UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

An investigation into the supply of and demand for teachers in British Columbia Brown, James Everett 1940

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AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE SUPPLY OP AND DEMAND FOR TEACHERS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA By James E v e r e t t Brown A T h e s i s s u b m i t t e d i n P a r t i a l F u l f i l m e n t o f The Requirements f o r t h e Degree o f M A S T E R OF A R T S i n t h e Department of EDUCATION THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA APRIL, 1940 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I w i s h t o acknowledge i n p a r t i c u l a r the generous a s s i s t a n c e of Mr. G. B. Wood, A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r of t h e U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, who w i t h u n f a i l i n g k i n d n e s s d i r e c t e d my wandering s t e p s and who a l s o a t c o n s i d e r a b l e c o s t i n t i m e s e c u r e d and s u p p l i e d t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p e r t a i n i n g t o the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the major s u b j e c t s among t h e graduates of th e Teacher T r a i n i n g Course a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. I am a l s o i n d e b t e d t o v a r i o u s members o f t h e Department of E d u c a t i o n a t V i c t o r i a f o r much a s s i s t a n c e i n s e c u r i n g d a t a . Mr. J . L. Watson, R e g i s t r a r , most g e n e r o u s l y gave me acce s s t o h i s r e c o r d s . M i s s J . L. MoLenaghen and C o l o n e l F. T. F a i r e y s u p p l i e d i n f o r m a t i o n r e l a t i n g t o t h e i r departments. Inspecta? A. E. M i l l e r o f R e v e l s t o k e k i n d l y p e r m i t t e d me t h e use o f h i s own p e r s o n a l l i b r a r y and a r r a n g e d f o r my e n t r a n c e i n t o the o f f i c e s of t h e E d u c a t i o n Department a t V i c t o r i a . I am f u r t h e r i n d e b t e d t o Mr. H. B. F r e n c h , Deputy Re-g i s t r a r of B i r t h s , Deaths and M a r r i a g e s f o r B r i t i s h Columbia and t o Mr. Norman B a k e r , S u p e r a n n u a t i o n Commissioner. To t h e s e and many o t h e r s I w i s h t o ex p r e s s my s i n c e r e thanks f o r t h e k i n d and co u r t e o u s way i n wh i c h t h e y answered my r e q u e s t s f o r i n f o r m a t i o n and w h i l e t h e y a r e i n no way r e -s p o n s i b l e f o r any e r r o r s o r d e f e c t s t h e r e may be i n t h e en-s u i n g pages n e v e r t h e l e s s w i t h o u t t h e i r i n v a l u a b l e a i d t h i s s t u d y would have been w e l l - n i g h i m p o s s i b l e of achievement. <?»E .Be CONTENTS • CHAPTER Page I . INTRODUCTION 1 A. Purpose of the I n v e s t i g a t i o n B. Importance of a Ba l a n c e Between S u p p l y and Demand C. Nature of the I n v e s t i g a t i o n I I . SUMMARY OP SIMILAR INVESTIGATIONS IN OTHER COUNTRIES 9i2 A. I n the U n i t e d S t a t e s B. I n Canada C. I n v e s t i g a t i o n s Elsewhere I I I . FACTORS AFFECTING THE DEMAND FOR TEACHERS--A. T o t a l S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n as i t i s a f f e c t e d by V a r i o u s F a c t o r s B. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n as a f f e c t e d by V a r i o u s F a c t o r s C. The Number of S e p a r a t i o n s D. Economic C o n d i t i o n s IV. A STATISTICAL STUDY OF SOME FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND 83 A« S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n B« Number o f S e p a r a t i o n s C. Apparent Demand f o r New T e a c h e r s - - E x p a n s i o n o r C o n t r a c t i o n P l u s S e p a r a t i o n s V. FACTORS AFFECTING THE SUPPLY OP TEACHERS 83 A* R e l a t i v e A t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f t h e Te a c h i n g P r o f e s s i o n B. Requirements of the Te a c h i n g P r o f e s s i o n A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS CHAPTER -VI. A STATISTICAL EXAMINATION OP THE SUPPLY OF TEACHERS A. The Number of T e a c h i n g C e r t i f i c a t e s I s s u e d B. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f New Teachers by Sex and C e r t i f i c a t C. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Academic C e r t i f i c a t e s by Major S u b j e c t s . D. D i s t r i b u t i o n of P u p i l s A c c o r d i n g t o S u b j e c t s Taken E. Numbers of P u p i l s T a k i n g t h e T e c h n i c a l S u b j e c t s F. The Accumulated S u r p l u s o f Teachers V I I . THE CHANGING CHARACTER OF THE TEACHING PERSONNEL AS IT AFFECTS SUPPLY AND DEMAND A. The I n c r e a s i n g P r o p o r t i o n o f Men B. I n c r e a s i n g P r o p o r t i o n of H i g h e r C e r t i f i c a t e s C . R e l a t i v e S t a b i l i t y Based on C e r t i f i c a t i o n D. R e l a t i v e S t a b i l i t y Based on S a l a r i e s V I I I . THE USE OF THE MEDIAN YEARS OF EXPERIENCE TO DETERMINE TURNOVER I X . FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS A. A Summarization o f t h e F i n d i n g s B. Recommendations LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 " The Growth i n P o p u l a t i o n by Decades E x p r e s s e d as a Percentage of t h e P o p u l a t i o n of the P r e v i o u s Decade f o r Canada from 1871-1931 and F i v e Other C o u n t r i e s from 1901-1931. 54 I I The Growth i n P o p u l a t i o n by Decades E x p r e s s e d as a Percentage of t h e P o p u l a t i o n o f t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r t h e P r o v i n c e s of Canada i n c l u d i n g Yukon and t h e N o r t h West T e r r i t o r i e s f r o m 1871 t o 1931. 57 I I I The I n c r e a s e i n P o p u l a t i o n and S c h o o l Enrolment by Decades as a Percentage of t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r B r i t i s h Columbia f r o m 1871-1941. 58 IV Enrolment i n s e l e c t e d p a r t s of the S c h o o l System f o r B r i t i s h C olumbia, 1918-1938. 62 V Number of B i r t h s p e r 1000 P o p u l a t i o n f o r Each P r o v i n c e and Canada, 1921-1933. 66 V I Number of B i r t h s , B i r t h - R a t e , and P o p u l a t i o n f o r B r i t i s h Columbia, 1928-38 I n c l u s i v e . 66 J V I I Number p e r 1000 of P o p u l a t i o n by Age Groups f o r Census Years f o r Canada 1871-1931 67 V I I I P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of S c h o o l Attendance of P o p u l a t i o n 5 t o 19 y e a r s of Age I n c l u s i v e , f o r Canada 69 IX P e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n of R u r a l and Urban P o p u l a t i o n by Decades, 1891-1931, f o r B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada. 71 X D i s t r i b u t i o n of S c h o o l Enrolment i n B r i t i s h Columbia by C l a s s e s f o r F o u r D i f f e r e n t Y e a r s i n A c t u a l Numbers and by Percentage of T o t a l 73 X I D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Teachers and P u p i l s A c c o r d i n g t o t h e D i f f e r e n t C l a s s e s of S c h o o l s and D i s t r i c t s , 1937-38 74 X I I Number of C o n t r i b u t o r s , Refundsand P e n s i o n s G r a n t e d , N o n - A c t i v e Accounts and S e p a r a t i o n s by Y e a r s , from A p r i l 1 s t , 1929 t o March 31,1939 80 Table Page X I I I D i s t r i b u t i o n o f the Demand f o r New Teachers C r e a t e d by Ex p a n s i o n or C o n t r a c t i o n , With-drawls and R e t i r e m e n t s , 1929-1939 I n c l u s i v e . 82 XIV D i s t r i b u t i o n of C e r t i f i c a t e s I s s u e d Each Y e a r , by I n s t i t u t i o n s and Sex, 1922-39 I n c l u s i v e . 92 XV D i s t r i b u t i o n by Years of Major S u b j e c t s , of a l l Students C o m p l e t i n g t h e Teacher T r a i n i n g Course, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1923-39 I n c l u s i v e 97 XVI D i s t r i b u t i o n of P u p i l s , I n s t r u c t o r s and Centres Engaged i n Manual T r a i n i n g and Home Economics by Y e a r s , 1923-39 I n c l u s i v e . 102 X V I I D i s t r i b u t i o n of P u p i l s by Years f o r Commercial and A g r i c u l t u r e , 1922-23 and 1929-39 I n c l u s i v e 105 X V I I I Demand, by F a c t o r s , Supply and S u r p l u s of Teachers by Y e a r s , 1922-39 I n c l u s i v e . 109 XIX D i s t r i b u t i o n of Teachers by Y e a r s , A c c o r d i n g t o C e r t i f i c a t e s and Sex, i n B r i t i s h Columbia 1913-39 I n c l u s i v e 114 XX D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Teachers by Sex i n V a r i o u s Types of Sc h o o l s f o r B r i t i s h Columbia f o r th e Year 1935-36. 117 XXI I n c r e a s e i n C e r t i f i c a t e s from 1923-39j Number I s s u e d D u r i n g the 16 y e a r s ; Excess over E x p a n s i o n and Y e a r l y Rate o f Turnover f o r B r i t i s h Columbia 120 X X I I Median Years of S e r v i c e of a l l Teachers by Sex, D i s t r i c t s and Types of Schools f o r 1935-36 123 X X I I I Average S a l a r i e s by C l a s s e s of D i s t r i c t s and Types o f Sc h o o l s f o r t h e Y e a r 1936-37 124 XXIV C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f Teachers by Sex and Exper-i e n c e i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1935-36 127 XXV ' C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Teache.rs by Y e a r s o f E x p e r i e n c e , f o r C i t i e s , D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i -t i e s , R u r a l D i s t r i c t s and t h e P r o v i n c e by I n t e r v a l s of 5 y e a r s , f o r y e a r 1935-36 131 LIST OP ILLUSTRATIONS I l l u s t r a t i o n Pag© 1 The P o p u l a t i o n of Canada "by Decades, 1871 t o 1931 56 "2 The P o p u l a t i o n and S c h o o l Enrolment f o r B r i t i s h Columbia by Decades, 1871-1931 60 3 S c h o o l Attendance f o r Ele m e n t a r y and High S c h o o l s and Grade I f o r B r i t i s h f r o m 1918-to-1938, As a t June 3 0 t h , of Each Y e a r 64 4 D i s t r i b u t i o n of C e r t i f i c a t e s I s s u e d Each Y e a r by Sex a t the Three I n s t i t u t i o n s , 1922-39 I n c l u s i v e 93 5 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e S u p p l y of and Demand f o r Teachers by Y e a r s , 1921-39, I n c l u s i v e . (Data f r o m Table X V I I I ) 111 6 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Teachers by Sex, 1913-39 I n c l u s i v e , f o r B r i t i s h Columbia 115 7 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Each C l a s s of C e r t i f i c a t e by Years f o r the P e r i o d 1913-39 I n c l u s i v e 118 8. Column Diagram: D i s t r i b u t i o n of Years of E x p e r i e n c e f o r Teachers i n C i t i e s , D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t i e s , R u r a l D i s t r i c t s , and f o r th e E n t i r e P r o v i n c e f o r the Y e a r 1935-36. ( C l a s s I n t e r v a l — 5 y e a r s . ) 130 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION A« Purpose of the I n v e s t i g a t i o n . T h i s s t u d y r e p r e s e n t s the f i r s t attempt t o d i s c o v e r t h e e x a c t c o n d i t i o n , n u m e r i c a l l y s p e a k i n g , o f t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n i n B r i t i s h C olumbia. I n s p e c t o r s of s c h o o l s , heads of t h e t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s and o f f i c i a l s o f t h e D e p a r t -ment of E d u c a t i o n have been aware t h a t i n c e r t a i n r e c e n t y e a r s many new t e a c h e r s f a i l e d t o s e c u r e p o s i t i o n s . Indeed t h i s f a c t became so g e n e r a l l y known t h a t a number of p o s s -i b l e c a n d i d a t e s r e f r a i n e d f r o m a t t e n d i n g t h e normal s c h o o l s w i t h a consequent swing t o t h e o t h e r extreme. W h i l e th u s c o g n i s a n t of t h e s u r p l u s o r s h o r t a g e , no p r o p e r c o r r e c t i v e a c t i o n c o u l d be t a k e n because no one knew e i t h e r t h e e x t e n t or d u r a t i o n o f t h e d i s p a r i t y . • f ' Canada has been s i n g u l a r l y d e v o i d of s u c h i n v e s t i g a t i o n s . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y r e m a r k a b l e when one c o n s i d e r s t h e r e -l a t i v e l y l a r g e number t h a t have been u n d e r t a k e n i n t h e n e i g h -b o r i n g r e p u b l i c t o t h e s o u t h . Indeed s t a r t i n g as f a r back as 1924 and o c c u r r i n g w i t h i n c r e a s i n g f r e q u e n c y s i n c e 1929 t h e r e a re now so many s u r v e y s , b o t h s t a t e and n a t i o n wide t h a t i t has become n e c e s s a r y t o make a p e r i o d i c a l s u r v e y of the s u r v e y s .* Not so i n Canada] To d a t e no r e p o r t has been d i s c o v e r e d t o i n d i c a t e any s u c h i n q u i r y i n any of t h e P r o v i n c e s • The o n l y l i g h t thrown on t h e Canadian s i t u a t i o n 1. R. H. E l i a s s e n and E. W. Anderson, "Supply o f t e a c h e r s and t h e Demand." E d u c a t i o n R e s e a r c h B u l l e t i n , , I X , (November 5, 1950) pp, 437-473. ~ 2 has been t h a t produced by the Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s t o which a more extended r e f e r e n c e w i l l be made l a t e r . T h i s s t u d y has been c a r r i e d out i n the hope t h a t c e r t a i n gaps i n our I n f o r m a t i o n c o u l d be f i l l e d i n , c o n c e r n i n g t h e t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l of B r i t i s h Columbia. To t h a t end, a f t e r c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s e a r c h , we have t r i e d t o p r e s e n t the changes t h a t have o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e l a s t t e n t o f i f t e e n y e a r s i n p o i n t of s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e , number of t e a c h e r s employed,numbers of normal and t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g g r a d u a t e s , and numbers of sep-a r a t i o n s t o mention a few of the i t e m s , i n o r d e r t h a t i t may be p o s s i b l e t o d e c i d e w i t h some degree of a c c u r a c y whether t h e r e i s s t i l l a s u r p l u s of t e a c h e r s , a n d i f so t o what e x t e n t . I t i s f u r t h e r hoped t h a t i n B r i t i s h Columbia we s h a l l soon w i t n e s s a d e f i n i t e attempt t o r e g u l a t e t h e s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s t o t h e demand f o r them. T h i s cannot be done w i t h o u t t h e ex-p e n d i t u r e of t i m e and e f f o r t . O b v i o u s l y the t a s k of f o r e c a s t -i n g i s f r a u g h t w i t h many p i t f a l l s . At b e s t t h e f u t u r e demand i s an e s t i m a t e . I t i s e q u a l l y obvious however t h a t the more t h o r o u g h l y the v a r i o u s f a c t o r s are a n a l y z e d and s y s t e m a t i z e d the more r e l i a b l e i s the e s t i m a t e . Because of the v a r i a b i l i t y and f l u i d i t y of human a c t i o n s no s i n g l e i n v e s t i g a t i o n can ever succeed i n r e f l e c t i n g more tha n t h e p a s t , p r e s e n t a n d ^ f u t u r e . The g r e a t e r t h e time l a p s e between p r o g n o s t i c a t i o n and f u l f i l m e n t the l e s s r e l i a b l e are the r e s u l t s and c o n s e q u e n t l y a s u c c e s s f u l method of b a l a n c i n g demand and s u p p l y must i n c l u d e a con-2. Supply and Demand i n the P r o f e s s i o n s i n Canada,pp.7-8, Ottawa, Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s , 1937. t i n u a l r e v i s i o n o f the "basic d a t a . F o r t h a t r e a s o n t h i s i n -q u i r y cannot do more t h a n commence t h e f o u n d a t i o n s f o r some such t h o r o u g h - g o i n g scheme. I f i t has succeeded, i n some measure, t o do t h i s t h e a u t h o r w i l l f e e l amply recompensed. One of t h e b e n e f i c i a r i e s would most c e r t a i n l y be t h e t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s . A t p r e s e n t t h e y f i n d them-s e l v e s unable t o s e t t l e c o r r e c t l y c e r t a i n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r o -blems. The e x t e n t of t h e f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e d t o t r a i n the r e q u i r e d number of t e a c h e r s p e r y e a r would become much l e s s a m a t t e r of g u e s s . Teachers c o u l d be d i r e c t e d i n t o t h e var» i o u s branches o f the p r o f e s s i o n i n p r o p o r t i o n t o the r e l a t i v e demands f o r each . E n t r a n o e r e q u i r e m e n t s c o u l d be a d j u s t e d more a c c u r a t e l y t o e x c l u d e a u t o m a t i c a l l y any l a r g e numbers i n excess of t h e demand and thus t o make i t p o s s i b l e t o s e -cure the b e s t o f t h a t group wh i c h can be a t t r a c t e d t o t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n . No l e s s c o u l d p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s be g i v e n more p r e -c i s e guidance d u r i n g t h e l a t t e r y e a r s of h i g h s c h o o l work. P r i n c i p a l s might r e p o r t t h e number o f l i k e l y and s u i t a b l e c a n d i d a t e s i n t h e i r s c h o o l s . I f n e c e s s a r y ; s t u d e n t s might t h e n be chosen on a p r o r a t a b a s i s . Seldom, i n the p a s t , has t h e a t t e n d a n c e c o r r e s p o n d e d w i t h t h e demand. There can be no doubt t h a t t h i s l a c k of b a l a n c e was l a r g e l y due t o i g n o r a n c e b o t h on t h e p a r t o f t h e s t u d e n t s and of t h e i n -s t i t u t i o n s . The i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y a l l round a r i s i n g f r o m the a p p l i c a t i o n of a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s of s u p p l y and demand would amply r e p a y t h e e f f o r t expended i n d e t e r m i n i n g them. T h i s S t udy, however, may render a more immediate s e r -v i c e "by e x p o s i n g a d d i t i o n a l problems • I t would appear t h a t one of t h e most p o t e n t f a c t o r s i n i n c r e a s i n g the years of s e r v i c e o f t e a c h e r s i n g e n e r a l i s t o make t h e i r r e m u n e r a t i o n r e a s o n a b l y h i g h but more p a r t i c u l a r l y t o make i t approach the maximum of t h a t c l a s s of t e a c h e r t o w h i c h t h e y b e l o n g . I t would be i n t e r e s t i n g t o know, f o r example, what f a c t o r s a re o p e r a t i v e i n r e t a i n i n g t e a c h e r s , e s p e c i a l l y women, i n the p r o f e s s i o n . Does the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r m a r r i a g e determine the r a t e a t w h i c h women t e a c h e r s withdraw and i s the o p p o r t u n i t y i n any way a f f e c t e d b y d i f f e r e n c e s i n wage groups or d i f f -erences i n l o c a t i o n ? S i m i l a r l y i t may soon be i m p o r t a n t t o know t o what e x t e n t e n t r a n c e r e q u i r e m e n t s can be r a i s e d be-f o r e r e d u c i n g the number of c a n d i d a t e s below the minimum number i f no a l t e r a t i o n i s made i n the p r e s e n t c o n d i t i o n s of work and pay. These and o t h e r q u e s t i o n s have come t o mini as t h e d a t a have been c o l l e c t e d and o r g a n i z e d . I t w i l l be more c o n v e n i e n t , however t o m e n t i o n them as t h e y a r i s e . B. Importance of a B a l a n c e Between S u p p l y and Demand. A number of American w r i t e r s on t h e s u b j e c t have s t r e s s -ed the importance of s t r i k i n g a b a l a n c e between s u p p l y and demand. W i t h t h i s t h e r e can be l i t t l e d i s a g r e e m e n t . Noth-i n g d e s t r o y s t h e morale of t h e t e a c h i n g body more t h a n the knowledge t h a t t h e r e a r e l a r g e numbers of i d l e t e a c h e r s . I t produces a d e c i d e d f e e l i n g of i n s e c u r i t y b o t h f o r p o s i t i o n s and income. Unemployed t e a c h e r s a l l t o o f r e q u e n t l y o f f e r t h e i r s e r v i c e s a t g r e a t l y r e d u c e d p r i c e s . Many s c h o o l boards are not s l o w t o t a k e advantage of the changed c o n d i t i o n s and f r e q u e n t l y make use of the s i t u a t i o n t o depress s a l a r i e s . A s e r i o u s s h o r t a g e of t e a c h e r s i s almost e q u a l l y as bad f o r the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n as i t r e s u l t s i n l o w e r e d s t a n d a r d s . Low-e r e d s t a n d a r d s reduce t h e average a b i l i t y of t h e t e a c h i n g body by p e r m i t t i n g v a c a n c i e s t o be f i l l e d w i t h p o o r e r t e a c h -e r s . There i s a consequent l o s s i n the amount of e d u c a t i o n a l p r o g r e s s and p r o f e s s i o n a l growth and i f t h e s i t u a t i o n con-t i n u e s may perchance l e a d t o a d e f i n i t e r e g r e s s i o n . There i s n o t h i n g q u i t e so d i s h e a r t e n i n g t o a young p e r -son as t o have expended b o t h money and time t o p r e p a r e f o r a v o c a t i o n o n l y t o f i n d t h e s a c r i f i c e and e f f o r t were t o no a v a i l . The u s u a l consequences of a bad s t a r t p l a g u e th e be-g i n n e r - -reduced r e s o u r c e s , wasted t i m e , and l o s t momentum. How much b e t t e r i t i s f o r t h o s e who are p r e p a r i n g themselves f o r the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n t o know t h a t t h e r e w i l l be a p o s i t i o n f o r them, p r o v i d e d t h e y are s u f f i c i e n t l y p r o f i c i e n t t o be d e s e r v i n g . I n t h i s day o f g r e a t e r v o c a t i o n a l guidance i t does not seem good enough t o l e a v e t o chance s u c h an im-p o r t a n t f a c t o r as the q u a l i t y of t h e s u p p l y . A s c h o o l system i s no b e t t e r t h a n i t s t e a c h e r s . To under-mine a good t e a c h i n g s t a f f by s u b m i t t i n g i t t o u n c o n t r o l l e d c o m p e t i t i o n o r by a l l o w i n g t h e i n f i l t r a t i o n of p o o r l y p r e -p a r e d b e g i n n e r s i s t o a f f e c t s e r i o u s l y t h e p r o f i c i e n c y of any s c h o o l system. I t i s almost a x i o m a t i e t h a t t e a c h e r s as a c l a s s r e c e i v e s m a l l e r f i n a n c i a l r e t u r n s f o r t h e amount of p r e p a r a t i o n and a b i l i t y r e q u i r e d t h a n i s t r u e o f any o t h e r group o f w o r k e r s . The compensating f a c t o r i s t h e g r e a t e r s e c u r i t y . When, however, s e c u r i t y i s i n j e o p a r d y and t h e a l r e a d y s m a l l income i s "being g r e a t l y reduced i t becomes i n -c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t t o a t t r a c t e i t h e r new t a l e n t of t h e r e -q u i r e d c a p a c i t y o r r e t a i n t he o l d . Sudden and pronounced changes i n c o n d i t i o n s seem t o cause more s e r i o u s r e p e r c u s s i o n s t h a n do s t e a d y though sub-normal ones. E v e n t u a l l y c o n d i t i o n s r i g h t themselves whether any attempt i s made t o e x e r c i s e c o n t r o l o r n o t , as even t h i s s t u d y shows { see page 103), but always t h e r e f o l l o w s a swing t o t h e o t h e r extreme. I n t e l l i g e n t c o n t r o l s h o u l d e l i m i n a t e the e xcesses o f t h e s e swings w i t h a consequent b e n e f i t t o a l l — i n t h i s case not o n l y t o t h e p r e s e n t t e a c h e r s , p r o -s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s and t h e e n t i r e s c h o o l system but t o t h e . . . . . . . . . . . . . whole of s o c i e t y . T h e r e f o r e one cannot b u t f e e l t h a t any d e v i c e , even though i t be b u t p a r t i a l l y s u c c e s s f u l , w h i c h tends t o b a l a n c e s u p p l y and demand i s r e n d e r i n g a s e r v i c e t o mankind. 0. Nature of t h e I n v e s t i g a t i o n . F o r t h e purposes o f t h i s s t u d y t h e f o l l o w i n g e x p r e s s i o n s have been used t h r o u g h o u t as here s t a t e d . By demand i s u n d e r s t o o d the number of p o s i t i o n s p e r y e a r c r e a t e d by t h e remo v a l o f t e a c h e r s , f o r any cause what-s o e v e r , from t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n p l u s or minus any p o s i -t i o n s due t o an i n c r e a s e o r de c r e a s e i n t h e s c h o o l enrolment. I t thus e q u a l s t h e t o t a l number of v a c a n c i e s I n a y e a r l e s s th e number f i l l e d by an i n t e r c h a n g e o f t e a c h e r s . By s u p p l y i s meant the t o t a l number of q u a l i f i e d t e a c h -ers a t any one p e r i o d w i l l i n g and anxious t o s e c u r e a p o s i -t i o n * I t would i n c l u d e t h e graduates of each y e a r p l u s those from p r e v i o u s years who had not been p l a c e d , but who s t i l l so d e s i r e d , p l u s any who might be r e t u r n i n g t o the p r o f e s s i o n a f t e r a l a p s e of t i m e . Many i n v e s t i g a t o r s p r e f e r t o c o n s i d e r demand as t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s and s u p p l y as the t o t a l number of t e a c h e r s - - a c t i v e and n o n - a c t i v e — b u t as t h i s s t u d y i s p a r t i c u l a r l y concerned w i t h t h e s u r p l u s o r s h o r t a g e of t e a c h e r s , i t i s not so r e a d i l y brought out on t h a t b a s i s . I n a c t u a l f a c t the d a t a r e l a t i v e t o s u p p l y have been of n e c e s s i t y c o n f i n e d t o t h e f i r s t group c o m p r i s i n g i t - - n a m e l y g r a d u a t e s . There seems t o be no known method s h o r t of a complete canvass of f o r m e r graduates t o determine how many are s t i l l p o t e n t i a l l y p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s . A new t e a c h e r i s one who was not i n a s c h o o l system i n t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r o r years (except t h o s e on exchange o u t s i d e of t h e P r o v i n c e ) . T h i s would i n c l u d e c h i e f l y g r a d -u a t e s and a few r e t u r n i n g t o t h e p r o f e s s i o n a f t e r an absence of a y e a r o r more. T o t a l s e p a r a t i o n s a r e t h e t o t a l number o f t e a c h e r s who l e a v e t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n f o r any r e a s o n whatsoever, i n each p e r i o d o f t i m e . T u r n o v e r i s t a k e n t o mean, i n t h i s c a s e , t h e number of new t e a c h e r s p l a c e d p e r y e a r . The number o f exchanges means t h e number o f p o s i t i o n s f i l l e d by an i n t e r c h a n g e of t e a c h e r s • Replacements s t a n d f o r t h e number of t e a c h e r s r e q u i r e d t o f i l l t h e v a c a n c i e s c r e a t e d by t h o s e who l e a v e t h e p r o -f e s s i o n * The demand equals t h e replacements when t h e r e i s no change i n t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n . Many a u t h o r s use the t e r m " t u r n o v e r " t o c o v e r exchanges p l u s replacements but t h a t meaning does not s e r v e t h e r e -quirements o f t h i s i n q u i r y . The p r o c e d u r e employed b y t h i s s t u d y has c o n s i s t e d of f o l l o w i n g t h e t r e n d of each f a c t o r o v er a p e r i o d of t e n t o f i f t e e n y e a r s depending upon the l e n g t h of time f o r w h i c h t h e r e have been any d a t a . Other i n v e s t i g a t i o n s have con-f i n e d themselves t o t h e r e s u l t s of a s i n g l e y e a r . The form-e r method has c e r t a i n advantages i n t h a t i t b r i n g s t o l i g h t any marked changes t h a t have o c c u r r e d i n the p a s t and a v o i d s the danger of assuming t h e r e s u l t s of any p a r t i c u l a r y e a r t o be t y p i c a l . Other d i f f e r e n c e s a r i s e f r om t h e mode of s e c u r i n g t h e b a s i c d a t a . Almost w i t h o u t e x c e p t i o n Amerioan i n v e s t i g a t o r s have used t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e method. I n some cases t h e p r o -cedure has c o n s i s t e d of n o t h i n g more e l a b o r a t e t h a n a c i r -c u l a r i z a t i o n of a l l the s t a t e s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s w i t h a r e q u e s t t h a t t h e y i n d i c a t e how many t e a c h e r s t h e y thought would be p l a c e d i n t h e y e a r , and how many c e r t i f i c a t e s would be i s s u e d d u r i n g t h e y e a r . O b v i o u s l y t h e r e l i a b i l i t y of t h e r e s u l t s from s u c h a p r o c e d u r e depended upon t h e a c c u r a c y of the o b s e r v a t i o n s of each s t a t e s u p e r i n t e n d e n t which i n many cases w e r e * n o t h i n g b e t t e r t h a n g u e s s e s . Others have gone t o c o n s i d e r a b l e l e n g t h s , s e n d i n g out q u e s t i o n n a i r e s t o a l l t e a c h e r s , e n l i s t i n g t he h e l p o f c i t y s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s and ot h e r s t o t r a c e r e c e n t g r a d u a t e s who were no l o n g e r on t h e l i s t s o f a c t i v e t e a c h e r s , and even i n some cases r e r e g i s t e r -i n g a l l employed t e a c h e r s . Such d e t a i l e d schemes were r e -s t r i c t e d t o s t a t e - w i d e s u r v e y s . T h i s n a t u r a l l y produced much more e x a c t r e s u l t s , E s s e n t i a l l y a l l m a t e r i a l i s c o l l e c t -ed f r om r e p o r t s and t o t h a t e x t e n t t h e r e can be no d i s t i n c -t i o n between t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y and o t h e r s i m i l a r s t u d i e s , except t h a t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y was d e r i v -ed almost e n t i r e l y f r o m s t a n d a r d government r e p o r t s o f v a r i o u s k i n d s r a t h e r t h a n f r o m t h e answers t o a p a r t i c u l a r q u e s t i o n -n a i r e . T h i s l a s t d i f f e r e n c e has meant t h a t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i s nev e r up t o date as compared t o t h a t o b t a i n e d by t h e q u e s t i o n -n a i r e method but s i n c e a l l government r e p o r t s are compulsory, c o n t i n u o u s and u n i f o r m i n c o n t e n t t h i s d e l a y i s compensated f o r by an e q u a l i f not g r e a t e r degree of a c c u r a c y . Most of the m a t e r i a l used i n t h i s i n q u i r y has been g a i n -ed f rom t h e An n u a l R e p o r t s of t h e Department o f E d u c a t i o n f<T B r i t i s h Columbia and f r o m t h e Canada Y e a r Books p r e p a r e d by the Dominion Bureau o f Statistics» A d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n has been s e c u r e d f r o m t h e Annual Report f o r the Teachers'' P e n s i o n A c t , f rom t h e A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r o f the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, f r o m t h e R e g i s t r a r of t h e Department of E d u c a t i o n , V i c t o r i a ; t h e Bureau of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a ; t h e D i r e c t o r s 1 of Home Economics and Manual T r a i n i n g , V i c t -o r i a ; and from two b u l l e t i n s p u b l i s h e d by the Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , E d u c a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s B r a n c h , Ottawa. R e f e r -ences w i l l be made t o t h e s e sources a t the a p p r o p r i a t e p l a c e s . C e r t a i n d e s i r a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v e d t o be v e r y h a r d t o g e t . Whenever a t e a c h e r l e a v e s t h e p r o f e s s i o n t h i s o c c u r s w i t h o u t any c o r r e s p o n d i n g r e c o r d of t h e e v e n t . Hence i t has been e x c e e d i n g l y d i f f i c u l t t o determine how many t e a c h e r s q u i t t e a c h i n g each y e a r — a most Important t h i n g t o know when t r y i n g t o e s t i m a t e the demand. F o r t u n a t e l y s i n c e 1929 t e a c h -ers who f o r any r e a s o n withdraw from a c t i v e s e r v i c e may s e c u r e a r e f u n d o f t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e Teachers» Pen-s i o n Fund. S i n c e a r e c o r d o f t h e number of y e a r l y r e f u n d s has been ke p t i t has been p o s s i b l e t o d i s c o v e r how many s e p a r a -t i o n s t h e r e have been p e r y e a r . ( A s m a l l e r r o r a r i s e s a t t h i s p o i n t due t o t h e f a c t t h a t some a p p a r e n t l y s t o p t e a c h i n g but do not a t once ask f o r t h e i r r e f u n d ) . However even t h e s e d a t a are d e f i c i e n t i n c e r t a i n r e s p e c t s because no n o t e i s made of s e x , y e a r s of e x p e r i e n c e , c l a s s o f c e r t i f i c a t e , t y p e of work, o r t y p e of s c h o o l t o which t h e r e t i r i n g t e a c h e r b e l o n g s . Such i n f o r m a t i o n would no doubt c o n f i r m t h e s u s -p i c i o n t h a t d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s o f t e a c h e r s have d i s t i n c t r a t e s o f s e p a r a t i o n b o t h a b s o l u t e l y and r e l a t i v e l y . However u s e f u l i t might be, s u c h knowledge must await t h e time when a more t h o r o u g h - g o i n g and comprehensive r e c o r d o f the t e a c h -i n g p e r s o n n e l i s c o m p i l e d . And now h a v i n g b r i e f l y s u g g e s t e d t h e p u r p o s e , v a l u e and modus o p e r a n d i o f t h i s s t u d y i t i s time t o t u r n t o a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f the problem i t s e l f . 12 . , CHAPTER TT Summary of S i m i l a r I n v e s t i g a t i o n s I n Other C o u n t r i e s . A. I n the U n i t e d S t a t e s . B e f o r e b e g i n n i n g t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y i t i s e n l i g h t e n i n g t o examine r a t h e r b r i e f l y the r e s u l t s of s i m i l a r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s e l s e w h e r e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s . Since 1924 a number .of t h e s e have been c a r r i e d out--some s t a t e - w i d e , o t h e r s on a n a t i o n a l s c a l e . I n a d d i t i o n many a r t i c l e s of a g e n e r a l ' n a t u r e have been p u b l i s h e d d e c r y i n g the o v e r s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s or m i n i m i z i n g t h e p r o b l e m . The t a s k of s o r t i n g out f r om t h i s l a r g e and e v e r - i n c r e a s -i n g amount of m a t e r i a l a complete g i s t of a l l t h a t might be c l a s s e d as i m p o r t a n t i s beyond t h e scope of t h i s s t u d y . I t i s s u f f i c i e n t , a t t h i s p o i n t , t o s a y t h a t s uch has been done by two c o - w o r k e r s , R. H. E l i a s s e n and E. W. Anderson, and t h e i r r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d i n t h e E d u c a t i o n R e s e a r c h B u l l e t i n . T h e i r f i r s t r e p o r t c o n s i s t e d of a s u r v e y of the s i g n i f i c a n t s t u d i e s r e l a t i n g t o t h e s u p p l y and demand f o r t e a c h e r s which had appeared s i n c e 1924 w i t h an a n n o t a t e d b i b l i o g r a p h y . T h i s appear-ed i n t h e i s s u e of November 5, 1930. S i n c e t h e n at f a i r l y r e g u l a r i n t e r v a l s t h e y have brought t h i s r e v i e w up t o d a t e . As p o i n t e d out i n the r e p o r t of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , Bureau of E d u c a t i o n , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o make i n t e r s t a t e c omparisons. There a r e t o o many elements t h a t may v a r y as f r o m s t a t e t o s t a t e t o a l l o w f o r any common b a s i s . D i f f e r e n c e s i n w e a l t h , 1. R. H. E l l i a s s e n and E. W. Anderson, op. c i t . 