UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Soviet hydroelectricity industry Bater, James Harvey 1965

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THE SOVIET HYDROELECTRICITT INDUSTRY by JAMES HARVEY BATER B.A., UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1963 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the Department e f Geography We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the required standard In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r -m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . , I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i -c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f Geography  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date September 1 7 1 1 9 6 $ ABSTRACT Hydroelectric power has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been the object of much p u b l i c i t y i n the Soviet Union, yet few facts are available regarding the s i g n i f i c a n c e of hydro to the e l e c t r i c i t y industry on a n a t i o n a l , and e s p e c i a l l y on a r e g i o n a l , basis. This thesis seeks to c l a r i f y the s i t u a t i o n i n determining the s i g n i f i c a n c e of Soviet hydro potential as well as e x i s t i n g hydro capacity on both n a t i o n a l and regional l e v e l s . In so doing a system of regions based on power networks has been used and f o r these regions t o t a l i n s t a l l e d generating capacities have been calcu-lated so as to provide a basis f o r quantitative ranking. This study i s not concerned simply with the generation of e l e c t r i c i t y , but with estimating absolute size and type of regional i n s t a l l e d capacity and generation, together with the heretofore neglected aspect of consumption. A different approach to evaluating the importance of consumers of e l e c t r i c i t y i s advocated, one i n which load factor plays an important r o l e and required KW capacity to meet a p a r t i c u l a r demand constitutes the prime c r i t e r i o n . The r e s u l t has been to emphasize the s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n s i n comple-mentary aspects of the Soviet e l e c t r i c i t y industry. I t was found that the concepts most frequently used i n assessing Soviet hydro p o t e n t i a l have c e r t a i n l i m i t a t i o n s , the most important being a neglect of r e l a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n . By con-sidering the d i s t r i b u t i o n of remaining prospective dam s i t e s i n terms of "economically a c c e s s i b i l i t y , " i t has been possible to reduce the fi g u r e f o r Soviet hydro potential by almost one-half. While i t has been shown that there has been a movement eastward and therefore greater correlation between hydro capacity and hydro potential at present, including hydro capacity currently being i n s t a l l e d , almost a t h i r d of the "economically accessible" hydro p o t e n t i a l i s now u t i l i z e d . For many years there has been concern over meeting system peak load demand economically and i n this context hydro capacity i n many regions has assumed the function of meeting peak load demand, e s p e c i a l l y during the winter months. The Central Siberian region has not as yet realized the f u l l benefit of the large scale projects, both hydro and thermal, thus f a r undertaken and at present i s not characterized by low cost e l e c t r i c i t y . A decreasing average cost can be expected during the next few years. While t r a d i t i o n a l l y viewed as a source region of e l e c t r i c i t y i t has been determined that a pos-sible export of 15-20 percent of t o t a l r e g ional generation would have only a limited impact i f exported to European Russia. I t can be expected that t h i s region w i l l prove to be a t t r a c t i v e i n the l o c a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y intensive industry. I t i s the con-census here also that large scale hydro construction w i l l con-tinue, but at a slower pace. The demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i n Central Siberia i s not yet characterized by any p a r t i c u l a r industry or sector. In the i v future aluminum production w i l l constitute an important share of t o t a l demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i n t h i s region. The one feature common to the four regions of European Russia i s a dependence to a greater or lesser degree on external sources of energy f o r the generation of e l e c t r i c i t y . While em-phasis has been placed on the u t i l i z a t i o n of l o c a l energy resources, insofar as hydro i s concerned, l i t t l e can be expected as over 80 percent of potential has now been u t i l i z e d . To date the Urals and Center-Volga have experienced the most serious power shortages, due p r i m a r i l y to the high degree of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and heavy concentration of urban population respectively. The South i n contrast does not appear to be i n the same s i t u a t i o n , the r e s u l t both of i t s broader energy resource base and a more d i v e r s i f i e d demand. The Northwest region while scheduled to be interconnected with the U n i f i e d European Power Network, lacks any distinguishing feature i n i t s e l e c t r i c i t y industry and w i l l remain of peripheral importance. Within what have been referred to as the Peripheral Regions there exists considerable "economically accessible" hydro poten-t i a l . However, much of this i s l i k e l y to remain undeveloped f o r many years to come, especially i n the Far East. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, while hydro has t r a d i t i o n a l l y provided the bulk of e l e c t r i c i t y , i n recent years gas-fired thermal stations have made s t r i k i n g inroads. In the Caucasus limited gas reserves w i l l of necessity force the region to look to external sources i f t h i s trend i s to continue. This i s not a problem i n Central Asia where there exists extensive gas reserves. Of the remaining regions, Northeast Kazakhstan and Murmansk, only the former scheduled to assume s i g n i f i c a n c e on the national l e v e l . V i : . THE SOVIET HYDROELECTRICITY INDUSTRY TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I. THE SOVIET SCENE IN PERSPECTIVE 1 The Scope of the Study 4 Functional Regions 7 Source Material 10 References 12 I I . HYDRO POWER IN THE SOVIET UNION 14 The Concept of Hydro P o t e n t i a l 14 Hydro as Peaking Capacity 16 The Prime Cost of Hydro e l e c t r i c i t y 2 4 References 28 II I . THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY 1920—1965 32 The E l e c t r i c i t y Industry—Scale, Ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and D i s t r i b u t i o n 33 The GOELRO and the Five Year Plans 39 E a r l y Soviet Developments 41 Post-War P o l i c i e s . . . 46 References 54 IV. ELECTRIC POWER IN CENTRAL SIBERIA, POTENTIAL AND PROBLEMS 60 Hydro Potential , . . 62 v i i CHAPTER PAGE I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y 67 Hydro C a p a c i t y 67 B r a t s k and K u y b y s h e v — A C o n t r a s t i n P h y s i c a l Geography . . . . 70 Recent Hydro Developments . . . . . . . . . 76 Thermal C a p a c i t y . 78 Nazarovo and Cherepets • 80 Trends i n F u e l Consumption . . . . . . . . 84 The M a r k e t f o r E l e c t r i c i t y 88 Summary 97 R e f e r e n c e s 98 ¥. EUROPEAN RUSSIA 106 Hydro P o t e n t i a l 108 The C e n t e r - V o l g a Region I l l The U r a l R e g i o n 119 The S o u t h Region 122 The Northwest R e g i o n 127 The M a r k e t f o r E l e c t r i c i t y i n European R u s s i a 131 Summary 13 5 R e f e r e n c e s . . . . . 137 V I . THE PERIPHERAL REGIONS 144 Hydro P o t e n t i a l , 144 The F a r E a s t 144 v i i i CHAPTER PAGE C e n t r a l A s i a 146 The Caucasus 147 The Caucasus 148 The C e n t r a l A s i a n Region 154 The N o r t h e a s t K a z a k h s t a n Region 157 The F a r E a s t R e g i o n 160 The Murmansk R e g i o n 162 The M a r k e t f o r E l e c t r i c i t y 162 Summary 164 R e f e r e n c e s 166 V I I . CONCLUSIONS 172 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and S p a t i a l P a t t e r n 172 H y d r o — P o t e n t i a l and P r o s p e c t s ISO C e n t r a l S i b e r i a 182 R e f e r e n c e s 188 BIBLIOGRAPHY 190 APPENDIX A The D e r i v a t i o n o f Prime C o s t o f H y d r o e l e c t r i c Power i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n 206 APPENDIX B The Market f o r E l e c t r i c i t y i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . 211 APPENDIX C E s t i m a t e s o f R e g i o n a l I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y 1962 . 230 CHAPTER PAGE APPENDIX D T o t a l I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y and P r o d u c t i o n o f E l e c t r i c Power 2 4 3 LIST OF TABLES X TABLE PAGE I. Consumption of E l e c t r i c i t y , Soviet Union—United States 5 II. Organization of Soviet Electric Power Industry 23 III. Generating Capacity by Type, Selected Years 33 IV. Percent Generation of Ele c t r i c i t y by Type of Fuel, Thermal Power Stations (TETS, KES, GRES) 37 V. Share of Total Natural Gas and O i l Production . Used as Fuel in Power Stations . 40 VI. Planned and Actual Expansion of Installed Capacity by Five Year Plan 48 VII. Siberian Hydro Resources 63 VIII. Generation of El e c t r i c Power BKWH, Share of National Total 68 IX. Regional Capacity by Type 69 X. Power and Economic Characteristics of Bratsk and Kuybyshev Hydroelectric Stations . . . . 74 XI. Technical and Economic Characteristics Siberian Hydro Power Stations 79 XII. Technical and Economic Characteristics of Nazarovo and Cherepets Thermal Plants . . 82 x i TABLE PAGE XIII. The Cost of Producing One Ton of Coal European Russia, South S i b e r i a 85 XIV. Estimated Consumption of E l e c t r i c Power— Central S i b e r i a , January 1965 91 XV. Estimated Consumption of E l e c t r i c Power— Central S i b e r i a , 1970 95 XVI. Technically E x p l o i t a b l e Hydro C a p a c i t y — European Russia, by Economic Region . . . . 109 XVII. U t i l i z a t i o n of Economically Accessible Hydro Potential, European Russia 112 XVIII. Estimates of Regional I n s t a l l e d Capacity by Type, European Russia 1962 114 XIX. Fuel Consumption—Thermal Power Stations, (In Terms of Conventional Fuel Equivalent) . . 117 XX. Prime Cost and S e l l i n g Price of Selected Fuels 1958", (European Russia and Imported) . . . » 125 XXI. Estimated Consumption of E l e c t r i c Power— European Russia 1962 132 XXII. Technically Exploitable Hydro Capacity, Peripheral Areas 145 XXIII. Estimates of Regional Installed Capacity . . . by Type, Peripheral Regions 1962 151 XXIV. Comparative Cost of Selected Fuels per Ton of Fuel Equivalent . 153 K21 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1. Installed Generating Capacities, Soviet Union, United States, Canada 2 2. Regional Grid Systems 1964 9 3. Prospective Dam S i t e s — D i s t r i b u t i o n and Potential Capacity 17 4 . Allotment of System Load i n the European Russia Power Network 21 5. D i s t r i b u t i o n of Generating Capacity 1964 . . . . 35 6. The Changing Pattern of Generating Capacity, 1928-1935 44 7 . Hydro Power—Development and Potential 52 8. The Central Siberian Region 61 9. Variation of Annual Discharge— Selected Streams 65 10. Annual River Flow C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s — Volga and Angara 72 11. The Regions of European Russia .107 12. The Northwest Region and East European Grid . . . 128 13. The Caucasus Region . . . 149 14. The Central Asian Region 155 15. Peripheral Regions '. 158 16. Comparative Regional Installed Capacity 1962 . . 178 XH2 ACKNOWLEDGMENT The a u t h o r w i s h e s t o acknowledge t h e a d v i c e g i v e n by Dr. D.J.M. Hooson and Dr. J.D. Chapman. The a s s i s t a n c e p r o -v i d e d by t h e s t a f f o f t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r t h e S t u d y o f t h e U.S.S.R., Munich, i s a l s o g r a t e f u l l y acknowledged. CHAPTER I THE SOVIET SCENE IN PERSPECTIVE The energy i n d u s t r y i n t h e U.S.SiR. i s c u r r e n t l y i n t h e t h r o e s o f e x t e n s i v e i n t e r n a l r e o r g a n i z a t i o n . O i l and gas are r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g t h e i r r e l a t i v e s h a r e s o f the f u e l m i x , r e f l e c t i n g a c o m p a r a t i v e l y l a t e move away f r o m an e a r l i e r p r e -dominance o f c o a l . The p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n between energy con-sumption, and t h e l e v e l o f economic development, has l o n g been r e c o g n i z e d i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and much o f t h e impetus f o r r e c e n t changes stems from t h i s r e c o g n i t i o n . 1 Growth o f the e l e c t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y has always been a c t i v e l y promoted, but i t i s o n l y r e c e n t l y t h a t t h e s p a t i a l p a t t e r n o f p r o d u c t i o n and consumption has a l t e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y . Much p u b l i c i t y i s d e r i v e d from accomplishments i n t h e power i n d u s t r y , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e f i e l d s o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c development and t h e e x t r a - h i g h v o l t a g e (EHV) t r a n s m i s s i o n o f power. Because o f t h e i r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c l a r g e s c a l e , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f h y d r o p l a n t s i s f r e q u e n t l y e u l o g i z e d as s y m b o l i c o f t h e t e c h n i c a l achievements p o s s i b l e under a S o c i a l i s t s y s t e m . 2 To a p p r e c i a t e t h e s c a l e and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e S o v i e t e l e c t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y a few g e n e r a l c o m p a r i s o n s can p r o f i t a b l y be made w i t h t h e N o r t h A m e r i c a n s i t u a t i o n . F i g u r e I d e p i c t s t h e r a p i d i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l S o v i e t i n -s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y s i n c e 1920. W h i l e i t i s o b v i o u s t h a t t h e r a t e 500 400--Insta l led C a p o c i t y -Mi l l ion 300--Ki lowatts (MKW) 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 I960 1970 FIGURE 1 INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITIES; SOVIET UNION, UNITED STATES,.CANADA 3 o f growth has been s i g n i f i c a n t , i t should be n o t e d t h a t t h e t o t a l c a p a c i t y has a l w a y s been much l e s s than t h a t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . I n b oth c o u n t r i e s the r e l a t i v e shares o f h y d r o and t h e r m a l capa-c i t y a r e about th e same. 3 On t h e o t h e r hand the U.S.S.R. c u r -r e n t l y has a bout f o u r t i m e s t h e g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y o f Canada, and i n t h i s i n s t a n c e a b s o l u t e i n s t a l l e d h ydro c a p a c i t i e s a r e e q u i v a l e n t . 4 I n c o n t r a s t t o t h e U.S. and Canada, however, a s t a n d a r d f u n c t i o n has g e n e r a l l y been a s c r i b e d t o S o v i e t hydro c a p a c i t y — t h a t o f m e e t i n g peak demand.^ The P a c i f i c N o r t h w e s t i s i n many ways analogous w i t h t h e C e n t r a l S i b e r i a n r e g i o n o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n t h a t b o t h r e p r e -sent a r e a s o f a c t i v e h y d r o development a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e i r p o t e n t i a l markets, C a l i f o r n i a and European R u s s i a r e s p e c t i v e l y . These markets a r e a t p r e s e n t energy de-f i c i e n t and must l o o k t o e x t e r n a l sources i n o r d e r t o meet b a s i c r e q u i r e m e n t s . The import o f e l e c t r i c i t y f a c i l i t a t e d by a u n i f i e d power network o f comparable a r e a l e x t e n t ( i . e . , 1 , 5 0 0 t o 2 , 0 0 0 m i l e s ) i s p l a n n e d i n each c a s e . S i m i l a r i t i e s i n t h e s i z e o f p l a n t and f u n c t i o n e x i s t between B r i t i s h Columbia and C e n t r a l S i b e r i a . I n both r e g i o n s power g e n e r a t i o n i s t h e k e y n o t e , w i t h f l o o d c o n t r o l and i r r i g a t i o n b e i n g m i n o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , and con-s t r u c t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y underway on what a r e the l a r g e s t s c a l e p r o j e c t s t o d a t e . 0 I n s o f a r as American and S o v i e t t h e r m a l power g e n e r a t i o n i s concerned, g e n e r a l t r e n d s a r e s i m i l a r , i n t h a t i n c r e a s e d emphasis k i s b e i n g a c c o r d e d the use o f h i g h c a l o r i f i c f u e l s such as gas and o i l f a c i l i t a t e d by e v o l v i n g networks o f p i p e l i n e s . G r e a t e r s i g -n i f i c a n c e , however, has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been a t t a c h e d t o t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f l o c a l energy r e s o u r c e s i n t h e U.S.S.R. I n b o t h c a s e s e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t e d by n u c l e a r power p l a n t s i s s t i l l r e l a t i v e l y unimportant.* 7 Consumption o f e l e c t r i c i t y i n t h e U.S. c l e a r l y i s dominated, i n b o t h r e l a t i v e and a b s o l u t e t e r m s , by t h e d o m e s t i c s e c t o r , as T a b l e I r e v e a l s . I t i s o n l y i n t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r t h a t S o v i e t r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e a b s o l u t e l y g r e a t e r t h a n A m e r i c a n . T h i s i s t h e r e s u l t o f t h e emphasis t h e U.S.S.R. has put on e l e c t r i c t r a c t i o n , something w h i c h has y e t t o g a i n f a v o u r i n N o r t h America. W i t h t h e broad c o m p a r a t i v e p i c t u r e o f t h e S o v i e t e l e c t r i -c i t y i n d u s t r y o u t l i n e d , t h e purpose o f t h i s s t u d y s h o u l d be made e x p l i c i t . THE SCOPE OF THE STUDY I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e c o n s i d e r a b l e v e r b a l a t t e n t i o n g i v e n t h e e l e c t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y , much has been s a i d r e g a r d i n g t h e S o v i e t Union's h y d r o p o t e n t i a l , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e e a s t e r n r e g i o n s . As past s t a t e m e n t s have t e n d e d t o be o f a e u l o g i s t i c n a t u r e , an ob-j e c t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s l o n g overdue. 0* B o t h t h e concepts u s e d t o measure hyd r o p o t e n t i a l and t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r o s p e c t i v e dam s i t e s have been a n a l y s e d i n d e t a i l and i t i s hoped t h a t a more r e a l i s t i c p i c t u r e i s t h e r e s u l t . 5 TABLE I CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY SOVIET UNION—UNITED STATES*> D S o v i e t U n i o n U n i t e d S t a t e s BKWH Perce n t o f .. T o t a l BKWH P e r c e n t o f T o t a l Domestic and A l l i e d Consumption 4 5 . 4 1 5 . 8 3 7 8 . 9 4 6 . 4 Industry- 2 2 2 . 1 7 7 . 6 4 2 3 . 2 5 2 . 4 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 1 8 . 6 6 . 6 5 . 2 1 .2 T o t a l Consumption 286 . 1 1 0 0 . 0 8 0 7 . 4 1 0 0 . 0 a. The S i t u a t i o n and Futu r e P r o s p e c t s o f Europe's E l e c t r i c  Power S u p p l y I n d u s t r y i n 1961-62, U n i t e d N a t i o n s . Geneva. 1963. p. 12. b. L i n e l o s s and s t a t i o n consumption have n o t been s e p a r a t e d . There i s a d e a r t h o f r e g i o n a l s t u d i e s on the S o v i e t e l e c -t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y and because o f the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c macro-coverage s i g n i f i c a n t r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e p o s i t i o n o f h y d r o e l e c t r i -c i t y r e l a t i v e t o t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y have been c l o u d e d o v e r and i g n o r e d . There e x i s t s , t h e r e f o r e , t h e p r o b l e m o f g i v i n g some c o m p a r a t i v e , q u a n t i t a t i v e r a n k , i n terms o f i n s t a l l e d g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t i e s , t o a system o f r e g i o n s . W h i l e s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y have tended t o be d e a l t w i t h c u r s o r i l y , t h e consumption o f e l e c -t r i c i t y i s a s u b j e c t t o w h i c h no a t t e n t i o n has been d i r e c t e d . I n t h e past i t has not been p o s s i b l e e i t h e r t o r a n k i n d u s t r i e s i n terms o f e l e c t r i c power r e q u i r e m e n t s , o r t o o b t a i n any s o r t o f r e g i o n a l c o m p a r i s o n o f i n d u s t r i a l o r s e c t o r needs ( i . e . , d o m e s t i c ) . Thus a t t e n t i o n accorded t h e consumption o f e l e c t r i c i t y i n European R u s s i a and t h e C e n t r a l S i b e r i a n r e g i o n i n t h i s s t u d y c o n s t i t u t e s a p i o n e e r e f f o r t . A l t h o u g h t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s o f ne-c e s s i t y have used d i f f e r e n t base y e a r s , i t i s now p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n some i d e a as t o b o t h t h e r e l a t i v e and a b s o l u t e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e v a r i o u s consumers on an i n t r a - and i n t e r - r e g i o n a l b a s i s . C e n t r a l S i b e r i a has been t r e a t e d i n g r e a t e s t d e t a i l s i n c e i t i s g e n e r a l l y l o o k e d upon as t h e f u t u r e s t o r e h o u s e o f e l e c t r i c power. I n o r d e r t o t e s t t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h i s s t a t e m e n t , p r e s e n t as w e l l as f u t u r e r e g i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r e l e c t r i c power have been e s t i m a t e d . As a r e s u l t o f t h i s a n a l y s i s one f a c t became c l e a r l y 7 a p p a r e n t - - t h a t r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n l o a d f a c t o r s between t y p e s o f consumer has been absent i n o t h e r d i s c u s s i o n s o f e l e c t r i c i t y consumption. G e n e r a l l y , t h e a b s o l u t e number o f k i l o w a t t h o u r s (KWH) consumed by a p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r y o r s e c t o r o f t h e economy i s used as t h e b a s i c c r i t e r i o n i n d e t e r m i n i n g r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e . Yet as w i l l be p o i n t e d o u t , l o a d f a c t o r i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e perhaps u n e x p e c t e d importance o f c e r t a i n s e c t o r s o f t h e S o v i e t economy. Thus, i t i s here g i v e n f u l l r e c o g n i t i o n and k i l o w a t t (KW) c a p a c i t y r e q u i r e d t o meet s p e c i f i c demands i s u s e d as a measure o f r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e . I n summary, the concern h e r e i s i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e a b s o l u t e s i z e and t y p e o f r e g i o n a l i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y and g e n e r a t i o n , t o -g e t h e r w i t h consumption. S o v i e t g e n e r a t i o n and consumption o f e l e c t r i c i t y has n o t been a n a l y s e d on a r e g i o n a l b a s i s b e f o r e , as f a r as i s known. Thus, t h i s s t u d y attempts t o p r e s e n t an a n a l y s i s o f t h e s p a t i a l p a t t e r n o f complementary a s p e c t s o f the e l e c t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y . I t i s i n t e n d e d t o f i l l i n p a r t what i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be a v o i d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e on t h e S o v i e t power i n d u s t r y . FUNCTIONAL REGIONS The r e g i o n s u sed i n t h i s s t u d y a r e based on t h e a r e a l ex-t e n t o f t h e s e v e r a l g r i d systems w h i c h a r e now a f u n c t i o n a l and f u n d a m e n t a l p a r t o f t h e S o v i e t power s c e n e . G r i d s y s t e m s , from a g e o g r a p h i c p o i n t o f v i e w , r e p r e s e n t a h i g h l y f u n c t i o n a l and mean-i n g f u l u n i t . Thus f a r , however, t h e r e have been few g e o g r a p h i c s t u d i e s w h i c h u t i l i z e them as a b a s i s f o r r e g i o n a l i z a t i o n . T h i s i s somewhat s u r p r i s i n g as t h e r e has been c o n s i d e r a b l e l i t e r a t u r e on e l e c t r i c power i n d u s t r i e s . 9 D o u b t l e s s , M a r t h a C h u r c h 1 s paper i s t h e p i o n e e r i n t h i s f i e l d , a l t h o u g h t h e purpose o f h e r u t i -l i z a t i o n o f g r i d systems d i f f e r s from t h a t h e r e . 1 ^ The p r i n c i -p a l g uide i n d e l i m i t i n g t h e r e g i o n s f o r t h i s s t u d y has been t h e S o v i e t map, E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i SSSR. 1;8.00Q.000. but i n a d d i t i o n e x t e n s i v e use has been made o f t h e S o v i e t t e c h n i c a l l i t e r a t u r e i n o r d e r t o keep a b r e a s t o f r e c e n t i n t e r t i e s . One m i g h t argue t h a t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y would c o n s t i t u t e a b e t t e r b a s i s f o r r e g i o n a l i z a t i o n , however, i t i s f e l t t h a t i n a r e g i o n a l s t u d y o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y such an a p p r o a c h c o u l d l e a d t o d i f f i c u l t i e s . F o r example, i n t h e case o f C e n t r a l S i b e r i a an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y on F i g u r e 5, page 35. might l e a d one t o e x p e c t t h a t the Ust-Kamenogorsk i n d u s t r i a l a r e a w o u l d be i n c l u d e d w i t h i n a C e n t r a l S i b e r i a n r e g i o n . However, no i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n e x i s t s between t h e K u z n e t s k b a s i n and t h e a r e a r e f e r r e d t o , n o r i s one p l a n n e d (see F i g u r e 8, page 61). C o n s e q u e n t l y , Ust-Kamenogorsk i n t h i s s t u d y i s n o t i n c l u d e d i n C e n t r a l S i b e r i a . The r e g i o n s d e a l t w i t h are d e p i c t e d on F i g u r e 2. G r e a t e s t a t t e n t i o n w i l l be a c c o r d e d those o f European R u s s i a ( C e n t e r - V o l g a , U r a l , South, and N o r t h w e s t ) and C e n t r a l S i b e r i a , s i n c e t h e y a c c o u n t f o r r o u g h l y t w o - t h i r d s o f t o t a l S o v i e t i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y and s l i g h t l y more o f t o t a l g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y . F i n a l l y , FIGURE 2 REGIONAL GRID SYSTEMS 1964 10 what a r e r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e P e r i p h e r a l R e g i o n s (Caucasus, C e n t r a l A s i a , N o r t h e a s t K a z a k h s t a n , F a r E a s t and Murmansk) a r e c o n s i d e r e d , b u t i n l e s s d e t a i l . I n t h e c o n c l u d i n g c h a p t e r some a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n t o t h e p r o s p e c t s o f hydro development i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , e s p e c i a l l y i n C e n t r a l S i b e r i a . A d d i t i o n a l l y , i t s purpose i s t o summarize t h e s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n and consumption o f e l e c t r i -c i t y i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . SOURCE MATERIAL There e x i s t s c o n s i d e r a b l e l i t e r a t u r e i n R u s s i a n on t h e S o v i e t e l e c t r i c power i n d u s t r y . However, w i t h t h e r a p i d advance b e i n g made by S o v i e t e n g i n e e r s p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e f i e l d s o f h y d r a u l i c c o n s t r u c t i o n and EHV l o n g d i s t a n c e t r a n s m i s s i o n o f power, i n c r e a s i n g amounts o f m a t e r i a l a r e becoming a v a i l a b l e i n E n g l i s h . The m a t e r i a l g e n e r a l l y f a l l s i n t o two c a t e g o r i e s ; t h a t o f a t e c h n i c a l n a t u r e ( i n R u s s i a n , E n g l i s h and German) and t h a t w h i c h i s p r i n c i p a l l y d e s c r i p t i v e . When by S o v i e t a u t h o r s , t h e l a t t e r i s v e r y o f t e n o f a e u l o g i s t i c n a t u r e and a l t h o u g h f r e -q u e n t l y c o n t a i n i n g u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n , c o n s i d e r a b l e c a r e must be t a k e n i n e v a l u a t i o n . I n t h i s s t u d y t h e t e c h n i c a l l i t e r a t u r e has been u t i l i z e d wherever p o s s i b l e . Of t h e j o u r n a l s p e r t i n e n t t o t h e s u b j e c t , t h e f o l l o w i n g have been f o u n d most u s e f u l : E l e k t r i c h e s k i y e S t a n t s i i , E n e r g e t i k a and G i d r o t e k h n i c h e s k o y e  S t r o i t e l * s t v o . I n o r d e r t o a p p r e c i a t e f u l l y S o v i e t power development, i t i s n e c e s s a r y now t o c o n s i d e r i n some d e t a i l c e r t a i n t e c h n i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s w h i c h d i f f e r e n t i a t e t h e s i t u a t i o n i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n f r o m t h a t o f o t h e r a r e a s . 12 REFERENCES: CHAPTER I 1. For an o u t l i n e of the general theory, see N. Guyol, Energy Consumption and Economic Development, Essays on Geography  and Economic Development, University of Chicago, I960, pp. 65-77. 2. For a t y p i c a l example see, Pobeda S t r o i t e l e y Bratskoy GES, (Triumphant Construction of Bratsk Hydro S t a t i o n ) , Trud, January 16, 1964, p. 1. 3. This i s about 20 percent, Recent E l e c t r i c Power  Developments i n the U.S.S.R., Report of the United States Delegation Tour to Soviet Russia, August 28-September 9, 1962, Under U.S.-U.S.S.R. Exchange Agreement, U.S. Government Printing O f f i c e , Washington, D.C, December 27, 1962, p. 43; and Narodnoye  Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 159. 4. This f i g u r e i s a l i t t l e over 20 MKW as of 1963-64; E l e c t r i c Power i n Canada. 1964, Department of Northern A f f a i r s and National Resources, Water Resources Branch, Ottawa, 1965; and Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1963 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye S t a t i s t i c h e s -koye Upravleniye p r i Sovete M i n i s t r o v SSSR, Moskva, 1964, p. 157. 5. A discussion follows i n Chapter I I . 6. In the Soviet Union there have been political-economic factors associated with hydro development as the conservation of non-renewable energy resources has played an important r o l e i n theory. See, Von Gottfried Vogel, Die E l e k t r i z i t a t s w i r t s . c h a f t . UdSSR: Unser Wissen uber die Sow.ietunion, (ed. K. Kriiger), Berlin, 1957, p. 35. 7. See, Stand und Entwicklung der Kernenergiegewinnung i n der UdSSR, (unsigned), Der Aktuelle Osten: Kommentare und  Nachrichten aus P b l i t i k , Wirtschaft und Technik der UdSSR und der  S a t e l l i t e n l a n d e r . Bonn. No. 40-41. October 26. 1962. pp. 4-6. Conversation with H.M. E l l i s , B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, Canada, March 10, 1965, supports t h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . 8. As a general example of the kind of non-qualitative statements regarding Soviet hydro p o t e n t i a l see, S.F. Shershov, Ekonomika i Qrganizatsiya Energeticheskogo Proizvodstva, (Economics and Organization of Energy Production), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1959, pp. 110-20. 13 9. An e x c e l l e n t b i b l i o g r a p h y can be found i n W.D.. K r e s s , The Geography o f E l e c t r i c Power i n M i n n e s o t a . Ph.D. T h e s i s , M i c r o f i l m , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i n n e s o t a , May 1962. 10. Martha Church, The S p a t i a l O r g a n i z a t i o n o f E l e c t r i c  Power T e r r i t o r i e s i n M a s s a c h u s e t t s . U n i v e r s i t y o f Ch i c a g o . Department o f Geography R e s e a r c h Paper No. 69, Chicago, September, I 9 6 0 . REFERENCES: FIGURES F i g u r e 1 . Data f r o m , Recent E l e c t r i c Power Developments  i n t h e U.S.S.R., R e p o r t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s D e l e g a t i o n Tour t o S o v i e t R u s s i a , August 28-September 9 , 1 9 6 2 , Under U.S.-U.S.S.R. Exchange Agreement, U n i t e d S t a t e s Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , Washington, D.C., December 2 7 , 1 9 6 2 , p. 4 1 ; E l e c t r i c  Power i n Canada. 1 9 6 4 . Department o f N o r t h e r n A f f a i r s and N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s , Water R e s o u r c e s B r a n c h , Ottawa, 1 9 6 5 , p. 1 5 . F i g u r e 2 . P r i m a r y r e f e r e n c e f o r t h i s F i g u r e , E l e k t r i - f i k a t s i v a SSSR. ( 1 : 8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 ) , Glavnoye U p r a v l e n i y e G e o d e z i i i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo G e o l o g i c h e s k o g o K o m i t e t a SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 ; a d d i t i o n a l l y , t h e f o l l o w i n g s o u r c e s have been u s e d , E.A. T r o f i m o v s k a y a , E d i n a y a E n e r g e t i c h e s k a y a . ( S i n g l e Energy System), I z d a t e l ' s t v o Z n a n i y e , Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , pp. 2 0 - 2 1 ; M.I. G a l i n t s k i y , S.K. D a n i l o v , A . I . Korneev, Ekonomicheskaya  G e o g r a f i y a T r a n s p o r t a SSSR. (Economic Geography o f T r a n s p o r t i n t h e U.S.S.R.), I z d a t e l ' s t v o T r a n s p o r t a , Moskva, 1 9 6 5 , p. 5 7 . CHAPTER I I HYDRO POWER IN THE SOVIET UNION I n v i e w o f th e f a c t t h a t the f o c u s o f t h i s s t u d y i s on hydro power development, i t i s n e c e s s a r y t h a t s e v e r a l t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s be c l a r i f i e d b e f o r e p r o c e e d i n g w i t h an a n a l y s i s o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y . W h i l e S o v i e t e n g i n e e r s a r e f u r t h e r advanced t h a n t h e i r Western c o u n t e r p a r t s i n c e r t a i n phases o f h y d r a u l i c c o n s t r u c t i o n , i t i s n o t t h i s k i n d o f d i f f e r e n c e which i s o f d i r e c t c o n c e r n here.' R a t h e r t h i s c h a p t e r w i l l attempt t o e x p l a i n c e r t a i n c o n c e p t u a l i-d i f f e r e n c e s a s s o c i a t e d e s p e c i a l l y w i t h t h e r o l e and c o m p u t a t i o n o f prime c o s t o f hydro power i n th e S o v i e t U n i o n . I n s o f a r as hydro p o t e n t i a l i s concerned, s t a n d a r d methods o f e s t i m a t i o n a r e f o l l o w e d y e t , as w i l l become e v i d e n t , t h e S o v i e t f i g u r e s f o r p o t e n t i a l hydro c a p a c i t y cannot be u n e q u i v o c a l l y a c c e p t e d . THE CONCEPT OF HYDRO POTENTIAL I n a s s e s s i n g hydro p o t e n t i a l two approac h e s a r e commonly u s e d , e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e t h e o r e t i c a l " g r o s s " p o t e n t i a l and t h e " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e " , o r i n S o v i e t t e r m i n o l o g y , " p o s s i b l e t o u t i l i z e " p o t e n t i a l . " The f i r s t i s a crude assessment based s i m p l y on t h e p r o d u c t o f head t i m e s t h e average f l o w o f t h e stream and g i v e s no c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o t h e e n g i n e e r i n g f e a s i -b i l i t y o f e r e c t i n g hydro s t a t i o n s . 3 The s e c o n d approach i s i n p a r t an attempt t o o f f s e t some o f t h e i n h e r e n t l i m i t a t i o n s o f the f o r m e r and i s o f t e n d e r i v e d t h r o u g h d e d u c t i n g e s t i m a t e d l o s s e s i n head and, t h e r e f o r e , p o t e n t i a l c a p a c i t y , from t h e " g r o s s " p o t e n t i a l f i g u r e . I n t h e S o v i e t Union t h e " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e " p o t e n t i a l i s g e n e r a l l y a r r i v e d a t by summing c a p a c i t i e s a t p r o s p e c t i v e dam s i t e s . 4 I n e i t h e r case t h e a p p r o a c h i s i n t e n d e d t o g i v e a more r e a l i s t i c f i g u r e f o r p o t e n -t i a l hydro c a p a c i t y . As t h e t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e assessment s t i l l i n v o l v e s s e r i o u s l i m i t a t i o n s , an approach o f s t i l l g r e a t e r r e f i n e m e n t has e v o l v e d , one i n w h i c h p r e v i o u s l y n e g l e c t e d economic f a c t o r s a r e t a k e n i n t o account.5 U n f o r t u n a t e l y i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n s u c h an a p p r o a c h i s r a r e l y u s e d . I n most d i s c u s s i o n s o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s water power r e s o u r c e s t h e a n a l y s i s ends w i t h an e s t i -mate o f " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e " p o t e n t i a l . I t s h o u l d be p o i n t e d out t h a t a l t h o u g h t h e r e a r e no grounds on which t o q u e s t i o n the S o v i e t e s t i m a t e s o f p o t e n t i a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e v a r i o u s s t r e a m s , t h i s does not a p p l y t o t h e e s t i m a t e d a n n u a l g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m t h i s c a p a c i t y . F r e q u e n t l y e s t i m a t e s o f g e n e r a t i o n a r e based on a 10G p e r c e n t p l a n t f a c t o r w h i c h i s d e f i n i t e l y m i s l e a d i n g , 0 s i n c e t h e average has always been l e s s t h a n 50 p e r c e n t . * 7 I t i s n e c e s s a r y , t h e r e -f o r e , t o r e g a r d a l l f i g u r e s o f t h i s n a t u r e w i t h some degree o f c a u t i o n . There i s one fundamental f a c t o r w h i c h t h e u s u a l S o v i e t method o f e s t i m a t i n g hydro p o t e n t i a l n e g l e c t s e n t i r e l y — t h a t o f d i s t r i b u t i o n . ^ To know t h a t t h e E a s t e r n r e g i o n s possess o v e r 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s h y d r o r e s o u r c e s i s o f l i t t l e v a l u e u n l e s s one i s aware o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h i n t h i s a r e a . 0 . F i g u r e 3 d e p i c t s t h e p r i n c i p a l p r o s p e c t i v e dam s i t e s , t h e capa-c i t i e s o f w h i c h are t h e b a s i s f o r t h e " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e " hydro p o t e n t i a l . W h i l e t h e r e s t i l l e x i s t s some p o t e n t i a l i n European R u s s i a , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f hydro p o t e n t i a l f o r t h e c o u n t r y as a whole i s l a r g e l y p e r i p h e r a l . I n t h e r e g i o n a l c h a p t e r s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r o s p e c t i v e dam s i t e s i s c o n s i d e r e d i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e a r e a l e x t e n t o f p e r m a f r o s t , as w e l l as e x i s t i n g i n d u s t r i a l and u r b a n development. The o b j e c t o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t o a r r i v e a t t h e c u r r e n t " e c o n o m i c a l l y a c c e s s i b l e " h y d r o p o t e n t i a l , a g e o g r a p h i c c o n c e p t i n t e n d e d t o p r o v i d e a more m e a n i n g f u l f i g u r e t h a n e i t h e r t h e " g r o s s " o r " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e . " HYDRO AS PEAKING CAPACITY Throughout t h e S o v i e t l i t e r a t u r e d e a l i n g w i t h e l e c t r i c power development t h e r e i s c o n t i n u e d r e f e r e n c e t o h y d r o capa-c i t y b e i n g used t o meet peak demand. T h i s f u n c t i o n does v a r y somewhat r e g i o n a l l y . F o r example, the new l a r g e s c a l e h y d r o p l a n t s i n C e n t r a l S i b e r i a do n o t e n t i r e l y comply w i t h the s t a n -d a r d r o l e a t t r i b u t e d t o hydro s t a t i o n s because o f d i f f e r e n t p h y s i c a l g eographic c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h p e r m i t a h i g h e r a v e r a g e FIGURE 3 PROSPECTIVE D M SITES—DISTRIBUTION AND POTENTIAL CAPACITY 18 a n n u a l p l a n t f a c t o r . 1 ^ However, some g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s can be made r e g a r d i n g t h e r o l e o f h y d r o s t a t i o n s i n European R u s s i a , t h e Caucasus and C e n t r a l A s i a . As e a r l y as 1932 h y d r o p l a n t s were d e s i g n e d t o meet peak l o a d demand. 1 1 S u b s e q u e n t l y t h e r e has been a c o n t i n u e d empha-s i s on a s s i g n i n g t o hydro c a p a c i t y t h e r o l e o f meeting t h e peak l o a d i n power systems. The f o l l o w i n g q u o t a t i o n s o u t l i n e some o f t h e t e c h n i c a l reasons b e h i n d t h i s p o l i c y . . . . I n a c o m b i n a t i o n o f steam and hydro p l a n t s , t h e hydro p l a n t s s h o u l d be o p e r a t e d t o o b t a i n t h e b e s t u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e a v a i l a b l e w a t e r . T h i s does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i m p l y t h e most e f f i c i e n t o p e r a t i o n o f t h e hydro equipment, but s u c h us e as w i l l r e s u l t i n t h e l e a s t o v e r a l l p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s , t a k i n g i n t o account t h e e f f e c t o f h y d r o g e n e r a t i o n on t h e p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s o f t h e steam p l a n t . . . • S i n c e t h e r e are no f u e l c o s t s i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f h y d r o -e l e c t r i c e n e rgy, i n c r e m e n t a l energy can be s u p p l i e d by a h y d r o p l a n t a t p r a c t i c a l l y no i n c r e m e n t a l c o s t . I t f o l l o w s J t h e r e f o r e , t h a t , w i t h r e s p e c t t o l o a d a l l o c a t i o n between steam and h y d r o p l a n t s , t h e g e n e r a t i o n a t t h e steam p l a n t s s h o u l d be d i s p l a c e d by a v a i l a b l e g e n e r a t i o n a t t h e h y d r o p l a n t s , so t h a t the maximum decrement p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s w i l l o b t a i n a t t h e steam p l a n t s . The e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h i s can be a c c o m p l i s h e d depends on t h e n a t u r e o f the d a i l y l o a d c urve f o r t h e system, t h e t y p e o f hydro p l a n t s , and t h e a v a i l a b l e water. . . • P l a n t s w i t h s t o r a g e o r pondage f a c i l -i t i e s may be o p e r a t e d t o s u p p l y e i t h e r base o r peak l o a d , depending on how t h e f l o w may b e s t be u t i l i z e d . 1 ^ The equipment o f a h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p l a n t i s a b l e t o work s a t i s f a c t o r i l y even under s h a r p l o a d f l u c t u a t i o n s , i t s e f f i c i e n c y b e i n g h a r d l y a f f e c t e d by l o a d v a r i a t i o n s o v e r a wide r a n g e . On t h e o t h e r hand, the equipment o f a h e a t -power ( t h e r m a l ) p l a n t does n o t have t h i s a d a p t a b i l i t y ; v a r -i a t i o n i n t h e t u r b i n e and b o i l e r l o a d can be a c h i e v e d o n l y w i t h i n c e r t a i n l i m i t s . O p e r a t i o n o f heat-power p l a n t s d u r i n g peak l o a d c a u s e s i n c r e a s e d f u e l consumption and reduced e f f i c i e n c y and r e l i a b i l i t y . T a k i n g c a r e o f the peak l o a d , • • • h y d r o p l a n t s i n c r e a s e the e f f i c i e n c y o f the t h e r m a l p l a n t s by r e l i e v i n g them when t h e y would have t o operate u n d e r d i s a d v a n t a g e o u s c o n d i t i o n s . There are two ways i n which t h e r m a l p l a n t s may be used t o meet peak l o a d demand. F i r s t o f a l l t h r o u g h o p e r a t i n g a t reduced l o a d d u r i n g o f f - p e a k h o u r s , which o f t e n means a t t h e t e c h n i c a l minimum, and th e n a t f u l l c a p a c i t y d u r i n g t h e peak h o u r s . S e c o n d l y , t h r o u g h d i s c o n t i n u o u s o p e r a t i o n i n v o l v i n g d a i l y s t o p s and s t a r t s . B o t h i n v o l v e s e v e r a l t e c h n i c a l p r o b l e m s , such as t h e uneven b u r n i n g o f f u e l a l l u d e d t o i n the l a t t e r quote, o r w i t h r e g a r d t o d i s c o n t i n u o u s o p e r a t i o n , t h e a c t u a l t i m e i n v o l v e d b e f o r e t h e g e n e r a t o r s come under f u l l l o a d , seldom l e s s t h a n two h o u r s . On t h e o t h e r hand, l a r g e s c a l e hydro s t a t i o n s can come under f u l l l o a d f r o m r e s t i n l e s s t h a n two m i n u t e s . 1 ^ Fundamental t o t h e concept o f hyd r o meeting peak demand i s a w e l l d e v e l o p e d g r i d , p r e f e r a b l y one w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e e a s t - w e s t e x t e n t so as t o be a b l e t o t a k e advantage o f t h e v a r y i n g peak demand h o u r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n t t i m e zones. Such a g r i d e x i s t s i n European R u s s i a a t p r e s e n t ( F i g u r e 2), e x t e n d i n g f r o m t h e Moscow r e g i o n t o the U r a l s and t a k i n g i n t h r e e time zones. One might s t i l l r a i s e t h e q u e s t i o n as t o why h y d r o e l e c -t r i c s t a t i o n s g e n e r a t i n g l o w c o s t e l e c t r i c i t y would be u s e d t o meet peak demand, s i n c e i t might appear l o g i c a l f o r t h i s power t o be used i n meetin g base l o a d demand. I n d e e d J a s n y , one o f t h e l e a d i n g e m i gre a u t h o r i t i e s on t h e S o v i e t economy, has been most c r i t i c a l o f t h i s s p e c i a l i z e d r o l e o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n t s . H i s argument c e n t e r s around t h e f a c t t h a t t h e y r e q u i r e a com-p a r a t i v e l y g r e a t e r investment g e n e r a l l y than t h e r m a l p l a n t s o f e q u i v a l e n t c a p a c i t y b u t operate f e w e r hours per y e a r . 