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A study of the predictive value of the battery of psychological tests used by the Counselling Office… Luyendyk, Walter Rigby 1952

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A STUDY OF THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE BATTERY OF PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS USED BY THE COUNSELLING O F F I C E OF THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH  COLUMBIA  by WALTER RIGBY LUYENDYK  A Thesis  submitted i n P a r t i a l  Fulfilment of  The R e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e Degree o f MASTER OF ARTS in  t h e Department of  PHILOSOPHY AND  PSYCHOLOGY  We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the standard required from candidates f o r the degree of MASTER OF ARTS  Members of the Department of Philosophy and Psychology The u n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a S e p t e m b e r , 1952 •  A STUDY OP THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE BATTERY OF PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS USED BY THE COUNSELLING OFFICE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.  Abstract The study was undertaken i n an attempt to p r o v i d e the c o u n s e l l o r s o f the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia C o u n s e l l i n g O f f i c e w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n as t o the p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e o f t h r e e p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s used i n the O f f i c e b a t tery. These t e s t s were: 1. The Henmon-Nelson Tests o f Mental A b i l i t y For C o l l e g e Students - Form A. 2. The Purdue Placement Test i n E n g l i s h For C o l l e g e s and S e n i o r High Schools - Form A. 3. The " J " Mathematics T e s t , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. S i n c e the t e s t r e s u l t s were b e i n g used p r i m a r i l y t o a s s i s t i n the c o u n s e l l i n g o f incoming freshmen, the p r e d i c t i v e values of the t e s t s were determined i n terms of f i r s t y e a r marks - Average F i n a l , E n g l i s h Composition F i n a l and Mathematics 101 F i n a l marks. A sample of 150 students was chosen i n which a l l v o l u n t e e r e d f o r t e s t i n g and c o u n s e l l i n g I n the summer o f 1950 and had completed the compulsory E n g l i s h courses and the e l e c t i v e Mathematics 101 course as p a r t o f a f u l l f i r s t year's work d u r i n g the 1950-51 u n i v e r s i t y s e s s i o n . By v a r i o u s c o r r e l a t i o n methods, c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n were c a l c u l a t e d between the v a r i a b l e s and the c r i t e r i a s i n g l y and i n a l l p o s s i b l e combinations. From t h e s e , r e g r e s s i o n equations were c o n s t r u c t e d and the most u s e f u l transposed t o graphs f o r ease i n u s e . R e s u l t s o f the i n v e s t i g a t i o n were t y p i c a l o f those r e p o r t e d by most authors who had conducted s i m i l a r s t u d i e s . The Henmon-Nelson T e s t , a t e s t o f g e n e r a l i n t e l l i g e n c e , was found t o be o f l i t t l e use i n p r e d i c t i o n when used a l o n e i n terms o f c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . I t was found t o be of some v a l u e , however, when used i n combination w i t h the o t h e r variables© Considered on the b a s i s o f expectancy t a b l e s , the extremes o f t e s t ' s d i s t r i b u t i o n were h e l p f u l i n i s o l a t i n g the extremes o f the c r i t e r i a .  Abstract  (Cont'd,)  The P u r d u e P l a c e m e n t T e s t a l o n e was t h e b e s t p r e d i c t o r o f t h e E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n F i n a l mark, a n d , w i t h t h e J M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t , was t h e b e s t p r e d i c t o r o f t h e A v e r age F i n a l mark. The most u s e f u l s i n g l e v a r i a b l e p r e d i c t i n g t h e l a t t e r mark was f o u n d t o b e t h e " J M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t . P r e d i c t i o n o f t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l mark was v e r y d i f f i c u l t a n d u n r e l i a b l e b e c a u s e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n was n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y normal. n  n  n  Nowhere i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e w e r e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s r e p o r t e d t h a t b e t t e r e d those o f t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n , s u g g e s t i n g that the three t e s t s p r e s e n t l y i n use were p r o d u c i n g r e s u l t s t y p i c a l o f s i m i l a r measures u s e d e l s e where i n p r e d i c t i o n . An a d e q u a t e c o m p a r i s o n w o u l d o n l y be p o s s i b l e i f l i k e l y a l t e r n a t i v e s were u s e d o n t h e same sample I n t h e same s e t t i n g w i t h t h e same c o n t r o l s a n d t e c h n i q u e s as were" t h o s e I n t h i s s t u d y .  V a r i o u s r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r s t u d y were listed. The most i m p o r t a n t o f them was one c o n c e r n i n g t h e p r e d i c t i v e value of the h i g h s c h o o l r e c o r d , which, i n the l i t e r a t u r e , e x c e l l e d psychological test r e s u l t s i n importance. A n a l y s e s o f o t h e r f a c t o r s i n p r e d i c t i o n s u c h as m o t i v a t i o n , p e r s o n a l i t y t r a i t s and i n t e r e s t p a t t e r n s were a l s o suggested.  W i t h i n the l i m i t a t i o n t h a t the r e s u l t s c o u l d apply o n l y t o freshmen e n t e r i n g u n i v e r s i t y and v o l u n t e e r i n g f o r t e s t i n g and c o u n s e l l i n g , t h e s t u d y i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e t h r e e t e s t s c o u l d be e f f e c t i v e l y u s e d i n p r e d i c t i o n .  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  THE WRITER WISHES TO EXTEND H I S SINCERE THANKS MR.  TO  J . P. McLEAN, DIRECTOR, BUREAU OP PERSONNEL  SERVICES AND MR. H. 0. HAYES, FORMER COUNSELLOR I N THE BUREAU, FOR THEIR ADVICE AND  ENCOURAGE-  MENT DURING THE WRITING OP THIS STUDYj TO  MR.  C. B. WOOD, REGISTRAR, FOR GRANTING PERMISSION TO EXAMINE ACADEMIC RECORDS AND TO PROFESSOR E . S. BELYEA FOR VALUABLE SUGGESTIONS I N TECHNIQUE AND DESIGN.  W.  TABLE OP  CONTENTS  CHAPTER  I  PAGE  INTRODUCTION AND  II  REVIEW OF  THE  BACKGROUND  1  LITERATURE  6  1. G e n e r a l Remarks • 2. F a c t o r s i n P r e d i c t i o n and T h e i r P r e d i c t i v e Values (a) I n t e l l i g e n c e T e s t s (b) A p t i t u d e and Achievements T e s t s (c) High School Record 3. C r i t e r i a a n d T h e i r R e l i a b i l i t y 4. S u g g e s t i o n s R e g a r d i n g Technique, V a l i d i t y and O t h e r S t a t i s t i c a l P r o b l e m s 5. C o n c l u s i o n s and S u g g e s t i o n s f o r F u r t h e r Study  III  DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY  THE  •  6  • .  8 11 15 17 19  .  20  PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS USED IN 26  1.  The Henmon-Nelson T e a t s o f M e n t a l A b i l i t y F o r C o l l e g e Students - Form A 2. The P u r d u e P l a c e m e n t T e s t i n E n g l i s h F o r C o l l e g e s and S e n i o r H i g h S c h o o l s Form A 3. The " J " M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t  IV  STATEMENT OP PROBLEM, LIMITATIONS OF AND TECHNIQUES EMPLOYED 1. 2. 3.  V  1.  THE STUDY . . . . .  Statement o f Problem • • L i m i t a t i o n s o f the Study . • Techniques Employed . . . . . . . . . . . (a) Sample (b) T e s t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d R e c o r d i n g o f Marks ( c ) S t a t i s t i c a l Methods  ANALYSIS OF  22  RESULTS  C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the D i s t r i b u t i o n s o f Scores i n the V a r i o u s P s y c h o l o g i c a l T e s t s and o f Marks i n t h e V a r i o u s A c a d e m i c Criteria  27  28 29  31 31 32 35 33 34 34  37  37  TABLE OP CONTENTS CHAPTER V  (Cont'd.) PAGE  ANALYSIS OF RESULTS  (Cont'd.)  2.  C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n between t h e V a r i a h l e s and t h e - C r i t e r i a 42 3. R e l a t i v e P r e d i c t i v e V a l u e s o f t h e P s y c h o l o g i c a l Tests • . . 45 ( a ) The Henmon-Nalson T e s t o f M e n t a l Ability 45 (b) The P u r d u e P l a c e m e n t T e s t i n E n g l i s h . • 52 ( c ) The J " M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t 53 4. S e l e c t i o n o f t h e " B e s t P r e d i c t o r s " o f t h e V a r i o u s Academic C r i t e r i a . • 54 ( a ) P r e d i c t i o n o f t h e A v e r a g e F i n a l Mark . 54 (b) P r e d i c t i o n o f t h e E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n F i n a l Mark 56 ' ( c ) P r e d i c t i o n o f t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l Mark . . 60 5. Summary a n d C o n c l u s i o n s . . . . . . 64 n  VI  SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER STUDY 67 1.  2. 3.  Summary (a) R e l a t i v e P r e d i c t i v e Values o f the Psyc h o l o g i c a l Tests . • 1. The Henmon-Nelson T e s t s o f M e n t a l Ability I I . The Purdue P l a c e m e n t T e s t i n English i i i . The " J " M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t (b) S e l e c t i o n o f t h e "Best P r e d i c t o r s " o f the V a r i o u s A c a d e m i c C r i t e r i a . . . . • • 1. The A v e r a g e P i n a l Mark I I . The E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n F i n a l Mark i l l . The M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l Mark . . Conclusions Recommendations f o r F u r t h e r S t u d y . . . . . .  BIBLIOGRAPHY  67 67 67 69 69 70 71 71 72 73 75  78  TABLE OF CONTENTS  (Cont'd.) PAGE  FURTHER REFERENCES  85  APPENDIX A  Calculation of a Multiple Coefficient of C o r r e l a t i o n b y t h e D o l i t t l e Method  B  C a l c u l a t i o n o f a Regression  Equation  L I S T OP  TABLES AND  FIGURES  TABLE I  II  III  IV  V  VI  VII  VIII  IX  X  PAGE C o m p a r i s o n o f F i n a l E x a m i n a t i o n Marks (1951) f o r F i r s t Y e a r A r t s , A g r i c u l t u r e , Home E c o n o m i c s and P h y s i c a l E d u c a t i o n S t u d e n t s i n Two Groups  3  C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n Between P a r t and T o t a l S c o r e s o f t h e A.C.E. E x a m i n a t i o n and Marks i n C e r t a i n C o u r s e s o f F r e s h m e n E n t e r i n g t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n i n 1947 . . . . . . .  13  C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n s o f S c o r e s on t h e T h r e e V a r i a b l e s and t h e T h r e e C r i t e r i a . . .  41  P e a r s o n P r o d u c t - Moment C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n and T h e i r S t a n d a r d E r r o r s Between A l l P s y c h o l o g i c a l T e s t s and Academic C r i t e r i a . . . . .  43  M u l t i p l e C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n and T h e i r S t a n d a r d E r r o r s Between E a c h A c a d e m i c C r i t e r i o n and A l l P o s s i b l e P a i r s o f P s y c h o l o g i c a l T e s t s .  44  M u l t i p l e C o e f f i c i e n t s o f C o r r e l a t i o n and T h e i r S t a n d a r d E r r o r s Between E a c h A c a d e m i c C r i t e r i o n and A l l T h r e e P s y c h o l o g i c a l T e s t s T a k e n t o g e t h e r by the D o l i t t l e Method  44  E x p e c t a n c y T a b l e Showing the D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C l a s s S t a n d i n g s o f A v e r a g e F i n a l Marks W i t h i n t h e Q u a r t e r s o f t h e Henmon-Nelson D i s t r i b u t i o n •  48  E x p e c t a n c y T a b l e Showing the D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Class Standings o f E n g l i s h Composition F i n a l Marks W i t h i n t h e Q u a r t e r s o f t h e Henmon-Nelson Distribution  49  E x p e c t a n c y T a b l e Showing the D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C l a s s S t a n d i n g s o f M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l Marks W i t h i n t h e Q u a r t e r s o f t h e Henmon-Nelson Distribution  50  G e n t i l e Norms o f t h e P s y c h o l o g i c a l i n t h e S t u d y ( I n c l u d i n g Q i and Q ) 3  T e s t s Used . . . . . .  .  57  FIGURES  FIGURE  1.  2.  PAGE  Histogram showing the Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S c o r e s on t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t o f M e n t a l Ability . . H i s t o g r a m showing the Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S c o r e s on t h e P u r d u e P l a c e m e n t T e s t i n English  3.  4.  . . . . . . .  H i s t o g r a m showing the Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S c o r e s on t h e " J " M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t H i s t o g r a m showing  the F r e q u e n c y  o f A v e r a g e F i n a l Marks 5.  6. 7.  8.  9.  38  38 39  Distribution  . . . . .  • •  39  H i s t o g r a m showing the Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n o f E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n F i n a l Marks  40  H i s t o g r a m s h o w i n g t h e Frequ'ency D i s t r i b u t i o n o f M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l Marks • • •  40  G r a p h i c a l Representation of the Regression E q u a t i o n f o r the P r e d i c t i o n o f Average F i n a l Marks  58  G r a p h i c a l Representation o f the Regression E q u a t i o n f o r t h e P r e d i c t i o n o f E n g l i s h Comp o s i t i o n F i n a l Marks G r a p h i c a l R e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the R e g r e s s i o n E q u a t i o n f o r the P r e d i c t i o n o f Mathematics 101 F i n a l Marks  ...  • •  61  65  1  A STUDY OF THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE BATTERY OF PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS USED BY THE COUNSELLING OFFICE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF B R I T I S H COLUMBIA  CHAPTER I  INTRODUCTION AND  In was  BACKGROUND  O c t o b e r 1945, t h e V e t e r a n s  1  Counselling  e s t a b l i s h e d a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h  erans were i n t e r v i e w e d n e c e s s a r y , were g i v e n academic a p t i t u d e , tered.  Since  shortly after arrival  Columbia.  Tests  I n t e l l i g e n c e a n d i n t e r e s t were In veteran  eventually  of  adminis-  enrol-  ment, t h e s e r v i c e h a s b e e n e x t e n d e d t o n o n - v e t e r a n and  Vet-  a n d , where  guidance and a s s i s t a n c e .  then, w i t h the d e c l i n e  Bureau  students  may become c o m p u l s o r y f o r a l l i n c o m i n g f r e s h -  men.  