13 e d u c a t i o n a l t r a d i t i o n s , methods of o r g a n i z a t i o n and a d m i n i s t r a -t i o n between s t a t e s and c o u n t r i e s are so g r e a t t h a t the r e -s u l t s of a s u r v e y i n a g i v e n s t a t e , p r o v i n c e or c o u n t r y are a p p l i c a b l e o n l y t o the r e g i o n under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . For t h a t reason i t i s not t o be assumed t h a t any c o n c l u s i o n s mentioned i n t h i s chapter,.in anyway m o d i f y those l a t e r deduced f o r B r i t i s h Columbia but s e r v e m e r e l y t o b r i n g out p o i n t s of correspondence and v a r i a n c e . A v e r y e l a b o r a t e a n a l y s i s of the problem was made on e d u c a t i o n w i t h t h e N a t i o n a l Survey of the E d u c a t i o n of Teach-e r s . The f o l l o w i n g i s a b r i e f resume of t h e more i m p o r t a n t -3 i d e a s c o n t a i n e d i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n . I t was p o i n t e d out f i r s t of a l l t h a t t h e problem of a d j u s t i n g s u p p l y and demand was not /only a problem of " p r o c u r -i n g p o s i t i o n s f o r t e a c h e r s and h e l p i n g p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s t o choose f o r or a g a i n s t , but t h e maintenance of. the p r o f e s s i o n -a l morale of m i l l i o n s of t e a c h e r s . " F u r t h e r the remedy of i n c r e a s i n g the amount of p r e - s e r v i c e e d u c a t i o n t o reduce the numbers b e i n g p r e p a r e d , even though i t was made t o a p p l y o n l y t o new t e a c h e r s and was not t o be r e t r o a c t i v e , was p r o f e s s i o n -a l l y e m b a r r a s s i n g t o p r e s e n t t e a c h e r s w i t h l e s s p r e p a r a t i o n t h a n t h a t demanded of new t e a c h e r s . 2. Summary and I n t e r p r e t a t i o n , U n i t e d S t a t e s O f f i c e of E d u c a t i o n , B u l l e t i n 1933, No. 10. V o l V I , N a t i o n a l Survey of t h e E d u c a t i o n of T e a c h e r s , Washington, Government P r i n t -i n g O f f i c e 1935, pp xiii - f c 2 5 3 3. I b i d . 4. I b i d . , p 191 The a u t h o r s t h e n gave a v e r y complete d i s c u s s i o n of t h e f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g b o t h s u p p l y and demand which i s here p r e -s e n t e d as a b r i e f o u t l i n e . "The e d u c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s a r e : (1) The number of t e a c h e r s , s u p e r v i s o r s , a d m i n i s t r a t o r s a c t u -a l l y employed d u r i n g any y e a r i n t h e s c h o o l systems of a S t a t e . These r e c o r d s s h o u l d show t h e number b y — (a) S c h o o l d i v i s i o n o r l e v e l : e.g. k i n d e r g a r t e n , s e n i o r h i g h . (b) Grades o r s u b j e c t s t a u g h t : 5 t h Grade o r Mathematics (e) S p e c i a l t y p e s of s u p e r v i s o r y and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p o s i t i o n s , (d) Men and women. (2) I n c r e a s e s and decreases i n s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n . (a) By ages and grades (b) By communities (3) E x t e n s i o n of t h e e d u c a t i o n a l system t o i n c l u d e new groups (a) K i n d e r g a r t e n , n u r s e r y and p r e s c h o o l (b) A d u l t e d u c a t i o n (4) E x p a n s i o n o f s p e c i a l e d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s (a) Teachers of s p e c i a l s u b j e c t s , e.g. a r t , p h y s i c a l e d u c a t i o n , m u s i c . (b) S u p e r v i s o r s , e.g. p r i m a r y , m u s i c , geography, h e a l t h , home economics. ( c ) V i s i t i n g t e a c h e r s and s p e c i a l case work. •'(d) S c h o o l n u r s e s , p e d i a t r i c i a n s , d e n t i s t s , p s y c h o l o -g i s t s . (5) I n c r e a s e s and dec r e a s e s i n s i z e of c l a s s e s p e r t e a c h e r . (6) I n c r e a s e s and de c r e a s e s i n t e a c h i n g l o a d , e s p e c i a l l y i n h i g h s c h o o l . (7) I n c r e a s e s and dec r e a s e s i n t h e average l e n g t h of t e a c h -i n g s e r v i c e . (8) Age of r e t i r e m e n t . (9) Whether o r not l e a v e s of absence a re a l l o w e d and t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t e a c h e r s who are e l i g i b l e and p r o p o r t i o n who t a k e advantage of t h e p r i v i l e g e , (a) Leaves of absence f o r s t u d y or t r a v e l . (b) M a t e r n i t y l e a v e s . (10) R e g u l a t i o n s g o v e r n i n g t h e employment o f m a r r i e d women and whether or not t e a c h e r s who marry may r e t a i n t h e i r p o s i t i o n s . (11) The e x t e n t t o which t e a c h e r s l e a v e a s t a t e f o r employ-ment i n a n e i g h b o r i n g s t a t e . (12) The e x t e n t t o which t e a c h e r s l e a v e t e a c h i n g t o e n t e r o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n s or p r o f e s s i o n s . (13) M o r t a l i t y . a n d i l l n e s s among t e a c h e r s of t h e s t a t e . (14) L e n g t h of s c h o o l t e r m — w h e t h e r one t e a c h e r may complete two c o n t r a c t s w i t h i n a y e a r . (15) R e g u l a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g employment of f u l l t i m e t e a c h e r s f o r e v e n i n g s c h o o l s , p l a y g r o u n d s u p e r v i s i o n and o t h e r p a r t time work. E d u c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s . (1) Standards of t h e amount and n a t u r e o f t h e p r e p a r a t i o n r e q u i r e d f o r fcaoh t y p e of p o s i t i o n . Minimum c e r t i f i c a t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r each s t a t e f o r each type o f p o s i t i o n f o r w h i c h c e r t i f i c a t e s are i s s u e d . (2) A d m i s s i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r each t y p e o f p o s i t i o n . (a) S c h o l a r s h i p r e c o r d - - i n t e l l e c t u a l a b i l i t y . (b) Age, h e a l t h , p e r s o n a l i t y , c h a r a c t e r , and I n t e r e s t i n t e a c h i n g . (c) Any s p e c i a l a b i l i t i e s , e.g. music f o r a s p e c i a l t e a c h e r o r s u p e r v i s o r of m u s i c . (3) S p e c i a l r e s t r i c t i o n s upon c e r t a i n p o s i t i o n s . (a) S e x — k i n d e r g a r t e n , n u r s i n g , c o a c h i n g . (b) A d d i t i o n a l t r a i n i n g : e.g. c a r d i a c c l a s s o r c l a s s f o r h ard of h e a r i n g . (4) Number of unemployed t e a c h e r s i n a s t a t e , m e e t i n g t h e e x i s t i n g s t a n d a r d s f o r each t y p e o f p o s i t i o n and h o l d i n g a v a l i d c e r t i f i c a t e t o t e a c h . (a) Unemployed (b) Otherwise employed but d e s i r i n g a t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n . (5) Number of unemployed t e a c h e r s i n n e i g h b o r i n g s t a t e s meet-i n g e x i s t i n g s t a n d a r d s f o r each t y p e of p o s i t i o n , whose c e r t i f i c a t e s have been o r would be approved by t h e s t a t e . (a) Unemployed (b) Otherwise employed but d e s i r i n g a t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n (6) Number of s t u d e n t s i n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s p r e p a r i n g t o be t e a c h e r s o r whose program of s u b j e c t s would q u a l i f y them f o r t e a c h i n g c e r t i f i c a t e s . (a) By t y p e s o f p o s i t i o n f o r which t h e y are q u a l i f y i n g . (b) By l e n g t h o f c u r r i c u l a r b e l n g f o l l o w e d . ( c ) By t y p e s of i n s t i t u t i o n s i n which s t u d e n t s a r e p r e p a r i n g . (7) The r e l a t i v e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f t e a c h i n g compared w i t h o t h e r f i e l d s of work open t o t h e same s t u d e n t s i n such m a t t e r s as: (a) S a l a r i e s - - r a n g e s , i n c r e m e n t s , s t a b i l i t y , and opportun-i t i e s f o r s u p p l e m e n t i n g Income. 16 (b) V a c a t i o n s (c) R e t i r e m e n t p r o v i s i o n s (d) Leaves of absence (e) Working c o n d i t i o n s such as s i z e of c l a s s e s , k i n d of s p e c i a l h e l p , n a t u r e o f s u p e r v i s i o n , o t h e r means of p r o f e s s i o n a l growth and development. ( I t would seem d o u b t f u l whether s t u d e n t s g i v e thought t o a l l t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s b e f o r e c h o o s i n g a v o c a t i o n . ) ( f ) S o c i a l and r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s and r e s t r i c -t i o n s . (8) P r o f e s s i o n a l p r e s t i g e a c c o r d e d t e a c h e r s — p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r p o s i t i o n s o f l e a d e r s h i p . (9) D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n . (a) R u r a l and urban (b) E l e m e n t a r y and secondary. (10) R e g u l a t i o n s r e g a r d i n g m a r r i a g e , e s p e c i a l l y f o r t e a c h e r s who marry w h i l e t e a c h i n g . (11) E x t e n t t o w h i c h q u a l i f i e d t e a c h e r s from o t h e r s t a t e s a r e employed. (a) Prom what s t a t e s (b) I n what t y p e s of p o s i t i o n s (12) E x t e n t t o w h i c h th o s e f rom o t h e r f i e l d s of work q u a l i f y f o r t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s . 1 (13) E x t e n t t o w h i c h form e r t e a c h e r s r e t u r n t o t e a c h i n g a f t e r p e r i o d s of employment i n o t h e r f i e l d s . (14) S e c u r i t y of tenure."S-A n a t i o n wide s u r v e y was un d e r t a k e n i n 1930-31 and c e r -t a i n o b s e r v a t i o n s were made as a r e s u l t . A "new" t e a c h e r was d e f i n e d as a t e a c h e r who was not employed i n t h e p r e s e n t s c h o o l system l a s t y e a r and " m o b i l i t y r a t i o " as t h e r a t i o o f "new" t e a c h e r s t o t h e t o t a l number of t e a c h e r s i n t h e same type of p o s i t i o n . Thus, i f t h e r e were 2,000 t e a c h e r s and 500 r e p o r t e d as new t o t h a t p o s i t i o n t h e m o b i l i t y r a t i o was s a i d t o be 1:4. T h i s d e f i n i t i o n d i d not d i s t i n g u i s h between t r a n s f e r s f r om one s c h o o l system t o a n o t h e r (from one commun-i t y t o an o t h e r ) and t h o s e who were b e g i n n e r s i n t h e sense t h a t t h e y were t e a c h i n g f o r t h e f i r s t t i m e . 5. I b i d . , pp. 195-197 17 The method of - i n v e s t i g a t i o n c o n s i s t e d of u s i n g a q u e s t i o n n a i r e which asked the p r e s e n t t e a c h e r i f he ( o r she) were new t o the p o s i t i o n , i f he ( o r she) had been t e a c h i n g b e f o r e and what had happened t o t h e p r e d e c e s s o r - - i n o t h e r words the cause of the vacancy. The m o b i l i t y r a t i o f o r t h e e n t i r e n a t i o n i n 1930-31 was as f o l l o w s : (1) E l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l t e a c h e r s 1:4.8 (2) J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s 1:6.7 (3) S e n i o r h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s 1:4.9 ^ C e r t a i n marked v a r i a t i o n s were n o t i c e d as would be e x p e c t e d . I n the open c o u n t r y o f one and two t e a c h e r - s c h o o l s t h e m o b i l -i t y r a t i o was 1:2.5 whereas i n c i t i e s of a p o p u l a t i o n of more th e n 100,000 i t was 1 : 2 0 . 2 — f o r e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s i n b o t h c a s e s . Almost as wide v a r i a t i o n s e x i s t e d as between s t a t e s . Washington D. C. f o r example was low w i t h a r a t i o of 1:16 w h i l e o t h e r s such as N o r t h Dakota were h i g h w i t h a r a t i o of 1:2.15. The causes of v a c a n c i e s i n e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s o n l y were d i s t r i b u t e d as f o l l o w s : (1) Vacancy due t o t r a n s f e r t o a n o t h e r p o s i t i o n 42.2$ (2) Because of m a r r i a g e of p r e d e c e s s o r 16.4$ (3) Death of p r e d e c e s s o r ,1% (4) R e t i r e m e n t of p r e d e c e s s o r 6.0$ 6. I b i d . , p. 201 18 (5) P r e d e c e s s o r e n t e r e d another p r o f e s s i o n o r o c c u p a t i o n 6.5$ (6) P r e d e c e s s o r l e f t on l e a v e o f absence, I l l n e s s 3.6$ (7) Not s t a t e d 24.6$ 7 Prom t h i s i t i s obvious t h a t n e a r l y h a l f t h e v a c a n c i e s , 4 2 . 2 $ d i d not r e s u l t i n the demand f o r a b e g i n n i n g t e a c h e r . Prom a c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h e average m o b i l i t y r a t i o f o r the whole n a t i o n i t appeared t h a t about l / 5 of the t e a c h e r s were new t e a c h e r s . As o n e - h a l f o f t h e s e i n d i c a t e d t h e y had not t a u g h t b e f o r e , about o n e - h a l f o f o n e - f i f t h or o n e - t e n t h of a l l the t e a c h e r s were b e g i n n e r s o r r e a l l y new t e a c h e r s . The f o l l o w i n g o u t l i n e o f t h e i r s u g g e sted p l a n f o r d e t e r -m i n i n g t h e demand i s i l l u s t r a t i v e o f t h e r e f i n e m e n t t o which t h e y c a r r i e d t h e i r a n a l y s i s and o f t h e number o f f a c t o r s w h i c h e n t e r i n t o such a p r e d i c t i o n . They suggested t h e d e s i r -a b i l i t y of b a r r i n g t e n - y e a r p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s . P l a n n i n g , t h e y s a i d , must e x t e n d over a p e r i o d of y e a r s because t e a c h e r s are t a k i n g f o u r and f i v e y e a r of p r e - s e r v i c e e d u c a t i o n a l p r e p a r a -t i o n p l u s a y e a r cadet t e a c h i n g o r unemployment. Furthermore census d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e i n p e r i o d s of t e n y e a r s . However, t h e y f e l t t h e p l a n s h o u l d be r e v i s e d , p r o b a b l y e v e r y two ye a r s i n the l i g h t o f as many d a t a as a v a i l a b l e . The f o l l o w -i n g f o r m u l a i s s u g g e s t e d as a b a s i s f o r e s t i m a t i n g the demand f o r t e a c h e r s . I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o know t h e e d u c a t i o n a l f i e l d as w e l l as t h e numbers. a^b+c-fd+e+f-fg+h-f-l+j+k -1-m-n-o+p 3 x 7. I b i d . , p . 202 19 a «. number o f t e a c h e r s who have been and w i l l be r e t i r e d d u r i n g t h e y e a r , b = number of t e a c h e r s who d i e d o r stopped t e a c h i n g because o f i l l n e s s , c>number of t e a c h e r s who stopped t e a c h i n g (not on l e a v e of absence) t o c o n t i n u e t h e i r p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g , d - number of t e a c h e r s who m a r r i e d and stopped t e a c h i n g . Qa number o f t e a c h e r s needed f o r new e d u c a t i o n s e r v i c e s i n t he el e m e n t a r y f i e l d . f - number of t e a c h e r s who r e s i g n e d o r were d i s m i s s e d f o r i n e f f i c i e n c y o r o t h e r Causes. g x I n c r e a s e o r decrease i n number o f t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s because o f an i n c r e a s e o r decrease i n t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n o r because o f an i n c r e a s e i n t h e average d a i l y a t t e n d a n c e . h •» I n c r e a s e o r decrease i n the number of t e a c h i n g p o s i -t i o n s causedby de c r e a s e s o r i n c r e a s e s i n t h e s i z e o f c l a s s e s p e r t e a c h e r o r i n t h e t e a c h i n g l o a d . i »The d i f f e r e n c e between t h e number t a k i n g l e a v e of absence ( ) and t h e number r e t u r n i n g f r o m l e a v e (-). D i f f e r e n c e between t h e number o f t e a c h e r s who l e f t t o t e a c h i n an o t h e r s t a t e ( ) and tho s e employed f r o m o t h e r s t a t e s (-). ks The d i f f e r e n c e between t h e number of t e a c h e r s who e n t e r e d a n o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n o r p r o f e s s i o n ( ) and t h e number employed from another o c c u p a t i o n o r p r o f e s s i o n (-). , * 1- Number of t e a c h e r s r e c r u i t e d t h r o u g h e x a m i n a t i o n s , cadet t e a c h i n g and o t h e r s o u r c e s . m> Number of t e a c h e r s e l i m i n a t e d because of withdraw o r c u r t a i l m e n t of s e r v i c e s . ns Number o f t e a c h e r s who r e t u r n e d t o t e a c h i n g h a v i n g some o c c u p a t i o n o t h e r t h a n t e a c h i n g i n t h e meantime. Os Number o f unemployed e l e m e n t a r y t e a c h e r s whose p r e -p a r a t i o n i s a c c e p t a b l e i n q u a l i t y , q u a n t i t y , p r o -f e s s i o n a l n a t u r e and r e c e n c y , who can be absorbed each y e a r w i t h o u t d i s r u p t i n g t h e c o n t i n u i t y of programs f o r t h e e d u c a t i o n o f t e a c h e r s . p- M a r g i n o f s a f e t y c o n s i s t i n g of enough e l e m e n t a r y t e a c h e r s i n excess o f t h e number a c t u a l l y needed, t o ca r e f o r emergencies and u n f o r e s e e n developments and a l s o t o r e p l a c e incompetents when n e c e s s a r y . x- t h e demand, t o be c a l c u l a t e d f o r each s e p a r a t e e d u c a t i o n a l f i e l d . ^ A l l t h e s e e l e m e n t s , t h e y s a i d , a re themselves v a r i a b l e s , 8. I b i d . , p. 227-228 20 most of them r a t h e r o r d e r l y v a r i a b l e s , and y e t many of them can be e s t i m a t e d f o r a s p e c i f i c y e a r o r p e r i o d w i t h a u l a t i v e l y h i g h degree o f a c c u r a c y from e d u c a t i o n a l r e c o r d s which s h o u l d be m a i n t a i n e d i n s t a t e departments of e d u c a t i o n . As a c o n c l u s i o n t h e a u t h o r s m a i n t a i n e d t h a t a shortage of t e a c h e r s lowers t h e st a n d a r d s by a l l o w i n g p o o r l y p r e p a r e d t e a c h e r s t o e n t e r t h e p r o f e s s i o n and an o v e r s u p p l y i s e q u a l l y bad by d e s t r o y i n g t h e morale o f t e a c h e r s b o t h employed and unemployed. q I n 1929-30 P r o f e s s o r H u f f a k e r ' c a r r i e d out a v e r y thorough i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o t e a c h e r s u p p l y and demand i n Oregon. Through the o f f i c e s o f t h e Department of E d u c a t i o n f o r Oregon he c i r c u l a r i z e d a l l the t e a c h e r s and t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s i n t h e s a t e and r e c e i v e d 95 p e r cent r e t u r n s t o h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e . Out of 8015 t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s he l o c a t e d 1382 as new t e a c h e r s which r e p r e s e n t e d 17.2 p e r cent of t h e t e a c h i n g body. An a d d i t i o n a l 1066 t e a c h e r s had changed p o s i t i o n s r e p r e s e n t i n g a f u r t h e r 14 p e r c e n t . He compared h i s r e s u l t s w i t h t h o s e o f Dr. B. R. Buck-ingham f r o m Ohio f o r the y e a r 1923-24 and Dr. F. L. Whitney f o r C o l o r a d o f o r t h e y e a r 1926-27, T h e i r e s t i m a t e s were 6 p e r cent and 7 p e r cent r e s p e c t i v e l y . P r o f e s s o r H u f f a k e r a l s o r e f e r r e d t o two n a t i o n a l s u r v e y s 9. C. L. H u f f a k e r , Teacher Supply and Demand i n Oregon, U n i v e r s i t y of 0regon~7 P u b l i c a t i o n , V o l . 1 1 , No. 5. Eugene: U n i v e r s i t y o f Oregon ( J a n . 1931). 21 c a r r i e d out i n 1924-25 which attempted t o f i n d , r o u g h l y , the number of replacements by s e c u r i n g e s t i m a t e s f r o m the o f f i c e s of the S t a t e S u p e r i n t e n d e n t s f o r t h e v a r i o u s s t a t e s . T h e i r r e s u l t s ranged from or h i g h of 47 p e r cent t o a low of 5 p e r c e n t . One s u r v e y ( t h e N a t i o n a l E d u c a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n ) e s t i m a t e d replacements f o r Oregon as 15 p e r c e n t . P r o f e s s o r H u f f a k e r thought t h i s e s t i m a t e t o o low. He a l s o attempted t o measure the need f o r new t e a c h e r s through a s t u d y of t e a c h e r t e n u r e . He f o u n d t h a t i n seven cases out of one hundred t e n u r e r e a c h e d a p e r i o d of 15 y e a r s . The median term of s e r v i c e f o r a l l t e a c h e r s was 2.9 y e a r s ; the h i g h e s t b e i n g 6.7 y e a r s f o r s p e c i a l t e a c h e r s and the l o w e s t 1.8 f o r one-room s c h o o l t e a c h e r s . An e x a m i n a t i o n o f the r e l a t i o n o f t h e s u p p l y of t e a c h -era t o the demand f o r t e a c h e r s i n Tennessee i n 1933-34 r e -v e a l e d t h a t t h e r e were f i v e c e r t i f i c a t e d t e a c h e r s f o r e v e r y t h r e e p o s i t i o n s i n the e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s , and f i v e t e a c h e r s f o r e v e r y two p o s i t i o n s i n t h e h i g h s c h o o l s . T h i s i n d i c a t e d a v e r y s e r i o u s s u r p l u s . The o t h e r s i d e o f the p i c t u r e was, however, t h a t i f s t a n d a r d s i n Tennessee were r a i s e d t o a d e f e n s i b l e l e v e l t h e r e a c t u a l l y would be a s h o r t a g e of t e a c h e r s . The p r o c e d u r e i n Tennessee was t o examine a l l t h e c e r t i f i c a t e s of a l l k i n d s i n f o r c e , check o f f t h o s e engaged 10. Rhey/Boyd P a r s o n s , "Study of t h e R e l a t i o n of S u p p l y of Teachers t o ' t h e Demand of T e a c h e r s . " E l e m e n t a r y S c h o o l J o u r n a l , XXXVI, (October, 1935), pp. 97-154" 22 i n t e a c h i n g and f i n d out f r o m t h e v a r i o u s s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s ( c i t y and o t h e r s ) whether t h o s e not a c t i v e were dead or no l o n g e r d e s i r o u s of t e a c h i n g . The net r e s u l t gave t h e s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s . The demand c o n s i s t e d of t h e t o t a l number of p o s i t i o n s . New J e r s e y , a p p a r e n t l y , i s t h e o n l y s t a t e which has d e l i b e r a t e l y s e t out t o b a l a n c e s u p p l y and demand. There have been q u i t e a number of n a t i o n a l and s t a t e - w i d e i n v e s t i g a t i o n s but no p r a c t i c a l or c o n c r e t e a c t i o n has f o l l o w e d as a con-sequence. New J e r s e y , however, began i n 1927 t o c u r t a i l enrolment i n t h e Normal S c h o o l s and Teachers C o l l e g e s , which i n i t s e l f i s not an u n u s u a l p r o c e d u r e . The i m p o r t a n t f a c t , however, i s t h a t c o u p l e d w i t h t h i s t h e s t a t e a l s o began a c o n t i n u i n g s u r v e y of t e a c h e r t u r n o v e r . Y e a r by y e a r s i n c e 1927 the f o l l o w i n g d a t a have been c o l l e c t e d : (1) An a c c u r a t e r e c o r d of a l l graduates f r o m s t a t e c o n t r o l l e d t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s i n New J e r s e y , by y e a r , majors and t y p e s o f c e r t i f i c a t e s . (2) An a c c u r a t e r e c o r d of a l l graduates of p r i v a t e l y c o n t r o l l e d c o l l e g e s i n New J e r s e y , l e g a l l y q u a l i f i e d t o t e a c h i n New J e r s e y . (3) An a c c u r a t e r e c o r d o f i n - s t a t e and o u t - o f - s t a t e placements f o r t h e s e two c l a s s e s of i n s t i t u t i o n s . (4) An a c c u r a t e r e c o r d o f t e a c h i n g c e r t i f i c a t e s o f a l l 11. M. E r n e s t Tousend, Te a c h e r s : "Supply and Demand--Todays S i t u a t i o n and the Problem o f P r o d u c t i o n , " O c c u p a t i o n s , XIV, (October 1 935), pp. 21-25. 23 k i n d s g r a n t e d t o graduates o f i n s t i t u t i o n s o u t s i d e New J e r s e y . ( I n New J e r s e y c e r t i f i c a t e s o t h e r t h a n t o graduates of New J e r s e y S t a t e , normal and t e a c h e r s c o l l e g e s are g r a n t e d o n l y when the p e r s o n q u a l i f i e d a c t u a l l y has a c o n t r a c t f o r a t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n i n t h e s t a t e . ) Thus by knowing the number and t y p e s of new t e a c h e r s p l a c e d each y e a r and t h e number p r e p a r e d , at l e a s t w i t h i n t h e s t a t e b o u n d a r i e s , i t i s p o s s i b l e f o r t h e Department of E d u c a t i o n under whose a u t h o r i t y t h i s work i s c a r r i e d out t o determine whether t h e s u p p l y i s b e i n g m a i n t a i n e d or i s i n e x c e s s . The c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t t h e r e are a number of v a r i a b l e s , however, which such p r e d i c t i v e p r o c e d u r e s do not and cannot p r o v i d e f o r i n any s h o r t p e r i o d of t i m e . Some of t h e s e a r e a p p a r e n t l y i m p o s s i b l e of s u c c e s s f u l p r e d i c t i o n w h i l e o t h e r s are c a p a b l e of c o n t r o l . Some of t h e s e v a r i a b l e a r e : (1) Economis c o n d i t i o n s : The d e p r e s s i o n r e s u l t e d i n a d i m i n u t i o n o f funds which meant a c u r t a i l m e n t of t h e program. V a c a n c i e s were l e f t u n f i l l e d by i n c r e a s i n g the s i z e of t h e c l a s s e s . Normal development i n newer areas slowed down o r were abandoned. R e t i r e m e n t s were d e l a y e d . C e r t i f i c a t e d t e a c h e r s who had l e f t f o r b e t t e r t h i n g s r e t u r n e d t o i n c r e a s e the s u p p l y . R a p i d economic e x p a n s i o n l e a d s t o an e x t r a o r d i n a r y de-mand f o r t e a c h e r s f o r t h e c o n v e r s e r e a s o n s . (2) What comprises an optimum s c h o o l program? e.g. New 24 J e r s e y with- a p o p u l a t i o n o f 4,042,000 "needs" 28,000 t e a c h e r s , a n e i g h b o r i n g s t a t e w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f 1,632,000 needs,3,300 t e a c h e r s . Thus the needs depend upon t h e v a l u e t h e s t a t e a t t a c h e s t o e d u c a t i o n . (3) The time t h a t e l a p s e s between th e p r e d i c t i o n of need and the p r o v i s i o n o f r e c r u i t s t o s a t i s f y t h a t need. I f i t r e q u i r e s one or two y e a r s o f p r e p a r a t i o n t h e n t h e e s t i m a t e need o n l y be c o r r e c t e d f o r one or two y e a r s . The l o n g e r the p e r i o d o f p r e p a r a t i o n the l e s s s i g n i f i c a n t does t h e p r e d i c t i o n become. (4) The e x t e n t o f t h e f i e l d — t h e I n t r o d u c t i o n o f a p r e -k i n d e r g a r t e n or e x t e n s i o n o f t h e k i n d e r g a r t e n f i e l d makes i t i m p e r a t i v e t h a t one s h o u l d know the number of t e a c h e r s p r e p a r -ed f o r t h e new work and the number t h a t w i l l be r e q u i r e d . I n c l o s i n g Towsend made t h e f o l l o w i n g recommendations: (1) T e a c h i n g s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d a p r i v i l e g e and not a r i g h t and t h e r e f o r e t h e s t a t e s h o u l d e n f o r c e s e l e c t i v e a d m i s s i o n . (2) I n a f o u r - y e a r t e a c h e r ' s e o l l e g e course admit 10 p e r cent more freshmen i n each major s u b j e c t t h a n were p l a c e d d u r i n g t h e p r e v i o u s twelve-month p e r i o d . T h i s p r o v i d e s f o r emergencies, d i s m i s s a l s , w i t h d r a w a l s , and u n d e r e s t i m a t i o n of t h e market f o u r y e a r s hence. (3) D i s c o n t i n u e t h e p o l i c y of permanent c e r t i f i c a t i o n because t e a c h e r s t e n d t o become o b s o l e t e i n t h e i r methods and i d e a s u n l e s s c o m p e l l e d t o keep up t o date and f u r t h e r m o r e the number who come back d u r i n g a d e p r e s s i o n r e t u r n t o p l a g u e 26 your p r e d i c t i o n s . (4) And l a s t l y one must c o n s t a n t l y canvass e d u c a t i o n a l t r e n d and p o s s i b l e new developments and a n t i c i p a t e new areas of demand by a g r a d u a l e x p a n s i o n of new s e r v i c e t r a i n i n g f a c i l i t i e s . C a l i f o r n i a has a l a r g e s u r p l u s of t r a i n e d p r i n c i p a l s a c c o r d i n g t o a r e p o r t by Anderson and Rhode. S l i g h t l y more th a n 2,000 h o l d v a l i d s e condary s c h o o l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c r e d e n t i a l s . As t h e r e are l e s s t h a n 400 h i g h s c h o o l p r i n c i p a l -s h i p s i n t h e s t a t e t h i s means t h a t t h e r e a r e f o u r h i g h l y t r a i n e d p r i n c i p a l s o t h e r w i s e o c c u p i e d f o r each one employed. D u r i n g t h e l a s t t e n y e a r s s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n an average of e i g h t new h i g h s c h o o l s opened each y e a r w h i l e each year saw one c l o s e d . The demand c o n s i s t s t h e r e f o r e of seven new h i g h s c h o o l p r i n c i p a l s p l u s an average of f o r t y - t w o who have t h e p r o f e s s i o n y e a r l y . I n a s i n g l e y e a r one u n i v e r s i t y a l o n e p r e -p a r e d 65 f o r c e r t i f i c a t i o n . Whether a n y t h i n g s u b s e q u e n t l y has been- done t o r e c t i f y t h i s s i t u a t i o n t h e s t u d y i l l u s t r a t e s v e r y f o r c i b l y t h e waste-f u l n e s s of u n r e s t r i c t e d c o m p e t i t i o n . I f no f u r t h e r c e r t i f i c a t e s were i s s u e d i t would t a k e 30 y e a r s t o u t i l i z e t h e s i x t e e n hundred q u a l i f i e d p r i n c i p a l s a t t h e apparent r a t e of f i f t y p e r annum. S e r i o u s consequences c o u l d h a r d l y r e s u l t f r o m t h i s p a r t i c u l a r f o r m of o v e r - p r o d u c t i o n . 12. Dewey Anderson and E l l i s G. Rhode, "Troublesome S i t u a t i o n i n C a l i f o r n i a . " N a t i o n ' s Schools , X V I I , ( F e b r u a r y , 1936), pp. 34-35 26 Grant and Cowly have d e v i s e d a t e c h n i q u e f o r a n a l y z i n g the s u p p l y and demand f o r e d u c a t i o n a l w o r k e r s . I t s purpose i s t o show the r e l a t i o n s h i p between s u p p l y and demand f o r each type o f t e a c h e r i n t u r n s of some c o n v e n i e n t i n d e x . To t h a t e x t e n t I t has some m e r i t but the f a r more s e r i o u s problem of how can one determine t h e s u p p l y o r the demand i s b l i t h e l y i g n o r e d . The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e i l l u s t r a t e s i t s o p e r a t i o n : Type of S u p p l y P e r cent Demand P e r cent S u p p l y and Work of T o t a l o f T o t a l Demand R a t i o i n P e r cent Mathe- ,165„_,nn ,v m a t i c s 165 10.V% 302 13.9<£ 54.6# Ky&3T^K) ' t e a c h e r s P r i m a r y 79 S p e c i a l i s t 79 4.9$ 44 2.0# 179.5# l ^ x l O O ) W i t h an extended t a b l e one c o u l d see at a g l a n c e when the s u p p l y was f a l l i n g b e h i n d and where i t was i n e x c e s s . One cannot bu t be i m p r e s s e d by t h e f a c t t h a t d u r i n g t h e worst y e a r s of t h e d e p r e s s i o n most a r t i c l e s of a g e n e r a l n a t u r e p e r t a i n i n g t o s u p p l y and demand d e p l o r e d t h e e x i s t e n c e of l a r g e numbers of unemployed t e a c h e r s . I n 1935 and 1936 however, more o p t i m i s t i c notes were sounded. V a r i o u s r e p o r t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t a h i g h e r p e r c e n t a g e of e d u c a t i o n graduates were IH-13. A. Grant and W. H. Cowley, "Technique f o r A n a l y z i n g the S u p p l y and Demand f o r E d u c a t i o n a l Workers." S c h o o l and S o c i e t y , XXIX, (May 11, 1929, pp. 618-620. 14. ' J . E. U m s t a t t e l , "Improved O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r Teachers--E d u c a t i o n Graduates". E d u c a t i o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and S u p e r i n -tendence X X I I , (November, 1936), pp. 6X9^621-27 b e i n g p l a c e d i n 1934-35 t h a n i n 1933-34 and t h a t s a l a r i e s were i m p r o v i n g . Of i n t e r e s t t o a l l t e a c h e r s i s a r e p o r t of the d e c l i n e i n IS • s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s r e p o r t e d u c a t i o n i s a $3,000,000,000 a y e a r i n d u s t r y i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s and employs t h e t i m e of one q u a r t e r of the American p e o p l e . There now appears a r e d u c t i o n i n t h e number of c h i l d r e a . The c i t y o f Chicago has fewer c h i l d r e n now i n the f i r s t grade t h a n t h e r e were i n 1900 a l t h o u g h the c i t y has doubled i n s i z e . Throughout t h e whole c o u n t r y t h e r e w i l l be 1,000,000 f e w e r c h i l d r e n of e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l age i n 1940 t h a n i n 1930. More s t u d e n t s were g r a d u a t e d from the elementary s c h o o l i n 1935 t h a n e v e r b e f o r e or e v e r a g a i n . These changes i n t h e t r e n d of s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n w i l l not o c c u r at the same time i n a l l s e c t i o n s . They w i l l come f i r s t i n areas of l o w e s t b i r t h - r a t e , g e n e r a l l y sooner i n c i t y r e g i o n s t h a n i n r u r a l areas and e a r l i e r i n the west and n o r t h t h a n i n the s o u t h . Prom an o c c u p a t i o n a l s t a n d p o i n t i t i s becoming r e l a t i v e l y more d i f f i c u l t f o r women t h a n f o r men t o s e c u r e p o s i t i o n s . Men are g e n e r a l l y r e p l a c i n g women. There i s now an o v e r s u p p l y o f t e a c h e r s t r a i n e d i n the s t a n d a r d s u b j e c t s whereas i n a few of the new f i e l d s such as v o c a t i o n a l t r a i n i n g , a g r i c u l t u r e , and r e m e d i a l r e a d i n g , o p p o r t u n i t i e s are e x c e l l e n t . How a c c u r a t e t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s may be one can o n l y guess. 15. " O c c u p a t i o n a l O u t l o o k f o r E l e m e n t a r y S c h o o l Teachers'.' E l e m e n t a r y S c h o o l J o u r n a l , XXXIX, (December, 1938) p.250 28 At l e a s t the -census of 1940 w i l l e s t a b l i s h f o r t h e time b e i n g the t r u t h o r o t h e r w i s e of the statement t h a t the elementary s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n i s d e f i n i t e l y on t h e down t r e n d . I n B r i t i s h Columbia i t has remained r e l a t i v e l y c o n s t a n t f o r the l a s t n i n e years though c e r t a i n communities have s u f f e r e d a d e c l i n e . F i n a l l y b e f o r e t h i s b r i e f summary of some of the American i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i s brought t o a c l o s e i t might be w o r t h w h i l e f o r t h e sake of comparison t o c o n s i d e r l a b o r t u r n o v e r i n o t h e r f i e l d s of employment. U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e i d e a o f t u r n o v e r i n v o l v e s b o t h t h e i d e a o f replacements and exchanges. I n the more s t a b l e i n d u s t r i e s however, t u r n o v e r must approximate replacements s i n c e exchanges c o u l d be reduced t o a minimum. The f o r m u l a recommended by t h e U. S. Department of Labor and the N a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n of Employment Managers i s t h i s : " t o compute the p e r c e n t a g e o f l a b o r t u r n o v e r f o r any p e r i o d , f i n d the t o t a l s e p a r a t i o n s ( a l l q u i t s , d i s c h a r g e s and l a y o f f s f o r any r e a s o n whatsoever) f o r t h e p e r i o d c o n s i d e r e d and d i v i d e by the average of t h e number a c t u a l l y w o r k i n g each day throughout the p e r i o d . Then m u l t i p l y t h e p r o p e r f a c t o r t o reduce t o a y e a r l y b a s i s . " The U n i v e r s i t y of Chicago i n a s t u d y of t u r n o v e r r a t e s i n 16. P a u l H. Douglas, "Labor T u r n o v e r . " E n c y c l o p a e d i a o f S o c i a l S o u r c e s , M a c m l l l a n , V I I I , (1932) pp. 709-713 29 v a r i o u s o c c u p a t i o n s i n a l a r g e m i d d l e w e s t e r n r a i l r o a d i n 1920 d i s c o v e r e d a v a r i a t i o n o f between 19$ f o r t e l e g r a p h e r s and n e a r l y 1700$ f o r f r e i g h t s t a t i o n l a b o r e r s .'