1 - * I n European R u s s i a p a r t i c u l a r l y one must draw a r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h i s f u n c t i o n and t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c r e g i m e s o f t h e m a j o r r i v e r s . I n g e n e r a l terms t h e f o l l o w i n g s i t u a t i o n p r e -v a i l s . I n t e r c o n n e c t e d hydro s t a t i o n s o p e r a t e at f u l l c a p a c i t y d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d o f maximum r i v e r f l o w , i n w h i c h case t h e r m a l p l a n t s a r e o f t e n shut down c o m p l e t e l y . A f t e r t h i s p e r i o d o f maximum f l o w t h e hydro s t a t i o n assumes the r o l e o f meeting peak demand, t h e number o f o p e r a t i n g h o u r s per day o r p e r week b e i n g g overned by t h e s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y o f t h e r e s e r v o i r and t h e p e r c e n t o f t h i s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y . 1 ^ I n a d d i t i o n t h e u t i l i z a t i o n w i l l v a r y w i t h t h e a b s o l u t e h y d r o c a p a c i t y w i t h i n t h e p a r t i c u l a r systems. E x c e s s c a p a c i t y above t h a t which i s r e q u i r e d t o meet system peak demand i s sometimes u s e d t o s u p p l y a s m a l l p a r t o f t h e base l o a d , as t h e f o l l o w i n g s c h e m a t i c diagram i l l u s t r a t e s . T h i s i s l i k e l y t o become l e s s common, f o r by 1970 t o t a l hydro i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y i n t h e U n i f i e d E u r o p e a n Power Network w i l l be i n s u f f i c i e n t t o c o v e r t h e e n t i r e peak o f t h e l o a d c u r v e . 1 7 I t i s p o s s i b l e t o f u r t h e r c l a r i f y t h i s s i t u a t i o n i f one assumes, f o r example, t h a t a t a g i v e n s t a t i o n t h e r e i s a v a i l -a b l e d a i l y .5 MKW o f c a p a c i t y . I t i s p o s s i b l e t o u t i l i z e t h i s 21 \M Thermal Condensation ( K E S ) ||) Thermal Heat and Power ( T E T S ) FIGURE 4 ALLOTMENT OF SYSTEM LOAD IN THE EUROPEAN RUSSIA POWER NETWORK i n d i f f e r e n t ways; i t may be econo m i c a l t o "over-machine" t h e s t a t i o n , t h u s i n s t e a d o f o p e r a t i n g the a v a i l a b l e c a p a c i t y 12 h o u r s per day, 2 MKW o f c a p a c i t y i s i n s t a l l e d and o p e r a t e d t h r e e h o u r s per day d u r i n g t h e peak p e r i o d . P r o x i m a t e l o c a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o l o a d c e n t e r and t h e v a l u e o f f u e l s a v e d by not h a v i n g t o i n s t a l l t h e r m a l c a p a c i t y a r e two major f a c t o r s i n t h e 18 d e c i s i o n as t o whether o r not t h i s s i t u a t i o n w i l l a r i s e . S e v e r a l s t a t i o n s i n European R u s s i a would a p p e a r t o have been d e s i g n e d w i t h t h e s e f a c t o r s i n mind, as w i l l be p o i n t e d out i n subsequent c h a p t e r s . One o f t h e p r i n c i p a l r e a s o n s f a c i l i t a t i n g t h e implemen-t a t i o n o f such a p o l i c y i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n as compared t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , where s u c h has not been t h e cas e , i s t h e a c t u a l o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e i n d u s t r y . The o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e d e p i c t e d i n T a b l e II has a d e f i n i t e h i e r a r c h i a l p a t t e r n . T h i s c l e a r l y p e r m i t s a f a r h i g h e r degree o f s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n i n s o f a r as t h e f u n c t i o n o f a s p e c i f i c t y p e o f c a p a c i t y i s concerned, t h a n would be t h e c a s e i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s , where b o t h p r i -v a t e and p u b l i c i n t e r e s t s c o n t r o l g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y , i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s new c a p a c i t y ( r e g a r d l e s s o f t y p e ) has assumed t h e base l o a d , d i s p l a c i n g o l d e r , l e s s e f f i c i e n t c a p a c i t y i n t o the r o l e o f meeting peak demand. 1 , 9 Thus peak power has t e n d e d t o c o s t a bout t h r e e t i m e s as much as b a s e , i n l a r g e p a r t due t o i n c r e a s e d o p e r a t i n g e x p e n s e s . 2 ^ I t s h o u l d be p o i n t e d o u t t h a t much i n t e r e s t i s now TABLE I I ORGANISATION OF SOVIET ELECTRIC POWER ISBUSTRI a»b STATE PRGMfCTION COMMITTEE OK EMBBGT AMD ELEGTIIFICATIOI OF U.S.S.R. T R e p u b l i c M i n i s t r i e s o f Power, Energy and E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n Kazakh uzbek U k r a i n e C h i e f A d m i n i s t r a t i o n s Energy and E l e c t r l f i e a -t i o n f o r S o v i e t M i n i s t r y 1. Azerbaydzhan 2. Armenia 3. Byelorussia 4. G e o r g i a 5. K i r g h i z 6. L a t v i a 7. L i t h u a n i a 8. M o l d a v i a 9 . Tadzhik 10. Turkmen 11. E s t o n i a T 'rusts 1. C o n s t r u c t i o n 2. C o n s t r u c t i o n -Assembly„,r„. 3 . -Ass A d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r C o n s t r u c t i o n o f H y d r o s t a t i o n Management o f E l # e t r i e S t a t i o n C o n s t r u c t i o n I n d u s t r i a l E n t e r p r i s e 1. C o n s t r u c t i o n I n d u s t r y 2 . Machine C o n s t r u c t i o n 3. R e p a i r — l a g i o n a l Energy Management 1. N o r t h w e s t 2. C e n t e r 3 # S outh 4* U r a l s 5. E a s t -• • • • • U n i f i e d C o n t r o l Management T o r E l e c t r i c System I s s t i t u t e — 1* Design 2 . S c i e n t i f i c R e s e a r c h C e n t r a l T e c h n i c a l E d u c a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e Bureau M a t e r i a l -T e c h n i c a l S u p p l y Department Labour S u p p l y a. As o f S p r i n g 1963. b* Skoaomlcheakaya Gazeta. J a n u a r y 25, 1964, p. 34* JO 24 b e i n g shown i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and Canada i n t h e i d e a o f a s s i g n i n g a s p e c i f i c r o l e t o d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f c a p a c i t y f o r t h e purpose o f a t t a i n i n g o v e r a l l economy. I n s o f a r as meeting peak demand i s c o n c e r n e d , c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t i s b e i n g e v i n c e d o v e r t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f u s i n g pumped s t o r a g e t o f i r m up hydro c a p a c i t y . 2 1 I n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s e n q u i r y i s n o t r e -s t r i c t e d t o h y d r o , f o r a l l means o f meeting peak demand economi-c a l l y are b e i n g i n v e s t i g a t e d . 2 2 I n r e t r o s p e c t i t would appear t h a t S o v i e t e n g i n e e r s have shown more concern o v e r meeting peak demand e c o n o m i c a l l y , as one phase i n o b t a i n i n g optimum o p e r a t i o n o f power systems, t h a n has been t h e case i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . 2 3 THE PRIME COST OF HYDROELECTRICITY Hydro i s o f t e n e x t o l l e d as t h e l e a s t e x p e n s i v e method o f g e n e r a t i n g e l e c t r i c i t y . T h i s o p i n i o n i s u s u a l l y based on a com-p a r i s o n o f prime c o s t o f e l e c t r i c power a t t h e d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f s t a t i o n , and f r e q u e n t l y r e s u l t s i n a comparison o f mean c o s t s i n w h i c h h y d r o i s c e r t a i n l y p r e s e n t e d i n a f a v o u r a b l e l i g h t . F o r example, i n 1958 t h e a v e r a g e c o s t o f t h e r m a l power has been g i v e n as .83 kopeks -per KWH, w h i l e hydro was e s t i m a t e d a t .19 kopeks per KWH.2^ Yet seldom does one come a c r o s s any d i r e c t s t a t e m e n t as t o how t h e f i g u r e s f o r e i t h e r t h e r m a l o r hydro have been d e r i v e d . J u s t what f a c t o r s a r e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t when d e t e r m i n i n g prime c o s t , e s p e c i a l l y t h a t f o r hydro, I s i m p o r t a n t , s i n c e much o f t h e argument f a v o u r i n g t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f hydro 2 5 s t a t i o n s r e s t s on t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h a t i t i s i n f a c t cheaper.2 5 T h i s c o n s t i t u t e s l o g i c a l l y t h e f i r s t problem t o be s o l v e d b e f o r e a reasoned a n a l y s i s o f t h e S o v i e t e l e c t r i c power i n d u s t r y can b e g i n . I n the S o v i e t U nion t h e f i g u r e f o r prime c o s t o f hydro-e l e c t r i c power i s d e r i v e d from c a p i t a l o u t l a y f o r t h e power s t a t i o n , equipment and dam s t r u c t u r e , i n o t h e r words, t h e a c t u a l o p e r a t i n g u n i t . I t does n o t t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t f i r s t o f a l l K t h e e x p e n d i t u r e r e q u i r e d f o r r e s e r v o i r c o n s t r u c t i o n ( c o s t s o f c l e a r -i n g , r e l o c a t i o n o f s e t t l e m e n t , r e l o c a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and c ommunication s y s t e m s ) . ° I n the case o f t h e Imeni V . I . L e n i n p l a n t n e a r Kuybyshev f o r example, r e s e r v o i r c o n s t r u c t i o n amounted t o 1 6 . 7 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e f o r the whole development, t h e l e a s t y e t f o r any o f the s t a t i o n s o f t h e V o l g a -Kama system.27 S e c o n d l y , t h e r e i s n e i t h e r i n t e r e s t charged on c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t n o r d e p r e c i a t i o n . The i n t e r e s t r a t e i n N o r t h A m e r i c a o f c o u r s e can be t h e d e c i d i n g f a c t o r i n t h e d e v e l -opment o f a hydro s i t e , so t h a t s i m p l e c o s t comparisons w i t h American h y d r o s t a t i o n s a r e o f l i t t l e v a l u e . 2 9 The change i n prime c o s t o f e l e c t r i c i t y when t h e above f a c t o r s a r e i n c l u d e d has been i l l u s t r a t e d i n Appendix A. I n t h e f i r s t example, t h e u s u a l S o v i e t method i s f o l l o w e d (where s i m p l e a m o r t i z a t i o n i s t h e m a j o r e l e m e n t ) , g i v i n g a prime c o s t o f . 2 2 kopeks p e r KWH. By s i m p l y assuming t h a t r e s e r v o i r c o s t s a c c o u n t f o r 20 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l c a p i t a l o u t l a y t h e prime c o s t 26 r i s e s t o .27 kopeks p e r KWH. F i n a l l y , when i n t e r e s t i s i n c l u d e d i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n , t h e r e i s an i n c r e a s e t o .47 kopeks. T h i s c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s t h e degree t o whi c h prime c o s t can be a f f e c t e d by t h e i n c l u s i o n o f thes e f a c t o r s , and emphasizes how i m p o r t a n t i t i s t h a t t h e method o f d e r i v a t i o n be r e c o g n i z e d a t the o u t s e t . Some S o v i e t e c o n o m i s t s have q u e s t i o n e d t h e method o f d e r i v i n g p rime c o s t o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y and a d d i t i o n a l l y , t h e way i n w h i c h p a r t o f t h e expense o f hydro p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n i s charged o f f t o b e n e f i t s s u c h as i r r i g a t i o n and stream r e g u l a t i o n , a r g u i n g f o r t h e i n c l u s i o n o f f u l l c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e i n b a s i c c a l c u l a t i o n s . 3 0 The above i s n o t i n t e n d e d t o i m p l y t h a t a l l f a c t o r s a r e n e c e s s a r i l y t a k e n i n t o account when t h e prime c o s t o f t h e r m a l power i s computed, 3 1 even though t o t a l i n v e s t m e n t f o r e q u i v a -l e n t c a p a c i t y i s g e n e r a l l y l e s s , but i t s h o u l d be made c l e a r t h a t t h e c o s t o f hydro power i s u n d e r e s t i m a t e d t o t h e e x t e n t a t l e a s t t h a t r e s e r v o i r c o s t s a r e o m i t t e d . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , i t i s t h e s m a l l t h e r m a l s t a t i o n s u s i n g e x p e n s i v e c o a l ( i m p o r t e d o r o f low c a l o r i f i c v a l u e ) and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , p e a t , w h i c h c o l -l e c t i v e l y a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e h i g h e r a v e r a g e c o s t o f t h e r m a l p o w e r . 3 2 The f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n n e g l e c t s one e s s e n t i a l f a c t o r , t h a t prime c o s t o f e l e c t r i c power v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o the degr e e o f u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r s t a t i o n . Thus prime c o s t o f power from a s t a t i o n used o n l y 2,000 hours a y e a r i s o b v i o u s l y g o i n g t o be h i g h e r t h a n t h a t o f a p l a n t b e i n g u sed 4,000 h o u r s p e r y e a r , s i n c e - a h i g h e r p r i c e p e r k i l o w a t t h o u r i s n e c e s s a r y i f f i x e d c o s t s a r e t o be cove r e d (assuming e q u a l a m o r t i z a t i o n p e r i o d s ) . T h e r e f o r e , i n systems where hydro c o n s t i t u t e s a major s h a r e o f c a p a c i t y t h e r e i s i n c e n t i v e f o r g r e a t e r i n t e r -c o n n e c t i o n so t h a t t h e same c a p a c i t y i s a l t e r n a t e l y used i n d i f f e r e n t c i r c u i t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d o f maximum r u n o f f , t h u s g i v i n g a h i g h e r p l a n t f a c t o r and c o n s e q u e n t l y l o w e r c o s t o f power. M o r e o v e r , as t h e i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y o f a g r i d s y s t e m i n c r e a s e s t h e r e q u i r e d r e s e r v e c a p a c i t y d e c l i n e s r e l a t i v e l y , g i v i n g r i s e t o a d d i t i o n a l s a v i n g s . 3 3 W i t h t h e s e f a c t s i n mind, i t i s n e c e s s a r y now t o put t h e t o p i c i n t o p r o p e r p e r s p e c t i v e t h r o u g h a b r i e f c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e g e n e r a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e S o v i e t e l e c t r i c power i n d u s t r y and an a n a l y s i s o f the c h a n g i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y . 28 REFERENCES: CHAPTER I I 1. For example Soviet engineers are further advanced i n the use of prefabricated concrete sections i n dam construction. Large Dams of the U.S.S.R., A Translation Prepared by the "National Science Foundation, U.S. Government Pr i n t i n g O f f i c e , Washington, D.C., 1963, p. XV. 2. F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki SSSR. (Development of Hydroelectric Energy in the U.S.S.R.), I z d a t e l ' -stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 60. 3. K.P. Nair, Hydro-Electric Resources of India, Sixth World Power Conference: Transformation of Water Power, Melbourne, 1962, p. 2330. 4. This i s apparent from an examination of S.F. Shershov, Bely Ugol. (White Coal), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1957, pp. 82-3. 5. This approach dealt with i n S. Schurr, _et a l . , Energy  i n the American Economy, 1850-1975. An Economic Study of Its  History and Prospects. Resources f o r the Future, John Hopkins Press, Baltimore, I960, pp. 441-2. 6. See f o r example F. Ya. Nesteruk, l o c . c i t . 7. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SS3R v 1962 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 162. 8. This i s not to i n f e r that t h i s aspect i s neglected only i n Soviet estimates. See K.P. Nair, l o c . c i t . 9. As for example i n L.O. Saatchjan, G.N. L y a l i k , The Role of Water Power i n the Formation of Large Power Systems and the Consolidated System i n the Soviet Union, The F i f t h World Power  Conference: Production of Hydraulic Energy. Montreal. 1958, p. 627. 10. This point elaborated on i n Chapter TV. 11. See A.A. Bestchinsky, Water Power i n Energy Systems, Sixth World Power Conference: Transformation of Water Power. Melbourne, 1962, p. 2346. 12. L. Kirchmeyer, Economic Operation of Power Systems. Wiley and Sons, New York, 1958, pp. 168-9. 13. G.A. Russo (ed.), Hydroelectric Power Stations of the  Volga and Kama Cascade Systems, (Volzhskii i Kamskii Kaskady Gi d r o e l e k t r b s t a n t s i i , Moskva, I960), Published f o r the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C, by the I s r a e l Program f o r S c i e n t i f i c Translations, Jerusalem, 1 9 6 3 , p. 1 1 4 . 1 4 . For a discussion of these and other t e c h n i c a l consider-ations see, The Covering of Peak Loads i n E l e c t r i c i t y Supply  Networks, Economic Commission for Europe, United Nations, 1 9 6 3 , p a r t i c u l a r l y pages 1 3 - 3 4 . 1 5 . His cri t i c i s m s put forward i n Naum Jasny, A Note on Rationality and E f f i c i e n c y i n the Soviet Economy, I, Soviet  Studies, Vol. XII, A p r i l 1961, No. 4 , pp. 3 6 9 - 7 0 ; and Naum Jasny, Essays oh the Soviet Economy, I n s t i t u t e for the Study of the U.S.S.R., Series 1, No. 6 3, February 1 9 6 2 , Munich, p. 2 1 1 . 1 6 . The storage capacity of res e r v o i r s i n European Russia tends to be affected adversely by two f a c t o r s , topographic and economic. The l a t t e r because valuable a g r i c u l t u r a l land i s often l o s t to production through extensive f l o o d i n g . ' The e f f e c t of topography i s dealt with i n Chapter XV i n the comparison of Bratsk and Kuybyshev hydro s t a t i o n s . 1 7 . G.A* Russo, op. c i t . , p. 1 1 6 . 18. This discussion owes much to a conversation with H.M. E l l i s , B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, March 1 1 , 1 9 6 5 . 19 . See Federal Power Commission, National Power Survey, Advisory Committee Report #1 on Methods of Carrying Peak Loads  and Methods of Reducing Peak Loads, Prepared by a Subcommittee of the Generating Stations Special Technical Committee, January 1 9 6 3 , p. 1; and Constantine Bary, Operational Economics of  E l e c t r i c U t i l i t i e s , Columbia U n i v e r s i t y Press, New York, London, 1 9 6 3 , p. 128. 2 0 . A.A. Bestchinsky, OJD. c i t . , p. 2 3 4 4 . 2 1 . See J.K. D i l l a r d , C.J. Baldwin, The Impact of Pooling on Power System Planning, E l e c t r i c a l World, March 3 0 , 1 9 6 4 , p. 2 2 . Pumped storage hydro i s being used currently to meet peak demand i n the power systems of Western Europe and i s under study i n the Soviet Union, The Covering of Peak Loads . . ., op. c i t . , pp. 4 & - 5 0 . 2 2 . Federal Power Commission, l o c . c i t . 2 3 . Optimum operation of a power system i s regarded simply 30 as minimizing t o t a l operational cost which as i n f e r r e d means keeping f u e l expenditures down. D.L. Johnson, P.R. Menon, Variational Methods of Hydro-Usage Optimation, Institute of  E l e c t r i c a l and E l e c t r o n i c Engineers, Transactions on Power  Apparatus and Systems, Sp e c i a l Supplement. 1963, P. 824. 2 4 . P. S. Neporozhniy, Problemy Sploshnoy E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i  SSSR. (Problems of the Complete E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of the U.S.S.R.), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, I960, p. 1 4 . 2 5 . See V. l a . Steklov, Leninskii Plan E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i v  Deystvii, (Lenin's Plan f o r E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i n Operation), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1964, pp. 1 4 0 - 5 . 26. I f other factors were taken into account one would assume that t h i s would be indicated, since prime cost would be affected adversely from the point of view of the proponent. (See Appendix A). 2 7 . G. A. Russo (ed.), op_. c i t . , p. 213. 28. Naum Jasny, op. c i t . , p. 368. 2 9 . The high interest rate has held back development i n I t a l y , for example K.D. Lavrenenko, U.S.S.R. Power Developments and International Cooperation, S i x t h World Power Conference: Transformation of Water Power, Melbourne, 1962, p. 5003. 30. See, Z.F. Chukhanov, Soviet's Find Capital Costs Make Hydro Less Economical, (from Teploenergetika, p a r t i a l t r a n s l a -t i o n ) , commented on by P. Sporn, E l e c t r i c a l World. August 20, 1962, pp. 56-9. In t h i s context another i n t e r e s t i n g suggestion i s to compute cost of power as a function of r i v e r flow, i n other words have annual amortization charges vary according to y e a r l y flow v a r i a t i o n from the mean; G. Chernikov, Sebestoimost i Rechnogo Stoka, (Prime Cost and River Flow), Ekonomicheskaya  Gazeta, June 2 3 , 1962, p. 35. 31. For example, subsidization of r a i l transport of coal, although as Blackman points out, this would be exceedingly d i f f i c u l t to pin down. James H. Blackman, Comment on J.P. Hardt's, Investment P o l i c y i n the Soviet Electric-Power Industry, Value and Plan' Economic Calculation and Organization i n Eastern  Europe, (ed. G. Grossman), University of C a l i f o r n i a Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles, I960, p. 316. 3 2 . This point w i l l be dealt with i n subsequent chapters. 3 3 . A. Beschinskiy, E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a i Progress Obshchest-31 vennogo Rroizvod'stva, ( E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i n the Progress of Social Production), Voprosy Ekonomiki. Moskva, November 1961, pp. 40-1. REFERENCES: FIGURES Figure 3. Data on d i s t r i b u t i o n of dam s i t e s based on, S.F. Shershov, Bely Ugol. (White Coal), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1957, pp. 82-83; f o r extent of continuous permafrost, J.P. Cole, F.C. German, A Geography of the Soviet Union: A Background to a  Planned Economy. Butterworth. London. 1961. p. 72. Figure 4. Taken from, I.T. Novikov, (ed.), Energetika  SSSR. (Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1961, p. 73. CHAPTER I I I THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY 1920—1965 The a b s o l u t e a n n u a l r a t e o f g r o w t h o f the S o v i e t e l e c t r i c power i n d u s t r y has i n c r e a s e d r a p i d l y , e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e t h e end o f t h e Second World War. P r e s e n t l y c a p a c i t y i s e x p a n d i n g a t t h e r a t e o f 10-12 MKW p e r y e a r , and by 1970 t h i s i n c r e a s e i s s c h e d u l e d t o be o f t h e o r d e r o f 20-25 MKW.1 One i s l e d t o e n q u i r e as t o where growth i n t h e p a s t has t a k e n p l a c e , has t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e i n d u s t r y a l t e r e d and i n d e e d , where might f u t u r e g r o w t h be e x p e c t e d ? The l a t t e r q u e s t i o n w i l l be d e a l t w i t h i n t h e subsequent r e g i o n a l c h a p t e r s , o n l y t h e changes up t o t h e p r e s e n t b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d h e r e . B e f o r e b e g i n n i n g t h i s a s p e c t o f t h e s t u d y t h e c u r r e n t magnitude o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y , i t s g e n e r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and d i s t r i b u t i o n w i l l be o u t l i n e d . What f a c t o r s have determined t h e e x i s t i n g p a t t e r n a r e the s u b j e c t o f the e n s u i n g d i s c u s s i o n . THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY—SCALE, CHARACTERISTICS, AND DISTRIBUTION The magnitude o f t h e e l e c t r i c power i n d u s t r y has been i n d i c a t e d i n F i g u r e I o f t h e i n t r o d u c t o r y c h a p t e r , and t h i s c o u p l e d w i t h T a b l e I I I p r o v i d e s one w i t h an o v e r v i e w o f t h e g r o w t h o f c a p a c i t y by t y p e s i n c e 1920. Hydro had g r a d u a l l y TABLE I I I GENERATING CAPACITY BY TYPE SELECTED YEARS a — Steam Condensing ' Heat and P o w e r — S t e a m T o t a l H y d r o e l e c t r i c (GRES- -KES) By-Product (TETS) C a p a c i t y P e r c e n t P e r c e n t P e r c e n t C a p a c i t y o f T o t a l C a p a c i t y o f T o t a l C a p a c i t y o f T o t a l C a p a c i t y MKW C a p a c i t y MKW C a p a c i t y MKW C a p a c i t y MKW 1928 . 12 6.3$ 1.8 9 2 . 1 $ . 0 4 2.3% 1.9 1940 1.6 14.1 7.4 66 .0 2 .2 19.7 11.2 1945 1.3 11 .2 7.6 68.6 2 . 2 19.6 11.1 1950 3 . 2 16.2 13.4 68.6 3.0 1 5 . 2 19.6 1955 6.0 16.1 20.2 54.6 11.0 29.3 37 .2 1958 10.8 2 0 . 2 31.3 57.9 12.0 22.5 53.6 1962 18.6 22.5 43.3 5S.7 15.6 18.8 82.5 a. C a p a c i t y f i g u r e s up t o and i n c l u d i n g 195& based on J . P . H a r d t , Investment  P o l i c y i n the S o v i e t E l e c t r i c - P o w e r I n d u s t r y , V a l u e and P l a n : C a l c u l a t i o n and  O r g a n i z a t i o n i n E a s t e r n Europe, ( e d . G. Grossman), U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s , B e r k e l e y and Los A n g e l e s , I960, p. 298; f o r 1962 f r o m S o v e t s k a y a E n e r g e t i k a , ( u n s i g n e d ) , ( S o v i e t E n e r g y ) , E l e k t r i c h e s k i y e S t a n t s i i , November 1963, p. 4. F o r a n n u a l i n c r e a s e i n t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y s i n c e 1920, see Appendix D. 34 i n c r e a s e d i t s r e l a t i v e s h a r e from l e s s t h a n 1 t o around 20 p e r -c e n t , where i t has rem a i n e d d u r i n g t h e l a s t few y e a r s . I t has m a i n t a i n e d i t s share p r i m a r i l y as a r e s u l t o f t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s e v e r a l v e r y l a r g e hydro p l a n t s i n C e n t r a l S i b e r i a , w h i c h a r e th e most s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e o f t h e c u r r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y d e p i c t e d on F i g u r e 5. The s t a t i o n s i n C e n t r a l S i b e r i a a r e c e r t a i n l y u n c h a l l e n g e d i n terms o f s c a l e , t h e l a r g e s t N o r t h American p l a n t i s t h a t u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n now a t t h e P o r t a g e M o u n t a i n s i t e on t h e Peace R i v e r (2.3 MKW), w h i c h i s l e s s t h a n t w o - t h i r d s t h e i r a v e r a g e c a p a c i t y . Coupled w i t h t h i s i n c r e a s e i n s c a l e has been t h e growth i n t h e s i z e o f g e n e r a t i n g u n i t s , w i t h a r a t e d c a p a c i t y o f up t o .5 MKW f o r hydro s t a t i o n s and up t o .3 MKW f o r t h e r m a l , depending on t h e f u e l u s e d . 2 I n 1962, f o r example, 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y put i n t o o p e r a t i o n was i n t h e .15-.2 MKW p e r u n i t r a n g e . 3 T a b l e I I I i n d i c a t e s t h e r e i s a d i s t i n c t i o n t o be made w i t h i n t h e g e n e r a l c a t e g o r y o f t h e r m a l p l a n t s . The d i f f e r e n c e between h e a t and power s t a t i o n s (TETS) and t h e r m a l c o n d e n s a t i o n p l a n t s (GRES o r KES) i s one o f f u n c t i o n . ^ I n t h e f i r s t t y p e t h e steam r a i s e d t o t u r n t h e t u r b i n e i s u t i l i z e d as a b y - p r o d u c t f o r h e a t i n g p u r p o s e s , b o t h i n d u s t r i a l and d o m e s t i c . C o n d e n s a t i o n p l a n t s do n o t have t h i s a u x i l i a r y f u n c t i o n and a r e b u i l t s i m p l y t o g e n e r a t e e l e c t r i c i t y . R e c e n t t e c h n i c a l changes have c o n t r i b u t e d much t o t h e i n -c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e r m a l p l a n t s . O p e r a t i o n a t much h i g h e r 36 temperatures and pressures (500-600°C and 200-300 ata, twice that possible 15 years ago) have permitted maximum value to be derived from fuels of a l l types. In fact, since 1928 the required expen-diture of fuel (in terms of conventional .fuel equivalent) per KWH generated, has declined from 820 grams to 435 in 1960.^ Although the most striking developments in the Soviet electric power industry have been associated with hydroelectric construction, important changes have also occurred in the types of fuel consumed by thermal plants. While coal has remained the primary fuel for thermal plants, there has been considerable shifting among the other sources. Until the Second World War, peat played a comparatively important role, and even as late as I960 was s t i l l contributing6 percent of total generated power (Table IV).° The consumption of peat has from the outset been a reflection of governmental policy pro-moting the u t i l i z a t i o n of local energy resources, rather than importing fuels, an alternative which even at present has many disadvantages in view of the overloaded transport systems. Again these figures are totals and hide many regional variations for as w i l l be pointed out later, peat in one region s t i l l provides close to 40 percent of t o t a l electric power. Both o i l and gas of-late have completely overshadowed peat, the latter being scheduled to increase i t s relative share at the specific expense of coal.? Unfortunately, 1961 i s the last date for which s t a t i s t i c a l data on the types of fuel consumed by TABLE IV 37 PERCENT GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY BY TYPE OF FUEL THERMAL POWER STATIONS (TETS, KES, GRES) 1935 1940 1955 d 1 9 6 l f ( P l a n n e d ) 1 1 1965 G o a l — — 76.4 65.5 55.0 P e a t a 2.14 b 20. O c 9.1 7.0 s 5.2 S h a l e — — 1.22 e 2.0 4.6 O i l — — 8.98 8.5 15.0 Gas — — 4.1 17.0 18.0 a. Not i n d i c a t e d , b u t l i k e l y i n c l u d e s f i r e w o o d , a t p r e s e n t a v e r y i n s i g n i f i c a n t s o u r c e . b. F. H j u l s t r b m , The Economic Geography o f E l e c t r i c i t y . P a p e r s f r o m the G e o g r a p h i c a l I n s t i t u t e , U p s a l a U n i v e r s i t y , 1942, p. 174. c. D.G. Z h i m e r i n , I s t o r i y a E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i SSSR. ( H i s t o r y o f t h e E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n o f t h e U.S.S.R.), I z d a t e l ' s t v o S o t s i a l ' n o -Ekonomicheskoy L i t e r a t u r y , Moskva, 1962, p. 31. d. M i n i s t e r s t v o E l e k t r o s t a n t s i i SSSR, E n e r g e t i c h e s k o y e  S t r o i t e l ' s t v o SSSR z a 40 L e t (1917-1957), (Development o f Energy Over the P a s t 40 Years [1917-1957J), Gosudarstvennoye E n e r g e t -i c h e s k o y e I z d a t e l ' s t v o , Moskva, 195°, p. -19. e. T h i s f i g u r e has been a r r i v e d a t by s u b t r a c t i n g t h e 8.98 p e r c e n t a g e f i g u r e g i v e n f o r o i l by Hodgkins from a 10.2 f i g u r e f o r b o t h o i l and s h a l e g i v e n i n t h e f o r e g o i n g r e f e r e n c e . J.A. Hodgkins, S o v i e t Power. E n e r g y Resources. P r o d u c t i o n and P o t e n t i a l , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., 1961, p. 121. f . I.M. Omuprakov, Trends i n Development o f t h e U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n and New T e c h n i c s o f Power I n d u s t r y o f t h e S o v i e t  U n i o n . Moscow. August 1963. P. 6. g. P e a t and s h a l e e s t i m a t e s are based on t h e 9 p e r c e n t f i g u r e f o r b o t h f u e l s quoted i n Omuprakov, I b i d . 38 h. F i g u r e f o r s h a l e o f 4»6 p e r c e n t r e f l e c t s i n c r e a s e d u se i n the B a l t i c S t a t e s p a r t i c u l a r l y . The 2.2 p e r c e n t not a c c o u n t e d f o r c o n s i s t s o f " o t h e r f u e l s , " ( p r o b a b l y f i r e w o o d ) . A.A. Stepankov, Ekonomicheskaya E f f e k t i v n o s t T P r o i z v o d s t v a i K a p i t a l * - n y k h V l o z h e n i y , (Economic E f f e c t i v e n e s s o f P r o d u c t i o n and C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t ) , I z d a t e l ' s t v o A k a d e m i i Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 97. e l e c t r i c power s t a t i o n s i s a v a i l a b l e . However, i t i s p o s s i b l e t o g a i n some a d d i t i o n a l i n s i g h t s i n c e p ercentage s t a t i s t i c s a re g i v e n f o r the v a r i o u s u s e s o f f u e l s . The f i g u r e s f o r gas and o i l a r e shown i n T a b l e V. The t a b l e i n d i c a t e s the r a p i d i n -c r e a s e i n a b s o l u t e v a l u e o f gas consumed i n t h e r m a l p l a n t s d u r i n g t h e two y e a r s p r i o r t o 1962.** The use o f gas as a f u e l v a r i e s r e g i o n a l l y , b u t whether t h i s g e n e r a l i n c r e a s e w i l l con-t i n u e i s an i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n , d i s c u s s i o n o f w h i c h i s r e s e r v e d f o r subsequent c h a p t e r s . W i t h t h i s g e n e r a l o v e r v i e w o f t h e i n d u s t r y ' s c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s , i t remains now t o c o n s i d e r how t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n d e p i c t e d on F i g u r e 5 has e v o l v e d , a t a s k which must t a k e f u l l c o g n i z a n c e o f government p o l i c i e s . THE GOELRO AND THE FIVE YEAR PLANS W h i l e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i s o f o b v i o u s i m p o r t a n c e i n a l l c o u n t r i e s , i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t h e heavy emphasis on i t has i n l a r g e measure been t h e r e s u l t o f L e n i n ' s i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n concept w i t h h i s s c i e n t i f i c t h e o r y f o r t h e f o r -m a t i o n o f a s o c i a l i s t s t a t e . Thus i t has been more t h a n s i m p l y a r e q u i s i t e f o r an expanding economy, as i s i m p l i e d i n h i s o f t - q u o t e d d i c t u m , "Communism i s , S o v i e t power p l u s t h e e l e c t r i -f i c a t i o n o f the whole c o u n t r y , f o r w i t h o u t e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n p r o -g r e s s i n i n d u s t r y i s i m p o s s i b l e . " 9 To r e a l i z e t h i s o b j e c t i v e t h e Commission f o r E l a b o r a t i n g t h e P l a n f o r The Governmental 40 TABLE Y SHARE OF TOTAL NATURAL GAS AND OIL PRODUCTION USED AS FUEL IN POWER STATIONS 1958a 1960D 1962C Gas P e r c e n t A b s o l u t e V a l u e " M. Cubic M e t e r s 9,971 34.6 10,419.69 2 3 16,175.5 2 2 . 5 Gas P e r c e n t 10.1 11.1 a. S t a t i s t i c s f r o m , J .A. Hodgkins, S o v i e t Power. Energy- Resources T Production and P o t e n t i a l T P r e n t i c e - H a l l , Englewood C l i f f s , N.J. 1961, p. 136. b. P e r c e n t a g e from, Osnovnye P o k a z a t e l i T o p l i v n o -E n e r g e t i c h e s k o g o B a l a n s a za I 9 6 0 , Godu, ( B a s i c I n d i c e s o f the F u e l - E n e r g y B a l a n c e i n I 9 6 0 ) , V e s t n i k S t a t i s t i k i . May, 1962, p. 89. c. Percentage f r o m , A. R i z n i k , S. L i t v a k , T o p l i v n o -E n e r g e t i c h e s k i y Balans SSSR z a 1962, Godu, ( F u e l Energy B a l a n c e o f the U.S.S.R. i n 1962), V e s t n i k S t a t i s t i k i . May, 1964, p. 17. d. A b s o l u t e v a l u e computed; t o t a l p r o d u c t i o n f i g u r e s o f gas f r o m , Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i E z h e g o d n i k , ( S t a t i s t i c a l Year B o o k ) , T s e n t r a l ' n o y e S t a t i s t i c h e s -k oye U p r a v l e n i y e p r i Sovete M i n i s t r o v SSSR, p. 158. Note: Consumption o f manuf a c t u r e d gas by t h e r m a l p l a n t s m i n i m a l , 203 M. c u b i c meters i n 1962, Annual B u l l e t i n o f E l e c t r i c Energy  S t a t i s t i c s f o r Europe. U n i t e d N a t i o n s , New York, 1963, p. 43. 41 Elec t r i f i c a t i o n of Russia (GOELRO) was established early in the post-revolutionary years (1920). 1 0 Its aim was the restoration and reconstruction of industry generally, with increased genera-tion of electric power and interconnection of installed capacity as the fundamental basis. EARLY SOVIET DEVELOPMENTS That the Soviet e l e c t r i c power industry was comparatively underdeveloped in the early 1920Ts is evident from Figure I. The GOELRO Plan was an attempt to rectify this state of a f f a i r s . This i s not to infer that the industry had been neglected en-t i r e l y during the pre-Soviet period, for considerable interest was accorded electrification, i n particular over the possibility of extensive hydro development on the Svir River. 1 1 Obviously very few plans had come to fruition. Moreover, the limited gen-erating capacity, 1.098 MKW in 1913, was underutilized, there being but a 20 percent average plant f a c t o r . 1 2 Therefore, increased u t i l i z a t i o n of existing capacity as well as new con-struction was promulgated under the GOELRO Plan. It was not u n t i l 1925, however, that the Soviets were able to improve on the pre-World War I situation. The 1.5 MKW capacity target set for the 15 year GOELRO Plan does not appear especially ambitious u n t i l one realizes that i t exceeded the total Soviet installed capacity i n 1921. One source has suggested that the GOELRO Plan, as a plan, was not as success-42 f u l as i s g e n e r a l l y s upposed, f o r between 1921 and 1930 t h e y e a r l y t a r g e t was never met. I t sh o u l d be p o i n t e d out t h a t t h e s e d e f i c i e n c i e s were more t h a n made up d u r i n g 1931, t h e o v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e b e i n g r eached a t t h i s t i m e , f o u r y e a r s ahead o f p l a n . 1 ^ I n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e GOELRO P l a n , c o n s t r u c t i o n o f what were t h e n l a r g e s c a l e r e g i o n a l e l e c t r i c s t a t i o n s was e m p h a s i z e d . 1 ^ Because o f t h e d i f f i c u l t p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the r i v e r b a s i n s i n European R u s s i a , f r om t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f h y d r a u l i c e n g i n e e r i n g , t h e r m a l c a p a c i t y p r e d o m i n a t e d from t h e o u t s e t (see T a b l e I I I ) . The g e n e r a l s h o r t a g e o f i n v e s t m e n t c a p i t a l c o u p l e d w i t h t h e d r i v i n g d e s i r e t o expand c a p a c i t i e s as r a p i d l y as pos-s i b l e a l s o tended t o encourage t h e b u i l d i n g o f t h e r m a l p l a n t s . The F i v e Year P l a n s i n i t i a t e d i n 1928 a m p l i f i e d t h e GOELRO emphasis on e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n , t h e o b j e c t i v e b e i n g t o n . . • con-t i n u e t h e p o l i c y o f u t i l i z i n g more e x t e n s i v e l y s uch l o c a l f u e l s as Moscow b a s i n , U r a l , E a s t S i b e r i a n and C e n t r a l A s i a n c o a l as w e l l as p e a t and o i l s h a l e , and e s p e c i a l l y t h e wat e r power r e s o u r c e s f o r t h e s u p p l y o f e l e c t r i c i t y . n 1 ^ I n s p i t e o f t h i s emphasis on hydr o development i t remained a v e r y s m a l l share o f t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y . The .2 MKW Dneproges s t a t i o n begun i n 1928 ( s u b s e q u e n t l y r a i s e d t o .56 MKW i n 1935) w h i l e r e c e i v i n g t h e b r u n t o f t h e p u b l i c i t y was r a t h e r an anomaly w i t h r e s p e c t t o s i z e , as F i g u r e 6 r e v e a l s . 1 0 The m a j o r i t y o f p l a n t s were s m a l l i n s c a l e and l o c a t e d i n r e g i o n s f o r t h e most p a r t c o n d u c i v e t o 43 hydraulic construction, (e.g., Northwest, Central Caucasus). Government decision to include heat and power stations (TETS) in the overall ele c t r i f i c a t i o n plan did not come un t i l 1931, although this had been promulgated for some time as being by far the most economic and rational use of thermal generating capacity, 1 7 While heating networks were to be organized as "organic components" of the power systems, l i t t l e in the way of actual development was carried out at this time (see Table III), let the concept of integrating the distribution of electric power and heat on a large scale, and the development that did take place, are certainly of importance• 0 In the Second Five Year Plan (1932-1937) there was i n i -tiated a trend which had significant ramifications for the distribution of installed generating capacity. The creation of the Urals-Kuznetsk Combine and the resultant industrial expan-sion i n Central Siberia witnessed construction of several thermal stations, Kemerovo, .148 MKW planned capacity being the large s t . 1 9 While actual policy continued to emphasize the i n -herent advantages i n harnessing water power, the absence of any hydroelectric development in the Central Siberian region was not indicative of a paucity of knowledge regarding the area's poten-t i a l , for this had long been recognized. It simply reflected the absence of a market within contemporary feasible transmission dis-tance, 2 0 combined with, as mentioned before, the perennial desire to rapidly expand capacity. Figure 6 clearly indicates the change i n distribution of electrical generating capacity between 1928 and 1935. By 1935, the end of the original GOELRO Plan, three major concentrations were evident; the Moscow urban area, the Donbass industrial belt of the South Ukraine, and the Urals, a l l traditional centers of Russian industry* Within these regions were also the embryo of power networks as depicted on Figure 6. Although the relative gain in installed capacity was not as great as that of the First Five Year Plan, in absolute terms considerable progress had been made (2.7 MKW as compared to 3.6 MKW).21 During the Third Five Year Plan (1938-1942) increased attention was being given the Volga-Kama system, with large scale development the keynote. Throughout this period a number of schemes were suggested, their fulfillment being precluded largely as a result of the paucity of geologic, hydrologic and engineering d a t a . 2 2 These plans did have a positive aspect i n that detailed surveys of this nature were started. The Ivan 1-kovo, Uglich and Rybinsk stations on the Volga b u i l t during the mid-thirties primarily to improve navigation, did provide some important data for dam construction, apparently sufficient enough so that, "In 1937 the Party and Government adopted the decision to construct a very large hydroelectric station on the Volga (near Kuybyshev); however, the construction ceased in the pre-paratory stage owing to the outbreak of World War I I . " 2 ^ With the impending threat of war, the industrialization of t h e e a s t e r n r e g i o n s t o o k on a s t r a t e g i c v a l u e . I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h government d e c i s i o n e r e c t i o n o f s m a l l s c a l e t h e r m a l s t a t i o n s was e m p h a s i z e d . 2 ^ War i t s e l f saw 3 .4 MKW o f c a p a c i t y , p r i m a r i l y t h e r m a l , s p r i n g up i n the U r a l s , S i b e r i a , K a z a k h s t a n and C e n t r a l A s i a and t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f 5 MKW o f c a p a c i t y and 10,000 KM o f t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e i n European R u s s i a . 2 5 As a r e s u l t , t h e gener-a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c power i n t h e e a s t e r n r e g i o n s ( i n c l u d i n g the U r a l s ) r o s e from 22 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l i n 1940 t o 48 p e r c e n t i n 1 9 4 5 . 2 6 By t h i s l a t t e r d a t e , t h e 11 MKW c a p a c i t y l e v e l o f I94O had been r e - a t t a i n e d , b u t not w i t h o u t a fundamental a l t e r -a t i o n i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n . 2 ? Thus t h i s p e r i o d i s i m p o r t a n t be-cause o f t h e t r e n d s i n i t i a t e d r a t h e r t h a n t h e a c t u a l s c a l e o f development. POST-WAR POLICIES, O n l y i n the immediate post-war p e r i o d was i t f i n a l l y con-ceded t h a t t h e r u r a l a r e a s r e q u i r e d a t t e n t i o n . I n 1940 t h e i n -s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y o f a g r i c u l t u r a l s t a t i o n s , .275 MKW, p r o d u c e d l e s s t h a n 1 p e r c e n t o f t h e S o v i e t Union's t o t a l g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c p o w e r . 