Psychological selling  t e s t s were i n c l u d e d  program p r i m a r i l y t o round-out  i n t h e coun-  the counsellors *  a p p r a i s a l of the  student.  With the  c e n t i l e norms were d e v e l o p e d a n d thus compared w i t h the t h i s manner, a l o n g  w i t h the  formance i n f o r m a t i o n , erable help in  others  the  previously  interview  The  for  of the  by  students  Used i n  school  counsellor  per-  consid-  Their  value  l a r g e l y b e e n due  the  importance of the  on  to  the f i g u r e s  counsell-  recently  Bureau, comparing success i n f i r s t  t e s t e d and  (17).  factual information  counselling.  r e a l i z a t i o n of the  s e r v i c e has  counselled  high  was  cannot-be- u n d e r e s t i m a t e d - s i n c e - " t e s l i T - e s u i t s  which the c o u n s e l l o r based h i s  reported,  and  tested.  i n d e t e r m i n i n g academic p r o m i s e .  this respect  cases,  each student t e s t e d  t e s t s gave t h e  were f r e q u e n t l y a l a r g e p a r t  ing  cumulation of  counselled  and  These r e s u l t s a r e  those not  year  tested  or  summarized i n T a b l e  I.  TABLE I  The  differences  shown b e t w e e n t h e  under the h e a d i n g s " F a i l e d Y e a r " and are  statistically An  major c a u s a l 1.  "Passed and  Above"  significant.  a n a l y s i s s u g g e s t e d , among o t h e r  things,  two  factors: T h e r e may  group t e s t e d and may  percentages  h a v e b e e n due  have been g r e a t e r  counselled to the  than In  motivation  the o t h e r  manner i n w h i c h t h e  group.  in  the  This  former group  3  TABLE I  COMPARISON OP PINAL EXAMINATION MARKS  ( 1 9 5 1 ) FOR F I R S T YEAR  ARTS, AGRICULTURE, HOME ECONOMICS AND PHYSICAL EDUCATION STUDENTS I N TWO  GROUPS - THOSE TESTED AND COUNSELLED AND  THOSE NEITHER TESTED NOR COUNSELLED.  Group  Total  F a i l e d Year No. . %  Tested and Counselled 208  27  Not T e s t - ed o r Counselled 836  258  Total  275  1044  13  Supplemental No. %  P a s s e d & Above No. %  69  33.2  112  53.4  30.9  295  35.3  283  33.8  26.3  364  34.9  395  37.8  4  was  selected.  A l l students  d i v i d u a l l y sought  the s e r v i c e , h a v i n g  calendar, having heard words, they sought  of i t ,  c o u n s e l l e d had i n r e a d o f i t i n the  or having  inquired.  c o u n s e l , b e c a u s e t h e y were  about t h e i r f i t n e s s g o a l , and  t e s t e d and  In  concerned  f o r higher education, t h e i r choice  There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e value i n the  testing  and c o u n s e l l i n g s e r v i c e s o f t h e c o u n s e l l i n g o f f i c e , of original  s e l l o r may t h a t he ses in  motivation.  have i n s t i l l e d  may  regard-  I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t the  g r e a t e r m o t i v a t i o n i n the  student,  have g i v e n sound a d v i c e i n the c h o i c e o f  adjustment  cour-  to u n i v e r s i t y l i f e ,  a n a l y s i s of the f i n d i n g s  t h e c o u n s e l l o r s may students be  etc.  The  second  group  help.  The  a l s o mentioned  have encouraged promising but  to attend u n i v e r s i t y ; discouraged  s u c c e s s f u l ; and  those not  i n g i v i n g v o c a t i o n a l guidance  likely support-  theory that students with a d e f i n i t e  goal w i l l  harder  and  students.  t e n d t o do b e t t e r t h a n u n d e c i d e d  A f o l l o w - u p s t u d y was 1951  i n which a group o f incoming  take  vice  conducted  the t e s t s  (17).  a n d be  i n the f a l l  work  of  s t u d e n t s were r e q u i r e d  counselled by  I t i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e r e was  d i f f e r e n c e i n the test  that  undecided  ed t h e  to  coun-  and v o c a t i o n , i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f s t u d y h a b i t s , a n d  lacked this  to  of  t h e i r chances f o r s u c c e s s . 2.  less  other  the u n i v e r s i t y no  r e s u l t s between t h i s  ser-  significant g r o u p and  the  original  " v o l u n t e e r " group.  I m p o r t a n c e o f t h e two  These f i n d i n g s s t r e n g t h e n  major c a u s a l f a c t o r s  A f a c t o r w h i c h c o u l d immeasurably hand  described  dictive  strengthen  the of  of the pre-  v a l u e , i n terms o f a c a d e m i c s u c c e s s , o f t h e p s y -  chological  tests being  used.  C e n t i l e n o r m s , b a s e d on  v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia r e s u l t s , have been their relationship  Uni-  prepared,  t o a c a d e m i c a c h i e v e m e n t i s n o t known.  I t i s the i n t e n t i o n gap.  above.  o f t h e c o u n s e l l o r , and one l a c k i n g i n t h e p r o g r a m  t h e s e r v i c e t o d a t e , h a s b e e n a n y knowledge  but  the  of t h i s  study  to help f i l l  the  6  CHAPTER I I  REVIEW OP THE LITERATURE  1.  G e n e r a l Remarks* Eurich  educational nosis"* likely,  ( 2 7 , p . 8 7 4 ) once s a i d t h a t  literature  "no t o p i c i n  has w i d e r p o p u l a r a p p e a l t h a n p r o g -  The t r u t h i n t h e s t a t e m e n t h a s b e e n , more t h a n b r o u g h t home v i v i d l y  sought r e f e r e n c e  material  t o many a n i n v e s t i g a t o r a s he  f o rh i s studies*  Library  shelves  abound w i t h v o l u m e s o f j o u r n a l a r t i c l e s , b o o k s a n d p a m p h l e t s on  the subject.  No s t o n e h a s b e e n l e f t  new a n d u s e f u l a p p r o a c h e s  unturned t o f i n d  to the problem, or t o r e f i n e and  f o l l o w up o l d ones.  It  i s I n t e n d e d I n t h i s c h a p t e r , t o m e n t i o n some o f  the more s i g n i f i c a n t s t u d i e s bibliography the  conducted i n the f i e l d .  i s I n d i c t i v e o f the l i t e r a t u r e  additional l i s t  of references  contains  The  t o be f o u n d and material  which  was n o t a v a i l a b l e t o t h e w r i t e r , b u t w h i c h s u g g e s t s t h e great  v a r i e t y o f work b e i n g  In a recent prediction during  done.  review o f the l i t e r a t u r e , w r i t t e n  the l a s t  fifty  years,  b a c k t o t h e d a y s when C a t t e l l r e t u r n e d f r o m Wundt's l a b o r a t o r y .  Eysenck  ( 2 8 ) goes  t o the United  C a t t e l l had written  on  that a  States know-  ledge o f i n t e l l i g e n c e i s u s e f u l i n s e l e c t i o n and I n c o u n s e l l -  7  ing.  F o l l o w i n g t h i s up,  tive  tests but  c e s s " was  failed  W i s s l e r , i n 1901  to support  tried  Cattell.  The  s c o r e d b y t h e w e l l - k n o w n Army A l p h a  Since then,  reports of c o r r e l a t i o n  t e l l i g e n c e scores  and  success  some p r i m i first  "suc-  Test i n  1916.  c o e f f i c i e n t s between i n -  h a v e become e x t r e m e l y  plenti-  ful. Segal of c o r r e l a t i o n tests  and  (48) has  prepared  a v e r y comprehensive  c o e f f i c i e n t s b e t w e e n numerous p s y c h o l o g i c a l  success  i n college.  Brlckman  (8) s u p p o r t s  w r i t e r i n h i g h l y recommending t h e E n c y c l o p e d i a al  Research  (14)  ( 4 1 ) and  the  T h i r d Mental  of  the  Education-  Measurements Y e a r  Book  as e x c e l l e n t g e n e r a l r e f e r e n c e s .  As few  list  years  gators  Stroud  ( 5 6 , p. 298)  t h e r e has  achievement  and  during the  been c o n s i d e r a b l e evidence  are broadening  academic s u c c e s s .  suggests,  that  Investi-  t h e i r approaches to p r e d i c t i o n  The  t r e n d i s toward measures of  away f r o m s p e c i f i c  Later sections of this  chapter w i l l  of  previous  subject aptitude be s e e n  past  tests.  to s u p p o r t  his  statement.  A c a u t i o n o f c o n s i d e r a b l e importance Is put by Douglass at  (24), f o l l o w i n g a lengthy study i n  the U n i v e r s i t y o f Minnesota,  t h a t no  schools  stresses  o f e a c h s c h o o l and  Its  own  the Importance coefficients  and  prediction  p r e d i c t o r can  c o n s i d e r e d good f o r ALL  colleges.  forth  Butsch  be (15)  college finding  o f c o r r e l a t i o n between academic  success  and  predictive factors.  ports  B u t s c h and  l o c a l norms.  Berdie  goes on  Phillips  (4), In  another study,  t o emphasize the  (44)  writes  that  importance  there  is  m e a n i n g t o s t a t e m e n t s i n t e s t manuals t h a t t h e c e r n e d were s t a n d a r d i z e d c o l l e g e freshmen *.  its  as  content  2.  the  to  Factors  reader studies  the f i n d i n g s  been w r i t t e n  much has  should  of the  yet  Horst  (34)  s u r e s o f s u c h f a c t o r s as activities,  (42)  adds t o t h i s  lack of  ade-  these f a c t o r s .  a d e q u a t e mea-  p e r s o n a l i t y , h e a l t h , l e i s u r e time  any  and  Interests  significant  a u c h f a c t o r s as imagination,  and  May  of  compares  d r a w b a c k t o more  that, u n t i l  sobriety, i n i t i a t i v e , economic s t a t u s .  The  greatest  academic s u c c e s s w i l l  list  say,  factors affecting  written.  study h a b i t s , motivation  the p r e d i c t i o n o f  con-  k e p t i n mind  c h a p t e r and  about the  written  tests  Their Predictive Values.  t o be  veloped, i t i s u n l i k e l y that in  be  o f a l a r g e number o f  has  little  study.  quate measuring instruments i s the comprehensive s t u d i e s  of  such a group o f ,  this  i n P r e d i c t i o n and  Much has p r e d i c t i o n and  " s u c h and  These c a u t i o n s  1  constantly  on  sup-  (40)  also  are  de-  improvements  occur.  Moore  Industriousness,  persistence, stresses  and  the  social  importance  these f a c t o r s In p r e d i c t i o n .  Scott does n o t  (52)  finds  t h a t b a c k g r o u n d and  h a v e enough b e a r i n g  on c o l l e g e s u c c e s s  personal to  data  justify  9  t h e i r use  in prediction.  H a r r i s - ( 3 2 ) , however,  " c i r c u m s t a n c e s " as  an  he  s o c i a l and  lists  data.  personal,  Two  ability,  more o f  essential factor.  academic  motivation.  or p e r s o n a l i t y  must f i r s t  are  scholastic aptitude,  or degree o f  character  t h a t we  as  t h i s author's e s s e n t i a l f a c t o r s  e f f o r t , meaning d r i v e  suggests  Under t h i s h e a d i n g  economicas well  meaning i n t e l l i g e n c e or  g o i n g t o use  includes  traits,  I f we  b e r e a s o n a b l y sure  of  the  g i v e n more c a r e f u l  i n s e l e c t i o n , can  as  a factor i n prediction  of s p e c i a l concern i n t h i s study. a p p l i c a t i o n of  the  t h e i r own  and  o r were  Travers  (59,  ion plays  an  cess.  the  On  study a t the personality interest  177)  of  the  be  testing  t h a n w e r e t h o s e who  feel  that  Harris  (32),  this factor  o t h e r hand, S c h n e i d l e r University  inventories,  counselling  problem  limitations  of  and  Berdie  Minnesota, using  achievement that  tests  s t u d e n t s who  c a n n o t be  stu-  and  highly ignored  the  Crawford of  suc-  (50),  in  a variety  of  and  the  (18),  motivat-  Important r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g academic  t e s t , conclude  t e s t i n g and  One  s t u d y a l l sought  t o l d t o s e e k it© p.  then  is a  a c c o r d , t h e y were more  motivated i n t h e i r studies service  the  r e s u l t s i s t h a t , because the  dents p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n the of  when  consideration.  Motivation  counselling  (18) stu-  of academic s u c c e s s a r e a v a i l a b l e ,  other f a c t o r s , e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t  to the  are  Crawford  d e n t ' s academic p o t e n t i a l i t i e s . H e c o n t i n u e s t h a t sound p r e d i c t i o n s  and  Strong  volunteer f o r  considered a t y p i c a l .  a  W h i l e most a u t h o r s  appear t o support  m o t i v a t i o n as a  factor  i n p r e d i c t i o n , i t seems t h a t t h i s f a c t o r I s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y a distinguishing  f e a t u r e between s t u d e n t s  s e e k i n g and  those  not seeking c o u n s e l l i n g *  Reid  ( 4 5 ) , i n 1938, s e e k i n g  l a t i o n s h i p between p e r s o n a l i t y t e s t achievement used  the Bernreuter  f i n d s no s i g n i f i c a n t courses  to determine the r e -  s c o r e s and s c h o l a s t i c  P e r s o n a l i t y Inventory and  correlation.  As a g u i d e  o r v o c a t i o n , h o w e v e r , he f e e l s  i n choice of  i t i s o f some u s e .  Smith (54) has d i s c a r d e d t h e B e l l Adjustment I n v e n t o r y , was i n h e r b a t t e r y o f t e s t s tle value.  for prediction,  on o t h e r s u b j e c t s i n p r o g n o s i s ,  tle  on t h e p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e  Reid  Douglass very  ies.  little  a study  faction, agrees terests  lit-  results  on t h e T h u r s t o n e  t o be o f l i t t l e  Vo-  use i n p r e d i c t -  (24) i n h i s comprehensive Minnesota s t u d i e s success  to report using interest  i n which h i s r e u l t s  that i n t e r e s t s w i l l  sures.  t h e r e has b e e n v e r y  A l s o a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Minnesota,  ducted  lit-  of personality tests.  (45) a l s o f i n d s  c a t i o n a l I n t e r e s t Schedule  has  as b e i n g o f  I n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h t h e volume o f m a t e r i a l w r i t -  ten  ion.  which  l e t alone  with these  or w i l l  Berdie  do n o t h i n g  not predict  academic s u c c e s s .  Inventor(5) con-  t o demonstrate  curriculum  Segel  satis-  ( 4 8 , p.18) d i s -  a u t h o r s , w r i t i n g t h a t a measure o f i n -  adds a l o t t o t h e p r e d i c t i v e  value  of other  mea-  11  Most o f the  the  material  t o be  value of i n t e l l i g e n c e , aptitude  in forecasting discussed  separately  Douglass and  and  achievement  performance i n H i g h S c h o o l .  college  (24)  sujnmaries o f  claims  r e s u l t s on  (21)  g r a d e s and  be  Tests. that  Intelligence  tests  l i m i t e d p r e d i c t i v e value alone, but  tests, Derflinger  tests  These w i l l  f u l when i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h some o t h e r m e a s u r e . various  with  below.  (a) I n t e l l i g e n c e  of v a r i e d  found, i s c o n c e r n e d  finds  the  are  use-  Studying  value of  these  a median c o r r e l a t i o n between  i n t e l l i g e n c e of  that i n t e l l i g e n c e tests  prognostic  are  are  .45.  He  u s e d i n one  way  notes,  further,  or another  in  4 almost  every attempt  By i e s has  f a r the  been the  c a l Examination. Wallace t o be in  (62),  academic  most f r e q u e n t l y  American C o u n c i l S t u d i e s by  Brown  (15)  and  on  success.  