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The economics of beef production in British Columbia Menzie, Elmer Lyle 1955

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THE ECONOMICS OF BEEF PRODUCTION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA by ELMER LYLE MENZIE A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURE in the Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the standard required from candidates f o r the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURE. Members of th.& Department of Ag r i c u l t u r a l Economics THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1955 ABSTRACT This thesis i s a study of the economics of beef pro-duction i n B r i t i s h Columbia with emphasis on marketing and on the nature and growth of the industry i n the Prov-ince. The objective has been to obtain information which would a s s i s t i n a r r i v i n g at some conclusions with respect to the future of the industry. The study included an analysis of the following fea-tures of the industry: ( l ) i t s size and importance; (2) the expansion, structure and growth of the c a t t l e population including a study of the c a t t l e cycle; (3) trends i n market-ings by grades and classes; (4) consumption of beef and the factors which a f f e c t domestic and foreign demand; (5) the flu c t u a t i o n of prices and a study of market spreads to i n -dicate the extent of price imperfections; (6) trends i n production and marketing costs. The study indicates that beef production i s an import-ant part of the a g r i c u l t u r a l economy of the Province, with about 12 per cent of the income to agriculture being derived from the sale of c a t t l e and calves. About 50 per cent of the beef requirements of the Province are home produced and with a continuation of past growth i n income and population a market for increasing amounts of beef i s i n prospect.. -2-Cattle numbers on farms i n B r i t i s h Columbia have a l -most doubled during the period 1920-1953, although the rate of growth since 1939 has been slower than i n the e a r l i e r years. Cattle numbers per capita have been decreasing since 1920, but due to improved production techniques supplies of beef per capita have increased. The study indicates that the growth i n c a t t l e numbers has not been constant but shows tendencies to follow cycle patterns. The completed cycles noted from 1906 to 1939 were about eight years i n length f o r B r i t i s h Columbia and ten to twelve years for a l l Canada. Since the low point i n c a t t l e numbers i n 1939 the cycle length seems to have increased for B r i t i s h Columbia and i s showing signs of following the pattern of growth of c a t t l e numbers for a l l Canada. The study also indicates that c a t t l e marketings i n B r i t i s h Columbia have been increasing but that considerable f l u c t u a t i o n has existed. Some trends were noted with re-spect to marketings by classes. The patterns of seasonal marketings by classes for B r i t i s h Columbia were d i f f e r e n t i n most cases from those noted for a l l Canada; differences oc-curred also i n the seasonal marketing patterns of d i f f e r e n t classes of animals within each area studied. Slaughterings i n inspected establishments have been, i n -creasing and the percentage, of animals rejected or condemned has been decreasing. About 60 per cent of the beef carcasses graded i n B r i t i s h Columbia are grade "A" or "B". The demand for beef i n Canada has been increasing since 1930. With income and population both increasing at 2 to 3 per cent per year the domestic demand for beef i s continually strengthening. Exports too, ( c h i e f l y to the United States) have been an important factor i n the Canadian beef trade. Prices vary seasonally according to marketings, type of animals and general economic conditions. Highest prices generally appeared i n June, July and August for the best grades, with the lowest prices occurring from January to March and October to November. The study also indicated that prices between markets were not always perfect. Cases have occurred when price differences between markets were greater than the costs of transportation, handling and storage. Con-siderable v a r i a t i o n was shown to exist from year to year i n the farmer's share of the amount received by wholesalers for slaughtered animals. Costs of beef production i n the period 1930-1953 rose considerably as did beef p r i c e s . However, the position of the industry appears to have improved as beef prices have r i s e n r e l a t i v e l y more than most costs. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The writer wishes to thank Dr. V/. J. Anderson, Head of the Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics, for his suggestions and constructive c r i t i c i s m s during the writing of t h i s t h e s i s . The d i r e c t i o n and. c r i t i c i s m s of the other members of the Committee, Dr. B. A. Eagles, Dean of the Faculty of Agriculture, Professor J. Biely, Dr. A. J. Wood, Dr. J. Crumb, and Dr. C. A. Rowles have been deeply appreciated. The writer i s also indebted to the B r i t i s h Columbia E l e c t r i c Railway Co. Ltd., for f i n a n c i a l assistance received i n the form of a fellowship to help carry out t h i s work. i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I- INTRODUCTION .' 1 II THE NATURE AMD SCOPE OF BEEF PRODUCTION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA 4 Importance Relative Value of Products Produced Size of the Producing Area and Possib-i l i t i e s of Expansion Nature of the Growth of Cattle Numbers Marketing Methods and Ins t i t u t i o n s Importance Grading and Pr i c i n g Methods of Sale The Cooperative Other Agencies Transportation Assembly and Storage Financing and Risk Taking III HISTORICAL REVIEW OF THE SUPPLY SITUATION ... 26 Production Cattle Marketing Patterns for B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada Cattle Slaughterings i n B r i t i s h Columbia and .Canada . Total Slaughterings Cattle Slaughterings i n Inspected Establishments Beef Carcass Grades The Average Dressed Weight i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) Chapter Page IV REVIEW OF PRICES AND COSTS AND AN APPRAISAL OF THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE LIVESTOCK Prices General Price Situation Prices at Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Chicago Seasonal Price Variation Price Differences between Markets Comparison of Prices at Vancouver at Various Levels of Trade Live Hog and Cattle Prices Costs Costs Indices Land Costs Feed Supplies and Prices Feeder Costs Transportation and Marketing Costs Method of Transport Railway Freight Rates Marketing Costs Relative Position of the Livestock Industry The Market for Beef i n B r i t i s h Columbia '.The Demand i n B r i t i s h Columbia The Demand i n Canada The Demand i n the United States i V INDUSTRY 61 V ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS 98 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) Chapter Page V ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS (continued) 98 The Beef Supply Situation The Short Run The Long Run Expansion P o s s i b i l i t i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia Expected Prices Seasonal Changes Prices Favourable i n the Long Run APPENDIX 118 BIBLIOGRAPHY 140 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Index Numbers and Per Capita Ratios of Cattle and Calves i n Canada, 1920-1953 11 2 Index Numbers and Per Capita Ratios of Cattle and Calves i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1920-1953 12 3 Cattle Marketings, Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia, 1940-1953 27 4 Index of Cattle and Calf Slaughterings i n In-spected Establishments i n Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia and Per Cent of Animals Rejected or Condemned of Total for Canada, 1940-1953 42 5 Inspected Slaughter of Cattle As Per Cent of Total Slaughter i n Canada 43 6 Exports of Cattle From Canada, i n Per Cent, By-Type, 1948-1953 55 7 Net Exports of Beef and Cattle From Canada, 1930-1953 57 8 Estimates of Relationship of Beef Production to Consumption i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1946-1953 59 9 Livestock Price Differences per Cwt., 1951-1953 (Vancouver minus Calgary) 67-68 10 Differences i n Price Per Cwt. for Good Steers Up to 1,000 Lbs., Between Vancouver and Calgary, Vancouver and Toronto, Toronto and Chicago, 1953 71 11 Index of Live Cattle Prices With Corresponding Index for Deflated Prices, 1930-1953 78 12 Index of Prices of Beef Carcasses and Rib Roasts at Vancouver, 1930-1952 With Corresponding In-dices for Deflated Prices (1935-1939 = 100) .... 79 13 Ratio of Price of Beef to Price of Barley and Mixed Hay 86 14 Margins Between Prices at Calgary of Stockers and Feeders i n October and Good Steers (Up to 1,000 Lbs.) at Various Lengths of Time After October, 1930-1954 88 v i LIST OF TABLES (CONTINUED) Table Page 15 Farm Cash Income From Cattle and Calves, B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada, 1930-1953 -2.P 16 Cash Income From the Sale of Farm Products and the Index of Physical Volume of A g r i c u l t u r a l Production for B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada, 1930-1953 121 17 Numbers of Livestock on Farms i n Canada, June 1, 1932-1954 122 18 Numbers of Livestock on Farms i n B r i t i s h Colum-bia, June 1, 1932-1954 • 123 19 Deliveries of Livestock to Stockyards and Pack-ing Plants by R a i l and Truck, B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada, 1940-1953 12'4 20 Average Monthly Cattle Marketings by Classes, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1951-1953 12$ 21 Average Monthly Cattle Marketings by Classes, Canada, 1951-1953 126 22 Slaughter and Consumption of Cattle and Calves in Canada, 1930-1953 15-7 23 Cattle and Calf Slaughterings i n Inspected Establishments, 1920-1953 1.2.8 24 Beef Carcasses Graded—In Percentage, Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia, 1947-1953 1&9 25 Consumption of Beef and Pork i n Canada, 193 0-1953 130 26 Exports and Imports of Cattle, Calves, and Beef, Canada, 1930-1953 ' 131 27 Movements of Cattle To and From B r i t i s h Columbia 1949-1953 13:2 28 Average Wholesale Prices of Hides and Skins, Canada, 1932-1952 130 29 Average Price of Good Steers to the Farmer and the Wholesale Price of Beef Carcass Good Steers, Vancouver, 1951-1953 134 v i i LIST OF TABLES (CONTINUED) Table Page 30 Live Hog and Cattle Prices, 1933-1952 135 31 R e t a i l Feed Prices i n the Fraser Valley, 1930-1953 • 136' 32 Western Canada, Price Index Numbers of Com-modities and Services Used by Farmers, 1930-1952 137 33 Supplies and Consumption of Feed Grains Per Grain-Consuming Animal Unit, Canada, 1941-1954 • 138 34 Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices of Canadian Farm Products, 1930-1953 13-9 v i i i LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Value of B r i t i s h Columbia Farm Products, 1953 (Preliminary Estimates) 5 2 Index of Growth of Human Population and Numbers of Cattle and Calves' (1935-1939 - 100) 14 3 Index of Total Numbers of Cattle and Calves i n B r i t i s h Columbia, Canada, and U.S.A., 1906-1954 16 4 Percentage of Livestock'by Classes on Farms, June 1, 1932-1954 18 5 Cattle Marketings i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1940-1953 (To Plants and Yards) 30 6 Cattle Marketings i n Canada, 1940-1953 (To Plants and Yards) 32 > 7-13 Prices at Calgary and Per Cent of Marketings i n B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada by Months, 1951-1953 34-40 14 Index of Average Monthly Marketings and Price Per Cwt. of Total Cattle Sales i n Public Stock-yards, 1951-1953 41 15 Ratios of Consumption and Prices of Beef to Pork 47 16 Consumption of Meat Per Capita 47 17 Average Monthly Prices--Calgary--Good, Medium and Common Steers 63 18 Average Monthly Prices--Calgary--Good Heifers, Common Heifers and Good Cows 64 •19 Prices of Good Steers (Up to 1,050 Lbs.) and Good Stockers and Feeder Steers, Calgary, 1930-1954 90-91 20 Price Margin on Good Slaughter Steers If Sold 8 Months After Purchase as Feeders, 1930-1954 ... 90-91 21 Freight Rates on Livestock Between Calgary and Vancouver ( i n Cents Per 100 Pounds, Rates i n Effect March 9, 1953) 94 i x LIST OF FIGURES (CONTINUED) Figure Page 22 Beef Cattle Prices; Farm Value Per Head, Number of Cattle Other Than Milk Cows, Slaughtered and Sold A l i v e , Average Price of Cattle Sold on Yards, 1920-1953 97 x THE ECONOMICS OF BEEF PRODUCTION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Meat has been an e s s e n t i a l part of the human d i e t a l l through h i s t o r y . I t i s known to con t a i n v a r y i n g p r o p o r t i o n s of p r o t e i n s , f a t s , minerals^ nitrogenous and non-nitrogenous ex-t r a c t i v e s , pigments, enzymes, vitamins and water. "One f o u r -ounce serving of meat s u p p l i e s approximately 24 per cent of the p r o t e i n , 14 per cent of the c a l o r i e s , 1 per cent of the calcium, 14 per cent of the phosphorus, 25 per cent of the i r o n , 6 per cent of the Vitamin A, 36 per cent of the Vitamin B l ( t h i a m i n e ) , 16 per cent of the Vitamin B2 ( r i b o f l a v i n ) , 38 per cent of the n i a c i n , and 1 per cent of the Vitamin C r e q u i r e d by a p h y s i c a l l y ; a c t i v e adult.""'" The above values vary w i t h the type of meat, the i n d i v i d u a l cuts of meat and w i t h the q u a l i t y , which depends on the production and processing techniques employed. The per c a p i t a consumption of meats v a r i e s a great deal between c o u n t r i e s of the world; the people of Ar g e n t i n a , 1 The United States N a t i o n a l L i v e s t o c k and Meat Board, Ten  Lessons on Meat, c i t e d i n The I n d u s t r i a l and Development C o u n c i l of Meat Packers, A l e t t e r on Canadian L i v e s t o c k Products. Toronto, October, 1952. -1--2-Uruguay, A u s t r a l i a , and New Zealand use over. 200 pounds of meat per capita; i n the United States they use about 150 pounds per capita and Canada about 140. Most Europeans consume less than 100 pounds per capita and i n densely populated areas such as India, Japan, and China the consumption of meat per capita i s very small. In Canada and the United States beef and pork are constantly vying with each other for f i r s t place i n the meat diet and the two meats together form 70 to 80 per cent of the t o t a l meat consumed. Americans consumed 76 pounds of beef per capita i n 1953 which was about 50 per cent of t h e i r t o t a l meat consumption; Canadians consumed 59 pounds of beef per capita which was about 40 per cent of t h e i r t o t a l meat consumption i n the same year. In the United States from 5 to 6 per cent of personal income i s spent on meat, i n Canada i t i s estimated to be about 7 or 8 per cent. Thus the production of beef i s a major industry on t h i s continent. In B r i t i s h Columbia i t accounts for a major part of the gross income of a g r i c u l t u r e ; yet l e s s than one-half of the beef consumed i n the Province i s produced here. Since B r i t i s h Columbia's population i s growing there appears to be considerable opportunity for expansion of production. The prob-lems of achieving t h i s expansion of output centre., around the fact that the land suitable for the production of hay or grain, or for x Food and A g r i c u l t u r a l Organization of the United Nations, Commodity Reports. Washington, D. C , 29, December 1950, p. 28, -3-grazing c a t t l e i s li m i t e d and that feed l o t operations tend to be costly as much of the feed used must be shipped into the Province. The question then i s whether or not i t i s good econ-omy to t r y to supply the growing demand for beef from home pro-duction or whether i t would be better to accept ever increasing quantities of imports. This thesis attempts to deal with the above question and to make some recommendations for the future by studying, (1) the size and importance of the beef industry i n the economy of B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada, (2) the expansion, structure and growth of the c a t t l e population, (3) the supply s i t u a t i o n includ-ing trends i n marketings by classes and grades of c a t t l e , (4) the demand si t u a t i o n including consumption patterns and the factors which influence demand, both domestic and foreign, and (5) prices, including imperfections between markets. CHAPTER II THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF BEEF PRODUCTION IN B. C. Importance Agriculture i n B r i t i s h Columbia contributes about two-thirds of the Province's food requirements and employs about 7 per cent of the labour f o r c e . In 1951 i t was the major source of income for about 10 per cent of the 1,165,210 people 1 i n the Province. Relative Value of Products Produced Total cash income from farming i n B r i t i s h Columbia has ranged from the low yearly average of $27,462,000 for 1935-1939, to a high of $109,618,000 i n 1951. The sales value of c a t t l e and calves averaged 12.5 per cent of the cash farm income for the years 1930-1953 in c l u s i v e with a low of 8 per cent i n 1930 and a high of 21.3 per cent i n 1951. A decline i n li v e s t o c k prices began i n 1952, and by 1953 the sales value of c a t t l e and calves was only 10.7 per cent of the t o t a l farm cash income (Appendix Table 15)• The 1953 sales of c a t t l e and calves made up over 77 per cent of the income from li v e s t o c k excluding poultry. These sales ranked t h i r d with respect to major items contributing to farm cash income (Figure 1). 1 Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Ninth Census of Canada  1951. VI, Part I Table I (Canada), Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1953. 4-Sales of c a t t l e and calves i n Canada have an even greater r e l a t i v e value. On the average they made up 13.3 per cent of farm cash income from 1930 to 1953, ranging from 9.'2 to 21,8 per cent. In 1953 c a t t l e and c a l f sales constituted 12.1 per cent of eash farm income. This i s a substantial amount considering that farm cash income i n Canada i n 1953 was reported at 12,742,824,000 (Appendix Table 16). Size of Producing Area and P o s s i b i l i t i e s of Expansion Expansion of the beef industry i n B r i t i s h Columbia has been l i m i t e d by a shortage of feed producing land. This l i m i t a -t i o n applies p a r t i c u l a r l y to the area for growing hay and grain and for l a t e f a l l and winter grazing. The Forest Service which administers Crown range lands i n B r i t i s h Columbia estimates that as of 1951 "... there are approximately three m i l l i o n acres of open grassland i n the province and approximately f i f t e e n and one-half m i l l i o n acres of forest land suitable f o r the grazing of domestic livestock."-*- "At the present time (May 2 5 , 1954) i t i s estimated that approximately two and one-half m i l l i o n acres of open grassland are i n use for grazing i n B r i t i s h Columbia." The remainder of the open grassland i s used for more intensive farming. Between ten and twelve m i l l i o n acres of forest land i s now i n grazing use. 1 Pendray, W. C , (Forest Service, Grazing D i v i s i o n , Vic-t o r i a , B. C.) - l e t t e r to the author, June 11, 1954. Pendray, W. C., (Forest Service, Grazing D i v i s i o n , Vic-t o r i a , B. C.) - l e t t e r to the author, May 25,, 1954. -7-The remainder of the forest range i s i n short season areas where lack of winter grazing f a c i l i t i e s and of spring and f a l l range make i t s use imp r a c t i c a l . "In b r i e f , the small acre-age of open grassland ava i l a b l e , which had been f u l l y used for many years and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of winter feed, are the l i m i t i n g factors i n range l i v e s t o c k production. 1 , 1 The major grasslands are i n the C h i l c o t i n , Thompson, Nicola and Okanagan Valleys. Timber ranges are at higher eleva-tions and the general plateau l e v e l varies from about 5000 feet i n the southern part to about 3000 feet i n the north. Valley f l o o r s range from 600 to 2000 f e e t . The area i s r e l a t i v e l y dry and warm i n the summer. The f r o s t free season i s r e l a t i v e l y long i n the south but i s a l i m i t i n g factor i n the north and at higher a l t i t u d e s . The grassland ranges produce a high quality forage with 2 • a y i e l d of 400 to 1200 pounds per acre. The estimated grazing capacity i s from 1.1 to 3.0 acres per animal unit month. "Stud-ies made at the Kamloops Station from 1938 to 1940 show that two-year-old steers and heifers made gains averaging two pounds per head per day during l a t e June, July and August."^ Forest ranges vary i n value depending on the a l t i t u d e and the type of growth. The ponderosa pine zones on the fringe 1 Loc. c i t . ^ Information from the o f f i c e of the Surveyor of Taxes, V i c t o r i a , B. C. 3 Tisdale, E. W., "Grazing of Forest Lands i n Interi o r B r i t -i s h Columbia," Journal of Forestry, Vol. 48, No. 12, December, 1950, p. 858. areas have a capacity of 2.5 acres per animal unit month; the douglas f i r zones have a capacity of approximately 4 acres per animal unit month; the spruce-fir area above t h i s l e v e l i s cool and moist, having a limited season and rather poor grazing area except i n the meadows and openings. 