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The growth and distribution of population in British Columbia, 1951-61 Welch, Ruth Lilian 1964

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THE GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1951-61 by RUTH LILIAN WELCH A . K. C. , B. Sc. Special, The University of London, 1962 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL F U L F I L M E N T OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE D E G R E E OF MASTER OF ARTS in the Department of Geography We accept this thesis as conforming io the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May, 1964 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of • British Columbia,, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study* I further agree that per-mission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It is understood that,copying or publi-cation of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission-Department of GEOGRAPHY The University of British Columbia, Vancouver 8? Canada ABSTRACT The growth of population was an outstanding feature of the economic and social development of British Columbia, between 1951 and 1961. The effects of this remarkable growth on the distribution of population, among the census subdivisions of the province, is the particular aspect selected for study. Changes in population distribution result from areal inequalities of the rate of population growth and decline. These differences can be analysed in terms of the varying contributions of the natural and migrational components of population change in each part of the province. The "explanation" of redistribution is thus to be found in the factors which influence the action of the components of population change. This apparently straightforward approach to the topic is beset by a number of problems. Some arise from the concepts, methodology and techniques of population studies in general, as they are applied to the data available for the census subdivisions of British Columbia. Changes in the boundaries of the areal units and in the definitions of statistical categories also create difficulties. The demographic basis for the growth of population in the ii province as a whole is examined in Chapter Three. Several trends produced a greater relative importance of natural increase as a source of population growth, but net migration was still, in the nineteen -fifties, the major component of change. Estimates of the natural and migrational components of population change in each census subdivision, and in certain cities and municipalities are provided. Migration was the primary cause of regional variations in the rate of population change, although natural increase was far from uniform, Several generic types of population change are identified, to demonstrate the demographic processes and causal factors at work. In Chapter Four the growth in each part of the province is set into perspective, by considering the distribution of the total provincial growth of population. In this way, the extent to which each component of change was responsible for the shifts in the distribution of population can be assessed. Migration was more important than natural increase as a mechanism of adjustment between the initial distribution of population and the changes in the factors which shape the distribution pattern. No violent shifts in the distribution of population among the census subdivisions resulted from the unevenness of the pattern of pop-ulation growth and decline. There were some changes, however, which iii were remarkable for a period as short as a decade. The Prince George-Cariboo region, the Peace River country^  and. certain parts of the "resource frontier" of the province emerged as new major concentrations of population. The proliferation of industries and services caused by developments on the frontier was reflected in the confirmation of the dominance of the Vancouver metropolitan area in the distribution pattern. Within this region there was, however, a strong centrifugal movement, which was repeated on a smaller scale in some of the urban areas in the Interior and on Vancouver Island. These distributional shifts had a significance in the life and landscape of the province which parallels the remarkable demographic changes taking place during the decade. But the legacy of the past combined with the magnitude of economic growth and the demographic response was so strong that the significance of redistribution during the nineteen-fifties may be ephemeral; of greater importance, for the future course of the evolution of the distribution of population in British Columbia, may be the essential stability of the initial pattern. iv A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S T h e a u t h o r i s i n d e b t e d to s e v e r a l o f f i c i a l s of the F e d e r a l a n d P r o v i n c i a l G o v e r n m e n t s ; L . W . H o l e ( D i v i s i o n of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a ) , A . H . L e N e v e u a n d M . E . F l e m i n g ( D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , O t t a w a ) , and R . H . K i n c a ^ d e ( D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , V a n c o u v e r ) , a l l of w h o m s u p p l i e d i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h has b e e n i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h i s t h e s i s . She i s a l s o g r a t e f u l to h e r t h e s i s a d v i s o r , D r . A . L . F a r l e y , to D r . J . R o s s M a c k a y , and to h e r f e l l o w g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s , f o r t h e i r h e l p f u l c o m m e n t s a n d a d v i c e . i x T A B L E OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i i T A B L E OF CONTENTS v LIST OF T A B L E S vi LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ix Chapter I. INTRODUCTION - PROBLEMS OF METHOD AND M A T E R I A L 1 II. THE GROWTH OF POPULATION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1951-61 20 III. THE A R E A L P A T T E R N OF POPULATION CHANGE 43 IV. THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION 71 Appendices A . S U P P L E M E N T A R Y TABLES 92 B. INDEX TO CENSUS SUBDIVISION AND MUNICIPALITIES 110 C. INTERCENSAL ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF BRITISH COLUMBIA 115 D. THE S T A B L E POPULATION 119 E . URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS 121 BIBLIOGRAPHY 124 v LIST OF T A B L E S Table Page 1. Immigrants intending to settle in British Columbia, 1951-61 23 2. Migration streams, 1951-61 33 3. Urban/Rural Structure of Population, Census Divisions, 1951, 1956, 1961 . 84 4. Distribution of the Urban and Rural Populations of British Columbia among the Census Divisions, 1951, 1956, 1961 86 5. Population Growth, British Columbia, 1871-1961 . . . 92 6. Intercensal Estimates of Population, British Columbia, 1951-61 93 7. Population Growth, British Columbia, 1951-61 . . . . 94 8. Capital Investment, Canada and British Columbia, 96 1951-61 96 9. Percentage Distribution of Births by Order, British Columbia, 1952-61 97 10. Age-Sex Specific Death Rates, British Columbia, 1951, 1956, 1961 98 11. Distribution of Population, 1951 and 1961 :.99 12. Estimates of the Components of Population Change, 1951-61, Census Subdivisions, Municipalities, and Unorganized Areas 103 13. Distribution of Population Change, 1951-61, Census Subdivisions, Municipalities, and Unorganized Areas 108 vi LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure To follow page 1. Population Distribution, 1951 (frontpiece) facing p. i 2. Census Subdivisions of South East British Columbia, 1951, 1956 and 1961 11 3. Population Growth, 1871-1961, British Columbia . . . . 21 4. Vital Rates, 1951-61, British Columbia 221 5. Components of Population Change, 1951-61, British Columbia 22 6. Sources of Net Migration 24 7. Capital Investment 25 8. Age-Sex Structure 37 9. Rates of Population Change, Census Subdivisions . . . 44 10. A Typology of Population Change 49 11. Types of Population Change, Census Subdivisions (map) 49 12. Population Change Types 1 and 2, Unorganized Areas and Municipalities 51 13. Population Change, Type 3, Unorganized Areas and Municipalities 56 14. Population Change, Type 4, Unorganized Areas and Municipalities 59 15. Types of Population Change, Census Subdivisions (scatter diagram) 61 16. Types of Population Change, Unorganized Areas . . . . 61 vii 17. Types of Population Change, Municipalities 61 18. Age-Sex Structure: Changes, 1951-61, Census Divisions . 65 19. Distribution of Total Change 73 20. Distribution of Total Change, Census Subdivisions . . . . 73 21. Distribution of Natural Increase 74 22. Distribution of Natural Increase, Census Subdivisions . . 74 23. Distribution of Net Migration 75 24. Distribution of Net Migration, Census Subdivisions . . . . 75 25. Redistribution of Population, Census Subdivisions 78 26. Lorenz Curves 82 27. Changes in Percentage Distribution of Population, 1951-61, Census Subdivisions 89 28. Key to Census Subdivisions, 1956 and 1961 110 29. Key to Municipalities I l l viii F i g . 1 ( F r o n t i s p i e c e ) Source: B.C. A t l a s of Resources T P l a t e XVIII . CHAPTER. ONE INTRODUCTION - PROBLEMS O F METHOD AND MATERIAL The remarkable growth of population in British Columbia during the nineteen-fifties was a phenomenon of which most citizens were aware. It was something in which many of them were personally involved, and all could observe its manifestations in the landscape. It affected the work and leisure, the standard of living, and the social circumstances of all Brit ish Columbians. It will have demographic''' and economic repercussions for many years to come. There was another aspect of this growth which had particular interest for the geographer. What were the regional patterns of population growth and decline, and of the components, natural and migrational change? What was the effect of differential change on the distribution of population in the province? The decade of the nineteen-fifties was but the latest phase in the continuing evolution 1. In this thesis, the term "demographic" is used to refer to the processes of population change - fertility, mortality, and migration; it is not used in the general sense of anything that pertains to population as a whole. - 1 -of the pattern of population distribution in British Columbia, and a study of the changes during one stage of that evolution may point to some of the factors which have been shaping the pattern. Population growth and redistribution is a topic which involves intricate temporal and areal variations, and which has many ramifications and implications throughout the social sciences. At the outset of a study of one particular aspect of population change, it is therefore helpful to state the content, approach and methodology of the work being done. An account of the considerations behind the selection of the method and techniques of the present study provides a useful context for the substantive material which follows. A discussion of the ways in which the available data are utilized demonstrates the problems and limitations encountered in the course of the research. The spatial and temporal limits of the study are the boundaries of British Columbia, and the 1951 and 1961 Census dates. Although both these boundaries are somewhat arbitrary, a compromise between reality and convenience must be made. This delimitation of the subject matter is probably as satisfactory as any made for similar, practical reasons. The use of this particular framework may also give the results oftthis some general interest and applicability. The chosen limits of the field of study are not without some substantive significance. There was some unity of common experience - 3 -and reaction in British Columbia during the nineteen-fifties, at least with respect to those social and economic factors which were the strongest influences on population change and redistribution. The shifts of the developing resource frontier to the Central and Northern regions, the stagnation of the Southern Interior and the major part of the Coast, and the focussing of the cultural, social and commercial life of the province on the metropolitan South-west, were not isolated and independent events but were connected with each other in origin and were mutually interacting. There was also some coherence and distinctiveness of the time period. 1951 marked the calming of the turbulence of the immediate post-war period, and the establishment and revival of economic and demographic trends with more lasting significance. There was a peak in the rates of population and economic growth in 1957, followed by a slack period, which was perhaps the natural complement of the exuberance of the earlier years. By 1961, a new phase was beginning: the mood of optimism returned, and new elements entered the economic scene, although their demographic effects were not yet fully established as trends. Thus the 1951-61 period was one of burgeoning economic activity and demographic response, and then retrenehment, the whole decade being preceded and followed by phases of indeterminate or transitional nature. The differences between the economic and demographic pictures - 4 -of 1951 and 1961 can therefore be seen as parts of long-term trends, while the fluctuations within the decade were more ephemeral. For this reason, this thesis concentrates on the material of the 1951 and 1961 Censuses (and on the Vital Statistics totals for the whole decade), rather than taking the 1956 Census material as an intermediate stage of equal value. ^  The growth of the economy of the province of British Columbia, and social change during the decade, both find their "essential 3 geographical expression" in the distribution of population, and in the shifts in that pattern during the decade of the nineteen-fifties. The redistribution of population is the phenomenon which this thesis seeks to elucidate. The areal framework used for the analysis of population change and redistribution is the system of ten divisions and forty-six sub-divisions, defined by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics for the 1956 and 4 1961 Censuses. Some extra detail is given for certain incorporated 2. The content of the 1956 Census is not as detailed, areally or topically, as the 1951 and 1961 data. For this reason, it is less useful to this thesis than the decennial Censuses. However, the 1956 enumeration provided a valuable base to which the Dominion Bureau of Statistics could tie the intercensal estimates of population, (see Appendix C). 3. David J. M. Hooson, "The Distribution of Population as the Essential Geographical Expression; " Canadi an Geographer, V, No.. 17 (November, I960), 10.-20. 4. See Appendix B; the differences between the 1951 system of census subdivisions and the current system are discussed below, p. 11. - 5 -places, but the census subdivisions are the smallest areal units for which there is complete coverage of the province, in the published sources of statistical information. Although there is considerable variation in the size of these units, and although their boundaries are somewhat arbitrary, they do reflect quite well the regionalization of British Columbia, and the system provides a useful and manageable framework for a study of this kind. The growth of population is described and analysed within these dimensions of time and space. Firstly, the demographic history of British Columbia, taken as a single unit, in the 1951 to 1961 period, is discussed. The growth at the provincial level raises several questions and contains certain implications for the pattern of population change in the census subdivisions. Not all the elements of this pattern can be analysed to the depth that is possible for the province as a whole, because only the aggregate data have sufficient topical detail for demographic analysis to be made. The contents of Chapter Two, therefore, provide a useful context for the discussion of the areal' patterns of population change. 5. That is, the cities, towns, villages, and district municipalities for which Vital Statistics were regularly published from 1951 to 1961, inclusive. To supplement the published figures, data on the natural increase in certain district municipalities, for the early part of the decade, were obtained from the Division of Vital Statistics, Victoria. The author is grateful to that department for supplying this information. The places for which estimates of the components of population change could be prepared are those shown in Appendix B. - 6 -Complete explanation of the growth and redistribution of population in an area as large as British Columbia is, of course, impossible even for a period as short as a decade. The first step towards an understanding of the mechanism of change in the size and distribution of population can be achieved, however, through an examination of natural increase and net migration, in each part of the province. Where vital statistics are available, the reproductive component of population change is easily found by comparing the number of births with the number of deaths in eachaarea, for a given period of time. ^  (Both births and deaths should be tabulated by place of usual residence, and not by place of occurrence';,) 6. Other methods of estimating natural increase can be used where it is not possible or practicable to use vital statistics, for instance, the "census survival ratio" method. These alternatives rely on the use of parameters for fertility and mortality which are derived from aggregate data for the whole area. They do not take into account the areal variations in age-specific fertility and mortality which are important determinants of natural increase in each area. If vital statistics are used, both areal and temporal variations in these qualities are taken into account in the estimate of natural increase, because recorded data and not an assumed pattern of behaviour are used to obtain the estimates. The use of vital statistics has a further advantage - the arithmetic procedures are more simple and less time-consuming than the calculations required for the alternative methods, an important consideration when there is a large number of areal units in the universe. See A. J. Jaffe, Handbook of Statistical Methods for Demographers, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (U.S. Government Printing Office, 1951). - 7 -Net migration is represented by the residual left after reproductive change is removed from overall population growth or decline. Neither the separate streams of in- or out-migration, nor the gross volume of migration can be measured, but merely the net gains and losses of population which are attributable to net migration. Ideally, the four subcomponents of births, deaths, in-migration and out-migration, should be examined separately. In practice they have to be treated as the positive and negative values of natural and o Q migrational change, at least for the census subdivisions. 7. In this study, the migration residuals can be supplemented by data from the Censuses and from the records of the Department of Citizenship and Immigration. These cannot, however, be used as primary sources of evidence for migration streams within the province, since only political entities are used to identify birthplace in these sources. But for inter provincial, or international migration, this type of data can be used quite successfully. See, for instance, Everett S. Lee et al. , Population Redistribution and Economic  Growth, United States, 1870-1950. (Philadelphia: American Philosophical Society, 1957 and I960). 8. Births and deaths are separately recorded for the Census subdivisions of British Columbia. The "residual method", however, provides estimates of net migrational change and not of in- and out-migration separately. It is illogical to treat one component in detail when only the net values of the other main components can be examined. The discussion is therefore restricted to the net natural and migrational gains and losses of population. It is only possible to study all four elements separately, where a continuous population register is kept. That is, where all births, deaths and changes of residence are recorded for each area! unit. Sweden is one of the few countries where such a register is kept. This has facilitated the production of a number of detailed and sophisticated studies of migration, including some significant empirical and methodological contributions to population geography. See,. for instance, Dorothy Swaine Thomas, Social and Economic Aspects of  Swedish Population Movements, 1750-1930 (New York: Macmillan Co. , 1941); David Hannerberg et al. (eds. ), Migration in Sweden continued. , . - 8 -The use of the "vital statistics-residual" method of estimating the components of population change depends on the availability of Census enumerations or accurate enumerations of the initial and terminal populations of each areal unit, so that overall change can be measured. Census data on the population of the census subdivisions, and the official estimates of the provincial population for intercensal years were used for this purpose. In theory, this method can provide an accurate measure of each of the components of population change in each areal unit. In practice, however, several factors reduce the status of the residuals to estimates.1"'"' (f'Lund Studies in Geography, " Series B, 13} Lund, Sweden: C. W.K. Gleerup, 195^ . 9. The Dominion Bureau of Statistics attempts to allow for in- and out-migration when preparing the intercensal estimates of population for the province. Immigration and family allowance data are used, and there is a standard procedure for combining these and for allowing for out-migration and for error. Migration estimates are added to the recorded natural increase for each province to obtain the quarterly and annual estimates of overall population growth (Isee Appendix C). 10. Daniel O. Price, "Examination of two sources of Error in the Estimation of Net Internal Migration, " Journal of the American  Statistical Association, L, No. 271, (September, 1955), 689-700; C. Horace Hamilton, "Some Problems of Method in Internal Migration Research,"; Population Index, XXIV, No. 4 (October, 1961), 297-307J J. S. Siegel and C. Horace Hamilton, "Some Considerations in the Use of the Residual Method of Estimating Net Migration;!} Journal of the  American Statistical Association, XL VII, No. 259 (September, 1952), 475-500? Kenneth Buckley, "Historical Estimates of Net Migration in Canada, " Canadian Political Science Association Conference on Stat-istics, I960, ed. E. F. Beach and S. C. Weldon (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1962), pp. 1-28; Nathan Keyfitz, "The Growth of the Canadian Population, " Population Studies, IV, No. 1 (October, 1961), 297-307. - 9 -The registration of births and deaths is seldom perfectly accurate, and all errors are transferred directly to the net migration residual. There are delays in registration, and the place of residence, which is the basis for tabulation, may be stated incorrectly. The quality of the registration varies locally, with the nature of settlement, the different administrative arrangements, and with the ability and the willingness of the population to co-operate with the local registration officials. In British Columbia the registration of births and deaths is said to be "virtually complete".'''''' The registrations for the Indians in the more remote parts of the province, and for the Sons of Freedom Doukhobors present the most difficult problems. Errors in the registrations for these groups would have a very slight effect on the total numbers of births and deaths in the province, although the totals for certain regions might be more seriously distorted. The provincial Bureau of Vital Statistics claims that the areal coverage and the accuracy of registration have been improved during the decade. This is a mixed blessing, since there is no constant factor for the correction of registrations. In addition, a single factor applied to all parts of the province would create more errors than it would remove. The validity of the estimates of the components of population change depends, of course, on the accuracy of the census enumerations 11. British Columbia, Vital Statistics . . ., vol. LXXXV (Victoria: Queen's Printer, 1956). - 10 -and the population estimates from which the overall changes in each census subdivision and in the province as a whole are measured (see Appendix C). If the population data and the vital statistics do not have the same degree of accuracy, areal and temporal, then errors from this source are introduced into the net migration residual. With improvement of the techniques of census-taking and of making the intercensal estimates of the provincial population, the assumption of uniform accuracy is not necessarily valid. Again, no allowance is made for this potential source of error, since it is extremely difficult to find valid correction factors for each area. In fact the errors involved are probably negligible in comparison with the total growth of population in each area. The same clearly defined system of areal units should be used for the tabulation of the census and the vital statistics data. In British Columbia, the census subdivisions are the basic units used for the publication of both types of material, although some data are available only for the ten census divisions, while others are published for certain municipalities, as well as the subdivisions. There were some changes in the boundaries of incorporated places during the decade (see Appendix B). These changes affected the census population totals, and the registrations of births and deaths, and therefore distorted the estimates of the components of population change in certain areas. These errors are probably fairly small, and must be accepted among the frustrations of "all who deal with ready-made d c l t c l • • • • • In 1956 the Dominion Bureau of Statistics delimited new census subdivisions in' the South-west of British Columbia, inside divisions 4 and 5. (The boundaries of census subdivisions in other parts of the province were not changed,.) Figure 2 illustrates these changes. Division 4, the Lower Mainland and adjacent regions, was formerly-split into two subdivisions; in the new system, 4A was replaced by 4A, 4D, and 4E, while 4B became 4B and 4C. There are still six subdivisions in census division 5, Vancouver Island, but apart from 5D, which is now 5E, and 5F, which retains its old title, the new areas are not at all comparable to the old, whether taken alone or in combination (see Appendix B). Old system New system 4A . . . Lower Fraser Valley 4A . . Harrison Lake 4B . . . Vancouver - Howe Sound 4B . . Howe Sound , 4C . . Vancouver . 4D . . New Westminster ' 4E . » . Chilliwack 5A . . . Vancouver Island South 5A . • . Victoria 5B . . . Saltspring and Islands 5B . . Duncan 5C . . . Alberni - Texada 5C . . Nanaimo continued . . 12. Everett S. Lee et al., Population Redistribution and Economic  Growth, United States, 1870-1950, Vol. I: Methodological  Considerations and Reference Tables (Philadelphia: American Philosophical Society, 1957), p. 1. CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS OF SOUTH EAST F i g . 