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An analysis of forest fire-control standards Kun, Stephen Frank Peter 1958

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AN ANALYSIS OF FOREST FIRE-CONTROL STANDARDS by Stephen Frank Kun B.S.F., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia,  1955  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF FORESTRY i n the Department of Forestry  We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the r e q u i r e d standard  MEMBERS OF THE FACULTY OF FORESTRY  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA April,  1958  ii ABSTRACT Through the use o f standards the f i r e - c o n t r o l problem can be d i v i d e d  i n t o i t s many phases, and  its  Fire-control  solution.  standards f a l l i n t o two  (1) the o v e r a l l f i r e - c o n t r o l o b j e c t i v e , met  i n attaining  specifications  that o b j e c t i v e .  and  set f o r  classes,  ( 2 ) standards to be  The former, or primary  standards, serve to keep the v a r i o u s phases o f f i r e - c o n t r o l at the most economically j u s t i f i a b l e l e v e l . secondary  standards, ensure  form with the primary  The l a t t e r , or  t h a t a l l f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t s con?  standards.  A f u l l schedule of f i r e - c o n t r o l standards i s p r e s e n t ed. A system f o r a s s e s s i n g p r e s u p p r e s s i o n and f i r s t presented i n 1932,  was  t i o n as a c u r r e n t secondary  revised  suppression,  and e l a b o r a t e d f o r a p p l i c a -  standard.  The p r i n c i p a l f e a t u r e o f  t h i s system i s that c e r t a i n s p e c i f i c a t i o n s must be met  by  the  many phases o f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n and p r e v e n t i o n e f f o r t s b e f o r e a numerical r a t i n g scale of rating  indicating  A different  should be set up f o r each f i r e - c o n t r o l u n i t ,  depending on the purposes o f the f i r e  adequacy i s o b t a i n e d .  o f f o r e s t management and  the nature  hazard.  Fire-control  standards were analyzed from a  cal  p o i n t o f view and a new  ial  standard, was  primary  developed.  theoreti-  standard, c a l l e d the a c t u a r -  Data from three Ranger D i s t r i c t s  on Vancouver I s l a n d were s t u d i e d through the a c t u a r i a l assessment of past f i r e - c o n t r o l c o s t s and damage, past f i r e danger, and expected  trends.  I t was  found  that the a c t u a r i a l standard  was  iii the only one o f the three major standards  that provided  an  adequate a n a l y s i s of the f i r e - c o n t r o l problem on a g i v e n a r e a and produced r e a l i s t i c A new standard  secondary  standard, c a l l e d the l o c a l i n c e n t i v e  i s a l s o presented.  o f enthusiasm  results.  T h i s standard r e l i e s on the v a l u e  and p e r s o n a l i n c e n t i v e i n o b t a i n i n g good r e s u l t s  from f i r e - c o n t r o l employees.  D e a l i n g w i t h burned area,  standard e s t a b l i s h e s the a l l o w a b l e annual burn by  this  decreasing  the past average burned area by 10 per cent each year.  In presenting the  r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an  of B r i t i s h it  this  freely  agree that for  thesis in partial  advanced degree at the  Columbia, I agree that available  the  f o r r e f e r e n c e and  permission for extensive  s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may  D e p a r t m e n t o r by  fulfilment  be  s h a l l make  study.  I  the  gain  s h a l l not  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h V a n c o u v e r 8, C a n a d a . Date  April  10.  for  allowed without my written  Forestry  1958  Columbia,  Head o f  thesis my  I t i s understood  copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s  Department o f  further  copying of t h i s  that  be  University  Library  g r a n t e d by  his representative.  of  financial  permission.  iv PREFACE F o r e s t - f i r e c o n t r o l i s not a simple problem an easy s o l u t i o n can be s e t f o r t h . problem  The whole f i r e - c o n t r o l  i s an exceedingly complex group o f c l o s e l y  problems.  f o r which  related  Each must be i s o l a t e d arid a separate s o l u t i o n found  b e f o r e f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n s can guarantee  reasonable  success under every p o s s i b l e s e t o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s .  Through the  use o f f i r e - c o n t r o l standards, the f i r e - c o n t r o l problem  can be  s u b - d i v i d e d i n t o i t s many phases and s p e c i f i c a t i o n s s e t f o r i t s solution. T h i s study d e l v e s i n t o the e n t i r e f i e l d o f f i r e c o n t r o l standards.  A l l the a v a i l a b l e knowledge i s organized and  presented to show the r e l a t i v e importance  o f the many standards.  At the same time some new, more a p p l i c a b l e , standards a r e presented.  Problems i n the a p p l i c a t i o n o f a l l standards a r e  p o i n t e d out and recommendations are made f o r reducing or e l i m i n a t i n g these  difficulties.  The author wishes  to express s i n c e r e thanks  those who a s s i s t e d i n conducting the study. Moyes, Jack Turner, Ray G i l l , Columbia  Messrs.  to a l l Eric  and Don Owen o f the B r i t i s h  F o r e s t S e r v i c e and Mr. G.T. Hatcher, D i r e c t o r o f the  Bureau o f Economics and S t a t i s t i c s provided many o f the b a s i c data, helped to e x t r a c t the p e r t i n e n t i n f o r m a t i o n , and c a r r i e d out some o f the c a l c u l a t i o n s . reviewed  Dean G.S. A l l e n and Dr. J.W. Ker  the paper and c o n t r i b u t e d many h e l p f u l s u g g e s t i o n s .  The author i s p a r t i c u l a r l y indebted to Dr. J.H.G. Smith and  Mr. I.e.  MacQueen f o r t h e i r continuous i n t e r e s t ,  encourage-  ment and help w h i l e t h i s study was i n p r o g r e s s .  Vancouver, B.C. April, 1958  S.F. Kun  vi  TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Page 1  INTRODUCTION  5  LITERATURE REVIEW F i r e - C o n t r o l Planning Prevention Planning P r e s u p p r e s s i o n Planning S u p p r e s s i o n Planning F i r e - C o n t r o l Standards Minimum-Cost O b j e c t i v e Area Burned Maximum Acceptable F i r e S i z e E l a p s e d Time Discovery Report Get-away Travel Control Mop-up Patrol 1 0 : 0 0 A.M. P o l i c y  5 8 10 12 i h 16 18 23 2k 2h 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 32  OUTLINE OF FIRE-CONTROL STANDARDS Primary Standards Actuarial Economic Secondary Standards Suppression Area Burned A l l o w a b l e Annual Burn Maximum A c c e p t a b l e F i r e S i z e Maximum Number o f F i r e s Local Incentive E l a p s e d Time Discovery Report Get-away Travel Control 1 0 : 0 0 A.M. P o l i c y Mop-up Patrol Water on Operations 0  3*+ 3*+ 36 38 38 38 39 kh kh h5 *+7 *f8 *+9 50 51 52 53 53 5k  Presuppression Detection Communication Transportation Manpower Equipment Facilities I n f o r m a t i o n Planning Prevention Specific General A TEST OF MAJOR STANDARDS  55 57 57 58 58 60 6l 62 6*+ 6*+ 66  67  The Study Area 67 A c t u a r i a l Standard 67 Cost o f S u p p r e s s i o n and Damage 69 ( B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e ) P r e s u p p r e s s i o n Overhead ( B r i t i s h 70 Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e ) T o t a l Cost o f P r e s u p p r e s s i o n and 71 S u p p r e s s i o n ( A l l Agencies) Per Cent o f R i s k Days 71 Number o f F i r e s 72 Population 72 Conversion to 19*+9 "Constant D o l l a r " 72 Analysis 73 Number o f F i r e s 75 75 Per Cent o f R i s k Days 76 Population P r e s u p p r e s s i o n Overhead ( B r i t i s h 77 Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e ) 78 Cost o f S u p p r e s s i o n and Damage ( B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e ) T o t a l Cost o f P r e s u p p r e s s i o n and 79 S u p p r e s s i o n ( A l l Agencies) Study o f Trends 80 80 Discussion 81 S e t t i n g the O b j e c t i v e 82 P r e s u p p r e s s i o n Expenditure Area Burned 83 F i r e - C o n t r o l Standards f o r 1958 8k Economic Standard 85 88 Area Burned Summary and Comparison o f R e s u l t s 90 CONCLUSION  9k  APPENDIX  96  BIBLIOGRAPHY  99  viii  LIST OF TABLES Page  Table 1  Acceptable Average Annual Burned Area, Per United S t a t e s F o r e s t S e r v i c e  Cent,  hi  Table 2  A c c e p t a b l e Average Annual Burned Area, Per F e d e r a l F o r e s t r y Branch, Canada  Cent,  h2  Table 3  F i r e S t a t i s t i c s f o r Southeast  Table h  T o t a l "Constant D o l l a r " F i r e - C o n t r o l Expenditures by F i v e - Y e a r P e r i o d s  Vancouver I s l a n d  LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS  Figure 1  L o c a t i o n o f study area on Vancouver I s l a n d  68  Figure 2  A c t u a r i a l method f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r e - c o n t r o l standards  7h  Figure 3  Economic theory method f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r e c o n t r o l standards  87  AN ANALYSIS OF FOREST FIRE-CONTROL STANDARDS  INTRODUCTION Complete e x c l u s i o n o f f i r e from f o r e s t s i s r a r e l y attainable.  F i r e s o r i g i n a t e from both human and n a t u r a l  causes, the former predominating i n most p a r t s o f Canada. F i r e s from n a t u r a l causes are i n e v i t a b l e , and e l i m i n a t i o n o f man-caused f i r e s , however d e s i r a b l e , cannot be a n t i c i p a t e d e i t h e r i n the f o r e s t o r urban l o c a l i t i e s .  Occupancy and use o f  f o r e s t p r o p e r t y i n v o l v e s l e g i t i m a t e use o f f i r e , and some f i r e s w i l l escape through c a r e l e s s n e s s , n e g l i g e n c e , o r i n t e n t .  There-  f o r e , i n the management o f f o r e s t s , p r o v i s i o n must be made t o prevent unnecessary f i r e s from s t a r t i n g , and to c o n t r o l those that do s t a r t . The degree o f p r o t e c t i o n a f f o r d e d a g a i n s t depends on the purposes o f f o r e s t management.  fires  Where timber  p r o d u c t i o n i s the o b j e c t , i t i s obvious that a degree o f protection sufficient or  to prevent s e r i o u s r e d u c t i o n o f the y i e l d  v a l u e o f the crop, must be assured throughout the timber  rotation.  On watershed a r e a s , p r o t e c t i o n must adequately s a f e -  guard the dependent  investment throughout i t s l i f e .  Kotok,  K e l l e y , and Evans (1933) s t a t e d that i n r e c r e a t i o n a l a r e a s , where f i r e s may d e s t r o y unique v a l u e s , a h i g h degree o f p r o t e c t i o n must be permanently a s s u r e d , even though the o t h e r r e s o u r c e v a l u e s might warrant l e s s i n t e n s i v e p r o t e c t i o n .  Forest-fire  c o n t r o l i s a l s o an e s s e n t i a l f a c t o r i n the maintenance o f proper environmental c o n d i t i o n s f o r w i l d l i f e which, i n one form o r  2 another, i n h a b i t s The  a l l forest  first  lands.  step i n a t t a i n i n g  adequate f i r e - c o n t r o l  i s the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of o b j e c t i v e s .  These o b j e c t i v e s  be  standards that  translated  i n t o d e f i n i t e goals or  should  can  be  used to o b t a i n adequate f i r e - c o n t r o l through proper a d m i n i s t r a tion.  Perfect  f i r e - c o n t r o l would r e s u l t i n the  elimination  of  a l l f i r e l o s s e s — w h i c h i s i m p r a c t i c a b l e , however, s i n c e economic c o n s i d e r a t i o n s make i t necessary to accept as adequate something l e s s than p e r f e c t i o n . Control"  D e t e r m i n a t i o n o f "Adequate F o r e s t - f i r e -  i s e s s e n t i a l l y an economic problem.  It is  possible  to a t t a i n a degree of f i r e - c o n t r o l beyond which there i s  no  j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r the  of  protection* g i v e no  At  expenditure of money f o r t h i s type  t h i s p o i n t a d o l l a r spent on f i r e - c o n t r o l w i l l  more than a d o l l a r ' s worth of reduced f i r e damage. An  o v e r a l l standard f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l i s c a l l e d a  primary standard.  This o b j e c t i v e  serves to keep the  phases of f i r e - c o n t r o l at the most economically level.  Once e s t a b l i s h e d ,  justified  a l l f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t s must be  concert w i t h i t s s p e c i f i c a t i o n s .  This i s best ensured  setting  secondary standards to c o n t r o l  zation,  and  function  various  of each of the  in  by  the development, o r g a n i -  many phases o f f o r e s t  fire-  control. F o r e s t managers b e n e f i t the  use  and  i n a variety  of ways from  attainment of standards f o r adequate f i r e - c o n t r o l .  F i r s t , a f o r e s t p r o p e r t y , as an investment, i s ensured maximum j u s t i f i a b l e p r o t e c t i o n  of  a g a i n s t l o s s through damage by  3 fire.  T h i s i s important s i n c e an unprotected investment i s  exposed to decreased v a l u e and Increased f i n a n c i a l ; r i s k . Above a l l ,  a c a r e f u l i n v e s t o r i n s i s t s upon s u r e t y o f r e t u r n on  his capital.  Primary  standards a l s o serve as b a s i s f o r compar-  i n g d i f f e r e n t areas and o r g a n i z a t i o n s , and past and f i r e - c o n t r o l performance.  present  By t h i s means they measure e f f e c t i v e -  ness and e f f i c i e n c y of the f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n .  Secondary  standards have been e s t a b l i s h e d and used as d e v i c e s to a i d f i r e c o n t r o l planners i n promoting toward  the proper amount o f e f f o r t  a t t a i n i n g the primary o b j e c t i v e .  These standards w i t h i n  standards help to a l l o c a t e expenditure to the v a r i o u s phases o f fire-control.  Another b e n e f i t obtained from standards f o r f i r e -  c o n t r o l i s t h e i r p s y c h o l o g i c a l v a l u e f o r s e t t i n g up a c h a l l e n g e , thereby i n c i t i n g enthusiasm forces.  and  initiative in fire-control  MacQueen (19k6) observed  that an o r g a n i z a t i o n would  stagnate and l o s e d e s i r e f o r self-improvement  i f no p r o g r e s s i v e  o b j e c t i v e s were e s t a b l i s h e d f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l .  The e f f e c t s would  be noted i n lower e f f i c i e n c y , l o s s of morale, and a tendency cover up mistakes, thus h a l t i n g  to  Improvement.  The p r o t e c t i o n g i v e n a f o r e s t p r o p e r t y by a f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n should reduce the l o s s e s , but i t cannot p r o v i d e r e imbursement f o r l o s s i n c u r r e d because o f f i r e s . i n s u r a n c e serves to cover t h i s l o s s .  Insurance  Forest-fire should take  over at a p o i n t where money spent f o r i n s u r a n c e premiums i s a b e t t e r investment  than an e q u i v a l e n t amount spent f o r the support  o f the f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n . However, f o r e s t - f i r e ance i s not a v a i l a b l e i n a l l c o u n t r i e s and a r e a s .  insur-  T h i s poses  If some f a r - r e a c h i n g problems i n determining the amount o f e x t r a f i r e - c o n t r o l that should be a f f o r d e d i n the absence o f i n s u r a n c e protection. Two main o b j e c t i v e s were c o n s i d e r e d i n undertaking t h i s study.  F i r s t , i t was d e s i r e d to i n v e s t i g a t e p o s s i b l e means  o f determining how much money can j u s t i f i a b l y be spent f o r f i r e control.  The second o b j e c t i v e was to p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r the  proper d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e p r o t e c t i o n funds and e f f o r t among the d i f f e r e n t  units of a fire-control organization.  T h i s study p r e s e n t s a review o f the l i t e r a t u r e , l i n e s the f i r e - c o n t r o l standards that e x i s t ,  out-  presents proposals  f o r standards, d i s c u s s e s the d e t e r m i n a t i o n and use o f each, and assesses the a p p l i c a b i l i t y and e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f three major standards.  5  LITERATURE REVIEW F i r e - C o n t r o l Planning Fire-control  standards are an important  part of  p l a n n i n g , j u s t as f i r e - c o n t r o l plans are important p r a c t i c e of f i r e - c o n t r o l .  One  to the whole  should not be c o n s i d e r e d without  the other i f a l l phases are to appear i n t h e i r proper tive.  Consequently,  f i r e - c o n t r o l planning i s f i r s t  Fire-control  perspec-  reviewed.  p l a n n i n g has been d e f i n e d as the  s y s t e m a t i c t e c h n o l o g i c a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e management process involved i n designing organizations, f a c i l i t i e s ,  and  procedures  to p r o t e c t w i l d lands from f i r e , w i l d lands being any not under c u l t i v a t i o n (1937)  lands  (U.S.D.A., F o r e s t S e r v i c e , 1 9 5 6 ) .  Granger  emphasized t h a t the present stage of p l a n n i n g simply  i n v o l v e s e x t e n s i o n and refinement o f f i r e - c o n t r o l p l a n s to a s t a t e now  p o s s i b l e and l o g i c a l .  Planning i s a  continuous  process to which v a r y i n g degrees o f emphasis and a t t e n t i o n are g i v e n at d i f f e r e n t  times.  Gowen ( 1 9 3 7 )  called  planning a  method of f i r e - c o n t r o l a c t i o n r e q u i r i n g repeated  proposed  revision.  The need f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l plans i s g e n e r a l l y accepted but seldom expressed, however, Kun  (1957)  said:  A good f i r e - c o n t r o l r e c o r d can be sadly marred by one bad f i r e season when everyt h i n g seems to go wrong. I t i s by means o f the f i r e - c o n t r o l p l a n that we can expect to minimize the wrongs that are a n t i c i p a t e d . R e f e r r i n g to f i r e - c o n t r o l plans i n N a t i o n a l Parks i n Canada, Kun noted t h a t In many parks, the number o f amount o f equipment, d i v e r s i t y  of f a c i l i t i e s ,  men,  and v a r i e t y  of  6 f i r e - c o n t r o l problems become complex beyond grasp o f any man.  one  The f i r e p l a n remedies t h i s s i t u a t i o n by c o n s o l i d a t i n g  a l l known i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l .  In a d d i t i o n ,  w i t h p e r i o d i c t r a n s f e r s o f p e r s o n n e l , the complete z a t i o n o f any  i n d i v i d u a l w i t h any  cannot serve him  indefinitely.  one  l o c a l e and  familiari-  fire  problem,  Therefore, a l l i n f o r m a t i o n  should be i n w r i t t e n form so that i t can be a v a i l a b l e to the park's  a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and passed on to newcomers, p e r m i t t i n g  persons new of  to the area to o b t a i n immediately  the f i r e p o t e n t i a l and  a complete p i c t u r e  the f i r e - f i g h t i n g f a c i l i t i e s  F i r e - c o n t r o l plans can serve more than one  available.  s p e c i f i c purpose,  depending on e x i s t i n g needs. The b a s i s f o r p l a n n i n g f i r e - c o n t r o l has been c o n s i d e r e d i n both a general and a s p e c i f i c manner.  Working on the  general  a s p e c t s of p l a n n i n g , the U n i t e d S t a t e s F o r e s t S e r v i c e i n the Southeastern  S t a t e s has developed  a b a s i s f o r planning  a s s e s s i n g the success o f f i r e - c o n t r o l i n a g i v e n area 1957).  and (Brown,  The measure used Is the d i f f e r e n c e between the a c t u a l  number of f i r e s o c c u r r i n g , and occur as a r e s u l t o f burning  the number o f f i r e s expected  conditions.  The  to  comparison i s  d e r i v e d from known c o r r e l a t i o n s between f i r e danger r a t i n g s and the occurrence of  of f i r e s .  T h i s assessment o f the e f f e c t i v e n e s s  f i r e - p r e v e n t i o n a c t i v i t i e s and of the e f f i c i e n c y of  fire-  c o n t r o l e f f o r t , serves as a p r o g r e s s i v e b a s i s f o r p l a n n i n g it  i s based on p r o b a b i l i t i e s .  Burning  p o t e n t i a l , based  since  on  weather i n f l u e n c e s i s the f o u n d a t i o n f o r the scheme, dependent upon the accuracy  o f the f i r e - d a n g e r r a t i n g  system.  7  Show and others for  planning  pre-planning  ( l ^ D established a specific  i n Southern C a l i f o r n i a N a t i o n a l F o r e s t s .  basis This  work assembled a l l the problems o f f i r e - c o n t r o l  i n an a n a l y t i c a l manner and determined from them the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s required f o r a f i r e - c o n t r o l organization.  These e s t a b l i s h -  ed c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are a c t u a l l y f i r e - c o n t r o l standards f o r planning,  expressed i n a s p e c i f i c way without f i n a n c i a l  a t i o n s as b a s i s .  The work showed c o n s i d e r a b l e  consider-  f o r e s i g h t , because  w i t h past performance as r e f e r e n c e , a s c a l e f o r f u t u r e expected a c t i o n was o u t l i n e d . The  " F o r e s t r y Handbook" ( S o c i e t y o f American F o r e s t e r s ,  1956) d i v i d e s the job o f p l a n n i n g  into:  prevention; presuppression; suppression. These w i l l be used as o u t l i n e f o r the review o f planning  presented  here.  8 P r e v e n t i o n Planning C a l l a g h a n (1957) observed  that most people  considered  f i r e p r e v e n t i o n a mass e d u c a t i o n a l program conducted present communication methods.  Of great value to the g e n e r a l  p u b l i c , t h i s program f r e q u e n t l y omits  the i n d i v i d u a l r e s p o n s i -  b i l i t y o f the r e g u l a r users o f w i l d l a n d s , and employees.  