1 Although many acres of forest range land are s t i l l unused or sparsely grazed much of i t i s inaccessible due to deadfall trees and shrub cover. Some areas are infested with poisonous plants. The handling and control of animals becomes a major problem i n rugged t e r r a i n , and calf-crop i s low. Graz-ing i n other areas must meet the requirements of watershed maintenance, timber production, w i l d l i f e preservation and of recreation. Watershed maintenance i s important to i r r i g a t i o n , e s pecially i n the south and central areas. In spite of the fact that livestock production i s presently l i m i t e d by winter feeding and grazing areas, there i s considerable p o s s i b i l i t y of expansion. For example, "Some 70,000 acres are now i r r i g a t e d , c h i e f l y i n the main v a l l e y s . " and It has been estimated that the p o t e n t i a l i s at lea s t double t h i s amount. With increased i r r i g a t i o n , hay production could be greatly increased, either giving more hay for winter feed or releasing more land for grazing. S i m i l a r l y increased use of 1 Tisdale, E. W., McLean, A. and Clarke, S. E., "Range Re-sources and t h e i r Management i n B r i t i s h Columbia," Journal of  Range Management, Vol. 7, No. 1, January, 1954. * Tisdale, E. W«, "Grazing of Forest Lands i n In t e r i o r B r i t i s h Columbia," Journal of Forestry. Vol. 48, No. 12, Dec-ember, 1950, p. 859. -9-f e r t i l i z e r can greatly increase the forage production of grazing land. Lands now producing one-half to three-quarters of a ton of forage per acre may be made to produce several times t h i s amount by the app l i c a t i o n of water and f e r t i l i z e r . Production may be increased also by improved man* agement methods r e s u l t i n g from technological research. Graz-ing lands could be improved by reseeding poor areas, k i l l i n g o f f weeds, and by avoiding overgrazing. Better grades of livestock and more care i n handling could help to increase the calf-crop, cut down on death losses and obtain f a s t e r gains with a higher quality product. Streamlined methods of operation would help to i n -crease productivity. Some ranches operating on a calf-crop basis might carry larger breeding herds, thus giving a greater output of animals per ranch. This would require the estab-lishment of more feedlot operations i n other areas. Such a system i s used i n the United States where feeders are reared in the range country and fattened i n the corn belt areas. Nature of the Growth of Cattle Numbers The rate of growth of human population r e l a t i v e to animal numbers i s as follows: Canada's human population ex-panded from 8,556,000 i n 1920 to 14,781,000 i n 1953 - an average yearly increase of 1.7 per cent. The rates of i n -crease for 1952 and 1953 were 3.0 and 2.4 per cent respectively. -10-The population for 1953 was 33»7 per cent above the 1935-1939 l e v e l . From 1920-1953 numbers of c a t t l e and calves i n Can-ada increased from 8,154,000 to 9,762,000. There were about 12 per cent more c a t t l e and calves i n Canada i n 1953 than i n the period 1935-1939* Cattle other than milk cows increased from 5,167,000 to 6,616,000 and i n 1953 they were 34 per cent above the annual average for 1935-1939. There was .60 c a t t l e other than milk cows per capita i n 1920; .39 i n 1951; and .45 i n 1953 (Table l ) . There was .66 c a t t l e and calves per capita i n Canada in 1953. For the period 1920-1953 the per capita number ranged from a high of .95 i n 1920 to a low of .60 i n 1951. A similar comparison shows that human population i n B r i t i s h Columbia expanded from 507,000 i n 1920 to 1,230,000 i n 1953; an average annual increase of 2.7 per cent versus the 1.7 per cent for a l l Canada. For 1952 and 1953 the population of B r i t i s h Columbia increased by 2.83 and 2.67 per cent res-pectively (Table 2). In 1953 i t was almost 62 per cent above the 1935-1939 l e v e l . Cattle and c a l f numbers i n B r i t i s h Columbia increased from 196,000 i n 1920 to 352,000 i n 1953. The increase to 1953 over the 1935-1939 annual average was 19.3 per cent, while f o r a l l Canada i t was 12.0 per cent. Cattle other than milk cows increased from 153,000 i n 1920 to 258,000 i n 1953 and were 26.4 per cent greater than the 1935-1939 "average. -11-TABLE 1 INDEX NUMBERS AND PER CAPITA RATIOS OF CATTLE AND CALVES IN CANADA, 1920-1953 Cattle Cattle Cattle Cattle other Population Cattle and other other than milk Year (1935-39 = and calves calves than than cows as 100) (1935-39 = per capita milk cows milk per cent 100) (1935-39 - cows per of t o t a l 100) capita c a t t l e 1920 77.4 93.6 .95 • 104.7 .60 63.4 21 79.5 96.0 .95 107.0 .60 63.1 22 80.7 94.8 .93 103.3 .57 61.7 23 81.5 91.5- .89 97-2 .53 60.1 24 82.7 93-3 .89 100.1 .54 60.7 25 84.1 91.5 .86 95.3 • 51 59.0 26 85.5 89-7 .83 90.1 .47 56.9 27 87.2 87-2 • 79 85.9 .44 55-7 28 89.0 85.6 .76 84.3 .42 55.8 29 90.7 86.3 .75 87.2 .43 57.3 1930 . 92.4 88.2 .75 90.2 .44 57-9 31 93.9 91.5 • 77 93.2 .44 57.7 32 95.1 98.1 .81 100.4 .47 58.0 33 96.2 102.7 .84 106.6 .50 58.8 34 97.2 104-1 .84 105-5 .48 57.4 35 98.1 102.9 .83 104.0 .47 57.2 36 99.1 101.3 .81 101.8 .46 56.9 37 99.9 .102.3 .81 102.7 .46 56.9 38 100.9 97-4 .76 96.5 .43 56.1 39 101.9 96.1 .74 95.1 .42 56.0 1940 103.0 96.1 • 74 95.8 .42 56.4 41 104-1 97-7 .74 99.1 .43 57-4 42 105.4 102.6 .77 106.6 .45 58.8 43 106.7 110.9 .82 118.9 .50 60.7 44 108.1 118.7 .87 130.0 .54 62.0 45 109.2 123.4 .89 137.0 .56 62.8 46 111.2 110.9 .79 120.6 .48 61.6 47 113.6 111.5 .77 122.0 .48 62.0 48 116.0 108.7 .74 117.0 .45 60.9 49 121.7 104.2 .68 110.6 .41 60.1 1950 124.1 103.8 .66 110.1 .40 60.1 51 126.8 95-9 .60 110.6 .39 65-3 52 130.6 105 .2 .64 125-7 .43 67.6 53 133.7 112.0 .66 134.0 .45 67.8 Sources: 1. Livestock and Animal Products S t a t i s t i c s . (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) 1920-1952.Quarterly  B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s . Vol. 46, No. 3. 2. Population of Canada by Provinces. June 1. 1954. (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) Memorandum. -12-TABLE 2 INDEX NUMBERS AND PER CAPITA RATIOS OF CATTLE AND CALVES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1920-1953 Cattle Cattle Cattle Cattle other Population Cattle and other other than milk Year (1935-39 = and calves calves than than cows as 100) (1935-39 = per milk cows milk per cent 100) capita (1935-39 = _ _ _ \ = cows per of t o t a l 100) capita c a t t l e 1920 66.6 66.5 .39 75-4 .30 78.4 21 69.0 70.9 .40 79.8 • 31 77. a 22 71.1 68.5 • 37 76.3 .29 77.0 23 72.9 66.8 • 35 70.5 .26 73-0 24 75.0 64.1 .33 66.7 .24 71.9 25 77-3 68.3 .34 71.1 .25 71.9 26 79.6 75-9 .37 81.5 .27 74-3 27 81.9 78.5 • 37 83-8 .27 . 73.8 28 84.2 84.1 .39 89.6 .29 73.7 29 86.6 85-9 .38 89.8 .28 72.3 1930 88.8 81.3 .35 82.1 .25 69.9 31 91.2 79-3 .34 74.0 .22 64.6 32 92.9 85-5 • 36 84.0 .24 67.9 33 94.2 91.6 .38 92.2 .26 69.6 34 95-5 . 94?8 • 38 95.1 .27 69.4 35 96.7 99.3 .40 100.4 .28 69.9 36 97.9 102.9 .41 102.7 .28 69.0 37 99.7 103-3 .40 103 .8 .28 69.4 38 101.8 99.3 .38 99.2 .26 69.1 39 104.1 95.2 .35 94.0 .24 68.3 1940 105.8 98.0 • 36 97.9 .25 69.0 41 107-5 110.3 .40 114.2 .28 71.6 42 114-3 111.5 .38 115.9 .27 71.9 43 118.3 127.4 .42 138.4 .31 75.1 44 122.5 129.3 .41 139.8 .31 74.8 45 124.7 141.2 .44 155.9 .34 76.3 46 131.8 132.0 .39 144.1 .29 75.5 47 137.2 121.6 .34 129.0 .25 73-4 48 142.2 122.7 .33 131.5 .25 74.1 49 146.3 118.1 .31 124.7 .23 73.0 1950 149.4 121.1 .31 126.2 .23 72.1 51 153.1 108.9 .28 116.8 .20 74.2 52 157.4 114.6 .28 124.6 .21 75-2 53 161.6 119-3 .29 126.4 .21 73.3 Sources: 1. Livestock and Animal Products S t a t i s t i c s . (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) 1920-1952. Quarterly  B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , V ol. 46, No. 3. 2. Population of Canada by Provinces, June 1. 1954. (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) Memorandum. -13-There were .39 animals per capita i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1920 and .29 i n 1953. The range for the period varied from a high of .44 animals per capita i n 1945 to a low of .28 i n 1952 and 1953. There were .30 c a t t l e other than milk cows per capita i n 1920 and .21 i n 1953 and they ranged from a high of .34 i n 1945 to a low of .20 i n 1951. Numbers of livestock per capita are considerably lower for B r i t i s h Columbia than for a l l Canada which i s consistent with the fac t that B r i t i s h Col-umbia i s a d e f i c i t area f o r beef while Canada as a whole i s a surplus area. (Figure 2). Closer examination of c a t t l e numbers, reveals cycles as well as some trend. For Canada, f a i r l y regular cycles can be traced. From 1906-1953 there were peaks i n c a t t l e numbers i n 1919, 1934, and 1945- The f i r s t low point was nine years af t e r the peak, the second and t h i r d were s i x years a f t e r , and the l a s t low point was i n 1951. In 1954 c a t t l e numbers were i n t h e i r t h i r d year of increase following the low of 1951. An almost i d e n t i c a l pattern was obtained f o r c a t t l e other than milk cows. The pattern of growth of c a t t l e numbers i n B r i t i s h Columbia i s s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t . Cycles are apparent but of a shorter length. Peak numbers have occurred every eight years from 1921 to 1945. However, the l a s t completed cycle was a l -most i d e n t i c a l to the cycle for c a t t l e numbers i n a l l Canada for the same period. This cycle -was twelve years i n length, - 1 5 -beginning with the low of 1939* It d i f f e r e d from previous cycles i n that the period of contraction lasted for s i x years rather than the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c two to three years. Cattle numbers i n B r i t i s h Columbia were i n t h e i r t h i r d year of ex-pansion i n 1 9 5 4 , following the low point of 1951 (Figure 3). A study of the growth i n r e l a t i v e numbers of the various types of c a t t l e reveals that while c a t t l e numbers have been increasing generally, the increases have not been the same for a l l types. Figures of c a t t l e numbers by types for a l l Canada from 1932-1953, indicate the following f a c t s : there has been l i t t l e change i n the percentage of b u l l s ; cows and heifers kept for milk have been decreasing (45.7 per cent of t o t a l in 1939 - 32.2 per cent i n 1953); beef cows and heifers two years old and over were increasing, (1935-1939 average was 7.0 per cent of t o t a l while 1949-1953 average was 13.3 per cent); no trend was indicated for yearling heifers kept for milk; yearling heifers and steers kept for beef have shown some increases since 1950; c a l f numbers have been i n -creasing for the whole period, (average percentage for 1935-1939 was 22.8, while f o r 1949-1953 it.was 25.3 per cent of t o t a l ) . There has been l i t t l e change i n the rela t i o n s h i p of calves to other animals since 1941 (Figure 4 and Appendix Table 1 7 ) . An almost i d e n t i c a l s i t u a t i o n exists i n B r i t i s h Col-umbia although the actual percentages d i f f e r somewhat.. The F I G U R E 3 . I N D E X OF T O T A L N U M B E R S O F C A T T L E A N D C A L V E S I N B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A 1 ? C A N A D A ? A N D U.S.A.f IS Ob -(IS55 - '5S H IOO) W25 f.30 - Y E A R -SOURCE:- 1) Agricultural Statistics Report, iq.EJVictori a. Department of Agriculture) p<*f 2) Liv-stocKand Animal Product Statistics.|95_.(Ottawa,Dominion BuneaupP Stat i s t i c s , ) Tablet, p7. Raport on the Li vestocK Survey o"P June 1, 1154, (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of _ts-t»tics) Memo. 3) The Li vestccK and Meat Situation, January IS5H (Washington, D. C-, United States Department o f Ao-t-icuIture)p- 15"--17-average percentage of each type of animal on Canadian and B r i t i s h Columbia farms f o r the period 1940-1953 are given be-low (figures for Canada are i n brackets). Bulls 2.1 (2.8); cows and hei f e r s , two years old and over for milk,27.6 (38.4); cows and h e i f e r s , two years old and over for beef, 21.5 (9.3); yearling heifers f o r milk 7.0 (9.9); yearling heifers for beef 7.2 (4.6); steers 13.4 (9*7); calves 21.2 ( 2 5.2). There i s a greater percentage of beef c a t t l e on farms i n B r i t i s h Columbia than on a l l Canadian farms. Trends of growth of c a t t l e numbers i n B r i t i s h Columbia are very sim-i l a r to those for a l l Canada (Figure 4, Appendix Table 18). Marketing Methods and In s t i t u t i o n s Importance The marketing and handling of beef from the farmer to the consumer i s important because i t absorbs almost as much of the consumers' meat d o l l a r as does the production of the animal. These d i s t r i b u t i o n costs include, buying and s e l l i n g , transporting, assembling, storing, standardizing, grading, financing, carrying r i s k , processing and r e t a i l i n g . In 1952 Canada had twelve stockyards under super-v i s i o n of the Department of Agriculture and there were l i v e -stock exchanges at f i v e of these. (Vancouver i s the major -19-centre for B r i t i s h Columbia). There were 103 registered operators "consisting of 12 cooperative associations, 35 com-mission merchants and 56 dealers.""'" In 1949 B r i t i s h Columbia issued 107 stock dealers' l i c e n s e s . Grading and P r i c i n g There are national beef grades by which carcasses may be graded f o r producer settlement. Grading and branding i s optional although a l l inspected meats are graded. Grade "A" i s branded "Red" and "B" i s "Blue." Other grades are "C", commercial beef] "DI," p l a i n ; "D2," good cows; "D3," 3 common cows; "M", Manufacturing; "S," b u l l s . P r o v i n c i a l l e g i s l a t i o n exists i n B r i t i s h Columbia requiring a l l quanti-t i e s of meat sold i n Vancouver to be branded. This does not mean that settlement to the producer must be carried out on the basis of o f f i c i a l grading. The producer i s free to s e l l his animals on the liveweight basis or he may ask for s e t t l e -ment on the basis of the o f f i c i a l grades of the government grader. * Canada Department of Agriculture, Report of the Minis-ter of Agriculture f o r Canada for the year ended March 31. 1952. (Ottawa. Queen's Printer) 1952. p. 102. 2 Carmichael, J . S. and Packham, T. S., Livestock Market-ing i n Western Canada. (Regina, Department of Cooperation and Cooperative Development) p. 58. J Canada Department of Agriculture, Livestock Market Re-view 1953, (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) p. 14. -20-"The purpose of grading l i v e s t o c k i s to ensure that producers get a return for t h e i r l i v e animals consistent with the quality and quantity of the meat obtained when the a n i -mal i s processed. The purpose of grading meat i s to ensure that consumers receive a product the quality of which i s reasonably consistent with the price they are ca l l e d upon to 1 pay." The marketing of livestock i s a highly specialized trade-as animals are perishable and are not uniform.in size or conformation. Furthermore, marketings tend to have sea-sonal peaks, creating problems of storage, processing and handling• Most ca t t l e are sold on a liveweight basis. This means the buyer must make f a i r l y accurate estimates of "... y i e l d or dressing percentage and the qu a l i t y or grade of the 2 carcasses on the r a i l . " These factors plus estimates of s e l l i n g prices guide the buyer i n his bidding. The rancher or his agent i n turn must decide whether these estimates are correct and i f a f a i r price i s being offered. It i s an even more d i f f i c u l t process to decide on price i n s e l l i n g meat to r e t a i l e r s and to consumers. Different Carmichael and Packham, dp. c i t . . p. 72. 2 Carmichael and Packham, bp. c i t . . p. 53 • -21-types of animals have d i f f e r e n t dressing percentages and poor cuts of meat must be disposed of as well as the good ones; by-products form a large percentage of the carcass and i t i s d i f f i c u l t to estimate the costs and net returns. A complete analysis of this, phase of the industry would require a study in i t s e l f . a Methods of Sale The Cooperative; Producers have a number of a l t e r n a t i v e means of disposing of t h e i r l i v e s t o c k . Some s e l l d i r e c t l y to packers, others s e l l through dealers' agents, some prefer the cooperative method. B r i t i s h Columbia producers formed the B r i t i s h Columbia Livestock Producers' Cooperative Association in 1943 as a marketing organization. The Cooperative owns the Vancouver stockyards but only a small percentage of the Association's sales are handled there. The Cooperative was organized c h i e f l y to market cat-t l e from the i n t e r i o r of the Province. In order to f u l f i l l t h i s purpose the Cooperative employs fieldmen who act as sales agents for i t s members. Usually the actual sale i s made at the ranch. The packers send t h e i r representatives to the ranch and the Cooperative's fieldman, who i s a marketing spe-c i a l i s t , acts as agent for the rancher. The Cooperative re-ceives i t s remuneration by c o l l e c t i n g commissions on the sales i t makes. Sales conducted i n t h i s manner a,void the problems -22-of shipping animals to the stockyards as shipments are usu-a l l y made d i r e c t to the packer. A small proportion (about 15 per cent) of the Co-operative's sales are made through the Vancouver Stockyards. Actually the stockyards are owned by the Cooperative and i t i s t h e i r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y to provide the necessary f a c i l i t i e s for the handling and sale of livestock at the yards. They also act as the governing body to see that the provisions of the Livestock and Livestock Products Act and the Stock-yard regulations are carried out. One of the main provisions of the Act i s that the sales agency may not buy or s e l l l i v e -stock on i t s own i n i t i a t i v e . The Cooperative w i l l provide a sales agent to act on behalf of i t s members at the yards i f they desire one. Actually the Cooperative works in a number of ways to help i t s members. Agents are provided to give the rancher greater bargaining power, assistance i s given i n assembly of animals for delivery i n order to lower hauling costs, and i n -formation with respect to conditions of demand and supply i n the market i s gathered and passed on for the producer's benefit. Other Agencies; Although the Cooperative handles the largest part of the cattle sold i n B r i t i s h Columbia, producers have access to other means of sale. They may choose to use the f a c i l i t i e s of the stockyards and to act as t h e i r own agent -23-i n bargaining with the packers, thus avoiding the sales com-mission. They may also s e l l t h e i r c a t t l e by public auction held at the stockyards, to which a l l buyers are i n v i t e d . If the auction method i s used the s e l l e r retains authority of sale and may ask for retention of his animals or for r a i l grading i f he i s uns a t i s f i e d with the o f f e r s made. Commission men also act as agents for the producer and negotiate sales for a commission. Another a l t e r n a t i v e i s to s e l l to drovers who i n turn may s e l l through a sales agency or dire c t to the packers. Producers also p a r t i c i p a t e a c t i v e l y i n sales by or-ganization of livestock auctions i n centres i n main areas of production. "... ca t t l e sales are held once or twice yearly at Elke, Okanagan F a l l s , Williams Lake and Q u e s n e l . T h e s e sales are mainly of grass f a t stock. Transportation There has been considerable f l u c t u a t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia between the use of truck and r a i l methods of ship-ping c a t t l e . Truck shipments between 1940 and 1953 average 22.3 per cent of the t o t a l . Individual year percentages var-ied from 13-36 to 39.79 but no trend was indicated. For a l l Canada, truck shipments were much higher and from 1940-1953, 1 ~~ Carmichael, J. S., and Packham, T. S., Livestock Mar- keting i n Western Canada, (Regina-, Department of Cooperation and Cooperative Development) p. 56. -24-almost 50 per cent of a l l shipments moved by truck. Indiv-idual year percentages fluctuated from 33 »9 to 71.1 (Appen-dix Table 19). Assembly and Storage The public stockyards are the main assembly points. The r a i l r o a d s own over one hundred corrals or small pens with loading f a c i l i t i e s f o r holding c a t t l e temporarily. P r i -vate buyers at some larger points own small holding pens and i n B r i t i s h Columbia the Canadian P a c i f i c Railway owns some f a i r l y large assembly stockyards at Cranbrook, Kamloops, Ash-croft and Savanos. Livestock are not permitted to t r a v e l longer than 36 hours by r a i l without feed and water and the yards provide t h i s service. Under the Cold Storage Act subsidies are granted by the Federal Government to encourage the construction and equip-ping of cold storage warehouses for public use. Some stor-age space i s designated as public and some as priva t e . In B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1953 there were 29,492,738 cubic feet of refrigerated space, and in Canada 106,401,066 cubic feet. B r i t i s h Columbia had 76 public warehouses, 26 private ware-houses and 72 locker plant warehouses i n which there was a t o t a l of almost 950,000 cubic feet of r e f r i g e r a t e d space. Over 22.5 m i l l i o n cubic feet of ref r i g e r a t e d space costing $9,384,775 was subsidized to-the extent of $2,815,429 i n -25- ' B r i t i s h Columbia. There was an average of over eight m i l l i o n pounds of fresh beef, fourteen and one-half m i l l i o n pounds of frozen beef, one-half m i l l i o n pounds of cured beef, and three and one-half m i l l i o n pounds of veal i n storage i n B r i t i s h Col-umbia i n 1953. 1 Financing and Risk Taking Some financing may be required at a l l l e v e l s .of marketing from the farmer to the consumer. The longer the per-iod which the product must be held the greater the amount of financing that w i l l be needed. Associated with financing i s the problem of r i s k and uncertainty a r i s i n g from such things as changes i n consumer preference, price changes, variations in general economic conditions, f i r e , theft, disease and prod-uct deterioration. 1 Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Canada Year Book, 1954. (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) p. 920-22. CHAPTER III HISTORICAL REVIEW OF THE SUPPLY SITUATION Production Cattle Marketing Patterns for B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada Marketings of c a t t l e and calves have increased since 1940 i n both Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia. This has resulted in spite of the fact that c a t t l e numbers have not shown a proportionate increase. This seems to indicate that a f a s t e r turnover of animal numbers takes place now than i n the ear-l i e r period. There were 35,603 head of c a t t l e marketed i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1940 and 42,057 i n 1953. Marketings i n a l l years since 1940 have exceeded that year; i n 1945 they were 182.9 per cent of 1940 and for 1952 and 1953 they were 106.5 and 118.1 per cent respectively. When the movement of c a t t l e back to farms within the province are subtracted, the peak marketings are s l i g h t l y lower but the trend is. much the same. Marketings for a l l Canada have followed a s i m i l a r pattern. The t o t a l for 1940 was 1,209,964; i n 1953 they were 1,767,599 - a gain of 46.1 per cent. Peak marketings occurred i n 1948 when they were at 170 per cent of the 1940 l e v e l (Table 3). Inward movement of c a t t l e (movement back to the farms for further feeding) for Canada i s quite substantial and -26--27-TABLE 3 CATTLE MARKETINGS, CANADA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1940-1953 Year Index of marketings i n Canada (1940 -100 ) B r i t i s h Columbia - . , . . marketings u ^ _ u i i i u _ _ m a r k e t i n g s i n B r i t i s h a s percent marketings d i r e o t t o of Canada di r e c t to marketings Index of marketings Columbia (1940 a 100) B r i t i s h Columbia packers Canada packers per cent per cent per cent 1940 100.0 100.0 2.9 58.7 28.5 41 111.1 104-4 2.8 69.3 30.2 42 106.5 114.4 3.2 78.7 28.9 43 102.8 129-9 3.7 73.2 32.4 44 126.4 141.8 3-3 71.3 33.5 45 167.1 165 .0 2.9 76.8 36.0 46 157.1 164.5 3-1 78.8 36.5 47 129.3 131.2 3.0 83.4 34.9 48 170.0 167-5 2.9 77.2 33-4 49 163.8 135.4 2.4 80.9 35-7 1950 153.6 161.6 3.1 72.0 32.7 51 132.3 182.9 4.1 57.6 30.7 52 118.0 106.5 2.7 72.5 33.9 53 146.1 118.1 2.4 64.8 32.3 Sources: 1. Livestock Market Review. 