2 - 12 -Old System New System 5D . . . Courtenay - Sayward 5D . . . Port Alberni 5E . . . Clayuquot - Barclay Sound 5E . . . Courtenay 5F . . . Vancouver Island North 5F . . . Vancouver Island North. The 1951 Census results (population totals only) were retabulated by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics for the new subdivisions; these data are used in this thesis. For the years 1951-6 inclusive, the published Vital Statistics refer to the old areas, and there has been no retabulation. Thus it is necessary to find a method of transforming the data on births and deaths for the old subdivisions to fit the new frame work-Fortunately the majority of the population of these areas resides in organized territory for which the annual natural increases are known. Thus most of the births and deaths for the old subdivisions can be directly allotted to the new areas. After this has been done, there are still a few births and deaths for the unorganized parts of the old census subdivisions which must be allotted to the new areas. Various methods of distributing them were tried out experimentally and it was found that the most simple and feasible method is to allocate the natural increases according to the size of the unorganized population of each subdivision. For instance, the unorganized population of Vancouver Island is taken as 100%, and the number of births among the unorganized population of that division in any one year is also valued at 100%. - 13 -If 32% of the unorganized population of the Island is found in a certain subdivision in that year, then 32% of the births are allotted to that area. This procedure is repeated for births and deaths, for each census subdivision within divisions 4 and 5, for each year in the 1951-6 period. The derived estimates of the natural increase for that year for the unorganized population of each subdivision are then added to the "known" amounts, for the unorganized areas, and the totals for the decade are 13 found. The use of the pattern of population distribution to find the amount of natural increase implies that fertility and mortality, and the age structure of the unorganized population were areally and temporally invariant. The error introduced with this working assumption is small in comparison with the total number of births and deaths for the whole decade, in the census subdivisions, when the organized and the unorganized populations are added together , , The vital statistics registrations and the data on total population change should refer to exactly the same time period. The 1951 and the 1961 Censuses were taken on June 1st of the respective years, while the Vital Statistics for the census subdivisions and the municipalities are 14 published for calendar years only. 13. The percentage distribution of the total unorganized population of the two census divisions among the respective subdivisions is found, for 1951 and 1956, from the 1961 Census; the distributions for the inter-vening years is estimated by linear' interpolation, assuming that changes in distribution of population between the two census dates proceeded at a uniform rate. 14. Provincial vital statistics are published in monthly totals, and can therefor* be readily compared with the overall population increases shown by the June 1st estimates. (Quarterly estimates have been available only since 195' - 14 -Thus the 1951 and 1961 births and deaths in each census subdivision and municipality must be divided into pre- and post-censal periods. After scrutiny of the monthly distribution of births and deaths for the province as a whole - and there is no reason to suppose that the distribution in different parts of the province in any one year would vary much from the pattern for the province as a whole - it was decided that a simple 4:6 ratio, could be used safely to adjust the Vital Statistics to the same time span as the Census data. Again, the margin of error created by the use of this working assumption is small in comparison with the number of births and deaths in each area for the whole decade. Furthermore, births and deaths would be exaggerated in the same direction, and the errors would tend to cancel out, as far as the volume of natural increase is concerned. In this way, estimates of natural increase, and therefore of net migration as well, can be prepared for the census subdivisions, and for certain incorporated places, for the intercensal period. The'residual method" provides estimates of the net gains and losses of population in a given period of time which are the result of each of the major components of change. That is, they bear witness to the demographic effect of the processes of change and only indirectly do the estimates show the operation of the processestthemselves. For a study of migration per se, for instance, supplementary data would be needed to show the separate elements of in- and out-migration, and the directions of the various streams of migration within an area. But the - 15 -estimates of the components of population change p r o v i d e d by this method do provide ample m a t e r i a l for the a n a l y s i s of the r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of the rate of population change, and of shifts i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population. Most of the problems of methodology, and the more s p e c i f i c l i m i t a t i o n s c r e a t e d by the nature of the ava i l a b l e data, r e f e r to the p r e p a r a t i o n of the components of population change. Compared with these problems, the a n a l y s i s of the impact of d i f f e r e n t i a l growth and de c l i n e on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i s a simple matter. C e r t a i n quantitative m e a sures of d i s t r i b u t i o n a r e used to d e s c r i b e and analyse changes i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population. These techniques are b r i e f l y d i s c u s s e d i n context (Chapter F o u r ) . The data for this d i s c u s s i o n come , of course, f r o m the census enumerations of population, published i n the 1961 Census for the r e v i s e d s y s t e m of a r e a l units (see F i g u r e 2 and Appendix B). The percentage d i s t r i b u t i o n of the total population of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a among the census subdivisions i s compared with the patterns of d i s t r i b u t i o n of the p r o v i n c i a l population growth and its components, d e r i v e d f r o m the data presented i n Chapter Three. No attempt i s made to account for the i n i t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of population among the census subdivisions, obviously a task of major dimensions. Instead, the 1951 pattern of population d i s t r i b u t i o n i s 15. S e v e r a l g e n e r a l accounts, of. the h i s t o r y of settlement i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a are availab l e . See W. G. Black, " O r i g i n s of the P r e s e n t Population of B r i t i s h Columbia, ',' T r a n s a c t i o n s of the B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a continued . . . - 16 -taken as the starting point from which redistribution during the decade is measured. The extent to which the regional patterns of the natural and migrational components of population change are each responsible for shifts in the distribution of population is assessed. Analysis of population change and redistribution in terms of 16 its components does not, however, constitute full explanation. To explain all the elements of population growth, its geographic variations, and the impact of population change on the distribution of population would demand a comprehensive "regional synthesis" for every part of the province. This is clearly beyond the scope of a relatively short study, even if the terms of reference are restricted to the forty-six census subdivisions of British Columbia. A more limited approach to explanation is possible. The areal variations in the rate of population change can be measured against the variations of certain factors which are thought to be causative. The hypotheses of cause and effect may be formulated on theoretical or empirical grounds, including the Natural Resources Conference, VII (1954), 201-9; W. E. Ireland "The Historical Evolution of the Present Settlement Pattern, " Transactions of the British Columbia Natural Resources Conference, VII (1954), 197-200; Margaret A. Ormsby, British Columbia: a  History (Vancouver: Macmillan Co., 1958);. J. Lewis Robinson, "Population Trends and Distribution in British Columbia, " Canadian Geographer, No. 4 (1954), pp. 27-32. 16. Donald J. Bogue, "Population Distribution, " The Study of Population, ed. Philip M. Hauser and Otis Dudley Duncan (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959), p. 389. - 17 -implications of the temporal fluctuations of population growth, at the provincial level. Thus, for example, population change due to net migration might be compared with the number of jobs in primary-industry, in each area. Natural increase could be related to the age structure or the specific fertility and mortality rates of the population 17 concerned. But even for the key causal elements, there is little 18 statistical material available. Problems such as these influenced the choice of the method of explanation. There are two possible ways of explaining population growth and redistribution in terms of its social and economic context. In recent years, formal statistical methods have been widely used in the field of population studies, though with varying degrees of success. Multiple regression, as a tool in population research, was developed by 17. It is not wholly satisfactory to relate net changes of population due to the respective components directly to these causative factors; it is preferable to insert the intermediate step, the action of the demo-graphic processes themselves. In many cases, however, one is fortunate to have even the estimates of net change. The positive and negative net values of reproductive change and migration must therefore be used as substitutes for the more refined date. This distinction is important in a systematic study of the processes of population change. But here population change .is not so much an object of study, as part of the explanation of redistribution of population. 18. Data on the social and economic characteristics of the population are not published for areas smaller than the ten large census divisions. Changes in census definitions render most of the available data useless, notably the reclassification of occupation groups. The urban/rural definitions are discussed in Appendix E. - 18 -s o c i o l o g i s t s and l a t e r taken up by geographers. In this r e s e a r c h design, the components of population change, as dependent v a r i a b l e s a r e analysed i n t e r m s of selected "explanatory" i n d i c e s , as independent v a r i a b l e s . O r i g i n a l l y i t was hoped that this method of explanation could be applied to B r i t i s h Columbia, so that the a s s o c i a t i o n s between cause and effect could be f o r m a l l y m e asured and compared with the r e s u l t s of s i m i l a r studies elsewhere. T h i s r e s e a r c h d e s i g n had to be rejected, however, because of the problems of data, r e f e r r e d to above. The alternative approach to explanation was t h e r e f o r e adopted. It i s l e s s sophisticated than the quantified methods: i t i s c e r t a i n l y m o r e f a m i l i a r to geographers. It uses the same hypotheses of cause and effect but makes them into an i m p l i c i t theme ra t h e r than an e x p l i c i t method. In a study where c o l l e c t i o n and manipulation of data i s a major task, explanation i s inevitably secondary to d e s c r i p t i o n and a n a l y s i s . But a binding thread of explanation can be woven into the d i s c u s s i o n of population 19. Donald J. Bogue and D o r o t h y L. H a r r i s , C omparative Po p u l a t i o n  and Urban R e s e a r c h v i a Multiple R e g r e s s i o n and C o v a r i a n c e  A n a l y s i s (£'Scripps Foundation Studies i n Population D i s t r i b u t i o n , " No. 8j Oxford, Ohio: M i a m i U n i v e r s i t y , 1954. ) 20. E d w i n N. Thomas, " A r e a l A s s o c i a t i o n s between Population Growth and Selected F a c t o r s i n the Chicago U r b a n i z e d A r e a , " E c o n o m i c  Geography, XXXVI, 2 ( A p r i l , 1961), 158-70; H e r b e r t G. K a r i e l , "Selected F a c t o r s A r e a l l y A s s o c i a t e d with Population Growth due to Net M i g r a t i o n , " Annals of the A s s o c i a t i o n of A m e r i c a n Geographers, LHI, 2 (June, 1963), 210-23. - 19 -change and r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . F u r t h e r m o r e , the a n a l y s i s and explanation of population growth and decline i s not undertaken for its own sake, but rather as the f i r s t stage of the a n a l y s i s or the " p a r t i a l explanation" of shifts i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n pattern, the lat t e r being the p r i m a r y focus of this investigation. - 20 -C H A P T E R TWO T H E G R O W T H O F P O P U L A T I O N IN B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A , 1951-61 To set the scene for the analys i s of changes i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population, a b r i e f demographic a n a l y s i s i s presented i n this chapter. T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l points of view f r o m which population growth i n the p r o v i n c e as a whole can be viewed, two of which have p a r t i c u l a r r e l e v a n c e to the purposes of this thesis. The p r o v i n c i a l p i c t u r e can be seen as a mosaic, the aggregate of a multitude of l o c a l v a r i a t i o n s i n the nature and in t e n s i t y of population growth. The o v e r a l l growth of population p r o v i d e s a standard against which the magnitude of change i n each a r e a can be m e asured and its contribution to the shifts i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the whole population a s s e s s e d . But the p r o v i n c i a l p i c t u r e of population growth i s more than a figment of the s t a t i s t i c a l imagination: it i s the tangible e x p r e s s i o n of the s o c i a l and economic p r o c e s s e s which were operating over the whole p r o v i n c e . It was the dynamic link between the total environment i n each area, the geographical setting of the v a r i o u s r e g i o n s and the evolving pattern of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population. The kinds of r e l a t i o n s h i p s which explain the t e m p o r a l fluctuations i n the rate of population growth ar e s i m i l a r to those which shaped the incidence of population change i n each - 21 -part of the province. It is for this m o r e fundamental r e a s o n that the growth of population in B r i t i s h C olumbia as a whole is here d i s c u s s e d . Between 1951 and 1961* the population of B r i t i s h C olumbia grew by n e a r l y half a m i l l i o n , f r o m 1, 165, 210 to 1, 629, 082. T h i s i n c r e m e n t was the l a r g e s t for any i n t e r c e n s a l decade in the h i s t o r y of the province, and was one-third greater than the growth i n the 1941-51 period. The greater i n i t i a l population, i n 1951, meant, however, that the rate of growth in the nineteen-fifties was l e s s than i n some previous decades, such as those around the turn of the century, and also the rate of growth in the 'forties (see F i g u r e 3). C o m p a r i s o n of the r e s u l t s of the three censuses d u r i n g the nineteen-fifties shows that more than half the growth of population i n B r i t i s h C olumbia took place i n the f i r s t five y e a r s of the decade. The i n t e r c e n s a l estimates of population (see Appendix C), show the d e t a i l s of population growth during the decade. These estimates show that growth continued to a c c e l e r a t e until 1957, which was the peak of the post-war growth of population (see F i g u r e 4). Both the actual i n c r e m e n t s and also the rate of growth were l e s s after 1958 than i n previous y e a r s . T h e r e was a slight r e c o v e r y in 1959/60, but this was not sustained 2 into 1961. B y 1960/1 the rate of growth was half what it had been 1. The d e c e n n i a l Censuses (1951 and 1961) and" the p a r t i a l Census of 1956 were taken on June 1st of the r e s p e c t i v e y e a r s . 2. T h e r e has been a slight r e c o v e r y since 1961. POPULATION GROWTH 1871-1961 2 M I L L , B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A I M I L L : 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 -1 0 0 , 0 0 0 • 3 0 , 0 0 0 " on n n n 1871 '81 '9 | | 9 0 l 'II '21 '31 '41 "51 '61 Fig. 3 The slope of the line between any two points is proportional to the rate of population change in the time period represented. Source: B.C. V i t a l Statistics..., 1961; Census of Canada: 1961. VITAL RATES 1951-61 BRITISH COLUMBIA •t I TOTAL _ GROWTH NET MIGRATION 1951 '52 53 54 '55 '56 '57 58 '59 '60 *6I _ BIRTH RATE NATURAL INCREASE DEATH RATE Fig. 4 - 22 -at the beginning of the decade and the annual i n c r e m e n t was the 3 s m a l l e s t in the whole ten y e a r s . The fluctuations i n the o v e r a l l rate of population growth i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i n the nineteen-fifties r e f l e c t the d i s t i n c t i v e patterns of each of the components of change, n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e and net m i g r a t i o n (see F i g u r e s 4 and 5). The elements of population growth are d i s c u s s e d below, i n the order of their s i g n i f i c a n c e to the growth of population i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i n the i n t e r c e n s a l p e r i o d . The annual fluctuations i n the strength of each component a r e used to i l l u s t r a t e the v a r y i n g demographic effect of the s o c i a l and economic p r o c e s s e s which shaped the growth of population. A t the 1961 Census date, there were more than 140, 000 persons i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a who had a r r i v e d in Canada as i m m i g r a n t s since J a n u a r y 1st 1951. E v e n after the d i f f e r e n c e between this p e r i o d and the i n t e r c e n s a l i n t e r v a l i s allowed for, i m m i g r a t i o n f r o m o v e r s e a s was more important than inter p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n as a source of population growth. T o t a l net m i g r a t i o n was the mainstay of population growth d u r i n g the decade.  3. The s m a l l s i z e of the 1960/1 i n c r e m e n t could be the r e s u l t of the juxtaposition of an exaggerated estimate for the p r o v i n c i a l population i n I960 with a more accurate enumeration i n 1961. One would expect the growth of population to be s m a l l at thi s time, however. The i n t e r c e n s a l estimates of population are n o r m a l l y f a i r l y a c c u r a t e so that one can probably accept this m e asure of population change. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE 1951-61 r90 BRITISH COLUMBIA -60 -40 H I O c CO J> z o CO 1951-2 1952-3 1953-4 1954-5 1955-6 1956-7 1957-8 1958-9 1959-60 1960-1 - 23 -The r e c o r d s of the Department of C i t i z e n s h i p and I m m i g r a t i o n demonstrate the r e g i m e of the s t r e a m of i m m i g r a t i o n into the p r o v i n c e (see Table 1). T h e r e was a gradual r i s e i n the volume of i m m i g r a t i o n d i r e c t e d towards B r i t i s h Columbia, i n the e a r l y part of the decade. A marked peak o c c u r r e d in 1956 and 1957, but there was then a sudden co l l a p s e . B y 1961 the volume of i m m i g r a t i o n was only half what it had been ten y e a r s p r e v i o u s l y . T A B L E 1 I M M IGRANTS I N T E N D I N G TO S E T T L E IN B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A , 1951-61. a (thousands) Y e a r Immigrants to Canada Immigrants to B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a Number Perc e n t a g e of T o t a l 1951 195 14 7. 4 1952 164 15 9. 1 1953 169 13 7. 8 1954 154 12 7. 9 1955 110 12 10. 5 1956 165 18 10. 8 1957 282 38 13. 3 1958 125 13 10. 7 1959 107 11 10. 3 I960 104 10 9. 7 1961 72 7 10. 2 ! T o t a l 1, 524 153 10. 1 a Source: Canada, Department of C i t i z e n s h i p and Immigration, I m m i g r a t i o n 19 -, (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , annual). E s t i m a t e for i n t e r c e n s a l p e r i o d only. 4. Canada, Department of C i t i z e n s h i p and Immigration, I m m i g r a t i o n to Canada by E t h n i c O r i g i n f r o m O v e r s e a s and T o t a l f r o m the United States  by P r o v i n c e of Intended Des t i n a t i o n : Calendar Y e a r s 1946 to 1955,  Incl u s i v e (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , 1956). Ibid. , I m m i g r a t i o n 19- (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , annual f r o m 1956). - 24 -Western E u r o p e has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been the m a i n source for i m m i g r a t i o n to Canada. The national c omposition of the i m m i g r a n t s to B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a d u r i n g the nineteen-fifties was g e n e r a l l y s i m i l a r to the pattern i n p r e v i o u s decades. But there were some shifts i n the balance between i n d i v i d u a l countries. T h e r e were r e l a t i v e l y fewer B r i t o n s , and more Continental Europeans, e s p e c i a l l y Italians, coming to the p r o v i n c e than i n the past. T h e r e was a v e r y s m a l l i n c r e a s e i n the number of A m e r i c a n s l i v i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia. E u r o p e a n i m m i g r a n t s continued to d o m i n a t e the influx of population into B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a (see F i g u r e 6). Thus the f a c t o r s influencing e m i g r a t i o n f r o m E u r o p e played an important part i n d e t e r m i n i n g the l e v e l of i n - m i g r a t i o n to B r i t i s h Columbia, and hence the o v e r a l l rate of population growth i n the province. In 1951, i m m i g r a t i o n f r o m E u r o p e was s t i l l affected by the turbulence of the immediate post-war y e a r s . F r o m 1952 to 1955, this movement subsided as conditions i n E u r o p e i m p r o v e d r e l a t i v e to those i n Canada. But the a t t r a c t i o n of N o r t h A m e r i c a grew, and i n 1956 the volume of i m m i g r a t i o n began to i n c r e a s e again. The r i s e was encouraged by modifications i n the p o l i c y of the Canadian Government and p e r m i t t e d by a r e l a x i n g of o f f i c i a l r e s t r i c t i o n s on e m i g r a t i o n i n 5 s e v e r a l E u r o p e a n countries. S p e c i a l f a c t o r s came into effect i n the 5. Canada, Department of C i t i z e n s h i p and Immigration, Canadian Immigration: an Outline of Developments int the Post-war P e r i o d , (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , 1957). - 25 -autumn of 1956: the Suez C r i s i s and the Hungarian U p r i s i n g strengthened the "push" behind e m i g r a t i o n f r o m Europe, which was r e f l e c t e d i n the exceptionally l a r g e i m m i g r a t i o n into Canada i n 1957. A c r i t i c a l change took place i n 1958. P o l i t i c a l conditions i n E u r o p e became more settled and there was an a c c e l e r a t i o n of economic growth and s o c i a l i mprovement i n B r i t a i n and on the Continent, as the stimulus of the c r e a t i o n of the Common Market and the F r e e T r a d e A r e a began to be felt. Thus there was l e s s incentive to leave E u r o p e than i n p r e v ious y e a r s . A t the same time, the rate of expansion in the Canadian economy slackened (see F i g u r e 7) when the world p r i c e s for p r i m a r y m a t e r i a l s f e l l . T h i s was i t s e l f p a r t l y due to the end of r e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n Europe. The balance of payments p r o b l e m which Canada had to jface was a symbol of the r e l a t i v e stagnation i n the late 'fifties, after the bustle and v i t a l i t y of the f i r s t post-war decade. The demand for labour i n p r i m a r y i n d u s t r y ceased to r i s e , although continuing growth and d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n of the secondary and t e r t i a r y s e c t o r s of the economy provided a c e r t a i n number of employment opportunities. But the a v a i l a b l e labour f o r c e - school l e a v e r s , w o r k e r s made redundant by the changing patterns of labout u t i l i z a t i o n i n a g r i c u l t u r e and the o t h e r b a s i c i n d u s t r i e s , and the growing numbers of women who wished to be employed - was s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e to f i l l most of the new jobs i n the CAPITAL INVESTMENT DOLLARS IIOOH IOOOH 9 0 0 H Z UJ 2 I-(0 UJ > z 0. < O Q. <£ o UJ a. 8 0 0 ^ 7 0 0 H 600-4 5 0 0 H 4 0 d CANADA i 1 1 r 1 1 1 1 1 I 1951 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 5 8 5 9 ' 60 '61 Fig. 7/ - 26 -province. Labour un r e s t at this time was a symptom, i t s e l f to be feared, of the p r o blems inherent i n the s t r u c t u r e of the economy of 7 B r i t i s h Columbia. P o t e n t i a l i m m i g r a n t s were d e t e r r e d by the apparent i n s t a b i l i t y of the p r o v i n c i a l economy and they p r e f e r r e d to go to a r e a s with a greater v a r i e t y of opportunities for employment. Thus the " p u l l " to B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a weakened, at the same time as the "push" f r o m E u r o p e was becoming l e s s f o r c e f u l . The volume of i m m i g r a t i o n continued to f a l l , although the flow did not d r y up completely. Some "New Canadians" were needed to f i l l the v a c a n c i e s i n existing jobs, which a r o s e when f o r m e r i m m i g r a n t s and Canadians t h e m s e l v e s l l e f t the o p r o v i n c e or moved up the occupational ladder. 6. H a r o l d L. G e i s e r t , Population Growth and International M i g r a t i o n (Washington: George Washington U n i v e r s i t y , 1962). International L a b o u r Office, International M i g r a t i o n 1945-1957 ("Studies and Reports, " New S e r i e s , no. 54 (Geneva: International Labour Office, 1959), and subsequent notes i n ib i d , Industry and Labour. 7. C l a r e n c e L. Barber, "Canada's Unemployment P r o b l e m , " Canadian  J o u r n a l of E c o n o m i c and P o l i t i c a l Science, XXVIII, No. 1 (February, 1962), 88-102. 