UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

An investigation into the supply of and demand for teachers in British Columbia Brown, James Everett 1940

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AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE SUPPLY OP AND DEMAND FOR TEACHERS I N B R I T I S H COLUMBIA  By James E v e r e t t B r o w n  A Thesis submitted i n P a r t i a l Fulfilment of The R e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e D e g r e e o f M A S T E R  OF  A R T S  i n t h e Department of EDUCATION  THE UNIVERSITY OF B R I T I S H COLUMBIA APRIL, 1940  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I w i s h t o acknowledge i n p a r t i c u l a r  t h e generous  a s s i s t a n c e o f M r . G. B. Wood, A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , who w i t h u n f a i l i n g d i r e c t e d my w a n d e r i n g s t e p s i n time secured the d i s t r i b u t i o n  kindness  a n d who a l s o a t c o n s i d e r a b l e  cost  and s u p p l i e d t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p e r t a i n i n g t o o f t h e m a j o r s u b j e c t s among t h e g r a d u a t e s o f  the Teacher T r a i n i n g Course a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. I am a l s o i n d e b t e d of Education Mr.  t o v a r i o u s members o f t h e D e p a r t m e n t  a t V i c t o r i a f o r much a s s i s t a n c e i n s e c u r i n g  J . L . W a t s o n , R e g i s t r a r , most g e n e r o u s l y  to h i s records. Miss  g a v e me  access  J . L . MoLenaghen a n d C o l o n e l F . T. F a i r e y  s u p p l i e d information r e l a t i n g t o t h e i r departments. A. E . M i l l e r o f R e v e l s t o k e his  of the Education  I am f u r t h e r i n d e b t e d gistrar and  of B i r t h s ,  Inspecta?  k i n d l y p e r m i t t e d me t h e u s e o f  own p e r s o n a l l i b r a r y a n d a r r a n g e d  the o f f i c e s  data.  f o r my e n t r a n c e  into  Department a t V i c t o r i a .  t o M r . H. B. F r e n c h ,  Deaths and M a r r i a g e s  D e p u t y Re-  f o r B r i t i s h Columbia  t o M r . Norman B a k e r , S u p e r a n n u a t i o n C o m m i s s i o n e r . To  these  a n d many o t h e r s  I wish t o express  thanks f o r t h e k i n d and courteous my r e q u e s t s  my s i n c e r e  way i n w h i c h t h e y  answered  f o r i n f o r m a t i o n a n d w h i l e t h e y a r e i n no way r e -  s p o n s i b l e f o r a n y e r r o r s o r d e f e c t s t h e r e may b e i n t h e e n s u i n g pages n e v e r t h e l e s s  without  their invaluable a i d this  s t u d y would have been w e l l - n i g h i m p o s s i b l e  of achievement.  <?»E .Be  CONTENTS • CHAPTER  Page  I . INTRODUCTION  1  A. P u r p o s e o f t h e I n v e s t i g a t i o n B. I m p o r t a n c e o f a B a l a n c e  Between Supply  a n d Demand  C. N a t u r e o f t h e I n v e s t i g a t i o n II.  SUMMARY OP SIMILAR INVESTIGATIONS I N OTHER COUNTRIES 9i2 A. I n t h e U n i t e d  States  B. I n Canada C. I n v e s t i g a t i o n s E l s e w h e r e I I I . FACTORS AFFECTING THE DEMAND FOR TEACHERS-A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS A. T o t a l S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n as i t i s a f f e c t e d by V a r i o u s  Factors  B. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n as a f f e c t e d by V a r i o u s  Factors  C. The Number o f S e p a r a t i o n s D. E c o n o m i c C o n d i t i o n s I V . A S T A T I S T I C A L STUDY OF SOME FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND A« S c h o o l  83 Population  B« Number o f S e p a r a t i o n s C. A p p a r e n t Demand f o r New T e a c h e r s - - E x p a n s i o n or Contraction Plus  Separations  V. FACTORS AFFECTING THE SUPPLY OP TEACHERS A* R e l a t i v e A t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f t h e T e a c h i n g P r o f e s s i o n B. R e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e T e a c h i n g P r o f e s s i o n  83  CHAPTER -VI. A S T A T I S T I C A L EXAMINATION OP THE SUPPLY OF TEACHERS A. The Number o f T e a c h i n g C e r t i f i c a t e s  Issued  B. D i s t r i b u t i o n  o f New T e a c h e r s b y Sex a n d C e r t i f i c a t  C. D i s t r i b u t i o n  o f Academic C e r t i f i c a t e s b y M a j o r  Subjects. D. D i s t r i b u t i o n  of Pupils  According  t o Subjects  Taken E. Numbers o f P u p i l s  Taking  F. T h e A c c u m u l a t e d S u r p l u s  the Technical  Subjects  of Teachers  V I I . THE CHANGING CHARACTER OF THE TEACHING PERSONNEL AS I T AFFECTS SUPPLY AND DEMAND A. The I n c r e a s i n g P r o p o r t i o n o f Men B. I n c r e a s i n g P r o p o r t i o n o f H i g h e r C.  Relative  D. R e l a t i v e  Certificates  S t a b i l i t y B a s e d on C e r t i f i c a t i o n S t a b i l i t y B a s e d on  Salaries  V I I I . THE USE OF THE MEDIAN YEARS OF EXPERIENCE TO DETERMINE TURNOVER I X . FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS A. A S u m m a r i z a t i o n o f t h e F i n d i n g s B. R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s  L I S T OF TABLES Table 1 "  Page The G r o w t h i n P o p u l a t i o n b y Decades E x p r e s s e d as a Percentage of the P o p u l a t i o n of the Previous Decade f o r Canada f r o m 1871-1931 and F i v e O t h e r C o u n t r i e s f r o m 1901-1931.  54  II  The G r o w t h i n P o p u l a t i o n b y D e c a d e s E x p r e s s e d as a P e r c e n t a g e o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n o f t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r t h e P r o v i n c e s o f Canada i n c l u d i n g Y u k o n a n d t h e N o r t h West T e r r i t o r i e s f r o m 1871 t o 1 9 3 1 . 57  III  The I n c r e a s e i n P o p u l a t i o n and S c h o o l E n r o l m e n t b y D e c a d e s as a P e r c e n t a g e o f t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r B r i t i s h Columbia f r o m 1871-1941. 58  IV  V VI  Enrolment i n s e l e c t e d p a r t s of the S c h o o l System f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1918-1938.  62  Number o f B i r t h s p e r 1000 P o p u l a t i o n f o r E a c h P r o v i n c e and C a n a d a , 1 9 2 1 - 1 9 3 3 .  66  Number o f B i r t h s , B i r t h - R a t e , a n d P o p u l a t i o n f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1928-38 I n c l u s i v e .  66  J  VII VIII  IX  X  XI  XII  Number p e r 1000 o f P o p u l a t i o n b y Age G r o u p s f o r Census Y e a r s f o r C a n a d a 1871-1931  67  Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of School Attendance of P o p u l a t i o n 5 t o 19 y e a r s o f Age I n c l u s i v e , f o r Canada  69  P e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f R u r a l and Urban P o p u l a t i o n by Decades, 1891-1931, f o r B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada.  71  D i s t r i b u t i o n of School Enrolment i n B r i t i s h Columbia by C l a s s e s f o r Four D i f f e r e n t Years i n A c t u a l Numbers and b y P e r c e n t a g e o f T o t a l  73  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Teachers and P u p i l s A c c o r d i n g to t h e D i f f e r e n t C l a s s e s of S c h o o l s and D i s t r i c t s , 1937-38  74  Number o f C o n t r i b u t o r s , R e f u n d s a n d P e n s i o n s G r a n t e d , N o n - A c t i v e A c c o u n t s and S e p a r a t i o n s b y Y e a r s , f r o m A p r i l 1 s t , 1929 t o M a r c h 31,1939  80  Table XIII  XIV  XV  XVI  XVII XVIII XIX  XX  XXI  XXII XXIII XXIV  XXV  Page D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e Demand f o r New T e a c h e r s Created by Expansion or C o n t r a c t i o n , Withd r a w l s a n d R e t i r e m e n t s , 1929-1939 I n c l u s i v e .  82  D i s t r i b u t i o n of C e r t i f i c a t e s Issued Each Y e a r , b y I n s t i t u t i o n s a n d S e x , 1922-39 Inclusive.  92  D i s t r i b u t i o n by Years of Major S u b j e c t s , of a l l Students Completing t h e Teacher T r a i n i n g Course, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1923-39 I n c l u s i v e  97  D i s t r i b u t i o n of P u p i l s , I n s t r u c t o r s and C e n t r e s E n g a g e d i n M a n u a l T r a i n i n g a n d Home E c o n o m i c s b y Y e a r s , 1923-39 I n c l u s i v e .  102  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f P u p i l s by Years f o r Commercial and A g r i c u l t u r e , 1922-23 a n d 1929-39 I n c l u s i v e 105 Demand, b y F a c t o r s , S u p p l y a n d S u r p l u s o f T e a c h e r s b y Y e a r s , 1922-39 I n c l u s i v e .  109  D i s t r i b u t i o n of Teachers by Y e a r s , A c c o r d i n g t o C e r t i f i c a t e s and Sex, i n B r i t i s h Columbia 1913-39 I n c l u s i v e  114  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f T e a c h e r s b y Sex i n V a r i o u s Types o f S c h o o l s f o r B r i t i s h Columbia f o r t h e Y e a r 1935-36.  117  I n c r e a s e i n C e r t i f i c a t e s from 1923-39j Number I s s u e d D u r i n g t h e 16 y e a r s ; E x c e s s over E x p a n s i o n and Y e a r l y Rate o f Turnover f o r B r i t i s h Columbia  120  Median Years of S e r v i c e o f a l l Teachers by S e x , D i s t r i c t s a n d T y p e s o f S c h o o l s f o r 1935-36 123 Average S a l a r i e s by C l a s s e s of D i s t r i c t s and T y p e s o f S c h o o l s f o r t h e Y e a r 1936-37 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f T e a c h e r s b y Sex a n d E x p e r i e n c e i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1935-36 ' C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f Teache.rs b y Y e a r s o f Experience, f o rC i t i e s , D i s t r i c t Municipalit i e s , R u r a l D i s t r i c t s and t h e P r o v i n c e b y I n t e r v a l s o f 5 y e a r s , f o r y e a r 1935-36  124 127  131  L I S T OP ILLUSTRATIONS Illustration 1 "2 3  4  5  6 7  8.  Pag©  The P o p u l a t i o n o f Canada "by D e c a d e s , 1871 t o 1931  56  The P o p u l a t i o n a n d S c h o o l E n r o l m e n t f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a b y D e c a d e s , 1871-1931  60  S c h o o l Attendance f o r E l e m e n t a r y and High S c h o o l s a n d Grade I f o r B r i t i s h f r o m 1 9 1 8 - t o - 1 9 3 8 , As a t June 3 0 t h , o f E a c h Y e a r  64  D i s t r i b u t i o n of C e r t i f i c a t e s I s s u e d Each Y e a r by Sex a t t h e Three I n s t i t u t i o n s , 1922-39 I n c l u s i v e  93  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e S u p p l y o f a n d Demand f o r Teachers b y Y e a r s , 1921-39, I n c l u s i v e . (Data from Table X V I I I )  111  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f T e a c h e r s b y S e x , 1913-39 I n c l u s i v e , f o r B r i t i s h Columbia  115  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Each C l a s s o f C e r t i f i c a t e b y Y e a r s f o r t h e P e r i o d 1913-39 I n c l u s i v e  118  Column D i a g r a m : D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Y e a r s o f Experience f o r Teachers i n C i t i e s , D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t i e s , R u r a l D i s t r i c t s , and f o r the E n t i r e P r o v i n c e f o r t h e Y e a r 1935-36. (Class I n t e r v a l — 5 years.)  130  CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION A« P u r p o s e o f t h e I n v e s t i g a t i o n . This study represents the exact  the f i r s t  attempt t o d i s c o v e r  condition, numerically speaking,  of the teaching  p r o f e s s i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Inspectors  o f s c h o o l s , heads  of t h e t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s and o f f i c i a l s  of the Depart-  ment o f E d u c a t i o n years  have b e e n aware t h a t i n c e r t a i n r e c e n t  many new t e a c h e r s  f a i l e d t o secure  p o s i t i o n s . Indeed  t h i s f a c t became s o g e n e r a l l y known t h a t a number o f p o s s i b l e candidates  r e f r a i n e d from attending t h e normal  schools  w i t h a consequent swing t o t h e other extreme. While thus cognisant  of the surplus  or shortage,  no p r o p e r c o r r e c t i v e  a c t i o n c o u l d b e t a k e n b e c a u s e n o one knew e i t h e r t h e e x t e n t or d u r a t i o n o f t h e d i s p a r i t y .  •  f  '  Canada h a s b e e n s i n g u l a r l y d e v o i d This  of such i n v e s t i g a t i o n s .  i s p a r t i c u l a r l y r e m a r k a b l e when one c o n s i d e r s t h e r e -  l a t i v e l y l a r g e number t h a t h a v e b e e n u n d e r t a k e n i n t h e n e i g h boring republic t o the south.  I n d e e d s t a r t i n g as f a r b a c k  as 1924 a n d o c c u r r i n g w i t h i n c r e a s i n g f r e q u e n c y there  s i n c e 1929  a r e now s o many s u r v e y s , b o t h s t a t e a n d n a t i o n w i d e  t h a t i t has become n e c e s s a r y t h e s u r v e y s .*  t o make a p e r i o d i c a l s u r v e y o f  Not s o i n Canada]  T o d a t e n o r e p o r t has b e e n  d i s c o v e r e d t o i n d i c a t e any such i n q u i r y i n any of t h e P r o v i n c e s • The o n l y l i g h t t h r o w n o n t h e C a n a d i a n  situation  1. R. H. E l i a s s e n a n d E. W. A n d e r s o n , " S u p p l y o f t e a c h e r s and t h e Demand." E d u c a t i o n R e s e a r c h B u l l e t i n , , I X , (November 5, 1 9 5 0 ) p p , 4 3 7 - 4 7 3 . ~  2 has b e e n t h a t p r o d u c e d by t h e D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f  Statistics  t o w h i c h a more e x t e n d e d r e f e r e n c e w i l l be made l a t e r . T h i s s t u d y has b e e n c a r r i e d o u t i n t h e hope t h a t gaps i n o u r I n f o r m a t i o n c o u l d be f i l l e d teaching personnel  i n , concerning  o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . To t h a t e n d ,  c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s e a r c h , we  certain  have t r i e d t o p r e s e n t t h e  the  after changes  t h a t have o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e l a s t t e n t o f i f t e e n y e a r s p o i n t of s c h o o l attendance, o f n o r m a l and  number o f t e a c h e r s  teacher t r a i n i n g graduates,  a r a t i o n s t o m e n t i o n a few  in  employed,numbers  and numbers o f  sep-  of t h e i t e m s , i n o r d e r t h a t i t may  be  p o s s i b l e t o d e c i d e w i t h some d e g r e e o f a c c u r a c y w h e t h e r t h e r e is s t i l l It  a s u r p l u s of t e a c h e r s , a n d  i f so t o what e x t e n t .  i s f u r t h e r hoped t h a t i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a we  witness a d e f i n i t e attempt  t o r e g u l a t e t h e s u p p l y of  shall  teachers  t o t h e demand f o r them. T h i s c a n n o t be done w i t h o u t t h e p e n d i t u r e of time  and  A t b e s t t h e f u t u r e demand  i s an e s t i m a t e . I t i s e q u a l l y o b v i o u s  h o w e v e r t h a t t h e more  t h o r o u g h l y t h e v a r i o u s f a c t o r s a r e a n a l y z e d and i s the  fluidity  i n v e s t i g a t i o n can ever succeed  than the past, present  a n d ^ f u t u r e . The  b e t w e e n p r o g n o s t i c a t i o n and f u l f i l m e n t t h e r e s u l t s and  systematized  estimate.  B e c a u s e o f t h e v a r i a b i l i t y and no s i n g l e  ex-  e f f o r t . O b v i o u s l y the t a s k of f o r e c a s t -  i n g i s f r a u g h t w i t h many p i t f a l l s .  t h e more r e l i a b l e  soon  consequently  o f human a c t i o n s  i n r e f l e c t i n g more  g r e a t e r the time the l e s s r e l i a b l e  lapse are  a s u c c e s s f u l method of b a l a n c i n g  demand and s u p p l y must i n c l u d e a  con-  2. S u p p l y a n d Demand i n t h e P r o f e s s i o n s i n C a n a d a , p p . 7 - 8 , O t t a w a , D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , 1937.  t i n u a l r e v i s i o n o f t h e "basic d a t a . q u i r y cannot  For that reason t h i s i n -  do more t h a n commence t h e f o u n d a t i o n s f o r some  such thorough-going  scheme.  I f i t has succeeded,  i n some  measure, t o do t h i s t h e a u t h o r w i l l f e e l amply recompensed. One o f t h e b e n e f i c i a r i e s w o u l d m o s t c e r t a i n l y be t h e teacher t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s . selves unable blems.  At present  they f i n d  them-  t o s e t t l e c o r r e c t l y c e r t a i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e pro-  The e x t e n t o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s  required t o t r a i n the  r e q u i r e d number o f t e a c h e r s p e r y e a r w o u l d become much a matter  of guess.  ious branches  Teachers  less  c o u l d be d i r e c t e d i n t o t h e var»  of the p r o f e s s i o n i n p r o p o r t i o n t o the r e l a t i v e  demands f o r e a c h .  Entranoe  requirements  c o u l d be a d j u s t e d  more a c c u r a t e l y t o e x c l u d e a u t o m a t i c a l l y a n y l a r g e numbers i n excess  o f t h e demand a n d t h u s t o make i t p o s s i b l e t o s e -  cure t h e b e s t o f t h a t group which  c a n be a t t r a c t e d t o t h e  teaching profession. No l e s s c o u l d p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s be g i v e n more p r e c i s e guidance  during the l a t t e r years  o f h i g h s c h o o l work.  P r i n c i p a l s m i g h t r e p o r t t h e number o f l i k e l y a n d s u i t a b l e candidates i n t h e i r schools.  I f necessary students might ;  t h e n be c h o s e n o n a p r o r a t a b a s i s . has t h e a t t e n d a n c e  corresponded  be no d o u b t t h a t t h i s  Seldom, i n t h e p a s t ,  w i t h t h e demand.  There can  l a c k o f b a l a n c e was l a r g e l y due t o  i g n o r a n c e b o t h on t h e p a r t o f t h e s t u d e n t s a n d o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s . The i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y a l l r o u n d  arising  from  t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s o f s u p p l y a n d demand would amply r e p a y t h e e f f o r t expended i n d e t e r m i n i n g them.  T h i s S t u d y , h o w e v e r , may  r e n d e r a more i m m e d i a t e s e r -  v i c e "by e x p o s i n g a d d i t i o n a l p r o b l e m s • one  o f t h e most p o t e n t f a c t o r s  I t would appear t h a t  i n i n c r e a s i n g the years  s e r v i c e o f t e a c h e r s i n g e n e r a l i s t o make t h e i r  of  remuneration  r e a s o n a b l y h i g h b u t more p a r t i c u l a r l y t o make i t a p p r o a c h t h e maximum o f t h a t c l a s s o f t e a c h e r t o w h i c h t h e y I t w o u l d be  belong.  i n t e r e s t i n g t o know, f o r e x a m p l e , what f a c t o r s  a r e o p e r a t i v e i n r e t a i n i n g t e a c h e r s , e s p e c i a l l y women, i n the p r o f e s s i o n . Does t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r m a r r i a g e r a t e a t w h i c h women t e a c h e r s w i t h d r a w i n any way erences  and  determine  i s the o p p o r t u n i t y  a f f e c t e d b y d i f f e r e n c e s i n wage g r o u p s o r  i n location?  S i m i l a r l y i t may  s o o n be  know t o what e x t e n t e n t r a n c e r e q u i r e m e n t s  the  diff-  important to  c a n be r a i s e d  be-  f o r e r e d u c i n g t h e number o f c a n d i d a t e s b e l o w t h e minimum number i f no a l t e r a t i o n i s made i n t h e p r e s e n t c o n d i t i o n s of  work and p a y .  T h e s e and o t h e r q u e s t i o n s have come t o m i n i  as t h e d a t a h a v e b e e n c o l l e c t e d a n d o r g a n i z e d . more c o n v e n i e n t , h o w e v e r t o m e n t i o n B.  Importance  ed the importance  ing  be  arise.  o f a B a l a n c e B e t w e e n S u p p l y and Demand.  A number o f A m e r i c a n  demand.  them as t h e y  It will  writers  on t h e s u b j e c t h a v e  of s t r i k i n g a balance between s u p p l y  W i t h t h i s t h e r e c a n be  destroys the morale  little  disagreement.  o f t h e t e a c h i n g b o d y more t h a n  stressand Noththe  k n o w l e d g e t h a t t h e r e a r e l a r g e numbers o f i d l e t e a c h e r s . I t produces  a decided f e e l i n g of i n s e c u r i t y both f o r p o s i t i o n s  and i n c o m e .  Unemployed t e a c h e r s a l l t o o f r e q u e n t l y o f f e r  t h e i r s e r v i c e s a t g r e a t l y r e d u c e d p r i c e s . Many s c h o o l  boards  are not s l o w t o t a k e advantage of the changed c o n d i t i o n s f r e q u e n t l y make use serious shortage  of the s i t u a t i o n t o d e p r e s s s a l a r i e s .  of teachers  t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n as ered standards  i s a l m o s t e q u a l l y as b a d  i t results  of the  a n d p r o f e s s i o n a l g r o w t h and  t i n u e s may  There i s n o t h i n g  regression.  time t o prepare f o r  a v o c a t i o n o n l y t o f i n d t h e s a c r i f i c e and u s u a l consequences of a bad  e f f o r t were t o  s t a r t plague the  g i n n e r - - r e d u c e d r e s o u r c e s , w a s t e d t i m e , and How  con-  q u i t e so d i s h e a r t e n i n g t o a young p e r -  s o n as t o h a v e e x p e n d e d b o t h money and  a v a i l . The  teach-  educational  i f the s i t u a t i o n  perchance l e a d t o a d e f i n i t e  Low-  teaching  t o be f i l l e d w i t h p o o r e r  e r s . T h e r e i s a c o n s e q u e n t l o s s i n t h e amount o f  much b e t t e r i t i s f o r t h o s e  who  p o s i t i o n f o r them, p r o v i d e d t h e y  it  does n o t  I n t h i s day  be-  are p r e p a r i n g  themselves  are s u f f i c i e n t l y  a  proficient  of g r e a t e r v o c a t i o n a l guidance  seem g o o d enough t o l e a v e t o c h a n c e s u c h a n  p o r t a n t f a c t o r as t h e  q u a l i t y of the  competition  or by a l l o w i n g the  pared beginners any  s t a f f by  im-  supply.  A s c h o o l s y s t e m i s no b e t t e r t h a n i t s t e a c h e r s . To mine a good t e a c h i n g  no  l o s t momentum.  f o r t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n t o know t h a t t h e r e w i l l be  t o be d e s e r v i n g .  A  f o r the  i n lowered standards.  reduce the average a b i l i t y  body by p e r m i t t i n g v a c a n c i e s  progress  and  under-  submitting i t to uncontrolled i n f i l t r a t i o n of p o o r l y  pre-  i s t o a f f e c t s e r i o u s l y the p r o f i c i e n c y of  school system.  I t i s almost axiomatie  that teachers  as  a c l a s s r e c e i v e s m a l l e r f i n a n c i a l r e t u r n s f o r t h e amount o f p r e p a r a t i o n and  a b i l i t y r e q u i r e d t h a n i s t r u e o f any  other  g r o u p o f w o r k e r s . The c o m p e n s a t i n g f a c t o r i s t h e g r e a t e r s e c u r i t y . When, h o w e v e r , s e c u r i t y i s i n j e o p a r d y a n d t h e a l r e a d y s m a l l i n c o m e i s "being g r e a t l y r e d u c e d i t becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t t o a t t r a c t e i t h e r new t a l e n t o f t h e r e quired capacity or retain the o l d . Sudden and pronounced  changes  i n c o n d i t i o n s seem t o  c a u s e more s e r i o u s r e p e r c u s s i o n s t h a n d o s t e a d y t h o u g h normal ones. E v e n t u a l l y c o n d i t i o n s r i g h t themselves  sub-  whether  any a t t e m p t i s made t o e x e r c i s e c o n t r o l o r n o t , as e v e n  this  s t u d y shows { s e e p a g e 103), b u t a l w a y s t h e r e f o l l o w s a s w i n g to  t h e other extreme. I n t e l l i g e n t c o n t r o l s h o u l d e l i m i n a t e  the  excesses o f these swings w i t h a consequent  a l l — i n  this  benefit t o  case not only t o t h e present teachers, p r o -  s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s and t h e e n t i r e s c h o o l system b u t t o t h e .  .  .  whole  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  of society.  .  T h e r e f o r e one c a n n o t b u t f e e l t h a t a n y  d e v i c e , even though i t be b u t p a r t i a l l y s u c c e s s f u l ,  which  t e n d s t o b a l a n c e s u p p l y a n d demand i s r e n d e r i n g a s e r v i c e to  mankind.  0.  Nature of t h e I n v e s t i g a t i o n .  For  t h e purposes  of this  s t u d y t h e f o l l o w i n g e x p r e s s i o n s have  been u s e d t h r o u g h o u t as here  stated.  B y demand i s u n d e r s t o o d t h e number o f p o s i t i o n s p e r y e a r c r e a t e d b y t h e r e m o v a l o f t e a c h e r s , f o r any cause whats o e v e r , f r o m t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n p l u s o r minus any p o s i t i o n s due t o a n i n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e i n t h e s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t . It the  t h u s e q u a l s t h e t o t a l number o f v a c a n c i e s I n a y e a r number f i l l e d b y a n i n t e r c h a n g e o f t e a c h e r s .  less  By s u p p l y i s meant t h e t o t a l number o f q u a l i f i e d ers  teach-  a t a n y one p e r i o d w i l l i n g a n d a n x i o u s t o s e c u r e a p o s i -  tion*  I t would i n c l u d e t h e graduates  of each year p l u s  f r o m p r e v i o u s y e a r s who h a d n o t b e e n p l a c e d , b u t who  those  still  s o d e s i r e d , p l u s a n y who m i g h t b e r e t u r n i n g t o t h e p r o f e s s i o n a f t e r a lapse of time. Many i n v e s t i g a t o r s p r e f e r t o c o n s i d e r demand as t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s a n d s u p p l y as t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h e r s - - a c t i v e a n d n o n - a c t i v e — b u t is  p a r t i c u l a r l y concerned  study  with the surplus or shortage of  t e a c h e r s , i t i s not so r e a d i l y brought In  as t h i s  out on t h a t b a s i s .  a c t u a l f a c t t h e d a t a r e l a t i v e t o s u p p l y have been o f  necessity confined to the f i r s t graduates. complete  group c o m p r i s i n g i t - - n a m e l y  T h e r e seems t o be n o known m e t h o d s h o r t o f a  canvass  of former  graduates  t o determine  how many  are s t i l l p o t e n t i a l l y p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s . A new t e a c h e r i s one who was n o t i n a s c h o o l in  the previous year or years  outside of the P r o v i n c e ) .  system  (except t h o s e on exchange  This would i n c l u d e c h i e f l y  grad-  uates and a few r e t u r n i n g t o t h e p r o f e s s i o n a f t e r an absence of  a y e a r o r more. T o t a l s e p a r a t i o n s a r e t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h e r s  l e a v e t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n f o r any r e a s o n whatsoever,  who in  each p e r i o d o f time. Turnover  i s t a k e n t o mean, i n t h i s  c a s e , t h e number o f  new t e a c h e r s p l a c e d p e r y e a r . The number o f e x c h a n g e s  means t h e number o f p o s i t i o n s  f i l l e d b y an i n t e r c h a n g e o f t e a c h e r s • R e p l a c e m e n t s s t a n d f o r t h e number o f t e a c h e r s r e q u i r e d to  fill  t h e v a c a n c i e s c r e a t e d b y t h o s e who  f e s s i o n * The  demand e q u a l s t h e r e p l a c e m e n t s  leave the  pro-  when t h e r e i s  no c h a n g e i n t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n . Many a u t h o r s u s e t h e t e r m plus replacements quirements The  "turnover" t o cover  exchanges  but t h a t meaning does not s e r v e t h e r e -  of t h i s  procedure  inquiry. e m p l o y e d b y t h i s s t u d y has  c o n s i s t e d of  f o l l o w i n g the t r e n d of each f a c t o r over a p e r i o d of t e n t o f i f t e e n years depending upon the l e n g t h of time f o r which t h e r e h a v e b e e n any d a t a . f i n e d themselves e r m e t h o d has  Other  t o the r e s u l t s  i n v e s t i g a t i o n s have of a s i n g l e y e a r .  The  the danger of assuming the r e s u l t s be  form-  c e r t a i n advantages i n t h a t i t b r i n g s t o  any m a r k e d c h a n g e s t h a t h a v e o c c u r r e d i n t h e p a s t and  to  con-  o f any p a r t i c u l a r  light avoids year  typical. O t h e r d i f f e r e n c e s a r i s e f r o m t h e mode o f s e c u r i n g t h e  basic data.  Almost without e x c e p t i o n Amerioan  have u s e d t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e m e t h o d . cedure  has  investigators  I n some c a s e s t h e  pro-  c o n s i s t e d o f n o t h i n g more e l a b o r a t e t h a n a c i r -  c u l a r i z a t i o n of a l l the s t a t e superintendents w i t h a t h a t t h e y i n d i c a t e how  many t e a c h e r s t h e y t h o u g h t  p l a c e d i n t h e y e a r , and how  would  many c e r t i f i c a t e s w o u l d  issued during the year. Obviously the r e l i a b i l i t y r e s u l t s from such a procedure  request be  be  of t h e  depended upon t h e a c c u r a c y  the o b s e r v a t i o n s of each s t a t e s u p e r i n t e n d e n t which  of  i n many  c a s e s w e r e * n o t h i n g b e t t e r t h a n g u e s s e s . O t h e r s have gone t o considerable lengths, sending teachers, e n l i s t i n g the help others lists  out q u e s t i o n n a i r e s  toa l l  of c i t y superintendents  and  t o t r a c e r e c e n t g r a d u a t e s who were no l o n g e r on t h e of active teachers,  a n d e v e n i n some c a s e s  i n g a l l employed t e a c h e r s . s t r i c t e d t o state-wide  reregister-  S u c h d e t a i l e d schemes were r e -  surveys. This n a t u r a l l y produced  much more e x a c t r e s u l t s ,  Essentially a l lmaterial i s collect-  e d f r o m r e p o r t s a n d t o t h a t e x t e n t t h e r e c a n be no d i s t i n c t i o n between t h e present  study and other s i m i l a r s t u d i e s ,  except that t h e i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e present ed almost e n t i r e l y from s t a n d a r d  s t u d y was d e r i v -  government r e p o r t s o f v a r i o u s  k i n d s r a t h e r t h a n f r o m t h e answers t o a p a r t i c u l a r  question-  naire. T h i s l a s t d i f f e r e n c e has meant t h a t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i s n e v e r up t o d a t e as c o m p a r e d t o t h a t o b t a i n e d b y t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e method b u t s i n c e a l l government r e p o r t s a r e c o m p u l s o r y , continuous  and u n i f o r m  f o r by an equal  i n content  t h i s d e l a y i s compensated  i f not g r e a t e r degree of  Most o f t h e m a t e r i a l u s e d i n t h i s  accuracy.  i n q u i r y has b e e n g a i n -  e d f r o m t h e A n n u a l R e p o r t s o f t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n f<T B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a a n d f r o m t h e C a n a d a Y e a r Books p r e p a r e d t h e D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f Statistics» has  been secured  Pension  by  Additional information  f r o m t h e A n n u a l R e p o r t f o r t h e Teachers''  Act, from the A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r of the U n i v e r s i t y  of B r i t i s h Columbia, f r o m t h e R e g i s t r a r o f t h e Department o f Education,  V i c t o r i a ; t h e Bureau of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s ,  Victoria;  the D i r e c t o r s  1  o f Home E c o n o m i c s and M a n u a l T r a i n i n g , V i c t -  o r i a ; and f r o m two b u l l e t i n s p u b l i s h e d b y t h e D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of  S t a t i s t i c s , Education S t a t i s t i c s  Branch,  Ottawa.  Refer-  e n c e s w i l l be made t o t h e s e s o u r c e s a t t h e a p p r o p r i a t e p l a c e s . C e r t a i n d e s i r a b l e information proved to  hard  g e t . Whenever a t e a c h e r l e a v e s t h e p r o f e s s i o n t h i s  w i t h o u t any  how  q u i t t e a c h i n g each y e a r — a most Important t r y i n g t o e s t i m a t e t h e demand. who  occurs  c o r r e s p o n d i n g r e c o r d o f t h e e v e n t . Hence i t has  been e x c e e d i n g l y d i f f i c u l t t o determine  ers  t o be v e r y  many t e a c h e r s  t h i n g t o know when  F o r t u n a t e l y s i n c e 1929  f o r any r e a s o n w i t h d r a w f r o m a c t i v e s e r v i c e  teach-  may  s e c u r e a r e f u n d o f t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e Teachers» P e n s i o n F u n d . S i n c e a r e c o r d o f t h e number o f y e a r l y r e f u n d s been kept  i t has b e e n p o s s i b l e t o d i s c o v e r how  many s e p a r a -  t i o n s t h e r e have b e e n p e r y e a r . ( A s m a l l e r r o r a r i s e s a t p o i n t due  this  t o t h e f a c t t h a t some a p p a r e n t l y s t o p t e a c h i n g b u t  do n o t a t once a s k f o r t h e i r r e f u n d ) .  However e v e n t h e s e  data are d e f i c i e n t  i n c e r t a i n r e s p e c t s b e c a u s e no n o t e i s  made o f s e x , y e a r s  of e x p e r i e n c e , c l a s s of c e r t i f i c a t e ,  of  work, or type of s c h o o l t o which t h e r e t i r i n g  belongs.  S u c h i n f o r m a t i o n w o u l d no d o u b t c o n f i r m t h e  r a t e s o f s e p a r a t i o n b o t h a b s o l u t e l y and u s e f u l i t might be,  sus-  distinct  r e l a t i v e l y . However  s u c h k n o w l e d g e m u s t a w a i t t h e t i m e when  a more t h o r o u g h - g o i n g  and comprehensive r e c o r d o f t h e  personnel i s compiled.  the purpose,  type  teacher  p i c i o n t h a t d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s o f t e a c h e r s have  ing  has  And  now  having b r i e f l y  teach-  suggested  v a l u e and modus o p e r a n d i o f t h i s s t u d y i t i s  time t o t u r n t o a c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the problem  itself.  12 . ,  CHAPTER  TT  Summary o f S i m i l a r I n v e s t i g a t i o n s I n O t h e r A.  I n the U n i t e d  Countries.  States.  Before beginning  the present study i t i s  enlightening  t o examine r a t h e r b r i e f l y the r e s u l t s of s i m i l a r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s elsewhere, p a r t i c u l a r l y  i n the U n i t e d  States.  Since  1924  a  number .of t h e s e have b e e n c a r r i e d out--some s t a t e - w i d e , on a n a t i o n a l s c a l e . I n a d d i t i o n many a r t i c l e s n a t u r e have b e e n p u b l i s h e d or m i n i m i z i n g The ing  task  the  decrying  general'  o v e r s u p p l y of  teachers  problem.  o f s o r t i n g out f r o m t h i s l a r g e and  ever-increas-  amount o f m a t e r i a l a c o m p l e t e g i s t o f a l l t h a t m i g h t  c l a s s e d as  important i s beyond the  s u f f i c i e n t , at t h i s p o i n t , to say two  the  of a  others  c o - w o r k e r s , R.  results reported first  report  supply  a p p e a r e d s i n c e 1924  regular As  scope of t h i s s t u d y . I t i s t h a t s u c h has b e e n done  E l i a s s e n and  E. W.  of a survey of the and  w i t h an  of E d u c a t i o n , There are  i n the  1930.  report  i t is difficult  Since  1. R.  H.  then at  r e v i e w up  of t h e U n i t e d  studies had  vary  fairly to  date.  States,  as f r o m s t a t e  common b a s i s . D i f f e r e n c e s  E l l i a s s e n and  appear-  Bureau  t o make i n t e r s t a t e c o m p a r i s o n s .  t o o many e l e m e n t s t h a t may  s t a t e t o a l l o w f o r any  Their  annotated b i b l i o g r a p h y . This  i n t e r v a l s t h e y have b r o u g h t t h i s out  which  by  their  significant  demand f o r t e a c h e r s  i s s u e o f November 5,  pointed  A n d e r s o n , and  i n the Education Research B u l l e t i n .  consisted  r e l a t i n g t o the  ed i n t h e  H.  be  E.  W.  in  to  wealth,  A n d e r s o n , op. c i t .  13 e d u c a t i o n a l t r a d i t i o n s , methods o f o r g a n i z a t i o n and t i o n b e t w e e n s t a t e s and  c o u n t r i e s are so g r e a t  s u l t s of a s u r v e y i n a g i v e n  state, province  administra-  t h a t the  re-  or country  are  a p p l i c a b l e o n l y t o the  r e g i o n under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . For  r e a s o n i t i s n o t t o be  assumed t h a t any  in this  conclusions  that  mentioned  c h a p t e r , . i n anyway m o d i f y t h o s e l a t e r d e d u c e d f o r  B r i t i s h Columbia but c o r r e s p o n d e n c e and A very education e r s . The  serve  m e r e l y t o b r i n g out p o i n t s  of  variance.  