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A simulation study of grain assembly from farm to elevator at six elevator points in Alberta Groundwater, Richard Austin 1968

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A SIMULATION STUDY OF GRAIN ASSEMBLY FROM FARM TO ELEVATOR AT SIX ELEVATOR POINTS IN ALBERTA by RICHARD AUSTIN GROUNDWATER BoSCoj University of Alberta, 1966 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURE i n the Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA August, 1968 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced deg ree a t t he U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I ag r ee t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and S t udy . I f u r t h e r ag ree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y pu r po se s may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h.iis r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . It i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l no t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumb ia Vancouve r 8, Canada Date August 2 6 , 1968 ABSTRACT i The C a n a d i a n g r a i n t r a d e i s f a c e d w i t h the p r o s p e c t o f c h a n g e . I t i s t h e r e f o r e i m p o r t a n t t o a n a l y z e t h e sys tem f o r c u r r e n t e f f i c i e n c y and f o r e f f i c i e n c y under a l t e r n a t i v e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s o f p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s s a l t e r n a t i v e methods o f o p e r a t i n g , and a l t e r n a t i v e r e g u l a t i o n s . T h i s s t u d y i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h a somewhat nar row s u b j e c t , t h a t o f g r a i n movement f r o m the f a r m t o e l e v a t o r . T o t a l c o s t s a s s o c i a -t e d w i t h the a s s e m b l y o f g r a i n were e s t i m a t e d a t s i x e l e -v a t o r p o i n t s : f o r t he c u r r e n t c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s , a f t e r changes i n number and c a p a c i t y o f e l e v a t o r s , a f t e r changes i n f a r m s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y , a f t e r changes i n h a u l i n g d i s t a n c e and t r u c k s i z e , and a f t e r changes i n e l e v a t o r l o c a t i o n . The t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n was u s e d , and a model was c o n s t r u c t e d t o p r o v i d e a s i m u l a t o r o f t he s y s t e m . The mode l was by n e c e s s i t y , s i m p l e , i n c o r p o r a t i n g d a t a t o r e p r e s e n t c r o p p r o d u c t i o n , f a r m s t o r a g e c o s t , g round s t o r a g e c o s t , h a u l i n g c o s t , e l e v a t o r c o s t , and r a i l s h i p m e n t s . Each change n e c e s s i t a t e d an a d d i t i o n a l computer r u n t o d e t e r -mine t he c o s t s r e s u l t i n g f r o m the c h a n g e . I t was c o n c l u d e d t h a t a mode l u s i n g t h e t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n c o u l d be c o n s t r u c t e d f o r t h e e n t i r e g r a i n m a r k e t i n g sys tem t o c a p t u r e the e s s e n c e o f t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s . Ten e x p e r i m e n t s were c o n d u c t e d t o e s t i m a t e t he c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e c o n f i g u r a t i o n s . The r e s u l t i n g e s t i m a t e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t the c u r r e n t c o n f i g u r a t i o n i s i n e f f i c i e n t and t h a t l o w e r c o s t s wou ld o c c u r f o l l o w i n g ? (1) r e d u c t i o n i n t he number o f e l e v a t o r s a t e a c h p o i n t , (2) a r e d u c t i o n i n the number o f p o i n t s , (3) a r e d u c t i o n i n f a r m s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y , and (4) by an i n c r e a s e i n f a r m t r u c k s i z e . The c o s t o f a s s e m b l i n g g r a i n w i t h t he c u r r e n t c o n f i g u r a t i o n was e s t i m a t e d t o be 24.3$ c e n t s p e r b u s h e l . I t i s p o s s i b l e g i v e n the v a l i d i t y o f t he mode l t o r educe t h e s e c o s t s t o 13.76 c e n t s pe r b u s h e l by d e c r e a s i n g the number o f e l e v a t o r s a t each p o i n t , r e d u c i n g f a r m s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y j and i n c r e a s i n g f a r m t r u c k s i z e . The comp le te r e s p o n s e s u r f a c e was no t mapped b e -cause o f t he g r e a t number o f p o t e n t i a l p e r m u t a t i o n s , hence o n l y t e n d i s c r e t e e x p e r i m e n t s were c o m p l e t e d . However , i n d i c a t i o n s were t h a t one o f t he more i m p o r t a n t ways t o a c h i e v e a l o w e r p e r b u s h e l c o s t o f a s s e m b l y i s t o i n c r e a s e t h e volume of g r a i n t h r o u g h a f i x e d c a p a c i t y c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s y s t e m . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o examine t h e s e r e -s u l t s i n te rms o f t he l i m i t e d scope o f t h e s t u d y f o r no t a l l c o s t s were a c c o u n t e d . That i s , t h e r e may be e x t e r n a l c o s t s t o t he r e s t o f t he economy due t o i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I o INTRODUCTION© D O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O . O I S t a t e m e n t o f t h e p r o b l e m « o . o o o o o o o o o . o o o . o o 3 Impor tance o f t he problem,, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 . Hy p O " t h . 6 S 1 S o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 5 Ob J S C t l V S S o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o O o o o o o o o o o o 5 C X % i " t © r i 3 . o O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Q O O O O O O O © O C O T j O o o o o o o o o o D o o o e o o o o o o o o o OO O o O O O O O O O O O O O L i m i t c l t i O I l S o o O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O o O O O O O O O O O O O 11 DG jTini*t 1 OnS O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O U o RESOURCE ALLOCAHONo 0 O o O O O O O o O O O O O o O O O © 0 0 0 0 0 0 < > 15 Resou rce a l l o c a t i o n * o o o 0 o o o D o o 0 o o o o o o 0 o o o o o 16 W e l f a r e e c o n o m i c s 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 17 illff i C l e nC y o o o o o o o o » o o o o o o o O o © o o o o o o o o o o o O o o A s s u m p t i o n s and p r o b l e m s o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 1° I I I . THE GRAIN TRADE I N WESTERN C A N A D A o . • . . . • . . . • • . 2 3 G r a i n M a r k e t i n g i n t h e H i s t o r y of W e s t e r n ^ Canada O o o o © © o o o o o o o o 6 o o o « o » o « © o S e c t o r s I n v o l v e d i n the G r a i n M a r k e t i n g S y S t e m o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o A B r i e f Resume o f t h e A c t i v i t i e s o f t he C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d o o o o o o o o e o o o o o o a o o o o 33 O r g a n i z a t x o n o o o o o o o o o o o o o o © o o o o o o o o o o o o o 34 H a n d l i n g a g r e e m e n t , 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = 0 34 I n i t i a l and f i n a l payments e , o . . » , « o » o o » » 35 D e l i v e r y quo tas o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 36 G r a i n M o v e m e n t 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 M a r k e t i I*JVg ooooooaoooooooooooooooooooooooo 4^*3 S a l e prOmOtiOno o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o J^ f-A* F u n c t i o n s o f t he Board o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s 1 o r Canada o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o A" 3 I n s p e c t i o n and g r a d i n g , . . . . . , >o..o 45 W e i g h i n g o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o S t a t i s t i c s d i v i s i o n © o . o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Government t e r m i n a l s . . . o o o o o o o o o o o o o o . . . 47 I V . SIMULATION AND THE GRAIN ASSEMBLY M O D E L . . . . . . . 49 S i m u l a t i o n - A d e f i n i t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Mode ls and s i m u l a t i o n . . . . . . 0 0 0 . 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 Advan tages o f s i m u l a t i o n . . . . . . . . o . » . . . . . . . . 54 L o c a t i o n o f s i m u l a t i o n s u r f a c e , , . . . , . . . . . . . 56 S i m u l a t i o n f o r g r a i n a s s e m b l y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 The g r a i n a s s e m b l y m o d e l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . » . • <> 63 i v CHAPTER PAGE V. COST AND DATA ESTIMATES FOR THE SIMULA-TION MODEL ooooooc.oooooooooooooooo CrOp PrOdUCtiOno ooooooooooooooooooooooooooo y l Total production . . . . . . . . . . . o s . . . . . . . . . . y l Time of harvesting., o o o . o . o o o « o o o o o o . o o . o ° ° Method of aggregation O O O O O O Q O O O O O O O O O O O O 86 Farm Storageooooooooooooooooooooo.ooooo.oo. General considerations O o o o o o o o o o o o o o o . . o 93 Farm storage advantages . . . . . . . . . o . . » . . . . 94 Disadvantages of farm s t o r a g e , . , . o . . . . o o 95 Farm storage c o s t S o o o . o o o o o . o o o o o o o o o o o . Determination of c o s t s , . . . . . . . , , . . . . . ^ . SuiTlinSry* ooooooeooooooeoeoooooooooooooooo Temporary Grain Storageoooooooooooooooooooo Ijflt r OdllC t i OH o ooooooooooooooooooooooooooo "^^ "^  Costs of ground storage „ . . . „ , 0 o . . <>.o.... Farm to Country Eleavtor Hauling Costs...,,. 125 Trucking costsoooooooooooooooooooooooooo ^ D l S t a n C e O O O O O O Q Q O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O ' JRail S hljpme n t S oooooooooooooooooooooooeooooo 13 A" Method oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo J Handling and Storage Cost i n Country EXeVatOrS O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Viewpoint O O O O O O P O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 2 Growth and development of country elevators o o o o o o o o © o o o o o o o o o o o o Cost studies i n the U.S.A. and Canada... 149 Data ooooooooooooaoooooooooooeooooooooooo 1 ^  A* Empirical resultsooooooooooooooooooooooo 15^ Estimation of cost f u n c t i o n s o D e 0 « • o » 0 o o o 15$ Empirical results i n the simulation mOdelo ooooooooooooooooeoooooooo 1^6 VI o RESULTS ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo 1*73 Experiment O n e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 173 Expe riment T w o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1$1 Exp eriment Three ooooooooooooooooooooooooooo 185 Experiment Fouro.oooo.ooooooooo.ooooooooooo 190 Experiment F i v e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 194-V CHAPTER P A G E EXPe jfXniG nt Sl^Co O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Q O O O O O O O O O O O • o o E x p e r i m e n t Severio 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EXpG rimG nt EXgllt ooooooooooooooooooooooooooo E x p e r i m e n t N ine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 211 E x p e r i m e n t T s n o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 VII. SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER R.ES EARC H 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 222 V I I Io B IBL IO G R A P H " Y " 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 230 I X . APPENDIX I - FORTRAN PROGRAM FOR THE SIMULA-TION MODEL OF GRAIN A S S E M B L Y . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 X o A P PENDIJC I I — TABLES ooooooooooooooooooooooeooo 2 Af. ^  v i L I S T OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1. Gra I H ContjTOl SyStOnio ©ooooooooooooooooooooc 32 2A, G r a i n S t o r a g e - F i e l d t o S t o r a g e . . . . , , . . . . , 6 4 2B. Ground S t o r a g e t o C o m m e r c i a l S t o r a g e , , . . . , . 6 5 2C„ B i n S t o r a g e t o Commerc ia l S t o r a g e . . , . . . . . , , 6 6 3 , S h o r t - r u n Ave rage Cos t Cu rves and Economy-o f - S c a l e Cu rve o f Farm S t o r a g e . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 4 , Ground S t o r a g e as a C o s t F u n c t i o n o f Time 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 121 5 . H y p o t h e t i c a l B o u n d a r i e s o f t he S i x A r e a s f o r Use i n the S i m u l a t i o n IVIOCiel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 132 6 . The Ten E x p e r i m e n t s and E s t i m a t e d Cos t P e r B u s h e l f o r t he R e g i o n o f G r a i n Assemb l y as De te rm ined by t he S i m u l a t i o n ]V[0 Cieloooaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo 221 v i i L I S T OF TABLES TABLE PAGE Io Time Trend of T o t a l R e c e i p t s of a l l G r a i n s a t C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r s 1 9 4 3 - 4 4 t o l^ ^A'™^^ ooooooooooooooooooooeoooooooooooooooo 73 I I . Time S e r i e s o f A c r e a g e s 1955~56 t o 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 . . 75 I I I . Means and S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n s o f E l e v a t o r R e c e i p t s f o r Each P o i n t 1943 t o 1 9 6 5 . . . . . . . . 77 I V . Crop A c r e a g e s by P e r c e n t o f T o t a l A c r e s Seeded t o F i v e Grainsooooooooooooooooooooooo 7^ V . P e r c e n t a g e o f T o t a l Crop E n t e r i n g t he Com-m e r c i a l HJ l e v a t o r System© 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 * 0 0 c^l V I . C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Between R e c e i p t s and Y i e l d s ( B a r l e y , O a t s , Wheat , F l a x and R y e ) , 1956-57 t o 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 0.00 82 V I I . C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s Between P r o p o r -t i o n o f G r a i n E n t e r i n g the E l e v a t o r and T o t a l P r o d u c t i o n f o r the S i x A r e a s 1935™*36 t o 19^A*"™^3ooooooooooooooooooooooooo© £^A" V I I I . Time Trend o f P r o p o r t i o n o f G r a i n E n t e r i n g t he E l e v a t o r as Compared t o T o t a l P r o d u c -t i o n f o r t he Y e a r s 1955-56 t o 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 . . . . . . . 85 I X . B a r l e y and Oats R e c e i p t s (as T o t a l B u s h e l s B a r l e y and Oa ts ) i n Census D i v i s i o n 7 f l 5 -19 5 5 ™" 5 6 t o l^^A'"*^^000 0 0 0 0 0 0 o o o o o o o o p o o o o o c > 0 0 3^ X . Average P r o p o r t i o n o f Compos i te Crop H a r -v e s t e d E a c h Week, F i r s t 15 Weeks o f C rop Y e a r , A v e r a g e s f o r P e r i o d 1955 t o I 9 6 4 . . . . . . 87 X I . Compar i son o f R e c e i p t s w i t h Normal D i s t r i -b u t i o n and w i t h N e g a t i v e D i s t r i b u t i o n -19A'3/A'A' tO 19^A*/63°ooo 00 oooo 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 92 X I I I . I nves tmen t Cos t P e r B u s h e l S t o r a g e C a p a c i t y o f Wooden, Round S t e e l , and Quonset B u i l d i n g s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 102 X I V , Farm H a n d l i n g Equ ipment C o s t s . . . . . . . „ . . . . . . . 105 X V . T o t a l A n n u a l Cos t pe r B u s h e l f o r G r a i n S t o r a g e i n 3 , 0 0 0 , 5 , 0 0 0 , 2 5 , 0 0 0 B u s h e l Round S t e e l B i n s and 2 0 , 0 0 0 B u s h e l Q u o n s e t , 3/4 F u l l and F u l l a t C o m p l e t i o n o f H a r v e s t . . 107 v i l i TABLE PAGE XVI. XVII. XVIII, XIX. XX. XXI. XXII. XXIII, XXIV. XXV. XXVI. XXVII. XXVIII, XXIX. XXX. Farm Storage Capacity Estimated for Each Area and Bin Capacity Used for Grain to be Sold Through Country Elevator... Fixed Farm Storage Cost by Area O O O Q O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Farm Storage Capacity Per Potential Bushel Production (Wheat, Oats, Barley, Flax, and Rye) for Ten Year Average of Crops for 1 9 ^ 5 O O O O O O O O O D O O O O O O O O O O Q O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Q Average Crop Year End Carryover on Farms of Wheat, Oats, Barley, Flax, and Rye Per Crop Acre of Same Year (1955-64) ooooooooooo Total Carryover of-Wheat, Oats, Barley, Flax, and Rye as Estimated i n Each of the Six Regions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ten Year Average Farm Storage Capacity Available for Crop Production f o r the I n d i v i d u a l Pointsoooooooooooooooeooooooeooo Grain Losses i n Temporary Grain Storage.... Canadian Wheat Board Payments f o r #1 Northern Wheat, §2 Canadian Western Oats, and #3 Canada 6-Row Barley (Total R e a l i z e d Price)«ooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Costs of Grain Deterioration f or Ground StOX*age ooooooooooooooooooooooeooooooooooooo Minimum Distance Between Delivery PointS i n IVllleS oooeooooooooooooooooooeooooo Midpoint Distance Between Delivery POintS i n I\^ll€S oooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Dimensions of Rectangle and Average Dis-tance by Delivery Point I 9 6 5 . oeooooooooooooo Proportion of Annual Shipments Made Each Week f o r One Elevator Company, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Relative Frequency of Exogenous R a i l Shipments from an Expected Value of One.. Means, Standard Deviations, and Correla-t i o n Coefficients of Annual Receipts by Station and Shipments for One Elevator Company 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 to 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 110 111 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 4 1 1 6 00000 123 123 129 129 130 137 138 141 TABLE XXXI. XXXII. XXXIII. XXXIV. XXXV. XXXVI. XXXVII, XXXVIII, XXXIX. XL. XLI. XLII. XLIII. XL IV. XLV. XLVI. XLVII. Means and Standard Deviations of Total and Average Cost by Stratum and Cost 0 C i t 6 gOry O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Q O O O Means and Standard Deviations of Capacity, Throughput, and Throughput/Capacity S t r cL"fc\lin O O O O O O O O O O O O O Q O O O O O O O O O O O Q O O O O O O O O Estimation of Total Cost and Average Cost Equations by Size of Elevator. Evaluated Rep lacemen t Costsooooooooooooooooooooeoooooo Estimates of Average Cost by Size Strata Using Replacement Costs ooooooooooooo Elevator Capacities by Aff i l i a t e d Companies by Location, 1965. 'ooooooooooooooooooooooooo©* Total Elevator Capacity by Affi l i a t e d C o m p a n i e s O O O O O O Q O O O O O O O O O O Q O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Elevator Capacity vs. 10 Year Average Receipts and 10 Year Crop Potential PX* 0(j. U.C 11 On O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Total Stocks in Store of A l l Grains on cJuily 3 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Assumed Values of Design Variables for the I n i t i a l Estimate of Grain Assembley Costs... Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained for the Six Areas (Experiment 1)............ Accumulated Total for Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 1)„... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained for the Six Areas (Experiment 2)............ Accumulated Totals for Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 2).... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 2)... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained for the Six Areas (Experiment 3)... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accumulated Totals for Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 3 ) • • ° ° 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ix PAGE 157 159 160 165 167 169 170 171 175 178 179 180 182 183 184 187 188 TABLE XLVIII, XL IX. LI. L I I . L I U . LIV. LV. LVI. LVII. LVIII. LIX. LX. LXI. LXII. LXIII. LXIV. LXV. LXVI. LXVII, Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 3) o o o o o o o o o o X PAGE 189 Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained for the Six Areas (Experiment 4)............. 191 Accumulated Totals for Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 4) O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 4) o o o o o o O o o o o o o o 192 193 Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained fo r the Six Areas (Experiment 5)...........= 195 Accumulated Totals for Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 5) Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 5) e o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o e o o O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained for the Six Areas (Experiment 6) O O O O O O O O O O O Accumulated Totals f o r Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 6) O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 6) O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained for the Six Areas (Experiment 7) O O O O O O O O O O O O Accumulated Totals f o r Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 7) O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 7) O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained for the Six Areas (Experiment 8). O O O O O O O O O O Accumulated Totals f o r Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 8) O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 8) O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Summary of the Averages (15 years) Obtained for the Six Areas (Experiment 9) Accumulated Totals f o r Grain Assembly of the Six Areas (Experiment 9).. Cost Per Bushel (Experiment 9) O O O 0 o o O O O O O O O O O O O O Summary of the Averages (15 years) Ob-tained for the Six Areas (Experiment 10) o o o o 196 197 199 200 201 203 204 205 208 209 210 213 214 215 218 TABLE L X V I I I . LXIX. LXX. LXXIo L X X I I . L X X I I I . LXXIV. LXXV. LXXVI. LXXVIIo L X X V I I I , LXXIX. LXXX o LXXXI. L X X X I I . L X X X I I I , LXXXIV. Accumu la ted T o t a l s f o r G r a i n Assemb ly o f t he S i x A r e a s (Expe r imen t 10) C o s t Pe r B u s h e l ( E x p e r i m e n t 10) 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O O O O O O O O A c r e a g e s De te rm ined f r o m C a n a d i a n Wheat Boa rd P e r m i t Books 1955-1956 t o I 9 6 5 -1966, Grande P r a i r i e , ooooooooooooooooooooooo A c r e a g e s De te rm ined f r o m C a n a d i a n Wheat Boa rd P e r m i t Books 1955-1956 t o 1965-1966, D i m s d a l e . . . oooooooooooooooooeoooooooooooooo A c r e a g e s De te rm ined f r o m C a n a d i a n Wheat Boa rd P e r m i t Books 1955-1956 t o 1965-1966, Wembley, O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O A c r e a g e s De te rm ined f r o m C a n a d i a n Wheat Boa rd P e r m i t B o o k s , 1955-56 t o I965-1966, H u a l l e n , . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 * 9 0 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O A c r e a g e s De te rm ined f r o m C a n a d i a n Wheat Boa rd P e r m i t Books 1955-1956 t o I965-I966. B e a v e r l o d g e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0000 000 000000 0000 o A c r e a g e s De te rm ined f r o m C a n a d i a n Wheat Boa rd P e r m i t Books 1955-56, 1965-1966, Hythe O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Q Q O O O A c r e s , Number o f P e r m i t s , Average Farm S i z e , and S e c t i o n s by D e l i v e r y P o i n t , 1965 Y i e l d s by Census D i v i s i o n s , 1956-1965 ( A l b e r t a ) Oats 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Y i e l d s by Census D i v i s i o n s , 1956-1965 ( A l b e r t a ) B a r l e y . . 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Y i e l d s by Census D i v i s i o n s , 1956-1965 ( A l b e r t a ) Wheat, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Y i e l d s by Census D i v i s i o n s , 1956-1965 ( A l b e r t a ) F l a x s e e d , R a p e s e e d , F a l l Rye Spik ing Rye O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O P e r c e n t C rop H a r v e s t e d Week—1953 t o 1965.. E s t i m a t e d C a p i t a l C o s t s by Farm G r a n a r i e s . . E s t i m a t e d Y e a r l y Charge f o r Wooden B i n i n AUDer ta 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P r i c e o f S t e e l B i n s a t C a l g a r y , A l b e r t a . ( 19^7 ) o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o « o X I PAGE 219 220 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 264 265 266 x i i TABLE LXXXVIo LXXXVII. LXXXVIIIo LXXXIXo XC XCIo XCII. X C I I I . XCIV. xcv, XCVIc XCVII. Grain Receipts at Country Elevators (Census D i s t r i c t Number Fifteen) ooooooooooo XCVIII. XCVIX< Commercial Grain Hauling Rates by Truck ( J\.lb Q r*"fc Si ) 1967 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Commercial Hauling Charges by Truck from Farm to Commercial Elevator - Dawson C r e e lc A r e c i o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Commercial Truck Rental Rates Farm Trucking Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 oooooooooooooooooaoo Derivation of Formula for Calculation of Average Distances for the Simulation Model, Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators Valued at Replacement Cost ( A l l Elevators), Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost for Elevators (Less than 40,000 Bushels Capacity) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators (40,000 to 59,999 Bushels Capacity) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost for Elevators (60,000 to 99,999 Bushels Capacity) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost for Elevators (Greater than 100,000 Bushels Capacity)..„, Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators Valued at Standardized Book Cost ( A l l Elevators) ooooooooooooooooooooooooo o o o o o Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators Valued at Standardized Book Cost (Less than 40,000 Bushels Capacity) ooooooooooooo Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators Valued at Standardized Book Cost (40,000 to 59,999 Bushels Capacity). PAGE 268 269 270 271 272 273 275 277 278 279 280 282 284 285 x i i i TABLE PAGE Co Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators Valued at Standardized Book Cost ( 6 0 , 0 0 0 to 99,999 Bushels Capacity......„.. 287 CI. Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators (Greater than 100,000 Bushels Capacity).... 288 CII„ Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators Valued at Operating Costs ( A l l Elevators).. 289 CIII. Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators Valued at Operating Costs (Less than 40,000 Bushels Capacity),.,., ,,.»..,,.... o, 291 CIV. Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost for Elevators Valued at Operating Costs (40,000 to 59,999 Bushels Capacity),. 292 CV. Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost f o r Elevators Valued at Operating Costs (60,000 to 99 s999 Bushels Capacity).... o.oo.oooo. 293 CVI. Summary Tabulations of Regression Analysis of Total and Average Cost for Elevators Valued at Operating Costs (Greater than 100,000 Bushels Capacity)...............,.. 294 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I w i s h t o thank D r . G . R . W i n t e r , C h a i r m a n , Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , under whose s u p e r v i s i o n t h i s p r o j e c t was u n d e r t a k e n , f o r h i s a d v i c e and c o n s t r u c t i v e comments d u r i n g t he r e s e a r c h , and f o r h i s .gu idance i n the p r e p a r a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s . G r a t e f u l acknowledgement i s a l s o e x t e n d e d t o t he o t h e r members o f my t h e s i s c o m m i t t e e ; D r . D . P . Ormrod , D i v i s i o n o f P l a n t S c i e n c e , P r o f e s s o r L . M . S t a l e y , Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E n g i n e e r i n g , and D r . J . C . C r a g g , Depar tment o f E c o n o m i c s . The a u t h o r i s a l s o g r a t e f u l t o t he many p e o p l e i n t he g r a i n i n d u s t r y and a g r i c u l t u r e i n d u s t r y who gave t h e i r f u l l c o o p e r a t i o n , mak ing t h i s s t u d y p o s s i b l e . I am v e r y much i n d e b t e d t o O r e s t W a s i u t a and L a r r y Kane a t t he U n i v e r s i t y o f A l b e r t a who g a t h e r e d much o f t he d a t a , and t o A l H a s k e l l who worked on t he GPSS I I I m o d e l . I w i s h t o t h a n k Dave Wei and Ann B r a i l s f o r d who d i d t he computer programming a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . S p e c i a l t h a n k s t o Mary MacGregor and Gay le Thompson who t y p e d t h i s t h e s i s and t o my w i f e , S u s a n , who p l a y e d no s m a l l p a r t i n t he c o m p l e t i o n o f the s t u d y . I w i s h t o t h a n k the M a c M i l l a n f a m i l y who p r o v i d e d t he K l i n k F e l l o w s h i p e n a b l i n g my s t u d y a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . CHAPTER I 1 INTRODUCTION Introduction. The broad issue which faces the Canadian grain trade i s resource a l l o c a t i o n . The four a l l o c a t i o n de-cisio n s are (1) what goods and services are to be produced, (2) how w i l l the goods and services be produced, (3) how w i l l the goods and services be di s t r i b u t e d i n space, and (4) how w i l l the d i v i s i o n of an economy?s resources i n time between future and current consumption be made. The manner i n which a l l the complex decisions are simultaneously and continuously made and the way they interact to determine the r e s u l t i n g pattern of resource a l l o c a t i o n i s the key feature of economic l i f e . The current a l l o c a t i o n of resources i n the grain trade was l a r g e l y determined i n the f i r s t h a l f of the twentieth century. The present boxcars, r a i l r o a d branch l i n e s , grading system, marketing i n s t i t u t i o n s , f r e i g h t rates, country eleva-t o r s , and farm resource a l l o c a t i o n structures have been i n -her i t e d . Advances i n technology have made many of the physical f a c i l i t i e s appear obsolete^, r e s u l t i n g i n request f o r new i n s t i t u t i o n s , regulations, and attitudes. In conjunction with the obsolescence of physical f a c i l i t i e s , changes i n i n t e r -national trade and the domestic economy may invalidate the grain marketing status quo. This study i s concerned with the movement of grain from farmer to country elevator, that i s , with the costs involved "^D. Suderman, "The Price of Obsolescence", The Family Herald. June 13, 1968, p.18. 2 i n t h e a s s e m b l y o f g r a i n , and t h e f a c i l i t i e s t h a t wou ld be r e q u i r e d t o move t h e g r a i n . G r a i n a s s e m b l y f r o m fa rm t o e l e v a t o r i s o n l y a s m a l l p a r t o f t h e t o t a l s ys tem compos ing t h e g r a i n t r a d e , bu t i t i s a v e r y I m p o r t a n t s t e p i n t h e m a r k e t i n g s y s t e m . The f a r m e r b e a r s a l a r g e s h a r e o f t h e c o s t s a c c r u i n g t o t h e s y s t e m , and t h u s any improvements o r changes i n t h e sys tem w i l l r e f l e c t w h o l l y o r p a r t i a l l y upon t h e f a r m e r „ U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e o v e r a l l s ys tem must be examined i n i t s e n -t i r e t y , i n a manner t h a t c a p t u r e s t h e e s s e n c e o f t h e s i m u l -t a n e o u s , c o n t i n u o u s , and i n t e r a c t i n g d e c i s i o n s made i n t h e s y s t e m . The i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s w i t h i n t h e sys tem a r e o b v i o u s , and i n c a p t u r i n g t h i s f u n d a m e n t a l a s p e c t , any e x t e r n a l i t i e s can be examined f o r t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f i n t e r n a l i z a t i o n by 2 t h e sys tem . The movement o f g r a i n t o t h e West C o a s t has been e x a m i n e d , w i t h recommenda t ions a s s e r t i n g t h a t c l o s e r c o -o p e r a t i o n w i t h i n a f l e x i b l e sys tem o f c o n t r o l s f o r g r a i n move-ment f r o m t h e p r a i r i e s t o t h e s h i p s c o u l d e l i m i n a t e most o f 3 t h e r e c e n t g r a i n e x p o r t p r o b l e m s a t t h e West C o a s t . However , n o t o n l y i s a t e c h n o l o g i c a l e x a m i n a t i o n r e q u i r e d , t h a t i s , an e x a m i n a t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n e f f i c i e n c y , bu t a l s o r e q u i r e d i s an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s , s a l e s p o l i c i e s , and t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f b o t h t h e g r a i n t r a d e and a g r i c u l t u r e . T h i s i s t h e b r o a d f ramework i n w h i c h t h e g r a i n t r a d e c o u l d be e x a m i n e d . I t i s p e r h a p s u n w i e l d y , bu t s u b s t a n t i a l a n a l y s i s 2 C o m p e n s a t i o n i s a d i f f i c u l t p r o b l e m i n w e l f a r e economics and t h i s has no t been m e n t i o n e d i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n . 3 K a t e s , P e a t , M a r w i c k and C o . , West Coas t Commodity T r a n s p o r t a -t i o n S t u d y , P a r t 1: The T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and Handling*"~of G r a i n ~ • S h o r t - T e r m Recommendat ions ( C a n a d a : D e p ? t . o f T r a n s p o r t , 196?), p p . 1-11. 3 o f a l l a s p e c t s o f t h e sys tem i s l i k e l y t o be v e r y p r o d u c -t i v e s i n c e o n l y t h r o u g h a n a l y s i s can ma jo r e r r o r be a v o i d e d . As t h i s s t u d y i n c o r p o r a t e s o n l y a s m a l l p a r t o f t h e sys tem i n a manner t o r e p r e s e n t t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s , s u b o p t i m i z a -t i o n i s l i k e l y t o o c c u r „ S e c o n d l y , t h e t e c h n i q u e n e i t h e r s e e k s an opt imum n o r c o u l d one be su re o f o b t a i n i n g an op t imum^. The a s s e m b l y o f g r a i n f rom f i e l d t o e l e v a t o r , a l -t h o u g h a s m a l l segment o f t h e t o t a l s y s t e m , i s v e r y complex and i t s a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e s many a s s u m p t i o n s . The s t u d y i s o r g a n i z e d t o p r o v i d e a d i s c u s s i o n o f some o f t h e i m p o r t a n t i n s t i t u t i o n s i n v o l v e d , t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n -v o l v e d i n s t u d y i n g s u c h a l a r g e s y s t e m , and t o i n d i c a t e t h e n a t u r e o f t h e mode l and d a t a u s e d . The r e s u l t s , howeve r , a r e c o n d i t i o n a l on t h e a s s u m p t i o n s , d a t a , and t e c h n i q u e s u s e d . S t a t e m e n t o f t h e P r o b l e m . C a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s w i l l be made i n t h e g r a i n i n d u s t r y , and c o n s e q u e n t l y p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s f o r t h e movement o f g r a i n w i l l c h a n g e . The move-ment o f g r a i n f r o m fa rms t o e x p o r t p o s i t i o n a t l e a s t c o s t r e q u i r e s e f f i c i e n t g r a i n h a n d l i n g sys tems and d e t e r m i n a t i o n 'There a r e two p rob lems - - o n e economic and one s t a t i s t i c a l - -w h i c h a r e d e a l t w i t h by t h e f o l l o w i n g a u t h o r s . K, L a n c a s t e r and R . G . L i p s e y , "The G e n e r a l Theo ry o f Second B e s t " , Rev iew o f Economic S t u d i e s ( V o l XX IV ( 1 ) , No . 6 3 ) , p . 1 1 ; W . C . C o c h r a n and G . M . C o x , E x p e r i m e n t a l D e s i g n s , Second E d i t i o n (New Y o r k : J o h n W i l e y and S o n s , I n c . , 1 9 5 7 ) , P P . 3 3 5 - 3 6 9 . 4 o f an i d e a l sys tem r e q u i r e s t h e p r e d i c t i o n o f f u t u r e r e q u i r e -m e n t s ^ . The e n t i r e sys tem s h o u l d be examined i n a manner t h a t i n c l u d e s a l l i n t e r a c t i o n s . A s m a l l e r p r o b l e m was u n d e r t a k e n i n t h i s t h e s i s . The p r o b l e m was t o examine t h e a s s e m b l y o f g r a i n f r o m f a r m t o e l e v a t o r and d e t e r m i n e t h e c o s t s o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y when changes c o u l d be made i n e l e v a t o r c a p a c i t y , e l e v a t o r l o c a t i o n , f a r m s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y , h a u l i n g d i s t a n c e , t r u c k s i z e , and r a i l s h i p m e n t s . Impo r t ance o f t h e P r o b l e m . C o n t e m p l a t e d changes i n t h e g r a i n t r a d e j u s t i f y a c a r e f u l e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e sys tem f r o m an economic v i e w p o i n t t o p r e v e n t r e p e t i t i o n o f h i s t o r i c a l m i s t a k e s . I n o r d e r t o make b e t t e r d e c i s i o n s t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s among t h e economic u n i t s s h o u l d be a n a l y z e d i n c l u d i n g b o t h 6 p r i v a t e and s o c i a l c o s t s and b e n e f i t s . A f l e x i b l e and e f f i c i e n t m a r k e t i n g s t r u c t u r e wou ld enhance t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r e x p o r t s , i n c r e a s e ne t r e t u r n s t o p r o d u c e r s , and p e r m i t t h e r a i l w a y s and t h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h e sys tem t o o p e r a t e on 7 a sound economic b a s i s . The t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n i s h e r e a d v o c a t e d f o r t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y . S i m u l a t i o n i s t h o u g h t u s e f u l because t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e sys tem can be i n c o r -p o r a t e d , and a l t e r n a t i v e p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s can be e x p l o r e d . ^ R . J . K r i s t j a n s o n , ' " ' I n t r o d u c t o r y Remarks ' ' , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Workshop G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Commit tee ( M i n a k i , S e p t . 6 - 8 , 1 9 6 7 ) , p . 2 . ^ C . G i l s o n , "The Economic E f f e c t o f R a i l Abandonment i n t h e P r a i r i e P r o v i n c e s " , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e S i x t h N a t i o n a l Farm and  B u s i n e s s Fo rum, The W i n n i p e g Chamber o f Commerce, Ma rch 2 5 - 6 , 1 9 6 5 , P P . 4 - 1 5 . 7 E f f i c i e n c y i n t h i s c o n t e x t r e f e r s t o e f f i c i e n c y o f p r o d u c t i o n w h i c h i s t h e a s s e m b l y o f f a c t o r s o f p r o d u c t i o n i n s u c h a manner as t o p roduce t h e g r e a t e s t p o s s i b l e o u t p u t a t l e a s t c o s t . 5 One component o f t h e sys tem i s t h e movement o f g r a i n f r om f a r m t o e l e v a t o r where a s i m u l a t i o n mode l m igh t be u s e f u l t o e s -t i m a t e t h e consequences o f c h a n g i n g t h e p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s . The c o n c e p t o f e f f i c i e n c y i s used f o r e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e s y s t e m . A r e d u c t i o n o f one cen t p e r b u s h e l when c o n s i d e r -i n g t h e movement o f many m i l l i o n s o f b u s h e l s p e r y e a r i s o f s i g n i f i c a n t m a g n i t u d e . I n t h e a r e a c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y , s u c h a s a v i n g wou ld mean a p p r o x i m a t e l y 27 t h o u s a n d d o l l a r s p e r y e a r . H y p o t h e s e s . The h y p o t h e s e s used i n t h i s s t u d y w e r e : (1) a . The t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n p r o v i d e s a t o o l f o r t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y f r o m f a r m t o c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r . (2) a. The c u r r e n t c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y f r o m f a r m t o c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r i s e f f i c i e n t , b . Lower t o t a l c o s t o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y w i l l no t r e s u l t f r om a change i n (1) t r u c k s i z e , (2) e l e v a t o r c a p a c i t y , (3) f a r m s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y , (4) h a u l i n g d i s t a n c e , and (5) t e m p o r a l d i s t r i b u -t i o n o f r a i l s h i p m e n t . O b j e c t i v e s . The o b j e c t i v e s w e r e : (1) t o d e v e l o p a s i m u l a t i o n mode l and (2) t o f i n d w h e t h e r b o t h t h e t e c h n i q u e and mode l were u s e f u l t o e v a l u a t e t h e a s s e m b l y o f g r a i n f r om f a r m t o e l e v a t o r . The mode l d e v e l o p e d w o u l d be a r e p r e s e n -t a t i o n o f t h e sys tem c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s t h e s i s . The mode l was t o i n c o r p o r a t e i m p o r t a n t components and d e c i s i o n s r e p r e -6 s e n t i n g g r a i n a s s e m b l y and was used t o e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t s o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y unde r d i f f e r e n t c o n f i g u r a t i o n s o f p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t h e p r e s e n t sys tem i s e f f i c i e n t , and i n d i c a t e t h e . d i r e c t i o n o f change t h a t m igh t r e d u c e t h e c o s t o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y . C r i t e r i a . The c r i t e r i o n t h a t i s used t o t e s t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f e f f i c i e n c y and t o i n d i c a t e a l o w e r c o s t a r r a n g e -ment o f c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r c a p a c i t y , e l e v a t o r l o c a t i o n , f a r m b i n c a p a c i t y and t r u c k s i z e i s l e a s t c o s t . I f i t i s assumed t h a t a g i v e n amount o f g r a i n must be h a n d l e d , t h e n i t f o l l o w s f r o m t h e t h e o r y o f t h e f i r m t h a t t h e r e i s a c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f e l e v a t o r s , f a r m b i n s , d i s t a n c e s , and t r u c k s i z e w h i c h w i l l p r o v i d e a l e a s t c o s t s o l u t i o n f o r t h e p a r t i c u l a r o u t p u t . The s i t u a t i o n i s one i n w h i c h a p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l i s g i v e n , and t h e c o s t o f p r o d u c t i o n i s t o be m i n i m i z e d . D e f i n e t h e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n t o be (1) Q = f ( x x , x 2 , x . . . , x n ) where x-j_ i s s i z e o f e l e v a t o r , x 2 i s s i z e o f f a r m s t o r a g e , x^ i s t r u c k s i z e , x ^ i s d i s t a n c e , and so o n . F o r any g i v e n o u t p u t l e v e l Q'\ t h e i d e a l sys tem t e n d s t o p roduce Q''~ as c h e a p l y as p o s s i b l e . The e x p e n d i t u r e i s (2) M = P - ^ + P 2X 2 + ... + P nX n The opt imum sys tem i n v o l v e s m i n i m i z i n g M s u b j e c t t o t h e ou tpu t l e v e l Q'1' and g i v e n t h e f u n c t i o n ( 1 ) . The method o f Lag range m u l t i p l i e r s l e a d s t o e q u a t i o n s ( 3 ) , ( 4 ) , and ( 5 ) . (3) f{xlt x 2, x n) - Q' = 0 (4) Mt. - + P 2 X 2 + . . . + P N X N + Taking the p a r t i a l s and setting them equal to zero we obtain = P X 5 x x J»x1 (5) J 5 M ^ = f ( x l f x 2, x n) - Q* = 0 and simplifying, ( 6 ) P X - _)Jf_ P 2 ' - \ - ^ d C x 2 P i = ->,_d£ In c l a s s i c a l terms t h i s simply states that the marginal products of f a c t o r i i s set proportionate to i t s p r i c e . The f i r s t p a r t i a l derivatives aMK determine the system's S x i expansion pattern. System (6) does not convey any information about the average cost other than the physical plant w i l l operate a plant size which i s appropriate f o r i t s anticipated output, that i s , has minimum average cost f o r that output. The one dimension that has not been mentioned and i s important i n t h i s study i s time. Grain production i s not con-stant but varies from year to year whereas the c r i t e r i a mentioned 8 above apply under a given l e v e l of output. But given one l e v e l of output, a- l e a s t cost c o n f i g u r a t i o n would be deter-mined only f o r t h a t output whereas the system handles a d i f f e r e n t amount of g r a i n each year. C a p i t a l theory might be a p p l i e d , but the method used was to look f o r a minimum i n the t o t a l cost of h a n d l i n g the q u a n t i t y of g r a i n , deter-mined from h i s t o r i c a l data, over a period of f i f t e e n years . Thus i f i t were p o s s i b l e to f i n d a c o n f i g u r a t i o n that pro-vided a t o t a l cost l e s s than the cost i n the e x i s t i n g system, then the e x i s t i n g c o n f i g u r a t i o n would be i n e f f i c i e n t . Scope. This study deals w i t h the movement of g r a i n from the farm to the r a i l r o a d i n a l i m i t e d area. The l o c a -t i o n i s t h a t of an area i n the Peace R i v e r region of A l b e r t a Q encompassing approximately 760,000 acres . The town of Grande P r a i r i e i s the eastern boundary and the town of Hythe i s the western boundary. Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, and Beaverlodge, moving east to west, comprise the other p o i n t s . There are s i x shipping p o i n t s i n v o l v i n g twenty-five e l e v a t o r s w i t h a c a p a c i t y of 2 , 2 6 5 , 4 0 0 bushels. There are 1,650 farms h o l d i n g Canadian Wheat Board permits i n the area. Average farm s i z e was 4 7 0 acres. Crops i n c l u d e d wheat, oats, b a r l e y , r y e , f l a x s e e d and rapeseed w i t h a s i z e a b l e acreage of forage crops used f o r seed production Optimizing over time i s a d i f f i c u l t problem and i s not f u l l y explored. See J.M. Henderson and R.E. Quandt, Microeconomic  Theory A Mathematical Approach (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., I n c . , 1958), pp. 2 4 0 - 2 5 2 . Appendix I I Table LXXVI„ 9 o r h a y , a l t h o u g h o n l y t h e f i r s t f i v e a r e c o n s i d e r e d r e l e v a n t t o t h i s s t u d y . As i n most g r a i n g r o w i n g a r e a s t h e r e a r e numerous f a r m s t o r a g e b i n s o f v a r i o u s shapes and made o f v a r i o u s m a t e r i a l s . The a v e r a g e f a r m s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y was e i g h t e e n b u s h e l s p e r c u l t i v a t e d a c r e . The f a r m component t h e n i n c l u d e s c r o p p r o d u c t i o n , f a r m s t o r a g e , and t h e movement o f g r a i n t o t h e e l e v a t o r i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d q u o t a s . The e l e v a t o r r e c e i v e s t h e g r a i n , p e r f o r m i n g t h e f u n c t i o n o f t h e i n i t i a l b u y e r . The e l e v a t o r company t h e n a c t s i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h e x -p o r t m a r k e t s as r e q u i r e d by t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d and l o a d s g r a i n i n t o r a i l r o a d box c a r s t o be s h i p p e d t o t h e r e q u i r e d d e s t i n a t i o n . The s t u d y i n v o l v e s g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n e n t e r i n g t h e q u e u e , g r a i n i n f a r m s t o r a g e , and g r a i n i n e l e v a t o r s t o r a g e i n t h e q u e u e , w i t h t h e r a i l r o a d s r e m o v i n g g r a i n f r om t h e e l e v a t o r , e f f e c t i v e l y r e m o v i n g g r a i n f r om t h e q u e u e . The c o s t o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n t h i s c l o s e d - l o o p sys tem a r e . r e c o r d e d by t h e mode l and a c c r u e d as t o t a l c o s t s t o t h e s y s t e m . The s t u d y i s g e n e r a l i n t h e sense t h a t t h e mode l d e s -c r i b e s a g e n e r a l p r o c e s s w h i c h c o u l d be changed t o i n c o r p o r a t e new knowledge o r a d a p t e d t o o t h e r r e g i o n s . The e m p i r i c a l r e s u l t s a r e c o n d i t i o n a l upon t h e v a l i d i t y o f a s s u m p t i o n s and d a t a used"*"^. The i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n s a r e d i s c u s s e d i n M. F r i e d m a n , i ? The M e t h o d o l o g y o f P o s i t i v e E c o n o m i c s 1 ' , E s s a y s  i n P o s i t i v e E c o n o m i c s ( C h i c a g o : The U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1 9 5 3 ) , p p . 3 - 4 3 . 10 L i m i t a t i o n s . There a r e d e f i n i t e l i m i t a t i o n s t o t h e t e c h n i q u e , m o d e l , and d a t a . There i s no t h e o r y o f s i m u l a t i o n , so t h a t each s i m u l a t i o n s t u d y must be i n t e r -p r e t e d as t o t h e p u r p o s e , p r o c e d u r e , and a p p l i c a b i l i t y o f u s i n g t h e t e c h n i q u e . There a r e o t h e r t e c h n i q u e s w h i c h m igh t be a p p l i e d t o a n a l y z e g r a i n a s s e m b l y ; h o w e v e r , t h e a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f t h e s e p o s s i b l e t e c h n i q u e s have no t been i n v e s t i g a t e d i n t h i s s t u d y . No mode l o f any s o r t r e p r o d u c e s o r r e p r e s e n t s t h e r e a l s i t u a t i o n i n a l l o f i t s d e t a i l . The mode l u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y i s no t an e x c e p t i o n . There a r e a g r e a t number o f d e c i s i o n s made i n t h e a s s e m b l y o f g r a i n , bu t t h e e x a c t n a t u r e o f t h e s e d e c i s i o n s was unknown, r e -q u i r i n g a g r e a t d e a l o f s i m p l i f i c a t i o n . The e x p a n s i o n o f knowledge c o n c e r n i n g t h e g r a i n t r a d e w i l l p r o v i d e mode ls t h a t a r e p r e c i s e a n a l o g u e s o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y . D a t a l i m i t a -t i o n s a l s o f o r c e d t h e use o f s i m p l i f y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s . Use o f t h e e f f i c i e n c y c r i t e r i o n p r e s u p p o s e s t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a l e a s t c o s t c o n f i g u r a t i o n . The d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f an e f f i c i e n t s y s t e m i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t due t o t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e sys tem and b e c a u s e t h e t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n does no t seek an op t imum. The s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s u s e d may p r e c l u d e use o f r e l e -v a n t v a r i a b l e s i n t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f a l e a s t c o s t s y s t e m . The a g g r e g a t i o n o f numerous f i r m s c o m p l i c a t e s t he p r o b l e m and c r i t e r i a , as does t h e d i m e n s i o n o f t i m e . The a s s u m p t i o n s s h o u l d be q u e s t i o n e d . Whether t h e mode l a d e q u a t e l y r e f l e c t s r e a l i t y o r n o t , i s unknown"'""'". I t i s 11 L a c k o f d a t a p r e v e n t e d a more complex mode l f r o m b e i n g d e -v e l o p e d as w e l l as p r e c l u d i n g adequa te t e s t i n g o f t h e m o d e l . 11 assumed t h a t t h e t e c h n i q u e and t h e mode l p r o v i d e a u s e f u l t o o l f o r t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f g r a i n assemb l y f r o m f a r m t o e l e v a t o r . D e f i n i t i o n s . There a r e s e v e r a l words w h i c h w i l l be u s e d q u i t e o f t e n i n t h i s s t u d y . I t may be u s e f u l t o d e f i n e s u c h words t o p r e v e n t a m b i g u i t y . S i m u l t i o n was t h e t e c h n i q u e u s e d i n t h e s t u d y t o e s t i m a t e g r a i n a s s e m b l y c o s t s . S i m u l a t o r r e f e r s t o t h e mode l u s e d i n a s p e c i f i c s i m -u l a t i o n . Computer r u n i s t h e o u t p u t o b t a i n e d f r om t h e computer mode l as a consequence o f a p a r t i c u l a r s e t o f a s s u m p t i o n s u s e d as p a r a m e t e r s and i n p u t s . P r o x y r e f e r s t o a s u b s t i t u t e s e t o f numbers o r e v e n t s u s e d t o r e p r e s e n t t h e r e a l w o r l d i n a s i m u l a t o r . D e s i g n v a r i a b l e s a r e v a r i a b l e s w h i c h can be changed f r o m one c o n f i g u r a t i o n o r r u n t o a n o t h e r i n w h i c h case t h e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s a c t as p a r a m e t e r s , Monte C a r l o i s s i m u l a t e d s a m p l i n g , t h a t i s , r e p l a c i n g t h e u n i v e r s e o f i t e m s by i t s t h e o r e t i c a l c o u n t e r p a r t , and t h e n s a m p l i n g f r om t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l p o p u l a t i o n u s i n g random numbers . C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r i s a p u b l i c c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r i n w h i c h g r a i n i s a c c e p t e d f rom a f a r m e r and i n i t i a l payment i s made unde r agreement w i t h t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d , s t o r e d , o r d i s c h a r g e d . 12 C a p a c i t y o f a c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r i s t h e a c t u a l s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y i n b u s h e l s as r e p o r t e d i n " G r a i n E l e v a t o r s i n C a n a d a " and p u b l i s h e d by t h e Canada Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r e . H a n d l i n g - t o - c a p a c i t y r a t i o f o r a p e r i o d o f t i m e " t " i s t h e r a t i o o b t a i n e d by summing t h e number o f b u s h e l s o f g r a i n p l a c e d i n t h e e l e v a t o r i n t and t h e number o f b u s h e l s o f g r a i n removed i n t d i v i d e d by t w i c e t h e r a t e d c a p a c i t y . Annex i s t h e a d d i t i o n a l s t o r a g e space a t t a c h e d t o t h e ma in e l e v a t o r h o u s e . A n n e x - t o - c a p a c i t y r a t i o i s t h e annex c a p a c i t y d i v i d e d by t h e t o t a l r a t e d c a p a c i t y o f t h e e l e v a t o r . A C rop y e a r b e g i n s Augus t 1 s t o f y e a r ( t ) and ends J u l y 3 1 s t o f y e a r ( t + 1 ) . R e c e i p t s i s t h e vo lume o f g r a i n r e c e i v e d a t c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s f o r a g i v e n c r o p y e a r r e p o r t e d i n t h e "Summary o f C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r R e c e i p t s a t I n d i v i d u a l P r a i r i e P o i n t s " c o m p i l e d and p u b l i s h e d by t h e S t a t i s t i c s B r a n c h o f t h e B o a r d o f G r a i n Commis-s i o n e r s f o r C a n a d a . Throughput i s t h e amount o f g r a i n s h i p p e d f r o m a p a r t i c u l a r e l e v a t o r i n a g i v e n c r o p y e a r . T h r o u g h p u t - t o - c a p a c i t y r a t i o i s t h e t h r o u g h p u t , as d e f i n e d a b o v e , d i v i d e d by t h e r a t e d c a p a c i t y o f a c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r . U t i l i z a t i o n o f space r e f e r s t o t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f s t o r a g e b e i n g u s e d a t a p a r t i c u l a r t i m e , t h a t i s , t h e amount s t o r e d d i v i d e d by c a p a c i t y a t t i m e t . 13 P o i n t o r E l e v a t o r p o i n t i s a l o c a t i o n where one o r more c o u n t r y g r a i n e l e v a t o r s e x i s t . Farm s t o r a g e r e f e r s t o b i n s a v a i l a b l e on a f a r m t o s t o r e g r a i n , and c a p a c i t y measured i n b u s h e l s . Ground s t o r a g e i s t h e t e m p o r a r y p i l i n g o f g r a i n on t h e g r o u n d . H a u l d i s t a n c e i s t h e a v e r a g e d i s t a n c e f r om fa rm o r g round s t o r a g e t o t h e e l e v a t o r p o i n t . T r u c k c a p a c i t y i s t h e maximum box c a p a c i t y o f a 12 t r u c k e x p r e s s e d i n b u s h e l s A C o n f i g u r a t i o n i s a p h y s i c a l a r rangement o f e l e v a -t o r s , f a r m b i n s , h a u l i n g d i s t a n c e s , and t r u c k c a p a c i t i e s e x i s t i n g i n t h e r e g i o n unde r s t u d y o r i n a computer r u n . G r a i n a s s e m b l y c o s t i s t h e sum o f e l e v a t o r c o s t , h a u l i n g c o s t , f a r m s t o r a g e c o s t , g round s t o r a g e c o s t , and f a r m h a n d l i n g c o s t . T h i s c h a p t e r h a s i n t r o d u c e d t h e p r o b l e m and t h e n a t u r e o f t h i s s t u d y . The r e m a i n i n g c h a p t e r s d i s c u s s t h e g r a i n t r a d e f u r t h e r , i n t r o d u c e t h e t e c h n i q u e and mode l u s e d i n t h e s t u d y , t h e d a t a u s e d i n t h e m o d e l , r e s u l t s o f t h e m o d e l , and c o n c l u s i o n s t o t h i s s t u d y . S e e , K . B . Y o u n g , An A n a l y s i s o f t h e Cos t o f A s s e m b l i n g G r a i n  by Farm T r u c k s i n M a n i t o b a ( R e s e a r c h R e p o r t N o . 11, D e p a r t -ment o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f M a n i t o b a , O c t o b e r , 1966) , p . 7. CHAPTER II 14 RESOURCE ALLOCATION In the broadest sense, the welfare of a society-depends upon the s a t i s f a c t i o n of a l l i t s consumers. Such a statement i s based upon e t h i c a l b e l i e f s or value judgements which cannot be provided, and cannot be measured. The con-cept i s narrowed by using the r e s t r i c t e d notion of economic welfare"'". The size of national income i s measurable but not useful by precluding noneconomic dimensions of welfare. The s i z e , d i v i s i o n s and method of s l i c i n g of the economic pie are three dimensions of national welfare, making i t d i f f i c u l t to define a single index f o r the broad objective. E f f i c i e n c y expresses the objective of maximization of the size of the economic pie which provides the fundamental p r i n c i p l e of o economic e f f i c i e n c y . This objective i s discussed as an o v e r a l l goal i n r e l a t i o n to resource a l l o c a t i o n . The use of the concept and the c r i t e r i a f o r measurement i n t h i s thesis are then discussed. The system required f o r movement of Canadian grain from the farmer to the ultimate consumer i s one of great complexity. •*"A survey of welfare economics has been made by: E.J. Mishan, A Survey of Welfare Economics. 1939-59 (Vol. I of Surveys of • Economic Theory. 3 vols.; New York: St. Martin's Press, 19&7), pp. 1 5 4 - 2 2 2 . o The use of the e f f i c i e n c y objective may not always be d e s i r -able. The relevance of t h i s objective has been discussed by: S.A. Marglin, "Objectives of Water-Resource Development: A General Statement", Design of Water-Resource Systems, A. Maass, M.M. Hufschmidt, R. Dorfman, H.A. Thomas, J r . , S.A. Marglin, G.M. F a i r et a l (Cambridge: H a r v a r d University Press, 1 9 6 2 ) , pp.. 1 7 - 6 7 . 1 5 The numerous f i r m s and i n d i v i d u a l s f o r m i n g t h i s sys tem a c t i n d e p e n d e n t l y , s u b j e c t t o r e g u l a t i o n and economic i n f l u e n c e s . The n a t u r e o f t h i s , c h a p t e r i s t o i n d i c a t e , v e r y b r i e f l y , t h e n a t u r e o f t h e economic i n f l u e n c e s , t h e i r r e l e v a n c e , t h e i r i m p o r t a n c e t o t h e s y s t e m , and i n a d d i t i o n t o e v a l u a t e t h e p r e s e n t s y s t e m and p o s t u l a t e d c h a n g e s . R e s o u r c e A l l o c a t i o n . M i c r o e c o n o m i c t h e o r y , d e a l i n g w i t h t h e consumer and f i r m , d e t e r m i n e s t h e n o r m a t i v e p a t t e r n o f r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n t h r o u g h a s e t o f p r o d u c t and f a c t o r m a r k e t s . Two o t h e r e x t e n s i o n s a r e r e q u i r e d . These a r e f i r s t l y an i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e complex i n t e r a c t i o n s be tween m a r k e t s , and s e c o n d l y an i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h two d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n s o f r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n can be com-p a r e d . D e t e r m i n i n g n o r m a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n p u t s t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f v a r i o u s c o m m o d i t i e s and t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c o m m o d i t i e s among consumers i s a g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m p r o b l e m ^ . R e s o u r c e s t r a n s f e r r e d t o one i n d u s t r y a r e p r e s u m a b l y removed f r o m a n o t h e r . T h i s i s t h e e s s e n t i a l f e a t u r e o f an economy i f r e s o u r c e s a r e a v a i l a b l e i n l i m i t e d q u a n t i t y . The e s s e n t i a l f e a t u r e o f g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m t h e o r y i s t h e i n t e r -r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h i c h e x i s t be tween t h e i n d u s t r i e s o f an economy. I t i s no t p o s s i b l e t o say t h a t more o f a commodi ty i s a good t h i n g as t h e d e c r e a s e i n q u a n t i t y o f a good (a) may be more v a l u a b l e t o t h e economy t h a n t h e i n c r e a s e o f good (b) g i v e n a s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i o n . - % . J . B a u m o l . , Economic Theory and O p e r a t i o n s A n a l y s i s (Second E d i t i o n ; Eng lewood C l i f f s : P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , 1 9 6 5 ) , p . 