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Manufacturing land productivity and land-use forecasting : as experienced by the petroleum refining industry… Fletcher, Roy Howard 1962

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MANUFACTURING LAND PRODUCTIVITY AND LAND-USE FORECASTING: AS EXPERIENCED BY THE PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY OF B.C. rS LOWER MAINLAND by ROY HOWARD FLETCHER B.A.Sc, University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1951 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Science i n the Department of Community and Regional Planning We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1962 In presenting t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the requirements f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r reference and study. I f u r t h e r agree that permission f o r extensive copying of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s understood t h a t copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be allowed without my w r i t t e n permission. Department of Community and Regional Planning, Faculty of Graduate Studies The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver 8, Canada. Date A p r i l 9 , 1962  ABSTRACT Improved techniques for forecasting land needs f o r urban development are required with continuing population and economic growth for the provision of adequate services at reasonable cost. Current l o c a l forecasting techniques exclude the d i r e c t measurement of land used i n i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s and i t s c o r r e l a t i o n with i n d u s t r i a l production. With continuing technological improvements i n i n d u s t r i a l processes i t i s l i k e l y that the r e l a t i o n between land and output w i l l vary and p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the manufacturing i n d u s t r i e s . A review of the Petroleum Refining Industry's experience by a d i r e c t mailed questionnaire to a l l Lower Mainland of B. C. r e f i n e r s indicated a declining importance of land i n r e l a t i o n to output over the l a s t two decades. Trends i n r e f i n e r y output, employment, and land i n active use, show an increasing productivity of both land and labor. The increase i n productivity of manufacturing land exceeded that of labor over the past twenty years i n t h i s industry group. A conceptual comparison was made between two types of forecast where, i n one, the factor of increasing output per unit of land was excluded. The comparison was inexact since somewhat d i f f e r e n t industries were compared. However, i t appeared that over a twenty-year period the exclusion of the productivity of land factor i n the example could lead to s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s . The difference between the i i techniques was an indicated requirement of 1200 acres versus 600 acres i n t o t a l land needed up to 1980 by the industry group. Before the factor of land productivity i n manufacturing and other industries can be adequately considered changes are required i n the methods of c o l l e c t i n g s t a t i s t i c s . These changes would enable a c o r r e l a t i o n between output, employment, population, and land within the urban area. i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i i LIST OF TABLES v i LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS v i i INTRODUCTION 1 Chapter I. THE CHANGING NEED FOR LAND AND LABOUR 3 The Changes: Population Growth; I n d u s t r i a l i z a -t i o n ; Urbanization Future Population The Need f o r Land and Labour I I . FORECASTING URBAN LAND 21 Urban Growth Determinants The Economic Study-I l l . INCREASING LAND PRODUCTIVITY IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY 31 The Approach F i e l d Survey Summary Conclusion IV. DIRECT AND INDIRECT METHODS OF FORECASTING URBAN LAND USE k? Introduction Forecast by Apportionment V. DIRECT URBM LAND FORECAST 58 Summary Conclusion i v Page BIBLIOGRAPHY 65 APPENDIX I. QUESNAY1S ZIG-ZAG CHART AS INTERPRETED BY H. WOOG 68 APPENDIX I I . LEONTEIF INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS 7^ APPENDIX I I I . COPY OF SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE 81+ APPENDIX IV. AN ESTIMATE OF 1980 THROUGHPUT FROM THE LOWER MAINLAND REFINERIES (B. C ) , . . . 85 Introduction B. C. Consumption of Major Forms of Energy, 19H1-1961-1980 The Nature of Petroleum Refining B. C. Estimated Consumption and Refinery Throughput of Diese l Fuel and Motor Gasoline Competitive Position of Lower Mainland Refineries 1980 Throughput i n Lower Mainland Refineries v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1-1. Rate of Population Increase i n Europe during the, Interwar Period 7 1-2. Rate of Population Increase i n Canada and the U. S. by Decades, 1870-1950 7 1-3. Level of National Productivity Showing the Period When a Specified Level i s Reached 9 1-k. Rates of Increase i n Productivity, Canada and the United States 10 1- 5. L i f e Expectancies at B i r t h , England and Wales . . . . 17 2- 1. Selected S t a t i s t i c s on Manufactures 29 2-2. Gross Domestic Product per Man Hour i n 19^9 Dollars . 29 2- 3. Labour Force i n Canada 30 3- 1. Petroleum Refineries i n B r i t i s h Columbia, i960 . . . 36 3-2. 'Questionnaire Summary Data 39 3-3» Throughput Ratios of Summary Data for Lower Mainland O i l Refinery Group ^0 6-1. Consumption of Liquid Petroleum Fuels as Per Cent of Total for B. C. and Yukon, 1955-1960 9^ 6-2. The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services, Canada, 19I+9 76 6-3. Input i n t o Each Industry per Dollar of Output, Canada, 19^9 78 6-k. Total Output of Each Industry and Total Primary Input Resulting from the Production of a Doll a r ' s Worth of F i n a l Output of an Industry, Canada, 19^9 82 v i LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure Page 1. Population of Major World Areas, 1750-19^0 . . . . k 2. Food and Population l*f 3. Change i n the Consumption of Major Forms of Energy 87 k. Production of Saleable Products, B. C. and Yukon Refineries 90 5 . Modern Petroleum Refinery, photograph k2 6. Interpretation of Quesnay's Tableau Economique . . 71 v i i INTRODUCTION "We must make plans, who looks not before, - finds himself behind." -Publius Syr us, ^ B. C. During the l a s t 100 years, Canada has experienced a population increase of 15 m i l l i o n persons. P r i o r to 1 8 7 1 , less than 20 per cent of the population l i v e d i n urban areas while today more than 65 per cent l i v e i n c i t i e s or towns. The existing areas have had to provide add i t i o n a l homes, shops, schools, s t r e e t s , water supplies, l i g h t i n g , and recently such innovations as freeways, for 11 m i l l i o n persons. Provision of these services has required large expenditures by both government and private bodies. The extent of t h e i r spending programs and the provision of services have been based on anticipated development and s o c i a l need to s u i t the physical l i f e of the investments. Thus i f 20 years are required to amortize the physical plant or equipment that equipment must be usable and of adequate capacity f o r 20 years. An inaccurate estimate of future development w i l l tend to r e s u l t i n c o s t l i e r services by either shortening t h e i r l i f e , through early replacement, or increasing annual costs through excess capacity. 1 2 Increasing importance has been attached to urban land forecast methods as greater public and private investments are required. Also greater attention i s given to the i n t e n s i t y of development by i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y within each zoning d i s t r i c t . This d i s s e r t a t i o n examines b r i e f l y the present forecasting methods and introduces a factor to be considered further i n forecasting manufacturing land requirements. The f i r s t Part of the t h e s i s , chapters I and I I , describes c e r t a i n world phenomena affecting land use forecasting and ways of estimating t h e i r extent at l o c a l urban places. Also, t h i s section introduces the hypothesis that an increasing 'productivity* i n manufacturing land can be anticipated. The second Part, chapters I I I and IV, examines the hypothesis and discusses some of i t s significance to land use forecasting methods. The l a s t chapter summarises the preceding discussion. Examination of the hypothesis has been l i m i t e d to one industry, petroleum r e f i n i n g , and t h i s i s r e s t r i c t e d to the lower mainland of B r i t i s h Columbia since s p e c i f i c information f o r the industry as a whole i s not r e a d i l y available. Several reference readings, while not e n t i r e l y appropriate, have been included i n the bibliography as general references respecting petroleum re f i n e r y a c t i v i t y and l o c a t i o n . CHAPTER I THE CHANGING NEED FOR LAND AND LABOUR The Changes: Population Growth; I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n ; Urbanization Population growth Increasing world population has been a phenomenon for at l e a s t two hundred years. In 1750 the estimated number of persons i n a l l countries was between 0.5 and 0.7 b i l l i o n and t h i s was to exceed two b i l l i o n before 1950. The rate of world increase has been r e l a t i v e l y uniform over t h i s period but large variations have occurred i n some continents as w e l l as d i f f e r e n t rates between countries. The graph of F i g . 1 shows the range of population increases between selected continents. World population i s dependent upon bi r t h s and deaths which, within b i o l o g i c a l l i m i t s , can be controlled to some degree. B i r t h control i s predominantly a c u l t u r a l phenomenon which can be applied at various rates and i n various manners. H i s t o r i c a l l y t h i s has been achieved by c h i l d abandonment while today means are i n s t i t u t e d to prevent conception.^ Deaths, to ^Roland Rene, Land Economics (New York: Harper and Bros., 1958), p. 91: "The sex appetite i s a b i o l o g i c a l f a c t , but the reproductive tendency, as shown by the b i r t h rate, i s a c u l t u r a l 3 c o 1750 1800 1850 1900 J950 : 2000 Year estimated hypothetical Fig . | P O P U L A T I O N O F M A J O R WORLD A R E A S 1 7 5 0 - 1940 8 F M I - L 0 © PLOT - - -(From T. w. Schultz 0 Economio organization of Aorloul ture , 1 9 5 3 , p.37) 5 a substantial degree, can be reduced by advances i n medical science, adoption of hygiene practices, and increasing food supplies above malnutrition l e v e l s . Thus the reduction of deaths i s also related to s o c i a l and economic as w e l l as c u l t u r a l t r a i t s . These factors of world population apply also to i n d i v i d u a l nations and continents but, i n addition, they are also affected by migrations. Migration has a d i r e c t affect on continental populations by adding to or deleting from the base population. They also affect the world population i n d i r e c t l y by a d i f f e r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n of human resources of people, c a p i t a l , and labor. Such was the case i n North America during the migration to the 'New World 1 i n the l a s t century. The greatly increased popula-t i o n enabled more a g r i c u l t u r a l production which not only sustained the increased population i n North America but also provided considerable exports of food to Europe and elsewhere. Hence with migration a r i s i n g world population was possible p after food supplies increased. phenomenon and the development of b i r t h control methods, s e l f -r e s t r a i n t , fear or poverty, desire f or a high standard of l i v i n g , and related factors have enabled man to slow up the rate of increase." 2 T. W. Schultz, The Economic Organization of Agriculture (New York: McGraw H i l l , 1953) , P» 3 6 : " . . . one need only to ascertain the rate of growth of the population to determine the rate at which the demand f o r food i s increasing. The cau s a l i t y , however, runs the other way, which means the increase i n the supply of food comes f i r s t and the growth of population occurs as a r e s u l t . " 6 The combined e f f e c t of migrations, b i r t h c o n t r o l , and 'death c o n t r o l 1 i s noted for d i f f e r e n t continents i n previous F i g . 1 while changes i n Europe, over a shorter period, are shown i n Table 1-1. These i l l u s t r a t i o n s show that the d i s p a r i t y of population increase does not stop at the continent but continues to i n d i v i d u a l portions within continents. In Table 1-2 t h i s d i s p a r i t y over time within one country i s shown where, i n Canada, the rate of increase has varied between 11 and 33 per cent per decade since 1871. In forecasting future population, increasing d i f f i c u l t y arises i n obtaining a representative projection as the geo-graphic area decreases i n s i z e . A forecast of future t o t a l world population could be made with more certainty than one for a l o c a l urban area. P r i n c i p a l l y the changing l o c a l increase r e s u l t s from the greater ease of movements between smaller areas of people, goods, labor, and c a p i t a l . I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n The second phenomenon during t h i s period.of world population increase has been a continuing increase i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of labor processes. By using machines for production assistance, a greater output per worker has been possible. Also completely new f i e l d s of consumer products, machines, machine parts, and mechanical labor-saving devices, have been introduced. Thus new products such as the automobile, the t e l e v i s i o n set, the automatic toaster, have become available 7 TABLE 1-1 HATE OF POPULATION INCREASE IN EUROPE DURING THE INTERWAR PERIOD Per cent Approximate In-Increase crease per Decade 1920-1939 (per cent) U. K. and Ireland 8 k.2 West Central Europe 12.1 Northern Europe 12.2 6.k Southern Europe 18.2 Eastern Europe 30.5 16.1 Euopre without U. S. S. R. 16.3 8.6 U. S. S. R. 27.0 1*K2 Source: Schultz, O P . c i t . , P . kO. TABLE 1-2 RATE OF POPULATION INCREASE IN CANADA AND THE U. S. BY DECADES, 1870 TO 1950 Decade Per cent Increase per Decade i n Population Canada United States 1870 - 1880 16.2 26.0 1880 - 1890 11.5 25.5 1890 - 1900 12.5 20.7 1900 - 1910 3 3 . 3 21.0 1910 - 1920 22.2 l l f . 9 1920 - 1930 18.2 16.1 1930 - 19^0 10.5 19H0 - 1950 21.7 Ik.k Source: Schultz, op. c i t . , p. 39, and Canada Year Book  I960 (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , 19ol). Note: The decade for Canada actually i s one year l a t e r than that i n the U. S. where the Census occurs one year l a t e r . 8 as w e l l as increased a v a i l a b i l i t y of staple products such as t e x t i l e s and food s t u f f s . I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of processes started i n Europe and from there i t has been spreading to other parts of the world. The extent of t h i s i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n has been measured as the amount of production per man hour. Table 1-3 l i s t s a r e l a t i v e rate of productivity f o r d i f f e r e n t countries and shows an approximate date when they reached d e f i n i t e l e v e l s of productivity. The rate at which countries increase t h e i r productivity i s variable and d i f f e r s between countries. In 1800 both France and Germany had productivity rates less than .03 units. However Germany reached a tenfold increase by 1913 while France did not reach that point u n t i l 192*+. The same productivity achievement had been achieved i n B r i t a i n by I89O or two decades before that of France and Germany., Productivity increases also vary over time within a country and Table 1-k shows t h i s v a r i a t i o n i n Canada and the U. S. A., f o r the period 1910 to 1955. In Canada, a two per cent increase i n productivity has occurred annually on the average between 1926 and 1955, for both business and a g r i c u l t u r a l sectors. However i n that time the rate has varied from a high of eleven per cent to a low of one-half per cent per year i n the a g r i c u l t u r a l sector and between 1.7 and 3-2 per cent i n the business sector. TABLE 1-3 LEVEL OF NATIONAL PRODUCTIVITY SHOWING THE PERIOD WHEN A SPECIFIED LEVEL IS REACHED (Measured i n in t e r n a t i o n a l units of r e a l national product per man-hour) At 0 . 0 3 0 . 1 0 - 0 . 1 5 About 0 . 3 0 Range Country- Per-iod Level Country Per-i o d 1 Level Country Per-iod Level France 1800 . 0 3 B r i t a i n 1800 O.llf B r i t a i n 1890 0 . 3 1 Germany 1800 France 1850 0 . 1 0 United States 1890 0 . 3 ^ India i 8 6 0 - Sweden « i 8 6 0 0 . 1 0 Denmark 1913 0 . 3 0 Japan 1890 - Greece 1880 0 . 1 3 Germany 1913 0 . 3 1 China 1930 - E i r e 1880 0 . 1 1 Netherlands 1913 0 . 2 9 Belgium I89O 0 . 1 1 Norway 1920 0 . 3 3 I t a l y 1890 0 . 1 0 Spain 1920 0 . 3 1 Norway 1890 0.1*f Sweden 1920 0 . 3 0 Switzerland 1890 0 . 1 5 France 1921+ 0 . 3 0 U. S. S. R. 1900 0 . 1 5 Switzerland" 1925 0 . 3 1 Estonia 1913 0 . 1 1 E i r e 1926 0 . 3 0 Hungary 1913 O.llf Belgium 1930 0 . 3 3 Portugal 1913 0 . 1 1 Argentina 1935 0 . 3 5 Japan 1922 0 . 1 0 Finland 1937 0 . 3 2 Turkey 1927 0 . 1 0 Ecuador 19^0 0 . 1 1 B r a z i l 1936 0 . 1 1 Sources Review of Economic Progress, v o l . 1, no. k, A p r i l , 19^9, c i t e d from: Schultz, op. c i t . j footnote p. l 6 l . " 10 TABLE 1-k RATES OF INCREASE IN PRODUCTIVITY3 CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES (Per cent per annum) Period A g r i c u l t u r a l Sector Business Sector Canada u. s . Canada U. S. 1910-55 - 1.95 - -1926-1+7 1926-55 0.60 2.2*+ 2.1k 2.92 1.71 1.91 . 