elaborate  a n a l y s i s o f t h e p r o b l e m was  made  w i t h the N a t i o n a l Survey of the E d u c a t i o n f o l l o w i n g i s a b r i e f resume o f t h e more  on  of T e a c h -  important  -3 ideas  contained I t was  i n the  pointed  a d j u s t i n g supply  discussion.  out f i r s t  and  of a l l t h a t the p r o b l e m  demand was  ing p o s i t i o n s f o r teachers  and  t o choose f o r or a g a i n s t , but a l morale of m i l l i o n s  not /only a p r o b l e m of helping prospective  Further  the  i n c r e a s i n g t h e amount o f p r e - s e r v i c e e d u c a t i o n numbers b e i n g p r e p a r e d , e v e n t h o u g h i t was t o new  teachers  and  was  not  t o be  a l l y embarrassing to present t h a n t h a t demanded o f new  profession-  remedy o f  t o reduce  made t o a p p l y  r e t r o a c t i v e , was  teachers  "procur-  teachers  t h e m a i n t e n a n c e of. t h e  of t e a c h e r s . "  of  with less  the only  profession-  preparation  teachers.  2. Summary and I n t e r p r e t a t i o n , U n i t e d S t a t e s O f f i c e o f E d u c a t i o n , B u l l e t i n 1933, No. 10. V o l V I , N a t i o n a l S u r v e y o f t h e E d u c a t i o n o f T e a c h e r s , W a s h i n g t o n , Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e 1935, pp x i i i - f c 2 5 3 3. I b i d . 4. I b i d . , p 191  The  a u t h o r s t h e n gave a v e r y complete d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e  f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g b o t h s u p p l y a n d demand w h i c h i s h e r e p r e s e n t e d as a b r i e f  outline.  "The e d u c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g t h e demand f o r teachers a r e : (1) The number o f t e a c h e r s , s u p e r v i s o r s , a d m i n i s t r a t o r s a c t u a l l y employed d u r i n g any y e a r i n t h e s c h o o l systems o f a S t a t e . T h e s e r e c o r d s s h o u l d show t h e number b y — (a) S c h o o l d i v i s i o n o r l e v e l : e.g. k i n d e r g a r t e n , s e n i o r high. (b) Grades o r s u b j e c t s t a u g h t : 5 t h Grade o r M a t h e m a t i c s (e) S p e c i a l t y p e s o f s u p e r v i s o r y and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e positions, ( d ) Men a n d women. (2) I n c r e a s e s  and decreases  i n school population.  ( a ) B y ages a n d g r a d e s (b) By communities (3) E x t e n s i o n o f t h e e d u c a t i o n a l s y s t e m t o i n c l u d e new g r o u p s (a) K i n d e r g a r t e n , n u r s e r y and p r e s c h o o l (b) A d u l t e d u c a t i o n (4) E x p a n s i o n  of special educational services  (a) T e a c h e r s o f s p e c i a l s u b j e c t s , e . g . a r t , p h y s i c a l education, music. (b) S u p e r v i s o r s , e . g . p r i m a r y , m u s i c , g e o g r a p h y , h e a l t h , home e c o n o m i c s . (c) V i s i t i n g t e a c h e r s and s p e c i a l case work. •'(d) S c h o o l n u r s e s , p e d i a t r i c i a n s , d e n t i s t s , p s y c h o l o gists . (5) I n c r e a s e s a n d d e c r e a s e s i n s i z e o f c l a s s e s p e r t e a c h e r . (6) I n c r e a s e s a n d d e c r e a s e s i n t e a c h i n g l o a d , e s p e c i a l l y i n high school. (7) I n c r e a s e s a n d d e c r e a s e s i n t h e a v e r a g e l e n g t h o f t e a c h ing service. (8) Age o f r e t i r e m e n t . (9) W h e t h e r o r n o t l e a v e s o f a b s e n c e a r e a l l o w e d a n d t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t e a c h e r s who a r e e l i g i b l e a n d p r o p o r t i o n who t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f t h e p r i v i l e g e , (a) L e a v e s o f a b s e n c e f o r s t u d y o r t r a v e l . (b) M a t e r n i t y l e a v e s . (10) R e g u l a t i o n s g o v e r n i n g t h e employment o f m a r r i e d women and w h e t h e r o r n o t t e a c h e r s who m a r r y may r e t a i n t h e i r positions.  (11) The e x t e n t t o w h i c h t e a c h e r s l e a v e a s t a t e f o r e m p l o y ment i n a n e i g h b o r i n g s t a t e . (12) The e x t e n t t o w h i c h t e a c h e r s l e a v e t e a c h i n g t o e n t e r other occupations or p r o f e s s i o n s . (13) M o r t a l i t y . a n d i l l n e s s among t e a c h e r s o f t h e s t a t e . (14) L e n g t h o f s c h o o l t e r m — w h e t h e r one t e a c h e r may c o m p l e t e two c o n t r a c t s w i t h i n a y e a r . (15) R e g u l a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g employment o f f u l l t i m e t e a c h e r s f o r e v e n i n g s c h o o l s , p l a y g r o u n d s u p e r v i s i o n and o t h e r p a r t time work. E d u c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s . (1) S t a n d a r d s o f t h e amount a n d n a t u r e o f t h e p r e p a r a t i o n r e q u i r e d f o r fcaoh t y p e o f p o s i t i o n . Minimum c e r t i f i c a t i o n requirements f o r each s t a t e f o r each type of p o s i t i o n f o r which c e r t i f i c a t e s are i s s u e d . (2) A d m i s s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r e a c h t y p e o f p o s i t i o n . (a) S c h o l a r s h i p r e c o r d - - i n t e l l e c t u a l a b i l i t y . ( b ) A g e , h e a l t h , p e r s o n a l i t y , c h a r a c t e r , and I n t e r e s t i n teaching. ( c ) Any s p e c i a l a b i l i t i e s , e.g. music f o r a s p e c i a l teacher or s u p e r v i s o r of music. (3) S p e c i a l r e s t r i c t i o n s u p o n c e r t a i n p o s i t i o n s . (a) S e x — k i n d e r g a r t e n , n u r s i n g , c o a c h i n g . (b) A d d i t i o n a l t r a i n i n g : e.g. cardiac class f o r hard of h e a r i n g .  or  class  (4) Number o f u n e m p l o y e d t e a c h e r s i n a s t a t e , m e e t i n g t h e e x i s t i n g s t a n d a r d s f o r each t y p e of p o s i t i o n and h o l d i n g a v a l i d c e r t i f i c a t e to teach. (a) Unemployed (b) O t h e r w i s e e m p l o y e d b u t d e s i r i n g a t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n . (5) Number o f u n e m p l o y e d t e a c h e r s i n n e i g h b o r i n g s t a t e s meeti n g e x i s t i n g s t a n d a r d s f o r e a c h t y p e o f p o s i t i o n , whose c e r t i f i c a t e s h a v e b e e n o r w o u l d be a p p r o v e d b y t h e s t a t e . (a) U n e m p l o y e d (b) O t h e r w i s e e m p l o y e d b u t d e s i r i n g a t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n ( 6 ) Number o f s t u d e n t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s p r e p a r i n g t o be t e a c h e r s o r whose p r o g r a m o f s u b j e c t s w o u l d q u a l i f y them f o r t e a c h i n g c e r t i f i c a t e s . (a) B y t y p e s o f p o s i t i o n f o r w h i c h t h e y a r e q u a l i f y i n g . (b) By l e n g t h o f c u r r i c u l a r b e l n g f o l l o w e d . ( c ) By t y p e s o f i n s t i t u t i o n s i n w h i c h s t u d e n t s a r e preparing. (7) The r e l a t i v e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f t e a c h i n g c o m p a r e d w i t h o t h e r f i e l d s o f w o r k open t o t h e same s t u d e n t s i n s u c h m a t t e r s a s : ( a ) S a l a r i e s - - r a n g e s , i n c r e m e n t s , s t a b i l i t y , and o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r supplementing Income.  16 (b) V a c a t i o n s (c) Retirement p r o v i s i o n s (d) L e a v e s o f a b s e n c e ( e ) W o r k i n g c o n d i t i o n s s u c h as s i z e o f c l a s s e s , k i n d o f s p e c i a l h e l p , n a t u r e o f s u p e r v i s i o n , o t h e r means o f p r o f e s s i o n a l growth and development. ( I t w o u l d seem d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r s t u d e n t s g i v e thought t o a l l these c o n d i t i o n s b e f o r e choosing a vocation.) ( f ) S o c i a l and r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s and r e s t r i c tions. (8) P r o f e s s i o n a l p r e s t i g e a c c o r d e d t e a c h e r s — p o s s i b i l i t i e s for positions of leadership. (9) D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n . (a) R u r a l and urban (b) E l e m e n t a r y and s e c o n d a r y . (10) R e g u l a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g m a r r i a g e , e s p e c i a l l y f o r t e a c h e r s who m a r r y w h i l e t e a c h i n g . (11) E x t e n t t o w h i c h q u a l i f i e d t e a c h e r s f r o m o t h e r s t a t e s a r e employed. ( a ) P r o m what s t a t e s ( b ) I n what t y p e s o f p o s i t i o n s (12) E x t e n t t o w h i c h t h o s e f r o m o t h e r f i e l d s o f w o r k q u a l i f y for teaching positions. (13) E x t e n t t o w h i c h f o r m e r t e a c h e r s r e t u r n t o t e a c h i n g a f t e r p e r i o d s o f employment i n o t h e r f i e l d s . 1  (14) S e c u r i t y o f t e n u r e . " S A n a t i o n w i d e s u r v e y was u n d e r t a k e n  i n 1930-31 and c e r -  t a i n o b s e r v a t i o n s w e r e made a s a r e s u l t . A "new" t e a c h e r was d e f i n e d as a t e a c h e r who was n o t e m p l o y e d i n t h e p r e s e n t s c h o o l s y s t e m l a s t y e a r a n d " m o b i l i t y r a t i o " as t h e r a t i o o f "new"  t e a c h e r s t o t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h e r s  i n t h e same  t y p e o f p o s i t i o n . T h u s , i f t h e r e were 2,000 t e a c h e r s a n d 5 0 0 r e p o r t e d as new t o t h a t p o s i t i o n t h e m o b i l i t y r a t i o was s a i d t o be 1:4.  T h i s d e f i n i t i o n d i d not d i s t i n g u i s h between  t r a n s f e r s f r o m one s c h o o l s y s t e m t o a n o t h e r i t y t o another)  a n d t h o s e who were b e g i n n e r s  t h a t t h e y were t e a c h i n g f o r t h e f i r s t 5.  I b i d . , p p . 195-197  time.  ( f r o m one communi n t h e sense  17 The  method of - i n v e s t i g a t i o n c o n s i s t e d of u s i n g a q u e s t i o n n a i r e  w h i c h a s k e d t h e p r e s e n t t e a c h e r i f he p o s i t i o n , i f he  ( o r she)  ( o r s h e ) were new  h a d b e e n t e a c h i n g b e f o r e and  t o the  what  had h a p p e n e d t o t h e p r e d e c e s s o r - - i n o t h e r words t h e c a u s e o f the vacancy. The m o b i l i t y r a t i o f o r t h e e n t i r e n a t i o n i n 1930-31 as  was  follows: (1) E l e m e n t a r y  school teachers  1:4.8  (2) J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s (3) S e n i o r h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s  1:6.7 1:4.9  ^  C e r t a i n m a r k e d v a r i a t i o n s were n o t i c e d as w o u l d be I n t h e open c o u n t r y o f one i t y r a t i o was  1:2.5  t h e n 100,000 i t was cases.  and two  expected.  teacher-schools the  whereas i n c i t i e s  mobil-  o f a p o p u l a t i o n o f more  1 : 2 0 . 2 — f o r elementary  schools i n both  A l m o s t as w i d e v a r i a t i o n s e x i s t e d as b e t w e e n s t a t e s .  W a s h i n g t o n D.  C. f o r e x a m p l e was  low w i t h a r a t i o of  w h i l e o t h e r s s u c h as N o r t h D a k o t a were h i g h w i t h a  1:16  ratio  o f 1:2.15. The  causes of vacancies  d i s t r i b u t e d as  i n elementary  follows:  ( 1 ) V a c a n c y due t o t r a n s f e r t o a n o t h e r (2) B e c a u s e o f m a r r i a g e  of p r e d e c e s s o r  (3) Death o f p r e d e c e s s o r (4) R e t i r e m e n t  6.  I b i d . , p.  s c h o o l s o n l y were  201  of predecessor  position  42.2$ 16.4$ ,1% 6.0$  18 (5) P r e d e c e s s o r e n t e r e d a n o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n o r occupation  6.5$  (6) P r e d e c e s s o r l e f t  3.6$  on l e a v e o f a b s e n c e , I l l n e s s  24.6$ 7  (7) Not s t a t e d Prom t h i s i t i s o b v i o u s t h a t n e a r l y h a l f t h e did  vacancies,42.2$  n o t r e s u l t i n t h e demand f o r a b e g i n n i n g t e a c h e r . Prom a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e a v e r a g e m o b i l i t y r a t i o f o r  the whole n a t i o n i t appeared t h a t about l / 5 of t h e t e a c h e r s were new t e a c h e r s . As o n e - h a l f o f t h e s e i n d i c a t e d t h e y h a d not taught b e f o r e , about o n e - h a l f o f o n e - f i f t h or o n e - t e n t h of  a l l t h e t e a c h e r s were b e g i n n e r s  o r r e a l l y new t e a c h e r s .  The f o l l o w i n g o u t l i n e o f t h e i r s u g g e s t e d p l a n f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e demand i s i l l u s t r a t i v e  o f the refinement t o which  t h e y c a r r i e d t h e i r a n a l y s i s a n d o f t h e number o f f a c t o r s w h i c h e n t e r i n t o s u c h a p r e d i c t i o n . They s u g g e s t e d ability  the desir-  of b a r r i n g ten-year p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s . P l a n n i n g , they  s a i d , must e x t e n d o v e r a p e r i o d o f y e a r s b e c a u s e t e a c h e r s a r e t a k i n g f o u r and f i v e y e a r o f p r e - s e r v i c e e d u c a t i o n a l p r e p a r a t i o n p l u s a y e a r cadet t e a c h i n g o r unemployment.  Furthermore  c e n s u s d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e i n p e r i o d s o f t e n y e a r s . However, t h e y f e l t t h e p l a n s h o u l d be r e v i s e d , p r o b a b l y e v e r y two years  i n t h e l i g h t o f a s many d a t a as a v a i l a b l e . The  follow-  ing  f o r m u l a i s s u g g e s t e d as a b a s i s f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e demand  for  t e a c h e r s . I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o know t h e e d u c a t i o n a l f i e l d  as w e l l as t h e n u m b e r s . a^b+c-fd+e+f-fg+h-f-l+j+k -1-m-n-o+p 3 x 7.  Ibid.,p.  202  19 a «. number o f t e a c h e r s who have b e e n a n d w i l l be r e t i r e d during the year, b = number o f t e a c h e r s who d i e d o r s t o p p e d t e a c h i n g because o f i l l n e s s , c > n u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s who s t o p p e d t e a c h i n g ( n o t on l e a v e of absence) t o c o n t i n u e t h e i r p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g , d - number o f t e a c h e r s who m a r r i e d a n d s t o p p e d t e a c h i n g . Qa number o f t e a c h e r s n e e d e d f o r new e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s i n the elementary f i e l d . f - number o f t e a c h e r s who r e s i g n e d o r were d i s m i s s e d f o r i n e f f i c i e n c y or other Causes. g x I n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e i n number o f t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s because o f an i n c r e a s e o r decrease i n t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n o r because o f an i n c r e a s e i n t h e average d a i l y attendance. h •» I n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e i n t h e number o f t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s causedby decreases o r i n c r e a s e s i n t h e s i z e o f classes per teacher or i n the teaching load. i » T h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e number t a k i n g l e a v e o f a b s e n c e ( ) a n d t h e number r e t u r n i n g f r o m l e a v e ( - ) . D i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e number o f t e a c h e r s who l e f t t o t e a c h i n another s t a t e ( ) and those employed from other s t a t e s (-). k s The d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e number o f t e a c h e r s who e n t e r e d a n o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n o r p r o f e s s i o n ( ) and t h e number e m p l o y e d f r o m a n o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n o r p r o f e s s i o n (-). , * 1- Number o f t e a c h e r s r e c r u i t e d t h r o u g h e x a m i n a t i o n s , c a d e t t e a c h i n g and o t h e r s o u r c e s . m> Number o f t e a c h e r s e l i m i n a t e d b e c a u s e o f w i t h d r a w o r curtailment of s e r v i c e s . ns Number o f t e a c h e r s who r e t u r n e d t o t e a c h i n g h a v i n g some o c c u p a t i o n o t h e r t h a n t e a c h i n g i n t h e m e a n t i m e . Os Number o f u n e m p l o y e d e l e m e n t a r y t e a c h e r s whose p r e paration i s acceptable i n q u a l i t y , quantity, prof e s s i o n a l n a t u r e a n d r e c e n c y , who c a n be a b s o r b e d each year without d i s r u p t i n g t h e c o n t i n u i t y of programs f o r t h e e d u c a t i o n o f t e a c h e r s . p- M a r g i n o f s a f e t y c o n s i s t i n g o f enough e l e m e n t a r y t e a c h e r s i n e x c e s s o f t h e number a c t u a l l y n e e d e d , t o c a r e f o r emergencies and u n f o r e s e e n developments and a l s o t o r e p l a c e i n c o m p e t e n t s when n e c e s s a r y . x- t h e demand, t o be c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h s e p a r a t e educational f i e l d . ^ A l l these elements,  they s a i d , are themselves  8. I b i d . , p . 2 2 7 - 2 2 8  variables,  20 most o f t h e m r a t h e r o r d e r l y v a r i a b l e s , a n d y e t many o f them c a n be e s t i m a t e d f o r a s p e c i f i c y e a r o r p e r i o d w i t h a u l a t i v e l y h i g h degree o f accuracy from e d u c a t i o n a l records w h i c h s h o u l d be m a i n t a i n e d As  i n s t a t e departments of education.  a c o n c l u s i o n t h e authors maintained  of teachers lowers t h e standards  that a  by a l l o w i n g poorly  teachers t o e n t e r t h e p r o f e s s i o n and an oversupply  shortage prepared i s equally  bad b y d e s t r o y i n g t h e m o r a l e o f t e a c h e r s b o t h e m p l o y e d a n d unemployed. q I n 1929-30 P r o f e s s o r H u f f a k e r ' c a r r i e d o u t a v e r y thorough  i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t e a c h e r s u p p l y a n d demand i n  Oregon. Through t h e o f f i c e s o f t h e Department o f E d u c a t i o n f o r O r e g o n he c i r c u l a r i z e d a l l t h e t e a c h e r s training institutions  and t e a c h e r  i n t h e s a t e a n d r e c e i v e d 95 p e r c e n t  returns t o h i s questionnaire.  Out o f 8 0 1 5 t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s  he l o c a t e d 1382 as new t e a c h e r s w h i c h r e p r e s e n t e d 17.2 p e r c e n t o f t h e t e a c h i n g b o d y . A n a d d i t i o n a l 1066 t e a c h e r s h a d c h a n g e d p o s i t i o n s r e p r e s e n t i n g a f u r t h e r 14 p e r c e n t . He c o m p a r e d h i s r e s u l t s w i t h t h o s e  o f D r . B. R. B u c k -  ingham f r o m O h i o f o r t h e y e a r 1923-24 a n d D r . F. L . W h i t n e y f o r Colorado  f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 2 6 - 2 7 , T h e i r e s t i m a t e s were 6 p e r  cent and 7 p e r cent  respectively.  P r o f e s s o r H u f f a k e r a l s o r e f e r r e d t o two n a t i o n a l s u r v e y s 9. C. L . H u f f a k e r , T e a c h e r S u p p l y a n d Demand i n O r e g o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f 0regon~7 P u b l i c a t i o n , V o l . 1 1 , No. 5. Eugene: U n i v e r s i t y o f Oregon ( J a n . 1 9 3 1 ) .  21 c a r r i e d out  i n 1924-25 w h i c h a t t e m p t e d  t h e number o f r e p l a c e m e n t s  to find,  roughly,  by s e c u r i n g estimates from the  o f f i c e s of the S t a t e Superintendents  f o r the various  states.  T h e i r r e s u l t s r a n g e d f r o m o r h i g h o f 47 p e r c e n t t o a o f 5 p e r c e n t . One  survey  estimated replacements Huffaker thought He through cases  this  a l s o attempted  The m e d i a n t e r m  f o r O r e g o n as 15 p e r c e n t . P r o f e s s o r estimate too  l o w e s t 1.8  t o m e a s u r e t h e n e e d f o r new  teachers  a p e r i o d o f 15  o f s e r v i c e f o r a l l t e a c h e r s was  2.9  years f o r s p e c i a l teachers  years.  years;  and  the  f o r one-room s c h o o l t e a c h e r s .  examination  of the r e l a t i o n  t o t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s  v e a l e d t h a t t h e r e were f i v e  of t h e s u p p l y of t e a c h -  i n T e n n e s s e e i n 1933-34 r e -  certificated  three p o s i t i o n s i n the elementary for  low.  hundred tenure reached  t h e h i g h e s t b e i n g 6.7  era  (the N a t i o n a l Education A s s o c i a t i o n )  a s t u d y o f t e a c h e r t e n u r e . He f o u n d t h a t i n s e v e n  o u t o f one  An  low  teachers f o r  s c h o o l s , and f i v e  e v e r y two p o s i t i o n s i n t h e h i g h s c h o o l s . T h i s  a very serious surplus.  The  however, t h a t i f s t a n d a r d s  every  teachers  indicated  other s i d e of the p i c t u r e  was,  i n Tennessee were r a i s e d t o a  d e f e n s i b l e l e v e l t h e r e a c t u a l l y w o u l d be  a shortage  of  teachers. The  procedure  certificates  i n T e n n e s s e e was  t o examine a l l t h e  of a l l k i n d s i n f o r c e , check o f f those  engaged  10. R h e y / B o y d P a r s o n s , " S t u d y o f t h e R e l a t i o n o f S u p p l y o f T e a c h e r s t o ' t h e Demand o f T e a c h e r s . " E l e m e n t a r y S c h o o l J o u r n a l , X X X V I , ( O c t o b e r , 1 9 3 5 ) , p p . 97-154"  22 i n t e a c h i n g and f i n d out f r o m t h e v a r i o u s  superintendents  ( c i t y a n d o t h e r s ) w h e t h e r t h o s e n o t a c t i v e were d e a d o r no l o n g e r d e s i r o u s o f t e a c h i n g . The n e t r e s u l t gave t h e s u p p l y o f t e a c h e r s . The demand c o n s i s t e d o f t h e t o t a l number o f positions. New J e r s e y , a p p a r e n t l y , i s t h e o n l y s t a t e w h i c h has d e l i b e r a t e l y s e t out t o balance  s u p p l y a n d demand. T h e r e have  b e e n q u i t e a number o f n a t i o n a l a n d s t a t e - w i d e  investigations  b u t no p r a c t i c a l o r c o n c r e t e a c t i o n h a s f o l l o w e d as a c o n s e q u e n c e . New J e r s e y , h o w e v e r , b e g a n i n 1927 t o c u r t a i l enrolment i n t h e Normal Schools in itself  and T e a c h e r s C o l l e g e s , w h i c h  i s n o t an u n u s u a l p r o c e d u r e .  The i m p o r t a n t  fact,  however, i s t h a t c o u p l e d w i t h t h i s t h e s t a t e a l s o began a c o n t i n u i n g s u r v e y o f t e a c h e r t u r n o v e r . Y e a r b y y e a r s i n c e 1927 t h e f o l l o w i n g d a t a have b e e n  collected:  (1) A n a c c u r a t e r e c o r d o f a l l g r a d u a t e s controlled teacher t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s y e a r , m a j o r s and t y p e s  from s t a t e  i n New J e r s e y , b y  of c e r t i f i c a t e s .  (2) A n a c c u r a t e r e c o r d o f a l l g r a d u a t e s  of p r i v a t e l y  c o n t r o l l e d c o l l e g e s i n New J e r s e y , l e g a l l y q u a l i f i e d t o t e a c h i n New  Jersey.  (3) An a c c u r a t e r e c o r d o f i n - s t a t e and o u t - o f - s t a t e p l a c e m e n t s f o r t h e s e two c l a s s e s o f i n s t i t u t i o n s . (4) An a c c u r a t e r e c o r d o f t e a c h i n g c e r t i f i c a t e s  ofa l l  1 1 . M. E r n e s t T o u s e n d , T e a c h e r s : " S u p p l y a n d Demand-Todays S i t u a t i o n a n d t h e P r o b l e m o f P r o d u c t i o n , " O c c u p a t i o n s , XIV, (October 1935), pp. 21-25.  23 kinds granted t o graduates ( I n New New  o f i n s t i t u t i o n s o u t s i d e New  Jersey c e r t i f i c a t e s  other than t o graduates  J e r s e y S t a t e , n o r m a l and  teachers  c o l l e g e s are  o n l y when t h e p e r s o n q u a l i f i e d a c t u a l l y has a teaching p o s i t i o n i n the  and t h e number p r e p a r e d ,  the s t a t e boundaries, Education  of granted  a contract f o r  state.)  Thus b y k n o w i n g t h e number and t y p e s p l a c e d each year  Jersey.  o f new  teachers  at l e a s t w i t h i n  i t i s p o s s i b l e f o r the Department of  u n d e r whose a u t h o r i t y t h i s w o r k i s c a r r i e d out  determine whether the supply i s b e i n g maintained  to  or i s i n  excess. The  c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t t h e r e a r e a number o f v a r i a b l e s ,  h o w e v e r , w h i c h s u c h p r e d i c t i v e p r o c e d u r e s do n o t a n d p r o v i d e f o r i n any  s h o r t p e r i o d o f t i m e . Some o f t h e s e  a p p a r e n t l y i m p o s s i b l e of s u c c e s s f u l p r e d i c t i o n w h i l e are capable  of  cannot are  others  control.  Some o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e a r e : ( 1 ) E c o n o m i s c o n d i t i o n s : The  depression r e s u l t e d i n a  d i m i n u t i o n o f f u n d s w h i c h meant a c u r t a i l m e n t o f t h e Vacancies  were l e f t u n f i l l e d by  i n c r e a s i n g t h e s i z e of  c l a s s e s . Normal development i n newer areas were a b a n d o n e d . R e t i r e m e n t s t e a c h e r s who the  had  program.  were d e l a y e d .  the  s l o w e d down o r Certificated  l e f t f o r better things returned to increase  supply. Rapid economic expansion  mand f o r t e a c h e r s  l e a d s t o an e x t r a o r d i n a r y de-  f o r the converse  reasons.  ( 2 ) What c o m p r i s e s an optimum s c h o o l p r o g r a m ? e.g.  New  24 J e r s e y with- a p o p u l a t i o n o f 4,042,000 " n e e d s " 28,000 t e a c h e r s , a n e i g h b o r i n g s t a t e w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f 1,632,000 n e e d s , 3 , 3 0 0 t e a c h e r s . Thus t h e n e e d s d e p e n d u p o n t h e v a l u e t h e s t a t e attaches t o ( 3 ) The  education. t i m e t h a t e l a p s e s between t h e p r e d i c t i o n of need  and t h e p r o v i s i o n o f r e c r u i t s t o s a t i s f y t h a t n e e d . I f i t r e q u i r e s one  o r two  years of p r e p a r a t i o n then the  n e e d o n l y be  c o r r e c t e d f o r one  p e r i o d of p r e p a r a t i o n the l e s s  o r two y e a r s . The  estimate longer  s i g n i f i c a n t does t h e  the  prediction  become. (4) The  extent of the f i e l d — t h e  I n t r o d u c t i o n of a pre-  k i n d e r g a r t e n o r e x t e n s i o n o f t h e k i n d e r g a r t e n f i e l d makes i t i m p e r a t i v e t h a t one ed f o r t h e new In  s h o u l d know t h e number o f t e a c h e r s  prepar-  work a n d t h e number t h a t w i l l be r e q u i r e d .  c l o s i n g T o w s e n d made t h e f o l l o w i n g r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s :  (1) T e a c h i n g s h o u l d be a r i g h t and  c o n s i d e r e d a p r i v i l e g e and  therefore the s t a t e should enforce  not  selective  admission. (2) I n a f o u r - y e a r t e a c h e r ' s e o l l e g e c o u r s e a d m i t 10  per  c e n t more f r e s h m e n i n e a c h m a j o r s u b j e c t t h a n w e r e p l a c e d during the previous twelve-month p e r i o d . e m e r g e n c i e s , d i s m i s s a l s , w i t h d r a w a l s , and of t h e market f o u r y e a r s  This provides f o r underestimation  hence.  (3) D i s c o n t i n u e t h e p o l i c y o f p e r m a n e n t  certification  b e c a u s e t e a c h e r s t e n d t o become o b s o l e t e i n t h e i r methods and  i d e a s u n l e s s c o m p e l l e d t o k e e p up t o d a t e a n d  t h e number who  furthermore  come b a c k d u r i n g a d e p r e s s i o n r e t u r n t o p l a g u e  26 your  predictions. (4) And  l a s t l y one must c o n s t a n t l y c a n v a s s e d u c a t i o n a l  t r e n d and p o s s i b l e new  d e v e l o p m e n t s and  o f demand by a g r a d u a l e x p a n s i o n  o f new  a n t i c i p a t e new  areas  service training  facilities. C a l i f o r n i a has  a l a r g e s u r p l u s of t r a i n e d  principals  a c c o r d i n g t o a r e p o r t b y A n d e r s o n and Rhode. S l i g h t l y more t h a n 2,000 h o l d v a l i d s e c o n d a r y  school administrative  c r e d e n t i a l s . As t h e r e a r e l e s s t h a n 400  high school p r i n c i p a l -  s h i p s i n t h e s t a t e t h i s means t h a t t h e r e a r e f o u r h i g h l y trained principals  otherwise  During the l a s t ten years e i g h t new one  o c c u p i e d f o r e a c h one  employed.  s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n an a v e r a g e o f  h i g h s c h o o l s opened e a c h y e a r w h i l e e a c h y e a r  c l o s e d . The  demand c o n s i s t s t h e r e f o r e o f s e v e n new  s c h o o l p r i n c i p a l s p l u s an a v e r a g e o f f o r t y - t w o who p r o f e s s i o n y e a r l y . I n a s i n g l e y e a r one  saw high  have t h e  u n i v e r s i t y alone  pre-  p a r e d 65 f o r c e r t i f i c a t i o n . Whether a n y t h i n g s u b s e q u e n t l y  has been- done t o  rectify  t h i s s i t u a t i o n the study i l l u s t r a t e s v e r y f o r c i b l y the wastef u l n e s s o f u n r e s t r i c t e d c o m p e t i t i o n . I f no f u r t h e r c e r t i f i c a t e s were i s s u e d i t w o u l d t a k e 30 y e a r s t o u t i l i z e t h e s i x t e e n hundred q u a l i f i e d p r i n c i p a l s  at the apparent  r a t e of  p e r annum. S e r i o u s c o n s e q u e n c e s c o u l d h a r d l y r e s u l t t h i s p a r t i c u l a r form of  fifty from  over-production.  12. Dewey A n d e r s o n and E l l i s G. Rhode, " T r o u b l e s o m e S i t u a t i o n i n C a l i f o r n i a . " Nation's Schools , X V I I , ( F e b r u a r y , 1 9 3 6 ) , p p . 34-35  26 Grant  and  C o w l y have d e v i s e d a t e c h n i q u e f o r a n a l y z i n g  t h e s u p p l y and demand f o r e d u c a t i o n a l w o r k e r s .  I t s purpose  i s t o show t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s u p p l y and demand f o r e a c h t y p e o f t e a c h e r i n t u r n s o f some c o n v e n i e n t e x t e n t I t has how  can  one  Type o f Work  Mathematics 165 teachers Primary Specialist 79  Per cent of T o t a l  ,165„_,  10.V%  302  4.9$  f a l l i n g behind  c a n n o t b u t be  worst years  i t s operation:  Demand P e r c e n t S u p p l y and o f T o t a l Demand Ratio i n Per cent 13.9<£  44  an e x t e n d e d t a b l e one  s u p p l y was One  t h e s u p p l y o r t h e demand i s b l i t h e l y  following table illustrates  Supply  With  that  some m e r i t b u t t h e f a r more s e r i o u s p r o b l e m o f  determine  i g n o r e d . The  i n d e x . To  2.0#  impressed  K)  &3T^  ,  nn  v  '  79 l^xlOO)  179.5#  i n excess.  by t h e f a c t t h a t d u r i n g  o f t h e d e p r e s s i o n most a r t i c l e s  of a  and  were s o u n d e d . V a r i o u s  i n d i c a t e d that a higher percentage  the  general  demand d e p l o r e d t h e  of l a r g e numbers o f u n e m p l o y e d t e a c h e r s . I n 1935 h o w e v e r , more o p t i m i s t i c n o t e s  Ky  c o u l d s e e a t a g l a n c e when t h e  and where i t was  n a t u r e p e r t a i n i n g t o s u p p l y and  54.6#  existence 1936 reports  of e d u c a t i o n graduates  IH-  were  1 3 . A. G r a n t and W. H. C o w l e y , " T e c h n i q u e f o r A n a l y z i n g t h e S u p p l y and Demand f o r E d u c a t i o n a l W o r k e r s . " S c h o o l and S o c i e t y , X X I X , (May 1 1 , 1 9 2 9 , p p . 6 1 8 - 6 2 0 . 14. ' J . E. U m s t a t t e l , " I m p r o v e d O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r T e a c h e r s - E d u c a t i o n G r a d u a t e s " . E d u c a t i o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and S u p e r i n t e n d e n c e X X I I , (November, 1 9 3 6 ) , p p . 6X9^621-  27 b e i n g p l a c e d i n 1934-35 t h a n i n 1933-34 and t h a t s a l a r i e s were improving. Of i n t e r e s t t o a l l t e a c h e r s i s a r e p o r t o f t h e d e c l i n e i n •  IS  school p o p u l a t i o n i n the United S t a t e s . According t o t h i s r e p o r t e d u c a t i o n i s a $3,000,000,000 a y e a r i n d u s t r y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d e m p l o y s t h e t i m e o f one q u a r t e r o f t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e . T h e r e now of  c h i l d r e a . The  a p p e a r s a r e d u c t i o n i n t h e number  c i t y o f C h i c a g o has f e w e r c h i l d r e n now  t h e f i r s t g r a d e t h a n t h e r e were i n 1900  a l t h o u g h the  in  city  has d o u b l e d i n s i z e . T h r o u g h o u t t h e w h o l e c o u n t r y t h e r e  will  be 1,000,000 f e w e r c h i l d r e n o f e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l age  1940  t h a n i n 1930. M o r e s t u d e n t s were g r a d u a t e d f r o m t h e s c h o o l i n 1935  in  elementary  t h a n e v e r b e f o r e o r e v e r a g a i n . T h e s e changes  i n t h e t r e n d o f s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n w i l l n o t o c c u r a t t h e same time i n a l l s e c t i o n s . They w i l l b i r t h - r a t e , g e n e r a l l y sooner  come f i r s t  i n areas of lowest  i n c i t y regions than i n r u r a l  areas and e a r l i e r i n t h e west and n o r t h t h a n i n t h e s o u t h . Prom an o c c u p a t i o n a l s t a n d p o i n t i t i s b e c o m i n g more d i f f i c u l t f o r women t h a n f o r men are  relatively  t o secure p o s i t i o n s .  g e n e r a l l y r e p l a c i n g women. T h e r e i s now  an o v e r s u p p l y o f  t e a c h e r s t r a i n e d i n t h e s t a n d a r d s u b j e c t s whereas i n a few t h e new  fields  s u c h as v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g , a g r i c u l t u r e ,  remedial r e a d i n g , o p p o r t u n i t i e s are How  Men  of  and  excellent.  a c c u r a t e t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s may  be one  can o n l y guess.  1 5 . " O c c u p a t i o n a l O u t l o o k f o r E l e m e n t a r y S c h o o l Teachers'.' E l e m e n t a r y S c h o o l J o u r n a l , X X X I X , (December, 1938) p.250  28 A t l e a s t t h e -census o f 1940 w i l l  e s t a b l i s h f o r the time being  the t r u t h or otherwise of the statement t h a t the elementary s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n i s d e f i n i t e l y on t h e down t r e n d . I n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i t has r e m a i n e d r e l a t i v e l y c o n s t a n t f o r t h e l a s t n i n e y e a r s though c e r t a i n communities have s u f f e r e d a d e c l i n e . F i n a l l y b e f o r e t h i s b r i e f summary o f some o f t h e A m e r i c a n i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i s b r o u g h t t o a c l o s e i t m i g h t be w o r t h w h i l e f o r t h e sake of comparison t o c o n s i d e r l a b o r t u r n o v e r i n other f i e l d s  o f employment. U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e i d e a o f t u r n o v e r  i n v o l v e s b o t h t h e i d e a o f r e p l a c e m e n t s and e x c h a n g e s .  In the  more s t a b l e i n d u s t r i e s h o w e v e r , t u r n o v e r must a p p r o x i m a t e replacements s i n c e exchanges  c o u l d be r e d u c e d t o a minimum.  The f o r m u l a recommended b y t h e U. S. D e p a r t m e n t o f L a b o r  and  t h e N a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n o f Employment M a n a g e r s i s t h i s :  "to  compute t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f l a b o r t u r n o v e r f o r a n y p e r i o d ,  find  the t o t a l s e p a r a t i o n s  (all  q u i t s , d i s c h a r g e s and l a y o f f s f o r  any r e a s o n w h a t s o e v e r ) f o r t h e p e r i o d c o n s i d e r e d and d i v i d e  by  t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e number a c t u a l l y w o r k i n g e a c h day t h r o u g h o u t the p e r i o d . Then m u l t i p l y t h e p r o p e r f a c t o r t o reduce t o a yearly  basis."  The U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o i n a s t u d y o f t u r n o v e r r a t e s i n  16. P a u l H. D o u g l a s , " L a b o r T u r n o v e r . " Encyclopaedia of S o c i a l Sources, Macmlllan, V I I I , p p . 