UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

The intensity of manufacturers' site use in Greater Vancouver Rehnby, Kenneth 1970

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Notice for Google Chrome users:
If you are having trouble viewing or searching the PDF with Google Chrome, please download it here instead.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1970_A8 R44.pdf [ 3.61MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0104143.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0104143-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0104143-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0104143-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0104143-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0104143-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0104143-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0104143-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0104143.ris

Full Text

THE INTENSITY OP MANUFACTURERS' SITE USE IN GREATER VANCOUVER by Kenneth Rehnby B.A. U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1968 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the Department o f GEOGRAPHY We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF A p r i l BRITISH COLUMBIA 1970 I n p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u rposes may be g r a n t e d by t h e Head o f my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g or p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department of Geography The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8 , Canada A p r i l 1970 i i ABSTRACT T h i s s t u d y a t t e m p t s an i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f the use o f urban l a n d . I t i s s p e c i f i c a l l y c o n cerned w i t h t h e i n t e n s i t y of use o f m a n u f a c t u r i n g s i t e s i n G r e a t e r Vancouver. I n t e n s i t y o f use i s r e p r e s e n t e d by t h r e e measures: p e r cent o f s i t e unused, amount o f s i t e unused, and s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y o f t h e s i t e . S e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s a r e h y p o t h e s i z e d t o account f o r much v a r i a t i o n i n t h e s e i n t e n s i t y measures. R e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s a r e employed t o b u i l d p r e d i c t i v e models of use i n t e n s i t y and t o a s s e s s h y p o t h e s e s . Amount o f l a n d unused i s p r e d i c t e d s u c c e s s f u l l y , s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y l e s s s o , and p e r cent o f s i t e unused u n s u c c e s s f u l l y . Among t h e " e x p l a n a t o r y " v a r i a b l e s , e x p a n s i o n p l a n s , a l t h o u g h o f t e n c i t e d as suc h , a r e found t o be p a r t i c u l a r l y u n s u c c e s s f u l as a p r e d i c t o r o f " e x c e s s " s i t e h o l d i n g s . I n s t e a d , t h e s i z e o f s i t e s i s found t o be t h e most p o w e r f u l p r e d i c t o r of t h e i n t e n s i t y measures, but l a c k s a l o g i c a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n as a d e t e r m i n i n g or e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a b l e . Somewhat o r i g i n a l l y , c o r p o r a t e a s s e t s i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t o account f o r s i t e use i n t e n s i t y , and i s a c t u a l l y found t o add s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t h e m u l t i p l e e x p l a n a t i o n o f s e v e r a l i n t e n s i t y measures. i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I . INTRODUCTION 1 The T r a d i t i o n The Problem The Data I I . INTENSITY OF INDUSTRIAL SITE USE 5 D i s t i n g u i s h i n g I n t e n s i t y of S i t e Use from Conventional Land Use P o t e n t i a l Measures of S i t e Use I n t e n s i t y P r o p o r t i o n of S i t e Not Used Inputs to S i t e A c t i v i t y Outputs from S i t e A c t i v i t y Land Improvements S e l e c t i o n of O p e r a t i o n a l S i t e I n t e n s i t y Measures Land Use S t u d i e s : T h e i r Reference to I n t e n s i t y of S i t e Use Research w i t h S p e c i f i c Reference to I n t e n s i t y of I n d u s t r i a l S i t e Use The Need f o r Research