used t e s t i n such Education  C r a w f o r d and S m i t h (54)  actual  the  Psychologi-  Burnham  (19), test  of l i m i t e d value  prediction.  (48,  p.18)  writes  that  successive  A.C.E. E x a m i n a t i o n h a v e shown p r o g r e s s i v e l y  correlations with college regular  stud-  h a v e shown t h i s  i n d i c a t i v e o f academic promise but  Segel of  to p r e d i c t  and  success.  c a r e f u l r e v i s i o n of  however, f i n d s  that  considerable  f o r p r e d i c t i v e purposes.  In  an  T h i s , he  test items. material intensive  editions higher  s a y s , i s due Brown  could  be  study of  to  (13), dropped the  pre-  12  d i c t i v e value that  the L i n g u i s t i c  tests ing  of the v a r i o u s  t h a n do  parts  the  of the  the Q u a n t i t a t i v e .  Wallace  the  c a u t i o n be  s t a t e m e n t s , he  individual  b a s e s on  the r e s u l t s  i n w h i c h no  parts  are r e v e a l e d In  i n freshmen  this  m a t h e m a t i c s and  coefficients study  institutions used alone,  and  These at  the  marked d i f f e r -  o f the Q u a n t i t a t i v e  their ability  to  and  foretell  courses.  R e l a t i n g A.C.E. s c o r e s E n g l i s h and  other  suggest-  of his studies  ences between t h e p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e s Linguistic  concludes  used i n I t s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n .  U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n i n 1947,  finds  (62), In  t e s t , warns t h a t i t s h o u l d n o t be  that great  success  t e s t , he  compare more f a v o u r a b l y w i t h  i n t e n s i v e e v a l u a t i o n s by  using  parts  to r e s u l t s  to average f i n a l  of c o r r e l a t i o n which are  i n courses  in  marks, W a l l a c e pertinent  to  (Table I I ) .  TABLE I I  Remmers, E l l i o t t v e r s i t y , i n a study that s p e c i f i c Tests  and  Gage ( 4 6 ) , a t P u r d u e  of the b a t t e r y I n use  s u b j e c t t e s t s , s u c h as  In E n g l i s h , P h y s i c a l Science  more u s e f u l I n  the  and  p r e d i c t i o n than i s the  there,  Uni-  conclude  Purdue Placement  Mathematics,  are  A.C.E..Examination.  f  Studies Nelson Tests  of the p r e d i c t i v e value  o f Mental A b i l i t y  are not  of the  n e a r l y as  Henmonplentiful,  •  13  TABLE I I  COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATION BETWEEN PART AND TOTAL SCORES OF THE A.C.E. EXAMINATION AND MARKS IN CERTAIN COURSES OF FRESHMEN ENTERING- THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN I N 1947.  Mark  ENglish Mathematics Average F i n a l  Number  Quantitative Score  Linguistic Score  Total Score  336  .285  .479  .461  72  .207  *159  .224  323  .292  .370  .410  14  but  those  t h a t have been c o n d u c t e d a p p e a r t o  the r e s u l t s  o f the present  cussion of the Wisconsin  one.  corroborate  Brook (12), In a  High School  Cooperative  Testing  P r o g r a m , w h i c h i n c l u d e s t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t , that  the  standing broad  test provides  a rough e v a l u a t i o n o f the  Used a l o n g w i t h High-School  Henmon (25)  find  combination  with High School  i t t o be  Garrett  marks. and  as u s e f u l as  marks) i n p r e d i c t i o n .  Cooperative  o f .608 The  into  t h e A.C.E. ( a l s o In  do  and in their  individ-  E n g l i s h Test*  (30), I n v e s t i g a t i n g the p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e  Ohio S t a t e P s y c h o l o g i c a l Examination,  relation  individual's  marks, Drake  t h e s e c o m b i n a t i o n s p r o v e more u s e f u l t h a n  u a l t e s t s , i n c l u d i n g the  of the  concludes  i n the group, a l l o w i n g a rough c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  groups.  study,  dis-  between s c o r e s  on i t and  c o r r e l a t i o n between h i g h  finds a  cor-  average c o l l e g e  s c h o o l a v e r a g e marks  c o l l e g e a v e r a g e marks i s r = .665.  These r e s u l t s  c o n s i d e r a b l y b e t t e r than  f o r most o t h e r  Garrett  e i t h e r h i g h s c h o o l a v e r a g e marks  to conclude  o r Ohio S t a t e  test  in prediction. the b e s t  that scores  The  be  used s i n g l y  lead  and s u c c e s s f u l l y  h i g h s c h o o l average, however,  provided  single prediction. Shaw ( 5 3 )  mental a b i l i t i e s ment.  can  s t u d i e s , and  are  Using  and  s t u d i e d Thurstone's their  Thurstone's  M e n t a l A b i l i t i e s , he  of  primary  relationship to high school  test,  lists  theory  the Chicago T e s t s  of  the f o l l o w i n g f i n d i n g s :  achiev-  Primary  i.  V e r b a l Meaning A b i l i t y  to every h i g h school il. high, but  iii. to h i g h s c h o o l  a c h i e v e m e n t measure he  Reasoning A b i l i t y  f a r behind  V e r b a l Meaning  Most o t h e r s  Segel  and  and  little  relationship  writes  tests  Tests*  that are  the b e s t those  of s p e c i f i c  aptitudes  or  tests  testing  f o r the p r e d i c t i o n o f s u c c e s s  in  show a h i g h e r  certain  achievements are  telligence  that achievement  correlation with  o f one  of Segel's  telligence  test  •545, w i t h  c o l l e g e marks.  and  correlates r =  accumulative  (21, p.  76)  says  a score  t h a t w o u l d be  the h i g h s c h o o l  The most w i d e l y  Elliott  than  do i n -  These authors  quote  i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , i n w h i c h an i n -  In a comparison o f ment t e s t s  the  tests generally  academic s u c c e s s  t e s t s , as m e n t i o n e d a b o v e .  for  general  s t u d i e s a t P u r d u e U n i v e r s i t y , by Remmers,  Gage ( 4 6 ) , s u g g e s t  results  moderately  Ability.  Achievement  ( 4 8 , p . 71)  a c h i e v e m e n t , and  The  used*  I s t o be  exhibit  the p r e d i c t i o n o f academic s u c c e s s  best.  related  achievement.  (b) A p t i t u d e  courses,  is highly  t h a t a two  .440,  and  achievement  the p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e  tests  of  achiev-  high school record, Derflinger hour achievement t e s t  would  as u s e f u l I n f o r e c a s t i n g s u c c e s s  give as  record.  Scholastic Aptitude  used of i t s k i n d .  T e s t has  Brigham  b e e n one  of  (9) uses i t i n  the one  16  o f h i s p r o b l e m s and relation with  finds i t s verbal score  c o l l e g e E n g l i s h grades*  t o h a v e some c o r -  Bennet, Seashore  Wesman ( 3 ) h a v e done a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f work on D i f f e r e n t i a l Aptitude very  Test and  l a r g e number, o f new  the  have r e c e n t l y - p u b l i s h e d  validity coefficients  on  and  the  a pre-  d i c t i o n o f a c a d e m i c marks* Crawford  (18), studying his three factors i n pre-  d i c t i o n - inherent or potential  ability,  its  of purpose or  d e v e l o p m e n t and  suggests  seriousness  t h a t a p p r o p r i a t e measures o f  order, the S c h o l a s t i c Aptitude B o a r d E x a m i n a t i o n and  o f 1933,  Aptitude  (r =  (r =  Entrance  Relating  the S c h o l a s t i c  .6393), but  En-  the h i g h s c h o o l  .  .6617).  of t e s t , but the o r d i n a r y .  I n v e r y few Reid  Aptitude  b e e n w r i t t e n on  instances  are  Test  of very l i t t l e B r o m l e y and  o f t h e A.C.E. E x a m i n a t i o n a n d  out  type of  Stenquist  use i n t h e p r e d i c t -  C a r t e r (11)  the Mathematics P r o f i c i e n c y E x a m i n a t i o n o f the Achievement T e s t s , along w i t h  this  the r e s u l t s  ( 4 5 ) , f o r example, f i n d s the  i o n of academic s u c c e s s .  General  in  of Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y ' s Freshmen  Much more m a t e r i a l h a s  Mechanical  College  ( r * .4070), o r t h a t o f C o l l e g e  trance Board Examination record  Test, the  his best p r e d i c t o r i s not  Test score  motivation,  each would be,  the h i g h s c h o o l r e c o r d *  these measures t o the grades class  opportunities f o r  studying  Cooperative  the Q u a n t i t a t i v e  score  rank i n h i g h s c h o o l , quote  a  multiple  c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t w i t h c o l l e g e marks  R e v i e w i n g summaries median m u l t i p l e scholarship  of studies, Derflinger  ( 2 1 , p.77) f i n d s  c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n between  and c o m b i n a t i o n s  ment t e s t s a n d h i g h s c h o o l .60  o f .460.  college  of intelligence tests,  grades  t o be w i t h i n  achieve-  t h e range  - .70.  Eurich, that  C a i n and M i c h a e l i s  ( 2 7 , p. 885) c o n c l u d e  g e n e r a l achievement t e s t s r u n a c l o s e  school  r e c o r d s as a s i n g l e b a s i s  scholarship,  second t o h i g h  f o rpredicting  correlations ranging from  college  .39 t o * 6 4 .  T h e r e a p p e a r s t o b e some c o n f u s i o n a s t o t h e d i f f e r e n c e between achievement and a p t i t u d e of r e f e r e n c e s difference quite  used In t h i s s e c t i o n  blurred.  analysis  suggest, b a s i c a l l y , a  Where a n a c h i e v e m e n t  t e s t i s expected t o  I n some s p e c i f i c s u b j e c t ,  I s concerned w i t h the p s y c h o l o g i c a l  an  Aptitude Test,  aptitude  processes  Few t e s t s , o t h e r t h a n t h o s e o f a g e n e r a l n a t u r e Scholastic  An  i n purpose - a d i f f e r e n c e which i s f r e q u e n t l y  measure a t t a i n m e n t test  tests.  involved.  such as t h e  c a n r i g i d l y b e c l a s s i f i e d a s one  or t h e o t h e r .  (e) H i g h S c h o o l  Record.  Some i n d i c a t i o n h a s b e e n g i v e n i n s e c t i o n s that  the high school  record  of a student i s useful  d i c t i n g h i s success i n collegeo erous o t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s ,  This  above  i n pre-  i s b o r n e o u t b y num-  a n d i n f a c t , many a u t h o r s ,  such  18  as C r a w f o r d Berdie  ( 1 8 ) , Bromley and C a r t e r , ( 1 1 ) , S m i t h ( 5 4 ) ,  and S u t t e r ( 6 ) ,  Schmitz  E u r i c h , C a i n and M i c h a e l i s  ( 2 1 ) , G a r r e t t ( 3 0 ) , and  (27), conclude  that the h i g h  r e c o r d i s the b e s t s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r o f academic Douglass  ( 2 4 ) , D r a k e and Henmon  school  success,  ( 2 5 ) , a i d most o f t h e a u t h o r s  <• a l r e a d y m e n t i o n e d , a g r e e t h a t i n m u l t i p l e p r e d i c t i o n t h e b e s t combinations o f t e s t s  always i n c l u d e h i g h s c h o o l  Smith quotes a c o r r e l a t i o n 125  students  i n a California  l e g e and h i g h s c h o o l on  as h i g h a s ,707 u s i n g  Junior College,  "grade-point  averages",  t o t a l hours of l e c t u r e s i n t h e year  Comparing an i n d e x  and course  ceived,. G a r r e t t (30) f i n d s a c o r r e l a t i o n (59)  marks.  of  ,6650  i n h i s s e a r c h i n g , produces such c o e f f i c i e n t s  col-  based  marks r e Travers running  f r o m r = •5 t o r = .7•  Travers  ( 5 9 , p. 154) o f f e r s  the p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e that they factors  of high  are probably  s c h o o l marks l i e s  that  i n the fact  a f f e c t e d b y a b i l i t y and m o t i v a t i o n a l  e t c . , i n v e r y much t h e same way a s t h e s e f a c t o r s a f -  f e c t c o l l e g e performance. weight o t h e r f a c t o r s t e n d i n g school  the explanation  marks  The  T h i s , he s a i d ,  appears t o o u t -  t o reduce the v a l i d i t y  of high  0  results  above c o n c l u s i o n s «  o f o n l y one s t u d y  Bou a n d S t o t a l l  s c h o o l marks were n o t v e r y r e l i a b l e ;  (7) s a i d t h a t that  t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n , but that the standard  i  disagree with the high  there i s a p o s i -  e r r o r of estimate i s  19  high;  that  degree  o f t r a i n i n g and  success high  some marks a r e n o t  i n d i c a t i v e of the  preparation;  i n c o l l e g e are  greater  and  required  t h a t chances  f o r those from the  for  large  school. 3.  Criteria  and  Their  Reliability,  Travers  and  Gronlund  (60)  write  that, unless  the  c r i t e r i o n i n p r e d i c t i o n i s q u i t e f r e e from a r b i t r a r y elements, p r e d i c t i o n s w i l l be stress  the  ments,  criteria.  are  f r e q u e n c y and  C r a w f o r d and  about the  gical  very d i f f i c u l t  low  They go  usual  importance  Bumham (19,  of  p.65)  dependence w h i c h can be  t e s t s are  the  t o make.  on  to c l a i m  Other  these a r b i t r a r y e l e are  quite  placed  on  concerned  marks  that standardized  more c o n s i s t e n t  authors  psycholo-  i n what t h e y measure  s c h o l a s t i c c r i t e r i a which the  as  than  t e s t s are  to  predict.  Brigham (9) f i n d s  that teaching  methods i n c o l l e g e t e n d t o be  and  so f a u l t y t h a t  examination even  perfect  p r e d i c t i v e i n s t r u m e n t s c a n n o t c o r r e l a t e b e t t e r t h a n .40 .50  w i t h c o l l e g e marks.  Gronlund  (60)  say,  Marks a r e  because of  u n r e l i a b l e , Travers  the v a r i e t y of  teachers  i n g , whether p r o g r e s s or achievement i s the b a s i s i n g , and  various  such as,  the  factors influencing teachers'  s t u d e n t ' s work o u t p u t a n d  k n o w l e d g e o f work p r e s e n t e d Williams  (65)  adds t o t h i s  and list  the  and mark-  f o r mark-  decisions  i t s q u a l i t y , and  his s k i l l  In u s i n g  e f f e c t of  to  his  it©-  the t r a n s i t i o n  from high  4.  school lessons  Suggestions Regarding Technique, V a l i d i t y Other S t a t i s t i c a l Problems* A large part  on  to u n i v e r s i t y l e c t u r e s ,  of  the most r e c e n t  t h i s p h a s e o f t h e s u b j e c t has  techniques  devised  to a s s i s t  material  and written  been concerned w i t h  and  new  improve p r e d i c t i o n s *  Marks  ( 3 9 ) , however, e m p h a s i z e s t h e n e e d f o r more d i s c e r n i n g of  the  o l d ones u n l e s s  niques. Butsch lege  new  problems  I t i s well to r e c a l l (15)  who  developing  s t r e s s the i t s own  the  occur  advice  statistical  in  a study  of  information provided  C a r r i l l o and  Reichert  the  with  (16)  of the p r e d i c t i v e value  T h i s f a c t o r i s the r a t i o  of Berdie  correlation  f o r p r e d i c t i v e purposes, regardless the  demanding new  use  tech  (4)  importance of each school  norms a n d  use  and  or  col-  coefficients  t e s t s used  and.  them.  a "caution f a c t o r "  o f t h e A.C.E. E x a m i n a t i o n  o f t h e number o f c o r r e c t r e s p o n s e s  t o t h e number o f r e s p o n s e s a t t e m p t e d .  