l y t o c o u n t e r a c t Grey's vagueness - - t h a t i f a European war broke o u t B r i t a i n was bound t o range h e r s e l f b e s i d e F r a n c e and Russia.14 B r i t a i n ' s e n t e n t e commitments were, t h e n , e v i d e n t l y a bone o f c o n t e n t i o n between the F o r e i g n O f f i c e and t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r . 1 1 I b i d . , p. 166. 1 2 I b i d . , p. 227. 13 14 Cowles, op. c i t . , p. 297. I b i d . , p. 307, - 59 -Two o t h e r p l a c e s one m i g h t l o o k f o r d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h Grey's p o l i c i e s would be t h e armed f o r c e s and t h e 15 C a b i n e t . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e m i l i t a r y have c o n t r i b u t e d few communications t o t h e B r i t i s h Document c o l l e c t i o n . Those n o t e s which d i d o r i g i n a t e a t m i l i t a r y s o u r c e s a r e i r r e l e v a n t t o t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n . However, one g e t s t h e i m p r e s s i o n from r e a d i n g Winston C h u r c h i l l ' s book The W o r l d C r i s i s t h a t t h e m i l i t a r y worked i n s u b o r d i n a t i o n t o and c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e , and t h a t w h i l e t h e armed f o r c e s were w e l l p r e p a r e d s h o u l d war come, t h e y were n o t eager t o g e t i n v o l v e d . The C a b i n e t , t o o , was c e r t a i n l y n o t d e s i r o u s o f war. W inston C h u r c h i l l w r i t e s : The C a b i n e t was o v e r w h e l m i n g l y p a c i f i c . A t l e a s t t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f i t s members were d e t e r m i n e d n o t t o be drawn i n t o a European q u a r r e l , u n l e s s G r e a t B r i t a i n h e r s e l f was a t t a c k e d , which was n o t l i k e l y . . . . I t was n o t u n t i l Monday, August 3, t h a t the d i r e c t a p p e a l from th e K i n g o f t h e B e l g i a n s f o r F r e n c h and B r i t i s h a i d r a i s e d an i s s u e which u n i t e d t h e overwhelming m a j o r i t y o f M i n i s t e r s and e n a b l e d S i r Edward Grey t o make h i s speech on t h a t a f t e r n o o n i n t h e House o f Commons.16 We must c o n c l u d e , t h e n , from our i n v e s t i g a t i o n a t any r a t e , t h a t t h e r e was some, b u t n o t overwhelming, o p p o s i -t i o n t o Edward G r e y 1 s views c o n c e r n i n g t h e pre-War months "^A l t h o u g h we n o t e h e r e t h a t t h e c a b i n e t members cannot r e a l l y be c o n s i d e r e d b u r e a u c r a t s . " ^ C h u r c h i l l , op. c i t . , p. 211. - 60 -and. B r i t a i n ' s r o l e d u r i n g t h a t t i m e . S i r E y r e Crowe and S i r A r t h u r N i c o l s o n a p p e a r t o have d i s a g r e e d w i t h G r e y . The two c i v i l s e r v a n t s , u n r e s t r a i n e d by P a r l i a m e n t and t h e C a b i n e t , w o u l d have l i k e d B r i t a i n t o t a k e a f i r m e r s t a n d . They c e r t a i n l y showed no h e s i t a n c y a b o u t q u e s t i o n i n g t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r ' s p o l i c i e s . G i v e n t h e i r p o s i t i o n s , t h e i r o p p o s i t i o n was p r o b a b l y q u i t e i m p o r t a n t . T h e r e was n o t much o p p o s i t i o n f r o m o t h e r s o u r c e s , however. The m i l i t a r y a p p e a r s t o have been s a t i s f i e d t o r e m a i n on t h e a l e r t and n o t t a k e any i n i t i a t i v e . The members o f t h e d i p l o m a t i c c o r p s r e s t r i c t e d t h e m s e l v e s t o p r o v i d i n g m a i n l y f a c t u a l i n f o r m a t i o n . I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s and p r e s c r i p t i o n s a p p e a r t o have been k e p t t o a minimum i n o f f i c i a l d i s p a t c h e s . I f any d i p l o m a t s d i d h o l d v i e w s i n o p p o s i t i o n t o t h o s e o f t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r , t h e y do n o t seem t o have a l l o w e d t h e i r p e r s o n a l o p i n i o n s t o i n f l u e n c e g r e a t l y t h e i r o f f i c i a l r e p o r t s . We w o u l d e x p e c t f r o m o u r h y p o t h e s i s t h a t i n Germany, t h e r e w o u l d be l e s s d i s a g r e e m e n t amongst government l e a d e r s , b u r e a u c r a t s , d i p l o m a t s , and m i l i t a r y men t h a n i n E n g l a n d . Such does n o t appear t o have been t h e c a s e , however. I f a n y t h i n g , t h e r e was even more d i s c o r d i n Germany. The c a u t i o u s government b u r e a u c r a t s q u a r r e l l e d w i t h t h e emo-t i o n a l , u n s t a b l e Emperor, and some o f t h e d i p l o m a t s d i s a g r e e d w i t h b o t h t h e b u r e a u c r a t s and W i l l i a m I I . L e t us examine t h e e v i d e n c e upon w h i c h we base t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s . - 61 -To g e t an o v e r v i e w o f t h e v a r i o u s t y p e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n which was b e i n g t r a n s m i t t e d we c a r r i e d o u t a s y s t e m a t i c sample s u r v e y o f t h e German documents. T h i s was c o n d u c t e d i n e x a c t l y t h e same way as t h e s u r v e y c a r r i e d o u t on t h e B r i t i s h m a t e r i a l . The r e s u l t s however, were q u i t e d i f f e r e n t . Of the 63 documents s u r v e y e d , r o u g h l y seven p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l , n i n e were c l e a r l y c o n t r a d i c t o r y o f t h e Emperor's p r e - J u l y 27 p o s i t i o n s . Of t h e s e n i n e , f i v e had d e f i n i t e l y been p a s s e d on t o , i f t h e y were n o t a d d r e s s e d d i r e c t l y t o , t h e Emperor, s i n c e he made m a r g i n a l n o t a t i o n s on them. And o f t h e n i n e , s i x were w r i t t e n b e f o r e t h e Emperor changed h i s p o s i t i o n on J u l y 27. The c o n t r a d i c t o r y messages o r i g i n a t e d a t a v a r i e t y o f s o u r c e s : t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r , t h e S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , and some d i p l o m a t s i n t h e f i e l d . L e t us move now t o a more d e t a i l e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e c o n t e n t o f some o f t h e documents. We f o c u s f i r s t upon t h e Emperor. We have a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t h i s p o s i t i o n d i d f l u c t u a t e somewhat, b u t t h a t i t remained f a i r l y c o n s t a n t up u n t i l J u l y 25. He i n -s i s t e d on Germany's l o y a l t y t o A u s t r i a , he was a g g r e s s i v e towards S e r b i a , he was f e a r f u l and s u s p i c i o u s o f t h e o t h e r G r e a t Powers, and he was h e s i t a n t t o e n t e r i n t o any c o n f e r -ences on the A u s t r o - S e r b i a n a f f a i r . What k i n d o f i n f o r m a t i o n and a d v i c e d i d he r e c e i v e from h i s s u b o r d i n a t e s ? - 62 -The answer seems t o be a g r e a t v a r i e t y of d i f f e r e n t k i n d s of news and c o u n s e l . Most of the diplomats seem t o have submitted t h e i r r e p o r t s i n accordance w i t h what a c t u a l l y was o c c u r r i n g and t h e i r own i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of events r a t h e r than w i t h a view t o c o n f i r m i n g the Emperor's o p i n i o n s . For i n s t a n c e , Count P o u r t a l e s , the German Ambassador a t P e t e r s b u r g , sent some messages which s u b s t a n t i a t e d the Emperor's s u s p i c i o u s view of R u s s i a and some which p o r t r a y e d the Russian M i n i s t e r s and people as q u i t e p a c i f i c and amicable. The very