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Communications and political behavior in the international system; explorations into theory, method,… McMaster, Barrie Glenholme 1969

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COMMUNICATIONS AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM: EXPLORATIONS INTO THEORY, METHOD, AND SUBSTANCE by B a r r i e Glenholme McMaster B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1965 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n t h e Department o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d standard^. THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ABSTRACT T h i s s t u d y d e a l s w i t h p o s s i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n l e v e l s o f n a t i o n s t a t e s and t h e i r b e h a v i o r i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system. The p u r p o s e o f t h e s t u d y i s p u r e l y e x p l o r a t o r y . Drawing upon t h e l i t e r -a t u r e o f d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n s t u d i e s and t h e systems framework o f D a v i d E a s t o n , t h e a u t h o r i n v e s t i g a t e s t h e r e l e v a n c e and i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y o f d a t a s o u r c e s , and t h e sub-s t a n t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n f o r m a t i o n and b e h a v i o r . The a u t h o r s u g g e s t s t h a t a b a s i c m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e E a s t o n m o d e l — t h e a d d i t i o n o f a membership e n v i r o n m e n t — makes t h e framework a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r -n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , and shows p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o be a s a l i e n t v a r i a b l e , p r e v i o u s l y o v e r l o o k e d i n s y s t e m i c a n a l y s e s of i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . A t t e n t i o n i s d e v o t e d t o t h e u t i l i t y o f news i n d e x and news summary s o u r c e s f o r b e h a v i o r a l d a t a . U s i n g c o r r e -l a t i o n a l t e c h n i q u e s , t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r f i n d s t h a t t h e advan-t a g e s o f a v a i l a b i l i t y and economy o f t h e s e s o u r c e s a r e somewhat o f f s e t by t h e e x i s t e n c e o f b i a s e s ; no c o n c l u s i o n s can be drawn, t h e a u t h o r s u g g e s t s , u n t i l a more s y s t e m a t i c assessment o f t h e s e s o u r c e s i s u n d e r t a k e n . U s i n g a r a n d o m i z a t i o n t e s t f o r matched p a i r s o f twenty n a t i o n s t a t e s , t h e s t u d y i n d i c a t e s a p r o b a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e e x t e n t o f i n f o r m a t i o n c h a n n e l s and t h e s y s t e m i c o r i e n t a t i o n o f s t a t e s ' i n t e r n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r . The i n f o r m a t i o n c h a n n e l s u t i l i z e d i n t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n a r e d i p l o m a t i c exchanges and memberships i n i n t e r - g o v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s . The s u b s t a n t i v e f i n d i n g s a r e t h e n r e l a t e d t o t h e b e h a v i o r a l d a t a s o u r c e q u e s t i o n , and t o t h e f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h a b i l i t y o f t h e p r oblem. The a u t h o r c o n c l u d e s t h a t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e p i l o t s t u d y a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y i n t e r e s t i n g t o w a r r a n t f u l l e r i n v e s -t i g a t i o n o f b o t h t h e h y p o t h e s i s and t h e s o u r c e b i a s problem. TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER I . INFORMATION: A DETERMINANT OF ACTION?. . . 2 The L i t e r a t u r e 2 The Concept o f I n f o r m a t i o n i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s 4 I I . INFORMATION AS A KEY FACTOR IN THE OPERATION OF INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMS: THE MODEL 9 The Assumptions o f E a s t o n v s . C u r r e n t Views o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l System . . . 10 The Model and i t s A d a p t a t i o n s 14 A New F e a t u r e o f t h e Mo d e l : L i n k a g e s i n t h e Membership E n v i r o n m e n t and t h e i r R e l e v a n c e 19 Examples o f t h e Model i n O p e r a t i o n . . . . 24 Summary 26 I I I . DATA SOURCES FOR RESEARCH INTO INTER-NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS AND BEHAVIOR. . . 28 Communications D a t a 28 H i s t o r i c a l B e h a v i o r a l D a t a 31 Contemporary B e h a v i o r a l Data 32 V CHAPTER PAGE IV. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM 36 The Hypotheses and R e s e a r c h D e s i g n 38 S o u r c e s 41 The S a m p l i n g P r o c e d u r e 44 C o d i n g C a t e g o r i e s 46 C o d i n g P r o c e d u r e 57 S t a t i s t i c a l P r o c e d u r e s 59 V. RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH 61 S u b s t a n t i v e R e s u l t s 61 Problem: Sampling 66 Problem: B i a s e d Data? 66 Problem: C o d i n g 69 V I . CONCLUSIONS 74 T h e o r e t i c a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s 74 The R e s e a r c h D e s i g n and R e s u l t s 78 Co d i n g and S o u r c e s 81 Summary 83 BIBLIOGRAPHY 84 APPENDIX A: SYSTEM NORMS AND RULES 89 APPENDIX B: DETAILS OF DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGE DATA— ITS COLLECTION, DERIVATION AND CODING . . 97 v i PAGE APPENDIX C: CODING 101 APPENDIX D: SPECIMEN DATA SHEET 108 APPENDIX E: TESTS FOR BIAS IN BEHAVIORAL DATA SOURCES 109 v i i L IST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I . C a t e g o r i z a t i o n o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l B e h a v i o r by-Two V a r i a b l e s — N u m b e r o f N a t i o n s and P a y o f f 49 I I . Sample N a t i o n S t a t e s i n P a i r e d F o r m a t i o n , C o n t r o l l i n g f o r DE L e v e l (^10%), and T e s t i n g f o r S y s t e m - O r i e n t e d B e h a v i o r by M a n i p u l a t i n g Independent V a r i a b l e , IGO Memberships 62 I I I . Sample N a t i o n S t a t e s i n P a i r e d F o r m a t i o n , C o n t r o l l i n g f o r IGO Memberships (^10%), and T e s t i n g f o r S y s t e m - O r i e n t e d B e h a v i o r by M a n i p u l a t i n g Independent V a r i a b l e , DE L e v e l ( A l t e r n a t i v e H y p o t h e s i s ) 64 IV. Comparison o f R e s u l t s under t h e R e s e a r c h H y p o t h e s i s w i t h Rank D i s c r e p a n c i e s i n Data Source Coverage 69 V. C a l c u l a t i o n s f o r PI V a l u e 71 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The f i n a l shape o f t h i s p r e l i m i n a r y s t u d y emerged a f t e r a l e n g t h y b u t i n t e r e s t i n g p e r i o d o f r e a d i n g , d i s -c u s s i o n , and t h o u g h t . The a u t h o r i s t h u s i n d e b t e d t o a l a r g e number o f p e r s o n s , b o t h h i s p r o f e s s o r s and f e l l o w s t u d e n t s , f o r t h e i r a s s i s t a n c e . I t i s p o s s i b l e h e r e t o thank o n l y a few o f them. Dr. S t e v e n J . Brams o f S y r a c u s e U n i v e r s i t y was most generous w i t h h i s d a t a , and s u p p l i e d i n f o r m a t i o n and a s s i s -t a n c e i n t h e i r u s e . The s t i m u l a t i o n and development o f most o f my t h e o r e -t i c a l i n t e r e s t s a r e t r a c e a b l e t o P r o f e s s o r K a l e v i H o l s t i o f the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , whose g r a d u a t e s e m i n a r i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s t h e o r y and encouragement i n p r i v a t e c o n v e r s a t i o n s were o f i n c a l c u l a b l e a s s i s t a n c e . My a d o p t i o n and m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e E a s t o n i a n model would p r o -b a b l y n o t have been p o s s i b l e w i t h o u t t h e h e l p f u l a d v i c e o f E l l e n Samuels Baar. I am g r a t e f u l a l s o t o my f e l l o w s t u d e n t s and o f f i c e - m a t e , J . Edward Greene, f o r i n c i s i v e comments and a s s i s t a n c e a t c r u c i a l p o i n t s d u r i n g my attempts t o f o r m u l a t e the problems I d e a l w i t h i n t h i s t h e s i s . To P r o f e s s o r O l e H o l s t i o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia I owe my g r e a t e s t d e b t . W i t h o u t h i s p a t i e n c e and c o n s t a n t h e l p , b o t h p r i v a t e l y and i n h i s seminar i n b e h a v i o r a l methodology, t h i s t h e s i s c o u l d n e v e r have been a c c o m p l i s h e d . I owe a d e b t o f g r a t i t u d e t o my w i f e , Donna, and t o my t h r e e c h i l d r e n whose e n c o u r a g e m e n t — e a c h i n t h e i r own w a y — c o n t i n u a l l y p r o v i d e d t h e m o t i v a t i o n and mood t o p r o c e e d w i t h my work. Any e r r o r s o f commission o r o m i s s i o n a r e , o f c o u r s e , my own. INTRODUCTION T h i s p a p e r e x p l o r e s two p r o b l e m s . One r e l a t e s t o communications as a v a r i a b l e a f f e c t i n g t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r o f n a t i o n s . The o t h e r c o n c e r n s methods o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n and use. The r e s e a r c h r e p o r t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s was u n d e r t a k e n as a p i l o t s t u d y ; c o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e dominant o r i e n t a t i o n i s t h e o r e t i c a l and m e t h o d o l o g i c a l , n o t sub-s t a n t i v e . The two r e l a t e d problems t o be e x p l o r e d a r i s e from a l a r g e number o f s o u r c e s i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e b o t h o f d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e and o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . The r e -s e a r c h e r has drawn on m a t e r i a l s as d i v e r s e as c y b e r n e t i c t h e o r y , d i p l o m a t i c h i s t o r y , i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e g r a t i o n , v o t i n g s t u d i e s , systems a n a l y s i s , and a g g r e g a t e d a t a r e s e a r c h f o r a s s i s t a n c e i n c o n s i d e r i n g t h e p r o b l e m and i t s r a m i f i c a t i o n s . The term 'communication' i s a b r o a d one. To s t a t e t h a t i t i s a r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f p o l i t i c s a t any l e v e l i s n e i t h e r new n o r p a r t i c u l a r l y i n f o r m a t i v e . Many avenues o f communication have been w e l l e x p l o r e d , b u t l i t t l e o f t h i s work s p e c i f i c a l l y has been a p p l i e d o r a t t e m p t e d i n the i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l systems. CHAPTER I INFORMATION: A DETERMINANT OF ACTION? In t h i s s t u d y , t h e a s p e c t o f communication t o be i n -v e s t i g a t e d i s p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y as a p p l i e d t o s y s t e m i c a n a l y s i s . The b a s i c p r o b l e m c o u l d be s t a t e d t h u s : What l e v e l o f p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n do n a t i o n s p o s s e s s , and how does t h i s r e l a t e t o t h e i r b e h a v i o r i n t h e i n t e r -n a t i o n a l system? The r e l a t e d q u e s t i o n asks how t h e r e s e a r c h e r can d e t e r m i n e p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n l e v e l s and t h e i r b e a r i n g on b e h a v i o r . The problems d e r i v e from a s t i m u l u s - r e s p o n s e view o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r , a rough model f o r which w i l l be d i s c u s s e d below. The L i t e r a t u r e V o t i n g s t u d i e s have p r o v i d e d a w e a l t h o f d a t a on t h e r e l e v a n c e o f p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y . F o r example, M i l b r a t h c i t e s t w e l v e s t u d i e s which s u p p o r t t h e h y p o t h e s i s , " . . . t h e more s t i m u l i about p o l i -t i c s a p e r s o n r e c e i v e s , t h e g r e a t e r t h e l i k e l i h o o d he w i l l p a r t i c i p a t e i n p o l i t i c s , and t h e g r e a t e r t h e d e p t h o f h i s 1 p a r t i c i p a t i o n . " S t i m u l i i n the form o f mere i n f o r m a t i o n , 1 L e s t e r W. M i l b r a t h , P o l i t i c a l P a r t i c i p a t i o n : How and Why do P e o p l e Get I n v o l v e d i n P o l i t i c s ? ( C h i c a g o : Rand M c N a l l y ) 1965, p. 39. 3 however, are not s u f f i c i e n t t o generate s i g n i f i c a n t a c t i v i t y : the i n f o r m a t i o n must be i n t e r p r e t e d . At the domestic l e v e l , f a c e - t o - f a c e communication tends t o f u l f i l l t h i s r o l e . 2 ". . . persons p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n i n f o r m a l p o l i t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n s , " a c c o r d i n g t o f i v e s t u d i e s c i t e d by M i l b r a t h , "are more l i k e l y than nondiscussants t o vote and p a r t i c i p a t e i n o t h e r ways i n 3 the p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s . " K i r k p a t r i c k - - a l t h o u g h he w r i t e s i n the c o n t e x t of c r i s i s s i t u a t i o n s - - m a k e s a s i m i l a r o b s e r v a t i o n : ". . . p r e s e n t i n g j u s t the f a c t s o r the ' t r u t h ' alone i s s i m p l y not enough. The f a c t s must a l s o be i n t e r p r e t e d . " 4 A l l of these o b s e r v a t i o n s have emerged from the study of p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s . At the governmental l e v e l , a s i m i l a r tendency can be seen. A study of d e c i s i o n makers i n t h r e e i n t e r n a t i o n a l and two domestic c r i s e s , f o r example, found t h a t no d e c i s i o n o r a wrong d e c i s i o n was taken i n each case because of the absence of a c o r r e c t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of news which the d e c i s i o n makers had r e c e i v e d . ^ Awareness of the importance of c o r r e c t l y z S e e , f o r example, E l i h u K a t z , "The Two Step Flow of Communications: An Up-to-Date Report on the Hypothesis," P u b l i c Opinion Q u a r t e r l y , XXI (Spring 1957), pp. 61-78. 3 M i l b r a t h , op. c i t . , p. 40. 4 F.P. K i r k p a t r i c k , "Problems of P e r c e p t i o n m Extreme S i t u a t i o n s , " Human O r g a n i z a t i o n , XVI, 2 (1957), p. 21. 5 See Benno Wasserman, "The F a i l u r e of I n t e l l i g e n c e P r e d i c t i o n , " P o l i t i c a l S t u d i e s , V I I , 2 (1960), pp. 156-169. i n t e r p r e t e d i n f o r m a t i o n was shown by t h e B r i t i s h F o r e i g n O f f i c e when i t communicated t o U n i t e d S t a t e s S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e D u l l e s 6 v i a American S e c r e t S e r v i c e a g e n t s . R e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h i s t e n d ency a r e n e i t h e r so d i r e c t n o r so numerous a t t h e d e c i s i o n making l e v e l as t h e y a r e a t t h e i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l , b u t n o t h i n g e x i s t s t o c o n t r a d i c t t h e p l a u s i b i l i t y o f a p p l y i n g t h e o b s e r v a t i o n s o f p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s t o g o v e r n -m e n t a l d e c i s i o n makers. I t can be assumed w i t h r e a s o n a b l e c e r t a i n t y t h a t t h e l e v e l o f p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n , and i n p a r t i c u l a r , the l e v e l o f i n t e r p r e t e d p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n , i s an i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t o f p o l i t i c a l a c t i o n , whether among p r i v a t e p e r s o n s o r among g o v e r n m e n t a l d e c i s i o n makers. The Concept o f I n f o r m a t i o n i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s D i s c u s s i o n has so f a r c e n t r e d on t h e r e l e v a n c e o f i n -t e r p r e t e d p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o i n d i v i d u a l p o l i t i c a l b e h a v i o r , b u t no a t t e n t i o n has been g i v e n t o t h e c o n c e p t ' s a p p l i c a t i o n t o the a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l systems. The t r a n s i t i o n from one l e v e l o f a n a l y s i s t o a n o t h e r can be made w i t h o u t v i o l a t i o n o f S i n g e r ' s c a v e a t , as t h e comments below w i l l make c l e a r . 6 R i c h a r d GooId-Adams, The Time o f Power: A R e a p p r a i s a l o f John F o s t e r D u l l e s (London: W e i d e n f e l d and N i c o l s o n , 1962) , p~. 309, c i t e d i n D a v i d J . F i n l a y , O l e R. H o l s t i and R i c h a r d R. Fagen, Enemies i n P o l i t i c s ( C h i c a g o : Rand M c N a l l y , 1967), p. 95. 7 See J . D a v i d S i n g e r , "The L e v e l - o f - A n a l y s i s Problem i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , " i n The I n t e r n a t i o n a l System: Theore-t i c a l E s s a y s , ed. K l a u s K n o r r and S i d n e y V e r b a ( P r i n c e t o n : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1961), pp. 77-92, e s p e c i a l l y p.90. 5 S u b s t a n t i v e l y and a n a l y t i c a l l y , a n a t i o n s t a t e i n t h e contemporary system a c t s t h r o u g h i t s a g e n t s , f o r whom th e o b s e r v a t i o n s n o t e d above s h o u l d h o l d . T h i s group o f a g e n t s - -t h e g o v e r n m e n t — i s a c t i n g w i t h i n a more complex m i l i e u and a c t i n g on b e h a l f o f p e r s o n s o t h e r t h a n t h e m s e l v e s ; members o f the group, however, o b v i o u s l y r e a c t t o t h e s t i m u l i o f p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n i n a manner s i m i l a r t o p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s . A l t h o u g h the r e s e a r c h i n t e r e s t i s t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system, t h e a v a i l a b l e e m p i r i c a l d a t a a r e b a s e d upon the n a t i o n s t a t e and i t s a g e n t s . I n o t h e r words, i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s r e s e a r c h e r s must approach s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e s by o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n a t t h e l e v e l o f t h e n a t i o n s t a t e , as C h a r l e s M c C l e l l a n d n o t e s : The system t h e o r i s t who c o n s i d e r s i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s would be v e r y l i k e l y t o t u r n h i s a t t e n t i o n v e r y e a r l y t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f how n a t i o n s a c t on each o t h e r . He would seek o u t one o f a number o f p r o m i n e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s o f p a r t s r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The i n t e r a c t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e n o t t h e o n l y s o u r c e o f c o n c e i v a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b u t t h e y a r e t h e b a s i s o f t h e main r e l a t i o n a l p r o -p e r t i e s i n a l m o s t any i m a g i n a b l e system.8 Data b a s e d on n a t i o n a l a c t o r s a r e a p p l i c a b l e and r e l e v a n t t o q u e s t i o n s about the i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. We r e t u r n t o t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f g e n e r a l communications, t h i s time i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between n a t i o n s . 8 C h a r l e s A. M c C l e l l a n d , " D r i v i n g o u t t h e H o l l o w n e s s : The Reshaping o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Systems Theory," (Mimeo, U n i v e r s i t y o f S o u t h e r n C a l i f o r n i a , 1968) , p. 8. 6 At the i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l , i n t e g r a t i o n t h e o r i s t s have long made communications an i n t e g r a l p a r t of t h e i r s tudy, but they have used the concept i n the broad sense. A m i t a i E t z i o n i , E r n s t Haas, and K a r l Deutsch d e a l w i t h communications i n f u n c t i o n of common g o a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t , 'images' and expec-t a t i o n s among i n t e g r a t i v e n a t i o n s , s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , and economic t r a n s a c t i o n s . T h e i r view n a t u r a l l y i n c l u d e s the members of i n t e r e s t e d e l i t e s w i t h i n each country s t u d i e d , so t h a t the e m p i r i c a l area of i n t e r e s t ranges w i d e l y among types of message senders, channels of t r a n s m i s s i o n , and t a r g e t s . 9 Systems t h e o r i s t s , t o o , have d e a l t w i t h broad aspects of communications. Morton Kaplan i n c l u d e d p o l i t i c a l i n f o r -mation and communications channels i n h i s de d u c t i v e framework.' R i c h a r d Rosecrance gave some c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o i n t e r - n a t i o n communication w i t h i n h i s systemic a n a l y s i s , but h i s focus i n t h i s r e s p e c t was more c l o s e l y a l i g n e d w i t h the i n t e g r a t i o n -i s t s ' a p p r o a c h . 1 1 More r e c e n t l y , Rudolph Rummel s u b j e c t e d "'See f o r example, A m i t a i E t z i o n i , P o l i t i c a l U n i f i c a t i o n (New York: H o l t , R i n e h a r t , 1965), Chap, one; E r n s t B. Hass, The U n i t i n g o f Europe ( S t a n f o r d : S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1957), I n t r o d u c t i o n ; K a r l W. D e u t s c h , "Communication Theory and P o l i t i -c a l I n t e g r a t i o n , " and " T r a n s a c t i o n Flows as I n d i c a t o r s o f P o l i t i c a l C o h e s i o n , " Chap, two and t h r e e r e s p e c t i v e l y , i n The I n t e g r a t i o n o f P o l i t i c a l Communities, ed. P h i l i p E. Jacob and James V. Toscano ( P h i l a d e l p h i a : L i p p i n c o t t , 1965), pp. 46-97, and o t h e r s . "^Morton A. K a p l a n , System and P r o c e s s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s (New York: W i l e y , 1957). U s e e R i c h a r d N. R o s e c r a n c e , A c t i o n and R e a c t i o n i n World P o l i t i c s (Boston: L i t t l e , Brown, 1963). 7 i n d i c a t o r s o f c o m m u n i c a t i o n s — a l o n g w i t h many o t h e r v a r i a b l e s -1 2 t o f a c t o r a n a l y s i s i n h i s D i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f N a t i o n s P r o j e c t . S t e v e n Brams, perhaps more t h a n any o t h e r s y s t e m i c r e s e a r c h e r , has c o n c e n t r a t e d on communications, b u t he l o o k e d f o r ' s a l i e n t 1 r e l a t i o n s h i p s between n a t i o n s , i n l a r g e p a r t on the communications b a s i s . 1 3 s t a t i n g t h a t " i t i s o u r c o n t e n -t i o n t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e s t h e p o t e n t i o n f o r p o l i t i c a l c o n t r o l , B r a m s i n v e s t i g a t e d t r a n s a c t i o n f l o w s b a s e d on t h r e e i n d i c a t o r s , two o f them communications. H i s concen-t r a t i o n on i n t e r - n a t i o n l i n k a g e maps p r o d u c e d i n t e r e s t i n g and w o r t h w h i l e r e s u l t s , b u t t h e r e s e a r c h was d i r e c t e d t o answer q u e s t i o n s a r i s i n g from a d i f f e r e n t c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e i n t e r -n a t i o n a l system. T h i s view stems from t h e p r o b l e m o f mapping i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e ; t h e a l t e r n a t i v e c o n c e r n , embraced by t h i s a u t h o r , a r i s e s from a b r o a d e r i n t e r e s t — s y s t e m o p e r a t i o n -a l t h o u g h the two b a s i c c o n c e p t s a r e n o t a n t i t h e t i c a l . The model on which t h i s p r o j e c t i s b a s e d was l a r g e l y i n s p i r e d by t h e g e n e r a l p o l i t i c a l systems framework o f D a v i d E a s t o n ( a l t h o u g h i n t e r e s t i n E a s t o n o r i g i n a l l y was a r o u s e d by the works o f K a p l a n and R o s e c r a n c e , d i s c u s s e d a b o v e ) . E v a l u -a t i o n can be ba s e d o n l y on a n t i c i p a t e d u t i l i t y ; on t h i s b a s i s , ^ 2 S e e R.J. Rummel, "Some Dimensions on t h e F o r e i g n B e h a v i o r o f N a t i o n s , " J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h , 3 (1966), pp.201-224, and o t h e r s o f h i s p u b l i c a t i o n s . 13 See S t e v e n J . Brams, " T r a n s a c t i o n Flows i n t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l System," American P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Review, LX, 4 (December 1966), pp. 880-898. - ^ S t e v e n J . Brams, "Flow and Form i n t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y s t e m " ( U n p u b l i s h e d D o c t o r a l D i s s e r t a t i o n , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , 1966), p. 7. 8 t h e a u t h o r b e l i e v e s systems models t o be o f more u l t i m a t e v a l u e i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s r e s e a r c h t h a n any o t h e r a p p r o a c h . I n o t h e r words, i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e system and i t s o p e r a t i o n would seem t o be w o r t h w h i l e approach t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . A l l u s i o n s have been made t o p r e v i o u s work on p o l i t i c a l communication i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e b a c k g r o u n d t o t h i s p i l o t s t u d y . These c i t a t i o n s , however, do n o t d e m o n s t r a t e s u f f i c i e n t l y t h e r e a s o n s f o r s e l e c t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t o r i t s u l t i m a t e r e l e -vance t o t h e f i e l d o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o d i g r e s s , a t c o n s i d e r a b l e l e n g t h , t o c o n s i d e r t h e E a s t o n i a n model, i t s d i f f i c u l t i e s , and t h e way i n w h i c h t h e s e problems can perhaps be t r e a t e d . From t h i s d i s c u s s i o n s h o u l d emerge the r e a s o n s f o r t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n o f t h e t h e s i s , and t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s . CHAPTER I I INFORMATION AS A KEY FACTOR IN THE OPERATION OF INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMS: THE MODEL The major advantages o f a system view o f p o l i t i c s ( a t any l e v e l ) i n c l u d e i t s a b i l i t y t o d i s p l a y t h e 'whole p i c t u r e ' ; i t s p r o v i s i o n s f o r t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o f narrower-gauge c o n c e p t s i n t o t h e whole; and i t s c a p a b i l i t y t o d i r e c t t h e r e s e a r c h e r (as any u s e f u l model w i l l do) i n t o new a r e a s f o r i n q u i r y . A t the c o n c e p t u a l l e v e l , t h e systems model o f D a v i d E a s t o n 1 i s e x t r e m e l y w o r t h w h i l e by t h e s e c r i t e r i a . The major p r o b l e m i n u s i n g t h e model, however, l i e s i n o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n . A t the c o n c e p t u a l l e v e l , t h e E a s t o n i a n framework i s w e l l s u i t e d t o d e a l w i t h "contemporary h i s t o r i c a l d evelopments, as H a n r i e d e r d e s c r i b e s them: The c o l d - w a r c o n f l i c t and t h e a t t e n d i n g m o b i l i z a t i o n o f m i l i t a r y , s o c i o e c o n o m i c , and p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s o u r c e s by t h e superpowers and t h e i r a l l i e s ; v e n t u r e s o f r e g i o n a l economic i n t e g r a t i o n ; t h e c h a n g i n g n a t u r e o f t h e n a t i o n -s t a t e ; the c l o s e c o n n e c t i o n between t h e c o n d i -t i o n s p r e v a i l i n g i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system and t h e attempts made by t h e new s t a t e s t o modernize and t o c o a l e s c e i n t o v i a b l e s o c i e t i e s - -t h e s e a r e j u s t a few examples o f how f o r e i g n and d o m e s t i c p o l i c y p r o j e c t s have become o v e r -l a p p i n g and perhaps e n t i r e l y i n s e p a r a b l e . 2 -•-See D a v i d E a s t o n , A Systems A n a l y s i s o f P o l i t i c a l L i f e (New York: W i l e y , 1965), e s p e c i a l l y . 2 Wolfram F. H a n r i e d e r , " I n t e r n a t i o n a l and Comparative P o l i t i c s : Toward a S y n t h e s i s ? " World P o l i t i c s , XX, 3 ( A p r i l , 1968), p. 480. ; 10 Systems a n a l y s i s , and p a r t i c u l a r l y E a s t o n ' s systems model, i s c a p a b l e o f a s s i s t i n g i n the a n a l y s i s o f t h e s e p r o b l e m s . The framework can t a k e a c c o u n t o f sub-systems, o v e r l a p p i n g member-s h i p s , d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s and t y p e s o f p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y , and new o p e r a t i n g s t y l e s o f a c t o r s . Thus, a t t h e c o n c e p t u a l l e v e l , E astonVs c l a i m t o a p p l i c a b i l i t y t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i -t i c s i s a v a l i d one. The a p p a r e n t o p e r a t i o n a l i n v a l i d i t y o f the c l a i m may w e l l a r i s e from h i s a s s u m p t i o n s , t o which we t u r n now. The Assumptions o f E a s t o n v s . C u r r e n t Views o f the I n t e r n a t i o n a l System E a s t o n p r o c e e d s from two r e l a t e d assumptions which a r e e m p i r i c a l l y q u e s t i o n a b l e a t t h i s s t a g e . The f i r s t i s t h a t a c o n t i n u o u s l y o p e r a t i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l (world) system e x i s t s . Second, he assumes t h a t t h e a c t o r s i n t h a t system have c o n t i n u -ous membership, even though t h e y m i g h t n o t , a t t i m e s , behave i n any o b s e r v a b l e way. 4 W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e f i r s t a s s u m p t i o n t h e r e i s some e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e w o r l d p o l i t i c a l system may o p e r a t e d i s c o n t i n u o u s l y o r a t l e a s t t h a t i t o f t e n may be s u s -pended i n v i r t u a l l i m b o . ^ T h i s makes p r o b l e m a t i c a l t h e E a s t o n , op. c i t . , p. 487 f f . 4 T h e a u t h o r i s i n d e b t e d t o P r o f e s s o r E a s t o n f o r c l a r i -f y i n g t h e assumptions on which t h e two d i f f e r i n g views o f t h e system a r e based. P e r s o n a l c o n v e r s a t i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C., May 19, 1968. 