The  authors  claim  t o have r a i s e d c o r r e l a t i o n s " a p p r e c i a b l y and c o n s i s t e n t l y " using  this  technique*  siderable merit dent's gross  i n that i t gives  some c r e d i t  e f f o r t w i t h i n each t e s t ' s time  Sappenfield fort  T h e i r method does a p p e a r t o h a v e  called  Index" w h i c h i s t h e r a t i o between h i g h  school  concludes  and  that  aptitude  proposes  test  scores*  Using  stu-  limit*  a ratio  ment s c o r e s  (47)  f o r the  con-  this  the more homogeneous a s u b g r o u p was  the  "Ef-  achieveindex,he with  21  respect to i t ,  the h i g h e r would be t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p  a p t i t u d e and c o l l e g e s c h o l a r s h i p . ing  He goes f u r t h e r ,  between suggest-  that out o f a p o p u l a t i o n o f s t u d e n t s , a subgroup c a n be  s e l e c t e d u s i n g a f a i r l y homogeneous r a n g e o f "AQ's" ( a c h i e v e ment age d i v i d e d b y c h r o n o l o g i c a l a g e ) , whose a c a d e m i c i n g w i l l be h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h a p t i t u d e .  stand-  The f a c t o r o f  m o t i v a t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , c a n be h e l d r e a s o n a b l y c o n s t a n t . o t h e r words, t h e author when e f f o r t ,  i s endeavouring  or m o t i v a t i o n , i s kept  to illustrate  constant  In  that  the higher i s  the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a p t i t u d e t e s t s c o r e s and h i g h  school  achievement.  D r a k e a n d Henmon ( 2 5 ) u s e a t e c h n i q u e I n w h i c h standard errors  o f estimate c a l c u l a t e d from  the various  c o r r e l a t i o n s were compared w i t h t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s o f high school averages. sures, having  Any measure, o r c o m b i n a t i o n  a standard e r r o r o f estimate  standard d e v i a t i o n of the c r i t e r i o n  less  o f mea-  than t h e  t o any s i g n i f i c a n t ex-  tent, i s useful f o r prediction.  Horst to p r e d i c t i o n  ( 3 4 , p.117) s u g g e s t s  studies.  He p r o p o s e s  an i n t e r e s t i n g  approach  t h a t cases which have  been i n c o r r e c t l y p r e d i c t e d s h o u l d be i n v e s t i g a t e d by case s t u d y methods i n a n a t t e m p t was  why t h e e q u a t i o n  inadequate.  Regardless son  to determine  of the value  of test results, William-  (66) s t r e s s e s the need f o r c l i n i c a l  data  and I n t e n s i v e  c o u n s e l l i n g f o r e f f e c t i v e p r e d i c t i o n o f academic s u c c e s s * The which  literature  are appropriate  writes  contains  to t h i s  study.  validity  Edgerton (26,  p.52)  that v a l i d i t y i s not determined s o l e l y w i t h i n a t e s t ,  hut i s a l s o  a f u n c t i o n o f the purpose f o r which  and t h e group two k i n d s :  "a p r i o r i "  " e m p i r i c a l " v a l i d i t y b a s e d on t h e e x t e n t t o  Cronbach  shown t o d i s c r i m i n a t e i n p r a c t i c e .  ( 2 0 , p.256) s t a t e s  repeatedly that c o e f f i c i e n t s  that  as low a s  .30  i t has been are of  v a l u e , d e p e n d i n g on v a r i o u s f u n c t i o n s  by E d g e r t o n , above.  Gronbach  when a t e s t i s a p p l i e d  ( 2 0 , p . 260)  s t r i c t e d group they drop.  rise,  found  definite  as  mentioned  continues that  t o a group w i t h a wide range  validity coefficients  as S p r i n g b e t t  There are  v a l i d i t y b a s e d on p r e s u m p t i o n w i t h o u t  w h i c h a t e s t has b e e n  practical  i t i s used  o r i n d i v i d u a l on w h i c h i t i s u s e d .  e x a m i n a t i o n , and  lity,  some comments o n  of  abi-  and when a p p l i e d t o a r e -  I t s h o u l d be remembered h e r e ,  (55) c o n c l u d e s , t h a t I n m u l t i p l e  prediction,  where a s i n g l e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e i s u s e d , t h e a s s u m p t i o n i s t h a t s t r e n g t h i n one another. pend  The s i z e  ability  may  compensate f o r weakness i n  of the c o e f f i c i e n t would,  on t h e r e l a t i v e r a n g e s o f t h e a b i l i t i e s  5.  chapter.  He  finds  Study.  conducted i n the f i e l d  p r e d i c t i o n , Moore ( 4 2 ) n e a t l y summarizes that p r e d i c t i v e  de-  involved.  C o n c l u s i o n s and S u g g e s t i o n s f o r F u r t h e r I n a review of s t u d i e s  this  therefore,  the f i n d i n g s  of  of  instruments remain  23  \  a b o u t as  e f f e c t i v e , o r i n e f f e c t i v e as  1930's when c o r r e l a t i o n s a few  i n the  prediction  w e r e massed i n t h e  " s i x t i e s " and  the  the  odd  erally  t o be  pne  c o e f f i c i e n t s range from  Measures o f p e r s o n a l i t y sidered  t h e y were i n  and  "fifties^,  higher. .70  to  In  Tests of  multiple  i n t e r e s t , while  i n t h e i r present  g e n e r a l i n t e l l i g e n c e are  c o r d as  the  s e n c k (28)  are  second only  best s i n g l e predictor  to  of  found to  academic  where t e s t s w i l l  predict  a c a d e m i c s u c c e s s as w e l l  (67)  t h e i r reactions (24)  finds  writes  support  that  and  at  individuals  great differences the  the as  vary  Ey-  point the  sum  greatly  at d i f f e r e n t : times.  i n m e d i a n s c o r e s made  A.G.E. E x a m i n a t i o n .  These  those of o t h e r authors i n t h i s chapter  e a c h i n s t i t u t i o n must c o n d u c t i t s own use  arrived  to s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n s  a t d i f f e r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n s on findings  re-  work done.  Willett  Douglass  aptitude  success.  have not  in  be.use-  high school  t h a t we  the  gen-  state.'  warns  t o t a l of  yet  the  con-  are  f u l i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h o t h e r measures e s p e c i a l l y tests which i n turn  with  .85.  necessary f o r e f f e c t i v e prediction,  found u n s a t i s f a c t o r y  the  d e v e l o p i t s own  evaluation  norms t o a c h i e v e  of  that  tests  in  the  best  possible  f o u n d t o be  very  unreliable,  prediction.  Academic c r i t e r i a s e r i o u s l y hampering e f f e c t i v e  are  prediction.  The t i o n of  the  group o r  validity  of  a t e s t has  p u r p o s e f o r w h i c h i t i s i n t e n d e d and  i n d i v i d u a l on w h i c h i t i s u s e d and  i n t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of  Phillips  (44)  the  in prediction,  and  s h o u l d be  counsellors  of  the  tests  in  prediction,  study habits  i s not  readers  solely  an  o f a number o f .  These i n c l u d e ,  the  u s e d , s i z e of c o r r e l a t i o n s , frame of  and  the  of which a l l investigators,  aware.  reliability  func-  of marks, e f f e c t o f  o t h e r f a c t o r s , and  the  nature  reference  motivation,  i n d i v i d u a l i t y of  students.  status are  of  a  teste  warns h i s  common p i t f a l l s  the  been seen t o be  of  Williamson  (66),  prediction  at  constructed  the  to p r e d i c t  i n a few present academic  words, d e s c r i b e s time, w r i t i n g  quired  t o use  unreliable ferent  them t o p r e d i c t  criteria  conditions  that  success f o r the  student under g i v e n circumstances, but  the  the  "average"  counsellor  a c h i e v e m e n t t o be  f o r s t u d e n t s who  Is  measured  (examination marks), under g r e a t l y  and  tests  c a n n o t be  reby  dif-  considered  "average"©  It  w o u l d be  C a i n , and  Michaelis  sive  of  list  cludes:  well  (27,  p.  h e r e t o r e f e r a g a i n to 892)  who  prepared a  subjects needing i n v e s t i g a t i o n .  Eurich,  comprehen-  The  list  in-  i. sona! h i s t o r y , ii.  Measures o f f a c t o r s  such  as p e r s o n a l i t y , p e r  etc, Comprehensive f o l l o w - u p s t u d i e s ,  i l l .  Studies of factors  iv. v.  Prognositic value  i n occupational of a b i l i t y  Continuous s t u d i e s o f trends  success,  patterns, and  changing  re  quirements. vi.  Studies of types  their relationships vii. skills  and  to j o b s and  of composite a b i l i t i e s career plans.  A n a l y s i s o f and p r e d i c t i o n b y group  processes.  and  action,  26  CHAPTER I I I  DESCRIPTION OP  THE  USED IN  The •use a t  College  The  and  The  Senior 3.  STUDY  O f f i c e c o n s i s t s of the  Henmon-Nelson T e s t s  Students  2.  THE  battery of psychological tests presently  the C o u n s e l l i n g  1.  PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS  - Form  in  following:  of Mental A b i l i t y  -  For  A,  Purdue Placement Test i n E n g l i s h - F o r  H i g h S c h o o l s - Form  Colleges  A.  The  " J " Mathematics T e s t , U n i v e r s i t y of  British  4.  The  Toronto F a m i l i a l - E x t r a f a m i l i a l S c a l e .  5.  The  Thurstone I n t e r e s t  6.  The  U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia  Columbia.  Preference  Rating The  this  study.  Firstly, fore  the  Occupational  Scale.  first  three  of  the  above t e s t s w i l l  T h e s e were c h o s e n f o r a number o f  t h e y f o r m the b a s i c p a r t  deserve f i r s t  contains  Schedule.  consideration.  l i t t l e material  that  i n v e s t i g a t i o n w o u l d be  study o f the whole q u e s t i o n  used  Secondly, the  there-  literature  encourages i n v e s t i g a t i o n of  most u s e f u l as  in  reasons.  o f t h e b a t t e r y and  Thurstone I n t e r e s t Schedule i n the present  S u c h an  be  setting. part  of  a  o f i n t e r e s t s i n prediction©  T h i r d l y , the Toronto F a m i l i a l  - Extrafamilial Scale i s  still  under  r e v i s i o n b y i t s a u t h o r s and a s t u d y o f i t s p r e d i c t i v e  value  at this  ment l i s t e d  t i m e w o u l d be  of l i t t l e  use.  The  last  i s u s e d o n l y as a r o u g h g u i d e i n i n i t i a l  instrucoun-  selling.  A short d e s c r i p t i o n of each of the tests used i n the s tudy  1.  follows:  The  Henmon-Nelson T e s t s o f M e n t a l A b i l i t y  This  test  i s c o n s t r u c t e d " t o m e a s u r e the  o f c o l l e g e s t u d e n t s f o r academic intelligence.  Two  have been p r e p a r e d ,  of increasing  V a l i d i t y o f t h e t e s t was t h e makeup o f t h e i t e m s .  o r i g i n a l l y determined i n  F u r t h e r s t u d i e s w e r e made b y  c h o l o g i c a l Examination.  £ .02;  Adminlstering  In three studies  - .02.  Another  Tests of Mental A b i l i t y , Higher  reliability  b e t w e e n Forms A and B was  The  involving t  study using the Otis  F o r m A r e v e a l e d a c o r r e l a t i o n o f .79  The  Council  c o r r e l a t i o n s were o b t a i n e d : r = .77  .76  -  -  s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n was  de-  Psyfreshmen .03; Self-  Examination,  .03*  as d e t e r m i n e d b y r = *89  each  difficulty.  t e r m i n i n g i t s c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h the American  .68  aptitude  work" o r , i n o t h e r words,  i d e n t i c a l forms  c o n s i s t i n g of n i n e t y items  the f o l l o w i n g  (33).  .01.  10.2.  the  correlation  Norms f o r t h e t e s t w e r e b a a e d on t h e r e s u l t s o f o v e r 5,000 u n a e l e c t e d s t u d e n t s i n v a r i o u s c o l l e g e s  I n the  United States*  The  authors l i a t  uses  f o r the t e a t , auch aa:  (a) A p a r t i a l basis  f o r the admission  (b) A p a r t i a l b a s i s  f o r d i a g n o a i n g the cauae o f  atudent  of Studenta.  failures©  (c) F o r s e l e c t i n g  those o f e x c e p t i o n a l a b i l i t y .  (d) F o r c l a s s i f y i n g  atudents  for inatructional  purpoaea. ( e ) As a p a r t i a l b a s i a their selection ( f ) Aa a i d s  f o r g u i d i n g students i n  o f coursea  t o appointment  and v o c a t i o n a .  bureaus  a n d employment  agencies.  2.  The P u r d u e P l a c e m e n t This  and  colleges  teat  Teat i n E n g l i a h ( 6 8 ) .  i a i n t e n d e d f o r uae i n b o t h h i g h s c h o o l s  a n d i s d e s i g n e d t o meaaure t h e f o l l o w i n g  (a) P u n c t u a t i o n . (b) Grammatical  Classification.  (c) R e c o g n i t i o n o f Grammatical (d) Sentence (e)  Structure.  Reading.  (f) Vocabulary. (g)  Spelling.  *  Errors.  factora  29  R e l i a b i l i t y c o e f f i c i e n t s were d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e split-half  method f r o m Form A f o r a s a m p l i n g o f 300  e n t e r i n g Purdue U n i v e r s i t y i n t h e f a l l reliability  was  .950.  High r e l i a b i l i t y  a l s o found f o r the i n d i v i d u a l  The c o n t e n t was errors lar  o f 1931.  relating  The  total  coefficients  were  parts.  chosen from f r e q u e n t l y  o f c o l l e g e f r e s h m e n a n d on t h e b a s i s  studies.  freshmen  recurring  of other  simi-  V a l i d i t y c o e f f i c i e n t s were d e t e r m i n e d b y  t o t a l raw  scores against  random s a m p l i n g s o f 100 s t u d e n t s .  s e m e s t e r marks on They w e r e • &&,  cor-  three  .69  and  .72.  3.  The  " J " Mathematics  The initial  Test.  " J " Mathematics  T e s t t a k e s i t s name f r o m t h e  o f one o f i t s a u t h o r s , M i s s E . J e n k i n s o f t h e U n i -  versity of B r i t i s h  Columbia, Department  now  M r s . G. Kennedy.  aid  i n i n d i c a t i n g w h i c h s t u d e n t s needed  intensive  Faced with  instruction  James, h e a d  in first  o f Mathematics,  t h e n e e d f o r some k i n d  e x t r a h e l p o r more  y e a r m a t h e m a t i c s , D r . R.  of the department, a s s i s t e d Miss J e n k i n s  construction of a test  consisting  (a)  Operations with  (b)  Indices.  (c)  Simple equations.  (d)  Verbal  (e)  Logical  of f i v e  parts:  signs.  relations involving  D.  i n the  problems.  and " l e s s t h a n " .  of  "greater than"  30  As  an  a i d t o th©  tremely  Department o f Mathematics, i t p r o v e d  useful. I n t h e f a l l o f 1945  Counselling i n g , but  first  as  t h e r e was  no  attempt  i t i n a predictive  r e v i s i o n was  of the  various  t o use  an  used i n  the u n i v e r s i t y  times  eventually carried  the  aid i n counsell-  out i n w h i c h  s u b - t e s t s w e r e a d j u s t e d and  some  manthe items  added o r d e l e t e d .  T h e r e has the  reliability  its  validity  may  b e e n no w o r k d o n e , as y e t , t o d e t e r m i n e  of the be  test  found  the C o u n s e l l i n g O f f i c e .  on  t e s t was  at  One  was  the  Office  ner.  either  ex-  and  i n an  a mid-term examination  literature.  