1.55 3 . 0 0 19k?-k9 19^7-53 2.75 8.82 7 A 0 1.78 " 2.35 3 .65 3 .32 19^9-53 19^9-55 11.23 7.54 3 .23 £+.05 2 . 6 V 2.68 3.17 2.96 1951-53 1951-55 3.78 2.85 3 .92 k.Qk 3.2*+ 3 .01 2.62 2.56 1953-55 0.51 5.78 2.76 2.50 Source: Royal Commission of Canada's Economic Prospects, F i n a l Report (Ottawa, November, 1957) , p. 323, Table 1 6 . 1 . Future economic forecasts must consider the factor of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and changing productivity of labor i n agriculture and business. As indicated,>this productivity increase i s not constant but has wide variations over short periods. I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of agriculture and related product d i s t r i b u t i o n methods have reduced the number of farm workers required i n proportion to t o t a l population. This reduction has also been increased by improved farm techniques. 11 Urbanization The change to an i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of industry has been accompanied or preceded by c u l t u r a l changes and a with-drawal from agrarian l i v i n g . With increased productivity i n agriculture more people were released from farm work. They tended to relocate i n c i t i e s with the greater opportunities f o r employment. Coincidently, the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d processes located t h e i r f a c t o r i e s i n these urban areas. As a r e s u l t the urban places grew r a p i d l y with the i n f l u x of surplus farm workers and with the increased population r e s u l t i n g from increased food supplies. By 1851 f i f t y per cent of the population i n England and Wales l i v e d i n urban areas and t h i s increased to 80 per cent by 1 9 3 1 . ^ In the Canada of 1 8 7 1 , l e s s than 20 per cent of the inhabitants l i v e d i n towns while today t h i s proportion exceeds 65 per cent. Thus the Canadian urban areas have provided f a c i l i t i e s f o r 11 m i l l i o n persons since 1871 with today's population of more than 18 million;. A greater change has occurred i n the U. S. A. where by 1950 more than 6k per cent of i t s population l i v e d i n urban places. A preceding section described the large immigrations to North America and thus the increased urban population i n th i s continent resulted from a combination of factors. These factors include the net natural increase i n population; the net •^Canada, Census Monographs 1931* No. 6 T Rural and Urban  Composition of the Canadian Population (Ottawa: King's P r i n t e r , 12 migrations from the rural areas; and the net immigrations to urban places from other countries. . Future estimates of urban populations w i l l be dependent i n part on the distribution of people .between rural and urban areas. Future Population Food supplies One of the major determinants of world population-is food supplies. Arable land on the surface of the earth i s limited at 9*7 per cent and. perhaps another 17*3 per cent of U. the total land surface i s suitable for pasture. Increased food production i s l i k e l y to come from either, u t i l i z a t i o n of potentially arable land or from increasing yields per acre or from a combination of the two. . United States 1 recent experience has shown that increased food production has resulted from both increased yields and increased acreages in production. In 1935-39 about 29h million acres were used for domestic production of food and by 1950-5 1* this area increased to 319 million acres. In the same period the U. S. population changed from 129 million to 157 million. By assuming a constant food intake per capita, the amount of land in domestic production per capita decreased from 2.35 to' k Yearbook of Food and Agricultural Statistics - Produc- tion. 1953« Rome, F. A. 0 . of the United Nations, 1 0 ^ , vol. 7. Part 1, as cited from lecture notes of Professor I. M. Robinson, Spring 1961, University of British Columbia. 13 2.03 acres per person over the period.' The United States' experience i n increasing food supplies i s t y p i c a l of many countries and the recent experience f o r several continents i s shown i n F i g . 2. World production of food increased 55 per cent since the pre-war period while population increased le s s than *+5 per cent. This r e l a t i v e surplus production has not been a uniform feature f o r each country. Western Europe has had the greatest per capita gain while A f r i c a produced the le a s t of those continents shown. Oceania appears to have incurred a uniform d e f i c i t between increased population and food while other continents such as Worth America have maintained a uniform per capita gain. I t i s l i k e l y that the uniform apparent food surplus i n North America i s exported to other countries i n world trade. Studies of future a g r i c u l t u r a l output indicate a continuation of past trends and i n Canada the Royal Commission reported as follows: We would anticipate that over the next twenty-five . years a g r i c u l t u r a l output may grow by perhaps 65 per cent to 70 per cent and that the growth w i l l be accom-panied by only a s l i g h t increase i n the acreage of land i n farms and a further substantial decline i n the farm labour force.6 ^Loc. c i t . Royal Commission on Canada' Economic Prospects, F i n a l  Report (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , 1957)> P» 170. •" - - ! - - Y e a r ; -~- ' Food production i > •. l n d i c ies b as e prewar as 10 0 Population . - ' ' . ! Fig. 2 ? 77f OlQ~D - AN D P 0> UL A T I O N 19 6 I (From Food and Agricultural Organization, United Nations. 1964) 15 It would appear, then, that greater production of foods i s li k e l y to continue and to be achieved by both increased yields per acre and by increased acres in farm use. In Canada, the increased demand for farm lands appears slight for the next twenty years while the expected increased agricultural produc-tion could sustain a population some 60 per cent greater. The entire increased population i s li k e l y to reside in urban areas as the forecast of the Royal Commission expected a decline i n the required farm labor force. As suggested in previous sections, population growth i s essentially a cultural phenomenon and one in which a l l benefits of agriculture need not go to support a greater number of persons. Instead these rewards can be utilized for increasing personal possessions or increased physical wealth. Essentially an increase in per capita output of agriculture means that less time i s required for food production. Consequently more time can be used for the creation of other physical goods or alternately the additional time can be used for non-productive leisure pursuits. Economic growth Experience i n many Western countries has shown that the agricultural benefits have been used not only for increased population but also for increasing personal wealth. This relationship was realized and described in the mid-eighteenth century by the Physiocratic Economists. 16 This group postulated that a l l wealth came from nature and, for prosperity, state controls should enhance the 'natural order' rather than interfere with i t . In his book, of 1758, Tableau EconomiaueT Francois Quesnay described the dependency of a l l national economy on the 'Surplus' of agriculture. With a zig-zag diagram he portrayed the economy and showed the relation-ship between agriculture and manufacturing and how a l l classes of people were affected by the rewards of agriculture. A description of his diagram i s attached as Appendix I. The effect of economic growth was also realized and studied by Adam Smith. In 1776 he presented his work, An  Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, and postulated that value arises from the labor expended in the process of production. Smith and other "Classical Economists" attributed the increasing wealth to the product of industry based on technological improvements. However Smith's study was made i n Great Britain where considerably less agriculture and considerably more manufacture was conducted than i n France, the area studied by Quesnay. During this period of increasing wealth there was also an alarming increase i n population. So much so, that concern was expressed over the a b i l i t y of agriculture to keep pace with the rate of increase without the standard of livin g f a l l i n g to a subsistence "level. The advances in medical science greatly altered and increased the l i f e expectancy as shown i n Table 1-5. Thus with reduced death rate and constant 17 b i r t h rate the population increased i t s rate of net gain. TABLE 1-5 LIFE EXPECTANCIES AT BIRTH, ENGLAND AND WALES7 Sex Time period, years of expected l i f e 1871-1880 1891-1900 1938-1939 1952 Males kl.k M+.l 6 1 . 8 6 7.I Females Mf .6 1+7.8 6 5 . 8 7 2 A Concern over the i n a b i l i t y of agriculture to keep pace with population growth was heightened i n 1820 by Malthus's economic " P r i n c i p a l s . I n h i s book, Malthus envisaged: . . . the economy as consisting of two major sectors: , one i n d u s t r i a l , one agriculture. Technological progress he regarded as a phenomenon confined to the i n d u s t r i a l sector . . . and unmitigated diminishing returns was the primary c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of the a g r i c u l t u r a l sector.8 The consequence then, of increasing population was a declining standard of l i v i n g as progressively less productive lands were used. However not a l l economists were of the same view and K a r l Marx refused to believe that the human race would continue i t s high reproduction rate u n t i l subsistence was reached. His clearer view of the economy saw that the produce and wealth ^ S i r John Russel, World Population and Food Supplies (London: A l l e n and Unwin Ltd., 1 9 5 6 ) , footnote page 1 9 . o Benjamin Higgins, Economic Development (New York: Norton and Co., 1 9 3 9 ) , p. 1 0 3 . 18 extracted from the colonies was s u f f i c i e n t to compensate for the seemingly decreasing returns of agriculture. His confidence was j u s t i f i e d and the b i r t h rate i n B r i t a i n dropped f a s t e r Q than the increase through lengthened l i f e span. y During the interwar period, 1920-1939? the rate of population increase per decade i n the United Kingdom was l e s s than four and one-half per c e n t . 1 0 Economic growth and population growth are i n t e r - r e l a t e d so that one may be increased at the s a c r i f i c e of the other. Also experience has shown that both phenomenon may increase together. However they are both c u l t u r a l affected phenomena and while the rate of c u l t u r a l change may be slow i t i s d i f f i c u l t to forecast precisely the extent of either one or of both. Nevertheless, i t i s l i k e l y that both w i l l continue to increase i n North America. In viewing the l i k e l y changes W. W. Bostow relates the following s i x determinants of economic growth.1'1' 1. the propensity to develop fundamental sciences; 2. the propensity to apply science to economic ends; 3 . the propensity to accept innovations; H. the propensity to seek material advance; 5. the propensity to consume; 6 . the propensity to have children. R u s s e l l , OP. c i t . . p. 1 9 : "In the l 8 7 0's however, the b i r t h rate began to f a l l , and continued to do so t i l l f i n a l l y i t f e l l f aster than the death rate, and so we attained our present low rate of increase. The main cause . . . was the spread of deliberate family l i m i t a t i o n . " 10, Schultz, OP. c i t . . p. IfO. " v . W. Rostow, The Process of Economic Growth (New York: Norton and Co., 1 9 5 2 ) , p. 1 2 . 19 A change i n any one of the determinants w i l l a ffect the per capita national wealth. I f technological advancement ceases to be conceived, accepted or applied the increases i n productivity w i l l stop. I f the products of industry are not consumed or i f people take the entire rewards i n l e i s u r e , economic growth w i l l cease. I f the population increases as f a s t or f a s t e r than the,gains i n productivity the per capita d i s t r i b u t i o n of wealth must remain s t a t i c or decline. The Need for Land and Labor The previous sections have endeavoured to i l l u s t r a t e two major phenomena of the l a s t two centuries. These are increasing world population, and economic growth p a r t i c u l a r l y i n some countries. They have also attempted to relate the two and to indicate what changes might be expected i n them i n the future. The conclusion i s to expect a continuation of the trend where world population increases and economic growth continues. The extent of these changes w i l l vary considerably between countries and w i l l r e f l e c t t h e i r respective cultures. As a g r i c u l t u r a l productivity increases there w i l l be proportionately fewer persons,needed on the farms. Thus, under present employment conditions the increased population w i l l tend to locate i n urban centers and continue the trend to greater urbanization. In t h i s way greater demands w i l l be placed on urban land and on urban f a c i l i t i e s and greater expenditures w i l l be required by both public and private sources to meet these demands. 20 As extensions to permanent services are required and as replacements of them are being made, greater attention i s being placed on precise estimates of future urban population and economic a c t i v i t y . These estimates are enabling adequate services to be provided at minimum cost. CHAPTER I I FORECASTING URBAN LAND Urban Growth Determinants The trend towards increasing urbanization has been demonstrated i n the preceding chapter. I t i s l i k e l y that the population of Canada w i l l increase i n size s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n the next twenty years as we l l as locate predominantly i n urban areas. The re l a t i o n s h i p between economic growth and population growth was described where both can progress simultaneously or one at the expense of the other. For the next twenty years, i t i s l i k e l y that increases w i l l occur i n both population and economic a c t i v i t y . Growth i n s p e c i f i c urban areas i s more d i f f i c u l t to anticipate than t o t a l growth i n national urbanization. Exper-ience has shown that the big c i t i e s tend to get bigger and that e x i s t i n g urban centers expand rather than new centers originate. However, the growth rate for any pa r t i c u l a r urban area w i l l depend on several unique fa c t o r s . Two p r i n c i p a l a t t r a c t i o n s of a s p e c i f i c area are i t s amenities and i t s employment opportunities. 21 22 With equal employment opportunities people w i l l tend to l i v e i n areas where s o c i a l and physical environment are most suitable to the i r i n d i v i d u a l preference. However, i f job opportunities are scarce or non-existent the i n d i v i d u a l would locate or relocate i n more opportune places. Local features and amenities such as climate, heritage, or view are considerably more s t a t i c than varia t i o n s i n employment opportunities. Therefore by comparing population trends f or a l l urban places, i t i s possible to detect settlement advan-tages i n i n d i v i d u a l areas. The quantitative measure of t h i s advantage would be d i f f i c u l t to ascertain since i t also includes other factors such as employment opportunities. In a r r i v i n g at a population forecast f or the urban area, the amenity factor would tend to be a constant parameter while the employment opportunities would be a variable parameter. Hence the employment forecast has a great import-ance for determining future urban development. Employment i s one part of economic a c t i v i t y and labor i s used i n combina-tio n with other resources of c a p i t a l , material, and land. I t i s d i f f i c u l t to separate any one of the four to study i n i s o l a t i o n and thus a comprehensive economic study of a l l factors w i l l offer the most information depicting future conditions. 