709-713  (1932)  29 various occupations  i n a l a r g e m i d d l e w e s t e r n r a i l r o a d i n 1920  d i s c o v e r e d a v a r i a t i o n o f b e t w e e n 1 9 $ f o r t e l e g r a p h e r s and n e a r l y 1 7 0 0 $ f o r f r e i g h t s t a t i o n l a b o r e r s .'^ i n 1913-14 t h e B u r e a u o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s i n v e s t i g a t e d the t u r n o v e r per  i n v a r i o u s p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s . The r e s u l t s were 15  c e n t f o r g a s and e l e c t r i c c o m p a n i e s , 27 p e r c e n t f o r  s t r e e t r a i l w a y s a n d 39 p e r c e n t f o r t e l e p h o n e  s e r v i c e . These  r a t e s i n c r e a s e d d u r i n g t h e war. I n t h e government s e r v i c e t h e t u r n o v e r low.  i s particularly  I n 1917-19 when s a l a r i e s w e r e l a g g i n g b e h i n d  living,  the turnover  t h e cost of  d i d n o t e x c e e d 40 p e r c e n t . R e c e n t I n -  v e s t i g a t i o n s by Brissenden  f o rthe e n t i r e Federal  i n 1927-28 showed an a v e r a g e a n n u a l t u r n o v e r  service  o f 19 p e r c e n t  w h i l e i n t h e d e p a r t m e n t a l s e r v i c e a t W a s h i n g t o n D. C. t h e a v e r a g e was o n l y 8 p e r c e n t . In general  i n d u s t r i e s and o c c u p a t i o n s  where t h e p r i n c i p l e  o f s e n i o r i t y i s commonly f o l l o w e d f o r b o t h p r o m o t i o n s a n d l a y o f f s t e n d t o have a t u r n o v e r  r a t e d e c i d e d l y below average.  This  I s a l s o m e a s u r a b l y t r u e among o r g a n i z e d w o r k e r s where  union  r u l e s s u c h as t h e p r i o r i t y s y s t e m a n d l i m i t a t i o n o f  employers r i g h t s t o discharge labor turnover. B.  I n Canada. 17. 18. 19. 20.  Ibid. Ibid. Ibid. Ibid.  ^°  tend t o reduce  considerable  30 The brochure In t h i s  D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s p u b l i s h e d i n 1937  a  on s u p p l y and demand i n t h e p r o f e s s i o n s i n C a n a d a . a p p e a r s a d i s c u s s i o n on t h e o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n s c h o o l  teaching from the viewpoint  o f Canada as a w h o l e . The  follow-  i n g i s a statement of the f i n d i n g s which because of i t s b r e v i t y and t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e a r e a p p a r e n t l y no o t h e r s t u d i e s i n Canada i s b e i n g p r e s e n t e d f o r t h e s e c t i o n on  i n i t s entirety  such  except  salaries.  "One o f t h e g r e a t e s t g r o w t h s i n u n i v e r s i t y work s i n c e 1920 has b e e n i n t h e f i e l d o f t e a c h e r - t r a i n i n g . I t i s n o t new t e a c h i n g so much as a t r a n s f e r o f work f r o m n o r m a l s c h o o l t o u n i v e r s i t y . A P a l c u l t y o f E d u c a t i o n has b e e n e s t a b l i s h e d i n e a c h o f t h e w e s t e r n p r o v i n c i a l u n i v e r s i t i e s s i n c e 1920, w h i l e i n Quebec and t h e M a r i t i m e s the. u n i v e r s i t y work i n e d u c a t i o n has b e e n e x t e n d e d , w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t a y e a r o f p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g i n a u n i v e r s i t y i s now t h e r u l e f o r h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s t h r o u g h o u t C a n a d a . A b o u t 600 t o 800 p e r y e a r t a k e t h e c o u r s e , and a g o o d d e a l o f f u r t h e r work i s done i n t h e F a c u l t i e s o r C o l l e g e s o f E d u c a t i o n , as i s i n d i c a t e d by 100 b a c h e l o r ' s d e g r e e s i n P e d o g o g y o r E d u c a t i o n l a s t year." "The t r e n d t o t e a c h e r - t r a i n i n g i n t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s has b e e n e v e n more p r o n o u n c e d t h a n i t a p p e a r s f r o m a b a r e r e c o r d of p e r s o n s r e c e i v i n g c e r t i f i c a t e s f o r the u n i v e r s i t y c o u r s e s , b e c a u s e w h i l e t h i s has i n c r e a s e d t h e r e has b e e n a d e c l i n e i n t h e t o t a l number o f new c e r t i f i c a t e s i s s u e d . The summary h e r e u n d e r i s a r r a n g e d t o s l o w t h e change i n t h i s r e s p e c t . C e r t i f i c a t e s f o r u n i v e r s i t y c o u r s e s h a v e , i n f a c t , become so numerous t h a t i n most o f t h e p r o v i n c e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e number o f t h e h o l d e r s have b e e n u n a b l e t o f i n d t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s i n t h e h i g h s c h o o l s and h a v e t a k e n p l a c e s i n t h e e l e m e n t a r y schools."  2 1 . S u p p l y and Demand i n t h e P r o f e s s i o n i n Canada, o p . c l t .  31 Year  New t e a c h e r s trained i n normal schools  1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935  Hew t e a c h e r s trained i n university-  7,766 8,104 7,506 6,867 7,742 5,738 6,141 6,920 6,405 6,613 5,475 5,315  346 344 373 450 438 501 523 581 744 807 810 649  T o t a l new teachers trained. 8,112 8,448 7,879 7,317 8,180 6,239 6,664 7,501 7,149 7,420 6,285 5,964  " I n s p i t e o f t h e d e c r e a s e i n t h e numbers o f t e a c h e r s t r a i n e d t h e r e has b e e n a s u r p l u s o f c e r t i f i c a t e d t e a c h e r s a c c u m u l a t i n g f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s , a n d i t seems d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r t h e r e d u c e d numbers a r e - y e t l o w enough t o c e a s e c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e s u r p l u s . I n t h r e e p r o v i n c e s where t h e r e d u c t i o n i n numbers t r a i n i n g has b e e n g r e a t e s t t h e r e were 1,492 t e a c h e r s c e r t i f i c a t e d i n J u n e , 1 9 3 5 , a n d o n l y 1,313 new t e a c h e r s placed i n the ensuing school year," "The s i t u a t i o n has p r o b a b l y b e e n c r e a t e d I n t h e m a i n b y t h e s c a r c i t y o f o t h e r o p e n i n g s f o r employment i n t h e d e p r e s s i o n y e a r s . F e w e r g i r l s have l e f t t e a c h i n g f o r o t h e r p o s i t i o n s , o r t o be m a r r i e d , and f o r m e r t e a c h e r s h a v e come b a c k t o t h e p r o f e s s i o n a f t e r s p e n d i n g some t i m e a t o t h e r w o r k . T h i s i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e m a l e and f e m a l e p r o p o r t i o n s o f t e a c h e r s ; i n t h e l a s t f o u r y e a r s men t e a c h e r s have i n c r e a s e d a b o u t 3,500 w h i l e t h e number o f women t e a c h e r s has b e e n r e d u c e d b y 8 0 0 . " " T h e r e i s a n o t h e r f a c t o r on t h e s i d e o f demand. The c h i l d p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y has f o r some y e a r s c e a s e d t o i n c r e a s e . T h e r e a r e f e w e r c h i l d r e n u n d e r t h e age o f t e n t h a n i n t h e next o l d e r t e n y e a r group, 10-19. I t i s o n l y l e n g t h e n e d s c h o o l i n g , a n d a t e n d e n c y i n some p l a c e s t o s m a l l e r c l a s s e s , t h a t has c a u s e d t h e number o f t e a c h e r s t o c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e . I n t h e v i s i b l e f u t u r e t h e r e a r e l i k e l y t o be f e w more t h a n enough n e w l y - t r a i n e d t e a c h e r s f o r r e p l a c e m e n t of t h o s e r e s i g n i n g f r o m t h e p r o f e s s i o n a r e l i k e l y t o be required." In concluding t h i s the median y e a r s  s e c t i o n , i t I s o f i n t e r e s t t o compare  of experience  y e a r , midsummer 1936 f o r f i v e  as a t t h e end o f t h e s c h o o l o f t h e p r o v i n c e s . No d a t a i s  g i v e n f o r Nova S c o t i a , Quebec, O n t a r i o o r A l b e r t a . M a n i t o b a  appears  t o rank highest i n p o i n t of years of s e r v i c e of her  teachers although t h e r e i s a remarkable  u n i f o r m i t y throughout.  E a c h p r o v i n c e e x p e r i e n c e s t h e same d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n s c h o o l s i n d i f f e r e n t types of communities.  The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e p r e -  pared by t h e Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s  g i v e s t h e median  years of experience of a l lteachers w i t h i n the r e s p e c t i v e p r o v i n c i a l b o r d e r s b y s e x a n d t y p e o f c o m m u n i t y . Town o r villages ities  schools correspond t o schools i n d i s t r i c t municipal-  i nBritish  Sex  Columbia.  Prince Edward Island  New Brunswick  IT  M  T  p  Manltoba P  T M  Saskat? chewan  T  M  P  T  British Columbia M  T \  City  Town a n d Co Village Kural schools (2 o r more 5~>C J 1 R u r a l Schools (1 room)  r-o  /o-O  C-o  r-o .6  -t t / i 1.HIM  •¥-•0  M« m a l e s 0. I n v e s t i g a t i o n s  /y..o  /3-C  S c h o o l s >f-c>  F  /J*  a  /o-c  ~//-t  ? ' *  ?  ~ r-o C-o  r° 7'°  4-0 f.d  Fafemale  T=total  Elsewhere.  A f a i r l y thorough  s e a r c h f a i l e d t o r e v e a l e v e n s o much  as a h i n t t h a t s u c h i n v e s t i g a t i o n s h a v e b e e n c a r r i e d on i n  22. " S a l a r i e s and Q u a l i f i c a t i o n s o f Canadian Teachers, pp.2-3, Ottawa, Dominion B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , " 1937.  53 B r i t a i n , t h e . o t h e r Dominions or i n f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s .  Two  s m a l l r e f e r e n c e s , h o w e v e r , a p p e a r e d i n t h e Time E d u c a t i o n a l S u p p l e m e n t . I n 1930 teachers  t h e r e seemed t o be  a l a c k of  i n E n g l a n d and W a l e s . I n 1936,  expressed  though, concern  a t t h e number o f u n e m p l o y e d t e a c h e r s  and t h e o p i n i o n g i v e n t h a t t h e r e s h o u l d be s u p p l y and The  certificated was  i n England  c l o s e r c o n t r o l of  demand.  r e a s o n s f o r t h i s a p p a r e n t l a c k of c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f  t h e p r o b l e m o f s u p p l y and demand a r e p r o b a b l y t w o - f o l d .  First,  t h e r e i s t h e n a t i o n a l t e n d e n c y t o eschew a l l f o r m s o f p u b l i c probings  a f t e r t h e m a n n e r o f t h e A m e r i c a n s , and,  second,  the  f a c t t h a t t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l s y s t e m s b e i n g much more c l o s e l y k n i t and  c e n t r a l i z e d have not been s u b j e c t t o s u c h  excesses  and means o f c o n t r o l have b e e n much more e a s i l y a p p l i e d without  recourse  to extensive p r i o r  In c o n c l u d i n g t h i s order. F i r s t ,  one  examinations.  c h a p t e r c e r t a i n comments seem i n  i s s t r u c k by t h e m u l t i p l i c i t y of  such  i n v e s t i g a t i o n s t h a t have b e e n u n d e r t a k e n i n t h e U n i t e d i n the l a s t  15 o r 16 y e a r s .  S e c o n d , one  i s d i smayed b y  wide range of r e s u l t s s e c u r e d by t h e s e d i f f e r e n t This i s probably  due  States the  investigators.  t o at l e a s t three f a c t o r s — ( 1 ) differences  i n g e o g r a p h i c a l regions under examination economic c o n d i t i o n s - - s o m e  (2) d i f f e r e n c e s i n  i n good y e a r s , o t h e r i n bad  and  (3)  2 3 . " L a c k o f T e a c h e r s i n E n g l a n d and Wales ( C e r t i f i c a t e d ) Times E d u c a t i o n a l S u p p l e m e n t , 783 (May 3, 1930) p.199 24. "Unemployed T e a c h e r s i n E n g l a n d . " Times E d u c a t i o n a l S u p p l e m e n t , 1087, ( F e b . 29,1936) p.77  34 d i f f e r e n c e s * i n techinque--some remarkably others l i t t l e b e t t e r than guesses*  r e f i n e d and a c c u r a t e ;  Third, there are the  extremes o f p r e d i c t i v e t e c h n i q u e , from t h e e l a b o r a t e  formula  t o t h e s i m p l e a n d s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d i n us© i n New J e r s e y . I t w o u l d seem t h a t B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a c o u l d w e l l e m p l o y some scheme somewhat b e t w e e n t h e s e two I n c o m p l e x i t y .  Fourth,  the extremely  i n Oregon  low medians f o r years o f e x p e r i e n c e  a r e v e r y s u r p r i s i n g . Whether B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s were as l o w i n 1930 w o u l d be i n t e r e s t i n g t o know; i t seems r a t h e r d o u b t f u l . F i f t h , t h e f a c t t h a t o n l y one s t a t e - N e w J e r s e y - has mad© a n y concrete attempt  t o apply the r e s u l t s of the i n v e s t i g a t o r s ,  a f t e r a l l t h e s e y e a r s , i s v e r y s t r a n g e . And, s i x t h , t h e r a t e of t u r n o v e r i n Ohio, C o l o r a d o  and i n t h e d e p a r t m e n t a l  a t W a s h i n g t o n , D. C., c o r r e s p o n d results per  of t h i s  cent.)  almost  offices  e x a c t l y with the  study f o r B r i t i s h Columbia, (approximately  l\  CHAPTER TIT F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g t h e Demand f o r T e a c h e r s — A Q u a l i t a t i v e Analys i s . A. T o t a l S c h o o l The  P o p u l a t i o n as i t i s A f f e c t e d b y V a r i o u s  demand f o r t e a c h e r s  while apparently being a  m e a s u r a b l e phenomenon i s i n a c t u a l i t y a d e c i d e d l y  Factors simple  fluctuating  q u a n t i t y w h i c h i s i n t u r n t h e c o m p o s i t e o f a number o f elemental  1  v a r i a b l e s . F o r t u n a t e l y t h e p r o g r e s s i v e changes i n  many o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s o c c u r w i t h some d e g r e e o f r e g u l a r i t y . This permits  one t o f o r e c a s t t h e f u t u r e demands w i t h  degree of r e l i a b i l i t y . three or f o u r years  some  T h e e s t i m a t i o n o f demand o n e , t w o ,  h e n c e becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y more d e p e n d -  able the fewer the f a c t o r s that remain u n p r e d i c t a b l e . I t must n e v e r t h e l e s s b e remembered t h a t h o w e v e r r e f i n e d one's a n a l y s i s may be p r e d i c t i o n i s s t i l l accuracy  an e s t i m a t e .  Absolute  c a n n e v e r be e x p e c t e d b u t a n a p p r a i s a l o f t h e f u t u r e  b a s e d on a c a r e f u l s t u d y  o f a l l t h e f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d and  a l t e r e d f r o m t i m e t o t i m e as c h a n g i n g c o n d i t i o n s r e q u i r e c e r t a i n l y prevent age  of teachers  the occurrence  will  of a l a r g e surplus or short-  s u c h as has a r i s e n on v a r i o u s o c c a s i o n s i n  t h e p a s t , when t h e b a l a n c e  has b e e n l e f t  t o work I t s e l f out  unguided. One o f t h e p r i m e f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g t h e demand f o r teachers  i s t h e number o f c h i l d r e n a t t e n d i n g s c h o o l .  Obvious-  l y t h e r e i s a v e r y c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e number o f p u p i l s a n d t h e number o f t e a c h e r s . However t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p is not absolute.  C e r t a i n wealthy communities f e e l t h a t t o  teach adequately is  t h e i r c h i l d r e n a g i v e n number o f  teachers  r e q u i r e d . A n o t h e r c o m m u n i t y o f t h e same s i z e m i g h t  s a t i s f i e d w i t h h a l f t h a t number o f t e a c h e r s . I n t h e  be  course  of t i m e , however, the s t a n d a r d o f e d u c a t i o n which i s a c c e p t a b l e t o each s e c t i o n of the c o u n t r y tends In ing  t o become f i x e d ? o r  o t h e r words t h e number o f p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r , w h i l e v a r y f r o m one  a r e a o r c o m m u n i t y t o a n o t h e r , becomes r a t h e r  d e f i n i t e l y s t a b i l i z e d i n any  g i v e n community. Thus, I n  s t u d y i n g t h e d a t a f o r the P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia, w h i l e the past  has  witnessed a decided increase i n the r a t i o  t e a c h e r s t o p u p i l s , t h e l a s t f e w y e a r s have s e e n b u t c h a n g e , and  i n d i c a t i o n t h a t a more o r l e s s a c c e p t e d  has b e e n a c h i e v e d .  The  would p r o b a b l y not  little standard  fact that educational authority i s  r a t h e r s t r o n g l y c e n t r a l i z e d has u n i f o r m i t y throughout  of  tended  t o produce c o n s i d e r a b l e  B r i t i s h Columbia, a c o n d i t i o n which  otherwise e x i s t . For these reasons  possible to concentrate  i t is  o u r a t t e n t i o n more f u l l y u p o n t h e  t o t a l s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n knowing t h a t f o r t h i s p r o v i n c e lease the p u p i l - t e a c h e r r a t i o i s remarkably Having  at  constant.  assumed a c e r t a i n t e a c h e r - p u p i l r a t i o , we  must  now  c o n s i d e r how  v a r i o u s f a c t o r s a f f e c t the school p o p u l a t i o n .  One  of the f i r s t  of these  i n importance  i s total population.  F r o m an e x a m i n a t i o n  of the t r e n d s of p o p u l a t i o n changes  valuable deductions  c a n be d r a w n as t o t h e p r o b a b l e  of the s c h o o l M o s t new which at f i r s t  course  enrolment. c o u n t r i e s go t h r o u g h  a c y c l e of development i n  t h e r e i s a v e r y s m a l l r a t i o of c h i l d r e n  to  37 a d u l t s , a n d l a t e r a p e r i o d when t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f c h i l d r e n i s g r e a t e r than normal. These r e p r e s e n t e x p l o r a t i o n and o f r a p i d e x p a n s i o n .  the eras  of early-  L a t e r comes t h e p e r i o d  when f u r t h e r g r o w t h seems s l o w a n d d i f f i c u l t a n d t h e n e e d f o r new hands d i m i n i s h e s . T h i s s t a g e i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y a ing  fall-  o f f I n the r a t i o of c h i l d r e n t o population. I t i s  necessary,  t h e , when u t i l i z i n g t h e c h a n g e s I n p o p u l a t i o n t o  determine school attendance  t o c o n s i d e r n o t o n l y t h e amount  o f t h e change b u t a l s o t h e s t a g e The  trends  o f development.  of population, being  minor disturbances  less susceptible to  a n d b e i n g more c o n s t a n t  i n direction,  s e r v e t o dampen t h e f l u c t u a t i o n s f o u n d i n o t h e r m e a s u r e s o f human change a n d p e r m i t  statistical  a more e x t e n d e d p r o j e c t i o n  i n t o t h e f u t u r e a n d t h u s become a v e r y v a l u a b l e a d j u n c t t o any m e t h o d o f e s t i m a t i n g t h e f u t u r e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n . In  a mature and s t a b l e s o c i e t y a v e r y u s e f u l index o f  f u t u r e demands i s t h e b i r t h r a t e o r t h e number o f b i r t h s . The b i r t h r a t e has g r e a t e r s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r t h e more r e m o t e f u t u r e , t h e number o f b i r t h s f o r t h e a c t u a l demand. F o r e x a m p l e , i f i n 1938 t h e r e w e r e 12,000 b i r t h s , t h e n b a r r i n g d e a t h s a n d interprovlncial shifts  i n p o p u l a t i o n we know how many p u p i l s  w i l l e n t e r t h e s c h o o l s y s t e m I n 1 9 4 4 . As a t p r e s e n t there are twelve years  arranged  grades p l u s s e n i o r m a t r i c u l a t i o n . Successive  s e e t h e c h i l d r e n l e s s t h o s e who a r e r e t a r d e d o r d r o p  out move up one g r a d e . S i n c e t h e r a t e o f r e t a r d a t i o n s a n d l o s s e s a l o n g t h e way a r e r e a s o n a b l y it  uniform from year t o year  i s p o s s i b l e t o f i n d the school population w i t h a remarkable  38 degree of a c c u r a c y f o r f i v e or s i x years i n advance. procedure  w o u l d be somewhat as  follows:  ( a ) To e s t i m a t e t h e e n r o l m e n t enrolment  for  f o r 1941  consider the  1940;  (b) To f i n d t h e a t t e n d a n c e  f o r Grade I add t o t h e  number o f b i r t h s o f 6 y e a r s p r e v i o u s ( 1 9 3 5 ) t h e  calculated  number o f r e t a r d a t i o n s , and s u b t r a c t t h e number o f (c)  The  deaths.  To f i n d t h e numbers i n G r a d e I I t a k e t h e G r a d e I  enrolment  f o r 1940,  s u b t r a c t t h e r e t a r d a t i o n s and l o s s e s  f r o m i t and a d d t o i t t h e f a i l u r e s f r o m t h e Grade I I o f (d) And  so f o r each  1940;  grade.  H a v i n g done t h i s i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e x t e n d t h e r e s u l t s t o and so on t i l l e a c h new  1945  year r o l l s  throughout  b y a r e p e t i t i o n o f t h e same m e t h o d . As around  i n the l i g h t  ed f o r a n o t h e r  t h e e s t i m a t e s s h a l l be  of the l a t e s t  revised  i n f o r m a t i o n , and  extend-  year.  Some w r i t e r s h a v e s u g g e s t e d  t h a t t h e demand s h a l l  be  known f o r t e n y e a r s a h e a d t o p e r m i t e f f e c t i v e t r a i n i n g  of  p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s . W h e t h e r r e l i a b l e r e s u l t s c a n be for  1942  secured  s u c h a l o n g p e r i o d i s o p e n t o q u e s t i o n b u t i t w o u l d seem  t h a t s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s c a n be  obtained f o r a  p e r i o d of 5 or 6 y e a r s . I m m i g r a t i o n and e m i g r a t i o n a r e v a r i a b l e s w h i c h difficult  b o t h t o m e a s u r e and t o r e d u c e  are  t o any d e g r e e of  r e g u l a r change. I n t e r p r o v i n c i a l s h i f t s of p o p u l a t i o n can occur w i t h o u t becoming a m a t t e r number o f i m m i g r a n t s  of r e c o r d . Furthermore  f o r t h e whole of Canada f l u c t u a t e  the from  39 year t o year without t r e n d . I t may kept, but  be  i t b e i n g p o s s i b l e t o f i n d any  t h a t i n the f u t u r e b e t t e r records w i l l  at p r e s e n t s u c h gaps e x i s t . reported  t h e r e i s now  underlying  So s e r i o u s i s t h i s  a ^ d i f f e r e n c e of about 40,000 i n t h e  And  so w h i l e not w i t h o u t  that  estimates  o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a as d e t e r m i n e d b y d i f f e r e n t departments.  be  two  significance  t h i s p a r t i c u l a r f a c t o r remains w h o l l y u n p r e d i c t a b l e . L e n g t h of s c h o o l i n g - - e x c l u d i n g c e r t a i n i r r e g u l a r v a r i a b l e s s u c h as i m m i g r a t i o n  o r e m i g r a t i o n - - a l s o becomes a v e r y  ant f a c t o r i n a r r i v i n g a t t h e p r o b a b l e  future school  import-  attend-  a n c e . F o r e x a m p l e i f t h e number o f b i r t h s were c o n s t a n t a p e r i o d of years  c e r t a i n deductions  c o u l d be made as f o l l o w s ;  ( a ) I f a l l t h e p u p i l s , a g a i n b a r r i n g d e a t h s and stayed f o r eight years  for  removals,  the t o t a l s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n would  be  ( t a k i n g 12,000 b i r t h s p e r y e a r ) 96,000 p u p i l s . (b) I f h o w e v e r a l l t h e p u p i l s s t a y e d f o r t w e l v e the s c h o o l attendance ( c ) I f we  w o u l d be  years  144,000.  t a k e f o r c o n v e n i e n c e an a v e r a g e o f 30 p u p i l s  per t e a c h e r , each a d d i t i o n a l year these p u p i l s s t a y at g i v e s employment t o 400  more  Length of s c h o o l i n g i s thus decided  school  teachers. a very Important f a c t o r .  change s u c h as c o n v e r t i n g an 8-3  bound t o a f f e c t t h e t o t a l s c h o o l  t o a 6-3-3  Any plan i s  enrolment.  1. D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , O t t a w a , 760,000 ( a p p . ) , P r o v i n c i a l B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a 800,00 ( a p p . ) , b o t h f o r t h e y e a r 1938. ( R e p o r t e d i n p r i v a t e i n t e r v i e w w i t h A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a , J u l y 1939.  40 Many f a c t o r s , b o t h s o c i a l and  economic, a f f e c t the  l e n g t h o f t i m e t h e a v e r a g e p u p i l spends i n s c h o o l . T h e r e i s e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e l a s t two i n c r e a s e i n the  d e c a d e s have s e e n a r e m a r k a b l e  s c h o o l p e r i o d and  t h i s i n c r e a s e has  accounted  almost i n whole f o r the growth i n attendance at p u b l i c  schools  i n B r i t i s h Columbia.  C e r t a i n l y some o f t h e most o b v i o u s  factors extending  s c h o o l p e r i o d are the l a c k of  ities  the  f o r employment, t h e  the urge t o escape the  a b s e n c e o f an a p p r e n t i c e s h i p  and p r o f e s s i o n s , and p r o b a b l y  the  skilled  trades  a l l - t o o - p r e v a l e n t tendency  t o a c c e p t i t p a s s i v e l y as t h e t h i n g t o  facilities  system,  i n s e c u r e p o s i t i o n o f t h e u n s k i l l e d and  g a i n access t o the apparent s e c u r i t y of the  T h e r e has  opportun-  do.  been a determined e f f o r t everywhere t o  for this  provide"  i n c r e a s i n g l y l a r g e number o f p u p i l s  have l i n g e r e d on a t s c h o o l .  B o t h p h y s i c a l equipment  who  and  c o u r s e s h a v e b e e n d r a s t i c a l l y a l t e r e d t o meet t h e d e s i r e s t h i s new nor  g r o u p who  i n t e r e s t i n g . To  schooling w i l l be  continue  years.  I n 1937  percent  may  The  t h i s t r e n d t o w a r d s more I t i s hardly  t h e e n r o l m e n t i n G r a d e X I I was Excluding the  about  of 25  unpredictable  i n the f u t u r e complete the e n t i r e  that at l e a s t course.  expansion or c o n t r a c t i o n of e d u c a t i o n a l  There s t i l l  to  complete the f u l l p e r i o d  many e d u c a t i o n i s t s c o n s i d e r  a l s o have a v e r y  teachers.  old courses n e i t h e r u s e f u l  i s d i f f i c u l t to say.  cent of t h a t i n Grade I .  e f f e c t o f t h e war  can  what e x t e n t  expected that every p u p i l w i l l  twelve per  have f o u n d the  of  services  d e f i n i t e e f f e c t on t h e demand f o r r e m a i n i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a two  fields  50  41 t h a t have been b u t b a r e l y s c r a t c h e d , namely p r e - s c h o o l and adult education.  I t i s d o u b t f u l whether a d d i t i o n a l  s e r v i c e s c a n be i n a u g u r a t e d w i t h o u t p u b l i c demand f o r s u c h s e r v i c e s . i s suggested  r a t h e r than  educational  there being f i r s t  a  I n most c a s e s  t h e demand  b u t i t must  nevertheless  expressed  exist. Whether s c h o o l s e r v i c e s e x p a n d o r c o n t r a c t i s l a r g e l y a matter  of cost. Professor LaZerte  of the U n i v e r s i t y of  A l b e r t a i s q u o t e d as s a y i n g t h a t w h i l e n e a r l y e v e r y o n e a p p r e c i a t e s t h e v a l u e o f an e d u c a t i o n f e w a r e p r e p a r e d t o pay  for it.  No D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n ,  however s t r o n g o r  p r o g r e s s i v e , c a n f o r l o n g e x c e e d a r a t h e r i n d e f i n i t e maximum cost without meeting a c t i v e o p p o s i t i o n . As  l o n g as e i t h e r e x p a n s i o n  under t h e aegis  o r retrenchment remains  o f a s i n g l e b o d y s u c h as t h e C o u n c i l o f P u b l i c  I n s t r u c t i o n a n d as l o n g as t h e t r a i n i n g o f t e a c h e r s  i s within  t h e g a m b i t o f i t s c o n t r o l , s o l o n g does e i t h e r r e m a i n  reason-  a b l y p r e d i c t a b l e and c o n t r o l l a b l e . A w e l l - f o r m u l a t e d , l o n g term p o l i c y c o u l d permit personnel  t h e easy adjustment o f t e a c h i n g  t o changing requirements  w h i c h have a r i s e n i n t h e p a s t — a teachers  o r unpremeditated  conditions  surplus o f c e r t a i n types of  accompanied by a simultaneous  Sudden e r r a t i c attempts  and prevent  shortage  of others.  changes w o u l d n u l l i f y any  t o r e g u l a t e e i t h e r t h e demand o r t h e s u p p l y o f  teachers. With a given standard  o f e d u c a t i o n t h e need f o r  teachers  depends u p o n how many p u p i l s t h e r e a r e t o t e a c h . The number  42 o f p u p i l s i s i n t u r n a f f e c t e d b y t h e number o f b i r t h s and t h e number o f y e a r s  e a c h p u p i l s p e n d s i n s c h o o l . The number  of b i r t h s i s r e l a t e d t o t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n w h i l e t h e s c h o o l p e r i o d i s c o n t r o l l e d b y s u o h f a c t o r s as employment c o n d i t i o n s , educational f a c i l i t i e s ,  p e r s o n a l a t t i t u d e s a n d o t h e r s . The  number o f t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s t h u s  created represents the  t o t a l demand f o r t e a c h e r s . The a c t u a l demand o f a n y one y e a r is  some f r a c t i o n o f t h i s  total.  B. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n as A f f e c t e d b y V a r i o u s Factors. The  s e c o n d m a j o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s n o t t h e t o t a l number  o f p u p i l s b u t how t h a t t o t a l i s d i s t r i b u t e d . The  p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l school population located i n  u r b a n and i n r u r a l s c h o o l s i s an i m p o r t a n t  item. Rural classes  o f n e c e s s i t y t e n d t o b e s m a l l e r . As s o o n as a n y new  district  c a n m u s t e r up s e v e n c h i l d r e n o f s c h o o l age i t c a n a p p l y f o r a school. I n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a t h e r e a r e a l a r g e number o f r u r a l s c h o o l s many w i t h j u s t t h e minimum number o f p u p i l s a n d f e w w i t h more t h a n t w e n t y . Thus i f a l l t h e p u p i l s i n t h e r u r a l u n g r a d e d s c h o o l s c o u l d be c o l l e c t e d t o g e t h e r i n l a r g e  sohools  on t h e same b a s i s a s u r b a n s c h o o l s a l a r g e r e d u c t i o n i n t h e number o f t e a c h e r s n e e d e d w o u l d f o l l o w a t o n c e . Hence a n y marked s h i f t  i n the population t o or from the c i t i e s or  other t h i c k l y populated  areas  demand f o r t e a c h e r s w i t h o u t in the t o t a l school  h a s a d e f i n i t e e f f e c t on t h e  there being the s l i g h t e s t  attendance.  change  Consolidation of r u r a l schools  also affects the dis-  t r i b u t i o n of the p u p i l s , bringing with i t a reduction i n the need f o r t e a c h e r s  by i n c r e a s i n g t h e s i z e o f the c l a s s e s .  A c t u a l c a s e s o f c o n s o l i d a t i o n have p r o b a b l y demand f o r t e a c h e r s  not a f f e c t e d the  as much as m i g h t be e x p e c t e d b e c a u s e i t  has b e e n g e n e r a l l y c o n f i n e d t o a r e a s w h i c h a r e f a i r l y w e l l populated.  The c o s t o f t r a n s p o r t i n g p u p i l s o v e r l o n g  in sparsely s e t t l e d d i s t r i c t s probably teachers  salaries.  distances  o f f s e t s any s a v i n g i n  Consolidation i s also discouraged  by the  i n c r e a s e d t i m e s p e n t away f r o m home e a c h d a y and b y t h e difficulty country to  of combating t h e elements i n those  s e c t i o n s of the  subject t o heavy s n o w f a l l s . C o n s o l i d a t i o n i s a f a c t o r  be c o n s i d e r e d b u t i n t h e p r o b l e m o f f o r e c a s t i n g i t becomes  of m i n o r i m p o r t a n c e , f o r o n l y c e r t a i n a r e a s l e n d t h e m s e l v e s to  i t s adoption  and t h e i n a u g u r a t i o n o f s u c h a scheme r e q u i r e s  considerable planning e f f e c t t o be d u l y  s o t h a t ample t i m e i s a l l o w e d f o r i t s  discounted.  C. The Number o f S e p a r a t i o n s . W h i l e t h e number o f t e a c h e r s given year teachers  depends  a c t u a l l y r e q u i r e d i n any  u p o n t h e number o f r e p l a c e m e n t s o f  a c t i v e l y engaged d u r i n g t h e y e a r p l u s o r minus any  requirements t o cover  expansion or c o n t r a c t i o n of educational  s e r v i c e s i n t e r m s o f a change i n t h e number o f p u p i l s . The t o t a l number o f t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s i s d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e number a n d d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e p u p i l s w h i l e t h e number o f separations  i s r e l a t e d t o t h e t o t a l number o f p o s i t i o n s .  While t h e previous  t w o s e c t i o n s have c o n s i d e r e d  the conditions  44 a f f e c t i n g t h e t o t a l demand t h i s  section deals p r i m a r i l y with  one p h a s e o f t h e a c t u a l demand. E v e r y y e a r a c e r t a i n number o f t e a c h e r s l e a v e t h e p r o f e s s i o n . The o u t s t a n d i n g f a c t i s t h e r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e number. T h e r e a r e o n l y enough g r a d u a t e s  each year t o r e p l a c e a l l t h e  members o f t h e m e d i c a l , d e n t a l o r l e g a l p r o f e s s i o n i n f r o m 30 t o 40 y e a r s . Y e t i n t h e l a s t 15 y e a r s t h e r e have b e e n  suffic-  i e n t numbers o f N o r m a l a n d T e a c h e r T r a i n i n g g r a d u a t e s t o r e p l a c e t h e w h o l e t e a c h i n g b o d y more t h a n one a n d a h a l f times* As v e r y f e w f a i l e d t o s e c u r e p o s i t i o n s , t e a c h e r s o n t h e averagemust n o t s t a y w i t h t h e p r o f e s s i o n f o r a p e r i o d l o n g e r t h a n a b o u t 10 y e a r s . . Why s h o u l d t e a c h i n g s u f f e r f r o m  such  a h i g h r a t e o f t u r n o v e r - - f o u r t i m e s a s g r e a t as t h e o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n s ? O b v i o u s l y i t must b e due t o c e r t a i n c h a r a c t eristics The  of the teaching professions? first  of t h e sexes. two  and p r i m a r y d i f f e r e n c e i s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n I n t e a c h i n g , women o u t - n u m b e r t h e men n e a r l y  t o one, b u t i n t h e o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n s , except  nursing,  women a r e t h e e x c e p t i o n . As a c o n s e q u e n c e m a r r i a g e the ranks In those  depletes  o f t h e t e a c h e r s more t h a n a n y o t h e r s i n g l e c o u n t r i e s where m a r r i a g e  factor.  i s no b a r i t s e f f e c t i s  l e s s , b u t t r a d i t i o n a l l y and f o r economic reasons  British  Columbia and t h e o t h e r C a n a d i a n P r o v i n c e s a r e o f f e r e d t o m a r r i e d women t e a c h e r s . W h i l e means a c o n s t a n t  the marriage  r a t e i s b y no  q u a n t i t y , b e i n g r a t h e r s e n s i t i v e t o sudden  economic changes, i t i s s t a b l e enough t o p e r m i t  prediction.  As t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f men c o n t i n u e s t o i n c r e a s e t h e number  45 of s e p a r a t i o n s  due  t o m a r r i a g e w i l l become s m a l l e r .  A second d i f f e r e n c e between the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n the  other major p r o f e s s i o n s  ities.  The  and  i s i t s socio-eoonomic p e c u l i a r -  f a c t that teachers  are p u b l i c servants  c o n t r o l o f p u b l i c b o d i e s and p a i d o u t  under  the  of the p u b l i c purse  e x p o s e s them t o c e r t a i n f o r m s o f p e t t y a n n o y a n c e s . T h e s e c o n d i t i o n s t e n d t o d e t e r a l a r g e number o f men t h e p r o f e s s i o n and become t h o r o u g h l y Low  from  entering  a c e r t a i n number a l r e a d y i n i t , d i s s a t i s f i e d , leave  having  as o p p o r t u n i t i e s  arise.  