^  i n 1913-14 t h e Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s i n v e s t i g a t e d the t u r n o v e r i n v a r i o u s p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s . The r e s u l t s were 15 p e r cent f o r gas and e l e c t r i c companies, 27 p e r cent f o r s t r e e t r a i l w a y s and 39 p e r cent f o r t e l e p h o n e s e r v i c e . These r a t e s i n c r e a s e d d u r i n g t h e war. I n t h e government s e r v i c e the t u r n o v e r i s p a r t i c u l a r l y low. I n 1917-19 when s a l a r i e s were l a g g i n g b e h i n d t h e c o s t of l i v i n g , the t u r n o v e r d i d not exceed 40 p e r c e n t . Recent I n -v e s t i g a t i o n s by B r i s s e n d e n f o r t h e e n t i r e F e d e r a l s e r v i c e i n 1927-28 showed an average a n n u a l t u r n o v e r of 19 p e r cent w h i l e i n the d e p a r t m e n t a l s e r v i c e at Washington D. C. the average was o n l y 8 p e r c e n t . I n g e n e r a l i n d u s t r i e s and o c c u p a t i o n s where t h e p r i n c i p l e of s e n i o r i t y i s commonly f o l l o w e d f o r b o t h promotions and l a y o f f s t e n d t o have a t u r n o v e r r a t e d e c i d e d l y below average. T h i s I s a l s o measurably t r u e among o r g a n i z e d workers where u n i o n r u l e s s u c h as t h e p r i o r i t y system and l i m i t a t i o n o f employers r i g h t s t o d i s c h a r g e t e n d t o reduce c o n s i d e r a b l e l a b o r t u r n o v e r . ^° B. I n Canada. 17. I b i d . 18. I b i d . 19. I b i d . 20. I b i d . 30 The Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s p u b l i s h e d i n 1937 a b r o c h u r e on s u p p l y and demand i n t h e p r o f e s s i o n s i n Canada. In t h i s appears a d i s c u s s i o n on the o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n s c h o o l t e a c h i n g f rom t h e v i e w p o i n t o f Canada as a whole. The f o l l o w -i n g i s a statement of t h e f i n d i n g s which because of i t s b r e v i t y and the f a c t t h a t t h e r e are a p p a r e n t l y no o t h e r such s t u d i e s i n Canada i s b e i n g p r e s e n t e d i n i t s e n t i r e t y except f o r t h e s e c t i o n on s a l a r i e s . "One of t h e g r e a t e s t growths i n u n i v e r s i t y work s i n c e 1920 has been i n t h e f i e l d o f t e a c h e r - t r a i n i n g . I t i s not new t e a c h i n g so much as a t r a n s f e r of work f r o m normal s c h o o l t o u n i v e r s i t y . A P a l c u l t y of E d u c a t i o n has been e s t a b l i s h e d i n each of the w e s t e r n p r o v i n c i a l u n i v e r s i t i e s s i n c e 1920, w h i l e i n Quebec and t h e M a r i t i m e s the. u n i v e r s i t y work i n e d u c a t i o n has been extended, w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t a y e a r of p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g i n a u n i v e r s i t y i s now t h e r u l e f o r h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s throughout Canada. About 600 t o 800 p e r year t a k e t h e c o u r s e , and a good d e a l of f u r t h e r work i s done i n t h e F a c u l t i e s o r C o l l e g e s o f E d u c a t i o n , as i s i n d i c a t e d by 100 b a c h e l o r ' s degrees i n Pedogogy o r E d u c a t i o n l a s t year." "The t r e n d t o t e a c h e r - t r a i n i n g i n t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s has been even more pronounced t h a n i t appears f r o m a bare r e c o r d of persons r e c e i v i n g c e r t i f i c a t e s f o r the u n i v e r s i t y c o u r s e s , because w h i l e t h i s has i n c r e a s e d t h e r e has been a d e c l i n e i n the t o t a l number of new c e r t i f i c a t e s i s s u e d . The summary hereunder i s a r r a n g e d t o slow the change i n t h i s r e s p e c t . C e r t i f i c a t e s f o r u n i v e r s i t y c o u r s e s have, i n f a c t , become so numerous t h a t i n most of t h e p r o v i n c e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e number of t h e h o l d e r s have been u n a b l e t o f i n d t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s i n t h e h i g h s c h o o l s and have t a k e n p l a c e s i n t h e elementary s c h o o l s . " 21. S u p p l y and Demand i n the P r o f e s s i o n i n Canada, o p . c l t . 31 Year New t e a c h e r s t r a i n e d i n normal s c h o o l s Hew t e a c h e r s t r a i n e d i n u n i v e r s i t y -T o t a l new t e a c h e r s t r a i n e d . 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 7,766 8,104 7,506 6,867 7,742 5,738 6,141 6,920 6,405 6,613 5,475 5,315 346 344 373 450 438 501 523 581 744 807 810 649 8,112 8,448 7,879 7,317 8,180 6,239 6,664 7,501 7,149 7,420 6,285 5,964 " I n s p i t e of t h e decrease i n the numbers of t e a c h e r s t r a i n e d t h e r e has been a s u r p l u s of c e r t i f i c a t e d t e a c h e r s a c c u m u l a t i n g f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s , and i t seems d o u b t f u l whether the reduced numbers a r e - y e t low enough t o cease c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the s u r p l u s . I n t h r e e p r o v i n c e s where the r e d u c t i o n i n numbers t r a i n i n g has been g r e a t e s t t h e r e were 1,492 t e a c h e r s c e r t i f i c a t e d i n June, 1935, and o n l y 1,313 new t e a c h e r s p l a c e d i n the e n s u i n g s c h o o l y e a r , " "The s i t u a t i o n has p r o b a b l y been c r e a t e d I n t h e main by the s c a r c i t y of o t h e r openings f o r employment i n t h e d e p r e s s i o n y e a r s . Fewer g i r l s have l e f t t e a c h i n g f o r o t h e r p o s i t i o n s , o r t o be m a r r i e d , and forme r t e a c h e r s have come back t o the p r o f e s s i o n a f t e r s p e n d i n g some time at o t h e r work. T h i s i s r e f l e c t e d i n the male and femal e p r o p o r t i o n s of t e a c h e r s ; i n the l a s t f o u r y e a r s men t e a c h e r s have i n c r e a s e d about 3,500 w h i l e t h e number of women t e a c h e r s has been reduced by 800." "There i s another f a c t o r on t h e s i d e of demand. The c h i l d p o p u l a t i o n of t h e c o u n t r y has f o r some y e a r s ceased t o i n c r e a s e . There are fewer c h i l d r e n under t h e age of t e n t h a n i n the next o l d e r t e n y e a r group, 10-19. I t i s o n l y l e n g t h -ened s c h o o l i n g , and a tendency i n some p l a c e s t o s m a l l e r c l a s s e s , t h a t has caused t h e number of t e a c h e r s t o c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e . I n t h e v i s i b l e f u t u r e t h e r e are l i k e l y t o be few more t h a n enough n e w l y - t r a i n e d t e a c h e r s f o r replacement of t h o s e r e s i g n i n g from t h e p r o f e s s i o n a r e l i k e l y t o be r e q u i r e d . " I n c o n c l u d i n g t h i s s e c t i o n , i t I s o f i n t e r e s t t o compare the median y e a r s of e x p e r i e n c e as a t t h e end o f t h e s c h o o l y e a r , midsummer 1936 f o r f i v e of t h e p r o v i n c e s . No d a t a i s g i v e n f o r Nova S c o t i a , Quebec, O n t a r i o o r A l b e r t a . Manitoba appears t o rank h i g h e s t i n p o i n t of y e a r s of s e r v i c e of her t e a c h e r s a l t h o u g h t h e r e i s a remarkable u n i f o r m i t y t h r o u g h o u t . Each p r o v i n c e e x p e r i e n c e s t h e same d i f f e r e n c e s between s c h o o l s i n d i f f e r e n t types of communities. The f o l l o w i n g t a b l e p r e -pa r e d by the Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s g i v e s t h e median ye a r s of e x p e r i e n c e of a l l t e a c h e r s w i t h i n the r e s p e c t i v e p r o v i n c i a l b o r d e r s by sex and type of community. Town or v i l l a g e s s c h o o l s c o r r e s p o n d t o s c h o o l s i n d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l -i t i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia. P r i n c e New Manl- S a s k a t ? B r i t i s h Edward Bruns- t o b a chewan Columbia I s l a n d w i c k Sex IT T M p T M P T M P T M \ F T C i t y Schools >f-c> /3-C /y..o /J* Town and V i l l a g e Co r-o /o-O ? ' * ~//-t /o-c a K u r a l s c h o o l s (2 or more 5~>C C-o r-o ?.6 ~ r-o C-o r° 7'° -t t / i 1.HIM J 1 R u r a l Schools (1 room) •¥-•0 4-0 f.d M« males Fafemale T = t o t a l 0. I n v e s t i g a t i o n s E l s e w h e r e . A f a i r l y t h o r o u g h s e a r c h f a i l e d t o r e v e a l even so much as a h i n t t h a t such i n v e s t i g a t i o n s have been c a r r i e d on i n 22. " S a l a r i e s and Q u a l i f i c a t i o n s of Canadian Teachers, pp.2-3, Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , " 1937. 53 B r i t a i n , t h e . o t h e r Dominions or i n f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . Two s m a l l r e f e r e n c e s , however, appeared i n the Time E d u c a t i o n a l Supplement. In 1930 t h e r e seemed t o be a l a c k of c e r t i f i c a t e d t e a c h e r s i n England and Wales. I n 1936, though, co n c e r n was e x p r e s s e d a t the number of unemployed t e a c h e r s i n England and the o p i n i o n g i v e n t h a t t h e r e s h o u l d be c l o s e r c o n t r o l o f s u p p l y and demand. The reasons f o r t h i s apparent l a c k of c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the problem of s u p p l y and demand are p r o b a b l y t w o - f o l d . F i r s t , t h e r e i s t h e n a t i o n a l tendency t o eschew a l l forms of p u b l i c p r o b i n g s a f t e r t h e manner of the A m e r icans, and, second, t h e f a c t t h a t t h e i r e d u c a t i o n a l systems b e i n g much more c l o s e l y k n i t and c e n t r a l i z e d have not been s u b j e c t t o such excesses and means of c o n t r o l have been much more e a s i l y a p p l i e d w i t h o u t r e c o u r s e t o e x t e n s i v e p r i o r e x a m i n a t i o n s . In c o n c l u d i n g t h i s c h a p t e r c e r t a i n comments seem i n o r d e r . F i r s t , one i s s t r u c k by t h e m u l t i p l i c i t y of such i n v e s t i g a t i o n s t h a t have been un d e r t a k e n i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s i n the l a s t 15 o r 16 y e a r s . Second, one i s d i smayed by the wide range of r e s u l t s s e c u r e d by t h e s e d i f f e r e n t i n v e s t i g a t o r s . T h i s i s p r o b a b l y due t o a t l e a s t t h r e e f a c t o r s — ( 1 ) d i f f e r e n c e s i n g e o g r a p h i c a l r e g i o n s under e x a m i n a t i o n (2) d i f f e r e n c e s i n economic c o n d i t i o n s - - s o m e i n good y e a r s , o t h e r i n bad and (3) 23. "Lack of Teachers i n England and Wales ( C e r t i f i c a t e d ) Times E d u c a t i o n a l Supplement, 783 (May 3, 1930) p.199 24. "Unemployed Teachers i n E n g l a n d . " Times E d u c a t i o n a l Supplement, 1087, (Feb. 29,1936) p.77 34 d i f f e r e n c e s * i n techinque--some remar k a b l y r e f i n e d and a c c u r a t e ; o t h e r s l i t t l e b e t t e r t h a n guesses* T h i r d , t h e r e a re the extremes o f p r e d i c t i v e t e c h n i q u e , from t h e e l a b o r a t e f o r m u l a t o the s i m p l e and s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d i n us© i n New J e r s e y . I t would seem t h a t B r i t i s h Columbia c o u l d w e l l employ some scheme somewhat between t h e s e two I n c o m p l e x i t y . F o u r t h , the e x t r e m e l y low medians f o r ye a r s o f e x p e r i e n c e i n Oregon are v e r y s u r p r i s i n g . Whether B r i t i s h Columbia's were as low i n 1930 would be i n t e r e s t i n g t o know; i t seems r a t h e r d o u b t f u l . F i f t h , t h e f a c t t h a t o n l y one state-New J e r s e y - has mad© any c o n c r e t e attempt t o a p p l y the r e s u l t s of the i n v e s t i g a t o r s , a f t e r a l l t h e s e y e a r s , i s v e r y s t r a n g e . And, s i x t h , t h e r a t e of t u r n o v e r i n Ohio, C o l o r a d o and i n the d e p a r t m e n t a l o f f i c e s at Washington, D. C., c o r r e s p o n d almost e x a c t l y w i t h the r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y f o r B r i t i s h Columbia, ( a p p r o x i m a t e l y l\ p e r c e n t . ) CHAPTER TIT F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g the Demand f o r T e a c h e r s — A Q u a l i t a t i v e A n a l y s i s . A. T o t a l S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n as i t i s A f f e c t e d by V a r i o u s F a c t o r s The demand f o r t e a c h e r s w h i l e a p p a r e n t l y b e i n g a s i m p l e measurable phenomenon i s i n a c t u a l i t y a d e c i d e d l y f l u c t u a t i n g q u a n t i t y which i s i n t u r n the composite of a number of e l e m e n t a l v a r i a b l e s . F o r t u n a t e l y t h e p r o g r e s s i v e changes i n 1 many of the s e v a r i a b l e s o c c u r w i t h some degree of r e g u l a r i t y . T h i s p e r m i t s one t o f o r e c a s t t h e f u t u r e demands w i t h some degree of r e l i a b i l i t y . The e s t i m a t i o n of demand one, two, t h r e e or f o u r y e a r s hence becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y more depend-a b l e the fewer t h e f a c t o r s t h a t remain u n p r e d i c t a b l e . I t must n e v e r t h e l e s s be remembered t h a t however r e f i n e d one's a n a l y s i s may be p r e d i c t i o n i s s t i l l an e s t i m a t e . A b s o l u t e a c c u r a c y can never be e x p e c t e d but an a p p r a i s a l of the f u t u r e based on a c a r e f u l s t u d y o f a l l t h e f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d and a l t e r e d from t i m e t o t i m e as cha n g i n g c o n d i t i o n s r e q u i r e w i l l c e r t a i n l y p r e v e n t t h e o c c u r r e n c e of a l a r g e s u r p l u s or s h o r t -age of t e a c h e r s such as has a r i s e n on v a r i o u s o c c a s i o n s i n the p a s t , when t h e b a l a n c e has been l e f t t o work I t s e l f out unguided. One o f the prime f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the demand f o r t e a c h e r s i s the number o f c h i l d r e n a t t e n d i n g s c h o o l . Obvious-l y t h e r e i s a v e r y c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between the number of p u p i l s and t h e number o f t e a c h e r s . However t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s n o t a b s o l u t e . C e r t a i n w e a l t h y communities f e e l t h a t t o t e a c h a d e q u a t e l y t h e i r c h i l d r e n a g i v e n number of t e a c h e r s i s r e q u i r e d . Another community of t h e same s i z e might be s a t i s f i e d w i t h h a l f t h a t number of t e a c h e r s . I n t h e course of t i m e , however, th e s t a n d a r d o f e d u c a t i o n which i s a c c e p t -a b l e t o each s e c t i o n of the c o u n t r y tends t o become f i x e d ? or I n o t h e r words the number of p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r , w h i l e v a r y -i n g from one a r e a o r community t o a n o t h e r , becomes r a t h e r d e f i n i t e l y s t a b i l i z e d i n any g i v e n community. Thus, I n s t u d y i n g t h e d a t a f o r t h e P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia, w h i l e t h e p a s t has w i t n e s s e d a d e c i d e d i n c r e a s e i n t h e r a t i o of t e a c h e r s t o p u p i l s , t h e l a s t few y e a r s have seen but l i t t l e change, and i n d i c a t i o n t h a t a more or l e s s a c c e p t e d s t a n d a r d has been a c h i e v e d . The f a c t t h a t e d u c a t i o n a l a u t h o r i t y i s r a t h e r s t r o n g l y c e n t r a l i z e d has tended t o produce c o n s i d e r a b l e u n i f o r m i t y throughout B r i t i s h Columbia, a c o n d i t i o n which would p r o b a b l y not o t h e r w i s e e x i s t . F o r t h e s e reasons i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c o n c e n t r a t e our a t t e n t i o n more f u l l y upon the t o t a l s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n knowing t h a t f o r t h i s p r o v i n c e a t l e a s e t h e p u p i l - t e a c h e r r a t i o i s r e m a r k a b l y c o n s t a n t . H a v i n g assumed a c e r t a i n t e a c h e r - p u p i l r a t i o , we must now c o n s i d e r how v a r i o u s f a c t o r s a f f e c t t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n . One of the f i r s t of t h e s e i n importance i s t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . From an e x a m i n a t i o n of the t r e n d s of p o p u l a t i o n changes v a l u a b l e d e d u c t i o n s can be drawn as t o t h e p r o b a b l e course o f the s c h o o l enrolment. Most new c o u n t r i e s go t h r o u g h a c y c l e of development i n which a t f i r s t t h e r e i s a v e r y s m a l l r a t i o of c h i l d r e n t o 37 a d u l t s , a n d l a t e r a p e r i o d when the p r o p o r t i o n of c h i l d r e n i s g r e a t e r than normal. These r e p r e s e n t the era s of early-e x p l o r a t i o n and of r a p i d e x p a n s i o n . L a t e r comes the p e r i o d when f u r t h e r growth seems slow and d i f f i c u l t and t h e need f o r new hands d i m i n i s h e s . T h i s s t a g e i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a f a l l -i n g o f f I n t h e r a t i o of c h i l d r e n t o p o p u l a t i o n . I t i s n e c e s s a r y , t h e , when u t i l i z i n g t h e changes I n p o p u l a t i o n t o determine s c h o o l attendance t o c o n s i d e r not o n l y the amount of t h e change but a l s o t h e stage o f development. The t r e n d s o f p o p u l a t i o n , b e i n g l e s s s u s c e p t i b l e t o minor d i s t u r b a n c e s and b e i n g more c o n s t a n t i n d i r e c t i o n , s e r v e t o dampen t h e f l u c t u a t i o n s f o u n d i n o t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l measures of human change and p e r m i t a more extended p r o j e c t i o n i n t o t h e f u t u r e and thus become a v e r y v a l u a b l e a d j u n c t t o any method of e s t i m a t i n g t h e f u t u r e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n . I n a mature and s t a b l e s o c i e t y a v e r y u s e f u l index of f u t u r e demands i s t h e b i r t h r a t e o r the number o f b i r t h s . The b i r t h r a t e has g r e a t e r s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r the more remote f u t u r e , t h e number of b i r t h s f o r t h e a c t u a l demand. F o r example, i f i n 1938 t h e r e were 12,000 b i r t h s , t h e n b a r r i n g deaths and i n t e r p r o v l n c i a l s h i f t s i n p o p u l a t i o n we know how many p u p i l s w i l l e n t e r the s c h o o l system I n 1944. As a t p r e s e n t a r r a n g e d t h e r e a re t w e l v e grades p l u s s e n i o r m a t r i c u l a t i o n . S u c c e s s i v e years see t h e c h i l d r e n l e s s t h o s e who a r e r e t a r d e d or drop out move up one grade. S i n c e t h e r a t e of r e t a r d a t i o n s and l o s s e s a l o n g the way are r e a s o n a b l y u n i f o r m f r o m y e a r t o y e a r i t i s p o s s i b l e t o f i n d t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n w i t h a rema r k a b l e 38 degree of a c c u r a c y f o r f i v e o r s i x years i n advance. The procedure would be somewhat as f o l l o w s : (a) To e s t i m a t e the enrolment f o r 1941 c o n s i d e r t h e enrolment f o r 1940; (b) To f i n d the attendance f o r Grade I add t o t h e number of b i r t h s o f 6 y e a r s p r e v i o u s (1935) th e c a l c u l a t e d number of r e t a r d a t i o n s , and s u b t r a c t the number of d e a t h s . (c) To f i n d the numbers i n Grade I I t a k e the Grade I enrolment f o r 1940, s u b t r a c t the r e t a r d a t i o n s and l o s s e s from i t and add t o i t the f a i l u r e s from the Grade I I of 1940; (d) And so f o r each grade. Having done t h i s i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e x t e n d t h e r e s u l t s t o 1942 and so on t i l l 1945 by a r e p e t i t i o n of t h e same method. As each new y e a r r o l l s around the e s t i m a t e s s h a l l be r e v i s e d throughout i n t h e l i g h t of t h e l a t e s t i n f o r m a t i o n , and extend-ed f o r a n o t h e r y e a r . Some w r i t e r s have s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e demand s h a l l be known f o r t e n y e a r s ahead t o p e r m i t e f f e c t i v e t r a i n i n g of p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s . Whether r e l i a b l e r e s u l t s can be s e c u r e d f o r such a l o n g p e r i o d i s open t o q u e s t i o n but i t would seem t h a t s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s can be o b t a i n e d f o r a p e r i o d of 5 o r 6 y e a r s . I m m i g r a t i o n and e m i g r a t i o n are v a r i a b l e s w h i c h are d i f f i c u l t b o t h t o measure and t o reduce t o any degree of r e g u l a r change. I n t e r p r o v i n c i a l s h i f t s of p o p u l a t i o n can occur w i t h o u t becoming a m a t t e r o f r e c o r d . Furthermore the number of immigrants f o r the whole of Canada f l u c t u a t e from 39 y e a r t o y e a r w i t h o u t i t b e i n g p o s s i b l e t o f i n d any u n d e r l y i n g t r e n d . I t may be t h a t i n t h e f u t u r e b e t t e r r e c o r d s w i l l be k e p t , b u t at p r e s e n t such gaps e x i s t . So s e r i o u s i s t h i s t h a t r e p o r t e d t h e r e i s now a ^ d i f f e r e n c e of about 40,000 i n t h e e s t i m a t e s of the p o p u l a t i o n o f B r i t i s h Columbia as d etermined by two d i f f e r e n t departments. And so w h i l e not w i t h o u t s i g n i f i c a n c e t h i s p a r t i c u l a r f a c t o r remains w h o l l y u n p r e d i c t a b l e . L e n g t h of s c h o o l i n g - - e x c l u d i n g c e r t a i n i r r e g u l a r v a r i a b l e s such as i m m i g r a t i o n o r e m i g r a t i o n - - a l s o becomes a v e r y i m p o r t -ant f a c t o r i n a r r i v i n g a t t h e p r o b a b l e f u t u r e s c h o o l a t t e n d -ance. F o r example i f the number of b i r t h s were c o n s t a n t f o r a p e r i o d of y e a r s c e r t a i n d e d u c t i o n s c o u l d be made as f o l l o w s ; (a) I f a l l t h e p u p i l s , a g a i n b a r r i n g deaths and r e m o v a l s , s t a y e d f o r e i g h t y e a r s the t o t a l s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n would be ( t a k i n g 12,000 b i r t h s p e r y e a r ) 96,000 p u p i l s . (b) I f however a l l t h e p u p i l s s t a y e d f o r t w e l v e y e a r s the s c h o o l attendance would be 144,000. (c) I f we t a k e f o r convenience an average of 30 p u p i l s per t e a c h e r , each a d d i t i o n a l y e a r t h e s e p u p i l s s t a y a t s c h o o l g i v e s employment t o 400 more t e a c h e r s . Length o f s c h o o l i n g i s thus a v e r y Important f a c t o r . Any d e c i d e d change such as c o n v e r t i n g an 8-3 t o a 6-3-3 p l a n i s bound t o a f f e c t t h e t o t a l s c h o o l e nrolment. 1. Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Ottawa, 760,000 ( a p p . ) , P r o v i n c i a l Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a 800,00 ( a p p . ) , b o t h f o r the y e a r 1938. (Reported i n p r i v a t e i n t e r v i e w w i t h A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a , J u l y 1939. 40 Many f a c t o r s , b o t h s o c i a l and economic, a f f e c t the l e n g t h of t ime the average p u p i l spends i n s c h o o l . There i s e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e l a s t two decades have seen a remarkable i n c r e a s e i n the s c h o o l p e r i o d and t h i s i n c r e a s e has accounted almost i n whole f o r t h e growth i n a t tendance at p u b l i c s c h o o l s i n B r i t i s h Columbia. C e r t a i n l y some of the most obvious f a c t o r s e x t e n d i n g t h e s c h o o l p e r i o d are t h e l a c k o f opportun-i t i e s f o r employment, the absence of an a p p r e n t i c e s h i p system, the urge t o escape th e i n s e c u r e p o s i t i o n of t h e u n s k i l l e d and g a i n access t o the apparent s e c u r i t y of t h e s k i l l e d t r a d e s and p r o f e s s i o n s , and p r o b a b l y t h e a l l - t o o - p r e v a l e n t tendency t o accept i t p a s s i v e l y as the t h i n g t o do. There has been a determined e f f o r t everywhere t o provide" f a c i l i t i e s f o r t h i s i n c r e a s i n g l y l a r g e number of p u p i l s who have l i n g e r e d on a t s c h o o l . B o t h p h y s i c a l equipment and courses have been d r a s t i c a l l y a l t e r e d t o meet the d e s i r e s of t h i s new group who have found th e o l d c o u r s e s n e i t h e r u s e f u l nor i n t e r e s t i n g . To what e x t e n t t h i s t r e n d towards more s c h o o l i n g w i l l c o n t i n u e i s d i f f i c u l t t o s a y . I t i s h a r d l y t o be e x p e c t e d t h a t e v e r y p u p i l w i l l complete the f u l l p e r i o d o f t w e l v e y e a r s . I n 1937 the enrolment i n Grade X I I was about 25 p e r cent of t h a t i n Grade I . E x c l u d i n g t h e u n p r e d i c t a b l e e f f e c t of t h e war many e d u c a t i o n i s t s c o n s i d e r t h a t a t l e a s t 50 p e r c e n t may i n the f u t u r e complete t h e e n t i r e c o u r s e . The e x p a n s i o n or c o n t r a c t i o n of e d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s can a l s o have a v e r y d e f i n i t e e f f e c t on t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s . There s t i l l r emain i n B r i t i s h Columbia two f i e l d s 41 t h a t have been but b a r e l y s c r a t c h e d , namely p r e - s c h o o l and a d u l t e d u c a t i o n . I t i s d o u b t f u l whether a d d i t i o n a l e d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s can be i n a u g u r a t e d w i t h o u t t h e r e b e i n g f i r s t a p u b l i c demand f o r such s e r v i c e s . I n most cases the demand i s s u g g ested r a t h e r t h a n e x p r e s s e d but i t must n e v e r t h e l e s s e x i s t . Whether s c h o o l s e r v i c e s expand o r c o n t r a c t i s l a r g e l y a m a t t e r o f c o s t . P r o f e s s o r L a Z e r t e of t h e U n i v e r s i t y of A l b e r t a i s quoted as s a y i n g t h a t w h i l e n e a r l y everyone a p p r e c i a t e s t h e v a l u e o f an e d u c a t i o n few are p r e p a r e d t o pay f o r i t . No Department o f E d u c a t i o n , however s t r o n g or p r o g r e s s i v e , can f o r l o n g exceed a r a t h e r i n d e f i n i t e maximum c o s t w i t h o u t m e e t i n g a c t i v e o p p o s i t i o n . As l o n g as e i t h e r e x p a n s i o n o r retrenchment remains under t h e a e g i s of a s i n g l e body s u c h as the C o u n c i l of P u b l i c I n s t r u c t i o n and as l o n g as the t r a i n i n g of t e a c h e r s i s w i t h i n the gambit of i t s c o n t r o l , so l o n g does e i t h e r remain r e a s o n -a b l y p r e d i c t a b l e and c o n t r o l l a b l e . A w e l l - f o r m u l a t e d , l o n g -term p o l i c y c o u l d p e r m i t t h e easy adjustment o f t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l t o changing r e q u i r e m e n t s and p r e v e n t c o n d i t i o n s which have a r i s e n i n the p a s t — a s u r p l u s o f c e r t a i n t y p e s of t e a c h e r s accompanied by a s i m u l t a n e o u s s h o r t a g e of o t h e r s . Sudden e r r a t i c o r u n p r e m e d i t a t e d changes would n u l l i f y any attempts t o r e g u l a t e e i t h e r the demand o r t h e s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s . With a g i v e n s t a n d a r d of e d u c a t i o n the need f o r t e a c h e r s depends upon how many p u p i l s t h e r e a re t o t e a c h . The number 42 of p u p i l s i s i n t u r n a f f e c t e d by t h e number of b i r t h s and the number of years each p u p i l spends i n s c h o o l . The number of b i r t h s i s r e l a t e d t o t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n w h i l e t h e s c h o o l p e r i o d i s c o n t r o l l e d by suoh f a c t o r s as employment c o n d i t i o n s , e d u c a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , p e r s o n a l a t t i t u d e s and o t h e r s . The number of t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s thus c r e a t e d r e p r e s e n t s the t o t a l demand f o r t e a c h e r s . The a c t u a l demand of any one y e a r i s some f r a c t i o n o f t h i s t o t a l . B. D i s t r i b u t i o n of S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n as A f f e c t e d by V a r i o u s F a c t o r s . The second major c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s not the t o t a l number of p u p i l s but how t h a t t o t a l i s d i s t r i b u t e d . The p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n l o c a t e d i n urban and i n r u r a l s c h o o l s i s an i m p o r t a n t i t e m . R u r a l c l a s s e s of n e c e s s i t y t e n d t o be s m a l l e r . As soon as any new d i s t r i c t can muster up seven c h i l d r e n of s c h o o l age i t can a p p l y f o r a s c h o o l . I n B r i t i s h Columbia t h e r e a re a l a r g e number of r u r a l s c h o o l s many w i t h j u s t t h e minimum number of p u p i l s and few w i t h more t h a n t wenty. Thus i f a l l t h e p u p i l s i n t h e r u r a l ungraded s c h o o l s c o u l d be c o l l e c t e d t o g e t h e r i n l a r g e sohools on t h e same b a s i s as urban s c h o o l s a l a r g e r e d u c t i o n i n the number of t e a c h e r s needed would f o l l o w at once. Hence any marked s h i f t i n the p o p u l a t i o n t o or f r o m t h e c i t i e s o r o t h e r t h i c k l y p o p u l a t e d areas has a d e f i n i t e e f f e c t on t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s w i t h o u t t h e r e b e i n g t h e s l i g h t e s t change i n t h e t o t a l s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e . C o n s o l i d a t i o n o f r u r a l s c h o o l s a l s o a f f e c t s t h e d i s -t r i b u t i o n o f the p u p i l s , b r i n g i n g w i t h i t a r e d u c t i o n i n t h e need f o r t e a c h e r s by i n c r e a s i n g t h e s i z e o f the c l a s s e s . A c t u a l cases o f c o n s o l i d a t i o n have p r o b a b l y not a f f e c t e d the demand f o r t e a c h e r s as much as might be ex p e c t e d because i t has been g e n e r a l l y c o n f i n e d t o areas which are f a i r l y w e l l p o p u l a t e d . The c o s t of t r a n s p o r t i n g p u p i l s over l o n g d i s t a n c e s i n s p a r s e l y s e t t l e d d i s t r i c t s p r o b a b l y o f f s e t s any s a v i n g i n t e a c h e r s s a l a r i e s . C o n s o l i d a t i o n i s a l s o d i s c o u r a g e d by the i n c r e a s e d time spent away from home each day and b y t h e d i f f i c u l t y of combating t h e elements i n tho s e s e c t i o n s of the c o u n t r y s u b j e c t t o heavy s n o w f a l l s . C o n s o l i d a t i o n i s a f a c t o r t o be c o n s i d e r e d but i n t h e problem of f o r e c a s t i n g i t becomes of minor i m p o r t a n c e , f o r o n l y c e r t a i n areas l e n d themselves t o i t s a d o p t i o n and t h e i n a u g u r a t i o n o f such a scheme r e q u i r e s c o n s i d e r a b l e p l a n n i n g so t h a t ample time i s a l l o w e d f o r i t s e f f e c t t o be d u l y d i s c o u n t e d . C. The Number of S e p a r a t i o n s . While t h e number o f t e a c h e r s a c t u a l l y r e q u i r e d i n any g i v e n y e a r depends upon the number of replacements of t e a c h e r s a c t i v e l y engaged d u r i n g t h e y e a r p l u s o r minus any requirements t o c o v e r e x p a n s i o n o r c o n t r a c t i o n of e d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s i n terms o f a change i n the number of p u p i l s . The t o t a l number of t e a c h i n g p o s i t i o n s i s de t e r m i n e d by t h e number and d i s t r i b u t i o n of the p u p i l s w h i l e the number of s e p a r a t i o n s i s r e l a t e d t o the t o t a l number o f p o s i t i o n s . While t h e p r e v i o u s two s e c t i o n s have c o n s i d e r e d the c o n d i t i o n s 44 a f f e c t i n g t h e t o t a l demand t h i s s e c t i o n d e a l s p r i m a r i l y w i t h one phase of the a c t u a l demand. Ev e r y y e a r a c e r t a i n number o f t e a c h e r s l e a v e t h e p r o -f e s s i o n . The o u t s t a n d i n g f a c t i s the r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e number. There a re o n l y enough graduates each y e a r t o r e p l a c e a l l the members of t h e m e d i c a l , d e n t a l o r l e g a l p r o f e s s i o n i n from 30 t o 40 y e a r s . Y e t i n t h e l a s t 15 y e a r s t h e r e have been s u f f i c -i e n t numbers o f Normal and Teacher T r a i n i n g graduates t o r e p l a c e t h e whole t e a c h i n g body more t h a n one and a h a l f times* As v e r y few f a i l e d t o secu r e p o s i t i o n s , t e a c h e r s on t h e averagemust not s t a y w i t h the p r o f e s s i o n f o r a p e r i o d l o n g e r t h a n about 10 y e a r s . . Why s h o u l d t e a c h i n g s u f f e r f r o m such a h i g h r a t e o f t u r n o v e r - - f o u r t i m e s as g r e a t as the o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n s ? O b v i o u s l y i t must be due t o c e r t a i n c h a r a c t -e r i s t i c s of t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n s ? The f i r s t and p r i m a r y d i f f e r e n c e i s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e s e x e s . I n t e a c h i n g , women out-number t h e men n e a r l y two t o one, but i n the o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n s , except n u r s i n g , women a r e t h e e x c e p t i o n . As a consequence m a r r i a g e d e p l e t e s the ranks of t h e t e a c h e r s more th a n any o t h e r s i n g l e f a c t o r . I n t h o s e c o u n t r i e s where m a r r i a g e i s no b a r i t s e f f e c t i s l e s s , b u t t r a d i t i o n a l l y and f o r economic reasons B r i t i s h Columbia and t h e o t h e r Canadian P r o v i n c e s a re o f f e r e d t o m a r r i e d women t e a c h e r s . W h i l e t h e m a r r i a g e r a t e i s by no means a c o n s t a n t q u a n t i t y , b e i n g r a t h e r s e n s i t i v e t o sudden economic changes, i t i s s t a b l e enough t o p e r m i t p r e d i c t i o n . As t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f men c o n t i n u e s t o i n c r e a s e the number 45 of s e p a r a t i o n s due t o m a r r i a g e w i l l become s m a l l e r . A second d i f f e r e n c e between t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n and the o t h e r major p r o f e s s i o n s i s i t s socio-eoonomic p e c u l i a r -i t i e s . The f a c t t h a t t e a c h e r s are p u b l i c s e r v a n t s under the c o n t r o l of p u b l i c b o d i e s and p a i d out of the p u b l i c purse exposes them t o c e r t a i n f o r m s o f p e t t y annoyances. These con-d i t i o n s t e n d t o d e t e r a l a r g e number of men f rom e n t e r i n g the p r o f e s s i o n and a c e r t a i n number a l r e a d y i n i t , h a v i n g become t h o r o u g h l y d i s s a t i s f i e d , l e a v e as o p p o r t u n i t i e s a r i s e . Low s a l a r i e s combined w i t h a f e e l i n g o f s o c i a l , i n f e r i o r i t y added t o a l l t h e l i t t l e g r i e v a n c e s t o g e t h e r may dampen some-what the e n t h u s i a s m of t h e most buoyant i n d i v i d u a l . When t h e r e Is no hope of advancement or improvement i t cannot be wonder-ed a t t h a t t e a c h i n g i s c o n s i d e r e d more t h a n a s t e p p i n g - s t o n e t o something b e t t e r . F o r t u n a t e l y i n B r i t i s h Columbia much has been done t o improve t h e s t a t u s of t e a c h e r s . Longer p e r i o d s of p r e p a r a t i o n a r e now r e q u i r e d , h i g h e r c e r t i f i c a t e s are demanded, minimum s a l a r y laws a r e i n e f f e c t and s e c u r i t y of t e n u r e e s t a b l i s h e d . I n a d d i t i o n a p r o p e r l y o r g a n i z e d p e n s i o n scheme i s i n vogue. A l l t h e s e t e n d t o r e s t r i c t t h o s e who would l i g h t l y e n t e r t h e p r o f e s s i o n and l e a v e as q u i c k l y . While i t i s t o o much t o hope t h a t t e a c h i n g can e v e r y be made as s t a b l e as d e n t i s t r y or m e d i c i n e mueh can and has been done towards t h a t end. H i g h e r s t a n d a r d s , b e t t e r w o r k i n g c o n d i t i o n s and g r e a t e r rewards a l l p o i n t i n t h a t d i r e c t i o n . Common t o a l l types of a c t i v i t y are c e r t a i n o t h e r f a c t o r s c a u s i n g v a c a n c i e s , namely d e a t h and r e t i r e m e n t . 