23 The Economic Study The use of economic studies f o r physical planning A study of the national economy w i l l include a forecast of the s i x propensities for economic growth of W. W. Rostow as described i n Chapter I. Thus a national economic forecast i s also a forecast of population and c u l t u r a l behavior. In most countries the urban area also i s an i n t e g r a l part of the c u l t u r a l and economic l i f e of the nation. Therefore i t i s necessary to r e l a t e the urban economic forecast to the national forecast. Once t h i s i s done the urban economic study can be used to a s s i s t physical planning of the urban area. By i n d i c a t i n g employment opportunities, the economic study enables an estimate of future l o c a l population. Also, i n d e t ailed economic studies, the d i s t r i b u t i o n of employment to d i f f e r e n t business sectors w i l l enable an estimate of land re-quirements i n zoning d i s t r i c t s . Generally, i n most c i t i e s , manufacturing businesses are r e s t r i c t e d to locating i n i n d u s t r i a l zones while service type businesses are located i n commercial zones. National economic studies Most national economic studies are made i n terms of output, as measured by d o l l a r s and employees. With the exception of a g r i c u l t u r e , land areas are not considered as a variable within current national economic studies. Thus i n r e l a t i n g the 2h urban area to the nation a new co r r e l a t i o n must be made between output, or employment, and requirements of land. A national economic study, such as the Royal Commission study of Canada's economic prospects, i s a very lengthy and detailed study of many components of the t o t a l national economy. These components are summarily i n t e r r e l a t e d where possible and i n t u i t i v e judgement used to forecast the t o t a l economy. Recently new technical methods are being developed to a s s i s t i n deter-mining the extent of i n t e r - r e l a t i o n of the component parts. Description of the in t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s of the economic structure was given by tQuesnay i n h i s Tableau Economiaue of the eighteenth century. This was reaffirmed by Leon Walras i n h i s book Elements d'Economie Po l i t i q u e Pure 1 of I 8 7 6 , and revived by Wassily Leontief i n 1 9 3 6 . Leontief introduced a method of measuring the interdependency which has now been c a l l e d the "input-output analysis." In t h i s method the inputs and outputs of a l l firms, by sections of the economy, are tabulated i n a double entry form. This form, or matrix, i s a l i s t i n g of related business trans-actions. Applying advanced algebra to the form, the degree of interrelatedness can be calculated. This c a l c u l a t i o n i s quite lengthy es p e c i a l l y f o r a large table, and i s nearly p r o h i b i t i v e ^Canada, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Paper no. 7 2 , Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services, 19k9 (Ottawa: Queen1s P r i n t e r , i 9 6 0 ) . 25 without the use of high speed computors. A description of the Leonteif approach i s attached i n Appendix I I as i t was applied to Canada's National Accounts. This analysis method i s generally l i m i t e d to larger economic areas such as the nation where s t a t i s t i c a l data i s r e a d i l y available but i t has been used with some success i n smaller units. An analysis of the B. C. Economy was presented by R. E. Boston i n 1961 showing the current i n t e r - r e l a t i o n of B. C. business sectors. He showed that the effect of a new s t e e l smelter would probably be a three per cent production increase i n petroleum products, transportation and leather products. Forecasts using t h i s method w i l l tend to be more accurate but only because more knowledge i s available about the interrelatedness of d i f f e r e n t businesses. Even with t h i s method, i n t u i t i v e judgement must be used to predict the future demand 2 and future interrelatedness of firms. Urban economic studies Many urban economic studies are made i n d i r e c t l y from e a r l i e r national economic forecasts. The i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y of 2 Canada, D. B. S. Supplement to Paper 72, op. c i t . , p. 17: "The use of constant input-output r a t i o s . . . leaves some questions unanswered . . . . (1) To what extent would change i n the quantity of input be met through inventory change rather than by current production? ( i i ) To what extent would an i n -crease i n output i n an industry require an increase i n plant and equipment i n that or other industries . . . . ( i i i ) To what extent w i l l change i n r e l a t i v e price cause substitution of one input f o r another?" 26 production data at the l o c a l l e v e l plus a greater v a r i a t i o n i n production make di r e c t studies of long term economic prospects d i f f i c u l t . Therefore a preferred approach i s to apportion the national forecast to the l o c a l l e v e l . This i s done by ca r e f u l consideration of trends i n the re l a t i o n s h i p between l o c a l production and national production. A l o c a l forecast i s then produced by combining national forecast with the expected future share to be contributed by the l o c a l area. Since the national forecast i s generally made i n terms of output and labor input, but not land, i t i s necessary to adjust the urban labor forecast to a land requirement forecast. Economic forecasts can be extensive and time-consuming and therefore attempts have been made to f i n d r e l i a b l e short-cut methods. The Economic base concept has been used f o r just such purpose. E s s e n t i a l l y t h i s approach t r i e s to i d e n t i f y only the key or 'base' industries and thus reduce the number of businesses to be studied. Hans Blumenfeld describes the concept as follows: Take, for instance, a copper mining v i l l a g e with 1 ,000 miners. There w i l l be, say, 600 people employed l o c a l l y i n r e t a i l trade and consumer services; i f the family c o e f f i c i e n t i s 2 .5 the population w i l l be ^ OO. I f the company hires another 1 ,000 miners, i t i s safe to pre-d i c t that they w i l l shortly be followed by about 600 more "secondary 1 employed persons and that the popula-t i o n w i l l increase to 8 , 0 0 0 . Inversely i f the company lays off 500 miners, the population w i l l i n due course shrink to 2 , 0 0 0 . 3 -'Hans Blumenfeld, "The Economic Base of the Metropolis," Journal of the A. I. P.. v o l . x x i , no. F a l l 1955, P. 116. 27 In practice i t would be necessary to study only the future mining employment since the other secondary workers are d i r e c t l y affected by changes i n the base industry. The concept was f i r s t u t i l i z e d i n 1936 by Homer Hoyt i n a housing demand study for the U. S. Federal Housing Adminis-t r a t i o n . Since then he and others have refined the technique to improve i t s accuracy. E s s e n t i a l l y , t h i s method s t i l l requires a forecast of national output and i t s i n t e r r e l a t i o n with the l o c a l area. I t does, however, reduce the t o t a l e f f o r t i n the study by requiring only a portion of the t o t a l economy to be i n t e n t l y studied. Like the apportionment method t h i s approach must s t i l l introduce the r e l a t i o n between output and land to enable a forecast of urban land requirements. Limitation of urban economic studies For physical planning purposes the economic studies outlined do not d i r e c t l y determine future requirements of urban land but future employment l e v e l s . When the r e l a t i o n s h i p between employment and land i s constant these methods are ade-quate. However, i f the r e l a t i o n changes, additional study must be undertaken. In some economic a c t i v i t i e s , such as a g r i c u l t u r e , there i s opportunity to use d i f f e r e n t combinations of labor, c a p i t a l , and land f o r a f i x e d amount of production. This appears to be true also i n the manufacturing industries where greater amounts 28 of c a p i t a l and less amounts of labor are being used. The r e s u l t i s an apparent productivity of labor and experience i n Canada has shown a three-fold increase i n manufacturing worker output between 1917 and 1957 as shown i n Table 2 - 1 . In a shorter period, see Table 2 - 2 ; i t appears that t h i s productivity of manufacturing labor exceeds that of other urban located industry. This trend towards increasing manufacturing productivity can be expected to continue and the Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects expects an increasing proportion of the labor force i n service i n d u s t r i e s by 1980 as shown i n Table 2 - 3 . Thus the proportion of workers i n a l l other urban located i n d u s t r i e s , including manufacturing, w i l l probably decline. The increase i n the apparent productivity of labor has been primarily as a r e s u l t of additional use of c a p i t a l i n the form of faster machines and improved techniques. These machines have not necessarily required additional land i n proportion to the i r increased output. Therefore i t might be expected that a ce r t a i n apparent productivity of land e x i s t s i n the manufacturing in d u s t r i e s . This productivity of land might be analogous to that of agriculture where increasing y i e l d s are produced per acre as a r e s u l t of d i f f e r e n t combinations of c a p i t a l and labor. 29 TABLE 2-1 SELECTED STATISTICS OF MANUFACTURES Value added by Manufac-ture Employees Year ^ (millions (thousands) of , •,dollars) 1917 1281 607 2112 22 59 1920 1621 599 2707 23 72 1929 1755 667 263I+ 22 79 1933 919 1+69 1962 2k 39 1939 1531 658 2326 25 62 1 9 ^ J+015 1223 3281+ 28 Ihl 1956 9605 1353 7099 37 257 1957 - 9822 - 1359 7227 38 259 Source: "Significant Statistics of Manufactures for certain years 1917-57," Canada Year Book 1960T op. c i t . T p. 665. TABLE 2-2 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER MM HOUR IN 19 L9 DOLLARS Sector 19 L6 1955 Per cent change Agriculture .58 .99 70 Resource industries 1.67 2.1+5 h7 Primary manufacturing 1.1*6 1.97 35 Secondary manufacturing 1.35 1.77 31 Transportation, storage l . L 3 and communications 1.73 21 Trade, finance, service and construction 1.31 I.1+6 l l Source: D. H. Fullerton and H. A. Hampson, "Canadian Secondary Manufacturing Industry," Royal Commission on Canada's  Economic Prospects (Ottawa: Queen's Printer, 1957), P. l*+9. Average Value added Establish-per ments Employee (thousands) (dollars) Average Value added per Es-tablish-ment (thous-ands of dollars) 30 TABLE 2-3 LABOR FORCE IN CANADA Per cent of Labor Force for Year Shown Industry 1931 19^1 1951 1 9 8 O 1 Retail and wholesale 1 1 . 2 1 1 . 5 1 5 . 0 2 0 . 5 Finance, insurance, and real estate 2.k 2 . 0 2 . 7 3 . 5 Community and Business 6 . 3 6 . 1 8 . 2 1 0 . 0 Recreation 0 . 5 O.k 0 . 5 0 . 5 Personal (except restaurants) 7 . 0 7 . 0 h.k Government (except armed forces) 2 . 8 3 . 0 k.k 6 . 6 Armed forces 0 . 1 7 . 0 1 .3 l.k Total service 3 0 . 2 3 7 . 0 3 6 . 5 1+6.8 Other industries 6 9 . 8 63.O 6 3 . 5 5 3 . 2 Total labor force (thousands of workers) 3 , 9 2 2 ^,511 5 , 2 8 6 1 0 , 0 0 0 Total population (thousands) 1 0 , 3 6 3 11 ,^90 13,981+ 2 6 , 7 0 0 Source: The Bank of Montreal, "The Service Industries." Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects (Ottawa: 1956 p. Ikb. "'"Median forecast. CHAPTER III INCREASING LAND PRODUCTIVITY IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY The Approach Measurement of productivity of manufacturing land Chapter I discussed the changes occurring i n world population, industrialization, and urbanisation and suggested that most countries are progressing towards greater per capita output of food and manufactured goods. It also covered the phenomenon of increasing yields from agricultural lands as a result of different use of capital and labor together with improved technology. By analogy with agriculture's increasing productivity, Chapter II expressed an expectation of a similar occurrence i n manufacturing industry where, by re-application of labor and capital together with technical innovation, a greater output from manufacturing land appears possible. This 'productivity' of manufacturing land has had l i t t l e measurement in the past primarily as a result of insufficient s t a t i s t i c a l data. Individually, adequate information exists for the firm and each business firm expands or contracts i t s land acquisitions to suit needs and expectations. However, the sum 31 32 or total land requirements for an entire manufacturing group i s not readily available. Hence, municipal governments have d i f f i c u l t y i n allocating or zoning adequate amounts of land for industrial purposes and they also find d i f f i c u l t y i n allocating related investments in transportation systems, waste and water systems, or power distribution networks a l l of which require long term investments. Municipal st a t i s t i c s are gathered which show the amounts of land zoned for manufacturing purposes as well as showing ownership of individual parcels. But, these statistics are collected for determining an assessed value of the land and improvements for taxation purposes. Therefore the prime concern i s with the value of the parcel rather than the extent of the land actually in use. By selecting a limited number of sites to look at in detail, i t i s possible to detect changes in the percentage of the site used for any given industry or group of industry. However, to be meaningful this w i l l require correlation with output from the site on a basis of unit area. Output stati s t i c s are not collected by municipal governments and thus i t i s d i f f i c u l t to correlate land requirements with output. The Dominion government does collect data of output from industries but they do not gather information respecting areas of land for industrial use. The f i r s t step i n testing the hypothesis of 'manufacturing land productivity' l i e s in obtaining appropriate data for both 33 land and output in a manner that w i l l permit correlation over a period of time. By obtaining this information for selected time periods i t w i l l be possible to support or reject the hypothesis. Since d i f f i c u l t i e s are encountered i n trying to use and corre-late a combination of municipal and Federal data, the preferred approach i s to obtain the appropriate data directly from the industry concerned. In this way a complete correlation of data can be obtained. The hypothesis w i l l be tested i n only one industry group and thus care should be taken in selecting a representa-tive group. Criteria for selection The attempt here w i l l be to look at the possible productivity of manufacturing land in i t s smallest unit, a single industry group. Thus care should be taken i n selecting the group so i t i s representative of a complete manufacturing process. The following c r i t e r i a were decided to be important in selecting the industry group: 1. There needs to be a distinct pattern of locational concentration so the entire group can be contacted without missing any of them. 2. Permanence of location i s also desired to enable comparative evaluations over different time periods. 3 . The manufacturing process should be indivisible to f a c i l i t a t e comparisons over time. 3 L k. For simplicity of survey, an industrial group with a small number of firms i s preferred. Selection of industry Two possible alternates were considered for examination. They were the Petroleum Refining industry group and the Terminal Grain industry. In each instance there are only a few firms in the industry group. Also there i s a very distinct locational concentration for both of them where the Refineries are predominantly market oriented and the Terminal Grain industry predominantly port oriented. Description of the Terminal Grain industry as a manufacturing industry might be considered as a distortion of the concept of manufacturing and s t a t i s t i c a l l y this group i s divided between the transportation group and the milling industries. However when viewed in the context of local industry a reasonable similarity to other manufacturing industries can be found. In Vancouver and New Westminster, the Terminal Grain industry i s located in industrial zones and i t occupies a major portion of those lands reserved for port oriented industry. As a manufacturing process, the industry receives raw material, the grain, and processes i t by cleaning, drying or milling before shipping the finished grain or flour. The Terminal Grain industry requires land for the process stages of: railway marshalling yards, elevator sidings, 35 elevators, mills, marine docks, loading equipment, and office space. The railway right of way i s excluded as a part of the industry since i t i s required by national transportation policy. I n d i v i s i b i l i t y of this industry appears very strong and i t i s unlikely that changes i n the basic process would alter over time. Under the Canada Grain Act a l l shipments of wheat must be made under the supervision of the Board of Grain Commissioners for Canada. The actual receiving of grain and the processing of i t i s done under license from the Board. The Petroleum Hefining industry also represents a limited number of firms processing petroleum i n the Lower Mainland. There are four refineries which represent the following companies: Br i t i s h American Oil Company Ltd., Imperial Oil Ltd., Shell O i l Co. of Canada Ltd., and Standard Oil Co. of B. C. Ltd.