f i r s t document i n the Kautsky c o l l e c t i o n i s a note from P o u r t a l e s on an anti-German e d i t o r i a l which appeared i n a Russian news-paper and which P o u r t a l e s says "emanates from the l o c a l 17 M i n i s t r y of War." He encloses a copy of the e d i t o r i a l . I n a l a t e r communication on J u l y 13, he w r i t e s : But the deep h a t r e d of Austria-Hungary t h a t i s f e l t here [Petersburg] very soon began t o a s s e r t i t s e l f and the i n d i g n a t i o n a t the revenge exer-c i s e d a g a i n s t the Serbs i n the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy superceded w i t h i n a few days a l l ex-p r e s s i o n s of sympathy f o r the aged Emperor Franz Joseph and h i s realm . . . Not o n l y i n the press but among s o c i a l c i r c l e s one met w i t h almost n o t h i n g but u n f r i e n d l y c r i t i c i s m of the murdered Archduke w i t h the suggestion t h a t i n him R u s s i a had l o s t a b i t t e r enemy.18 On J u l y 21 the Count r e p o r t e d a c o n v e r s a t i o n w i t h the Russian F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Sazonoff i n which the m i n i s t e r 17 K.D., op. c i t . , p. 53. 1 8 I b i d , p. 116. - 63 -i n d i c a t e d t h a t he d i d n o t t h i n k S e r b i a s h o u l d be h e a v i l y r e p r i m a n d e d , t h a t t h e S e r b i a n government was b e h a v i n g q u i t e p r o p e r l y , and t h a t R u s s i a w o u l d n o t a l l o w A u s t r i a t o make s e v e r e demands on S e r b i a . T h i s r e p o r t e v i d e n t l y a r o u s e d t h e K a i s e r ' s a n g e r t o w a r d s R u s s i a and he f l a r e d up w i t h s u c h comments as "Damnation!" and " . . . R u s s i a . . . t h e 19 p e r p e t r a t o r and a d v o c a t e o f r e g i c i d e ! ! ! " I n a message a d d r e s s e d t o t h e C h a n c e l l o r and s u b m i t t e d t o t h e Emperor on J u l y 26 P o u r t a l e s r e p o r t s t h a t t h e R u s s i a n F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r "broke i n t o t h e most unmeasured a c c u s a t i o n s and i n s i n u a t i o n s a g a i n s t t h e A u s t r o - H u n g a r i a n Government." S a z o n o f f a p p a r -e n t l y d e c l a r e d h i s b e l i e f t h a t A u s t r i a meant t o " d e v o u r " S e r b i a and t h a t " i n t h a t e v e n t . . . R u s s i a w i l l go t o war 20 w i t h A u s t r i a . " N o t a l l o f P o u r t a l e s messages w h i c h r e a c h e d t h e K a i s e r p o r t r a y e d t h e R u s s i a n s as d a ngerous e n e m i e s , however. I n t h a t same c o m m u n i c a t i o n o f J u l y 26, f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e Ambassador w r i t e s : My g e n e r a l i m p r e s s i o n i s t h a t i n s p i t e o f t h e v e r y much e x c i t e d mood i n w h i c h Mr. S a z o n o f f f i n d s h i m s e l f , he w i s h e s t o t e m p o r i z e above a l l t h i n g s . . .21 A n o t e o f J u l y 24 c o n t r a d i c t e d t h e Emperor's f e a r o f a s t r o n g F r e n c h - R u s s i a n a l l i a n c e a g a i n s t Germany. 1 9 I b i d . , p. 1 6 1 . 2 0 I b i d . , p. 214. 21* L o c . c i t . - 64 -A p a r t f r o m t h e s e p u r e l y f o r m a l t e s t i m o n i a l s o f h o n o r , i t c a n n o t be s a i d t h a t t h e r e c e p -t i o n a c c o r d e d t o t h e F r e n c h g u e s t h e r e was a p a r t i c u l a r l y warm one. Whoever r e a d s n o t h i n g b u t t h e n a t i o n a l i s t i c l o c a l p a p e r s and e x t r a -v a g a n t r e p o r t s o f t h e c e l e b r a t i o n by t h e v e r y numerous F r e n c h j o u r n a l i s t s . . . w i l l g a i n q u i t e a m i s t a k e n i m p r e s s i o n o f t h e s p i r i t t h a t r e i g n e d h e r e d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d o f t h e P r e s i d e n t i a l v i s i t . E v e r y i m p a r t i a l o b s e r v e r w o u l d have t o t e s t i f y t o t h e s t r i k i n g i n d i f f e r e n c e e x h i b i t e d by t h e g r e a t mass o f t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c t o w a r d t h e v i s i t . 2 2 On J u l y 27 he r e p o r t e d a q u i e t , p a c i f i c mood p r e v a i l i n g i n P e t e r s b u r g . He w r o t e : The d e c l a r a t i o n t h a t A u s t r i a h a d no i n t e n t i o n o f m a k i n g any t e r r i t o r i a l a c q u i s i t i o n s , and o u r e n e r g e t i c r e f u t a t i o n o f t h e i n s i n u a t i o n t h a t we had p r o d d e d A u s t r i a on w i t h t h e i d e a o f f o m e n t i n g a c o n f l i c t , has p l a i n l y had a q u i e t i n g e f f e c t h e r e . . . Mr. S a z o n o f f i s now e v i d e n t l y s t r i v i n g t o f i n d a way o u t . . . . I n g e n e r a l , t h e r e i s l i t t l e war e n t h u s i a s m t o be r e m a r k e d h e r e . . .23 Ther e have been some s u g g e s t i o n s t h a t P o u r t a l e s ' r e p o r t s were n o t a c c u r a t e . F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e R u s s i a n s had been making m i l i t a r y p r e p a r a t i o n s s i n c e J u l y 25 and y e t he r e p o r t s a p e a c e f u l mood p r e v a i l i n g t h e r e i n t h e n o t e q u o t e d j u s t above. I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o s a y f o r c e r t a i n , t h o u g h , w h e t h e r o r n o t he was p u r p o s e l y d i s t o r t i n g h i s messages t o p l e a s e t h e Emperor. Most o f t h e o t h e r German d i p l o m a t s r e p o r t e d e v e n t s w i t h no a p p a r e n t d e s i r e t o p l a c a t e o r s t i m u l a t e t h e Emperor. 22 I b i d . , p. 211. 2 3 I b i d . , p. 301. - 65 -I t i s n o t a b l e , though, t h a t w h i l e t h e B r i t i s h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s seem t o have o f f e r e d l i t t l e i n t h e way o f p e r s o n a l a d v i c e , t h e i r German e q u i v a l e n t s e x p r e s s e d t h e i r own o p i n i o n s , b o t h t o t h e i r own government and t o t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f o t h e r governments, more f r e q u e n t l y . F o r i n s t a n c e , on June 30 H e i n r i c h von T s c h i r s c h k y , t h e German Ambassador a t V i e n n a , wrote a n o t e t o t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r t h a t was p a s s e d on t o t h e Emperor. A t one p o i n t he s a y s : I t a k e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y o f e v e r y such o c c a s i o n t o a d v i s e q u i e t l y b u t v e r y i m p r e s s i v e l y and s e r i o u s l y a g a i n s t t o o h a s t y s t e p s [with r e g a r d t o t h e S e r b s ] . 2 4 The Ambassador's i n i t i a t i v e e l i c i t e d an a c i d r e s p o n s e from t h e Emperor. Who a u t h o r i z e d him t o a c t t h a t way? T h a t i s v e r y s t u p i d ! 2 5 On J u l y 4 von T s c h i r s c h k y o f f e r e d some a d v i c e t o h i s own government. In my humble o p i n i o n our p r e s s s h o u l d r e s t r a i n i t s e l f as much as p o s s i b l e , and a v o i d g i v i n g o f f e n c e h e r e a t t h e p r e s e n t moment by u n s o l i -c i t e d a d v i c e . 2 6 Some o f the o t h e r d i p l o m a t s , n o t a b l y P o u r t a l e s and Schoen i n P a r i s , had a tendency a t t i m e s t o i n t r o d u c e t h e i r L o c . c i t . 24 I b i d . , p. 61, 26 I b i d . , p . 