46 R e t i r e m e n t and s u p e r a n n u a t i o n become i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p o r t a n t as s t a b l e c o n d i t i o n s develop and c o n t i n u e i n a t e a c h i n g body. As l o n g as the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n i s a mere s t e p p i n g stone t o something b e t t e r few w i l l remain l o n g enough t o f o r m a r e t i r i n g group of any s i z e and, s i g n i f i c a n c e . When t h e r e i s a p r o p e r l y o r g a n i z e d s u p e r a n n u a t i o n scheme as i n B r i t i s h Columbia i t i s v e r y easy t o f i n d out how many t e a c h e r s w i l l r e t i r e each y e a r f o r t h e next f i v e o r s i x y e a r s . Otherwise t h i s i s a d i f f i c u l t t h i n g t o de t e r m i n e . Much t h e same can be s a i d f o r the e f f e c t of m o r t a l i t y . I f t h e t e a c h i n g body i s a f a i r l y l a r g e and unchanging group the m o r t a l i t y l o s s e s can be d e t e r m i n e d w i t h a h i g h degree of a c c u r a c y . The number of y e a r l y s e p a r a t i o n s I s thus seen t o be due t o a v a r i e t y of f a c t o r s , some of t h e p e c u l i a r t o t h e t e a c h -i n g p r o f e s s i o n . M a r r i a g e of women t e a c h e r s and the tendency f o r men t o seek b e t t e r o c c u p a t i o n s are the major causes of v a c a n c i e s , a l t h o u g h deaths and r e t i r e m e n t s add t h e i r quota. A l l f l u c t u a t e , but the f i r s t two a r e by f a r t h e most v a r i a b l e s i n c e t h e y a r e r e s p o n s i v e t o economic c o n d i t i o n s . The o n l y means of p r e d i c t i o n c o n s i s t of p r o j e c t i n g t h e t r e n d s beyond the known d a t a . S i n c e economic changes cause and t h e r e f o r e precede f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the m a r r i a g e and employment r a t e i t i s p o s s i b l e t o weight t h e i r p r o j e c t i o n s and thus improve the ac c u r a c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e s . D. Economic C o n d i t i o n s . U n d e r l y i n g a l l the f a c t o r s w h i c h determine the demand 47 f o r t e a c h e r s , •> whether i t be t h e number of p u p i l s , how t h e y are d i s t r i b u t e d o r how many t e a c h e r s a n n u a l l y withdraw, i s the s u b t l e but a l l i m p o r t a n t o n e — e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s . I t i s now proposed t o show,.in t u r n , i n what way t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s a f f e c t a l l the o t h e r f a c t o r s . The growth i n p o p u l a t i o n o f Canada as a whole and of the p r o v i n c e s s e p a r a t e l y has been v e r y markedly c o n t r o l l e d by t h e c y c l e of p r o s p e r i t y and d e p r e s s i o n . The most r a p i d growth has o c c u r r e d d u r i n g p e r i o d s of p r o s p e r i t y — i n d e e d Canada has e n j o y -ed the g r e a t e s t i n c r e a s e s e v e r r e c o r d e d d u r i n g c e r t a i n p r o -sperous decades. T h i s e x p a n s i o n , however, has been due almost e n t i r e l y t o i m m i g r a t i o n . More r e c e n t l y , as a r e s u l t of the severe economic d e p r e s s i o n e m i g r a t i o n has exceeded i m m i g r a t i o n . Whether t h e r a t e of growth of t h e p o p u l a t i o n w i l l a g a i n advance at some f u t u r e date i s , p e r h a p s , not p r e d i c t a b l e . I t would seem however t h a t f o r B r i t i s h Columbia a t l e a s t , t h e f r o n t i e r s have been pushed back t o t h e i r u l t i m a t e and t h a t t h e r e remains o n l y t h e f i l l i n g up o f t e r r i t o r i e s a l r e a d y opened. N a t u r a l l y such a p r o c e s s i s l e s s a t t r a c t i v e ; t h e r e i s l e s s of t h e e l e -ment of chance. To a p i o n e e r t h e f u t u r e of a d i s t r i c t I s w h o l l y u n c h a r t e r e d and t h e r e f o r e h o l d s out undreamed of p o s s i b i l i t i e s but t h e f u t u r e of an e s t a b l i s h e d community I s more c e r t a i n l y d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e c o n d i t i o n s of the p r e s e n t . Many p e o p l e are i n v e t e r a t e gamblers and are much more w i l l i n g 48 t o r i s k t h e i r - p r e s e n t comfort f o r f u t u r e opulence than t h e y are t o accept a dead l e v e l of e x i s t e n c e . I n o t h e r words, a f t e r a r e g i o n has re a c h e d a c e r t a i n stage i n i t development, which might c o r r e s p o n d r o u g h l y w i t h e a r l y manhood, f u r t h e r growth and e x p a n s i o n become s l o w e r and more d i f f i c u l t . Many q u e s t i o n whether B r i t i s h Columbia w i l l ever a g a i n w i t n e s s such a r a p i d e xpansion i n p o p u l a t i o n as i t had d u r i n g the f i r s t decade of the t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y . The b i r t h r a t e has s u f f e r e d a g r a d u a l but c o n s t a n t d e c l i n e i n almost e v e r y c o u n t r y i n t h e w o r l d . C e r t a i n c o u n t r i e s f o r n a t i o n a l i s t i c reasons have endeavored t o check t h e d e c l i n e or even t o i n c r e a s e t h e b i r t h - r a t e by a v a r i e t y of schemes, such as bonuses, s u b s i d i e s , r e d u c t i o n s i n t a x e s , and appeals t o p a t r i o t i c f e e l i n g s , but a l l such methods have been w i t h o u t a v a i l - - t h e d e c l i n e c o n t i n u e s . M a l t h u s thought t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n would I n c r e a s e a t such a r a t e t h a t i t would be h e l d i n check o n l y by the l a c k of f o o d by d i s e a s e and by o t h e r c a l a m i t i e s such as war. Such however has not been the c a s e . At no time has t h e w o r l d been more c a p a b l e of p r o d u c i n g an abundance o f f o o d t h a n a t t h e p r e s e n t ; i n d e e d a t times t h e o v e r p r o d u c t i o n has been an a c t u a l e m b a r r a s s m e n t — a n d y e t t h e p o p u l a t i o n has almost ceased t o i n c r e a s e . M a l t h u s e r r e d on t h e p o i n t of over-s i m p l i f i c a t i o n . No s i n g l e f a c t o r c o n t r o l s t h e b i r t h - r a t e , i t 2. " B i r t h - R a t e " . E n c y c l o p a e d i a B r i t a n n i c a p.652, 14 ed., V o l . I l l , ( 1 9 3 7 ) . — — 49 i s t h e r e s u l t , o f the i n t e r p l a y of a number of f a c t o r s . One of t h e s e f a c t o r s i s the s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g . I f Malthus had s a i d " s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g " i n s t e a d of " f o o d " h i s statement would have been more n e a r l y t r u e . The p o p u l a t i o n tends t o i n c r e a s e t o such an e x t e n t t h a t an accept e d s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g can be m a i n t a i n e d w i t h d i f f i c u l t y . W h i l e t h e r e was a demand f o r more hands t o ten d t h e new machines and develop t h e new l a n d s the b i r t h - r a t e remained h i g h , but when a s u r p l u s of l a b o r began t o appear the b i r t h -r a t e began t o d e c l i n e and has c o n t i n u e d t o do so ever s i n c e . In b o t h the new and o l d w o r l d , c h i l d r e n were, f o r many ye a r s an economic a s s e t . To-day t h e y a re a g r e a t e r l i a b i l i t y t o t h e i r p a r e n t s t h a n t h e y have ever been i n t h e p a s t . I t has been su g g e s t e d t h a t as l o n g as c h i l d r e n remain an economic l i a b i l i t y , j u s t so l o n g w i l l t he b i r t h - r a t e c o n t i n u e t o d e c l i n e . I n e v e r y c o u n t r y t h e r e e x i s t s a f a i r l y l a r g e group of i n d i v i d u a l s who a r e w i l l i n g and r e a d y t o move t o t h a t p a r t of t h e w o r l d o f f e r i n g t h e b e s t o p p o r t u n i t i e s . N a t i o n a l i n d u s -t r i e s o f l a t e , however, have tended t o c u r b t h e s e mass m i g r a t i o n s towards t h o s e c o u n t r i e s e n j o y i n g t h e g r e a t e s t p r o s p e r i t y . The h i s t o r y of Canada has a number of examples of e x t e n s i v e i m m i g r a t i o n i n good t i m e s f o l l o w e d l a t e r by e m i g r a t i o n d u r i n g bad t i m e s . The removal of t h e s e r e s t r i c t i o n s might a g a i n see l a r g e number on t h e move. Whether t h i s w i l l be t h e case o r not w i l l be due l a r g e l y t o p o l i t i c a l con-s i d e r a t i o n s and must t h e r e f o r e g i v e s u f f i c i e n t w arning t o 50 a l l o w f o r any n e c e s s a r y p r e p a r a t i o n s . Not o n l y do c o u n t r i e s as a whole e x p e r i e n c e t h i s ebb and f l o w of. humanity but communities l i k e w i s e , and f o r much the same r e a s o n s . T h i s l o c a l s h i f t I n p o p u l a t i o n , however, does not as s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t the attempts at p l a n n i n g as t h e form-e r . I t r e q u i r e s a s h i f t i n t h e d i s p o s i t i o n of the p e r s o n n e l b u t does not i n v o l v e a change i n the t o t a l . Economic c o n d i t i o n s have p l a y e d a l a r g e p a r t i n the l e n g t h of s c h o o l i n g e n j o y e d by p u p i l s of d i f f e r e n t p e r i o d s . I n c r e a s i n g n a t i o n a l w e a l t h has made p o s s i b l e a l o n g e r p e r i o d of p r e p a r a t i o n " f o r t h e r i s i n g g e n e r a t i o n . I n c r e a s i n g mechan-i z a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of the n a t i o n ' s a c t i v i t i e s have n e c e s s i t a t e d more t r a i n i n g . These, h i s t o r i c a l l y , have been the r o o t causes of l o n g e r s c h o o l i n g . R e c e n t l y , however, we have w i t n e s s e d a s t i l l f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e brought about t h i s time by an e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t f a c t o r , namely unemployment. With n o t h i n g t o do and no p r o s p e o t s of work l a r g e numbers of p u p i l s have c o n t i n u e d w i t h t h e i r edueation--some t o put I n the t i m e - - o t h e r s t o p r e p a r e themselves b e t t e r f o r t h e com-p e t i t i v e s t r u g g l e f o r j o b s . Improved economic c o n d i t i o n s would p r o b a b l y see a l e s s e n i n g o f t h e a t t e n d a n c e , due t o t h e w i t h d r a w a l s o f t h o s e who out of n e c e s s i t y or p r e f e r e n c e would t a k e a job i n s t e a d of a t t e n d i n g s c h o o l . To c o u n t e r -b a l a n c e t h i s , however, i s t h e growing p u b l i c acceptance of the f a c t t h a t as f a r as p o s s i b l e , h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t i o n i s the minimum e s s e n t i a l . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g p u b l i c e d u c a t i o n a l systems do not move i n advance of p u b l i c demands. I t i s time t h e y may i n i t i a l s new schemes but any c o n c e r t e d a c t i o n can o n l y f o l l o w p u b l i c e n l i g h t m e n t as t o the need f o r and v a l u e of an added s e r v i c e . These new s e r v i c e s , d u r i n g t h e i r t r i a l s t a g e , are p a r t i c u l a r l y v u l n e r a b l e t o economic c o n d i t i o n s s i n c e no government, no m a t t e r how f i r m l y e n t r e n c h e d can e n t i r e l y Ignore the c o s t s i n v o l v e d . R a p i d e x p a n s i o n i n t i m e s o f p r o s p e r i t y o f t e n l e a d t o even more r a p i d c o n t r a c t i o n s d u r i n g times of d e p r e s s i o n . W e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d s e r v i c e s s u f f e r l e s s from t h e b u s i n e s s c y c l e than more r e c e n t a d d i t i o n s but f o r t h e t i m e , a t l e a s t , a l l e x p a n s i o n ceases and i f the d e p r e s s i o n i s severe r e c e n t advancements are l o s t . The g r a d u a l decrease I n t h e number of p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r t h a t occurs d u r i n g p e r i o d s o f p r o g r e s s s u f f e r s a s e t b a c k w i t h the o n s l a u g h t of economic d i f f i c u l t i e s . A d m i n i s t r a t o r s q u i c k -l y d i s c o v e r t h a t t h e i r o n l y hope of s u b s t a n t i a l retrenchment l i e s i n r e d u c i n g s a l a r y c o s t s b o t h by r e d u c t i o n s i n s a l a r i e s and by r e d u c t i o n s i n p e r s o n n e l . L o s t ground i s d i f f i c u l t t o r e c a p t u r e ; a community e a s i l y come t o b e l i e v e t h a t i t can do w i t h o u t t h e e x t r a t e a c h e r s . The need f o r t e a c h e r s may thus d e c l i n e . The economic s t a t e o f a c o u n t r y even a f f e c t s the r a t e at which t h e p o p u l a t i o n d r i f t s c i t y w a r d . The t r e n d has been from t h e c o u n t r y t o the c i t y f o r some y e a r s . The i n c r e a s i n g i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of Canada has g r e a t l y a c c e l e r a t e d i t s i n c e the t u r n of t h e c e n t u r y . The conveniences and p l e a s u r e s of c i t y l i f e have a l s o been a p o w e r f u l f o r c e c a u s i n g an i n c r e a s e 52 i n u r b a n i z a t i o n . However t h e r a t e has not been c o n s t a n t — p r o s p e r i t y a c c e l e r a t i n g and a d v e r s i t y r e t a r d i n g i t . L i k e w i s e t e a c h e r s l e a v e t h e p r o f e s s i o n when o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n o t h e r f i e l d s of a c t i v i t y are good. Economic s t r e s s , how-e v e r , reduces t h e number of s e p a r a t i o n s t o t h e a b s o l u t e minimum. Indeed a f a i r l y l a r g e number of f o r m e r t e a c h e r s suddenly d i s c o v e r t h a t t e a c h i n g i s not so c o m p l e t e l y l a c k i n g i n p o s s i b i l i t i e s as t h e y had supposed and r e t u r n t o upset f u r t h e r the b a l a n c e between s u p p l y and demand. Fu n d a m e n t a l l y , t h e n , each f a c t o r a f f e c t i n g the demand f o r t e a c h e r s has i t s r o o t s b u r i e d i n the economic c o n d i t i o n s of t h e c o u n t r y . I n some cases t h e s e f a c t o r s are q u i c k l y r e s p o n s i v e t o sudden changes i n the economic sphere; i n ot h e r s the r e s u l t i n g f l u c t u a t i o n s are more d e l i b e r a t e and extended. While i t i s not n e c e s s a r y t o be f o r e v e r w a t c h i n g t h e economic s t a t e o f a c o u n t r y a r a t h e r l a r g e and d e f i n i t e change i n c o n d i t i o n s s h o u l d be s u f f i c i e n t w a rning t o expect c e r t a i n c o r r e s p o n d i n g changes t o occur i n t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s . A p e r i o d of e x p a n s i o n can be e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e and a sudden and d e f i n i t e r e g r e s s i o n t o decrease t h e normal demand f o r t e a c h e r s . H a ving d i s c u s s e d a t some l e n g t h the e f f e c t of v a r i o u s f a c t o r s on t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s , we now t u r n t o a q u a n t i t a t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e same problems. 53 ' \ CHAPTER IV A S t a t i s t i c a l Study of Some F a c t o r g A f f e c t i n g Demand. A. S c h o o l P o p u l a t i o n . To the end t h a t some d e d u c t i o n s and c o n c l u s i o n s can be f o r m u l a t e d as t o the p r o b a b l e f u t u r e changes i n the s c h o o l enrolment i t w i l l be n e c e s s a r y , f i r s t , t o d i s c u s s i n some d e t a i l t he growth of p o p u l a t i o n as i t has o c c u r r e d i n Canada as a whole and i n the p r o v i n c e i n p a r t i c u l a r . Census t a k i n g as a r e g u l a r i n s t i t u t i o n has been i n e f f e c t i n Canada s i n c e 1852 so t h a t a c c u r a t e r e c o r d s have been kept of t h e growth and s h i f t i n p o p u l a t i o n f o r the p a s t n i n e t y y e a r s . The growth i n p o p u l a t i o n i n Canada s i n c e the t u r n of the c e n t u r y has been v e r y r e m a r k a b l e e s p e c i a l l y when compared w i t h t h a t of p r e v i o u s decades and w i t h cbher c o u n t r i e s . T a b l e I shows t h e p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e i n each decade over the p r e -v i o u s decade f o r Canada and f o r f i v e o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . While the number of examples i s r a t h e r l i m i t e d i t can h a r d l y be q u e s t i o n e d t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n s o f t h e new c o u n t r i e s have i n c r e a s e d f a s t e r t h a n t h o s e of t h e o l d . From t h i s t a b l e i t can be seen t h a t i n t h e decade from 1901-1911 t h e p o p u l a t i o n of Canada grew a t a f a s t e r r a t e than i n any o t h e r decade s i n c e C o n f e d e r a t i o n as w e l l as o u t s t r i p p i n g , r e l a t i v e l y , e v e r y o t h e r c o u n t r y . T h i s g r e a t i n c r e a s e , of c o u r s e , was almost e n t i r e l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the i m m i g r a t i o n o f l a r g e numbers of p e o p l e , r u n n i n g i n some years t o over 400,000. The opening t o s e t t l e m e n t of t h e " l a s t b e s t 54 west" p e r m i t t e d t h e ready a b s o r p t i o n of the s e v a s t numbers. The p o p u l a t i o n of Saskatchewan d u r i n g t h e same p e r i o d i n -c r e a s e d by 439 p e r c e n t . TABLE I The Growth i n P o p u l a t i o n by Decades E x p r e s s e d as a Percentage of the P o p u l a t i o n of t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r Canada from 1871-1931 and F i v e Other C o u n t r i e s f rom 1901-1931.' Country 1871 t o 1881 1881 t o 1891 1891 t o 1901 1901 t o 1911 1911 t o 1921 1921 t o 1931 Canada 17.23 11.76 11.13 34.17 21.94 18.08 U.S.A. 21.0* 14.9* 16.1* E n g l a n d & Wales 10.9 5.0 5.4 S c o t l a n d 6.5 2.6 .8 Hew Z e a l a n d 30.5 20.9 24.0 A u s t r a l i a 18.05 22.01 19.85 * Decades 1900-1910, 1910-1920, 1920-1930 I t i s r a t h e r d o u b t f u l whether Canada w i l l ever, a g a i n e x p e r i e n c e s u c h a phenomenal growth, c e r t a i n l y not w i t h o u t i m m i g r a t i o n on a v e r y l a r g e s c a l e . The l a s t decade, however, has seen t h i s d w i n d l e away t o a mere t r i c k l e . I n any event, o n l y by a g r e a t e r i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n of t h e c o u n t r y ' s a c t i v i t i e s c o u l d Canada hope t o p r o v i d e work f o r any g r e a t e r number of p e o p l e . 1. The Canada Y e a r Book, 1934-35. p.102: Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1935. 55 F i g u r e - 1;, (drawn on r a t i o paper) shows g r a p h i c a l l y the growth of p o p u l a t i o n i n Canada. I t has been p r o j e c t e d t o 1941 based on i n t e r c e n s a l e s t i m a t e s . I t w i l l be noted t h a t t h e r e has been a f a i r l y s t e a d y , and f o r a l a r g e c o u n t r y , even s p e c t a c u l a r i n c r e a s e but when compared w i t h the growth of the w e s t e r n p r o v i n c e s i t p a l e s i n t o i n s i g n i f i c a n c e . (See F i g . 2 ) . C e r t a i n d e d u c t i o n s seem t o f o l l o w , s p e c i f i c a l l y t h a t the West a i d e d by modern t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and a d v e r t i s i n g passed t h r o u g h t h e s t a g e s of e x p l o r a t i o n , s e t t l e m e n t and expansion i n t h e s h o r t space of a few decades whereas th e o l d e r p a r t s of Canada had p r o g r e s s e d s l o w l y t h r o u g h a t l e a s t two c e n t u r i e s . T a b l e I I which g i v e s t h e percentage change i n p o p u l a t i o n by decades b r i n g s out t h i s p o i n t v e r y f o r c i b l y . I n B r i t i s h Columbia d u r i n g t h e t h i r t y y e a r s f rom 1881 t o 1911 t h e i n c r e a s e f o r each decade over t h e p r e v i o u s one was n e a r l y 10G p e r c e n t . T h i s meant the p o p u l a t i o n was d o u b l i n g - i t s e l f e v e r y t e n y e a r s . The next twenty y e a r s f rom 1911-1951 saw the i n c r e a s e drop t o almost 30 p e r c e n t whereas the p r e s e n t decade by e s t i m a t e , w i l l not a p p a r e n t l y exceed 12 t o 15 per c e n t . The e v i d e n c e a l l p o i n t s t o t h e f a c t t h a t B r i t i s h Columbia a l o n g w i t h t h e o t h e r w e s t e r n p r o v i n c e s , h a v i n g caught up t o the e a s t w i l l f r o m now on e x p e r i e n c e more modest i n c r e a s e s In p o p u l a t i o n . 56 Years F i g . 1 The P o p u l a t i o n of Canada by Decades, 1871-to-1931 57 '' TABLE I I The Growth i n P o p u l a t i o n by Decades E x p r e s s e d as a Percentage of t h e P o p u l a t i o n of t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r the P r o v i n c e s o f Canada I n c l u d i n g Yukon and the N o r t h West T e r r i t o r i e s from 1871 t o 1931. I n c r e a s e o r Decrease Percentage P r o v i n c e 1871 t o 1881 1881 t o 1891 1891 t o 1901 1901 t o 1911 1911 t o 1921 1921 t o 1931 I n 60 y e a r s 1582 1361 1406 18.88 P.E.I. Nova S c o t i a New Brunswick 1248 Quebec O n t a r i o Manitoba|146.7S Sask. A l b e r t a B r i t i s h Columbia Yukon N.W.T. 36.45 0J7 2.23 0.01 9.53 9.73 -5.33 2.04 3.07 10.77 3.25 67.34 17.60 98.4S 75.32 82.98 -79.66; -9.23 7.13 6.27 21.64 15.77 80.79 439.48 412.58 119.68 -68.73 -67.67 -5.46 6.40 10.23 17.69 16.08 32.23 53.83 57.22 33.66 •51.16 22.76 -0.65 2.10 5.24 21.76 16.98 14.75 21.69 24.33 32.35 1.76 21.72 -6.36 32.24 42.94 141.23 111.72 2,675.25 1,815.37 -79.79 T a b l e I I I i s d e s i g n e d t o b r i n g t o g e t h e r t h e expansions i n s c h o o l and t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r B r i t i s h Columbia. Some might n a t u r a l l y expect t h a t t h e two would advance at t h e same r a t e - - i f t h e p o p u l a t i o n were doubled t h e s c h o o l e n r o l -ment s h o u l d be t w i c e as much. I t i s e v i d e n t f rom T a b l e I I I t h a t such i s not always the ca s e . T h i s d i v e r g e n c e i s p a r t -i c u l a r l y n o t i c e a b l e i n a young, r a p i d l y d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y 2. I b i d . , p.100 58 where the advent of more s e t t l e d c o n d i t i o n s l e a d s t o i n c r e a s e d s c h o o l i n g . TABLE I I I The I n c r e a s e i n P o p u l a t i o n and S c h o o l Enrolment by Decades as a Percentage of t h e P r e v i o u s Decade f o r B r i t i s h Columbia f r o m 1871 t o 1941. 3 Percentage I n c r e a s e P o p u l a t i o n S c h o o l Enrolment 1871 t o 1881 36.45 185.9 1881 t o 1891 98.49 260.2 1891 t o 1901 81.98 155.1 1901 t o 1911 119.68 91.9 1911 t o 1921 33.66 90.5 1921 t o 1931 32.35 32.5 1931 t o 1941 15*"* 10* ' E s t i m a t e d The l a s t t h r e e decades of t h e 1 9 t h c e n t u r y were out-s t a n d i n g f o r t h e magnitude of the p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e s i n s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e . E q u a l l y s u r p r i s i n g i s t h e s c h o o l enrolment i n the p r e s e n t decade, which, u n l e s s something u n f o r e s e e n occurs i n t h e next y e a r or two, w i l l s c a r c e l y advance by as much as 10 p e r c e n t . I t does not appear t o be even k e e p i n g a b r e a s t o f t h e e x p a n s i o n i n t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , a t h i n g which o n l y happened i n one o t h e r decade, and t h e n f o r a d i f f e r e n t r e a s o n . I n the p e r i o d 1901-1911 the p o p u l a t i o n of a d u l t s became much g r e a t e r t h a n b e f o r e due t o e x t e n s i v e i m m i g r a t i o n , whereas i n the p r e s e n t decade i t must be due t o a d e c l i n e i n 3. Loc. C i t . A n nual Report of the P u b l i c S c h o o l s of B r i t i s h Columbia. V i c t o r i a , Department of EducaiJion. the p r o p o r t i o n o f young p e o p l e as a r e s u l t of a drop i n the b i r t h - r a t e . F i g u r e 2 shows the growth i n p o p u l a t i o n and s c h o o l attendance f o r B r i t i s h Columbia f o r the l a s t s i x t y y e a r s . The r e s u l t s have been extended t o 1941 by u s i n g e s t i m a t e d v a l u e s . The f i g u r e b r i n g s out v e r y c l e a r l y the two f a c t s a l r e a d y mentioned, t h a t w h i l e s c h o o l and t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n are u s u a l l y o l o s e l y r e l a t e d c o n s i d e r a b l e d i v e r g e n c e can a r i s e due t o a change i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n of c h i l d r e n t o a d u l t s , the l e n g t h of t i m e spent i n s c h o o l by each c h i l d , o r b o t h . By comparing F i g u r e 2 w i t h F i g u r e 1 i t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e t o observe how much f a s t e r and more I r r e g u l a r B r i t i s h Columbia's growth has been t h a n has Canada's. U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e t r u e d i f f e r e n c e i s not f u l l y b rought out because t h e 3 f i n c h c y c l e of F i g u r e l has been reduced t o 2 i n c h e s i n F i g u r e 2 t o a l l o w f o r t h e t h r e e c y c l e s . I t I s of c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t , not t o say i m p o r t a n c e , t o know whether th e l a t e s t t r e n d i n s c h o o l attendance p r e -sages a new e r a o f s t a t i o n a r y o r d e c l i n i n g enrolment. F u r t h e r evidence w i l l be brought t o bear upon t h i s Important q u e s t i o n b e f o r e any attempt i s made t o f o r m a c o n c l u s i o n . T a b l e IV g i v e s the enrolment f o r the e n t i r e s c h o o l system as w e l l as f o r t h e e l e m e n t a r y and h i g h s c h o o l s e c t i o n s and a l s o f o r c e r t a i n grades f o r t h e y e a r s f r o m 1918-1938. When t h e enrolment (Table IV) i s broken down i n t o t h e elementary and h i g h s c h o o l s e c t i o n s c e r t a i n s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t s appear. I n t h e l a s t t w e n t y y e a r s (1918-1938) t h e e l e m e n t a r y /'-ens Years F i g . 2. The P o p u l a t i o n and S c h o o l Enrolment f o r B r i t i s h Columbia by Decades, 1871-1931. s c h o o l attendance has i n c r e a s e d from 62,366 t o 97,778, an i n c r e a s e o f 56.78 p e r cent w h i l e the enrolment has jumped from 5,150 t o 22,582, an advance of 438.5 p e r c e n t . The o n l y p l a u s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r such a marked d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t a g r e a t e r p e r c e n t a g e of t h e p u p i l s a re c o n t i n u i n g on i n t o h i g h s c h o o l than f o r m e r l y . The attendanceby s e l e c t e d grades v e r i f i e s t h i s c o n c l u s i o n . While t h e Grade I enrolment has remained a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same, Grade V I I I has made some advancement w h i l e Grades I X , X I I have shown a marked i n c r e a s e . Another i m p o r t a n t f a c t i s t h a t s i n c e 1931 the elementary s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e has remained s u b s t a n t i a l l y the same. F u r t h e r -more the b e g i n n i n g c l a s s (Grade I ) which s h o u l d be a good barometer of subsequent r e g i s t r a t i o n , f i r s t r e a c h e d t h e 10,000 mark i n 1912, a t t a i n e d t h e a l l time h i g h of 15,076 i n 1928 and has f l u c t u a t e d between t e n and t h i r t e e n thousand (except i n f o u r y e a r s ) f o r the l a s t 26 y e a r s . A l l t h e s e f a c t s t a k e n t o g e t h e r would l e a d one t o conclude t h a t w h i l e on the s u r f a c e t h e r e has been a c o n s i s t e n t e x p a n s i o n i n s c h o o l attendance r i g h t up t o the p r e s e n t d a t e , b a s i c a l l y t h i s i n c r e a s e ceased some ye a r s ago. F i g u r e 3 d e p i c t s g r a p h i c a l l y t h e changes t h a t have o c c u r r e d t o t h r e e of t h e items of T a b l e I V , - - t h e enrolments f o r h i g h and e l e m e n t a r y s e c t i o n s and f o r grade I , Once a g a i n the l o g a r i t h m i c s c a l e i s used t o show the r e l a t i v e changes i n the t h r e e f a c t o r s . The l a r g e I n c r e a s e i n the h i g h s c h o o l , the s m a l l change i n t h e el e m e n t a r y s c h o o l , and the d e c i d e d s t a b i l i t y of t h e Grade I attendance are a l l c l e a r l y discernab]©. - ; TABLE 17(a) Enrolment i n s e l e c t e d p a r t s of the S c h o o l Systems f o r B r i t i s h n. Columbia, 1918 t o 1938. Enrolment Year T o t a l Enrolment Elementary S c h o o l High S c h o o l 1918 67,516 62,366 5,150 1919 72,006 66,200 5,806 1920 79,243 72,607 6,636 1921 85,950 78,691 7,259 1922 91,919 83,285 8,634 1923 94,888 85,668 9,220 1924 96,204 86,315 9,889 1925 97,954 87,357 10,597 1926 101,688 89,909 11,779 1927 105,008 92,102 12,906 1928 108,179 94,663 13,516 1929 109,558 95,013 14,545 1930 111,017 96,342 14,675 1931 113,914 97,717 16,197 1932 115,919 97,785 18,134 1933 116,816 98,264 18,552 1934 115,792 96,860 18,932 1935 117,233 97,264 19,969 1936 116,722 95,603 21,119 1937 118,431 96,093 22,338 1938 120,360 97,778 22,582 1939 120.934 97.178 23.747 Year Grade I Grade V I I I Grade IX Grade X I I S e n i o r 1918 11,012 1919 13,936 1920 1921 1922 1923 13,992 14,054 13,714 1924 13,436 9,106 4. I b i d . T a b l e IV (b) c o n t i n u e d Year Grade I Grade V I I I Grade IX Grade X I I S e n i o r M a t r i c 1925 12,951 9,624 1926 13,483 10,159 1927 14,860 10,134 6,726 2,426 2,754 194 1928 • 15,076 10,523 6,629 189 1929 14,141 10,119 7,819 3,008 428 1930 13,937 10,691 7,469 2,921 570 1931 13,676 10,467 7,981 3,650 562 1932 12,937 10,491 8,036 1,810 841 1933 12,343 10,724 7,679 2,747 504 1934 11,251 11,323 7,871 3,132 620 1935 12,683 11,788 8,849 3,147 647 1936 12,171 11,877 9,369 3,120 452 1957 12,824 11,459 9,808 3,281 449 1938 13,158 11,349 10,040 3,471 464 1939 12,483 11,115 9,847 4,137 660 A number of communities are a l r e a d y e x p e r i e n c i n g what i n a l l p r o b a b i l i t y w i l l u l t i m a t e l y be t r u e of the p r o v i n c e as a whole, namely a d e f i n i t e d e c l i n e i n r e g i s t r a t i o n i n t h e elementary s c h o o l s w i t h a c o n t i n u e d i n c r e a s e i n t h e h i g h s c h o o l e n r o l m e n t . Vaneouver r e p o r t s a decrease of 700 i n t h e elementary s c h o o l s which i s o f f s e t somewhat by a 200 i n c r e a s e I n the h i g h s c h o o l s . Burnaby l i k e w i s e has a 200 decrease i n the e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l and 160 I n c r e a s e i n h i g h s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e . ^ The b i r t h r a t e has been d e c l i n i n g g r a d u a l l y i n B r i t i s h Columbia as i t has been d o i n g i n n e a r l y a l l s e c t i o n s of t h e more c i v i l i z e d w o r l d . "The crude b i r t h r a t e of E n g l a n d and Wales, f o r example, was 35.4 p e r 1000 p o p u l a t i o n on t h e a v e r -age f o r t h e decennary 1871-80; 32.5 f o r 1881-90 and 29.9 f o r 5. " C i t y ' s Schools Get Ice Plants',' Vancouver D a i l y P r o v i n c e , Vancouver, September 12, 1939. BT^Attendance I n c r e a s e " , Vancouver D a i l y P r o v i n c e , Vancouver, October 6, 1939 - d 7° Co 4.0 JO .P •J / o / — — *—"~> 1- 7 -S=5j — ft r \ &o 1 — i ! i I I i C- / ^ > / —< ( k ->'—• c • y y -» • > ——* / / or>\ - -1 1 Y e a r s . P i g . 3 S c h o o l Attendance f o r E l e m e n t a r y and High Schools, and Grade I f o r B r i t i s h Columbia from 1918 t o 1938, As at June 3 0 t h , of Each Year 65 1891-1900.- I n 1913 the b i r t h r a t e was 24.1 and though i t rose t o 25.5 i n 1920 i t f e l l a g a i n t o 22.4 i n 1921, 19.7 i n 1923, and thence by s u c c e s s i v e s t a t e s t o 16.6 i n 1927, r i s i n g t o 16.7 i n 1928, but t h e r e a f t e r f a l l i n g g r a d u a l l y each 7 y e a r t o 15.3 i n 1932. S i m i l a r l y i n France the b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n e d from 25.4 per 1000 p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e 1870's t o 15.1 i n 1 9 3 2 / " I n Canada t h e crude b i r t h r a t e s t i l l s t ands a t a com-p a r a t i v e l y h i g h f i g u r e , b e i n g 20.9 p e r 1000 i n 1933. T h i s however i s l a r g e l y due t o the i n f l u e n c e of Quebec, where the r a t e , a l t h o u g h d e c l i n i n g , s t i l l s t o o d a t 25.9 p e r 1000 i n 1933, •" ' ' • • :• q as compared w i t h 18.1 p e r 1000 i n O n t a r i o . " B r i t i s h Columbia has t h e l o w e s t b i r t h r a t e of any of the p r o v i n c e s . P o s s i b l y t h i s i s due t o t h e l a r g e number of e l d e r l y p e o p l e who, a t t r a c t e d by. t h e m i l d c l i m a t e , come t o the P a c i f i c Coast t o spend t h e i r d e c l i n i n g y e a r s . A comparison of the r a t e s f o r t h e v a r i o u s P r o v i n c e s and Canada as a whole i s s u p p l i e d by T a b l e V. The f i r s t t w o rows g i v e the f i v e h i g h e r y e a r averages f o r t h e p e r i o d s i n d i c a t e d . Quebec d i d not r e p o r t p r i o r t o 1926. Table V I shows t h e number of b i r t h s ^ e s t i m a t e d p o p u l a -t i o n except f o r the census y e a r 1931, and crude b i r t h r a t e (number of b i r t h s p e r 1000 p o p u l a t i o n ) f o r t h e P r o v i n c e o f 7. Canada Year Book, op. c l t . , p. 177 8. I b i d . 9. I b i d . 66 B r i t i s h Columbia f o r t h e y ears 1928-1938 i n c l u s i v e . TABLE V Number of B i r t h s p e r 1000 P o p u l a t i o n f o r Each P r o v i n c e and jD Canada, 1921-1933. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man.. Sask. A l t a , B.C. Can. Averages n 1921-25 22.6 23.4 28.4 -- 23.7 26.8 27.7 26.0 18.4 1926-30 19.7 21.4 25.8 30.5 21.0 21.7 24.7 24.2 16.2 24 J. tt 1931 21.3 22.6 26.5 29.1 20.2 20.5 23.1 23.6 15.0 23*2 »i 1932 22.8 22.4 26.2 28.3 19.2 19.9 22.3 23.0 14.5 w 1933 21.9 21.4 23.9 25.9 18.1 18.4 21.2 21.3 13.5 20.9 TABLE V I Number of B i r t h s , B i r t h - R a t e , and P o p u l a t i o n f o r B r i t i s h Columbia, 1928-38 I n c l u s i v e / ' Y e a r Number o f B i r t h s P o p u l a t i o n ^ B i r t h - R a t e 1928 10 ,385 641, 000 16.2 1929 10 ,378 659, 000 15.7 1930 10 ,867 676, 000 15.0 1931 10 ,404 694, 263 ( c e i i . )15.0 1932 10 ,214 704, 000 14.5 1933 9 ,583 712, 000 13 .5 1934 9 ,813 725, 000 13.5 1935 10 ,013 735, 000 13.6 1936 10 ,571 750, 000 14.0 1937 l i t ,279 751, 000 15.0 1938 12 ,000* 761, 000 15.7 * ApproxJ Lmate # I n t e r c e n s a l E s t i m a t e s of P o p u l a t i o n except 1931 The d e c l i n e i n t h e number o f b i r t h s (Table V I ) t h a t o c c u r r e d f r o m 1930 t o 1934 would seem t o i n d i c a t e t h a t economic c o n d i t i o n s d e f i n i t e l y a f f e c t t h e b i r t h r a t e . I t has r e c o v e r e d s i n c e 1935 a l t h o u g h i t i s s t i l l below the 1928 l e v e l . 10. I b i d . 11. R e g i s t r a r of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a . P r i v a t e L e t t e r , December 19, 1938. 67 Whether I t , w i l l c o n t i n u e t o r i s e o r a g a i n d e c l i n e cannot be f o r e t o l d but u n l e s s economic or p o l i t i c a l d i f f i c u l t l e s c r e a t e u n u s u a l c o n d i t i o n s i t would seem p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e b i r t h -r a t e might s t a b i l i z e around t h e average o f the l a s t t e n or f i f t e e n y e a r s . I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the b i r t h - r a t e i t i s e n l i g h t e n i n g t o examine t h e age d i s t r i b u t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n . As t h e r e are no r e l i a b l e methods of e s t i m a t i n g t h e p o p u l a t i o n by age groups o n l y t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e census f i g u r e s can be used. TABLE V I I Number p e r 1000 of P o p u l a t i o n by Age Groups f o r Census Y e a r s f o r Canada 1871-1931. Age Groups 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 Under 1 y e a r 30 28 24 24 25 23 19 1-4 y r s . 115 108 99 95 97 96 84 5-9 y r s . 140 128 121 114 108 119 109 10-19 y r s , 239 227 219 210 191 195 203 20-29 y r s , 171 175 178 173 189 159 163 30-39 y r s , 111 113 122 129 141 146 134 40-49 y r s , 79 83 88 98 100 109 118 50-59 y r s , 54 58 62 67 69 73 82 60 & over 55 63 70 76 71 74 83 Not g i v e n --- ' 13 13 9 5 2 0 C e r t a i n f a c t s s t a n d out i n T a b l e V I I . F i r s t , t h e r e i s a marked d e c l i n e i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f c h i l d r e n under one y e a r , f r o m 50 p e r thousand i n 1871 t o 19 p e r thousand i n 1931. Indeed, i n t h e decade f r o m 1921 t o 1931 t h e p o p u l a t i o n of Canada i n c r e a s e d by 1,567,837 ( f r o m 8,787,949 t o 10,376,786), 12. Canada Ye a r Book. op. c l t ; , p . 117 68 y e t t h e number of c h i l d r e n under 10 years o f age remained amost the same (2,106,200 and 2,207, 400 r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . Second, e v e r y age group shows a decrease i n 1931 as compared w i t h 1871 u n t i l we come t o the age group, 30-39. T h i r d , I n 1871, 526 but of e v e r y thousand were under 20 years of age but i n 1931 t h e p r o p o r t i o n had d e c l i n e d t o 416. And f o u r t h , 1931 was the f i r s t year i n which the number of c h i l d r e n 4 y e a r s and under was l e s s t h a n t h e number I n the age group 5 t o 9 y e a r s . Those 9 years and under, however, s t i l l exceeded the number f o u n d I n the age p e r i o d 10-19. The 1931 census r e s u l t s f o r B r i t i s h Columbia can be b r i e f l y summarized as f o l l o w s : Under 5 y e a r s 5-9 y e a r s 10-14 y e a r s 15-19 years A c t u a l 51,979 59,149 59,823 62,346 numbers These numbers r e p r e s e n t the a c t u a l f i g u r e s , not p r o p o r t i o n s , f o u n d I n t h e r e s p e c t i v e age groups. IJr I s apparent t h e number of c h i l d r e n i s . not b e i n g m a i n t a i n e d . There were 10,000 fewer i n t h e age group 4 y e a r s and under, t h a n i n the group 15-19. U n l i k e t h e average f o r Canada t h e r e were a l s o fewer under 10 y e a r s t h a n i n the age p e r i o d 10-19. B r i t i s h Columbia a l s o had t h e s m a l l e s t p r o p o r t i o n of p e o p l e under 20 years of age of any p r o v i n c e i n Canada, namely 356 p e r thousand compared t o 416 f o r a l l o f Canada. 13. R e g i s t r a r of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , op. c i t 69 I t I s r e p o r t e d t h a t i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t h e r e are fewer persons below the any of 15 y e a r s now t h a n at any time i n t h e i f l a s t 40 y e a r s . The t r u t h of t h e statement cannot be vouched . f o r but i f i t i s t i m e i t i s a r a t h e r s t a r t l i n g f a c t . I n 1930 the number of c h i l d r e n I n the U n i t e d S t a t e s under 10 y e a r s o f age was 24,051,999. In 1935 i t was e s t i m a t e d a t 22,340,000i 5 The d e c r e a s e i n t h e t o t a l e l e m e n t a r y s o h o o l enrolment i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s from 1930 t o 1932 was 0.7 p e r c e n t ; from 1932 t o 1 9 3 4 , 1.8 p e r c e n t ; f rom 1934 t o 1936, 1.8 p e r cent and from 1930 t o 1936, 4.2 p e r c e n t . By 1936 t h e t o t a l element-a r y and s econdary enrolment showed a decrease of 67,000 below the peak of 1 9 3 5 . ^ A f a c t o r a c c o u n t i n g i n p a r t f o r t h e i n c r e a s e d demand f o r t e a c h e r s has been the g r e a t e r p e r c e n t a g e of t h e c h i l d r e n a t t e n d i n g s c h o o l i n r e c e n t y e a r s . The g r e a t e s t i n c r e a s e has o c c u r r e d f o r t h e age group 10-19 y e a r s . T a b l e V I I I g i v e s t h e d a t a f o r Canada f o r t h e l a s t t h r e e census y e a r s . TABLE V I I I P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of S c h o o l Attendance o f P o p u l a t i o n 5 t o 19 y e a r s of Age I n c l u s i v e , f o r Canada. Age-group 1911 1921 1931 5-9 y e a r s at s c h o o l 58.69$ 65.47$ 68.61$ hot a t s c h o o l 41.31 34.53 31.39 10-19 y r s . at s c h o o l 49.58 58.79 63.98 not a t s c h o o l 50.42 41.21 36.02 5-19 y r s . a t s c h o o l 52.88 61.32 65.59 not a t s c h o o l 47.12 38.67 34.41 14. Roy H e l t o n , " O l d People:A R i s i n g N a t i o n a l Problem," Reader's D i g e s t XXXV, No..211, (November 1939, ).p.30. 15.. ''A c o u n t i n g of Heads . "Vancouver D a i l y Prov. Van.Oct .4/39. 16. P o p u l a t i o n Trends and T h e i r E d u c a t i o n a l I m p T i c a t i o n s , pp.53-34. Washington: N a t i o n E d u c a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n , X V I N o . l 17. Canada Ye a r Book, o p . c i t . p.162. tJamaary_J !^38 J L. F o r B r i t i s h Columbia a l o n e , i n 1931, the p ercentage of the p o p u l a t i o n 5-19 y e a r s of age i n c l u s i v e i n attendance at s c h o o l was a p p r o x i m a t e l y 62.8 p e r c e n t , an amount somewhat s m a l l e r t h a n f o r the whole of Canada. Tha* f a c t t h a t the h i g h s c h o o l enrolment i n t h i s p r o v i n c e has gone up f o r the p e r i o d 1931-38 from 16,197 t o 22,582 a l t h o u g h t h e elementary s c h o o l f i g u r e s are almost i d e n t i c a l , (97,717 t o 97,778) would support such a c o n c l u s i o n . ( T a b l e TV) Having c o n s i d e r e d the changes i n s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n from the p o i n t s of v i e w of t o t a l growth, elementary and h i g h s c h o o l enrolment, attendance by key g r a d e s , b i r t h r a t e and age d i s -t r i b u t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n i t i s now time t o f o r m u l a t e some c o n c l u s i o n s . I t m a t t e r s not from which angle the problem i s a t t a c k e d t h e r e s u l t s a l l seem t o add up t o t h e same t h i n g , — the numbers of c h i l d r e n have a l r e a d y begun t o d e c r e a s e . While the e f f e c t as y e t has been s l i g h t and p r o b a b l y w i l l be so f o r some y e a r s t o come, u n l e s s t h e t r e n d i s r e v e r s e d , the s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n must u l t i m a t e l y b e g i n a l o n g d e c l i n e . T h i s i s an i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n when p r e p a r i n g l o n g - t e r m p l a n s . In the f u t u r e we may d e s i r e an improvement i n t h e q u a l i t y of a l l t h i n g s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e e d u c a t i o n a l system of B r i t i s h Columbia but we s h a l l n ot need i n t h e aggregate any g r e a t e r q u a n t i t y t h a n we have at p r e s e n t . The degree of u r b a n i z a t i o n a f f e c t s t h e demand f o r t e a c h -e r s because i t a l t e r s the r a t i o of p u p i l s t o t e a c h e r s . R u r a l s c h o o l s have a s m a l l e r r a t i o t h a n d t y s c h o o l s . Any t r e n d 71 towards t h e - c i t y , therefor© i n c r e a s e s the average p u p i l t o t e a c h e r r a t i o . The i n c r e a s e i n u r b a n i z a t i o n of B r i t i s h Columbia i s i n d i c a t e d by T able I X . I t has c o n t i n u e d unabated except f o r the decade c e n t e r i n g around 1921 when the e x p a n s i o n of a g r i -c u l t u r e i n t h e Okanagan and F r a s e r V a l l e y s t e m p o r a r i l y r e v e r s -ed t h e t r e n d . T a b l e IX g i v e s the d a t a f o r t h e census y e a r s from 1891 t o 1931 i n c l u s i v e f o r B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t B r i t i s h Columbia has l e a d t h e movement c i t y w a r d s e x c e p t , a g a i n , f o r 1921. TABLE IX Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n of R u r a l and Urban P o p u l a t i o n by /g Decades, 1891-1931, f o r B r i t i s h Columbia and Canada. 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 B. C. R u r a l Urban 62.08$ 37.92 49.52$ 50.48 48.10$ 51.90 52.81$ 47.19 43.14$ 56.82 Canada R u r a l Urban 68.20 31.80 62.50 37.50 54.58 45.42 50.48 49.52 46.30 53.70 S c h o o l i n B r i t i s h Columbia a r e d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e c l a s s e s -- c i t y , m u n i c i p a l and r u r a l . T h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s based on the type of l o c a l government and i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o the d e n s i t y of p o p u l a t i o n . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , r u r a l d i s t r i c t s a r e s p a r s e l y p o p u l a t e d , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , f a i r l y w e l l - p o p u l a t e d f a r m i n g areas and c i t i e s , compact communities of 1000 p o p u l a -t i o n or more. While t h e r e e x i s t c e r t a i n e x c e p t i o n s t o these r u l e s and c o n s i d e r a b l e o v e r l a p p i n g , s t i l l t h e d i v i s i o n s cannot 18. I b i d . , p.150 72 b© much m o r e ; p r e c i s e l y s t a t e d u n l e s s the p r o v i n c e were r e -c l a s s i f i e d on a b a s i s of p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y o n l y . I t i s r a t h e r amazing t o f i n d t h a t t h e r a t i o of c h i l d r e n i n each c a t e g o r y t o the t o t a l number of c h i l d r e n has changed but v e r y l i t t l e i n the l a s t 26 y e a r s . Whereas the p r o p o r t i o n of t h e urban p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e from 51.90 p e r cent t o 56.82 p e r cent from 1911 t o 1931, the p r o p o r t i o n of the s c h o o l enrolment i n the c i t i e s dropped from 57.60 p e r cent t o 57.25 p e r cent from 1913 t o 1939. Two reasons seem p o s s i b l e f o r t h i s unexpect-ed d i f f e r e n c e — e i t h e r the t r e n d t o t h e c i t i e s s u f f e r e d a r e v e r s a l a f t e r 1931, or t h e r e i s a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of c h i l d r e n t o a d u l t s i n t h e c o u n t r y , now t h a n f o r m e r l y . T a b l e X p i c k s out f o u r e v e n l y - s p a c e d i n t e r v a l s (except the f i r s t ) t o show t h e a c t u a l numbers and per c e n t a g e of t o t a l attendance i n each c l a s s of s c h o o l . One r e m a i n i n g f a c t a r i s e s from an e x a m i n a t i o n of the t a b l e . While the s c h o o l enrolment advanced by 1000 i n t h e l a s t t e n years f o r a l l c i t y s c h o o l s , r u r a l and m u n i c i p a l s c h o o l s have r e g i s t e r e d g a i n s of 5000 each. In o t h e r words, p r a c t i c a l l y the e n t i r e i n c r e a s e i n s c h o o l attendance i n the l a s t t e n y e a r s has o c c u r r e d i n o t h e r than urban a r e a s . On t h e b a s i s of t o t a l enrolment, d u r i n g the decade from 1900 t o 1910 t h e r a t i o of p u p i l s t o t e a c h e r dropped from a p p r o x i m a t e l y 42 t o 38. The next decade w i t n e s s e d an even l a r g e r decrease f r o m 38 t o 51 w h i l e f o r the l a s t two decades i t has hovered between 29 and 30. As t h e r e are many s m a l l s i n g l e - r o o m s c h o o l s of from 10 t o 30 p u p i l s i t i s obvious t h a t t h e r e -are many c l a s s e s i n the c i t i e s c o n s i d e r a b l y above the average. TABLE X D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S c h o o l Enrolment I n B r i t i s h Columbia by C l a s s e s f o r Pour D i f f e r e n t Years i n A c t u a l Numbers and by Percentage o f T o t a l . Year R u r a l M u n i c i p a l C i t y T o t a l 1912-13 Number Percentage 10,853 18.84 13,573 23.56 33,182 57.60 57,608 100 1918-19 Number Percentage 13,241 18.39 17,869 24.86 40,896 56.77 72,006 100 1928-29 Number Percentage 20,777 18.96 20,535 18.74 68,246 62.29 109,558 100 1938-39 Number Percentage 25,306 20.92 25,860 21.39 69,219 57.25 120,934 100 T a b l e X I shows t h e number of t e a c h e r s , enrolment and r a t i o of p u p i l s t o t e a c h e r i n the v a r i o u s c l a s s e s of s c h o o l s f o r the y e a r 1937-38. I t i s apparent f r o m t h i s t a b l e t h a t an i n c r e a s e of s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n i n r u r a l d i s t r i c t s w i t h a s m a l l r a t i o of o n l y 21 p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r s produces a g r e a t e r p r o -p o r t i o n a t e demand f o r new t e a c h e r s than does t h e same i n c r e a s e i n c i t i e s , one hundred a d d i t i o n a l p u p i l s i n r u r a l areas would r e q u i r e f i v e new t e a c h e r s but i n c i t i e s would g i v e employ-ment t o b u t t h r e e . Any pronounced change i n t h i s f a c t o r would, of c o u r s e , a f f e c t t h e demand f o r t e a c h r e r s . I n B r i t i s h Columbia however, •29.Annual Reports o f the P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h Columbia".""op. c i t . 20. i b i d T 74 i t i s f a i r l y .well s t a n d a r d i z e d by the r e g u l a t i o n s of the C o u n c i l of P u b l i c I n s t r u c t i o n and deserves but l i t t l e f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . The P r o v i n c i a l Government w i l l o n l y pay g r a n t s towards s a l a r i e s of a c e r t a i n maximum number of t e a c h e r s , t h i s maximum t o be determined by t h e s c h o o l enrolment. I n elementary s c h o o l t h i s number i s based on 40 p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r . Any f r a c t i o n o f 40 i s a c c e p t e d as i f i t were 40, so t h a t few schools a c t u a l l y have a r a t i o t h i s h i g h . S i m i l a r l y i n h i g h s c h o o l s the number of t e a c h e r s i s c a l c u l a t e d on a b a s i s of 30 p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r s . These r e g u l a t i o n s have tended t o m a i n t a i n r e a s o n a b l e u n i f o r m i t y and c o n s t a n c y and w h i l e c e r t a i n s c h o o l s or c l a s s e s of s c h o o l s may d e v i a t e c o n s i d e r a b l y from the normal because t h e i r enrolments a re d e c i d e d l y under or j u s t s l i g h t l y over 40 p u p i l s , s t i l l t a k i n g the p r o v i n c e as a whole t h e r e has been l i t t l e change i n t h e l a s t t w enty y e a r s . . TABLE X I (a) D i s t r i b u t i o n of Teachers and P u p i l s A c c o r d i n g t o the D i f f e r e n t C l a s s e s o f Schools and D i s t r i c t s , 1937-38. S c h o o l s No. of Grade Teachers No. of S p e c i a l I n s t r u c t o r s T o t a l High s c h o o l s ( c i t i e s ) 463 113 576 H i g h Schools ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s )I29 30 159 H i g h Sch o o l s ( r u r a l d i s t r i c t s ) 8 4 13 97 S u p e r i o r S c h o o l s ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 22 22 S u p e r i o r S c h o o l s ( r u r a l d i s t r i c t s ) 118 118 J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s ( c i t i e s ) 224 67 291 21. Manual of the S c h o o l Law f o r B r i t i s h Columbia, V i c t o r i a , S e c t i o n 145, (l9~3T"i 22. Annual Reports of P u b l i c S c h o o l s of B r i t i s h Columbia, op. o l t . , y0\. LXW/, /:>•*• 75 Table X I (a*) ^continued. S c h o o l s No.of Grade Teachers No. o f S p e c i a l I n s t r u c t o r s T o t a l J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 28 7 35 J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s ( r u r a l ) 20 5 25 Elem e n t a r y s c h o o l s ( c i t i e s ] 1,171 178 1289 Elementary s c h o o l s ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 535 23 558 Elem e n t a r y s c h o o l s ( r u r a l d i s t r i c t s ) 900 2 902-Community s c h o o l s 20 20 T o t a l s 3.714 378 4,092 TABLE X I (b) School s No. of Average Average P u p i l s Enrolment Enrolment E n r o l l e d p e r Grade Teacher f o r A l l Teachers H i g h s c h o o l s ( c i t i e s ) 16,420 35 28 Hi g h s c h o o l s ( d i s t r i c t 27 m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 4,380 34 High s c h o o l s ( r u r a l d i s t r i c t s ) 1,782 21 18 S u p e r i o r s c h o o l s ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 878 40 40 S u p e r i o r s c h o o l s ( r u r a l 27 d i s t r i c t s ) 3,137 s)8,437 27 J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s ( c i t i e 38 29 J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s 30 ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 1,051 38 J u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s ( r u r a l ) 676 34 27 Elementary s c h o o l s ( c i t i e s )44,392 38 34 Ele m e n t a r y s c h o o l s 35 ( d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) 19,610 36 El e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s 21 21 ( r u r a l d i s t r i c t s ) 19,075 Community s c h o o l s 522 26 26 T o t a l s 120.360 32 29 Two t h i n g s s t a n d out i n t h i s t a b l e ; t h e heavy t e a c h i n g l o a d i n s u p e r i o r s c h o o l s and t h e l i g h t one i n r u r a l s c h o o l s , 76 b o t h e l e m e n t a r y and h i g h . I t t a k e s 902 t e a c h e r s t o i n s t r u c t 19,075 p u p i l s i n r u r a l e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s but o n l y 558 t o t e a c h 19,610 c h i l d r e n i n m u n i c i p a l s c h o o l s , a d i f f e r e n c e of 344 t e a c h e r s f o r appromimately the same number of p u p i l s . So f a r t h i s c h a p t e r has been an attempt t o asses s the t o t a l demand f o r t e a c h e r s b o t h as t o i t s e x t e n t i n the p a s t and as t o i t s p r o b a b l e course I n the f u t u r e . As many f a c t o r s as p o s s i b l e have been examined f o r c l u e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y a v e r y i m p o r t a n t one has t o be pa s s e d by w i t h a b r i e f r e f e r e n c e because of the l a c k of d a t a ; t h a t i s i m m i g r a t i o n . Vancouver, f o r t he l a s t t h r e e o r f o u r y e a r s , i n r e g i s t e r i n g new p u p i l s has made a r e c o r d of g e o g r a p h i c a l o r i g i n s and has d i s c o v e r e d t h a t about 2000 p u p i l s a n n u a l l y who are not n a t i v e t o Van-couver are e n r o l l e d f o r the f i r s t t i m e ; o f t h e s e b e t t e r than 900 are from o t h e r p a r t s of B r i t i s h Columbia. Thus about 1100 out of the c i t y ' s 40,000 p u p i l s a re Immigrants t o t h e p r o v i n c e . I f Vancouver's e x p e r i e n c e i s any c r i t e r i o n , somewhere between two and t h r e e p e r c e n t of t h e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n of B r i t i s h Columbia a n n u a l l y comes from o u t s i d e the p r o v i n c i a l b o r d e r s . L a c k i n g more e x p l i c i t i n f o r m a t i o n , the q u e s t i o n w i l l have t o remain u n s o l v e d f o r t h e time b e i n g . B e f o r e t h i s s e c t i o n i s brought t o a c l o s e i t might be worth w h i l e t o make one o r two q u o t a t i o n s f rom a f i n a n c i l a j o u r n a l . 2 3 . I b i d V o l . L X V I I I , pp. 56-57 77 "No q u e s t i o n about i t , t he American p o p u l a t i o n i s grow-i n g older--much t o t h e dismay of the s t a t i s t i c i a n s . C h i l d r e n are g e t t i n g s c a r c e r , w h i l e the aged m u l t i p l y . " . " I n 1932 t h e r e were more c h i l d r e n between the ages of 7 and 11 i n t h i s c o u n t r y (U.S.A.) tha n t h e r e ever had been b e f o r e - - o r l i k e l y e v e r w i l l be a g a i n . In a few years t h e r e w i l l be a s i m i l a r peak of persons between t h e ages of 20 and 24 Thus- the p r o p o r t i o n of persons of v a r i o u s ages i n our po p u l a -t i o n i s c o n s t a n t l y c h a n g i n g , t o t h e d e t r i m e n t of some i n -d u s t r i e s and t h e good f o r t u n e of o t h e r s . " And each age-group, except t h e v e r y h i g h e s t , w i l l e v e n t u a l l y r e a c h a c r e s t , beyond which i t w i l l d e c l i n e . " "We have a l r e a d y p a s s e d one such c r e s t - - t h a t of the p o p u l a t i o n of 7 t o 11 y e a r s t h a t took p l a c e back i n 1932 and by a s t r a n g e i r o n y t h a t y e a r began one of t h e b i g g e s t s p u r t s new s c h o o l c o n s t r u c t i o n ever had. And perhaps saw more g i r l s t r a i n i n g t o be t e a c h e r s t h a n we ever had b e f o r e i n our h i s t o r y . Somehow p e o p l e are t h a t way--in and out of W a l l S t r e e t — t h e y always want t o buy at t h e top of the boom." "The peak of the 20-24 age group i s s t i l l f i v e y ears ahead of us (1945). Those g i r l s w i l l f a c e a p a r t i c u l a r l y d i f f i c u l t t i m e . By t h e n , e v e r y one w i l l r e a l i z e t h a t s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n s a re d e c l i n i n g , and so t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n w i l l v i r t u a l l y be c l o s e d f o r t h a t crop of g i r l s . " ^ B. Number of S e p a r a t i o n s . While i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o know t h e t o t a l demand f o r t e a c h e r s and t o be c o g n i s a n t of t h e changes i t i s u n d e r g o i n g , i n o r d e r t o s e c u r e a l o n g v i e w , i t i s n e v e r t h e l e s s of more immediate co n c e r n t o know e x a c t l y how many new t e a c h e r s can be p l a c e d i n the e n s u i n g y e a r . T h i s a c t u a l demand hi n g e s almost e n t i r e l y on the number of v a c a n c i e s c r e a t e d d u r i n g the y e a r by t e a c h e r s l e a v i n g the p r o f e s s i o n . Teachers who t r a n s f e r f r om one s c h o o l or p o s i t i o n t o another do not c r e a t e a demand. T h i s s e c t i o n t h e r e f o r e c o n s i s t s of an i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the r a t e a t which t e a c h e r s withdraw from the p r o f e s s i o n . 24. F r e d H. S t e r n s , "New S i g n p o s t s f o r I n d u s t r y " . B a r r o n ' s , The N a t i o n a l F i n a n c i a l Weekly,,XX No. 9 (F e b r u a r y 26, 1940), p. 3. 78 As has -already been mentioned (page 9) i t has been d i f f i c u l t t o s e c u r e , except i n d i r e c t l y , any adequate r e c o r d s of the number of s e p a r a t i o n s p e r y e a r . Use i s here made of i n f o r m a t i o n r e p o r t e d by the Commissioner of t h e Teachers' P e n s i o n Fund. T a b l e X I I g i v e the number of c o n t r i b u t o r s , r e f u n d s and p e n s i o n s g r a n t e d p e r y e a r s i n c e the i n a p t i o n of the p e n s i o n ' s scheme. The number of s e p a r a t i o n s p e r y e a r i s thus e q u a l t o t h e r e f u n d s p l u s p e n s i o n s g r a n t e d . C e r t a i n i n -a c c u r a c i e s are u n a v o i d a b l e . F i r s t , the pe n s i o n ' s year i s c a l c u l a t e d as from A p r i l 1 s t , t o t h e f o l l o w i n g March 3 1 s t . , and as the. s c h o o l year runs from J u l y 1st., t o June 3 0 t h . the two i n t e r v a l s of time are not c o n c u r r e n t . S i n c e , however they are e q u a l p e r i o d s o f time no s e r i o u s e r r o r s can r e s u l t . Second t h e r e has a r i s e n ( f i r s t r e p o r t e d i n 1933-34) a f a i r l y l a r g e number of n o n - a c t i v e accounts of t e a c h e r s who are t e m p o r a r i l y unemployed or who have permanently l e f t t he t e a c h i n g p r o -f e s s i o n . T h i s means of cour s e t h a t t h e number of refu n d s p l u s p e n s i o n s i s l e s s t h a n the a c t u a l number of s e p a r a t i o n s . As the number of n o n - a c t i v e accounts has remained i n the n e i g h -borhood of 300 s i n c e 1933-34, the number of r e f u n d s s i n c e t h a t d a t e , however, r e p r e s e n t a p p r o x i m a t e l y the c o r r e c t number of w i t h d r a w a l s . The v a l u e s b e f o r e t h a t are t h e r e f o r e o b v i o u s l y t o o low. And, t h i r d , t h e r e must be a few t e a c h e r s who h a v i n g t a u g h t one y e a r , f a i l t o r e a c h t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d of e f f i c i e n c y and so withdraw. These are not e n t i t l e d t o any r e f u n d and c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e r e I s no r e c o r d of t h e i r removal. P r o b a b l y some of the n o n - a c t i v e accounts are a t t r i b u t a b l e t o them. I t had been o r i g i n a l l y e x p e c t ed t h a t at l e a s t the number of t e a c h e r s l e a v i n g each y e a r c o u l d be g i v e n w i t h some p r e -c i s i o n . T h i s hope has not been r e a l i z e d - - t h e b e s t t h a t can be done at t h i s time i s t o a r r i v e at an a p p r o x i m a t i o n . Neverthe-l e s s some s a t i s f a c t i o n i s f e l t i n t h a t e s s e n t i a l l y the same r e s u l t s a re s e c u r e d by two a d d i t i o n a l d i f f e r e n t methods, page 122and 131 In T able X I I i t w i l l be noted t h a t the f i r s t y e a r must be r u l e d out as o b v i o u s l y i n c o m p l e t e . The number of r e f u n d s g r a n t e d i n t h e l a s t n i n e y e a r s has t o t a l l e d 2,144, and t h e number of p e n s i o n s 299. S i n c e the n o n - a c t i v e account are not c u m u l a t i v e t h e number of s e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e same p e r i o d i s a p p a r e n t l y 2,445 p l u s 312 a grand t o t a l of 2755--an average of 306 p e r y e a r . One a b a s i s of 4000 t e a c h e r s t h i s r e p r e s e n t s 7s p e r c e n t . The number o f t e a c h e r s l e a v i n g on p e n s i o n has been r e -markably c o n s t a n t u n t i l the l a s t t h r e e y e a r s . Over the n i n e year p e r i o d i t has averaged 34 p e r y e a r . I t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t the next f i v e or s i x ye a r s w i l l see 300 l e a v e on retirement,° i S I f t h a t i s so t h e r a t e must jump v e r y s h a r p l y t o an average of 50 o r 60 p e r y e a r . I t s h o u l d be r e l a t i v e l y easy t o know how many w i l l be a t r e t i r e m e n t age f i v e o r s i x y e a r s hence by c o n s u l t i n g the a c t u a l r e c o r d s . The number w i t h d r a w i n g from the p r o f e s s i o n f o r reasons o t h e r t h a n r e t i r e m e n t has f l u c t u a t e d c o n s i d e r a b l y - y e a r by year.. 25. "Teachers P l a n Pensions Law", Vancouver D a l l y Prov. (September 26, 1939.) 80 - i TABLE X I I Number of C o n t r i b u t o r s , Refunds and Pensions Granted, Non-A c t i v e Accounts and S e p a r a t i o n s by Y e a r s , from A p r i l 1 s t , 1929 t o March 31 s t , 1939 Year Number o f C o n t r i b u t o r s Number of Refunds Granted Number of Pensions Granted Number of Sep-a r a t i o n s Non-A c t i v e A c c t s . 1929-30 3664 19 9 28 1930-31 3922 200 38 238 1931-32 4031 200 50 230 1932-33 3907 182 37 219 1933-34 3845 246 34 280 318 1934-35 3917 282 35 317 301 1935-36 3947 235 34 269 318 1936-37 4004 246 44 290 339 1937-38 4074 278 -25 303 365 1938-39 4129 275 22 297 312 T o t a l s f o r 1930-39 i n c l u s i v e 12144 299 2443 Because so many (over 300) do not secure t h e i r r e f u n d s w i t h i n a r e a s o n a b l e time i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o gauge the amount of t h e f l u c t u a t i o n . The maximum v a r i a t i o n i s about 40, (235-275; T a b l e X I I . ) . I n c o n c l u d i n g t h i s s e c t i o n i t can be s t a t e d t h a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y 300 v a c a n c i e s a r i s e each y e a r . To determine the number of new t e a c h e r s t h a t must be p r e p a r e d i t i s o n l y nec-e s s a r y t o add t o or s u b t r a c t f r o m the 300, any p o s i t i o n s c r e a t e d o r d e s t r o y e d by changes i n the enrolment. T h i s w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e nex t s e c t i o n . 26. Tenth Annual R e p o r t , Teachers' Pensions A c t , p. 7. V i c t o r i a , (1939) C. Apparent Demand f o r New Teachers--Expansion or C o n t r a c t i o n P l u s S e p a r a t i o n s . T a b l e X I I I shows the i n c r e a s e or decrease i n the number of t e a c h e r s employed f o r each y e a r compared t o the p r e c e d i n g y e a r . I t i s of i n t e r e s t t o note t h a t w h i l e the number of t e a c h e r s i n c r e a s e by 102 i n t h e l a s t y e a r the number of p u p i l s o n l y i n c r e a s e d by 574. O b v i o u s l y the expanded demand was but s l i g h t l y due t o a change I n the enrolment. Three hundred and f o r t y new p o s i t i o n s have been produced i n the l a s t n i n e y e a r s because of the i n c r e a s e d demand, which i s an average of 38 p e r y e a r . I t seems e x t r e m e l y d o u b t f u l wheth-e r t h i s e x p a n s i o n can c o n t i n u e much f u r t h e r i n t h e l i g h t of the d e c l i n i n g numbers of c h i l d r e n . The p a s t n i n e y e a r s have w i t n e s s e d as a r e s u l t of a l l f a c t o r s an average y e a r l y demand f o r 344 t e a c h e r s which i s about 8ijr p e r cent of t h e t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l . As t h i s has a t no time a p p a r e n t l y exceeded 10 p e r cent i t must not have dropped much below 7 p e r cent i n any p a r t i c u l a r y e a r . I t would be f o o l i s h t o suggest t h a t the needs of the next decade w i l l be t h e same as those of t h a t j u s t p a s t -o n l y f u r t h e r and c o n t i n u e d s t u d y would r e v e a l i t s p r o b a b l e c o u r s e . N e v e r t h l e s s t h e dbhances t h a t the f u t u r e demand w i l l more n e a r l y resemble t h e p a s t a re g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t i t w i l l e o rrespons t o any. random guess. TABLE X I I I D i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e Demand f o r New Teachers C r e a t e d by Expa n s i o n or C o n t r a c t i o n , Withdrawals and R e t i r e m e n t s , 1929-1939 I n c l u s i v e . *1 I n c r e a s e t Year or Decrease Withdrawals R e t i r e m e n t s Demand 1929-30 70 19 9 98 1930-31 94 200 38 332 1931-32 11 200 30 241 1932-33 -47 182 37 172 1933-34 -39 246 34 241 1934-35 .69 282 35 386 1935-36 14 235 34 283 1936-37 69 246 44 359 1937-38 67 278 25 370 1938-39 102 275 22 399 2 7 . * I b i d . b A n n u a l Reports of P u b l i c S c h o o l s of B r i t i s h Columbia, op. c i t . 83 CHAPTER V F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g t h e Sup p l y of Teachers. Having d i s c u s s e d at some l e n g t h the problem of demand f o r new t e a c h e r s i t i s now n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r c e r t a i n of the f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the s u p p l y . I n t h i s t h e r e appear t o be two prime c o n s i d e r a t i o n s — t h e r e l a t i v e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of t e a c h i n g as a l i f e ' s work and the o b s t a c l e s i n the way of e n t e r i n g i t . A. R e l a t i v e A t t r a c t i v e n e s s of the T e a c h i n g P r o f e s s i o n . More i s b e i n g done t o d a y t h a n e v e r b e f o r e t o d i r e c t young p e o p l e i n t o p r o m i s i n g channels of a c t i v i t y . G r e a t e r importance i s b e i n g a t t a c h e d t o the s u i t a b i l i t y of the young person f o r the type of work he has e l e c t e d t o f o l l o w . I n s p i t e of t h e f a c t t h a t s e l e c t i n g a v o c a t i o n has become more d e l i b e r a t e and i n t e l l i g e n t i t i s s t i l l t r u e t h a t most young peopl e choose what appears t o be t h e b e s t o c c u p a t i o n w i t h i n t h e i r r e a c h . O p p o r t u n i t i e s i n o t h e r f i e l d s of work are r e f l e c t e d i n the number of those who d e c i d e t o take up t e a c h i n g . When o t h e r t r a d e s and p r o f e s s i o n s seem pr o s p e r o u s and p r o g r e s s i v e o n l y t h o s e who i n s t i n c t i v e l y l i k e t o t e a c h o r those who are unable t o compete s u c c e s s f u l l y f o r the more d e s i r a b l e o c c u p a t i o n s e l e c t t o t a k e a cou r s e i n t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g , but when t h e r e i s a p e r i o d o f economic d i f f i c u l t i e s many c a p a b l e s t u d e n t s t u r n t o the apparent s e c u r i t y and r e l a t i v e p r o s p e r i t y of the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n . Jobs compete f o r workers almost as r u t h l e s s l y as workers f o r j o b s . 