through  of f i r e - c o n t r o l  S i n c e as many, i f not more f i r e s are s t a r t e d  by  r e g u l a r f o r e s t users, than by the o c c a s i o n a l woods t r a v e l l e r , means must be d e v i s e d to p l a c e a c e r t a i n onus on the C a l l a g h a n thought  former.  that t h i s s i t u a t i o n c o u l d be p a r t l y remedied  by p u t t i n g f i r e crews to work on p r e v e n t i v e measures and on f o r e s t u s e r s , r a t h e r than simply "standing-by" fight  checking  i n r e a d i n e s s to  fire. Matthews and M o r r i s (19^2) s t a t e d that h i g h - r i s k areas,  o r areas i n which f i r e s are l i k e l y to s t a r t , should r e c e i v e special consideration. l o c a l i t i e s are l i k e l y i t may  be prudent  suppression. cause and,  The  i m p l i c a t i o n here i s that i f c e r t a i n  to have c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o f man-caused  to concentrate on p r e v e n t i o n r a t h e r than weak  Methods f o r p r e v e n t i o n w i l l depend on.probable  thoughts  and h a b i t s o f people who  h i g h r i s k area should be c o n s i d e r e d and determine p r e v e n t i o n technique.  s t a r t them.  Each  I f f i r e s s t a r t as a r e s u l t  should be taken to provide a p p r o p r i a t e e d u c a t i o n and o f the need to be c a r e f u l w i t h f i r e .  of  steps frequent  If fires  set w i t h i n t e n t i o n of s e r i o u s spread or damage, law is indicated.  fire  s t u d i e d s e p a r a t e l y to  c a r e l e s s n e s s , or l a c k of knowledge o f f i r e behaviour,  reminders  fires  are  enforcement  9 Hazard r e d u c t i o n through removal o f f a s t  burning  f u e l s i n dangerous areas i s always good p r e v e n t i o n . (19*+6) suggested  that work o f t h i s type be supplemented by a  thorough understanding  of hazard  cannot be economically removed.  c o n d i t i o n s that are not or For t h i s purpose, f i r e danger  r a t i n g s should be a c c u r a t e l y determined, for  Fraser  and  actions specified  the v a r i o u s degrees o f danger must be complied  with  promptly. A s u i t a b l e scheme f o r p l a n n i n g f o r e s t f i r e  prevention  has been used by the Crown Z e l l e r b a c h C o r p o r a t i o n ( P a t t e r s o n , 1955).  T h i s program c a l l s f o r the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f  a b l e f i r e cause, d e s c r i p t i o n o f means o f p r e v e n t i o n ,  preventand  d e s i g n a t i o n of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r p r e v e n t i o n . This review of past and  current l i t e r a t u r e  suggests  that e f f e c t i v e p r e v e n t i o n p l a n n i n g r e q u i r e s c a l c u l a t e d ment o f expected  importance o f preventable f i r e causes,  by i n i t i a t i o n of p r e v e n t a t i v e measures to minimize causes.  assess-  those  backed  10 Presuppression Planning According  to Stathem (195*+), p r e s u p p r e s s i o n  those f i r e - c o n t r o l a c t i v i t i e s concerned  Includes  w i t h the o r g a n i z a t i o n ,  t r a i n i n g , i n s t r u c t i o n and management o f a f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n to i n s u r e e f f e c t i v e f i r e s u p p r e s s i o n . (1937) observed  Gowen  that f i r e - c o n t r o l plans must c o n s i d e r both the  permanent and temporary elements o f f i r e danger.  The permanent  elements which may d i f f e r from p l a c e to p l a c e , are (1) normal occurrence r a t e o f f i r e s , and (2) f u e l types as determined by the r a t e o f spread and r e s i s t a n c e to c o n t r o l . The  temporary elements are those which vary from  to time, such as (1) abnormal occurrence o f f i r e s , and  (3) f u e l c o n d i t i o n , evaluated through  time  (2) weather,  r a t i n g f i r e danger.  The b a s i c elements to be considered i n p r e s u p p r e s s i o n p l a n n i n g are more s p e c i f i c a l l y l i s t e d  i n the " F o r e s t r y Handbook"  ( S o c i e t y o f American F o r e s t e r s , 1956) as being: Meteorological factors Topographic f a c t o r s Fuel factors Incidence o f f i r e s V i s i b i l i t y distance Accessibility R e l a t i v e values a t stake Rate o f p r o d u c t i o n o f h e l d f i r e - l i n e S u p p l i e s o f water f o r s u p p r e s s i o n Equipment . Communications R e c r u i t i n g and t r a i n i n g o f p e r s o n n e l . The  g r e a t e r p a r t o f t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s normally  contained i n a f i r e p l a n and a t l a s euch as the " F i r e - c o n t r o l p l a n f o r the Petawawa F o r e s t Experiment S t a t i o n " (Dominion F o r e s t S e r v i c e , 19*+8).  11 Because o f the r e l a t i v e i n s t a b i l i t y o f the above elements,  many o f which cannot be weighed by themselves,  Hand  (1953) p l a c e s the f i r e - c o n t r o l planner i n almost an i d e n t i c a l p o s i t i o n with the insurance a c t u a r y .  He maintains that the  planner's job i s to c a l c u l a t e the mathematical that c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s w i l l combinations  e x i s t as a r e s u l t o f c e r t a i n  o f the above s t a b l e and u n s t a b l e elements.  most a c t u a l p r a c t i c e , to date, mathematical not been made from the b a s i c data. o f f i c e r o r planner has used produce statements control  probabilities  In  c a l c u l a t i o n s have  Instead, the f i r e - c o n t r o l  i n t u i t i v e p e r s o n a l judgement to  o f probable f u t u r e f i r e i n c i d e n c e and f i r e -  requirements. A complete p r e s u p p r e s s i o n p l a n should develop s e v e r a l  s p e c i f i c advantages (Kun, 1957): (1)  p r o v i d e a complete, d e t a i l e d p i c t u r e o f the f i r e - c o n t r o l problem and f i r e - c o n t r o l f a c i l i t i e s  (2)  provide a means o f a s s e s s i n g i n d e t a i l , the adequacy o f f i r e - c o n t r o l f a c i l i t i e s , the e f f e c t of any proposed c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , o r changes i n o r g a n i z a t i o n o r the f i r e - c o n t r o l record  (3)  p r o v i d e a c u r r e n t p i c t u r e o f the f o r e s t - f i r e hazard and danger, and the s t a t e o f preparedness of the f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n  (*+) allow the d i s p a t c h e r to assess the probable s i z e of a f i r e b e f o r e a t t a c k , to assess the manpower and m a t e r i a l requirement, and to d i s p a t c h the r e q u i r e d follow-up personnel and equipment to a f i r e without w a i t i n g f o r a r e p o r t from the i n i t i a l a t t a c k crew (5)  a i d i n a t t a i n i n g e s t a b l i s h e d f i r e - c o n t r o l standards with a minimum o f unnecessary derangement o f organization routine.  12 Suppression  Planning  Boyle (1950) observed  that p r e s u p p r e s s i o n  and  s u p p r e s s i o n are so r e l a t e d that i f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n i s "well planned  and  e f f e c t i v e , there can be no c l e a r l y d e f i n e d p o i n t  where s u p p r e s s i o n planning begins and p r e s u p p r e s s i o n ends. S u p p r e s s i o n p l a n n i n g was  d e f i n e d by F o l w e i l e r and Brown (19*+6)  as that a c t i o n p r e s c r i b e d when a f i r e breaks taken a f t e r a f i r e program presented  i n presuppression plans.  However, the p r o individually,  m o d i f i c a t i o n s made to f i t the p l a n to the Planned  Any a c t i o n  s t a r t s should be based on a prototype  blems presented by each f i r e must be judged necessary  out.  and  situation.  actions f o r suppression generally consider:  Detection I n i t i a l attack D i s p a t c h i n g of manpower and s u p p l i e s Transportation F i r e camp l a y o u t F i r e crew r a t i o n s F i r e organization build-up Firefighting  techniques.  Matthews and M o r r i s (19 +2) observed 1  that f i r e s  f r e q u e n t l y burn beyond c o n t r o l because someone f a i l s to f o l l o w the best p r a c t i c e i n f i r e  suppression, or because he f o l l o w s  p r a c t i c e known to be u n d e s i r a b l e .  Use  should be mandatory on a l l small f i r e s .  of approved p r a c t i c e s I f the i n i t i a l o b j e c t i v e  i s not a t t a i n e d and a f i r e becomes so l a r g e that crews must be h i r e d i n a d d i t i o n t o l t h e r e g u l a r o r g a n i z a t i o n , a prearranged for  expansion  prevented  should be a v a i l a b l e .  i f such a p l a n i s prepared  C o s t l y o v e r s i g h t may  plan  be  i n advance, when there i s  13 sufficient time may  time to c o n s i d e r a l l d e t a i l s .  Valuable  be saved when i t i s most needed, and  supervisory  crews p l a c e d more  q u i c k l y i n the f i r e l i n e at c r i t i c a l moments. A l l e n (19*+8) maintained s u p p r e s s i o n w i l l be gained who  that c o n s i s t e n t success  only with t r a i n e d crews.  has a p l a c e i n the s u p p r e s s i o n p l a n must be g i v e n  training  to enable him  in  Every  man  sufficient  to e f f i c i e n t l y c a r r y out h i s d u t i e s .  Fire-Control  Standards  Gisborne  (19*+2) noted  p r o t e c t " i n the 1906 Service.  thelphrase "to  adequately  Use Book o f the United S t a t e s F o r e s t  The o b j e c t of the phrase was  to p r e s c r i b e d e f i n i t e  l i m i t s o f purpose to f i r e - c o n t r o l o p e r a t i o n s , w h i l e s e r v i n g as a b a s i s f o r a t t a i n i n g and m a i n t a i n i n g a d e f i n i t e l e v e l o f appropriations for f i r e - c o n t r o l .  Flint  (1928) claimed t h a t  adequate p r o t e c t i o n i s t h a t degree o f p r o t e c t i o n which "will render a f o r e s t property  j u s t as safe from d e s t r u c t i o n by  fire  as other forms of d e s t r u c t i b l e p r o p e r t y , i n which i n v e s t o r s , not s p e c u l a t o r s , are w i l l i n g to p l a c e t h e i r money.  This d e f i n i t i o n  i m p l i e s there must be a f a v o r a b l e r a t i o between gross revenue and  f i r e l o s s e s on any g i v e n a r e a under adequate p r o t e c t i o n .  I f t h i s i s not the case, f i r e l o s s e s must be reduced, income i n c r e a s e d .  or gross  Otherwise the supporting c a p i t a l w i l l  withdrawn to s a f e r and  more remunerative  enterprises.  be  Matthews  and M o r r i s (19*+0) s t a t e d : Adequate f i r e - c o n t r o l i s not a b s o l u t e or i d e a l or p e r f e c t f i r e - c o n t r o l , but i t i s an a t t a i n a b l e l e v e l o f c o n t r o l somewhere between p e r f e c t and no c o n t r o l , which w i l l m a i n t a i n the f o r e s t v a l u e s on p u b l i c o r p r i v a t e lands with due regard to economic c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , such as the balance between c o s t s and l o s s e s . Three p r i n c i p a l f i e l d s o f f i r e - c o n t r o l have been designated and  i n v e s t i g a t e d to some extent.  mentioned that Headley was  Hornby (1936)  c r e d i t e d w i t h o r i g i n a t i n g the  concept  o f the minimum-cost o b j e c t i v e ( l e a s t t o t a l of c o s t s of p r e s u p p r e s s i o n , s u p p r e s s i o n and damage), which Headley d e s c r i b e d i n the 1916  C a l i f o r n i a R e g i o n a l S u p p r e s s i o n Manual.  Show and  15 Kotok  (192*+)  advocated  a minimum-damage o b j e c t i v e .  they s t a t e d maximum a l l o w a b l e area burned  In  1929,  per year as a  percentage o f the t o t a l area p r o t e c t e d , and s e t up such an o b j e c t i v e f o r each major f o r e s t type i n the United S t a t e s . Standards o f d e t e c t i o n and t r a v e l - t i m e allowances f o r the f i r s t a t t a c k crews t o reach f i r e s were prepared f o r each f o r e s t - c o v e r type by Show and Kotok work on elapsed-time  standards.  (1930).  California  T h i s was the f i r s t  16 Minimum-Cost  Objective  B e a l l (19*+9) noted that the minimum-cost o b j e c t i v e postulates  that the r e l a t i o n s h i p between f i r e damage and f i r e -  c o n t r o l cost f o l l o w s the law o f d i m i n i s h i n g  r e t u r n s , and that  optimum f i r e - c o n t r o l i s a t t a i n e d when combined damage and c o s t are a t a minimum.  T h i s theory  not only accepts a c e r t a i n amount  o f f i r e damage as i n e v i t a b l e , but i m p l i e s that the r e d u c t i o n o f damage obtained  by p r o g r e s s i v e l y i n c r e a s i n g p r o t e c t i o n expend!--;  t u r e s w i l l prove u n p r o f i t a b l e i f c a r r i e d beyond a c e r t a i n Hornby (1936) observed t h a t , up to a c e r t a i n p o i n t ,  point.  increases  i n c o s t s o f preparedness and f i r e - f i g h t i n g a r e more  than e q u a l l y r e p a i d by r e d u c t i o n s c o u l d , however, be i n c r e a s e d  i n damage.  to such an extent  Expenditures that the t o t a l  o f expenditures and damage would be u n n e c e s s a r i l y  great.  Show and Kotok (192*+) s t a t e d that the minimum-cost theory  can be regarded as c l e a r - c u t , sound, and workable, o n l y  i f there  i s a r e l a t i o n between i n t e n s i t y o f p r o t e c t i o n and  r e d u c t i o n o f damage, and i f the v a l u e o f damage can be r e a d i l y and  a c c u r a t e l y assessed.  considerations t i o n , general  A p p r a i s a l s o f damage must  include  o f e r o s i o n , r e g u l a t i o n o f stream flow,  recrea-  f o r e s t i n f l u e n c e s on c l i m a t e , and the d i s r u p t i o n  o f f o r e s t communities f o r the d u r a t i o n o f the damage. additional d i f f i c u l t y  i n a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s theory  i f e v a l u a t i o n o f damage were not proved e l u s i v e ,  An  i s that even  statistics  would not be a v a i l a b l e to show by how much damage was reduced by a given i n c r e a s e i n f i r e - c o n t r o l  costs.  17 Flint  (1928)  concluded  t h a t , i f based  on ample and  dependable data, the minimum-cost method of determining f i r e - c o n t r o l f o r a f o r e s t u n i t would be f a i r l y wholly i n f a l l i b l e .  Brown  (1957)  noted  on past  Where s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n f u e l , weather, or  access have o c c u r r e d , i t may difficulty  s a f e , but not  that the theory i s  sometimes c r i t i c i s e d because i t i s always based experience.  adequate  e a s i l y be m i s l e a d i n g .  Another  i s that i n most areas, severe f i r e years occur a t  irregular intervals.  E r r a t i c v a r i a t i o n between years makes  the use o f smooth averages Beall  deceptive.  (19*+9) thought  that the minimum-cost theory  much to commend i t from the academic viewpoint.  Brown  (1957)  c o n s i d e r e d I t a u s e f u l p o l i c y guide, but of l i t t l e v a l u e as operating  guide.  had  an  18 Area  Burned The minimum-damage o b j e c t i v e (now  advocated by Show and Kotok  (192^-),  n a t i o n a l b a s i s i n both Canada and  c a l l e d area burned)  has been adopted on a  the U n i t e d S t a t e s .  Kotok,  K e l l e y , and Evans (1933)» w r i t i n g on f o r e s t - f i r e c o n t r o l i n N a t i o n a l F o r e s t s of the U n i t e d S t a t e s , noted that an o b j e c t i v e i n f i r e - c o n t r o l had been set up, based on the percentage o f the a r e a which may  burn over a n n u a l l y i n each f o r e s t type without  d r a s t i c a l l y d i s r u p t i n g forest-management p l a n s .  From e s t i m a t e s  o f a l l o w a b l e percentage o f burn i n f o r e s t types, i t i s p o s s i b l e to compute an a l l o w a b l e - b u r n percentage f o r each f o r e s t r e g i o n . T h i s composite  r e g i o n a l percentage i s o n l y a rough estimate o f  v a l u e and a broad i n d i c a t i o n o f o b j e c t i v e s , to permit a somewhat more g e n e r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e grasp of the f i r e Hornby  (1936)  i n g the area-burned  noted that the f i r s t  step i n e s t a b l i s h -  standard r e q u i r e d acceptance o f an a r b i t r a r -  i l y determined r e f e r e n c e p o i n t .  One  (0,1%) of area burned per year was pine types.  situation.  t e n t h o f one per cent  allowed spruce and  These types were used because  white  they were most  v a l u a b l e , t h e r e f o r e s e r v i n g as the best lower l i m i t o f the standard.  The r e l a t i v e percentages of burned-area  allowed i n  d i f f e r e n t types were based on r e l a t i v e r a t i n g s o f damage made by experienced f o r e s t o f f i c e r s . index was  The annual-allowable-percentage  c a l c u l a t e d by c o n s i d e r i n g how  factors  influencing  damage from f i r e s operate i n d i f f e r e n t f o r e s t types i n the United States.  The f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s were c o n s i d e r e d (Kotok,  K e l l e y , and Evans,  1933):  19 1. 2. 3. k.  The amount o f damage a g i v e n f i r e -will cause toopresent and p o t e n t i a l timber growth and other f o r e s t v a l u e s . D e s t r u c t i o n o f s i t e values by f i r e s . The d i f f i c u l t y o f r e - e s t a b l i s h i n g the f o r e s t following f i r e s . The e f f e c t o f f i r e s i n c r e a t i n g f i r e hazards, which w i l l i n c r e a s e the d i f f i c u l t y o f f i r e c o n t r o l i n the f u t u r e .  Following research into t h i s c o n t r o l B e a l l (19*+9) v a l i d a t e d i t s acceptance Canada.  standard,  on a n a t i o n a l s c a l e i n  He assumed under g i v e n c o n d i t i o n s a burned  to correspond  acreage  with, and s u b s t i t u t e f o r minimum c o s t - p l u s damage.  Although B e a l l may have worked independently, he based the area-burned  o b j e c t i v e on the same p r i n c i p l e d e s c r i b e d  by Kotok, K e l l e y , and Evans (1933). t i o n a l boundaries Regions,  Instead o f using o r g a n i z a -  comparable to U n i t e d S t a t e s F o r e s t S e r v i c e  B e a l l d i v i d e d the f o r e s t e d area o f Canada i n t o  thirteen  f o r e s t - f i r e p r o t e c t i o n zones, s e l e c t e d on the b a s i s o f f i r e and  risk  hazard. The b o r e a l - s p r u c e type was s e l e c t e d as lower  reference  l i m i t , and assessed an a l l o w a b l e burn o f one t e n t h o f one per cent (0.1$) per year.  F a c t o r s used to c a l c u l a t e a l l o w a b l e burn  f o r other f o r e s t types are s i m i l a r to those used by Kotok, K e l l e y , and Evans, but a r e presented  i n a more s p e c i f i c form.  These f a c t o r s , a p p l i e d to each type, ares 1. 2. 3.  P r o d u c t i v i t y and v a l u e f o r wood p r o d u c t i o n , stream-flow p r o t e c t i o n , r e c r e a t i o n , and wildlife. D e s t r u c t i b i l i t y , or completeness o f f i r e damage to f o r e s t and s i t e v a l u e s , considered j o i n t l y with p r o d u c t i v i t y . Ease o f r e - e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f the f o r e s t a f t e r fire.  20  5. 6.  F u e l hazard b e f o r e f i r e . F u e l hazard a f t e r f i r e . Lightning r i s k .  7.  A c c e s s i b i l i t y , c l i m a t e , and  B e a l l intended standard and  topography.  that t h i s method o f e s t a b l i s h i n g a  f o r f o r e s t - f i r e c o n t r o l should be used on a n a t i o n a l  r e g i o n a l s c a l e , and hoped at the same time that i t would  r e c e i v e d as an e m p i r i c a l system which could be modified  be  to  meet l o c a l needs. In p r e s e n t i n g d i s c u s s i o n and burned o b j e c t i v e , i t i s important which the b a s i c a l l o w a b l e - b u r n forest 1921  to c o n s i d e r the method by  Flint  (before the "allowable-area-burned  (1928) noted that i n o b j e c t i v e was  a f t e r c o n s i d e r a b l e a n a l y s i s o f the data  a v a i l a b l e ) an o p t i m i s t set an average o f one cent  area-  f i g u r e f o r the most v a l u a b l e  type has been determined.  as such, and  c r i t i c i s m of the  proposed then  t e n t h o f one  per  (0.1$) o f net f o r e s t area as the maximum that Region  One  o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s F o r e s t S e r v i c e could a f f o r d  to burn as  average over a p e r i o d o f years.  arbitrarily  chosen, but was  roughly  checked by e n t e r i n g data then a v a i l a b l e  i n the minimum-cost theory. f i g u r e should allowable  T h i s f i g u r e was  an  I t seems odd  coincidence  this  c u r r e n t l y p e r s i s t as common b a s i s f o r s e t t i n g  burn. B e a l l (19*+9) made a " p e r s o n a l  judgement survey"  to  determine the b a s i s f o r a l l o w a b l e burn i n C a a d a . He s t a t e d ; Ten of the f o u r t e e n f o r e s t e r s who were i n d i v i d u a l l y c o n s u l t e d on t h i s p o i n t concluded that one t e n t h o f one per cent was a reasonable f i g u r e to a s s i g n to spruce f o r e s t s i n most p a r t s o f E a s t e r n Canada. n  21 T h i s was  a l s o the means used i n determining  the  rela-  t i v e r a t i n g s f o r the v a r i o u s f o r e s t types i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s (Hornby, 1936). Brown (1957) argued that the one cent standard was timberland.  t e n t h o f one  per  too generous today f o r commercial managed  Under i n t e n s i v e management the f i r e - c o n t r o l  objec-  t i v e should e n t i r e l y exclude f i r e i n c e r t a i n p e r i o d s o f r o t a t i o n . For example, no burning can be allowed i n a p l a n t a t i o n or newly r e s t o c k e d area.  I n c o n t r a s t , some w i l d - f i r e can be  tolerated  i n mature pine stands where s u r f a c e f i r e s o f t e n cause  little  damage. S e v e r a l assumptions are i m p l i c i t burn concept.  i n the a l l o w a b l e -  The f i r s t assumes i n e v i t a b l e burn i n l a r g e  areas r e s t r i c t e d  to an economic l i m i t .  B e a l l (19^9) assumes  under t h i s standard, a g i v e n f o r e s t type i n a g i v e n r e g i o n , w i t h area-burned  p r o p o r t i o n a l , i n time, w i t h damage.  means that the standard  should be met  c u t t i n g c y c l e or timber r o t a t i o n .  