8. T h e r e has been c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n t r o v e r s y over the r o l e of i m m i g r a n t s i n C a n a d i a n societ y and the effect of i m m i g r a t i o n p o l i c y on the labour f o r c e . One school of thought argues that the i m m i g r a n t s d i s p l a c e d the Canadian population, by s u c c e s s f u l l y competing with them for both employment and s o c i a l status. Another view i s that i m m i g r a n t s stepped onto the lowest rung of the s o c i a l and economic ladder, accepting jobs and l i v i n g i n a r e a s which were disdained by the Canadian population. Thus i m m i g r a t i o n was needed to f i l l the vacuum l e f t by the o u t - m i g r a t i o n of Canadians to the United S'tates. Some facts are available to support both cases, and there a r e elements of truth on each side. But i t is dangerous to g e n e r a l i z e i n this way about a l l s o c i a l and ethnic groups and about a l l regions of the p r o v i n c e and a l l s e c t o r s of the economy. See D a v i d C. Corbett, "Immigrants and Canada's E c o n o m i c Expansion, " International Labour Review, L X X V I I (January-June, 1958), pp. 19-37. - 27 -The number of i m m i g r a n t s who a r r i v e d i n Canada with the intention of coming to B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a was 159, 000 during the p e r i o d 9 between January 1st 1951 and the 1961 Census date. The d i s c r e p a n c y between this f i g u r e and the 1961 Census total of 140, 000 i m m i g r a n t s i n the population of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a was due to mortality, to f a i l u r e to r e a c h the intended destination, and to o u t - m i g r a t i o n after a short stay i n the p r o v i n c e . It was p a r t l y compensated by i m m i g r a t i o n of p ersons who had a r r i v e d i n Canada d u r i n g the decade i n i t i a l l y intending to l i v e i n other p r o v i n c e s . D e s p i t e the l a r g e contribution of i m m i g r a n t s to the growth of population i n B r i t i s h Columbia, the number of f o r e i g n - b o r n persons i n c r e a s e d by only 84, 000 between 1951 and 1961. T h i s i n c r e a s e included both i m m i g r a n t s and migrants f r o m other provinces, who were b o r n o v e r s e a s and came to Canada p r i o r to 1951 but did not r e a c h B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a un t i l the ' f i f t i e s . M o r t a l i t y among persons who had come to Canada in previous decades was r e s p o n s i b l e for p a r t of the d i f f e r e n c e between the number of i m m i g r a n t s (140, 000) and the i n c r e a s e i n the f o r e i g n - b o r n population. O u t - m i g r a t i o n of the foreign-born, including r e c e n t a r r i v a l s as well as the older generations, had a s i m i l a r effect. Many f o r e i g n - b o r n 9. These dates were chosen to c o n f o r m with the time p e r i o d used for the Census count of the number of i m m i g r a n t s in the population of the p r o v i n c e . In the i n t e r c e n s a l p e r i o d alone, the number of i m m i g r a n t s intending to come to B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a was a p p r o x i m a t e l y 153, 000. - 28 -persons joined the flow of Canadians out of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a to other p r o v i n c e s and to the United S t a t e s . ^ T h e r e was a l s o a substantial backwash of d i s s a t i s f i e d m igrants to Europe, e s p e c i a l l y B r i t a i n and West Germany. ^  T h e r e was, therefore, a high turnover of population i n B r i t i s h Columbia: the estimates of net m i g r a t i o n do not adequately p o r t r a y the extent to which the separate s t r e a m s of i n - and o u t - m i g r a t i o n affected the population of the province. B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a f a i l e d to a b s o rb a l l the population brought to i t by i m m i g r a t i o n , and there was also a l o s s of p ersons who were a l r e a d y r e s i d e n t i n the p r o v i n c e i n 1951. The f a c t o r s which s e r v e d to stem the flow of i m m i g r a t i o n f r o m o v e r s e a s a l s o swelled the ebb of population away f r o m B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a (see below). C o m p l e m e n t a r y to the pattern of m i g r a t i o n between B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a and places outside Canada was the exchange of population with other p r o v i n c e s (see F i g u r e 6). C o m p a r i s o n of the 1961 b i r t h p l a c e data with s i m i l a r m a t e r i a l for 1951 shows that d u r i n g the decade there was a net i n c r e a s e of more than 90, 000 p e r s o n s b o r n i n other p r o v i n c e s but r e s i d e n t i n B r i t i s h Columbia, while the number of B r i t i s h Columbians, l i v i n g i n other p r o v i n c e s i n c r e a s e d by only 35, 000. Inter p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n a l s o brought f o r e i g n - b o r n persons into the province, and some B. C. -born persons r e t u r n e d after a short p e r i o d of r e s i d e n c e elsewhere. F r o m the 10. F o r many ethnic groups i t i s e a s i e r to gain entry to the United States after a short p e r i o d of r e s i d e n c e i n Canada than i f the move i s made d i r e c t f r o m the mother country. 11. H a r o l d G e i s e r t , op. c i t . , p. 32. - 29 -Census data i t i s not p o s s i b l e to evaluate the contribution of these 12 " i n d i r e c t " movements into and out of B r i t i s h Columbia. The net gain of 56, 000 by inter p r o v i n c i a l migration, as shown i n the b i r t h p l a c e data, i s t h e r e f o r e a m i n i m u m estimate of the total growth of population attributable to m i g r a t i o n f r o m other p r o v i n c e s . The actual contribution 13 was probably twice this amount. Mos t of the Canadian i n - m i g r a n t s to B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a were b o r n i n A l b e r t a and Saskatchewan, with a substantial number f r o m Manitoba (see F i g u r e 6). On t a r i o and Quebec sent few, e s p e c i a l l y i n r e l a t i o n to the s i z e of the populations of those p r o v i n c e s . Movement f r o m the A t l a n t i c P r o v i n c e s , notably Nova Scotia, and the T e r r i t o r i e s r e p r e s e n t e d a m o re s i g n i f i c a n t f r a c t i o n of the population of those a r e a s . Conversely, A l b e r t a was the p r o v i n c e with the l a r g e s t gain of B r i t i s h Columbia. A high p r o p o r t i o n a l s o went to Ontario, which was the only p r o v i n c e with an o v e r a l l net gain f r o m the exchange of population with B r i t i s h Columbia. T h e r e were s m a l l i n c r e a s e s i n the numbers of B. C. -born persons i n 12. Although both i m m i g r a t i o n and inter p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n contributed to the net i n c r e a s e i n the number of f o r e i g n - b o r n persons who were l i v i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia, this was offset to some extent by m o r t a l i t y among the older f o r e i g n - b o r n population of the pr o v i n c e . The lat t e r f o r m e d a high p r o p o r t i o n of their r e s p e c t i v e generations because i n previous decades m i g r a t i o n f r o m o v e r s e a s and f r o m the United States was the major component of population growth. The numbers of B r i t i s h Columbians and of Canadians i n these generations a r e t h e r e f o r e p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y s m a l l . 13. The d i f f e r e n c e between total net m i g r a t i o n and i m m i g r a t i o n d u r i n g the decade was 100, 000. - 30 -other parts of the country, but nowhere else was the gain greater than the l o s s of its own population to the western p r o v i n c e . The pattern of net changes i n the numbers of persons f r o m the other p r o v i n c e s r e s i d e n t i n B r i t i s h Columbia, and of B r i t i s h Columbians i n other p r o v i n c e s , has many shortcomings as an index of the nature of 14 . i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n . But the major s o c i a l and economic determinants and d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n the pattern of m i g r a t i o n between p r o v i n c e s were probably the same for Canadians and for the f o r e i g n -b o r n population. Thus the total pattern of i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n was s i m i l a r to that of the Canadian-born population. These patterns 15 i l l u s t r a t e the effects of "intervening o p p o r t u n i t i e s " and of the 14. E a c h m i g r a n t d i d not n e c e s s a r i l y l i v e i n his p r o v i n c e of b i r t h i n 1951. Individuals may have made multiple moves d u r i n g the decade. The r e t u r n of Canadians f r o m o v e r s e a s also affected the net changes i n the -various b i r t h p l a c e groups. The total amount of m i g r a t i o n into B r i t i s h Columbia, f r o m each source, i s underestimated to the extent that p e rsons moving into the p r o v i n c e died before the 1961 Census date. Because m i g r a t i o n to a congenial c l i m a t e i s more important as a motive for m i g r a t i o n for a p e r s o n from, say, Manitoba than for someone f r o m Nova Scotia, a higher p r o p o r t i o n of m i g r a nts f r o m the f o r m e r p r o v i n c e would be e l d e r l y people, than f r o m the l a t t e r . M o r t a l i t y would the r e f o r e have a d i f f e r e n t i a l effect pn the patterns pf m i g r a t i o n between provinces. Deaths to i n - m i g r a n t s were included i n the total number of deaths in B r i t i s h Columbia; deaths among non-B r i t i s h Columbians reduced the volume of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e and con-sequently swelled the total net m i g r a t i o n r e s i d u a l . T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p accounts for p a r t of the d i f f e r e n c e between the m i g r a t i o n r e s i d u a l and the sum of the separate streams of migration, as r e c o r d e d by the Census. 15. Samuel A. Stouffer, "Intervening Opportunities: a T h e o r y R e l a t i n g M o b i l i t y and Distance, " A m e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, V, No. 6 (December, 1940), 845-67. - 31 -"gravitational weight"1^ of other parts of the North American continent. 1 7 For instance, the small size of the contribution from Ontario and Quebec to the growth of population in British Columbia was an indication of the superior retaining power of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Valley region or, alternatively, of the direction of the majority of the out-migrants from those areas to other parts of Canada or to the United States. Distance reduced the significance of migration from the Atlantic Provinces, and emphasised the contribution of Albertans. m There was the incessant crossing and recr-ossing of the boundary between Alberta and British Columbia, which occurs between adjacent political units, especially where the boundary between them offers no real barrier to migration. Over and above the interchange of population which arose from normal 18 "migration probabilities", there was a substantial gain of Albertans in British Columbia without a correspondingly large movement in the opposite direction. Alberta-born persons were moving into the Peace River block, and towards the south-west coast of the Pacific province, but there was little incentive for British Columbians to move in comparable 16. Gerald A. P. Carrothers, "An Historical Review of the Gravity and Potential Concepts of Human Interaction, " Journal of the  American Institute of Planners, XXII, No. 2 (Spring, 1956) 94-102. 17. Although the international boundary has some significance, it is not an effective barrier to the migration of the Canadian population. It does not divide the North American "migration field" into two completely separate compartments. 18. Gunnar ,Kulldorff, Migration Probabilities (['Lund Studies in Geography, " Series B, No. 14 ]Lund, Sweden: C. W. K. Gleerup, 1955)}. - 32 -numbers to A l b e r t a . The patterns of i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n d e s c r i b e d here were the aggregate of a complex and fluctuating set of s m a l l e r movements. It i s d i f f i c u l t to m e a s u r e these separate elements, and the t e m p o r a l fluctuations i n them. A c o m p a r i s o n between the numbers of intending i m m i g r a n t s and the total net m i g r a t i o n a l gain of population i n each year i s not a v a l i d m e a s u r e of the v a r i a t i o n s i n the flow of migrants to and f r o m other p r o v i n c e s (see Table 1 and Appendix A, T a b l e 2). F u r t h e r m o r e , the outflow of Canadians and of f o r e i g n - b o r n persons f r o m B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a to the United States was an important but unknown element. Nev e r t h e l e s s , there a r e c e r t a i n i m p l i c a t i o n s i n the c o m p a r i s o n of the two sets of data (see Table 2). Throughout the decade, there was o u t - m i g r a t i o n f r o m a l l s e c t o r s of the population of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a but before 1958 it was more than compensated by the inflow f r o m other p r o v i n c e s and by i m m i g r a t i o n . In that year, and to the end of the decade, the total net m i g r a t i o n a l gain of population i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a was l e s s than the number of intending i m m i g r a n t s . To the extent that the lat t e r was a v a l i d m e asure of i m m i g r a t i o n (and i t may not be at a l l r e l i a b l e ) , there was a net m i g r a t i o n a l l o s s f r o m a l l other s e c t o r s of the population. T h i s i m p l i e s that a l l or some of the following changes o c c u r r e d : the d i r e c t i o n of i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n was r e v e r s e d ; the outflow to the United States was intensified; and the p r o v i n c e could no longer absorb - 33 -T A B L E 2 M I G R A T I O N S T R E A M S , 1951 - 1961 a (thousands) Y e a r T o t a l net F r o m other Other m i g r a t i o n countries s o u r c e s 1951 19 14 5 1952 24 15 9 1953 25 13 12 1954 26 12 14 1955 32 12 20 1956 51 18 33 1957 50 38 12 1958 6 13 - 7 b 1959 9 11 - 2 b I960 7 10 - 3 b 1961 2 7 - 5 b a Source: T a b l e 1 and Appendix A (Table 6). Note the qual i f i c a t i o n s mentioned on p. 32 as to the meaning of the f i g u r e s at the r i g h t of this table. b Negative sign indicates net out-migration. and r e t a i n a l l the i m m i g r a n t s who came to Canada intending to settle i n B r i t i s h Columbia. If this i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of some admittedly crude data i s a v a l i d p i c t u r e of events, then the reasons behind this situation were pro b a b l y those which were simultaneously r e d u c i n g the flow of i m m i g r a t i o n f r o m E u r o p e to B r i t i s h Columbia. The problems which caused people to - 34 -leave the p r o v i n c e were the same as those which d e t e r r e d potential i n - m i g r a n t s f r o m other parts of Canada and f r o m other c o u n t r i e s . The economic stagnation i n the late n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s was m o r e s e r i o u s i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a than in, for example, Southern Ontario, which was l e s s dependent on p r i m a r y i n d u s t r y and where the s u p e r s t r u c t u r e of s e c ondary and t e r t i a r y a c t i v i t i e s was more f u l l y developed than in the western p r o v i n c e . C e r t a i n parts of the United States offered an even wider range of opportunities and were even m o r e at t r a c t i v e than Southern O n t a r i o as f o c i for m i g r a t i o n . Such ar e a s behaved as magnets, drawing population out of B r i t i s h Columbia, and d i v e r t i n g p art of the flow of potential i m m i g r a n t s . The fluctuating patterns of the d i f f e r e n t types of m i g r a t i o n r e f l e c t the waxing and waning of the a t t r a c t i v e power of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a as a focus for migration, v i s - a - v i s that of other p r o v i n c e s and those parts of the world which competed with B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a for a share i n the total s u p p l y of i n t e r - r e g i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n . In general, m i g r a t i o n to B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a f r o m other parts of the continent responded to the same " p u l l " f a c t o r s as i n t e r n a t i o n a l migration, though the "pushes" were more s p e c i f i c to each place of o r i g i n . But the t i m i n g and the intensity of the r e s p o n s e s were diffe r e n t . Because of the greater f l e x i b i l i t y of m i g r a t i o n within Canada, and between Canada and the United States, the i n t r a - c o n t i n e n t a l movement was quite c l o s e l y - 3 5 -a d j u s t e d to s o c i a l and e c o n o m i c c i r c u m s t a n c e s . M e a n w h i l e , c h a n g e s i n the d e t e r m i n a n t s of i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n w e r e s u b j e c t to a t i m e l a g , and to a d a m p e n i n g d o w n , b e f o r e t h e i r e f fects w e r e f e l t on the v o l u m e of m i g r a t i o n i n t o B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , , F u r t h e r m o r e , the f a c t o r s w h i c h r e d u c e d the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , t o w a r d s the end of the d e c a d e , w e r e n e v e r s u f f i c i e n t l y s t r o n g to o v e r c o m e the f o r c e of the e x p e l l i n g " p u s h " f r o m E u r o p e . I m m i g r a t i o n t h e r e f o r e c o n t i n u e d to the end of the d e c a d e , d e s p i t e the r e v e r s a l of the m i g r a t i o n f l o w s w i t h i n the C a n a d i a n p o p u l a t i o n . A l t h o u g h the a v a i l a b l e e s t i m a t e s c a n n o t be r e c o n c i l e d c o m p l e t e l y , i t d o e s a p p e a r that a b o u t 4 0 % of the n e t m i g r a t i o n a l g a i n of p o p u l a t i o n d u r i n g the d e c a d e was due to i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n , but that the m a j o r i t y of n e w a r r i v a l s i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a w e r e f r o m o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . ( T h e r a t i o v a r i e d c o n s i d e r a b l y , of c o u r s e , f r o m y e a r to y e a r , s e e T a b l e 2) . T o t a l n e t m i g r a t i o n w a s the d o m i n a n t c o m p o n e n t of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a d u r i n g the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s . T h e v a r y i n g a c t i o n of the s e p a r a t e s t r e a m s of m i g r a t i o n w e r e t h e r e f o r e the m a i n d e t e r m i n a n t s of the o v e r a l l g r o w t h of p o p u l a t i o n . T h e m o t i v e s f o r m i g r a t i o n , r e f l e c t i n g the r e l e v a n t f e a t u r e s of s o c i a l and e c o n o m i c l i f e i n the p r o v i n c e w e r e the k e y to the f l u c t u a t i o n s i n p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h d u r i n g the d e c a d e . S i m i l a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s c a n be i n v o k e d to a c c o u n t f o r the extent to w h i c h the v a r y i n g flosws of m i g r a t i o n i n t o and out of the p r o v i n c e a f f e c t e d e a c h a r e a . T h e c h a r a c t e r of i n d i v i d u a l r e g i o n s , a n d the o p p o r t u n i t i e s and s a t i s f a c t i o n s - 36 -offered by each area, were evaluated by potential i n - and out-migrants, including those who moved within the p r o v i n c i a l boundary as w e l l as those who entered or l e f t B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a d u r i n g the decade (see Chapter Three). T h i s a s s e s s m e n t i n t u r n d e t e r m i n e d the a r e a l incidence of population growth and d e c l i n e due to net m i g r a t i o n . The r e g i o n a l patterns of population change ar e d i s c u s s e d i n the next chapter. Although its contribution to the o v e r a l l growth of population was s m a l l e r and l e s s v a r i a b l e than that of net migration, the pattern of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was far f r o m unimportant as a determinant of the rate of population change i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a as a whole, and i n each region. The changing rate of population growth due to this component of population change (see F i g u r e s 4 and 5) i l l u s t r a t e the i n t e r a c t i o n of the s e v e r a l p r o c e s s e s at work, and indicate the kinds of r e l a t i o n s h i p s which might be expected to c h a r a c t e r i z e the n a t u r a l growth of popul-ation i n each a r e a and the r e s u l t a n t shifts i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the p r o v i n c i a l population. N a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , the d i f f e r e n c e between b i r t h s and deaths, contributed 224, 000 to the growth of population i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a between 1951 and 1961. T h i s was s l i g h t l y l e s s than half the total growth of popul-ation, a higher p r o p o r t i o n than i n any previous decade. The d i s t r i b u t i o n of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , and the f a c t o r s which shaped this pattern, a r e t h e r e f o r e s i g n i f i c a n t to the total growth and r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of population - 3 7 -i n the province. A s a population grows f r o m the " p i o n e e r " stage, m i g r a t i o n a u t o m a t i c a l l y d e c l i n e s i n r e l a t i v e importance as a component of population growth. The age-sex s t r u c t u r e of the population matures to the point at which i t can independently sustain i t s own growth. T h i s type of evolution c h a r a c t e r i z e d the r e c e n t demographic h i s t o r y of B r i t i s h Columbia. It should be noted, however, that m i g r a t i o n and n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e are not independent phenomena. Without continual n ourishment f r o m outside, the volume of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n the p r o v i n c e would have been much s m a l l e r than i t a c t u a l l y was i n the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s . I m m i g r a t i o n was dominated by young, m a r r i e d people (see F i g u r e 8); i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y d i s p l a y e d this feature as well. T h e r e was also a secondary concentration of i n - m i g r a n t s f r o m other parts of Canada i n the e l d e r l y age groups, whose members moved to the coast for their r e t i r e m e n t . These two groups had the highest f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y rates, r e s p e c t i v e l y , i n the whole population. The augmentation of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e by the youth-fulness of the m a j o r i t y of migrants was greater than the d i m i n i s h i n g effect of the s e n i l i t y of the secondary group. The volume of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was t h e r e f o r e swelled even m ore by net m i g r a t i o n f r o m other p r o v i n c e s than i t would have been i f the age s t r u c t u r e s of the m i g r a n t s and AGE-SEX STRUCTURE MALE FEMALE B.C. POPULATION NUMBERS B.C. POPULATION PERCENTAGE STRUCTURE PERCENTAGE OF INTENDING IMMIGRANTS FIVE-YEAR AGE GROUPS I a 2 GAIN 1951-61. 3 GAIN 1958-61. I a 2 LOSS 1951-61. 3 LOSS 1958-61. [^ j F i g . 8 - 38 -of the i n i t i a l population had been i d e n t i c a l . The age s t r u c t u r e of the migrants dovetailed with that of the i n i t i a l population. Due to the unusually low b i r t h rates i n the D e p r e s s i o n y e a r s of the nineteen-thi r t i e s , the cohorts i n the B. C. -born sector of the population that were entering the working and m a r r i a g e a b l e age groups, between 1951 and 1961, were r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l . The number of potential parents i n the B. C. -born population was depleted even more by out-migration. Without the contribution of i m m i g r a t i o n , the b i r t h r a t e would also have f a l l e n d u r i n g the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s . But the concentration of the m a j o r i t y of i m m i g r a n t s into the young, m a r r i e d age groups sustained, and even i n c r e a s e d the b i r t h rate. T h i s concentration was an important feature of i m m i g r a t i o n throughout the decade but was p a r t i c u l a r l y m a rked at the time of the peak i m m i g r a t i o n i n 1956 and 1957. T h i s peak was subsequently r e f l e c t e d i n the high number of b i r t h s i n 1959. The d i s t i n c t i v e age s t r u c t u r e of i m m i g r a t i o n into B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a was not d i r e c t l y r e f l e c t e d i n the changes i n the age composition of the population (see F i g u r e 8). The influx of young people f r o m o v e r s e a s was offset to some extent by the o u t - m i g r a t i o n of their contempories, e s p e c i a l l y at the end of the decade, and by the r i s i n g p r o p o r t i o n of 19. O u t - m i gration at the end of the decade c a n c e l l e d part of the e a r l i e r influx, but it could not eliminate the contribution of i n - m i g r a n t s to the n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e of the population (see Chapter One). c h i l d r e n and adolescents i n the population. R e t i r e m e n t f r o m other provinces, f a l l i n g death rates, and an extension of the average length of l i f e i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a were r e f l e c t e d in the i n c r e a s e in the p r o p o r t i o n of e l d e r l y people. This, and the l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n a l gains at the base of the age p y r a m i d (due to the high b i r t h rates) also contributed to the r e d u c t i o n i n the percentage of young adults i n the population. But i m m i g r a t i o n prevented this '(narrowing of the waist" of the age p y r a m i d f r o m being as s e r i o u s as i t might have been. T h e r e were some changes i n a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y which emphasized the trends d i s c u s s e d above. A t the beginning of the decade, 6 0 % of the b i r t h s i n each year were the f i r s t or second chil d i n each f a m i l y . B y 1961, this p r o p o r t i o n had declined a l i t t l e , and there were r e l a t i v e l y more b i r t h s in the o r d e r s 4 and above (see Appendix B, Ta b l e 9). T h i s change means that r e l a t i v e l y fewer f a m i l i e s were being started at the end of the decade, and that the average s i z e of a l l f a m i l i e s r o s e f r o m 3. 3 in 1951 to 3. 6 i n 1961. P a r t of this change was produced by changes i n the age s t r u c t u r e of the m a r r i e d population, through out-migration of the younger m a r r i e d couples, but the r i s e i n f e r t i l i t y affected the whole of the m a r r i e d population. A s p e r s o n a l income rose, each couple could afford to m a r r y e a r l i e r and to have more c h i l d r e n . Of course, the r e l a t i o n s h i p between economic and demographic change is r a r e l y as d i r e c t or as simple as this, but such an explanation i s p l a u s i b l e for the present example. 