84 One of the c o n s i d e r a t i o n s I n v o l v e d i n c h o o s i n g an o c c u p a t i o n b r i n g s around the problem of permanency,, C e r t a i n types of work are spasmodic. C i v i l e n g i n e e r i n g s u f f e r s from l a c k of co n t i n u o u s employment; b r i d g e and r o a d - b u i l d i n g and o t h e r c o n s t r u c t i o n jobs o c c u r r i n g i n t e r m i t t e n t l y . Teaching by c o n t r a s t g i v e s s t e a d y employment. T e a c h i n g has s u f f e r e d i n t h e p a s t and s t i l l does, i n c e r t a i n s e c t i o n s of t h e c o u n t r y because of the p e c u l i a r r e -l a t i o n s e x i s t i n g between t e a c h e r s and the communities i n which t h e y l i v e . Teachers f i n d themselves s a d d l e d w i t h a m u l t i p l i c -i t y of m a s t e r s - - i n s p e c t o r s , s c h o o l boards and p a r e n t s . The n e c e s s i t y of s a t i s f y i n g a l l f r e q u e n t l y r e s u l t s i n p l e a s i n g none. As a consequence t e a c h e r s have been s u b j e c t e d t o a form of t y r a n n y not common t o o t h e r t r a d e s and p r o f e s s i o n s . I n B r i t i s h Columbia t h i s has been r e c t i f i e d by r e g u l a t i o n s e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e s e c u r i t y of t e n u r e t o t e a c h e r s . They can o n l y be d i s m i s s e d now f o r v a l i d reasons and an o u t s i d e t r i -b u n a l passes upon t h e v a l i d i t y of the s e r e a s o n s . S a l a r i e s a l s o come i n f o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . The f i n a n c i a l rewards from an o c c u p a t i o n must have some r e l a t i o n b o t h t o the investment i n v o l v e d i n e q u i p p i n g one's s e l f and a l s o t o the r e t u r n s t h a t c o u l d be s e c u r e d by e q u a l e f f o r t and a b i l i t y i n o t h e r v o c a t i o n s . While s a l a r i e s i n B r i t i s h Columbia have dropped c o n s i d e r a b l y s i n c e 1929 p a r t i c u l a r l y I n c e r t a i n s e c t i o n s of t h e p r o v i n c e i t i s d o u b t f u l whether the g e n e r a l decrease has been g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t s u f f e r e d by most o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n s . However t h e rem u n e r a t i o n s cannot f a l l below an a c c e p t e d l e v e l f o r any l e n g t h of time w i t h o u t s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t -i n g the morale of a c t i v e t e a c h e r s and r e d u c i n g b o t h the numbers and q u a l i t y of t h e p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s . • A l t h o u g h t h e income d e r i v e d from a p a r t i c u l a r v o c a t i o n i s of r e a l importance i t i s not t h e o n l y c o n s i d e r a t i o n . S o c i a l p r e s t i g e i s almost e q u a l l y p o t e n t i n a t t r a c t i n g d e s i r a b l e r e c r u i t s . Any o c c u p a t i o n t h a t i s h e l d i n h i g h esteem by t h e , p u b l i c g e n e r a l l y has an e x t r a o r d i n a r y power of a t t r a c t i o n . The s t a t u s of t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n has undoubtedly improv-ed s i n c e the days of t h e i t i n e r a n t t e a c h e r . The f a c t , how-e v e r , t h a t t e a c h e r s a re p a i d f rom t h e p u b l i c funds s u b j e c t s them t o the c r i t i c a l eye of the p u b l i c . Furthermore t h e r e s u l t s of t h e i r s e r v i c e s are somewhat I n t a n g i b l e and t h e r e -f o r e many u n t h i n k i n g p e o p l e conclude t h a t t h e y c o n t r i b u t e l i t t l e t o t h e common w e a l . These c o n d i t i o n s are more n o t i c e -a b l e i n s m a l l e r communities. F o r the s e reasons t e a c h e r s i n some communities do n o t r e c e i v e t h e a p p r o b a t i o n and a p p r e c i a t i o n t o which t h e y are e n t i t l e d . Once a g a i n B r i t i s h Columbia has w i t n e s s e d a g r e a t e r advance t h a n most o f t h e p r o v i n c e s i n t h i s r e s p e c t . A s t r o n g and a c t i v e teachers.' o r g a n i z a t i o n , h i g h e r p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a n d a r d s , g r e a t e r r i g h t s f o r t e a c h e r s , a l l seem t o be im-p r o v i n g t h e p u b l i c r e s p e c t f o r t e a c h e r s as a c l a s s . Much has been a c c o m p l i s h e d i n t h i s p r o v i n c e and elsewhere t o l a y the ghost of the o l d pedagogne by the h e e l s but more must be done b e f o r e t h e i d e a l atmosphere w i l l have been a t t a i n e d . While no one wants, n o r would i t be s a l u t o r y t o s e c u r e , 86 f a w n i n g a d u l a t i o n ; a s i n c e r e a p p r e c i a t i o n of t e a c h i n g and t e a c h e r s i s n e c e s s a r y i f the b e s t t a l e n t i s t o be drawn i n t o the p r o f e s s i o n . Another i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n I s t h e r e l a t i o n between the i n i t i a l and f i n a l p o s i t i o n s one may occupy i n a g i v e n p r o f e s s i o n . What hope i s t h e r e f o r advancement and on what b a s i s i s t h i s p r o m o t i o n c a r r i e d out? To p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s i t i s obvious t h a t w h i l e some t e a c h e r s do from time t o time advance t o b e t t e r p o s i t i o n s as o p p o r t u n i t i e s a f f o r d , i t I s a haphazard and u n c e r t a i n p r o c e s s and i n some cases u n r e l a t e d e i t h e r t o a b i l i t y or y e a r s of s e r v i c e but due s o l e l y t o f o r t u i t o u s c i r c u m s t a n c e s . I t would seem t h a t the v a l u e s of t e a c h i n g as an o c c u p a t i o n would be g r e a t l y 'enhanced i s some scheme of promotions on a p r o v i n c e - w i d e b a s i s was e s t a b l i s h e d . Young t e a c h e r s c o u l d then l o o k f o r w a r d w i t h a r e a s o n a b l e degree of c e r t a i n i t y t o a day when t h e y might advance t o more imp o r t a n t p o s i t i o n s and be c o n t e n t t o know t h a t i f t h e y are g i v i n g s a t i s f a c t o r y s e r v i c e t h e y have but t o await t h e i r t u r n . Such a p l a n would i n v o l v e , however, a change i n the p r e s e n t s e t - u p . The c o n t r o l of t h e t e a c h i n g body, now d i v i d e d among a l a r g e number of semi-autonomous g o v e r n i n g b o d i e s , would have t o be c o m p l e t e l y c e n t r a l i z e d . No f a c t o r can be s i n g l e d out as the a l l - i m p o r t a n t one i n c h o o s i n g a v o c a t i o n , but as i n e v e r y t h i n g e l s e some attempt i s made t o secu r e t h e optimum r e s u l t - - t h e l a r g e s t income, the most p o p u l a r o c c u p a t i o n , the g r e a t e s t s e c u r i t y commensurate w i t h the d i f f i c u l t i e s i n v o l v e d i n g a i n i n g a d m i s s i o n . Each 87 p r o s p e c t i v e C a n d i d a t e has: t o e v a l u a t e t h e advantages and d i s -advantages i n terms of h i s own I d e a l s and a s p i r a t i o n s . The r e s u l t a n t of t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f one o c c u p a t i o n must com-pare f a v o r a b l y w i t h t h a t o f a l l o t h e r p o s s i b l e c h o i c e s t o s e c u r e r e c r u i t s . T e a c h i n g can o n l y draw t o i t s ranks t h e r e q u i r e d number and k i n d of new t e a c h e r s as l o n g as i t main-t a i n s a f a v o r a b l e b a l a n c e of good q u a l i t i e s not n e c e s s a r i l y a b s o l u t e but i n a l l events r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n s . B. Requirements of the T e a c h i n g P r o f e s s i o n . Having c o n s i d e r e d s u p p l y f r o m th e p o i n t of v i e w of d e s i r a b i l i t y of a p a r t i c u l a r v o c a t i o n i t i s now n e c e s s a r y t o examine i t from the o p p o s i t e s i d e - - t h e r equirements demanded by t h e v o c a t i o n . C e r t a i n academic and p r o f e s s i o n a l s t a n d a r d s must be a t t a i n e d by p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s . S a t i s f a c t o r y h e a l t h , good p h y s i c a l , mental and m o r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are n e c e s s a r y c o n c o m i t a n t s . A l l t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s a c t as a b a r r i e r t o any u n l i m i t e d numbers. I n B r i t i s h Columbia t h e r e has been, a l o n g w i t h p l a c e s e l s e w h e r e , a g r a d u a l but p e r s i s t e n t i n c r e a s e i n the standards s e t f o r a d m i s s i o n t o t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n . At one time I t was p o s s i b l e t o s e c u r e a T h i r d C l a s s t e a c h i n g c e r t i f i c a t e w i t h o n l y two y e a r s ' h i g h s c h o o l t r a i n i n g . T h i s was a b o l i s h e d i n 1922. U n t i l 1937 Second C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s were g r a n t e d t o t h o s e who had completed h i g h s c h o o l , and normal s c h o o l . Now the minimum academic t r a i n i n g i s S e n i o r M a t r i c u l a t i o n which e n t i t l e s one t o t r a i n f o r a F i r s t C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e ; lower c e r t i f i c a t e s b e i n g no l o n g e r i s s u e d . Because of the i n c r e a s e i n h i g h s c h o o l courses from t h r e e t o f o u r years the academic t r a i n i n g has thus expanded from t e n t o t h i r t e e n y ears s i n c e 1922. S i m i l a r l y t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g has been I n c r e a s e d by l e n g t h e n i n g t h e normal s c h o o l y e a r and by a d d i n g two compulsory summer seasons. C a r e f u l m e d i c a l e x a m i n a t i o n s , i n t e l l i g e n c e r t e s t s and c h a r a c t e r r a t i n g s have a l l i n c r e a s e d t h e power of s a l u t i o n by t h e t e a c h e r - t r a i n i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s . The r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s areon a p a r i n p o i n t of t i m e and s t a n d a r d s w i t h those of n e a r l y a l l the p r o f e s s i o n s except m e d i c i n e . A l l t h i s i n d i c a t e s t h e i n c r e a s i n g d i f f i c u l t i e s b e i n g p l a c e d i n the p a t h s of p o s s i b l e c a n d i d a t e s . S i n c e t h e r e are f ewer who can measure up t o t h e new r e q u i r e m e n t s the p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y has d e c r e a s e d . Any p r o g r e s s i v e s c h o o l system n a t u r a l l y t r i e s t o s e l e c t as . r i g o r o u s l y as p o s s i b l e always r a i s i n g the s t a n d a r d s as h i g h as p e r m i s s i b l e consonant w i t h an adequate s u p p l y . I n c o n c l u s i o n , the s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s i s r a t h e r n i c e l y governed by the b a l a n c e s t r u c k by c h e c k i n g a g a i n s t t h e r e -wards of t e a c h i n g t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s of e n t e r i n g i t . I f f o r example i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e n t e r some o t h e r v o c a t i o n w i t h no g r e a t e r e f f o r t and r e c e i v e more i n r e t u r n by so d o i n g , t h e n t e a c h i n g w i l l f a i l t o a t t r a c t a s a t i s f a c t o r y number and must e i t h e r l o w e r i t s s t a n d a r d o r i n c r e a s e i t advantages. 89 C e r t a i n i n v e s t i g a t o r s have come t o the c o n c l u s i o n ( s e e page 106) t h a t i n s t e a d of a s u r p l u s of t e a c h e r s i n the p a s t , i f adequate s t a n d a r d s had been m a i n t a i n e d t h e r e would a c t u a l l y have been a v e r y d e c i d e d s h o r t a g e . The next c h a p t e r ( V l ) w i l l d e a l w i t h a s u r v e y of the a c t u a l s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s as i t has e x i s t e d i n B r i t i s h Columbia f o r t h e l a s t seventeen y e a r s . 90 ' s CHAPTER V I A S t a t i s t i c a l E x a m i n a t i o n of the Supply of Teachers. A. The Number of T e a c h i n g C e r t i f i c a t e s I s s u e d . I t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o determine w i t h a b s o l u t e a c c u r a c y what the p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s a t any one time might be. To those newly graduated must be added any s u r p l u s from the p r e v i o u s y e a r o r two who have n o t i n the meantime become e s t a b l i s h e d i n some o t h e r v o c a t i o n or who though w o r k i n g are s t i l l d e s i r o u s o f t e a c h i n g , p l u s those who f o r v a r i o u s reasons may d e s i r e t o r e t u r n a f t e r a l a p s e of some y e a r s . N o t h i n g s h o r t o f a c a r e f u l e x a m i n a t i o n of a l l c e r t i f i c a t e s i n f o r c e , the e l i m i n a t i o n of the c e r t i f i c a t e s of tho s e at p r e s e n t t e a c h i n g o r o t h e r w i s e d e f i n i t e l y o c c u p i e d or dead and a can-vass of t h e r e m a i n i n g c e r t i f i c a t e h o l d e r s c o u l d determine w i t h p e r f e c t a c c u r a c y how many peopl e i n B r i t i s h Columbia might be c o n s i d e r e d . As t h i s i s q u i t e beyond t h e r e s o u r c e s of t h i s s t u d y , s u p p l y i s t a k e n t o be t h e number o f t e a c h e r s p r e p a r e d each y e a r i n r e l a t i o n t o the demand of t h a t y e a r . By t h i s method i t i s p o s s i b l e t o approximate t h e accumulated s u r p l u s a l t h o u g h a l l o w a n c e must be made f o r the f a c t t h a t a g i v e n s u r p l u s tends t o d i m i n i s h w i t h t i m e , due t o m a r r i a g e , t r a n s f e r t o o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n s and d e a t h . Only as y e a r l y s u r p l u s e s c o n t i n u e t o mount can t h e r e ever be a v e r y l a r g e accumulated s u r p l u s ; At p r e s e n t t h r e e i n s t i t u t i o n s g i v e f u t u r e t e a c h e r s the amount of p r o f e s s i o n a l t r a i n i n g r e q u i r e d by the C o u n c i l of 91 P u b l i c i n s t r u c t i o n . These are t h e P r o v i n c i a l Normal Schools at V i c t o r i a and Vancouver and the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. The normal s c h o o l s c o n f i n e themselves t o those whose academic s t a n d i n g o n l y p e r m i t s them t o t r y f o r t h e F i r s t , Second o r T h i r d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s ( s i n c e 1937 ex-c l u s i v e l y F i r s t C l a s s ) . The U n i v e r s i t y p r e p a r e s i t s graduates f o r t h e Academic c e r t i f i c a t e . At p r e s e n t o n l y t h o s e t e a c h e r s h o l d i n g an Academic c e r t i f i c a t e a r e p e r m i t t e d t o t e a c h i n h i g h s c h o o l s , w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of c e r t a i n S p e c i a l i s t s , b ut no such r e s t r i c t i o n s are i n f o r c e f o r elementary s c h o o l s . Consequently any s u r p l u s o f t e a c h e r s w i t h Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s C o n s t i t u t e a p o r t i o n of the s u p p l y f o r ele m e n t a r y s c h o o l s . T a b l e XIV g i v e s the number of s u c c e s s f u l c a n d i d a t e s by i n s t i t u t i o n s and sex f o r each y e a r s i n c e 1922. The t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g course a t the u n i v e r s i t y was not e s t a b l i s h e d tint 11 1923. F o r t h e l a s t t h r e e y e a r s Vancouver, i n r e p o r t i n g , has lumped the sexes t o g e t h e r so t h a t t h e v a l u e s a p p e a r i n g i n the t a b l e a r e e s t i m a t e s of t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f women and men. F i g u r e 4 shows g r a p h i c a l l y t h e same r e s u l t s except t h a t t h e t o t a l i s o m i t t e d . An e x a m i n a t i o n of F i g u r e 4 shows t h a t t h e number of women a t t e n d i n g t h e Normal Scho o l s has s u f f e r e d a more o r l e s s s t e a d y d e c l i n e w h i l e the number of men has been remar k a b l y u n i f o r m . By c o n t r a s t t h e enrolment a t the U n i v e r s i t y has f l u c t u a t e d v e r y l i t t l e I n t h e 16 y e a r s of i t s e x i s t e n c e and t h e r a t i o of women t o men has been almost c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h -out t h a t t i m e . 92 TABLE XIV. D i s t r i b u t i o n of C e r t i f i c a t e s I s s u e d Each Y e a r , by I n s t i t u t i o n s and Sex, 1922-39 I n c l u s i v e . Vancouver , V i c t o r i a , U n i v e r s i t y Y e a r Norma] Normal of B . C. T o t a l Women Men Women Men Women Men 1922-23 297 84 187 67 — #" 635 1923-24 277 56 225 40 35 16 649 1924-25 229 49 199 39 32 16 564 ' 1925-26 195 39 129 31 35 20 449 1926-27 144 26 100 24 36 28 358 1927-28 158 37 118 36 39 19 407 1928-29 134 22 108 29 45 16 354 1929-30 163 26 104 23 45 19 380 1930-31 175 52 97 49 49 21 443 1931-32 141 58 80 40 67 37 423 1932-33 155 56 '73 58 44 20 406 1933-34 122 52 66 56 38 21 335 1934-35 104 37 51 22 43 23 280 1935-36 123 52 4 1 * 46 28 34 26 309 1936-37 78 40 19 27 14 219 1937-38 57 27* 47 18 , 33 32 214 1938-39 • 77 32* 43 24 38 17 231 - ^ D i s t r i b u t i o n by sex e s t i m a t e d # Not i n o p e r a t i o n I f t h e s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s had c o n t i n u e d t o be produced at t h e r a t e o c c u r r i n g i n t h e y e a r s 1922-24 the 3000 t e a c h e r s of t h a t time c o u l d have been e n t i r e l y r e p l a c e d i n the v e r y s h o r t p e r i o d of f i v e y e a r s or t h e p r e s e n t number of 4000 t e a c h e r s i n about seven y e a r s . F o r the e i g h t - y e a r p e r i o d from 1925-33 the output of t e a c h e r s averaged about 400 p e r y e a r . 1. Annual Reports of P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h Columbian o p . b i t . 2. A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver. P r i v a t e L e t t e r , November 27, 1939. -J-) 2. Si 3o° -O 5 o o So 3oo - O 3.oO /5~~0 SO O Wo n e r y o f B C --- --• — - —f H e n , ' ' • loin 71 ci > * N ncoi H me) s. •) \ \ •\ \ \ M e -» ' * •< * •S -• f ? - 1 h Is. Years P i g . 4. D i s t r i b u t i o n of C e r t i f i c a t e s I s s u e d Each Y e a r by Sex a t the Three I n s t i t u t i o n s , 1922-39 I n c l u s i v e . 94 At t h a t rat©' a l l t he p r e s e n t t e a c h e r s c o u l d be r e p l a c e d i n from e i g h t t o t e n y e a r s . I n o t h e r words d u r i n g t h a t e i g h t - y e a r p e r i o d enough t e a c h e r s were p r e p a r e d t o r e p l a c e the e n t i r e t e a c h i n g body. However, 1936-39 has seen t h e numbers drop t o about 200 new t e a c h e r s p e r ye a r and at t h a t r a t e i t would t a k e 20 y e a r s . I n m e d i c i n e , by comparison the number of gradu-a t e s i n Canada eaoh y e a r i s s u f f i c i e n t t o r e p l a c e the 10,000 d o c t o r s of 1931 i n 20 t o 25 y e a r s . S i m i l a r l y i n d e n t i s t r y i t would r e q u i r e 40 t o 50 y e a r s , i n pharmacy 20 t o 25 y e a r s , and i n l aw about 35 years f o r the graduates t o r e p l a c e the p r e s e n t 3 members o f each p r o f e s s i o n . I n 1935 t h e median y e a r s of ex-p e r i e n c e f o r a l l c l a s s e s of t e a c h e r s i n B r i t i s h Columbia was a p p r o x i m a t e l y 10.5. T h e r e f o r e i t would seem n e c e s s a r y t o have s u f f i c i e n t new t e a c h e r s graduate each y e a r t o r e p l a c e the e n t i r e t e a c h i n g body i n something l i k e 10 t o 12 y e a r s . T h i s l a r g e r a t e of t u r n o v e r i s due almost e n t i r e l y t o t h e l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f women and i s a p p a r e n t l y one of the i n h e r e n t and d i s t i n c t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n . B. D i s t r i b u t i o n of New Teachers by Sex and C e r t i f i c a t e . As a l r e a d y i n d i c a t e d t h e r e has been a p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y g r e a t e r d e c rease i n t h e attendance of women than ofmen a t t h e normal s c h o o l s . T h i s combined w i t h the g r e a t e r r a t e o f t u r n -over of women t e a c h e r s has g r a d u a l l y I n c r e a s e d the p r o p o r t i o n of men i n the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n . 3. S u p p l y and Demand i n t h e P r o f e s s i o n s I n Canada, op. c i t . pp. 11-16 95 Except f o r two o c c a s i o n s t h e normal s c h o o l s have not r e p o r t e d t h e number of each c l a s s of c e r t i f i c a t e s i s s u e d . T h i r d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s were e l i m i n a t e d i n 1922 and Second C l a s s i n 1937. However d u r i n g t h a t i n t e r v a l (1922-37) b o t h F i r s t and Second C l a s s c a n d i d a t e s were p r e p a r e d . F o r the two y e a r s , 1927-29, V i c t o r i a Normal S c h o o l r e p o r t e d the d i s -1 t r i b u t i o n of c e r t i f i c a t e s as f o l l o w s : F i r s t C l a s s Second C l a s s Women Men Women , Men 1927- 28 55 20 63 16 1928- 39 58 17 50 12 I f t h o s e two ye a r s were i n any way t y p i c a l i t would appear t h a t the two c l a s s e s of c e r t i f i c a t e s were a p p r o x i m a t e l y e q u a l i n number. The marked r e d u c t i o n i n the number of teachers b e i n g p r e p a r e d i n the l a s t two or t h r e e y e a r s may thus be l a r g e l y due t o the e l i m i n a t i o n of Second C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s . F a r f rom b e i n g a b l e t o s e l e c t t h e b e s t s e n i o r m a t r i c u l a t i o n s t u d e n t s as p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s , the normal s c h o o l s have had t o accept t h o s e h a v i n g tons;(oro^twoour supplementals i n order t o m a i n t a i n any semblance of t h e i r former numbers. - 5 A p p a r e n t l y t h i s p r o v i n c e f a c e s the problem of s e c u r i n g 4. Annual Reports of P u b l i c S c h o o l s of B r i t i s h Columbia, op . c l t . 5. A p p l i c a n t s are a d m i t t e d i n a c e r t a i n o r d e r , U n i v e r s i t y graduates f i r s t , t h e n h o l d e r s of S e n i o r M a t r i c u l a t i o n , t h e n h o l d e r s of the e q u i v a l e n t o f S e n i o r M a t r i c u l a t i o n . I f t h e r e are s t i l l v a c a n c i e s when the above a p p l i c a n t s have been a c c e p t -ed c o n s i d e r a t i o n w i l l be g i v e n to. s t u d e n t s w i t h one or two s u p p l e m e n t a l . Number of students"" 194© w i t h supolementals i s 19. A ( P r i v a t e l e t t e r from t h e P r i n c i p a l of the Vancouver Normal, A p r i l 19, 1940.) 96 an adequate s u p p l y of new t e a c h e r s on t h e b a s i s of p r e s e n t q u a l i f i c a t i o n s and rewards. I t would seem t h a t u n l e s s t e a c h -i n g as a p r o f e s s i o n can be made more d e s i r a b l e and hence a t t r a c t more c a n d i d a t e s and u n l e s s the gap between demand and s u p p l y i s f u r t h e r reduced by i n c r e a s i n g the average l e n g t h of s e r v i c e t h e r e would c o n t i n u e t o be a sho r t a g e of new t e a c h e r s . The o n l y a l t e r n a t i v e i s t o lo w e r the s t a n d a r d s . There has been a marked i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n of Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s f r o m a p p r o x i m a t e l y 8 p e r cent of the t o t a l I n 1924 t o 24 p e r cent i n 1939. F u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n o f the changing p r o p o r t i o n s of sex and c e r t i f i c a t e s w i l l be postponed t i l l Chapter V I I . C. D i s t r i b u t i o n of Academic C e r t i f i c a t e s by Major S u b j e c t s . T a b l e XV shows t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e major s u b j e c t s r e q u i r e d f o r an Academic c e r t i f i c a t e . O r d i n a r i l y each student i s r e q u i r e d t o q u a l i f y i n two major s u b j e c t t a u g h t i n h i g h s c h o o l . O c c a s i o n a l l y some q u a l i f y i n t h r e e , hence t h e t o t a l number of majors (2058) i s 88 more t h a n t w i c e the number of s u c c e s s f u l c a n d i d a t e s ( 9 8 5 ) . The numbers m a j o r i n g i n each s u b j e c t have been on the whole r e m a r k a b l y c o n s t a n t i n s p i t e of the y e a r t o y e a r f l u c t u a t i o n s . E n g l i s h , H i s t o r y and F r e n c h have accounted f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y two t h i r d s o f t h e t o t a l and Mathematics and t h e S c i e n c e s f o r another q u a r t e r . O b v i o u s l y the v a r i o u s sub-j e c t s have not been p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l p r o p o r t i o n e d . Any mal-a d j u s t m e n t s , however, w h i c h might have a r i s e n have been 97 ! TABLE XV D i s t r i b u t i o n by Years of Major S u b j e c t s , of a l l Students Completing the Teacher T r a i n i n g Course, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1923-39 I n c l u s i v e . Year Eng. H i s t . F rench L a t i n Germ. Maths > Phys. Chem Bot. Agr 1923-24 37 30 22 13 20 7 12 4" 1924-25 41 28 21 11 15 2 6 1 1925-26 26 31 14 5 22 5 7 1926-27 38 28 21 8 18 11 4 1927-28 40 25 25 12 15 8 5 1928-29 44 29 19 8 11 5 4 1929-30 37 27 22 14 15 12 1 1930-31 42 31 28 11 20 7 1 B i o . 1931-32 59 35 32 21 26 22 7 6 1932-33 33 23 19 16 19 8 8 2 1933-34 30 21 21 15 13 8 6 4 1934-35 36 25 20 23 13 10 5 0 1935-36 31 17 23 11 13 12 7 5 1 1936-37 25 17 16 5 3 7 4 3 2 0 1937-38 35 19 16 7 2 17 11 12 13 5 1938-39 37 23 20 7 4 8 8 2 1 0 Average SB*. 4 21.-2 "TCT7 1577 8.7 576~ 374" T o t a l 591 -106 339 187 9 252 140 90 38 6 Grand T o t a l 2,958 Perce n t a g e of T o t a l I 28.72 19.73 16.47 9.08 12.25 6.80 4.37 1.84 l a r g e l y e f f a c e d by t h e f a c t t h a t i n many of the s m a l l e r h i g h s c h o o l s , t e a c h e r s have had t o t e a c h s u b j e c t f o r which i n a sense t h e y were not a c a d e m i c a l l y p r e p a r e d . F r e q u e n t l y i n t i m e , t h e y have become v e r y p r o f i c i e n t i n t h e adopted c o u r s e s . A l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f women t a k e Languages and H i s t o r y t h a n s t u d y Mathematics or S c i e n c e and the r e s u l t i n g g r e a t e r t u r n -6. A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C olumbia, op. c i t . 98 over i n t h e s e has a l s o a s s i s t e d i n p r e v e n t i n g too much mis-a l i g n m e n t . The p r o p e r d i s t r i b u t i o n of s u b j e c t s can o n l y be d e t e r -mined by a knowledge of the number of p u p i l s t a k i n g a s u b j e c t , the number o f p e r i o d s p e r week a s s i g n e d t o I t and the r e l a t i v e number of t e a c h e r s w i t h d r a w i n g . (French t e a c h e r s are g e n e r a l l y women and P h y s i c s t e a c h e r s men, t h e r e f o r e the r a t e of t u r n o v e r i s g r e a t e r among F r e n c h t e a c h e r s . ) Some of these p o i n t s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d I n the next s e c t i o n . D. D i s t r i b u t i o n of P u p i l s A c c o r d i n g t o S u b j e c t s Taken. "The number of h i g h s c h o o l p u p i l s t a k i n g each s u b j e c t and the number of s u b j e c t s t a k e n , f o r the y e a r 1937-38, were as f o l l o w s : E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n , 25,582; E n g l i s h L i t e r a t u r e , 21,667; E n g l i s h Grammar, 17,375; S o c i a l S t u d i e s , 19,719; Geography, 3,327; G e n e r a l Mathematics, 5,517; A l g e b r a , 13,161; Geometry,' 13,076; T r i g o n o m e t r y , 796; G e n e r a l S c i e n c e , 9,602; C h e m i s t r y , 6,315; A g r i c u l t u r e , 278; P h y s i c s , 2,429; Botany, 586; L a t i n , 3,884; F r e n c h , 12,675; German, 209; A r t , 2,612; Home Economics A, 613; Home Economics B, 639; Home Economics C, 1,799; Woodwork, 3,443; M e c h a n i c a l Drawing, 1,756; Sheet M e t a l , 834; Machine Shop Work, 1,397; J u n i o r B u s i n e s s , 1,940; Bookkeeping, 2,433; A c c o u n t i n g P r a c t i c e , 606; Shorthand, 3481; T y p i n g , 4,323; B u s i n e s s A r i t h m e t i c , 2,363; B u s i n e s s E n g l i s h , 1,479; Economic Geography, 173; S e c r e t a r i a l P r a c t i c e , 1,090; M e c h a n i c a l A p p l i a n c e s , 108. These numbers do not i n c l u d e t h o s e t a k i n g the above s u b j e c t s i n S u p e r i o r Schools or J u n i o r H i g h S c h o o l s i n the P r o v i n c e . " 7 D u r i n g t h i s y e a r 1937-38 t h e h i g h s c h o o l enrolment was 22,582, and E n g l i s h C o m p o s i t i o n was t h e one s u b j e c t t a k e n by 7. S u p e r i n t e n d e n t of E d u c a t i o n , V i c t o r i a , P r i v a t e L e t t e r , December 15, 1938 99 ©very p u p i l . I f each s u b j e c t r e c e i v e d the same amount of time-, -the same number of e q u a l p e r i o d s p e r w e e k — t h e number of t e a c h e r s p e r s u b j e c t would be i n a p p r o x i m a t e l y the same r a t i o as the numbers of p u p i l s . S i n c e t h i s was not the case o n l y v e r y broad d e d u c t i o n s can be drawn. Something Is g a i n e d by condensing the s u b j e c t s i n t o t h e i r n a t u r a l groups as f o l l o w s : E n g l i s h , 61,624; S o c i a l S t u d i e s , 23,046; Mathematics, 32,550; S c i e n c e , 19,210; F o r e i g n Languages, 16,768; A r t , 2,612; Home Economics, 3,051; Manual T r a i n i n g , 7,430; Commercial, 17,888. T h i s p r o b a b l y o v e r r a t e s E n g l i s h v e r y much because C o m p o s i t i o n and Grammar t o g e t h e r , I n most s c h o o l , were the e q u i v a l e n t of one s u b j e c t I n p o i n t of t i m e . T h e r e f o r e about 44,000 would seem t o p l a c e I t i n a more n e a r l y e q u i v a l e n t of t h o s e of the o t h e r s . I t i s now o f i n t e r e s t t o r e f e r t o Table XV a g a i n (page 97) and note the p e r c e n t a g e of new t e a c h e r s m a j o r i n g i n each sub-j e c t . E n g l i s h r i g h t l y comes f i r s t (28 p e r c e n t ) ; H i s t o r y at 19 p e r cent i s t o o h i g h and Mathematics at 12 p e r cent t o o l o w - - t h e y c o u l d w e l l i n t e r c h a n g e p o s i t i o n s . The S c i e n c e s (13 per c e n t ) may be alb out r i g h t but L a t i n and F r e n c h combined (25 p e r cent) are a p p a r e n t l y double t h e i r r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e . F urthermore L a t i n s h o u l d be about one q u a r t e r I n s t e a d of one h a l f t h e F r e n c h p r o p o r t i o n , (9 p e r cent and 16 p e r cent r e s p e c t i v e l y ) • W h i l e t h i s d e s c r i b e s the s i t u a t i o n of the p a s t i t s e r v e s but l i t t l e as a guide f o r t h e f u t u r e . The advent of a new c u r r i c u l u m i s a l t e r i n g t h e set-up c o n s i d e r a b l y . At p r e s e n t 100 we are i n t h e p e r i o d of t r a n s i t i o n and i t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o determine what w i l l be the u l t i m a t e outcome. A r a t h e r e x t e n s i v e l i s t of s u b j e c t s i s o f f e r e d and the c o n s t a n t s are reduced t o E n g l i s h , S o c i a l S t u d i e s and H e a l t h . The demand f o r t e a c h e r s of t h e s e s u b j e c t s f o r t h i s r e a son must remain f a i r l y c o n s t a n t and be governed by the t o t a l number of p u p i l s . At t h a t p o i n t , however, any degree of p r e d i c t a b i l i t y c e a s e s . Two b r o a d courses l i e ahead of the p u p i l , e i t h e r towards U n i v e r s i t y E x t r a n c e E x a m i n a t i o n or High S c h o o l G r a d u a t i o n . U n i v e r s i t y E n t r a n c e i s p r i m a r i l y i n t e n d e d f o r t h a t s m a l l group, commonly mentioned as 10 p e r c e n t , who d e s i r e t o c o n t i n u e t h e i r s t u d i e s at U n i v e r s i t y ; t h e remainder are expected t o t a k e High S c h o o l G r a d u a t i o n . The f a c t t h a t the E n g i n e e r i n g S o c i e t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, the N u r s i n g I n s t i t u t e s , the Normal S c h o o l s and o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n s have de-manded U n i v e r s i t y E n t r a n c e o r b e t t e r as t h e i r minimum ent r a n c e r e q u i r e m e n t s has g r e a t l y reduced the v a l u e of High S c h o o l G r a d u a t i o n i n the eyes of many p u p i l s who might o r d i n a r i l y have t a k e n s u c h a c o u r s e . E x p e r i e n c e so f a r has been t h a t p r o b a b l y n o t more t h a n 50 p e r cent s e l e c t t h i s l a t t e r a l t e r -n a t i v e . Whether t h i s s i t u a t i o n w i l l a l t e r i n the f u t u r e or n o t , cannot a t t h i s t i m e be d i s c e r n e d . S u p e r f i c i a l l y s p e a k i n g , i t would seem r a t h e r d i f f i c u l t t o m a i n t a i n the e q u i v a l e n c y of two such d i v e r s e s t a n d a r d s f o r e s s e n t i a l l y the same t h i n g — h i g h s c h o o l l e a r n i n g must g a i n i n p r e s t i g e t o t h e d e t r i m e n t of the o t h e r . 101 I t i s not w i t h o u t s i g n i f i c a n c e , a l s o , at t h i s p o i n t , t o note t h a t whereas f o r m e r l y one was a s p e c i a l i s t I n Chemistry or P h y s i c s o r B i o l o g y , one now has t o be f a m i l i a r w i t h the whole f i e l d of S c i e n c e , - C h e m i s t r y , P h y s i c s , B i o l o g y , Geology, Astronomy, A g r i c u l t u r e , H e a l t h and E n g i n e e r i n g . S i m i l a r l y we no l o n g e r t e a c h H i s t o r y but S o c i a l S t u d i e s i n v o l v i n g H i s t o r y , Economics, S o c i o l o g y , Geography and o t h e r a l l i e d s u b j e c t s . The o l d c u r r i c u l u m f o l l o w e d p a r t i c u l a r s u b j e c t s c e r t a i n l y w i t h as much r i g o r i f not as much b r e a d t h and depth as t h a t found i n s c h o o l s of advanced l e a r n i n g . The new c u r r i c u l u m , however, attempts t o develop a l l - r o u n d good c i t i z e n s by making the cou r s e s more d e f i n i t e l y r e l a t e d t o p r a c t i c a l l i v i n g . T h i s i n v o l v e s much broader courses c u t t i n g a c r o s s more s u b j e c t f i e l d s . Thus the t e a c h e r of to-morrow i n s t e a d of b e i n g w e l l p r e p a r e d i n one or two s u b j e c t s w i l l be f o r c e d t o have a much more g e n e r a l e d u c a t i o n . I t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o expect t h a t the f u t u r e may see a r e d u c t i o n t o fewer c a t e g o r i e s of the k i n d s (by s u b j e c t ) of t e a c h e r s needed, p o s s i b l y the S o c i a l S c i e n c e s , the P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s , the A r t s of S e l f - E x p r e s s i o n such as Languages, M u s i c and A r t and t h e I n d u s t r i a l Arts.. Mathematics would be a d j u n c t s of the P h y s i c a l and I n d u s t r i a l S c i e n c e s . E. Numbers of P u p i l s T a k i n g t h e T e c h n i c a l S u b j e c t s . T e c h n i c a l s u b j e c t s , w h i c h i n c l u d e the I n d u s t r i a l A r t s , Home Economics w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of A g r i c u l t u r e . To what e x t e n t these w i l l c o n t i n u e t o r e p l a c e the more academic 102 * ' TABLE XVI D i s t r i b u t i o n of P u p i l s , I n s t r u c t o r s and Centres Engaged i n Manual T r a i n i n g and Home Economics by Y e a r s , 1923-1939 I n c l u s i v e . Manual T r a i n i n g Home Economics No. b f r No. of No. of No. ©f No. of No. of Ye a r P u p i l s Centres I n s t r u c t ( rs p u p i l s Centres I n s t r u c t o r s 1923* 12,071 79 69 8,446 51 49 1924 14,150 79 69 11,193 51 54 1925 14,223 81 71 11,193 55 54 1926 14,251 83 75 11,455 55 55 1927 13,043 86 78 11,429 57 59 1928 14,409 93 80 12,311 73 71 1929 14,981 111 89 12,231 78 73 1930 15,179 114 91 11,888 83 75 1931 14,983 139 96 12,478 86 79 1932 15,428 140 95 12,465 87 81 1933 13,357 132 89 12,513 86 76 1934 13,258 130 88 13,099 81 71 1935 12,817 133 87 11,221 81 72 1936 13,540 138 94 11,328 88 77 1937 13,806 139 101 12,530 103 91 1938 13,640 . 132 99 12,672 106 94 1939 14,087 141 112 13,025 113 104 *As at June 3 0 t h . s u b j e c t s i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o p r e d i c t b ut p o s s i b l y t h e demand f o r them w i l l l e v e l o f f at about t h e i r p r e s e n t v a l u e s . Manual T r a i n i n g , or t h e I n d u s t r i a l A r t s as i t i s now known, has been a p a r t of the c u r r i c u l u m almost s i n c e t he t u r n of the Cen t u r y . I t was n o t u n t i l 1936, however, t h a t i t bgcame compulsory f o r a l l c i t i e s , of the F i r s t and Second C l a s s t o e s t a b l i s h manual t r a i n i n g c e n t r e s f o r Grades 7 and 8. T a b l e XVI g i v e s t h e changes i n enrolment and i n the number of i n s t r u c t o r s and shops f o r the l a s t 17 y e a r s . Some of the l a r g e c i t i e s have a number of c e n t r e s - - i n 1938-39 t h e r e were 141 shops i n 54 c i t i e s and d i s t r i c t s . 