3 5 5 . 16 Thus the optimal a l l o c a t i o n of resources between two items can only be determined by e v a l u a t i n g the r e l a t i v e demands and production c o s t s . E s s e n t i a l l y optimal output of one good can be determined only i n comparison w i t h another commodity which competes f o r the economy's scarce resources. The i m p l i c a t i o n s of the theory are c l e a r l y r e l e v a n t t o the d i s c u s s i o n of g r a i n marketing, where the system i s complex and i s composed of many i n d i v i d u a l s , f i r m s , and i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements. Even under the l i m i t a t i o n s of t h i s study, the theory i s relev a n t as i t i n d i c a t e s not only the d i f f i c u l t y of adequate a n a l y s i s , but the importance of c o n s i d e r i n g the i n t e r a c t i o n s between i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h i s study and i n the economy. There are probably s e v e r a l changes i n the g r a i n marketing system which could be advocated when c o n s i d e r i n g the system a separate e n t i t y , but would be to the disadvantage of the r e s t of the economy. Input-output a n a l y s i s and macroeconometric models have been used to render the theory o p e r a t i o n a l although data requirements have been very d i f f i c u l t to overcome. Unfor-t u n a t e l y , the theory i s not an adequate engine of a n a l y s i s , however, i t does provide a framework which should be kept i n mind when d e a l i n g w i t h complex problems of resource a l l o c a t i o n . Welfare Economics. Welfare economic theory provides a t h e o r e t i c a l framework f o r p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s although fun-damental p h i l o s o p h i c a l problems e x i s t . E s s e n t i a l l y welfare economics i s a general e q u i l i b r i u m problem as i t i s concerned 17 w i t h d i f f e r e n t r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n s . M a r g i n a l c o n d i t i o n s can be s e t up w h i c h must be s a t i s f i e d t o be u s e f u l t o i n d i -c a t e t h e s p e c i f i c d e c i s i o n s r e q u i r e d f o r a l l o c a t i o n ^ . They a r e i n a d e q u a t e as o p e r a t i o n a l c o n c e p t s s i n c e d a t a l i m i t a t i o n s a r e major problems. O b v i o u s l y , n e i t h e r t h e t h e o r y o f w e l -f a r e economics o r g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m w i l l p r o v i d e answers t o s p e c i f i c q u e s t i o n s but w i l l p r o v i d e an i m p l i c i t frame-work f o r economic a n a l y s i s - - a t h e o r e t i c a l guide t o c o n s i d e r when d e a l i n g w i t h t h e g r a i n h a n d l i n g system. E f f i c i e n c y . Economic e f f i c i e n c y can be d e f i n e d as t h e p r o d u c t i v e arrangement o f an economy such t h a t t h e w e l -f a r e o f consumers i s maximized . T h i s , however, i s r e a l l y a Top L e v e l Optimum w h i c h r e q u i r e s t h e e q u a t i n g o f t h e sub-j e c t i v e r a t e o f s u b s t i t u t i o n o f a l l i n d i v i d u a l s t o t h e r a t e o f t r a n s f o r m a t i o n f o r a l l p a i r s o f goods i n t h e economy 0. The p a r t i c u l a r l o c u s o f e f f i c i e n c y p o i n t s w h i c h ar e r e q u i r e d by t h e h y p o t h e s i s i n t h i s s t u d y i s t h a t o f p r o d u c t i o n . T h i s i s d e f i n e d as t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e -s o u r c e s such t h a t " . . . . i t i s not p o s s i b l e t o produce any more o f a good w i t h o u t p r o d u c i n g l e s s o f some o t h e r good ..."^ I n o t h e r words, o u t p u t cannot be i n c r e a s e d by a mere r e -arrangement o f i n p u t s . T h i s i s n o t h i n g more t h a n a ^ F o r d e t a i l s o f t h e m a r g i n a l c o n d i t i o n s and t h e s p e c i f i c de-c i s i o n s w h i c h must be met see A. P. L e r n e r The Economics o f  C o n t r o l (New York: The M a c m i l l a n Co., 1946) . ^0. E c k s t e i n Water Resource Development: Economics o f P r o j e c t  E v a l u a t i o n (Cambridge: H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 195%), p.23. ^ i shan, op_. c i t . . , p. 164. 7 I b i d . 16-t e c h n o l o g i c a l r e q u i r e m e n t as i t o n l y r e f e r s t o t h e most e f f i c i e n t method o f p r o d u c t i o n , t h a t i s , l e a s t c o s t , and a v o i d s a l l p r o b l e m s o f income d i s t r i b u t i o n . However , t h e r e q u i r e m e n t does no t p r e c l u d e e x t e r n a l i t i e s . A s s u m p t i o n s and P r o b l e m s . The c o m p e t i t i v e mode l i s u s u a l l y assumed t o meet t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f e f f i c i e n c y . The p r o d u c e r s must be p r o f i t m a x i m i z e r s and o p e r a t e unde r c o n d i -t i o n s o f d e c r e a s i n g r e t u r n s . T e c h n i c a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s between d i f f e r e n t f i r m s must no t e x i s t . P e r f e c t m a r k e t s a r e r e q u i r e d f o r t h e mode l as i s t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t p r o d u c e d goods a r e m a r k e t a b l e . R e s o u r c e s a r e c o n s i d e r e d m o b i l e , and a r e em-p l o y e d r e f l e c t i n g o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s . Income d i s t r i b u t i o n i s c o n s i d e r e d a p p r o p r i a t e . These a s s u m p t i o n s a r e p r e s u p p o s e d i n t h e s t u d y . A l -t hough t h e a s s u m p t i o n s may be i n v a l i d , t h e y p r o v i d e d a t h e o r e t i c a l f r a m e w o r k . The m a j o r p r o b l e m was t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f m o b i l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s . The c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r and f a r m b i n a r e e s s e n t i a l l y i m m o b i l e . The s t r u c t u r e r e p r e s e n t s l a r g e l y f i x e d o v e r h e a d c o s t s , and canno t be e a s i l y moved. O t h e r i n p u t s u s e d by t h e sys tem under s t u d y a r e p e r h a p s no t i m m o b i l e bu t a re s t i c k y i n t h e i r m o b i l i t y . A n o t h e r way o f v i e w i n g t h i s i s t o say t h a t t h e r e s o u r c e s may have no a l -t e r n a t i v e u s e s , o r t h a t t h e u s e s a r e l i m i t e d . One o t h e r p r o b l e m r e m a i n s , t h a t o f i ncome d i s t r i -b u t i o n . A l t h o u g h i t does no t e n t e r e x p l i c i t l y i n t o t h i s s t u d y , i t i s o f i m p o r t a n c e i n a much b r o a d e r a s p e c t . Economic mode l s can be d i v i d e d i n t o two p a r t s ; 19 (1) t h e p a r t d e s c r i b i n g t h e s t r u c t u r a l s ys tem and t h e r e l a -t i o n s h i p s among t h e v a r i a b l e s , and (2) a p a r t w h i c h e v a l u a t e s t h e consequences o f any c h o i c e o f v a r i a b l e s i n t e rms o f a measure o f d e s i r a b i l i t y . I t i s t h i s l a t t e r p a r t w h i c h must be f o c u s e d u p o n . Economic e f f i c i e n c y i s o f t e n used b y e c o n o m i s t s t o e x p r e s s t h e s i z e o f t h e economic p i e w h i c h i s s u p e r i o r t o n a t i o n a l i n c o m e . Economic w e l f a r e i s t h e o b -j e c t i v e bu t i t canno t be t r a n s l a t e d i n t o an o p e r a t i o n a l o b -j e c t i v e . I t i s no t c l e a r t h a t e f f i c i e n c y i s an adequa te m e a s u r i n g r o d , as i t e x c l u d e s noneconomic d i m e n s i o n s o f w e l -f a r e and i m p l i e s s o c i e t y i s c o m p l e t e l y i n d i f f e r e n t t o t h e r e c i p i e n t o f i n c o m e . The q u e s t i o n i s w h e t h e r o r no t C a n a d i a n s a r e s o l e l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h e f f i c i e n c y , and i f n o t , what i s t h e o b j e c t i v e . T h i s i s e x t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t when d i s -c u s s i n g t h e g r a i n t r a d e , f o r many i n d i v i d u a l s a r e i n v o l v e d i n t h e s y s t e m , and no t l e a s t o f t h e s e a r e t h e f a r m e r s . A re t h e y c o n c e r n e d w i t h e f f i c i e n c y a l o n e o r a r e t h e y r e a l l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h d i s t r i b u t i o n ? I f t h e y a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h d i s t r i b u t i o n t h e n t h e o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n must be f o r m u l a t e d i n s u c h a manner w h i c h e v a l u a t e s methods and changes i n economy. Means o f a f f e c t i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n can be g l i b l y t a l k e d a b o u t , and i t i s q u i t e l i k e l y t h a t t h e method o f s l i c i n g t h e economic p i e i s as i m p o r t a n t as d i v i s i o n and s i z e o f p i e . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e i n d i v i d u a l s c o m p r i s i n g t h e t r a d e , t h e f a r m e r s i n p a r t i c u l a r , may no t s i m p l y a c c e p t lump sum payments w i t h an e f f i c i e n t s y s t e m , bu t o t h e r methods w h i c h w i l l e f f e c t t h e p r o p e r d i s t r i b u t i o n must be 20 f o u n d . T h i s i s immense ly more d i f f i c u l t t h a n s i m p l y d e t e r m i n i n g t h e s i z e o f t h e s l i c e . The o b j e c t i v e d e t e r m i n a t i o n has a n o t h e r a s p e c t : t h a t o f t h e v i e w p o i n t t a k e n . C l e a r l y , a r e g i o n a l o r p r o v i n c i a l v i e w p o i n t v i i 11 d i f f e r f r om t h a t o f t h e economy. I n t h e c a s e o f t h e g r a i n h a n d l i n g s y s t e m , t h e v i e w p o i n t i s e x t r e m e -l y i m p o r t a n t , as i t i s l a r g e l y an a c t i v i t y b a s e d i n t h e p r a i r i e p r o v i n c e s . Q u e s t i o n s such as r a i l abandonment may mean v e r y l i t t l e t o o t h e r a r e a s i n C a n a d a , and t h e y m igh t q u i t e p o s s i b l y f e e l t h e p r o b l e m o f r a i l abandonment i s o n l y a f i g m e n t o f i m a g i n a t i o n . By t a k i n g t h e i r r e g i o n a l s t a n d -p o i n t , i t m igh t be d e c i d e d t h a t t h e l i n e s s h o u l d be a b a n -doned so t h a t r e s o u r c e s can move t o t h e i r own a r e a s . T h i s s h o u l d no t be t a k e n s e r i o u s l y , as i t i s o n l y a h y p o t h e t i c a l examp le ; bu t i t i s a d i f f i c u l t y f o u n d t h r o u g h o u t t h e l i t e r -a t u r e on c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s . E f f i c i e n c y o f p r o d u c t i o n has been chosen as t h e o b -j e c t i v e . T h i s o b j e c t i v e can be f o r m u l a t e d i n t e rms o f a l -t e r n a t i v e o r o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s . E f f i c i e n c y can be d e f i n e d as t h e r a t i o o f a c t u a l o u t p u t t o m a x i m i z e o u t p u t f r om g i v e n r e s o u r c e s . To a c h i e v e a v a l u e o f u n i t y , t h e v a l u e o f t h e m a r g i n a l p r o d u c t o f each i n p u t i s e q u a l t o i t s a l t e r n a t i v e c o s t , w h i c h i n d i c a t e s t h a t o u t p u t s a r e p r o d u c e d a t l e a s t c o s t . T h i s c o n c e p t o f l e a s t c o s t was u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y as t h e c r i t e r i o n t o measure e f f i c i e n c y . The t o t a l c o s t o f a s s e m b l i n g g r a i n t o t h e s i x e l e v a t o r p o i n t s p r o v i d e s t h e G . J . S t i g l e r , The Theory o f P r i c e ( r e v i s e d e d i t i o n ; New Y o r k : The M a c m i l l a n C o . , 1952), pp. 101-106. 21 m e a s u r i n g r o d , g i v e n t h e a s s u m p t i o n s o f t h e c o m p e t i t i v e mode l as p r e v i o u s l y s t a t e d and t h a t t h e t o t a l c o s t r e p r e -s e n t s t h e a l t e r n a t i v e c o s t s o f t h e f a c t o r s u s e d . The i n p u t s u s e d by t h e f a r m e r and e l e v a t o r i n d u s t r y seem r e l a t i v e l y com-p e t i t i v e l y p r i c e d , and i f t h e c o s t s d e t e r m i n e d i n t h e s t u d y r e f l e c t o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t , t h e a s s u m p t i o n i s r e a l i s t i c . A r e d u c t i o n o f t o t a l c o s t , by a s s u m i n g a d i f f e r e n t c o n f i g u r a -t i o n w o u l d i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e p r e s e n t c o n f i g u r a t i o n i s i n -e f f i c i e n t as t h e same o u t p u t , t h a t i s , g r a i n h a n d l e d by t h e sys tem c o u l d be a c h i e v e d u s i n g f e w e r r e s o u r c e s . A l -t hough i t i s c o n c e p t u a l l y p o s s i b l e t o f i n d minimum c o s t , i t i s i n r e a l i t y i m p o s s i b l e t o f i n d g i v e n t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f d a t a . T h i s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d f u r t h e r i n a l a t e r c h a p t e r . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o r e s t a t e t h a t t h e c r i t e r i o n and o b j e c -t i v e a r e s u b j e c t t o c o n s t a n t t e c h n o l o g y w h i c h p r e c l u d e s new methods o f s t o r i n g and h a n d l i n g g r a i n . These advances i n t e c h n o l o g y a r e i m p o r t a n t , bu t do no t i n v a l i d a t e t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h i s s t u d y . I f t h e a d v a n c e s can be u s e d e c o n o m i c a l l y , t h e n t h e y w i l l s i m p l y be u s e d . E f f i c i e n c y o f p r o d u c t i o n i s an i m p o r t a n t c o n c e p t . I t i s o p e r a t i o n a l , and p r o v i d e s a b a s i s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h , t h a t i s , t h e sys tem can be s t u d i e d t o i n d i c a t e why i t i s i n e f f i c i e n t and how t o p r o v i d e t h e p r o p e r r e g u l a t i o n t o move t h e sys tem t o t h e e f f i c i e n c y l o c u s ^ . G e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m and w e l f a r e economics have been b r i e f l y m e n t i o n e d , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h i s s t u d y o f a l i m i t e d 9 F o r an e x c e l l e n t p a p e r d i s c u s s i n g t h e f a i l u r e o f - a marke t s ys tem see F . B a t o r , "Anatomy o f M a r k e t F a i l u r e " , Q u a r t e r l y  J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s L X X I I (1958), pp .351-379. 22 sys tem i n v o l v i n g many i n d i v i d u a l s i s a d i f f i c u l t m a t t e r . The i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t e x i s t a r e i m p o r t a n t , and t h e y canno t be examined i n i s o l a t i o n . W e l f a r e e c o n o m i c s , w i t h a l l i t s t h e o r e t i c a l p r o b l e m s , p r o v i d e s a u s e f u l f r amework , and p r o v i d e s a b a s i c o b j e c t i v e o f e f f i c i e n c y . Even t hough s t r i c t a s s u m p t i o n s accompany t h e o b j e c t i v e , i t i s u s e d . The c r i t e r i a u s e d i n t h e s t u d y was l e a s t t o t a l c o s t . There a r e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n t h e a c c e p t a n c e o f t h e o b j e c t i v e and c r i t e r i o n , bu t t h e y seem t o be t h e b e s t a v a i l a b l e . The minimum c o s t p o i n t cannot be f o u n d , bu t t h e mere i n d i c a -t i o n o f i n e f f i c i e n c y i s a v e r y i m p o r t a n t economic concep t as f u r t h e r s t u d y i s c a l l e d f o r t o f i n d t h e r e a s o n s and p r o v i d e i n c e n t i v e s t o move t h e sys tem i n t h e c o r r e c t d i r e c t i o n ^ . 10 The p r o b l e m o f second b e s t h a s been assumed away. 23 CHAPTER I I I THE GRAIN TRADE IN WESTERN CANADA The g r a i n t r a d e i n Canada h a s e v o l v e d t h r o u g h t i m e as a m a j o r f a c t o r i n C a n a d i a n economics and h i s t o r y . The p r e s e n t s y s t e m i s a complex c o m b i n a t i o n o f p u b l i c and p r i v a t e e n t e r p r i s e s w o r k i n g t o g e t h e r i n t h e m a r k e t i n g o f C a n a d i a n g r a i n . . Whe ther i t i s t h e b e s t method i s d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r -mine and depends on t h e c r i t e r i a u s e d t o e v a l u a t e t h e s y s t e m . There a r e b o t h a d v o c a t e s a n d . c r i t i c s o f t h e s y s t e m , as w i t h most economic i n s t i t u t i o n s " ' " . I. GRAIN MARKETING IN THE HISTORY OF WESTERN CANADA A b r i e f g l i m p s e o f t h e g e n e r a l m a r k e t i n g sys tem p r o -v i d e s a b a c k g r o u n d t o t h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h e s t u d y . The s t u d y i s bounded by l i m i t a t i o n s as d e s i g n a t e d i n t h e d e f i n i t i o n : " M a r k e t i n g i s t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f a l l b u s i n e s s a c t i v i t i e s i n -v o l v e d i n t h e f l o w o f goods and s e r v i c e s f r om t h e p o i n t o f i n i t i a l p r o d u c t i o n u n t i l t h e y a r e i n t h e hands o f t h e u l t i -mate consumer " , M a r k e t i n g i n c l u d e s a l l s u c h a c t i v i t i e s whereas o n l y t h e most o b v i o u s and i m p o r t a n t a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d h e r e . "^E.W. T y r c h n i e w i c z and Om P . T a n g r i , " G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n C a n a d a : Some C r i t i c a l I s s u e s and I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r - R e s e a r c h , " C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , XVI:1 ( F e b r u a r y 1968), pp.85-97. 2 R . L . K o h l s , M a r k e t i n g o f A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t s , ( second e d i t i o n : M a c m i l l a n , 1961) , p .6. 24 The grain marketing system in existence today i n -volves a combination of private and public agencies to meet the requirements of the trade. This complex system can be described as an evolutionary response to requirements of the economy and growth through the many faces of Canadian history. A great deal has been written from many points of view about these requirements through time.. The confederation of Canada in 1867 provided govern-ment impetus for the development and growth of the new nation. Fowke refers to such impetus as a national policy. The National Policy was defined as a collective term covering those policies which after the middle of the nineteenth century were directed in a com-plementary fashion toward the creation of a trans-continental Canadian Nation, 3 As in most instances, p o l i t i c s i s intertwined with economics, with the net result being the settlement and es-tablishment of a great grain producing area in the prairie provinces. The economic imperative of the national policy, as contrasted-with i t s p o l i t i c a l or t e r r i t o r i a l re-quirements, was the establishment of a new frontier of investment opportunity which would be attached commercially and financially to the eastern pro-vinces. Although by no means clearly foreseen in the early decades of the national policy, effective occupation of the central plains as required for the preservation of Pacific frontage and a doorway to the Orient, eventuated in the establishment of the wheat economy. This, in turn, provided the new economic frontier of investment opportunity without which the f i r s t century of the national,policy would have been but an empty p o l i t i c a l dream. V.C. Fowke, The National Policy and the Wheat Economy (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1957), p.281. Ibid., p.283. 25 The c r e a t i o n o f t h e g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n a r e a o f t h e p r a i r i e s was o f a v e r y complex n a t u r e , w i t h many dependent r e l a t i o n s h i p s , much l i k e a M a r k o v c h a i n p r o c e s s w h e r e i n t i m i n g i s i m p o r t a n t i n l i n k i n g t h e i m p o r t a n t e v e n t s i n a c h a i n - l i k e manner . As Fowke s t a t e s : " R a i l w a y , l a n d , and i m m i g r a t i o n p o l i c i e s were i n e x t r i c a b l y i n t e r r e l a t e d i n t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e wheat economy"^. The deve lopment and g rowth o f t h e C a n a d i a n wes t was n o t smooth and u n e v e n t f u l . L o o k i n g a t t h e m i c r o c a s m o f t h e g r a i n t r a d e a l o n e , t h e e v o l u t i o n o f t h e t r a d e was hammered and tempered t o t h e c r i s i s a t t h e moment, and t h e n amended o r changed when t h e n e x t c r i s i s a r o s e . I n e f f e c t , i t was and r e m a i n s t o d a y , a g i a n t sys t em w i t h f eedback f o r c h a n g e . F e d e r a l r e g u l a t i o n o f t h e g r a i n t r a d e was i n i t i a t e d i n 1888 when g r ades were e s t a b l i s h e d f o r W e s t e r n S p r i n g w h e a t . The W i n n i p e g G r a i n and Produce Exchange was e s t a b l i s h e d i n 1887 and i n c o r p o r a t e d i n 1891 f o r t he c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f t h e g r a i n t r a d e , and t o e s t a b l i s h i d e a l conduc t f o r t h e t r a d e . A n o t h e r s t a t u t e o f Canada p a s s e d i n 1889 p r o v i d e d f o r a W e s t e r n S t a n d a r d s B o a r d f o r g o v e r n i n g i n s p e c t i o n o f g r a i n , L e g i s l a t i o n i n 1889 c r e a t e d an I n s p e c t i o n D i s t r i c t o f M a n i t o b a f o r f u r t h e r i n s p e c t i o n o f g r a i n i n t r a n s i t a t W i n n i p e g , g i v i n g t h e o p p o r t u n i t y o f r e i n s p e c t i o n a t t h e t e r m i n a l i f a f a r m e r was n o t s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e g rade r e c e i v e d . By t h e end o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y , g e n e r a l g r a i n l e g i s l a t i o n c o v e r e d 5 I b i d . , p .283. 26 i n s p e c t i o n o f w e i g h t s and m e a s u r e s , d e f i n i t i o n and i n s p e c -t i o n o f t h e g r a d e s o f g r a i n , and i n s p e c t i o n o f e l e v a t o r s c a l e s . Mos t o f t h e s e r e g u l a t i o n s were passed ' as a consequence o f g r a i n d e a l e r s * r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s , a l t h o u g h t h e y were o f b e n e f i t t o t h e f a r m e r , The re were two g r i e v a n c e s t h a t f a r m e r s h e l d a g a i n s t t h e C a n a d i a n P a c i f i c R a i l w a y . F r e i g h t r a t e s were one o f t h e m a j o r c o m p l a i n t s , as r a t e s were h i g h e r i n t h e wes t t h a n t h e e a s t . The C . P . R . a r g u e d t h a t r a t e d i s c r i m i n a t i o n was j u s t i -f i e d . However t h e r a i l r o a d l o s t i t s monopo ly i n 1 8 8 8 . The appo in tmen t o f a r a i l w a y r a t e s c o m m i s s i o n i n 1 8 9 4 f i n a l l y c u l m i n a t e d i n t h e w e l l - k n o w n C r o w ' s Nes t P a s s Agreement o f 1 8 9 7 , s t i l l p a r t i a l l y i n e f f e c t . B a s i c a l l y , i t p r o v i d e d f a r m e r s w i t h l o w c o s t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f o r g r a i n and s u p p l i e s . A l t h o u g h many c o n c e s s i o n s were g i v e n t o t h e r a i l r o a d , most o f t h e s t i p u l a t i o n s o f t h e agreement have been r e n o u n c e d . However , e x p o r t g r a i n i s s t i l l t r a n s p o r t e d a t s t a t u t o r y n C r o w ' s N e s t r a t e s w h i c h a p p e a r t o be r e l a t i v e l y l o w . The second c o m p l a i n t o f f a r m e r s was t h a t monopo ly powers g i v e n by t h e C . P . R . t o f i r m s f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s o f a s t a n d a r d s i z e 0 l e d t o h i g h c o s t s and l a c k o f c o m p e t i t i o n . These c o m p l a i n t s c u l m i n a t e d i n t h e a p p o i n t m e n t o f a c o m m i s s i o n i n 1 8 9 9 . Recommendat ions were i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e M a n i t o b a G r a i n A c t . A l t h o u g h t h e a c t H . S . P a t t o n , G r a i n G r o w e r s ' C o o p e r a t i o n i n W e s t e r n Canada ( C a m b r i d g e , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 2 8 " ) , p p . 2 7 - 2 8 , ^ R e p o r t o f t h e R o y a l Commiss ion on T r a n s p o r t ( O t t a w a : Q u e e n ' s P r i n t e r and C o n t r o l l e r o f S t a t i o n e r y , 1 9 6 1 ) , p p . 3 7 1 - 3 7 9 . S i z e g r e a t e r t h a n 25,000 b u s h e l s . 2 7 p r o v i d e d f o r l o a d i n g p l a t f o r m s , adequa te i n s p e c t i o n , i m p a r -t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c a r s , and a c o m m i s s i o n e r t o i n v e s t i g a t e c o m p l a i n t s t h e r e was p o o r e n f o r c e m e n t , and t h e a c t was amended i n 1 9 0 3 t o p r e v e n t i n e q u i t a b l e b o x - c a r d i s t r i b u t i o n . D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d , f a r m o r g a n i z a t i o n s were f o rmed w h i c h a t t e m p t e d t o o b t a i n f a r m e r c o n t r o l o f t h e g r a i n t r a d e . These f a r m e r s t u r n e d t h e i r a t t e n t i o n t o t h e e l e v a t o r sys tems and began c o o p e r a t i v e a c t i o n t h r o u g h t h e o p e r a t i o n o f e l e v a t o r s i n 1 9 1 2 . T h i s movement l e d t o t h e U . G . G . i n 1 9 1 7 (an a m a l g a -m a t i o n o f A l b e r t a and M a n i t o b a e l e v a t o r s ) w i t h t h e S a s k a t -chewan company r e m a i n i n g i n d e p e n d e n t . The W i n n i p e g Exchange p r o v i d e d one o f t h e o t h e r t a r g e t s , becoming a p o l i t i c a l i s s u e i n w h i c h f a r m e r s had c o n s i d e r a b l e p o w e r ^ . The r e s u l t was t h e Canada G r a i n A c t o f 1 9 1 2 r e f e r r e d t o by MacG ibbon as ? t h e Magna C h a r t a o f t h e C a n a d i a n g r a i n g r o w e r 7 T h i s A c t c o n s o l i d a t e d t h e M a n i t o b a G r a i n A c t and t h e M a n i t o b a I n s p e c t i o n A c t , and c r e a t e d t h e Boa rd o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s . By t h e eve o f W o r l d War I, t h e C a n a d i a n government had become p r a c t i s e d i n t h e a d j u s t m e n t o f p o l i c y i n t h e f a c e o f c h a n g i n g c o n d i t i o n s wrought i n w e s t e r n C a n a d a . The war p e r i o d was no e x c e p t i o n as t h e f e d e r a l government p r o v i d e d l e g i s l a t i o n f o r government m a r k e t i n g i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s 1 1 . 9 D . A . M a c G i b b o n , The C a n a d i a n G r a i n T rade ( T o r o n t o : M a c m i l l a n , 1 9 3 2 ) , p . 4 9 . 1 0 I b i d . , p . 3 7 5 . 1 1 N ,W. M e n z i e s , C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d and t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l  Wheat T rade ( P h . D . T h e s i s , London S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s , 1 9 5 6 ) , p p . 9 3 - 9 8 " : D . A . M a c G i b b o n , The G r a i n T rade ( T o r o n t o : U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1 9 3 2 ) . , p p . 5 7 - 6 1 . 28. Postwar conditions forced continuing government action i n grain marketing f o r the retention of export markets. The re s u l t was the Canadian Wheat Board of 1917, formed i n a s i m i l a r manner to that of Australia's marketing agency. The Board was charged with the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of acting as a monopolist f o r the marketing of wheat i n the domestic and export markets. Farmers received an i n i t i a l payment (the minimum price) and p a r t i c i p a t i o n c e r t i f i c a t e s e n t i t l i n g the farmer to share i n the surplus monies accruing from pooled 1 p sales of wheat above that of the i n i t i a l price . The Board ceased a c t i v i t y i n 1920 although provisions were that the body could act i n situations which warranted the use of the govern-ment agency. Conditions of 1921-23 gave r i s e to farmer de-mands f o r the r e v i v a l of the Board-*-3. These demands were refused, consequently, dynamic farm leaders such as McPhail, Saprio, and Henry Wise Wood formed p r o v i n c i a l pools which acted as sales agents f o r the producer under a yearly con-t r a c t . As such, the pools were extremely successful, expand-ing a c t i v i t i e s to include operation of t h e i r own l i n e ele-vators. P o l i c i e s of d i r e c t s e l l i n g and s t a b i l i t y of payment induced farmer patronage, but overextension of f i n a n c i a l organization resulted i n bankruptcy i n 1930. Federal authority was used to underwrite credit (which was paid back) with the s t i p u l a t i o n that McFarland be placed i n charge of a quasi-public holding and s t a b i l i z a t i o n b o a r d — e s s e n t i a l l y a central s e l l i n g agency. l 2Menzies, op_. c i t . , pp. 98-108. l 3 I b i d . , pp. 109-122. 2 9 A l t h o u g h t h e Exchange was under a t t a c k by t h e f a r m e r s , t h e R o y a l Commiss ion on T r a d i n g i n G r a i n F u t u r e s r e p o r t e d i n 1 9 3 1 t h a t t h e Exchange was i n n o c e n t o f t h e c h a r g e s . The d e -p r e s s i o n was a s e v e r e b l ow t o t h e t r a d e even t hough Canada o b t a i n e d a p r e f e r r e d p o s i t i o n i n t h e B r i t i s h marke t f o r w h e a t , and s u p p o r t e d t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Wheat Agreement o f 1 9 3 3 . A n emergency Wheat B o a r d was fo rmed i n 1 9 3 5 t o l i q u i d a t e s u r p l u s s t o c k s 1 ^ . The B o a r d was a v o l u n t a r y agency w i t h o n l y a minimum f l o o r p r i c e u n d e r w r i t t e n by t h e g o v e r n -men t . F a r m e r s had t h e a l t e r n a t i v e o f s e l l i n g i n t h e open marke t i f t h e open marke t p r i c e was h i g h e r t h a n t h e f l o o r p r i c e p l u s e x p e c t e d r e t u r n s on t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n c e r t i f i c a t e . T h e f e d e r a l government a p p o i n t e d t h e R o y a l G r a i n I n q u i r y Com-m i s s i o n unde r M r . J u s t i c e T u r g e o n s . H i s r e p o r t c e n t e r e d on i n a d e q u a c i e s o f t h e m a r k e t , bu t recommenda t ions h i n t e d a t t h e c o n t i n u a n c e o f t h e b o a r d . The government e l e c t e d t o adop t t h e m a j o r p a r t s o f t h e r e p o r t bu t r a n i n t o such s t r o n g o b j e c t i o n s f r om f a r m e r s t h a t t h e B o a r d was r e t a i n e d . P r o d u c e r s wan ted income s t a b i l i t y a s p r o v i d e d by t h e B o a r d , r a t h e r t h a n t h e economic i d e a l s o f f r e e t r a d e a d v o c a t e d by T u r g e o n s . S t o c k s o f wheat were i n c r e a s i n g r a p i d l y due t o t h e l o s s o f t h e E u r o p e a n m a r k e t s ; and t o i n c r e a s e l i v e s t o c k p r o -d u c t i o n , t h e government i n i t i a t e d p r o d u c t i o n c o n t o l s o f wheat i n 1 9 4 1 . The c o n t r o l s l i m i t e d t h e amount o f wheat t h e Board w o u l d r e c e i v e , and c o m p e n s a t i o n payments were made by t h e Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r e . By 1 9 4 7 t o t a l s u b s i d i e s p a i d o u t , 1 9 4 1 - 4 7 , amounted t o o v e r $ 4 0 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 f o r t h e v a r i o u s 1 4 T h e A c t gave w ide powers t o t h e B o a r d f o r comp le te c o n t r o l o f t h e m a r k e t i n g o f wheat i n t h e u n p r o c l a i m e d S e c t i o n s 9 t o 1 1 and 1 6 . 30 programs t o l i m i t wheat a c r e a g e and promote d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n . F u r t h e r government i n t e r v e n t i o n , t h e c l o s i n g o f t h e f r e e marke t s y s t e m , d u r i n g 1943 p r o v i d e d t h e B o a r d w i t h com-p l e t e powers i n t h e m a r k e t i n g o f g r a i n i n o r d e r t o meet C a n a d i a n commi t tments a b r o a d , and t o c o n t r o l i n f l a t i o n a r y t e n d e n c i e s i n t h e economy. At t h e c l o s e o f W o r l d War I I , i t was e v i d e n t t h a t t h e p r o d u c e r s d e s i r e d p r i c e s t a b i l i t y and some g u a r a n t e e o f r e t u r n s . Thus p a r t l y as a r e s u l t o f t h e e x p e r i e n c e s o f t h e e a r l y n i n e t e e n - t h i r t i e s , and p a r t l y as a r e s u l t o f t h e w a r , Canada a p p e a r e d t o be d r i f t i n g i n t o a sys tem o f s t a t e t r a d i n g f o r one o f i t s most i m p o r -t a n t c o m m o d i t i e s <r-> The B r i t i s h Wheat Agreement o f 1946 p r o v i d e d s e c u r i t y t o t h e f a r m e r a g a i n s t a p o s t - w a r s l u m p , even t hough t o t a l r e t u r n s were l o w e r t h a n c o u l d have been o b t a i n e d i n t h e open m a r k e t . A c o m p r e h e n s i v e programme o f m a r k e t i n g t h r o u g h i n t e r n a t i o n a l a r rangement was a g r e e d t o i n 1 9 4 9 . The C . W . B . c o n t r o l was e x t e n d e d t o o a t s and b a r l e y on Augus t 1, 1 9 4 8 . The B o a r d , w i t h m i n o r amendments, r e m a i n s t h e same t o d a y as i t was i n 1 9 4 9 — t h e s o l e agency i n t h e m a r k e t i n g o f W e s t e r n C a n a d i a n g r a i n s . The P r a i r i e G r a i n Advance Payments A c t o f 1957 p r o -v i d e s c a s h advance on f a r m s t o r e d g r a i n t h r o u g h t h e C . W . B . The Temporary Wheat R e s e r v e A c t o f 1956 p r o v i d e s payment o f s t o r a g e and i n t e r e s t on C . W . B . s t o c k s i n c o m m e r c i a l s t o r a g e . The re i s much l e f t t o be s a i d . The h i s t o r y can be a n a l y z e d f rom v a r i o u s v i e w p o i n t s , such as m a r k e t i n g s t r u c t u r e , 15 D . A . M c G i b b o n , C a n a d i a n G r a i n T rade 1931-1951 ( T o r o n t o : U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1 9 5 2 ) , p . 5 9 . 31 p o l i c y , d e v e l o p m e n t , g r o w t h , p o l i t i c s . The above a n a l y s i s i s o n l y a b i r d - e y e v i e w l e a v i n g many i m p o r t a n t d e t a i l s o u t , and y e t i n d i c a t i n g some o f t h e more i m p o r t a n t c h a n g e s . I I . SECTORS INVOLVED IN THE GRAIN MARKETING SYSTEM The C a n a d i a n government i s b a s i c a l l y t h e m a r k e t i n g a u t h o r i t y f o r C a n a d i a n g r a i n , whe reas p r i v a t e e n t e r p r i s e p r o v i d e s t h e p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e d i n t h e t r a d e as shown i n F i g u r e 1. The i n i t i a l l i n k i n t h e c h a i n i s t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f g r a i n by t h e f a r m e r . The n e x t l i n k , t h e c o u n -t r y e l e v a t o r s y s t e m , i n c l u d e s b o t h f a r m e r owned c o o p e r a t i v e s and p r i v a t e l y owned c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s . The c o u n t r y e l e v a -t o r s a r o s e f r o m h i s t o r i c and economic p r e s s u r e . T h e i r f u n c -t i o n i s t o r e c e i v e , g r a d e , s t o r e , b l e n d , s h i p , and pay t h e f a r m e r i n i t i a l p r i c e s f o r h i s g r a i n . The n e x t l i n k i n t h e sequence i s t h a t o f t h e r a i l -r o a d compan ies t r a n s p o r t i n g t h e g r a i n f r o m t h e p r i m a r y p r o -d u c e r t o e x p o r t p o s i t i o n . A l s o i n v o l v e d i n t h e t r a n s p o r t a -t i o n o f g r a i n a r e t r u c k s w h i c h remove g r a i n f r o m t h e c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r and d e l i v e r t o t h e c e r t a i n s p e c i a l i z e d marke ts 0 , how-e v e r such s h i p m e n t s a r e o f r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l m a g n i t u d e . The n e x t p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t y i n v o l v e s t h e p o i n t o f f i n a l d o m e s t i c d e l i v e r y . I n most i n s t a n c e s t h i s f a c i l i t y i s a t t h e p o r t , where g r a i n i s h a n d l e d f o r t h e e x p o r t m a r k e t s . There a r e a l s o i m p o r t a n t d o m e s t i c m a r k e t s , f o r e x a m p l e , b r e v i e r s , f l o u r m i l l s , and f e e d m i l l s . H A R V E S T G r o i n ^ on Form Del iver Groin T o Country Elevator Groin in j Country v-EI evoiorJ Count ry Elevator O r d e r s Cars R o i l way Spots Cars L o a d -Car s R a i l w a y P icks Up C a r s Wheat B o o r d S e t s Quote I i E l e v a t o r C o s . Issue Orders To Country E levators C o n f i r m e d By Wheot B o o r d - e q e n d | Phys ica l Movement •-- Act ivates — Report s RAILWAY SYSTEM forecast U n c o n f i r m e d S o l e s W h e o t B o o r d S e l l s G r a i n C o n t r a c t S i g n e d 3 0 D a y P e r i o d Wheat B o o r d E st imates T o t a l D e m o n d Wheat B o a r d tssues O r d e r s T o E l e v a t o r C o s . Wheat B o o r d E s t i m a t e s C o r R e q u i r e m e n t s F i gu r e I . Gro in c o n t r o l s y s t e m Source. Kates, Peat, Warwick, ft Co., "The Transportat ion and Handl ing Gro in Short-Term Recommendat ions," Port One of tjig West Coo St Com modify Sjudv, Prepared f o r Depar tment of T r a n spo r t , Gov ' t of Canada (Toronto-. May, 1967) 33 T h u s , f o u r i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r s a r e i n v o l v e d — t h e f a r m e r , t h e c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s y s t e m , t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m , and t h e f i n a l t e r m i n a l . I n t e r a c t i n g upon a l l f o u r s e c t o r s a r e t h e o v e r a l l marke t i n s t i t u t i o n s . T h i s i n c l u d e s t h e W i n n i p e g G r a i n Exchange p r o v i d i n g f a c i l i t i e s f o r t h e t r a d i n g o f g r a i n . The government i s i n v o l v e d i n g r a i n t r a d e f i r s t l y t h r o u g h t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d , w h i c h a c t s as t h e s o l e agency f o r t h e m a r k e t i n g o f w h e a t , o a t s , and b a r l e y p r o -duced i n W e s t e r n Canada,, I t t h u s i n t e r a c t s w i t h t h e f a r m e r , e l e v a t o r , r a i l r o a d , and t e r m i n a l m a r k e t i n g p o s i t i o n , and s e c o n d l y ; t h e B o a r d o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s , w h i c h r e g u l a t e s t h e g r a d i n g and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f g r a i n . T h i s l a t t e r body i s o l d e r t h a n t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d , b e i n g fo rmed w i t h t h e p a s s a g e o f t h e C a n a d i a n G r a i n A c t o f 1912. The Depar tment o f T rade and Commerce i s a l s o a c t i v e l y engaged i n t h e g r a i n t r a d e v i a t h e e x p o r t o f g r a i n i n t h e c a p a c i t y o f a body c o l l e c t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n , i n t e r -n a t i o n a l l y , f o r use by t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d and i n government t o government t r a d i n g , I I I . A BRIEF RESUME^ OF THE ACTIV IT IES OF THE CANADIAN WHEAT BOARD The C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d was e s t a b l i s h e d under t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat Boa rd A c t o f 1935. The A c t d e f i n e s t h e o b j e c t o f t h e B o a r d as t h e " m a r k e t i n g i n an o r d e r l y manner., i n 34 i n t e r p r o v i n c i a l and export trade of grain grown i n Canada, '""^  The Board undertakes the marketing of wheat, barley, and oats grown i n the designated area, which includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and parts of B r i t i s h Columbia and Ontario, on behalf of the producers. Organization. The Board i s a crown agency but i s governed by i t s own Act of Incorporation. Although the f i v e members, which form the nucleus of the Board, are appointed by the government, the Board has j u r i s d i c t i o n over i t s o f f i c i a l s and s t a f f , none of whom are c i v i l servants. The operations of the board are financed by guaranteed bank c r e d i t , owning no c a p i t a l assets other than the head o f f i c e b u i lding i n Winnipeg. A l l f a c i l i t i e s required f o r movement of grain are contributed by parties to mutual agreement and act as agents of the Board i n performing t h e i r special functions. As such, the Board has extremely great power i n the grain trade as i t has the sole authority to buy, take delivery of, store, t r a n s f e r , s e l l , ship, or otherwise dispose of grain. Handling Agreement. Each year the Board meets with the representatives of the elevator companies f o r the negotia-t i o n of a grain handling margin, that i s , the charge f o r handling a bushel of grain and the storage charge on the grains. The bargaining i s probably s i m i l a r to that involved i n b i l a t e r a l monopoly, as the Board attempts to provide minimum marketing costs, while the elevator companies desire "^Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Canada Year Book 1963-64 (Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1964), p.878. 3 5 a h i g h r a t e o f e a r n i n g and t o be a b l e t o m a i n t a i n t h e i r p h y s i c a l p l a n t a t a h i g h d e g r e e o f e f f i c i e n c y . The economic mode l o f b i l a t e r a l monopo ly i s however no t c o m p l e t e l y a p -p l i c a b l e as t h r e e ma jo r e l e v a t o r compan ies a r e c o o p e r a t i v e l y owned by f a r m e r s . A p p r o p r i a t e mode l o f b e h a v i o u r i n such 1 7 c i r c u m s t a n c e s i s j u s t b e i n g d e v e l o p e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e The j o i n t s t o c k company may a l s o have d i f f e r e n t o b j e c t i v e s , a s b o t h o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e f a r m e r owned. When agreement i s r e a c h e d , " . . . t h e e l e v a t o r com-p a n i e s become a g e n t s o f t h e B o a r d t o r e c e i v e , s t o r e , and 18 s h i p . g r a i n f o r t h e B o a r d . " The e l e v a t o r a c c e p t s t h e f a r m e r ' s g r a i n f o r d e l i v e r y t o t h e B o a r d i n t e r m i n a l p o s i -t i o n , and pays t h e i n i t i a l p r i c e m inus h a n d l i n g c h a r g e s and r a i l t a r i f f . The company i s t h e n r e i m b u r s e d by t h e Boa rd a t t i m e o f d e l i v e r y a t e x p o r t p o s i t i o n . I n 1 9 6 6 - 6 7 t h e h a n d l i n g m a r g i n was 5 l / 4 c e n t s p e r b u s h e l f o r wheat and b a r l e y and 4 c e n t s p e r b u s h e l f o r o a t s . The c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r and t e r m i n a l s t o r a g e r a t e s were l / 3 0 o f a cen t p e r b u s h e l p e r day f o r w h e a t , o a t s , and b a r l e y . I n i t i a l and F i n a l P a y m e n t s . I n i t i a l payments a r e e s t a b l i s h e d a n n u a l l y on t h e b a s i c g rade o f each g r a i n by an O r d e r i n C o u n c i l . The B o a r d t h e n s e t s p r i c e s a c c o r d i n g t o 17 E . D . Domarj "The S o v i e t C o l l e c t i v e Farm as a P r o d u c e r C o -o p e r a t i v e " , A m e r i c a n Economic R e v i e w , LVI (September 1 9 6 6 ) , P P . 7 3 4 - 5 7 ; P . G . H o l m b e r g e r , " C o o p e r a t i v e E n t e r p r i s e as a S t r u c t u r a l D i m e n s i o n o f Farm M a r k e t " , J o u r n a l o f Farm E c o n -o m i c s , X L V I (Augus t 1 9 6 4 ) , p p . 6 0 3 - 1 7 ; J o a n R o b i n s o n , "The S o v i e t C o l l e c t i v e Farm as a P r o d u c e r C o o p e r a t i v e " , A m e r i c a n  Economic R e v i e w , • L V I I (March 1967), p p . 2 2 2 - 2 2 3 ; and W . Y . O i and E . M . C l a y t o n , " A P e a s a n t ' s V i e w o f a S o v i e t C o l l e c t i v e . F a r m " , A m e r i c a n Economic R e v i e w . L V I I I : l ( M a r c h 1 9 6 S ) , p p . 3 7 - 5 9 . L . D . N e s b i t t , T i d e s i n t h e West ( S a s k a t o o n : Modern P r e s s , I 9 6 0 ) , p . 3 2 3 . 3 6 t h e d i f f e r e n t i a l s between t h e r e m a i n i n g g r a d e s o f each g r a i n . These p r i c e s a r e e s s e n t i a l l y f l o o r p r i c e s f o r each g rade o f g r a i n . The i n i t i a l payment i s t h e g r o s s p r i c e r e c e i v e d by t h e p r o d u c e r a t t h e e l e v a t o r . I n i t i a l payment , m inus h a n d l i n g and r a i l t a r i f f s , y i e l d s payment t o t h e f a r m e r . The f i n a l payment i s u s u a l l y made i n t h e f o l l o w i n g c r o p y e a r . F o r i n s t a n c e , t h e 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 f i n a l payment was p a i d i n F e b r u a r y and March o f 1 9 6 6 , I n t e r i m payments a r e somet imes made i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g t h e c l o s e o f t h e c r o p y e a r . The b a s i c a c c o u n t i s h a n d l e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner : Wheat S o l d m inus Wheat A c q u i r e d = S u r p l u s . From t h i s i n i t i a l s u r p l u s a l l c h a r g e s i n c u r r e d by t h e B o a r d , such as s t o r a g e ( a f t e r t h e f i r s t 1 5 d a y s ) and i n t e r n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , a r e s u b t r a c t e d l e a v i n g a p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e q u a n t i t y . I f t h e f o r m e r e x i s t s , f i n a l payments a r e made, whereas t h e government pays t h e d e f i c i t i f t h e l a t t e r o c c u r s . An i n t e r e s t i n g mode l c o u l d be b u i l d u s i n g e x p e c -t a t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e f i n a l payment as t h e b a s i s f o r d e c i d i n g w h e t h e r o r no t t o s e l l g r a i n s t h r o u g h t h e B o a r d o r d i s p o s e o f them l o c a l l y . D e l i v e r y Q u o t a s . The B o a r d e s t a b l i s h e s q u o t a s t h r o u g h o u t t h e y e a r . Quo tas a r e s p e c i f i e d amounts o f g r a i n w h i c h can be d e l i v e r e d t o t h e d e s i g n a t e d p o i n t , b a s e d upon 19 s p e c i f i e d a c r e a g e . The m a j o r p u r p o s e i s " t o p r e v e n t c h a o t i c 2 0 c o n g e s t i o n and e x c e s s i v e q u e u i n g t h a t c o u l d r e s u l t . . . " 1 9 S p e c i f i e d a c r e a g e i n c l u d e s w h e a t , o a t s , b a r l e y , s u m m e r f a l l o w , r y e , and c u l t i v a t e d l a n d p r o d u c i n g e l i g i b l e f o r a g e c r o p s . 2 0 A . W . Wood, " T e c h n o l o g i c a l Changes i n P r o c e s s i n g , M a r k e t i n g , • and D i s t r i b u t i o n and t h e i r impac t upon C a n a d i a n A g r i c u l t u r e " , C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , X : l ( 1 9 6 2 ) , p . 5 6 . 37 Q u e u i n g a t h a r v e s t t i m e c o u l d r e a d i l y o c c u r , as t h e r e i s no i n c e n t i v e f o r p r o d u c e r s t o s t o r e g r a i n i f t h e g r a i n i s t o be s o l d t h r o u g h t h e C . W . B . The f a r m e r w o u l d a t t emp t t o s e l l a l l g r a i n as i t i s h a r v e s t e d , as t h e p r i c e r e m a i n s c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e c r o p y e a r , and by d e l a y e d s a l e , w o u l d f o r e g o i n t e r e s t w h i c h w o u l d a c c r u e f r om t h e e a r l y s a l e o f g r a i n . The method o f p o o l i n g p r o v i d e s an i n c e n t i v e t o s h i p d i r e c t l y as a f a r m e r w o u l d e f f e c t a change i n t h e i n c i d e n c e o f c o s t s a p p l i c a b l e t o h i s g r a i n . The q u o t a does no t p l a c e r e s t r i c t i o n s upon p r o d u c -t i o n . I t p r o v i d e s a p a r t i a l s o l u t i o n t o e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u -t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e e l e v a t o r space t o each f a r m e r . The f a r m e r i s g i v e n t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o s h i p an amount o f g r a i n w h i c h i s a f u n c t i o n o f h i s q u o t a . The q u o t a i s e s s e n t i a l l y bounded by empty e l e v a t o r s p a c e — l a r g e l y a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y and d i s t r i b u t i o n o f box c a r s , and t h e amount o f g r a i n i n e x p o r t p o s i t i o n and r a t e o f e x p o r t s a l e . (Even t h o u g h a q u o t a i s o p e n , a f a r m e r may no t be a b l e t o d e l i v e r a s t h e e l e v a t o r ( s ) may be c o n g e s t e d . ) A t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f each c r o p y e a r , a f a r m e r must s e l e c t a d e l i v e r y p o i n t w h i c h cannot be changed d u r i n g t h e d u r a t i o n o f a c r o p y e a r . He i s p e r m i t t e d t o d e l i v e r g r a i n t o any e l e v a t o r a t t h e chosen p o i n t . At t h e same t i m e , a u n i t q u o t a i s s e t b a s e d upon t h e f a r m u n i t r a t h e r t h a n s i z e . Subsequen t q u o t a s a r e b a s e d on s p e c i f i e d a c r e a g e . The q u o t a s a r e t h e n p e r i o d i c a l l y i n c r e a s e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e space a v a i l -a b l e a t i n d i v i d u a l p o i n t s . The f a r m e r can h a u l i m m e d i a t e l y t o f i l l h i s q u o t a , e . g . one b u s h e l p e r s p e c i f i e d a c r e o f 38 any g r a i n , o r d e l i v e r a t any t i m e amounts t o b r i n g t o t a l d e l i v e r i e s e q u a l t o t h e a c c u m u l a t e d q u o t a . F l a x and r a p e -s e e d , h o w e v e r , have a s p e c i a l q u o t a as t h e y a r e h a n d l e d by t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d , bu t no t m a r k e t e d . Depend ing upon b i n s p a c e , an e l e v a t o r agen t can r e f u s e d i f f e r e n t k i n d s o r g r a d e s o f g r a i n . The C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d a t t e m p t s t o r a i s e q u o t a s u n i f o r m l y t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u n t r y . T h i s i s d i f f i c u l t o r i m p o s s i b l e a t t i m e s d e p e n d i n g upon t h e p a r t i c u l a r k i n d s and g r a i n s r e q u i r e d a t e x p o r t p o s i t i o n . The f a r m e r s have t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o f o i l t h e scheme, as t h e y do no t have t o s h i p t he v a r i o u s k i n d s o r g r a d e s on demand, n o r a r e t h e y on r e q u i r e d t o f i l l t h e i r q u o t a a t any t i m e . I t i s p o s s i b l e f o r i n d i v i d u a l s t o t h w a r t t h e sys tem by s h i p p i n g g r a i n f o r o t h e r p r o d u c e r s , r e c e i v e some payment , and f e e d o r s e l l h i s own g r a i n t h r o u g h o t h e r c h a n n e l s . Such a c t i o n s a r e i l l e g a l . The re a r e t h r e e p r o c e d u r e s u s e d t o i n c r e a s e t h e 22 s p e c i f i e d a c r e a g e d e l i v e r y q u o t a s . (1) The Key Agent a t each p o i n t can w i r e t h e Wheat B o a r d a s k i n g f o r a q u o t a i n c r e a s e a f t e r c o n s u l t i n g w i t h t h e o t h e r a g e n t s a t t h e p o i n t . The q u o t a i s i n c r e a s e d i m m e d i a t e l y i f t h e w i r e i s s i g n e d by t h e k e y agent o r a l l a g e n t s . (2) I f t h e r e i s no r e q u e s t , t h e Wheat B o a r d may i n c r e a s e t h e q u o t a when t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t space a t t h e p o i n t t o t a k e i n g r a i n d e l i v e r a b l e 21 T r y c h n i e w i c z and T a n g r i , OJJ. c i t . , p . 87. 22 J . L . L e i b f r i e d , P e r s o n a l C o m m u n i c a t i o n , Ma rch 12, 1968. 3 9 on t h e p r e s e n t q u o t a p l u s 5 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o t e n t i a l l y d e l i v e r a b l e on a one b u s h e l p e r s p e c i f i e d a c r e i n c r e m e n t . A l l p o i n t s a r e checked each T h u r s d a y t o see i f q u o t a s can be r a i s e d by t h i s me thod . Checks a r e made a t any t i m e a r e p o r t by a Wheat B o a r d I n s p e c t o r i n d i c a t e s t h e q u o t a can be i n c r e a s e d a t a p o i n t . ( 3 ) The l a s t method c h e c k s t h e second p o l i c y i f a r e q u e s t i s made by any agent a t a p o i n t . I f t h i s i s no t p o s s i b l e , t h e n a l l a g e n t s a t t h e p o i n t a r e c o n t a c t e d t o see i f t h e y w i l l ag ree t o an i n c r e a s e as o u t -l i n e d by t h e f i r s t me thod . The e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e q u o t a sys tem can be q u e s -t i o n e d . O b v i o u s l y , t h e r e a r e f a u l t s i n t h e sys tem as i n -d i c a t e d by f a r m e r r e a c t i o n s . The e l e v a t o r compan ies a r e a l l o w e d t o e x e r t c e r t a i n powers t o p r e v e n t q u o t a i n c r e a s e s . The p h i l o s o p h y o f a t t e m p t i n g t o keep a l l q u o t a s e q u a l can a l s o be q u e s t i o n e d . R e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n i s a f f e c t e d , and i t i s q u i t e l i k e l y t h e sys tem c r e a t e s d i f f e r e n t i a l p r e s s u r e 23 f o r a d j u s t m e n t between r e g i o n s and i n d i v i d u a l s . However , u n t i l r e s u l t s o f a comp le te a n a l y s i s show a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s , and p r o v i d e b e t t e r a l t e r n a t i v e s , such c r i t i c i s m o n l y i n v i t e s r e s e a r c h . G r a i n Movement . The movement o f g r a i n f r om c o u n t r y p o i n t s t o t e r m i n a l p o s i t i o n i n v o l v e s t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d , t h e g r a i n h a n d l i n g c o m p a n i e s , and t h e r a i l r o a d s . The A . W . Wood ? " T e c h n o l o g i c a l Changes i n P r o c e s s i n g , M a r k e t i n g , and D i s t r i b u t i o n and t h e i r i m p a c t upon C a n a d i a n A g r i c u l t u r e " , C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s . X : l ( 1 9 6 2 ) , p . 5 6 ; T y r c h n i e w i c z and T a n g r i , l o c . c i t . 40 24 m a i n i n s t r u m e n t o f c o n t r o l i s t h e s h i p p i n g o r d e r . The b a s i c method o f a l l o c a t i n g t h e o r d e r s be tween compan ies i s b a s e d on t h e amount o f b u s i n e s s ea rned by each e l e v a t o r company i n t h e l a s t t w e l v e m o n t h s , t h a t i s , a t w e l v e month m o v i n g a v e r a g e o f r e c e i p t s . The o r d e r i s an i n s t r u c t i o n i s s u e d by t h e B o a r d t o t h e e l e v a t o r company t o s h i p a s p e c i f i e d q u a n t i t y and g rade o f a g i v e n g r a i n f r o m a c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r t o t e r m i n a l p o s i t i o n . The Wheat B o a r d e s t i m a t e s t h e amount o f g r a i n t o be moved f rom t h e c o u n t r y by d e s t i n a t i o n and g rade on t h e b a s i s o f s a l e s and space a v a i l a b l e a t t h e t e r m i n a l s and o t h e r f o r w a r d p o s i t i o n s . The s h i p p i n g o r d e r s a r e sen t t o t h e e l e v a t o r compan ies who t h e n a l l o c a t e t h e s e o r d e r s t o i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s . A l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s a r e b a s e d on t h e q u o t a l e v e l s , a v a i l a b l e s t o r a g e space a t t h e i r e l e v a t o r s , s t o c k s i n s t o r e , t h e i r c o m p e t i t i v e p o s i t i o n a t each p o i n t , and t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r o p e r a t i n g p r o b l e m s . The a g e n t s a t a p o i n t n o t i f y t h e r a i l r o a d agen t o f t h e c a r r e q u i r e m e n t s -and t h e d e s t i n a t i o n o f s h i p m e n t s . The agent f o r w a r d s t h e i n f o r m a t i o n t h r o u g h t h e a p p r o p r i a t e c h a n n e l s w i t h t h e C h i e f D i s p a t c h e r i n i t i a t i n g an a p p r o p r i a t e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f empty box c a r s t o t h e c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s . D e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e c a r d i s t r i b u t i o n a r e no t a l w a y s c a r r i e d ou t i n t h i s manner by l i n e o f f i c i a l s , as t h e t o p management o f t h e compan ies i n v o l v e d o f t e n make many o f t h e d e c i s i o n s . G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n T e c h n i c a l G r o u p , S h i p p i n g O r d e r s ( T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t N o . 1 , O c t o b e r , 1 9 6 7 ) , p p . 1 - 2 3 . 41 The e l e v a t o r t h e n l o a d s t h e c a r i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e s h i p p i n g o r d e r , a l t h o u g h t h e o r d e r , b o x c a r , and a c t u a l sh ipmen t do no t a l w a y s c o i n c i d e . T h i s l a c k o f c o m p l i a n c e by a g e n t s a p p e a r s t o be a c o n s i d e r a b l e p r o b l e m . The r a i l r o a d s and Wheat B o a r d work c l o s e r t o g e t h e r t h a n i n d i c a t e d , even though t h e r a i l r o a d i s g u i d e d by o n l y two documents i s s u e d by t h e Wheat B o a r d — a g e n e r a l f o u r month s t a t e m e n t and a w e e k l y r e p o r t o f q u o t a l e v e l s a t v a r i o u s p o i n t s . The m a j o r i t y o f s h i p p i n g o r d e r s can be c l a s s i f i e d i n t o f i v e t y p e s . (1) G e n e r a l o r d e r s a r e i s s u e d t o e l e v a t o r compan ies w i t h o u t any i n s t r u c t i o n s , and t h e compan ies a l l o c a t e t h e o r d e r s as t h e y w i s h . Such o r d e r s a re common i n t h e e a r l y p a r t o f t h e c r o p y e a r , b e f o r e q u o t a l e v e l p o l i c i e s a r e i n e f f e c t bu t a r e i s s u e d when a p a r t i c u l a r g r a i n and g rade a r e r e q u i r e d , , i g n o r i n g q u o t a l e v e l s . (2 ) M o d i f i e d g e n e r a l o r d e r s e n a b l e s t a t i o n s t o r e a c h t h e e x i s t i n g q u o t a l e v e l s , and a r e u s e d t o e q u a l i z e q u o t a s a c r o s s t h e c o u n t r y . They a r e a l l o c a t e d a t t h e g r a i n c o m p a n i e s ' d i s c r e t i o n bu t a r e s u b j e c t t o c a n c e l l a -t i o n u n l e s s s t a t i o n s r e q u i r i n g a s s i s t a n c e r e c e i v e t h e m , (3) S e l e c t e d S t a t i o n O r d e r s s t a t e t h e p o i n t s w h i c h r e q u i r e a s s i s t a n c e b e c a u s e o f l o w q u o t a l e v e l s , and e q u a l i z e t h e q u o t a s a t t h e end o f t h e y e a r , (4) M i l l o r d e r s a r e i s s u e d t o s h i p g r a i n f r o m s e l e c t e d p o i n t s t o t h e f l o u r m i l l . 