s a l a r i e s combined w i t h a f e e l i n g of s o c i a l , i n f e r i o r i t y  added t o a l l t h e what t h e I s no  little  grievances  t o g e t h e r may  dampen some-  e n t h u s i a s m o f t h e m o s t b u o y a n t i n d i v i d u a l . When t h e r e  hope o f a d v a n c e m e n t o r i m p r o v e m e n t i t c a n n o t be  ed a t t h a t t e a c h i n g  i s considered  more t h a n a  wonder-  stepping-stone  t o s o m e t h i n g b e t t e r . F o r t u n a t e l y i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a much has b e e n done t o i m p r o v e t h e s t a t u s o f t e a c h e r s . periods  of p r e p a r a t i o n  a r e now  required, higher  a r e demanded, minimum s a l a r y l a w s a r e of t e n u r e  Longer certificates  i n e f f e c t and  established. In addition a properly  security  organized  p e n s i o n scheme i s i n v o g u e . A l l t h e s e t e n d t o r e s t r i c t who  w o u l d l i g h t l y e n t e r t h e p r o f e s s i o n and  W h i l e i t i s t o o much t o hope t h a t t e a c h i n g as s t a b l e as d e n t i s t r y o r m e d i c i n e mueh c a n towards t h a t end. and  Higher standards,  g r e a t e r rewards a l l p o i n t  leave  as q u i c k l y .  c a n e v e r y be made and  has  b e t t e r working  i n that  those  b e e n done conditions  direction.  Common t o a l l t y p e s o f a c t i v i t y a r e c e r t a i n o t h e r f a c t o r s causing vacancies,  n a m e l y d e a t h and  retirement.  46 Retirement important  and s u p e r a n n u a t i o n  become i n c r e a s i n g l y  as s t a b l e c o n d i t i o n s d e v e l o p  and c o n t i n u e  in a  t e a c h i n g b o d y . As l o n g as t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n i s a mere stepping stone  t o something b e t t e r few w i l l  remain l o n g  e n o u g h t o f o r m a r e t i r i n g g r o u p o f a n y s i z e and, s i g n i f i c a n c e . When t h e r e i s a p r o p e r l y o r g a n i z e d s u p e r a n n u a t i o n  scheme as  i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i t i s v e r y e a s y t o f i n d o u t how many teachers  w i l l r e t i r e each year f o r t h e next f i v e o r s i x y e a r s .  Otherwise t h i s  i s a difficult thing to  determine.  Much t h e same c a n b e s a i d f o r t h e e f f e c t I f t h e t e a c h i n g body i s a f a i r l y  of m o r t a l i t y .  l a r g e and u n c h a n g i n g group  the m o r t a l i t y l o s s e s c a n be d e t e r m i n e d w i t h a h i g h degree o f accuracy. The to  number o f y e a r l y s e p a r a t i o n s I s t h u s  s e e n t o be due  a v a r i e t y o f f a c t o r s , some o f t h e p e c u l i a r t o t h e t e a c h -  ing  p r o f e s s i o n . Marriage  o f women t e a c h e r s  for  men t o s e e k b e t t e r o c c u p a t i o n s  and t h e tendency  a r e t h e major causes of  v a c a n c i e s , a l t h o u g h d e a t h s and r e t i r e m e n t s add t h e i r  quota.  A l l f l u c t u a t e , b u t t h e f i r s t two a r e b y f a r t h e most v a r i a b l e since they are responsive  t o e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s . The o n l y  means o f p r e d i c t i o n c o n s i s t o f p r o j e c t i n g t h e t r e n d s  beyond  t h e known d a t a . S i n c e e c o n o m i c c h a n g e s c a u s e a n d t h e r e f o r e precede f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the marriage  a n d employment r a t e i t  i s p o s s i b l e t o weight t h e i r p r o j e c t i o n s and thus accuracy  improve t h e  of the estimates.  D. E c o n o m i c  Conditions.  Underlying  a l l t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h d e t e r m i n e t h e demand  47 for teachers, • > w h e t h e r i t be t h e number o f p u p i l s , how d i s t r i b u t e d o r how s u b t l e but  many t e a c h e r s  a l l important  The  are  a n n u a l l y withdraw, i s the  one—economic conditions.  p r o p o s e d t o s h o w , . i n t u r n , i n what way a l l the other  they  It is  now  these c o n d i t i o n s a f f e c t  factors.  g r o w t h i n p o p u l a t i o n o f Canada as a w h o l e and  of  the  p r o v i n c e s s e p a r a t e l y has b e e n v e r y m a r k e d l y c o n t r o l l e d b y  the  c y c l e o f p r o s p e r i t y and d e p r e s s i o n . The m o s t r a p i d g r o w t h  has  o c c u r r e d d u r i n g p e r i o d s o f p r o s p e r i t y — i n d e e d Canada has  enjoy-  ed t h e g r e a t e s t i n c r e a s e s e v e r r e c o r d e d d u r i n g c e r t a i n p r o sperous  decades. This expansion,  h o w e v e r , has b e e n due  e n t i r e l y t o i m m i g r a t i o n . More r e c e n t l y , as a r e s u l t s e v e r e e c o n o m i c d e p r e s s i o n e m i g r a t i o n has  exceeded  Whether t h e r a t e of growth o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n w i l l a t some f u t u r e d a t e  i s , perhaps,  almost  of the immigration.  a g a i n advance  not p r e d i c t a b l e . I t would  seem h o w e v e r t h a t f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a a t l e a s t , t h e  frontiers  have b e e n p u s h e d b a c k t o t h e i r u l t i m a t e and t h a t t h e r e r e m a i n s o n l y t h e f i l l i n g up such a process  of t e r r i t o r i e s  a l r e a d y opened. N a t u r a l l y  i s l e s s a t t r a c t i v e ; t h e r e i s l e s s of the  ment o f c h a n c e . To  a p i o n e e r the f u t u r e of a d i s t r i c t  wholly unchartered  and t h e r e f o r e h o l d s  ele-  Is  out undreamed of  p o s s i b i l i t i e s b u t t h e f u t u r e o f an e s t a b l i s h e d c o m m u n i t y I s more c e r t a i n l y d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e Many p e o p l e  are i n v e t e r a t e gamblers and  present.  a r e much more w i l l i n g  48 to r i s k t h e i r - p r e s e n t comfort f o r f u t u r e opulence are t o accept a dead l e v e l  than  o f e x i s t e n c e . I n o t h e r words,  a r e g i o n has r e a c h e d a c e r t a i n s t a g e i n i t d e v e l o p m e n t , m i g h t c o r r e s p o n d r o u g h l y w i t h e a r l y manhood, f u r t h e r and e x p a n s i o n become s l o w e r a n d more d i f f i c u l t . whether B r i t i s h Columbia expansion  they  will  after which  growth  Many q u e s t i o n  ever a g a i n witness such a r a p i d  i n p o p u l a t i o n as i t h a d d u r i n g t h e f i r s t decade o f  the t w e n t i e t h century. The i n almost  b i r t h r a t e has s u f f e r e d a g r a d u a l b u t c o n s t a n t  decline  every country i n the world. Certain countriesf o r  nationalistic  reasons  have e n d e a v o r e d  t o check t h e d e c l i n e  or even t o i n c r e a s e t h e b i r t h - r a t e b y a v a r i e t y o f schemes, s u c h as b o n u s e s , s u b s i d i e s , r e d u c t i o n s i n t a x e s , a n d a p p e a l s t o p a t r i o t i c f e e l i n g s , b u t a l l s u c h methods h a v e b e e n w i t h o u t avail--the decline continues. Malthus  thought  t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n would Increase a t  s u c h a r a t e t h a t i t w o u l d be h e l d i n c h e c k  only by the l a c k  of f o o d b y d i s e a s e a n d b y o t h e r c a l a m i t i e s s u c h as w a r . S u c h however h a s n o t b e e n t h e c a s e . A t no t i m e has t h e w o r l d b e e n more c a p a b l e o f p r o d u c i n g a n a b u n d a n c e o f f o o d t h a n a t t h e p r e s e n t ; i n d e e d a t t i m e s t h e o v e r p r o d u c t i o n has been an a c t u a l e m b a r r a s s m e n t — a n d y e t t h e p o p u l a t i o n has a l m o s t ceased t o i n c r e a s e . Malthus simplification.  Vol.  e r r e d on t h e p o i n t o f o v e r -  No s i n g l e f a c t o r c o n t r o l s t h e b i r t h - r a t e , i t  2. " B i r t h - R a t e " . E n c y c l o p a e d i a B r i t a n n i c a p . 6 5 2 , 14 e d . , I l l , (1937). — —  49 i s t h e r e s u l t , o f t h e i n t e r p l a y o f a number o f f a c t o r s . One o f t h e s e f a c t o r s Malthus  had s a i d  statement tends  i s the standard of l i v i n g . I f  "standard of l i v i n g "  i n s t e a d of "food" h i s  w o u l d have b e e n more n e a r l y t r u e . The p o p u l a t i o n  t o i n c r e a s e t o s u c h an e x t e n t t h a t a n a c c e p t e d  o f l i v i n g c a n be m a i n t a i n e d While  with  standard  difficulty.  t h e r e was a demand f o r more hands t o t e n d t h e new  machines and d e v e l o p  t h e new l a n d s t h e b i r t h - r a t e  remained  h i g h , b u t when a s u r p l u s o f l a b o r b e g a n t o a p p e a r t h e b i r t h r a t e b e g a n t o d e c l i n e a n d has c o n t i n u e d t o do s o e v e r s i n c e . I n b o t h t h e new a n d o l d w o r l d , c h i l d r e n w e r e , f o r many y e a r s an e c o n o m i c a s s e t . T o - d a y t h e y a r e a g r e a t e r l i a b i l i t y t o t h e i r parents been s u g g e s t e d liability,  t h a n t h e y have e v e r been i n t h e p a s t . I t has t h a t a s l o n g as c h i l d r e n r e m a i n a n e c o n o m i c  j u s t so l o n g w i l l the b i r t h - r a t e continue t o  decline. I n every c o u n t r y t h e r e e x i s t s a f a i r l y l a r g e group of i n d i v i d u a l s who a r e w i l l i n g and r e a d y t o move t o t h a t p a r t of t h e w o r l d o f f e r i n g t h e b e s t o p p o r t u n i t i e s . N a t i o n a l i n d u s tries  o f l a t e , h o w e v e r , have t e n d e d  migrations towards those  t o c u r b t h e s e mass  countries enjoying the greatest  p r o s p e r i t y . The h i s t o r y o f Canada has a number o f e x a m p l e s of e x t e n s i v e i m m i g r a t i o n i n g o o d t i m e s f o l l o w e d l a t e r b y e m i g r a t i o n d u r i n g b a d t i m e s . The r e m o v a l o f t h e s e  restrictions  m i g h t a g a i n s e e l a r g e number on t h e move. W h e t h e r t h i s be t h e c a s e  o r n o t w i l l be due l a r g e l y t o p o l i t i c a l  will  con-  s i d e r a t i o n s a n d must t h e r e f o r e g i v e s u f f i c i e n t w a r n i n g t o  50 a l l o w f o r any Not  necessary  o n l y do  countries  f l o w of. h u m a n i t y b u t same r e a s o n s . T h i s not  preparations. and  l o c a l s h i f t I n p o p u l a t i o n , h o w e v e r , does  as s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t t h e  does n o t  t h i s ebb  c o m m u n i t i e s l i k e w i s e , and f o r much t h e  er. I t requires a s h i f t but  as a w h o l e e x p e r i e n c e  attempts at p l a n n i n g  i n the d i s p o s i t i o n of the  i n v o l v e a change i n t h e  E c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s have p l a y e d  as t h e  form-  personnel  total. a l a r g e p a r t i n the  l e n g t h o f s c h o o l i n g e n j o y e d b y p u p i l s of d i f f e r e n t p e r i o d s . Increasing n a t i o n a l wealth  has  made p o s s i b l e a l o n g e r  of p r e p a r a t i o n " f o r t h e r i s i n g g e n e r a t i o n . i z a t i o n and  I n c r e a s i n g mechan-  i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of the n a t i o n ' s  activities  n e c e s s i t a t e d more t r a i n i n g . T h e s e , h i s t o r i c a l l y , the r o o t causes of l o n g e r have w i t n e s s e d time by  a still  period  schooling. Recently,  have  have b e e n  however,  f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e brought about  we  this  an e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t f a c t o r , namely unemployment.  With nothing  t o do  and no p r o s p e o t s o f work l a r g e numbers o f  p u p i l s have c o n t i n u e d the t i m e - - o t h e r s  w i t h t h e i r edueation--some t o put  t o prepare themselves b e t t e r f o r the  p e t i t i v e s t r u g g l e f o r j o b s . Improved economic would p r o b a b l y withdrawals would t a k e  see  a l e s s e n i n g of the  o f t h o s e who  out  a job i n s t e a d of a t t e n d i n g  balance t h i s , however, i s the  com-  conditions  a t t e n d a n c e , due  of n e c e s s i t y or  In  to  the  preference  s c h o o l . To  counter-  growing p u b l i c acceptance  of  t h e f a c t t h a t as f a r as p o s s i b l e , h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t i o n t h e minimum e s s e n t i a l . Generally speaking  public educational  s y s t e m s do  not  is  move i n a d v a n c e o f p u b l i c demands. I t i s t i m e t h e y may i n i t i a l s new schemes b u t a n y c o n c e r t e d a c t i o n c a n o n l y f o l l o w p u b l i c enlightment  as t o t h e n e e d f o r a n d v a l u e o f an added  T h e s e new s e r v i c e s , d u r i n g t h e i r t r i a l  service.  stage, are p a r t i c u l a r l y  v u l n e r a b l e t o e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s s i n c e no g o v e r n m e n t , m a t t e r how f i r m l y e n t r e n c h e d involved. Rapid to  expansion  can e n t i r e l y Ignore  i n times  no  the costs  of p r o s p e r i t y often lead  e v e n more r a p i d c o n t r a c t i o n s d u r i n g t i m e s  of depression.  W e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d s e r v i c e s s u f f e r less from the business  cycle  t h a n more r e c e n t a d d i t i o n s b u t f o r t h e t i m e , a t l e a s t , a l l expansion  ceases  advancements  are  and i f t h e d e p r e s s i o n i s s e v e r e lost.  The g r a d u a l d e c r e a s e that occurs  ly  I n t h e number o f p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r  during periods of progress  the onslaught  s u f f e r s a setback  with  of economic d i f f i c u l t i e s . A d m i n i s t r a t o r s q u i c k -  d i s c o v e r t h a t t h e i r o n l y hope o f s u b s t a n t i a l  lies  recent  retrenchment  i n reducing s a l a r y costs both by reductions i n s a l a r i e s  and b y r e d u c t i o n s i n p e r s o n n e l . L o s t g r o u n d i s d i f f i c u l t t o r e c a p t u r e ; a community  e a s i l y come t o b e l i e v e t h a t i t c a n do  w i t h o u t t h e e x t r a t e a c h e r s . The n e e d f o r t e a c h e r s may  thus  decline. The e c o n o m i c s t a t e o f a c o u n t r y e v e n a f f e c t s t h e r a t e at w h i c h t h e p o p u l a t i o n d r i f t s  c i t y w a r d . The t r e n d has b e e n  f r o m t h e c o u n t r y t o t h e c i t y f o r some y e a r s . The i n c r e a s i n g i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n o f C a n a d a has g r e a t l y a c c e l e r a t e d i t s i n c e t h e t u r n o f t h e c e n t u r y . The c o n v e n i e n c e s city life  and p l e a s u r e s of  have a l s o b e e n a p o w e r f u l f o r c e c a u s i n g a n i n c r e a s e  52 i n u r b a n i z a t i o n . However t h e r a t e has n o t b e e n  constant—  p r o s p e r i t y a c c e l e r a t i n g and a d v e r s i t y r e t a r d i n g i t . Likewise  teachers  i n other f i e l d s ever,  leave  t h e p r o f e s s i o n when  o f a c t i v i t y a r e good.  r e d u c e s t h e number o f s e p a r a t i o n s  minimum. I n d e e d a f a i r l y  E c o n o m i c s t r e s s , howt o the absolute  l a r g e number o f f o r m e r  suddenly discover that teaching in p o s s i b i l i t i e s  opportunities  teachers  i s n o t so c o m p l e t e l y  lacking  as t h e y h a d s u p p o s e d and r e t u r n t o u p s e t  f u r t h e r t h e balance between supply  a n d demand.  F u n d a m e n t a l l y , t h e n , e a c h f a c t o r a f f e c t i n g t h e demand f o r teachers  has i t s r o o t s b u r i e d i n t h e economic  of t h e c o u n t r y . responsive the  conditions  I n some c a s e s t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e q u i c k l y  t o sudden changes i n t h e economic sphere; i n others  r e s u l t i n g f l u c t u a t i o n s a r e more d e l i b e r a t e and e x t e n d e d . W h i l e i t i s n o t n e c e s s a r y t o be f o r e v e r w a t c h i n g t h e  economic s t a t e o f a c o u n t r y in conditions  should  a r a t h e r l a r g e and d e f i n i t e  change  be s u f f i c i e n t w a r n i n g t o e x p e c t c e r t a i n  c o r r e s p o n d i n g c h a n g e s t o o c c u r i n t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s . p e r i o d o f e x p a n s i o n c a n be e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e and  and a sudden  d e f i n i t e r e g r e s s i o n t o d e c r e a s e t h e n o r m a l demand f o r  teachers. Having discussed  a t some l e n g t h t h e e f f e c t o f v a r i o u s  f a c t o r s on t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s ,  we now t u r n t o a  q u a n t i t a t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e same p r o b l e m s .  A  53 ' \  CHAPTER I V  A S t a t i s t i c a l S t u d y o f Some F a c t o r g A f f e c t i n g Demand. A. S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n . To t h e e n d t h a t some d e d u c t i o n s  a n d c o n c l u s i o n s c a n be  f o r m u l a t e d as t o t h e p r o b a b l e f u t u r e c h a n g e s i n t h e s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t i t w i l l be n e c e s s a r y , f i r s t ,  t o d i s c u s s i n some  d e t a i l t h e g r o w t h o f p o p u l a t i o n as i t h a s o c c u r r e d i n Canada as a w h o l e a n d i n t h e p r o v i n c e i n p a r t i c u l a r . Census t a k i n g as a r e g u l a r i n s t i t u t i o n h a s b e e n i n e f f e c t i n Canada s i n c e 1852 s o t h a t a c c u r a t e r e c o r d s have b e e n kept  o f t h e growth and s h i f t  i n population f o r the past ninety  years. The g r o w t h i n p o p u l a t i o n i n Canada s i n c e t h e t u r n o f t h e c e n t u r y has b e e n v e r y r e m a r k a b l e  e s p e c i a l l y when c o m p a r e d w i t h  t h a t o f p r e v i o u s d e c a d e s a n d w i t h cbher c o u n t r i e s . T a b l e shows t h e p e r c e n t a g e  I  i n c r e a s e i n e a c h decade over t h e p r e -  v i o u s d e c a d e f o r Canada a n d f o r f i v e  other c o u n t r i e s . While  t h e number o f e x a m p l e s i s r a t h e r l i m i t e d i t c a n h a r d l y b e q u e s t i o n e d t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n s o f t h e new c o u n t r i e s have increased f a s t e r than those From t h i s  of the o l d .  t a b l e i t c a n be seen t h a t i n t h e decade  f r o m 1901-1911 t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f Canada g r e w a t a f a s t e r r a t e t h a n i n a n y o t h e r d e c a d e s i n c e C o n f e d e r a t i o n as w e l l as o u t s t r i p p i n g , r e l a t i v e l y , every other country. This i n c r e a s e , o f c o u r s e , was a l m o s t  great  e n t i r e l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the  i m m i g r a t i o n o f l a r g e numbers o f p e o p l e , r u n n i n g i n some y e a r s t o o v e r 4 0 0 , 0 0 0 . The o p e n i n g  t o settlement of the " l a s t  best  54 west" p e r m i t t e d t h e ready a b s o r p t i o n of these v a s t  numbers.  The p o p u l a t i o n o f S a s k a t c h e w a n d u r i n g t h e same p e r i o d i n c r e a s e d b y 439 p e r c e n t . TABLE I The G r o w t h i n P o p u l a t i o n b y D e c a d e s E x p r e s s e d  as a P e r c e n t a g e  o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n o f t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r Canada f r o m 1 8 7 1 1931 and F i v e O t h e r C o u n t r i e s f r o m 1 9 0 1 - 1 9 3 1 . '  Country  1871 to 1881  1881 to 1891  1891 to 1901  1901 to 1911  1911 to 1921  1921 to 1931  Canada  17.23  11.76  11.13  34.17  21.94  18.08  U.S.A.  21.0*  14.9*  16.1*  England & Wales  10.9  5.0  5.4  Scotland  6.5  2.6  .8  30.5  20.9  24.0  18.05  22.01  19.85  Hew  Zealand  Australia  * Decades 1900-1910,  1910-1920,  1920-1930  I t i s r a t h e r d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r Canada w i l l ever, a g a i n experience immigration has  s u c h a phenomenal growth, c e r t a i n l y n o t  without  on a v e r y l a r g e s c a l e . The l a s t d e c a d e , h o w e v e r ,  seen t h i s dwindle  away t o a mere t r i c k l e . I n a n y  event,  o n l y by a g r e a t e r i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of t h e country's activities  c o u l d C a n a d a hope t o p r o v i d e w o r k f o r a n y g r e a t e r  number o f p e o p l e .  1. The Canada Y e a r B o o k , 1 9 3 4 - 3 5 . Dominion B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , 1935.  p.102: Ottawa,  55 F i g u r e - 1 , ( d r a w n on r a t i o p a p e r ) shows g r a p h i c a l l y  the  ;  g r o w t h o f p o p u l a t i o n i n C a n a d a . I t has b e e n p r o j e c t e d t o  1941  b a s e d on i n t e r c e n s a l e s t i m a t e s . I t w i l l be n o t e d t h a t t h e r e has b e e n a f a i r l y  s t e a d y , and f o r a l a r g e c o u n t r y ,  even  s p e c t a c u l a r i n c r e a s e b u t when compared w i t h t h e g r o w t h o f the w e s t e r n p r o v i n c e s i t p a l e s i n t o i n s i g n i f i c a n c e . Fig.  2).  C e r t a i n deductions  seem t o f o l l o w ,  specifically  t h a t t h e West a i d e d b y m o d e r n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and passed  through the stages  expansion  advertising  of e x p l o r a t i o n , s e t t l e m e n t  and  i n t h e s h o r t space of a few decades whereas  o l d e r p a r t s o f Canada had p r o g r e s s e d two  (See  c e n t u r i e s . Table  s l o w l y through  I I which gives the percentage  the  at  least  change i n  p o p u l a t i o n by decades b r i n g s out t h i s p o i n t v e r y f o r c i b l y .  In  B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a d u r i n g t h e t h i r t y y e a r s f r o m 1881  t o 1911  the  i n c r e a s e f o r each decade over the p r e v i o u s  nearly  p e r c e n t . T h i s meant t h e p o p u l a t i o n was t e n y e a r s . The  one was  doubling-itself  n e x t t w e n t y y e a r s f r o m 1911-1951 saw  increase drop t o almost  The  evidence  a l l p o i n t s t o the f a c t t h a t B r i t i s h  In p o p u l a t i o n .  decade  cent.  Columbia  a l o n g w i t h t h e o t h e r w e s t e r n p r o v i n c e s , h a v i n g c a u g h t up t h e e a s t w i l l f r o m now  every  the  30 p e r c e n t w h e r e a s t h e p r e s e n t  by e s t i m a t e , w i l l n o t a p p a r e n t l y e x c e e d 12 t o 15 p e r  10G  to  on e x p e r i e n c e more m o d e s t i n c r e a s e s  56  Years Fig.  1  The P o p u l a t i o n o f Canada b y D e c a d e s , 1871-to-1931  57 '''  TABLE I I  The G r o w t h i n P o p u l a t i o n b y D e c a d e s E x p r e s s e d  as a P e r c e n t a g e  o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n o f t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r t h e P r o v i n c e s o f Canada I n c l u d i n g Y u k o n a n d t h e N o r t h West T e r r i t o r i e s f r o m 1871 t o 1 9 3 1 .  1871 Province to 1881 P . E . I . 1582 Nova 1361 Scotia New B r u n s w i c k 1248 Quebec 1406 O n t a r i o 18.88 Manitoba|146.7S Sask. Alberta British C o l u m b i a 36.45 Yukon N.W.T. 17.60  Table  Increase o r Decrease Percentage 1 8 8 1 1891 1901 1911 1921 to to to to to 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 0J7  -5.33 -9.23  I n 60 years  -5.46  -0.65  -6.36  6.40  2.10  32.24  0.01 3.07 6.27 9.53 10.77 21.64 9.73 3.25 15.77 67.34 80.79 439.48 412.58  10.23 17.69 16.08 32.23 53.83 57.22  5.24 21.76 16.98 14.75 21.69 24.33  42.94 141.23 111.72 2,675.25  98.4S 82.98 119.68 -68.73 75.32 -79.66;-67.67  33.66 •51.16 22.76  32.35 1.76 21.72  1,815.37  2.23  2.04  I I I i s designed  7.13  t o bring together the  -79.79  expansions  i n s c h o o l a n d t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . Some might n a t u r a l l y expect same r a t e - - i f  t h a t t h e two w o u l d a d v a n c e a t t h e  t h e p o p u l a t i o n were d o u b l e d  the school e n r o l -  ment s h o u l d be t w i c e as much. I t i s e v i d e n t f r o m T a b l e I I I t h a t such i s not always t h e case. T h i s divergence i c u l a r l y n o t i c e a b l e i n a young, r a p i d l y d e v e l o p i n g  2. I b i d . ,  p.100  i s partcountry  58 where t h e a d v e n t o f more s e t t l e d c o n d i t i o n s l e a d s t o  increased  schooling. TABLE I I I The  Increase  i n P o p u l a t i o n and  School Enrolment by  as a P e r c e n t a g e o f t h e P r e v i o u s f r o m 1871  to  1941.  Decade f o r B r i t i s h  P o p u l a t i o n 36.45 School E n r o l m e n t 185.9  Columbia  3  Percentage Increase 1881 1891 1901 to to to 1891 1901 1911  1871 to 1881  Decades  98.49 260.2  81.98  1911 to 1921  1921 to 1931  1931 to 1941  119.68 33.66 32.35 91.9  155.1  90.5  15*"*  32.5  10*  'Estimated The  l a s t t h r e e d e c a d e s o f t h e 1 9 t h c e n t u r y were  out-  standing f o r the magnitude of the percentage i n c r e a s e s i n school attendance. i n the present occurs  decade, which, unless  i n the next year  much as 10 p e r abreast  E q u a l l y s u r p r i s i n g i s the school  cent.  will  something unforeseen s c a r c e l y advance by  I t does n o t a p p e a r t o be e v e n  as  keeping  of the expansion i n t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , a t h i n g which  o n l y h a p p e n e d i n one reason.  or two,  enrolment  o t h e r d e c a d e , and  then f o r a  different  I n t h e p e r i o d 1901-1911 t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f  became much g r e a t e r t h a n b e f o r e whereas i n t h e p r e s e n t  due  to extensive  d e c a d e i t must be due  adults immigration,  to a decline i n  3. L o c . C i t . Annual Report of the P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h V i c t o r i a , Department of EducaiJion.  Columbia.  the p r o p o r t i o n of young people  as a r e s u l t o f a d r o p i n t h e  birth-rate. F i g u r e 2 shows t h e g r o w t h i n p o p u l a t i o n and attendance  f o r B r i t i s h Columbia f o r the l a s t s i x t y y e a r s .  r e s u l t s have b e e n e x t e n d e d t o 1941 The  school  by u s i n g e s t i m a t e d  f i g u r e b r i n g s o u t v e r y c l e a r l y t h e two  m e n t i o n e d , t h a t w h i l e s c h o o l and  facts  values.  already  t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n are u s u a l l y  o l osely r e l a t e d considerable divergence  c a n a r i s e due  change i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f c h i l d r e n t o a d u l t s , t h e o f t i m e s p e n t i n s c h o o l b y e a c h c h i l d , o r b o t h . By  to a  length comparing  F i g u r e 2 w i t h F i g u r e 1 i t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e t o observe  how  much f a s t e r and more I r r e g u l a r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s g r o w t h b e e n t h a n has  The  has  Canada's. U n f o r t u n a t e l y the t r u e d i f f e r e n c e i s  not f u l l y b r o u g h t out because t h e 3 f i n c h c y c l e of has b e e n r e d u c e d t o 2 i n c h e s  Figurel  i n Figure 2 t o a l l o w f o r the  three c y c l e s . It  Is of c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t , not t o say  importance,  t o know w h e t h e r t h e l a t e s t t r e n d i n s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e  pre-  s a g e s a new  Further  evidence before  e r a of s t a t i o n a r y or d e c l i n i n g enrolment.  w i l l be b r o u g h t t o b e a r u p o n t h i s  any  a t t e m p t i s made t o f o r m a c o n c l u s i o n .  Table  IV g i v e s the enrolment f o r the e n t i r e  s y s t e m as w e l l as f o r t h e e l e m e n t a r y and  Important  question  school  and h i g h s c h o o l s e c t i o n s  a l s o f o r c e r t a i n g r a d e s f o r t h e y e a r s f r o m 1918-1938. When t h e e n r o l m e n t  elementary  and  (Table IV)  i s b r o k e n down i n t o  high school sections certain s i g n i f i c a n t  appear. In the l a s t twenty years  (1918-1938) t h e  the facts  elementary  /'-ens  Years F i g . 2.  The  P o p u l a t i o n and S c h o o l E n r o l m e n t f o r  B r i t i s h Columbia by Decades,  1871-1931.  s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e has i n c r e a s e d f r o m 62,366 t o 97,778, a n i n c r e a s e o f 56.78 p e r c e n t w h i l e t h e e n r o l m e n t has  jumped  f r o m 5,150 t o 2 2 , 5 8 2 , an a d v a n c e o f 438.5 p e r c e n t .  The o n l y  p l a u s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r such a marked d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t a g r e a t e r p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p u p i l s a r e c o n t i n u i n g on i n t o h i g h s c h o o l t h a n f o r m e r l y . The a t t e n d a n c e b y s e l e c t e d g r a d e s this  c o n c l u s i o n . W h i l e t h e Grade I e n r o l m e n t has  verifies  remained  a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same, G r a d e V I I I has made some advancement w h i l e G r a d e s I X , X I I have shown a m a r k e d  increase.  A n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t f a c t i s t h a t s i n c e 1931 t h e e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e has r e m a i n e d more t h e b e g i n n i n g c l a s s barometer  of subsequent  s u b s t a n t i a l l y t h e same. F u r t h e r -  ( G r a d e I ) w h i c h s h o u l d be a g o o d registration, first  r e a c h e d t h e 10,000  mark i n 1 9 1 2 , a t t a i n e d t h e a l l t i m e h i g h o f 15,076 i n 1928 and  has f l u c t u a t e d b e t w e e n t e n a n d t h i r t e e n t h o u s a n d  i n f o u r y e a r s ) f o r t h e l a s t 26 y e a r s . A l l t h e s e f a c t s  (except taken  t o g e t h e r w o u l d l e a d one t o c o n c l u d e t h a t w h i l e on t h e s u r f a c e t h e r e has b e e n a c o n s i s t e n t e x p a n s i o n i n s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e r i g h t up t o t h e p r e s e n t d a t e , b a s i c a l l y t h i s  increase  ceased  some y e a r s a g o . F i g u r e 3 d e p i c t s g r a p h i c a l l y t h e changes t h a t  have  occurred t o t h r e e of t h e items of Table IV,--the enrolments f o r h i g h a n d e l e m e n t a r y s e c t i o n s a n d f o r g r a d e I , Once a g a i n t h e l o g a r i t h m i c s c a l e i s u s e d t o show t h e r e l a t i v e c h a n g e s i n t h e t h r e e f a c t o r s . The l a r g e I n c r e a s e i n t h e h i g h s c h o o l , t h e s m a l l c h a n g e i n t h e e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l , and t h e d e c i d e d s t a b i l i t y o f t h e Grade I a t t e n d a n c e a r e a l l c l e a r l y discernab]©.  - ;  TABLE 1 7 ( a )  Enrolment i n s e l e c t e d p a r t s o f t h e S c h o o l Systems f o r B r i t i s h n.  C o l u m b i a , 1918 t o 1 9 3 8 . Enrolment Year 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939  Total Enrolment 67,516 72,006 79,243 85,950 91,919 94,888 96,204 97,954 101,688 105,008 108,179 109,558 111,017 113,914 115,919 116,816 115,792 117,233 116,722 118,431 120,360 120.934  Year  Grade I  1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924  11,012 13,936 13,992 14,054 13,714  4.  62,366 66,200 72,607 78,691 83,285 85,668 86,315 87,357 89,909 92,102 94,663 95,013 96,342 97,717 97,785 98,264 96,860 97,264 95,603 96,093 97,778 97.178  Grade V I I I  13,436  9,106  Ibid.  Elementary School  Grade I X  High School 5,150 5,806 6,636 7,259 8,634 9,220 9,889 10,597 11,779 12,906 13,516 14,545 14,675 16,197 18,134 18,552 18,932 19,969 21,119 22,338 22,582 23.747  Grade X I I S e n i o r  T a b l e I V (b) c o n t i n u e d Year  Grade I  Grade V I I I  1925 1926 1927 1928 • 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1957 1938 1939  12,951 13,483 14,860 15,076 14,141 13,937 13,676 12,937 12,343 11,251 12,683 12,171 12,824 13,158 12,483  9,624 10,159 10,134 10,523 10,119 10,691 10,467 10,491 10,724 11,323 11,788 11,877 11,459 11,349 11,115  Grade I X  6,726 6,629 7,819 7,469 7,981 8,036 7,679 7,871 8,849 9,369 9,808 10,040 9,847  Grade X I I S e n i o r Matric  2,426 2,754 3,008 2,921 3,650 1,810 2,747 3,132 3,147 3,120 3,281 3,471 4,137  194 189 428 570 562 841 504 620 647 452 449 464 660  A number o f c o m m u n i t i e s a r e a l r e a d y e x p e r i e n c i n g what i n a l l p r o b a b i l i t y w i l l u l t i m a t e l y be t r u e o f t h e p r o v i n c e a s a whole, namely a d e f i n i t e d e c l i n e i n r e g i s t r a t i o n i n t h e elementary schools w i t h a continued  increase i n the high  s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t . V a n e o u v e r r e p o r t s a d e c r e a s e o f 700 i n t h e e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s w h i c h i s o f f s e t somewhat b y a 200 i n c r e a s e I n t h e h i g h s c h o o l s . B u r n a b y l i k e w i s e has a 200 d e c r e a s e i n t h e e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l a n d 160 I n c r e a s e  i n high  school  attendance.^ The b i r t h r a t e h a s b e e n d e c l i n i n g g r a d u a l l y i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a as i t has b e e n d o i n g more c i v i l i z e d w o r l d .  i n n e a r l y a l l s e c t i o n s of t h e  "The c r u d e b i r t h r a t e o f E n g l a n d and  W a l e s , f o r e x a m p l e , was 35.4 p e r 1000 p o p u l a t i o n on t h e a v e r age f o r t h e d e c e n n a r y 1871-80; 32.5 f o r 1881-90 a n d 29.9 f o r  5. " C i t y ' s S c h o o l s G e t I c e Plants',' V a n c o u v e r D a i l y P r o v i n c e , V a n c o u v e r , September 12, 1939. BT^Attendance I n c r e a s e " , Vancouver D a i l y P r o v i n c e , V a n c o u v e r , O c t o b e r 6, 1939  —  *—"~>1- 7S=5j  — —  7°  ft r \  Co  &o 1  —  4.0  i ! i  JO  II  ^ >  C-  -d  /  i  •  k-  ( .P  /  —<  >'—• c  y  y  »  •  > ——*  •J / o  /  /  or>\  -  -  1  /  1  Years. Pig. 3  S c h o o l A t t e n d a n c e f o r E l e m e n t a r y and H i g h  S c h o o l s , a n d G r a d e I f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a f r o m 1918 t o 1 9 3 8 , As a t June 3 0 t h , o f E a c h  Year  65 1891-1900.- I n 1913 t h e b i r t h r a t e was 24.1 and t h o u g h i t r o s e t o 25.5 i n 1920 i t f e l l in  again  1 9 2 3 , and t h e n c e b y s u c c e s s i v e  t o 22.4 i n 1 9 2 1 , 19.7 s t a t e s t o 16.6 i n 1 9 2 7 ,  r i s i n g t o 16.7 i n 1 9 2 8 , b u t t h e r e a f t e r f a l l i n g 7 y e a r t o 15.3 i n 1932.  gradually  each  S i m i l a r l y i n F r a n c e t h e b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n e d f r o m 25.4 p e r 1000 p o p u l a t i o n  i n t h e 1870's t o 15.1 i n 1 9 3 2 /  " I n Canada t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e s t i l l p a r a t i v e l y high f i g u r e , being  s t a n d s a t a com-  20.9 p e r 1000 i n 1933. T h i s  however i s l a r g e l y due t o t h e i n f l u e n c e o f Quebec, where t h e rate, although d e c l i n i n g , s t i l l •" ' ' • • :•  stood  a t 25.9 p e r 1000 i n 1933, q  as c o m p a r e d w i t h 18.1 p e r 1000 i n O n t a r i o . " B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a has t h e l o w e s t b i r t h r a t e o f a n y o f t h e provinces.  Possibly this  i s due t o t h e l a r g e number o f e l d e r l y  p e o p l e who, a t t r a c t e d by. t h e m i l d c l i m a t e , come t o t h e P a c i f i c Coast t o spend t h e i r d e c l i n i n g y e a r s . rates f o r the various  Provinces  A comparison of the  and Canada as a w h o l e i s  s u p p l i e d b y T a b l e V. The f i r s t t w o rows g i v e t h e f i v e year averages f o r the p e r i o d s  higher  i n d i c a t e d . Quebec d i d n o t  r e p o r t p r i o r t o 1926. T a b l e V I shows t h e number o f b i r t h s ^  estimated  popula-  t i o n e x c e p t f o r t h e census y e a r 1931, and crude b i r t h (number o f b i r t h s p e r 1000 p o p u l a t i o n )  f o r the Province  7. C a n a d a Y e a r B o o k , op. c l t . , 8. I b i d . 9. I b i d .  p . 177  rate of  66 B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a f o r t h e y e a r s 1928-1938 i n c l u s i v e . TABLE V Number o f B i r t h s p e r jD Canada, 1 9 2 1 - 1 9 3 3 .  1000  P . E . I . N.S. Averages 1921-25 n 1926-30 tt 1931 »i 1932 w 1933  22.6 19.7 21.3 22.8 21.9  23.4 21.4 22.6 22.4 21.4  Population  N.B.  Que.  28.4 25.8 26.5 26.2 23.9  30.5 29.1 28.3 25.9  --  f o r Each Province  and  Ont.  Man..  S a s k . A l t a , B.C.  