78 - 66 -own p e r s o n a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s i n t o r e p o r t s . But the most obvious example of a German r e p r e s e n t a t i v e who c o l o u r e d h i s communication w i t h h i s own o p i n i o n s was the Ambassador t o London, P r i n c e Lichnowsky. P r i n c e Lichnowsky was a noted B r i t i s h sympathizer and he submitted many messages which c o n t r a d i c t e d the Emperor's views about B r i t a i n . There i s some doubt, however, whether many of these messages ever reached the Emperor. Of the t o t a l of seventy-two documents sent by Lichnowsky t o the F o r e i g n O f f i c e o r the I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r , o n l y e i g h t are commented on by the Emperor. We can not know, of course, whether or not the Emperor read o n l y those e i g h t he commented on or whether he read many more, p r e f e r r i n g not t o comment. There i s some evidence t o suggest t h a t Jagow and Bethmann-Hollweg might have d e l i b e r a t e l y kept some of Lichnowsky's telegrams from the Emperor. One of the Ambassador's messages p o i n t s out s t r o n g l y t h a t the S e r b i a n r e p l y t o the A u s t r i a n ultimatum was l i k e l y due t o Russian i n f l u e n c e , t h a t B r i t a i n was becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p a t i e n t , and t h a t the "key t o 27 the s i t u a t i o n c o u l d be found i n B e r l i n . " Concerning t h i s communication Jagow had asked i n a note d i r e c t e d t o the C h a n c e l l o r : " S h a l l t h i s telegram be submitted to His Majesty? 2 8 I t ought h a r d l y t o be kept from His Majesty?" The telegram I b i d . , p. 244. See note 3 i n I b i d . , p. 264. - 67 -was e v e n t u a l l y s e n t t o t h e Emperor, b u t one i s l e f t w o ndering whether o r n o t o t h e r messages came under such c o n s i d e r a t i o n and were k e p t from him. On a n o t h e r o c c a s i o n t h e C h a n c e l l o r s u b m i t t e d a t e l e -gram from London t o W i l l i a m I I which s t a t e d b o l d l y t h a t "the o n l y p o s s i b i l i t y o f a v o i d i n g a g e n e r a l war l a y ' i n t h e a c c e p t a n c e o f S i r Edward Grey's p r o p o s a l t o h o l d a c o n f e r e n c e a q u a t r e h e r e ; and t h e l o c a l i s a t i o n o f t h e c o n f l i c t so hoped f o r i n B e r l i n was w h o l l y i m p o s s i b l e and must be dropped from 29 t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s o f p r a c t i c a l p o l i t i c s ' . " B u t b e f o r e he gave t h i s message t o t h e Emperor, t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r d e l e t e d t h e f i n a l s e n t e n c e which r e a d : I would l i k e t o o f f e r an u r g e n t w a r n i n g a g a i n s t b e l i e v i n g any f u r t h e r i n t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f l o c a l i z a t i o n , and t o e x p r e s s th e humble w i s h t h a t our p o l i c y be g u i d e d s o l e l y and a l o n e by t h e need o f s p a r i n g t h e German n a t i o n a s t r u g g l e which i t has n o t h i n g t o g a i n from and e v e r y t h i n g t o l o s e . 3 0 T h i s was h a r d l y a p a t r i o t i c s t a t e m e n t and would have seemed u n u s u a l t o say the l e a s t t o t h e Emperor. In a d d i t i o n , V i r g i n i a Cowles p o i n t s o u t t h a t i t " d i d n o t q u i t e square w i t h 31 Bethmann's r o s y o p timism." A f t e r showing i t t o t h e Emperor the C h a n c e l l o r a n n o t a t e d th e document: "Submitted t o 29 Cowles, op. c i t . , p. 325. 30,. . ^  31 T L o c . c i t . Loc. c i t . - 68 -His Majesty. His Majesty disapproved of Lichnowsky's p o i n t 32 of view." There i s some evidence,, then, t h a t the bu r e a u c r a t s i n the F o r e i g n O f f i c e and the I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r were h e s i -t a n t a t times t o submit t o the Emperor messages which con-t r a d i c t e d h i s expressed wishes and a t t i t u d e s . The support f o r t h i s s u p p o s i t i o n i s r a t h e r tenuous, however. The two examples o f the p o s s i b l e w i t h h o l d i n g o f i n f o r m a t i o n which we have mentioned above were the o n l y ones which we were ab l e t o f i n d . What we do know i s t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n and a d v i c e which d i d not conform t o the Emperor *s ideas was bei n g w r i t t e n down and submitted t o the B e r l i n a u t h o r i t i e s , and i n many cases was r e a c h i n g the Emperor. The diplomats abroad were not the o n l y ones who dared t o d i s a g r e e w i t h the Emperor. We have a l r e a d y noted t h a t the I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r ' s p o s i t i o n was somewhat d i f f e r e n t from t h a t of h i s s o v e r e i g n . There were occasi o n s when an open breach o c c u r r e d between these two men. The p r i n c i p a l c o n f r o n t a t i o n o c c u r r e d over a very p a r t i c u l a r i s s u e a r i s i n g out of t h e i r d i f f e r i n g p o i n t s of view. The i s s u e was the r e t u r n of the German f l e e t t o i t s base a t K i e l . Bethmann-Hollweg, w i t h h i s more c a u t i o u s , p a c i f i s t i c o u t l o o k , d i d not want t o arouse the i r e and s u s p i c i o n of the B r i t i s h , French Loc. c i t . - 69 -o r R u s s i a n s . He was t r y i n g t o k e e p t h e s i t u a t i o n c a l m and t h e A u s t r o - S e r b i a n c o n f l i c t l o c a l i z e d . On J u l y 25, i n d i r e c t c o n f l i c t w i t h what he knew were t h e Emperor's w i s h e s he w r o t e t o W i l l i a m I I : . . .1 v e n t u r e most humbly t o s u g g e s t t o Y o u r M a j e s t y t o o r d e r t h e H i g h Seas F l e e t t o r e m a i n i n Norway f o r t h e p r e s e n t . . . 3 ^ E a c h o f t h e s e t e l e g r a m s g r e a t l y a n g e r e d t h e Emperor as can be s e e n i n h i s n o t a t i o n s . He was s u s p i c i o u s o f t h e B r i t i s h and t h e R u s s i a n s and a f r a i d t h a t t h e y m i g h t l a u n c h some k i n d o f an a t t a c k a g a i n s t Germany. T h e r e f o r e , he was d e t e r m i n e d t o g a t h e r h i s f l e e t t o g e t h e r i n c a s e war b r o k e o u t . On t h e b o t t o m o f Bethmann-Hollweg's J u l y 26 n o t e he w r i t e s : I n a l a t e r t e l e g r a m he c l a r i f i e d t h e r e a s o n s f o r h i s o r d e r s . I n o r d e r t o a v o i d t h e d a n g e r t h a t my F l e e t m i g h t be s u r p r i s e d by war w h i l e w i d e l y s c a t t e r e d i n N o r w e g i a n h a r b o u r s and f a r f r o m i t s b a s e , I gave o r d e r s y e s t e r d a y noon, a f t e r l e a r n i n g f r o m t e l e g r a m 127 t h a t t h e S e r b i a n I v e n t u r e most humbly t o a d v i s e t h a t Y o u r M a j e s t y o r d e r no p r e m a t u r e r e t u r n o f t h e F l e e t . 3 3 A g a i n on J u l y 26 he w r o t e : My F l e e t has o r d e r s t o s a i l f o r K i e l , and t o K i e l i t i s g o i n g t o s a i l ! 3 ^ 33 K.D op. c i t . , p. 202. 34 I b i d . , p. 223. 