4 2 ( 5 ) O r d e r s f o r f l a x and r a p e s e e d a r e i s s u e d on r e q u e s t by p r o d u c e r s , s u b j e c t t o s a l e o r a v a i l a b l e s p a c e . I n a d d i t i o n t h e r e a r e f o u r d i r e c t i v e s c l a s s i f i e d i n t o s p e c i a l o r d e r t y p e s . ( 1 ) " O r d e r 1 0 0 " i s a p e r m i t i s s u e d by t h e B o a r d o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s t o s h i p t ough and damp g r a i n . (2) " O r d e r 5 0 0 " i s an emergency o r d e r when a c e r -t a i n g rade o f g r a i n i s r e q u i r e d a t t h e t e r m i n a l . Such o r d e r s have p r i o r i t y o v e r a l l o t h e r o r d e r s , ( 3 ) " C o n g e s t e d E l e v a t o r O r d e r " i s r e q u e s t e d by i n -d i v i d u a l e l e v a t o r s . O r d e r 1 0 0 0 i s f o r two b o x c a r s when an e l e v a t o r o r e l e v a t o r company a t a p o i n t i s f i l l e d w i t h -i n 4 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s o f w o r k i n g c a p a c i t y , and no o t h e r o r d e r s a r e h e l d . The g r a i n sh ipmen t must be t h e h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y ) p o s s i b l e on t h e Wheat B o a r d ' s p r e f e r e n c e l i s t . An e l e v a t o r o p e r a t o r may a p p l y f o r t h e f i r s t two b o x c a r s a v a i l a b l e a t a p o i n t i f h i s e l e v a t o r i s c o n g e s t e d and i f he i s i n p o s s e s s i o n o f s h i p p i n g o r d e r s . ( 4 ) " O v e r - q u o t a p e r m i t s " f rom t h e B o a r d a r e r e -q u i r e d t o s h i p g r a i n , e . g . m a l t i n g b a r l e y , o u t s i d e t h e e x i s t i n g q u o t a l e v e l . The minimum t i m e r e q u i r e d f r om e v a l u a t i o n o f s t o c k s by t h e Wheat B o a r d t o t h e l o a d i n g o f a c a r i s f i v e and a h a l f days w h i l e t h e maximum i s f o r t y - f o u r d a y s ^ 5 t 25 G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n T e c h n i c a l G r o u p , S h i p p i n g O r d e r s . T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t N o . 1 ( W i n n i p e g : G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n T e c h n i c a l G r o u p , October^ 1 9 6 7 ) , p . 1 0 . 43 The Grain Transportation Technical Group i s study-X- • 4 .V. 4 - 2 6 ing ways of improving the system Marketing. Once the grain reaches terminal or ex-port p o s i t i o n , i t i s applied to sales, or becomes a v a i l -able f o r sale. The Board reimburses the elevator company fo r the grain plus storage and i n t e r e s t . The grain has been e s s e n t i a l l y marketed by the Board although private agencies have provided the necessary f a c i l i t i e s . Each segment acts as an agent f o r the Board including the shipping and exporting agencies. Exporters seek buyers of Canadian grain, and make necessary arrangements through the Board to obtain the desired grain. Master sales agree-ments are made by the Board on a government-to-government basis, i n which case the exporters engage i n f u l f i l l i n g supplementary contracts. However, the Board does not engage i n di r e c t competition with the agents since the merchandising of grain, i n p a r t i c u l a r wheat, requires the knowledge of a l l parts of the grain trade. The merchandising and p r i c i n g of grain are d i f f i -c u l t to separate as d i f f e r e n t functions. P r i c i n g i s very complex as price i s a function of competitors' prices, q u a l i t i e s and quantities of grain, d i f f e r e n t i a l prices between export positions, d i f f e r e n t i a l ocean f r e i g h t rates, and foreign exchange rates. The price i s announced each day i n the market place, the Winnipeg Grain Exchange, and 26 R.L. Kristjanson, "Introductory Remarks", Proceedings of the  Grain Transportation Workship Minaki •Sept. 6-8 (Winnipeg: Grain Transportation Committee, 1967J, pp.1-2. 44 i s t h e p r i c e a t w h i c h t h e B o a r d w i l l p r o v i d e g r a i n s t o i t s a g e n t s f o r d o m e s t i c and e x p o r t s a l e s . B a r l e y and oa t p r i c e s a r e l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e d i n t h e f u t u r e m a r k e t . R y e , f l a x , and r ape a r e a c c e p t e d by t h e e l e v a t o r sys tem bu t a r e no t m e r c h a n d i s e d by t h e Wheat B o a r d a l t h o u g h t h e B o a r d a d m i n i s t e r s s p e c i f i e d q u o t a s on t h e d e -l i v e r y o f f l a x and r a p e . The B o a r d makes s a l e s a t t h e d a i l y a s k i n g p r i c e , bu t a l s o p r o v i d e s a d e f e r r e d p r i c i n g p o l i c y on e x p o r t s a l e s t h u s p r o v i d i n g f l e x i b i l i t y i n f i x i n g t h e f i n a l p r i c e . The p u r c h a s e r s can choose t h e marke t p r i c e on any day f r o m t h e t i m e o f b o o k i n g t h e wheat up t o and i n c l u d i n g a s p e c i f i e d number o f marke t days a f t e r c a l l i n g f o r t h e g r a i n , o r com-p l e t i o n o f l o a d i n g a t P a c i f i c p o r t s . S a l e s P r o m o t i o n . The B o a r d depends l a r g e l y upon p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t w i t h b u y e r s o f C a n a d i a n g r a i n u s i n g t h e e x p o r t a g e n t s , t r a d e c o m m i s s i o n e r s , s a l e s m i s s i o n s , and i t s own emp loyees l o c a t e d i n m a j o r i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s . The B o a r d a l s o i n v i t e s o f f i c i a l s f r o m i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s t o t o u r C a n a d a , as g u e s t s o f t h e B o a r d . O t h e r med ia such as f i l m s , b r o c h u r e s , and d i s p l a y s a r e u s e d i n s a l e s p r o m o t i o n s . C a n a d i a n Government p o l i c y on g r a i n s , does no t o p e r a t e t o impose p a t t e r n s o f p r o d u c t i o n , s p e c i f i c g o a l s , o r o b j e c t i v e s . The a im i s t o m a i n t a i n f l e x i -b i l i t y i n p r o d u c t i o n and encourage v o l u n t a r y a d j u s t -ments on t h e p a r t o f f a r m e r s t o c h a n g i n g economic c o n d i t i o n s and g r a i n m a r k e t s . To t h i s e n d , G o v e r n -ment p o l i c y e n d e a v o r s t o m a i n t a i n a f u l l y o p e r a t i v e and e f f e c t i v e g r a i n m a r k e t i n g , h a n d l i n g , s t o r a g e and s h i p p i n g sys tem and a sys tem o f g r a d i n g d e s i g n e d t o m a i n t a i n C a n a d a ' s r e p u t a t i o n f o r h i g h q u a l i t y 45 grain crops. In addition, Canada endeavors to co-operate with other countries i n world problems a f f e c t i n g grains and i n food aid programs o^ o IV. FUNCTIONS OF THE BOARD OF GRAIN COMMISSIONERS FOR CANADA Following recognition of the need to regulate grading and transportation, the Board of Grain Commissioners was established under the authority of the Canada Grain Act of 1912. This newly formed organization was charged with the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of maintaining grade standards and con-t r o l l i n g movement of grain, i n order to maintain Canada's competitive position i n world markets. The Board adminis-t e r s the Canada Grain Act, providing general supervision over the physical handling of grain i n Canada. The q u a s i - j u d i c i a l and administrative body of three i s appointed by government and reports to the Minis-t e r of Agriculture. Inspection and Grading. The inspection branch es-tablishes a Committee on Western Grain Standards to select standard samples, f o r the statutory and commercial grades re-quired. M i l l i n g and baking tests are used f o r establishment of wheat grades. The grades are established by the committee and then samples are d i s t r i b u t e d to importing countries by the inspection branch. 26 Canada Department of Agriculture, "Canadian Grains Policy", Canadian Farm Economics (Vol. 11:1, June 1967), p.22-23. 46 The grade and dockage of grain i s assessed by the country elevator when grain i s received from the producer. I f disagreement ar i s e s , a sample i s forwarded to an inspec-t o r whose decision i s normally f i n a l , and subject only to appeal under the Grain Appeal Tribunal; with the grain de-l i v e r e d subject t c grade and dockage. The agent places an u n o f f i c i a l loading sample i n each car shipped f o r grade checking purposes providing advance information to terminal elevators and/or at shippers* request. Automatic sampling devices provide the f i n a l sample during car unloading, and each car i s then o f f i c i a l l y c e r t i f i e d as to the grade and dockage content. Inspectors safeguard the quality of grain u n t i l loaded providing "cer-t i f i c a t e s f i n a l " — u n i v e r s a l l y accepted as proof of a grade. Weighing. The Board supervises the weighing of a l l grain received into or shipped from licensed terminal eleva-t o r s . A l l scales are inspected and c e r t i f i e d as are new f a c i l i t i e s . Weights of grain are tabulated to prevent shortages and averages outside of the tolerance l e v e l s . S t a t i s t i c s D i v i s i o n . The Board requires taking and reporting of certain data. Stocks and handlings of a l l elevators are reported. Using these f i g u r e s , the Board issues s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t i n g the storage and movement of grain within the elevator system. A l l grain must carry insurance which i s c e r t i f i e d by t h i s d i v i s i o n . The d i v i s i o n i s responsible f o r c o l l e c t i o n of the one percent levy under 47 the P r a i r i e Farm Assistance Act, unless the producer i s covered under the Crop Insurance Act. Transportation of grain i s regulated by the l i c e n s i n g of a l l elevators which engage i n the receipt or discharge of western grain_ Grain cannot be transported except from or to licensed elevators, and r e s t r i c t i o n s are placed upon established grade names a l l of which must be s p e c i f i e d by the Canada Grain Act. The branch i s also responsible f o r enforcing Section 127 of the Canada Grain Act, requiring public terminals, semi-public terminals, and eastern elevators to issue warehouse receipts or transfer r e c e i p t s . Such receipts are issued f o r grain taken into store and are registered, s p e c i f i e d to grade and quantity, with the Board. The receipts are cancelled when the represented grain i s shipped out. Fees are charged for t h i s service as given i n the Canada Grain Act. Government Terminals. The Board manages and oper-ates f i v e semi-public terminal elevators at Moose Jaw, Saskatoon, Calgary, Edmonton, and Lethbridge, and one t e r -minal elevator at Prince Rupert. Grain may be stored, cleaned, and dried before being moved to terminal position at rates subject to a maximum t a r i f f allowed by the Board. In addition the Board c a r r i e s out research work on various grain problems. This provides accurate informa-t i o n regarding the q u a l i t y of grain produced, and indicates which new v a r i e t i e s should be licensed. Basic research i s 48 carried out regarding d i f f e r e n t processing techniques and other advanced research regarding the chemistry of grain, which may prove useful. The Board has authority to inquire into matters re-l a t i n g to the grading and weighing, dockage and shrinkage deductions, unfair or discriminatory operation of elevators providing the necessary p o l i c i n g of grain handling. Although b a s i c a l l y acting administrator of the Canada Grain Act, the Board i s constantly working i n partnership with other sectors i n the industry to provide better services and methods of handling grain. 49 CHAPTER IV SIMULATION AND THE GRAIN ASSEMBLY MODEL The complex and i n t e r d e p e n d e n t p rob lems w i t h i n t h e C a n a d i a n g r a i n t r a d e c a l l f o r a t e c h n i q u e t o encompass t h e sys tem and a method t o o b j e c t i v e l y examine t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p h y s i c a l c o n f i g u r a t i o n s as w e l l as changes i n i n s t i t u t i o n s and m a r k e t s . S i m u l a t i o n i s a s t o c h a s t i c t e c h n i q u e w i t h i n w h i c h a l l f a c e t s o f t h e sys tem can be i n c o r p o r a t e d and t h u s i t i s a sys tem u s e f u l i n g e n e r a l a p p r e c i a t i o n and u n d e r -s t a n d i n g . The t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n w i l l be d e s c r i b e d as a g e n e r a l c o n c e p t and as a p p l i e d t o g r a i n a s s e m b l y f r om f a r m t o e l e v a t o r . The p a r t i c u l a r mode l d e v e l o p e d i n t h i s s t u d y i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h e l o g i c d i a g r a m ; and t h e computer p rogram i s p r e s e n t e d i n A p p e n d i x I. S i m u l a t i o n — A D e f i n i t i o n . The concep t o f s i m u l a t i o n i s no t new: t h e word s i m u l a t i o n means " t o f e i g n , t o l o o k , o r a c t l i k e " ! and i s an a n c i e n t a p p r o a c h t o t h e s t u d y and use o f mode ls . The e a r l y u s e s were u s u a l l y p h y s i c a l s c a l e mode ls f r o m w h i c h p r o p e r t i e s and b e h a v i o u r o f t h e r e a l o b j e c t ^ C . L . B a r n h a r t ( e d . ) T h o r n d i k e - B a r n h a r t Comprehens ive Desk  D i c t i o n a r y ( D e l u x e E d i t i o n ; Garden C i t y : D o u b l e d a y and Company I n c . , 1957) I I , 721. 2 G . H , O r c u t t , " S i m u l a t i o n o f Economic S y s t e m s " . The A m e r i c a n  Economic R e v i e w , V o l . L , No . 5 (December I960;, 894. 5 0 c o u l d be i n f e r r e d . S i m u l a t i o n has been u s e d i n t r a i n i n g p i l o t s , so t h a t t h e i r b e h a v i o u r i n r e a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s w o u l d be t h e same as t h a t unde r s i m u l a t e d c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e i r t r a i n -i n g . A i r c r a f t d e s i g n i s t e s t e d w i t h mode ls i n w i n d t u n n e l s and p i l o t p l a n t s a re u s e d t o s t u d y complex c h e m i c a l p r o -c e s s e s . These a r e examp les o f s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s . The e x t e n s i v e use o f s i m u l a t i o n f o r e c o n o m i c s , b u s i n e s s manage-men t , and o t h e r s o c i a l s c i e n c e s has o c c u r r e d o n l y r e c e n t l y , l a r g e l y w i t h t h e deve lopment o f h i g h speed d i g i t a l computers-^ . D e f i n i t i o n s o f s i m u l a t i o n a r e b r o a d and u s u a l l y v a g u e . P o p u l a r usage o f t e n r e f e r s t o t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f t h e a p p e a r a n c e o f some th i ng w i t h o u t h a v i n g i t s r e a l i t y ^ - . The word s i m u l a t i o n i s u s e d i n a v a r i e t y o f w a y s , and o t h e r words a r e u s e d t o d e f i n e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h a r e s p e c i a l i z e d u s e s o f a s i m u l a t i o n a p p r o a c h , f o r e x a m p l e , gaming and Monte C a r l o . O r c u t t s t a t e s : " S i m u l a t i o n i s a g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h 5 t o t h e s t u d y and use o f mode lso" S h u b i k s t a t e s : " A s i m u l a -t i o n o f a sys tem o r an o r g a n i s m i s t h e o p e r a t i o n o f a mode l o r s i m u l a t o r w h i c h i s a r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e sys tem o r organismo' ; I t i s f u r t h e r e x p l a i n e d : " I n a s i m u l a t i o n , ^ A n a l o g u e s i m u l a t i o n has been used s u c h as t h e h y d r a u l i c model o f a macroeconomic sys tem a t t h e London S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s . % t . E . Dawson, " S i m u l a t i o n i n t h e S o c i a l S c i e n c e s " , S i m u l a t i o n i n S o c i a l S c i e n c e s , H.' Gue tzkow, e d i t o r (Eng lewood C l i f f s : P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , 1962), p p . 1-2. 5 O r c u t t , op_. c i t . p a893o M. S h u b i k " S i m u l a t i o n o f t h e I n d u s t r y and t h e F i r m " The A m e r i c a n Economic R e v i e w , V o l . L , No . 5 (December , I960), 909. 5 1 either the behaviour of a system or the behaviour of the individual components i s taken as given. Information con-cerning the behaviour of one or the other is inferred as a 7 result of the s i m u l a t i o n „ u ' Clarkson and Simon state: "Simulation is a technique for building theories that reproduce part or a l l of the out-put of a behaving system." The process of simulation involves the construction of a model of a system indicating the pro-cesses, ref lect ing the knowledge of and interest in the system^. Any individual simulation run yields results that are specific and might be thought of as an experiment performed on the mod The specific results would then be used inductively to infer general relationships. Models and Simulation. There is no simple statement which, in defining a model, sat i s factor i ly captures the essence of the many aspects of a model. Orcutt states: "A model of something is a representation of i t designed to incorporate those features deemed to be significant for one or more specific purposes.""^ Even though the assumptions are abstractions of rea l i ty , conclusions can be derived which have relevance to the real world. 7 Ibid. ,p910. ° G . P . E . Clarkson and H.A. Simon, "Simulation of Individual and Group Behaviour" The American Economic Review. Vol . L , No. 5 (December, I960) ,P*920. 9 I b i d . 1 0 0 r c u t t , op_. cit_,,pb894. 1 1 Ibid . s Po397. V a r i o u s l a n g u a g e s can be used by e c o n o m i s t s f o r t h e m o d e l : p r o s e , g e o m e t r y , m a t h e m a t i c s , o r compute r p r o -g rams . The c h o i c e o f l a n g u a g e depends upon t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e mode l and t h e need o f t h e s c i e n t i s t , whe reas t h e d e -g ree o f a b s t r a c t i o n depends upon t h e t y p e s o f q u e s t i o n s w h i c h t h e mode l i s d e s i g n e d t o a n s w e r . S i m u l a t i o n s t u d i e s o f t e n r e q u i r e t h e use o f a d i g i t a l compu te r ; t h u s t h e l o g i c a l l a n -guage i s an a p p r o p r i a t e computer l a n g u a g e . A good a n a l o g y t o a s i m u l a t i o n l a n g u a g e i s a s e t o f maps d i f f e r i n g i n d e -t a i l . E a c h map i s a p p r o p r i a t e f o r a d i f f e r e n t p u r p o s e . M o d e l s may be u s e d f o r e x p l a n a t i o n , p r e d i c t i o n , o r c o n t r o l . A p r e d i c t i o n i s made b e f o r e t h e e m p i r i c a l phenom-enon i s o b s e r v e d , whereas an e x p l a n a t i o n s t a r t s f r o m t h e e m p i r i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n and e x p l a i n s t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f t h e phenomenon. I t i s c o n c e p t u a l l y p o s s i b l e t h a t p r e d i c t i o n s can be made w i t h o u t adequa te e x p l a n a t i o n , bu t i f s c i e n t i f i c s t a n d a r d s demand a model t o p r o v i d e e x p l a n a t i o n as w e l l as p r e d i c t i o n , t h e n F r i e d m a n ' s b i l l i a r d p l a y e r mode l i s u n -s a t i s f a c t o r y ^ , F o r t h e p u r p o s e o f c o n t r o l , a mode l o f p r e d i c t i o n i s r e q u i r e d . However , t h e changes consequen t on t h e p r e d i c t i o n may a l t e r b a s i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h i c h p r e v i o u s -l y l e d t o a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n s , and i n t h e ' f u t u r e p r e d i c t i o n s may t h u s be l e s s a c c u r a t e 1 - ^ . Cohen and C y e r t p r o v i d e seven ^ ^ M . F r i e d m a n , "The M e t h o d o l o g y o f P o s i t i v e E c o n o m i c s " , E s s a y s  i n P o s i t i v e E c o n o m i c s ( C h i c a g o : The U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , 1953), P . 2 1 . 13 • ^ K . J . Cohen and R . M . C y e r t , Theory o f t h e F i r m : R e s o u r c e  A l l o c a t i o n • i n a M a r k e t Economy (Eng lewood C l i f f s : P r e n t i c e -H a l l , I n c . , 1 9 3 5 ) , p p . 2 4 - 2 5 . 5 3 s t e p s i n t h e deve lopment o f a m o d e l : (1) d e f i n e t h e p r o b l e m ; (2) f o r m u l a t e a p r e l i m i n a r y m o d e l ; ( 3 ) c o l l e c t e m p i r i c a l d a t a ; ( 4 ) e s t i m a t e t h e p a r a m e t e r s ; ( 5 ) s u b j e c t t h e model t o p r e l i m i n a r y t e s t s ; (6) t e s t t h e mode l f u r t h e r ; (7) a c c e p t o r r e j e c t t h e m o d e l l ^ . The u s e f u l n e s s o f s i m u l a t i o n i n mode l b u i l d i n g i s t h a t (1) s i m u l a t i o n a l l o w s t h e s t u d y o f mode ls w i t h l a r g e numbers o f componen ts , v a r i a b l e s and r e l a t i o n s among a l l f o r m s , (2) s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s e s can be made, ( 3 ) d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f a g g r e g a t i o n can be t e s t e d , and ( 4 ) s i m u l a t i o n o r Monte C a r l o t e c h n i q u e s can be u s e f u l i n m u l t i v a r i a t e s t a -1 ^  t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s . V a r i o u s a p p r o a c h e s can be t a k e n i n b u i l d i n g a com-p u t e r m o d e l . O r c u t t l i s t s f o u r : (1) b u i l d i n g b l o c k a p p r o a c h ; (2) b l o c k r e c u r s i v e m o d e l s ; ( 3 ) r e p l i c a t i o n o f componen ts , and ( 4 ) t r e a t m e n t o f components as p r o b a b i l i t y s a m p l e s " ^ . The b u i l d i n g b l o c k a p p r o a c h i s a s i m p l e p r o c e d u r e t h a t b r e a k s a l a r g e p r o c e s s i n t o s e v e r a l i n d i v i d u a l p r o c e s s e s , a l l o w i n g e x t e n s i v e t e s t i n g o f each s m a l l p a r t b e f o r e a s s e m b l i n g i n t o one l a r g e p r o g r a m . B l o c k - r e c u r s i o n p r o v i d e s a s e q u e n t i a l p r o c e s s , a l l o w i n g t h e use o f d i g i t a l c o m p u t e r s . R e p l i c a t i o n o f components r e d u c e s t h e number o f i n d i v i d u a l components by u s i n g a few m a j o r t y p e s t h a t o p e r a t e s i m i l a r l y bu t may t a k e on d i f f e r e n t v a l u e s . I n o t h e r words a b a s i c b e h a v i o u r o r o p e r a t i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c i s assumed f o r numerous components , 1 4 b i d . , p p . 2 7 - 2 8 . ^ O r c u t t , op_. c i t . ,3,900-901. l 6 I b i d . .p .901-902. 54 bu t each i n d i v i d u a l component may be i n i t i a l i z e d w i t h d i f f e r e n t v a l u e s and o p e r a t e d under d i f f e r e n t p a r a m e t e r s . U s i n g components as p r o b a b i l i t y samp les r e l a t e s t o v e r y l a r g e s y s t e m s , where m i l l i o n s o f i n d i v i d u a l components c o u l d be c o n c e p t u a l i z e d . I t can be t h o u g h t o f as a p r o c e s s n o t u n l i k e t h a t o f a sample s u r v e y . A d v a n t a g e s o f S i m u l a t i o n . S i m u l a t i o n can be used even though t h e r e may be d i f f i c u l t i e s i n d u p l i c a t i o n o f e n -v i r o n m e n t , m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n , l a c k o f a n a l y t i c a l s o l u t i o n t e c h n i q u e s , o r e x p e r i m e n t a l i m p o s s i b i l i t i e s . The r e a s o n s f o r u s i n g s i m u l a t i o n a r e numerous and depend upon t h e n a t u r e o f t h e p r o b l e m 1 ' ' 7 . B u i l d i n g a s i m u l a t i o n mode l o f a p r o c e s s r e q u i r e s a s y s t e m a t i c g a t h e r i n g o f p e r t i n e n t d a t a . The breakdown o f a p r o c e s s i n t o b u i l d i n g b l o c k s a l l o w s i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f s k i l l s , o p i n i o n s , o r i n f o r m a t i o n o f many p e o p l e p l u s i n d i c a t i n g t h e i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h i c h may have been h i d d e n . S i m u l a t i o n mode l s can show t h e mean ing and i m p l i c a t i o n s o f p r o p o s e d p o l i c y c h a n g e s , and can e n a b l e p e o p l e t o u n d e r s t a n d a com-p l i c a t e d p r o c e s s . A s s u m i n g a v a l i d m o d e l , t h e t e c h n i q u e i s an i n e x p e n s i v e way o f e x a m i n i n g many a l t e r n a t i v e s i n a s y s t e m - - t h e c o s t i n v o l v e d i n a c t u a l l y m a k i n g t h e changes and w a i t i n g t o see w h i c h p e r f o r m s b e s t i s a v o i d e d . A n o t h e r a d -v a n t a g e i s t h a t a v a l i d mode l can g e n e r a t e a g r e a t d e a l o f d a t a , t h u s a l l o w i n g a h i g h deg ree o f f l e x i b i l i t y i n a n a l y s i s 17 ' F o r f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n see G.W. M o r g e n t h a l e r "The Theo ry and A p p l i c a t i o n o f S i m u l a t i o n i n O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h " , P r o -g r e s s i n O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h . R . L . A c k o f f , e d i t o r ( P u b l i c a -t i o n s i n O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h N o . 5,° New Y o r k : J o h n W i l e y and S o n s , I n c . , 1961), pp.372-375. 55 of the system. A simulation model presents a dynamic si t u a t i o n over time. Different time periods or rates of time can be used f o r separate components. Bottlenecks and d i f f i c u l t i e s i n timing operations can often be "pin-pointed" with a simulation model. A very important ad-vantage of simulation i s that the analyst i s forced to appreciate and understand a l l facets of the system, f o r unless he does, the model w i l l not work. There remains a problem as the system may work wrong, but the analyst may not know i t without a f u l l understanding. The technique i s easier to use than conventional mathematical techniques be-cause i t does not require sophisticated mathematical pro-f i c i e n c y . Simulation i s used to examine problems i n the gen-e r a l areas of (1) t r a i n i n g personnel, (2) designing systems or s p e c i f i c equipment, (3) c o n t r o l l i n g systems, and (4) fore-18 casting . Simulation procedures are used to (1) t r a i n people f o r t h e i r duties i n a complex system, (2) learn about the operation of a complex system, and (3) experiment with proposed changes. Shubik gives four potential con-t r i b u t i o n s of simulation as: (1) a data-organizing device; (2) a t o o l f o r planning; (3) a computational aid and a l t e r -native to analysis i n theory construction; and (4) an econo-metric device to produce models based on empirical i n v e s t i -gation"^ . l 8 0 r c u t t , op_. c i t . .p-895-397. 1 9Shubik, op_. c i t . ,p„912-913 . 56 S i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s have been used t o s t u d y a 20 w i d e range o f p rob lems . A b i b l i o g r a p h y on s i m u l a t i o n f o r t h e y e a r s I960 t h r o u g h 1964 c o n t a i n e d 948 p a p e r s , a r -t i c l e s , and b o o k s ; y e t was t h o u g h t t o r e p r e s e n t o n l y 1 5 t o 20 p e r cen t o f t he a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e ' 1 . E a c h a r t i c l e d e a l s w i t h a p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e m and each must be examined i n t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f t h e p r o b l e m . T h i s does no t mean t h a t s i m u l a t i o n i s t h e o n l y t o o l , l e t a l o n e t h e b e s t t o o l f o r e v e r y p r o b l e m . The t e c h n i q u e h a s c e r t a i n d i s a d v a n t a g e s . F o r i n s t a n c e , each v a r i a n t o f t h e p r o b l e m must be s o l v e d by a s e p a r a t e c o m p u t a t i o n w h i c h i s e x p e n s i v e i n t e rms o f computer t i m e . L o c a t i o n o f S i m u l a t i o n S u r f a c e . The second weak-n e s s i s t h a t t h e t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n i s no t an o p t i m i z i n g t o o l . E a c h i t e r a t i o n o r answer p e r t a i n s t o o n l y t h e s e l e c -t e d c o m b i n a t i o n v a r i a b l e s . The computer i s a b l e t o p e r -f o r m r e p e t i t i v e c a l c u l a t i o n s w i t h such speed t h a t t h e r e i s a p o s s i b i l i t y o f g e n e r a t i n g an optimum a n s w e r . However , t h e p o s s i b l e c o m b i n a t i o n s o f v a r i a b l e s and t h e magn i tude o f each v a r i a b l e c o n c e p t u a l l y p r o v i d e an i n f i n i t e s e t o f p o s s i b i l i t i e s . Thus an opt imum answer i s no t n e c e s s a r i l y 20 See M. S h u b i k , " B i b l i o g r a p h y on S i m u l a t i o n , Gaming , A r -t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e , and A l l i e d T o p i c s " , J o u r n a l o f • A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n . V o l . LV ( D e c . , 1 9 3 0 ) , P P . 7 3 8 - 7 5 1 , 21 I . B . M . , B i b l i o g r a p h y on S i m u l a t i o n ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s M a c h i n e s , L t d . , I960). 57 produced. Since there are not i n f i n i t e graduations of the variables, an optimum answer i s probable. But since there are s t i l l numerous p o s s i b i l i t i e s , some method must be employed i n sel e c t i n g combinations which w i l l e f f i c i e n t l y use both the computer's and researcher's time. The method must j u s t i f y confidence that the answer selected approxi-mates the t h e o r e t i c a l best combination. The optimum answer depends upon the objective func-t i o n or c r i t e r i a used. The function can be exceedingly complex or very simple. A generalized function would be y = f ( X ^ u ) where u = 1, 2, n, and represents N v a r i a -bles i n the experiment, i = I, ..., K, and represents K l e v e l s of each vari a b l e . The function f i s c a l l e d the response surface. The problem i s to f i n d the l e v e l at which each of the x variables should be set i n order to maximize f . As response y i s affected by a number of quantitative factors x^ and experiments are carried out to f i n d the l e v e l of each Xj_, a method must be developed to seek optimum l e v e l s of each vari a b l e . I t would also be of considerable use to learn how y varies near the optimum f o r 22 several reasons : (1) i t may not be f e a s i b l e to set each variable at an optimum l e v e l , that i s a combination at less than op-23 timum may be f e a s i b l e , and perhaps even optimal i n economics ; ^^ W.G. Cochran and G.M. Cox, Experimental Designs (Second edn.; New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1957), p.355. 23 W.J. Baumol, Welfare Economics and the'Theory of the State (Second edn,; London: G. B u l l and Sons, Ltd., T9"65), pp.25-31. 58 (2) several variables may be very important and a less-than-optimum l e v e l of one may favourably affect char-24 a c t e r i s t i c s of another ; (3) the shape of the response surface near the optimum may provide an i n d i c a t i o n of the underlying process; and (4) there may not be a true maximum i n conditional experiments, so that regions of higher response may be desired. The two categories of available sampling methods are random sampling and systematic sampling. In the former method, values are simply drawn by chance from the popula-t i o n of values of the variables. Systematic sampling se-l e c t s values of the variables using some ordering p r i n c i p l e . Although the l a t t e r i s conceptually a t t r a c t i v e , the two methods are useful and both should be incorporated into the analysis. The nature of the experiment determines the method required. When a large number of designs are to be examined i n one large experiment, random sampling i s s u i t -able, whereas when a small number of designs are to be tested i n a narrow experiment, systematic sampling i s useful. Systematic sampling can be carried out by several methods but four seem useful. They are: (1) the uniform-g r i d or f a c t o r i a l method; (2) the single factor method; (3) the method of marginal analysis; and (4) the method of steepest ascent. 24 One may wish to consider other things i n the r e a l world. 59 The uniform-grid or f a c t o r i a l sampling method con-siders the relevant range of each variable by using uni-formly spaced values. The size of the sample consequently depends on the number of variables and the number of values of each variable. I f m = number of variables and n = number of values of each variable, the size of the sample i s n m . The sample size r i s e s exponentially with the number of variables, thus a manageable sample size often requires a very coarse g r i d . The method i s powerful i n that the response surface i s mapped using a r e l a t i v e l y small sample. The e f f e c t i v e -ness i s related to the topography of the surface, as the smaller the slope and rounder the h i l l s , the closer the method approximates the maximum point. The higher the h i l l , the greater the l i k e l i h o o d of f i n d i n g the peaks. A jagged surface with sharp curves makes i t d i f f i c u l t to see the highest h i l l s and thus requires the help of other techniques to f i n d the highest h i l l ; and the advantage of s i m p l i c i t y i n the simulation technique i s l o s t . In f a c t , a p o s t e r i o r i sampling may be needed. Since other techniques may not f i n d the appropriate h i l l , a p o s t e r i o r i sampling must be used unless a p r i o r i reason precludes the p o s s i b i l i t y of l o c a l optimums. Single factor sampling i s the most obvious method. A l l values of the n-1 variables are held constant while values of the remaining variable are altered unit by unit 60 u n t i l t h e r e i s no improvemen t . A p r i o r i v a l u e s a r e u s e d t o f i n d an opt imum p o i n t . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i n a d j u s t i n g one v a r i a b l e a t a t i m e , t h e s o l u t i o n may no t be o p t i m a l f o r a l l n v a r i a b l e s t a k e n t o g e t h e r . Thus s u c c e s s i v e r e a d j u s t -ment i s r e q u i r e d , mak ing t h e method l o n g and t e d i o u s — e s -p e c i a l l y i f i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i s e x p e c t e d o r f o u n d . I f t h e v a r i a b l e s a r e i n d e p e n d e n t , t h e method i s a p p r o p r i a t e . The t e c h n i q u e i s u s e f u l when a p p r o a c h i n g t h e optimum o r when o t h e r v a r i a b l e s a r e e x p e c t e d t o r e m a i n a t a g i v e n l e v e l and some i d e a o f what changes w o u l d o c c u r i f t he p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e c o u l d c h a n g e , i s known. M a r g i n a l a n a l y s i s a l t e r s two v a r i a b l e s a t a t i m e and t h e r e m a i n i n g n - 2 a r e h e l d c o n s t a n t , a c k n o w l e d g i n g i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e and p r o v i d i n g i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e d i r e c t i o n o f d e s i r e d c h a n g e . S m a l l changes a l l o w f o r t h e use o f l i n e a r e s t i m a t i o n a l t h o u g h a change must be g r e a t enough t o p r o v i d e d i f f e r e n t v a l u e s o f t h e o b j e c t i v e f u n c -t i o n . The u s e f u l n e s s i s b i a s e d t o w a r d s sys tems w i t h few v a r i a b l e s o r where t h e r e a r e i m p o r t a n t p a i r s o f a p r i o r i and a p o s t e r i o r i v a r i a b l e s . Use i s made o f t h i s method when a t an opt imum o r c l o s e t o an opt imum p o i n t , t o d e r i v e i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e ma jo r v a r i a b l e s and magn i tude o f i n t e r r e l a t i o n s t The method o f s t e e p e s t a s c e n t i s an i t e r a t i v e t e c h -n i q u e t h a t moves s e q u e n t i a l l y on t h e s h o r t e s t p a t h up t h e r e s p o n s e s u r f a c e * ^ . The advan tage o f t h e s t r a t e g y i s t h a t ' T o r f u r t h e r d e t a i l s and i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e s u b j e c t see C o c h r a n and C o x , op_. c i t , , pp.357-365. 61 i t includes the relationships of variables, although i t suffers the p o s s i b i l i t y that the true summit may be missed i f the response surface contains several h i l l s . An unknown response surface requires careful c a l c u l a t i o n and checks to overcome d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s and unknown h i l l shapes. Random sampling simply chooses values at random s i m i l a r to the grid method. The d i f f i c u l t y i s that the sample size i s larger i n order to adequately describe the surface. The sample size can be calculated without knowing the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the values of the objective function. However, some knowledge i s required on an a p r i o r i basis to be able to determine the p r o b a b i l i t y of obtaining a value f a l l i n g i n a region close enough to the optimum to be useful. That i s , l e t ( O ^ = prob (x ^ b ) ) . Then 1 - 6 - £ (m i s the number of observations) i s the p r o b a b i l i t y that at l east one w i l l be greater than b. But b and i t s proba-b i l i t y must be a p r i o r i . The approach i s useful i n a narrow sense, but the p o s s i b i l i t y of missing the optimum seems great, e s p e c i a l l y i f the surface i s jagged. The f i n a l point i s that a combination of sampling methods i s an e f f e c t i v e strategy. The general topography might be obtained by the uniform gri d and random method. Promising portions can then be studied by i n t e n s i f y i n g the random or grid method, or by the single factor, marginal analysis, or steepest ascent methods. The methods used depend on the type of experiment, computer program, a n a l y t i c a l 6 2 s o p h i s t i c a t i o n , and on t h e a v a i l a b l e t i m e , money, and com-p u t e r , f o r e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n and a n a l y s i s . S i m u l a t i o n f o r G r a i n A s s e m b l y . The t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n seems a p p l i c a b l e i n t h e s t u d y o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y f r o m f a r m t o c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r . The sys tem i s a complex one i n v o l v i n g t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f g r a i n by f a r m e r s , s t o r a g e o f t h e g r a i n i n f a r m b i n s o r c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s , t h e movement o f g r a i n f r o m t h e f a r m t o e l e v a t o r , and t h e s h i p -ment o f g r a i n by box c a r s f r om t h e e l e v a t o r . I n s t i t u t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s a r e i n v o l v e d a l t h o u g h i n d i r e c t l y . The d e -c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e amount o f s t o r a g e space r e q u i r e d i s i n t e r d e p e n d e n t w i t h d e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g r a i l s h i p m e n t s , e l e v a t o r c a p a c i t y , and f a r m s t o r a g e b i n s p l u s t h e t i m e d i m e n s i o n . The Monte C a r l o t e c h n i q u e i s used t o p r o v i d e a y e a r l y v a r i a b i l i t y i n c r o p p r o d u c t i o n and r a i l s h i p m e n t s . The mode l d e v e l o p e d i n t h i s s t u d y does not i n c l u d e a l l t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f s i m u l a t i o n , bu t r a t h e r t h e sys tem i s s i m p l i -f i e d t o use t h e e x i s t i n g d a t a . However , t h e mode l and t h e d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s i n d i c a t e t h a t a much more complex and t h o r o u g h mode l w o u l d be a b e t t e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of r e a l i t y bu t a g r e a t d e a l o f know ledge i s n e e d e d . I t i s no t e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g mode l w o u l d be u s e d as an i n p u t t o a l a r g e r sys tem bu t t h e b u i l d i n g b l o c k a p p r o a c h t o a l a r g e s c a l e sys tem r e q u i r e s knowledge o f t h e sys tem s t u d i e d . Two computer l a n g u a g e s were u s e d , GPSS I I I and 6 3 F o r t r a n . The former was found to be d i f f i c u l t and un-w i e l d y although a s u i t a b l e language f o r the problem. For-t r a n was used as i t i s a simple language which i s u n i -v e r s a l l y used,.and the computer program developed can be i n t e r p r e t e d e a s i l y by most people. Computer time was a l s o l e s s than r e q u i r e d f o r GPSS I I I . The Grain Assembly Model. The b a s i c i d e a of the model was to take s i x areas, one at a time and simulate the production, storage, and shipment of g r a i n each week f o r any number of years. The costs of moving the g r a i n from the farm to the box car are t a b u l a t e d . The network diagram i s shown i n Figures 2A, 2B, 2C, and the computer model as a F o r t r a n program i n Appendix I . The model determines g r a i n production each week. This g r a i n i s then stored i n the v a r i o u s storage f a c i l i -t i e s by s e t t i n g up d e c i s i o n b l o c k s determining t - K e amounts of g r a i n t o enter each f a c i l i t y . The r a i l shipments were exogenous and remove g r a i n by u s i n g a set of d e c i s i o n s blocks to determine the amounts of g r a i n shipped. Grain production was simulated u s i n g the Monte Carl o technique. Shipments of g r a i n by box car are modi-f i e d by the same value to show correspondence between pro-duction and shipment. However r a i l shipments are f u r t h e r modified u s i n g Monte Carlo once more to provide f o r a v a r i a -t i o n i n shipments independent of crop production. At the beginning of each production year, carryover of g r a i n i s 64 Crops For Each Area Are Generated By Using Monte Carlo Technique E a c h Week Lepend C.E.S. Country Elevator Space C£ Country Elevator -I / x There Enough x \ xx Farm Space? Store: Bin Store; Handling Costs On Ground G o To Store: Ground Storage, Farm Bin. Next Week Hauling, & A i ! C.E. Costs Store: Al l C.E. Costs Store.-No. Bu. Leaving C.E. Figure 2A. Grain storage- field to storage YES / T e s t If \ v -^Any Country E levator Storage v A v a l i a b l e ALL / ' T e s t H o w \ Much Country E l e v a t o r Cars \ Hand l e PART _ 2 _ Determine How * _ M u c h Space is , ± A v a i l a b l e Store: G r o u n d ~ S t o r i n g Cos ts And Add To O v e r a l l C o s t s ~ ~ r ~ Remove X Un i t s From Ground Storage Figure 2 B. G r o u n d storage to commerc ia l e l e va t o r 66 ALL Determine How Much Space Is Available = X Remove X Units From Farm Bins _ J -Store Farm Bin Costs — i ,. J Figure 2C Bin storage to commercial elevator 67 subtracted from the e l e v a t o r s and the r e s u l t becomes a v a i l -able space. The counters are then set at zero. The crop i s stored i n commercial e l e v a t o r s , farm b i n s , or on the ground w i t h p r i o r i t i e s one, two, and three r e s p e c t i v e l y . The space a v a i l a b l e i s diminished i n the e l e v a t o r s and farm bins according t o the g r a i n which i s entered. Once the g r a i n i s s t o r e d , r a i l shipments reduce the amount of g r a i n stored i n f i e l d storage, farm b i n s , and then the e l e v a t o r . This means that the e l e v a t o r s are c o n s t a n t l y f u l l , but a l s o provides a method f o r the move-ment of g r a i n . Ground stored g r a i n i s moved whenever r a i l shipment ca p a c i t y i s provided, and g r a i n stored i n farm b i n s i s moved a f t e r a l l ground stored g r a i n has been shipped. The method, a l b e i t clumsy, can be thought of as removing g r a i n from the e l e v a t o r , w i t h the r e s u l t i n g space being f i l l e d w i t h g r a i n from ground storage and from farm b i n storage a f t e r a l l ground-stored g r a i n i s removed. The f l o w diagram shows a l l g r a i n removed from the e l e v a t o r , which i s then f i l l e d from f i e l d , ground storage and then from farm bins the f o l l o w i n g week r a t h e r than the proce-dure used. However, i t was accepted to provide a method t o move g r a i n from the system. I t was thought t h a t farmers would f i r s t ship g r a i n from the f i e l d . Any g r a i n stored on the ground would be shipped at the e a r l i e s t opportunity, followed by g r a i n stored i n the farm b i n s . The method that was accepted may b i a s cost upwards during the h a r v e s t i n g p e r i o d as a v a r i a b l e 68 cost comprising a charge at the b i n and a charge f o r hand-l i n g . However, i t could be argued t h a t the costs of t r u c k -i n g g r a i n d i r e c t l y from the combine may be considerably greater than those charged. The method w i l l a f f e c t e l e -v a t o r costs i n th a t one cost equation i n c l u d i n g u t i l i z a t i o n of space at the e l e v a t o r . However, a l l experiments use the same program so that the r e s u l t s w i l l be comparable, and the b i a s may not be s e l e c t i v e . As two other cost equations are used which do not i n c o r p o r a t e the u t i l i z a t i o n v a l u e , e l e v a t o r costs can be determined which are not biased by the programming method. The costs of ground storage were determined weekly, but the costs of farm b i n storage, h a u l i n g , and commercial e l e v a t o r storage were determined y e a r l y . Crop production i s based on the long term average of e l e v a t o r r e c e i p t s and on the aggregate production of each area. The v a r i a b i l i t y of crop production i s random, th a t i s , there i s no p a r t i c u l a r sequence of the s i z e of crop production. Commercial storage i s aggregated i n t o one equivalent e l e v a t o r f o r each area, however one cost equation uses r a t i o s , which do not create any problem since the other two cost equations r e q u i r e c a p a c i t i e s , i n which case the average s i z e of e l e v a t o r at each point i s used. As the model e s s e n t i a l l y moves g r a i n to the e l e v a t o r whenever space i s a v a i l a b l e , the e l e v a t o r tends to be f i l l e d t o 69 c a p a c i t y at a l l times. Thus there are two problems i n the e l e v a t o r component. The f i r s t i s that one would l i k e t o t r e a t each e l e v a t o r independently. The second i s that e l e v a t o r s are not f i l l e d to c a p a c i t y at a l l times but ra t h e r are f i l l e d according to the e l e v a t o r ownership, the quota, and the farmers' reasons f o r sh i p p i n g . Farm b i n storage i s a l s o aggregated f o r each area. The d i f f i c u l t i e s i n asse s s i n g costs f o r such storage are discussed i n the next chapter, where a f i x e d and v a r i a b l e cost was determined. Ground storage costs represent the upper l i m i t of c o s t s , as the only method considered i s tha t of p i l i n g the g r a i n d i r e c t l y on the ground. The cost of ground storage i n c l u d e s g r a i n l o s s e s which are c a l c u l a t e d f o r wheat, b a r l e y , and oats. The p r i c e s charged were purposely higher than would probably be experienced to provide an upper l i m i t to c o s t s . The model does not keep t r a c k of each bushel of g r a i n but considers a l l g r a i n on the ground t o undergo the same r a t e of d e t e r i o r a t i o n and thus the same cost per week reg a r d l e s s of the leng t h of time the g r a i n has been on the ground. The costs are constant f o r r e l a t i v e l y long periods of time between which d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s e x i s t . The model determines the cost of ground storage each week. T o t a l cost i s the sum of the weekly c o s t s . The truck s i z e i s a r b i t r a r i l y set i n each computer run. The number of mil e s i s determined by d i v i d i n g the 7 0 t o t a l b u s h e l s moved by t h e t r u c k s i z e e The c o s t o f t r u c k -i n g was d e t e r m i n e d by a p e r b u s h e l m i l e c o s t s p e c i f i c t o b o t h d i s t a n c e and t r u c k s i z e . The c o s t o f a u g e r i n g t h e g r a i n i s a v a r i a b l e c o s t o b t a i n e d by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e number o f b u s h e l s s h i p p e d t o t h e e l e v a t o r by a c o n s t a n t . The mode l i s no t s o p h i s t i c a t e d . The l i m i t a t i o n s c o u l d be overcome by a c q u i r i n g g r e a t e r knowledge o f t h e s y s t e m . I f t h e mode l were t o c l o s e l y r e p r e s e n t r e a l i t y , t h e 26 d e t a i l r e q u i r e d w o u l d be immense , I t was d e c i d e d t h a t t h e mode l d e v e l o p e d was a p p r o p r i a t e t o d e t e r m i n e t h e c o s t s o f t h e sys tem unde r t h e p r e s e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s . A l -t hough t h e r e a r e d e f i n i t e l i m i t a t i o n s t o t h e m o d e l , a g r e a t d e a l o f a n a l y s i s w o u l d be r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e b e t t e r d e -c i s i o n r u l e s . The t e c h n i q u e o f s i m u l a t i o n has been d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r . The a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s have been i n d i c a t e d . The t e c h n i q u e seemed a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h e s t u d y o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y f r o m f a r m t o e l e v a t o r , and a model was 27 d e v e l o p e d t o d e t e r m i n e some o f t h e c o s t s i n v o l v e d . The mode l i s e s s e n t i a l l y h e u r i s t i c i n t h a t t h e r e s u l t s cannot be p r o v e d . The f l o w d i a g r a m i s shown i n F i g u r e s 2A, 2B , 2 C , and t h e a c t u a l computer p rogram i s p r e s e n t e d i n A p p e n d i x I. 2 6 F o r an i n t e r e s t i n g h y p o t h e s i z e d mode l r e g a r d i n g t h e who le gamut o f • p r o d u c t i o n and m a r k e t i n g see R . H . D a y , "Dynamic C o u p l i n g O p t i m i z i n g , and R e g i o n a l I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e " , J o u r n a l o f Farm E c o n o m i c s V o l . V I L , N o . 2 , p * 4 4 2 - 4 5 0 . 27 ' V a r i o u s s o c i a l c o s t s have no t been d e t e r m i n e d , w h i c h may p l a y a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n t h e f e a s i b l e changes i n t h e g r a i n t r a d e . 7 1 CHAPTER V COST AND DATA ESTIMATES FOR THE SIMULATION MODEL T h i s c h a p t e r i n v o l v e s t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f components needed i n t h e mode l s y s t e m and an e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e methods and a s s u m p t i o n s u s e d i n d e r i v i n g t h e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s . An a t t emp t has been made t o e x p l i c i t l y s t a t e a l l a s s u m p t i o n s . D a t a u s e d i n each component i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h e a p p e n d i x . The a r e a unde r s t u d y c o m p r i s e s s i x g r a i n d e l i v e r y p o i n t s : Grande P r a i r i e , D i m s d a l e , H u a l l e n , B e a v e r l o d g e , and H y t h e . The t o t a l a r e a o f t h e r e g i o n i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 7 6 0 , 0 0 0 a c r e s ' ^ . I t l i e s w i t h i n census d i v i s i o n number f i f t e e n , and A l b e r t a c r o p r e p o r t i n g d i s t r i c t number s e v e n . Where i n f o r -m a t i o n was no t s p e c i f i c t o t h e a r e a , d a t a s p e c i f i c t o t h e census d i s t r i c t o r c r o p r e p o r t i n g d i s t r i c t were u s e d . I f no d a t a s p e c i f i c t o t h e c l a s s e s above were a v a i l a b l e , p r o -v i n c i a l and t h e n P r a i r i e d a t a w e r e u s e d . The t i m e p e r i o d s e x p l i c t l y c o n s i d e r e d were c r o p y e a r s 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 t o 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 i n c l u s i v e , bu t s e v e r a l p i e c e s o f d a t a no t d e r i v e d f r o m t h e t i m e boundary above were u s e d i n t h i s m o d e l . The b a s i c u n i t o f t i m e u s e d w i t h i n t h e mode l i s a week . W e e k l y d a t a i s t h e n summed i n t o y e a r l y s t a t e m e n t s f o r s t u d y and c o m p a r i s o n p u r p o s e s . The mode l components c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r a r e : ( 1 ) c r o p p r o d u c t i o n ; ( 2 ) f a r m s t o r a g e "*"Acres s p e c i f i e d i n C . W . B . p e r m i t b o o k s , 1 9 6 5 (See A p p e n d i x I I T a b l e s L X X , L X X I , L X X I I , L X X I I I , L X X I V , LXXV, and L X X V I ) . 72 costs; ( 3 ) ground storage costs; ( 4 ) average hauling distance and hauling costs; ( 5 ) r a i l hauling frequency; and ( 6 ) country elevator costs. I. CROP PRODUCTION In t h i s section a procedure i s developed f o r the gen-eration of a series of numbers to be used as a proxy f o r crop production. A series of numbers was required f o r each elevator point. Numbers represent crop production and exhi-b i t the proper mean, standard deviation, trend, proportion entering the elevator each year, and the time d i s t r i b u t i o n of harvesting. The grains considered were wheat, oats, barley, rye, and f l a x . Although rapeseed has exhibited a spectacular growth i n acreage since 1 9 6 1 (Appendix I I , Tables LXX, LXXI, LXXII, LXXIII, LXXIV, and LXXV), i t was excluded because there were only two observations of receipts f o r each point; because no dataware available regarding the time of harvest; and because rapeseed was not an important component of grain handled f o r the majority of crop year considered. Grass and legume seed were also excluded as appropriate data were not a v a i l a b l e . Total Production. The only data available regarding the amount of grain entering the elevator systemwere elevator 2 receipts by s t a t i o n . The f i r s t step was to examine these values f o r a time trend over the period 1 9 4 3 - 4 4 to 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 (Table 1). Dimsdale was the only station f o r which a positive 2 Summary of Country Elevator Receipts at Individual P r a i r i e Points  Crop Years 1955-56 to 1964-65 ( S t a t i s t i c s D i v i s i o n , Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1 9 5 6 to 1 9 6 5 ) . 7 3 TABLE I TIME TREND OF TOTAL RECEIPTS OF ALL GRAINS AT COUNTRY ELEVATORS 1 9 4 3 - 4 4 TO 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 a Point Standard Er r o r Y B Standard Error of B F-Ratio Dimsdale " 5 3 , 5 3 1 . 2 0 1 2 3 , 2 4 6 . 8 9 5 , 7 3 9 . 8 1 1 , 7 9 8 . 9 2 1 0 . 1 6 ' Grande P r a i r i e 2 2 8 , 8 9 1 . 3 1 4 9 8 , 1 3 6 . 3 7 3 , 9 6 9 . 8 7 7 , 6 9 1 . 9 3 0.27 Huallen 3 1 , 4 6 3 . 4 0 1 3 1 , 5 6 3 . 5 7 - 1 , 1 9 3 . 8 3 1 , 0 5 7 . 3 3 1.27 Hythe 2 2 4 , 9 7 5 . 6 3 7 0 6 , 9 8 9 . 7 8 - 5 , 9 1 7 . 1 8 7 , 5 6 0 . 3 4 0 . 6 1 Wembley 1 0 6 , 0 3 8 . 4 2 3 7 9 , 1 9 6 . 0 5 5 , 4 3 1 . 2 3 3 , 5 6 5 . 1 7 2 . 3 2 Beaverlodge 1 6 3 , 4 6 7 . 4 1 6 4 4 , 4 0 5 . 3 6 - 6 , 5 5 6 . 7 7 5 , 5 2 3 . 5 9 1 . 4 1 Simple regression Y = A + BX Y = crop receipts at elevators (bushels) X = Time (years) Source of data: Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, Summary  of Country Elevator Receipts at Individual P r a i r i e Points Crop  Years 1943-44 to 1964-65 (Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1944 to 1 9 6 5 ) . ^ S i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l 0 . 0 1 . o 7 4 c o e f f i c i e n t s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e one p e r c e n t l e v e l was o b -s e r v e d . The absence o f an i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d i s no t e x p l a i n e d f o r o t h e r p o i n t s . A l l p o i n t s , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f Wembley, h a d a p o s i t i v e t i m e t r e n d f o r b o t h c u l t i v a t e d and t o t a l a c r e a g e ( T a b l e I J } , o v e r t h e p e r i o d 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 t o 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 . Sub -s t i t u t i o n o f one c r o p f o r a n o t h e r a t D i m s d a l e f o r 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 t o 1964-65 show a p o s i t i v e t i m e c o e f f i c i e n t f o r wheat o n l y . T h e t e s t i s r a t h e r i n c o n c l u s i v e because t h e t i m e s e r i e s f o r e l e v a t o r r e c e i p t s i s much l o n g e r t h a n t h a t f o r a c r e a g e s . Bo th Grande P r a i r i e and Wembley had p o s i t i v e t i m e c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t o t a l r e c e i p t s a l t h o u g h n e i t h e r was s i g n i f i c a n t . Whether o r no t t h e e x t r a r e c e i p t s a t D i m s d a l e were o b t a i n e d a t t h e expense o f r e c e i p t s a t Grande P r a i r i e and Wembley was no t known. I t was d e c i d e d t h a t t h e t r e n d f o r D i m s d a l e w o u l d no t be e x p l i c i t l y i n c o r p o r a t e d . However , by u s i n g t h e l o n g t e r m a v e r a g e s f o r e l e v a t o r r e c e i p t s t o p r o v i d e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e ave rage c r o p p r o d u c t i o n , t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e t r e n d may no t be as g r e a t and p e r h a p s n e g l e c t e d as an a p p r o x i m a -t i o n as shown i n T a b l e I I I , R e c e i p t s a t c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s were assumed t o have been h a r v e s t e d d u r i n g t h e same c r o p y e a r . T h e m a j o r c r o p s grown i n t h e r e g i o n under s t u d y a r e o a t s a n d b a r l e y c o m p r i s i n g on t h e a v e r a g e , s i x t y t o e i g h t y p e r c e n t o f t h e a c r e a g e d e v o t e d t o t h e f i v e c r o p s c o n s i d e r e d as shown i n T a b l e I V . However , t h e we ighed ave rage o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f g r a i n r e c e i p t s each y e a r v e r s u s p o t e n t i a l p r o d u c t i o n ( y i e l d o f each c r o p , as shown i n A p p e n d i x T a b l e s , L X X V I I , L X X V I I I , L X X I X , and L X X X , m u l t i p l i e d by t h e r e s p e c t i v e a c r e a g e s f o r 7 5 TABLE I I TIME SERIES OF ACREAGES 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 TO 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 a Y = A + BXb ' S t a n d a r d S t a n d a r d Name E r r o r A B E r r o r F - R a t i o o f Y o f B A c r e s A c r e s A c r e s A c r e s B . DIMSDALE Wheat 9 9 5 . 0 9 Oats 4 2 8 . 8 6 Bar ley - 7 5 7 . 4 0 Rye 2 2 3 . 0 6 Summer F a l l o w 6 2 1 . 6 8 F o r a g e 6 0 7 . 3 8 F l a x 2 6 9 . 0 2 O t h e r 2 4 0 . 0 4 U n c u l t i v a t e d 5 4 2 . 0 4 C u l t i v a t e d 8 6 3 . 9 7 T o t a l A c r e s 1 , 1 7 6 . 5 7 A . GRANDE PRAIRIE Wheat 3 , 7 2 2 . 2 8 5 , 9 8 7 : 4 5 1 , 7 7 7 . 7 7 3 5 4 . 9 1 25.09 Oats 3 , 6 3 0 . 6 8 24,597.49 - 6 0 7 . 0 4 3 4 6 . 1 7 3 . 0 7 . B a r l e y 2 , 8 5 5 . 1 3 2 4 , 0 5 7 . 0 7 7 0 4 . 4 7 272.23 6 . 7 0 " Rye 2 4 8 . 7 0 6 1 3 . 7 8 - 4 9 . 1 5 23.71 4 . 3 0 o Summer F a l l o w 1 , 3 7 0 . 8 1 1 6 , 5 5 3 . 5 6 6 2 6 . 1 6 1 7 8 . 3 7 12.32"' F o r a g e 4 , 1 1 3 . 3 3 2 0 , 4 2 1 . 2 0 8 2 8 . 3 5 392.19 4 . 7 0 F l a x 1 , 9 1 8 . 2 6 7 , 4 3 8 . 1 8 - 2 1 5 . 7 3 1 8 2 . 9 0 1.39 O t h e r 8 8 4 . 2 2 - 1 5 8 . 2 9 4 8 l . l l 8 4 . 3 1 3 2 . 5 7 1 * U n c u l t i v a t e d 1 , 9 7 3 . 2 8 7 3 , 3 3 3 . 2 0 2 , 9 4 1 . 5 7 188.15 2 4 4 . 4 4 ' " C u l t i v a t e d 2 , 5 8 4 . 2 2 9 1 , 4 3 7 . 4 0 5 , 7 3 1 . 1 9 2 4 6 . 4 0 5 4 1 . 0 3 * * T o t a l A c r e s 3 , 5 1 7 . 7 9 1 6 4 , 7 7 0 . 5 9 8 , 6 7 2 . 7 7 3 3 5 . 4 1 6 6 8 . 7 0 * * • 7 3 6 . 6 0 4 6 3 . 1 7 9 4 . 8 8 2 3 . 8 3 * * 5 , 8 7 1 . 8 7 - 3 2 2 . 3 4 4 0 . 