20. U n i v e r s i t i e s -National B u r e a u Committee for E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h , D e m o g r a p h i c and E c o n o m i c Change i n Developed Countries (Princeton: . P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y Press,, I960). - 40 -While the b i r t h rate rose, the crude death rate f e l l (see F i g u r e 4). The m o r t a l i t y rates for a l l generations were lowered, but e s p e c i a l l y for the v e r y young and the e l d e r l y (see Appendix B, Ta b l e 19). But these two groups s t i l l had the highest m o r t a l i t y rates i n the whole population and they became pr o p o r t i o n a t e l y m o r e important i n the age s t r u c t u r e of the population. Thus the numbers of deaths i n c r e a s e d . The total growth of population, however, i n c r e a s e d the denominator of the crude death rate so much that this index was a c t u a l l y d e c r e a s e d during the decade, (see F i g u r e 4). F o r the p r o v i n c e as a whole, net m i g r a t i o n was the more v a r i a b l e component of population growth, r e f l e c t i n g the complexity of the i n t e r a c t i o n between its s o u r c e s . The greater magnitude of m i g r a t i o n combined with its v a r i a b i l i t y to make this component the p r i m a r y d eterminant of the v a r i a t i o n s i n the volume and rate of population change. N a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was by no means unimportant to the o v e r a l l growth of population, but i t was l e s s v a r i a b l e than net m i g r a t i o n . It depended to a greater degree on conditions p r e v a i l i n g at the outset; its r e a c t i o n s to s o c i a l and economic change were n e c e s s a r i l y m o re sluggish than those of net m i g r a t i o n . Thus the death rate was l e s s v a r i a b l e than the other elements of population change, although there was a gradual d e c l i n e i n this rate. The b i r t h r a t e showed both long- and s h o r t - t e r m v a r i a b i l i t y ; an o v e r a l l i n c r e a s e i n the - 41 -number of b i r t h s with a peak late i n the decade, and a m a x i m u m rate i n 1959/60. The widening gap between b i r t h s and deaths was the b a s i s for the growth i n the r e p r o d u c t i v e component of population change, over the decade as a whole. The s i z e of the population of B r i t i s h Columbia, and the contribution of i m m i g r a n t s were the major causes of the d i v e r g e n c e of the b i r t h and death r a t e s and of the growing r e l a t i v e importance of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e as a component of population growth. Changes i n the age s t r u c t u r e and i n s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y rates, not e n t i r e l y independent of the d e m o g r a p h i c effects of migration, emphasized the influence of these trends. But as the population of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a grew, the effect of s o c i a l and b i o l o g i c a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s on the l e v e l of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e diminished, and absolute s i z e of the population became more important as a determinant of the rate of this component of population change. The f a c t o r s which c o n t r o l l e d the t e m p o r a l fluctuations in the rates of each component of population growth for the p r o v i n c e as a whole d u r i n g the nineteen-fifties a r e numerous, and their i n t e r a c t i o n complex. But a few stand out as important determinants of the o v e r a l l rate of population change. The i n i t i a l s i z e of the population, the expansion or c o n t r a c t i o n of employment opportunities i n B r i t i s h Columbia, and the effects of m i g r a t i o n upon the age s t r u c t u r e of the population (and - 42 -t h e r e f o r e on f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y ) were p a r t i c u l a r l y s i g n i f i c a n t . If these f a c t o r s were the p r i m a r y controls of the t e m p o r a l fluctuations i n the rate of population growth i n the p r o v i n c e as a whole, then m o re than l i k e l y t h e y were also the b a s i s for a r e a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i n the rate of population change, to be analyzed i n Chapter T h r e e . The p r o v i n c i a l p i c t u r e i s , after a l l , the aggregate or the "average" of conditions i n the i n d i v i d u a l parts of the province. The r e l a t i o n s h i p s of cause and effect established at the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l are those which might be invoked to account for the a r e a l pattern of population change, and the r e s u l t a n t changes i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population. The unity of s o c i a l and economic l i f e i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a was p r o b a b l y greater than i t s d i v e r s i t y , and one would expect the demographic responses to c e r t a i n types of change i n i n d i v i d u a l areastto be m i n i a t u r e r e p l i c a s of the r e a c t i o n s at the p r o v i n c i a l scale. T h i s i s the most important c o n c l u s i o n which has r e l e v a n c e to the a r e a l pattern of population change to be drawn f r o m the r e c e n t growth of population i n the p r o v i n c e as a whole. It i s the p r e m i s e on which Chapter T h r e e r e s t s . C H A P T E R T H R E E T H E A R E A L P A T T E R N O F P O P U L A T I O N C H A N G E The p i c t u r e of a decade of o v e r a l l population growth i n B r i t i s h Columbia, d e s c r i b e d in the l a s t chapter, p r o v i d e s p e r s p e c t i v e f o r the changes which took place i n each r e g i o n of the p r o v i n c e between 1951 and 1961. The p r o v i n c i a l growth i s composed of a multitude of a r e a l v a r i a t i o n s i n the rate of population change. The ge o g r a p h i c a l pattern of population growth and decline r e f l e c t s the l o c a l incidence of a l l the f a c t o r s which shaped the p r o v i n c i a l growth. Just as the a n a l y s i s of demographic change i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a as a whole was not undertaken f o r its own sake but for a m o r e " g e o g r a p h i c a l " purpose, so the d i s c u s s i o n of the a r e a l pattern of population growth and decline w i l l be or i e n t e d towards the shifts i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population, the c e n t r a l topic of this study. T o what extent, and why did population growth i n each r e g i o n v a r y f r o m the average r a t e ? Deviations f r o m the p r o v i n c i a l r a t e of growth, and the v a r y i n g m e c h a n i s m of population change r e f l e c t the action of "abnormal" elements i n population s t r u c t u r e and demographic behaviour. In turn, these v a r i a t i o n s were due to economic growth or decline and to s o c i a l conditions i n each p a r t of the p r o v i n c e . The a v a i l a b l e data a r e not s u f f i c i e n t l y detailed, by a r e a or by topic, to p e r m i t f u l l investigations of the o r i g i n and m e c h a n i s m of population growth in each a r e a . The con c l u s i o n s drawn in Chapter Three, however, indicate that c e r t a i n f a c t o r s were probably - 43 -- 44 -important causes of the a r e a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of population change, and hence of the shifts i n the pattern of population d i s t r i b u t i o n . The r e m a r k a b l e growth of population i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i n the 1951-61 p e r i o d was by no means evenly s p r e a d over the p r o v i n c e . T h e r e were s t r i k i n g r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n s i n the rate of population change; some ar e a s t r e b l e d or even quadrupled their population, while others declined. The extent to which the ra t e of change i n different parts of the province v a r i e d f r o m the average rate i s shown i n F i g u r e 9. The d i f f e r e n c e between the rate i n each a r e a l unit and the B. C. r a t e can be r e a d off on the diagonals i n F i g u r e s 15-17.* 2 In general, the a r e a s with the highest r a t e s of population growth were i n the C e n t r a l and N o r t h e r n Interior of the province: the P e a c e R i v e r Country, the " h i n t e r l a n d " of the A l a s k a Highway, and the P r i n c e G e o r g e - Q u e s n e l - C a r i b o o region. T h i s r e f l e c t s the r a p i d growth of the economy of these a r e a s during the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s . In a l l these a r e a s except census subdivisions 6D and 9B, the amount of population growth in v o l v e d was a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n of the p r o v i n c i a l total. The K i t i m a t - K e m a n o a r e a , and the outer suburban f r i n g e of m e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver a l s o showed high r a t e s of growth. The f o r m e r , n e a r l y 500%, was a r e s u l t of the much p u b l i c i z e d development of a l a r g e r e s o u r c e p r o j e c t and the c r e a t i o n of an i n d u s t r i a l c i t y r e l a t e d to i t , i n a p r e v i o u s l y 1. The r e l e v a n t s t a t i s t i c a l m a t e r i a l i s in Appendix A, Table/ 12. 2. A r b i t r a r i l y defined as a rate of growth at l e a s t twice the p r o v i n c i a l rate of 39. 8%. RATES OF POPULATION CHANGE CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS MORE THAN TWICE B.C. £ S RATE OF GROWTH RELATIVE DECLINE 100 MLS. ESI HIGHER THAN B.C. RATE BUT NOT AS MUCH AS DOUBLE ABSOLUTE DECLINE Fig. 9 - 45 -uninhabited a r e a . Population growth of this intensity was unique within the present context. The rate of growth i n the suburbs of m e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, where the volume of i n c r e a s e was n e a r l y ten times that i n 3 the K i t i m a t area, was just over twice the p r o v i n c i a l r a t e . A few a r e a s grew at r a t e s which were greater than the p r o v i n c i a l average but not by as much as double: C e n t r a l Vancouver Island, the K a m l o o p s - L y t t o n area, the Skeena and B u l k l e y V a l l e y s , and the Upper C o l u m b i a V a l l e y . In a l l these a r e a s the amount of growth was a l s o substantial. The three census subdivisions of the L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n (4C, 4D and 4E) taken together, a l s o f e l l into this category, and accounted for m o r e than half the total growth of population i n the province. The C h i l c o t i n (census subdivisions 6D and 8C) a l s o e x p e r i e n c e d a high rate of population growth but the a c t u a l si z e of the i n c r e a s e was s m a l l . In most other r e g i o n s of B r i t i s h Columbia, population i n c r e a s e d at a rate l e s s than the p r o v i n c i a l average. These i n c l u d e d the southern i n t e r i o r v a l l e y s , parts of the coast, the L o w e r F r a s e r V a l l e y (excluding the m e t r o p o l i t a n area) and the Vancouver census subdivision.. The a c t u a l growth of population was i n most cases substantial but the rate of growth was low because of the s i z e of the 1951 population. The same applies to economic growth i n these areas; i n the L o w e r Mainland, 3. The r a p i d growth in census s u b d i v i s i o n 4D took place in the c i t i e s of P o r t C o q u i t l a m and P o r t Moody and i n the D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t i e s of Coquitlam, Delta and S u r r e y (including White Rock). The r a t e s i n these a r e a s were, r e s p e c t i v e l y , 151%, 113%, 85%, 118%, 130%. New W e s tminster grew by only 18%. 46 -p a r t i c u l a r l y , i n d i v i d u a l new i n d u s t r i e s and b u s i n e s s e s had r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e impact, but the total growth i n the r e g i o n accounted f o r much of the economic development i n the p r o v i n c e . F e w of these a r e a s of slow population growth were a c t u a l l y stagnant, e c o n o m i c a l l y or demographically. But they s u f f e r e d a r e l a t i v e decline of population with r e s p e c t to the r a p i d but more i s o l a t e d growth of population i n the north of the p r o v i n c e . T h e r e were few a r e a s of actual population decline - the Crow's Nest P a s s , the C e n t r a l Coast around Knight Inlet, and p a r t s of the north-west of 4 the p r o v i n c e - due to a withdrawal f r o m the m a r g i n s of settlement and to stagnation of the few e x i s t i n g c e n t r e s of population in these areas, such as F e r n i e and Stewart. Although population decline was l o c a l l y significant, the numbers i n v o l v e d were too s m a l l to make much i m p r e s s i o n on the o v e r a l l pattern of population i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Since the rate of growth for the p r o v i n c e as a whole was h e a v i l y weighted i n favour of the a r e a s with the largest shares of the i n i t i a l population of the province, the rates of growth i n these a r e a s were i n the same o r d e r of magnitude as the p r o v i n c i a l r ate. But even a s m a l l deviation f r o m the B.C. rate of growth r e p r e s e n t e d a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l a r g e , or s m a l l share of the total amount of growth i n the province. On the other hand, the a r e a s with the s m a l l e s t populations i n 1951 were among those with the most extreme rates of change during the decade, but these 4. A c t u a l decline might a l s o have been caused by a f a i l u r e to r e p l a c e l o s s by m o r t a l i t y and by o u t - m i g r a t i o n rather than conscious r e t r e a t of settlement. - 47 -va r i a t i o n s made l i t t l e i m p r e s s i o n on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population change. S i m i l a r i t i e s between the rates of population change i n s e v e r a l a r e a s were to a c o n s i d e r a b l e degree fortuitous, since the rat e s depended on two v a r i a b l e s , the amount of growth and the i n i t i a l population. The values of both were s p r e a d over a wide range (see F i g u r e s 15-17; Appendix A, Table 12). The meaning attached to each of the rates a l s o depended on the si z e of the s u b d i v i s i o n and the nature of settlement within i t . F u r t h e r m o r e , s i m i l a r r a t e s of o v e r a l l growth or decline of population o b s c u r e d different patterns of the components of population change. Why did the rat e s of population change v a r y so much over the p r o v i n c e ? B e f o r e explanation of this v a r i a t i o n can be attempted, population growth and decline i n each a r e a must be broken down into its components, n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e and net m i g r a t i o n . E s t i m a t e s of the components of population change i n the census subd i v i s i o n s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a and f o r s e l e c t e d i n c o r p o r a t e d places (see Appendix A, Table 12) were d e r i v e d by the " r e s i d u a l method" d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter One. To orient the d i s c u s s i o n towards the c e n t r a l question of this study, and to condense the body of data into a manageable state, a "typology of population change" w i l l be adopted. In a r e c e n t a r t i c l e , J. W. Webb f o r m a l l y stated and u t i l i z e d a new and ingenious but simple technique for analyzing the components of population change, which i s p a r t i c u l a r l y a p p r o p r i a t e for use by - 48 -5 geographers. With slight m o d i f i c a t i o n i t w i l l g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t e the a n a l y s i s of r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the rate of population change. It enables one to deal with population changes " f r o m the point of view of the v a r y i n g contribution of n a t u r a l change and net m i g r a t i o n to population gains and losses." 1. If the two p a i r s of components, r e p r o d u c t i v e gain or l o s s , and 7 m i g r a t i o n a l gain or l o s s a r e t r e a t e d ..dichotomously, then eight types or population change ar e d e r i v e d . Only five of these o c c u r r e d i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i n the 1951-61 p e r i o d within the s y s t e m of a r e a l units u s e d here. The types are:-1. Population decrease: n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e l e s s than net l o s s by m i g r a t i o n . 2. Population i n c r e a s e : n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e g r e a t e r than net l o s s by m i g r a t i o n . 3. Population i n c r e a s e : n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e g r e a t e r than net gain by m i g r a t i o n . 4. Population i n c r e a s e : n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e l e s s than net gain by m i g r a t i o n . 5. Population i n c r e a s e : n a t u r a l d e c r e a s e l e s s than net o gain by m i g r a t i o n . 5. John W. Webb, "The N a t u r a l and M i g r a t i o n a l Components of Population Change i n E n g l a n d and Wales, 1921-1931J " E c o n o m i c  Geography, X X X I X , 2 ( A p r i l , 1963), 130-48. 6. Ibid. , p. 130. 7. See p.p. 14-15. 8. The three types not r e p r e s e n t e d i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a a r e (a) population decrease: n a t u r a l d e crease l e s s than net gain by m i g r a t i o n , (b) population decrease: n a t u r a l d e c r e a s e greater than net l o s s by m i g r a t i o n , (c) population decrease: n a t u r a l decrease l e s s than net l o s s by m i g r a t i o n . - 49 -The types of population change can be r e p r e s e n t e d s y s t e m a t i c a l l y along c o - o r d i n a t e s (see F i g u r e 10). Since o v e r a l l change i s the resultant of the two m a j o r components, its strength can be r e a d off on the diagonals. The rate of population change in each a r e a can t h e r e f o r e be r e a d i l y c o m p ared with the rates in other a r e a s , and with the rate for the province as a whole. The d i f f e r e n c e between the coordinates of each point and the p r o v i n c i a l coordinates indicates which component of change was p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s i b l e for d i f f e r e n c e i n the o v e r a l l r a t e of change. The d i s t r i b u t i o n of the fiv e types of population change The s e r i e s of maps and scatter d i agrams ( F i g u r e s 11-17) shows the nature of demographic change i n each part of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a during the 1951-61 pe r i o d . V i r t u a l l y a l l the province gained population by the excess of b i r t h s over deaths for the decade as a whole. But i n s e v e r a l i n d i v i d u a l y e a r s c e r t a i n a r e a s had m o r e deaths than b i r t h s ; thus the o v e r a l l growth for the decade was s m a l l i n the West Kootenays and i n p a r t s of the V i c t o r i a urban r e g i o n . Only i n one s m a l l area, the 9. Rates, rather than amounts of change, a r e used here since this phase of the enquiry i s c oncerned m a i n l y with the v a r y i n g speeds of population change over the p r o v i n c e . The volume of change in each a r e a w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter F o u r . A TYPOLOGY OF POPULATION CHANGE NET LOSS BY MIGRATION *" EXCESS OF BIRTH S Dit/NOT OCCUf / IN B.C., / 1951-61 EXCESS OF DEATHS OVER BIRTHS NET GAIN BY "MIGRATION AFTER J .W.WEBB. F i g . 11 - 50 -unorganized*^* t e r r i t o r y of the L o w e r F r a s e r V a l l e y , i n census sub-d i v i s i o n 4E, showed m o r e deaths than b i r t h s for the whole decade. A t the p r o v i n c i a l or r e g i o n a l s c a l e of a n a l y s i s , however, this f i g u r e i s l i t t l e m o r e than an i n s i g n i f i c a n t anomaly. M o s t parts of the p r o v i n c e showed a f a i r l y high rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , and for the m a j o r i t y of the census subdivisions i t was the m a j o r component of population growth (types 2 and 3). M i g r a t i o n was m o r e l o c a l i z e d but r e a c h e d some high values where i t did occur; i t was m o re important than n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e for most m u n i c i p a l i t i e s (type 4). A t h i r d of the d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and a quarter of the c i t i e s , towns and v i l l a g e s l o s t population by net out-migration but in many cases the m a r g i n was s m a l l and n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was m o r e than enough to counterbalance the l o s s . O v e r a l l decline of population 10. The t e r m "unorganized" i s used i n this thesis to r e f e r to the t e r r i t o r y outside the boundaries of thoseincorporated places for which data a r e presented. There a r e a number of m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , m ost of them f a i r l y s m a l l , for which estimates of the components of population change cannot be p r e p a r e d and a r e t h e r e f o r e i n c l u d e d i n the "unorganized a r e a s " mentioned here. Although this usage i s not s t r i c t l y c o r r e c t , there i s no a p p r o p r i a t e t e r m to r e p l a c e i t . 11. It i s p o s s i b l e that this unusual phenomenon was due to an a b n o r m a l l y high p r o p o r t i o n of e l d e r l y people i n the population of the a r e a s concerned, and to out-migration of younger people. The number of b i r t h s i n the a r e a would be reduced, and the death rate would r i s e . The r e p r o d u c t i v e change i n these a r e a s might a l s o have a r i s e n f r o m erroneous r e g i s t r a t i o n of b i r t h s and deaths, and f r o m changes i n the boundaries of the contiguous m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . - -51 -o c c u r r e d where n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e d i d not compensate for o u t - m i g r a t i o n (type 1). In type 1 ( F i g u r e 12) population decline was the r e s u l t of net out-migration, which c a n c e l l e d the p o s i t i v e contribution of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e to population change. T h i s was the only type of population decline i n any part of B r i t i s h Columbia, i n the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s . F o r the census subdivisions taken as undivided units ( F i g u r e 11) the rates of net m i g r a t i o n and n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e a r e s p r e a d over a wide range (see F i g u r e 15). The two components a r e equally important i n the d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of the o v e r a l l r a t e of change. These census subd i v i s i o n s a r e shown i n F i g u r e 11. When population change i n the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i s separated f r o m the tot a l change i n each a r e a ( F i g u r e 12), it i s apparent that type 1 change was r a t h e r m o r e wide-s p r e a d than i n the pattern shown on F i g u r e 11. In the unorganized parts of the census subdivisions, the rate of o u t - m i g r a t i o n was m o r e v a r i a b l e than that of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , so that the f o r m e r had a greater influence on the o v e r a l l rate of population change. Only one urban place (among those for which data a r e available) f e l l into this c a t egory -R o s s l a n d . There, net o u t - m i g r a t i o n was offset to a c o n s i d e r a b l e extent by n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . In t e r m s of the numbers of p ersons involved, the A r r o w -Kootenay L a k e s and the Crow's Ne s t P a s s a r e a s were the most important F i g . 