35 L o c . c i t . - 70 -m o b i l i z a t i o n was a l r e a d y i n f u l l swing, t h a t t h e F l e e t , a f t e r c o m p l e t i n g t h e n e c e s s a r y c o a l i n g , s h o u l d c o n c e n t r a t e and b e g i n t h e j o u r n e y home.36 Disagreements d i d n o t o n l y o c c u r between t h e Emperor and h i s M i n i s t e r s . There was some d i s c o r d between Lichnowsky i n London and Bethmann-Hollweg and Jagow i n B e r l i n . We r e c a l l t h a t t h e C h a n c e l l o r and t h e S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s h e l d s i m i l a r v i e w s , n o t o v e r l y s u s p i c i o u s and a g g r e s s i v e l i k e t h e Emperor, and y e t n o t o v e r l y e n t h u s i -a s t i c towards t h e T r i p l e E n t e n t e e i t h e r . They were c o n c e r n e d w i t h l o c a l i z a t i o n o f t h e A u s t r o - S e r b i a n c o n f l i c t , w i t h t a c t i c s , and w i t h a p p e a r a n c e s . Y e t Lichnowsky's p r o - B r i t i s h views were t o o much even f o r them a t t i m e s . F o r example, on J u l y 16 P r i n c e Lichnowsky s e n t a t e l e g r a m t o t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r (which was n o t commented on by the Emperor, by t h e way) which c o n t a i n e d such e x p r e s s i o n s as: I t i s well-known t h a t t h e l e a d i n g m i l i t a r y a u t h o r i t i e s i n A u s t r i a have been u r g i n g f o r a l o n g time t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f t h e p r e s t i g e o f t h e Monarchy by means o f a war. The m i l i t a r y c o r r e c t i o n o f S e r b i a would t h e r e -f o r n e v e r p o s s e s s t h e purpose o r have t h e r e s u l t s o f a s a t i s f a c t o r y s o l u t i o n o f t h e e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u l t s o u t h e r n - S l a v problem. . . The q u e s t i o n t h a t t r o u b l e s me i s whether i t a d v i s a b l e f o r us t o s u p p o r t our a l l y i n a p o l i c y o r , i n o t h e r words, t o s t a n d as I b i d . , p. 227. - 71 -g u a r a n t o r s o f a p o l i c y which I r e g a r d as mere a d v e n t u r e , inasmuch as i t w i l l l e a d n e i t h e r t o a r a d i c a l s o l u t i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m n o r t o t h e a n n i h i l a t i o n o f t h e G r e a t e r - S e r b i a movement.37 Here was a member o f t h e German c i v i l s e r v i c e s e v e r e l y q u e s t i o n i n g h i s government's p o l i c i e s on t h e A u s t r i a n a l l i -ance and t h e c o u r s e t h a t s h o u l d be f o l l o w e d towards S e r b i a . Such an i n d i s c r e t i o n was worthy o f a r e p r i m a n d and Lichnowsky r e c e i v e d one from Jagow. The F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r s e n t o f f a s t r o n g l y - w o r d e d s t a t e m e n t o f t h e German p o s i t i o n t o L ichnowsky and ended i t w i t h : I f t h e s e arguments i n f a v o r o f our p o l i c y a r e , p e r h a p s , n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o c o n v i n c e you, I know, n e v e r t h e l e s s , t h a t you w i l l s t a n d b e h i n d them.3 8 Lichnowsky was n o t , however, t o be e a s i l y s t i f l e d . He wrote back on J u l y 23: Many thanks f o r y o u r l e t t e r o f t h e e i g h t e e n t h , w h i c h , however, was u n f o r t u n a t e l y n o t a b l e t o c o n v i n c e me c o m p l e t e l y . 3 9 Throughout t h e book the Ambassador i n London c o n t i n u e s t o p r e s e n t h i s own p r o - B r i t i s h v e r s i o n o f e v e n t s i n s p i t e o f the r emonstrances o f h i s s u p e r i o r s . There a r e v e r y few e n t r i e s i n t h e Kautsky document c o l l e c t i o n from c i v i l s e r v i c e o r m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l . 3 7 I b i d . , p. 124. 3 9 I b i d . , p. 188. I b i d . , p. 132. - 72 -Zimmermann, t h e German U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s does c o n t r i b u t e a few c o m m u n i c a t i o n s b u t t h e y a r e m a i n l y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d i n s t r u c t i o n s . The o n l y t i m e we g e t a h i n t o f h i s p o l i c y p r e f e r e n c e s i s i n a n o t e t o t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r on June 27. I n i t he seems t o be e x p r e s s i n g a p o s i t i o n more o r l e s s s i m i l a r t o t h e Emperor's and more r a d i c a l t h a n t h a t o f Bethmann-Hollweg. He w r o t e : I n t h i s c o n f e r e n c e , as was t o be e x p e c t e d , L i c h n o w s k y was once a g a i n p u t c o m p l e t e l y i n t o s w a d d l i n g c l o t h e s by G r e y , and a l l o w e d h i s c o n v i c t i o n t h a t he was d e a l i n g w i t h an h o n o r -a b l e and t r u t h - l o v i n g s t a t e s m a n t o be s t r e n g -t h e n e d anew. T h e r e i s n o t h i n g l e f t t o do b u t t o g i v e L i c h n o w s k y some n a t u r a l l y v e r y c a u t i o u s h i n t s c o n c e r n i n g t h e s e c r e t b u t a b s o l u t e l y r e -l i a b l e r e p o r t s we a r e g e t t i n g f r o m P e t e r s b u r g , w h i c h p e r m i t no d o u b t a t a l l t o a r i s e as t o t h e e x i s t e n c e o f permanent p o l i t i c a l and m i l i t a r y agreements between E n g l a n d and F r a n c e o r c o n c e r n i n g t h e i n i t i a t i o n a l r e a d y i n p r o g r e s s o f t r a n s a c t i o n s between E n g l a n d and R u s s i a d i r -e c t e d t o w a r d s i m i l a r r e s u l t s . 4 0 A l t h o u g h we c a n n o t be s u r e , we m i g h t i n f e r f r o m t h i s s t a t e -ment t h a t some d i s a g r e e m e n t e x i s t e d between t h e C h a n c e l l o r and t h e U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y . The m i l i t a r y , t o o , a p p e a r s t o have been a l i g n e d w i t h t h e Emperor, much t o Bethmann-Hollweg's c o n c e r n . On June 16 he w r o t e : S i n c e H i s M a j e s t y t h e Emperor, as I may remark q u i t e c o n f i d e n t i a l l y , has a l r e a d y i d e n t i f i e d h i m s e l f w i t h t h i s t e n d e n c y o f t h o u g h t [ t h e I b i d . , p . 59 . - 73 -n e c e s s i t y f o r i n c r e a s e d armaments] I l o o k f o r w a r d a n x i o u s l y t o t h e o u t b r e a k o f a new armament f e v e r i n Germany d u r i n g t h e summer and f a l l . 4 1 E.T.S. D u g d a l e , w r i t i n g an e d i t o r i a l i n t r o d u c t i o n t o some o f t h e documents i n h i s c o l l e c t i o n , c o n t e n d s t h a t t h e Emperor and t h e m i l i t a r y were a g r e e d on p o l i c y m a t t e r s and were w o r k i n g a t c r o s s - p u r p o s e s t o t h e C h a n c e l l o r and t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e . He w r i t e s : . . . t h e C h a n c e l l o r and t h e c i v i l i a n e l e m e n t s i n t h e German Government were t r y i n g t h e i r b e s t t o keep on good t e r m s w i t h t h e E n t e n t e Powers. The d e c i s i o n , however, was n o t i n t h e i r h a n d s . The Emperor gave h i s c o n f i d e n c e e x c l u s i v e l y t o t h e C h i e f s o f t h e War O f f i c e and A d m i r a l t y , M o l t k e and T i r p i t z , and k e p t t h e C h a n c e l l o r ^ i n t h e d a r k as t o t h e aims o f German p o l i c y . W h i l e t h i s a c c o u n t may be o v e r s t a t e d , i t does i n d i c a t e a n o t h e r s o u r c e o f d i s s e n s i o n w i t h i n t h e German government. I n a n o t e t o t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r on J u l y 29, t h e Grand G e n e r a l S t a f f gave t h e i r v e r s i o n o f t h e p o l i t i c a l 43 s i t u a t i o n . I t was c l e a r l y a t v a r i a n c e w i t h t h e C h a n c e l l o r ' s own v i e w s . They e x p r e s s e d e x t r e m e l y h a r s h c r i t i c i s m o f S e r b i a and R u s s i a , r e f e r r i n g t o them as p a r t n e r s i n c r i m e . A u s t r i a on t h e o t h e r hand i s p o r t r a y e d as t h e a g g r i e v e d I b i d . , p. 55 . 42 E.T.S. D u g d a l e , German D i p l o m a t i c Documents: 1871-1914, London, Methuen and Company, 1931, v o l . I V , p.352. 