Can.  23.7 21.0 20.2 19.2 18.1  26.8 21.7 20.5 19.9 18.4  27.7 24.7 23.1 22.3 21.2  24 J. 23*2  26.0 24.2 23.6 23.0 21.3  18.4 16.2 15.0 14.5 13.5  20.9  TABLE V I Number o f B i r t h s , B i r t h - R a t e ,  and  Population  for  British  C o l u m b i a , 1928-38 I n c l u s i v e / ' Year  Number o f B i r t h s  1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 *  The occurred  Population^  Birth-Rate  10 ,385 6 4 1 , 000 16.2 10 ,378 15.7 659, 000 15.0 10 ,867 676, 000 10 ,404 694, 263 ( c e i i . )15.0 10 ,214 704, 000 14.5 9 ,583 712, 000 13 .5 9 ,813 13.5 7 2 5 , 000 10 ,013 13.6 7 3 5 , 000 10 ,571 14.0 750, 000 l i t ,279 15.0 751, 000 15.7 12 ,000* 7 6 1 , 000 A p p r o x JLmate # I n t e r c e n s a l E s t i m a t e s of P o p u l a t i o n e x c e p t 1931 d e c l i n e i n t h e number o f b i r t h s ( T a b l e V I ) f r o m 1930  t o 1934  economic c o n d i t i o n s r e c o v e r e d s i n c e 1935  that  w o u l d seem t o i n d i c a t e t h a t  d e f i n i t e l y a f f e c t the b i r t h r a t e . I t although i t i s s t i l l  10. I b i d . 11. R e g i s t r a r of V i t a l L e t t e r , December 19, 1938.  below the  1928  Statistics, Victoria.  has level.  Private  67 Whether I t , w i l l  c o n t i n u e t o r i s e o r a g a i n d e c l i n e cannot  f o r e t o l d but unless  economic  be  or p o l i t i c a l d i f f i c u l t l e s create  u n u s u a l c o n d i t i o n s i t w o u l d seem p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e b i r t h r a t e might s t a b i l i z e around t h e average of the l a s t t e n or fifteen  years.  In conjunction w i t h the b i r t h - r a t e i t i s e n l i g h t e n i n g t o e x a m i n e t h e age d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . As  there  a r e no r e l i a b l e methods o f e s t i m a t i n g t h e p o p u l a t i o n b y g r o u p s o n l y t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e c e n s u s f i g u r e s c a n be  age  used.  TABLE V I I Number p e r 1000  o f P o p u l a t i o n b y Age  G r o u p s f o r Census Y e a r s  f o r Canada 1871-1931. Age 1871 Groups Under 1 year 30 1-4 y r s . 115 5-9 y r s . 140 10-19 y r s , 239 20-29 y r s , 171 30-39 y r s , 111 40-49 y r s , 79 50-59 y r s , 54 60 & o v e r 55 Not g i v e n --- '  1881  1891  1901  1911  1921  28 108 128 227 175 113 83 58 63 13  24 99 121 219 178 122 88 62 70 13  24 95 114 210 173 129 98 67 76 9  25 97 108 191 189 141 100 69 71 5  23 96 119 195 159 146 109 73 74 2  Certain f a c t s stand  1931 19 84 109 203 163 134 118 82 83 0  out i n T a b l e V I I . F i r s t , t h e r e  m a r k e d d e c l i n e i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f c h i l d r e n u n d e r one  is a year,  f r o m 50 p e r t h o u s a n d i n 1871 t o 19 p e r t h o u s a n d i n 1 9 3 1 . I n d e e d , i n t h e d e c a d e f r o m 1921 t o 1931 t h e p o p u l a t i o n C a n a d a i n c r e a s e d b y 1,567,837 ( f r o m 8,787,949 t o 1 2 . Canada Y e a r B o o k . op. c l t ; , p .  117  of  10,376,786),  68 yet  t h e number o f c h i l d r e n u n d e r 10 y e a r s o f age  remained  amost t h e same (2,106,200 and 2,207, 400  respectively).  e v e r y age g r o u p shows a d e c r e a s e  as compared w i t h  u n t i l we  come t o t h e age  but o f e v e r y t h o u s a n d  i n 1931  group, 30-39. T h i r d , I n 1871,  was  T h o s e 9 y e a r s and u n d e r ,  1931  was  y e a r i n w h i c h t h e number o f c h i l d r e n 4 y e a r s and  l e s s t h a n t h e number I n t h e age  1871  526  were u n d e r 20 y e a r s o f age b u t i n  t h e p r o p o r t i o n had d e c l i n e d t o 4 1 6 . And f o u r t h , 1931 first  Second,  the  under  group 5 t o 9 y e a r s .  however, s t i l l  e x c e e d e d t h e number  f o u n d I n t h e age p e r i o d 1 0 - 1 9 . The  1931  census  r e s u l t s f o r B r i t i s h Columbia  b r i e f l y s u m m a r i z e d as Under 5 years A c t u a l 51,979 numbers  5-9  can  be  follows:  years  59,149  10-14  years  15-19  59,823  years  62,346  T h e s e numbers r e p r e s e n t t h e a c t u a l f i g u r e s , n o t p r o p o r t i o n s , f o u n d I n t h e r e s p e c t i v e age of  groups.  IJr I s a p p a r e n t  t h e number  c h i l d r e n i s . n o t b e i n g m a i n t a i n e d . T h e r e were 10,000 f e w e r  i n t h e age  g r o u p 4 y e a r s and u n d e r ,  U n l i k e the average  t h a n i n the group 15-19.  f o r Canada t h e r e were a l s o f e w e r u n d e r  y e a r s t h a n i n t h e age p e r i o d 1 0 - 1 9 . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a  also  t h e s m a l l e s t p r o p o r t i o n o f p e o p l e u n d e r 20 y e a r s o f age any p r o v i n c e i n C a n a d a , n a m e l y 356 p e r t h o u s a n d  R e g i s t r a r of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s ,  had  of  compared t o  416 f o r a l l o f C a n a d a .  13.  10  op. c i t  69 I t I s r e p o r t e d t h a t i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s t h e r e are fewer p e r s o n s b e l o w t h e any  o f 15 y e a r s now  t h a n at any time i n t h e  if  l a s t 40 y e a r s . The . f o r but  t r u t h o f t h e s t a t e m e n t c a n n o t be  i f i t i s time  vouched  i t i s a rather s t a r t l i n g f a c t . In  1930  t h e number o f c h i l d r e n I n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s u n d e r 10 y e a r s 2 4 , 0 5 1 , 9 9 9 . I n 1935  was  The  decrease i n the t o t a l elementary sohool enrolment i n the  t o 1 9 3 4 , 1.8 f r o m 1930 a r y and  t o 1932  p e r c e n t ; f r o m 1934  t o 1936,  4.2  per  was  0.7  per cent; from  t o 1936, By 1936  1.8  per cent  the t o t a l  1932 and  element-  s e c o n d a r y e n r o l m e n t showed a d e c r e a s e o f 67,000 b e l o w  the peak of  1935.^  A f a c t o r accounting for  cent.  e s t i m a t e d a t 22,340,000i  5  age  U n i t e d S t a t e s f r o m 1930  i t was  of  teachers  i n p a r t f o r t h e i n c r e a s e d demand  has b e e n t h e g r e a t e r p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e  a t t e n d i n g s c h o o l i n r e c e n t y e a r s . The o c c u r r e d f o r t h e age  g r o u p 10-19  children  greatest increase  years. Table V I I I gives  d a t a f o r Canada f o r t h e l a s t t h r e e c e n s u s  has the  years.  TABLE V I I I Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of S c h o o l Attendance of 5 t o 19 y e a r s Age-group  o f Age  Population  I n c l u s i v e , f o r Canada. 1911  1921  1931  58.69$ 68.61$ at s c h o o l 65.47$ 31.39 34.53 hot at school 41.31 58.79 10-19 y r s . 63.98 at s c h o o l 49.58 36.02 41.21 not at s c h o o l 50.42 65.59 5-19 y r s . 52.88 61.32 at s c h o o l 34.41 not at s c h o o l 47.12 38.67 14. Roy H e l t o n , " O l d P e o p l e : A R i s i n g N a t i o n a l P r o b l e m , " R e a d e r ' s D i g e s t XXXV, No..211, (November 1939, ).p.30. 15.. ''A c o u n t i n g o f Heads . " V a n c o u v e r D a i l y P r o v . Van.Oct .4/39. 16. P o p u l a t i o n T r e n d s and T h e i r E d u c a t i o n a l I m p T i c a t i o n s , pp.53-34. Washington: N a t i o n E d u c a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n , X V I N o . l 17. Canada Y e a r B o o k , o p . c i t . p . 1 6 2 . tJamaary_J ^38 . 5-9  years  !  JL  For B r i t i s h Columbia alone, t h e p o p u l a t i o n 5-19 s c h o o l was  years  approximately  i n 1931,  o f age 62.8  the percentage  of  i n c l u s i v e i n attendance at  per  c e n t , an amount somewhat  s m a l l e r t h a n f o r the whole of Canada. Tha* f a c t t h a t the school enrolment i n t h i s province  has  1931-38 f r o m 16,197 t o 22,582 a l t h o u g h f i g u r e s are  almost i d e n t i c a l ,  such a c o n c l u s i o n . (Table Having considered  gone up f o r t h e  period  the elementary  school  (97,717 t o 97,778) w o u l d  the changes i n s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n high  e n r o l m e n t , a t t e n d a n c e b y k e y g r a d e s , b i r t h r a t e and o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i t i s now  time to formulate  some  the problem i s  r e s u l t s a l l seem t o add up t o t h e same t h i n g , —  the e f f e c t  as y e t has  some y e a r s  t o come, u n l e s s  been s l i g h t  and p r o b a b l y  may  the  a long decline. This  c o n s i d e r a t i o n when p r e p a r i n g  While  w i l l be  the t r e n d i s reversed,  p o p u l a t i o n must u l t i m a t e l y b e g i n  t h e f u t u r e we  school dis-  t h e numbers o f c h i l d r e n h a v e a l r e a d y b e g u n t o d e c r e a s e .  important  from  age  c o n c l u s i o n s . I t m a t t e r s not from which angle attacked the  support  TV)  t h e p o i n t s o f v i e w o f t o t a l g r o w t h , e l e m e n t a r y and  tribution  high  long-term  so f o r school i s an  plans.  In  d e s i r e an i m p r o v e m e n t i n t h e q u a l i t y o f a l l  t h i n g s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e e d u c a t i o n a l system of B r i t i s h Columbia b u t we  s h a l l n o t n e e d i n t h e a g g r e g a t e any  t h a n we The  have at  quantity  present.  d e g r e e o f u r b a n i z a t i o n a f f e c t s t h e demand f o r t e a c h -  e r s because i t a l t e r s schools  greater  the r a t i o  of p u p i l s t o t e a c h e r s .  have a s m a l l e r r a t i o t h a n d t y s c h o o l s . Any  Rural  trend  71 t o w a r d s t h e - c i t y , therefor© i n c r e a s e s t h e a v e r a g e p u p i l teacher  r a t i o . The  is indicated  to  i n c r e a s e i n u r b a n i z a t i o n of B r i t i s h Columbia  b y T a b l e I X . I t has  t h e d e c a d e c e n t e r i n g a r o u n d 1921  continued  unabated except f o r  when t h e e x p a n s i o n o f a g r i -  c u l t u r e i n t h e Okanagan and F r a s e r V a l l e y s t e m p o r a r i l y r e v e r s ed t h e t r e n d . T a b l e IX g i v e s t h e d a t a f o r t h e c e n s u s  years  f r o m 1891  Canada.  t o 1931  i n c l u s i v e f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a and  I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a has movement c i t y w a r d s  except,  again, f o r  lead  the  1921.  TABLE I X P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f R u r a l and U r b a n P o p u l a t i o n  by /g  D e c a d e s , 1 8 9 1 - 1 9 3 1 , f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a and  B.  C.  Canada  1891  1901  1911  1921  1931  Rural Urban  62.08$ 37.92  49.52$ 50.48  48.10$ 51.90  52.81$ 47.19  43.14$ 56.82  Rural Urban  68.20 31.80  62.50 37.50  54.58 45.42  50.48 49.52  46.30 53.70  School  i n B r i t i s h Columbia are d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e classes-  - c i t y , m u n i c i p a l and the type  r u r a l . This  o f l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t and  c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s based i s closely related to  d e n s i t y of p o p u l a t i o n . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , sparsely populated, farming  Canada.  a r e a s and  municipalities, fairly  and  18.  Ibid.,  overlapping, s t i l l  p.150  are  well-populated  c i t i e s , compact c o m m u n i t i e s o f 1000  considerable  the  rural districts  t i o n or more. While t h e r e e x i s t c e r t a i n e x c e p t i o n s rules  on  to  populathese  the d i v i s i o n s  cannot  72 b© much m o r e ; p r e c i s e l y s t a t e d u n l e s s t h e p r o v i n c e were r e classified  on a b a s i s o f p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y o n l y . I t i s r a t h e r  amazing t o f i n d t h a t t h e r a t i o  of c h i l d r e n i n each  category  t o t h e t o t a l number o f c h i l d r e n has c h a n g e d b u t v e r y  little  i n t h e l a s t 26 y e a r s . Whereas t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e f r o m 51.90 p e r c e n t t o 56.82 p e r c e n t f r o m 1911 t o 1 9 3 1 , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t i n t h e c i t i e s d r o p p e d f r o m 57.60 p e r c e n t t o 57.25 p e r c e n t f r o m 1913 t o 1 9 3 9 . Two r e a s o n s  seem p o s s i b l e f o r t h i s  unexpect-  ed d i f f e r e n c e — e i t h e r t h e t r e n d t o t h e c i t i e s s u f f e r e d a r e v e r s a l a f t e r 1931, or t h e r e i s a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of c h i l d r e n t o a d u l t s i n t h e c o u n t r y , now t h a n f o r m e r l y . Table X p i c k s out f o u r evenly-spaced  intervals  t h e f i r s t ) t o show t h e a c t u a l numbers a n d p e r c e n t a g e attendance  (except of t o t a l  i n e a c h c l a s s o f s c h o o l . One r e m a i n i n g f a c t  f r o m an e x a m i n a t i o n  of the t a b l e . While  arises  the s c h o o l enrolment  a d v a n c e d b y 1000 i n t h e l a s t t e n y e a r s f o r a l l c i t y s c h o o l s , r u r a l a n d m u n i c i p a l s c h o o l s have r e g i s t e r e d g a i n s o f 5000 e a c h . In other words, p r a c t i c a l l y attendance urban  the e n t i r e increase i n school  i n t h e l a s t t e n y e a r s has o c c u r r e d i n o t h e r  areas.  On t h e b a s i s o f t o t a l e n r o l m e n t , 1900 t o 1910 t h e r a t i o approximately l a r g e r decrease it  than  d u r i n g t h e decade f r o m  of p u p i l s t o teacher dropped from  42 t o 3 8 .  The n e x t d e c a d e w i t n e s s e d  an e v e n  f r o m 38 t o 51 w h i l e f o r t h e l a s t two d e c a d e s  has h o v e r e d b e t w e e n 29 a n d 3 0 . As t h e r e a r e many s m a l l  s i n g l e - r o o m s c h o o l s o f f r o m 10 t o 30 p u p i l s i t i s o b v i o u s  t h a t t h e r e -are many c l a s s e s i n t h e c i t i e s c o n s i d e r a b l y above the  average. TABLE X  Distribution  o f School Enrolment I n B r i t i s h Columbia by  C l a s s e s f o r P o u r D i f f e r e n t Y e a r s i n A c t u a l Numbers a n d by Percentage of T o t a l . Year  Rural  Municipal  City  Total  1912-13  Number Percentage  10,853 18.84  13,573 23.56  33,182 57.60  57,608 100  1918-19  Number Percentage  13,241 18.39  17,869 24.86  40,896 56.77  72,006 100  1928-29  Number Percentage  20,777 18.96  20,535 18.74  68,246 62.29  109,558 100  1938-39  Number Percentage  25,306 20.92  25,860 21.39  69,219 57.25  120,934 100  T a b l e X I shows t h e number o f t e a c h e r s , e n r o l m e n t and ratio  of p u p i l s t o teacher  f o r the year  1937-38.  i n the various  classes of schools  I t i s a p p a r e n t f r o m t h i s t a b l e t h a t an  increase of school p o p u l a t i o n i n r u r a l d i s t r i c t s w i t h a small r a t i o o f o n l y 21 p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r s p o r t i o n a t e demand f o r new t e a c h e r s  produces a greater  t h a n d o e s t h e same i n c r e a s e  i n c i t i e s , one h u n d r e d a d d i t i o n a l p u p i l s i n r u r a l r e q u i r e f i v e new t e a c h e r s  pro-  areas would  b u t i n c i t i e s w o u l d g i v e employ-  ment t o b u t t h r e e . Any p r o n o u n c e d change i n t h i s  f a c t o r would, of  course,  a f f e c t t h e demand f o r t e a c h r e r s . I n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a h o w e v e r , •29.Annual R e p o r t s o f t h e P u b l i c S c h o o l s B r i t i s h Columbia".""op. c i t . 20. i b i d T  of  74 it  i s f a i r l y .well s t a n d a r d i z e d by the r e g u l a t i o n s of t h e  C o u n c i l o f P u b l i c I n s t r u c t i o n and deserves  but l i t t l e f u r t h e r  c o n s i d e r a t i o n . The P r o v i n c i a l Government w i l l towards s a l a r i e s  only pay grants  o f a c e r t a i n maximum number o f t e a c h e r s ,  this  maximum t o be d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t . I n e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l t h i s number i s b a s e d on 40 p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r . Any f r a c t i o n o f 40 i s a c c e p t e d  as i f i t were 4 0 , s o t h a t f e w s c h o o l s  a c t u a l l y have a r a t i o t h i s h i g h . S i m i l a r l y i n h i g h t h e number o f t e a c h e r s  schools  i s c a l c u l a t e d on a b a s i s o f 30 p u p i l s  p e r t e a c h e r s . T h e s e r e g u l a t i o n s have t e n d e d t o m a i n t a i n reasonable  u n i f o r m i t y and c o n s t a n c y  and w h i l e c e r t a i n  schools  o r c l a s s e s o f s c h o o l s may d e v i a t e c o n s i d e r a b l y f r o m t h e n o r m a l because t h e i r enrolments a r e d e c i d e d l y under o r j u s t o v e r 40 p u p i l s , s t i l l has b e e n l i t t l e  t a k i n g t h e p r o v i n c e as a w h o l e t h e r e  change i n t h e l a s t t w e n t y y e a r s . . TABLE X I  (a)  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Teachers and P u p i l s A c c o r d i n g Classes  o f Schools  and D i s t r i c t s ,  High schools High Schools  (cities) 463 (district m u n i c i p a l i t i e s )I29 High Schools ( r u r a l d i s t r i c t s ) 8 4 Superior Schools ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 22 Superior Schools (rural districts) 118 J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s ( c i t i e s ) 224  t o the Different  1937-38.  No. o f Grade Teachers  Schools  21. Victoria, 22. Columbia,  slightly  No. o f Special Instructors 113 30 13  Total  576 159 97 22  67  118 291  M a n u a l o f t h e S c h o o l Law f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , S e c t i o n 1 4 5 , (l9~3T"i Annual Reports of P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h o p . o l t . , y \. LXW/, /:>•*• 0  75 T a b l e X I (a*) ^ c o n t i n u e d . Schools  No.of Grade Teachers  Junior high schools (district municipalities) 28 Junior high schools(rural) 20 E l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s ( c i t i e s ] 1,171 Elementary schools (district municipalities) 535 Elementary schools (rural districts) 900 Community s c h o o l s 20 Totals 3.714  No. o f Special Instructors  Total  7 5 178  35 25 1289  23  558  2  90220 4,092  378  TABLE X I ( b ) Schools  No. o f Pupils Enrolled  Average Enrolment p e r Grade Teacher 35  16,420 High schools ( c i t i e s ) High schools ( d i s t r i c t municipalities) 4,380 High schools ( r u r a l 1,782 districts) Superior schools ( d i s t r i c t municipalities) 878 Superior schools (rural 3,137 districts) J u n i o r h i g h schools ( c i t i es)8,437 Junior high schools 1,051 (district municipalities) 676 Junior high schools ( r u r a l ) E l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s ( c i t i e s )44,392 Elementary schools ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 19,610 Elementary schools 19,075 (rural districts) 522 Community s c h o o l s 120.360 Totals Two t h i n g s s t a n d o u t i n t h i s load i n superior  Average Enrolment for A l l Teachers 28  34  27  21  18  40  40  27 38  27 29  38 34 38  30 27 34  36  35  21 26 32  21 26 29  t a b l e ; t h e heavy t e a c h i n g  s c h o o l s and t h e l i g h t  one i n r u r a l  schools,  76 both elementary  and h i g h . I t t a k e s 902 t e a c h e r s t o i n s t r u c t  19,075 p u p i l s i n r u r a l e l e m e n t a r y  s c h o o l s b u t o n l y 558 t o  t e a c h 19,610 c h i l d r e n i n m u n i c i p a l s c h o o l s , a d i f f e r e n c e o f 344 t e a c h e r s f o r a p p r o m i m a t e l y t h e same number o f p u p i l s . So f a r t h i s c h a p t e r has b e e n a n a t t e m p t  t o assess the  t o t a l demand f o r t e a c h e r s b o t h as t o i t s e x t e n t i n t h e p a s t and  as t o i t s p r o b a b l e  course  I n t h e f u t u r e . As many f a c t o r s  as p o s s i b l e have b e e n e x a m i n e d f o r c l u e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y a very important  one has t o be p a s s e d  by w i t h a b r i e f  because o f t h e l a c k of data; t h a t i s i m m i g r a t i o n . for  reference Vancouver,  t h e l a s t t h r e e o r f o u r y e a r s , i n r e g i s t e r i n g new p u p i l s  has made a r e c o r d o f g e o g r a p h i c a l o r i g i n s a n d has d i s c o v e r e d t h a t a b o u t 2 0 0 0 p u p i l s a n n u a l l y who a r e n o t n a t i v e t o Vancouver 900  are e n r o l l e d f o r the f i r s t  time; o f these b e t t e r than  a r e f r o m o t h e r p a r t s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . Thus a b o u t 1100  out o f t h e c i t y ' s 40,000 p u p i l s a r e I m m i g r a n t s t o t h e p r o v i n c e . I f Vancouver's experience two  and t h r e e p e r c e n t  i s a n y c r i t e r i o n , somewhere b e t w e e n  of t h e school p o p u l a t i o n of B r i t i s h  C o l u m b i a a n n u a l l y comes f r o m o u t s i d e t h e p r o v i n c i a l L a c k i n g more e x p l i c i t  information, the question w i l l  remain unsolved f o r t h e time  borders. have t o  being.  B e f o r e t h i s s e c t i o n i s b r o u g h t t o a c l o s e i t m i g h t be w o r t h w h i l e t o make one o r two q u o t a t i o n s f r o m a f i n a n c i l a journal.  23.Ibid  V o l . L X V I I I , p p . 56-57  77 "No q u e s t i o n a b o u t i t , t h e A m e r i c a n p o p u l a t i o n i s growing older--much t o t h e dismay o f t h e s t a t i s t i c i a n s . C h i l d r e n are g e t t i n g s c a r c e r , w h i l e t h e aged m u l t i p l y . " . " I n 1932 t h e r e w e r e more c h i l d r e n b e t w e e n t h e ages of 7 a n d 11 i n t h i s c o u n t r y (U.S.A.) t h a n t h e r e e v e r h a d b e e n b e f o r e - - o r l i k e l y e v e r w i l l be a g a i n . I n a f e w y e a r s t h e r e w i l l be a s i m i l a r p e a k o f p e r s o n s b e t w e e n t h e ages o f 20 and 24 Thus- t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f p e r s o n s o f v a r i o u s ages i n o u r p o p u l a t i o n i s c o n s t a n t l y c h a n g i n g , t o t h e d e t r i m e n t o f some i n d u s t r i e s a n d t h e good f o r t u n e o f o t h e r s . " And e a c h a g e - g r o u p , e x c e p t t h e v e r y h i g h e s t , w i l l e v e n t u a l l y reach a c r e s t , beyond which i t w i l l d e c l i n e . " "We have a l r e a d y p a s s e d one s u c h c r e s t - - t h a t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f 7 t o 11 y e a r s t h a t t o o k p l a c e b a c k i n 1932 and b y a s t r a n g e i r o n y t h a t y e a r b e g a n one o f t h e b i g g e s t s p u r t s new s c h o o l c o n s t r u c t i o n e v e r h a d . And p e r h a p s saw more g i r l s t r a i n i n g t o be t e a c h e r s t h a n we e v e r h a d b e f o r e i n o u r h i s t o r y . Somehow p e o p l e a r e t h a t w a y - - i n a n d o u t o f W a l l S t r e e t — t h e y a l w a y s want t o b u y a t t h e t o p o f t h e boom." "The p e a k o f t h e 20-24 age g r o u p i s s t i l l f i v e y e a r s a h e a d o f us ( 1 9 4 5 ) . T h o s e g i r l s w i l l f a c e a p a r t i c u l a r l y d i f f i c u l t t i m e . By t h e n , e v e r y one w i l l r e a l i z e t h a t s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n s a r e d e c l i n i n g , and so t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n w i l l v i r t u a l l y be c l o s e d f o r t h a t c r o p o f g i r l s . " ^ B. Number o f S e p a r a t i o n s . While i t i s important teachers in  t o know t h e t o t a l demand f o r  a n d t o be c o g n i s a n t  order t o secure  immediate concern  o f t h e changes i t i s u n d e r g o i n g ,  a l o n g v i e w , i t i s n e v e r t h e l e s s o f more t o know e x a c t l y how many new t e a c h e r s c a n  be p l a c e d i n t h e e n s u i n g  y e a r . T h i s a c t u a l demand  a l m o s t e n t i r e l y on t h e number o f v a c a n c i e s the y e a r by t e a c h e r s  created  hinges during  l e a v i n g the p r o f e s s i o n . Teachers  t r a n s f e r f r o m one s c h o o l o r p o s i t i o n t o a n o t h e r  who  do n o t c r e a t e  a demand. T h i s s e c t i o n t h e r e f o r e c o n s i s t s o f an i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the r a t e at which teachers withdraw from the p r o f e s s i o n .  24. F r e d H. S t e r n s , "New S i g n p o s t s f o r I n d u s t r y " . B a r r o n ' s , The N a t i o n a l F i n a n c i a l Weekly,,XX No. 9 ( F e b r u a r y 2 6 , 1 9 4 0 ) , p . 3.  78 As  has - a l r e a d y b e e n m e n t i o n e d (page 9) i t has b e e n  difficult of  t o secure, except  i n d i r e c t l y , any a d e q u a t e r e c o r d s  t h e number o f s e p a r a t i o n s p e r y e a r . Use i s h e r e made o f  i n f o r m a t i o n r e p o r t e d by t h e Commissioner o f t h e Teachers' P e n s i o n Fund.  T a b l e X I I g i v e t h e number o f c o n t r i b u t o r s ,  r e f u n d s and p e n s i o n s the pension's  granted per year since the i n a p t i o n of  scheme. The number o f s e p a r a t i o n s p e r y e a r i s  thus e q u a l t o t h e refunds p l u s pensions  granted. C e r t a i n i n -  accuracies are unavoidable. F i r s t , the pension's  year i s  c a l c u l a t e d as f r o m A p r i l 1 s t , t o t h e f o l l o w i n g M a r c h 3 1 s t . , and as the. s c h o o l y e a r r u n s f r o m J u l y 1st., t o June 3 0 t h . t h e two  intervals  o f t i m e a r e n o t c o n c u r r e n t . S i n c e , however t h e y  a r e e q u a l p e r i o d s o f t i m e no s e r i o u s e r r o r s c a n r e s u l t .  Second  t h e r e has a r i s e n ( f i r s t r e p o r t e d i n 1933-34) a f a i r l y l a r g e number o f n o n - a c t i v e a c c o u n t s  o f t e a c h e r s who a r e t e m p o r a r i l y  u n e m p l o y e d o r who have p e r m a n e n t l y l e f t  the teaching pro-  f e s s i o n . T h i s means o f c o u r s e t h a t t h e number o f r e f u n d s pensions  plus  i s l e s s t h a n t h e a c t u a l number o f s e p a r a t i o n s . As  t h e number o f n o n - a c t i v e a c c o u n t s  has r e m a i n e d i n t h e n e i g h -  b o r h o o d o f 300 s i n c e 1 9 3 3 - 3 4 , t h e number o f r e f u n d s  since  t h a t d a t e , h o w e v e r , r e p r e s e n t a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e c o r r e c t number of  w i t h d r a w a l s . The v a l u e s b e f o r e t h a t a r e t h e r e f o r e o b v i o u s l y  t o o l o w . A n d , t h i r d , t h e r e must be a f e w t e a c h e r s who taught  one y e a r , f a i l  having  t o reach the required standard of  e f f i c i e n c y and s o w i t h d r a w . T h e s e a r e n o t e n t i t l e d t o a n y r e f u n d and c o n s e q u e n t l y  t h e r e I s no r e c o r d o f t h e i r  P r o b a b l y some o f t h e n o n - a c t i v e a c c o u n t s  removal.  are a t t r i b u t a b l e t o  them. It of  h a d b e e n o r i g i n a l l y e x p e c t e d t h a t a t l e a s t t h e number  t e a c h e r s l e a v i n g e a c h y e a r c o u l d be g i v e n w i t h some p r e -  c i s i o n . T h i s hope has n o t b e e n r e a l i z e d - - t h e b e s t t h a t c a n be done a t t h i s t i m e i s t o a r r i v e a t an a p p r o x i m a t i o n . l e s s some s a t i s f a c t i o n i s f e l t  Neverthe-  i n t h a t e s s e n t i a l l y t h e same  r e s u l t s a r e s e c u r e d b y two a d d i t i o n a l d i f f e r e n t m e t h o d s , page 1 2 2 a n d 131 In  Table X I I i t w i l l  be n o t e d t h a t t h e f i r s t y e a r must  be r u l e d o u t as o b v i o u s l y i n c o m p l e t e . The number o f r e f u n d s g r a n t e d i n t h e l a s t n i n e y e a r s has t o t a l l e d 2,144, a n d t h e number o f p e n s i o n s  299. S i n c e t h e n o n - a c t i v e account  are not  c u m u l a t i v e t h e number o f s e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e same p e r i o d i s a p p a r e n t l y 2,445 p l u s 312 a g r a n d t o t a l of  of 2755--an average  306 p e r y e a r . One a b a s i s o f 4000 t e a c h e r s t h i s  represents  7s p e r c e n t . The number o f t e a c h e r s l e a v i n g on p e n s i o n has b e e n r e markably  constant u n t i l  t h e l a s t t h r e e y e a r s . Over t h e n i n e  y e a r p e r i o d i t has a v e r a g e d  34 p e r y e a r . I t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t  the next f i v e or s i x years w i l l  s e e 300 l e a v e on  retirement,°  iS  I f t h a t i s s o t h e r a t e must jump v e r y s h a r p l y t o a n a v e r a g e of  50 o r 60 p e r y e a r . I t s h o u l d be r e l a t i v e l y e a s y t o know how  many w i l l  be a t r e t i r e m e n t age f i v e o r s i x y e a r s hence b y  consulting the actual records. The number w i t h d r a w i n g  from the p r o f e s s i o n f o r reasons  o t h e r t h a n r e t i r e m e n t has f l u c t u a t e d c o n s i d e r a b l y - y e a r b y year.. 25.  "Teachers P l a n Pensions ( S e p t e m b e r 2 6 , 1939.)  Law", V a n c o u v e r D a l l y  Prov.  80 - i  TABLE X I I  Number o f C o n t r i b u t o r s , R e f u n d s a n d P e n s i o n s G r a n t e d , NonA c t i v e Accounts to  a n d S e p a r a t i o n s b y Y e a r s , f r o m A p r i l 1 s t , 1929  M a r c h 31 s t , 1939 Number o f Number o f C o n t r i b u t o r s Refunds Granted  Year  1929-30 3664 19 1930-31 3922 200 1931-32 200 4031 3907 1932-33 182 1933-34 3845 246 1934-35 3917 282 1935-36 3947 235 1936-37 4004 246 1937-38 4074 278 1938-39 4129 275 T o t a l s f o r 1930-39 i n c l u s i v e 12144  Number o f Number NonPensions of Sep- A c t i v e Granted arations Accts. 9 38 50 37 34 35 34 44 -25 22  28 238 230 219 280 317 269 290 303 297  299  2443  B e c a u s e s o many ( o v e r 3 0 0 ) do n o t s e c u r e t h e i r r e f u n d s  318 301 318 339 365 312  within  a r e a s o n a b l e t i m e i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o gauge t h e amount o f t h e f l u c t u a t i o n . The maximum v a r i a t i o n i s a b o u t Table  40,  (235-275;  XII.). In  c o n c l u d i n g t h i s s e c t i o n i t c a n be s t a t e d  that  a p p r o x i m a t e l y 300 v a c a n c i e s a r i s e e a c h y e a r . To d e t e r m i n e t h e number o f new t e a c h e r s t h a t m u s t b e p r e p a r e d i t i s o n l y n e c e s s a r y t o add t o o r s u b t r a c t f r o m t h e 300, any p o s i t i o n s c r e a t e d o r d e s t r o y e d b y c h a n g e s i n t h e e n r o l m e n t . T h i s w i l l be considered i n the next  section.  26. T e n t h A n n u a l R e p o r t , T e a c h e r s ' P e n s i o n s A c t , p . 7. V i c t o r i a , (1939)  C. A p p a r e n t Demand f o r New T e a c h e r s - - E x p a n s i o n  or Contraction  Plus Separations. T a b l e X I I I shows t h e i n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e of  i n t h e number  t e a c h e r s employed f o r each y e a r compared t o t h e p r e c e d i n g  y e a r . I t i s o f i n t e r e s t t o n o t e t h a t w h i l e t h e number o f t e a c h e r s i n c r e a s e b y 102 i n t h e l a s t y e a r t h e number o f p u p i l s o n l y i n c r e a s e d b y 5 7 4 . O b v i o u s l y t h e e x p a n d e d demand was b u t s l i g h t l y due t o a change I n t h e e n r o l m e n t .  Three  h u n d r e d a n d f o r t y new p o s i t i o n s have b e e n p r o d u c e d  i n the  l a s t n i n e y e a r s b e c a u s e o f t h e i n c r e a s e d demand, w h i c h i s an a v e r a g e o f 38 p e r y e a r . I t seems e x t r e m e l y d o u b t f u l w h e t h er  t h i s expansion  c a n c o n t i n u e much f u r t h e r i n t h e l i g h t o f  t h e d e c l i n i n g numbers o f c h i l d r e n . The  p a s t n i n e y e a r s have w i t n e s s e d as a r e s u l t o f a l l  f a c t o r s an a v e r a g e y e a r l y demand f o r 344 t e a c h e r s w h i c h i s a b o u t 8ijr p e r c e n t o f t h e t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l . As t h i s has a t no  t i m e a p p a r e n t l y e x c e e d e d 10 p e r c e n t i t must n o t have  d r o p p e d much b e l o w 7 p e r c e n t i n a n y p a r t i c u l a r It  w o u l d be f o o l i s h t o s u g g e s t  year.  t h a t t h e needs o f t h e  n e x t d e c a d e w i l l be t h e same a s t h o s e  of that just  past-  o n l y f u r t h e r and c o n t i n u e d s t u d y would r e v e a l i t s p r o b a b l e c o u r s e . N e v e r t h l e s s t h e dbhances t h a t t h e f u t u r e demand more n e a r l y r e s e m b l e eorrespons  will  the past are greater than that i t w i l l  t o a n y . random g u e s s .  TABLE X I I I D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e Demand f o r New T e a c h e r s Expansion  or C o n t r a c t i o n , Withdrawals  Created by  and R e t i r e m e n t s ,  1929-1939 I n c l u s i v e . *1  Year 1929-30 1930-31 1931-32 1932-33 1933-34 1934-35 1935-36 1936-37 1937-38 1938-39  Increase t or Decrease 70 94 11 -47 -39 .69 14 69 67 102  27.*Ibid. Annual Reports op. c i t .  b  Withdrawals 19 200 200 182 246 282 235 246 278 275  Retirements 9 38 30 37 34 35 34 44 25 22  of P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h  Demand 98 332 241 172 241 386 283 359 370 399  Columbia,  83 CHAPTER V Factors A f f e c t i n g the Supply Having  of  Teachers.  d i s c u s s e d a t some l e n g t h t h e p r o b l e m  o f demand  f o r new t e a c h e r s i t i s now n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r c e r t a i n o f the f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the s u p p l y . I n t h i s t h e r e appear t o be two p r i m e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s — t h e r e l a t i v e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of t e a c h i n g as a l i f e ' s entering  work a n d t h e o b s t a c l e s i n t h e way o f  it.  A. R e l a t i v e A t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f t h e T e a c h i n g P r o f e s s i o n . More i s b e i n g done t o d a y t h a n e v e r b e f o r e t o d i r e c t young p e o p l e importance  i n t o promising channels  of a c t i v i t y .  Greater  i s b e i n g a t t a c h e d t o t h e s u i t a b i l i t y of t h e young  p e r s o n f o r t h e t y p e o f work he has e l e c t e d t o f o l l o w . I n s p i t e o f t h e f a c t t h a t s e l e c t i n g a v o c a t i o n has become more d e l i b e r a t e and i n t e l l i g e n t people their  i tis still  t r u e t h a t most y o u n g  c h o o s e what a p p e a r s t o be t h e b e s t o c c u p a t i o n  within  reach. Opportunities i n other f i e l d s  o f work a r e r e f l e c t e d i n  t h e number o f t h o s e who d e c i d e t o t a k e up t e a c h i n g . When o t h e r t r a d e s a n d p r o f e s s i o n s seem p r o s p e r o u s  and p r o g r e s s i v e o n l y  t h o s e who i n s t i n c t i v e l y l i k e t o t e a c h o r t h o s e who a r e u n a b l e t o compete s u c c e s s f u l l y f o r t h e more d e s i r a b l e o c c u p a t i o n s e l e c t t o take a course  i n t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g , b u t when t h e r e i s  a p e r i o d o f e c o n o m i c d i f f i c u l t i e s many c a p a b l e s t u d e n t s t u r n to the apparent  s e c u r i t y and r e l a t i v e p r o s p e r i t y o f t h e  t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n . Jobs r u t h l e s s l y as w o r k e r s  compete f o r w o r k e r s  f o r jobs.  almost  as  84 One o f t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s I n v o l v e d i n c h o o s i n g an o c c u p a t i o n b r i n g s a r o u n d t h e p r o b l e m o f permanency,, C e r t a i n types  o f work a r e spasmodic.  l a c k of continuous  C i v i l engineering s u f f e r s from  employment; b r i d g e a n d r o a d - b u i l d i n g and  other c o n s t r u c t i o n jobs o c c u r r i n g i n t e r m i t t e n t l y . by c o n t r a s t g i v e s s t e a d y Teaching  Teaching  employment.  has s u f f e r e d i n t h e p a s t a n d s t i l l  does, i n  c e r t a i n s e c t i o n s o f t h e country because of the p e c u l i a r r e l a t i o n s e x i s t i n g b e t w e e n t e a c h e r s and t h e c o m m u n i t i e s i n w h i c h they l i v e . ity  Teachers f i n d themselves  saddled with a m u l t i p l i c -  o f m a s t e r s - - i n s p e c t o r s , s c h o o l b o a r d s a n d p a r e n t s . The  necessity of s a t i s f y i n g a l l frequently results i n pleasing n o n e . As a c o n s e q u e n c e t e a c h e r s have b e e n s u b j e c t e d t o a f o r m o f t y r a n n y n o t common t o o t h e r t r a d e s a n d p r o f e s s i o n s . I n B r i t i s h Columbia t h i s  has b e e n r e c t i f i e d b y r e g u l a t i o n s  e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e s e c u r i t y o f t e n u r e t o t e a c h e r s . They can o n l y be d i s m i s s e d now f o r v a l i d r e a s o n s  a n d an o u t s i d e  b u n a l p a s s e s upon t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e s e  reasons.  