12 - 52 -examples of type 1 change, together with the unorganized parts of the Southern Okanagan-Princetonj. B a s i n region. P a r t s of the C e n t r a l Coast, and the north-west of the p r o v i n c e were a l s o affected by this type of population change. These were the a r e a s which s u f f e r e d an a c t u a l or a r e l a t i v e decline of the l o c a l economy and hence of employment during the decade. Where r e l a t i v e economic growth did occur, i t was i n the " b a s i c " sector of i n d u s t r y and was c a p i t a l (rather than labour--intensive. Nor was there any r e a s o n for other s e c t o r s of the economy to i n c r e a s e t h e i r labour r e q u i r e m e n t s . Such opportunities as did occur would have been r e a d i l y f i l l e d f r o m the l o c a l labour f o r c e . T h e r e were not enough jobs to a b s orb the l o c a l supply of labour so there could be no question of at t r a c t i n g i n - m i g r a n t s . M o s t of these regions s u f f e r e d the additional handicap of remoteness f r o m the m a i n -s t r e a m of the c u l t u r a l and s o c i a l l i f e of the p r o v i n c e , and of an uninviting climate. ; o T h e r e was l i t t l e to counteract the p u l l of the city, where the lights were b r i g h t e r and the streets seemed to be paved with gold, at l e a s t i n the eyes of the young people f r u s t r a t e d by l a c k of opportunity i n the I n t e r i o r . Net o u t - m i g r a t i o n o c c u r r e d i n a l l the a r e a s shown on F i g u r e 12 but i n those designated as Type 2, i t was l e s s than n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , so there was no o v e r a l l decline of population. T h i s type of population change was c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of parts of the C e n t r a l and Southern Interior of B r i t i s h Columbia, but i t was a l s o found at the Coast and on the - 53 -Queen Ch a r l o t t e Islands. The d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n between types 1 and 2 i s not only a matter of the greater or l e s s e r rate of population l o s s due to out-migration; the v a r y i n g strength of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was a l s o important. Thus the age s t r u c t u r e and the s p e c i f i c b i r t h and death r a t e s which p r e v a i l e d i n each a r e a p a r t l y d e t e r m i n e d the type of population change. In a r e a s of type 1 change, the rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was low, r e f l e c t i n g the top-heaviness and the weakness of the middle p o r t i o n of the age s t r u c t u r e which i n turn depended on the p r e v i o u s demographic h i s t o r y of the a r e a . F o r instance, the population of the Kootenay region, p a r t i c u l a r l y the T r a i l - R o s s l a n d d i s t r i c t , grew by heavy i n - m i g r a t i o n a generation ago. But i n the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s , its economy did not have su f f i c i e n t momentum to provide adequate employment for the new working generation, the o f f s p r i n g of the f o r m e r i n - m i g r a n t s . Young adults were leaving the a r e a , the b i r t h rate f e l l , and the l e v e l of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was not high enough to ensure a continuation of population growth. By contrast, where the age s t r u c t u r e was now m o r e balanced, young w o r k e r s joined the labour f o r c e at much the same rate as older w o r k e r s left i t , and there was no "bottleneck" of young people seeking employment. Ou t - m i g r a t i o n was s p r e a d m o r e evenly over the age groups, and its effect on the b i r t h and death rates was l e s s pronounced than i n the previous example. Thus a r e a s such as the Kettle V a l l e y e x p e r i e n c e d population change - 54 -of type 2, during the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s . In most ar e a s of type 2 change, the rate of o u t - m i g r a t i o n was s m a l l (see F i g u r e s 15-17) but i n the southern v a l l e y s of the province, the rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was a l s o lower than the B.C. average, so that the o v e r a l l rate of population growth was slight. F u r t h e r north, and i n the c o a s t a l r e g i o n s the rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was unusually high, because of the high p r o p o r t i o n of Indians i n the population of those a r e a s . T h i s offset out-migration, so that the o v e r a l l rate of population growth approached the p r o v i n c i a l average m o r e c l o s e l y than elsewhere. T h i s was true f o r the census sub d i v i s i o n s taken as whole units and a l s o for the unorganized t e r r i t o r y taken alone. T h e r e were a few i n c o r p o r a t e d places i n this change type - F e r n i e , Nelson, Revelstoke, V i c t o r i a , L a d y s m i t h , A l b e r n i and M i s s i o n C i t y . The e x t r a c t i o n of t h e i r population changes f r o m the r e s p e c t i v e census subd i v i s i o n s made l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e to the type of population change found there (compare F i g u r e s 11 and 12). E x p l a n a t i o n s s i m i l a r to those put f o r w a r d f o r type d:\ar-ej a p p l i c a b l e here. In most of the a r e a s with type 2 population change, the growth of employment during the decade was slight. The C o a s t Mountains were v i r t u a l l y devofd of settlement; the unorganized parts of the N o r t h Okanagan, the K e t t l e V a l l e y and the F r a s e r - C a n o e a r e a s u f f e r e d c o n t r a c t i o n or stagnation of the demand for labour i n - 55 -a g r i c u l t u r e , and there was l i t t l e e l s e to b o l s t e r the economy i n these a r e a s . Of the i n c o r p o r a t e d p l a c e s in this c l a s s , the m a j o r i t y were " r e s i d e n t i a l towns" or s e r v i c e centres for r e g i o n s dominated by b a s i c i n d u s t r i e s i n which there was l i t t l e e x t r a demand for labour. The p r o v i s i o n of s e r v i c e s was a l r e a d y as great as each a r e a could support. The e x i s t i n g l e v e l of employment was maintained in these a r e a s , but v a c a n c i e s only o c c u r r e d as older w o r k e r s r e t i r e d , or died, and as employed persons moved out of the a r e a . T h e r e were not sufficient new jobs for the needs of the growing l a b o u r - f o r c e , p a r t i c u l a r l y young people seeking their f i r s t jobs. The s i z e of the a v a i l a b l e labour f o r c e rather than economic c o n t r a c t i o n and redundancy was the cause of o u t - m i g r a t i o n f r o m these a r e a s . A n exception was V i c t o r i a C i t y where population growth attributable to expanding employment did not a l l take place within the boundaries of the City, but i n the f r i n g i n g suburbs. The d i f f e r e n c e between types 1 and 2 on the one hand and types 3 and 4 on the other i s fundamental; in the la t t e r , there was a net gain of population through m i g r a t i o n , as opposed to net l o s s f or the f i r s t two types. A g a i n the d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of the two types within each m a j o r group i s based on the ratio.: of net m i g r a t i o n to n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . A r e a s of net m i g r a t i o n a l gain can be thought of as the "growing p o i n t s " of the economy. They were s u f f i c i e n t l y dynamic to a t t r a c t population f r o m other parts of the p r o v i n c e , and f r o m f u r t h e r a f i e l d . - 56 -The d i s t r i b u t i o n of population change of Type 3, where n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e exceeded the growth of population due to net m i g r a t i o n , was i n m a r k e d c o n t r a s t with that of types 1 and 2 (see F i g u r e 13). T h e r e a r e fewer regions of unorganized t e r r i t o r y , although the si z e of the population i n v o l v e d was as great as for the other types. The a r e a s of type 3 change in c l u d e d the Skeena-Bulkley v a l l e y s , the southern P e a c e country, the T hompson-Clearwater B a s i n , the E a s t Kootenays, and parts of Vancouver Island. But many of the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s a l s o belonged to this c l a s s , which r e p r e s e n t e d a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of the total population of the p r o v i n c e . Vancouver, New Westminster and N o r t h Vancouver C i t y a l l e x p e r i e n c e d population change of this type, and V i c t o r i a was only m a r g i n a l l y excluded. The great influence of these c e n t r a l c i t i e s on the growth of population i n the p r o v i n c e a« a whole is r e f l e c t e d i n the p u l l i n g of the point for the B.C. change towards the type 3 sector, i n F i g u r e s 15-17. But even this p u l l was not quite strong enough to counteract the effects of the f r o n t i e r and of n o r t h e r n development on the p r o v i n c i a l change. Thus B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a did not c o n f o r m to the g e n e r a l pattern of population change i n N o r t h A m e r i c a , 12 the equivalent of type 3. 12. N o r m a n B. Ryder, "Reproductive R e n n a i s s a n c e N o r t h of the R i o G r a n d e ^ A Crowding Hemisphere: Population Change in  the A m e r i c a s , ed. K i n g s l e y Davis (pAnnals of the A m e r i c a n A c a d e m y of P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l Scienc e1',' V o l . C C C X V l J P h i l a d e l p h i a , 1958) pp. 18-24). POPULATION CHANGE TYPE 3 Fig. 13 - 5 7 -Population change of type 3 took place i n s e v e r a l different contexts. The n o r t h e r n parts of the province, and N o r t h e r n Vancouver Is l a n d s t i l l had something of a "pioneer'eharacter"; f a i r l y r a p i d i n -m i g r a t i o n o c c u r r e d during the nin e t e e n - f i f t i e s . But these a r e a s were not p a r t of the "active f r o n t i e r " - during the decade they e x p e r i e n c e d c o n s o l i d a t i o n of pr e v i o u s gains, r a t h e r than expansion. The age st r u c t u r e of their populations r e a c h e d the point where n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e came to be important as a component of growth: many young couples r a i s i n g their f a m i l i e s , but r e l a t i v e l y few e l d e r l y people. Thus the crude b i r t h rate was high and the death rate low. Type 3 population change a l s o o c c u r r e d i n the K a m l o o p s -Okanagan region, the towns of c e n t r a l Vancouver Island, and the ea s t e r n p a r t s of the Lo w e r F r a s e r V a l l e y . The continued growth of the economy of a l l these a r e a s a t t r a c t e d i n - m i g r a h t s at a moderate rate but the i n i t i a l population was l a r g e enough to ensure that n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was the major componant of population growth. T h i s d e s c r i p -tion c o u l d a l s o apply to Vancouver Cit y , N o r t h Vancouver C i t y and New Westminster, which f e l l into this growth type, except that the "f l i g h t to the subu r b s " offsets to some extent the movement into the c e n t r a l c i t i e s f r o m other parts of the p r o v i n c e . The rate of net m i g r a t i o n a l gain i n the c e n t r a l a r e a s was th e r e f o r e low. T h i s was a l s o true of E s q u i m a l t and Oak B a y m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , by now f u l l y u rbanized, i n the V i c t o r i a m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a . - 58 -Although the rates of population change i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s , and i n the l a r g e r c i t i e s i n other parts of the p r o v i n c e were modest - l e s s than or only s l i g h t l y above the B.C. rate - the numbers in v o l v e d were such that the population growth i n these a r e a s o v e r -shadowed change elsewhere. The importance of this type of population change was a r e f l e c t i o n of the nature of growth at the p r o v i n c i a l s cale (see Chapter Two), and the concentration of a l a r g e share of the population of the p r o v i n c e into these a r e a s . Thus the trends at work for the p r o v i n c e as a whole were, presumably, a l s o important in the a r e a s of type 3 change. 13 The l a s t type of population change of any importance i s type 4, in which the growth of population due to net m i g r a t i o n exceeds n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . T h i s i s the c l a s s into which the population growth for the p r o v i n c e as a whole, between 1951 and 1961, f e l l . It includes m o r e of the i n c o r p o r a t e d p l a c e s and more of the a r e a s of unorganized t e r r i t o r y than any other type of population change, but not as many census subdivisions as type 3. In t e r m s of the percentage of the total population, type 4 was the most important group f o r both the census sub d i v i s i o n s and the unorganized a r e a s , but not for the i n c o r p o r a t e d p l a c e s . 13. The o c c u r r e n c e of type 5 is d i s c u s s e d on p. 50. - 59 -The d i s t r i b u t i o n of type 4 change i s shown on F i g u r e 14. Although there were some cases where a c i t y and the surrounding a r e a both d i s p l a y e d type 4 change, this was not the g e n e r a l r u l e , just as i t was not for the other types of population change. In a l l the i n c o r p o r a t e d places with this type of population growth, the rate of net m i g r a t i o n a l gain was greater than for the province as a whole, and i n only one case (North Cowichan D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y ) was n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e at a lower rate than the average. A l l the census sub-d i v i s i o n s , with and without the o r g a n i z e d t e r r i t o r y , a l s o showed growth r a t e s greater than the average; i n general, the r a t e s of both the components of change were higher than over the p r o v i n c e as a whole. These a r e a s were c l e a r l y the "growing p o i n t s " of the p r o v i n c e during the decade. The exploitation of m i n e r a l fuels i n the P e a c e R i v e r Country, the K i t i m a t p r o j e c t and the expansion of the f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s in the C e n t r a l I n t e r i o r and on Vancouver Island r e p r e s e n t e d the "active f r o n t i e r " i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a during the ni n e t e e n - f i f t i e s . The growth of employment r e s u l t i n g f r o m these developments made a d i r e c t c o n t r i b u t i o n to population growth i n the a r e a s concerned. Through 14 the'multiplier e f f e c t " they stimulated growth i n other s e c t o r s of the economy, l o c a l l y and i n other parts of the p r o v i n c e . Thus they ".made a 14. R.E. Caves and R. H. Holton, The Canadian Economy: P r o s p e c t and R e t r o s p e c t ^["Harvard E c o n o m i c Studies; " V o l . C X I l ) Cambridge, Massachusetts: H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1959^ L F i g . 14 - 60 -second, indirect contribution to population growth, for example the settlement of the Peace River Country and the emergence of Dawson Creek and Fort St. John as the urban counterparts to primary development. Population growth in the municipalities of the valleys of the Southern Interior was based on a variety of factors, including developments in agricultural processing and other secondary industries, the growth of regional service functions, and the spawning of dormitory settlements such as Castlegar, and North Kamloops from older cities. Similar factors also stimulated migration into urban centres in other parts of the province (see Figure 14). Although the rates of change were not as high as in some northern parts of British Columbia, the growth of population in the Southwest of the province was particularly striking because of the numbers involved. The rings of population growth of type 4 around the cities of Vancouver and New Westminster, and also the occurrence of this type of change in Saanich and Oak Bay conformed to the expected pattern of metropolitan development. The suburban fringes grew rapidly, mainly by in-migration while the central core showed only a moderate rate of growth, depending more on natural increase than on - 61 -m i g r a t i o n . The f i l l i n g up of the newer suburbs i n the r e s p e c t i v e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s , and the penetration of an exurban population into the surrounding r u r a l a r e a s (Surrey, Delta and Maple Ridge, for example) i s e x p r e s s e d i n the incidence of type 4 change. T h i s i s a s t r i k i n g m a nifestation of the c e n t r i f u g a l p r o c e s s e s at work i n the urban South-west of B r i t i s h Columbia. The o c c u r r e n c e of type 4 change was due to the strength of the net m i g r a t i o n a l component of growth r a t h e r than the weakness of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . In most a r e a s with change of this type, the age s t r u c t u r e was such that a f a i r l y high rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e would come about. T h i s tendency was i n g e n e r a l r e i n f o r c e d by the age s t r u c t u r e of the i n - m i g r a n t s during the p e r i o d . A n exception i s Oak Bay, where the i n - m i g r a t i o n is dominated by e l d e r l y people, the death rate high and the b i r t h rate low so that i n - m i g r a t i o n did not have the same effect as i n other parts of the p r o v i n c e . The d i s t r i b u t i o n of points within sector 4 i n F i g u r e s 15-17 i m p l i e s that there was a r e l a t i o n s h i p between the rates of net m i g r a t i o n and n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , at l e a s t for these sets of a r e a l units. T h i s r e l a t i o n -ship was to be expected since so many of the i n - m i g r a n t s were young m a r r i e d couples whose a r r i v a l would s w e l l the subsequent b i r t h rate, without a c o r r e s p o n d i n g r i s e i n the number of deaths. Thus the rate of TYPES OF POPULATION CHANGE CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS TYPES OF POPULATION CHANGE UNORGANIZED AREAS RATE OF NATURAL RATE OF TYPES OF POPULATION CHANGE - 62 -n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e would r i s e . F u r t h e r m o r e , some of the economic f a c t o r s a t t r a c t i n g m i g r a n t s into an a r e a might a l s o have c a u s e d a r i s e i n the f e r t i l i t y of the population of that a r e a . T h i s was p a r t i c u l a r l y true of r u r a l a r e a s . In contrast, the m i g r a n t s into the m e t r o p o l i t a n environment s e e m to have m o r e r e a d i l y a c q u i r e d the demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of 15 the urban population. Thus F i g u r e 16 does not show as c l o s e a r e l a t i o n s h i p between the components of growth, within type 4, as that d i s p l a y e d on the other scatter d i a g r a m s . Although the rates of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s showing type 4 change ( F i g u r e 16) were within the same f a i r l y n a r r o w range as for the other types of change, the census subdivisions and the u n organized a r e a s showed a greater v a r i e t y . E v e n so, most of the v a r i a t i o n i n the o v e r a l l rate of population growth was due to the pace of net m i g r a t i o n , r a t h e r than n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . In the type 4 sector, the rate of net m i g r a t i o n i s f r e e to v a r y much more than in the other types of population change. The a r e a s with type 4 change, the r e f o r e , showed a wider range of o v e r a l l growth rates than the m embers of any other group. Due to a combination of high r a t e s of both n a t u r a l and m i g r a t i o n a l population growth i n most places within type 4, these were the a r e a s 15. "Attitudes a l'egard de l a fecondite a Vancouver',", Population, XIII, No. 2 (avrilGjuin, 1958), 299-304. - 63 -which ex p e r i e n c e d the most r a p i d o v e r a l l growth of population during the decade. A few cases of type 3 change a l s o had rates of growth which were above average. Although each type of population change o c c u r r e d in a number of l o c a l i t i e s which have some elements of gen e r a l r e g i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i n common, there were v e r y few r e g i o n a l groupings of contiguous census su b d i v i s i o n s with s i m i l a r types and rates of change. It i s a l s o h a r d to r e c o g n i z e definite u r b a h / r u r a l contrasts i n this r e s p e c t . T h i s d i f f i c u l t y may w e l l be a r e s u l t of the use of a c e r t a i n set of a r e a units, an inevitable p r o b l e m where o f f i c i a l s t a t i s t i c a l m a t e r i a l i s used. It i s perhaps no accident that the patterns of change i n the L o w e r F r a s e r V a l l e y , where the a r e a l units a r e s m a l l e r than i n any other part of the province, make the most di s t i n c t i v e r e g i o n a l pattern of population change to be found i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a during the ninete en -f if tie s. The use of the typology of population change has shown the demographic b a s i s for the a r e a l v a r i a t i o n s i n the o v e r a l l rate of population growth. C e r t a i n i n f e r e n c e s about the r e l a t i o n s h i p s and int e r a c t i o n s of population change with s o c i a l and economic changes i n the census subdivisions could be made f r o m the e m p i r i c a l m a t e r i a l on the components of population change, i n the light of demographic theory and f r o m the conclusions made at the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l . A s expected, - 64 -the f a c t o r s which had an important influence on the annual fluctuations of the rate of population growth i n the p r o v i n c e as a whole were a l s o important as causes of a r e a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i n the rate of change. R e f e r e n c e to these c a u s a l f a c t o r s was woven into the d i s c u s s i o n of the types of population change i n the census subd i v i s i o n s . D e t a i l e d s t a t i s t i c s were not a v a i l a b l e to give objective backing to the d i s c u s s i o n . A l i m i t e d amount of m a t e r i a l i s published, however, for the ten l a r g e census d i v i s i o n s ; the determinants of the r a t e s of population change w i l l now be t r e a t e d m o re s y s t e m a t i c a l l y , making use of these data. T h e r e ar e two types of f a c t o r s causing d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of the rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . F i r s t l y , age-sex, s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y rates v a r i e d f r o m place to place, producing di f f e r e n c e s i n the crude b i r t h and death r a t e s i n populations which were otherwise s i m i l a r . In the 1951-61 period, there were no m a r k e d or constant d i v ergences f r o m the p r o v i n c i a l a g e - s p e c i f i c rates in any a r e a . It i s l i k e l y that d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y between s o c i a l or occupational groups have been disap p e a r i n g or at l e a s t becoming l e s s important as f a c t o r s diff e r e n t i a t i n g n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . The groups with the most di s t i n c t i v e f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y patterns - the Indians, and c e r t a i n other ethnic, economic or s o c i a l groups - were s m a l l i n number and were becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y integrated with the r e s t of the population, at l e a s t as f a r as demographic behaviour was concerned. - 65 -A m o r e important cause of r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n s i n the crude b i r t h and death rates was divergence of the age st r u c t u r e of the population of each a r e a f r o m the " n o r m a l " ( F i g u r e 18). These d i f f e r e n c e s r e f l e c t , i n turn, f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y d i f f e r e n c e s i n p revious generations, a r e s u l t of the s o c i a l and economic h i s t o r y of each a r e a . A second element was the age-sex s e l e c t i v i t y of m i g r a t i o n . Young people were moving to seek employment, education and entertainment and older people m i g r a t e d to p l a c e s which would be congenial for r e t i r e m e n t . Thus the " i n c i d e n c e " as w e l l as the " i n t e n s i t y " of f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y v a r i e d 1 / f r o m place to place. A mong the census d i v i s i o n s , the crude b i r t h rate was above average where the young and middle-aged adults f o r m e d an unusually high p r o p o r t i o n of the population, p r o v i d e d of c o u r s e that there was no r e a s o n f o r f e r t i l i t y to be a b n o r m a l l y low. Census d i v i s i o n s 6, in 1951, was the exception that p r o v e d the r u l e . Although the percentage of adults was s l i g h t l y below average, the sex balance was c l o s e r than elsewhere, and the p r o p o r t i o n of m a r r i e d persons was above average. But i n detail, there was no c l o s e c o r r e l a t i o n between age s t r u c t u r e and the crude b i r t h rate. Some a r e a s which had a rate higher than the average i n one year were below i t i n another. The v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s r e c o r d s show that the y e a r to year v a r i a t i o n s i n the numbers of births and deaths, and i n the d i f f e r e n c e s between them were not at a l l s i m i l a r to the pulse of growth at the p r o v i n c i a l l e v e l . T h i s might have been due to fluctuation 16. Donald J. Bogue, "Population Distributions,"', 1 The Study of . /. Fig. 18 - 66 -i n the r e l a t i v e strength of f a c t o r s affecting a l l a r e a s , or to the operation of different influences i n each region. It a l s o bears witness to the effects of i n - and out-m i g r a t i o n on the age s t r u c t u r e and v i t a l p r o c e s s e s of the population of each a r e a . The crude death rate showed a s i m i l a r g e n e r a l c o r r e spondence with the age st r u c t u r e , being higher where the p r o p o r t i o n of elderly-people was above average. But again there were detai l e d v a r i a t i o n s which did not f a l l into any simple a r e a l or t e m p o r a l pattern. A g e -sp e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y r a t e s , i f know^, would prov i d e the key to this v a r i a t i o n . Census d i v i s i o n 6, i n 1951, was again an exception to the g e n e r a l r u l e , perhaps because the older generations were predominantly male, so the m o r t a l i t y for these age groups would be unusually high. Census d i v i s i o n 9 a l s o had a below average p r o p o r t i o n of e l d e r l y people, but a r e l a t i v e l y high death rate i n 1951. The sex r a t i o would be r e s p o n s i b l e for part of this discrepancy. The m o r t a l i t y r a t e s for Indians were much higher than for the white population; i n the North-west of the p r o v i n c e and on the N o r t h e r n Coast, where the p r o p o r t i o n of natives i n the population was unusually high, the m o r t a l i t y r a t e s were affected by these s o c i a l and ethnic d i f f e r e n t i a l s . The 1961 patterns of age st r u c t u r e and death r a t e s were i n general agreement, though again there was no exact c o r r e l a t i o n between the strength of these m e a s u r e s . 16. (continued) Population, ed. P h i l i p M. Hauser and Otis Dudley Duncan (Chicago; U n i v e r s i t y of Chicago P r e s s , 1959), p. 383. - 67 -S p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y r a t e s and the age s t r u c t u r e of the population d e t e r m i n e d the rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n each part of the prov i n c e . But v a r i a t i o n s i n these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were not the major cause of divergence between the rate i n each a r e a and the p r o v i n c i a l rate. M i g r a t i o n during the decade, i n v a r i a b l y selective by age and sex, and sometimes by other c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as well, affected the subsequent pattern of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n each a r e a . T h i s effect was p a r t i c u l a r l y strong i n many parts of B r i t i s h Columbia, since i t was the groups with the highest f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y r a t e s which dominated m i g r a t i o n . E v e n if there was no net m i g r a t i o n gain or l o s s of population during the decade, the in c e s s a n t back and for t h movement of the population, i n c l u d i n g both l o n g - t e r m and t e m p o r a r y m i g r a t i o n s , i n e v i t a b l y m o d i f i e d the pattern of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n the are a s affected by such m i g r a t i o n s . T i m i n g within the decade was another determinant of the demo-graphic impact of m i g r a t i o n . E a r l y i n - m i g r a t i o n of young adults r a i s e d the crude b i r t h rate; even i f subsequent out-migration c a n c e l l e d the o r i g i n a l d i r e c t gain, the population had meanwhile been augmented i n d i r e c t l y .by the contribution of migr a n t s to n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . The K i t i m a t a r e a showed a tendency towards change of this type. The - 68 -opposite effect o c c u r r e d i n a r e a s to which older people were m i g r a t i n g . The a r e a s of o u t - m i g r a t i o n e x p e r i e n c e d c o m p l e m e n t a r y m o d i f i c a t i o n s to the n a t u r a l component of population change: l o s s of young adults depleted the potential f or n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e in the Kootenays, f o r example. In general, a r e a s with a high rate of net m i g r a t i o n a l gain of population a l s o e x p e r i e n c e d a rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e which was above the average (cf. the r a t e s i n the examples of type 4 change, F i g u r e s 15-17). C o n v e r s e l y , net o u t - m i g r a t i o n was u s u a l l y a contributor to, if not the only cause, of an unusually low rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e . The scatter of points on F i g u r e s 15-17 show that not a l l p arts of the p r o v i n c e d i s p l a y e d a c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between the two components, but there was at l e a s t a g e n e r a l tendency i n this d i r e c t i o n . It i s i m p o s s i b l e to account f u l l y f o r a l l the v a r i a t i o n i n the rate of net m i g r a t i o n i n the province; even for the ten l a r g e census d i v i s i o n s the data on employment changes a r e r e n d e r e d u s e l e s s by changes in definition between 1951 and 1961. E v e n so, i t seems that there was a degree of c o r r e s p o n d e n c e between net m i g r a t i o n and economic growth, although it was b l u r r e d by s o c i a l c l a s s , i m p e r f e c t communication, the r e l a t i v e " i n h a b i t a b i l i t y " of c e r t a i n a r e a s and the status and stigma attached to v a r i o u s occupations, as w e l l as the a b i l i t y of the i n i t i a l population of each a r e a to capture the a v a i l a b l e opportunities. - 69 -Despite the a u r a of doubt, and the q u a l i f i c a t i o n s which must surr o u n d any attempt at explanation, i t can be stated that economic growth and decline, through net m i g r a t i o n , was the f a c t o r p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s i b l e for the d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of the o v e r a l l rate of population change i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a during the nineteen-fifties,, N a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was by no means an i n v a r i a n t element but "the r a p i d i t y and magnitude of the d i f f e r e n t i a l impacts that accompany m o d e r n economic growth a r e such that the v i t a l p r o c e s s e s of b i r t h and death can play but a m i n o r r o l e i n adjusting the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population to economic opportunities in different parts of the country. They do not n e c e s s a r i l y follow the d i r e c t i o n s r e q u i r e d to m a x i m i s e these adjustments, and i f they do, t h e i r effect upon the age s t r u c t u r e i s so delayed that i t cannot c o n c e i v a b l y provide adult w o r k e r s when and where they a r e r e q u i r e d " . 