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Evaluation of the effectiveness of the prior acquisition of sites for public use as a technique to guide… Stanley, Thomas Brock 1965

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AN EVALUATION OP THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE PRIOR ACQUISITION OF SITES FOR PUBLIC USE AS A TECHNIQUE TO GUIDE THE PATTERN OF URBAN LAND DEVELOPMENT by THOMAS BROCK STANLEY B.A., (Honours), University of Alberta, 1961 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the Department of COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA April, 1965 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of • B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r reference and study. I f u r t h e r agree that per-m i s s i o n f o r extensive copying of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s understood that copying or p u b l i -c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my w r i t t e n permission* Department of Community and Regional Planning The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver 8 5 Canada Date A p r i l . 1965 i ABSTRACT The problem of comprehensive plan implementation i s essentially one of guiding the many elements of urban land development i n order to achieve a desired pattern of urban growth. To evaluate the potential value of one technique to provide a partial solution to the problem of guiding the pattern of urban land development i t i s hypothesized that the location of sites for public land uses influences the total pattern of urban land use and development and that the prior acquisition of sites for public use, i n relation to a comprehensive community plan, i s therefore an effective technique to guide the pattern of urban land development. A c r i t i c a l review of the available literature constitutes the methodology used to validate the hypo-thesis. This approach was necessitated because of limitations of time and resources; the apparent absence of specific research studies related directly to the hypothesis; the apparent non u t i l i z a t i o n of the tech-nique by municipalities, and hence the absence of data for experimental, s t a t i s t i c a l , and case study analysis; and because of the d i f f i c u l t y of quantitative measure-ment of a l l the variables which would be required to verify the hypothesis. In addition to the review of i i the literature a proposed methodology i s developed whereby the hypothesis may be tested. The f i r s t part of the review of the literature i s concerned with the influence of public land uses on the pattern of urban land use and development and indicates that a hierarchy of factors exists which influences the pattern of urban land development, and that public land uses, while constituting a segment of this hierarchy, are near the bottom of i t ; that this degree of influence w i l l not only be different i n different c i t i e s but w i l l be different over time i n the same c i t y ; and that the locations of different public land uses do not have the same degree of influence, but where this influence i s significant i t w i l l tend to intensify the pattern of development. The second part of the review of the literature i s concerned with the economic, financial, p o l i t i c a l , and administrative f e a s i b i l i t y of the proposed technique, for the majority of municipal governments and reveals that although this i s an economically viable proposition never-theless the financial, p o l i t i c a l , and administrative aspects are significant obstacles. In addition, i t appears that only a few c i t i e s i n the United States practise advance acquisition, and of these none do so with the purpose of guiding urban growth. The development of the methodology reveals that i i i the hypothesis represents a complex cause and e f f e c t r e l a -t i o n s h i p that can be tested by experimental means using t e s t and con t r o l areas, given the necessary time and resources. The basic l i m i t a t i o n of the t h e s i s i s that i t i s r e s t r i c t e d to a review of the l i t e r a t u r e and i s therefore subject to the p a r t i c u l a r biases and prejudices of the authors whose works are used. There i s also a s c a r c i t y of d e t a i l e d objective data-A l t e r n a t i v e p o t e n t i a l approaches f o r substantiating the hypothesis, given s u f f i c i e n t time and resources, include an ex post facto case study, the use of interviews and questionnaires, and the use of s t a t i s t i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n . I t i s suggested that the a p p l i c a t i o n of the hypothesis to the f i e l d of urban redevelopment represents an a d d i t i o n a l approach whereby i t could be v e r i f i e d . I t i s concluded that f u r t h e r research i s needed i n order to obtain a greater i n s i g h t i n t o , and an understanding of, the complex f u n c t i o n a l i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x i s t i n g between the pattern of urban land development and the f a c t o r s that determine or influence i t . An a d d i t i o n a l area f o r f u r t h e r research i s i n the t e s t i n g of the hypothesis as i t applies to urban redevelopment. The l i m i t a t i o n s and find i n g s r e s u l t i n g from the review of the l i t e r a t u r e lead to the conclusion that the i v hypothesis as formulated cannot be v e r i f i e d on t h i s basis. I t i s nevertheless concluded that i f a municipal govern-ment were to u t i l i z e i t s f u l l range of resources f o r making public p o l i c y decisions then i t would be i n an e f f e c t i v e p o s i t i o n to guide the pattern of urban land development. I t i s f u r t h e r concluded that the implications of the hypo-t h e s i s be applied, by municipal governments, to the f i e l d of urban redevelopment. v i i i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my appreciation to Dr. H. Peter Oberlander, Professor, and Dr. K.J. Cross, Assistant Professor, of the Community and Regional Planning Programme for their suggestions and counsel throughout the preparation of this thesis. I would also like to thank Miss M.J. Dwyer, Librarian, of the Pine Arts Division, University Library, for the assistance she provided during the preparation of this thesis. V TABLE OP CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I. INTRODUCTION 1 The Problem of Plan Implementation, and the Guidance of Urban Development 1 Purpose and Objectives of the Thesis 3 D e f i n i t i o n of Terms 5 Scope, Li m i t a t i o n s , and Organization of the Thesis 8 Statement of the Hypothesis 10 I I . REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE TO EVALUATE THE PRIOR ACQUISITION OF SITES FOR PUBLIC LAND USE AS A TECHNIQUE TO GUIDE URBAN GROWTH 12 The Influence of S i t e s f o r Publ i c Land Use on the Pattern of Urban Land Development and thus of t h e i r P r i o r A c q u i s i t i o n as a Technique to Guide Urban Development ... 13 The Economic and P o l i t i c a l F e a s i b i l i t y of the P r i o r A c q u i s i t i o n of S i t e s f o r Public Land Use 48 I I I . A METHODOLOGY FOR TESTING THE PROPOSED HYPOTHESIS 63 Th e o r e t i c a l Concepts 65 Factors and Variables to be Considered ... 67 Development of the Methodology 69 v i CHAPTER PAGE IV. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 77 Summary 77 Limitations of the Thesis 82 Alte r n a t i v e Approaches and Additional D i r e c t i o n s f o r Further Inv e s t i g a t i o n ... 84 Conclusions 89 Formulation of P o l i c i e s and Recommend-ations Based on the Conclusions 90 BIBLIOGRAPHY 93 APPENDIX 98 v i i LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I. C o e f f i c i e n t s of Simple C o r r e l a t i o n Between 10 Independent Variables and Deviation from Expected Land Development Pattern ... 24-I I . Relative Influence of 10 and 6 Independent Variables on Deviations from Expected Land Development Pattern 25 I I I . Rank Order of Influence of the 10 Inde-pendent Variables on the Pattern of Urban Land Development 26 IV. Rank Order of Influence of 6 of the 10 Independent Variables on the Pattern of Urban Land Development 27 V. Wiley's Rating of Factors Influencing the Location of R e s i d e n t i a l Development 37 VI. Savings Resulting as the Result of School and Park S i t e s Acquired i n Advance of Need 51 VII. Relative Hierarchy of Those Factors I d e n t i f i e d as Influencing the Pattern of Urban Land Development 68 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION I. THE PROBLEM OF PLAN IMPLEMENTATION AND THE GUIDANCE OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT One of the basic urban planning problems i s that of guiding the pattern of urban land use and development i n order to achieve a desired pattern of urban growth i n accordance with the objectives of a comprehensive community plan. This i s the basic problem of plan implementation. The t r a d i t i o n a l land use controls and techniques of zoning and su b d i v i s i o n r e g u l a t i o n have proved inadequate as devices to guide and to achieve a desired pattern of urban growth. "The land use controls of today have been i n e f f e c t i v e as techniques to...carry out a predetermined pattern of land use.""1" As a r e s u l t of t h i s i n e f f e c t i v e n e s s new techniques have been proposed. This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y true with regard to the use of i n d i r e c t controls whereby developers are induced or influenced by forces other than l e g a l regulatory measures. These new techniques are based "'"American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , Planning Advisory Service, New Techniques f o r Shaping Urban  Expansion. Information Report No. 160 (Chicago: American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , J u l y, 1962), p. 2. 2 upon the use of pu b l i c p o l i c y and include guidance of development by f i n a n c i a l i n c e n t i v e s , by co n t r o l through development of p u b l i c f a c i l i t i e s and se r v i c e s , and by l i c e n s i n g or tax assessment p o l i c y . With regard to the use of pu b l i c p o l i c y as a technique to guide urban growth, Chapin i n his a r t i c l e , "Taking Stock of Techniques f o r Shaping Urban Growth", states: The p o t e n t i a l i t i e s of using public p o l i c i e s as instruments f o r guiding expansion have passed v i r t u a l l y unnoticed u n t i l r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t l y . But pu b l i c bodies are beginning to recognize the cumu-l a t i v e impact that consistency of a c t i o n can have i n achieving p a r t i c u l a r goals: planning and transpor-t a t i o n agencies f o r example, are i n c r e a s i n g l y concerned with the impact that various p u b l i c p o l i c i e s may have on the patterns of urban growth. There i s r i s i n g i n t e r e s t i n the e f f e c t that the serv i c e l e v e l p o l i c i e s f o r water and sewage systems, expressway and t r a n s i t systems, and schools and. re c r e a t i o n systems may have on patterns of land development. 2: Research i n t o new t o o l s , techniques, and devices to guide urban growth, and the assessment of the value; and effectiveness of these techniques i s thus a basic planning requirement i n overcoming the above problem. "The Memorandum of Suggestions" prepared by the C i t y of Vancouver Planning Department f o r the Pounding Conference; Report of the Canadian Council on Urban and Regional Research states: P. Stuart Chapin, J r . , "Taking Stock of Techniques f o r Shaping Urban Growth," Journal of the American  I n s t i t u t e of Planners. XXIX, No. 2 (May, 1963), p. 8. 3 Research i s needed on how, by d i r e c t or i n d i r e c t means, the public costs can be more e f f e c t i v e forces i n guiding the form of urban growth instead of following i t as an unfortunate r e s u l t . 3 I I . PURPOSES AND OBJECTIVES OP THE THESIS In keeping with the above consideration the purpose of t h i s t h e s i s i s to evaluate the effectiveness of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of land f o r p u b l i c use, as a technique to guide the pattern of urban land use and development. More s p e c i f i c a l l y an attempt i s made to show that the planned l o c a t i o n of land uses influences the t o t a l pattern of urban land use and development, that i s t h e i r planned-l o c a t i o n tends to act as determinants of the urban land development pattern and therefore shape the form of urban growth; f u r t h e r , an attempt i s made to show that as a. r e s u l t of t h i s influence the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c use, i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan, i s an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide the pattern of urban land development. The objectives of t h i s t h e s i s are thus three f o l d : (1) to evaluate the influence that the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use may have on the pattern of C i t y of Vancouver Planning Department, "A Memor-andum of Suggestions", Founding Conference Report of the  Canadian Council on Urban and Regional Research (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , March, 1962;, p. 32. 4-urban land use and development; (2) to evaluate the p r a c t i c a l aspects of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public use, as a p o l i c y f o r most municipal governments; and (3) to develop a methodology whereby the effectiveness of the technique to guide urban land development by the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use, i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan, can be v a l i d a t e d . E v a l -uation of the f i r s t two objectives i s undertaken by a review of the a v a i l a b l e planning l i t e r a t u r e , while the development of a methodology f o r v e r i f i c a t i o n i s derived from t h i s evaluation. More s p e c i f i c a l l y , an attempt i s made to show that i f a m unicipality acquires by negotiation or expropriation s i t e s f o r c e r t a i n public uses, i n advance of need, and i n accordance with the objectives of a comprehensive community plan then these acquired s i t e s , and eventually the public improvements on them, w i l l bring about the desired pattern of urban land use and development i n the following two ways: 1. The f a c t that p a r t i c u l a r p l o t s of land have been acquired and designated f o r p a r t i c u l a r uses tends i n i t s e l f to f i x parts of the land use pattern of a given area; 2. More important perhaps i s the aspect that these acquired: s i t e s : w i l l act as "key determinants of land development" i n s o f a r as the"primary" d e c i s i o n 5 and action e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e i r l o c a t i o n w i l l i n i t i a t e a series of "secondary" developmental decisions and actions (by land developers, b u i l d e r s , i n s t i t u t i o n s , companies, merchants, etc.) which, preconditioned and influenced by the framework created by the "primary" d e c i s i o n , w i l l produce the desired or intended pattern of land development. In addition an assessment i s to be made of the p o l i t i c a l , administrative, and economic f e a s i b i l i t y of the a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r pu b l i c use i n advance of need. C l e a r l y , i f the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of land i s determined not to be a f e a s i b l e proposition economically and p o l i t i c a l l y f o r most municipal governments, then the technique w i l l be of l i m i t e d value. I I I . DEFINITION OF TERMS In order to proceed, an explanation of the terms used above, and of terms to be used throughout the rest of the th e s i s i s necessary. This i s Chapin's Behavioral Theory of Urban Structure and Form. More at t e n t i o n i s devoted to i t i n Chapter I I of t h i s t h e s i s . Taken from F. Stuart Chapin, J r . , and S h i r l e y F. Weiss, (eds.) Urban Growth Dynamics (New York, London: John Wiley and Sons Inc., 1962), pp. 430-432 and F. Stuart Chapin, Urban Land use Planning (second e d i t i o n ; Urbana: U n i v e r s i t y of I l l i n o i s Press, 1965), pp. 69-99. Public Land Uses In the context of t h i s t h e s i s public land uses r e f e r to those lands and t h e i r improvements that are municipally owned, and maintained. This includes- s t r e e t s and lanes; schools; f i r e h a l l s ; p o l i c e s t a t i o n s ; h o s p i t a l s and health c l i n i c s ; l i b r a r i e s and other c u l t u r a l buildings governmental, j u d i c i a l and other administrative municipal b u i l d i n g s ; r e c r e a t i o n a l areas and public open spaces. Federal and P r o v i n c i a l Government land uses are excluded here. Influence Throughout t h i s t h e s i s the influence of the l o c a t i o n of p u b l i c land uses on the pattern of urban development r e f e r s to the i n f l u e n c e , that decisions and actions to locate c e r t a i n public land uses can have on the l o c a t i o n a l and b u i l d i n g decisions of private builders and developers, and thus on the pattern of land use and development. P r i o r A c q u i s i t i o n P r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n i n t h i s t h e s i s r e f e r s to the outright purchase of land i n "fee simple" by the muni-c i p a l i t y , i n advance of need. Comprehensive Community Plan The d e f i n i t i o n put f o r t h by T.J. Kent regarding the meaning of the term comprehensive community plan i s used throughout t h i s t h e s i s . A comprehensive community plan: 7 i s the o f f i c i a l statement of a municipal l e g i s l a t i v e body which sets f o r t h i t s major p o l i c i e s concerning de s i r a b l e future physical development; the published general-plan document must include a s i n g l e , u n i f i e d general physical design f o r the community, and i t must attempt to c l a r i f y the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between physical-development p o l i c i e s and s o c i a l and economic goals. 5 Technique Chapin's i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the word technique i s used: "Techniques" i s used to r e f e r to means of p r e s c r i -bing, r e g u l a t i n g , or i n other ways i n f l u e n c i n g the course of events i n urban areas so as to produce an intended pattern of land development. 6 Development Development i n t h i s t h e s i s r e f e r s to the outward spread of urban growth from the urban centre as well as the i n t e n s i t y of urban growth within that outward spread. Within t h i s t h e s i s the guidance of the pattern of urban land development also implies the guidance of urban land use. This d e f i n i t i o n of development thus does not imply urban redevelopment. P T . J . Kent, J r . , The Urban General Plan (San Francisco: Chandler Publishing Company, 19640, p. 18. Chapin, "Taking Stock of Techniques f o r Shaping Urban Growth", Journal of the American I n s t i t u t e of  Planners, p. 77. 