IV. ELABORATION OF HYPOTHESES AND THEIR REPRESENTATION S i t e Use I n t e n s i t y Drops w i t h I n c r e a s i n g Distance from the Major Business Center I n t e n s i t y Increases w i t h the Cost of Land Greater Future On-Site Growth Prospects Result i n Greater Unused P o r t i o n s of Manufacturing S i t e s I n t e n s i t y of S i t e Use Increases w i t h I n c r e a s i n g Time Since I n i t i a l Settlement Larger Corporations Tend to Have Greater S i t e P o r t i o n s Unused Larger P l a n t s Tend to Have Greater Unused S i t e P o r t i o n s than Smaller P l a n t s I I I . TREATMENT IN THE LITERATURE 12 IN ANALYSIS 21 V. CHOICE OF TECHNIQUES 30 i v TABLE OF CONTENTS ( c o n t ' d ) C h a p t e r Page V I . DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICTIVE MODELS AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING 32 Overview o f R e l a t i o n s h i p s Between V a r i a b l e s Dependent V a r i a b l e s Per Cent o f S i t e Unused Amount o f S i t e Unused S t r u c t u r a l D e n s i t y Independent V a r i a b l e s Y e a r s on S i t e Land f o r E x p a n s i o n D i s t a n c e from C i t y C e n t e r V a l u e o f Land P e r Ac r e C o r p o r a t e A s s e t s S c a l e o f P l a n t S i z e o f S i t e Summary o f A n a l y s i s V I I . SCEPTICISM, CLAIMS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE STUDY 6 7 I n j e c t i n g S c e p t i c i s m toward C o n c l u s i o n s A C h a l l e n g e and an A d d i t i o n t o Theory' I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r F u t u r e R e s e a r c h SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 71 APPENDIX 73 V LIST OF TABLES T a b l e Page I . C o n t r i b u t i o n t o V a r i a n c e R e d u c t i o n f o r t h e T o t a l P o p u l a t i o n 37 I I . C o n t r i b u t i o n t o V a r i a n c e R e d u c t i o n f o r Non-Zero Per Cent of S i t e Unused 38 I I I . C o n t r i b u t i o n t o V a r i a n c e R e d u c t i o n f o r t h e P o p u l a t i o n S o r t e d f o r Non-Zero Per C e n t • o f S i t e Unused and H a v i n g E x p a n s i o n P l a n s 39 IV. C o n t r i b u t i o n t o V a r i a n c e R e d u c t i o n f o r t h e P o p u l a t i o n S o r t e d f o r E x p a n s i o n P l a n s kO V. C o r r e l a t i o n M a t r i x of Dependent and Independent V a r i a b l e s f o r t h e T o t a l P o p u l a t i o n 41 V I . C o r r e l a t i o n o f Dependent and Independent V a r i a b l e s w i t h S i t e S i z e 63 LIST OF FIGURES F i g u r e Page 1. P l o t o f V a l u e o f Land Per Acre on Per Cent o f S i t e Unused . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2. P l o t o f V a l u e o f Land P e r Acre on Amount o f Land Unused . 45 3. P l o t o f C o r p o r a t e A s s e t s on Amount o f Land Unused 46 4. P l o t o f S i t e S i z e on Amount o f Land Unused . . . . 47 5. P l o t o f V a l u e o f Land Per Acre on S t r u c t u r a l D e n s i t y 48 6. P l o t o f S i t e S i z e on S t r u c t u r a l D e n s i t y 49 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The T r a d i t i o n Man's use o f t h e e a r t h ' s s u r f a c e has l o n g been o f c e n t r a l i m p o r t a n c e t o g e o g r a p h e r s . R e s e a r c h e r s have l o n g c o n c e n t r a t e d on t h e q u a l i t y , d e n s i t y o r i n t e n s i t y o f t h i s use of space. More r e c e n t l y , many geographers have f o c u s e d a t t e n t i o n on i n t e n s i t i e s o f l a n d use i n urban a r e a s . T h i s s t u d y a t t e m p t s t o c o n t r i b u t e t o urban l a n d use r e s e a r c h . The Problem Most work i n urban l a n d use i s l i m i t e d t o t h e s t u d y of the purpose f o r wh i c h the l a n d i s used: such as r e s i d e n t i a l , i n d u s t r i a l o r c o m m e r c i a l . I n i n d u s t r i a l s t u d i e s g eographers have been most commonly concerned w i t h t h e f o r c e s i n f l u e n c i n g t h e l o c a t i o n o f p l a n t s i n urban a r e a s . I n t h i s s t u d y , m a n u f a c t u r i n g p l a n t l o c a t i o n s a r e t a k e n as g i v e n and t h e degree or q u a l i t y o f use i s i n v e s t i g a t e d . 