8 9 6 2 . 1 4 * * 5 , 3 7 4 . 6 2 1 2 8 . 6 5 7 2 . 2 2 3 . 1 7 1 4 3 , 2 0 -7.06 2 1 . 2 6 0 . 1 1 5,119.16 2 . 5 2 5 9 . 2 8 0 . 0 0 4 , 6 5 8 . 7 3 1 1 8 . 0 9 5 7 . 9 2 4 . 1 6 8 6 9 . 6 0 - 1 3 . 7 8 2 5 . 6 5 0.29 •930.80 - 5 6 . 0 7 2 2 . 8 9 6 . 0 0 * 1 0 , 7 1 6 . 9 3 - 4 5 . 8 4 5 1 . 6 8 0 . 7 9 23^086.93 4 7 1 . 8 0 8 2 . 3 8 3 2 . 8 0 * * 33,803.35 4 2 5 . 9 6 1 1 2 . 1 8 1 4 . 4 2 * * WEMBLEY Wheat 2 , 0 2 7 . 9 0 4 , 4 2 8 . 9 6 4 9 5 . 6 3 193.35 6 . 5 7 * Oats 1 , 5 9 1 . 7 7 1 2 , 0 8 3 . 7 6 - 7 7 8 . 0 8 1 5 1 . 7 7 2 6 . 2 8 * * B a r l e y 1 , 0 8 9 . 7 2 1 1 , 5 0 8 . 5 4 7 0 . 9 1 1 0 3 . 9 0 0 . 4 7 Rye 2 8 4 . 6 7 4 6 1 . 2 2 - 4 0 . 3 5 2 7 . 1 4 2 . 2 1 Summer F a l l o w 1 , 2 5 9 . 8 5 1 2 , 5 4 9 . 3 4 - 8 9 . 3 9 1 2 0 . 1 2 0 . 5 5 F o r a g e 2 , 9 6 5 . 7 4 1 4 , 6 4 3 . 6 3 - 1 2 1 . 5 5 2 8 2 . 7 7 0 . 1 8 F l a x 7 0 4 . 1 7 2 , 3 5 3 . 5 6 2 6 . 4 4 6 7 . 1 4 0.16 O t h e r 3 8 2 . 8 4 7 5 9 . 6 7 -8.08 3 6 . 5 0 O . O 5 U n c u l t i v a t e d 9 6 1 . 8 8 2 8 , 4 8 2 . 7 6 - 3 6 4 . 4 5 9 1 . 7 1 1 5 . 7 9 * * C u l t i v a t e d 1 , 0 9 9 . 6 4 5 6 , 8 3 0 . 9 6 8 1 . 2 1 1 0 4 . 8 5 0 . 6 0 T o t a l A c r e s 1 , 5 9 2 . 1 9 8 4 , 9 5 0 . 0 9 - 2 3 7 . 7 7 1 5 1 . 8 1 2 . 4 5 76 D. HUALLEN Wheat 6 0 3 . O S O a t s 5 1 4 . 3 2 B a r l e y 2 9 8 . 7 7 Rye 1 0 5 . 2 4 Summer F a l l o w 5 9 5 . 4 0 F o r a g e 8 8 3 . 2 2 F l a x 2 6 4 . 9 2 O t h e r 2 5 8 . 0 4 U n c u l t i v a t e d 4 5 0 . 1 5 C u l t i v a t e d 6 7 8 . 8 6 T o t a l A c r e s 4 1 3 . 2 2 S t a n d a r d S t a n d a r d Name E r r o r A B E r r o r F - R a t i o o f Y o f B A c r e s A c r e s A c r e s A c r e s 7 1 8 . 9 1 1 5 3 . 9 5 5 7 . 5 0 7 . 1 7 * . 5 , 0 9 9 . 6 9 - 2 4 4 . 1 0 4 9 . 0 4 24.73* v 1 , 3 8 9 . 8 4 1 7 2 . 3 0 2 8 . 4 9 3 6 . 5 8 ; * 2 3 9 . 9 5 - 2 4 . 9 5 1 0 . 0 3 6 . 1 8 " ' 3 , 2 2 4 . 0 7 9 4 . 8 8 5 6 . 7 7 2 . 7 9 4 , 3 1 1 . 2 2 4 4 . 0 1 8 3 . 2 1 0 . 2 7 1 , 1 4 5 . 7 6 - 4 8 . 4 0 2 5 . 2 6 3 . 6 7 • 7 3 9 . 5 6 5 1 . 5 2 2 4 . 6 0 4 . 3 9 , , 9 , 2 0 1 . 6 7 - 2 0 7 . 8 1 4 2 . 9 2 2 3 . 4 4 ? ? 1 6 , 0 1 9 . 4 5 3 9 5 . 1 ^ 6 4 . 7 2 3 7 . 2 8 * " 2 5 , 5 2 6 . 5 8 1 5 8 . 2 8 3 9 . 4 0 1 6 . 1 4 * * E . BEAVERLODGE Wheat 1 , 6 3 5 . 7 6 5,297.33 9 . 3 1 1 5 5 . 9 6 0 . 0 0 , O a t s 2 , 8 4 0 . 1 1 2 1 , 6 6 6 . 2 7 - 7 8 9 . 1 4 2 7 0 . 7 9 8 . 4 9 * B a r l e y 2 , 8 0 5 . 4 2 6 , 9 7 3 . 0 7 1 , 3 0 9 . 7 5 2 6 7 . 4 9 2 3 . 9 8 * * Rye 1 0 2 . 7 7 60.33 1 9 . 7 6 9.80 4 . 0 7 Summer F a l l o w 3 , 5 3 3 . 6 6 2 0 , 6 0 1 . 5 8 - 1 4 8 . 9 5 3 3 6 . 9 2 0 . 2 0 Fo rage 5 , 7 3 3 . 6 7 3 4 , 5 3 7 . 6 0 6 3 O . 4 O 5 5 0 . 5 0 1 . 3 1 F l a x 1 , 5 0 3 . 4 5 3 , 0 7 7 . 2 4 3 4 4 . 4 0 1 4 3 . 3 5 5 . 7 7 * O t h e r 4 5 3 . 7 8 1 , 8 0 9 . 3 5 -0.80 4 3 . 7 4 0 . 0 0 _ U n c u l t i v a t e d 3 , 0 2 5 . 1 3 5 6 , 0 6 1 . 5 1 1 , 0 0 3 . 7 6 2 8 8 . 4 4 1 2 . 1 1 * * C u l t i v a t e d 3 , 0 2 5 . 1 3 9 1 , 2 9 0 . 9 0 1 , 9 6 9 . 5 5 2 3 5 . 2 9 7 0 . 0 7 * * T o t a l A c r e s 4 , 9 0 4 . 9 2 1 4 7 , 3 5 2 . 4 1 2 , 9 7 3 . 3 1 4 6 7 . 6 7 4 0 . 4 2 * ' ' F . HYTHE Wheat 1 , 5 5 4 . 7 7 1 , 5 3 8 . 9 6 2 9 5 . 9 5 1 4 8 . 2 4 3 . 9 9 Oats 4 ^ 6 2 4 . 0 2 2 4 , 9 1 7 . 7 8 - 4 6 4 . 4 2 4 4 0 . 8 8 1 . 1 1 B a r l e y 2 , 7 1 6 . 1 2 1 3 , 9 2 7 . 0 9 6 1 6 . 3 2 2 5 8 . 9 7 5 . 6 6 * Rye 2 7 4 . 1 1 7 6 6 . 5 6 - 7 8 . 9 3 2 6 . 1 3 9 . 1 2 * Summer F a l l o w 2 , 6 7 4 . 2 8 1 8 , 6 3 4 . 3 4 2 9 9 . 0 6 2 5 4 . 9 8 I . 3 8 F o r a g e 5 , 4 5 2 . 5 3 2 9 , 5 1 8 . 3 1 1 , 0 4 7 . 8 3 5 1 9 . 8 8 4;06, F l a x 7 1 2 . 8 1 2 6 6 . 6 9 2 0 4 . 9 0 6 7 . 9 6 9 . 0 9 " ' O t h e r 602.67 1 , 1 3 3 . 7 3 1 0 7 . 4 1 5 7 . 4 6 3 . 4 9 U n c u l t i v a t e d 4 , 4 5 6 . 8 7 5 2 , 7 0 9 . 2 3 1 , 6 4 3 . 1 3 4 2 4 . 9 5 1 4 . 9 5 * ? C u l t i v a t e d 2 , 4 6 5 . 3 5 8 8 , 8 0 9 . 3 2 2 , 6 7 5 . 2 2 2 3 5 . 0 6 1 2 9 . 5 3 * * T o t a l A c r e s 6 , 6 9 4 . 2 9 1 4 0 , 9 1 8 . 5 6 4 , 3 1 8 . 3 5 6 3 8 . 2 8 4 5 . 7 7 a S o u r c e : D a t a p r o v i d e d by c o u r t e s y o f t h e S t a t i s t i c s B r a n c h , Boa rd o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s f o r Canada ( U n p u b l i s h e d ) . * * S i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l 0 . 0 1 ' ' ' S i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l 0 . 0 5 1 3 Y = C rop a c r e s ; A = I n t e r c e p t ; B = R e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t ; X = Time i n y e a r s . 77 TABLE III MEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF ELEVATOR RECEIPTS FOR EACH POINT 1943 TO 1965 & Point Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe Annual Mean (bushels) 676,200 183,500 436,200 119,000 575,600 690,300 Annual Standard Deviation (bushels) 282,100 64,170 109,400 3 1 , 6 7 0 166,000 139,000 Source of Data: Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, Summary of Country Elevator Receipts at Individual P r a i r i e  Points Crop Years 1955-56 to 1964-6? "("Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1 9 5 6 to 1 9 6 5 ) . TABLE IV CROP ACREAGES BY PERCENT OF TOTAL ACRES SEEDED TO FIVE GRAINS 7 8 Year Wheat Oats Ba r l e y F l a x Rye GRANDE PRAIRIE 1955 1 7 . 5 1 32 .87 41.54 6.89 1 . 1 9 1956 14 . 6 5 3 3 .93 3 6 . 1 3 14.75 0 . 4 4 1 9 5 7 12 .41 3 7 .02 3 7 . 9 7 11.17 1 . 4 3 1958 13 .70 3 5 . 0 1 4 3 . 3 4 7 . 3 8 0 .07 1959 20 .19 23 .96 40.44 9.92 0 .49 I960 23 .01 2 8 . 5 5 3 9 . 9 6 8.22 0 .26 1961 2 7 .22 3 0 . 3 9 3 3 . 4 0 8 . 7 7 0 .22 1962 27 . 0 3 3 1 . 3 0 3 2 . 4 7 9 . 0 3 0 .17 1963 2 6 .98 2 3 . 0 9 42.22 7.52 0 .19 1964 3 4 . 3 0 22 . 3 8 3 6 . 8 4 6.01 0 . 4 7 1965 29 .94 17 . 5 2 4 9 . 9 7 4.51 0 .06 Mean 22 . 4 5 2 9 .19 3 9 . 3 5 7 . 7 4 0 .45 DIMSDALE 1955 13 .41 3 7 . 4 9 3 7 . 6 7 5.98 0 . 4 5 1956 11 .39 40 .90 40.10 7 . 0 4 0 .07 1957 10 .08 37 .74 35.43 5.74 1 .01 1958 11 . 6 7 3 6 . 6 4 4 8 . 5 2 2.90 0 . 2 7 1959 18 . 3 5 26 . 3 0 4 8 . 5 9 6 . 5 5 0 .21 I960 21 .87 25 .72 4 1 . 2 2 5.92 5 .27 1961 2 9 . 0 5 25 . 6 9 3 8 . 4 6 6.08 0 .72 1 9 6 2 35 .56 22 . 8 4 3 5 . 5 1 6.09 1963 33 . 1 0 19 .20 4 0 . 2 0 7 . 5 0 0 . 0 0 1964 33 .55 18 . 8 2 3 8 . 9 3 3.70 1965 31 . 3 0 . 12 . 5 0 5 3 . 6 0 2.60 0 . 0 0 Mean 23 .62 27 .62 4 2 . 5 7 5 . 4 6 0 . 7 3 WEMBLEY 1955 19 .41 3 6 .06 37.01 6 . 4 9 1 . 0 3 1956 16 .27 3 9 . 5 6 35.21 8 . 3 3 0 . 1 3 1957 17 . 9 5 32 . 5 3 3 8 . 3 2 7 . 6 3 3 . 5 7 1958 16 .70 2 6 .70 4 9 . 7 0 6 . 5 2 0 . 3 8 1959 20 .24 22 .73 4 5 . 3 6 1 0 . 6 3 1 . 0 4 I960 27 .11 22 . 4 9 42.06 7.60 0 . 7 4 1961 3 4 . 5 1 22 .60 3 5 . 0 5 7 . 3 8 0 . 4 6 1962 30 . 0 0 2 5 .40 3 4 . 6 0 10.00 1963 27 . 9 0 1 9 . 1 0 4 1 . 1 0 11.89 0 .01 1964 3 7 . 9 3 1 5 . 9 5 3 8 . 2 4 7 . 3 2 0 . 5 6 1965 27 .60 9 . 4 0 5 6 . 0 0 6 . 8 2 0 .18 Mean 25 .06 2 4 .77 41.15 8 . 2 8 0 . 7 4 79 E. F. Year Wh< sat Oats Barley F l a x Rye HUALLEN 1955 13 .10 52 .26 18.86 13.25 2.53 1956 11 .55 57.91 15.09 15.09 0 .44 1957 13 .95 48.05 22.78 10.17 5.05 1958 10 .81 46.62 35.71 6.32 0 .54 1959 13 .48 46 .67 27.45 10.85 1.55 I960 17 .84 45.01 25.74 10.10 1.31 1961 21 .85 40.58 27.21 10.03 0 .33 1962 24 .15 39.29 28.83 7.73 -1963 28 .81 30 .81 30 .17 10.21 — 1964 28 .53 29.93 33 .09 8 .40 -1965 19 .90 25.11 49.95 5 .04 -Mean 18 .54 42.03 28.63 9 .74 1 .07 BEAVERLODGE 1955 18 .26 48 .77 25.84 6.91 0.22 1956 11 .80 54.28 22.12 11.54 0.26 1957 10 .72 49.43 27.22 12.07 0.56 1958 9 .01 48.29 35.90 6.63 0 .17 1959 11 .43 42.30 33.99 12.11 0 .17 I960 15 .33 40.04 31.94 12.27 0 .42 1961 15 .64 40 .18 30.46 13.41 0 .31 1962 14. .51 36.53 33.79 14.67 0.50 1963 9 .77 30 .25 44.31 15.10 0 .57 1964 13. .63 30.95 42.57 11.99 0 .86 1965 8, .20 23 .44 53.95 14.08 0.33 Mean 12, .57 40 .41 34.74 11.89 0 .40 HYTHE 1955 8, .00 48.73 37.06 1.26 2 .90 1956 5, .42 63 .04 28.98 2 .27 0 .29 1957 5, .45 57.76 32 .52 2.74 1.53 1958' 3. .94 54.71 39 .81 0.94 0 .60 1959 4, .13 45.73 48.28 0 .91 0 .95 I960 5, ,89 47.02 43.05 3.66 0.33 1961 7, .62 53.64 34 .70 3.69 0 .35 1962 3, .04 50.47 35.60 5.78 0.11 1963 6, ,80 46 .94 40 .57 5.62 0.07 1964 14. .36 41.67 39 .91 3.90 0 .16 1965 9. .76 31 .90 53.32 4.92 0.10 Mean 7, .23 49.24 39.62 3 .24 0.68 a. Source: Data provided by courtesy of the S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada (Unpublished). 80 each elevator point) varies from 0 . 4 7 at Hythe to 0 . 5 7 at Wembley, as shown i n Table V. The co r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s between the y i e l d s of grain and the elevator receipts are po s i t i v e as shown i n Table VI, with c o e f f i c i e n t f o r wheat and f l a x being s i g n i f i c a n t at the f i v e percent l e v e l at a l l points. The proportion of grain receipts to t o t a l potential production f o r each point shows no s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n with time but c o e f f i c i e n t s were positive and s i g n i f i c a n t between points as shown i n Table VII. There was no s i g n i f i -cant time trend of these proportions, as shown i n Table VIII. Standard deviations of these proportions were not large, and would be much les s i f the 1 9 5 & - 5 9 observations were disregarded. The indications were that t o t a l production was p o s i t i v e l y correlated with the average crop y i e l d f o r census d i s t r i c t 1 5 , and a tendency f o r grain to be shipped to the elevators during the same crop year. Although much of the grain i s fed or sold through other channels than the Canadian Wheat Board, i t was assumed that wheat, rye, and f l a x production was shipped to the elevators. Although re-ceipts at the elevators by kind of grain were not available, oats and barley can be e a s i l y fed or sold, whereas i t was assumed that l i t t l e wheat, rye, or f l a x would be fed or sold f o r feed. Oats and barley would be shipped to f u l f i l l the remainder of the grain delivered to the elevator each year and i t was assumed shipments would be i n proportion to the oats and barley shipped each year i n census d i v i s i o n 1 5 as shown i n Table IX. TABLE V PERCENTAGE* OF TOTAL CROP ENTERING THE COMMERCIAL ELEVATOR SYSTEM^ Percentage Year Grande P r a i r i e % Dimsdale % Wembley % Huallen % Beaverlodge fo Hythe % 1 9 5 5 / 5 6 3 7 . 1 1 3 7 . 4 1 4 3 . 5 1 3 2 . 1 3 3 7 . 2 3 3 4 . 2 0 1 9 5 6 / 5 7 3 3 . 0 4 3 6 . 1 0 4 0 . 9 5 3 3 . 1 9 3 7 . 3 0 3 5 . 7 5 1 9 5 7 / 5 8 3 5 . 7 1 4 4 . 2 4 5 1 . 2 1 3 7 . 4 1 4 3 . 0 2 3 9 . 9 6 1958/59 7 2 . 0 4 8 1 . 2 9 1 0 0 . 0 0 6 4 . 3 7 6 5 . 1 5 7 7 . 3 2 1 9 5 9 / 6 0 3 7 . 9 5 4 3 . 1 1 5 2 . 3 3 3 5 . 4 4 3 7 . 6 3 3 9 . 3 1 1960/61 4 0 . 1 6 5 5 . 9 3 5 3 . 6 2 3 8 . 3 3 3 9 . 2 4 4 0 . 9 0 1 9 6 1 / 6 2 4 8 . 4 1 6 4 . 1 7 6 0 . 7 3 5 2 . 4 8 4 7 . 4 3 5 0 . 1 4 1 9 6 2 / 6 3 4 5 . 6 4 4 7 . 5 2 6 0 . 1 5 5 3 . 6 9 4 7 . 5 2 4 1 . 8 1 1 9 6 3 / 6 4 4 3 . 3 0 4 9 . 1 9 5 4 . 2 0 5 0 . 4 4 3 8 . 7 7 3 4 . 1 1 1 9 6 4 / 6 5 4 3 . 5 0 5 7 . 5 5 5 5 . 4 7 3 4 . 0 3 4 2 . 2 1 3 9 . 5 4 Average 4 3 . 6 8 + 1 1 . 0 2 - . 5 1 . 6 5 ± 1 3 . 6 9 5 7 . 2 2 ±16.29 4 3 . 1 5 ± 1 1 . 1 8 4 3 . 5 5 ± 0 8 . 5 6 4 3 . 0 0 ± 1 2 . 9 2 a ? !Percentage" i s defined as rece i p t s at the country elevator points divided by the sum of wheat, oats, barley, f l a x and rye acres m u l t i p l i e d by average crop y i e l d s f o r census D i s t r i c t No. 1 5 . ^Source of Data: Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, Summary of Country Elevator  Receipts at Individual P r a i r i e Points Crop Year 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 to 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 (Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Con t r o l l e r of Stationery 1 9 5 6 t/o 1 9 6 5 ) ; Census y i e l d data courtesy of "Farm Ergonomics Branch, Alberta^rDepartment oi- Agr-i-culture,, Acr ea.ge. data. courtesy .of S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada (Unpublished). 8 2 TABLE VI CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS BETWEEN RECEIPTS AND YIELDS (BARLEY, OATS, WHEAT, FLAX AND RYE) 1 9 5 6 - 5 7 to 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 a Name Grand P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge Hythe Barley- 0 . 6 1 0 . 7 3 0.72 0 . 6 6 0 . 7 7 0 . 6 8 Wheat 0 . 6 9 0 . 7 4 0 . 7 1 0 . 6 8 0 . 7 0 0 . 7 3 Oat 0 . 6 2 0.72 0.72 0 . 6 8 O . 8 5 0 . 6 8 Flax 0 . 7 5 0 . 8 4 0 . 8 2 0 . 7 7 0 . 8 3 0 Rye O . 5 6 0.72 0 . 4 6 0 . 3 4 ' O . 3 8 0 . 4 7 Values of co r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s s i g n i f i c a n t l y different from, zero are given by R.A. Fisher, S t a t i s t i c a l Methods f o r Research  Workers (Thirteenth E d i t i o n , Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd Ltd., 1 9 5 8 ) p . 2 0 9 , as follows: 5% ( 0 . 6 7 ) ; 2% ( 0 . 7 5 ) ; 1% ( 0 . 8 0 ) . aSource of Data: Y i e l d data provided by courtesy of Farm Economics Branch, Alberta Department of Agriculture; Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, Summary of Country Elevator  Receipts at Individual P r a i r i e Points. Crop Years 1955-56  to 1964-6"5~T0ttawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1 9 5 6 to 1 9 6 5 ) . TABLE V I I CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS BETWEEN PROPORTION OF GRAIN ENTERING THE ELEVATOR AND TOTAL PRODUCTION FOR THE SIX AREAS 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 TO 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 a B e a v e r l o d g e 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 6 1 9 . 9 5 4 7 . 8 4 0 9 . 9 5 7 7 . 9 6 4 8 - . 0 6 6 9 D i m s d a l e 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 9 1 5 8 . 7 4 9 4 . 8 8 9 8 . 9 0 4 9 - . 3 3 7 1 Grande P r a i r i e 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 5 7 5 . 9 4 9 7 . 9 8 2 2 - . 1 8 4 1 H u a l l e n 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 7 6 3 3 . 8 3 6 2 - . 3 0 5 7 Hythe 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 9 6 1 0 . 0 2 8 7 Wembley Time 1 . 0 0 0 0 - . 1 4 5 1 1 . 0 0 0 0 S o u r c e : T a b l e V . 03. TABLE V I I I TIME TREND OF PROPORTION OF GRAIN ENTERING THE ELEVATOR AS COMPARED TO TOTAL PRODUCTION FOR THE YEARS 1955-56 TO 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 a A r e a S t d . E r r o r Y I n t e r c e p t R e g . C o e f f . S t d . E o f R C o e f f . F Prob Grande P r a i r i e 3 . 1 5 6 4 7 . 7 0 8 8 - 5 . 0 5 6 8 9 . 5 4 4 9 . 6 1 4 8 D i m s d a l e 3 . 0 2 3 4 9 . 3 5 0 5 - 7 . 4 5 5 0 7 . 3 6 1 4 . 3 4 2 8 Wembley 3 . 1 7 7 3 7 . 0 4 3 1 - 2 . 6 9 6 7 6 . 5 0 1 9 . 6 8 9 2 H u a l l e n 3 . 0 5 7 6 9 . 0 7 2 2 - 8 . 2 8 0 5 9.1137 . 3 9 3 7 B e a v e r l o d g e 3 . 2 0 4 1 6 . 5 2 7 5 - 2 . 3 6 5 3 1 2 . 4 7 6 5 . 8 3 2 2 Hythe 3 . 2 1 0 0 5 . 2 1 1 1 . 6 7 1 9 8 . 2 7 9 4 . 3 9 6 3 a S o u r c e : T a b l e V . 03-8 5 TABLE IX BARLEY AND OATS RECEIPTS (AS TOTAL BUSHELS BARLEY AND OATS) IN CENSUS DIV IS ION NUMBER 1 5 - 1 9 5 5 / 5 6 TO 1 9 6 4 / 6 5 & Y e a r B a r l e y % Oats 1 9 5 5 / 5 6 5 7 . 0 4 3 . 0 1 9 5 6 / 5 7 5 9 . 0 4 1 . 0 1 9 5 7 / 5 8 4 9 . 0 5 1 . 0 1 9 5 8 / 5 9 6 9 . 0 3 1 . 0 1 9 5 9 / 6 0 7 5 . 0 2 5 . 0 1 9 6 0 / 6 1 7 3 . 0 2 7 . 0 1 9 6 1 / 6 2 7 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 1 9 6 2 / 6 3 7 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 1 9 6 3 / 6 4 7 7 . 0 2 3 . 0 1 9 6 4 / 6 5 7 9 . 0 2 1 . 0 S o u r c e o f D a t a : C a n a d a , Dom in i on B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s and B o a r d o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s f o r C a n a d a , Canada G r a i n T rade ( O t t a w a : Q u e e n ' s P r i n t e r and C o n t r o l l e r o f S t a t i o n e r y 1 9 5 6 t o 1 9 6 5 ) . 86 T o t a l c r o p p r o d u c t i o n was c a l c u l a t e d each y e a r f o r each p o i n t by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e y i e l d o f each c r o p ( f rom Census D i v i s i o n Number 1 5 d a t a ) by i t s r e s p e c t i v e a c r e a g e . The p r o d u c t i o n c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y c o n s i s t e d o f t h e b u s h e l s o f w h e a t , f l a x , and r y e p r o d u c e d p l u s t h e a p p r o p r i a t e b u s h e l s o f o a t s and b a r l e y t o e q u a l g r a i n r e c e i p t s a t t h e s i x e l e v a t o r p o i n t s . Time o f H a r v e s t i n g . E s t i m a t e s o f t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f w h e a t , o a t s , b a r l e y , and f l a x h a r v e s t e d each week f o r Grande P r a i r i e , D i m s d a l e , Wembley , B e a v e r l o d g e , and Hy the were o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e A l b e r t a Wheat P o o l as shown i n A p p e n d i x I I T a b l e L X X X I . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , no t a l l v a l u e s were i n d i c a t e d and some e x t r a p o l a t i o n was r e q u i r e d f o r t h e r e m a i n -i n g w e e k s . These were e s t i m a t e d u s i n g t h e Q u a r t e r l y B u l l e t i n o f A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s . As r e c o r d s f o r one p o i n t were no t a v a i l a b l e , t h e ave rage p r o p o r t i o n o f com-p o s i t e c r o p h a r v e s t e d p e r week was u s e d f o r H u a l l e n as shown i n T a b l e X , These v a l u e s were used t o e s t i m a t e t h e t o t a l b u s h e l s o f g r a i n p r o d u c e d each week w h i c h w o u l d be s h i p p e d t o t h e e l e v a t o r i n t h e same c r o p y e a r . Method o f A g g r e g a t i o n . The method o f c o m b i n i n g a c r e a g e s , y i e l d s , and h a r v e s t i n g r a t e s i n t o a s i n g l e s e r i e s f o r each p o i n t t o r e p r e s e n t c r o p p r o d u c t i o n i s p r e s e n t e d b e l o w i n e q u a t i o n f o r m . 8 7 TABLE X AVERAGE PROPORTION OF COMPOSITE CROP HARVESTED EACH WEEK FIRST 1 5 WEEKS OF CROP YEAR A v e r a g e s f o r P e r i o d 1 9 5 5 t o 1 9 6 4 Grande B e a v e r -Week P r a i r i e D i m s d a l e Wembley H u a l l e n l o d g e Hythe 1 . 0 0 7 9 . 0 2 6 3 . 0 1 0 7 . 0 1 2 4 . 0 0 9 3 . 0 1 5 3 2 .0049 . 0 3 0 7 . 0 1 3 4 . 0 1 1 2 .0006 . 0 0 6 6 3 . 0 5 1 6 . 0 4 9 3 . 0 5 4 1 . 0 5 9 8 . 0 3 7 3 . 1 0 6 9 4 . 0 5 2 7 . 0 9 8 4 . 0 6 7 5 . 0 6 8 1 . 0 8 6 3 . 0 3 5 7 5 . 0 6 6 1 . 0 6 0 9 . 0 5 6 3 . 0 5 7 9 . 0 5 7 5 . 0 4 8 5 6 .1116 . 1 4 2 9 . 1 0 1 5 . 1 0 0 5 . 0 6 5 5 . 0 8 0 9 7 . 0 9 5 1 . 1 0 6 7 . 1 2 0 4 . 1 3 3 7 . 1 5 7 7 . 1 8 8 4 8 . 1 4 0 5 . 1 2 8 3 . 1 8 8 9 . 1 5 2 1 . 1 3 9 3 . 1 6 3 1 9 . 1 2 3 8 . 1 0 8 2 . 0 8 3 4 . 1 0 4 0 . 1 1 8 5 . 0 8 6 0 1 0 . 0 3 9 6 . 0 4 3 6 . 0 6 9 3 . 0 5 7 9 .1082 . 0 2 8 7 1 1 . 0 9 3 3 . 0 6 7 7 . 0 7 4 6 . 0 7 2 1 . 0 6 5 0 . 0 6 0 0 1 2 . 0 8 9 9 . 0 6 2 8 . 0 7 5 8 . 0 7 7 8 . 0 7 8 7 . 0 8 1 8 1 3 . 0 5 2 1 . 0 4 1 4 .0297 . 0 4 0 7 . 0 3 1 5 . 0 4 8 7 1 4 . 0 5 5 8 . 0 3 2 8 . 0 3 9 9 . 0 3 9 5 . 0 2 8 4 . 0 4 0 6 1 5 . 0 1 5 1 - . 0 1 4 5 . 0 1 2 3 . 0 1 6 2 . 0 0 8 8 T o t a l 1 . 0 0 0 0 1 . 0 0 0 0 1 . 0 0 0 0 1 . 0 0 0 0 1 . 0 0 0 0 1 . 0 0 0 0 a S o u r c e o f D a t a : C a l c u l a t e d u s i n g e q u a t i o n number V I . '88 I (Acreage i j k ) ( Y i e l d i j k ) = Bushels i j k where i = f l a x , r ye, and wheat j = Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Beaverlodge, and Hythe k = Crop year I I E l e v a t o r R e c e i p t s ^ - S ^ B u s h e l — k = R (Percent Oat Receipts., ) (R.. ) = 0 Jk j k jk (Percent B a r l e y R e c e i p t s ^ ) (Rj^) = ®jk R = 0 ., + B ., jk jk jk ^-Bushels. + R., = E l e v a t o r R e c e i p t s ^ = Bushels ! J k J k J K p r o d u c e d n j k I I I (Percent Harvest n w j k ) (Bushels P r o d u c e d n j k ) = Crops produced nwjk where n = f l a x , r y e , wheat, oats, and b a r l e y w = week j,k as above IV £ (Crops Produced ) = Pr o d u c t i nwjk w J k V ( P r o d u c t i o n ^ j ^ ) / ( E l e v a t o r R e c e i p t S j ^ ) = R e l a t i v e Bushels VI £ ( R e l a t i v e B u s h e l s W j k ) / k = (Average p r o p o r t i o n of com-p o s i t e Crop H a r v e s t ) w • VII ((Average P r o p o r t i o n Composite Crop Harvest ^ ../Average E l e v a t o r Receipts 1943-64) = Average bushels per week per p o i n t . Equation I i s used t o provide the p h y s i c a l q u a n t i t i e s of wheat, r y e , and f l a x produced each year at each p o i n t . 8 9 S u b t r a c t i o n i n E q u a t i o n I I d e t e r m i n e s t h e b u s h e l s o f b a r l e y and o a t s t o be s h i p p e d t o t h e e l e v a t o r p o i n t s each y e a r w h i c h e q u a t e s p r o d u c t i o n each c r o p y e a r and r e c e i p t s f o r t h a t same c r o p y e a r . The number o f b u s h e l s o f o a t s and b a r l e y were c a l c u l a t e d by u s i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f o a t s t o b a r l e y r e -c e i v e d a t c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s i n Census D i s t r i c t 1 5 each c r o p y e a r . The n e x t s t e p ( E q u a t i o n I I I ) i n v o l v e s t h e amount h a r -v e s t e d each week by g r a i n and by p o i n t t o d e t e r m i n e t h e c r o p s p r o d u c e d , t h a t i s , a v a l u e i s f o u n d f o r each k i n d o f g r a i n f o r each p o i n t e v e r y week . The f o l l o w i n g E q u a t i o n IV c o n v e r t s b u s h e l s o f each k i n d o f g r a i n i n t o a s i n g l e v a l u e e x p r e s s e d as b u s h e l s f o r each week f o r each p o i n t . E q u a -t i o n V e x p r e s s e s t h e b u s h e l s p r o d u c e d as a p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e c o m p o s i t e c r o p h a r v e s t e d each week . These v a l u e s a r e t h e n a v e r a g e d o v e r t h e t e n y e a r s o f o b s e r v a t i o n s p r o v i d i n g t h e a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e c o m p o s i t e c r o p h a r v e s t e d each week . The f i n a l e q u a t i o n c o n v e r t s t h e v a l u e s back i n t o b u s h e l s , bu t u s e s t h e t w e n t y - t w o y e a r ave rage g r a i n r e c e i p t s v a l u e f o r each e l e v a t o r p o i n t . A l t h o u g h t h i s seems a c o m p l i c a t e d method f o r o b -t a i n i n g a t i m e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c r o p p r o d u c t i o n , i t i s an a t t emp t t o a l l o c a t e t h e p r o p e r w e i g h t t o t h e d i f f e r e n t c r o p s p r o d u c e d , and t o p r o v i d e a s e r i e s w h i c h r e f l e c t s t h e c h a n g -i n g a c r e a g e s o f c r o p s p r o d u c e d . I t w o u l d be d e s i r a b l e t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e v a r i a b l e i n f l u e n c e o f w e a t h e r . To do so w o u l d a l s o r e q u i r e an a p p r o a c h s i m i l a r t o t h e one a b o v e , t o 90 g e n e r a t e t h e c r o p s p r o d u c e d . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h i s w o u l d r e -q u i r e a g r e a t d e a l more knowledge and wou ld add a g r e a t d e a l 3 o f c o m p l e x i t y t o t h e mode l . V a r i a b i l i t y o f c r o p p r o d u c t i o n was i n t r o d u c e d as a y e a r l y phenomenon t o r e p r e s e n t t h e c h a n g i n g v a l u e s o f g r a i n r e c e i p t s a t t h e e l e v a t o r p o i n t s . The method used was t o f i n d a s e r i e s o f i n d e x numbers w i t h a mean o f one and a s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f 0 . 3 1 0 2 t o r e p r e s e n t c r o p p r o d u c -t i o n . As each e l e v a t o r p o i n t had a mean o f o n e , t h e v a r i a n c e s were s u b j e c t e d t o t h e B a r t l e t t ' s t e s t . The n u l l h y p o t h e s i s was t h a t t h e v a r i a n c e s o f a l l e l e v a t o r p o i n t s were homo-g e n o u s , and i t was no t r e j e c t e d a t t h e f i v e p e r c e n t p o i n t o f t h e c h i s q u a r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h i s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e mode l v a l u e s c o u l d have been g e n e r a t e d f rom t h e s a m p l e . Thus t h e s e r i e s f o r each e l e v a t o r p o i n t were p o o l e d , and a p r o b a b i l i t y d e n s i t y f u n c t i o n was f o r m e d . T h i s f r e q u e n c y f u n c t i o n was t h e n u s e d v i a t h e Monte C a r l o t e c h n i q u e t o g e n e r a t e a v a l u e u s e d t o m u l t i p l y t h e a v e r a g e c r o p p r o -d u c t i o n f o r each e l e v a t o r p o i n t . The e m p i r i c a l f r e q u e n c y f u n c t i o n was u s e d a l t h o u g h t h e n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n c o u l d f i t t h e d a t a as shown i n T a b l e X l \ An i n t e r e s t i n g s t u d y R . H . D a y , "Dynamic C o u p l i n g , O p t i m i z i n g and R e g i o n a l I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e " , J o u r n a l Farm E c o n o m i c s V I X L : 2 , p . 4 4 2 -4 5 0 . . H . l e h and L . D . B l a c k , Wea the r C y c l e s and Crop P r o d u c t i o n ( W i n n i p e g : U n i v e r s i t y o f M a n i t o b a , Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s and Farm Management , T e c h n i c a l B u l l e t i n 8 , Nov-ember , 1 9 6 4 ) . 91 a t M a n i t o b a u s e s F o u r i e r s e r i e s t o e s t i m a t e c r o p y i e l d s , bu t t h e method was no t u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y as t h e y i e l d d a t a was no t s u f f i c i e n t l y e x t e n s i v e , and much o f t h e c r o p p r o d u c e d d i d no t e n t e r c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s . Thus t h e v a r i a b i l i t y o f r e c e i p t s a t t h e c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s a re u s e d t o p r o v i d e v a r i a b i l i t y o f c r o p p r o d u c t i o n , a l t h o u g h no c y c l e s a r e r e p r e s e n t e d . I n summary, c r o p a c r e a g e s , c r o p y i e l d s , and h a r -v e s t i n g r a t e s p r o v i d e d an a v e r a g e c o m p o s i t e b u s h e l p r o -d u c t i o n each week f o r each a r e a . V a r i a b i l i t y o f p r o d u c t i o n was p r o v i d e d by an e m p i r i c a l i n d e x o f e l e v a t o r r e c e i p t s , u s i n g t h e Monte C a r l o t e c h n i q u e . 9 2 TABLE X I COMPARISON OF RECEIPTS WITH NORMAL DISTRIBUTION AND WITH NEGATIVE BINOMEAL DISTRIBUTION - 1 9 4 3 / 4 4 - 1 9 6 4 / 6 5 a R e c e i p t s / X i n T h e o r e t i c a l T h e o r e t i c a l 2 0 E q u a l i z e d Obse rved Norma l N e g a t i v e B i n o m i a l C l a s s e s F r e q u e n c y D i s t r i b u t i o n D i s t r i b u t i o n . 3 8 3 " ( 5 1 . 9 2 .60 . 4 6 2 J 3 . 0 5 2 . 2 9 . 5 4 4 4 . 6 4 5 . H . 6 2 8 6 . 6 0 8 . 4 3 . 7 0 1 7 8 . 8 6 1 1 . 4 8 . 7 8 7 1 0 . 7 3 1 3 . 4 9 . 8 6 1 0 1 2 . 4 8 1 4 . 4 1 .94 1 4 1 3 . 5 9 1 4 . 2 0 1 . 0 2 1 4 1 3 . 8 0 1 3 . 1 0 1 . 1 0 9 1 3 . 0 3 1 1 . 4 2 1 . 1 0 1 1 1 1 . 6 3 9 . 5 5 1 . 2 6 1 2 9 . 7 3 7 . 6 9 1 . 3 4 7 7 . 5 3 5 . 9 6 1 . 4 2 6 5 . 5 0 4 . 5 0 1 . 5 0 2 1 3 . 7 1 3 . 2 9 1 . 5 8 1 2 . 3 6 2 . 3 6 1 . 6 6 3 )Si 1 . 4 5 1 . 6 8 1 . 7 4 0 . 7 8 1 . 1 5 1 . 8 2 1 .42 . 7 9 1 . 9 0 U . 2 2 . 5 3 C h i - s q u a r e s ( P o o l i n g f i r s t two c e l l s and l a s t s i x c e l l s ) 1 1 . 6 6 1 3 . 6 2 D e g r e e s o f f r eedom 1 7 1 7 X = 1 . 0 0 £ = .3 1 0 2 S o u r c e o f D a t a : B o a r d o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s f o r C a n a d a , Summary o f C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r R e c e i p t s a t I n d i v i d u a l P r a i r i e  P o i n t s C rop Y e a r 1955-56 t o 1964-65 ( O t t a w a : Q u e e n ' s P r i n t e r and C o n t r o l l e r o f S t a t i o n e r y , 1956 t o 1965) . 9 3 I I . FARM STORAGE An e s t i m a t i o n o f f a r m s t o r a g e c o s t s and c a p a c i t i e s was needed i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . C a s u a l o b s e r v a t i o n i n t h e r e g i o n s u g g e s t e d t h e r e was a g r e a t d e a l o f s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y a v a i l a b l e as f a r m g r a n a r i e s . The s i m u l a t i o n p r o -gram was w r i t t e n so t h a t i t was p o s s i b l e t o keep t r a c k o f b o t h f i x e d c o s t s and v a r i a b l e c o s t s o f f a r m s t o r a g e , made up o f a y e a r l y c h a r g e , t h a t i s , f i x e d c o s t r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e amount o f g r a i n s t o r e d and a v a r i a b l e c o s t p e r b u s h e l g r a i n . As a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f t h e f a r m s t o r a g e was no t u n d e r t a k e n f o r t h e r e g i o n , t h i s s t u d y does no t p r o v i d e a comp le te p i c t u r e o f t h e a c t u a l s t o r a g e c o s t s . A g e n e r a l bu t l i m i t e d d i s c u s s i o n o f r e a s o n s and c o s t s o f f a r m s t o r a g e p r e c e d e s t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f c o s t t o p r o v i d e a p r o p e r p e r -s p e c t i v e f o r t h e mode l and c o s t s w h i c h have been a s s u m e d ^ . G e n e r a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s . The c l i m a t e o f A l b e r t a i s i m p o r t a n t i n i n f l u e n c i n g methods and c o s t s o f g r a i n s t o r a g e , and i n t h e f a r m d e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g c a p a c i t y o f f a r m g r a n a r i e s . C e r e a l g r a i n s can be s a f e l y s t o r e d w i t h m i n i -mum c a r e , g i v e n t h a t : ( 1 ) S t o r a g e b i n s e x c l u d e m o i s t u r e and r o d e n t s , ( 2 ) B i n s a r e s p r a y e d w i t h i n s e c t i c i d e s b e f o r e g r a i n s t o r a g e , ( 3 ) g r a i n has a m o i s t u r e c o n t e n t b e l o w ^ J . T . D a v i s and B . L . B r o o k s , E c o n o m i c s o f O n - t h e - F a r m G r a i n  S t o r a g e (Wash ing ton A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e r i m e n t a l S t a t i o n , C i r c u l a r 4 7 3 , F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 7 ) and L . S . Thompson, E c o n o m i c s o f G r a i n  S t o r a g e on Montana Farms (Bozeman: Mon tana S t a t e C o l l e g e and A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p e r i m e n t a l S t a t i o n , T e c h n i c a l B u l l e t i n 5 1 1 , 1 9 5 5 ) . 94 f o u r t e e n p e r c e n t , and (4) p e r i o d i c c h e c k s a re made f o r p r o b l e m s such as h e a t i n g . S i m i l a r l y , c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s p r o v i d e f l u c t u a t i n g c r o p y i e l d s . The c l i m a t e o f A l b e r t a i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e s m a l l number o f c r o p s t h a t can be s u c c e s s f u l l y g rown , c o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e h a r v e s t i n g p e r i o d i s r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t . Bo th f l u c t u a t i n g y i e l d and s h o r t h a r v e s t p e r i o d s c r e a t e d i f f i c u l t y i n d e t e r m i n i n g opt imum s t o r a g e c a p a c i t i e s a t t h e f a r m and c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r . The s h o r t h a r v e s t p e r i o d s u g g e s t s p o s s i b l e b o t t l e n e c k s o c c u r r i n g a t t h e f a r m and c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r . V a r i a b i l i t y o f y i e l d i m p l i e s a v e r a g e v a l u e s a r e i n a d e q u a t e f o r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g and t h e f l u c t u a t i n g c r o p y i e l d s c r e a t e d i f f i c u l t y o f h i g h u t i l i z a t i o n o f f a r m and e l e v a t o r s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y , c e t e r i s p a r i b u s . Farm S t o r a g e A d v a n t a g e s . Farm s t o r a g e does have s e v e r a l a d v a n t a g e s o v e r c o m m e r c i a l s t o r a g e . Movement o f g r a i n f r o m f i e l d t o f a r m s t o r a g e r e q u i r e s a mode o f t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n w h i c h does no t p r e c l u d e t h e use o f u n l i c e n s e d v e h i c l e s and d r i v e r s , p r o h i b i t e d on p u b l i c r o a d s bu t a d e -qua te f o r t h e f a r m . P a r t i a l l o a d s w h i c h may no t be a p p r e c i a t e d by an e l e v a t o r o p e r a t o r can e a s i l y be h a n d l e d and s t o r e d a t t h e f a r m . Farm g r a n a r i e s a l s o a l l o w s e p a r a t e b i n n i n g o f g r a i n f o r p u r p o s e s s u c h as seed and f e e d . F u r t h e r -m o r e , f a r m s t o r a g e a l l o w s h a r v e s t i n g a t n i g h t s and on h o l i -d a y s . T o u g h , damp, o r wet g r a i n can be h a n d l e d a t t h e f a r m , whe reas e l e v a t o r s m igh t be h e s i t a n t i n a c c e p t i n g s u c h g r a i n . 95 Time i s v e r y i m p o r t a n t when h a r v e s t i n g . F r e q u e n t l y an e x t r a t r u c k and e x t r a l a b o u r wou ld be r e q u i r e d t o e n a b l e t h e f a r m e r t o h a r v e s t c o n t i n u o u s l y due t o t h e l o s s i f a queue fo rmed a t an e l e v a t o r , and t h e d i s t a n c e f r o m f i e l d t o e l e v a t o r . I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e t i m e f a c t o r t h e r e i s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f h a u l i n g g r a i n t o c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s d u r i n g t h e s l a c k p e r i o d s o f summer and w i n t e r . D e c i s i o n s r e g a r d i n g t h e magn i tude o f f a r m s t o r a g e space c a p a c i t y wou ld be s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s t o r a g e space a t t h e c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r when r e q u i r e d . R e q u i r e m e n t s f o r f e e d and seed a re i m p o r t a n t i n s t i m u l a t i n g g r a i n s t o r a g e a t t h e f a r m . Farm s t o r a g e makes t h e s a l e s c h a n n e l more f l e x i b l e as a f a r m e r may s e l l f e e d g r a i n t o t r u c k e r s o r f e e d e r s . G r a i n w h i c h i s t o be u s e d o n - f a r m o r s o l d as seed demands f a r m s t o r a g e f o r t h e s e p a r -a t e b i n n i n g o f g i v e n v a r i e t i e s , and t o have an i n v e n t o r y o f g r a i n a v a i l a b l e f o r s a l e . Farm s t o r a g e o f g r a i n as r e s e r v e s may p r o v i d e i n -come s t a b i l i t y f o r v a r i o u s c o n t i n g e n c i e s . The a b i l i t y t o s t o r e g r a i n o v e r a p e r i o d o f t i m e may b e n e f i t t h e f a r m e r by p r o v i d i n g f l e x i b i l i t y i n r e p o r t i n g income t a x . The f a c i l i t i e s , t h e m s e l v e s , may be o f i m p o r t a n c e i n income t a x c a l c u l a t i o n s due t o a c c e l e r a t e d d e p r e c i a t i o n s c h e d u l e s . D i s a d v a n t a g e s o f Farm S t o r a g e . There i s an o b v i o u s , a l t h o u g h d i f f i c u l t t o m e a s u r e , r i s k t h a t f a r m s t o r e d g r a i n may s h r i n k , d e t e r i o r a t e , o r s i m p l y be l o s t t h r o u g h t h e use 96 o f p o o r l y c o n s t r u c t e d b i n s . L o s s o f g r a i n t h r o u g h t h e f t may be s m a l l bu t no t unhea rd o f i n s i t u a t i o n s where b i n s a r e l o c a t e d i n i s o l a t e d a r e a s . P h y s i c a l h a n d l i n g o f g r a i n s e v e r a l t i m e s may cause damage t o g r a i n , e s p e c i a l l y when s p e c i f i c g r a i n s such as m a l t i n g b a r l e y a r e s u b j e c t t o damage. The magn i t ude o f damage o c c u r r i n g i s p r o b a b l y s m a l l bu t t h e c o s t o f h a n d l i n g must a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d . G r a i n s t o r e d i n c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s w o u l d a l w a y s be a v a i l a b l e f o r s a l e t o t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d , o r t o o t h e r f i r m s b u y i n g g r a i n f r om e l e v a t o r s . The s a l e can be t r a n s a c t e d i m m e d i a t e l y , whe reas f a r m s t o r e d g r a i n w o u l d r e q u i r e b o t h t i m e and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s t o b r i n g i t t o t h i s p a r t i c u l a r m a r k e t . The i m p o r t a n c e o f t h i s a s -p e c t i s no t known, and i s p r o b a b l y q u i t e s m a l l i n f a c e o f t h e p r e s e n t m a r k e t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s . As e l e v a t o r s e n t e r i n t o an agreement w i t h t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat Boa rd r e g a r d i n g s t o r a g e and h a n d l i n g c o s t s , t h e r e may be c e r t a i n i n c e n t i v e s f o r e l e v a t o r compan ies t o r e s e r v e e l e v a t o r c a p a c i t y i n e x p e c t a t i o n s o f g r a i n b e i n g s o l d t o t h e B o a r d . The C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d , i n i t s a t t emp t t o c o n t r o l t h e movement o f g r a i n t h r o u g h q u o t a s and s h i p p i n g o r d e r s , may no t d e s i r e t h a t e l e v a t o r s s t o r e g r a i n on b e h a l f o f t h e farmer^* . However , c a u t i o n i s a d v i s e d as i t was no t known i f f a r m e r s use c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s t o s t o r e g r a i n , and i f t h e y d o , t h e vo lume o f g r a i n s t o r e d i n t h i s manner . ^ C . G i s l a s o n , "How Much Has t h e C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d C o s t t h e C a n a d i a n F a r m e r s ? " , J o u r n a l o f Farm E c o n o m i c s X L I : 3 , Augus t 1 9 5 9 , P P . 5 8 4 - 5 9 9 . 9 7 A n o t h e r d i s a d v a n t a g e o f f a r m s t o r a g e i s t h a t t h e r e a r e no p r i c e i n c e n t i v e s t o s t o r e w h e a t , b a r l e y , o a t s , and t h u s t h e f a r m e r w o u l d a v o i d c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f a r m n s t o r a g e by s h i p p i n g g r a i n f r o m f i e l d t o e l e v a t o r . The p r i c e s f o r t h e s e m a j o r g r a i n s a r e s e t y e a r l y , no p r i c e a d v a n t a g e s a r e a v a i l a b l e , and t h e soone r t h e f a r m e r can s h i p g r a i n , t h e l e s s r i s k he i n c u r s i n s t o r i n g g r a i n unde r t h e e x i s t i n g r e g u l a t i o n s . ft I n summary t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f f a r m s t o r a g e a r e . (1) C o n v e n i e n c e (a) Use o f u n l i c e n s e d t r u c k s and d r i v e r s . (b) A b i l i t y t o s t o r e s m a l l l o a d s and t o s t o r e g r a i n s e p a r a t e l y f o r f e e d , s e e d , and o t h e r s i t u a t i o n s . (c ) C o n t i n u o u s h a r v e s t i n g when c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s a r e c l o s e d . (d) F l e x i b i l i t y i n h a n d l i n g t o u g h , damp, o r wet g r a i n . (e) S a v i n g o f t i m e , l a b o u r , and c a p i t a l due t o d i s -t a n c e a n d / o r queues a t e l e v a t o r s . ( f ) Use o f s l a c k l a b o u r t o h a u l g r a i n a t n o n -c r i t i c a l t i m e s , t h a t i s , be tween h a r v e s t i n g and p l a n t i n g . (g) Lack o f c o m m e r c i a l s t o r a g e space a t h a r v e s t t i m e . 7 A . W . Wood, " T e c h n o l o g i c a l Changes i n P r o c e s s i n g , M a r k e t i n g -and D i s t r i b u t i o n and t h e i r Impact on C a n a d i a n A g r i c u l t u r e " , C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s . X : 1 , 1 9 6 2 , p . 5 6 . 8 D a v i s and B r o o k s , p_p_. c i t p p . 3 - 7 ; Thompson, o p . c i t . , p p . 2 5 - 3 2 , 98 (2) S t o r a g e o f f e e d and s e e d f o r immed ia te and f u t u r e n e e d s . (3) M a r k e t f l e x i b i l i t y . (4) R e s e r v e s f o r c o n t i n g e n c i e s . ($) Income t a x . and t h e d i s a d v a n t a g e s a r e : (1) R i s k o f g r a i n s t o r a g e f r o m damage, d e t e r i o r a t i o n , t h e f t , and e x c e s s h a n d l i n g . (2) D i f f i c u l t y of s h i p p i n g g r a i n when d e s i r e d . (3) I n a b i l i t y t o s e l l g r a i n i m m e d i a t e l y . (4) No i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e . These i n f l u e n c e s a r e i n t e r r e l a t e d , and d i f f i c u l t t o d i s e n t a n g l e w i t h o u t a much more comprehens i ve s t u d y . A p r i o r i i t i s c l e a r t h a t t h e r e a r e t r a d e - o f f s between t h e a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s , bu t t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e s e w o u l d be d i f f i c u l t u n d e r t h e s e t o f r e g u l a t i o n s and c i r c u m s t a n c e s w h i c h e x i s t p r e s e n t l y . I t i s n o t c l e a r w h e t h e r a n a l y s i s w o u l d be more o r l e s s d i f f i c u l t i f changes were made i n t h e m a r k e t i n g s y s t e m . However , under any c i r -c u m s t a n c e s , n a t u r e and economic f o r c e s do no t p r o v i d e any e a s y d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f an o p t i m a l p h y s i c a l o r economic f a r m b i n s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y . Farm S t o r a g e C o s t s . T o t a l c o s t o f f a r m s t o r a g e can be b r o k e n i n t o f i x e d and v a r i a b l e c o s t . F i x e d c o s t s o r a n n u a l use c o s t s do no t change w i t h o u t p u t and t h e y i n c l u d e d e p r e c i a t i o n , i n t e r e s t on i n v e s t m e n t , and i n s u r a n c e on t h e 99 b u i l d i n g . These costs accrue whether the f a c i l i t i e s are used or not, and u s u a l l y form the major component of t o t a l c o s t ^ . U t i l i z a t i o n of the f a c i l i t i e s has an important i n f l u e n c e upon the average cost per bushel of g r a i n s t o r e d " ^ . This r e f l e c t s d e c l i n i n g average f i x e d costs as volumes i n -crease. The maximum u t i l i z a t i o n r a t e would be one given t h a t the storage u n i t s were f i l l e d at harvest each year, and not r e f i l l e d u n t i l the next f a l l . V a r i a b l e costs i n c l u d e h a n d l i n g , insurance on g r a i n , shrinkage, and d e t e r i o r a t i o n . These are costs that vary w i t h the a c t u a l number of bushels stored i n that u n i t . A short run average cost curve was determined by researchers u s i n g budgeting to provide an economy of s c a l e curve"^. The cost data i n v o l v e d v a r i o u s s i z e s of round s t e e l b i n s and s t e e l quonset b u i l d i n g s as i n d i c a t e d i n F igure 3. A s i m i l a r f a l l i n costs occurs as ca p a c i t y i n c r e a s e s , as i l l u s t r a t e d i n Table X I I . The curve, i s of course based upon a d i f f e r e n t c l i m a t i c and cost s i t u a t i o n than p r e v a i l s i n A l b e r t a , but the general shape may w e l l apply. 9 Davis and Brooks, op_. c i t . . pp. 18-19. 1 0E.M. McDonald and J.H. McCoy, Costs of S t o r i n g Reserve Stocks of Wheat at Country E l e v a t o r s and on Farms i n Kansas. A g r i c u l t u r a l Marketing S e r v i c e , United States Department of-A g r i c u l t u r e , Marketing Research Report No. 124 (June 1956), pp.16-20. 11 I b i d . . pp.22-23. r Per 3u. Per Yr. Short-run- cost curves 1,000-bushel storage u n i t , 2,200-bushel storage u n i t , 3,276-bushel storage u n i t , 6,552-bushe1 storage u n i t , 13 s104"bushel storage u n i t , round hire round bins round bins round bins round bins f l a t b u i l d 4 i n e STORAGE CAPACITY (THOUS. BU.) Figure 3. Short-run average cost curves and economy™of--scale curve of farm storage. Source: E.M. McDonald and J .M. McCoy, Costs of S t o r i n g Reserve Stocks of Wheat a t Country Elevators and on Farms i n Kansas. A g r i c u l t u r a l Marketing Source United States Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , Marketing Research Report No.124. Washing ton, June 1956. 1 0 1 A n o t h e r a p p r o a c h may be t a k e n . I t i s p o s s i b l e t o compare c o s t s o f g r a i n s t o r a g e on a p e r b u s h e l i n v e s t m e n t b a s i s . The v a l u e s o b t a i n e d were d e t e r m i n e d under t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e c a p a c i t y i s f u l l y used a l t h o u g h i t does n o t r e q u i r e t h a t t h e g r a i n be s t o r e d f o r a s p e c i f i c t i m e p e r i o d . I f v a r i a b l e c o s t s r e m a i n c o n s t a n t o v e r d i f f e r e n t s t r u c t u r e s , and i f d e p r e c i a t i o n r a t e s a r e s i m i l a r t h e n t h e c h e a p e s t p e r b u s h e l c a p a c i t y c o u l d be c h o s e n . T h i s i s a v e r y r ough a p p r o a c h , as t h e a s s u m p t i o n s a r e s t r i c t and do no t h o l d unde r a l l c i r c u m s t a n c e s . The v a r i o u s c o s t s o f c o n s t r u c t i o n a r e shown i n T a b l e X I I . I n summary, t h e r e a r e t h r e e i n f l u e n c e s upon f a r m s t o r a g e c o s t s . These a re t h e t y p e o f b i n , s i z e o f s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y , and t h e d e g r e e o f u t i l i z a t i o n . D e t e r m i n a t i o n o f C o s t s . The re was no i n f o r m a -t i o n r e g a r d i n g t h e t y p e s , c a p a c i t i e s and c o s t s o f f a r m s t o r a g e b i n s f o r t h e s i x s h i p p i n g p o i n t s c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y . The b i n chosen as a p p r o p r i a t e f o r c o s t i n g p u r p o s e s was a 1 , 3 5 0 b u s h e l s t e e l b i n t h a t c o s t 5 1 5 . 7 0 d o l l a r s . The p r i c e i n c l u d e d a wood f l o o r , l a b o u r , and m i l e a g e f o r a c o n t r a c t o r . The f i x e d c o s t p e r y e a r was a s s e s s e d a t 3 8 . 6 5 d o l l a r s p e r b i n . T h i s f i g u r e i n c l u d e s d e p r e c i a t i o n and i n t e r e s t on i n v e s t m e n t as shown i n T a b l e X I I I . I n s u r a n c e on t h e b u i l d i n g was no t i n c l u d e d as t h e b i n i s s t e e l , however r i s k s o t h e r t h a n f i r e c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d . 102 TABLE X I I INVESTMENT COST PER BUSHEL STORAGE CAPACITY OF WOODEN, ROUND STEEL, AND QUONSET BUILDINGS Capacity Wooden Bins S t e e l Bins (Round) Quonset 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 3 5 6 10 55 19 24 28 7 10 14 17 21 30 882 000 000 440 350 650 700 300 500 000 250 500 050 400 750 000 450 000 010 700 000 000 975(51 x 48 3/4 f t . ) 430(51 x 59 f t . ) 985(51 x 69 1/4 f t . ) 538(32 f e e t wide) 930 » 302 » 604 " 578(40 f e e t wide) 273 " 38,973 47,678 Cost/Bushel . 2 5 a .30b .275° . 2 3 a . 3 7 ! . 3 4 e .30^ .23?, .57* • U f .37* .32f .31-• 3 1 o-.487^ .366g . 330S • 325f . 2 6 8 g . 2 2 9 g . 3 4 S | •321 g .30gS • 3 7 h • 3 1 h 27 26 h 27 h .23 , . 1 .20 h L.S. Thompson, op_. c i t , . , p . l 6 . Cost of m a t e r i a l s f o r a wooden frame granary'1951. Appendix I I , Table LXXXII cAppendix I I , Table LXXXIII dAppendix I I , Table LXXXIV e A p p e n d i x . I I , Table LXXXIV fThompson, loc,. c i t . L i s t p r i c e plus concrete foundation w a l l . S D a v i s a n d Brooks, o p . c i t . Includes l i s t p r i c e , concrete f l o o r , plus e r e c t i o n c o s t . ^Thompson, l o c . c i t . Arched roof type s t e e l b u i l d i n g i n c l u d i n g s t e e l l i n i n g concrete f l o o r , and foundation w a l l . 1 0 3 TABLE X I I I THE FIXED COST OF A 1,350 BUSHEL STEEL BIN FOR FARM STORAGE $ 1 , 3 5 0 b u . s t e e l b i n 3 2 8 . 7 0 F l o o r 1 0 0 . 0 0 L a b o u r 8 0 . 0 0 M i l e a g e (assume 2 0 m i l e s @ $ . 3 5 / m i l e ) 7 . 0 0 T o t a l C o s t a 5 1 5 . 7 0 D e p r e c i a t i o n @ 5 % 2 5 . 7 9 I n t e r e s t on I nves tmen t @ 5 % on 1 / 2 V a l u e 1 2 . 8 9 A n n u a l T o t a l F i x e d C o s t P e r B i n b 3 8 . 6 8 O o s t p r o v i d e d c o u r t e s y o f t h e U n i t e d F a r m e r s o f A l b e r t a C o o p e r a t i v e , C a l g a r y , A l b e r t a , 1 9 6 7 . Does no t i n c l u d e i n s u r a n c e on b u i l d i n g o r g r a i n , m a i n -t e n a n c e , o r o t h e r o p e r a t i n g e x p e n s e s . 104 The s t e e l b i n may not be a p p l i c a b l e , but was chosen as (1) maintenance costs are low compared to wood b i n s , (2) f i r e insurance need not be i n c l u d e d , and (3) a p r i c e was e a s i l y e s t a b l i s h e d . No c o n s i d e r a t i o n was taken of the l a n d cost i n determining f i x e d c o s t s . M a t e r i a l s handling equipment was considered as a v a r i a b l e c o s t . Most farmers used por t a b l e augers, and such equipment would not be used unless g r a i n was handled. Perhaps i n i t i a l cost could be prorated f o r g r a i n s o l d at country e l e v a t o r s , s o l d i n other channels, and f o r g r a i n used f o r feed and seed, but i t seems q u i t e d i f f i -c u l t . I f the equipment were an i n t e g r a l part of g r a i n storage f a c i l i t i e s , then o b v i o u s l y f i x e d costs must be assessed. An augur cost of 1.417 cents per bushel was budgeted, as i n d i c a t e d i n Table XIV. Insurance of the g r a i n was not i n c l u d e d as i t was thought that few farmers a c t u a l l y i n s u r e g r a i n . I n -surance might be considered f o r hazards such as f i r e . There i s another aspect t h a t r e q u i r e s c o n s i d e r a t i o n which encompasses a l l r i s k s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h farm storage. Any damage, d e t e r i o r a t i o n , or l o s s e s which can occur i n farm storage of g r a i n are i n c u r r e d by the farmer. These l o s s e s are l a r g e l y caused by poor management, whereas the com-m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r operator i s a s p e c i a l i s t i n g r a i n storage. The extensiveness or occurrences of such l o s s e s are not known, but they are borne by someone. For i n s t a n c e , shrinkage has not been i n c l u d e d as no r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n 105 TABLE X I V FARM HANDLING EQUIPMENT C0STSa ($) (a) Auger 2 5 0 . 0 0 L i f e t e n y e a r s (1) D e p r e c i a t i o n @ 1 0 $ 2 5 . 0 0 (2) I n t e r e s t on i n v e s t m e n t @ 5 % 1 2 . 5 0 (b) E n g i n e 150.00 (1) D e p r e c i a t i o n @ 20$ 3 0 . 0 0 (2) I n t e r e s t on i n v e s t m e n t @ 5 % 7 . 5 0 ( 3 ) M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r s 10.00 T o t a l C o s t 85.00 C o s t p e r b u s h e l assum ing 6,000 b u s h e l s 1.417 ^ / b u s h e l a E s t i m a t e d c o u r t e s y o f t h e Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E n g i n e e r i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f A l b e r t a , 1966. 106 e x i s t s . Perhaps shrinkage rates established by the Board of Grain Commissioners might be adequate, although there would be a change of double-counting such costs. Other variable costs r e l a t i n g to farm storage such as labour, trucking expense from the f i e l d , gas and o i l , and i n -s e c t i c i d e s were not included as these costs were assumed to be r e l a t i v e l y small and i n any event are not available. The trucking expenses from the f i e l d were not included as the cost occurs regardless i f the grain i s stored at the farm or shipped to an elevator. An approximation was made i n an attempt to evaluate these costs. A charge of one-half cent per bushel was a t t r i -buted d i r e c t l y to grain entering farm storage. A further charge of .583 cents, estimated from a study made i n the state of 1 2 Washington, was charged to grain moving from farm storage Thus the t o t a l variable cost was . 0 2 5 d o l l a r s per bushel. Fixed costs were .0286 d o l l a r s per bushel (storage capacity used once per year). The t o t a l cost i s only .0536 d o l l a r s per bushel. This compares with a t o t a l cost of 9.07 13 cents per bushel reported i n a Washington study . The assumed t o t a l variable cost f o r t h i s study was .0048 d o l l a r s l e s s than that f o r a 3,000 bushel round s t e e l bin i n the above mentioned study, whereas the calculated f i x e d cost was 3 . 2 3 cents l e s s than i n Washington as shown i n Table XV. Davis and Brooks, op_. c i t . , p. 18. I b i d . . p.18. TABLE XV TOTAL ANNUAL COST PER BUSHEL FOR GRAIN STORAGE IN 3,000, 5,000, 25,000 BUSHEL ROUND STEEL BINS AND 20,000 BUSHEL QUONSET, 3/4 FULL AND FULL AT COMPLETION OF HARVEST* Storage Cost (cents/bu.) Round Steel - , Quonset 3 , 0 0 0 bu. 5 , 0 0 0 bu. 2 5 , 0 0 0 bu. 2 0 , 0 0 0 bu.d F u l l 3 / 4 F u l l F u l l 3 / 4 F u l l F u l l 3 / 4 - ' F u l l F u l l 3 / 4 F u l l Total Fixed Expense*3 6.09 8 . 0 2 2 . 2 0 3 . 0 0 3 . 3 1 4 . 5 8 4.06 5 . 3 5 Total c Variable Cost 2 . 9 8 2 . 9 8 2 . 9 8 2 . 9 8 2 . 9 8 2 . 9 8 2 . 9 8 2 . 9 8 Total Cost 9 . 0 7 1 1 . 0 0 7 . 8 4 9 . 5 8 6.29 7 . 5 6 7 . 0 4 8 . 3 3 aSource: J.T. Davis and B.L. Brooks, Economics of on-the-farm Grain Storage (VJashington A g r i c u l t u r a l Experiment Station, C i r c u l a r 4 7 3 TFeb. 1 9 6 7 ) p p . 2 3 - 2 4 . Interest at 5 % , depreciation at 1+%, taxes, and insurance including auger and e l e c t r i c motor. Labour f o r loading in-and out of bin, t r e a t i n g and conditioning, truck expense from f i e l d to storage, maintenance and operation, insurance on grain, and shrinkage. Total Investment of $ 7 , 5 0 0 . 1 0 8 A n e s t i m a t e o f t h e p h y s i c a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e s t o r a g e s p a c e i n t h e s i x s h i p p i n g p o i n t s was r e q u i r e d . A s u r v e y made i n t e r v i e w i n g 4 1 f a r m e r s who p r o v i d e d t h e number o f c u l t i v a t e d a c r e s and t o t a l f a r m s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y was u s e d " ^ + . The f a r m e r s were randomly c h o s e n , and t h e s u r v e y t e r m i n a t e d when t h e c u m u l a t e d a v e r a g e c a p a c i t y p e r c u l t i v a t e d a c r e a g e a p p e a r e d t o r e m a i n s t a b l e . The s i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l , Y = a + bX where Y e q u a l s s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y and X e q u a l s c u l t i v a t e d a c r e a g e , was u s e d t o a n a l y z e t h e d a t a . The e s -t i m a t e d e q u a t i o n was : Y = 388.96 + 17.00X F r a t i o ( f o r t h e B c o e f f i -( 3 7 8 2 . 5 7 ) ( 2 . 1 0 ) c i e n t ) = 6 8 . 8 0 w i t h 1 and 3 9 d e g r e e s o f f r e e d o m . R 2 = . 6 3 8 2 The a v e r a g e s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y p e r c u l t i v a t e d a c r e w a s 1 8 . 1 6 b u s h e l s . Some f a r m e r s r e p o r t e d a v a l u e i n d i c a t i n g t h e t o t a l s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y t h a t c o u l d be made a v a i l a b l e , as w e l l as t h e n o r m a l c a p a c i t y . The e q u a t i o n i n t h i s case w a s : Y 2 = 5 3 4 . 5 3 + I 8 . 0 4 X 2 F r a t i o = 7 4 . 1 3 1 and 3 9 d . f . ( 3 7 7 7 . 8 3 ) ( 2 . 1 0 ) R 2 = . 6 5 5 3 The a v e r a g e was 1 9 . 0 8 b u s h e l s s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y p e r c u l t i v a t e d a c r e . B o t h e q u a t i o n s have v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s , and c a p a c i t y was r e a s o n a b l y w e l l e x p l a i n e d by c u l t i v a t e d a c r e a g e . T o o b t a i n t o t a l f i x e d c o s t o f f a r m s t o r a g e f o r each s h i p p i n g p o i n t , t h e c u l t i v a t e d a c r e a g e ( 1 9 6 5 ) was m u l t i p l i e d by t h e a v e r a g e b u s h e l c a p a c i t y p e r c u l t i v a t e d a c r e t o o b t a i n t o t a l c a p a c i t y as shown i n T a b l e X V I . The v a l u e was 1 8 , " ^ T h i s s t u d y was u n d e r t a k e n by L a r r y K a n e , R e s e a r c h A s s i s t a n t , 1 9 6 6 . The o r i g i n a l d a t a i s p r e s e n t e d i n A p p e n d i x I I T a b l e LXXXV. 109 b e i n g rounded o f f t o t h e n e a r e s t b u s h e l . As o n l y a p r o -p o r t i o n o f g r a i n h a r v e s t e d was s h i p p e d t h r o u g h c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s p e r y e a r , t h e r e s t was f e d t o l i v e s t o c k o r s o l d t h r o u g h o t h e r c h a n n e l s . The t o t a l c a p a c i t y was m u l t i p l i e d by t h e w e i g h t e d t e n y e a r a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n o f g r a i n e n t e r -i n g t h e e l e v a t o r as shown i n T a b l e XV I t o o b t a i n an e s t i -mate o f s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y u s e d f o r g r a i n s o l d t h r o u g h c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s . The v a l u e s o b t a i n e d were t h e n d i -v i d e d by t h e assumed s i z e o f f a r m b i n , 1,350 b u s h e l s , t o f i n d t h e number o f f a r m b i n s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e f a r m e r s s e r v e d by each s h i p p i n g p o i n t . The number o f f a r m b i n s p e r s h i p p i n g p o i n t was m u l t i p l i e d by t h e f i x e d c o s t p e r b i n t o o b t a i n f i x e d c o s t s shown i n T a b l e X V I I . The t o t a l f a r m c a p a c i t y was compared t o t h e a v e r -age p o t e n t i a l and 1965 p o t e n t i a l c r o p s i z e . I t was f o u n d t h a t i n b o t h c a s e s t h e s h i p p i n g p o i n t s had more s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y t h a n p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y e x c e p t a t D i m s d a l e when t h e 1965 c r o p s i z e was u s e d as i n T a b l e X V I I I . When e s -t i m a t e d c a r r y o v e r i s added t o t h e 1965 c r o p s i z e , t h e r e i s l e s s c a p a c i t y t h a n t o t a l b u s h e l s t o be s t o r e d a l t h o u g h B e a v e r l o d g e p r o v i d e s t h e e x c e p t i o n i n t h i s c a s e . Farm c a r r y o v e r was e s t i m a t e d by c a l c u l a t i n g t h e a v e r a g e c a r r y o v e r p e r acre o f each c r o p f o r A l b e r t a , shown i n T a b l e X I X , These v a l u e s , m u l t i p l i e d by t h e r e s p e c t i v e a v e r a g e s f o r each c r o p and s h i p p i n g p o i n t , p r o v i d e d a t o t a l f a r m c a r r y o v e r v a l u e . Once a g a i n , t h e v a l u e s were m u l t i p l i e d by t h e ave rage p r o p o r t i o n o f p o t e n t i a l c r o p e n t e r i n g c o m m e r c i a l 1 1 0 TABLE X V I FARM STORAGE CAPACITY ESTIMATED FOR EACH AREA AND BIN CAPACITY USED FOR GRAIN TO BE SOLD THROUGH COUNTRY ELEVATORS* P o i n t Grande P r a i r i e D i m s d a l e Wembley H u a l l e n B e a v e r l o d g e Hy the C u l t i v a t e d A c r e a g e 1 9 6 5 A c r e s 1 5 4 , 4 6 3 2 6 , 5 0 5 5 6 , 9 4 9 2 0 , 8 2 5 1 1 5 , 5 4 7 1 1 3 , 3 1 1 B u s h e l C a p a c i t y P e r C u l t . A c r e , 1 9 6 5 B u s h e l s 1 8 . 0 1 8 . 0 1 8 . 0 1 8 . 0 1 8 . 0 1 8 . 0 T o t a l Farm S t o r a g e C a p a c i t y B u s h e l s 2 , 7 8 0 , 3 3 4 • 5 1 3 , 0 9 0 1 , 0 2 5 , 0 8 2 • 3 7 4 , 8 5 0 2 , 0 7 9 , 8 4 6 2 , 0 3 9 , 5 9 8 C a p a c i t y Used f o r G r a i n S o l d B u s h e l s 1,214,728 2 6 5 , 0 1 1 5 8 6 , 5 5 2 161,748 905,773 877,027 S o u r c e : T a b l e V and A p p e n d i x I I T a b l e L X X V I . TABLE X V I I FIXED FARM STORAGE COST BY A R E A a P o i n t C a p a c i t y B u s h e l s A v e r a g e B i n S i z e (Assumed) B u s h e l s N o . B i n s T o t a l C o s t / B i n C o s t Grande P r a i r i e D i m s d a l e Wembley H u a l l e n B e a v e r l o d g e Hy the 1,214,723 265,011 5 8 6 , 5 5 2 161,748 905,773 877,027 1 , 3 5 0 1 , 3 5 0 1 , 3 5 0 1 , 3 5 0 1 , 3 5 0 1 , 3 5 0 9 0 0 1 9 6 4 3 5 1 2 0 6 7 1 6 5 0 3 8 . 6 7 3 3 . 6 7 3 8 . 6 7 3 3 . 6 7 3 3 . 6 7 3 8 . 6 7 8 0 3 . 0 0 5 7 9 . 3 2 8 2 1 . 4 5 6 4 0 . 4 0 2 5 i 9 4 7 . 5 7 2 5 , 1 3 5 . 5 0 3 4 7 1 6 4 * S o u r c e : T a b l e X I I I and X V I . TABLE X V I I I FARM STORAGE CAPACITY PRODUCTION AND PER POTENTIAL BUSHEL PRODUCTION (WHEAT, OATS, BARLEY, F L A X , AND RYE) FOR TEN YEAR AVERAGE OF CROPS FOR 1965 a A r e a Grande P r a i r i e D i m s d a l e Wembley H u a l l e n B e a v e r l o d g e Hy the Ave rage P o t e n t i a l C rop B u s h e l s 1 , 9 3 2 , 0 1 6 . 5 4 0 0 , 4 4 6 . 3 3 0 3 , 4 8 6 . 4 • 2 5 5 , 1 4 4 . 9 1 , 2 3 5 , 9 7 7 . 0 1 , 4 5 7 , 2 3 0 . 