8 IV. SCOPE, LIMITATIONS, AND ORGANIZATION OF THE THESIS The following f i v e reasons: 1. The l i m i t a t i o n s of time; 2. The l i m i t a t i o n s of resources; 3. The apparent absence of s p e c i f i c research studies r e l a t e d d i r e c t l y to the hypothesis; 4. The d i f f i c u l t y of quantitative measurement of a l l the v a r i a b l e s that would have to be studied and manipulated i n order to v e r i f y the cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p i m p l i c i t i n the hypothesis; 5. The apparent absence of the use of the technique, under study, by m u n i c i p a l i t i e s as a means to guide urban growth and hence the absence of material f o r experimentation, s t a t i s t i c a l and case study an a l y s i s ; necessitated that the methodology used to substantiate the v a l i d i t y of the hypothesis be l i m i t e d to a c r i t i c a l review and evaluation of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e . Chapter I I , containing a review of the l i t e r a t u r e , thus contains the bulk of the evidence marshalled to sub-s t a n t i a t e the v a l i d i t y of the hypothesis. Chapter I I i s divided i n t o two parts: (1) a review of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e concerned with the influence which the l o c a t i o n of p u b l i c land uses has 9 on the pattern of urban land use and development, and with the p o t e n t i a l effectiveness of the technique of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan to guide urban land development; and ( 2 ) a review of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e concerned with the f e a s i b i l i t y of the a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use, i n advance of need, f o r most municipal governments. In ad d i t i o n to a review of the l i t e r a t u r e , each part contains an evaluation of the work of each w r i t e r studied and an assessment of a p p l i c a b i l i t y and implications of that writer's work i n r e l a t i o n to the hypothesis. The review of the l i t e r a t u r e i n part I of Chapter II i s not concerned with evaluating, describing or d i s c u s s i n g the influence of the l o c a t i o n of public land, uses on such aspects as changes i n land values, amenity, access, congestion, etc. on adjacent areas; rather, i t i s s o l e l y concerned! with that influence as discussed p r e v i -ously and as used by Chapin, i . e . , the influence that decisions and actions to locate c e r t a i n public land uses can have on the l o c a t i o n a l and b u i l d i n g decisions of private builders and developers, and thus on the pattern of land use and development. I t i s also not concerned^, with the a p p l i c a t i o n of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n s i t e s f o r public use as a technique to guide the pattern of urban 10 land redevelopment within urban areas. I t i s concerned s o l e l y with guiding urban development i n the newly expanding f r i n g e areas of our c i t i e s . I t s a p p l i c a t i o n to redevelop-ment, however, w i l l be considered i n Chapter IV i n s o f a r as: i t represents an a d d i t i o n a l area f o r v e r i f y i n g and applying the concept of p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of public s i t e s as a technique to guide urban growth. Part II of Chapter I I , the evaluation of the p r a c t i c a l aspects of the p r i o r acqui-s i t i o n of s i t e s , i s l i m i t e d to a general d i s c u s s i o n of f e a s i b i l i t y from the standpoint of most municipal govern-ments. Detailed economic and f i n a n c i a l a n a l ysis of t h i s aspect are beyond the scope of t h i s t h e s i s . Chapter I I I of the t h e s i s i s concerned, with the development of a methodology whereby the effectiveness of the technique to guide urban land development by the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use, i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan, can be v a l i d a t e d . The establishment of t h i s methodology i s necessary, even though i t cannot be tested because of l i m i t a t i o n s of time and resources, i n order to substan-t i a t e that a p r a c t i c a l method can be formulated whereby the hypothesis can be v a l i d a t e d . Chapter IV contains the summary, conclusions, and l i m i t a t i o n s of the t h e s i s , as well as an assessment of the hypothesis i n the l i g h t of these conclusions. This i s followed by a formulation of p o l i c i e s and recommendations based on the conclusions, and by a discussion of a l t e r -native approaches to that taken here, together with suggestions f o r a d d i t i o n a l d i r e c t i o n s f o r research and i n v e s t i g a t i o n . V. STATEMENT OP THE HYPOTHESIS To evaluate the p o t e n t i a l value of one technique to provide a p a r t i a l answer to the problem posed at the beginning of t h i s t h e s i s , that of guiding the pattern of growth, the hypothesis i s proposed that the l o c a t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses influences the t o t a l pattern of urban land use and development and that the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public use, i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan, i s therefore an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide the pattern of urban land development. CHAPTER I I 12 REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE TO EVALUATE THE PRIOR ACQUISITION OF SITES FOR PUBLIC LAND USE AS A TECHNIQUE TO GUIDE URBAN GROWTH The concept of guiding the pattern of urban land use and development by u t i l i z i n g the cumulative impact and repercussions of the l o c a t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land, uses on the pattern of urban land development by means of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n f o r those land uses has u n t i l r e c e n t l y gone unnoticed. Thus the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e i s very l i m i t e d and i n an exploratory stage. Few d e t a i l e d studies have been c a r r i e d out. Thus the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e dealing with the subject so f a r , has been of a p o s i t i v e or neutral nature. Few i f any references appear to have dealt with the negative aspects of the subject or.:-to have repudiated the concept. With the above i n mind an attempt i s made i n this. Chapter to v a l i d a t e the hypothesis by an objective review of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e . This review i s divided i n t o two parts: (1) a review of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e concerned with the influence of the l o c a t i o n of p u b l i c l y owned s i t e s on the pattern of urban land use and development and with the p o t e n t i a l effectiveness of the use of the technique of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use, i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan, to guide urban land development; and (2) a review of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e concerned with the f e a s i b i l i t y of the a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use, i n advance of need, f o r most municipal governments. I. THE INFLUENCE OF SITES FOR PUBLIC LAND USE ON THE PATTERN OF LAND DEVELOPMENT AND THUS OF THEIR PRIOR ACQUISITION AS A TECHNIQUE TO GUIDE URBAN DEVELOPMENT The studies considered below deal s p e c i f i c a l l y with the t o p i c under study i n t h i s t h e s i s . This includes those studies written and undertaken by F.Stuart Chapin, Stanley R. Wiley, M.R. Wolfe, Robert E. Coughlin, and Arthur A. Davis, Nathan Glazer, and Donald H. Webster. A number of studies dealing with s p e c i f i c limited: aspects of the problem have, however, been undertaken. Perhaps the most valuable work, within these, s p e c i f i c studies, has been done by those concerned with i d e n t i -f y i n g those v a r i a b l e s determining land development patterns. The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of these v a r i a b l e s has been r e l a t e d to research concerned with the f o r e c a s t i n g of land use patterns by the use of land use and t r a f f i c models. 1 Alan M. Voorhees, s p e c i a l e d i t o r , "Land Use and! T r a f f i c Models: A Progress Report," Journal of the  American I n s t i t u t e of Planners, s p e c i a l issue, XXV, No. 2 (May, 1959), pp. 55-104-. 14 The various contributions and studies undertaken to date 2 have been l i s t e d and summarized i n the works of Chapin. In addition to the above works a number of broad-general statements regarding the t o p i c were observed i n a r t i c l e s by various authors. This included Haar's statement that: A c q u i s i t i o n can do more than secure s i t e s f o r government functions; public ownership of land, e i t h e r alone or i n conjunction with other forms of land-use c o n t r o l , opens new v i s t a s i n d i r e c t i n g the development of urban land. Exercised at s t r a t e g i c places, and at c r u c i a l times, i t can influence land development f a r beyond the l i m i t s of the property held. 3 The Contribution of F. Stuart Chapin The I n s t i t u t e f o r Research i n S o c i a l Science at the U n i v e r s i t y of North Carolina has undertaken a number of urban research studies under the d i r e c t i o n of F.Stuart Chapin, J r . These studies have been concerned! with i n v e s t i g a t i n g and i d e n t i f y i n g the major f a c t o r s that appear to influence the pattern of urban land development. Chapin's work, dealing with the Piedmont I n d u s t r i a l Crescent provides a theory of land development, a l i s t F. Stuart Chapin, J r . , et. a l . , Land Development  Patterns i n the Piedmont I n d u s t r i a i T r e s c e n t (Chapel H i l l : U n i v e r s i t y of North Carolina, December I960), 79 pp. 3 ^Charles Monroe Haar, Land-Use Planning (Boston, Toronto: L i t t l e Brown and Company, 1959), p. 409. 15 of suggested major f a c t o r s which influence the pattern of land development, and an evaluation of these f a c t o r s i n r e l a t i o n to the theory, i n an attempt to a s c e r t a i n t h e i r r e l a t i v e importancea as priming actions t r i g g e r i n g and 4. i n f l u e n c i n g the t o t a l pattern of urban land development. Chapin's d e c i s i o n theory of land developpent. &. review of Chapin's theory of land development i s e s s e n t i a l to an understanding of the s i g n i f i c a n c e of h i s work and how i t r e l a t e s to the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses as a technique to guide urban land development. Chapin's theory provides the t h e o r e t i c a l concepts upon which t h i s t h e s i s i s based. Chapin v i s u a l i z e s urban areas as c o n s i s t i n g of many a c t i v i t y patterns a r i s i n g out of the day to day i n t e r -a c t i o n of people f u l f i l l i n g t h e i r needs and d e s i r e s . Certain of these a c t i v i t y patterns have s u f f i c i e n t s p a t i a l importance to produce s p a t i a l manifestations i n the: phy s i c a l structure and form of the c i t y . The means by which the above behavior i n t e r a c t i o n patterns become tr a n s l a t e d i n t o s p a t i a l form i s found; i n the l o c a t i o n behavior of households, firms, governments, and i n s t i t u t i o n a l e n t i t i e s . L o c ational behavior i s viewed Chapin, et. a l . , op. c i t . , 79 pp. 16 as a sequence of a c t i o n , growing out of the needs and desires of day to day i n t e r a c t i o n whereby the above agents reach decisions as to the l o c a t i o n of t h e i r respective f a c i l i t i e s . This l o c a t i o n a c t i o n i s thus the d e c i s i o n -a c t i o n mechanism whereby firms etc. locate t h e i r f a c i l i t i e s , i n response to the day to day behaviour pattern of society, i n such a way as to best f u l f i l l t h e i r needs and d e s i r e s . In our society, the marketplace and the. council chambers of government ( l o c a l and frequently non-l o c a l ) provide the means by which l o c a t i o n — s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s and movements (or, more broadly, communi-cations) are t r a n s l a t e d i n t o p l a c e — f i x e d use areas and inter-connecting c i r c u l a t i o n systems i n the metropolitan area. 5 Chapin states that the d e c i s i o n i s the c r i t i c a l element i n a l o c a t i o n action: We may conceive the land-development pattern of a c i t y at any p a r t i c u l a r point i n time as the cumula-t i v e e f f e c t of a myriad of decisions and actions by i n d i v i d u a l e n t i t i e s and groups, c o n s i s t i n g of house-holds, i n s t i t u t i o n s , corporate i n t e r e s t s , and government. These actions stem from deeply embedded i n d i v i d u a l and group-held values some of which assume a degree of concreteness and become manifest i n the; form of s p e c i f i c a t t i t u d e s and behaviours. The a t t i t u d i n a l bases of these actions have been broadly categorized as stemming from p r o f i t making, l i v a b i l i t y , and c u l t u r a l l y rooted values. Looking at the complex r e s u l t , the mass impact on the land of the actions that grow out of these values of many i n d i v i d u a l s and. . groups, we may think of these actions i n two categories what we s h a l l c a l l "priming actions" and "secondary 5 P. Stuart Chapin, J r . , Urban Land Use Planning (second e d i t i o n ; Urbana: U n i v e r s i t y of I l l i n o i s Press, 1965), P. 92. 17 a c t i o n s " . We may conceive of land development as ai consequence of c e r t a i n priming actions which precon-d i t i o n and e s t a b l i s h the broad framework f o r the mass of secondary actions that follow and make up the bulk of the pattern observed. Thus, i f the d e c i s i o n on the l o c a t i o n of major highways may be thought of as: a. priming action, we may think of t h i s i n i t i a l action as t r i g g e r i n g other secondary a c t i o n s — f i r s t a wave of actions by r e a l estate developers, b u i l d e r s , f i n a n c i e r s , and others which then set o f f s t i l l other actions by f a m i l i e s , merchants, churches, and others. Taken together the priming and secondary actions are said to produce the land-development pattern. 6 Chapin thus conceives of c e r t a i n key decisions as priming actions which t r i g g e r other secondary actions and by so doing influence the pattern of urban land develop-ment. I t i s obvious that i f Chapin*s theory i s correct and i f decisions as to the l o c a t i o n of public land uses: could be i d e n t i f i e d as c o n s t i t u t i n g priming actions, by e s t a b l i s h i n g that they do i n f a c t t r i g g e r secondary actions and so determine the pattern of land development around them, then i t could be assumed that the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses, i n r e l a t i o n to a compre-hensive community plan, could be used as a technique to guide urban land development. Factors i n f l u e n c i n g land development. The concep-t u a l system outlined above thus sees land development "as the consequence f i r s t of c e r t a i n s t r a t e g i c decisions which F. Stuart Chapin, J r . , and S h i r l e y F. Weiss, (eds.) Urban Growth Dynamics (New York, London: John Wiley and; Sons, Inc., 1962;, pp. 430-4-31. 18 structure the pattern of growth and development and then the myriad of household, business, and governmental decisions 7 which follow from the f i r s t key d e c i s i o n s . " The emphasis i s thus on determining those kinds of l o c a t i o n a c t i o n that are key f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g land development i n s o f a r as the d e c i s i o n l o c a t i n g them constitutes a priming action and thus i t preconditions and influences the land develop-ment pattern. To a r r i v e at as complete a l i s t as possible of those major priming f a c t o r s of development deemed to t r i g g e r other actions and thus to influence the pattern of development the research team under the d i r e c t i o n of Chapin: 1. L i s t e d the f a c t o r s which from t h e i r experience and observation appeared to them to have some e f f e c t on the pattern of land development. 2. Supplemented t h i s l i s t by reference to general l i t e r a t u r e and to studies dealing with the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of v a r i a b l e s determining land development patterns r e l a t e d to research concerned with the f o r e c a s t i n g of land use patterns by the use of land use and t r a f f i c models. Chapin, op. c i t . , p. 93. 3. This r e s u l t i n g l i s t was then submitted to twelve professional planners and through a s e r i e s of questions they were asked to arrange the items g i n the l i s t i n the order of importance. The above procedure culminated i n the following t e n t a t i v e hierarchy of fac t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the pattern of urban land development: 1. Location of water areas and areas subject to f l o o d . 2. Location of Major Highways. 3 . Location of Major Work Areas. 4. Location of C i t y ' s Water Supply Area. 5. Location of C i t y ' s Sewer Service Area. 6. Location of C i t y ' s F i r e Protection Service Area. 7. Location of C i t y ' s P o l i c e Service Area. 8. Location of C i t y ' s School Service Area. 9. Location of C i t y ' s Zoning J u r i s d i c t i o n . 10. Location of C i t y ' s Subdivision Control J u r i s d i c t i o n . 11. Location of Areas of Mixed Land Use. 12. Location of Blighted R e s i d e n t i a l Areas. 13- Location of Q Nonwhite Areas. Of p a r t i c u l a r note with regard to the above suggested hierarchy of tentative f a c t o r s c o n s t i t u t i n g priming actions i s the f a c t that out of a l l the public Chapin, et. a l . , op. c i t . , p. 41. 'ibid., p. 43. 20 land uses found i n most m u n i c i p a l i t i e s only four were considered i n i t i a l l y important enough to be considered as c o n s t i t u t i n g priming actions. Having t e n t a t i v e l y l i s t e d the possible f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the pattern of land development the next step was to measure the r e l a t i v e influence of each f a c t o r i n i s o l a t i o n and i n combination with one another to determine i f the d e c i s i o n as to t h e i r l o c a t i o n influenced the pattern of land development s i g n i f i c a n t l y enough to substantiate i t as a priming a c t i o n . Testing the suggested f a c t o r s . To t e s t the r e l a -t i v e importance of each of the above f a c t o r s , suggested as i n f l u e n c i n g the t o t a l pattern of land development, Chapin formulated the following s p e c i f i c propositions, the sum of which constitute h i s main hypothesis: 1. Land development can be measured i n r e l a t i o n to a mathematically defined d i s t r i b u t i o n around the peak-value corner i n the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t . 2. P hysical c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t e r r a i n and drainage w i l l exert an influence on patterns of land development. This influence w i l l be stronger i n the f r i n g e areas of the c i t y that are i n the. e a r l y stages of development than i n the e a r l i e r developed c e n t r a l areas where most of the once bypassed, expensive-to-develop parcels have been pressed i n t o use. 3. The l o c a t i o n of major routes of transportation tends to influence the d i r e c t i o n and pattern of land: development. In general, a p a r t i c u l a r highway network tends to promote the development of adjacent land which i s made accessible to the urban area by the construction of these highways. 4. I n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n s tend to influence the d i r e c t i o n and pattern of land development. The l o c a t i o n of 21 ai large industry at a s p e c i f i c s t i e w i t h i n the urban area w i l l tend to a t t r a c t development toward i t . 5. The l o c a t i o n of c i t y services tends to influence the d i r e c t i o n and pattern of land development. In general, development i s concentrated i n areas where c i t y u t i l i t i e s are a v a i l a b l e . 6. S i m i l a r l y , but to a l e s s extent, the l o c a t i o n of s p e c i f i c community f a c i l i t i e s such as schools, w i l l tend to promote r e s i d e n t i a l land develop-ment i n adjacent areas, and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of f i r e and police protection w i l l a t t r a c t develop-ment i n t o serviced areas. S i m i l a r l y and also to a l e s s e r extent the areas i n which zoning and/or subdivision controls are operative influence the amount and kind of development which takes place. Also to a l e s s e r degree than the l o c a t i o n of highways, industry and u t i l i t i e s , areas of mixed! land use, b l i g h t and minority groups create i r r e g u l a r i t i e s i n land development and the d i r e c t i o n of r e s i d e n t i a l expansion i s away from these areas. 