5 C h a r l e s A. M c C l e l l a n d , " D r i v i n g o u t t h e H o l l o w n e s s : The Reshaping o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Systems Theory" (Mimeo, U n i v e r -s i t y o f So u t h e r n C a l i f o r n i a , 1968), p. 21. 11 u t i l i t y o f assuming c o n t i n u i t y i n t h e w o r l d system, a l t h o u g h t h e subsystems (e.g. European Common Market) might w e l l be i n c o n t i n u o u s o p e r a t i o n . The s e c o n d a s s u m p t i o n r e s t s on t h e b e l i e f t h a t t h e system's members can be i d e n t i f i e d , and f u r t h e r , t h a t t h e i r p r e s e n c e i s a ' c o n s t a n t ' i n system o p e r a t i o n . I t i s l e g i t i -mate f i r s t t o ask t h e q u e s t i o n , who a r e t h e a c t o r s - - a l l o f t h e a c t o r s ? The a n a l y t i c p o s i t i o n t a k e n by t h i s a u t h o r was s t a t e d e a r l i e r : t h e c h i e f a c t o r s a r e t h e agents o f n a t i o n -s t a t e s , t h a t i s , o f f i c i a l s o f n a t i o n - s t a t e governments who make a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n s o f v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s on b e h a l f o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e p o l i t i e s . These a c t o r s a t times may make such a l l o c a t i o n s - - i n t h e name o f t h e i r n a t i o n s t a t e s o r i n d i v i d u a l l y — on b e h a l f o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. T h i s p o s i t i o n — t a k e n on the b a s i s o f e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h n e e d s — m a k e s u n t e n a b l e E a s t o n ' s assumption t h a t t h e r e e x i s t a c t o r s who occupy an ' a u t h o r i t y ' r o l e w i t h i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. E a s t o n ' s p o s i t i o n c e n t r e s on t h e n o t i o n t h a t i n t e r n a -t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l and f i n a n c i a l e l i t e s e x i s t as de f a c t o . - , . . ' 6 a u t h o r i t i e s . ' E a s t o n comments, A l t h o u g h most c u r r e n t t h e o r i e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s s y s t e m a t i c a l l y t a k e i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e p r e s e n c e o f n a t i o n a l u n i t s , r e g i o n a l g r o u p s , and f u n c t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s as subsystems, t h e y t e n d t o i g n o r e t h e development o f new k i n d s o f E a s t o n , A Systems A n a l y s i s . . ., pp. 484-488, and P e r s o n a l c o n v e r s a t i o n , o p . c i t . ) 12 a c t o r s . W i t h t h e s h r i n k i n g o f t h e w o r l d , i n d i v i d u a l members o f t h e s e component subsystems have become i n c r e a s i n g l y o r i e n t e d t o w o r l d a f f a i r s ; t h e y r e s p o n d t o w o r l d e v e n t s and t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i r r e s p o n s e s h e l p s t o c o n d i t i o n t h e way i n which t h e s u b - u n i t o f which t h e y a r e a p a r t p a r t i c i p a t e s i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. We would be f o r c e d t o n e g l e c t an i m p o r t a n t k i n d o f a c t o r i f we d i d n o t a c c e p t such members i n d i v i d u a l l y c o n -s i d e r e d . . .7 I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o q u a r r e l w i t h t h i s p o s i t i o n i n i t s g e n e r a l s e n s e , b u t t o s u g g e s t t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s p r o m i n e n t i n each sub-u n i t w i l l t e n d t o be t h e ' a u t h o r i t i e s ' i s t o m i s s o t h e r b e h a v i o r s which t h e s e i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l u n d e r t a k e . E a s t o n has i n mind, f o r example, U n i t e d S t a t e s S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e Rusk, S o v i e t F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r Gromyko, and o t h e r f o r e i g n a f f a i r s spokesmen f o r the major powers as t h e p o l i t i c a l e l i t e s — a n d t h u s , ' a u t h o r i t i e s ' — o f t h e w o r l d s o c i e t y . F o l l o w i n g from t h i s p o s i t i o n , when one l o o k s a t t h e w o r l d p o l i t i c a l system, one i n c l u d e s a l l n a t i o n s t a t e s and t h e i r spokesmen as members, even though many o f t h e members may be on the p e r i p h e r y , h a v i n g l i t t l e t o do w i t h t h e system. Membership i n t h e system, even though n o t made m a n i f e s t by o v e r t a c t i o n s , s t i l l E a s t o n , A Systems A n a l y s i s . . . , p. 486. E a s t o n C o n v e r s a t i o n , l o c . c i t . 13 embraces a s e t o f e x p e c t a t i o n s and r o l e s , E a s t o n a r g u e s , and 9 thus i s a c o n c e p t which cannot be e x c l u d e d from a n a l y s i s . The l o g i c o f t h i s argument i s p e r s u a s i v e , b u t e m p i r i c a l l y , t h e r e s e a r c h e r remains w i t h th e p r o b l e m o f what d a t a t o g a t h e r and how t o compensate f o r u n a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n . There a r e two b a s i c p o s i t i o n s , t h e n , from which the r e s e a r c h e r can p r o c e e d i n t h i s m a t t e r . One, f o l l o w i n g E a s t o n , assumes c o n t i n u i t y o f the system and i t s membership; i n v e s t i -g a t i o n u n d e r t a k e n on t h i s b a s i s would o v e r l o o k some o f t h e e m p i r i c a l q u e s t i o n s which seem t o be b a s i c . The s econd p o s i -t i o n assumes no c o n t i n u i t y , p o s i t i n g i n s t e a d a s p o r a d i c system o f b e h a v i o r o n l y , and l e a d i n g t o more i n t e r e s t i n g avenues o f e x p l o r a t i o n . The s econd p o s i t i o n makes p o s s i b l e such q u e s t i o n s as d e f i n i t i o n o f membership, i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a c t o r s , c l a r i f i c a t i o n o f system o p e r a t i o n , and so f o r t h — a l l on a s t e p - b y - s t e p , e m p i r i c a l b a s i s . I n o t h e r words, i t i s c ontended h e r e t h a t o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n 'up' toward t h e system t h e o r y i s more i m m e d i a t e l y u s e f u l — a n d perhaps u l t i m a t e l y more v a l i d - - t h a n o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n 'down.' A model must be j u d g e d by i t s u t i l i t y ; t h e v a l u e o f t h e second p o s i t i o n seems a t t h i s s t a g e t o be g r e a t e r . 9 I b i d . 14 The Model and i t s A d a p t a t i o n s The a d a p t a t i o n s t o be made t o E a s t o n ' s model, t h e n , f o l l o w from t h e second p o s i t i o n . I n s t e a d o f assuming member-s h i p and c o n t i n u o u s r o l e o c c u p a t i o n by s p e c i f i c a c t o r s , a l l a c t o r s w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d s e p a r a t e from t h e system, as o c c u -p a n t s o f a membership en v i r o n m e n t . The 'system' i t s e l f w i l l c o n s t i t u t e o n l y t h e i n t e r - n a t i o n and p o l i t i c a l b e h a v i o r s o f t h o s e members. T h i s a d a p t a t i o n u t i l i z e s a v a i l a b l e d a t a w i t h g r e a t e r e a s e , and p o i n t s t o some n e g l e c t e d a r e a s o f i n q u i r y , t o be e l u c i d a t e d below. The s e p a r a t i o n o f b e h a v i o r - - a dynamic q u a l i t y — f r o m a t t r i b u t e s — a more s t a t i c c o n c e p t — a l l o w s t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o a c c o m p l i s h a number o f u s e f u l o p e r a t i o n s . F i r s t , i t c l a r i f i e s t h e n a t u r e o f e m p i r i c a l d a t a by g i v i n g t o t h e a n a l y t i c t a s k a more t h e o r e t i c a l b a s e. Second, t h e s e p a r a t i o n o f b e h a v i o r from a t t r i b u t e s a l l o w s t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o d e t e r m i n e more e a s i l y what i n t e r n a t i o n a l r o l e s a c t o r s w i l l p l a y , under what c i r c u m -s t a n c e s t h e y w i l l be p l a y e d , and what t y p e s o f a c t o r s w i l l t e n d t o p l a y them. T h i s f u n c t i o n i n t u r n a l l o w s t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r t o c o n s i d e r more c l e a r l y t h e d i f f i c u l t problems o f membership, system c o n t i n u i t y , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l i n f l u e n c e s . Perhaps most i m p o r t a n t i s t h e a b i l i t y o f such a scheme t o a l l o w t h e a n a l y s i s o f m u l t i p l e r o l e p l a y i n g by one a c t o r , f o l l o w i n g Rosenau's 10 ' i s s u e a r e a ' c o n c e p t . The E a s t o n i a n method, whxle n o t •^The a u t h o r was s t i m u l a t e d and h e l p e d i n t h i s r e g a r d by James N. Rosenau, " P r e - T h e o r i e s and T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " i n Approaches t o Comparative and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , ed. R. B a r r y F a r r e l l , ( E v a n s t o n : N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y Press,1966) pp. 27-92, and by C h a r l e s M c C l e l l a n d , l o c . c i t . 15 s t r i c t l y c o n f i n i n g t h e r e s e a r c h e r , t ends t o produce a 'one-a c t o r - o n e r o l e ' view o f s y s t e m i c a c t o r s and thus might t e n d t o m i s l e a d . O t h e r advantages t o t h e s e p a r a t i o n o f members and system i n c l u d e a c l e a r e r view o f i n t e r - s y s t e m i n t e r a c t i o n ( t h a t i s , t h e i m p a c t - - f o r example--of t h e economic w o r l d system on t h e p o l i t i c a l w o r l d system: e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s ) , e a sy i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f system change, and e a s i e r i d e n t i f i c a -t i o n o f t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n l e v e l s o f a c t o r s . The 'members' o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system ( u s u a l l y n a t i o n s t a t e s ) a r e t h e o n l y c o n t i n u o u s l y e x i s t i n g e n t i t i e s , whose a t t r i b u t e s a r e r e l a t i v e l y c o n s t a n t and sub-s t a n t i v e . Such a t t r i b u t e s i n c l u d e m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y , p o p u l a t i o n s i z e and t y p e , d o m e s t i c g o v e r n m e n t a l s t a b i l i t y , d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l i d e o l o g i e s , v a l u e systems, and so f o r t h . These a t t r i b u t e s can be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h b e h a v i o r a l c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s , b u t t h e y s h o u l d n o t be c o n f u s e d w i t h system b e h a v i o r . The a t t r i b u t e s o f a l l n a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g t h e i s s u e - a r e a r e l a t i o n s h i p s and h i e r a r c h i e s between n a t i o n s , a r e a n a l y z e d as p a r t o f t h e membership environment. Only when a n a t i o n seeks t o change t h e s e a t t r i b u t e s , o r when some e x t e r n a l i n f l u e n c e b r i n g s about change, does t h e a c t i o n become a dynamic b e h a v i o r which may o r may n o t have i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e o p e r a t i o n o f the system. 16 The s e p a r a t i o n o f membership en v i r o n m e n t from system i s th e o n l y major a d j u s t m e n t r e q u i r e d t o make E a s t o n ' s model u s e f u l and a p p l i c a b l e t o the a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a -t i o n s . The a d j u s t m e n t , however, c a r r i e s a number o f i m p l i c a -t i o n s f o r t h e use o f t h e model, and opens new a r e a s f o r i n v e s t i g a t i o n . I t i s i n one o f t h e s e a r e a s t h a t r e s e a r c h - -r e p o r t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s — h a s been s t a r t e d . The a c t u a l shape o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system, as F i g u r e 1 i n d i c a t e s , i s l i t t l e d i f f e r e n t from E a s t o n . H The o n l y a l t e r a t i o n s i n v o l v e t h e a d d i t i o n o f e n t r y p o r t a l s f o r each r o l e b e h a v i o r emanating from t h e membership environment. In o t h e r words, because t h e system i s seen as b e i n g empty o f membership, ' i n p u t s ' (demands, s u p p o r t s ) a r e n o t t h e o n l y a c t i o n s t o e n t e r t h e system. O t h e r b e h a v i o r s t o e n t e r w i l l be g a t e k e e p i n g , a s s o c i a t e d a l l o c a t i n g , and a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i n g actions.-'- 2 x l C f . E a s t o n ' s diagram i n A Systems A n a l y s i s . . ., p.30. -^Examples o f t h e s e b a s i c r o l e f u n c t i o n s a r e as f o l l o w s : Demand - A p l e a by a n o n - a l i g n e d s t a t e t o s t o p a major power from a s s i s t i n g l o c a l i n s u r g e n t s . O t h e r o c c u p a n t s o f t h e membership environment must p r o c e s s t h i s demand i n some way. S u p p o r t - A s e r i o u s o f f e r t o n e g o t i a t e an i s s u e s t r e s s i n g t h e system. The U n i t e d S t a t e s f o r i n s t a n c e , might make such an o f f e r t o t h e S o v i e t Union w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e B e r l i n problem. G a t e k e e p i n g - A r t i c u l a t i o n and placement o f a 'want' i n t o t h e system., thus c o n v e r t i n g i t i n t o a 'demand' . A m i d d l e power might demand t h a t t h e system p r e v e n t t h e e s c a l a t i o n o f a b o r d e r war, i n r e s p o n s e t o p l e a s from t h e c o m b a t t a n t s . A s s o c i a t e d A l l o c a t i n g - The e f f o r t s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and the S o v i e t Union t o c o o l the head o f t h e 1967 A r a b - I s r a e l i war were a l l o c a t i v e , b u t o n l y i n an a s s o c i a t e d way, s i n c e t h e attempts were n o t a u t h o r i t a t i v e , i . e . , s u c c e s s f u l and f i n a l . A u t h o r i t a t i v e A l l o c a t i n g - U n i t e d S t a t e s S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e D u l l e s ' a c t i o n s d u r i n g ' t h e l a t t e r s t a g e s o f t h e 1956 Suez T h e P o l i t i c a l S y s t e m I rules' 3 a(foe»*i--• D. i KEY A Membership environment, composed o f a c t o r s ( N a t i o n s t a t e s ) i n news l i n k a g e s B System s u p p o r t p o r t a l C System want P o r t a l D System i n f o r m a t i o n P o r t a l E System g a t e k e e p i n g - r o l e P o r t a l F A l l o c a t i o n attempt P o r t a l G A u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n P o r t a l H I n p u t - I n f o r m a t i o n and P r o c e s s -I n f o r m a t i o n Source J A u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n o r ' f i n a l o u t p u t ' s o u r c e F i g u r e 1. The I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c a l System. 18 The'output' s i d e o f t h e system, w h i l e s i m i l a r t o t h e o r i g i n a l E a s t o n i a n model, i s c o n c e p t u a l i z e d i n a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t way. Output, as u s e d h e r e , need n o t be f i n a l . A l l o c a t i o n s o f v a l u e s which a r e e i t h e r a s s o c i a t e d o r a u t h o r i -t a t i v e may emerge from the 'output s i d e ' o f t h e system because no u t i l i t y a c c r u e s i n t h e a d a p t e d model from d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between o u t p u t s and o u t c o m e s . x ^ Two o t h e r d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e shape o f E a s t o n ' s system and t h e model p r o p o s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s can be seen i n F i g u r e 1. These a r e an e n t r y and an e x i t p o r t a l f o r i n f o r -m a t i o n about i n i t i a t i v e b e h a v i o r . U s u a l l y , t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l c o n c e r n a l t e r a t i o n s o r i n t e n d e d changes i n t h e membership environment. The r e a s o n f o r f e e d i n g such i n f o r m a t i o n t h r o u g h t h e system i s s i m p l y one o f c o n v e n i e n c e : i t makes changes i n membership environment easy t o i d e n t i f y . F o r example, t h e s i z e o f m i l i t a r y s e r v i c e o f s t a t e X i s an a t t r i b u t e o f X, and forms p a r t o f t h e membership environment. The e x i s t e n c e o f the m i l i t a r y s e r v i c e i s n o t a b e h a v i o r , as s u c h . However, s h o u l d X seek t o i n c r e a s e i t s m i l i t a r y s t r e n g t h , t h e i n c r e a s e becomes a b e h a v i o r , and f i r s t e n t e r s t h e system as i n f o r m a t i o n . C r i s i s . By s e r v i n g n o t i c e t h a t no U n i t e d S t a t e s s u p p o r t would be g i v e n t o B r i t a i n and F r a n c e — o n an a u t h o r i t a t i v e b a s i s — D u l l e s s c u t t l e d t h e A n g l o - F r e n c h war e f f o r t . A second example o f a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i n g might be t h e 1963-64 Cyprus problem. Members o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s c o l l e c t i v e l y made an a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n t o p r e v e n t armed c o n f l i c t between Greece and Turkey. The d i s p u t e remained, b u t t h e demand on t h e system t o p r e v e n t an o u t b r e a k o f s e r i o u s v i o l e n c e was met s u c c e s s f u l l y by t h e p a r t i c i p a t i n g s t a t e s . See E a s t o n , op. c i t . , p. 351, f o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s d i s t i n c t i o n . Simply s t a t e d , ' o u t p u t s ' a r e s p e c i f i c a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n s o f v a l u e s , w h i l e 'outcomes' a r e t h e l o n g e r - t e r m I f t h e r e i s a t l e a s t t a c i t agreement among a c t o r s t o a l l o w X t o do so, no a c t i o n w i l l o c c u r on t h i s m a t t e r w i t h i n t h e system. I t i s i n f o r m a t i o n o n l y , b u t i t may be o f i n t e r e s t t o an a n a l y s t . Because o f t h e d e c i s i o n t o s e p a r a t e t h e membership en-v i r o n m e n t from t h e b e h a v i o r a l system, t h e feedback l o o p , as c o n c e p t u a l i z e d i n t h e a d a p t e d model, has been changed c o n s i d e r a b l y from t h a t shown by E a s t o n . E n t e r i n g i n t o t h e l o o p from the p o l i t i c a l s ystem a r e b o t h o u t p u t s and ' u n p r o c e s s e d ' i n f o r -m a t i o n . Once t h e l o o p f e e d s i n t o t h e membership e n v i r o n m e n t , i t d i s a p p e a r s as a feedback l o o p . What emerges from t h e membership environment and t r a v e l s i n t o t h e s y s t e m i s a new sequence o f b e h a v i o r s ( i n p u t s , g a t e k e e p i n g , a l l o c a t i o n s , e t c . ) I t i s p o s s i b l e , and a t t i m e s l i k e l y , t h a t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m th e f e e d b a c k l o o p w i l l e x p i r e once i t r e a c h e s t h e membership environment. Such would be t h e case i n t h e example above, where X's i n c r e a s e i n m i l i t a r y s t r e n g t h was n o t opposed. We t u r n now t o t h e dynamics o f t h e system's o p e r a t i o n . A New F e a t u r e o f t h e Model: L i n k a g e s i n t h e Membership Environment and t h e i r R e l e v a n c e As the r e a d e r a l r e a d y may have s u r m i s e d , t h e model p o s i t e d h e r e i s a b a s i c s t i m u l u s - r e s p o n s e scheme, w i t h r e s u l t s — i n a s e n s e , t h e r e p e r c u s s i o n s — o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n p r o c e s s . 20 i n f o r m a t i o n — t h e s u b j e c t o f o u r i n q u i r y - - a c t i n g as t h e s t i m u l u s . M a t t e r s which engage t h e system, u n l i k e t h e E a s t o n i a n c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n , a r e seen t o i n v o l v e two o r more c y c l e s ; t h e f i r s t o c c u r s when t h e i n f o r m a t i o n e n t e r s t h e system, and t h e s econd t a k e s p l a c e once t h e i n f o r m a t i o n has ' f e d back' i n t o t h e membership en v i r o n m e n t and s t i m u l a t e d some (or a l l ) a c t o r s i n t o b e h a v i n g w i t h i n t h e system. T h i s b e h a v i o r may be s u p p o r t i v e , demanding, g a t e k e e p i n g , a g g r e g a -t i v e , o r a l l o c a t i v e , as i n d i c a t e d above. Which a c t o r s r e s p o n d t o which s t i m u l i , and how t h e y r e s p o n d , w i l l be a f u n c t i o n o f t h e a c t o r s ' i n t e r e s t s . T h i s n o t i o n i s n o t d i s s i m i l a r t o James Rosenau's view o f a c t i v i t y a c c o r d i n g t o i s s u e a r e a ; i n f a c t , t h e i s s u e a r e a c o n c e p t i s an i n t e g r a l — a l t h o u g h s e c o n d a r y — p a r t o f t h e s t i m u l u s - r e s p o n s e p a t t e r n s w i t h i n t h e membership en v i r o n m e n t . As Rosenau s t a t e s , . . . an i s s u e a r e a i s c o n c e i v e d t o c o n s i s t o f (1) a c l u s t e r o f v a l u e s , t h e a l l o c a t i o n o r p o t e n t i a l a l l o c a t i o n o f w hich (2) l e a d s t h e a f f e c t e d o r p o t e n t i a l l y a f f e c t e d a c t o r s t o d i f f e r so g r e a t l y o v e r (a) t h e way i n w h i c h the v a l u e s s h o u l d be a l l o c a t e d o r (b) t h e h o r i z o n t a l l e v e l s a t w hich the a l l o c a t i o n s s h o u l d be a u t h o r i z e d t h a t (3) t h e y engage i n d i s t i n c t i v e b e h a v i o r d e s i g n e d t o m o b i l i z e s u p p o r t f o r t h e a t t a i n m e n t o f t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e s . 1 4 x^James N. Rosenau, " P r e - T h e o r i e s and T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " i n Approaches t o C o m p a r i t i v e and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , ed. R. B a r r y F a r r e l , ( E v a n s t o n : N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966) , pp. 27-81. I t a l i c s i n t h e o r i g i n a l . 21 The i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h g e n e r a t e s t h e s e r e s p o n s e s may have a v i r t u a l l y l i m i t l e s s number o f p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s , some o f w h i c h w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d s h o r t l y . The main p o i n t i s t h a t d i f f e r e n t i s s u e c o n t e n t s , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e a d a p t e d model, w i l l s t i m u l a t e d i f f e r e n t a c t o r s t o behave i n d i f f e r e n t ways w i t h i n t h e system. A l t h o u g h D a v i d E a s t o n does n o t i n c l u d e w i t h i n h i s model the n o t i o n o f membership en v i r o n m e n t o r news l i n k a g e s ( t o be d i s c u s s e d b e l o w ) , he does d e a l i n a somewhat s i m i l a r manner t o t h a t o f t h e a d a p t e d model w i t h t h e i s s u e a r e a concept.- 1- 6 He s t a t e s , f o r example, t h a t demands e n t e r i n g t h e system c a n n o t be e q u i v a l e n t u n i t s , 1 7 and adds, "where i t i s v o i c e d , who a r t i c u l a t e s i t , who h e a r s i t , how w i d e l y i t i s d i f f u s e d a r e a l l m a t t e r s o f s i g n a l i m p o r t a n c e f o r t h e f u t u r e s t a g e s o f t h e demand's c a r e e r . " 1 8 T h i s a s s e r t i o n , which r e l a t e s d i r e c t l y t o t h e main f o c u s o f t h i s s t u d y , can be a p p l i e d n o t o n l y t o demands, b u t a l s o t o t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e system as a whole. I s s u e i n t e r e s t i s n o t t h e o n l y d e t e r m i n a n t o f a n a t i o n ' s d e c i s i o n t o a c t w i t h i n t h e system. Most i m p o r t a n t l^Two s o c i o l o g i s t s have r e c e n t l y completed a s t u d y which i n d i c a t e s t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f a s u b s t a n t i v e base f o r t h e n o t i o n o f i s s u e a r e a d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . See Theodore Caplow and K u r t F i n s t e r b u s c h , "France and O t h e r C o u n t r i e s : A Study o f I n t e r -n a t i o n a l I n t e r a c t i o n , " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , X I I , 1 (March, 1968), pp. 1-15. 1 6 S e e h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f p r e s s u r e groups i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h h i s c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e f e e d back p a t t e r n s , op. c i t . , pp. 372-376. 1 7 I b i d . , p. 67. 1 8 I b i d . , p. 81. 22 i s t h e p r e s e n c e o f i n t e r p r e t e d p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n , o u r main f o c u s . T h a t i s s u e i n t e r e s t and p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n a r e r e l a t e d i s o b v i o u s : i n t e r e s t w i l l i n f l u e n c e t h e l e v e l o f i n f o r m a t i o n , and v i c e v e r s a . P o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s p o s i t e d as t h e c r u c i a l v a r i a b l e , however, because w i t h o u t i t no n a t i o n would have any b a s i s on which t o a c t , r e g a r d l e s s o f i n t e r e s t . We devote a t t e n t i o n now t o t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n d i s p e r s i o n p r o c e s s . As i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e system f e e d s back, i t i s f i l -t e r e d i n and t h r o u g h th e membership e n v i r o n m e n t . T h i s f i l t e r -i n g p r o c e s s i s a c c o m p l i s h e d by i n d i v i d u a l n a t i o n s t a t e s , s t r u c t u r e d w i t h i n t h e e nvironment i n a s e r i e s o f h i e r a r c h i c a l l i n k a g e s . A t the 'top' o f t h e h i e r a r c h i e s a r e n a t i o n s whose i n f o r m a t i o n - g a t h e r i n g c a p a b i l i t i e s a r e g r e a t e s t . These s t a t e s , i n t u r n , a r e l i n k e d t o a l l i e s w i t h whom t h e y s h a r e i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e system, and t h e a l l i e s i n t u r n a r e l i n k e d t o o t h e r a l l i e s , and so f o r t h . These l i n k a g e s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t w i t h r e s p e c t t o the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n p l a c e d on f e e d back s t i m u l i b e c a u s e — a s we n o t e d e a r l i e r — i t w i l l be on t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s t h a t e x i s t e n c e , i n t e n s i t y , d u r a t i o n and r o l e - t y p e o f r e s p o n s e s d e p e n d . 1 ^ The l i n k a g e h i e r a r c h i e s a r e a s s y m e t r i c , i n t h a t v i r t u a l l y no n a t i o n s t a t e s depend s o l e l y on any s i n g l e s o u r c e f o r i n f o r m a t i o n from the feedback l o o p . Some n a t i o n s may i y l t i s i n t h i s a r e a o f t h e system's o p e r a t i o n t h a t such s t u d i e s as Brams' would f i t . H i s c o n c e r n was n o t s p e c i f i c a l l y t o answer t h e q u e s t i o n o f i n t e r p r e t e d news l i n k a g e s b u t t h e work c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d as a s t a r t toward d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f such p a t t e r n s . 23 7 0 xn f a c t be c o m p l e t e l y s e l f - r e l i a n t . The a d a p t e d model p r e s e n t e d h e r e a t t a c h e s g r e a t s i g -n i f i c a n c e t o news l i n k a g e s w i t h i n t h e membership e n v i r o n m e n t f o r r e a s o n s b a s e d i n c y b e r n e t i c t h e o r y . From c y b e r n e t i c s — t o w hich the E a s t o n framework and t h e m o d i f i e d schema e x p r e s s l y have an a f f i n i t y — c o m e s t h e c o n c e p t o f e n t r o p y and n e g a t i v e e n t r o p y . E n t r o p y d e a l s w i t h t h e g r a d u a l decay o f t h e s y s t e m i n t o u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d c o n s t i t u e n t p a r t s ; n e g a t i v e e n t r o p y , i n e s s e n c e , i s r e q u i r e d t o keep system components d i f f e r e n -21 t i a t e d and o p e r a t i n g . T h i s n o t i o n w x l l n o t be d e v e l o p e d h e r e , b u t i t s i m p o r t a n c e f o r t h e a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l systems can be seen, a t l e a s t , a t t h e i n t u i t i v e l e v e l . E a s t o n comments, . . . i n a l l b u t t h e s i m p l e s t p o l i t i c a l s ystems, i n t r a s y s t e m s t r u c t u r a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i s such t h a t t h e r e a r e a number o f k i n d s o f r o l e s f u n c t i o n a l l y d i s t i n c t from t h a t o f g e n e r a l member o f t h e system.22 Compared w i t h most modern d o m e s t i c p o l i t i e s , t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system i s a r e l a t i v e l y ' s i m p l e ' one, whose l e v e l and i n t e n s i t y o f f u n c t i o n i n g must be b a s e d , i n the f i n a l a n a l y s i s , on l e v e l and i n t e n s i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e system. In a d o m e s t i c T h i s s t a t e m e n t may h o l d o n l y i n p r i n c i p l e . I n f a c t , a l m o s t a l l n a t i o n s have a t l e a s t i n f o r m a l agreements t o s h a r e a s p e c t s o f t h e i r i n t e l l i g e n c e , d i p l o m a t i c i n f o r m a t i o n , and so f o r t h . 21 See, f o r example, James G. M x l l e r , " L i v i n g Systems: B a s i c C o n c e p t s , " B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e , X, 3 ( J u l y 1965). E a s t o n , op. c i t . , p. 86. 24 p o l i t y (which does d i s p l a y a high l e v e l of intrasystem s t r u c -ture) d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n can be seen to stem, i n p a r t , from the need f o r the c o n t r o l and s e l e c t i o n of information. As an economist-cybernetician comments, . . . i n the present day information can be m u l t i p l i e d e n d l e s s l y - - t h e r e i s no end to i t ... . The greater amount of information we have, the more uncertain we are as to which course of a c t i o n to take.23 Ul t i m a t e l y the i n v e s t i g a t i o n of i n t e r p r e t e d p o l i t i c a l i n f o r -mation as a stimulus to system a c t i o n may lead f r u i t f u l l y i n t o questions of system s t r u c t u r e . 