—see Table 3-1. In each case the refinery receives raw materials, crude o i l , and processes i t into finished petroleum products. I n d i v i s i b i l i t y exists also in the petroleum refining group and i t i s not practical to divide or interrupt the manufacturing process. However, a complicating factor does arise since the nature of the finished product has not remained constant. Over the last two decades major changes have occurred in the number and in the character of finished petroleum products. A great many specialty fuels and specialty products have been introduced in addition to the production of more complex motor fuels of improved characteristics. Additional 36 TABLE 3 -1 PETROLEUM REFINERIES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA i 9 6 0 Crude Company Location Source of Crude Capacity Barrels per Day B. A. Oil Company Ltd. Port Moody Alberta 1 8 , 0 0 0 Imperial Oil Ltd. loco Alberta 3 2 , 0 0 0 Pacific Petroleums Ltd. Taylor B. C. 1 , 9 0 0 Royalite O i l Co. Ltd. Kamloops Alberta 2 1 , 0 0 0 Standard O i l Co. of B. C. Ltd. Burnaby Alberta 1 8 , 0 0 0 X-L Refineries Ltd. Dawson Creek B. C. 2 , 8 0 0 Shell O i l Co. of Canada Ltd. Burnaby Alberta 2 1 , 0 0 0 Source: Canada, Dept. of Mines and Technical Surveys, Mineral Resources Division, Mineral Information Bulletin MR 5 2 , "A Survey of the Petroleum Industry in Canada in i 9 6 0 , " (Ottawa: Queen's Printer, 1 9 6 l ) . land has been required for these additional treating plants and therefore a comparison with earlier years i s not as simple as in the Terminal Grain Industry. It can be expected in the future that similar process complexities w i l l occur in the refining of crude petroleum and perhaps the extent of this w i l l be comparable with past experiences. Thus i t might be more desirable to include these changes rather than to exclude them. The Petroleum Refining industry was selected primarily for ease of collecting f i e l d data. A total of over twenty interviews was anticipated for the Terminal Grain industry 37 while only four were required in the Petroleum Refining group. It was f e l t that the reduced number of interviews in the Refining group was commensurate with the time available for f i e l d collection of data. Thus, the Petroleum Refining industry group i n the Lower Mainland was selected for case study. Field Survey Description Prior to undertaking the f i e l d survey a questionnaire form was prepared for subsequent presentation to each refinery respondent. A copy of this form i s attached as Appendix III. Three different years were selected for obtaining data to enable detection of trends. These years were the Census years of 19^1» 1951> and 1 9 6 l . In each year data was requested for the following three items. l i - Refinery throughput 1 for year-2. Employment during year-3. Land Requirements i n Industrial Zone-Each refinery management was visited and during interview the nature and purpose of the survey was discussed together with explanatory information concerning the particular data required. One copy of the questionnaire form was l e f t with each manager to be completed and returned to the University. •Throughput' refers to the physical output from the refinery or the amount of material "put through" the plant. 38 A complete response was received and each refiner generously assisted i n providing the requested data which required a review of operation records going back twenty*years. Survey result Individual replies to the questionnaire were treated as a group and combined as shown i n Table 3 - 2 . Between 1 9 L 1 and 1961 the group throughput of the refineries increased four times; the number of employees doubled; and the amount of land i n active use doubled. Thus a greater utilization of both land and labor has occurred between the two periods. Ratios of these three factors, 'throughput,1 labor, and land are shown in Table 3 - 3 where throughput i s the numerator of the ratio. As described earlier the measure of throughput does not allow for changes in process which since 19kl are more complex and costly. It does include crude o i l received and processed and also receipts of finished and semi-finished products. The receipts of finished and semi-finished products have been included as they are an integral part of the total refinery economics even though the amount of these receipts i s small. While the source of the crude o i l changed from California to Alberta following completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, the total energy per barrel of the crude oil s are similar. Therefore the comparison of. land in active use i s being, made on the basis of similar material inputs to the industry* 39 TABLE 3-2 QUESTIONNAIRE SUMMARY DATA Type of Data a Group" Summary by Years 1961 19^1 19^1b 1) Total refineries' throughput for year: based on intake of crude and semi-finished products, barrels (in thousands) 22,582 8,218 5,623 2) Employment during year: i . mandays (in thousands) 22*+ 157 101 i i . employees (mean number employed) 907 6li+ 388 3) Land requirements i n Industrial Area i . total area at refineries, acres (onsite and offsite) 1,339 616 562 i i . area i n active-usef acres (onsite and offsite) k53 226 215 Source: Original data collected by questionnaire to four refineries i n Lower Mainland, which was personally presented to respondent and l e f t for return by mail to the University. aChanges have occurred within the industry since 19hl including the opening of the fourth refinery in 1958 as well as dispersal of some activ i t i e s to other sites. The survey attempted to collect data for the years 19^1, 1951, and 1961. This column contains data for the year 19*+5 for one respondent, which has been used without alteration. cActive-use includes: process areas, tank farms, offices, f i l l stands, blending and packaging plants, r a i l spurs, roadways, maintenance areas. 1+0 TABLE 3-3 THROUGHPUT RATIOS OF SUMMARY DATA FOR LOWER MAINLAND OIL REFINERY GROUP Description and Units Ratio by Year 1961 1951 1 9 L l b 1) Group throughput per mandays worked in year, (barrels per manday) 1,000 523 556 2) Group throughput per employee in year, barrels per man, thousands) 2k.9 13.L li+.5 3) Group mandays worked per employee in year, (mandays per man) 2l+7 256 261 h) Group throughput per unit land i n active use i n year, (barrels per acre, thousands) L9.7 C 36A 26.2 Source: A l l data taken from Table 3-2. aGroup consists of o i l refiners i n Lower Mainland of B. C , and while the composition of the group has changed along with different distribution of a c t i v i t i e s , the survey endeavored to collect comparable data for the selected years. This column contains data for 19k5 and one respondent only; the rest are 19kl» and i t was included without alteration. cThis value would be 5L»2 M barrels per acre i f only the earlier three refiners were considered; i.e., deducting both throughput and land i n active use at fourth refinery from the group total. kl The refineries utilized their resources in 19^1 i n a manner so that they required a total of 215 acres of active-use land and processed a total of 5 1/2 million barrels during the year. By proportion, more than 26 thousand barrels of through-put were refined for each acre of land i n active use. This ratio increased 38 per cent i n 1951 to 36 thousand barrels a year per acre. A similar increase of 38 per cent occurred during the following decade when, i n 1 9 6 l , the throughput per acre reached nearly 50 thousand barrels per year. Between the twenty years .19^1-1961 there was an 89 per cent increase in annual throughput per acre. For study purposes the term active-land-use includes a l l land that i s necessary for conducting petroleum refinery operations and includes: process areas, tank farms, offices, f i l l stands, blending and packaging plants, r a i l spurs, road-ways, and maintenance areas. Excluded from this definition i s land held for future use and unusable land. The amount of unusable area i n the case of this industry i s large as a result of the steep slopes where the refineries are located. Several of the refinery sites have rises i n elevation of 100 feet or more and up to 300 feet. A photograph i l l u s t r a t i o n i s shown in Figure 5 ' In native soils an a r t i f i c i a l l y protected slope would be stable on a 1 1/2 to 1 incline and untreated slopes require considerably f l a t t e r inclines. As consequence not a l l the land can be utilized and a large portion must remain i n an unusable 1+2 m 4 s ; f HUNT, IN 0 SURVEV C 0 R P. LT0. PHOTO 1956 § 3 5 AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH OF PETROLEUM REFINERY LOWER MAINLAND OF 8, C. L e 0 a n d ! • Tonk form '2- Procoaa area 3- Office 4- F i l l Stand 5- Blending & Packaging Plant 6' Railway T Maintenance Area **3 slope until extensive terracing i s carried out with vertical retaining walls. However such a proposed terracing i s costly and i n most cases prohibitive. It i s unlikely that within the next twenty years the price of land w i l l increase sufficiently to justify the cost of terracing. The unusable land could be approximated by an equivalent strip 150 feet wide for every 100 foot rise in elevation. Where the difference i n elevation i s 300 feet, this strip would be *+50 feet wide. A rough appraisal of the land i n the refining group indicates that about one half of the recorded area i s unusable as a result of the steep slopes. In 19^1 the refinery group held 562 acres while only 215? or about one half, were i n active use. Similarly in 1951 and 196l, the apparent excess land was predominantly unusable. Using refinery throughput as the numerator, the proportionate changes in labor over the period are presented in Table 3-3. In lykl there were 556 barrels refined per manday worked. This declined i n 1951 to 523 barrels per manday and possibly as a result of the greater effort in 19^1 during the war and labor shortages. By 196l the output per manday per 1000 barrels almost doubled that of 1951. The decreasing manday year per employee has resulted from a shorter work week and increased holidays from work. As a consequence, the changes i n throughput per employee are not as great as the changes i n throughput per manday. In 191+1 the ratio of mandays per employee kk was 26l days per year and this dropped to 256 i n 1951 and further to 2k7 in 1961. Over the twenty years there has been a five per cent decrease i n the number of mandays per employee per year. The f i r s t decade of this period saw a 2% decrease while the second decade received nearly twice that or 3 1/2 per cent decrease. Summary This case study of the Petroleum Refining Industry in the Lower Mainland of B. C. was completed with results that verified the hypothesis. Over the last two decades the apparent increase i n refinery throughput per worker rose from 15 to 25 thousand barrels per year or an increase of 67 per cent. During the same time the apparent increase in throughput per unit of land increased from 26 to 50 thousand barrels per acre per year for an 89 per cent increase. Thus there has been a 'productivity' of manufacturing land i n the Petroleum Refining group and the increase has exceeded the apparent productivity of labor during the same period. Conclusion Continuing land productivity increases in the Petroleum Refinery group or in other manufacturing industries w i l l significantly affect the forecast amount of land required. A similar experience in a l l manufacturing industries of the same proportion as this example would result in an overestimation of h5 future industrial land requirements. Using the past changes i n the Refinery group as an example, i f the 'productivity' of manufacturing land were excluded, this overestimation would approach 100 per cent over a twenty year period. Municipal land assessment records are inadequate for use in forecasting industrial land requirements. In the Refinery group, 1339 acres were held by the refiners in 1961 while only !+53 acres were in active use. The greater portion of the difference was unusable land resulting from steep slopes at the site. Generally, the assessment land measure i s not concerned with actual land use but rather with the 'best use' that the land has and this i s measured ultimately in dollars rather than in acres used. Government stati s t i c s of production in the industrial groups are not generally coincident with planning areas or regions. Employment data are available locally for every firm with more than ten employees and consequently i t offers opportunity for use as a substitute for production data. How-ever i f i t were used to predict the land requirements i n this example for 19&1, based on 19^1 data of employees per acre, i t would be ten per cent i n error even though the precise number of future employees was known i n advance. The effect of this error would be to exaggerate the difference between actual and forecast requirements i n excess of 10 per cent. If the i n i t i a l labor estimate were 33 per cent high, the 10 per cent error in employees per acre would produce a 50 per cent error in land estimates. 1+6 It i s unlikely that, a satisfactory system of data collection for land use forecasts could be obtained from ut i l i z i n g existing data collection sources. Possibly, a new and separate data collection system would be required which might u t i l i z e effectively the present Federal, Provincial, and Municipal departments concerned with collecting s t a t i s t i c a l information. Such a new system would consider the location of the firm with zoning d i s t r i c t s ; the quantitative measure of production; the d i v i s i b i l i t y of the firm into other industrial groups; and the amount of land in active use as well as total land held in reserve. CHAPTER IV DIRECT AND INDIRECT METHODS OF FORECASTING URBAN LAND USE Introduction Chapter II discussed methods of forecasting employment and output which were of interest for physical planning of urban areas. With these methods an approximation could be made of future land area requirements for specific purposes. These methods included the Economic Base concept, the Input-Output analysis, and the Apportionment technique of relating a study for a large area to a smaller area or region. The Economic Base method provided a short-cut way of estimating future employment from a study of only one portion of the total employment. By isolating this portion, or base, and by predicting employment changes in i t , a ratio could be applied to produce the total forecast employment. As a fore-casting means for projecting average needs in different zones, the method i s incomplete. However, by supplementing the study with information on densities, such as employees per acre, a land forecast can be made. Also, by selecting the base group to coincide with the firms operating in a distinct zoning d i s t r i c t , such as the manufacturing group, a correlation can be h7 k8 obtained between employment forecast and land forecast in the same zoning d i s t r i c t . If the manufacturing group were selected as the base, a forecast of the balance or secondary employment could be made by applying the base ratio. The Apportionment technique i s a means of u t i l i z i n g state or national forecasts for local or urban purposes. The principle relies on an interdependence between the several parts and the whole where the economic activity of each part i s affected by and affects a l l other parts. Thus i f the local area has consistently each year enjoyed wx" per cent of the national employment i t i s probable that this w i l l continue i n the future. Hence a forecast of employment for the nation can be apportioned to suit the local level. However, like the economic base approach, i t does not indicate land forecasts and these must be derived by relating land to the forecast. Since a national production forecast may be i n dollars or in numbers of employed, the derivation must relate land to either dollars or employees. The Input-Output approach as a means of economic forecast offers a more precise method for determining output. In principle i t acknowledges the interrelationship of a l l business enterprises and thus assists i n determining the effect of the one upon the other. Its use precludes having complete accounting data for a l l business groups and thus i t s u t i l i t y i s limited to the national level. As such i t has l i t t l e direct application for urban land forecasting. It does offer, though, a more promising ^9 means for precise national.economic forecasting which could be used indirectly, by apportionment, for local forecasts. Each of these forecast methods i s an indirect approach to forecasting land use. The prime study of forecast does not consider land but rather output in dollars or by employees. As such i t excludes from view some of the inherent phenomena between output and land. Chapters II and III introduced a concept which i s excluded from the indirect approach to land forecasting. : This concept appears analogous to the familiar 'productivity of. labor' in manufacturing industries and also to the productivity of agricultural land. The concept was applied or tested in one industry group which gave a positive indication of increasing manufacturing output per acre of land. . This chapter w i l l discuss what,effect the increased productivity of land could have i f i t were included in a forecast of the industry group examined. It w i l l do this by presenting two methods of land forecast: the indirect apportionment method, and the direct survey method. Forecast by Apportionment National forecast The forecast to be apportioned in this, example i s the study undertaken by the Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects. 1. Their forecast of selected industrial groups was "4). H. Fuller ton and H. A. Hampson, "Canadian Secondary Manufacturing Industry," Royal Commission on Canada's Economic  Prospects (Ottawa: Queen's Printer, 1 9 5 7 ) • 50 made on the basis of observed trends and economies of the group as adjusted by intuitive reasoning. In each major industry group considerable coherent s t a t i s t i c a l data was available respecting employment, value of production, and cost of manufacture. Petroleum and Coal Products industry was one of the selected major groups for their forecast. Two major industries comprise this group: 'petroleum refineries,' and 'other petroleum and coal products industries.' This latter industry i s further subdivided to include: roofing compounds, paving, coal gas manufacture, coking plants, and fuel briquettes. A growth factor of hOO was assigned to the Petroleum and Coal Products group to represent the increase in output between 1955 and 1980. By 1980 the gross value of their production would reach k.65 b i l l i o n dollars with 1.2 b i l l i o n of p the total added by the production process. Allowing for apparent productivity increases i n labor, they predicted a hO per cent increase i n employees to reach a total employment i n 1980 of 2k thousand. This national forecast of output for the Petroleum and Coal Products group can now be apportioned to reveal the share contributed by the Lower Mainland Region of B. C. Fortunately this has already been done for this industry group by the Lower •3 Mainland Regional Planning Board-' as part of a bigger study and 2Ibid., Table J and Table K. 1. -•Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, Manufacturing  Industry i n the Lower Mainland Region of British Columbia 1931  to 1976 (New Westminster. I960): Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, The Dynamics of Industrial Land Settlement (New Westminster, 1961). 