This  f o r a p e r i o d equal to the  I d e a l l y , area-burned  should  be recorded and accumulated from year to year i n comparison with the o b j e c t i v e ;  the e f f e c t of bad years can thus  balanced a g a i n s t years when f i r e - c o n t r o l more than met  be this  objective. Kotok, K e l l e y , and Evans (1933) concluded o b j e c t i v e s presented at that time were the best approximations  that the  determinable  from a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n , s u b j e c t to r e v i s i o n  as newer and b e t t e r b a s i c data become a v a i l a b l e .  Brown (1957)  summarized that a l l o w a b l e burn has the v i r t u e o f being stood by the average f i r e - c o n t r o l employee.  under-  Furthermore,  he  22 p r e d i c t e d that i t w i l l be the only a v a i l a b l e standard as r e l i a b l e f i r e year, and  statistics  so long  are c o n f i n e d to area-burned each  f o r e s t area, by types, i n which burns o c c u r .  23 Maximum Acceptable F i r e S i z e B e a l l (19*+9) s t a t e d that a few  large f i r e s create i n  time the bulk o f f i r e damage and f o r e s t area-burned. when s e t t i n g a l l o w a b l e - b u r n  standards,  on a c c e p t a b l e s i z e of s i n g l e burns.  Therefore,  some l i m i t must be p l a c e d  P r o t e c t i o n would f a i l  to  be s a t i s f a c t o r y i f most o f the a l l o w a b l e burn f o r a twenty-year p e r i o d was  concentrated i n one  fire.  The average a c c e p t a b l e s i z e o f l a r g e s t f i r e s determined  was  by B e a l l , assuming that one per cent o f l a r g e s t  f i r e s , o c c u r r i n g i n a g i v e n p e r i o d , would i n c l u d e a l l l a r g e f i r e s causing the most damage.  The r a t i o , c a l c u l a t e d  b u r n / a c t u a l area burned by a l l f i r e s , was percentage,  determined  allowable as a  and a p p l i e d to the average f o r the l a r g e f i r e s .  The r e s u l t i n d i c a t e d the s i z e to which one f i r e i n a hundred c o u l d spread, do damage over a g i v e n p e r i o d , and w i t h i n the l i m i t s o f the a l l o w a b l e area-burned By  s e l e c t i n g some percentage  still  keep  standard.  other than one  (1), this  standard can be adjusted to meet the needs o f any a r e a . g r e a t e r percentage, tions.  Using  more s m a l l e r f i r e s are i n c l u d e d i n c a l c u l a -  Therefore, the average s i z e and consequently  the average  a c c e p t a b l e s i z e o f l a r g e s t f i r e s would be s m a l l e r . B e a l l p o i n t e d out that t h i s approach i s not above c r i t i c i s m , but does attempt to set r e a l i s t i c l i m i t s to maximum acceptable f i r e size of f i r e s .  2lf E l a p s e d Time Elapsed-time  i s the i n t e r v a l between commencement  and completion o f any g i v e n step or steps i n f i r e Summation o f i n t e r v a l s , or t o t a l elapsed-time  suppression.  i s the maximum  time which can be a l l o t t e d to c o n t r o l l i n g a f i r e i n any area or set  of c o n d i t i o n s , w h i l e area-burned  limits  (U.S.D.A., F o r e s t S e r v i c e ,  1956).  I n a study of elapsed-time  (1930)  observed  that without  remains w i t h i n p r e s c r i b e d  standards, Show and  Kotok  a w e l l d e f i n e d and r e a d i l y measur-  a b l e o b j e c t i v e , no d e t e r m i n a t i o n can be made o f speed  necessary  to  distribu-  successfully attack f i r e .  S i m i l a r l y , the s i z e and  t i o n of manpower and f i r e - c o n t r o l improvements cannot be ed u n t i l elapsed-time  standards have been determined.  standards are simply d e v i c e s to ensure the o v e r a l l objective i s attained.  establish-  These  control  C o n c u r r e n t l y they h e l p to s t i m u l a t e  p e r s o n n e l performance o f e f f i c i e n t f i r e - c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n s . ( F o l w e i l e r and Brown,  19^6).  Elements o f t o t a l elapsed-time  discussed i n t h i s  are times i n v o l v e d i n consummation o f the f o l l o w i n g f i r e functions: up, and  study  control  d i s c o v e r y , r e p o r t , get-away, t r a v e l , c o n t r o l ,  mop-  patrol. Discovery D i s c o v e r y time c o n s i d e r s the i n t e r v a l between f i r e  i g n i t i o n , and organization.  d i s c o v e r y by, or r e p o r t t o , the Buck  (1938)  observed  fire-control  that d i s c o v e r y time i s  s u b j e c t to c o n s i d e r a b l e v a r i a t i o n a t t r i b u t a b l e to p h y s i c a l  c o n d i t i o n s under which f i r e s occur and system i n v o l v e d .  the type o f d e t e c t i o n  This v a r i a t i o n , u n l i k e that i n any  elapsed-time steps, cannot be r e a d i l y c o n t r o l l e d by f i r e - c o n t r o l organization. circumstances may  delay  Morris  (19*1-7) noted that  the several  the d i s c o v e r y of l i g h t n i n g f i r e s .  example, when a b o l t o f l i g h t n i n g s t r i k e s , i t may f u e l from which flame or smoke may On  other  the other hand, i t may  h i t wet  For  h i t dry  be v i s i b l e almost at once. f u e l which may  smolder f o r a  week or more before becoming dry enough f o r the f i r e to develop and  produce e a s i l y v i s i b l e flame or smoke.  Thus no  t i o n can develop a d e t e c t i o n system to operate on a time standard  based on exact  i g n i t i o n time.  They should  be a s s o c i a t e d with  discovery-  Buck (1938)  however, that i t i s d e s i r a b l e to measure the extent which occur.  organiza-  stated  of v a r i a t i o n s  their controlling  p h y s i c a l f a c t o r s , so that s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n s i n d i s c o v e r y time may  be estimated  under which f i r e s  from the measurement of p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s  occur.  Common b a s i s f o r d i s c o v e r y  standard  i s elapsed-time  s i n c e smoke f i r s t r i s e s above the f o r e s t crown canopy (Dominion F o r e s t S e r v i c e , 19^8). Report Reporting f i r e d i s c o v e r y and suppression  time i s the time which elapses between r e p o r t to the agency r e s p o n s i b l e f o r  ( F o l w e i l e r and Brown, 19h6).  Time l a p s e between  f i r e s i g h t i n g and n o t i f i c a t i o n o f i n i t i a l a t t a c k crews  should  26 be almost n e g l i g i b l e w i t h modern communication equipment. McNasser (19^9) s t a t e d that communications are no important at present than i n the p a s t . ing  channels work adequately, e f f o r t  less  Even i f e x i s t i n g r e p o r t -  should be made to s u s t a i n  q u a l i t y o f communication to e l i m i n a t e breakdown i n emergency. F o l w e i l e r and Brown (19h6) conclude t h i s elapsed-time  standard  ,can be uniform f o r a l l r e g i o n s s i n c e the o p e r a t i o n i s determined by f a c t o r s e n t i r e l y w i t h i n c o n t r o l o f a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p e r s o n n e l . Get-away Get-away time i s the time elapsed between r e c e i p t o f f i r e r e p o r t by the i n i t i a l s u p p r e s s i o n f o r c e , and departure to the f i r e .  Use of t h i s standard i s based on the nature  preparedness  of the f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n , and  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n used.  and  type o f  For example, F o l w e i l e r and Brown (19*+6)  r e c o g n i z e d the need f o r more time with horses than motorized equipment. T r a v e l Time Norcross and Grefe ( 1 9 3 D  suggested  t i o n p l a n n i n g be based on a c l e a r statement  that t r a n s p o r t a -  of objectives,  f o l l o w e d by a set of s p e c i f i c a t i o n s to a i d i n a t t a i n i n g objectives.  The  these  s p e c i f i c a t i o n s should s t a t e the a l l o w a b l e  t r a v e l times f o r i n d i v i d u a l p o r t i o n s of a p r o t e c t e d a r e a .  To  comply completely w i t h the s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , 100 per cent o f the p r o t e c t e d area should be reached w i t h i n the p r e s c r i b e d t r a v e l time.  P l a n n i n g on t h i s b a s i s , however, would r e s u l t i n o v e r -  27 lapping  i n coverage from v a r i o u s p r o t e c t i v e p o s i t i o n s , and  certain relatively allowable  small areas could be brought w i t h i n the  t r a v e l - t i m e only a t excessive  cost.  I n planning the  p r o t e c t i o n system, t h e r e f o r e , i t i s important that c a r e f u l c o n s i d e r a t i o n be given to the percentage o f coverage, and c o r r e c t determination  o f the a l l o w a b l e  v a r i a t i o n from 100 per cent.  The  necessary coverage can u s u a l l y be secured w i t h s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t layouts of transportation f a c i l i t i e s  and men.  Objective,  the system which, a t l e a s t annual c o s t , w i l l comply w i t h  being travel-  time requirements. For planning  i n C a l i f o r n i a , Show and Kotok (1930)  used "maximum a l l o w a b l e  time to get to a f i r e under c e r t a i n  c o n d i t i o n s " as a means f o r r e l a t i n g allowable-burn objective. of fast-spreading  t h i s standard  to the annual  The i m p l i c a t i o n here i s that areas  f u e l s r e q u i r e i n t e n s i v e quick-access  whereas low-spread f u e l areas can be s e r v i c e d by l e s s ed t r a n s p o r t  pattern, concentrat-  facilities.  Control Control  time i s the i n t e r v a l between a r r i v a l o f the  suppression  u n i t on the f i r e ,  o f the f i r e  i s no longer  19*+6).  and that moment when the perimeter  extending i t s e l f  L i m i t s f o r t h i s standard  are g e n e r a l l y e s t a b l i s h e d a f t e r  an a n a l y s i s i s made o f the time r e q u i r e d and  ( F o l w e i l e r and Brown,  to get to a f i r e .  Show  Kotok (1930) r e a l i z e d that c o n t r o l time would be longer  where the other  elapsed  times were l o n g .  However,  increased  manpower and equipment may s u b s t i t u t e f o r time l o s t g e t t i n g to the  fire.  28 Show and Kotok ( 1 9 2 9 ) f o r e s t - f i r e fuels within of time r e q u i r e d  shoved that f o r e s t types, and  types, have a hearing on the amount  to c o n t r o l f i r e s .  Forest-type c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  l a r g e l y determine the a v a i l a b l e f u e l , a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f the f i r e , difficulty  o f c o n t r o l , r a t e o f spread, and type o f f i r e .  r a t e and e f f e c t i v e n e s s  of f i r e - l i n e  meter o f a f i r e i s i n f l u e n c e d  construction  The  on the p e r i -  by these f a c t o r s (Hornby,  1936).  T h e r e f o r e , r e l a t i o n s h i p s can be determined between f u e l type and  i n t e n s i t y of control action required  conditions.  With t h i s knowledge, judgement e x e r c i s e d  person d i s p a t c h i n g Better  under d i f f e r e n t weather by the  men and equipment to a f i r e can be improved.  judgement, i n t u r n , Increases p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u c c e s s f u l l y  attaining control-time  objectives.  Mop-up Mop-up time i s the i n t e r v a l between the time o f c o n t r o l o f a f i r e and the time when i t i s a c t u a l l y e x t i n g u i s h e d . mopping-up, a l l f i r e i s extinguished  In  from the c o n t r o l - l i n e  toward the center o f the burn, u n t i l the f i r e - c o n t r o l o f f i c e r or f i r e boss i s s a t i s f i e d and  the f i r e w i l l not r e a c t i v a t e .  Folweiler  Brown ( 1 9 * + 6 ) regard a mop-up-time standard as important to  eliminate  a t the e a r l i e s t  time, any p o s s i b l e r e a c t i v a t i o n .  o f day, weather, nature o f the burn, and surrounding  Time  fire  hazards and v a l u e s are major f a c t o r s used i n determining t h i s standard. MacQueen ( 1 9 * + 6 ) observed that time and money spent i n making c e r t a i n that a f i r e i s completely out a f t e r i t i s  29  c o n t r o l l e d , may r e s u l t i n s u b s t a n t i a l costs.  C l a r and Chatten (195*+) i m p l i e d that v/hen mop-up i s  adequate fails,  savings i n f i r e - c o n t r o l  I t i s r e c o g n i z e d only as a menial t a s k , but i f i t  i t i s dubbed the most c r i t i c a l phase o f f i r e - s u p p r e s s i o n  effort. Patrol P a t r o l time i s any time spent i n s u r v e i l l a n c e o f a burned area a f t e r mop-up has been completed.  30 10:00 A.M. P o l i c y A v a r i a t i o n o f the t o t a l - e l a p s e d - t i m e standard, the 10:00 A.M. P o l i c y , surmises that burning usually fluctuate diurnally.  rate of f i r e s  will  The low ebb i n the d a i l y  fire  c y c l e f r e q u e n t l y occurs from 2:00 A.M. to 6:00 A.M., i n concert with i n c r e a s e d r e l a t i v e humidity  low temperatures and  A f t e r 10:00 A.M. r a t e o f f i r e spread  low wind.  r a p i d l y to a maximum d u r i n g l a t e a f t e r n o o n , decreasing  increases  subsequently  to a low p o i n t i n the e a r l y morning.  The 10:00  P o l i c y p r e s c r i b e s that f i r e - c o n t r o l f o r c e s s h a l l take o f f a v o r a b l e n i g h t weather, and achieve accentuates  not completely  risk  I f the f i r e i s  c o n t r o l l e d o r e x t i n g u i s h e d by 10:00  e f f o r t d u r i n g mid-day and a f t e r n o o n  advantage  c o n t r o l before  a f t e r mid-morning, o r 10:00 A.M.  A.M.  i s concentrated  A.M., on h o l d i n g  constructed f i r e l i n e s , reserving o r g a n i z a t i o n a l strength f o r e f f e c t i v e e f f o r t e a r l y the f o l l o w i n g morning. Gisborne (19^2) s t a t e d that the P o l i c y was adopted by  the United S t a t e s F o r e s t S e r v i c e i n 1935.  Brown (1957)  noted how a r i s e i n f i r e - c o n t r o l c o s t s developed whenever inadequate f o r c e s were employed f o r an extended p e r i o d .  Many  people b e l i e v e f i r e s can be c o n f i n e d to a small area i f adequate f o r c e s a r e employed at the s t a r t . The  10:00 A.M. P o l i c y as p r e s e n t l y a p p l i e d , i s essen-  tially  to complete f i r e - c o n t r o l i n the s h o r t e s t p o s s i b l e time.  Brown  concluded:  31  Because o f frequent changes f o r the worse i n weather c o n d i t i o n s , from the point o f view o f s u p p r e s s i o n work, I am convinced the philosophy i s sound, though there are many r e s p e c t s i n which i t would be d e s i r a b l e to vary i t i n g i v e n c o n d i t i o n s . T h i s has been considered a good many times, but so f a r no p a r t i c u l a r m o d i f i c a t i o n has been made because o f the danger o f weakening the p o l i c y as i t i s now w r i t t e n . Perhaps the most v a l i d c r i t i c i s m o f the e x i s t i n g p o l i c y i s that i t o f t e n leads to overmanning or overspending on l a r g e f i r e s . Gisborne (19^2) c r i t i c i s e d i n g previous  the P o l i c y f o r d i s r e g a r d -  standards and o b j e c t i v e s o f f i r e - c o n t r o l .  In  a d d i t i o n , he noted that i t s p e c i f i e s comparable a t t e n t i o n to a l l wild lands, regardless  o f value  and f i r e  hazard.  32  OUTLINE OF FIRE-CONTROL STANDARDS The purpose  and needs o f management w i l l  the c h o i c e o f f i r e - c o n t r o l standards.  The  influence  i n t e n t here i s to  present a f u l l complement o f f i r e - c o n t r o l standards from which a f o r e s t manager can s e l e c t those to best serve h i s f i r e - c o n t r o l organization. F i r e - c o n t r o l standards a u t o m a t i c a l l y f a l l i n t o (2)  c l a s s e s , ( 1 ) the o v e r a l l f i r e - c o n t r o l o b j e c t i v e , and dards to be met  i n a t t a i n i n g that o b j e c t i v e .  The former  c a l l e d primary standards, and the l a t t e r , secondary ( B e a l l , 19*+9)o  stanare  standards,  Though the primary standards are t r e a t e d  d i f f e r e n t standards f o r the sake o f convenience  two  as  i n discussion,  they are simply a l t e r n a t i v e methods f o r determining the same objective. of  Secondary  f i r e control:  standards w i l l be r e l a t e d  to three phases  s u p p r e s s i o n , p r e s u p p r e s s i o n , and p r e v e n t i o n .  The f o l l o w i n g o u t l i n e encompassing major f i r e - c o n t r o l aspects i s presumed adequate to meet the needs o f a l a r g e f i r e control organization. Primary  Standards  Actuarial Economic Secondary  Standards  Suppression Area-Burned A l l o w a b l e Annual Burn Maximum Acceptable F i r e S i z e Maximum Number of F i r e s L o c a l I n c e n t i v e Standard Elapsed-Time Discovery Report Getaway  33  Travel Control 10:00 A.M. P o l i c y Mop-up Patrol Water-on-operations Presuppression Detection Communication Transportation Man-power Equipment Facilities I n f o r m a t i o n Planning Prevention Specific General  3h Primary  Standards  The f o r e s t manager has two a l t e r n a t i v e s when c o n s i d e r ing  o r g a n i z a t i o n of f o r e s t - f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t .  Basically,  must e i t h e r be w i l l i n g to pay a set r a t e f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l  he  effort,  and be r e c o n c i l e d to r e s u l t i n g damage, or he must set a l i m i t to  damage and meet expenses.  I n e i t h e r case, attempt  should  be  made to a t t a i n the i d e a l balance between c o s t s and damage, through p e r i o d i c adjustment  of f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t .  on the s e l e c t e d method of approach,  Depending  the manager d e c i d e s to  make the payments e i t h e r i n immediate cash expenditure, or i n present or f u t u r e l o s s e s i n n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e . Normally,  the standard of p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t  fire  damage i s governed by v a l u e s p r o t e c t e d , a v a i l a b l e f i n a n c e , and b e n e f i t s r e c e i v e d as a r e s u l t o f e f f o r t . of  The proper  weighting  these f a c t o r s to achieve an a c c e p t a b l e balance between f i r e -  c o n t r o l c o s t s and damage i s dynamic, a l t e r i n g w i t h p e r i o d i c s i t u a t i o n change. been developed of  However, a c t u a r i a l and economic t h e o r i e s have  to provide a means f o r weighting at l e a s t some  the f a c t o r s as a c c u r a t e l y as e x i s t i n g r e c o r d s permit. Actuarial Most f o r e s t s cannot be i n s u r e d economically a g a i n s t  l o s s by f i r e at the present time. must s u b s t i t u t e f o r the combination control.  Therefore, f i r e - c o n t r o l o f insurance w i t h  own  fire-  Because o f t h i s , the f o r e s t owner d i f f e r s from most  other i n v e s t o r s i n that he must i n s u r e h i s own his  alone  premium, s i n c e there i s no one  l o s s e s and  set  e l s e to do i t f o r him.  35 I t i s easy to e s t a b l i s h f i r e - c o n t r o l standards  i f the p r i c e o f  i n s u r a n c e premiums d i c t a t e s when i t i s cheaper to spend money on insurance r a t h e r than f i r e - c o n t r o l .  The problem becomes  more complex when there i s no g u i d i n g r e f e r e n c e , as premiums.  insurance  The a c t u a r i a l standard i s proposed as one  approach  to s o l v i n g t h i s problem. The  term a c t u a r i a l i m p l i e s c a l c u l a t i o n of  insurance  r i s k s and premiums, but i n t h i s study f i r e - c o n t r o l premiums or c o s t s , and not insurance, w i l l be d e a l t w i t h .  The  i n s u r a n c e or  a c t u a r i a l p r i n c i p l e w i l l be used as a means to assess  the  l e v e l o f most e f f i c i e n t f i r e - c o n t r o l , w i t h no c o n s i d e r a t i o n g i v e n to d i r e c t compensation f o r l o s s e s . out through  Solution i s carried  the a c t u a r i a l assessment o f past f i r e - c o n t r o l c o s t s  and damage, f i r e r i s k and danger, and assessment of  expected  trends. The use o f trends f o r developing a f i r e - c o n t r o l standard  i s an attempt to f i n d  some b e t t e r way  to determine  economic f i r e - c o n t r o l expenditure  than e x i s t s a t p r e s e n t .  The  assumption being that f i r e hazard  r e s u l t s from d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e  o f weather on p o t e n t i a l f o r e s t - f i r e f u e l s , w i t h no a p p r e c i a b l e a l t e r a t i o n i n time or through human i n f l u e n c e . develops  an economical  trends can be expected i n t o the f u t u r e .  Until  method o f c o n t r o l l i n g weather, past to h o l d and may  be i n t e l l i g e n t l y p r o j e c t e d  S i m i l a r l y , trends can be e s t a b l i s h e d on a l e s s  s t a b l e b a s i s , f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t , r i s k , and damage.  With determined  requirements.  estimated  p r o b a b i l i t i e s as r e f e r e n c e , the  c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n can determine present and or c o s t  man  expected  firepremium  36 Use  of the a c t u a r i a l method to determine  e f f i c i e n t l e v e l of spending criticism.  f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l , may  a probably be s u b j e c t to  However, i t appears more l o g i c a l than t r i a l  e r r o r to determine  and  the l e v e l o f f i r e - c o n t r o l spending.  The  r e s u l t s can only be as good as the q u a l i t y and amount o f data a v a i l a b l e to make the necessary c a l c u l a t i o n s and  the i n g e n u i t y  w i t h which these are analysed. Economic R e f e r r e d to o r i g i n a l l y as the "minimum-cost o b j e c t i v e " , t h i s standard i s c a l c u l a t e d on the b a s i s of past performance, and uses a s i n g l e d e r i v e d f i g u r e f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l per u n i t area as a minimum l i m i t f o r present effort.  The answer i s u s u a l l y determined  expenditure  fire-control  by g r a p h i c a l a n a l y s i s  o f past c o s t o f f i r e - c o n t r o l , and past damage.  