4 3K.D., op. c i t . , pp. 306-308. - 74 -p a r t y , r i g h t l y s e e k i n g a j u s t r e v e n ge. A l l t h e blame f o r e s c a l a t i o n o f t h e c o n f l i c t i s p l a c e d upon R u s s i a , which i s d e s c r i b e d as "moving hand i n hand" w i t h F r a n c e i n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r a European war. The m i l i t a r y men u r g e d q u i c k m o b i l i z a t i o n o f t h e German f o r c e s . W h i l e t h e C h a n c e l l o r f e l t i t would be w i s e t a c t i c a l l y and f o r appearance's sake t o l a y t h e blame on R u s s i a , he n e v e r s h a r e d t h e e n t h u s i a s m f o r A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y ' s revenge n o r t h e s u s p i c i o n and f e a r o f R u s s i a and F r a n c e t h a t was e x p r e s s e d i n t h e m i l i t a r y r e p o r t . The r e p o r t c o n t a i n e d o p i n i o n s w h i c h were more l i k e t h o s e e x p r e s s e d by t h e Emperor. There was l i t t l e u n i t y o f a t t i t u d e o r p o i n t o f view amongst German government p e r s o n n e l j u s t p r e c e e d i n g t h e War, t h e n . The Emperor and t h e m i l i t a r y appear t o have h e l d h o s t i l e , a g g r e s s i v e o p i n i o n s . The C h a n c e l l o r and t h e S e c r e -t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s were much more c a u t i o u s and p a c i f i c . And y e t communications c o n t a i n i n g a l l shades o f o p i n i o n appear t o have f l o w e d q u i t e f r e e l y t o t h e Emperor, the C h a n c e l l o r , and t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e s t a f f . Most d i p l o -mats s u b m i t t e d r e l a t i v e l y r o u t i n e r e p o r t s and y e t t h e r e i s no e v i d e n c e t o s u g g e s t t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t r a d i c t i n g t h e government p o s i t i o n o r the Emperor's p o i n t o f view was c o n s c i o u s l y s u p p r e s s e d by Germany's f o r e i g n r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I f a n y t h i n g , they appear t o have s u b m i t t e d p e r s o n a l i n t e r p r e -t a t i o n s and t h e i r own i d e a s , whether they were d i s s i d e n t o r n o t , more o f t e n than t h e i r B r i t i s h c o u n t e r p a r t s . P r i n c e - 75 -Lichnowsky r e p r e s e n t e d t h e extreme h e r e , o f c o u r s e . H i s i d e a s were so d i f f e r e n t from t h e g e n e r a l f l o w o f f e e l i n g s i n Germany t h a t h i s r e p o r t s a r o u s e d t h e i r e o f b o t h t h e Emperor and t h e F o r e i g n O f f i c e . T h ere was open d i s a g r e e m e n t , t o o , amongst t h e d o m e s t i c government o f f i c i a l s . The I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r i n j e c t e d h i s more c a u t i o u s p e r s o n a l views i n t o h i s remarks a d d r e s s e d t o t h e Emperor. A t one p o i n t t h e p a i r even had d i r e c t c o n f r o n -t a t i o n o v e r t h e r e t u r n o f t h e German f l e e t . The m i l i t a r y seem t o have s i d e d w i t h t h e Emperor and made t h e i r p o s i t i o n c l e a r t o t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r . The U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s a l s o appears t o have h e l d more r a d i c a l o p i n i o n s and on a t l e a s t one o c c a s i o n he e x p r e s s e d them t o Bethmann-Hollweg. We found some f l i m s y s u p p o r t f o r t h e s u p p o s i t i o n t h a t c e r t a i n d i s a g r e e a b l e messages were k e p t from t h e Emperor. However, t h e d o c u m e n t a t i o n h e r e i s v e r y u n s a t i s f a c t o r y i n d e e d , and no c o n c l u s i v e i n f e r e n c e s can be drawn from i t . F a c e d w i t h t h e e v i d e n c e as summarized above we can o n l y c o n c l u d e t h a t our h y p o t h e s i s has come t h r o u g h the b a t t l e o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n s e v e r e l y b a t t e r e d and s c a r r e d , i f n o t d e f e a t e d . CHAPTER 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS We opened t h i s p a p e r w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e Rosenau p r e - t h e o r y and v a r i o u s o t h e r i d e a s a b o u t open and c l o s e d p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m s . Now we must summarize and e x p l a i n what we have l e a r n e d i n t h i s s m a l l e m p i r i c a l i n q u i r y and t r y t o i n d i c a t e t h e l i n k a g e s between t h e f a c t s we have d i s c o v e r e d and t h e t h e o r y w i t h w h i c h we began. F i r s t , t h e summary. D u r i n g t h e month and a h a l f j u s t p r e c e e d i n g t h e o u t -b r e a k o f t h e F i r s t W o r l d War, one government p o l i t i c i a n , Edward G r e y , a p p e a r s t o have d o m i n a t e d B r i t i s h p o l i c y f o r -m a t i o n w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e E u r o p e a n s i t u a t i o n . U n t i l t h e s e n d i n g o f t h e A u s t r i a n u l t i m a t u m on J u l y 24, t h e r e s t o f t h e government was more c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e s i t u a t i o n i n I r e l a n d t h a n w i t h t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a E u r o p e a n war. The p o l i c i e s a d v o c a t e d by G r e y were e s s e n t i a l l y p o s i t i v e and p a c i f i c . He c o n t i n u e d f r o m t h e f i r s t h i n t o f c r i s i s u n t i l t h e l a s t moment t o s e a r c h f o r a p e a c e f u l s o l u t i o n t o t h e A u s t r o - S e r b i a n p r o b l e m . He e m p h a s i z e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f m e d i a t i o n and n e g o t i a t i o n . He r e p e a t e d l y s t a t e d t h a t B r i t a i n was n o t bound t o e i t h e r s i d e . He was r e l u c t a n t t o make any o v e r t p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r war u n t i l t h e c o n f l i c t seemed a l m o s t s u r e t o o c c u r . - 77 -In Germany we d i s c o v e r e d t h r e e l e a d e r s , o r perhaps i t would be s i m p l e r t o speak o f two known l e a d e r s h i p p o s i t i o n s , one a d v o c a t e d by t h e Emperor and t h e o t h e r by t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r and the F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r . W i l l i a m I I was q u i t e m i l i t a n t . He e x p r e s s e d g r e a t s u s p i c i o n o f t h e T r i p l e E n t e n t e powers, and he was v e r y a g g r e s s i v e towards S e r b i a . He a s s u r e d A u s t r i a - H u n g a r y o f Germany's l o y a l t y r i g h t from t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e A u s t r o - S e r b i a n a f f a i r . He was v e r y h e s i t a n t about e n t e r i n g i n t o any n e g o t i a t i o n s aimed a t s o f t e n i n g t h e blow t h a t A u s t r i a meant t o d e a l S e r b i a . These were h i s views up u n t i l t h e S e r b i a n r e p l y , when, p e r c e i v i n g t h a t f u r t h e r m i l i -t a n c y was l i k e l y t o p r o v o k e an a l l - E u r o p e war, he became much more p a c i f i c . H i s p a c i f i s m d i d n o t l a s t l o n g , however, and he soon r e t u r n e d t o h i s former p o s i t i o n s . The I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r and t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r were more c o n s e r v a t i v e t han th e Emperor. They wanted t o see S e r b i a p u n i s h e d b u t t h e y a l s o wanted t o make s u r e t h a t t h e c o n f l i c t remained l o c a l i z e d . T h e r e f o r e t h e y were more w i l l i n g t o c o n f e r w i t h t h e o t h e r G r e a t Powers about the s i t u a t i o n . W h i l e t h e y were a n x i o u s about t h e r o l e s B r i t a i n , R u s s i a , and F r a n c e would p l a y , they d i d n o t p r o j e c t the d e f e n s i v e a g g r e s s i v e n e s s o f the Emperor. T a c t i c s and appearances were o f g r e a t impor-t a n c e t o them. Sh o u l d war break out t h e y were d e t e r m i n e d t h a t t h e blame s h o u l d n o t f a l l on Germany. - 7 8 -From o u r h y p o t h e s i s i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t we e x p e c t e