1953. (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) pp. 52-53; 1949, pp. 48-49; 1945, pp. 48-49; 1944, pp. 48-49. -28-when subtracted from t o t a l marketings, 1942 and 1943 are years with less marketings than 1940, and 1948 i s the peak year at 165 per cent of 1940. The average for 1952 and 1953 was 24*4 per cent above 1940. B r i t i s h Columbia marketings f o r 1940-1953 averaged about 3 per cent of the t o t a l for Canada; these ranged from a low of 2.4 per cent i n 1949 and 1953 to a high of 4.1 i n 1951. A l l percentages are s l i g h t l y higher when inward movement has been deducted. Total c a l f marketings for Canada have fluctuated but no trend has been indicated. B r i t i s h Columbia, however, has shown over three-fold increase from a low of 2,169 mar-keted in 1940 to 7,537 i n 1953-Closer examination of c a t t l e marketings reveals that the percentage of d i r e c t marketings to packers of the t o t a l to public yards and packers has varied considerably from year to year f o r a l l Canada and f o r B r i t i s h Columbia but no trend seems to have been established. Direct marketings averaged 72.5 per cent of the t o t a l for 1940-1953 i n B r i t i s h Columbia and 32.8 per cent for a l l Canada. The range for B r i t i s h Col-umbia was from a low of 57*6 per cent to a high of 83-4. There was considerably l e s s v a r i a t i o n i n the percentage of direct marketings for a l l Canada (Table 3). -29-Marketings by type were studied for the years 1940-1953.1 As compared with a l l Canada, B r i t i s h Columbia had a higher percentage of steers up to 1,000 pounds, e s p e c i a l l y of the choice, good and medium classes. There were very few fed calves i n B r i t i s h Columbia but for a l l Canada they made up from 5 to 9 per cent of a l l c a t t l e marketings. For most years B r i t i s h Columbia had a higher percentage of marketings of cows, having an average of 33 per cent for the period against 29 per cent for Canada. B r i t i s h Columbia had a smal-l e r percentage of stocker steers; for other types of c a t t l e mentioned, no appreciable differences were noted. Definite trends were indicated i n marketings for some types over the 1940-1953 period i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Choice steers up to 1,000 pounds increased from an average of 1.07 per cent for 1940-1942 to an average of 4.6 per cent f o r 1951-1953« There was a decrease i n the good and medium cl a s -ses and an increase i n common types. Similar changes have taken place for steers over 1,000 pounds as well as for heif-ers. Marketings of cows averaged 33-2 per cent of a l l market-ings for 1940-1953 and fluctuated considerably from a low of 26.8 to a high of 42.7 per cent. Feeder steer marketings have not increased (Figure 5). 1 The figures f o r marketings by type are for those ship-ped to plants and yards. Animals shipped direct on export or back to farms are not included, as a comparable breakdown for these groups was not a v a i l a b l e . I9«t5 N5D - Y E A R -ms rt Y E A R — S T E E R S U N O E R 1000LBS. C O W S , B U L L S , 5T O C K E R S A N O F E E D E R S II a n Marketings for a l l Canada indicate some changes over the 1940-1953 period as w e l l . The number of choice and common steers increased considerably; good steers increased s l i g h t l y ; cow marketings dropped i n 1953 from an average of 29 per cent for the period studied to a low of 22.8 per cent. L i t t l e change was shown for other types (Figure 6). A more detailed analysis on the basis of figures for 1951-1953 reveals some facts about the seasonal pattern of marketings i n B r i t i s h Columbia (Appendix Table 20). For the best grades of animals there seems to have been two peak per-iods each year - February to March and August or September to December. Common steers and a l l classes of heifers were sold c h i e f l y in the f a l l period. Heaviest marketings of cows oc-curred from July to December. B u l l marketings were more evenly distributed over the year but peaks came i n JIune and December. Feeder steers and stock cows and heifers were sold mostly from August to December. Total marketings of a l l types were gener-a l l y highest i n March and from September to December. -The average of t o t a l marketings for 1951-1953 was 8.6 per cent i n March and from 12.6 to 16.2 per cent for the l a t t e r period. Other months of the year had a more even d i s t r i b u t i o n of the remaining marketings. The pattern of seasonal marketings for a l l Canada was s l i g h t l y different than that for B r i t i s h Columbia (Appendix -33-Table 21). Good and choice steers had the most d e l i v e r i e s i n May and June and occasionally i n A p r i l and July, depending on the grade and the year. There was considerable v a r i a t i o n by years for common to medium steers and heifers but the heaviest marketings seemed to occur from September to December. There did not seem to be any r e a l pattern of marketings of good and choice h e i f e r s . Heaviest marketings of cows was from Septem-ber to December. Feeder steers and stock cows and h e i f e r s had heaviest d e l i v e r i e s from August to December. For a l l marketings the most' sales were i n June and from September to December. There was a f a i r l y substantial number shipped back to farms from August to December. This l a s t group accounted for 13.2 per cent of all.marketings from 1951-1953 (Figure 7 - 1 4 ) . Cattle Slaughterings i n B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada Total Slaughterings; Cattle slaughterings have gradually increased i n Canada, over the period 1930-1953. In 1930 there were 943,200 animals slaughtered, whereas, i n 1953 there were 1,837,500 -- almost 100 per cent increase (Appendix Table 22). In 1940 slaughterings were 4«1 per cent above the 1935-1939 average and i n 1953 they were up by 36.4 per cent. Cattle Slaughterings i n Inspected Establishments; In B r i -t i s h Columbia f o r the period 1940-1953 inspected slaughter has Price. -+-+-B.C.Mktos. Canada MKfcss. ——— -42- ' varied from a low of 65,084 animals i n 1940 to a high of 123,443 in 1945. Inspected slaughterings were 165-2 per cent of the 1940 l e v e l i n 1953. Calf slaughterings varied even more, be-ing 93.8 per cent of the 1940 l e v e l i n 1947 and 191.1 per cent in 1950. Inspected slaughterings for a l l Canada had.much the same pattern with a low of 890,919 c a t t l e slaughtered i n 1940, and a high i n 1945 of 1,819,024. They were 164.9 per cent of the 1940 l e v e l , i n 1953 (Table 4). TABLE 4 INDEX OF CATTLE AND CALF SLAUGHTERINGS IN INSPECTED ESTABLISHMENTS IN CANADA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PER CENT OF ANIMALS REJECTED OR CONDEMNED OF TOTAL FOR CAN&.DA 1940-1953 B r i t i s h Columbia Canada (1940 = 100) (1940 = 100) Year Cattle Calves Cattle Calves Rejected or condemned (% of t o t a l ) 1940 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.22 41 112.1 138.3 112.7 103.4 a1.26 42 122.7 111.9 108.9 94.7 1.24 43 137-4 140.8 114.6 84.4 1.12 44 147-9 150.0 152.0 93.9 1.14 45 189.7 162.6 204.2 111.9 1.16 46 184-1 153.4 187-3 106.9 1.13 47 154.5 93.8 145.0 94.5 1.30 48 167.6 153.0 167.2 111.9 1.43 49 167.6 175-2 161.6 108.9 1.33 1950 151.8 191.1 144.2 109 .8 1.21 51 133.1 124.4 129.1 82.9 .95 52 148.5 105.8 138.9 80.7 .69 53 165.2 130.3 164.9 105.2 Sources : 1."Livestock Market Review 1953. (Ott awa, Department of Agriculture) p. 28. 2. Livestock and Animal Product . S t a t i s t i c s 1952. (Ottawa Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1953) Table 9, p. 11. -43-The percentage of slaughterings i n inspected estab-lishments i n Canada has been increasing. Inspected slaughter was 63.5 per cent of the t o t a l slaughter i n 1940 and 80 per cent i n 1953- From 1951-1953, 80.9 per cent of the t o t a l slaughter was inspected (Table 5). TABLE 5 INSPECTED SLAUGHTER OF CATTLE AS PER CENT OF TOTAL SLAUGHTER IN CANADA Year Per Cent 1934 70.8 35 62.0 36 68.9 37 66J1 38 61.9 39 65-3 1940 63-5 41 64.3 42 62.1 43 56.6 44 69.1 45 75.2 46 73-6 47 61.5 48 76.3 49 75.6 1950 74.3 51 78.1 52 84.8 53 80.0 The number of rejected or condemned animals has been changing a l s o . From 1940 to 1952 they ranged from a high of 32,663 i n 1948 to a low of 12,543 i n 1952 (Appendix Table 23). This represented 1.43 per cent of the t o t a l slaughter i n 1948 -44-and .69 per cent i n 1952. Although the percentage remained f a i r l y constant over most of the period, there was a sharp decrease i n both 1951 and 1952, in d i c a t i n g that favourable trend may have been established i n a costly f a c t o r . f o r the industry. Possibly as a result of the above trend the con-demnation insurance charge of one half of one per cent on a l l livestock sold for slaughter i n Canada was discontinued on September 15, 1953• 1 Beef Carcass Grades: A study of inspected slaughterings by grade i n B r i t i s h Columbia for 1947-1953 revealed the f o l -lowing! The percentage of grade "A." animals inspected was i n -creasing, having r i s e n from 14.5 per cent i n 1948 to 41.6 per cent i n 1953J grade "B" animals were decreasing, having dropped from 33.17 per cent i n 1947 to 20.46 per cent i n 1953. grade "C" was decreasing; Dl unchanged, D2, D3, M, were decreasing; and "S" was unchanged. The grades for a l l Canada indicate l i t t l e change ex-cept that "A" and "B" have been increasing while M has decreased. Some comparisons can be made between gradings i n a l l Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia. There was more than twice the percentage of "A I Ms i n B r i t i s h Columbia; there was l i t t l e difference i n the percentage of "B' Ms, but the trends were i n opposite d i r e c t i o n s . There was about 6 per cent more "C"'s for a l l Canada, about 5 x Canada Department of Agriculture, Livestock Market Re- view. 1953, (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) p.7. -45-per cent more Dl, 6 per cent more D2, 4 per cent more D3j 5 per cent more M, and s l i g h t l y more S than for B r i t i s h Columbia. These differences are probably due to the high percentage of imports to B r i t i s h Columbia and the development of a market for better class meat by the trade i n that area (Appendix Table 24)• The Average Dressed Weight: Animals slaughtered i n Can-ada for the period 1940-1953 varied from 455 pounds dressed in 1949 to 498 pounds i n 1952. The average for the period was 470 pounds. There has been considerable f l u c t u a t i o n with a period of above average weights from 1942-1944 and one of be-low average from 1945-1950. The year 1953 was.the t h i r d i n a series of above average weights (Appendix Table 22). CHAPTER IV HISTORICAL REVIEW OF THE DEMAND SITUATION The Consumption of Meat Total Consumption The consumption of a l l meat depends on supplies, prices, incomes, size of population, tastes of in d i v i d u a l s , and a v a i l a b i l i t y and price of substitute products. The con-sumption of i n d i v i d u a l types of meat depends not only on the above factors, but on the substitution of one type of meat for another. The t o t a l per capita annual meat consumption in Can-ada from 1930-1953 has varied considerably but there has been an upward trend (Figure 16). Using the 1935-1939 average con-sumption as a base of 100 the index of consumption was 95.2 i n 1933, 131.4 i n 1943 and 118.4 i n 1953. In terms of quantity of meat t h i s was 112.6, 155*5 and 140.1 pounds respectively. Consumption for 1953 was up about seven pounds over the pre-vious year and 1954 preliminary estimates indicate a further increase. Beef Consumption Beef consumption during the same period has ranged from 69.3 pounds per capita i n 1943 to 43.7 pounds i n 1951. In index terms (basis 1935-1939 = 100) t h i s represents a -46--48-fl u c t u a t i o n from 126.7 to 79-9 — much greater than for a l l meat consumption. Total consumption of beef was lowest i n 1932 at 478,162,000 pounds and highest i n 1953 at 873,196,000 pounds (Appendix Table 22). Total supplies consisting of slaughter, storage stocks and imports were highest i n 1945 with 1,151,495,000 pounds and lowest i n 1933 at 491,568,000 pounds. Much of the larger supply of 1945 was absorbed by the export trade, the canning industry and by a high l e v e l of home consumption. During 1930-1953 beef consumption ranged from a high of 48.5 per cent of per capita consumption of a l l meat i n 1938, to a low of 32.7 per cent i n 1951. Conversely, pork consump-t i o n was lowest i n 1938 and highest i n 1951. Consumption of beef was greater than that of prok for most years. From 1934-1948 beef consumption ranged from 106.8 per cent of pork con-sumption, to 151.7 per cent; from 1949-1952 the range was from 64.5 to 95.4 per cent but i n 1953 beef consumption was up again to 103.7 per cent of pork consumption. Closer examina-t i o n of figures for beef and pork consumption r e l a t i v e to t o t a l meat consumed indicates that i n almost every instance an increase i n the percentage of beef consumed results i n an almost equal decrease i n the per cent of pork consumed and visa versa (Figure 15, also Appendix Table 25). - 4 9 -The Nature of the Demand for Meat i n Canada E l a s t i c i t y of Demand Schrader"*" found that the price e l a s t i c i t y of demand for meat i n Canada at the r e t a i l l e v e l was -1.05 and at the wholesale and farm l e v e l the price e l a s t i c i t i e s were -0.65 and -0.40 respectively. Part of these differences i n price elas-t i c i t y at the various market l e v e l s i s explained as follows: The consumer i s at l i b e r t y to substitute products other than meat to s a t i s f y his diet when the p r i c e r i s e s above the l e v e l he desires to pay; the r e t a i l e r can substitute by s e l l i n g a variety of meat products but i f he wishes to maintain his bus-iness he must keep stocked i n a l l kinds of meat and therefore his purchases are l e s s e l a s t i c than the consumers; the proces-sor has very l i t t l e d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n and his a b i l i t y to make a p r o f i t depends larg e l y on keeping his plants running as near to capacity as possible. Thus the processor's demand for the farmer's product i s somewhat more i n e l a s t i c than the r e t a i l -er's demand for the processor's product. The r e l a t i v e l y f i x e d margins on prices between the farmer, the processor and the r e t a i l e r also help create the differences i n e l a s t i c i t y . The packer, the r e t a i l e r and other Schrader, F. M., The Demand for Meat i n Canada (Ottawa, Canada Department of Agr i c u l t u r e ) , July, 1953. -50-marketing agencies have f i x e d costs which must be met and thus they maintain a f a i r l y constant margin or spread between the purchase and sale price of the product. A price change at the producer l e v e l represents a greater percentage change than at the processor or r e t a i l e r l e v e l and therefore the producer i s faced with a more i n e l a s t i c demand for his product. Meat Substitutes The above figures on e l a s t i c i t y of demand indicate that red meat substitutes play an important part. These sub-s t i t u t e s include f i s h , poultry, eggs, vegetables and cereals. 1 Meats also substitute one for the other. Woollam found that an inverse rel a t i o n s h i p existed between the r a t i o of the price of beef to pork and the consumption of beef to pork. Freehand f i t t i n g s to data i n t h i s study gave almost the same res u l t s but with less of the v a r i a t i o n explained. This would indicate that there were other important causes of v a r i a t i o n between the r a t i o s f o r the years 1930-1952. Mathematically f i t t e d curves in Woollam's study show that a one per cent change i n the relationship of the wholesale p r i c e of beef to pork r e s u l t s i n a one per cent change i n the opposite d i r e c t i o n i n the r a t i o of consumption of beef to pork, in d i c a t i n g that the two products Woollam, G. E., The Influence of Prices on the Relative Consumption of Beef and Pork, (Ottawa, Canada Department of Agriculture) June, 1953. 2 Ibid. -51-are p r a c t i c a l l y interchangeable from the consumer point of view. Breimyier, i n the United States, found that a pound of pork had about 2/5 the effect of a pound of beef on the price of beef."'" Thus when the price of pork i s high there w i l l be a greater demand for beef at a cer t a i n price than when the price of pork i s low. Previously i t has been indicated that there i s an inverse r e l a t i o n s h i p i n Canada between the price and consumption r a t i o s of beef and pork. The extent of the substitution effect i n recent years i s shown by the fact that from 1952 to 1953 there was a drop i n the price of beef r e l a -t i v e to pork, which was accompanied by an increase of 14.4 pounds per capita i n consumption of beef while pork consump-ti o n f e l l by 8.9 pounds. For Canada t h i s increase i n beef consumption amounted to 211,368,300 pounds or 422,736 head, ( i n terms of dressed animals at 500 pounds per head) - an i n -crease over 1952 of 32.7 per cent or the equivalent of 23 per cent of the slaughter i n 1953* Purchasing Power 2 Schrader has found.that a one per cent increase i n i n d u s t r i a l production per capita ( r e f l e c t i n g consumers' a b i l i t y to purchase goods and services) i s associated with s l i g h t l y over ^ Breimyier, H. F., (United States Department of A g r i -culture), — l e t t e r to the author. ^ Schrader, F. M., The Demand for Meat i n Canada. (Ot-tawa, Canada Department of Agriculture) July, 1953. -52-one per cent increase i n the wholesale prices of meat* The weights used i n the consumer price index indicate that about 8 per cent of income i s spent on meat. In the United States the amount has varied between 5 and 6 per cent of the t o t a l disposable income.^" It would appear then that consumers tend to maintain a f a i r l y constant percentage of income to be spent for meat. Population Changes Changing population i s a major factor influencing meat consumption. Changes may occur i n tastes but changes i n the structure of the population as to numbers, age, s,ex and occupation are the most important factors which tend to a f f e c t the consumption pattern. The major changes i n demand due to population changes are the r e s u l t of increases i n numbers. This can be quite e f f e c t i v e l y demonstrated by the use of Canadian population figures for 1945-1953. The increase i n population over t h i s period was 2.7 m i l l i o n ; multiplying t h i s by the per capita consumption of beef i n 1953 of 59.1 pounds, would give 159,570,000 pounds of additional beef consumed i n 1953 over 1945, or an increase of 22.4 per cent i f the per capita consumption re-mained constant. This amount of beef ( i n terms of dressed animals 1 The United States Department of Agriculture, The Live-stock and Meat Situation. (United States Department of A g r i -culture) March, 1954, p. 39. -53-at 500 pounds each) would be equivalent to 319,140 animals or s l i g h t l y over 17 per cent of the slaughter i n 1953* With the present trend in population i t can be expected that an ad-d i t i o n a l 30,000 to 40,000 animals per year w i l l be required to meet Canadian demands at home. For B r i t i s h Columbia increases i n demand should be even greater; the Province 1s population has been increasing at a faster rate than that of a l l Canada and increased i n d u s t r i a l development i n t h i s area would seem to indicate that the trend w i l l continue upward. The Export-Import Trade Canada Livestock and meat are among the major export prod-ucts f o r Canada. The export demand varies from year to year and has a considerable effect on the market si t u a t i o n and out-look for the beef industry. Cattle and Calf Exports and Imports; Since 1930 exports of c a t t l e have varied from 23-3 per cent of t o t a l marketings i n 1950 to a low of 1.1 per cent i n 1952. Exports were.up again i n 1953 to 3*8 per cent. The largest number of exports were i n 1947 when 446,458 head were shipped, mostly to the United States. Only 14,930 head were exported i n 1952. Ex-ports for the period 1930-1953 amounted to 10.5 per cent of marketings (Appendix Table 26)• -54-Exports of l i v e calves have varied as much or more than c a t t l e . The highest percentage of marketings on export was 11.60 i n 1937 with 99,648 head; the lowest in 1947 with .07 per cent or 496 head. Exports for 1930-1953 amounted to 3.8 per cent of marketings. Live c a t t l e exports dropped to i n s i g n i f i c a n c e i n 1951; some gains were made i n 1953 and 1954 hut the number remains r e l a t i v e l y small. A study of c a t t l e exports by clas-ses since 1948 reveals that there has been considerable f l u c -tuation by type as well as by t o t a l numbers. There seems to be a tendency for a greater percentage of pure-bred animals to be exported. Since 1950 pure-breds have increased from 5.4 per cent to 30.2 per cent of l i v e animal exports. In spite of t h i s there has been a drop i n numbers exported i n t h i s c l a s s . There were a few dairy c a t t l e i n the 200-700 pound class, but most of these were over 70.0 pounds. Exports of other c a t t l e between 200-700 pounds have declined considerably, having con-sti t u t e d 36.8 per cent of the t o t a l i n 1950 but anly 2.1 per cent i n 1953. Other c a t t l e over 700 pounds form a major part of exports; they made up 35«2 per cent i n 1953, having dropped from an average of over 50 per cent for 1948-1951 (Table 6). Beef Exports and Imports; Trade has not been e n t i r e l y i n the form of l i v e animals. In some years more has been exported -55-TABLE 6 EXPORTS OF CATTLE FROM CANADA, IN PER CENT, BY TYPE, 1948-1953 Year Pure Bred Dairy 200-700 l b s . Dairy over 700 lbs. Other 200-700 l b s . Other over 700 lbs. 1948 49 1950 51 52 53 10.32 5.57 5.43 8.58 19.48 30.24 .02 .05 .14 .20 .17 .16 19-38 12.12 10.76 16.24 33.92 32.30 15.99 26.55 36.76 20.35 15.08 2.13 54.29 55.71 46.91 54.63 31.34 35.17 Sources: Livestock Market Review 1953, (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) p. 7j 1952, p. 7. as carcass beef. Beef exports have varied from a low of about 3.8 m i l l i o n pounds i n 1931 to a high of 194.8 m i l l i o n i n 1945. Heaviest exports took place during and just a f t e r the war. Canned beef export figures, do not seem to be ava i l a b l e , but i n spite of the f a i r l y large amount of exports of canned meats there seems to be enough evidence to indicate that only a small part of i t was of beef content, and therefore i t would not con-s t i t u t e a very great error to ignore i t . Canned meat exports i n t o t a l a c t ually have dropped to le s s than 10 m i l l i o n pounds per year since 1949."^  Imports of beef have been considerable i n some years. Canned beef, c h i e f l y from the Argentine, constituted a major part of imports. I n order to arrive at the net effect of out-side trade imports were subtracted from exports to obtain a net x Canada Department of Agriculture, Livestock Market Re-view, 1953* (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) p. 30. -56-trade figure. Net exports or imports of beef were then con-verted to the animal basis (dressed weight of animals taken as 500 pounds). On thi s basis the beef trade varied from 56,046 imports i n 1939 to 386,670 exports i n 1945. In 1952, beef ex-ports were equivalent to four times the number of animals ex-ported a l i v e . Total of a l l exports of beef and l i v e animals varied from 5 per cent of t o t a l marketings i n 1943, to 34-6 per cent i n 1948. (For l i v e animal exports the extremes were 1.05 per cent for 1952 and 23*31 per cent for 1950). (Table 7). Imports of cattle to Canada have been very small. From 1940 to the present the only imports were for improvement stock. Imports of beef including canned beef, have already been taken into account in the previous section. The greatest amount of imports of beef was i n 1951 when 51,185,100 pounds were imported or the equivalent of 102,270 animals. A large percentage of the imports of beef was canned beef and about 50 per cent of t h i s came from Argentina. (Table 7). B r i t i s h Columbia It i s d i f f i c u l t to obtain figures f o r B r i t i s h Colum-bia exports and imports outside of Canada as there i s consid-erable i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l trade i n c a t t l e and beef. Most of B r i t i s h Columbia's i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l trade i s with Alberta. In 1949 there were 26,147 head of cat t l e shipped from Alberta to B r i t i s h Columbia while i n 1953 there were only 11,657 head. -57-TABLE 7 NET EXPORTS^OF BEEF AND CATTLE FROM CANADA, 1930-1951 Net beef exports Exports as Cattle Total peroent of Year exports i n terms of 500 l b s . carcasses exports t o t a l marketings 1930 27,554 10,750 38,294 31 40,217 28,464 6,737 46,954 -32 . 