2 4 E x p l i c a t i o n of other aspects of the model would be extraneous to the purposes of d i s c u s s i n g i t . However, some examples may i n d i c a t e how a n a l y s i s under the adapted scheme might proceed. Examples of the Model i n Operation We have stated that a t t r i b u t e s of the members and of t h e i r normal r e l a t i o n s h i p s do not comprise p a r t of the system, but i n s t e a d are part of the membership environment. However, changes i n those a t t r i b u t e s do become systemic inputs. For example, i f nations X and Y form a new defense a l l i a n c e , t h i s a c t i o n c o n s t i t u t e s an input i n t o the system. I f the agreement G.F. McGuigan, "The Entrepreneur and the Climate of Canadian E n t e r p r i s e : The S o c i a l i z a t i o n of the I n t e l l e c t u a l E n t e r p r i s e " (Unpublished manuscript, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, August 31, 1967), p. 65. 2 4 W i t h the exception of system norms. See Appendix A. 25 v i o l a t e s t h e c u r r e n t norms and r u l e s o f t h e system (see A p pendix A) t h e i n p u t i s a demand on t h e system, and o t h e r s i n t h e membership env i r o n m e n t w i l l t a k e a c t i o n s d e s i g n e d t o d i s s u a d e X and Y from t h e i r p o s i t i o n . Thus, A and B may e n t e r t h e system as g a t e k e e p e r s by t r y i n g t o c o n v i n c e X and Y t h a t no need e x i s t s f o r t h e a l l i a n c e , t h u s a t t e m p t i n g t o k i l l t h e demand b e f o r e i t p e n e t r a t e s t h e system f u r t h e r . Meanwhile, n a t i o n s C and D e n t e r t h e system as a s s o c i a t e d a u t h o r i t i e s , a c t i n g t o c o e r c e X and Y i n t o abandonment o r m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e i r a c t i o n t h r o u g h t h e use o f t h r e a t s o r p r o m i s e s . The o u t p u t o f t h i s i n t e r a c t i o n p r o c e s s t r a v e l s a l o n g t h e feedback l o o p t o t h e membership e n v i r o n m e n t . F u r t h e r a c t i o n by o t h e r a c t o r s (or t h e same ones) w i l l depend on t h e r e s u l t o f t h e g a t e k e e p i n g and a l l o c a t i v e a t t e m p t s . N a t i o n N may, t o use a n o t h e r example, o f f e r p e a c e k e e p i n g f o r c e s , t h u s making an i n p u t o f s u p p o r t i n t o t h e system. A g a i n , whether N's p r o p o s a l i s p r o c e s s e d by o t h e r o c c u p a n t s o f t h e membership environment w i l l depend on t h e members' l e v e l o f i n f o r m a t i o n and t h e i r p e r c e p t i o n s o f m o t i v e and n e c e s s i t y t o p r o c e e d w i t h t h e p r o p o s a l . A t h i r d t y p e o f i n p u t may n o t s t i m u l a t e any sequence o f a c t i o n s . F o r i n s t a n c e , n a t i o n M may s u p p o r t a f a c t i o n w i t h i n an u n s t a b l e d o m e s t i c p o l i t y , b u t t h e a c t i o n , a f t e r t r a v e l l i n g t h r o u g h t h e feedback l o o p , may e x o r c i z e no n a t i o n s t r o n g l y enough t o s t i m u l a t e r e a c t i o n . M 'wins' i n a s e n s e , by de-f a u l t . W ith r e s p e c t t o t h i s t y p e o f a c t i o n , E a s t o n ' s con-c e p t u a l i z a t i o n i s s i m i l a r , b u t d i f f e r s i n f u n c t i o n o f h i s 26 a u t h o r i t y o c c u p a n t assumption. He s t a t e s , U n c o n t e s t e d demands . . . advance d i r e c t l y t o t h e d e c i s i o n c e n t e r s i n t h e system w i t h o u t the i n t e r v e n t i o n o f any r e d u c t i o n mechanisms.25 The a dapted model s u g g e s t s t h a t because t h e d e c i s i o n c e n t e r i s n o t n o r m a l l y o c c u p i e d , i n a c t i o n o f a l l o t h e r o c c u p a n t s o f t h e membership environment (who g i v e t h e a c t i o n a t l e a s t t a c i t a p p r o v a l ) r e s u l t s i n no r e d u c t i o n o r change o f any k i n d . The a c t i o n i s i n f o r m a t i o n o n l y . Summary The f o r e g o i n g examples, and t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e adapted model, do n o t p r o v i d e a d e t a i l e d view o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l system o p e r a t i o n . The c o n t e n t s o f t h i s c h a p t e r do, however, i n d i c a t e t h e p o s s i b l e u t i l i t y o f t h e systems view o f i n t e r -n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . F u r t h e r — a s s t a t e d a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h i s d i s c u s s i o n — t h i s c h a p t e r may i n d i c a t e t o t h e r e a d e r i n a way which t h e e a r l i e r c i t a t i o n s d i d n o t t h e u l t i m a t e r e l e v a n c e which t h e r e s e a r c h e r b e l i e v e s h i s p r o j e c t m i g h t have t o i n -c r e a s i n g knowledge about i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . To summarize, t h e s c h o l a r s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s f a c e a t t h e p r e s e n t time a new r e a l i z a t i o n o f t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e i r s u b j e c t . T h i s r e a l i z a t i o n has come about t h r o u g h c o n t i n u i n g e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s which p u t i n t o q u e s t i o n E a s t o n , op. c i t . , p. 135. 27 t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e ' i n t e r n a t i o n a l system' f u n c t i o n s c o n t i n u o u s l y , and t h e assump t i o n t h a t any g i v e n a c t o r w i l l behave u n i f o r m l y on a l l m a t t e r s . I n s t e a d , a c t o r s t e n d t o d i s p l a y i n t e r e s t s and b e h a v i o r s a c c o r d i n g t o i s s u e , and t h e r e f o r e a n a l y s i s may have t o be approached i n t h i s l i g h t . We have seen t h a t t h e systems approach i s c a p a b l e o f d i s -p l a y i n g t h e ' b i g p i c t u r e ' o f system o p e r a t i o n a t t h e con -c e p t u a l l e v e l . We a l s o have seen t h a t some changes i n t h e E a s t o n model were r e q u i r e d f o r two r e a s o n s . The f i r s t i s t h e need s u c c e s s f u l l y t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e most a s p e c t s o f t h e model. The second r e a s o n i n v o l v e s t h e need t o r a t i o n a l i z e t h e model's assumptions i n terms o f new q u e s t i o n s about t h e system. The adapted model has a l s o i n d i c a t e d a new a r e a f o r r e s e a r c h : i n t e r - n a t i o n communication about system m a t t e r s may be a c r u c i a l , and o v e r l o o k e d , a s p e c t o f system o p e r a t i o n . I f methods can be fo u n d t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h i s m a t t e r s u c c e s s -f u l l y , t h e r e s e a r c h may w e l l produce a t l e a s t some e x p l a n a -t o r y and p r e d i c t i v e v a r i a b l e s f o r use i n t h e s t u d y o f o t h e r a s p e c t s o f system b e h a v i o r . We t u r n a t t e n t i o n now t o t h e q u e s t i o n , can a way be found t o i n v e s t i g a t e p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n as a f a c t o r i n system o p e r a t i o n ? CHAPTER I I I DATA SOURCES FOR RESEARCH INTO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS AND BEHAVIOR The c h i e f m e t h o d o l o g i c a l problem t o which t h i s t h e s i s addresses i t s e l f i s the p o s s i b i l i t y of i n v e s t i g a t i n g e m p i r i -c a l l y the p a t t e r n s o f communication between n a t i o n s . We a l s o w ish t o know i n a p r e l i m i n a r y way whether any r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between an a c t o r ' s i n f o r m a t i o n l e v e l and the i n t e r -n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r which t h a t a c t o r d i s p l a y s . C l e a r l y , t o t r a c e the channels and content of p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n f o r a l l a c t o r s and a l l times i s not p o s s i b l e . However, i t i s p o s s i b l e t o i n v e s t i g a t e a number of normally-used contemporary i n f o r m a t i o n channels, w i t h o u t r e g a r d f o r the moment t o content. Communications Data At the o f f i c i a l governmental l e v e l , f o u r main i n f o r -mation channels are a v a i l a b l e t o each n a t i o n s t a t e . These are: (1) r e p o r t s from i n t e l l i g e n c e o p e r a t i o n s ; (2) r e p o r t s from diplomats a s s i g n e d t o oth e r n a t i o n s t a t e s ; (3) i n f o r m a t i o n from r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s assigned t o i n t e r - g o v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s ; and (4) knowledge gained from d i r e c t v i s i t s t o other n a t i o n s by heads of s t a t e o r by h i g h government o f f i -c i a l s . Three of these channels are r e l a t i v e l y easy t o i n -v e s t i g a t e , although i t must be repeated, o n l y the channels, 29 and not the content of information d e r i v i n g from these phenomena can be determined. At the u n o f f i c i a l l e v e l , information can enter a nation through news media, personal or corporate m a i l , t o u r i s t s , business missions, and i n t e r n a t i o n a l non-governmental organizations. How much of the information from these un-o f f i c i a l sources enters a country's governmental system cannot e a s i l y be determined. Further, i t i s not p o s s i b l e e a s i l y to discover the relevance of such information to government d e c i s i o n makers, so there i s j u s t i f i c a t i o n at t h i s p o i n t f o r concentrating only on the o f f i c i a l channels. Data on i n t e l l i g e n c e o p e r a t i o n s — t h e most u s e f u l channel of i n f o r m a t i o n — i s beyond the researcher's grasp. Data on t h i s source would i n d i c a t e more than any other s i n g l e f a c t o r the extent of an actor's knowledge of the system. Equ a l l y important, the data could be used to draw a d e f i n i t i v e map of news linkages, to allow some p r e d i c t i o n of an actor's l i k e l y i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of news gained or shared. I t might be assumed that the existence of i n t e l l i g e n c e networks i s an "open sec r e t " among o f f i c i a l s of most governments, but the assumption does nothing to a i d the researcher who wishes access to t h i s information.-'- Perhaps a "well-connected" p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t could gain i n t e l l i g e n c e data, but h i s research would not be r e p l i c a b l e i n the usual sense of the term. xThe researcher has received one derogatory l e t t e r which substantiates t h i s rather obvious statement. 30 The three remaining channels of information can be i n v e s t i g a t e d e a s i l y , and may i n f a c t be s u f f i c i e n t . V i s i t s by heads of s t a t e s are w e l l documented i n newspapers. Memberships i n intergovernmental o r g a n i z a t i o n s — h e n c e f o r t h r e f e r r e d to as IGOs—are published r e g u l a r l y i n a number of sources, and thus c o n s t i t u t e usable and a c c e s s i b l e data. Diplomatic exchanges between nation s t a t e s — h e n c e f o r t h to be c a l l e d D E 3 — s i m i l a r l y are measurable, although not with the same ease as with IGOs and v i s i t s . At l e a s t f o r the present, then, channels of i n t e r -nation communication are researchable, and access to most of t h i s information i s r e l a t i v e l y easy. Because the i n v e s t i -gator wishes to r e l a t e the communication data to the actor's behavior, he i s equally i n t e r e s t e d i n sources of information about i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r c o u r s e . A great deal of t h i s information i s a v a i l a b l e , but the r e l i a b i l i t y , systematic b i a s , and general u s a b i l i t y of the b e h a v i o r a l data are at t h i s stage somewhat indeterminate. Regardless of source, the researcher faces the normal pro-blem of a b s t r a c t i n g what i s r e l e v a n t , and c a t e g o r i z i n g with v a l i d i t y what he has found. This problem i s n e i t h e r new nor unique: i t has concerned thoughtful h i s t o r i a n s since i t i q u i t y , and no s o l u t i o n i s apparent. Thus, a high an1 2See, f o r example, Raymond Aron, "Evidence and Inference i n H i s t o r y , " i n Evidence and Inference: The Hayden Colloquium of S c i e n t i f i c Concept and Method, ed. Daniel Lerner (Glencoe: The Free Press, 1958), pp. 19-47. 31 p o s s i b i l i t y o f e r r o r e x i s t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e d a t a : e r r o r a r i s i n g from b i a s e s and o m i s s i o n s i n s o u r c e m a t e r i a l , and e r r o r a r i s i n g from wrong judgements made about t h e d a t a . H i s t o r i c a l B e h a v i o r a l Data The two main t y p e s o f a v a i l a b l e b e h a v i o r a l d a t a a r e c u r r e n t m a t e r i a l s and h i s t o r i c a l documents. The l a t t e r t y p e i n c l u d e memoirs, p e r s o n a l documents, government r e c o r d s (once t h e y a r e r e l e a s e d ) and o t h e r t y p i c a l d i p l o m a t i c h i s -t o r i c a l s o u r c e s . These m a t e r i a l s u s u a l l y a l l o w an e x h a u s t i v e t r e a t m e n t o f t h e s u b j e c t , b u t c o n t a i n p r o b l e m s : t h e r e may be no d a t a , f o r example, t o answer 'new q u e s t i o n s ' , p a r t i c u -l a r l y i n t h e c o n t e x t o f systems a n a l y s i s o r communications s t u d i e s . F u r t h e r , because o f d i f f e r e n t r u l e s f o r r e l e a s e o f documents, the r e s e a r c h e r may be f r u s t r a t e d i n h i s attempts t o s t u d y a p e r i o d o f p a r t i c u l a r t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e r e s t t o him because o f i n c o m p l e t e d a t a . Two o t h e r l i m i t a t i o n s on t h e u t i l i t y o f t h i s t y p e o f m a t e r i a l a l s o e x i s t . F i r s t , a number o f s m a l l e r s t a t e s m ight n o t have a v a i l a b l e i n u s a b l e form t h e r e q u i r e d i n f o r m a t i o n - - a f a c t o r w hich would f r u s t r a t e s y s t e m i c a n a l y s i s o r s p e c i f i c r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o s m a l l s t a t e s . Second, the d a t a - g a t h e r i n g t a s k would be immense--in f a c t , u n e c o n o m i c - ^ f o r any a d e q u a t e l y - s i z e d sample. Few works o f h i s t o r i a n s p a r a l l e l t h e i n t e r e s t s o f contem-p o r a r y p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e , so t h e chances o f r e d u c i n g t h i s l a t t e r p r o b l e m t h r o u g h t h e use o f s e c o n d a r y m a t e r i a l s a r e s m a l l . Contemporary B e h a v i o r a l Data I n u s i n g contemporary m a t e r i a l , t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r exchanges one s e t o f problems f o r a n o t h e r , a l t h o u g h t h e ex-t e n t o f t h e s e c o n d group o f problems seems t o be n o t q u i t e so s e v e r e . C u r r e n t d a t a s o u r c e s a r e , i n t h e main, newspapers and magazines, p r e s s r e l e a s e s and t h e l i k e , and p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w s , where such a r e economic and p o s s i b l e . S i m i l a r t o th e use o f h i s t o r i c a l m a t e r i a l s , the c h i e f p r o b l e m i n u s i n g contemporary s o u r c e s stems from i n e q u a l i t y o r i n c o m p l e t e n e s s coverage a c r o s s a l l n a t i o n s t a t e s . The s e v e r i t y o f t h e incom p l e t e n e s s i s n o t so g r e a t i n modern s o u r c e s because i t s cause i s d i f f e r e n t . E v e n t s n o t deemed 'newsworthy' a r e u s u a l l y ex-c l u d e d from media o f f e r i n g s ; i t i s t h i s w hich causes t h e i n -completeness o f c o v e r a g e . The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f many s o u r c e s can compensate f o r the l o s s : n o t j u s t one b u t a v a r i e t y o f newspaper and magazine s o u r c e s can be u t i l i z e d t o r e d u c e t h e g r a v i t y o f t h e problem. Newspapers have been r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e u sed i n i n t e r -n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s r e s e a r c h . Rummel, whose o v e r a l l p r o j e c t budget runs i n t o t h e hundreds o f thousands o f d o l l a r s , i s a n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n . Under h i s d i r e c t i o n , D i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f N a t i o n s P r o j e c t r e s e a r c h e r s g a t h e r e d b e h a v i o r a l d a t a from t h e newspaper a r t i c l e s , t h e m s e l v e s . - 3 F o r most p r o j e c t s , however, the l a c k o f a l a r g e r e s e a r c h budget tends n o t t o p e r m i t t h e use o f a c t u a l news s t o r i e s p r i n t e d i n t h e d a i l y e d i t i o n s o f major p a p e r s . News s t o r i e s i n i n d e x form, however, a r e economic. Both t h e New York Times and t h e London Times p u b l i s h r e g u -l a r l y an i n d e x o f a l l o f t h e i r news m a t e r i a l . Newspaper 4 d a t a i n t h i s form have been u s e d by M c C l e l l a n d , and H o l s t i 5 and S u l l i v a n , among o t h e r s . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , however, few r e s e a r c h e r s have t a k e n advantage o f t h i s s o u r c e o f d a t a . Newspaper i n d e x e s a r e supplemented by s h o r t n a r r a t i v e a r t i c l e s , a l s o i n d e x e d , which appear a n n u a l l y o r weekly. Examples o f t h i s t y p e o f p u b l i c a t i o n i n c l u d e K e e s i n g ' s Contemporary A r c h i v e s , F a c t s on F i l e , and D e a d l i n e Data on W orld A f f a i r s . These s o u r c e s t a k e a g r e a t d e a l more time t o work w i t h b e c a u s e t h e r e s e a r c h e r c o n t i n u a l l y must move from i n d e x t o a r t i c l e and back, b u t t h e y have t h e advantage o f drawing upon more news s o u r c e s t h a n a s i n g l e newspaper 3 See R.J. Rummel, "A P r o p o s a l S u b m i t t e d t o t h e O f f i c e o f B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s , Advanced R e s e a r c h P r o j e c t s Agency, Department o f Defense, f o r B a s i c R e s e a r c h " (Mimeo). ^See, f o r example, C h a r l e s A. M c C l e l l a n d , "Access t o B e r l i n : The Q u a n t i t y and V a r i e t y o f E v e n t s 194 8-1963," i n Q u a n t i t a t i v e I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s : I n s i g h t s and E v i d e n c e , ed. J . D a v i d S i n g e r (New York: The F r e e P r e s s , 1968). O l e R. H o l s t i and John D. S u l l i v a n , " N a t i o n a l -I n t e r n a t i o n a l L i n k a g e s ; F r a n c e and C h i n a as Non-Conforming A l l i a n c e Members," i n P o l i t i c s i n a S h r i n k i n g World, ed. James N. Rosenau (New York: The F r e e P r e s s , f o r t h c o m i n g ) . 34 w i l l . K e e s i n g ' s , f o r example, u t i l i z e s t h e Times o f London, New York, and New D e l h i , t h e M o n t r e a l S t a r , P r a v d a , Le Monde, and so f o r t h — i n f a c t , e v e r y major newspaper i n t h e w o r l d . F u r t h e r , K e e s i n g ' s l i s t s s o u r c e s l i k e news r e l e a s e s from Embassies and government departments w h i c h m i g h t o r m i g h t n o t be p u b l i s h e d i n newspapers. Data from b o t h t y p e s o f i n d e x , t h e n , e x i s t i n q u a n t i t y . A l t h o u g h t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f s o u r c e e r r o r s and b i a s e s may be h i g h , t h i s form o f i n f o r m a t i o n seems worthy o f f u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n . C h a r l e s M c C l e l l a n d , who u t i l i z e d New York Times Index d a t a f o r h i s B e r l i n s t u d y , 6 f e e l s t h a t t h e u t i l i t y o f t h e s o u r c e i s g r e a t enough t o o f f s e t l o s s e s t h r o u g h e r r o r , even though t h e s e d i f f i c u l t i e s c annot be o v e r l o o k e d : Of a l l t h e r e l e v a n t e v e n t s t h a t o c c u r r e d , o n l y some were r e c o r d e d by anybody; o f a l l t h e e v e n t s r e c o r d e d anywhere, one American news-pa p e r (however s p e c i a l i t i s as a 'newspaper o f r e c o r d ' ) p r i n t e d o n l y a p a r t ; and o f a l l t h e r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n p r i n t e d i n t h e newspaper, o n l y a p a r t was i n d e x e d (such s h o r t c o m i n g must be assumed on p r i n c i p l e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e n a t u r e o f i n d e x i n g ) . F u r t h e r l o s s e s and d i s t o r t i o n s were i n f l i c t e d no doubt, i n our g a t h e r i n g and c a t e g o r i z i n g o f the m a t e r i a l s t h a t were t a k e n from t h e New York Times Index.7 b I n S i n g e r , l o c . c i t . 7 I b i d . , p. 164. He might have added one f u r t h e r problem: o c c a s i o n a l l y , t h e i n d e x e n t r y , by i t s e l f , p r o v i d e s i n s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n t o a l l o w t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o code c o n f i d e n t l y w i t h o u t c o n s u l t i n g t h e a c t u a l newspaper a r t i c l e . Summary Index d a t a , t h e n , show pr o m i s e i n two r e s p e c t s : a v a i l a b i l i t y and r e l a t i v e economy. T h e i r p o t e n t i a l makes w o r t h w h i l e any attempt s y s t e m a t i c a l l y t o use t h e i n d e x e s , t o d i s c o v e r t h e i r b i a s e s and problems, and t o f i n d whether t h e s e d i f f i c u l t i e s can be c i r c u m s c r i b e d . As we saw e a r l i e r , communications d a t a , t o o , a r e a v a i l a b l e i n r e a s o n a b l e quan-t i t y . The i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d t o e x p l o r e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f communications t o b e h a v i o r , i n s h o r t , can be o b t a i n e d . CHAPTER IV THE RESEARCH PROBLEM In t h e l a s t c h a p t e r , t h r e e s p e c i f i c g o v e r n m e n t a l c h a n n e l s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n were i d e n t i -f i e d as r e s e a r c h a b l e . These were v i s i t s by heads o f s t a t e , d i p l o m a t i c exchanges (DEs) and memberships i n i n t e r -g o v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s (IGOs). Because t h i s s t u d y was c o n c e i v e d as a p i l o t p r o j e c t , an attempt was made t o keep the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n as s i m p l e as p o s s i b l e . To t h i s end, v i s i t s by heads o f s t a t e were c o u n t e d n o t as communicative d a t a , b u t were c o n s i d e r e d i n s t e a d as p a r t o f t h e b e h a v i o r a l d a t a , i n temporary v i o l a t i o n o f t h e model. T h i s p o s i t i o n i n v o k e s no r e a l harm s i n c e v i s i t s seldom p r o v i d e enough new s o u r c e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n t o a l t e r t h e s y s t e m s i g n i f i c a n t l y . F u r t h e r , t h e s e v i s i t s a r e n o t c o n t i n u o u s s o u r c e s o f i n f o r -m a t i o n , as t h e o t h e r two r e s e a r c h a b l e c h a n n e l s a r e , and i t was c o n t i n u o u s i n f o r m a t i o n c h a n n e l s i n which t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r was p r i m a r i l y i n t e r e s t e d . The r e s e a r c h problem a r i s e s from th e q u e s t i o n o f whether communications l e v e l s and b e h a v i o r can be r e l a t e d . S p e c i f i c a l l y , Does a h i g h e r l e v e l o f p o l i t i c a l system i n f o r m a t i o n r e s u l t i n t h e tendency f o r a n a t i o n s t a t e t o o r i e n t more o f i t s a c t i o n s toward th e system? The problem 37 i s f o r m u l a t e d t o measure d i r e c t i o n o f b e h a v i o r s , r a t h e r t h a n q u a n t i t y . The r e a s o n f o r t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n r e l a t e s t o t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s , d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , o f u s i n g newspaper i n d e x s o u r c e s f o r t h e b e h a v i o r a l d a t a : t o o many u n c e r t a i n t i e s e x i s t t o measure amounts o f b e h a v i o r w i t h any c o n f i d e n c e . M e a s u r i n g o n l y t h e d i r e c t i o n i n s t e a d o f t h e q u a n t i t y t e n d s t o m i n i m i z e , a t l e a s t , some o f t h e problems which i n h e r e i n t h e use o f such d a t a . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i n f o r m a t i o n v a r i a b l e s , i t can be assumed w i t h s a f e t y t h a t news about th e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i -t i c a l system a c c r u e s b o t h from s e n d i n g d i p l o m a t s a b r o a d and from p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n IGO a c t i v i t i e s . We s h a l l n o t examine d i p l o m a t s r e c e i v e d from a b r o a d b e c a u s e — a l t h o u g h some p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n o b v i o u s l y comes from t h e s e s o u r c e s - -t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i s l e s s l i k e l y t o be s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d , and more l i k e l y t o c o n t a i n fewer t r u s t e d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , o v e r the l o n g r u n , t h a n i n f o r m a t i o n s e n t by a n a t i o n s t a t e ' s own d i p l o m a t s . One f u r t h e r f a c t o r e n t e r e d i n t o t h e d e c i s i o n t o i g n o r e d i p l o m a t s r e c e i v e d i n home c a p i t a l s . R e c e i v i n g d i p l o m a t s t e n d s t o be a p a s s i v e , r a t h e r t h a n a c t i v e , be-h a v i o r : t h e s i t u a t i o n does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i n d i c a t e p a r t i -c i p a t i o n i n t h e system. Sending d i p l o m a t s , on t h e o t h e r hand, does i n d i c a t e a more i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r i e n t a t i o n . B o t h t h i s a c t i v i t y and IGO p a r t i c i p a t i o n can be assumed t o produce 38 c r e d i b l e , i n t e r p r e t e d i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h , once t r a n s m i t t e d t o t h e home government, might have an e f f e c t on t h a t g o v e r n -ment's p o l i c i e s and a c t i o n s . 1 We t u r n now t o t h e two h y p o t h e s e s . O n e — t h e main r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s - - i s o b v i o u s l y t h e one o f c h i e f i n t e r e s t . The second i s an a l t e r n a t i v e t o check on t h e v a l i d i t y o f i n d i c a t o r s used i n t h e f i r s t . The Hypotheses and R e s e a r c h D e s i g n The c o n t r o l l i n g v a r i a b l e i n t h e f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s i s DE l e v e l s f o r sample n a t i o n s t a t e s . The scope o f t h i s p r o -j e c t d i d n o t make p o s s i b l e t h e c o n t r o l o f a l a r g e number o f v a r i a b l e s such as g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t , s t a b i l i t y , and so f o r t h . Hence, d i p l o m a t i c exchange l e v e l was c o n s i d e r e d t o be t h e b e s t s i n g l e i n d i c a t o r o f t h e e n t i r e c l u s t e r o f c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s , i n c l u d i n g s i z e , w e a l t h , p o p u l a t i o n , o r i e n t a t i o n t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s , t e c h n i c a l advancement,and b u r e a u -c r a t i c s o p h i s t i c a t i o n . The i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e under t h e r e s e a r c h hypo-t h e s i s i s IGO memberships. T h i s measure e x h i b i t s a f a i r l y x F o r example, a s t u d y by A l g e r i n d i c a t e d t h a t h i g h communication l e v e l s , i n t h e p h y s i c a l s e t t i n g o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s , f o s t e r e d the a v o i d a n c e o f c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s be-tween member s t a t e s . See Chadwick A l g e r , " N o n - R e s o l u t i o n Consequences o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s and T h e i r E f f e c t on I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f l i c t , " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , V, 2 (1961), pp. 128-145. wide v a r i a t i o n a c r o s s a l l n a t i o n s t a t e s , and l e n d s i t s e l f t o m a n i p u l a t i o n ( t h r o u g h s a m p l i n g c h o i c e ) w h i l e c o n t r o l l i n g f o r DE l e v e l . As s t a t e d e a r l i e r , t h e main t h e o r e t i c a l i n t e r e s t i n IGO memberships a r i s e s from t h e h i g h c o n t e n t o f i n t e r p r e t e d i n f o r m a t i o n which t h e v a r i a b l e can be assumed t o p o s s e s s . The dependent v a r i a b l e i s t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r (out o f t o t a l a c t i o n s ) e x h i b i t e d by sample n a t i o n s t a t e s . T h i s l e a d s us t o t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s : 1. A n a t i o n s t a t e w i t h a h i g h e r l e v e l o f IGO memberships w i l l t e n d t o e x h i b i t a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d a c t i o n s t h a n a n a t i o n s t a t e w i t h a lower l e v e l o f IGO memberships, DE l e v e l s b e i n g t h e same. To t e s t t h i s h y p o t h e s i s , n a t i o n s t a t e s i n t h e sample were p a i r e d , c o n t r o l l i n g f o r DE l e v e l s w i t h i n p l u s o r minus t e n p e r c e n t o f t h e DE s c o r e . Each c o u n t r y i n t h e p a i r t h e n d i f f e r e d by more t h a n t e n p e r c e n t on i t s IGO s c o r e , and t h e b e h a v i o r o f one n a t i o n was compared t o t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h e o t h e r i n t h e p a i r t o check f o r s u p p o r t o r r e j e c t i o n o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s . To c o n t r o l f o r the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t s u p p o r t might o c c u r by chance, and t o c o n t r o l s i m i l a r l y f o r the p o s s i b i l i t y o f i n v a l i d r e a s o n i n g i n t h e c h o i c e o f c o n t r o l and i n d e p e n d e n t 40 v a r i a b l e s , t h e a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s " t u r n s t h e t a b l e on i t s s i d e . " T h i s second h y p o t h e s i s s t a t e s : 2. A n a t i o n s t a t e w i t h a h i g h e r l e v e l o f DEs w i l l t e n d t o e x h i b i t a l a r g e r p r o -p o r t i o n o f s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d a c t i o n s t h a n a n a t i o n s t a t e w i t h a lower l e v e l o f DEs, IGO membership l e v e l s b e i n g t h e same. A c c o r d i n g t o t h e model o u t l i n e d i n t h e s e c o n d c h a p t e r , t h i s h y p o t h e s i s c o u l d be s u p p o r t e d by t h e d a t a , i f DE l e v e l s e r v e s no r e a s o n a b l e c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n f o r s i z e , o r i e n t a t i o n , and c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e a c t o r . I n o t h e r words, i f IGO memberships a r e e q u a l l y good as a s i n g l e i n d i c a t o r f o r t h e c o n t r o l v a r i -a b l e s , under t h e model, t h e d a t a c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o c o n f i r m t h e a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s . No attempt was made s t a t i s t i c a l l y t o c o r r e l a t e DE and IGO s c o r e s w i t h t h e n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s t o be c o n t r o l l e d , b u t an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e d a t a showed IGO memberships t o v a r y g r e a t l y a c c o r d i n g t o f u n c t i o n s o t h e r t h a n s i z e , w h i l e DEs f o l l o w e d q u i t e c l o s e l y t h e c o u n t r i e s ' r e l a t i v e a t t r i b u t e l e v e l s . Thus, i t was e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s would n o t be s u p p o r t e d by t h e d a t a . 