51 therefore needs not to be duplicated. Rather, an attempt w i l l be made to describe the Board's study and the method they used to reach the apportioned forecast. Apportionment by Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board The f i r s t step i n making the land forecast for the local area was to determine what share of future national production would be contributed by this area and to convert this output into an employment forecast. This step i s explained in the Report, "Manufacturing Industry i n the Lower Mainland Region of British Columbia." This study used s t a t i s t i c a l data generally from the Dominion Bureau of Statistics to represent value of production and employment in the local area. This data was readily available for census d i s t r i c t h which closely approximates the region under review. In addition an interview was held with each operating firm which augmented the necessary data and en-abled a basis for intuitive reasoning i n the forecast. A review of past experience showed that the Lower Main-land region contributed 1.2 per cent of the total 1931 national output i n petroleum and coal products, and non-metallic minerals groups. This share steadily increased to k.k per cent by 1956 and the 'Board's' judgement was that this share would increase to 5 . 5 per cent by 1976. In their study they combined the petroleum and coal products group with the non-metallic minerals group. This latter group comprises building product industries such as cement manufactures, lime manufacturers, ready-mix 52 concrete, clay products, mineral wool manufacture and other similar a c t i v i t i e s . Gross value of production for the combined major groups was forecast by the Royal Commission at 5.k b i l l i o n dollars in 1980 and of this amount 1.6 b i l l i o n was added by manufacturing process. Their estimate of combined employment in the two groups was 69 thousand persons. The 'Board' advanced the Royal Commission forecast from 1980 to 1976 and arrived at a gross value of production i n the combined major groups of *+.l b i l l i o n dollars. The Lower Main-land share of this production, at 5 .5 per cent, i s 226 million dollars or an increase of 60*+ per cent between 1953 and 1976. Employment in 1976 was determined by projecting present employment with the growth factor reduced by the expected productivity increases. The Royal Commission anticipated annual increases i n the apparent productivity of labor of 2 1/2 per cent for the non-metallic mineral group and five per cent for the products of petroleum and coal group. The 'Board' combined these increases into an annual rate of three per cent for the two groups. On this basis they prepared a forecast employment of 5 .5 thousand by 1976 in the two groups. Further study enabled the total employment to be divided into each industry group and The Royal Commission excluded cement manufacturing and abrasives manufacturing from their definition of secondary manufacturing. These industries are included i n the D. B. S. major group, non-metallic minerals. However these processes were not represented in the local region until late 1950's. 53 2 0 0 0 o f the total were expected in the Petroleum and Coal. Products industry group. This completed the f i r s t step in the land forecast. This f i r s t step required three individual judgements which are cumulative in their probable error of the f i n a l employment forecast. The f i r s t was a selection of the. future percentage share of national output; the second was a judgement of the relationship between output and employment; and the third, applicable i n this case only, was i n determining what portion of the total combined group employment forecast would be expected in the Petroleum and Coal products group. These, of course, w i l l be probable errors in addition to the.probable error of the national forecast of production. The second and f i n a l step in making the land forecast i s described i n the. report, The Dynamics of Industrial Land  Settlement. This study converts the employment forecast into a land forecast. Municipal assessment records were used to obtain the amount of land in each industry group for their, survey, under-taken in 1 9 5 8 . During the survey each respondent firm indicated the portion, of their site i n active use. Thus, they could prepare an estimate of the present industry land probably in active use by 1 9 7 6 . For the Petroleum refining and coal products group, this portion was estimated at 70 per cent by 1976. 5h The r e l a t i o n between employment and areas of land i n the industry group was made by a simple r a t i o of the two. The forecast r a t i o of density was made by a judgement of trends i n gross densities of newly established firms and firms established i n the early 1 9 0 0 's. From these the 'Board' selected a future s i t e density of 0 . 8 workers per acre for e x i s t i n g unused portions of s i t e area, and O.K workers per acre for densities appropriate to new land acquisitions. The r e s u l t was a forecast for an addit i o n a l 1200 acres i n the industry with an addit i o n a l 567 workers.^ The second step introduced two more judgements one of which would produce a cumulative probable error i n the t o t a l land forecast. These judgements were i n determining the future employee de n s i t i e s , which i s accumulative and the estimation of land presently held i n reserve to be used by 1 9 7 6 . Some idea of the precision of the apportionment forecast method can be determined as follows. Assuming a s k i l l of judge-ment of plus or minus ten per cent the probable error of the t o t a l forecast can be determined by the sum of the accumulative number of judgements. I f each judgement were made with the same ten per cent s k i l l the f i v e i n d i v i d u a l judgements would r e s u l t i n a probable error of plus or minus f i f t y per cent. That i s , the f i n a l land forecast of an additional 1200 acres could go as high as 1800 acres or as low as 600 acres. •^TheLLower Mainland Regional Planning Board of B. C , The Dynamics of I n d u s t r i a l Land Settlement« Table V. 55 Direct forecast of future land area Industrial output i s determined by market demand, and a forecast of output i s made by forecasting probable demand. In this example of a direct approach to land forecasting, a forecast has been made for the output from the petroleum refineries i n the Lower Mainland region. This forecast i s attached as Appendix IV. In meeting this output, the industry can u t i l i z e i t s resources of land, labor, and capital i n various ways. The actual relationship between them w i l l vary over time and w i l l be dependent upon the industries' economics. By using greater amounts of capital, to i n s t a l l new technical methods and better equipment, the output can be increased.without necessarily -increasing either land or labor. In this way there w i l l be an apparent increasing productivity of labor and also an apparent productivity of manufacturing land. The f i e l d survey of the Petroleum Refining group., as described i n Chapter III, showed that the 196l output was 50 thousand barrels per acre. Over the last two decades this output had increased 89 per cent i n f a i r l y uniform increases, per decade. A further 89 per cent increase could be expected by 198O by continuation of this trend. But, without examination of the internal economies of the industry as well as viewing external economies, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to predict this continuation. However on the basis of petroleum providing a smaller part of the total energy market in the future i t i s l i k e l y that more 56 specialty products w i l l be produced. As a result, a greater amount of land would be required for these additional processes. On this basis, an increase of only 50 per cent could be expected which would result i n an output of 75 thousand barrels per acre by 1 9 8 0 . The production forecast of Appendix IV has a mean value of k2 million barrels output annually by 1 9 8 0 . This throughput i s li k e l y to be achieved by the use of 560 acres of land. At present *+53 acres are in active use out of a total of 1339 acres. However a rough estimate of the existing land indicates about one half of i t i s unusable for development. Thus only about 670 acres are available but, this i s s t i l l i n excess of the forecasted requirement. By using this direct approach, three independent judge-ments were required: a selection of the output by 1 9 8 0 , an estimation of the acres required per barrel of output, and an estimate of the land presently held i n reserve to be used by 1 9 8 0 . Assuming the same s k i l l i n estimating of 10 per cent accuracy that was used i n the previous example, a probable error of plus or minus 30 per cent could be expected for the f i n a l land forecast. This would be expressed as between *+00 and 700 acres. If the higher value were realized an additional 30 acres might be required. 57 Comparison of direct forecast and apportioned forecast A direct comparison of the end result of the two forecasts i s not possible since they do not represent identical industries. The direct forecast was made solely for the Petroleum Refining industry white the apportioned forecast included more than this with the coal products or manufactured gas industry. However with introduction of natural gas the existing gas plant (B. C. Electric Co.) has become idled. Assuming that a comparison can be made the following differences are noted: 1. The apportionment forecast indicates a need for 1200 additional acres by 1976 while the direct method forecasts a surplus of land by 1 9 8 0 . 2 . The apportionment technique has a probable error of plus or minus 50 per cent while the direct method has only 30 per cent probable error i f the same s k i l l s are applied to each estimate. 3 . The forecast employment by apportionment i s 2000 workers. Using the data of the direct survey an increase of 100 per cent i n worker output can be expected which w i l l produce an estimate of 8*+0 workers by 1 9 8 0 . CHAPTER V DIRECT URBAN LAND FORECAST Summary Need for physical planning in Canada Since 1871 the population of Canada has increased by 15 million. During this period the population shifted from predominantly rural to urban centers so today more than 65 per cent of a l l Canadians live i n c i t i e s . As a result the urban places have had to provide homes, shops, schools, streets, water, and a l l other related services for 11 million additional persons. Most of the additional population moved to existing big urban centers with their greater employment opportunities which resulted i n the big c i t i e s getting bigger. To keep pace with this growth federal, provincial, and municipal government spending increased from 0.8 b i l l i o n dollars i n 1926 to 11 b i l l i o n i n I960. Private disposable income increased also with a fourfold per capita increase since 1926. A portion of the increased per capita wealth has been spent on providing personal transportation offered by the automobile. With auto-dominant transportation, the social and cultural desires for suburban living have materialized and the 58 59 c i t i e s have expanded sideways and tended to spread out i n low density development. This lower density together with a greater population has increased the cost of servicing land with roads, water, and sewers as well as more recent improvements and has caused concern about how these additional costs are to be financed. Population forecast and economic forecast The rapid growth of the c i t i e s and metropolitan areas requires a program of planned spending to keep apace of the demand for new services. The basis for making this spending program i s the forecast of population and employment. For the nation, the population forecast i s made by a perusal of the l i k e l y additions and deletions to the population. A separation of population from economic forecasts i s d i f f i c u l t since, in part, population i s a reflection of the socio-economic well-being of the country. Both the cultural values and economic proficiency of society affect the rate of births, deaths and migrations. With given resources and income, a society can choose, within limits of regulation, between spending the entire income for subsistence in a growing population or they can control population and spend some portion of income on physical and aesthetic forms of leisure. As income increases there i s greater choice between spending the increment on leisure or on increased population. In practice the Western countries have tended to do both 60 resulting i n increased population and increased per capita wealth. Thus a forecast of population i s inextricably tied to a forecast of economic growth. The generalized conditions affecting such a forecast are expressed by W. ¥. Rostow in the six propensities of a society to develop as described i n ' Chapter I. The smallest coherent unit i n making such a forecast of population and economic growth i s the nation since today there are large economic and cultural ties between the various areas or regions of the country as well as jurisdictional limits restricting free movement of people, goods and capital. At the city level another problem arises i n making a forecast of population. There are no controls over movement i n or out of Canadian urban areas and thus changes can occur quickly i n migration rates or i n the shipments of goods and capital. How-ever these changes might be anticipated readily providing there i s data representing movements of these factors. Unfortunately such stati s t i c s presently are not collected for the local areas in a l l instances. Urban land forecast In the urban area land i s needed for many different purposes and the amount i n any one purpose i s dependent i n part on the size of the population and the intensity of economic activity. Thus the urban area also requires a forecast of population and of local economics and i t requires this in 6 1 relation to actual site locations which w i l l permit the land use plan to be implemented by zoning regulations. A forecast of increased manufacturing activity, for example, when' correlated with acres of zoned land w i l l permit an extension or reduction of area or services i n that zone. In the past studies have been made independently for future population and future economic activity i n urban areas but not without consideration of each other. Generally an economic study has been favoured as a means of forecasting the land requirements for industrial, commercial and manufacturing uses, while the population forecast has been favored for anticipating required areas of residential land. In making the economic study frequent recourse i s made to national forecasts and to relate this to the local requirements. However, in Canada, the national forecast rarely considers the economic factor of land as a part of the variables of production i n industry. It confines i t s e l f to considering only capital and labor i n relation to output. Thus the relationship of land to production becomes obscured in relating national economic forecasts to the urban area. Apparent Productivity of manufacturing land In this current study an attempt was made to demon-strate the variable use of inputs of land in manufacturing industries. By analogy to the apparent productivity of labor and productivity of agricultural land an hypothesis of product-i v i t y i n manufacturing land has been postulated. Experience in 62 the Petroleum Refining industry i n the Lower Mainland of B. C. substantiates this thesis where the apparent "land productivity" doubled between 19^1 and 196l. The testing of such a thesis can readily be done by a direct survey method which relates land to output from that land. Direct and indirect urban land forecasts With changing land productivity i n manufacturing industries an attempt should be made to relate future output to land by direct survey methods. For i l l u s t r a t i v e purposes, a comparison was made between an indirect approach to land forecasting and a direct one. The direct approach i s discussed in Chapter IV and the same section describes an earlier study by the Lower Mainland Planning Board of B. C. This comparison could not indicate the degree to which each method was sensitive to detecting changes i n land productivity since they cover somewhat different industry groups. However some measure of the precision of the two methods can be indicated. If estimating accuracy were 100 per cent in each method, which i s most unlikely, the probable error of the f i n a l answer would reflect the precision of each judgement multiplied by. the number of accumulative judgements. Where one judgement i s dependent on another prior judgement, the probable error i s compounded. 