d t h e r e w o u l d be more d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h S i r Edward G r e y ' s p o s i t i o n t h a n t h e r e w o u l d be w i t h t h e Emperor's v i e w s o r t h o s e o f Bethmann-Hollweg. Such was n o t t h e c a s e , however. N o t o n l y d i d German d i p l o m a t s and b u r e a u c r a t s seem t o o f f e r p e r s o n a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s and o p i n i o n s more f r e q u e n t l y t h a n t h e i r B r i t i s h e q u i v a l e n t s , b u t t h e r e were s e v e r a l i n s t a n c e s where s u b o r d i n a t e s c l e a r l y e x p r e s s e d d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h t h e i r s u p e r i o r s . The v e r y f a c t , as we have j u s t m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , t h a t t h e t o p r a n k i n g government m i n i s t e r s h e l d g e n e r a l p o l i c y p o s i t i o n s d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e i r Emperor i s t h e most o b v i o u s i n d i c a t i o n o f c o n t r o v e r s y w i t h i n t h e German r e g i m e . We f o u n d t h a t t h e C h a n c e l l o r e x p r e s s e d d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h some o f t h e Emperor's p l a n s , and t h a t d i p l o m a t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y L i c h n o w s k y i n London, e x p r e s s e d d i s s i d e n t o p i n i o n s t o t h e Emperor and t h e C h a n c e l l o r . W h i l e t h e r e was some d i s c o r d between t h e B r i t i s h b u r e a u c r a t s and S i r Grey i t was c e r t a i n l y no g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t w h i c h o c c u r r e d i n Germany. T h e r e f o r e , o u r h y p o t h e s i s was n o t s u p p o r t e d i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r c a s e . We m i g h t now t r y and s p e c u l a t e a b o u t some o f t h e r e a s o n s why t h e h y p o t h e s i s was n o t s u p p o r t e d . I n C h a p t e r 2 we m e n t i o n e d t h e p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e c a s e s t u d y . A h y p o t h e s i s c a n n o t s t a n d o r f a l l on t h e b a s i s o f e v i d e n c e g a t h e r e d a b o u t o n l y one c a s e , u n l e s s t h a t h y p o t h e s i s r e f e r s o n l y t o t h a t p a r t i c u l a r c a s e . S i n c e o u r h y p o t h e s i s r e f e r r e d - 79 -t o phenomena w h i c h we w o u l d e x p e c t t o f i n d common i n most open and c l o s e d p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m s , we c a n n o t draw t h e o b v i o u s c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e p r o p o s i t i o n i s i n c o r r e c t . I t was o n l y shown t o be i n c o r r e c t i n t h e c a s e o f B r i t a i n as compared w i t h Germany d u r i n g t h e month and a h a l f b e f o r e t h e F i r s t W o r l d War. T h e r e f o r e we must examine o u r c h o s e n c a s e t o see i f t h e r e m i g h t be any s p e c i a l r e a s o n s why t h e h y p o t h e s i s w o u l d n o t be s u p p o r t e d . We had some d i f f i c u l t y c l a s s i f y i n g Germany as a c l o s e d s y s t e m . I t was c e r t a i n l y n o t a t o t a l i t a r i a n s y s t e m , and y e t i t was n o t what we w o u l d n o r m a l l y t h i n k o f as an open o r " d e m o c r a t i c " n a t i o n . The a u t h o r i t i e s a t t h e t o p d i d n o t r e a l l y d o m i n a t e t h e r e s t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n , t h e y s i m p l y i g n o r e d them. The p e o p l e c r i t i c i z e d t h e government b u t t h e y d i d n o t , c o n s t i t u t i o n a l l y o r f a c t u a l l y , c o n t r o l i t . P e r h a p s Germany i n 1914 m i g h t be b e t t e r c l a s s i f i e d as a t r a n s i t i o n a l p o l i t y . I n c o m p a r i s o n t o B r i t a i n , Germany had had a r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t h i s t o r y as a u n i t e d n a t i o n . I t had n o t y e t emerged f r o m t h e m o n a r c h i a l s y s t e m , a l t h o u g h t h e b e g i n n i n g s o f d e m o c r a t i c r u l e were e v i d e n t . B r i t a i n , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , had p o s s e s s e d t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s o f d e m o c r a t i c r u l e , i f n o t t h e p r a c t i c e o f democracy i n terms o f u n i v e r -s a l i t y o f s u f f r a g e and e q u a l i t y o f a c c e s s , f o r a l o n g t i m e . I n o t h e r w o r d s , w h i l e B r i t a i n was an e s t a b l i s h e d democracy, Germany was an imminent democracy. The s i g n s were t h e r e . - 80 -The German R e i c h s t a g was j u s t b e g i n n i n g t o f r e e i t s e l f o f t h e bonds o f a c o n s e r v a t i v e , pro-government m a j o r i t y b e f o r e t h e War. I t seems l i k e l y t h a t i f t h e War had n o t i n t e r v e n e d , t h e R e i c h s t a g would have grown even more p o w e r f u l and perhaps would have f o r c e d a change i n t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n . I f we a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s t h a t Germany was more o f a t r a n s i t i o n a l p o l i t y t h a n a c l o s e d p o l i t y t h e d i s c r e p a n c y be-tween o u r e x p e c t a t i o n s and o u r r e s u l t s c o u l d be p a r t i a l l y e x p l a i n e d . I n a s o c i e t y f a c e d w i t h impending change, where the p o w e r f u l no l o n g e r a s s e r t t h e m s e l v e s i n a r u t h l e s s and a r b i t r a r y f a s h i o n , where th e masses no l o n g e r f e a r t o c r i t i -c i z e and p u b l i c l y a t t a c k t h e p o w e r f u l , where r o l e s a r e u n c e r t a i n , and where a c e r t a i n amount o f c o n f u s i o n i s e v i d e n t , i t would seem l i k e l y ( i n t h e o r y a t l e a s t ) t h a t d i f f e r i n g o p i n i o n s would come t o the f o r e , perhaps even more l i k e l y t h a n i s a w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d open system where communication c h a n n e l s and p o s i t i o n s a r e r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e . Such c o n f u s i o n as we mention was c e r t a i n l y e v i d e n t i n Germany. F o r i n s t a n c e , i t seems t h a t t h e r e were a t l e a s t t h r e e d i f f e r e n t men, the Emperor, t h e I m p e r i a l C h a n c e l l o r , and t h e S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e f o r F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , i n charge o f Germany's i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l b u s i n e s s , whereas i n B r i t a i n t h e F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r was c l e a r l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r h i s f i e l d . Perhaps we c o u l d , t h e n , s u g g e s t two o t h e r h y p o t h e s e s about i n f o r m a t i o n t r a n s m i s s i o n i n open and c l o s e d systems. These are meant as general suggestions f o r f u r t h e r research and we s h a l l not t r y to define them i n o p e r a t i o n a l terms here. F i r s t we might modify our own hypothesis. I t might have been more accurate to hypothesize that i n closed p o l i t i e s , where the leadership a c t i v e l y represses d i s s i d e n t opinion bureaucrats w i l l be l e s s l i k e l y to provide the leadership with information c o n t r a d i c t i n g i t s known p o s i t i o n than i n open p o l i t i e s . Secondly, based on the t h e o r e t i c a l argument which appears i n the preceding few paragraphs we could hypothesize that i n s o c i e t i e s which appear to be i n the process of major p o l i t i c a l transformation, bureaucrats are more l i k e l y to provide