10 Time and space do not permit a complete i t e r a t i o n of the procedure undertaken by Chapin i n v e r i f y i n g and q u a l i f y i n g the above propositions. The research design centred around the objective of determining "what factors are correlated with the deviations from the expected pattern of land development?"'1"'1' I t was reasoned that some of the factors would behave d i f f e r e n t l y i n d i f f e r e n t c i t i e s as w e l l as behave d i f f e r e n t l y over time i n the same c i t y . Two c i t i e s were thus studied: Winston-Salem and Greensboro, North Carolina. To control f o r time the.: factors were studied f o r Greensboro f o r 1948 and f o r 1958 I b i d . , pp. 33-34. I b i d . , p. 34. with respect to i t s recent r i n g of development. A mathematical representation of the c i r c u l a r normal d i s t r i b u t i o n was used to permit measurement of the spread of the urban development pattern from some r e f e r -ence point and the i n t e n s i t y of development. A g r i d coordinate system was used as a basis f o r subdividing the pattern i n t o small u n i t s . Using the above f o r analyzing the pattern of land development, the i n t e n s i t y of develop-ment expected i n each g r i d square i n the c i r c u l a r normal d i s t r i b u t i o n , or i n some multiple form d i s t r i b u t i o n , was estimated. By comparing the actual with the expected i n t e n s i t y of development, r e g u l a r i t i e s and i r r e g u l a r i t i e s were noted and recorded. By observing any p a r t i c u l a r set of land develop-ment conditions found to e x i s t at each g r i d c e l l , i t was possible to e s t a b l i s h by mu l t i v a r i a t e analysis what i n d i v i d u a l f a c t o r or combination of these f a c t o r s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d with i r r e g u l a r i t i e s i n the pattern of land development. "This kind of study p i n -12 points the priming actions." Of the t h i r t e e n f a c t o r s l i s t e d above Chapin omitted, four because of i n s u f f i c i e n t measurement i n coding. The f a c t o r " l o c a t i o n of major highways" was divided i n t o two Chapin and Weiss, (eds.), op. c i t . , p. 4-33 components: t r a v e l distance on major r a d i a l s to high-value corner and t r a v e l distance on c o l l e c t o r s t r e e t s leading to the r a d i a l s . By simple c o r r e l a t i o n of the value of the ten fa c t o r s of land development, the independent v a r i a b l e s , with the deviation from the expected pattern of develop-ment i t was possible to determine the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the ten f a c t o r s and the o v e r a l l pattern of land develop-ment. The r e s u l t s of t h i s analysis are i l l u s t r a t e d i n Table I, page 24. The c l o s e r the c o r r e l a t i o n f o r each f a c t o r i s to unity, the greater i t s s i g n i f i c a n c e as a f a c t o r i n f l u e n c i n g deviations from expected development. The f a c t o r s were then correlated;, i n pai r s to determine what combination of f a c t o r s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d with i r r e g u l a r i t i e s i n the pattern of land development, and to determine t h e i r r e l a t i v e importance i n explaining the deviations from expected land develop-ment. The r e s u l t s of t h i s a n a l y s i s are i l l u s t r a t e d i n Table I I , page 25. Using the data provided i n Table. I the ten fa c t o r s can be l i s t e d i n rank order of influence. Depending on whether a l l ten of the factors are used or j u s t the s i x most s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s a d i f f e r e n t rank order of influence i s obtained. See Tables I I I and IV on pages 26 and 27 r e s p e c t i v e l y . 24 TABLE I COEFFICIENTS OF SIMPLE CORRELATION BETWEEN 10 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES AND DEVIATION FROM EXPECTED LAND DEVELOPMENT PATTERN BASED ON CIRCULAR NORMAL TEMPLATE, GREENSBORO AND WINSTON-SALEM, 1958 (ALL CELLS EXCEPT WORK AREAS) Independent Greensboro a/ Greensboro D / Winston Variable A l l C e l l s - Growth C e l l s - Salem n / A l l C e l l s - 7 1) Travel Distance to High Value .4-28 .505 .567 Corner 2) A c c e s s i b i l i t y to Major Radial - .027 - .052 - .039 Highways 3) Distance to Work Areas, Excluding CBD, Weighted by -.403 - .485 -.040 Employment Poten-t i a l 4) C i t y Water Service .158 .153 .399 5) Proximity to Blighted Areas -.008 -.098 -.060 6) Proximity to Nonwhite Areas -.218 -.281 - .190 7) C i t y Sewer Service .295 .274 .463 8) C i t y Schools .195 .217 .463 9) Proximity to Mixed Uses - .021 -.012 -.040 10) F i r e Protection Service .307 .305 .448 a/ The t o t a l number of c e l l s used i n t h i s aspect of the ~~ a n a l y s i s does not include work c e l l s (removed to permit an a l y s i s of Variable 3) and c e r t a i n other deletions (e.g., r e s e r v o i r s and t h e i r watersheds), b/ Growth c e l l s are those c e l l s which had a coded increase "~ i n i n t e n s i t y of urban land use between 1948 and 1958. The independent v a r i a b l e s are based on 1958 observations. Source: F. Stuart Chapin, J r . , et. a l . , Land  Development Patterns i n the Piedmont I n d u s t r i a l Crescent (Chapel H i l l " U n i v e r s i t y of North Carolina, December I960), p. 53. TABLE I I Relative Influence of 10 and 6 Independent Variables on Deviations from Expected Land Development Pattern Based on C i r c u l a r Normal Template, Greensboro and Winston-Salem, 1958 Greensboro Winston-Salem A l l C e l l s Except Growth C e l l s A l l C e l l s Except Independent Variable Work Areas 1948-1958 Work Areas and Column Number 10 Var. o~~Var. 10 Var. 6 Var. 10 Var. 6~~Var. 1) Travel Distance to High 4 .45 Value Corner 6.23 7.20 4 . 98 13.31 16.73 2) A c c e s s i b i l i t y to Major 2 .89 3A2 4 .24 Radial Highways 2.71 1.90 1.79 3) Distance to Work Areas Excluding CBD, Weighted 4.1+8 4.68 4.81 ^.35 0.60 by Employment Potential 0.73 4 ) C i t y Water Service 2.78 3.27 1 .64 3.51 1.80 1.75 5) Proximity to Blighted 0.68 6.3^ Areas 1.50 1.02 1.31 6.55 6) Proximity to Nonwhite 3 .84 4 .64 Areas 3.96 3.68 3.65 4.56 7) C i t y Sewer Service 2 .98 xxxx 1.96 xxxx 3.53 xxxx 8) C i t y Schools 2 .82 xxxx 1.55 xxxx 0.53 xxxx 9) Proximity to Mixed Uses 0.70 xxxx 1.25 xxxx 3.20 xxxx .0) F i r e Protection Service 3.37 xxxx 3.07 xxxx 0.10 xxxx Source: F. Stuart Chapin, J r . , et. a l . , Land Development Patterns i n the  Piedmont I n d u s t r i a l Crescent (Chapel H i l l : University of North Carolina, December i960), ro 26 TABLE I I I RANK ORDER OF INFLUENCE OF THE 10 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ON THE PATTERN OF URBAN LAND DEVELOPMENT Winston-Greensboro Greensboro Salem A l l - C e l l s Growth-Cells A l l - C e l l s Travel Distance to High Value Corner 1 2 1 Distance to Work, E x c l u -ding CBD, Weighted by Employment P o t e n t i a l 2 1 * Proximity to Blighted Areas * * 2 Proximity to Nonwhite 3 Areas F i r e Protection Service 4 4 * C i t y Sewer Service 5 4 C i t y Schools 6 * * A c c e s s i b i l i t y to Major Radia l Highways 8 * 5 Proximity to Mixed Uses * 6 * " t " value less than 2 and thus not considered s i g n i f i c a n t . Source: F. Stuart Chapin, J r . , et. a l . , Land  Development Patterns i n the Piedmont I n d u s t r i a l Crescent (Chapel H i l l : U n i v e r s i t y of North Carolina,"December I960), p. 57. 27 TABLE IV RANK ORDER OF INFLUENCE OF 6 OF THE 10 INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ON THE PATTERN OF URBAN LAND DEVELOPMENT Winston-Greensboro Greensboro Salem A l l -- C e l l s Growth-Cells A l l - C e l l s Travel Distance to High Value Corner 1 1 1 Distance to Work Area, Excluding CBD, Weighted by Employ-ment P o t e n t i a l 2 2 * Proximity to Blighted Areas * * 2 Proximity to Nonwhite Areas 3 3 3 C i t y Water Service 4 4 * A c c e s s i b i l i t y to Major Radial Highways 3 * 4 * " t " value l e s s than 2 and thus not considered s i g n i f i c a n t . Source: F. Stuart Chapin, J r . , et. a l . , Land  Development Patterns i n the Piedmont I n d u s t r i a l Crescent (Chapel H i l l : U n i v e r s i t y of North Carolina, December I960), p. 56. 28 This d i f f e r e n c e a r i s e s from the f a c t that: Dependent on the composition of the combined mix of v a r i a b l e s , i n multiple regression analysis the influence of i n t e r r e l a t e d f a c t o r s may be shared. As c l o s e l y r e l a t e d f a c t o r s are p a r t i a l l y removed the influence may be concentrated i n a few key f a c t o r s . Chapin also states: because of the sharing e f f e c t of c l o s e l y r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s , the r e a l importance of some v a r i a b l e s may be missed i f only the " t " values are examined. The simple c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s with the dependent v a r i a b l e and between pairs of independent variables: need also to be considered i n the f i n a l s e l e c t i o n of key v a r i a b l e s . This i s obviously the case i n Winston-Salem where the " t " values f o r c i t y schools and f i r e p rotection service were drained by r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s which took precedence i n the 10 v a r i a b l e t e s t (see Table I I ) . 14-With regard to Tables I I , I I I , and IV two important aspects should be pointed out. F i r s t the d i f f e r e n c e between the rank order of influence of the f a c t o r s i n the growth c e l l s ( i . e . , those i n the r i n g of growth around Greensboro from 194-8-1958) as compared to a l l c e l l s i s probably due to the f a c t that these c e l l s , or areas of study, were more i n d i c a t i v e of developing areas and thus the "focus on growth c e l l s may provide a f u l l e r explan-a t i o n of the f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g land development 15 patterns." -'Secondly Chapin s t a t e s , " i t i s apparent that a mix of f a c t o r s rather than a s i n g l e v a r i a b l e o f f e r s a 113 ^Chapin, et. a l . , op. c i t . , p. 54-. 14-I b i d . , p. 56. ^ I b i d . , p. 55. 29 greater p r o b a b i l i t y f o r understanding and eventually 16 p r e d i c t i n g land development patterns." For example, he? suggests "that i n future t e s t s a combined index of the 17 a v a i l a b i l i t y of c i t y services might well be substituted." In the conclusion to the study Chapin states that the l i s t of s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s or factors should be 18 in t e r p r e t e d with extreme caution. He states that the: f a c t o r s c i t e d i n the hypothesis can be t e n t a t i v e l y confirmed as follows: 1. Poor drainage c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s tend to discourage land development i n vacant areas. 2. Location of major routes of transportation tend to i n t e n s i f y land development. 3. Location of work areas with large employment p o t e n t i a l tends to i n t e n s i f y land development. The extent of the influence i s detected only i f work areas are dispersed away from the CBD. 4-. The a v a i l a b i l i t y of community services and f a c i l -i t i e s ( f i r e protection, sewer serv i c e , water service, and schools) tends to i n t e n s i f y land, development. 5. Proximity to blighted areas and proximity to non-white areas tend to discourage urban development which might normally occur i n the absence of these inf l u e n c e s . 19 1 6 I b i d . • ^ I b i d . , p. 54-. I 8 I b i d . , p. 58. 1 9 I b i d . 30 Implications of Chapin's work. Chapin concludes by s t a t i n g that the p a r t i c u l a r study described above has highly s i g n i f i c a n t implications f o r planning. One of these implications i s that of u t i l i z i n g p u b l i c p o l i c y decisions with regard to the l o c a t i o n of a c i t y ' s road, water, sewer, f i r e and school service areas; and with regard to zoning and s u b d i v i s i o n j u r i s d i c t i o n to guide urban land development. Chapin concluded that h i s study ind i c a t e d that the above public p o l i c y decisions c o n s t i -tuted priming actions and therefore were actions that triggered and determined the pattern of urban land development. He states "that adherence to p a r t i c u l a r combinations of p u b l i c p o l i c i e s o f f e r s a powerful means f o r achieving community aims and objectives of land 20 development." I t i s our contention that while the sum t o t a l e f f e c t of a l l actions may not produce exactly the land development pattern expected from priming actions, they w i l l tend to produce t h i s expected pattern. 21 Evaluation of Chapin's work. In Chapin*s study four of the o r i g i n a l t h i r t e e n f a c t o r s suggested as i n f l u -encing the pattern of urban land development had to be omitted from the t e s t i n g stage because of i n s u f f i c i e n t I b i d . , p. 66. Chapin and Weiss, (eds.), op. c i t . , p. 4-51. 31 measurement i n coding or inadequacies f o r s t a t i s t i c a l operations. These factors were: (1) l o c a t i o n of water areas and areas subject to f l o o d , (2) l o c a t i o n of c i t y ' s p o l i c e s e r v i c e , (3) l o c a t i o n of c i t y * s zoning j u r i s d i c t i o n , and (4) l o c a t i o n of c i t y ' s subdivision control j u r i s d i c -t i o n . The omission of the above factors i s s i g n i f i c a n t . The l o c a t i o n of water areas and areas subject to f l o o d i s a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n determining the pattern of land development. Coughlin i n "Programing Pu b l i c F a c i l i t i e s to Shape Community Growth" states: Problems of a i r p o l l u t i o n , p o l l u t i o n of major streams, flood c o n t r o l , and water supply can i n f l u ^ ence strongly the physical development of a town. The s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h i s f a c t o r w i l l be further c l a r i f i e d i n the works of Wiley and Wolfe i n s o f a r as i t constitutes an overriding f a c t o r that may tend to over-shadow the influence of other f a c t o r s , i . e . , the influence of the l o c a t i o n of p u b l i c land uses. The l o c a t i o n of zoning and subdivision control j u r i s d i c t i o n are also important and p a r t i c u l a r l y so i f they are integrated, coordinated, and reinforced with at strong public p o l i c y of providing public f a c i l i t i e s so as to guide urban growth. Coughlin states: "...zoning, Robert E. Coughlin, "Programing Pu b l i c F a c i l i t i e s to Shape Community Growth", A Place to L i v e , The Yearbook of A g r i c u l t u r e , 1963, The United States Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , (Washington: Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1963), p. 467. 32 the most important of these, (public p o l i c i e s ) can strengthen or d i s s i p a t e the influence of p u b l i c f a c i l -23 i t i e s on development." ^ Chapin recognizes that the l i s t of f a c t o r s con-sidered as c o n s t i t u t i n g primary actions must be interpreted 24 with extreme caution. He states that the study "deals systematically with only some of the most obvious public 25 p o l i c i e s a f f e c t i n g land development." ^ Chapin states: " f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n a v a r i e t y of s i t u a t i o n s must 26 be completed before v a l i d conclusions can be drawn." He goes on to re-emphasize that the mix of f a c t o r s found to be s i g n i f i c a n t i n one community w i l l be d i f f e r e n t from 27 those found to be important i n another. ' R e l a t i o n of Chapin's work to the t h e s i s . Subject to the l i m i t a t i o n s of the study Chapin has shown that the l o c a t i o n of c e r t a i n f a c i l i t i e s within an urban area tends to influence the o v e r a l l pattern of land development as i n d i c a t e d by deviations from the expected normal d i s t r i b u t i o n of urban development. I f Chapin has 2 ^ I b i d . , p. 466. 24 Chapin, et. a l . , op. c i t . , p. 58. 2 5 I b i d . , p. 73-2 6 I b i d . 2 7 I b i d . , p. 74. c o r r e c t l y assumed that those f a c t o r s that s i g n i f i c a n t l y influenced the pattern of urban land development c o n s t i -tute priming actions within the context of h i s theory; then i t can be assumed that s i t e s f o r those public land uses studied, i . e . , roads, schools, and f i r e stations i f acquired i n advance of need could " t r i g g e r " numerous secondary actions and thus influence the pattern of urban land development. I f the above i s correct then the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r those public f a c i l i t i e s i f c a r r i e d out under a consistent p u b l i c p o l i c y , i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan, could constitute an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide urban land development. The Contribution of Stanley R. Wiley Wiley's t h e s i s "The E f f e c t of Limited Access 28 Highways Upon Suburban Land Use" while p r i m a r i l y concerned with the e f f e c t of l i m i t e d access highways upon r e s i d e n t i a l development, considered the t o t a l array of influences upon land development patterns and deter-mined the r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n of the highway's influence within the t o t a l of forces that influence s p a t i a l develop-ment patterns. Wiley was able to rank the major f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the s p a t i a l patterns of suburban r e s i d e n t i a l ^ US.R. Wiley, "The E f f e c t of Limited Access High-ways Upon Suburban Land Uses", (Unpublished Master's Thesis The U n i v e r s i t y of Washington, S e a t t l e , 1958), 146 pp. 34 development by the use of graphic an a l y s i s . The findings of h i s study are relevant to t h i s thesis i n s o f a r as they give an i n d i c a t i o n of the relevant influence of s t r e e t s , f i r e s t a t i o n s , and schools on the pattern of urban land development. Method and nature of study. To a r r i v e at a l i s t of those major fact o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the pattern of suburban r e s i d e n t i a l land development and to organize them into a l o g i c a l hierarchy Wiley used the following methods. Three areas were considered within the Seattle Metropolitan Area. One area was the study area and the other two c o n t r o l , or 29 "comparative analysis areas." Three time periods were used to show trends i n development, 1936, 1950 and 1957. The study was based upon a graphic analysis from a series; of maps developed f o r the study. These maps showed past and present development by mapping c e r t a i n i n d i c e s of development. The following two indices of development were used: 1. Actual dwelling unit inventories were investigated to measure actual development. 2. An i n v e s t i g a t i o n of plot t e d land was made as a r e f l e c t i o n of plans, expectations, and the po t e n t i a l f e l t to e x i s t i n the areas. 30 I b i d . , p. 7. I b i d . , p. 20. 35 Wiley's method of a r r i v i n g at a l i s t of influences and of evaluating them involved a d e s c r i p t i v e i n v e s t i -gation i n t o those major forces or influences that could be observed or were suggested by a graphical analysis of the maps p l o t t i n g the development trends f o r the three years, i n the study and co n t r o l areas, using the above two i n d i c e s . Wiley i d e n t i f i e d the following f a c t o r s of influence and c l a s s i f i e d them i n t o two broad categories: physical or n a t u r a l , and man-made. The ph y s i c a l or na t u r a l i n f l u -ences included topographic features, ( i . e . , slopes over 15$) peat bogs and swamps, and other poorly-drained s o i l s . Man-made influences were broken down into i n s t i t u t i o n a l functions and services i n c l u d i n g public u t i l i t i e s , schools, and shopping centers; and int o tangible and in t a n g i b l e values such as l o c a l governmental regulations, r e a l property values, s i t e amenities, and prestige l o c a t i o n i n f l u e n c e s . The above influences were then formulated i n t o a matrix of land development influences from which conclusions could be drawn. A scale' f o r measuring the influence of each f a c t o r f o r each area (the study area and the two co n t r o l areas) was developed with a f i v e - p o i n t range. An influence score of 1 connotated a d i r e c t influence upon l o c a t i o n while a score of 5 indicated e i t h e r no influence or an 31 influence by r e s i d e n t i a l development i t s e l f . 