8,381 36,845 5.95 33 59>158 19,983 79,141 . 10.65 34 63,673 29,939 93,612 10.03 35 112,771 233,631 17,671 130,442 12.01 36 -27,084 -15,361 206,547 16.10 37 222,112 129,807 206,751 96,454 14.97 38 -33,353 8.98 39 208,791 -56,046 152,745 119,078 174,596 12.91 1940 157,264 -38,186 -18,645 9.84 41 193,241 12.98 42 161,406 10,027 171,433 13.30 43 60,385 1,809 62,194 5.00 44 .57,812 190,242 248,054 16.22 45 77,301 386,670 463,971 22.95 46 103,214 276,370 279,584 19.97 47 82,727 100,410 183,137 11.71 48 446,458 265,185 711,643 34.60 49 389,131 159,192 548,323 27.67 1950 433,168 115,684 548,852 29.53 51 227,729 92,458 320,187 20.00 52 14,930 67,476 82,406 5-77 ft Net refers to exports minus imports, other than l i v e cattle, which have been small i n number. Sources: 1. Livestock and Animal Product S t a t i s t i c s , 1952. (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) Table 32, p. 30; Ibid., 1939, Table 42, p. 34. 2. Livestock Market Review, 1953 (Ottawa, Depart-ment of Agriculture) p. 31. -58-During the same two years c a t t l e shipments from B r i t i s h Col-umbia to Alberta were 4,948 and 5,2.23 respectively. Peak ship-ments from B r i t i s h Columbia to other provinces were 9,878 i n 1951, the only year i n which there were more animals shipped out than were brought i n . (Appendix Table 27). Peak shipments to country points i n other provinces were 1,097 i n 1951. There were also some l i v e c a t t l e shipped d i r e c t on export. In 1951 there were actually 12,561 head exported but for most years the number i s r e l a t i v e l y small. Marketings of cat t l e i n B r i t i s h Columbia have been decreasing i n spite of the increasing human population. Total B r i t i s h Columbia marketings, less the movement back to farms, multiplied by the average dressed weight of beef should give a close estimate of production. This estimate taken as a per-centage of requirements based on the average per capita con-sumption of beef i n Canada and using the B r i t i s h Columbia population figures, indicates that approximately 61 per cent of consumption was imported between 1946 and 1953* Imports i n 1951 were about 40 per cent of consumption and i n 1953 about 73 per cent, ind i c a t i n g considerable v a r i a t i o n i n production. (Table 8). 1 Note:- these figures w i l l be low on the production side to the extent that farmers and l o c a l butchers have unreported slaughter. Consumption figures are based on estimates of a l l slaughtering i n Canada. 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Preliminary estimates indicate gross production of c a t t l e and calves i n 1952 was valued at $12,885,000; imports, $16,238,000; exports including beef and veal, $5,137,000; and imports of beef and veal, $1,893,000.1 These figures are not detailed enough, however, to give close estimates of production, consumption and imports for the Province. Livestock T a r i f f and Trade Regulations Since 1930 there have been various t a r i f f rates and quota agreements with respect to l i v e s t o c k and beef shipments to the United States. Since 1939 almost a l l shipments of l i v e animals went to the United States and since 1949 most ship-ments of beef as w e l l . T a r i f f s have ranged from one and one-half to three cents per pound depending on the type of animal. From February 25, 1952, to March 2, 1953, there was a ban on a l l imports from Canada to the United States as a res u l t of hoof and mouth disease i n Canada. After the l a t t e r date the following rates were i n e f f e c t . "Slaughter and feeder, under 200 l b . (quota 200,000), over quota, 2^ #; 200-699 l b . , 2_>$; 700 l b . and over (quota 400,000), l i $ ; over quota, 2^. 2 Dairy cows, 700 l b . and over, l j * . n (Appendix l ) . 1 B r i t i s h Columbia Department of Agriculture, A g r i c u l -t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s Report, 1952, ( B r i t i s h Columbia Department of Agriculture) 1953, p. 50-52. Canada Department of Agriculture, Livestock Market Re-view, 1953. (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) March, r954, p. 31. CHAPTER IV REVIEW OF PRICES AND COSTS AND AN APPRAISAL OF THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY Prices The General Price Situation There i s an i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p between prices of the various grades or types of ca t t l e but they do not neces-s a r i l y follow the same pattern of change either seasonally or annually. There are differences i n price due to quality of product fluctuations in marketings, and consumer preferences. If the market i s perfect, there should be no differences be-tween markets except those r e s u l t i n g from transportation, storage and handling charges. Prices over time should be the same plus or minus storage and handling charges. In a perfect market a uniform price p r e v a i l s . Since most markets (groups of traders) are scat-tered over a considerable area of space, the "uni-form" price i n a perfect market i s plus or minus transportation and handling from one geographical point to another. This t r a d i t i o n a l test of uni-formity i n space i s supplemented i n t h i s appendix by a corresponding test of uniformity i n time (plus or minus storage and handling costs from one period of time to another while basic supply and demand remain unchanged). F i n a l l y , a t h i r d test of market perfection i s offered - the uniformity of prices' for d i f f e r e n t grades of a product, or uniformity i n form (plus or minus conversion (processing) or pro-duction costs from or between d i f f e r e n t grades).^ Shepherd, G. S., Marketing Farm Products (Iowa State College Press) 1949. P« 40?. -61--62-With the above conditions i n mind some interpretations may be derived from prices of livestock i n B r i t i s h Columbia and other parts of Canada. The weighted average price of cat-t l e sold at public stockyards ranged from a low i n 1933 of $3 per hundredweight to a high i n 1951 of $28.22 (Table 11). Since 1951 c a t t l e prices have f a l l e n 40 to 50 per cent. Dur-ing the period of r i s i n g prices, marketings and slaughterings have fluctuated but have had an upward trend. From 1940-1953 marketings were two to three times as large as i n 1932. Nevertheless, prices have ris e n i n the face of these increased supplies. The r i s i n g prices have resulted from a growing de-mand and a r i s i n g price l e v e l of a l l commodities. Prices at Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Chicago Seasonal Price Variation; An analysis was made of the average monthly prices of various grades of ca t t l e at Calgary for 1946 to 1954 (Refer to Figure 16 and 17). Highest prices generally appeared i n June, July and August for the medium to choice classes of animals; i n some instances prices were up i n May and also i n December. However, when trend i s removed the December peaks are usually removed. Lowest prices occur-red most often from January to March and from October to Nov-ember. The highest prices for common animals occurred most frequently i n May and June but occasionally they were highest i n A p r i l , July or August. The pattern of prices for stockers and feeders i s quite varied, but when the average for a l l the -65-years i s corrected f o r trend, October, March, A p r i l , May and occasionally July are the low price months. Variations occur in a l l the above patterns when prices show considerable trend. In 1952 and 1953 prices were highest from January to Febru-ary but the l e v e l of prices was f a l l i n g during these years (Refer to Figure 7 - 14). Price Differences Between Markets; Cattle price d i f f e r -ences between the Calgary and Vancouver markets vary from month to month. For the period studied, 1951-1953, there were about as many months when the price at Vancouver was below the price at Calgary as there was with the price above. There seems to be a greater number of instances of higher prices at Calgary f o r common types of animals of a l l classes than for the better grades. The number of price quotations for choice animals at Vancouver were too few to be of any signi f i c a n c e . The price l i s t s for 1953 show only two quotations with price differences between the two markets f o r steers and heifers of more than $1.60; only 26 out of 119 reports had more than $1 difference and there were no reports of more than $2 difference. Good cows and b u l l s were higher at Vancouver on a l l reports for 1953 and in one month the difference was $2.02. Stocker and feeder steers were higher at Calgary with the exception of one month but there was only one quotation with a difference of more than $2. The year 1952 was exceptional for the beef industry and during March some rather large inter-market price differences -66-occurred. Choice steers at Vancouver were as much as $6.80 per hundredweight above the Calgary price and similar s i t u a -tions existed f o r other types as well.. Almost a t h i r d of the quotation differences on a l l classes by months fo r the year were in excess of $2 and about 10 per cent were over $3. Price differences exhibited f o r 1951 resembled those for 1953. For a l l classes of steers other than choice there were 17 quotations out of 67 with differences of more than $1, eight above $1.50 and three between $2 and $3. Stockers and feeders, common heifers and stocker calves had some larger differences, e s p e c i a l l y i n the l a s t few months of 1951. Good and medium heifers had only one quotation above the $2 d i f f e r -ence (Table 9). What do the above figures indicate? F i r s t of a l l i t would seem that when the markets are not passing through phases of considerable price adjustments the price d i f f e r -ences between Calgary and Vancouver seldom exceed $2 per hun-dredweight and i n the majority of months i t i s less than $1. Present freight rates between Calgary and Vancouver are .92 cents per hundredweight (Figure 21), and the stockyard charges and s e l l i n g fees are about $2.50 per head or one-quarter cent per pound on a thousand pound steer. The shrink on animals shipped between the two markets would l i k e l y be about 4 per cent, 1 or 40 pounds per 1,000 pound animal. This would amount Morrison, F. B., Feeds and Feeding, New York, Morrison, 1954 (21 ed.) p. 847--67-TABLE 9 LIVESTOCK PRICE DIFFERENCES PER CWT., 1951-1953 (VANCOUVER MINUS CALGARY) Year and month Steers up to 1,000 l b s .  Good Medium Common Good Cows Steers over 1,000 l b s .  Medium Common Good mi January- 1.18 0.85 -0.92 1.31 February -0.62 -1.26 -O.36 -0.61 March 0.22 -0.04 -O.52 — A p r i l 0.28 -0.56 -0.57 1.13 May -0.52 -1.51 -0.79 -0.40 June 0.18 -0.31 -0.66 -0.50 July -1.13 -0.83 0.01 -1.68 August -1.19 -1.39 -1.02 -1.43 September 0.44 0.16 -0.52 0.54 October 0.54 0.25 0.28 0.55 November -0.32 O.09 0.31 0.11 December 0.81 0.85 0.49 0.74 1952 January 0.30 -0.19 -3.54 0.33 February 0.68 0.51 -1.58 March 5.76 5.40 2.93 6.15 A p r i l - -May -0.82 -1.09 -0.62 -1.64 June -0.88 -0.75 -0.6T -1 ?07 July -1.55 -0.55 -1.62 -O.50 August 0.06 -0.33 0.15 0.85 September -O.30 -1.17 -1.61 -0.77 October -0.08 -1.07 -0.91 -1.84 November -O.70 -1.12 -0.60 -2.19 December -0.36 -0.47 -0.72 -0.11 1951 January 0.58 -0.-03 -O.23 0.38 February -0.15 -0.54 -2.59 0.39 March 0.05 • -0.42 -0.42 0.14 A p r i l -0.07 0.55 -1.92 0.27 May 0.57 - -0.82 0.24 June -1.30 -1.11 -0.87 -0.89 July 0.46 -0.06 0.23 0.46 August -0.88 -0.90 -2.65 -0.72 September -0.19 0.42 -0.11 -0.47 October 0.25 0.41 -0.98 0.46 November -0.79 -1.65 -1.37 -0.82 December -0.06 -1.53 -2.17 -0.34 0.17 -0.54 0.25 -1.10 0.67 0.44 0.02 0.61 -0.84 -0.27 0.37 - 0.61 - 0.06 0.51 0.34 0.41 -1.30 - 0.98 -1.29 - 0 . 57 1.11 0.18 -0.50 2.02 0.37 1.48 1.84 0.29 O.58 1.80 0.95 1.03 1.51 -0.14 _ 0.26 - 1.38 -1.23 5.32 2.74 5.33 5.59 - 2.45 -1.47 -1.43 -0.24 0.76 - 0.99 -1.91 - 0.25 0.37 0.82 -0.73 -0.39 -1.28 -0.73 -I.69 -0.09 0.35 -2.04 -0.12 0.95 0.33 -1.41 0.50 0.21 1.02 0.98 -0.29 - -0.09 -0.04 - -0.55 0.54 -1.36 -0.88 - - 0.13 -1.11 -0.89 -1.11 0.40 0.24 0.19 -1.46 -1.00 0.49 -0.11 0.28 -1.06 0.54 -0.92 0.56 -1.72 -0.45 0.29 -1.18 -1.85 Sources: 1. The Livestock and Meat Trade Reports, (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) 1951-1953, Vol. 32-34. -68-TABLE 9 (Continued) LIVESTOCK PRICE DIFFERENCES PER CWT., 1951-1953 (VANCOUVER MINUS CALGARY) Year Heifers Stocker and and feeder steers Calves month Good Medium Common Good Common stockers 1?53 $ 1.06 $ $ $ $ $ January 0.50 -0.08 - 0.04 -9-44 February 0.39 -0.07 0.50 -1.56 -1.42 -1.58 March 0.16 -0.25 0.36 -0.41 -1.22 0.92 A p r i l 0.38 0.24 0.41 - -0.01 2.42 May -0.15 -0.60 -0.74 -1.22 -1.23 2.28 June 0.74 -0.02 -0.46 -0.34 -0.63 -3.77 July -0.04 -0.26 0.96 - -0.89 4.56 August -1.31 -0.90 0.14 -1.01 -0.80 -1.80 September 0.33 0.26 O.36 -1.24 -2.24 5.87 October - -0.57 -0.68 -1.67 -1.52 -O.13 November -0.14 -0.04 -0.20 -0.85 -O.56 1 .0.25 December -0.18 -O.32 0.04 -1.41 -1.69 -0.23 1952 January -0.14 -0.30 -0.84 0.68 -0.80 -2.62 February - -0.80 -2.19 - 1.36 -9.35 March 2.32 3.40 2.08 2.14 -1.66 -4.90 A p r i l 3.94 2.56 2.04 1.59 -2.30 -1.41 May -1.75 -1.81 -0.89 2.11 - -June -0.77 -0.26 -1.70 -1.01 -1.99 July -1.89 -2.36 -2.55 - -0.35 -1.37 August -0.73 0.16 -1.58 -1.47 -3.27 -5.44 September -0.44 -1.31 -1.13 -1.90 -2.20 -2.41 October -1.20 -1.45 -0.89 -2.40 -3.26 -1.80 November 0.60 -0.68 -2.54 -2.96 -2.62 -3.45 December 0.06 0.09 -0.62 -2.05 -1.97 -2.12 1951 -January 0.49 0.26 -0.03 0.17 -1.02 -1.44 February -0.55 -1.16 -1.77 - -2.26 -7.41 March -0.46 -0.55 -1.96 - -3.67 -9.11 A p r i l - -1.02 -1.31 -1.01 -0.77 -3.53 May 0.27 0.06 -0.73 0.89 -1.43 -0.55 June -1.74 -1.69 -0.94 -2.16 -0.83 -1.18 -4.46 July - -0.93 -2.28 -1.66 -4.38 August -1.02 -1.24 -1-99 - -2.61 -8.18 September -2.31 -1.89 -2.35 0.37 -3.14 -6.91 October 0.18 0.16 -2.40 -0.66 -5.66 -7.36 November -0.89 -1.25 -2.81 -0.63 -1.44 - O.69 -6.34 December -0.37 -1.49 -3.60 -1.30 -3.88 Sources: The Livestock and Meat Trade Reports, (Ottawa, De-partment of Agriculture) 1951-1953, Vol. 32-34. -69-to about three-quarters of a cent per pound on the 1,000 giv-ing a possible t o t a l added cost of $1.92 per hundredweight to move the animals from one market to the other and the d i f f e r -ence i n price would have to be somewhat above this l e v e l to be worth the added trouble. There does not appear to be many instances when the two markets are out of l i n e i n p r i c i n g or that money could be made by market transfers. However, th i s does not necessarily mean that there are no market imperfections. Vancouver, for the most part i s a d e f i c i t area with respect to beef production. Vancouver prices should not f a l l below Calgary prices unless there i s a surplus of supply over demand i n Vancouver, r e l a t i v e to Cal-gary. Since much of the B r i t i s h Columbia beef marketed i n Van-couver comes from i n t e r i o r points, i t i s conceivable that Van-couver prices should never be below those of Calgary. Ranchers i n the i n t e r i o r with complete market knowledge would ship t h e i r animals to Calgary as soon as pressure was exerted at Vancouver and they could do so f o r l i t t l e , i f any, more than the costs of shipping to Vancouver. Thus, to the extent that i n t e r i o r cattle shipments cause Vancouver prices to f a l l below Calgary prices by more than the difference i n f r e i g h t from the centre of o r i g i n to each market, imperfections e x i s t . 1 •*• Note; - Freight, rate, on livestock from Kamloops to Van-couver i s about 55 cents per hundredweight* from Kamloops to Calgary the rate i s 79 cents. Freight rates are on a mileage basis and w i l l be about the same for equal distances to Van-couver or to Calgary. -70-Cattle originating at the coast would have to meet the added costs of about $1.92 per hundredweight as previously indicated and should not move to Calgary unless the differences i n p r i -ces are more than enough to cover this charge. There i s a p o s s i b i l i t y too that some price d i f f e r -ences may have been obscured by the use of monthly average prices. Thus a more detailed analysis was made of prices at Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Chicago using weekly prices of beef steers up to i,000 pounds f o r the year 1953- This method has l i m i t a t i o n s since i t presents the case f o r only one type of cattle when another type might have given d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s . The same reasoning may.be applied to the r e s u l t s of t h i s test as has been given above. The monthly average prices.of good steers up to 1,000 pounds for 1953 gave no instances of Vancouver-Calgary price differences of more than $1.20. Using weekly data there were 10 reports out of 45 i n which the price difference ex-ceeded $1.20, 6 above $1.50 and 2 above $2. While the d i f f e r -ence i n the results of the two analyses i s not great, i t does point up the p o s s i b i l i t y that price d i f f e r e n t i a l s were greater than were indicated i n the use of monthly average price data. A si m i l a r comparison was made of prices at Vancouver and Toronto (Table 10). There were only three weeks i n the year when Vancouver prices were quoted above Toronto prices and i n those instances a difference of $1.01 per hundredweight was the maximum. There were only s i x weeks of the year when -71-TABLE 10. DIFFERENCES IN PRICE PER CWT. FOR GOOD STEERS UP TO 1,000 LBS., BETWEEN VANCOUVER AND CALGARY VANCOUVER AND TORONTO, TORONTO AND CHICAGO, 1953 Date Vancouver Vancouver Toronto Date Vancouver Vancouver Toronto -Calgary -Toronto - Chicago -Calgary -Toronto -Chicago Jan. $ $ * $ July • $ $ $ 10 0.22 -0.75 '-2.30 4 -0.33 -0.27 -0.66 17 1.39 -1.15 -1.10 11 -1.06 -1.02 -1.35 24 1.64 -1.13 -0.44 18 -1.92 -2.44 -3-16 31 1.10 -0.65 0.60 25 -0.26 -1.23 -1.37 Feb. Aug. 7 1.05 -1.03 -0.24 1 -0.42 -1.57 -2.31 14 -0.78 -2.33 0.11 8 -1.18 -1.92 -1.74 21 -0.67 -2.59 0.34 15 -1.89 -2.24 -I.69 28 - - 0.63 22 -1.45 -1.60 -1.63 Mar. 29 -0.41 -0.84 -1.46 7 0.30 -1.32 0.87 Sept. 14 0.02 -1.69 0.69 5 -0.06 1.01 -1.66 21 -0.65 -1,32 0.37 12 -0.85 -0.73 -2.92 28 - - 0.43 19 0.73 -0.71 -2.20 Apr. 26 0.45 -0.27 -2.46 4 0.34 -0.66 -0.26 Oct. 11 0.75 -0.53 -0.09 3 2.09 -0.58 -1.57 18 -1.58 -2.51 -0.69 10 1.35 -0.44 -2.16 25 -0.46 -2.00 -0.07 17 0.62 -0.44 -2.61 May 24 0.05 -0.50 -2.55 2 -0.19 -1 • 07 -0.53 31 0.67 0.25 -2.77 9 -0.36 -0.80 -0.82 Nov. 16 -2.03 -2.49 -1.08 7 1.32 0.14 -2.81 23 -0.38 -0.50 -1.90 14 -0.05 -0.50 -2.52 30 -0.12 -0.26 -1.41 21 - - -0.97 June 28 -0.21 -0.21 -0.55 6 -0.63 -0.91 -0.04 Dec. 13 -0.09 -1.18 0.18 5 0.98 -1.37 -1.41 20 - -0.50 12 0.88 -1.25 -0.97 27 0.49 -1.22 -0.05 19 26 31 - - -0.57 -I.69 -1.55 Sources: Derived from Livestock Market Review 1953, (Ottawa. Department of Agriculture) p. 20, Livestock and Meat  Trade Reports, (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) I93T: g Toronto prices were more than $2 greater than the Vancouver price and the greatest difference was $2.59 per hundredweight.^" Since the United States i s almost the sole buyer of Canada's beef exports, i t i s worthwhile comparing prices with at least one important United States market. Even though exports are low at present, they have constituted as much as one-third of the t o t a l marketings. United States prices are a determining factor i n the Canadian beef price structure i n that they tend to provide a price f l o o r j as long as Canada produces a surplus over and above her own requirements the price of her beef must at times f a l l below the export market price by enough to cover the difference i n f r e i g h t , handling and t a r i f f i f the surplus i s to move into the export market. It has already been indicated that there i s an import duty of lg to 2^  cents per pound depending on the class and weight of animals entering the United States. Analysis of the relationship of prices at Chicago and Toronto for 1953 indicated that a change had taken place i n Canada's demand and supply p o s i t i o n with respect to beef. With a strong demand fo r beef at home, exports were down and there was l i t t l e need for much price difference between the Canadian and United States centres. However, the American 1 Note;- The author has been informed that some price differences between markets may be obscured i n the reporting of the o r i g i n a l data. Cattle are marketed for the most part on a l i v e weight basis and the grades are recorded on the basis of price bids of buyers, plus the a b i l i t y of the reporter to judge animals. This leaves open the p o s s i b i l i t y of animals being given a certain grade i n the report on the basis of price rather than quality. -73-market remains as a dominant factor i n the Canadian beef price structure since t h e i r c a t t l e population of over 94,000,000 dwarfs ours of under 10,000,000. If t h e i r supply i s low r e l a -t i v e to demand, t h e i r price w i l l r i s e a t t r a c t i n g imports from Canada and Canadian prices i n turn w i l l r i s e with the increase i n demand. Similarly, i f American prices f a l l , Canadian prices must f a l l or the huge supply south of the border would sta r t flowing north and soon force prices down on the r e l a t i v e l y small Canadian market. It i s f o r these reasons that there i s such a s i m i l -a r i t y noted between Toronto and Chicago price s . In most i n -stances the Chicago price of good steers up to 1,000 pounds i s higher than the Toronto price for t h i s class. In nine weeks of 1953, the price was less at Chicago than at Toronto; for twelve weeks of the year the Chicago price was greater by more than $2 per hundredweight and the highest recorded d i f -ference was |$3'16. N 0 r e a l l y extreme differences were noted (Table 10). The t a r i f f on steers up to 700 pounds i s 2\ cents per pound and over that weight 1^ cents. The fr e i g h t would amount to about g to % cent per pound. Allowing \ cent per pound buying•charge, the t o t a l costs of shipping from Toronto 1 Note;- Rachlis, M. i n the Economic A n a l i s t , Feb. 1953 indicates that f r e i g h t from Winnipeg to St. Paul i n 1951 was 66 cents per cwt,; buying charges, 25 cents; duty $1.50; or a t o t a l of $2.41 per hundred.lbs. -74-to Chicago would l i k e l y be between 2_j and 3_J cents per pound depending on the weight of the animal. If the Canadian d o l l a r was at a premium a further cost of transfer to the American market would have to be added. It appears then that there was very l i t t l e price incentive f o r transfers of cattle between Toronto and Chicago i n 1953• Comparison of Prices at Vancouver at Various Levels of Trade Comparisons of prices at various l e v e l s of trade must be carried out with caution unless an extremely thorough study can be made. Farm prices should not be compared with wholesale and r e t a i l prices unless factors such as waste, by-products, processing and many others can be considered. Although carcass meat i s the major factor i n determing the value of the l i v e animal, by-products play an important role as well. A quotation and i l l u s t r a t i o n from a Meat Industry l e t t e r best i l l u s t r a t e s the importance of by-products. But by-product returns vary considerably, not only as between i n d i v i d u a l animals but from on period of time to another. As a r e s u l t of t h i s v a r i a t i o n , the r e l a t i o n of l i v e c a t t l e prices to dressed beef prices d i f f e r s somewhat from time to time, as by-product values fluctuate upwards or downwards. When values are high, c a t t l e prices advance r e l a t i v e to beef prices due to competition i n the trade The most important by-product items of a beef animal are the hide and the edible f a t s or tallow. The hide which may constitute approximately 6 per cent of the weight of a 1,000 pound good butcher steer, has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been the most valuable by-product. -75-The y i e l d of tallow naturally varies with the type and degree of f i n i s h of the animal. It w i l l also vary according to the degree of defatting i n cur-rent demand i n the trade. However, approximately 5 to 6 per cent of the l i v e weight may be removed i n the form of edible f a t s during the slaughter and processing of a 1,000 pound steer. In addition to the hide and f a t s , the complete by-products yie l d s from a 1,000 pound good butcher steer are approximately as follows: Pounds Hide 60.0 Fats (edible) 55-0 Edible O f f a l : Liver 10.0 Heart 3.75 Tongue 4.25 T a i l 1.00 Sweetbreads .25 Kidneys 2.00 Process Meats: Headmeat .50 Cheekmeat 3.25 Lipmeat 1.00 Weasandmeat .50 Brawn .75 Tripe 16.00 Misc ft ft Includes casings, bones, tankage and other sub-stances used f o r pharmaceuticals.! From the above information i t i s apparent that any changes i n the price of hides or f a t s , w i l l have a marked effect on the r e l a t i v e price per pound of the l i v e animal to that of the wholesale carcass. The price of beef hides f e l l from 37 cents per pound i n March 1951 to a low of 8 cents i n A p r i l 1952 - a- drop of 29 cents per pound (Appendix Table 28). The In d u s t r i a l and Development Council of Meat Packers, A Letter on Canadian Livestock Products, Toronto, Apr.