tri-  S a l a r i e s a l s o come i n f o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . The f i n a n c i a l r e w a r d s f r o m a n o c c u p a t i o n must have some r e l a t i o n b o t h t o the investment  i n v o l v e d i n equipping  one's s e l f and a l s o t o  t h e r e t u r n s t h a t c o u l d be s e c u r e d b y e q u a l e f f o r t a n d a b i l i t y in  other v o c a t i o n s . While  salaries  i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a have  d r o p p e d c o n s i d e r a b l y s i n c e 1929 p a r t i c u l a r l y I n c e r t a i n s e c t i o n s o f t h e p r o v i n c e i t i s d o u b t f u l whether t h e g e n e r a l decrease  has b e e n g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t s u f f e r e d b y most  o c c u p a t i o n s . However t h e r e m u n e r a t i o n s  other  cannot f a l l b e l o w an  accepted l e v e l f o r any l e n g t h o f time without s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t ing  the morale of a c t i v e teachers  and r e d u c i n g  numbers a n d q u a l i t y o f t h e p r o s p e c t i v e  both the  teachers.  • A l t h o u g h t h e income d e r i v e d f r o m a p a r t i c u l a r v o c a t i o n is  of r e a l importance i t i s not t h e only c o n s i d e r a t i o n . S o c i a l  p r e s t i g e i s almost e q u a l l y potent i n a t t r a c t i n g d e s i r a b l e r e c r u i t s . Any o c c u p a t i o n  t h a t i s h e l d i n h i g h esteem by t h e ,  p u b l i c g e n e r a l l y has a n e x t r a o r d i n a r y power o f a t t r a c t i o n . The  status  of the teaching  p r o f e s s i o n has u n d o u b t e d l y  ed s i n c e t h e d a y s o f t h e i t i n e r a n t t e a c h e r . ever,  that teachers  them t o t h e c r i t i c a l  The f a c t , how-  a r e p a i d from t h e p u b l i c funds eye o f t h e p u b l i c .  improv-  subjects  Furthermore t h e  r e s u l t s o f t h e i r s e r v i c e s a r e somewhat I n t a n g i b l e a n d t h e r e f o r e many u n t h i n k i n g  people conclude that they  l i t t l e t o t h e common w e a l . T h e s e c o n d i t i o n s able  i n smaller  contribute  a r e more n o t i c e -  communities. F o r these reasons teachers i n  some c o m m u n i t i e s do n o t r e c e i v e t h e a p p r o b a t i o n a n d appreciation t o which they are e n t i t l e d . Once a g a i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a has w i t n e s s e d a d v a n c e t h a n most o f t h e p r o v i n c e s and  a c t i v e teachers.'  standards, proving  i nthis  organization, higher  greater rights f o r teachers,  the p u b l i c respect  f o r teachers  been accomplished i n t h i s p r o v i n c e  respect. A  strong  professional  a l l seem t o be i m as a c l a s s . Much has  and elsewhere t o l a y t h e  g h o s t o f t h e o l d pedagogne b y t h e h e e l s done b e f o r e  a greater  t h e i d e a l atmosphere w i l l  b u t more must be  have b e e n a t t a i n e d .  W h i l e no one w a n t s , n o r w o u l d i t be s a l u t o r y t o s e c u r e ,  86 f a w n i n g a d u l a t i o n ; a s i n c e r e a p p r e c i a t i o n o f t e a c h i n g and teachers the  i s n e c e s s a r y i f t h e b e s t t a l e n t i s t o be drawn i n t o  profession. A n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n I s t h e r e l a t i o n between  the  initial  and f i n a l p o s i t i o n s one may o c c u p y i n a g i v e n  p r o f e s s i o n . What hope i s t h e r e f o r advancement a n d on what b a s i s i s t h i s p r o m o t i o n c a r r i e d o u t ? To p r o s p e c t i v e it  i s obvious that while  some t e a c h e r s  teachers  do f r o m t i m e t o t i m e  a d v a n c e t o b e t t e r p o s i t i o n s as o p p o r t u n i t i e s  afford, i t Is  a h a p h a z a r d a n d u n c e r t a i n p r o c e s s and i n some c a s e s  unrelated  e i t h e r t o a b i l i t y o r y e a r s o f s e r v i c e b u t due s o l e l y t o fortuitous teaching  circumstances.  I t w o u l d seem t h a t t h e v a l u e s  as an o c c u p a t i o n  w o u l d be g r e a t l y  of  'enhanced i s some  scheme o f p r o m o t i o n s on a p r o v i n c e - w i d e b a s i s was e s t a b l i s h e d . Young t e a c h e r s  could then look forward w i t h a reasonable  d e g r e e o f c e r t a i n i t y t o a d a y when t h e y m i g h t a d v a n c e t o more i m p o r t a n t p o s i t i o n s a n d be c o n t e n t t o know t h a t i f t h e y a r e g i v i n g s a t i s f a c t o r y s e r v i c e t h e y have b u t t o a w a i t t h e i r  turn.  S u c h a p l a n w o u l d i n v o l v e , h o w e v e r , a change i n t h e p r e s e n t s e t - u p . The c o n t r o l o f t h e t e a c h i n g  b o d y , now d i v i d e d among  a l a r g e number o f s e m i - a u t o n o m o u s g o v e r n i n g b o d i e s , have t o b e c o m p l e t e l y  would  centralized.  No f a c t o r c a n be s i n g l e d o u t as t h e a l l - i m p o r t a n t one i n c h o o s i n g a v o c a t i o n , b u t as i n e v e r y t h i n g  e l s e some a t t e m p t  i s made t o s e c u r e t h e optimum r e s u l t - - t h e l a r g e s t i n c o m e , t h e most p o p u l a r o c c u p a t i o n , with the d i f f i c u l t i e s  the greatest  s e c u r i t y commensurate  i n v o l v e d i n g a i n i n g a d m i s s i o n . Each  87 p r o s p e c t i v e C a n d i d a t e has: t o e v a l u a t e a d v a n t a g e s i n t e r m s o f h i s own  t h e a d v a n t a g e s and  I d e a l s and  r e s u l t a n t of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  o f one  a s p i r a t i o n s . The  o c c u p a t i o n must com-  pare f a v o r a b l y w i t h that of a l l other p o s s i b l e choices secure  r e c r u i t s . T e a c h i n g c a n o n l y draw t o i t s r a n k s  r e q u i r e d number and k i n d o f new t a i n s a favorable balance a b s o l u t e but  B.  dis-  teachers  to  the  as l o n g as i t m a i n -  o f good q u a l i t i e s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y  i n a l l events r e l a t i v e to other  occupations.  Requirements of the T e a c h i n g P r o f e s s i o n . Having considered  s u p p l y f r o m the p o i n t of v i e w  d e s i r a b i l i t y o f a p a r t i c u l a r v o c a t i o n i t i s now examine i t f r o m the o p p o s i t e  necessary  a t t a i n e d by p r o s p e c t i v e  teachers.  A l l these  standards  Satisfactory health,  g o o d p h y s i c a l , m e n t a l and m o r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e concomitants.  to  s i d e - - t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s demanded  b y t h e v o c a t i o n . C e r t a i n a c a d e m i c and p r o f e s s i o n a l must be  of  necessary  c o n d i t i o n s a c t as a b a r r i e r t o  any  u n l i m i t e d numbers. I n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a t h e r e has  been, along w i t h  places  e l s e w h e r e , a g r a d u a l but p e r s i s t e n t i n c r e a s e i n the  standards  set f o r admission  time I t  was  t o t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n . A t one  p o s s i b l e to secure  o n l y two  years'  1922.  U n t i l 1937  those  who  had  a Third Class teaching c e r t i f i c a t e  h i g h s c h o o l t r a i n i n g . T h i s was  abolished i n  S e c o n d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s were g r a n t e d  c o m p l e t e d h i g h s c h o o l , and  with  normal school.  to Now  t h e minimum a c a d e m i c t r a i n i n g i s S e n i o r M a t r i c u l a t i o n w h i c h entitles  one  to t r a i n f o r a F i r s t  Class c e r t i f i c a t e ;  lower  c e r t i f i c a t e s b e i n g no  l o n g e r i s s u e d . Because of the  i n h i g h school courses t r a i n i n g has since  from three t o f o u r years  thus expanded from t e n t o t h i r t e e n  increase  the  academic  years  1922. S i m i l a r l y t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g has  b y l e n g t h e n i n g t h e n o r m a l s c h o o l y e a r and  been I n c r e a s e d  by a d d i n g  two  c o m p u l s o r y summer s e a s o n s . Careful medical  examinations,  intelligencer tests  and  c h a r a c t e r r a t i n g s have a l l i n c r e a s e d t h e p o w e r o f s a l u t i o n  by  the t e a c h e r - t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s . The  requirements  i n p o i n t of time  and  p r o f e s s i o n s except A l l this  f o r Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s areon a standards  w i t h those  of n e a r l y a l l the  medicine.  indicates the increasing d i f f i c u l t i e s  p l a c e d i n the paths of p o s s i b l e candidates. f e w e r who supply  c a n m e a s u r e up  has  par  decreased.  t o t h e new  Any  being  Since there  requirements  the  are  potential  p r o g r e s s i v e s c h o o l system n a t u r a l l y  t r i e s t o s e l e c t as . r i g o r o u s l y as p o s s i b l e a l w a y s r a i s i n g standards  as h i g h as p e r m i s s i b l e c o n s o n a n t w i t h an  the  adequate  supply. In c o n c l u s i o n , the supply governed by  the balance  of t e a c h e r s  s t r u c k by c h e c k i n g  wards o f t e a c h i n g t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s  i s rather nicely against the r e -  of e n t e r i n g i t .  If for  example i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e n t e r some o t h e r v o c a t i o n w i t h g r e a t e r e f f o r t and  r e c e i v e more i n r e t u r n b y so d o i n g ,  teaching w i l l f a i l  t o a t t r a c t a s a t i s f a c t o r y number and  e i t h e r lower  i t s standard  or increase i t advantages.  no  then must  89 C e r t a i n i n v e s t i g a t o r s have come t o t h e page 106) if  t h a t i n s t e a d of a s u r p l u s of teachers  adequate standards  had b e e n m a i n t a i n e d  have b e e n a v e r y d e c i d e d The  conclusion(see  next  chapter  there would  actually  shortage.  ( V l ) w i l l d e a l w i t h a survey of  a c t u a l s u p p l y o f t e a c h e r s as i t has Columbia f o r the l a s t  i n the p a s t ,  the  existed i n British  seventeen years.  90 ' s  CHAPTER V I  A S t a t i s t i c a l Examination  o f t h e Supply of Teachers.  A. T h e Number o f T e a c h i n g C e r t i f i c a t e s I t i s impossible t o determine  Issued.  with absolute accuracy  what t h e p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y o f t e a c h e r s a t a n y one t i m e m i g h t b e . To t h o s e n e w l y g r a d u a t e d must b e a d d e d a n y s u r p l u s f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r o r two who have n o t i n t h e meantime become e s t a b l i s h e d i n some o t h e r v o c a t i o n o r who t h o u g h w o r k i n g a r e still  d e s i r o u s o f t e a c h i n g , p l u s t h o s e who f o r v a r i o u s  reasons  may d e s i r e t o r e t u r n a f t e r a l a p s e o f some y e a r s . N o t h i n g short of a c a r e f u l examination of a l l c e r t i f i c a t e s i n f o r c e , the e l i m i n a t i o n of the c e r t i f i c a t e s  of those at present  t e a c h i n g o r o t h e r w i s e d e f i n i t e l y o c c u p i e d o r dead and a canvass  of t h e remaining c e r t i f i c a t e holders c o u l d determine  p e r f e c t a c c u r a c y how many p e o p l e  with  i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a m i g h t be  considered. As t h i s  i s q u i t e beyond t h e r e s o u r c e s o f t h i s  study,  s u p p l y i s t a k e n t o be t h e number o f t e a c h e r s p r e p a r e d year i n r e l a t i o n it  i spossible  t o t h e demand o f t h a t y e a r . B y t h i s  t o approximate  t h e accumulated  each method  surplus although  a l l o w a n c e m u s t b e made f o r t h e f a c t t h a t a g i v e n s u r p l u s t e n d s t o d i m i n i s h w i t h t i m e , due t o m a r r i a g e , t r a n s f e r t o o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n s a n d d e a t h . O n l y as y e a r l y s u r p l u s e s c o n t i n u e t o mount c a n t h e r e e v e r b e a v e r y l a r g e a c c u m u l a t e d s u r p l u s ; At present three i n s t i t u t i o n s amount o f p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g  give future teachers the  r e q u i r e d by the C o u n c i l of  91 P u b l i c i n s t r u c t i o n . These a r e t h e P r o v i n c i a l Normal  Schools  at V i c t o r i a and Vancouver and t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . The n o r m a l s c h o o l s c o n f i n e t h e m s e l v e s whose a c a d e m i c s t a n d i n g o n l y p e r m i t s First,  them t o t r y f o r t h e  Second o r T h i r d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s  clusively First  Class).  t o those  ( s i n c e 1937 e x -  The U n i v e r s i t y p r e p a r e s  f o r t h e Academic c e r t i f i c a t e . A t p r e s e n t  i t s graduates  only those  teachers  h o l d i n g an Academic c e r t i f i c a t e a r e p e r m i t t e d t o t e a c h i n high schools, with the exception of certain S p e c i a l i s t s , but no s u c h r e s t r i c t i o n s a r e i n f o r c e f o r e l e m e n t a r y Consequently  schools.  any s u r p l u s o f t e a c h e r s w i t h Academic  C o n s t i t u t e a p o r t i o n of the supply f o r elementary  certificates schools.  T a b l e X I V g i v e s t h e number o f s u c c e s s f u l c a n d i d a t e s b y institutions  a n d s e x f o r e a c h y e a r s i n c e 1 9 2 2 . The t e a c h e r  t r a i n i n g course 1923.  a t t h e u n i v e r s i t y was n o t e s t a b l i s h e d tint 11  F o r t h e l a s t t h r e e y e a r s V a n c o u v e r , i n r e p o r t i n g , has  lumped t h e sexes  together so that t h e values appearing  i n the  t a b l e a r e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women a n d men. F i g u r e 4 shows g r a p h i c a l l y t h e same r e s u l t s e x c e p t  that the  t o t a l i s omitted. An e x a m i n a t i o n  o f F i g u r e 4 shows t h a t t h e number o f  women a t t e n d i n g t h e N o r m a l S c h o o l s h a s s u f f e r e d a more o r l e s s s t e a d y d e c l i n e w h i l e t h e number o f men has b e e n  remarkably  u n i f o r m . By c o n t r a s t t h e enrolment a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y has fluctuated very l i t t l e  I n t h e 16 y e a r s  o f i t s e x i s t e n c e and  t h e r a t i o o f women t o men has b e e n a l m o s t out t h a t  time.  constant  through-  92 TABLE X I V . Distribution of Certificates and  S e x , 1922-39  Inclusive.  Vancouver , Norma]  Year  Women 1922-23 1923-24 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27 1927-28 1928-29 1929-30 1930-31 1931-32 1932-33 1933-34 1934-35 1935-36 1936-37 1937-38 1938-39 •  297 277 229 195 144 158 134 163 175 141 155 122 104 123 78 57 77  Issued Each Year, by I n s t i t u t i o n s  Men 84 56 49 39 26 37 22 26 52 58 56 52 37 52 41* 27* 32*  Victoria , Normal Women Men 187 225 199 129 100 118 108 104 97 80 '73 66 51 46 40 47 43  67 40 39 31 24 36 29 23 49 40 58 56 22 28 19 18 24  University o f B . C. Women  Men  — #" 35 32 35 36 39 45 45 49 67 44 38 43 34 27 , 33 38  -^Distribution by sex estimated  Total  16 16 20 28 19 16 19 21 37 20 21 23 26 14 32 17  635 649 564 ' 449 358 407 354 380 443 423 406 335 280 309 219 214 231  # Not i n operation  I f t h e s u p p l y o f t e a c h e r s h a d c o n t i n u e d t o be p r o d u c e d at t h e r a t e o c c u r r i n g i n the years  1922-24 t h e 3000 t e a c h e r s  of t h a t time c o u l d have been e n t i r e l y r e p l a c e d i n t h e v e r y short p e r i o d of f i v e years  o r t h e p r e s e n t number o f 4000  t e a c h e r s i n about seven y e a r s . F o r t h e e i g h t - y e a r p e r i o d from 1925-33 t h e o u t p u t  o f t e a c h e r s a v e r a g e d about 400 p e r y e a r .  1. A n n u a l R e p o r t s o f P u b l i c S c h o o l s o f B r i t i s h Columbian o p . b i t . 2. A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a V a n c o u v e r . P r i v a t e L e t t e r , November 2 7 , 1 9 3 9 .  y Wo  Si  BC  f  ner ---  3o°  o  —f  --• — -  He  -O  ,'' n  5oo •  loin71 ci  -J-)  So  >  N  *  3oo  -  O  2. ncoi  3.oO  H  /5~~0 s. me) \  \  •\  \  •)  Me  \  SO  -» ' *  •<  •S  -  • *  O f  ?  s  1  I. h  Years Pig.  4. D i s t r i b u t i o n  of C e r t i f i c a t e s  Issued Each  Y e a r b y Sex a t t h e T h r e e I n s t i t u t i o n s , Inclusive.  1922-39  94 A t t h a t rat©' a l l t h e p r e s e n t  teachers  c o u l d be r e p l a c e d i n  f r o m e i g h t t o t e n y e a r s . I n o t h e r words d u r i n g t h a t p e r i o d enough t e a c h e r s  were p r e p a r e d  eight-year  t o replace the entire  t e a c h i n g b o d y . However, 1936-39 has s e e n t h e numbers d r o p t o a b o u t 2 0 0 new t e a c h e r s t a k e 20 y e a r s . ates  p e r year  In medicine,  i n Canada e a o h y e a r  doctors  and a t t h a t r a t e i t would  b y c o m p a r i s o n t h e number o f g r a d u -  i s s u f f i c i e n t t o r e p l a c e t h e 10,000  o f 1931 i n 20 t o 25 y e a r s . S i m i l a r l y i n d e n t i s t r y i t  w o u l d r e q u i r e 40 t o 50 y e a r s , i n p h a r m a c y 20 t o 2 5 y e a r s , a n d i n l a w a b o u t 35 y e a r s  f o r t h e graduates t o replace the present 3  members o f e a c h p r o f e s s i o n . I n 1935 t h e m e d i a n y e a r s perience  f o r a l l classes of teachers  approximately  10.5.  Therefore  s u f f i c i e n t new t e a c h e r s  i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a was  i t w o u l d seem n e c e s s a r y  graduate each year  e n t i r e t e a c h i n g body i n something l i k e large rate of turnover  B.  t o have  to replace the  10 t o 12 y e a r s .  This  i s due a l m o s t e n t i r e l y t o t h e l a r g e  p r o p o r t i o n o f women a n d i s a p p a r e n t l y distinct  o f ex-  characteristics  one o f t h e i n h e r e n t a n d  of the teaching profession.  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f New T e a c h e r s b y Sex a n d C e r t i f i c a t e . As  already indicated there  has b e e n a p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y  g r e a t e r d e c r e a s e i n t h e a t t e n d a n c e o f women t h a n ofmen a t t h e normal s c h o o l s . This  combined w i t h t h e g r e a t e r r a t e o f t u r n -  o v e r o f women t e a c h e r s  has g r a d u a l l y I n c r e a s e d  the proportion  o f men i n t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n . 3. S u p p l y a n d Demand i n t h e P r o f e s s i o n s I n C a n a d a , o p . c i t . p p . 11-16  95 E x c e p t f o r two o c c a s i o n s  t h e n o r m a l s c h o o l s have n o t  r e p o r t e d t h e number o f e a c h c l a s s o f c e r t i f i c a t e s Third Class c e r t i f i c a t e s C l a s s i n 1937. First  were e l i m i n a t e d i n 1922 a n d Second  However d u r i n g t h a t i n t e r v a l  and Second Class candidates  (1922-37) b o t h  were p r e p a r e d .  F o r the two  y e a r s , 1927-29, V i c t o r i a tribution  Normal S c h o o l r e p o r t e d 1 o f c e r t i f i c a t e s as f o l l o w s : First Women 55 58  1927- 28 1928- 39  I f those  Class Men 20 17  the d i s -  Second Class Women , Men 63 16 50 12  t w o y e a r s were i n a n y way t y p i c a l  a p p e a r t h a t t h e two c l a s s e s o f c e r t i f i c a t e s equal  issued.  i t would  were  approximately  i n number. The m a r k e d r e d u c t i o n i n t h e number o f t e a c h e r s  being prepared  i n t h e l a s t t w o o r t h r e e y e a r s may t h u s be  l a r g e l y due t o t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f S e c o n d C l a s s  certificates.  Far from being able t o s e l e c t the best s e n i o r m a t r i c u l a t i o n students to  accept  as p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s , t h e n o r m a l s c h o o l s have h a d those  to m a i n t a i n  having  tons;(oro^twoour  supplementals  a n y s e m b l a n c e o f t h e i r f o r m e r numbers.  Apparently  i n order -5  t h i s p r o v i n c e f a c e s the problem o f s e c u r i n g  4. A n n u a l R e p o r t s o f P u b l i c S c h o o l s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , op . c l t . 5. A p p l i c a n t s a r e a d m i t t e d i n a c e r t a i n o r d e r , U n i v e r s i t y graduates f i r s t , then holders of Senior M a t r i c u l a t i o n , then holders of the equivalent of Senior M a t r i c u l a t i o n . I f there a r e s t i l l v a c a n c i e s when t h e above a p p l i c a n t s h a v e b e e n a c c e p t ed c o n s i d e r a t i o n w i l l be g i v e n to. s t u d e n t s w i t h one o r t w o s u p p l e m e n t a l . Number o f students"" 194© w i t h s u p o l e m e n t a l s i s 19. ( P r i v a t e l e t t e r from the P r i n c i p a l o f the Vancouver Normal, A p r i l 1 9 , 1940.) A  96 an a d e q u a t e s u p p l y o f new t e a c h e r s on t h e b a s i s o f p r e s e n t qualifications  and r e w a r d s .  I t w o u l d seem t h a t u n l e s s t e a c h -  i n g as a p r o f e s s i o n c a n be made more d e s i r a b l e a n d hence a t t r a c t more c a n d i d a t e s a n d u n l e s s t h e gap b e t w e e n demand and  supply i s f u r t h e r reduced by i n c r e a s i n g the average  l e n g t h o f s e r v i c e t h e r e w o u l d c o n t i n u e t o be a s h o r t a g e o f new t e a c h e r s . The o n l y a l t e r n a t i v e i s t o l o w e r t h e s t a n d a r d s . T h e r e has b e e n a m a r k e d i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s from a p p r o x i m a t e l y 8 p e r cent o f the t o t a l I n 1924 t o 24 p e r c e n t i n 1 9 3 9 . F u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e changing p r o p o r t i o n s of sex and c e r t i f i c a t e s w i l l  be p o s t p o n e d  till  Chapter V I I .  C. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A c a d e m i c C e r t i f i c a t e s b y M a j o r  Subjects.  T a b l e XV shows t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e m a j o r s u b j e c t s r e q u i r e d f o r an A c a d e m i c c e r t i f i c a t e . O r d i n a r i l y e a c h  student  i s r e q u i r e d t o q u a l i f y i n two m a j o r s u b j e c t t a u g h t i n h i g h s c h o o l . O c c a s i o n a l l y some q u a l i f y i n t h r e e , hence t h e t o t a l number o f m a j o r s  (2058) i s 88 more t h a n t w i c e t h e number o f  successful candidates  (985).  The numbers m a j o r i n g whole remarkably  i n e a c h s u b j e c t have b e e n on t h e  constant i n s p i t e of the year t o year  f l u c t u a t i o n s . E n g l i s h , H i s t o r y a n d F r e n c h have a c c o u n t e d f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y two t h i r d s o f t h e t o t a l a n d M a t h e m a t i c s a n d the Sciences f o r another jects  q u a r t e r . O b v i o u s l y t h e v a r i o u s sub-  have n o t b e e n p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l p r o p o r t i o n e d . A n y m a l -  adjustments,  h o w e v e r , w h i c h m i g h t have a r i s e n have b e e n  97 !  TABLE XV  D i s t r i b u t i o n by Years Completing  the Teacher T r a i n i n g Course, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h  C o l u m b i a , 1923-39 Year  of Major S u b j e c t s , of a l l Students  Inclusive.  E n g . H i s t . F r e n c h L a t i n Germ. Maths > P h y s . Chem B o t . Agr  1923-24 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27 1927-28 1928-29 1929-30 1930-31 1931-32 1932-33 1933-34 1934-35 1935-36 1936-37 1937-38 1938-39 Average  37 41 26 38 40 44 37 42 59 33 30 36 31 25 35 37  30 28 31 28 25 29 27 31 35 23 21 25 17 17 19 23 SB*. 4  22 21 14 21 25 19 22 28 32 19 21 20 23 16 16 20 21.-2  Total 591 -106 339 G r a n d T o t a l 2,958 Percentage of T o t a l I 28.72 19.73 16.47  13 11 5 8 12 8 14 11 21 16 15 23 11 5 7 7 "TCT7 187  9.08  3 2 4 9  20 15 22 18 15 11 15 20 26 19 13 13 13 7 17 8 1577  7 2 5 11 8 5 12 7 22 8 8 10 12 4 11 8 8.7  252  140  12.25 6.80  12 6 7 4 5 4 1 1 7 8 6 5 7 3 12 2 576~  4" 1  Bio. 6 2 4 0 5 2 13 1 374"  90 38  4.37  1 0 5 0 6  1.84  l a r g e l y e f f a c e d b y t h e f a c t t h a t i n many o f t h e s m a l l e r h i g h schools, teachers  have had t o t e a c h s u b j e c t f o r w h i c h i n a  s e n s e t h e y were n o t a c a d e m i c a l l y p r e p a r e d .  Frequently i n time,  t h e y have become v e r y p r o f i c i e n t i n t h e a d o p t e d c o u r s e s . A l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f women t a k e L a n g u a g e s a n d H i s t o r y t h a n study Mathematics or Science  and t h e r e s u l t i n g g r e a t e r t u r n -  6. A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , op. c i t .  98 o v e r i n t h e s e has a l s o a s s i s t e d i n p r e v e n t i n g t o o much m i s alignment. The p r o p e r d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s u b j e c t s c a n o n l y be d e t e r m i n e d b y a k n o w l e d g e o f t h e number o f p u p i l s t a k i n g a s u b j e c t , t h e number o f p e r i o d s p e r week a s s i g n e d t o I t a n d t h e r e l a t i v e number o f t e a c h e r s w i t h d r a w i n g .  (French teachers are g e n e r a l l y  women a n d P h y s i c s t e a c h e r s men, t h e r e f o r e t h e r a t e o f t u r n o v e r i s g r e a t e r among F r e n c h  teachers.)  Some o f t h e s e p o i n t s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d I n t h e n e x t section. D. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f P u p i l s A c c o r d i n g t o S u b j e c t s T a k e n . "The number o f h i g h s c h o o l p u p i l s t a k i n g e a c h s u b j e c t and t h e number o f s u b j e c t s t a k e n , f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 3 7 - 3 8 , were as f o l l o w s : E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n , 2 5 , 5 8 2 ; E n g l i s h L i t e r a t u r e , 21,667; E n g l i s h Grammar, 1 7 , 3 7 5 ; S o c i a l S t u d i e s , 1 9 , 7 1 9 ; G e o g r a p h y , 3,327; G e n e r a l M a t h e m a t i c s , 5,517; A l g e b r a , 1 3 , 1 6 1 ; Geometry,' 1 3 , 0 7 6 ; T r i g o n o m e t r y , 7 9 6 ; G e n e r a l S c i e n c e , 9,602; C h e m i s t r y , 6,315; A g r i c u l t u r e , 2 7 8 ; P h y s i c s , 2,429; B o t a n y , 586; L a t i n , 3,884; F r e n c h , 1 2 , 6 7 5 ; German, 2 0 9 ; A r t , 2,612; Home E c o n o m i c s A, 6 1 3 ; Home E c o n o m i c s B, 6 3 9 ; Home E c o n o m i c s C, 1,799; Woodwork, 3,443; M e c h a n i c a l D r a w i n g , 1,756; S h e e t M e t a l , 8 3 4 ; M a c h i n e Shop Work, 1,397; J u n i o r B u s i n e s s , 1,940; B o o k k e e p i n g , 2,433; A c c o u n t i n g P r a c t i c e , 6 0 6 ; S h o r t h a n d , 3 4 8 1 ; T y p i n g , 4 , 3 2 3 ; B u s i n e s s A r i t h m e t i c , 2,363; B u s i n e s s E n g l i s h , 1,479; E c o n o m i c G e o g r a p h y , 1 7 3 ; S e c r e t a r i a l P r a c t i c e , 1,090; M e c h a n i c a l A p p l i a n c e s , 1 0 8 . T h e s e numbers do n o t i n c l u d e t h o s e t a k i n g t h e above s u b j e c t s i n S u p e r i o r S c h o o l s o r J u n i o r High Schools i nt h e Province."7 D u r i n g t h i s y e a r 1937-38 t h e h i g h s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t was 2 2 , 5 8 2 , a n d E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n was t h e one s u b j e c t t a k e n b y 7. S u p e r i n t e n d e n t o f E d u c a t i o n , V i c t o r i a , L e t t e r , December 1 5 , 1 9 3 8  Private  99 ©very p u p i l .  I f e a c h s u b j e c t r e c e i v e d t h e same amount o f time-,  - t h e same number o f e q u a l p e r i o d s p e r w e e k — t h e number o f t e a c h e r s p e r s u b j e c t w o u l d be  i n approximately  as t h e numbers o f p u p i l s . S i n c e t h i s was v e r y broad  deductions  c a n be  t h e same r a t i o  not the case  only  drawn.  S o m e t h i n g I s g a i n e d by c o n d e n s i n g  the s u b j e c t s  t h e i r n a t u r a l g r o u p s as f o l l o w s : E n g l i s h , 61,624;  into  Social  S t u d i e s , 2 3 , 0 4 6 ; M a t h e m a t i c s , 32,550; S c i e n c e , 19,210; F o r e i g n L a n g u a g e s , 1 6 , 7 6 8 ; A r t , 2,612; Home E c o n o m i c s , 3,051; M a n u a l T r a i n i n g , 7,430; C o m m e r c i a l , 17,888. T h i s p r o b a b l y E n g l i s h v e r y much b e c a u s e C o m p o s i t i o n  and Grammar t o g e t h e r ,  I n most s c h o o l , were t h e e q u i v a l e n t o f one of t i m e . T h e r e f o r e  i s now  subject In point  a b o u t 44,000 w o u l d seem t o p l a c e I t i n a  more n e a r l y e q u i v a l e n t o f t h o s e It  overrates  of the  others.  o f i n t e r e s t t o r e f e r t o T a b l e XV  and n o t e t h e p e r c e n t a g e  o f new  again  teachers majoring  j e c t . E n g l i s h r i g h t l y comes f i r s t  (page  i n each sub-  (28 p e r c e n t ) ; H i s t o r y  a t 19 p e r c e n t i s t o o h i g h and M a t h e m a t i c s a t 12 p e r c e n t low--they  c o u l d w e l l i n t e r c h a n g e p o s i t i o n s . The  p e r c e n t ) may (25 p e r  Sciences  be alb out r i g h t b u t L a t i n and F r e n c h  cent) are a p p a r e n t l y double  F u r t h e r m o r e L a t i n s h o u l d be h a l f the French  97)  their relative  about one  (13  combined importance.  q u a r t e r Instead of  p r o p o r t i o n , (9 p e r c e n t and 16 p e r  too  one  cent  respectively)• While but l i t t l e  t h i s d e s c r i b e s the s i t u a t i o n of the past i t serves as a g u i d e f o r t h e f u t u r e . The  c u r r i c u l u m i s a l t e r i n g the set-up  advent of a  c o n s i d e r a b l y . At  new  present  100 we  a r e i n t h e p e r i o d o f t r a n s i t i o n and i t i s v e r y  to  determine  difficult  what w i l l be t h e u l t i m a t e outcome. A r a t h e r  extensive l i s t  o f s u b j e c t s i s o f f e r e d and t h e c o n s t a n t s a r e  r e d u c e d t o E n g l i s h , S o c i a l S t u d i e s and H e a l t h . The  demand f o r  t e a c h e r s o f t h e s e s u b j e c t s f o r t h i s r e a s o n must r e m a i n c o n s t a n t and be g o v e r n e d  by t h e t o t a l number o f p u p i l s .  t h a t p o i n t , h o w e v e r , any d e g r e e o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y Two  fairly At  ceases.  b r o a d courses l i e ahead of the p u p i l , e i t h e r  towards  U n i v e r s i t y Extrance Examination or High School Graduation. U n i v e r s i t y Entrance commonly m e n t i o n e d  i s p r i m a r i l y intended f o r that small as 10 p e r c e n t , who  desire to continue  t h e i r s t u d i e s at U n i v e r s i t y ; the remainder t a k e H i g h S c h o o l G r a d u a t i o n . The S o c i e t y of B r i t i s h Columbia,  are expected  requirements  has  to  f a c t t h a t the Engineering  the N u r s i n g I n s t i t u t e s ,  the  N o r m a l S c h o o l s and o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n s have manded U n i v e r s i t y E n t r a n c e  group,  de-  o r b e t t e r as t h e i r minimum e n t r a n c e  g r e a t l y reduced the v a l u e of High  G r a d u a t i o n i n t h e e y e s o f many p u p i l s who  might  School  ordinarily  h a v e t a k e n s u c h a c o u r s e . E x p e r i e n c e so f a r has b e e n t h a t p r o b a b l y n o t more t h a n 50 p e r c e n t s e l e c t t h i s l a t t e r n a t i v e . Whether t h i s n o t , cannot  alter-  s i t u a t i o n w i l l a l t e r i n the f u t u r e or  a t t h i s t i m e be d i s c e r n e d .  S u p e r f i c i a l l y s p e a k i n g , i t w o u l d seem r a t h e r d i f f i c u l t to for  m a i n t a i n t h e e q u i v a l e n c y o f two  such d i v e r s e standards  e s s e n t i a l l y t h e same t h i n g — h i g h s c h o o l l e a r n i n g must  gain i n p r e s t i g e t o the detriment of the o t h e r .  101 It  i s not without  s i g n i f i c a n c e , a l s o , at t h i s p o i n t , t o  n o t e t h a t whereas f o r m e r l y one was a s p e c i a l i s t I n C h e m i s t r y or P h y s i c s  o r B i o l o g y , one now has t o be f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e  whole f i e l d  of Science,-Chemistry,  P h y s i c s , B i o l o g y , Geology,  Astronomy, A g r i c u l t u r e , H e a l t h and E n g i n e e r i n g . no  longer teach H i s t o r y but S o c i a l Studies  S i m i l a r l y we  involving History,  Economics, S o c i o l o g y , Geography and o t h e r a l l i e d The  subjects.  o l d curriculum followed p a r t i c u l a r subjects c e r t a i n l y  as much r i g o r i f n o t as much b r e a d t h i n schools  with  and d e p t h as t h a t f o u n d  o f a d v a n c e d l e a r n i n g . The new c u r r i c u l u m ,  however,  a t t e m p t s t o d e v e l o p a l l - r o u n d good c i t i z e n s by m a k i n g t h e courses  more d e f i n i t e l y r e l a t e d t o p r a c t i c a l l i v i n g .  i n v o l v e s much b r o a d e r c o u r s e s f i e l d s . Thus t h e t e a c h e r prepared  subject  of to-morrow i n s t e a d of b e i n g  well  i n one o r two s u b j e c t s w i l l be f o r c e d t o have a much  more g e n e r a l It  c u t t i n g a c r o s s more  This  education.  seems r e a s o n a b l e  t o e x p e c t t h a t t h e f u t u r e may s e e a  r e d u c t i o n t o fewer c a t e g o r i e s of the kinds teachers Sciences,  (by s u b j e c t ) of  needed, p o s s i b l y the S o c i a l S c i e n c e s , the P h y s i c a l t h e A r t s o f S e l f - E x p r e s s i o n s u c h as L a n g u a g e s ,  M u s i c a n d A r t a n d t h e I n d u s t r i a l A r t s . . M a t h e m a t i c s w o u l d be adjuncts  o f t h e P h y s i c a l and I n d u s t r i a l  E. Numbers o f P u p i l s T a k i n g  Sciences.  the Technical  Subjects.  Technical subjects, which include the I n d u s t r i a l A r t s , Home E c o n o m i c s w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n extent  these  will  continue  o f A g r i c u l t u r e . To what  t o r e p l a c e t h e more a c a d e m i c  102 * '  TABLE X V I  Distribution of Pupils, Instructors Manual T r a i n i n g  and C e n t r e s E n g a g e d i n  a n d Home E c o n o m i c s b y Y e a r s ,  1923-1939  Inclusive. Manual T r a i n i n g Home E c o n o m i c s No. b f No. o f No. o f No. ©f No. o f No. o f Y e a r P u p i l s C e n t r e s I n s t r u c t (r s p u p i l s C e n t r e s Instructors r  1923* 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939  12,071 14,150 14,223 14,251 13,043 14,409 14,981 15,179 14,983 15,428 13,357 13,258 12,817 13,540 13,806 13,640 14,087  79 79 81 83 86 93 111 114 139 140 132 130 133 138 139 . 132 141  69 69 71 75 78 80 89 91 96 95 89 88 87 94 101 99 112  8,446 11,193 11,193 11,455 11,429 12,311 12,231 11,888 12,478 12,465 12,513 13,099 11,221 11,328 12,530 12,672 13,025  49 54 54 55 59 71 73 75 79 81 76 71 72 77 91 94 104  51 51 55 55 57 73 78 83 86 87 86 81 81 88 103 106 113  *As a t J u n e 3 0 t h . s u b j e c t s i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o p r e d i c t b u t p o s s i b l y t h e demand f o r them w i l l l e v e l o f f a t a b o u t t h e i r p r e s e n t v a l u e s . Manual T r a i n i n g ,  or the I n d u s t r i a l Arts  known, h a s b e e n a p a r t t u r n of the Century.  of the curriculum  almost s i n c e t h e  I t was n o t u n t i l 1 9 3 6 , h o w e v e r , t h a t i t  bgcame c o m p u l s o r y f o r a l l c i t i e s , Class  a s i t i s now  of theF i r s t  and Second  t o e s t a b l i s h m a n u a l t r a i n i n g c e n t r e s f o r G r a d e s 7 a n d 8. Table XVI gives  t h e changes i n enrolment and i n t h e  number o f i n s t r u c t o r s a n d s h o p s f o r t h e l a s t 17 y e a r s . Some of t h e l a r g e  cities  have a number o f c e n t r e s - - i n  t h e r e were 1 4 1 s h o p s i n 54 c i t i e s 8. A n n u a l R e p o r t s o f P u b l i c op.cit.  1938-39  and d i s t r i c t s .  Schools of B r i t i s h  Columbia,  103 Certain facts  appear from a study of t h i s T a b l e .  