63 Five accumulative judgements were made in the indirect forecast reviewed while only three were made i n the direct forecast. If the precision of each judgement was plus or minus ten per cent, the probable error of the indirect forecast i s plus or minus 50 per cent while the direct forecast error i s probably plus or minus 30 per cent. Thus the direct approach offers a more precise forecast of future land requirements. Considering these two methods as local labor forecasting techniques, the probable error would be the same in each case based on three judgements. Conclusion Urban land forecasts w i l l assist effective and efficient governmental and private investment to accommodate a growing population and changing economic structure of local areas. Imprecise survey methods w i l l either encourage sprawled development i f they are too high or w i l l impose individual restrictions i f they are too low. In this respect care should be taken i n selecting the method of making the forecast to ensure the greatest degree of precision. The direct forecast method for estimating industrial land requirements appears to offer a greater precision than the indirect or apportionment method and i t also offers a means for detecting changes i n the apparent productivity of urban land by relating output to land. In addition, i t also introduces a qualitative measurement of the land in use and available for use. 6k Present s t a t i s t i c a l data do not identify industrial activity by location i n urban zones and therefore do not permit a correlation between output and land area. Since the federal government collects s t a t i s t i c a l data respecting employment and output and the municipal governments collect land use data i t i s unlikely that adequate or comparable information w i l l be available for urban land forecasting until alterations are made i n each data collection system. These changes would recognize current sources of collecting statistics and would change the purpose of collection by including urban land forecast purposes with particular attention to correlation of population, employment output and land. BIBLIOGRAPHY Books Barnett, Harold J. "Specific Industry Output Projections," National Bureau of Economic Research, Studies i n Income and Wealth, vol. 16. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1 9 5 L . Higgins, Benjamin. Economic Development. New York: W. W. Norton and Co. Inc., 1959. Isard, Schooler, Vietorisz. Industrial Complex Analysis and Regional Development. London: Chapman and Hall, 1959-Pfouts, Ralph W., edited by. The Technique of Urban Economic  Analysis. West Trenton, New Jersey: Chandler-Davis, I960. Renne, Roland R. Land Economics. New York: Harper and Bros., 1958. Rostow, W. W. The Process of Economic Growth. New York: W. W. Norton and Co. Inc., 1952. Russell, Sir John. World Population and World Food Supplies. London: Allen and Unwin Ltd., 1956. Schultz, T. W. The Economic Organization of Agriculture. New York: McGraw H i l l Book Co. Inc., 1953. Schwerdtfeger, Hans. Introduction to Linear Algebra and the  Theory of Matrices. Groningen: P. Noordhoff, 1950. Woog, Dr. Henri. The Tableau Economique of Francois Quesnay. Bern: A. Francke, 1950. Articles and Periodicals Blumenfeld, Hans. "The Economic Base of the Metropolis," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. xxi, No. h. 65 66 G i l l i e s , James and Grigsby, William. "Classification Errors in Base Ratio Analysis," Journal of the American In-stitute of Planners, Vol. x x i i , No. 1. Isard, Walter. "Interregional Analysis and Regional Develop-ment," The American Economic Review, XL111 2), May 1953. . "Interregional and Regional Input-Output Analysis: A Model of a Space Economy," The Review of  Economics and S t a t i s t i c s . XXX111 (318-20), November 1951. and Kuenne, Robert E. "The Impact of Steel upon the Greater New York - Philadelphia Industrial Region: A Study in Agglomeration Projection," The Review of  Economics and Sta t i s t i c s , XXV, *+), November 1953* Sargent, Florence P. "The Techniques of Industrial Location," Architectural Review, March 19^3 • Reports and Technical Papers The Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board of B. C. Industrial  Land Prospects in the Lower Mainland Region of B. C. New Westminster: Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board of B. C., November 196l. . Manufacturing Industry in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. New Westminster, B. C., i960. . The Dynamics of Industrial Land Settlement. New Westminster: Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board of B. C., October 196l. Public Documents Board of Grain Commissioners for Canada. Canada Grain Exports. Ottawa: Queen's Printer annual, 19^5-57. ' " Canada, Dominion Bureau of Sta t i s t i c s , Research and Development Division. The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services, Canada. 19^9. Reference Paper No. 72, Ottawa: Queen's Printer, 1956. . Supplement to the Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services, Canada, 19*4-9. Ottawa:Queen's Printer, i960. 67 Cudmore, S. A. and Caldwell, H. G. Canada Census Monographs. 19^1. No. 6 Rural and Urban Composition of the Canadian Population. Ottawa: The King's Printer, 1 9 3 8 . Dominion Bureau of Sta t i s t i c s . Canada Year Book. I960. Ottawa: Queen's Printer, i 9 6 0 . . General Review of the Manufac-turing Industries of Canada. Annually. Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects. Final Report. November, 1 9 5 7 . Special References (Petroleum Refining) Burn, Duncan, edited by. The Structure of British Industry. Vol. 1, London, Cambridge University Press, 1 9 5 8 . E s t a l l , R. C. and Buchanan, R. Ogilvie. Industrial Activity and  Economic Geography. London, Hutchinson University Library, 1 9 6 1 . Shell International Petroleum Company Limited. The Petroleum  Handbook, *+th edition, London, 1959* APPENDIX I (QUESNAY1S ZIG-ZAG CHART AS INTERPRETED BY H. WOOG The 'tableau 1 presented by Quesnay i n 1758 was his attempt to portray the dependence of the national economy upon that of agriculture and to show the inter-dependency of trans-actions between the three social classes of Land Owners, i Productive Class, and the Sterile Class. He also used i t as an i l l u s t r a t i o n to show the results of'disequilibrium caused by improper interference of the government especially i n taxation and hoarding. The diagram of Fig. 6 i s an interpretation of Quesnay's Tableau i n equilibrium which has been presented by Dr. Henri H. Woog, The Tableau Economique of Francoise Quesnay (Bern: A. Francke, 1 9 5 0 ) , p. 9 9 : "The juxtaposition of the zig-zag diagrams i n equilibrium and in the state of diseq u i l i -brium corresponds to Quesnay's discrimination of the 'ordre naturel' and the 'ordre positif.' Solely the exposition of both versions of the Tableau demonstrates the central importance of the conception of circulation within the Physiocratic Theory;" p. 3 6 : "The Tableau economique i n equilibrium constitutes an attempt to present the successful process of production and circulation i n a 'nation agricole' resulting from the s t r i c t observations of the natural order. In other words, the Tableau relates to a state of economy attained by the consequent application of the principles of the 'ordre naturel' to the 'ordre positif.' It represents an economic system that has virtually realized the postulates expounded by the Physiocratic Theory . . . ." 68 69 Woog. This diagram has extended the basic features of the original "Tableau" to include the "Analyse" or written description by Quesnay that accompanied his presentation. In his text he described the social classes as: The Land-owning class constitutes the socially pre-dominant category of the nation. It embraces the State, or Sovereign, the worldly land-proprietors, and the clergy . . . . 2 while the Sterile class comprised the manufacturers and the merchants of the nation. His description of the productive class represented the independent farmers. A fourth class of workers^  or "menu people" i s neglected i n his "Tableau economique" since i t comprises only the population deriving i t s wage-income solely from the source of manual work. Dr. Woog uses a diagram to ill u s t r a t e Quesney's theory of economic regulation and growth. The diagram shows that the agricultural harvest yields are sufficient: to refund the working capital consumed or used i n the growing process; to provide an interest on the invested or fixed capital; and to leave a surplus or net product (produit net). The net product i s distributed as profit to the farmer, as tithe to the clergy, and as taxes and rents to the land owners. Clearly, the prosperity of the land owners, the clergy as well as the farmer are dependent upon the production and sale of the agricultural produce. Consequently, the nation's prosperity and, as a result i t s economic growth, are connected to the 2Ibid., p. 18. 70 proper regulation of the production and distribution of the agricultural produce. Common welfare depends upon the farmers' wealth. Preferablement a tout, le royaume doit etre bien peuple de riches cultivateurs . 3 The produce of the fie l d s must be sold at adequate prices to enable everyone to share in the 'surplus' and this necessitates proper regulation of the production. The agriculture process of production depends on an adequate organization of the circulation sphere in the sense that i t s possibilities of development and amelioration rise and f a l l together with the quantity of commodities that farmers are in a position to purchase in exchange for their products. According to the assumption that solely the 'grande culture' produces wealth in form of surplus, there ensues an interdependence of the individuals in a community: the farmers' welfare depending on the other classes' willingness and capacity to spend their incomes on the purchase of agricultural goods, whereas the entire nation's prosperity i s closely connected with the effectiveness of the farming methods.^ The intricacies of the normal circulation of money which result i n the distribution of wealth, are shown in the "Tableau" an interpretation of which has been made by Br. Henri Woog and i s shown i n Fig. 6, "Interpretation of Quesnay's Tableau Economique." In the chart the consumption of agricultural products i s made by both the Sterile and the Land Owning classes. Similarly, consumption of the manufactured product i s made by ^A. Oncken, Oeuvres Economiques et Philosophiques de  Francois Ouesnay (Francfort s/M et Paris, 1 8 8 8 ) , p. 3 3 3 , Maxime IX. cited from Woog, O P. c i t . . p. 2 3 . 1+ Woog, op. c i t . . p. 2 2 . 71 Sterile Class 125 1000 1000 125 2000 125 2000 125 2000 125 1000 Fig. 6. Interpretation of Quesnay's Tableau Economiquea aHenri Woog, p. 75s "Quesnay's Tableau economique completed according to the data supplied by the Formula." both the productive and the land-owning classes. The 2000 units at the top of column (b) represent the part of 'rent' paid to the land owners, as shown by i t s movement to the top of the column (d) (by direction of the arrow). The 1000 units at the top of the column (e) i s the part of the working capital of the Sterile class. 72 Starting at the beginning of a cycle, the sterile class use this working capital to make an i n i t i a l purchase of 1000 units of agricultural produce. The land owners also make a purchase of 1000 units of agricultural produce which i s immedi-ately returned to the land owning class as repayment of working capital. A second expenditure of the land owners i s made for manufactures worth 1000 units which i s immediately used by the sterile class for two purposes: one to buy additional food and agricultural goods; and the second, 500 units, to start replenishing their working capital. It i s noted that the portion used for food i s quickly returned to the land owners. As shown in column (e), each receipt of the sterile class i s dispersed in like manner between agricultural goods and replacing working capital. This continues in diminishing amounts as the cycle proceeds, until the entire working capital of 1000 units i s replaced. See total at bottom of column ( f ) . It i s realized of course that in fact the total circulation of agricultural or manufactured goods does not continually decrease but there i s continual addition of new sums to the process which also have the secondary stimulating effect of the f i r s t sum as shown i n this table. That i s , the consumption of both agricultural produce and manufacturing produce tends to be uniform throughout the year, rather than diminishing, and i n i t i a l expenditures are made continually by a l l three classes. 73 Over the complete cycle the sterile class has had receipts of 2000 units: 1000 each from the land owners and productive classes; and has made expenditures of 2000 units; 1000 of which went to the productive class directly and the other 1000 indirectly to the land owners class after receipt by the productive class, i.e., the amounts shown in columns (b) and (c) coming from the sterile class. The Land Owners have accepted the i n i t i a l 2000 unit of rent plus another 2000 units accumulated over the cycle by returns from the productive class. In this period they have expended only 2000 units; 1000 each to the other two classes; and hence have retained the 2000 units of rent intact (presum-ably available for expansion of the manufacturing processes or for more agricultural a c t i v i t i e s ) . The productive class, after i n i t i a l rent payment amounting to 2000 units, received a total of 3000 units where 1000 came from the land owners and 2000 from the sterile class. Excluding the rent payment, this class made expenditures of 3000 units; 1000 units for manufactures, and 2000 units for replacing working capital. It can be seen from this table that in a well-regulated economy the needs of a l l classes can be met and s t i l l result i n a residue, the rent, for expanding the economy. Quesnay i n cooperation with Mirabeau wrote further on the results of a disequilibrium of the economy and used the same method of presentation with the "Tableau." However, this i s not included here. APPENDIX II LEONTEIF INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS (Using matrix algebra) Input-output analysis, as described i n Chapter II, i s a technique used to determine the inter-relationship of industries within a given area. The area i s generally a large economic unit such as the nation but with further refinement i t might be used for a smaller area such as a region. The method util i z e s dollar values of a l l transactions of firms (or groups of firms) considering purchases and sales from other firms both within the area and outside the area. These values are tabulated in a large 'two account' tabulation sheet where each transaction i s accounted for twice, once as a sale and once as a purchase for the two parties to the transaction. In this way i t can be seen that a dependency exists between firms where the sales of one may be the purchases of another in the normal operation of the firm. Determination of the extent of such dependency i s a laborious task when approached by the t r i a l and error method and the technique lends i t s e l f to the application of that part of mathematics called 'Matrix Algebra.' With this mathematical assistance, the task of resolving the inter-dependencies i s reduced where i t i s feasible 7h 75 in practice to solve the problem but generally only with the use of rapid electronic computers."1" A typical tabulation of the type used in the input-output analysis i s shown i n Table 6-2, with a simple reduction in form shown in Table 6-3. It i s possible to duplicate these tables in algebraic terms by using equations to represent the horizontal rows. Then the output of the industry, shown in column 51» i s the sum of individual columns entries for that industry and which can be expressed i n the form: a l x l + a2 x2 + a3 x3 + • • • an xn = b ^ where b i s the output of a given industry and the ax's represent the transactions with a l l other individual industries. The symbol x would represent a production factor of the industry, with i t s identifying separate subscript, and symbol a i s the ratio of that factor used i n transaction with industry b. In the example of Table 6-2, the value of the f i r s t term of equation (1), the a x, would be 75»2 million dollars. Similarly the value of the second term, a x, would be 5»5 million dollars and so on until every column was entered i n the equation for the row industry and equated to the last column value of 1260 million which i s the value of symbol b. When this algebraic approach i s used for a l l the rows the result i s a group of equations which "hfl. E. Boston, "A Simulation of the Economy of British Columbia." Engineering Journal, vol. Uh, no. 11, November 196l, p. 7k: "A simple aggregate model (20x20) can be prepared and tested in about one or two man years . . . . The machine elapsed running time (the computer) would be about one hour at a charge of some $h0. (per programme)." TABLE 6-2 THE INTER-INDUSTRY FLOW OF GOODS AND SERVICES, CANADA, 19*+9 (Producer's prices in millions of dollars) -Table as shown i s not complete-No. L 5 1+8 k 9 51 For the disposition of output of an industry, read the row for that i n -dustry; for the origin of input into an industry, read the column for that industry. 0 u zs •P r H D CJ • H U tto <5 bD<xi C q >> U -p to CD u o f=4 W) W) c CJ C J - H • r l i H ft X ! P ft to q co •H 3 H &H J 3 P •H q •H a CO bO tuO q q •H - H r H -P q CO r H - H -P CD CM CD 3 0) CD r H -P CO «H q T3 o q CO CD rH ft CD M OH CD CD a -o a q to CO CO CD q o O T3 r> ° *H q o © o bo co 1 •H CO CD >> W) J3 q ft CO CD O a CO CO > o o -p q CD > q o • q .to CO to. o tj ft b" JK Q to CD CJ •H > rH CD CO • H O q co q •H P-4 -P 3 r H ft CO P -P 3 O O P 1. Agriculture 2. Forestry 3 . Fishing, hunting, trapping k. Metal mining and smelting and re-fining kh. Imports of goods and services *+8. Wages, salaries . . . 