41 So u r c e s D i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s were used f o r each o f t h e t h r e e v a r i a b l e s . DE t o t a l s were c o l l e c t e d p r i v a t e l y , IGO member-s h i p s were t a k e n from a p u b l i s h e d volume, and b e h a v i o r d a t a were t a k e n from two o f t h e i n d e x s o u r c e s d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r . D i p l o m a t i c exchange l e v e l s were c o l l e c t e d by P r o f e s s o r Chadwick A l g e r and by S t e v e n J . Brams, i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e l a t t e r " s d o c t o r a l d i s s e r t a t i o n . The d a t a c o l l e c t e d by the two men were t h e r e s u l t o f a p a t i e n t p r o c e s s o f l e t t e r w r i t i n g t o each o f t h e 119 n a t i o n s t a t e s o v e r a p e r i o d o f 3 "many months." The d a t a on DE l e v e l s a r e n o t e x a c t f o r two r e a s o n s -time and i n c o m p l e t e n e s s . F i r s t , t h e l i s t s s e n t by r e s p o n d i n g n a t i o n s c o v e r e d a on e - a n d - o n e - h a l f y e a r t i m e p e r i o d (June 1963 t o J a n u a r y 1965). Second, n o t a l l c o u n t r i e s r e s p o n d e d t o t h e r e q u e s t f o r i n f o r m a t i o n . Some o f t h e DE d a t a , t h e r e -f o r e , had t o be d e r i v e d from t h a t w hich was a v a i l a b l e . A t h i r d f a c t o r a f f e c t e d t h e d i p l o m a t i c t o t a l s . N a t i o n s , on t h e whole, s e n t t o A l g e r and Brams t h e l i s t o f f o r e i g n d i p l o m a t s r e s i d i n g i n t h e r e s p o n d i n g c o u n t r y ' s home E x h a u s t i v e l i s t s o f a l l d i p l o m a t s , c o u n t r y , name, and p o s t i n g were p u b l i s h e d i n E n g l a n d i n 1950 and a g a i n i n 1951, b u t t h e v e n t u r e — o b v i o u s l y i n t e n d e d t o be a n n u a l — f a i l e d and no p u b l i s h e d s o u r c e s have appeared s i n c e . 3 P e r s o n a l c o r r e s p o n d e n c e from Brams. 42 c a p i t a l , n o t t h e number o f i t s own d i p l o m a t s which were ab r o a d . Thus, t h e d a t a on d i p l o m a t s s e n t a b r o a d by each sample c o u n t r y had t o be d e r i v e d . None o f t h e s e t h r e e problems i s u n d u l y s e v e r e , however, as A p pendix B shows. The d a t a p r o v i d e d t o t a l s on b o t h t h e number o f c o u n t r i e s i n which t h e s e n d i n g n a t i o n had r e s i d e n t r e p r e s e n -t a t i o n , and t h e number o f d i p l o m a t i c p e r s o n n e l a b r o a d . A t h i r d s c o r e , r e a c h e d by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e one t o t a l by t h e o t h e r , g i v e s a combined v a l u e f o r each n a t i o n . A Spearman's Rank C o r r e l a t i o n t e s t , r u n p a i r w i s e a t a time f o r a l l t h r e e t o t a l s , showed s u f f i c i e n t rank u n i f o r m i t y between the two o r i g i n a l columns t o a l l o w t h e c h o i c e o f number o f f o r e i g n 4 c a p i t a l s as t h e c r u c i a l s c o r e . 4 T h e Spearman c o e f f i c i e n t f o r f o r e i g n c a p i t a l s w i t h t o t a l d i p l o m a t s was .944; f o r f o r e i g n c a p i t a l s w i t h t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e two p r i m a r y s c o r e s , t h e c o e f f i c i e n t was .98; f o r t o t a l d i p l o m a t s w i t h p r o d u c t , t h e c o e f f i c i e n t was .989. The s m a l l e s t T - s c o r e w i t h 117 degrees o f freedom was 30.8. The v a l u e s o b t a i n e d on t h i s t e s t were c o n s i d e r e d s u f f i c i e n t l y h i g h t h a t no s t r o n g e r t e s t was w a r r a n t e d . The f o r e i g n c a p i t a l s t o t a l , a l t h o u g h lower t h a n t o t a l d i p l o m a t s , was chosen on two grounds. One, i t was t h e s i m p l e s t t o work w i t h , and a c o e f f i c i e n t o f .944 was c o n s i d e r e d w i t h i n t h e bounds o f a c c e p t a b i l i t y . Two, because o f t h e system o r i e n -t a t i o n o f t h i s p r o j e c t , t h e number o f f o r e i g n c a p i t a l s from which i n f o r m a t i o n c o u l d come t o a home government was c o n s i d e r e d more r e l e v a n t t h a n t h e number o f p e r s o n s a v a i l -a b l e t o send i t . 43 Data f o r t h e IGO membership s c o r e s were g a t h e r e d from one s o u r c e , t h e Worldmark E n c y c l o p a e d i a o f t h e N a t i o n s . T h i s volume d e v o t e s most o f i t s pages t o t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s and i t s s u b s i d i a r y o r g a n i z a t i o n s , t h e n t o w o r l d o r g a n i z a -t i o n s such as t h e G e n e r a l Agreement on T a r i f f s and T r a d e , I n t e r n a t i o n a l Atomic Energy Agency, and so f o r t h . I n c l u d e d w i t h an e x t e n s i v e a r t i c l e on each o r g a n i z a t i o n i s a l i s t o f members as o f J a n u a r y 1963; membership d a t a were t a k e n from each o f t h e s e l i s t s . A t a b l e n e a r t h e end o f t h e volume p r o v i d e d d a t a on memberships i n s p e c i a l i z e d and r e g i o n a l IGOs. A l t h o u g h t h e s e p a r a t e t o t a l s f o r w o r l d and r e g i o n a l IGO memberships were summed f o r a gr a n d IGO s c o r e , t h e c r u c i a l t o t a l i n t h e p r o c e s s o f sample s e l e c t i o n was t h e w o r l d IGO s c o r e , i n l i n e w i t h t h e model.^ B e h a v i o r a l d a t a were t a k e n from two o f t h e s o u r c e s d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r I I I , K e e s i n g ' s Contemporary A r c h i v e s ^Worldmark E n c y c l o p a e d i a o f t h e N a t i o n s , v o l . I : United N a t i o n s (New York: 1965). ^World IGO s c o r e s were e x c l u d e d from t h e Brams s t u d y on t h e b a s i s t h a t a l l n a t i o n s t a t e s were members, and t h a t t o i n c l u d e them would s i m p l y add a c o n s t a n t t o t h e t o t a l s . See A l g e r and Brams, op. c i t . , p. 657. On t h e c o n t r a r y , t h e t o t a l s r a n g e d from z e r o ( E a s t Germany and m a i n l a n d China) t o 2 6 ( U n i t e d S t a t e s and F r a n c e ) , w i t h a mean o f 9.37 memberships i n w o r l d IGOs. I n t h i s s t u d y , t h e o n l y w o r l d IGOs n o t c o u n t e d were t h o s e where membership i n v o l v e d f o r m a l adherence o n l y , and t h o s e i n which t h e r e were no r e g u l a r l y 44 and t h e New Y o rk Times Index. A l t h o u g h some e x c e p t i o n s were fou n d , e n t r i e s f o r t h e most p a r t c o n t a i n e d s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r -m a t i o n on w h i c h a c o d i n g d e c i s i o n c o u l d be b a s e d w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o c o n s u l t t h e o r i g i n a l news s t o r y . F u r t h e r c o n -s i d e r a t i o n w i l l be g i v e n t o t h i s t o p i c l a t e r . The Sampling P r o c e d u r e S a m p l i n g o r i g i n a l l y was p l a n n e d as a random p r o c e s s , b u t a number o f d i f f i c u l t i e s f o r c e d a change i n t h e s a m p l i n g a p p r o a c h . The r e s e a r c h was u n d e r t a k e n w i t h o u t th e b e n e f i t o f computer a n a l y s i s ( i r o n i c a l l y , because o f i n s u f f i c i e n t t i m e ) . T h i s meant t h a t t h e r e s e a r c h e r had t o s e l e c t h i s sample by hand, c h e c k i n g a c r o s s t o t a l s f o r DEs, IGOs, and b e h a v i o r a l d a t a f o r a l l 119 i n d e p e n d e n t c o u n t r i e s i n t h e sample y e a r , 1963. I t was h e r e t h a t t h e s a m p l i n g p r o b l e m a r o s e . There were few n a t i o n s t a t e s w hich p a i r e d on t h e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e , d i f f e r e d s u f f i c i e n t l y on t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e , and d i s p l a y e d a l a r g e enough number o f b e h a v i o r a l o r f r e q u e n t l y s c h e d u l e d meetings o f members. These e x c l u d e d o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e : P a r t Two members o f the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development A s s o c i a t i o n ( o v e r l a p s memberships i n W o r l d Bank), I n t e r n a t i o n a l C i v i l A v i a t i o n O r g a n i z a t i o n ( i n f r e q u e n t m e e t i n g s ) , I n t e r n a t i o n a l T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s Union ( i n f r e q u e n t m e e t i n g s ) , U n i v e r s a l P o s t a l Union (meets each f i v e y e a r s o n l y ) , I n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l M a r i t i m e C o n s u l t a t i v e O r g a n i z a t i o n (meets each two y e a r s o n l y ) , and World M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O r g a n i z a t i o n (meets each f o u r y e a r s o n l y ) . 45 e n t r i e s t o make a n a l y s i s w o r t h w h i l e . The ( a r b i t r a r y ) c r i t e r i o n f o r s e l e c t i o n o f a c o u n t r y on t h e dependent v a r i -a b l e was t h a t t h e n a t i o n , t o be i n c l u d e d i n t h e sample, had t o a c t i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system a t l e a s t f i v e t i m e s , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e e n t r i e s i n K e e s j n g ' s f o r 1963. The r e a s o n s f o r t h e c h o i c e o f c a l e n d a r 1963 as t h e sample y e a r were p u r e l y p r a g m a t i c . The Brams d i p l o m a t i c d a t a ( w i t h o u t w hich t h i s p r o j e c t would n o t have been pos-s i b l e ) were l a b e l l e d 1963, a l t h o u g h t h e y would be e q u a l l y a p p l i c a b l e t o 1964 because o f t h e r e p o r t s ' o n e - a n d - o n e - h a l f y e a r s p r e a d , d i s c u s s e d above. T h i s r e s e a r c h e r f e l t t h a t f o r t h e sake o f c o n s i s t e n c y w i t h Brams and f o r f u t u r e use o f o t h e r 1963 d a t a a l r e a d y c o l l e c t e d ( f o r example, e x p o r t f i g u r e s , n o t us e d i n t h i s p r o j e c t ) , s e l e c t i o n o f t h e s p e c i f i c y e a r was j u s t i f i e d . F u r t h e r , t h e IGO l i s t s were p u b l i s h e d as o f e a r l y 1963, a l t h o u g h t h e volume c o n t a i n i n g t h e i n f o r m a t i o n was c o p y r i g h t e d i n 1965. I n a l l , t w e n ty-seven c o u n t r i e s were sampled. Twenty n a t i o n s , i n t e n p a i r s , were used t o t e s t t h e r e s e a r c h hypo-t h e s i s ; a s i m i l a r number a l s o i n t e n p a i r s , was r e q u i r e d t o t e s t t h e a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s . I t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o use t h e same sample c o u n t r i e s under b o t h h y p o t h e s e s . The s e l -e c t i o n problems o u t l i n e d above made n e c e s s a r y t h e a d d i t i o n 46 o f f i v e n a t i o n s t o t h e l i s t used under t h e second hypo-t h e s i s , and t h e concommitant d e l e t i o n o f f i v e o f t h e c o u n t r i e s from t h e o r i g i n a l l i s t . Two n a t i o n s , A l g e r i a and Cuba, o r i g i n a l l y were i n c l u d e d w i t h i n t h e sample, b u t were d e l e t e d b e f o r e c o d i n g when i t became c l e a r t h a t t h e i r i n c l u s i o n would add s e v e r e b i a s t o t h e t e s t s . Each o f t h e two c o u n t r i e s o p e r a t e d under e x t e n u a t i n g c i r c u m s t a n c e s i n 1963. A l g e r i a was s t i l l i n t h e p r o c e s s o f c o n s o l i d a t i n g i t s i n d e p e n d e n c e , h a v i n g g a i n e d t h a t s t a t u s o n l y i n l a t e 1962. I t s c i r c u m s t a n c e s were c o m p l i c a t e d by a b o r d e r war w i t h Morocco l a t e i n 1963. Cuba was s t i l l d e e p l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e a f t e r m a t h o f t h e 1962 M i s s i l e C r i s i s . Both n a t i o n s ' b e h a v i o r s , however, were s u b m i t t e d t o c o d i n g i n o r d e r t o g i v e a l a r g e r N i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f c o d i n g p r o b l e m s . 7 C o d i n g C a t e g o r i e s Two c o d i n g d e c i s i o n s were r e q u i r e d f o r each o f t h e 581 b e h a v i o r a l d a t a e n t r i e s f o r t h e twenty-seven sample n a t i o n s . F i r s t , a d e c i s i o n was made t o i n c l u d e o r e x c l u d e t h e e n t r y from c o n s i d e r a t i o n as an i n t e r - n a t i o n p o l i t i c a l a c t i o n . Second, a d e c i s i o n was made under t h e h y p o t h e s e s : A l g e r i a , t h e f i r s t n a t i o n d e a l t w i t h by t h e p a n e l , had t h e h i g h e s t number o f c o d i n g e r r o r s and r e d u c e d t h e c o d i n g r e l i a b i l i t y s c o r e c o n s i d e r a b l y . was t h e e n t r y i n d i c a t i v e p r i m a r i l y o f a c t i o n i n t h e n a t i o n 1 s e l f - i n t e r e s t , o r d i d t h e a c t i o n d i s p l a y system o r i e n t a t i o n The s econd d e c i s i o n , r e s p e c t i n g s e l f o r system i n -t e r e s t , may seem a t f i r s t t o be s p u r i o u s , s i n c e v i r t u a l l y a l l b e h a v i o r by any a c t o r can be r e g a r d e d u l t i m a t e l y as s e l f - i n t e r e s t e d . T h i s p o s i t i o n d e r i v e s perhaps from common se n s e : a d e c i s i o n maker would t a k e no a c t i o n w h i c h he was u n a b l e t o j u s t i f y i n terms o f d i r e c t o r i n d i r e c t n a t i o n a l b e n e f i t . The p o s i t i o n has been a t r a d i t i o n a l one i n d i p l o -m a t i c h i s t o r y and i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s a n a l y s i s , and t h e l i t e r a t u r e c o n t a i n s a l a r g e number o f taxonomies o f ' g o a l s ' The e n u m e r a t i o n o f ' g o a l s ' may p o s s e s s p e d a g o g i c a l o r des-c r i p t i v e u t i l i t y , b u t tends t o l a c k o p e r a t i o n a l power f o r many q u e s t i o n s f o r e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h . F o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s p r o j e c t and o t h e r s l i k e i t , t h e n o t i o n o f u l t i m a t e s e l f - i n t e r e s t i n n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r must be d i s c a r d e d i n f a v o r o f some o t h e r c l a s s i f i c a t o r y scheme. I n o t h e r words, i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o p l a c e prime i m p o r t a n c e on what Abraham K a p l a n terms " a c t i o n meaning" See, f o r example, A r n o l d W o l f e r s , D i s c o r d and C o l l a b o r a t i o n : E s s a y s on I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s ( B a l t i -more: Johns H o p k i n s , 1962), e s p e c i a l l y C h a p t e r V , "The Go a l s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " pp. 67-80. 48 9 r a t h e r t h a n " a c t meaning." I n making t h e s h i f t we d i f f e r -e n t i a t e between t h e meaning o f t h e b e h a v i o r t o t h e a c t o r and t h e meaning o f t h e e v e n t t o t h e r e s e a r c h e r . I t i s b o t h n e c e s s a r y and l e g i t i m a t e t o a s c r i b e meaning t o m a n i f e s t e d a c t i o n s f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f a n a l y s i s . The d i s t i n c t i o n between s e l f - o r i e n t e d and system-o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r can be drawn a l o n g two main d i m e n s i o n s , d i r e c t n e s s o f p a y o f f and number o f n a t i o n s i n v o l v e d i n t h e t r a n s a c t i o n , as T a b l e I i n d i c a t e s . Each o f t h e s e d i m e n s i o n s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n t u r n , a f t e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s g i v e n t o two u n d e r l y i n g c o n c e p t s , e n v i r o n m e n t a l s u s c e p t i b i l i t y and t h e a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n o f v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s . A l t h o u g h t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system i s t h e f o c u s o f our a n a l y t i c i n t e r e s t , t h e system i s — f o r each a c t o r — a n e n v i r o n m e n t a l v a r i a b l e . We a r e c o n c e r n e d a t t h e o p e r a t i o n a l l e v e l t o d i s c o v e r t h o s e n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r s which d i s p l a y c o g n i z a n c e o f t h e a c t o r ' s i n t e r n a t i o n a l en-v i r o n m e n t . The a n a l o g y c a n n o t be p r e s s e d f a r , b u t t h e y S e e Abraham K a p l a n , The Conduct o f I n q u i r y : Methodology f o r B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e (San F r a n c i s c o : C h a n d l e r , 1964), pp. 32-33 and pp. 139-141. 49 TABLE I CATEGORIZATION OF INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR BY TWO VARIABLES—NUMBER OF NATIONS AND PAYOFF Number o f N a t i o n s P a y o f f i n v o l v e d w i t h DIRECT INDIRECT a c t o r S p e c i f i c t o o r n o n e . S p e c i f i c a c t i n g n a t i o n t o en v i r o n m e n t M u l t i l a t e r a l S e l f - o r i e n t e d S y s t e m - o r i e n t e d (a) B i l a t e r a l S e l f - o r i e n t e d S e l f - o r i e n t e d (d) (b) U n i l a t e r a l S e l f - o r i e n t e d S y s t e m - o r i e n t e d (c) (a) M u l t i l a t e r a l t r a n s a c t i o n s i n v o l v e a n a t i o n w i t h two o r more a c t o r s on t h e same e v e n t . The b e h a v i n g n a t i o n ' s a c t i o n s a r e e i t h e r t a k e n i n c o n c e r t w i t h two o r more c o u n t r i e s , o r are d i r e c t e d toward them. (b) B i l a t e r a l t r a n s a c t i o n s i n v o l v e a n a t i o n w i t h o n l y one o t h e r c o u n t r y , whether as c o l l a b o r a t o r o r as t a r g e t . (c) U n i l a t e r a l b e h a v i o r i s d i r e c t e d t o no o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , o r t o a l l . T h i s s o r t o f a c t i o n u s u a l l y i n v o l v e s d e c l a r a t i o n s and t h e l i k e . (d) E x c e p t where a c t i o n i s d i r e c t e d toward o r f o l l o w e d by subsequent b e h a v i o r c o n c e r n i n g any o t h e r ( i . e . t h i r d ) n a t i o n o r IGO i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e same e v e n t ; and e x c e p t where t h e b e h a v i o r i s s p e c i f i c a l l y r e l a t e d t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l system norms, e.g. g i v i n g f o r e i g n a i d . 50 a u t h o r s o f The L o n e l y C r o w d 1 0 o f f e r a u s e f u l d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g c o n c e p t . Taken s l i g h t l y o u t o f c o n t e x t , Riesman e t a l . s t a t e t h e d i f f e r e n c e between ' i n n e r - d i r e c t e d ' and ' o t h e r - d i r e c t e d ' b e h a v i o r : The i n n e E - ' d i r e c t e d p e r s o n has e a r l y i n c o r -p o r a t e d a p s y c h i c g y r o s c o p e . . . . He goes t h r o u g h l i f e . . . o b e y i n g t h i s i n t e r n a l p i l o t i n g . H . . .the o t h e r - d i r e c t e d p e r s o n l e a r n s t o r e s p o n d t o s i g n a l s f r o m a f a r w i d e r c i r c l e . . . . T h i s c o n t r o l equipment, i n s t e a d o f b e i n g l i k e a g y r o s c o p e , i s l i k e a r a d a r . 1 2 D i s t i n g u i s h i n g between s e l f and system o r i e n t a t i o n i n be-h a v i o r s , t h e n , we a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f s u s c e p t i b i l i t y t o t h e 'wider c i r c l e ' — t h e e n vironment o f t h e n a t i o n , t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system. By d e f i n i t i o n ( f o l l o w i n g E a s t o n and o t h e r s ) , any t i m e a n a t i o n ' s agents a c t i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system, t h e d e c i s i o n makers have a l l o c a t e d v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s on b e h a l f o f t h e i r p o l i t y . O p e r a t i o n a l l y , t h e s e v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s i n c l u d e more t h a n mere economic i t e m s . A l s o i n c l u d e d a r e 1 0 S e e D a v i d Riesman, Nathan G l a z e r and R e u e l Denney, The L o n e l y Crowd: A S t u d y o f t h e Changing American C h a r a c t e r , a b r i d g e d e d i t i o n , ( N e w Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1950), C h a p t e r 1. l x I b i d . , p. 24. 1 2 I b i d . , p. 25. 51 f u t u r e freedom o f a c t i o n , J s t a t u s , s e c u r i t y , t e c h n i c a l knowledge, and p e r s o n n e l o r m a n - h o u r s . 1 4 Thus, an a l l o c a t i o n o f any o f t h e s e r e s o u r c e s must be d i r e c t e d t o a ' p a y o f f , a b e n e f i t w hich i s c o n f e r r e d d i r e c t l y upon t h e a c t i n g n a t i o n , o r i n d i r e c t l y upon t h e a c t i n g n a t i o n ' s en-v i r o n m e n t i n l i n e w i t h t h e n a t i o n ' s d e s i r e f o r a h o s p i t a b l e e n v i r o n m e n t . T h i s n o t i o n and t h e c o n c e p t o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l s u s c e p t i b i l i t y b e a r on t h e two d i m e n s i o n s o f s e l f v e r s u s s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d a c t i o n . The most i m p o r t a n t d i m e n s i o n which h e l p s t o d i f f e r -e n t i a t e between t h e two t y p e s o f b e h a v i o r i s p a y o f f . R e g a r d l e s s o f t h e number o f s t a t e s w i t h whom t h e n a t i o n i n t e r a c t s d u r i n g any s i n g l e e v e n t , t h e b e h a v i o r must be s e l f - o r i e n t e d i f t h e p a y o f f o r b e n e f i t i s s p e c i f i c t o t h e a c t o r . The c r i t e r i o n f o r judgement i s an a f f i r m a t i v e answer t o t h e q u e s t i o n , I s t h e a c t i o n d i r e c t e d p r i m a r i l y toward g a i n i n g any v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s f o r t h e b e h a v i n g n a t i o n ? Two q u a l i f i c a t i o n s i n h e r e i n t h i s c r i t e r i o n . The a c t i o n may be d i r e c t e d t o more t h a n one b e n e f i t . The r e s e a r c h e r must c o n c e r n h i m s e l f o n l y w i t h t h e a p p a r e n t p r i m a r y c o n c e r n o f 1 3 A t r e a t y commitment, f o r example, i s a c o n s t r a i n t — a c t u a l o r p o t e n t i a l — u p o n a n a t i o n ' s freedom o f c h o i c e i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s ; freedom o f a c t i o n t h e o r e t i c a l l y c o u l d be f u l l y 'spent' and i s thus a v a l u e d r e s o u r c e . 1 4 T h i s r e s o u r c e i s more s a l i e n t w i t h r e s p e c t t o s m a l l o r d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s than t o l a r g e o r d e v e l o p e d ones, which e n j o y a more e x t e n s i v e p o o l o f t r a i n e d p e r s o n n e l from which t o draw. t h e a c t o r ; t h i s o b v i o u s l y i s a j u d g e m e n t a l m a t t e r , b u t c e r t a i n l y n o t an i n s u r m o u n t a b l e one. The s econd c o n d i t i o n i s t h a t t h e a c t o r 1 s b e h a v i o r be d i r e c t e d toward a n e t g a i n . A p o l i c y may f a i l , o f c o u r s e , b u t i f i t i s d i r e c t e d toward t h i s n e t g a i n , t h e i n t e n d e d b e n e f i t would be d i r e c t , and t h e b e h a v i o r would d i s p l a y s e l f - o r i e n t a t i o n . An example m i g h t b e s t i l l u s t r a t e t h i s c r i t e r i o n and i t s two c o n d i t i o n s . Y u g o s l a v i a , i n 1963, sought t o move f a r t h e r from th e S o v i e t b l o c and c l o s e r t o t h e 'West'. P r e s i d e n t T i t o d e c i d e d upon a v i s i t t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . A f t e r p e r s i s t i n g , h i s attempt t o a r r a n g e a m e e t i n g w i t h a r e l u c t a n t P r e s i d e n t Kennedy f i n a l l y s u c c e e d e d . A s i d e from t h e economic e x p e n d i t u r e f o r a i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , P r e s i d e n t T i t o a l l o c a t e d t h e r e s o u r c e , s t a t u s , i n an attempt t o g a i n f o r h i s c o u n t r y a n o t h e r r e s o u r c e which he c l e a r l y v a l u e d h i g h e r t h a n p r e s t i g e a t t h e t i m e : f u t u r e freedom o f a c t i o n , and perhaps p e r i p h e r a l l y , i n c r e a s e d s e c u r i t y and perhaps economic v a l u e s t h r o u g h new t r a d e markets. C l e a r l y , t h e i n t e n d e d b e n e f i t from T i t o ' s a l l o c a t i o n s was d i r e c t e d t o a n e t g a i n i n v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s f o r Y u g o s l a v i a , and thus was s e l f - o r i e n t e d by r e a s o n o f t h e d i r e c t n e s s o f p a y o f f . P r e s i d e n t T i t o m i g h t have had i n mind a r e c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f t h e w o r l d p o l i t i c a l system as a r e s u l t o f h i s v i s i t t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , b u t t h i s p a y o f f o b v i o u s l y was n o t t h e one t o which h i s a c t i o n s p r i m a r i l y were d i r e c t e d . 53 An i n d i r e c t p a y o f f i s a b e n e f i t s p e c i f i c t o t h e a c t o r ' s e n v i r o n m e n t ; b e h a v i o r d i r e c t e d t o t h i s end g e n e r -a l l y t e n d s t o be s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d , and d i s p l a y s t h e s u s c e p t i b i l i t y t o e n v i r o n m e n t which was d i s c u s s e d above. The p r i m a r y t a r g e t o f a c t i o n r e l a t i n g t o an i n d i r e c t p a y o f f w i l l t h u s be g e n e r a l system c o n d i t i o n s , IGOs, o r o t h e r n a t i o n s t a t e s , r a t h e r t h a n t h e a c t i n g n a t i o n . Func-t i o n a l l y , t h e i n d i r e c t b e n e f i t s c a t e g o r y subsumes a c t i o n s i n v o l v i n g no p a y o f f . B e h a v i o r s d i r e c t e d t o no s p e c i f i c p a y o f f s u s u a l l y a r e e x p r e s s i v e o r s y m b o l i c , and most o f t e n r e q u i r e t h e a l l o c a t i o n e i t h e r o f few v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s o r o f 1 5 r e s o u r c e s o f l i t t l e v a l u e . The second d i m e n s i o n — n u m b e r o f n a t i o n s i n v o l v e d i n an i n t e r a c t i o n s e q u e n c e — i s l e s s i m p o r t a n t t h a n p a y o f f , b u t c a n n o t be e x c l u d e d from c o n s i d e r a t i o n . Three b a s i c c a t e -g o r i e s a r e i n v o l v e d i n t h i s d i m e n s i o n , and t h e y w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n t u r n . U n i l a t e r a l a c t i o n by a n a t i o n s t a t e i n v o l v e s o n l y t h a t n a t i o n . I t s t a r g e t f o r t h e a c t i o n w i l l be e i t h e r no o t h e r n a t i o n o r a l l n a t i o n s , b u t none o f them s p e c i f i c a l l y . I t can be seen t h a t t h e meaning o f u n i l a t e r a l i s s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t from t h a t o f normal usage. T h i s c a t e g o r y o f •'-"'Examples o f t h i s t y p e o f a c t i o n would i n c l u d e t h e s e v e r a n c e o f d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s , a p r o t e s t , an agreement on a t r e a t y o f f r i e n d s h i p and c o l l a b o r a t i o n , and so f o r t h . 