5 1 I b i d . , p. 55. The scores given f o r each f a c t o r f o r each area represented the given f a c t o r ' s influence as evidenced by development trends from 1936 to 1957 and supported 32 by conclusions drawn from the matrix table. The rank order of the above fa c t o r s according to t h e i r r e l a t i v e degree of influence, as determined by Wiley, appears i n Table V, page 37. Evaluation of Wiley's work. Wiley's method of ranking the f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g development i s to a great extent subjective not so much i n the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and assessment of each f a c t o r ' s impact but i n the f i n a l ranking of the f a c t o r s i n the s c a l e . R e l a t i o n of Wiley's work to the t h e s i s . In con-t r a s t to Chapin, Wiley's work in d i c a t e s that u t i l i t i e s , f i r e s t a t i o n s , roads, and schools have l i t t l e , very l i t t l e or no influence on the pattern of r e s i d e n t i a l land development. Wiley's study i n d i c a t e s that the major f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the o v e r a l l patterns of r e s i d e n t i a l development are f i r s t natural or physical features; and-secondly tangible and intangible values such as s i t e amenities, land values, prestige areas, and governmental reg u l a t i o n s . I f the above i s the case then the p r i o r Ib i d . , p. 62. 37 TABLE V WILEY'S RATING OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE LOCATION OF RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT C l a s s i -f i c a t i o n Factors Study Control Control Overall Area Area 1 Area 2 Rating Topography 2 2 2 2 Natural or Peat bogs and T T T T P h y s i c a l swamps J. X JL A Features Other poorly 7, 7, 7. drained s o i l s U t i l i t i e s and ii It 4 .3 I n s t i t u - F i r e s t a t i o n s *f •+ z> t i o n a l Functions Schools 5 5 5 3 and Services Shopping centers 3 3 2 3.3 Tangible Values Man-made Governmental Regulations Land Values 3 2 3 3 3 1 3.6 2 Intan-g i b l e Values S i t e amenities Prestige Areas 2 2 1 1 3 4 2 2.3 Highway Impact A c c e s s i b i l i t y 3 2 3 3.3 Scale of Rating: 1 2 3 D i r e c t Influence F a i r Influence L i t t l e Influence 4 Very l i t t l e Influence 3 No Influence Source: S.R. Wiley, "The E f f e c t of Limited Access Highways Upon Suburban Land Use", (Unpublished Master's Thesis, The U n i v e r s i t y of Washington, S e a t t l e , 1958), p. 64. 38 a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses w i l l have l i t t l e or no e f f e c t as a technique to guide urban land develop-ment. The Contribution of M.R. Wolfe In 1961 M.R. Wolfe c a r r i e d out a study at the U n i v e r s i t y of Washington e n t i t l e d Location Factors  Involved i n Suburban Land Development. While Wolfe's work d i d not e s t a b l i s h a rank order of f a c t o r s by influence i t i s s t i l l valuable i n s o f a r as i t provides an a d d i t i o n a l framework within which the influence of public land uses on the pattern of land development can be evaluated. Method and nature of study. Wolfe's study surveyed and evaluated the decisions of those persons concerned with the development of suburban land. Surveys were made of selected case study areas, and the s i g n i f -i c a n t people and agencies involved i n development of these areas were interviewed to determine the nature of t h e i r actions and the r a t i o n a l e behind them. The f a c t o r s or forces, as taken from the summary of the study, that influenced the large scale developer's l o c a t i o n a l choice f o r t r a c t houses were as follows: The f a c t o r s that he (the developer) considered to be important influenced the d i r e c t i o n he took within the framework established by c e r t a i n external forces. These forces were d i f f e r e n t i a t e d into two broad types: 39 those that tended to encourage hi s outward r e l o c a t i o n to undeveloped areas and those that tended to more t i g h t l y r e s t r i c t h i s l o c a t i o n a l radius. The combin-a t i o n of these tends to create a zone of a c t i o n within which the developer-builder could and would locate. (a) Choices of the market, p a r t i c u l a r l y as judged by such agencies as the f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s and f e d e r a l mortgage i n s u r i n g agencies, tend to r e s t r i c t his outward movement from urban and suburban land. (b) Public regulatory agencies represented by such as the planning commission, through r e s t r i c -t i v e measures, (zoning, b u i l d i n g codes, etc.) tend to force the developer-builder out from the suburban areas to the suburban-rural f r i n g e areas. (c) The a v a i l a b i l i t y and p r i c e of land i n higher density areas also tend to force him to seek l e s s developed areas i n which to l o c a t e . (d) Access i s a necessary element i n terms of broad areas of l o c a t i o n ; however, within these broad areas i t i s not a determining f a c t o r i n the developer-builder's s p e c i f i c s i t e s e l e c t i o n . Within the zone of action, as determined by the foregoing forces, the developer-builder has greater freedom of choice i n respect to the exercise of unfettered decisions. This d e c i s i o n of l o c a t i o n a l choice i s then made on the basis of f a c t o r s where the r e s t r a i n t s can be more e a s i l y manipulated. (a) Natural f a c t o r s such as topography, s o i l , water and sewage considerations narrow his l o c a t i o n a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s as he picks and chooses among them. (b) The e f f e c t of public regulatory measures may well be quite non-coercive depending on d i f f e r i n g degrees of enforcement or ease of change by p e t i t i o n . (c) The assembly of s u i t a b l e large pieces of land and t h e i r a v a i l a b i l i t y decreases his s p a t i a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s . 33 M^.R. Wolfe, et. a l . . "Locational Factors Involved i n Suburban Land Development" (Seattle: U n i v e r s i t y of Washington, 1961), pp. 11-12. (mimeographed) 40 S i g n i f i c a n c e of Wolfe's work f o r the hypothesis. The p r i n c i p a l s i g n i f i c a n c e of Wolfe's work with regard to the t h e s i s i s that i t i n d i c a t e s that there may be important economic forces and f a c t o r s that the developer considers f i r s t over and above the l o c a t i o n a l aspects of p u b l i c land uses. , That i s f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , f e d e r a l mortgage i n s u r i n g agencies, governmental regulations, and the price of land w i l l have a greater influence on the l o c a t i o n a l decisions of the developer than w i l l decisions with regard to the p r i o r s i t i n g of public land uses. The cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s are, however, obscure here i n s o f a r as c e r t a i n economic forces and f a c t o r s (lending p o l i c i e s , land values, prestige areas, etc.,) are themselves conditioned by l o c a t i o n a l decisions such that the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses could influence lending p o l i c i e s , land values and prestige factors within an area and i n so doing influence the pattern of urban land development as the r e s u l t of secondary actions as described by Chapin. The above statement holds f o r Wiley's work as well as f o r Wolfe's. The Writings of Coughlin, Davis, Glazer and Webster The writings of Coughlin, Davis, Glazer and Webster are discussed together. They are taken from published a r t i c l e s and represent the opinions and convictions of t h e i r authors, without v e r i f i c a t i o n by supporting evidence. However, t h e i r writings are considered to be of value with regard to v e r i f y i n g the hypothesis i n s o f a r as the opinions and judgements of those most f a m i l i a r with the problem constitute a basis upon which the v a l i d i t y of the hypo-th e s i s can be judged. Throughout h i s a r t i c l e , "Programing P u b l i c F a c i l i t i e s to Shape Community Growth", Coughlin states that the a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public f a c i l i t i e s and t h e i r improvements, i n advance of development, by u t i -l i z i n g a c a p i t a l program i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan i s an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide the 34 pattern of urban land development. To i l l u s t r a t e the above contention Coughlin uses the example of an expanding community and i l l u s t r a t e s how the p r o v i s i o n of public f a c i l i t i e s i n advance of need can a i d i n the guidance of that community's growth. In r e l a t i o n to t h i s example Coughlin in d i c a t e s that the p r i o r p r o v i s i o n of s t r e e t s , water and sewer l i n e s i s an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide urban development. This i s . p a r t i c u l a r l y true f o r a r t e r i a l s t r e e t s . A new a r t e r i a l s t r e e t w i l l change the a c c e s s i -b i l i t y of an area. The developer w i l l i n t e r p r e t t h i s as a change i n i t s p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r development. Therefore, unlike a new l o c a l s t r e e t , which simply c a p i t a l i z e s on the e x i s t i n g convenience of the l o c a t i o n of a t r a c t , the new a r t e r i a l s t r e e t i s l i k e l y to change the development trend of a town.-5'3 Coughlin, op. c i t . , pp. 460-468. Ibi d . , p. 464. 42 With regard to the use of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of rights-of-way f o r l o c a l s treets and the p r i o r p r o v i s i o n of sewer and water l i n e s as a technique to guide urban growth Coughlin i s , however, quick to mention that: the p r i o r construction of these u t i l i t i e s by government w i l l not n e c e s s a r i l y lead p r i v a t e entre-preneurs to b u i l d houses. In f a c t , because the u t i l i t i e s may l i m i t the v a r i e t y of layout possible on a t r a c t , t h e i r existence may turn away prospective developers. The f a i l u r e of such public f a c i l i t i e s to induce growth was a hard-learned lesson f o r many towns that i n the twenties and t h i r t i e s constructed s t r e e t s and waterlines i n the absence of demand f o r new housing. 36 Coughlin goes on to state: "the school, l i k e the trunk sewer, i s a s t r a t e g i c f a c i l i t y , which w i l l a t t r a c t a concentration of new dwellings i n i t s v i c i n i t y — a schoolbus program notwithstanding". ' The above statement that school s i t e s w i l l " a t t r a c t a concentration of new dwellings" i s very s i m i l a r to Chapin's conclusion with regard to c e r t a i n p u b l i c land uses, i . e . , schools and f i r e s t a t i o n s , tending to i n t e n s i f y land development (see page 29 of t h e s i s ) . Glazer i n h i s a r t i c l e , "The School as an Instrument i n Planning" s t a t e s : i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . . . i t i s obvious that to think of roads and other f a c i l i t i e s only i n terms of serving ^ I b i d . , p. 464. 5 7 I b i d . 43 •needs' l e a v e s a s i d e t h e v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t t h a t t h e y t h e m s e l v e s p l a y a most a c t i v e r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e g r o w t h and c h a r a c t e r o f an a r e a and t h u s c r e a t e •needs' a t l e a s t as much as t h e y s a t i s f y them. I b e l i e v e t h a t t h e s c h o o l i n o u r l a r g e c i t i e s now p l a y s a s i m i l a r r o l e . The s c h o o l i s so c l o s e l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e d e c i s i o n s p e o p l e make as t o where t o l i v e t h a t we c a n n o t v i e w i t s i m p l y as a ' s e r v i c e ' dependent on an e s t i m a t e o f 'need'; we must r e a l i z e t h a t t h i s • s e r v i c e ' has become so i m p o r t a n t as t o i t s e l f d e t e r m i n e f a c t o r s w h i c h t h e a n a l y s i s o f s c h o o l needs t a k e s as d e t e r m i n a t i v e . The problem o f how t h e s c h o o l a f f e c t s t h e u r b a n a r e a i s as s u b t l e and complex as any i n p l a n n i n g ; b u t i f we can s o l v e i t , t h e s c h o o l may become as p o w e r f u l an i n s t r u m e n t i n c r e a t i n g good s m a l l u r b a n a r e a s as t h e placement o f m a j o r r o a d s i s i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e o v e r - a l l f o rm o f a c i t y . 38 C o u g h l i n b e l i e v e s t h a t t h e p r o g r a m i n g o f t h e system o f m a j o r open s p a c e s w i t h i n a community a i d s i n s h a p i n g community g r o w t h . D a v i s i n "The Uses and V a l u e s o f Open Space" s t a t e s : "open s p a c e s o f f e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r 59 s h a p i n g t h e development y e t t o come i n u r b a n a r e a s . " D o n a l d H. We b s t e r i n h i s book, Urban P l a n n i n g and M u n i c i p a l P u b l i c P o l i c y , c o n c u r s w i t h C o u g h l i n , G l a z e r and D a v i s when he makes t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t : " p u b l i c improvements have a v i t a l i n f l u e n c e i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e 40 degree and d i r e c t i o n o f community development". 58 Nathan G l a z e r , "The S c h o o l as an I n s t r u m e n t i n P I a r m i n g " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s , XXV, No. 4 lNovem5er7~T^59;, p. 19T. 39 " ^ A r t h u r A. D a v i s , "The Uses and V a l u e s o f Open Space", A P l a c e t o L i v e , The Yearbook o f A g r i c u l t u r e 1963, The U n i t e d S t a t e s Department o f A g r i c u l t u r e , ( W a s h i n g t o n : Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1963), p. 330. 40 D o n a l d H. Webster, Urban P l a n n i n g and M u n i c i p a l  P u b l i c P o l i c y (New Y o r k : H a r p e r and B r o t h e r s , Pub. ' 1 9 5 8 ) ; p. 313. 44 Coughlin q u a l i f i e s the above conclusions by s t a t i n g : The emerging structure of a community's public f a c i l i t i e s systems w i l l have i t s most s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s on the development of r e s i d e n t i a l and com-mercial areas. I t s e f f e c t s are perhaps l e s s on the l o c a t i o n of new areas f o r manufacturing, f o r which t i e s to d i s t a n t markets and supply sources may be more important than the intimate r e l a t i o n with l o c a l a c t i v i t i e s . 41 He also goes on to state the important point that: The programing of public f a c i l i t i e s , then has important e f f e c t s on community development, but the prospect of success i n shaping the community i s great only i f a l l the p o l i c i e s of the town are consistent among themselves and with the physical structure that i s a c t u a l l y coming i n t o being. 42 In conclusion Coughlin points out that not a l l public land uses influence the pattern of urban land development to the same degree. The above aspect i s also implied i n the works of Chapin wherein the degree to which the l o c a t i o n of a public land use w i l l influence the pattern of land development i s determined by whether the d e c i s i o n to locate i t constitutes a priming action. A method to i d e n t i f y and c l a s s i f y those p u b l i c land uses c o n s t i t u t i n g priming actions and thus those that w i l l have to some extent a s i g n i f i c a n t influence on land development patterns i s suggested by Coughlin. Coughlin categorizes p u b l i c f a c i l i t i e s i n t o c i t y 41 Coughlin, op, c i t . , p. 467. 42 Ib i d . b u i l d i n g and c i t y serving f a c i l i t i e s . C i t y b u i l d i n g f a c i l i t i e s are "those that can be expected to play a s t r a t e g i c r o l e i n timing and s t r u c t u r i n g development" while c i t y serving f a c i l i t i e s are "those that w i l l have 43 l i t t l e e f f e c t " upon the pattern of development. While t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n may not be e n t i r e l y s a t i s f a c t o r y i t provides a framework f o r c l a s s i f y i n g p u b lic land uses i n t o those that influence the pattern of development and those that do not. C i t y b u i l d i n g public land uses can be equated with those public land uses whose l o c a t i o n a l decisions would constitute a priming a c t i o n and hence would " t r i g g e r other actions and thus influence the course of events which accounts f o r the pattern of development that subsequently emerges . Coughlin considers that the p r i n c i p a l c i t y b u i l d i n g p u b l i c land uses are roads, schools, major public open spaces, and c e r t a i n governmental, administrative, j u d i c i a l , and c u l t u r a l complexes. With d i r e c t reference to the problem posed i n Chapter I of t h i s t h e s i s Webster sta t e s : the action taken by the c i t y c ouncil i n l o c a t i n g designing, and constructing the c i t y h a l l , p u b l i c l i b r a r i e s , c i v i c centers, f i r e s t a t i o n s , parks, play-grounds, or other public structures and f a c i l i t i e s i n I b i d . , p. 468. Chapin, op. c i t . , p. 93. 46 accordance with the comprehensive plan i s the e s s e n t i a l mode of plan implementation. 45 Summary of Observations Part I The review of the l i t e r a t u r e with regard to the influence of public land uses on the pattern of urban land development as i t has a bearing on the effectiveness of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use as a technique to guide urban development reveals the following aspects: 1. That there e x i s t s a hierarchy of f a c t o r s that influences the pattern of land development within an urban area; and that public land uses while c o n s t i t u t i n g a segment of t h i s hierarchy are not at the top of t h i s hierarchy but are s i t u a t e d a f t e r the following f a c t o r s ; natural or physical features; t r a v e l distance to high value corner and to work areas; c e r t a i n tangible and i n t a n -g i b l e values such as s i t e amenities, proximity to prestige areas, nonwhite areas and b l i g h t e d areas, governmental regulations, and land values; c e r t a i n economic forces and f a c t o r s ; and c i t y sewer and water serv i c e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . 2. That the degree of influence of the above f a c t o r s Webster, op. c i t . , p. 274. 47 i n c l u d i n g the influence of the l o c a t i o n of public land uses w i l l not only behave d i f f e r e n t l y i n d i f f e r e n t c i t i e s but w i l l behave d i f f e r e n t l y over time i n the same c i t y , ( i . e . , the same f a c i l i t i e s i n d i f f e r e n t circumstances can have very d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s . ) That the l o c a t i o n s of s i t e s f o r d i f f e r e n t public land uses do not have the same degree of influence on the pattern of urban land development. That i s , there e x i s t s a hierarchy of influence within the broad category of p u b l i c land uses. The d i v i s i o n s of t h i s hierarchy can be dist i n g u i s h e d on the basis of whether the pu b l i c land use i s a c i t y b u i l d i n g or priming a c t i o n f a c i l i t y having a s i g n i f i c a n t influence, or a c i t y serving or secondary a c t i o n f a c i l i t y i n which case i t w i l l have l i t t l e or no influence on the pattern of urban land development. That where the locations of public land uses do have a s i g n i f i c a n t influence they w i l l tend to i n t e n s i f y the pattern of land development. That the a r e a l extent of the influence of the l o c a t i o n of a public land use i s v a r i a b l e i n d i f f e r e n t circumstances but that i t has been assumed to extend over the service area of that f a c i l i t y . 