d i s s i d e n t information to the leadership than i n w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d , r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e s o c i e t i e s . There are a number of d e f i n i t i o n a l problems here and the hypotheses might have to be reformulated some-what before they could be tested. But i n the main, they express some of the t h e o r e t i c a l inferences that could be drawn from t h i s study. The p r o p o s i t i o n that Germany was more of a t r a n s i -t i o n a l p o l i t y than a closed p o l i t y can only p a r t i a l l y e x p l a i n the f a c t that our hypothesis was not supported. There are a number of other f a c t o r s which we could not c o n t r o l but which may have a f f e c t e d our r e s u l t s . One such f a c t o r was the Emperor's p e r s o n a l i t y . I t i s c l e a r from the docu-ments and the secondary sources that he was h i g h l y changeable and prone to take extreme p o s i t i o n s . He allowed himself to - 82 -be swayed by h i s e m o t i o n s . B e c a u s e he was so a g g r e s s i v e and o c c a s i o n a l l y i r r a t i o n a l he must have made i t d i f f i c u l t f o r h i s more s o b e r a d v i s o r s n o t t o d i s a g r e e w i t h him. T h i s no d o u b t b i a s e d t h e r e s u l t s i n f a v o r o f t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s . However, we s h o u l d n o t e h e r e t h a t t h e r e was s t i l l some d i s -agreement between t h e more c o n s e r v a t i v e B ethmann-Hollweg and L i c h n o w s k y , and t h a t d i s c o r d was n o t e n t i r e l y l i m i t e d t o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e K a i s e r and h i s m i n i s t e r s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , i t may have been d i f f i c u l t f o r B r i t i s h b u r e a u c r a t s t o d i s a g r e e w i t h Edward G r e y ' s p o s i t i o n s . I n g e n e r a l he was i n f a v o r o f n e g o t i a t i o n and p e a c e . T h i s c o u l d be i n t e r p r e t e d as t h e e q u i v a l e n t o f b e i n g i n f a v o r o f "motherhood." I n o t h e r w o r d s , n e a r l y e v e r y b o d y i s i n f a v o r o f t h e k i n d s o f p o s i t i o n s w h i c h he a d v o c a t e d . P e r h a p s t h i s m i g h t a c c o u n t f o r t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e was s o l i t t l e d i s a g r e e m e n t w i t h h i s p o l i c i e s . One o t h e r f a c t o r t h a t may have a f f e c t e d t h e outcome o f o u r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . The month and a h a l f b e f o r e t h e War, and p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e f i n a l week, was u n d o u b t e d l y a p e r i o d o f u n u s u a l t e n s i o n i n E u r o p e a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . The i n c r e a s e d s t r a i n p r o b a b l y c a u s e d t h e Emperor t o be more i r r i t a b l e and extreme t h a n u s u a l . P r o f e s s o r O l e H o l s t i has shown t h a t as t h e pre-War c r i s i s became more a c u t e , t h e i n c o m i n g messages became more stereotyped in- content. Perhaps i n the B r i t i s h case t h i s meant that there was less dissent than usual. That might also have biased the r e s u l t s . A f t e r a l l these q u a l i f i c a t i o n s and explanations i s i t s t i l l p ossible f o r us to generalize from our r e s u l t s to the theory with which we began t h i s paper? C e r t a i n l y we cannot contend that Professor F a r r e l l and Professor Fainsod were wrong. The results- of our analysis may have cast some shadow of doubt on the u n i v e r s a l i t y of the proposition we have i n v e s t i g a t e d , but, as we have explained above, i t may be that the hypothesis s t i l l holds true f o r most comparisons of open and closed systems. Only further research can determine the v a l i d i t y of the proposition. We might, however, t e n t a t i v e l y suggest some of the t h e o r e t i c a l i m p l i -cations of our f i n d i n g s , keeping i n mind that the r e s u l t s of t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n are by no means conclusive. I f i n f a c t a free flow of information can be main-tained w i t h i n a closed p o l i t i c a l system then perhaps the suppositions which we presented i n the Introduction about closedness being a disadvantage i n foreign p o l i c y formation are i n c o r r e c t . I f a u t h o r i t a r i a n p o l i t i c a l leaders can preserve a l l the advantages of closedness, secrecy, f l e x i -b i l i t y , and a l a c r i t y i n decision making, and yet avoid Ole R. H o l s t i , "The 1914 Case," Bobbs-Merrill Reprint Number PS-392, reprinted from APSR, v o l . LIX, no. 2 (June 1965), pp. 375-376. impeding t h e passage o f i n f o r m a t i o n , be i t a g r e e a b l e o r o t h e r w i s e , t h e n i t would seem t h a t they might be more s u c -c e s s f u l i n t h e f i e l d o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . However, the d i f f e r e n c e s h e r e between open and c l o s e d systems would p r o b a b l y be m i n i m i z e d because by a l l o w i n g t h e m s e l v e s t o be r e c e p t i v e t o a l l shades o f o p i n i o n on major i s s u e s a u t h o r i -t a r i a n l e a d e r s , assuming t h a t t h e y p e r c e i v e and a c t i n a r a t i o n a l manner, would be f o r c e d t o c o n s i d e r t h e p o s s i b l e con-sequences o f t h e i r d e c i s i o n s . I t seems l i k e l y t h a t t h i s f a c t o r would s e r v e as a t l e a s t a p a r t i a l r e s t r a i n t , and t h a t the p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r q u i c k , a r b i t r a r y judgements would be somewhat r e d u c e d . I n a d d i t i o n , by a l l o w i n g the f r e e e x p r e s s i o n o f o p i n i o n , t h e l e a d e r s h i p i n a c l o s e d p o l i t y would p r o b a b l y encourage th e growth o f competing f a c t i o n s w i t h i n t h e g o v e r n -i n g e l i t e , a t l e a s t t o some e x t e n t . T h i s seems t o have been the case i n Germany, a l t h o u g h we use t h i s example w i t h c a u t i o n . The Emperor and t h e m i l i t a r y appear t o have advocated one p o s i t i o n and the more c o n s e r v a t i v e b u r e a u c r a t s a n o t h e r . C o m p e t i t i o n between two such groups would p r o b a b l y r e s u l t i n i n c r e a s e d c o n f u s i o n and d e c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y i n the f i e l d o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y f o r m a t i o n w i t h i n t h e c l o s e d s o c i e t y . Germany does n o t seem t o have had a v e r y e f f e c t i v e , s i n g l e - m i n d e d f o r e i g n p o l i c y d u r i n g the month and a h a l f b e f o r e the War, perhaps p a r t i a l l y f o r the above mentioned r e a s o n . A b a l a n c e - 85 -between f r e e f l o w of i n f o r m a t i o n and very e f f i c i e n t f o r e i g n p o l i c y would appear to be d i f f i c u l t t o a t t a i n . Whether these i d e a s are c o r r e c t or n o t , they do suggest some areas f o r f u r t h e r study. We might a l s o be l e d by our i n v e s t i g a t i o n to look f o r v a r i a b l e s o t h e r than openness and closedness which c o u l d c o n c e i v a b l y i n f l u e n c e i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w s . For i n s t a n c e , per-haps the p e r s o n a l i t y of the l e a d e r s h i p has more t o do w i t h the f r e e passage o f i n f o r m a t i o n than openness o r clo s e d n e s s . An a u t h o r i t a r i a n l e a d e r who was n e v e r t h e l e s s f a i r l y r e c e p t i v e might i n h i b i t the f l o w of i n f o r