First,  t h e r e was a l a r g e i n c r e a s e i n t r a i n i n g c e n t r e s d u r i n g t h e prosperous years  ending  i n 1929 and s u b s e q u e n t l y  a failure  t o m a i n t a i n a l l o f them d u r i n g t h e d e p r e s s i o n . S e c o n d , t h e g r e a t e s t enrolment occurred  i n 1 9 3 1 - 3 2 . And t h i r d , t h e f a c t  t h a t i n 1923-24 t h e r e were 69 i n s t r u c t o r s  f o r 14,150  pupils  w h i l e i n 1938-39 t h e r e were 112 i n s t r u c t o r s f o r 14,087 p u p i l s an i n c r e a s e o f 43 i n s t r u c t o r s i s not without  t r a i n i n g centres  c a n be a c c o u n t e d f o r b y t h e o p e n i n g o f  i n the s m a l l e r communities, r e s u l t i n g i n  p e r t e a c h e r , and b y t h e g r e a t e r t i m e  spent by  e a c h p u p i l i n . I n d u s t r i a l A r t s due t o more e x t e n d e d Manual t r a i n i n g teachers Summer S c h o o l s initial  are prepared  requirements  are e i t h e r F i r s t  C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s and i n shops.  r e p o r t e d t h a t f o r t h e Summer S e s s i o n o f 1939 and o f t h e s e  e m p l o y e d as i n s t r u c t o r s . T h i s the process  of q u a l i f y i n g — a  of a l l the vacancies  or expansion  left  The  over  a b o u t 55 were a l r e a d y a s u r p l u s o f a b o u t 40 i n  s u r p l u s s u f f i c i e n t , i t seems, t o  t h a t w i l l be c r e a t e d b y r e t i r e m e n t  f o r some y e a r s  t o come. T a b l e X V I does n o t g i v e  much i n d i c a t i o n o f any d e c i d e d  Private  at  a n d w h e r e p o s s i b l e on S a t u r d a y , m o r n i n g s . The  90 were i n a t t e n d a n c e  care  courses.  by a t t e n d a n c e  an a p t i t u d e f o r p r a c t i c a l w o r k , o r e x p e r i e n c e Director  pupils-  i n t e r e s t . This proportionate increase i n the  number o f i n s t r u c t o r s  fewer p u p i l s  w i t h a d e c r e a s e o f 63  expansion.  9. D i r e c t o r o f T e c h n i c a l E d u c a t i o n , V i c t o r i a , I n t e r v i e w , J u l y , 1939.  104 Home E c o n o m i c s commenced a f e w y e a r s a f t e r M a n u a l T r a i n i n g . The two have t r a v e l l e d a l m o s t more o r l e s s t o be e x p e c t e d .  p a r a l l e l paths--a c o n d i t i o n  I t , t o o , became c o m p u l s o r y f o r  Grades 7 a n d 8 i n 1936 a n d as a c o n s e q u e n c e saw a number o f new  centres established. Prom t h e d a t a f o r t h e l a s t 17 y e a r s  (Table XVI)  i t can  be s e e n t h a t s i n c e 1923-24 t h e numbers t a k i n g Home E c o n o m i c s have b e e n r e m a r k a b l y decrease  c o n s t a n t . T h i s number t o o s u f f e r e d a  r e c e s s i o n f o l l o w i n g t h e d e p r e s s i o n . Home E c o n o m i c s ,  l i k e w i s e , has w i t n e s s e d teachers r e l a t i v e  a decided expansion  i n t h e number o f  t o t h e number o f p u p i l s , a n d f o r t h e same  reasons. T h e r e a r e b a r e l y enough Home E c o n o m i c s t e a c h e r s t o meet t h e demand. C e r t a i n f a c t o r s m i t i g a t e a g a i n s t t h e s u p p l y . One i s t h a t a l l c a n d i d a t e s must a t t e n d a u n i v e r s i t y i n M i d d l e o r E a s t e r n Canada a n d t h u s remote.  t h e source  o f s u p p l y i s somewhat  Most o f t h e Home E c o n o m i c s t e a c h e r s  i n British  Columbia are n a t i v e t o t h e P r a i r i e P r o v i n c e s . Secondly t h e t u r n o v e r i s r a t h e r l a r g e - - c e r t a i n l y l a r g e r t h a n i s t h e case f o r Manual T r a i n i n g teachers--and ing i s longer, being 5 years--4 year p r o f e s s i o n a l . I n t h i s  l a s t l y the p e r i o d of t r a i n -  years  a c a d e m i c w o r k a n d one  i t resembles the t r a i n i n g r e c e i v e d  by h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s . The  D i r e c t o r r e p o r t e d t h a t o f t h e 25 p l a c e m e n t s d u r i n g the  105 p a s t summer ( 1 9 3 9 ) , 14 c o n s i s t e d o f a change i n p o s i t i o n and 11 r e p r e s e n t e d a p p o i n t m e n t s  o f new t e a c h e r s . I n 1936-37  t h e r e were 1 8 new a p p o i n t m e n t s . I n t h e o p i n i o n o f t h e D i r e c t o r t h e r e c o u l d he l i t t l e  f u r t h e r e x p a n s i o n . She t h o u g h t  the next y e a r o r two might  add about  10 a d d i t i o n a l  w h i c h w o u l d b r i n g t h e number o f Home E c o n o m i c s t o t h e maximum u n d e r p r e s e n t  conditions.  that  positions  c e n t r e s up  io  TABLE X V I I D i s t r i b u t i o n o f P u p i l s b y Years f o r Commercial and A g r i c u l t u r e , 1922-23 a n d 1929-39  Inclusive.  Number o f P u p i l s Year  Commercial  1922-23  1023  1929193019311932193319341935193619371938-  2421 2792 3121 3654 4617 3233 4420 4584 6708 8498  30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 •» N o t R e p o r t e d  T a b l e X V I I i n d i c a t e s t h e changes t h a t have o c c u r r e d i n the enrolment  i n t h e A g r i c u l t u r e and Commercial  courses f o r t h e  l a s t t e n y e a r s . The y e a r 1922-23 i s I n c l u d e d f o r c o m p a r i s o n . T h e s e t w o c o u r s e s have b e e n r e s t r i c t e d a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y t o 1 0 . D i r e c t o r o f Home E c o n o m i c s , V i c t o r i a . B y P r i v a t e I n t e r v i e w , J u l y , 1939. 11. Annual Reports o f P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h Columbia. op.cit.  106 h i g h s c h o o l s , whereas Home E c o n o m i c s and M a n u a l T r a i n i n g have been a p a r t of b o t h the elementary A g r i c u l t u r e has T h i s s u b j e c t has  and  shown b u t l i t t l e  high school  change d u r i n g t h e  been c o n f i n e d l a r g e l y t o d i s t r i c t s  t h e m s e l v e s a g r i c u l t u r a l or t o d i s t r i c t s areas.  At p r e s e n t  d i s t r i c t s . The  (1938-39) i t i s t a u g h t  teachers  any  years.  w h i c h were  adjoinfogagricultural i n 15 c i t i e s  have u s u a l l y b e e n g r a d u a t e s  a g r i c u l t u r e f r o m some u n i v e r s i t y . T h e r e does n o t be  curricula.  and  in  appear t o  l i k e l i h o o d o f an a d v a n c e i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r f i e l d  of  education. The  commercial courses  have shown t h e g r e a t e s t  increase  of a l l the t e c h n i c a l s u b j e c t s . In Vancouver, alone, there now  two  separate  i n 35 c i t i e s  and  commercial high s c h o o l s . Classes are  held  districts.  T h e r e i s no d o u b t a b o u t t h e a p p e a l course  of the  commercial  t o a l a r g e number o f p u p i l s . T h e y f e e l t h e y  have  s o m e t h i n g w h i c h c a n be u t i l i z e d t o e a r n them a l i v i n g . s e n i o r m a t r i c u l a t i o n boy commercial.  Afterwards  t h i n g o f v a l u e he  had  because, of course,  returned to high school to  he e x p r e s s e d  the  i t secured  him  of  time.  young p e o p l e w o r l d . To  c o u l d be  the output  only  commercial,  i n t h e e y e s o f many p u p i l s - -  i t i s v o c a t i o n a l i t i s v a l u a b l e , otherwise  wonder how  take  a j o b . I t i s r a t h e r a good  if  cannot but  One  o p i n i o n t h a t the  l e a r n e d i n h i g h s c h o o l was  r a t i n g o f a h i g h s.chool e d u c a t i o n  One  are  i t i s a waste  s u c h a l a r g e number o f t r a i n e d  absorbed each y e a r by the  commercial  o f t h e p u b l i c s c h o o l s must be  added  those  107 p r e p a r e d i n p r i v a t e b u s i n e s s c o l l e g e s . T h e r e i s no doubt t h a t many do n o t s e c u r e t h e j o b s f o r w h i c h  they are equipped. F o r  t h a t r e a s o n one w o u l d e x p e c t t h a t i n t i m e c o m m e r c i a l  courses  w o u l d d e c l i n e i n f a v o r . A t what p o i n t t h e demand w i l l o f f , however, cannot  as' y e t be d i s c o v e r e d .  Commercial t e a c h e r s t o secure a Commercial must have a F i r s t attendance  level  certificate,  C l a s s o r Academic c e r t i f i c a t e and by  a t summer s e s s i o n o r a t o t h e r t i m e s c o m p l e t e  requirements. There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e overlapping--many doing o n l y p a r t time commercial t o determine  certain  teachers  work—so that i ti s d i f f i c u l t  t h e t r u e s i t u a t i o n . There a r e a p p a r e n t l y s u f f i c -  i e n t t e a c h e r s , however, e i t h e r q u a l i f i e d o r i n t h e p r o c e s s of b e c o m i n g s o t o s u p p l y t h e needs f o r some t i m e t o come. M u s i c , A r t , P h y s i c a l E d u c a t i o n , L i b r a r y and Guidance specialists  have as a r u l e b e e n t r a i n e d i n much t h e same  manner as M a n u a l T r a i n i n g o r C o m m e r c i a l t e a c h e r s . I n most c a s e s t h e y must f i r s t certificate  have e i t h e r a F i r s t  and then by meeting  ments e i t h e r b y a t t e n d a n c e  certain additional  require-  a t summer s c h o o l s o r o t h e r w i s e  they acquire s p e c i a l c e r t i f i c a t e s A few, t r a i n e d  C l a s s o r Academic  i n these v a r i o u s f i e l d s .  only i n these s u b j e c t s , r e c e i v e  i n t h e l a r g e r c e n t r e s as s u p e r v i s o r s o r f u l l  appointments  time teachers  o f t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r s p e c i a l i t y . T h e r e i s one A r t s c h o o l i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a - - V a n c o u v e r S c h o o l o f A r t - - b u t no s e p a r a t e school of Music  or Physical Education.  A l l these subjects  a r e t a u g h t , h o w e v e r , i n n e a r l y a l l s c h o o l s on a p a r t t i m e b a s i s - - t h e t e a c h e r s h a v i n g v a r y i n g degrees  o f p r e p a r a t i o n and  108 c o m p e t e n c e . Whether t h e s e b r a n c h e s o f e d u c a t i o n w i l l i n importance good r e a s o n s  i t is difficult why  will  t o s a y . T h e r e seems t o be  t h e y s h o u l d b u t t o what e x t e n t  s h o u l d become s p e c i a l i s t s  i n these f i e l d s  have t o be d e c i d e d i n t h e l i g h t In  very  teachers  i s something t h a t  of the changing f u t u r e .  c o n c l u s i o n i t seems p o s s i b l e w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f  Home E c o n o m i c s , t o t r a i n , f a i r l y a d e q u a t e l y , for  expand  regular teachers  c e r t a i n t e c h n i c a l branches of e d u c a t i o n c o n s i d e r a b l y i n  a d v a n c e o f t h e n e e d f o r t h e m and t o t r a n s f e r them f r o m t h e a c a d e m i c t o t h e t e c h n i c a l d e p a r t m e n t s as t h e demand a r i s e s . S i n c e t h e y a r e r e g u l a r l y e m p l o y e d i n t h e w i n t e r and  secure  t h e i r t r a i n i n g d u r i n g t h e summer v a c a t i o n no harm i s done i f there i s a surplus.  P. The  Accumulated Surplus  of  Teachers.  In - c o n c l u d i n g t h i s c h a p t e r i t i s of i n t e r e s t t o c o n s i d e r the s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s determine  i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e demand and  t h e e x t e n t o f t h e s u r p l u s , i f any.  to  Unfortunately  any d a t a w h a t e v e r f o r t h e demand s i d e c a n n o t be  secured  be-  f o r e t h e y e a r 1 9 3 0 - 3 1 and r a t h e r t h a n i g n o r e e n t i r e l y t h e . y years previous t o t h a t , withdrawals 10 p e r  cent  as  o f t h e t e a c h i n g b o d y . T h e r e , s e e m s t o be no means  of c h e c k i n g t h i s e s t i m a t e e x c e p t it  have been e s t i m a t e d  t h a t i t was  i s g r e a t e r t h a n any r e s u l t f o u n d  chosen because  s i n c e 1930-31.  T a b l e X V I I I g i v e s t h e d a t a f o r t h e y e a r s 1922-39 i n c l u s i v e . The  number o f s e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e y e a r s 1930-39 i s  taken from Table X I I I .  (page  82)  TABLE X V I I I Demand, b y F a c t o r s , S u p p l y 1922-39  and. S u r p l u s o f T e a c h e r s b y Y e a r s ,  Inclusive. Demand f o r T e a c h e r s WithPens- I n c r e a s e drawals ions or (decrease)  Year 1921-22 1922-23 1923-24 1924-25 1925-26 1926-27 1927-28 1928-29 1929-30 1930-31 1931-32 1932-33 1933-34 1934-55 1955-36 1936-37 1937-38 1938-39  311* 321 329 339 355 366 378 385 -* 200 200 182 246 282 235 246 278 275 *" E s t i m a t e d  38 30 37 34 35 34 44 25 22  Total Demand  Supply of Teachers  435* 414 411 441 488 503 494* 455 352 241 172 241 386 283 359 > 370 399  478 635 645 564 449 358 407 354 380 443 423 406 335 280 309 219 214 231  -M65 - 51 - 3 - 50 -151 -185  Accumulated surplus  -f 479  124 93 183 102 135 137 116 70 94 11 -47 -39 69 14 69 67 102  J  As t h e demand i s f o r t h e f i r s t  Surplus or (shortage  lO  / *L  .  y- 43 -f 221 i- 238 ^123 - 39 -145 - 87 -101 -r 48 •y-202 1-251  o f t h e s c h o o l y e a r and  t h e s u p p l y f o r t h e e n d , t h e number o f t e a c h e r s  prepared  i n 1930-31, f o r i n s t a n c e , i s i n a sense t h e s u p p l y f o r 1931-32. Hence t o d e t e r m i n e year  the surplus or shortage  i t i s necessary  f o r any g i v e n  t o s u b t r a c t the supply of the previous  y e a r . T h i s has b e e n done i n T a b l e  XVIII.  Q u i t e n a t u r a l l y p e r i o d s o f o v e r - and  under-production  12.To d e t e r m i n e t h e s u r p l u s f o r a g i v e n y e a r s u b t r a c t t h e demand o f t h a t y e a r f r o m t h e s u p p l y o f t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r .  110 have f o l l o w e d e a c h o t h e r , r a t h e r c u r i o u s l y , i n f o u r y e a r There i s s t i l l years  q u i t e a l a r g e accumulated surplus a f t e r  of underproduction.  cycL  five  Too much r e l i a n c e , h o w e v e r , c a n n o t  be p l a c e d on t h i s r e s u l t b e c a u s e f i r s t  of a l l ,  it,  assumes a  c o n s i d e r a b l e c a r r y - o v e r f r o m t h e 1922-26 e r a , t h e f i g u r e s f o r which are l i t t l e all  b e t t e r than informed  and,  secondly  s u r p l u s e s tend t o s h r i n k w i t h time--unemployed teachers  get m a r r i e d , s e c u r e  other p o s i t i o n s or d i e .  number o f u n e m p l o y e d t e a c h e r s was At t h a t time the obvious a l a r m b e c a u s e i t was be  guesses,  I n 1933-34 t h e  quite large—around  s u r p l u s was  900.  causing considerable  a common c o n d i t i o n e v e r y w h e r e . I t w o u l d  i n t e r e s t i n g t o know t o what e x t e n t t h e s i t u a t i o n has  proved  i n o t h e r p a r t s of the  world.  B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a must v e r y s o o n see t h e number o f ers i n t r a i n i n g  i n c r e a s e o r f a c e an a c t u a l s h o r t a g e , a  d i t i o n w h i c h has  not e x i s t e d s i n c e the Great  on t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s . The  an a v e r a g e a n n u a l  106  e i g h t - y e a r p e r i o d , 1 9 3 1 - 3 9 , i t was decrease  con-  effect  average y e a r l y  i n c r e a s e f o r t h e n i n e - y e a r p e r i o d , 1 9 2 2 - 3 1 , was but f o r the next  teach-  War.  F i n a l l y T a b l e X V I I I b r i n g s out v e r y c l e a r l y the of expansion  im-  i n t h e demand o f 75  teachers, only  31,  teachers.  S p e c i a l i s t t e a c h e r s have i n c r e a s e d i n numbers s i n c e t h e i n a u g u r a t i o n o f c o m p u l s o r y I n d u s t r i a l A r t s and courses, which f a c t accounts l a s t two  or t h r e e  years.  Home E c o n o m i c s  f o r p a r t of the expansion  of  the  Ill  Pig. 5  Distribution  f o r Teachers (Data f r o m  o f t h e S u p p l y o f and Demand  by Y e a r s , 1 9 2 1 - 3 9 ,  Table'XVIII)  Inclusive.  112 ' .  CHAPTER VTT  The C h a n g i n g C h a r a c t e r  of t h e Teaching  Perannriftl  as  i t Affects  SUDTDIV a n d Demand.  A. The I n c r e a s i n g P r o p o r t i o n o f Men, The l a r g e number o f s e p a r a t i o n s i n t h e t e a c h i n g f e s s i o n each year pension  pro-  as I n d i c a t e d b y t h e number o f r e f u n d o f 1  c o n t r i b u t i o n s , o f w h i c h 80 p e r c e n t  a r e f o r women,  shows t h a t t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n I s n o t a s t a b l e s u c h as one f i n d s i n t h e c a s e o f m e d i c i n e , o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n s . The r e a s o n  of course  occupation  d e n t i s t r y and t h e  i s obvious--it i s the  l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f women t e a c h e r s . To f e w o f them does  teach-  i n g mean much more t h a n a n i n t e r l u d e b e t w e e n g r a d u a t i o n a n d marriage.  This  i s not t o i n f e r that they are the less  successful or conscientious f o r i t .  capable,  T h i s i n s t a b i l i t y i s thus  c a u s e d b y those' e n g a g e d i n t e a c h i n g a n d n o t b y t h e t y p e o f work. The c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h i s p o r t i o n o f new c a n d i d a t e s necessary  i s t h a t a v e r y much l a r g e r p r o -  must be p r e p a r e d  annually than i s  f o r any o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n . I t i s l o g i c a l t o suppose  t h a t t h e g r e a t e r t h e number o f men i n p r o p o r t i o n t o women t h e s m a l l e r s h o u l d be t h e t u r n o v e r . standard  of c e r t i f i c a t e s  S i m i l a r l y an i n c r e a s e i n the  demanded s h o u l d be e x p e c t e d  t o reduce  t h e numbers who f o r m e r l y were s a i d t o u s e t e a c h i n g as a s t e p p i n g - s t o n e . The more t i m e the l e s s l i k e l y  a n d money i n v e s t e d I n p r e p a r a t i o n  one i s t o e n t e r w i t h o u t  due c o n s i d e r a t i o n o r  1. S u p e r a n n u a t i o n C o m m i s s i o n e r , V i c t o r i a , P r i v a t e Letter, A p r i l 2 2 , 1940  113 to  l e a v e on t h e s l i g h t e s t p r e t e x t . F o r t u n a t e l y i t seems  p o s s i b l e t o v e r i f y these  statements w i t h a c t u a l f i g u r e s ,  (pages It in  i s t o o much t o hope t h a t t e a c h i n g w i l l  a c q u i r i n g t h e same s t a b i l i t y o f p e r s o n n e l  ever  succeed  as t h e o t h e r  p r o f e s s i o n s . Of n e c e s s i t y t h e r e must be women t e a c h e r s .  They  are almost i n d i s p e n s a b l e f o r c e r t a i n c l a s s e s and t y p e s o f teaching.  I t wouldbe u n n a t u r a l  t o e x p e c t them t o r e f r a i n  f r o m m a r r i a g e a n d i t a p p e a r s t o be a g a i n s t to  permit  our i n c l i n a t i o n s  them t o t e a c h a f t e r t h e y a r e m a r r i e d  s t a t e s i t i s done.  Unless  t h o u g h i n some  however e c o n o m i c a r r a n g e m e n t s a r e  made t o c a r e f o r t h e s u r p l u s l a b o r i t i s d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r married  women w i l l b e a l l o w e d ,  t e a c h and so d e p r i v e  i n Canada, t o c o n t i n u e t o  s i n g l e p e r s o n s o f an o p p o r t u n i t y t o w o r k .  Table X I X gives t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of teachers to  t h e c e r t i f i c a t e s h e l d a n d a l s o b y s e x , f o r t h e l a s t 27  years out  according  i n B r i t i s h Columbia. This  two p o i n t s - - f i r s t  l o n g p e r i o d i s used t o b r i n g  the remarkably steady  growth i n t h e  number o f men a n d s e c o n d t h e t e m p o r a r y d e c r e a s e i n t h e i r numbers b r o u g h t a b o u t b y t h e G r e a t War. begin t i l l if  t h e second year  h i s t o r y w i l l repeat  The d e c l i n e d i d n o t  o f t h e w a r . One c a n n o t b u t wonder  itself.  The number o f women  teachers  i n c r e a s e d more r a p i d l y t h a n men b u t r e a c h e d i t s z e n i t h i n 1930-31, a f t e r w h i c h i t s u f f e r e d a c o n s i d e r a b l e Figure VI presents It  t h e same i n f o r m a t i o n g r a p h i c a l l y .  i s understandable  increase f a i r l y  set-back.  t h a t t h e number o f men s h o u l d  s t e a d i l y . T h e i r enrolment a t t h e t r a i n i n g  114 ' ) Distribution  TABLE X I X  of Teachers by Y e a r s , A c c o r d i n g t o C e r t i f i c a t e s  and S e x , i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a - - 1 9 1 3 - 3 9 Year 1913* 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939  Academic F i r s t 320 347 416 408 380 372 376 417 433 482 521 526 535 548 580 612 695 730 759 789 835 862 922 955 1012 1062 1123  450 634 592 529 466 463 453 499 490 548 638 717 780 887 994 1110 1227 1244 1380 1441 1449 1490 1569 1607 1642 1717 1854  Inclusive.  Second T h i r d Temporary S p e c i a l i s t 422 480 530 624 740 796 873 976 1105 1217 1416 1516 1597 1603 1610 1589 1545 1534 1471 1378 1309 1218 1150 1082 1021 940 799  213 274 322 370 393 420 388 404 418 374 297 235 187 158 133 113 92 83 65 73 69 56 51 49 47 48 43  19% 124 106 47 53 80 140 132 139 202 83 40 19 29 19 27 27 35 30 30 17 10 4 4 2 5  -  •A r.r.  86 92 115 102 129 149 171 163 177 176 171 195 217 198 215 225 238 223 231 237 239 276 291 350  Male F e male 406 485 521 523 468 436 486 572 595 700 729 779 847 866 899 995 1057 1116 1163 1235 1218 1283 1342 1403 1496 1557 1601  1191 1374 1445 1541 1656 1810 1846 1985 2139 2294 2389 2432 2447 2530 2632 2673 2727 2738 2785 2724 2694 2590 2600 2553 2529 2535 2593  * As a t J u n e 3 0 t h o f e a c h y e a r . Institutions  has r e m a i n e d  r e m a r k a b l y c o n s t a n t . ( F i g . 4 page 93)  C o n t r a r i w i s e a l a r g e enrolment f r o m about  o f women was d u r i n g t h e y e a r s  1920-1927, which l a t e r -decreased v e r y d e c i d e d l y .  Hence t h e i r numbers e x p a n d e d r a p i d l y  during that p e r i o d but  2. A n n u a l R e p o r t s o f P u b l i c S c h o o l s o f B r i t i s h Columbia. Op.cit.  115  '0  V/l )ooa  Years Pig.  6 Distribution  of Teachers by Sex,  I n c l u s i v e , f o r B r i t i s h Columbia  1913-59 ,  116 l o s t o u t l a t ' t e r l y t o t h e men. I n 1917-18 men f o r m e d l e s s  than  20 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h e r s w h i c h i s t h e minimum f o r t h e 27 y e a r s u n d e r r e v i e w . F o r a number o f y e a r s i t h o v e r e d a r o u n d 25 p e r c e n t b u t now (1938-39) has r e a c h e d p e r c e n t . Whether t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f men w i l l increase only time  can t e l l .  38  continue t o  The number o f v i s i t i n g  teachers  on e x c h a n g e has b e e n c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o s e x b u t n o t a c c o r d i n g t o c e r t i f i c a t e h e n c e t h e sum o f t h e d i f f e r e n t es o f c e r t i f i c a t e s  class-  i n a g i v e n y e a r does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y e q u a l  t h e sum o f t h e number o f t e a c h e r s b y s e x .  (Table XIX)  T a b l e XX shows t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t e a c h e r s b y s e x f o r each t y p e o f s c h o o l and I n each c l a s s  of d i s t r i c t  f o r the  y e a r 1 9 3 5 - 3 6 . I n h i g h s c h o o l s men a r e d e c i d e d l y i n t h e m a j o r ity,  almost  e q u a l i n numbers t o women i n t h e j u n i o r  high  s c h o o l s a n d t h e r e a f t e r v e r y d e f i n i t e l y i n t h e m i n o r i t y . Two f a c t o r s seem t o d e t e r m i n e are n o t present  t h e l o c a t i o n o f men. U s u a l l y t h e y  t o any e x t e n t i n t h e lower grades w i t h t h e  s m a l l c h i l d r e n a n d t h e y t e n d t o move t o t h e h i g h e r p a i d p o s i t i o n s b e c a u s e t h e $780 f o r t h e one-room s c h o o l s o r e v e n t h e maximum s a l a r y o f t h e c i t y e l e m e n t a r y  s c h o o l s does n o t  generally a f f o r d a s u f f i c i e n t l y high standard of l i v i n g f o r a man w i t h a f a m i l y . A d m i n i s t r a t i v e p o s i t i o n s , h o w e v e r , e v e n i n elementary  s c h o o l s do a t t r a c t men a n d a r e t h e r e f o r e as a  r u l e h e l d b y men c h i e f l y b e c a u s e s c h o o l b o a r d s f e e l t h a t a man w i l l be more p e r m a n e n t t h a n a woman a n d p e r h a p s b e c a u s e , as t h e women s a y ,  "It i s s t i l l  a man's w o r l d . "  117 TABLE XX Distribution  of Teachers  f o r B r i t i s h Columbia High School M. Cities 342 District Municipal ities 72 Rural  49  Totals  i n V a r i o u s Types o f S c h o o l s  f o r the Year  Junior High Schools M.  1935-36 .  Superior Schools  P.  M.  J  Elementary (more t h a n one room)  P.  One room Schools  M.  M.  P.  201  95  98  1  2  317  1010  63  9  9  3  4  150  423  22  3__  1_ _59_ 72  96  228  198  429  563  1661  198  429  463 • 286  Percent62$ ages  B.  P.  by Sex  38$  107 50$  108  63  78  50 £44$ 56$  I n c r e a s i n g P r o p o r t i o n of High  25$  75$  32$  68$  Certificates.  T a b l e X I X . a n d F i g u r e 7 show t h e show t h e  distribution  of the c l a s s e s of c e r t i f i c a t e s of a l l t e a c h e r s a c t i v e l y p l o y e d , b y y e a r s f o r t h e p e r i o d 1913-39 i n c l u s i v e . of  s p e c i a l i s t s c e r t i f i c a t e s have shown  The  a v e r y modest  emnumber  but  steady increase. The number o f T h i r d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s e x p a n d e d  rapidly  d u r i n g t h e war y e a r s , when t h e r e d e v e l o p e d  a pronounced  s h o r t a g e o f t e a c h e r s , s u s p e n d e d u n t i l 1921  and t h e n b e g a n a  r a p i d d e c l i n e w h i c h was  underway even b e f o r e t h e i s s u a n c e of  f u r t h e r T h i r d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s ceased  i n June 1 9 2 2 .  p e r i o d o f 7 y e a r s o v e r 300 T h i r d C l a s s C e r t i f i c a t e s  3.  Ibid.  In a  disappear-  118  *  r 7,  165 1  //  1  /  .s  • —> /  (  /  \  /  N  /  1 1  / /  y  / crcr  7  1 1  4 /  •  -  •J  0  /  3  I/  r  s  / /1 / /  \ \  \ \  V \ \  \  v-»  \  1  \  <  trie  h  / /  X. \  \ \  /  iI l  1\  -a  \  /  f  /  _  /  /  N  ]  /  / /  /  A  /  MOO  *  i  /  \  /  1  ,  '/  f f  c  r  X  *•  $ :  *  o  Years Pig.  7 Distribution  by Y e a r s f o r t h e  of Each G l a s s of  P e r i o d 1913-39  Certificate  Inclusive,  119 ed f r o m t h e r o l l s — s o m e proved t h e i r  of these  teachers  retired,  c e r t i f i c a t i o n . Since then a f a i r l y  p e r s i s t e d w i t h o n l y a d r o p o f 50 i n t h e l a s t . The number o f S e c o n d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s and  remarkably  1937  h a r d c o r e has  11 y e a r s . had a v e r y r a p i d  u n i f o r m g r o w t h f r o m 1913 t o 1925 i n c r e a s i n g  almost f o u r f o l d by 5 y e a r s  some i m -  i n that twelve-year  p e r i o d . T h i s was f o l l o w e d  o f i n d e c i s i o n and t h e n a p r e c i p i t o u s d e c l i n e . I n  t h e Department of E d u c a t i o n  d e c i d e d not t o i s s u e any  more S e c o n d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s . I t I s i n t e r e s t i n g  t o n o t e how  t h e y b e g a n t o d e c r e a s e i n number n e a r l y 10 y e a r s p r i o r t o t h a t d a t e . The s u r p l u s o f t e a c h e r s  d u r i n g t h a t i n t e r v a l made  c o m p e t i t i o n so keen t h a t they l o s t  out t o t h e h i g h e r  c a t e s . Prom now on t h e y w i l l rapidly  continue t o disappear  e v e n more  than b e f o r e , r e p e a t i n g t h e c y c l e o f growth and d e c l i n e  experienced First by t h e G r e a t  by T h i r d Class  certificates.  Class c e r t i f i c a t e s  made a d e f i n i t e  War i n t e r r u p t e d t h e i r  a recession—and  i t was n o t t i l l  start  growth--actually  upwards producing  1 9 2 1 t h a t t h e t?rend g o t  u n d e r way a g a i n . The r a t e o f g r o w t h has p a r a l l e l l e d the  certifi-  t h a t of  Second C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s . S i n c e 1931, however, t h i s  o f g r o w t h h a s s l o w e d down a n d has r e m a i n e d f a i r l y t h e new t r e n d . So f a r t h e r e h a s b e e n i n d i c a t i o n  steady  rate on  that the  numbers w o u l d c e a s e t o e x p a n d . T h a t c a n h a r d l y o c c u r t i l l t h e Second C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s  have been, much more g r e a t l y  reduced. Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s  also suffered a relapse  during  t h e war y e a r s , b u t commenced t o i n c r e a s e a g a i n i n 1919 a n d  120 h a v e c o n t i n u e d t o do so e v e r s i n c e . I n 1924,  due  undoubtedly  t o the i n a u g u r a t i o n of the t e a c h e r s t r a i n i n g course P r o v i n c i a l U n i v e r s i t y , saw  the b e g i n n i n g of a f a i r l y  a n d - r e g u l a r t r e n d w h i c h has p e r s i s t e d t o t h e C. R e l a t i v e S t a b i l i t y B a s e d on The  at  the  uniform  present.  Certification.  r a t e of t u r n o v e r s e r v e s t o measure the s t a b i l i t y  a t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l . Where t h e r a t e o f t u r n o v e r i s l o w  of  the  s t a b i l i t y i s h i g h . Hence i t i s p o s s i b l e t o compare, q u a n t i t a t i v e l y the r e l a t i v e  s t a b i l i t y of d i f f e r e n t groups of t e a c h e r s .  I n c i d e n t a l l y " , a l s o , t h e method g i v e t h e a v e r a g e number o f s e p a r a t i o n s p e r y e a r , w h i c h s e r v e s as a c a r e f u l c h e c k  on  t h e work o f Chapter. I V . TABLE  XXI  I n c r e a s e i n C e r t i f i c a t e s f r o m 1923-39; Number I s s u e d t h e 16 y e a r s ; E x c e s s  over Expansion  Turnover f o r B r i t i s h  Columbia.  Glass of Certificate Academic A l l Others Total Average Glass of Certificate  Academic A l l Others Total  and Y e a r l y R a t e  1923-24 I 1938-39 Number o f C e r t i f i c a t e s  of  Increase 597 _3S6_  1125 5071  526 2685  During  61 No. o f E x c e s s o f S e p a r a t i s t s Ave T u r n o v e r C e r t i f i c a t e s Those p e r y e a r Reg. i n Percent of Issued i n Issued C e r t . of Ave. Over I n c r e a s e 16 y e a r s Reg. 985 5037  388 4651  24 291 315  825 8878 3703  2 0 9^ 10.1% 8.5$  121 Table XXI  g i v e s t h e number o f t e a c h e r s a c t i v e l y  h o l d i n g A c a d e m i c and  engaged  a l s o o t h e r c l a s s e s of c e r t i f i c a t e s  t h e two y e a r s 1923-24 and  1938-39--16 y e a r s a p a r t . The  for next  c o l u m n g i v e s t h e i n c r e a s e s f o r t h e same 16 y e a r s . K n o w i n g t h e number o f c e r t i f i c a t e s i b l e by  issued during t h i s p e r i o d i t i s poss-  s u b t r a c t i o n to determine  the excess  of t e a c h e r s  pared  o v e r and a b o v e t h e numbers r e q u i r e d t o c o v e r  I f we  assume f o r a r g u m e n t s s a k e t h a t a l l t h e s e e x c e s s  ers  e v e n t u a l l y s e c u r e d p o s i t i o n s , i n t h e 16 y e a r s  pre-  expansion. teach-  this  same  number o f a c t i v e t e a c h e r s must have r e s i g n e d . Thus t h e  average  number o f s e p a r a t i o n s and t h e a v e r a g e number of t e a c h e r s each c l a s s employed i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c a l c u l a t e the age  y e a r l y r a t e o f t u r n o v e r . The  have b e e n t a k e n f r o m T a b l e X I V  percent-  basic facts for this  (page 92)  of  table  and T a b l e X I X  (page  114). C e r t a i n i n c i d e n t a l observations a r i s e at t h i s p o i n t . T h r e e - f i f t h s of the expansion  f o r t h e l a s t 16 y e a r s has  t o t h o s e w i t h Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s but t h e y have o n l y o n e - s i x t h o f t h e new has b e e n 61 t e a c h e r s  t e a c h e r s . The  comprised  average annual  o f w h i c h 37 p o s i t i o n s have b e e n  by those w i t h Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s maining  teachers. I f expansion  likely,  and  i f the r a t i o  and  increase  taken  o n l y 24 b y t h e r e -  were t o c e a s e , w h i c h a p p e a r s  of c e r t i f i c a t e s  unchanged which I s u n l i k e l y ,  gone  by c l a s s e s remained  t h e a v e r a g e number o f  holders  o f a c a d e m i c s w h i c h c o u l d be a b s o r b e d , b y t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n w o u l d d r o p f r o m 61 t o 24 w h i l e t h e o t h e r w o u l d o n l y d e c l i n e f r o m 315  t o 291,  on t h e b a s i s o f t h e l a s t  16-year  122 averages.  The  s e c o n d a s s u m p t i o n may  n o t be  j u s t i f i a b l e how-  ever. The  average y e a r l y replacement  t i o n has b e e n a p p r o x i m a t e l y f o r a n i n e - y e a r p e r i o d , by  315  t h a t b o t h t h e r a t e o f t u r n o v e r and  The  t o 1930  f o r on t h e  expansion  (page 8 1 ) . assumptions  were g r e a t e r  t h a n t h e y have b e e n f r o m 1930  e s s e n t i a l p o i n t at t h i s  306,  (page 79 ) and  as compared t o 344  d i f f e r e n c e s are e a s i l y accounted  f r o m 1922  estima-  t e a c h e r s as compared t o  a p r e v i o u s method  t h e t o t a l y e a r l y demand, 376 The  by t h i s method of  t o the  present..  s t a g e , however, i s the  very  marked d i f f e r e n c e i n the r a t e of t u r n o v e r . For Academic t e a c h e r s i t has b e e n l e s s t h a n  3 per  t e a c h e r s i t has  10 p e r  exceeded  cent whereas f o r a l l o t h e r cent--(3^- times  as g r e a t ) .  I t w o u l d seem a v a l i d c o n c l u s i o n t o s t a t e t h a t t h e  higher  t h e c e r t i f i c a t e s t h e s m a l l e r t h e t u r n o v e r o r i n o t h e r words the g r e a t e r the s t a b i l i t y of the t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l . I f the p r o p o r t i o n of Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s  c o n t i n u e s t o i n c r e a s e , as  I t w o u l d seem t h a t t h e y s h o u l d , t h e number o f  separations  s h o u l d d e c l i n e w i t h a c o n s e q u e n t r e d u c t i o n i n t h e demand f o r new  teachers. While  this,  w h o l e t r u t h . An  i n the aggregate, almost  s a l a r y s c a l e which w i l l  D.  i s t r u e i t i s not  e q u a l l y p o t e n t f a c t o r a p p e a r s t o be be  examined.  R e l a t i v e S t a b i l i t y B a s e d on  Salaries.  now  T a b l e X X I I shows t h e m e d i a n y e a r s f o r d i f f e r e n t types districts.  the  of e x p e r i e n c e by  of s c h o o l s i n d i f f e r e n t  c l a s s e s of  sex  the  ,  123 Men  i n * c i t y h i g h s c h o o l s have t h e h i g h e s t r e c o r d o f a l l  and g e n e r a l l y a r e e i t h e r e q u a l t o o r a h e a d o f women i n a l l o t h e r t y p e s and c l a s s e s of s c h o o l s except t h r e e - - j u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s , c i t y e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s and one-room r u r a l s c h o o l s . I n t h e s e t h r e e cases t h e r e appears  t o be a s i m i l a r c a u s e f o r  t h i s r e v e r s a l o f p o s i t i o n s as b e t w e e n t h e s e x e s - - n a m e l y  that  men a d v a n c e t o t h e n e x t t y p e o f s c h o o l f a s t e r t h a n women-t h a t i s from j u n i o r t o s e n i o r h i g h , from c i t y elementary t o j u n i o r h i g h a n d f r o m one-room r u r a l s c h o o l s t o e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l i n d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . One c a n c o n c l u d e , t h e n , t h a t on t h e a v e r a g e men s p e n d a l o n g e r t i m e a t t e a c h i n g t h a n w o m e n — t h a t t h e r a t e o f t u r n o v e r f o r men i s l e s s t h a n f o r women. TABLE X X I I Median Years of S e r v i c e o f a l l Teachers  by Sex, D i s t r i c t s and  T y p e s o f S c h o o l s f o r 1935-36. District  High School Male Pemale T o t a l  Superior Junior High M a l e F e m a l e T o t a l M a l e Fern jT o t a l  Cities 11 14 12 15 12.5 10.5 District 11 10 M n n i c i p a l i t i es 10.5 Rural Dis7 7 :. 7 tricts 9 8 •» Too f e w c a s e s t o make t h e r e s u l t s r e l i a b l e . 