54 a c t i o n — a n d the o t h e r two along t h i s d i m e n s i o n — s p e c i f i c a l l y r e l a t e s t o t a r g e t of a c t i o n . Examples of u n t a r g e t e d — i . e . u n i l a t e r a l — b e h a v i o r would i n c l u d e the d e c l a r a t i o n o f new o f f s h o r e f i s h i n g l i m i t s , of a p o l i c y of non-alignment (both of these a c t i o n s have a d i r e c t p a y o f f ) , of w i l l i n g -ness t o g i v e a i d through an IGO, or a d e c l a r a t i o n of h o s t i l i t y toward c u r r e n t system norms (the l a t t e r two p o s s e s s i n g i n d i r e c t p a y o f f ) . M u l t i l a t e r a l a c t i o n - - t h a t i s , b e h a v i o r s p e c i f i c a l l y t a r g e t e d toward two or more n a t i o n s — i s somewhat s i m i l a r t o u n i l a t e r a l moves, but i s much more f r e q u e n t l y o c c u r i n g . The s i g n a t u r e o f the n u c l e a r t e s t ban t r e a t y and the m u l t i -n a t i o n e f f o r t s t o end the A r a b - I s r a e l i war (both i n d i r e c t p a y o f f a c t i o n s ) are two examples of m u l t i l a t e r a l b e h a v i o r . Other a c t i o n s of t h i s type i n c l u d e the f o r m a t i o n o f a r e g i o n a l economic a s s o c i a t i o n and c o n c e s s i o n - s e e k i n g from a group of a l l i e s (both d i r e c t p a y o f f b e h a v i o r s ) . B i l a t e r a l a c t i o n i s t a r g e t e d on o n l y one n a t i o n s t a t e , but w i t h two q u a l i f i c a t i o n s . F i r s t , a c t i v i t y which i s p a r t of a sequence impinging upon t h i r d c o u n t r y , upon an IGO, or upon incumbents of the membership environment as a whole does not c o n s t i t u t e b i l a t e r a l involvement. Such b e h a v i o r , because of i t s primary purpose, must be c l a s s i f i e d as m u l t i l a t e r a l . Second, a c t i v i t y which accords 55 w i t h t h e norms and r u l e s o f t h e system, i n l i n e w i t h e x p e c t a t i o n s o f t h e s e system v a l u e s , a l s o must be c o n c e i v e d as m u l t i l a t e r a l , a l t h o u g h t h e p r e s e n c e o r s a l i e n c e o f t h e o t h e r n a t i o n s may be o n l y i m p l i c i t . An example o f t h i s second c o n d i t i o n would be t h e p r o t e s t s a g a i n s t t h e F r e n c h n u c l e a r e x p l o s i o n i n t h e Sahara D e s e r t i n 1963. Each n a t i o n which p r o t e s t e d t h e bomb d e t o n a t i o n was t a r g e t i n g i t s c o m p l a i n t t o one o t h e r c o u n t r y , F r a n c e . Y e t , each p r o t e s t was made i n t h e c o n t e x t o f s i m i l a r a c t i o n s by a l a r g e number o f o t h e r s t a t e s , and so i n terms o f i t s meaning c o n s t i t u t e d m u l t i l a t e r a l a c t i o n . These two q u a l i f i -c a t i o n s make narrow t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f b i l a t e r a l a c t i o n , b u t make more ea s y t h e o p e r a t i o n a l ! z a t i o n o f t h e c o n c e p t s o f s e l f - and s y s t e m - o r i e n t a t i o n . T a b l e I i n d i c a t e s t h e t e n d e n c i e s t o s e l f - o r s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r a c r o s s t h e two d i m e n s i o n s . A l l d i r e c t p a y o f f a c t i o n s , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e d e f i n i t i o n s o f a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n s , n e t g a i n , and p r i m a r y p urpose o f th e a c t o r , a r e by n a t u r e s e l f - o r i e n t e d . I n d i r e c t p a y o f f a c t i o n s b e t r a y system o r i e n t a t i o n ("environmental s u s c e p t i -b i l i t y " ) w i t h r e s p e c t t o m u l t i l a t e r a l and u n i l a t e r a l a c -t i v i t y , b u t n o t t o b i l a t e r a l b e h a v i o r , as i t has been d e f i n e d h e r e . 56 An example might demonstrate t h i s l a s t p o i n t . "Gunboat diplomacy" i s a type of b i l a t e r a l i n d i r e c t p a y o f f b e h a v i o r which o b v i o u s l y i s s e l f - i n t e r e s t e d . The U n i t e d S t a t e s used t h i s technique i n the s a i l - p a s t o f Santo Domingo. Here, o n l y one n a t i o n was t a r g e t e d ; the a c t i o n c l e a r l y was d i r e c t e d toward the U n i t e d S t a t e s ' environment. The U n i t e d S t a t e s was concerned t o keep i t s immediate geo-g r a p h i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t — t h e "Caribbean L a k e " — h o s p i t a b l e . The a c t i o n ' s primary purpose had n o t h i n g t o do w i t h the i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system as such, and thus was s e l f -o r i e n t e d . I f b i l a t e r a l involvement i s o n l y the f i r s t b e h a v i o r i n a broader sequence, or i s s p e c i f i c a l l y o r i e n t e d toward the 'wider c i r c l e ' , i t i s s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d , through i t s m u l t i l a t e r a l c o n n o t a t i o n s . For example, S o v i e t a i d t o A l g e r i a was b i l a t e r a l , and had i n d i r e c t p a y o f f . U n l i k e 'gunboat d i p l o m a c y 1 , however, the a i d a c t i o n was undertaken w i t h a broader p e r s p e c t i v e than mere h e l p t o a new n a t i o n which might be a p o t e n t i a l a l l y ; i t was undertaken as p a r t of the S o v i e t s ' c o n t i n u i n g p o l i c y of showing f r i e n d s h i p t o the Arab w o r l d , t o preserve the p a t t e r n of r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h i n the membership environment. I t thus counts as system-oriented a c t i o n , because of the i m p l i c i t m u l t i -l a t e r a l r e f e r e n t . We have, t h e n , t h e two d i m e n s i o n s b a s e d on two under-l y i n g c o n c e p t s t o d e t e r m i n e whether an a c t i v i t y i s system-o r s e l f - o r i e n t e d . The d i m e n s i o n o f p a y o f f i s t h e more r e l e v a n t , b u t number o f n a t i o n s c u t s a c r o s s t h i s f a c t o r , as we have seen, t o j u s t i f y i t s use as a second d i m e n s i o n . The d e f i n i t i o n i s f a r from p e r f e c t l y o p e r a t i o n a l , because s p e c i f i c c a s e s might n o t a d e q u a t e l y be c o v e r e d , and because judgement i s r e q u i r e d i n a p p l y i n g some o f t h e c r i t e r i a f o r d e c i s i o n . I t i s a b e g i n n i n g , however, toward a f u l l e r and more r e l i a b l e method o f c l a s s i f y i n g b e h a v i o r s . C o d i n g P r o c e d u r e Because t h e a n a l y s i s o f d a t a depended h e a v i l y on t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f c o d i n g , t h e r e s e a r c h e r engaged two p a n e l s o f c o d e r s t o do t h i s w o r k . 1 6 One p a n e l c o m p r i s e d two g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, each w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e t r a i n i n g i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s t h e o r y . The second p a n e l was composed o f two s e n i o r u n d e r g r a d u a t e s a t t h e same u n i v e r s i t y , each w i t h e x t e n s i v e , b u t more sub-s t a n t i v e , t r a i n i n g i n t h e s u b j e c t . The two members o f each p a n e l worked t o g e t h e r , r a t h e r t h a n s e p a r a t e l y , i n r e a c h i n g a c o d i n g d e c i s i o n . Each o f t h e p a n e l s was asked t o c o n s i d e r •••"Because o f t h e r e s e a r c h e r ' s i n e x p e r i e n c e , t h e method o f c o d i n g was weak i n some r e s p e c t s . The p r o c e d u r e which was f o l l o w e d makes m e a n i n g l e s s any c a l c u l a t i o n s as t o r e l i a b i l i t y , a l t h o u g h t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r i s c o n f i d e n t t h a t t h e d a t a u l t i -m a t e l y were coded i n a v a l i d manner. These c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a r e d i s c u s s e d i n the c o n c l u d i n g c h a p t e r . 58 t h e i n s t r u c t i o n s c o n t a i n e d i n Appendix C, and t o move o p e r a t i o n a l l y t o a p p l y them t o each b e h a v i o r a l e n t r y f o r each n a t i o n i n t h e sample. Each p a n e l was i n f o r m e d t h a t i t c o u l d b r i n g t o b e a r i t s members' knowledge on any b e h a v i o r , b u t t h a t no r e f e r e n c e s o r f u r t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s were t o be c o n s u l t e d . The r e a s o n i n g i n t h i s l a s t i n s t r u c t i o n a r o s e from t h e c o n c e r n o f t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o d i s c o v e r t h e adequacy o f news i n d e x e n t r i e s : t o move f o r m a l l y beyond what t h o s e e n t r i e s c o n t a i n e d would be t o re d u c e t h e v a l u e o f t h e p r o j e c t . To c a l l upon t h e g e n e r a l knowledge o f a t r a i n e d s t u d e n t o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s was f e l t t o be l e g i t i m a t e , however, because any r e p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s s t u d y u n d o u b t e d l y would draw upon s i m i l a r l y - q u a l i f i e d c o d e r s . P r o c e d u r e s used i n t h e c o d i n g p r o c e s s were as f o l l o w s . The i n v e s t i g a t o r met w i t h t h e two members o f P a n e l A, a l l o w e d them t o r e a d t h e i r i n s t r u c t i o n s , t h e n asked whether t h e y had any q u e s t i o n s . The r e s e a r c h e r t h e n l e f t t h e two c o d e r s t o work t o g e t h e r on t h e d a t a . The same 1 7 sequence was f o l l o w e d w i t h the two members o f P a n e l B. ' The two c o d i n g s h e e t s were the n compared, and a l l d i s a -greements between t h e p a n e l s were l i s t e d . F i n a l l y , a j o i n t m e e t i n g o f a l l c o d e r s was h e l d by t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o r e s o l v e Care was t a k e n t o g i v e e x a c t l y t h e same i n f o r m a t i o n t o t h e second p a n e l as was g i v e n t o t h e f i r s t . 59 t h e d i s a g r e e m e n t s . Where a p p l i c a b l e , t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r each d e c i s i o n was s t a t e d by t h e p a n e l s . Twelve c o d i n g r u l e s emerged from t h i s m e e t i n g ; t h e s e a r e l i s t e d i n Appendix C, a l o n g w i t h a b r i e f a n a l y s i s o f t h e a r e a s o f d i s a g r e e m e n t . S t a t i s t i c a l P r o c e d u r e s Two s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s were p e r f o r m e d on t h e d a t a under t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s ; o n l y one o f t h e s e t e s t s was a p p l i e d t o the a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s . A f t e r f i n a l c o d i n g s c o r e s were computed f o r each sample c o u n t r y by d i v i d i n g i t s t o t a l number o f c o u n t e d b e h a v i o r s i n t o t h e t o t a l number o f system-coded a c t i o n s . The r e s u l t was a p e r c e n t a g e v a l u e , c o n s t i t u t i n g t h e i n t e r v a l l e v e l o f measurement. The W i l c o x o n m a t c h e d - p a i r s s i g n e d - r a n k s t e s t was a p p l i e d t o t h e d a t a under b o t h h y p o t h e s e s , because t h e W i l c o x o n t e s t i s a good a p p r o x i m a t i o n t o t h e s t r o n g e r r a n d o m i z a t i o n t e s t f o r matched p a i r s . The d e c i s i o n was made t o seek s i g n i f i c a n c e a t t h e .05 l e v e l , o n e - t a i l e d because t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e between the p a i r e d c o u n t r i e s was p r e d i c t e d under t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s . The power o f t h e W i l c o x o n t e s t i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y .95, i f t h e sample i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be randomly s e l e c t e d w i t h a t h e o r e t i c a l l y c o n t i n u o u s d i s t r i b u t i o n . 1 9 1 8 S e e S i d n e y S i e g e l , N o n p a r a m e t r i c S t a t i s t i c s f o r t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s (New York: M c G r a w - H i l l , 1956), p. 93, f o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between the two t e s t s . 1 9 I b i d . A f a i r l y p e r s u a s i v e argument c o u l d be f o r -m u l a t e d t o f a v o r t h e s e assumptions, a l t h o u g h i t w i l l n o t be done h e r e . 60 The s t r o n g e r b u t more cumbersome r a n d o m i z a t i o n t e s t f o r matched p a i r s was a p p l i e d t o t h e d a t a under t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s t o g a i n an e x a c t s i g n i f i c a n c e f i g u r e . The second t e s t was n o t p e r f o r m e d on t h e d a t a from t h e a l t e r -n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s because an e x a c t v a l u e was n o t o f i n t e r e s t . We t u r n now t o t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t . S u p p o r t f o r t h e hy p o t h e s e s w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d f i r s t , b e f o r e a t t e n t i o n i s p a i d t o m e t h o d o l o g i c a l q u e s t i o n s . The l a t t e r t y p e o f q u e s t i o n d e a l s p r i m a r i l y w i t h s o u r c e b i a s f o r t h e b e h a v i o r a l d a t a , t h e n w i t h c o d i n g . CHAPTER V RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH S u b s t a n t i v e R e s u l t s To t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o c e d u r e con-f e r r e d any v a l i d i t y on t h e r e s u l t s , s t r o n g s u p p o r t was fo u n d f o r t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s . The r a n d o m i z a t i o n t e s t f o r matched p a i r s i n d i c a t e d a s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l o f .0127. E i g h t o f t h e t e n p a i r s d i s p l a y e d t h e p r e d i c t e d d i r e c t i o n o f d i f f e r e n c e s — a s i n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e I I - - a n d u s u a l l y d i d so by q u i t e l a r g e v a l u e s . The two d e v i a n t p a i r s ( F i n l a n d / B u l g a r i a and Mexico/Ghana) r a n k e d w i t h i n t h e f i f t y - f i f t h p e r c e n t i l e b a s e d on r a n k e d — b u t u n s i g n e d — d i f f e r e n c e s c o r e s (the l o g i c o f the W i l c o x o n t e s t ) . Sample s e l e c t i o n was s u c c e s s f u l i n t h a t no s e r i o u s d i s t o r t i o n i n p e r c e n t a g e s c o r e s o c c u r r e d as a r e s u l t o f an N w i t h i n any p a i r b e i n g t o o s m a l l . Sudan, w i t h N=8, had the s m a l l e s t number o f coded b e h a v i o r s o f any n a t i o n i n t h e sample. E t h i o p i a , i t s p a i r , had a s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r s c o r e (37.5%) s u f f i c i e n t l y low t h a t an i n c r e a s e o f s i x a c t i o n s — n o n e o f them s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d - - w o u l d be r e q u i r e d t o change Sudan's p o s i t i o n w i t h i n t h e s e t . The B r a z i l / T u r k e y p a i r a t f i r s t g l a n c e i n d i c a t e s p o s s i b l e d i s t o r t i o n , b u t i t was n o t s e v e r e . Turkey ( i n v o l v e d i n 62 TABLE I I SAMPLE NATION STATES IN PAIRED FORMATION, CONTROLLING FOR DE LEVEL (±1 0 % ) , AND TESTING FOR SYSTEM-ORIENTED BEHAVIOR BY MANIPULATING INDEPENDENT VARIABLE, IGO MEMBERSHIPS DEs IGOs CD -P rd -P cn fl O •H -p rd S3 tn M -P 1—1 rd rd e fl -P 0 o -H H i—1 •H QA CU M CP rd •H 0 CD O Q IS CD TJ O O o o C H to oo O cr> •H r - l > rd .f l CD I e CD -P CO rd O CD -P fl CD •rl O CD +J CD >1 03 M-t O -P fl CD O CD u o •H > rd ,fl CD £1 •rl ,fl O o - H CD U fl CD U CD cn m •H Q H O AS fl rd fl Cn •H cn -P fl CD 0 M Cr1 -P •rl cn M e x i c o 44 186 15 39 10 6 60.00 -6.67* 1 -1.0* Ghana 42 212 12 13 15 10 66.67 Y u g o s l a v i a 56 272 11 33 25 11 44.00 10.67 2 C z e ch o s 1 o v a k i a 57 422 9 24 15 5 33.33 A u s t r a l i a 34 280 15 31 23 6 26.09 12.76 3 Morocco 32 129 12 27 30 4 13.33 I r a n 36 248 11 15 12 3 25.00 18.33 4 S a u d i A r a b i a 34 155 7 9 15 1 6.67 F i n l a n d 48 139 12 31 13 4 30.77 -19.23* 5.5 -5.5* B u l g a r i a 47 247 9 22 12 6 50.00 P h i l i p p i n e s 26 154 13 16 16 8 50.00 19.23 5.5 N i g e r i a 26 151 10 14 13 4 30.77 Sweden 64 237 14 42 14 6 42.86 24.68 7 I s r a e l 64 292 10 24 11 2 18.18 Sudan 27 93 12 13 8 5 62.50 25.00 8 E t h i o p i a 25 81 11 5 16 6 37.50 Canada 55 388 17 32 19 9 47.37 28.32 9 P o l a n d 55 386 12 30 21 4 19.05 B r a z i l 54 264 17 36 15 5 33.33 28.33 10 Turkey. 54 392 12 39 20 1 5.00 T = 6.5; c r i t i c a l T a t .025, o n e - t a i l e d , i s 8. 63 t h e Cyprus d i s p u t e i n 1963) had a l a r g e number o f b e h a v i o r s (N=20), o n l y one o f which was coded as s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d . However, i t s p a i r — B r a z i l , w i t h N=15—would r e q u i r e e i g h t y -f i v e more a c t i o n s , none o f them s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d , t o a f f e c t t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e between the two n a t i o n s . One can e n t e r t a i n r e a s o n a b l e c o n f i d e n c e , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e d i s t o r t i o n s i n p e r c e n t a g e s c o r e s a r e n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o change any r e a l d i f f e r e n c e between p a i r s . The a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s - - a s i n d i c a t e d by T a b l e I I I — was n o t s u p p o r t e d by t h e d a t a . The W i l c o x o n T v a l u e o b t a i n e d from t h e t e s t i n g p r o c e d u r e was q u i t e d i s t a n t from t h e c r i t i c a l v a l u e r e q u i r e d , and f u r t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t i n g was n o t i n d i c a t e d on t h i s group o f d a t a . The r e s u l t s enumerated i n T a b l e I I I showed n o t o n l y a l a c k o f s i g n i f i c a n c e , b u t a l s o d i s p l a y e d a t e n d e n c y c o u n t e r t o t h e p r e d i c t e d d i r e c t i o n o f d i f f e r e n c e s . T h a t i s , n a t i o n s w i t h a h i g h e r l e v e l o f DEs t e n d e d t o e x h i b i t a s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n o f s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r s t h a n n a t i o n s w i t h a lower l e v e l o f DEs, IGO memberships b e i n g t h e same. T h i s tendency w i l l be c o n s i d -e r e d i n more d e t a i l i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n . F o r t h e moment, however, we may c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e and t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e under the e x p e r i m e n t a l h y p o t h e s i s may have some v a l i d i t y . 64 TABLE I I I SAMPLE NATION STATES IN PAIRED FORMATION, CONTROLLING FOR IGO MEMBERSHIPS (±10 % ) , AND TESTING FOR SYSTEM-ORIENTED BEHAVIOR BY MANIPULATING INDEPENDENT VARIABLE, DE LEVEL (ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS) -P a +> CO a o •H 4J cd IGOs o o -H Cn Pi •H CQ a i-i 1 41 co Cn D E S 0 <4H <4H 1 I fi CD CD £| > cd HH ,_! CD" CL] CD -H rH tQ cn O CQ -P O CD O Q Xi >i w -P U CQ rt +J O rH cd S 0 >i CD CQ •P CD 0 •H Pi rd fi -H r o CQ +) ^ U rH ^ CD -P 0 rH > l_> fl 0 CD CD CD •H rH td cd cr> m CD -H O 4J m i X C71 a &< -P X! rH O -H > U CQ tH m a CD cd •H 0 CD M cd CD >t 0 •H w cd cd U o Q EH Xi 13 O X l P4 CO -H P Q Pi MH Ghana 12 13 42 212 15 10 66.67 4.17 1 1 Sudan 12 13 27 93 8 5 62.50 I r a n 11 15 36 248 12 3 25.00 -5.77 2 N i g e r i a 10 14 26 151 13 4 30.77 U n i t e d Arab R. 15 28 66 541 31 10 32.26 6.17 3 3 A u s t r a l i a 15 31 34 280 23 6 26.09 P o l a n d 12 30 55 386 21 4 19.05 -11.72 4 F i n l a n d 12 31 48 139 13 4 30.77 C z e c h o s l o v a k i a 9 24 47 422 15 5 33.33 -16.67 5 B u l g a r i a 9 22 47 247 12 6 50.00 Sweden 14 42 64 237 14 6 42.86 -17.14 6 Mexico 15 39 44 186 10 6 60.00 I n d i a 17 33 64 467 34 4 11.76 -21.57 7 B r a z i l 17 36 54 264 15 5 33.33 A r g e n t i n a 12 36 60 301 10 3 30.00 25.00 8 8 Turkey- 12 39 54 392 20 1 5.00 S a u d i A r a b i a 7 9 34 155 15 1 6.67 -26.66 9 M a l i 7 10 18 55 6 2 33.33 Japan 17 34 71 638 31 6 19.35 -28.02 10 Canada 17 ,•32 55 388 19 9 47.37 T = 12; c r i t i c a l v a l u e i s 8 a t .025 l e v e l , o n e - t a i l e d , o r .05 l e v e l , t w o - t a i l e d . Under t h e a l t e r n a t i v e h y p o t h e s i s , t h e number o f coded b e h a v i o r s on which th e s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d p e r c e n t a g e s c o r e s a r e b a s e d seems t o be adequate f o r each sample n a t i o n . Two s t a t e s have an N o f l e s s t h a n t e n , Sudan (N=8, p a i r e d w i t h Ghana, N=15) and M a l i (N=6, p a i r e d w i t h S a u d i A r a b i a , N=15). I n each c a s e , however, t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e c o u n t r i e s i n each p a i r i s s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e t o make i r r e l e v a n t any c o n c e r n about s i g n i f i c a n t d i s t o r t i o n a r i s i n g from an i n s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e number o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r s . D e s p i t e t h e s t r o n g s t a t i s t i c a l s u p p o r t g i v e n t o t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s , s u b s t a n t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s c a n n o t be u n d e r t a k e n w i t h any g r e a t d e g r e e o f c o n -f i d e n c e . The r e a s o n s f o r t h i s c o n d i t i o n s a r e t h r e e . F i r s t , d e s p i t e t h e s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s f o r chance o c c u r r e n c e , t h e r e s e a r c h e r f e e l s t h a t p a i r s e l e c t i o n , t h r o u g h manipu-l a t i o n , might be so a r r a n g e d t h a t an i n s i g n i f i c a n t o r perhaps even o p p o s i t e r e s u l t might o c c u r . Second, the p o s s i b i l i t y o f a g r e a t degree o f s y s t e m a t i c e r r o r i n t h e b e h a v i o r a l d a t a s o u r c e s cannot be r u l e d o u t . T h i r d , c o d i n g — a l t h o u g h p r o b a b l y v a l i d , as m e n t i o n e d — w a s n o t r e l i a b l e because o f t h e i n s u f f i c i e n c y o f t h e p r o c e d u r e and d e f i n i -t i o n s used. 66 Problem: Sampling W i t h r e s p e c t t o the f i r s t f a c t o r , p a i r s e l e c t i o n , a g l a n c e a t t h e n a t i o n s used i n t h e r e s e a r c h and a l t e r n a -t i v e h y p o t h e s e s ( T a b l e s I I and I I I ) i n d i c a t e s t h a t many o f the c o u n t r i e s m i g h t be used i n t e r c h a n g e a b l y i n o t h e r p a i r s . F o r example, B r a z i l , T urkey, Canada, P o l a n d , C z e c h o s l o v a k i a , Y u g o s l a v i a , and perhaps A r g e n t i n a m ight be grouped d i f f e r -e n t l y w i t h d i f f e r e n t e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s u l t s . The same st a t e m e n t a p p l i e s t o P h i l i p p i n e s , N i g e r i a , Sudan, E t h i o p i a , and p e r h a p s A u s t r a l i a . To t h e g r e a t e s t p o s s i b l e e x t e n t , t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r t r i e d t o m a t c h — a c c o r d i n g t o DE s c o r e s — n a t i o n s which were c l o s e l y comparable on an i n t u i t i v e o r s u b j e c t i v e b a s i s , and f e e l s o v e r a l l t h a t he suc c e e d e d . However, t h i s s h o u l d n o t o b s c u r e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g p a i r s o f sample n a t i o n s c o n s t i t u t e o n l y one o f many p o s s i b l e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s , a l l o f which would be e q u a l l y l e g i t i m a t e under t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n as i t i s s t a t e d . We s h a l l r e t u r n t o t h i s p r o b l e m i n t h e f i n a l c h a p t e r . Problem: B i a s e d Data? Source b i a s , d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r as a p o s s i b i l i t y , w a r r a n t s f u r t h e r a t t e n t i o n h e r e . As t h e r e s e a r c h e r worked w i t h t h e d a t a , t h e n a g g i n g b e l i e f a r o s e t h a t t o compare n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r based o n l y on the r e p o r t s o f two s o u r c e s m i ght n o t be a l e g i t i m a t e o p e r a t i o n : a n o t i c e a b l e p r e p o n -derance o f space was d e v o t e d , i n each o f t h e two i n d e x e s , 67 t o areas of the w o r l d and t o i s s u e s which were of t r a d i -t i o n a l o r s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t t o the c o u n t r i e s of p u b l i c a t i o n . Once coding o p e r a t i o n s were completed, the problem of source b i a s r e q u i r e d t e s t i n g . A p o s s i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p was noted between the tendency of n a t i o n s 1 s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d scores t o i n c r e a s e as t h e i r s i z e and t o t a l number of be-h a v i o r s decreased. A Spearman rank ord e r c o r r e l a t i o n was performed between the sys t e m - o r i e n t e d percentage s c o r e s , on the one hand, and t o t a l space devoted i n each r e s p e c t i v e index t o the sample n a t i o n s , on the o t h e r . D e t a i l s of t h i s t e s t and some c o n c l u s i o n s on the b i a s e s of each source are d i s c u s s e d i n Appendix E. The Spearman ( r s ) c o e f f i c i e n t between the New York Times Index coverage and system-o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r scores was .390, a v a l u e s i g n i f i c a n t a t the .025 l e v e l . K e e s i n g ' s , t e s t e d the same way, produced a c o e f f i c i e n t of .431, a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t a t the .025 l e v e l . A number of p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s emerge w i t h r e s p e c t t o these c o r r e l a t i o n r e s u l t s . F i r s t , t h e r e might be no r e p o r t i n g b i a s a t a l l . That i s , s m a l l e r n a t i o n s might depend upon the system f o r s u r v i v a l , and thus i n f a c t e x h i b i t p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y more system-oriented a c t i o n s than l a r g e r n a t i o n s . From a d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e (under the same assumption t h a t the indexes g i v e an accurate r e p r e s e n -t a t i o n of the events of importance) s p e c i f i c b e h a v i o r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s might a t t a c h t o s p e c i f i c types of n a t i o n s . 68 Perhaps o n l y t h e l a r g e r n a t i o n s become i n v o l v e d i n s e l f -o r i e n t e d , " s h o p k e e p i n g " i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r c o u r s e ; t h a t t h e s m a l l n a t i o n s , i n o t h e r words, escape t h e volume and t y p e o f d a y - t o - d a y t r a n s a c t i o n s which n e c e s s a r i l y a r e s e l f - o r i e n t e d . These e x p l a n a t i o n s would i n d i c a t e no a p p r e c i a b l e s o u r c e b i a s f o r t h e b e h a v i o r a l d a t a . O t h e r p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s e x i s t , however. Most p r o b a b l e i s t h e l i k e l i h o o d t h a t t h e two s o u r c e s — w h i c h a r e w r i t t e n f o r s p e c i f i c r e a d e r s h i p s , a f t e r a l l — t e n d t o i g n o r e t h e i n t e r - n a t i o n news o f p u r e l y l o c a l i n t e r e s t w i t h i n t h e s m a l l e r c o u n t r i e s , and r e p o r t o n l y t h a t w h i c h f i t s i n t o t h e l a y "Western" p o l i t i c a l v a l u e systems and i n t e r e s t s . I f t h i s were t r u e , news o f s y s t e m - s u p p o r t i v e and s y s t e m - t h r e a t e n i n g a c t i o n s c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o appear w i t h g r e a t e r f r e q u e n c y t h a n i t e m s which d e a l w i t h m a t t e r s o f p u r e l y l o c a l o r r e g i o n a l i n t e r e s t . I f e m p i r i c a l s u p p o r t c o u l d be found f o r t h i s n o t i o n , s o u r c e b i a s c o u l d be a s e r i o u s d e t r i m e n t t o t h e use o f the i n d e x e s f o r many r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g t h e one p u r s u e d h e r e . In t h i s p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t , o n l y a s m a l l amount o f doubt i s c a s t upon the e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s u l t s . E x a m i n a t i o n o f T a b l e IV i n d i c a t e s t h a t , a l t h o u g h t h e rank o r d e r s on space d e v o t e d by t h e Times i n d e x and K e e s i n g ' s a r e o f t e n d i s c r e p a n t between sample p a i r s (under th e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s ) , t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e d i s c r e p a n c i e s run c o u n t e r t o t h e d i r e c t i o n which would j u s t i f y c o n c e r n . That i s , i n a l l b u t two c a s e s t h e r e seems t o be l i t t l e danger t h a t TABLE IV COMPARISON OF RESULTS UNDER THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS WITH RANK DISCREPANCIES IN DATA SOURCE COVERAGE NATION SCORE TIMES KEESING S COMMENTS A u s t r a l i a Morocco 26.09* 13.33 11* 116 23 18* Because o f s p l i t be-tween s o u r c e s , and d i s c r e p a n c i e s s m a l l , p r o b a b l y l i t t l e c o n t a m i n a t i o n . B r a z i l 33.33* 20 21* Turkey- 5.00 13* 22 Same as above. Canada P o l a n d 47.37* 19.05 24 17* 24 10* I d e a l s i t u a t i o n F i n l a n d B u l g a r i a 30. 77 50.00* 8 6* 11* 13 Ranks c l o s e t o g e t h e r . L i t t l e a p p a r e n t p r o -blem. I r a n S a u d i A r a b i a 25.00* 6.67 12 3* 15 4* I d e a l Mexico Ghana 60.00 66.67* 14 5* 9 6* D i s c r e p a n c i e s g r e a t on one s o u r c e , u n i f o r m b i a s e s match h i g h s c o r e . P r o b a b l e c o n t a m i n a t i o n . P h i l l i p p i n e s N i g e r i a 50.00* 30.77 7 4* 5* 16 P o s s i b l e c o n t a m i n a t i o n , b u t g r e a t d e t a i l o f news i n Times which was prime s o u r c e Sudan E t h i o p i a 62.50* 37.50 2* 9 1* 3 W i t h such d i s c r e p a n t s c o r e s and c l o s e r a n k s , l i t t l e p r o b l e m seen. Sweden I s r a e l 42.86* 18.18 10* 21 7 * 19 P r o b a b l e c o n t a m i n a t i o n . More ' d e t a i l ' s t o r i e s l i s t e d f o r I s r a e l . Y u g o s l a v i a C z e c h o s l o v a k i a 44.00* 33.33 23 15* 20 12* I d e a l . No l i k e l y p r o b l e m a r i s i n g from s o u r c e b i a s . S c o r e s marked w i t h a s t e r i s k a r e t h e h i g h ones f o r t h e p a x r . Ranks marked w i t h a s t e r i s k a r e t h e low ones f o r each p a i r . Appearance o f t h r e e a s t e r i s k s on the same l i n e i n d i c a t e s g r e a t e r p o s s i b i l i t y o f s o u r c e c o n t a m i n a t i o n o f r e s u l t s . 69 the results are contaminated by data source. The two pairs where this bias i s probable are Mexico/Ghana and Sweden/ Israel. In each case, the country with the higher system-oriented behavior score has a lower rank, across both sources, than the other nation in the pair. The few other appearances of undesired rank-score relationships seems not to threaten the integrity of the pair differences to any significant degree, as noted in the 'comments' column i n the table. Problem: Coding The third problem area which casts possible doubt upon the experimental results i s coding. Because of the investigator's inexperience with this operation, enough errors were made i n the procedure to render suspect the coding r e l i a b i l i t y value obtained. These errors were the following. F i r s t , the re-searcher informed the coders of the hypothesis which he was testing. While the coders had no indication of pairing configurations or IGO or DE totals, coding bias as a result of this mistake i s possible. Second, the written instructions to coders were in the wrong form. More operational definitions and many examples should have been included in the instructions; the rambling, essay type of format should have been changed. Further, some 70 o f the w o r d i n g i n t h e i n s t r u c t i o n s c o u l d l e a v e doubt i n t h e r e a d e r ' s mind as t o s p e c i f i c a l l y what was meant. T h i r d , t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r asked t h e c o d e r s t o make many d e c i s i o n s which t h e r e s e a r c h e r , h i m s e l f , s h o u l d have made. The most g l a r i n g o m i s s i o n i n t h i s r e s p e c t i s a d e f i n i t i o n o f 'subsequent b e h a v i o r s ' (an o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n d i d emerge, as shown i n t h e A p p e n d i x ) . O t h e r o m i s s i o n s i n c l u d e d g u i d a n c e on t h e v e r a c i t y o f c o n f l i c t i n g c h a r g e s and c l a i m s , and an o p e r a t i o n a l s t a t e m e n t w i t h examples on what c o n s t i -t u t e s i n t e r - n a t i o n p o l i t i c a l b e h a v i o r , and what s h o u l d be e x c l u d e d from c o d i n g . F o u r t h , t h e c o d e r s s h o u l d have worked i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f each o t h e r , n o t i n p a i r s . Each p a n e l ' s members r e p o r t e d t h a t t h e y t e n d e d , w h i l e p r o c e s s i n g the 5 81 b e h a v i o r a l e n t r i e s , t o g e n e r a t e a group f e e l i n g d u r i n g the t h r e e hours r e q u i r e d f o r the t a s k . Among a l l f o u r c o d e r s , i . e . each o f t h e two p a i r s o f c o d e r s , t h e r e was t o t a l agreement on o n l y 460 o f t h e 5 81 e n t r i e s . The c o d i n g r e l i a b i l i t y v a l u e f o r t o t a l agreement w i t h r e s p e c t t o b o t h d e c i s i o n s ( i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , t h e n c a t e -g o r i z a t i o n ) i s .792, ba s e d on t h e f o r m u l a 2(number o f e n t r i e s on which agreement) C.R. = t o t a l d e c i s i o n s : P a n e l A + P a n e l B - 2(4&0) ~ 2(581) U s i n g the same f o r m u l a , the C.R. v a l u e f o r p e r f e c t a g r e e -ment on i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o n l y (519 out o f t h e 581 e n t r i e s ) i s 71 . 