The l e v e l o f  optimum f i r e - c o n t r o l expenditure being the p o i n t whence an a d d i t i o n a l d o l l a r i n v e s t e d i n p r e s u p p r e s s i o n no l o n g e r g i v e s a d o l l a r ' s worth o f reduced One  difficulty  f i r e f i g h t i n g c o s t p l u s damage. i n a p p l y i n g t h i s system i s that i n many  cases the economic l i m i t o f f i r e - c o n t r o l has not yet been a t t a i n e d , so the f o r e s t manager must keep i n c r e a s i n g  pre-  s u p p r e s s i o n expenditure i n a n t i c i p a t i o n that at some time i n the f u t u r e the annual t o t a l o f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n , s u p p r e s s i o n and damage c o s t s w i l l reach a minimum.  However, r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h i s  "minimum p o i n t " i s made d i f f i c u l t by the nature o f the other f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the changes i n f o r e s t - f i r e c o n t r o l .  Fire  weather and f o r e s t use vary from year to year, i n d i c a t i n g  two  37  different  q u a l i t i e s o f p r o t e c t i o n i n two years having the same  f i r e - c o n t r o l expenditure.  Different  be most e f f i c i e n t i n d i f f e r e n t to remain r e l a t i v e l y  y e a r s , but expenditures tend  fixed.  Other s a l i e n t i n the l i t e r a t u r e  l e v e l s o f expenditure would  f e a t u r e s o f the method have been noted  review.  38 Secondary  Standards  The host of secondary  standards assume a p p l i c a t i o n  to a f i r e - c o n t r o l u n i t or o r g a n i z a t i o n having a f u l l o f men  and f a c i l i t i e s .  fire-control  job, and  T h e r e f o r e , depending the s p e c i a l i z a t i o n  l i s t e d here might not be used.  complement  on the s i z e o f the  p o s s i b l e , some standards  However, they a l l warrant  c o n s i d e r a t i o n , s i n c e only systematic a n a l y s i s w i l l  ensure  a t t e n t i o n to d e s i r a b l e f i r e - c o n t r o l s t e p s . Suppression C o n t r o l standards d i r e c t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the fighting  job have r e c e i v e d more a t t e n t i o n than any o t h e r .  E a r l y i n the h i s t o r y of f i r e - c o n t r o l standards, the results  fire-  direct  of another f i r e f i g h t i n g crew or b u l l d o z e r added to the  f i r e l i n e was  always accepted as a v a l u a b l e c o n t r i b u t i o n  towards the attainment o f some area-burned t i o n that i n c r e a s i n g l i m i t s of one  objective.  Apprecia-  standard a i d s I n a t t a i n i n g  another, l e a d s to acceptance o f the more e l a b o r a t e standards subsequently d e r i v e d .  These newer concepts and  standards  not o b v i a t e the need f o r b a s i c s u p p r e s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s ,  do  instead,  they have only helped p l a c e a l l standards i n proper p e r s p e c t i v e . Area-Burned The f o u r area-burned  standards presented here are  complementary and perform a necessary s e r v i c e i n a n a l y z i n g and s o l v i n g a f i r e - c o n t r o l problem e f f i c i e n t l y .  39  A l l o w a b l e Annual  Burn  The allowable-burned-area standard has been widely used because  i t i s e a s i l y understood, and  simple to a p p l y .  Through t h i s b a s i c concept, the more complex i m p l i c a t i o n s o f the primary standards are t r a n s l a t e d i n t o terms r e a d i l y  under-  stood by the average f i r e - c o n t r o l employee, thereby e l i m i n a t i n g some of the c o n f u s i o n that c o u l d e x i s t  i n a complex o r g a n i z a -  t i o n i f the primary standards were a p p l i e d  directly.  A p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s standard to f i r e - c o n t r o l  opera-  t i o n s n e c e s s i t a t e s i t s c o n v e r s i o n to terms o f f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t and expenditure.  T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n can be r e a d i l y  extract-  ed from f i r e - c o n t r o l r e c o r d s , and r e l a t i o n s h i p s between expenditure and area-burned can be e s t a b l i s h e d .  at v a r i o u s degrees o f f i r e danger  By means o f t h i s type o f a n a l y s i s the  c o n t r o l planner can determine  the l e v e l o f f i r e - c o n t r o l  formance expected a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f f i r e - c o n t r o l  fire-  per-  effort,  expressed g e n e r a l l y by area-burned.  From the above d i s c u s s i o n ,  i t can be concluded that area-burned  used as a f i r e - c o n t r o l  standard i s simply a l i n k between a c t u a l f i r e - c o n t r o l tions,  and the primary standard.  Other f e a t u r e s o f t h i s standard  have been d i s c u s s e d i n the l i t e r a t u r e A n a l y s i s of t h i s  opera-  review.  standard w i l l be c a r r i e d  only the Canadian m o d i f i c a t i o n d e r i v e d by B e a l l  out u s i n g  (19*+9).  The  U n i t e d s t a t e s F o r e s t S e r v i c e method developed by Kotok, K e l l e y , and Evans ( 1 9 3 3 ) does not p r o v i d e s p e c i f i c a l l o w a b l e - b u r n f i g u r e s f o r the f o r e s t Columbia.  types found i n Southwest B r i t i s h  The i n d i c e s o f e f f e c t i v e  f i r e - c o n t r o l f o r the v a r i o u s  ho i n Tables 1 and  f o r e s t types f o r each method are presented  2.  For the Canadian m o d i f i c a t i o n , F i r e P r o t e c t i o n Zone 2 (Inner West Coast) w i l l be used  s i n c e i t i n c l u d e s Southeast  I s l a n d , which w i l l be the area used Zones 1 and 3»  i n t h i s study.  Data f o r  Outer West Coast, and Southwest Dry  r e s p e c t i v e l y , are presented f o r  Vancouver  Belt  comparison.  Maximum A c c e p t a b l e F i r e S i z e Once l i m i t s are e s t a b l i s h e d f o r average area-burned,  acceptable  f o r a c e r t a i n p e r i o d of time, the s i z e o f the  l a r g e s t f i r e s must be kept w i t h i n s i m i l a r p r e s c r i b e d l i m i t s if  the area-burned  ally  standard i s to be a t t a i n e d .  One  exception-  l a r g e f i r e can i n a few days cause damage f a r exceeding  a l l o w a b l e burn f o r many years, thereby r e n d e r i n g u s e l e s s the area-burned  standard.  In B r i t i s h Columbia, one  to three years  i n ten are c a l l e d " f i r e years", and any e x c e s s i v e f i r e damage . i s a t t r i b u t e d to t h i s "cause".  E f f e c t o f these " f i r e y e a r s "  has been recognized by a l l concerned,  and  i n many i n s t a n c e s i s  accepted as cause o f i n e v i t a b l e damage ( S l o a n , 1956). L i m i t s set down by a f i r e - c o n t r o l standard based  should  be  on c a l c u l a t i o n s of the a c c e p t a b l e amount o f f i r e damage.  The a t t i t u d e toward f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t , then, i s not i f more damaging f i r e s are t o l e r a t e d .  An i r o n i c a l  realistic,  situation  e x i s t s i f f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t i s i n c r e a s e d f o r years a f t e r a large f i r e , i n effort  to meet an o v e r a l l standard  rendered  i n v a l i d because of a l a c k of f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t when needed.  4-1 TABLE 1  Acceptable Average Annual Burned Area, Per Cent, United States Forest Service (Kotok, Kelley, and Evans,  Forest Type White Pine Spruce Douglas-fir Larch-fir Larch-flr-White Pine True F i r Ponderosa Pine Mixed Conifers (California) Lodgepole Pine Jack Pine Norway Pine Shortleaf Pine L o b l o l l y Pine Slash Pine Sand Pine Longleaf Pine Northern Hardwood Appalachian Hardwood Bottomland Hardwood Oklahoma Hardwood Aspen Non-Commercial Forests Brush and Non-Timbered Land Watersheds Recreation Values  1933) Annual Allowable Burn (.%)  0.10 0.10 .2-.30 0.25 0.15 .2-.30 0.30 0.30 1.00 o.5o 0.30 1.00 1.00 0.70 1.00 3.00 0.20 o.5o 0.20 1.00 0.70 2.00 2.50  .4-2.50  0-0.50  1+2  TABLE 2 A c c e p t a b l e Average Annual Burned Area, Per Cent, F e d e r a l F o r e s t r y Branch, Canada ( B e a l l , 19*+9)  Forest  Tvoe  E x p e r i m e n t a l F o r e s t Areas R e c r e a t i o n a l F o r e s t Areas P r o d u c t i v e F o r e s t Areas: Softwood TypesE a s t e r n White P i n e Red Pine Jack and Lodgepole P i n e s Ponderosa P i n e Tamarack Spruces Hemlocks Douglas F i r Balsam F i r s Cedars E a s t e r n W. Pine-Spruce J . or L. Pine-Spruce L. or P. Pine-D. F i r Spruce-B. F i r Spruce-Hem. B l a c k Spruce-Tam. D. F i r - W e s t e r n L a r c h D. Fir-Cedar-Hem. Cedar-Hemlock Hardwood TypesB l a c k Cottonwood Poplars White B i r c h e s T o l e r a n t Hardwoods Mixedwood TypesE a s t e r n W. P i n e - P o p l a r J . or L. P i n e - P o p l a r Spruce and/or B. F i r - P o p l a r and/or W. B i r c h Softwood-B. Cottonwood Softwood-Tol. Hardwood Non-Productive F o r e s t Areas Non-Forested Areas  Annual A l l o w a b l e Burn (%) Zone 2 1 3 .02 .01+  -  .06  .08 .10  .08  .07  -  .02  .05  .10 .12 .12 .12 .10  .02 .06  -  — .30  -.25 .15 .25 .15 .15  -  -  .10 -  .07  .12 .10  -  .07  -  .08  .15  -  -  .12  .12 .10 .60 1.20  .20  -  .25 .15  -  .15  .12 .70 1.20  .20  .25 .15  -  .25 .25  .30  -  .30  .20 .70 1.20  h3 A f o r e s t manager must set a l i m i t  to maximum f i r e  s i z e i f the f o r e s t property i s being managed on a s u s t a i n e d yield  basis.  Averaged over a r o t a t i o n p e r i o d o f 100  years,  the e f f e c t of small f i r e s on the f o r e s t s t r u c t u r e might be minor importance. stands  Large f i r e s ,  that might be planned  d i s r u p t i o n of c o s t l y The  a d d i t i o n a l damage r e s u l t s due  to  planning. s i z e can only be made  of some c a l c u l a t i o n p e r i o d f o r average  a l l o w a b l e annual burn. maximum f i r e  Consequently, damage cannot  e s t i m a t i o n of maximum f i r e  a f t e r establishment  entire  f o r c u t t i n g d u r i n g some d e f i n i t e  p e r i o d i n the management c y c l e . be e a s i l y absorbed, and  however, can d e s t r o y  of  With a short c a l c u l a t i o n p e r i o d , the  s i z e must be c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y  s m a l l because  total  p e r m i s s i b l e area-burned could only accumulate to a s i z e i n r e l a t i o n to the number o f years c o n s i d e r e d .  There would  no great time span i n which to average out bad a l a r g e number o f good f i r e One  with  o f the method i s t h a t i f  should happen to i n c r e a s e , then the  a d j u s t s i t s e l f upwards, and trends to continue  f i r e years  years.  inherent disadvantage  the s i z e o f f i r e s  be  erroneously  i n t o the f u t u r e .  f i r e years have j u s t o c c u r r e d , and  expects  standard  past performance  Assuming a number of bad the f i r e s were e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y  l a r g e , the c a l c u l a t e d l a r g e s t a c c e p t a b l e f i r e  s i z e f o r the  p e r i o d would be r a i s e d even though the approaching  next  years might  be good f i r e years with no chance of l a r g e f i r e s o c c u r r i n g . The  r e v e r s e s i t u a t i o n might e x i s t a f t e r a number of years  no l a r g e  fires.  with  Maximum Acceptable Number o f F i r e s J u s t as the maximum-acceptable-fire-size h e l p s to a t t a i n the allowable-area-burned  standard  o b j e c t i v e through  f i r e - s i z e l i m i t a t i o n , the maximum-acceptable-number o f f i r e s standard  serves the same purpose by s e t t i n g l i m i t s f o r number  of f i r e s . ially  The p r i n c i p l e s governing  t h i s standard are e s s e n t -  the same as those f o r maximum-acceptable-fire-size.  a g r e a t e r number o f f i r e escape and damage.  With  s t a r t s , there i s i n c r e a s e d chance o f  Under o r d i n a r y circumstances  a good r e l a -  t i o n s h i p should e x i s t between number o f f i r e s and area-burned. Some l e v e l o f f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t a p p l i e d d u r i n g a c e r t a i n degree o f f i r e danger should r e s u l t i n r e d u c i n g number o f f i r e  starts,  to the p o i n t where the number o f maximum and i n t e r m e d i a t e f i r e s w i l l r e s u l t i n the t o t a l area-burned allowed  size  being below that  each year. Local Incentive The value o f enthusiasm  and p e r s o n a l i n c e n t i v e i n  o b t a i n i n g good r e s u l t s from f i r e - c o n t r o l employees was p o i n t e d out i n the i n t r o d u c t i o n . p a s t , and can be important be e x p l o i t e d .  T h i s s i t u a t i o n was p e r t i n e n t i n the i n the f u t u r e , consequently  T h i s o b j e c t i v e suggests  should  a l o c a l i n c e n t i v e standard  based on d e c r e a s i n g past burned area by 10 per cent each year. The p s y c h o l o g i c a l and p r a c t i c a l value o f the standard may be questioned, but i t has been a p p l i e d w i t h c e r t a i n success i n limited  areas.  >+5 I n a p p l i c a t i o n , t h i s standard has an i n h e r e n t d i s advantage s i m i l a r to that i n B e a l l s " a c c e p t a b l e s i z e , o f average 1  largest f i r e s " .  Assuming area-burned  scribed l i m i t s ,  i s not kept w i t h i n p r e -  the standard a u t o m a t i c a l l y a d j u s t s i t s e l f  allow a l a r g e r area-burned  f o r subsequent y e a r s .  to  This e f f e c t  can be p a r t i a l l y dampened by using an average based on a span o f a l a r g e number o f years. prescribed l i m i t s ,  I f the area-burned  i s kept w i t h i n  the damage w i l l become s u c c e s s i v e l y s m a l l e r  w i t h each year, though the formula f o r the standard assumes a l l f i r e damage w i l l be completely  never  excluded.  At some  time i n the f u t u r e , however, damage would be expected d i m i n i s h to a n e g l i g i b l e  level.  A d e s i r a b l e f e a t u r e o f the standard  i s that i t assumes  continued improvement i n f i r e - c o n t r o l methods and T h i s p r o g r e s s i v e a t t i t u d e i s not found major  to  expressed  technology. i n any  other  standard. The  attainment  e f f e c t i v e use o f t h i s standard  o f the o v e r a l l area-burned  any area-burned  should  objective.  ensure  Furthermore,  o b j e c t i v e must be adjusted as v a l u e s and  t i o n s change, and  f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t improves.  The  condi-  local  i n c e n t i v e standard, which serves as a b u i l d - u p index o f the sum  of f i r e hazard  and f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t , can serve as a  guide f o r t h i s adjustment. E l a p s e d Time Area-burned can be expressed i n v o l v e d i n l o c a t i n g , r e a c h i n g , and  i n terms o f  time  extinguishing f i r e s at  1+6 v a r i o u s degrees o f f o r e s t f i r e hazard (Show and Kotok,  1930).  Assuming the above r e l a t i o n s h i p to be t r u e , g e n e r a l a l l o w a b l e elapsed times can be c a l c u l a t e d f o r each f o r e s t type, or each f i r e - c o n t r o l unit.  When the p r i n c i p l e i s a p p l i e d to the e n t i r e  u n i t , w i t h elapsed-time l i m i t s based on the most hazardous types, p h y s i c a l adjustments for  the e n t i r e a r e a .  can be made to ensure equal  fuel  coverage  The u s u a l p r a c t i c e i s to b u i l d roads and to  l o c a t e f i r e crews r e l a t i v e to the d i s t r i b u t i o n of f i r e  hazard.  The importance o f f o c u s s i n g on the l a r g e s t f i r e s the "bad  f i r e y e a r s " was  and Kotok (1930).  and  pointed out by B e a l l (19*+9) and Show  B e a l l determined  elapsed-time standards f o r  the worst recorded c o n d i t i o n s and found t h a t , i n Canada, f i v e  per  cent o f the f i r e s caused e i g h t y per cent o f the recorded a r e a burned.  Show and Kotok, working  average area-burned was  i n C a l i f o r n i a , noted that the  nine times g r e a t e r i n more d i f f i c u l t  years than those l e s s d i f f i c u l t .  These r e s u l t s suggest  that  f u t u r e elapsed-time standards should be based on some l e v e l o f worst recorded c o n d i t i o n .  Any  fire  s t a t i s t i c s that do not  i n t o the worst c l a s s o b v i o u s l y r e s u l t e d from adequate e f f o r t f o r the c o n d i t i o n s i n which they s t a r t e d and  fall  fire-control  existed.  A d d i t i o n a l a t t e n t i o n should be paid to c r i t i c a l problems brought on by worst c o n d i t i o n s . may  To the extent that f i r e - f i g h t i n g  be expected to improve,  i t may  practice  be l e g i t i m a t e to exclude from  any a n a l y s i s those f i r e s on which f a u l t y s u p p r e s s i o n a c t i o n , remedied or remediable by t r a i n i n g , i s c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e d by  since fire  reports. Some elapsed-time standards lend themselves approach based on f a c i l i t i e s and manpower at hand.  to a n a l y t i c a l Trial  k7 runs o f f i r e c o n t r o l o p e r a t i o n s w i l l able e f f i c i e n c y .  i n d i c a t e degree o f a t t a i n -  R e s u l t s can be used d i r e c t l y ,  to s e t an i d e a l  g o a l , or modified by some p e r m i s s i b l e percentage  to compensate  for  l i m i t e d e r r o r i n e v i t a b l e during f i r e - c o n t r o l operations.  Use  o f t h i s method can be adapted In some extent to a l l elapsed  time standards a p p l i e d b e f o r e men s t a r t work on a f i r e . Discovery D i s c o v e r y time data may be u n r e l i a b l e because i t i s difficult  to determine with any degree o f accuracy,  when f i r e  i n c e p t i o n occurs.  The s o l u t i o n to t h i s problem  i n developing a systematic means f o r deducing of  ignition.  precisely  Some f i r e causes,  lies  cause and time  such as i n r a i l w a y  fires,  r e a d i l y lend themselves to t h i s approach, whereas c e r t a i n i n v e s t i g a t i o n and r e s e a r c h i s necessary b e f o r e i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l be a v a i l a b l e f o r l i g h t n i n g  accurate  fires.  With present I n t e n s i t y o f lookout coverage i n l i g h t ning r e g i o n s , s t r i k e s can be mapped and time o f s t r i k e Subsequent d e t e c t i o n v i g i l e n c e ensures record f o r lightning s t r i k e s . following a lightning  noted.  an a c c u r a t e d i s c o v e r y  F i r e s s t a r t i n g i n remote areas  storm, can g e n e r a l l y be a t t r i b u t e d  t h e r e t o , i f there i s a low p r o b a b i l i t y the s t a r t was made by man. A c t u a l time o f i n c e p t i o n i s d i f f i c u l t ing  man-caused f i r e s .  There seldom i s d i r e c t evidence  the p r e c i s e minute a f i r e fairly  to f i x concern-  starts.  as to  I f the c u l p r i t i s caught, a  a c c u r a t e estimate o f s t a r t i n g time can be o b t a i n e d from  the i n d i v i d u a l .  Otherwise,  considerable deduction i s required  k8 b e f o r e probable i g n i t i o n time i s determined. I f evidence l e a d s to b e l i e f that a f i r e was s t a r t e d by a locomotive, and the time can be determined  f o r the move-  ment o f that locomotive, the i g n i t i o n time can be c a l c u l a t e d w i t h some accuracy. Where no d i r e c t evidence concerning f i r e  starting  time i s a v a i l a b l e , c a l c u l a t i o n o f probable s t a r t i n g time can be made from a t t a c k time. fire  The f i r e hazard and r e l a t e d r a t e o f  spread can i n d i c a t e the probable time i t took the f i r e to  reach the s i z e a t a t t a c k . D e t e c t i o n - t i m e standards w i l l of  l a r g e l y be a f u n c t i o n  the values being p r o t e c t e d and the r a t e o f f i r e spread i n  existing fuels.  Standards  should be more l i m i t i n g where there  i s a r a p i d r a t e o f spread and v a l u e s are h i g h . of  the f o r e s t cover type w i l l  An assessment  g i v e adequate i n f o r m a t i o n f o r  the d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f the standard. The value o f a c c u r a t e d e t e c t i o n cannot emphasized.  be over-  Immediate f i r e - c o n t r o l a c t i o n i s dependent on  t a k i n g the best route o f access to a f i r e , and having the proper type o f equipment on hand t o e x t i n g u i s h the f i r e .  An  i n a c c u r a t e l o c a t i o n o f f i r e s can r e s u l t i n g r e a t e r than a l l o w a b l e c o s t s and damages s i n c e f i r e crews may have l o c a t i o n difficulty  or may a r r i v e at the scene w i t h i l l chosen equipment. Report F i r e r e p o r t s ban be almost  adequate d e t e c t i o n and communication.  instantaneous with Telephone and r a d i o  h9 contact  from towers and r a d i o contact  give the u l t i m a t e  from a i r p l a n e s  i n r e p o r t i n g performance.  generally  Perhaps when  d e t e c t i o n by t e l e v i s i o n i s p e r f e c t e d ,  r e p o r t i n g time w i l l no  longer  Present r e p o r t i n g problems  be an elapsed-time o b j e c t i v e .  concern mechanical d i f f i c u l t i e s from inadequate maintenance o r use o f o b s o l e t e  equipment.  These t r o u b l e s can be e l i m i n a t e d  through improved checking and maintenance r o u t i n e s . Past  experience shows that many f i r e s are r e p o r t e d by  people t r a v e l l i n g through or near the f o r e s t . source o f a s s i s t a n c e should organizations, opportunity should and  Though t h i s  not be r e l i e d on by f i r e - c o n t r o l  t h i s cooperation  i s advantageous.  Since  this  f o r d e t e c t i n g and r e p o r t i n g f i r e s does e x i s t , i t  be encouraged and a i d e d .  f a c i l i t i e s can be placed  Proper r e p o r t i n g  i n strategic  l o c a t i o n s to minimize {'public" r e p o r t i n g  information  positions i n c r i t i c a l time.  