2 P o t e n t i a l T o t a l C r o p Farm 1 9 6 5 C a p a c i t y B u s h e l s 2 , 5 6 2 , 1 5 2 5 2 6 , 1 1 2 9 4 9 , 9 0 3 - 3 2 6 , 1 0 6 1 , 6 0 6 , 5 1 3 1 , 9 6 9 , 8 4 4 B u s h e l s 2 , 7 8 0 , 3 3 4 - 5 1 3 , 0 9 0 1 , 0 2 5 , 0 8 2 - 3 7 4 , 8 5 0 2 , 0 7 9 , 8 4 6 2 , 0 3 9 , 5 9 8 C a p a c i t y C a p a c i t y C a p a c i t y A v . C rop P o t e n t i a l P o t e n t i a l C rop Crop 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 5 p l u s C a r r y -o v e r 1 . 4 0 1 . 0 9 . 9 0 1 . 2 8 0 . 9 8 . 8 1 1 . 2 8 1 . 0 3 . 8 8 1 . 4 7 1 . 1 5 . 9 5 1 . 6 8 1 . 3 0 1 . 0 8 1 . 4 0 1 . 0 4 . 8 7 S o u r c e : T a b l e s V , X V I , and A p p e n d i x I I T a b l e s L X X , L X X I , L X X I I , L X X I I I , L X X I V , L X X V , L X X V I I , L X X V I I I , L X X I X , and LXXX. 112 elevators as shown i n Table XX. This was a method of pro-r a t i n g carryover attributable to the grain which would be sold to the elevator company or Canadian Wheat Board. These values were subtracted from the o r i g i n a l capacities as prorated, to provide an estimate of farm storage space that could be used i n any crop year as shown i n Table XXI. As t h i s grain could be stored at the elevator f o r the farmers, the rate of off-farm shipments was not known, and the reasons f o r farm storage were not e x p l i c i t l y known, i t was assumed f o r purposes of cost c a l c u l a t i o n that the farm carryover would remain constant at the calculated yearly average carryover. Summary. This section has involved consideration of the various influences and decisions involved i n farm storage. Although a thorough study was not made, an attempt was made to approximate the costs involved i n farm storage. A small survey provided an estimate of the magnitude of farm storage i n the shipping points under study. This plus budgeted costs provided the basis f o r estimating the costs of farm storage. Carryover was included, but did not influence costs as the carryover incorporated by reducing only the physical capacities. 1 1 3 TABLE XIX AVERAGE CROP YEAR END CARRYOVER ON FARMS OF WHEAT, OATS, BARLEY, FLAX a, AND RYE b PER CROP ACRE OF SAME YEAR (1955-64)° Wheat 7 . 0 5 bu./acre Oats 1 0 . 6 0 bu./acre Barley 6 . 2 8 bu./acre Rye 2 . 5 0 bu./acre Flax . 5 0 bu./acre dCrop Year 1 9 6 3 - 6 4 bCrop Year 1 9 6 3 - 6 4 cSource: Alberta Department of Agriculture, Farm Economics Branch, S t a t i s t i c s of Agriculture f o r Alberta 1 9 5 5 , ..., 1 9 6 4 (Edmonton: Farm Economics Branch 1 9 5 6 to 1 9 6 5 ) . TABLE XX TOTAL CARRYOVER OF WHEAT, OATS, BARLEY, FLAX AND RYE AS a.b ESTIMATED IN EACH OF THE SIX REGIONS"' Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe Total Bushels 529,300 108,960 213,773 6 8 , 1 1 3 3 2 2 , 0 5 5 382,814 Proportion Grains Shipped . 4 3 6 9 . 5 1 6 5 .5722 . 4 3 1 5 . 4 3 5 5 . 4 3 0 0 Proportion Bushels 0 Carryover 231,251 5 6 , 2 7 8 122,321 29,391 140,255 164,610 Source: Table V and Table XIX and Appendix II Tables LXX, -LXXI, LXXII, LXXIII, LXXIV, and LXXV. ""Sum (Acreages mu l t i p l i e d by average carryover of each crop). "Proportion bushels estimates bushels carryover which would be held f o r sale through commercial elevators. 114 TABLE XXI TEN YEAR AVERAGE FARM STORAGE CAPACITY AVAILABLE FOR CROP PRODUCTION FOR THE INDIVIDUAL POINTS* ' Point E f f e c t i v e Storage Capacity (Bushels) Grande P r a i r i e 983,477 Dimsdale 208,733 Wembley 464,231 Huallen 132,357 Beaverlodge 765,518 Hythe 712,417 Source: Table XVI and Table XX. 115 I I I . TEMPORARY GRAIN STORAGE I n t r o d u c t i o n . P r a i r i e f a r m e r s use a w ide v a r i e t y o f b u i l d i n g s f o r g r a i n s t o r a g e . These b u i l d i n g s range f r o m s o p h i s t i c a t e d s t r u c t u r e s , i n c o r p o r a t i n g complex m a t e r i a l -h a n d l i n g p r o c e d u r e s , t o s i m p l e wooden b i n s . G r a i n i s a l s o s t o r e d on the g r o u n d . There a re s e v e r a l methods a d v o c a t e d f o r t e m p o r a r y g r a i n s t o r a g e , r a n g i n g f r o m the use o f empty sheds and o t h e r b u i l d i n g s t o the s i m p l e s t method of a l l — t h e dumping o f g r a i n i n t o c o n i c a l p i l e s d i r e c t l y on t he g r o u n d . There i s l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g c o s t s o r e x t e n t o f t e m p o r a r y s t o r a g e . No q u a n t i t a t i v e s t u d y r e g a r d i n g t h e c o s t s o f s t o r i n g g r a i n by s u c h methods can be made. However , one e x p e r i m e n t has been c o n d u c t e d t o f i n d the p h y s i c a l l o s s o f g r a i n ove r a s e v e n month t ime p e r i o d as shown i n Tab le X X I I . U s i n g t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , p l u s s e v e r a l a s s u m p t i o n s , a r e l a t i o n s h i p was d e v e l o p e d f o r use i n t h i s m o d e l . A g r i c u l t u r a l e x t e n s i o n s e r v i c e s recommend s e v e r a l p o s s i b l e methods f o r emergency or t e m p o r a r y s t o r a g e * ^ . These methods i n c l u d e ; (1) Sheds and o t h e r b u i l d i n g s , (2) Temporary p lywood b i n s , (3) Temporary wooden b i n s , (4) Snow f e n c i n g and heavy p a p e r , (5) Woven w i r e s and s t r a w o r s h e a v e s , 15 A l b e r t a Depar tment of A g r i c u l t u r e , A g r i c u l t u r a l E n g i n e e r i n g S e c t i o n , Temporary G r a i n S t o r a g e . Augus t 1965. TABLE X X I I GRAIN LOSSES IN TEMPORARY GRAIN STORAGE a Crop Method o f S t o r a g e A m t . B u s . on O c t . 1 4 / 5 2 A m t . B u s . on J u n e 1/53 L o s s % Wgt/1000 K e r n e l s 1952' 1953 W g t / m e a s . B u s . 1952 1953 Ccmm. 1952 ' Grade 1953 Wheat open p i l e 5 0 1 . 0 4 6 0 . 5 8 . 8 2 7 . 3 2 6 . 5 5 8 . 0 5 8 . 0 #5 #5 Wheat c o v e r e d 5 0 1 . 0 4 9 7 .5 0 . 7 3 0 . 4 2 9 . 7 60 . 0 6O.5 #4 #4 O a t s open p i l e 5 H . 0 4 0 7 . 0 2 0 . 3 2 6 . 0 2 6 . 1 4 1 . 0 4 0 . 0 E x t ,1 Feed Oa ts c o v e r e d 4 1 9 . 0 4 0 9 . 0 2 . 4 26 .3 2 6 . 4 4 1 . 5 4 0 . 0 E x t . l Feed B a r l e y open p i l e 4 7 2 . 0 4 4 3 . 0 8 . 8 3 8 . 9 3 7 . 2 4 7 . 5 5 0 . 0 l F e e d 1 Feed B a r l e y c o v e r e d 388.0 3 8 4 . 0 1 . 0 3 7 . 1 3 6 . 7 4 7 . 5 4 7 . 0 1 Feed 1 Feed a S o u r c e : P r o v i d e d i n c o r r e s p o n d e n c e w i t h Canada Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r e R e s e a r c h B r a h c , E x p e r i m e n t a l F a r m , S c o t t , S a s k a t c h e w a n . 1—1 117 (6) B a l e d s t r a w o r hay and w i r e t i e s , and (7) Open p i l e s . Sheds a re o f t e n used as the f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e , as the b u i l d i n g p r o v i d e s adequa te s h e l t e r f r o m the w e a t h e r . The t e m p o r a r y wood and p lywood b i n s a re s i m p l y s t r u c t u r e s t o r e t a i n g r a i n by m i n i m i z i n g t he s u r f a c e a r e a e x p o s e d . Snow f e n c i n g i s o f t e n used t o e n c i r c l e o p e n - t o p p e d p i l e s . A c i r c u l a r shape i s fo rmed w i t h t h e f e n c i n g , w i t h heavy v a p o r pape r o r heavy p l a s t i c as the l i n i n g . Woven w i r e i s used i n a s i m i l a r manner ,bu t r e q u i r e s a s t r o n g e r l i n i n g . I n b o t h c a s e s , t he c i r c u m f e r e n c e used i s no t g e n e r a l l y more t h a n f i f t y t o s i x t y , f e e t . B a l e d hay or s t r a w i s used f o r t e m p o r a r y g r a i n s t o r a g e c o n s t r u c t i o n . The b a l e s a re s i m p l y p l a c e d l e n g t h w i s e i n a c i r c u l a r f a s h i o n and bound w i t h w i r e t i e s . S e v e r a l l a y e r s c a n be u s e d , a l t h o u g h a h e i g h t o f more t h a n f o u r b a l e s i s no t recommended. F i n a l l y t he g r a i n may be a u g e r e d i n t o c o n i c a l p i l e s . Farmers have been o b s e r v e d u s i n g t h i s method i n a r e a s n e a r the r e g i o n under s t u d y " ^ . P o l y e t h y l e n e i s u s u a l l y recommended t o s e r v e as a g round s h e e t , p r e v e n t i n g s p o i l a g e o f the g r a i n l a y e r c l o s e s t t o the g r o u n d . I n a l l c a s e s the g r a i n s h o u l d f o r m a smooth c o n i c a l t o p so t h a t l i t t l e r a i n damage o c c u r s and i t can be c o v e r e d i f p o s s i b l e . T h i s method uses v e r y l i t t l e l abour and i n v e s t m e n t . F . G r a v e s , D i s t r i c t A g r i c u l t u r i s t , P e r s o n a l C o m m u n i c a t i o n , S p i r i t R i v e r , A l b e r t a , F e b r u a r y 1967. 118 Multipurpose buildings which function as grain storage structures when required are becoming important, a l -17 though l i t t l e i s known about the magnitude of such storage The important point i s that the above methods provide large storage capacities at low construction costs. Costs of Ground Storage. Three assumptions are used: (1) the grain i s simply p i l e d into conical heaps, (2) the use of ground storage i s the resultant of a lack of available storage capacity, that i s , farm bins, and (3) the farmer attempts to remove ground stored grain at the e a r l i e s t opportunity,, Ground storage was chosen as i t i s the simplest method, uses no materials, and because some information i s available. The d i f f i c u l t y i s that cost i s a function of several variables i n addition to time. Some of the obvious factors are s o i l moisture, condition of the grain, geometry of the p i l e , neatness of the p i l e , weather, rodents, and kinds of grain- The geometry of the grain p i l e s i s important as the ground area covered by grain i n -creases with the square of the radius, and the volume i n -creases as a cubic function of the radius divided by three, given a f o r t y - f i v e degree angle—approximately correct as the angle of i n c l i n a t i o n of grain. Cost i s not a simple function of time but rather a complicated function of time involving other variables. Such a function was only con-ceptualized, but a simple'relationship between time and cost was needed so that ground storage costs could be estimated. 17 J.L. Reid, Senior Extension Engineer, Personal Communication, Edmonton, Alberta, A p r i l l+, 1967. 119 An e x p e r i m e n t was c o n d u c t e d a t the e x p e r i m e n t a l f a r m a t S c o t t , S a s k a t c h e w a n as shown i n Tab le X X I I . B a r l e y , w h e a t , and o a t s were s t o r e d i n two ways d u r i n g t he p e r i o d O c t o b e r , 1952, t o J u n e , 1953• An open p i l e w i t h no p r o -t e c t i o n was used as one a l t e r n a t i v e , w h i l e t he o t h e r method used snow f e n c i n g l i n e d w i t h oa t sheaves and c o v e r e d the g r a i n w i t h oa t s h e a v e s . The f i r s t method r e s u l t e d i n a w e i g h t l o s s o f 20.3 p e r c e n t i n o a t s , 8 . 8 p e r c e n t i n b a r l e y and So 8 p e r c e n t i n whea t . B a r l e y and o a t s s u f f e r e d a d e -c r e a s e i n q u a l i t y , as i n d i c a t e d by a one u n i t r e d u c t i o n i n g rade p o s s e s s e d . The l o s s o f w e i g h t r e s u l t e d l a r g e l y f r o m s p r o u t i n g and m o u l d i n g a t the bo t toms o f the p i l e s . The l a r g e w e i g h t l o s s i n o a t s was p a r t i a l l y due t o b i r d s and r a b b i t s w h i c h d i s t u r b e d the c o n i c a l shape o f the p i l e , p o s s i b l y a chance phenomenon, and t o t he k e r n e l shape w h i c h a l l o w e d w a t e r t o p e n e t r a t e r a t h e r t h a n r u n o f f . The second method' p r o v i d e d s u r p r i s i n g l y good p r o -t e c t i o n as the w e i g h t l o s s was 3«4 p e r c e n t f o r o a t s , 1.0 p e r -c e n t f o r b a r l e y , and 0.7 p e r c e n t f o r w h e a t . Oats d e c l i n e d one g r a d e . L i t t l e was l o s t due t o b i r d s and r o d e n t s , bu t l i g h t l o s s o c c u r r e d f r o m m o u l d i n g and s p r o u t i n g caused by 1 8 s t r o n g w i n d s s h i f t i n g the c o v e r i n g s h e a v e s . These v a l u e s s u p p o r t an e s t i m a t e by t h e D i s t r i c t A g r i c u l t u r i s t ' s o f f i c e a t C a l g a r y o f a t e n p e r c e n t w e i g h t l o s s i n u n c o v e r e d p i l e s w i t h o u t a g round s h e e t . I t was t h e i r h y p o t h e s i s t h a t l i t t l e damage o c c u r s i f g r a i n i s IB The g r a i n t h a t a p p e a r s t o be s t o r e d on the g round a t minimum c o s t i s b a r l e y . 120 s t o r e d a s h o r t p e r i o d o f t ime a l t h o u g h f a l l r a i n s c o u l d cause damage. W i n t e r months wou ld i n v o l v e l i t t l e damage, bu t s p r i n g b reakup wou ld cause c o n s i d e r a b l e damage. S i n c e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p be tween t i m e and g round s t o r a g e c o s t i s no t known, v a r i o u s h y p o t h e t i c a l f u n c t i o n s c o u l d be u s e d . The r e l a t i o n m igh t be d e s c r i b e d as an e x p o n e n t i a l f u n c t i o n o r as a f u n c t i o n i n e i t h e r Common o r N a p e r i a n l o g a r i t h m s . However , a s t r a i g h t l i n e m igh t p r e d i c t j u s t as w e l l as o t h e r f u n c t i o n s . A r e a s o n a b l e f u n c t i o n i s p e r -haps a s i g m o i d - l i k e f u n c t i o n . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g a c o n i c a l p i l e w i t h o u t g r o u n d s h e e t o r o t h e r p r o t e c t i o n has been assumed . The p a r t i c u l a r s i g m o i d - l i k e f u n c t i o n assumed i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 4 . The f i g u r e i s p r e s e n t e d as f o u r l i n e a r segments w i t h segments AB and BC d e t e r m i n e d f r o m the i n f o r m a t i o n s u p p l i e d by the s t u d y men t ioned a b o v e . The s l o p e s were weighted by one and two r e s p e c t i v e l y , t h a t i s t he r a t e of damage d u r i n g March t o June i s t w i c e t h a t o f O c t o b e r t o M a r c h . The c o s t o f the s t o r a g e was d e t e r m i n e d by t a k i n g t he t e n y e a r ave rage o f t h e f i n a l r e a l i z e d p r i c e s o f b a r l e y , w h e a t , and oa t s and m u l t i p l y i n g by the r e s p e c t i v e w e i g h t l o s s o f t he g r a i n s . R e s u l t a n t v a l u e s were t h e n we ighed by t he t e n y e a r ave rage o f t he t y p e s o f c r o p s s h i p p e d f r o m 19 Census D i v i s i o n number f i f t e e n , and summed t o p r o v i d e the compos i t e c o s t o f s t o r i n g g r a i n on the g round f o r t ime A C , The o t h e r two s e g m e n t s , OA and CD, were s i m p l y d e t e r m i n e d 1Q 7 T h e s e v a l u e s were no t a v a i l a b l e f o r the r e g i o n under s t u d y . The d a t a i s shown i n A p p e n d i x I I Tab le L X X X V I . 121 Cost in cents per bushel T i me i n week? Figure 4 . Ground storage as a cost function of t i m e . 1 2 2 by t a k i n g o n e - h a l f o f the w e e k l y cha rge d e t e r m i n e d f o r segment A B . The c a l c u l a t i o n s were as f o l l o w s ; Sum ( P e r c e n t d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f g r a i n i ) ( A v e r a g e P r i c e g r a i n i ) ( A v e r a g e p e r c e n t r e c e i p t s g r a i n i ) e q u a l s T o t a l Compos i te c o s t pe r b u s h e l e q u a l s 1 4 . 1 1 2 s where i e q u a l s o a t s , w h e a t , and b a r l e y , as shown i n Tab le X X I I I and Tab le X X I V , C o s t p e r week O c t o b e r t o Ma rch ( 2 0 weeks) = ( 5 / H x 1 4 . 1 1 2 ) / 2 0 = . 3 2 1 c e n t s C o s t pe r week March t o June ( 1 2 weeks) = ( 6 / 1 1 x 1 4 . 1 1 2 ) / 1 2 = . 6 4 1 c e n t s C o s t p e r week Augus t t o O c t o b e r and June t o Augus t « = 1 / 2 ( . 3 2 1 ) = . 1 6 0 c e n t s The t o t a l c o s t o f g round s t o r a g e f o r one y e a r i s t h u s 1 7 . 3 1 c e n t s pe r c o m p o s i t e b u s h e l . The c o m p u t a t i o n s used t he p e r c e n t l o s s i n w e i g h t bu t d i d no t i n c l u d e t h e g rade l o s s as the p r i c e s were t e n y e a r f i n a l r e a l i z e d p r i c e a v e r a g e s o f number one N o r t h e r n w h e a t , number two W e s t e r n o a t s , and number t h r e e Canada s i x - r o w b a r l e y . T h i s a p p r o a c h was t a k e n as the p r i c e change o f o a t s and b a r l e y was no t c o n s i d e r e d i m p o r t a n t when l o s i n g a g r a d e , and an upper bound f o r the c o s t o f g round s t o r a g e was d e s i r e d . The r a t i o n a l e f o r the p r o c e d u r e i s t h a t l i t t l e d e t e r i o r a t i o n t a k e s p l a c e f r o m Augus t t o O c t o b e r . M o i s t u r e f r o m f a l l r a i n s o r e a r l y snow c o u l d seep i n t o t he p i l e and a l l o w damage d u r i n g the p e r i o d O c t o b e r t o M a r c h . The h i g h TABLE XXIII 123 CANADIAN WHEAT BOARD PAYMENTS FOR # 1 NORTHERN WHEAT, # 2 CANADIAN WESTERN OATS, AND # 3 CANADA 6-ROW BARLEY3-(Total Realized Price) Year Wheat (-$) Oats ($) Barley ($) 1955/56 1 . 6 0 9 7 9 . 8 1 0 8 . 3 1 9 5 6 / 5 7 1 . 5 8 8 6 5 . 0 1 0 2 . 0 1 9 5 7 / 5 3 1 . 6 2 1 6 7 . 4 1 0 3 . 3 1 9 5 3 / 5 9 1 . 5 9 6 6 9 . 5 1 0 0 . 7 1 9 5 9 / 6 0 1 . 5 9 0 7 7 . 1 9 8 . 2 1 9 6 0 / 6 1 1 . 7 9 5 7 4 . 2 1 0 4 . 5 1 9 6 1 / 6 2 1 . 9 1 0 7 7 . 2 1 2 8 . 0 1 9 6 2 / 6 3 1.874 7 1 . 8 1 1 3 . 2 1 9 6 3 / 6 4 1 . 9 7 4 6 9 . 2 1 1 7 . 8 1 9 6 4 / 6 5 1 . 3 3 7 7 7 . 2 1 2 6 . 0 MEAN ($) 1 . 7 4 0 . 7 3 1 . 1 0 Source of Data: Canadian Wheat Board, Report of the  Canadian Wheat Board Crop Year 1965-66 (Winnipeg, January, 1 9 6 7 ) Appendix, Table XXII, p . 1 9 . 1 2 3 a TABLE XXIV COSTS OF GRAIN DETERIORATION FOR GROUND STORAGE* G r a i n D e t e r i o r a t i o n % A v . P r i c e $ C o s t t Crop P r o d ' n % Compos i t e C o s t Wheat 8 . 8 1 . 7 4 1 5 . 3 1 2 0 . 3 5 5 . 3 5 9 2 0 B a r l e y 8 . 8 1 . 1 0 9 . 6 8 0 . 2 0 1 . 9 3 6 0 0 Oats 2 0 . 3 0 . 7 3 1 4 . 8 1 9 0 . 4 6 6 . 8 1 6 7 4 TOTAL COMPOSITE COST P E R BUSHEL 1 4 . 1 1 1 9 a S o u r c e o f D a t a : Tab le X X I I and Tab le X X I I I . 124 r a t e o f d e t e r i o r a t i o n t a k e s p l a c e d u r i n g the s p r i n g b r eak-up as shown by segment BC. The r e m a i n i n g segment, CD, i s the same r a t e as p o s t u l a t e d i n segment OA. A p r i o r i , the i n t e r c e p t s h o u l d be g r e a t e r t h a n z e r o , as t h e r e i s some g r a i n l o s t r e g a r d l e s s of time due t o the problem of r e m o v a l . The second e r r o r l i e s i n segment AB, as the w i n t e r months are u s u a l l y c o l d enough t o p r e -v e n t most t y p e s of damage, and t h e r e f o r e t h e r a t e of d e t e r i o r a t i o n might approach z e r o . • The c o m b i n a t i o n of s l o p e , t i m e , and c o s t p r o v i d e s a w e e k l y per b u s h e l c o s t u s i n g each h y p o t h e s i z e d l i n e a r segment as a r e c t a n g u l a r d i s t r i b u t i o n . The l a c k of s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g g r a i n l o s s e s , and the amount o f g r a i n a c t u a l l y s t o r e d by such a method l i m i t t h e p r e c i s e n e s s t h a t i s d e s i r e d . The assumptions p r o v i d e one method, a l b e i t s i m p l e , t o e s t i m a t e t h e upper bound of ground s t o r a g e c o s t s . More r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e economics and b i o l o g i c a l a s p e c t s of ground s t o r a g e would be u s e f u l . 125 20 IVo FARM TO COUNTRY ELEVATORS. HAULING COSTS, The p roposed s i m u l a t i o n mode l r e q u i r e s t he e s t i m a -t i o n o f the h a u l i n g c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the movement o f g r a i n f r o m f a r m t o c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r . Any change i n e l e v a -t o r c o n f i g u r a t i o n wou ld a f f e c t g r a i n h a u l i n g d i s t a n c e s and hence h a u l i n g c o s t s , and c o n s e q u e n t l y , g r a i n m a r k e t i n g c o s t s , T r u c k i n g C o s t s , The b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n i s t h a t f a r m t r u c k s a re e s s e n t i a l i n the a s s e m b l y o f g r a i n f r o m f a r m t o c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r . The c o s t o f h a u l i n g g r a i n f r o m f i e l d t o f a r m b i n has no t been d e a l t w i t h e x p l i c i t l y , as g r a i n must n e c e s s a r i l y move an i n i t i a l d i s t a n c e r e g a r d l e s s o f where t he g r a i n i s s h i p p e d . There a r e e x c e p t i o n s bu t t he magn i tude i s unknown. T ruck h a u l i n g c o s t s a r e i m p o r t a n t when compar ing v a r i o u s methods o f mov ing g r a i n . T r u c k s a re c o m p e t i t i v e 21 w i t h r a i l r o a d s f o r s h o r t d i s t a n c e s , However the s t a t u t o r y r a i l r a t e s f o r g r a i n and t he n a t u r e o f g r a i n have p r e v e n t e d 22 s e r i o u s t r u c k c o m p e t i t i o n o t h e r t h a n f o r v e r y s h o r t d i s t a n c e s 20 A C a n a d i a n s t u d y w h i c h d e a l s e x c l u s i v e l y w i t h t h i s s u b j e c t i s K . B , Young , An A n a l y s i s o f the C o s t o f A s s e m b l i n g G r a i n  bv Farm T r u c k s i n M a n i t o b a , R e s e a r c h R e p o r t N o . 1 1 , D e p a r t -ment o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f M a n i t o b a , O c t o b e r , 1966 . 21 R . L . K o h l s , M a r k e t i n g o f A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t s (Second E d i -t i o n ; New Y o r k : The M a c m i l l a n Company, 1961) p p . 2 3 8 f f ; E . M . H o o v e r , The L o c a t i o n of Economic A c t i v i t y (New Y o r k : McGraw-H i l l Book Company, I n c . , 1948) p p . 1 9 - 2 1 . 22 R e p o r t o f t he R o y a l Commiss ion on T r a n s p o r t a t i o n (Queen 's P r i n t e r and C o n t r o l l e r o f S t a t i o n e r y : O t t a w a , 1962) V o l , 111. p . 4 8 . 126 that i s farm to elevator„ The problem i s that such limited use of trucks may not be s o c i a l l y appropriate when a l l s o c i a l costs are examined. Assuming such d i f f i c u l t i e s away, the problem here i s to obtain quantitative estimates f o r grain transport costso Various approaches, such as budgeting costs or using commercial rates (See Appendix II Tables LXXXVII, LXXXVIII, LXXXIX, and XC), were obtained to provide estimates. A study by K.B. Young^ 3 was chosen as a model f o r data needed here. The costs, as reported by Young, are generally lower than the suggested minimum commercial rates (Appendix II Table LXXXVII), although no truck capacities are indicated for commercial rates. It was de-cided that Young's costs would be applicable i n t h i s study as i t deals exclusively with farm trucks, and provides the important dimension of capacity which would otherwise be neglected. Although i t cannot be said that Young's es-timated costs are equal to the underlying parameters i n this study, they do appear reasonable i n that good predic-tions can be made which appeal to a p r i o r i reasoning. The p i t f a l l s and li m i t a t i o n s of the study have been c a r e f u l l y lineated by Young. The information used i s found on page ninety-six of his study. The truck size and cost w i l l be l i s t e d under the assumptions of each d i f f e r e n t configura-t i o n . JYoung, ££. c i t . 127 D i s t a n c e . The use o f the above men t i oned study-r e q u i r e s two p a r a m e t e r s , namely t r u c k s i z e and d i s t a n c e t o t he e l e v a t o r . The f i r s t may be assumed i n t h i s m o d e l , an a s s u m p t i o n w h i c h can be v a r i e d , t h a t i s , a d e s i g n v a r i a b l e . The s e c o n d , d i s t a n c e , i s a pa rame te r t h a t changes w i t h d i f f e r e n t e l e v a t o r c o n f i g u r a t i o n s . The p r o b l e m o f d e t e r m i n i n g d i s t a n c e c a u s e s c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s t r e s s as many a s s u m p t i o n s must be made w h i c h a r e no t w h o l l y r e a l i s t i c . The f i r s t a s s u m p t i o n i s t h a t a v e r a g e d i s t a n c e w i l l s e r v e as an a p p r o x i m a t i o n f o r d i s t a n c e , and t h a t a m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a w i l l p r o v i d e the n e c e s s a r y ave rage d i s t a n c e . The m a t h e m a t i c a l methods i n v o l v e f u r t h e r a s s u m p t i o n s ( 1 ) t h a t t h e s u p p l y a r e a s has a r e c t a n g u l a r r o a d g r i d r e q u i r i n g t h a t s u c h r o a d s do e x i s t and a re homogeneous, and ( 2 ) t h a t t he s u p p l y a r e a has u n i f o r m d e n s i t y w i t h r e s p e c t t o c r o p s . V a r i o u s shapes o f t he s u p p l y a r e a can be v i s u a l i z e d such as a c i r c l e 2 ^ , d i a m o n d 2 - * , e l o n g a t e d h e x a g o n ^ , o r r e c t a n g l e . The r e c t a n g l e was c h o s e n as i t i s s i m p l e and p r o v i d e s a shape w h i c h i s l o g i c a l i n t he r e g i o n where r a i l r o a d s r u n 2 4 B . C . F r e n c h , "Some C o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n E s t i m a t i n g Assemb ly Cos t F u n c t i o n s f o r A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o c e s s i n g O p e r a t i o n s " , J o u r n a l o f Farm E c o n o m i c s . X L I I : 4 (November, i 9 6 0 ) , p . 7 7 1 . 2 5 I b i d . , p . 7 7 2 . 26 B . G . L a g a c e , Some I m p l i c a t i o n s o f R a i l w a y B r a n c h L i n e Abandonment f o r L o c a t i o n and C a p a c i t y o f C o u n t r y E l e v a -t o r s i n W e s t e r n Canada ( U n p u b l i s h e d M a s t e r ' s T h e s i s , The U n i v e r s i t y o f M a n i t o b a , Winn ipeg ; , March 1 9 6 3 ) , p p . 1 6 - 2 1 . 128 i n east-west d i r e c t i o n s considerable distances apart, and the topography does not permit the hexagonal shape t o e x i s t as i t does elsewhere. The c a l c u l a t i o n of average distance t r a v e l l e d leads t o the formula: average distance equals the sum of two sides d i v i d e d by f o u r , (See Appendix I I Table XCI f o r d e r i v a t i o n ) . The minimum distance between e l e v a t o r points was determined, shown i n Table XXV, and used as the radius to b r i n g each e l e v a t o r point t o a common base l i n e , that i s , a l l e l e v a t o r points l i e on the same east-west l i n e . The values were d i v i d e d by two, p r o v i d i n g the midpoint be-tween the e l e v a t o r s , shown i n Table XXVI, The value ob-ta i n e d by adding the mileage between an e l e v a t o r point and i t s midpoints, l y i n g t o the east and west, provide the east-west dimension of the h y p o t h e t i c a l r e c t a n g l e . The remain-i n g side i s found by d i v i d i n g the land area, t h a t i s the number of s e c t i o n s , by the east-west dimension obtained above. The east-west mileages f o r Grande P r a i r i e and Hythe were s l i g h t l y extended. Both are large points located at ends of base l i n e , and distances were not c l e a r l y estab-l i s h e d . The adjustment reduces the north-south distance of the r e s p e c t i v e r e c t a n g l e s , w i t h the major change being made f o r Grande P r a i r i e . The dimensions and average d i s -tances are shown i n Table XXVII, Knowledge of only the t o t a l acreages as s p e c i f i e d by the permit books at each p o i n t , does not provide the in f o r m a t i o n regarding the exact l o c a t i o n of farmers, so 1 2 9 TABLE XXV MINIMUM DISTANCE BETWEEN' DELIVERY POINTS IN M I L E S * B e a v e r -D imsda le Wembley H u a l l e n l odge Hythe Grande P r a i r i e 8 0 2 5 Dimsda le 6 , 5 0 Wembley 5 « 5 0 H u a l l e n 6 . 5 0 B e a v e r l o d g e 9 « 7 5 a S o u r c e s Depar tment Lands and F o r e s t s , A l b e r t a ( A e r i a l S u r v e y S e c t i o n , T e c h n i c a l D i v i s i o n , Edmonton, 1 9 6 2 ) , S h e e t s S 3 m s 8 3 m, 8 3 m. 2 3 5 TABLE XXVI MIDPOINT DISTANCE B E W E E N DELIVERY POINTS IN M I L E S 3 B e a v e r -D imsda le Wembley H u a l l e n l o d g e Hythe Grande P r a i r i e 4 . 1 3 Dimsda le 3.25 Wembley 3.25 2.75 H u a l l e n 2.75 3 . 2 5 B e a v e r l o d g e 3=25 4.SS a S o u r c e : T a b l e X X V . TABLE X X V I I DIMENSIONS OF RECTANGLE AND AVERAGE DISTANCE BY DELIVERY POINT 1 9 6 5 a M i d p o i n t M i d p o i n t Number D i s t a n c e D i s t a n c e o f West E a s t sq„mio E a s t -West ^ D i s t a n c e N o r t h -S o u t h D i s t a n c e 0 A v e r a g e ^ D i s t a n c e Grande P r a i r i e 4.13 Dimsda le 3«25 Wembley 2.75 H u a l l e n 3.25 B e a v e r l o d g e 4.88 Hythe 5.12 5 . 8 7 e 400.99 10.00 40.10 12.53 4.13 60.43 7.38 8.19 3.89 3o25 126.38 6.00 21.06 6.77 2.75 42.25 6.00 7.04 3.26 3o25 281.43 8 . 1 3 3 4 . 6 2 10.69 4. S 3 273.81 10.00 27.38 9.35 S o u r c e : Tab le XXVI and A p p e n d i x I I Tab le L X X V I , b S u m o f M i d p o i n t D i s t a n c e West and M i d p o i n t D i s t a n c e E a s t . c Number o f Square M i l e s d i v i d e d by E a s t - W e s t d i s t a n c e . ^ E a s t - W e s t d i s t a n c e p l u s N o r t h - S o u t h d i s t a n c e d i v i d e d by f o u r , g A d j u s t e d , o 131 t h a t t he two a d j u s t m e n t s a r e minor. , Each e l e v a t o r p o i n t was t h e n l o c a t e d a t the g e o m e t r i c a l c e n t r e o f i t s r e s p e c t i v e r e c t a n g l e f o r s i m p l i c i t y . . The d i m e n s i o n s o f e a c h r e c t a n g l e f o r each p o i n t a re shown i n F i g u r e 5 . The method i s no t c o m p l e t e l y s a t i s f a c t o r y as the a s s u m p t i o n s a r e r e s t r i c t i v e . Some of the more o b v i o u s d i f f i -c u l t i e s a r e n o n e x i s t e n c e o f some r o a d s , c u l t i v a t e d a c r e a g e may be c o n c e n t r a t e d n e a r e l e v a t o r p o i n t s , and minimum d i s -t a n c e may no t be the o n l y f a c t o r i n f l u e n c i n g f a r m e r s t o d e l i v e r g r a i n t o a p a r t i c u l a r p o i n t . Fa rmers may change d e -l i v e r y p o i n t s y e a r l y , b a s i n g t h e i r d e c i s i o n on f a c t o r s o t h e r 27 t h a n minimum d i s t a n c e , The d e s i r e d d i s t a n c e wou ld be 28 t h e sum o f t h e a c t u a l d i s t a n c e s t r a v e l l e d by f a r m e r s A l t h o u g h t h i s method i s p o s s i b l e , i t wou ld be e x p e n s i v e and pe rhaps no t be u s e f u l f o r p r e d i c t i o n s . A n o t h e r g e n e r a l method c o n s i d e r e d was t o use c o o r d i n a t e p o i n t s f o r e a c h square m i l e o f l a n d , w h i c h r e q u i r e d t h e knowledge o f t h e amount o f g r a i n h a u l e d f r o m e a c h p a r t i c u l a r p i e c e o f l a n d , and sum the d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d by e a c h f a r m e r . However , d a t a was no t a v a i l a b l e . Any measurement makes v a r i o u s a s s u m p t i o n s , and v a r i a b l e s s u c h as r o a d c o n d i t i o n s and t ime of h a u l i n g may no t be e a s i l y i n c o r p o r a t e d bu t y e t be i m p o r t a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g 27 E . B . R i o r d o n , S p a t i a l C o m p e t i t i o n and D i v i s i o n o f G r a i n R e -c e i p t s Between C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r P o i n t s ( U n p u b l i s h e d M a s t e r ' s T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f M a n i t o b a , F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 5 ) . 28 R . T . M i l l e r , D. Z a s a d a , and J . W . Channon , ''The Economic Base o f C e n t r a l B u t t e G r a i n - G r o w i n g R e g i o n o f S o u t h - C e n t r a l S a s k a t c h e w a n " , C a n a d i a n Farm E c o n o m i c s , I I 6 ( F e b r u a r y , 1 9 6 8 ) . p p . 2 2 - 2 3 . < , 0 . 0 ->• 6 , GO* 34.6 7.04 5 k _ .7.3 S 5 8.19 Wembley B e a v e r l o d g e H u a l l e n Dimsdale Grange P r a i r i e H y p o t h e t i c a l B o u n d a r i e s o f the s i x a r e a s f o r u*e i n th* s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . ( N o t e : a l l f i g u r e s i n m i l e s ) . 133 distanceo Thus any method has i t s l i m i t a t i o n s and advan-tages, depending upon the problem to be examined. The movement of grain from farm to elevator i s a complex matter, but a very important one. This study uses two variables, truck capacity and average distance, to ob-t a i n the cost of hauling grain by farm truck to the elva-t o r . The truck capacity i s an unknown parameter and i s set by assumption. The costs of farm trucks have.been examined i n a study at the University of Manitoba 2^. The average distances are calculated by a very simple formula which i s useful i n that i t uses a minimum of information and may predict as well as other techniques. 29 Young, l o c . cit« 1 3 4 V . RAIL SHIPMENTS The s i m u l a t i o n mode l i n v o l v e s t he movement o f g r a i n t h r o u g h t he s y s t e m . G e n e r a l l y s t he g r a i n i s s h i p p e d f rom e l e v a t o r p o i n t s by r a i l . Movement o f g r a i n by t r u c k f r om e l e v a t o r p o i n t s i s c o n s i d e r e d n e g l i g i b l e and the f o c u s i s upon r a i l r o a d box c a r s . The movement o f box c a r s t o e l e v a -t o r p o i n t s i s a complex m a t t e r , w i t h s e v e r a l i n f l u e n c e s a c t i n g s i m u l t a n e o u s l y , making i t b o t h d i f f i c u l t t o u n d e r -s t a n d box c a r movement and d i f f i c u l t t o d e r i v e a s i m u l a t o r s e r i e s o f n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s . The p r o b l e m i s t o f i n d a s e r i e s o f n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s f o r e a c h week t h r o u g h o u t t h e c r o p y e a r f o r each e l e v a t o r p o i n t . The v a l u e s wou ld be used i n the mode l t o r e p r e s e n t the number o f b u s h e l s o f g r a i n moved by r a i l out o f the e l e v a t o r s y s t e m . I n o r d e r t o make the s i m u l a t i o n as r e a l i s t i c as p o s s i b l e , the v a l u e s s h o u l d e x h i b i t a s e a s o n a l p a t t e r n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f e a c h p o i n t , a d i m e n s i o n o r s i z e c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t he c r o p s i z e f o r t h e y e a r i n q u e s -t i o n , and a v a r i a n c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f the w e e k l y and y e a r -l y s h i p m e n t s f o r e a c h p o i n t . The o n l y d a t a t h a t was a v a i l a b l e p r o v i d e d w e e k l y s h i p m e n t s f r o m one e l e v a t o r company a t f i v e s t a t i o n s f o r t e n y e a r s . Such i n f o r m a t i o n i s no t s u f f i c i e n t f o r p r e c i s e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e pa rame te r s a b o v e . A s s u m p t i o n s were made i n o r d e r t o use t he a v a i l a b l e d a t a . The method i s o u t l i n e d b e l o w . 135 Method ( 1 ) £ s i k n / m f S i k m = ^ i m ( 2 ) is. / 1 0 = s m V ' L im' m (3) S m (Average E l e v a t o r R e c e i p t s ) ^ = R . mi (4) R m i ( C ) ( Y ) = R m i i = e l e v a t o r p o i n t i = 1 3 . . . s 5 m = week m = 1, » . . , 52 k = c r o p y e a r k = 1955~56 s . . 3 1964-65 Sj_ m = Ave rage p r o p o r t i o n o f c r o p s h i p p e d pe r week pe r p o i n t S m = Ave rage p r o p o r t i o n o f c r o p s h i p p e d p e r week f o r a l l p o i n t s combined Rmj_ = Ave rage r a i l sh ipmen t pe r week p e r p o i n t i n b u s h e l s C = Crop s i z e v a l u e (See c r o p p r o d u c t i o n ) Y = Y e a r l y exogenous v a l u e Rmj_ = R a i l sh ipment pe r week pe r p o i n t i n b u s h e l s f o r g i v e n ye The y e a r l y exogenous v a l u e was d e t e r m i n e d by f i n d i n g a f r e q u e n c y f u n c t i o n u s i n g t he y e a r l y r a i l s h i p m e n t s and y e a r l y e l e v a t o r r e c e i p t s f o r w e s t e r n Canada f o r yea rs 1950-51 t o 1 9 6 5 - 6 6 0 The method used was as f o l l o w s : (5) R a i l S h i p m e n t ^ - G r a i n R e c e i p t s ^ = D e v i a t i o n ^ (6) D e v i a t i o n s / R a i l Shipment^. = (7) ± Z k + a = ± Z k ( 0 ) (8) ± Z k ( 0 ) + 100o = Index (1) (9) D e r i v e f r e q u e n c y f u n c t i o n 136 k = Crop y e a r + Z k = r e l a t i v e d e v i a t i o n u s i n g r a i l sh ipmen ts as base a = c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r +Z k(0) = r e l a t i v e d e v i a t i o n s w i t h a mean of 0. I n d e x ( l ) = Index o f number w i t h a mean o f one w h i c h i n d i -c a t e s v a l u e s g r e a t e r t h a n o r l e s s t h a n t he ave rage s h i p m e n t . The f i r s t s t e p ( e q u a t i o n 1) d e f i n e d f o r each p o i n t the w e e k l y p r o p o r t i o n o r p e r c e n t a g e o f g r a i n s h i p p e d as an a v e r a g e f o r t he t e n y e a r s , A w e e k l y ave rage f o r the com-b i n e d e l e v a t o r p o i n t s was o b t a i n e d by u s i n g e q u a t i o n 2 as shown i n Tab le X X V I I I , The t h i r d e q u a t i o n was used t o c o n -v e r t w e e k l y p r o p o r t i o n s i n t o b u s h e l s pe r week f o r e a c h e l e v a t o r p o i n t . E q u a t i o n 4 was used t o i n c r e a s e o r d e -c r e a s e w e e k l y sh ipmen t t h r o u g h m u l t i p l i c a t i o n by a v a l u e t o i n d i c a t e an exogenous v a r i a b l e r e f l e c t i n g the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f box c a r s . The d e r i v a t i o n o f t he exogenous v a l u e s a re shown i n e q u a t i o n s 5 t o 9° The d e v i a t i o n s were d i v i d e d by r a i l s h i p m e n t s ( e q u a t i o n 6) t o i n d i c a t e t he r e l a t i v e d e v i a -t i o n s . Thus t h e d e v i a t i o n s a re e x p r e s s e d i n te rms o f b u s h e l s h i p m e n t s t o d i s a s s o c i a t e t he v a l u e s f r om e l e v a t o r r e c e i p t s . E q u a t i o n s 7 t o 9 were used t o c o n v e r t t he d e v i a t i o n s t o an e x p e c t e d v a l u e o f z e r o , and t h e n t o an i n d e x w i t h a mean o f o n e . T h i s i n d e x i s t h e n used t o p r o v i d e a f r e q u e n c y f u n c t i o n f o r t h e Monte C a r l o t e c h n i q u e s as shown i n Tab le X X I X . S e a s o n a l sh ipmen t p a t t e r n s were a p p r o x i m a t e d by 1 3 7 TABLE X X V I I I PROPORTION OF ANNUAL SHIPMENTS MADE EACH WEEK FOR ONE ELEVATOR COMPANY* Week b P r o p o r t i o n Week P r o p o r t i o n 1 . 0 2 2 27 . 0 2 9 2 . 0 1 9 28 . 0 1 2 3 . 0 1 4 29 . 0 1 7 4 . 0 1 0 3 0 . 018 5 .024 3 1 . 0 1 5 6 . 0 1 5 3 2 . 0 2 6 7 . 0 1 3 3 3 . 0 1 5 8 . 0 2 9 3 4 . 0 1 8 9 . 0 2 2 3 5 . 0 1 4 1 0 . 0 2 5 3 6 . 0 2 0 1 1 . 0 3 0 3 7 . 0 1 6 1 2 . 0 2 5 3 8 . 0 1 8 1 3 . 0 2 9 3 9 . 0 1 3 1 4 . 0 2 5 4 0 . 0 1 5 1 5 . 0 2 2 4 1 . 0 1 9 1 6 . 0 2 6 4 2 . 0 1 5 1 7 . 024 4 3 . 0 1 8 18 . 0 1 9 4 4 . 0 1 4 1 9 . 0 2 6 4 5 . 0 1 9 2 0 . 0 1 6 4 6 . 0 1 8 2 1 . 0 1 3 4 7 . 0 1 1 2 2 . 0 3 1 4 8 . 0 1 4 2 3 . 0 2 5 4 9 . 0 1 0 24 . 0 2 2 5 0 . 0 9 0 2 5 , 028 5 1 . 0 1 5 2 6 , 0 2 3 5 2 . 0 1 5 S o u r c e : I n d i v i d u a l e l e v a t o r company d a t a p r o v i d e d by a c o n f i d e n t i a l s o u r c e and e q u a t i o n s 1 , 2 , 3 S and 4 . eek one b e g i n s Augus t 1 and week f i f t y - t w o ends J u l y 3 1 . 1 3 8 TABLE XXIX RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF EXOGENOUS RAIL SHIPMENTS FROM AN EXPECTED VALUE OF ONE a C l a s s W i d t h M i d p o i n t F r e q u e n c y R e l a t i v e F r e q u e n c y . 7 5 5 - . 8 5 5 . 3 0 5 1 . 0 6 2 5 . 8 5 5 - . 9 5 5 . 9 0 5 2 . 1 2 5 . 9 5 5 - 1 . 0 5 5 1 . 0 5 3 . 5 0 0 1 . 0 5 5 - 1 . 1 5 5 1 . 1 5 5 4 . 2 5 0 1 . 1 5 5 - 1 . 2 5 5 1 . 2 0 5 1 . 0 6 2 5 S o u r c e : B o a r d o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s f o r C a n a d a . A n n u a l  R e p o r t o f t h e B o a r d o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s f o r C a n a d a . ( O t t a w a : Q u e e n ' s P r i n t e r and C o n t r o l l e r o f S t a t i o n e r y , 1 9 5 1 - 1 9 6 6 ) and E q u a t i o n s 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , and 9 . 139 u s i n g the d a t a and m a n i p u l a t i n g as i n d i c a t e d a b o v e . A l -t hough a d i s t i n c t p a t t e r n was d e s i r a b l e f o r e a c h p o i n t , a common p a t t e r n was used f o r a l l s i x p o i n t s * O b v i o u s l y , t he s h i p m e n t s f r o m one e l e v a t o r company f o r one y e a r was no t s u f f i c i e n t t o i d e n t i f y a l l u n d e r l y i n g p a r a m e t e r s . Such v a r i a b l e s as marke t s h a r e , head o f f i c e d e c i s i o n s , and t y p e s o f g r a i n h a n d l e d i n f l u e n c e d the a v a i l a b l e d a t a . The a v e r -a g i n g p r o c e s s may y i e l d an a p p r o p r i a t e f o r e c a s t . I t i s assumed t h a t a s e a s o n a l p a t t e r n i n f a c t e x i s t s , whereas t h e sh ipmen ts may be a random p r o c e s s i n t he r e a l w o r l d . The s i x e l e v a t o r p o i n t s c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y l i e on the same r a i l l i n e , and i t seemed p l a u s i b l e t h a t t h e r a i l r o a d company wou ld a t t e m p t t o s u p p l y box c a r s t o t he i n d i v i d u a l p o i n t s a t one t i m e , r a t h e r t h a n s u p p l y i n g c a r s t o e a c h p o i n t a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s . The e l e v a t o r com-p a n i e s p r o b a b l y a t tempt t o d i s t r i b u t e s h i p p i n g o r d e r s t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e e l e v a t o r s a t a l l p o i n t s t o meet c o m p e t i -t i o n . The quo ta s y s t e m wou ld a l s o be u s e d i n s u c h a way as t o e q u a l i z e quo tas a t t h e s e s i x s t a t i o n s . A l t h o u g h f a r m e r d e l i v e r i e s t o the e l e v a t o r companies and p o i n t s were no t known, i t appea red l i k e l y t h a t r e c e i p t s and s t o c k s o f g r a i n by v a r i e t y and g rade wou ld be s i m i l a r i n t he s i x p o i n t s . Of c o u r s e , t h e s e c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s a r e o n l y a. p r i o r i p o s s i b i l i t i e s , and t h e r e f o r e , a re assumed t o be t r u e u n t i l e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e becomes a v a i l a b l e t o p rove them f a l s e . The r a i l sh i pmen ts were equa ted t o g r a i n r e c e i p t s . 140 The f i r s t problem was to determine the d i r e c t i o n of the causal relationship„ It was assumed i n the model that crop production and hence elevator receipts determined the size of shipments. This assumption seemed appropriate, at least over a period of several years. The c o r r e l a t i o n co-e f f i c i e n t s between t o t a l yearly shipments at a point and the receipts at a point were positive although not always s i g n i f i c a n t l y nonzero as shown i n Table XXX, With t h i s limited information, i t was assumed that the method would adequately predict. However, i t was not appropriate to assume that shipments would exactly equal grain receipts at an elevator point. It was thought that variables exogenous to crop production at elevator points ex i s t and a f f e c t the size of shipments. Information re-garding t o t a l grain shipments and t o t a l elevator receipts was available, and was used as mentioned i n Equations 5 to 9 and Table XXVIII, The d i s t r i b u t i o n of r a i l shipments with a mean of one was an attempt to indicate variables such as the a v a i l a b i l i t y of box cars and the export market, A series of values have been constructed to represent seasonal patterns of r a i l shipments, the amount of grain produced, and random fluctuations of yearly shipments. Whether or not these values are representative of h i s t o r i c experience was not of i n t e r e s t . The study required only that the grain move out of the elevator i n such a manner as to allow the elevator points to receive h i s t o r i c average grain receipts over a period of n years. TABLE XXX 141 MEANS, STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS OF ANNUAL RECEIPTS BY STATION AND SHIPMENTS FOR ONE ELEVATOR COMPANY 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 TO 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 & Station Grande P r a i r i e Elevator Co. Dimsdale Elevator Co. Wembley-Elevator Co. Beaverlodge Elevator Co. Hythe Elevator Co. Mean (Bushels) 8 5 1 , 1 0 0 2 7 0 , 8 0 0 2 0 8 , 8 0 0 8 8 , 7 1 0 4 4 1 , 8 0 0 1 4 1 , 8 0 0 5 2 8 , 9 0 0 1 0 1 , 5 0 0 6 0 9 , 0 0 0 1 9 9 , 6 0 0 Standard Deviation (Bushels) 2 6 1 , 9 0 0 7 3 , 7 3 0 6 4 , 7 7 0 2 6 , 5 2 0 9 9 , 9 4 0 4 9,650 1 5 4 , 1 0 0 7 2 , 6 1 0 1 6 7 , 7 0 0 6 7 , 9 4 0 Correlation Co e f f i c i e n t s .8556* .7320** .2953 .6666** . 3 7 3 1 Source: Data on elevator points provided by Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Country Elevator  Receipts at Individual P r a i r i e Points Crop Years 1955-56 to  1 9 6 4 - 6 5 ~ ( O t t a w a : Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1 9 5 6 to 1 9 6 5 ) . Individual elevator company data provided by a c o n f i d e n t i a l source. "'Significant at . 0 1 . '^Significant at . 0 5 . 142 V I . HANDLING AND STORAGE COSTS IN COUNTRY ELEVATORS An e s t i m a t i o n o f the c o s t s o f h a n d l i n g and s t o r i n g g r a i n a t an e l e v a t o r was r e q u i r e d t o d e t e r m i n e t he c o s t s o f g r a i n a s s e m b l y . Two m u l t i p l e l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n s were d e t e r -mined f o r use i n t h i s s t u d y and use was made o f an e q u a t i o n 30 f r o m a M a n i t o b a s t u d y . The p r o b l e m i n u s i n g t h e s e e q u a -t i o n s was t h a t the c o s t o f h a n d l i n g and s t o r a g e was a g g r e -g a t e d , r a t h e r t h a n s e p a r a t e d . The p r e s e n t l o c a t i o n and c a p a c i t y of. e l e v a t o r s have been l a r g e l y i n h e r i t e d f r om the p a s t . The economic r a t i o n a l e i n v o l v e d i n t he h i s t o r i c d e v e l o p m e n t , and i n t he c u r r e n t o p e r a t i o n o f the e l e v a t o r s y s t e m r e m a i n s c o m p l i c a t e d , and l a r g e l y u n r e s o l v e d , l e a v i n g s e v e r a l unanswered q u e s t i o n s . A v e r y b r i e f e x a m i n a t i o n o f the s y s t e m i s made, f o l l o w e d by an e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f e l e v a t o r c o s t s i n A l b e r t a . V i e w p o i n t . The g r a i n m a r k e t i n g sys tem i n Canada i s s u f f i c i e n t l y c o m p l i c a t e d t h a t the v i e w p o i n t t a k e n by the r e s e a r c h e r must be c l e a r l y d e f i n e d . The v i e w p o i n t o f an i n d i v i d u a l a s s e s s i n g t he p o s i t i v e and n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s o f a g i v e n s y s t e m may be d i f f e r e n t f r o m o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l s o r f r o m the community as a w h o l e . The o u t l o o k o f a f i r m c o u l d d i f f e r f r o m t h a t o f a p r o v i n c i a l o r f e d e r a l a u t h o r i t y . S i m i l a r l y the f a r m e r ' s v i e w p o i n t i s p r o b a b l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m 30 D. Zasada and 0m P. T a n g r i , An A n a l y s i s o f F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g  the Cos t o f H a n d l i n g and S t o r i n g G r a i n i n M a n i t o b a C o u n t r y  E l e v a t o r s ( U n i v e r s i t y o f M a n i t o b a , Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , R e s e a r c h Repo r t No . 1 1 , W i n n i p e g ; J u l y , 1 9 6 7 ) . 143 t h a t o f t he C a n a d i a n "Wheat B o a r d . A n e g a t i v e a s p e c t o f t h e s y s t e m t o f a r m e r s c o u l d w e l l be o f b e n e f i t t o t he g r a i n m a r k e t -i n g sys tem o r t o the n a t i o n . The v i e w p o i n t t a k e n i n t h i s s e c t i o n i s u s u a l l y t h a t o f a p r o d u c e r s and l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n t o t he s y s t e m as a w h o l e , o r t o the n a t i o n a l economy i n t he sense o f c o o p e r a t i o n among the f i r m s i n the s y s t e m , o r a d v a n t a g e s o r d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f t he p r e s e n t s y s t e m t o the C a n a d i a n Wheat Board and r a i l w a y s . Growth and Development o f C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r s . The g r a i n m a r k e t i n g sys tem i n W e s t e r n Canada h a n d l e s the g r a i n as a b u l k commodi ty . T h i s a p p r o a c h t o h a n d l i n g was a bor rowed A m e r i c a n i n n o v a t i o n w h i c h c o n t r i b u t e d t o a low c o s t method o f h a n d l i n g a l a r g e q u a n t i t y o f g r a i n , an i m p o r t a n t i n -f l u e n c e i n the deve lopment o f c o m m e r c i a l a g r i c u l t u r e i n 31 W e s t e r n Canada . The b a s i c t e c h n i q u e s r e m a i n t he same a l -t hough t e c h n i c a l i n n o v a t i o n s have been made, m a i n t a i n i n g 32 C a n a d a ' s c o m p a r a t i v e advan tage i n g r a i n p r o d u c t i o n The g rowth i n numbers of e l e v a t o r s and p o i n t s was i n t e g r a l l y l i n k e d w i t h the g row th of o p e r a t i n g t r a c k m i l e a g e o f the r a i l r o a d s . The e x p a n s i o n o f e l e v a t o r p o i n t s r e a c h e d a peak i n the 1930 !s o r e a r l y 1940's. S i m i l a r l y the number o f e l e v a t o r s i n c r e a s e d u n t i l 1933. But t he s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y i s s t i l l i n c r e a s i n g even though the number o f d e l i v e r y p o i n t s 3 l D . A . Mac G i b b o n , Thp Canarlian G r a i n Trade ( T o r o n t o , The Mac-M i l l a n C o . o f Canada L t d . , 1932), pp.85-86; A .W. Wood, ' • ' T e c h n o l o g i c a l Changes i n P r o c e s s i n g , M a r k e t i n g and D i s t r i b u -t i o n and t h e i r Impact on C a n a d i a n A g r i c u l t u r e " , Canadi an  J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics ( V o l . X , N o . 1, 1962) p.59. J Wood, l o c , c i t , 144 and number o f e l e v a t o r s a re d e c r e a s i n g , , The g rowth o f s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y was p a r a l l e l t o the number o f e l e v a t o r s u n t i l 1 9 4 0 , when t e m p o r a r y annexes were b u i l t „ The l a r g e c a r r y o v e r o f g r a i n i n the 1 9 5 0 ' s and an Income Tax R e g u l a -t i o n p r o v i d i n g a c c e l e r a t e d d e p r e c i a t i o n on s t o r a g e s p a c e , s p u r r e d a r a p i d g row th o f s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y . S t o r a g e c a p a c i t y has i n c r e a s e d s t e a d i l y , r e s u l t i n g i n a t o t a l c a p a c i t y o f 386 m i l l i o n b u s h e l s , McLeod has o b s e r v e d ; I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o no te t h a t i n 1923-24 a wheat c r o p o f 450 m i l l i o n b u s h e l s was h a n d l e d t h r o u g h e l e v a t o r s h a v i n g t o t a l s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y of l e s s t h a n 140 m i l l i o n b u s h e l s , y e t i n 1959 - 6 0 a c r o p o f s i m i l a r s i z e was h a n d l e d t h r o u g h an e l e v a t o r s ys tem w i t h a t o t a l s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y of n e a r l y 400 m i l l i o n b u s h e l s .33 The e l e v a t o r s have been g e o g r a p h i c a l l y l o c a t e d so t h a t t he e s t i m a t e d ave rage l e n g t h of f a r m h a u l i s , r e s p e c -t i v e l y , 5 3/4, 6, and 7 1/4 m i l e s i n M a n i t o b a , S a s k a t c h e w a n , 3 4 and A l b e r t a ( e x c l u d i n g the Peace R i v e r r e g i o n ) . H i s t o r y can be adduced t o e x p l a i n the l o c a t i o n s by the d i s t a n c e s a ho rse and wagon c o u l d t r a v e l i n a d a y . I t i s a l s o a rgued t h a t the f r e i g h t r a t e s t r u c t u r e p r o v i d e d an i n c e n t i v e f o r f i r m s t o b u i l d as many e l e v a t o r s i n e a c h zone as p o s s i b l e , 35 c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t he s m a l l and numerous f i r m s . The com-p e t i t i v e a s p e c t o f the e l e v a t o r b u s i n e s s has been men t i oned 3 3 A „ D . M c L e o d , " H a n d l i n g G r a i n i n C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r s " , P r o -c e e d i n g s o f t he G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Workshop ( M i n a k i t S e p t . 6-8, 1 9 6 7 ) , p .43. 3 ^ J . W . Channon , Towards a R e v i t a l i z e d Economy i n Wes te rn Canada ( u n p u b l i s h e d paper p r e s e n t e d t o S a s k a t c h e w a n B r a n c h o f t he C a n a d i a n A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics S o c i e t y , R e g i n a , F e b . 16, 1 9 6 8 ) , p.5o - ^ I b i d o o p.6. 145 as an i n f l u e n c e i n m a i n t a i n i n g t he c u r r e n t c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f e l e v a t o r s , as a l l companies c o n t i n u e t o o p e r a t e u n e c o n o m i c a l p l a n t s - ^ . The e l e v a t o r i n d u s t r y i s p r i m a r i l y engaged i n t h e h a n d l i n g and s t o r i n g of g r a i n . The e x t e n s i v e n e s s and i m p o r -t a n c e o f s i d e l i n e a c t i v i t i e s have no t been i n v e s t i g a t e d . The f u n c t i o n as a s u p p l i e r o f i n p u t s t o p r i m a r y a g r i c u l t u r e may o n l y be a method o f s p r e a d i n g o v e r h e a d , p r i m a r i l y l a b o u r , bu t i t c o u l d become an i n t e g r a l and i m p o r t a n t p a r t of t h e i n d u s t r y . The h a n d l i n g and s t o r a g e of g r a i n a re the b a s i c s e r v i c e s o f f e r e d by c o m m e r c i a l e l e v a t o r s . I f t he c o s t s o f h a n d l i n g and s t o r a g e a r e s e p a r a b l e , as r e g u l a t i o n s i m p l y , t h e r e i s l i t t l e e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s d e s c r i b i n g t he d i m e n s i o n s o f t h e s e c o s t s . R a t i o n a l f o r m u l a t i o n o f economic r e g u l a -t i o n s r e q u i r e s knowledge o f t h e s e c o s t s . Members o f the i n d u s t r y concede t h a t c u r r e n t p r i c e s f o r t h e s e s e r v i c e s a r e no t i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h c o s t s , t h a t i s , h a n d l i n g c o s t s a re g r e a t e r w h i l e s t o r a g e c o s t s a r e l o w e r t h a n r e g u l a t e d c h a r g e s , r e s u l t i n g i n an emphas is b e i n g p l a c e d on c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y - ^ ? . E l e v a t o r companies a c t as a g e n t s f o r t he C a n a d i a n Wheat B o a r d . Through the sys tem of p o o l i n g g r a i n , where p r i c e r e -mains c o n s t a n t , t he f a r m e r s i n c e n t i v e t o s t o r e g r a i n i s d e s t r o y e d , a l t h o u g h the d e l i v e r y quo ta p r e v e n t s the f a r m e r s 3 6 M c L e o d , o p . c i t . , p.45. 37 I b i d . . p.54, 146 38 f r o m d e l i v e r i n g a l l g r a i n a t h a r v e s t „ The f a r m e r i s f o r c e d t o b u i l d f a r m s t o r a g e , a l t h o u g h t h e r e i s no r e a s o n why the p r e s e n t e l e v a t o r s y s t e m , w i t h or w i t h o u t e x p a n s i o n , c o u l d no t s t o r e g r a i n on b e h a l f o f t h e p r o d u c e r on a l a r g e s c a l e b a s i s , The a d v a n t a g e s s t a t e d f o r f a r m s t o r a g e , how-e v e r , may e x p l a i n why e l e v a t o r s do no t e x p r e s s l y p r o v i d e t h i s s e r v i c e o r f a r m e r s do no t use the s e r v i c e . F i n d i n g o p t i m a l l o c a t i o n o f any p r o p o s e d e l e v a t o r r e q u i r e s a g r e a t d e a l o f i n f o r m a t i o n . E x c l u d e a l l d e t e r -m i n a n t s o t h e r t h a n t h a t of p r e d i c t i n g t h e amount o f g r a i n t o be h a n d l e d and s t o r e d , t h e r e wou ld r e m a i n a complex and d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s . Some of the more i m p o r t a n t d a t a r e -q u i r e d f o r a n a l y s i s o f o p t i m a l l o c a t i o n are p r o v i d e d i n the 39 l i s t b e l o w , (1) G r a i n P r o d u c t i o n (a) T rends i n y e a r l y p r o d u c t i o n o f the v a r i o u s g r a i n s , t o p r o v i d e a g u i d e t o f u t u r e p r o d u c t i o n , (2) D i s p o s i t i o n o f G r a i n P roduced (a) Seed r e q u i r e m e n t s (b) Feed (1) L i v e s t o c k p r o d u c t i o n and t r e n d s (2) Feed r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r the l i v e s t o c k p roduced 3 8 Wood, o p , c i t , , p . 5 6 , 39 ^ 7 P , S , R i c h e y and T , D , J o h n s o n , F a c t o r s t.o ifi. C o n s i d e r e d i n L o c a t i n g . P l a n n i n g . and O p e r a t i n g C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r s . P r o d u c -t i o n and M a r k e t i n g A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i t e d S t a t e s Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r e , M a r k e t i n g R e s e a r c h Repo r t No . 23 (Wash ing ton , U . S , Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , J u n e , 1 9 5 2 ) , p p . 6 7 - 6 8 , ( c ) Amounts and k i n d s o f g r a i n s o l d f r o m the f a r m (1) t o e l e v a t o r s (2) t o seed and f e e d merchan ts (3) t o l o c a l g r a i n p r o c e s s o r s (4) t o t r u c k e r s or f i r m s o u t s i d e the a r e a (5) t o o t h e r f a r m e r s i n t he area (3) M a r k e t i n g F a c i l i t i e s and S t r u c t u r e s (a) Amounts and K i n d s o f S t o r a g e a v a i l a b l e (1) p r i v a t e and p u b l i c s t o r a g e c a p a c i t i e s (2) marke t movement c a p a c i t y o f e x i s t i n g g r a i n h a n d l e r s (b) H a n d l i n g p r a c t i c e s f o r g r a i n c u r r e n t l y used (4) G r a i n Impor ts (5) G r a i n p r i c e s and marg ins p r e v a i l i n g i n the m a r k e t i n g and p r o c e s s i n g of g r a i n (6) S e a s o n a l and y e a r l y g r a i n p r i c e s t o f a r m e r s (7) S e a s o n a l g r a i n h a r v e s t i n g and movement of g r a i n f r o m f a r m and e l e v a t o r s (8) D e t e r i o r a t i o n o f g r a i n i n s t o r a g e These e i g h t d e t e r m i n a n t s wou ld be used t o e s t i m a t e the volume o f g r a i n t o be h a n d l e d and s t o r e d by the e l e v a t o r „ The l i s t o f d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s i s no t e x h a u s t i v e , as t he m a r k e t i n g o f g r a i n i s v e r y complex w i t h t he e s t i m a t i o n o f t he i n p u t ; t h a t i s , t he volume of g r a i n , b e i n g o n l y one p a r t o f t he knowledge w h i c h wou ld be u s e f u l i n t he d e c i s i o n mak ing m a t r i x o f e l e v a t o r l o c a t i o n , A more r e a l i s t i c v i e w -p o i n t m igh t be t h a t o f the t o t a l s y s t e m . Such a v i e w p o i n t 1 4 8 wou ld i n c l u d e t he v e r y i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ^ 0 . T h e c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s y s t e m as i t e x i s t s t o d a y s a p p e a r s t o be s u f f e r i n g a h i s t o r i c a l m i s a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s . I t appea rs c h a o t i c , bu t t he r i g i d i t y and p i e c e m e a l a p p r o a c h of t he who le g r a i n m a r k e t i n g s y s t e m t a k e e q u a l blame f o r the p r e s e n t d i f f i c u l t i e s . The e l e v a t o r compan ies p r o b a b l y d i d no t a c t i r r a t i o n a l l y i n t he c o n s t r u c t i o n of t he f a c i l i t i e s , bu t r a t h e r r esponded t o economic i n c e n t i v e s p r o v i d e d by the r e s t o f t h e economy. A l t h o u g h t h e r e may have been s u b o p -t i m i z a t i o n w i t h i n t he f i r m s and i n d u s t r y , t he i n d u s t r y i s s u b o p t i m a l f r o m the v iew o f the t o t a l s y s t e m , t h a t i s , e x -t e r n a l economies o f t he sys tem were no t c a p t u r e d o r d i s s i p a t e d by the i n d i v i d u a l s compos ing t he s y s t e m . The s i t u a t i o n o f t o d a y r e q u i r e s e x t e n s i v e c h a n g e , however i t must be r e c o g n i z e d t h a t an i d e a l c o n f i g u r a t i o n f o r c o n d i t i o n s of t o d a y may n o t b e o p t i m a l i n the f u t u r e . E s s e n t i a l l y , t he dynamic c o n d i -t i o n s i n v o l v e d makes f u t u r e p l a n n i n g d i f f i c u l t . P r o j e c t i o n o f f u t u r e g r a i n sh i pmen ts have been made, and the r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e an a p p r o x i m a t e i n c r e a s e o f 3 2 Z f l , 5 2 ^ 2 , o r 6 2 p e r c e n t ^ 3 ^ ° F o r a more d e t a i l e d s t a t e m e n t , see Wood, op_, c i t . . p .59; McLeod , o p . , c i t . , p . 