51. Capital consumption allowance 53. Total input 5*+. Total input excluding intra-industry consumption 75.2 5 .5 O.k 26.1 0 . 5 1 3 L 199 183 18 2,*+02 *+32 2,327 k 3 2 1.0 1.8 17 18 118 117 0 . 2 7 k 5 7 11 67k 582 51 L 5 5 k 3 33 L 5 . 5 206 52 6¥+ 10,923 3,938 6*+i+ .73 -32 1,260 26 56 lh 557 -13 1,195 L 9 20,156 -continued-TABLE 6-2—Continued Source: This table i s an excerpt from Table 1, "The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services, Canada, 19^9" as shown in D. B. S. publication no. 13-513, occasional, Supplement to The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services Canada, 19^9 (Ottawa: Queen's Printer, I960). Note: The table shows the dollar accounts for a l l industries in Canada by output (given along the rows) and input (given down the column) for each major industry group with every other group and including balance sheet items such as exports; imports; inventory change; and wages and salaries. For example: agricultural produce of some form was needed i n the agricultural industry i t s e l f , the forest industry, the metal mining industry, and so forth including personal expenditures of 7^5 million (in row k5). To produce these amounts, the agricultural industry had the inputs of column 1, which shows an inward consumption of i t s own produce of 75«2 million. Also, i t required inputs of O.k million from the forest industry but nothing was required from fishing or metal mining, etc. Wages and salaries for this amount of production were 131* million and i t required a capital input of 183 million (plus others not shown) for a total input of 2,k02 millions of dollars. TABLE 6-3 INPUT. INTO EACH INDUSTRY PER DOLLAR OF OUTPUT,a CANADA, 19^ ,9 (Producer's prices in dollars) -Table as shown i s not complete- : No. 1 ' 2 - 3 1+ • 38 For the origin of input into an i n -dustry read the column for that . industry. Agricul-ture Forestry Fishing, hunting, and trapping Metal mining, smelting, • • • Transport-ation, Storage, Trade 1. Agriculture _ .012726 .000311 .000677 2. Forestry .000172 3 . Fishing, hunting, trapping k. Metal mining, smelting . . . 18. Rubber products .007305 .000231 - .001865 .002989 19. Textile products . o c W+i .003933 .030822 .000932 .001261 28. Iron and steel products .013965 .031001+ . 001+281 .017091 . 001+1+83 hh. Imports of goods and services .011215 .001157 .015^11 .070696 .025823 h8. Wages and salaries .057792 .1+60898 .11+2123 .320696 .1+301+69 51. Capital consumption allowances .078761 .0^+1185 . 1 5 W 6 .080019 .062129 5h. Total input exclud-ing intra-industry consumption 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 -continued-TABLE 6-3~Continued Source: This table i s an excerpt from Table 2, "The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services, Canada, 19L9," D. B. S. publication no. 13-513, occasional, Supplement to The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services. Canada. 19k9 (Ottawa: Queen's Printer, I960). aIn this table, total output of an industry i s defined so as to exclude output consumed within the same industry. Note: This table has been derived from the preceding table of "Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services, Canada, 19^9" where these tabulated figures are that portion of the total inputs for 'the column industries' required from the 'row industries;' i.e., of the total input (1.000000) into Forestry, Agriculture provides the portion of .012726 or a l i t t l e more than one per cent of the inputs into that industry. 80 are i n t e r - r e l a t e d and which must be solved simultaneously. The labor involved i n the solution of the equations can be reduced by using the notion of matrix which i s expressed by 2 Schwerdtfeger as follows: . . . the system a l l x l ~ * * * a l n x n = ^1 a 2 1 X l " **• a 2 n x n = b 2 ( 3 ) looks rather 3 „ i X n — . . . a x_ •— b_ ml 1 mn n n clumsy and even the abbreviated form ( 3')£a mx v = b m ( u - 1 m) offers only a reduction i n w r i t i n g . Evidently the system consists of separate parts which are comprehended by the following three •'matrices," * * * a l n *» b = V • * x = "x l " «• < aml amn b m x n ( 3 M ) Ax b which i n fa c t reproduces the ess e n t i a l elements of ( 3 ) or ( 3 1 ) when the above notations are assumed. This re-presentation i s c e r t a i n l y the shortest which can be imagined; moreover we s h a l l introduce l a t e r on the d e f i n i t i o n of matrix m u l t i p l i c a t i o n so that the l e f t -hand member of ( 3 ' ' ) not only appears as a symbolic form, but actually describes the algebraic operation represented by the left-hand members of the equations ( 3 ) . As can be seen from the above quotation, the concept of matrix, with subsequent developments, enables the s i m p l i f i -cation of the computation required i n resolving a multitude of Hans Schwerdtf,eger, Introduction to Linear Albegra  and the Theory of Matrices (Groningen, Holland: P. Noordhoff N. v., 1 9 5 0 ) , p. 9 . 81 simultaneous equations. The tabular form of the input-output table arrays the data i n matrix form to which the theory of matricies may be applied. The outcome of the mathematical solution i s shown, in our example, as Table 6-k. This table shows that a stimulation i n agricultural output of $100 w i l l produce a 'feed-back' so a total output of $ 1 0 3 . 3 3 i s reached. The benefit to other industries i s seen by scanning column one where forestry output rose by 3 0 0 , iron and steel products by 2 0 ^ , metal mining by 80 and so on. Assuming that the stimulated output of agricultural was in export markets, this would require a direct import of 16.0*+ as shown in column one, row kk. TABLE 6-1+ TOTAL OUTPUTx OF EACH INDUSTRY AND TOTAL PRIMARY INPUT RESULTING FROM THE PRODUCTION OF A DOLLAR'S WORTH OF FINAL OUTPUT OF AN INDUSTRY, CANADA, 1 9 L 9 2 No. 38 For the total output a of each industry and CD U tuO o •H the primary input re- • G •H - P CO sulting from the pro- a • C •r-l 4-5 e . duction of a dollar's H U bO n a O worth of f i n a l output O -P CO •H H • ft CO of an industry read •H f-i CD f_, Xi CO CO p • a CO the column, of that tuO o •H CD industry. "=9} & 4 fx* s • EH A. 1. 2. 2: 18. 20. 28. B. kk. kQ. 51. TOTAL OUTPUT PER INDUSTRY FROM THE PRODUCTION OF A DOLLAR'S WORTH OF FINAL OUTPUT Agriculture Forestry Fishing . . . Metal mining . . Rubber products Textile products Iron and steel 1.033265 .003059 .000301 .000816 . 0081+1+6 .007538 .020233 TOTAL PRIMARY AND UNALLOCATED INPUT . 013l0H-1.001305 .000002 . 001*+21 .000913 .OOH-322 .03H-266 Imports, goods and services Wages, salaries . . . Capital consumption allowance Total primary and un-allocated input . 0601+30 .166288 .103931 . 998^ +63 .031587 .515387 .051056 .9989I+6 . 0 0 0 7 L L .003199 1.000000 .00050*+ .000931 .031 k 35 .007709 ,061397 ,210961 ,168810 .998950 .002251 .005292 .000008 1.001166 .00261+9 . 0 0 1 7 L k .02181+8 . 09821+1 A10718 .101655 .998718 .002090 .005961 .000016 .001312 .003933 .002850 .012319 .051399 .525780 .082623 .999979 -continued-TABLE 6-k~Continued Source: This data has been taken from Table 3 i n the Dominion Bureau of Statistics supplement to Paper 7 2 , "The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services, Canada, 19*+9 (Ottawa: Queen's Printer, i 9 6 0 ) . •*"The total output of an industry i s defined by the D. B. S. so as to exclude the output consumed within the same industry. This table reproduces only a portion of Table 3 and hence i s not complete. A P P E N D I X I I I U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia February/.larch 62 F a c u l t y of Graduate Studies Community and Regional Planning Manufacturing Industry Land Study Petroleum R e f i n i n g Questionnaire; C o n f i d e n t i a l Data t o be used only as an Industry group study Datej March 7th, 1962 _ Firm Name ,' c - V - 1 " V . v . . . " '" '"' •* Data requested by Roy H. F l e t c h e r Data Requested f o r f o l l o w i n g Years 1961 19£LHS^ 19iil 1) R e f i n e r y Throughput f o r year-(based on in t a k e of crude and s e m i - f i n i s h e d or f i n i s h e d . . , product) b b l s . ' 4,750,000 * 1,830,000 1,351,000 \t 2) Employment during year- 1 F ^ c a. i n man days o'nsite-__b..„in man days o f f s i t e -c. mean number employed during year on & o f f s i t e -3) Land Requirements i n I n d u s t r i a l Zone a. Acres of Company l a n d i n I n d u s t r i a l Zones ; i . o n s i t e -i i . o f f s i t e -47,000 ^ • 25.000 21.000 188 • 100 75 139 51___ 45 b. Acres of l a n d i n a c t i v e use* 1. o n s i t e -i i . o f f s i t e -77 46 40 * A c t i v e use i n c l u d e s ; process areas, tank farms, o f f i c e s , f i l l stands, b l e n d i n g &. packaging p l a n t s , r a i l spurs, road-ways, maintenance' areas •// Employees working i n the i n d u s t r i a l zone only and i n c l u d e s workers at r e g i n e r y , workers a t o f f s i t e storage area and workers a t o f f s i t e f i l l , stands which are i n I n d u s t r i a l Zones.( Lake C i t y Tank Farm f o r example)' 8lt APPENDIX IV AN ESTIMATE OF 1980 THROUGHPUT FROM THE LOWER MAINLAND REFINERIES (B. C.) 1 Introduction This estimate of I98O throughput from the Lower Mainland Refineries has been prepared to assist i n the forecast of land required by this industry group up to 1 9 8 0 . It con-siders petroleum as one of several competing sources of energy in the Province and endeavors to select the determining characteristics of petroleum that give i t market advantage. The probable demand for energy with these particular attributes i s then estimated and from this forecast total throughput of the refineries i s made. B. C. Consumption of Major Forms of Energy 1 9 k l - 1 9 6 l - 1 9 8 0 Since 1 9 k l the annual consumption of energy in the province has more than doubled. During 1961 an estimated 8,k02 tons (coal equivalent) of energy were consumed while in 1Intuitive judgements in this estimate are based on the author*s six years 1 experience as a refinery engineer. 85 86 19*+1 3>717 tons were used. The major forms of energy used in this period comprised petroleum, e l e c t r i c i t y , gas, coal and wood. While the same forms of energy are used today a drastic change exists in the respective contributions each makes to the total energy consumption. Fig. 3 illustrates those changes in consumption for the major fuels since 19^1. There has been a substantial increase i n the use of petroleum, e l e c t r i c i t y , and natural gas which have substituted for coal and wood. Two significant reasons for this substitution have been the far greater u t i l i t y of petroleum, e l e c t r i c i t y , and gas over that of coal and wood, and the improved availability of these substitute energy sources. E l e c t r i c i t y has found exceptional u t i l i t y i n the home and today i t has great use for lighting and appliances such as ironers, toasters, refrigerators, furnace motors and so on where other forms of energy are less suitable. It also offers u t i l i t y i n the industrial f i e l d where the electric drive motor has tended to replace the steam engine and stationary o i l engine as prime movers. When there has been an abundance of inexpensive electric power, such as at Kitimat, i t has been used i n ore refining processes for reducing aluminum, copper, and iron. The supply of electric power at less than five mills, or today 1s competitive rate for electric energy, i s in excess of 2See Fig. 3 87 c © ^ 8 600 cr «> o o o « 6 000 CO 1 ? I o o 4 000 e ; 3 . . . . . . 00 c S 2 000 >» a i u © - j c o 0 ^ * - ' • ^  * -Wood * • • . . G O 9 , 1941 1951 Y e a r 1961 F i g . 3 C H A N G E IN T H E C O N S U M P T I O N O F M A J O R F O R M S O F E N E R G Y , B . C . S E L E C T E D Y E A R S I94I.I95I.I96I S o u r c e - J . Day is , Canad ian Eneray P r o s p e c t s , ' R o y a l Commission'Report 0 1957 C a n a d a , c e n t r a l E l e c t r i c S t a t i o n s , " - E l e c t r i c Power S t a t i s t i c s , ment hi y ' " Prel iminary Report on coa l and C o k e S t a t i s t i c s , 1951 cool and Coke S t a t i s t i c s , 1961 ' " Refined Petroleum P r o d u c t s , m o n t h l y notei some s t a t i s t i c s include both B.C. 6. Y u k o n ; ; 1951 plot ted values use I95"3 data for g a s , w o o d , a petroleum,. 88 the expected demand up to 1980.J Thus this source of energy appears sufficient to encourage more consumers to take advantage of i t s greater u t i l i t y . It might be expected by 1980 that el e c t r i c i t y provides a greater portion of the total energy consumed. Natural gas has offered i t s greatest u t i l i t y in the heating of buildings and in f i r i n g industrial type furnaces. In the home the gas offers the least cost heating installation with a minimum cost of operation and maintenance and hence the majority of new heating installations i n those areas served by natural gas are gas f i r e d units. Since the introduction of natural gas i s recent, 1956 when the B. C. E. converted, the f u l l impact of this fuel has yet to be f e l t . Natural gas supply i s far in excess of current demand and Westcoast transmission Co. has license to export 51 million cubic feet annually until k 1981. During the f i r s t f u l l year of operations, 1958? they transported 90 b i l l i o n cubic feet of gas. With a favourable gas supply i t i s l i k e l y that natural gas w i l l be the major source of heating energy by 1980. -^ The estimated supply of prime hydroelectric power in B. C. i s 22.5 million kw of which 2.7 has been developed. According to J. Davis in Power Benefits and Costs i n Br i t i s h  Columbia, the additional generating demand by I98O w i l l be 5.2 million kw for a total of 7.9 million kw. Thus places the expected demand equal to about one-third the supply. Canada, Department of Mines and Technical Surveys, "Survey of the Natural Gas Industry in Canada 1957-1959," Mineral Information Bulletin ,MR 39 (Ottawa: Queen's Printer I960). 89 Petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and other motor fuels have offered the greatest u t i l i t y as energy sources for mobile equipment and vehicles. Today the greatest single use for petroleum i s i n motor gasoline which amounted to 29 per cent of B. C.'s total refinery production. In 19*+1 less then one and one-half million barrels of motor gasoline were refined and this increased to over three million by 1952 which more than trebled by 196l to 10 million barrels. Diesel fuel consumption while negligible prior to the dieselization of the railways in the early 1956fs rose rapidly to nearly four million barrels in 1961, as shown in Fig. k . Increases i n consumption of other products also took place i n the two decades since lyhl and especially in the last decade. The major increases were in light fuel o i l s and in the stove oil-kerosene group. Principal uses for these products have been for heating of buildings and for domestic cooking. Since 1951 the consumption of heating o i l s increased fivefold and generally as a result of the greater u t i l i t y offered by automatic o i l heat. The relative decline in refinery production of heavy fuel o i l reflects the changing rate of conversion of crude o i l into i t s component parts so a greater proportion of gasoline can be produced. It also reflects the increased demand for different products such as light fuel o i l s and diesel. These curves show refinery output and not total B. C. consumption. In 1961 the refinery output of heavy fuels was less than 90 gasoline other heavy fuel ~ I0.00C-a (I >> 1941 'DIVISION OF THE BARREL' gasoline other diesel light fuel heavy fuel 1851 gasoline other diesel light fuel heavy fuel Y e a r 19 61 F i g . 4 PRODUCTION OF SALEABLE PRODUCTS B.C. & YUKON REFINERIES Source -D.BS. Ref ined Petroleum Products monthly, 1961 " Refined Petroleum Products annual, 1951.1952 " Monthly Report on Refined Petroleum Products in Canada 1946 " Petroleum Products industry in Canada 1941 91 provincial consumption by over two and one-half million barrels and the difference was imported.' The supply of petroleum crude o i l appears sufficient to expect a continuation of the favourable position in the energy market held by this fuel. The i960 world production of crude o i l approached twenty-two b i l l i o n barrels and Canada produced 2.5 per cent of this total for over one-half million barrels per day. World reserves in i960 were more than three hundred b i l l i o n barrels and they increased from two hundred b i l l i o n barrels in 1956. Thus at present rate of use there i s nearly fifteen years proven supply. The greatest u t i l i t y and competitive advantage of petroleum l i e s in the mobile equipment and vehicle fuel market. It can be expected that this market w i l l continue to consume a greater proportion of refined petroleum products. Generally, the use of o i l as heating energy w i l l be substituted by natural gas particularly in urban areas or locations of large heating load which justify provision of a pipeline network to supply natural gas. The two important 'mobile1 fuels, by quantity, are motor gasoline and diesel fuel. Others that are equally important but not used i n large quantity are the aircraft motor and turbine fuels. ^Canada, Refined Petroleum Products Monthly. 