Get-away The reflected  preparedness o f a f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n i s  by the time r e q u i r e d  to s t a r t an adequate,  equipped f i r e - f i g h t i n g f o r c e on route  to a r e p o r t e d  fully fire.  a c t under minimum get-away standards, the d i s p a t c h e r r e q u i r e a knowledge o f e x i s t i n g  To  would  f i r e hazard, and to these  hazards he -would have "geared" f i r e - c o n t r o l p e r s o n n e l and equipment.  Equipment should  always be i n c o n d i t i o n and l o c a -  t i o n to ensure minimum l o s t time. procedure should  I n a d d i t i o n , get-away  be drawn up f o r f i r e duty p e r s o n n e l .  Some  50 f i r e s occur d u r i n g lower hazard standing-by  to f i g h t f i r e .  p e r i o d s , when crews a r e not  Planning f o r such o c c a s i o n should  p r e s c r i b e s k e l e t o n crews from a v a i l a b l e employees.  T h i s group  would c o n s t i t u t e the emergency f o r c e . The key to quick get-away, i s the proper  distribution  o f manpower, f i r e - f i g h t i n g t o o l s , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . A deficit  i n any one o f the f a c t o r s can r e s u l t i n c o n f u s i o n a t  the o u t s e t .  The i d e a l s o l u t i o n l i e s i n a s p e c i a l i z e d  fire-  c o n t r o l f o r c e , such as a c i t y f i r e department, where each man, p i e c e o f equipment, and means o f t r a n s p o r t i s matched to form a f u l l y c o o r d i n a t e d f i r e - f i g h t i n g team.  T h i s i s not p o s s i b l e  under normal c o n d i t i o n s o f f o r e s t f i r e - c o n t r o l , though every attempt should be made to approximate the s i t u a t i o n .  Planned  schedules f o r f i r e a c t i o n must be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r d i r e c t a v a i l a b i l i t y o f men and equipment. T h i s standard lends i t s e l f to t e s t and a n a l y s i s and o b j e c t i v e should be determined  on the b a s i s o f p o s s i b l e poten-  t i a l a c t i o n , not past performance. Travel Once crews have departed headquarters,  from the equipment depot o r  t r a v e l - t i m e i s important.  The f u l f i l m e n t o f  s t r i c t l i m i t s placed on t r a v e l can r e s u l t i n g r e a t e r reward than f o r any other elapsed-time,  through  improvements p o s s i b l e  i n the f i e l d o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .  T r a n s p o r t a t i o n improvements  are always c o s t l y , but may be the only remaining elapsed-time.  means to reduce  Time cut from other c o n t r o l i n t e r v a l s and allowed  f o r t r a v e l , can sometimes be a c q u i r e d a t much l e s s c o s t  than  51 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n improvements producing C o n s t r u c t i o n of access routes may of  the same r e s u l t s . an d e v e l o p / i n c r e a s e i n number  man-caused f i r e s along those r o u t e s .  problem i s both c r e a t e d and  I n t h i s case the  s o l v e d by road c o n s t r u c t i o n .  fire On  the other hand, the f i r e problem a l r e a d y e x i s t s where l i g h t ning occurrence  i s h i g h , so there i s d e f i n i t e need to improve  transportation f a c i l i t i e s  i n those areas.  c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s that the horse and l a n d t r a n s p o r t may  some mechanical  methods o f  become o b s o l e t e f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l purposes i n  the f u t u r e , t h e r e f o r e , roads and alone may  Another worthy  trails built for fire-control  have a l i m i t e d u s e f u l l i f e .  With t h i s  prospect  f a c i n g f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n s the best s o l u t i o n i n some s i t u a t i o n s might be to wait f o r other f o r e s t management s e r v i c e s to b u i l d roads, and able. of  In any event,  then use them as they become a v a i l -  t r a v e l - t i m e standards are an e s s e n t i a l p a r t  the o v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e s o f f i r e - c o n t r o l and  which they are a t t a i n e d deserve  the methods by  a t t e n t i v e planning.  Control F o r e s t f i r e - c o n t r o l time i s a r e s u l t o f speed o f a t t a c k , s i z e o f a t t a c k f o r c e , the f o r e s t ' s burning and  the i n f l u e n c e of weather.  a d j u s t a b l e by man, them.  The  two  so l i t t l e  The l a t t e r two  potential,  are not  readily  or no e f f o r t i s made to modify  former f a c t o r s can be adjusted through  expenditures, and a p p l i c a t i o n o f newer techniques.  greater  To meet  g e n e r a l c o n t r o l - t i m e standards, e f f o r t i s made to deploy manpower and equipment to those areas where h i g h hazards  are  52 expected to develop. serves  Manipulation  of the f i r e - c o n t r o l  as h a s i s f o r meeting c o n t r o l - t i m e  control-times  needs.  force  Normally,  are determined by comparing f i r e - c o n t r o l p e r -  formance under v a r i o u s degrees of past hazard, to times i n v o l v ed.  Where times have exceeded the l i m i t s , e f f o r t  adjust  i s made to  the e x i s t i n g c o n t r o l f o r c e to meet the worst p o s s i b l e  condition. If  a f i r e i s not c o n t r o l l e d d u r i n g  p e r i o d , more men  should  be designated  the f i r s t work  f o r action, since f a t i g u e  w i l l cause a marked drop i n e f f i c i e n c y of the crew. change i s u s u a l l y time consuming s i n c e i t r e q u i r e s of new  men  to the working c o n d i t i o n s .  T h i s crew adjustment  Darkness may  force  extended c o n t r o l times through r e d u c t i o n or complete ment of f i r e - l i n e work. c o n t r o l e f f o r t s may  Extreme r e s i s t a n c e of f i r e to  the kinds  o f t o o l s and  d i r e c t i n g o f f i c e r s , and and  mental a b i l i t y of  extra-  This s i t u a t i o n i s a l s o influenced equipment used, the e f f i c i e n c y  the t r a i n i n g , experience, and  of  physical  firefighters.  10:00 A.M.  Policy  A f t e r the heat at the f r o n t o f an a g g r e s s i v e becomes too great  the  d i c t a t e methods o f a t t a c k that can be  o r d i n a r i l y time consuming. by  curtail-  fire  to permit work, only i n d i r e c t a t t a c k s or a  remarkable change o f c o n d i t i o n s makes i t p o s s i b l e to prevent extremely r a p i d spread. f o r e , i s before  opportunity  a f i r e makes i t s f i r s t  next o p p o r t u n i t y n i g h t f a l l ) and  The  to l i m i t  aggressive  spread, run.  there-  The  comes a f t e r the f i r e d i e s down ( u s u a l l y at  before  i t makes another run during  the next  53 mid-day burning p e r i o d .  T h i s means that under the most severe  burning c o n d i t i o n s d e t e c t i o n and f i r s t a t t a c k must aim a t p r e v e n t i n g the escape o f any f i r e .  Failing  this,  reinforce-  ments must be used to stop spread as soon as heat and advancing f r o n t s permit.  Another way o f s t a t i n g approximately  the same  o b j e c t i v e i s , that when burning c o n d i t i o n s a r e c r i t i c a l , d e t e c t i o n , f i r s t a t t a c k , and reinforcement a c t i o n should be planned  to c a t c h every f i r e  i n the f i r s t work p e r i o d .  This  p e r i o d ends when the next mid-day burning p e r i o d begins, u s u a l l y about 10:00 A.M.  T h i s i s a t a n g i b l e o p e r a t i n g guide  r a t h e r than a p o s t - f i r e check on accomplishments. Mop-up Mopping-up' means going i n s i d e the l i n e o f a c o n t r o l l e d f i r e and e x t i n g u i s h i n g any burning m a t e r i a l or removing f u e l s that have even the s l i g h t e s t chance o f causing the f i r e to reactivate. of  Time l i m i t s are p a r t i c u l a r l y  day i s approaching,  or when winds are r i s i n g and i n c r e a s i n g  chances o f a f i r e burning out o f c o n t r o l . of  a l l f i r e reduces  a very bad r i s k .  important when heat  The r a p i d  extinction  the time d u r i n g which a c o n t r o l l e d f i r e i s  The p r o b a b i l i t y o f the f i r e g e t t i n g away i s  d i m i n i s h e d as mop-up p r o g r e s s e s . Patrol  ,  I f a good job o f mop-up i s r e f l e c t e d by the time i t takes, then i t can be s a i d t h a t p a t r o l time v a r i e s to  mop-up time.  P a t r o l work does not a c t u a l l y f a l l  inversely i n t o the  5h elapsed-time it  category  as used with the other "times",  instead,  i s a complementary job to ensure the f i r e - c o n t r o l job i s  complete.  Time i n v o l v e d i n p a t r o l , w i l l vary w i t h the s i z e  and  o f f u e l s , and p r e v a l e n t f i r e hazard,  nature  particularly  wind, Water-on-operations Some l o g g i n g o p e r a t o r s  i n B r i t i s h Columbia have found  i t d e s i r a b l e to e s t a b l i s h time l i m i t s f o r g e t t i n g water to f i r e s o r i g i n a t i n g on t h e i r l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s .  This o b j e c t i v e  i s a t t a i n e d by l a y i n g out e n t i r e w a t e r - l i n e systems adjacent to the areas where l o g g i n g i s to p r o g r e s s . u n l i k e that o f any c i t y hydrant network.  The system i s not too The h i g h c o s t o f  equipment and e f f o r t i n v o l v e d i n t h i s type o f a c t i o n may be warranted by the f a c t that o p e r a t i o n s might have to be c l o s e d down i n many i n s t a n c e s i f t h i s degree o f p r e p a r a t o r y c o n t r o l were not taken.  fire  55 Presuppression Suppression through  standards can be e f f e c t i v e l y  i n t e l l i g e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n of f i r e - c o n t r o l  Equipment, f a c i l i t i e s ,  implemented  funds.  and s i z e and q u a l i t y o f the manpower  o r g a n i z a t i o n can be improved through  e f f e c t i v e spending.  i n t u r n should be r e f l e c t e d i n e f f e c t i v e f i r e - c o n t r o l . combination  This Some  o f the above f a c t o r s w i l l r e s u l t i n the most  efficient function for fire-control.  I t should be noted,  though, that each o f the f a c t o r s 1. has d i f f e r i n g v a l u e s and significance i n different fire-control units.  A  combination  e f f e c t i v e i n one area may not serve w e l l i n o t h e r s . Avery (1932) devised a scheme f o r a s s e s s i n g p r e s u p p r e s s i o n and s u p p r e s s i o n "mechanics" by g i v i n g each a numerical of The  r a t i n g to i n d i c a t e i t s degree o f adequacy. t e n f o r each f a c t o r , the upper l i m i t  He used a range  s i g n i f y i n g adequacy.  f a c t o r s were: 1. 2. 3. k.  Detection Communication Transportation Suppression  E q u a l weight was g i v e n each f a c t o r because, f o r example, i t was considered necessary  to a t t a i n adequacy i n d e t e c t i o n and  communication before t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and s u p p r e s s i o n would be effective.  A f t e r a t t a i n i n g adequacy w i t h the former two, they  c o u l d be g i v e n lower values than t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and s u p p r e s s i o n . A d d i t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n was given to the i n f l u e n c e o f r i s k and danger, but the e f f e c t o f these was not d i r e c t e d a t the i n d i v i d u a l f a c t o r , but a t a t t a i n i n g an o v e r a l l c o n t r o l  standard  56 through t h e i r use. The control  p r i n c i p a l feature  standards, i s that  o f the scheme, as r e l a t e d to  c e r t a i n s p e c i f i c a t i o n s must be met  for various l e v e l s of r a t i n g .  This p r i n c i p l e i s considered  a c c e p t a b l e i n the l i g h t o f l i m i t e d e x i s t i n g knowledge and understanding o f the many f a c t o r s and r e l a t i o n s h i p s influence  that  the assessment o f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n f a c t o r s .  i n t h i s study w i l l be l i m i t e d to p r e s u p p r e s s i o n .  I t s use  Though the  method i s not above c r i t i c i s m , i t does have a c e r t a i n advantage since  i t provides a basis  i n an o b j e c t i v e  f o r analyzing  p r e s u p p r e s s i o n elements  manner.  Modification  o f the above method f o r t h i s study, i s  based on the assumption that  the f i r e - c o n t r o l planner has  s u f f i c i e n t knowledge o f r i s k and danger f a c t o r s i n a p a r t i c u l a r f i r e - c o n t r o l u n i t (aided  by f u e l - t y p e  maps and past weather  r e c o r d s ) to enable him to s a t i s f a c t o r i l y p r e s c r i b e l i m i t s f o r each p r e s u p p r e s s i o n f a c t o r .  a range o f  A new s c a l e must be s e t  up f o r each f i r e - c o n t r o l u n i t , depending on the purposes o f management, and the nature o f the f i r e hazard. the p o s s i b l e  t o t a l of a l l ratings  F o r convenience  should be 1 0 0 so that the  degree o f o v e r a l l adequacy can be r e a d i l y expressed as a percentage. Though i t i s i n e v i t a b l e that  e r r o r s w i l l be made i n  the p r e s c r i p t i o n and use o f the r a t i n g s , t h i s scheme has v a l u e because i t encourages an a c t i v e review o f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n . value received conscientious  from t h i s type o f work i s p r o p o r t i o n a l e f f o r t that  goes i n t o i t .  The  to t h e  57 The seven main p r e s u p p r e s s i o n f a c t o r s to he used i n t h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n , together w i t h a r b i t r a r i l y  chosen ranges,  are  l i s t e d below: Detection Communications Transportation Manpower Equipment Facilities Information Planning  15 10 20 20 15 5 15 100  Specifications Detection: lo  Tower  S i n g l e tower v i s i o n over the e n t i r e area on a c l e a r day, w i t h the g r e a t e s t d i s t a n c e between towers being 30 m i l e s , i s valued a t  I n t e r s e c t i n g tower v i s i o n over 50 per cent of  the area i s valued at 2, or over 90 2„  per cent o f the a r e a ,  3.  Patrol A e r i a l - A v a i l a b l e d a i l y a i r p a t r o l over  e n t i r e area i s valued a t 3» i s worth 2 p o i n t s  Extra patrol after lightning  the  storms  0  Ground - P a t r o l s c a r r i e d out over the e n t i r e road system d a i l y are valued a t 2„  E x t r a horseback  or f o o t  p a t r o l s on t r a i l s i n remote country are worth 1 point,,  57-A Communication: 1.  Tower Radio or telephone  communication from each tower to  the c o n t r o l l i n g o f f i c e i s worth 3 p o i n t s . communication instruments 2.  E x i s t e n c e of both  i n each tower i s worth 1 p o i n t .  Aerial Patrol  Good r a d i o contact between a i r c r a f t and o f f i c e i s valued 3.  the  controlling  at 1 p o i n t .  Ground P a t r o l  Three (3)  p o i n t s are g i v e n i f s a t i s f a c t o r y r a d i o s are  mounted i n v e h i c l e s .  One  ( 1 ) p o i n t i s g i v e n i f r a d i o s or  field  phones are c a r r i e d by horse-mounted or f o o t patrolmen. Suppression Two constant  Crews  ( 2 ) p o i n t s are g i v e n i f s u p p r e s s i o n  r a d i o or telephone  d u r i n g both stand-by and  crews are i n  c o n t a c t w i t h the c o n t r o l l i n g  suppression a c t i o n .  office  58 Transportation: The  percentage o f the t o t a l burnable area  that  can  be reached w i t h i n p r e s c r i b e d  t r a v e l - t i m e l i m i t s determines  rating for this factor.  The  value  c r a f t must be considered  separately.  One  hundred per cent  wing a i r c r a f t and p o s s i b l e 20,  or 75  o f land equipment and  the  air-  coverage by h e l i c o p t e r s or f i x e d -  smoke-jumpers would be valued  at 15  out o f  the  per cent e f f e c t i v e , because i t i s i n e v i t a b l e  t h a t some f i r e s w i l l occur on days when a i r c r a f t cannot operate e f f e c t i v e l y due land  to high winds or smoke haze.  t r a n s p o r t warrants a value  o f 20,  T o t a l coverage by  In most cases both land  and  a i r t r a n s p o r t would be used i n the same f i r e - c o n t r o l u n i t .  The  a i r c r a f t would be used f o r t r a n s p o r t  to more remote  areas.  S i n c e a i r c r a f t perform a f u n c t i o n complementary to land the f u l l value of the l a t t e r must be assessed before i s made f o r the a i r c r a f t .  I t should  t r a n s p o r t , and  50  per cent o f the area i s covered by per cent by a i r c r a f t ,  aircraft  the work j u s t as w e l l . land  the r a t i n g would  2 p o i n t s f o r each 10 per cent land 1.5  assessment  not be expected that  w i l l be used where land equipment can do For example, i f 50  transport,  coverage  -  p o i n t s f o r each 10 per cent a i r coverage -  be: 10 7.5  17.5 Manpower: The  manpower f a c t o r i s not r a t e d so much on the s i z e  59 o f the l a b o r f o r c e , as on the q u a n t i t y ,  q u a l i t y , and  ness of the permanent and  men  o r g a n i z a t i o n , and  temporary key  close proximity  c o n t r o l f o r c e s and  i n the  l a r g e numbers o f men.  - One  fire-control  of other a v a i l a b l e f i r e These f o u r f a c t o r s  each have a maximum r a t i n g of 5 or a t o t a l o f Quantity  prepared-  ( 1 ) p o i n t should  be  20. given f o r a  complement of manpower employed i n each of the  full  following  categories: 1. 2. 3.  Lookout observers D i s p a t c h e r s and t r a n s p o r t equipment d r i v e r s C h i e f F i r e Warden and enough Wardens so that one would be a v a i l a b l e f o r every f i r e s t a r t i n g under average c o n d i t i o n s S e l e c t e d f i r e bosses and l i n e bosses S e l e c t e d pump o p e r a t o r s , timekeepers, camps t a f f , and equipment o p e r a t o r s .  k. 5.  Quality - Rating the q u a n t i t y r a t i n g . f a c t o r s described planner,  the men  minimum p e r s o n a l operations.  One  f o r q u a l i t y can be no  greater  ( 1 ) p o i n t i s given f o r each o f  above i f , i n the e s t i m a t i o n o f the  inadequacies i n c a r r y i n g out  In most cases the  fire-control  fire-control  s a l a r y o f f e r e d w i l l d i c t a t e the  f o r each c l a s s .  Preparedness - T r a i n i n g and  experience  represent  preparedness of personnel f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l a c t i o n .  The  the  are o f s a t i s f a c t o r y c a l i b e r to keep to a  q u a l i t y of employee obtained  periods  than  Short  o f t r a i n i n g o f t e n s u b s t i t u t e f o r years of e x p e r i e n c e .  employee o f g r e a t e s t value  experience and  n o r m a l l y has  both p r a c t i c a l  intensive training.  Manpower, i n each of the above c a t e g o r i e s , can have a maximum r a t i n g of 1.  For the  sake of f u r t h e r break-down i n  60 rating,  each " r a t i n g p o i n t " i s a r b i t r a r i l y d i v i d e d  credits.  Each season of experience, or  worth 1 c r e d i t .  One  into  10  two-weeks t r a i n i n g  is  ( 1 ) p o i n t of r a t i n g i s obtained i f the  average f o r a manpower category i s at l e a s t 10 experience training credits. ed  i n any  proportionally The  quantity  l i m i t of 10 c r e d i t average i s exceed-  manpower category, the  However, i f the  i s 5.  I f the  r a t i n g of 1 i s not  c r e d i t average i s below 10, reduced.  and  The  maximum r a t i n g  preparedness r a t i n g  can  be no  the  increased.  rating  is  f o r preparedness  h i g h e r than  the  rating. Other F i r e - C o n t r o l  p r o x i m i t y of another f o r e s t r a t i n g of 3?  and  F o r c e s and  Men  - The  close  f i r e - c o n t r o l f o r c e warrants a  an u n l i m i t e d supply of p o t e n t i a l  g i v e s an a d d i t i o n a l v a l u e of  firefighters  2.  Equipment: D e t e r m i n a t i o n of the best s u i t e d  f o r use  host of f a c t o r s . t o o l s are existing  and  q u a n t i t y of equipment  i n a f i r e - c o n t r o l unit  The  transportation  i s influenced  e s s e n t i a l requirements f o r f i r e  imposed by v a r i a b l e s  c h a r a c t e r of the  type and  such as f o r e s t f u e l s ,  facilities,  desirable  equipment.  topography,  cost,  limitations.  f i r e - c o n t r o l planner and  combination determined f o r hand and  self-propelled  fighting  methods of a t t a c k ,  by v a r i o u s other p r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s and the  a  type of crew o r g a n i z a t i o n ,  f i r e - f i g h t i n g labor,  These should a l l be weighed by  by  power t o o l s  These g e n e r a l equipment types  have d i f f e r i n g v a l u e s on d i f f e r e n t areas.  For  the  the and  may  purpose o f  61 t h i s o u t l i n e they w i l l be g i v e n equal r a t i n g . rating i s  Maximum p o s s i b l e  15. Hand Tools - A q u a n t i t y o f hand t o o l s , back pack  pumps, and camp equipment s u f f i c i e n t to "cover" every expected  firefighter  to be working on f i r e s under the worst p o s s i b l e c o n d i -  t i o n s r e c e i v e s a r a t i n g o f 5.  Otherwise,  the r a t i n g i s propor-  t i o n a l to the q u a n t i t y o f equipment on hand as compared to that s p e c i f i e d above. Power Tools - The requirement  f o r power t o o l s i s  dependent on t h e i r u s e f u l n e s s i n a p a r t i c u l a r unit. ing  fire-control  Adequate numbers of power pumps, power saws, and  trench-  u n i t s should r a t e 5 p o i n t s . S e l f - p r o p e l l e d Equipment - T r a c t o r dozers,  tankers,  f i r e t r u c k s , and a i r c r a f t a b l e to drop l i q u i d s on f i r e s r e c e i v e a r a t i n g o f 5 i f two for  every  100,000  u n i t s o f d i f f e r e n t types are  available  a c r e s under p r o t e c t i o n .  Facilities: F i r e - c o n t r o l f a c i l i t i e s , generally constructed i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f the occurrence o f f i r e s , may type i n d i f f e r e n t areas.  vary i n value  Depending on the two  and  main i n f l u e n c i n g  f a c t o r s , topography and f u e l types, two k i n d s o f f i r e - c o n t r o l f a c i l i t i e s can be used e f f e c t i v e l y .  