5 5 - 5 7 ; E.W. T y r c h n i e w i c z and Om P. T a n g r i , " G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n C a n a d a : Some C r i t i c a l I s s u e s and I m p l i c a -t i o n s f o r R e s e a r c h " , C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics ( V o l , X V I , No , 1 , 1 9 6 8 ) ; W„ I s a r d , L o c a t i o n and Space-Economv ( C a m b r i d g e : The M . I . T . P r e s s , 1 9 5 6 ) , p p . 7 7 - 1 1 9 . ^ H . F . B j a r n a s o n , " M a r k e t i n g P o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r G r a i n " , P r o -c e e d i n g s o f the G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Workshop ( M i n a k i : S e p t , 6 - 8 , 1 9 6 7 ) , p , 2 5 . H . F , B j a r n a s o n , " P r o j e c t i n g C a n a d i a n G r a i n S h i p m e n t s " , C a n a d i a n  J o u r n a l o f A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics ( V o l . X V I , No , 1 , 1 9 6 8 ) . p . 7 7 . ^ I b i d . . p . 8 4 , 149 up t o a p o s s i b i l i t y o f 87 p e r c e n t i n g r a i n s h i p m e n t s by 1980 o v e r t he f i v e y e a r ave rage ( 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 6 6 ) o f 5 3 4 m i l l i o n b u s h e l s o N e v e r t h e l e s s t h e s e a re o n l y f o r e c a s t s , I f c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n i s n e c e s s a r y f o r economic g r o w t h , t h e n o b s o l e s -cence i s an i n t e g r a l f e a t u r e and i t becomes d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e i n d i m e n s i o n s of t i m e , m a g n i t u d e , and l o c a t i o n , t he c o r r e c t o r a p p r o x i m a t e changes r e q u i r e d by the commer-c i a l e l e v a t o r s y s t e m . R a p i d and r a d i c a l a d j u s t m e n t i s no t e a s y , and pe rhaps no t economic due t o t he l e n g t h o f l i f e o f e l e v a t o r s and r a i l w a y e q u i p m e n t . Cos t S t u d i e s i n the U . S . A , and C a n a d a . The economic a s p e c t s and r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s have been r e -p o r t e d i n s e v e r a l s t u d i e s i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s . A l t h o u g h the n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s a re no t t he p a r a m e t e r s f o r C a n a d a , t h e i r g e n e r a l r e s u l t s a r e p r o b a b l y a p p l i c a b l e . E f f i c i e n c y o f r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n i n v a r i o u s a c t i v i t i e s o f Kansas c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s was e v a l u a t e d t o i n d i c a t e the e f f e c t s o f p o l i c y on t h e i n d u s t r y ^ , A C o b b - D o u g l a s f u n c -t i o n was f i t t e d by l e a s t s q u a r e s t o p r o v i d e m a r g i n a l p r o d u c -t i v i t i e s , s u b s t i t u t i o n r a t e s , and r e t u r n s t o s c a l e i n a s t a t i c a n a l y s i s . M a r g i n a l p r o d u c t i v i t i e s i n d i c a t e d e f f i c i e n c y c o u l d be i n c r e a s e d by u s i n g a d d i t i o n a l o p e r a t i n g expenses and c a p i t a l s e r v i c e s . T r a n s f e r o f c u r r e n t r e s o u r c e s wou ld ^ P . L , K e l l y , J , H . McCoy, H. T u c k e r , and V , T , A l t a u , R e s o u r c e R e t u r n s and P r o d u c t i v i t y C o e f f i c i e n t s i n C e n t r a l and W e s t e r n  Kansas C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r s o f Modern C o n s t r u c t i o n , A g r i c u l -t u r a l E x p , S t a t , and Kansas S t a t e C o l l e g e o f A g r i c u l t u r e and A p p l i e d S c i e n c e , T e c h n i c a l B u l l e t i n No , 88 ( M a n h a t t a n , M a r c h , 1 9 5 7 ) . 150 no t i n c r e a s e e f f i c i e n c y . I n c r e a s i n g r e t u r n s t o s c a l e were e v i d e n t i n s i d e l i n e and s t o r a g e a c t i v i t i e s , whereas c o n s t a n t r e t u r n s t o s c a l e were i n e v i d e n c e i n m e r c h a n d i s i n g and t o t a l p l a n t f u n c t i o n s . S e v e r a l s t u d i e s have i n v o l v e d i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f c o s t -volume r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n c o u n t r y e l e v a t o r s t h r o u g h b u d g e t i n g a n a l y s i s o f e l e v a t o r s , o r by an e n g i n e e r i n g - e c o n o m i c a p p r o a c h t o budget c o s t s , A s t u d y i n the s p r i n g wheat a r e a o f the •U.SoAo i n v o l v e d e n g i n e e r i n g e s t i m a t e s and case s t u d i e s t o p r e s e n t a method o f a l l o c a t i n g c o s t s be tween e l e v a t o r f u n c t i o n s , and t o i n v e s t i g a t e c o s t - v o l u m e r e l a t i o n s h i p s among s i x e l e v a t o r mode ls r a n g i n g f r o m 100 t o 3&0 t h o u s a n d 45 b u s h e l s c a p a c i t y . The volume of g r a i n h a n d l e d and s t o r e d was v e r y i m p o r t a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g c o s t s pe r b u s h e l . Thus i n c o n s t r u c t i o n o f an e l e v a t o r , i t i s b e t t e r t o u n d e r e s -t i m a t e t h a n t o o v e r e s t i m a t e v o l u m e s , a l t h o u g h f l e x i b l e d e s i g n s h o u l d be i n c o r p o r a t e d t o a l l o w f o r e x p a n s i o n i f n e c e s s a r y . Equ ipmen t , howeve r , s h o u l d have a g r e a t e r c a p a c i t y t h a n r e q u i r e d i f i n c r e a s e d volume i n t he f u t u r e i s e n v i s a g e d . S i d e l i n e s were i m p o r t a n t i n p r e v e n t i n g u n d e r -employment of l a b o u r , and i n e s t a b l i s h i n g l o y a l c u s t o m e r s . T u r n o v e r i n r e l a t i o n t o c a p a c i t y and u t i l i z a t i o n o f c a p a c i t y have an i m p o r t a n t i n f l u e n c e on c o s t , as does c a p a c i t y i t s e l f . However t h e r e was much v a r i a t i o n i n c o s t s among v a r i o u s t y p e s o f s t r u c t u r e s , and c o s t - v o l u m e r e l a t i o n s h i p s change a t ^ F o P , Y a g e r , C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r s — C o s t - V o l u m e R e l a t i o n s i n the  S p r i n g Wheat B e l t . Farmer C o o p e r a t i v e S e r v i c e , U n i t e d S t a t e s Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r e , S e r v i c e Repo r t No , 63 (Wash-i n g t o n : S e p t , l9o3)<. 151 d i f f e r e n t r a t e s f o r d i f f e r e n t s t r u c t u r e s . However , s i z e a l o n e was an i m p o r t a n t cause o f v a r i a t i o n i n f i x e d c o s t . D i f f e r e n t s i z e s o f e l e v a t o r s e x h i b i t e d t h e i r own p a r t i c u l a r a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s , bu t s m a l l e r e l e v a t o r s had a h i g h e r s t o r a g e c o s t because o f a f i x e d c o s t pe r b u s h e l d i s -a d v a n t a g e . V a r i a b l e c o s t s were v e r y i m p o r t a n t i n i n f l u e n c -i n g h a n d l i n g c o s t s whereas f i x e d c o s t s r e p r e s e n t e d a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n i n c o s t s o f s t o r i n g . S t o r a g e c o s t s r a n g e d f r o m a low o f 9 ° 2 1 c e n t s p e r b u s h e l y e a r i n an e l e v a t o r w i t h a c a p a c i t y o f 155 t h o u s a n d b u s h e l s and s t o r i n g a volume of 8 5 , 2 5 0 b u s h e l s t o a h i g h o f 1 7 . 9 2 c e n t s pe r b u s h e l y e a r i n an e l e v a t o r u s i n g f i f t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f i t s r a t e d c a p a c i t y ( 100 ,000 b u s h e l s ) f o r s t o r a g e . However e l e v a t o r s w i t h c a p a c i t y o f 3&0 t h o u s a n d b u s h e l s had s t o r a g e c o s t s r a n g -i n g f r o m 9»98 t o 10 ,53 c e n t s pe r b u s h e l y e a r . M e r c h a n d i s i n g c o s t s p e r b u s h e l r e a c h e d a minimum ( 4 . 2 7 c e n t s ) f o r t h e 3 8 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l e l e v a t o r mode l when a volume of 1 ,400 t h o u -sand b u s h e l s were h a n d l e d . The maximum c o s t was 15«41 c e n t s p e r b u s h e l when m e r c h a n d i s i n g 145 ,000 b u s h e l s i n a 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l e l e v a t o r . These v a l u e s were o b t a i n e d under s t r i c t a s s u m p t i o n s , and p r o v i d e o n l y r e l a t i v e e s t i m a t e s , A s t u d y c o n d u c t e d i n t he W i n t e r Wheat b e l t u s i n g a budget a p p r o a c h i n v o l v i n g s i x e l e v a t o r models f r o m 20 t o 600 t h o u s a n d b u s h e l s c a p a c i t y p r o v i d e d r e s u l t s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e r e p o r t e d i n Y a g e r ' s s t u d y . There were d e f i n i t e c o s t a d -v a n t a g e s t o the l a r g e s t e l e v a t o r . I n o r d e r t o o p e r a t e a t ^ T . E . H a l l , W .K , D a v i s , and H „ L , H a l l , New L o c a l E l e v a t o r s  C o s t - V o l u m e R e l a t i o n s i n the Hard W i n t e r Wheat B e l t , Farmer C o o p e r a t i v e S e r v i c e , U n i t e d S t a t e s Depar tment o f A g r i c u l t u r e , S e r v i c e R e p o r t No . 11 ( W a s h i n g t o n : May , 1 9 5 5 ) . 152 t he same c o s t pe r b u s h e l as e l e v a t o r s i z e i n c r e a s e d , t he r e q u i r e d vo lume d e c r e a s e d . S t o r a g e c o s t s p e r b u s h e l c a p a c i t y , when f u l l y u t i l i z e d , i n the l a r g e e l e v a t o r were one h a l f t he c o s t o f the s m a l l e l e v a t o r . The r e s e a r c h e r s a l s o f ound t h a t v a r i a b l e c o s t s r ema ined r e l a t i v e l y c o n s t a n t ove r the v a r i o u s e l e v a t o r s i z e s . I n a more r e c e n t s t u d y , i t was r e p o r t e d t h a t a t r a d e -o f f e x i s t s be tween s i z e and f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g u s e , o f w h i c h c o s t - r a t e o v e r t ime i s e x t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t i n t he m e r c h a n -d i s i n g o f g r a i n s ^ ? . However , t h e r a t e o f s u b s t i t u t i o n was no t d e t e r m i n e d ; and i t was no t s u g g e s t e d what compromise s h o u l d be made be tween a l a r g e p l a n t f o r h a r v e s t s e a s o n use and a s m a l l e r p l a n t t o r e d u c e t o t a l a n n u a l ove rhead c o s t s , MacDona ld and MacKay f ound t h a t even at f u l l u t i l i z a t i o n , i d l a r g e f i r m s had c o s t advan tages 4 " . I t was f ound t h a t two -t h i r d s o f t he d e c r e a s e i n s t o r a g e c o s t s o c c u r r e d be tween 100 ,000 and 3 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l e l e v a t o r s when c o m p a r i n g p l a n t s f r o m 100 ,000 t o 7 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s . An e q u a t i o n was e s t i -mated by l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n t o e s t i m a t e s t o r a g e c o s t s . (1) Y' = 1940 .70 + .0674XT + . 0 3 7 8 X 2 ( .00895) ( .01388) b-^  s i g n i f i c a n t t o 1% \>2 s i g n i f i c a n t t o 5% try ' V . L . S o r e n s o n and C D , K e y e s , Cos t R e l a t i o n s h i p s i n G r a i n  P l a n t s . M i c h i g a n S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , A g r i c u l t u r a l E x p . S t a . & D e p t . o f A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s , T e c h n i c a l B u l l e t i n No. 292 ( E a s t L a n s i n g : I 9 6 3 ) . ^ E . M . McDonald and J . H . McCoy, C o s t s o f S t o r i n g R e s e r v e S t o c k s  o f Wheat a t C o u n t r y E l e v a t o r s and on Farms i n K a n s a s , A g r i -c u l t u r a l M a r k e t i n g S e r v i c e , U n i t e d S t a t e s Depar tment of A g r i -c u l t u r e , M a r k e t i n g R e s e a r c h R e p o r t No . 124 ( W a s h i n g t o n : J u n e , 1 9 5 6 ) . 153 where /Y V = t o t a l cost X]_ = s i z e of e l e v a t o r R = .#461 = unused c a p a c i t y In a Manitoba study i t was reported that the averaged combined cost of handling and s t o r i n g of g r a i n was 9 .54 ± 49 3 . 2 9 cents per bushel . The most important i n f l u e n c e i n reducing average cost was the increase of handling t o c a p a c i t y r a t i o although increase i n the u t i l i z a t i o n of c a p a c i t y and annex-to-capacity r a t i o s was found to reduce c o s t . The l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n i n c l u d i n g i n t e r e s t and deprec-i a t i o n on the pooled observations was: (2) Average cost ($/bu«) = ,2765 - .0111^ + ,0075X^ - , 0 5 0 3 X 2 (.0051) (.0007) (.0091) - ,0282X„ 3 (.0105) R 2 = .793 where X^ = handling t o c a p a c i t y r a t i o Xg = annex to c a p a c i t y r a t i o X^ = per cent u t i l i z a t i o n of the e l e v a t o r Throughout these stud i e s there was an emphasis on volume, c a p a c i t y use, and the economies of s c a l e . There e x i s t s a t r a d e - o f f between c a p a c i t y ^ , volume, and u t i l i z a t i o n w i t h the influences of time i n t e r a c t i n g . E s s e n t i a l l y then, volume i s the major i n f l u e n c e of cost and the s i n g l e parameter most u s e f u l f o r adequate planning. ^ Z a s a d a , p p . c i t , , pp.70-86, ^M.L, Manuel, l JAgri-Business Firms Need to Grow", Kansas  A g r i c u l t u r a l S i t u a t i o n ( V o l , XL, No, 11, 1964) spp c °4-5o 154 A 1 9 6 6 U.S.D.A. publication contains a report of a study-involving the cost of handling and storing grain at commer-c i a l elevators i n the United States by areas, types, and 51 kinds of construction . The average costs f o r handling and storing grain at country elevators using four cate-gories per bushel costs were reported: (1) Out-of-pocket costs (no in t e r e s t or depreciation) 6.9 cents; (2) t o t a l cost which includes the. firms own figures f o r depreciation and i n t e r e s t 10.4 cents; (3) short-term competitive rates r e f l e c t i n g out-of-pocket cost of the marginal firms $.0 cents; and (4) long-term competitive rates based on t o t a l costs including interest and depreciation on replacement values 13o5 cents. Storage costs alone averaged 5«4 cents per bushel using cost category two and increased to 6.7 cents per bushel by category four. The average cost of receiving grain by truck was 2.1 and 2.3 cents per bushel with cost types two and four respectively. Using the same categories, average costs of 2.9 and 3.2 cents per bushel were reported to load and ship r a i l cars. Thus, t o t a l handling c o s t s — e x c l u s i v e of storage—were reported to be 5.0 to 6.8 cents per bushel. Data. Non-random accounting records from 57 country elevators were obtained. The locations of the elevators were geographically dispersed throughout Alberta. A l l costs were obtained f o r years 1958-59 and 1964-65 for a l l 51 Costs of Storing and Handling Grain i n Commercial Elevators. 1964-65 (Ec onomic Research Service No. 288, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, i 9 6 0 ) . 155 57 e l e v a t o r s s p r o v i d i n g 114 o b s e r v a t i o n s „ However , no t a l l o b s e r v a t i o n s were u s e a b l e . The r e a s o n f o r t he d e c r e a s e i n o b s e r v a t i o n s was t h a t no t a l l c o s t s were a v a i l a b l e f o r each e l e v a t o r . The 101 o b s e r v a t i o n s were o b t a i n e d i n the c a t e g o r y o f c o s t s w h i c h d i d no t i n c l u d e n o n - o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , whereas the two c a t e g o r i e s i n c l u d i n g t h e s e c o s t s had 100 o b s e r v a t i o n s , as t h e h i s t o r i c c o s t o f c o n s t r u c t i o n was no t a v a i l a b l e f o r one e l e v a t o r . The c o s t was v e r y s i m i l a r t o Z a s a d a ' s , and the same d e f i n i t i o n s o f o p e r a t i n g and n o n - o p e r a t i n g c o s t s were u s e d ' * 2 . The o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , f o r the A l b e r t a e l e v a t o r s , d i d no t i n c l u d e a s h a r e o f g e n e r a l head o f f i c e expenses no r was s h r i n k a g e and d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n c l u d e d . The method o f c a l c u l a t i n g c o s t s f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n and i n t e r e s t on i n -ves tmen t was c o n s i d e r a b l y d i f f e r e n t i n t he Zasada s t u d y f r o m t h a t u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y * * 3 . B u i l d i n g c o s t s o r a c q u i s i t i o n c o s t s were a v a i l a b l e . The l a t t e r wou ld i n c l u d e r e n t . I t was assumed t h a t a c q u i -s i t i o n c o s t s wou ld a p p r o x i m a t e b u i l d i n g c o s t s f o r t h e y e a r o f the p u r c h a s e . Three t y p e s o f c o s t s were c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e e l e v a t o r s : (1) o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , ( 2 ) s t a n d a r d i z e d d e -p r e c i a t i o n and i n t e r e s t upon o r i g i n a l a c q u i s i t i o n c o s t s , / \ 54 and (3) r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s » P r e p a r a t i o n o f s t a n d a r d i z e d c o s t i n v o l v e s an a t t emp t t o e s t i m a t e book c o s t s , t h a t i s the v a l u e c a r r i e d on the b o o k s , A d e p r e c i a t i o n r a t e o f 6 5 2 Z a s a d a , o p . c i t , . _„ p . 6 3 ^ 3 I b i d „ , p p „ 6 4 - 6 9 . 5 4 Economic R e s e a r c h S e r v i c e No . 2 8 8 , o p . c i t , . p . l and 26, 1 5 6 p e r c e n t f o r h a l f t he o r i g i n a l . a c q u i s i t i o n c o s t was c a l -c u l a t e d f o r each e l e v a t o r . Rep lacement c o s t s were d e t e r -mined by u s i n g a s e r i e s o f i n d e x numbers t o upda te o r i g i n a l 5 5 c o s t s t o 1964-65 » T h i s method s e r v e s as a b a s i s f o r e s -t i m a t i n g c o s t s a p p l i c a b l e t o i n d u c e new i n v e s t m e n t o r r e -i n v e s t m e n t . I n t e r e s t and d e p r e c i a t i o n r a t e s were the same as t h o s e used i n e s t i m a t i n g s t a n d a r d i z e d book c o s t s . The o t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h was c o l l e c t e d p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h p u t , t h a t i s the amount o f g r a i n s h i p p e d out o f an e l e v a t o r i n a p a r t i c u l a r y e a r , and the t o t a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e e l e v a t o r s . E m p i r i c a l R e s u l t s , The combined a v e r a g e c o s t o f s t o r i n g and h a n d l i n g g r a i n f o r a l l e l e v a t o r s was e s t i m a t e d as 1 4 = 2 2 + 8 , 4 3 c e n t s pe r b u s h e l , as shown i n T a b l e X X X I , T h i s c o s t i n c l u d e s d e p r e c i a t i o n and i n t e r e s t on i n v e s t m e n t on t he e s t i m a t e d r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t o f e a c h e l e v a t o r . The ave rage c o s t p e r b u s h e l as e s t i m a t e d by s t r a t a was e x t r e m e l y h i g h f o r e l e v a t o r s o f l e s s t h a n 4 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s c a p a c i t y , and s i m i l a r f o r t he s t r a t a s 4 0 , 0 0 0 t o 5 9 , 9 9 9 , 6 0 , 0 0 0 t o 9 9 , 9 9 9 and ove r 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 , b e i n g 1 2 . 0 6 , 1 2 . 2 6 , and 1 2 . 3 6 c e n t s pe r b u s h e l r e s p e c t i v e l y . However , t he ave rage c o s t p e r b u s h e l d e c r e a s e d as c a p a c i t y i n c r e a s e d when s t a n d a r d i z e d book and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s were u s e d . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t a l a r g e f i x e d c o s t i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t s . The ave rage s t a n d a r d i z e d c o s t o f a l l e l e v a t o r s was e s t i m a t e d a t 9°92 c e n t s p e r b u s h e l whereas Zasada f o u n d an ave rage 55 I b i d . . , p . 2 S . TABLE XXXI 1 5 7 MEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST B I STRATUM AND COST CATEGORY S t r a t u m C a t e g o r y Rep lacemen t C o s t s Book C o s t s O p e r a t i n g C o s t s C a p a c i t y i n B u s h e l s Mean $ S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n $ Mean $ / b u s h e l S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n $ / b u s h e l 3 9 , 9 9 9 9 , 5 0 6 . 1 0 1 , 4 1 3 . 7 0 . 1 9 5 8 . 1 3 2 3 4 0 , 0 0 0 -5 9 , 9 9 9 1 1 , 0 9 4 . 6 0 1 , 3 7 2 . 2 0 . 1 2 0 6 . 0 4 1 2 6 0 , 0 0 0 -9 9 , 9 9 9 1 4 , 5 5 5 . 0 0 3 , 4 4 5 . 6 0 . 1 2 2 6 . 0 4 8 9 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 2 3 , 5 0 2 . 8 0 5 , 9 1 0 . 3 0 . 1 2 3 6 . 0 4 4 3 A l l E l e v a t o r s 1 4 , 4 5 3 . 9 0 6 , 3 6 4 . 9 0 . 1 4 2 2 . 0 8 4 3 3 9 , 9 9 9 6 , 7 8 8 . 5 0 1 , 3 1 3 . 2 0 . 1 3 6 6 . 0 8 6 5 4 0 , 0 0 0 -5 9 , 9 9 9 8 , 4 7 1 . 1 0 1 , 5 8 5 . 0 0 . 0 9 2 6 . 0 3 4 4 6 0 , 0 0 0 -9 9 , 9 9 9 1 0 , 7 3 9 . 7 0 2 , 9 9 9 . 9 0 . 0 8 9 1 . 0 3 4 9 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 1 4 , 1 3 4 . 0 0 3 , 2 4 7 . 3 0 . 0 7 0 6 . 0 2 4 8 A l l E l e v a t o r s 9 , 9 3 1 . S O 3 , 6 3 2 . 1 0 . 0 9 9 2 . 0 5 6 9 3 9 , 9 9 9 5 , 5 5 7 . 5 0 1 , 2 9 7 . 2 0 . 1 0 9 3 . 0 6 3 9 4 0 , 0 0 0 -5 9 , 9 9 9 6 , 2 8 8 . 3 0 9 3 3 . 5 0 . 0 6 8 4 . 0 2 3 2 6 0 , 0 0 0 -9 9 , 9 9 9 7 , 4 5 7 . 2 0 1 , 8 2 6 . 7 0 . 0 6 4 1 . 0 2 8 0 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 9 , 6 8 5 . 7 0 2 , 4 3 1 . 4 0 . 0 5 0 1 .0160 A l l E l e v a t o r s 7 , 1 9 0 . 7 0 2 , 2 7 8 . 1 0 . 0 7 4 0 . 0 4 4 1 S o u r c e o f D a t a : C a l c u l a t e d f r o m d a t a p r o v i d e d by c o n f i d e n t i a l s o u r c e . 158 o f 9 . 5 4 c e n t s p e r b u s h e l . The t h r o u g h p u t t o c a p a c i t y r a t i o o f the s t r a t a s were l o w e s t f o r t he l a r g e e l e v a t o r s w h e r e -as t he h i g h e s t r a t i o o c c u r r e d i n the s t r a t a o f 4 0 , 0 0 0 t o 5 9 s 9 9 9 b u s h e l s • c a p a c i t y , as shown i n T a b l e X X X I I , i n d i c a -t i n g t h a t a l o w e r ave rage c o s t c o u l d o c c u r i n e l e v a t o r s w i t h c a p a c i t y g r e a t e r t h a n 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s . The ave rage e l e v a t o r c a p a c i t y i n the sample was 69,848 b u s h e l s w i t h a t h r o u g h p u t t o c a p a c i t y r a t i o of 1 . 9 3 as shown i n T a b l e X X X I I . The e q u a t i o n s were e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e t h r e e t y p e s o f c o s t s men t i oned u s i n g a l l o b s e r v a t i o n s . The o b s e r v a t i o n s were t h e n s t r a t i f i e d i n t o f o u r s u b - g r o u p s w i t h r e s p e c t t o c a p a c i t y . These g roups were fo rmed by c l a s s i f y i n g e l e v a t o r s as 0 t o 3 9 , 9 9 9 , 4 0 , 0 0 0 t o 5 9 , 9 9 9 , 6 0 , 0 0 0 t o 9 9 , 9 9 9 and 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 o r g r e a t e r b u s h e l s c a p a c i t y . Two e q u a -t i o n s were s e l e c t e d f o r use i n t he m o d e l . The e q u a t i o n s a re p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e X X X I I I f o r b o t h p o o l e d and s t r a t i -f i e d d a t a . One o t h e r e q u a t i o n i s b r i e f l y examined a l -t hough i t was no t used i n t h e m o d e l . E s t i m a t i o n o f Cos t F u n c t i o n s . The t e c h n i q u e o f l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n was used t o e s t i m a t e s e v e r a l e q u a t i o n s as shown i n A p p e n d i x I I T a b l e s X C I I t o C V I . Two o f t h e s e e q u a t i o n s were c h o s e n f o r use i n the m o d e l . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , a v a i l a b l e d a t a d i d no t con fo rm t o t h e i d e a l d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s , i m p l y i n g t he p o s s i b i l i t y o f b i a s and d i s t o r t i o n f o r e s t i m a t i o n o f the r e a l c o s t e q u a t i o n ^ . - ^ J , J o h n s t o n , S t a t i s t i c a l Cos t A n a l y s i s (New Y o r k ; McGraw-H i l l Book C o , , I 9 6 0 ) , p p . 2 6 - 3 0 . 1 5 9 TABLE X X X I I MEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF CAPACITY, THROUGHPUT, AND THROUGHPUT/CAPACITY BY STRATUM* S t r a t u m V a r i a b l e Mean S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n A l l E l e v a t o r s T h r o u g h p u t ( b u s . ) C a p a c i t y ! b u s . ) T h r o u g h p u t / C a p a c i t y 1 2 7 , 6 3 7 6 9 , 8 4 8 1 . 9 3 8 4 , 1 5 S 3 8 , 5 6 9 . 8 4 3 9 , 9 9 9 T h r o u g h p u t ( b u s . ) C a p a c i t y ! b u s . ) T /C 6 3 , 6 1 3 3 3 , 0 7 4 1 . 9 8 2 9 , 0 4 5 2 , 9 9 6 1.01 4 0 , 0 0 0 -5 9 , 9 9 9 Throughpu t ( b u s . ) C a p a c i t y ( b u s . ) T /C 1 0 0 , 1 5 0 4 8 , 6 5 2 2 . 1 9 3 0 , 3 7 2 7 , 5 8 4 . 6 6 6 0 , 0 0 0 -9 9 , 9 9 9 Throughpu t ( b u s . ) C a p a c i t y ( b u s . ) T / C 1 3 9 , 5 8 0 4 8 , 6 5 2 1 . 9 0 6 5 , 8 0 2 7 , 5 # 4 . 8 7 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 Throughpu t ( b u s . ) C a p a c i t y ( b u s . ) T / C 2 1 6 , 2 6 2 1 3 0 , 1 4 4 1 . 6 6 1 0 3 , 0 9 2 2 4 , 3 6 9 . 6 8 S o u r c e o f D a t a : C a l c u l a t e d f r o m d a t a p r o v i d e d by c o n f i d e n t i a l s o u r c e . TABLE XXXIII ESTIMATION OF TOTAL COST AND AVERAGE COST EQUATIONS BY SIZE OF ELEVATOR Evaluated at Replacement Costs 2 Obser-Stratum (bu.) R vations F-Ratio 1. A l l ,8579 X a = 3 6 8 9 . 9 + .02383 X b + .11055 X° 100 292.7517 Elevators (2424.2) (.00426) (.00930) 5.5942**** l i e 8918**** 2. -^39,999 .2383 Xj_ = 130,2 + .01592 X 2 + .25287 ^ 27 4.8612 (1245.7) (,00881) (.03537) 1 ,8075* 2 , 9 6 1 9 * * 3 . 40 , 0 0 0 - ,5446 X]_ = 2110,3 + 0O2283 X 2 + ,13766 X 23 ll„95o5 5 9 ' 9 9 9 (1325.2) (,00957) (.03831) 2 , 3 8 6 9 * * 3 . 5929** 4 . 6 0 , 0 0 0 - ,4377 X 2 = 334.3 + o02571 X + ,14434 X 27 11,4246 9 9 = 9 9 9 (2566,8) (,00311) ( .06203) 3 , 1 7 0 6 * * * * 2 , 3 2 5 0 * * 5 . ^ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 ,6066 X x = 4197.1 + ,02627 X 2 + ,10469 X 3 23 15.4221 (3887.7) ( ,00949) (,04016) 2 , 7 6 7 0 * * * 2 , 6 0 6 6 * * * 1, A l l ,9465 X^ = - 3 , 0 1 6 0 9 - 0,23350 X 2 0,79288 X 7 L 0 7 5 5 8 X ^ 100 566.1659 Elevators (.03855) (.07597) (2.14044) - 6 . 0 5 7 5 1 * * * * 1 0 , 4 3 626****33.20607**** i- 1 o^  o TABLE XXXIII (Continued) Obser-Stratum (bu.) R vations F-ratio 2. ( 39,999 .9769 % 9 = -1.84357 - 0.48472 + 3.01240 X^ 67.70872 X u 2 7 324.3595 2.13713 ( . 2 2 6 9 8 ) ( 1 . 4 6 9 8 9 ) (3.67216) - 2 . 1 3 5 5 4 * * 2.04940* 18.43840**** 3. 40,000- .9212 X = -0.17655 - 0.23116 X 2 + 1.40533 ^ + 68.74903 X n 23 74.0732 59,999 1.24484 o l 8 5 2 1 .36230 11.30579 -1.24811 3 . 8 7 8 9 4 * * * * 6 c 08015**** 4. 60,000- 0 8 8 6 4 X 9 = 2.60193 - 0.18520 X g + .81704 X^ + 67.95126 X n 27 59.7977 9 9 > 9 9 9 (1.75342) (.09142) (.42568) (10.86389) -2.02584** L 9 1 9 3 8 * * 6.25478 ;: '1* "1- ' i v 5 . > 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 . 7 3 5 1 x 9 = 2 . 8 3 4 0 5 - 0 . 1 0 4 4 9 x 2 + 0 . 3 7 1 6 2 x 3 1 2 3 . 8 8 9 4 x n 2 3 1 7 . 5 7 8 2 ( 2 . 4 5 1 3 5 ) ( . 1 2 9 9 5 ) ( . 2 7 7 7 1 ) ( 4 8 . 1 7 7 9 2 ) - . 8 0 4 0 7 1 . 3 3 8 1 2 2 . 5 7 1 5 0 * * * . 0 5 a Total Cost i n d o l l a r s x l.E-04 . 0 2 5 b Throughput i n bushels x l.E-04 .01 c Capacity i n Bushels x l . E - 0 4 . 0 0 5 d Average cost i n cents per bushel e l/Throughput i n bushels x l . E - 0 4 t—• ON )—J 1 6 2 The models used were; X-^  = Total Cost = „ X^ s X^, X , X^, Xy, Xg, x - ^ Q S X - Q , X-^) Average Cost = ^ ( X 2 » ^ 3 ' X 4 S X , X^s X y J X g S X 1 0 » X l l ' X 1 2 ^ X]_ = Total cost 9 = Capacity X^ = Throughput h = Capacity^ X-j = Capacity x 9 = Average cost X = Throughput/Capacity 4 X 1 0 = log capacity X^ = Throughput 2 x l l = l/Throughput, and 3 X^ = Throughput^ X 1 2 = (Throughput/Capacity) The regressors were t r i e d i n various combinations, and stepwise regression was used to determine which combin-ations would provide high c o e f f i c i e n t s of determination and s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s . The equations were then, of 57 course, i n d i v i d u a l l y estimated by least squares . The s t a t i s t i c a l assumptions of l i n e a r regression are quite stringent, and no doubt, there are v i o l a t i o n s i n t h i s study. The most serious problem, i n the broad sense, i s that of eg s p e c i f i c a t i o n „ However, the problems were ignored be-cause the t h e o r e t i c a l corrections are d i f f i c u l t to apply, and the extent of the bias was unknown. The f i r s t equation explains t o t a l cost as l i n e a r i n throughput and capacity. The estimated equations are shown i n Table XXXIII. The c o e f f i c i e n t s are a l l s i g n i f i c a n t 57 'A.S. Goldberger, Econometric Theory (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1 9 6 4 ) pp. 1 9 4 - 1 9 7 . I b i d . . pp.192-194, 2 3 1 - 2 3 6 , 2 6 7 - 2 7 2 , 282-284; Johnston, OP. cit. p p . 3 2 - 3 8 ; J. Johnston, Econometric Methods (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co. Ltd., 1963), p.229. 163 at the 0.05 l e v e l f o r a l l s t r a t a . When a l l observations are pooled, the equation (1) has a c o e f f i c i e n t of determination of „8579o However, the t o t a l cost within stratas was not as well explained as i n the pooled equation. When replacement costs were used, the capacity c o e f f i c i e n t was larger than when standardized book costs or non-operating costs were used as shown i n Appendix II Tables XCVII to CVI. The average cost curve i s L-shaped, and marginal costs are l i n e a r and constant. This does not mean that a U-shaped average cost curve could not e x i s t , as costs may r i s e when firms are very large, but no relevant observations e x i s t . Average cost decreases as throughput increases. E s s e n t i a l l y , then, the volume of grain handled and stored becomes the important variable i n the reduction of costs. The use of ex i s t i n g elevators would be less expensive than adding to storage capacity. The second equation explains average cost as a func-t i o n of throughput, capacity, and the r e c i p r o c a l of through-59 put . The estimated, equations, shown i n Table XXXIII, have very high c o e f f i c i e n t s of determination. However, the es-timated c o e f f i c i e n t s are not a l l s i g n i f i c a n t at .05 for a l l s t r a t a . The throughput c o e f f i c i e n t i s negative, i n d i c a t i n g a decreasing average cost as throughput i s increased. Inter-polation beyond the range of the values i n the data i s ex-tremely dangerous i n t h i s model fo r average cost can be negative, given s u f f i c i e n t throughput. Johnston, S t a t i s t i c a l Cost Analysis (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., I 9 6 0 ) , p.12, c i t i n g H.T. Davis, The Theory of Econometrics (Bloomington: P r i n c i p i a Press, 1 9 4 1 ) s p.125. 1 6 4 Average cost as explained by throughput and through-put squared i s shown i n Table XXXIVo The curves are, of 2 course, U-shaped. The R values are greater f o r the strata's than f o r the pooled observations, i n d i c a t i n g the lack of a cu r v i l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p i n the pooled data. The average cost curves of the two previous models confirm the hypothesis that the pooled data show a decreasing average cost curve which does not increase at extreme levels of throughput, i f capacity i s held constant. An in t e r e s t i n g r e s u l t of the equa-tions f o r the four strata was that the minimum average cost would be obtained at throughput to capacity r a t i o s of 3 « 3 1 , 2 . 8 7 , 3 . 4 7 s and 3 ° 4 5 f o r strata 2 , 3 , 4 , and 5, respectively. The averages determined from the data were lower than the above r a t i o s . The minimum costs were 5 » 6 8 , 3 « 7 1 , 6 . 5 3 s and 5=72 cents per bushel for stratas 2 , 3 , 4 , and 5 , respective-, 6 0 l y . The d i f f i c u l t y i n the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the results was that the estimated equations do not represent short run or long run cost curves. Both cross-sectional and time series data were used, a procedure which does not provide estimates of the true underlying cost curves. The resul t i s a hybrid 6 l curve inadequately representing any t h e o r e t i c a l function The hybrid cost curves do, however, indicate general cost re l a t i o n s h i p s . 6 0 The average capacity i n each st r a t a was used. 6 l A.A. Walters, "Production and Cost Functions; An Econometric Survey", Econometrica (Vol. XXXI No. 1 - 2 , 1 9 6 3 ) , p.4 8 ; M. Friediman, Price Theory A Provisional Text (Chicago: Aldine Publishing Co., 1 9 6 5 ) , pp. 1 3 9 - 1 4 7 . TABLE XXXIV ESTIMATES OF AVERAGE COST BY SIZE STRATA USING REPLACEMENT COSTS Average Cost 3 Throughput13 Throughput 2 0 F-ratio 1. A l l .4417 X = 2t3o29769 - 1,58241 X + 0o02624 X 38o3670 6o3?652 (.21091) 2 ( 0 O O 4 8 9 ) -7.50289 5.36858 2= <39,999 08665 X 9 = 6 2 0 8 6 8 9 8 - 10.44568 X 2 + .47661 X^ 77.8723 (5.03095) (1.11063) (.07395) -6o30548 6.44544 3. 40,000- .8440 X = 35.9537 - 3*90565 X 2 + 0.13952 X 5 54.1099 59,999 (1.70743) (.61941) (.03043) -6,30548 4.58527 4o 60,000- .8157 X 9 = 27*91793 - 1.68026 X ? + 0 o 0 3 2 9 7 53.1245 " 3 " 9 2.18574 (.26496) (.00795) -6.34149 4.14893 5. y100,000 06825 X = 2 5 . 8 3 5 5 6 - O 0 8 9 6 9 2 X ? + 0.01040 X^ 21.4967 (2o6159) (.20549) ~ (.00356) -4.36450 2.92272 Average cost i n cents per bushel ^ Throughput i n bushels x l.E-04 c 2 Throughput i n (bushels x l.E-04) OA 1 6 6 Empirical Results i n the Simulation Model. The f i r s t two equations i n Table XXXIII were used i n the model, as well as the average cost curve estimated by Zasada, Equa-6 2 t i o n 2 . The l a t t e r equation required the use of the aver-age annex to capacity r a t i o s determined f o r Manitoba. The handling-to-capacity r a t i o was determined weekly, and the average computed i n the model. The d i f f i c u l t y i n use of t h i s variable was that grain moved to the elevators each week i n a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n to the space available at the elevators, and consequently, the r a t i o of handling to capacity was greater than that found i n the r e a l world. The model was programmed so that the t o t a l capacity of a l l elevators at a point was used, rather than the capacity of each separate elevator. This s i m p l i f i e d the model, and since the grain receipts by each elevator were not known, the aggregation procedure did not involve loss of information. The average size of elevator f o r the six shipping points was 9 0 , 6 1 6 bushels with t o t a l capacity of 2 , 2 6 5 , 4 0 0 bushels as shown i n Table XXXV. Four elevators at Grande P r a i r i e have an average capacity of 154,375 bushels while Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen and Hythe have average capacities of 4 2 , 6 6 7 , 8 7 , 7 5 0 , 3 0 , 0 0 0 , 7 7 , 6 8 3 , and 1 0 7 , 1 3 3 respectively. The four companies represented at the points are the Alberta Wheat Pool, Alberta P a c i f i c Grain Company^, National Grain 6 2 Zasada, op.cit.„ p . 7 4 . ^This elevator company has been amalgamated with Federal Grain Ltd. TABLE XXXV 1 6 7 ELEVATOR CAPACITIES OF AFFILIATED COMPANIES BI LOCATION, 1965 & Station A f f i l i a t i o n Capacity (bu Grande P r a i r i e A.W.P. 1 1 0 , 0 0 0 A.P.G. 1 3 7 , 0 0 0 N.G.L. 1 3 6 ,500 U.G.G. 2 3 4 , 0 0 0 Total 4 6 1 7 ,500 Mean 1 5 4 , 3 7 5 Dimsdale A.W.P. 4 0 , 0 0 0 A.W.P. 28 , 0 0 0 U.G.G. 6 0 , 0 0 0 Total 3 1 2 8 , 0 0 0 Mean 4 2 , 6 6 7 Wembley A.W.P. 1 1 1 , 0 0 0 A.P.G. 9 1 , 0 0 0 U.G.G. 9 2 , 0 0 0 Total U.G.G. 5 7 , 0 0 0 4 3 5 1 , 0 0 0 Mean 8 7 , 7 5 0 Huallen A.P.G. 3 0 , 0 0 0 A.P.G. 3 0 , 0 0 0 Total 2 6 0 , 0 0 0 Mean 3 0 , 0 0 0 Beaverlodge A.W.P. 1 2 0 , 0 0 0 A.P.G. 7 5 , 0 0 0 N.G.L. 6 5 , 0 0 0 U.G.G. 7 6 0 0 0 U.G.G. 6 7 0 0 0 Total U.G.G. 6 3 1 0 0 6 4 6 6 j 1 0 0 Mean 7 7 , 6 7 3 Hythe A.W.P. 1 3 5 , 0 0 0 A.P.G. 3 7 , 0 0 0 N.G.L. 1 1 0 , 0 0 0 U.G.G. 1 3 9 , 0 0 0 U.G.G. 9 2 , 0 0 0 Total U.G.G. 7 9 , 8 0 0 b 6 4 2 , 800 Mean 1 0 7 , 1 3 3 Total f o r A l l Points 2 5 2 , 2 6 5 , 4 0 0 Mean 90,' 6 1 6 'Source: Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada. Grain Elevato i n Canada f o r Crop l e a r 1965-66 as at August 1, 1965. (Canada Department of Agriculture, Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1 9 6 5 ) . 168 Limited and United Grain Growers Ltd, with 6, 6, 3, a n d 10 elevators respectively as shown i n Table XXXVI. The aver-age size of elevator owned by the respective firms was 90,666, 75sOOO, 103,833, and 93,990 bushels. The r a t i o of the ten year average receipts divided by capacity were 1.39, 1.64, 1.25, 1.79, 1.14, and 0.94 f o r Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, Beaverlodge, and Hythe respec-t i v e l y as shown i n Table XXXVII. The estimated equations predict that a lower average cost could be obtained by increasing the volume of grain handled, without expanding elevators, and the quadratic functions indicate a throughput-to-capacity r a t i o of approxi-mately three would be required to minimize average costs. However, i f the potential crop i s divided by capacity the r a t i o s increase to 3.23, 3.13, 2.27, 4.16, 2.63, and 2.27 f o r the six points. These larger r a t i o s would decrease average cost. This may indicate that expected grain receipts were based on t o t a l crop production. Carryover or stocks i n store at each point and for two companies at f i v e points i s shown i n Table XXXVIII. The stocks were substantial as indicated by determining the bushels stored per bushel capacity values. They were .60, °799 .84, .83, .74, and .71 f o r Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, Beaverlodge, and Hythe respectively while the values for the United Grain Growers were .68, .71, .83, .49, and .64 at the same points. There i s no explana-t i o n why the l a t t e r company has less carryover but would allow 1 6 9 TABLE XXXVI TOTAL ELEVATOR CAPACITY BY AFFILIATED COMPANIES3 A f f i l i a t i o n Number Capacity Average (bushels) (bushels) A.W. P . 6 5 4 4 , - 0 0 0 . 9 0 , 6 6 6 A.P.G. 6 4 5 0 , 0 0 0 7 5 , 0 0 0 N.G.L. 3 3 1 1 , 5 0 0 1 0 3 , 8 3 3 U.G.G. 1 0 9 3 9 , 9 0 0 9 3 , 9 9 0 Source: Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, Grain  Elevators i n Canada f o r Crop Year 1965-66 as at August 1 1965 (Canada Department of Agriculture, Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1 9 6 5 ) . TABLE XXXVII 170 ELEVATOR CAPACITY VS. 10 YEAR AVERAGE RECEIPTS AND 10 YEAR CROP POTENTIAL PRODUCTION3, Area Elevator 10 yr.Average Capacity of receipts (Bushels) (Bushels) 10 yr.Poten-t i a l Crop b (bushels) Receipts/ Poten./ Capacity Capacity Grande P r a i r i e 617,500 850,900 1,982,017 1.39 3.23 Dimsdale 128,000 208,821 400,447 1.64 3.13 Wembley 3 5 1 , 0 0 0 441,763.5 803,486 1.25 2.27 Huallen 60,000 107,407 2 5 5 , 1 4 5 1.79 4.16 Beaver-lodge 466,100 528,888 1,235,977 1.14 2.63 Hythe 642,800 609,020 1,457,230 0.94 2 . 2 7 Source: Board of Grain Commissioners, Grain Elevators i n Canada  fo r Crop Year 1 9 6 5 - 6 6 as at August 1 , 1 9 6 5 (Canada Department of Agriculture, Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, I965); Data f o r acreages supplied courtesy of the Board of Grain Commissioners, Unpublished, 1 9 6 6 'Potential crop was determined by multiplying the acres of oats, wheat, barley, f l a x , and rye by the average y i e l d s f o r Census D i s t r i c t 1 5 . TABLE X X X V I I I 171 TOTAL STOCKS OF ALL GRAINS IN STORE ON JULY 3 1 & Point A f f i l i a t i o n Average Average Total Bushels Bushels i n store i n Store per bu. capacity Grande P r a i r i e ALL b 370,667 .60 A.W.P ° 94,646 .86 U.G.G„ d 159,402 .68 Dimsdale ALL 100,778 .79 A.W.P. 57,577 .35 U.G.G. 42,356 .71 Wembley ALL 296,333 .34 A.W.P. 97,413 .88 U.G.G. 123,538 .83 Huallen ALL 49,889 .83 Beaverlodge A l l 346,444 .74 A.W.P 106,933 .89 U.G.G. 99,971 .49 Hythe ALL 457,556 .71 A.W.P. 103,022 .76 U.G.G. 193,270 .64 Source: Data provided by the courtesy of the Canadian Wheat Board, Alberta Wheat Pool, and United Grain Growers. A l l elevators at the point f o r years 1955, 1957-1964. c A l b e r t a Wheat Pool f o r years 1957 to 1964. ^United Grain Growers f o r years 1957 to 1964. 172 farmers t o d e l i v e r a great d e a l more g r a i n t o t h i s company i n the f i r s t part of the new crop year. In t h i s s e c t i o n an attempt has been made to provide a b r i e f background to the e l e v a t o r i n d u s t r y and i t s problemso Equations were estimated by l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n to provide costs of handling and s t o r i n g g r a i n . Although the i n d u s t r y merits a great d e a l more a n a l y s i s and d i s c u s s i o n , other authors have covered the subject i n greater d e t a i l than was warranted here. 173 CHAPTER VI RESULTS The previous chapters have outlined the simulation model, computer model, and the data required i n the model. In t h i s chapter, the r e s u l t s from the computer model are presented. Ten runs, that i s , experiments, were made using a single f a c t o r approach to the sampling. This approach was taken to provide data of possible alternative configurations. The f i r s t experiment provides the status quo or benchmark estimate of the cost of grain assembly. The next four focus on the reduction of elevator capacity. The sixth and seventh experiments involved reduction of farm bin space and i n the l a t t e r , truck size was increased. The remaining three experiments reduce the number of elevator points. Experiment One. The f i r s t run provides the bench-mark, that i s , the costs of grain assembly as they presently e x i s t . The estimates include the costs as discussed i n the previous chapter, including farm bin costs, ground storage costs, farm handling costs, hauling costs, and elevator costs. There are three d i f f e r e n t t o t a l costs associated with the country elevators, defined as (1) Average cost = f(handling-to-capacity r a t i o , annex-to-capacity r a t i o , per cent u t i l i z a t i o n of the elevator); 1 7 4 ( 2 ) t o t a l costs = f(throughput, capacity); and ( 3 ) Average cost = f(throughput, capacity, l/throughput), but only the f i r s t t o t a l elevator cost was used to compute the t o t a l cost of grain assembly. The remaining two t o t a l costs f o r country elevators were obtained from estimated equations determined i n t h i s study, and provide estimates which are also applicable to country elevator costs. The assumed design variables f o r the i n i t i a l run are shown i n Table XXXIX. Crop production, r a i l shipments, crop and r a i l modifiers, and ground storage costs are presented i n the computer model as shown i n Appendix I. The r e s u l t s of run one are presented i n Table XL, XLI, and XLII. Grain shipments out of each point are less than the calculated long term average of grain receipts which resulted from a sampling technique involving only f i f t e e n years, rather than a very large number of years.. The Monte Carlo technique requires a large sample to provide the f u l l p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n , however, a l l runs employ the same number of years providing comparable estimates. Grain shipments f o r Dimsdale and Huallen, which are the smallest points i n terms of volume of grain, were quite close to the long term average of grain receipts being l e s s than h i s t o r i c averages by 10,000 and 8 , 0 0 0 bushels per year respectively. The other four points are 3 0 to 4 0 , 0 0 0 bushels l e s s than the long term average receipts. TABLE XXXIX ASSUMED VALUES OF DESIGN.. VARIABLES FOR THE INITIAL ESTIMATE OF GRAIN ASSEMBLY COSTS Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge Hythe Total Elevator Capacity (fOO bu.) 6 , 1 7 5 1 , 2 8 0 3 , 5 1 0 6 0 0 4 , 6 6 1 6 , 4 2 8 Number of Elevators . 4 3 4 2 6 .6 Average Size ( ' 0 0 bu.) 1 , 5 4 3 . 7 5 4 2 6 . 6 7 8 7 7 . 5 3 0 0 7 6 6 . 8 3 1 , 0 7 1 . 3 3 Annex-to-Capacity R a t i o 3 0 . 6 2 1 0 . 3 4 1 0 . 5 5 5 O . O 5 6 0 . 4 7 4 0 . 6 2 1 Carryover (bu.) 3 7 0 , 6 6 7 1 0 0 , 7 7 8 2 9 6 , 3 3 3 4 9 , 8 8 9 3 4 6 , 4 4 4 4 5 7 , 5 5 6 Farm Storage Capacity 9 8 3 , 4 7 7 2 0 8 , 7 3 3 4 6 4 , 2 3 1 1 3 2 , 3 5 7 7 6 5 , 5 1 8 7 1 2 , 4 1 7 Total Farm Storage Costs ($) 3 4 , 8 0 3 7 , 5 7 9 1 6 , 8 2 1 4 , 6 4 0 2 5 , 9 4 8 2 5 , 1 3 6 Truck Capacity (bu.) 1 5 0 1 5 0 1 5 0 1 5 0 1 5 0 1 5 0 Average Distance (mi.) 1 2 . 5 3 . 9 6 . 8 3 . 3 1 0 . 7 9 . 4 Cost of Hauling (cents/bu.mi.)^ . 3 9 9 . 4 3 3 . 4 4 1 . 5 0 6 . 4 1 0 . 4 2 3 D. Zasada and 0 m P. Tangri, An Analysis of Factors A f f e c t i n g the Costs of Handling and  Storing Grain i n Manitoba Country Elevators. University of Manitoba, Department of Agr i -c u l t u r a l Economics, Research Report No. 1 3 (Winnipeg: July, 1 9 6 7 ) , p . 9 9 . K^..B, Young, An Analysis of the Cost of Assembling Grain by Farm Trucks i n Manitoba. Univer s i t y of Manitoba, Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics, Research Report No. 11 (Winnipeg: October, 1 9 6 6 ) , p . 9 6 . 176 The handling-to-capacity r a t i o s are quite small ranging from 0.614 at Hythe to 1.860 at Huallen. These r a t i o s provide a good summary s t a t i s t i c to describe the volume re l a t i o n s h i p of country elevators, as the average cost per bushel of grain shipped declines i n close corres-pondence with an increase of t h i s r a t i o . The per bushel cost was determined f o r the three cost estimates by using the number of bushels shipped. The per bushel cost of the country elevators range from a low of 12.40 cents at Huallen to 14.58 cents at Hythe with an average of 14.21 cents f o r the six areas. The second es-timate of elevator cost was greater per bushel and gave more weight to the average size of elevator, that i s , a smaller elevator had a greater per bushel cost than a large elevator ceterus paribus unless the volume of grain shipped per bushel capacity was greater i n the small ele-vator. The t h i r d estimate of elevator cost was s i m i l a r to the second estimate i n placing emphasis on the average size of elevator. The standard deviations from average cost were lower f o r the l a t t e r two cost estimates. The hauling costs were proportional to the average distance of the farmers from the country elevator point,. The costs ranged from 4.96 cents per bushel at Grande P r a i r i e to 1.67 cents at Huallen. Farm storage costs were composed l a r g e l y of f i x e d costs, and exhibited l i t t l e v a r i a t i o n of average cost per 177 year. The costs ranged from 4.20 cents per bushel at Hythe to 5 »74 cents at Grande P r a i r i e . Farm handling costs showed a great deal of variance f o r average costs, l a r g e l y depending upon the amount of grain which could be shipped d i r e c t l y from f i e l d to ele-vator. The cost per bushel ranged from 1.05 to 1.77 at Grande P r a i r i e and Huallen respectively. Total cost of grain assembly ranged from 20.42 cents per bushel at Huallen to 26.31 cents at Grande P r a i r i e . The average cost i n cents per bushel f o r a l l s i x regions was equal to elevator costs 14.21, hauling 3.89, farm storage 4.90, farm handling 1.37, and t o t a l 24.38. The percentage of the o v e r a l l cost f o r the four separate costs were elevator 58.3, hauling 16.0, farm storage 20.1, and farm handling 5.6 percent. The t o t a l cost of the assembly of grain f o r the s i x areas was 9,212,025 d o l l a r s i n the f i f t e e n year time span used or 618,935 d o l l a r s per year. These t o t a l costs provide the basis f o r comparison with alternative configurations. TABLE XL SUMMARY OF THE AVERAGES (15 YEARS) OBTAINED FOR THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT l ) a Grande Grain shipments (bus.) Standard Deviation (bus.) Handling/Capacity Standard Deviation Elevator Cost 1 ( $ ) S.D. («) Elevator Cost 2 (J>) S.D. (J5) Elevator Cost 3 ( $ ) S.D. Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Cost ($) S.D. ($) Ground Storage Cost ($) S - D -Farm Handling Cost ($) S.D. ($) Total Cost (S) S.D. (ii) ($) (J) ($ ) P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 635400 172400 409900 111900 542500 643700 I65OOO 44770 106400 29060 138100 168400 1 . 0 2 7 1 . 3 4 3 1.167 1.860 1.156 .614 .246 . 3 2 2 .282 .456 . 2 7 6 .804 92540 23760 56320 13880 77220 94320 12360 2 5 6 6 6750 1 0 1 5 9593 12340 98170 29330 63330 116680 86550 108700 3 9 3 1 1067 2536 692 3346 4014 100300 29900 58880 18700 80170 9 9 9 0 0 12610 1629 5385 738 6811 10640 31520 3231 12230 1857 23600 25620 7026 720 2762 4 3 2 5260 5764 36470 8284 18540 5136 27910 27200 7 4 7 2 1 3 5 1 2 137 6 4 8 765 6675 2819 6 8 8 7 1982 7861 8273 2988 853 2075 574 2 5 9 3 3059 167200 38100 93980 22860 136600 155400 22700 4233 11800 2 0 4 3 17700 21970 C a l c u l a t e d from the simulation model. 05. TABLE XLI ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT l ) a Grade P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge Hythe Total 2 5 8 6 0 0 0 6 1 4 3 5 0 0 1 6 7 3 5 0 0 8 1 3 7 5 0 0 9 7 0 3 5 0 0 3 7 7 3 5 0 0 0 3 5 6 4 0 0 . 8 4 4 8 0 0 2 0 8 2 0 0 1 1 5 8 3 0 0 1 4 1 4 3 0 0 5 3 7 0 6 0 0 4 3 9 9 5 0 9 4 9 9 5 0 2 5 0 2 0 0 1 2 9 8 2 5 0 1 6 3 0 5 0 0 6 0 4 1 4 1 0 4 4 8 5 0 0 8 3 3 2 0 0 2 8 0 5 0 0 1 2 0 2 5 5 0 1 4 9 8 5 0 0 5 8 1 7 7 5 0 4 8 4 6 5 1 8 3 4 5 0 , 2 7 8 5 5 3 5 4 0 0 0 3 8 4 3 0 0 1 4 7 0 8 7 0 1 2 4 2 6 0 2 7 8 1 0 0 7 7 0 4 0 4 1 8 6 5 0 4 0 8 0 0 0 1 8 5 3 1 0 0 4 2 2 8 5 1 0 3 3 0 5 2 9 7 3 0 1 1 7 9 1 5 1 2 4 0 9 5 5 1 7 4 5 5 5 7 1 4 1 0 1 4 0 9 6 5 5 3 4 2 3 2 5 2 0 4 8 3 6 5 2 3 3 H 9 5 9 2 1 2 0 2 5 Grain shipment (bus,) ($) Elevator cost 1 Elevator cost 2 Elevator cost 3 Hauling cost Farm storage cost Ground storage cost (8 ) Farm handling cost (8) Total ($) ( $ ) ( H ) 9531000 1388100 H72550 1504500 472300 547050 100125 2508075 Calculated from the simulation model. TABLE XLII COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT l ) a Grande Beaver-Prairie Dimsdale Wembley Huallen lodge Hythe Total i i i i t % Elevator cost 1 1 4 . 5 6 1 3 . 7 8 1 3 . 7 4 1 2 . 4 0 1 4 . 2 3 1 4 . 5 8 1 4 . 2 1 5 8 . 3 Elevator cost 2 1 5 . 4 5 1 7 . 0 1 1 5 . 4 5 1 4 . 9 1 1 5 . 9 5 1 6.80 1 5 . 9 9 Elevator cost 3 1 5 . 7 9 1 7 . 3 4 1 4 . 3 6 1 6 . 7 1 1 4 . 7 8 1 5 . 4 4 1 5 . 4 0 Hauling cost 4 . 9 6 1 . 8 7 2 . 9 8 1 . 6 7 4 . 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 . 8 9 16.0 Farm storage.cost 5 . 7 4 4 . 8 1 4 , 5 2 4 . 5 9 5 . H 4 . 2 0 4 . 9 0 2 0 . 1 Ground storage cost 1 . 6 4 1 . 6 8 Farm handling cost 1 . 0 5 . 1 . 7 7 1 . 4 5 1 . 2 8 1 . 3 7 5 . 6 Total cost 2 6 . 3 1 2 2 . 1 0 2 2 . 9 3 2 0 . 4 2 2 5 . 1 8 2 4 . 0 3 2 4 . 3 8 1 0 0 . 0 C a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . 181 Experiment Two. The variable changed i n t h i s run was elevator capacity. The smallest elevator was eliminated from each point giving a new t o t a l capacity of 507,500, 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 , 2 9 4 , 0 0 0 , 3 0 , 0 0 0 , 4 0 3 , 0 0 0 , and 5 6 3 , 0 0 0 f o r Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, Beaverlodge, and Hythe respectively with average elevator capacities of 1 6 9 , 1 6 7 , 5 0 , 0 0 0 , 9 8 , 0 0 0 , 3 0 , 0 0 0 , 4 0 3 , 0 0 0 , and 5 6 3 , 0 0 0 bushels. Carry-over values were recalculated using 0 . 6 0 0 3 , 0 . 7 8 7 3 , 0 . 8 4 4 3 , O . 8 3 1 5 , 0 . 7 4 3 3 , and 0.7118 bushels carryover per bushel capacity f o r the s i x areas. The r e s u l t s from t h i s new configuration are presented i n Tables XLIII, XLIV and XLV. The per bushel cost f o r the elevator decreased i n each area with Dimsdale and Huallen having the greatest reduction i n cost l a r g e l y due to an increased handling-to-capacity r a t i o whereas the other points showed a cost reduction due to a s l i g h t increase i n both handling-to-capacity r a t i o and average size of elevator. The hauling costs remained the same as i n experiment one and farm storage costs increased s l i g h t l y . The farm handling costs increased f o r each point, a r e f l e c t i o n of the smaller amount of grain being shipped d i r e c t l y to the elevator. The percentages of the components forming t o t a l cost of the s i x areas indicate the nature of the change. Elevator costs decrease while hauling costs, farm storage costs, and farm handling costs increase i n per-centage form. The t o t a l cost f o r the f i f t e e n years was 8 , 6 7 3 , 0 3 0 d o l l a r s , 5 3 8 , 9 9 5 d o l l a r s l e s s than the estimated costs of experiment one. TABLE XLIII SUMMARY OF THE AVERAGES (15 YEARS) OBTAINED FOR THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 2 ) a Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 635400 172400 409900 111900 542500 648700 I 6 5 O O O 44770 106400 29060 138100 168400 1.249 1.719 1.391 3.720 1.339 1.149 .298 .416 .337 .935 .312 .275 83 5 80 20170 50790 7049 69150 8836O 9033 1396 4735 318 6894 10480 82320 22540 53340 9673 75890 96150 3931 1067 2536 692 3346 4014 92310 22560 51630 10040 71890 92130 10440 1282 4540 202 5942 9649 31520 3231 12230 1857 23600 25620 7026 720 2762 432 5260 5764 36730 8318 18590 5160 28000 27350 747 214 511 135 649 780 7691 2698 7085 2078 8219 8856 2988 873 2110 592 2598 3119 159500 34690 88690 16140 129000 150200 19250 3007 9805 1060 14900 19570 Grain shipments (bus.) Standard Deviation (bus, Handling/Capacity Standard Deviation Elevator Cost 1 ($) S.D. Elevator Cost 2 S.D. Elevator Cost 3 S.D. Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Cost S.D. ) ( x) («) ( i ) ( « ) (J) ( « ) ($ ) ($) (  Ground Storage Cost($) S.D. ($) Farm Handling Cost($) S.D. Total Cost S.D. Calculated from the simulation model. H1 CQ. TABLE XLIV ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 2 ) a Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge Hythe Total 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 2 5 8 6 0 0 0 6148500 I 6 7 8 5 O O 8 1 3 7 5 0 0 9703500 37785000 1 2 5 3 7 0 0 3 0 2 5 5 0 7 6 1 8 5 0 1 0 5 7 3 5 1 0 3 7 2 5 0 1 3 2 5 4 0 0 4786485 1234800 3 3 8 1 0 0 800100 145095 1138350 1 4 4 2 2 5 0 5098695 I 3 8 4 6 5 O 338400 7 7 4 4 5 0 150600 1 0 7 8 3 5 0 .1381950 3 8 6 2 2 1 5 4 7 2 8 0 0 4 8 4 6 5 183450 27855 3 5 4 0 0 0 384300 1470870 550950 1 2 4 7 7 0 278850 7 7 4 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 2 5 0 1862220 115365 44520 1 0 6 2 7 5 3 1 1 7 0 1 2 3 2 8 5 1 3 2 8 4 0 553455 2392815 5 2 0 3 0 5 1330425 2 4 2 1 6 0 1934535 2252790 8 6 7 3 0 3 0 Grain shipment (bus.) Elevator cost 1 Elevator cost 2 Elevator cost 3 Hauling cost Farm storage cost Ground storage cost($) Farm handling cost ( Total ($) a Calculated from the simulation model,, 03. TABLE XLV COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT 2 ) a Grande P r a i r i e i Dimsdale i Wembley I Huallen i Beaver-lodge Hythe i Total i % Elevator cost 1 1 3 . 1 5 1 1 . 7 0 1 2 . 3 9 6 . 3 0 1 2 . 7 5 1 3 . 6 6 1 2 . 6 7 5 5 . 1 Elevator cost 2 1 2 . 9 7 1 3 . 0 7 1 3 . 0 1 8 . 6 4 1 3 . 9 9 1 4 . 8 6 1 3 . 4 9 Elevator cost 3 1 4 . 5 3 1 3 . 0 9 1 2 . 6 0 8 . 9 7 1 3 . 2 5 1 4 . 2 4 1 0 . 2 2 Hauling cost 4 . 9 6 1 . 8 7 2 . 9 8 1.66 4 . 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 . 8 9 1 7 . 0 Farm storage cost 5 . 7 8 4.82 4 . 5 4 4 . 6 1 5 . 1 6 4 . 2 3 4 . 9 3 2 1 . 5 Ground storage cost Farm handling cost 1 . 2 1 1 . 7 2 1 . 7 3 1.36 1 . 5 2 1 . 3 7 1 . 4 6 6 . 4 Total cost 2 5 . 1 1 2 0 . 1 2 2 1 . 6 4 1 4 . 4 3 2 3 . 7 7 2 3 . 2 2 2 2 . 9 5 Calculated from the simulation model. (-1 00-1 8 5 Experiment Three. Elevator capacity was changed by removing an elevator from each point with the exception of Huallen which remains with one elevator. The new t o t a l capacity was 3 7 1 , 0 0 0 , 6 0 , 0 0 0 , 2 0 3 , 0 0 0 , 3 3 6 , 0 0 0 , and 4 7 6 , 0 0 0 bushels at Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Beaverlodge, and Hythe respectively with an average capacity of 185,500, 6 0 , 0 0 0 , 1 0 1 , 5 0 0 , 8 4 , 0 0 0 , and 1 1 9 , 0 0 0 bushels. Carryover for each point was recalculated using the same r a t i o as i n experiment two. The re s u l t s from t h i s alternative configura-t i o n are presented i n Tables XLVI, XLVII, and XLVIII. The elevator cost on a per bushel basis declines i n a l l f i v e areas although the cost f o r Beaverlodge and Hythe did not decline as rapidly as Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, and Wembley. The two estimated equations of elevator cost derived i n t h i s study gave higher costs per bushel than did the equation derived f o r Manitoba elevators, except f o r the second e s t i -mated cost f o r Grande P r a i r i e . Again, the second equation showed the influence of size by estimating a lower per bushel cost f o r large elevators and the t h i r d equation placed greater emphasis on the volume of grain handled, although both the increased size and the handling-to-capacity provide the lower costs. The farm storage cost on the per bushel basis increased s l i g h t l y due to the addit i o n a l use of farm bins, as does the farm handling cost increase due to the reduction of elevator space, f o r c i n g the farmer to use farm bin storage. The t o t a l per bushel cost varies 186 from 14.43 at H u a l l e n to 22.74 at Grande P r a i r i e . The o v e r a l l cos t f o r the s i x areas combined i s 20.88 cents per b u s h e l w i t h the percentage o f t o t a l cos t d e c r e a s i n g f o r the e l e v a t o r a n d , correspondingly, i n c r e a s i n g f o r the r e m a i n i n g c o s t c a t e g o r i e s . The cos t r e d u c t i o n from the c u r r e n t c o n -f i g u r a t i o n i s 1,322,415 d o l l a r s f o r the t ime p e r i o d c o n s i d e r e d . TABLE XLVI SUMMARY OF THE AVERAGES (15 YEARS) OBTAINED FOR THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 3 ) & Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 635400 172400 409900 111900 542500 648700 I65OOO 44770 106400 29060 138100 168400 1.709 2.867 2.081 3.720 1.606 1.359 .409 .710 .539 .935 .385 .326 66920 11940 36160 7049 61050 80230 3795 1097 1795 318 4215 63540 14430 39590 9673 64790 32840 3932 1067 2536 692 3346 4014 76730 13130 33710 10040 62610 83090 5079 541 1829 202 4564 7949 31520 3231 12230 1857 23600 25620 7026 720 2762 432 5260 2764 759 220 499 135 647 802 8992 3147 7410 2078 8632 9452 3037 896 2120 592 2628 3208 144500 26690 74470 16140 121400 142800 13260 856 5021 1060 12000 16640 Grain shipments (bus.) Standard D e v i a t i o n (bus.) Handling/Capacity Standard D e v i a t i o n E l e v a t o r Cost 1 S.D. E l e v a t o r Cost 2 S.D. E l e v a t o r Cost 3 S.D. Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Cost S.D. Ground Storage Cost S.D. Farm Handling Cost S.D. T o t a l Cost S.D. ($) ($) (?) ($) ($ ) ($) ( I ) ( « ) ($) C a l c u l a t e d from the s i m u l a t i o n data -0 TABLE XLVII ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 3 ) a Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge Hythe Total 9531000 2586000 6148500 1678500 8137500 9703500 37785000 1003800 179100 542400 105735 915750 1203450 3950235 953100 216450 593850 145095 971850 124260 4122945 1150950 196950 580650 150600 939150 1246350 4264650 472800 48465 183450 27855 354000 384300 1470870 555750 125490 280050 77400 421650 412500 1872840 134880 47205 111150 31170 129480 141780 595665 2167230 400260 1119050 242160 1820880 2142030 7889610 Grain shipment (bus. Elevator cost 1 Elevator cost 2 Elevator cost 3 Hauling cost Farm storage cost Ground storage cost( Farm handling cost ( Total ( ($) ($) H) $) Calculated from the simulation model. h - ' CO-oa TABLE XLVIII COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT 3 ) a Grande P r a i r i e t Dimsdale i Wembley i Huallen Beaver-lodge i Hythe t Total Elevator cost 1 1 0 . 