-May, 1952, p. 3. -76-On the basis of 60 pounds of hide on a 1,000 pound steer this amounts to a loss of #17.40 and means that the d i f f e r -ence must be made up either on other by-products or on the carcass i t s e l f . This could r e s u l t i n a greater spread between the producer and wholesale price s . Fluctuations i n the farm p r i c e need not necessarily be f u l l y r e f l e c t e d i n the price of r e t a i l cuts, even i f the carcass price f u l l y r e f l e c t s them. The r e t a i l e r who s e l l s meat must cover his costs such as labour, rent, arid deprecia-tion which are not l i k e l y to be f l u c t u a t i n g i n p r i c e . There-fore, the r e f l e c t e d price changes would only be on that part of the r e t a i l price, which represents actual meat costs. The above i s borne out by the price changes that have occurred. The monthly average price of good steers at Vancouver for 1951-1953 was compared with the wholesale price of beef carcasses from good steers for the same period. The farm price ranged from 48.7 per cent to 63«9 per cent of the carcass price, a range of 15«2 percentage points. The three-year average was 55.3 per cent and f o r 1953 i t was 54-8 per cent (Appendix Table 29). "Good to choice steers w i l l range from 56 to 59 per cent i n dressing percentage, and show steers, which are extra good type and of high condition, w i l l usually dress 59 to 63 per cent. Fat cows dress about 56 per cent, and canners from -77-35 to 43 per cent. Assuming 60 per cent dress,-a 1,000 pound steer w i l l give 600 pounds of carcass meat. If the car-cass price i s $35 per hundredweight i t w i l l bring $210. I f the farmer's price per hundredweight for the l i v e animal i s 55 per cent of the carcass price of $35 per hundredweight, he receives $19.25 per hundredweight or $192.50 for a 1,000 pound steer, leaving a margin to the buyer at the farm of $17.50. Using the same assumptions, a 50 per cent dressing percentage would give a carcass value of $175 and a loss on i t s sale price of $17.50. The dressing percentage and the price margin between the farmer and processor are thus very important to the trade. There are many factors which help to determine the relationship of the r e t a i l price of meat to the carcass price: the type of carcass and the a b i l i t y of the butcher help to determine the size and the number of cuts of meat; the si z e and number of cuts and t h e i r r e l a t i v e prices deter-mine the amount the r e t a i l e r receives; and the supply of var i -ous cuts of meat r e l a t i v e to the demand aff e c t s the r e t a i l e r ' s p r i c e . Consumers' incomes, tastes, and the prices of compet-ing products a l l a f f e c t the demand for r e t a i l cuts of meat from which the demand at other trade l e v e l s i s derived. There has been considerable change i n the prices of beef and c a t t l e from 1930-1953. (Table 11 and 12 show the Morrison, F. B., Feeds and Feeding, New York, Morrison, 1954 (21 ed.) p. 847. -78-TABLE l l INDEX OF LIVE CATTLE PRICES WITH CORRESPONDING INDEX FOR DEFLATED PRICES 1, 1930-1953 (1935-39 = 100) Yearly average prices of a l l c a t t l e , Canada Average price of good steers, Toronto Year cent s Prices deflated cent s /IB. Prices deflated / l b . Index cents Index Index cents Index 1930 6.35 153.0 5.62 135.7 _ 31 4.30 103.6 4-57 110.4 6.22 95-8 6.62 102.2 32 3.60 86.7 4.14 100.0 5.56 85-7 6.40 98.8 33 3.00 72.3 3-43 82.9 4.63 71.3. 5.30 81.8 34 3.10 .74.7 3.31 80.0 5.41 83.4 5.79 89". 4 35 3.70 89.2 3-91 94.4 6.46 99.5 6.84 105.6 36 3.45 83-1 3-56 86.0 5.41 83-4 5.59 86.3 37 4.15 100.0 3.84 92.8 7.40 114-0 6.86 105.9 38 4.35 104.8 4.26 102.9 6.27 96.6 6.15 94.9 39 5.10 122.9 5.14 124.2 6.89 106.2 6.95 107.3 1940 5.70 137.3 5.27 127.3 7.83 120.6 7.25 111.9 41 6.69 161.2 5.75 138.9 8.90 137.1 7-65 118.1 42 8.39 202.2 6.82 164-7 10.39 160.1 8.45 130.4 43 9.46 228.0 7.40 178.7 11.99 184.7 9.37 144.6 44 8.85 213.3 6.78 163.8 11.99 184-7 9.18 141.7 45 9.00 216.9 6.81 164-5 12.20 188.0 9.24 142.6 46 10.00 241.0 7.20 173.9 13.05 201.1 9.40 145.1 47 10.92 263.1 6.69 161.6 14.63 225.4 8.96 138.3 48 15.19 366.0 7.85 189-6 19.40 298.9 10.03 154.8 49 16.20 390.4 8.17 197-3 21.29 328.0 10.74 165-7 1950 21.17 510.1 10.02 242.0 26.72 411.7 12.65 195.2 51 28.22 680.0 11.70 282.6 33.49 516.0 13.94 215.1 52 20.00 481.9 8.85 213.8 25.85 398.3 11.44 176.5 53 15.30 368.6 6.93 167.4 20.11 310.0 9.11 140.6 Source: 1. Livestock and Animal Product S t a t i s t i c s 1952, (Ot-tawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) p. 20; 1943, p. 2 1939, p. 22. 2. Livestock Market Review 1953, (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) p. 7; 1949, p. 4; 1946, p. 6; 1941, p. 1936, p. 23; 1931, p. 17; 1930, p.17. 3 1 Prices deflated by the General Wholesale Price Index. -79-TABLE 12 INDEX OF PRICES OF BEEF CARCASSES AND RIB ROASTS AT VANCOUVER 1930-1952 WITH CORRESPONDING INDICES FOR DEFLATED PRICES 1 (1935-39 = 100) Beef carcass good steer (common quality) R e t a i l price r i b roast Year cents Index Prices deflated cents Prices deflated / l b . cen't s ': Index / l b . _naex cent s Index 1930 17.63 144.6 15 .6 127.9 _ 31 12.00 98.4 12.8 104.9 - - - -32 11.29 92.6 13.0 106.6 - - - -33 8.87 72.8 10.1 82.8 16.6 79.8 18.99 91.4 34 9.58 78.6 10.2 84.4 16.6 79.8 17.77 85.5 35 11.2 • 91.9 11.9 97.5 18.8 90.4 19.92 95.9 . 36 10.83 88.8 11.2 91.8 18.1 87.0 18.72 90.1 37 13.7 112.4 12.7 104.1 ' 21.8 104.8 20.22 97.3 38 12.04 98.8 11.8 96.7 21.8 104.8 21.37 102.8 39 13.2 108.3 13.3 109.0 23.5 113.0 23.69 114.0 1940 14.2 116.5 13.1 107.4 - - - -41 17.2 141.1 14.8 121.3 31.6 151.9 27.15 130.7 42 17.5 143.6 14.2 116.4 34.5 165.9 28.05 135.0 43 19.8 162.4 15.5 127.1 39.0 187.5 30.49 146.7 44 20.3 166.5 15.5 127.1 42.5 204.3 32.54 156.6 45 20.3 166.5 15.4 126.2 42.5 204.3 32.17 154.8 46 20.3 166.5 14.6 119-7 43.0 206.7 30.96 149.0 47 22.1 181.3 13.5 110.7 48.3 232.2 29.58 142.3 48 33.5 274.8 17.3 141.8 65.O 312.5 33.61 161.7 49 36.0 295.3 18.2 149-2 72.3 347.6 36.46 175.5 1950 45.3 371.6 21.4 175.4 88.5 425.5 41.90 201.6 51 56.6 464.3 23.6 193.4 104.8 503.8 43.63 210.0 52 45.8 375.7 20.3 166.4 94.7 455.3 41.90 201.6 1 Values deflated by the wholesale price index. Source: Livestock and Animal Product S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) 1930-1952. -80-relationship on the basis of 1935-1939 averages. The highest price i n a l l cases studied was i n 1951« Prices of a l l cat-t l e were up the most from the 1935-1939 l e v e l with prices of good steers at Toronto next, followed by the r e t a i l price of rib roasts. The wholesale beef carcass price had the small-est recorded increase. The prices for the various classes were deflated by the general wholesale price index i n an attempt to indicate price changes on a constant d o l l a r basis. The indices of de-fl a t e d prices (basis 1935-1939 = 100) were as follows: aver-age weighted price of a l l c a t t l e , peak year 1951 = 282.6 and and 1952 = 213.8; Toronto, good steers over 1,000 pounds, peak year 1951 * 215.1 and 1952 -176.5; Vancouver wholesale beef carcass, peak, 1951 - 193*4 and 1952 = 166.4j r e t a i l r i b roast - peak, 1951 s 210.0 and 1952 = 201.6. Peak prices as with the undeflated series were a l l i n 1951. Live Hog and Cattle Prices Prices of good steers compared with prices of l i v e hogs at Toronto indicate that hog prices are usually higher (Appendix Table 30). Except for 1950-1952 when c a t t l e prices were r e l a t i v e l y high, they have been consistently lower than hog prices. The lowest point i n the r a t i o of c a t t l e to hog prices was 62.91 per cent i n 1934. Since that year c a t t l e prices have r i s e n r e l a t i v e to hog prices. The f a c t that hogs have a higher dressing percentage than c a t t l e probably -81-accounts for a considerable part of the difference i n pri c e s . Wholesale carcass prices give a di f f e r e n t r e l a t i o n -ship. Beef carcass prices were higher i n more years than pork, being higher i n 1931-1933, 1940, and for a l l years from 1943-1952 i n c l u s i v e , except for 1947 (Figure 15). Costs Cost Indices As i n any other enterprise,costs are as important i n beef production as are outputs and revenues. Prices of feeds i n Western Canada have r i s e n continuously since 1939 and i n 1952 they were 244*2 per cent of the average price f or 1935-1939* Individual feed prices based on l o c a l records 1 indicate a s l i g h t l y smaller change. The index f o r the prices of mixed hay was 220.5 i n 1952 but i t dropped to 147.9 i n 1953 (b asis 1935-1939 average prices = 100). The peak year for ground barley prices was 1951 with an index of 208.6 -by 1953 t h i s had dropped to 184*0 (Appendix Table 2l). Prices of a l l c a t t l e on the other hand had a peak index of 680 i n 1951 which f e l l to 368.6 during 1953 (Table l l ) . Indices of other cost items show s i m i l a r changes from 1930-1952. In 1952 farm machinery costs were up to 196.2 per cent of the 1935-1939 average, building materials 332.4 per cent, f e r t i l i z e r 163-1, tax and int e r e s t rates 169, Surrey Co-operative Association, Cloverdale, B r i t i s h Columbia. -82-farm wage rates 457«9« Farm wage rates have risen more than any other factor and tend to offset part of the l i v e s t o c k industry's seemingly favourable p o s i t i o n . I t i s of consider-able significance to note that feed grain, a major cost item, especially for feed l o t operations, has had less than two-thirds the price r i s e of l i v e s t o c k . It would appear that cost-price relationships i n the industry are more favourable to the producer than i n the 1935-1939 period (Appendix Table 32). Land Costs One guide f o r determining land costs f o r grazing purposes i s the grazing fees charged f o r Crown Lands. From 1919-1949 grazing fees f o r c a t t l e were 5 cents per head per month; in 1950, 16 cents; 1951, 22 cents; 1953, 18 cents; 1954, 14 cents. 1 This scale of fees i s based on the yearly weighted average price of t o t a l cattle sales at Vancouver stockyards. The above rates indicate an increase i n 1951 of 440 per cent over 1949 rates. Under the amended Grazing Regulations 1953 rates were 36O per cent, and 1954 rates were 280 per cent of 1949* It has been calcul a t e d that good grass-lands may carry one animal for one month on about two acres 2 of ground. Thus, f i v e months grazing would require ten acres 1 Pendray, W. C , (Forest Service, Grazing Div i s i o n , Vic-t o r i a , B r i t i s h Columbia) l e t t e r to the author, June 11, 1954. Derived from information obtained from the O f f i c e of the Surveyor of Taxes, V i c t o r i a , B r i t i s h Columbia. -83-per animal. At the 1954 rate of 14 cents per head per month or 70 cents per season th i s amounts to a 7-cent-per-acre rate on land. Capitalized at 5 per cent t h i s gives a value of $1.40 per acre. The Department of Finance, of the Province of B r i t i s h Columbia, has established values for range lands on the basis of long term values and returns of livestock f o r taxation purposes. Lands are typed and c l a s s i f i e d f o r carrying capa-c i t y and values are then established by the use of recorded returns for 1935-1948. Net returns are taken as 15 per cent of the gross and c a p i t a l i z e d at 4 per cent. On t h i s basis the value of land capable of supporting one animal for one month was found to be $5.50. This i s based on conservative estimates and should be increased to meet increased market values of animals since 1948.^ However, even on this basis i t would seem that grazing fees charged were quite reasonable. Feed Supplies and Prices The price of feed has a considerable bearing on the extent of feeding operations. Feed supplies r e l a t i v e to de-mand determine feed p r i c e s . Grain supplies i n terms of a n i -2 mal units have fluctuated over the period 1930-1953 from .52 1 Unpublished report from the Department of Finance, Vic-t o r i a , B r i t i s h Columbia. 2 Equivalent i n consumption of grain of one average milk cow i n a year,i*e., weight - horses 1.14, milk cows 1.0, other c a t t l e .51, hogs .87, sheep .04, poultry .045» -84-tons i n 1937 - 1938 to a high of 1.40 for 1952-1953 and pre-liminary figures indicate a further increase f o r 1953-1954. There have been increases each year since the 1949-1950 per-iod. On the basis of the 1936-1937 to 1940-1941.average, the 1952-1953 supplies were up by 219 per cent. Net supplies of feed grains have been somewhat lower. They were down to .53 tons per animal unit i n 1941-1942j they were up to 1.02 i n 1951-1952 and estimated at 1.08 for 1953-1954. The 1935-1939 average was .53 tons per animal unit i n d i c a t i n g that supplies have doubled since that time. There has been less f l u c t u a t i o n i n feed consumed; average consump-ti o n per animal unit was .53 tons i n 1935-1939* peak consump-tion was .91 tons i n 1951-1952. During 1952-1953 consumption f e l l to .80 tons per animal unit (Appendix Table 33). There i s a notable s i m i l a r i t y between the changes in the average dressed weights of livestock and changes i n the amount of grain consumed per animal unit. An increase i n dressed weight seems to be associated with increased grain consumption per animal unit. There'is also a s i m i l a r i t y be-tween changes i n gross grain supplies and consumption per ani-mal unit; when supplies were large, consumption increased. The one instance when thi s was not true came in 1952 when live-stock prices dropped about one-third from 1951 p r i c e s . It i s possible that there i s some causal r e l a t i o n -ship between supplies of grain and the amount consumed per animal unit. Increased feed supplies usually r e s u l t i n lower -85-p r i c e s a n d an incentive to feed more. It also increases the amount of feeding on the farms producing the grain as they use animals as a means of converting t h e i r feed into cash* However, i t may be that var i a t i o n s i n c a t t l e prices and not feed supplies i s the major cause of variatio n s i n feed con-sumption. In 1952 when c a t t l e prices f e l l there was a f a i r l y large drop i n feed consumption i n spite of continued large feed supplies. Feed supplies have increased at a faster rate than consumption since 1949-1950. Since feed i s a major cost item i n a feeder enter-prise a feed l i v e s t o c k r a t i o has been constructed to show the relationships involved. The average annual price of good steers up to 1,000 pounds at Calgary was used i n the r a t i o s . A beef-hay r a t i o was constructed to indicate the amount of hay in tons that could be purchased with 100 pounds of beef. The average was .47 tons for the period 1930.-1953 and the peak was .89 tons i n 1951, while i n 1953 i t was .69 tons, an i n -crease of .10 tons over 1952. A beef-barley r a t i o was con-structed using the same price sources as i n the beef-hay r a t i o . The average f o r the period was 100 pounds of beef to 5.36 hun-dredweight of barley. The peak r a t i o was 9.56 i n 1951; i t dropped to 6.30 by 1953. In years when the industry has been most prosperous the r a t i o of beef to feed has been highest; however, feedlot operators cannot depend on the r a t i o alone to indicate the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of the industry. In most cases a feeder's margin i s necessary and i f prices were declining, -86-even though high r e l a t i v e to feed, the margin would be unattain-able and losses could r e s u l t . Many operators experienced t h i s condition i n 1952 and 1953 when c a t t l e prices dropped from previous high l e v e l s (Table 13)• TABLE 13 RATIO OF PRICE OF BEEF 1 TO PRICE OF BARLEY AND MIXED HAY Year Beef-barley r a t i o 2 Beef-mixed hay r a t i o ^ cwt. tons 1930 4.04 • 32 31 3.27 .22 32 2.75 .22 33 2.50 -34 2.56 -35 3.30 .27 36 2.65 .20 37 3.02 .36 38 3.16 .31 39 4-61 .32 1940 5.01 • 42 41 5.38 • 56 42 6.47 .55 43 7.18 .48 44 6.96 • 43 45 6.98 • 44 46 7.32 .46 47 7-37 • 53 48 6.46 .65 49 6.53 • 59 1950 7.89 .82 51 9.56 •89 52 7.35 •59 53. 6.30 .69 Average 5.36 •47 Beef price refers to price of good steers up to 1,000 pounds at Calgary. 2 The number of bushels of barley that could be purchased with 100 pounds of beef. 3 The number of tons of hay that could be purchased with 100 pounds of beef. Sources: 1. Feed prices taken from records owned by the Surrey Cooperative Association, Cloverdale, B r i t i s h Columbia. - 8 7 -Feeder Costs In any program of c a t t l e fattening the p r o f i t or loss may be made i n the purchase of the feeder and/or the sale of the fi n i s h e d animal. If too high a price i s paid for the feeder, i t may not be possible to obtain the neces-sary margin to make a p r o f i t on the sale. Cattle feeding, therefore, requires not only a good liv e s t o c k manager but a man capable of making wise purchases at the right time and price and knowing what type of animal to have and when to have i t ready f o r the market i n order to receive the highest possible p r i c e . A study was made of the prices of good stocker and feeder steers and good steers up to 1 , 0 0 0 pounds on the Cal-gary market. Price differences were taken with varying lengths of feeding time of s i x to nine months. For the per-iod 1 9 3 0 - 1 9 5 4 the feeder's margin on c a t t l e bought i n Octo-ber was greatest when f i n i s h e d c a t t l e were sold eight months l a t e r ; the next best on the average were the eighteen and nine month periods, with s i x months the poorest (Table 14). Feeder margins between October purchases and June sales ranged from a high of $ 9 . 5 8 to a low of minus $ 9 . 1 3 ; there were only two years when the June price per hundred-weight of good steers was less than the previous October's feeder p r i c e . A study of monthly prices for i n d i v i d u a l years indicates that from 1 9 3 5 - 1 9 5 0 there was a feeder's margin on -88-TABLE 14 MARGINS BETWEEN PRICES AT CALGARY OF STOCKERS AND FEEDERS IN OCTOBER AND GOOD STEERS (UP TO 1,000 LBS.) AT VARIOUS LENGTHS OF TIME AFTER OCTOBER 1930- 19541 Year of Six Seveh -Eight Nine Eighteen Purchase months months months months months 1930 $ 0.59 $ 0.59 $ 0.39 $ 0.43 $ 0.40 31 1.35 1.54 1.48 0.76 -0.15 32 0.56 1.34 1.28 I.29 1.55 33 2.20 2.15 2.15 1.59 4.04 34 4.03 4.12 3.78 2.88 2.24 35 0.84 0.61 0.75 0.89 4.04 36 4.55 5.07 4.89 4.22 2.56 37 1.37 1.65 2.02 1.49 2.41 38 2.60 2.14 2.10 2.10 2.61 39 0.86 1.04 1.45 1.06 2.47 1940 1.97 1.65 1.55 2.19 3.50 41 2.27 2.83 4.31 2.64 3.92 42 2.28 2.33 2.47 2.63 2.03 43 1.29 1.54 1.99 2.03 1.57 44 2.07 2.54 2.97 2.67 2.67 45 2.38 2.14 3.48 3.28 4.69 46 3.44 4.02 4.09 2.91 5.45 47 3.70 4-96 7.41 7-71 7.93 48 1.81 2.00 2.40 2.33 6.41 49 7.22 8.17 9.58 11.55 14-61 1950 5.68 5.29 7.26 6.15 -3.84 51 -9-86 -10.87 -9.13 -8.69 -14.16 52 -0.10 O.32 -0.06 -0.36 - L 50 53 1.10 2.08 2.54 3.94 Average margin 1.84 2.05 2.55 2.40 2.41 1 Prices are those quoted for Calgary as avera* je for the month. Sources: Monthly B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s . (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) 1930-1940, Quarterly B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1941-1954. -89-a l l good feeders, i f purchased, fed, and sold eight months l a t e r as good steersj the only exception was i n 1938. The r e l a t i v e l y high price of feeders i n 1951 with the subsequent drop i n prices of a l l c a t t l e i n 1952 resulted i n negative price margins. Negative margins continued through 1953 and not u n t i l March of 1954 did the feeders margin reappear (Figure 20). A study was made also of price margins i f feeders were purchased i n October and held for eighteen months. This would necessitate a feeding program for two winters and one summer with the sale of f i n i s h e d animals i n A p r i l . Un-der t h i s plan a positive margin would have been re a l i z e d on a l l October feeders bought from 1932-1949. The margin on feeders bought i n October 1949 and sold eighteen months l a t e r i n A p r i l 1951 was $14.61. However, feeders bought i n Octo-ber of 1950 or 1951 and fed t h i s way would have sold at less per hundredweight than the o r i g i n a l purchase pri c e . Many more examples could be i l l u s t r a t e d by v a r i a -tions of the time between purchase of feeders and sale of the f i n i s h e d animal. For example feeders were low i n price i n August and September i n twelve years of the 1930-1953 period and i t would have been of advantage to have made pur-chases e a r l i e r i n those years. The long fed steers could have been held to May or J une. By holding them to June and feeding f o r twenty months rather than eighteen, the average price margin for the 23-year period increases from $2.41 to -92-$3.18 or an average gain of $.77 per hundred pounds. In some years i t would have paid to shorten the fattening per-iod and i n others to lengthen i t . Planned buying, s e l l i n g and feeding programs must be coordinated to obtain the great-est o v e r a l l p r o f i t s from feedlot operations. Transportation and Marketing Costs Method of Transport; The two chief methods of transport-ing l i vestock are by r a i l and truck. In some parts of B r i t -ish Columbia some t r a i l i n g of animals i s s t i l l necessary. Water transport i s also u t i l i z e d i n places such as the Paci-f i c G reat Eastern Railway connection from Squamish to Van-couver and i n overseas shipping. Transport by truck i s especially important i n mov-ing animals from the