8. Annual Reports of P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h Columbia, o p . c i t . 103 C e r t a i n f a c t s appear from a s t u d y of t h i s T a b l e . F i r s t , t h e r e was a l a r g e i n c r e a s e i n t r a i n i n g c e n t r e s d u r i n g the prosperous y e a r s e n d i n g i n 1929 and s u b s e q u e n t l y a f a i l u r e t o m a i n t a i n a l l o f them d u r i n g the d e p r e s s i o n . Second, the g r e a t e s t enrolment o c c u r r e d i n 1931-32. And t h i r d , the f a c t t h a t i n 1923-24 t h e r e were 69 i n s t r u c t o r s f o r 14,150 p u p i l s w h i l e i n 1938-39 t h e r e were 112 i n s t r u c t o r s f o r 14,087 p u p i l s -an i n c r e a s e of 43 i n s t r u c t o r s w i t h a decrease of 63 p u p i l s -i s not w i t h o u t i n t e r e s t . T h i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e i n c r e a s e i n the number of i n s t r u c t o r s can be accounted f o r by the opening of t r a i n i n g c e n t r e s i n t h e s m a l l e r communities, r e s u l t i n g i n fewer p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r , and by the g r e a t e r time spent by each p u p i l i n . I n d u s t r i a l A r t s due t o more extended c o u r s e s . Manual t r a i n i n g t e a c h e r s are p r e p a r e d by attendance a t Summer Sc h o o l s and where p o s s i b l e on Saturday, mornings. The i n i t i a l r e q u i r e m e n t s are e i t h e r F i r s t C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s and an a p t i t u d e f o r p r a c t i c a l work, or e x p e r i e n c e i n shops. The D i r e c t o r r e p o r t e d t h a t f o r the Summer S e s s i o n of 1939 over 90 were i n attendance and of t h e s e about 55 were a l r e a d y employed as i n s t r u c t o r s . T h i s l e f t a s u r p l u s of about 40 i n the p r o c e s s of q u a l i f y i n g — a s u r p l u s s u f f i c i e n t , i t seems, t o care of a l l the v a c a n c i e s t h a t w i l l be c r e a t e d by r e t i r e m e n t or e x p a n s i o n f o r some y e a r s t o come. Ta b l e XVI does not g i v e much i n d i c a t i o n of any d e c i d e d e x p a n s i o n . 9. D i r e c t o r of T e c h n i c a l E d u c a t i o n , V i c t o r i a , P r i v a t e I n t e r v i e w , J u l y , 1939. 104 Home Economics commenced a few y e a r s a f t e r Manual T r a i n -i n g . The two have t r a v e l l e d almost p a r a l l e l p a t h s - - a c o n d i t i o n more o r l e s s t o be expe c t e d . I t , t o o , became compulsory f o r Grades 7 and 8 i n 1936 and as a consequence saw a number of new c e n t r e s e s t a b l i s h e d . Prom the d a t a f o r the l a s t 17 y e a r s (Table XVI) i t can be seen t h a t s i n c e 1923-24 the numbers t a k i n g Home Economics have been re m a r k a b l y c o n s t a n t . T h i s number t o o s u f f e r e d a decrease r e c e s s i o n f o l l o w i n g the d e p r e s s i o n . Home Economics, l i k e w i s e , has w i t n e s s e d a d e c i d e d e x p a n s i o n i n the number of t e a c h e r s r e l a t i v e t o the number of p u p i l s , and f o r the same r e a s o n s . There are b a r e l y enough Home Economics t e a c h e r s t o meet the demand. C e r t a i n f a c t o r s m i t i g a t e a g a i n s t t h e s u p p l y . One i s t h a t a l l c a n d i d a t e s must a t t e n d a u n i v e r s i t y i n M i d d l e or E a s t e r n Canada and thus t h e source of s u p p l y i s somewhat remote. Most of t h e Home Economics t e a c h e r s i n B r i t i s h Columbia are n a t i v e t o the P r a i r i e P r o v i n c e s . Secondly the t u r n o v e r i s r a t h e r l a r g e - - c e r t a i n l y l a r g e r t h a n i s the case f o r Manual T r a i n i n g t e a c h e r s - - a n d l a s t l y the p e r i o d of t r a i n -i n g i s l o n g e r , b e i n g 5 y e a r s - - 4 y e a r s academic work and one y e a r p r o f e s s i o n a l . I n t h i s i t resembles the t r a i n i n g r e c e i v e d by h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s . The D i r e c t o r r e p o r t e d t h a t of the 25 placements d u r i n g the 105 p a s t summer (1939), 14 c o n s i s t e d o f a change i n p o s i t i o n and 11 r e p r e s e n t e d appointments of new t e a c h e r s . I n 1936-37 t h e r e were 18 new appointments. I n t h e o p i n i o n of the D i r e c t o r t h e r e c o u l d he l i t t l e f u r t h e r e x p a n s i o n . She thought t h a t the next y e a r o r two might add about 10 a d d i t i o n a l p o s i t i o n s which would b r i n g t h e number of Home Economics c e n t r e s up t o t h e maximum under p r e s e n t c o n d i t i o n s . io TABLE X V I I D i s t r i b u t i o n of P u p i l s by Years f o r Commercial and A g r i c u l t u r e , 1922-23 and 1929-39 I n c l u s i v e . Number of P u p i l s Y e a r Commercial 1922-23 1929- 30 1930- 31 1931- 32 1932- 33 1933- 34 1934- 35 1935- 36 1936- 37 1937- 38 1938- 39 1023 2421 2792 3121 3654 4617 3233 4420 4584 6708 8498 •» Not Re p o r t e d T a b l e X V I I i n d i c a t e s the changes t h a t have o c c u r r e d i n the enrolment i n t h e A g r i c u l t u r e and Commercial c o u r s e s f o r t h e l a s t t e n y e a r s . The y e a r 1922-23 i s I n c l u d e d f o r comparison. These two courses have been r e s t r i c t e d almost e x c l u s i v e l y t o 10. D i r e c t o r of Home Economics, V i c t o r i a . By P r i v a t e I n t e r v i e w , J u l y , 1939. 11. Annual R e p o r t s o f P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h Columbia. o p . c i t . 106 h i g h s c h o o l s , whereas Home Economics and Manual T r a i n i n g have been a p a r t of b o t h the e l e m e n t a r y and h i g h s c h o o l c u r r i c u l a . A g r i c u l t u r e has shown but l i t t l e change d u r i n g t h e y e a r s . T h i s s u b j e c t has been c o n f i n e d l a r g e l y t o d i s t r i c t s which were themselves a g r i c u l t u r a l or t o d i s t r i c t s a d j o i n f o g a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s . At p r e s e n t (1938-39) i t i s t a u g h t i n 15 c i t i e s and d i s t r i c t s . The t e a c h e r s have u s u a l l y been graduates i n a g r i c u l t u r e from some u n i v e r s i t y . There does not appear t o be any l i k e l i h o o d of an advance i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r f i e l d of e d u c a t i o n . The commercial courses have shown the g r e a t e s t i n c r e a s e of a l l the t e c h n i c a l s u b j e c t s . I n Vancouver, a l o n e , t h e r e are now two s e p a r a t e commercial h i g h s c h o o l s . C l a s s e s are h e l d i n 35 c i t i e s and d i s t r i c t s . There i s no doubt about t h e a p p e a l of the commercial course t o a l a r g e number of p u p i l s . They f e e l t h e y have something which can be u t i l i z e d t o e a r n them a l i v i n g . One s e n i o r m a t r i c u l a t i o n boy r e t u r n e d t o h i g h s c h o o l t o take commercial. A f t e r w a r d s he e x p r e s s e d the o p i n i o n t h a t the o n l y t h i n g of v a l u e he had l e a r n e d i n h i g h s c h o o l was commercial, because, of c o u r s e , i t s e c u r e d him a j o b . I t i s r a t h e r a good r a t i n g o f a h i g h s.chool e d u c a t i o n i n t h e eyes of many p u p i l s - -i f i t i s v o c a t i o n a l i t i s v a l u a b l e , o t h e r w i s e i t i s a waste of t i m e . One cannot but wonder how such a l a r g e number of t r a i n e d young p e o p l e c o u l d be absorbed each y e a r by the commercial w o r l d . To the output of the p u b l i c s c h o o l s must be added t h o s e 107 p r e p a r e d i n p r i v a t e b u s i n e s s c o l l e g e s . There i s no doubt t h a t many do not secu r e the jobs f o r which t h e y are equipped. F o r t h a t r e a s o n one would expect t h a t i n time commercial courses would d e c l i n e i n f a v o r . At what p o i n t the demand w i l l l e v e l o f f , however, cannot as' y e t be d i s c o v e r e d . Commercial t e a c h e r s t o s e c u r e a Commercial c e r t i f i c a t e , must have a F i r s t C l a s s or Academic c e r t i f i c a t e and by attendance a t summer s e s s i o n o r at o t h e r times complete c e r t a i n r e q u i r e m e n t s . There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e overlapping--many t e a c h e r s d o i n g o n l y p a r t time commercial w o r k — s o t h a t i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o determine the t r u e s i t u a t i o n . There are a p p a r e n t l y s u f f i c -i e n t t e a c h e r s , however, e i t h e r q u a l i f i e d o r i n t h e pr o c e s s of becoming so t o s u p p l y the needs f o r some time t o come. M u s i c , A r t , P h y s i c a l E d u c a t i o n , L i b r a r y and Guidance s p e c i a l i s t s have as a r u l e been t r a i n e d i n much the same manner as Manual T r a i n i n g o r Commercial t e a c h e r s . I n most cases t h e y must f i r s t have e i t h e r a F i r s t C l a s s or Academic c e r t i f i c a t e and the n by meeting c e r t a i n a d d i t i o n a l r e q u i r e -ments e i t h e r by attendance a t summer s c h o o l s o r o t h e r w i s e t h e y a c q u i r e s p e c i a l c e r t i f i c a t e s i n these v a r i o u s f i e l d s . A few, t r a i n e d o n l y i n the s e s u b j e c t s , r e c e i v e appointments i n t he l a r g e r c e n t r e s as s u p e r v i s o r s or f u l l time t e a c h e r s of t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r s p e c i a l i t y . There i s one A r t s c h o o l i n B r i t i s h Columbia--Vancouver S c h o o l of A r t - - b u t no s e p a r a t e s c h o o l of Music o r P h y s i c a l E d u c a t i o n . A l l t h e s e s u b j e c t s are t a u g h t , however, i n n e a r l y a l l s c h o o l s on a p a r t time b a s i s - - t h e t e a c h e r s h a v i n g v a r y i n g degrees of p r e p a r a t i o n and 108 competence. Whether these branches of e d u c a t i o n w i l l expand i n importance i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o say. There seems t o be v e r y good reasons why t h e y s h o u l d but t o what e x t e n t t e a c h e r s s h o u l d become s p e c i a l i s t s i n t h e s e f i e l d s i s something t h a t w i l l have t o be d e c i d e d i n the l i g h t of the changing f u t u r e . I n c o n c l u s i o n i t seems p o s s i b l e w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of Home Economics, t o t r a i n , f a i r l y a d e q u a t e l y , r e g u l a r t e a c h e r s f o r c e r t a i n t e c h n i c a l branches of e d u c a t i o n c o n s i d e r a b l y i n advance of the need f o r them and t o t r a n s f e r them from t h e academic t o the t e c h n i c a l departments as the demand a r i s e s . S i n c e t h e y are r e g u l a r l y employed i n the w i n t e r and secure t h e i r t r a i n i n g d u r i n g t h e summer v a c a t i o n no harm i s done i f t h e r e i s a s u r p l u s . P. The Accumulated S u r p l u s of T e a c h e r s . I n - c o n c l u d i n g t h i s c h a p t e r i t i s of i n t e r e s t t o c o n s i d e r the s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s i n r e l a t i o n t o the demand and t o determine the e x t e n t of t h e s u r p l u s , i f any. U n f o r t u n a t e l y any d a t a whatever f o r the demand s i d e cannot be s e c u r e d be-f o r e the y e a r 1930-31 and r a t h e r t h a n i g n o r e e n t i r e l y the.y y e a r s p r e v i o u s t o t h a t , w i t h d r a w a l s have been e s t i m a t e d as 10 p e r cent of t h e t e a c h i n g body. There,seems t o be no means of c h e c k i n g t h i s e s t i m a t e except t h a t i t was chosen because i t i s g r e a t e r t h a n any r e s u l t found s i n c e 1930-31. T a b l e X V I I I g i v e s the d a t a f o r t h e years 1922-39 i n -c l u s i v e . The number of s e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e y e a r s 1930-39 i s t a k e n f r o m Table X I I I . (page 82) TABLE X V I I I Demand, by F a c t o r s , S u p p l y and. S u r p l u s of Teachers by Y e a r s , 1922-39 I n c l u s i v e . Demand f o r Teachers Supply S u r p l u s With- Pens- I n c r e a s e T o t a l of or Year drawals i o n s or Demand Teachers (shortage (decrease) 1921-22 478 lO 1922-23 311* 124 435* 635 / *L . y- 43 1923-24 321 93 414 645 -f 221 1924-25 329 183 411 564 i- 238 1925-26 339 102 441 449 ^ 1 2 3 1926-27 355 135 488 358 - 39 1927-28 366 137 503 407 -145 1928-29 378 116 494* 354 - 87 1929-30 385 -* 70 455 380 -101 1930-31 200 38 94 352 443 -r 48 1931-32 200 30 11 241 423 •y-202 1932-33 182 37 -47 172 406 1-251 1933-34 246 34 -39 241 335 -M65 1934-55 282 35 69 386 280 - 51 1955-36 235 34 14 283 309 - 3 1936-37 246 44 69 359 219 - 50 1937-38 278 25 67 >J370 214 -151 1938-39 275 22 102 399 231 - 1 8 5 *" E s t i m a t e d Accumulated s u r p l u s -f 479 As t h e demand i s f o r the f i r s t of t h e s c h o o l year and t h e s u p p l y f o r the end, t h e number of t e a c h e r s p r e p a r e d i n 1930-31, f o r i n s t a n c e , i s i n a sense t h e s u p p l y f o r 1931-32. Hence t o determine the s u r p l u s or sh o r t a g e f o r any g i v e n y e a r i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o s u b t r a c t t h e s u p p l y of the p r e v i o u s y e a r . T h i s has been done i n T a b l e X V I I I . Q u i t e n a t u r a l l y p e r i o d s of over- and u n d e r - p r o d u c t i o n 12.To determine the s u r p l u s f o r a g i v e n y e a r s u b t r a c t the demand of t h a t y e a r from the s u p p l y of the p r e v i o u s y e a r . 110 have f o l l o w e d each o t h e r , r a t h e r c u r i o u s l y , i n f o u r y e a r c y c L There i s s t i l l q u i t e a l a r g e accumulated s u r p l u s a f t e r f i v e years of u n d e r p r o d u c t i o n . Too much r e l i a n c e , however, cannot be p l a c e d on t h i s r e s u l t because f i r s t of a l l , i t , assumes a c o n s i d e r a b l e c a r r y - o v e r f rom the 1922-26 e r a , t h e f i g u r e s f o r w h i c h are l i t t l e b e t t e r t h a n i n f o r m e d guesses, and, s e c o n d l y a l l s u r p l u s e s t e n d t o s h r i n k w i t h time--unemployed t e a c h e r s get m a r r i e d , s e c u r e o t h e r p o s i t i o n s or d i e . I n 1933-34 the number of unemployed t e a c h e r s was q u i t e l a r g e — a r o u n d 900. At t h a t time t h e obvious s u r p l u s was c a u s i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e a l a r m because i t was a common c o n d i t i o n everywhere. I t would be i n t e r e s t i n g t o know t o what e x t e n t the s i t u a t i o n has im-p r o v e d i n o t h e r p a r t s of the w o r l d . B r i t i s h Columbia must v e r y soon see the number of t e a c h -ers i n t r a i n i n g i n c r e a s e or f a c e an a c t u a l s h o r t a g e , a con-d i t i o n w hich has not e x i s t e d s i n c e the Great War. F i n a l l y T a b l e X V I I I b r i n g s out v e r y c l e a r l y the e f f e c t of e x p a n s i o n on t h e demand f o r t e a c h e r s . The average y e a r l y i n c r e a s e f o r t h e n i n e - y e a r p e r i o d , 1922-31, was 106 t e a c h e r s , but f o r the n e x t e i g h t - y e a r p e r i o d , 1931-39, i t was o n l y 31, an average a n n u a l decrease i n the demand of 75 t e a c h e r s . S p e c i a l i s t t e a c h e r s have i n c r e a s e d i n numbers s i n c e the i n -a u g u r a t i o n of compulsory I n d u s t r i a l A r t s and Home Economics c o u r s e s , w h i c h f a c t a ccounts f o r p a r t of t h e expansion of the l a s t two or t h r e e y e a r s . I l l P i g . 5 D i s t r i b u t i o n of the S u p p l y of and Demand f o r Teachers by Y e a r s , 1921-39, I n c l u s i v e . (Data f r o m T a b l e ' X V I I I ) 112 ' . CHAPTER VTT The Changing C h a r a c t e r of the Teac h i n g Perannriftl as i t A f f e c t s SUDTDIV and Demand. A. The I n c r e a s i n g P r o p o r t i o n of Men, The l a r g e number of s e p a r a t i o n s i n the t e a c h i n g p r o -f e s s i o n each y e a r as I n d i c a t e d by t h e number of r e f u n d of 1 p e n s i o n c o n t r i b u t i o n s , of which 80 p e r cent a re f o r women, shows t h a t the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n Is not a s t a b l e o c c u p a t i o n such as one f i n d s i n t h e case of m e d i c i n e , d e n t i s t r y and t h e ot h e r p r o f e s s i o n s . The r e a s o n of course i s o b v i o u s - - i t i s the l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of women t e a c h e r s . To few of them does t e a c h -i n g mean much more than an i n t e r l u d e between g r a d u a t i o n and m a r r i a g e . T h i s i s not t o i n f e r t h a t t h e y are t h e l e s s c a p a b l e , s u c c e s s f u l o r c o n s c i e n t i o u s f o r i t . T h i s i n s t a b i l i t y i s thus caused by those' engaged i n t e a c h i n g and not by the type of work. The consequence of t h i s i s t h a t a v e r y much l a r g e r p r o -p o r t i o n of new c a n d i d a t e s must be p r e p a r e d a n n u a l l y t h a n i s n e c e s s a r y f o r any o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n . I t i s l o g i c a l t o suppose t h a t the g r e a t e r the number of men i n p r o p o r t i o n t o women the s m a l l e r s h o u l d be t h e t u r n o v e r . S i m i l a r l y an i n c r e a s e i n the s t a n d a r d of c e r t i f i c a t e s demanded s h o u l d be exp e c t e d t o reduce the numbers who f o r m e r l y were s a i d t o use t e a c h i n g as a stepp-i n g - s t o n e . The more time and money i n v e s t e d I n p r e p a r a t i o n the l e s s l i k e l y one i s t o e n t e r w i t h o u t due c o n s i d e r a t i o n o r 1. Sup e r a n n u a t i o n Commissioner, V i c t o r i a , P r i v a t e L e t t e r , A p r i l 22, 1940 113 t o l e a v e on t h e s l i g h t e s t p r e t e x t . F o r t u n a t e l y i t seems p o s s i b l e t o v e r i f y t h e s e statements w i t h a c t u a l f i g u r e s , (pages I t i s t o o much t o hope t h a t t e a c h i n g w i l l ever succeed i n a c q u i r i n g the same s t a b i l i t y of p e r s o n n e l as the o t h e r p r o f e s s i o n s . Of n e c e s s i t y t h e r e must be women t e a c h e r s . They are almost i n d i s p e n s a b l e f o r c e r t a i n c l a s s e s and typ e s of t e a c h i n g . I t wouldbe u n n a t u r a l t o expect them t o r e f r a i n f r o m m a r r i a g e and i t appears t o be a g a i n s t our i n c l i n a t i o n s t o p e r m i t them t o t e a c h a f t e r t h e y are m a r r i e d though i n some s t a t e s i t i s done. Un l e s s however economic arrangements are made t o ca r e f o r t h e s u r p l u s l a b o r i t i s d o u b t f u l whether m a r r i e d women w i l l be a l l o w e d , i n Canada, t o c o n t i n u e t o t e a c h and so d e p r i v e s i n g l e p e r s o n s of an o p p o r t u n i t y t o work. Table XIX g i v e s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of t e a c h e r s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e c e r t i f i c a t e s h e l d and a l s o by sex, f o r the l a s t 27 year s i n B r i t i s h Columbia. T h i s l o n g p e r i o d i s used t o b r i n g out two p o i n t s - - f i r s t the re m a r k a b l y s t e a d y growth i n the number of men and second t h e temporary decrease i n t h e i r numbers brought about by t h e Great War. The d e c l i n e d i d not b e g i n t i l l t h e second y e a r of the war. One cannot but wonder i f h i s t o r y w i l l r e p e a t i t s e l f . The number o f women t e a c h e r s i n c r e a s e d more r a p i d l y t h a n men but reached i t s z e n i t h i n 1930-31, a f t e r w hich i t s u f f e r e d a c o n s i d e r a b l e s e t - b a c k . F i g u r e VI p r e s e n t s t h e same i n f o r m a t i o n g r a p h i c a l l y . I t i s u n d e r s t a n d a b l e t h a t t h e number of men s h o u l d i n c r e a s e f a i r l y s t e a d i l y . T h e i r enrolment a t the t r a i n i n g 114 ' ) TABLE XIX D i s t r i b u t i o n of Teachers by Y e a r s , A c c o r d i n g t o C e r t i f i c a t e s and Sex, i n B r i t i s h Columbia--1913-39 I n c l u s i v e . Year Academic F i r s t Second T h i r d Temporary S p e c i a l i s t Male Fe-male 1913* 320 450 422 213 19% •A r.r. 406 1191 1914 347 634 480 274 124 485 1374 1915 416 592 530 322 106 521 1445 1916 408 529 624 370 47 86 523 1541 1917 380 466 740 393 53 92 468 1656 1918 372 463 796 420 80 115 436 1810 1919 376 453 873 388 140 102 486 1846 1920 417 499 976 404 132 129 572 1985 1921 433 490 1105 418 139 149 595 2139 1922 482 548 1217 374 202 171 700 2294 1923 521 638 1416 297 83 163 729 2389 1924 526 717 1516 235 40 177 779 2432 1925 535 780 1597 187 19 176 847 2447 1926 548 887 1603 158 29 171 866 2530 1927 580 994 1610 133 19 195 899 2632 1928 612 1110 1589 113 27 217 995 2673 1929 695 1227 1545 92 27 198 1057 2727 1930 730 1244 1534 83 35 215 1116 2738 1931 759 1380 1471 65 30 225 1163 2785 1932 789 1441 1378 73 30 238 1235 2724 1933 835 1449 1309 69 17 223 1218 2694 1934 862 1490 1218 56 10 231 1283 2590 1935 922 1569 1150 51 4 237 1342 2600 1936 955 1607 1082 49 4 239 1403 2553 1937 1012 1642 1021 47 2 276 1496 2529 1938 1062 1717 940 48 5 291 1557 2535 1939 1123 1854 799 43 - 350 1601 2593 * As a t June 30th of each y e a r . I n s t i t u t i o n s has remained r e m a r k a b l y c o n s t a n t . ( F i g . 4 page 93) C o n t r a r i w i s e a l a r g e enrolment of women was d u r i n g t h e years f r o m about 1920-1927, which l a t e r -decreased v e r y d e c i d e d l y . Hence t h e i r numbers expanded r a p i d l y d u r i n g t h a t p e r i o d but 2. Annual R e p o r t s of P u b l i c S c h o o l s of B r i t i s h C o lumbia. O p . c i t . 115 '0 V/l )ooa P i g . 6 D i s t r i b u t i o n of I n c l u s i v e , f o r B r i t i s h Y e a r s Teachers by Sex, 1913-59 Columbia , 116 l o s t out l a t ' t e r l y t o the men. I n 1917-18 men formed l e s s t h a n 20 p e r cent of the t o t a l number of t e a c h e r s w h i c h i s the minimum f o r t h e 27 years under r e v i e w . F o r a number of y e a r s i t h overed around 25 p e r cent but now (1938-39) has rea c h e d 38 per c e n t . Whether t h e p r o p o r t i o n of men w i l l c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e o n l y time can t e l l . The number of v i s i t i n g t e a c h e r s on exchange has been c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o sex but not a c c o r d i n g t o c e r t i f i c a t e hence the sum of t h e d i f f e r e n t c l a s s -es of c e r t i f i c a t e s i n a g i v e n year does not n e c e s s a r i l y e q u a l the sum of the number of t e a c h e r s by s e x . ( T a b l e XIX) Ta b l e XX shows the d i s t r i b u t i o n of t e a c h e r s by sex f o r each t y p e of s c h o o l and I n each c l a s s of d i s t r i c t f o r t h e ye a r 1935-36. I n h i g h s c h o o l s men are d e c i d e d l y i n the major-i t y , almost e q u a l i n numbers t o women i n the j u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s and t h e r e a f t e r v e r y d e f i n i t e l y i n t h e m i n o r i t y . Two f a c t o r s seem t o determine the l o c a t i o n of men. U s u a l l y t h e y are not p r e s e n t t o any e x t e n t i n t h e lower grades w i t h t h e s m a l l c h i l d r e n and t h e y t e n d t o move t o the h i g h e r p a i d p o s i t i o n s because the $780 f o r the one-room s c h o o l s o r even the maximum s a l a r y of the c i t y e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s does n ot g e n e r a l l y a f f o r d a s u f f i c i e n t l y h i g h s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g f o r a man w i t h a f a m i l y . A d m i n i s t r a t i v e p o s i t i o n s , however, even i n e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s do a t t r a c t men and are t h e r e f o r e as a r u l e h e l d by men c h i e f l y because s c h o o l boards f e e l t h a t a man w i l l be more permanent t h a n a woman and perhaps because, as t h e women s a y , " I t i s s t i l l a man's w o r l d . " 117 TABLE XX D i s t r i b u t i o n of Teachers by Sex i n V a r i o u s Types o f Schools f o r B r i t i s h Columbia f o r the Y e a r 1935-36 . J H i g h S c h o o l J u n i o r High Schools S u p e r i o r Schools E l e m e n t a r y (more than one room) One room Schools M. P. M. P . M. P. M. M. P. C i t i e s D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t i e s R u r a l 342 72 49 201 63 22 95 9 3__ 98 9 1_ 1 3 _59_ 2 4 72 317 150 96 1010 423 228 198 429 T o t a l s 463 • 286 107 108 63 78 563 1661 198 429 P e r c e n t -ages 62$ 38$ 50$ 50 £44$ 56$ 25$ 75$ 32$ 68$ B. I n c r e a s i n g P r o p o r t i o n of H i g h C e r t i f i c a t e s . T a b l e XIX.and F i g u r e 7 show the show the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e c l a s s e s of c e r t i f i c a t e s of a l l t e a c h e r s a c t i v e l y em-p l o y e d , by y e a r s f o r t h e p e r i o d 1913-39 i n c l u s i v e . The number of s p e c i a l i s t s c e r t i f i c a t e s have shown a v e r y modest but s t e a d y i n c r e a s e . The number of T h i r d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s expanded r a p i d l y d u r i n g the war y e a r s , when t h e r e d e v e l o p e d a pronounced s h o r t a g e o f t e a c h e r s , suspended u n t i l 1921 and t h e n began a r a p i d d e c l i n e w h i c h was underway even b e f o r e t h e i s s u a n c e of f u r t h e r T h i r d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s ceased i n June 1922. I n a p e r i o d of 7 y e a r s over 300 T h i r d C l a s s C e r t i f i c a t e s d i s a p p e a r -3. I b i d . 118 4 0 -a 3 MOO / crcr o 1 * r 7 , 165 / 1 / .s ( • — > / / \ / / / N i * / / A 1 N \ / / 1 \ \ \ / y 7 / \ \ \ • 1 1 / V \ \ - / / /] \ v _ / / f I / 1 -» \ \ •J I r / < trie h 1 \ i l / / / s X. \ 1 / / / 1 / / \ -/ , '/ c f f r X • *-$ : * Y e a r s P i g . 7 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Each G l a s s of C e r t i f i c a t e by Y e a r s f o r t h e P e r i o d 1913-39 I n c l u s i v e , 119 ed from the r o l l s — s o m e of t h e s e t e a c h e r s r e t i r e d , some im-pr o v e d t h e i r c e r t i f i c a t i o n . S i n c e t h e n a f a i r l y hard core has p e r s i s t e d w i t h o n l y a drop of 50 i n the l a s t 11 y e a r s . . The number of Second C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s had a v e r y r a p i d and r e m a r k a b l y u n i f o r m growth from 1913 t o 1925 i n c r e a s i n g almost f o u r f o l d i n t h a t t w e l v e - y e a r p e r i o d . T h i s was f o l l o w e d by 5 y e a r s of i n d e c i s i o n and the n a p r e c i p i t o u s d e c l i n e . I n 1937 t h e Department of E d u c a t i o n d e c i d e d not t o i s s u e any more Second C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s . I t I s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note how t h e y began t o decrease i n number n e a r l y 10 y e a r s p r i o r t o t h a t d a t e . The s u r p l u s of t e a c h e r s d u r i n g t h a t i n t e r v a l made c o m p e t i t i o n so keen t h a t t h e y l o s t out t o the h i g h e r c e r t i f i -c a t e s . Prom now on t h e y w i l l c o n t i n u e t o d i s a p p e a r even more r a p i d l y t h a n b e f o r e , r e p e a t i n g t h e c y c l e of growth and d e c l i n e e x p e r i e n c e d by T h i r d C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s . F i r s t C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s made a d e f i n i t e s t a r t upwards by the Great War i n t e r r u p t e d t h e i r g r o w t h - - a c t u a l l y p r o d u c i n g a r e c e s s i o n — a n d i t was not t i l l 1921 t h a t the t?rend got under way a g a i n . The r a t e of growth has p a r a l l e l l e d t h a t of the Second C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s . S i n c e 1931, however, t h i s r a t e o f growth has slowed down and has remained f a i r l y s t e a d y on t h e new t r e n d . So f a r t h e r e has been i n d i c a t i o n t h a t the numbers would cease t o expand. That can h a r d l y o c c u r t i l l the Second C l a s s c e r t i f i c a t e s have been, much more g r e a t l y reduced. Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s a l s o s u f f e r e d a r e l a p s e d u r i n g t h e war y e a r s , b u t commenced t o i n c r e a s e a g a i n i n 1919 and 120 have c o n t i n u e d t o do so ever s i n c e . I n 1924, due undoubtedly t o the i n a u g u r a t i o n of the t e a c h e r s t r a i n i n g course at the P r o v i n c i a l U n i v e r s i t y , saw the b e g i n n i n g of a f a i r l y u n i f o r m a n d - r e g u l a r t r e n d w h i c h has p e r s i s t e d t o the p r e s e n t . C. R e l a t i v e S t a b i l i t y Based on C e r t i f i c a t i o n . The r a t e of t u r n o v e r s e r v e s t o measure the s t a b i l i t y of a t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l . Where the r a t e of t u r n o v e r i s low the s t a b i l i t y i s h i g h . Hence i t i s p o s s i b l e t o compare, q u a n t i t a t -i v e l y t h e r e l a t i v e s t a b i l i t y of d i f f e r e n t groups of t e a c h e r s . I n c i d e n t a l l y " , a l s o , the method g i v e the average number of s e p a r a t i o n s p e r y e a r , which s e r v e s as a c a r e f u l check on the work of Chapter. IV. TABLE XXI I n c r e a s e i n C e r t i f i c a t e s f r om 1923-39; Number I s s u e d D u r i n g t h e 16 y e a r s ; Excess over E x p a n s i o n and Y e a r l y Rate of Turnover f o r B r i t i s h Columbia. G l a s s of C e r t i f i c a t e Academic 1923-24 I 1938-39 Number of C e r t i f i c a t e s 526 1125 I n c r e a s e 597 A l l Others 2685 5071 T o t a l _3S6_ Average 61 G l a s s of C e r t i f i c a t e No. of Excess of C e r t i f i c a t e s Those I s s u e d i n 16 y e a r s I s s u e d Over I n c r e a s e S e p a r a t i s t s Ave p e r year Reg. of C e r t . Turnover i n P e r c e n t of Ave. Reg. Academic 985 388 24 825 2 0 9^ 10.1% 8.5$ A l l Others T o t a l 5037 4651 291 315 8878 3703 121 T a b l e XXI g i v e s the number of t e a c h e r s a c t i v e l y engaged h o l d i n g Academic and a l s o o t h e r c l a s s e s of c e r t i f i c a t e s f o r the two y e a r s 1923-24 and 1938-39--16 y e a r s a p a r t . The next column g i v e s the i n c r e a s e s f o r the same 16 y e a r s . Knowing th e number of c e r t i f i c a t e s i s s u e d d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d i t i s p o s s -i b l e by s u b t r a c t i o n t o determine t h e excess of t e a c h e r s p r e -p a r e d o v e r and above the numbers r e q u i r e d t o c o v e r e x p a n s i o n . I f we assume f o r arguments sake t h a t a l l these excess t e a c h -e r s e v e n t u a l l y s e c u r e d p o s i t i o n s , i n t h e 16 y e a r s t h i s same number of a c t i v e t e a c h e r s must have r e s i g n e d . Thus the average number of s e p a r a t i o n s and t h e average number of t e a c h e r s o f each c l a s s employed i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c a l c u l a t e t h e p e r c e n t -age y e a r l y r a t e of t u r n o v e r . The b a s i c f a c t s f o r t h i s t a b l e have been t a k e n f rom T a b l e XIV (page 92) and T a b l e XIX (page 114). C e r t a i n i n c i d e n t a l o b s e r v a t i o n s a r i s e a t t h i s p o i n t . T h r e e - f i f t h s of the e x p a n s i o n f o r the l a s t 16 y e a r s has gone t o t h o s e w i t h Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s but t h e y have comprised o n l y o n e - s i x t h of the new t e a c h e r s . The average a n n u a l i n c r e a s e has been 61 t e a c h e r s o f which 37 p o s i t i o n s have been t a k e n by t h o s e w i t h Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s and o n l y 24 by t h e r e -m a i n i n g t e a c h e r s . I f e x p a n s i o n were t o c e a s e , w h i c h appears l i k e l y , and i f t h e r a t i o of c e r t i f i c a t e s by c l a s s e s remained unchanged which I s u n l i k e l y , t h e average number of h o l d e r s of academics which c o u l d be absorbed, by the t e a c h i n g p r o -f e s s i o n would drop f r o m 61 t o 24 w h i l e t h e o t h e r would o n l y d e c l i n e f r o m 315 t o 291, on the b a s i s of the l a s t 16-year 122 a v e r a g e s . The second assumption may not be j u s t i f i a b l e how-e v e r . The average y e a r l y replacement by t h i s method of e s t i m a -t i o n has been a p p r o x i m a t e l y 315 t e a c h e r s as compared t o 306, f o r a n i n e - y e a r p e r i o d , by a p r e v i o u s method (page 79 ) and t h e t o t a l y e a r l y demand, 376 as compared t o 344 (page 8 1 ) . The d i f f e r e n c e s are e a s i l y accounted f o r on t h e assumptions t h a t b o t h the r a t e of t u r n o v e r and expansion were g r e a t e r f r om 1922 t o 1930 than t h e y have been from 1930 t o the present.. The e s s e n t i a l p o i n t a t t h i s s t a g e , however, i s the v e r y marked d i f f e r e n c e i n the r a t e of t u r n o v e r . F o r Academic t e a c h -e r s i t has been l e s s t h a n 3 p e r cent whereas f o r a l l o t h e r t e a c h e r s i t has exceeded 10 p e r cent--(3^- t i m e s as g r e a t ) . I t would seem a v a l i d c o n c l u s i o n t o s t a t e t h a t the h i g h e r t h e c e r t i f i c a t e s t h e s m a l l e r t h e t u r n o v e r o r i n o t h e r words the g r e a t e r t h e s t a b i l i t y of the t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l . I f t h e p r o p o r t i o n of Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s c o n t i n u e s t o i n c r e a s e , as , I t would seem t h a t t h e y s h o u l d , t h e number of s e p a r a t i o n s s h o u l d d e c l i n e w i t h a consequent r e d u c t i o n i n the demand f o r new t e a c h e r s . While t h i s , i n t h e a g g r e g a t e , i s t r u e i t i s not the whole t r u t h . An almost e q u a l l y p o t e n t f a c t o r appears t o be the s a l a r y s c a l e which w i l l now be examined. D. R e l a t i v e S t a b i l i t y Based on S a l a r i e s . T a b l e X X I I shows t h e median y e a r s of e x p e r i e n c e by sex f o r d i f f e r e n t t y p e s of s c h o o l s i n d i f f e r e n t c l a s s e s of d i s t r i c t s . 123 Men i n * c i t y h i g h s c h o o l s have the h i g h e s t r e c o r d of a l l and g e n e r a l l y are e i t h e r e q u a l t o or ahead of women i n a l l o t h e r t y p e s and c l a s s e s of s c h o o l s except t h r e e - - j u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s , c i t y e l e mentary s c h o o l s and one-room r u r a l s c h o o l s . I n t h e s e t h r e e cases t h e r e appears t o be a s i m i l a r cause f o r t h i s r e v e r s a l of p o s i t i o n s as between t h e sexes--namely t h a t men advance to the next type of s c h o o l f a s t e r t h a n women--t h a t i s f r o m j u n i o r t o s e n i o r h i g h , from c i t y elementary t o j u n i o r h i g h and fr o m one-room r u r a l s c h o o l s t o elementary s c h o o l i n d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . One can c o n c l u d e , t h e n , t h a t on the average men spend a l o n g e r time at t e a c h i n g t h a n women—that the r a t e of t u r n o v e r f o r men i s l e s s t h a n f o r women. TABLE X X I I Median Y e a r s of S e r v i c e of a l l Teachers by Sex, D i s t r i c t s and Types of Schools f o r 1935-36. D i s t r i c t H i g h S c h o o l J u n i o r H i g h S u p e r i o r Male Pemale T o t a l Male Female T o t a l Male Fern j T o t a l C i t i e s D i s t r i c t M n n i c i p a l i t i R u r a l D i s -t r i c t s 15 11 es 9 12.5 10 8 14 10.5 8.5 10.5 12 11 7 7 :. 