1? T o account f o r a r e a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the rate of population change i n t e r m s of economic opportunities i s an o v e r s i m p l i f i c a t i o n of the complexity of the i n t e r a c t i o n of demographic and economic p r o c e s s e s . Although many s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s b l u r r e d the c l a r i t y of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between these p r o c e s s e s , i t i s n e v e r t h e l e s s true that i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a in the 1951-61 p e r i o d the incidence of economic opportunity was the most important single f a c t o r affecting population growth and decline. Just as the growth of population f o r the p r o v i n c e as a whole p a r a l l e l e d the p r o g r e s s of the economy, through 17. E v e r e t t S. L e e et a L Population R e d i s t r i b u t i o n and E c o n o m i c  Growth, United States, 1870-1950, V o l . I: M e t h o d o l o g i c a l  C o n s i d e r a t i o n s and R e f e r e n c e T a b l e s (Philadelphia: A m e r i c a n P h i l o s o p h i c a l Society, 1957), p. 2. - 70 -time, so migration as the "main mechanism of adjustment" depended primarily upon opportunities for employment. It remains to assess more exactly the impact of population growth in British Columbia as a whole on the distribution of population, and the respective roles of natural increase and net migration in bringing about changes in the distribution pattern. t I C H A P T E R F O U R T H E I M P A C T O F P O P U L A T I O N G R O W T H ON T H E D I S T R I B U T I O N O F P O P U L A T I O N Behin d the d i v e r s i t y of the a r e a l pattern of population growth and decline l i e s the c e n t r a l question of this thesis: how did the r e m a r k a b l e growth of population i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a between 1951 and 1961 affect the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population? The examination of r e d i s t r i b u t i o n w i l l s t r e s s r e g i o n a l rather than l o c a l shifts, because the census subdivisions a r e the b a s i c unit of a n a l y s i s . Although the v a l i d i t y of the c o n c l u s i o n s i s l i m i t e d to this scale, the a p p roach i l l u s t r a t e d here c o u l d e a s i l y be a p p l i e d at any other scale, p r o v i d e d data were a v a i l a b l e . Chapter T h r e e showed that there were wide divergences between the rate of population growth i n each census s u b d i v i s i o n and the rate for the p r o v i n c e as a whole. These departures meant that the share of the p r o v i n c i a l population i n each s u b d i v i s i o n was changing, a c c o r d i n g to whether the rate of change was p o s i t i v e or negative, g r e a t e r or l e s s than the 39. 8% rate for the province. In fact, v e r y few a r e a s grew at this rate (see F i g u r e 15). E v e r y one of these divergences affected the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the total population among the - 71 -- 72 -census subd i v i s i o n s . The effects of a l l the v a r i a t i o n s on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population a r e , the r e f o r e , i n t r i c a t e l y interwoven. The degree to which d i f f e r e n c e s i n the ra t e s of change were r e f l e c t e d imthe pattern of population d i s t r i b u t i o n depended on the amount of growth i n each a r e a . If a l l a r e a s had r e c e i v e d a share of the total growth i n the p r o v i n c e which was p r o p o r t i o n a l to their share of the 1951 population, there would have been no change i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n pattern over the decade. However, some are a s r e c e i v e d m o r e than their " f a i r s h a r e " of the total growth, others s u f f e r e d an ac t u a l or r e l a t i v e decline. If the most populous a r e a s had grown m o r e r a p i d l y than the average, then their importance as concentrations i n the pattern of d i s t r i b u t i o n would have become m o r e marked, at the expense of the l e s s r a p i d l y growing and the d e c l i n i n g parts of the p r o v i n c e . C o n v e r s e l y , the pattern would be smoothed a l i t t l e if the d i s t r i b u t i o n of change had favo u r e d the l e s s populated subdivisions. L a c k of coincidence between the population pattern and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of growth i s not i n i t s e l f s u f f i c i e n t to b r i n g about r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . The actual growth i n each a r e a must a l s o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y different f r o m the amount which i s p r o p o r t i o n a l to the percentage d i s t r i b u t i o n of the p r o v i n c i a l population. In this chapter, the changes between 1951 and 1961 i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a w i l l be examined in these t e r m s , the extent to which each component of change i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r - 73 -the shifts w i l l be a s s e s s e d , and c e r t a i n m e a s u r e s of d i s t r i b u t i o n a l change w i l l be taken. The percentage d i s t r i b u t i o n of the total growth of population among the census subdivisions of the p r o v i n c e i s shown i n F i g u r e 19, and i n Table 11 of Appendix A. The unevenness of this pattern r e s e m b l e s that of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i t s e l f . T h e r e was not, however, complete agreement between these two patterns, which a r e c o m p a r e d i n F i g u r e 20. The c o e f f i c i e n t of c o r r e l a t i o n between the percentage d i s t r i b u t i o n of population, i n 1951, as the independent v a r i a b l e and the percentage d i s t r i b u t i o n of the total growth of population i n the province, as the dependent v a r i a b l e , i s .911.^ If the two patterns had been i d e n t i c a l , a l l the points i n F i g u r e 20 would have f a l l e n along the diagonal l i n e , which r e p r e s e n t s the p r o v i n c i a l r a t e of growth, and the i n c r e a s e which would have taken place i n each 2 s u b d i v i s i o n if the average rate had applied everywhere. The greatest deviations f r o m the line a r e f o r c e r t a i n census subdivisions which e x p e r i e n c e d spectacular economic and demographic growth or s e r i o u s decline, during the decade. The K i t i m a t and Kamloops a r e a s , f o r example, gained at the expense of parts of the Kootenays, the Okanagan, the C o a s t and the Lower Mainland. Within 1. Value of t = 14. 67, s i g n i f i c a n t at 99.9% l e v e l of p r o b a b i l i t y . 2. Such a d i s t r i b u t i o n would have o c c u r r e d if the population i n each census s u b d i v i s i o n had been " s t a b l e " (s'ee Appendix D). Fig. 1 9 DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL CHANGE CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS • 3 0 -* $ o y ^ CHANGE / • —1 • / - 2 0 -o z • PROVI • • • • / u. O PERCENTAGE 6 • PERCENTAGE 6 / NOT SHOWN / 4C 40'4, 32-6 / 4D 7-8, 16-7 ' . 4E 5-9,5-8 • * / / • • • / 5A 10-4,8-8 • • • o-/ / o • • / • / • • —1 r ~ i i i ' i • 10 20 3 0 4 0 • • PERCENTAGE OF 1951 POPULATION OF B.C. Fig. 20 - 74 -the Vancouver m e t r o p o l i t a n region, the c e n t r a l c o r e grew r e l a t i v e l y slowly, the suburban fr i n g e m o r e quickly. The pattern of population growth and decline can once again be broken down into the n a t u r a l and m i g r a t i o n a l components of change. F i g u r e s 21 and 22 show that the d i s t r i b u t i o n of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e among the census subdivisions was m o r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i t s e l f than was the o v e r a l l population change. A greater m a j o r i t y of the points i n the scatter d i agrams f e l l c l o s e to the "average" li n e and there were fewer extreme deviations for n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e than 3 for total change. The value of r i s .987. T h i s c o n f i r m s the c o n c l u s i o n drawn i n Chapter Three, that the f a c t o r s which cause l o c a l v a r i a t i o n s i n the rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e - age s t r u c t u r e , sex ra t i o , s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y r a t e s and d i f f e r e n t i a l m i g r a t i o n - a r e r e l a t i v e l y weak, and that the amount of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e in an a r e a r e f l e c t s quite c l o s e l y the s i z e of the i n i t i a l population. The exception that proves the r u l e i s that wherever there was an unusually high r a t e of net m i g r a t i o n , positive or negative, there the potential f o r n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was a l t e r e d (see Chapter T h r e e ) . N a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , therefore, had the effect of c o n f i r m i n g the pattern of population d i s t r i b u t i o n . Where n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was the dominant component of population change, type 2 and 3, there was only a slight change i n the p r o p o r t i o n 3. Value of t = 40. 66, s i g n i f i c a n t at 99. 9% l e v e l of p r o b a b i l i t y . DISTRIBUTION OF NATURAL INCREASE CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS NOT SHOWN 4 C 40-4 , 31-3 O 10 2 0 3 0 4 0 PERCENTAGE OF 1951 POPULAT ION OF B.C. Fig. 22 - 75 -of the p r o v i n c i a l population, f o r example the West Kootenays, and C e n t r a l and N o r t h e r n Vancouver Island. The d i s t r i b u t i o n of net m i g r a t i o n , on the other hand, pre s e n t e d a greater c o n t r a s t with the 1951 d i s t r i b u t i o n of population (see F i g u r e s 4 23 and 24). The value of r i s .871. The poor agreement between the two patterns was not only s t a t i s t i c a l but would be expected on t h e o r e t i c a l and e m p i r i c a l grounds as w e l l . While n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was d e t e r m i n e d by ubiquitous f a c t o r s , the elements i n the s o c i a l and economic background which affected i n - and o u t - m i g r a t i o n were not the same in a l l parts of the province; even where s i m i l a r f o r c e s were at work, their strength v a r i e d greatly. M i g r a t i o n could not, t h e r e f o r e , be " p r e d i c t e d " f r o m the 1951 d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i n the same way that n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was both s t a t i s t i c a l l y and c a u s a l l y r e l a t e d to the i n i t i a l s i z e of the population. ^ The d i s t r i b u t i o n of net m i g r a t i o n 4. Value of t = 11. 79, s i g n i f i c a n t at 99. 9% l e v e l of p r o b a b i l i t y . 5. N a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to the si z e of the 1951 population, because the r e l e v a n t demographic determinants were a l r e a d y i n existence, for example, the age s t r u c t u r e of the population. The time p e r i o d was l e s s than a generation, so n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e could not r e a c t upon i t s e l f as i t does i n a longer p e r i o d . Thus the m a i n di s t u r b i n g elements were those a s s o c i a t e d with the s e l e c t i v i t y and the v a r y i n g intensity of m i g r a t i o n . M i g r a t i o n , on the other hand, has an immediate impact upon i t s e l f , because the a r r i v a l of departure of a number of m i g r a n t s affects the subsequent demand for employment. DISTRIBUTION OF NET MIGRATION 1 0 0 MLS. I I •IN-MIGRATION o-OUT-MIGRATION 0 5 % OF PROVINCIAL NET MIGRATION 4 D 1 4 0 % IN SEVERAL SUBDIVISIONS THE CHANGE WAS LESS THAN 0<5 % OF THE B.C. CHANGE. THESE CHANGES WERE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT, HOWEVER. Fig. 23 DISTRIBUTION OF NET MIGRATION CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS Fig. 24 - 76 -therefore offset the co r r e s p o n d e n c e between the patterns of population d i s t r i b u t i o n i n 1951 and n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e over the decade, to produce the " c o m p r o m i s e " pattern of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of total change. Those parts of the pr o v i n c e which gained or lo s t population by net m i g r a t i o n at an unusually high or low rate were, therefore, the are a s which were most r e s p o n s i b l e for d i s t r i b u t i o n a l change. The effects of net m i g r a t i o n upon the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population were a combination of the many i n t e r l o c k i n g s t reams of m i g r a t i o n to and f r o m the v a r i o u s parts of the pro v i n c e . Unfortunately i t i s not p o s s i b l e to make any r e l i a b l e systematic estimates of the numbers of persons i n v o l v e d i n each of these streams of movement. 6 The i m p r e s s i o n gained f r o m a surv e y of the census data on im m i g r a t i o n , b i r t h p l a c e , and the net m i g r a t i o n r e s i d u a l s suggests that it was the mi g r a n t s f r o m ov e r s e a s who were the mainstay of the movement to the " r e s o u r c e f r o n t i e r " , and that Canadians p a r t i c i p a t e d to a gre a t e r extent i n the c i t y w a r d movement. The notable exception was that m i g r a n t s f r o m other p r o v i n c e s , and a l s o some of the B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a -b o r n population were m o r e strongly oriented towards the Peace R i v e r Country than the other m i g r a n t s . Recent i m m i g r a n t s moved into a l l p a rts of the province, even the regi o n s f r o m which there was a net l o s s of population by ou t - m i g r a t i o n (see footnote 8, Chapter Two). The total f o r e i g n - b o r n popululation (that i s , i m m i g r a n t s plus p ersons 6. The r e s u l t s of the 1961 Census Sample Survey of M i g r a t i o n w i l l p rovide some data for this purpose. - 77 -who had been i n Canada for many ye a r s ) showed a somewhat dif f e r e n t pattern of m i g r a t i o n . T h e r e was an outstandingly high concentration of the m i g r a n t s i n the south-west of the province, and a c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y s p a r s i t y i n other r e g i o n s . M i g r a t i o n f r o m a l l sources, within and without the province, was concentrated i n the south-west, to the extent of n e a r l y four -fiflhs of the total f r o m each source, and p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the Vancouver region. The la t t e r , and the C e n t r a l and N o r t h e r n In t e r i o r d i s t r i c t s , including the Peace, gained a disproportionate share of m i g r a n t s f r o m outside the province. The r e s t of the province was b y p a s s e d by a l l but a s m a l l m i n o r i t y of the newcomers. The sum total of a l l the separate s t r e a m s of m i g r a t i o n produced the pattern of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of net m i g r a t i o n a l gains and l o s s e s of ! population, which were the m a j o r elements i n r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . N a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was not a completely separate component of d i f f e r e n t i a l growth and decline of population - there i s a slight positive r e l a t i o n s h i p with net m i g r a t i o n , which was shown i n the scatter d iagrams i n Chapter ..Three. T h i s li n k s e r v e d to r e i n f o r c e the effects of m i g r a t i o n upon the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population. What was the s i g n i f i c a n c e of these effects - were the v a r i e g a t e d patterns of population change d i s t i n c t i v e enough to cause r a d i c a l change i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population, or was there c o n f i r m a t i o n of the e x i s t i n g p a ttern? - 78 -T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l ways i n which the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i n 1961 can be c o m p a r e d with that i n 1951. Simple R e g r e s s i o n : A r e g r e s s i o n of the 1961 pattern of population d i s t r i b u t i o n on that of 1951 i s a f a i r l y r e f i n e d measure, since the c o e f f i c i e n t of c o r r e l a t i o n i s a u t o m a t i c a l l y weighted by the percentages of the p r o v i n c i a l population i n ach a r e a unit. It i s sen s i t i v e to changes i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i n p r o p o r t i o n to the numbers of p ersons involved. It i s r e p r e s e n t e d g r a p h i c a l l y i n F i g u r e 25. A g a i n , the diagonal line i s not a true r e g r e s s i o n l i n e . It i s the line on which a l l the points would f a l l if the 1951 and the 1961 patterns of population d i s t r i b u t i o n , among the census sub-d i v i s i o n s were i d e n t i c a l . The axes measure percentages of the p r o v i n c i a l population at the r e s p e c t i v e dates; since the proportionate gains and l o s s e s over the whole a r e a balance each other, this line a pproximates to a line r e p r e s e n t i n g a r e g r e s s i o n equation. The scatter of points on the d i a g r a m shows that there was some but not a great deal of d i f f e r e n c e between the two d i s t r i b u t i o n patterns. The c o e f f i c i e n t of c o r r e l a t i o n i s . 997. Inspection of the scatter d i a g r a m shows that while there was f a i r l y c l o s e c o r r e s p o n d ence between the two patterns, s l i g h t l y m o r e than half l o s t p a r t of t h e i r share of the p r o v i n c i a l population. The r e l a t i v e gains were fewer but l a r g e r and m o r e concentrated. T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s somewhat 7. Value of t = 85. 38, significant at 99. 9% l e v e l of p r o b a b i l i t y . REDISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 PERCENTAGE OF 1951 POPULATION OF. B.C. NOT SHOWN 4 C (40 4 , 3 8 2) 4 E (5-9,5 8) 4D (7 8,10-3) 5 A (10-4,100) Fig. 25 - 79 -o b s c u r e d by the si z e of the census subdivisions: the data for the i n c o r p o r a t e d p l a c e s shows more c l e a r l y that a few a r e a s witnessed r a p i d growth and became important new centres of population, while l a r g e a r e a s d e c l i n e d i n importance. T h i s does not n e c e s s a r i l y i m p l y that the population of the p r o v i n c e was becoming m o r e concentrated; instead, new c e n t r e s were appearing to challenge the older n u c l e i . T h ese changes can be demonstrated i n other ways by the use of s e v e r a l i n d i c e s of d i s t r i b u t i o n and of change. Index of net r e d i s t r i b u t i o n : T h i s i s "a m e a s u r e of displacement . . . the m i n i m u m percentage of persons who would have had to change their a r e a s of r e s i d e n c e i n a given year to produce the percentage 8 d i s t r i b u t i o n of an e a r l i e r year; '.' F o r the f o r t y - s i x census sub-d i v i s i o n s of B r i t i s h Columbia, between 1951 and 1961, the index of net r e d i s t r i b u t i o n has a value of 6. 0%. T h i s r e p r e s e n t s a m i n i m u m displacement of n e a r l y 98, 000 persons that i s needed to account for the d i f f e r e n c e s between the 1951 and 1961 d i s t r i b u t i o n patterns. Not a l l the d i s p l a c e m e n t can be attributed to m i g r a t i o n within the 8. A =i I Xi - Y t l , where Y, i s the percentage of the S i 1 1 total population i n the i t h a r e a unit i n a given year, and X, the p r o p o r t i o n i n an e a r l i e r year; k i s the number of units into which the total a r e a i s divided. (Otis Dudley Duncan, Ra y P. C u z z o r t , and B e v e r l y Duncan, S t a t i s t i c a l Geography (Glencoe: F r e e P r e s s , 1961] p. 88). - 80 -province; a r e a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y , and the destinations of migr a n t s f r o m outside B.C., must a l s o be taken into account. It should be noted, however, that the me a s u r e underestimates g r o s s displacement to the extent that m i g r a t i o n a l gains and l o s s e s p a r t l y offset one another. It v a r i e s i n v e r s e l y with the average si z e of the a r e a units. Thus the index of net r e d i s t r i -bution does not adequately i l l u s t r a t e changes i n d i s t r i b u t i o n where there was a wide range i n the s i z e s of the a r e a l units for which data were a v a i l a b l e , and a l s o where the i n t e r c e n s a l growth of population was r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , the index p r o v i d e s a valuable m e a s u r e of the m i n i m u m number of persons needed to account for the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . Index of concentration: T h i s index has a f o r m s i m i l a r to 9 that of the index of net r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . Both a r e r e l a t e d to the L o r e n z c u r v e (see below). The v a l i d i t y of the f o r m e r i s s i m i l a r l y 9. C =^2^ j X, - Y,j , where X i i s the percentage of the total i=l population, and Y, the percentage of the total land a r e a i n each subdivision, and where there a r e k a r e a l units. The index has a value of O if the density of population i s uniform, i n c r e a s i n g towards 100 with greater concentration of population i n a few a r e a s . It can be i n t e r p r e t e d as "the percentage of the p r o v i n c i a l population which would have had to move f r o m their a r e a s of pr e s e n t r e s i d e n c e i n or d e r to make the de n s i t i e s of a l l a r e a l units equal ( d i s r e g a r d i n g any uneveness within areal units), " i b i d . , pp. 83-4. - 81 -r e s t r i c t e d to the s p e c i f i e d set of areal units and its value v a r i e s i n v e r s e l y with the average siz e and the range of the s i z e s of the a r e a s u b d i v i s i o n s . It d e s c r i b e s a static pattern, but changes i n di s t r i b u t i o n can be i l l u s t r a t e d by comparing a s e r i e s of in d i c e s f o r s e v e r a l dates. The values of the index of concentration for the census sub d i v i s i o n s of B r i t i s h C olumbia at the three census dates are: -1951 72.4 1956 71.8 10 1961 71.4 The change i n the values of the index i s slight but it is sig n i f i c a n t f o r a p e r i o d of time as short as a decade. It 'shows the tendency towards a m o r e even d i s t r i b u t i o n of population, among the census subdi v i s i o n s , which i s a l s o shown by the other m e a s u r e s . L o r e n z C u r v e s : The i n d i c e s of net r e d i s t r i b u t i o n and of concentration of population a r e r e l a t e d to the L o r e n z curve; d i s t r i b u t i o n a l change can be i l l u s t r a t e d g r a p h i c a l l y through use of such c u r v e s . ^ The in d i c e s measure, r e s p e c t i v e l y , the ar e a s between 10. Indices of concentration c a l c u l a t e d f r o m census data and f r o m a l i s t of the land a r e a s of the census subdivisions of B r i t i s h Columbia, the latt e r being supplied by D. L. R a l s t o n (Dominion B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , Vancouver). 11. J.K. Wright, "Some M e a s u r e s of D i s t r i b u t i o n s " , A n n a l s of the  A s s o c i a t i o n of A m e r i c a n Geographers, XXVII, No. 4 continued . . . - 82 -two c u r v e s f o r s u c c e s s i v e dates, and between one c u r v e and the diagonal of the graph. F i g u r e 26 shows the L o r e n z c u r v e s f o r the total populations of the census subdivisions f o r 1951 and 1961. A g a i n there a r e signs of a slight tendency towards a m o r e even d i s t r i b u t i o n of population. C e n t r e of G r a v i t y : The shifting p o s i t i o n of the centre of g r a v i t y of the population of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ( F i g u r e 27) p r o v i d e s another i l l u s t r a t i o n of the s m a l l but n e v e r t h e l e s s noticeable changes which took place during 12 the decade. The shift of the centre of gravity, f i r s t to the northwest and then to the northeast, r e f l e c t s the changes which have been shown i n other 13 ways. The growing importance of the r e s o u r c e f r o n t i e r of the province, 11. (continued) . . . (December, 1937), pp. 177-211; Otis Dudley Duncan, "The M e a s u r e m e n t of Population D i s t r i b u t i o n , " Population Studies, X I (1957), pp. 27-45. 