early  A correlation  f o u n d between markson the  correlation  the o n l y evidence  a b l y more r e s e a r c h w i l l  in first  coefficient  others  done on  .51  and  marks  the  This  reported In too long  test.  by  of  year mathematics.  hoped t h a t b e f o r e be  conducted  " J " Mathematics t e s t  compares v e r y w e l l w i t h I t i s t o be  study  regarding  the  consider-  31  CHAPTER I V  STATEMENT OP PROBLEM, LIMITATIONS OP THE  1.  STUDY AND  TECHNIQUES  EMPLOYED  Statement o f Problem. As  i n d i c a t e d i n Chapter I , the c o u n s e l l o r s  university Counselling  i n the  O f f i c e have been l i m i t e d i n t h e i r  a p p l i c a t i o n of the psychological  test results•  To d a t e t h e  t e s t s have been used t o a s s i s t  I n d e t e r m i n i n g academic  mise i n terms o f t h e s t u d e n t ' s  status with relation  e r s h a v i n g t a k e n them a n d t o a s s i s t gesting value  choice  the counsellor  o f c o u r s e s and v o c a t i o n s .  p r e d i c t i v e value In  (a)  of B r i t i s h  (b)  College  ( c ) The  n  J  n  ability  -  S t u d e n t s - F o r m A*  and S e n i o r Mathematics  Their p r e d i c t i v e values of t h e i r  Office:  o f Mental A b i l i t y  The P u r d u e P l a c e m e n t T e s t Colleges  t e s t s used  Columbia C o u n s e l l i n g  The Henmon-Nelson T e s t s For  confidence.  study to determine the  of the following psychological  the U n i v e r s i t y  i n sug-  possible  t o u s e them t o p r e d i c t s u c c e s s w i t h a n y d e g r e e o f  i s t h e purpose of t h i s  to oth-  Their predictive  h a s n o t b e e n known s o t h a t i t h a s n o t b e e n  It  pro-  to foretell  i n English - For  H i g h S c h o o l s - F o r m A© < Test,  w i l l b e s t u d i e d i n terms  the students'  success i n the  following: (a) Average F i n a l  mark*  ( b ) E n g l i s h 101 ( C o m p o s i t i o n )  F i n a l mark.  d e r t h a t t h e Purdue Placement be  as p o s s i b l e ,  the f i r s t  a'criter-  year E n g l i s h  Lit-  e r a t u r e c o u r s e mark was  kept separate  the E n g l i s h Composition  mark a n d i s n o t u s e d  at  from  all.  M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l  (c)  Test i n E n g l i s h  e v a l u a t e d i n terms o f as s t a b l e  ion  In o r -  mark.  B a s e d on t h e p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e s o b t a i n e d , r e g r e s sion equations w i l l in  turn transposed  b e d e v e l o p e d where a p p l i c a b l e t o graphs  f o r convenience  If necessary, insofar alternatives  2.  There in solving all In  i n use*  as p r e d i c t i o n i s c o n c e r n e d ,  t o t h e above t e s t s w i l l b e  Limitations  suggested*  o f the Study*  a r e important  the problem.  limitations  First,  t o be c o n s i d e r e d  I t must be remembered t h a t  s u b j e c t s i n t h e s t u d y were Incoming freshmen first  year.  and t h e s e  Therefore, the r e s u l t s  cannot  registering  be a p p l i e d t o  s t u d e n t s i n a n y o t h e r y e a r , e v e n t h o u g h t h e y may b e  regist-  e r e d i n one o r b o t h  In the  study.  of the courses used  as c r i t e r i a  33  Secondly, Office  t e s t s , and r e c e i v e d subsequent c o u n s e l l i n g , o f t h e i r  own a c c o r d * for by  a l l subjects s a t f o r the Counselling  I f a n d when, t h e s e  a l l incoming students, this  thesis w i l l  tests  a r e made c o m p u l s o r y  the p r e d i c t i v e values  not apply unless  determined  i t c a n be p r o v e n  there i s no d i f f e r e n c e between the g r o u p s , e s p e c i a l l y regard  with  to motivation.  T h i r d l y , unless  a student  work, i n c l u d i n g t h e e l e c t i v e will  that  not apply  i s taking a f u l l  year's  "Mathematics 101", t h e r e s u l t s  %  F o u r t h l y , i n the matter o f i n d i v i d u a l c o u n s e l l i n g , it  i s not sufficient  s o l e l y on t h e b a s i s s u l t s , as w i l l considered  t o p r e d i c t success  of p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t r e s u l t s .  be d i s c u s s e d I n l a t e r c h a p t e r s ,  courses Such r e -  c a n o n l y be  along with a thorough a p p r a i s a l o f the students  i n t e r e s t s , p e r s o n a l i t y , study and  i n academic  habits, high school  background  so on.  Finally, liability courses 3.  as w i l l  a l s o be d i s c u s s e d l a t e r ,  the r e -  o f p r o f e s s o r s ' a n d l e c t u r e r s ' marks i n t h e v a r i o u s  i s questionable. Techniques  t o be Employed,  ( a ) Sample© The  sample c o n t a i n s  150 f r e s h m e n s t u d e n t s e n -  r o l l e d i n 1950-51 f i r s t  year  a r t s , home e c o n -  34  omics, a g r i c u l t u r e both  s e x e s and  age.  and  p h y s i c a l education,  eighteen  and n i n e t e e n  Most a r e f r o m s c h o o l s i n t h e  l a n d o f B r i t i s h Columbia and tery of tests enrolling. least  15  d u r i n g the  It  and  noted  implications  of t h i s  before  compulsory (elective).  that a l l students  I , which sought  c o u n s e l l i n g o f t h e i r own  bat-  t a k i n g at  s t u d y w e r e among t h e  mentioned i n Chapter  of  main-  the  summer o f 1950,  M a t h e m a t i c s 101  s h o u l d be  included In this  and  a l l took  u n i t s o f work i n c l u d i n g  E n g l i s h courses  years  lower  A l l w e r e r e g i s t e r e d as  of  group testing  accord.  The  selective factor  have  been d i s c u s s e d . ( b ) T e s t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and All  r e c o r d e d as records.  to  taken  necessary  by  and  C o u r s e marks  obtained from o f f i c i a l  are  tabulated  the v a r i a t i o n p o s s i b l e I n  maximum m a r k s , d e p e n d i n g on courses  Marks.  adherence to I n s t r u c t i o n s  t e s t manuals.  Due  of  t e s t s were a d m i n i s t e r e d  scored In s t r i c t g i v e n i n the  Recording  t h e number o f  the s t u d e n t s , i t w i l l  be  t o r e c o r d A v e r a g e P i n a l marks as  a  percentage. (c) S t a t i s t i c a l i.  Methods.  Characteristics tests  and  of D i s t r i b u t i o n s  criteria will  be  of  the  tabulated*  ii.  P e a r s o n product-moment c o e f f i c i e n t s c o r r e l a t i o n w i l l be ter  diagrams  o f a l l t e s t s and  marks u s e d i n t h e  iii.  computed f r o m  combinations,  Multiple  c o e f f i c i e n t s of  will (1)  t h e n be  calculated  scat-  course  study, paired  possible  of  in a l l  correlation between:  E a c h a c a d e m i c mark and  a l l possible  pairs  test  of psychological  re-  sults* (2)  E a c h a c a d e m i c mark and of  the  psychological  taken together by Dollttie i v . Prom the  v.  a l l three  test  means o f  Method ( 3 1 ,  equations w i l l  the  best  be  combinations  logical  tests  diction  of  to  calculated  and  of  the  using  psychobest  pre-  marks,  Where u s e f u l , v a r i o u s reliability  regress-  prepared  a c h i e v e the  academic  the  p.441).  above c a l c u l a t i o n s  ion  results  estimates  of  significance w i l l  to c o r r o b o r a t e the  be  find-  ings • vi.  Centile  norms w i l l  each p s y c h o l o g i c a l  be  calculated  test.  for  vii.  U s i n g c e n t i l e norms a n d raw of  the psychological  regression  to f a c i l i t a t e academic  t e s t s and t h e  e q u a t i o n s as  a b o v e , g r a p h s w i l l be  scores  mentioned  constructed  the p r e d i c t i o n o f  marks.  37  CHAPTER V  ANALYSIS OP  RESULTS  I n accordance w i t h the c h a p t e r the of  the  following sections  statistical  1.  of scores  conform f a i r l y  in detail  the  results  work.  and  1 t o 6 and marks.  distribution  T a b l e I I I show t h e  In general,  c l o s e l y to the  tainly satisfactorily  ception.  discuss  previous  C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the D i s t r i b u t i o n s of Scores t h e V a r i o u s P s y c h o l o g i c a l T e s t s , and o f Marks i n the V a r i o u s Academic C r i t e r i a . Figures  ions  o u t l i n e i n the  The  the d i s t r i b u t i o n s  enough f o r s t u d i e s  standard  distribut-  normal frequency curve,  o f M a t h e m a t i c s 101  of  this  type.  m a r k s , h o w e v e r , i s an  d e v i a t i o n i n d i c a t e s a much  d i s p e r s i o n of scores  than i s u s u a l l y expected of  distribution.  Later  sections w i l l  s i t u a t i o n more  fully.  FIGURES 1 t o  TABLE I I I  6  in  cerThe ex-  greater a normal  deal with this p a r t i c u l a r  W-5>-3l*-3f  y>--V7 y5-yo  39-v/  rfy-trj  r7-yp  4 ° - ^ 63 - » » - » ? - 7 /  7/-7  Step-intervals Figure 1. Histogram Showing the Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n of Scores on the Henmon-Nelsoh Test of Mebtal A b i l i t y 1  So-t<i  /OO-M  lio-iil  /*e-Kf « # - M f /V*>-/ff  /ro-iff l6ow iro-trt  /S»Vff  tp-ltf l<x>-m  Step-intervals Figure 2. Histogram Showing the Frequency Distribution of Soores on the ijurdue Placement Test i n English. 1  so-JH xr-tl Figure  3>-3f  5. H i s t o g r a m  fo^H  i - * - f t rtr-rt  bo-w ,r-{i  Step-inte|rvsls Shoving the Fiequency  Distribution  Composition Filial Marks.  •rtxt  v>-7i  Tf-7<f  f»-i*  of English  TABLE I I I CHARACTERISTICS OP THE DISTRIBUTIONS OP SCORES ON THE THREE VARIABLES AND THE THREE CRITERIA . ... . . . .  Statistic  Variables HenraonNelson  Maximum S c o r e Range  90 35-74 = 40  Mean Standard Error Standard Deviation Standard Error Semi-interquart i l e Range Standard Error  53.9  Criteria  Purdue English  J Mathematics  247  70  tt  n  100  81-207 = 127 16-58 = 43 158.6  Average Final  35.3  English Composition  100  23-89 = 67 61.9  Mathematics 101  150  23-81 = 59 61.0  40-144 = 105 100.2  .66  1.84  .63  1.05  .81  2©22  8.02  22.47  7.68  12.84  9.90  27.09  .44  .74  .57  1.56  .46 6.0 .51  1.3 15.4 1.44  5.2 .41  9.2 .82  6.9 .64  20.6 1.74  42  2.  C o e f f i c i e n t s of C o r r e l a t i o n and t h e C r i t e r i a . Tables IV,  relation  and  found i n the  techniques Table IV,  V  outlined  intercorrelations pertinent  relation  c o e f f i c i e n t s of  the  M a t h e m a t i c s 101  are  spuriously  in  the  of  to the the  the  English  of  the  latter  TABLE  cor-  a c c o r d i n g to  of  the  the  in  v a r i o u s academic  solution  b o t h the  of  Although quoted  crit-  problem.  Composition P i n a l  P i n a l marks w i t h t h e  high, since  calculation  calculated  i n C h a p t e r IV.  not  Variables  VI.show a l l c o e f f i c i e n t s  s t u d y as  e r i a are  Between t h e  Corand  A v e r a g e F i n a l mark  f o r m e r marks were u s e d  one.  (Appendix  A.)  IV  TABLE V  TABLE  s  T a b l e IV  shows a low  Mathematics Test s c o r e however, c o r r e l a t e Since both tests t h i s was  c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e  the  much b e t t e r  are  desirable  and  Purdue T e s t s c o r e . w i t h the  academic  i s considered to  prediction  by  be  11  criteria. things,  a necessary  a battery  of  J"  Each,  e x p e c t e d t o measure d i f f e r e n t  and  quirement f o r u s e f u l  VI  tests.  re-  TABLE I V PEARSON PRODUCT-MOMENT COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATION AND THEIR STANDARD ERRORS A L L PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS AND ACADEMIC  T e s t s and Criteria  HenmonNelson  PurdueEnglish  .49 - .06  Purdue English  iijit  Mathematics  Average Final  BETWEEN  CRITERIA "  English Composition  Mathematics 101  I .08*  .49 - .06  .31 - .07  .34 - .07  .21  .29 - .08  .37 - .07  .70 - .04  .16 -  .41 - .07  .18 - .08  .54 - .06  .55 - .06  .76 - .03  ,08#  tijtt  Mathematics Average Final English Composition Note:  A l l r values exceptions:  .24 - .08  a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .01 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e w i t h * s i g n i f i c a n t a t .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e # n o t s i g n i f i c a n t a t .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e .  the f o l l o w i n g  44  TABLE V MULTIPLE COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATION AND  THEIR STANDARD  ERRORS BETWEEN EACH ACADEMIC CRITERION AND A L L POSSIBLE PAIRS OF PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS  Academic Tests  Average F i n a l  Henmon-Nelson and Purdue English  .48 - .06  Henmon-Nelson and " J " Mathematics  .52 - .07  E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n M a t h e m a t i c s 101  +  +  +  .80 - .03  +  .27 - .08  +  Purdue E n g l i s h and J Mathematics .54 - .06 . H  criteria  +  .39 - .06  .60 - .05  M  +  +  +  .73 - .04  .56 - .06  TABLE V I MULTIPLE COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATION AND THEIR STANDARD ERRORS BETWEEN EACH ACADEMIC  CRITERION AND A L L THREE PSYCHOLOGICAL  TESTS TAKEN TOGETHER BY THE D O L I T T L E METHOD  Academic Tests  Average F i n a l  Henmon-Nelson Purdue Engl l s h and J » Mathematics'' Tests W  . .49 - .06  Criteria  E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n M a t h e m a t i c s 101  +  .70 - .04  +  .54 - .06  The relates  Henmon-Nelson T e s t , on t h e  much b e t t e r w i t h t h e o t h e r two  w i t h t h e academic c r i t e r i a .  other hand, c o r -  tests  i t s very nature  g e n e r a l i n t e l l i g e n c e , i n c l u d e s many i t e m s  Using all  with three exceptions; and  five  percent  level,  Mathematics P i n a l ,  level.  3.  a t t h e one (a) That  M a t h e m a t i c s 101  l i s h Composition  and  percent  i n Chapter  was  of  confidence  significant  at  ( c ) The  11  J  Mathematics  n  Test  significant  and  at  the  and Eng-  either  ;.  of the P s y c h o l o g i c a l  Henmon-Nelson T e s t s p o i n t e d out by  of Mental  The  a number of a u t h o r s  of general I n t e l l i g e n c e  results  Ability.  have  of  this  cited rarely  predicting  s t u d y a r e no  excep-  C o r r e l a t i o n s o f t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t w i t h t h e  demic c r i t e r i a  are not  psychological tests. is  211)  Henmon-Nelson  been s u c c e s s f u l l y used i n r e g r e s s i o n equations  tion.  both  between the Purdue T e s t  P i n a l , which i s not  I I I , tests  academic s u c c e s s .  of  Tests,  level  between the  R e l a t i v e P r e d i c t i v e Values Tests.  As  a test  t a b l e s ( 3 1 , p.  P i n a l , which Is  (b) That  ''. • -  ( a ) The  due  o f c o r r e l a t i o n shown i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c -  are s i g n i f i c a n t  Test  as  t y p i c a l of  " J " Mathematics  the W a l l a c e - S n e d e c o r  coefficients  tions  the  i t does  This s i t u a t i o n Is probably  to i t s c o n s t r u c t i o n , which, by  t h e P u r d u e E n g l i s h and  than  as h i g h as t h e y a r e w i t h In studies of  this  sort  d e s i r a b l e , s i n c e , as m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r ,  the  the  aca-  other  reverse  tests i n a  bat-  46  tery  should I d e a l l y  It Nelson test  measure  different  Is interesting  to note, that  emic m a r k s , t h e m u l t i p l e  are to  are increased  calculated,  osition Pinal  ( T a b l e s V, V I ) .  