2 8 E r i c h T h i e l has o u t l i n e d t h e c o n s i d e r a b l e s t e p s t a k e n a f t e r 1945 t o e l e c t r i f y t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s m a l l s c a l e p l a n t s b e i n g the e x p e d i e n t a l -t e r n a t i v e t o " w i d e l y r a m i f i e d h i g h - t e n s i o n n e t w o r k s « n 2 9 i t s h o u l d be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e emphasis on s m a l l u n i t s a t t h i s t i m e was i n d i r e c t response t o government d e c i s i o n . I n s p i t e o f 47 the emphasis i t was only i n the l a t e 1950's that the a g r i c u l -t u r a l sector attained a r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l of e l e c t r i f i c a -t i o n . With the subsequent promotion of large scale hydro pro-jects and an ever growing low voltage transmission network, i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g to see a rapid decline i n the number of small c o l l e c t i v e and state farm hydro plants (2,600 i n operation i n 1962, a decline of 4,000 i n a decade).3° These plants were gen-e r a l l y of l e s s than 10,000 KW capacity. Reconstruction rather than new construction of major hydro stations.in European Russia was.characteristic of the Fourth Five Year Plan (1946-1950). In Central S i b e r i a , two new projects were undertaken i n order to meet the growing i n d u s t r i a l demand f o r power; Irkutsk, .67 MKW, and Novosibirsk, .4 MKW.31 As i n the immediate pre-war era, general trends were conditioned not so much by economic considerations, rather by others deemed to be of greater s i g n i f i c a n c e ; s t r a t e g i c i n the immediate pre-war, and i n the post-war, the need to expand capacity r a p i d l y . With regard to the l a t t e r point, there had always been a discrepancy between planned and a c t u a l expansion of i n s t a l l e d capacity as Table VI reveals, which doubtless constituted a serious handicap to indus-t r i a l expansion i n certain areas. Nevertheless -t the i n s t a l l a t i o n of 9 MKW of generating capacity i n the f i v e year period was no small achievement .3 2 In 1950 with the introduction of a new Five Year Plan a major p o l i c y change was announced, the decision to undertake a 43 TABLE VI PLANNED AND ACTUAL EXPANSION OF INSTALLED CAPACITY BY FIVE YEAR PLANa Period Planned Installed Fulfillment (installed as a percent of planned capacity) F i r s t 1928-32 5.5-6.7 2.9 70-78 Second 1932-37 6.2 3.4 55 Third 1938-42 7.1 -1.4 •M mm Fourth 1946-50 11.7 9.3 80 Fifth 1950-55b 15.6 17.6 113 Sixth 1955-60c 32.7 29.5 95 a. Data to the end of the Fourth Five Year Plan from John P. Hardt, Economics of the Soviet Electric Power Industry. Ph.D. Thesis, Cornell University, 1955, Microfilm, p. 94. b. Calculated from information given by Naum Jasny, Essays on the Soviet Economy. Institute for the Study of the U.S.S.R., Series 1, No. 63, February 1962, Munich, p. 266. c. While the Sixth Five Year Plan was interruped, actual expansion by I960 was considerable and as indicated, was only 5 percent off the original plan. 49 number o f v e r y l a r g e m u l t i - p u r p o s e p r o j e c t s on t h e Volga-Kama c a s c a d e . C o n s t r u c t i o n commenced a t Kuybyshev (2.3- MKW) i n 1950, but on a f a r l a r g e r s c a l e t h a n had been e n v i s i o n e d i n 1937, and at V o l g o g r a d ( S t a l i n g r a d , 2.5 MKW) i n 1954.^3 T h i s i n i t i a t e d a p e r i o d d u r i n g which t h e v i r t u e s o f h a r n e s s i n g water power were c o n s t a n t l y e x t o l l e d . The m o t i v a t i o n b e h i n d t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f th e V o l g a p r o j e c t s must be seen i n terms o f m u l t i p l e f u n c t i o n s where n a v i g a t i o n , f l o o d c o n t r o l , i r r i g a t i o n and even f i s h i n g , a r e e q u a l l y as i m p o r t a n t as t h e e l e c t r i c e nergy g e n e r a t e d . 34 A l -though t h e c a p a c i t y i n s t a l l e d d u r i n g t h e p r e v i o u s F i v e Y e a r P l a n was i n d e e d c o n s i d e r a b l e (9 MKW), t h e r e was n e a r l y a t w o - f o l d i n -c r e a s e i n t h e 1950-1955 p e r i o d (17.6 MKW).35 T h i s t r e n d has con -t i n u e d t o t h e p r e s e n t . I n t h e m i d - f i f t i e s a n o t h e r governmental d e c i s i o n was made ( a s s o c i a t e d i n p a r t w i t h t h e s h o r t - l i v e d S i x t h F i v e Year P l a n , 1956-1953), w h i c h had f a r r e a c h i n g e f f e c t s i n s o f a r as h y d r o e l e c -t r i c development i n the " g r a n d manner" was c o n c e r n e d — t h e d e c i s i o n t o t a p t h e h y d r a u l i c r e s o u r c e s o f C e n t r a l S i b e r i a . I n c o n t r a s t w i t h t h e European s t a t i o n s t h e prime f u n c t i o n o f t h e S i b e r i a n p l a n t s was t o be power g e n e r a t i o n . The f i r s t major p r o j e c t was at B r a t s k on t h e Angara R i v e r . The p o t e n t i a l w a t e r r e s o u r c e s o f th e A n g a r a - Y e n i s e y r e g i o n had l o n g been r e c o g n i z e d a n d - w i t h com-p l e t i o n o f t h e I r k u t s k h y d r o s t a t i o n a power and s u p p l y base f o r t h e B r a t s k p r o j e c t - w a s c r e a t e d . W i t h an o r i g i n a l 3.6 MKW c a p a c i t y , s u b s e q u e n t l y r a i s e d t o 4*5 MKW, i t was t o be t h e l a r g e s t i n t h e w o r l d . • J D As a r e s u l t o f t h i s p o l i c y o f p r o m o t i n g l a r g e s c a l e development i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n l o w e s t c o s t e l e c t r i c i t y , t h e K r a s n o y a r s k h y d r o p l a n t on t h e Y e n i s e y was s t a r t e d , t h e capa-c i t y h e r e t o be 5 MKW t h u s u s u r p i n g t h e c l a i m o f t h e f o r m e r . The c o m p l e t i o n o f B r a t s k and K r a s n o y a r s k a l o n e w i l l p r o f o u n d l y a l t e r t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c c a p a c i t y . An a n a l y s i s o f t h i s p o l i c y f o l l o w s i n t h e c h a p t e r on C e n t r a l S i b e r i a . I n 1958 t h e f o c u s o f a t t e n t i o n was d i v e r t e d somewhat from h y d r o e l e c t r i c development. I n August o f t h i s y e a r and a g a i n w i t h t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f t h e Seven Year P l a n (1959-1965) e a r l y i n 1959, Khrushchev o f f i c i a l l y announced t h a t i n f u t u r e p r i o r i t y w o u l d be g i v e n t o t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e r m a l power s t a t i o n s f i r e d by cheap c o a l , o i l and gas, t h e d e c i s i o n b e i n g based on t h e need t o expand c a p a c i t i e s as r a p i d l y as p o s s i b l e . 3 7 i n a c _ cordance w i t h t h i s p o l i c y change c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a number o f l a r g e t h e r m a l s t a t i o n s (1-2.4 MKW) was i n i t i a t e d ; f o r example Na z a r o v o , Tom-Usinsk, B e l o v o i n t h e C e n t r a l S i b e r i a n r e g i o n , T r o i t s k i n t h e U r a l s , and Konakovo near Moscow.3^ These speeches have s u b s e q u e n t l y c r e a t e d somewhat o f a s t i r f o r i t has been assumed by some t h a t Khrushchev's remarks meant a de-emphasis o f h y d r o e l e c t r i c development.39 appears, r a t h e r , t h a t p l a n n e r s were t o be more s e l e c t i v e t h a n had h i t h e r t o been t h e case i n d e t e r m i n i n g what h y d r o p r o j e c t s were t o be under-t a k e n . T h i s i s i n f e r r e d by t h e f o l l o w i n g p a r t i a l quote from h i s o r i g i n a l s t a t e m e n t ; n . . . a t p r e s e n t i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o h o l d back somewhat on t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f c e r t a i n h y d r o e l e c t r i c s t a t i o n s so as t o g i v e p r i o r i t y t o t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e r m a l power p l a n t s f o r a few y e a r s . . ." ( a u t h o r ' s e m p h a s i s ) . 4 0 i n consequence t h e r e appeared t o be a t r e n d t o w a r d f a v o u r i n g low c o s t , l a r g e s c a l e developments as i n d i c a t e d by t h e i n i t i a t i o n i n 1 9 6 3 o f p r e l i m i n a r y c o n s t r u c t i o n a t a new hydro s i t e on t h e An g a r a , U s t - I l i m , a 4 . 0 MKW s t a t i o n . 4 1 W h i l e the combined changes i n government p o l i c y and t e c h -n i c a l developments have p r o f o u n d l y a l t e r e d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y i n g e n e r a l , i t has been t h e t a p p i n g o f t h e h y d r a u l i c r e s o u r c e s i n C e n t r a l S i b e r i a w h i c h has s i g n i f i c a n t l y a l t e r e d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h y d r o c a p a c i t y i n p a r t i c u l a r , and f r o m an a n a l y s i s o f F i g u r e 5 t h e r e g i o n i s c l e a r l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d by l a r g e s c a l e development. T h e r m a l c a p a c i t y has a l s o i n c r e a s e d c o n s i d e r a b l y i n t h e E a s t e r n r e g i o n s , but i n r e l a t i o n t o t o t a l i n s t a l l e d t h e r m a l c a p a c i t y the changes have not been as s t r i k i n g as t h o s e o f h y d r o . I n t h e Seven Y e a r P l a n a l o n e , more t h a n t w i c e t h e t o t a l i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y o f Canada w i l l have been put i n t o o p e r a t i o n i n t h e S o v i e t Union (about 6 0 MKW).42 change t h r o u g h t i m e i s q u i t e e v i d e n t i f F i g u r e s $ and 6 are compared, both i n t e r m s o f a r e a l e x t e n t and s c a l e o f development. T h i s changing d i s t r i b t u i o n has i n c r e a s e d the c o r r e l a t i o n between h y d r o c a p a c i t y and h y d r o p o t e n t i a l . F i g u r e 7 i n d i c a t e s t h e degree o f c o r r e l a t i o n as o f 1 9 6 4 . S i n c e t h e " e c o n o m i c a l l y a c c e s s i b l e " h y d r o r e s o u r c e s o f FIGURE 7 HYDRO POWER—DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL 53 European R u s s i a a r e n e a r i n g c o m p l e t e u t i l i z a t i o n , i f any new development i s t o t a k e p l a c e i t must o f n e c e s s i t y be i n t h e E a s t e r n r e g i o n s . 4 3 On t h e b a s i s o f any c r i t e r i a C e n t r a l S i b e r i a s t a n d s o u t as t h e major s t o r e h o u s e o f h y d r o p o t e n t i a l ( F i g u r e 7 ) . How t h e f i g u r e f o r " e c o n o m i c a l l y a c c e s s i b l e " hydro p o t e n t i a l has been d e r i v e d , and what i s b e i n g done t o u t i l i z e t h i s r e s o u r c e must now be c o n s i d e r e d , w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y i n d u s t r y i n C e n t r a l S i b e r i a . 54 REFERENCES:. CHAPTER III 1. See A.A. Bestchinsky, Water Power i n Energy Systems, Sixth World Power Conference: Transformation of Water Power, Melbourne, 1962, p. 2346. 2. N.M. Oznobin, Elektro-Energetika SSSR i ee Razmesh- cheniye, ( E l e c t r i c Energy i n the U.S.S.R. and Its D i s t r i b u t i o n ) , Izdatel'stvo Ekonomicheskoy Literatury, Moskva, 1961, pp. 41-3. 3. Die I n d u s t r i e l l e Planung der Sowjetunion fur 1962, (unsigned), Der Aktuelle Osten: Kommentare und Nachrichten aus P o l i t i k , Wirtschaft und Technik der UdSSR und der Satel- liteniander, Bonn, No. 4» January 3 1 . 1962, p. 4 . 4 . See discussion i n . L.A. Melent ryev, E.O. Shteyngauz, Ekonomika Energetiki SSSR, (Economic Energy U.S.S.R.), Gosu-darstvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, Leningrad, 1963, p. 13. 5. Data from, D.G. Zhimerin, Ist o r i y a E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i  SSSR, (History, of E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of the U.S.S.R.), I z d a t e l ' -stvo Sotsial'no-Ekonomicheskoy Literatury, Moskva, 1962, p. 357; ata—one atmosphere, approximately 15 pounds per square inch at sea l e v e l . 6. This f i g u r e from Naum Jasny, A Note on R a t i o n a l i t y and E f f i c i e n c y i n the Soviet Economy I, Soviet Studies, Vol. XII, A p r i l 1961, #4, p. 369. The discrepancy between t h i s f i g u r e and that f o r 1961 i n Table IV i s due to overlapping categories. 7. Gas production was scheduled for a f i v e - f o l d increase i n the current Seven Year Plan (modified s l i g h t l y downward i n the 1963 revision of the general plan) , and a three-fold increase as a f u e l for thermal plants. See, J.A. Hodgkins, Soviet Power,  Energy Resources, Production, and P o t e n t i a l , Prentice-Hall, Englewood C l i f f s ; N.J., 1961, p. 136. $. The future p o s i t i o n of gas w i l l be considered i n subse-quent chapters. 9. Quoted i n , B.I. Weitz (ed.), E l e c t r i c Power Development  i n the U.S.S.R., International Publishers, New York, 1963, p. 11. 10. For an outline of i t s function see, I.M. Nekrasova, Leni n s k i i Plan E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i Strany i Ego Osushchestvleniye v  1921-1931, (Lenin's Plan f o r E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of the Country and i t s R e a lization, 1921-1931), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, 55 Moskva, I 9 6 0 , p. 15. 11. See, I . Dorzdovskaya, Russkaya ElektrotekhniCheskaya  P e r i o d i c a 1880-1950. (Russian Electro-Technical Papers, 1880-1 9 5 0 ) , Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1 9 5 4 , PP. 6 - 1 0 ; and M. Bogorad, Vodyanye Turbiny i ikh Sozdateli. (Hydraulic Machinery), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1 9 5 3 , p. 5 5 . • 1 2 . Calculated from data i n Table I I I and Figure 1 . 1 3 . Naum Jasny, Essays on the Soviet Economy. I n s t i t u t e f o r the Study of the U.S.S.R., Series 1 , No. 6 3 , February 1 9 6 2 , Munich, p. 1 9 1 . 1 4 . Their average capacity was less than 5 0 , 0 0 0 KW. B.I. Weitz (ed.), op_. c i t . , p. IS. 1 5 . Quoted i n B.I. Weitz (ed.), op_. c i t . . p. 1 3 . 1 6 . I t s completion i n 1932 was almost entire l y responsible for the large r e l a t i v e gain of hydro compared to t o t a l capacity. Destroyed during the Second World War, i t has since been recon-structed and i s now being expanded, see reference #54, Chapter V, page 1 7 . G. Krzhizhanovsky, V. Veits, A Single Power Grid f o r  the U.S.S.R., Foreign Languages Publishing House, Moscow, 1957, p. 3 1 . 18. Sovetskaya Energetika, (unsigned), (Soviet Energy), Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , November, 1963, p. 4 . I t was only a f t e r 1950, as the a r t i c l e points out, that considerable pro-gress was made i n t h i s f i e l d , with heating pipe length increasing from 646 to 4 , 6 2 8 KM i n the decade following 1 9 5 2 , even though t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity has always been l e s s than i n steam con-densing stations (KES). 1 9 . B.I. Weitz (ed.), op_. c i t . , p. 1 2 . 2 0 . See, Plan E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i RSFSR. (Plan f o r the E l e c t r i -f i c a t i o n of the R.S.F.S.R.), Gospolitizdat, Moskva, 1 9 5 5 , p. 71. 2 1 . The increase calculated from data i n Table I, Appendix D. The following table outlines the comparative regional capa-c i t i e s and development of grid systems to 1 9 3 5 . 56 System Capacity MKW Line Length KM Moscow Donbass Dneiprovsk Urals Leningrad .804 . 6 6 8 .611 .568 .545 3,362 1,887 476 1,934 1,203 Data from Ya. G. Makushchkina, A.M. Marinova, E.I. Rassadnikova, (eds.), Energetika Urala Za 40 Let, (Energy i n the Urals During the Past 40 Years), Gosudarstvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, Leningrad, 195&, p. 12. 22. G..A. Russo (ed.), Hydroelectric Power Stations of the  Volga and Kama Cascade Systems, ( V o l z h s k i i i Kamskii Kaskady G i d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i , Moskva, I960), Published for the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C, by the Israel Program for S c i e n t i f i c Translations, Jerusalem, 1963, p. 6. 23. I b i d . , p. 7. . 24. According to, John P. Hardt, Economics of the Soviet  E l e c t r i c Power Industry, PhD. Thesis, C o r n e l l University, 1955, Microfilm, p. 99. 25. D.G. Zhimerin, op_. c i t . , p. 107; and V.Y. Steklov, E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i n the U.S.S.R., Foreign Languages Publishing House, Moscow, p. 32. 26. F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki SSSR, (Devel-opment of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 104. 27. It should be pointed out that there were p o l i t i c a l boundary changes, however, the Soviet Union doubtless gained l i t t l e i n terms of operating capacity, (see Figure 6). 28. S.F« Shershov, Bely Ugol, (White Coal), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1957, p. 25. 29. E r i c h T h i e l , The Power Industry i n the Soviet Union, Economic^Geography, Vol. 27, 1951, p. 107. The scale of the undertaking i s perhaps p a r t i a l l y revealed when one considers f o r example Omsk Province, where i n 1939 three c o l l e c t i v e farm power stat i o n s existed, whereas i n 1949, 350 were i n operation. It i s i n t e r e s t i n g to note that i n the l a t e 1940's greater attention was being given the idea of i n t e r - - r a t h e r than i n d i v i d u a l c o l l e c -t i v e farm e l e c t r i c stations, with a better co-ordination between the larger plants suggested as a means of a t t a i n i n g greater eco-57 nomies. Current Digest of the Soviet Press, V o l . 1, No. 48, 1949, p. 56; Vol. 1, No. 43, 1949, p. 58. 30. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye S t a t i s t i c h e s -koye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 163. 31. Ministerstvo E l e k t r o s t a n t s i i SSSR, Energeticheskoye  S t r o i t e l ' s t v o SSSR za 40 Let (1917-1957). (Development of Energy i n the U.S.S.R. Over the Past 40 Years 1917-1957 ), Gosudar-stvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1958, p. 49; and V.P. Petrov, E l e c t r i c Power, IV, Geography of the Soviet Union S e r i e s , Kamkin Inc., Washington, D.C, 1959, p. 43. Ust-Kamenogorsk also started, but i s not part of the Central Siberian region as defined. 3 2 . Data from Table I, Appendix D, and includes of course, r e p a i r of war damaged generating u n i t s . 3 3 . F. Ya. Nesteruk, op_. c i t . . p. 144. 34. The o r i g i n a l desire has not come to f r u i t i o n i n a l l aspects. I t was r e a l i z e d at a l a t e r date that to i r r i g a t e the vast t r a c t s of land o r i g i n a l l y envisioned would be to af f e c t adversely the flow of the Volga, thus complicating the already serious problem of the f a l l i n g l e v e l of the Caspian Sea as well as generation of e l e c t r i c power at the downstream s t a t i o n s . For a b r i e f discussion of the problem and suggested solutions see, V.P. Petrov, op. c i t . , pp. 20-4; and S.L. Vendrov, et a l . , The Problem of Transformation and U t i l i z a t i o n of the Water Resources of the Volga River and the Caspian Sea, Soviet Geography: Review  and Translation. September 1964, pp. 23-34* 35. Calculated from data i n Table I, Appendix D. 36. Grand Coulee, 1.9 MKW, currently i s the l a r g e s t hydro s t a t i o n i n North America. Hamilton F a l l s would presumably be of the same order of capacity as the Siberian stations, however, there now appears to be some doubt as to whether i t w i l l be con-structed (see a r t i c l e by Garth Hopkins, W i l l Canada Hydro Remain Untapped. Vancouver Province. March 2, 1964, p. 17). 37. Khrushchev at Volga Dam: Focus on Thermal Power, (unsigned, Izvestiya, August 12), Current Digest of the Soviet  Press. Vol. X, No. 32, September 17, 1958, p. 4; N.S. Khrushchov, Control Figures f o r the Economic Development of the U.S.S.R. f o r  1959-65, Foreign Languages Publishing House. Moscow, 1959, p. 31. 38. E.A. Trofimovskaya, Edinaya Energeticheskaya, (Single 58 Energy System), Izdatel'stvo Znaniye, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , p. 1 9 , 3 3 . 3 9• For example this assumption made i n , Die Energiever- sorgung der Sow.ietunion: Gegenwartige Leistung, Ausbau des  Po t e n t i a l s , Veigleich mit der Westlichen Welt, Deutsche Volks-wi r t s c h a f t l i c h e Gesellschaft, Hamburg, I 9 6 0 , p. x, as well as i n A.A. Michel and S.A. Klain, Current Problems of the Soviet E l e c t r i c Power Industry, Economic Geography, July 1 9 6 4 , pp. 2 0 6 -2 2 0 . In the l a t t e r a r t i c l e , aside from att r i b u t i n g too much importance to Khrushchev's speech, the authors have also man-aged to make a more serious error. They attempt to compare prime costs of thermal and hydro e l e c t r i c i t y and i n so doing come to several conclusions. This i s done without any i n d i c a -t i o n that they are aware of a difference i n method of computa-t i o n of prime costs at hydro and thermal s t a t i o n s . In fact as i s pointed out i n Appendix A here, the derivation of prime cost of e l e c t r i c i t y at hydro stations i s based on a r e s t r i c t e d view of t o t a l c a p i t a l expenditure. Thus statements such as, "The ch i e f advantage of hydro e l e c t r i c power i s inexpensive power generation," (p. 2 1 1 ) , are of l i t t l e value. 4 0 . Khrushchev at Volga Dam. . . , l o c . c i t . 4 1 . For data on t h i s plant see Chapter IV. 4 2 . As of the end of I 9 6 4 about 1 0 4 MKW t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity, an increase of just over 50 MKW since 1 9 5 8 , the s t a r t of the new Seven Year Plan. 4 3 . A discussion of "economically accessible" hydro poten-t i a l i n European Russia follows i n Chapter V. REFERENCES: FIGURES Figure 5 . Based on, E l e k t r i f i k a t s i v a SSSR. (1:8,000,000), Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1963; N.M. Oznobin, Elektro-Energetika SSSR i ee Razmeshcheniye. ( E l e c t r i c Energy i n the U.S.S.R. and Its D i s t r i b u t i o n ) , Izdatel'stvo Ekonomiches-koy L i t e r a t u r y , Moskva, 1961, pp. 232-233} Recent E l e c t r i c Power  Developments i n the U.S.S.R., Report of the United States Delegation Tour to Soviet Russia, August 28-September 9, 1962, Under U.S.-U.S.S.R. Exchange Agreement, United States Government Pr i n t i n g O f f i c e , Washington, D.C, December 27, 1962, p. 4 5 . Figure 6. Data f o r 1928 from, N.M. Oznobin, Elektro 59 Energetika SSSR i ee Razmeshcheniye. ( E l e c t r i c Energy i n the U.S.S.R. and I t s D i s t r i b u t i o n ) , Izdatel»stvo Ekonomicheskoy Li t e r a t u r y , Moskva, 1961, pp. 168-169; f o r 1935, Bolshava  Sovetskiy Atlas Mira. Moskva, 1937, Plate #131. Figure 7. Data f o r "economically accessible" hydro poten t i a l from Chapters 4-6; s t a t i s t i c s f o r developed hydro are based on calculations i n Appendices B and C, and include capacity currently under construction; data f o r other categories from, F.Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki SSSR. (Develop-ment of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izda t e l 1 s t v o Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, pp. 59,60; I.P. Denisov, Osnovnyye Ispol'zovaniye Vodnoy E n e r g i i . (Basic U t i l i z a t i o n of Water Power), Energiya, Moskva, 1964, pp. 35-37. CHAPTER IV ELECTRIC POWER IN CENTRAL SIBERIA, POTENTIAL AND PROBLEMS The r e l a t i v e importance of hydro and large scale develop-ment are the two features which d i f f e r e n t i a t e Central S i b e r i a from other regions i n the U.S.S.R.1 The basis f o r t h i s character-i z a t i o n w i l l be examined, but within an o v e r a l l analysis of the regional pattern of e l e c t r i c power production and consumption. In Soviet l i t e r a t u r e one often f i n d s reference to the enormous hydro potential of Siberia, of which present u t i l i z a t i o n i n Central S i b e r i a (depicted on Figure 8) i s deemed to be but a small beginning. 2 Several questions n a t u r a l l y arise; what are the l i m i t i n g factors, i f any, to the growth of hydro i n S i b e r i a ? Are the oft-quoted figures of 165 MKW f o r "gross" potential and 105 MKW f o r " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e " p o t e n t i a l i n the West and East Siberian economic regions meaningful and i f not, f o r what reasons?-* On the other hand, what factors have given r i s e to the hydro projects now i n operation or under construction and i n addition, what i s the position of thermal e l e c t r i c power i n a region perhaps more often thought of i n terms of the former? In attempting to answer these questions one must not lose sight of the place of Central S i b e r i a within the country as a whole. The region i s generally regarded as the future store-house of e l e c t r i c energy and the overriding purpose of t h i s & THE CENTRAL SIBERIAN REGION 62 chapter i s to t e s t the v a l i d i t y of t h i s concept. Such an objec-t i v e requires an analysis of current and future supply and demand fo r e l e c t r i c i t y i n Central S i b e r i a , before any reasoned statement can be made. HYDRO POTENTIAL An examination of Figure 7, Chapter I I I , depicts the con-siderable difference between the Soviet estimates of hydro re-sources and that offered here under the heading "current econom-i c a l l y accessible" p o t e n t i a l . I t i s required, therefore, that the l a t t e r be j u s t i f i e d . (In t h i s regard i t i s r e i t e r a t e d that the d i s t r i b u t i o n of " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" potential provides the s t a r t i n g point for the derivation of a f i g u r e f o r t h i s l a t t e r category). The Lena, Yenisey and Ob r i v e r systems comprise the largest part of the Siberian " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e " p o t e n t i a l (ex-cluding the Far East economic region).4 However, data f o r spe-c i f i c s i t e s i s d i f f i c u l t to obtain, p a r t i c u l a r l y for those streams draining into the East Siberian and Laptev Seas (see Figure 3)» This appears to be simply a r e f l e c t i o n of the paucity of detailed hydrologieal studies i n t h i s area. Available data has been incorporated into Table VII. While the figures f o r " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e " hydro resources include a l l s i t e s where, from an engineering point of view, i t would be possible to con-s t r u c t a dam, i t i s obvious that r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n i s not taken TABLE VII SIBERIAN HYDRO RESOURCES8-River System Site River Flow at Site m^/sec. Average Annual Flow of River KM? Technically Exploitable Potential Capacity MKW ' Ob River Irtysh Katun Yenisey River Angara Lower Tunguska Lena River Vilyuy Olekma Aldan Vitim Indigirka River Kolyma River Khatanga River Lower Ob 12 500° Omskd 9 4 9 d mm mm Yeniseyskaya e 7 9 0 9 e Bratsk e 2 9 0 0 e Lower Lena d 15 3 0 0 d Seron-Tiitskaya d 2 2 5 d Mamakand l 8 6 d 3 9 4 c 548° 488* 57 120 101 2 5 . T 3 . 2 3 . 7 1 8 . 2 1 4 . 0 4 . 2 20 2 . 4 4 5 . 5 5 . 4 6 . 2 5 . 2 4 . 1 a. Data from F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki SSSR, (Development of Hydroelectric Energy-in the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 61, except where indicated. b. Includes the proposed Lower 0b station, the estimated capacity of which ranges anywhere between 6-20 MKW. c. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Ocherki po G i d r o g r a f i i Rek SSSR, (Essays on the Hydro-graphy of the Rivers of the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1952, p. 15. d. For an ou t l i n e see. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika; Razvitiye Proizvoditel'-nykh. S i l Vostochnoy S i b i r i , (Energy, The Development of Productive Strength of Eastern Siberia), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I960, pp. 134-6. e. G.A. Russo (ed.), Hydroelectric Power Stations of the Volga and Kama Cascade  Systems, (Volzhskii i Kamskii Kaskady Gidroelektrostantsii, Moskva, I960), Published for the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C, by the I s r a e l Program f o r S c i e n t i f i c Translations, Jerusalem, 1963, p. 13. ON 64 into account.5 The Indigirka, Kolyma and Khatanga Rivers ( l o -cated on Figure, 3) account for- about 15 percent of Siberian hydro potential, yet a l l l i e well w i t h i n the zone of permafrost, a con-d i t i o n which creates s p e c i a l problems f o r dam construction. 0 Figure 9 i l l u s t r a t e s the marked seasonal concentration of discharge on the l a t t e r streams as well as the Lena and two of i t s t r i b u t a r i e s , compared to those on which major hydro construc-t i o n has thus far taken place. The f a c t that on the majority of the " p o t e n t i a l " streams over one-half of the annual flow comes in one or two months i s related i n large part to the existence of permafrost. On the Vilyuy for example, two-thirds of the t o t a l annual discharge occurs i n May and June. 7 Such a concentration means that very large dams must be constructed under d i f f i c u l t p h y sical conditions i f adequate storage i s to be provided f o r the needs of an associated i n d u s t r i a l complex that i s u s u a l l y envi-sioned. ^  There i s also the problem of providing access to these s i t e s . The current d i f f i c u l t i e s associated with the construction of a very small s t a t i o n at Vilyuyskaya on the V i l y u y River would seem to be enough to force even the most ardent proponent of the more grandiose schemes into a reconsideration. Here costs are c u r r e n t l y out of hand, since i t i s having to be serviced largely by a i r . 0 -To regard a l l these r i v e r s as potential i s c e r t a i n l y mis-leading, thus the f i g u r e for current "economically accessible" hydro resources excludes the Lena system, as well as the 100 % V o l g a Y e n i s e y ioo%l 65 A n g a r a 100% I L e n a V i l y u y V i t i m I n d i g i r k a K o l y m a K h a t a n g a 100% 100% 100% Percent of Flow: April-June Percent of Flow: June-September Percent of Flow: April-September FIGURE 9 VARIATION OF ANNUAL DISCHARGE—SELECTED STREAMS 66 Indigirka, Kolyma and Khatanga Rivers. While there has been some pu b l i c i t y given the Lower Lena project ( 2 0 MKW) i n p a r t i c u l a r , i t has not yet been seriously considered i n the Soviet t e c h n i c a l l i t e r a t u r e , which i s deemed the more accurate r e f l e c t i o n of cur-rent t r e n d s . 1 0 It would appear that the simple fact of r e l a t i v e location plus those f a c t o r s discussed previously would be more than enough to outweigh the technical f e a s i b i l i t y of transmitting energy to Central S i b e r i a by way of extending the grid system, a possible but not probable event for at l e a s t the next decade or two. Such considerations also apply to the potential s i t e s on the lower reaches of the Y e n i s e y . 1 1 The 2 0 MKW Lower Ob scheme, which can be considered more p r o f i t a b l y i n r e l a t i o n to the Urals gri d than the Siberian, i s excluded as well f o r reasons elabor-ated on i n the following chapter. By deducting the p o t e n t i a l of these streams (as given i n Table VII) and projects, the f i g u r e arrived at f o r current "economically a c c e s s i b l e " hydro p o t e n t i a l i s approximately 50 MKW. Although not intended to be s t r i c t l y accurate i n terms of precise kilowatt p o t e n t i a l , i t i s neverthe-l e s s deemed to be more r e a l i s t i c -and meaningful than the Soviet estimate of "gross" or " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable." The exclusion of the aforementioned streams and s p e c i f i c proposals i s not meant to i n f e r that there w i l l not be any hydro development outside the Central Siberian region during the next two decades. I t i s suggested, however, that any projects under-taken would be of small scale and of l i t t l e importance i n r e l a -tion to the hydro developments within the region. 67 INSTALLED CAPACITI The demand for e l e c t r i c i t y has increased rapidly in Central Siberia, the annual increase being among the highest in the U.S.S.R. The original impetus came with the organization of the Urals-Kuznetsk industrial combine in 1934* there being less than 35,000 KW of installed capacity i n the Kuznetsk basin prior to t h i s . 1 ^ With subsequent industrial growth, particularly during the Second World War, capacity in Central Siberia increased such that i t s share of t o t a l Soviet generation of el e c t r i c power had increased from less than 2 to about 8 percent by 1945, and as Table VIII illustrates the general trend has continued.1-* More-over, Eastern Siberia which excludes the industrial centers of the Kuznetsk basin (Figure 8), has increased i t s share of the regional total substantially since 1940, from 26 to 47 percent (1962), a reflection of the industrial development i n the Krasnoyarsk and Irkutsk areas in particular. l o^ HYDRO CAPACITY The total installed capacity i n Central Siberia has been estimated at 10.5 MKW as of January 1965 of which, as Table IX indicates, almost one-half i s hydro (twice the national average). The importance of hydro in this region has been stressed through-out and was related in the last chapter to a change in Soviet TABLE VIII GENERATION OF ELECTRIC POWER BKWH SHARE OF NATIONAL TOTAL T76T 1940 1950 1955 1958 I960 1962 (Estimate) e 1. West S i b e r i a a 1.863 5.871 11.716 16.225 22.167 29.H4J 60 2. East S i b e r i a b .669 2.389 5.065 10.209 16.416 26.340 J 3. Total U.S.S.R.0 48.309 91.226 120.225 235.351 " "292.274 369.275 450 Percent Share d 1 and 2 of 3 5.2$ 9.0/. 11.756 11.2% 13.2% 15.0% 13 a. Data from Narodnoye Khozyaystvo RSFSR y 1959 9°^' S t a t i s t i c h e s k i y Ezhegodnik, Moskva, I960, p. 78; and Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i y Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Moskva, 1963, p. 159. b. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo RSFSR v 1959 Godu, Ibid.; Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, Ibid. c. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR . . ., l o c . c i t . d. Calculated. e. See Appendix B for estimation of regional capacity and calculation of annual generation of el e c t r i c power. Estimate of 1964 annual generation based on T. Shabad, News Notes, Soviet Geography: Review and Translation. February, 1964, p. 61. ON 69 TABLE IX REGIONAL CAPACITY BY TYPE Central Siberia 1964 U.S.S. R. 1962 u MKW Percent MKW Percent Hydro a 4.7 45 18.0 22 Thermal b Condensation (KES 4.2 40 4S.3 59 Heat and Power (TETS) 1.6 15 15.5 19 Total 10.5 81.8 a. Capacity calculated, percent of t o t a l r e g i onal capacity based on figure from Pravda, January 15, 1964, p. 2. b. Percent based l a r g e l y on data given i n Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika; Razvitiye Proizvoditel'nykh S i l Vostochnoy  S i b i r i , (Energy, the Development of Productive Strength of Eastern S i b e r i a ) , Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I960, p. 17. c. Derived from Elektricheskive S t a n t s i i , November 1963, P« 4. 70 p o l i c y , with greater s e l e c t i v i t y i n construction of sta t i o n s being emphasized. The reasons f o r t h i s change can perhaps be best understood i n terms of a s p e c i f i c s i t e analysis of selected stations, taking into consideration those f a c t o r s which have apparently conditioned policy. The contention here w i l l be that the move into the Siberian region has been based primarily on economic factors (economic insofar as Soviet decision making i s concerned), although i t i s conceded that strategic f a c t o r s may have been of some importance. 1 7 I t must be borne i n mind that with the passing of each year there are fewer prospective hydro sites i n European Russia, and even fewer with benefit-cost ra t i o s comparable to sites i n the Eastern regions, p a r t i c u l a r l y Central S i b e r i a . When the p h y s i c a l conditions at the Bratsk s t a t i o n on the Angara River are contrasted with those of Kuybyshev, one of the l a r g e s t multi-purpose stations on the Volga, i t w i l l become evident why engineering counsel would favour the former (see Figure 5)« Bratsk and Kuybyshev—A Contrast i n Physical Geography Two s i g n i f i c a n t determinants of the hydraulic p o t e n t i a l of a stream are the flow, discharge at a s p e c i f i c point represented as some quantity per unit of time, and i t s temporal v a r i a t i o n throughout the year. The r a t i o of maximum-minimum discharge on the Angara i s 7, compared to 255 on the Volga. Even with the construction of a reservoir system on the Volga, annual power output at Kuybyshev can vary by as much as 30 percent eit h e r way, depending on the p a r t i c u l a r climatic conditions of that year as 18 exemplified by the discharge. Figure 10 contrasts i n d e t a i l the seasonal flow pattern of the Volga with the non-seasonal flow of the Angara, which i s due to the fact that the Angara provides the only o u t l e t to Lake Baykal and now i s fur t h e r regulated by the dam at Irkutsk (Figure 8). River gradient as a function of regional topography i s an important determinant of the potential gross head a v a i l a b l e at a p a r t i c u l a r site,*••(•difference i n elevation between the -reservoir water l e v e l at intake to turbine tunnel and t a i l r a c e ) . 1 ^ Other things being equal, the greater the head the greater the gener-ating capacity. At Kuybyshev 2,200 kilometers from the Volga's source, there i s a diffe r e n c e of 147 meters i n elevation, where-as at Bratsk 720 kilometers downstream from the Angara's source, Lake Baykal, the r i v e r has descended 157 meters, 90 of which are i n the immediate area of the dam s i t e . 2 ^ Situated at the Saratov Bend of the Volga, the Kuybyshev dam r e s t s primarily on clay and a l l u v i a l sand with the limestone and dolomite higher r i g h t bank as a d d i t i o n a l support. The con-crete overflow dam and the power house occupy the two channels which the Volga had formed at this point and are connected with an e a r t h f i l l dam, the whole structure being almost 4,000 meters i n length, but less than 50 meters i n height. The normal oper-ating head at Kuybyshev i s approximately 30 meters. 2 1 72 30,000 C u b i c Meters J F M A M J J A S O N D Volga R iver at Kuybyshev Angara River at Bra tsk FIGURE 10 ANNUAL RIVER FLOW CHARACTERISTICS-VOLGA. AND ANGARA The Padun Narrows i s the s i t e of the Bratsk dam and here physical conditions are markedly d i f f e r e n t , f o r the Angara s q u i r t s through a gorge of s o l i d igneous rock 900 meters wide with banks r i s i n g 80 meters above the r i v e r . At this s i t e i t was possible to construct a 135 meter high concrete gravity dam, giving a normal operating head of 90 meters. 2 2 The difference i n regional topo-graphy i s perhaps best i l l u s t r a t e d when one considers that the Bratsk r e s e r v o i r covers a smaller surface area than that at Kuybyshev (the Z h i g u l i Sea), 5,000 square kilometers as compared to 6,500, but contains three times the l a t t e r T s 58 b i l l i o n cubic meter volume. In both cases roughly a t h i r d i s used f o r power generation. 2^ One of the p r i n c i p a l f a c t o r s accounting f o r the difference i n investment per unit of i n s t a l l e d capacity as indicated i n Table X was the greater volume of earthworks required at the Kuybyshev station, 190 m i l l i o n cubic meters as compared to 30. 2^ Both stations required the same volume of plain and reinforced concrete—12 m i l l i o n cubic meters. 2^ The different p h y s i c a l conditions have given r i s e to d i f -ferent functions f o r each plant. At Bratsk i t i s possible to maintain a r e l a t i v e l y constant generation of e l e c t r i c i t y through-out the year. This i s a r e s u l t of the Angara's even flow and the large volume of the r e s e r v o i r storage capacity that can be used f o r generation. Thus Bratsk was designed to meet i n large part the base load demand of an associated i n d u s t r i a l complex, and to 74 TABLE X POWER AND ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF BRATSK* AND KUYBYSHEV HYDROELECTRIC STATIONS » Cha r a c t e r i s t i c s Kuybyshev Bratsk I n s t a l l e d Capacity MKW 2 . 3 Turbine Capacity MKW .115 Annual Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y BKWH 1 0 e Investment f o r Construction of Hydro Plant (for power supply only) M. Rubles** 6 5 4 . 7 Investment Per Unit of Ins t a l l e d Capacity Rubles per KW 284 Investment Per Unit of Power Output Rubles per KWH . 0 6 Prime Cost of E l e c t r i c i t y at Station (assuming 46 percent plant factor) Kopeks per KWH . 0 8 M i l l s per KWH*** . 9 Average Cost of Hydroelectric Power i n 1959 Kopeks per KWH M i l l s per KWH Average Cost of E l e c t r i c Power From A l l Sources i n 1962 Kopeks per KWH M i l l s per KWH 4.5^ . 2 2 5 C 2 2 - 2 6 f 405 9 0 . 1 9 ' 2 . 1 . 7 4 J 8 . 2 g h . 0 1 5 2 1 . 0 4 J . 4 * Projected ** Kuybyshev s t a t i s t i c s o r i g i n a l l y i n 1955 rubles, cor-rected f o r 1961 devaluation by using a fact o r of 1 0 . *** Kopeks converted to m i l l s : 1 kopek 1 .11 cent (U.S.) 75 a. S t a t i s t i c s f o r Kuybyshev, except where indicated, from G.A. Russo (ed.), Hydroelectric Power Stations of the  Volga and Kama Cascade Systems, (Volzhskii i Kamskii Kaskady G i d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i , Moskva, I960), Published f o r the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C, by the I s r a e l Program for S c i e n t i f i c Translations, Jerusalem, 1963, p. 117, Table 4-1. b. Derivation of prime cost of h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y out-lined i n Appendix A. c. F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitive Gidroenergetiki SSSR, (Development of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'-stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 171. d. I b i d . e. V.P. Petrov, E l e c t r i c Power, IV, Geography of the Soviet Union Series, Kamkin Inc., Washington, D.C 1959, p. 10. f . Large Dams of the U.S.S.R., A Translation Prepared by the National Science Foundation, U.S. Government P r i n t i n g Office, Washington, D.C. 1963, p. 281. g. This f i g u r e would appear reasonable since t o t a l cost f o r the whole of the Bratsk development was 707 M. rubles as of January 1, 1964, which includes large expenditures f o r the r a i l -road and communications into the s i t e as well as reservoir costs. See A.M. Gindin, Organizatsiya S t r o i t e l ' s t v a Bratskoi GES, (Construction Organization at the Bratsk GES), Gidrotekhniches-koye S t r o i t e l ' s t v o , No. 6, I 9 6 4 , p. 3. h. Calculated: Investment (r u b l e s ) - i - I n s t a l l e d Capacity (KW). i . Calculated: Investment (rubles) -f- Annual Generation (KWH). j . S t a t i s t i c from, V. Ya. Steklov, Leninskii- Plan E l e k t r i -f i k a t s i i v D e y s t v i i . (Lenin's Plan for E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i n Operation), Izdatel'stvo Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1964, p. 142. k. S t a t i s t i c from, P.S. Neporozhniy, Problemy Sploshnov  E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i SSSR. (Problems of the Complete E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of the U.S.S.R.), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, I960, p. 14. 1. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta. September 7, 1963, p. 8 76 a l e s s e r extent the peak load of the Siberian system. 2^ Kuybyshev, being part of the Volga scheme, was designed to carry a large share of the peak load of the u n i f i e d European power system, i n ad d i t i o n to providing stream regulation and i r r i g a t i o n waters to o f f s e t the larger r a t i o of maximum to minimum discharge of the Volga. I t should be pointed out that presently the l o ^ d curve of the Central Siberian system i s r e l a t i v e l y and absolutely l e s s than i n European Russia. 27 This i s a r e f l e c t i o n of the importance of the i n d u s t r i a l demand i n Central S i b e r i a . I t can thus be seen that the projected low cost of large blocks of power at Bratsk (Table X), a f i f t h of the national average hydro cost, (which i t s e l f i s considerably l e s s than the .74 kopeks per KWH average cost of e l e c t r i c i t y from a l l sources i n power systems) coupled with an expected high rate of return per u n i t of investment, has provided economic incentive f o r government promotion of large scale hydro projects i n t h i s r e g i o n . 2 5 I t needs to be emphasized again that t h i s i s the r e s u l t simply of propitious physical geographic conditions. Recent Hydro Developments There have been other large hydro projects i n i t i a t e d i n t h i s region during the past few years. A l l are part of the Angara-Yenisey scheme outlined on Figure 8, plans f o r which began i n 1930.29 Since these projects are similar i n scale and function to the Bratsk station only a general discussion of t h e i r l o c a t i o n 77 and i n d i v i d u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i s required. The fourth hydroelectric station to be. constructed i n Central S i b e r i a was on the Yenisey River at Krasnoyarsk. Krasnoyarsk was begun under the same government p o l i c y i n the m i d - f i f t i e s as Bratsk and i t also was to supply e l e c t r i c i t y for an associated i n d u s t r i a l complex. (Construction of Bratsk and Krasnoyarsk followed the plant at Novosibirsk b u i l t during the Fourth Five Year Plan, and Irkutsk, which f i r s t came under load i n 1956 and was designed to act as a power base f o r construction at Bratsk and providing, i n addition, power f o r l o c a l industry and the e a s t e r l y sections of the e l e c t r i f i e d Trans-Siberian r a i l -road). 30 To a i d i n meeting the demand of the industries w i t h i n the c i t y of Krasnoyarsk, construction of the Nazarovo thermal plant was s t a r t e d and interconnection with t h i s plant and Bratsk was planned both to even out generation and to decrease required reserve c a p a c i t i e s . 3 1 Any surplus power was to be "exported" to the Kuznetsk basin. I t has been stated that the Soviets were somewhat rel u c t a n t to undertake the Krasnoyarsk s t a t i o n , 3 2 i n s p i t e of projected lowest cost of power from any hydro station so f a r constructed.33 This i s perhaps the r e s u l t of placing too much emphasis on Khrushchev's statements of 195S. At any rate hydro development i n t h i s region has not been adversely affected, f o r construction of the Ust-Ilim s t a t i o n on the Angara has subsequently been i n i t i a t e d and preliminary work i s being carried out at Sayan, 300 kilometers upstream from 78 Krasnoyarsk (Figure 8).3^ The economical construction of the Ust-Ilim s t a t i o n i s largely dependent upon the u t i l i z a t i o n of the, equipment and workers' brigades from the Bratsk project and men and equipment have been transported downstream to the s i t e by b a r g e . S a y a n l i k e Ust-Ilim w i l l make use of e x i s t i n g equipment and construction crews, t h i s time from Krasnoyarsk. While t h i s s t a t i o n i s s t i l l i n the preliminary stages i t i s prob-able that.