These are f i r e  and water storage tanks or p i t s or w e l l s . is  The  total  breaks, rating  5. F i r e breaks c o n s t r u c t e d around areas o f f a s t  spreading  f u e l s , h i g h hazard, and v a l u a b l e i n s t a l l a t i o n s warrant a v a l u e of  2.  62 A r t i f i c i a l water sources c o n s t r u c t e d i n areas where hazards  and v a l u e s are h i g h and/or i n the v i c i n i t y o f  existing  l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s warrant a v a l u e o f 3. Information P l a n n i n g : P l a n s f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l should have at l e a s t following information.  The f i r s t  i n w r i t t e n form, the r e s t handled 1.  the  f o u r Items should be  prepared  by c h a r t s and/or maps.  Statement o f f i r e - c o n t r o l p o l i c y  and  outline  o f c o o p e r a t i v e f i r e - c o n t r o l agreements. 2.  Statement o f d u t i e s and r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s o f key fire-control  3.  personnel.  D e t a i l e d equipment d i s t r i b u t i o n essentially  an i n v e n t o r y o f a l l f i r e - c o n t r o l  equipment on hand, and k„  i t s location.  F o r e s t - f i r e - d a n g e r measurement ing  lists—this is  details—describ-  the methods by which the f i r e  danger  i n f o r m a t i o n i s obtained and put i n t o a form u s e f u l to the f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n . 5.  Fire history map  map—fires  are recorded on  a c c o r d i n g to o r i g i n , cause,  this  time, date,  and  area-burned. 6.  V i s i b l e area m a p — t h i s map  shows the area  actually  seen from l o o k o u t s . 7.  F u e l type map--this map  bears i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g  c o n t i n u i t y , d e n s i t y , and arrangement o f v a r i o u s f u e l s , and  t h e i r r e s i s t a n c e to l i n e c o n s t r u c t i o n .  8.  Transport r o u t e s and t r a v e l time zone map-t h i s map s y s t e m a t i c a l l y  l a y s out the r o u t e s  of t r a v e l , and the time r e q u i r e d point 9.  t o reach any  i n the c o n t r o l u n i t .  Personnel and equipment d i s t r i b u t i o n map— t h i s map shows the r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n o f a l l manpower and equipment.  10.  F i r e - f i g h t i n g f a c i l i t i e s m a p — t h i s map shows n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l water s u p p l i e s ,  fire  breaks, and b a r r i e r s e t c . . 11.  A e r i a l photograph index m a p — t h i s map f a c i l i t a t e s r a p i d s e l e c t i o n and o r i e n t a t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e a e r i a l photographs.  12.  F i r e - c o n t r o l step-up p l a n — t h i s prepared as a s e r i e s o f c h a r t s organization  information i s to show the  to be used f o r v a r i o u s  types and  sizes of f i r e s . 13.  D a i l y preparedness c h a r t — t h i s c h a r t  i s usually  drawn up on a blackboard f o r the purpose o f assembling i n one p l a c e , pertaining day  a l l that  information  to f i r e - c o n t r o l that changes from  to day.  Each o f the above r e c e i v e a r a t i n g o f one ( 1 ) . Two (2) p o i n t s o f r a t i n g should be g i v e n f o r r e g u l a r r e v i s i o n of this  information.  use and  6»+ Prevention The o b j e c t i v e of f o r e s t f i r e p r e v e n t i o n i s to reduce the number o f man-caused f i r e s to the lowest p r a c t i c a b l e minimum.  The l i m i t s or standards  have been determined  i m p l i e d by " p r a c t i c a b l e minimum"  i n a g e n e r a l way  by c o n j e c t u r e .  Because o f  the l a c k o f a b e t t e r method, the c a l c u l a t e d estimate  will  probably remain as the means f o r c a r r y i n g out t h i s assessment f o r some time. By v i r t u e of the nature of f o r e s t f i r e  prevention  e f f o r t s , any proposed p r e v e n t i o n standards must be i n terms o f both trends and  s p e c i f i c values.  expressed  In s p i t e o f the  assumed i n t a n g i b l e nature o f p r e v e n t i o n , the problems must be p i n - p o i n t e d and means.  solved i n d i v i d u a l l y by the best a p p l i c a b l e  Standards  should ensure that s p e c i f i c problems are  a l l c o n s i d e r e d and d e a l t w i t h .  At the same time, the  immediate r e s u l t s must be assessed  to determine,  as  total  realisti-  c a l l y as p o s s i b l e , the v a l u e r e c e i v e d i n i n c r e a s e d p r o t e c t i o n f o r each d o l l a r spent on p r e v e n t i o n . Two  standards w i l l be presented.  One,  arbitrarily  c a l l e d the s p e c i f i c p r e v e n t i o n standard, d e a l s w i t h c a u s a t i v e agencies o f f o r e s t f i r e s .  individual  The o t h e r , c a l l e d  the  g e n e r a l p r e v e n t i o n standard, assesses the trend o f e f f o r t r e s u l t s i n f o r e s t - f i r e prevention. S p e c i f i c Prevention Reduction  Standard  i n number o f man-caused f i r e s can  be  and  65 a t t a i n e d by thoroughly a n a l y z i n g c a u s a t i v e agencies and a p p l y ing of  remedial measures to them.  To a t t a i n a s a t i s f a c t o r y degree  f i r e p r e v e n t i o n , a t t e n t i o n must f i r s t be focussed on the  people who s t a r t them, and then each and every a v a i l a b l e measure must be extended fire  starter.  remedial  to apply to each and every c l a s s o f  The standard i s a t t a i n e d when these f i r e  are s p e c i f i e d and subjected to a l l remedial measures.  starters Most  man-caused f i r e s a r e s t a r t e d by: Campers Fishermen Picnickers Travellers C o n s t r u c t i o n Workers Miners F o r e s t Workers Ranchers Hunters Farmers I n d u s t r i a l and U t i l i t y Incendiaries.  Employees  The most e f f e c t i v e remedial measures a r e : Education L e g i s l a t i o n and R e g u l a t i o n s Law Enforcement An a d d i t i o n a l measure, hazard r e d u c t i o n , serves i n both p r e s u p p r e s s i o n and d i r e c t p r e v e n t i o n .  Prevention of a l l  man-caused f i r e s or e l i m i n a t i o n o f a l l r i s k i s i m p o s s i b l e . To minimize  the r i s k , hazards must be removed or reduced.  Commonly a p p l i e d hazard removal measures a r e : s l a s h d i s p o s a l , and s o i l railroads.  snag  falling,  s t e r i l i z a t i o n along highways and  R i s k may be concentrated by establishment o f p i c n i c  and camp grounds.  66 General P r e v e n t i o n Increased  Standard  incidence of f i r e s  i s due  to i n c r e a s e d  use of f o r e s t l a n d s , f o l l o w i n g p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e . some index o f f i r e hazard content  Therefore,  such as days w i t h a f u e l - m o i s t u r e  of 8 per cent at 8 s 0 0 A.M.  ( r i s k days), combined  with  p o p u l a t i o n numbers, can be used to g i v e an i n d i c a t i o n of  the  number o f f i r e s  year.  that can be expected  to s t a r t i n any  Once t h i s index i s e s t a b l i s h e d , i t i s reasonable that any  one  to assume  marked v a r i a t i o n from the number o f f i r e s  expected,  i s a t t r i b u t a b l e to the e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s e d or reduced  prevention  action. A g e n e r a l standard  f o r f i r e p r e v e n t i o n can be  ed i f the above premise i s accepted. c e r t a i n standard of  establish-  I t can be assumed t h a t a  of p r e v e n t i o n i s a t t a i n e d i f the trend of number  f i r e s o c c u r r i n g each year i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h hazard  than p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e .  rather  T h i s i n d i c a t e s that the e f f e c t  of  p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e on f i r e i n c i d e n c e has been e l i m i n a t e d .  A  h i g h e r standard o f p r e v e n t i o n i s i n e f f e c t i f the number o f f i r e s i s c o n t i n u a l l y reduced and  e x i s t i n g f i r e hazard.  standard,  i n spite of increasing population  In s e l e c t i n g a g e n e r a l  prevention  the f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n determines whether i t  wants to c o n t i n u a l l y reduce the number of f i r e s even though f o r e s t use  i s i n c r e a s i n g , or whether i t w i l l be  satisfied  merely compensate f o r the e f f e c t of i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n .  to In  e i t h e r case, c o n t i n u a l l y i n c r e a s i n g p r e v e n t i o n e f f o r t i s necessary.  Any  degree of p r e v e n t i o n l e s s than d e s c r i b e d above  i s normally  considered  unacceptable.  67 A TEST OF MAJOR STANDARDS The Study Area The southeast  data used i n t h i s study  p e r t a i n t o that p a r t o f  Vancouver I s l a n d encompassed by B r i t i s h Columbia  F o r e s t S e r v i c e Ranger D i s t r i c t s 21, Duncan; and  2 3 , Langford;  24-, Cowichan Lake, l o c a t e d i n the Vancouver F o r e s t  ( F i g u r e 1). hazard graphic  This area i s recognized  as having  a high  District fire  (MacQueen, 194-6), and a v a r i e t y o f c l i m a t i c and p h y s i o features.  acres o f productive  The area comprises approximately 984-,000 and non-productive f o r e s t l a n d , and  a c r e s o f non-forested  50,000  land.  F i r e - c o n t r o l on the study  area i s c a r r i e d out by both  the B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e and o t h e r p a r t i e s r e f e r r e d to  h e r e a f t e r as "other  agencies"  (usually forest industries).  A c t u a r i a l Standard The difficulty be  l a c k o f s u f f i c i e n t p e r t i n e n t r e c o r d s , and  o f e x t r a c t i n g the r e q u i r e d i n f o r m a t i o n , proved t o  the major problem i n t h i s study.  ed from the most a u t h e n t i c  sources,  A l l i n f o r m a t i o n was o b t a i n but i t was obvious that  most o f these r e c o r d s were not kept with  a view t o c a r r y i n g out  t h i s type o f a n a l y s i s . The  f o l l o w i n g i s a d e s c r i p t i o n o f the s i x f a c t o r s  used i n a s s e s s i n g f i r e - c o n t r o l requirements on an a c t u a r i a l basis.  These are:  cost of suppression  and damage ( B r i t i s h  FIGURE 1  MAP SHOWING STUDY AREA  68  Vancouver Island  Fig- I  I inch = 27 miles  M A P SHOWING S T U D Y A R E A  69 Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e ) , p r e s u p p r e s s i o n overhead  (British  Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e ) , t o t a l c o s t o f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n and s u p p r e s s i o n ( a l l agencies) per cent o f r i s k days, number o f fires,  population. Cost o f S u p p r e s s i o n and Damage ( B r i t i s h Columbia Forest Service) Cost o f s u p p r e s s i o n i s the c o s t o f d i r e c t  e f f o r t on a f i r e .  suppression  F i r e damage i s the l o s s i n v a l u e that i s  i n c u r r e d by any f o r e s t property as a r e s u l t o f f i r e . o n l y prudent  It is  these two c o s t s be considered at the same time,  s i n c e r e s u l t s are complementary. c o s t i t i s reasonable  With an i n c r e a s e i n s u p p r e s s i o n  to assume that reduced  damage would f o l l o w ;  c o n v e r s e l y , r e d u c t i o n i n s u p p r e s s i o n e f f o r t would be f o l l o w e d by i n c r e a s e d damage. Data f o r t h i s f a c t o r were o b t a i n e d from the "Summary of  Fires" f i l e  in Victoria.  i n the B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e O f f i c e s Suppression c o s t s have been submitted  Ranger i n charge o f the f i r e s , accurate.  and can be expected  by the to be f a i r l y  Damage v a l u e s , on the other hand, a r e estimated by  the D i s t r i c t Ranger o r h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e , guided by a damage a p p r a i s a l schedule o u t l i n e d i n the B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e P r o t e c t i o n Manual.  This schedule  i s revised at i n t e r -  v a l s o f about f i v e years, but the v a l u e s used are always extremely conservative. i s presented  An a b b r e v i a t e d v e r s i o n o f the c u r r e n t  i n the Appendix.  schedule  70 Presuppression  Overhead ( B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t  Service) T h i s expenditure  i s made f o r those f i r e - c o n t r o l  f u n c t i o n s c a r r i e d out before a f i r e s t a r t s . system used by  The  the F o r e s t S e r v i c e makes e x t r a c t i o n o f  f i g u r e s f o r t h i s f a c t o r f o r each Ranger D i s t r i c t Therefore,  i t was  Forest D i s t r i c t  the  impossible.  necessary to d e v i s e a means f o r e x t r a c t i n g  the i n f o r m a t i o n from the f i g u r e s presented  f o r the Vancouver  i n the F o r e s t S e r v i c e Annual Reports.  f i g u r e i n c l u d e s s a l a r i e s and ary f i r e - c o n t r o l personnel, o f t o o l s and  accounting  expenses of permanent and maintenance, o p e r a t i o n and  This temporpurchase  equipment, improvements, a i r c r a f t , p l a n n i n g  r e s e a r c h , hazard r e d u c t i o n , uniforms, and  miscellaneous  and expend-  itures. S i n c e trends were to be the prime c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h i s study, a simple  proportional a l l o c a t i o n of  expenditure  among the 26 Ranger D i s t r i c t s i n the Vancouver F o r e s t was  used.  F o r e s t S e r v i c e O f f i c e r s suggested the three  concerned r e c e i v e d more money than average. ledge,  e x t r a weight was  District Districts  Based on t h i s know-  given these three D i s t r i c t s by d i v i d i n g  the t o t a l s f o r the Vancouver F o r e s t D i s t r i c t by 8 r a t h e r 8.67.  The  than  l a t t e r f i g u r e would be used i f the expenditure  was  to be e q u a l l y a l l o c a t e d to each o f the 26 Ranger D i s t r i c t s . The  r e c o r d s f o r t h i s f a c t o r are entered  i n the F o r e s t  S e r v i c e Annual Report on a f i s c a l - y e a r b a s i s , from A p r i l 1 s t to March 3 1 s t .  However, s i n c e most f i r e - c o n t r o l c o s t s  are  71 i n c u r r e d d u r i n g the summer months, any c o r r e c t i o n made f o r t h i s d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c o s t s would not be worth the e f f o r t . T o t a l Cost o f P r e s u p p r e s s i o n and S u p p r e s s i o n (All  Agencies)  F i r e - c o n t r o l c o s t s to other agencies were obtained from the F o r e s t S e r v i c e Annual Report  t a b l e "Reported  mate E x p e n d i t u r e i n F o r e s t P r o t e c t i o n by Other  Approxi-  Agencies".  The c o s t s a p p l i c a b l e to the study area were determined  using  the p r o p o r t i o n a l - a l l o c a t i o n schedule used f o r P r e s u p p r e s s i o n Overhead ( B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e ) .  This derived  v a l u e was added to the sum o f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n and s u p p r e s s i o n expenditure by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e . No attempt  was made to account  f o r the overhead  expenditures made by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e Marine S t a t i o n and the Head O f f i c e i n V i c t o r i a s i n c e i t was assumed that these c o s t s would be p r o p o r t i o n a l to those a c t u a l l y used  f o r each year.  Per Cent o f R i s k Days R i s k days i n c l u d e d a l l with recorded f u e l  moisture  content below 8 per cent a t e i t h e r 8:00 A.M., Noon, or htOO P.M.  I n f o r m a t i o n f o r any r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t a t i o n was not taken  c o n s i s t e n t l y a t any one time d u r i n g the p e r i o d analyzed.  Inform-  a t i o n f o r the p e r i o d 1938- +3 was a v a i l a b l e from the Langford 1  Ranger S t a t i o n , Langford Lookout, Mount Benson Lookout, Mount P r e v o s t Lookout, L i t t l e Mountain Lookout, and Mount Matheson Lookout.  F o r the p e r i o d 19 + +-57 data from Langford 1  1  Lookout,  72 Mount Prevost Lookout and B a l d Lookout were used. the data from a l l sources were averaged  I n a l l cases  to give a s i n g l e  to r e p r e s e n t the per cent o f r i s k days f o r the e n t i r e  figure  study  area. Per cent o f r i s k days per year was i n t r o d u c e d to p r o v i d e a sound b a s i s f o r comparing years, because the number o f days during which readings were taken v a r i e d from year to year, and between r e g i s t e r i n g  stations.  Number o f F i r e s The number o f f i r e s o c c u r r i n g on the area was obtained from the B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e "Summary o f F i r e s " file. Population A p o p u l a t i o n summary  f o r the Southeast  p a r t o f Vancouv-  er I s l a n d was obtained f o r the years 19*+1, 1951, and 1956, from the Bureau o f Economics and S t a t i s t i c s i n V i c t o r i a . covered the Census D i s t r i c t s o f Sooke-Port  The summary  Renfrew, Lake  Cowichan, Duncan, and V i c t o r i a M e t r o p o l i t a n Area. Conversion t o 19^9 "Constant  Dollar"  Gormely (195*+) i n t r o d u c e d the concept o f the "constant d o l l a r " to f i r e - c o n t r o l a n a l y s i s . i n t h i s study to determine  D o l l a r c o n v e r s i o n s were made  comparative  values of expenditures.  A l l y e a r l y c o s t s were converted to "constant d o l l a r " amounts based  on the Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s Consumer P r i c e  TABLE 3 o F i r e S t a t i s t i c s f o r Southeast Vancouver Island (Duncan, Coviichan Lake, and Langford Ranger D i s t r i c t s ) OTHER AGENCIES B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e Costs Presuppression PresuppressSuppress- p l u s Suppressi o n Over- Suppion Plus i o n Cost Total head ression Damage Damage B.C.F.S. p l u s Others  Year  $35,896 32,81+6 27,690 31,198 2*+,9*+l  1938  1939 19*K)  19*+1 19h2 19*+3  19*+*+  19*1-5  19*+6  19>+7  19*+8  19*^9 1950 1951 1952 1953  195**1955 1956 1957  $*+6,5*f9 23,278 23,7*+! 1,882 25,67*+ 25,711 13,079 36,108 89,*+30 36,125 3^,189 33,126 3*f,30*+ 26,82i+ *+6,570 7,825 36,879 *+3,729 9,522 1+1,320 2 0 5,607 52,865 231,980 58,881+ i+,58*+ 35,851 3,796 7,279 35,069 63,9*+7 3*+,*+*+8 i+,665 35,720 33 65 ,, 03 00 00 *+5,132 36,500  $338,232  $38i+,781 $13^,131+ 32,592 37,272 *f,99*f 30,237 i+2,1+32 18,691 33,167 127 2,009 63,531 77,565 51,891 53,696 35,0^+7 1+0,617 70,580 90,91*+ 180,3*^ 75,*+32 277,952 31**-, 077 52,958 78,295 86,081+ 6i+,527 6i+, 199 91,351 9,329 67,913 17,152 51,709 83,853 95,*+38 193 87,657 9,715 9*^,613 199,392 300,220 92,02i+ 125,661 32i+,00 + 336 71,752 t+,920 287 68,179 *+,083 i+70 66,993 7,7*+9 2,001 131,729 65,9*+8 66 70,000 ^,731  $216,579 88,716 81,668 66,21+7  88, 978  161,2^+5  l  l l ^ l ^  73,839 196,118 l*+5,7*+6 l*+5,725 137,593 112,617 167,902  150,0M+ *+63,883 393 A92 lll,*+05 106,323 109,992 231,676 111,165  x  Average  x  59,597  79,517  Money Values have been converted to the 19*+9 "Constant D o l l a r " , S t a t i s t i c s Consumer P r i c e Index, 19*+9 base. 1  Per  x  Estimated  % of ConArea R i s k isumer No. o f Burn- Days P r i c e Fires ed Index Acres  ll+8  120 89 81 136 78 118 93 91  116 27 102 89 136 111 83 *f5  910  83 hk  1+21+ 36 1,512 165 5,591 8,731 *+5 185 129 1+87 lk9  92  2,026  *0  3*f  63 32 19  7  17  27 5  25  60.7  63.2 65.7 69.6 72.9 7*+. 2 7*+. 6 75.0 77.5  85,255  81+.8  97.0 100.0 102.9 113.7 116.5 115.5 116.2 116  128,039  'K  1 1 6 . £ 15*+, 613 116.5 91.5  122,537  based on the Dominion Bureau o f  Cent o f R i s k Days i s the average o f per cent o f r i s k day f i g u r e s s t a t i o n s on the study area, values.  7,97*+  1+6 31 2h 13 30 18 31 25 27 16 10 2h  Population  registered  at various  73 Index, 19*+9 base. understood  Further to t h i s v a l u a t i o n , i t must be  that Forest S e r v i c e costs were v i t a l l y a f f e c t e d i n  19*+8 and 1951 when basic wages f o r f i r e - f i g h t i n g were r a i s e d from 25 cents to 35 cents per hour and from 35 cents to 75 cents r e s p e c t i v e l y .  Furthermore, considerable f i r e - f i g h t i n g  was done by members of the Armed Forces during the war  years.  These costs were omitted from annual summaries of f i r e - c o n t r o l expenditure. Appraised damage was converted to the constant d o l l a r , but no adjustment was made f o r the f a c t that the a p p r a i s a l schedule used i n 1938,  compared to 1 9 5 7 , was more conservative  i n r e l a t i o n to e x i s t i n g values. Analysis The f a c t o r s analyzed i n t h i s study were chosen w i t h the purpose of assembling and assessing those measurable f a c t o r s which play a major r o l e i n the process of c o n t r o l l i n g f o r e s t fires.  The use of these f a c t o r s does not e l i m i n a t e the need  to consider the many other f i r e and f i r e - c o n t r o l i n f l u e n c e s . Instead, t h i s assessment should serve as a guide to the i n t e l l i g e n t and r e a l i s t i c assessment of each and every f a c t o r , so that the requirements  f o r j u s t i f i a b l e f i r e - c o n t r o l are  assessed as accurately and completely as humanly p o s s i b l e . This presentation includes a g r a p h i c a l representat i o n of the a c t u a r i a l approach to e s t a b l i s h i n g a primary c o n t r o l standard (Figure 2 ) , t i o n s of the graph.  fire-  and a d i s c u s s i o n of the i m p l i c a -  The d o u b t f u l accuracy of some of the  FIGURE 2  ACTUARIAL METHOD FOR ESTABLISHING FIRE CONTROL STANDARDS  500  Fig-2  450  ACTUARIAL METHOD FOR ESTABLISHING FIRE CONTROL  160  80  STANDARDS  400  T o t a l P r e s u p p r e s s i o n Plus Number of  —-tx  1940  951  1952  YEARS  For B C -  Forest  Service  and  Other  Agencies  Content Under  8 % )  Population Cost  of  Suppression  Presuppression  1939  Costs  Fires  P e r c e n t of R i s k D a y s ( M o i s t u r e  A  1938  Suppression  Plus D a m a g e  Overhead  (Converted to  (Converted to  1949  1949  Constant  Constant  Dollar)  Dollar)  1964  75 b a s i c data, and  the use of trends l i m i t s d i s c u s s i o n and  a n a l y s i s to g e n e r a l i t i e s . Number of F i r e s This f a c t o r was  i n t r o d u c e d to help v e r i f y the f a c t  that i n c i d e n c e of f i r e s and  the damage caused  c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to burning p o t e n t i a l .  