2 S e v e r a l i d e a s are employed t o t r y t o account f o r t h e v a r i a t i o n i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . These i d e a s i n c l u d e : a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f a s i t e t o a major c e n t e r o f u r b a n a c t i v i t y ; t h e c o s t o f l a n d ; t h e h o l d i n g o f l a n d f o r f u t u r e growth o r e x p a n s i o n ; and t h e s i z e o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r f i r m h o l d i n g t h e l a n d . I n t h i s s t u d y t h e s e i d e a s are put i n t h e form o f h y p o t h e s e s t h a t can be r e a d i l y t e s t e d f o r t h e i r s i g n i f i -cance and t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t o f t h e g o v e r n i n g f a c t o r s a r e combined t o b u i l d p r e d i c t i v e models of s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . T h i s s t u d y i s l i m i t e d ' t o t h e use o f m a n u f a c t u r i n g s i t e s i n o n l y one a r e a — t h e u r b a n i z e d l a n d around t h e c i t y o f V a n couver, B r i t i s h C o lumbia. Only t h o s e s i t e s t h a t were w i t h i n 13 m i l e s and 55 minutes commuting t i m e from t h e c e n t e r o f t h e c o r e a r e a were i n c l u d e d i n t h i s u r b a n i z e d a r e a . At t h e t i m e f o r w h i c h d a t a were c o l l e c t e d (1958 and 1959), t h e a r e a c o n t a i n e d n e a r l y 700,000 p e o p l e . I t was s l i g h t l y below t h e C a n a d i a n p e r c a p i t a average f o r b o t h m a n u f a c t u r i n g o u t p u t and employment. S m a l l e r p l a n t s p r e d o m i n a t e d , w i t h over 40 p e r cent o f employment b e i n g a t p l a n t s o f under 100 employees. The i m p o r t a n c e o f p r i m a r y i n d u s t r i e s was somewhat g r e a t e r i n t h e a r e a t h a n i n Canada as a whole — p r e d o m i n a n t l y because o f t h e f o r e s t p r o d u c t s industry.''" S e v e r a l o t h e r s t r u c t u r a l f e a t u r e s are i m p o r t a n t , but m e n t i o n o f t h e s e i s r e s e r v e d u n t i l t h ey a r e s p e c i f i c a l l y p e r t i n e n t t o t h e a n a l y s i s . 3 The Data Much o f the d a t a employed I n t h i s s t u d y was c o l l e c t e d by t h e Lower M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g Board d u r i n g 1958 and 2 1959- B e f o r e i t s r e c e n t d i s s o l u t i o n the Board g e n e r o u s l y made a l l o f t h e s e d a t a a v a i l a b l e t o t h e w r i t e r . The p l a n n i n g b o a r d c o l l e c t e d i n f o r m a t i o n on 1132 i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s i n t h e r e g i o n h a v i n g t e n employees or more. Q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were completed by m a i l , and p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w s were c o n d u c t e d . I n m a n u f a c t u r i n g t h e p l a n n i n g board e n c o u n t e r e d o n l y e l e v e n r e f u s a l s t o t a l l i n g 635 employees. The d a t a were t a b u l a t e d on c a r d s . P o r t h i s p a r t i c u l a r s t u d y , t e n v a r i a b l e s t h o u g h t t o be i m p o r t a n t i n l a n d use i n t e n s i t y were c o l l e c t e d from t h e c a r d s o f t h e 586 p l a n t s c l a s s i f i e d as m a n u f a c t u r i n g ( S . I . C . No.'s 200-399) i n t h e G r e a t e r Vancouver a r e a . The v a r i a b l e s n o t e d were (1) average employment, (2) number o f y e a r s on s i t e , (3) e x p a n s i o n p l a n s (yes o r n o ) , (4) o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s (yes or n o ) , (5) a r e a c o v e r e d by s t r u c t u r e , (6) s i t e s i z e , (7) p e r cen t o f s i t e unused, and (8) a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f l a n d p e r a c r e . Three a d d i t i o n a l f i g u r e s were g a t h e r e d : (9) t r a v e l t i m e and (10) a c t u a l d i s t a n c e from the m a j o r b u s i n e s s c e n t e r , ^ and (11) t h e n c u r r e n t a s s e t s o f 5 f i r m , i n c l u d i n g a l l o f i t s h o l d i n g s . These f i g u r e s may be used t o r e p r e s e n t t h r e e s i t e i n t e n s i t y measures and a l s o s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s t h a t may be h y p o t h e s i z e d t o i n f l u e n c e s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . 4 REFERENCES CHAPTER I Generalizations and figures are taken from Manufacturing Industry i n the Lower Mainland of B. C , New Westminster, Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, I960. 2 These data and projections based upon, and summarized i n , Dynamics of I n d u s t r i a l Land Settlement, New Westminster, Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, 1 9 6 l . -3 This Greater Vancouver region i s a r b i t r a r i l y defined by the boundaries of the following m u n i c i p a l i t i e s : Vancouver, North Vancouver City, North Vancouver D i s t r i c t , West Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Fraser M i l l s , Richmond, Surrey, Delta, and the Unorganized areas of the University Endowment Lands, the loco area and D.L. 172, and f a l l i n g within 13 miles and 55 minutes commuting time from the center of the core area. 4 Calculations were based upon a map of t r a v e l times for 1959 i n Dynamics of I n d u s t r i a l Land Settlement, New Westminster, Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, 1961, p. 26. Although unspecified, distance and t r a v e l time appear to have been measured from the corner, of Granville and Georgia Streets, the major i n t e r s e c t i o n i n Vancouver. For s i m p l i c i t y , t h i s study refers to these measures henceforth as time or distance from the Central Business D i s t r i c t , or C.B.D. 5 Information on firms' assets i s taken from two sources: Canadian Trade Index, Toronto, Canadian Manufacturers Association, I958-.196O; and Frank J . St. C l a i r , ed., Moody's I n d u s t r i a l  Manual - American and Foreign, New York, Robert H. Messner, i 9 6 0 . CHAPTER I I INTENSITY OF INDUSTRIAL LAND USE D i s t i n g u i s h i n g I n t e n s i t y o f S i t e Use  from C o n v e n t i o n a l Land Use Land use has l o n g been i m p o r t a n t i n geography and i n o t h e r d i s c i p l i n e s . The d e f i n i t i o n o f l a n d use i s not i n t u i t i v e l y o b v i o u s and i s o f t e n r e s t r i c t e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e t o what i s where. The problem a t t h e c o r e o f t h i s s t u d y i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o l a n d u s e , but i t i s c e r t a i n l y not encompassed i n t h e what i s where d e f i n i t i o n . I n t e n s i t y o f l a n d use r e f e r s t o how much r a t h e r t h a n what, and t o o v e r what a r e a r a t h e r t h a n where. C o n v e n t i o n a l l a n d use s t u d i e s show the whole a r e a o f a l a r g e c i t y n e a t l y d i v i d e d i n t o uses such as r e s i d e n t i a l , c o m m e r c i a l , and i n d u s t r i a l . These c a t e g o r i e s may be f u r t h e r s u b d i v i d e d i n t o groups such as low, m i d d l e , and h i g h c l a s s r e s i d e n t i a l , o r l i g h t and heavy i n d u s t r i a l d i s t r i c t s . However, w h i l e b e i n g c o n c e r n e d w i t h the what o f l a n d u s e , t h e i n t e n s i t y measure a l s o a t t e m p t s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e degree or e x t e n t o f use over a p a r t i c u l a r a r e a . 6 P o t e n t i a l Measures o f S i t e Use I n t e n s i t y - P r o p o r t i o n o f S i t e Not Used A d i s c u s s i o n o f p o s s i b l e measures o f the i n t e n s i t y o f s i t e use w i l l a i d i n d e f i n i t i o n and p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r t h e c h o i c e o f measures t o employ i n t h i s r e s e a r c h . Perhaps th e s i m p l e s t p o s s i b l e i n d i c a t o r o f use i n t e n s i t y i s an assessment of t h e amount o r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e s i t e t h a t i s e s s e n t i a l l y not used ( o r , i n v e r s e l y , t h e p r o p o r t i o n t h a t i s used. T h i s s t u d y employs the n o t - u s e d measure because th e o r i g i n a l d a t a a r e i n t h a t f o r m . ) . I n an i n d u s t r i a l s t u d y t h i s measure would have more meaning t h a n i n a f i e l d such as r e c r e a t i o n where l a n d s e e n , but not t r a v e l l e d , may s t i l l be c o n s i d e r e d used. The i n d u s t r i a l s t u d y would n o r m a l l y c o n s i d e r as unused any p o r t