8.5 One -room Sc h o o l Elementary (More t h a n one room) District Male Female T o t a l M a l e Vernal e T o t a l 14 Cities 13 District M u n i c i p a l i t i e s ^ 1.5 9.5 R u r a l D i s t r i c t s ' 7.9 7.5  13.5 10 7.5  3.5  4.5  4  T a b l e X X I I a l s o b r i n g s out t h e f a c t v e r y c l e a r l y t h a t t h e 4. Ibid77~Vol. L X V I , p p . 9 - 1 3  1936-37  124 l e n g t h o f ' s e r v i c e i s d e c i d e d l y i n f l u e n c e d b y t h e c l a s s of district  and t h a t t h i s a p p l i e s t o a l l t y p e s  f o r b o t h s e x e s . The  u n d e r l y i n g cause;  of s c h o o l s  a p p e a r s t o be t h e r e -  l a t i v e s a l a r y s c a l e s i n each c l a s s of d i s t r i c t . Table shows t h e a v e r a g e s a l a r y f o r men c l a s s of d i s t r i c t  and  and  XXIII  and women c o m b i n e d i n e a c h  f o r each type of s c h o o l . TABLE X X I I I  A v e r a g e S a l a r i e s b y C l a s s e s o f D i s t r i c t s and T y p e s o f  Schools  If f o r the year  1936-37.  District  High  School Junior  Cities #2183 District Municipalities §1558 R u r a l D i s t r i c t s $1499 #  High Elementary  #1751  #1470  $1435 sl;l424  11030 =S89.6.# .  Superior  $970  I n c l u d i n g one-room s c h o o l s .  W i t h i n each type of s c h o o l the h i g h e r the average s a l a r y , t h e l o n g e r t h e l e n g t h o f s e r v i c e . I t w i l l be n o t e d , t h a t i t i s not t h e a b s o l u t e but  however,  r e l a t i v e v a l u e s t h a t must  considered;  city  junior high schools with a higher  salary f a l l  below c i t y elementary  :  be  average  s c h o o l s i n p o i n t of  years  of s e r v i c e . I n c o n c l u s i o n , the r a t e of t u r n o v e r i s a p p a r e n t l y ed b y  at l e a s t t h r e e f a c t o r s - - s e x , c l a s s of c e r t i f i c a t e  5.  Ibid.,  pp.23-25  affectand  125 relative salary scale. It i s d i f f i c u l t  t o a s s i g n t o any  one  t h e p r e e m i n e n c e , a l t h o u g h s a l a r i e s a p p e a r t o make a v e r y p r o nounced d i f f e r e n c e — m o r e to separate  so even t h a n s e x . I t seems i m p o s s i b l e  t h e f a c t o r s and gauge t h e i r r e l a t i v e f o r c e s . F o r  e x a m p l e c i t y h i g h s c h o o l men all  have t h e s m a l l e s t t u r n o v e r  a c c o r d i n g t o T a b l e X X I I . I n t h i s c a s e t h e y have t h e h i g h -  e s t s a l a r y , t h e h i g h e s t c e r t i f i c a t e and men  of  a r e men  and y e t  the  i n t h e r u r a l one-room s c h o o l s have t h e g r e a t e s t t u r n o v e r ,  t h e f a c t t h a t t h e y a r e men  notwithstanding. Again Table  w o u l d l e a d one  t h a t the c l a s s of c e r t i f i c a t e  extremely  t o conslude  important but  experience  (Table XXII)  a t t e a c h i n g ( b o t h men  XXI  i n terms of the median of years c i t y elementary  was of  teachers stay longer  and women) t h a n t e a c h e r s i n j u n i o r  high  s c h o o l s and f o r women a l o n e t h e i r r e c o r d i s b e t t e r t h a n i n s e n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s and y e t t h e  j u n i o r and  t e a c h e r s have Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s It  and  senior high school  also higher  i s o n l y p o s s i b l e t o r e c o n c i l e t h e s e two  salaries.  statements  a s s u m p t i o n t h a t most o f t h e t u r n o v e r i n e l e m e n t a r y  on  the  schools  e x i s t s i n r u r a l s c h o o l s . G i r l s f r o m Normal secure p o s i t i o n s i n t h e s e s c h o o l s ; t e a c h two  o r t h r e e y e a r s ; a f e w move up  b e t t e r p o s i t i o n s ; b u t most o f them g e t m a r r i e d . these  r u r a l t e a c h e r s w h i c h make up  to  I t seems t h a t  a l i t t l e more t h a n  q u a r t e r o f t h e t o t a l t e a c h i n g b o d y c a u s e a b o u t one  one  half  the  replacements. Any  c h a n g e s i n t h e s e f a c t o r s c a n be  t h e r a t e o f t u r n o v e r and  consequently  expected  to  affect  t h e demand and t h e r e f o r e  must be w a t c h e d and d u l y a p p r a i s e d when e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e n e e d s .  126 CHAPTER VTTT The TJae o f t h e M e d i a n Y e a r s over.  o f Expertanne tr> Determine T u r n -  I t has b e e n s u g g e s t e d t h a t one m e t h o d t o measure t h e number o f r e p l a c e m e n t s  i s t h r o u g h t e a c h e r t e n u r e . The  investi-  g a t o r e x p r e s s e d t e a c h e r t e n u r e i n terms of the median years of s e r v i c e  (page  21). Experience i n t h i s  investigation  i n d i c a t e s t h a t where t h e m e d i a n i s u s e d t h e r e s u l t s a r e too" h i g h and m u s t g e n e r a l l y be The  average  replacement  f o u n d t o be an a v e r a g e b u t b y the use This result  so. b y two  o t h e r methods has  been  o f a b o u t 310 p e r y e a r (pages 9/ and  o f t h e m e d i a n i t w o u l d be a p p r o x i m a t e l y  400.  i s s e c u r e d by d i v i d i n g t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h -  e r s , 4,194, b y t h e m e d i a n y e a r s o f s e r v i c e f o r a l l t e a c h e r s (10.5 y e a r s ) . T h i s i s an a d v a n c e o f a b o u t 30 p e r c e n t i s f a r t o o l a r g e an e r r o r . The  e r r o r a r i s e s from  assuming  t h a t the years of s e r v i c e c l o s e l y f o l l o w a normal The  evidence  which  distribution.  i n d i c a t e s that the d i s t r i b u t i o n i s r a t h e r decid-  e d l y skewed t o t h e r i g h t . As a r e s u l t t h e m e d i a n has  a  lower  v a l u e t h a n t h e mean. T h e r e f o r e t h e m e d i a n y e a r s o f s e r v i c e i s l e s s t h a n the average to expect  o r mean y e a r s o f s e r v i c e and l e a d s  a greater turnover than a c t u a l l y  exists.  T a b l e X X I V shows t h e f o r m i n w h i c h t h e d a t a  relating  t o t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f t e a c h e r s were p u b l i s h e d . I t c a n  be  s e e n t h a t t h e i n t e r v a l s a r e o f d i f f e r e n t l e n g t h s and  that  t h e r e i s an The  one  "open-end" c l a s s a t t h e b o t t o m .  m e d i a n as a v a l u e o f c e n t r a l t e n d e n c y  indicates that  one h a l f t h e i t e m s a r e b e l o w a c e r t a i n v a l u e , t h e o t h e r h a l f a b o v e . I f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n were n o t skewed t h e m e d i a n c o u l d be t a k e n as h a v i n g t h e same v a l u e as t h e mean. TABLE X X I V C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Teachers Columbia,  b y Sex a n d E x p e r i e n c e i n B r i t i s h  1935-56.* Cities^ High ffuhi©3?# Suio e r i o r Elementary Schools So a o o l s ffig l chool r M. P. •'.[•otal M. P. T o t , M. P. r o t .. SM. P. T o t a l  T o t a l Experi e n c e a t end of y e a r • Less than 1 y r . 1 y r . & under 2 4 2 yrs . 3 3 yrs . n 4 10 rt 4 yrs . 5 10 ri 5 yrs . 6 11 6 yrs. it 7 11 ti 7 yrs. 8 11 ff 8 yrs. 9 18 ft 9 yrs. 10 27 tt 10 y r s . 15 66 15 y r s . n 20 48 ft 20 y r s . 25 38 tt 25 y r s . 30 19 tt 30 y r s . 35 21 35 y r s . & o v e r 19 Unspecified 242  •I  7 11 •2 9 12 7 6 16 5 5 ' 15 1 11 22 4 8 19 3 7 18 6 11 29 9 17 44 8 36 102 •27 27 75 14 21 59 4 14 33 3 7 28 2 19 201 543 95  3 5 11 18 5 4 5 3 7 4 7 3 9 6 15 4 12 24 5 1 1 13 27 10 14 9 6 3 5 1 1 98 193 1  1  1  2  1 12 l 17 9 14 7 l 9 5 18 16 i 80 33 23 24 23 12 3 317  9 28 19 17 13 33 27 42 57 47 254 170 103 84 55 28 1010  10 40 36 26 27 40 36 47 75 63 334 203 126 108 78 40 1327  # S i m i l a r t a b l e are given f o r M u n i c i p a l D i s t r i c t s and R u r a l D i s t r i c t s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e mean c a n n o t be c a l c u l a t e d i n t h i s to the 1. I b i d . , p.9  example  128 n e a r e s t h a l f y e a r , because of the t h e mean, n o t  "open-end" c l a s s . And  yet  t h e m e d i a n i s t h e i m p o r t a n t measure s i n c e I t s  v a l u e i s a f f e c t e d by t h e v a l u e of each I n d i v i d u a l Common e x p e r i e n c e  item.  and t h e above d a t a t e n d t o s u p p o r t  the  conclusion that i f a teacher continues to teach past a given i n i t i a l p e r i o d h i s ( o r her) chances of t e a c h i n g f o r the of h i s ( o r her) working  lire  are g r e a t l y enhanced  and  hence  t h e a v e r a g e number o f y e a r s o f s e r v i c e o f a l l t e a c h e r s er  than the median v a l u e . I n o t h e r words, i f h a l f the  rest  i s highteachers  have b e e n t e a c h i n g f r o m 0 t o 10 y e a r s , t h e o t h e r h a l f  have  b e e n t e a c h i n g , h o t 'from 10 t o 20 y e a r s b u t f r o m 10 t o 35 40  years. The  m o d a l v a l u e i s t h e most common v a l u e . I n t h e  i n w h i c h the d a t a are s u p p l i e d i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o i t w i t h any  degree of accuracy.  v a l s are reduced the remaining up  or  t o two  I f the f i r s t  form  determine  one-year  inter-  f i v e - y e a r i n t e r v a l s t o correspond  s i x , the c l a s s i n t e r v a l s  to  i s t o o l a r g e t o show  t h e modal group s a t i s f a c t o r i l y . A t h r o e - y e a r  interval  w o u l d g i v e f r o m 12 t o 14 c l a s s e s w h i c h w o u l d b r i n g o u t  this  m e a n s u r e much b e t t e r . T a b l e XXV,  c o n s t r u c t e d from data c o l l e c t e d by  Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s  through  the  the Department of  u c a t i o n f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a shows t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f  Edthe  teachers a c c o r d i n g to t h e i r experience f o r the three c l a s s e s of d i s t r i c t s of f i v e years  and  f o r them combined. There are seven  e a c h and  Intervals  on t h a t i s I n d e t e r m i n a t e . The  and modes ( u n w e i g h t e d ) a r e a l s o g i v e n f o r t h e s a k e o f  medians com-  129 p a r i s o n . The m e d i a n s have b e e n c a l c u l a t e d b y I n t e r p o l a t i o n and t h e s e  arithmetical values  experience nearest  c o r r e c t e d - - s i n c e years of  u s u a l l y go b y i n t e r v a l s o f h a l f a y e a r - - t o t h e  h a l f y e a r . The modes a r e t a k e n as t h e c e n t r a l  value  of e a c h m o d a l g r o u p . F i g u r e 8 shows t h e same d a t a . B y means o f c o l u m n d i a g r a m s i t i s p o s s i b l e t o see t h e m o d a l g r o u p and to observe  t o what e x t e n t e a c h d i s t r i b u t i o n i s skewed t o w a r d s  a l o n g e r l e n g t h o f s e r v i c e . The f i v e - y e a r i n t e r v a l s a r e v e r y o b v i o u s l y u n s a t i s f a c t o r y as a means o f c l a s s i f y i n g in rural  teachers  schools.  Mills'  s t a t e s that In a d i s t r i b u t i o n which departs  from  a s y m m e t r y t h e mode, m e d i a n a n d mean a r e drawn a p a r t . " I f t h e d e g r e e o f asymmetry i s o n l y m o d e r a t e t h e t h r e e p o i n t s have a f a i r l y  constant  r e l a t i o n . The mode a n d mean l i e f a r t h -  e s t a p a r t , w i t h t h e m e d i a n one t h i r d o f t h e d i s t a n c e , f r o m t h e mean t o w a r d s t h e mode." Assuming i n t h i s case t h a t t h e r e i s o n l y a moderate d e g r e e o f a s y m m e t r y , i f t h e mode, f o r t h e p r o v i n c e as a w h o l e i s 7.5, t h e m e d i a n 1 0 . 5 , t h e n t h e mean s h o u l d be 1 2 . w o u l d mean t h a t t h e a v e r a g e number o f y e a r s all  teachers  This  of experience of  i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i s 12.. On t h a t b a s i s i t  _ 2. F.>P. M i l l s , S t a t i s t i c a l M e t h o d s , p . 1 3 0 , New Y o r k , H e n r y H o l t a n d Company, 1936 ~  •  ••  Y/ear® o f S e r v i c e *  E i g . 8 * Column Diagram;; D i s t r i b u t i o n ' - o f Years of E x p e r i e n c e f o r Teachers in  C i t i e s , , D i s t r i c t . . M u n i c i p a l i t i e s . , S u r a l D i s t r i c t s and f o r  the  E n t i r e P r o v i n c e f o r the Y e a r 1935.-36. (Class I n t e r v a l ^yy.eaos^)  131 TABLE  XXV  C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Teachers by Years  of E x p e r i e n c e , f o r C i t i e s ,  D i s t r i c t Municipalities, Rural Districts  and t h e P r o v i n c e  I n t e r v a l s of 5 y e a r s , f o r the Year 1 9 3 5 - 3 6 . Intervals Cities Under 5 years 5 y r s . & under 10 y r s . " " 15 y r s . " 20 y r s . " 25 y r s . " 30 y r s . " 35 y r s . & o v e r  227 444 488 305 199 150 111 60  10 15 20 25 30 35  Medians ( y e a r s ) Modes ( y e a r s )  4,194  teachers  pansion  10 7.5  6 2 ©5  teachers each year t o r e p l a c e the  i n 12 y e a r s , n o t  because the weighted and  10.5 7.5 present  c o n s i d e r i n g any p o s s i b l e ex-  or c o n t r a c t i o n . This value i s s t i l l  r a t h e r t h a n 7.5  4  Frequencies District Rural Entire N u n i c i p a l l t i e s D i s t r i c t sP r o v i n c e 158 505 890 199 359 1002 170 143 801 . 51 47 403 52 17 268 31 12 193 9 15 135 6 7 73  14 12.5  w o u l d t a k e 349 new  by  somewhat t o o  mode by c a l c u l a t i o n i s f o u n d t o be  high 7.39  t h i s w o u l d c a u s e t h e mean t o i n c r e a s e i n  value. I n c o n c l u s i o n , w h i l e t h e m e d i a n may convenient  be a v e r y u s e f u l and  m e a s u r e f o r d e t e r m i n i n g any c h a n g e s i n t h e  charact-  e r o f a t e a c h i n g b o d y f r o m y e a r t o y e a r o r f o r m a k i n g comp a r i s o n s as b e t w e e n g r o u p s ,  i t i s n o t s a t i s f a c t o r y as a m e t h o d  of e s t i m a t i n g t h e r a t e of t u r n o v e r .  3. A n n u a l R e p o r t s o f P u b l i c S c h o o l s o f B r i t i s h Columbia, l o o , c i t . (adapted)  CHAPTER I X F i n d i n g s a n d ReeommendatIons. A.  A Summarization of the F i n d i n g s . The more i m p o r t a n t  lined  c o n c l u s i o n s c a n now he b r i e f l y  out-  as f o l l o w s :  (1) A l l t h e e v i d e n c e p o i n t s t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e school attendance  has r e a c h e d  elementary  i t s " c e i l i n g " a n d w h i l e i t may  Waver tip a n d down s l i g h t l y f o r a f e w more y e a r s  i t appears  doomed t o b e g i n , a d e c l i n e e v e n t u a l l y . (2) A l t h o u g h  h i g h s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t has had a n u n i n t e r r u p t e d  g r o w t h a n d s o a p p a r e n t l y has n o t r e a c h e d  the l i m i t of i t s  upward t r e n d , s i n c e i t i s t i e d t o t h e elementary attendance,  i t t o o must r e a c h a l e v e l l i n g - o f f  school  p e r i o d marked  by s m a l l g a i n s and l o s s e s f o l l o w e d by t h e I n e v i t a b l e d e c l i n e . If  a n a v e r a g e o f 13,000 p u p i l s e n t e r e d G r a d e I , a maximum  o f 30,000 t o 35,000 p u p i l s s h o u l d be f o u n d  i n the high schools.  As a t p r e s e n t t h e r e a r e a b o u t 2 3 , 0 0 0 , i t i s p o s s i b l e a n d a l s o probable  t h a t t h e h i g h s c h o o l enrolment w i l l  years t o increase but w i l l  c o n t i n u e f o r some  l a t e r t a p e r o f f a r o u n d 30,000 as  a maximum. The war w i l l p r o b a b l y c a u s e t h e i n c r e a s e t o be s m a l l f o r a few y e a r s . (5) There i s e v e r y p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e t o t a l s c h o o l  popula-  t i o n may c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e s l i g h t l y , t h o u g h n o t m a t e r i a l l y , for  a few years y e t .  ( 4 ) T h e number o f p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r has become f a i r l y  well  standardized. ( 5 ) The e f f e c t s  of s h i f t s  o f p o p u l a t i o n as b e t w e e n p r o v i n c e s  133 may  d i s t u r b t h e c o n c l u s i o n s t o some e x t e n t b u t  i t i s doubtful  if  i m m i g r a t i o n w i l l a g a i n be a f a c t o r i n p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h ,  at  l e a s t not i n the near f u t u r e .  (6) A l l t h i s sums, up t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s due  to expansion  i s g o i n g t o be n e g l i g i b l e  hence-  forth. ( 7 ) The  demand f o r new  t e a c h e r s w i l l thus c o n s i s t almost  e n t i r e l y of replacements death, marriage  and o t h e r  due  t o v a c a n c i e s c r e a t e d by o l d  age,  causes.  ( 8 ) W h i l e t h e number t h u s r e t i r i n g v a r i e s f r o m y e a r t o nevertheless there i s a f a i r l y  year,  u n i f o r m t e n d e n c y w h i c h i s most  s e r i o u s l y d i s t u r b e d by economic c o n d i t i o n s . (9) Replacements a l o n e , f o r t h e l a s t t e n y e a r s a b o u t 306  teachers per year which represents  7^ p e r ' c e n t  o f t h e t o t a l number o f  (10) R e p l a c e m e n t s p l u s e x p a n s i o n  number o f men  have a v e r a g e d 344  fifths  8^ p e r  teachers  cent.  teachers i s increasing a c t u a l l y  r e l a t i v e l y , h a v i n g a d v a n c e d f r o m one two  approximately  positions.  p e r y e a r f o r t h e same p e r i o d - - a b o u t ( 1 1 ) The  have a v e r a g e d  quarter to  and  approximately  o f t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h e r s . I n t h e m e a n t i m e ,  o f c o u r s e , t h e number o f women t e a c h e r s i s d e c l i n i n g . (12) T h e r e i s an i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f  higher  certificates. (13) The type  r a t e s of t u r n o v e r are most d e c i d e d l y a f f e c t e d by  of community i n w h i c h the s c h o o l s are  h a v i n g t h e s m a l l e s t , and teacher  turnover.  the  situated--cities  one-room r u r a l s c h o o l s t h e  largest,  154 (14) The t u r n o v e r i s a l s o a f f e c t e d b y e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s and therefore v a r i e s from year t o year--the for the last  t e n years  range of  replacements  has b e e n b e t w e e n a p p r o x i m a t e l y  6 per  c e n t and 9 p e r c e n t . (15) A b o u t 1954 t h e r e was a l a r g e a n d e m b a r r a s s i n g  surplus of  t e a c h e r s but because o f reduced  attendance  at the normal  schools f o r the l a s t f i v e years  t h e r e a r e now v e r y f e w un-  employed t e a c h e r s . (16) The w a r , i f h i s t o r y r e p e a t s  I t s e l f , w i l l b r i n g about a  r e d u c t i o n i n t h e number o f men t e a c h e r s a n d p r o b a b l y an a c u t e shortage  of a l l t e a c h e r s w i t h a consequent l o w e r i n g of the  educational  standards.  B. R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s . (1) One c a n q u i t e h o n e s t l y and s i n c e r e l y recommend t h e adopt i o n o f some scheme o f c o n t r o l b y w h i c h s u p p l y a n d demand f o r teachers  c a n be b r o u g h t i n t o b a l a n c e . B u s i n e s s e s  f i n d i t not  only p r a c t i c a l but e s s e n t i a l to t h e i r very existence t o e s t i m a t e t h e f u t u r e demand a n d r e g u l a t e t h e s u p p l y a c c o r d i n g l y . New j e r s e y , w i t h many more d i f f i c u l t i e s t o overcome  than  B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a w o u l d h a v e , has p r a c t i s e d c o n t r o l f o r t h i r t e e n years  a n d a p p a r e n t l y h a s no i n t e n t i o n o f a b a n d o n i n g i t . I t  seems r e a s o n a b l e  t o s u p p o s e t h a t prompt a c t i o n b a s e d on a  k n o w l e d g e o f t h e t r u e s i t u a t i o n c o u l d have a v e r t e d t h e l a r g e surplus of teachers a probable is,  of a few years  ago a n d a l s o have  s c a r c i t y now. The s u g g e s t i o n , t h e n ,  avoided  essentially  t h a t b y t h e u s e o f a d e q u a t e r e c o r d s we k e e p o u r s e l v e s  136 w e l l informed  i n a l l measurable phases of the e d u c a t i o n a l  s y s t e m and so a v o i d u n n e c e s s a r y  mistakes  and  of judgment. T h i s a p p l i e s not o n l y t o m a t t e r s  glaring errors relating  to  t h e t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l but t o f u t u r e s c h o o l accommodation and  other k i n d r e d problems. No  one  can v i s u a l i z e a l l the r a m i f i c a t i o n s , a l l the  m o d i f i c a t i o n s t h a t any p r e - c o n c e i v e d p l a n may have t o u n d e r g o . O n l y b y a c t u a l e x p e r i e n c e  l e a d t o or  with  concrete  p r o b l e m s as t h e y a r i s e c a n any g e n e r a l scheme be made t o c o n f o r m t o t h a t w h i c h i s m o s t d e s i r a b l e and u s e f u l . Hence t h e f o l l o w i n g r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s as accepted  as a s u g g e s t e d  to p r o c e d u r e  are only t o  be  w o r k i n g b a s i s t o be e x p a n d e d o r  alter-  e d as a c t u a l c o n d i t i o n s i n d i c a t e . At present  a d e q u a t e r e c o r d s of, t h e t e a c h i n g  a r e n o t k e p t . The  personnel  d u a l system of c o n t r o l p r a c t i s e d In  C o l u m b i a makes i t d i f f i c u l t t o m a i n t a i n t h e m . The of E d u c a t i o n because of the pressure t h e f a c t t h a t o n c e i t has  British  Department  o f t i m e and b e c a u s e  i s s u e d a c e r t i f i c a t e the  of  holder  p a s s e s out o f i t s hands t o come u n d e r t h e c o n t r o l o f  school  b o a r d s b o t h t o h i r e and  imposs-  i b l e t o m a i n t a i n any b o d y . O b v i o u s l y one these  d i s m i s s , has f o u n d  i t almost  semblance of c o n t a c t w i t h the of the f i r s t  obstacles. In t h i s  teaching  s t e p s w o u l d be t o e l i m i n a t e  c o n n e c t i o n i t s h o u l d be  stated that  o n l y as s a t i s f a c t o r y r e c o r d s a c c u m u l a t e c a n t h e most means o f e s t i m a t i o n and  c o n t r o l be  suitable  evolved.  (2) T h e r e f o r e , the second recommendation i s t h a t f o r t h w i t h t h e r e s h o u l d be a c o m p l e t e r e r e g i s t r a t i o n o f a l l t e a c h e r s  l"3fc t h i s t o i n c l u d e t h o s e who l e a v e o f a b s e n c e and  are employed i n t e a c h i n g or  i n as f a r as p o s s i b l e t h o s e who  on are  unemployed or o t h e r w i s e engaged. T h i s r e g i s t r a t i o n s h o u l d i n clude a l l p e r t i n e n t i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g each  teacher--(1)  p e r s o n a l i t e m s , s u c h as s e x , d a t e and p l a c e o f b i r t h , or s i n g l e ; (4) c l a s s  married  (2) s c h o l a s t i c r e c o r d (3) p r o f e s s i o n a l r e c o r d c e r t i f i c a t i o n and m a j o r s u b j e c t s (5)  c u l a r i n t e r e s t s and  abilities  o n l y t h e most i m p o r t a n t .  extra-curri-  (6) c h a r a c t e r r a t i n g — t o m e n t i o n  I t m i g h t be most c o n v e n i e n t  i n the  l o n g r u n t o e m p l o y a c a r d i n d e x s y s t e m s u i t a b l e f o r use  with  t h e H o l l e r i t h t a b u l a t i n g m a c h i n e . E a c h c a r d s h o u l d be k e p t to date  and p l a c e d i n one  of f o u r groups.  i s t o r e p r e s e n t amployed t e a c h e r s  (1) The  first  up  group  (2) t h e s e c o n d g r o u p , t e a c h -  e r s on l e a v e o f a b s e n c e w i t h r e a s o n s  (3) t h e t h i r d g r o u p t h e  t e a c h e r s who  are at present  d e s i r e t o t e a c h b u t who  - i l y unemployed or o t h e r w i s e who  e n g a g e d and  l a s t l y the  temporarteachers  have w i t h d r a w n f r o m t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n w i t h  reasons  therefore. (3) C e r t a i n changes i n t h e r e g u l a t i o n s g o v e r n i n g s h o u l d be made. T h o s e who see, withdrawing  are permanently,  teachers  so f a r as t h e y  from the p r o f e s s i o n should surrender  c e r t i f i c a t e before r e c e i v i n g pension refunds. This w o u l d be  their  certificate  k e p t b y t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n t o be redeemed a t  a l a t e r d a t e , i f n e c e s s a r y , b y m a k i n g a p p l i c a t i o n and ing a refresher course. e d and  can  attend-  I f a satisfactory standing i s obtain-  i f t h e t e a c h e r c a n be p l a c e d a t once w i t h o u t  i n t e r f e r i n g w i t h t h e normal s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s t h e  seriously teacher  ". • 1317  may have h i s o r h e r c e r t i f i c a t e r e i n s t a t e d — o t h e r w i s e t h e r e t u r n i n g t e a c h e r must a w a i t a l a t e r d a t e . T h i s a r r a n g e m e n t w o u l d r e t a i n some o f t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f a l i f e  c e r t i f i c a t e and  y e t e l i m i n a t e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f h a v i n g one's  calculations  c o m p l e t e l y upset by a sudden i n r u s h o f r e t u r n i n g t e a c h e r s . Those t e a c h e r s i n v o l v e d m e r e l y  i n an e x c h a n g e o f p o s i t i o n s  would n o t need t o I n d i c a t e t h e exchange. They would  consist  o f e s s e n t i a l l y s i m i l a r t y p e s a n d i n no way a f f e c t t h e amount o r k i n d o f t h e demand. (4) T h o s e g o i n g on l e a v e o f a b s e n c e w o u l d h a v e t o s e c u r e m i s s i o n both from t h e i r School Board  per-  and t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f  E d u c a t i o n so t h a t i n any g i v e n year S u f f i c i e n t e x t r a teachers w o u l d be on h a n d t o c o v e r t h e number on l e a v e . The  i n a u g u r a t i o n o f t h e s e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s w o u l d make i t  p o s s i b l e t o commence some scheme o f c o n t r o l . K n o w i n g t h e number o f t e a c h e r s r e t i r i n g e a c h y e a r on p e n s i o n , w e l l i n a d v a n c e , a n d f r o m p a s t r e c o r d s e s t i m a t i n g t h e number o f t e a c h e r s who l e a v e f o r o t h e r r e a s o n s , i t I s p o s s i b l e t o approximate  t h e f u t u r e demand one, two o r more y e a r s I n  advance. I n t h e o c c a s i o n a l y e a r s when t h e demand was  underestimat-  e d some o f t h o s e a b o u t t o go on p e n s i o n m i g h t e a s i l y b e p e r suaded t o c o n t i n u e f o r a y e a r t o b r i d g e t h e gap. I n a d d i t i o n a s m a l l r e s e r v o i r o f t e a c h e r s m i g h t be m a i n t a i n e d b y r e t a i n i n g a few o f each year's understanding  c l a s s t o a c t as s u b s t i t u t e s , on t h e  t h a t t h e y w o u l d be g i v e n p r i o r i t y i n t h e f o l l o w -  i n g year^ o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a system  o f cadet  teachers  138 m i g h t he u s e d s u c c e s s f u l l y t o i r o n out t h e f l u c t u a t i o n s . Some means s h o u l d be r e t a i n any  .  year-to-year  d e v i s e d i n any c a s e  to  s u r p l u s of a given year i n a c t i v e contact w i t h  t h e i r c h o s e n work. To a s s i s t f u r t h e r i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e demand i t w o u l d necessary  to a n t i c i p a t e the attendance  advance. While examination  one  c a n n o t hope f o r any  f o r a y e a r o r two  in  great precision,,  ap  o f t h e e n t i r e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n b y g r a d e s must  indicate f a i r l y  c l o s e l y the attendance  i n the next  grades the f o l l o w i n g year because the percentage and  be  l o s s e s .are f a i r l y  higher  of promotions  c o n s t a n t . I f t h e r e i s n e i t h e r immigra-  t i o n o r e m i g r a t i o n t h e b e g i n n i n g c l a s s must be g o v e r n e d b y number o f b i r t h s b i r t h s serves expansion  i n p r e v i o u s y e a r s . I n d e e d t h e number o f  as a r a t h e r good b a r o m e t e r f o r d e t e r m i n i n g  o r c o n t r a c t i o n , t h a t m i g h t o c c u r some y e a r s  f u t u r e , g i v i n g s u f f i c i e n t time the i n d i c a t e d  the  any  i n the  t o make ample p r e p a r a t i o n f o r  changes.  L a s t l y c u r r e n t b u s i n e s s , a c t i v i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e number of vacant aid  p o s i t i o n s occurring i n other f i e l d s  i n c o r r e c t i n g t h e a n t i c i p a t e d demand. The  drawals  f o r marriage  of work,  serves  number of w i t h -  o r t o e n t e r o t h e r t y p e s of work i s de-  c i d e d l y a f f e c t e d b y t h e e c o n o m i c f a c t o r . As e c o n o m i c c h a n g e s p r e c e d e any  effect  demand e s t i m a t e  t h e y may  have i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c o r r e c t t h e  some t i m e i n a d v a n c e o f i t s r e a l i z a t i o n - -  u s u a l l y i n t i m e t o make t h e n e c e s s a r y  adjustments  i n the  supply. What s t e p s s h o u l d be t a k e n t o r e g u l a t e t h e s u p p l y  are  1®9  not  q u i t e so e a s i l y s e e n .  I f t h e number o f a p p l i c a n t s f o r  admission t o the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n are i n excess n e e d , some s y s t e m o f s e l e c t i o n s h o u l d be number a t t e n d i n g i s l i m i t e d .  of  the  adopted by which t h e  I f on t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e number  is  l e s s t h a n i s r e q u i r e d , as m i g h t h a p p e n , i t i s d i f f i c u l t  to  s a y what p r o c e d u r e  s h o u l d be f o l l o w e d .  d i d a t e s knew t h e y were r e a s o n a b l y s u r e o f p o s i t i o n s , p r o v i d e d t h e y met w o u l d be no  P r o b a b l y i f cansatisfactory  the r e q u i r e d standards,  r e l u c t a n c e t o undergo the c o s t , i n time  there and money,  involved i n preparation. In  c o n c l u s i o n , commerce i s s u c c e s s f u l i n so f a r as i t  estimates ing  this  demand and  regulates supply a c c o r d i n g l y . In estimat-  demand as many f a c t o r s as p o s s i b l e b e a r i n g upon t h e  p r o b l e m a r e . c o n s i d e r e d . I t seems r e a s o n a b l e s i m i l a r methods s h o u l d and and  to b e l i e v e that  c o u l d be s u c c e s s f u l i n e d u c a t i o n ,  t h a t w h i l e t h e s e w o u l d e n t a i l a c e r t a i n amount o f work,  the saving to prospective teachers, present teachers s o c i e t y g e n e r a l l y w o u l d p a y f o r t h e c o s t many t i m e s If  the present  I n v e s t i g a t i o n has  t h e p r o b l e m t o t h e f o r e and  f o r the establishment  i t w i l l not  have b e e n e n t i r e l y w i t h o u t  over.  succeeded i n b r i n g i n g  i n some m e a s u r e l a y i n g  foundations  and  the  o f some r e g u l a t o r y scheme, value.  BIBLIOGRAPHY A. S o u r c e  Material.  Annual Report of the P u b l i c S c h o o l s of B r i t i s h V i c t o r i a , D e p a r t m e n t "of Educa^TonT" Canada Y e a r B o o k , 1 9 5 4 - 5 5 . O t t a w a , D o m i n i o n S t a t i s t i c s , 1935, p p . x l 1235  Columbia. :  Bureau of  T e n t h A n n u a l R e p o r t , T e a c h e r s ' P e n s i o n A c t . , V i c t o r i a , 1939, pp. 1 4 . : " ' Private  Letters:  A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, V a n c o u v e r , November 2 2 , 1939. " D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Teacher T r a i n i n g Graduates by M a j o r Subjects R e g i s t r a r o f V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a , December 1 9 , 1938. ^Number o f b i r t h s and age d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia." S u p e r i n t e n d e n t o f E d u c a t i o n , V i c t o r i a , December 1 5 , 1938. " D i s t r i b u t i o n of p u p i l s I n h i g h s c h o o l s by s u b j e c t s t a k e n . " B. R e f e r e n c e s . A n d e r s o n , Dewey and Rhode, E l l i s G. "Troublesome S i t u a t i o n i n C a l i f o r n i a , " Nation's Schools, X V I I , ( F e b r u a r y 1936), pp. 34-35. "Attendance I n c r e a s e " , Vancouver O c t o b e r 6, 1939.  Dally Province,  Vancouver,  " B i r t h - R a t e " . E n c y c l o p a e d i a B r i t a n n i c a , p . 652, 14 e d . 1937. '  Vol.Ill,'  " C i t y ' s S c h o o l s Get I c e P l a n t s . " V a n c o u v e r D a i l y V a n c o u v e r , S e p t e m b e r 1 2 , 1939~i ~  Province,  "A C o u n t i n g o f H e a d s . " V a n c o u v e r O c t o b e r 4, 1939.  Vancouver,  Daily Province,  D o u g l a s , P a u l H. " L a b o r T u r n o v e r . " E n c y c l o p a e d i a o f S o c i a l S e r v i c e s , p p . 7 0 9 - 7 1 3 , M a c m i l l a n , V I I I , .(1938) E l l a s s e n , R. H. and A n d e r s o n B.W."Supply o f T e a c h e r s and t h e Demand" E d u c a t i o n R e s e a r c h B u l l e t i n , IX,(November 5, 1930) p p . 437-4"Y3  G r a n t , A. a n d C o w l e y , W. H. " T e c h n i q u e f o r A n a l y z i n g t h e S u p p l y a n d Demand f o r E d u c a t i o n a l W o r k e r s . " S c h o o l and S o c i e t y , X X I X , (May 1 1 , 1929) pp.618-620. H e l t o n , Roy. "Old P e o p l e : A R i s i n g N a t i o n a l Problem." R e a d e r ' s D i g e s t . XXXV, No. 2 1 1 , (November 1 9 3 9 ) , p . 3 0 . H u f f a k e r , C. L . T e a c h e r S u p p l y a n d Demand i n Oregon. U n i v e r s i t y o r Oregon P u b l i c a t i o n V o l . I I , No. 5 Eugene. U n i v e r s i t y o f Oregon ( J a n u a r y 1931) " L a c k o f T e a c h e r s i n E n g l a n d a n d Wales ( C e r t i f i c a t e d ) " . Times E d u c a t i o n a l S u p p l e m e n t , 7 8 3 , (May 3, 1930) p.199 M a n u a l o f t h e S c h o o l Law f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , S e c t i o n 145, (1937)  Victoria,  M i l l s , P. C. S t a t i s t i c a l M e t h o d s , p . 1 3 0 . New Y o r k , H e n r y H o l t and" Company, 1936"; "Occupational Outlook f o r Elementary Schools." Elementary S c h o o l J o u r n a l , X X X I X , (December, 1938) p . 2 5 0 . P a r s o n s , Rhey Boyd. "Study o f t h e R e l a t i o n o f S u p p l y o f T e a c h e r s t o t h e Demand f o r T e a c h e r s . " E l e m e n t a r y S c h o o l J o u r n a l , X X X V I , ( O c t o b e r , 1935) p p . 97-104 P o p u l a t i o n T r e n d s a n d T h e i r E d u c a t i o n a l I m p l i c a t i o n s , p p . 33-34 W a s h i n g t o n : N a t i o n a l S d u c a t T o n A s s o c i a t i o n XTTTTo. 1, ( J a n u a r y 1938) P r i n c i p a l , Vancouver Normal S c h o o l , P r i v a t e L e t t e r , A p r i l 19, 1940. " R e g u l a t i o n s f o r A d m i s s i o n t o t h e N o r m a l S c h o o l s , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1940." S a l a r i e s a n d Q u a l i f i c a t i o n s o f C a n a d i a n T e a c h e r s , p p . 2-3. O t t a w a , D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , r937T S t e r n s , F r e d H. "New S i g n p o s t s f o r I n d u s t r y . " B a r r o n ' s , The N a t i o n a l F i n a n c i a l W e e k l y , XX No. 9 , " ( F e b r u a r y 2 6 , 1940) p . 3 : — "Summary a n d I n t e r p r e t a t i o n ' , ' U n i t e d S t a t e s O f f i c e o f E d u c a t i o n , B u l l e t i n 1933, No. 1 0 . V o l . V I , N a t i o n a l S u r v e y o f E d u c a t i o n o f T e a c h e r s , W a s h i n g t o n , Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1935, p p . x i i i 4-2-53 Superannuation Commissioner, V i c t o r i a , P r i v a t e L e t t e r , A p r i l 2 2 , 1940. " P e r c e n t a g e o f R e f u n d s g o i n g t o Women T e a c h e r s .  S u p p l y and Demand I n t h e P r o f e s s i o n s i n C a n a d a , D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , 1937" pp.56 " T e a c h e r s P l a n P e n s i o n s Law" S e p t e m b e r 2 6 , 1939.  Vancouver  Ottawa,  Dally Province  T o u s e n d , M. E r n e s t . " T e a c h e r s : S u p p l y and Demand--To-days S i t u a t i o n and t h e P r o b l e m o f P r e d i c t i o n . " Occupations, X I V , ( O c t o b e r , 1935) p p . 2 1 - 2 5 . ~ U m s t a t t e l , J . E. "improved O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r Teachers-E d u c a t i o n G r a d u a t e s . " E d u c a t i o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and S u p e r i n t e n d e n c e , X X I I ( N o v e m b e r , 1936) pp.619-624. "Unemployed T e a c h e r s i n E n g l a n d " T i m e s E d u c a t i o n a l S u p p l e m e n t , 1087 ( F e b r u a r y 2 9 , 1936) p.77"  

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