893. The C R . c o e f f i c i e n t f o r p e r f e c t agreement on c a t e -g o r i z a t i o n o n l y (426 o u t o f 485) i s .878. The PI v a l u e f o r p e r f e c t agreement on b o t h d e c i s i o n s i s low: .595. The f o r m u l a on which t h i s f i g u r e i s ba s e d i s : % Agreement a c h i e v e d - % E x p e c t e d by Chance PI = 1 - % e x p e c t e d by chance C a l c u l a t i o n s o f v a l u e s p l u g g e d i n t o t h i s f o r m u l a a r e shown i n T a b l e V. TABLE V CALCULATIONS FOR PI VALUE 460 (1) P e r c e n t agreement a c h i e v e d ( a l l d e c i s i o n s ) : "tjgy = '792 (2) P e r c e n t a g e o f agreements e x p e c t e d by chance = .486 C o d i n g D e c i s i o n Number o u t o f Coded 581 (A) . . .In D e c i m a l Form... Squared S y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r 138 .238 .057 S e l f - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r 374 .644 .415 N o t ' c o u n t e d , i r r e l e v a n t 69 .119 .014 Z= 581 .486 (A) The t o t a l s i n t h i s column a r e based on the f i n a l d e c i s i o n s r e a c h e d a t t h e j o i n t m e e t i n g o f a l l c o d e r s w i t h t h e r e s e a r c h e r . T h i s m e e t i n g was the c u l m i n a -t i o n o f t h e c o d i n g p r o c e d u r e , and r e s o l v e d a l l d i s a g r e e m e n t s between the two p a n e l s . 72 A breakdown o f t y p e s o f e r r o r made by each p a n e l i s i n c l u d e d i n Appendix C. Most d i s a g r e e m e n t s o f i n t e r e s t (as d i s p l a y e d i n t h e f i g u r e i n t h e Appendix) have been d i s c u s s e d i n g e n e r a l terms above. A l m o s t a l l t h e p r o m i n -e n t t y p e s o f e r r o r c o u l d have been a v o i d e d had t h e r e -s e a r c h e r d e s i g n e d c o d i n g p r o c e d u r e s c o m p e t e n t l y . Three s p e c i f i c c a t e g o r i e s o f b e h a v i o r d e s e r v e s p e c i a l comment. V i s i t s by heads o f s t a t e and e m i s s a r i e s c a u s e d a g r e a t d e a l o f t r o u b l e t o t h e c o d e r s , b o t h w i t h r e s p e c t t o i n c l u s i o n and t o c a t e g o r i z a t i o n . P a r t o f t h i s p r o b l e m can be a t t r i b u t e d t o i n s u f f i c e n t i n s t r u c t i o n s , b u t n o t a l l o f i t . The o c c u r r e n c e s o f v i s i t s were w e l l r e p o r t e d i n t h e i n d e x e s , b u t t h e c o n t e n t o f t a l k s o r r e a s o n s f o r t h e v i s i t s u s u a l l y were n o t . As a r e s u l t , c o d e r s f r e q u e n t l y had i n s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n on which t o base a d e c i s i o n . T h i s t y p e o f b e h a v i o r i s one a r e a where the i n d e x e s a r e l e s s t h a n adequate t o t h e p u r p o s e - - a t l e a s t , t o t h e purpose p u r s u e d i n t h i s p r o j e c t . The second c a t e g o r y o f a c t i o n w hich p r o d u c e d an i n o r d i n a t e l y l a r g e number o f d i s a g r e e m e n t s i s c o n f l i c t b e h a v i o r (wars and d i s p u t e s ) . Here, t h e main problem c e n t r e d on i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . What a c t i o n s c o n s t i t u t e a new i n p u t i n t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system, and what subsequent a c t i o n s change n o t h i n g ? The c o d e r s , a t t h e j o i n t m e e t i n g , agreed t h a t each a c t i o n a t t h e d i p l o m a t i c 73 l e v e l would c o n s t i t u t e a s e p a r a t e b e h a v i o r t o be i n c l u d e d , b u t t h i s s t i l l l e a v e s u n s o l v e d t h e i n c l u s i o n o f s i g n i f i c a n t m i l i t a r y a c t i o n s . The d e c i s i o n may perhaps be t h e b e s t available."'" But an attempt t o e s t a b l i s h more s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i a would be w o r t h w h i l e . Whether t h e attempt c o u l d be s u c c e s s f u l i s i n d e t e r m i n a t e a t t h i s p o i n t . The t h i r d and a l l i e d p r o b l e m i n v o l v e s subsequent a c t i o n s . A g a i n , t h e c o d e r s emerged w i t h a d e c i s i o n r u l e , b u t more s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i a a r e r e q u i r e d t o p r e v e n t such a h i g h i n c i d e n c e o f d i s a g r e e m e n t on t h i s t y p e o f b e h a v i o r . I n t h i s c h a p t e r , t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e p r o j e c t have been r e p o r t e d and examined, and some c o n c l u s i o n s have been o f f e r e d i n p a s s i n g . D i s c u s s i o n o f t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s and t h r e e f a c t o r s w hich c a s t some doubt on t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s u l t s has l e d t o t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f sample s e l e c t i o n , s o u r c e b i a s , and c o d i n g p r o b l e m s . A t t e n t i o n t u r n s now t o a more s y s t e m a t i c e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e p r o j e c t , and t o some p o s s i b l e a r e a s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . M c C l e l l a n d , i n h i s B e r l i n s t u d y , op. c i t . , c o u n t e d each b e h a v i o r s e p a r a t e l y , b u t h i s frame o f r e f e r e n c e was somewhat d i f f e r e n t from t h e more b r o a d n o t i o n s o f e v e n t s and b e h a v i o r s which were p u r s u e d i n t h i s p r o j e c t . CHAPTER VI CONCLUSIONS Assessment o f t h e s t u d y w i l l f o l l o w r o u g h l y t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e t h e s i s , i t s e l f . C o n s i d e r a t i o n w i l l be g i v e n , f i r s t , t o t h e r e l e v a n c e and t h e o r e t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s o f what was attempted. Then w i l l f o l l o w a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t and i t s p r o b l e m a r e a s ; f i n a l l y , a t t e n t i o n w i l l be g i v e n t o t h e c h i e f m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p r o b l e m o f t h e p r o j e c t , t h e u t i l i t y o f t h e d a t a s o u r c e s . T h e o r e t i c a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s I n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s i n v e s t i g a t o r s have "borrowed" e x t e n s i v e l y from t h e c o n c e p t u a l and s u b s t a n t i v e c o n t e n t s o f s o c i o l o g y , p s y c h o l o g y , a n t h r o p o l o g y , and economics. They have u t i l i z e d v e r y l i t t l e , however, t h e r e s u l t s o f r e s e a r c h i n t h e i r own d i s c i p l i n e , p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e . As i n d i c a t e d i n t h e f i r s t c h a p t e r , knowledge about d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n seems t o be a p p l i c a b l e t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i -t i c s as w e l l . The second a r e a o f p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e t o be "borrowed" from i s t h e g e n e r a l p o l i t i c a l systems model o f D a v i d E a s t o n , whose c o n c e p t s a r e more s a t i s f y i n g t h a n p r e -v i o u s attempts by i n t e r n a t i o n a l systems s c h o l a r s . 75 I t has been argued i n t h i s t h e s i s t h a t t h e E a s t o n i a n scheme p o s s e s s e s g r e a t u t i l i t y f o r t h e a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r n a -t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s , b o t h t o p r o v i d e a " b i g p i c t u r e " and t o d i r e c t r e s e a r c h i n t o new a r e a s . A d a p t a t i o n s t o t h e model were made n e c e s s a r y by t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s o f o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g E a s t o n ' s framework a t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l , and by t h e need t o r e c o n c i l e t h e assumptions o f t h e model w i t h r e c e n t work on t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. Because o f t h e n e c e s s i t y t o adapt t h e E a s t o n i a n model, t h e r e a s o n s and changes were g i v e n c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n — m o r e t h a n would perhaps be normal f o r a r e s e a r c h r e p o r t o f t h i s n a t u r e . A l s o d i s c u s s e d were some o f t h e new a r e a s f o r r e s e a r c h t o which t h e adapted model p o i n t s . I t i s t r u e t h a t t h e l i t e r a t u r e o f d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n and i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s m ight w e l l be s u f f i c i e n t j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t r e p o r t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s . Why, t h e n , i s t h e E a s t o n model n e c e s s a r y ? By i t s i n c l u s i v e n e s s , t h e framework d i r -e c t s a t t e n t i o n t o a r e a s o f r e s e a r c h which c a n be i n v e s t i g a t e d c o n c u r r e n t l y w i t h t h e main p r o j e c t a t hand. The p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t communications and p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n networks ("news l i n k a g e s ' ) m i ght n o t o n l y a f f e c t p a r t i c i p a t i o n , b u t a l s o t h e v e r y s t r u c t u r e o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system might be somewhat l e s s e v i d e n t w i t h o u t the systems model as 76 p r e s e n t e d h e r e . The model, f u r t h e r m o r e , r e l a t e s t h e c u r r e n t q u e s t i o n s w i t h i n t h e d i s c i p l i n e t o t h e w h o l e . 1 The model can d i r e c t t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o ask whether, f o r i n s t a n c e , s y stem s t r e s s o r c o l l a p s e i s r e l a t e d t o communications and p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n ; i t can a l s o f o s t e r more i n c l u s i v e q u e s t i o n s l i k e t h e r o l e n o n - a l i g n e d , d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n p r o v i d i n g s t a b i l i t y t o system o p e r a t i o n . Even though the model may l e a d t o new q u e s t i o n s , i t must a l s o l e n d i t s e l f t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n . T h i s has been a c c o m p l i s h e d i n t h i s t h e s i s , a l t h o u g h t h e e x t e n t o f o p e r a -t i o n a l i z a t i o n i s v e r y s m a l l . The u t i l i t y o f t h e a d a p t a t i o n s c a n n o t y e t be j u d g e d , e x c e p t on a b a s i s o f p o t e n t i a l . More o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n s a r e r e q u i r e d . F o r example, o p e r a -t i o n a l a t t e n t i o n needs t o be d e v o t e d t o system s u p p o r t s , norms and r u l e s , t o r o l e s as d i s c u s s e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e a d a p t e d model, and t o t h e n o t i o n o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s f o r a c t i o n i n the i n t e r n a t i o n a l a r e n a . The i n v e s t i g a t o r d i d n o t u n d e r t a k e t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e t h e e n t i r e model's components and i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s because t o do so would i n v o l v e an e x t r a o r d i n a r y amount o f time which might be s p e n t n e e d l e s s l y . I f t h e e n t i r e model i s s k e t c h e d "'"Questions i n c l u d e t h e s e : I s t h e r e a c o n t i n u o u s system: Who a r e t h e a c t o r s ? What a r e t h e e f f e c t s o f IGOs, f o r e i g n a i d programs, and i n t e r n a t i o n a l peace f o r c e s ? I s t h e contemporary system r e a l l y any d i f f e r e n t from the p r e -war system?, and so f o r t h . 77 i n , i t s f e a t u r e s can be added t o as e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s u n d e r t a k e n on t h e q u e s t i o n s w hich i t p o s e s . The r e -s e a r c h e r b e l i e v e s as a r e s u l t o f t h i s p i l o t s t u d y , f o r ex-ample, t h a t t h e c o n c e p t s o f demand i n p u t s , s u p p o r t i n p u t s , s t r e s s e s , g a t e k e e p i n g , a s s o c i a t e d and a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o c a t i o n s — a l l o f what we have c a l l e d t h e r o l e b e h a v i o r s — s h o u l d be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d and used i n t h e s t u d y which w i l l f o l l o w , t o g a i n much g r e a t e r b e n e f i t from t h e same b a s i c amount o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n t h a t would be r e q u i r e d i n any e v e n t . I f t h e s e c o n c e p t s can be o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d , t h e problems i n h e r e n t i n t h e use o f system- v e r s u s s e l f -o r i e n t a t i o n i n b e h a v i o r may w e l l d i s a p p e a r t h r o u g h th e development o f a more s a t i s f a c t o r y c l a s s i f i c a t o r y scheme. I n t h i s way, t h e model's u l t i m a t e u t i l i t y can be d i s c o v e r e d c o n c u r r e n t l y , i t i s hoped, w i t h th e d i s c o v e r y o f new sub-s t a n t i v e knowledge about the i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system. I n t h e i n t e r i m , a s t a r t has been made on t h e p r oblem: t h e p o t e n t i a l o f t h e model appears t o have been i n c r e a s e d s i g -n i f i c a n t l y by p o s i t i n g a membership environment s e p a r a t e from the system. The model a l s o i n d i c a t e s t h e r e l e v a n c e o f t h e r e s e a r c h p r o b l e m p u r s u e d h e r e t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l system o p e r a t i o n s . 78 The R e s e a r c h D e s i g n and R e s u l t s D e s p i t e t h e problems and f a u l t s o f t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n , t h e s u b s t a n t i v e r e s u l t o f t h e ex p e r i m e n t a t l e a s t i n d i c a t e s t h a t a r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n t e r p r e t e d i n f o r -m a t i o n l e v e l s and b e h a v i o r p r o b a b l y e x i s t s - The r e s u l t s may have p a r t i c u l a r r e l e v a n c e t o t h e s t u d y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s a n d . t h e i r e f f e c t on system o p e r a t i o n . ( R e f e r e n c e was made e a r l i e r t o t h e p r o b a b l e v a l i d i t y o f IGO memberships as a c h a n n e l o f i n t e r p r e t e d p o l i t i c a l i n f o r -mation) . IGOs may a f f e c t system s t a b i l i t y i n ways h e r e -t o f o r e o v e r l o o k e d . T h a t t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n was o v e r l y s i m p l e i s c l e a r . The r e a s o n s f o r t h i s were t h r e e . F i r s t , p r e s s u r e o f time imposed l i m i t a t i o n s on what c o u l d be a c c o m p l i s h e d . T h i s p r e s s u r e made i n a d v i s a b l e t h e use o f computer a n a l y s i s , w h ich would have a l l o w e d b e t t e r sample s e l e c t i o n , a l a r g e r number o f b e h a v i o r c a t e g o r i e s , and s t r o n g e r s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s t h r o u g h t h e computer's a b i l i t y t o r o t a t e p a i r s and v a r i a b l e s f o r more th o r o u g h a n a l y s i s . I n t h e p r o j e c t t o f o l l o w , t h i s a i d t o a n a l y s i s s h o u l d be u t i l i z e d . The main p r o b l e m o f t h e d e s i g n as i t s t a n d s , however, i s one o f d e f i n i t i o n and o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n . The c h o i c e o f system- v e r s u s s e l f - o r i e n t e d c a t e g o r i e s f o r the b e h a v i o r v a r i a b l e s posed t h e b i g g e s t problem; w h i l e seeming s i m p l i s -t i c , t h e dichotomy f o r c e s t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o l e a v e t o ad hoc judgement many o f t h e c r i t e r i a f o r c o d i n g . An o p e r a t i o n a l l y more e l a b o r a t e system o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s r e q u i r e d t o d e a l a d e q u a t e l y w i t h t h e l a r g e number o f t y p e s o f b e h a v i o r which a r e f o u n d i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. D e f i n i t i o n s must be made s p e c i f i c , e x c l u s i v e , and e x h a u s t i v e b e f o r e f u r t h e r 2 r e s e a r c h i s a t t e m p t e d . T h i s a p p l i e s n o t o n l y t o c a t e g o r i e s o f b e h a v i o r , b u t t o i n c l u s i o n and e x c l u s i o n r u l e s t o answer t h e q u e s t i o n , what c o n s t i t u t e s a b e h a v i o r ? The o n l y s a t i s f a c t o r y o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n s were t h o s e f o r t h e c o n t r o l and t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . The c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e as such was t o o s i m p l i s t i c : t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f computer ti m e i n t h e p r o j e c t t o f o l l o w s h o u l d a l l o w th e use o f more c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , DEs s e r v e d w e l l as a s i n g l e i n d i c a t o r o f n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and p o l i t i c a l i n -f o r m a t i o n c h a n n e l . IGO memberships, t o o , i n d i c a t e d w i t h p r o b a b l e v a l i d i t y t h e p r e s e n c e o f i n t e r p r e t e d p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n . IGOs as an i n d i c a t o r , however, c o u l d be much more u s e f u l i f memberships were c l a s s i f i e d by t y p e (economic, s o c i a l , e t c . ) . T h i s would a l l o w a r e l a t i v e l y easy e x a m i n a t i o n A f u r t h e r weakness o f t h e s e l f / s y s t e m dichotomy i s i t s i n v a l i d i t y . System o r i e n t a t i o n tends t o be d e f i n e d i n terms o f t h e n e g a t i o n o f s e l f - d i r e c t e d b e h a v i o r . N o t h i n g e x i s t s i n t h e d e f i n i t i o n as i t was used t o d e f i n e e x p l i -c i t l y what system o r i e n t a t i o n i s . There may be b e h a v i o r s w hich a r e n e i t h e r system- no r s e l f - o r i e n t e d , and t h e r e was no c l a s s i f i c a t i o n t o t a k e a c c o u n t o f t h i s d i f f e r e n c e . F u r t h e r , a n a t i o n may t a k e p r e d o m i n a n t l y b i l a t e r a l a c t i o n i n a more t r a d i t i o n a l d i p l o m a t i c s t y l e as a r e s u l t o f a h i g h degree o f s u s c e p t i b i l i t y t o environment. The d e f i n i t i o n does n o t a l l o w a d e q u a t e l y f o r t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y , e i t h e r . 80 o f t h e p o s s i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t y p e s o f p o l i t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n and i s s u e - a r e a a c t i o n . The e x c l u s i o n o f i n t r a - I G O ( i . e . o r g a n i z a t i o n a l ) b e h a v i o r from a n a l y s i s c o u l d n o t be a v o i d e d under t h e r e -s e a r c h d e s i g n , b u t t h e o m i s s i o n s h o u l d n o t be made i n f u t u r e i n v e s t i g a t i o n . These d a t a would have t e n d e d t o s u p p o r t t h e r e s e a r c h h y p o t h e s i s , i f added; t h e i r i n c l u s i o n i n t h e n e x t p r o j e c t , however, may p r o v i d e a f u l l e r p i c t u r e o f t h e scope and i n t e n s i t y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . Sample s e l e c t i o n was adequate f o r t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n b u t s h o u l d be expanded i n f u t u r e , b o t h w i t h r e s p e c t t o num-b e r s and time p e r i o d . C o n c e r n i n g numbers, a l l n a t i o n s t a t e s s h o u l d be u t i l i z e d . R e g a r d i n g t i m e , t h e r e s e a r c h e r g a i n e d t h e i m p r e s s i o n w h i l e w o r k i n g on t h e p r e s e n t p r o j e c t t h a t e v e n t s o c c u r r e d a l m o s t by a c c i d e n t . These e v e n t s , such as th e A l g e r i a n - M o r o c c a n b o r d e r war, v i s i t s t o o t h e r c o u n t r i e s by t h e l e a d e r o f t h e new P e a r s o n government i n Canada, and th e a f t e r m a t h o f t h e M i s s i l e C r i s i s o f 1962, s u b j e c t i v e l y seem t o b i a s t h e r e s u l t s s e v e r e l y f o r t h e s e n a t i o n s i n any one y e a r . On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e s e same e v e n t s a r e p a r t o f th e whole p o p u l a t i o n o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l a c t i o n s , and c a n n o t be e x c l u d e d n e c e s s a r i l y . The s o l u t i o n t o t h i s p r o b l e m l i e s i n t h e e x t e n s i o n o f the time p e r i o d c o v e r e d by th e sample. A two-year range s h o u l d be attempted, a l o n g _ 81 w i t h t h e use o f a l l c o u n t r i e s , f o r a sample p r o c e d u r e l e s s s u s c e p t i b l e t o b i a s . C o d i n g and So u r c e s M e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y , t h e weakest s i n g l e a s p e c t o f t h e ex p e r i m e n t was t h e c o d i n g p r o c e d u r e . T h i s p r o b l e m has been w e l l e x p l o r e d i n o t h e r s e c t i o n s o f t h e t h e s i s , b u t i t b e a r s r e p e a t i n g t h a t d e f i n i t i o n a l problems and a c t u a l c o d i n g o p e r a t i o n s combined t o make u n r e l i a b l e t h e c a t e g o r i z a t i o n o f t h e d a t a . T h a t c o n f i d e n c e c an be e x p r e s s e d i n t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o d i n g does n o t compensate f o r t h e l o s s o f a r e a s o n a b l e measure o f r e l i a b i l i t y . A p r o b l e m r e l a t e d t o c o d i n g a r i s e s from t h e use o f news i n d e x e s as s o u r c e m a t e r i a l . C o d i n g o p e r a t i o n s on t h e s e d a t a w i l l always r e q u i r e a c o n s i d e r a b l e degree o f judgement, u n l e s s a d i c t i o n a r y can be s t a r t e d t o make more e x a c t t h e c a t e g o r i z a t i o n p r o c e s s . C h a r l e s M c C l e l l a n d made a s i g n i -f i c a n t s t a r t on t h i s b a s i s d u r i n g h i s B e r l i n c o n f l i c t s t u d y . He c o m p i l e d a l i s t o f e i g h t e e n t y p e s o f a c t i o n "made t o con-form as c l o s e l y as p o s s i b l e t o t h e language used by t h e Index c o m p i l e r s . Synonym l i s t s were a l s o d e v e l o p e d . . ."•J W h i l e t h i s achievement a p p l i e s o n l y t o c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n s and o n l y t o one i n d e x , i t r a i s e s the u l t i m a t e p o s s i b i l i t y o f M c C l e l l a n d , i n S i n g e r , op. c i t . , p. 168. 82 a f u l l d i c t i o n a r y . The l i s t o f words and synonyms c o u l d a s s i s t t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o be more e x p l i c i t and c o n s i s t e n t , and c o u l d be a dapted w e l l t o l a t e r computer a n a l y s i s . Once t h e d i c t i o n a r y were c o m p i l e d , s i g n i f i c a n t economies would emerge from th e use o f t h i s s o u r c e m a t e r i a l . The need f o r work i n t h i s a r e a i s d e f i n i t e l y i n d i c a t e d . I t can p r o b a b l y be done b e s t i n t h e way t h a t t h e a d a p t e d model s h o u l d be e l a b o r a t e d : s t e p by s t e p , i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h . A l s o a r i s i n g from t h e q u e s t i o n o f b e h a v i o r a l d a t a s o u r c e s , a more d e t a i l e d and s y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f b i a s i n d a t a c o v e r a g e i s w a r r a n t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s d i s c o v e r e d i n t h i s p r o j e c t ( a n d d i s c u s s e d i n A ppendix E ) . A l l o f t h e i n d e x s o u r c e s m e ntion i n C h a p t e r I I I s h o u l d be a p p r a i s e d , compared t o each o t h e r , and com-p a r e d t o non-Western s o u r c e m a t e r i a l , t o g a i n a more p r e c i s assessment o f t h e h a z a r d s o f each s o u r c e . 4 The p i l o t p r o -j e c t , i n d i c a t i n g need f o r t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , was n o t s t r u c t u r e d t o d e a l more t h o r o u g h l y w i t h t h e q u e s t i o n . T h i s a d m i t t e d l y would be a t a s k o f l a r g e p r o -p o r t i o n s , b u t work toward t h i s end s h o u l d be s t a r t e d . 83 Summary T h i s c h a p t e r has r e v i e w e d some o f t h e problems t o be d e a l t w i t h i n f u r t h e r i n q u i r y . The i n v e s t i g a t i o n r e p o r t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s was u n d e r t a k e n as a p i l o t p r o j e c t , n o t as a d e f i n i t i v e p i e c e o f r e s e a r c h . I n t h i s c o n t e x t , t h e s t u d y has p r o v e d u s e f u l , by i s o l a t i n g problems i n c o n c e p t u a l i z a -t i o n , methodology, and d a t a s o u r c e s . Work w i l l be con -t i n u e d i n t h e same v e i n . The t h e s i s p r o j e c t was d i r e c t e d t o t h r e e b a s i c a r e a s o f c o n c e r n : t h e o r e t i c a l , m e t h o d o l o g i c a l , and s u b s t a n t i v e . I n each o f t h e s e , f i n d i n g s o f p r o b a b l e l o n g - t e r m v a l u e have been made. A s t a r t has been made on t h e o p e r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f t h e E a s t o n i a n model, and i n p a r t i c u l a r a p r e v i o u s l y u n e x p l o r e d a r e a o f i n q u i r y has been i s o l a t e d . S u b s t a n t i v e l y , i n t h i s u n e x p l o r e d a r e a , a p r o b a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p was f o u n d between i n f o r m a t i o n and p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. T h i r d , a s t a r t was made on t h e assessment o f a p r o m i s i n g b u t l i t t l e - u s e d s o u r c e o f b e h a v i o r a l d a t a f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s r e s e a r c h . 84 BIBLIOGRAPHY A l g e r , Chadwick F. 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"Access t o B e r l i n : The Q u a n t i t y and V a r i e t y o f E v e n t s , 1948-1963," i n Q u a n t i t a t i v e I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s : I n s i g h t s and E v i d e n c e , ed. J . D a v i d S i n g e r . New York: The F r e e P r e s s , 1968, pp. 159-186. 