the i n t e l l i g e n c e t e s t  of c o r r e l a t i o n  adds v i r t u a l l y  with other teats  duce a m u l t i p l e  Comp-  with.308 f o r the P u r -  t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 test  Final  i s about  one-  the slope  t h e A v e r a g e F i n a l mark, i n no does t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t  correlation  coefficient sufficient  to  com-  probetter  o f t h e Purdue and " J " Mathematics T e s t s u s e d t o g e t h e r .  We  may  of c o r r e l a t i o n , applied,  conclude, that insofar  on t h e b a s i s  as t h e r e s u l t s  of  of t h i s  coefficients s t u d y may  be  t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t , i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h t h e  o t h e r t e s t s , h a s some p r e d i c t i v e  ing  nothing  slightly.  bination  Is  equations  the English  o f the Mathematics T e s t , i n f l u e n c i n g  When p r e d i c t i n g  that  ob-  When r e g r e s s i o n  mark, t h e w e i g h t i n g o f t h e i n t e l l i g e n c e  only  acad-  the beta c o e f f i c i e n t f o r  a s compared  Again, In p r e d i c t i n g  e i g h t h that  the various  When p r e d i c t i n g  mark, f o r example,  Henmon-Nelson I s .002  due T e s t .  to predict  coefficients  the slope o f the l i n e .  the  when t h e Henmon-  i s u s e d a l o n g w i t h one o r t h e o t h e r o f t h e r e -  maining p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s ,  tained  things.  v a l u e b u t most  of  that  i n combination w i t h t h e " J " Mathematics Test  in  predict-  t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l mark.  A n o t h e r a p p r o a c h w i l l be now study  of the p r e d i c t i v e value  o f Henmon-Nelson T e s t highest in  quarters.  Tables  This  is a  o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n  s c o r e s , f o r example, t h e lowest  To t h i s  V I I , VTII,  of parts  discussed.  and  e n d , t h e e x p e c t a n c y t a b l e s shown  and IX have been  constructed,  TABLE V I I  TABLE  VIII  TABLE I X  An i m p o r t a n t the r e s u l t s cases  presents  l i m i t a t i o n t o the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f  itself,  i n t o 20 c a t e g o r i e s .  due t o t h e b r e a k d o w n o f t h e 150  The c o n f i d e n c e  t h a n f o r m e a s u r e s b a s e d o n l a r g e r numbers the  expectancy table permits  does t h e c o r r e l a t i o n  o r g a n i z i n g the data.  is  concerned with  of cases,  While  T h i s I s due t o t h e method  the c o r r e l a t i o n  the d i s t r i b u t i o n  the data  i n various  parts  coefficient  as a w h o l e I n one mathe-  m a t i c a l f i g u r e , the expectancy t a b l e allows of  although  o f c l e a r e r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n than  coefficient.  of  enjoyed i s less  consideration  of the d i s t r i b u t i o n .  TABLE V I I EXPECTANCY  TABLE SHOWING THE DISTRIBUTION OP CLASS STANDINGS OP AVERABE P I N A L MARKS WITHIN THE QUARTERS OF THE_HENMONrNELSON DISTRIBUTION. . ... _ ..... . .  Number R e c e i v i n g E a c h S t a n d i n g Quarter Fail o f H-N D i s trlbution  Supp'l.  Pass  Second F i r s t  Percent R e c e i v i n g Each Total Cases  Fail  Supp'l.  Standing  Pass S e c o n d F i r s t  Total Percent  Highest  0  2  10  15  6  33  0  6  31  46  17  100  High Middle  1  5  13  12  7  38  3  13  34  32  18  100  Low Middle  4  3  I  15  1  41  10  7  44  39  2  100  Lowes t  4  2  25  7  0  38  11  5  66  18  0  100  Total  9  12  66  49  14  150  8  CD  TABLE V I I I EXPECTANCY  TABLE SHOWING THE DISTRIBUTION OP CLASS STANDINGS MARKS WITHIN THE QUARTERS  OP THE HENMON-NELSON DISTRIBUTION  Number R e c e i v i n g E a c h S t a n d i n g Quarter Pail o f H-N D i s tributlon Highest  Supp'l.  Pass Second  OP ENGLISH COMPOSITION PINAL.  First  Percent  Receiving Each  Total P a i l Supp'l. Cases  Pass Second  Standing First  Total Percent  0  0  13  17  3  33  0  0  39  52  9  IOO  Middle  0  2  18  16  2  38  0  5  47  43  5  100  Low Middle  1  5  26  9  0  41  2  12  64  22  0  100  Lowest  0  5  25  8  0  38  0  13  66  21  0  100  Total  1  12  82  50  5  150  High  TABLE I X EXPECTANCY TABLE SHOWING THE DISTRIBUTION OP CLASS STANDINGS OP MATHEMATICS  101 FINAL  MARKS WITHIN THE.QUARTERS OF THE HENMON-NELSON DISTRIBUTION"  Number-Receiving Fail Quarter o f H-N D i s tribution  Supp l. !  Each Standing  Pass Second  First  Percent  Total Pall Cases  R e c e i v i n g Each  Standing  Supp'1. Pass Second  First  Total Perce  Highest  1  4  8  8  12  33  3  12  24  24  37  100  High Middle  3  7  6  6  16  38  8  18  16  16  42  100  Low Middle  5  4  9  12  11  41  12  10  22  29  27  100  Lowest  3  7  13  11  4  38  8  18  34  29  11  100  12  22  36  37  43  150  Total  -  51  The ity  of  that of  t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t .  the  the  d i s t r i b u t i o n - the  quarter  i s unlikely of t h e  hundred  least.  Composition ing  i f any,  than  extremes  quarters.  s c o r i n g i n the and  high-  there  scoring i n this  c h a n c e s i n one  are  receive quarter  in English hundred  c l a s s A v e r a g e F i n a l and  marks a r e l i k e l y t o b e  of  lowest  quarter w i l l r e c e i v e a f i r s t  English  obtained by students  t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t .  c h a n c e s i n one  hundred t h a t a student class  scor-  There  are  scoring i n  the  s t a n d i n g i n Mathe-  101.  The  e x p e c t a n c y t a b l e f o r t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101  marks i s i n no  way  other c r i t e r i a , mark i t s e l f .  as d e c i s i v e i n t h e  due  probably,  T h i s w i l l be  F i n a l l y , i t may i n no  highest  a pass s t a n d i n g  eleven  is  o f the  said  101.  first  b e l o w t h e m e d i a n on  matics  out  be  that they would not  have o n l y f i f t e e n  not p a s s i n g i n Mathematics  Few,  and  Students  to r e c e i v e l e s s and  the p r e d i c t i v e a b i l -  test would f a i l t h e i r year  a pass s t a n d i n g a t  Composition  lowest  arises  that students  a b o u t s i x c h a n c e s i n one  are u n l i k e l y  on  I n g e n e r a l , i t may  only u s e f u l Information  It est  t a b l e s throw some l i g h t  way  P l a c e m e n t and  as e f f e c t i v e "J™  to t h e  e x t r e m e s as  Final  are  the  u n r e l i a b i l i t y of  the  discussed i n a l a t e r section.  be  concluded  that the  I n p r e d i c t i o n as  Mathematics T e s t s .  As  are  Henmon-Nelson the  Purdue  a rough guide  in  Isolating  some o f t h e  e x t r e m e s , i t has  some v a l u e  as  v  shown  In the expectancy t a b l e s . ( b ) The  Purdue Placement T e s t  Referring  again  to Table  i n English.  I V , we  find  a  correlat-  4ion coefficient and  the  o f r = .70  -  .04  between the Purdue  E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n F i n a l , b e t t e r than any  i n v o l v i n g the i n d i v i d u a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s . Henmon-Nelson T e s t , a m u l t i p l e c o e f f i c i e n t Is produced. there  As  was  i s a l m o s t no  tions constructed  d i s c u s s e d i n the  two  being  T e s t and  on  -  the  the b a s i s  that these  .04)  being and  combinations  p r e d i c t i v e value  success  correlation  does the  -  "J°  .03  section, equa-  coefficients. .70,  mentioned  above,  (R = .73  the„ J n  t h e E n g l i s h mark. can of  the  mark b e t t e r t h a n t h e  w e l l as  the  t t  and  -  Mathethe  oth-  t h a t between a l l p s y c h o l o g i c a l  add the  very  I t i s apparent  little,  Purdue T e s t  i n the E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n  Taken a l o n e , Final  of these  E n g l i s h Composition F i n a l ,  taken together  to the  o f R = _.80  o t h e r s , b o t h m u l t i p l e c o e f f i c i e n t s , one  e r (R = .70 tests  Adding  previous  t h a t between t h e P u r d u e E n g l i s h w i t h  matics  others  d i f f e r e n c e between t h e r e g r e s s i o n  Very c l o s e to the are  Test  i f  anything,  alone p r e d i c t i n g  course.  Purdue T e s t  p r e d i c t s the  Average  Henmon-Nelson T e s t , b u t n o t  Mathematics Test  (Table I V ) .  multiple  c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t , using both the  T e s t and  the  " J " Mathematics  Test  as  A Purdue  i n p r e d i c t i n g the  Average  .04)  P i n a l mark, o f R = .54 - .06 a p p e a r s t o be t h e most  useful  one.  In the  Purdue  the p r e d i c t i o n  Test  adds  little  o f t h e M a t h e m a t i c s P i n a l mark, t o the t o t a l  picture.  To sum-up, t h e P u r d u e P l a c e m e n t T e s t i s most u s e ful  ( a s m i g h t be e x p e c t e d ) i n t h e p r e d i c t i o n  C o m p o s i t i o n P i n a l mark a n d , w i t h in  the p r e d i c t i o n  (c) The in  The " J " M a t h e m a t i c s !  ,  J Mathematics  J  n  Mathematics  n  Test.  T e s t a l o n e i s most e f f e c t i v e  o f t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 P i n a l , w i t h a I t also  of the E n g l i s h  i s the best  Composition F i n a l .  Taken a l o n g w i t h t h e P u r d u e  Test, i t i s the best  o f t h e A v e r a g e F i n a l mark.  U s i n g t h e Henmon-Nelson  Test with i t reduces i t s p r e d i c t i v e c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h t h e Purdue or o f the E n g l i s h  value considerably.  T e s t , i t i s a very good  Composition P i n a l  (R = .56  +  w i t h t h e Henmon-Nelson i t s v a l u e i n p r e d i c t i n g 101 mark i s i n c r e a s e d  The f u l l not  cor-  o f t h e A v e r a g e P i n a l m a r k , a n d i s o f no  use a t a l l as a p r e d i c t o r  atics  Test,  mark.  c o e f f i c i e n t o f r = .54 - .06.  single predictor  predictor  n  o f the Average P i n a l  the prediction  relation  the  o f the English  be known u n t i l  effectively revised  In  predict-  . 0 6 ) , and t h e Mathem-  t o R = .60 - .05.  v a l u e o f t h e " J " Mathematics  Test  will  t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 c o u r s e h a s b e e n and t h e r e s u l t s become more r e l i a b l e .  54  On  the b a s i s  Mathematics Pinal is  of the f o r e g o i n g Test  evidence,  however, the " J "  i s a good p r e d i c t o r of the Mathematics  101  a n d t h i s p r e d i c t i o n i s i m p r o v e d when t h e Henmon-Nelson  added.  This  E n g l i s h Test  4.  test  Is a l s o u s e f u l along w i t h  the  Purdue  i n the p r e d i c t i o n o f the Average F i n a l  S e l e c t i o n of "Best demic C r i t e r i a .  P r e d i c t o r s " of the Various  (a) P r e d i c t i o n of the Average F i n a l The h i g h e s t  mark.  Aca-  Mark.  c o r r e l a t i o n of a psychological  test  w i t h A v e r a g e F i n a l marks i s t h a t o f t h e " J " M a t h e m a t i c s ( r = .41 - . 0 7 ) , and t h e l o w e s t Test  ( r = .31 - . 0 7 ) .  i s t h a t o f t h e Henmon-Nelson  F u r t h e r m o r e , as t a b u l a t e d i n T a b l e  a c o m b i n a t i o n o f the Purdue Placement Test matics .06.  Test  and  However, a t h r e e way yields  o f R = .54  £  c o m b i n a t i o n a d d i n g t h e Henmon-  a l o w e r one  I t i s concluded,  V,  t h e " J " Mathe-  produces a c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t  N e l s o n Test  Test  (R = .49 - .06)  (Table V I ) •  t h e r e f o r e , that the best p r e d i c t -  i o n o f t h e a v e r a g e F i n a l mark i s b y a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e Purdue P l a c e m e n t •54  - .06).  C a l c u l a t e d on t h i s b a s i s  s i o n equation X where X^  4  Test  (R =  the r e s u l t a n t  regres-  (Appendix  B)  reads: = 17.9  + .154X2 + . 5 5 6 X  3  -  = A v e r a g e P i n a l mark.  X2 = Purdue X  Test and t h e " J " Mathematics  = "j"  Placement Test  Mathematics  Test  i n English score.  score.  The is  10.85, i n d i c a t i n g  should f a l l ed  Standard  E r r o r of Estimate  that two-thirds  w i t h i n approximately  of the c o r r e l a t i o n  of a l l obtained  scores  - 11 p o i n t s o f t h e p r e d i c t -  score.  The  contribution o f knowledgeof-variance  pyschological tests  on t h e  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the v a r i a b i l i t y o f the  A v e r a g e P i n a l mark i s i n d i c a t e d b y t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f multiple determination, which, i n t h i s approximately  29 p e r c e n t .  c a s e , i s .2872 o r  The r e m a i n i n g  71 p e r c e n t  i s as-  s o c i a t e d w i t h o t h e r f a c t o r s which might i n c l u d e m o t i v a t i o n , study h a b i t s , adjustment courses  taken,  is  are encouraging  when one c o n s i d e r s  o f t h e A v e r a g e P i n a l mark more c a r e f u l l y .  composed o f t h e r e s u l t s  on f i f t e e n  course work, o r d i n a r i l y f i v e the sample used i n t h i s common t h r o u g h o u t  Using raw  variety of  etco  These r e s u l t s t h e make-up  to u n i v e r s i t y l i f e ,  o r eighteen units o f  or s i x s u b j e c t s , o f which, i n  study,  o n l y two a r e known  t h e c e n t i l e norms c a l c u l a t e d  c a l l y f o r p r a c t i c a l u s e i n F i g u r e 7»  (Table X) and  i s represented  graphi-  The P u r d u e T e s t  was  t h e o r d i n a t e and t h e " J " M a t h e m a t i c s a l o n g t h e  a b s c i s s a , the p r e d i c t e d score to be read  o f f according to  t h e d i a g o n a l l i n e s w h i c h were c h o s e n t o i n d i c a t e between c l a s s  t o be  - E n g l i s h and M a t h e m a t i c s .  scores, the regression equation  placed along  It  groupings.  On t h i s  basis, using  divisions  either cen-  tiles  o r raw  s c o r e s , an a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f t h e A v e r a g e  Final  mark c a n be r e a d o f f - or i n t e r p o l a t e d o n t h e g r a p h , o r more r e l i a b l e  a  e s t i m a t i o n c a n be h a d i f t h e c l a s s s t a n d i n g ,  o n l y , i s desired©  TABLE X  FIGURE  (b) P r e d i c t i o n Mark.  7.  of the E n g l i s h Composition  The E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n c o u r s e i s a course i n f i r s t Literature. best  y e a r and  compulsory  i s t a u g h t a l o n g w i t h one  R e f e r r i n g t o T a b l e I V , I t may  be  i n English  seen that  the  c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h the E n g l i s h Composition course i s t h a t  o f t h e Purdue E n g l i s h T e s t  ( r = .701  -  .041).  