farm, feed l o t , or ranch to public stockyards, dir e c t to packing plants or di r e c t on export, known as the primary movement. R a i l services are used for most of the secondary movement or r e d i s t r i b u t i o n from public stockyards and plants. It i s rather hard to compare truck rates with r a i l rates even when they are av a i l a b l e . Trucks perform some ser-vices not performed by ra i l r o a d s such as pickup at the farm and direct d elivery. Often too, the trucks are owned by the ranchers. Truck transport i s often impractical i n B r i t i s h Columbia due to road and weather conditions. -93-Railway Freight Rates; Freight rates have advanced considerably since 1948. Livestock shipping rates were i n -creased by December 1950 to "... about 62 per cent i n excess of rates applicable i n the spring of 1 9 4 8 . R a t e s from Calgary to Vancouver are indicated on the map. (Figure 21). From Calgary to Vancouver the rate i s approximately 92 cents per hundred as against the 1950 rate of 67 cents, having been increased three times by 17, 9, and 7 per cent respec-t i v e l y . Rates from Kamloops to Vancouver rose from about 40 cents to 55 cents per hundredweight. Other rates varied i n the same manner. Rates were also recorded from points serviced by the P a c i f i c Great Eastern Railway. From Wil-liams Lake to Vancouver i t was 61 cents per 100 pounds, from Quesnel 68 cents and from L i l l o o e t 42 cents. Rates are higher on meat shipped than on l i v e a ni-mals. This i s due mainly to the r e f r i g e r a t i o n service given. Rates were $1.75 per hundredweight from Calgary or Edmonton to Vancouver on carload l o t s weighing about 20,000 pounds. Marketing Costs; Marketing costs are involved i n a dire c t manner when livestock are shipped to the stockyards. When animals are bought and shipped dir e c t to packers these costs are absorbed i n the price paid or received. Over half of the beef animals marketed i n B r i t i s h Columbia are handled 1 Carmichael, J. S., and Packham, T. S., Livestock Mar-keting i n Western Canada (Regina, Department of Cooperation and Cooperative Development) p. 67. -95-by the Cooperative but about 85 per cent of t h i s i s handled by d i r e c t s a l e . A charge i s made f o r services given at the yard when animals pass through or are sold there. Yard fees are 75 cents per head f o r animals over 400 pounds and 55 cents for animals under 400 pounds. S e l l i n g fees by auction are $1.50 per head over 400 pounds and 90 cents per head under 400 pounds. For regular s e l l i n g the rates are $1.25 and 75 cents respectively. At the yard the animals are fed, watered, sold, weighed and a settlement arranged. If feed must be given, an extra charge i s made for the amount supplied by the yards. Relative Position of the Livestock Industry Comparisons made of p r i c e indices at the wholesale l e v e l reveal that the prices for l i v e s t o c k and meat have risen more since 1935-1939 than other product prices. In 1953 the index of wholesale prices of livestock was 288.1 (basis 1935-1939 • 100). The index for fresh meat prices i n 1953 was 292.5, a l l animal product prices 241.7, vegetable products 199-0 and grains 201.0. The index of wholesale prices was 220.7 and a l l farm products was 241.7, while the consumer price index stood at 185.6. Most of the farm product price l e v e l s have dropped since 1951 (Appendix Table34). As previously indicated, the index of costs of farm machinery, f e r t i l i z e r , t a x e s and i n t e r e s t rates, and gasoline, o i l and grease were a l l below the 200 l e v e l i n 1952. Building - 9 6 -materials were up to 332, feed 244, and farm wage rates were highest at 457«9« The index of l o c a l feed prices was lower than the Western Canada feed index. Prices of a l l c a t t l e on the other hand had a peak index of 680 i n 1951 and were down to 481.9 i n 1952. Further c a t t l e price declines i n 1953 brought the index to 368.6 (Table l l ) . The index for the average price of good steers at Toronto reached a peak of 516 i n 1951 and dropped to 310 by 1953- It appears that cattle prices have ris e n more since the 1935-1939 period than other farm products and also that they have r i s e n more than most of the major cost factors involved i n the industry. While li v e s t o c k and meat pri c e s have ris e n more than most other items as indicated above, the significance of t h i s can only be r e a l i z e d by knowing the r e l a t i v e l e v e l of prices at the time of the index base period. Cattle prices were at a very low l e v e l during 1935-1939 and perhaps were below normal r e l a t i v e to other farm product prices and to items indexed as costs. This could mean that although livestock prices have r i s e n more since the base period, than most cost items, the industry could s t i l l be at or below the l e v e l of other industries with respect to rates of return. CHAPTER V.: ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS The Market f o r Beef i n B r i t i s h Columbia The Demand i n B r i t i s h Columbia The market or demand for beef i n B r i t i s h Columbia depends upon the population, the l e v e l of r e a l income, con-sumer preferences and supplies of substitutes. The market for B r i t i s h Columbia beef depends also on supplies of beef r e l a t i v e to the demand i n the rest of Canada and i n the United States. At present beef production i n B r i t i s h Columbia sup-p l i e s less than one-half of the beef consumed i n the Province. With present population growth t h i s proportion w i l l decline unless production i s greatly increased. During 1952 and 1953 B r i t i s h Columbia's population increased at the average rate of 2.75 per cent per year. Assuming future increases occur at a r e l a t i v e l y moderate rate of 2.5 per cent, the population would be increasing by more than 30,000 persons per year. This would mean an additional demand for beef of over 1,800,000 pounds or 3,600 animals. (Assuming 60 pounds per capita.con-sumption and dressed weight of animals at 500 pounds). It i s possible also that the demand for meat w i l l increase due to increased incomes. This would result i n more -98--99-beef consumption per capita. If income growth i s maintained at the rate of two per cent per annum and a r e l a t i v e l y con-stant per cent of income i s spent for meat, between two and three pounds ad d i t i o n a l meat per person would be required each year and at l e a s t one pound of t h i s would be beef. On the basis of B r i t i s h Columbia's present population t h i s would mean an additional 1.25 m i l l i o n pounds of beef or about 2,000 animals per year. Since meat consumption i n Canada (or B r i t i s h Col-umbia) i s low r e l a t i v e to that of other meat-producing coun-t r i e s such as the United States i t may be possible to i n -crease the per capita consumption. United States beef con-sumption i n 1953 was 76.6 pounds per capita and estimates f o r 1954 are placed at 79 pounds, compared to 59*1 and estimates of 65 pounds f o r the same years i n Canada. One add i t i o n a l pound per capita i n B r i t i s h Columbia would require 2,000 head of additional animals or 20,000 head f o r ten added pounds per capita consumption. It would seem that conservative estimates of future needs f o r beef i n B r i t i s h Columbia could be placed at be-tween 5,000 and 7,000 additional animals per year. This i s equivalent to between 12 and 15 per cent of the present mar-ketings. Lower prices, advertising or shortage of substitute products could greatly increase these estimates. The l o c a l demand si t u a t i o n appears to be favourable from the producer's 100-viewpoint. However, prices are determined by the supply and demand conditions i n a l l Canada and the United States and not on l o c a l conditions alone. The Demand for Beef i n Canada What i s the demand s i t u a t i o n outside of B r i t i s h Columbia with respect to beef? Canada's population expanded i n 1952 and 1953 at an average rate of 2.7 per cent per year. With the i n d u s t r i a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s present i n Canada, the i n -crease i n population at t h i s rate up to 20 to 30 m i l l i o n persons can be reasonably anticipated. That i s to say, i t would seem safe to estimate that population would continue to grow by at l e a s t 2 per cent or about 300,000 people per year. Assuming per capita consumption of beef to be 60 pounds, this means that there would be a demand f o r an additional 18 million.pounds or about 36,000 head of c a t t l e i n Canada per year. Assuming 2 per cent increase i n incomes per year and a f a i r l y constant per cent of incomes spent for beef, there i s the basis for further increases i n consumption. If there was an increase i n consumption of one pound per capita due to r i s i n g incomes, t h i s would mean that about 15 m i l l i o n more pounds of beef would be required by the present population. This i s equivalent to about 30,000 animals. Further increases i n demand could be obtained by advertising campaigns directed to bring meat consumption up -101-to or beyond the l e v e l of that i n the United States (1953 -t o t a l red meat consumption per capita i n the United States was 156 pounds, i n Canada 140.1 pounds). These increases would be i n addition to those caused by increasing incomes. Each ad d i t i o n a l pound per capita consumed i s equal to over 15,000,000 pounds of beef. In 1953 consumption of beef was 59«1 pounds or over 14 pounds more than i n 1952 and thi s amounted to an additional 200 m i l l i o n pounds or more than 400,000 head. This was la r g e l y due to changes i n the r e l a -t i v e prices of beef to pork. Campaigns to increase t o t a l meat consumption might help to off s e t reductions i n beef con-sumption a r i s i n g from changes i n the r a t i o of prices of beef to pork. (Indications are that beef consumption was f a l l i n g i n the l a s t part of 1954, mainly as a resu l t of lower pork p r i c e s ) . The average yearly per capita consumption of beef i n Canada f o r the years 1940-1953 was 58.6 pounds. On the basis of 60 pounds per capita consumption the increases i n animals required should be about 65,000 head per year or s l i g h t l y over 3 per cent of the 1953 slaughter. In ten years t h i s would amount to a one-third increase over the production of 1.8 m i l l i o n head i n 1953. This indicates that c a t t l e prices should show signs of strengthening unless c a t t l e num-bers continue to increase at an equal rate. - 102 -The Demand i n the United States What i s the position on the United States market which has been almost the sole export market f o r Canadian livestock? From 1948-1953 the average per capita consump-tion of beef was 63.1 pounds and there was an upward trend. In 1953 over 76 pounds per capita were consumed and the estimate f o r 1954 i s 79 pounds. Population has been increas-ing by 1.75 per cent annually from 1948-1953 and disposable income per person has increased on the average over 4 per cent per year."*" With the per cent of disposable incomes spent on meat remaining r e l a t i v e l y constant, the demand fo r meat r i s e s . If the United States population continued to increase at a rate of at least one per cent per year, t h i s would mean an increase of over 1.6 m i l l i o n people per year or an added consumption of 120 m i l l i o n pounds of beef (as-suming per capita consumption to be 75 pounds) or about 240,000 head of animals per year. If incomes continue to r i s e at an average rate of 2 per cent per year and demand for meat r i s e s proportionately, there w i l l be an additional demand 6fvo.ver-.thr.ee pounds per year or about 2.7 pounds of beef and pork on the basis of 1953 consumption. In the United States, pork consumption i s usually greater than beef* from 1900-1953 there were only eleven years, scattered throughout the period, when the reverse of t h i s was true. From 1940-1953 beef consumption averaged 60.72 1 The United States Department of Agriculture, The Live-stock and Meat Situation (Washington, Department of A g r i c u l -ture), October, 1954, p. 9. -103-pounds per capita while pork was 68.8 pounds* i n 1953 the relationship was reversed and beef consumption was 75 pounds with pork at 63. Pork prices dropped i n 1954 with the i n -crease i n supplies and consumption r i s i n g . Beef slaughter was up by 7 per cent i n 1954 over 1953 and i s expected to re-main about the same f o r 1955. There has been an increase i n slaughter of cows, heifers and calves, and inventories are ex-pected to be s l i g h t l y lower. 1 The 1955 Outlook Issue on the Livestock and Meat Situation published by the United States Department of A g r i -culture sums up the s i t u a t i o n as follows: they expect a smaller c a l f crop i n 1955 and further reductions i n the future; slaughter of inventories w i l l tend to keep production high; consumption w i l l l i k e l y remain above 70 pounds per cap-i t a for the next few years and prices w i l l be determined by the strength of the demand. They anticipate that the beef supply w i l l eventually decrease and i f productivity and i n -comes continue to grow the demand for beef w i l l be strong enough to encourage and support a new r i s e i n c a t t l e numbers. It i s anticipated that a small reduction w i l l take place i n the mid-1950's but that "... numbers may be expected to 2 climb to new highs i n the early 1960's." In the l i g h t of the national and international mar-ket potential a r i s i n g market f o r B r i t i s h Columbia c a t t l e 1 The United States Department of Agriculture, The Live-stock and Meat Situation, (Washington, Department of A g r i c u l -ture, October ,) 1954, p. 9-2 Ibid., p. 17. -104-would appear to be assured f o r the next few years. B r i t i s h Columbia's population i s growing, incomes are r i s i n g , and there i s already a considerable d e f i c i t i n production. Prices should be favourable as the demand continues strong i n a l l related markets. However, weather conditions a f f e c t -ing feed supplies could change the beef supply picture, and general price trends and international developments could change the present outlook with respect to future market prices. The Beef Supply Situation The Short Run While the numbers of c a t t l e and calves have been increasing since. 1920 the rate has been f a i r l y slow. In B r i t i s h Columbia there were 377,000 head i n 1954 which was an increase of 25,000 over 1953- (Appendix T able 18). While t h i s i s not a record i t i s the highest l e v e l since 1945. If the pattern of past cycles i n numbers of c a t t l e and calves i s to be repeated, then there should be a l e v e l l i n g off and decline i n numbers i n the near future. The fac t that c a t t l e prices have been lower and that feed prices have been r i s i n g t h i s summer and f a l l w i l l l i k e l y cause a speed-up i n the cycle with increased slaughterings, e s p e c i a l l y of heifers and cows which make up the major part of the breeding herd. -105-Th e Long Run Some l i g h t may be shed on the supply s i t u a t i o n i n the long run by an analysis of trends and cycles of cat-t l e numbers on farms i n past periods. Since 1906 numbers of c a t t l e and calves have been gradually increasing i n both United States and Canada. From the period low i n 1912 i n the United States to the peak i n 1954- cat t l e numbers i n -creased over 90 per cent. In Canada c a t t l e numbers were lowest i n 1910, the peak was 1945, and the increase about 50 per cent. B r i t i s h Columbia ca t t l e numbers have shown an almost continuous increase from 1906 to the peak l e v e l i n 1945 and t h i s increase was over 200 per cent (Figure 3). E a r l i e r i n t h i s report i t was indicated that f a i r l y regular cycles seemed to occur but of d i f f e r e n t leng-ths f o r d i f f e r e n t regions. While some va r i a t i o n does occur the cycles seem to be f a i r l y c l o s e l y related f o r Canada and the United States. Changes i n Canadian c a t t l e numbers seem to have a tendency to lag behind those i n the United States by one to two years, possibly due to the fa c t that actions i n the American market have such a bearing on the Canadian market, with Canadian response being a l i t t l e slower. There have been almost four complete cycles i n both the United States and Canada since 1905. Each cycle in the United States has had a six-year period of increasing numbers but the length of time f o r decreasing numbers has -106-varied from four to ten years. Canadian c a t t l e numbers i n -creased f o r nine years after the low of 1910, but for each of the succeeding cycles numbers increased f o r only s i x years as they did i n the United States. Periods of decreases i n ca t t l e numbers have varied i n length from f i v e to nine years. The two cycles completed since 1928 have been shorter i n length i n both countries than the previous cycle; they were eleven and twelve years i n Canada and ten and eleven years respectively i n the United States. The l a s t low point i n catt l e numbers i n the United States was i n 1949; inventories were up s l i g h t l y again i n January 1955 which makes the sixth successive year of r i s i n g numbers. Canadian c a t t l e numbers did not reach t h e i r low point u n t i l 1951, two years after the American low; since 1951 numbers have increased for the three years i n a row. If the same pattern i s followed as i n the past, peak numbers should occur i n Canada i n 1956 and not l a t e r than 1957. The explanation for c a t t l e cycles i s not simple. It i s made up of a combination of factors such as the re-production rate of c a t t l e , imperfections i n knowledge of supply and demand, and general economic conditions. Due to b i o l o g i c a l factors i t takes about four years to b u i l d up a breeding herd and to obtain the f i r s t calves which w i l l add to beef supplies. Thus, i t i s almost impossible to expect the maximum buildup of c a t t l e numbers i n les s than four to si x years. The length of time for reduction of numbers -107-depends on many things, among them being the depth to which prices have dropped as re s u l t of increased slaughterings, the alternatives available to producers and conditions with respect to feed supplies. Imperfections i n knowledge of supply and demand tend to set conditions ripe for the b i o l o g i c a l factor to play i t s part i n the cycle. The f a c t that producers tend to plan for tomorrow on the basis of today's conditions leads to produc-tion cycles. Producers seeing high prices and p r o f i t s today plan for a larger expansion than the market warrants and the result i s that excess future supplies from heavier marketings cause lower prices and p r o f i t s . The producer then reduces his herd . and cuts back production u n t i l prices go up to nevr levels and the old force i s set i n motion once more. The t h i r d factor, general economic conditions, seems to affect the cycle but mostly to accentuate i t and to leng-then or shorten i t . High prices during the f i r s t war caused cattle numbers to increase to new heights, reaching a peak i n Canada i n 1918. Then lower c a t t l e prices and boom con-ditions i n alternative types of production led to decreases i n herds. Depression conditions of the early 1920's tended to lengthen the period of decline i n numbers. Higher price l e v e l s generally and decreasing meat supplies i n the l a t e 1920's led to another large expansion program. This expan-sion was dampened somewhat by the depression beginning i n I929 and numbers f a i l e d to go much beyond previous peak -108-l e v e l s . The depression caused a fa s t e r reduction i n c a t t l e numbers than usual, but t h i s period of reduction was short-ened with the economic recovery beginning about 1937 - de-mand increased and prices began to r i s e when the second World War was pending. High l e v e l s of employment and r i s i n g price l e v e l s during the period of the second World War gave added impetus to the drive to expand and as a r e s u l t numbers of cattle on farms rose to unprecedented l e v e l s by 1945« When the War ended much of the Canadian and United States export market was l o s t , meat supplies were large and as a result meat prices f a i l e d to respond to the postwar i n f l a t i o n as did other prices and costs. Producers l i q u i d a t e d t h e i r herds and turned to more p r o f i t a b l e enterprises. However, t the r i s i n g price l e v e l , as a resu l t of i n f l a t i o n and increased de:-m an d ' soon forced meat prices to r i s e to new l e v e l s i n the face of shorter supplies. This again brought producer response and of course the subsequent price drops which have been accentuated by a general l e v e l l i n g off of prices i n the rest of the economy. If the expected decrease i n cattle num-bers materializes over the next few years, a buoyant economy would help to set conditions ripe for higher c a t t l e prices and perhaps new high lev e l s i n c a t t l e numbers again i n the early 1960's. Contractions w i l l l i k e l y be smaller than i n previous periods due to the increased demand resu l t i n g from r i s i n g incomes and increasing population, as well as the fact that producers may lack a more l u c r a t i v e a l t e r n a t i v e . -109-, B r i t i s h Columbia's c a t t l e cycle has tended to vary somewhat from those of Canada and the United States. In most cases the cycle has been shorter in length with only two to three years of decreasing numbers. The most apparent reason for t h i s would seem to be that B r i t i s h Columbia's beef industry has been i n an era of continuous expansion. The drive to expand has tended to o f f s e t the general con-ditions contributing to expansion and contraction. Since 1939, however, the production pattern i n t h i s Province has been almost i d e n t i c a l to that of a l l Canada. While the trend of c a t t l e numbers w i l l l i k e l y continue upward, i t w i l l probably be at a slower rate and B r i t i s h Columbia's produc-tion cycles w i l l l i k e l y continue to follow the a l l Canada pattern, having given way to other than forces of expansion. Expansion P o s s i b i l i t i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia B r i t i s h Columbia has considerable room f o r expan-sion i n the long run. However, with the present system of operation there i s l i t t l e chance of expanding range produc-t i o n . Range lands i n B r i t i s h Columbia are r e l a t i v e l y scarce and are being used almost to capacity with present extensive methods. Shortage of hay and winter range are the chief l i m i t i n g factors. There i s some l i m i t e d acreage of good range land not presently being used but there are greater p o s s i b i l i t i e s of expansion through more intensive production. Increased use of f e r t i l i z e r s and i r r i g a t i o n can increase the -110-production of both hay land and mountain grazing land. Present range conditions require ten acres and over per animal and much of the hay i s produced at around one ton or less per acre. Experiments have been conducted by which the production of beef per acre on pasture has been as high as 800 pounds, 1 compared to most range production of about i 20 to 30 pounds. Hay production could be increased as well, thus making i t possible to expand the herd s i z e . Consider-ing that there are over 300,000 acres