86 M c C l e l l a n d , C h a r l e s A. " D r i v i n g Out t h e H o l l o w n e s s : The Reshaping o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Systems Theory," U n i v e r s i t y o f S o u t h e r n C a l i f o r n i a , 1968. (Mimeo) McGuigan, G e r a l d F. "The E n t r e p r e n e u r and t h e C l i m a t e o f C a n a d i a n E n t e r p r i s e : The S o c i a l i z a t i o n o f the I n t e l l e c t u a l E n t e r p r i s e , " U n p u b l i s h e d M a n u s c r i p t , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o lumbia, August 31, 1967. M i l b r a t h , L e s t e r W. P o l i t i c a l P a r t i c i p a t i o n : How and Why do P e o p l e Get I n v o l v e d i n P o l i t i c s ? C h i c a g o : Rand M c N a l l y and Company, 1965. ' M i l l e r , James G. " L i v i n g Systems: B a s i c C o n c e p t s , " B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e , X, 3 (1965), pp. 193-237. New York Times Index f o r t h e P u b l i s h e d News o f 1963: A M a s t e r Key t o t h e News, L I . Rapoport, A n a t o l . "Some System Approaches t o P o l i t i c a l T h e o r y ," i n V a r i e t i e s o f P o l i t i c a l T heory, ed. D a v i d E a s t o n . Englewood C l i f f s , N.J.: P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , 1966, pp. 129-141. Riesman, D a v i d , Nathan G l a z e r and R e u e l Denney. The L o n e l y Crowd, A Study o f t h e Changing American C h a r a c t e r , a b r i d g e d e d i t i o n . New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1950. [Paperbound e d i t i o n , 1961.] R o s e c r a n c e , R i c h a r d N. A c t i o n and R e a c t i o n i n World P o l i t i c s : I n t e r n a t i o n a l Systems i n P e r s p e c t i v e . B o s t o n : L i t t l e , Brown and Company, 1963. Rosenau, James N. " P r e - T h e o r i e s and T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " i n Approaches t o Comparative and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , ed. R. B a r r y F a r r e l l . E v a n s t o n , 111.: N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, pp. 27-92. Rummel, Rudolph J . "Some Dimensions i n t h e F o r e i g n B e h a v i o r o f N a t i o n s , " J o u r n a l o f Peace R e s e a r c h , 1966, pp. 201-224. . "A P r o p o s a l S u b m i t t e d t o the O f f i c e o f B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s , Advanced R e s e a r c h P r o j e c t Agency, Department o f Defense, f o r B a s i c R e s e a r c h , " U n i v e r s i t y o f H a w a i i , A p r i l 15, 1967. (Mimeo) 87 Scheuch, E r w i n K. " C r o s s - N a t i o n a l Comparisons u s i n g A g g r e g a t e Data: Some S u b s t a n t i v e and M e t h o d o l o g i c a l P roblems," i n Comparing N a t i o n s : The Use o f Q u a n t i -t a t i v e Data i n C r o s s - N a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h , ed. R i c h a r d L. M e r i t t and S t e i n Rokkan. New~ Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966, pp. 131-167. S i e g e l , S i d n e y . N o n p a r a m e t r i c S t a t i s t i c s f o r t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s . New York: M c G r a w - H i l l Book Company,Inc., 1956. S i n g e r , J . D a v i d . "The L e v e l - o f - A n a l y s i s Problem i n I n t e r -n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , " i n The I n t e r n a t i o n a l System: T h e o r e t i c a l E s s a y s , ed. K l a u s K n o r r and S i d n e y Verba. P r i n c e t o n , N.J.: P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1961, pp. 77-92. Wasserman, Benno. "The F a i l u r e o f I n t e l l i g e n c e P r e d i c t i o n , " P o l i t i c a l S t u d i e s , V I I I , 1 (1960), pp. 156-169. W o l f e r s , A r n o l d . D i s c o r d and C o l l a b o r a t i o n : E s s a y s on I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s . B a l t i m o r e : Johns Hopkins P r e s s , 1962. Worldmark E n c y c l o p a e d i a o f t h e N a t i o n s . V o l . I : U n i t e d N a t i o n s . New York: Worldmark P r e s s , 1965. A P P E N D I C E S 89 APPENDIX A SYSTEM NORMS AND RULES T h i s appendix i s i n c l u d e d as a supplement t o t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e a dapted model, because the q u e s t i o n o f norms and r u l e s impinges upon some o f t h e c o n c e p t s and examples used i n t h e body o f C h a p t e r I I . The e x i s t e n c e o f norms and r u l e s w i l l be d e m o n s t r a t e d h e r e a t t h e c o n c e p t u a l l e v e l : d i s p l a y i n g t h e phenomena o p e r a t i o n a l l y must a w a i t a l a t e r t i m e . From any g i v e n n a t i o n s t a t e , t h e r e s e a r c h e r can a b s t r a c t f a c t o r s w hich he terms v a r i a b l e s o f ' p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e ' . A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s l i t t l e i n t r a d i s c i p l i n e agreement on t h e p r e c i s e meaning o f t h i s c o n c e p t , c e r t a i n a s p e c t s o f p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e , t a k e n i n t h e b r o a d s e n s e , can be i d e n t i f i e d . F a c t o r s would embrace s t y l e s o f b e h a v i o r (customs, r u l e s and t h e l i k e , t a k e n from th e a n t h r o p o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e ) and b e l i e f systems ( a t t i t u d e s , norms and g o a l s , o f t e n t a k e n from t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e ) . The r e s e a r c h e r c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e s e v a r i a b l e s as t h e y e x i s t w i t h i n a p o l i t y would seek t o d i s c o v e r t h e dominant norms, r u l e s , g o a l s and s t y l e s w i t h i n t h e n a t i o n s t a t e , and would n o t e t h e p r o p o r t i o n and t y p e o f d e v i a n t b e h a v i o r i n t h e system. From t h i s o p e r a t i o n c o u l d emerge a number o f p i c t u r e s o f t h e p o l i t y . One o f 90 them (our c h i e f concern) would be a p i c t u r e o f t h e n a t u r e and e x t e n t o f s u p p o r t , i n t h e b r o a d s e n s e , which t h e system e n j o y s . To t r a n s f o r m p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e i n t o s u p p o r t s i s n o t t o reduce t h e meaning o f t h e c o n c e p t ' c u l t u r e ' t o r i d i c u l o u s extremes. S u p p o r t s o f t h e p o l i t i c a l system a r e , i n f a c t , p a r t o f t h e c u l t u r e , and v i c e v e r s a : t h e two a r e i n e x t r i -c a b l y l i n k e d . D a v i d E a s t o n ' s c o n c e p t s o f s u p p o r t s a r e i n f o r -m a t i v e t o t h i s d i s c u s s i o n . He l i s t s t h r e e o b j e c t s o f s u p p o r t w i t h i n any p o l i t i c a l system as a u t h o r i t i e s , regime and community.^ S u p p o r t f o r any o f t h e s e t h r e e o b j e c t s can range from n e g a t i v e t o p o s i t i v e . A l t h o u g h t h e r e a r e many o t h e r d i m e n s i o n s t o p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e , we s h a l l c o n c e n t r a t e on t h e t h r e e s u p p o r t o b j e c t s because o f t h e i r r e l e v a n c e t o the i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. I f one can assume t h e e x i s t e n c e o f p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e among a c t o r s i n a d o m e s t i c p o l i t y , and i f one can assume t h a t p a r t o f t h a t c u l t u r e c o m p r i s e s s u p p o r t s f o r t h e o b j e c t s j u s t mentioned, i t i s e q u a l l y l o g i c a l t o assume t h a t t h e a c t o r s i n the i n t e r n a t i o n a l system w i l l d i s p l a y c e r t a i n b e h a v i o r a l -""See h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s t o p i c i n A Systems A n a l y s i s o f P o l i t i c a l L i f e (New York: W i l e y , 1965) , pp. 157 f f . 2 I b i d . , p. 163. 91 c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w hich we can term ' c u l t u r e ' and ' s u p p o r t ' f o r s p e c i f i c o b j e c t s o f t h e system. As w i t h r e s e a r c h i n a d o m e s t i c p o l i t y , t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r can i n q u i r e i n t o what t h e predominant s t y l e s and b e l i e f systems i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system may be, and how t h e s e r e l a t e t o t h e t h r e e o b j e c t s o f s u p p o r t . T h i s n o t i o n i s d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e A - l . Each c i r c l e r e p r e s e n t s t h e s e t o f v a l u e s o f e a c h r e s p e c t i v e n a t i o n . The s o l i d a r e a i n d i c a t e s i s s u e s on which t h e r e i s complete agreement between n a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e system. The shaded a r e a shows i s s u e s on which t h e r e i s s u b s t a n t i a l agreement between two n a t i o n s . F i g u r e A - l . Schematic r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f system norms and r u l e s u s i n g N a t i o n s A, B, and C as examples o f a l l system a c t o r s . As t h e f i g u r e d e m o n s t r a t e s , n a t i o n s s h a r e some s t y l e s o f b e h a v i o r and b e l i e f s w i t h v i r t u a l l y a l l o t h e r n a t i o n s ; t h e y s h a r e o t h e r t h i n g s a l s o w i t h some o t h e r n a t i o n s , b u t n o t a l l ; some v a l u e s a r e s h a r e d l i t t l e , i f a t a l l . 'System r u l e s and norms' a r e c o n s i d e r e d t o be t h o s e f a c t o r s w hich a r e a l m o s t unanimously s h a r e d . The degree t o which t h e s e b e h a v i o r s and views a r e s h a r e d between n a t i o n s depends upon t h e o b j e c t s o f s u p p o r t , as w e l l as depending upon i n f o r m a t i o n , d o m e s t i c 92 c o n s t r a i n t s on p o l i c y , and so f o r t h . The degree o f s h a r i n g w i l l v a r y a l s o a c c o r d i n g t o i s s u e . I t i s t h e o b j e c t s o f s u p p o r t , however, which a r e most r e l e v a n t t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f s h a r i n g . T h i s i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d i n F i g u r e A-2. Shaded a r e a r e p r e -s e n t s p r o p o r t i o n o f n a t i o n s s h a r i n g some s t y l e s and b e l i e f s about o b j e c t s o f s u p p o r t . F i g u r e A-2. P r o p o r t i o n o f i n t e r - n a t i o n s h a r i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o o b j e c t s o f s u p p o r t w i t h i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system. Because the a dapted model p o s i t s no incumbents i n t h e p o s i t i o n o f a u t h o r i t y , t h e r e can be no l a s t i n g o r c o n t i n u -ous a u t h o r i t y s u p p o r t . Whatever s u p p o r t can be d i s c o v e r e d i n t h i s c a t e g o r y w i l l be on ad hoc i s s u e s : s h a r e d a p p r o v a l w i l l g i v e n t o s p e c i f i c a c t o r s c a r r y i n g o u t s p e c i f i c a u t h o r i t y r o l e s w i t h i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system from time t o t i m e . In t h e contemporary system t h e n i t would be more u s u a l f o r a s i z e a b l e group o f n a t i o n s t o oppose the l e g i t i m a c y o f au-t h o r i t y a c t i o n . Thus, a u t h o r i t i e s — a s an o b j e c t o f s u p p o r t w i t h i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m — r e c e i v e l i t t l e unanimous s u p p o r t from t h e f u l l membership environment. 93 S u p p o r t f o r regime tends t o be s h a r e d on a w i d e r b a s i s . On t h i s o b j e c t , E a s t o n i s o f d i r e c t a s s i s t a n c e : The regime as s e t s o f c o n s t r a i n t s on p o l i -t i c a l i n t e r a c t i o n i n a l l systems may be b r o k e n down i n t o t h r e e components: v a l u e s ( g o a l s and p r i n c i p l e s ) , norms, and s t r u c t u r e o f a u t h o r i t y . Some g o a l s and p r i n c i p l e s w i l l be u n i v e r s a l l y s h a r e d — t h e 'motherhood and s i n ' t y p e — s u c h as f o r m a l e q u a l i t y between a l l n a t i o n s , n e g a t i v e a t t i t u d e s toward n u c l e a r weapons t e s t i n g , b e l i e f i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o o p e r a t i o n (to a g r e a t e r o r l e s s e r e x t e n t , d e p e n d i n g upon t h e a c t o r ) , and so f o r t h . The r e -s e a r c h e r can o b s e r v e t h e s e v a l u e s , o f t e n , by l o o k i n g o n l y a t b e h a v i o r . They need n o t be a r t i c u l a t e d as v a l u e s t o q u a l i f y f o r a n a l y s i s . As E a s t o n comments, P a r t o f t h e i r f u n c t i o n d e r i v e s from t h e v e r y f a c t t h a t t h e y may l i e dormant most o f t h e t i m e , s e r v i n g as t h e s i l e n t assumptions o f b e h a v i o r r a t h e r t h a n as a r t i c u l a t e i d e o l o g i e s . 4 Norms would i n c l u d e t h e s e t o f mutual e x p e c t a t i o n s on w hich n a t i o n s would i n t e r a c t , and would embrace t h e s e t o f s h a r e d n o t i o n s about p r o p e r p r o c e s s i n g p r o c e d u r e s f o r d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f system i n p u t s . The s t r u c t u r e o f a u t h o r i t y c o n c e p t ^ 3 I b i d . , p. 193. 4 I b i d . , p. 199. 5 T h i s s h o u l d n o t be c o n f u s e d w i t h ' a u t h o r i t i e s ' mentioned e a r l i e r . Whereas ' a u t h o r i t i e s ' a r e s p e c i f i c a c t o r s who may u n d e r t a k e t o p l a y the a u t h o r i t y r o l e i n a g i v e n sequence o f e v e n t s , t h e s t r u c t u r e o f a u t h o r i t y i s t h e s e t o f r u l e s by which such a c t o r s can a c c o m p l i s h t h i s f e a t . 94 a p p l i e s t o s p e c i f i c p r o v i s i o n s w i t h i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r -g a n i z a t i o n s f o r t h e normal system o p e r a t i o n s . F o r example, p r o c e s s i n g o f d i s p u t e s i s one a s p e c t o f t h e s t r u c t u r e o f a u t h o r i t y . O t h e r a s p e c t s i n c l u d e a p p r o v a l o f t h e s t a t e o f q u a s i - a n a r c h y and ad hoc a c t i o n s which c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system. Such a p p r o v a l m i g h t w e l l be p r e d i c a t e d on s h a r e d n o t i o n s o f n a t i o n a l s e l f - i n t e r e s t and s h a r e d d e s i r e s t o maximize freedom from e x t e r n a l con-s t r a i n t s . S u p p o r t f o r community, as a p p l i e d i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s p h e r e , i s a r a t h e r amorphous c o n c e p t . Do t h e o b j e c t s f o r s u p p o r t w i t h i n t h e 'community' c a t e g o r y i n v o l v e o n l y n a t i o n s t a t e s , p e o p l e , s o c i a l c l a s s e s , o r what? T h i s q u e s t i o n w i l l n o t be answered h e r e , i f i n d e e d i t can be answered i n any d e f i n i t i v e way. The r e l e v a n t p a r t o f t h e c o n c e p t f o r o u r p u r p o s e d e a l s w i t h s h a r e d p e r c e p t i o n s o f i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e among n a t i o n s . One c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h e contemporary i n -t e r n a t i o n a l system i s t h e predominant n o t i o n t h a t no n a t i o n can e x i s t i n i s o l a t i o n from a l l o t h e r s ; t h a t what happens i n Japan, F r a n c e , o r Ghana may w e l l have r e p e r c u s s i o n s on t h e e n t i r e membership environment. The p r o p o r t i o n o f s h a r e d community s u p p o r t v a r i a b l e s i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t o be g r e a t e r t h a n t h o s e o f regime o r a u t h o r i t y s u p p o r t f a c t o r s , i n p a r t because community v a r i a b l e s a r e l e s s s p e c i f i c . 95 I n summary, t h e most r e l e v a n t o b j e c t s o f s u p p o r t i n t h i s a n a l y s i s i s s u p p o r t f o r regime, i . e . " s y s t e m norms and r u l e s ' . Here, v i r t u a l l y unanimous s h a r i n g on s p e c i f i c i t e m s under t h i s c a t e g o r y becomes p a r t o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e , w i t h a l m o s t a l l a c t o r s p e r c e i v i n g t h e ' r i g h t n e s s ' o r ' c o r r e c t n e s s ' o f c e r t a i n modes o f b e h a v i o r and c e r t a i n v a l u e s . I n F i g u r e A - l , t h i s a r e a o f agreement i s r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e s o l i d a r e a i n t h e i n t e r s e c t i o n o f t h e t h r e e c i r c l e s . I t w i l l be i n t h e shaded a r e a — n o r m s and r u l e s w hich a r e s h a r e d by some b u t n o t a l l o f t h e a c t o r s — t h a t t h e p o i n t s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l system c o n t e n t i o n t e n d t o a r i s e . These s e t s o f p a r t l y - s h a r e d norms and r u l e s w i l l p r e d o m i n a t e as i s s u e s on which most a t t e n t i o n t e n d s t o c e n t e r w i t h i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system. The w h i t e a r e a o f t h e c i r c l e s i n t h e f i g u r e i n d i c a t e s items which a r e s h a r e d by t h e a c t o r w i t h few o r no o t h e r a c t o r s . O b v i o u s l y , an o p e r a t i o n a l l i m i t must be s e t f o r how many a c t o r s o r what k i n d o f a c t o r s s h a r e g i v e n v a l u e s b e f o r e t h e y become s i g n i f i c a n t i n t h e system as c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e s . An o p e r a t i o n a l l i m i t i s needed a l s o t o d e t e r m i n e how many oc c u p a n t s o f t h e membership environment need t o s h a r e c e r t a i n views b e f o r e t h e s e views a r e c o u n t e d as 'system norms and r u l e s ' , t h e s a l i e n t p a r t o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e . U n t i l such o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n s c an be f o r -96 mulated and research be carried out, demonstration of the empirical r e a l i t y of system norms and rules cannot be undertaken. Using the concepts discussed here, however, the contention that system norms and rules do exist carries a certain face v a l i d i t y . 9 7 /APPENDIX B DETAILS OF DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGE DATA— ITS COLLECTION, DERIVATION, AND CODING ( A l l o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n below i s qu o t e d d i r e c t l y f r o m Brams' r e p o r t s . The m a t e r i a l p r e s e n t e d up t o t h e a s t e r i s k s ( * ) i s from Chadwick F. A l g e r and S t e v e n J . Brams, " P a t t e r n s o f R e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n N a t i o n a l C a p i t a l s and I n t e r - g o v e r n m e n t a l O r g a n i z a t i o n s , " World P o l i t i c s , XIX ( J u l y , 1967), p. 647. The m a t e r i a l q u o t e d below t h e a s t e r i s k i s an appendix t o S t e v e n J . Brams, Form and Flow i n t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l System, U n p u b l i s h e d Ph.D. D i s s e r t a t i o n , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , 1966, pp. 150-153. The r a t i o n a l e f o r each c o d i n g d e c i s i o n i s e x c l u d e d . ) " L i s t s o f d i p l o m a t s t h a t a c o u n t r y s e n t a b r o a d were o b t a i n e d from f o r t y - f i v e n a t i o n s , and 1,469 i n d i v i d u a l m i s s -i o n s r e c o r d e d as s e n t , as t a k e n from t h e s e s e n d i n g l i s t s , were compared w i t h t h e comparable m i s s i o n s r e c e i v e d , as r e c o r d e d i n t h e r e c e i v i n g l i s t s , t o check t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e r e c e i v i n g - l i s t d a t a . O n l y 153 o f t h e c o m p a r i s o n s , o r 10.4 p e r c e n t , d i f f e r e d e i t h e r by more t h a n f i v e d i p l o m a t s o r by more t h a n a f a c t o r o f two, even though comparisons were b a s e d on s e n d i n g and r e c e i v i n g l i s t s t h a t d i f f e r e d by as much as two y e a r s . "We e s t i m a t e t h a t our t a l l y o f d i p l o m a t s f o r 1963-64 i s o v e r n i n e t y p e r c e n t complete. R e c e i v i n g - l i s t d a t a were n o t o b t a i n e d from f i f t e e n o f t h e 119 n a t i o n s i n c l u d e d i n t h e s t u d y . . . These f i f t e e n n a t i o n s s e n t 1,362 d i p l o m a t s 98 t o 104 n a t i o n s from which d a t a were o b t a i n e d , o r 5.8 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l number o f d i p l o m a t s t h a t t h e s e n a t i o n s r e c e i v e d . , Even i f t h e s e f i f t e e n n a t i o n s s e n t a p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y h i g h number o f d i p l o m a t s t o one a n o t h e r , i t i s s t i l l u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e w o r l d d i p l o m a t i c community would exceed t e n p e r c e n t . " * * "1. D i p l o m a t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s who were s t a t i o n e d i n t h e c a p i t a l o f a c o u n t r y (or wherever t h e embassy o r l e g a t i o n was l o c a t i o n ) were d i s t i n g u i s h e d from t h o s e who were s t a t -i o n e d e l s e w h e r e i n t h e c o u n t r y . [ F o o t n o t e : 'Although R a w a l p i n d i i s t h e o f f i c i a l c a p i t a l o f P a k i s t a n , K a r a c h i was c o n s i d e r e d t h e c a p i t a l i n t h i s s t u d y s i n c e t h e g r e a t b u l k o f t h e P a k i s t a n d i p l o m a t i c community i s s t a t i o n e d t h e r e . ] D a t a were r e c o r d e d f o r b o t h t h e number o f d i p l o m a t s r e s i d i n g i n t h e n a t i o n a l c a p i t a l and t h e t o t a l number s t a t i o n e d i n t h e e n t i r e c o u n t r y , i n c l u d i n g t h e c a p i t a l , b u t t h e a n a l y s e s i n t h i s s t u d y a r e b a s e d o n l y on t h e c a p i t a l f i g u r e s . [ T h i s s t a t e m e n t h o l d s a l s o f o r t h e McMaster s t u d y . ] F o r t h o s e c o u n t r i e s w i t h d u a l c a p i t a l s ( B r a z i l , L i b y a , and S a u d i a A r a b i a ) , t h e number o f r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s i n one c a p i t a l was added t o t h e number i n t h e o t h e r t o g i v e a c o m p o s i t e c a p i t a l f i g u r e . . . . "2. C l e r i c a l and s e c r e t a r i a l p e r s o n n e l , as w e l l as s p e c i a l -i s t s , t e c h n i c i a n s , and s t a f f who d i d n o t have c a r e e r - o f f i c e r r a n k , were e x c l u d e d from the c a p i t a l t o t a l s . I n t h e c a s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , r e g u l a r f o r e i g n s e r v i c e o f f i c e r s and r e -s e r v e o f f i c e r s (but n o t s t a f f o f f i c e r s ) , as w e l l as s p e c i a l -i s t s w i t h c a r e e r - o f f i c e r rank a t t a c h e d t o t h e embassy s t a f f , were c o u n t e d i n t h e d i p l o m a t i c t o t a l s . . . . "3. A s u b s t a n t i a l number o f c o u n t r i e s , most f r e q u e n t l y t h e s m a l l e r ones, m a i n t a i n f o r m a l d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s w i t h o t h e r c o u n t r i e s b u t do n o t s t a t i o n permanent r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s i n t h e s e c o u n t r i e s . P e r s o n n e l who were a c c r e d i t e d t o one o r more c o u n t r i e s , b u t who were n o t a c t u a l l y l i v i n g i n t h e s e c o u n t r i e s , were n o t c o u n t e d as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t o t h e s e c o u n t r i e s , a l t h o u g h t h e f a c t t h a t a c o u n t r y had i n a b s e n t i a r e p r e s e n t a t i o n w i t h a n o t h e r c o u n t r y was n o t e d . On t h e o t h e r hand, i f a p o s t were t e m p o r a r i l y v a c a n t o r a p e r s o n had been f o r m a l l y nominated. . . o r o f f i c i a l l y approved. . . f o r a p o s t b u t had n o t y e t a r r i v e d i n t h e h o s t c o u n t r y , t h e p o s t was r e g a r d e d as i f i t were o c c u p i e d by a permanent r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . . . . 99 "4. Honorary d i p l o m a t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s were n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e c a p i t a l t o t a l s . . . . "5. I n a d d i t i o n t o the c a r e e r p e r s o n n e l i n embassies and l e g a t i o n s , t h e c a r e e r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s i n c o n s u l a t e g e n e r a l s , c o n s u l a t e s , and v i c e - c o n s u l a t e s were a l s o i n c l u d e d i n t h e c a p i t a l t o t a l s . I n t h e few c a s e s where t h e n a t i o n a l i t y o f a c o n s u l was l i s t e d as t h a t o f t h e c o u n t r y i n which he r e s i d e d — i n s t e a d o f a c o u n t r y w hich he r e p r e s e n t e d — h e was n o t c o u n t e d as a c a r e e r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . . . . " 6 . Permanent r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t o r e g i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s were n o t c o u n t e d as d i p l o m a t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t o t h e c o u n t r y i n which the h e a d q u a r t e r s o f t h e s e o r g a n i -z a t i o n s a r e l o c a t e d . P e r s o n n e l i n r e g i o n a l o f f i c e s (e.g. t h e B r i t i s h I n f o r m a t i o n O f f i c e f o r t h e M i d d l e E a s t i n Lebanon) were s i m i l a r l y e x c l u d e d from t h e f i g u r e s f o r t h e c o u n t r y i n w hich t h e y were l o c a t e d . . . . "7. A l l f o r e i g n a i d m i s s i o n p e r s o n n e l were e x c l u d e d from the d i p l o m a t i c t o t a l s . I n c l u d e d i n t h i s c a t e g o r y a r e t h e U.S. Agency f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development (AID) M i s s i o n s , and t h e F r e n c h m i s s i o n s o f A i d and C o o p e r a t i o n i n most o f F r a n c e ' s former c o l o n i e s . . . . "8. Only m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l who were a t t a c h e d t o embassy s t a f f s were i n c l u d e d i n t h e d i p l o m a t i c t o t a l s . Thus, t h e U.S. M i l i t a r y A s s i s t a n c e A d v i s o r y Group i n t h e P h i l i p p i n e s and S p a i n , U.S. M u t u a l Defense A s s i s t a n c e Program P e r s o n n e l i n B e l g i u m and G r e a t B r i t a i n , p e r s o n n e l i n t h e o f f i c e o f t h e Deputy Commandant o f t h e B r i t i s h M i l i t a r y Government i n B e r l i n , and t h e A u s t r a l i a n Army T r a i n i n g Team i n South V i e t n a m were n o t c o n s i d e r e d d i p l o m a t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s ; p e r s o n n e l o f t h e B r i t i s h A d v i s o r y M i s s i o n i n South Vietnam, however, d i d q u a l i f y as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s because each member o f t h e m i s s i o n a l s o c a r r i e d t h e t i t l e o f m i l i t a r y a t t a c h e . • • • "9. I f a c o u n t r y s t a t i o n e d d i p l o m a t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s i n b o t h C h i n a s , Germanys, K o r e a s , o r Vietnams, i t was t r e a t e d as i f i t a l l o t t e d d i p l o m a t i c r e c o g n i t i o n t o b o t h c o u n t r i e s , and t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s s e n t t o each were s e p a r a t e l y c o u n t e d . . . . "10. When no l o c a l a d d r e s s was g i v e n f o r t h e c h a n c e l l e r y and no l o c a l a d d r e s s e s were g i v e n f o r any o f t h e d i p l o m a t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s which one c o u n t r y was l i s t e d as r e c e i v i n g from a n o t h e r , t h e n no t r a n s a c t i o n o f p e r s o n n e l was assumed 100 t o have t a k e n p l a c e and no d i p l o m a t i c exchange was r e c o r d e d . . . . "11. R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from one c o u n t r y (e.g. S w i t z e r l a n d ) who l o o k e d a f t e r t h e f o r e i g n i n t e r e s t s o f a n o t h e r c o u n t r y (e.g. The U n i t e d S t a t e s ) i n a t h i r d c o u n t r y (e.g. Cuba) were e x c l u d e d from t h e ' s e r v i c i n g ' c o u n t r y ' s ( S w i t z e r l a n d ' s r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n t h e t h i r d c o u n t r y ( C u b a ) . . . . "12. Due t o t h e f a c t t h a t the d i p l o m a t i c l i s t s were p r i n t e d i n many d i f f e r e n t languages and t h e r u l e s f o r th e i n c l u s i o n o f p e r s o n n e l d i f f e r among c o u n t r i e s , t h e r e were numerous o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r m i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f t h e l i s t s . I n many c a s e s where q u e s t i o n s a r o s e , c o n s u l a t e s i n C h i c a g o were c a l l e d and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s c o n s u l t e d about t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e i r l i s t s . " 101 APPENDIX C CODING 1. I n s t r u c t i o n s and Comments t o Coders (Copies o f t h e m a t e r i a l i n t h i s s e c t i o n were g i v e n t o each c o d i n g p a n e l . ) The d a t a on t h e s h e e t s f o r each c o u n t r y a r e g a t h e r e d from two news s o u r c e s , t h e New York Times Index and K e e s i n g ' s Contemporary A r c h i v e s . Where p o s s i b l e , I have t y p e d t h e d a t a i r i c h r o n o l o g i c a l o r d e r . Many e n t r i e s on my rough w o r k i n g s h e e t s , however, were made w i t h o u t d a t e s , and t h u s many n a t i o n s and b e h a v i o r s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i n t i m e sequence. I would s u g g e s t t h a t , b e f o r e c o d i n g i s u n d e r t a k e n f o r e a c h c o u n t r y , you r e a d o v e r t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h a t c o u n t r y f o r t h e e n t i r e y e a r , t o g e t a p e r s p e c t i v e on t h e f u l l s cope o f e v e n t s f o r the y e a r . C o d i n g i s c r u c i a l t o t h i s p r o j e c t : d e s p i t e a seeming l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g any g i v e n b e h a v i o r , a d e c i s i o n must be m a d e — i f n e c e s s a r y on a 'best g u e s s ' b a s i s . THE PROJECT'S PURPOSE I am t e s t i n g t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t a n a t i o n w i t h a h i g h e r l e v e l o f memberships i n i n t e r - g o v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i -z a t i o n s w i l l t e n d t o e x h i b i t a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f w o r l d - o r i e n t e d , r a t h e r t h a n s e l f - o r i e n t e d , i n t e r n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r s t h a n a n a t i o n w i t h a lower membership l e v e l w i l l show. (The c o n c e p t i s somewhat s i m i l a r t o Riesman's i n n e r v e r s u s o t h e r d i r e c t e d n e s s . ) I t i s t h e dependent v a r i a b l e which you w i l l be c o d i n g , t h e n . W h i l e t h e p r o j e c t does n o t i n v o l v e systems a n a l y s i s , t h e u n d e r l y i n g h y p o t h e s i s — t h a t t h e k i n d and amount o f i n f o r m a t i o n which a n a t i o n r e c e i v e s d e t e r m i n e s i n p a r t t h e n a t i o n ' s i n t e r n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r — a s w e l l as f u r t h e r p l a n s f o r t h i s form o f a n a l y s i s , stem from a s y s t e m i c view o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . J u s t b e f o r e we d i s c u s s t h e d e t a i l s o f t h e c o d i n g , I would l i k e t o s k e t c h i n some o f t h e c o n -c e p t s , i n t h e hope t h a t i t w i l l be o f h e l p i n c o d i n g . My b a s i c system view f o l l o w s t h a t o f D a v i d E a s t o n , b u t w i t h a number o f m o d i f i c a t i o n s . O p e r a t i o n a l l y , I see a system as i n t e r a c t i o n s o r b e h a v i o r s , n o t component members, and r e g a r d i t as b e i n g i n a s e r i e s o f s e p a r a t e e q u i l i b r i a , o r i n a sense i n a n o n - e x i s t e n t s t a t e , e x c e p t when a f f e c t e d by i n p u t s o v e r t i m e . Thus, o p e r a t i o n a l l y , 102 I am i n t e r e s t e d o n l y i n b e h a v i o r s which c o n s t i t u t e i n p u t s w hich r e i n f o r c e o r a l t e r t h e system (or t h e e n v i r o n m e n t ) . I am n o t i n t e r e s t e d , f o r example, i n an agreement between two n a t i o n s t o c o n t i n u e a t r e a t y , b e cause t h e t r e a t y a l r e a d y was p a r t o f t h e system, and n o t h i n g has changed. I n p u t s i n t o t h e system come from a c t o r s who have been s t i m u l a t e d by i n f o r m a t i o n about t h a t system o r i t s e n v i r o n m e n t . So, s u b s t a n t i v e l y , I c o n c e p t u a l i z e membership i n t h e system as b e i n g d e t e r m i n e d by t h e degree t o which an a c t o r o r n a t i o n s t a t e has a c c e s s t o s y s t e m i c i n f o r m a t i o n . WHAT COUNTS B a s i c a l l y , t h e r e a r e two d e c i s i o n s t o be made about each b e h a v i o r . F i r s t , s h o u l d each e n t r y on t h e d a t a s h e e t s be c o u n t e d a t a l l ? Second, i f c o u n t e d , how i s each b e h a v i o r t o be c