-the plans w i l l be completed since there i s more than simply the economics of supply and demand involved. The dam s i t e i s near the v i l l a g e where Lenin spent several years of confine-ment during the 1890's and much i s being made i n the press of his o r i g i n a l v i s i o n of a hydro station and i n d u s t r i a l complex at t h i s location.3° I t i s desired to have Sayan i n operation by 1970, i n time f o r the one hundredth anniversary of Lenin's b i r t h . Power generated i s to be used in.part i n the Kuzbass, v i a a 400 k i l o -meter 750 KV transmission l i n e . Another 500 KV l i n e i s proposed, feeding the Abakan-Minusinsk area.37 Further discussion of devel-opments at Sayan i s reserved f o r the concluding chapter. In the following Table the technical and economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of these plants are o u t l i n e d . ^ 8 The primary function of these S i b e r i a n stations i s once again, power generation. THERMAL CAPACITY While most attention i s generally accorded the Nazarovo (1.5 MKW), Belovo (1.5 MKW) and Tom-Usinsk (2.4 MKW) thermal 79 TABLE XI TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS SIBERIAN HYDRO POWER STATIONS Characteristics Krasnoyarsk U s t - I l i m b Sayan c River Flow at s i t e cubic meters Average head, meters Yenisey 2,790 93 Angara 4,000 130 Yenisey 2 , 1 0 0 206 I n s t a l l e d capacity MKW Turbine capacity MKW Annual Generation BKWH Year of i n i t i a l operation 5 - 6 . 5 20 1967 4 . 5 20 1968 6 . 3 6 .53 2 3 . 5 1970 Capital investment per KW of i n s t a l l e d capacity (rubles) per KWH (rubles) 82 . 0 2 -- 35 Prime cost of e l e c t r i c power at s i t e , kopeks per KWH . 0 3 .03 . 0 3 a. Data f o r Krasnoyarsk from S.S. Agalakov, Plotina Krasnoyarskoi Gi d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i , (The Krasnoyarsk Hydro Station Dam), Gidrotekhnicheskoye S t r o i t e l 1 s t v o , A p r i l 1 9 6 4 , pp. 1 6 - 2 2 . b. Data for Ust-Ilim drawn from F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye  Gidroenergetiki SSSR. (Development of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , pp. 2 2 0 - 5 ; Ekonomicheskava Gazeta. June 1 3 , 1 9 6 4 , p. 18; V. Ya. Steklov, L e n i n s k i i Plan E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i v D e v s t v i i . (Lenin's Plan f o r E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i n Operation), Izdatel'stvo Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1964, p. 1 4 2 . c. Data for Sayan from G.A. Pretvo, Plotina Sayano— Shushenskoi G i d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i na R. Enisey, (Dam of the Sayan Hydroelectric Station on the R. Yenisey), Gidrotekhnicheskoye  S t r o i t e l ' s t v o . A p r i l 1 9 6 4 , pp. 1 0 - 1 4 ; Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta. A p r i l 16, 1 9 6 4 , p. 4#; A. Khramtsov, Sayan GES, Vechernyaya Moskva. A p r i l 8 , 1 9 6 3 , Translations on U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power ( 1 9 4 7 4 ) , J.P.R.S., Mic r o f i l m , June 1 9 6 3 , Reel #2, p. 1 1 . 80 plants (Figure 8), i t needs to be re-emphasized that this large scale development i s of recent origin (post 1958). As late as 1955 the average capacity of power stations east of the Urals was only 27,000 KW as compared to 46,000 KW in European Russia.^ At present, only Nazarovo, Belovo, and Tom-Usinsk are operating (although not yet at planned capacity), thus they cannot be regarded as the principal source of electric power. ^  The older, smaller plants s t i l l comprise over one-half of the region's 6 MKW installed thermal capacity (1964), as i s evident from Figure 5.^" The predominance of condensation thermal plants (KES) in Central Siberia (Table IX) reflects directly the importance of the industrial sector as a consumer of e l e c t r i c i t y . ^ 2 The share of heat and power plants (TETS) of regional capacity, which can be used as a rough guide to the importance of the domestic sector, i s currently about 15 percent. In view of the planned expansion in energy intensive industry in the region, this share cannot be expected to increase. Nazarovo and Cherepets As in the case of hydro i t would be advantageous to com-pare the power and economic characteristics of representative stations from European Russia and Central Siberia. The conden-sation plants selected, Nazarovo (.45 MKW capacity in 1963) and Cherepets (Figure 8 and in Chapter V, Figure 11) are representa-tive of those stations currently being constructed in each region 8 1 i n terms of type of f u e l used, i n s t a l l e d capacity and projected cost of e l e c t r i c power. 4^ The l a t t e r plant, begun i n 1 9 5 2 , had been equipped at the outset with large generating u n i t s , capacity of the plant being boosted i n 1963 with the addition of two . 3 MKW u n i t s i n accordance with recent trends (Table X I I ) . 4 4 Proximity to coal deposits i s a major l o c a t i v e force for thermal plants both to lessen transport costs and, equally as important, to avoid adding to the problem of an over-taxed r a i l network. Cherepets i s supplied i n part from the l o c a l Moscow basin.deposit, yet the-furnaces for the new, . 3 MKW turbines, f i r e d by anthracite from the Donbass (requiring a r a i l haul of over 500 kilometers) give r i s e to cheaper e l e c t r i c i t y (Table X I I ) . 4 5 This i s because of the higher c a l o r i f i c value of this f u e l compared to the Moscow brown coal and the l a r g e r scale gen-erat i n g units. I t would appear that disadvantages of added con-gestion on the r a i l network are outweighed by the benefit derived from less expensive e l e c t r i c i t y . At Nazarovo, r a i l hauls are eliminated since i t i s situated on the Nazarovo brown coal deposit (part of the Kansk-Achinsk f i e l d ) , a l l furnaces being f i r e d by l o c a l l y s t r i p mined c o a l . Another important factor i n location i s water supply, thermal plants of 1 - 1 . 5 MKW requiring 3 0 - 4 0 cubic meters per second f o r c o o l i n g . 4 0 The Krasnoyarsk r e s e r v o i r i s intended to meet t h i s need at Nazarovo, while an adjacent storage lake (fed by a t r i b u t a r y of the Oka) supplies Gherepets. There have been several problems associated with the 82 TABLE XII TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF NAZAROVO AND CHEREPETS THERMAL PLANTS Ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s Cherepets* Nazarovo I n s t a l l e d capacity MKW Turbine capacity MKW Annual generation BKWHC F u e l d Brown Coal ash content (approx.) percent Anthracite ash content (approx.) percent Cost of coal per ton at plant* i n terms of conventional f u e l equivalent (Rubles) per actual ton produced (Rubles) Plant f a c t o r (hours per annum) Capi t a l investment (M. Rubles) Projected prime cost of power at s i t e Kopeks per KWH 1.2 4 x .150 2 x .3 9-10 1.5 10 x .150 10-11 (Moscow Basin) (Nazarovo Deposit) 40 20 (Donetsk Basin) 20 (Moscow) 17.3 6.7 (Donetsk) 8.9 6.1 6500 .7* (Nazarovo) 2.5 1.1 6600-7000 156 .167 * Using Moscow Basin coal Using Donetsk Basin coal and .3 MKW turbines a. Data from H.M. E l l i s , Power Generation and EHV Trans-mission i n the Soviet Union, International Power and Engineering Consultants Ltd., Vancouver, B.C., June I960, pp. 17-3, except S3 where in d i c a t e d . b. Data from Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika; Razvitiye  Proizvoditel'nykh S i l yostochnoy S i b i r i , (Energy, the Development of Productive Strength of Eastern S i b e r i a ) , Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I 9 6 0 , p. 2 9 1 , except where indicated. c. Estimated. d. J.A. Hodgkins, Soviet Power, Energy Resources, Produc- t i o n and P o t e n t i a l s , Prentice-Hall, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., 1961, pp. 1 7 0 - 2 . e. From data i n A.A. Stepankov, Ekonomicheskaya  Ef f e k t i v n o s t ' Proizvodstva i Kapital'nykh VTozheniy,. (Economic Effectiveness of Production and Capital Investment), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 9 4 . f. Figure based on operation at planned i n s t a l l e d capacity. 84 Nazarovo plant. For example, the furnaces i n s t a l l e d had not been designed for the l o c a l coal q u a l i t i e s , thus required cleaning every four months and consequently generation had not exceeded 70 percent of that planned (1963).^ The current cost of e l e c t r i c i t y from t h i s station i s estimated to be no less than .3 kopeks per KWH (projected, .167).^ 8 B a s i c a l l y t h i s i s a problem of organ-i z a t i o n and planning, rather than any inherent disadvantage of l o c a l resources. The projected lower cost of e l e c t r i c i t y at Nazarovo c e r t a i n l y supports t h i s conclusion. Trends i n -Fuel Consumption At present a l l major thermal plants are coal f i r e d . The move toward the larger thermal units was to reap the benefits of large scale and i n this region s p e c i f i c a l l y , to take advantage of comparatively cheap, s t r i p mined coal as f u e l . The costs at major deposits i n Central S i b e r i a are compared with those of the major f i e l d s i n European Russia i n Table XIII. Since the main element i n prime cost of thermal power i s f u e l (50-80 percent), the lower cost of coal and abundant reserves i n S i b e r i a are a major a t t r a c -t i o n . ^ The import of o i l cannot be regarded as competition to coal as f u e l f o r thermal stat i o n s . The expanding petrochemical indus-t r y i n Omsk, Krasnoyarsk and Angarsk provided ready market and c e r t a i n l y give a higher marginal return than would be the case i f i t were consumed as f u e l . 5 0 With increased expansion i n the TABLE XIII THE COST OF PRODUCING ONE TON OF COAL EUROPEAN RUSSIA, SOUTH SIBERIA* Basin or Combinat Type of Coal 1956 . ( r u b l e s ) b South Siberian Bel t Kuzeritsk Basin (shaft) Kuznetsk Basin (open p i t ) Kansk-Achinsk Basin (open p i t ) Nazarovo Deposit 0 Irsha-Borodinsk It a t s k Deposit Cheremkovo Basin (open p i t ) * c European Russia Donetsk B a s i n d Moscow Basin Moscow Combinat Tula Combinat Hard Brown Brown Brown Hard Hard Brown Brown 5.660 2.900 1.100 .670 .498 2.000 8.100 5.673 6.291 a. J.A. Hodgkins, Soviet Power. Energy Resources. Production, and P o t e n t i a l . Prentice-Hall, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J.j 1961, p. 71. See a d d i t i o n a l l y Table XX. b. Corrected f o r 1961 devaluation. c. A.A. Stepankov, Ekonomicheskaya E f f e k t i v n o s t 1  Proizvodstva i Kapital'nykh""v~lozheniy, (Economic Effectiveness of Production and Capital Investment/, Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 94. d. This f i g u r e s l i g h t l y lower than Hodgkin's, (8.1 as compared to 9.5), A.A. Stepankov, l o c . c i t . 86 industry and p a r t i c u l a r l y i f the S i b e r i a n f i e l d s are exploited, i t i s probable that residues w i l l be used to generate e l e c t r i c i t y , but t h i s would represent a small portion of t o t a l thermal plant f u e l consumption. 51 While o i l i s currently being used to f i r e the multitude of small diesel generating units which exist i n Central Siberia, the absolute amount of o i l consumed i s i n s i g n i f i c a n t . The argument based on marginal returns can be applied also to gas, which w i l l be imported pending construction of the pipeline from the Lower Ob a r e a . 5 2 Coal w i l l remain the p r i n c i p a l f u e l i n t h i s region for at l e a s t the next decade. Indeed, plans f o r future thermal develop-ment center around the Itat coal deposit i n the Kansk-Achinsk basin. Envisioned i s a complex of thermal power st a t i o n s gener-ating 3 0 0 BKWH of e l e c t r i c i t y annually, the bulk of which i s to be marketed i n European Russia. 5^ With regard to e l e c t r i c power development i n S i b e r i a gen-er a l l y , there has been put forward a three stage plan-whieh u l t i -mately w i l l see 100 MKW of i n s t a l l e d capacity i n Central S i b e r i a . 5 4 At present, development i s nearing the end of the f i r s t stage which includes construction of the large scale thermal plants, Nazarovo, Tom-Usinsk and Belovo, the Krasnoyarsk and Bratsk hydro plants. The 15 MKW planned t o t a l capacity as yet has not been attained, but w i l l be upon a c t u a l completion of the Krasnoyarsk station. The second stage involves the construction of several other large scale thermal plants as well as the Ust-Ilim and Yenisey hydroelectric 37 s t a t i o n s , giving an i n s t a l l e d capacity of 35 MKW.55 j-^ ± s 0 f p a r t i c u l a r interest that the scheme revolves around developments of hydro s i t e s and construction of thermal plants within the region as i t has been defined, and does not include any major hydro development outside. While Central S i b e r i a i s generally referred to as a power af f l u e n t region, at present t h i s i s a gross oversimplification, fo r many areas are s t i l l power d e f i c i e n t . On the regional l e v e l shortages have been noted i n the Kuzbass i n d u s t r i a l centers e s p e c i a l l y , although to a c e r t a i n extent these have been o f f s e t by the recent integration of the Bratsk hydro station into the Central S i b e r i a n g r i d . 5° This integration resulted from the f a c t that as of l a t e 1963 the e x i s t i n g 3 MKW capacity was l a r g e l y going unused, f o r construction of the associated energy intensive indus-t r i a l complex had f a l l e n behind schedule, i n the case of the alu-minum plant at Anzeb by as much as 5° percent of plan.57 To rec-t i f y t h i s uneconomic situation immediate construction of a 1,000 kilometer 5°0 KV transmission l i n e (completion of which was o r i g -i n a l l y scheduled f o r the end of 1965) 5 8 was necessitated i n order to provide an o u t l e t f o r the power. 59 With i t s hurried completion at the end of November 1963, the geographic p o s i t i o n of Bratsk was e f f e c t i v e l y a l t e r e d since i t was integrated i n t o the Central Siberian g r i d supplying i n part the e l e c t r i c energy needs of the Kuznetsk basin, and acting as an interim power supply f o r the i n d u s t r i a l complex associated with the Krasnoyarsk hydro s t a t i o n . 0 1 88 As an example of the type of anomaly that had existed previously, coal had been transported from the Kuznetsk basin to the Novosibirsk thermal plant, e l e c t r i c i t y subsequently being trans-f e r r e d back to the b a s i n . 0 1 As might be expected with power shortages indicated i n the i n d u s t r i a l sector i t has been inferred r e c e n t l y that the domestic consumer has been faced with power r e s t r i c t i o n s . 0 2 The current construction of large scale plants tends to create a f a l s e impression of the l e v e l of e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n e x i s t i n g within the region. The trend toward large scale stations has not yet seen a decline i n the number of small plants (less than 1,000 KW capacity), i n fact i n some areas they have doubled i n number during the past decade.°^ This s i t u a t i o n i s i n large part a t t r i -butable to the lack of attention accorded the construction of low voltage d i s t r i b u t i o n l i n e s . ^ 4 The r u r a l areas l o g i c a l l y have been the most seriously a f f e c t e d as a r e s u l t . THE MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY I t has been stated here that the recent expansion of gen-erating capacity i n Central Siberia, p a r t i c u l a r l y hydro, was due to economic incentive, that i s , the p o t e n t i a l large blocks of low cost e l e c t r i c i t y . Yet i t should be pointed out that the f u l l benefits of recently constructed large scale capacity have not as yet been realized. Neither the thermal plants nor Bratsk are operating at f u l l capacity. Indeed the cost of e l e c t r i c i t y from 89 Bratsk i n 1963, . 1 5 kopeks per KWH, was four times that projected, (see Table X).° 5 This i s simply because the plant i s not oper-at i n g at f u l l c a p a c i t y — i t generated 8 BKWH i n 1 9 6 3 , one-third of the planned annual output. 0 0 Within the next year or two t h i s s i t u a t i o n w i l l be improved but at present, Central S i b e r i a i s a region of comparatively high cost e l e c t r i c i t y . On the basis of reports i n the press the cost here i s estimated to be not less than the national average, .74 kopeks per KWH.67 Indeed considerable concern has been evoked recently over the f a c t that the comparative high cost of e l e c t r i -c i t y has prevented the adoption of e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i n certain e n t e r p r i s e s . 0 8 While the enterprises are not s p e c i f i e d i t i s of si g n i f i c a n c e that the reason offered i s high cost and not shortage, which could perhaps be expected. As i t stands t h i s i s a rather incongruous s i t u a t i o n and one which requires further examination. The high cost of e l e c t r i c i t y from some thermal plants has been a t t r i b u t e d i n turn to the cost of coal (which accounts f o r over h a l f of thermal power cost). S t r i p mined coal from the Kuznetsk basin deposits and to a lesser extent, from the Kansk-Achinsk deposit, has largely replaced shaft mined coal as f u e l f o r thermal s t a t i o n s , yet there has been no a l t e r a t i o n i n price per ton. Thus the complaint has been lodged that the f a i l u r e to reduce price per ton to thermal plants has contributed to higher operating costs, therefore higher prices, since c a l o r i f i c value of the s t r i p mined coals i s generally lower and moisture content 90 higher. Moreover, the multitude of small generating units w i l l adversely a f f e c t the average cost of power i n the region, as cost of power at these plants can be anywhere from ten to f i f t e e n times the average f o r the grid system,°^ "While high cost has apparently r e s t r i c t e d e l e c t r i c i t y con-sumption i n Central Siberia i t i s necessary now to determine which are the p r i n c i p a l consumers. Although production figures f o r the Soviet e l e c t r i c power industry are "comparatively easy" to obtain, there i s a d e f i n i t e paucity of data concerning consumption of power, p a r t i c u l a r l y on a re g i o n a l l e v e l . An attempt has been made i n Appendix B, (Part l ) , to account f o r the major consumers i n Central S i b e r i a , wherever data permitted. The results of t h i s analysis are set down i n Table XIV, and as indicated three-quarters of the i n s t a l l e d capa-c i t y has been accounted f o r . The balance would be taken up i n large part by the f e r r o - a l l o y industry (located p r i m a r i l y i n the Kuznetsk basin) f o r which, unfortunately, production data i n any form i s not available. I t i s inter e s t i n g to note that close to one-half of the present i n s t a l l e d capacity i s required f o r what might be considered non-productive a c t i v i t i e s ; domestic and communal economy, e l e c t r i c railway and associated uses, l i n e l o s s and station consumption (Table XIV). The importance of the l a t t e r sector i s not generally recognized, but u s u a l l y requires about 10 percent of t o t a l regional i n s t a l l e d capacity. This f i g u r e w i l l vary depending on the length 91 TABLE XIV ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER—CENTRAL SIBERIA* JANUARY 196$ KWH Consumed Required KW Capacity Annually (BKWH) to Meet Demand (MKW) Sector 1 . Domestic and Communal Economy 3 . 0 .857 2 . A g r i c u l t u r a l Economy 1 . 2 . 9 2 3 3 . E l e c t r i c Railway and Associated Uses . 6 . 0 2 ,7 Industry 1. Aluminum 7 . 6 .915 2. Iron and S t e e l i Integrated 1 .27 .292 i i E l e c t r i c Furnace . 0 1 1 . 0 0 1 6 3 . Pulp, Paper and Cardboard .1192 . 0 2 7 8 4 . Synthetic Rubber . 3 6 0 . 0 5 7 5 . Nitrogenous F e r t i l i z e r .35 . 0 4 4 6 . A g r i c u l t u r a l Machinery .286 . 13 7 . Metal Fabrication and Custom Machinery 2 . 0 . 9 1 8 . Cement . 5 2 5 . 0 8 6 Line Loss and Station Consumption 6 . 0 1 . 0 5 Total I n s t a l l e d Capacity Required 7 .997 Total I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y — C e n t r a l S i b e r i a 1 1 . 0 Percent of Capacity Accounted For 7 2 . 7 a. A l l figures have been derived from calculations i n Appendix B. 92 and use of higher voltage transmission l i n e s , (220 KV and above). The s i g n i f i c a n c e of load f a c t o r i s revealed through a con-s i d e r a t i o n of the a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r . 7 0 Consumption of e l e c t r i -c i t y amounted to only 2 percent of t o t a l regional output, but i n order to meet t h i s demand over 8 percent of the i n s t a l l e d capacity was required.'''1 The a g r i c u l t u r a l sector, as w e l l as domestic, and e l e c t r i c railway consumption, are analogous i n that they have comparatively low load factors and consequently are expensive to service. Yet, even i n Central S i b e r i a where shortages of e l e c t r i -c i t y have been noted and current average cost i s comparatively high, the standard rate to domestic consumers, about 4 kopeks per KWH, s t i l l e x i s t s . 7 2 The d i f f e r e n t i a l between average cost (.7 kopeks per KWH) and s e l l i n g p r i c e , while high, i s not excessive and i s comparable to the North American s i t u a t i o n . The standard rate c l e a r l y i s not analogous. Within the region, the Kuznetsk basin i s at present the p r i n c i p a l consuming area. Expansion of aluminum production, the largest s i n g l e i n d u s t r i a l consumer, i s l i k e l y to cause a s h i f t i n the center of gravity of e l e c t r i c i t y consumption toward the Eastern part of the region, since expansion i s associated p a r t i c u l a r l y with the centers of Krasnoyarsk and Bratsk. Indeed, as two-thirds of the generating capacity now being i n s t a l l e d l i e s east of the Kuznetsk basin, one can expect that the center of g r a v i t y of pro-duction w i l l s h i f t as w e l l . In t h i s regard the Krasnoyarsk node i s emerging as a f o c a l point i n the Central Siberian e l e c t r i c i t y industry. Machine f a b r i c a t i n g industries (numbers 6 and 7 . Table XXV) w i l l remain the major consumers of e l e c t r i c i t y i n the Kuznetsk basin f o r at least the next few years. Industries of importance to Central Siberia generally, for example the wood products industry, are unimportant as consumers of e l e c t r i c i t y as Table XIV indicates. Transfer of e l e c t r i c power w i l l of ne-cessity be oriented to the west within the areal extent of the grid at present; but what of the i n t e r t i e with European Russia? It i s doubtless apparent from the foregoing discussion that there does-not e x i s t i n Central S i b e r i a c u r r e n t l y a surplus of e l e c t r i c power that could be transmitted to European Russia. However, excluding Sayan, about 11 MKW of capacity can conceiv-ably come under load i n the next f i v e or six years.7 3 i t has been stated that by 1970 Central S i b e r i a would generate 140 BKWH per annum,74 and by assuming an average 65 percent plant factor f o r the region t h i s would indicate an i n s t a l l e d capacity of 2 4 . 6 MKW.75 While c e r t a i n l y a considerable annual generation of elec-t r i c i t y , i t can hardly be considered u n r e a l i s t i c i n view of the f a c t that about 22 MKW i s accounted f o r by e x i s t i n g capacity, 1 0 . 5 MKW, and the 11 MKW under construction. The important consideration here i s whether or not there w i l l be a large block of surplus power i n 1 9 7 0 . I f such i s the case then an interconnection with European Russia could be j u s t i -f i e d . Once again i n Appendix B, (Part 2) the p o t e n t i a l consumers of e l e c t r i c i t y i n 1970 have been estimated. These results are 94 incorporated into Table XV. On the basis of planned and assumed expansion i n the various i n d u s t r i e s and sectors, i t was only-possible to account f o r 52 percent of expected capacity. Even allowing a wide margin of error f o r such industries f o r which production data i s not avail a b l e (e.g. f e r r o - a l l o y ) , Central Siberia could well be an area of surplus e l e c t r i c power i n 1970, perhaps as much as 15-20 BKWH annually. This would . s t i l l permit as much as 50 BKWH to be consumed i n those industries which are not included i n Table XV. Of the energy intensive industries however, i t should be pointed out that these are few. These ten-t a t i v e conclusions support Soviet statements that 10-15 percent of annual generation i n Central S i b e r i a (about 15-20 BKWH) w i l l be transmitted to the Urals at t h i s date.76 } This e l e c t r i c i t y could be consumed i n any one of the industries i n the Urals having a high load f a c t o r . From a t e c h n i c a l point of view the transmission of large blocks of power over long distances i s now f e a s i b l e . I t has just r e c e n t l y been announced that the 800 DC l i n e from Volgograd to the Donetsk basin, (a distance of about 500 kilometers) has been tested successfully over i t s entire length, (a 750 KV l i n e i s to be con-structed during 1965 from Konakova to Moscow ).77 In Central S i b e r i a , an important development i n t h i s respect was the construction of the 5°0 KV l i n e from Bratsk to Kemerovo i n the Kuznetsk basin. This, as Figure 8 in d i c a t e s , i s the "back-bone" of the g r i d system. There i s at present a weak intercon-95 TABLE XV ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER— CENTRAL SIBERIA 3 , 1970 KWH Consumed Required KW Capacity Annually (BKWH) to Meet Demand (MKW) Sector 1. Domestic and Communal Economy 3.3 .940 2. A g r i c u l t u r a l Economy 1.2 .923 3. E l e c t r i c Railway and Associated Uses 7.2 3 . 2 4 0 Industry 1. Aluminum 29.4 3.540 2. Iron and S t e e l i Integrated 2.1 .480 i i E l e c t r i c Furnace .011 .0016 3. Pulp, Paper and Cardboard .471 .0566 4 . Synthetic Rubber .360 .057 5. Nitrogenous F e r t i l i z e r .7 .088 6. A g r i c u l t u r a l Machinery 2.86 .130 7. Metal Fabrication and Custom Machinery 2 . 0 .910 8. Cement . 5 2 5 .086 Line Loss and Station Consumption 14.0 2 .46O Total I n s t a l l e d Capacity Required 12.9122 Total I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y — C e n t r a l Siberia 2 4 . 6 Percent of Capacity Accounted For 52.4 a. A l l figures have been derived from calculations i n Appendix B. 96 nection between the Central Siberian-Ural g r i d , which c e r t a i n l y i s viewed as a forerunner to an EHV i n t e r t i e which w i l l permit the t r a n s f e r of large blocks of power from Central S i b e r i a to European Russia.'''3 Insofar as costs are concerned, preliminary estimates i n d i -cate that blocks of power from S i b e r i a can be transferred to the Urals v i a an EHV DC l i n e giving a market prime cost of . 3 kopeks per KWH, of which h a l f i s made up by actual cost of transmission.^ This i s c e r t a i n l y lower than the average prime cost of e l e c t r i -c i t y i n the Urals region, (to be discussed i n Chapter V). While the actual cost of the l i n e i t s e l f has been estimated at 127 M. r u b l e s , 8 0 i t has been in d i c a t e d that a t r a n s f e r of 10-15 BKWH annually to the Urals would r e s u l t i n an annual saving of some 1 5 - 2 0 M. rubles through reduced f u e l consumption by thermal plants.31 On the basis of this estimated saving, t o t a l expendi-ture on the l i n e would be amortized i n les s than 10 years. In view of the technical f e a s i b i l i t y , economic incentive, and of importance, the p o l i t i c a l gain to be derived from the f i n a l completion of the "All-Union g r i d " over which so much pub-l i c i t y has been evinced, i t appears that the interconnection with the Unified European Power Network i s not so much a question of i f , but rather when. A surplus of e l e c t r i c power i n 1 9 7 0 , as Table XV indicates, could very well be the deciding f a c t o r . SUMMARY 97 Although the "economically a c c e s s i b l e " hydro resources are considerably less than the Soviet f i g u r e s f o r "gross" and "tech-n i c a l l y exploitable," Central S i b e r i a s t i l l has considerable hydro p o t e n t i a l , perhaps more than w i l l ever be harnessed. While the motive behind development has been economic, Central S i b e r i a has not r e a l i z e d as yet the f u l l benefit of the large scale pro-jects thus f a r undertaken. At present, the region i s not charac-t e r i z e d by low cost e l e c t r i c i t y , though a decreasing average cost can be expected during the next few years as the recent projects come into f u l l operation. The demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y currently i s not characterized by any p a r t i c u l a r industry or sector. In the future, aluminum production w i l l constitute an important share of t o t a l demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i n t h i s region. The con-cept that Central Siberia i s currently a region of surplus e l e c -t r i c power has been shown to be without foundation, yet i t i s enti r e l y possible that such w i l l be the case i n 1970. In t h i s event an i n t e r t i e with European Russia can be expected. 98 REFERENCES:: CHAPTER IV 1. While th i s chapter i s concerned primarily with a region delimited on the basis of the e x i s t i n g g r i d system, much of the data used i s ascribed to the East and West Siberian economic regions, the mutual boundary of which cuts through the g r i d j u s t east of the Kuznetsk Basin. However, t h i s does not constitute the handicap that might be expected, since f o r both regions about 90 percent of t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity i s embodied by the g r i d system; E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR, 1:8,000,000? ( E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of the U.S.S.R.), Glavnoye Upravleniye Godezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosu-darstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1963. While p r i o r to 1962 two thermal plants at Tyumen and Kurgan (part of the Urals g r i d system) were included i n the West Siberian eco-nomic region, these, l i k e the several i s o l a t e d stations, p a r t i c u -l a r l y i n the Trans-Baykal zone (Chita, Nerchinsk, Borzya), are of small capacity and therefore do not.negate any generalization based on regional s t a t i s t i c a l data and applied to the Central Siberian g r i d system; (Narodnoye Khozyaystvo RSFSR v 1962 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook , Tsentral*-noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Minstrov RSFSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 28.) The Ust-Kamenorgorsk i n d u s t r i a l area, as pointed out i n the opening chapter i s not included i n the Central Siberian r e g i o n a l grid, since no i n t e r t i e e x i s t s at present, nor i s one planned. 2. Fantastic Power from S i b e r i a , (unsigned), Soviet News  B u l l e t i n , Ottawa, Monday, November 23, 1964, p. 1. 3. Excludes Far East economic region; F. Ya Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki SSSR, (Development of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 60. 4. Ibid., p. 61. 5. From discussion concerning concept of hydro p o t e n t i a l i n Chapter I I . 6. Three very small dams have been constructed or are being constructed under permafrost conditions, Irelyakhskaya, Mamakan, and Vilyuyskaya projects, Large Dams of the U.S.S.R., A Transla-tion Prepared by the National Science Foundation, U.S. Government P r i n t i n g Office, Washington, D.C, 1963, p. XVI. 7. Data from Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Ocherki po G i d r o g r a f i i  Rek SSSR, (Essays on the Hydrography of the Rivers of the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1952, p. 158. 99 8. Clearly, the storage capacity would have to be consid-erable i f two months1 discharge was to be used throughout the year. 9 . For a discussion of the problem see, G. Gopkalo, Vedomstvennyy Bar'yer, (Administrative B a r r i e r ) , Stroitel'naya Gazeta, June 26, 1964, p. 1. 10. Fantastic Power from S i b e r i a , l o c . c i t . 11. There are three p o t e n t i a l s i t e s , Osinovsk, Nizhnetungsk and Igarsk, none of which are considered to f a l l into the category of "economically accessible" hydro p o t e n t i a l . For l o c a t i o n of si t e s see, A.I. Zubkov, Osobennosti Razmeshcheniya Promyshlennosti  RSFSR. ( D i s t r i b u t i o n a l Features of Industry i n R.S.F.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Sovetskaya Rossiya, Moskva, 1964, p. 5 2 . 12. See Referativny Zhurnal; Geografiya. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, January, 1963, p. 4 . 13. For example, the Vilyuyskaya station and the Mamakan plant (64,000 KW) on the Vitim River. Data on the Mamakan station, Large Dams of the U.S.S.R., op. c i t . . p. XVI. 14. I.P. Butyagin, et a l . . Energetika S i b i r i . (Energy i n S i b e r i a ) , Gosudarstvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1963, p. 2 9 . 15. I b i d . . p. 30. 16. Calculation from data i n Table VIII. 17. I t would not be possible now to accept Hardt's e a r l i e r conclusion that the movement i n t o the eastern regions was l a r g e l y the result of non-economic f a c t o r s . See, J.P. Hardt, Economics  of the Soviet E l e c t r i c Power Industry. PhD. Thesis, Cornell U n i v e r s i t y , 1955, Microfilm, p. 343. 18. G.A. Russo (ed.), Hydroelectric Power Stations of the  Volga and Kama Cascade Systems. ( V o l z h s k i i i Kamskii Kaskady Gi d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i , Moskva, I960), Published for the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., by the Israel Program for S c i e n t i f i c Translations, Jerusalem, 1963, pp. 13,35. 19. R. Hammond, Water Power Engineering and Some E l e c t r i c a l  Problems, Haywood & Company, London, 1958, p. 31. 2 0 . V.P. Petrov, E l e c t r i c Power, IV, Geography of the Soviet Union Series, Kamkin Inc., Washington, D.C. 1 9 5 9 , pp. 2 0 , 4 4 , 4 5 . 100 2 1 . Large Dams of the U.S.S.R., op_. c i t . , pp. 26-7. 22. A.M. Gindin, Organizatsiya S t r o i t e l • s t v a Bratskoi GES, (Construction Organization at the Bratsk GES), Gidrotekhniches- koye S t r o i t e l ' s t v o , June 1964, p. 2. 23. V.P. Petrov, op. c i t . , pp. 10,45; and Large Dams of the U.S.S.R., op_. c i t . , p. 281. 2 4 . V.Y. Steklov, E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i n the U.S.S.R., Foreign Languages Publishing House, Moscow, p. 3 2 . 2 5 . Large Dams of the U.S.S.R., op_. c i t . , pp. 30,281, 285, 288. 26. G.A. Russo, op. c i t . , p. 112. 2 7 . See, Soviets Build 500 KV-Grid i n S i b e r i a , E l e c t r i c a l  World. March 30, 1 9 6 4 , p. 19. 28. The following Table while somewhat theoretical does, nevertheless, reveal the expected higher rate of return per u n i t of investment i n hydro stations i n the eastern regions. Data from Ya A. Mazover, et a l . , Budushchaya Geografiya Toplivno-Energeticheskogo Khozyaystvo SSSR, (Geography of Fuel-Energy Economy of the U.S.S.R. i n the Future), Ekonomicheskaya Geograf-iya SSSR v Perspektiviy, (Economic Geography i n the Future), Voprosy Geografii No. 57, Moskva, 1962, p. 2 5 . 2 9 . I.P. Butyagin, p_p_. c i t . , p. 30. 3 0 . Ministerstvo E l e k t r o s t a n t s i i SSSR, Energeticheskoye  S t r o i t e l 1 s t v o SSSR za 40 Let (1917-1957), (Energy Construction i n the U.S.S.R. over 40 Years [1917-1957]), Gosudarstvennoye Energe-ticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1958, p. 49. Amount of power transmitted to Bratsk, however, not as great as might be expected; 6 0 , 0 0 0 KWH (220 KV line) x 8760 x . 3 (load factor) approximately Region River System C a p i t a l Expenditure f o r 1 KWH of e l e c t r i c energy. E. Siberia W. Si b e r i a Volga South U r a l Northwest Center Angara-Yenisey Verkhnye-Irtysh Volga Dnieper Kama Leningrad Center 100 140 220 370 250 400 450 101 160 MKW annually. Method from .0. Nash, B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, B.C.; 220 KV l i n e equivalent assumed since 500 KV l i n e actually constructed was not operating at f u l l capa-c i t y . 31. L.O. Saatchjan, G.N. L y a l i k , The Role of Water Power i n the Formation of Large Power Systems and Consolidated System in the Soviet Union, the F i f t h World Power Conference, Trans-formation of Water Power, Montreal, 1953, p. 631. 32. Naum Jasny, A Note on Rationality and E f f i c i e n c y i n the Soviet Economy I, Soviet Studies T Vol. XII, A p r i l 1961, #4, p. 36,8. 33. S.S. Agalskov, P l o t i n a Krasnoyarskoi Gidroelektro-s t a n t s i i , (Krasnoyarsk Hydroelectric Station Dam), Gidrotekhni- cheskoye S t r o i t e l * s t v o , A p r i l 1964, p. 16. 34. For data on U s t - I l i m see, Khronika S t r o i t e l * s t v o i E k s p l u a t a t s i i , (Construction and Operating News), Gidrotekhni- cheskoye S t r o i t e l ' s t v o , June 1963, p. 41; and f o r Sayan, G.A. Pretvo, Plotina Sayano-Shushenskoi G i d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i po R. Enisey, (Dam of the Sayan Hydroelectric Station on the R. Yenisey), Gidrotekhnicheskoye S t r o i t e l ' s t v o , A p r i l 1964, pp. 10-4, 35. In s p i t e of a heated controversy, the State Production Committee on Energy and E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n has refused to b u i l d a r a i l r o a d from Bratsk to the s i t e , although a road and 220 KV l i n e have apparently now been completed. See Navigation Over Dangerous Angara Rapids, (unsigned), Sovetskaya Rossiya. J u l y 12, 1963, Translations on U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power (21076), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, October 1963, Reel #2, p. 9. 36. See f o r example, Stroitel'naya Gazeta, January 5, 1964, p. 4. 37. G.A. Pretvo, o_p. c i t . , p. 12. 38. One other recent development which suggests that work at another s i t e i n the region could be started i n the near future, i s the construction of the Reshoty-Boguchany r a i l r o a d , l i t t l e publicized but now at least h a l f completed. I t i s being b u i l t presumably to service a proposed large scale pulp and paper m i l l at Boguchany, but could conceivably be u t i l i z e d to provide access to a planned hydro s i t e near t h i s center (Figure 8). To date there has been no mention of any plans along t h i s l i n e , however, since there are comparative economic advantages i n hydro construc-t i o n on the Angara-Yenisey, Boguchany would be the l o g i c a l next step i n harnessing the cascade.- Information i n , Building the 102 Reshoty-Boguchany Railroad Line, (unsigned). Gudok, July 10, 1963, Translation on Soviet Transportation (20S79J, J.P.R.S., Microfilm, September 1963, Reel #4, p. 7. 39. S.G. Prociuk, The T e r r i t o r i a l Pattern of I n d u s t r i a l i z a -t i o n i n the U.S.S.R., A Case Study i n the Location of Industry, Soviet Studies. Vol. 13, No. 1, July 1961, p. 72. 40. Current capacities of these plants l i s t e d i n Appendix B. 41. The 6 MKW figur e i s based on data i n Table IX. 42. This r e l a t i o n s h i p should not be confused with the re-quired KW capacity to meet the demand, a consideration of greater importance, see Appendix B. 43. Capacity of Nazarovo from Pravda. May 25, 1963, p. 2. 44. See, H.M. E l l i s , Power Generation and EHV Transmission  i n the Soviet Union. International Power and Engineering Consul-tants Ltd., Vancouver, B.C., June I960, p. 17. 45. Ibid., p. 18. 46. I.P. Butyagin, op_. c i t . . p. 36. 47. Pravda, l o c . c i t . 48. The problems as mentioned and the f a c t that the plant i s not yet operating at f u l l capacity, support t h i s estimate. 49. See Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta. September 7, 1963, p. 8. 50. This view i s supported by Die Erdblwirtschaft der UdSSR Forderung und Vorkommen, Insbesondere i n Siberien, Der Aktuelle  Osten; Kommentare und Nachrichten aus P o l i t i k . Wirtschaft und  Technik der UdSSR und der Sa t e l l i t e n l a n d e r . Bonn, No. 43, December 2, 1963, pp. 4 - 8 . 51. Preliminary d r i l l i n g currently at Markovo, R.E. King, Exploration and Production i n Europe i n 1963, Association of  American Petroleum Geologists; B u l l e t i n . August 1964, p. 1342. 52. Line s t i l l i n projected stage, Izvestiya. March 15, 1965, p. 4. 53. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta. June 20, 1964, p. 64. 54. For an outline see, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika; 103 Razvitiye Proizvoditel'nykh S i l Vostochnoy S i b i r i , (Energy, the Development of Productive Strength of Eastern S i b e r i a ) , I z d a t e l ' -stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, i 9 6 0 , pp. 2 0 2 - 5 . 5 5 . I t appears that the Sayan station has replaced the Yenisey proposal i n the second stage of the plan. 5 6 . Pravda, November 30, 1963, p. 1. 57. Yu. Khrakovskiy, Construction i n Eastern Siberia, Stroitel'naya Gazeta, Moskva, May 19, 1 9 6 3 , Soviet Regional Economy (19918), J.P.R.S., June 1963, M i c r o f i l m , Reel #2, p. 20. 58. I.P. Butyagin, op_. c i t . , p. 87. 59. Yu. Khrakovskiy, loc. c i t . 6 0 . I t i s possible that during the i n t e r i m before the aluminum plant at Anzeb i s complete, as much as 3-5 BKWH annually could be transmitted to the Kuznetsk Basin from Bratsk, (assuming the 500 KV l i n e to be operating at f u l l capacity). 61. K. Khyazev, We Must Give an Outlet to the Energy of the Angara River, Stroitel'naya Gazeta, (Construction Newspaper), Moskva, December 19, 1962, Translations on U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power (17380), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, February 1963, Reel #2 , pp. 61-3. For a discussion r e l a t i v e to a d d i t i o n a l confusion regarding e l e c t r i c power development i n this region see, James H. Bater, Government Polic y and Hydroelectric Development i n Central Si b e r i a , Studies i n Soviet Energy, Occasional Papers in Geography #7, Canadian Association of Geographers, B.C. D i v i s i o n , p. 69. 62. Power Shortage i n Various Areas Indicated, (unsigned), Bakinskiy Rabochiy, July 30, 1 9 6 4 , Soviet Economic System (26184), J.P.R.S., Mi c r o f i l m , July, August 1 9 6 4 , Reel #4, p. 3 . 6 3 . Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, op_. c i t . , p. 9» 6 4 . I b i d . 6 5 . Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, January 2 5 , 1 9 6 4 , p. 1 0 . 6 6 . I b i d . 67. I t would be expected that when hydro capacity currently under construction i s i n operation, average cost w i l l drop markedly. 6 8 . Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, February 2 9 , 1 9 6 4 , p. 4 2 . 104 L. Melent'yev, the author of th i s a r t i c l e , i s a leading Soviet authority on the e l e c t r i c power industry. 69. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, September 7, 1963, p. 9. 70. The load factors f o r sectors and industries are given i n Appendix B. 71. Percentages calculated from data i n Table XIV. 72. Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, Comparisons of the United States and Soviet Economies, Part I I . United States Government Printing O f f i c e , Washington, D.C, 1959, p. 433. 73. Assuming about .5 MKW of capacity s t i l l to be brought under load at Bratsk, 5 MKW at Krasnoyarsk, 4 MKW at Ust-Ilim, and approximately 1.5 MKW at the thermal plants, Nazarovo, Belovo, and Tom-Usinsk. 74. Pravda. January 17, 1964, p. 2. 75. As pointed out i n Appendix B, 65 percent i s not an unreasonable assumption f o r plant factor. 76. V. Vvedensky, E l e c t r i c Power Development, Studies on  the Soviet Union. Institute f o r the Study of the U.S.S.R., 1962, (4), p. 76. 77. Pravda, August 20, 1964, p. 2. 78. E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR, l o c . c i t . 79. See Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika. . ., op_. c i t . . p. 291; and Kommunist. July 1964, p. 70. 80. See Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika. . ., l o c . c i t . 81. Izvestiya. November 20, 1963, p. 4. REFERENCES: FIGURES Figure 8. Primary source, E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR. (1:8,000,000), Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 19o3» additional information drawn from, I.P. Butyagin, et a l . , Energetika S i b i r i , (Energy i n S i b e r i a ) , Gosudarstvennoye 105 u Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1963, pp. 40-46; V.P. Petrov, E l e c t r i c Power, IV, Geography of the Soviet Union Series, Kamkin Inc., Washington, D.C, 195.9, P» 47; Pravda, November 1, 1963, p. 1; J.A. Hodgkins, Soviet Power. Energy  Resources. Production and Potential, Prentice-Hall, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., 1961, p. 8. Figure 9. Data has been drawn from, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Geograficheskaya Problemy Razvitiya Krupnikh Ekonomicheskikh  Rayonov SSSR. (Geographical Problems i n the Development of Large Economic Regions i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Mysl', Moskva, 1964, pp. 86,140-158. Figure 10. Data f o r Volga from, G.A. Russo, (ed.), Hydroelectric Power Stations of the Volga and Kama Cascade  Systems" (Volzhskii i Kamskii Kaskady G i d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i , Moskva, I960), Published f o r the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C, by the I s r a e l Program f o r S c i e n t i f i c Trans-l a t i o n , Jerusalem, 1963, p. SO: f o r the Angara, G.V. Mazurenko, Angara i Lena v Pribaykal'ye f (Angara and Lena i n the Baykal Region), Gidrometeorologicheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Leningrad, 1959, p. 65. 1 CHAPTER V EUROPEAN RUSSIA It has been shown that the center of g r a v i t y of generating capacity has gradually edged eastward, e s p e c i a l l y that of hydro, a s h i f t which r e f l e c t s the diminishing European Russian energy resource base. The one feature common to the four regions dealt with i n t h i s chapter i s dependence to a greater or lesser degree on external sources of energy f o r the generation of e l e c t r i c i t y . Yet one must not lose sight of the fact that European Russia, including the U r a l s , s t i l l possesses well over one-half of t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity. Demand has been such, however, that e l e c t r i c power shortages have been noted i n many areas r e c e n t l y and doubt-l e s s constitute a handicap to i n d u s t r i a l production. The planned EHV i n t e r t i e with Central S i b e r i a i s one example of an attempt to overcome t h i s deficiency. The s t i l l growing unified power network i s a basic require-ment i f a l l areas are to bring supply and demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i n t o balance. The network as i t currently exists (Figure 11) i s not e n t i r e l y a product of the past decade, for i t has i t s roots i n the " l o c a l " power systems which have been evolving steadily since the early 1930 ,s. That of the Moscow i n d u s t r i a l area (Mosenergo) i s a case i n p o i n t . 