of tame hayland i n the province, an increase of one ton per acre on one-half of t h i s land would produce enough addit i o n a l hay to carry ap-proximately 100,000 more c a t t l e through the winter. An i l l u s t r a t i o n demonstrates the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of p r o f i t s through the intensive use of pasture. If on one acre i r r i g a t i o n i s applied at a cost of $30, and 400 pounds of f e r t i l i z e r at a cost of $25, the add i t i o n a l costs are $55. Since up to 800 pounds of beef per acre have been produced i n experiments, i t should be safe to assume that 550 pounds could be produced under ranch conditions. This means that the operator has increased production per acre by about 520 pounds over present range production for an additional cost of $55« If the c a t t l e price was 15 cents per pound, i t would require 367 pounds of meat per acre to pay f o r the added 1 Nicholson, H. H., Beef B u l l Research at Canada Range  Experiment Station, c i t e d i n Beef B u l l Research Project  1953-54. Vancouver, Department of Extension, The University of B r i t i s h Columbia, p. 2. - I l l -cost, thus leaving a net gain of 153 pounds as result of the use of i n t e n s i f i e d methods. With higher c a t t l e prices, the situation i s even more favourable, as i t w i l l then require fewer pounds of meat to pay f o r the costs of f e r t i l i z e r and i r r i g a t i o n . There i s a p o s s i b i l i t y too of increasing produc-tion by employing the c a l f crop system, provided that i t i s supplemented with feed l o t operations elsewhere than on the range. By this method a larger breeding herd can be main-tained and more calves produced. If feedlot operations are. not p r a c t i c a l , the breeding herd should be r e s t r i c t e d so that the steers and heifers may be fed f o r longer periods. An i l l u s t r a t i o n w i l l serve to indicate possible gains from long feeding programs. Assuming that a ranch operator can obtain 75 per cent c a l f crop and that his win-ter feeding period i s 150 days, and i f the cows were given a hay ration of 16 pounds per day, they would require 2,400 pounds each for the winter. Four cows would require 4.8 tons of hay and they would produce three calves. The calves would weigh about 400 pounds each i n the f a l l or a t o t a l of 1,200 pounds. A four-hundred-pound steer could be wintered to gain .75 pounds per day on a r a t i o n of ten pounds of hay and two pounds of concentrate. The hay would be fed 150 days, the concentrate f o r 180 days and a t o t a l of 1,500 pounds of hay and 360 pounds of concentrate would be needed per steer. The steers would gain 112 pounds each i n the -112-winter and 225 pounds i n the summer (gains are taken at the rate of 1.5 pounds per day f o r 150 days on pasture) to give a t o t a l gain per animal of 337 pounds. The hay fed to the cows i n the above example w i l l feed more than six steers. The s i x steers w i l l gain a t o t a l of 2,022 pounds or 822 pounds more than with the c a l f crop system. However, 2,160 pounds of concentrate had to be purchased to supplement the hay rat i o n f o r the steers and with concentrate at about $64 per ton and beef at $15 per hundredweight i t w i l l require 460 pounds of beef to pay for the add i t i o n a l feed. This leaves a net difference of 362 pounds. The figures as given indicate that a rancher, face with the problem of the best use of his hay, would do well to consider adjustments i n his breeding herd i n order to. feed his calves f o r additional gains. Actually the long feeding system i s l i k e l y more advantageous than the example indicates. While 75 per cent calf crop i s desirable, i t i s not generally attained and production records indicate that cows need more than 16 pounds of hay per day for proper maintenance. Also, the gains for steers on the winter ra-tion were minimum expectations. Other factors are involved as well: the work load w i l l be more evenly di s t r i b u t e d with the steer feeding program; fewer bu l l s w i l l be required; and the cost of replacements on the breeding herd w i l l be lower. Even greater gains can be attained by holding the steers for -113-a second winter and reports indicate that prices are higher for the more mature animals. It i s possible that a rancher may use the c a l f crop system i n conjunction with a feedlot - perhaps at the coast. With t h i s system, maximum use of ranch feed would be made i n producing the raw material f o r the feedlot oper-ation. There are some advantages i n such an arrangement: the climate at the coast i s mild and l i t t l e shelter i s re-quired* a l l f r e i g h t i s paid on feed from Calgary or Edmon-ton * 1 (since February 1, 1955- the subsidy on f r e i g h t has been reduced by almost 50 per cent) the finished steers are close to the market and the operator i n a better bargaining position* steers fed out i n feedlots would be of higher quality, thus meeting the standards of the coast market and commanding a better price. However, feed i s an important item in dry-lot operations and at present prices margins on feeding are not large. If the operator has t o buy a l l his feed, he must be extremely c a r e f u l i n weighing the advantages of the alternatives available to him. In the long run i t would appear that most of the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of expansion w i l l be exploited to the f u l l e s t degree. In many instances i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n w i l l probably lower production costs and force other operators to follow s u i t j i n other cases increased demand and higher prices w i l l bring on the use of i n t e n s i f i e d methods. 1 Unpublished report received from the Feeds' Administra-tor, (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) September, 1954. -114-Competing supplies from other areas cannot be ignored i n predictions of the future for the industry i n B r i t i s h Columbia. The change i n government pplicy with respect to f r e i g h t rates i n 1955 has resulted i n some re-duction i n B r i t i s h Columbia's competitive position with re-spect to p r a i r i e producers. The p o s s i b i l i t y of complete elimination of the subsidy must be considered i n future plans. The supply-demand s i t u a t i o n outside of B r i t i s h Col-umbia i s f a r from depressing. Beef consumption i n both Can-ada and the United States i s at record l e v e l s and i t i s ex-pected to continue upward due to population increases and r i s i n g incomes. Meanwhile, c a t t l e numbers in the United States have become f a i r l y stable and predictions are that they w i l l decline i n the coming years. Cattle numbers i n Canada w i l l l i k e l y , reach peak l e v e l s by about 1956. Exports from Canada to the United States have increased considerably i n 1954 and may be expected to continue upward. Supplies of pork and other substitutes f o r beef such as poultry have been increasing and t h e i r respective prices f a l l i n g . In the short run t h i s has an adverse affect on beef prices. It w i l l probably help to speed up the beef production cycle by helping to bring about decreases i n sup-p l i e s . However, substitute products are subject to much shorter production cycles and t h e i r depressing a f f e c t on beef prices should be of short duration. -115-Expected Prices Seasonal Changes What prices can be expected, with the above con-ditions of supply and demand? As has already been indicated, l i t t l e change can be expected i n the immediate future, ex-cept for the usual seasonal price v a r i a t i o n s . . Average monthly prices at Calgary f o r 1946-1953 indicate that the highest prices have been paid most f r e -quently from June to August for the medium to choice grades, and mainly from May to June for common animals. Monthly marketing i n B r i t i s h Columbia for 1951-1953 were highest i n February and March and from August or September to December. They were low from A p r i l to August. Thus, marketings seem to be at a peak when prices are lowest and visa versa (Figure 7 - 14). Unless the marketing pattern for a l l Canada changes, the seasonal price pattern should remain f a i r l y close to the above. Previous studies^ on seasonal price movements i n d i c -ate that changes i n seasonal patterns of prices are very slow 2 to m a t e r i l i z e . Prices Favourable i n the L 0ng Run Prices i n the long run, should be favourable to the industry. It i s u n l i k e l y that there w i l l be a return to the 1 Schrader, F. M. and Woo-llam, G. E., Seasonal Variation  i n Prices and Production of Livestock and Livestock Products, (Ottawa, Canada Department of Agriculture) April,1953• 2 Note:- Refer to ChapterIV for detailed analysis of seasonal price variations and of inter-market price r e l a t i o n s . -116-hlgh prices of 1951 but an improvement i s indicated f o r the next few years while c a t t l e numbers are s t a b i l i z i n g and pos-s i b l y decreasing. The industry has been passing through a period of considerable i n s t a b i l i t y . During the war meat prices were controlled but at r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l s . Cat-t l e and c a l f numbers increased considerably as did hogs and other livestock, bolstered by a strong demand both at home and abroad. Following the war the export demand f o r meat declined and with the heavy supplies available prices f e l l s l i g h t l y . The post-war boom and i n f l a t i o n caused costs i n the beef industry to r i s e and p r o f i t s i n alternative enter-prises ( e s p e c i a l l y grain growing) became more a t t r a c t i v e . As a r e s u l t c a t t l e numbers declined from 1945-1951 i n Canada and i n B r i t i s h Columbia. (Minimum numbers on farms i n the United States came i n 1949). Cattle prices did not react to the decrease i n numbers u n t i l 1948 and a f t e r that period they rose to the peak l e v e l s reached i n 1951. The combination of the con-tinued reduction i n supplies, plus an increasing population, increasing incomes and the generally r i s i n g price l e v e l , actually pushed c a t t l e prices to a point where the industry was exceptionally p r o f i t a b l e . Farmers and ranchers made and carried out plans to get into the beef business, and grain growers loaded with stockpiles of feed turned to c a t t l e r a i s i n g as a means of s e l l i n g t h e i r grain. As a r e s u l t , -117-c a t t l e numbers moved upward i n Canada and i n the United States they were over 10 per cent above any previous l e v e l by January 1954-With this increase i n cattle numbers, beef supplies have increased and there has been considerable downward price adjustment. In Canada prices f e l l somewhat faster .than would have been expected from a normal adjustment be-cause of the hoof and mouth disease and the r e s u l t i n g em-bargo placed on exports to the United States on February 25, 1952. On A p r i l 9, 1952, the Prices Support Board announced price supports on c a t t l e at $25 per 100 pounds f o r good steers at Toronto. On September 29, 1952, t h i s was reduced, to $23. During the period of support prices the government arranged a three-way exchange deal by s e l l i n g beef to B r i t a i n , with New Zealand taking the American import trade from Canada. Beef support prices were discontinued February 21, 1953, and the embargo to the United States was removed on March 2, 1953. In 1951 a l l c a t t l e prices averaged $28.22, i n 1952 they were $20, and i n 1953 they were $15.30. The 1954 l e v e l may average out s l i g h t l y l e s s than t h i s but f o r the l a s t half of the year prices have been higher than the same period of 1953. Indications are that the period of downward adjustment i s about over and that c a t t l e prices w i l l remain about the. same for the coming year but should increase thereafter. A P P E N D I X APPENDIX I UNITED STATES TARIFFS AND AGREEMENTS, 1930-1953 1930 Fordney-McCumber; under 1 , 0 5 0 l b . - lgvtj 1 , 0 5 0 l b . and over - 2$ ( B r i t i s h embargo removed). 1931 Hawley-Smoot; under 700 l b . - 2j?tf; 700 l b . and over -3$ (Ottawa Agreements). 1932 - d i t t o -1933 - d i t t o -1934 - d i t t o -1935 - d i t t o -1936 U. S.-Canada Agreement - Slaughter and feeder. 1937 Under 175 l b . (quota 5 1 , 9 3 3 ) - ls0 per l b . ; over quota 1938 - 2 ^ ; 2 0 0 - 6 9 9 l b . - 2^0; 700 l b . and over (quota 1 5 5 , 7 9 9 ) 2 $ ; over quota - 3 $ . Dairy cows - 700 l b s . and over (quota 2 0 , 0 0 0 ) - lg£. 1939 U. S.-Canada Agreement - Slaughter and feeder. 1940 Under 200 l b . (quota 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 a ) - l | * ; over quota - 2 ^ ; 1941 2 0 0 - 6 9 9 l b . - 2 j $ ; 700 l b . and over (quota 2 2 5 , 0 0 0 a ) -1942 lstf; over quota 3# • Dairy cows - 700 l b . and over -1943 l i s * . 1944 U. S.-Mexico Agreement - Slaughter and feeder. 1945 Same as above except 2 0 0 - 6 9 9 l b . (quota 4 0 0 , 0 0 0 a ) -1946 ls£ per l b . ; over quota 2gc*. 1947 1948 G.A.T.T. - Slaughter and feeder. Under 200 l b s . (quota 1949 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 a ) - 1^0; .over quota - 2^0; 2 0 0 - 6 9 9 l b . - same as 1944; 700 l b . and over (quota 4 0 0 , 0 0 0 a ) - 1^0. over quota 2^£. Dairy cows - 700 l b . and over - lg$ lb, 1950 U. S.-Mexico trade agreement terminated December 3 1 , 1 9 5 0 . Rate of c a t t l e 2 0 0 - 6 9 9 l b . became 2|$ l b . 1951 Rates i n effect - Slaughter and feeder a. Under 200 l b . - l i $ l b . ; 2 0 0 - 6 9 9 l b . - 2&{; 700 l b . and over l£* . Dairy cows - 700 l b . and over lg£. 1952 Imports from Canada suspended February 2 5 t h due to outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth disease i n Saskatchewan. 1953 Ban on imports from Canada l i f t e d March 2 n d . Rates i n effect - Slaughter and feeder. Under 200 l b . (quota 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 ) - 1^ -cJ; over quota - 2itf; 2 0 0 - 6 9 9 l b . 2|^» Dairy cows - 700 l b . and over l f 0 . a Quota suspended from January 3 0 , 1 9 4 3 , u n t i l 30 days a f t e r . The President, a f t e r termination of the national emergency, proclaimed May 2 7 , 1 9 4 1 , that the abnormal situation with respect to c a t t l e and meats had terminated. Pure breeds for breeding, free i n a l l cases. Sources: Livestock Market Review 1 9 5 3 . (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) p. 31« - 1 1 9 --12.0-APPENDIX 2 TABLE 15 FARM CASH INCOME FROM CATTLE AND CALVES BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CANADA, 1930-1953 (1935-39 = 100) B r i t i s h Columbia Canada income from income from c a t t l e and calves ca t t l e and calves Index Percentage Percentage Index Percentage Year of t o t a l of Canada of t o t a l cash farm income from cash farm income ca t t l e and income calves 1930 69-7 8.02 3-3 92.5 11.3 31 ;54',7 8.72 3-4 70.5 11.7 32 49-8 9.59 4.2 52.1 10.0 33 54.5 9.92 4-8 49.9 9.3 34 56.5 8.94 4.2 59.0 9.2 35 64-3 9.72 3.5 81.3 12.0 36 83-5 11.54 4.3 84.6 11.3 37 121.0 14.55 4.4 120.0 14.8 38 117-1 13.75 5-4 94.8 11.5 39 114.0 13.13 4.2 119.3 13.2 1940 124.4 14.33 4.1 '135.0 14.3 41 246.7 21.46 6.3 171.4 14.8 42 151.8 11.85 3.3 204.7 14.0 43 177-1 10.63 3.5 220.5 12.1 44 180. 5 9.23 3.2 247.3 10.6 45 271.3 12.60 3.5 340.2 15.8 46 286.4 11.09 3-6 349-1 15.7 47 294.9 10.91 4.4 297.4 11.9 48 407.3 13.68 3.5 518.3 16.5 49 360.3 12.40 3-0 521.6 16.4 1950 517.0 17.70 3.7 616.8 21.8 51 670.2 21.30 4-7 623.7 17.5 52 373.6 12.48 3-9 422.7 11.8 53 318.1 10.71 3.4 418.1 12.1 Source : Handbook of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s (Ott awa, Domin-ion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) (Ref. Paper No . 25, Part II) February 19 52 pp. 26-27 and 44-45. Farm Cash Income, 1953 (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) pp. 4' -8. TABLE 16 CASH INCOME FROM THE SALE OF FARM PRODUCTS AND THE INDEX OF PHYSICAL VOLUME OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CANADA, 1930-1953  B r i t i s h Columbia Canada  Cash farm Index of Cash farm _ Index of r> a. income Total cash physical income Total cash physical D a t e income, f a r m volume of farm volume of catt l e and ± ( ± a g r i c u l t u r a l c a " l e and i n c o m e ( i n a g r i c u l t u r a l calves ( i n T V l„, 1 < = a T,H 0> production calves U n . . N production thousands) thousands) ( I ^ . ^ i o o ) thousands) thousands) (I935.39i.lOO) 1930 2,426 30,234 73,140 647,070 _ 31 1,905 1,734 21,842 - 55,795 41,231 476,101 -32 18,074 - 412,253 422,567 -33 1,897 19,123 - 39,468 -34 1,968 22,008 23,004 -46,696 506,370 -35 2,240 2,908 91.2 64,339 536,030 95.2 36 25,190 28,966 94.8 66,894 590,670 85.1 37 4,216 101.1 94,908 641,986. 83-7 38 4,080 29,670 102.5 74,996 653,120 107.4 39 3,971 ' 30,238 110.4 94,389 717,748 128.7 1940 4,333 30,237 115.5 106,786 744,699 130.1 41 8,594 40,055 113.4 135,583 914,734 109.1 42 . 5,287 44,601 99.9 161,897 1,154,367 164.2 43 6,169 58,019 114.7 174,435 1,438,384 113.7 44 6,288 68,136 140.0 195,620 269,151 1,846,697 140.4 45 9,450 74,995 131.1 1,702,251 110.9 46 9,977 82,132 151.9 276,146 1,759,369 1,976,624 125.6 47 10,272 94,165 146.8 235,281 116.0 48 14,185 103,655 143.7 409,975 2,483,896 125.1 49 12,550 101,222 148.7 412,629 2,512,409 2,237,328 122.3 1950 18,007 101,709 134.2 487,960 137.8 51 23,344 109,618 126.9 493,396 2,826,817 154.7 52 13,013 104,262 132.2 334,352 2,831,747 165.2 53 11,080 103,440 135.3 330,705 2,742,824 155.0 Sources: Handbook of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s -t i c s ) No. 25 (Part I I ) , Feb. 1952, pp. 26-27 and 44-45; also Farm Cash  Income, 1953 (Ottawa, Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) pp. 4-8. Index of Farm  hroduciion 1953, (Ottawa, Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) May 195H7 TABLE 17 NUMBERS OF LIVESTOCK ON FARMS IN CANADA, JUNE 1, 1932-1954 (In Thousands) Cows and Cows and Yearling heifers for milk Yearling heifers for milk Date Bulls . ( l yr. old and over) heifers (2 years old heifers (2 years old Steers 1 year and Calves under Total c a t t l e and .calves and over for milk and over for beef (1-2 yrs.) (1-2 yrs.) over 1 year 1932 271.8 3,725.5 479.3 885.6 448.1 697.4 2,003.4 • 8,511.1 33 259-9 3,694.0 633.7 909.1 475.9 778.8 2,124.6 8,876.0 34 261.4 3,864.2 634.6 899.0 487.6 751.0 2,054.1 8,951-9 35 276.5 3,849.2 671.4 858.9 494-0 684.1 1,986.5 8,820.6 36 251.7 3,885.3 666.4 841.1 332.3 833 .0 2,030.8 8,840.6 37 268.8 3,940.4 616.4 915.0 338.9 757.3 2,003.7 8,840.5 38 258.0 3,873.8 530.1 897-1 305.7 705 .7 1,940.8 8,511.2 39 256.1 3,873-5 529.8 926.1 306.1 646.2 1,936.8 8,474.6 1940 248.9 3,894.7 546.5 885.5 292.3 690.1 2,007.3 8,565.3 41 229.1 3,587.7 523.3 895-3 296.3 838.1 2,141.6 8,511.4 42 255.7 3,680.5 579-9 928.0 319.4 846.1 2,335.1 8,944.7 43 277.4 3,794.7 702.7 983.3 380.2 1,003.6 2,523 .3 9,665.2 44 299-8 3,929.6 826.7 1,047.5 446.3 1,155.9 2,640.0 10,345.8 45 308.2 3,998.2 955-3 1,033-3 509.9 1,267.9 2,685 .8 10,758.6 46 304.5 3,913.9 949.0 976.2 492.3 1,157.3 2,591.8 2,483.3 10,385 .0 47 289.4 3,697.4 876.5 943.9 417.1 1,010.5 925.9 9,718.1 48 293.4 3,700.7 834.8 914.0 406.5 2,400.6 9,475-9 49 268.2 3,620.2 787-5 904.4 370.6 806.2 2,324.2 9,081.3 1950 268.2 3,608.7 882.6 848.0 355 .2 773.3 2,309.3 9,045.3 51 206.4 2,903.8 1,114.9 849 .4 520.7 668.1 2,099.8 8,363.1 52 231.9 2,968.0 1,308.8 922.4 620.0 811.5 2,310.1 9,172.7 53 236.1 3,146.2 1,435.2 941.4 665.4 891.2 2,446.7 9,762.2 54 233.9 3,233.0 1,530.8 907.5 664.O 893.0 2,490.9 9,954.0 Sources: Monthly B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Sta-t i s t i c s ) 1932-1940. Quarterly B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s . (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) , 1941-1953. Livestock Survey;" Cattle. (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) , July 1954. TABLE 18 NUMBERS OF LIVESTOCK ON FARMS ..IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, JUNE 1, 1932-1954 Cows and Cows and Bulls heifers (2 heifers (2 p e a r l i n g Yearling Steers C a l v e s Total Date (1 yr. old yrs. old and yrs. old } £ * * * k } £ ' ™ f ^ under and over) over for and over ( l _ 2 y r g # ) ( l ; 2 y r g 0 1 year C a l v e s milk for be f1932 6,100 115,200 47,800 18,500 10,000 . 19,900 39,500 257,000 33 6,600 90,800 55,500 22,600 17,100 31,800 55,800 280,200 34 6,800 98,700 56,400 24,100 20,600 29,500 58,300 294,400 35 7,200 106,100 58,100 25,200 21,200 34,700 60,200 312,700 36 7,700 117,800 57,100 28,200 21,900 39,900 55,700 328,300 37 7,800 121,200 57,500 27,800 24,600 42,700 52,200 333,800 38 8,200 122,300 51,800 25,700 22.600 43,200 51,000 324,800 • 39 8,000 124,500 49,900 29,100 18,500 32,500 52,200 314,700 £ 1940 8,100 129,400 49,200 30,200 18,800 33,200 58,300 327,200 f 41 9,000 130,700 56,500 32,700 22,500 44,000 67,200 362,600 42 7,000 92,500 62,000 25,500 21,500 40,100 80,400 329,000 43 7,900 93,700 79,900 26,000 28:,;500 57,000 83,000.376,000 44 8,200 96,300 81,300. 26,700 27,800 60,700 80,500 381,500 45 7,800 98,700 89,800 26,100 32,100 91,000 71,100 416,700 46 7,700 95,500 93,300 24,500 31,000 59,400 78,100 389,500 47 7,700 95,500 83,000 23,500 25,700 49,900 73,400 358,700 48 8,200 93,600 81,600 20,000 22,600 51,500 84,500 362,000 49 7,700 94,000 84,000 18,800 21,900 46,500 75,500 348,400 1950 8,200 99,800 87,900 18,400 21,000 47,000 75,000 357,300 51 6,300 82,900 75,900 25,900 27,400 31,300 71,600 321,300 52 6,500 84,000 78,400 26,600 28,900 33,800 80,000 338,200 53 6,500 94,000 78,000 26,000 31,000 35,500 81,000 352,000 54 6,200 100,000 86,000 27,000 31,000 40,800 86,000 377,000 Source: Monthly B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of s t a t i s t i c s ) 1932-1940 Quarterly B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) 1941-1953. Livestock Survey: Cattle, (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) July, 1954. -124-TABLE 19 DELIVERIES OF LIVESTOCK TO STOCKYARDS AND PACKING PLANTS BY' RAIL AND TRUCK, BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CANADA, 1940-1953 B r i t i s h Columbia Canada percentage by truck percentage by truck Cattle Calves Cattle Calves 1940 16.24 51.93 49.37 56.71 41 15.69 47.62 49.02 58.85 42 19.60 58.24 46.22 55.33 43 13.36 32.89 38.20 47.94 44 15.97 27.54 39.50 50.36 45 20.64 33.41 42.97 50.15 4$ 20.03 21.52 44.66 52.20 47 20.22 18.83 46.54 54.14 48 26.13 17.07 48.98 54.28 49 17.98 19.02 54.69 62.76 1950 32.18 59.60 33-91 65-73 51 39.79 47.78 64.80 70.56 52 22.24 36.79 67-95 75.63 53 32.43 38.90 71.08 77.00 Source: Livestock Market Review. Agriculture) I94O-I953. (Ottawa, Department of -INS-TABLE 20 AVERAGE MONTHLY CATTLE MARKETINGS BY CLASSES, BRITISH COLUMBIA 1951-1953 (Per cent) Steers up to 1,000 l b s . Steers over 1,000 l b s . Month Choice Good Medium Common Choice Good Medium Common Jan. 2.95 4.36 5.09 5.41 7.50 4.08 3-26 1.59 Feb. 3..68 3.12 3.91 3.63 7.21 5.53 3.50 1.86 March 12.80 6.97 7.05 4.02 10.66 4.25 4.15 1.86 A p r i l 3.68 5.04 2.12 1.71 1.30 1.15 0.41 1.59 May 2.18 1.64 2.36 1.78 1.86 1.21 0.57 0.53 June 1.40 1.33 1.21' 4.22 1.82 1.82 1.14 2.12 July 3.11 2.29 3.17 5.27 3.12 2.12 7.82 2.39 Aug. 7.57 5.95 6.44 8.83 6.65 11.22 8.88 8.22 Sept; 15.34 20.67 19.49 20.96 17.18 26.49 19.95 15.92 Oct. 17.26 16.77 23.26 17.73 11.39 13.21 23.53 36.87 Nov. 14.72 15.94 15-81 15.89 15.52 15.77 15.15 16.44 Dec. 15.29 15.92 10.08 10.55 15 .80 13.14 11.64 10.61 Heifers Stockers and feeders Month Choice Good Medium Common Cows Bulls Steers Cows and heifers Jan. 5.20 4.05 6.31 8.41 5.73 4.62 1.72 3.61 Feb. 5.80 3.52 3.56 3.53 6.23 4.62 2.50 3.36 March 5.40 8.26 5.37 4.78 7.10 7.34 2.31 2.43 A p r i l 1.60 O.98 1.92 2.06 3.96 6.45 3.34 5.37 May 1.00 0.57 1.02 2.12 3.67 6.20 1.87 3.27 June 1.00 1.14 2.35 5.59 7.59 11.95 2.80 4.19 July 1.80 5.60 5.21 6.84 9.27 8.41 1.87 3.69 Aug. 10.20 12.43 12.81 12.27 10.22 8.67 10.12 9.23 Sept. 18.80 17.58 15.51 15.36 13-06 9-87 21.56 17.95 October 9.20 13.65 15.43 11.78 9.66 9.36 25.64 19.30 Nov. 19.80 18.93 14.53 12.60 9.36 8.92 16.65 15.69 Dec. 20.20 13.29 15.98 14.66 14.15 13.60 9.63 11.91 Source: • Commercial Livestock Output Report. (Ottawa, Depart-ment of Agriculture) Vol. 21-23. -126-TABLE 21 AVERAGE MONTHLY CATTLE MARKETINGS BY CLASSES, CANADA 1951-1953 (Per cent) Month Steers up to 1,000 l b s . Steers over 1,000 l b s . Choice Good Medium Common Choice Good Medium Common Jan. 4.21 6.64 7.65 5.50 5.01 6.62 6.28 3.84 Feb. 5.19 7.24 7.24 6.O9 5.87 6.75 6.02 4.. 