i o n o f a s i t e t h a t p l a y s no r o l e i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l p r o c e s s . Such a measure would a s s e s s a r e a s c o v e r e d by b u i l d i n g s , p a r k i n g l o t s , g arden or b e a u t i f i e d a r e a s and s t o r a g e a r e a s as b e i n g used. T h i s measure does not d i s t i n g u i s h between p r o d u c t i v e l a n d uses and t h o s e uses w h i c h p l a y an i n d i r e c t r o l e i n t h e a c t u a l a c t i v i t y on t h e s i t e . I n a d d i t i o n , t h i s measure does not a s s e s s t h e q u a l i t y or v a l u e o f t h e d i f f e r e n t uses o f l a n d on t h e s i t e . The weakness of t h i s measure i s t h i s i n a b i l i t y t o d i s t i n g u i s h q u a l i t y o f use and so i t i s not r e a l l y a c c u r a t e as a measure of the i n t e n s i t y (how much) of l a n d use. P r o p o r t i o n  o f l a n d unused does, however, have two p o w e r f u l redeeming features as a measure. Data on t h i s measure may be gathered simply and accurately. It i s these features which contrast so greatly with the following possible measures. Inputs to Site A c t i v i t y The i n t e n s i t y with which a s i t e i s used would seem closely related to the inputs per unit area of land. The amount of such inputs could stand as a d e f i n i t i o n of the i n t e n s i t y of use. A measure suggested for some types of land use i s the value of labour, c a p i t a l and management annually invested per unit area."1" Permanent investments could be depreciated and included i n annual inputs. This index, i f accurately assessed, would r e f l e c t the. amount of economic a c t i v i t y a c t u ally taking place on a s i t e . Accurate measurement does present a problem. The value of labour i s the easiest measurement to make, but management receives" several non-monetary returns that are d i f f i c u l t to assess, even with the cooperation of the firm holding the s i t e . How are d i f f e r e n t methods of depreciation to be compared? Or further, what inputs are to be depreciated? How can we d i s t i n g u i s h between a used and an unused structure, or an underused and a f u l l parking l o t or even assess the value of drain t i l e that dates from an e a r l i e r period, when the land was used a g r i c u l t u r a l l y ? The measure of inputs to land, though perhaps conceptually i d e a l , e n t a i l s p r a c t i c a l data c o l l e c t i o n problems. The problem i s compounded when a less than t o t a l l y cooperative firm i s surveyed, 8 and r a p i d l y a p p r o a c h e s g a r g a n t u a n s i z e when a l a r g e number o f s i t e s i s c o n s i d e r e d . O u t p u t s f r o m S i t e A c t i v i t y C o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e o u t p u t s p e r u n i t a r e a i s a l m o s t as c o n c e p t u a l l y a p p e a l i n g as t he measurement o f i n p u t s . I n p u t s measure economic a c t i v i t y on a s i t e , w h i l e o u t p u t s measure t h e r e s u l t o f i t . Or f u r t h e r , an i n d e x may be c o n s t r u c t e d such as v a l u e added w h i c h can r e f l e c t t h e economic i m p o r t a n c e o f a c t i v i t y on a s i t e . Howeve r , v a l u e o f o u t p u t wou ld e n t a i l p r o b l e m s o f c o l l e c t i o n s i m i l a r t o t h o s e f o r v a l u e o f i n p u t . Land Improvements The weaknesses and d i f f i c u l t i e s o f t h e p r e c e d i n g measures cause t h e r e s e a r c h e r t o seek a l t e r n a t i v e methods o f a s s e s s m e n t . P e r h a p s one can c o n s i d e r t h e improvemen ts t o t h e l a n d . The s i m p l e s t and e a s i e s t measure o f improvemen ts t o c o l l e c t w o u l d be t h e r a t i o o f t o t a l f l o o r a r e a o f s t r u c t u r e s on a s i t e t o t h e t o t a l a r e a o f t h e i n d u s t r i a l s i t e and i s c a l l e d s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y . T o t a l f l o o r a r e a wou ld i d e a l l y be a measure o f t h e s q u a r e f o o t a g e t o t a l l e d f o r a l l s t o r e y s and a l l s t r u c t u r e s on a s i t e . But even i n i t s i d e a l f o rm t h i s measure canno t p e r f e c t l y r e f l e c t t h e c o n c e p t o f i n t e n s i t y o f s i t e u s e . A l l l a n d s no t unde r s t r u c t u r e s a r e u n a s s e s s e d . B u i l d i n g h e i g h t i s i g n o r e d u n l e s s s e v e r a l s t o r e y s a r e i n v o l v e d . 