1 It i s the high voltage i n t e r t i e s which are of recent o r i g i n . By the end of 1965 the u n i f i e d system i s ex-pected to have an aggregate capacity of 53 MKW (excluding the H Y D R O A O p e r a t i n g U n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n T H E R M A L I O p e r a t i n g U n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n ---25 MKW r 2 MKW * <( MKW • 8 0 0 D C L i n e • 5 0 0 K V L i n e • 2 2 0 - 3 3 0 K V L i n e -— — — L i n e u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n M a j o r C o a l d e p o s i t s H O FIGURE 11 THE REGIONS OF EUROPEAN RUSSIA 108 Northwest). 2 In t h i s chapter the major regional grids are examined i n terms of d i s t r i b u t i o n and. type of generating capacity, function, the p r i n c i p a l fuels consumed by thermal plants, and f i n a l l y costs of e l e c t r i c i t y . For European Russia as a whole the major con-sumers of e l e c t r i c i t y are estimated, (including a b r i e f considera-t i o n of external export arrangements and interconnected power systems). The Northwest region has been included since i t i s to be interconnected t h i s year (1965).^ Before the regional analysis, a consideration of the "eco-i nomically accessible" hydro potential of European Russia w i l l perhaps c l a r i f y the contribution that hydro can make toward meeting the ever increasing demand f o r e l e c t r i c energy. In t h i s discussion the Caucasus has been omitted, since t h i s area i s dealt with separately. HYDRO POTENTIAL The Volga, Kama and Dnieper Rivers (Figure 3), comprise about 80 percent of the Soviet figure f o r " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro potential i n European Russia (set down i n Table XVI).4 Only the northern areas, therefore, require consideration. Of the northern streams the Pechora has by f a r the largest estimated -po-t e n t i a l capacity (1.6 MKW), but i s not considered to f a l l within the bounds of "economically a c c e s s i b l e " hydro p o t e n t i a l for the following reasons. 5 F i r s t l y , there has been no evidence i n the 109 TABLE XVI TECHNICALLY EXPLOITABLE HYDRO CAPACITY—EUROPEAN RUSSIA BY ECONOMIC REGION* Economic Region Potential Capacity MKW Center Povolzhe Urals West South Northwest (and North) Total 1 . 7 1 4 . 9 1 2.17 1 . 14 2 . 1 7 5.25 1 7 . 3 5 a. Data from, F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki  SSSR, (Development of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , p. 6 0 . 110 recent technical l i t e r a t u r e of a desire to tap the hydro poten-t i a l here; i t i s mentioned i n the context of the long discussed d i v e r s i o n of the Pechora and Vychegda Rivers (Figure 3) into the upper reaches of the Kama.6 The purpose of this i s to improve navigation on the Volga-Kama system and perhaps most important, to o f f s e t the f a l l i n g l e v e l of the Caspian Sea.„ As yet nothing concrete has been done. Secondly, there are coal and possibly gas deposits i n the northern areas of European Russia which could provide alternative sources of e l e c t r i c power should a d d i t i o n a l be required.7 While precise data on other northerly streams such as the Northern Dvina and i t s tributary the Sukhona, i s not a v a i l -able, one source g i v i n g r e l a t i v e capacity at prospective dam sites i n d i c a t e s they are of minor importance.^ On the basis of this information the fi g u r e f o r current "economically a c c e s s i b l e " hydro p o t e n t i a l has been estimated at 16 MKW. The s i g n i f i c a n t aspect of t h i s consideration of hydro p o t e n t i a l i s to what extent i t i s currently being u t i l i z e d . I t has been estimated, as l a t e as I960, that European Russia excluding the Northwest and Caucasus, was u t i l i z i n g but 2$ percent of the " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro resources.9 Such a s t a t e -ment i s indeed misleading. As i s often the case i t was based on potential annual generation assuming a 100 percent plant f a c t o r at proposed s i t e s (see Chapter I I ) . I t i s the potential i n s t a l l e d capacity which i s the prime c r i t e r i o n . Since I960 two comparatively large stations have come into I l l f u l l operation, at Kuybyshev (2.3 MKW) and Volgograd (2.5 MKW) and r e c e n t l y the station on the lower Kama (1 MKW) has also come under load, although i t i s not as yet operating at normal head (see Figure 11). In Table XVII an estimate of current u t i l i z a -t i o n , based on "economically accessible" p o t e n t i a l , has been offered. The purpose of the Table i s simply to point out that over f o u r - f i f t h s of p o t e n t i a l hydro. capacity has already been u t i l i z e d . Insofar as the long run contribution of hydro toward a l l e v i a t i n g power shortages i s concerned, l i t t l e can be expected. What i s being done i n the various regions must now be considered. THE CENTER-VOLGA REGION B a s i c a l l y , i t i s the functional interconnection of the Center and Volga areas which j u s t i f i e s t h e i r combination into one region (Figure..11), for more than a t h i r d of the 1962 annual gen-eration i n the Povolzhye (Volga economic region) was to be trans-mitted to the Center. 1 0 The Center i s a power d e f i c i e n t area, the EHV interconnection with the Povolzhye being a dir e c t r e f l e c t i o n of t his f a c t . In terms of e l e c t r i c i t y supply i t i s expected that by the end of 1965 the Center w i l l have a d e f i c i t the equivalent of .6 MKW of i n s t a l l e d capacity. While i n terms of t o t a l regional i n s t a l l e d capacity t h i s may appear r e l a t i v e l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t , i t i s anticipated that t h i s d e f i c i t w i l l double i n the next f i v e years. 1-It i s apparent that keeping supply abreast of demand i s a problem of major proportion, even with an 11 MKW capacity expansion under 112 TABLE XVII UTILIZATION OF ECONOMICALLY ACCESSIBLE HYDRO POTENTIAL EUROPEAN RUSSIA Po t e n t i a l Hydro Capacity* 16 MKW Possible Annual Generation at 5° Percent Plant F a c t o r 0 16 MKW. x (8760) (.5) - 70.0 BKWH E x i s t i n g I n s t a l l e d Hydro Capacity 1964 10.3 MKWC (3.6 MKW currently under construction) Estimated Generation from E x i s t i n g Capacity 10.3 MKW.x (8760) (.5) - 45.1 BKWH Including Capacity Under Construction 3.6 MKW x (8760M.5) - 15.7 BKWH Estimated Percent U t i l i z a t i o n of Economically Accessible Hydro Resources (inclu d i n g capacity under construction) 86% a. Derivation of f i g u r e i n the foregoing text. b. Based on an average plant f a c t o r f o r 1962 of 4,314 hours per annum, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Moskva, 1963, p. 162. (8 7 6 0 — t o t a l number of hours per year). c. Based on data f o r capacity of ex i s t i n g and planned hydro stations i n Joint Hearings before the Committee on I n t e r i o r and Insular A f f a i r s and the Committee on Public Works, United States Senate, E i g h t y - F i f t h Congress Second Session. Water  Resource Programs of the United States, Russia and (Red) China, United States Government Pr i n t i n g O f f i c e , Washington, D.C, 1958, pp. 204-11; and G.B. Cressey, Soviet Potentials, A Geographic  Appraisal , Syracuse University Press, 1962, p. 218, based on personal knowledge of those plants i n operation. 113 the Seven Year P l a n . 1 2 What i s being done to meet t h i s problem i s o u t l i n e d i n the ensuing discussion. I t i s evident from Figure 5 that the Center-Volga region, together with the Urals and South (Donbass), constitute the three major concentrations of currently operating capacity. Although data on i n s t a l l e d capacity i s not a v a i l a b l e at this l e v e l , figures f o r t o t a l generation by economic region are, therefore estimates of regional i n s t a l l e d capacity may be derived. Such calculations have been carried out i n Appendix C, with the r e s u l t s summarized i n the following Table. Although hydro capacity comprises a comparatively large share of the regional t o t a l (Table XVIII), the lower average plant f a c t o r compared to thermal stations decreases i t s share of t o t a l annual generation of e l e c t r i c i t y . 1 3 The hydro plants on the Volga nevertheless play a f o c a l r o l e i n the whole U n i f i e d European Power Network, meeting a large part of the peak demand as mentioned e a r l i e r . The s t a t i o n s at Kuybyshev and Volgograd, f o r example, were designed at the outset to provide peaking power f o r the Moscow i n d u s t r i a l area during the la t e summer and winter months p a r t i c u l a r l y . 1 ^ The i n t e r t i e by 500 KV l i n e of Kuybyshev to Moscow and to Chelyabinsk i n the Urals, and of Volgograd with Moscow and by 800 DC l i n e to the Donbass, were certainly basic r e-quirements f o r such a r o l e , (Figure 1 1 ) . Over 14 of the 20 BKWH plus combined annual generation of the two plants i s scheduled to be transmitted to the Moscow area, the l a r g e s t part of the balance 114 TABLE XVIII ESTIMATES OF REGIONAL INSTALLED CAPACITY BY TYPE EUROPEAN RUSSIA 1962 a Hydro Capacity MKW Thermal Capacity MKW Total I n s t a l l e d Capacity MKW Center-Volga 4.9 11.3 16.2 Ural .753 11.0 11.753 South 2.7 11.3 14.0 Northwest 1.0 5.4 6.4 T o t a l f o r European Russia 48.353 a. A l l figures have been derived from calculations i n Appendix C. 115 being s p l i t between the Urals and the Donbass. 1 5 This r o l e permits the thermal capacity to operate c l o s e r to the optimum plant factor, thus achieving greater economy i n oper-ation. Indeed, as a r e s u l t of the interconnection of the Center with Kuybyshev alone, annual generation has been increased 150 MKWH, and an annual saving on f u e l requirements has been estimated at .507 M. rubles, almost one-quarter the t o t a l expenditure on the i n t e r t i e . ° The focus on the Moscow area has been l a r g e l y an attempt to offset the expected .6 MKW capacity d e f i c i t i n 1965. However, i f the tenor of the complaints i n the press are any i n d i -cation, i t has been f a r from successful. 1''' In view of the current construction at Saratov, Cheboksary and the Lower Kama (3.4 MKW combined capacity, Figure 11), i t i s l i k e l y that hydro w i l l maintain i t s r e l a t i v e share of regional capacity f o r the next few years. With the completion of these stations the hydro resources i n the region w i l l be near f u l l u t i l -i z a t i o n , therefore i n the long run the share must decrease r e l a -t i v e l y . With respect to thermal plants, almost two-thirds of the 11.3 MKW capacity i s made up by heat and power stations (TETS). 1 8 As the steam by-product i s used extensively for domestic heating the greatest concentration i s i n the Moscow urban area. This share i s l i k e l y to decrease r e l a t i v e l y i n the near future, as several large condensation plants come int o operation. Konakovo.., a projected 2.4 MKW capacity now under construction northwest of 116 Moscow, i s the l a r g e s t . This station alone comprises a f i f t h of the planned 11 MKW capacity expansion f o r t h i s region during the Seven Year Plan and moreover, i n terms of using gas as f u e l t y p i -ng f i e s a recent trend i n the region. 7 As i n the case of Central S i b e r i a , these large scale plants do not represent the greatest share of regional thermal capacity. As l a t e as 1958 coal and peat comprised about three-quarters of the f u e l consumed by power stations (in terms of conventional f u e l equivalent), a r e f l e c t i o n of the government p o l i c y of u t i l i -20 zing l o c a l f u e l resources. With the recent construction of pipelines to the Center (Figure 11) the r e l a t i v e share of natural gas i s to increase somewhat, primarily at the expense of peat. There had been an e a r l i e r , l e s s p u b l i c i z e d increase i n the use of 21 gas f o r by 1958 i t s share had more than doubled that of 1951. Compared with l o c a l coal and peat as f u e l , the s e l l i n g p rice of gas i s approximately 50 percent l e s s ( i n terms of conventional 22 f u e l equivalent, see Table XX). This i s because of the lower c a l o r i f i c value of Moscow brown coal, and peat. Yet whether gas w i l l increase i t s share beyond that indicated i n the following Table i s debatable, since i n d u s t r i a l consumers as well as the do-23 mestic market constitute an important growing demand. In deter-mining the best a l t e r n a t i v e use, f u e l f o r power stations could e a s i l y come out second best. This i s elaborated on shortly. At present i t i s used as f u e l primarily during the summer months, when i n d u s t r i a l and domestic heating demands are at a minimum. 117 TABLE XIX FUEL CONSUMPTION—THERMAL POWER STATIONS3 (IN TERMS OF CONVENTIONAL FUEL EQUIVALENT) ~ 1958 1965 (Planned) Fuel Percent Percent Coal 57 53 Donetsk Basin 24 32.3 Moscow Basin 26.5 15.2 Others 6.5 5.5 Peat 16.5 8.4 O i l 4.6 14.5 Natural Gas 15.4 21.0 a. D.G. Zhimerin, I s t o r i y a E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i SSSR; (History of E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Sotsial'no-Ekonomicheskoy Literatury, Moskva, 1962, p. 60. 118 It i s interesting to note that coal from the Donetsk basin i s scheduled f o r greater use i n the Center, while l o c a l coals w i l l decline (Table XXX). The reasons f o r t h i s situation were out-lined i n the foregoing discussion of the Cherepets thermal plant (Chapter IV). Some c r i t i c i s m has been voiced over the f a c t that coal i s s t i l l being imported from such remote deposits as the Kuzbass and Karaganda and burned as fu e l i n the Volga zone. 25 As a result greater emphasis i s -being placed on using residual o i l s as f u e l f o r power plants i n t h i s area. D Considerable i n t r a - r e g i o n a l variations exist i n prime cost of e l e c t r i c t y which, i n view of the concentration of hydro capa-c i t y i n the Volga area and i n l i g h t of the method by which prime cost of hydro i s derived, are to be expected. The average prime cost at s i t e i n the Povolzhye economic region, where hydro con-stitutes over half the i n s t a l l e d capacity, i s from . 3 - . 4 kopeks per KWH,27 about one-half the national average ( . 7 kopeks per KWH),28 while i n the Center where peat and coal f i r e d thermal plants s t i l l predominate, i t i s closer to . 9 kopeks per KWH, s l i g h t l y above the national average. 2 9 The extent to which hydro can a f f e c t the regional average prime cost i s revealed i n part by the delivered cost of e l e c t r i c i t y at Moscow from the Kuybyshev s t a t i o n — . 1 7 kopeks per KWH,3° (which l i n e loss accounts for , 0 7 4 kopeks per KWH).31 This i s down somewhat from an e a r l i e r e s t i -mate of . 2 9 kopeks per KWH.32 The increased emphasis on large scale thermal plant construction i n both the Center and Povolzhye, 119 together with hydro meeting part of peak demand, f a c i l i t a t e d by increasingly ramified EHV i n t e r t i e s , should have the long run result of diminishing t h i s range of prime cost variation. THE URAL REGION This region, l i k e the foregoing, has been a net importer of energy i n one form or another for at l e a s t the past two decades, but imports of large blocks of e l e c t r i c power have only taken place subsequent to the completion of the Kuybyshev-Chelyabinsk 500 KV i n t e r t i e . The regional grid i s composed of f i v e power systems which radiate from the major urban centers, interconnected by e i t h e r 2 2 0 - 3 3 0 or 500 KV l i n e s (Figure 1 1 ) . 3 3 Additonal i n t e r -connection with hydro stations has been effected with a 500 KV l i n e l i n k i n g up the Votkinsk (1 MKW) and perhaps eventually the Lower Kama ( 1 . 4 MKW).34 Such an intensive i n t e r n a l interconnec-tion c l e a r l y makes' f o r a highly functional regional u n i t . While no s p e c i f i c s t a t i s t i c has been uncovered, i t would be a safe estimate that an e l e c t r i c i t y shortage equivalent to that i n the Center exists i n the Ural region. Thus f a r there i s no-indication that the objective of 9 MKW of capacity to be i n -s t a l l e d during the Seven Year Plan has been attained. Even i f i t has, supply s t i l l has not kept pace with demand as there have been reports.of power shortages as late as summer, 1964.35 During recent years several suggestions as to how t h i s seemingly per-ennial s i t u a t i o n might be improved have been put forward, and 120 these w i l l be examined i n the ensuing discussion. I t i s apparent from Table XVIII that the absolute share of hydro capacity i s by no means comparable with that of the Center-Volga, but i t would be incorrect to assume that w i t h i n the Ural region h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y i s of l i t t l e importance. The import of hydro power during the f i r s t nine months of 1962 r e s u l t e d i n a saving of 5 2 , 0 0 0 tons of f u e l i n the Sverdlovsk power system alone.36 j n a region where l e s s than one-half of fu e l require-ments are s a t i a t e d by l o c a l resources, such savings are s i g n i f i -cant. One suggested a l l e v i a n t to the e l e c t r i c i t y shortage i s the Lower Ob hydro scheme. The preliminary estimate of prime cost of power at s i t e from a 6 MKW capacity plant i s . 0 3 kopeks per KWH which, according to i t s proponents, i s low enough to give a com-pe t i t i v e market price i n the Urals after t r a n s f e r costs.37 As has been stressed, the "economically accessible" hydro resources i n European Russia are nearing complete u t i l i z a t i o n , but t h i s scheme cannot be regarded as the next l o g i c a l step. Interconnec-t i o n of the Urals with Central S i b e r i a , where i n 1970 there could conceivably be a "surplus" of e l e c t r i c i t y equivalent to the poten-t i a l annual generation from the station, i s one of two f a r l i k e -l i e r a l t e r n a t i v e s . The second i s increased emphasis on construc-t i o n of large scale thermal plants f i r e d by imported f u e l s . Condensation e l e c t r i c plants (KES) comprise over h a l f of the 11 MKW thermal capacity, a two-fold increase r e l a t i v e l y over 121 t h e i r share i n the Center-Volga region.3°* This i s i n d i c a t i v e of the high degree of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i n the Urals and the conse-quent demand f o r power. Construction of several new condensation plants i n the 1-2 MKW capacity range has s t a r t e d recently. The Iriklinskaya s t a t i o n near Orsk i n the Southern Urals i s t y p i c a l of the new developments (Figure 1 1 ) . 3 9 It has a planned capacity of 1.8 MKW ( . 1 5 MKW turbines), and w i l l operate on both natural gas from Bukhara and o i l r e s i d u a l s from the r e f i n e r y at Omsk. This station exemplifies the necessary trend toward using imported f u e l s (in 1955 only about one-half of t o t a l f u e l consumption i n the Urals was supplied by l o c a l resources) . 4 0 There i s at least one atomic power plant i n the Urals (near Sverdlovsk) as there i s i n the Center (the f i r s t at Obninsk, west of Moscow, another at Voronezh).41 Being located i n regions of high cost e l e c t r i c i t y and situated near load centers helps i n part to o f f s e t t h e i r higher cost of e l e c t r i c i t y mentioned i n Chapter I. Since there have not been any d e f i n i t e plans f o r ex-pansion, atomic power plants w i l l remain at l e a s t i n the near future, unimportant i n terms of t o t a l regional capacity.4 ^ According to the Seven Year Plan gas i s to increase from 8 to 32 percent of the f u e l consumed by thermal plants.4 3 Q a s ^ s currently being piped to the Urals from Bukhara and construction i s underway on the p i p e l i n e from the f i e l d i n the Berezovo area.44 Both these lines are to extend to Sverdlovsk. This increase i s primarily at the expense of imported coal, which i s scheduled to 122 to drop to .14 percent from a high i n 1958 of 34.5 percent of a l l f u e l consumed at power stations.4 5 o i l and l o c a l l y mined coal w i l l maintain the same r e l a t i v e share. The regional average prime cost has been estimated at .8 kopeks per KWH (1958), j u s t under the na t i o n a l average at that time.4° With the trend toward large scale thermal plants, i t i s conceivable that i t has been reduced. This would be a minor reduction since i t must be remembered that the bulk of the power i s s t i l l generated from a multitude of small scale thermal plants. Currently, the lowest at s i t e prime cost of e l e c t r i c i t y i s about .23 kopeks per KWH.47 This w i l l a l t e r s l i g h t l y when the r e c e n t l y completed Votkinsk hydro s t a t i o n comes into f u l l operation, (estimated prime cost of power .18 kopeks per KWH).4^ THE SOUTH REGION This region now includes the North Caucasus and Moldavian power systems as both were rec e n t l y interconnected with the ex-tensive network of the South Ukraine.49 Neither of these new additions, however, contributed very much i n terms of i n s t a l l e d capacity (approximately 3 MKW).5° The grid evolved from the 110 KV l i n e interconnection between the Dneproges hydro st a t i o n and the Donbass i n d u s t r i a l belt i n the e a r l y 1930*s and as Figure 11 c l e a r l y indicates i s at present widely ramified. 5 1 The Donbass i s now linked by 800 DC l i n e with the Volgograd hydro s t a t i o n . This l i n e was designed at the outset to t e s t the te c h n i c a l 123 f e a s i b i l i t y of EHV long distance transmission of e l e c t r i c power from S i b e r i a to European Russia. The South regional g r i d , unlike those previously dealt with, has apparently not been a f f l i c t e d with serious e l e c t r i c power shortages.52 This i s perhaps due to the comparatively early emphasis placed on building large scale thermal plants. Six, each with a capacity greater than 1 MKW, are c u r r e n t l y operating i n the region (see Figure 11). Under the Seven Year Plan a further 10 MKW capacity expansion i s scheduled.53 Aside from the Dneproges hydro s t a t i o n , constructed under the o r i g i n a l GOELRO plan (1932), l i t t l e p u b l i c i t y has been accorded hydro development i n t h i s region, which simply r e f l e c t s the minor importance of the South Ts hydro potential.54 With the completion of the s t a t i o n at Kiev nearly a l l p o t e n t i a l w i l l be u t i l i z e d . The majority of the plants are of comparatively small scale and as c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of hydro plants i n European Russia, were designed to meet peak load.55 With regard to thermal capacity, the large share of conden-sation plants (KES), 60 percent of t o t a l thermal capacity, again r e f l e c t s the high degree of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the Donbass.56 jn contrast to the Ural and Center-Volga regions, however, the larger thermal plants are oriented not toward gas as f u e l , but coal. This i s despite the f a c t that a major gas f i e l d at Shebelinka i s close to the Donetsk basin, the greatest concen-t r a t i o n of i n s t a l l e d capacity, and that the pipeline from 124 Stavropol (situated i n the Caucasian foreland) to Moscow, passes through the same area (Figure 11). This c l e a r l y indicates that gas has better alternative uses than to be consumed as f u e l ; to sa t i s f y part of the demand of the energy d e f i c i e n t Center and increasingly, as a raw material f o r industry. T y p i c a l of the l a r g e r thermal stations f i r e d by coal i s Starobeshevo (1.1 MKW) a condensation plant southeast of the c i t y of Donetsk.57 Here l o c a l coal i s consumed at a cost of 8.4 rubles per ton at plant, at l e a s t three times as expensive as gas or o i l re s i d u a l s from the Volga f i e l d s (in terms of conventional f u e l equivalent, and taking into account cost of transport), but which s t i l l permits generation of e l e c t r i c i t y between .4-.5 kopeks per KWH at s i t e , a comparatively low cost.5® The rather minor role of gas as f u e l i n t h i s region i s i n -deed interesting i n l i g h t of e x i s t i n g , proximate reserves. The use of coal and coal f i n e s p a r t i c u l a r l y as f u e l , i s a l o g i c a l means of consuming what might otherwise be waste. According to one source, coal w i l l constitute over 80 percent of a l l f u e l con-sumed by thermal plants, and gas but 11 percent (conventional fuel equivalent) i n 1965. 5^ O i l and peat w i l l play a very minor role on the average, (within the region there are v a r i a t i o n s , f o r example, o i l residuals are of greater importance l o c a l l y i n the Caucasian foreland). In the generation of thermal e l e c t r i c i t y , obviously a num-ber of d i f f e r e n t fuels may be used. In Table XX both the cost TABLE XX PRIME COST AND SELLING PRICE OF SELECTED FUELS 1 9 5 8 a > D (EUROPEAN RUSSIA AND IMPORTED)c Cost S e l l i n g Price Rubles Per Ton or 1000 Cubic Meters of Gas Conventional Conventional Per Actual Fuel Per Actual Fuel Region Ton Produced Equivalent Ton Produced Equivalent Center-Volga Moscow Basin Coal 6 . 7 1 7 . 3 5 . 2 5 1 3 . 4 Ural Chelyabinsk Goal 4 . 7 9 . 1 4 . 6 9 . 5 K i z e l Coal 8.a 1 1 . 4 3 . 3 1 0 . 9 South Donetsk Anthracite 8 . 1 8.9 7 . 4 8 . 1 Ukrainian Gas (East and West Fields) . 5 3 . 4 3 10-12 8 . 3 - 1 ° Stavropol Gas 1 . 0 8 (Caucasus Foreland) .90 10-12 8 . 3 - 1 0 Imported Vorkuta (Northwest European Russia) 1 0 . 6 1 1 . 9 5.11 5 . 7 Karaganda Coal 5 . 1 6 . 9 6 . 6 8 . 0 Kuznetsk Coal Shaft Mined 5 . 7 6 . 1 5 . 7 6 . 1 Open P i t 2 . 8 3 . 4 5 . 7 6 . 1 a. Price of gas as f u e l not as raw material f o r industry. b. Data from, A.A. Stepankov, Ekonomicheskaya E f f e k t i v n o s t 1 Proizvodstva i Kapital*-nykh V l o z h e n i y , (Economic E f f e c t i v e n e s s o f P r o d u c t i o n and C a p i t a l Investment) , I z d a t e l ' s t v o Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , p. 9 4 . c. Regions are as delimited i n this study; p r i n c i p a l f u e l s being currently imported. 126 and s e l l i n g price of those f u e l s commonly consumed i n European Russia (excluding peat) are outlined. In terms of production costs gas was the l e a s t expensive of fuels i n European Russia. But even with the 2 rubles per 1,000 cubic meter standard price reduction to thermal stations, i t constitutes an expensive f u e l . 0 0 The small share of gas i n the South's regional f u e l balance c l e a r l y indicates that the consideration of a l t e r n a t i v e use was, and remains, of importance i n Soviet decision making, and l o g i c a l l y so. While i t i s a f a c t that f u e l constitutes over h a l f the operating expenses of a thermal s t a t i o n , i t i s also true that with regard to the capacity of thermal s t a t i o n s , within l i m i t s , increasing returns to scale are i n e f f e c t . I t would appear that i n the Ukraine especially t h i s l a t t e r f a c t , combined with u t i l i z a t i o n of a p o t e n t i a l l y waste energy resource, i s being e f f e c t i v e l y implemented. While current cost figures are not a v a i l a b l e the very f a c t that new thermal plants are not fueled by gas would imply that a s i m i l a r price d i f f e r e n t i a l s t i l l exists for gas from the Ukraine and Caucasian foreland (Stavropol). This conclusion i s supported by the fact that the gas reserves i n t h i s region are being r a p i d l y depleted. 0^ The new Bukhara-Urals pipe-l i n e to the southern Urals probably supplies gas at a lower price, since i t i s being promoted as a f u e l f o r the Southern Ural plants, but here a d i f f e r e n t situation e x i s t s as there are no alternative economic sources of e l e c t r i c i t y . The average prime cost of e l e c t r i c i t y from those plants i n 127 the Donbass-Dnieper bend region (the area of greatest concentra-t i o n of generating capacity as shown on Figure 11) was in 1 9 5 8 , 62 s l i g h t l y under the national average. In view of subsequent construction of large scale thermal plants, the current average prime cost i s estimated to be . 5 kopeks per KWH. With regard to the peripheral regions of the g r i d , the prime cost i s higher, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the re c e n t l y integrated Moldavian system where small scale plants (less than . 5 MKW) predominate. THE NORTHWEST REGION In comparison with the foregoing regions, the Northwest i s less important, both with regard to e x i s t i n g i n s t a l l e d capacity and p o t e n t i a l expansion. Most of the area covered by the grid i s indeed marginal i n r e l a t i o n to the o v e r a l l national economy. The nucleus of the g r i d centers around the Leningrad i n d u s t r i a l area, the balance of the power systems, as Figure 12 i n d i c a t e s , being rather weakly interconnected (usually 2 2 0 - 3 3 0 KV, but sometimes as low as 110 KV).^3 The transfer of large blocks of e l e c t r i c power, common i n other regions, i s here absent. Yet the North-west with the construction of several hydro plants on the S v i r River system, was one of the f i r s t areas to f e e l the impact of the early Soviet concern over e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n . Several projects are now underway or planned that w i l l bring at least the Leningrad area abreast of current developments i n the e l e c t r i c i t y industry c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of other regions i n the country. One of these i s 128 HYDRO A Opera t ing A Under construction THERMAL I Operating • Under construction 2 0 / BLACK SEA FIGURE 12 THE NORTHWEST REGION AND EAST EUROPEAN GRID 129 the 330 KV, (possibly 500 KV), i n t e r t i e between K a l i n i n (north-west of Moscow) and Leningrad, to be completed by the end of 1 9 6 5 . 6 4 In view of the a r e a l extent of the grid, i t i s not sur-p r i s i n g that hydro i s of comparatively l i t t l e importance (less than 20 percent of t o t a l capacity, Table XVIII). To be c e r t a i n , the hydro resources of the B a l t i c States and Byelorussia are minimal, but t h i s fact i s brought out even more since the North-west regional g r i d excludes the Murmansk area f o r which no i n t e r -t i e i s planned, (to be discussed i n the following chapter on Peripheral Regional Grids). 65 Once again new hydro plants are to be used for peaking purposes. The planned Plyavinskaya station (.825 MKW) on the Western Dvina i n Latvia i s scheduled to f u l f i l l t h i s role f o r the whole Northwest g r i d . D D Indeed, t h i s plant appears to be a good example of "over-machining" a stream since one source indicates that the hydro potential of the Western Dvina i s less than the capacity being i n s t a l l e d . As i s pointed out i n Chapter II, proximity to load center and costs of f u e l are important factors behind the decision to b u i l d such a plant. Within the region, the majority of stations are of small capacity, less than . 1 MKW.67 Condensation st a t i o n s , (KES), have i n the past ( 1953) com-prised the same share of thermal capacity as the heat and power plants (TETS), however, i n the Leningrad area the l a t t e r i s scheduled f o r more rapid growth and by 1965 i s expected to c o n s t i -130 tute one-half of total thermal capacity. 0 0* A similar trend for the rest of the region can be expected. Traditionally, peat and o i l shale have played a major role in meeting the fuel requirements of thermal stations. In Byelorussia for example, peat i s scheduled to meet a third of the fuel requirements for the Republic's thermal plants (1965). 6 5 In the Leningrad area, peat-fired thermal plants are by no means uncommon,70 even with the increased use of gas as fuel. Coal as a fuel, (coming principally from the Pechora basin),71 is gen-erally replaced by o i l shale as one moves farther south into the Baltic States. The utilization of local energy resources as fuel for thermal plants i s quite l o g i c a l l y given p r i o r i t y , for transfer costs on Pechora coal, and gas would be high and as mentioned earlier, there are doubtless far better alternative uses. Indi-cative of this i s the renewed construction on the Narva plant (now .8 MKW., planned 1.6 MKW) in Estonia, fueled by local l y mined shale, but which s t i l l generates comparatively low cost e l e c t r i -c i t y (.56 kopeks per KWH).72 In a region characterized by small scale thermal plants (less than .5 MKW) and fired by comparatively expensive fuels, ( i . e . peat and imported coal), i t i s l i t t l e wonder that the average prime cost of electricity (Ll-1.5 kopeks per KWH) i s above the national average (.7 kopeks per KWH).73 £s indicated fuel costs are a major factor, and even with a growing trend to-1 3 1 ward large scale plants and the scheduled i n t e r t i e with the Center-Volga g r i d , the Northwest w i l l remain a region of com-paratively high cost e l e c t r i c i t y . THE MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA I t i s evident from the foregoing discussion that i n some areas of European Russia, the expansion of generating capacity i s not keeping apace of demand. The evolution of a u n i f i e d power system has i n large part been j u s t i f i e d as being an important step toward equating supply and demand. I t i s necessary now to examine the demand for e l e c t r i c i t y . The p r i n c i p a l consumers of e l e c t r i c i t y have been estimated i n Appendix B, (Part 3)> and are l i s t e d i n Table XXI. Just under one-half of the t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity ( 4 8 MKW) of European Russia i s required to meet the demand of non-produc-t i v e a c t i v i t i e s ; domestic and communal economy, e l e c t r i c railways and associated uses, l i n e l o s s and station consumption. This importance as consumers i s due to comparatively low load f a c t o r s . For example, i n 1 9 6 2 12 percent of t o t a l generation was consumed by the domestic sector, but to meet this demand entailed using almost o n e - f i f t h of the i n s t a l l e d capacity. Since the largest urban population i s concentrated i n the Center-Volga region, one can understand the urgency of the requests f o r domestic consumers, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n Moscow, to avoid "wasting" e l e c t r i c i t y . ? 4 In t h i s region the domestic sector requires a higher percent of regional 132 TABLE XXI ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER—EUROPEAN RUSSIA* 1962 KWH Consumed Required KW Capacity Annually (BKWH) to Meet Demand (MKW) Sector 1. Domestic and Communal Economy 31.5 9.0 2. Agricultural Economy 7.3 6.0 3. Electric Railway and Associated Uses 15.7 7.1 Industry 1. Aluminum 11.4 1.37 2. Iron and Steel i Integrated 13.7 3.1 i i E l e c t r i c Furnace 1.9 .27 3. Pulp 1.1 .148 4. Synthetic Rubber 1.39 .213 5. Nitrogenous F e r t i l i z e r 7.0 .9 6. Cement 1 . 1 5 5 .138 Line Loss and Station Consumption 31.5 5.5 Total Installed Capacity Required 33.739 Total Installed Capacity—European Russia 43.35 Percent of Capacity Accounted For 69.0 a. A l l figures derived from calculations in Appendix B 133 i n s t a l l e d capacity than the average for European Russia, about one-quarter of the 16 MKW i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y . 7 5 Of the i n d u s t r i a l consumers dealt with, the integrated iron and s t e e l industry demands the greatest i n s t a l l e d capacity. How-ever, i n comparison with the smelting of non-ferrous metals i t i s of l e s s importance, (as mentioned, production data i s not a v a i l -a b l e ) . One or two i n d u s t r i a l consumers tend to characterize the demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i n certain of the regions. In the Urals production of aluminum alone requires 10 percent of i n s t a l l e d capacity. This demand coupled with the requirements of integrated i r o n and steel, and n i t r a t e f e r t i l i z e r production, accounts for almost a t h i r d of the estimated regional capacity. The location of " e l e c t r i c i t y i n t e n s i v e " industry i n the next few years would l o g i c a l l y be decided on the basis of a v a i l a b i l i t y of e l e c t r i c power. In th i s case European Russia, even with the advantage of market a c c e s s i b i l i t y , could very well be second choice i n comparison with a region such as the Kuznetsk basin wherein the p o s s i b i l i t y of surplus e l e c t r i c i t y exists. While the export of e l e c t r i c i t y may seemingly appear incon-gruous i n view of the foregoing, i t i s i n fact being a c t i v e l y pro-moted, p a r t i c u l a r l y with respect to the East European c o u n t r i e s . 7 6 As emphasized, while European Russia generally i s an e l e c t r i c power def i c i e n t area, there are v a r i a t i o n s within, from a serious shortage (Center) to apparent s u f f i c i e n c y (South). I t i s with the l a t t e r that the most s i g n i f i c a n t i n t e r t i e s and exports w i l l be 134 associated. The export of e l e c t r i c i t y i s of minor importance i n r e l a -t i o n to t o t a l Soviet annual generation, but i s scheduled to i n -crease during the next few y e a r s . 7 7 Since 1961 when e l e c t r i c i t y exports were s p l i t between Finland and Poland, an interconnection with Hungary has altered the pattern of export. 7^ In 1962. Hungary accounted f o r 171 of the 203 MKWH exported from the Soviet Union. 7 0 , Poland maintained the same p o s i t i o n , whereas Finland did not import any e l e c t r i c i t y during this year. There has emerged i n Eastern Europe a u n i f i e d power network with an aggregate capacity of 19 MKW i n 1961.^ The current areal extent of the network i s depicted on Figure 12. Development of t h i s system i s under the general guidance of the CMEA (Council of Mutual Economic A i d ) , and i s viewed as an important step i n f u r -thering cooperation between the member countries and the Soviet U n i o n . o x Within East Europe the primary function of the grid i s the same as that of the unified system of European Russia; to bring about a semblance of balance between supply and demand for e l e c t r i c i t y . ^ 2 The interconnection with the Soviet Union i s of varying importance to the member countries. Imported e l e c t r i c i t y amounted to less than 1 percent of t o t a l consumption i n East Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia during 1962.^3 Although actual export of e l e c t r i c i t y to East Europe i s scheduled to increase, i t i s doubtful whether imported power would ever amount to more than 5 percent of consumption i n any of the foregoing countries. With regard to Hungary i t i s of greater s i g n i f i c a n c e . One source estimates that as much as 1 BKWH could be imported annually, 84 almost 15 percent of Hungary's 1962 t o t a l generation. The g r i d i s shortly to be extended to Bulgaria, where imported e l e c t r i c i t y would also be of s i g n i f i c a n c e . ? On the other hand, while the export of e l e c t r i c i t y i s planned to increase considerably during the next few years, i t i s u n l i k e l y to be more than 1 percent of t o t a l Soviet annual generation at any t i m e . 8 0 SUMMARY In European Russia there has been continued emphasis on the u t i l i z a t i o n of l o c a l energy resources f o r the generation of power. This u t i l i z a t i o n has not been s u f f i c i e n t to meet demand. Hydro po t e n t i a l i s r a p i d l y diminishing and the import of coal, recently gas, and to a l e s s e r extent the import of e l e c t r i c i t y per se, reveal the growing energy demand i n European Russia. Thus f a r , the Urals and Center-Volga have experienced the most serious power shortages, due primarily to the high degree of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and heavy concentration of urban population respectively. The South i n contrast appears not to be i n quite the same s i t u a t i o n , the r e s u l t both of i t s broader energy resource base and a more d i v e r s i f i e d demand. Other than the high cost of e l e c t r i c i t y , the e l e c t r i c power industry i n the Northwest region lacks any .distinguishing feature and w i l l remain of peripheral importance. What e f f e c t the inadequate European energy supply w i l l have on the e x i s t i n g s p a t i a l pattern of production and con-sumption of e l e c t r i c i t y i s uncertain, but c l e a r l y regions l i k e Central S i b e r i a are assuming greater significance, either i n terms of possible l o c a t i o n f o r new " e l e c t r i c i t y intensive" industry or as a source of e l e c t r i c power. Of the possible effectiveness of an EHV i n t e r t i e with Central S i b e r i a more w i l l be said l a t e r . Regarding the export of e l e c t r i c i t y , i t i s and w i l l continue to be of varying importance to the member countries of the East European g r i d , but i n r e l a t i o n to t o t a l Soviet generation w i l l remain inconsequential. 137 REFERENCES: CHAPTER V 1. See maps i n M. Ya. Ufayeba et_ a l . , Mosenergo Za 40 Let, (Moscow Energy System Over the Past 40 Years}, Gosudarstvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1958, pp. 203-12. 2. D.G. Zhiraerin, I s t o r i y a E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i SSSR. (History of E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of the U.S.S.R.), I z d a t e l 1 s t v o S o t s i a l ' n o -Ekonomicheskoy Literatury, Moskva, 1962, p. 3 & 3 . 3 . See following section of Northwest region. 4 . Calculated from F. Ya. Nesteruk. Razvitiye Gidroenerge- t i k i SSSR. (Development of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 61; and Yu. A. Babenko. E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a U k r a i n i . ( E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of the Ukraine), Derzhterkhvidav UKSR7~Kiev, 1958, p. 2 5 . 5 . F. Ya. Nesteruk, l o c . c i t . 6. For general discussion see S.L. Vendrov, et. a l . , The Problem of Transformation and U t i l i z a t i o n of the Water Resources of the Volga River and the Caspian Sea, Soviet Geography: Review  and Translation. September 1964, p. 3 2 . 7 . A.F.- Anufriyev and Ya. A. Sutryaga, Energeticheskiye.  Resursy Komi ASSR, (Energy Resources of the Komi A.S.S.R*), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, pp. 5 - 7 . 8. Data on prospective dam s i t e s from map i n S.F. Shershov, Bely Ugol, (White Coal), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1957, pp. 82 - 3 . 9. Estimate of u t i l i z a t i o n i n I960 i n Referativny Sbornik: Ekonomika Promyshlennosti, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, May 1962, p. 75. 10. The Center region for the most part delimits the Moscow i n d u s t r i a l zone. The areal extent of the regions used i n t h i s chapter i s discussed i n Appendix C. 11. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Problemy Gidroenergetiki i  Regulirovaniya Rechnogo Stoka, (Problems of Hydraulic Energy and Regulation of River Flow), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I960, p. 47. 12. D.G. Zhimerin, op_. c i t . , p. 398. 1 3 . For calculations see Appendix C. 138 14. G.A. Russo (ed.). Hydroelectric Power Stations of the  Volga and Kama Cascade Systems. ( V o l z h s k i i i Kamskii Kaskady Gid r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i , Moskva, I 9 6 0 ) , Published for the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. by the I s r a e l Program f o r S c i e n t i f i c Translations, Jerusalem, 1 9 6 3 , pp. 1 16-7 . 1 5 . Data on amount of power to be transmitted from V.I.. Popkov, EES; Rasskaz o Edinoi Energeticheskoi Sisteme SSSR. (E.E.S.; Development of a Single Energy System i n the U.S.S.R.;):, Molodaya Gvardiya, Moskva, 1961 , p. 3 2 ; since the l i n e to the Donbass has just recently been put into operation, l i t t l e power was a c t u a l l y transmitted to t h i s area. For additional informa-ti o n regarding the role of the Volga area within the European g r i d , see Referativnyi Zhurnal; Elektrotekhnika i Energetika #E.  Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i . Seti i Sistemi. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, May 1964, (5 E 1 6 3 ) , p. 2 4 . 1 6 . Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i . February 1964, p. 34» 1 7 . See for example, Power Shortages i n Various Areas Indicated, Bakinskiy Rabochiy. July 3 0 , 1 9 6 4 , (unsigned), Soviet Economic System ( 2 6 1 8 4 ) , J.P.R.S., Microfilm, July-August 1 9 6 4 7 Reel #3, p. 2 2 ; and People of Moscow Urged to Economize on E l e c t r i c Power, Moskovskaya Pravda. (unsigned), March 1 5 , 1964, Translations of U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power, ( 2 5 7 S 9 ) , J.P.R.S., Microfilm, July-August 1 9 6 4 , Reel #3, p. 48. 18. A discussion of the function of TETS plants can be found i n Chapter I I I , data on share from Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i . November 1 9 6 3 ; p. 4 7 , and D.G* Zhimerin, op_. c i t . , p. 3 9 9 . 1 9 . See E.A. Trofimovskaya, Edinaya Energeticheskaya, (Single Energy System), Izdatel'stvo Znaniye, Moskva, 1963, p. 1 9 . 2 0 . According to Hodgkins, "Conventional Fuel i n the Soviet Union i s s i m i l a r to the bituminous equivalents used i n publica-tions of the Western world. Simply stated, a l l energy resources are converted to units of 7 , 0 0 0 calories; t h i s i s equal i n heating capacity to a kilogram of Kuznetsk bituminous co a l . " J.A. Hodgkins, Soviet Power; Energy Resources. Production and  Po t e n t i a l s , Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., 1 9 6 1 , p. 1 0 2 , Footnote #1, Table 1 0 . 