6. That the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses w i l l have the most s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s on guiding the development of r e s i d e n t i a l and commercial areas rather than on manufacturing and i n d u s t r i a l areas. 7. That i t i s very d i f f i c u l t to i s o l a t e and measure the influence of any one f a c t o r as the influence of each i s dependent upon, re i n f o r c e d or d i s -sipated by the influence of the others. This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y true with regard to those factors linked to and dependent upon coherent and consistent public p o l i c y . I I . THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FEASIBILITY OF THE PRIOR ACQUISITION OF SITES FOR PUBLIC LAND USE Part I I of Chapter I I consists of a review of the av a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e dealing with the economic and p o l i t i c a l aspects of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use i n order to assess i t s f e a s i b i l i t y f o r the majority of municipal governments. No references or studies were found that appear to have undertaken a d e t a i l e d evaluation of f e a s i b i l i t y with regard to the top i c under dis c u s s i o n i n t h i s part. 4 6 >Chapin, et. a l . , op. c i t . , p. 45. 49 Economic F e a s i b i l i t y A report of the Land Committee of the National Resources Planning Board, Public Land A c q u i s i t i o n , Part I I : Urban Lands stated: Since urban land i s r e l a t i v e l y expensive, and since most c i t i e s consider themselves f i n a n c i a l l y hard pressed, the question of f i n a n c i n g land a c q u i s i t i o n programs assumes major importance. Few American c i t i e s today could a f f o r d to undertake a broad program of land purchase and condemnation out of current funds; those that could not face three a l t e r n a t i v e s : to r a i s e the money outside of regular revenues; to get the land at lower p r i c e s ; or to employ a c q u i s i t i o n techniques which involve l i t t l e or no cash outlay. 47 Richard R a t c l i f f i n h i s a r t i c l e , "The Dynamics of E f f i c i e n c y i n the Locational D i s t r i b u t i o n of Urban A c t i v i t i e s " , s t a t e s : In the matter of public land use, the c i t i z e n s a c t i n g i n unison through t h e i r elected representatives and the established governmental machinery, determine where parks, schools, s t r e e t s , and sewerage plants s h a l l be found and enter the market to bid f o r these l o c a t i o n s at a market-determined p r i c e . I t i s true that the c i t i z e n r y cannot be outbid i f the community i s w i l l i n g to pay the necessary price i n a condemnation s u i t , but the d e c i s i o n to proceed with public improve-ments i s , i n f a c t , g r e a t l y influenced by the prospective cost of a c q u i s i t i o n of the s i t e , whether by negotiation or by condemnation. 48 'National Resources Planning Board, P u b l i c Land-A c q u i s i t i o n : Part I I Urban Lands (Washington: National Resource Planning Board, February, 1941), p. 30. 48 Richard U. R a t c l i f f , "The Dynamics of E f f i c i e n c y i n the Locational D i s t r i b u t i o n of Urban A c t i v i t i e s " , Harold M. Mayer and Clyde F. Kohn (eds.), Readings i n  Urban Geography (Chicago: U n i v e r s i t y of Chicago Press, 1 9 3 9 ) , p. 3 0 3 . 50 I t i s obvious from the above two quotations that the f i n a n c i a l aspects involved i s a key determinant i n whether or not the a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use, i n advance of need, i s a f e a s i b l e proposition f o r most municipal governments. As stated e a r l i e r i t does not appear that any studies have been c a r r i e d out that have determined whether or not the advance a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use i s an economically f e a s i b l e proposition. However, a large number of examples have been c o l l e c t e d , by various agencies, that demonstrate the monetary savings that have re s u l t e d from, and accrued to, various municipal govern-ments as the r e s u l t of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan. The following table taken from the American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , Information Report No. 125, Planning  Pays, i l l u s t r a t e s the kind and extent of savings possible r e s u l t i n g from acquiring s i t e s f o r public land uses i n advance of need. (In addition to the examples and i l l u s t r a t i o n s of savings given below, there are several examples i n the Appendix that show i n more d e t a i l how estimates of savings were a r r i v e d at.) 51 TABLE VI SAVINGS RESULTING AS THE RESULT OF SCHOOL AND PARK SITES ACQUIRED IN ADVANCE OF NEED F a c i l i t y Savings C i n c i n n a t i , Ohio Dayton, Ohio Madison, Wisconsin Montclair, New Jersey Oak Park, Michigan San Diego, C a l i f o r n i a Tacoraa, Washington S i t e s f o r parks. Savings based on fi g u r e s f o r 4 s i t e s ; purchased at $1,800 per acre, c u r r e n t l y valued at $15,000 per acre. S i t e s f o r schools; savings based on f i g u r e s f o r 4 s i t e s ; purchased at $5,600 per acre, curre n t l y valued at $20,000 per acre. See Appendix. Neighborhood playgrounds (8 s i t e s ) purchased i n 1944-1950. 60-acre property located i n a projected park area pur-chased i n 1950; today land cannot be purchased i n the general area. Neighborhood park s i t e of 4 acres acquired i n 1950 f o r $6,000; s i m i l a r land now s e l l i n g f o r $7,000 an acre. See Appendix. See Appendix. Elementary school s i t e s (4) and high school s i t e s (3) acquired from tax delinquent lands. $11,200 per acre (average) 16,400 per acre (average) 512,000 100,000 22,000 150,000 TABLE VI (continued) 52 Tucson-Pima Go., High school s i t e of 40 acres Arizona purchased f i v e years ago f o r $35,000; land now worth more than $250,000. Waterloo, Iowa Neighborhood park-school s i t e of 23 acres acquired i n 1958 f o r $36,000; present value, due to new high school, proposed h o s p i t a l , and r e s i -d e n t i a l development, $69,000. 215,000 33,000 Source: American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , Planning Advisory Service, Planning Pays, Information Report No. 123 (Chicago: American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , June, 1959), p. 4. 53 The above examples i n d i c a t e that the p r i o r acquis-i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use can be an economically v i a b l e , as well as highly d e s i r a b l e , proposition. I t should also be pointed out that i f i n f a c t urban development can be guided by the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use then the a d d i t i o n a l savings that could accrue to the municipality as the d i r e c t r e s u l t of having c o n t r o l l e d and guided urban development in t o the most economic pattern of growth as predetermined by the comprehensive community plan could make the economic aspects of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s even more favorable i n terms of long run savings. This would be p a r t i c u l a r l y true with regard to those m u n i c i p a l i t i e s plagued by problems of urban sprawl. To i l l u s t r a t e the type of savings that can occur the following example i s given by the Planning Department of the Corporation of the Township of Richmond, B r i t i s h Columbia: Without, at t h i s time, considering the many other advantages obtainable from concentrating R e s i d e n t i a l [ s i c ] density, the savings i n school costs alone can be conservatively estimated at $150,000, not counting savings i n Administration [ s i c ] and Maintenance [ s i c j f o r such new f a c i l i t i e s . 49 The above examples may show that the p r i o r acquis-i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use i s economically v i a b l e , ^The Corporation of the Township of Richmond Planning Department, " F i n a n c i a l Savings Obtainable by Controlled Development, with Richmond Examples" (Richmond: Richmond Planning Department, about I960), p. 2. (mimeographed.) 54 however, there s t i l l e x i s t s the question as to whether or not i t i s a f i n a n c i a l l y f e a s i b l e proposition f o r most m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , i . e . , whether or not revenues exceed the expenditures involved. I t i s generally recognized that most municipal governments are hard pressed- with regard to f i n a n c i a l resources and could thus not finance a program of advanced land a c q u i s i t i o n out of current funds. (See quotation National Resources Planning Board, page 49.) With regard to the above Coughlin s t a t e s : the now-rural j u r i s d i c t i o n s lack the f i n a n c i a l resources necessary to provide f a c i l i t i e s and reserve land i n advance of growth. One of the great dilemmas of urbanization i s t h i s : I t can be accomplished most e f f i c i e n t l y and harmoniously i f the key p u b l i c f a c i l -i t i e s are created e a r l y and shape rather than accom-modate themselves to growth, but the tax base necessary to pay f o r the f a c i l i t i e s i s not a v a i l a b l e u n t i l a f t e r the growth has occurred. One way out of the dilemma i s an expanded program of State and Federal grants f o r those f a c i l i t i e s and f o r the r e s e r v a t i o n of open-space areas that are most c r i t i c a l f o r communities. 50 The National Resources Planning Board's report, Public Land A c q u i s i t i o n , Part I I Urban Lands, i n d i c a t e s that most municipal governments, i n order to finance a broad program of advance a c q u i s i t i o n , would have to r e s o r t to and be aided by the levying of s p e c i a l taxes, s p e c i a l borrowing procedures, grants-in-aid, subsidies, excess condemnation, and other s p e c i a l techniques.^ 1 Coughlin, op. c i t . , p. 468. National Resources Planning Board, op. c i t . , p. 30. 55 The National Resources Planning Board goes on, however, to ind i c a t e that the two p r i n c i p a l methods of land a c q u i s i t i o n f o r acquiring s p e c i f i c a l l y designated s i t e s , purchase by negotiation and condemnation or exprop-r i a t i o n , can be undertaken with greater ease and at a su b s t a n t i a l reduction i n cost by supplementing and i n t e -g r a t i n g them i n t o a broad program of public land 52 acquisition,by exchange. This broad program of acquis-i t i o n would include the obtaining of land throughout the c i t y whenever possible by r e l y i n g on the techniques of tax reversion, mortgage foreclosure, a c q u i s i t i o n by g i f t , and reclamation of land. Once a reserve of pu b l i c land had been b u i l t up by r e l a t i v e l y inexpensive means the technique of a c q u i s i t i o n by exchange could be applied. A c q u i s i t i o n by exchange i s a method of supple-menting other land a c q u i s i t i o n techniques. While i t may not add anything to the t o t a l value of public land holdings, i t permits the u n i t of government involved to increase i t s holdings of a p a r t i c u l a r type of property, or i n a p a r t i c u l a r s e c t i o n of the c i t y . The obvious advantage of exchange i s that every piece of land, of whatever type or wherever located, becomes p o t e n t i a l l y usable f o r municipal purposes. I f a c i t y abandons a firehouse near the center of town and has no use f o r the land, i t may be able to exchange t h i s small but valuable plot f o r a much l a r g e r area near the o u t s k i r t s . 53 I b i d . , p. 27. 5 5 I b i d . 56 The report states that the advantages of augmenting purchase by negotiation and expropriation by a c q u i s i t i o n by exchange are that i t aids the c i t y i n dealing with property owners i n purchase areas, allows government to spread t h e i r land a c q u i s i t i o n costs over a number of years and may allow f o r a cheaper program of advance a c q u i s i t i o n . V i g i l a n t o f f i c i a l s , aware of the c i t y ' s land needs and of the many techniques by which land may be acquired, may expand the c i t y ' s holdings con-s i d e r a b l y with no expenditure of funds whatsoever. By augmenting these with j u d i c i o u s purchases or exchanges to round out e x i s t i n g areas, the c i t y ' s l a n d - a c q u i s i t i o n program may be at once E f f e c t i v e and inexpensive. 55 P o l i t i c a l F e a s i b i l i t y , Administration, and Current P r a c t i c e Aside from the economic and f i n a n c i a l f e a s i b i l i t y of the a c q u i s i t i o n of public land i n advance of need there e x i s t s the question regarding the p o l i t i c a l and admini-s t r a t i v e f e a s i b i l i t y of the a c q u i s i t i o n of p u b l i c land i n advance of need. Studies or writings dealing with t h i s aspect appear to be t o t a l l y l a c k i n g . Those studies that considered the problem did so i n a very general manner. The American' Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s I n f o r -mation Report, New Techniques f o r Shaping Urban Expansion sta t e s : 3 4 I b i d . , p. 28. ^ 5 I b i d . , p . 51. 57 In general, communities have the l e g a l authority they need f o r the advanced purchase of land, although they are frequently short of the necessary funds to make such purchases. There i s also reluctance on the part of the c i t y o f f i c i a l s to commit the c i t y i r r e -vocably to a scheme f a r i n advance of the time the scheme can be c a r r i e d out. In part t h i s i s due to the lack of a long-range plan of development or to the lack of understanding of the need to follow such a plan, i f one e x i s t s . I t i s also due to an under-standable lack of f a i t h i n the a b i l i t y of any public o f f i c i a l s , i ncluding—perhaps, e s p e c i a l l y — p l a n n e r s , to foresee the future with any reasonable degree of c e r t a i n t y . 56 In addition to the above problems there i s the question of the adequacy of present governmental machinery to carry out a comprehensive program of guiding urban development by the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of public land. Coughlin s t a t e s : In most r u r a l areas, no one governmental u n i t is:: charged with providing enough services so that i t could program the v a r i e t y of f a c i l i t i e s needed f o r and necessary to shape urban development. Although t h i s chapter has been concentrated on p u b l i c f a c i l i -t i e s and the e f f e c t they might have on other physical development i f they were programed i n a comprehensive manner with a; plan f o r the community i n mind, there are few governmental units with the powers necessary to carry out such a comprehensive programing. T y p i c a l l y , the State i s responsible f o r most major roads, the county f o r others, and the l o c a l munici-p a l i t y f o r s t i l l others. A school.commission i s responsible f o r schools. A s a n i t a t i o n commission i s responsible f o r sewerage and perhaps the water supply, a park board f o r parks and major re c r e a t i o n areas, the county f o r j a i l s and h o s p i t a l s , the municipality f o r an occasional public b u i l d i n g or other f a c i l i t y , American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s . , Planning Advisory Service, New Techniques f o r Shaping Urban  Expansion, Information Report No. 160 (Chicago: American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , J u ly, 1962), p. 8. 58 and special commissions for airport or port develop-ment. Ways must be found of integrating the govern-mental structure before i t can act effectively. 57 Admittedly the fragmentation of governmental bodies and agencies in Canada is not as great as in the United States; the problem is s t i l l , however, a major one. Written in 1941 and applying to cities only, the National Resources Planning Board writes: In some cities, adequate machinery may already exist; in most cities, certainly, the component parts of such machinery exist; there are lawyers to search t i t l e , there are assessors to appraise pro-perty, the city has sources of revenue with which to buy land, there are courts in which condemnation and foreclosure proceedings may be brought, and there are powers granted in the municipal charter. The problem is not so much setting up new administrative machinery as i t is revising existing machinery and reassembling the parts to do a larger job more effectively. 58 In conclusion the National Resources Planning Board states with regard to both the financial and administrative aspects of prior acquisition: the Land Committee believes that the establishment and prosecution of a progressive urban land policy i s not beyond the fiscal or administrative capacity of a well-run American city. 59 The above statement has to be qualified insofar as i t was p. 35. 57 Coughlin, op. ci t . , p. 468. 5ft National Resources Planning Board, op. c i t . , 5 9Ibid., p. 36. 59 written i n 1941 p r i o r to the great growth of the suburbs and thus does not take i n t o consideration the p l i g h t of the small municipal j u r i s d i c t i o n s now experiencing the bulk of urban growth. Current practice and p o l i c y f o r obtaining s i t e s  f o r p u b l i c land uses. In March, 1955 the Urban Land I n s t i t u t e c a r r i e d out a survey designed to determine current municipal p r a c t i c e and p o l i c y with regard to the i n s t a l l a t i o n of s t r e e t s and u t i l i t i e s and f o r the a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public use i n developing new r e s i d e n t i a l areas f o r those c i t i e s over 50,000 population i n the United S t a t e s . ^ A questionnaire was mailed to the d i r e c t o r s of 14-0 planning departments, i n four population groups above 50,000 population, of the 237 c i t i e s l i s t e d , i n the Municipal Year Book: 1954, The International C i t y Managers Association, Chicago. Questionnaires were also sent to 67 urban county planning commissions. Of the 140 c i t i e s surveyed 114 c i t i e s r e p l i e d g i v i n g a return of 81 per cent; 49 of the 67 urban county planning commissions r e p l i e d g i v i n g a r e t u r n i n t h i s area of 70 per cent. The findings revealed by the above survey are as Urban Land I n s t i t u t e , U t i l i t i e s and F a c i l i t i e s  f o r New R e s i d e n t i a l Development A Survey of Municipal  P o l i c y , Technical B u l l e t i n No. 27~IWashington: Urban Land. I n s t i t u t e , December, 1955), 100 pp. follows: In considering municipal p o l i c y f o r a c q u i s i t i o n of land f o r public park, playground, and school s i t e s as r e l a t e d to development of new r e s i d e n t i a l areas; no predominant p r a c t i c e i s evident. Only 10 of the Un-reportin g c i t i e s state p o s i t i v e reference to a com-prehensive plan f o r r e l a t i n g s i t e a c q u i s i t i o n to subd i v i s i o n proposals as development takes place. Among the urban counties, such practice i s r a r e — only two counties report using master planning studies to r e l a t e needs f o r public open space f a c i l i t i e s before new r e s i d e n t i a l areas develop. 61 In addi t i o n the te c h n i c a l b u l l e t i n s t a t e s : A p o l i c y of acquiring land f o r park, playground or school s i t e s i n advance of development i s not generally practiced among c i t i e s of the country over 50,000 population. Mostly, c i t i e s have no p o l i c y i n e f f e c t , or they r e l y on a combination of methods to obtain park and playground s i t e s . In acquiring school s i t e s , outright purchase by the municipality seems to be the standard procedure. Only a few c i t i e s make any mention of school s i t e a c q u i s i t i o n as a community f a c i l i t y to be considered along with other development matters. 