l a s s i f i e d ? W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e f i r s t p o i n t — w h e t h e r t h e b e h a v i o r s h o u l d be c o u n t e d a t a l l — t h e r e a r e two s p e c i f i c t y p e s o f a c t i v i t y w h i c h a r e t o be e x c l u d e d . The f i r s t i s any a c t i o n w h ich a r i s e s from membership i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s , i . e . o c c u r s w i t h i n t h e normal r o l e framework o f such membership. T h i s i s n e c e s s a r y t o a v o i d b e i n g t a u t o l o g i c a l because my sample s e l e c t i o n i s based on number o f memberships o f a c o u n t r y i n t h e s e o r g a n i z a t i o n s , and I w i s h a t a l l c o s t s t o a v o i d c o u n t i n g the same t h i n g t w i c e . ( A c t i o n t o form a new o r g a n i z a t i o n i s c o n s i d e r e d c o u n t a b l e , however. I n 1963, t h e A d d i s Ababa C o n f e r e n c e , which r e s u l t e d i n t h e f o r m a t i o n o f t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n o f A f r i c a n U n i t y , i s a case i n p o i n t . Such p a r t i c i p a t i o n s h o u l d be c o u n t e d as such was f u l l y o p e r -a t i n g , w i t h s p e c i f i e d r o l e b e h a v i o r s on t h e p a r t o f i t s members.) The o t h e r t y p e o f b e h a v i o r which I w i s h t o e x c l u d e i s p u r e l y p a s s i v e a c t i v i t y . I f c o u n t r y X, f o r example, i s v i s i t e d by t h e c h i e f o f s t a t e o f c o u n t r y Y, t h e h o s t i n g duty o f X i s p a s s i v e and hence e x c l u d e d , i f by a l l appearance t h e o n l y r e a s o n f o r t h e v i s i t by Y t o X i s t h e p r e s e n c e o f Y i n t h e g e n e r a l a r e a . On t h e o t h e r hand, i f h o s t c o u n t r y X has t a k e n t h e i n i t i a t i v e and i n v i t e d t h e head o f Y t o v i s i t , s uch a b e h a v i o r would be co u n t e d . What s h o u l d be counted? The most o b v i o u s c r i t e r i o n i s t h a t t h e a c t i o n must be p o l i t i c a l . A g a i n a d a p t i n g from E a s t o n , I am d e f i n i n g " p o l i t i c a l " a c t s as a u t h o r i t a t i v e a l l o -c a t i o n s o f v a l u e d r e s o u r c e s f o r t h e whole s o c i e t y (of which the government i s a g e n t ) . Thus a government, i n t h e i n t e r -n a t i o n a l a r e n a , can a l l o c a t e i n f o r m a t i o n , economic r e s o u r c e s 103 o r f u n d s , s o v e r e i g n t y , freedom o f a c t i o n , manpower, o r p o l i t i c a l s t a t u s , w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e n a t i o n ' s p o s i t i o n o r s t a t u s i n t h e h i e r a r c h y o f w o r l d n a t i o n s ( i f such e x i s t s ) . S e e k i n g a i d , f o r example, i s an a l l o c a t i o n o f a v a l u e d r e s o u r c e , s t a t u s , and g i v i n g a i d i s an a l l o c a t i o n o f a v a l u e d r e s o u r c e , economic o r manpower o r i n f o r m a t i o n , depending upon the t y p e o f a i d . A r e m i n d e r t h a t t h e n a t i o n ' s e n t i r e a i d program i s n o t b e i n g s c r u t i n i z e d ; o n l y t h e new agreements which d e v e l o p e d i n t h e y e a r i n q u e s t i o n a r e o f i n t e r e s t , because t h e s e new a c t s o f a i d - g r a n t i n g o r - s e e k i n g can be c o n s i d e r e d as c h a n g i n g t h e system o r e nvironment. A g o v e r n -ment which a r t i c u l a t e s s u p p o r t f o r a n o t h e r government o r f o r a peace p r o p o s a l o r whatever, i s a l l o c a t i n g t h e v a l u e d r e -s o u r c e , s t a t u s , a t minimum. That t h e a l l o c a t i o n must be f o r t h e whole s o c i e t y which t h e government r e p r e s e n t s , must be c l a r i f i e d . Here, the c o n c e p t s o f ' d i r e c t and immediate' r e s u l t s e n t e r i n t o t h e p i c t u r e . (See below, f o r e l a b o r a t i o n . ) I n o t h e r words, i f the government, as agent f o r a group o f t i m b e r merchants, c o n c l u d e s a t i m b e r t r a d e agreement, t h e government would be a c t i n g , n o t f o r the whole s o c i e t y , b u t f o r t h e merchants. U l t i m a t e l y , o f c o u r s e , t h e e n t i r e s o c i e t y ' s economy might b e n e f i t , b u t n o t 'immediately'. Trade agreements a r e t h e most d i f f i c u l t a r e a t o d e a l w i t h , from t h i s s t a n d p o i n t : a r e they p r i m a r i l y economic, o r p r i m a r i l y p o l i t i c a l ? A n o t h e r view o f ' p o l i t i c a l ' b e h a v i o r s must be i n c l u d e d among c r i t e r i a f o r c o u n t i n g . S i m p l y p u t , one government must be d e a l i n g w i t h a n o t h e r government. F o r example, i n 1963, t h e p r e s i d e n t o f B r a z i l v i s i t e d t h e Pope i n Rome. T h i s i s e x c l u d e d from ' p o l i t i c a l ' a c t i v i t y , because i t i s n o t i n t e r -n a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r , b u t r a t h e r s o c i a l o r c u l t u r a l . A n o t h e r c r i t e r i o n f o r a c c e p t a n c e o f a b e h a v i o r must be t h a t t h e a c t i o n i s i n i t i a t i v e o r 'new'. F o r example, a d e c i s i o n t o go t o war would be c o u n t e d as a b e h a v i o r , b u t t h e f i r s t movement o f t r o o p s , i n t h e wake o f t h a t d e c i s i o n , would n o t be c o u n t e d because i t forms p a r t o f t h e same ev e n t . T h i s i s a n o t h e r d i f f i c u l t a r e a f o r c o d i n g d e c i s i o n . A s p e c i f i c r e i n f o r c e m e n t t o an e v e n t may be c o u n t e d because i t forms p a r t o f a s p e c i f i c , d e f i n i t e a c t , r a t h e r than a ' n a t u r a l f o l l o w - u p ' , b u t t h i s d e c i s i o n must be made i n each c a s e . I n o u r war example, s i g n i f i c a n t new a c t s t o be c o u n t e d m ight i n c l u d e c o n f e r e n c e s o f heads o f s t a t e s which a r i s e from th e war, o r t h e a c t i v i t y o f a l l y s e e k i n g , s u g g e s t i o n o f new peace terms, e t c . , b u t making propaganda a g a i n s t t h e enemy would n o t count because i t c o u l d be seen as a n a t u r a l p a r t o f the e n t i r e p r o c e s s . (Troop movements which a r e u n d e r t a k e n as a form o f w a r n i n g d u r i n g a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n would be c o u n t e d — a s a w a r n i n g — h o w e v e r . ) 104 One o t h e r a r e a where t h i s p r o b l e m a r i s e s i s i n t h e e x p u l s i o n o f ' s p i e s ' between e a s t and west o r i e n t e d c o u n t r i e s . I t i s p a r t o f t h e ' r u l e s o f t h e game' f o r t h e a c c u s e d c o u n t r y t o t a k e r e t a l i a t o r y a c t i o n by e x p e l l i n g a n a t i o n a l o f t h e a c c u s i n g c o u n t r y , g u i l t y o r n o t . Such r e t a l i a t o r y e x p u l s i o n s s h o u l d n o t c o u n t , because i t s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d p a r t o f t h e same e v e n t , w i t h i n i t i a t i v e h a v i n g been t a k e n by t h e o t h e r c o u n t r y . ( F u r t h e r t o e s p i o n a g e c h a r g e s , t h e spy a c t i n g i n t h e m i l i e u i s p a r t o f t h e system. Only t h e i n t e r r u p t i o n o f e s p i o n a g e a c t i v i t i e s by t h e a c c u s i n g c o u n t r y s h o u l d be c o u n t e d , i n l i n e w i t h t h e c o n c e p t o f system as used h e r e ; t h e i n t e r -r u p t i o n o f s p y i n g c o n s t i t u t e s a change t o t h e system, a l t h o u g h i t m i g ht be a temporary one o n l y . ) One o t h e r a r e a o f a c c e p t a b i l i t y remains t o be com-mented upon: t h e a r e a o f c r e d i b i l i t y . One must make an assumption and a p p l y i t c o n s i s t e n t l y t h r o u g h o u t , f o r c o d i n g p u r p o s e s . One can assume t h a t a l l c h a r g e s where no outcomes a r e r e p o r t e d , and t h a t a l l ' i n f o r m e d s o u r c e ' r e p o r t s a r e t r u e , o r t h a t t h e y a r e f a l s e . Because o f t h e s t a t u r e o f t h e s o u r c e s used i n d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , and because o f t h e a p p a r e n t l y g r e a t e r danger t h r o u g h assuming f a l s i t y o f l o s s o f i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e assumption i n t h i s p r o j e c t i s one o f t r u t h . Where i t was n o t e d i n t h e i n d e x e s , a c o n v i c t i o n f o l l o w i n g a spy c h a r g e was, i n t u r n , n o t e d on t h e d a t a s h e e t s . Where c o n f l i c t i n g c l a i m s were i n c l u d e d i n t h e i n d e x e s , t h e s e , t o o , were n o t e d ; i n t h i s c a s e , i t i s up t o t h e c o d e r s t o judge which o f t h e two competing and r e p o r t e d c l a i m s would seem t o have g r e a t e r v a l i d i t y . T h i s s e c t i o n has d e a l t w i t h t h e i n c l u s i o n and ex-c l u s i o n r u l e s f o r d a t a — w h e t h e r t o count something o r n o t t o c o u n t i t . I f n o t c o u n t e d , n o t e why; o r i f c o n t e n t i o u s b u t c o u n t e d anyway, a l s o n o t e t h e r e a s o n . We move now t o s e l f -o r i e n t e d v e r s u s s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r , t h e main t a s k o f c o d i n g . CRITERIA FOR CATEGORIZING The c h i e f c r i t e r i o n f o r d e c i d i n g whether th e b e h a v i o r f a l l s under t h e s e l f - i n t e r e s t o r s y s t e m - i n t e r e s t c a t e g o r y i s i t s appearance t o have d i r e c t and immediate r e l e v a n c e t o t h e v i a b i l i t y o f t h e c o u n t r y . By v i a b i l i t y i s meant the s t a t u s and f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e n a t i o n s t a t e a t t h e moment i n time c o n -c e r n e d ; n a t i o n s t a t e s a r e assumed h e r e t o be a c t i n g i n t h e i r s e l f - i n t e r e s t i f t h e y seek t o m a i n t a i n , o r t o i n c r e a s e (maxi-mize) d i r e c t l y t h e i r c o n d i t i o n . T h i s i s a g e n e r a l c o n c e p t , n o t o p e r a t i o n a l l y s t a t e d , b u t i t i s i n t h i s a r e a t h a t c o d e r s ' judgement i s i m p o r t a n t . To use an. example, adherence t o t h e n u c l e a r t e s t ban t r e a t y o f 1963 i s n o t o f d i r e c t and immediate c o n c e r n t o a n a t i o n . I t u l t i m a t e l y may be o f g r e a t e s t r e l e v a n c e 105 o f c o u r s e , b u t o n l y i n d i r e c t l y and o n l y a t some time i n t h e f u t u r e . N o r m a l i z i n g d i p l o m a t i c r e l a t i o n s , on t h e o t h e r hand, o r r e c o g n i z i n g a new government o f a c o u n t r y (a 'shopkeeper' f u n c t i o n , p e rhaps) i s seen as b e i n g o f d i r e c t and immediate c o n c e r n , i n t h e sense t h a t d a y - t o - d a y f u n c t i o n i n g i s r e t u r n t o a more normal s t a t e . To c i t e a n o t h e r example, a n a t i o n which f i l e s a p r o t e s t t o a n o t h e r c o u n t r y o v e r a b o r d e r i n c u r s i o n i s a c t i n g i n a manner o b v i o u s l y c l a s s i f i e d as s e l f - o r i e n t e d — o f d i r e c t and immediate i m p o r t a n c e t o t h e v i a b i l i t y o f t h e government o r c o u n t r y . S e n d i n g a p r o t e s t n o t e o v e r a m a t t e r o f p r i n c i p l e w hich o c c u r r e d i n a d i s t a n t p l a c e , on t h e o t h e r hand, would be w o r l d system o r i e n t e d . S y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r g e n e r a l l y f a l l s i n t o two main t y p e s : a f f i l i a t i v e , o r s u p p o r t i v e , as seen h e r e . The l a t t e r t y p e o f a c t i o n can be e i t h e r s y m b o l i c o r m a t e r i a l , i n terms o f r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n by t h e n a t i o n which u n d e r t a k e s t h e a c t i o n . (Demands can a l s o be made on t h e system, b u t f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s s t u d y , such d e m a n d s — f o r example, f o r a i d — w o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d s e l f - o r i e n t e d , as a l l y - s e e k i n g o r a l l y - r e i n f o r c i n g would be s e l f - o r i e n t e d . ) By w o r l d s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d , I do n o t mean o n l y " t h e " e n t i r e system; subsystem o r r e g i o n a l c o n s i d e r -a t i o n s would q u a l i f y as s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d , as l o n g as t h e y c a n n o t be c o u n t e d as a m a t t e r o f d i r e c t and immediate s e l f -i n t e r e s t . F o r s e l f - o r i e n t e d o r ' i n n e r d i r e c t e d ' b e h a v i o r s , code " I " . F o r system o r sub-system (or 'ot h e r d i r e c t e d ' ) b e h a v i o r s , code "0". I f the b e h a v i o r i s n o t t o be c o u n t e d , l e a v e t h e c o d i n g space b l a n k . And i n t h e ca s e o f any d i f f i c u l t o r con-t e n t i o u s d e c i s i o n , p l e a s e be c e r t a i n t h a t t h e r e a s o n s f o r t h e d e c i s i o n a r e n o t e d down. P a r t o f t h e purpose o f t h i s p r o j e c t c e n t r e s on ex-p l o r i n g t h e u t i l i t y o f t h e news r e p o r t i n d e x e s ; hence, no o u t s i d e s o u r c e i s t o be c o n s u l t e d f o r c l a r i f i c a t i o n o r sub-s t a n t i a t i o n o f t h e e n t r i e s on the d a t a s h e e t s . 2. Twelve C o d i n g Rules D e r i v e d by t h e Coders i n R e s o l v i n g Disagreements Between The Two P a n e l s 1. Any announcement o f a p o l i c y o f non-alignment i s coded as s e l f - i n t e r e s t , because t h e p o l i c y b a s i c a l l y c o n c e r n s d e f e n s e . 2. Any o f f e r o f b e n e f i t s by one n a t i o n t o a n o t h e r i s coded as s e l f - o r i e n t a t i o n (an attempt by t h e o f f e r i n g c o u n t r y t o g e n e r a t e g o o d w i l l w i t h the i n t e n d e d r e c i p i e n t ) u n l e s s a b s o l u t e l y no c o n d i t i o n s o r ' s t r i n g s ' can be d e t e c t e d o r i m p l i e d . 106 3. A h o s t c o u n t r y i s assumed t o have i n v i t e d a v i s i t i n g head o f s t a t e , e x c e p t f o r s p e c i a l o c c a s i o n s such as a n n i v e r -s a r i e s when t h e v i s i t o r m i ght be s i m p l y e x p e c t e d t o a t t e n d . Thus, v i s i t s t o h o s t i n g c a p i t a l s a r e i n c l u d e d as a c t i v e b e h a v i o r s f o r the h o s t n a t i o n . 4. I n a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n , each a c t i o n a t t h e d i p l o m a t i c l e v e l s h a l l be c o n s i d e r e d a new i n p u t , s i n c e t h e s u c c e s s o f any o f t h e s e a c t i o n s would a l t e r t h e e q u i l i b r i u m o f t h e c o n f l i c t . 5. I n a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n , v i s i t s by i n t e r m e d i a r i e s f r o m non-combattant powers a r e judged t o be p a s s i v e f o r t h e h o s t c o u n t r y , s i n c e t h e i n t e n d e d m e d i a t o r s i n a l l p r o -b a b i l i t y were n o t f o r m a l l y i n v i t e d t o v i s i t . 6. Attempts by o f f i c i a l s o f non-combattant s t a t e s t o m e d i a t e a c o n f l i c t w i l l be c o u n t e d s e p a r a t e l y i f , f o r example, e n t r i e s a r e made f i r s t o f an attempt t o b r i n g t o g e t h e r t h e d i s p u t a n t s , t h e n l a t e r o f t h e m e d i a t o r p r e s i d i n g o v e r s u c h a m e e t i n g . 7. A c t i o n s which a r e subsequent t o p r e v i o u s moves by a c o u n t r y a r e e x c l u d e d i f t h e y o c c u r r e d w i t h i n t h r e e months o f t h e f i r s t a c t i o n , and c o u n t e d i f t h e y o c c u r r e d more t h a n t h r e e months a f t e r t h e p r e v i o u s a c t i o n , s i n c e most 'subsequent' t y p e s o f b e h a v i o r o c c u r v e r y s h o r t l y a f t e r t h e f i r s t move and a p assage o f t h r e e months i s c o n s t r u e d as r e q u i r i n g a new attempt t o be made. 8. Where a n a t i o n n e g o t i a t e s w i t h f o r e i g n p r i v a t e companies t o compensate them f o r n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n , t h e a c t i o n i s c o n s i d e r e d p o l i t i c a l because o f i m p l i c i t i n t e r - g o v e r n -m e n t a l r e t a l i a t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s . 9. I n b e h a v i o r s i n v o l v i n g t h e exchange o f t e c h n i c a l i n f o r -m a t i o n , c o d i n g on s e l f - o r s y s t e m - o r i e n t a t i o n i s based on a p p a r e n t e q u a l i t y o f t h e p a r t n e r s t o t h e t r a n s a c t i o n . I n o t h e r words, i f t h e n a t i o n i n q u e s t i o n s t a n d s t o g a i n more t h a n t h e p a r t n e r c o u n t r y , t h e a c t i o n i s c a t e g o r i z e d as s e l f i n t r e s t ; i f t h e g a i n be l e s s , i t i s system o r i e n t a t i o n . 10. C o d i n g o f d i p l o m a t i c v i s i t s i s based on t h e same c o n c e p t as t h a t o u t l i n e d i n Rule 9: i f t h e r e i s no a p p a r e n t g a i n f o r the v i s i t i n g head o f s t a t e , t h e c a t e g o r i z a t i o n i s system o r i e n t a t i o n ; i f t h e r e i s any a p p a r e n t g a i n , t h e c o d i n g i s s e l f o r i e n t a t i o n . 11. A c t i o n t o send w a r s h i p s on a g o o d w i l l c r u i s e abroad i s n o t c o u n t e d , s i n c e t r a i n i n g c r u i s e s must be c a r r i e d o u t i n any e v e n t . 107 12. A n a t i o n which j o i n s an i n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n whose p r i m a r y purpose i s n o t p o l i t i c a l , e.g. O.E.C.D., i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be a c t i n g p o l i t i c a l l y n e v e r t h e l e s s , because t h e n a t i o n changes t h e i n t e r a c t i o n p a t t e r n among members o f t h e p o l i t i c a l system as a s e c o n d a r y e f f e c t . 3. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C o d i n g Disagreement, by B e h a v i o r Type, Between P a n e l s To compute t h e s e v a l u e s , t h e r e s e a r c h e r coded a l l 581 b e h a v i o r a l d a t a e n t r i e s by t y p e , and composed a f r e q u e n c y c h a r t t o d i s p l a y g r a p h i c a l l y where t h e problems tended t o l i e . Because o f p r o c e d u r a l e r r o r s , no m e a n i n g f u l d i s c u s s i o n o f r e l i a b i l i t y c a n be o f f e r e d . However, t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e d i s p l a y s t h e a r e a s where i n s u f f i c i e n t i n s t r u c t i o n s o r d e f i n i -t i o n s r e s u l t e d i n a n o t i c e a b l e d i s p a r i t y between p a n e l s . U. b m PANEL TWO U- b rr\ Sys+< a b rv\ E •'<• ; v v * ** 1 1 i f ! t * /24\ \ \. v 18 4 1 17! 2 3 jr. 10 S \ * j 5 1 - — — v ;1L8\ 8 4 19 3 ;i26B; 33 "ils-e n + m 'uB-Ouj 10 5 Y U s 3 y N V c 3 , "2 + t 0 2 5 >13\ it. r i e « m + e d 2 ,4 \ To =b£-5 U 7/ IJ-2-63 "^ril -16 13 "S~0 7/3 u - u n i l a t e r a l b - b i l a t e r a l w - m u l t i l a t e r a l A P P E N D I X D : S P E C I M E N D A T A S H E E T 1 0 8 year: 1 9 6 3 - _ > _ _ _ > I R A N [ P E R S I A . I R N ) F K N L on C Y T code date b ehavior Y A T 'I | F E B ^ I R N R E C O G N I Z E S N E W G O V T I N I R Q X ! "J j J A N 2b E X P E L S A T T A C H E T O U A R E M B A S S Y F O R D I S T R I B U T I N G ' S E 0 1T l O U S ' L E A F L E T S X 1 0 M A Y 26 S H A H S U C C E S S F U L L Y M E D I A T E S A F G / P A K D I S P U T E ? P E A C E T A L K S H E L D I N I R N C A P I T A L X X 0 I M A Y P R E S I D E N T O F 1 N D V I S I T S I R N X 1 1 J U N E 6 B L A M E S U A R F O R R I O T S I N I R N O V E R IRN D O M E S T I C R E F O R I S X ; 1 J U N E 12 S H A H A N N O U N C E S U S R P R O P A G A N D A A T T A C K S S T O P P E D , A F T E R I R N A S S U R E D T H A T I T N O T B E S I T E O F M I S S I L E B A S E X 1 O C T 18 F R N P R E S . D E G A U L L E V I S I T S ? N O R E P O R T R E C O M M U N I Q U E F R N A N N O U N C E S AID T H R U C R E D I T S T O I R N • } X X I 1 O C T 7 S H A H A N N O U N C E S T E C H N I C A L A S 1 S T A N C E P A C T W l T H U S R T O B E E X P A N D E D X i 0 A U G y A D H E R E S T O N U C L E A R T E S T B A N T R E A T Y X 0 0 O C T 3 Q U E E N O F N T H V I S I T S X I I N O V 17 B R E Z H N E V O F U S R V I S I T S • X i 1 O E C 12 | R N G E T S U S R T O P A Y 1/2 D A M A G E S F O R I R N S U R V E Y P L A N S H O T D O W N A C C I D E N T A L L Y E X 1 \ J i * Page t ) — j — 1 1 i • L. 0 page # 109 APPENDIX E TESTS FOR BIAS IN BEHAVIORAL DATA SOURCES The i n v e s t i g a t o r d e t e c t e d a p o s s i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p between s i z e o f c o u n t r y and/or c o v e r a g e g i v e n t o news o f t h e c o u n t r y , on t h e one hand, and s i z e o f s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r s c o r e , on t h e o t h e r . W i t h a number o f p o s s i b i l i t i e s i n mind, t h e d e c i s i o n was made t o attempt t o t e s t a h y p o t h e s i s t o t h i s e f f e c t . The h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t n a t i o n s ' s c o r e s , f o r p e r c e n t a g e o f s y s t e m - o r i e n t e d b e h a v i o r , t a k e n o v e r t h e e n t i r e sample, i n c r e a s e i n v e r s e l y t o space d e v o t e d t o them i n t h e two b e h a v i o r a l d a t a s o u r c e s . Measurement o f v a r i a b l e X, t h e b e h a v i o r a l s c o r e s , was l e f t unchanged from t h a t used t o t e s t t h e main r e s e a r c h hypo-t h e s i s . V a r i a b l e Y, space d e v o t e d t o each sample c o u n t r y i n t h e New York Times Index, was measured i n c o l u m n - c e n t i m e t e r s , because t h i s s c a l e c o n v e r t s e a s i l y t o d e c i m a l f r a c t i o n s . V a r i a b l e Z, space d e v o t e d t o each c o u n t r y i n t h e Index (only) o f K e e s i n g ' s Contemporary A r c h i v e s , was s i m i l a r l y measured i n c o l u m n - c e n t i m e t e r s . I t must be n o t e d t h a t t h e i n d e x f o r K e e s i n g ' s (and, i n f a c t , t h e e n t i r e volume) c o v e r s t h e two-year p e r i o d , 1963-64. L i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n was l o s t o r g a i n e d , however, by t a k i n g t h e measure o f t h e two-year p e r i o d , s i n c e t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e e d i t o r s c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d f a i l y s t a b l e o v e r t h e s h o r t r u n . 110 The Spearman rank o r d e r c o r r e l a t i o n t e s t was chosen t o a n a l y z e t h e d a t a s t a t i s t i c a l l y . A l t h o u g h t h i s t e s t i s n o t t h e s t r o n g e s t p o s s i b l e c o r r e l a t i o n a l t e c h n i q u e , t h e r e s e a r c h e r f e l t t h a t i t was a p p r o p r i a t e t o t h e v e r y l o o s e measure o f d e v o t e d s p a c e , and a p p r o p r i a t e t o the p urpose o f e x a m i n i n g , i n an e x p l o r a t o r y way, a s u b - h y p o t h e s i s a r i s i n g from t h e main p r o j e c t . The two t e s t s a r e s e t o u t i n t h e t a b l e s f o l l o w i n g . Formulas used t o c o n d u c t th e t e s t were t a k e n from S i d n e y S i e g e l , N o n p a r a m e t r i c S t a t i s t i c s f o r t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s (New Y ork: M c G r a w - H i l l , 1956), p. 210, w i t h r e s p e c t t o computing th e r s , and p. 212 w i t h r e s p e c t t o s i g n i f i c a n c e . The more complex f o r m u l a was d e c i d e d upon because t h r e e t i e d r a n k s o c c u r r e d i n t h e X v a r i a b l e — o n e o f t h e t i e s i n v o l v i n g t h r e e c o u n t r i e s — a n d t h e s c o r e was checked f o r approximate a c c u r a c y by r e p e r f o r m i n g the t e s t u s i n g t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l f o r -mula. I l l 1. B e h a v i o r S c o r e v s . New York Times Index Space N a t i o n S t a t e Rank on Rank on 2 Column X Y Y-X (Y-X) C e n t i m e t e r s Ghana 1 5 -4 16.00 16.6 Sudan 2 2 0 0.00 2.1 Mexico 3 14 -11 121.00 40.5 B u l g a r i a 4.5 6 -1.5 2.25 20.9 P h i l i p p i n e s 4.5 7 -2.5 6.25 21.6 Canada 6 24 -18 324.00 162.7 Y u g o s l a v i a 7 23 -16 256.00 118.1 Sweden 8 10 -2 4.00 26.2 E t h i o p i a 9 9 0 0.00 23.4 B r a z i l 11 20 - 9 ,81.00 93.1 C z e c h o s l o v a k i a 11 15 -4 16.00 41.4 M a l i 11 1 10 100.00 0.9 U n i t e d Arab R. 13 18 -5 25.00 65.8 F i n l a n d 14.5 8 6.5 42.25 21.8 N i g e r i a 14.5 4 10.5 110.25 14.2 A r g e n t i n a 16 22 -6 36.00 98.4 30.9 A u s t r a l i a 17 11 6 36.00 I r a n 18 12 6 36.00 35. 5 Japan 19 19 0 0.00 78.2 P o l a n d 20 17 3 9.00 50. 6 I s r a e l 21 21 0 0.00 97.5 Morocco 22 16 6 36.00 41.7 I n d i a 23 26 -3 9.00 287. 7 Cuba 24 27 -3 9.00 613.0 A l g e r i a 25 25 0 0.00 170.0 S a u d i A r a b i a 26 3 23 529.00 11. 0 Turkey 27 13 14 196.00 37.0 2000.00 112 2. B e h a v i o r S c o r e v s . K e e s i n g ' s Index Space N a t i o n S t a t e Rank on Rank on 2 Column X Z Z-X (Z-X) C e n t i m e t e r s Ghana 1 6 Sudan 2 1 Mexico 3 9 B u l g a r i a 4.5 13 P h i l i p p i n e s 4.5 5 Canada 6 24 Y u g o s l a v i a 7 20 Sweden 8 7 E t h i o p i a 9 3 B r a z i l 11 21 C z e c h o s l o v a k i a 11 12 M a l i 11 2 U n i t e d Arab R. 13 25 F i n l a n d 14.5 11 N i g e r i a 14.5 16 A r g e n t i n a 16 8 23 A u s t r a l i a 17 I r a n 18 15 Japan 19 17 P o l a n d 20 10 I s r a e l 21 119 Morocco 22 18 I n d i a 23 27 Cuba 24 14 A l g e r i a 25 26 S a u d i A r a b i a 26 4 Turkey 27 22 -5 1 -6 -8. -0. -18 -13 1 6 -10 -1 9 -12 3. -1.5 8 -6 3 2 10 2 4 -4 10 -1 22 5 25.00 1.00 36.00 72.75 0.25 324.00 169.00 1.00 36.00 100.00 1.00 81.00 144.00 12.25 2.25 64.00 36.00 9.00 4.00 100.00 4.00 16.00 16.00 100.00 1.00 484.00 25.00 ,4 .2 ,1 ,6 16.6 2.1 21.4 33.9 15.3 105, 54, 19.0 11.2 62 32 6.3 108.2 30.5 37.9 20.0 83.9 37. 47. 23, 48, 47, 237. 37.1 114.9 14.7 64.6 ,4 ,7 ,3 .3 .9 .4 Zd ± = 1864.00 F o r b o t h t e s t s , t h e c o r r e c t i n g s c o r e f o r t i e s , t 3 - t 12 = 2 ~ 2 12 - 3 + 12 2 3 - 2 12 (See S i e g e l , p. 207) Z> 2 -21T 2 = ZY2 - 2 T 2 = 1638 -£ z 2 "IT 2 _ 1638 - 3 = 1635 - 0 = 1638 1638 - 0 = 1638 113 1 . X v s . Y: -X 2 + XY2 ~ Xd 2 - T 2 = 1635+1638-2000 = 1273 r s ~ 2~)Jx2 y 2 2)) 1635 x 1638 3272 .988 389 t = r 2. X v s . Z: _ x 2 + 2 z 2 - I d 2 = .389 25 ,848726 = 2 . 1 1 r s = 2 ) J x 2 z 2 S i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .025 l e v e l , o n e - t a i l e d . T 2 = 1635+1638-1864 = 1409 2 ^ 1 6 3 5 x 1638 3272 .988 ,430 N - 2 25 t = r s i . 2 1 - r s 4301! ' = 2 - 3 9 814239 S i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .025 l e v e l , o n e - t a i l e d . As t o b o t h b e h a v i o r a l d a t a s o u r c e s , t h e h y p o t h e s i s was s u p p o r t e d . No d e t a i l e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e meaning o f t h e s e r e s u l t s w i l l be g i v e n h e r e . Some p o s s i b l e i m p l i c a t i o n s a r e d i s c u s s e d i n t h e main body o f t h e r e p o r t , toward t h e end o f P a r t III. 114 Out o f i n t e r e s t — i n p a r t , t o check on t h e o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t t h e New York Times Index and K e e s i n g ' s seemed t o g i v e d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e c o v e r a g e t o a r e a s and c o u n t r i e s i n w h i c h t h e p u b l i s h i n g c o u n t r i e s had a s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t — a Spearman rank c o r r e l a t i o n was c o n d u c t e d a l s o on t h e Y v s . Z v a r i a b l e s . No t i e s b e i n g i n v o l v e d , t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l Spearman ra n k f o r m u l a 6 Idj 2 ( r s = 1 - N J - N ) was used. $"he c o e f f i c i e n t o b t a i n e d was .692, a v a l u e which i s s i g n i f i c a n t beyond .0005, o n e - t a i l e d ( t = 4.7974 w i t h d . f . = N-2 = 25). F u r t h e r t e s t s were n o t p u r s u e d on t h e d e t a i l o f the u n e q u a l r a n k s , because such s t u d y i s p e r i p h e r a l t o t h e main t o p i c under i n v e s t i g a t i o n . However, o b s e r v a t i o n o f t h e v a l u e s i n t h e two main appendix t a b l e s p r o v i d e s some i n t e r e s t i n g — a l t h o u g h somewhat commonsense—comparisons. F o r example, the Times' g r e a t e s t c o v e r a g e went t o Cuba, i n t h e y e a r a f t e r t h e M i s s i l e C r i s i s , w i t h 613 column c e n t i m e t e r s o f t h e Index d e v o t e d t o an ex-h a u s t i v e 'blow by blow' a c c o u n t o f e v e n t s . K e e s i n g ' s , on t h e o t h e r hand, d e v o t e d o n l y 37.1 column c e n t i m e t e r s t o Cuba f o r t h e two y e a r s , combined. Ranks f o r Cuba were 27 and 14, r e s p e c t i v e l y . K e e s i n g ' s gave s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n t o t r a d i t i o n a l B r i t i s h a r e a s and i s s u e s , i n c l u d i n g I n d i a , A u s t r a l i a , and o t h e r Commonwealth n a t i o n s , t h e m i d d l e e a s t , and A l g e r i a , whereas t h e Times Index p a i d somewhat l e s s a t t e n t i o n , p r o -p o r t i o n a t e l y s p e a k i n g . Canada, as might be e x p e c t e d , ranked t h e same on b o t h v a r i a b l e s Y and Z, 24th. A r g e n t i n a , a 115 t r a d i t i o n a l a r e a o f i n t e r e s t t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , r a n k e d 22nd on Y and 8th on Z. Based on column c e n t i m e t e r s space d e v o t e d t o each sample c o u n t r y , t h e o b s e r v a t i o n s made w h i l e w o r k i n g w i t h t h e d a t a a r e borne o u t . As a s i d e i s s u e , i t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t K e e s i n g ' s , a l t h o u g h u t i l i z i n g s o u r c e s from a l l o v e r t h e w o r l d , d i s p l a y s a b i a s j u s t as B r i t i s h as t h e D a i l y M i r r o r m i ght be e x p e c t e d t o show. E x a m i n a t i o n o f t h i s t o p i c was n o t i n t e n d e d t o be ' s c i e n t i f i c ' n e c e s s a r i l y . I t was u n d e r t a k e n s i m p l y t o d e t e r -mine whether any r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x i s t w hich might w a r r a n t f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n . Such r e l a t i o n s h i p s have been found, and i n v e s t i g a t i o n on a more r i g o r o u s p l a n e i s seen t o be w a r r a n t e d because o f t h e need t o know o f a l l p o s s i b l e s y s t e m a t i c e r r o r i n i n d e x s o u r c e s o f d a t a . 

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