7 •» Too few cases t o make the r e s u l t s r e l i a b l e . E l e m e n t a r y One -room Sc h o o l D i s t r i c t (More th a n one room) Male Female T o t a l Male Vernal e T o t a l C i t i e s 13 14 13.5 D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t i e s ^ 1.5 9.5 10 4.5 4 R u r a l D i s t r i c t s ' 7. 9 7.5 7.5 3.5 T a b l e X X I I a l s o b r i n g s out the f a c t v e r y c l e a r l y t h a t t h e 4. Ibid77~Vol. LXVI, pp.9-13 1936-37 124 l e n g t h of ' s e r v i c e i s d e c i d e d l y i n f l u e n c e d by the c l a s s of d i s t r i c t and t h a t t h i s a p p l i e s t o a l l t y p e s of s c h o o l s and f o r b o t h s e x e s . The u n d e r l y i n g cause; appears t o be the r e -l a t i v e s a l a r y s c a l e s i n each c l a s s of d i s t r i c t . T a b l e X X I I I shows t h e average s a l a r y f o r men and women combined i n each c l a s s of d i s t r i c t and f o r each type of s c h o o l . TABLE X X I I I Average S a l a r i e s by C l a s s e s of D i s t r i c t s and Types of Schools If f o r t h e y e a r 1936-37. D i s t r i c t High S c h o o l J u n i o r H i g h E l e m e n t a r y S u p e r i o r C i t i e s D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t i e s R u r a l D i s t r i c t s #2183 §1558 $1499 #1751 $1435 sl;l424 #1470 11030 =S89.6.# . $970 # I n c l u d i n g one-room s c h o o l s . W i t h i n each t y p e of s c h o o l the h i g h e r t h e average s a l a r y , : the l o n g e r the l e n g t h of s e r v i c e . I t w i l l be n o t e d , however, t h a t i t i s not t h e a b s o l u t e but r e l a t i v e v a l u e s t h a t must be c o n s i d e r e d ; c i t y j u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s w i t h a h i g h e r average s a l a r y f a l l below c i t y e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l s i n p o i n t of y e a r s of s e r v i c e . I n c o n c l u s i o n , t h e r a t e of t u r n o v e r i s a p p a r e n t l y a f f e c t -ed by a t l e a s t t h r e e f a c t o r s - - s e x , c l a s s of c e r t i f i c a t e and 5. I b i d . , pp.23-25 125 r e l a t i v e s a l a r y s c a l e . I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o a s s i g n t o any one the preeminence, a l t h o u g h s a l a r i e s appear t o make a v e r y p r o -nounced d i f f e r e n c e — m o r e so even than sex. I t seems i m p o s s i b l e t o s e p a r a t e t h e f a c t o r s and gauge t h e i r r e l a t i v e f o r c e s . For example c i t y h i g h s c h o o l men have th e s m a l l e s t t u r n o v e r of a l l a c c o r d i n g t o T a b l e X X I I . I n t h i s case t h e y have the h i g h -e s t s a l a r y , t h e h i g h e s t c e r t i f i c a t e and are men and y e t the men i n t h e r u r a l one-room s c h o o l s have th e g r e a t e s t t u r n o v e r , the f a c t t h a t t h e y are men n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g . A g a i n T a b l e XXI would l e a d one t o c o n s l u d e t h a t the c l a s s of c e r t i f i c a t e was e x t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t but i n terms of the median of y e a r s of e x p e r i e n c e (Table X X I I ) c i t y e l e m e n t a r y t e a c h e r s s t a y l o n g e r a t t e a c h i n g ( b o t h men and women) t h a n t e a c h e r s i n j u n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s and f o r women alone t h e i r r e c o r d i s b e t t e r t h a n i n s e n i o r h i g h s c h o o l s and y e t t h e j u n i o r and s e n i o r h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r s have Academic c e r t i f i c a t e s and a l s o h i g h e r s a l a r i e s . I t i s o n l y p o s s i b l e t o r e c o n c i l e these two statements on the assumption t h a t most of the t u r n o v e r i n elementary s c h o o l s e x i s t s i n r u r a l s c h o o l s . G i r l s f r o m Normal secure p o s i t i o n s i n t h e s e s c h o o l s ; t e a c h two or t h r e e y e a r s ; a few move up t o b e t t e r p o s i t i o n s ; but most of them get m a r r i e d . I t seems t h a t t h e s e r u r a l t e a c h e r s w h i c h make up a l i t t l e more th a n one q u a r t e r of the t o t a l t e a c h i n g body cause about one h a l f the r e p l a c e m e n t s . Any changes i n t h e s e f a c t o r s can be expected t o a f f e c t the r a t e of t u r n o v e r and c o n s e q u e n t l y the demand and t h e r e f o r e must be watched and d u l y a p p r a i s e d when e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e needs. 126 CHAPTER VTTT The TJae of t h e Median Years o f Expertanne tr> Determine Turn-o v e r . I t has been s u g g e s t e d t h a t one method t o measure the number of replacements i s t h r o u g h t e a c h e r t e n u r e . The i n v e s t i -g a t o r e x p r e s s e d t e a c h e r t e n u r e i n terms of the median years of s e r v i c e (page 2 1 ) . E x p e r i e n c e i n t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t where the median i s used t h e r e s u l t s are too" h i g h and must g e n e r a l l y be s o . The average replacement by two o t h e r methods has been found t o be an average o f about 310 p e r y e a r (pages 9/ and but by the use of t h e median i t would be a p p r o x i m a t e l y 400. T h i s r e s u l t i s s e c u r e d by d i v i d i n g the t o t a l number of t e a c h -e r s , 4,194, by t h e median y e a r s of s e r v i c e f o r a l l t e a c h e r s (10.5 y e a r s ) . T h i s i s an advance of about 30 p e r cent w h i c h i s f a r too l a r g e an e r r o r . The e r r o r a r i s e s from assuming t h a t the y e a r s of s e r v i c e c l o s e l y f o l l o w a normal d i s t r i b u t i o n . The e v i d e n c e i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n i s r a t h e r d e c i d -e d l y skewed t o t h e r i g h t . As a r e s u l t the median has a lower v a l u e t h a n t h e mean. T h e r e f o r e the median years of s e r v i c e i s l e s s t h a n t h e average or mean ye a r s of s e r v i c e and l e a d s one t o expect a g r e a t e r t u r n o v e r t h a n a c t u a l l y e x i s t s . T a b l e XXIV shows the f o r m i n which the d a t a r e l a t i n g t o the e x p e r i e n c e of t e a c h e r s were p u b l i s h e d . I t can be seen t h a t the i n t e r v a l s are o f d i f f e r e n t l e n g t h s and t h a t t h e r e i s an "open-end" c l a s s a t the bottom. The median as a v a l u e of c e n t r a l tendency i n d i c a t e s t h a t one h a l f the items are below a c e r t a i n v a l u e , the o t h e r h a l f above. I f the d i s t r i b u t i o n were not skewed the median c o u l d be t a k e n as h a v i n g the same v a l u e as the mean. TABLE XXIV C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Teachers by Sex and E x p e r i e n c e i n B r i t i s h Columbia, 1935-56.* C i t i e s ^ H i g h ffuhi©3?# Sui o e r i o r Elementary S c h o o l s ffig l So aools S c h o o l r T o t a l Exper- M. P. •'. [•otal M. P. Tot, M. P. r o t .. M. P. T o t a l i e n c e a t end of y e a r • Less t h a n 1 y r . 1 9 10 1 y r . & under 2 4 7 11 •2 3 5 12 28 40 2 y r s . •I 3 9 12 7 11 18 1 l 17 19 36 3 y r s . n 4 10 6 16 5 5 9 17 26 4 y r s . rt 5 10 5 ' 15 1 4 5 14 13 27 5 y r s . r i 6 11 11 22 4 3 7 7 33 40 6 y r s . it 7 11 8 19 3 4 7 1 l 9 27 36 7 y r s . t i 8 11 7 18 6 3 9 5 42 47 8 y r s . ff 9 18 11 29 9 6 15 18 57 75 9 y r s . ft 10 27 17 44 8 4 12 16 47 63 10 y r s . tt 15 66 36 102 •27 24 51 1 i 80 254 334 15 y r s . n 20 48 27 75 14 13 27 33 170 203 20 y r s . ft 25 38 21 59 4 10 14 23 103 126 25 y r s . tt 30 19 14 33 3 6 9 24 84 108 30 y r s . tt 35 21 7 28 2 3 5 23 55 78 35 y r s . &over 19 19 1 1 12 28 40 U n s p e c i f i e d 242 201 543 95 98 193 1 2 3 317 1010 1327 # S i m i l a r t a b l e are g i v e n f o r M u n i c i p a l D i s t r i c t s and R u r a l D i s t r i c t s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e mean cannot be c a l c u l a t e d i n t h i s example t o t h e 1. I b i d . , p.9 128 n e a r e s t h a l f y e a r , because of the "open-end" c l a s s . And yet t h e mean, not the median i s the i m p o r t a n t measure s i n c e I t s v a l u e i s a f f e c t e d by t h e v a l u e of each I n d i v i d u a l i t e m . Common e x p e r i e n c e and t h e above d a t a t e n d t o support t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t i f a t e a c h e r c o n t i n u e s t o t e a c h p a s t a g i v e n i n i t i a l p e r i o d h i s ( o r her) chances of t e a c h i n g f o r the r e s t of h i s ( o r her) w o r k i n g l i r e a re g r e a t l y enhanced and hence the average number of y e a r s o f s e r v i c e of a l l t e a c h e r s i s h i g h -er t h a n the median v a l u e . I n o t h e r words, i f h a l f the t e a c h e r s have been t e a c h i n g f rom 0 t o 10 y e a r s , the o t h e r h a l f have been t e a c h i n g , hot 'from 10 t o 20 years but from 10 t o 35 or 40 y e a r s . The modal v a l u e i s t h e most common v a l u e . In t h e form i n w h i c h the d a t a are s u p p l i e d i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o determine i t w i t h any degree of a c c u r a c y . I f the f i r s t one-year i n t e r -v a l s are r e d u c e d t o two f i v e - y e a r i n t e r v a l s t o c o r r e s p o n d t o the r e m a i n i n g s i x , t h e c l a s s i n t e r v a l s i s t o o l a r g e t o show up t h e modal group s a t i s f a c t o r i l y . A t h r o e - y e a r i n t e r v a l would g i v e f rom 12 t o 14 c l a s s e s which would b r i n g out t h i s meansure much b e t t e r . T a b l e XXV, c o n s t r u c t e d f r o m d a t a c o l l e c t e d by the Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s t h r o u g h the Department of Ed-u c a t i o n f o r B r i t i s h Columbia shows the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the t e a c h e r s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e f o r the t h r e e c l a s s e s of d i s t r i c t s and f o r them combined. There are seven I n t e r v a l s of f i v e y e a r s each and on t h a t i s I n d e t e r m i n a t e . The medians and modes (unweighted) are a l s o g i v e n f o r t h e sake of com-129 p a r i s o n . The medians have been c a l c u l a t e d by I n t e r p o l a t i o n and t h e s e a r i t h m e t i c a l v a l u e s c o r r e c t e d - - s i n c e y e a r s of e x p e r i e n c e u s u a l l y go by i n t e r v a l s of h a l f a y e a r - - t o the n e a r e s t h a l f y e a r . The modes are t a k e n as t h e c e n t r a l v a l u e of each modal group. F i g u r e 8 shows the same d a t a . By means of column diagrams i t i s p o s s i b l e t o see t h e modal group and t o observe t o what e x t e n t each d i s t r i b u t i o n i s skewed towards a l o n g e r l e n g t h of s e r v i c e . The f i v e - y e a r i n t e r v a l s are v e r y o b v i o u s l y u n s a t i s f a c t o r y as a means of c l a s s i f y i n g t e a c h e r s i n r u r a l s c h o o l s . M i l l s ' s t a t e s t h a t I n a d i s t r i b u t i o n which d e p a r t s from asymmetry t h e mode, median and mean are drawn a p a r t . " I f the degree of asymmetry i s o n l y moderate t h e t h r e e p o i n t s have a f a i r l y c o n s t a n t r e l a t i o n . The mode and mean l i e f a r t h -e s t a p a r t , w i t h the median one t h i r d of the d i s t a n c e , from the mean towards the mode." Assuming i n t h i s case t h a t t h e r e i s o n l y a moderate degree of asymmetry, i f the mode, f o r the p r o v i n c e as a whole i s 7.5, the median 10.5, t h e n the mean s h o u l d be 12. T h i s would mean t h a t the average number of years of e x p e r i e n c e of a l l t e a c h e r s i n B r i t i s h Columbia i s 12.. On t h a t b a s i s i t _ 2. F.>P. M i l l s , S t a t i s t i c a l Methods, p. 130, New Y o r k , Henry H o l t and Company, 1936 ~ • •• Y/ear® of S e r v i c e * E i g . 8 * Column Diagram;; D i s t r i b u t i o n ' - o f Years of Experience fo r Teachers i n C i t i e s , , D i s t r i c t . . M u n i c i p a l i t i e s . , S u r a l D i s t r i c t s and f o r the E n t i r e Province f o r the Year 1935.-36. (Class I n t e r v a l ^yy.eaos^) 131 TABLE XXV C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Teachers by Years of E x p e r i e n c e , f o r C i t i e s , D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t i e s , R u r a l D i s t r i c t s and the P r o v i n c e by I n t e r v a l s of 5 y e a r s , f o r t h e Year 1 9 3 5 - 3 6 . 4 I n t e r v a l s F r e q u e n c i e s C i t i e s D i s t r i c t R u r a l E n t i r e N u n i c i p a l l t i e s D i s t r i c t s P r o v i n c e Under 5 y e a r s 227 158 505 890 5 y r s . & under 10 444 199 359 1002 10 y r s . " " 15 488 170 143 801 . 15 y r s . " 20 305 51 47 403 20 y r s . " 25 199 52 17 268 25 y r s . " 30 150 31 12 193 30 y r s . " 35 111 15 9 135 35 yrs.& over 60 6 7 73 Medians ( y e a r s ) 14 10 6 10.5 Modes ( y e a r s ) 12.5 7.5 2 © 5 7.5 would t a k e 349 new t e a c h e r s each y e a r t o r e p l a c e t h e p r e s e n t 4,194 t e a c h e r s i n 12 y e a r s , not c o n s i d e r i n g any p o s s i b l e ex-p a n s i o n or c o n t r a c t i o n . T h i s v a l u e i s s t i l l somewhat to o h i g h because t h e w e i g h t e d mode by c a l c u l a t i o n i s found t o be 7.39 r a t h e r t h a n 7.5 and t h i s would cause the mean t o i n c r e a s e i n v a l u e . I n c o n c l u s i o n , w h i l e the median may be a v e r y u s e f u l and c o n v e n i e n t measure f o r d e t e r m i n i n g any changes i n the c h a r a c t -e r of a t e a c h i n g body from y e a r t o y e a r or f o r making com-p a r i s o n s as between groups, i t i s not s a t i s f a c t o r y as a method of e s t i m a t i n g t h e r a t e of t u r n o v e r . 3. Annual Reports o f P u b l i c Schools of B r i t i s h Columbia, l o o , c i t . (adapted) CHAPTER IX F i n d i n g s and ReeommendatIons. A. A Summarization of the F i n d i n g s . The more i m p o r t a n t c o n c l u s i o n s can now he b r i e f l y out-l i n e d as f o l l o w s : (1) A l l the ev i d e n c e p o i n t s t o t h e f a c t t h a t the elementary s c h o o l attendance has r e a c h e d i t s " c e i l i n g " and w h i l e i t may Waver tip and down s l i g h t l y f o r a few more years i t appears doomed t o b e g i n , a d e c l i n e e v e n t u a l l y . (2) A l t h o u g h h i g h s c h o o l enrolment has had an u n i n t e r r u p t e d growth and so a p p a r e n t l y has not reached the l i m i t of i t s upward t r e n d , s i n c e i t i s t i e d t o t h e ele m e n t a r y s c h o o l a t t e n d a n c e , i t t o o must r e a c h a l e v e l l i n g - o f f p e r i o d marked by s m a l l g a i n s and l o s s e s f o l l o w e d by t h e I n e v i t a b l e d e c l i n e . I f an average of 13,000 p u p i l s e n t e r e d Grade I , a maximum of 30,000 t o 35,000 p u p i l s s h o u l d be found i n the h i g h s c h o o l s . As a t p r e s e n t t h e r e a re about 23,000, i t i s p o s s i b l e and a l s o p r o b a b l e t h a t t h e h i g h s c h o o l enrolment w i l l c o n t i n u e f o r some y e a r s t o i n c r e a s e but w i l l l a t e r t a p e r o f f around 30,000 as a maximum. The war w i l l p r o b a b l y cause the i n c r e a s e t o be s m a l l f o r a few y e a r s . (5) There i s e v e r y p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t the t o t a l s c h o o l p o p u l a -t i o n may c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e s l i g h t l y , though not m a t e r i a l l y , f o r a few y e a r s y e t . (4) The number of p u p i l s p e r t e a c h e r has become f a i r l y w e l l s t a n d a r d i z e d . (5) The e f f e c t s of s h i f t s of p o p u l a t i o n as between p r o v i n c e s 133 may d i s t u r b the c o n c l u s i o n s t o some e x t e n t but i t i s d o u b t f u l i f i m m i g r a t i o n w i l l a g a i n be a f a c t o r i n p o p u l a t i o n growth, at l e a s t not i n t h e near f u t u r e . (6) A l l t h i s sums, up t o the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t the demand f o r t e a c h e r s due t o expansion i s g o i n g t o be n e g l i g i b l e hence-f o r t h . (7) The demand f o r new t e a c h e r s w i l l thus c o n s i s t almost e n t i r e l y of replacements due t o v a c a n c i e s c r e a t e d by o l d age, d e a t h , m a r r i a g e and o t h e r causes. (8) While the number thus r e t i r i n g v a r i e s from year t o y e a r , n e v e r t h e l e s s t h e r e i s a f a i r l y u n i f o r m t endency which i s most s e r i o u s l y d i s t u r b e d by economic c o n d i t i o n s . (9) Replacements a l o n e , f o r t h e l a s t t e n y e a r s have averaged about 306 t e a c h e r s p e r y e a r which r e p r e s e n t s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 7^ p e r ' c e n t o f t h e t o t a l number of p o s i t i o n s . (10) Replacements p l u s e x p a n s i o n have averaged 344 t e a c h e r s p e r y e a r f o r t h e same p e r i o d - - a b o u t 8^ p e r c e n t . (11) The number of men t e a c h e r s i s i n c r e a s i n g a c t u a l l y and r e l a t i v e l y , h a v i n g advanced f r o m one q u a r t e r t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y two f i f t h s of t h e t o t a l number of t e a c h e r s . I n the meantime, of c o u r s e , t h e number o f women t e a c h e r s i s d e c l i n i n g . (12) There i s an i n c r e a s e i n the p r o p o r t i o n of h i g h e r c e r t i f i c a t e s . (13) The r a t e s of t u r n o v e r are most d e c i d e d l y a f f e c t e d by the t y p e of community i n w h i c h the s c h o o l s are s i t u a t e d - - c i t i e s h a v i n g the s m a l l e s t , and one-room r u r a l s c h o o l s the l a r g e s t , t e a c h e r t u r n o v e r . 154 (14) The t u r n o v e r i s a l s o a f f e c t e d by economic c o n d i t i o n s and t h e r e f o r e v a r i e s from y e a r t o y e a r - - t h e range of replacements f o r t h e l a s t t e n years has been between a p p r o x i m a t e l y 6 p er cent and 9 p e r c e n t . (15) About 1954 t h e r e was a l a r g e and em b a r r a s s i n g s u r p l u s of t e a c h e r s but because o f reduced attendance at the normal s c h o o l s f o r the l a s t f i v e y e ars t h e r e are now v e r y few un-employed t e a c h e r s . (16) The war, i f h i s t o r y r e p e a t s I t s e l f , w i l l b r i n g about a r e d u c t i o n i n the number of men t e a c h e r s and p r o b a b l y an acute s h o r t a g e of a l l t e a c h e r s w i t h a consequent l o w e r i n g of the e d u c a t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s . B. Recommendations. (1) One can q u i t e h o n e s t l y and s i n c e r e l y recommend the adop-t i o n of some scheme of c o n t r o l by which s u p p l y and demand f o r t e a c h e r s can be brought i n t o b a l a n c e . B u s i n e s s e s f i n d i t not o n l y p r a c t i c a l but e s s e n t i a l t o t h e i r v e r y e x i s t e n c e t o e s t i m a t e t h e f u t u r e demand and r e g u l a t e t h e s u p p l y a c c o r d i n g l y . New j e r s e y , w i t h many more d i f f i c u l t i e s t o overcome th a n B r i t i s h Columbia would have, has p r a c t i s e d c o n t r o l f o r t h i r t e e n y e a r s and a p p a r e n t l y has no i n t e n t i o n of abandoning i t . I t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o suppose t h a t prompt a c t i o n based on a knowledge of t h e t r u e s i t u a t i o n c o u l d have a v e r t e d the l a r g e s u r p l u s of t e a c h e r s of a few ye a r s ago and a l s o have a v o i d e d a p r o b a b l e s c a r c i t y now. The s u g g e s t i o n , t h e n , e s s e n t i a l l y i s , t h a t by t h e use o f adequate r e c o r d s we keep o u r s e l v e s 136 w e l l i n f o r m e d i n a l l measurable phases of the e d u c a t i o n a l system and so a v o i d u n n e c e s s a r y m i s t a k e s and g l a r i n g e r r o r s of judgment. T h i s a p p l i e s not o n l y t o m a t t e r s r e l a t i n g t o t h e t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l but t o f u t u r e s c h o o l accommodation and o t h e r k i n d r e d problems. No one can v i s u a l i z e a l l t h e r a m i f i c a t i o n s , a l l t h e m o d i f i c a t i o n s t h a t any p r e - c o n c e i v e d p l a n may l e a d t o or have t o undergo. Only by a c t u a l e x p e r i e n c e w i t h c o n c r e t e problems as t h e y a r i s e can any g e n e r a l scheme be made t o conform t o t h a t which i s most d e s i r a b l e and u s e f u l . Hence the f o l l o w i n g recommendations as to p r o c e d u r e are o n l y t o be a c c e p t e d as a suggested w o r k i n g b a s i s t o be expanded or a l t e r -ed as a c t u a l c o n d i t i o n s i n d i c a t e . At p r e s e n t adequate r e c o r d s of, t h e t e a c h i n g p e r s o n n e l are not k e p t . The d u a l system of c o n t r o l p r a c t i s e d I n B r i t i s h Columbia makes i t d i f f i c u l t t o m a i n t a i n them. The Department of E d u c a t i o n because of t h e p r e s s u r e of time and because of t h e f a c t t h a t once i t has i s s u e d a c e r t i f i c a t e the h o l d e r passes out o f i t s hands t o come under th e c o n t r o l of s c h o o l boards b o t h t o h i r e and d i s m i s s , has f o u n d i t almost imposs-i b l e t o m a i n t a i n any semblance of c o n t a c t w i t h the t e a c h i n g body. O b v i o u s l y one of the f i r s t s t e p s would be t o e l i m i n a t e t h e s e o b s t a c l e s . I n t h i s c o n n e c t i o n i t s h o u l d be s t a t e d t h a t o n l y as s a t i s f a c t o r y r e c o r d s accumulate can t h e most s u i t a b l e means of e s t i m a t i o n and c o n t r o l be e v o l v e d . (2) T h e r e f o r e , t h e second recommendation i s t h a t f o r t h w i t h t h e r e s h o u l d be a complete r e r e g i s t r a t i o n o f a l l t e a c h e r s l"3fc t h i s t o i n c l u d e those who are employed i n t e a c h i n g or on l e a v e of absence and i n as f a r as p o s s i b l e those who are unemployed or o t h e r w i s e engaged. T h i s r e g i s t r a t i o n s h o u l d i n -c l u d e a l l p e r t i n e n t i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g each t e a c h e r - - ( 1 ) p e r s o n a l i t e m s , such as sex, date and p l a c e of b i r t h , m a r r i e d or s i n g l e ; (2) s c h o l a s t i c r e c o r d (3) p r o f e s s i o n a l r e c o r d (4) c l a s s c e r t i f i c a t i o n and major s u b j e c t s (5) e x t r a - c u r r i -c u l a r i n t e r e s t s and a b i l i t i e s (6) c h a r a c t e r r a t i n g — t o mention o n l y t h e most i m p o r t a n t . I t might be most convenient i n the l o n g r u n t o employ a c a r d i n d e x system s u i t a b l e f o r use w i t h the H o l l e r i t h t a b u l a t i n g machine. Each c a r d s h o u l d be kept up t o date and p l a c e d i n one of f o u r groups. (1) The f i r s t group i s t o r e p r e s e n t amployed t e a c h e r s (2) the second group, t e a c h -e r s on l e a v e of absence w i t h reasons (3) the t h i r d group t h e t e a c h e r s who d e s i r e t o t e a c h but who are a t p r e s e n t temporar-- i l y unemployed or o t h e r w i s e engaged and l a s t l y t h e t e a c h e r s who have withdrawn f r o m the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n w i t h reasons t h e r e f o r e . (3) C e r t a i n changes i n t h e r e g u l a t i o n s g o v e r n i n g t e a c h e r s s h o u l d be made. Those who are permanently, so f a r as they can see, w i t h d r a w i n g f r o m t h e p r o f e s s i o n s h o u l d s u r r e n d e r t h e i r c e r t i f i c a t e b e f o r e r e c e i v i n g p e n s i o n r e f u n d s . T h i s c e r t i f i c a t e would be kept by the Department of E d u c a t i o n t o be redeemed at a l a t e r d a t e , i f n e c e s s a r y , by making a p p l i c a t i o n and a t t e n d -i n g a r e f r e s h e r c o u r s e . I f a s a t i s f a c t o r y s t a n d i n g i s o b t a i n -ed and i f t h e t e a c h e r can be p l a c e d a t once w i t h o u t s e r i o u s l y i n t e r f e r i n g w i t h t h e normal s u p p l y of t e a c h e r s t h e t e a c h e r ". • 1317 may have h i s o r her c e r t i f i c a t e r e i n s t a t e d — o t h e r w i s e t h e r e t u r n i n g t e a c h e r must a w a i t a l a t e r d a te. T h i s arrangement would r e t a i n some of the advantages o f a l i f e c e r t i f i c a t e and y e t e l i m i n a t e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of h a v i n g one's c a l c u l a t i o n s c o m p l e t e l y upset by a sudden i n r u s h of r e t u r n i n g t e a c h e r s . Those t e a c h e r s i n v o l v e d m e r e l y i n an exchange of p o s i t i o n s would not need t o I n d i c a t e the exchange. They would c o n s i s t of e s s e n t i a l l y s i m i l a r t y p e s and i n no way a f f e c t the amount or k i n d of the demand. (4) Those g o i n g on l e a v e of absence would have t o secure p e r -m i s s i o n b o t h from t h e i r S c h o o l B o a r d and the Department of E d u c a t i o n so t h a t i n any g i v e n y e a r S u f f i c i e n t e x t r a t e a c h e r s would be on hand t o cov e r the number on l e a v e . The i n a u g u r a t i o n o f these recommendations would make i t p o s s i b l e t o commence some scheme of c o n t r o l . Knowing t h e number of t e a c h e r s r e t i r i n g each y e a r on p e n s i o n , w e l l i n advance, and from p a s t r e c o r d s e s t i m a t i n g the number of t e a c h e r s who l e a v e f o r o t h e r r e a s o n s , i t Is p o s s i b l e t o approximate t h e f u t u r e demand one, two or more years I n advance. I n the o c c a s i o n a l y e a r s when the demand was u n d e r e s t i m a t -ed some of t h o s e about t o go on p e n s i o n might e a s i l y be p e r -suaded t o c o n t i n u e f o r a y e a r t o b r i d g e the gap. I n a d d i t i o n a s m a l l r e s e r v o i r of t e a c h e r s might be m a i n t a i n e d by r e t a i n -i n g a few o f each y e a r ' s c l a s s t o a c t as s u b s t i t u t e s , on the u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t t h e y would be g i v e n p r i o r i t y i n the f o l l o w -i n g y e a r ^ o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a system of cadet t e a c h e r s 138 . might he used s u c c e s s f u l l y t o i r o n out the y e a r - t o - y e a r f l u c t u a t i o n s . Some means s h o u l d be d e v i s e d i n any case t o r e t a i n any s u r p l u s of a g i v e n y e a r i n a c t i v e c o n t a c t w i t h t h e i r chosen work. To a s s i s t f u r t h e r i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e demand i t would be n e c e s s a r y t o a n t i c i p a t e the attendance f o r a year or two i n advance. While one cannot hope f o r any g r e a t p r e c i s i o n , , ap e x a m i n a t i o n of the e n t i r e s c h o o l p o p u l a t i o n by grades must i n d i c a t e f a i r l y c l o s e l y the attendance i n the next h i g h e r grades t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r because the percentage of promotions and l o s s e s .are f a i r l y c o n s t a n t . I f t h e r e i s n e i t h e r immigra-t i o n or e m i g r a t i o n t h e b e g i n n i n g c l a s s must be governed by t h e number of b i r t h s i n p r e v i o u s y e a r s . Indeed the number of b i r t h s s e r v e s as a r a t h e r good barometer f o r d e t e r m i n i n g any e x p a n s i o n or c o n t r a c t i o n , t h a t might o c c u r some y e a r s i n the f u t u r e , g i v i n g s u f f i c i e n t time t o make ample p r e p a r a t i o n f o r t h e i n d i c a t e d changes. L a s t l y c u r r e n t b u s i n e s s , a c t i v i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y the number of v a c a n t p o s i t i o n s o c c u r r i n g i n o t h e r f i e l d s o f work, serve s a i d i n c o r r e c t i n g t h e a n t i c i p a t e d demand. The number of w i t h -drawals f o r m a r r i a g e or t o e n t e r o t h e r types of work i s de-c i d e d l y a f f e c t e d by t h e economic f a c t o r . As economic changes precede any e f f e c t t h e y may have i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c o r r e c t the demand e s t i m a t e some time i n advance of i t s r e a l i z a t i o n - -u s u a l l y i n time t o make the n e c e s s a r y adjustments i n the s u p p l y . What s t e p s s h o u l d be t a k e n t o r e g u l a t e the s u p p l y are 1®9 not q u i t e so e a s i l y seen. I f the number of a p p l i c a n t s f o r a d m i s s i o n t o the t e a c h i n g p r o f e s s i o n are i n excess of the need, some system of s e l e c t i o n s h o u l d be adopted by which t h e number a t t e n d i n g i s l i m i t e d . I f on the o t h e r hand, the number i s l e s s t h a n i s r e q u i r e d , as might happen, i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o say what proce d u r e s h o u l d be f o l l o w e d . P r o b a b l y i f can-d i d a t e s knew t h e y were r e a s o n a b l y sure of s a t i s f a c t o r y p o s i t i o n s , p r o v i d e d t h e y met the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d s , t h e r e would be no r e l u c t a n c e t o undergo the c o s t , i n time and money, i n v o l v e d i n p r e p a r a t i o n . I n c o n c l u s i o n , commerce i s s u c c e s s f u l i n so f a r as i t e s t i m a t e s demand and r e g u l a t e s s u p p l y a c c o r d i n g l y . I n e s t i m a t -i n g t h i s demand as many f a c t o r s as p o s s i b l e b e a r i n g upon the problem are. c o n s i d e r e d . I t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o b e l i e v e t h a t s i m i l a r methods s h o u l d and c o u l d be s u c c e s s f u l i n e d u c a t i o n , and t h a t w h i l e these would e n t a i l a c e r t a i n amount of work, t h e s a v i n g t o p r o s p e c t i v e t e a c h e r s , p r e s e n t t e a c h e r s and s o c i e t y g e n e r a l l y would pay f o r the c o s t many tim e s over. I f the p r e s e n t I n v e s t i g a t i o n has succeeded i n b r i n g i n g t h e problem t o the f o r e and i n some measure l a y i n g the f o u n d a t i o n s f o r the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of some r e g u l a t o r y scheme, i t w i l l not have been e n t i r e l y w i t h o u t v a l u e . BIBLIOGRAPHY A. Source M a t e r i a l . Annual Report of the P u b l i c S c h o o l s of B r i t i s h Columbia. V i c t o r i a , Department "of Educa^TonT" : Canada Ye a r Book, 1954-55. Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1935, pp. x l 1235 T e n t h Annual R e p o r t , Teachers' P e n s i o n A c t . , V i c t o r i a , 1939, pp. 1 4 . : " ' P r i v a t e L e t t e r s : A s s i s t a n t R e g i s t r a r , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver, November 22, 1939. " D i s t r i b u t i o n of Teacher T r a i n i n g Graduates by Major S u b j e c t s R e g i s t r a r of V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s , V i c t o r i a , December 19, 1938. ^Number of b i r t h s and age d i s t r i b u t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia." S u p e r i n t e n d e n t of E d u c a t i o n , V i c t o r i a , December 15, 1938. " D i s t r i b u t i o n of p u p i l s I n h i g h s c h o o l s by s u b j e c t s t a k e n . " B. R e f e r e n c e s . Anderson, Dewey and Rhode, E l l i s G. "Troublesome S i t u a t i o n i n C a l i f o r n i a , " N a t i o n ' s S c h o o l s , X V I I , ( F e b r u a r y 1936), pp. 34-35. "Attendance I n c r e a s e " , Vancouver D a l l y P r o v i n c e , Vancouver, October 6, 1939. " B i r t h - R a t e " . E n c y c l o p a e d i a B r i t a n n i c a , p. 652, 14 ed. V o l . I l l , ' 1937. ' " C i t y ' s S c h o o l s Get I c e P l a n t s . " Vancouver D a i l y P r o v i n c e , Vancouver, September 12, 1939~i ~ "A C o u n t i n g of Heads." Vancouver D a i l y P r o v i n c e , Vancouver, October 4, 1939. Douglas, P a u l H. "Labor T u r n o v e r . " E n c y c l o p a e d i a of S o c i a l S e r v i c e s , pp. 709-713, M a c m i l l a n , V I I I , .(1938) E l l a s s e n , R. H. and Anderson B.W."Supply of Teachers and the Demand" E d u c a t i o n Research B u l l e t i n , IX,(November 5, 1930) pp. 437-4"Y3 G r a n t , A. and Cowley, W. H. "Technique f o r A n a l y z i n g the Supply and Demand f o r E d u c a t i o n a l Workers." S c h o o l and S o c i e t y , XXIX, (May 11, 1929) pp.618-620. H e l t o n , Roy. "Old P e o p l e : A R i s i n g N a t i o n a l Problem." Reader's D i g e s t . XXXV, No. 211, (November 1939), p.30. H u f f a k e r , C. L. Teacher Supply and Demand i n Oregon. U n i v e r s i t y or Oregon P u b l i c a t i o n V o l . I I , No. 5 Eugene. U n i v e r s i t y of Oregon (January 1931) "Lack of Teachers i n England and Wales ( C e r t i f i c a t e d ) " . Times E d u c a t i o n a l Supplement, 783, (May 3, 1930) p.199 Manual of t h e Sch o o l Law f o r B r i t i s h Columbia, V i c t o r i a , S e c t i o n 145, (1937) M i l l s , P. C. S t a t i s t i c a l Methods, p. 130. New Y o r k , Henry H o l t and" Company, 1936"; " O c c u p a t i o n a l Outlook f o r E l e m e n t a r y S c h o o l s . " Elementary S c h o o l J o u r n a l , XXXIX, (December, 1938) p. 250. P a r s o n s , Rhey Boyd. "Study of the R e l a t i o n of Supply of Teachers t o t h e Demand f o r Teachers." Elementary S c h o o l J o u r n a l , XXXVI, (October, 1935) pp. 97-104 P o p u l a t i o n Trends and T h e i r E d u c a t i o n a l I m p l i c a t i o n s , pp. 33-34 Washington: N a t i o n a l SducatTon A s s o c i a t i o n XTTTTo. 1, (January 1938) P r i n c i p a l , Vancouver Normal S c h o o l , P r i v a t e L e t t e r , A p r i l 19, 1940. " R e g u l a t i o n s f o r A d m i s s i o n t o t h e Normal S c h o o l s , B r i t i s h Columbia, 1940." S a l a r i e s and Q u a l i f i c a t i o n s o f Canadian Teachers, pp. 2-3. Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , r937T S t e r n s , F r e d H. "New S i g n p o s t s f o r I n d u s t r y . " B a r r o n ' s , The N a t i o n a l F i n a n c i a l Weekly, XX No. 9,"(February 26, 1940) p. 3 : — "Summary and In t e r p r e t a t i o n ' , ' U n i t e d S t a t e s O f f i c e of E d u c a t i o n , B u l l e t i n 1933, No. 10. V o l . V I , N a t i o n a l Survey of E d u c a t i o n of Teac h e r s , Washington, Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1935, pp. x i i i 4-2-53 S u p e r a n n u a t i o n Commissioner, V i c t o r i a , P r i v a t e L e t t e r , A p r i l 22, 1940. "Percentage of Refunds g o i n g t o Women Teachers. S u p p l y and Demand I n the P r o f e s s i o n s i n Canada, Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , 1937" pp.56 "Teachers P l a n Pensions Law" Vancouver D a l l y P r o v i n c e September 26, 1939. Tousend, M. E r n e s t . "Teachers: Supply and Demand--To-days S i t u a t i o n and the Problem of P r e d i c t i o n . " Occupations, X I V , ( O c t o b e r , 1935) pp.21-25. ~ U m s t a t t e l , J . E. "improved O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r Teachers--E d u c a t i o n Graduates." E d u c a t i o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and S u p e r i n t e n d e n c e , X X I I (November, 1936) pp.6 1 9 - 6 2 4 . "Unemployed Teachers i n E n g l a n d " Times E d u c a t i o n a l Supplement, 1087 ( F e b r u a r y 29, 1936) p.77" 

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