1961. ^Canada, Department of Mines and Technical Surveys,"A Survey of the Petroleum Industry in Canada i n i960," and John Davis, "Canadian Energy Prospects," Report of Royal Commission  on Canada's Economic Prospects, 1957* 92 In the future, as in the past, there probably w i l l be different types of petroleum fuels such as those required to supply the expected turbine engines for trucks, automobiles and perhaps ultimately the railways. The inaugural use for these turbine drives would possibly occur not in automobiles but i n the larger power units of trucks or locomotives. Thus i t i s unlikely before 1980 that the consumption trends of motor gasoline would alter radically even though there might be change in the use of diesel fuels. In any event, the total consumption of future 'mobile1 fuels can be estimated on the basis of today's trends in current combined mobile fuels of diesel and motor gasoline. The Mature of Petroleum Refining Petroleum crude o i l i s a mixture of simple and complex hydrocarbon molecules ranging from the gaseous state through the liquid phase and into the solid state. The composition and mixture of these different molecules w i l l vary between o i l field s but w i l l generally consist of four main groups called paraffins, naphtenes, olefins and aromatics. Commercial products are made from these groups by selective separation such as d i s t i l l a t i o n , and by subsequent conversion processes.' These later operations actually convert or change the structure of the molecule into a different form say by making gasoline from guel o i l molecules. Upon completion of the separation and 'Shell International Petroleum Company Limited, "The Petroleum Handbook," kth ed. (London, 1959). 93 conversion processes, the finished products are treated to remove undesirable impurities after which they are ready for market storage. The hazardous nature of petroleum products makes them unsuitable for prolonged storage and a l l components of the crude o i l must be marketed. The ab i l i t y to convert one type molecule into another greatly f a c i l i t a t e s the marketing of the entire contents of the crude barrel but there are definite limits to the degree of conversion. The f a c i l i t y for conversion has been greatly improved over the last two decades as suggested by Fig. k . In 1 9 L 1 about 27 per cent of the 'crude barrel' was recovered as motor gasolines. This portion increased to 35 per cent in 1 9 L 6 and by 1952 i t was 39 per cent. With greater emphasis in the future on the 'mobile fuels' there w i l l be additional need for higher conversion rates i n both the gasolines and the diesel-type fuels. As shown i n Table 6 -1 the conversion rate of diesel between 1955 and i 9 6 0 stayed f a i r l y uniform at about 1^ per cent, while the production of motor gasoline altered between 30 and 36 per cent. With future advances in petroleum processes i t can be expected that the process conversion rates for both diesel and motor gasoline can be improved by 1 9 8 0 . For estimate purposes i t w i l l be assumed that the apparent conversion rate of motor gasoline w i l l increase to k2 per cent by 1980 and that i n the same time there i s l i k e l y to be an increase in the apparent diesel fuel conversion rate so i t reaches 18 per cent. 9k TABLE 6-1 CONSUMPTION OF LIQUID PETROLEUM FUELS AS PER CENT OF TOTAL FOR B. C. AND YUKON 1955-1960 Fuel 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I 9 6 0 Aviation gasoline , 1.5 l.i+ 1 . 3 1.7 1 .6 1.5 Aviation turbine .3 .5 .5 .9 .8 1 .1 Motor gasoline 29.8 3 0 . 2 27.6 37.1 35.3 36A Diesel 13.8 ll+.l 2 7 . 6 1J+.1+ lk.6 11+.5 Kerosene, stove o i l , tractor 10.8 1 0 . 2 7 .2 8.1 8.k 8 Furnace o i l , no. 2 and light no. 3 12.8 1 1 . 1 1 1 . k 1 3 . 6 15.1 15.3 Heavy fuel no. k, no. 5j no. 6 31 32.5 2k.k 2k. 2 2k. 2 23.2 Total 100$ 100$ 100% 100$ 100% 100$ Total consumption (millions of barrels) 2 2 . 0 25A 29.9 23.7 25.3 2 6 . 0 Source: Canada, Department of Mines, op. c i t . Data derived from Table 38. 95 The estimated 1980 refinery throughput w i l l be based on these two conversion rates as being co-determining factors in the amount of crude o i l to be processed. The greater of the two individual product estimates, motor gasoline and diesel fuel, w i l l determine the total throughput. This assumes that the balance of the crude w i l l be able to satisfy the market economically for a l l other products. The others would include aircraft fuels, heating and illuminating o i l s , asphalt produc-tion, naphtha specialties including dry cleaning f l u i d s , liquid petroleum gases, lubricating o i l s , and petrochemical feed stocks. B. C. Estimated Consumption and Refinery Throughput of Diesel Fuel and Motor Gasoline Motor gasoline Motor gasolines are consumed by a great number of individual purchasers for personal automobile transportation. These buyers consume by far the greatest amount of a l l motor gasolines and therefore future consumption can be estimated by viewing l i k e l y changes i n the number of these consumers and i n the probable changes i n the amount they buy. Transportation studies i n metropolitan areas of the U. S. forecast a 20 per cent increase in the number of trips per capita between 1959 o and 198O. They also forecast, in smaller metropolitan areas, Wilbur Smith and Associates, "Nashville Metropolitan Area Transportation Study," vol. 1 (New Haven, Tennessee, Department of Highways, 1961) . 96 that the increased number of trips w i l l be made mostly by automobile with only a slight increase i n per capita use of public transit vehicles. By 1980 i t i s l i k e l y that B. C. and i t s metropolitan areas w i l l be s t i l l auto-dominant so that-a 20 per cent increase in person trips can be expected to occur in the private automobile. If we assume that the mean length of the future trip i s the same as at present, the estimated consumption of motor gasoline w i l l increase by the expected increase i n popula-tion as well as by the additional 20 per cent increase in per capita trips. The B. C. Research Council population forecast for B. C. i n 1975 i s 2 . 7 million persons. By projecting their expected trend to 1980 a population of 3»5 million persons might be expected i n B. C. At present the B. C. estimated population i s nearly 1 .6 million. Applying these values to the present annual consumption of motor gasoline, 9*7 million barrels, an estimated consumption i n 1980 of 2 0 . 2 million barrels can be expected. With an assumed apparent conversion rate of k2 per cent for motor gasolines, the estimated B. C. refinery throughput could reach k 8 . 3 million barrels by 1 9 8 0 . Diesel fuel Diesel fuel markets differ from the motor gasolines since there are fewer purchasers. The major buyers of diesel 97 are the railroad companies and, i n lesser degree, the freight trucking companies. In this case there i s more opportunity for a contract purchase with greater certainty of price, quality, and quantity. In B. C. the principal commodity moved by the railways i s the prairie grain moving to the Pacific ports for export. Using this shipment as a measure, the estimated future consump-tion of a l l diesel fuels w i l l be based on the l i k e l y changes i n grain export from the Pacific ports. Grain movements in Canada are made under the direct control of the Board of Grain Commissioners. By adjusting la i d down prices at the port and effectively controlling railway shipping costs, the Board can use the port handling f a c i l i t i e s at each port to best advantage, kt present about 37 per cent of total Canadian grain exports are handled at Pacific ports.^ With increasing trade between Canada and the Orient this percentage could increase up to kl per cent of the total exported. With the current world population increasing together with a continuing industrialization of the less-developed countries there can be expected an increased export of Canadian grain. Assuming a mean annual increase of 2 per cent i n exports, the estimated grain shipments i n 1980 could be some kO per cent greater than present. 7Canada, Board of Grain Commissioners for Canada, Canadian Grain Exports Crop Year 1958 -59 (Ottawa: Queen's Printer, 1 9 5 9 ) . 98 Applying this increase to the present consumption of diesel fuels, an expected consumption i n 1980 of six million barrels could be reached. This would be equivalent to 33 million barrels of refinery crude throughput using the apparent conversion rate of 18 per cent or kh million barrels i f the current Ik per cent conversion rate were used. The above estimate of diesel fuel assumes that the determining part of the total consumption i s that used in transporting grains on the railway. It also assumes that the total diesel uses w i l l be proportional to the change i n grain shipments. B. C. 1980 probable refinery throughput The previous sections have considered the l i k e l y amounts of motor fuel, gasoline and diesel, which w i l l be consumed in B. C. by I 9 8 O . The estimates have been based on data for provincial consumption i n 1 9 6 1 . This also can be construed to be provincial refinery production since at the same time there were no imports of these products. Of the two estimates, that for the processing of motor gasolines i s the greater. Thus the expected refinery processing of crude o i l would reach h8 million barrels or over 1 . 8 times the B. C. throughput i n 1 9 6 1 . 99 Competitive Position of Lower Mainland Refineries World markets The refineries i n the Lower Mainland are located with access to deep sea tanker shipping and thus are i n a favourable physical position to supply a l l foreign markets with finished products. However whenever export markets consume a variety of products i t i s more economic to ship crude o i l for processing at the market center. In the case where large quantities of only one type product i s required, there i s an opportunity for trade. An example of this would be i n the supplying of aviation fuels to an outpost a i r f i e l d . However the size of the Pacific petroleum product market i s considerably greater in the U. S. than in Canada and i t would be less d i f f i c u l t for U. S. refiners to find an economic market for the unconverted portion of the 'crude barrel' l e f t from producing this specialty product. It can be expected in the future that there w i l l be export quantities of specialty products and perhaps more so in the aircraft fuels but the total amount of these exports i s unlikely to be determinant in the total amount of crude o i l processed. Domestic markets The estimated total B. G. refinery throughput has been made for the domestic market available to the B. C. refiners. Location has an important part in the amount processed by any refinery and the more favourable site i s one located near the 100 market which reduces transport costs. Also, nearness to individual product markets i s another advantage so that transport costs for a l l products w i l l be minimized. In B. C. the market for motor gasoline i s predominantly in the Lower Mainland Region and i t i s unlikely that a radical change w i l l occur i n the settlement pattern over the next twenty years. However, with completion of the Peace River Project, there can be expected a great increase i n northern settlement comparable with the rate of growth of Edmonton i n Alberta. The construction of the power project and the subsequent building of urban and industrial settlements w i l l consume a large amount of motor gasolines. The market for diesel fuels w i l l follow the route of the railways and, to lesser degree, the highways. At present the bulk of the r a i l shipments are near the southern border of the province but following increased mineral activity in the Peace River area and the working of the Pine Point deposits, additional r a i l shipments w i l l occur in the central and northern parts of the province. With increased markets for both diesel and motor gasoline i n the northern part of the province there Mill be a reduction in the share of total B. C. throughput refined in the Lower Mainland. The refinery at Kamloops might be expected to have a considerably increased share of the total as a result of i t s nearness to the railways, i t s proximity to the new trans-Canada highway, and i t s intermediate position between the southern 101 and northern markets. It also i s favourably located for supply of crude oi l s via the Trans Mountain Pipeline System and the proposed extension of the B. C. Peace River pipeline. The two northern refineries, at Taylor and Dawson Creek, are i n a favourable position for supplying the increase i n northern markets. Also they are close to the supply of crude o i l in northeastern B. C. and are connected to i t by the Trans Prairie Pipeline Co. system. The Taylor plant i s an absorption gas plant which removes liquid petroleum products from the natural gas before i t enters the Westcoast Transmission Co. system for shipment to southern markets. Thus, this area i s served by refineries with an exceptionally high motor gasoline conversion rate from the enriched crude o i l . The capacity of these two refineries i s about 5000 barrels per day and in 196l the Trans-Prairie Pipeline carried 3000 barrels per day.x(^ The Westcoast Transmission line carried a gas flow in the order of 90 b i l l i o n cubic feet during 1958. The export license for the line i s i n the order of 50 b i l l i o n cubic feet and possibly this constituted the major portion of the total 1958 flow of gas in the line. Gas consumption i n the B. C. E. distribution system reached close to Ik b i l l i o n feet in 1959 where less than lh per cent of the residential buildings used this fuel for heating. As the percentage of residences with Canada, Department of Mines, "A Survey of the Petroleum Industry in Canada i n i960." . 102 gas heat increases and as population increases, the domestic flow of gas by 1980 could increase tenfold. Including exports the gas handled in the line could double by 1980. The effect of this on the northern refineries would be to double their production of both motor gasolines and diesel fuels with a very high yield of gasolines. It i s possible that the northern refineries w i l l provide ample motor gasolines for the local market but with a conversion favouring gasolines there w i l l be a tendency for under-production for the northern diesel market. Thus i t can be expected that a d e f i c i t i n diesel supply i n the northern area would be met by either Alberta Refineries or by the Southern B. C. refineries. It i s unlikely that the Kamloops refinery would be able to make up the d e f i c i t since, presumably i t s greatest demand would be for diesel fuels to supply the three railways and also minor amount to provide for an expected increased diesel market on the new Trans-Canada Highway. As the central and northern parts of the B. C. and Alberta areas become settled they w i l l create a greater market for motor gasolines which w i l l permit more diesel fuel production from the central and northern refineries. This w i l l result in the Lower Mainland refineries producing a smaller portion of the total B. C. refinery throughput. In 1961 about 87 per cent of the total throughput was refined i n the Lower Mainland. It i s probable that by 1980 this percentage w i l l decline to 85 per cent of the total B. C. throughput. 103 1980 Throughput i n Lower Mainland Refineries Total energy consumption in B. C. has more than doubled in the last two decades and the lion's share of the increase has gone to products of petroleum. Generally speaking, petroleum has substituted for coal and wood as energy sources which has resulted i n a five-fold increase i n i t s consumption since lykl. During the next two decades i t i s l i k e l y that natural gas and elec t r i c i t y w i l l substitute for many of the present petroleum uses where they are more economic and offer a greater u t i l i t y . Petroleum products have changed radically over the past twenty years going from a dominant heavy fuel market to a predominantly motor fuel market. This change has followed the advantages and greater u t i l i t y of petroleum as a fuel for mobile vehicles and equipment. This u t i l i t y as a 'mobile' fuel i s expected to be the greatest advantage of petroleum during the next two decades. While the character of the 'mobile' fuels may change to suit the impending gas turbine drives, i t i s l i k e l y that they w i l l s t i l l be served best by petroleum fuels. This advantage w i l l tend to increase the conversion rate of the mobile fuels from the present apparent 6 0 per cent rate to about 75 per cent. This estimate assumes that the forecast of 'mobile* fuel demand can be made on the basis of present mobile fuel products and that the determinant product in 1980 w i l l be the equivalent fuel of today's motor gasoline. On this basis a 10W p r o v i n c i a l consumption of motor gasoline equivalent to 50 m i l l i o n barrels of refined crude o i l i s expected by 1980. During 1961 a l i t t l e more than 26 m i l l i o n barrels were run to s t i l l s i n B. C. Competitive advantages of the Lower Mainland Refineries w i l l decline by 2 per cent up to i960 with increased settlement and i n d u s t r i a l development i n the central and northern parts of the province. Thus the Lower Mainland share of the p r o v i n c i a l throughput w i l l be i n the order of 85 per cent. This estimate i s based solely on p r o v i n c i a l domestic markets and i t i s f e l t unlikely that foreign exports of refined petroleum from B. C. w i l l occur on a sustained basis. Therefore by 1980 the Lower Mainland Refineries can be expected to refi n e annually between 35 and 50 m i l l i o n barrels of crude petroleum. 


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