62 Implications and r e l a t i o n of the Urban Land  I n s t i t u t e ' s Study to the t h e s i s . I t appears from t h i s study that no c i t i e s i n the United States use the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use as a technique to guide urban land development. Indeed i t i s also evident that very few c i t i e s use the method of a c q u i s i -t i o n as a means of acquiring s i t e s f o r public land use l e t alone r e l a t i n g them to a comprehensive community plan. I b i d . , p. 12. Ib i d . , p. 20. 61 The implications of the above are that, except i n the case of school s i t e s that were generally obtained by a c q u i s i t i o n , most m u n i c i p a l i t i e s would have to change t h e i r p o l i c i e s d r a s t i c a l l y with regard to acquiring land f o r p u b l i c s i t e s and with regard to the use of a compre-hensive community plan i n order to employ the technique under study i n t h i s t h e s i s . Summary and Relation of Part II to the Thesis Part II of Chapter I I can be summarized i n the following points: 1. The p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use i s an economically v i a b l e as well as a highly desirable proposition f o r most municipal govern-ments . 2. The f i n a n c i a l f e a s i b i l i t y of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses i s a s i g n i f i c a n t obstacle p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r the now-rural j u r i s -d i c t i o n s i n t o which urban development i s expanding. 3. The p o l i t i c a l habitude toward the a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use i s also a s i g n i f i c a n t obstacle. 4. The present machinery of government i s generally inadequate to carry out a comprehensive program of guiding urban development by the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use. A survey c a r r i e d out by the Urban Land I n s t i t u t e revealed that, probably due to the above four aspects, only a few c i t i e s i n the United States practise advanced a c q u i s i t i o n , and of these none do so with the purpose of guiding urban growth. 63 CHAPTER I I I A. METHODOLOGY FOR TESTING THE PROPOSED HYPOTHESIS With regard to the v e r i f i c a t i o n of the hypothesis i t i s highly desirable that, over and above a review of the l i t e r a t u r e , a methodology f o r t e s t i n g and v a l i d a t i n g the hypothesis be established and c a r r i e d out. This, however, was not possible here because of the following r e s t r i c t i o n s and l i m i t a t i o n s . As indicated e a r l i e r i t appears that no research studies have been c a r r i e d out to t e s t the s p e c i f i c hypo-thes i s and also i t appears that no m u n i c i p a l i t i e s have, u t i l i z e d the suggested technique to control urban growth. Indeed as was shown i n part II of Chapter I I , very few municipal governments employ the technique of p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan. A survey of the prac-t i c e s used, by the municipal governments i n the B r i t i s h Columbia Lower Mainland to acquire s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use d i s c l o s e d that the technique of p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n i s not used and has never been used c o n s i s t e n t l y as a method and has not become a stated p u b l i c p o l i c y . The above f a c t o r s thus precluded any v a l i d use of the ex post facto case study method as a methodology f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g the v a l i d i t y of the hypothesis. S i m i l a r l y the use of s t a t i s t i c a l methods to e s t a b l i s h c o r r e l a t i o n s was also precluded because of the many uncontrolled v a r i a b l e s (influences) operating within urban areas, and because a s i t u a t i o n could not be found within the munici-p a l i t i e s of the Lower Mainland of B r i t i s h Columbia that would permit a reasonably objective ex post facto t e s t i n g of the hypothesis. Notwithstanding the above l i m i t a t i o n s and r e s t r i c -t i ons i t was s t i l l deemed desirable to develop a methodology f o r t e s t i n g the hypothesis even though the l i m i t a t i o n s of time, resources, and circumstances would p r o h i b i t i t s t e s t i n g within the scope of t h i s t h e s i s . The development of a methodology was considered desirable as i t serves the following three purposes: (1) i t shows that the hypo-th e s i s as formulated can i n f a c t be tested i n a p r a c t i c a l and objective manner, (2) i t provides f u r t h e r i n s i g h t i n t o the complex r e l a t i o n s h i p s postulated i n the hypothesis, and (3) i t provides an opportunity to consider the range of problems, d i f f i c u l t i e s , i m p l i c a t i o n s , and work necessary to develop such a methodology. This chapter consists of three sections: (1) a consideration of some of the t h e o r e t i c a l concepts of experimentation; (2) a l i s t i n g of some of the major influences that would have to be considered i n the development of the methodology; and (3) the develop-ment of the methodology i t s e l f . I. THEORETICAL CONCEPTS 65 The hypothesis proposed i n t h i s t h e s i s represents a complex cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p between the l o c a t i o n of public land uses and the pattern of urban land development and, as a r e s u l t of t h i s , that a fu r t h e r cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use and the t o t a l pattern of urban land development that may subsequently emerge within the area i n which the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n occurs. Indeed the hypothesis implies that the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use w i l l i n f a c t i n c i t e or t r i g g e r development to occur i n that area. Chapin provides an i n s i g h t into what t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p may be and how i t works, i n his theory of urban growth and development as outlined i n Chapter I I , page 15. The cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p indicated, by the hypothesis can be c l a s s i f i e d as c o n s t i t u t i n g concomitant v a r i a t i o n . That i s , the l o c a t i o n of public land uses as determined by p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n i s the independent v a r i -able or causal f a c t o r , and the pattern of urban land development as desired i n the comprehensive community plan i s the dependent variable or assumed e f f e c t . A cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p can be stated to e x i s t i f : 1. The dependent variable appears i n more cases where the independent v a r i a b l e i s present, than 66 i n cases where i t i s absent. 2. Evidence i s given that the dependent v a r i a b l e did not occur before the independent v a r i a b l e . 3. Evidence i s given r u l i n g out a l l other f a c t o r s or influences as possible determining conditions of the dependent v a r i a b l e , i . e . , a l l other f a c t o r s are eliminated or c o n t r o l l e d . The t h i r d point i s of p a r t i c u l a r s i g n i f i c a n c e i n t h i s t h e s i s because of the many influences operating within an urban area that determine the t o t a l pattern of urban land development as shown i n the review of the l i t e r a t u r e , part I. Indeed the l o c a t i o n of public land uses as determined by p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n may be only a contributory condition. That i s , one that only increases the l i k e l i h o o d that a given phenomenon w i l l occur, but does not make i t c e r t a i n . This i s because i t i s only one of a number of fact o r s that together determine the occurrence of the phenomenon. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g to note that a f a c t o r operating as a contributory condition of a phenomenon under one set of conditions may not do so under another set of conditions." 1" This can be r e l a t e d back to points of the summary of part I, Chapter I I . In s e t t i n g up a methodology whereby the hypothesis "'"C. S e l l t i z , e t . a l . , Research Methods i n S o c i a l  Relations (Hew York: Henry Holt and Company Inc., 1931), p. 82. can be tested i t i s thus necessary, and indeed one of the most important aspects, i s to incorporate within i t the necessary system of control whereby as many of the other determining fac t o r s of the pattern of urban land develop-ment as possible can be eliminated or c o n t r o l l e d . By contr o l i s meant the manipulation of the experimental s i t u a t i o n i n such a way so as to demonstrate that a l l other f a c t o r s or va r i a b l e s that could have any possible e f f e c t on the dependent variable are e i t h e r not present or d i d not exert any s i g n i f i c a n t influence. I I . FACTORS AND VARIABLES TO BE CONSIDERED IN DEVELOPING THE METHODOLOGY The influences that w i l l have to be considered and co n t r o l l e d and thus those that w i l l influence the metho-dology and i t s o b j e c t i v i t y are e s s e n t i a l l y those influences discussed i n part I of Chapter I I . These influences thus" include those f a c t o r s or vari a b l e s that influence the pattern of urban land development as i d e n t i f i e d by Chapin, Wiley and Wolfe. The following i s a summary table of those f a c t o r s i d e n t i f i e d by Chapin, Wiley and Wolfe l i s t e d i n t h e i r hierarchy of importance, i . e . , t h e i r r e l a t i v e degree of influence on the t o t a l pattern of urban land development as determined by the studies of the above authors. 68 TABLE VII RELATIVE HIERARCHY OF THOSE FACTORS IDENTIFIED AS INFLUENCING THE PATTERN OF URBAN LAND DEVELOPMENT C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Factors or Independent Variables Natural or Physical Factors Location of Major Transportation Routes Topography (slopes over 15$). S o i l Conditions. Areas Subject to Flood. Water Areas and Supply. Travel Distance to High Value Corner. Distance to Work Areas, Excluding C.B.D. Intangible Values S i t e Amenities. Proximity to Prestige Areas, Non-white Areas and to Blighted Areas, Land Values. Tangible Values Governmental Regulations and P o l i c y i n c l u d i n g Location of Zoning and Subdivision Control J u r i s d i c t i o n . Public F a c i l i t i e s C i t y Sev/er Service. C i t y Water Service. A c c e s s i b i l i t y to Major Radial Highways. C i t y F i r e Protection Service. C i t y Schools. The above hierarchy of those f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the pattern of urban land development must be used, with caution. I t was derived from a few s p e c i f i c examples over l i m i t e d time periods. Within Chapin's framework, the above generalized hierarchy constitutes only those fa c t o r s supposedly functioning as priming actions ( i . e . , decisions as to the l o c a t i o n of the above f a c t o r s w i l l t r i g g e r and determine the res t of the land development pattern). They do not represent a l l the possible key fact o r s of land development but only those major ones that have been i d e n t i f i e d . Of note i s the f a c t that Wolfe's study i n d i c a t e s that there may be economic forces and fac t o r s that the developer considers over and above the fac t o r s l i s t e d i n the hierarchy. The e s s e n t i a l aspect of note i s that the above hierarchy of facto r s w i l l have to be taken i n t o account and c o n t r o l l e d f o r i n the methodology. The p o s i t i o n of publ i c land uses within the hierarchy (as few as theses are) would seem to in d i c a t e that they very well might function as a contributory condition. This being the case the necessity f o r keeping other influences to a minimum i s gr e a t l y increased i f an objective r e s u l t i s to be obtained. I I I . DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY E s s e n t i a l l y the methodology proposed consists of 70 e s t a b l i s h i n g a t e s t area and two or more co n t r o l areas. By means of the co n t r o l areas and by manipulating c e r t a i n conditions, f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the pattern of development, other than those being studied, can be c o n t r o l l e d . Within the t e s t area s i t e s f o r various public land uses should be acquired i n advance of development. Over a three to four year period the t e s t area w i l l be compared to the con t r o l areas. The comparison should be under-taken i n such a way so as to determine i f the municipality was more e f f e c t i v e i n guiding urban growth to achieve a desired pattern of urban land development or the f u l f i l -ment of a p a r t i c u l a r stated goal, i . e . , reduction of sprawl as a r e s u l t of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r pub l i c land use within the t e s t area as compared with the cont r o l areas. The t e s t should be documented through time to show i f the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use a c t u a l l y triggered and influenced land develop-ment within the t e s t area as compared with the control areas. At the same time the methodology can provide an estimation or i n d i c a t i o n of whether or not the provision of s i t e s f o r public land use was, i n the long run, more economical i n the t e s t area or i n the control areas. The object of the methodology i s to show, i n as objective a way as possible, that the three conditions necessary f o r cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p (as outlined 71 on page 65) e x i s t . The methodology i s outlined below i n greater d e t a i l and i n d i c a t e s i n greater depth how the various aspects noted above, i n a general manner, can be determined and measured. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the Test and Control Areas E s s e n t i a l l y the methodology consists of e s t a b l i s h i n g a t e s t area and two or more control areas, f o r r e l a t i v e comparison, i n an area of new suburban r e s i d e n t i a l land development on the f r i n g e of an urban area f a l l i n g within the same municipal governmental regulations. The t e s t and c o n t r o l areas should be part of the t o t a l non-urban f r i n g e area that i s presently experiencing various pressures f o r s u b d i v i s i o n and development. The t e s t andl control areas should be the same distance from the high value corner and from major work areas, i n the urban complex, i n terms of ease of access, cost of transpor-t a t i o n , and time. The t e s t and c o n t r o l areas should also have s i m i l a r land values. I t i s e s s e n t i a l that topo-graphic conditions within the t e s t and c o n t r o l areas, as well as i n surrounding areas, be s i m i l a r both with regard to factors determining ease of b u i l d i n g and to s i t e amenity. The conditions as stated above are s t i p u l a t e d f o r the reasons indicated below. An area of new suburban r e s i d e n t i a l land development was considered because: ( 1 ) the suburbs constitute the areas of greatest growth and expansion and are thus more amenable to experiment-a t i o n , (2) those f a c t o r s and variables i n f l u e n c i n g the pattern of land development can be kept to a minimum i n a r e s i d e n t i a l area, and (3) the l i n k between public land uses, e.g., schools, parks, f i r e h a l l s , etc., and r e s i -d e n t i a l development i s very strong i n suburban areas. The t e s t and control areas should f a l l w i t h i n the same municipal governmental j u r i s d i c t i o n i n order to ensure that influences from zoning, subdivision and planning regulations as w e l l as from municipal public p o l i c y w i l l a f f e c t the test and control areas to the same; degree and i n the same manner. This would also ensure that the same p o l i c y with regard to the provision of sewer and water f a c i l i t i e s would hold f o r both t e s t and. control areas. In a l i k e manner i f the te s t and control areas are the same distance from the high value corner and from major work areas, have s i m i l a r land values, and have s i m i l a r topography, then these f a c t o r or independent variab l e s i n f l u e n c i n g the pattern of urban land use and-development can also be accounted f o r and co n t r o l l e d by the use of the control areas. The t e s t and co n t r o l areas should be of s u f f i c i e n t s i z e so as to allow the determination of whether or not the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use i s an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide the t o t a l o v e r a l l d i r e c t i o n and density of the pattern of urban land development. The Problem of Measurement The problem may a r i s e wherein the municipality under study cannot finance the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use. This can be overcome i f we assume that f o r the purposes of t h i s study the s i t e s need not n e c e s s a r i l y be acquired by p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n i n s o f a r as i t i s assumed that the p r i n c i p a l concept involved i s that of pre-determining or p r e - f i x i n g , by some means, the l o c a t i o n i n space of public land uses p r i o r to devel-opment. Thus as long as i t can be established that the l o c a t i o n was pre-determined by some means i t does not n e c e s s a r i l y matter f o r the study whether or not the site-. was determined by p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n , homologation, r i g h t s of way or scenic easements. However, i f the above was followed i t would not allow the economic aspects of the problem to be studied. The other problem of measurement i s that of deter-mining a municipality's degree of effectiveness i n guiding urban growth to achieve a desired pattern of urban land development and thus of evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed technique. This could be done i n a number of ways: 1. I t i s assumed that the municipal governmental u n i t has prepared a comprehensive community plan, and i s a c t i v e l y pursuing the achievement of that plan. I t would thus be a r e l a t i v e l y easy matter to determine the degree of achievement of the plan by comparing the actual development i n terms of density, d i r e c t i o n of growth and other c r i t e r i a with the desired pattern of development. 2. The effectiveness of the municipal u n i t of govern-ment i n guiding urban growth could be measured: i n r e l a t i o n to the success of achieving a part-i c u l a r goal of the comprehensive community plan. For example, one of the goals commonly found i n community plans with regard to the pattern of land development i s that of eli m i n a t i n g urban sprawl. Thus a comparison of the measurement of the reduction of sprawl, expressed i n density, between the t e s t area and control areas could give an i n d i c a t i o n of the effectiveness of the municipality i n guiding urban land development as the r e s u l t of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use. The actual documentation could be f a c i l i t a t e d by the use of a i r photos. This could be done i n a way that would permit i t s c o r r e l a t i o n with census population and economic s t a t i s t i c s . The use of a i r photos would f a c i l i t a t e the regular systematic study of the l o c a t i o n , extent and pattern of new urban development. Procedure Within the t e s t area, s i t e s f o r various public land uses, p a r t i c u l a r l y schools, parks, and f i r e h a l l s , should be acquired i n advance of development i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan. Over a period of three to four years the pattern of development i n the t e s t and control areas should be documented. Special a t t e n t i o n should be given to the time and sequence of development. I f possible the underlying reasons governing the decisions of those developing the t e s t and control areas should be ascertained. Chapin states: i t would be important to make studies that tracer-l i n k e d events over time and e s t a b l i s h i n a time sequence the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between events that lead to a p a r t i c u l a r pattern of land development. 