m a t i o n much l e s s than a h a r s h , r e p r e s s i v e , democratic l e a d e r . One c o u l d i n v e s t i g a t e t h i s p r o p o s i t i o n by choosing cases i n which i n f o r m a t i o n i s known to have been w i t h h e l d and comparing them w i t h cases i n which i t i s known t o have been o f f e r e d f r e e l y . These, then, are j u s t a few suggestions f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i n the area of i n f o r m a t i o n t r a n s m i s s i o n . We are a l o n g way y e t from f i l l i n g i n Rosenau's grand d e s i g n . But he has presented us w i t h some worthwhile i d e a l s . We must work toward them, at l e a s t i n g e n e r a l , i f we are to b u i l d up a t r u l y u s e f u l r e s e r v e of comparable, d e t a i l e d knowledge about f o r e i g n p o l i c y and i t s f o r m a t i o n . B I B L I O G R A P H Y - 87 -DOCUMENTS Germany. Outbreak o f t h e World War. German Documents c o l l e c t e d by K a r l K a u t s k y , e d i t e d by Max M o n t g e l a s and W a l t h u r S c h u c k i n g . T r a n s l a t e d by t h e C a r n e g i e Endowment f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Peace. New York, O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1924. G r e a t B r i t a i n . B r i t i s h Documents on t h e O r i g i n s o f t h e War 1898-1914. E d i t e d by G.P. Gooch and H a r o l d Temperley. London, H i s M a j e s t y ' s S t a t i o n e r y O f f i c e , 1926, v o l . X I . SECONDARY SOURCES: Books A r o n , R. Peace and War. Garden C i t y , New York, Doubleday, 1966 . Benson, C F . The K a i s e r and t h e E n g l i s h R e l a t i o n s . London, Longmans, Green & Co., 1936. C a r r , W. A H i s t o r y o f Germany: 1815-19 45. London, G. B e l l and Sons, 1927. C h u r c h i l l , R.S. Winston S. C h u r c h i l l . London, Heinemann, 1967, v o l . I I . C h u r c h i l l , S i r W.S. The World C r i s i s , 1911-1914. New York, C. S c r i b n e r ' s Sons, 1928. C o l e , T. ed. European P o l i t i c a l Systems. New York, A.A. Knopf, 1959. Cooke, W.H. Readings i n European I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s S i n c e 1879. New York, Harper and B r o s . , 1931. Cowles, V. The K a i s e r . New York, Harper and Row, 1963. Cramb, J.A. Germany and E n g l a n d . London, J . Murray, 1914. Dawson, W.H. E v o l u t i o n o f Modern Germany. New York, C. S c r i b n e r ' s Sons, 1908. de T o c q u e v i l l e , A. Democracy i n America. New York, V i n t a g e Books, 1959, v o l s . 1 and 2. - 88 -Dugdale, E.T.S. ed. German D i p l o m a t i c Documents, 1871-1914. London, Metheun and Co., 1931. F a r r e l l , R.B. ed. Approaches t o Comparative and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s . Evanston, Northwestern U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966. Fay, S.B. The O r i g i n s of the World War. New York, The Free P r e s s , second e d i t i o n , 1966. F i n e r , H. The Major Governments of Modern Europe. New York, Harper and Row, 1960. F r a n k e l , J . The Making o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y . Oxford U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1963. F r i e d r i c h , C.J. T o t a l i t a r i a n i s m . Cambridge, Harvard U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1954. F r i e d r i c h , C.J. T o t a l i t a r i a n D i c t a t o r s h i p and Autocracy. Cambridge, Harvard U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1965. Great B r i t a i n . Board of Trade. S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t f o r the U.K., 1840-1922. London, 1854-19. Great B r i t a i n . C e n t r a l O f f i c e of I n f o r m a t i o n . B r i t a i n : an O f f i c i a l Handbook. Grey, S i r E. Twenty-Five Years, 1892-1916. London, Hodder and Stoughton L t d . , 1925. Gross, F. F o r e i g n P o l i c y A n a l y s i s . New York, P h i l o s o p h i c a l L i b r a r y , 1954. Habakkuk, H.J. and Postan, M. The Cambridge Economic H i s t o r y of Europe. Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1965, v o l . V I . Hale, A.J. P u b l i c i t y and Diplomacy: B r i t a i n and Germany, 1890-1914. New York, D. Appleton-Century Co., 1940. H a v i g h u r s t , A.F. Twentieth Century B r i t a i n . New York, Harper and Row, second e d i t i o n , 1962. Heidenheimer, A.J. The Governments of Germany. New York, Thomas Y. C r o w e l l Co., 1961. Hopwood, R.F. Germany: People and P o l i t i c s , 1750-19 45. London, O l i v e r and Boyd, 196 8. - 89 -Kennan, G.F. /American Diplomacy: 1900-1950. C h i c a g o , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1951. Lippmann, W. The P u b l i c P h i l o s o p h y . T o r o n t o , L i t t l e , Brown & Co., 1955. Murray, G. The F o r e i g n P o l i c y o f S i r Edward Grey. O x f o r d , The C l a r e n d o n P r e s s , 1915. Radway, L . I . F o r e i g n P o l i c y and N a t i o n a l D e f e n c e : The L i b e r a l Democracy i n World A f f a i r s . A t l a n t a , S c o t t , Foresman & Co., 1969. R e y n o l d s , E.E. B r i t a i n i n t h e T w e n t i e t h C e n t u r y . Cambridge, A t t h e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966. Rosenau, J.N. U n t i t l e d m a n u s c r i p t on c o m p a r a t i v e f o r e i g n p o l i c y . S u p p l i e d by P r o f e s s o r O l e R. H o l s t i . Seton-Watson, R.W. e t a l . The War and Democracy. London, M a c M i l l a n and Co., 1919. Seymour, C. The D i p l o m a t i c Background o f the War 1870-1914. New Haven, Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1916. The Statesman's Yearbook. London, M a c M i l l a n and Co. S t u d e n s k i , P. The Income o f N a t i o n s . New York, New York U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 195 8. T i r p i t z , Grand A d m i r a l von. My Memoirs. London, H u r s t and B l a c k e t t L t d . , 1919. T r e u e , W. Germany S i n c e 1848. Bad Godesberg, I n t e r N a t i o n e s , 1968. W a l t z , K.N. F o r e i g n P o l i c y and D e m o c r a t i c P o l i t i c s : The A m e r i c a n and B r i t i s h E x p e r i e n c e . B o s t o n , L i t t l e , Brown & Co., 1965. W i l l i a m I I , Emperor o f Germany. The K a i s e r ' s Memoirs. New Y o r k , Harper and B r o t h e r s , 19 22. SECONDARY SOURCES: A r t i c l e s H a n r e i d e r , W.F. " C o m p a t i b i l i t y and Consensus: a p r o p o s a l f o r t h e c o n c e p t u a l l i n k a g e o f e x t e r n a l and i n t e r n a l dimen-s i o n s o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y . " American P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Review, 6 1 ( 4 ) , December 1967, pp. 971-982. - 90 -H o l s t i , O.R. "The 1914 Case," i n J . E . M u e l l e r , e d . , Approaches t o Measurement i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s . New Y o r k , A p p l e t o n - C e n t u r y - C r o f t s , 1969, pp.226-248. Hermann, C F . "The Comparative Study o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y . " World P o l i t i c s , 2 0 ( 3 ) , A p r i l 1968, pp. 521-534. K i s s i n g e r , H.A. "Domestic S t r u c t u r e and F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " D a e d a l u s , S p r i n g 1966, pp. 503-529. S t r a n g , L o r d . " F o r e i g n P o l i c y i n a Democracy," The L i s t e n e r , 17, J a n u a r y 1957, p. 57. BIBLIOGRAPHIES B r i t i s h Museum. Department o f P r i n t e d Books. S u b j e c t Index o f Books R e l a t i n g t o World War I . P r i n t e d by o r d e r o f t h e T r u s t e e s , 1922. C o u n c i l f o r t h e Study o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s . The Causes o f t h e War: what t o r e a d . P u b l i s h e d by The C o u n c i l , 1915. 

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