The b e s t p r e d i c t i o n , h o w e v e r , a p p e a r s  t o be  a c h i e v e d b y a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e Henmon-Nelson a n d due  Final  English  (R = .805  The n e x t X where Xg  5  -  the  that Pur-  .029).  step i s to prepare a regression equation:  = 12.05  + .002X  1  + .308X3  = E n g l i s h Composition F i n a l  X^  = Henmon-Nelson s c o r e .  Xg  = Purdue Placement  mark.  Test i n E n g l i s h s c o r e .  57  TABLE X  C E N T I L E NORMS OP TBE PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS USED IN THE STUDY (INCLUDING Q  Cantile Points  (Q3)  (%)  HenmonNelson  x  AND Qg) •  iijtt  Purdue English  Mathematics  Centile Points  99  73.0  204.5  57.3  99  90  64.5  189.5  44.7  90  80  61.6  178.5  41.5  80  60.4  175.6  40.3  75  70  58.9  171.4  39.1  70  60  56.2  163.7  36.3  60  50  54.4  157.4  34.4  50  40  52.2  153.0  32.9  30  49.6  148.2  30.9  30  25  48.4  144.9  29.9  25 ( % )  20  47.2  141.7  28.7  20  10  44.95  131.2  26.0  10  01  34.8  111.2  20.9  01  7  5  40  x = 3  40  Then  X  io  X3 - Scores on " J " MathejiatlcB Te»t Figure 7. Graphical Representation of the Regression Equation f o r the Prediction of Average F i n a l Marks {Zj). X r 17.9 F .154X / .j>56X SE s 11 4  2  3  e s t  4  = 65£11  59  It will coefficient  be  noted,  that i n this  i n f l u e n c e o f the t e s t .  t i o n i s t h e r e f o r e d i s c a r d e d , and  beta  other  The  equa-  combinations of  tests  considered.  Tables coefficients  I V , V and  and  b i n a t i o n s and  Standard  VI  list  the  Pinal  Purdue T e s t w i t h t h e Pinal:  ii  following  E r r o r s between v a r i o u s  the E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n 1  r =  .70  Purdue Test  -  and  ill  Purdue T e s t ,  n  The sufficient  "J  most a d v a n t a g e o u s  t o use  j " Mathematics  -  any  coefficients  particular  first  coefficient  Placement Test  (r =  i n E n g l i s h score  .70  A second r e g r e s s i o n equation = 12  +  0  -  one  Final  -  .04  Hen-  reads:  mark,  - Purdue Placement T e s t i n E n g l i s h .  are i n solely  i t would  listed, the  .04).  .309Xg  where X,. = E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n o X  T e s t and  F o r s i m p l i c i t y i n use the  = .73  .04  F i n a l mark and  g  R  with  the E n g l i s h Composit-  between the E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n  X  Composition  Pinal:  d i f f e r e n c e s between these  the b a s i s o f i t s s i z e .  com-  Mathematics Test  n  R = .70  to warrant s e l e c t i n g  test  .04  mon-Nelson T e s t w i t h ion Pinali  correlation  mark:  English  the E n g l i s h Composition  on  the  o f t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t , f o r a l l p r a c t i c a l  p u r p o s e s , e l i m i n a t e s the  w i l l be  equation  be  that  Purdue  60  The 7.06,  Standard  indicating  E r r o r of Estimate  i n this  oase i s  t h a t w i t h i n p l u s o r minus s e v e n p o i n t s  of  t h e p r e d i c t e d mark t w o - t h i r d s o f a l l o b t a i n e d s c o r e s  should  fall.  ap-  The  coefficient  proximately cent  of determination Is  forty-nine percent.  The  o f the v a r i a n c e i s p r o b a b l y  factors  other than  .4914, o r  remaining  fifty-one  associated with  the v a r i a n c e i n the Purdue  per-  various  Placement  Test*  Using and  raw  limits  the c e n t i l e norms, c a l c u l a t e d i n T a b l e  s c o r e s , F i g u r e -8, shows t h e r e g r e s s i o n l i n e of accuracy  (Figure 4).  A v e r a g e F i n a l mark, c l a s s as  As  groupings  X  and i t s  i n the p r e d i c t i o n o f a r e I n d i c a t e d as  the  well  a c t u a l marks.  FIGURE  8.  ( c ) P r e d i c t i o n o f t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 Because o f the n a t u r e matics less  101  of  Within  a maximum s c o r e o f 150  with a standard  The  "J™  points  significance of-this size  t i o n i n s o f a r as  this  study  difficult  Mathematics  t h e r e Is a range of  d e v i a t i o n o f 27  Mark.  t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f Mathe-  F i n a l m a r k s , p r e d i c t i o n w i l l be  o f the p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e o f the  Final  (Table  regardTest.  105,  III)*  of standard  i s c o n c e r n e d w i l l be  seen  devialater.  R e f e r r i n g t o Table IV, and d i s r e g a r d i n g I t s h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h t h e A v e r a g e P i n a l mark, t h e M a t h e m a t i c s mark c o r r e l a t e s b e s t w i t h t h e " J " M a t h e m a t i c s (r  = .54 - . 0 6 ) .  w i t h the J n  a  101  Test  When t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t I s c o m b i n e d  Mathematics  the m u l t i p l e c o e f f i c i e n t  of c o r -  + r e l a t i o n i s R = ,60 - .05. combination  This i s b e t t e r than a three-way  o f a l l the p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s , which y i e l d s  c o r r e l a t i o n o f R = .54 The most  i  a  .06.  e f f e c t i v e combination  w h i c h . c a n be u s e d ,  t h e r e f o r e , i s t h a t o f t h e Henmon-Nelson a n d t h e " J " Mathematics  Tests,  basis,  reads: Xg  where X  g  The r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , c a l c u l a t e d o n  = 15.2  + .238X-L + 2 . 0 1 2 X  this  3  = M a t h e m a t i c s 101 mark,  X^ = Henmon-Nelson T e s t  score.  Xg = " J " M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t  score.  A g a i n , t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t i s n o t shown t o b e very important u s e d , however.  a i d to p r e d i c t i o n , but this Due  to the large standard  M a t h e m a t i c s 101 d i s t r i b u t i o n , of  the standard  equation w i l l  deviation of the e r r o r of estimate  depends  largely  on t h e f o r m e r .  The s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f e s t i m a t e i s 21,57 t h a t t w o - t h i r d s o f a l l o b t a i n e d f i n a l mathematics will  f a l l between  t 21.57  predictions*  meaning marks  p o i n t s o f t h e p r e d i c t e d mark.  T h i s s i t u a t i o n s e r i o u s l y hampers a l l b u t t h e v e r y of  be  t h e above e q u a t i o n i s a l s o h i g h , s i n c e t h e f o r m u l a f o r  this statistic  a  roughest  Had  t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n b e e n more n o r m a l , t h e s t a n -  d a r d d e v i a t i o n would have been r e d u c e d standard ment.  e r r o r t o 15, which w o u l d have been a s l i g h t  The f a u l t  has been announced year  section  The c o e f f i c i e n t  test in  p e r c e n t , meaning  results  of the problem w i l l  percent  of t h e v a r i a n c e  equation i s transposed to a graph i n F i g u r e The  r e a d e r must  9,  be  o f t h e u n r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h i s p r e d i c t i o n c h a r t , due  the v e r y  tration w i l l  of  future).  mark.  u s i n g c e n t i l e norms a n d raw s c o r e s .  ceives  In the  have t o  that the v a r i a n c e i n p s y c h o l o g i c a l  i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h 36.6  The  to  of  o f m u l t i p l e d e t e r m i n a t i o n i s .3660  t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 P i n a l  warned  course  s t u d i e s i s t o be r e v i s e d f o r t h e s e s s i o n 1952-53,  be r e d o n e i n i t s e n t i r e t y , sometime  36.6  and-examination. ( I t  t h a t t h e whole mathematics  w h i c h means t h a t t h i s  or  improve'  a p p e a r s t o be i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o r t h e  m a r k i n g o f t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 c o u r s e  first  t o about-17 and t h e  large standard e r r o r of estimate. be u s e f u l h e r e .  An  illus-  Assuming t h a t - a student r e -  a s c o r e o f 50 on t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t a n d a s c o r e  30 on t h e " J " M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t , h i s p r e d i c t e d f i n a l  mark i n M a t h e m a t i c s 101 i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y ing.  Due  to the l a r g e standard  t h e r e a r e 66 c h a n c e s i n 100  85, a pass  error of estimate,  that the student's  will  be somewhere w i t h i n t h e l i m i t s  ing,  a n d 107, a s e c o n d c l a s s  stand(21.57)  t r u e mark  63,asupplemental stand-  standing.  FIGURE  5.  9.  Summary a n d C o n c l u s i o n s . ( a ) The Henmon-Nelson T e s t shows h i g h e r  tions with the other psychological tests the academic c r i t e r i a ,  while  the l a t t e r  correla-  than i t does tests  w i t h e a c h o t h e r a n d much b e t t e r w i t h t h e  with  c o r r e l a t e low  criteria.  ( b ) The Henmon-Nelson T e s t , a l t h o u g h - i t t e n d s t o increase correlations Test  when c o m b i n e d w i t h e i t h e r  the Purdue  o r t h e " J " M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t , adds v e r y l i t t l e  r e g r e s s i o n equations  weight to  f o r the p r e d i c t i o n o f academic  On t h i s b a s i s i t i s o f n o u s e i n p r e d i c t i n g F i n a l mark o r t h e E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n l i m i t e d use i n p r e d i c t i n g  marks.  the Average  F i n a l mark, a n d o f  t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l  mark.  On t h e b a s i s o f e x p e c t a n c y t a b l e s , i t i s o f some u s e i n predicting failures  and f i r s t  class  standings i n the c r i t -  eria. (c) effective  alone i n the p r e d i c t i o n  F i n a l mark. it  The P u r d u e P l a c e m e n t T e s t i n E n g l i s h i s v e r y  I n combination  with  of the E n g l i s h the J n  n  Mathematics  e f f e c t i v e l y p r e d i c t s Average F i n a l marks,  reasonable  standard error  Composition Test,  also with  a  of estimate.  ( d ) The " J " M a t h e m a t i c s T e s t i s most u s e f u l i n t h e p r e d i c t i o n o f t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 mark I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t .  As m e n t i o n e d I n ( c ) a b o v e , t h e  66  Purdue and " J " Mathematics T e s t s for  the prediction (e)  in  of t h e Average P i n a l  Coefficients  the  terms o f t h e i r s t a n d a r d e r r o r s .  In limitations tests  mark.  Standard errors  of that  t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l mark. high standard deviation  combination  of c o r r e l a t i o n are very r e l i a b l e  mate a r e l o w , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of  make t h e b e s t  of that  f o r the p r e d i c t i o n  T h i s i s d i r e c t l y due t o distribution.  c o n c l u s i o n , i t may b e s a i d , k e e p i n g i n mind t h e o f the study, that  used b y t h e C o u n s e l l i n g  the battery Office  of  psychological  at the U n i v e r s i t y  B r i t i s h Columbia can b e u s e d e f f e c t i v e l y i n the of  of esti-  success i n f i r s t  mark and c e r t a i n  prediction  y e a r , i n terms o f t h e a v e r a g e  course  marks.  of  final  CHAPTER V I  SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER STUDY  This value  study i s designed to determine-the p r e d i c t i v e  o f three  Office  p s y c h o l o g i c a l t e s t s used by t h e C o u n s e l l i n g  o f the "University o f B r i t i s h  intended  that  Columbia.  t h e r e s u l t s be u s e d t o p r o v i d e  I t i s further a graphic  of p r e d i c t i o n f o r a c t u a l use by t h e c o u n s e l l o r s work. and  i n their  A search f o r relevant I n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n p s y c h o l o g i c a l  educational  sults  means  l i t e r a t u r e has been conducted and the r e -  reported.  A number o f I m p o r t a n t  conclusions  h a v e b e e n drawn,  but  i t w o u l d b e w e l l t o b r i e f l y summarize t h e r e s u l t s o f  the  i n v e s t i g a t i o n and t h e r e v i e w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e  discussing  before  them.  1..Summary. (a) R e l a t i v e P r e d i c t i v e Values c a l Tests. i.  The Henmon-Nelson  Test  of the Psychologi-  o f Mental  Ability-  Form A. In k e e p i n g w i t h vestigators  t h e f i n d i n g s o f most i n -  concerning  of i n t e l l i g e n c e  the p r e d i c t i v e value  t e s t s , t h e Henmon-Nelson  Test  i s of  some use  other t e s t s . it  i s paired  in  the  Pinal  T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y so w i t h the  prediction mark.  The  t i o n between the and  the  of  ference  English  to  an  .80 the  occurs i n the prediction  mark, the On  can  test  of  used to  matics  marking o f  the  of  use  compare  that  the  criteria  any  others.'  indicate  this  extreme but  time i n the a t e s t not  in i t s selection,  Mathe-  The  majority of  in fact  special  important  A.C.E. Examina-  investigators, merit i n  the  i n most i n t e l l i g e n c e  recommend t h a t  any  administra  a good many a u t h -  would suggest u s i n g the  e v e r , f i n d no nor  Pinal  i t cannot of  dif-  101.  and  tion.  no  equation.  t o be  isolate  Were economy o f  ors  Henmon-  Average  again f a i l s  effectiveness  be  when t h e  the  cases i n a l l academic  factors  C o m p o s i t i o n mark  regression  Expectancy tables  tion  101  correla-  l a t t e r , but  individual basis,  w i t h the  test  Test  Mathematics  c o e f f i c i e n t of  N e l s o n i s added to  the  when  " J " Mathematics the  the  Purdue Placement Test s c o r e i s .  b o o s t e d f r o m .70  In  i n combination w i t h  measure o f  how-  test,  tests,  and  intelligence  69  be v e r y c a u t i o u s l y u s e d i n p r e d i c t i o n for,  at best, such tests  rough ii.  serve  as a  guide*  The Purdue P l a c e m e n t T e s t i n E n g l i s h For Schools This  and C o l l e g e s  - Form  having with  A.  t e s t p r o v e s t o be t h e b e s t  g l e p r e d i c t o r o f an a c a d e m i c a coefficient  of c o r r e l a t i o n of  the E n g l i s h Composition F i n a l .  the f i g u r e little  change  t h e Purdue  the " J " Mathematics  marks, Test.  With a c o e f f i c i e n t 11  J " Mathematics  of c o r r e l a t i o n Test  mark a n d a l s o e x c e l s  of  i s the best  s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r o f the Mathematics Final  of  Test i s the best p r e d i c t o r  " J " Mathematics  the  above,  line*  o f Average F i n a l  .54  raises  i s produced i n the slope  Together w i t h Test  .70  The  t o .80 b u t , as m e n t i o n e d  the r e g r e s s i o n  The  sin-  criterion,  a d d i t i o n o f t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t  iii.  very  101  the o t h e r  tests  o in  the p r e d i c t i o n o f the Average  mark.  