2 This would be done by mapping the development through time and interviewing the developers to study the impact or influence that various f a c t o r s , i n c l u d i n g public land uses,have on t h e i r decisions to develop a p a r t i c u l a r area. The study should conclude with an o v e r a l l assess-ment or evaluation of whether or not development was Chapin and Weiss (eds.), op. c i t . , p. 431 . guided or tended to be guided, with regard to d i r e c t i o n and density, to a greater degree i n the t e s t area as compared with the control areas. CHAPTER IV 77 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS A summary review of the t h e s i s and a disc u s s i o n of the l i m i t a t i o n s of the method used f o r v e r i f i c a t i o n of the hypothesis are given below. This i s followed by a review of a l t e r n a t i v e approaches f o r v e r i f i c a t i o n of the hypothesis, and suggestions f o r a d d i t i o n a l d i r e c t i o n s f o r needed i n v e s t i g a t i o n . The conclusions with regard to the v e r i f i c a t i o n of the hypothesis are then stated. Based on these conclusions a number of p o l i c i e s are proposed and recommendations are made i n regard to the problem of guiding urban land development. I. SUMMARY OP THE THESIS The thesis can perhaps best be summarized by an expanded r e i t e r a t i o n of the chapter summaries. A review of the l i t e r a t u r e and works of Chapin, Wiley, Wolfe, Coughlin, Davis, Glazer and Webster, i n Chapter I I , part I, with regard to the influence of publ i c land uses on the pattern of urban land develop-ment as i t has a bearing on the effectiveness of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use as a technique to guide urban development reveals the following aspects: 1. That there e x i s t s a hierarchy of fa c t o r s that 78 influences the pattern of land development within an urban area; and that p u b l i c land uses while c o n s t i t u t i n g a segment of t h i s hierarchy are not at the top of t h i s hierarchy but are situate d a f t e r the following f a c t o r s : natural or p h y s i c a l features; t r a v e l distance to high value corner and to work areasj c e r t a i n tangible and intangible values such as s i t e amenities, proximity to prestige areas, non-white areas and b l i g h t e d areas, governmental regulations, and land values; c e r t a i n economic forces and fa c t o r s ; and c i t y sewer and water s e r v i c e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . 2. That the degree of influence of the above factors i n c l u d i n g the influence of the l o c a t i o n of public land uses w i l l not only behave d i f f e r e n t l y i n d i f f e r e n t c i t i e s but w i l l behave d i f f e r e n t l y over time i n the same c i t y ( i . e . , the same f a c i l i t i e s i n d i f f e r e n t circumstances can have very d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s ) . 3. That the l o c a t i o n of s i t e s f o r d i f f e r e n t public land uses do not have the same degree of influence on the pattern of urban land development. That i s , there e x i s t s a hierarchy of influence within the broad category of pu b l i c land uses. The d i v i s i o n of t h i s hierarchy can be distinguished on the basis of whether the public land use i s a c i t y b u i l d i n g or priming action f a c i l i t y having a s i g n i f i c a n t influence, or whether i t i s a c i t y serving or secondary a c t i o n f a c i l i t y i n which case i t w i l l have l i t t l e or no influence on the pattern of urban land development. 4-. That where the l o c a t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land uses do have a s i g n i f i c a n t influence they w i l l tend to i n t e n s i f y the pattern of development. 5. That the a r e a l extent of the influence of the l o c a t i o n of a public land use i s v a r i a b l e i n d i f f e r e n t circumstances but that i t has been assumed to extend over the service area of that f a c i l i t y . 6. That the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses w i l l have the most s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s on guiding the development of r e s i d e n t i a l and commercial areas rather than on manufacturing and i n d u s t r i a l areas. 7. That i t i s very d i f f i c u l t to i s o l a t e and measure the influence of any one f a c t o r as the influence of each i s dependent upon, re i n f o r c e d or d i s s i -pated by the influence of the others. This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y true with regard to those f a c t o r s lin k e d to and dependent upon a coherent and consistent p u b l i c p o l i c y . 80 A review of the l i t e r a t u r e and works of the National Resources Planning Board, the American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , the Urban Land I n s t i t u t e , R a t c l i f f and Coughlin, i n Chapter I I , part I I , with regard to the economic, f i n a n c i a l , p o l i t i c a l , and administrative f e a s i b i l i t y of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use, f o r the majority of municipal governments, reveals the following points: 1. The p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land use i s an economically v i a b l e as well as a highly desirable proposition f o r most municipal govern-ments . 2. The f i n a n c i a l f e a s i b i l i t y of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses i s a s i g n i f i c a n t obstacle p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r the now-rural j u r i s d i c t i o n s i n t o which urban development i s expanding. 3. The p o l i t i c a l habitude toward the a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use i s also a s i g n i f i c a n t obstacle. 4. The present machinery of government i s generally inadequate to carry out a comprehensive program of guiding urban development by the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use. 5. A survey c a r r i e d out by the Urban Land I n s t i t u t e revealed that, probably due to the above four 81 aspects only a few c i t i e s i n the United States practise advanced a c q u i s i t i o n and of these none di d so with the purpose of guiding urban growth. The development of a methodology f o r t e s t i n g the hypothesis as outl i n e d i n Chapter I I I reveals the following aspects: 1. That the hypothesis represents a complex cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p i n v o l v i n g the i n t e r p l a y of a large number of v a r i a b l e s . 2. That the l o c a t i o n of public land uses: as determined by the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s probably acts as a contributory condition within t h i s complex cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p i n s o f a r as i t may be a condition that increases the l i k e l i h o o d that a given phenomenon w i l l occur, but does not make i t c e r t a i n . Thus because i t i s only one of a number of factors that together determine the occurrence of the phenomenon i t may operate as an independent v a r i a b l e or influence under one set of conditions but may not do so under another set of conditions. 3 . That there e x i s t s a hierarchy of influences determining the pattern of urban land develop-ment that w i l l have to be c o n t r o l l e d by expe r i -mental means i n order to t e s t the hypothesis. That the l o c a t i o n of p u b l i c land uses i s positioned near the bottom of t h i s hierarchy of f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g the pattern of urban land develop-ment. That the hypothesis can be tested by experimental means using t e s t and c o n t r o l areas, given the necessary time and resources. I I . LIMITATIONS OF THE THESIS The basic l i m i t a t i o n of the the s i s i s that i t i s r e s t r i c t e d to a review of the l i t e r a t u r e because of the f i v e reasons l i s t e d on page 8. This means that the hypothesis could not be independently and o b j e c t i v e l y tested by the author. The conclusions drawn with regard to the v a l i d i t y of the hypothesis are thus subject to the l i m i t a t i o n s that a review of the l i t e r a t u r e imposes. The basic l i m i t a t i o n imposed by a review of the l i t e r a t u r e i s that the basic information from which conclusions are drawn to v e r i f y the hypothesis i s subject to the biases and prejudices of the p a r t i c u l a r authors and researchers concerned. The works of the p a r t i c u l a r authors and researchers must be taken at face value; i t represents the opinions and convictions of the authors, without v e r i f i c a t i o n by supporting evidence. However, a review of the l i t e r a t u r e can be considered to be of 4. 5. 8 3 value with regard to v e r i f y i n g the hypothesis i n s o f a r as the opinions and judgements of those most f a m i l i a r with the problem constitute a reasonable basis upon which the v a l i d i t y of the hypothesis can be judged. In addition, within the review of the l i t e r a t u r e , the v e r i f i c a t i o n of the hypothesis also suffered:, because of the f a c t that u n t i l r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t l y the use of the proposed technique or s i m i l a r techniques has passedl v i r t u a l l y unnoticed. This has r e s u l t e d i n a s c a r c i t y of d e t a i l e d , objective information. Thus the e s s e n t i a l stronghold of a review of the l i t e r a t u r e , that of drawing on the opinions and convictions of many q u a l i f i e d s p e c i -a l i s t s and researchers to v a l i d a t e the hypothesis, was to some extent negated. The other basic l i m i t a t i o n i s that imposed by the hypothesis as formulated. I t i s considered that the hypothesis as formulated l i m i t s the the s i s i n s o f a r as i t i s too r e s t r i c t i v e . I t i s to a great extent the r e s t r i c t i v e nature of the hypothesis which excludes the v e r i f i c a t i o n by the case study method or by experimentation with the time and resources a v a i l a b l e . For instance l i m i t i n g the scope of the hypothesis so that redevelopment was excluded from the d e f i n i t i o n of development r e s t r i c t e d i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the f i e l d of urban renewal, and thus i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the influences that the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c use, as part of urban renewal schemes, may have 84-on the pattern of urban land use and thus on the pattern of urban land redevelopment, over and above j u s t the removal of blighted areas. (Urban redevelopment i s considered as only one of the three aspects of urban renewal; the other two being r e h a b i l i t a t i o n and conservation.) In retrospect i t i s suggested that an hypothesis of a more general nature and having a broader scope of opera-t i o n should have been formulated. Based on the experience gained from t h i s study the following new hypothesis can be formulated: that consistency of governmental action as expressed through p u b l i c p o l i c y , influences the pattern of urban land development and i s therefore an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide urban land development. (Development i n t h i s sense i n c l u d i n g within i t the concept of redevel-opment .) I I I . ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES AND ADDITIONAL AREAS FOR FURTHER INVESTIGATION Al t e r n a t i v e Approaches During the development of the the s i s i t became apparent that given s u f f i c i e n t time and resources a number of a l t e r n a t i v e approaches f o r v e r i f y i n g the hypothesis were po s s i b l e . V e r i f y i n g the hypothesis by considering f r i n g e  area development. I f one could f i n d the r i g h t s i t u a t i o n wherein a mun i c i p a l i t y had acquired s i t e s f o r public 85 buildings i n advance of development i t might be possible to carry out an ex post facto case study. The ex post facto case study would seek to analyze the sequence of events that combined to create the present pattern of land use and development. This would involve f i n d i n g , ident-i f y i n g and symbolically manipulating a l l the v a r i a b l e s possible by creating quasi-control areas i n order to have a reasonably objective experiment to determine and i d e n t i f y cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s . In addition, the method suggested i n Chapter I I I as well as the suggested ex post facto case study could be placed on a quantitative plane by the use of s t a t i s t i c a l methods to a r r i v e at c o r r e l a t i o n s and thus to i n f e r cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The establishment of the t e s t and c o n t r o l areas would provide the necessary manipulation of the var i a b l e s concerned. Structured questionnaires could be used and given by means of interviews. Various developers, both private and p u b l i c , operating within urban areas could be questioned as to the major f a c t o r s that conditioned and determined t h e i r decisions to b u i l d i n c e r t a i n areas. The r e s u l t s of these interviews could be analyzed by means of computers to a r r i v e at various conclusions regarding the s i g n i f i c a n c e of a given f a c t o r or combin-ations of facto r s i n d i f f e r e n t circumstances. 86 In addition the same technique of using interviews and questionnaires could be applied to planners and municipal administrators to assess t h e i r views and experience with regard to the f e a s i b i l i t y both i n regard to the guidance of the pattern of urban land development by means of the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses and i n regard to the economic, f i n a n c i a l and administrative f e a s i b i l i t y of p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n . V e r i f y i n g the hypothesis by considering c e n t r a l  area redevelopment. This t h e s i s has been s o l e l y concerned with v e r i f y i n g the hypothesis i n r e l a t i o n to urban f r i n g e development. I t seems j u s t as p l a u s i b l e that the basic concept, i . e . , that the l o c a t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c land uses influences the t o t a l pattern of urban land use and that the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r pu b l i c use i s therefore an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide the pattern of urban land development, can be applied equally as well to urban redevelopment. I f t h i s i s true, then i t provides an a d d i t i o n a l approach whereby the concept under discussion i n t h i s t h e s i s can be v e r i f i e d . For instance, t h i s concept i s being applied i n a proposed urban redevelopment scheme f o r a c i v i c centre i n Edmonton, Alberta. The p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r pub l i c use as part of the redevelopment scheme has, i n ad d i t i o n to i t s basic aim of redevelopment, the aim of 87 i n f l u e n c i n g and guiding the pattern of urban redevelopment within the en t i r e c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t . Over and above j u s t the aim of redevelopment the proposed scheme i n conjunction with the General Plan f o r the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t included the following aims: 1. To strengthen the e x i s t i n g downtown r e t a i l a c t i v i t y and encourage i t s expansion. 2. To r e a l i z e the f u l l p o t e n t i a l f o r commercial development within a framework of ordered growth. 3. To create a dynamic centre, g i v i n g form to the c i t y and a r i c h e r l i f e to i t s c i t i z e n s . 4. To stop the westward expansion [of the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t ] by g i v i n g firms r e a l opportunity f o r development to develop i n the eastern s e c t i o n of the c i t y , near the C i v i c Centre area. 1 One ought to be able to v e r i f y the hypothesis as i t applies to redevelopment by applying a modified form of the proposed methodology as outl i n e d i n Chapter I I I or by applying any of the suggested a l t e r n a t i v e approaches. The advantage of using redevelopment schemes to t e s t the basic concept or hypothesis under consideration i n t h i s t h e s i s i s that i n the f i e l d of urban renewal numerous examples e x i s t wherein municipal governments have employed p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c use as a technique. to guide urban development and growth. News item covering the Webb and Knapp Scheme i n the Edmonton Journal, March 22, 1962, p. 5. 88 A d d i t i o n a l Areas For Further Research and Study Throughout the the s i s i t became apparent that because the subject or technique under study i s a r e l a -t i v e l y new concept there e x i s t a number of broad areas f o r f u r t h e r study and research needed i n order to obtain a greater i n s i g h t i n t o , and an understanding of, the complex f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x i s t i n g between the pattern of urban land development and the f a c t o r s or v a r i a b l e s that determine or influence i t . For example, i f the l o c a t i o n of pu b l i c land uses i s assumed to operate as a contributory condition as indicated i n point two of the f i n a l summary then i t would be very u s e f u l and indeed e s s e n t i a l to determine the a l t e r n a t i v e conditions under which the p a r t i c u l a r c o n t r i -butory condition; i . e . , the l o c a t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land uses, would make the occurrence of the phenomenon more l i k e l y ; the phenomenon being the priming a c t i o n or t r i g g e r i n g of development and thus the guidance of development by the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r public land use. Addi t i o n a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s needed with regard to the t o t a l sum of influences or va r i a b l e s determining the pattern of urban land development. In additi o n to t h i s , work should be concentrated on determining the t o t a l combination of the Influence of pu b l i c p o l i c y with regard 89 t o the p r o v i s i o n of a l l s e r v i c e s and f a c i l i t i e s , regu-l a t o r y measures and the cumulative impact o f i n d i v i d u a l development d e c i s i o n (both p u b l i c and p r i v a t e ) on the p a t t e r n o f urban l a n d development. Research should a l s o be undertaken and i s needed t o determine the method, sequence of development and procedure necessary t o use t h i s i n f l u e n c e as a means of g u i d i n g urban growth. As i n d i c a t e d e a r l i e r an a d d i t i o n a l area f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h and study would be i n the t e s t i n g of the hypothesis as i t a p p l i e d t o urban redevelopment. The p r i n c i p l e aim of the r e s e a r c h should be t o a s c e r t a i n the value and e f f e c -t i v e n e s s o f redevelopment as a technique t o guide the p a t t e r n of urban l a n d redevelopment over and above j u s t the e l i m i n a t i o n of b l i g h t e d areas. IV. CONCLUSION As a r e s u l t of the f o l l o w i n g two l i m i t a t i o n s : 1. The above l i m i t a t i o n s w i t h regard t o the n e c e s s i t y of having t o r e l y on a review of the l i t e r a t u r e t o v e r i f y the hy p o t h e s i s , and 2. The l i m i t a t i o n s of t h a t method as w e l l as the extent and nature of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e , and i n c o n s i d e r i n g these l i m i t a t i o n s as: w e l l as c o n s i d e r i n g the p o i n t s l i s t e d i n the f i n a l summary i t i s concluded t h a t the v a l i d i t y o f the hypothesis t h a t the l o c a t i o n o f s i t e s f o r p u b l i c l a n d uses i n f l u e n c e s the t o t a l p a t t e r n of urban land! use and development and that the p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c use i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan, i s therefore an e f f e c t i v e technique to guide the pattern of urban land develop-ment, could not be substantiated a f f i r m a t i v e l y . Based on experience gained from the study consideration would be given to using the hypothesis as formulated i n the se c t i o n on l i m i t a t i o n s page 84. This hypothesis would not be as r e s t r i c t i v e as the one used and thus could be more r e a d i l y v e r i f i e d , and a p o s i t i v e or negative conclusion a r r i v e d at. Consideration should also be given to the a p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s hypo-t h e s i s , as well as the o r i g i n a l hypothesis, to the f i e l d of urban redevelopment. V. FORMULATION OF POLICIES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE GUIDANCE OF URBAN GROWTH BASED ON THE CONCLUSION I t i s d i f f i c u l t to formulate p o l i c i e s and recom-mendations based on a conclusion wherein the hypothesis i s n e i t h e r confirmed or r e j e c t e d . However, t h i s d i f f i c u l t y can be overcome to some degree by f a l l i n g back on a p a r t i c u l a r concept presented by both Chapin and Coughlin and by suggesting the a p p l i c a t i o n of the hypothesis to the f i e l d of urban redevelopment. 