9 The measure does not r e f l e c t any q u a l i t y d i f f e r e n c e between a 10 foot high and a 15 foot high s t r u c t u r e . The measure makes no assessment of how appropriate the s t r u c t u r e i s to the present a c t i v i t y on a s i t e . Age and c o n d i t i o n of s t r u c t u r e remain unconsidered. Such a gauge of i n t e n s i t y would only take account of the improvements on the land and would neglect any separate improvements tcr the land such as drainage, hard s u r f a c i n g , or landscaping that could be encompassed i n the input measure. I t i s f e l t , though, that the r a t i o of f l o o r area to s i t e s i z e r e f l e c t s to some extent the input and output measures and t h e r e f o r e may stand i n place of these d i f f i c u l t - t o -c o l l e c t i n d i c e s . S e l e c t i o n of Ope r a t i o n a l S i t e I n t e n s i t y Measures Each of the p o s s i b l e measures of i n t e n s i t y d i s c ussed i s e i t h e r easy t o c o l l e c t but weak, or d i f f i c u l t to c o l l e c t but powerful. The weak measures ( p r o p o r t i o n of s i t e unused and r a t i o Of f l o o r area to s i t e area) only g e n e r a l l y r e f l e c t the i n t e n s i t y of use. V a r i a t i o n between p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r i e s ' s i t e use i n t e n s i t y cannot be r e f l e c t e d a c c u r a t e l y . For example, booming grounds must be c l a s s i f i e d as a used p o r t i o n of a s i t e but the p r o p o r t i o n of s i t e unused index does not d i s t i n g u i s h t h i s use of land from land covered by a paper-making machine. Many of the s t r u c t u r e s on an o i l r e f i n i n g or s a w m i l l i n g s i t e 10 cannot be measured by square f o o t a g e . N e i t h e r o f t h e weak measures d i s t i n g u i s h e s between a d i l a p i d a t e d f i s h cannery and a modern w i r e rope f a c t o r y . O b v i o u s l y , t h e s e weaker measures l e a v e t h e r e s e a r c h e r u n s a t i s f i e d . I n d i v i d u a l l y , t h e y do not l e a d t o an adequate assessment o f t h e i n t e n s i t y o f l a n d use on any i n d u s t r i a l s i t e . The more p o w e r f u l measures, t h o s e o f i n p u t , o u t p u t and v a l u e added embody t h e essence o f l a n d use i n t e n s i t y . Even w i t h t h e i r encumbrances t h e y have an a p p e a l t h a t outweighs t h e i r c o m p l e x i t y o f measurement. But t h e i r c o l l e c t i o n e n t a i l s a t a s k beyond t h e r e s o u r c e s o f t h i s r e s e a r c h e r . One can o n l y hope t h a t a c a r e f u l use o f t h e weaker measures w i l l t e n d t o r e f l e c t t h e s t r o n g e r measures o f s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . — Thus we have a t l e a s t two measures t h a t can be r e a d i l y i n v e s t i g a t e d ( p e r cent unused and s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y ) . I n f a c t , a t h i r d i n d e x can be su g g e s t e d a l s o : amount o f s i t e unused. T h i s i s i n c l u d e d t o r e f l e c t t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f a p a r t i c u l a r s i t e ' s use i n t e n s i t y . Amount o f s i t e unused i s a p r o d u c t o f p r o p o r t i o n unused and s i t e s i z e . D i s c u s s i o n o f t h e d a t a i n Ch a p t e r V makes f u r t h e r s p e c i f i c m e ntion o f t h e s t r e n g t h s and weaknesses o f each measure. Each o f t h e t h r e e c o n t a i n s i n a d e q u a c i e s , but t h e i n c l u s i o n o f each t a k e s c a r e o f s i t u a t i o n s p o o r l y t r e a t e d by o t h e r measures. By u s i n g t h i s group o f i n t e n s i t y i n d i c a t o r s , o b j e c t i o n s t o a p a r t i c u l a r i n d e x may be r e d u c e d . 