12. The p o s i t i o n of the B. C. centre of g r a v i t y i s a function of the value (that i s , population size) and the p o s i t i o n of the r e s p e c t i v e centres of g r a v i t y of the census sub d i v i s i o n s . E s t i m a t e d c o n t r o l points were used for the computation of the p r o v i n c i a l centre; their value was changed for each census date, of course, but no allowance was made for p o s s i b l e changes i n their p ositions. To the extent that e r r o r was i n t r o d u c e d i n this way and that the i n i t i a l estimations of the p o s i t i o n of the points was i n c o r r e c t , the computed p o s i t i o n of the centres of g r a v i t y of the B. C. population i s a r t i f i c i a l . The movement of the point follows, however, the path which one would expect i t to have taken during the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s . 13. I r a M. Robinson, New I n d u s t r i a l Towns on Canada's R e s o u r c e F r o n t i e r ("Department of Geography R e s e a r c h Paper, " No. 73, Chicago: U n i v e r s i t y of Chicago, 1962). LORENZ CURVES IOOI BASED ON DATA FOR CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS Fig. 26 - 83 -e s p e c i a l l y the spectacular developments at K i t i m a t and i n the P e a c e R i v e r Country, the d e c l i n i n g status of the Southern Interior v a l l e y s , and the continued dominance of the South-west Lowlands, a r e a l l e x p r e s s e d i n the locus of the centre of g r a v i t y . U r b a n / R u r a l D i s t r i b u t i o n of Population: The inadequacies of the census definitions of "urban" and " r u r a l " l i m i t the usefulness of these c a t e g o r i e s of d i s t r i b u t i o n . The 1956 definitions a r e the only 14 set which can be used f o r both 1951 and 1961; they hinge upon the l e g a l status of t e r r i t o r y , so that the effect of boundary changes on the s i z e of the population i n each category may be somewhat m i s -leading. T a b l e 3 shows the changing s t r u c t u r e of the population of the p r o v i n c e and of each census d i v i s i o n , and Table 4 shows the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the urban and r u r a l populations of B.C. among the d i v i s i o n s . (The 1956 data were omitted for c l a r i t y : they show a patte i n t e r m e d i a t e between the 1951 and 1961 distributions;.) ! T a b l e 3 shows that i n e v e r y census d i v i s i o n the degree of u r b a n i z a t i o n i n c r e a s e d between 1951 and 1961 )( The greatest changes were i n the P r i n c e George regions, the N o r t h e r n Coast and the P e a c e R i v e r country. These were ar e a s i n which economic growth and development was m o s t r a p i d , and i n which the staple elements of growth were either u r b a n - o r i e n t e d or were r e s p o n s i b l e for a 14. See Appendix E . - 84 -T A B L E 3 U r b a n / R u r a l S t r u c t u r e of Population, Census D i v i s i o n s (Based on 1956 Definitions) 1 Census D i v i s i o n s Percentage of Population U r b a n R u r a l F a r m R u r a l N o n - F a r m T o t a l R u r a l T951 1961 1951 1961 1951 1961 1951 1961 1 44 52 9 6 46 41 56 47 2 49 54 17 8 37 37 53 45 3 43 53 29 20 30 31 58 51 4 88 91 5 3 7 6 12 9 5 65 73 4 3 31 24 35 27 6 30 37 26 15 44 48 70 63 7 42 65 3 2 55 33 58 35 8 19 39 21 11 60 50 81 61 9 41 65 1 1 58 34 59 35 10 25 47 39 17 36 36 75 53 B.C. 71 77 9 5 21 18 29 23 Source: Census of Canada, 1956 and 1961 - 85 -m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of i n d u s t r i a l and s e r v i c e a c t i v i t i e s i n the towns of the r e s p e c t i v e regions. F u r t h e r m o r e , a g r i c u l t u r e was either non-existent or overshadowed by the development of other r e s o u r c e s . The counterpart to this p i c t u r e of r a p i d u r b a n i z a t i o n was the decline, i n a l l parts of the p r o v i n c e , of the r u r a l p r o p o r t i o n of the population; again, this change was most m a r k e d i n the north, while i n the South and South-east, a g r i c u l t u r e r e m a i n e d a f a i r l y important occupation. R u r a l depopulation aff e c t e d a l l p a rts of the p r o v i n c e , however, except where the spawning of logging a c t i v i t i e s and m i n e r a l p r o s p e c t i n g and working caused l o c a l i n c r e a s e s i n the n o n - i n c o r p o r a t e d (and t h e r e f o r e r u r a l ) population. That the decline of the r u r a l population was, p r i m a r i l y an exodus f r o m the f a r m s i s shown by the fact that i n most census d i v i s i o n s , the decline of the r u r a l f a r m sector of the population was r e l a t i v e l y m o r e se r i o u s than the drop i n the n o n - f a r m population. In a few r e g i o n s the latter was stationary or i n c r e a s e d sli g h t l y , r e f l e c t i n g the s p r e a d of the a c t i v i t i e s mentioned above or the overflowing of towns f r o m within their i n c o r p o r a t e d a r e a s , and the movement of r e t i r e d persons to 15 the countryside.. Table 4 shows the d i s t r i b u t i o n of each of these s e c t o r s of the 15. The building of summer homes i n a number of regions would not affect the census totals since the de jure method, rather than the de facto method, i s used for census enumeration. - 86 -T A B L E 4 D i s t r i b u t i o n of the  U r b a n and R u r a l Populations of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a Census D i v i s i o n s (Based on 1956 Definitions) Census D i v i s i o n s P e rcentage of the P r o v i n c i a l Population of each c l a s s U r b a n R u r a l ; F a r m R u r a l N o n - F a r m T o t a l R u r a l 1951 1'961 1'951 1961 1951 1961 1951 1961 1 1. 5 1.4 2. 6 2. 4 5.4 4. 8 4. 6 4. 3 2 3.4 3. 1 9.8 6.4 9.0 8.9 9.4 8.4 3 3.9 3. 8 22. 2 21.7 9.4 9. 5 13. 2 12. 3 4 68. 6 66. 1 30. 7 31. 7 19. 3 18. 6 22. 7 21.5 5 16. 7 16. 9 8. 9 9.8 27. 8 24. 0 22. 2 20. 8 6 1.5 2. 0 10. 9 11.4 7.6 10. 8 8. 6 11. 0 7 0.9 1. 1 0. 5 0. 5 4. 2 2.4 3.1 2. 0 8 0.9 2. 3 8.4 9.6 10. 1 12. 7 9.6 12. 0 9 1.0 2. 0 0. 3 0. 2 5.0 4.4 3. 6 3. 5 10 0.4 1.2 5. 6 6. 2 2. 2 3. 8 3. 2 4. 3 Source: Census of Canada, 1956 and 1961 population over the province as a whole. D i v i s i o n 4 contained two-thirds of the urban population, although i t s dominance d e c l i n e d a l i t t l e d u ring the decade as the c e n t r a l and n o r t h e r n i n t e r i o r , and parts of the coast, grew i n an urban fashion. The r u r a l population was m o re evenly distributed, although D i v i s i o n s 4 and 5 each had one f i f t h of the p r o v i n c i a l total. D u r i n g the decade there was a slight shift away f r o m the southern p a r t of the p r o v i n c e towards the north and c e n t r a l regions, among the r u r a l population. T h i s t r e n d was p r i m a r i l y due to the changing d i s t r i b u t i o n of the r u r a l n o n - f a r m population, because of its n u m e r i c a l importance. T h e r e was a p a r t l y c o n t r a s t i n g movement of the r u r a l f a r m population - there were slight i n c r e a s e s i n the concentration of this group i n the Lower M a i n l a n d and on Vancouver Island, and i n the F r a s e r - T h o m p s o n region. But there were a l s o tendencies which c o r r e s p o n d to those i n the other s e c t o r s of the population, the i n c r e a s e s i n the percentage of the p r o v i n c i a l total i n the P e a c e R i v e r country and the P r i n c e George C a r i b o o d i s t r i c t . It i s h a r d to be any m o r e s p e c i f i c or a n a l y t i c a l about the trends i n the u r b a n / r u r a l s t r u c t u r e and d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i n B r i t i s h C olumbia, without a c c e s s to m o r e r e f i n e d and r e l i a b l e d e t a i l e d data. The shifts taking place must be a n a l y s e d in greater d e t a i l at a l a r g e r scale; n e v e r t h e l e s s , this short account of the indications of change which a r e contained within the published census data may help to explain the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n which has been m e a s u r e d i n other ways. The changes - 88 -i n the u r b a n / r u r a l s t r u c t u r e and d i s t r i b u t i o n of the population indicate some of the p r o c e s s e s which contributed to the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n m e a s u r e d above. "Nothing has been m o r e prominent i n the post-war Canadian scene than the burgeoning of the urban centres and the s p r e a d of the B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a as i n other parts of Canada, and were concentrated on one dominant centre. In addition, however, there was another p u l l to the new i n d u s t r i a l towns i n the north - K i t i m a t , Dawson Creek, 17 F o r t St. John, P r i n c e George, and their l e s s e r counterparts. The developments on the r e s o u r c e f r o n t i e r were a l s o r e s p o n s i b l e for part of the growth, i n the e s t a b l i s h e d urban centres in the south-west. I n d u s t r i a l linkage, secondary p r o c e s s i n g , a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , and the growing demand f o r consumer goods and s e r v i c e s , t r a n s l a t e d 18 n o r t h e r n development into a " m u l t i p l i e r effect", which contributed to the growth of employment in other parts of the province, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the Vancouver region. Within the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s , and to a l e s s e r extent i n the s m a l l e r urban c e n t r e s of the province, there was a m a r k e d " c e n t r i f u g a l " tendency, - the r a p i d growth of the suburbs, 16. Bank of Nova Scotia, Monthly Review, M a y 1962, p. 3. 17. Robinson, i b i d . 18. R.E. Caves and R. H. Holton, The Canadian Economy: P r o s p e c t and R e t r o s p e c t (^Harvard E c o n o m i c Studies", CXLfJ. Cambridge, Mass.; H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ) pp. 60-73. 16 m e t r o p o l i t a n areas: V The " c e n t r i p e t a l " f o r c e s were as str-ong i n wholly or p a r t l y at thejsxpense of th.e_cen.tral a r e a s of each c i t y or town. Only i n the Vancouver r e g i o n was the scale of this movement l a r g e enough (and the census subdivisions s m a l l enough) to be r e f l e c t e d i n the changing pattern of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population among the census subdivisions of the p r o v i n c e . The m e a s u r e s of d i s t r i b u t i o n a l change, d i s c u s s e d above, a r e a l l s ummary i n d i c e s of changes i n the share of the p r o v i n c i a l population i n each subdivision. The details of these changes, and t h e i r l o c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e , a r e shown i n F i g u r e 27 (Appendix A, T a b l e 11). The greatest changes were i n the census subdivisions which contain P r i n c e George, K i t i m a t , Kamloops and Dawson Cre e k . The C a r i b o o , n o r t h e r n P e a c e R i v e r country,. C e n t r a l Vancouver Island and the P r i n c e R u p e r t r e g i o n a l s o i n c r e a s e d their share of the p r o v i n c i a l population somewhat. A gain of another type was in the Vancouver m e t r o p o l i t a n area, where census subdivisions 4C and 4D (combined on the map) together grew a l i t t l e f a s t e r than the p r o v i n c i a l average. A l l other a r e a s s u f f e r e d a r e l a t i v e l o s s of population, which was p a r t i c u l a r l y s e r i o u s on Vancouver Island and i n the v a l l e y s of the Southern In t e r i o r . The pattern of changes i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i s f o r m e d by the combination of the v a r i o u s patterns of change which have been d e s c r i b e d above. It shows the impact of population growth i n B r i t i s h Fig. 27 - 90 -Columbia, during the n i n e t e e n - f i f t i e s , on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population; i t m e a s u r e s the importance of gains and l o s s e s i n each census sub-d i v i s i o n against changes i n other p a r t s of the province, and against the o v e r a l l growth of population and i t s i n i t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n . The di f f e r e n t approaches to the a n a l y s i s of population change and d i s t r i -bution have a l l shown that there was active readjustment of the pattern of population d i s t r i b u t i o n to the c ontemporary s o c i a l and economic changes i n the p r o v i n c e . The shifts i n d i s t r i b u t i o n i n the nineteen-f i f ties did not match the d r a m a t i c and r e v o l u t i o n a r y changes i n the e a r l i e r h i s t o r y of the province, but they were i m p r e s s i v e enough f o r a single decade. B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a s t i l l has a "pioneer f r i n g e " and a " r e s o u r c e f r o n t i e r " , but even the r u s h to the "black gold" of the P e a c e has been outstripped by the r a p i d m e t r o p o l i t a n development i n the south-west of the p r o v i n c e . M o r e o v e r , the nature of the f r o n t i e r has changed. P i o n e e r f a r m e r s have complex m e c h a n i c a l equipment and m o d e r n homes; today's p r o s p e c t o r s and l o g g e r s a r e backed or employed by a highly c a p i t a l i z e d , integrated e n t e r p r i s e . The most spectacular r e s o u r c e developments provide the b a s i s for l a r g e , m o d e r n towns - Kit i m a t , Ocean F a l l s and the r e s t - but these, and the l e s s thoroughly o r g a n i z e d settlements a s s o c i a t e d with other n o r t h e r n developments, s h r i n k into i n s i g n i f i c a n c e beside the booming c i t i e s and the sprawling suburbs. Only time w i l l show which side of this double p i c t u r e i s the most sig n i f i c a n t f o r the future. The nineteen=fifties were a p e r i o d of t r a n s i t i o n : the m a i n outlines of the - 91' -pattern of population d i s t r i b u t i o n had a b a s i c sta b i l i t y , but within i t c e r t a i n i n t e r i o r c i t i e s and r e g i o n s emerged as potential m a j o r concentrations of population, counterweights to the p u l l of the South-west. The c o n c l u s i o n s of this thesis are i n e v i t a b l y b i a s e d by the use of a c e r t a i n set of a r e a l units which may have d i s t o r t e d the pattern of population change and r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . The s c a l e of a n a l y s i s meant that detailed d e s c r i p t i o n and explanation had to be s a c r i f i c e d at this stage. But i t i s hoped that this study, as a g e n e r a l " r e c o n n a i s s a n c e " survey, w i l l p r o v i d e a "map" on which the r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n of m o re s p e c i f i c p roblems, both systematic and r e g i o n a l , can be fixed, the scale of their s i g n i f i c a n c e measured, and the most convenient and r e w a r d i n g routes to them l a i d out. A P P E N D I X A S U P P L E M E N T A R Y T A B L E S T A B L E 5. - Population growth, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1871-1961. Census date Population Increase since l a s t census date 1871 36, 247 1881 49,459 13,212 36.4% 1891 98, 173 48, 714 98. 5% 1901 178,657 80,484 82. 0% 1911 392,480 213,823 119. 7% 1921 524,582 132,102 33. 7% 1931 694, 263 169, 681 32. 2% 1941 817, 861 • 123,598 17. 8% 1951 1, 165, 210 347, 349 233,254 b 42. 5% 1956 1, 398, 464 20. 0 % b 1961 1, 629, 082 230, 6 l 8 b 16. 5 % b Source: Canada, Dominion B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , Census of Canada: 1961 (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r ) . F i v e - y e a r i n c r e a s e only: the growth for the whole decade was 463, 872, a rate of 39. 8%. - 92 -T A B L E 6. - I n t e r c e n s a l estimates of population, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1951-61 (thousands) Date E s t i m a t e d Population June 1st, 1951° 1, 165 " " 1952 1, 205 " 1953 1» 248 " 11 1954 1, 295 " " 1955 1, 342 " 1956 b . 1, 398 January 1st, 1957 . . 1,449 June " " 1, 482 January " 1958 1, 524 June " " 1, 538 January " 1959 1. 556 June " " 1, 567 January " I960 1, 589 June " " 1, 602 January " 1961 1, 621 June " " b 1,629 (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , 1962). Census enumerations. The method used to p r e p a r e these estimates i s d e s c r i b e d i n Appendix C. - 94 -T A B L E 7. - Population Growth, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1951-61 E s t i m a t e s of A n n u a l Components (thousands) 1. N a t u r a l Increase and Net M i g r a t i o n Y e a r In i t i a l , T o t a l N a t u r a l Net D Population G r owth I n c r e a s e0 M i g r a t i o n 1951/2 1, 165 40 3.4% 17 1. 5% 23 2. 0% 1952/3 1, 205 43 3.6% 18 1. 5% 25 2. 1% 1953/4 1, 248 47 3.8% 20 1.6% 27 2. 2% 1954/5 1,295 47 3.6% 20 1. 6% 27 2. 1% 1955/6 1, 342 56 4.2% 22 1. 6% 34 2. 5% 1956/7 1, 398 84 6.0% 24 1. 7% 60 4. 3% 1957/8 1, 482 56 3. 8% 26 1. 8% 30 2. 0% 1958/9 1, 538 29 1.9% 25 1. 6% 4 0. 3% 1959/60 1, 567 35 2. 2% 26 1.7% 9 0.6% 1960/61 1, 602 27 1.7% 25 1. 5% 2 0. 1% T o t a l 1, 165 464 39.8% 224 19. 2% 240 20. 6% 2. B i r t h s and Deaths Y e a r B i r t h s c D e a t h s 0 1951/2 29 2. 5% 12 1. 0% 1952/3 31 2. 5% 12 1.0% 1953/4 32 2. 6% 12 1.0% 1954/5 33 2.6% 13 1.0% 1955/6 35 2. 6% 13 1.0% 1956/7 37 2.6% 13 1.0% 1957/8 40 2. 7% 14 0.9% 1958/9 39 2. 6%. 14 0.9% 1959/60 41 2. 6% 15 0.9% 1960/61 39 2.4% 14 0. 9% T o t a l 356 30. 5% 132 11.3% Table 7 continued June 1st to M a y 31st. Canada, Dominion B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , Census A n a l y s i s Section, Population of Canada by P r o v i n c e s : E s t i m a t e s for  I n t e r c e n s a l Y e a r s (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , 1962). c D e r i v e d f r o m monthly totals of b i r t h s and deaths, published i n Canada, D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s Section, V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V o l s . X X X , X X X I (Ottawa: King's P r i n t e r , 1950 and 1951); B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Health S e r v i c e s and H o s p i t a l Insurance, D i v i s i o n of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s . . . , V o l s . L X X I X - X C ( V i c t o r i a : Queen's P r i n t e r , 1950-61). - 96 -T A B L E 8. - C a p i t a l Investment, Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia, 1951 - 6 l a D o l l a r s per capita B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a Canada 1951 623 462 1952 673 503 1953 664 535 1954 571 507 1955 700 542 1956 973 649 1957 1, 073 684 1958 790 644 1959 804 648 I960 762 631 1961 765 608 Source: B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of F i n a n c e , A n E c o n o m i c Review of R e s o u r c e s , P r o d u c t i o n and Government Fi n a n c e , No. 22 ( V i c t o r i a : Queen's P r i n t e r , 1962), p. 83. - 97 -T A B L E 9. - Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of B i r t h s by Order, B r i t i s h Columbia, 1952-61 Y e a r P e r c e n t a g e of total b i r t h s i n each order 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 and above 1952 31. 0 29.4 19. 6 9.8 4. 5 2. 2 3. 5 1953 30. 2 28. 3 19.9 10.4 5. 1 2. 5 3. 6 1954 29.4 28. 1 20. 0 10. 7 5. 3 2. 6 3.9 1955 28.4 27. 3 20. 2 11.7 5. 6 2.9 3.9 1956 28. 8 26. 8 19. 8 11. 5 5.9 3.1 4. 1 1957 29.2 26.4 19. 5 11.5 5.9 3. 0 4. 5 1958 29. 3 25. 9 19. 5 11. 5 6. 2 3. 1 4. 5 1959 28. 0 26. 3 19. 4 12. 0 6.4 3.4 4. 5 1960 26. 7 26. 0 19. 8 12. 5 6.4 3. 6 5. 0 1961 26.4 25. 1 19.9 12. 7 7. 1 3. 6 5. 2 Source: B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Health S e r v i c e s and H o s p i t a l Insurance, D i v i s i o n of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i t a l  S t a t i s t i c s . . . , V o l s . L X X X I - X C ( V i c t o r i a : Queen's P r i n t e r , 1952-61). Data a r e not a v a i l a b l e for 1951. - 98 -T A B L E 10. - Age-Sex s p e c i f i c death r a t e s , B r i t i s h Columbia, 1951, 1956 and 1 9 6 i a (per 1, 000 population) A ge 1951 1956 1961 KJT OUp M a l e F e m a l e M a l e F e m a l e M a l e F e m a l e Under 1 36. 1 27.4 30. 1 26. 3 26. 8 21. 7 1-4 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 0. 8 5-9 0. 8 0. 6 0. 7 0. 5 0. 6 0.4 10-19 1.4 0.7 1.0 0. 5 0. 8 0.4 20-29 2.4 1. 0 2.4 0. 8 1. 9 0. 7 30-39 2. 6 1. 5 2. 3 1.2 2.4 1. 1 40-49 5. 3 3. 3 4. 7 3. 2 4. 3 2. 6 50-59 12. 7 7. 8 12.4 7.2 11.1 5. 8 60-69 29. 4 16. 6 29. 1 16. 0 27. 3 15.4 70-79 62. 7 46. 0 61. 6 42. 5 62.1, 37.9 Over 80 159. 7 136. 2 153. 8 137. 0 138. 6 118. 8 A v e r a g e 12. 3 7. 6 11.5 7. 6 10.7 6. 9 a S o u r c e : B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , 1957 and 1961. Rates f or the int e r v e n i n g y e a r s show c o n s i d e r a b l e year to y e a r v a r i a t i o n , but 1951, 1956 and 1961 were s e l e c t e d to show the m a i n trends. - 99 -T A B L E 11. -- D i s t r i b u t i o n of Population, 1951 and 1 9 6 l a Census Population % B. C. Population S u b d i v i s i o n 1951 1961 1951 1961 l a 4, 914 8, 544 0.4 0. 5 l b 16, 017 19, 474 1. 4 1.2 C r a n b r o o k 3, 621 5, 549 0. 3 0. 3 K i m b e r l e y 5, 933 6, 013 0. 5 0.4 Unorganised 6, 463 7,912 0. 6 0. 5 l c 6, 697 6, 226 0. 6 0.4 F e r n i e 2, 551 2,661 0.2 0. 2 Unorganised 4, 146 3, 565 0.4 0. 2 2a 4, 794 6, 275 0.4 0.4 R e v e l s t o k e 2, 917 3, 624 0. 3 0. 2 Unorganised 1, 877 2,651 0.2 0.2 2b 30, 526 37, 004 2. 6 2. 3 C a s t l e g a r I, 329 2, 253 0. 1 0. 1 R o s s l a n d 4, 604 4, 354 0.4 0.3 T r a i l 11, 430 11, 580 1.0 0. 7 Unorganised 13, 163 18, 817 1. 1 1.2 2c 24, 740 27, 428 2. 1 1. 7 N e l s o n 6, 772 7, 074 0. 6 0. 4 C r eston 1, 626 2, 460 0. 1 0. 2 Unorganised 16, 342 17, 894 1. 4 1. 1 3a 46, 445 58, 692 4.0 3.6 C o l d s t r earn 1, 402 2, 161 0. 1 0. 1 Spallumcheets 1, 936 2, 123 0. 2 0. 1 Summer land 3, 567 4, 307 0. 3 0. 3 A r m s t r o n g 1, 126 1, 288 0. 1 0. 1 Kelowna 8, 517 13, 188 0. 7 0.8 V e r n o n 7, 822 10, 250 0. 7 0. 6 Unorganised 22, 075 25, 375 1.9 1.6 3b 24, 163 27, 843 2. 1 1. 7 Pen t i c t o n 10, 584 13, 859 0. 9 0. 9 O l i v e r 1, 000 1, 774 0. 1 0. 1 Unorganised 12, 579 12, 210 1. 1 0. 7 3c 7, 078 8, 111 0. 6 0. 5 G r a n d F o r k s 1, 646 2, 347 0. 1 0. 1 Unorganised 5, 432 .5, 764 0. 5 0.4 4a 8, 470 10, 557 0. 7 0. 6 Hope 1, 668 2, 751 0. 1 0. 2 U n o r g a n i s e d 6, 802 8, 006 0. 6 0. 5 continued . T a b l e 11 continued. - 100 -4b 10, 620 11, 660 0.9 0. 7 4c 470, 822 621, 773 40. 4 38. 2 Burnaby 58, 376 100, 157 5.0 6. 2 No r t h Vancouver D i s t r i c t 14, 469 38, 971 1.2 2.4 Richmond 19, 186 43, 323 1.7 2.7 West Vancouver 13, 990 25, 454 1.2 1.6 No r t h Vancouver C i t y 15, 687 23, 656 1.4 1. 5 Vancouver 344, 833 384, 522 29.6 23. 6 Unorganised 4, 281 5, 680 0.4 0. 3 4d 91, 138 168, 392 7.8 10. 3 C o q u i t l a m 15, 697 29, 053 1. 4 1.8 D e l t a 6, 701 14, 597 0. 6 0. 9 S u r r e y 33, 670 77, 291 2.9 4.8 New Westminster 28, 639 33, 654 2. 5 2. 1 P o r t C o q u i t l a m 3, 232 8, 111 0. 3 0. 5 P o r t Moody 2, 246 4, 789 0. 2 0. 3 Unorganised 953 897 0. 1 0. 1 4c 68, 188 95, 149 5. 9 5.8 C h i l l i v^ack D i s t r i c t 13, 677 18, 296 1.2 1. 1 C h i l l i w a c k C i t y 5, 663 8, 259 0. 5 0. 5 Kent 1, 725 2, 194 0. 1 0. 1 L a n g l e y c 12, 267 16, 950 0. 2 1. 1 Maple Ridge 9, 891 16, 748 0.9 1. o Mats qui 10, 308 14, 293 0. 9 0. 9 M i s s i o n D i s t r i c t 4, 467 5, 324 0.4 0. 3 M i s s i o n C i t y 2, 668 3, 251 0. 2 0. 2 P i t t Meadows 1, 434 2, 187 0. 1 0. 1 Sumas 4, 015 5, 145 0. 3 0. 3 Unorganised 2, 073 2, 502 0. 2 0. 2 5a 121,712 162, 452 10. 4 10. 0 C e n t r a l Saanich 2, 069 2, 952 0. 2 0. 2 E s qui malt 10, 153 12, 048 0. 9 0. 7 Oak Bay 11, 960 16, 935 1.0 1. o Saanich 28, 481 48, 876 2. 4 3. 0 V i c t o r i a 51, 331 54, 941 4.4 3.4 Unorganised 17, 718 26, 700 1. 5 1.6 5b 19, 919 24, 779 1. 7 1. 5 No r t h Cowichan 6, 665 9, 166 0. 6 0. 6 Duncan 2, 784 3, 726 0. 2 0. 2 L a k e Cowichan 1, 628 2, 149 0. 1 0. 1 Unorg a n i s e d 8, 842 9, 738 0. 8 0. 6 T a b l e 11 continued. - 101 -5c 30, 546 40, 569 2. 6 2. 5 Nanaimo 7, 196 14, 135 0. 6 0. 9 L a d y s m i t h 2, 094 2, 173 0. 2 0. 3 Unor ganised 21, 256 24, 261 1.8 1. 5 5d 17, 819 26, 072 1. 5 1.6 P o r t A l b e r n i 7, 845 11, 560 0. 7 0. 7 A l b e r n i 3, 323 4, 616 0. 3 0. 3 Unorganised 6, 651 9, 896 0. 6 0. 6 5e 17, 204 27, 003 1. 5 1.7 Courtenay 2, 553 3, 485 0. 2 0. 2 C a m p b e l l R i v e r 1, 986 3, 737 0. 1 0. 1 Unorganised 12, 665 19, 781 1. 1 1.2 5f 7, 803 9, 960 0.7 0. 6 6a 3, 463 4, 823 0. 3 0. 3 6b 10, 299 13, 390 0.9 0. 8 Salmon A r m V i l l a g e 1, 201 1, 506 0. 1 0. 1 Salmon A r m D i s t r i c t 2, 389 4, 007 0. 2 0. 3 Unorganised 6, 709 7, 877 0. 6 0. 5 6c 19, 664 34, 063 1.7 2. 1 K a m l o o p s 8, 099 10, 076 0. 7 0. 6 M e r r i t t 1, 251 3, 039 0. 1 „. 0. 2 N o r t h K amloops 1, 979 6, 456 0. 2 0.4 Uno r g a n i s e d 8, 335 14, 492 0. 7 0. 9 6d 524 835 - -6e 3, 180 7, 036 0. 3 0. 4 6f 4, 693 6, 143 0.4 0.4 7a 5, 149 6, 229 0. 4 0.4 7b 2, 644 1, 728 0. 2 0. 1 7c 10, 454 13, 368 0. 9 0. 8 P o w e l l Rivera- 4, 857 10, 748 0.4 0. 7 Unorganised 5, 597 2, 620 0. 5 0. 2 8a 11, 420 27, 424 1. o 1. 7 P r i n c e George 4, 703 13, 877 0.4 0. 9 Unorganised 6, 717 13, 547 0. 6 0. 8 8b 3, 397 4, 287 0. 3 0. 3 8c 3, 174 5, 846 0. 3 0. 4 8d 7, 094 15, 546 0. 6 1.0 8e 6, 815 10, 121 0. 6 0.7 8f 6, 250 8, 446 0. 5 0. 5 8g 2, 126 2, 570 0. 2 0.2 9a 594 239 0. 1 0. 1 9b 755 1, 684 0. 1 0. 1 9c 2, 047 1, 492 0. 2 0. 1 continued . . . - 102 -Table 11 continued 9d 13, 362 21, 571 1. 1 1. 3 P r i n c e R u p e r t 8, 546 11, 987 0. 7 0. 7 Unorganised 4, 816 9, 584 0. 4 0. 6 9e 1, 707 10, 203 0. 1 0. 8 9f 2, 389 3, 014 0. 2 0. 2 10a 1, 173 2, 874 0. 1 0. 1 10b 221 174 - -10c 3, 868 9, 842 0. 3 0. 4 lOd 9, 133 18, 171 0. 8 0.9 Dawson C r e e k 3, 589 10, 946 0. 3 0.7 Unorganised 5, 544 7, 225 0. 5 0.4 B a s e d on Census of Canada - 1961 1961 f i g u r e for Sur r e y D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y includes the population of White Rock City, f o r m e r l y p a r t of S u r r e y . c 1961 f i g u r e for L a n g l e y D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y includes the population of L a n g l e y City, f o r m e r l y p a r t of L a n g l e y D i s t r i c t . ^ 1951 f i g u r e for P o w e l l R i v e r i s the sum of the populations of Westview and C r a n b e r r y Lake. Note that their a r e a s do not c o r r e s p o n d to the new D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y . - 103 -T A B L E 12. - E s t i m a t e s of the components of population change, census subdi v i s i o n s , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , and unorganized a r e a s 3 -(to the n e a r e s t ten) Census N a t u r a l Change Net M i g r a t i o n T o t a l Change Subdivisions Amount Rate Amount Rate Amount Rate l a 1, 620 33. 0 2, 010 4.0. 1 3, 630 73,9 l b 3,410 21.3 50 0. 3 3,460 21.6 C r a n b r o o k 1, 440 39.7 490 13. 5 1, 930 53. 2 K i m b e r l e y 1, 190 20. 1 -1, 110 -18. 8 80 1.3 U n o r g a n i s e d 770 12. 0 680 10. 5 1, 450 22. 5 l c 950 14. 2 -1, 420 -21. 2 -470 -7. 0 F e r n i e 410 16. 2 -300 -11. 9 110 4.3 U n o r g a n i s e d 540 12. 9 -1,120 -26. 9 -580 -14. 0 2a 1, 130 23. 6 350 7. 3 1,480 30. 9 Re v e l s t o k e 860 29. 3 -150 -5. 1 710 24. 2 Un o r g a n i s e d 280 14. 8 500 26. 5 770 41. 3 2b 6, 530 21.4 -60 -0. 2 6, 480 21.2 C a s t l e g a r 450 33. 6 480 36. 0 920 69. 5 R o s s l a n d 800 17.4 -1,050 -22. 8 -250 -5.4 T r a i l 2, 690 23. 5 -2, 540 -22. 2 150 1.3 U n o r g a n i s e d 2, 600 19.7 3, 060 23. 2 5, 650 43. 0 2e 3,490 14. 1 -810 -3. 3 2, 690 10. 9 N e l s o n 1, 130 16. 7 -830 -12. 3 300 4. 