91 The f i r s t major recommendation i s the concept of not j u s t using the l o c a t i o n of s i t e s f o r p u b l i c use as determined by p r i o r a c q u i s i t i o n but of u t i l i z i n g the f u l l range of public p o l i c y decisions as the technique to guide the pattern of urban land development. This would include decisions with regard to the l o c a t i o n of a c i t y ' s roads, water and sewer l i n e s , schools, parks and other public land uses; and with regard to the use of zoning and sub-d i v i s i o n regulations to r e i n f o r c e the other decisions. This concept has been emphasized on many occasions by Chapin and Coughlin. (See quotations on pages 28, 29, 30 and 44- of t h i s t h e s i s . ) In the l i g h t of the above i t i s recommended there-fore that municipal governments should be made more aware of the p o t e n t i a l i t i e s that consistency of a c t i o n , with regard to c e r t a i n key public p o l i c i e s , can have on the pattern of urban land development. I t i s f u r t h e r recommended that once m u n i c i p a l i t i e s are aware of the im p l i c a t i o n of pu b l i c p o l i c y and how i t may influence urban development that they should use t h i s concept as a t o o l or technique to: 1. Aid them i n the process of d e c i s i o n making, as the ra m i f i c a t i o n s and! consequences of c e r t a i n courses of ac t i o n can be evaluated as to t h e i r probable influence on land.development i f the municipality i s consistent i n i t s public 92 p o l i c i e s that deal with urban development. 2. Aid them i n guiding urban growth so as to achieve a desired pattern of urban land development, that i s , they should so execute t h e i r public p o l i c y decisions that these decisions w i l l complement and r e i n f o r c e each other and so tend to produce the desired pattern of development. The second, major recommendation i s the a p p l i c a t i o n of the hypothesis and i t s i m p l i c a t i o n s , by municipal governments, to the f i e l d of urban redevelopment. I f the hypothesis can apply equally as w e l l to urban redevelop-ment then redevelopment within our urban areas should not be simply viewed as a means to eliminate b l i g h t e d areas but as a technique, i n r e l a t i o n to a comprehensive community plan, to guide the pattern of urban land redevelopment. 93 BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY 94 A. BOOKS Chapin, P. Stuart, J r . Urban Land Use Planning. Second e d i t i o n . Urbana: U n i v e r s i t y of I l l i n o i s Press, 1965. 498 pp. Chapin, P. 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New York: Harper and Brothers, 1958. 572 pp. B. ARTICLES AND PERIODICALS Chapin, F. Stuart, J r . "Taking Stock of Techniques For Shaping Urban Growth," The Journal of the American  I n s t i t u t e of Planners, XXIX, No. 2 (May, 1963), pp. 76-87. Glazer, Nathan. "The School as an Instrument i n Planning," The Journal of the American I n s t i t u t e of Planners, XXV, No. 4 (November, 1959), PP. 191-196"! 95 Hansen, Walter G. "How A c c e s s i b i l i t y Shapes Land Use," The Journal of the American I n s t i t u t e of Planners, XXV\ No. 2 (May, 1959), pp. ? 3 - ? 6 . R a t c l i f f , Richard U. "The Dynamics of E f f i c i e n c y i n the Locational D i s t r i b u t i o n of Urban A c t i v i t i e s , " i n Mayer, Harold M. and Kohn, Clyde P. (eds.) Readings i n Urban Geography. Chicago: Un i v e r s i t y of Chicago Press, 1959. pp. 299-524-. Voorhees, Alan M. (Special Ed.), "Land Use and T r a f f i c Models: A Progress Report," The Journal of the  American I n s t i t u t e of Planners, XXV, No. 2 (May, 1959), PP. 55-104-. ~~* C. PUBLICATIONS OF GOVERNMENT AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , Planning Advisory Service. Planning Pays. Information Report No. 123. Chicago: American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , June, 1959. 28 pp. American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , Planning Advisory Service. New Techniques f o r Shaping Urban Expansion. Information Report No. 160. ""Chicago: American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , J u l y , 1962. 22 pp. Ci t y of Vancouver Planning Department. "A Memorandum of Suggestions," Founding Conference Report of the Canadian Council on Urban and Regional Research. Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , March, 1962. pp. 32-35. Coughlin, Robert E. "Programing Pu b l i c F a c i l i t i e s to Shape Community Growth," A Place to L i v e . The Yearbook of Agriculture 1963, The United States Department of Ag r i c u l t u r e . Washington: Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1963, pp. 460-468. Davis, Arthur A. "The Use and Values of Open Space," A Place to L i v e . The Yearbook of Agricu l t u r e 1963, The United States Department of Ag r i c u l t u r e . Washington: Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1963. PP. 330-336. 96 Goddard, Maurice K. "Land Acquisition By Public Agencies," A Place to Live. The Yearbook of Agriculture 1963, The United States Department of Agriculture* Washington: Government Printing Office, 1963. pp. 449-453. National Resources Planning Board. Public Land Acquisition  Part II: Urban Lands. Washington: Government" Printing Office, February, 1941. 38 pp. Urban Land Institute. U t i l i t i e s and F a c i l i t i e s for New  Residential Development. A Survey of Municipal" Policy. Technical Bulletin No. 27. Washington: Urban Land Institute, December, 1955« 100 PP« D. UNPUBLISHED MATERIAL The Corporation of the Township of Richmond Planning Department. "Financial Savings Obtainable by Controlled Development, with Richmond Examples." Richmond: Richmond Planning Department, about I960. (Mimeographed.) Hoppenfeld, Morton."The Provision of Community F a c i l i t i e s for a Rapidly Growing Small City." Unpublished Master's thesis, The University of California, Berkeley, 1939. 90 pp. Nelson, Marilyn L. "Factors Influencing Land Development Patterns: An Investigation of the Relationship between the Location of Residential Subdivisions, Major Highways, and Industries in Guilford County, North Carolina." Unpublished Master's thesis, The University of North Carolina, Chapel H i l l , 1959. 100 pp. Wiley, Stanley R. "The Effect of Limited Access Highways Upon Suburban Land Use: A Case Study of the Sunset Highway Seattle, Wash." Unpublished Master's thesis, The University of Washington, Seattle, 1958. 146 pp. Wolfe, Myer R. "Locational Factors Involved i n Suburban Land Development." Seattle: The University of Washington, July, 1961. 54 pp. (Mimeographed.) E. NEWSPAPERS The Edmonton Journal, March 22, 1962. 98 APPENDIX APPENDIX 99 I. San Diego, California — Savings on advance land  acquisition and street improvements. The estimated savings are believed to be conservative. The report i s limited to projects constructed during the f i s c a l years of 1952-53 to 1956-57 inconclusive. The following c r i t e r i a were used i n determining estimates: 1. In estimating the savings of acquired and protected" rights-of-way and s i t e s , a conservative value of bare land costs was used, less the original purchase price, except i n two instances where large buildings were pro-grammed and financed. 2. In computing right-of-way areas, only the additional rights-of-way over normal feeder streets were included. 3 . In estimating the savings i n construction costs on highways, the unit cost shown reflects the difference i n the construction cost of major streets or limited access highways and the construction cost of typical local streets necessary to serve the immediate needs of the area. The c i t y of San Diego, under i t s planning and capital improvements programs, has adopted the policy that a l l major streets and highways within subdivisions or other developments shall be jointly improved by the developer and the cit y . By contributing to the cost and completing these major improvements as areas develop, considerable; savings are made by obtaining lower bids for the added cit y portions. The developer's improvements are f u l l y u t i l i z e d to develop t r a f f i c a r t e r i a l s . Source: A l l data presented i n Appendix from American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , Planning Advisory Service, Planning Pays, Information Report No. 123 (Chicago: American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , June, 1959), PP. 17-28. SAVINGS ON LAND ACQUISITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL SITES AND OTHER USES SAN DIEGO Recreation sites Acres Value per acre Cost per acre Savings per acre Net savings 4 . 1 13.0 $20 , 000 6 , 000 $ 1 , 2 0 0 $20 , 000 4 ; 800 $82 , 000 6 2 , 4 00 5.2 1 .7 9.7 4 . 0 4 . 0 $110 front foot 50 front foot 6 ,000 4 , 0 0 0 4 , 0 0 0 4 , 0 0 0 5 ,000 1,500 1,500 1 ,200 4 8 , 0 0 0 4 4 , 1 2 0 6 , 000 4 , 0 0 0 2,500 2,500 3,800 249 ,700 75 ,000 58,200 69 , 6 00 1 0 , 2 0 0 1 0 , 0 0 0 15 ,200 . 4 Site .5 1 0 , 0 0 0 6 ,000 1 0 , 0 0 0 3 , 0 00 150 4 , 0 0 0 3 , 000 9,850 4 , 0 0 0 3 , 000 4 , 9 0 0 Site 1 2 , 0 0 0 5 ,ooo 7 ,000 7 ,000 80.0 4 , 0 0 0 10 3,990 319 , 200 Kellogg Park North Clairemont Beach Frontage La Jo l l a 2,270 ft, Bird Rock 1,500 ft, Linda Vista Southerest Lomita Village A l l i e d Gardens Oak Park Fire Stations Bay Park North Clairemont Montgomery Library Point Loma Public Works Chollas Total $970,000 H O O 101 Savings on Advance Acquisition of Rights-of-Way of Major Streets and Highways, Fis c a l Years 1952-53 to 1956-57 SAN DIEGO Rights-of-Way Length Ft. of Value Acres Savings Excess per Width Acre Clairemont Dr. 20, 400 40 »3, 000 18.8 $ 94,000 Clairemont Mesa Blvd. 10, 800 50 5, 000 12.4 62,000 Genesee: Linda Vista 3 , 400 130 6, 000 10.2 61,200 Genesee: Clairemont 7, 600 100 5 , 000 17.4 87,000 Balboa Ave. 8, 800 100 5, 000 20.1 100,500 Murray Ridge 4-, 400 40 5, 000 4 .0 20,000 Sandrock 2, 800 40 5, 000 2.6 13,000 Linda Vista 12, 400 40 7, 000 11.2 78,400 L.V. other subd. 1. 800 30 5 , 000 1.3 6,500 Waring Rd. 7, 600 40 5, 000 6.8 34,000 Potomac 3 , 900 20 1.8 10,800 University 3 , 200 80 13, 000 6.0 90,000 Mound Ave. 300 30 5, 000 .2 1,000 Highway 94 - - 4-, 200 15.0 63,000 Morena Blvd. 3, 900 120 3 , 000 15.9 47,700 102 II. Oak Park t Michigan — Savings resulting from advance  land acquisition. In 1951, a bond issue of $346,000 for park land acquisition was approved by the voters. Proposals were based on a master plan that showed future park needs. A comparison of land values for vacant land then and at the present time follows: A. Park site 1932-12.01 acres @ $ 3,236.52/acre est. 1959-12.01 acrea @ 15,000.00/acre B. Park site 1952- 8.88 acres @ 2,000.00/acre est. 1959- 8.88 acres @ 15,000.00/acre C. Park site 1952-40.21 acres @ 3,382.00/acre est. 1959-40.21 acres @ 15,000.00/acre D. Greenbelts 1952-1,622.54 L.P. •(l ) e s t . 1959-1,622.54 L.P. *(2)est. 1959-1,622.54 L.F. @ 25.00/L.F. @ 75.00/L.F. @ 400.00/L.F. •(est. #1) •(est. #2) * 38,870.60 180,150.00 141,279.40 17,760.00 1^3,200.00 115,440.00 136,015.00 601,800.00 465,785.00 40,565.00 121,690.50 649,016.00 81,125.50 608,451.00 *(1) I f property were sold for residential use '•(2) I f property were sold for commerical use, which would be the most logi c a l at present E. Greenbelt donations 1950-none •est.1959-9 acres $15,000.00/acre 155,000.00 135,000.00 •It i s d i f f i c u l t to assign a value for this property, as i n most cases i t Involves strips of land 20 to 80 feet i n depth between residential developments and industry or residential developments and major highways. The cost to the developer on a per acre basis would re f l e c t the above cost. These greenbelts are not part of the right-of-way but an additional dedication. Total cost for properties A through D $233,210.60 Present day value of properties A through D $ 996,275.50 1,523,601.00 Difference i n value of land A through D $ 763,064-. 90 1,290,390.40 •Value d i f f e r e n t i a l because of zoning This figure cannot be considered as net savings, as taxes for the period involved have not been deducted nor have some improvement costs. However, these costs would be a small percentage of the $12,000 to $15,000 increase i n land value over the past few years. P. School sites 1953-6.11 acres @ $ 5,885.59/acre $55,961.00 est. 1959-6.11 acres @ 15,000.00/acre 91,650.00 G. School sites 1953-9.27 acres @ $ 4,643.14/acre 43,042.00 est. 1959-9.27 acres @ 15,000.00/acre 139,050.00 55,689.00 96,008.00 104 III. Advance Acquisition of Land for Sites Cincinnati Park Board. The 1948 master plan included proposals for park sites to be retained or expanded and new ones to be acquired. Although the prices actually pjaid for selected sites are known, there i s some question as to how to measure the savings. One method i s to compare the purchase price with an estimated current value based on the potential of the site i n question and/or that of the land i n the immediate v i c i n i t y . However, i t i s l i k e l y that the Park Board would seldom, i f ever, buy at the higher figures based on other possible land uses. Data and estimatees along these lines were compiled, for the following sites: 2 a) McElvoy Park. Located at Daly and North Bend. Roads (College H i l l ) . This site of 24.9 acres, appraised at $90,000 i n 1949, was purchased for $40,000 ($1,600 per acre), thus making an i n i t i a l saving of $50,000. (Note: It was sold to the c i t y by elderly people who made the agreement on condition that they could continue to l i v e on the property u n t i l the time of their death.) Based on subdivision into medium-sized lots (7,000 sq. f t . ) at 5 lots per gross acre and assuming $3,000 per lot ($.43 per sq. f t . ) , the value of this land for residential purposes would be $373,000 ($15,000 per acre). b) Price H i l l Park. Located at Pehr Road and Del-ridge Avenue (.Price H i l l ) . This site of 37.5 acres was purchased recently i n several sections, at an over-all cost of $109,500 ($2,900 per acre). The estimated potential of this property, measured in a manner identical to item (a) above, i s $564,000 ($15,000 per acre). c) Drake Park. Located off Red Bank Road (Kennedy Heights). This site (an estate) became available to the Park Board through the process of subdivision investigation by the Planning Services Division of the Planning Com-mission. Covering an area of 76.1 acres, i t was purchased i n 1957 for $115,000 ($1,500 per acre). Information on costs from Superintendent, Park Board, City of Cincinnati; estimates on current value based on experience with typical developments. 105 Due to the irregular topography of the tract, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to determine i t s potential as residential land. However, assuming 2 lots per gross acre, 20,000 sq. f t . per l o t and $6,000 per l o t ($ .30 per sq. f t . ) , the landi would be valued at $912,000 ($12,000 per acre). d) Stanbery Park. Located off Oxford Lane (Mt. Washington). The original 23-acre section of this park was purchased in 1938 for $25,000 ($1,100 per acre). Recent additions totaling 48 acres were purchased i n 1955 for $67,500 ($1,400 per acre). There i s some doubt as to whether the recent addi-tions could be developed for residential use because of the extreme, rugged topography. A calculation based on assumptions identical to those made for item (c) above results i n a current valuation of $576,000 ($12,000 per acre). 2. Cincinnati Board of Education. A plan for schools, which came out of the Holy-Herrick report of 1945 (A Survey of the School Building Needs of Cincinnati, Ohio) was subsequently incorporated into the Cincinnati Master Plan of 1948. Several sites were purchased well in advance of need. Here again, the question arises as to the calcu-lation of savings, since current valuations would usually be prohibitive i n terms of the Board of Education's a b i l i t y to pay. Data on specific sites are as follows:^ a) New Woodward High School. Located at Reading Road and Seymour Avenue (Roselawn). The 32-acre site for this school was purchased i n 1946 for $110,500 ($3,500 per acre). It i s i n the immediate v i c i n i t y of the 218-unit Glen Meadows, the 1170-unit Swifton Village and 161-unit Colonial Village apartment projects, i n addition to the large Swifton Shopping Center. Although i t would be unlikely that the Woodward site ^Information on costs from Office of the Business Manager, Board of Education, Cincinnati; information on comparative value partly from Board of Education and partly from general experience. 106 could support a commercial use as intensive as the Swifton development, i t i s more than probable that the land would have a great value for other commercial or multi-family residential use. In any case, the board lat e r sought to purchase additional land adjoining this s i t e on Reading Road, at which time the realtor (Frederick A. Schmidt, Inc.) was quoting a price of $550 per front foot. Since the site i s roughly 1,000 feet by 1,4-00 feet, i t s 2,4-00 l i n e a l feet might be assumed to be worth about $1,520,000 ($4-1,000 per acre). Some distance eastward, at the corner of Seymour Avenue and Langdon Farm Road, the firm of Robert Hall Clothes was reported to have paid $18,000 an acre for commercial land. b) Madisonville Junior High School. Located at Red Bank and Madison Roads (Madisonville). This 25-acre site was purchased , part i n 1946 and part i n 1955» for $58,000 ($2,300 per acre). Assuming i t i s potentially developable for typical homes at 5 lots per acre, 7,000 sq. f t . per l o t and $3,000 per l o t ($.4-3 per sq. f t . ) , i t s value for residential use amounts to $375,000 ($15,000 per acre). c) Westwood (Gamble) Junior High School. Located on Westwood-Northern Boulevard (Westwood). This site of 24-.4- acres was purchased i n 1948-4-9 for $49,940 ($2,000 per acre). As potential residential lots with values calculated similar to item (b) above, i t s present worth i s estimated at $366,000 ($15,000 per acre). d) Central Vocational High School. Located at Ludlow Avenue and Central Parkway (Clifton). This site of 40.5 acres was purchased i n 1947 for $225,000 ($5,600 per acre). The land was once held by a Chicago firm for a potential housing project, an event which occurred 10 years before the site was acquired by the Board. Sales room and display businesses, motels and other commercial uses i n the v i c i n i t y (along Central Parkway) have reportedly been paying $9,000 per acre for land. 

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