by them i s  Burning  potential i s  the t o t a l e f f e c t of weather c o n d i t i o n s which c o n t r o l the chance o f f i r e s s t a r t i n g , spreading and causing damage. R e f e r r i n g to F i g u r e 2, i t can be seen that on Southeast  Vancouver I s l a n d i n c i d e n c e of f i r e s i s almost  d i r e c t l y i n f l u e n c e d by the per cent o f r i s k days. the chances of i n c r e a s e d f i r e damage and c o s t o f vary w i t h the number o f f i r e s s t a r t e d .  In t u r n , suppression  However, the  s h i p between number of f i r e s and c o s t of damage and  relationsuppression  i s not as c o n s i s t e n t as that between number of f i r e s and  per  cent of r i s k days. Per Cent of R i s k Days The number o f r i s k days o c c u r r i n g i n any year has d e f i n i t e i n f l u e n c e on the number and damage caused, and  s i z e of f i r e s , amount o f  the c o s t o f e f f e c t i n g f i r e c o n t r o l .  i s extreme v a r i a t i o n i n f i r e damage and any  There  suppression costs with  s i z a b l e change i n per cent o f r i s k days.  that any  a  This indicates  i n c r e a s e i n r i s k days causes c o s t o f s u p p r e s s i o n and  damage to f o l l o w a g e o m e t r i c a l p r o g r e s s i o n .  T h i s i s probably  76 due  to the g r e a t e r chance o f having  a long p e r i o d o f continuous  r i s k or drought e f f e c t when a g r e a t e r number o f r i s k days occur. The  e f f e c t o f these drought p e r i o d s i s to i n c r e a s e the burning  p o t e n t i a l w i t h each s u c c e s s i v e r i s k day.  A r i s k day o c c u r r i n g  immediately a f t e r a p e r i o d o f heavy r a i n s would not be expected to e x h i b i t the same buring p o t e n t i a l as a r i s k day o c c u r r i n g a f t e r a long p e r i o d o f drought.  In a d d i t i o n , with  number o f r i s k days, the chance o f having  f i r e s burn through  long r i s k p e r i o d s i n c r e a s e s , s i n c e f i r e s burning p e r i o d s u s u a l l y i n c r e a s e i n i n t e n s i t y with The  greater  d u r i n g drought  s u c c e s s i v e r i s k days.  arrangement o f r i s k days throughout the f i r e  season can be as important  as the number o f r i s k days.  of 10 r i s k days grouped i n t o a continuous  A total  drought p e r i o d can  l e a d to f a r more d i s a s t r o u s e f f e c t s than 2 r i s k days i n t e r m i t t e n t l y spread  over the e n t i r e season.  The c o n d i t i o n o f  the f o r e s t v e g e t a t i o n a l s o p l a y s a p a r t i n i n f l u e n c i n g the e f f e c t o f r i s k days.  A r i s k day d u r i n g a p e r i o d when most o f  the ground v e g e t a t i o n i s dead has g r e a t e r burning p o t e n t i a l than the same weather c o n d i t i o n s during  the growing p e r i o d  when most v e g e t a t i o n i s green. The probably  combination o f c o n d i t i o n s o u t l i n e d above i s  the main reason f o r the e r r a t i c r e l a t i o n s h i p between  per cent o f r i s k days and the c o s t o f s u p p r e s s i o n and damage. Population The  e f f e c t o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e on the other  77 f a c t o r s s t u d i e d i s not r e a d i l y apparent  from the graph.  P r e s u p p r e s s i o n Overhead ( B r i t i s h Columbia Forest Service) Based on the 19^9 "constant d o l l a r " , expenditures by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e were almost years 1938 and 1957.  presuppression equal f o r the  An a p p r e c i a b l e e f f e c t i v e i n c r e a s e was  made d u r i n g the f i v e years f o l l o w i n g 19*+6.  This increase  might have been a t t r i b u t a b l e to the i n f l u e n c e o f the r e p o r t a r i s i n g from the 19*+5 Royal Commission o f F o r e s t r y i n B r i t i s h Columbia, o f which the s o l e commissioner was C h i e f J u s t i c e Gordon S l o a n .  The maximum e f f e c t i v e expenditure made i n  1951? on the other hand, c o u l d have r e s u l t e d from the i n c r e a s e d overhead  expenditures made i n v o l u n t a r i l y d u r i n g that c o s t l y  firefighting  year.  Though e f f e c t i v e spending has remained v i r t u a l l y a t a constant l e v e l through the years, the cumulative  effect of  p r e s u p p r e s s i o n expenditures must not be overlooked. accumulation o f equipment and f a c i l i t i e s purchased has l e f t  The each year  the f i r e - c o n t r o l f o r c e with a g r e a t e r i n v e n t o r y o f  firefighting facilities  than e x i s t e d i n 1938.  But, w i t h  i n c r e a s e d i n v e n t o r y , t o t a l d e p r e c i a t i o n and maintenance c o s t s increase.  I t i s t h e o r e t i c a l l y c o n c e i v a b l e that i f the present  l e v e l o f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n expenditure i s maintained  f o r a great  number o f years, a l l the money would e v e n t u a l l y be used up f o r maintenance.  78  B e t t e r f i r e - f i g h t i n g equipment, i n c r e a s e d and more knowledge of f i r e s and probably played an important  f i r e - c o n t r o l methods have  r o l e i n producing  f o r money spent each s u c c e s s i v e year. e f f e c t e x i s t s , however, i n t h a t f i r e i n c r e a s e d , thereby minimizing  technology,  greater returns  A counterbalancing s t a r t i n g agencies have  the e f f e c t i v e r e t u r n s per  dollar  spent f o r p r e s u p p r e s s i o n . Cost of S u p p r e s s i o n and Damage ( B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e ) Most o f the c o s t l y " f i r e y e a r s " can be a t t r i b u t e d to occurrence and/or arrangement or c o n t i n u i t y of f i r e - r i s k days. The year 1 9 ^ 5 serves as a good example where arrangement, and not number of days, was  probably  c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s that there was  the governing  factor.  Another  a shortage o f manpower f o r  f i g h t i n g f i r e s toward the end of the Second World War.  Further-  more, Armed Forces manoeuvres were o f t e n c a r r i e d out i n remote areas where a c c i d e n t a l f i r e s c o u l d not be e x t i n g u i s h e d q u i c k l y . Apparently,  e f f e c t i v e p r e s u p p r e s s i o n spending  F o r e s t S e r v i c e has not been s u f f i c i e n t  by  the  to keep the c o s t o f  s u p p r e s s i o n p l u s damage w i t h i n d e s i r a b l e l i m i t s d u r i n g h i g h r i s k years.  During  the low r i s k years, p r e s u p p r e s s i o n  has been more rewarding,  spending  as i s e x e m p l i f i e d i n the years 1 9 5 3 - 5 7 .  I t appears t h a t i f the per cent o f r i s k days i s under 20 i n any year, the e x i s t i n g l e v e l o f f i r e - c o n t r o l performance i s a b l e to keep cost of s u p p r e s s i o n p l u s damage w e l l w i t h i n  79  acceptable  limits. T o t a l Cost o f P r e s u p p r e s s i o n and S u p p r e s s i o n (All  Agencies)  The most n o t a b l e f e a t u r e o f the graph f o r t o t a l c o s t of  p r e s u p p r e s s i o n and s u p p r e s s i o n by a l l agencies i s that i t  f l u c t u a t e s almost  d i r e c t l y w i t h per cent o f r i s k days.  This  can probably be a t t r i b u t e d to the i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f expenditures made by "other agencies" such as l a r g e companies and other p r i v a t e o p e r a t o r s i n the a r e a .  The weight o f the expenditures  made by these concerns  I s o b v i o u s l y enough to mould the t o t a l  fire-control picture.  This can be p o i n t e d out as a good example  of  the r e s u l t s that can be a t t a i n e d by i n t r o d u c i n g f i r e - c o n t r o l  o r g a n i z a t i o n s that have f i n a n c i a l f l e x i b i l i t y  inherent i n t h e i r  make-up. Shown g r a p h i c a l l y , the c o n t r i b u t i o n o f "other to  agencies"  the f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t on southeast Vancouver I s l a n d i s  commendable.  However, some o f the p r e s u p p r e s s i o n c o s t can be  a t t r i b u t e d to v o l u n t a r y c l o s u r e o f f o r e s t o p e r a t i o n s , which a r e o f t e n c o s t l y and a r e charged,  i n p a r t , to f i r e p r e v e n t i o n .  In  addition ,- when a c t u a l s u p p r e s s i o n a c t i o n i s c a r r i e d out, the 1  f i r e - f i g h t e r s employed by the "other agencies" are payed a t t h e i r "going  s a l a r y " , which i s i n most cases almost  three  times  that p a i d to f i r e - f i g h t e r s employed by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e .  The  cost o f equipment and f a c i l i t i e s i s the same to a l l a g e n c i e s . I n g e n e r a l there i s no doubt that the f i r e - c o n t r o l equipment used by companies i n the study area has improved.the e n t i r e  80 fire-control picture. In s p i t e o f l a r g e t o t a l expenditures agencies,  i t i s obvious from the graph that  expenditure  made by a l l  presuppression  has not been high enough to completely  c o s t l y e f f e c t o f even a moderate f i r e year  such as  dampen the 1956.  Study o f Trends Trends based on known past r e s u l t s are used i n t h i s study  to attempt an i n t e l l i g e n t p r e d i c a t i o n o f d e s i r a b l e f i r e -  c o n t r o l performance. trends  I n s p i t e o f inadequacies,  the use o f  should be o f some value as a guide f o r o u t l i n i n g  fire-control  future  effort.  Trend l i n e s f o r the curves the l e a s t squares method.  i n F i g u r e 2 were f i x e d by  A d i r e c t p r o j e c t i o n o f trends was  made because the d o u b t f u l accuracy  o f much o f the b a s i c  data  d i d not warrant a more i n v o l v e d a n a l y s i s o f t r e n d s . Discussion The negative  trend l i n e f o r number o f f i r e s has g r e a t e r  slope than that o f any other f a c t o r .  has been from 108 f i r e s i n 1938  to 75 i n 1957.  The r e d u c t i o n The n e g a t i v e  slope o f the trend l i n e f o r per cent o f r i s k days i n d i c a t e s that t h i s f a c t o r i s l a r g e l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the trend i n number of f i r e s .  The more r a p i d r e d u c t i o n i n number o f f i r e s f u r t h e r  s u b s t a n t i a t e s the e a r l i e r p o s t u l a t i o n that change i n r i s k days causes other f a c t o r s to vary  geometrically.  A small change i n  81 per cent o f r i s k days appears to cause a b i g change i n number of  fires. The  e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n has been obscured  by the other, apparently  more prominent, f a c t o r s .  The degree o f negative r e s s i o n and damage trend l i n e , f o r r i s k days.  This probably  s l o p e , f o r the c o s t o f supp-  isa little  g r e a t e r than that  r e f l e c t s the i n f l u e n c e o f reduced  r i s k days, together with the gradual  increase i n presuppression  overhead and accumulated e f f e c t o f past p r e s u p p r e s s i o n The negative  spending.  trend l i n e f o r r i s k days may r e f l e c t a  change i n weather trend over the study area, or i t might be due  to changes that have been made i n f u e l - m o i s t u r e measurement  techniques  during the study p e r i o d .  The r e l o c a t i o n o f r e g i s t e r -  ing s t a t i o n s from time to time a l s o may have played  an important  p a r t i n a f f e c t i n g the t r e n d . The  trend l i n e f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l c o s t s by a l l agencies  has a high p o s i t i v e s l o p e .  However, i n view o f the p o i n t s  r a i s e d i n e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n on t h i s f a c t o r i t i s d o u b t f u l that the a c t u a l trend o f e f f e c t i v e spending i s q u i t e as h i g h as i s i n d i c a t e d by the l i n e . S e t t i n g the O b j e c t i v e The  f o l l o w i n g p r e s e n t a t i o n w i l l determine the l e v e l  of j u s t i f i a b l e p r e s u p p r e s s i o n  expenditure  by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e on the study a l l o w a b l e average o f area-burned  that should be made  area, and the corresponding  annually.  82 Presuppression  Expenditure  R e f e r r i n g t o F i g u r e 2, a p r o j e c t i o n o f e x i s t i n g trends f o r p r e s u p p r e s s i o n overhead and cost o f s u p p r e s s i o n p l u s damage shows that the trend l i n e s meet a t the 1968 base.  The  t o t a l "constant d o l l a r " value f o r these f a c t o r s a t t h i s p o i n t would be about 92,000 d o l l a r s .  Compared to the t o t a l  expendi-  t u r e o f 118,000 d o l l a r s f o r 1957 (as i n d i c a t e d by the trend lines),  t h i s i s a s u b s t a n t i a l saving.  Expenditure  f o r 1957  i s ^0,000 d o l l a r s f o r p r e s u p p r e s s i o n and 78,000 d o l l a r s f o r s u p p r e s s i o n p l u s damage.  I n 1968 the expenditure  f o r each  o f these f a c t o r s should be about ^6,000 d o l l a r s . Trend  l i n e s have been used f o r the purpose o f i l l u s -  t r a t i n g the a c t u a r i a l p r i n c i p l e , but they cannot be accepted without  question.  F o r example, the l i n e f o r c o s t o f s u p p r e s s i o n  p l u s damage probably  should f o l l o w a geometric  l e v e l l i n g out when optimum c o s t and expenditure  progression, i s reached.  T h i s e f f e c t w i l l be i n c r e a s e d as h i g h e r , and more r e a l i s t i c damage a p p r a i s a l schedules a r e adopted.  With a h i g h e r a p p r a i s a l  o f each acre burned, the l i n e f o r c o s t o f s u p p r e s s i o n p l u s damage r i s e s , even though the a c t u a l damage may be l e s s i n previous years.  than  Some compensation must he made f o r t h i s  e f f e c t when d i r e c t l y p r o j e c t e d trends a r e used. The d i s c u s s i o n has been i n terms o f a t t a i n i n g f i a b l e f i r e - c o n t r o l i n 1968.  justi-  J u s t i f i c a t i o n i s doubtful f o r  l e t t i n g present trends e x i s t i n t o the f u t u r e , i f o p p o r t u n i t y e x i s t s to speed up the p r o c e s s .  Cost o f s u p p r e s s i o n and damage  83 has been r e d u c i n g f a s t e r t h a n p r e s u p p r e s s i o n overhead has been increasing.  I t appears,  therefore, that presuppression  t u r e e q u a l t o c o s t o f s u p p r e s s i o n would be j u s t i f i e d .  expendiFurther  j u s t i f i c a t i o n l i e s i n t h e f a c t t h a t t h e v a l u e o f f o r e s t s and forest property i s c o n t i n u a l l y i n c r e a s i n g .  The h i g h e x p e c t a -  t i o n v a l u e o f a f o r e s t saved from f i r e today, may be s u f f i c i e n t cause t o i n c r e a s e p r e s u p p r e s s i o n spending above t h e l e v e l o f average c o s t o f s u p p r e s s i o n p l u s damage. Area-Burned The average area-burned 194-5-51 was 2373 a c r e s p e r y e a r .  d u r i n g t h e seven-year  peiiiod  During the six-year period  1952-57, i t was 1622 a c r e s p e r y e a r .  The F o r e s t S e r v i c e  a l l o t e d average t o t a l s o f 14-3,000 d o l l a r s and 132,000 d o l l a r s r e s p e c t i v e l y , f o r f i r e p r e s u p p r e s s i o n , s u p p r e s s i o n , and damage. The t o t a l accumulated  effect of fire-control effort  average-annual-area-burned  reduced  by 751 a c r e s .  The above r e s u l t s were p r o b a b l y l a r g e l y due t o fewer r i s k days d u r i n g t h e 1952-57 p e r i o d . maintained i n d e f i n i t e l y .  T h i s t r e n d cannot be  T h e r e f o r e , an area-burned  pattern  based on a v a i l a b l e s h o r t r e c o r d s must be accepted w i t h d i s c r e tion.  Furthermore,  the point o f d i m i n i s h i n g returns i s probably  b e i n g r a p i d l y approached, so f u t u r e g a i n s i n reduced  burned-area  w i l l n o t be as s i z a b l e as they have been i n t h e p a s t . I f area-burned  c o u l d be reduced by 751 a c r e s d u r i n g  the s i x - y e a r p e r i o d 194-9-5*+, t h e n i t c a n be c o n s e r v a t i v e l y  84assumed that a 750 acre r e d u c t i o n can be made i n the next 10-12  years.  T h i s r e d u c t i o n would p l a c e the average-annual  burn i n 1968 a t 970 a c r e s . aver age -annual burned-area  I n other words, the a l l o w a b l e a t optimum f i r e - c o n t r o l  would be 970 acres per year. attempt  However, there i s no reason why an  should not be made to a t t a i n  t h i s o b j e c t i v e sooner.  F i r e - C o n t r o l Standards I t was suggested of  expenditure  f o r 1958  above that a sum equal to the c o s t  s u p p r e s s i o n p l u s damage could be j u s t i f i a b l y spent f o r  p r e s u p p r e s s i o n each year, u n t i l the optimum l e v e l o f f i r e - c o n t r o l expenditure i s reached.  T h i s l e a d s to the a d o p t i o n o f the 1958  trend l i n e value f o r c o s t o f s u p p r e s s i o n p l u s damage as the j u s t i f i a b l e l e v e l o f current presuppression expenditures.  75,000  "constant d o l l a r " v a l u e would be equal to about  "current d o l l a r s " . The  87,000  T h i s standard would only be v a l i d f o r 1 9 5 8 .  standard f o r expenditure  a d j u s t e d every year.  The  should be reviewed  T h i s ensures  and, i f necessary,  that presuppression  overhead  i s always at the most e f f e c t i v e . l e v e l . The u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e f o r allowable-area-burned should be that area which corresponds with the optimum c o n t r o l expenditure, and appears  fire-  to be 970 acres per year.  85 Economic Standard T h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n i s based on the approach used Flint  (1928).  I t assesses the impact  of f i r e - c o n t r o l  by  spending  by the B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e on the study area. only v a r i a t i o n from F l i n t ' s method i s t h a t the bad are not excluded from the data. because 25  years  This a c t i o n i s j u s t i f i e d  per cent of the years i n the study p e r i o d were bad  f i r e years. of  fire  The  Furthermore,  such y e a r s .  Little  i t is futile  to i g n o r e the p r o b a b i l i t y  or nothing i s gained by  successfully  p r o t e c t i n g a young f o r e s t f o r ten or twenty years, then having i t burned because of o r g a n i z a t i o n inadequate the bad f i r e year.  to p r o t e c t i t i n  P r o t e c t i o n money, i n t e r e s t on i t , growing  stock, and use o f the s o i l , are a l l l o s t or wasted under s h o r t - s i g h t e d management.  such  A l l f i r e insurance companies r e c o g -  n i z e c o n f l a g r a t i o n danger and b u i l d up a s p e c i a l s u r p l u s to p r o v i d e f o r l o s s e s due  to i t .  Since the f o r e s t manager i s  p r i m a r i l y i n t e r e s t e d i n r e d u c i n g l o s s e s and b r i n g i n g a crop through to m a t u r i t y , i t would seem that he might as w e l l use up h i s " s u r p l u s " on p r e s u p p r e s s i o n a c t i o n , so t h a t the c o n t r o l f o r c e i s designed  to meet the bad  years m a t e r i a l i z e suddenly w i t h l i t t l e  f i r e year.  warning and  fireThese  little  o p p o r t u n i t y to q u i c k l y o r g a n i z e an adequate emergency f o r c e to cope w i t h them. The data, d i v i d e d i n t o k f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d s , are presented  i n Table  86 1938-4-2  194-3-4-7  194-8-52  1953-57  T o t a l Cost o f S u p p r e s s i o n P l u s Damage  5 + +,059  525,552  74-8,529  87,4-31  T o t a l Cost o f P r e s u p p r e s s i o n , Suppressi o n , P l u s Damage  696,630  701,4-34-  974-,328  263,678  Period  TABLE 4-.  —  1  l  T o t a l "Constant D o l l a r " F i r e - C o n t r o l E x p e n d i t u r e s by F i v e - y e a r P e r i o d s These v a l u e s , p l o t t e d i n F i g u r e 3 . , a r e compared to  the type o f r e s u l t s obtained by F l i n t  (1928)  i n a similar  study. T h i s method shows no c o n s i s t e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p p a t t e r n e i t h e r between s u c c e s s i v e f i v e - y e a r p e r i o d s and t o t a l c o s t , o r between i n c r e a s e d p r e s u p p r e s s i o n spending f i r e cost.  fire  and t o t a l  The only c o n c l u s i o n that can be drawn from the  r e s u l t s i s that past p r e s u p p r e s s i o n spending h i g h enough to s a t i s f a c t o r i l y forest f i r e s .  has not been  i n f l u e n c e the c o s t s caused by  U n f o r t u n a t e l y , there i s no way to determine the  e f f e c t past spending  has had. Regardless  o f the unmeasurable  good e f f e c t s o f p r e s u p p r e s s i o n , i t can be s a f e l y concluded past p r e s u p p r e s s i o n spending  has not been adequate to meet the  p e r i o d i c a l l y extreme f i r e c o n d i t i o n s e x i s t e n t on southeast Vancouver I s l a n d .  that  FIGURE 3  ECONOMIC THEORY METHOD FOR ESTABLISHING FIRE-CONTROL STANDARDS  ipoo  1948-52  r  ECONOMIC THEORY  METHOD  ESTABLISHING  FIRE  FOR CONTROL  STARDARDS  e-1948-52  BC-  FOREST  SERVICE  -G— Cost of Suppression plus Damage -*-  Cost of Presuppression, Supp'ession plus Damage Type of Curves obtained by Flint ( 1 9 2 8 ) in a similar Study  150  THOUSAND  DOLLARS  PRESUPPRESSION  OVERHEAD  88 Area-Burned Knowledge o f the area o f d i f f e r e n t f o r e s t types, and the v a l u e s i n Table 2 a r e the only i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d f o r the p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n o f the burned-area B e a l l (194-9).  standard proposed by  Data f o r the d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e f o r e s t  type  d i s t r i b u t i o n were e x t r a c t e d from B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t Inventory r e p o r t s dated 1953.  No d i s t i n c t i o n was made between  p r o d u c t i v e and non-productive s i t e s .  