83 March 9.74 10.16 8.52 6.51 7.82 8.46 6.54 5.85 A p r i l 9.19 9.76 7.92 5.92 8.05 8.23 6.60 5.37 May- 11.48 11.04 8.92 6.69 12.72 10.04 8.87 7.26 June 19.49 13.93 9.35 6.49 15.96 12.74 8.73 9.61 July 11.28 7.70 5.97 6.52 11.02 7.90 6.62 5.70 Aug. 7.63 6.02 7.14 9.91 7.91 7.75 8.14 9.85 Sept. 7.00 8.39 10.26 13.47 8.78 9.80 11.32 11.00 Oct. 4.88 6.05 9.26 11.63 6.20 7.28 11.52 14.48 Nov. 4.74 6.15 9.60 12.09 5.16 7.10 11.15 13.26 Dec. 5.17 6.92 8.16 9.18 5.50 7.33 8.20 8.95 Heifers Stockers and feeders Month Choice Good Medium Common Cows Bulls Steers Cows and heifers Jan. 10.46 9.73 9.53 7.76 8.45 5.06 4.12 4.36 Feb. 8.69 7.72 7.37 6.76 7.11 4.81 4.45 4-77 March 8.58 9.40 7.74 6.24 7.22 5.67 3.90 3.76 A p r i l 6.41 7.64 6.22 4.98 6.50 5.85 4.38 4.06 May 7.39 7.17 6.26 4,93 5.84 7.16 4.90 4.28 June 12.11 8.98 6.23 5.25 8.18 11.64 6.33 6.42 July 7.03 6.'50^  5.90 6.30 7.51 10.23 5.51 7.25 August 6.85 7.35 7.92 9.51 7-68 10.00 9.64 9-47 Sept. 8.92 9-27 11.52 12.33 9.91 12.09 14.74 12.75 Oct. 5.37 7.12 10.32 12.09 10.11 10.65 17.14 17.03 Nov. 8.74 9.12 10.80 12.75 11.15 9.66 15.83 15.81 Dec. 9-45 9.97 10.18 11.11 10.12 7.17 9.06 10.05 Source: Commercial Livestock Output Report, (Ottawa, Depart-ment of Agriculture) Vol. 21-23. TABLE 22 SLAUGHTER AND CONSUMPTION OF CATTLE AND CALVES IN CANADA, 1930-1953 Cattle Average Total Calves Average Total Date slaughtered Dressed consumption slaughtered dressed consumption (i n thousands) Weight (i n thousands) (i n thousands) weight ( i n thousands) No. l b s . l b s . No. l b s . l b s . 1930 943.2 514.0 500,844 809.2 119.0 97,380 31 970.1 513.0 501,387 798.9 109.0 87,897 32 936.5 509.0 478,162 817.2 109.0 89,531 33 996.6 500.0 489,014 910.0 107.0 97,021 112,089 34 1,135.9 494.0 547,975 994.7 114.0 35 1,274-7 467.1 581,623 1,205.7 88.0 105,745 36 1,336.2 463 .6 603,620 1,247.6 1,478.3 90.9 111,802 37 1,397.9 1,389.0 445.8 602,682 638,184 87.7 130,914 38 460.2 1,388.9 83.4 114,929 116,696 39 1,337.2 460.4 599,151 645,289 1,347.7 86.6 1940 1,402.5 458.8 1,419.0 86.5 121,876 41 1,561.1 461.6 698,115 1,516.2 84.7 124,761 42 1,561.9 476.2 723,503 1,333.8 88.7 121,098 113,624 43 1,803.9 478.5 837,575 1,204.0 98.2 44 1,958.7 476.3 815,068 1,373.0 91.8 123,497 45 2,420.1 462.7 799,597 836,874 1,493.8 1,464.8 94.7 135,003 46 2,266.3 464.8 90.1 127,992 47 2,100.6 1,953.5 458.3 845,308 1,393-3 90.7 120,087 48 456.5 740,235 765,541 1,554.1 1,287.1 91.6 140,593 . 49 1,904.5 455.2 96.6 123,316 1950 1,729.3 457.1 696,901 1,387.4 90.8 127,324 51 1,472.0 481.3 612,720 645,961 1,166.3 . °'59;;2 94.7 -52 1,459-1 498.0 102.3 -53 1,837.5 491.4 873,196 1,318.3 104.7 - —• Sources: Livestock and Animal Product S t a t i s t i c s 1952, (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) Table 12 p. 13; 1940, Table 13 p. 17 Quarterly B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Dominion Bur-eau of S t a t i s t i c s ) Jan.-March, 1954, p. 41. -128-TABLE 23 CATTLE AND CALF SLAUGHTERINGS IN INSPECTED ESTABLISHMENTS 1920-1953 Year Canada B r i t i s h Animals Rejected or Columbia Condemned, Canada No* No. No. 1920 834,645 23,765 13,040 21 717,539 837,624 25,478 29,233 8,495 22 10,940 23 809,789 31,987 11,322 24 896,066 34,857 12,640 25 976,422 42,644 17,732 26 1,100,567 68,287 18,398 27 1,150,050 58,664 16,917 28 1,115,452 1,114,536 53,649 21,078 29 53,110 • 18,666 1930 978,533 55,834 13,568 31 964,439 53,494 11,076 32 939,085 48,748 10,375 •33 1,095,480 57,047 14,310 34 1,348,005 1,375,584 59,854 18,072 17,646 35 58,601 69,715 36 1,522,124 1,638,154 25,473 20,596 37 77,897 38 1,535,857 92,649 18,231 19,984 39 1,552,777 84,967 1940 1,594,837 81,334 19,521 41 1,731,520 1,637,087 1,615,141 95,414 98,063 21,815 42 20,270 43 112,283 18,025 44 2,015,366 2,606,650 120,616 149,867 23,057 45 30,284 46 2,420,784 144,763 27,319 47 1,957,070 2,277,293 115,820 133,912 25,420 32,663 48 49 2,205,766 137,563 29,280 1950 2,057,888 129,873 24,984 51 1,733,507 106,842 16,529 52 1,805,390 113,873 12,543 53 2,210,126 128,698 Source: 1. Livestock Market Review 1953, (Ottawa, Depart-ment of Agriculture) p. 28. 2. Livestock andAnimal Product S t a t i s t i c s 1952, (Ottawa Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) 1953 Table 9, p. 11j 1940 Table 8, p. 14. -129.-TABLE 24 BEEF CARCASSES GRADED, CANADA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1947-1953 (Per cent) BRITISH COLUMBIA A B C Dl D2 D3 M S 1947 25.01 33.17 19.25 3.83 7.60 3.35 - 7. 75 -48 14.52 26.89 28.74 !6.35 7.00 3.69 10.12 2.65 49 17.82 25.26 29.90 5.26 5.06 2.64 9.67 4.39 1950 17.45 20.49 25.28 5-80 6.32 5.09 13.06 6.51 51 27.92 19.45 19.24 3-83 4.79 5.62 13.08 6.07 52 38.31 23.10 19.77 2.92 4-97 2.60 5.17 3-16 53 41.57 20.46 18.79 3.19 4.53 2.08 4.76 4.62 CANADA A B C Dl D2 D3 M S 1947 12.35 19.05 25.55 6.45 14-26 7.35 -14. 99-48 7.62 13.00 26.70 8.37 12.94 9.28 16.69 5.40 49 6.38 12.34 28.46 9.75 11.90 9.63 16.55 4.99 1950 6.05 10.73 24.43 7,76 13.93 11.73 18.57 6.80 51 11.06 13.87 23.26 7-i8 13.38 9.98 14.24 7.03 52 17.40 17.53 25.21 6.90 10.05 7.20 10.15 5.56 53 17.65 18.06 24.12 8.00 10.32 6.48 10.07 5.30 A - Red Brand- B - Blue Brand- C - Commercial,- Dl - Plain; D2 - Good Cows; D3 - Common Cows; M - Manufacturing; S - Bu l l s . Source: Livestock Market Review 1953, (Ottawa, Department of Agriculture) p. 14; 1951, p. 19; 1949, p. 26. -130-TABLE 25 CONSUMPTION OF BEEF AND PORK IN CANADA, 1930-1953 Year Beef per capita Beef as per cent of t o t a l meat Pork per capita Pork as per cent of t o t a l meat Beef as per cent of pork lb s . l b s . 1930 49-1 41.6 52.8 44.8 93.0 31 48.3 42.1 51.9 45.2 93.1 32 45.5 39.4 55.3 47.9 82.3 33 45.8 40.7 52.0 46.2 88.1 34 50.-6 44.2 47.4 41.4 106.8 35 53.6 46.2 39.3 33.9 136.4 36 55.1 45.8 41.4 34.4 133-1 37 54.6 44.5 42.5 34-6 128.5 38 57.2 48.5 37.7 31.9 151.7 39 53.2 46.4 38.4 33-5 138.5 1940 54.5 44.9 44.7 36.8 121.9 41 58.3 44.9 46.3 35.7 125.9 42 60.1 43.3 53.3 38.4 112.8 43 69-3 44.6 61.0 39-2 113.6 44 66.6 43-3 61.3 39.8 108.6 45 64.6 45.4 50.2 35.3 128.. 7 46 67.2 46.3 51.3 35.3 131.0 47 67.2 46.2 51.9 35.7 129.5 48 57.5 42.5 53.9 39.8 106.7 49 56.5 40.8 59.2 42.7 95.4 1950 50.3 37.6 60.8 45.5 82.7 51 43.7 32.7 67.7 50.7 64.5 5.2 44.7 33.6 65.9 49.6 67.8 53 59.1 42.2 57.0 40.7 103.7 Source: Livestock and Animal Product S t a t i s t i c s 1952. (Ot-tawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) Table 94; 1949, Table 101; 1940, Table 27 and 66; and the Quarterly  B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Dom-inion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) , Jan.-March 1954, p. 41. TABLE 26 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF CATTLE, CALVES AND BEEF, CANADA, 1930-1953 Exports of ca t t l e Year To United Kingdom To United States To a l l countries Exports as per cent of a l l c a t t l e marketings Export s of calves Calf exports as per cent of a l l c a t t l e marketings Exports of beef Cattle Beef imports imports No. No." No. No. cwt. No. cwt. 1930 54,000 19,483 27,554 4.07 35,768 10.13 81,730 1,072 37,979 31 27,149 9,159 40,217 28,464 5.75 16,069 4.74 37,796 661 4,110 32 16,568 9,010 4.60 4,821. 1.43 46,021 262 4,114 33 50,317 5,686 59,158 63,673 7-96 976 .25 101,716 358 1,800 1,965 34 53,852 6,341 6.82 1,302 .23 151.658 300 35 6,704 102,934 112,771 233,631 10.38 21,587 3.51 137,944 127,446 188 226,301 36 38,495 191,149 18.21 51,783 7.62 357 262,864 37 9,610 208,552 222,112 129,807 16.08 99,648 11.60 176,544 528 254,703 224,669 38 27,307 98,408 201,065 12.09 49,414 84,634 6.61 57,881 288 39 .4,274 208,791 157,264 17.65 10.65 45,151 275 325,281 1940 - 153,856 189,896 13.00 76,517 9.35 39,130 163 230,059 41 - 193,241 14.37 60,886 7.35 79,048 97 172,272 42 - 158,175 56,666 161,406 12.53 54,389 7.05 159,611 133 109,475 43 - 60,385 4.85 2,340 .36 135,491 121 126,247 44 1 52,123 57,812 3-78 1,361 .19 1,074,111 278 122,802 45 4 68,719 77,301 3.82 2,269 .27 1,947,536 211 14,186 46 359 95,154 103,214 5.43 1,404 .18 1,381,908 463 62 47 310 74,106 82,727 5.29 496 .07 509,515 515 7,467 48 319 439,647 386;i65 431,654 446,458 21.70 10,894 1.30 1,338,224 680 12,303 49 389,131 19.64 31,524 3.61 1,069,034 835 273,077 3550 - 433,168 23.31 25,588 2.83 907,399 829 328,975 51 - 226,343 227,729 14.22 11,384 1.63 969,142 511,851 52 - 13J705 64,598 14 930 1.05 516 .08 675,622 338,242 53 — 67,300 3.81 2,205 .26 108,993 I Source: Livestock Market Revi . 25; 1946 - p. 25 Liv •Sta estock arid Animal t i s t i c s ) Table J A , ew 1953, ; 1 9 4 2 -Product P. 3U— (Ottawa, D p. 26: 193 S t a t i s t i c s Ibid., 1937 epartment 8 - P-,39, 1952, (Oti , Table 42 of Agricultur 1934 - p. 50 awa, Dominion p. 34. e) p. 29- 1949 Bureau of TABLE 27 MOVEMENTS OF CATTLE TO AND FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1949-1953 To B r i t i s h Columbia From B r i t i s h Columbia Year From B r i t i s h Columbia From Alberta Other Total To B r i t i s h Columbia To. Alberta Other Total No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. 1949 50 51 52 53 40,014 41,930 41,685 33,478 35,887 26,147 11,374 7,137 12,795 11,657 21 24 66,161 53,325 48,846 .46,273 47,544 40,014 41,930 41,685 33,478 35,887 4,848 8,096 9,878 3,889 5,223 163 51 2 134 71 45,025 50,077 51,565 37,501 41,181 Source: The Livestock Market Review, 1953,. (Ottawa, Department of Agri-culture) p. 15; 1952, p. 11- 1951, p. 11j 1950, p. 11j 1949, p. 17--133-TABLE 28 AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICES OF HIDES AND SKINS CANADA, 1932-1952 Tear Beef Hides (trimmed) cents per l b . 1932 0 3 - 1 33 4 . 1 34 4 . 6 35 6 . 3 36 7 . 5 37 1 0 . 0 38 5 . 7 39 8 . 3 1940 9 . 3 41 1 1 .2 42 1 2 . 0 43 1 2 . 0 44 1 2 . 0 45 1 2 . 0 46 1 2 . 0 47 1 6 . 0 48 1 7 . 8 49 1 8 . 0 1950 2 1 . 8 51 2 7 . 7 52 1 0 . 8 Source: Livestock and Animal Product Sta-t i s t i c s 1 9 5 2 , (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1953) Table 1 0 2 ; I 9 4 3 — Table 111 , p. 6 5 ; 1939 - Table 1 3 0 , p. 7 8 . TABLE 29 AVERAGE PRICE OF GOOD STEERS TO THE FARMER AND THE WHOLESALE PRICE OF BEEF CARCASS GOOD STEERS, VANCOUVER, 1951-1953 Date Price beef carcass good steer per cwt, Average price of good steers to the farmer Farm price as per cent of wholesale price 1951 January February March A p r i l May June July August September October November December 1952 January February March A p r i l May June July August September October November December 19J1 January February March A p r i l May June July August September October November December 53-00 55.00 56.00 55-00 55-00 57.50 57.00 55-00 59.00 58.50 59-50. 58.50 57-50 51.00 59-00 48.00 41 • 50 44-00 44-50 44-00 42-50 38.50 m°0 40.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 37-00 38.00 35-00 35-00 33-00 31.00 28.00 30.00 29.56 31.77 32.46 32.67 32.62 32.52 33-51 32.04 33.13 33.35 31.92 32.58 31.30 29.00 30.24 21T26 22.99 23.42 24.86 22.09 21.16 21.24 22.54 22.50 19-62 19.92 19-46 18.71 18.52 17-08 18 . 0 2 18.87 18.06 17-88 18.00 55.77 57.76 57.96 59.40 59.31 56.56 58.79 58.25 56.15 57.01 53.65 55.69 54.43 56.86 51.25 5l l23 52.25 52.63 56.50 51.98 54.96 m 55.75 53.03 55.33 54.05 50.57 48! Vt 51.49 57.18 58.26 63.86 60.00 Sources: 1. Livestock and Animal Product S t a t i s t i c s , 1952. (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) 1953, p. 27; Ibid. 1951 p. 28. Quarterly B u l l e t i n of Agri -c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Department of A g r i -culture) 1953. 2. Livestock and Meat Trade Report (Ottawa, De-pa rtrnlsnT~o!:~Al£rTc^^ -13S--TABLE 30 LIVE HOG AND CATTLE PRICES, 1933-1952 Hogs Average Year p r i c e per L i v e weight 100 l b s . p r i c e ! 'at Toronto equivalent A'verage price Toronto steer at Toronto of price as per good steers cent of Toronto over 1,050 lb. Hog price $ $ $ 1933 5.54 5-54 4.63 83.57 34 8.60 8.60 5.41 62.91 35 8.94 8.94 6.46 72.26 36 8.43 8.43 5.41 64.18 37 8.92 8.92 7.40 82.96 38 9-45 9.45 6.27 66.35 39 8.91 8.9I 6.89 77.33 1940 11.42 8.59 7.83 91.15 41 13.26 9.97 8.9O 89.27 42 15.69 11.80 10.39 88.05 43 16.8? 12.68 11.99 94.56 44 17.25 12.97 11.99 92.44 45 17-90 13.46 12.20 90.63 46 19-85 14.92 13.05 87-47 47 22.04 16.57 14.63 88.29 48 29.96 22.53 19.40 86.11 49 30.20 22.71 21.29 93.75 1950 28.98 21.79 26.72 122.62 51 32.85 24.69 33.19 134.42 52 25.70 19.32 25.85 133.80 Prices for 1933-1939 refer to bacon hogs. Prices f o r 1940-1952 refer to Bl Dressed. The l a t t e r were converted to l i v e weight equivalent on basis 1:1.33. Source: L-vestock and Animal Product S t a t i s t i c s , (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) . -138-TABLE 31 RETAIL FEED PRICES IN THE FRASER VALLEY, 1930-1953 w . »T Index of _ J _ Index of Year M ^ e d Hay M ± x e d H _ Ground Barley G r o u n d B a r l (per ton) ( 1 9 3 5 _ 3 9 = 1 0 0 ) (per cwt.) (1935.39 = 100) 1930 24.OO 129.1 1.90 116.6 31 21.70 116.7 1.44 88.3 32 18.00 96.8 •1.46 89.6 33 - - 1.31 80.4 34 - - 1.44 88.3 35 18.00 96.8 1.48 90.8 36 22.00 118.3 1.62 99.4 37 17.50 94.1 2.08 127.6 38 16.70 89.8 1.64 100.6 39 18.75 100.9 1.32 81.0 1940 16.00 86.1 1.34 82.2 41 14.75 79.3 1.54 94-5 42 18.10 97.4 1.53 .93-9 43 23.70 127.5 • 1.58 96.9 44 26.00 139.9 1.60 98.2 45' 26.00 139.9 1.63 100.0 46 26.00 139.9 1.65 ' 101.2 47 26.00 139.9 1.88 115.3 48 29.00 156.0 2.90 177-9 49 33.70 181.3 3.07 188.3 1950 32.00 172.1 3.31 203 .1 51 36.70 197.4 3.40 208.6 52 41.00 220.5 3.28 201.2 53 27.50 147.9 3 .00 184-0 Sources: Records of the Surrey Co-operative Association. Cloverdale, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1954. TABLE 3 2 WESTERN CANADA, PRICE INDEX NUMBERS OF COMMODITIES AND SERVICES USED BY FARMERS, 1930-1952 (1935-39 = 100) Year Farm Building machinery materials Feed F e r t i l i z e r Tax and interest rate Farm wage rates Gasoline o i l and grease Hardware 1930 97.2 101.8 103.5 114.1 1 3 3 . 4 158.1 110.4 101.3 31 95.0 88.3 72.3 1 0 6 . 9 121.8 112.8 102.7 101.5 32 94.3 80.1 71.6 93.5 116.7 88.3 108.1 100.2 33 92.3 84.9 73.0 95.5 104.4 81.7 104.7 93.3 34 94.9 87.5 85.0 98.2 102.3 84.9 109.1 95.3 35 95.5 87.1 88.0 96.7 100.6 90.2 1 0 6 . 3 96.0 36 97.6 97.3 97.8 100.0 97.7 95.5 104.7 96.5 37 97.0 108.7 130.8 100.0 97.4 99.7 99.6 102.8 38 103.7 98.7 104.6 102.0 101.9 104.8 95.6 103.7 39 103.3 108.1 78.7 . 101.3 102.7 109.9 93.9 101.0 1940 105.5 116.0 86.6 101.3 104.9 132.0 92.7 108.5 41 108.8 128.0 91.6 103.5 107.1 158.4 98.8 111.4 42 114.1 147.9 1 0 6 . 7 103.6 108.8 211.4 105.4 121.4 43 117.1 154.0 . 123.1 102.8 111.9 2 6 4 . 0 105.5 121.8 44 118.4 173.3 132.4 102.7 118.0 285 .0 105.5 121.4 45 115.2 175.7 133-8 102.7 122.1 308.3 105.3 120.6 46 118.8 175.5 135.8 102.7 131.2 317.2 108.7 120.6 47 126.4 188.5 148.4 104.7 136.0 338.2 114.6 130.1 48 141.8 234.1 205.0 115.9 142.5 368.0 130.2 152.9 49 158.4 250.6 217.6 1 2 5 . 5 149.4 380.1 . 131.6 1 6 6 . 6 1950 165.6 280.2 2 2 9 . 6 131.9 155.4 380.6 137.1 170.0 51 187.4 326.8 2 3 9 . 4 154.1 160.2 4 2 2 . 5 136.4 189.7 52 196.2 3 3 2 . 4 244.2 163 .1 169.0 457.9 137.8 209.4 Source: Prices and Price Indices, 1949-1952. (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) pp. 95, 98, and 104. -INS-TABLE 33 SUPPLIES AND CONSUMPTION OF FEED GRAINS PER GRAIN.CONSUMING ANIMAL UNIT 1CANADA, 1941-1954 (1936-1937 to 1940-1941 = 100) Date Gross supply per grain-consuming animal unit Net Grain supply Index consumed Index per of net per of grain animal supply animal consumed u n i t 2 unit tons tons tons 1941-42 0.61 0.53 100.0 0.60 113.2 42-43 1.09 0.91 171.7 0.82 154.7 43-44 0.91 0.76 143.4 . 0.74 139.6 44-45 0.85 0.67 126.4 0.66 124.5 45-46 0.72 0.60 113.2 0.60 113.2 46-47 0.81 0.68 128.3 0.70 132.1 47-48 0.64 0.54 101.9 O.56 105.7 48-49 0.87 0.70 132.1 0.68 128.3 49-50 0.77 0.60 113.2 0.60 113.2 50-51 1.02 0.80 150.9 0.72 135.8 51-52 1.36 1.02 192.5 0.91. 171.7.3 52-53 1.40 1.01 190.6 0.803 150.93 53-543 1.45 1.08 203.8 -Equivalent i n consumption of grain to one average milk cow i n a year, i . e . - horses 1.4, milk cows 1.0, other c a t t l e .51, hogs .87, sheep .4, poultry .045. Gross supply less exports, seed requirements and other domestic non-feed uses. Excludes wheat. 3 Preliminary. Sources: Quarterly B u l l e t i n of A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s . (Ot-tawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) , October-Decem-ber 1953, p. 216; October-December 1952, p. 250; October-December 1951, p. 260; Vol. 43, No. 4, 1950, p. 224-5. TABLE 34 INDEX NUMBERS OF WHOLESALE PRICES OF CANADIAN FARM PRODUCTS, 1930-1953 (1935-1939 = 100)  Year A l l animal products Live-stock Meats-fresh O i l s and fats Total vegetable products Grains Hay (Timothy) General wholesale index Consumer price index Total farm products 1930 132.0 135.2 141.8 133.1 106.6 99.2 159.6 112.9 75.3 119.5 31 98.4 92.2 96.8 89.1 78.1 61.1 142.1 94.0 67.9 78.9 32 79.5 74.3 77.1 75.9 75.3 59.1 105.6 86.9 61.7 65.5 33 79.1 67.1 70.6 83.0 81.4 66.6 116.5 87.4 58.8 69.3 34 89.5 84.2 83 .0 88.2 91.5 82.6 149.5 93.4 59.6 83.5 35 94.9 95.7 92.1 116.9 92.9 89.2 118.3 94.4 59.9 89.2 36 96.0 90.9 89.8 105.4 98.8 99.6 88.2 96.8 61.1 97.9 37 105 .6 106.6 105.2 114.0 118.6 138.9 94.8 107.7 63.0 117.4 38 102.6 102.6 105.2 87.6 100.5 102.5 103 .2 102.0 63.7 102.9 39 100.6 104.1 107.8 75.6 89.1 70.5 95.5 99.2 63.2 92.6 1940 106.1 109-9 112.6 70.3 98.1 84.0 128.4 108.0 65.7 96.1 41 123 .8 126.9 131.1 97.4 106.1 . 85.7 170.1 116.4 69.6 106.6 42 137.1 150.3 145.8 119-9 114.9 97.1 233.2 123.0 72.9 127.1 43 146.9 166.3 160.7 132.6 123.5 118.5 167.2 127.9 74.2 145.4 44 146.6 165.4 162.8 123.2 129.1 134.0 197.8 130.6 74.6 155.3 45 150.0 170.4 163.8 130.9 131.6 134.9 224.4 132.1 75.0 166.4 46 160.2 183-9 170.8 138.3 134.2 135.7 173.5 138.9 77.5 179.5 47 183.0 204.7 185.1 188.8 157.3 167.7 205.5 163.3 84.8 192.2 • 48 236.7 281.1 274.9 228.3 185.7 200.7 251.1 193.4 97.0 232.1 49 237.5 296.9 297.6 145.6 190.5 218.6 280.2 198.3 100.0 228.7 1950 251.3 334.1 337.7 151.3 202.0 219.4 330.6 211.2 102.9 236.7 51 297.7 407.8 423.1 199.6 218.6 217.3 250.1 240.2 113.7 268.6 52 248.2 316.4 343.5 103.2 210.3 206.2 196.8 226.0 116.5 250.2 53 241.7 288.1 292.5 133.4 199.0 201.0 - 220.7 115.5 219.5 1 Basis 1949 = 100-Source: Prices and Price Index. 1949-1952, (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s ) pp. 24, 26, 20, 52, 110-11, 18. Also, July 1954. BIBLIOGRAPHY Breimyer, H. F., "Forecasting Annual Cattle Slaughter," Journal of Farm Economics, Vol. XXXIV, No. 3, 1952. , l e t t e r to t.he writer, A p r i l 20, 1954-Brink, V. C. and Farstad, L., "The Physiography of the A g r i c u l t u r a l Area's of B r i t i s h Columbia," S c i e n t i f i c Agriculture, Vol. 29, No. 6, June 1949. s / Canada Department of Agriculture, Commercial Livestock Output Report, Vol. 21-23, Ottawa, Department of Agriculture. __, Livestock and Meat Trade Report, Vol. 11-35, Ottawa, Department of Agriculture. , The Livestock Market Re-view, Ottawa, Department of Agriculture, 1930-1953. , Report of the Minister of Agriculture for Canada for the Year Ended March 31, 1952, Ottawa, Queen's Printer, 1952. , S t a t i s t i c a l Information Relating to the Freight Assistance Policy for  Eastern Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia, Ottawa, Department of Agriculture, Sept. 1954. Clawson, M., Western Range Livestock Industry, New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1950. Chown, W. F., Hudson, S. C. and Lewis, J. M., The Direct Marketing of Livestock. Ottawa, Department of Agriculture, November 1941. Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Handbook of A g r i c u l t u r a l Sta-t i s t i c s , reference paper No. 25, Part II, Ot-tawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1952. , Canada Year Book, 1954, Ottawa Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s . , Farm Cash Income. 1953, Ottawa Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s . -140--14!-Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Index of Farm Production, 1953» Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, May 1954. ', Livestock and Animal Product Statistics, Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Statist-ics, 1920-1952. . , Livestock Survey, Cattle, July 1954, Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Statistics. , Monthly Bulletin of Agricul-tural Statistics, Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1932-1940. , Ninth Census of Canada, 1951, Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1953* , Population of Canada by Prov-inces, June 1, 1954, Ottawa, "Dominion Bureau of Statistic s. > , Prices and Price Indexes, 1949 -1952; Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Statistics. , Quarterly Bulletin of Agricul-tural Statistics, Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1941-1954. Dowell, A. A. and Bjorka, K., Livestock Marketing, New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1941. Ensminger, M. E., Animal Science, Danville, I l l i n o i s , The Interstate Printers and Publishers, 1950. , The Farm Quarterly, Cincinnati, Ohio, Auto-mobile Digest Publishing Corporation, 1952, Vol. 7, No. 4 . The Industrial and Development Council of Canadian Meat Pack-ers, A Letter on Canadian Livestock Products. Toronto, Council of Canadian Meat Packers. Malone, C. C., How to Make Your Farm Pay, Iowa State College Press, 1950. Morrison, F. B., Feeds and Feeding. Ithaca, New York, Morrison Publishing Co., 1949. -142-The Nation Advisory Beef Committee, The P r a c t i c a b i l i t y of Sel-l i n g Cattle by Carcass Grade and Weight, Ottawa, Department of Agriculture, March 1942. Pendray, W. C , l e t t e r to the writer, June 11, 1954. Sampon, A..W., Range and Pasture Management, New York, Wiley and Sons, 1930. Schrader, F, M., The Demand for Meat i n Canada, Ottawa, De-partment of Agriculture, July 1953. , "The Demand for Meat i n Canada," Canadian Journal of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1953-Shepherd, G. S., Marketing Farm Products, Ames, Iowa State College Press, 1949. Snapp, R. R., Beef Cattle, New York, Wiley and Sons, 4th ed., 1952. Surrey Cooperative Association, Feed Price Records, Clover-dale, B r i t i s h Columbia. Tisdale, E. W., Maclean, A., and Clarke, S. E., "Range Re-sources and Their Management i n B r i t i s h Colum-bia , " Journal of Range Management, Vol. 7, No. 1, Jan. 1954. , "Grazing of Forest Lands i n Interior B r i t i s h Columbia," Journal of Forestry, Vol. 48, No. 12, 1950. United States Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Meat Situation, Washington, Department of Agr i c u l t u r e . Vrooman, C. W., The Economics of the Beef Cattle Situation i n  B r i t i s h Columbia. Ottawa, Department of A g r i -culture, 1936. Wood, A. J., Kansky, L., and Bradshaw, R., Beef B u l l Research  Project 1953-54, Vancouver, Department of Ex-tension, The University of B r i t i s h Columbia. Woollam, G. E., The Influence of Prices on the Relative Con-sumption of Beef and Pork, Ottawa, Department of Agriculture, June 1953. 

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