Final  As m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , i n t h e m u l t i p l e  p r e d i c t i o n o f t h e A v e r a g e F i n a l mark a n d t h e M a t h e m a t i c s 101 F i n a l , t h e " J " Mathematics  T e s t i s p a r t o f b o t h t h e most  use-  70  ful  combinations, i n the  Purdue Placement T e s t , with  the  An  be  possible  i n the  latter  of  this  test  u n t i l a more  c r i t e r i o n i s constructed.  reAs  e a r l i e r , a r e v i s i o n of  m a t i c s 101  course i s expected f o r  prediction  erature, gical  the  the  tests i n prediction  value to  (b) S e l e c t i o n  of  Academic The  scientific  the  the  frame o f  and  lit-  psycholoIn  f o u n d t o be  of  second  record.  "Best P r e d i c t o r s "  of the  Var-  Criteria.  This  the  unreliability  appears  variety of lecturers  reference  to the  t o be  the  main-  marking,  adopted i n marking,  other f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g ions,  the  construction  l i t e r a t u r e stresses  the  for  (p.14).  high school  of academic c r i t e r i a . to  throughout  most u s e f u l  these t e s t s , they are  l y due  ses-  of success in~ i n d i v i d u a l  reported,  t o be  s p i t e of the  ious  Mathe-  1952-53.  courses are  in  was  the  Measures o f s p e c i f i c a p t i t u d e s the  the  Test,  adequate a n a l y s i s  described  sion  and  Henmon-Nelson  w i l l not liable  former'with  markers  1  l a c k of s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n  various decisIn  examinations  used.  Until  such a r b i t r a r y  ments a r e removed p r e d i c t i o n w i l l be  ele-  diffi-  cult  i.  The A v e r a g e  Final  Mark.  The b e s t p r e d i c t i o n  of this  mark i s a c h -  i e v e d b y a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e Purdue Placement  and  (R = . 5 4 ) .  t h e " J " Mathematics  The  mate i s 10.83  standard error of  and  d e t e r m i n a t i o n was  sidering  the p o s s i b l e v a r i e t y  the  o f the Average Mathematics  tion Finals throughout  esti-  the c o e f f i c i e n t  multiple  ents  tests  101  of  .2872.  Con-  i n compon-  F i n a l mark, o f and E n g l i s h  which  Composi-  a r e t h e o n l y common ones the s t u d y , these r e s u l t s  very encouraging.  Used w i t h  are  discretion,  they s h o u l d be v e r y u s e f u l i n p r a c t i c e . Based  on t h e r e g r e s s i o n  equation  p r o d u c e d , as i n a l l c a s e s b e l o w , a facilitates in ii.  The  an  graph  d e t e r m i n i n g p r o b a b l e marks  easy, s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d manner,  E n g l i s h Composition F i n a l While  Placement yields  a combination Test and  Mark.  o f the Purdue  t h e Henmon-Nelson T e s t  a higher c o r r e l a t i o n  (R =  .805)  w i t h the E n g l i s h Composition F i n a l ,  the  72  former used alone almost  Identical  simpler ing,  standard  while  the  e r r o r of estimate  coefficient  of  The  Mark.  M a t h e m a t i c s 101  Final  This p a r t o f the  criterion.  i s very high, ficients of  The  the  sion  o f c o r r e l a t i o n but  best  only  coef-  standard  errors  single predictor of this  i t to R s  equation  o f 27  (r -  intelligence  .60.  The  test i n -  tests.  unusually high  standard d e v i a t i o n  e r r o r of estimate  practical  but  mathematics  p o i n t s i n a r a n g e o f 104  standard  .54)  mark  multiple regres-  i s b a s e d on t h e  intelligence The  of  results  As  a rough  however, a g r a p h s h o w i n g t h e i n c l u d e d to supplement  the  in a  21.57, not a t  for prediction within  scope o f t h i s t h e s i s .  is  seriously  standard d e v i a t i o n  " J " Mathematics Test  creases  all  study,  distribution  i n f l u e n c i n g not  the a d d i t i o n o f the  and  o f the  just  estimate. The  is  s t u d y was  the nature  is  determinat-  i n the  of the  The  one.  i o n i s .4914, t h e h i g h e s t  hampered by  i n an  because o f ease i n h a n d l -  i s t h e most u s e f u l  7.06,  results  regression equation.  equation,  The  ill.  .701)  (r =  the  guide,  regression others.  line  2.  Conclusions. The  light use  foregoing  upon the p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e  at  those  the  old, frequently tried,  and  found h i g h l y  the  part be  played  He by  find  this  test  much i n k e e p i n g  throughout the  literature.  uncovered In the  techniques  were u s e d  carefully  will  be  now  of great be  intelligence the  practical  aware o f t h e  value  rather  cess,  to  t e s t s i n p r e d i c t i o n , but,  e x t r e m e s o f t h e Henmon-Nelson of  expectancy t a b l e s . At  the  doubtful will distri-  b e s t , he  I n d i c a t i v e o f academic promise r a t h e r  specific  may  than  s u b j e c t a p t i t u d e t e s t s were f o u n d  most u s e f u l i n p r e d i c t i n g marks i n t h e a c a d e m i c  record  analysis  achievement.  The  With the  Office.  l i m i t a t i o n s i m p o s e d upon t h e i r a p p l i c a -  through the use  probable  be  the  able to u t i l i z e  bution  psychological tests in  satisfactory.  results will  counsellor.  considerable  Columbia C o u n s e l l i n g  o r u n e x p e c t e d , was  The  Within  thrown  r e s u l t s are very  of studies reported  Nothing unusual,  tion,  o f the  the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h In general,  with  i n v e s t i g a t i o n has  reservation that  some measure o f t h e  i s u s u a l l y the best this  Test  supported  i n E n g l i s h was  the  M a t h e m a t i c s 101  Final  the  " J " Mathematics t e s t  criteria. school  s i n g l e p r e d i c t o r o f academic  f i n d i n g i s amply  Purdue Placement  high  i n the  to  suc-  literature.  especially useful.  mark b e e n a more r e l i a b l e would have been  j u d g e d more  The Had  criterion ade-  quately  t h a n was  p o s s i b l e under the  i n the p r e d i c t i o n extremely  o f the Average F i n a l  t h r e e academic  criteria  reasonable accuracy, with the Final  can be  extent  considered a t y p i c a l  students wanting  t h o s e who  of t h i s  i s the i s s u e  r e s u l t s depends.  Mathematics  the  t e s t i n g and  While  the  some  that  c o u n s e l l i n g a r e more  i n the performance  o f t h e i r a c a d e m i c work  a v o i d or i g n o r e the s e r v i c e ,  serviee  on w h i c h  I f i t can be assumed  study w i l l a p p l y o n l y to the  a s l o n g as  ser-  the view that m o t i v a t i o n i s  factor i n success.  highly motivated than  up  p r e d i c t e d with  students seeking counselling  of a p p l i c a t i o n of the  important  those  can be  e x c e p t i o n o f the  a u t h o r s d i s a g r e e , most s u p p o r t an  mark i t m e a s u r e d  mark. Whether o r n o t  vices  However,  well. All  101  circumstances.  former  then the group.  i s non-compulsory, the  results However,  findings  will  a p p l y to v i r t u a l l y a l l s t u d e n t s r e c e i v i n g i t .  There study,  not  no  evidence,  o r i n the l i t e r a t u r e ,  three tests That  was  any  s h o u l d be  e i t h e r as a r e s u l t  to suggest  t h a t any  r e p l a c e d by more e f f i c i e n t  o f t h e t h r e e c o u l d be  of  of  the  the  measures.  r e p l a c e d by b e t t e r o n e s  can-  be d e c i d e d u n t i l p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e I n v e s t i g a t e d  i n the  same s e t t i n g and u n d e r t h e same c o n d i t i o n s a s  the t e s t s used  i n this  study.  were  75  In will  now  three  conclusion,  have  the  a n c y t a b l e s and  chances  be  be  factual information  t e s t s and  they w i l l  i t may  academic  said that  i n the  By  using  text  y e a r , and  the  the  of the  g r e a t l y a s s i s t e d i n p r e d i c t i n g the  f o r success i n f i r s t  counsellors  at hand c o n c e r n i n g  criteria.  graphs p r o v i d e d  the  expect-  study,  students'  in counselling  them  accordingly. 3.  Recommendations F o r About  literature  to  the  the  formance u s u a l l y  clude  of  s t u d y was bettered  attempt  value of  remaining t e s t s In S c h e d u l e and s h o u l d be  the  to  and  the  per-  predictor that  future  O f f i c e should i n -  sex  as  battery  w o u l d be  more e v i d e n c e on  personality  - the  factors,  Thurstone  The  the the  Interest -  studied.  factors  desirable.  contribute  Toronto F a m i l i a r - E x t r a f a m l l l a l Scale  thoroughly  motivation,  etc.,  the  school  a  therefore,  Counselling  i n t e r e s t and  Investigations  on  a measure o f h i g h  I t i s suggested, the  of  this factor.  predictive  highly  that  most o t h e r m e a s u r e s a s  t h i s p r o b l e m by  I n an  age  Study.  most s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n  o f academic success. studies  Further  i n t o the  importance  of  motivation,  i n academic performance would e f f e c t o f the  study h a b i t s ,  choice  counselling of  be  experience  c o u r s e s and  another problem w e l l worth Intensive  vocations, study.  76  An a n a l y s i s o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n m o t i v a t i o n , ality and  and high  school record  c o u n s e l l e d and those  provide the  not t e s t e d and c o u n s e l l e d ,  very h e l p f u l information  limitations  o f future  Consideration of  e t c . , between s t u d e n t s  should  be g i v e n  i s essential,  other so  and should  desirable.  study  such as t h e "cau-  o f the " J " Mathematics  be c a r r i e d  out p r i o r  t o any  u n d e r t a k e n which would i n c l u d e i t ,  i t may be a d e q u a t e l y A long-term  i n determining  (p. 33).  and Reichert  investigations being  that  would  t o the p o s s i b l e use-  techniques  A complete r e l i a b i l i t y study Test  tested  studies.  some o f t h e new s t a t i s t i c a l  tion, factor" of Carrillo  to a s s i s t  person-  r e v i s e d and o f progress  standardized.  through u n i v e r s i t y i s  I t w o u l d be o f a d d e d b e n e f i t t o t h e c o u n s e l l o r i n  g u i d a n c e p r o b l e m s i f s u c h i n v e s t i g a t i o n s were b r o k e n down into  faculties  dearth  o f such  or vocational f i e l d s .  Moore  (42) r e p o r t s a  studies.  Follow-up i n v e s t i g a t i o n s o f a b i l i t y their  r e l a t i o n s h i p s to vocations  and o c c u p a t i o n a l  suggested by E u r l c h , Cain and M i c h a e l i s t h o r s a l s o recommend requirements.  continuous  p a t t e r n s and  (p. 36).  studies o f trends  success a r e These a u and changing  It of  must be  remembered, however, t h a t  the r e s e a r c h suggested In this, s e c t i o n  dependent this ment •  on t h e r e l i a b i l i t y  d a t e has  of academic  not been e n c o u r a g i n g and  the value  Is almost  wholly  grades which  needs v a s t  to  improve-  B I B  L I  O G R A P H Y  A l l e n , R. M., and B e s s e l l , H., " I n t e r c o r r e l a t l o n s among group v e r b a l and n o n - v e r b a l t e s t s o f i n t e l l i g e n c e , " J o u r n a l o f E d u c a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h , v o l . 4 3 , 1950, pp. 394-395. 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G., " E q u a t i n g h i g h s c h o o l I n t e l l i g e n c e quotients with college aptitude test scores," J o u r n a l o f E d u c a t i o n a l P s y c h o l o g y , v o l . 36, 1945, pp. 4 4 3 - 4 4 6 .  ...  study  Tests,  A P P E N D I X  APPENDIX A  CALCULATION OF THE MULTIPLE C O E F F I C I E N T OF CORRELATION BY THE D O L I T T L E METHOD BETWEEN AVERAGE F I N A L MARKS AND RESULTS ON A L L PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS TAKEN TOGETHER  1.  V a r i a b l e s i_ (a) (b) (c) (d)  2.  X-, XgX, X|  = = = =  A v e r a g e F i n a l Mark Henmon-Nelson T e s t o f M e n t a l A b i l i t y Purdue Placement T e s t i n E n g l i s h " J " Mathematics Test  Work C h a r t :  Column  2  Variable  Xg  Row  3  4  1  X.  X^  Check sum  Instruction  A B  rok  1.0000 -1.0000  C D  r,k AXB  E F  C+D El(-E )  G H I  r k AxB ExF  J K  G+H+I Ji(-J4)  3  3  4  4  4  .4890 -.4890  .4990 -.4990  .3060 2.2940 -.3060 -2.2940  1.0000 -.2391  .2990 -.2440  .3690 2.1570 -.1496 -1.1218  .7609 -1.0000  .0550 -.0723  2194 1.0352 -.2883 -1.3605  i.eooo -.2490 1.0040  .4130 2.2110 -.1527 -1.1447 -.0159 - .0748  .7470 -1.0000  •2444 .9915 -.3272 -1.3273  e  APPENDIX A  Correlations  (Cont'd,)  w i t h Xg a r e e n t e r e d i n row  V a l u e s I n row A a r e summed and t o t a l u n d e r "Check Sum" All  v a l u e s i n row A a r e d i v i d e d b y  Remaining C o r r e l a t i o n s row Co Step b i s repeated  A*  i s entered  -1.0000  w i t h X„ are entered i n  for this  Beginning with A a l l values p l i e d by v a l u e a t B3.  row p l u s v a l u e  a t A3  i n row A3 a r e m u l t i -  A l l v a l u e s i n rows C a n d D a r e a d d e d a n d suras e n t e r e d i n row E . A l l v a l u e s i n row E a r e d i v i d e d b y at E w i t h s i g n changed.  the value  3  Check: F 3 +  + F-^ = sum  i n Cheek Sum  Remaining c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h X row B.  4  column.  are entered i n  Sum o f r e m a i n i n g c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h X t e r e d i n Check Sura c o l u m n .  4  i s en-  A l l v a l u e s i n row A a r e m u l t i p l i e d b y B4 and e n t e r e d i n row H. V a l u e s i n row E a r e m u l t i p l i e d b y P t e r e d i n row I .  and en-  V a l u e s i n rows G, H and I a r e summed and sums e n t e r e d i n row J . V a l u e s i n row Check:  J a r e d i v i d e d by - J ^ .  K. + K,  = sum I n C h e c k Sum  column.  APPENDIX  B  CALCULATION OP REGRESSION EQUATION FOR THE PREDICTION OP AVERAGE PINAL MARKS  Variables: X-^ = A v e r a g e P i n a l Mark. Xg  = Purdue  X„ = 4 General  n  Placement T e s t i n E n g l i s h .  J " Mathematics  Text,  Formula: X  Solution  = a + bX  x  3  + bX  o f Beta C o e f f i c i e n t s i 26949  .33238  Solution  o f R e g r e s s i o n Weights ( b ) ; .1539  .5557 S o l u t i o n o f the constant " a " : a = M , - b, _ . M r - b M 1 13o4^ 14.3 4 = 17.9 Regression  Equation: 17.9 + 15.4X- +  .556X  4  APPENDIX A  3.  Solution  of Beta  Coefficients:  (a)/$14 = <b>/#15 -  =  (d)  4.  = -*!  Solution  (1)  +  ,3272  A  < 4>  -  P  - B i +/^43  Check: ^  (Cont'd.)  ( B  4>  +  *  2  6  4  6  X^2< 3> B  -  =  0  1  3  3  +/^ '23 /^14 34 (.0133 x .499 + .2646 x .299 + .3272 = .413) +  =  r  1 3  of Multiple  Coefficient  (2)  (3)  /j?ik  r  of Correlation.  (4)  /3:l k l k  lk  r  .0133  .306  .004070  Xg  .2646  .369  .097637  X  .3272  .413  .135134  4  Sum = =  R=  .236841 R  2  .487  

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