2 1 . M. Ya. Ufayeba, p_p_. c i t . , p. 6 1 . 2 2 . In addition to Table XX see J.A. Hodgkins, op. c i t . . p. 137. 2 3 . I b i d . t p. 1 3 6 . 139 2 4 . V.M. Galperin, Natural Gas i n the U.S.S.R. Power Economy, Sixth World Power Conference, Melbourne, 1962, p. 1263. 25. See Yu. N. Savenko, The Fuel Balance of Kuybyshev Oblast, Soviet Geography: Review and Translation, June 1961, p. 74; and J.A. Hodgkins, op. c i t . , p. 188, Table V, Coal Appendix, 2 6 . Yu. N. Savenko, loc. c i t . 27. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, September 7, 1963, p. 8. 23. Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , March 1 9 6 4 , p. 3. 2 9 . L.A. Melent'yev, E.O. Shteyngauz, Ekonomika Energetiki  SSSR, (Economic Energy U.S.S.R.), Gosudarstvennoye Energetiches-koye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1959, p. 132; t h i s figure f o r 1953 probably l i t t l e changed. 30. Data from D.G. Zhimerin, op_. c i t . , p. 371. Cost would be somewhat higher from Volgograd i n view of the greater distance. 3 1 . A.A. Stepankov, Ekonomicheskaya E f f e k t i y n o s t ' Proizvodstva i Kapital'nykh VlozhenivT (Economic Effectiveness of Production and Cap i t a l Investment), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 143. 32. S.F. Shershov, p_p. c i t . , p. 32. The actual s e l l i n g price of e l e c t r i c i t y to the domestic sector i s currently about 4 kopeks per KWH. See br i e f discussion i n Chapter IV. Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, Comparisons of  the United States and Soviet Economies, Part I I , United States Government Printing O f f i c e , Washington, D.C, 1959, p. 433. 33. See Referativny Zhurnal: Elektrotekhnika i Energetika  #E, Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , S e t i i Sistemi, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, May 1964, (5 E166), p. 2 5 . 34. E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR, (1:8,000,000), Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo Geologiches-kogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1963. 35. See Footnote #15; and Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, June 27 , I 9 6 4 , p. 4 4 , f o r s p e c i f i c power deficiency i n the Urals. 3 6 . Saving i n terms of conventional f u e l equivalent, Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , January, 1 9 6 3 , p. 4« 3 7 . Referativny Zhurnal; Geografiya, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, January 1963, p. 4, considerable f u e l savings are also indicated. 140 3 8 . Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , November 1 9 6 3 , p. 47, (5.61 MKW i n s t a l l e d capacity i n condensation plants [KES]). 39. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, June 2 7 , 1964, p. 45* 4 0 . From, S.G. Prociuk, The T e r r i t o r i a l Pattern of I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i n the U.S.S.R., A Case Study i n the Location of Industry, Soviet Studies, V o l . 13, No. 1, J u l y 1961, p. 75. 4 1 . Location from E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR, l o c . c i t . For a l i s t i n g of atomic power plants and capacities see, H. Machowski, Die Entwicklung der E l e c t r o i n d u s t r i e i n dem Ostblockstaaten, Ost  Europa Wirtschaft, A p r i l 1 9 6 3 , p. 2 1 4 . See a d d i t i o n a l l y Footnote #7, Chapter I. 4 2 . H. Machowski, I b i d . 43. D.G. Zhimerin, op_. c i t . , p. 404. 44. Izvestiya, March 15, 1965, p. 4. 4 5 . S.G. Prociuk, op_. c i t . , p. 76. 46. L.A. Melent'yev, l o c . c i t . 47. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, June 20, 1964, p. 1 4 . Probably from Troitsk plant. 48. G.A. Russo (ed.), op., c i t . , p. 117. 49. Energetika, November 1963, p. 2. 5 0 . Based on estimate of i n s t a l l e d capacity derived from t o t a l generation i n the North Caucasus and Moldavia, Narodnoye  Khozyaystvo RSFSR v 1962 Godu, S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 78; and Narodnoye  Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 161. 5 1 . H i s t o r i c a l account i n Ministerstvo E l e k t r o s t a n t s i i SSSR, Energeticheskoye S t r o i t e l ' s t v o SSSR Za 40 Let (1917-1957). (Energy Construction i n the U.S.S.R. over 40 Years [1917-19573 ;, Gosudar-stvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1958, p. 17. 5 2 . The South at least has not been referred to i n the recent press reports concerning power shortages, see Footnotes # 15,35. 141 5 3 . D.G. Zhimerin, op_. c i t . , p. 411 • 5 4 . I t has recently been announced that the Dneproges plant w i l l be doubled i n capacity with the addition of six . 1 2 5 MKW turbines. Soviet News B u l l e t i n , Ottawa, February 2, 1 9 6 5 , p. 2. 55. See A.A. Bestchinsky, Water Power i n Energy Systems, Sixth World Power Conference; Transformation of Water Power. Melbourne, 1962, p. 2346. For a l i s t of capacities of the hydro stations i n t h i s area, see, Joint Hearings before the Committee on I n t e r i o r and Insular A f f a i r s and the Committee on Public Works, United States Senate, E i g h t y - F i f t h Congress Second Session, Water Resource Programs of the United States, Russia and  (Red) China, United States Government Printing O f f i c e , Washington, D.C., 1958, pp. 203-211. 5 6 . Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , l o c . c i t . 5 7 . Ibid., p. 4 . 5 8 . H.M. E l l i s , Power Generation and EHV Transmission i n  the Soviet Union, International Power and Engineering Consultants Ltd., June I960, p. 22. See also Table XX. 59. D.G. Zhimerin, op_. c i t . , p. 4 1 2 . 60. Standard price reduction from, T.A. Brents, NoViya Optoviya Stena na Gazovoye, (New Wholesale Price of Gas), Gazovoye Delo, August 1963, p. 47. 61. At Shebelinka f o r example, current production w i l l ex-haust known reserves i n less than 15 years. Reserves, 350 b i l l i o n cubic meters, from Yu. Bokserman, Puti Razvitiye Noviya Tekhniki  Gazovoye Promyshlennosti, Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1964, p. 4 2 ; production i n 1963, 21 b i l l i o n cubic meters from R.E. King, Exploration and Production i n Europe i n 1963, Association of  American Petroleum Geologists; B u l l e t i n , August 1964, p. 1342. 62. L.A. Melent'yev, l o c . c i t . 6 3 . E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR, l o c . c i t . 6 4 . Ibid. 6 5 . See for example, M.N. Murashka, Vodnoenergeticheskiy  Kadastr' Belorusskoy SSR, (Hydraulic Energy i n the Byelorussian S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk BSSR, Minsk, I960, pp. 24-8. 66. See Sovetskaya Latviya, October 16, 1963, p. 2, Trans-lations of U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power (22631), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, 142 January 1 9 6 4 , Reel #12, p. 34. 67. J o i n t Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, loc. c i t . 68. D.G. Zhimerin, op_. c i t . , p. 406. 69. M.N. Murashka, op_. c i t . , p. 5. 70. See map i n Severo-Zapad R.S.F.S.R., (Northwest R.S.F.S.R..), Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Izdatel'stvo Mysl', Moskva, 1 9 6 4 , p. 1 7 2 . 71. Ib i d . , p. 171. 72. J.A. Hodgkins, op_. c i t . , p. 93. 7 3 . L.A. Melent'yev, l o c . c i t . 7 4 . In Moscow, f o r example, 20 percent df e l e c t r i c i t y con-sumed by households. Moskovskaya Pravda, loc. c i t . 7 5 . Calculated from data i n Tables XVIII and XXI. 7 6 . A general discussion i n Referativny Sbornik: Ekonomika  Promyshlennosti. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, A p r i l 1964, (4 B 4 4 ), p. 1 9 . 7 7 . Annual B u l l e t i n of E l e c t r i c Energy S t a t i s t i c s f o r Europe 1962. United Nations, Geneva, 1963, p. 60. 78. The S i t u a t i o n and Future Prospects of Europe's E l e c t r i c  Power Supply Industry i n 1961/62, United Nations, Geneva. 1963. p. 62. 79. Annual B u l l e t i n . . ., op_. c i t . , p. 4 6 . 80. Referativny Sbornik: Ekonomika Promyshlennosti, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, February 1964, (2 B55), p. 18. Of"this, l e s s than 5 percent i s hydro capacity. Rumania not included. 81. See K.D. Lavrenenko, U.S.S.R. Power Developments and International Cooperation, S i x t h World Power Conference. Melbourne, 1962, p. 4998. 32. Referativny Sbornik: Ekonomika Promyshlennosti, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, A p r i l I 9 6 4 , l o c c i t . 83. Referativny Sbornik: Ekonomika Promyshlennosti, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, March 1964, (3 B52), p. 13; and Annual B u l l e t i n . . ., op_. c i t . , pp. 62,65 , 4 7 , 5 3 . 143 8 4 . Referativny Sbornik: Ekonomika Promyshlennosti, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, February 1 9 6 4 , (2 B5I); p. 16, and the Annual B u l l e t i n . . ., op_. c i t . , p. 5 5 . 8 5 . Referativny Sbornik: Ekonomika Promyshlennosti, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, September 1 9 6 3 , (9 B 4 7 ) , p. 1 4 . 8 6 . This would indicate an export of 5 BKWH at the end of 1 9 6 5 , a figure which i s not l i k e l y to be exceeded. REFERENCES: FIGURES Figure 11. Primary source, E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR, (1:8,000,000), Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i . Gosudarstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1963; additional data from, Izvestiya. March 15, 1965, p. 4» Energetika. (Energetics), November 1963, p. 2; J.A. Hodgkins, Soviet Power. Energy Resources, Production and Po t e n t i a l . Prentice-Hall, Englewood C l i f f s , N.il., 1961, p. 8. Figure 12. Primary sources are, E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR. (1:8,000,000), Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1963; The Situation and Future Prospects of Europe's E l e c t r i c Power  Supply Industry i n 1961-62. United Nations. Geneva. 1963, Map 3. * CHAPTER VI THE PERIPHERAL REGIONS The peripheral regions are unimportant i n terms of absolute s i z e of i n s t a l l e d capacity, but are of interest since developments often reveal most c l e a r l y current trends. In t h i s chapter the e l e c t r i c i t y industry i s discussed by region, emphasis being placed on current trends with only a general outline of the p r i n c i p a l features of the industry, ( i . e . i n s t a l l e d capacity, generation of power by type of capacity, and costs of e l e c t r i c i t y ) . F i n a l l y , the consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y i n the various regions i s compared but again i n less d e t a i l than heretofore. HYDRO POTENTIAL While the Far East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus possess a t h i r d of the Soviet's " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro resources, only a small portion of t h i s p o t e n t i a l has thus f a r been devel-oped. 1 Before proceeding with the regional discussion, the basis of the Soviet figures for " t e c h n i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e " potential are examined and f o r two areas estimates of "economically a c c e s s i b l e " potential are offered. THE FAR EAST The " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro p o t e n t i a l of the Far East, as depicted by Table XXII, i s considerable, yet the region 145 TABLE XXII TECHNICALLY EXPLOITABLE HYDRO CAPACITY PERIPHERAL AREAS* Potential Capacity MKW Far E a s t 0 28.5 Central A s i a G 3 2 . 4 Caucasus0- 11.8 a. Data from F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki  SSSR. (Development of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 60. b. Refers to the Far East economic region. See Figure 7. c. Figure applies to the economic regions of Central Asia and Kazakhstan. d. Refers to the Transcaucasus and North Caucasus economic regions. 146 has witnessed very l i t t l e hydro development. Thus, i s the fi g u r e 28 MKW. r e a l i s t i c as a measure of hydro resources? The d i s t r i b u -t i o n of p o t e n t i a l constitutes the c r i t i c a l frame of reference i n t h i s respect. The Amur River represents the l a r g e s t potential of any single stream i n the Far East (over 10 MKW), but current p o l i t -i c a l r e l a t i o n s with Communist China preclude any large scale development of common dam s i t e s , (Figure 3 K 2 S i t e s on the head-waters of the Kolyma and Maya Rivers comprise about 30 percent of the " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" potential (Figure 3 ) , but there e x i s t several negative features.3 Permafrost, extreme concentra-t i o n of annual discharge, and r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n , stressed i n the discussion of Central S i b e r i a , are equally applicable to the s i t -uation here. 4 The market f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i n the Far East i s not such to engender optimism over the p o s s i b i l i t y of development at these s i t e s and the emergence of i n d u s t r i a l complexes proximate to t h i s remote potential i s at present only a nebulous concept. 5 Using Shershov as a guide to capacity at prospective dam s i t e s , almost 18 MKW can j u s t i f i a b l y be excluded. 6 There remains, therefore, 10 MKW of "economically accessible" hydro potential. CENTRAL ASIA In Central Asia hydro resources are p e r i p h e r a l l y located, (Figure 3 ) . Of the Republics comprising the 32 MKW "tech n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro potential, (Table XXII), the Tadzhik SSR has 147 the largest share. 7 The majority of s i t e s on two of the three r i v e r s i n Central A s i a having more than 4 MKW p o t e n t i a l capacity are located i n t h i s Republic.** Relative location does not play the same role as i n the Far East, since a l l sites l i e w i t h i n 400 miles of the potential market, a distance over which EHV transmission of e l e c t r i c i t y has proven successful. Nevertheless, s i t e s accounting f o r 10 MKW are not part of e x i s t i n g plans f o r u t i l i z i n g hydro resources. These are found on the upper reaches of the Pyandzh and the Naryn Rivers es p e c i a l l y . ^ I n a c c e s s i b i l i t y , and the f a c t that the Pyandzh i s common to Communist China, appear to be the p r i n c i p a l reasons f o r the omission of many s i t e s from current plans. By deducting t h i s potential approximately 20 MKW remain i n the "economically acces-s i b l e " category. Of t h i s , 4»5 MKW i s represented by hydro s t a -tions i n operation or under c o n s t r u c t i o n . 1 0 THE CAUCASUS T r a d i t i o n a l l y the hydro resources of the Caucasus have been accorded considerable p u b l i c i t y , although constituting a compara-t i v e l y small share of the national t o t a l . 1 1 Within the area, the po t e n t i a l i s again unevenly di s t r i b u t e d , the Georgian SSR having about one-half, (Table XXII). A c c e s s i b i l i t y i s not here a factor of major importance inasmuch as the majority of s i t e s l i e within f e a s i b l e transmission distance and i n a ter r a i n which can only be considered less rugged than i n Central Asia. A d d i t i o n a l l y there 148 i s not the problem of prospective s i t e s being contiguous with foreign s t a t e s , 1 2 As recently as 1959, i t has been stated that only 7 percent of the hydro resources of the Caucasus were being u t i l i z e d . 1 - ^ Based on possible generation at 100 percent plant f a c t o r this was very much an underestimation. In f a c t by 1962 the 4*5 MKW of ca-pacity operating or under construction constituted nearly 40 per-cent of the area's " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro potential, ( i n terms of i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y ) . 1 4 Hydro, therefore, cannot be re-garded as providing a source of e l e c t r i c i t y i n d e f i n i t e l y . More-over, the value of several schemes has been questioned. I t i s feared, i n the case of the Razdan River project i n Armenia, that i f a seri e s of dams are b u i l t the l e v e l of Lake Sevan (important l o c a l l y f o r i r r i g a t i o n ) , w i l l be affected a d v e r s e l y . 1 5 Future hydro development i s l i k e l y to depend as much on the need f o r i r r i g a t i o n waters as on the demand for e l e c t r i c i t y . With t h i s overview of hydro potential i n mind, i t i s nec-essary now to consider actual development with the peripheral regions. THE CAUCASUS REGION With the recent interconnection of the Caucasian Republics, a power network extending from Baku to Tkvarcheli has been created, (Figure 13). 1 d Inter-republic transfer of e l e c t r i c i t y had taken place p r i o r to 1963, but the present network w i l l permit FIGURE 13 THE CAUCASUS REGION 150 greater bulk transfer than had previously been possible.1''' As there are no definite plans for an intertie with the North Caucasus (part of the South regional grid), the system currently 1 8 constitutes a distinct and functional region. x On the basis of calculations carried out in Appendix C, the installed capacity for the network has been estimated at just over 3 MKW for 1962, (Table XXIII), of which hydro is about 55 percent. This share, however, i s currently in a state of change. Azerbaydzhan SSR accounts for half of the capacity, and closer to 60 percent of generation, the difference being due to the higher average plant factor of the principally thermal generating capa-city in this Republic. During the past several years new capacity put into oper-ation has> been predominantly thermal. In Azerbaydzhan, the existence of o i l and gas deposits and a limited hydro potential would appear to give rise naturally to this situation, but i t i s also true for Armenia and Georgia, both of which lack a diversi-fied energy base and traditionally have been supplied by hydro-elect r i c i t y . Because of a long history of development, fewer propitious sites are available as was inferred above. Thus in Armenia for example, the share of hydro has declined from 90 per-cent of total generation in 1956 to 80-85 percent in 1964.1^ Only the construction of the Ingirsk station (1.7 MKW), w i l l im-pede temporarily hydro's diminishing share in Georgia. 2 0 New thermal plants have been fueled primarily by o i l or 151 TABLE XXIII ESTIMATES OF REGIONAL INSTALLED CAPACITY BY TYPE PERIPHERAL REGIONS 1962 a Hydro Capacity MKW. Thermal Capacity MKW Tot a l Installed Capacity MKW Caucasus 1.62 1.4 3.02 Central Asia 1.1 1.4 2.5 Northeast Kazakhstan .83 1.16 1.99 Far East .06 1.7 1.76 Murmansk .68 .05 .73 a. A l l figures have been derived from calculations i n Appendix C. 152 gas. In both instances, however, there are complications. Gas reserves are comparatively small and are currently being depleted, therefore expansion of gas f i r e d thermal capacity based on l o c a l deposits must be subject to some r e s t r i c t i o n . 2 1 Baku o i l , being of high value has warranted further explorations and production ( i . e . off-shore d r i l l i n g ) , but t h i s has led to higher c a p i t a l investment per ton produced and thus higher s e l l i n g p r i c e . 2 2 Pro-duction has not been s u f f i c i e n t to u t i l i z e f u l l y the e x i s t i n g r e f i n i n g capacity i n the Baku area, and o i l has been imported from the Volga zone. I t has been th i s o i l which has generally been used to f i r e thermal p l a n t s . 2 ^ As Table XXIV indicates, both l o c a l o i l and gas are comparatively expensive, therefore ex-t e r n a l f u e l sources must be a t t r a c t i v e . The quantities of o i l imported are not indicated, though i t can be s a i d that o i l i s of l e s s importance than gas. The majority of new large plants r e -cently completed or currently under construction are gas f i r e d . 2 4 This has been made possible by the construction of pipelines from Baku to T b i l i s i and to Yerevan. 2 5 Costs of e l e c t r i c i t y r e f l e c t to a large extent the main type of capacity. In Azerbaydzhan, where hydro accounted f o r only 15 percent of generation i n 1962,^6 there exists the highest cost of e l e c t r i c i t y , (approximately the national average). 2 7 In Georgia and Armenia, where hydro has predominated, costs are somewhat lower, i n 1956 . 6 kopeks per KWH i n the former, 1 . 4 1 kopeks per KWH i n the l a t t e r . 2 8 With the creation of the network, hydro as 153 TABLE XXIV COMPARATIVE COST OF SELECTED FUELS PER TON OF FUEL EQUIVALENT* Cost (rubles) Gas Az erbaydzhan 1 . 1 Stavropol . 9 Saratov 1 . 4 Komi 2 . 5 Krasnodar . 7 West Ukraine 1.-1 East Ukraine 1 .3 Uzbek . 5 O i l A z e rbayd zhan*5 5 . 5 Bashkir 1.8 Kuybyshev 1 .1 Orenburg 2 . 7 Coal Open-cast Ekibastuz 1 .6 Angren 4 . 4 Kuznetsk 2 . 2 I t a t 1 .0 Shaft Karaganda 4 . 6 Donetsk anthracite 6 . 0 L* vo v-Volyns k 7 . 3 a. Data from, L.A. Melent'yev, E.O. Shteyngauz, Ekonomika Energetiki. SSSR, (Economic Energy U.S.S.R.). Gosu-darstvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1 9 o 3 , p. 9 7 . b. Based on figure i n , Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Geografich- eskaya Problemy Razvitiya Krupnikh Ekonomicheskikh Rayonov 33SR, (Geographical Problems i n the Development of Large Economic Regions i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Mysl', Moskva, 1 9 6 4 , p. 2 7 0 . 154 peaking capacity i s scheduled to assume even a more important role than heretofore has been the case and i s expected to r e s u l t 29 i n additional savings. It has been suggested that by 1970 the Caucasus w i l l of nec-e s s i t y have to look to external sources i n order to meet the 30 demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y . Several schemes have been put forward i n d i c a t i n g how the expected future d e f i c i t of e l e c t r i c i t y may be avoided. An EHV i n t e r t i e with the North Caucasus has already been mentioned, but there e x i s t s also the p o s s i b i l i t y of import-ing gas from either the Grozny or Krasnodar deposits. Construc-t i o n of an underwater EHV transmission l i n e between Baku and Krasnovodsk (i n turn l i n k i n g up with the Central Asian grid) i s being promulgated as a more economical means of overcoming the Caucasus' expected f u e l and power shortage than importing natural 31 gas. The p l a u s i b i l i t y of t h i s i s c l e a r l y subject to question. THE CENTRAL ASIAN REGION There exists currently the skeleton of a ramified g r i d system i n Central Asia with the nucleus centered on the Tashkent-32 Fergana Valley area, (Figure 14). The retarded development of the region's e l e c t r i c i t y industry has only been recently o f f s e t and i n large part as a consequence of the e x p l o i t a t i o n of the 33 Bukhara gas deposit. Previously there had not existed an i n -expensive l o c a l f u e l , the demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y being satiated primarily by hydro. As l a t e as 1958 f o r example, hydro accounted FIGURE 14 THE CENTRAL ASIAN REGION f o r 63 percent of t o t a l e l e c t r i c power generated i n the Uzbek SSR, where other energy sources e x i s t . Gas i s to reduce t h i s percentage to 22 by 1965, increasing i t s e l f from 1 . 1 i n 1958 to 4 2 . 6 i n 1 9 6 5 . ^ ^ As a r e s u l t natural gas has tended to spur transmission l i n e as well as pipeline construction. Only within the past h a l f dozen years has Central Asia emerged as a pot e n t i a l surplus power region. The calculated regional capacity had reached only 2 . 5 MKW i n 1 9 6 2 , about 45 percent of t h i s being hydro (Table XXIII), an absolute decline from e a r l i e r years. While i t can be expected that t h i s trend w i l l continue f o r the whole region, the decline w i l l be gradual i n view of the hydro capacity under construction at present, (approximately 3«5 MKW). ? E l e c t r i c i t y consumption i n Central Asia i s expected to reach 60 BKWH by 1 9 7 0 , f i v e times that of 1 9 6 2 . 3 6 Such a demand w i l l require 1 0 - 1 2 MKW of capacity (depending on the share of hydro), which i s i n no way an u n r e a l i s t i c objective. A 1 . 2 MKW gas f i r e d plant under construction near Tashkent, designed to f a c i l i t a t e i n d u s t r i a l expansion, i s at present the region's 37 l a r g e s t . The 24 b i l l i o n cubic meters of natural gas earmarked f o r consumption i n Central Asia i n 1970 would be adequate to meet the demand of thermal p l a n t s . ? Coal i s also scheduled f o r an increased share of the e l e c t r i c i t y generated, the demand to be 39 met through increased production within the region. However, i t i s comparatively expensive, as the cost of coal at Angren 157 reveals (Table XXIV), and emphasis w i l l l i k e l y remain on natural gas. Hydro, while overshadowed, has continued to play a highly functional r o l e . In 1962, 80 percent of the e x i s t i n g system's annua! peak load demand was met by hydro c a p a c i t y . ^ Stations constructed are l a r g e l y multi-purpose, i r r i g a t i o n and stream regulation being important benefits. The Nurek plant on the Vaksh River, 2.5 MKW, and the Toktogul on the Naryn River .5 MKW, comprise the largest share of the 3.5 MKW under construction, (Figure 14). While these plants are s i g n i f i c a n t l o c a l l y f o r i r r i g a t i o n and power, both w i l l provide a d d i t i o n a l peaking capa-c i t y f o r the system.^" In the past, e l e c t r i c i t y costs i n Central Asia have been above .8 kopeks per KWH. Costs at hydro plants currently under construction are expected to1 be between .1-.2 kopeks per KWH, depending on plant factor and i n s t a l l e d capacity. With the i n -creasing emphasis on gas f i r e d thermal stations of 1-1.5 MKW capacity, where costs average .2-.3 kopeks per KWH, the mean cost of e l e c t r i c i t y f o r the region should decline. THE NORTHEAST KAZAKHSTAN REGION Presently i n an embryonic stage, t h i s system consists of only two l i n e s emanating from the Ust-Kamenogorsk area (Figure 15), consequently planned interconnections have had to be used as a basis f o r regional d e l i m i t a t i o n . Completion of the Yermak 5 0 0 KV Line 2 2 0 - 3 3 0 KV Line Line under construction Major Coal deposits FAR EAST FIGURE 15 PERIPHERAL REGIONS thermal plant, 2 . 4 MKW, w i l l necessitate construction of a 500 KV l i n e from t h i s s i t e to Akmolinsk, thus l i n k i n g the Ust-Kamenogorsk and Semipalatinsk systems with that of Karaganda, (Figure 1 5 ) . 4 5 The regional i n s t a l l e d capacity i n 1962 was calculated at 1 . 9 9 MKW, of which . 8 3 MKW. was hydro, (Table XXIII). Since t h i s time, the r e l a t i v e share of hydro and thermal capacity has a l -tered somewhat. The trend has been toward large scale thermal plants, a conscious attempt to move away from the predominance of very small generating u n i t s . As l a t e as 1955, f o r example, v i r t u a l l y a l l e l e c t r i c i t y i n the Kazakh SSR was generated by plants of l e s s than . 1 MKW.4-6 An increasing i n d u s t r i a l demand has necessitated greater emphasis being placed on larger gener-ating u n i t s , and presently 75 percent of the power i s generated by stations having more than . 1 MKW. In l i n e with the trend toward large scale units i s the r e c e n t l y announced plan for construction over the next decade of a complex of thermal power plants, each with a capacity of 3 . 8 MKW.47 Like most thermal plants i n t h i s region they are to be f i r e d by the inexpensive Ekibastuz coal, (Table XXIV). Although i n i t i a t i o n of the project i s not scheduled u n t i l 1 9 6 6 , i t i s si g n i f i c a n t that an i n t e r t i e with European Russia i s an i n t e g r a l part of the development.4 5 This tends to support e a r l i e r s t a t e -ments regarding the function of th i s region as being a bridge i n the l i n k i n g of the Central Siberian and U r a l Power Networks.^ 160 Hydro, h i s t o r i c a l l y , has played an important r o l e i n the development of the region's e l e c t r i c power industry, p a r t i c u l a r l y on the upper Irtysh River, (Figure 15). Currently about one-quarter of the "te c h n i c a l l y exploitable" p o t e n t i a l i s now being u t i l i z e d . 5 0 Only one hydro plant i s a c t u a l l y scheduled f o r con-struction, Shulba on the I r t y s h , although thus f a r there has been no d e f i n i t e information regarding commencement of construction at thi s s i t e , (Figure 1 5 ) . 5 1 The existing hydro capacity, concen-trated i n the upper Irtysh, does not play any s p e c i f i c r o l e i n meeting the energy requirements i n th i s area. I t i s at present the p r i n c i p a l source of e l e c t r i c i t y . With completion of the power network t h i s situation may a l t e r . Because of the p r o l i f e r a t i o n of small s t a t i o n s , e l e c t r i -c i t y costs have been high. As l a t e as 1959 they were somewhat Q above the national average of .8 kopeks per KWH.52 I t i s e s t i -mated that current costs are at l e a s t equal to the national average. With the planned expansion of large scale capacity a decreasing regional mean should ensue. THE FAR EAST REGION As inferred at the outset, the Far East has witnessed very l i t t l e development i n the e l e c t r i c i t y industry. 5^ Generating plants tend to be of small capacity (seldom more than .5 MKW), and coal f i r e d . The development of a power network has s i m i l a r l y been retarded and as l a t e as 1963 there was but a single 220 KV 161 line.54 Therefore the region dealt with here has once again been delimited on the basis of proposed interconnections, (Figure 15). As Table XXIII indicates, hydro comprised a miniscule share of the calculated 1.76 MKW regional capacity as of 1962. There were less than a dozen stations making up hydro's share, these being located f o r the most part on state farms and k o l k h o l z e s . 5 5 C l e a r l y these were of small capacity. While there have been several tentative plans put forward f o r the u t i l i z a t i o n of the considerable hydro p o t e n t i a l within the region, only one plant i s currently under construction. With the completion of t h i s station on the Zeya River, .9 MKW, the planned interconnection with the i n d u s t r i a l centers to the east should come to f r u i t i o n , (Figure 15). 5 6 Alarm has been expressed at the high cost of e l e c t r i c i t y i n the Far East. In 1956 i t was ten times the national average, or approximately 90 kopeks per KWH.5''' This was due to the large number of small scale plants, the lack of interconnection, and especially the low degree of u t i l i z a t i o n (only a 30 percent aver-age plant factor i n 1959). 5 8 Construction of the Zeya hydro station and recent plans f o r thermal plant construction on the Raychikhinskoye coal deposit (Figure 15), represent an attempt to improve the situation,5 9 D U t t n e r e g i o n i s l i k e l y to remain one of comparative underdevelopment and high cost of e l e c t r i c i t y . THE MURMANSK REGION 162 The e l e c t r i c power industry i n this region has from the out-set been associated almost e n t i r e l y with hydroelectric development. Although the potential of the region i s comparatively small, the demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y coupled with propitious physical conditions for dam construction and the absence of an alternative source of inexpensive power have resulted i n an almost continuous program of harnessing hydro p o t e n t i a l during the past 20 years. While by no means a widely ramified network, the existing capacity i s in t e r -connected by a 220 KV l i n e (Figure 15). On the basis of calculations i n Appendix C, summarized i n Table XXIII, aggregate capacity i n 1962 was .73 MKW, over 90 per-cent of which was hydro. As Figure 15 indicates, there are close to a dozen hydro stations, however, the largest, Nivskaya, has only a capacity of .15 MKW.60 Cost of e l e c t r i c i t y has averaged about .4 kopeks per KWH, approximately hal f the n a t i o n a l average. 0 1 This i s because of the predominance of hydro, and as stressed i n t h i s study, r e f l e c t s i n part the method by which prime cost of h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y i s determined. As current expansion i n the e l e c t r i c i t y industry centers around construction of additional hydro capacity, a s i m i -l a r cost structure i s l i k e l y to continue. THE MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY Since the t o t a l capacity of the peripheral regions i s but 163 10 MKW, only a general outline of the demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i s warranted. In the peripheral regions there exists a higher degree of in d u s t r i a l demand for e l e c t r i c i t y than has previously been the case. Industry requires at l e a s t 60 percent of regional i n s t a l l e d capacity, from an estimated 53 percent i n the Caucasus to 63 per-62 cent i n Northeast Kazakhstan. 0 The production of aluminum con-sti t u t e s one of the largest requirements i n the Caucasus and Murmansk regions and with the completion of the plant i n Pavlodar i t w i l l be a major consumer i n Northeast Kazakhstan as well.°3 In the l a t t e r region, demand has been characterized by the pro-cessing of base metals, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the upper I r t y s h , (Ust-Kamenogorsk). I n d u s t r i a l demand i n the Far East i s not con-centrated i n any one industry, a r e f l e c t i o n i n part of the region's comparative underdevelopment. It i s possible to obtain some measure of domestic use of e l e c t r i c i t y i f one assumes that 10 percent of t o t a l generation i s al l o t t e d to t h i s sector i n a l l regions.°4 Thus, f o r an approx-imate population of 15 m i l l i o n , Central Asia has available about 1.3 BKWH, whereas the Caucasus, with 10 m i l l i o n inhabitants, has 1.5 BKWH a l l o t t e d to consumer demand. o 5 In order to appreciate the r e l a t i v e difference between representatives of the peripheral regions, and an area where i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i s very much i n pro-gress, a comparison can p r o f i t a b l y be made with Central S i b e r i a . In this region, 3 BKWH are cur r e n t l y being consumed per annum by 164 the 10 m i l l i o n population. ° 6 This c l e a r l y indicates a f a r higher degree of consumer consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y than i s character-i s t i c of the peripheral regions. It i s only i n the Caucasus that the sector, e l e c t r i c r a i l -way and associated uses, has to be taken into account. However, i t s requirements are comparatively small (consumption amounted to 4 percent of t o t a l generation i n 1 9 5 9 ) . ° ' ' ' Line loss and station consumption vary l i t t l e from region to region, consuming about 10 percent of e l e c t r i c i t y generated, but requiring a s l i g h t l y larger percent of regional i n s t a l l e d capacity. SUMMARY In the peripheral regions there e x i s t s considerable hydro potential, even i n the "economically a c c e s s i b l e " category. How-ever, much of t h i s i s l i k e l y to remain undeveloped, e s p e c i a l l y i n the Far East where the p o s s i b i l i t y of a large market emerging i s s l i g h t . In regions where hydro constitutes a r e l a t i v e l y large share of regional capacity, but does not predominate, ( i . e . Caucasus and Central Asia), i t has assumed the role of meeting peak demand. This role i s l i k e l y to expand with the construction of additional hydro capacity and the gradual emergence of power systems. In two of the peripheral regions gas has made s t r i k i n g i n -roads as a f u e l for thermal plants. In the Caucasus l i m i t e d reserves w i l l of necessity force the region to look to external 165 sources i f expansion of gas f i r e d thermal stations i s to con-tinue. This i s not a problem i n Central Asia where gas reserves are s u f f i c i e n t to meet the demands of thermal stations for at l e a s t the next two or three decades. The recent ex-p l o i t a t i o n of the gas reserves has c e r t a i n l y provided a stimulus f o r the expansion i n the e l e c t r i c i t y industry. Only Central Asia and possibly Northeast Kazakhstan stand out as being p o t e n t i a l regions of surplus e l e c t r i c power. The l a t t e r region i s scheduled to act as a bridge i n the o f t -discussed Central Siberian-Urals i n t e r t i e , supplying i n addition e l e c t r i c i t y to the i n d u s t r i a l area around Voronezh. Whether Central Asia w i l l a c t u a l l y export e l e c t r i c i t y per se, as has been suggested, remains a moot point. That i t w i l l continue to export energy i n the form of natural gas, which can be converted to e l e c t r i c i t y at market, i s ce r t a i n . I t i s the consensus here, that the Murmansk and Far East regions w i l l remain of minor importance i n the Soviet e l e c t r i c i t y industry. 166 REFERENCES: CHAPTER VI 1. F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki SSSR, (Development of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), I z d a t e l ' -stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 59; see also Table XXII. 2. I b i d . , p. 61. 3. This figure i s an estimate based on the map of pro-spective dam sites i n S.F. Shershov, Bely Ugol, (White Coal), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1957, p. 83; and data i n F. Ya. Nesteruk, op. c i t . , p. 61. J+. This discussion can be found i n Chapter IV. 5. This w i l l become evident i n the following discussion of the Far East region. For a b r i e f outline of the theoreti c a l p o t e n t i a l see, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika: Razvitiye  Proizvoditel'nykh S i l Vostochnoy S i b i r i , (Energy, The Development of Productive Strength of Eastern S i b e r i a ) , Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I960, pp. 255-9. 6. S.F. Shershov, op. c i t . , pp. 82-2. 7. In t h i s discussion of hydro p o t e n t i a l the following Republics are included: Kazakh, K i r g i z , Tadzhik, Uzbek and Turkmen. Data on in d i v i d u a l Republic's " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro potential from, F. Ya. Nesteruk, op_. c i t . , p. 59. 8. F. Ya. Nesteruk, op_. c i t . , p. 61. 9. S.F. Shershov, l o c . c i t . 10. The p a r t i c u l a r stations making up this f i g u r e are dis-cussed shortly. 11. As pointed out i n Chapter V, the discussion of hydro potential i n the Caucasus l o g i c a l l y includes the potential of the North Caucasus economic region, (see Table XXII), although the l a t t e r area i s not part of the Caucasus region. 12. Location of sites from, S.F. Shershov, l o c . c i t . 13. This f i g u r e applies only to the three Caucasian Republics, but since developed hydro i n the North Caucasus economic region, (which constitutes a t h i r d of the "te c h n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro potential under discussion here), i s only a 167 f i f t h of t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity (.3 MKW), the point being made here i s not negated. That i s , when i n s t a l l e d capacity i s used as the c r i t e r i o n f o r u t i l i z a t i o n of hydro p o t e n t i a l , such figures are very much an underestimation. Figure from, N. Ya. Koval'skaya, _et a l . , Ekonomicheskaya Geograf i y a SSSR: Volgo- Donskoy Rayon, Severny Kavkaz, Zakzvkaz'ye^ (The Economic Geography of the U.S.S.R.: The Volga-Don Region, North Caucasus, TransCaucasus), Geografichesky Fakul'tet, Moskovsky Gosudarstvenny Un i v e r s i t e t im. M.V., Lomonosova, Moskva, 1959, p. 141 • For data on r e l a t i v e shares of i n s t a l l e d capacity i n the North Caucasus see, Referativny Zhurnal: Elektrotekhnika i Energetika #E, Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , S e t i i Sistemi, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, May 1964, (5 E169), p. 26. 14. Less than .5 MKW of t h i s capacity i s located i n the North Caucasus economic region. 15. See, L. M i k i r t i l c h i a n , Lake Sevan Development Projects i n Soviet Armenia, Studies on the Soviet Union, V o l . 1, No. 3, I n s t i t u t e f o r the Study of the U.S.S.R., Munich, 1962, p. 98. 16. The Caucasus region includes the Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaydzhan Republics. Data on interconnection from, E l e k t r i -cheskiye S t a n t s i i , November 1963, p. 4. 17. Capacity of the l i n e would l i m i t exchanges to less than . 5 BKWH annually; see calculation i n Chapter IV, Footnote #30. 18. No interconnection indicated on map E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a  SSSR, (1:8,000,000), Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1963. 19. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo Armyanskoi SSR v 1956 Godu, Gosstatizdat, Yerevan, 1957, p. 30. 20. For data on t h i s s t a t i o n see F. Ya. Nesteruk, op. c i t . , p. 236. 21. Reserves, according to Hodgkins, were 1.5 x 1012 cubic meters i n Azerbaydzhan. This f i g u r e was based on data drawn from 1957 sources and with the recent increase i n proven reserves i n Central Asia p a r t i c u l a r l y , i t s r e l a t i v e national share has decreased considerably. J.A. Hodgkins, Soviet Power; Energy  Resources, Production, and Potential, Prentice-Hall, Englewood C l i f f s , . N.J., 1961, p. 139. 22. S e l l i n g price of Baku o i l i s about f i v e times that i n the Kuybyshev area or about 6 rubles per ton (in terms of f u e l 168 equivalent), Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Geograficheskaya Problemy  Razvitiya Krupnikh Ekonomicheskikh Rayonov SSSR, (Geographical Problems i n the Development of Large Economic Regions i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Mysl', Moskva, 1964, p. 270, and L.A. Melent'yev, E.O. Shteyngauz, Ekonomika Ener g e t i k i SSSR, (Economic Energy U.S.S.R.), Gosudarstvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , p. 9 7 . 2 3 . Akademiya Nauk SSSR, op., c i t . , p. 2 7 2 , the o i l generally has a high sulfur content. 2 4 . See discussion i n N. l a . Koval'skaya, op_. c i t . , p. 138. 2 5 . The l i n e i s currently under construction between T b i l i s i and Batumi, Izvestiya, March 1 5 , 1965, p. 4 . 26. Gidrotekhnicheskoye S t r o i t e l ' s t v o , November 1 9 6 3 , p. 4. 2 7 . See N. Ya. Koval'skaya, op_. c i t . . p. 137 . 2 8 . Ibid. 2 9 . Mingechaur f o r example, i s used extensively f o r peaking purposes. 30. For discussion see, Central Asia i n Seven Years, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo Vo Sredney Aziya, Tashkent, May I 9 6 4 , (pp. 1 3 - 8 ) , The Soviet Economic System. (275S8), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, October 1 9 6 4 , Reel #34, p. o. 3 1 . Ibid. 3 2 . This region includes most of the following administra-tive u n i t s : i n the Uzbek SSR; Kashka-Dar * ya, Surkham-Day' ya, Namangan, Fergana, Andizhan, Samarkamd Oblasts, and the southern part of the Bukhara Oblast. The Stalinabad, Garm, Leninabad, and Kulyab Oblasts are included i n the Tadzhik Republic. In the Ki r g i z Republic, the Talas, Dzhalal-Abad and Frunze Oblasts are included. Only the southern part of the South Kazakh, Dzhambul and Alma-Ata Oblasts of the Kazakh Republic are part of the region. At present the grid does not extend into the Turkmen Republic. 3 3 . Only 4 BKWH were produced by this region i n 1952. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye S t a t i s t i -cheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , p. 1 6 1 . ' 34* Figures from, M.P. Munko, Gazovaya Promyshlennost' 169 Uzbek SSR, (Gas Industry of the Uzbek SSR), Gosizdat Uzbek SSR, Tashkent, 1963, p. 126. 3 5 . The Nurek plant, 2 .5 MKW, represents the largest share of the capacity currently under construction. 3 6 . Central Asia i n Seven Years, l o c . c i t . 3 7 . Capacity of the Tashkent plant was .3 MKW as of September 1 9 6 4 , Pravda, September 21, 1 9 6 4 , p. 2. 38. Central Asia i n Seven Years, l o c . c i t . 3 9 . N.P. Munko, loc. c i t . 40. Data from Referativny Zhurnal:: Elektrotekhnika i  Energetika #E, Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , S e t i i Sistemi. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, May 1964, (5 E168), p. 26. 4 1 . The l i n e to the Toktogul station i s currently under construction. 4 2 . L.A. Melent'yev, E.O. Shteyngauz, Ekonomika Energetiki  SSSR, (Economic Energy U.S.S.R.), Gosudarstvennoye Energeti-cheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1959, p. 132. 4 3 . N.P. Munko, op_. c i t . , 1 2 3 . 4 4 . The grid includes the following Oblasts: Kustanay, North Kazakh, Karaganda, Akmolinsk, Kokchetav, Pavlodar, Semipalatinsk, and East Kazakh. Only one interconnected station l i e s outside the Kazakh Republic, Rubtsovsk. 45• Capacity of the Yermak plant was scheduled to be . 3 MKW at the end of 1 9 6 3 . Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i , l o c . c i t . 4 6 . N.S. Kalachev, et_ a l . , Energetika Kazakhstana, (Energy i n Kazakhstan), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk Kazakhskoi SSR, Alma-Ata, 1958, p. 20. 47. For a discussion of t h i s new plan see, Theodore Shabad, Soviet to B u i l d a Power Center i n Asia f o r I t s Needs i n Europe, New York Times, June 2 4 , 1965, p. 8 . 4 8 . I b i d . 4 9 . See, G. Krzhizhanovsky, V. Veits, A Single Power Grid  f o r the U.S.S.R., Foreign Languages Publishing House, Moscow, 1 9 5 7 , p. 3 9 . 170 50. F. l a . Nesteruk, op_. c i t . , p. 60. 5 1 . One, s l i g h t l y outdated source, indicates that construc-t i o n has started, J o i n t Hearings before the Committee on I n t e r i o r and Insular A f f a i r s and the Committee on Public Works, United States Senate, E i g h t y - F i f t h Congress Second Session, Water  Resource Programs of the United States, Russia and (Red) China, United States Government Printing O f f i c e , Washington, D.C, 1 9 5 3 , p. 2 0 5 . 5 2 . L.A. Melent'yev, l o c . c i t . 5 3 . Only the southern part of the Far East economic region i s included i n the region as delimited here. 5 4 . No information regarding completion of the planned transmission l i n e s has been uncovered. 