5 C r e s t o n 260 16. 1 570 35. 2 830 51. 3 U n o r g a n i s e d 2, 100 12. 8 -550 -3. 3 1, 550 -9. 5 3a 6, 750 14. 5 5, 500 11. 8 12,250 26.4 C o l d s t r e a m 150 10. 6 610 43. 5 760 54. 1 S p a l l u m c h e e i 210 11. 1 -30' -1.4 190 9.7 Summer land 450 12. 5 290 8. 2 740 20. 7 A r m s t r o n g 100 9. 1 660 5. 3 160 14.4 Kelowna 1, 000 11.7 3, 620 42. 5 4, 620 54. 2 V e r n o n 1, 200 15. 2 1, 240 15. 8 2,430 31.0 U n o r g a n i s e d 3, 650 16. 5 -290 -1. 3 3, 350 15. 2 3b 4, 050 16. 8 -370 -1. 5 3, 680 15. 2 Pe n t i c t o n 1,470 10. 6 1, 770 16. 7 3, 240 30. 6 O l i v e r 460 46.4 310 31. 0 770 77.4 Un o r g a n i s e d 2, 120 16. 8 -2,450 -19. 5 -330 -2. 6 continued . . . - 104 -Table 12 continued 3c 1, 050 14. 8 -20 -0. 2 1, 030 14. 6 G r a n d F o r k s 320 19. 6 380 23. 0 700 42. 6 U n o r g a n i s e d 1, 760 13. 4 -390 -7.2 330 6. 1 4a 1, 760 20. 8 330 3.9 2, 090 24. 6 Hope 560 33. 5 520 31. 5 1, 080 64. 9 U n o r g a n i s e d 1, 200 29.2 - -190 -4.6 1, 110 24. 5 4b 1, 610 15. 2 -570 -5.4 1. 040 9.8 4c 69, 940 14. 9 81, 010 17. 2 150, 950 32. 1 Burnaby 15, 180 25. 8 26, 600 45. 6 41,780 71. 6 N o r t h Vancouver D i s t r i c t 5, 330 36. 8 19,170 132, 5 24, 500 169. 3 R i c h m o n d 6, 850 35. 7 17,280 90, 1 24,140 125. 8 West Vancouver D i s t r i c t 1,910 13. 7 9, 550 68. 3 11,460 81. 9 N o r t h Vancouver C i t y 4, 670 28. 5 3, 500 22.3 7, 970 50. 8 Vancouver C i t y 35, 410 10. 3 4, 280 1.2 39,690 11. 5 U n o r g a n i s e d 790 18.4 620 14. 5 1, 410 32. 9 4d 20, 550 22. 5 56, 710 62. 2 77, 250 84. 8 C o q u i t l a m 4, 300 27. 4 9, 050 57. 7 13,360 85. 1 D e l t a 1, 590 23. 8 6, 300 94. 1 7,990 117. 8 Surrey^ 3 9, 500 28. 2 34, 120 101. 3 43,620 129. 6 New Westminste r 3,120 10. 9 1, 900 6. 6 5, 020 17. 5 P o r t C o q u i t l a m 1, 190 36. 9 3, 690 114. 0 4, 880 151. 0 P o r t Moody 680 30. 1 1, 860 82. 9 2, 540 113. 2 U n o r g a n i s e d 170 17. 4 -220 -22. 7 -60 -5. 9 4e 13,640 20. 0 13,320 19. 5 26, 960 39. 5 C h i l l i w^ack D i s t -r i c t 3, 170 23. 2 1,450 10. 6 4, 620 33. 8 C h i l l i w a c k C i t y 1, 130 19.9 1,470 26. C 2, 600 45. 8 Kent 340 19. 5 130 7. 7 470 27. 2 L a n g l e y 0 2, 760 22. 5 1, 920 15. 7 4, 680 38. 2 M a p l e Ridge 1,900 19. 2 4, 960 50. 1 6, 860 69. 3 M a t s qui 1, 990 19. 3 1, 990 19.3 3, 990 38. 7 M i s s i o n D i s t r i c t 600 13. 4 260 5.6 860 19. 2 M i s s i o n C i t y 650 24. 5 -70 -2. 6 580 21. 9 P i t t Meadows 410 28. 3 350 24. 2 750 52. 5 Sumas 760 19. 0 370 9. 1 1, 130 28. 1 U n o r g a n i s e d -70 -3.4 500 24. 1 430 20. 7 continued . . . - 105 -Table 12 continued 5a C e n t r a l Saanich E s q u i m a l t Oak B a y Saanich V i c t o r i a U n o r g a n i s e d 14, 920 240 1, 940 90 5, 320 3, 830 3, 500 12. 3 11.7 19. 1 0. 8 18. 7 7. 5 19. 7 25, 820 170 260 4, 880 15, 080 -220 5, 650 21. 2 8. 0 2. 6 40. 8 52. 9 -0.4 31. 9 40, 740 410 2, 200 4, 980 20,400 3, 610 9, 150 33. 5 19.7 21.7 41. 6 71. 6 7. 0 51. 6 5b No r t h Cowichan Duncan L a k e Cowichan U n o r g a n i s e d 3, 850 800 880 960 1,210 19.3 11.9 31.6 59.2 13. 7 1, 010 1, 710 60 -440 -310 5. 1 25. 6 2. 3 -27. 1 -3. 5 4, 860 2, 500 940 520 900 24.4 37. 5 33.8 32. 0 10. 1 5c Nanaimo L a d y s m i t h U n o r g a n i s e d 5, 250 2, 160 350 2, 740 17. 2 30. 1 16. 8 12.9 4, 770 4, 780 -270 270 15. 6 66.4 -13. 0 1. 3 10, 020 6, 940 80 3, 000 32. 8 96. 5 3. 8 14. 1 5d P o r t A l b e r n i Albernijg U n o r g a n i s e d 5, 340 2, 320 1,410 1, 620 30. 0 29. 6 42. 3 24.4 2, 910 1,400 -110 1, 630 16. 3 17. 8 -3.4 24. 4 8, 250 3, 720 1,290 3, 250 46. 3 47.4 38. 7 48.9 5e Courtenay C a m p b e l l R i v e r U n o r g a n i s e d 5, 100 780 1, 060 3, 260 29.6 30. 5 53. 3 25. 8 4, 700 150 690 3, 860 27. 3 6. 0 34. 8 30. 5 9, 800 930 1, 750 7, 120 57. 0 36. 5 88.2 56. 2 5f 1,890 24. 2 270 3. 4 2, 160 27. 6 6a 950 27. 5 410 11. 8 1, 360 39.3 6b Salmon A r m V i l l a g e Salmon A r m D i s t r i c t U n o r g a n i s e d 1, 800 290 470 1, 040 17.4 23.7 19. 5 15. 6 1, 300 20 1, 150 120 12. 6 1. 7 48. 2 1. 8 3, 090 310 1, 620 1, 170 30. 0 25.4 67. 7 17.4 6c K a m l o o p s M e r r i t t N o r t h K amloops U n o r g a n i s e d 5, 960 1, 620 560 1, 120 2, 260 30. 3 20. 0 44. 8 56. 3 31. 9 8, 440 360 1, 230 3, 360 3, 500 42. 9 4.4 98. 1 169. 9 42. 0 14, 400 1, 980 73. 2 24. 4 1,790 142.9 4,480 226.2 6, 160 73.9 continued . . - 106 -Table 12 continued 6d 190 36. 8 120 22. 5 310 59.4 6e 1,490 46. 9 2, 370 74. 4 3, 860 121. 3 6f 1,490 31.7 -40 -0.9 1, 450 30. 5 7a 1, 690 32. 7 -610 -11.7 1, 080 21.0 7b 410 15. 6 -1,330 -50. 2 -920 -34. 6 7c P o w e l l R i v e r ^ U n o r g a n i s e d 2, 540 1, 720 820 24.3 35.4 14. 6 380 4, 170 -3,800 3. 6 85. 9 -67. 9 2, 910 5, 890 -2,980 27. 9 121.3 -53. 3 8a P r i n c e George U n o r g a n i s e d 6, 680 4, 190 2,480 58. 5 89.1 37. 0 9, 330 4, 980 4, 350 81. 7 105. 9 64. 8 16, 000 9, 174 6, 830 140. 1 195. 0 101. 8 8b 940 27. 6 -50 -1.4 890 26. 2 8c 790 24.9 1, 880 59.3 2, 670 84.2 8d 3, 980 56. 1 4, 480 63. 1 8, 450 119. 1 8e 2, 550 37.4 760 11. 2 3, 310 48. 5 8f 2,430 38. 9 -240 -3. 8 2, 200 35. 1 8g 680 31. 9 -240 -11. 1 444 20.9 9a 50 8.4 -410 -68. 2 -360 -59. 8 9b 380 50. 7 550 72. 3 930 123. 0 9c 490 23. 9 -1,050 -51. 1 -560 -27. 1 9d P r i n c e R u p e r t U n o r g a n i s e d 4, 450 2, 440 2, 010 33. 3 28. 5 41. 8 3, 760 1, 000 2, 760 28. 1 11. 7 57.4 8, 210 3, 440 4, 770 61.4 40. 3 99.2 9e 2, 770 162. 0 5, 730 335. 7 8, 500 497. 7 •9f 700 29.2 -70 -3. 0 630 26. 2 10a 730 62.2 970 82. 8 1, 700 145. 0 10b 60 26. 2 -110 -47. 5 -50 -21.3 10c 2, 130 55. 1 3, 840 99.4 5, 970 154. 4 lOd Dawson C r e e k U n o r g a n i s e d 4, 300 2, 850 1,450 47. 0 79.3 26. 2 4, 740 4, 510 230 51. 9 125. 7 4. 1 9, 040 7, 360 1, 680 99.0 205. 0 30. 3 a U s i n g data f r o m Census of Canada; 1961, and B r i t i s h Columbia, V i t a l Sta t i stic s (annual). b 1 9 5 1 - 1 9 6 l data f o r S u r r e y D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y includes White R o c k C i t y after its i n c o r p o r a t i o n as a separate c i t y . continued . - 107 -Table 12 continued c1951 -1961 data for L a n g l e y D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y includes L a n g l e y C i t y after i t s i n c o r p o r a t i o n as a separate c i t y . ^ E s t i m a t e s for the y e a r s p r e c e d i n g the c r e a t i o n of P o w e l l R i v e r D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y made by combining data for Westview and C r a n b e r r y Lake, it s p a r t i a l p r e d e c e s s o r s . The author i s g r a t e f u l to the B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a D i v i s i o n of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s for p r o v i d i n g data on n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e for c e r t a i n d i s t r i c t ^ m u n i c i p a l i t i e s not i n c l u d e d i n the published l i s t s i n the e a r l y y e a r s of the decade. - 108 -T A B L E 13. -- D i s t r i b u t i o n of Population Change, 1951-61. Census Jr'ercentage o± p r o v i n c i a l component S u b d i v i s i o n N a t u r a l I n c r e a s e Net M i g r a t i o n T o t a l Change l a 0. 7 0. 5 0. 8 l b 1. 5 0. 1 0. 8 l c 0.4 -0.4 - 0. 1 2a 0. 5 0. 1 0. 3 2b 2. 9 - 1.4 2c 1.6 2. 0 0. 6 3a 3.0 1.4 2. 7 3b 1.8 -0. 1 0.8 3c 0. 5 - 0.2 4a 0. 7 0. 1 0. 5 4b 0.7 -0. 1 0. 2 4c 31. 3 20. 0 32. 6 4d 9.2 14. 0 16. 7 4e 6. 1 3. 3 5.8 5a 6.7 . 6.4 8. 8 5b 1. 7 0. 3 1. 1 5c 2.4 1.2 2. 2 5d 2.4 0. 7 1.8 5e 2. 3 1.2 2. 1 5f 0. 8 0. 1 0. 5 6a 0.4 0. 1 0. 3 6b 0. 8 0. 3 0.7 6c 2. 7 2. 1 3. 1 6d 0. 1 - 0. 1 6e 0. 7 0. 6 0. 8 6f 0. 7 - 0. 3 7a 0. 8 -0. 2 0. 2 7b 0. 2 -0. 3 -0. 2 7c 1. 1 0. 1 0. 6 8a 3. 0 2.3 3. 5 8b 0. 4 - 0.2 8c 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 8d 1.8 1. 1 1.8 8e 1. 1 0. 2 0. 7 8f 1. 1 -0. 1 0. 5 8g 0. 3 -0. 1 0. 1 continued . . . - 109 -Table 13 continued. 9a - -0. 1 -0. 1 9b 0. 2 0. 1 0. 2 9c 0. 2 -0. 3 -0. 1 9d 2. 0 0.9 1.8 9e 1. 2 1.4 1.8 9f 0. 3 - 0. 1 10a 0. 3 0. 2 0.4 10b - - -10c 1. 0 1.0 1. 3 lOd 1. 9 1.2 2.0 Negative sign i n d i c a t e s l o s s of population, as a percentage of total f or the component i n the pr o v i n c e . D a s h indicates value of l e s s than 0. 1 A P P E N D I X B I N D E X T O C E N S U S SUBDIVISIONS AND M U N I C I P A L I T I E S The s y s t e m of a r e a l units used i n this study i s that introduced by the D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s just before the 1956 Census. The 1951 population totals were retabulated for the new areas. Other types of data i n the 1951 Census, and the v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s for the y e a r s up to and incl u d i n g 1956 r e f e r to the old ar e a s . The d i f f e r e n c e s between the two systems are d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter One. Throughout this thesis, the r e v i s e d s y s t e m of census subdivisions i s used. F i g u r e 28 p r o v i d e s a key. Census S u b d i v i s i o n O f f i c i a l Name 1 A Upper C o l u m b i a R i v e r B Upper Kootenay R i v e r C E l k and F l a t h e a d R i v e r s 2 A C o l u m b i a R i v e r N o r t h B Columbia R i v e r South C . . . . . . . . . . Kootenay and Slocan L a k e s 3 A Okanagan and Upper Shu swap B . S i m i l k a m e e n R i v e r C K e t t l e R i v e r 4 A H a r r i s o n L a k e B . . . . . . . . . . Howe Sound C Vancouver D New Westminster E C h i l l i w a c k 5 A V i c t o r i a B Duncan C Nanaimo - 110 -KEY TO CENSUS SUBDIVISIONS 1956 a 1961 8 10^  F i g . 28 - I l l -Census Subdivision Official Name D Port Alberni E Cour,.tenay F Vancouver Island North 6 A North Thompson B Shuswap C Nicola D South Chilcotin E Lillooet East F Bridge-Lillooet 7 A Bella Coola-Coast B Knight Inlet-Coast C Powell River-Coast 8 A Nechake-Fraser-Par snip B Fraser-Canoe C North Chilcotin D Cariboo E Skeena-Bulkley F Upper Nechako G Babine-Stuart-Takla Lakes 9 A Atlin Lake B Stikine-Liard C Portland Canal-Nass D Skeena-Coast E Coast (Browning Entrance to Laredo S oundX F Queen Charlotte Islands 10 A Liard B Finley-Par snip C Beaton River D Kiskatinaw River Figure 29 shows the location of the municipalities which have been mentioned in the text of this thesis. The criterion for inclusion was the practical question of whether or not it is possible to prepare estimates of the natural and migrational components of population change, (see Chapter F i g . 29 - 112 -One). The boundaries of some of these places were changed d u r i n g the decade (see Chapter One). The annexations l i s t e d below were f r o m unorganised t e r r i t o r y , unless otherwise stated. M u n i c i p a l i t y Date of Annexation C a m p b e l l R i v e r 1951, 2 C a s t l e g a r 1958 C r a n b r o o k . . . . . . . . 1954 C r e s t o n 1956, 8 Dawson C r e e k 1954, 5, 9 Duncan 1957, f r o m Indian R e s e r v e F e r n i e 1958 Kelowna I960, part f r o m G l e n m o r e K i m b e r l e y 1958 L a k e Cowichan 1957, 9 Nanaimo 1952 O l i v e r 1957, 9 P r i n c e George 1953, 8 S almon A r m D i s t r i c t 1959, f r o m Indian R e s e r v e Salmon A r m V i l l a g e 1959, f r o m Indian R e s e r v e V e r n o n 1957 C r a n b e r r y L a k e and Westview were d i s s o l v e d i n 1955; with some unorganized t e r r i t o r y they f o r m e d the new m u n i c i p a l i t y of P o w e l l R i v e r . P o w e l l R i v e r annexed some more unorganized t e r r i t o r y i n 1959. L a n g l e y C i t y was c a r v e d out of L a n g l e y D i s t r i c t i n 1955, but data for these areas have been combined here. White Rock was c a r v e d out of S u r r e y i n 1957, but data for these a r e a s have been combined here. Source: Canada, D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , Census D i v i s i o n , Tenth D e c e n n i a l Census: 1961, V o l . I (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r ) . - 113 -K e y to M u n i c i p a l i t i e s shown i n F i g u r e 29 1 C r a n b r o o k 2 K i m b e r l e y 3 F e r n i e 4 Revelstoke 5 R o s s l a n d 6 T r a i l 7 C a s t l e g a r 8 N e l s o n 9 C r e s t o n 10 C o l d s t r e a m 11 Spallumcheen 12 Summerland 13 A r m s t r o n g 14 Kelowna 15 V e r n o n 16 P e n t i c t o n 17 O l i v e r 18 G r a n d F o r k s 19 Hope 20 B urnaby 21 N o r t h Vancouver D i s t r i c t 22 R i c hmond 23 West Vancouver D i s t r i c t 24 N o r t h Vancouver C i t y 25 Vancouver 26 C o q u i t l a m 27 D e l t a 28 S u r r e y 29 New Westminster 30 P o r t C o q u i t l a m 31 P o r t Moody 32 C h i l l i w a c k D i s t r i c t 33 K e n t 34 L a n g l e y 35 Maple Ridge 36 Mats qui 37 M i s s i o n D i s t r i c t 38 P i t t Meadows 39 Sumas. 40 C h i l l i w a c k C i t y 41 M i s s i o n C i t y 42 C e n t r a l Saanich 43 E s q u i m a l t 44 Oak Bay - 114 -45 Saanich 46 V i c t o r i a 47 N o r t h Cowichan 48 Duncan 49 L a k e Cowichan 50 Nanaimo 51 L a d y s m i t h 52 P o r t A l b e r n i 53 A l b e r n i 54 Courtenay 55 C a m p b e l l R i v e r 56 Salmon A r m V i l l a g e 57 Salmon A r m D i s t r i c t 58 K a m l o o p s 59 M e r r i t t 60 N o r t h K amloops 61 P o w e l l R i v e r 62 P r i n c e George 63 P r i n c e R u p e r t 64 Dawson C r e e k A P P E N D I X C I N T E R C E N S A L E S T I M A T E S O F T H E P O P U L A T I O N O F B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A E s t i m a t e s of the population of Canada and each of the p r o v i n c e s a r e published annually (June 1st) by the D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s . S ince 1956 the p r o v i n c i a l estimates have been supplemented by q u a r t e r l y f i g u r e s . A f t e r each census, the estimates f o r the pr e c e d i n g i n t e r c e n s a l p e r i o d are r e v i s e d . The l a t e s t a v a i l a b l e revisions''' have been used i n this study. A deta i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n of the method of making the annual and q u a r t e r l y population estimates, with some comments on the subsequent r e v i s i o n s i s contained i n a D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s O f f i c e Memorandum. A b r i e f s u m m a r y of the method i s provided here for r e f e r e n c e purposes. The estimates are based on a p r e c e d i n g census enumeration of the population of the province, to which the numbers of r e g i s t e r e d b i r t h s and an estimate of i n - m i g r a t i o n a r e added, and the number of r e g i s t e r e d 2 1. Canada, D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , Census A n a l y s i s Section, P o p u l a t i o n of Canada by P r o v i n c e s : E s t i m a t e s for I n t e r c e n s a l Y e a r s (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , 1962). 2. Mr. A. H. LeNeveu, of the D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s i n Ottawa, k i n d l y supplied this memorandum. Mr. LeNeveu, and M i s s M, E. F l e m i n g answered s e v e r a l questions about the population estimates. The author of the present study g r a t e f u l l y acknowledges their as sistance. - 115 -- 116 -deaths and an estimate of o u t - m i g r a t i o n a r e subtracted. The numbers of b i r t h s and deaths are obtained f r o m p r o v i n c i a l v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s r e c o r d s . The Department of I m m i g r a t i o n provides monthly totals of the numbers of i m m i g r a n t s by p r o v i n c e of destination. The United States I m m i g r a t i o n and N a t u r a l i z a t i o n S e r v i c e and the United K i n g d o m B o a r d of T r a d e provide some i n f o r m a t i o n on e m i g r a t i o n f r o m Canada; these data a r e not ready i n time for the p r e l i m i n a r y estimates of the population of each p r o v i n c e but a r e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n the subsequent r e v i s i o n s . E m i g r a t i o n to countries other than the United States and B r i t a i n i s not s p e c i f i c a l l y allowed for, but i s included i n an a r b i t r a r y s u b t r a c t i o n f o r emigration, r e m o v e d f r o m the population estimate. The p r o p o r t i o n of e m i g r a t i o n w h i c h comes f r o m each p r o v i n c e i s estimated i n a rather complex manner. Net i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n i s estimated f r o m the F a m i l y Allowance r e c o r d s of the movement of f a m i l i e s r e c e i v i n g payment. Although some doubtful assumptions are made in the c o u r s e of estimating m i g r a t i o n to and f r o m each province, there i s no other way of making the i n t e r c e n s a l estimates of the population of each p r o v i n c e . The amount and rate of each component of population change v a r i e s c o n s i d e r a b l y f r o m year to year; these fluctuations cannot be completely c o v e r e d by the n e c e s s a r i l y r i g i d and standardized method of c o m p i l i n g the population estimates, on a nation-wide b a s i s . C o m p a r i s o n - 117 -of the June 1st estimates i n 1951, 1956 and 1961 with the census enumerations for those dates shows that, despite the methodological p r o b l e m s of p r e p a r i n g the estimates, they a r e i n fact r e m a r k a b l y good. The subsequent r e v i s i o n s , after the census data a r e available, a r e probably as accu r a t e as anything other than a complete enumeration can be. The 1952-5 estimates of the population of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a were r e v i s e d upwards after the 1956 census and the 1957-60 estimates were reduced after 1961. These changes were n e c e s s a r y because m i g r a t i o n into the pr o v i n c e i n the f i r s t p a rt of the decade was far heavier than had been anticipated, while i n the second half of the p e r i o d the o v e r a l l net m i g r a t i o n d i d not come up to expectations. The p o s s i b i l i t y ithat the I960 estimate was too high could alone account for the fact that the 1960-1 growth was s m a l l e r than the pr e v i o u s annual i n c r e m e n t s . Subsequent i n f o r m a t i o n shows,! however, that the pace of population growth did s l o w d o w n at that time ( s e e Chapter Two). T h i s adds to the degree of confidence one can place i n the i n t e r c e n s a l estimates of population generally. One can assume, therefore, that the D. B. S. i n t e r c e n s a l estimates of population for the provinces, at l e a s t the r e v i s e d v e r s i o n s , a r e r e l i a b l e and provide a valuable source of i n f o r m a t i o n for the de t a i l e d examination ol population trends. It i s p a r t i c u l a r l y important to use annual figures, e s p e c i a l l y for a l a r g e a r e a l i k e B r i t i s h Columbia, i n which population growth is r a p i d and r e f l e c t s the i n t e r a c t i o n of many separate v a r i a b l e s . It was fortunate for this study that a p a r t i a l census was taken i n 1956, the f i r s t i n mid-decade for B r i t i s h Columbia. But even the Censuses cannot p o r t r a y - 118 -the true c h a r a c t e r of population growth; for a f u l l demographic a n a l y s i s , o annual data should be used wherever p o s s i b l e . ( T h i s a x i m does not apply to the present study, of which the object i s not demographic analysis, but an examination of the growth over the whole decade.) A P P E N D I X D T H E S T A B L E P O P U L A T I O N D e m o g r a p h e r s often use, as a t h e o r e t i c a l model, the concept of the "stable population" developed by A. J. L o t k a . * If a population has a fixed age and sex d i s t r i b u t i o n , if constant m o r t a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y r ates a r e maintained i n each group, and i f there is no m i g r a t i o n , then the population i s said to be 'stable'. A c o r o l l a r y of these postulates i s that the crude b i r t h and death r a t e s a r e constant and a l s o that the population grows (or declines, as the case may be) i n g e o m e t r i c p r o g r e s s i o n . A s p e c i a l case of the stable population i s the 'stationary' condition, i n which b i r t h s and deaths balance exactly, and there i s no o v e r a l l growth or d e c l i n e of population. B ecause m i g r a t i o n i s s e l e c t i v e and because f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y a r e v a r i a b l e , the e q u i l i b r i u m conditions a r e s e l d o m achieved. But many populations approach stability, and the model pro v i d e s a useful b a s i s for a n a l y s i s . In B r i t i s h Columbia, however, the d i s t u r b i n g elements were p a r t i c u l a r l y strong i n the 1951-61 period, and the model has l i m i t e d value for d emographic a n a l y s i s . But the a r e a l pattern of population change can be compared with the d i s t r i b u t i o n that i s i m p l i e d i n the model, that 1. P. R. Cox, Demography (3rd ed. rev.; Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1959), p. 336. - 119 -- 120 -growth i s everywhere i n the same p r o p o r t i o n to the i n i t i a l population. T h i s p r o v i d e s a u s e f u l approach to the a n a l y s i s of the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of population (see Chapter F o u r ) . - 121 -A P P E N D I X E U R B A N AND R U R A L P O P U L A T I O N S F o r each census, 1951, 1956 and 1961, the D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s introduced r e v i s e d definitions of the concepts of "urban", " r u r a l " , " f a r m " and "non-farm" for the d e s c r i p t i o n of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population. These r e v i s i o n s were made i n an attempt to show more c l e a r l y the pattern of population d i s t r i b u t i o n i n Canada. Unfortunately, these changes make c o m p a r i s o n through time a dangerous venture. On each occasion, however, the r e s u l t s of the p r e c e d i n g census were retabulated a c c o r d i n g to the new defi n i t i o n . Thus the 1956 d e f i n i t i o n i s common to the data of a l l three censuses, and can be used as a consistent b a s i s for c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . Unfortunately, it i s based p r i m a r i l y on the l e g a l status of land..''" Urban: - - A l l c i t i e s , towns, v i l l a g e s of 1, 000 population and over, i n c o r p o r a t e d or unincorporated, were c l a s s e d as "urban" under the 1956 defi n i t i o n . The whole of the population of each of the d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s on the f r i n g e of the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a was included, r e g a r d l e s s of the degree of urbanization. It i s not c l e a r f r o m the 1. A f u l l account of the definitions, the changes, and the apparent effects of changes of d e f i n i t i o n on the apparent s t r u c t u r e and d i s t r i b u t i o n of the population can be found i n Canada, D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s , Census D i v i s i o n , Tenth D e c e n n i a l Census:  1961, V o l . VII (Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r ) . - 122 -account of the d e f i n i t i o n i n the census r e p o r t s whether or not the whole or any p a r t of the population of the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n other parts of the p r o v i n c e was counted as urban. The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of population as urban or r u r a l t h e r e f o r e depended on the l e g a l status of the a r e a l unit concerned. V a r i a t i o n s within the i n c o r p o r a t e d a r e a were d i s r e g a r d e d , and the u r b a n places with a population below 1, 000 were also excluded. R u r a l : - - I n a l l three censuses, " r u r a l " was m e r e l y non-urban. The anomalies between urban c h a r a c t e r and p o l i t i c a l boundaries t h e r e f o r e d i s t o r t e d the s i z e of both s e c t o r s of the population, " R u r a l " was a blanket t e r m which included not only a g r i c u l t u r a l settlements of v a r i o u s f o r m s and functions, but also places which, though s m a l l i n size, n e v e r t h e l e s s had urban functions. The inhabitants of logging and mining camps were also counted as p a r t of the r u r a l population. F a r m and Non - far m: - - A l l p e r sons l i v i n g i n dwellings situated on f a r m s i n r u r a l l o c a l i t i e s , r e g a r d l e s s of their occupations, were counted as belonging to the r u r a l f a r m population. T h i s c l a s s excluded those f a r m op e r a t o r s and their f a m i l i e s who were not l i v i n g on f a r m s and those who l i v e d i n s o - c a l l e d urban a r e a s . P e r s o n s with non-a g r i c u l t u r a l occupations who happened to be l i v i n g on farms i n r u r a l a r e a s were included, but not the other members of the "secondary r u r a l " 1 and "adventitious" s e c t o r s of the r u r a l population, who should r e a l l y 2, S. W. E . Vince, " R e f l e c t i o n s on the S t r u c t u r e and D i s t r i b u t i o n of R u r a l Population i n England and Wales, 1921-1931,"'Transactions  and P a p e r s , Institute of B r i t i s h Geographers, XVIII (1952), pp. 53-76. - 123 -have been counted i n the n on-farm population. The r u r a l n o n - f a r m population i s a r e s i d u a l c l a s s and i s subject to the cumulative effect of a l l the e r r o r s a r i s i n g f r o m the u n r e a l i t y of the other de f i n i t i o n s . F a r m : - -In the 1956 Census, a f a r m was "a holding of (1) 3 a c r e s or m o re i n size, or (2) f r o m 1-3 a c r e s , with a g r i c u l t u r a l p roduction i n 1955 valued at $250 or more. " T h i s definition, f o r m u l a t e d as a c o m p r o m i s e for a l l parts of Canada, was inadequate for conditions i n B. C., p a r t i c u l a r l y as i t was applied to the s o c i a l geography of r u r a l a r e a s . - 124 -S E L E C T B I B L I O G R A P H Y A l a r g e number of works on B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a and i n the ge n e r a l f i e l d of population studies were consulted and found to be hel p f u l and stimulating. To include a l l these r e f e r e n c e s would make this b i b l i o g r a p h y unduly long. It has been r e s t r i c t e d , therefore, to those items which shaped the approach, method and content of this study, i n it s f i n a l f o r m . A b b r eviations A A A G Anna l s of the A s s o c i a t i o n of A m e r i c a n Geographers. C G Canadian Geographer C J E P S Canadian J o u r n a l of E c o n o m i c and P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e J A S A J o u r n a l of the A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n S F S P D S c r i p p s Foundation Studies i n Population D i s t r i b u t i o n T B C N R C T r a n s a c t i o n s of the B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s Conference - 125 -B i b l i o g r a p h i e s B r i t i s h Columbia. E t h n i c Groups i n B. C. . V i c t o r i a : The B. C. Centennial Committee, 1957. Canada. Department of Mines and T e c h n i c a l Surveys, Geog-r a p h i c a l B r a n c h . B i b l i o g r a p h y of P e r i o d i c a l L i t e r - ature on Canadian Geography: 1930 to 1955, P a r t I: G e n e r a l . P a r t V: B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a and Western  Canada: G e n e r a l . ( " B i b l i o g r a p h i c a l S e r i e s , " No. 22. ) Ottawa: Queen's P r i n t e r , 1959. . 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