The reason f o r t h i s was  t h a t where low-value areas a r e s c a t t e r e d through p r o d u c t i v e l a n d s , the degree o f p r o t e c t i o n g i v e n the whole would normally have t o be governed by the h i g h v a l u e a r e a s . Land  c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by f o r e s t types on the study area  i s as f o l l o w s : P r o d u c t i v e and Non-Productive  Fir Hemlock Cedar. Balsam Other Non-Forested  Acres  315,000 266,000 236,000 108,000 59.000  984-, 000 50.000  50.000 1,034-, 000  The f o l l o w i n g i s the c a l c u l a t i o n o f a c c e p t a b l e average-annual burned-area f o r Zone 2):  (percentages from Table 2, column  89 P r o d u c t i v e and Non-Productive  Fir  Hemlock Cedar Balsam Other Non-Forested Total  Acres  .12$ x 315,000 .12$ x 266,000 .10$ x 236,000 .12$ x 108,000 .12$ x 59,000  378 319 236 130  .70$  350  x  71  50,000  The a l l o w a b l e percentage was  Forest  f o r "Other"  forest  113^ 350  types  a r b i t r a r i l y chosen as being an average f o r a l l types. S t r i c t a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s o b j e c t i v e would r e q u i r e  the f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n to adapt i t s e l f each area by p r o v i d i n g p r o t e c t i o n at d i f f e r e n t sity i n different  p a r t s of the d i s t r i c t .  would be a d i f f i c u l t  task.  may  l e v e l s o f inten-  In most cases  this  However, i n l o c a t i o n s where h i g h  v a l u e and low value areas are w e l l segregated it  to the needs o f  geographically,  be p o s s i b l e to apply a p p r o p r i a t e p r o t e c t i o n measures to  each area  individually.  90 Summary and Comparison of R e s u l t s Three major standards were t e s t e d , u s i n g a common study area and ial  standard  study p e r i o d .  The r e s u l t s show that the a c t u a r -  g i v e s the most complete a n a l y s i s o f the many  factors affecting fire-control. standard  i n d i c a t e that d u r i n g the 1958  F o r e s t S e r v i c e expenditure o f presuppression. 1958  87,000  f i r e season a t o t a l  dollars i s desirable for  In comparison, the present t r e n d shows t h a t  p r e s u p p r e s s i o n expenditure  50,000  The c a l c u l a t i o n s f o r t h i s  "current d o l l a r s " .  can be expected  The d i f f e r e n c e o f  to be about  37,000  dollars i s  the amount by which c u r r e n t p r e s u p p r e s s i o n expenditure  could  be j u s t i f i a b l y i n c r e a s e d . The  r e s u l t s obtained through  use o f the economic  approach were of value only to i n d i c a t e that p r e s u p p r e s s i o n expenditure made by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e i n the past has not been e f f e c t i v e enough to p r o v i d e a d e s i r a b l e degree o f f i r e - c o n t r o l on the study  area.  The allowable-annual-burned-area a c t u a r i a l approach was r e s u l t , ihQh  acres.  970 a c r e s .  determined  13  the  B e a l l ' s method gave as a  By comparison, a c t u a l  burned-area i n the l a s t  by  years was  2026  average-annual-  a c r e s (from Table  3).  The a c t u a r i a l standard i s a p p a r e n t l y the best method a v a i l a b l e f o r c a l c u l a t i n g the l e v e l o f j u s t i f i a b l e  fire-control  e f f o r t , i n l i g h t o f the r e c o r d s a v a i l a b l e f o r the study the other two  standards  area,  t e s t e d , though t h e o r e t i c a l l y sound, are  91 a p p a r e n t l y e i t h e r out-dated  or can only he used  i n specific  instances. The allowable-annual-burn determined o u t l i n e d by B e a l l (19*+9) was a c t u a r i a l standard.  g r e a t e r than allowed by  i n 19^9  i s f a r too  to meet the needs of f o r e s t management today. brought  the  This supports the popular o p i n i o n that the  a l l o w a b l e - b u r n schedule prepared  was  by the method  liberal  I f the  up to date, the method would probably  schedule  serve, as a  check on the r e s u l t s obtained by the a c t u a r i a l method. S i n c e B e a l l ' s method only d e a l s w i t h p h y s i c a l  factors,  such as r i s k and hazard, by f o r e s t types, and a very g e n e r a l assessment of f o r e s t v a l u e s , i t has d o u b t f u l v a l u e as an  over-  a l l f i r e - c o n t r o l standard.  pro-  T h i s standard was  originally  posed as an o v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e , to be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r a monetary evaluation of j u s t i f i a b l e f i r e - c o n t r o l .  However, i t appears  to be f u t i l e to ignore the d i r e c t d o l l a r v a l u e s p r o t e c t e d , and to o v e r l o o k the d i r e c t d o l l a r value o f any damage r e s u l t i n g from f o r e s t f i r e s .  I n choosing between the area-burned  and a monetary standard f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l , a t l e a s t one d e c i s i o n must be made.  standard major  I t must be decided whether the purpose  o f management i s to p r o t e c t the f o r e s t p r o p e r t y w i t h p h y s i c a l v a l u e s , or monetary v a l u e s as the prime c o n s i d e r a t i o n .  It i s  t r u e that one bears d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e on the o t h e r , however, the c h o i c e l i e s between d i r e c t or i n d i r e c t assessment of  fire-  c o n t r o l needs. A necessary f u n c t i o n i s served by the s e p a r a t e l y c a l c u l a t e d annual-allowable-burn when i t i s used as a complement  92  to the economic theory.  S i n c e the economic theory only d e a l s  w i t h d o l l a r v a l u e s , i t i s necessary  to use some method such as  B e a l l s to convert the monetary o b j e c t i v e s i n t o terms o f 1  allowable-burned-area.  However, a t the present time no common  denominator has been presented  f o r making t h i s c o n v e r s i o n .  The a c t u a r i a l standard assumes that r e s u l t s o f f i r e c o n t r o l e f f o r t a r e i n d i c a t i v e o f c o n d i t i o n s d i c t a t i n g the need for fire-control.  T h i s standard attempts an o b j e c t i v e a s s e s s -  ment o f the f i r e - c o n t r o l problem and o f the e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f f i r e - c o n t r o l e f f o r t on a g i v e n area.  Some aspects o f the method  r e q u i r e the use o f p e r s o n a l judgement, but i n a l l cases  this  judgement i s based on c a l c u l a t i o n s u s i n g the data p e r t a i n i n g to a d e f i n i t e area and a s p e c i f i c f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n . The a p p l i c a t i o n o f e i t h e r o f the primary presented  standards  r e q u i r e s an a c c u r a t e assessment o f the t o t a l v a l u e o f  a f o r e s t e d area, together with an i n t e l l i g e n t e s t i m a t i o n o f damage caused  by f o r e s t f i r e s .  The v a l u a t i o n o f a f o r e s t  p r o p e r t y must r e a l i s t i c a l l y assess not only the v a l u e o f the standing and f e l l e d  timber, but a l s o the c o n t i n g e n t v a l u e s .  In  most cases the f i n a n c i a l i n v e s t o r p r o t e c t s the f o r e s t only as a stand o f timber, from which r e t u r n s on investment derived.  can be  Therefore, the added p r o t e c t i o n to i n s u r e a g a i n s t  l o s s o f v a l u e s that cannot be d i r e c t l y measured, o f t e n c a l l s f o r complementary a c t i o n by p u b l i c or government f i r e - c o n t r o l organizations.  I n v e s t o r s have r e c e n t l y made good  progress  toward a c c u r a t e l y e v a l u a t i n g f o r e s t v a l u e s i n terms o f p o t e n t i a l  93 revenue.  However, l i t t l e  a t t e n t i o n has been g i v e n the more  unmeasurable f o r e s t - p r o p e r t y v a l u e s , such as watershed, r e c r e a t i o n , and w i l d l i f e , and t h e i r  s o c i a l and economical  the immediate area and the country as a whole. values are of i n t e r e s t  impact on  Since  these  to everyone, every e f f o r t should he made  by the government to make a good c a l c u l a t e d estimate o f t h e i r worth.  T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n would p r o v i d e a more sound b a s i s f o r  e v a l u a t i n g f i r e - c o n t r o l needs on any a r e a . Once the more unmeasurable f o r e s t  v a l u e s have been  evaluated as a c c u r a t e l y as i s humanly p o s s i b l e , a b a s i s i s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r a c c u r a t e l y a s s e s s i n g the damage caused by fires.  94-  CONCLUSION Methods f o r determining j u s t i f i a b l e expenditure f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l were presented and compared. e x i s t i n g methods f o r r e p o r t i n g f i r e s ,  I n the l i g h t  the a c t u a r i a l  of  approach  p r o v i d e s the most thorough a n a l y s i s o f the f i r e - c o n t r o l problem. T h e r e f o r e , there i s reason to b e l i e v e that t h i s standard would produce approach  the most r e a l i s t i c r e s u l t s . should be expected  even more a c c u r a t e r e s u l t s .  In theory, the economic  to produce  s i m i l a r and  perhaps  However, r e s u l t s cannot  be  obtained by t h i s method u n t i l the f i r e - c o n t r o l o r g a n i z a t i o n s t u d i e d has reached or exceeded the l i m i t o f optimum  fire-  c o n t r o l expenditure. The allowable-annual-burned-area,  determined  by  the  method proposed by B e a l l , has v a l u e e i t h e r as a check on a r e a burned determined economic standard.  by other methods or as a complement to the In some i n s t a n c e s , where r e c o r d s are not  a v a i l a b l e f o r determining other standards, the standard could serve as a temporary Each of the many secondary  area-burned  s u b s t i t u t e primary  standard.  standards performs  a  s p e c i f i c f u n c t i o n i n o r g a n i z a t i o n and p l a n n i n g f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l . Many o f these standards have been used i n p l a c e o f the primary standards presented i n t h i s study.  T h i s misuse o f these  standards  can be a t t r i b u t e d e i t h e r to the l a c k o f knowledge o f the p o s s i bilities  the primary f i r e - c o n t r o l standards p r o v i d e , or to the f a c t  that r e c o r d s have not been a v a i l a b l e f o r the a p p l i c a t i o n o f primary  95  objectives.  The use o f a secondary  standard as an o v e r a l l  f i r e - c o n t r o l guide can only be c o n s i d e r e d as a makeshift s t i t u t i o n f o r more a p p l i c a b l e primary Considerable d i f f i c u l t y the i n f o r m a t i o n necessary records.  for this  sub-  standards.  was encountered  i n extracting  study from e x i s t i n g  fire  I t cannot be too s t r o n g l y emphasized that o b j e c t i v e s  be s e t f o r r e c o r d i n g f o r e s t - f i r e i n f o r m a t i o n .  The v a r i e d uses  o f the f i r e - c o n t r o l r e c o r d s should be made known to those who complete them. that the f i r e - r e p o r t  Furthermore, i t should be made  certain  form p r o v i d e s f o r a l l i n f o r m a t i o n f o r  which a need i s a n t i c i p a t e d . account  people  I t i s essential  that proper  be kept not only o f f i r e - c o n t r o l procedures,  but a l s o  o f the expenditures made f o r f i r e - c o n t r o l f o r v a r i o u s areas. Above a l l , f i r e - c o n t r o l i n f o r m a t i o n must be recorded a c c u r a t e l y and completely.  both  APPENDIX  96 APPENDIX A B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e Damage A p p r a i s a l Schedule, Chapter  7,  Section 7,  1951  Paragraph 9» of the B r i t i s h  Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e P r o t e c t i o n Manual c o n t a i n s the f o l l o w ing  i n f o r m a t i o n p e r t i n e n t to f o r e s t f i r e damage a p p r a i s a l i n  B r i t i s h Columbia ( a b b r e v i a t e d ) . Appraisal  Schedule - Merchantable timber, where a c c e s s i b l e , w i l l  be  valued at the p r e v a i l i n g stumpage r a t e . - Unmerchantable timber  and  merchantable  timber  not a c c e s s i b l e i n time are considered as noncommercial cover. - Immature timber  i s valued using a present worth  t a b l e based on a two  per cent d i s c o u n t  rate.  Table f o r South Coast Type  10  Age;  20  kO  30  60  80  100  Douglas f i r , Cedar, Hemlock  51.Q0 6 2 . 5 0 7 6 . 0 0 9 2 . 5 0 1 3 8 . 0 0 20h. 50 30*+.00  Cedar, Heml o c k , Balsam  3 3 . 0 0 *+0.50 *+9.00 6 0 . 0 0  120  89.00 132.00 196.50 291.50  A minimum v a l u e o f 20 d o l l a r s per acre i s a p p l i e d to any  r e p r o d u c t i o n under 10 y e a r s . Not  s a t i s f a c t o r i l y r e s t o c k e d areas are valued at  per cent of the value found - Two (a)  50  i n the immature t a b l e .  types of non-commercial cover are  recognized?  Deciduous - Found on p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t  sites  97 p r e v i o u s l y may have c a r r i e d a good stand but owing to f i r e , l o g g i n g , i n s e c t s , or other cause has now only poor p o p l a r , poor a l d e r or other deciduous cover i s o f t e n found  growth not o f a commercial type.  This  on o l d burns or l o g g i n g s , and i s dense  enough to c o n s t i t u t e a cover which w i l l occupy the ground t o the e x c l u s i o n o f s a t i s f a c t o r y commercial r e p r o d u c t i o n . (b)  C o n i f e r o u s - This i s non-commercial cover,  chiefly  o f c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s , on a p r o d u c t i v e s i t e which i s not a l o g g i n g chance due to overcrowding,  s t a g n a t i o n , over m a t u r i t y , o r  some s e r i o u s d e f e c t , or i f young, w i l l not become a l o g g i n g chance f o r the same reasons. - Non-commercial cover i s valued a t t w e n t y - f i v e cents per a c r e . - Grazing or pasture l a n d ( i n c a p a b l e o f producing commercial timber)  i s valued at f i v e cents per  acre. - Non-productive  s i t e s are areas having a permanent  cover o f scrub t r e e s or brush o f v a r y i n g d e n s i t y . These are commonly a l p i n e s i t e s , but may he found on lower l e v e l s o f c o a s t a l i s l a n d s .  They i n c l u d e  areas which a r e o f v a l u e f o r r e c r e a t i o n and w i l d life.  These s i t e s a r e valued a t t w e n t y - f i v e cents  per a c r e . - Watershed s i t e s a r e valued at t w e n t y - f i v e  cents  per a c r e . - P r o d u c t i v e s i t e s not producing,  also called  p r o d u c t i v e s i t e s , are not v a l u e d .  barren  98 - F i r e - k i l l e d timber w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d when there i s a d e f i n i t e p o s s i b i l i t y taken out and  marketed.  s a l v a b l e only of i t being  U s u a l l y timber  on or  adjacent  to an a c t i v e l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n which has been f i r e damaged w i l l be u t i l i z e d , but where the f i r e  has  occurred i n areas of poor a c c e s s i b i l i t y ,  question  of  salvability  the  i s given c a r e f u l c o n s i d e r a t i o n .  - Cut f o r e s t products  are valued at p r e v a i l i n g  r a t e s p l u s c o s t of e x t r a c t i o n .  stumpage  99 BIBLIOGRAPHY  A l l e n , G.S., 194$. The a p p l i c a t i o n of f i r e - p r o t e c t i o n p r i n c i p l e s to forest management l i c e n c e s . B r i t i s h Columbia Lumberman 3 2 ( 1 ) : 5 3 • Avery, B.F., 1 9 3 2 . protection.  A basis f o r measuring the degree of forest Forestry Chronicle 8 ( 2 ) : 9 6 - 1 0 5 .  Barrows, J.S., 1 9 5 1 . Forest f i r e s i n the northern rocky mountains. Northern Rocky Mountains Forest and Range Experiment Station, Station Paper No. 2 8 , 24-9 pp.. B e a l l , H.W., 194-9. An outline of f o r e s t - f i r e protection standards. Forestry Chronicle 2 5 ( 2 ) : 8 2 - 1 0 6 . , 194-9A. Some modern aspects of f o r e s t - f i r e control i n Canada. B r i t i s h Columbia Lumberman 3 3 ( 9 ) : 5 9 . , 1 9 5 0 . F o r e s t - f i r e protection standards. Canadian Pulp and Paper Association 1950 Annual Meeting Release No. 14-, 2 pp. . Bodman, P.B., 1 9 5 2 . A proposed basis f o r planning adequate f i r e - c o n t r o l f o r the Spallumcheen Working C i r c l e . 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S w i f t Company, 189 pp.. F r a s e r , F.A., 19**-6. Forest f i r e prevention. Lumberman. 3 0 ( 2 ) : 5**~ 56.  British  Columbia  G i l b e r t , P.G., 1956. F o r e s t f i r e - c o n t r o l standards i n c o a s t a l B r i t i s h Columbia. F a c u l t y o f F o r e s t r y , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. Unpublished essay, 2 5 pp.. Gisborne, H.T., 1936. The p r i n c i p l e s o f measuring f o r e s t f i r e danger. J o u r n a l o f F o r e s t r y 3 * K 8 ) : 7 8 6 - 7 9 3 . , 19 0. Comparison o f i n t e n s i v e versus l i m i t e d f o r e s t f i r e - c o n t r o l a c t i o n . Northern Rocky Mountain F o r e s t and Range Experiment S t a t i o n , Research Note No. 1 0 , 5 pp.. k  101 Gisborne, H.T., 194-2. Review o f problems and accomplisbments i n f i r e - c o n t r o l and f i r e r e s e a r c h . F i r e C o n t r o l Notes  6 ( 2 ) : 4-7-63.  , 194-9. Minimum r a t e f i r e insurance. Northern Rocky Mountains F o r e s t and Range Experiment S t a t i o n Research Note No. 7 2 , 4- pp.. Gormeley, M.W., 1954-. F o r e s t f i r e a n a l y s i s o f the C e l g a r F o r e s t Management L i c e n c e f o r the C e l g a r Development Company L i m i t e d . C o n f i d e n t i a l Report, 1 0 5 pp., mimeo.. Gowen, G.M., 1937. Report o f the Washington f i r e planning conference, November, 1 9 3 6 . F i r e C o n t r o l Notes 1 ( 3 ) :  134-167.  Granger, CM., 1 9 3 7 . F i r e p l a n n i n g : l e t t e r of acting chief of the f o r e s t s e r v i c e . F i r e C o n t r o l Notes 1 ( 3 ) : 1 1 0 - 1 3 3 . Haines, R., 194-1. P r e v e n t i o n d o l l a r s versus West Coast Lumberman 6 8 ( 2 ) : 6 6 - 6 8 .  suppression  dollars.  Hand, R.L., 1 9 5 3 . A c t u a r i a l f i r e planning i n the n o r t h e r n r e g i o n . F i r e C o n t r o l Notes l 4 - ( 3 ) : l - 8 . Hanson, P.D., I.C. Funke, and E.L. Turner, 194-0. A study o f the volume and l o c a t i o n o f the f i r e l o a d and the d e t e r m i n i a t i o n o f an e f f e c t i v e p r e s u p p r e s s i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n to handle i t . F i r e C o n t r o l Notes 4-C4-): 161-172. Hawley, R.C. and P.W. S t i c k e l , 194-8. F o r e s t p r o t e c t i o n . Wiley and Sons, Inc., 3 5 5 pp.. Headley, R., 1 9 2 8 . F i r e c o n t r o l as an e x e c u t i v e 30 pp., t y p e w r i t t e n .  John  problem.  Herbert, P.A., 1924-. The p r i n c i p l e s o f f o r e s t insurance. Journal of Forestry 2 2 ( 5 ) : 5 1 3 - 5 1 7 . Hess, Q.F., 194-7. F i r e c o n t r o l standards. Sylva (Ontario, Department o f Lands and F o r e s t s ) 3 ( 4 - ) : 3 - 1 3 » , 194-7A. F o r e s t f i r e damage. S y l v a ( O n t a r i o , Department o f Lands and F o r e s t s ) 3 ( D ) * 3 - 9 . Hook, R., 1 9 5 6 .  F o r e s t communications system.  32(2)1189-194-.  Forestry Chronicle  Hornby, L.G., 1 9 3 6 . 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United 1 S t a t e s Government Senate Document No. 1 2 , V o l . 2 : 1 3 9 5 - l + l 8 . Kun,  S.F., 1 9 5 7 . F o r e s t f i r e - c o n t r o l plans f o r the n a t i o n a l parks. N a t i o n a l Parks A d m i n i s t r a t i o n T r a i n i n g Course L e c t u r e Notes, 20 pp., mimeo.  Lovejoy, P.S., 1 9 1 6 . The c o s t s and values o f f o r e s t p r o t e c t i o n . Forestry Quarterly l 4 - ( l ) : 2 4 ~ 3 8 . L o v e r i d g e , E.W., 194-4-. The f i r e suppression p o l i c y o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s F o r e s t S e r v i c e . J o u r n a l o f F o r e s t r y 4-2(8):54-9-554-. MacDaniels, E.H., 1 9 3 1 . F o r e s t f i r e damage a p p r a i s a l . o f F o r e s t r y 2 9 ( 7 ) : 103*+ -104-1. Macleod, J.C., 1 9 5 6 . F o r e s t f i r e - c o n t r o l p l a n s . C h r o n i c l e 3 2 ( 2 ) * 197-201.  Journal  Forestry  MacQueen, .IX., 194-6. Adequate f i r e - c o n t r o l on southeast Vancouver I s l a n d . Unpublished Manuscript, 21 pp.. Matthews, D.N. and W.G. M o r r i s , 194-0. Forest f i r e - c o n t r o l i n western Snohomish County, Washington. P a c i f i c Northwest F o r e s t and Range Experiment S t a t i o n , 77 pp...  , 194-2. Adequate f o r e s t f i r e - c o n % trol. P a c i f i c Northwest F o r e s t and Range Experiment S t a t i o n , Progress Report, 77 pp.. McNasser, K.W., 194-9. Surveying f o r e s t s e r v i c e communication needs. F i r e C o n t r o l Notes 10(4-): 14--15. Moroney, M.J., 1 9 5 6 . F a c t s from f i g u r e s . Penguin Books (Canada) L i m i t e d , Toronto, T h i r d E d i t i o n , 4-72 pp.. M o r r e l l , F., 1 9 2 9 . F o r e s t p r o t e c t i o n needs i n the Inland empire. J o u r n a l o f F o r e s t r y 2 7 ( 2 ) : 14-3-14-7.  , 1931. tection.  The 2 5 s 2 5 : 5 0 r a t i o i n f i n a n c i n g f i r e J o u r n a l o f F o r e s t r y 29(4-): 5 2 0 - 5 2 3 .  pro-  103 M o r r i s , W.G., 1 9 3 8 . 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Pearson, F.A., and K.R. Bennett, 1 9 4 - 2 . S t a t i s t i c a l methods a p p l i e d to a g r i c u l t u r a l economics. John W i l e y and Sons Inc., New York, 4-4-3 pp.. Pedley,  J.A., 1 9 5 0 . F o r e s t f i r e suppression notes. British Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e Ranger S c h o o l , r e v i s e d 1 9 5 0 , 2 p a r t s , 129 pp., mimeo..  Sands, W.M., 1 9 4 - 2 . Reducing f i r e suppression c o s t s w i t h r a d i o communications. F i r e C o n t r o l Notes 6 ( 2 ) : 8 l - 8 4 - . S c e t t , M.R., 1 9 3 7 . N a t i o n a l f o r e s t f i r e - c o n t r o l c o s t s . C o n t r o l Notes 1 ( 4 - ) : 2 2 2 - 2 2 5 .  Fire  Shepard, H.B., 1 9 3 7 . F o r e s t f i r e insurance i n the p a c i f i c coast s t a t e s . U.S.D.A., F o r e s t S e r v i c e T e c h n i c a l B u l l e t i n No.551. , 1 9 3 9 . F o r e s t f i r e insurance i n the n o r t h e a s t e r n s t a t e s . 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