5 5 . E r i c h Thiel, The Soviet Far East, (translation by, Annelie and Ralph M. Rookwood), Methuen, 1 9 5 7 , p. 2 0 5 . 5 6 . Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, February 1 , 1 9 6 4 , p. 1 6 . 57 . Data from, Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika: Razvitiye Proizvoditel'nykh S i l Vostochnoy S i b i r i , op_. c i t . . p. 2 5 5 . 5 8 . Ibid. 5 9 . Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta, l o c . c i t . 6 0 . J o i n t Hearings . . ., op_. c i t . , p. 2 0 6 . 6 1 . L.A. Melent'yev, loc. c i t . 6 2 . Data from N.S. Kalachev, op. c i t . , p. 1 4 3 ; and N. Ya. Koval'skaya, op. c i t . . p. 1 3 3 . 6 3 . Central Asia i n Seven Years, l o c . c i t . 6 4 . While t h i s may be something of an underestimate, the actual f i g u r e being used does not negate the point being made here. 6 5 . Data from Appendiz C and Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, op_. c i t . , pp. 2 0 , 2 4 . 6 6 . I b i d . 6 7 . N. Ya. Koval'skaya, l o c . c i t . 171 REFERENCES: FIGURES Figure 13. Data drawn from, N.Ya. Koval'skaya, et a l . . Ekonomicheskaya Geografiya SSSR: Vblgo-Donskoy Rayon, S"everny  Kavkaz. Zakavkaz'ye. (The Economic Geography of the U.S.S.R.: The Volga-Don Region, North Caucasus, Transcaucasus), Geografichesky Fakul'tet, Moskovsky Gosudarstvenny Universitet im. M.V. Lomonosova, Moskva, 1959, pp. 139-141; Atlas SSSR. Dlya Sredney Shkoly. Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Moskva. 1961; E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR. (1:8,000,000), Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1963; J.A. Hodgkins, Soviet Power. Energy Resources, Production and P o t e n t i a l . Prentice-Hall, Englewood C l i f f s , N.J., 1961, p. 8. Figure 14. Based on data i n , Central Asia i n Seven Years, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo Vo Sredney Aziya. (unsigned), Tashkent, May 1964, pp. 13-18, The Soviet Economic System, (275*38), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, October 1964, Reel #34, pp. 6-10; Izvestiya. August 26, 1964, p. 1, March 15, 1965, p. 4; E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR. . ., l o c . c i t . ; J.A. Hodgkins, l o c . c i t . Figure 15. Based on data i n , Pravda. November 20, 1963, p. 1; Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta. February 1, 1964, p. 16; New  York Times. June 24. 1965. P. 8; E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR. . ., l o c . c i t . ; J.A. Hodgkins, l o c . c i t . CHAPTER VII CONCLUSIONS In concluding t h i s study i t i s necessary to survey and evaluate those fac t o r s which have conditioned, and i n some i n -stances fostered, the s p a t i a l pattern and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Soviet e l e c t r i c i t y generation, consumption and t r a n s f e r . The prospect f o r further hydro development i n Central S i b e r i a , where the f u n c t i o n of large scale plants i s d i f f e r e n t from that t y p i c a l of the Soviet Union, i s considered at some length. To f a c i l i t a t e the discussion several s p e c i f i c comparisons w i l l be made with developments i n North America. CHARACTERISTICS AND SPATIAL PATTERN The s p a t i a l pattern of the Soviet e l e c t r i c i t y industry c l e a r l y bears the stamp of past governmental p o l i c i e s . Recent government promotion of hydro development i n Central S i b e r i a has been responsible f o r the s h i f t eastward of the center of gravity of hydro capacity, a s h i f t f a r more rapid than i s the case for generating capacity as a whole. The e l e c t r i c i t y industry has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been one of high p r i o r i t y and currently i s expanding at a rate of 10-12 MKW. per annum. Yet t h i s rate of growth i s inadequate as power d e f i c i t s e x i s t i n many regions of the U.S.S.R. The s i t u a t i o n i s e s p e c i a l l y serious i n European Russia, (even though possessing over one-half 173 of t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity), the Center-Volga and Ural regions being the most acutely a f f e c t e d . Consequently European Russia has had to look to external sources to meet her energy requirements. Insofar as the generation of e l e c t r i c i t y i s concerned, there has been a t r a d i t i o n a l emphasis placed on the u t i l i z a t i o n of l o c a l low c a l o r i f i c f u e l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y l i g n i t e , peat and shale, which do not constitute important raw materials i n industry. While coal s t i l l meets the largest share of the f u e l requirements of thermal power st a t i o n s , the recent use of gas as f u e l i s notable. I t s impact has been most e f f e c t i v e i n areas where l o c a l f u e l costs are high, e i t h e r because of s c a r c i t y or poor quality ( i . e . , i n the Ural region). Since n a t u r a l gas i s an important indus-t r i a l raw material i t i s not to be expected that the demand of industry w i l l be disregarded i n favour of the f u e l needs of thermal stations, which generally speaking cannot be considered an optimum u t i l i z a t i o n . A. ra t i o n a l use of natural gas as a fu e l i s exemplified i n the Moscow area where i t i s burned f o r the most part during the summer months when i n d u s t r i a l and domestic demands have slackened, thus replacing comparatively expensive l o c a l fuels. For gas p a r t i c u l a r l y , and to a lesser extent o i l , these alterna-t i v e uses are made possible by the network of pipelines now focussed on European Russia. The supply of e l e c t r i c i t y i n European Russia i s scheduled to be stablized through an interchange of e l e c t r i c power among the regions v i a widely ramified EHV i n t e r t i e s . In t h i s context 174 the proposed i n t e r t i e between the Central Siberian and Ural g r i d i s one of the most controversial topics of the Soviet electricity-industry. There are several questions regarding the proposed i n t e r -t i e . F i r s t of a l l , i s i t t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e ; secondly, i s i t economic; and f i n a l l y , what impact would i t have on the consump-tio n of e l e c t r i c i t y i n European Russia and e s p e c i a l l y the Urals? That the Soviets could t e c h n i c a l l y carry out the construction and operation of an EHV DC l i n e i s an assumed conclusion i n view of recent successes i n t h i s f i e l d . The economic aspect of t h i s proposal i s complex. E l e c t r i -c i t y i s generally regarded as being one of several competitive forms of energy. Coal and recently natural gas have been im-ported into European Russia from the. eastern regions and both have been used to generate e l e c t r i c i t y . Consequently, the cost of importing e l e c t r i c i t y i s frequently compared with the cost of importing f u e l which subsequently may be converted into e l e c t r i -c i t y . In cost comparisons, i n terras of f u e l equivalents, the transmission of e l e c t r i c power i s invariably the most expensive manner of transporting energy. 1 Yet the i n t e r t i e i s s t i l l being promoted—why? F i r s t of a l l , e l e c t r i c i t y i s a finished product. When fuels are converted i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y a l o s s ensues, the ex-tent of which i s determined by the e f f i c i e n c y of conversion. Preliminary f i g u r e s quoted i n Chapter IV i n d i c a t e that the d e l i v e r e d cost of e l e c t r i c i t y i n the Urals could be economically 175 competitive. This assumed the existence of a ready market and one possessing a high load factor as w e l l . There i s such a market i n the Urals. On the basis of a v a i l a b l e data, i t has been estimated here that a 1 5 - 2 0 BKWH annual surplus of power could exist i n Central S i b e r i a by 1 9 7 0 . 2 This surplus may be the c r i t i c a l f a c t o r i n determining whether or not the i n t e r t i e w i l l be con-structed. An EHV DC l i n e to the Urals would c e r t a i n l y comple-ment r e c e n t l y announced plans f o r construction of a complex of thermal power stations centered on the Ekibastuz coal deposit and EHV i n t e r t i e with European Russia.^ Insofar as the possible effect of imported Siberian power on the consumption of e l e c t r i -c i t y i n European Russia i s concerned, i t should be pointed out that i n 1962 almost 70 BKWH were consumed i n the Ural region alone.4 Subsequent construction of new capacity has not been able to keep abreast of demand and i t i s reasonable that t h i s p o t e n t i a l Siberian surplus block might w e l l be consumed within the Ural region alone i n 1 9 7 0 . Even so, i t would comprise no more than 1 0 - 1 5 percent of annual e l e c t r i c i t y consumption i n t h i s region, i f i n fact the presumed surplus of power i s as high as has been estimated. Therefore, the t o t a l impact on European Russia at th i s date would be of only minor proportion. On the basis of calculations i n Appendix C the Center-Volga region had the,largest estimated i n s t a l l e d capacity during 1962 ( 1 6 . 3 MKW) with the South (14 MKW) and the Urals ( 1 1 . 7 MKW) 176 following. This i s not unexpected as these regions have long been the p r i n c i p a l centers of industry. Central Siberia ranked fourth i n terms of t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity (an estimated 8.5 MKW), but by 1964 i n absolute terms i t had the l a r g e s t share of hydro, about a t h i r d of national capacity, i n c l u d i n g capacity under construction. Because none of the larger scale hydro or thermal plants i s operating at f u l l capacity, t h i s i s not yet a region of low cost e l e c t r i c power as i s often assumed. Following Central S i b e r i a was the Northwest region (6 MKW as of 1962), a region which has experienced only limited development. Of the peripheral regions which i n aggregate had a capa-c i t y , of only 10 MKW, 12 percent of t o t a l i n 1962, Central Asia stands out as having the greatest p o t e n t i a l for future expan-sion. This i s due to the recent e x p l o i t a t i o n of natural gas reserves. In terms of i n s t a l l e d capacity (2.5 MKW) i t ranked behind the Caucasus region (3 MKW), where possible future expan-sion of generating capacity based on l o c a l energy resources i s l i m i t e d . . At present 4 0 percent of hydro p o t e n t i a l i s being u t i l i z e d and with l i m i t e d reserves of coal, natural gas and the high cost of l o c a l o i l , additional thermal capacity w i l l have to depend l a r g e l y on external fuels. Of minor importance are the three remaining regions, Northeast Kazakhstan, the Far East and Murmansk, each with less than 2 MKW generating capacity. Only the Northeast Kazakhstan g r i d i s scheduled to play a r o l e i n the u n i f i c a t i o n of the European and Eastern Power Networks. There are s i g n i f i c a n t regional v a r i a t i o n s i n the r e l a t i v e importance of hydro capacity, from less than 1 percent i n the Far East to over 9 5 percent i n the Murmansk region. In regions where hydro i s of some importance but does not predominate, i t has assumed a s p e c i f i c function, that of meeting peak load demand. Assigning a s p e c i f i c role to hydro capacity i s doubt-less f a c i l i t a t e d by the centralized c o n t r o l of the Soviet e l e c -t r i c i t y industry. I t was pointed out that during the past t h i r t y years more concern has been evidenced i n the Soviet Union over meeting peak demand economically, than has been character-i s t i c i n North America. Continued emphasis has been placed on the interconnection of power systems and where load centers are proximate, hydro stations on occasion have been i n t e n t i o n a l l y "over-machined," a practice i n which interest has only recently been shown i n North America. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g to note however, that several new hydro plants planned f o r the U.S. P a c i f i c Northwest w i l l be designed f o r peaking purposes denoting, i f not an adoption of Soviet p o l i c y , at least recognition of i t s value.-Figure 16 summarizes the regional v a r i a t i o n s i n hydro and thermal c a p a c i t i e s , as well as i n d i c a t i n g the r e l a t i v e regional shares of t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity. Generating capacity not accounted for i n t h i s study, about 1 5 percent, i s located f o r the most part i n urban centers, which have not been included i n the regional system used here. Consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y has been calcul a t e d both by FIGURE 16 COMPARATIVE REGIONAL INSTALLED CAPACITY 1962 sector of the economy and industry, and the p r i n c i p a l consumer has been shown to vary from region to region. The Center-Volga, with the largest i n s t a l l e d generating capacity, pos-sesses as w e l l the greatest concentration of urban population and thus the domestic sector requires a r e l a t i v e l y larger share of i n s t a l l e d capacity than i n any other region. In neither European Russia nor Central S i b e r i a does a power intensive i n -dustry require the l a r g e s t share of r e g i o n a l capacity. The sectors, a g r i c u l t u r a l economy and e l e c t r i c railway and associated uses, both rank higher than aluminum production, the p r i n c i p a l i n d u s t r i a l consumer i n Central S i b e r i a . I f current plans are brought to f r u i t i o n , by 1 9 7 0 aluminum production i n Central S i b e r i a w i l l rank f i r s t . In European Russia the aluminum i n -dustry ranks fourth a f t e r i r o n and s t e e l production, the domes-t i c , and e l e c t r i c railway sectors. While not a consumer i n the context used above, l i n e l o s s and station consumption i s nevertheless s i g n i f i c a n t . In Central S i b e r i a and European Russia, the KW capacity required to meet t h i s demand was such as to make i t the second and fourth largest consumer r e s p e c t i v e l y . Because of the low load f a c t o r , further e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n of railways w i l l ensure the continuance of t h i s sector as another generally unrecognized but major consumer of e l e c t r i c i t y . In comparison with North America, the basic difference i n the consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y l i e s i n the r e l a t i v e unimportance 180 of the domestic sector. In 1961 t h i s sector required only 17 percent of t o t a l Soviet i n s t a l l e d capacity, but over 55 percent i n the U.S. 0 While the Soviet domestic sector i s gradually i n -creasing i t s r e l a t i v e share i t i s not reasonable to expect that i t w i l l i n the near future reach the same percentage as i n the United States. The difference i n s o c i a l structure precludes the spread i n required KW capacity from being used as a direct measure of consumer well-being. Insofar as the cost of e l e c t r i c i t y i s concerned t h i s study has dealt p r i m a r i l y with hydro power. I t has been emphasized that the manner i n which prime cost of h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y i s derived tends to underestimate actual cost and thus precludes the p o s s i b i l i t y of any meaningful comparison with North American figu r e s . HYDRO—POTENTIAL AND PROSPECTS The considerable hydro potential of the Soviet Union east of the Urals has long been recognized and publicized, but the now near complete u t i l i z a t i o n of the hydro resources of European Russia has foeussed attention on the p o s s i b i l i t y of harnessing t h i s p o t e n t i a l . I t i s important therefore to give detailed con-sideration to- i t s actual scope. As a resu l t i t was found that the inherent l i m i t a t i o n s of the concepts which have been used to measure Soviet hydro potential have resulted i n figures which are not meaningful. An attempt has been made to provide here a l a i more suitable frame of reference within which to assess hydro resources. Thus estimates of "economically a c c e s s i b l e " hydro p o t e n t i a l have been offered. In aggregate t h i s f i g u r e i s 40 percent lower than the oft-used Soviet estimate f o r t o t a l " t e c h n i c a l l y exploitable" potential—1 1 0 MKW as compared to 196 MKW.7 Including capacity c u r r e n t l y being i n s t a l l e d almost a t h i r d of the Soviet "economically accessible" hydro potential i s now being u t i l i z e d . Many of the proposals which have not f a l l e n i n t o the economically accessible category have counterparts i n North America. The Yukon-Teslin-Taku proposal for the Northern B r i t i s h Columbia and Yukon area, i s comparable i n terms of r e l a t i v e l o c a -t i o n and scale to many of the Soviet proposals f o r the Lena River and i t s t r i b u t a r i e s . 8 Considerable p u b l i c i t y has been accorded each, yet ne i t h e r can be considered economically acces-s i b l e . There i s emerging a marked concentration of hydro capacity i n Central Siberia, the consequence of recent government promo-tion of hydro construction i n this region. A consistent p o l i c y regarding hydro development i n the Soviet Union has been absent, however, and since the raid-fifties several v a c i l l a t i o n s , some more apparent than r e a l , have occurred. One important " r e a l " change was the curtailment of the program f o r hydro development under the Seven Year Plan, with a smaller share of funds a l l o t t e d to the e l e c t r i c i t y industry being assigned to hydro construction . 9 As a r e s u l t selection of projects deemed most economic has been encouraged. It has been stressed here that i n Central S i b e r i a there e x i s t propitious p h y s i c a l conditions f o r hydro construction. But what of future development? CENTRAL SIBERIA The f a c t o r s which m i l i t a t e against and the benefits which are deemed to accrue from a d d i t i o n a l large scale hydro construc-t i o n i n Central Siberia, must be accorded objective and c a r e f u l weighing i f a reasoned a p p r a i s a l of the prospects i s to be ob-tained. I t has been i l l u s t r a t e d i n the comparison of Bratsk and Kuybyshev that because of d i f f e r e n t physical conditions the hydro stations i n Central S i b e r i a d i f f e r i n function from those i n other areas of the Soviet Union. In fact i t i s because they are not multi-purpose that has l e d i n large part to much of the argument against further development. Sig n i f i c a n t arguments f o r curtailment of hydro develop-ment i n Central S i b e r i a center around the supply of investment c a p i t a l . Of t o t a l Soviet c a p i t a l investment, S i b e r i a i n the past two or three years has claimed around 15 percent ( 5 , 8 3 6 out of 3 7 , 0 1 0 M rubles i n 1963) and i t i s notable that the rate of investment has not been i n c r e a s i n g . 1 0 Large scale hydro plants c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h i s region require anywhere from 700 M-l B rubles, which i s again about 15 percent of the t o t a l c a p i t a l investment i n S i b e r i a a n n u a l l y . 1 1 Thus, construction of any new station such as Sayan must increasingly be i n competition with other proposals f o r funds. In t h i s regard i t should be noted that Central S i b e r i a i s frequently touted as the l o g i c a l l o c ation f o r energy intensive industry, f o r example, the new chemical industry which i s currently receiving much attention. Moreover, with the recent change of government leaders, in d i c a t i o n s are that consumer goods may very well be given i n -creased p r i o r i t y i n the o v e r a l l allotment of investment c a p i t a l between the consumer and i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s . 1 2 These f a c t o r s plus previous indications of a stringency of c a p i t a l supply w i t h i n the Soviet Union, i n aggregate lend considerable weight to the argument that hydro development must of necessity gener-ate substantial benefits before being undertaken. In Central Si b e r i a the primary benefit i s large blocks of inexpensive e l e c t r i c i t y . Were these s t a t i o n s multi-purpose, hydro projects i n t h i s region would c e r t a i n l y be i n a more competitive p o s i t i o n than they are at present. From a macro point of view, investment i n the Soviet Union has often been seen i n terms of east versus west. Some author-i t i e s have pointed out that returns on c a p i t a l investment are higher i n the west (European Russia including the Urals), which has by far the lar g e s t share of f i x e d c a p i t a l and at least two-t h i r d s of the p o t e n t i a l market of the Soviet U n i o n . i f with-i n t h i s frame of reference consumer goods are to be given i n -creased emphasis, then the west l o g i c a l l y would be accorded 184 favour. A. s k i l l e d labour shortage c u r r e n t l y exists i n S i b e r i a generally and i t i s f e l t most acutely w i t h i n the Central Siberian region. In fact during the l a s t seven years 400,000 more people have l e f t S i b e r i a than have entered. 1^ Thus there a r i s e s the suggestion that a curtailment of hydro construction would release many s k i l l e d workers into the Siberian labour pool. How would such a move a f f e c t the e l e c t r i c i t y supply of the region? Further development of thermal power stations u t i -l i z i n g low cost s t r i p mined coal i s the suggested alternative as i t i s well recognized that labour requirements f o r t h e — i n s t a l l a -t i o n of equivalent i n s t a l l e d capacity are l e s s . D i r e c t l y or i n d i -r e c t l y , such considerations as these w i l l play a part i n the f i e l d of Siberian hydro development. Some of the reasons for hydro development i n t h i s region w i l l be considered now, using the most recent project, Sayan, as a s p e c i f i c example. I t i s not intended that Soviet p o l i c y be j u s t i f i e d , but to the extent possible, explained. To determine the stage of construction at Sayan the most recent reports have been used. In an e a r l i e r chapter some major arguments f o r the con-tinuance of hydro development i n Central S i b e r i a were outlined. For optimum u t i l i z a t i o n of the increasing experience and know-ledge of the construction crews and the e x i s t i n g fixed c a p i t a l f o r erection of hydro stations, a continuing program of develop-185 ment i s viewed by the proponents as essential. The success of t h i s i s reflected by a lower prime cost of h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y . When Krasnoyarsk comes under load, probably i n 1967, i t i s ex-pected that a gradual s h i f t of equipment to Sayan w i l l have taken place. This s h i f t w i l l p a r a l l e l that from Bratsk to the Ust-Ilim s i t e . From reports i n the press one can only deduce that con-str u c t i o n at Sayan, while c e r t a i n l y i n the preliminary stage, i s nevertheless underway. Preparation at the Sayan dam s i t e has reached the advanced stages of engineering and geophysical studies, which began i n 1963.15 Immediate expansion of housing f a c i l i t i e s for the anticipated i n f l u x of labourers i s planned, and a d d i t i o n a l l y , mention has been made of constructing a bridge across the Yenisey to the si t e at Sayan during the summer of 1965, since access i s r e s t r i c t e d during spring and f a l l months when i c e e i t h e r hinders t r a v e l by boat or i s not of s u f f i c i e n t thickness to permit c r o s s i n g . 1 0 In the majority of a r t i c l e s r e l a t i v e to Sayan examined i n this study over a period of two years, there i s reference to Lenin's o r i g i n a l vision of an i n d u s t r i a l complex at thi s l o c a t i o n . The i n i t i a l operation of Sayan i s regarded as an in t e g r a l part of the commemoration of the 100th anniversary of Lenin's birth. 1''' While admittedly i t i s possible to attach too much s i g n i f i c a n c e to such eulogy i t must be borne i n mind that as yet, i n face of the very s i g n i f i c a n t arguments outlined above, no decision to 186 suspend construction at Sayan has been i n d i c a t e d . 1 5 The t r a d i -t i o n a l l y close association between investment p o l i c y i n hydro construction and p o l i t i c s i n the Soviet Union has been d i s -cussed by others, but the existence of such an association lends weight to such subjective f a c t o r s . ^ Moreover, with the pro-posed er e c t i o n of the large scale hydro projects subsequent to Bratsk, much c r i t i c a l d iscussion has been evoked, yet' the Krasnoyarsk and Ust-Il i m projects have gone ahead. At t h i s point the same appears to be true with regard to Sayan. Perhaps with the introduction of the new Five Year Plan i n the f a l l of 1965, more d e f i n i t i v e information w i l l be available. In s p i t e of hydro development that has been undertaken and i s currently underway i n Central Siberia there i s a cloud over future prospects. Arguments on both sides have been presented, p o s s i b i l i t i e s outlined, and problems emphasized. At this point one cannot j u s t i f i a b l y make a d e f i n i t i v e statement regarding the course of hydro development i n t h i s region. I f construction continues i t w i l l l i k e l y be at a l e s s rapid pace than heretofore. I t i s certain that much w i l l continue to be said regarding the hydro resources of the east, p a r t i c u l a r l y the Angara-Yenisey Cascade, which f a l l s w e ll within the "economically a c c e s s i b l e " category established i n t h i s study. I t i s equally c e r t a i n that hydro i n other regions where benefits other than just e l e c t r i -c i t y accrue, w i l l continue with l i t t l e opposing argument. This study has attempted to present the spa t i a l aspects 187 of the generation and consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y i n the Soviet Union. While emphasis was i n t e n t i o n a l l y accorded hydroelectric power and hydro potential, simply because i t was f e l t that con-siderable c l a r i f i c a t i o n of the r o l e of hydro i n the Soviet power industry was required, the attention given the consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y i s regarded here as a s t a r t i n g point f o r further research. The l o c a t i o n of energy intensive industry i s of c r i -t i c a l importance i n the Soviet Union today. It has been shown that i n many regions power needs and power supply are thus f a r incompatible. Suggestions regarding the import of e l e c t r i c i t y from Central S i b e r i a were considered, but the whole question of the l o c a t i o n of energy intensive industry has yet to be dealt with. The data which has been provided i n t h i s study can pro-f i t a b l y be used as a basis for appraising the possible ramifi-cations of locating such industry i n a sp e c i f i c region. In th i s regard the approach advocated here f o r the analysis of the consumption of e l e c t r i c power i s viewed as being of considerable potential value. REFERENCES: CHAPTER VII 188 1. A t y p i c a l example i n , G. Manners, The Geography of  Energy, Hutchinson University L i b r a r y , London, 1 9 6 4 , p. 50. 2. See Appendix B, Part II. 3. Theodore Shabad, Soviet to B u i l d a Power Center i n Asia f o r I t s Needs i n Europe, New York Times, June 2 4 , 1965, p. 8. 4. See Appendix C, Part I I . 5. See Federal Power Commission, National Power Survey  1964, U.S. Government P r i n t i n g Of f i c e , Washington, D.C, October 1964, p. 107. 6. Calculated from data i n Table I, p. 5. Load factor the same as used i n Appendix C c a l c u l a t i o n s . 7. Figure f o r "tec h n i c a l l y exploitable" hydro potential from, F. Ya. Nesteruk, Razvitiye Gidroenergetiki SSSR, (Develop-ment of Hydroelectric Energy i n the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 61. 8. The Yukon-Teslin-Taku proposal l i k e those of the Lena River area has only been given preliminary study. I t has, how-ever, a p o t e n t i a l capacity of at least 3.5 MKW at a 65 percent load f a c t o r . Data obtained from J.D. Watts, Hydraulic Engineer, Water Resources Service, Government of B r i t i s h Columbia, V i c t o r i a , B r i t i s h Columbia. 9. See discussion i n , S.F. Shershov, Bely Ugol. (White Coal), Gosenergoizdat, Moskva, 1957, pp. 31-40. 10. Figure from, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1963 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'-noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1964, p. 458. 11. For example, f i n a l project cost at Bratsk estimated at 895 M. rubles, A Report on E l e c t r i c Power Developments i n the  U.S.S.R. 1963. Edison E l e c t r i c I n s t i t u t e , New York, 1964, p. 93. 12. See report i n , New York Times. December 13, 1964, p. 9. 13. For an i n t e r e s t i n g discussion see, N.M. Budtolayev, V.P. Novikov, and Yu. G. Saushkin, Problems of Economic Develop-189 ment of the West and East of the Soviet Union, Soviet Geography;  Review and Translation. January 1964, p. 11. 14. Problems of Manpower and Industry i n S i b e r i a , Current  Digest of the Soviet Press. Vol. XVII, No. 6, 1965, p. 17. 15. For a recent detailed report see, Izvestiya. March 30, 1965, p. 6, and f o r a note on i n i t i a t i o n of construction, Soviet News. London, March 10, 1965, p. 2. 16. Ibid . 17. Aside from the foregoing quote see as an example, Stroitel'naya Gazeta. January 5, 19o4, p. 4. 18. A l l reference to Sayan i n Pravda and Izvestiya during the winter of 1965-65 have been checked and there i s no i n -dica t i o n that construction w i l l be suspended. 19. For a general discussion see, J.P. Hardt, Investment Poli c y i n the Soviet Electric-Power Industry, and Comment on t h i s a r t i c l e by James H. Blackman, Value and Plan: Economic  Calcula t i o n and Organization i n Eastern Europe, (ed. G. Grossman), University of C a l i f o r n i a Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles, I960, p. 299. REFERENCES: FIGURES Figure 16, Data f o r t h i s map drawn from calculations i n Appendix G. BIBLIOGRAPHY NOTE: The t r a n s l i t e r a t i o n system used i s that suggested by Soviet Geography: Review and Translation. 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Beschinskiy, A., E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a i Progress Obshchestvennogo Proizvod'stva, ( E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n i n the Progress of S o c i a l Production), Voprosy Ekonomiki, (Questions of Economics), November 1 9 o l , pp. 2 9 - 4 1 . Bestchinsky, A., Water Power i n Energy Systems, Sixth World Power Conference; Transformation of Water Power. Melbourne, 1 9 6 2 , pp. 2 2 3 9 - 2 3 5 1 . Blackman, J.H., Comment on, J.P. Hardt's Investment Po l i c y i n 198 the Soviet Electric-Power Industry, Value and Plan:  Economic Calculation and Organization i n Eastern Europe, (ed. G. Grossman), University of C a l i f o r n i a Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles, I 9 6 0 , pp. 3 1 2 - 3 2 1 . Brents, T.A., Noviya Optoviya Stena na Gazovoye, (New Wholesale Price of Gas, Gasovove Delo. (Gas A f f a i r s ) , August 1 9 6 3 , pp. 4 4 - 4 9 . Budtolayev, N.M., Novikov, V.P., Saushkin, Yu.G., Problems of Economic Development of the West and East of the Soviet Union, Soviet Geography: Review and Translation. January 1 9 6 4 , pp. 3 - 1 5 . Chukhanov, Z.F., Soviets Find C a p i t a l Costs Make Hydro Less Economical, (from Teploenergetika, p a r t i a l t r a n s l a t i o n ) , commented on by P. Sporn, E l e c t r i c a l World f August 20, 1962, pp. 56-59. D i l l a r d , J.K., Baldwin, C.J., The Impact of Pooling on Power System Planning, E l e c t r i c a l World. March 3 0 , 1 9 6 4 , pp. 2 1 - 2 2 . Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i . ( E l e c t r i c Power Stations), (unsigned), January 1 9 6 3 , p. 4 ; November 1 9 6 3 , pp. 4 , 4 7 ; February 1 9 6 4 , p. 3 4 ; March 1 9 6 4 , p. 3 . Energetika. (Energetics), (unsigned), November 1 9 6 3 , p. 2 . Galperin, V.M., Natural Gas i n the U.S.S.R. Power Economy, Sixth World Power Conference. Melbourne, 1 9 6 2 , pp. 1 2 5 9 -1266. Gidrotekhnicheskoye S t r o i t e l ' s t v o . (Hydrotechnical Construction), (unsigned), September 1961, p. 3 ; January 1 9 6 3 , p. 2 ; June 1 9 6 3 , p. 4 1 ; November 1 9 6 3 , p. 4 . Gindin, A.M., Organizatsiya S t r o i t e l ' s t v a Bratskoi GES, (Construction Organization at the Bratsk GES), Gidrotekhni-cheskoye S t r o i t e l ' s t v o , (Hydrotechnical Construction), June 1 9 6 4 , pp. 1-6. Guyol, N., Energy Consumption and Economic Development, Essays  on Geography and Economic Development. University of Chicago, I960, pp. 65 - 7 7 . : Hardt, J.P., Investment Policy i n the Soviet Electric-Power 199 Industry, Value and Plan: Economic Calculation and  Organization in. Eastern Europe^ (ed. G. Grossman), Univer-s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles, I960, pp. 295-311. Jasny, Naum, A Note on R a t i o n a l i t y and E f f i c i e n c y i n the Soviet Economy, I, Soviet Studies. Vol. XII, A p r i l 1961, pp. 355-371. King, R.E., Exploration and Production i n Europe i n 1 9 6 3 , Association of American Petroleum Geologists; B u l l e t i n . August 1964, pp. 1340-1346. Kotilevsky, D.G., et a l . , The Development of Power Engineering i n the U.S.S.R. During the Period 1956-61, Sixth World  Power Conference. Melbourne, 1 9 6 2 , pp. 1999-2008. Lavrenenko, K.D., U.S.S.R. Power Developments and International Cooperation, Sixth World Power Conference,, Melbourne, 1 9 6 2 , pp. 4998-5011. Machowski, H., Die Entwicklung der E l e c t r o i n d u s t r i e i n dem Ostblockstaaten, Ost Europa Wirtschaft f A p r i l 1 9 6 3 , pp. 2 1 2 - 2 3 8 . Makarov, V.S., Sovremennoye Nakopleniye i Perspektivy i I s p o l ' -zovaniya Loma Chernykh Metallov v Vostochnoy S i b i r i , (Contemporary Accumulation and Future U t i l i z a t i o n of Heavy Scrap Metals i n Eastern S i b e r i a ) , Chernaya Metallurgiya:  Razvitiye Proizvoditel'nykh S i l Vostochnoy S i b i r i . (Heavy Metallurgy, Development of the Productive Strength of Eastern S i b e r i a ) , Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I 9 6 0 , pp. 2 0 0 - 2 0 5 . Mazover, Ya. A., et a l . , Budushchaya Geografiya Toplivno -Energeticheskogo Khozyaystvo SSSR, (Geography of Fuel-Energy Economy of the U.S.S.R. i n the Future), Ekonomiches- kaya Geografiya SSSR v Perspektivei. (Economic Geography i n the Future), Voprosy Geografii No. 57, Moskva, 1 9 6 2 , pp.23-41. Michel, A.A., KLain, S.A., Current Problems of the Soviet E l e c t r i c Power Industry, Economic Geography. July 1 9 6 4 , pp. 2 0 6 - 2 2 0 . M i k i r t i l c h i a n , L., Lake Sevan Development Projects i n Soviet Armenia, Studies on the Soviet Union. Vol. 1 , I n s t i t u t e f o r the Study of the U.S.S.R., March 1 9 6 2 , pp. 93-99. Muir, J.F., Ruus, E., A Yardstick f o r Evaluating Costs of 200 E l e c t r i c Energy i n B.C.f Association of Professional Engineers, February 1962, pp. 34-38. Nair, K.P., Hydro-Electric Resources of India, Sixth World Power Conference; Transformation of Water Power. Melbourne, 1962, pp. 2328-2339. Osnovnye Pokazateli Toplivno-Energeticheskogo Balansa za I960, Godu, (Basic Indicies of the Fuel-Energy Balance i n I960), (unsigned), Vestnik S t a t i s t i k i . ( S t a t i s t i c a l Herald), May 1962, pp. 86-91. Pretvo, G.A., Plotina Sayano-Shushenskoi G i d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i po R. Enisey, (Dam of the Sayan Hydroelectric Station on the R. Yenisey), Gidrotekhnicheskoye S t r o i t e l * s t v o . (Hydrotechnical Construction), A p r i l 1964, pp. 10-14. Probst, A.E., Osnovnyye Voprosy Razvitiya Toplivnogo Khozyay-stvo Vostochnoy S i b i r i , (Basic Problems i n the Development of the Fuel Economy of Eastern S i b e r i a ) , Toplivo i  Toplivnaya Promyshlennost': Razvitiye Proizvoditel'nykh  S i l Vostochnoy S i b i r i . (Fuel and the Fuel Industry, Development of the Productive Strength of Eastern S i b e r i a ) , Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I960, pp. 6-32. Prociuk, S.G., The T e r r i t o r i a l Pattern of I n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i n the U.S.S.R., A Case Study i n the Location of Industry, Soviet Studies. Vol. 13, No. 1, July 1961, pp. 72-76. Riznik, A., Litvak, S., Toplivno-Energeticheskiy Balans SSSR za 1962, Godu, (Fuel Energy Balance of the U.S.S.R. i n 1962), Vestnik S t a t i s t i k i . ( S t a t i s t i c a l Herald), May 1964, pp. 15-27. Saatchjan, L.O., L y a l i k , G.N., The Role of Water Power i n the Formation of Large Power Systems and Consolidated System i n the Soviet Union, F i f t h World Power Conference.  Transformation of Water Power. Montreal. 1958. pp. 627-641. Savenko, Yu. N., The Fuel Balance of Kuybyshev Oblast, Soviet  Geography: Review and Translation. June 1961, pp. 72-76. Shabad, T., News Notes, Soviet Geography: Review and Trans- l a t i o n . December I96I, p. 65; January 1963, p. 72; March 1963, p. 45; February 1964, p. 61; September 1964, p. 81. Shabad, T., Lydolph, P.E., The Chemical Industries i n the U.S.S.R., Ti.idschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geograf i e . August, September, 1962, pp. 169-179. 201 Soviets B u i l d 500 KV-Grid i n S i b e r i a , (unsigned), E l e c t r i c a l  World. March 3 0 , 1964, pp. 17-19. T h i e l , E r i c h , The Power Industry i n the Soviet Union, Economic  Geography. Vol. 27, 1951, pp. 107-122. Vendrov, S.L., et a l . , The Problem of Transformation and U t i l i z a t i o n of the Water Resources of the Volga River and the Caspian Sea, Soviet Geography: Review and Translation. September 1964, pp. 23-34. Vogel, Von G o t t f r i e d , Die E l e k t r i z i t a t s w i r t s c h a f t , UdSSR: Unser  Wissen uber die Sow.ietunion. (ed. K. Kriiger), B e r l i n , 1957, pp. 336-368. Vvedensky, V., E l e c t r i c Power Development, Studies on the Soviet Union. I n s t i t u t e f o r the Study of the U.S.S.R., A p r i l 1962, pp. 70-79. C. NEWSPAPERS, DIGESTS AND ABSTRACTS Building the Reshoty-Boguchany Railroad Line, (unsigned), Gudok, (Whistle), July 10, 1963, Translation on Soviet Transportation (20879*), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, September 1963, Reel #4, p. 7. Central Asia i n Seven Years, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo Vo Sredney  Aziya. (unsigned), Tashkent, May 1964, pp. 13-18, The Soviet Economic System, (27588), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, October 1964, Reel #34, pp. 6-10. Chernikov, G., Sebestoimost i Rechnogo Stoka, (Prime Cost and River Flow), Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta. (Economic Newspaper), June 2 3 , 1962, p. 35. Current Digest of the Soviet Press, (unsigned), Vol. 1, No. 43, 1949, p. 50; Vol. 1, No. 48, 1949, p. 56. Die Erddlwirtschaft der UdSSR Forderung und Vorkommen, Insbesondere i n Siberien, (unsigned), Der Aktuelle Osten: Kommentare und Nachrichten aus P o l i t i k , Wirtschaft und  Technik der UdSSR und der S a t e l l i t e n l a n d e r . Bonn. No. 43. December 2, 1963, pp. 4-8. Die I n d u s t r i e l l e Planung der Sowjetunion fur 1962, (unsigned), Der Aktuelle Osten: Kommentare und Nachrichten aus P o l i t i k . 202 Wirtschaft und Technik der UdSSR und der Sat e l l i t e n l a n d e r , Bonn, No. 4, January 31, 1962, pp. 2-4. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta. (Economic Newspaper), (unsigned), September 7, 1963, pp. 8,9; January 25, 1964, pp. 10,14,34; February 1, 1964, p. 16; February 29, 1964, p. 42; A p r i l 16, 1964, p. 48; June 13, 1964, p. 18; June 20, 1964, pp. 9,14, 64; June 27, 1964, pp. 44,45. Gopkalo, G., Vedomstvennyy Bar'yer, (Administrative B a r r i e r ) , Stroitel'naya Gazeta. (Construction Newspaper), June 26, 1964, p. 1. Hopkins, Garth, W i l l Canada Hydro Remain Untapped, Vancouver  Province. March 2, 1964, p. 17. Izvestiya. (unsigned), November 20, 1963, p. 4; March 15, 1965, p. 4; March 30, 1965, p. 6. Khrakovskiy, Yu., Construction i n Eastern S i b e r i a , S t r o i t e l ' - naya Gazeta. (Construction Newspaper), Moscow, May 1 9 , 1 9 6 3 , Soviet Regional Economy (19918), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, June 1963, Reel #2, p. 20. Khramtsov, A., Sayan GES, Vechernyaya Moskva. (Moscow Evening), A p r i l 8, 1963, Translations on U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power (19474), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, June 1963, Reel #2, p. 11. Khrushchev at Volga Dam: Focus on Thermal Power, (unsigned), Izvestiya, August 12, 1958, Current Digest of the Soviet  Press. Vol. X, No. 3 2 , September 17, 1958, p. 4. Khyazev, K., We Must Give an Outlet to the Energy of the Angara River, Stroitel'naya Gazeta. (Construction Newspaper), Moscow, December 19, 1962, Translations on U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power (17380), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, February 1963, Reel #2, pp. 61-63. Krasnoyarskiy Rabochiy. (Krasnoyarsk Worker), (unsigned), February 1, 1964, p. 1. Navigation Over Dangerous Angara Rapids, (unsigned), Sovetskaya  Rossiya. (Soviet Russia), July 12, 1963, Translations on U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power (21076), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, October 1963, Reel #2, p. 9. New York Times, (unsigned), December 13, 1964, p. 9. People of Moscow Urged to Economize on E l e c t r i c Power, (unsigned), 203 Moskovskaya Pravda. March 15, 1964, Translations on U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power, (25759), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, July-August 1964, Reel #3, p. 43. Pobeda S t r o i t e l e y Bratskoy GES, (Triumphant Construction of Bratsk Hydro Station), (unsigned), Trud, (Labour), January 16, 1964, p. 1. ' Power Shortage i n Various Areas Indicated, (unsigned), Bakinskiy Rabochiy. (Baku Worker), July 30, 1964, Soviet Economic System, {26184), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, July-August 1964, Reel #4, p. 3 . Pravda. (unsigned), May 2 5 , 1963, p. 2; November 30, 1963, p. 1; January 15, 1964, p. 2; January 17, 1964, p. 2; August 20, 1964, p. 2; September 21, 1964, p. 2. Problems of Manpower and Industry i n S i b e r i a , (unsigned), Current Digest of the Soviet Press, Vol. XVII, No. 6, 1965, p. 17. Referativny Sbornik: Ekonomika Promyshlennosti. (Economics of Industry), (unsigned), Akademiya Nauk SSSR, May 1962, (5 B49), p. 7 5 ; September 1963, (9 B47), p. 4; February 1964, (2 B 5 5 ) , p. 13; March 1964, (3 B 5 2 ) , p. 18; A p r i l 1964, (4 B44), p. 19. Referativny Zhurnal: Elektrotekhnika i Energetika #E. Elektricheskive S t a n t s i i . S e t i i Sistemi. ( E l e c t r i c a l Engineering and Energetics #E, E l e c t r i c Power Stations, Networks and Systems], (unsigned), Akademiya Nauk SSSR, May 1964, (5 E I 6 3 ) , p. 24; (5 E166), p. 2 5 ; (5 E168), (5 E169), p. 2 6 . Referativny Zhurnal: Geografiya, (Geography), (unsigned), Akademiya Nauk SSSR, January 1963, (1 E15), p. 4 . Shabad, Theodore, Soviet to B u i l d a Power Center i n Asia f o r I t s Needs i n Europe, New York Times, June 24, 1965, p. 8. Sovetskaya Latviya, (Soviet L a t v i a ) , (unsigned), October 16, 1963, p. 2, Translations on U.S.S.R. E l e c t r i c Power (22633), J.P.R.S., Microfilm, January 1964, Reel #12, p. 3 4 . Soviet News, (unsigned), London, March 10, 1 9 6 5 , p. 2. Soviet News B u l l e t i n , (unsigned), Ottawa, November 2 3 , 1 9 6 4 , p. 1; February 2, 1965, p. 2. 204 Stand und Entwicklung der Kernenergiegewinnung i n der UdSSR, (unsigned), Der Aktuelle Osten; Kommentare und Nachrichten  aus P o l i t i k . Wirtschaft und Technik der UdSSR und der  Sa t e l l i t e n l S n d e r . Bonn. No. 40-41. October 26. 1962. pp. 4-9. S t r o i t e l ! n a y a Gazeta. (Construction Newspaper), (unsigned), January 5, 1964, p. 4. D. MAPS AND ATLASES Atlas SSSR. Dlya Sredney Shkoly. Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Moskva, 1961. Atlas SSSR. Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Moskva, 1962. Bolshava Sovetskiv Atlas Mira. Moskva, 1937. E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR. (1:8,000,000), Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1963. E. INTERVIEWS AND UNPUBLISHED MATERIAL Barr, B.M., Central S i b e r i a - A New Primary I n d u s t r i a l Region? Unpublished Master's Thesis, University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1965. E l l i s , H.M., B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver. Interviewed March 10,11, 1965. Hardt, John P., Economics of the Soviet E l e c t r i c Power Industry. Ph.D. Thesis, Microfilm, Cornell University, 1955. Kress, W.D., The Geography of E l e c t r i c Power i n Minnesota. Ph.D. Thesis, Microfilm, University of Minnesota, May 1962. Nash, C., B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver. Interviewed January 21, 1965. Watts, J.D., Hydraulic Engineer, Water Resources Service, Government of B r i t i s h Columbia, V i c t o r i a . Interviewed June 3, 1965. APPENDICES APPENDIX A 206 DERIVATION OF PRIME COST OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER IN THE SOVIET UNION The prime purpose of t h i s Appendix i s to i l l u s t r a t e the e f f e c t that the i n c l u s i o n of reservoir costs and inte r e s t charges w i l l have on the ultimate per KWH prime cost of elec-t r i c i t y . To achieve t h i s end, a formula given by J.F. Muir and E. Ruus has been used with but s l i g h t modification: 1 Total Cost per KW. of Capacity = prime cost of (8760)** U 4 6 ) b U95)c e l e c t r i c i t y . a - Total number of hours per year. b - Plant f a c t o r . This would appear to be the mini-mum plant factor used when c a l c u l a t i n g prime cost, i . e . , 46 percent or 4,000 hours per annum. The average plant factor f o r a l l hydro plants i n 1963 was 3,906 hours; Narodnoye  Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1963 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Year Book), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1965, p. 159. c - Energy l o s s component, primarily as a r e s u l t of transmission. Taxation and insurance charges have not been included since they are not germane i n the Soviet scene (and have a n e g l i g i b l e e f f e c t on the r e s u l t ) . In addition, annual operating and main-tenance costs have been set a r b i t r a r i l y . In the following examples then, i t has been assumed f i r s t of a l l that reservoir construction accounts f o r 20 percent of the t h e o r e t i c a l t o t a l c a p i t a l outlay f o r a hydro 2 plant. The inte r e s t rate has been set at 3 percent, which o r d i n a r i l y would be reasonable f o r a government project, but i f applied to the Soviet Union currently, might well be some-what on the low side i n view of the apparent stringent supply of investment c a p i t a l . For the purpose here these problems are of l i t t l e d i r e c t concern. The period f o r amortization i s based on that f o r the Bratsk hydro plant. In the f i r s t case, the Soviet method i s followed: 1. Prime Cost Based on Simple Amortization Charges. Total c a p i t a l outlay f o r 2 MKW hydroelectric plant Costs of reservoir construction (equals 20 percent of t o t a l c a p i t a l outlay) .20 x 500 C a p i t a l outlay f o r actual operating un i t 500 - 100 Investment per KW 400 M rubles 2 MKW Simple amortization assuming 25 year period 400 M rubles 25 years Annual amortization cost per KW 16 M rubles 2 MKW Annual operating and maintenance cost per KW Total annual cost per KW 500 M rubles = 100 M rubles = 400 M rubles 200 rubles per KW 16 M rubles per year 8* rubles per KW .50 rubles per KW 8.50 rubles per KW 208 Prime cost of e l e c t r i c i t y per KWH 8.50 (8760)(:U)(.95) ,22 kopeks per KWH In the second estimate, r e s e r v o i r costs are included. 