5 3 6 . 9 3 8 . 8 2 6 . 3 0 1 1 . 2 5 1 2 . 4 0 1 0 . 4 5 5 0 . 0 Elevator cost 2 1 0 . 0 0 8 . 3 7 9 . 6 6 8 . 6 4 1 1 . 9 4 1 2 . 8 1 1 0 . 9 1 Elevator cost 3 1 2 . 0 8 7 . 6 2 9 . 4 4 8 . 9 7 1 1 . 5 4 1 2 . 8 4 1 1 . 2 9 Hauling cost 4 . 9 6 1 . 8 7 2 . 9 8 1 . 6 6 4 . 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 . 8 9 1 8 . 6 Farm storage cost 5 . 8 3 4 . # 5 4 . 5 5 4 . 6 1 5 . 1 8 4 . 2 5 4 . 9 6 2 3 . 8 Ground storage cost Farm handling cost 1 . 4 2 1 . 8 3 1 . 8 1 1 . 8 6 1 . 5 9 1 . 4 6 1 . 5 8 7 . 6 Total cost 2 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 4 8 1 8 . 1 7 1 4 . 4 3 2 2 . 3 8 2 2 . 0 8 2 0 . 8 8 Calculated from the simulation model. 190 Experiment Four. The change made i n t h i s experi-ment i s again, elevator capacity. Dimsdale, Wembley, and Huallen remained the same as i n experiment three, Grande P r a i r i e was changed to 280,000 bushels t o t a l capacity rather than to 234,000 bushels, the size of the largest elevator i n t h i s point. The reason was that the handling-to-capacity r a t i o which would resu l t would be greater than the obser-vations used i n estimating the equations. One elevator was removed from both Beaverlodge and Hythe so that the remain-ing t o t a l capacity was 271,000 and 384,000 bushels respec-t i v e l y with the average elevator capacity being 90,333 and 128,000 bushels. The new carryover values were again re-calculated. The re s u l t s of the experiment are presented i n Tables XLIX, L, and LI. The elevator cost on a per bushel basis declined f o r Grande P r a i r i e , Beaverlodge, and Hythe fo r a l l three equations. The hauling costs remain the same as i n experiment one, although farm storage and farm hand-l i n g costs increased due to the increased u t i l i z a t i o n of farm bins and l e s s d i r e c t hauls of grain from the f i e l d to elevator. The t o t a l cost on a per bushel basis ranged from 14.43 cents at Huallen to 20.54 cents at Beaverlodge with the o v e r a l l average f o r the six areas being 19.44 cents per bushel. Again, the percentage of t o t a l cost increased f o r hauling costs, farm storage costs, and farm handling costs and elevator cost decreased. The t o t a l combined cost f o r grain assembly f o r the f i f t e e n years was 7,343,565 d o l l a r s - -1,868,460 d o l l a r s l e s s than the current configuration. TABLE XLIX AVERAGES ( 1 5 YEARS) OBTAINED (EXPERIMENT 4 ) a Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley 6 3 5 4 0 0 1 7 2 4 0 0 4 0 9 9 0 0 I 6 5 O O O 4 4 7 7 0 1 0 6 4 0 0 2 . 2 6 3 2 . 8 6 7 2 . 0 8 1 . 5 4 0 . 7 1 0 . 5 3 9 5 0 2 3 0 1 1 9 4 0 3 6 1 6 0 3 6 6 5 1 0 9 7 1 7 9 5 4 9 7 9 0 1 4 4 3 0 3 9 5 9 0 3 9 3 2 1 0 6 7 2 5 3 6 6 7 1 3 0 1 3 1 3 0 3 8 7 1 0 1 1 1 7 0 5 4 1 1 8 2 9 3 1 5 2 0 3 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 0 7 0 2 6 7 2 0 2 7 6 2 3 7 2 7 0 3 3 6 6 1 3 6 7 0 7 6 3 2 1 0 4 9 9 9 8 8 2 3 1 4 7 7 4 1 0 3 0 5 2 8 9 6 2 1 2 0 1 2 8 9 0 0 2 6 6 8 0 7 4 4 7 0 8 1 8 2 8 5 6 5 0 2 1 Grain shipments (bus Standard Deviation ( Handling/Capacity Standard Deviation Elevator Cost 1 S.D. Elevator Cost 2 S.D. Elevator Cost 3 S.D. Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Cost S.D. Ground Storage Cost S.D. Farm Handling Cost S.D. Total Cost S.D. J bus.) $) $) i ) I ) $) « ) » ) «) J) «) «) «) «) i ) « ) $ ) C a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . FOR THE SIX AREAS Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 1 1 1 9 0 0 5 4 2 5 0 0 6 4 8 7 0 0 2 9 0 6 0 1 3 8 1 0 0 1 6 8 4 0 0 3.720 1 . 9 9 3 1 . 6 8 3 . 9 3 5 . 4 8 0 . 4 0 5 7 0 4 9 5 0 5 1 0 6 8 5 3 0 3 1 8 2 2 1 3 3 9 5 1 9 6 7 3 5 3 9 1 0 6 8 9 8 0 6 9 2 3 3 4 6 4 0 1 4 1 0 0 4 0 5 2 1 7 0 7 1 9 1 0 2 0 2 2 5 8 7 5 0 9 6 1 8 5 7 2 3 600 2 5 6 2 0 4 3 2 5 3 5 4 5 7 6 4 5 1 6 0 2 8 2 2 0 2 7 6 6 0 1 3 5 669 8 1 0 2 0 7 8 9 0 9 1 1 0 0 9 0 592 2 7 2 7 3 2 3 9 1 6 1 4 0 1 1 1 4 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 8 7 1 0 1 2 5 0 0 f—1 NO TABLE L ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 4 ) & G r a i n sh ipment ( b u s . E l e v a t o r c o s t 1 (S) E l e v a t o r c o s t 2 ('>) E l e v a t o r c o s t 3 ( < > ) H a u l i n g c o s t ('>) Farm s t o r a g e c o s t (8) Ground s t o r a g e c o s t ( l l ) Farm h a n d l i n g c o s t (8) T o t a l (? ) Grande B e a v e r -P r a i r i e D i m s d a l e Wembley H u a l l e n l o d g e Hythe 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 2 5 8 6 0 0 0 6 1 4 8 5 0 0 1 6 7 8 5 0 0 8 1 3 7 5 0 0 9 7 0 3 5 0 0 7 5 3 4 5 0 1 7 9 1 0 0 5 4 2 4 0 0 1 0 5 7 3 5 7 5 7 6 5 0 1 0 2 8 7 0 0 7 4 6 8 5 0 2 1 6 4 5 0 5 9 3 8 5 0 1 4 5 0 9 5 8 0 8 6 5 0 1 0 3 4 7 0 0 1 0 0 6 9 5 0 1 9 6 9 5 0 5 8 O 6 5 O 1 5 0 6 6 0 7 8 2 5 5 0 1 0 7 3 6 5 0 4 7 2 7 0 0 4 8 4 6 5 1 8 3 4 5 0 2 7 8 5 5 3 5 4 0 0 0 3 8 4 3 0 0 5 5 9 0 5 0 1 2 5 4 9 0 2 8 0 0 5 0 7 7 4 0 0 4 2 3 3 0 0 4 1 4 9 0 0 1 4 8 2 3 0 4 7 2 0 5 111150 3 1 7 0 0 1 3 6 3 6 5 1 5 1 3 5 0 1 9 3 3 5 3 0 4 0 0 2 6 0 1 1 1 7 0 5 0 2 4 2 1 6 0 1 6 7 1 3 1 5 1 9 7 9 1 5 0 T o t a l 37785000 3367035 3545595 3796350 1470870 1880190 625470 7343565 C a l c u l a t e d f rom t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . ro TABLE LI COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT 4 ) & Grande Beaver-P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen lodge i i Elevator cost 1 7 . 9 1 6 . 9 3 8 . 8 2 6 . 3 0 9 . 3 1 Elevator cost 2 7 , 8 4 8 . 3 7 9 . 6 6 3 . 6 4 9 . 9 4 Elevator cost 3 1 0 . 5 6 7 . 6 2 9 . 4 4 8 . 9 7 9 . 6 2 Hauling cost 4 . 9 6 1 . 8 7 2 . 9 3 1 . 6 6 Farm storage cost 5 . 8 7 4 . 8 5 4 , 5 5 4 . 6 l 5 . 2 0 Ground storage cost 1 . 5 6 1 . 8 3 Farm handling cost 1 . 8 1 1 . 8 6 1 . 6 8 Total cost 2 0 . 2 9 1 5 . 4 8 1 3 . 7 1 1 4 . - 4 3 2 0 . 5 4 Calculated from the simulation model. Hythe Total 1 0 . 6 0 8 . 9 1 4 5 . 3 1 0 . 6 6 Q J g 11.12 1 0 . 0 5 3 . 9 6 3 . 8 9 2 0 . 0 4 . 2 8 4 . 9 8 2 5 . 6 1 . 5 6 1 . 6 5 8 . 6 2 0 . 4 0 1 9 . 4 4 194 Experiment Five. This experiment concludes the changing of elevator capacities, as Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, and Huallen remain the same as i n experiment four. The t o t a l capacity at Beaverlodge and Hythe i s changed by simulating the removal of one elevator from each point, leaving two elevators per point with an average capacity of 98,000 and 137,000 bushels respectively. The t o t a l capacity was 196,000 and 274,000 bushels f o r the two points. Carryover was recalculated f o r these two points using the r a t i o s given f o r experiment two. Results of the computer run are presented i n Tables LII, LIII, and LIV. The ele-vator costs on a per bushel basis decreased to 6.23 cents at Beaverlodge and 7.45 cents at Hythe. The two remaining elevator cost estimates were higher as expected. The farm storage and farm handling costs are greater f o r t h i s run than f o r the current configuration (experiment one). The t o t a l per bushel cost f o r the s i x regions varies from 14.43 cents at Huallen to 20.29 cents at Grande P r a i r i e . The combined cost f o r the s i x areas was 18 . 0 3 cents per bushel which i s 6.35 cents less than i n experiment one or approxi-mately 2 6 per cent less than the current configuration. The t o t a l combined cost f o r the f i f t e e n years was 6,810,825 dol l a r s which i s 2,401,200 d o l l a r s l e s s than value estimated f o r the current configuration. The percentages are 41.3, 21.6, 27.7 and 9.4 percent f o r elevator, hauling, farm storage, and farm handling costs. TABLE LII SUMMARY OF THE AVERAGES (15 YEARS) OBTAINED FROM THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 5 ) a Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 635400 172400 409900 111900 542500 648700 I65OOO 44770 106400 29060 138100 168400 2.263 2.867 2.081 3.720 2 . 7 5 1 2.359 . 5 4 0 .710 .539 .935 .676 .563 50230 11940 36160 7049 33810 48130 3665 1097 1795 318 4 5 6 8 4096 49790 14430 39590 9673 4 1 9 3 0 53130 3932 1067 2536 692 3346 4014 67130 13130 38710 10040 3626O 52020 11170 541 1829 202 3980 4 5 5 0 31520 3231 1 2 2 3 0 1357 23600 25620 7026 720 2762 4 3 2 5354 5764 37270 8366 18670 5160 28320 27870 763 210 499 1 3 5 6 5 6 8 1 9 9882 3147 7410 2078 9 5 0 5 10950 3 0 5 2 896 2120 5 9 2 2758 3 3 1 0 128900 26690 74470 16140 95240 112600 8182 8 5 6 5 0 2 1 1060 4543 6410 Grain shipments (bu Standard Deviation Handling/Capacity Standard Deviation Elevator Cost 1 S.D. Elevator Cost 2 S.D. Elevator Cost 3 S.D. Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Cost S.D. Ground Storage Cost S.D. Farm Handling Cost S.D. Total Cost S.D. s.) (bus.) (?) $) ( i ) ($) ) ( $ ( ? ) (H) (?) (?) (« (9 (?) (H) (a) ( ? ) Calculated from the simulation model. t—1 TABLE LIII ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 5 ) a Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge Hythe Total 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 2586000 6 1 4 8 5 0 0 1 6 7 8 5 0 0 8 1 3 7 5 0 0 9 7 0 3 5 0 0 3 7 7 8 5 0 0 0 7 5 3 4 5 0 1 7 9 1 0 0 5 4 2 4 0 0 1 0 5 7 3 5 5 0 7 1 5 0 7 2 2 7 0 0 2 8 1 0 5 3 5 7 4 6 8 5 0 2 1 6 4 5 0 593850 1 4 5 0 9 5 6 2 8 9 5 0 7 9 6 9 5 0 3 1 2 8 1 4 5 1 0 0 6 9 5 0 1 9 6 9 5 0 5 8 0 6 5 0 150600 5 4 3 9 0 0 7 8 0 3 0 0 3 2 5 9 3 5 0 472800 48465 1 8 3 4 5 0 2 7 3 5 5 3 5 4 0 0 0 3 3 4 3 0 0 1 4 7 0 8 7 0 5 5 9 0 5 0 1 2 5 4 9 0 2 8 0 0 5 0 7 7 4 0 0 4 2 4 8 0 0 4 1 8 0 5 0 1 8 8 4 8 4 0 148230 4 7 2 0 5 1 1 1 1 5 0 3 1 1 7 0 1 4 2 5 7 5 1 6 4 2 5 0 6 4 4 5 8 0 1 9 3 3 5 3 0 4 0 0 2 6 0 1 1 1 7 0 5 0 2 4 2 1 6 0 1 4 2 8 5 2 5 1 6 8 9 3 0 0 6 8 1 0 8 2 5 Grain shipment (bus.) Elevator cost 1 (8) Elevator cost 2 (8) Elevator cost 3 (8) Hauling cost (8) Farm storage cost (8) Ground storage cost(8) Farm handling cost (8) Total ($) Calculated from the simulation model. ON TABLE LIV COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT 5 ) a Elevator cost 1 Elevator cost 2 Elevator cost 3 Hauling cost Farm storage cost Ground storage cost Farm handling cost Total cost Grande Beaver-P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen lodge Hythe i r i $ i $ Total 7 . 9 1 6.93 8.82 6 . 3 0 6 . 2 3 7.45 7.44 41.3 7.84 8.37 9.66 8.64 7.73 8.21 8 . 2 8 1 0 . 5 6 7.62 9.44 8.97 6.68 3 . 0 4 8.63 4.96 1.87 2.98 1.66 4.35 3.96 3.89 21.6 5.87 4.#5 4.55 4.61 5.22 4.31 4.99 27.7 1 . 5 6 1.83 1 . 3 1 1.36 1.75 1.69 1.71 9.4 20.29 1 5 . 4 8 18.71 14.43 17.55 1 7 . 4 1 1 8 . 0 3 Calculated from the simulation model. 1 9 8 Experiment Six. In t h i s run, farm storage i s re-duced to 7 5 per cent of the o r i g i n a l farm storage capacity, while elevator capacities, haul costs, and farm handling costs remain the same as i n experiment f i v e . The new effec-t i v e capacity, that i s , t o t a l bin space minus farm carry-over, was 6 7 9 , 6 9 5 , 1 4 2 , 4 8 0 , 3 1 7 , 5 9 3 , 9 1 , 9 2 0 , 5 3 9 , 0 7 5 , and 493,160 bushels f o r the areas of Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, Beaverlodge, and Hythe respectively with the t o t a l cost being 2 6 , 1 0 2 , 5 , 6 8 5 , 1 2 , 6 0 6 , 1 9 , 4 5 1 , and 1 8 , 8 3 2 d o l l a r s f o r the same areas. The r e s u l t s of run s i x are presented i n Tables LV, LVI, and LVII. The difference between run f i v e and run si x was 1.12 cents per bushel for the combined per bushel cost of the six areas. There was a small amount of ground storage f o r the areas of Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, and Hythe although the per bushel cost was small being .03 cents to . 0 5 cents, not enough to increase or equal t o t a l per bushel cost i n the areas. The t o t a l cost i n each area ranges from 13.39 cents per bushel at Huallen to 1 8 . 9 2 cents at Grande P r a i r i e . The t o t a l saving f o r the f i f t e e n years was 2,831,475 d o l l a r s compared to experiment one, and 4 3 0 , 2 7 5 d o l l a r s less than run f i v e . TABLE LV Grain shipments (bus.) Standard Deviation (bus Handling/Capacity Standard Deviation Cost 1 Elevator S.D. Elevator Cost 2 S.D. Elevator Cost 3 S.D. • Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Cost S.D. Ground Storage Cost S.D. Farm Handling Cost S.D. Total Cost S.D. $ ) $ ) I) I) I) 8) I) $) $) $) $) $) AVERAGES ( 1 5 YEARS) OBTAINED FOR THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 6 ) a Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 635400 172400 409900 111900 542500 648700 165000 44770 106400 29060 138100 168400 2 . 2 6 2 2.867 2.081 3.720 2 . 7 5 1 2.359 .541 .710 .539 .935 .676 .568 50230 11940 36160 7049 33810 48180 3665 1097 1795 318 4568 4096 49790 14430 39590 9 6 7 3 41930 53130 3932 1067 2536 6 9 2 3346 4014 6 7 1 3 0 13130 38710 110040 3 6 2 6 O 52020 11170 5 4 1 1829 202 3930 4 5 5 0 31520 3231 12230 1357 2 3 6 0 0 2 5 6 2 0 7 0 2 6 720 2 7 6 2 432 5354 5764 28570 6427 14310 3 9 6 5 21830 21400 763 140 2 8 3 8 4 6 5 6 5 5 0 49 194 40 186 3147 468 2078 487 9882 3147 7410 2078 9 5 0 5 1 0 9 5 0 3 0 5 2 8 9 6 2120 5 9 2 2758 3 3 1 0 120200 24800 70300 1 4 9 9 0 88740 106300 8182 8 6 4 5 1 0 2 1080 4543 6 6 8 5 C a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . TABLE LVI ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 6 ) a Grain shipment (bus.) Elevator cost 1 (3) Elevator cost 2 ($) Elevator cost 3 Hauling cost Farm storage cost Ground storage cost ( 8 ) Farm handling cost (.5) Total ($) ($) ($) ($) Grande Prairie5 Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-' lodge Hythe Total 9531000 753450 746850 10069500 472800 428550 148230 1803030 2586000 179100 216450 196950 48465 96405 735 47205 371910 6148500 1678500 8137500 542400 105735 507150 593850 145095 628950 580650 150600 543900 183450 27855 354000 214650 59475 327450 2910 600 111150 31170 142575 1054560 224835 1331175 9703500 722700 796950 780300 384300 321000 2790 16A-250 1595040 37785000 2810535 3128145 3259350 1470870 1447530 7305 644580 6380550 Calculated from the simulation model. ro o o TABLE LVII COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT 6 ) & Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale r Wembley r Huallen r Beaver-lodge Hythe t Total r % Elevator cost 1 7 . 9 1 6 . 9 3 8 . 8 2 6.30 6 . 2 3 7 . 4 5 7 . 4 4 4 4 . 0 Elevator cost 2 7 . 8 4 8 . 3 7 9 . 6 6 8 . 6 4 7 . 7 3 8 . 2 1 8.23 Elevator cost 3 1 0 . 5 6 7 . 6 2 9 . 4 4 8 . 9 7 6 . 6 8 8 . 0 4 8 . 6 3 Hauling cost 4 . 9 6 1 . 8 7 2 . 9 8 1 . 6 6 4 . 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 . 8 9 2 3 . 0 Farm storage cost 4 . 5 0 3 . 7 3 3 . 4 9 3 . 5 4 4 . 0 2 3 . 3 1 3 . 8 3 2 2 . 7 Ground storage cost . 0 3 . 0 5 . 0 4 . 0 3 . 0 2 0 . 1 Farm handling cost 1 . 5 6 1 . 8 3 1 . 8 1 1 . 8 6 1 . 7 5 1 . 6 9 1 . 7 1 1 0 . 2 Total cost 1 8 . 9 2 1 4 . 3 3 1 7 . 1 5 1 3 . 3 9 1 6 . 3 6 1 6 . 4 4 1 6 . 9 1 Calculated from the simulation model. o r-1 2 0 2 Experiment Seven. Two variables were changed i n t h i s computer run. Farm bin storage capacity was halved while farm truck capacity was increased to 500 bushels f o r each point. The new e f f e c t i v e farm storage capacity i s 3 7 6 , 1 1 3 , 7 6 , 2 2 8 , 1 7 0 , 9 9 5 , 5 1 , 4 8 3 , 3 1 2 , 6 3 2 , a n d 2 7 3 , 9 0 4 bushels with the yearly f i x e d cost assessed at 17,385, 3 , 7 9 6 , 8 , 4 0 1 , 2 , 3 1 7 , 1 2 , 3 9 5 , and 1 2 , 5 6 1 d o l l a r s for Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, Beaverlodge, and Hythe respectively. The hauling cost becomes 0 . 1 7 2 , 0 . 2 0 9 , 0 . 1 9 1 , 0 . 2 1 9 , 0 . 1 7 7 , and O . I 8 3 cents per bushel mile f o r ~~~ the areas as l i s t e d above. The r e s u l t s of run seven are presented i n Tables LVIII, LIX, and LX. The per bushel cost f o r the six regions combined shows a decrease of 3.15 cents from that of experi-ment s i x and a decrease of 10.62 cents from that of experi-ment one, almost one half of the cost. Ground storage costs increased but did not increase to the extent as to raise the combined cost of farm storage and ground storage above that of the farm storage costs of experiment one. The hauling costs were sub s t a n t i a l l y reduced on the aver-age cost per bushel f o r the region as a whole, from 4.03 t o 1 . 6 8 cents. The t o t a l cost of 5 , 1 9 7 , 5 3 0 d o l l a r s i s 4,014,495 d o l l a r s less than that of experiment one. SUMMARY OF THE AVERAGES Grain shipments (bus.) Standard Deviation (bus.) Handling/Capacity Standard Deviation Elevator Cost 1 ( $ S.D. (J5 Elevator Cost 2 (<5 S.D. (J5 Elevator Cost 3 S.D. (J5 Hauling Cost (55 S.D. ($ Farm Storage Cost (55 S.D. (il Ground Storage Cost (S S.D. (S Farm Handling Cost ($ S.D. (S Total Cost (S S.D. ($ Grande P r a i r i e 6 3 5 4 0 0 1 6 5 0 0 0 2 . 2 6 2 . 5 4 1 5 0 2 3 0 3 6 6 5 4 9 7 9 0 3 9 3 2 6 7 1 3 0 1 1 1 7 0 . 1 3 5 9 0 3 0 2 8 1 9 5 4 0 3 4 3 5 5 4 1 2 0 3 9 8 8 2 3 0 5 2 9 3 8 0 0 4 6 9 4 Calculated from the simulation model. TABLE LVIII 15 YEARS) OBTAINED FOR THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 7) & Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 1 7 2 4 0 0 4 0 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 9 0 0 5 4 2 5 0 0 6 4 8 7 0 0 4 4 7 7 0 1 0 6 4 0 0 2 9 0 6 0 1 3 8 1 0 0 1 6 8 4 0 0 2 . 8 6 7 2 . 0 8 1 3 . 7 2 0 2 . 7 5 1 2 . 3 5 9 . 7 1 0 . 5 3 9 . 9 3 5 . 6 7 6 . 5 6 8 1 1 9 4 0 3 6 1 6 0 7 0 4 9 3 3 8 1 0 4 8 1 8 0 1 0 9 7 1 7 9 5 3 1 8 4 5 6 8 4 0 9 6 1 4 4 3 0 3 9 5 4 0 9 6 7 3 4 1 9 3 0 5 3 1 3 0 1 0 6 7 2 5 3 6 6 9 2 3 3 4 6 4 0 1 4 1 3 1 3 0 3 8 7 1 0 1 0 0 4 0 3 6 2 6 O 5 2 0 2 0 5 4 1 1 8 2 9 2 0 2 3 9 8 0 4 5 5 0 1 3 9 8 5 2 9 6 8 0 4 1 0 1 9 0 1 1 0 8 0 3 3 2 1 2 5 2 1 9 6 2 3 7 9 2 4 9 3 4 2 5 6 9 4 2 6 2 6 2 5 1 4 7 6 0 1 4 2 6 0 2 9 4 9 2 1 1 1 7 8 5 1 0 4 7 2 5 5 9 6 7 0 1 0 9 3 3 0 1 3 1 1 8 9 2 9 0 3 7 6 0 1 8 7 0 3 8 5 3 3 1 4 7 7 4 1 0 2 0 7 8 2 3 6 0 0 3 0 4 2 0 8 9 6 2 1 2 0 5 9 2 5 3 5 4 1 7 8 9 0 2 1 7 9 0 6 O 8 5 O 1 3 2 3 0 6 9 3 6 0 3 7 4 8 0 1 3 2 6 5 4 9 6 1 4 1 8 2 5 5 3 5 8 2 2 ro o TABLE LIX ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 7 ) 3 Grain shipment (bus. Elevator cost 1 ( & ) Elevator cost 2 ( 8 ) Elevator cost 3 ( $ ) Hauling cost ( Farm storage cost ( Ground storage cost( Farm handling cost ( Total ( Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge $ ) I) Hythe Total 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 2 5 8 6 0 0 0 61485OO I 6 7 8 5 O O 8 1 3 7 5 0 0 9 7 0 3 5 0 0 733450 1 7 9 1 0 0 5 4 2 4 0 0 105735 5 0 7 1 5 0 7 2 2 7 0 0 7 4 6 8 5 0 2 1 6 4 5 0 593850 1 4 5 0 9 5 6 2 8 9 5 0 7 9 6 9 5 0 1 0 0 6 9 5 0 1 9 6 9 5 0 5 8 O 6 5 O 1 5 0 6 6 0 5 4 3 9 0 0 7 3 0 3 0 0 203850 2 0 9 7 0 7 9 4 4 0 1 2 0 6 0 I 5 2 8 5 O 1 6 6 2 0 0 2 9 3 1 0 0 6 3 8 4 0 1 4 1 3 9 0 39375 2 2 1 4 0 0 2 1 3 9 0 0 8310 1 5 7 0 5 38385 I O O 5 0 1 6 3 9 5 4 5 1 9 5 148230 4 7 2 0 5 111150 3 1 1 7 0 142575 I 6 4 2 5 O 1 4 0 6 9 4 0 3 2 6 8 2 0 9 1 2 7 6 5 1 9 8 3 9 0 1 0 4 0 3 7 0 1 3 1 2 2 4 5 3 7 7 8 5 0 0 0 2 8 1 0 5 3 5 3 1 2 8 1 4 5 3 2 5 9 3 5 0 6 3 5 3 7 0 9 7 3 0 0 5 1 3 4 0 4 0 6 4 4 5 8 0 5 1 9 7 5 3 0 cl Calculated from the simulation model. ro o TABLE LX COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT 7)* Grande B e a v e r -P r a i r i e D i m s d a l e Wembley H u a l l e n l o d g e Hythe T o t a l r i r - t t % E l e v a t o r c o s t 1 7 . 9 1 6 . 9 3 8 . 8 2 6 . 3 0 6 . 2 3 7 . 4 5 7 . 4 4 5 4 . 1 E l e v a t o r c o s t 2 7 . 8 4 8 . 3 7 9 . 6 6 3 . 6 4 7 . 7 3 8 . 2 1 8 . 2 8 E l e v a t o r c o s t 3 1 0 . 5 6 7 . 6 2 9 . 4 4 8 . 9 7 6 . 6 8 3 . 0 4 8 . 6 3 H a u l i n g c o s t 2 . 1 4 . 8 1 1 . 2 9 . 7 2 1 . 8 8 1 . 7 1 1 . 6 3 1 2 . 2 Farm s t o r a g e c o s t 3 . 0 8 2 . 4 7 2 . 3 0 2 . 3 5 2 . 7 2 2 . 2 0 2 . 5 8 1 8 . 8 Ground s t o r a g e c o s t . 0 9 . 6 1 . 6 2 .60 . 2 0 . 4 7 . 3 5 2 . 5 Farm h a n d l i n g c o s t 1 . 5 6 I . 8 3 1 . 8 1 1 . 8 6 1 . 7 5 1 . 6 9 1 . 7 1 1 2 . 4 T o t a l c o s t 1 4 . 7 6 1 2 . 6 4 1 4 . 8 5 1 1 . 8 2 1 2 . 7 8 1 3 . 5 2 1 3 . 7 6 C a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . ro o 206 Experiment Eight. This experiment combines the two points of Wembley and Huallen. One elevator of 203,000 bushels was situated at Wembley, requiring that grain be hauled from the area of Huallen to Wembley, which means that the average distance to the elevator i s 7.76 miles f o r Huallen, r a i s i n g the cost per bushel mile to 0.431 cents. One other change i s made by assuming one elevator at the points of Beaverlodge and Hythe, although the t o t a l capacity remains the same. Otherwise, the experiment i s the same as run number si x , that i s , truck size i s 150 bushels f o r each point, elevator capacity remains the same at a l l points with the exception of Huallen, and farm storage capacity remains the same. The r e s u l t s are presented i n Tables LXI, LXII, and LXIII. Grande P r a i r i e remains the same i n run eight as i n run s i x , as does Dimsdale. The per bushel cost of elevators i s reduced from run s i x f o r Wembley and s l i g h t l y increased f o r Huallen, where the costs are prorated by the proportion of grain shipped from each area. The hauling cost i s also increased f o r Huallen, and thus the t o t a l per bushel cost was 1.84 cents greater than i n run s i x although 5.19 cents per bushel l e s s than i n experiment one due to use of a large elevator with adequate volume—more than compensating f o r the increased distance. The cost of grain assembly at Wembley declined due l a r g e l y to the increased use of the remaining elevator. Elevator costs decreased f o r a l l three estimates f o r Beaverlodge due to the increased 2 0 7 size of elevator. The f i r s t elevator cost estimate f o r Hythe did not change from experiment s i x as the f i r s t equation does not consider capacity e x p l i c i t l y , rather only through the handling-to-capacity r a t i o s . The l a t t e r two estimates, derived f o r Alberta elevators and discussed i n the previous chapter, do take capacity into account and reduce the per bushel cost. The o v e r a l l average cost per bushel f o r the region was 16.52 cents which i s less than f o r experiment s i x , and 7 . 8 6 cents l e s s than f o r experi-ment one--the estimate f o r the current configuration. The t o t a l cost f o r the region was 6,240,195 f o r the f i f t e e n years which i s 2,971,830 d o l l a r s l e s s than the current configuration, that i s , experiment one. SUMMARY OF THE AVERAGES Grande P r a i r i e Grain shipments (bu: Standard Deviation i Handling/Capacity Standard Deviation Elevator Cost 1 S.D. Elevator Cost 2 S.D. Elevator Cost 3 S.D. Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Cost S.D. Ground Storage Cost S.D. Farm Handling Cost S.D. Total Cost • S.D. ) 6 3 5 4 0 0 us.) 1 6 5 0 0 0 2 . 2 6 2 $)• . 5 4 1 5 0 2 3 0 $) 3 6 6 5 i ) 4 9 7 9 0 a) 3 9 3 2 $) 6 7 1 3 0 $) 1 1 1 7 0 3 1 5 2 0 ») 7 0 2 6 ») 2 8 5 7 0 $) 7 6 3 f ) $) $) 9 8 8 2 ») 3 0 5 2 ») 1 2 0 2 0 0 $) 8 1 8 2 Calculated from the simulation model. TABLE LXI 15 YEARS) OBTAINED FOR THE SIX AREAS EXPERIMENT 8 ) a Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 1 7 2 4 0 0 4 0 9 9 0 0 1 1 1 9 0 0 5 4 2 5 0 0 6 4 8 7 0 0 4 4 7 7 0 1 0 6 4 0 0 2 9 0 6 0 1 3 8 1 0 0 168400 2 . 3 6 7 2 . 5 0 3 . 6 1 2 2 . 7 5 1 2 . 3 5 7 . 7 1 0 . 6 7 5 . 5 6 8 9 5 2 1 2 6 7 4 0 7 2 9 6 3 2 0 2 0 4 8 1 8 0 1 6 6 9 3 4 4 9 9 4 0 4 9 8 5 4 0 9 6 1 4 4 3 0 3 0 3 0 0 8 2 6 8 3 8 2 4 0 4 9 4 4 0 1067 2 5 3 6 6 9 2 3 3 4 6 4 0 1 4 1 3 1 3 0 3 0 8 4 0 8 4 1 7 34380 6316O 5 1 4 7 3 6 3 2 0 0 9 11650 1 3 0 5 0 3 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 0 3 7 4 0 2 3 600 25620 7 6 7 2 8 9 1 8 9 1 5 5 1 0 5 7 6 4 6 4 2 6 1 4 3 1 0 3 9 6 1 2 1 8 3 0 2 1 4 0 0 1 4 0 2 8 3 9 1 6 5 6 5 5 0 4 9 1 8 6 123 4 8 7 3 1 4 7 7 4 1 0 2 0 4 0 9 5 0 5 1 0 9 5 0 8 9 6 2 1 2 0 5 3 5 2 7 5 8 3 3 1 0 2 4 7 9 0 6 0 6 9 0 1 7 0 4 0 8 6 9 6 0 IO63OO 3 4 9 2 2 5 6 7 2 7 4 1 1 6 6 4 3 9 ro o 05-TABLE LXII ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS a (EXPERIMENT 8 ) ' Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge Hythe Total Grain shipment (bus. Elevator cost 1 ( $ Elevator cost 2 ( $ Elevator cost 3 (8) Hauling cost (8) Farm storage cost (8). Ground storage cost (8 ) Farm handling cost (8) Total ($) 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 7 5 3 4 5 0 746850 1006950 472800 428550 148230 1303030 2586OOO 1 7 9 1 0 0 2 1 6 4 5 0 1 9 6 9 5 0 4 8 4 6 5 9 6 3 9 0 7 3 5 4 7 2 0 5 3 7 1 8 9 5 6 1 4 8 5 O O 4 0 1 1 0 0 4 5 4 5 0 0 4 6 2 6 O O 1 8 3 4 5 0 2 1 4 6 5 0 1 1 1 1 5 0 9 1 0 3 5 0 I 6 7 8 5 0 0 1 0 9 4 4 0 1 2 4 0 2 0 1 2 7 7 5 5 5 6 1 0 0 5 9 4 1 5 3 0 6 0 0 2 5 5 5 5 5 8137500 480300 573600 5 2 3 2 0 0 354OOO 327450 142575 1304325 9703500 722700 741600 9 4 7 4 0 0 384300 321000 2790 164250 1595040 37785000 2646090 2 8 5 7 0 2 0 3 2 6 4 3 5 5 1 4 9 9 H 5 1 4 4 7 4 5 5 3 5 2 5 6 4 4 0 1 0 6 2 4 0 1 9 5 Calculated from the simulation model. o TABLE LXIII COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT g ) a Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale $ Wembley t Huallen r Beaver-lodge t Hythe r Total r % Elevator cost 1 7.91 6 . 9 3 6 . 5 2 6 . 5 2 5 . 9 0 7 . 4 5 7 . 0 0 4 2 . 4 Elevator cost 2 7 . 8 4 8 . 3 9 7 . 3 9 7 . 3 9 7 . 0 5 7 . 6 4 7 . 5 6 Elevator cost 3 1 0 , 5 6 7 . 6 2 7 . 5 2 7 . 5 2 6 . 4 3 9 . 7 6 3 . 6 4 Hauling cost 4 . 9 6 1 . 8 7 2 . 9 8 3 . 3 4 4 . 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 . 9 7 2 4 . 0 Farm storage cost 4 . 5 0 3 . 7 3 3 . 4 9 3 . 5 4 4 . 0 2 3 . 3 1 3 . 3 3 2 3 . 2 Ground storage cost . 0 3 . 0 3 . 0 1 . 1 Farm handling cost 1 . 5 6 1 . 8 3 1 . 8 1 1 . 8 2 1 . 7 5 1 . 6 9 1 . 7 0 1 0 . 3 Total cost 1 3 . 9 2 1 4 . 3 3 1 4 . 8 1 1 5 . 2 3 1 6 . 0 3 1 6 . 4 4 1 6 . 5 2 Calculated from the simulation model. M r—1 O 2 1 1 Experiment Nine. The next step was to combine three points into one large one, leaving four relatively-large points. In t h i s experiment Dimsdale shipped a l l grain to Wembley. The average distance to the elevator point at Wembley was 8 . 7 5 miles and the cost per bushel-mile was . 4 2 3 cents with truck size remaining at 1 5 0 bushels. The elevator capacities i n a l l points remains the same as i n experiment eight, as do the remaining vari a b l e s . The r e s u l t s are presented i n Tables LXIV, LXV, and LXVI. A l l costs remain the same f o r Grande P r a i r i e , Beaverlodge, and Hythe. The elevator costs, on a per bushel basis, are extremely low, 4 . 1 1 cents per bushel using the f i r s t estimate and 6 . 1 5 cents using the second estimate. The costs are prorated to each area according to the proportion of grain they ship. The t h i r d equation becomes useless at such a handling-to-capacity r a t i o as 3 , 4 0 3 , providing negative costs. Hauling costs increase f o r Dimsdale but not great enough to overwhelm the reduc-t i o n i n elevator costs. Loader (handling) costs increase s l i g h t l y i n Dimsdale and Huallen but not as much as ex-pected, and farm storage costs remain constant. These costs were expected to show greater change possibly i n d i -cating the program was i n s e n s i t i v e to such changes, or the method of determining these values gave a downward bias . Ground costs were again almost n e g l i g i b l e . The t o t a l cost was 1 5 . 9 6 cents per bushel, lower than run 212 e i g h t , and 8 . 4 2 c e n t s l e s s t h a n r u n o n e , r e s u l t i n g f r om t h e huge l o w e r i n g o f e l e v a t o r c o s t s i n t h e p o i n t s o f D i m s d a l e , Wembley , and H u a l l e n . The t o t a l c o s t f o r f i f t e e n y e a r s was 3 , 1 8 1 , 8 3 0 d o l l a r s l e s s t h a n t h e c o s t f o r e x p e r i m e n t o n e . TABLE LXV ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 9 ) & Grain shipment (bus. Elevator cost 1 ( $ ) Elevator cost 2 (8) Elevator cost 3 ( $ ) Hauling cost ( Farm storage cost ( Ground storage cost(«>) Farm handling cost ($) Total ($) Grande Beaver-P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen lodge Hythe 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 2 5 8 6 0 0 0 6 1 4 8 5 0 0 1 6 7 8 5 0 0 8 1 3 7 5 0 0 9703500 7 5 3 4 5 0 1 0 5 9 3 0 2 5 2 4 5 0 6 8 7 6 0 4 8 0 3 0 0 7 2 2 7 0 0 7 4 6 8 5 0 1 5 8 7 0 0 3 7 8 3 0 0 1 0 3 0 6 5 5 7 3 6 0 0 7 4 1 6 0 0 1 0 0 6 9 5 0 5 2 3 2 0 0 9 4 7 4 0 0 4 7 2 8 0 0 9 5 2 3 5 1 8 3 4 5 0 5 6 I O O 3 5 4 0 0 0 3 8 4 3 0 0 4 2 8 5 5 0 9 6 5 2 5 2 1 4 6 5 0 5 9 4 7 5 3 2 7 4 5 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 2 9 1 0 5 8 5 • 2 7 9 0 1 4 8 2 3 0 4 8 3 9 0 1 1 1 1 5 0 3 1 1 7 0 1 4 2 5 7 5 1 6 4 2 5 0 1 8 0 3 0 3 0 3 4 7 1 0 0 7 6 4 6 1 0 2 1 6 0 9 0 1 3 0 4 3 2 5 1 5 9 5 0 4 0 Total 3 7 7 8 5 0 0 0 2 3 8 3 5 9 0 2 7 0 2 1 1 5 15k5SS5 1 4 4 7 6 5 0 7 3 0 5 6 4 5 7 6 5 6 0 3 0 1 9 5 C a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . r-> TABLE LXIV SUMMARY OF THE AVERAGES (15 YEARS) OBTAINED FOR THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 9)* Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe (bus.) ion (bus.) ty ) S t $; : $ : Grain shipments Standard Deviat Handling/Capaci Standard Deviation Elevator Cost 1 ( S.D. Elevator Cost S.D. Elevator Cost S.D. Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Co S.D. Ground Storage Cost ($) S.D. Farm Handling Cost (S) S.D. ($) Total Cost ($) S.D, ($) ( » ) ($) ( ? ) ( » ) ( a ) (a) ( a ) 635400 165000 2.262 .541 50230 3665 49790 3932 67130 11170 31520 7026 28570 763 9882 3052 120200 8182 172400 409900 111900 44770 106400 29060 3.403 .839 7062 16830 4584 1708 4069 1109 10580 25220 6371 1065 2 539 692 6349 12230 3740 1560 2890 913 6435 14310 3965 126 283 84 68 194 39 170 468 97 3226 7410 2078 909 2120 592 23140 50970 14410 1016 1707 555 542500 138100 2.751 .675 32020 4985 38240 3346 34880 11650 23600 5510 21830 656 9505 2758 8696O 4116 6 4 8 7 O O I684OO 2.357 .568 48180 4096 49440 4014 63160 13050 25620 5764 214OO 550 186 487 10950 3310 106300 6439 C a l c u l a t e d from the simulation model. TABLE LXVI COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT 9 ) a Grande Beaver-P r a i r i e Dimsdale r Wembley t Huallen r lodge i Hythe Total * % Elevator cost 1 7.91 4.10 4.11 4.10 5.90 7.45 6.31 39 .0 Elevator cost 2 7.84 6.14 6.15 6.14 7.05 7.64 7.15 Elevator cost 3 10.56 6.43 9.76 Hauling cost 4.96 3 .68 2.98 3 .34 4.35 3 .96 4.09 25.6 Farm Storage cost 4.50 3.73 3 .49 3 .54 4.02 3.31 3.83 24.0 Ground storage cost .04 .05 .03 .03 .02 .1 Farm handling cost 1.56 1.87 1.81 1.86 1.75 1.69 1.71 10.7 Total cost 18.92 1 3 - 4 2 12.44 12.87 16.03 16 .44 15.96 C a l c u l a t e d f rom the s i m u l a t i o n mode l ro H 216 Experiment Ten. The purpose of t h i s experiment was to determine the costs of grain assembly when a l l points except one are closed down. The point chosen to remain open was Grande P r a i r i e , the eastern boundary of the region. The average distances to the elevator points were 12.53, 10.75, 2 0 . 6 5 , 23.14, 37.70, and 45.53 fo r Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, Beaverlodge and Hythe respec-t i v e l y with a per bushel mile cost of 0.399, 0.410, 0.371, 0 . 3 6 3 , 0.298 and 0.298 cents. The l a t t e r two costs were the rates as recommended by the Alberta Motor Transport Association. The capacity of the elevator point at Grande P r a i r i e was 900,000 bushels with an average of 300,000bushels per elevator. The r e s u l t s of the experiment are presented i n Tables LXVII, LXVIII, and LXIX. The per bushel cost f o r elevators was 5.#2, 6.77 and 7.53 cents f o r the three cost estimates. The farm storage, farm handling, and ground storage costs remain s i m i l a r to those of the l a s t two experiments. Haul-ing costs increase as the distance increases and become the major cost of grain assembly. The t o t a l per bushel costs f o r points other than Grande P r a i r i e are greater than the costs associated with a l l experiments excluding runs one and two. Even i n run two the costs are lower f o r Huallen, although otherwise greater f o r the other points. However, the costs are l e s s f o r each point i n the region under t h i s config-uration than f o r the current configuration, that i s , experi-ment one. The saving i n t o t a l cost over the f i f t e e n years i s 1,530,175 d o l l a r s giving a per year cost of 20.20 cents versus 2 4 . 3 8 cents f o r experiment one. 217 Ten experiments were made to determine a small part of the response surface. The response surface was not fu l l y explored as the permutations and combinations that could be examined would take a great deal of time. The per bushel cost for the region are presented in Figure 6 for the ten experiments. A very brief des-cript ion accompanies each experiment to provide a quick summary of the results of the experiments made in this chapter. In this chapter grain assembly costs were es-timated for ten different configurations. Results of each experiment are summarized and presented in three tables to indicate the yearly averages, variat ion, total costs, and cost per bushel. SUMMARY OF THE AVERAGES Grande P r a i r i e ($) ($ ) ($) Grain shipments (bus.) Standard D e v i a t i o n (bus.) Handling/Capacity Standard D e v i a t i o n E l e v a t o r Cost 1 S.D. E l e v a t o r Cost 2 S.D. E l e v a t o r Cost 3 S.D. Hauling Cost S.D. Farm Storage Cost S.D. Ground Storage Cost S.D. Farm Handling Cost S.D. T o t a l Cost S.D. ( ( ) ($) ) ( $ ) ( i ) ($) ($) 635400 165000 2.793 .682 37020 5849 43100 3933 47970 14650 31520 7026 285 SO 759 9882 3052 107000 5233 C a l c u l a t e d from the s i m u l a t i o n model. TABLE LXVII (15 YEARS) OBTAINED FOR THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 1 0 ) a Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaverlodge Hythe 172400 409900 111900 542500 648700 44770 106400 29060 133100 168400 10050 23860 6508 31480 37700 4196 3770 1028 4974 5955 11690 27770 7574 36640 43380 1068 2537 692 3347 4009 13010 30910 8135 40790 43840 3972 9440 2499 12460 14910 7462 31240 9345 60440 80740 2044 7579 2241 14130 27150 6281 14330 3963 21330 21430 106 263 89 656 503 820 241 33 235 1045 56O 84 593 3449 7570 2051 9520 11210 895 2163 538 2759 3358 28060 77240 21900 123300 151300 3706 10310 1971 12720 18340 TABLE LXVII ACCUMULATED TOTALS FOR GRAIN ASSEMBLEY OF THE SIX AREAS (EXPERIMENT 1 0 Grande P r a i r i e Dimsdale Wembley Huallen Beaver-lodge Hythe6 Total Grain shipment (bus ;) Elevator cost 1 (8) Elevator cost 2 (J>) Elevator cost 3 (<>) Hauling cost (<>) Farm storage cost ({>) Ground storage cost(8) Farm handling cost (l>) Total ($) 9531000 5 5 5 3 0 0 646500 719550 472800 428700 148230 1605030 2 5 8 6 0 0 0 1 5 0 7 5 0 1 7 5 3 5 0 1 9 5 1 5 0 1 1 1 9 3 0 9 4 2 1 5 1 2 3 0 0 . 5 1 7 3 5 4 2 0 9 3 0 6 U 8 5 0 0 3 5 7 9 0 0 4 : 6 5 5 0 4 6 3 6 5 O 4 6 8 6 O O 2 : 4 9 5 0 3 6 1 5 i : 3 5 5 0 1 1 5 8 6 1 5 1 6 7 8 5 0 0 9 7 6 2 0 1 1 3 6 1 0 1 2 2 0 2 5 1 4 0 1 7 5 5 9 4 4 5 4 9 5 3 0 7 6 5 3 2 8 5 O O 8 1 3 7 5 0 0 4 7 2 2 0 0 5 4 9 6 0 0 6 1 1 3 5 0 9 0 6 6 0 0 3 2 7 4 5 0 1 4 2 8 0 0 1 8 4 9 0 5 0 9 7 0 3 5 O O 5655OO 6 5 8 2 0 0 7 3 2 6 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 3 2 1 4 5 0 3 5 2 5 1 6 8 1 5 0 2 2 6 9 7 2 5 3 7 7 8 5 0 0 0 2 1 9 9 2 7 0 2 5 5 9 8 1 0 2 8 4 4 8 2 5 3 3 1 1 2 0 5 1 4 4 6 2 1 0 1 9 9 3 5 6 5 5 2 3 0 7 6 3 1 8 5 0 C a l c u l a t e d from the simulation model. r-1 \o TABLE LXIX COST PER BUSHEL (EXPERIMENT 10)* Grande B e a v e r -P r a i r i e D i m s d a l e Wembley H u a l l e n l o d g e Hythe T o t a l $ $ t $ r £ $ % E l e v a t o r c o s t 1 E l e v a t o r c o s t 2 E l e v a t o r c o s t 3 H a u l i n g c o s t Farm s t o r a g e c o s t Ground s t o r a g e c o s t Farm h a n d l i n g c o s t T o t a l c o s t 5.83 5.83 5 .32 5.82 5 .80 5.83 5.82 23 .8 6.78 6.73 6.77 6.77 6.75 6.78 6.77 7.55 7.55 7.54 7.27 7.52 7.55 7.53 4.96 4.33 7.62 8.35 11.14 12.43 8.76 43.4 4.50 •3.64 3.50 3.54 4.02 3.31 3.83 19.0 .48 .06 .03 .04 .05 .2 1.56 2.00 1 .35 1.83 1.75 1.73 1.73 8.6 16.84 16.28 13.84 19.57 22.72 23.39 20.20 a C a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . ro o Experiment Ten 221 Elimination of f i v e points. Grande P r a i r i e remains with elevator capacity of 900,000 bushels Cost: 20.20 £/bu. Experiment Nine Elimination of two points. Reamining three points as i n Experiment Six. Cost: 1 5 . 9 6 ^ / b u . Experiment Eight Elimination of one point. Remaining four points as i n Experiment Six. Experiment Seven ^  Cost: 1 6 . 5 2 0/bu. - Experiment Six Reduce farm storage capacity by 75%. Elevators as i n Experiment Five. Cost: 16.91^/bu. as i n Experiment Six. Experiment Two Cost: 1 3 . 7 6 0/bu. Eliminate s i x elevators. Cost: 2 2 . 9 5 0/bu. Experiment Three Eliminate eleven elevators. Cost: 20.88 0/bu. Experiment Four Eliminate twelve elevators and reduce capacity at Grande P r a i r i e to 280,000 bushels. Cost: 1 9 . 4 4 0/bu. Experiment Five Eliminate fourteen elevators leaving Grande P r a i r i e at 280,000 bushels. Cost: 18.03 0/bu. Figure 6. The ten experiments and estimated cost per bushel f o r the region of grain assembly as determined by the simulation model. Increase truck capacity "^Experiment One to 5 0 0 bushels. Decrease farm storage Current configuration, capacity by one-half. Cost: 24.38 -i/bu. Elevator capacity 222 CHAPTER VII SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH The previous chapters have involved examination of the general background of the grain trade, the computer model, the costs used f o r the components i n the simulation model and estimated the costs of grain assembly f o r a l -ternative configurations. The number of alternative con-figuations i s i n f i n i t e , and rather than using a sampling method to examine the response surface of costs, selected a l t e r n a t i v e s were chosen l a r g e l y with respect to the assumed f e a s i b i l i t y of achieving any given alternative under r e a l world conditions. A good deal of attention was focused upon the country elevators since t h e i r operation costs constitute a large portion of the t o t a l assembly costs, and since more information was available about the elevators than other components and since the information was r e l i a b l e , and decisions regarding farm storage r e l i e d heavily upon the size and behaviour of elevators. L i t t l e experimentation was attempted with trucking costs, as the choice of truck size i s i n t e r r e l a t e d with other farm manage-ment decisions. It' was noted that an increase of truck capacity did decrease assembly costs, and that additional costs r i s i n g from increased distance could be p a r t i a l l y compensated by using larger trucks. This brings i n many questions regarding the use of average distance, roads, and commercial truck service which are recognized but not 2 2 3 dealt •with. In examining farm storage an assumption was used regarding the costs of a s p e c i f i c storage bin, because there was a great deal of ignorance concerning the use, types and costs of a l t e r n a t i v e bins. I t was assumed that farm handling costs remained constant throughout the experiment. Variations i n ground storage costs were minor throughout, thus no trade-off between farm bins and ground storage was established. This may indicate that farmers have more farm bin space than optimum, or the assumptions regarding the temporal d i s t r i b u t i o n of off-farm grain shipments were not wholly correct. The reduction of the number hence the capacity of the elevators was examined i n the f i r s t f i v e experiments. The r e s u l t s confirmed that the n u l l hypothesis of an e f f i c i e n t system could be rejected, and lower costs resulted simply by reducing the number of elevators. The estimated t o t a l assembly costs on a per bushel basis were 24.38 cents f o r the current configuration (run one), 22.95 cents f o r experiment two, 2 0 . 8 8 f o r the t h i r d run, 1 9 . 4 4 cents f o r the fourth experiment, and 1 8 . 0 3 cents under the f i f t h set of assumptions. The number of elevators l e f t was 1 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 2 , and 2 at the points of Grande P r a i r i e , Dimsdale, Wembley, Huallen, Beaverlodge, and Hythe respectively which operated at handling-to-capacity r a t i o s of two or greater. On a yearly basis, the savings would be 35,933, 2 2 4 8 8 , 1 6 1 , 1 2 4 , 5 6 4 and 1 6 0 , 0 8 0 d o l l a r s f o r the region as compared to the current configuration f o r experiments 2 , 3 , 4 , and 5 respectively. I f the choice c r i t e r i o n were to have involved the second estimate of costs to minimize the t o t a l cost of grain assembly, the per bushel costs would have been higher, but the savings would have been of roughly the same magnitude. The costs could have been further reduced by decreasing s t i l l f urther the t o t a l capacity of elevators, but i t was thought that results indicated the general d i r e c t i o n of movement toward optimum. The next reduction of costs occurred by reducing the amount of farm storage to 0 . 7 5 of the o r i g i n a l capacity which reduced the per bushel cost to 1 6 . 9 1 cents, and a yearly saving 1 8 8 , 7 6 5 d o l l a r s over the current configura-t i o n or 2 8 , 6 8 5 d o l l a r s over experiment f i v e . The next step was to decrease farm capacity by h a l f of the o r i g i n a l capacity which brought the t o t a l per bushel cost f o r the region down by 1 . 2 5 cents to 1 5 . 8 5 cents. Truck size was increased to 5 0 0 bushels which reduced the t o t a l cost to 1 3 . 7 6 cents per bushel, the re s u l t of experiment seven. The f i n a l three experiments were concerned with the amalgamation of elevator points. Runs eight and nine were concerned with the elimination of the small points Dimsdale and Huallen. Huallen was eliminated by simulating shipment of a l l grain to Wembley,decreasing the per bushel costs f o r the region and f o r Wembley. Although the cost to Huallen was more than i n run two, the increased hauling 225 c o s t s were not s u f f i c i e n t t o overcome c o s t s a v i n g s i n Wembley. A g r e a t e r r e d u c t i o n on a per b u s h e l b a s i s w ould have o c c u r r e d i f t h e second e l e v a t o r c o s t s e s t i m a t e w ould have been used t o c a l c u l a t e t o t a l c o s t s o f g r a i n assembly. N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e method o f e s t i m a t i n g t o t a l c o s t i n d i c a t e d a d e c l i n e i n c o s t s f o r t h e r e g i o n when a s m a l l s h i p p i n g p o i n t was e l i m i n a t e d . The a d d i t i o n a l e l i m i n a t i o n o f Dimsdale as a s h i p -p i n g p o i n t by s i m u l a t i n g movement o f a l l g r a i n t o Wembley, f u r t h e r r e d u c e s t h e c o s t o f g r a i n assembly i n t h e r e g i o n . The c o m b i n a t i o n o f H u a l l e n , Dimsdale and Wembley y i e l d s a l a r g e h a n d l i n g - t o - c a p a c i t y r a t i o . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e e l e v a t o r c o s t f u n c t i o n was not w e l l s p e c i f i e d f o r h i g h h a n d l i n g - t o - c a p a c i t y r a t i o s so e x t e n s i v e amalgamation of e l e v a t o r p o i n t s cannot be a c c u r a t e l y e x p l o r e d i f c a p a c i t i e s a r e h e l d c o n s t a n t . The p e r b u s h e l c o s t s o f e l e v a t o r s were v e r y l o w , 4.10 c e n t s , w h i c h r e d u c e s t h e t o t a l g r a i n assembly c o s t s f o r t h e t h r e e a r e a s , and t h e t o t a l c o s t f o r t h e r e g i o n . However, t h e i n d i c a t i o n i s t h a t c o s t s would be reduced by amalgamation o f p o i n t s , and t h e r e -d u c t i o n o f e l e v a t o r c o s t s would compensate f o r t h e g r e a t e r h a u l i n g c o s t s . The next e x p e r i m e n t , r u n t e n , w h i c h s i m u l a t e d shipment o f a l l g r a i n s t o one p o i n t , Grande P r a i r i e , p r o -v i d e d s u r p r i s i n g o u t p u t . T o t a l g r a i n assembly c o s t s were l e s s t h a n f o r t h o s e f o r t h e c u r r e n t c o n f i g u r a t i o n . E l e v a t o r 2 2 6 capacity was extrapolated beyond the observations used i n estimating the cost equations, and a low cost was i n -curred by the elevators. A capacity of 900,000 bushels was chosen to approximately coincide with the elevator capacity proposed i n an elevator r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n scheme by Barnett-McQueen Company, Ltd."*" In t h e i r study, the elevator was to be 925,000 bushels with an average turn-over of three. The annual cost of operating an elevator was estimated at 1 3 7 , 8 1 2 d o l l a r s , using a construction cost of 1 . 2 5 d o l l a r s per bushel capacity. Using Zasada*s estimate, the comparable cost was 14-6,618 d o l l a r s and the second estimate of cost, determined i n t h i s study was 170,654 d o l l a r s . Using the second equation f o r elevator costs and assuming an average capacity of 900,000 bushels reduces the t o t a l elevator cost to 1 6 3 , 2 0 0 d o l l a r s . A l l estimates i n t h i s study are greater than the Barnett-McQueen estimates, so that r e s u l t s reported here may be thought to be conservative. The cost could have been further reduced by assuming l e s s farm storage capacity, and larger farm trucks. The v a l i d i t y of simply reducing costs by the above methods y i e l d s questionable basis f o r p o l i c y though more spectacular r e s u l t s could have been obtained. The timing of r a i l shipments and l o c a t i o n of elevator points was not studied. In the f i r s t case, ^V.B. Cook, A Paper on the Grain Industry of Manitoba-Saskatchewan- Albert a Fort William: Barnett-McQueen • Company Limited, Engineers and Constructors, December, 1 9 6 2 ) o 227 elevator costs were not sensitive to the abrupt changes i n the timing of operations, the fe a s i b l e rates of hand-l i n g were not known, the storage costs were not known f o r an elevator, and l i t t l e was known regarding the farmer*s reaction to changes i n shipments. The relocation of elevator points was conceptually possible, but perhaps i n f e a s i b l e . At any rate no examination of adjustment paths or p o l i c i e s was undertaken. Mo strong statements can be made regarding the re s u l t s as the model i s h e u r i s t i c , that i s , i t aids i n discovery but no proof i s provided f o r the correctness of the outcome. The f i r s t hypothesis, that simulation would be a useful technique to study grain assembly, was accepted. The technique appears to be a very r i c h way of examining the grain assembly problem. The quantity of data required f o r an adequate model used f o r predic-t i o n and control was not determined. The second hypothesis that grain assembly i n the region i s e f f i c i e n t could be negated assuming that the re s u l t s adequately r e f l e c t the costs involved i n grain assembly. The second part of the hypothesis could also be negated as changes i n truck s i z e , elevator capacity, farm storage capacity, and hauling distance provided a lower cost under the assumptions used i n the experiments. As explained previously, temporal changes i n r a i l shipments were not examined, leaving a part of the hypothesis untested. 228 There i s l i k e l y a dichotomy between the accounted costs i n the study and costs that would be incurred by the r e a l system. No apology i s given f o r the divergence, i f any, as a considerable amount of work remains to be done i f such costs are to be found and examined. One further l i m i t a t i o n of the study was that conceptually the study involves p a r t i a l equilibrium. I d e a l l y , the whole grain marketing system would be examined fo r the interdependent r e l a t i o n s rather than one small region. For instance, the reduction of elevator capacity lowered costs, but what would be the consequences to the Wheat Board, railways, and national economy? Greater amounts of commercial storage space might then be advocated under a global analysis rather than the reduction of capacity as suggested here. The regional system might be considered i n e f f i c i e n t from the viewpoint of t h i s study. The reduction of ele-vator space, reduction of the number of points, and i n -crease of truck size reduced costs. The increased d i s -tance to elevators did not r e s u l t i n increased costs, but rather a decrease took place by increased use of given elevators. This indicates that a good deal of change can take place, and be of benefit to the farmer and even to elevator companies. The question of compensation or the accrual of these savings and t h e i r d i s t r i b u t i o n was not considered. The effect upon ra i l r o a d s was not 2 2 9 examined nor was the effect to elevator companies examined. The important point i s that a great deal of research into the problems of grain marketing would be f r u i t f u l f o r a l l parties concerned, and a l l parties must be w i l l i n g to cooperate. Objectives must be defined e x p l i c i t l y , and a l l aspects examined to adequate-l y cope with problems and suggest f e a s i b l e and p r o f i t a b l e change. This study was concerned with the movement of grain from the farmer to the box car. A simple simula-t i o n model was b u i l t and used to examine alternative configurations. The r e s u l t s indicated that savings could occur under d i f f e r e n t configurations. The method of e f f e c t i n g the alternatives and the f e a s i b i l i t y of the a l t e r n a t i v e s was not examined. Further research i s required, not only f o r the implementation, but from a broader viewpoint, examining a l l aspects of the grain trade. 230 BIBLIOGRAPHY Alberta Department of Agriculture, A g r i c u l t u r a l Engineer-i n g Section, Temporary Grain Storage, August 1 9 6 5 . Alberta Department of Agriculture, Farm Economics Branch, S t a t i s t i c s of Agriculture f o r Alberta 1955 to 1964. 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Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics and Farm Management and the Department of Mathematics, Technical B u l l e t i n No. 8 ; Winnipeg: The University of Manitoba, November 1 9 o 4 . Young, K.B. An Analysis of the Cost of Assembling' G r a i n bv  Farm Trucks i n Manitoba. Research Report No. 1 1 , Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics, University of Manitoba, October 1 9 6 6 . Zasada, D. and Om P. Tangri. An Analysis of Factors Affecting  the Costs of Handling and Storing Grain i n Manitoba  Country Elevators. University of Manitoba, Depart-ment of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics, Research Report No. 1 3 , Winnipeg, July 1 9 6 7 . APPENDIX I FORTRAIN PROGRAM OF THE SIMULATION MODEL OF GRAIN ASSEMBLEY _______L_-___U^^ . — .. . JOB NUKBEft 0 1 0 0 7 CAIEGCRV F U?ER'S NAME- R GROUNDWATER USER'S PROJECT-JOB START t l H R S 0OM1N A5.35EC V W 1 1 O F F - L I N E BG366 DATE 0 8 / 0 1 / 6 8 i I -JOB C1CC7 GRCWPWAT.R _ : ^ I -FORTRAN ! 1 DIMENSION IF UK t 61,ICWK I 6 >,FCOEF(61, SMCO ( 100 ) , FCAROV I 6 1 2 DIMENSION C f t A P ( f c , 5 2 > , S a i 6 , 5 2 1 . n E f y P ( ? 5 ) . SHHOO ( 6 i, CASQV ( 61 3 OIKENSICN CR0P<6.52 S ,CSA (61 , F0A.6 1 ,RS( 5 2 1 , KC ( 6 i , F $f. { 6 ! * CI KENS ION S ..'(•"(6) ,SUMt (6 I , S U M 2 I 6 1 , I G T { 6 ) 5 DIMENSION- X2I6J , E L C A P ( _ ) , A A I 6 I 6 DATA X 2 / . 6 2 i , . _ A l , . 5 5 S . . 0 5 6 , . A 7 . , . 6 2 1 / 7 OS*A SHHOD/3.665,!.0.2.3??,.6*«,3.i.fc. 3.762/ JC DATA F C C E F / 3 , 8 0 3 - , 7 5 7 9 . , 1 6 3 2 1 . ,A6',Q., 25". AS, , 2 5 1 3 6 . / 1 1 DATA F C A R O V / O . . C . , 0 . , C . , 0 . , 0 . / 12 CATA £1 CAP/1 5 4 3 7 . 5 , 4 2 6 6 . 7 , 8 7 7 5 . 0 . 3 0 0 0 , 0 , 7 7 6 8 . 3 . 1 0 7 1 3 . 3 / 13 CATA A A / A . i 3 . , A . , 2 . , 6 . , 6 . / 1* CUVI'V^P.ANDf. 1 .123*561 ! c c CROPS AND H A I L SHIPMENTS S.EAO AND STORED IN WEEKS 15 CO 50 1-1,6 16 R E A C ! 5 , l ) I C « O P < i , J ) , J = l , 5 2 ) 17 k i l l TE ( 6 , 3 ) ICRCP 1 I, J ) . J = l ,52 ) 2C D»TA CAK C V / 3 7 0 6 6 . T , ICC77 . 8 , 2 9 6 3 3 . 3,'.998,9, 3<i6AA. A , <r57S5. 6/ 21 50 CQNTI SUE 22 R E A C ! 5, 1 ) R S 2 3 -SI IE.6,1>HS 2<i 1 F O R C A T I U F 6 - 1 1 25 R E A C ! 5 . 2 1 C S r t , F 5 A , FSC.SWOF 26 c h R i Iti6,2!CSA,FeA,FSC»SF00 c CSA-COffERCIA L STOWAGE AV A I L A B L E c FDA-FARC B I A S A V A I L A B L E c HS- HAIL 5HIPHENTS/WK c CROP-CROP/WEEK c FC-ELEVATGK COSTS c GC-KAiJL CCSTS c FSC- f A R P STORAGE COSTS c 6SC-G«tGi:M. STORAGE COSTS c CS-CCCCEKCIAL STORAGE PRESENTLY A V A I L A B L E c SGT- GROUND TIME IN WEEKS FOR F I E L D STORAGE c S R C P -VAR1BLE CROP c I F K K - N C . - E E K S IM FARC STORAGE c ICWK- HC.WEEKS IN COff STORAGE 27 2 F O R y A T ( 6 F 1 0 . 3 ) 3C 3 F 0 R f A T . l X , 1 3 F S . l ) 31 K t * l 32 CD 999 K P - 1 , 2 5 3 3 <5<39 IT£KP(KP)«0 3 1 REAL KRCP 3 5 777 7 0 7 A L - 0 , 36 PARANOIC.01 37 H = P»1C0. AC IF (M.ec.oiy-ioc AI CC«RAN0(0.01 240 — O 0* r-u * • * ft - 4 O • i-< tt « H H Ci o a K o o o a Q it. > > > > O —• O o O • * • ft »~ o O O UJ <_? • • « <-<j ir--O a? • • • • * • * O o o a a 2r X 2: < < < < •<t • o o o O <-J> • tJJ U J ' .U —f —i —J ft t • -c — rv • o (A TO O r * * LL U . LL LA — K l i — —, -X. — ~ ijj £ > a; a a •a a: U. O . r*, r- -* r-*1 :> ' t\ m if * H r« u -* -j •I -f U% lA Vfi i/l tf\ . ... f\| . „ . : < co i-o s~ cn i/i u. 'I £C O W I! C j l ( T • :! cs it w r- II I -Q CD </> cu v i vt\ ZD • o u- O ii* o u . c : . >-< fi; n ^ IT U\ sO -O «© * I or — H <j. e —• MI a T • — or -~> o ~ * ' — a a — o < oi cc fx U3 3 <i i**- o fvj'i m -or m <i t -A. O O cr CC LL O •* •Jl "* CC IT *z u. * X >- ft. o O w » a : k. a x o t >— »—< nr. cc —• — St I i . — « 13 o i 5 Wl 120 KROP*KROP-FB C C ALL LEFT COES INTO FSELS STORAGE C 1 2 1 F B = C . 122 FS=FStKROP C C, RA1E IS COST /VEEK.FACT ITIPE! IS CEFINING FUNCTION C 123 55 IFIFS.Nc.O.lOO T0987<J 12A IGT ! I )-0_ 125 RATF>0. 126 CO 10 988 127 5879 IGT II > - IGT t I 1 <• 1 130 I H = IGT(I» 131 RA 7 E = FAC 7( I 7 1 1 132 9,8 GBC»FS«RAT_ 133 S U K 2 ( I ! - S U f 2 ( I ) * G » C C C NO SAIL SHIPMENT GET NEXT WEEKS CROP C 13A 1FIHR.E0.G.!G0 TO 52 C T A K E FiELO STORAGE OFF FIRST C 1 3 5 IFIFS.LT.^RIC-O TO 1 3 136 OU7 1.*J-OU'T!N.RR»2. 1 3 7 FS-FS-RR 1 A C C C 1 0 5 3 U l 13 IFtFS.NE.C.)RR-BR-FS 1A2 OUTiN«OUT.N*FS«?« IA3 C C C FS*C. TAKE FARM BIN STORAGE 11A FB=FB«RR 1A5 I F I F 8 . l E . F f U ||) )0UTIN = 0UIIN*Ri.*2. I'tb IF 1FR.LE.FBA(I> } G O TC 53 H ? OUTIM=DU7 IN*(F&A11 i - F S > R R ! * 2 . 150 RP. = FB-FOA ( I ) 151 F B - F A ( I S 152 c C c TAKE COPPERCiAL STORAGE RTEfP = C S M I l - C S 1 5 3 CS=CS»RR ISA I F (CS.LE_.CSA U ) )0UT-0UT»-RR '155 IF (CSVLE.'CYA'I f ) l ' C U 7 l'JRH 1 5 6 1 F I C S . I E . C S A U ! 1GC T O 5A 1 5 7 G U T - O U T - C S M I >-CS>RR • 1 6 0 C L T 1 = C S A ( u-CS + RR It I CS'CSAil) 1 6 ? S P ( I ,J)=R.E^P _ 1 6 3 " GO T O 5 2 C T A B U L A T E NO. W E E K S IN STORAGE 16A 5 3 IF FS.NE.O. II FWK I I 5-!FWK( I j H 1 6 5 IF iFB.NE.FBA I I ) . A N ' O . FS.EO.O. ) I FHK ( I.*IFWKtI ! • ! 1 6 6 5 A 1FICS.NE.CSAI I ) UCHKI l.«!CWXt I ) + \ U 7 IF . _ l . 6 e . 5 2 . FCARCVi I )»F8*( I _~FB 170 RR«0 171 5? Z = 2*BEG1N-0UT1*A!N'1 172 8 £ G > N = C S A { i t - C S 173 <563 CONTINUE J _• X 1 = tOilT I N»AIN+OLT 1/2 . . 175 X l « X l / C S A f I > 176 X 3 = Z / 5 2 . 177 %3=X3/CSA 11 ) 2CG WHITE (6 ,6?) K I , I SOI 68 FORPAT(lHl.,4HYEAR t15,10X,4HAREA,I5» .2.0.2 _ _ _ > R.! J E j A i J O i J CR A? I J ,.JJ., J = t , 5 ?J_ 203 30 F0RKAK12H CROP / H H K / U F U . Z H 204 WRS7EC6.31 !< S 5 R U 8 J t ,J= 1,52) 2C5 31 FOKCATIZOH RAH. SKIPKENTS/WGEK/t*F12,21) ?c.6 p t u r m m . i F v i i c u ) , ic«Ki n,!CTU) 2C7 i m F 0 R K A r i 5 X , 2 0 H W . WEEKS FARK STCRE,t«,23H NO. WEEKS COMH 5TORE,!* 1 j _ 2 b _ _ _ _ M 0 _ WEEKS F1CL_0__SXQSJFjJ 4i-210 S»RlTLi6,35) F S C M ) ? U 35 F D R M A 7 I 5 5 H RATES FOR COrKERC I A l - r ARM COSTS FOPS EACH SO B U S H E L S /• 1 2 3H FARM ST 20RAGE C O S T / L N i T , r l C . O / 3 2 H 1 UNTT»10 QUSHELSiCOST IH DOLLA1 212 ! . R l T E t 6 . 2 4 ) l fSUCfl) . S U f l l l l .CS f it t, F ISA I J1 213 2& F g R K A T O O X t * H A R E A , l 2 / / / l O X , ? O H _ T O T A L GRAIN IH AREA .F10,2 /10X, 13 OH TOTAL GR A IN THROUGH PARK 8 I N S Y F 10,2/1O 'xTUH ~AV A R A S L ' E " 'SPACE. FI 2O . 2/10X . 20H FAR.v BINS AVAILARLE.F10.21 Z l < KRiTE< 6 , 9 8 ? ! C$T,FBT 215 9 9 7 FORKATCtCX.AGH COKKERCIAL S P A C f I 6 F F E C T I V 6 FOR STORAGE I»FI 5.5/ UOX . 3 2 H FARC flif>S EFFECTIVE F C R STORAGE,F15.5> _____„ . C TABULATE COSTS C 216 T0UT=0U1*Ct:TJN/2. 217 SA IiN = A 1 N + CUT I N / 2 . 2ZQ CALL H A L.CSTtCOSTl,SAIN,FAUD , K ! ,!> 2 2 t _ C0ST2 = S t ! ^ U I 1»F 5C(J__*FCCEF{J ! _ 222 c6S!3=<OUTi»i/2 . i»,2 c C GRAIN COSTS Its COmiC I «l B I N ACC LAST YEARS CARRYOVER OUTPUT COST C SUBTRACT PRESENT YEARS CARRYOVER CUTPOT COST C .22.3 CARCVt 1 I -CSA ( 1 LrCS 224 WA I TE 16,292) X I ,X3,CA~RCVU 1 «?C»ROV ( f ) 225 F8C».2765--.0777 * X i * . O O 7 5»Xl»*2-.0503*X2Uf-.O282*X3 226 FBC--FBCfi I OUT I Ns-A 1 N i OUT ) 11. ) M 0 . 227 FBCI«I3690.*. 2383»TOUT/AA S t } + 1 .1 OS 5 *ELCAP ( \ ) 1 *AA f 1 ) 2 30 FBC2» IJ,0U09-.CCO2335*CTaUY / A A < I. 1 > •.00079288*£LCAP{ I ) 1 +7.1075^58* ( AA I S j /TOUT) 1 I T OUT*.. l_ , 23! SUM2U!-SU>'2( l7*.Ol 232 T0T«!0T+SLf2!(I *COSTt•CCST2 + FBC*CCST3 2J3 TQTAI_ = TOTAL*TOT 23* 29 FORCATI18H BSN COST 1S,FTO.0.10X,F10,0,1 OX,f10.0) 235 27 FORMAT(25H HAUL COST SS ,F15 . 0 / , 2 0 K FARM STORE B I N COST ?,Flc ,0/18H GROUND STORE COST,F1 0 . 0/)&B LOADER ETC_COST t F ! 0 , 0}__ _ 236 WRITE t 6 , 3 2 t ) H A U D 237 321 F 0 R P A T I 1 C X , 6 H KAUD .F5Q.1 1 240 2 92 FO R r * n 5 X , 3 H X I , F t 5 . 5 t 2 X , 3 H X 3 . F 1 5 . 5 . 1 0 K CARRYOVER,FJ5.5/ 1 1 5 H FARM CARRYOVER,F15.5! 241 WR£t£l<.,236)S*I<WTaUT 2.4 2 236 fOS.y.aJ.( 10X ,19K TOTAL,. CR Aj>£ yA L i t E 0 i . F 1 S . S /?.0H. TOTAL GRftfH SH1PPF.O tf „ J o o o o o X O O _-v tA ii. i_T O tu V» o O O o u. < * * UJ C£ li- -i ar X < *Q a . a: u u O *_ CO a ; u. *_J C l o o u < cC o o u. a CL —I > f— < • a <r f.J *_*; O K- k— O O o Q t/i u_ ».J o V - f - X CO X AJ r. -r o «& o (S. _j r v ~ •G •XJ •45 — • £ w _o __ t~ j— -—• I.U <H~ <• tii < * »-~ Zfc. >I i -LA « t. <oc — CC or a o a a: o u . s. _c •J_ us U. _* *-* m -r cc. o XT. r'. ir. •a r* a --^  *r 6TV cm r-j fy A . 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O <5 O ' - o o o -£0 O o oo •? & •o f - o a © r- o o o o r -  *£> <£•• _i o o c o o o r - CO ri *"* <r o O O - P o o o o •f- w. lA m tr vft © o o' — O O O O i O l A &• <© ** tM O _ c > o'o i f I ' ojo ' o o » o o > o o ' o o i o! o O IV • O O O &' 0: 0 O O (%i O o o • o o o o O I o r- o o O *T O O a o o a O -4T O O O o -* o o o C *v O _ G (7- O D| -O O O O ( O O f - O O O i. • O ; O o -o o o o O o o o o o- o o a i O O ? s O Q » • o o • O O ! > o o ' O O • o j o * • O ' O t Q.O ' M fv a> . f v ert t W\ C J f I* • £0 a? f w »A r . i O O IS: . * o rn «\ i ; o u*i o a- • *y r-v « • f j o a i o o ! i CO OS O CO CO F~ O <A _> « <F <" r A ? O O O C C O O O O ; ^ c o B -a ^ 'v-<• O if. 