2. Prime Cost Including Simple Amortization Charges and Reservoir Costs. Total c a p i t a l outlay f o r 2 MKW hydroelectric plant Investment per KW 500 M rubles 2 MKW Simple amortization assuming 25 year period 500 M rubles 25 years Annual amortization cost per KW 20 M rubles 2 MKW Annual operating and maintenance cost per KW Total cost per KW Prime cost of e l e c t r i c i t y per KWH 10.50 ( 8 7 6 0 ) t . 4 6 J ( . 9 5 ) = 500 M rubles 250 rubles per KW 20 M rubles per year 10 rubles per KW .50 rubles per KW 10.50 rubles per KW .27 kopeks per KWH F i n a l l y , i n t e r e s t charges are taken into account as well as the above f a c t o r s . 3. Prime Cost Including Amortization, Reservoir Costs and Interest Charges. 209 Total c a p i t a l outlay f o r 2 MKW hydroelectric plant = 500 M rubles Investment per KW 500 M rubles = 250 rubles 2 MKW per KW Interest charge per KW at 3 percent f o r f i r s t year .03 x 250 = 7.50 rubles per KW Total cost per KW without in t e r e s t (from part 2) = 10.50 rubles per KW T o t a l cost per KW = 18.00 rubles per KW Prime cost of e l e c t r i c i t y per KWH 18.00 = .47 kopeks (8760)(.46)(.95) per KWH REFERENCES: 1. J.F. Muir and E. Ruus, A Yardstick f o r Evaluating  Costs of E l e c t r i c Energy i n B.C., Association of Professional Engineers, February 1962, pp. 34-38. 2. This f i g u r e i s not u n r e a l i s t i c e s p e c i a l l y f o r those plants i n European Russia. See G.A. Russo (ed.), Hydroelectric  Power Stations of the Volga and Kama Cascade Systems. (Volzhskii i Kamskii Kaskady G i d r o e l e k t r o s t a n t s i i , Moskva, I960;, Published f o r the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C, by the I s r a e l Program f o r S c i e n t i f i c Translations, Jerusalem, 1963, p. 213. 3. The 25 year period f o r amortization of the dam at Bratsk i s i n d i c a t i v e of the new p o l i c y i n the Soviet Union. Previously an average of a 100 year period f o r repayment had been used. In t h i s case only a span of 16 years i s allowed f o r t o t a l depreciation of machinery, again somewhat lower than the average; Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, Comparisons of the United States and Soviet Economies.  Part I I . United States Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , Washington, D.C, 1 9 5 9 , p. 4 8 1 ; and Recent E l e c t r i c Power Developments  i n the U.S.S.R.. Report of the United States Delegation Tour to Soviet Russia, August 23-September 9 , 1 9 6 2 , Under U.S.-U.S.S.R. Exchange Agreement, United States Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , Washington, D.C, December 2 7 , 1 9 6 2 , p. 7 . APPENDIX B 211 THE MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY IN THE SOVIET UNION In t h i s Appendix a regional breakdown of consumption of e l e c t r i c energy has been worked out wherever data permitted. Central S i b e r i a w i l l be considered i n greatest d e t a i l as i t i s t h i s region which i s considered the future storehouse of e l e c t r i c power. Consequently i t i s e s s e n t i a l that one have some idea of the KW capacity required to meet the demands of the important sector and i n d u s t r i a l consumers, i f a reasoned conclusion regarding the p l a u s i b i l i t y of exporting power to European Russia i s to be arrived a t . Once these capacities are determined one can compare the planned i n s t a l l e d capacity i n 1970, f o r example, with what w i l l be required to meet the planned expansion i n i n d u s t r i a l and sector needs at that time, any r e s i d u a l thus adding weight to the p o s s i b i l i t y of export. In determining the consumers f o r which required KW capacity would be estimated, the following points have been used as guides i n s e l e c t i o n : - Productive processes consuming large blocks of e l e c t r i c i t y . - Those consumers with low load f a c t o r s . - Data a v a i l a b i l i t y . The concern i n t h i s Appendix i s with estimating required i n s t a l l e d KW capacity rather than consumption simply i n terms of KWH. I t w i l l be evident that while two consumers are equal i n terms of KWH used, because of a difference i n load f a c t o r the KW capacity required to supply these demands may be quite d i f f e r e n t . This c e r t a i n l y i s the most important consideration. There i s an extreme dearth of s t a t i s t i c s concerning the consumption of e l e c t r i c power i n the Soviet Union, v i r t u a l l y nothing e x i s t i n g on a regional l e v e l . As a r e s u l t figures have been arr i v e d at, i n some cases, by rather i n d i r e c t means. However, i t i s f e l t that they o f f e r a credible, a l b e i t rough, estimate of the r e a l s i t u a t i o n . The loadings f o r sectors of the economy (e.g., Domestic and Communal Economy) and s p e c i f i c industries were offered by C. Nash (B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, B.C.), and these are used throughout on the assumption that there would be no marked difference between the Canadian and Soviet scene. LOAD FACTORS Sector Percent 1. Domestic and Communal Economy 40 2. Agriculture 15 3. E l e c t r i c Railways and Associated Uses 25 Industry 1. Aluminum 95 2. Iron and S t e e l , non-electric 50 3. Iron and S t e e l , e l e c t r i c §0 4. Pulp and Paper 35 5. Synthetic rubber 75 6. Nitrogenous f e r t i l i z e r s 90 ?• Machine industry (general) 25 Industry (ctd.) Percent 8. Metal Fabrication and Custom Machine Building 25 9. Cement 70 Line Loss and Station Consumption 65 PART I MAJOR CONSUMERS OF ELECTRIC POWER IN CENTRAL SIBERIA, JANUARY 1st, 1965. In s t a l l e d Capacity. The i n s t a l l e d capacity i n the Central Siberian System at the end of 1964 has been estimated at 10*5 MKW, giving an annual generation of about 60 BKWH (assuming an average 65 percent plant f a c t o r ) . The following plants comprise the bulk of the i n s t a l l e d capacity: MKW Bratsk Hydro Station 4.0 Irkutsk »» « .66 Novosibirsk Hydro " .44 Nazarovo Thermal .9 Tom-Usinsk " « 1.4 Novosibirsk " " .1 Kuznetsk " " (tota l ) 1. Small c i t y * Stations " .815 9.315 Required KW Capacity by Sector. 1. Domestic and Communal Economy. It i s expected that 5 percent of t o t a l generation i n 1965 w i l l be required to meet the needs of t h i s sector. The term "communal economy" covers such items as street l i g h t i n g and miscellaneous c i t y needs. On the basis of t h i s f i g u r e , the KW capacity required to meet the demand i s : i 60 BKWH ( t o t a l generation) x .05 = 3 BKWH i i 3 BKWH  (#760)M.4) D = .857 MKW a. t o t a l number of hours per year b. load f a c t o r 2. Agriculture. In 1965, t h i s sector i s expected to consume 2 percent of t o t a l generation.^ Required KW capacity i s , therefore: i (60 BKWH) (.02) = 1.2 BKWH i i 1.2 BKWH = .923 MKW (8760) (.15) 3. E l e c t r i c Railways and Associated Uses. In 1965, t h i s sector i s expected to consume approx-imately 12 percent of t o t a l generation. This fig u r e has been reduced to 10 percent since the Abakan-Tayshet railway i s not as yet i n f u l l operation. 4 Required KW capacity i s : i (60 BKWH) (.1) - 6 BKWH i i 6 BKWH = 2.7 MKW (8760) (7257 Required KW Capacity by Industry. 1. Aluminum. I t has been assumed that 19,000 KWH are consumed i n producing one ton of aluminum. Production of aluminum i n S i b e r i a was calculated from Shabad, as .4 M tons f o r 1965 (January)• 5 215 i (19,000 KWH) (.4 M tons) - 7.6 BKWH i i 7.6 BKWH = .915 MKW (8760) (.95) 2. Integrated Iron and Steel (non-electric). Production of st e e l from integrated iron and s t e e l plants was estimated at 5«1 M tons f o r 1965. Consumption of e l e c t r i c power per ton produced was estimated to be of the order of 250 KWH.^  i (250 KWH) (5.1 M tons) = 1.27 BKWH i i 1.27 BKWH _ .292 MKW (8760) (.5) 3. Iron and Steel ( e l e c t r i c ) . Production of e l e c t r i c s t e e l was estimated to be .020 M tons. Consumption of e l e c t r i c power per ton pro-duced was estimated at 550 KWH per ton f o r 1965.^ Required KW capacity i s : i (550 KWH) (.02 M tons) = .011 BKWH i i .011 BKWH = .0016 MKW (8760) (.8) 4. Pulp and Paper. Production of pulp was estimated at .147 M tons and paper and cardboard, .103 M tons."*"^ Consumption per ton was taken at 600 KWH f o r pulp, and 300 KWH f o r paper and card-board.^" Required KW capacity i s : a. Pulp i (600 KWH) (.147 M tons) = .0882 BKWH i i .0882 BKWH = .0118 MKW (*760) M 5 ) b. Paper and Cardboard. i (300 KWH) (.103 M tons) = .031 BKWH i i .031 BKWH = .016 MKW (wot \.m 5. Synthetic Rubber. 12 Production i n 1965 was estimated to be .180 M tons. Consumption of e l e c t r i c power per ton produced was estimated at 2,000 KWH.13 Required capacity i s : i (2000 KWH) (.180 M tons) = .360 BKWH i i .360 BKWH = .057 MKW (8760) (.75) 6. Nitrogenous F e r t i l i z e r s . Production was estimated at .250 M tons ( 1 9 5 5 ) , ^ of which i t has been assumed 10 percent was produced using an e l e c t r o l y s i s process (calcium cyanamide). Consumption of e l e c t r i c power required per ton produced was estimated at 14,000 KWH. Required capacity i s : i (14000 KWH) (.025 M tons) = .35 BKWH i i .35 BKWH = .044 MKW (8706) (.90) 7. A g r i c u l t u r a l Machine Industry. Production has been estimated at 13,000 machines per year (1965), with t o t a l value of 130 M rubles. Consumption of e l e c t r i c energy i s 110 KWH per 100 rubles production, 15 according to one source. ' Required KW capacity i s : i (110 KWH) (130 M rubles) = .143 BKWH 217 i i .143 BKWH - .130 MKW (8760j ( . 2 5 ) 8. Metal Fabrication and Custom Machine Building. An estimate was arrived at by assuming that one plant of this type would consume .070 BKWH per annum. Number of plants was estimated at 29. 1 d Required KW capacity i s : i (.070 BKWH per annum) (29) - 2 BKWH i i 2 BKWH (8760) ( . 2 5 ) = .910 MKW 9. Cement. 17 Production for 1962 was estimated to be 15 M tons. ' IS One ton produced consumed 35 KWH. Required capacity i s : i (35 KWH) (15 M tons) = .525 BKWH i i .525 BKWH = .086 MKW 1*7%$ (.7) Line Loss and Station Consumption. It was assumed that 10 percent of total generation 19 was used in this manner. 7 Required capacity i s : i (60 BKWH) (.1) - 6 BKWH i i 6 BKWH = 1.05 MKW (8760) (.65) Total Required KW Capacity - Central Siberia 1965 - 7.9316 MKW. 218 PART I I MAJOR CONSUMERS OF ELECTRIC POWER IN CENTRAL SIBERIA, 1970. I n s t a l l e d Capacity. The figure of 140 BKWH annual generation was taken 20 f o r 1970. At 65 percent average plant f a c t o r , t h i s could mean a t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity of: 140 BKWH (8760) (.65) = 24.6 MKW ;Required KW Capacity by Sector. 1. Domestic and Communal Economy. A 10 percent increase over 1965 was assumed: 1965: 3 BKWH - .857 MKW, therefore, 1970: 3.3 BKWH = .940 MKW 2. Agriculture. Assumed no change from 1965 .923 MKW 3. E l e c t r i c Railways and Associated Uses. I t was assumed that absolute consumption has increased 21 by 20 percent over 1965. Required KW capacity i s : 1965: 2.7 MKW 1970: (2.7 MKW) (1.2) = 3.24 MKW Required KW Capacity by Industry. 1. Aluminum. It was assumed that production was of the order of 219 lo55 M tons, assuming 19,000 KWH per ton produced was con-22 sumed. Required capacity i s : i (19000 KWH) (1.55 M Tons) = 29.4 BKWH i i 29.4 BKWH = 3.54 MKW (8766) (.95) 2. Integrated Iron and Steel (non-electric). I t was assumed that t o t a l integrated production 23 would be 8.4 M tons. Again, 250 KWH consumption was assumed fo r production of 1 ton of s t e e l . Capacity required i s : i (250 KWH) (8.4 M tons) = 2.1 BKWH i i 2.1 BKWH - .480 MKW (4760) (.5) 3. Iron and Steel ( e l e c t r i c ) Assumed no change from 1965 .0016 MKW 4. Pulp and Paper. a. Pulp The production of pulp f o r 1970 was estimated to be 1.36 M tons. Consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y per ton produced would be 600 KWH. Capacity required i s : i (600 KWH) (.447 M tons) = .268 BKWH i i .268 BKWH = .0322 MKW (8760) (.85) 'i b. Paper and Cardboard. Paper and cardboard production was expected to reach .676 M tons, thereby consuming about 300 KWH per t o n . 2 5 Capacity required i s : i (300 KWH) (.676 M tons) = .203 BKWH 220 i i .203 BKWH = .0244 MKW (87b0| 1.85) 5 . Synthetic Rubber. Assumed no change from 1965 . 0 5 7 MKW 6. Nitrogenous F e r t i l i z e r s . It was assumed that a twofold increase occurred over 1965, since the latter was based on 1955 production without change. Capacity required i s : 1965: .0440 MKW 1970: (.0440 MKW) (2) - .0880 MKW 7. Agricultural Machine Industry. Soviet plans are not known and therefore assumed no change• Assumed no change from 1965 .13 MKW 8. Metal Fabrication and Custom Machine Building. Assumed no change from 1965 .910 MKW 9. Cement. Assumed no change from 1965 .086 MKW27 Line Loss and Station Consumption. It was assumed that the same percentage consumption would exist as in 1965, i.e., about 10 percent of annual generation* Capacity required i s : i (140 BKWH) (.1) - 14 BKWH i i 14 BKWH: - 2.46 MKW (8760) ( . 6 5 ) Total Required KW Capacity - Central Siberia 1970 - 12.9122 MKW PART III 221 MAJOR CONSUMERS OF ELECTRIC POWER IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA 1962. Installed Capacity. The installed regional capacities (and annual generation of electricity) for European Russia have been calculated in Appendix C, and as indicated are based on 1962 data. The following i s a summary of the regional figures. MKW BKWH Center-Volga 16.2 86 Ural 11.75 66 South 14 81 Northwest 6.4 30 48.35 263 Total U.S.S.R. (1962) 82.4 369 European Russia makes up 57 percent of total Soviet installed capacity and 71 percent of annual generation. (The difference i s simply a reflection of the higher than average annual plant factor, and larger operating units characteristic of the industrial areas of European Russia). Since the installed capacity of European Russia has been calculated on the basis of 1962 data, in estimating the KW capacity required to meet the major demands, the same base year has been used wherever possible, (especially in the industrial sector). 222 Required KW Capacity by Sector. 1. Domestic and Communal Economy. Figure f o r t h i s sector has been based i n part on that 28 f o r the nation as a whole i n 1955, (16.7 percent), but with the rapid increase i n annual generation t h i s has been decreased s l i g h t l y , to 12 percent. This corresponds well with the general 29 range of estimates from d i f f e r e n t sources. 7 Required KW capacity i s : i (263 BKWH) (.12) = 31.5 BKWH i i 31.5 BKWH = 9 MKW (8760) (.40) 2. Agriculture. In a r r i v i n g at a figure f o r t h i s sector, the t o t a l generation from a g r i c u l t u r a l plants i n 1962, about 2 percent, 30 has been taken into consideration. This neglects obviously, the "import" of e l e c t r i c i t y f a c i l i t a t e d by the d i s t r i b u t i o n of lower voltage l i n e s , which are t i e d i n with other sources of e l e c t r i c i t y , ( i . e . , regional g r i d ) . Consequently i t has 31 been set at 3 percent of t o t a l generation. Capacity required i s : i (263 BKWH) (.03) = 7.8 BKWH i i 7.8 BKWH - 6 MKW (8766) (.15) 3. E l e c t r i c Railways and Associated Uses. It has been estimated that 6 percent of t o t a l generation was consumed by t h i s sector i n 1962, again, a r e l a t i v e decrease from i t s p o s i t i o n i n 1958. 3 2 Required 223 capacity i s : i (263 BKWH) (.06) - 15.7 BKWH i i 15 .7 BKWH = 7.1 MKW (3766) (.25) Required KW Capacity by Industry. 1. Aluminum. Total production i n 1962 has been estimated at .6 33 M tons. Consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y per ton produced -19,000 KWH. Capacity required i s : i (19000 KWH) (.6 M tons) = 11.4 BKWH i i 11.4 BKWH = 1.37 MKW (8760) (.95) 2. Integrated Iron and Steel (non-electric). Production i n 1962 f o r European Russia estimated to be 55 M to n s . ^ 4 Consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y per ton produced -250 KWH. Capacity required i s : i (250 KWH) (55 M tons) = 13.7 BKWH i i 13.7 BKWH = 3.1 MKW W66J (.5) 3. Iron and Steel ( e l e c t r i c ) . I t has been assumed that 80 percent of e l e c t r i c s t e e l production originates i n European Russia, (1962). Total production 4.3 M tons.^ 5 Assumed that 550 KWH required f o r every ton produced. Capacity required i s : i (550 KWH) (3.5 M tons) = 1.9 BKWH i i 1.9 BKWH = .27 MKW (87&QJ (.8) 2 2 4 4. Pulp. In view of the f a c t that paper and cardboard pro-duction i s an i n s i g n i f i c a n t consumer of e l e c t r i c i t y , (see Part I ) , only production of pulp has been taken into con-sideration. Production f o r 1962 estimated to be 1.9 M tons, 36 75 percent of the national t o t a l . C o n s u m p t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y per ton produced - 600 KWH. Capacity required i s : i (600 KWH) (1.9 M tons) = 1.1 BKWH i i 1.1 BKWH = .148 MKW 1*760} M5) 5. Synthetic Rubber. Production i n 1962 estimated at .695 M tons,37 per ton consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y during processing being 2,000 KWH. Required KW capacity i s : i (2000 KWH) (.695 M tons) r 1.39 BKWH i i 1.39 BKWH - .213 MKW (8760) (.75) 6. Nitrogenous F e r t i l i z e r . Production i n 1962, 6.9 M tons, of which European Russia and the Urals are estimated to account f o r 75 percent 38 of t o t a l . However, the amount of calcium cyanamide produced, (ni t r a t e f e r t i l i z e r ) which involves an e l e c t r o l y s i s process 39 i s comparatively s m a l l . I t has been estimated that i t i s of the order of 10 percent, (.5 M tons) of t o t a l n i t r a t e production. Consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y per ton produced -14,000 KWH. Capacity required i s : i (14000 KWH) (.5 M tons) = 7 BKWH i i 7 BKWH - . 9 MKW (8760) ( . 9 ) 7. Cement. Total production for European Russia in 1962 was estimated to be 33 M tons. 4^ It has been assumed as before that 35 KWH of e l e c t r i c i t y are consumed per ton produced. Capacity required i s : i (35 KWH) (33 M tons) = 1 . 155 BKWH i i 1.155 BKWH - . 1 8 8 MKW (8760) (.7) Line Loss and Station Consumption. Assumed that 12 percent of total regional generation consumed in this manner.41 Capacity required i s : i (263 BKWH) (.12) = 31.5 BKWH 31.5 BKWH (8760) (.65) i i - 5.5 MKW Estimated Total Installed Capacity Required by Selected Major Consumers - 33.709 MKW REFERENCES: 1. Compiled from Pravda. January 17, 1964, p. 2. Estimate of total generation was obtained from an estimate of 65 percent plant factor for Central Siberia. This figure, perhaps an overestimate, was taken to reduce inflation of required KW capacity by sector of industry. 2 . I,P . Butyagin, et a l . , Energetika S i b i r i . (Energy in Siberia), Gosudarstvennoye Energeticheskoye Izdatel'stvo, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , p. 2 9 . 226 3 . Ibid. 4. Line recently completed but not yet f u l l y elec-t r i f i e d , Pravda, January 30, 1964, p. 4. 5. Calculated from: Theodore Shabad, The Soviet Aluminum Industry, American Metal Market. October, 1958, pp. 20-2; personal observations of B. Barr at Shelekhov, April 24, 1964. Note: estimates exclude the Bratsk (Anzeb) plant, construction of which began in mid-1961, T. Shabad, News Notes, Soviet Geography: Review and Translation. December 1961, p. 6 5 . 6 . Calculated from: P.E. Lydolph, Geography of the  U.S.S.R.. John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York, 1964, p. 355, and T. Shabad, News Notes, Soviet Geography: Review and  Translation. March, 1963, p. 45, September, 1964, p. 81. 7. A.E. Probst, Osnovnyye Voprosy Razvitiya Toplivnogo Khozyaystvo Vostochnoy S i b i r i , (Basic Problems in the Develop-ment of the Fuel Economy of Eastern Siberia), Toplivo i  Topliynaya Promyshlennost1; Razvitiye Proizvoditel'nykh S i l  Vostochnoy S i b i r i . Akademii Nauk SSSR. Moskva. I960, p. 16. 8. V.S. Makarov, Sovremennoye Nakopleniye i Perspektivy i Ispol'zovaniya Loma Chernykh Metallov v Vostochnoy S i b i r i , (Contemporary Accumulation and Future Utilization of Heavy Scrap Metals in Eastern Siberia), Chernaya Metallurgiya  Razvitiye Proizvoditel'nykh S i l . Vostochnoy S i b i r i . Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I960, p. 2 0 3 ; estimated recovery of 90 percent steel from scrap at Western Canada Steel (Gominco), Vancouver, Canada. 9 . Based on consumption of electric power in production of steel at Western Canada Steel, loc. c i t . . ( 5 5 ° KWH per ton of steel using a 16 inch electrode). 10. B.M. Barr, Central Siberia - A New Primary  Industrial Region?. Unpublished Master's Thesis, The University of British Columbia, 1965, pp. 169-174; Narodnoye Khozyaystvo  RSFSR v 1959 Godu. Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik, (Statistical Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, I960, p. 132. 11. A.E. Probst, op_. c i t . . p. 16; information provided to Mr. John Wolforth by MacMillan, Bloedel and Powell River Ltd., March 17, 1964. 12. P.E. Lydolph, op_. c i t . . p. 3 6 9 ; T. Shabad, P.E. Lydolph, The Chemical Industries in the U.S.S.R., Ti.idschrift 227 voor Economische en Sociale Geografie. August, September, 1962, p. 177; Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye S t a t i s t i c h e s -koye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 167. 13. Estimated from, General Review of the Manufacturing  Industry 1961 (31201). Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , pp. 205, 225^ Soviet 1958 estimate of 20,000 to 22,000 KWH per ton was considered too high i n view of technological changes i n the Soviet rubber industry during the Current Seven Year Plan, A.E. Probst, op_. c i t . . p. 16. 14. T. Shabad and P.E. Lydolph, op. c i t . . p. 174; A.E. Probst, l o c . c i t . 15. Based on; estimated cost per grain-combine of 5,000 new rubles obtained from Professor H.E. Ronimois, Department of Slavonic Studies, University of B.C.; 110 KWH consumed per 100 rubles of combine production, A.E. Probst, l o c . c i t . ; annual production of combines i n Krasnoyarsk, Krasnoyarskiy Rabochiy^ February 1, 1964, p. 1. 16. Number of plants compiled from Atlas SSSRt Glavnoye Upravleniye Geodezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Moskva, 1962, pp. 134-5. 17. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo RSFSR v 1962 Godu, op_. c i t . , Moskva, 1963, p. 105. 18. KWH consumption estimated from Canadian production and consumption fi g u r e s , 1961; production of 6 M tons required 207 MKWH. Therefore, 35 KWH per ton was adopted. Cement  Manufacturers 1961 (44204). Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Table 3. I t was assumed that Central Siberian cement plants had s i m i l a r heat requirements as Canadian plants. 19. Russian estimate of 14 percent was reduced to 10 percent; John P. Hardt, Economics of the Soviet E l e c t r i c Power  Industry. PhD. Thesis, Co r n e l l University, 1955, Microfilm, p. 4. 20. Pravda. January 17, 1964, p. 2. 21. O r i g i n a l 1965 estimate was 12 percent but f o r reasons explained previously 10 was used. By 1970, i t i s assumed that the Abakan-Tayshet e l e c t r i c railway w i l l be i n f u l l operation. Therefore, power consumption i n t h i s sector estimated to be 120 percent of 1965 consumption. 22. Total aluminum production by 1970 i s estimated at 228 1.55 M tons (Krasnoyarsk 400,000 tons, Shelekhov, 300,000 tons, Novo-Kuznetsk, 50,000 and Bratsk 800,000 - calculated on the basis of the percentage of t o t a l generation from Bratsk hydro station to be consumed locally, i.e., 16 out of 22 BKWH). Associated industrial complexes in Bratsk area are not intensive users, i.e., pulp and paper and iron ore concentration (excluding Ust-Ilim construction project). With a 19,000 KWH consumption per ton of aluminum produced, i t was estimated that plant capacity would be of the order of 300,000 tons, i.e., twice the capacity of Krasnoyarsk; T. Shabad, op_. c i t . . pp. 20-2. 23. It was assumed that the new Kuzbass plant (4*4 M tons) would be i n f u l l production by 1970. 24. Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta. January 25, 1964, p. 14. 25. B.M. Barr, loc. c i t . 26. Based on new Soviet policy of f e r t i l i z e r produc-tion. 27. It i s estimated that consumption of cement, largely in hydro station construction at Bratsk and Krasnoyarsk, w i l l be shifted to Ust-Ilim and Sayan. 28. Joint Hearings before the Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs and the Committee on Public Works, United States Senate, Eighty-Fifth Congress Second Session. Water  Resource Programs of the United States. Russia and (Red) China. United States Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C, 1953, p. 114. 29. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika; Razvitiye  Proizvoditel'nykh S i l Vostochnoy S i b i r i . (Energy, the Develop-ment of Productive Strength of Eastern Siberia), Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I960, p. 9, D.G. Kotilevsky et a l . , The Development of Power Engineering in the U.S.S.R. During the Period 1956-61. Sixth World Power Conference. Melbourne, 1962, pp. 2000-1; and I.M. Omuprakov, Trends in Development of  the U.S.S.R. Elec t r i f i c a t i o n and New Technics of Power Industry  of the Soviet Union. Moscow. 1963. P. 4. It i s necessary to use several sources since a l l categories are not always separated, i . e . , line loss and station consumption. 30. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, op. c i t . . p. 160. 31. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Energetika, loc. c i t . As 2 2 9 mentioned, r a p i d increase i n generation of e l e c t r i c i t y makes a r e l a t i v e decline probable. 32. Ib i d . 33. This f i g u r e i s based on data i n T. Shabad, The Soviet Aluminum Industry, p_p_. c i t . . p. 12; T. Shabad, News Notes, Soyiet Geography; Review and Translation. December 1961, p. 65; G.B. Cressey. Soviet Potentials A Geographic  Appraisal. Syracuse University Press, 1962, p. 81; and P.E. Lydolph, op. c i t . , p. 364. 34. Figure lowered somewhat from t o t a l U.S.S.R. figure of 64.9 M tons, Promyshlennost 1 SSSR. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Sbornik, Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1964, p. 167, P.E. Lydolph, op. c i t . . p. 355. 35* Calculated from data given i n , Promyshlennost' SSSR, l o c . c i t . 36. This share probably an underestimation. Total production figures from Promyshlennost' SSSR, op_. c i t . . p. 302. 37. J.P. Cole, F.C. German, A Geography of the Soviet  Union; A Background to a Planned Economy. Butterworth, London, 1961, p. 139; T. Shabad, P.E. Lydolph, o£. c i t . , p. 174; estimated t i r e weight derived from information provided by, Bourne and Weir D i v i s i o n of Dunlop Canada Limited, ( i . e . , average weight of t i r e f o r single axle dump trucks - 100 l b s . ) . 38. Production data from, Promyshlennost' SSSR, op_. c i t . . p. 142; and Planovoye Khozyaystvo, August 1964, p. 9. 39• Information on the small share of n i t r a t e f e r t i l i z e r produced using an e l e c t r o l y s i s process, using Canada as an example, from Green Valley F e r t i l i z e r and Chemical Company Limited, Surrey, B.C. Similar s i t u a t i o n assumed to e x i s t i n the Soviet Union. 40. Of t o t a l R.S.F.S.R. production 15 M tons accounted f o r by Central S i b e r i a , see Part I. Production figures from Promyshlennost' SSSR, op_. c i t . . p. 323. 41. Figure based on data i n , Water Resource Programs of the United States, Russia and (Red) China, l o c . c i t . APPENDIX C 230 ESTIMATES OF REGIONAL INSTALLED CAPACITY. 1962. It has been necessary to use an i n d i r e c t method to calculate i n s t a l l e d operating capacities f o r the various regions under consideration, since data on t h i s l e v e l i s not a v a i l a b l e . Annual generation of e l e c t r i c i t y i s given by Republic and Economic region. With t h i s information and the percentage of regional capacity by type (e.g., hydro and thermal), which i n some instances has to be estimated, i t i s possible to obtain an estimate of i n s t a l l e d capacity. The load f a c t o r s used i n these calculations are based on averages f o r the country as a whole, but have been alt e r e d subjectively i n accordance with known regional variations from the mean. While admittedly only an approximation the r e s u l t s obtained have proven cr e d i b l e . PART I—CENTER-VOLGA REGION. In view of the areal extent of the g r i d network, the following economic regions have been included: Central, Central Chernozem, Volga Vyatka, and Povolzhye. Hydro comprised 40 percent of t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity as of January 1, 1962.*" As no other hydro capacity was brought into operation during that year, i t s share of t o t a l i n -s t a l l e d capacity as of December 1962 was assumed to be only 231 35 percent. The figures f o r annual generation of e l e c t r i c i t y by economic region were compiled at t h i s l a t t e r date. Because of the lower average plant fa c t o r of hydro plants, (.5), the share of t o t a l generation i s somewhat l e s s , and has been estimated here at 25 percent. (Volgograd could not have been operating at maximum e f f i c i e n c y - completed 1 9 6 1 ) . Thus thermal capacity assumed to produce 75 percent of t o t a l gen-eration. It has been further assumed that there existed a 65 percent average plant f a c t o r f o r thermal plants.^ Total Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 1 9 6 2 5 86 BKWH .6 Thermal Capacity [86 BK "87607 BKWH) (.75) = 11.3 MKW (.65) 7 Hydro Capacity 86 BKWH) (.25) - 4.9 MKW [37501 (.5) 8 Estimate of Total I n s t a l l e d Capacity 16.2 MKW Percent of National T o t a l 9 16.2 MKW = 19.6 Percent 82.4 MKW PART II—URAL REGION. In t h i s case the Ural economic region corresponds f o r the most part with the areal extent of the g r i d . As of January 1, 1962, hydro stations made up only 9.8 percent of the regional i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y . 1 ^ By year end i t was estimated 232 that hydro accounted f o r no more than 7 percent of t o t a l i n -s t a l l e d capacity. For reasons outlined previously i t has been assumed that hydro accounted f o r not 7 but 5 percent of t o t a l generation. Therefore 95 percent of t o t a l generation from thermal sources; 65 percent plant factor again assumed. Tota l Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 19621 1 66 BKWH Thermal Capacity (66 BKWH) (.95) = 11 MKW (8760) f .cV >5T.12 Hydro Capacity ( 6 6 BKWH) (.5) U ? 6 0 ) f .5) Estimate of Total I n s t a l l e d Capacity 11.753 MKW .753 MKW Percent of National T o t a l 1 ^ 11.753 MKW - 14.2 Percent 82 .4 MKW PART III—SOUTH REGION. In view of the recent extension of the g r i d , Moldavia SSR and North Caucasus economic region as well as the Ukraine SSR, are included i n the S o u t h . 1 4 Hydro plants accounted f o r 18.5 percent of t o t a l i n s t a l l e d capacity f o r the region by January 1, 1962. This percent has not been a l t e r e d since the additional hydro capacity i n the newly integrated power systems i s assumed to be equivalent to the thermal ( a l l plants are of very small s c a l e ) . ^ By assuming that hydro accounts f o r 15 233 percent of generation, one can obtain an approximation of the balance between hydro and thermal i n the South region as i t i s here defined. Since t h i s g r i d has the highest average plant fa c t o r f o r thermal stations, a 70 percent factor has been assumed. Total Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 1 9 6 2 l D 81 BKWH Thermal Capacity (81 BKWH) (.85) = 11.3 MKW (8760) (.7) 17 Hydro Capacity ' (81 BKWH) (.15) = 2.7 MKW (8760) (.5) Estimate of Total I n s t a l l e d Capacity 14 MKW Percent of National Total 14 MKW = 16.9 Percent 82.4 MKW PART IV—NORTHWEST REGION This region includes the Northwest economic region, the B a l t i c Republics of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Byelo-r u s s i a SSR. I t excludes the Murmansk area, since i t i s not 19 interconnected with the Northwest. 7 To determine t o t a l capacity, the capacity of hydro plants f o r the region under consideration has been estimated f i r s t , and on the basis of 20 50 percent plant f a c t o r , annual generation calculated. This was then subtracted from the known annual generation f o r the 234 region as a whole, and using a 55 percent plant f a c t o r capa-21 c i t y of thermal plants was estimated. Shabad reported a 3.5 MKW capacity f o r the Northwest as of January, 1963. This i s too low i n view of the t o t a l generation of e l e c t r i c power from the region from which i n s t a l l e d KW capacity has 22 been computed. Total Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 1962 26 BKWH Thermal Capacity 26 BKWH - 5.4 MKW (3760) (.55) Hydro Capacity 1 MKW 1 MKW Estimate of Total Regional I n s t a l l e d Capacity 6.4 MKW Percent of National T o t a l 2 4 6 MKW — 7.2 Percent 82.4 MKW PART V—CAUCASUS REGION. For t h i s region the absolute shares of hydro and ther-mal capacities have been calculated f i r s t f o r the Azerbaydzhan Republic and then f o r the Georgian and Armenian Republics to-gether. This has been done since 90 percent of the generation of power i n Georgia and Armenia i s from hydroelectric stations, whereas i n Azerbaydzhan 35 percent of e l e c t r i c i t y i s generated by thermal plants. The capacities calculated were then 235 aggregated, A 65 percent plant factor for thermal stations and 50 percent for hydro stations again assumed, Azerbaydzhan Total Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 1962 0 8.3 BKWH Thermal Capacity (8.3 BKWH) ( .85) - 1.26 MKW (8760) ( .65) Hydro Capacity (8.3 BKWH) ( .15) - .29 MKW (8760) (.5) Armenia and Georgia Total Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 1 9 6 2 2 7 6.5 BKWH Thermal Capacity (6.5 BKWH) " C D - .113 MKW (S1760) (.65) Hydro Capacity (6.5 BKWH) ( . 9 ) — 1.33 MKW (8760) (.50) Estimate of Total Installed Capacity 3.02 MKW Percent of National Total 3.02 MKW - 3.7 Percent 82.4 MKW PART VI—CENTRAL ASIA REGION. In determining the installed generating capacity of this region, an estimate of the generation for the part of the Kazakh Republic (the Chimkent area) included, has had to 236 be estimated. Since the g r i d does not yet extend into the 28 Turkmen Republic i t has not been taken into account. For the region as a whole hydro capacity constituted 50 percent of t o t a l (as of the beginning of 1962), but i t has been assumed that hydro accounted f o r only 40 percent of t o t a l 29 generation f o r that year. 7 Plant f a c t o r f o r thermal capacity has been given as 5,200 hours per annum; f o r hydro 4,700 h o u r s . 3 0 T o t a l Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 196231 13.04 BKWH Thermal Capacity (13.04 BKWH) (.65) = 1.4 MKW 5200 Hydro Capacity (13.04 BKWH) (.35) - 1.1 MKW 4700 Estimate of Total I n s t a l l e d Capacity 2.5 MKW » Percent of National Total 2.5 MKW = 3.0 Percent , 82.4 MKW PART VII—NORTHEAST KAZAKHSTAN REGION. Hydro capacities of known plants have fceen aggregated f o r t h i s region, and using a 50 percent plant f a c t o r , the gen-eration f o r 1962 has been estimated. This t o t a l has been deducted from that remaining a f t e r assigning the Chimkent area to the Central Asian region. For calculations a 65 237 percent plant factor for thermal plants has been assumed. Total Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 1962 3 2 10.3 BKWH Hydro Capacity .83 MKW Total Possible Generation (.83 MKW) (8760) (.50) - 3.7 BKWH Thermal Capacity 3 3 10.3 BKWH - 3.7 BKWH - 1.16 MKW f s W ) (.05) Estimate of Total Installed Capacity 1.99 MKW Percent of National Total 1.99 MKW - 2.4 Percent 82.4 MKW PART VIII—THE FAR EAST REGION. It has been estimated that the few scattered, rural hydro stations comprised no more than 2 percent of the 1962 generation of e l e c t r i c i t y . 3 ^ Thermal station plant factor has been notoriously low and i t has been assumed that there has been l i t t l e change from the 1956 figure of 35 percent (up-graded by 5 percent for 1962). 3 5 Only a 25 percent plant factor for rural hydro plants has been used, since these stations are characteristically poorly u t i l i z e d . Total Generation of E l e c t r i c i t y 1962 3° 6.09 BKWH Thermal Capacity (6.09 BKWH) (.98) zz 1.71 MKW (8760) (.40) 238 Hydro Capacity (6.09 BKWH) (.02) = .06 MKW (8760) (.25) Estimate of Total Installed Capacity 1.76 MKW Percent of National Total 1.76 MKW - 2.1 Percent 82.4 MKW PART IX—THE MURMANSK REGION. For this region the capacities of a l l hydro plants have been aggregated and for the one thermal plant, a capacity of . 0 5 MKW has been assumed.3''' Hydro Capacity 3 8 .68 MKW Thermal Capacity .05 MKW Estimate of Total Installed Capacity .73 MKW Percent of National Total .73 MKW - .9 Percent 82.4 MKW REFERENCES: 1. Data from Elektricheskiye Stantsii. November 1963, p. 47. 2. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu. S t a t i s t i -cheskii Ezhegodnik, (Statistical Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1963, p. 162. 3. For operation of Volgograd, see D.G. Zhimerin, Istoriya E l e k t r i f i k a t s i i SSSR. (History of Electr i f i c a t i o n of the U.S.S.R.), Izdatel'stvo Sotsial'no-Ekonomicheskoy Literatury, Moskva, 1962, p. 4°2. 239 4 . Note: 65 percent plant factor just under national average, while the figure for hydro approximately the same. 5 . Figure compiled from data in Narodnoye Khozyaystvo  RSFSR v 1962 Godu. Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik, (Statistical Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 , p. 7 8 . 6 . For explanation of the method, see Appendix A. 7 . This figure corresponds to that obtained i f one sums a l l the known hydro capacity i n the region and then makes allowances for Volgograd not being at maximum efficiency, thereby lessening effective capacity. Sum total 5.7 MKW less Volgograd (rated at 2 . 5 MKW). Data from, Joint Hearings Before the Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs and the Committee on Public Works. United States Senate, Eighty-F i f t h Congress Second Session, Water Resource Programs of the  United States. Russia and (Red) China. United States Govern-ment Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1 9 5 8 , pp. 2 0 3 - 1 1 . 8. Note: In a l l cases - l i k e l y to be underestimated in view of rural capacity generating comparatively l i t t l e power. 9. Total installed capacity from Narodnoye Khozyay-stvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, loc. c i t . 1 0 . Elektricheskiye Stantsii, loc. c i t . At this time ( 1962) the Votkinsk hydro plant ( 1 . 4 MKW) had not been completed and interconnected with the Ural Grid. 1 1 . Figure from, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo RSFSR v 1962 Godu, loc. c i t . 1 2 . Result again complies with known capacity, Joint Hearings. • ., loc. c i t . 1 3 . Figure from, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, op. c i t . , p. 159. 14. See Chapter V. 1 5 . Elektricheskiye Stantsii, loc. c i t . 1 6 . Figures compiled from, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo RSFSR v 1962 Godu, loc. c i t . . and Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, op. c i t . . p. I 6 1 . 17• Note: hydro capacity was estimated at 1 .8 MKW as of 1953, Joint Hearings. . ., l o c . c i t . 13. Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, O J D . c i t . . p. 159. 1 9 . See Chapter V. 2 0 . Data on hydro capacity from, Joint Hearings. . ., l o c . c i t . 2 1 . This i s somewhat under the national average since the thermal plants i n the region are not deemed to have as high a plant factor as those i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d areas of European Russia - e.g., Center, Urals, and Donbass. 2 2 . T. Shabad, News Notes, Soviet Geography: Review  and Translation. January 1 9 6 3 , p. 72. 2 3 . Figures compiled from, Narodnoye Khozyaystvo RSFSR v 1962 Godu, l o c . c i t . . and Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, op. c i t . . p. l 6 l . 2 4 . Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, op. c i t . . p. 159. 2 5 . Data f o r Azerbaydzhan from, Gidrotechnicheskoye  S t r o i t e l ' s t v o . November 1 9 6 3 , p. 4 . 2 6 . Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, op_. c i t . . p. 1 6 1 . 2 7 . Ibid . 2 8 . For discussion see Chapter VI. Of Kazakhstan's 1 3 . 3 BKWH generation, 3 BKWH assumed generated within Central Asia region. 29. Referativny Zhurnal: Elektrotekhnika i Energetika  #E. Elektricheskiye S t a n t s i i . S e t i i Sistemi. Akademiya Nauk SSSR, May 1964, (5 E168J, p. 26. 3 0 . Ibid . 3 1 . Figures from data i n Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1962 Godu, l o c . c i t . 3 2 . Figure r e s u l t of deducting 3 BKWH of 1962 genera-t i o n assigned to the Central Asian region. 241 3 3 . The figu r e f o r hydro capacity includes the Ust-Kamenogorsk, Bukhtarma and Shulba plants; Joint Hear-ings. . ., l o c . c i t . 3 4 . Based on data i n E r i c h T h i e l , The Soviet Far East, ( t r a n s l a t i o n by, Annelie and Ralph M. Rookwood), Methuen, 1 9 5 7 , p. 2 0 5 . 3 5 . Plant factors from Energetika: Razvitiye  Proizvoditel'nykh S i l Vostochnoy S i b i r i , (Energy, The Development of Productive Strength of Eastern S i b e r i a ) , Izdatel'stvo Akademii Nauk SSSR, Moskva, I 9 6 0 , p. 2 5 5 . 3 6 . Narodnoye Khozyaystvo RSFSR v 1962 Godu, l o c . c i t . 3 7 . See E l e k t r i f i k a t s i y a SSSR. 1 : 8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 , ( E l e c t r i -f i c a t i o n of the U.S.S.R.), Glavnoye Upravleniye Godezii i K a r t o g r a f i i , Gosudarstvennogo Geologicheskogo Komiteta SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 6 3 . 3 8 . See, Joint Hearings. . ., l o c . c i t . • APPENDIX D TABLE I TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION OF ELECTRIC POWER HYDROELECTRIC CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION OF ELECTRIC POWER 1913 AND BY YEAR 1921-1965a T o t a l - Hydro I n s t a l l e d Total Hydro Hydro Capacity as Capacity Generation Capacity Production Percent of Year MKW MKWH MKW MKWH Total 1913 1 . 0 9 3 1,945 .020 40 l.B% 1921 1.228 520 .018 10 1 . 4 1922 1 . 2 4 7 775 .019 12 1 . 5 1923 1 . 2 7 9 1,146 .021 20 1.6 1924 1.303 1,562 . 0 2 3 30 1 . 7 1925 1 . 3 9 7 2,925 .026 40 1.8 1926 1.536 3,508 .239 50 5.6 1927 1.693 4 , 2 0 5 . 1 0 3 236 6.0 1928 1.905 5 , 0 0 7 .121 430 6.3 1929 2.296 6,224 .126 462 5.4 1930 2.375 8 368 .128 555 4 . 4 1931 3.972 10,687 .130 592 3.2 1932 4.677 13,542 .504 812 10.7 1933 5.533 16,357 .740 1,250 10.8 1934 6.315 21,011 .840 2,376 13.1 1935 6.923 26,233 .896 3,676 13.7 1936 7.529 32,837 .956 4,013 4,134 12.6 1937 3.235 36,173 1.049 12.7 1933 8.441 39,366^ 1,173 5,084 13.1 1939 9.394 43 ,203 1.295 4 , 7 0 5 13.0 1940 11.193 43,309 1.537 5,113 14.1 1941 6.645 46,671 - — 1945 11.124 43 ,257 1.252 4,341 11.2 1946 12.333 43,571 1.427 6,046 11.5 1947 13.677 56,491 1.357 7,233 9,369 13.5 1943 15.157 66,341 2.191 14.4 1949 17.149 73 ,257 2.793 11,542 16 .3 1950 19.614 91,226 3.213 12,691 11.3 1951 2 2 . 1 1 7 104 ,022 3 . 3 3 3 1 3 , 7 2 2 14,908 15.0 1952 2 5 . 2 5 0 119,116 3.814 11.1 1953 23.602 134 ,325 4 . 5 2 0 19,201 18,561 15.0 1954 32.815 150,195 5.135 15 . 6 1955 37.236 170 ,225 5.996 23,165 16.1 1956 43 .470 191 ,653 3.493 23,934 19.5 1957 43.397 209,633 10.040 39,429 46,437 20.7 1953 53.632 235,351 10.356 20.2 1959 59.142 264,020 12.580 47,560 21.2 I960 66 .721 292 ,274 14.731 50,913 22.1 1961 74.093 327,611 16.366 59,122 22.0 1962 82.461 369 ,275 18.622 71,944 22.5 1963 93.050 412,413 20.330 75,359 22.3 1964 103.000 459,000 — _ 1965 512,000 (planned) a. Data from, I.S. Vasil'kov, Razvitiye Elektroenergetiki SSSR za 40 Let. (Development of E l e c t r i c Power i n the U.S.S.R. During the Past 40 Years), Gozenergoizdat ? Moskva, 1 9 5 7 , p. 9 ; Narodnoye Khozyaystvo SSSR v 1953 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i : Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 5 9 , p. 2 1 5 ; Narodnoye Khozyaystvo  SSSR v 1963 Godu. S t a t i s t i c h e s k i i Ezhegodnik, ( S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbook), Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye p r i Sovete Ministrov SSSR, Moskva, 1 9 6 5 , p. 157A, and E. Shabad, News Notes, Soviet Geography: Review and Translation. A p r i l 1 9 6 5 , ' p. 4 4 . ro 

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