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(Unpublished), . . . . ^''Specified acreage", means the sum of the wheat, oats, barley, rye, summer fallow, and forage crop acreages. However, f o r the years 1 9 5 5 and 1 9 5 6 forage crop acreage was not included.. ro ON TABLE L X X I ACREAGES DETERMINED FROM CANADIAN WHEAT BOARD PERMIT BOOKS 1955-1956 TO 1965-1966 DIMSDALEa Unculti-Year No. of Permits Wheat Oats Barley Rye Summer Fallow Forage Crops Speci-f i e d 6 Flax-seed Rape-seed Other Crops vated Land Total Acres 1955 72 2 , 5 1 6 5 ,137 5 , 162 62 4 , 9 5 1 5 ,000 17 ,829 816 N/A 1 , 0 0 0 1 0 , 0 0 0 34 ,645 1956 76 1 , 6 4 9 5 , 6 7 4 5,555 10 5 , 4 8 0 3,814 18 ,368 974 .1 400 1 0 , 9 5 0 34 ,506 1957 79 1,40S 5 ,268 6 , 3 4 0 142 4,370 5 ,039 2 2 , 5 6 7 797 742 1 1 , 2 5 7 3 5 , 3 6 3 1953 77 1,476 4 ,633 6 ,135 35 5 , 9 4 8 5 ,966 24,193 363 .1 948 11,044 3 6 , 5 8 4 1959 81 2 , 7 1 0 3 ,885 7,177 32 4 , 5 2 9 5 ,663 2 3 , 9 6 6 964 1,040 1 0 , 5 6 9 3 6 , 5 6 ? I 9 6 0 75 3 ,015 3 ,546 5 ,681 727 5 ,065 5 , 4 5 0 23,484 813 332 9 , 8 4 9 34,47* 1961 73 4 , 0 6 7 3 ,597 5 ,384 101 5 ,022 5,944 24,115 848 495 9 ,755 3 5 , 2 1 3 1962 73 5 , 0 0 9 3 ,272 5 ,087 - 6 , 2 5 7 4 , 9 8 4 2 4 , 6 0 9 871 52 414 9 , 8 6 2 3 5 , 8 9 3 1963 76 5 ,556 3,231 6,745 - 5,380 5,063 25,975 1,224 75 526 10,760 38 ,560 1964 76 6,647 3,324 6,874 - 4 , 5 6 4 5,728 27,297 651 617 260 10,648 39,473 1965 74 4 ,373 1 ,750 7 ,472 - 4,911 6 , 3 8 9 24,895 335 2,930 345 1 0 , 1 6 7 3 8 , 6 7 2 aData provided by courtesy of the S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada. (Unpublished). ^'Specified acreage", means the sum of the wheat, oats, barley, rye, summer fallow, and forage crop acreages. However, f o r the years 1955 and 1956 forage crop acreage was not included. TABLE L X X I I ACREAGES DETERMINED FROM CANADIAN WHEAT BOARD PERMIT BOOKS 1955-1956 TO 1965-1966 WEMBLEYa U n c u l t i -Year No. of Permits > Wheat Oats Barley Rye Summer Fallow Forage Crops Speci-fied' 3 Flax-seed Rape-seed Other Crops vated Land Total Acres 1955 207 6,352 11,800 12,109 399 11,785 11,600 42,385 2,118 N/A 400 28,500 85,003 1956 202 5,184 12,639 11,248 44 13,943 11,323 43,058 2,813 1,000 28,225 85,419 1957 207 6,256 9,653 11,372 1,062 11,324 15,384 54,051 2,257 .1 1,076 27,188 84,642 1958 198 4,290 6,839 12,719 100 13,196 16,823 53,967 1,729 .. 429 25,062 81,187 1959 195 5,672 6,367 12,707 292 11,003 16,994 53,035 2,973 n 297 25,954 82,259 I960 193 7,479 6,207 11,605 205 11,489 17,583 54,568 2,091 999 27,214 84,872 1961 192 9,808 6,423 9,959 132 12,107 15,928 54,357 2,731 » 900 27,2 74 85,262 1962 182 9,308 7,891 10,732 - 11,569 12,073 51,573 3,049 261 612 26,298 81,798 1963 191 9,259 6,341 13,622 7 13,881 9,406 52,516 3,896 1,140 1,339 25,018 83,909 1964 183 12,566 5,297 12,696 188 9,887 11,298 51,932 2,450 4,050 502 24,591 83,525 1965 173 6,166 2,111 12,505 41 11,959 14,646 47,428 1,527 7,725 269 23,933 80,882 aData provided by courtesy of the S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, (Unpublished). . . . ^Specified acreage means the sum of the wheat oats, barley, rye, summer fallow, and forage crop acreages. However, f o r the years 1955 and 1956 forage crop acreage was not included. TABLE LXXIII ACREAGES DETERMINED FROM CANADIAN WHEAT BOARD PERMIT BOOKS 1955-1956 TO 1965-1966 Year No. of Permits Wheat Oats Barley Rye Summer Fallow HUALLENa Forage Crops Speci-f i e d 1 3 Flax-seed Rape-seed Other Crops Unculti vated Crops Total Acres 1 9 5 5 6 4 1 , 2 0 0 4 , 7 8 6 1 , 7 2 8 2 3 2 3 , 1 8 4 4 , 0 0 0 1 5 , 1 3 0 1 , 2 1 2 N/A 6 0 0 8 , 9 0 0 2 5 , 9 4 2 1 9 5 6 6 3 1 , 0 4 1 5 , 2 1 8 1 , 3 6 0 4 0 4 , 0 5 2 3 ,000 1 1 , 7 1 1 1 , 3 5 1 9 2 9 8 , 5 2 1 2 5 , 5 2 2 1 9 5 7 6 3 1 , 1 4 3 3 , 9 3 5 1 , 8 6 6 4 1 4 2 , 3 4 1 5 , 7 1 6 1 5 , 4 1 5 8 3 1 9 4 0 8 , 5 7 3 2 5 , 7 5 ^ 1 9 5 8 6 4 7 9 2 3 , 4 1 3 2 , 6 1 4 4 0 4 , 0 0 5 5,295 1 6 , 1 5 9 4 6 1 » 996 8 , 4 5 4 2 6 , 0 7 0 1 9 5 9 6 2 1 , 1 4 8 3 , 9 7 5 2 , 3 3 8 1 3 2 3 , 8 9 7 4 , 4 2 6 1 5 , 9 1 6 9 2 3 1 , 3 8 1 8 , 4 9 0 2 6 , 7 1 3 I960 6 2 1 , 4 2 5 3 , 5 9 5 2 , 0 5 6 1 0 5 4,306 5 , 2 8 9 1 6 , 7 7 6 8 0 5 9 7 1 8 , 3 2 2 2 6 , 8 7 4 1 9 6 1 6 1 1 , 9 4 0 3,602 2 , 4 1 5 3 0 4 , 0 9 0 4 , 8 3 6 1 6 , 9 1 3 888 " 9 0 9 7 , 9 8 3 2 6 , 6 9 3 1 9 6 2 6 2 2 , 2 4 2 3 , 6 4 7 2 , 6 7 6 - 3,604 4 , 4 3 0 1 6 , 5 9 9 7 1 5 22 6 5 8 8 , 2 6 6 2 6 , 2 6 0 1 9 6 3 6 1 2 , 9 4 6 3 , 1 5 1 3 , 0 8 5 - 3 , 6 6 9 3 , 4 6 5 1 6 , 3 1 6 1 , 0 4 2 1 9 9 1 , 5 3 2 7 , 4 6 6 2 6 , 5 5 5 1 9 6 4 6 2 2 , 9 6 2 3 , 1 1 2 3 , 4 3 5 - 3 , 7 0 5 4 , 4 4 1 1 7 , 6 5 5 8 7 1 1 , 2 3 1 1 , 3 4 4 6 , 7 1 1 27,812 1 9 6 5 5* 1 , 2 3 0 1 , 5 5 2 3 , 0 8 7 - 4 , 8 7 4 5 , 4 3 0 1 6 , 1 7 3 3 1 0 3 , 0 6 6 1 , 2 7 6 6 , 2 1 7 2 7 , 0 4 2 ^ a t a provided by courtesy of the S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada. (Unpublished). ^Specified acreage means the sum of the wheat, oats, barley, rye, summer fallow, and forage crop acreages. However, f o r the years 1 9 5 5 and 1 9 5 6 forage crop acreage was not included. TABLE LXXIV ACREAGES DETERMINED FROM CANADIAN WHEAT BOARD PERMIT BOOKS 1955-1956 TO 1965-1966 BEAVERLODGE a U n c u l t i -Y e a r No, o f P e r m i t s Wheat Oa ts B a r l e y Rye Summer F a l l o w F o r a g e S p e c i - F l a x -C r o p s f i e d b seed R a p e -seed O the r v a t e d C r o p s Land T o t a l A c r e s 1 9 5 5 3 7 0 6 , 9 2 5 1 8 , 4 9 1 9,797 87 1 7 , 0 3 0 38,000 5 2 , 3 3 0 2 , 6 1 4 N/A 2,000 60,000 1 5 4 , 9 4 4 1 9 5 6 3 6 5 5 , 1 7 9 23,811 9 , 7 0 5 116 2 7 , 1 3 4 24.,074 6 5 , 9 4 5 5 , 0 5 1 i t 1 , 0 0 0 5 6 , 4 9 1 1 5 2 , 5 6 1 1 9 5 7 353 4 , 1 7 2 1 9 , 2 3 6 1 0 , 5 9 4 218 1 6 , 5 1 4 36,977 87,711 4,690 s? 2,560 55,506 1 5 0 , 4 6 7 1 9 5 8 3 6 1 2,918 1 6 , 2 7 3 1 2 , 0 9 8 60 18,996 34,414 9 3 , 8 7 9 2,226 I t 2 , 0 2 9 5 7 , 2 6 8 1 5 5 , 7 6 2 1 9 5 9 3 7 2 4 , 5 9 7 1 7 , 1 4 5 13,777 6 9 18,806 39,858 9 4 , 2 8 7 4 , 9 0 1 il 1 , 5 9 4 6 1 , 5 7 6 1 6 2 , 3 5 8 I960 3 7 1 5,699 1 5 , 0 9 2 1 2 , 0 3 9 1 6 2 2 0 , 5 3 1 4 1 , 6 3 9 95,242 4 , 6 1 3 r t 2 , 1 7 5 6 3 , 6 7 2 1 6 5 , 7 0 2 1 9 6 1 3 8 2 6 , 5 0 6 1 6 , 7 6 3 1 2 , 7 0 8 1 3 0 2 1 , 8 4 9 4 0 , 0 5 9 9 8 , 0 1 5 5 , 5 9 1 I t 1 , 4 0 5 6 5 , 0 2 9 1 7 0 , 0 6 0 1 9 6 2 3 9 0 7 , 2 5 8 1 8 , 6 1 3 17,220 255 22,338 3 4 , 2 8 0 9 9 , 9 6 4 7,464 2 5 0 1 , 3 8 1 6 7 , 8 9 9 1 7 7 , 0 9 5 1 9 6 3 3 9 0 5 , 5 3 0 17,116 2 5 , 0 6 9 323 1 8 , 0 5 2 3 4 , 1 6 0 1D0, 2 5 0 8 , 5 3 6 8 6 7 1 , 7 4 2 6 8 , 3 5 4 1 7 9 , 7 4 9 1 9 6 4 3 5 4 6 , 8 6 2 1 5 , 5 7 4 2 1 , 4 2 3 433 1 4 , 7 2 4 3 6 , 1 3 7 9 5 , 1 5 3 6 , 0 1 6 2,602 1 , 9 6 9 6 2 , 5 3 1 1 6 8 , 2 7 1 1 9 6 5 3 6 9 2 , 8 4 7 8 , 1 3 2 18,717 1 1 5 2 0 , 8 1 3 4 9 , 9 2 2 100, 5 4 6 4,878 8 , 1 2 8 1 , 9 9 5 6 4 , 5 9 9 1 8 0 , 1 4 6 a D a t a p r o v i d e d by c o u r t e s y o f t h e S t a t i s t i c s B r a n c h , B o a r d o f G r a i n C o m m i s s i o n e r s f o r Canada ( U n p u b l i s h e d ) . b s ' S p e c i f i e d a c r e a g e " , means t h e sum o f t h e w h e a t , o a t s , b a r l e y , r y e , summer f a l l o w , and f o r a g e c r o p a c r e a g e s . However , f o r t h e y e a r s 1 9 5 5 and 1 9 5 6 f o r a g e c r o p a c r e a g e was no t i n c l u d e d . TABLE LXXV ACREAGES DETERMINED FROM CANADIAN WHEAT BOARD PERMIT BOOKS 1955-1956 TO 1965-66 Year No. of Permits Wheat Oats Barley Rye Summer Fallow HYTHEa Forage Crops Speci-fiedb Flax-seed Rape-seed Other Crops Unculti vated Land Total Acres 1955 413 3,482 2 1 , 1 5 1 1 6 , 9 3 9 1 , 2 5 9 1 6 , 4 7 1 3 0 , 0 0 0 5 9 , 3 0 2 5 2 8 N/A 1 , 6 7 0 5 4 , 0 0 0 1 4 5 , 5 0 0 1 9 5 6 415 2,287 27,135 1 2 , 4 7 3 1 2 5 2 4 , 7 3 7 2 3 , 0 0 0 6 6 , 7 5 7 9 7 3 n 1,492 54,75^ 1 4 7 , 0 2 5 1 9 5 7 4 1 1 2,286 24,185 13,618 6 4 1 1 7 , 1 9 6 3 1 , 8 2 5 8 9 , 7 5 1 1 , 1 3 9 1 , 5 9 2 51,270 1 4 3 , 7 5 2 1 9 5 8 4 5 1 1,546 2 2 , 0 2 3 1 6 , 0 3 5 2 4 5 1 8 , 5 0 0 3 8 , 9 7 5 9 7 , 3 6 4 362 1,335 6 0 , 5 4 2 1 5 9 , 6 0 3 1959 457 1 , 7 3 7 1 9 , 6 8 8 20,782 413 18,475 3 9 , 7 9 8 1 0 0 , 9 3 5 4 2 4 1 , 8 3 0 6 2 , 3 5 4 165,543 I960 459 2,369 1 9 , 7 3 9 18,072 160 21,442 4 3 , 3 5 9 1 0 5 , 2 4 6 1 , 5 3 0 1 , 0 1 0 65,610 1 7 3 , 3 9 6 1961 455 3 , 3 0 & v 23,278 1 5 , 0 6 1 1 5 2 2 2 , 4 9 3 4 0 , 2 5 9 1 0 4 , 5 5 1 1,595 1 , 9 9 4 6 6 , 9 6 2 1 7 4 , 2 0 2 1 9 6 2 467 4 , 2 3 6 2 6 , 6 5 4 1 8 , 8 0 4 59 2 1 , 7 8 8 3 3 , 3 4 7 1 0 4 , 8 8 8 3 , 0 4 7 4 6 4 1,601 7 1 , 4 9 1 1 8 1 , 5 0 1 1963 4 6 O 3,749 2 5 , 8 7 4 2 2 , 3 6 2 4 2 22,295 3 2 , 9 5 6 1 0 7 , 2 7 8 3 , 0 8 7 6 2 5 3,294 69,907 184,191 1 9 6 4 4 4 8 8 , 0 2 8 2 3 , 2 9 5 2 2 , 3 1 2 9 2 1 8 , 2 8 6 3 7 , 0 3 2 1 0 9 , 0 4 5 2,174 2 , 5 3 7 1,979 69,429 I85,16kr 1 9 6 5 422 3 , 1 9 0 1 0 , 4 2 2 17,417 35 2 3 , 0 3 3 4 3 , 3 0 7 9 7 , 4 0 4 1 , 5 9 8 1 1 , 6 4 6 2,663 61 , 9 2 7 1 7 5 , 2 3 3 aData provided by courtesy of the S t a t i s t i c s Branch, Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada. (Unpublished), " S p e c i f i c acreage" means the sum of the wheat, oats, barley, rye, summer fallow, and .forage crop acreages. However, f o r the years 1955 and 1956 forage crop acreage was not included. ^ I—1 252 TABLE LXXVI ACRES, NUMBER OF PERMITS , AVERAGE FARM SIZE, AND NUMBER OF SECTIONS (640 ACRES) BY DELIVERY POINT, 1 9 6 5 a Total Acres Number Average , of Permits Farm Size Sections Grande P r a i r i e 2 5 6 , 6 3 3 5 5 4 4 6 3 4 0 0 . 9 9 Dimsdale 3 3 , 6 7 2 7 4 5 2 3 6 0 . 4 3 Wembly 8 0 , 8 8 2 1 7 3 4 6 8 1 2 6 . 3 8 Huallen 2 7 , 0 4 2 5 8 4 6 6 4 2 , 2 5 Beaverlodge 1 8 0 , 1 4 6 3 6 9 4 8 8 2 8 1 . 4 8 Hythe 1 7 5 , 2 3 8 4 2 2 4 1 5 2 7 3 . 8 1 TOTAL 7 5 8 , 6 1 3 1 , 6 5 0 1,135.3 AVERAGE 4 7 0 . 5 Source: AppendixIETables LXX,LXXI,LXXII,LXXIII,LXXIV,LXXV. b Rounded to closest acre. TABLE LXXVII YIELDS BY CENSUS DIVISIONS 1956-1965 (ALBERTA) 3 OATS 2 5 3 Census D i v i s i o n 1 9 5 6 1 9 5 7 1 5 3 . 9 3 4 , 8 2 6 1 . 0 4 5 , 0 3 4 4 . 3 3 1 . 9 4 4 3 , 9 2 2 , 0 5 5 4 . 1 3 8 , 2 6 4 6 „ 3 3 7 , 1 7 4 5 . 4 2 4 . 6 8 4 7 , 8 3 6 „ 7 9 1 0 4 9 , 5 29.4 1 1 5 1 . 0 3 7 , 3 1 2 4 7 . , 1 3 4 , 0 1 3 1 4 4 7 , 8 3 9 , 2 1 5 4 6 . 0 3 9 . 8 Province 4 8 , 7 3 4 , 4 P r a i r i e Provinces 4 6 . 2 3 0 , 4 1 9 5 8 1 9 5 9 i 9 6 0 1 9 6 1 4 2 . 3 2 7 , 6 1 9 . 4 4 . 4 5 1 . 7 5 1 . 7 4 0 . 4 2 8 , 4 3 6 . 2 4 0 , 0 3 8 , 1 3 0 . 9 2 1 . 9 2 2 . 6 1 4 , 4 . 7 , 1 4 5 . 7 4 7 . 2 3 7 , 9 2 5 . 9 5 1 . 4 4 5 , 1 3 4 . 1 3 5 . 3 2 2 . 3 2 0 . 1 3 5 . 3 2 9 . 0 5 0 , 7 4 0 . 5 4 4 . 6 3 3 . 2 Included w i t h # 6 2 3 , 9 2 8 , 9 4 3 . 4 3 7 , 4 4 3 . 5 4 7 , 6 4 8 , 9 4 2 . 5 1 7 . 2 4 3 . 1 4 4 , 4 3 9 , 0 3 6 . 4 4 4 . 9 4 0 . 7 4 6 . 6 2 5 - 0 3 4 , 0 3 7 , 0 4 5 . 7 3 4 . 5 3 7 , 9 4 0 . 3 3 6 . 9 3 2 , 0 3 3 , 9 3 8 . 5 2 5 . 2 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 5 1 4 . 7 2 9 . 1 2 9 . 9 4 5 . 5 4 7 . 2 4 6 . 3 4 7 , 6 5 9 . 6 3 4 . 6 5 2 . 9 3 6 . 6 5 0 . 7 3 0 . 9 4 2 . 5 23,3 3 7 . 9 3 5 . 7 6 1 . 4 5 2 . 2 5 7 . 2 4 6 . 9 6 8 . 3 5 2 . 8 6 0 . 8 5 0 . 7 60.3 3 2 . 0 4 1 . 8 4 6 , 7 6 6 , 2 5 4 . 3 5 3 , 2 5 4 , 1 5 4 . 2 3 1 . 1 4 7 . 3 5 5 . 7 5 1 . 3 4 0 . 3 5 3 , 4 3 2 . 2 3 3 . 5 2 7 . 2 3 9 . 5 4 6 . 4 4 0 . 5 4 6 . 0 3 6 . 1 4 8 . 0 2 6 . 4 4 6 . 4 3 0 , 3 4 6 . 5 5 1 . 2 4 0 . 5 4 7 , 3 4 5 . 0 4 8 . 6 4 0 . 8 4 8 . 2 Source of Data: Census y i e l d data provided by courtesy of Farm Economics Branch, A l b e r t a Department of A g r i c u l t u r e ; Data f o r P r a i r i e Provinces i n Canadian Wheat Board, Report of the Cjmadian-Wheat Board: Crop Year 1 9 6 5 - 6 6 (Winnipeg: January l y 6 7 ) Appendix, Table 1 1 , p„27 254 TABLE LXXVIII YIELDS BY CENSUS DIVISIONS 1956-1965 (ALBERTA) 3 BARLEY Census Divisions 1956 1 41.3 2 48.3 3 38.1 4 31.3 5 42.0 6 35.7 7 34,1 8 33.4 9 10 30.7 11 32.7 12 27.3 14 30.4 15 30.4 Province 33.6 P r a i r i e Provinces 32.0 1957 1958 27.4 37.8 27.1 15.9 31.3 28.8 19.1 25.2 20.6 24.4 22.8 30.5 43.9 39.7 14.7 38.1 38.9 18. a 34.2 17.7 28.8 11.4 1959 I960 -Bushels-22.6 15.0 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 4.8 8.4 43.9 34.5 22.7 30.3 34.8 26.9 27.5 33.8 16.9 10.8 6.3 20.2 39.2 31.9 21.0 27.4 34.0 30.0 27.4 33.1 18.2 28.8 24.1 36.9 30.9 32.3 24.1 33.6 Included with #6 22.4 30.2 28.0 35.1 32.9 30.2 28.1 34.4 31.8 24.1 27.1 18.6 27.4 25.3 31.2 24.2 30.4 27.8 26.8 16.4 26.6 27.2 34.1 32.8 25.8 27.8 30.5 23.7 26.9 31.3 16.8 37.3 47.8 36.4 51.9 49.4 47.9 44.3 38.8 33.4 25.0 26.6 15.1 34.9 26.4 41.2 37.0 16.9 44.4 42.2 24.4 35.2 22.2 28.2 18.0 31.0 30.5 32.4 39.7 47.9 46.9 32.8 48.8 44.5 34.2 31.0 33.1 29.3 27.5 24.3 24.1 33.9 22.7 25.4 27,1 28.0 19.8 31.0 36.O 30.1 35.2 aSame source as i n Table LXXVII. 255 TABLE LXXIX YIELDS BY CENSUS DIVISIONS 1956-1965 (ALBERTA) 3 WHEAT Census Divisions 1956 1 2 6 . 5 2 3 1 . 2 3 2 3 . 1 4 2 2 . 0 5 28.4 6 2 3 . 4 7 2 5 . 3 8 2 5 . 1 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Province P r a i r i e Provinces 2 5 . 0 2 7 . 2 2 3 . 5 2 5 . 3 2 6 . 8 2 3 . 5 2 6 . 5 1957 19.3 24.4 13.4 12.6 22.0 22.5 16.0 20.7 18.4 24.4 21.1 10.9 19.1 1958 1959 I960 1961 -Bushels-18 .6 13.1 7.6 2.3 26 .8 27 .6 20 .5 12 .5 25.3 21.4 17.1 14.9 10.7 11.1 7.0 4 . 6 25.0 26.1 21.2 13 .6 28.8 2 5 . 3 22.1 19.1 15.0 14 .3 20 .6 17.2 27.2 2 3 . 3 24 .9 16.2 Included with §6 19.0 20 .5 27.3 23.2 27.7 30.2 29.3 23.8 14.8 25 .9 25.8 22 .9 1962 1963 1964 1965 4 . 6 13.3 1 8 . 0 7 . 4 1 5 . 9 2 2 . 2 2 0 . 9 2 6 . 2 2 9 . 9 33.3 1 9 . 0 8 . 1 1 9 . 3 2 5 . 3 2 2 . 0 3 0 . 4 3 2 . 7 3 4 . 6 3 4 . 7 3 2 . 3 2 8 . 3 2 0 . 0 1 5 . 1 2 4 . 5 2 2 . 3 1 1 . 4 2 9 . 7 3 0 . 6 2 0 . 4 3 1 . 3 2 0 . 4 2 8 . 3 1 3 . 1 14.0 20.4 20.3 20.9 22.3 19.8 26.6 1 5 . 8 2 5 . 1 1 9 . 2 10.4 25.1 2 2 . 3 2 2 . 3 20.3 2 8 . 8 27.3 19.2 30.9 29.7 23.0 27.4 24.6 30.4 17.9 2 3 . 5 2 3 . 9 2 7 . 2 2 4 . 6 2 6 . 0 2 4 . 1 2 1 . 9 2 5 . 3 2 3 . 2 1 7 . 6 2 5 . 3 17.8 17.3 17.9 20.8 10.6 20.8 26.0 19.9 22.7 aSame source as i n Table LXXVII. TABLE LXXX . YIELDS BY CENSUS DIVISIONS 1956-1965 (ALBERTA) a FLAXSEED, RAPESEED, FALL RYE, SPRING RYE 1956 1957 A. FLAXSEED Peace River 10.6 9.0 P r a i r i e Provinces 11.5 5.5 B. RAPESEED Peace River NA NA C. FALL RYE Peace River NA 18.5 D. SPRING RYE Peace River NA 17.5 E. RYE P r a i r i e Provinces 17.0 14.0 Same source as i n Table LXXVII. 1958 1959 I960 7.6 8.0 8.9 8.7 8.3 '3.9 NA 11 .3 12.1 15.1 18.6 23.2 17.5 15.0 19.0 12.4 16.7 14.6 1961 1962 1963 12.9 10.6 6.5 6.3 11.0 12.5 18.2 13.8 9.5 22.0 23.0 14.4 17.0 15.0 17.5 15.8 15.8 13.3 1964 1965 1966 10.3 8.6 9.9 10.1 12.5 11.3 13.7 9.1 14.0 27.4 24.3 25.9 14.3 19.7 18.8 16.7 15.7 I 8 . 4 vn ON TABLE XXXI PERCENT CROP HARVESTED EACH WEEK - 1953 TO 1965 a WHEAT OATS Grande Dims- Wem- Beaver- Grande Dims-Week P r a i r i e dale bley lodge Hythe P r a i r i e dale Wem- Beaver-bley lodge 'Hythe 1 9 5 3 1 9 5 4 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 6 5 - - - - - - _ — ____ 6 - - 5 - 1 0 - 3 1 0 — ___ 7 - 5 - - - - — — 1 0 1 5 8 5 5 - 60 - 1 0 7 1 0 1 0 1 5 9 - - - - - - — — _ 1 0 1 5 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 5 1 5 2 0 1 1 4 0 3 0 3 0 1 5 3 5 3 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 30 1 2 3 0 3 0 3 0 5 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 1 3 1 0 F c 1 5 F 5 1 0 1 0 1 5 1 5 F 5 6 — — — — — — 1 — - -7 - 3 - - - - 4 - - -8 - 2 - 5 - - 5 - - -9 5 - - 1 0 - - - - - -1 0 - - 1 0 5 0 - - 5 4 0 - -4 — _ 1 _ - _ 5 5 5 1 0 5 - 1 5 9 . 1 5 5 5 6 3 5 2 5 1 5 2 0 2 0 4 5 1 5 1 5 6 5 2 5 7 2 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 8 - 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 - 3 5 4 5 5 2 5 1 4 2 0 1 5 8 F 1 0 2 0 2 0 5 1 5 2 0 1 5 1 5 F F F 1 0 F F F F 5 6 7 - — 5 - - - 2 0 2 0 5 -8 2 0 5 2 0 3 0 ' 1 5 " 20 2 0 2 0 2 5 2 0 9 2 0 5 1 5 3 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 4 0 3 0 2 5 3 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 5 1 5 2 0 2 0 1 5 1 5 2 0 1 3 2 0 3 £ 1 0 F 2 £ 2 Q 10 5 5 , 2 0 1 4 • •F ... F F F F F F F F . F Grande Dims- Wem- Beaver- Grande Dims-Week P r a i r i e dale bley lodge Hythe P r a i r i e dale Wem- Beaver-bley lodge Hythe 1957 1953 1959 5 - - - -6 - - 5 -7 - 15 5 25 8 30 20 20 30 9 30 25 20 15 12 15 10 10 15 13 25 30 30 15 15 F F F F 2 _ _ 55 — 3 15 25 10 -4 10 25 5 5 5 - - 5 15 6 5 - - -7 - - 5 5 11 20 10 10 20 12 20 10 5 15 13 20 20 5 30 14 10 10 F 10 4 _ - - -5 5 - - -6 20 50 20 -7 5 - 5 -8 15 10 25 5 9 5 - - 10 10 25 - 15 35 14 20 20 20 20 15 5 20 15 30 10 10 5 40 35 F 40 10 15 10 5 10 5 5 F 20 20 10 20 30 20 60 20 F F 20 15 5 10 20 10 20 F 5 10 5 35 5 20 20 - 5 •- -15 15 25 20 35 20 20 20 50 40 40 20 F 20 15 25 F F F 15 F F F F 50 25 2 60 25 25 13 10 - 25 45 -- - - 5 - 5 5 10 15 10 15 10 10 10 10 5 F F 10 F F F F F 30 5 1 5 20 15 - 20 - 10 - 35 - 15 4 20 - - 20 -- 25 45 -20 15 15 10 30 15 15 10 ro oa Grande Week P r a i r i e Dims- Wem-dale bley Beaver- Grande Dims- Wem- Beaver-lodge Hythe P r a i r i e dale bley lodge Hythe I960 4 1961 1962 1963 5 5 10 - -6 15 10 5 2 7 20 15 35 58 8 55 40 40 20 9 5 25 20 20 10 F F F F 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 15 55 60 40 10 5 10 10 40 20 30 20 15 15 F 15 20 5 F 15 F F F F 5 5 15 55 10 10 2 2 8 3 5 15 5 40 20 10 2 10 15 38 29 65 30 35 5 20 10 5 10 15 1 - -4 - -15 20 -45 30 20 5 10 10 5 5 5 20 20 30 5 15 35 - 20 30 -15 40 25 5 15 20 30 15 30 20 15 60 30 F F 20 10 F F F — 15 15 - 20 30 55 25 10 30 -40 30 15 20 15 30 10 10 20 10 F F F F F F _ -5 5 15 50 15 10 5 20 15 30 15 15 30 15 45 5 5 — 1 -- 7 -— 7 -5 10 0 5 40 5 2 5 35 33 35 60 40 10 5 5 70 15 5 10 10 5 2 33 40 5 70 15 10 F 5 45 15 15 20 F F 1 1 14 54 10 10 10 5 5 30 3 27 30 25 25 25 15 10 20 20 30 30 F F 5 20 35 25 10 5 5 10 5 10 10 4 26 30 ro vO Grande D i m s - Wem-Week P r a i r i e d a l e b l e y B e a v e r -l o d g e Hy the Grande D i m s - Wem- B e a v e r -P r a i r i e d a l e b l e y l o d g e Hythe 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 5 1953 1 9 5 4 7 _ - — - - - - — - — 8 1 0 - - - 5 2 0 3 5 1 0 1 5 9 1 0 - - - 1 0 5 2 - . 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 3 5 4 0 5 0 5 5 2 0 4 5 2 0 5 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 5 1 0 1 5 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 2 2 5 3 0 2 0 1 5 3 0 1 5 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 3 2 5 2 5 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 5 1 8 2 0 1 5 1 4 1 0 F 1 0 F 1 0 2 0 2 0 F 1 0 2 5 1 5 - F - F - - - F -4 1 _ _ — _ - _ 5 — - - - - - 5 - 2 -6 - - - - - - - - - -7 — 1 - - - - 5 - - -8 — 5 1 5 - 1 0 1 0 1 5 1 0 1 0 9 1 0 3 9 1 0 - 1 0 5 1 0 1 3 -1 0 6 0 6 5 5 0 4 0 4 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 7 0 1 1 3 0 2 5 3 0 2 5 60 2 5 2 0 1 0 1 5 1 5 1 2 F F 1 0 2 0 F F F 1 0 1 0 5 BARLEY FLAX 5 2 _ 5 5 - - - - - -6 6 1 0 2 5 1 5 1 0 - 5 - - -7 2 2 0 5 5 1 5 - - - - -8 1 5 5 0 4 0 5 5 2 5 - 2 5 - 4 0 -9 _ - - - - - - - - — 1 0 ^ 2 5 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 5 1 5 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 5 0 1 0 5 1 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 3 5 2 0 4 0 1 2 F F F F F 3 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 1 3 F F F F F 2 5 1 5 2 5 F 2 0 5 6 - 1 0 — 1 5 — — 7 - 1 0 - - - - - - - -3 1 0 5 2 5 1 0 1 0 - - - - -9 1 0 1 0 - - 5 - 5 - - -1 0 - 5 3 5 - - - - - - -ro O Week Grande D i m s - Wem-P r a i r i e d a l e b l e y B e a v e r -l o d g e Hythe Grande Dims-P r a i r i e d a l e Wem- B e a v e r -b l e y l o d g e Hythe 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 6 4 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 5 1 0 - - - - -5 4 0 3 0 1 0 5 0 2 0 - - - - -6 2 5 2 0 3 0 - 2 5 - - - - -7 5 3 5 2 5 2 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 0 5 1 0 8 — 5 1 0 5 5 - - 5 5 5 1 4 2 0 F 5 F 1 0 3 0 3 0 4 0 3 0 4 0 1 5 F F F F F 4 0 60 5 5 60 4 5 6 2 0 1 0 _ 1 0 5 — _ _ - _ 7 2 0 1 0 2 5 2 0 5 0 - - - - -3 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 0 1 5 - - - 2 0 9 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 0 1 5 5 1 0 5 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 5 1 5 2 0 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 1 5 3 0 1 2 F 1 5 1 0 F F 3 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 3 F F F F F 2 0 2 5 1 5 3 0 2 0 1 4 F F F F F F 3 0 2 5 3 0 F 1 9 5 7 1 9 5 8 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 1 3 1 5 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 2 5 2 5 2 0 2 0 1 0 - - 5 - -1 0 1 0 1 5 2 5 1 5 - - - - -3 5 4 0 4 0 3 5 3 0 5 1 5 1 0 5 -1 0 5 2 0 2 0 1 5 5 2 5 1 5 1 0 -2 0 2 0 5 F 2 0 2 5 2 5 3 0 2 5 1 0 F F F F 1 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 F F F F F 3 5 5 2 0 2 0 5 0 5 4 5 2 5 5 1 0 1 0 F F 5 0 2 0 3 0 F F F F F F F 1 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 5 5 F F F 1 1 4 6 5 1 0 5 5 F F F 1 0 8 5 3 2 F F F F F 1 5 - 2 5 1 0 5 5 - - 1 5 5 -2 - 60 - 5 _ _ _ 1 0 1 0 1 8 1 0 5 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 5 3 0 2 0 F 2 5 2 0 4 0 3 5 F 3 5 2 0 1 9 5 9 I 9 6 0 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 2 Grande D i m s - ¥ i m - B e a v e r - Grande D i m s - Wim- B e a v e r -Week P r a i r i e d a l e b l e y l o d g e Hy the P r a i r i e d a l e b l e y l o d g e Hyth< 4 1 0 5 2 _ _ _ _ _ 5 2 5 3 0 - 8 1 0 - - - - -6 4 5 4 0 2 5 - 2 0 2 3 0 1 0 - -7 1 0 1 0 1 0 - 5 0 •- - - - — 8 - - 2 5 1 0 1 0 5 - - - — 9 _ — - 2 0 - - - - - -1 0 - - 1 0 5 0 - 3 5 - - 1 0 -1 4 2 0 1 0 2 5 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 1 5 F F F F F 3 8 5 0 60 7 0 - 7 0 4 5 5 _ — _ - - — - _ 5 2 5 2 5 1 5 - 1 0 - 5 - - -6 3 0 1 5 3 5 2 0 1 0 1 0 5 - 2 -7 2 0 3 0 2 0 7 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 5 4 8 -8 2 0 2 5 1 5 1 0 3 0 4 0 4 0 60 1 0 3 0 9 F F 1 5 F 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 1 0 F F F F F F F 1 5 2 0 3 0 3 4 0 4 0 80 5 0 4 0 _ _ _ _ _ 4 4 0 4 5 5 3 0 2 0 - 2 5 2 5 -5 1 0 5 5 1 0 1 5 1 0 1 5 1 8 5 -6 - — - - - - - 1 0 - -7 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 5 1 5 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 5 8 F F F F 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 9 F F F F F 4 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 4 0 1 0 F F F F F 2 5 1 0 3 0 2 0 3 5 5 _ _ _ 3 3 — — _ _ _ 6 1 5 2 5 2 0 7 7 - - - - -7 1 5 2 5 5 2 0 2 0 - 1 0 •- 5 -8 1 5 1 5 6 5 5 0 4 0 1 5 1 5 5 5 -9 4 5 3 5 5 1 5 2 0 1 0 6 5 5 5 0 60 1 0 1 0 F 5 5 1 0 2 5 1 0 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 1 - - - - - 2 5 • - 4 0 1 0 1 0 1 2 - - - - - 2 5 - 2 0 5 1 0 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 5 Grande Dims- Wim- Beaver- Grande Dims- Wim- Beaver-Week Pr a i r i e dale bley lodge Hythe P r a i r i e dale bley lodge Hyth' 2 5 1 1 _ _ 3 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 0 2 — _ _ 4 9 6 4 - 1 0 - — — _ 5 1 6 5 1 0 - 5 3 3 — _ 6 - 60 1 5 1 5 1 0 1 - 2 _ 7 _ _ _ _ _ _ 3 8 1 0 - 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 - - — 9 - - - - - - - - — _ 1 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 1 4 0 2 0 3 4 3 0 3 0 27 32 25 3 0 3 5 1 2 5 F 2 0 3 0 2 0 60 60 60 60 60 7 1 2 _ _ _ _ _ _ : 8 1 0 9 1 0 8 1 0 - - - -9 1 0 - 5 5 5 - - - - -1 0 1 0 4 0 3 5 1 5 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 5 2 5 5 1 1 2 5 1 5 1 5 1 0 2 5 4 0 1 5 1 5 1 0 5 1 2 2 0 1 5 1 5 3 0 1 5 3 0 3 5 3 0 3 0 4 0 1 3 2 0 2 0 1 5 1 5 2 5 1 5 3 0 3 0 2 5 2 5 1 4 5 F 5 1 5 1 0 5 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 5 1 5 F - - - - - - 1 0 1 0 4 1 2 5 2 0 2 5 — — - - -5 _ - — 8 - - - - - -6 - - - - - - - - - -I 8 ~_ 30 1 0 1 0 _ _ 1 0 1 0 9 9 5 1 0 1 0 - 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 -1 0 60 6 0 3 0 5 0 7 0 3 5 2 0 1 0 3 0 4 0 1 1 30 1 0 5 1 0 5 5 5 60 7 0 4 0 30 1 2 F F 5 1 0 1 0 F F 1 0 1 0 2 0 aSource: Data provided by courtesy of Alberta Fheat Pool compiled from the crop reports of the elevator agents. b"-v' means zero ro ON OJ 'F!? means harvest complete. 2 6 4 TABLE LXXXII ESTIMATED CAPITAL COSTS OF FARM GRANARIES Granary Charge (standard size) I f granary investment f o r the grain crop has not been recorded, use the following schedule to calculate int e r e s t and depreciation charges: Rate: f o r large buildings Wooden Granary Storage, wood f l o o r - Use 30<£ p per bu. f o r every 1 , 0 0 0 bu.or part. Wooden Granary Storage, concrete f l o o r - Use 3 5 $ per bu. f o r every 1 , 0 0 0 bu. or part. Steel Granary Storage, wooden f l o o r - Use 2 3 ^ per bu. f o r every 1 , 5 0 0 bu. or part. Depreciation rate wood 5 % ( 2 0 year l i f e ) Depreciation rate s t e e l 5 % ( 2 0 year l i f e ) 0 Stationary Steel 3 % ( 3 3 year l i f e ) Source: K. Porter, Straight-Line Depreciation (Farm Economics Branch, Alberta Department of Agriculture, 1 9 o 2 ) . ^Construction cost. cLarge s t e e l b u ilding. 265 TABLE LXXXIII ESTIMATED YEARLY CHARGE FOR WOODEN BIN IN ALBERTAa Bin Average cost f o r 1 , 0 0 0 bushel bin i s $ 2 7 5 . 0 0 . L i f e expectancy i s 2 5 years. Cost per bushel capacity i s $ 0 . 2 8 . ( 1 ) Depreciation @ 10$ 2 7 . 5 0 ( 2 ) Interest on Investment @ 5 $ 1 3 . 7 5 ( 3 ) Minimum maintenance and repair 5 . 0 0 ( 4 ) Insurance 2 . 0 0 Total Yearly Cost 4 8 . 2 5 Source: Courtesy of the Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta. 266 TABLE LXXXIV PRICE OF STEEL BINS AT CALGARY, ALBERTA (1967) a Item 1,350 bus. s t e e l b i n F l o o r Labour 1,650 bus. s t e e l b i n Fl o o r Labour 2,700 bus. s t e e l b i n F l o o r Labour 3,300 bus. s t e e l b i n F l o o r Labour T o t a l * o a * T o t a l T o t a l T o t a l 1,440 bus.. Basic Wooden bi n (Round Plywood) Labour T o t a l F.O.B. Calgary Cost $320.00 100.00 80.00 $500.00 $373.00 100.00 90.00 $563.00 $541.00 157.00 110.00 $808.00 $635.00 157.00 120.00 $912.00 $290.00 35.00 $325.00 Cost Per Bushel Capacity i n $ b .37 .34 .30 .28 .23 Mileage $0.35 per mile f o r c o n t r a c t o r both ways. Source: Courtesy of the United Farmers of A l b e r t a Co-operative L i m i t e d , 1 1 1 9 — 1 s t S t . S.E., Calgary, A l b e r t a , ^ E x c l u d i n g mileage. 2 6 7 TABLE LXXXV ON-FARM STORAGE CAPACITY21 Cultivated Storage Maximum Observation Acreage Capacity Capacity (bushels) (bushels) 1 129 7 ,000 2 3 2 0 6 ,000 3 3 2 0 5 ,000 7,000 4 4 8 0 1 0 ,000 5 8 0 0 1 0 ,000 6 3 2 0 5 ,000 7 9 6 0 13 ,000 22,000 8 430 9 ,000 9 3 2 0 3 ,000 1 0 3 2 0 6 ,000 1 1 3 2 0 4 , 5 0 0 1 2 6 4 0 1 2 ,000 16,000 1 3 1 , 2 0 0 3 2 0 2 0 ,000 1 4 6 , 5 0 0 1 5 1 , 4 8 0 3 5 ,000 1 6 470 1 0 ,000 1 7 1 6 0 2 ,000 1 8 4 8 0 4 , 8 0 0 1 9 4 8 0 6 ,000 7,000 2 0 9 6 0 6 ,000 7,000 2 1 4 8 0 6 ,000 9,000 2 2 6 4 0 7 , 8 0 0 1 0 , 2 0 0 2 3 6 0 0 8 ,000 2 4 5 5 5 4 ,000 2 5 3 2 0 6 ,000 2 6 3 2 0 1 0 ,000 2 7 1 6 0 5 , 5 0 0 2 8 6 4 0 3 ,000 2 9 2 0 0 4 ,000 3 0 3 2 0 7 ,000 3 1 4 8 0 8 , 4 0 0 3 2 2 8 9 7 , 2 0 0 9,000 3 3 4 2 0 6 ,000 3 4 6 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 5 3 4 0 7 , 5 0 0 3 6 7 6 5 2 0 000 3 7 3 0 0 7 000 3 3 3 7 0 1 2 000 3 9 5 0 0 1 3 000 4 0 8 2 0 2 1 000 4 1 4 7 0 1 6 000 TOTAL 2 1 , 0 4 3 3 8 2 , 2 0 0 AVERAGE 5 1 3 9 , 3 2 1 . 9 5 Source: Survey conducted by Larry Kane, Research Assistant, 1 9 6 6 . 268 TABLE LXXXVI GRAIN RECEIPTS AT COUNTRY ELEVATORS (CENSUS DISTRICT NUMBER. FIFTEEN) & Year Wheat b (bushels) Oats (bushels) Barley (bushels) 1 9 5 5 / 5 6 4,808,380 3 , 4 9 0 , 9 7 9 4 , 6 7 0 , 8 9 1 1 9 5 6 / 5 7 5 , 2 0 2 , 6 2 2 4 , 4 2 5 , 7 8 8 6 , 2 9 3 , 3 7 3 1 9 5 7 / 5 8 3 , 4 5 6 , 0 9 1 3 , 7 8 9 , 8 8 0 6 , 0 4 5 , 3 2 9 1 9 5 8 / 5 9 2 , 5 8 9 , 3 0 8 2 , 6 4 4 , 0 3 9 5 , 7 3 6 , 5 4 7 1 9 5 9 / 6 0 6 , 8 6 1 , 9 5 6 2 , 8 0 4 , 2 8 4 8 , 4 7 3 , 9 5 7 1 9 6 0 / 6 1 7 , 0 4 8 , 6 4 7 3 , 2 3 0 , 0 9 0 3 , 8 9 2 , 6 0 6 1 9 6 1 / 6 2 8 , 6 5 1 , 9 5 7 4 , 6 7 8 , 7 3 6 1 0 , 5 6 0 , 2 1 4 1 9 6 2 / 6 3 7 , 3 3 2 , 3 2 3 4 , 2 2 2 , 5 1 1 9 , 9 8 6 , 9 9 3 1 9 6 3 / 6 4 4 , 4 6 6 , 1 0 3 1 , 6 2 1 , 1 8 6 7 , 1 8 7 , 7 2 4 1 9 6 4 / 6 5 7 , 6 2 1 , 1 6 4 2 , 0 9 2 , 4 0 3 9 , 4 2 6 , 1 0 4 TOTALS 5 9 , 0 3 8 , 5 5 1 3 2 , 9 9 9 , 8 9 6 7 7 , 2 7 4 , 2 3 8 Percentage of Total Wheat = 3 4 . 8 7 Oats = 1 9 . 4 9 Barley = 4 5 . 6 4 Source of Data: Canada, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s and Board of Grain Commissioners f o r Canada, Canada Grain Trade (Ottawa: Queen's Printer and Controller of Stationery, 1956 t o 1 9 6 5 ) . ^Includes Durham. TABLE LXXXVII 7 COMMERCIAL GRAIN HAULING RATES BY TRUCK (ALBERTA) 1967 a> b Wheat Oats Barley Cents per Cents per Cents per Cents per Cents per Cents pe: ii stance 0 bushel bushel bushel bushel bushel bushel mile^ mile°- mile" 1 2 . 5 2 . 5 1 . 7 5 1 . 7 5 2 . 0 2 . 0 2 2 . 7 5 1 . 3 7 5 2 . 0 1 . 0 0 2 . 2 5 1 . 1 2 5 3 3 . 0 1 . 0 2 . 2 5 . 7 5 2 . 5 . 8 3 3 4 3 . 2 5 . 8 1 2 2 . 5 . 6 2 5 2 . 7 5 .683 5 3 . 5 0 . 7 0 0 2 . 7 5 . 5 5 3 . 0 . 6 0 0 6 3 . 7 5 . 6 2 5 3 . 0 .50 3 . 2 5 . 5 4 2 7 4 . 0 . 5 7 1 3 . 2 5 . 4 6 4 3 . 5 . 5 0 0 8 4 . 2 5 . 5 3 1 3 . 5 . 4 3 8 3 . 7 5 . 4 6 9 9 4 . 5 0 . 5 0 0 3 . 7 5 . 4 1 7 4 . 0 . 4 4 4 1 0 4 . 7 5 . 4 7 5 4 . 0 . 4 0 0 4 . 2 5 . 4 2 5 1 1 5 . 0 . 4 5 5 4 . 2 5 . 3 8 6 4 . 5 . 4 0 9 1 2 5 . 2 5 . 4 3 7 4 . 5 . 3 7 5 4 . 7 5 . 3 6 9 1 3 5 . 5 . 4 2 5 4 . 7 5 . 3 6 5 5 . 0 . 3 8 5 1 4 5 . 7 5 . 4 1 1 5 . 0 . 3 5 7 5 . 2 5 . 3 7 5 1 5 6 . 0 . 4 0 0 5 . 2 5 . 3 5 0 5 . 5 . 3 6 7 1 6 6 . 2 5 . 3 9 1 5 . 5 . 3 4 4 5 . 7 5 . 3 5 9 1 7 6 . 5 0 . 3 8 2 5 . 7 5 . 3 3 8 6 . 0 . 3 5 3 13 6 . 7 5 . 3 7 5 6 . 0 . 3 3 3 6 . 2 5 . 3 4 7 1 9 7 . 0 .363 6 . 2 5 . 3 2 9 6 . 5 . 3 4 2 2 0 - 2 9 7 . 0 . 3 5 0 6 . 5 . 3 2 5 6 . 7 5 . 3 3 8 3 0 - 4 9 1 0 . 0 . 3 3 3 6 . 7 5 . 2 9 8 8 . 0 . 3 2 1 5 0 - 6 9 1 2 . 0 . 3 1 3 7 . . 2 8 4 1 0 . . 3 0 7 7 0 - 1 0 9 1 5 . 0 . 3 0 4 9 . . 2 7 2 1 3 . . 2 9 3 1 1 0 - 1 5 9 1 8 . 0 .292 1 1 . . 2 6 0 1 6 . . 2 3 1 1 6 0 - 2 2 0 2 1 . 0 . 2 8 0 1 3 . . 2 5 0 1 9 . . 2 7 0 Source: Alberta Shippers Guide (Twenty-first edition: Alberta Motor Transport Association, 1 9 6 7 ) , p . 1 8 1 . ^Minimum charges f o r miles a c t u a l l y hauled. Where topography of d i s t r i c t i s of a r o l l i n g nature, one-half cent per bushel may be added to above schedule. cMileage to be computed from loading point to delivery point over the route t r a v e l l e d . Divide cents per bushel by distance. 270 TABLE LXXXVIII COMMERCIAL HAULING CHARGES BI TRUCK FROM FARM TO COMMERCIAL ELEVATOR: DAWSON CREEK AREAa Miles Cents/bushel b 0 - 1 0 4 1 0 - 1 5 5 1 5 -2 0 7 2 0 - 3 0 3 3 0 - 4 0 9 4 0 - 5 0 1 2 'Source: Guy Lapage, Supt. Nat. Grain Co., Dawson Creek, B.C. Approximate charges of commercial truckers. 271 TABLE LXXX.IX COMMERCIAL TRUCK RENTAL RATES a' b Charge 0 Time $ 3.75 per hour 17.00 per ten-hour day 20.00 per twenty-four hour day 75.00 per five-day week 85.00 per seven-day week 255.00 per month Source: Shaw Truck Rentals, Calgary, Alberta. ^ F i f t e e n foot grain box on a three-ton truck with h o i s t . The approximate capacity i s 300 bushels. °Plus gas plus $ .16 per mile. 272 TABLE XC FARM TRUCKING COSTS a' b 1 . Average cost of truck $ 3 , 0 0 0 . 0 0 2 . Depreciation @ 2 0 % $ 6 0 0 . 0 0 3 . Maintenance and repairs 2 0 0 . 0 0 4 . Insurance 3 7 . 0 0 5 . License 4 0 . 0 0 6 . Gasoline @ 2 5 ^ / m i l e @ 2 , 5 0 0 miles/yr. 6 2 . 0 0 7 . O i l 3 0 . 0 0 . 8 . Interest on investment @ 5 % 1 5 0 . 0 0 $ l , 1 2 0 . 0 0 / y e a r Total Cost $ l , 1 2 0 . 0 0 / y e a r / 2 , 5 0 0 miles 44.80/mile Grain hauling share of mileage 3 5 return t r i p s to elevator 2 0 x 3 5 Total Cost ( 7 0 0 miles x . 4 4 8 dollars/mile) $ 3 3 1 . 6 0 Cost per bushel $ .0523 'Source: Courtesy of the Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Engineering, University of Alberta, 1 9 6 7 . Estimates based on the sale of 6 , 0 0 0 bushels. TABLE XCI 273 DERIVATION OF FORMULA FOR CALCULATION OF AVERAGE DISTANCE FOR THE SIMULATION MODEL D = 2/ab </ a " ( V a ) x ( x + y ) d y d x y 2 /w v b - b/ax •dx = 2/ab 0/ (xy + y V 2 ' ) 0 = 2/ab Q)a x ( b - b/ax) + 1/2 (b - b/ax) 2 dx = 2/ab L b x 2 / 2 - bx 3 / 3 a + 1/2 (b 2xx- 2 b 2/a°x 2 / 2 + b 2 / a 2 ° x 3 j = 2/ab [a 2b / 2 - ba 3 / 3 a + (b 2a / 2 - b 2 a 2 / 2 a + b 2 a 3 / 6 a 2 J = 2/ab \_a2b/6 + b 2 a / 6 ] = (a + b ) / 3 i . e . the sum of the distances of the centroid from the axes From 2 f o r A A D = (a + b ) / 3 S i m i l a r l y f o r ^A' D = a + b /3 referred to XY axes = - (a-+b)/3 + (a +b) referred to xy = 2(a + b ) / 3 Therefore f o r area A H- A ? D = 1/2 [ ( a + b)3 + 2(a + b )3J = (a + b ) / 2 This derivation was contributed by Miss Ann B r a i l s f o r d , Assistant, Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics 9 University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1968„ 274 EXPLANATION OF LEGEND USED FOR TABLES XCII TO CVI a. Variable 1 (Total Cost i n Dollars) loOE-04 2 (Throughput i n Bushels) l „ 0 E - 0 4 3 (Capacity i n Bushels) 1.0E-04 4 (Throughput T- Capacity) ? 5 ((Throughput i n Bushels) ( 1 . 0 E - 0 4 ) ) o 6 ((Throughput i n Bushels)(I . O E 3 O 4 )j 7 ((Capacity i n B u s h e l s ) ( 1 . 0 E ) o 8 ((Capacity i n Bushels ) ( 1 . 0 E - 0 4 ) ) 9 Average cost i n cents per bushel 10 Log capacity 11 1 4- (Throughput i n bushels) (1 .0E-04) 12 (Throughput -f Capacity r 13 N = Number of observations 2 R = Co e f f i c i e n t of determination S 0 E 0 = Standard error of estimate a = Intercept Dep = Dependent Indep = Independent b = Regression c o e f f i c i e n t S^ = Standard error of the regression c o e f f i c i e n t t = Computed T t ' value 275 TABLE XCII SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT REPLACEMENT COST ( A l l E l e v a t o r s ) a 1 2 3 4 5 6 N R2 S.E. a Variable Dep. Indep 100 .6507 .3781 .6667 TC T 100 .8120 .2774 .4067 TC C 100 „0000 .6397 1.4471 TC T/C 100 .3579 .2424 .3690 TC T C 100 .6524 .3791 .6094 TC T T2 100 ,7966 .2900 1.1144 TC T T/C 100 .3380 . 2 5 8 8 .1323 TC C T/C 100 .8137 .2790 .9663 TC T u c 100 .8613 .2407 .5945 TC rp2 C 2 100 .8630 . 2 3 9 3 ,4188 TC T C (T/O-100 .8497 .2519 . 3 5 1 1 TC C T/C T 2 C2 100 .8720 .2362 .6968 TC T C &c T 3 c3 7 b .0610 .1487 -.0009 .0309 1.6026 .0692 -.0002 .0746 -.3219 . 1 5 3 5 .1248 .1020 -.3473 -.0007 . 0 4 3 3 -.0006 .0060 .0302 .0776 -.0035 .1260 .0633 .0003 .0003 .0540 .0459 -.1299 .0002 -.0000 - . 0 0 2 8 .0003 . 8 Sb 0 0 2 5 0 0 7 2 0 7 7 0 0 0 4 0 1 7 1 7 0 1 2 6 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 8 0 3 8 6 0069 0 3 1 7 0 0 9 9 0 3 81 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 4 0 1 1 4 0 0 1 9 0 2 6 9 0 3 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 6 0 3 3 0 1123 0 7 2 8 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 4 9 t 1 3 . 5 1 0 8 2 0 . 5 7 5 2 - . 0 1 1 5 6 . 6 9 3 2 9 . 3 3 6 8 5 . 5 1 2 1 - . 7 0 1 4 1 9 . 4 9 0 5 - 8 . 3 4 1 3 2 2 . 3 9 7 9 3 . 9 4 1 6 1 0 . 2 8 7 9 - 9 . 1 1 8 2 - 2 . 9 7 3 3 5 . 9 1 6 2 - 3 . 3 4 2 4 1 2 . 0 2 1 9 5 . 6 0 3 9 8 . 5 3 0 0 - 1 . 8 9 3 0 4 . 6 7 3 5 1 . 5 8 6 7 2 . 2 4 9 9 . 2 0 4 5 1 . 6 3 8 1 . 4 0 6 6 - 1 . 7 8 4 3 . 1 2 3 5 - . 3 9 0 9 - . 2 3 2 7 . 7 4 2 3 Table XCII (Continued), 276 100 .4417 6 . 3 6 6 5 28 .2977 AC T rp2 - 1 . 5 8 2 4 .0262 .2109 . 0 0 4 9 - 7 . 5 0 2 9 5 . 3 6 8 6 100 .5135 5 . 9 7 4 0 26 .3271 AC T rji2 - 1 . 9 2 4 4 .8646 .0275 .2178 .2297 . 0 0 4 0 . - 8 . 8 3 6 8 3 . 7 6 3 5 5 . 9 8 2 9 100 .6121 5 . 3 3 4 4 29 .8837 AC T ? rp<C T 3 - 4 . 0 7 7 6 .1562 - . 0 0 1 7 .4229 . 0 2 0 4 .0003 - 9 . 6 4 1 0 7 . 6 4 5 9 - 6 . 4 9 3 6 100 .9465 1 . 9 8 1 0 3 .0161 AC T C 1/T - . 2 3 3 5 .7929 7 1 . 0 7 5 6 .0386 . 0 7 6 0 2 . 1 4 0 4 - 6 . 0 5 7 5 1 0 . 4 3 6 3 33 .2061 100 .7069 4 . 6 6 1 0 38 . 4 2 2 4 AC T C - 4 . 6 4 7 8 . 9 9 8 2 .1669 - . 0 0 1 9 .3836 . 1800 .0180 . 0 0 0 2 - 1 2 . 1 1 6 5 5 . 5 4 4 7 9 . 2 9 1 3 - 7 . 9 1 8 8 100 .7108 4 . 6 3 0 3 42 .5312 AC T T/C T 3 - 3 . 5 0 2 8 - 3 . 6 2 6 7 .1395 - . 0 0 1 6 . 3 8 0 8 . 6 3 7 0 .0180 . 0 0 0 2 - 9 . 1 9 9 9 - 5 . 6 9 3 4 7 . 7 5 5 0 - 6 . 7 3 4 1 aTC - (Total cost i n dollars) 1.0E-04 AC = Average cost i n cents T = (Throughput i n bushels) 1.0E-04 C = (Capacity i n bushels) 1.0E-04 T/C = (Throughput Capacity) T2 =((Throughput i n bushels)( 1 , 0 E - 0 4 ) ) 2 T3 = ((Throughput i n bushels)(1.OE - 0 4 ) )3 C 2 = ((Capacity i n bushels)( 1.OE - 0 4 ) ) 2 C3 = ((Capacity i n bushels)( 1.OE - 0 4)P (T/C)3 = (Throughput Capacity)3 LC = Log capacity 1/T = 1 (Throughput i n bushels)(1.OE -04) N = Number of observations R 2 = Co e f f i c i e n t of determination SE = Standard error of estimate a = Intercept Dep = Dependent variable Indep. = Independent variable b = regression c o e f f i c i e n t S.^  = Standard error of the regression c o e f f i c i e n t t = computed ;'t'' value 2 7 7 TABLE XCIII SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COSTS FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT REPLACEMENT COSTS (Less Than 4 0 , 0 0 0 Bushels Cap a c i t y ) 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 N R 2 S.E. a Variable Dep. Indep. b Sb t 27 0 . 0 2 8 2 0 . 1 4 2 6 0 . 8 9 8 5 T C T 0 . 0 0 8 2 0 . 0 0 9 6 O .85 I I 27 . 1 7 3 6 . 1 3 1 5 - 5 . 6 3 9 2 T C L C 1.45^7 . 6 3 6 4 2 . 2 9 2 0 27 . 0 0 1 3 . 1 4 4 6 . 9 4 0 5 T C T / C .0051 . 0 2 8 1 .1818 2 7 . 2 8 8 3 . 1 2 4 6 ' . 0 1 3 0 T C T C .0159 . 2 5 2 9 . 0 0 8 8 . 0 3 5 4 1.8075 2 . 9 6 1 9 2 7 . 2 7 2 6 . 1 2 5 9 -7.3883 T C T L C . 0 1 6 2 1 . 3 2 3 0 . 0 0 9 0 . 6 4 1 9 1 . 3 0 7 2 2 . 8 4 0 2 27 . 3 0 0 8 . 1 2 3 5 . 8 4 6 7 T C T T / C .1104 - . 3 0 2 3 . 0 3 4 4 . 0 9 9 0 3 . 2 0 6 1 - 3 . 0 5 9 0 27 . 4 7 6 9 . 1 0 9 1 . 2 1 6 0 T C T C ( T / C ) 3 ' . 0 4 3 8 . 1 5 7 2 - ' .0044 . 0 1 2 4 . 0 3 1 8 . 0 0 1 5 3 . 5 3 7 8 1 . 9 2 0 9 - 2 . 8 7 9 4 2 7 .8665 5 . 0 3 1 0 6 2 . 8 6 9 0 A C T T 2 •1 . 4 4 5 7 . 4 7 6 6 1 . 1 1 0 6 . 0 7 4 0 - 9 . 4 0 5 2 6.4454 27 . 9 7 6 9 2 . 1 3 7 1 - 1 . 8 4 3 6 A C T C 1 / T - . 4 3 4 7 3 . 0 1 2 4 6 7 . 7 0 8 7 . 2 2 7 0 1.4699 3 . 6 7 2 2 - 2 . 1 3 5 5 2 . 0 4 9 4 1 8 . 4 3 3 4 2 7 . 9 7 4 6 2 . 2 4 0 9 84.8704 A C T 2 3 . 7 5 4 9 2 . 5 3 9 9 - .0384 1 . 4 3 2 8 . 2 1 1 0 . 0 0 8 9 -I6.58OO 1 2 . 0 3 5 2 - 9 . 3 9 8 0 27 . 8 7 2 0 5 . 0 3 1 2 51.0999 AC T rp2 1 0 . 4 6 8 8 3 . 4 7 0 3 .4856 1 . 1 1 0 9 3 . 4 7 3 7 . 0 7 4 5 - 9 . 1 2 3 6 . 9 9 9 0 6 . 5 1 8 8 2 7 . 8 7 1 5 5 . 0 4 1 1 6 3 . 0 4 2 2 A C T T / C T 2 - 9 . 3 8 6 5 -3.9952 . 4 9 6 8 1.5750 4.2040 . 0 7 7 1 - 5 . 9 5 9 7 - . 9 5 0 3 6.4451 27 . 9 7 7 8 2 . 1 4 2 7 7 5 . 7 3 2 2 A C T rp2 T 3 23.6402 2 . 6 3 3 0 2 . 5 2 7 1 - . 0 8 7 6 1 . 3 7 1 3 1 . 4 8 1 6 . 2 0 1 9 . 0 0 8 6 - 1 7 . 2 4 3 4 1.7771 12.5159 - 1 0 . 2 3 1 9 2 7 . 9 7 6 8 2 . 1 9 2 3 8 4 . 7 4 8 9 AC T T / C T f 2 2 . 9 2 0 1 - 2 . 6 1 3 4 2 . 5 3 1 1 - 0 . 0 8 7 5 1 . 5 1 9 2 1 . 8 3 3 5 . 2 0 6 6 0 . 0 0 8 8 - 1 5 . 0 8 7 4 - 1 . 4 2 5 3 12.2535 - 9 . 9 8 0 7 aSource; See Table X C I I o 278 TABLE XCIV SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT REPLACEMENT COSTS ( 4 0 , 0 0 0 to 5 9 , 9 9 9 Bushels Capacity) a 1 N 2 R2 3 S.E. 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep. Indep. 7 b ^  3 s b 9 t 23 0.2506 0 . 1 6 5 9 0.8004 TC T 0.0309 0.0116 2.6499 23 .3890 .1498 - 6 . 8 8 2 7 TC LC 1.7070 .4669 3.6562 23 . 0 2 9 8 .1888 1 . 0 0 1 9 TC T/C .0491 .0612 0.8027 23 .5446 .1325 -.2110 TC T C . 0 2 2 8 .1377 .0096 .0383 2.3869 3.5929 2 3 . 5 2 8 7 . 1 3 4 8 -6.0508 TC T LC .0236 1 . 4 7 8 8 .0097 . 4 3 0 5 2 . 4 3 4 9 3 . 4 3 5 2 2 3 . 2 8 1 6 .1664 .8544 TC T T/C .0395 - .0640 . 0 1 4 9 . 0 6 8 9 2.6480 - .9295 2 3 . 5 4 6 5 .1357 . 2 2 3 0 TC T ( T / C ) 3 .0245 .13412 - . 0 0 0 9 .0115 . 0 4 1 2 . 0 0 3 1 2.1367 3 . 2 5 7 4 - . 2 8 2 7 2 3 .8440 1 . 7 0 7 4 3 5 . 9 5 3 7 AC T T2 - 3 . 9 0 5 7 . 1 3 9 5 . 6 1 9 4 .0304 - 6 . 3 0 5 5 4.5853 2 3 . 9 2 1 2 1.2448 - . 1 7 6 6 AC T C 1/T - . 2 3 1 2 1.4053 6 8 . 7 4 0 9 .1852 . 3 6 2 3 11.3058 -1.2481 3 . 8 7 8 9 6.0802 2 3 . - . 8 6 8 6 1 . 6 0 7 8 4 6 . 7 9 7 7 AC T f -8.0566 . 6 0 8 9 - . 0 1 6 2 2 . 2 7 6 9 .2505 ...0086 -3.5385 2 . 4 3 0 6 - 1 . 8 8 6 1 2 3 .8959 1 . 4 3 0 9 2 9 . 1 1 5 6 AC T rp2 - 3 . 6 9 6 4 1 . 2 9 4 5 . 1 2 5 3 . 5 2 3 5 . 4 2 0 5 . 0 2 5 9 - 7 . 0 6 0 7 3.0787 4.8333 2 3 . 8 4 6 8 1 . 7 3 6 2 3 6 . 2 3 5 3 AC T T/C T 2 -3.8331 - . 4 2 0 7 .1387 • . 6 4 1 9 . 7 1 8 9 .0310 - 5 . 9 7 1 2 -v .5822 4 . 4 7 8 9 2 3 . 9 2 6 8 1 . 2 3 3 0 4 0 . 8 7 8 1 AC T C T 2 T3 - 8 . 3 4 8 5 1.3749 . 6 5 1 9 - .0181 1 . 7 4 7 7 . 3 6 3 5 . 1 9 2 4 ..0066 - 4 . 7 7 6 8 3 . 7 8 2 5 3.3875 - 2 . 7 5 5 2 2 3 . 8 6 9 6 1 . 6 4 5 3 4 6 . 6 7 5 1 AC T T/G T 2 T3 - 7 . 8 9 8 6 - . 2 5 9 1 . 5 9 5 6 -0.0157 2 . 3 6 7 3 . 6 8 7 3 . 2 5 8 8 0.0088 - 3 . 3 3 6 5 - 0 . 3 7 7 0 2 . 3 0 1 6 -1.7770 a_ See Table XCII. 279 TABLE XCV SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT REPLACEMENT COSTS (60,000 to 99,999 Bushels Capacity) 3 1 N 2 R 2 3 S.E. 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep. Indep, 7 b » 8 Sb 9 t 27 0.3723 0.2734 1.0095 TC T 0.0320 O.OO83 3.8510 27 .2784 .2985 -16.7036 TC LC 3.7345 1.2025 3.1057 27 .2482 .3047 1.0807 TC T/C .1976 .0688 2.8729 27 .4877 .2567 .0384 TC T C .0257 .1443 .0081 .0621 3.1706 2.3250 27 .4926 .2555 -11.5361 TC T LC .0257 2.5982 .0081 1.0893 3.1831 2,3852 27 .4973 .2588 1.0685 TC T .0925 .0284 -2.2209 27 -.5311 .2509 .3350 TC T C , (T/C) 3 .0554 .0671 - .0127 .0219 .0806 .0087 2.5354 0,8331 -1.4531 27 .8157 2.1857 27.9179 AC T 2 -1.6303 .0330 .2650 .0080 -6.3415 4.1489 27 " .8864 1.7534 2.6019 AC T C 1/T - .1852 .3170 67,9513 .0914 .4257 10.8639 -2.0258 1.9194 6.2548 27 .8466 2.0370 33.7214 AC T T 2 P -3.1142 .1312 -. .0014 .7104 .0462 .0009 -4.3837 2.8383 -2.1527 27 .8379 2.0940 22.2175 AC T C T 2 -1.7803 .9073 .0849 .2600 .5114 .0077 -6 .8464 1.7743 4.5339 27 .8347 2.1146 28.1617 AC T T/C T 2 -1.3012 -2.3544 .0325 .3466 1.7564 .0077 -3.7547 -1.6251 4.2189 27 .8678 1.9340 28.0584 AC T T3 -3.1874 .8856 .1313 - .0019 .6756 .4724 .0439 .0009 -4.7176 1.8747 2.9931 -2.2281 27 .8650 1.9539 33.9065 AC T T /C i -2.7275 -2.8102 .1293 -0.0019 .7171 1.6230 .0443 0.0009 -3.8035 -1.7315 2.9263 -2.2229 aSee Table XCII. TABLE XCVI 2 8 0 SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT REPLACEMENT COSTS (Greater than 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 Bushels Capacity) 1 N 2 R2 3 S.E. 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep. Indep. 7 b 8 sb 9 t 2 3 0 . 4 7 3 0 0 . 4 3 9 2 1 . 4 9 7 6 TC T 0 . 0 3 9 4 0 . 0 0 9 1 4 . 3 4 1 5 2 3 . 4 5 6 1 . 4 4 6 2 0 . 2 1 8 7 TC C . 1 6 3 8 . 0 3 9 0 4 . 1 9 6 1 2 3 . 1 6 8 5 . 5 5 1 6 1 . 7 5 6 2 TC T/C . 3 5 7 3 . 1 7 3 2 2 . 0 6 2 8 2 3 . 6 0 6 6 . 3 8 8 8 . 4 1 9 7 TC T C . 0 2 6 3 . 1 0 4 7 . 0 0 9 5 . 0 4 0 2 2 . 7 6 7 0 2 . 6 0 6 6 2 3 . 5 9 0 4 . 3 9 6 7 - 1 4 . 4 2 6 0 TC T LC . 0 2 8 6 3 . 1 6 3 2 . 0 0 9 4 1 . 3 2 1 0 3 . 0 5 0 3 2 . 3 9 4 5 2 3 . 5 9 7 8 . 3 9 3 1 1 . 7 6 1 4 TC T T/C • . 0 7 3 5 - . 6 0 1 3 , 0 1 5 9 . 2 4 1 4 4 . 6 2 0 1 - 2 . 4 9 0 7 2 3 ' . 5 9 7 5 . 3 9 3 2 - . 2 6 5 2 TC C T/C . 1 5 9 1 • . 3 2 7 8 . 0 3 4 5 . 1 2 3 6 4 . 6 1 7 6 2 . 6 5 1 7 2 3 . 6 2 9 2 . 3 8 7 3 0 . 8 1 7 4 TC T (T/C) 3 . 0 5 2 1 . 0 4 8 0 - . 0 3 1 5 . 0 2 5 8 . 0 6 6 8 . 0 2 9 3 2 . 0 1 8 2 O . 7 2 5 6 - 1 . 0 7 5 1 2 3 . 6 8 2 5 2 . 6 1 5 9 2 5 . 8 3 5 6 AC r p 2 - . 8 9 6 9 . 0 1 0 4 . 2 0 5 5 . 0 0 3 6 - 4 . 3 6 4 9 2 . 9 9 2 7 2 3 . 7 3 5 1 2 . 4 5 1 4 2 . 8 3 4 1 AC T C l/T - . 1 0 4 5 . 3 7 1 6 1 2 3 . 8 8 9 4 . 1 3 0 0 • . 2 7 7 7 4 8 . 1 7 7 9 - 0 . 8 0 4 1 1 . 3 3 3 1 2 . 5 7 1 5 2 3 ' . 7 0 2 2 2 , 5 9 9 2 3 3 . 6 5 0 6 AC T 2 m A-I T3 - 1 . 9 4 5 6 . 0 5 0 1 . 0 0 0 4 . 9 5 7 0 . 0 3 5 6 . 0 0 0 4 - 2 . 0 3 3 1 1 . 4 0 8 3 - 1 . 1 2 1 7 2 3 . 7 0 5 7 2 . 5 8 4 2 2 0 . 5 1 8 8 AC T - . 8 1 3 1 . 3 7 1 7 . . 0 0 8 1 . 2 1 4 3 . 3 0 4 1 . 0 0 4 0 - 3 . 7 9 4 4 1 . 2 2 2 3 2 . 0 1 1 8 2 3 .6999 2 , 6 0 9 4 2 4 . 6 4 8 9 AC T T/G T 2 - . 5 7 5 0 - 2 . 2 9 1 6 . 0 0 7 0 . 3 6 9 0 2 . 1 8 4 5 . 0 0 4 8 - 1 . 5 5 8 1 - 1 . 0 4 9 0 1 . 4 3 6 3 281 Table XCVI (Continued). 23 0.7348 2.5200 29.0845 2 3 . 7 4 1 4 2 . 4 8 8 4 3 6 . 1 3 1 6 aSee Table XCII. A C T - 2 . 0 9 2 5 C 0 0 . 4 4 8 5 T 2 . 0 5 6 7 T ^ - . 0 0 0 0 A C T - 2 . 0 1 5 4 T / C - 3 . 7 0 6 1 T ; . 0 6 7 0 T ^ - 0 . 0 0 0 7 0 . 9 3 3 1 - 2 . 2 4 2 6 . 3 0 1 5 1 . 4 8 7 4 . 0 3 4 8 1 . 6 2 9 6 . 0 0 0 4 - 1 . 4 0 7 0 . 9 1 7 1 - 2 . 1 9 9 5 2 . 2 4 3 1 - 1 . 6 5 2 3 . 0 3 5 6 1.8S18 . 0 0 0 4 - 1 . 7 0 0 7 282 TABLE XGVII SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT STANDARDIZED BOOK COST ( A l l E l e v a t o r s ) a 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 N R 2 S.E. a Variable Dep. Indep. b s b t 100 0.7346 0.1881 0.5211 TC T 0.0370 0.0023 16.4687 100 .6638 .2117 ^.4573 TC C .0767 .0055 13 .9088 100 .0265 .3602 , .8564 TC T/C .0708 .0434 1.6339 100 .8094 .1602 .4190 TC T C ,0242 .037-9 .0028 .0061 8.6101 6.171S 100 .7849 . .1702 .6712 TC T T/C .0416'' - .1079 .0023 .0226 18.4956 -4.7666 100 .7612 .1793 .1539 TC C T/C .0820 .1380 .0048 .0219 17.2756 6.2919 100 .7933 .1677. .6121 TC T T/C T 2 .0525 - .1181 - .0003 .0060 .0229 .0001 8.8036 -5.1561 -1.9723 100 .7952 .1669 .4863 TC T 2 T 2 C 2 .0350 - . 0 0 0 2 .0018 .0057 .0001 .0004 6.1793 -1.8145 5.2619 100 .8104 .1606 .4314 TC T C -(T/C) 3 .0258 .0347 - .0009 .0036 .0077 .0013 7.1342 4,5153 -0.7036 100 .8120 ' . 1 6 0 8 0.1991 TC C T /C c 2 .1136 .0594 .0004 - .0034 .0172 .0255 .0001 .0010 6.6088 2.3329 4.9865 -3.2852 100 .8205 O.1588 0.1245 TC T C T 2 \ C 2 C 3 .0094 .1800 .0008 - .0001 - .0152. .0005 .0143 .0661 .0007 .0000 .0077 .0003 .O.6588 2.7208 1.1415 -1.1960 -1.9586 1.7266 100 0.5174 3.9911 20.1332 AC tjl2 -1.1395 0.0186 .1322 0.0031 -8.6186 6 .0740 Table XCVII (Continued) 100 0.5472 3.8861 19.2775 AC 100 .5866 3.7129 22.2219 AC 100 .6798 3.2680 27.7590 AC 100 .9212 1.6215 3.8100 AC 100 .7244 3.0477 27.0831 AC 100 0.7263 3.0370 28.9849 AC 283 T C T 2 T T T>2 i 3 T C 1/T T rp2 T 3 T T / C T 2 T3 -1 .2880 0.1417 0.3754 .1494 .0192 .0030 - .9476 .1320 -2 .0328 .5070 .0158 •.0029 -2.7818 •.2591 .1042 .0125 - .0011 .0002 - .1369 .0316 .3241 .0622 46.0595 1.7521 -3.0455 .2508 .4617 .1177 .1091 .0117 - .0012 .0002 -2.5156 .2497 -1.6795 .4178 .0964 • 0118 -0.0011 0.0002 -9.0922 2.5122 6.4061 -7.1792 -4 .0094 5.4638 -10.7360 8.3214 -6.9764 -4.3386 5.2109 26.2890 -12.1420 3.9218 9.2898 -7.8154 -10.0732 -4.0197 8.1734 -6.9632 aSource; See Table XCII. 284 TABLE XCVIII SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT STANDARDIZED BOOK COST (Less than 4 0 , 0 0 0 Bushels Capacity) a 1 N 2 R 2 3 S.E, 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep. Indep. 7 b 8 Sb 9 t 27 0.1386 0 . 1 2 4 8 0 . 5 7 1 4 TC T 0 . 0 1 6 9 O . O O 8 4 2 . 0 0 5 9 27 . 0 7 0 0 .1296 - 3 . 2 0 9 0 TC LC . 3 6 0 6 . 6 2 7 3 1 . 3 7 1 9 27 . 0 6 6 5 .1299 0 6 & 2 £ 4 TC T/C . 0 3 3 7 . 0 2 5 2 1 . 3 3 4 8 27 . 3 1 2 4 . 1 1 3 8 -.1010 TC T C . 0 2 2 8 . 1 9 2 0 . 0 0 8 0 . 0 7 8 0 3 . 8 3 0 1 2 . 4 6 2 6 2 7 .3206 . 1 1 3 1 0 . 5 3 2 1 TC T T/C . 0 9 4 4 -. . 2 2 9 8 . 0 3 1 5 . 0 9 0 1 2 . 9 9 5 9 - 2 . 5 3 5 3 27 . 3 9 2 7 . 1 0 9 2 .0221 TC T C . (T/C ) . 0 3 9 6 . 1 3 4 0 -.0027 . 0 1 2 4 . 0 8 1 9 . 0 0 1 5 3 . 2 0 1 4 1 . 6 3 5 3 - 1 . 7 4 3 7 2 7 . 8 4 7 2 3 . 5 1 9 2 41.7359 AC T r p 2 - 6 . 7 9 6 8 . 3 1 1 9 . 7 7 6 9 . 0 : 1 7 - 8 . 7 4 8 7 6 . 0 3 0 2 27 .9557 1 . 9 3 5 7 - 1 . 3 8 7 3 AC T C 1/T -.2777 2 . 2 1 5 0 4 4 . 1 5 2 5 . 2 0 5 6 1 . 3 3 1 3 3 . 3 2 6 0 - 1 . 3 5 0 7 1 . 6 6 3 8 1 3 . 2 7 5 0 27 .9572 1 . 9 0 2 0 5 6 . 2 4 7 5 AC T T? T J - 1 5 . 5 7 5 2 1 . 6 7 2 8 - O . O 5 8 3 1 . 2 1 6 1 . 1 7 9 1 . 0 0 7 6 - 1 2 . 8 0 7 6 9 . 3 3 8 6 - 7 . 6 9 1 6 27 .8540 3 . 5 1 3 1 3 3 . 1 7 7 0 AC T C T 2 - 6 . 8 1 3 6 2 . 5 2 3 7 . 3 1 8 5 . 7 7 5 7 2 . 4 2 5 6 . 0 5 2 0 - 8 . 7 8 3 5 I . 0 4 0 5 6 . 1 2 2 2 2 7 . 8 5 3 8 3 . 5 1 6 2 4 1 . 8 6 5 5 AC T T/C T 2 - 6 . 0 0 3 9 - 2 . 9 9 1 0 . 2 2 7 0 1 . 0 9 8 6 2 . 9 3 2 3 . 0 5 3 3 - 5 . 4 6 5 2 - 1 . 0 2 0 0 6 . 0 8 2 6 27 .9614 1 . 8 4 7 4 4 9 . 4 0 2 6 AC T C 2 T T 3 - 1 5 . 4 9 3 8 1.9722 1 . 6 6 3 3 - . 0 5 7 7 1 . 8 2 3 3 1.2774 . 1 7 4 1 . 0 0 7 4 - 1 3 . 1 0 4 4 1 . 5 4 3 9 9 . 5 5 4 0 - 7 . 8 2 1 3 2 7 0 . 9 6 0 4 . 8 7 1 0 5 6 . 1 5 0 7 AC T T/C T 2  T 3 - 1 4 . 9 1 0 3 -2.0317 I . 6 6 5 8 - 0 . 0 5 7 6 1 . 2 9 6 5 1 . 5 6 4 7 . 1 7 6 3 0 . 0 0 7 5 - 1 1 . 5 0 0 5 - 1 . 3 3 0 4 9 . 4 4 9 5 - 7 . 6 9 6 4 aSee Table XCII. 2 8 5 TABLE XCIX SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT STANDARDIZED BOOK COST v a ( 4 0 , 0 0 0 to 5 9 , 9 9 9 bushels capacity) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 N R 2 S.E. a Variable Dep. Indep. b s b t 2 3 0.0708 O . I 5 6 4 0 . 7 0 8 1 TC T 0 . 0 1 3 9 0 . 0 1 1 0 1 . 2 6 4 9 2 3 . 2 3 1 4 , 1 4 2 2 - 4 . 3 7 1 7 TC LC 1 . 1 1 4 7 . 4 4 3 1 2 . 5 1 4 6 2 3 . 0 3 4 0 . 1 5 9 4 . 7 4 9 8 TC T/C . 0 4 4 5 . 0 5 1 7 O . 8 6 0 4 2 3 . 2 7 8 0 . 1 4 1 3 . 2 8 9 1 TC T C . 0 0 8 2 . 0 0 7 9 . 0 1 0 2 . 0 4 0 8 . 8 0 2 4 2 . 3 9 6 0 2 3 . 0 7 1 4 . 1 6 0 2 . 7 0 1 6 TC T T/C . 0 1 2 9 . 0 0 7 6 - . 0 1 4 3 . 0 6 6 3 . 8 9 7 0 . 1 1 4 9 2 3 . 2 8 2 9 . 1 4 4 4 „ 2 7 3 0 TC T (T/C) 3 . 0 0 5 9 . 1 0 2 6 . 0 0 1 2 . 0 1 2 2 . 0 4 3 9 . 0 0 3 3 . 4 8 2 0 2 . 3 4 1 8 . 3 5 9 8 2 3 . 7 5 5 8 1 . 7 3 3 4 2 5 . 2 7 9 7 AC T 2 - 2 . 4 2 8 7 . 0 7 6 1 . 6 2 8 8 . 0 3 0 9 - 3 . 8 6 2 2 2 . 4 6 3 0 2 3 . 8 0 3 8 1 . 5 9 3 9 5 . 6 7 4 0 AC T C 1/T - . 5 3 6 7 1 . 1 2 5 4 3 1 . 0 4 1 4 . 2 3 7 1 . 4 6 3 9 . 1 4 . 4 7 5 9 - 2 . 2 6 3 3 2 . 4 2 6 0 2 . 1 4 4 7 2 3 . 7 5 9 5 1 . 7 6 4 6 2 8 , 7 4 0 4 AC T T 2 T 3 - 3 . 7 5 3 5 . 2 2 5 9 - . 0 0 5 2 2 . 4 9 8 9 . 2 7 4 9 . 0 0 9 4 - 1 . 5 0 2 0 . 8 2 1 6 - . . 5 4 8 4 2 3 . 8 0 7 9 1 . 3 7 7 3 1 9 , 7 2 0 8 AC T C T 2 - 2 . 2 5 0 6 1 . 0 5 2 3 . 0 6 4 5 . 5 7 7 1 . 4 6 3 5 . 0 2 8 6 - 3 , 9 1 3 7 2 . 2 7 0 4 2 . 2 5 7 6 2 3 . 7 6 5 7 1 . 7 4 2 0 2 4 . 8 4 6 6 AC T T/C T 2 - 2 . 5 4 0 3 . 6 4 7 1 . 0 7 7 3 . 6 4 4 1 ' . 7 2 1 3 . 0 3 1 1 - 3 . 9 4 4 2 . 8 9 7 1 2 . 4 8 8 3 2 3 . 8 1 4 3 1 . 5 9 3 2 2 4 . 0 8 1 2 AC T C T 2 T 3 - 3 . 9 8 3 1 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 2 5 9 7 . 0 0 6 7 2 . 2 5 8 3 . 4 6 9 7 . 2 4 8 7 . 0 0 8 5 - 1 . 7 6 3 8 2 . 3 0 4 0 1 . 0 4 4 5 - . 7 9 0 4 TABLE XCIX (Continued) 286 23 0 . 7 7 1 4 1.7678 29 .0779 AC T - 4 . 1 8 3 1 T/C .7126 T S .2625 T3 -O.OO64 2 . 5 4 3 6 - 1 . 6 4 6 5 . 7 3 8 5 0 . 9 6 4 9 . 2 7 8 0 . 9 4 4 1 0 . 0 0 9 5 - 0 . 6 7 0 3 See Table XCII. TABLE G 287 SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT STANDARDIZED BOOK COST (60,000 to 9 9 , 9 9 9 Bushels Ca p a c i t y ) a 1 N 2 R 2 3 S.E.. 4 a 5 Variable Dep. Indep. 7 b 8 Sb 9 t 2 7 .5478 . 2 0 5 7 .6030 TC T 0 . 0 3 3 7 0.0061 5 . 5 0 3 4 27 .1771 .2775 -11 .5373 ' TC LC 2 . 5 9 3 6 1.1130 2.3199 2 7 .4355 . 2 2 9 9 .6417 TC T/C . 2 2 7 9 .0519 4 . 3 9 1 7 2 7 . 5 7 5 7 .2034 .1877 TC T C .0311 .0617 .0064 .0492 4 . 8 3 6 4 1.2543 27 .5845 .2012 .6332 TC T T/C .0648 - .2441 .0220 .1670 2.9378 -1.4621 27 .5980 . 2 0 2 2 .0023 TC T ( T / C ) 3 . 0 1 2 5 ,1100 .0079 .0176 ,0649 .0070 .7105 1.6944 1.1308 27 .7919 1 .6552 20 .3047 AC T T 2 -1.3422 .0289 .2007 .0060 6 . 6 8 9 3 4 . 3 0 5 9 27 .8206 1 .5701 1 .5679 AC T C l / T - .0721 .4846 52.0962 .0819 .3812 9 . 7 2 7 9 - .8806 1.2714 5 . 3 5 5 4 27 .8023 1 .6480 2 3 . 2 0 4 2 AC rp2 T 3 - 1 . 9 3 5 1 .0695 - .0008 .5747 .0374 .0007 -3.3670 1.3596 1.1002 27 .8101 1 .6153 17 , 1 2 8 3 AC T C T2 -1.4067 . 5 8 5 1 . 0 3 0 1 .2006 .3945 . 0 0 5 9 -7.0131 1.4834 5 . 0 8 2 2 27 .8043 1 .6395 20 .9453 AC T T/C T 2 -1.1236 -1.6465 . 0 2 8 6 .2637 1.3618 ,0060 -4 . 1 3 1 6 -1.2091 4 . 7 9 8 8 27 .3199 1 .6082 19 .5193 AC T C T 2 T3 -1.9827 .5762 .0696 - .0008 .5618 .3928 .3928 .0007 -3 . 5292 1.4670 1.9084 1.9170 27 0.8145 1 .6324 23 . 3 1 1 5 AC T T/C T2 T3 -1.7110 - I . 6 2 8 3 .0637 -0.0008 .5991 1.3560 ,0370 0.0007 - 2 . 8 5 6 1 -1.2008 1.8547 -1.0960 aSee Table SCII. TABLE CI SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT STANDARDIZED BOOK COST (Greater than 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 Bushels C a p a c i t y ) a 1 N 2 R 2 3 S.E. 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep; Indep 7 b • 8 s b 9 t 2 3 0 . 7 3 2 1 0 . 1 7 2 0 0 . 8 3 0 5 TC T 0.0270 O . O O 3 6 7 . 5 7 5 9 23 .4212 . 2 5 2 9 . 2 8 7 9 TC C . 0 8 6 5 .0221 3 . 9 0 8 9 23 . 3 8 4 4 . 2 6 0 8 . 9 2 0 3 TC T/C . 2 9 6 5 . 0 8 1 9 3.6216 2 3 . 7 8 4 6 . 1 5 8 0 . 4 5 9 5 TC T C .0224 . 0 3 6 0 . 0 0 3 9 . 0 1 6 3 5 . 8 O 8 5 2 . 2 0 6 7 23 . 7 8 3 0 . 1 5 8 6 . 9 2 3 1 TC T T/C . 0 3 2 9 - . 2 1 0 9 . 0 0 6 4 . 0 9 7 4 6 . 0 6 0 4 - 2 . 1 6 5 1 2 3 . 7 8 4 7 . 1 6 2 1 . 4 7 2 3 TC T C . (T/C) J . 0 2 3 3 .0342 - . 0 0 1 0 . 0 1 0 8 . 0 2 7 7 .0123 . 2 . 1 5 1 8 1 . 2 3 4 8 - . 0 8 2 6 23 . 7 8 5 7 1 . 2 0 2 6 1 5 . 8 0 9 2 AC T - . 5 7 0 8 . 0 0 6 9 . 0 9 4 5 .0016 - 0 . 0 4 2 4 4 . 2 3 1 5 2 3 . 8 8 1 3 . 9 1 8 5 - . 0 9 3 0 AC T C 1/T . 0 2 3 2 . 0 8 6 7 1 0 4 . 6 0 2 4 . 0 4 8 7 . 1 0 4 0 1 8 . 0 5 2 2 . 4 7 7 2 . 8 3 3 5 5 . 7 9 4 4 23 . 8 6 4 4 - . 9 8 1 5 2 4 . 5 4 4 3 AC T 2 rp<C T3 - 1 . 7 4 2 9 . 0 5 1 3 - . 0 0 0 5 . 3 6 1 4 . 0 1 3 4 . 0 0 0 2 - 4 . 8 2 3 2 3 . 8 1 8 7 - 3 . 3 2 0 0 23 . 7 9 1 9 1.2161 1 4 . 2 7 9 1 AC T C T 2 - . 5 4 6 7 . 1 0 7 0 . 0 0 6 3 . 1 0 0 8 . 1 4 3 1 . 0 0 1 9 - 5 . 4 2 1 4 . 7 4 7 5 3 . 3 1 5 4 23 . 7 8 6 1 1 . 2 3 2 9 1 5 . 7 1 7 4 AC T T 2 - . 5 4 5 9 - . 1 7 7 4 . 0 0 6 7 . 1 7 4 4 1 . 0 3 2 2 . 0 0 2 3 - 3 . 1 3 0 7 . . 1 7 1 9 2 . 9 1 0 8 23 . 8 8 1 6 .9422 2 2 . 6 8 7 9 AC T rp 2 T3 - 1 . 8 0 2 7 . 1 8 2 4 . 0 5 4 0 - . 0 0 0 5 . 3 4 2 9 . 1 1 2 8 . 0 1 3 0 . 0 0 0 1 5 . 1 6 7 1 1 . 6 1 7 2 4 . 1 5 0 9 - 3 . 6 9 3 9 2 3 . 8 8 1 7 . 9 4 1 8 . 2 5 . 4 6 6 9 AC T T/C T 3 T 3 - 1 . 7 6 8 9 - 1 . 3 7 8 4 . 0 5 7 6 0 . 0 0 0 6 . 3 4 7 1 . 8 4 9 0 . 0 1 3 5 . 0 0 0 2 - 5 . 0 9 6 0 - 1 . 6 2 3 6 4 . 2 7 7 6 - 3 . 8 1 5 4 aSee Table XCII. 289 TABLE CII SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT OPERATING COST ( A l l E l e v a t o r s ) a 1 N 2 R 2 3 S.E. 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep. Indep. 7 b 8 s b 9 t 101 0.7436 0.1159 0.4210 TC T C ' .0234 0.0014 16.9454 101 .5301 .1570 .4170 TC C .0432 . 0 0 4 1 1 0 . 5 6 7 9 101 . 0 5 3 9 .2227 .5971 TC T/C .0634 .0267 2.3755 .7633 .1118 .3872 TC T C .0193 .0124 .0020 . 0 0 4 3 9 . 8 4 7 4 2.8940 101 .7669 .1111 . 4 8 4 6 TC T T/C -. 0 2 5 4 .0461 .0015 .0147 17'. 3127 -3.1275 101 .6651 .1332 . 1 9 3 4 TC C T/C .0472 .1019 .0035 .0162 13.3728 6 . 2 8 4 9 101 .7672 .1116 .4768 TC T T/C -T -. 0 2 6 8 .0474 .0001 . 0 0 4 0 .0152 .0001 6 . 7 6 2 3 -3.1214 -0.3869 101 . 7 5 7 5 .1139 .4271 TC rp2 5 2 .0204 .0001 .0006 .0039 .0001 .0002 5.2375 - .1305 2.3371 101 .7702 .1109 .4072 TC T C (T/C)3. . 0 2 1 9 . 0 0 7 2 . 0 0 1 4 .0025 .0053 .0009 8.7564 1.3569 -1 . 6 3 7 9 101 .7642 .1129 .2771 TC C T 2 C 2 -.0637 .0306 .0004 .0024 .0120 .0178 .0001 .0007 5 . 2 9 3 4 1.7129 6 . 3 5 0 7 -3.3104 101 .7732 .1119 .4241 TC T <p2 T3 $ -.0162 .0035 .0001 .0001 . 0 0 3 7 .0002 .0101 .0464 . 0 0 0 5 .0001 . 0 0 5 4 .0002 1.6023 - .0752 - . 1 5 9 9 .6642 .6801 - .9555 101 .5772 2.3980 1 5 . 3 0 5 4 AC rp2 .9423 . 0 1 5 5 .0960 .0022 -0.3178 6.9559 101 0.5852 2 . 8 8 5 3 1 5 . 4 5 5 6 AC T -1 c 2 T 2 0 .0018 . 1 5 1 1 . 0 1 5 7 .1050 .1107 0.0022 -9.5380 1.3656 7.0675 Table CII (Continued) 290 1 0 1 0 . 6 2 1 7 2 . 7 5 5 3 1 7 . 0 9 3 1 AC 1 0 1 . 7 5 1 2 2 . 2 3 4 7 2 1 . 9 6 9 4 AC 1 0 1 . 9 2 3 8 1 . 2 3 7 0 3 . 3 2 1 6 AC 1 0 1 . 7 6 8 1 2 . 1 6 8 6 2 1 . 6 4 3 4 AC 1 0 1 0 . 7 7 7 7 2 , 1 2 3 1 2 2 . 6 8 5 1 AC T T3 T T 3 T T/C ?3 - 0 . 8 2 7 0 - 1 . 2 6 7 0 0 . 0 1 3 3 - 2 . 2 6 7 4 0 . 0 8 4 5 - 0 . 0 0 0 9 T -0.0794 C 0 . 1 1 2 4 1/T 35.3974 - 2 , 3 9 4 5 0 . 0 2 1 1 0 . 0 8 6 9 - 0 . 0 0 1 0 - 2 . 1 1 2 4 - 0 . 9 3 5 5 0 . 0 8 0 0 - 0 . 0 0 0 9 0 . 0 9 3 0 . 3 7 5 0 . 0 0 2 2 . 1 7 7 1 .0086 . 0 0 0 1 . 0 2 4 0 ' . 0 4 7 3 1 . 3 3 5 5 . 1 7 8 5 . 0 8 3 6 . 0 0 8 4 . 0 0 0 1 ' . 1 7 4 4 . 2 9 1 0 . 0 0 8 2 0 . 0 0 0 1 - 8 . 3 9 2 8 - 3 . 3 7 3 5 6 . 3 7 3 1 - 1 2 . 8 0 1 5 9 . 8 7 6 5 -8.2349 - 3 . 3 1 1 4 2 . 3 7 5 2 2 6 . 5 0 4 2 - 1 3 . 4 1 7 1 2 . 6 4 6 3 1 0 . 4 0 5 1 - 8 . 7 0 1 2 - 1 2 . 1 1 3 6 - 3 . 3 8 6 5 9 . 7 1 6 9 - 8 . 2 0 8 2 aSee Table XCII. 2 9 1 TABLE CIII SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT OPERATING COSTS (Less Than 40,000 Bushels C a p a c i t y ) 3 1 N 2 R2 3 S.E. 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep. Indep. 7 b 8 s b 9 t 27 0 . 2 1 1 7 0 . 1 1 7 5 0 . 4 2 5 0 TC T 0. 0 2 0 6 0 . 0 0 7 9 2 . 5 9 1 2 2 7 . 0 3 9 6 . 1 2 9 6 . 2 7 0 8 TC C . 0 8 6 2 . 0 8 4 9 1 . 0 1 5 1 2 7 .1287 ' . 1 2 3 5 . 4 6 4 7 TC T/C . 0 4 6 1 . 0 2 4 0 1 . 9 2 1 5 27 .3348 . 1 1 0 1 - . 1 3 1 9 TC T C . 0 2 5 4 . 1 5 9 1 . 0 0 7 8 .0755 3 . 2 6 3 8 . 2 . 1 0 7 6 27 ' . 3 4 2 8 . 1 0 9 5 . 3 9 2 2 TC T T/C . 0 8 5 3 - . 1 9 2 0 . 0 3 0 5 . 0 8 7 7 2 . 7 9 6 2 - 2 . 1 8 7 8 2 7 . 2 8 9 1 . 1 1 5 5 - . 2 7 9 0 TC T C , . 0 3 1 6 . 0 2 8 6 - . 0 0 2 2 . 0 1 2 4 . 0 7 8 6 . . 0 0 1 6 2.5553 0 . 3 6 4 4 - 1 . 3 3 9 9 2 7 . 8 2 9 5 2 . 7 4 3 6 3 1 . 3 6 4 0 TC rp2 - 4 . 9 2 9 9 . 2 2 4 8 . 6 0 5 7 . 0 4 0 3 - 8 . 1 3 9 4 5 . 5 7 4 7 2 7 . 9 3 8 1 1 . 6 9 0 1 1 . 4 2 8 9 TC T C 1/T - . 2 5 5 5 1 . 2 6 9 9 3 1 . 3 6 4 9 ' . 1 5 1 5 1 . 0 1 5 7 . 2 . 7 8 1 9 - 1 . 6 8 6 7 1 . 2 5 0 2 1 1 . 2 7 4 6 27 .9341 1 . 7 4 2 2 4 1 . 8 0 7 9 TC T T 2 T 3 - 1 1 . 2 4 7 6 1 . 2 0 4 2 - .0420 1 . 1 1 4 0 .1641 . . 0 0 6 9 - 1 0 . 0 9 7 0 7 . 3 3 9 1 - 6 . 0 4 3 1 2 7 . 8 3 7 8 2 . 7 3 4 2 2 4 . 4 5 0 5 TC T C T 2 - 4 . 9 4 3 5 2 . 0 3 8 6 . 2 3 0 1 . 6 0 3 7 1 . 8 8 7 7 .0405 - 8 . I 8 8 3 1 . 0 7 9 9 5 . 6 8 3 6 2 7 . 8 3 7 6 2 . 7 3 5 9 3 1 . 4 6 9 4 TC T T/C T2 - 4 . 2 8 5 3 - 2 . 4 3 1 4 . 2 3 7 1 . 8 5 4 8 2 . 2 8 1 5 . 0 4 1 8 - 5 . 0 1 3 4 - 1 . 0 6 5 7 5 . 6 6 7 5 27 . 9 3 9 5 1 . 7 0 7 9 3 6 . 1 0 8 3 TC T r p 2 T 3 - 1 1 . 1 7 9 8 1.6422 1 . 1 9 6 3 - .0414 1 . 0 9 3 1 1 . 1 8 1 0 . 1 6 1 0 \ O O 6 8 - 1 0 . 2 2 7 5 1 . 3 9 0 5 7 . 4 3 2 5 - 6 . 0 7 8 3 27 0 . 9 3 8 4 1 . 7 2 2 7 4 1 . 7 2 5 2 TC T T /C t - 1 0 . 6 7 9 5 - 1 . 7 7 8 5 1 . 1 9 8 2 - 0 . 0 4 1 3 1 . 1 9 3 8 1 . 4 4 0 7 0 . 1 6 2 3 0 . 0 0 6 9 - 8 . 9 4 6 2 - 1 . 2 3 4 5 7 . 3 8 2 1 - 6 . 0 0 1 0 aSee Table XCII. TABLE CIV SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT OPERATING COSTS (40,000 to 5 9 , 9 9 9 Bushels Capacity) a 1 N 2 R2 3 S.E. 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep. Indep. 7 b 8 Sb 9 t 2 3 0.2198 0.0084 0.4345 TC T 0.0144 0 . 0 0 5 9 2.4323 23 .1116 .0901 - 1 . 5 0 5 5 TC LC .4559 .2807 1.6241 23 . 0 0 5 0 .0953 .6008 TC T/C .0101 •.0309 0.3255 23 .2790 .0831 . 3 5 2 6 TC T C . 0 1 2 6 .0308 .0060 .0240 2.1018 1.2819 23 . 2 9 8 6 .0820 .5274 TC T T/C .0212 - .0508 . 0 0 7 3 . 0 3 3 9 2 . 3 9 3 2 -1.4933 2 3 .3547 .0307 .3901 TC T (T/C)3 .0179 ,0197 - " .0023 .0068 .0245 .0019 2.6260 .8046 -1.4926 23 .8161 1.0412 1 9 . 0 3 9 3 AC T T2 -1.9092 .0635 .3777 .0186 - 5 . 0 5 5 0 3.4210 2 3 .8785 .8635 2.2580 AC T C 1/T - .1245 .3225 37.9779 . 1 2 9 2 .2528 7.8873 - .9639 1.2761 4.8151 23 . 8 5 6 3 . 9 4 4 2 26.8276 AC T 2 T3 -4.8906 .4006 - .0116 1.3370 .1471 . 0 0 5 0 -3.6578 2.7231 -2.3068 23 .3242 1 . 0 4 4 5 17.5228 AC T C T2 -1.8629 .2871 .0603 .3821 .3069 .0189 -4.8751 .9354 3.1883 23 .3463 .9766 19.5621 AC T T/C T2 -1.7746 - .7812 ..0620 .3611 .4044 . 0 1 7 4 -4.9147 -1.9318 3.5580 23 .3677 .9310 25.3609 AC T rji 2 T3 -4.9629 .3407 .4112 -.0121 1 . 3 1 9 7 .2745 .1453 . 0 0 5 0 -3.7607 1.2411 2 . 8 3 0 1 -2.4314 2 3 0.3784 0.8925 26.5035 AC T T/C ?? -4.4798 - .6737 .3660 - 0 , 0 1 0 5 I . 2 8 4 2 .3729 .1404 O . O O 4 8 -3.4884 -1.8068 2.6073 -2.1797 See Table XCII. TABLE CV 2 9 3 SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT OPERATING COSTS ( 6 0 , 0 0 0 to 9 9 , 9 9 9 Bushels Capacity) a 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 N R 2 S.E. a Variable Dep. Indep. b Sb t 2 8 0 . 4 4 8 6 0 . 1 3 8 2 0 . 4 8 1 0 TC T 0 . 0 1 8 7 0 . 0 0 4 1 4 . 5 9 9 2 2 8 ' . 1 3 3 0 . 1 7 3 3 - 6 . 0 2 8 4 TC C 1 . 3 9 3 0 . 6 9 7 4 1 . 9 9 7 3 2 8 . 3 4 6 3 . 1 5 0 5 . 5 1 3 1 TC T/C . 1 2 4 4 . 0 3 3 5 3 . 7 1 1 4 2 8 . 4 7 1 6 . 1 3 8 0 . 2 5 3 6 TC T C . 0 1 7 3 . 0 3 4 7 . 0 0 4 3 . 0 3 3 2 4 . 0 2 7 9 1 . 0 4 2 7 2 8 . 4 7 1 6 . 1 3 0 8 . 2 5 1 0 TC T (T/C) 3 . 0 1 7 0 . 0 3 5 3 . 0 0 0 1 . 0 1 2 1 . 0 0 4 7 . 0 0 4 9 1 . 4 0 9 3 . 7 9 0 1 . 0 2 3 3 2 8 . 8 1 9 3 1 . 2 3 7 5 1 6 . 2 5 0 3 AC T T 2 - 1 . 1 2 7 2 . 0 2 4 6 . 1 4 9 6 . 0 0 4 5 - 7 . 5 3 4 5 5 . 4 7 4 9 2 8 . 8 9 7 9 . 9 4 9 3 . 6 3 3 0 AC T C 1/T - . 0 0 8 7 . 1 8 4 7 4 8 . 8 9 4 7 . 0 4 8 9 . 2 2 9 6 5 . 8 6 8 4 - . 1 7 8 2 . 8 0 4 5 8 . 3 3 1 8 2 8 . 8 6 7 2 1 . 0 8 2 8 2 0 . 4 8 5 2 AC T T^ - 2 . 1 6 5 5 . 0 9 5 6 - . 0 0 1 4 . 3 7 6 5 . 0 2 4 4 . 0 0 0 5 - 5 . 6 5 2 1 3 . 9 1 0 7 - 2 . 9 4 1 7 2 8 . 8 2 3 6 1 . 2 4 8 1 1 4 . 7 9 3 1 AC T C T 2 - 1 . 1 5 1 7 . 2 3 0 0 . 0 2 5 1 . 1 5 4 3 . 3 0 3 3 . 0 0 4 6 - 7 . 4 6 3 3 . 7 5 8 4 5 . 4 8 0 8 2 8 . 8 2 4 3 1 . 2 4 5 6 1 6 . 3 1 5 3 AC T T/C T 2 - 1 . 0 1 3 9 - . 8 4 8 7 . 0 2 4 5 . 2 0 4 2 1 . 0 3 3 2 . 0 0 4 5 - 4 . 9 6 6 0 - . 8 2 1 4 5 . 3 9 8 7 28 . 8 7 1 2 1 . 0 8 9 5 1 9 . 0 6 2 8 AC T C T 2 . T 3 - 2 . 1 8 6 4 . 2 2 2 7 . 0 9 5 8 - . 0 0 1 4 . 3 7 9 6 . 2 6 4 8 . 0 2 4 6 . 0 0 0 5 - 5 . 7 5 5 5 . 8 4 1 1 3 . 3 8 6 7 - 2 . 9 1 5 4 28 0 . 8 7 2 0 1 . 0 8 6 1 2 0 . 5 4 0 5 AC T T/C t - 2 . 0 5 2 4 - . 8 3 2 0 . 0 9 5 3 - 0 . 0 0 1 4 . 3 9 7 0 . 9 0 1 0 . 0 2 4 5 • . 0 0 0 5 - 5 . 1 6 9 8 - 0 . 9 2 3 5 3 . 8 8 6 0 - 2 . 9 2 6 7 aSee Table XII. TABLE CVI ^ SUMMARY TABULATIONS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOTAL AND AVERAGE COST FOR ELEVATORS VALUED AT OPERATING COSTS (Greater than 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 Bushels Capacity) a 1 N 2 R2 3 S.E. 4 a 5 6 Variable Dep. Indep. 7 b 8 s b 9 t , 23 0 . 8 2 6 5 0 . 1 0 3 7 0 . 5 0 4 9 TC T 0 . 0 2 1 4 0 . 0 0 2 1 1 0 . 0 0 3 4 23 . 1 6 4 0 .2276 - 5 . 9 0 8 8 TC C 1.3464 . 6 6 3 4 2 . 0 2 9 6 23 .6380 .1497 .4929 TC T/C . 2 8 6 0 . 0 4 7 0 6.O840 23 .8276 .1059 . 5 4 4 0 TC T C .0219 - . 0 0 3 8 1 . 0 0 2 6 . 0 1 0 9 8 . 4 7 7 4 - . 3 4 7 7 23 .8401 . 1046 .4221 TC T (T/C) 3 .0140 .0136 . 0 0 9 6 . 0 0 7 0 .0179 .0079 2 . 0 0 9 1 .7587 1 .2194 23 .7314 .8676 1 0 . 2 8 7 2 AC T 2 rp *~ - . 3 5 9 9 . 0 0 4 4 .0682 .0012 - 5 . 2 8 1 1 3 . 7 3 7 8 23 . 8 8 2 8 .5881 - . 2 6 2 4 AC T