11 REFERENCES CHAPTER I I M a r i o n Clawson and C h a r l e s S t e w a r d , Land Use I n f o r m a t i o n ( W ashington, Resources f o r t h e F u t u r e , d i s t r i b u t e d by Johns Hopkins P r e s s , B a l t i m o r e 1965). CHAPTER I I I TREATMENT IN THE LITERATURE Land Use S t u d i e s : T h e i r R e f e r e n c e t o I n t e n s i t y o f S i t e Use S t u d i e s s p e c i f i c a l l y c o n c erned w i t h l a n d use t e n d t o i g n o r e b o t h i n d u s t r i a l l a n d use and t h e i n t e n s i t y o f l a n d use. Perhaps t y p i c a l are the works o f Kenyon and Gandre. I n s p i t e o f i t s t i t l e , James Kenyon's " M a n u f a c t u r i n g and Sprawl"" 1" l a c k s any c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e s i z e o f s i t e o r i n t e n s i t y o f use. D onald G a n d r e 1 s work on Land Use Changes i n t h e Milwaukee P o r t  A r e a 1920-1963 c o n s i d e r e d c o m m e r c i a l , r e s i d e n t i a l , and i n d u s t r i a l l a n d use b u t . d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d s t u d i e d , no l a n d was unused and no d i f f e r e n c e s I n i n t e n s i t y of l a n d use were shown. Clawson i l l u s t r a t e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e of unused urban l a n d w i t h s t a t i s t i c s f o r 1950 i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s : seven m i l l i o n a c r e s out o f t h e t o t a l s e v e n t e e n m i l l i o n u r b a n i z e d a c r e s are unused. The i m p o r t a n c e of unused l a n d has been g e n e r a l l y n e g l e c t e d i n a n a l y s i s , as has t h e i n t e n s i t y o f l a n d use. T h i s b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n o f l a n d use i s not meant t o i m p l y t h a t low i n t e n s i t i e s , o r underused s i t e p o r t i o n s , have not been 13 mentioned i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e . Muncy no t e s the b e h a v i o r o f 4 two l a r g e c o r p o r a t i o n s . I n the case o f U. S. S t e e l ' s F a i r l e s s Works o n l y 25 per cent o f the huge s i t e was u s e d , w h i l e Westinghouse f o l l o w s a g e n e r a l r u l e o f thumb t h a t s i t e a r e a s h o u l d be a t l e a s t f i v e t i m e s t h e i n i t i a l a r e a under b u i l d i n g . Logan n o t e s a case o f a l a r g e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a -5 t i o n p u r c h a s i n g a s i t e f a r i n e x c e s s o f i t s needs. M c M i l l a n r e l a t e d s e v e r a l s i m i l a r examples o f s i t e p u r c h a s e s : ^ F i r m C ( M c M i l l a n ' s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n ) The p l a n t i n i t i a l l y b u i l t r e q u i r e d a minimum of 15 a c r e s and a maximum of 25 a c r e s . However, the acreage r e q u i r e m e n t e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e s i t e s t u d y group was 50 a c r e s . F i r m C f i n a l l y p u r c h a s e d over 300 a c r e s . F i r m D The m a n u f a c t u r i n g p l a n t t o be b u i l t would c o v e r 220,000 square f e e t [ l e s s t h a n 5 a c r e s ] . A 2 0-acre s i t e would have been ample f o r s p a c i o u s g r ounds, employee and guest p a r k i n g and any o u t s i d e s t o r a g e t h a t would be r e q u i r e d . A l t h o u g h t h e f a c i l i t y , even w i t h f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n , c o u l d be accommodated on 20 a c r e s , F i r m D d e s i r e d a 1 0 0-acre s i t e . . . . F i r m D l o c a t e d i n Community 2 where they p u r c h a s e d 236 a c r e s . F i r m E F i r m E b u i l t a 60,000 square f o o t p l a n t [ l e s s t h a n 1.5 a c r e s ] f o r w h i c h 10 a c r e s would have been adequate. However, t h e y a r e u s i n g 40 a c r e s w h i c h i s b e a u t i f u l l y l a n d s c a p e d . A l t h o u g h 40 a c r e s c o u l d t a k e c a r e o f any f o r e s e e a b l e e x p a n s i o n , t h e f i r m p u r c h a s e d 239 a c r e s . These f i r m s e x p l a i n e d t h e i r s i t e p u r c h a s e t o M c M i l l a n as b e i n g e i t h e r a r e a l e s t a t e s p e c u l a t i o n or a d e s i r e t o c o n t r o l 14 c o m p a t i b l e and d e s i r a b l e development of t h e l a n d . Thus i t can be s a i d t h a t i n t e n s i t y o f s i t e use has been n o t e d , but i t has not been s u f f i c i e n t l y i n v e s t i g a t e d . S i m p l e n o t i n g , as i n t h e case of Muncy and Logan, i s p a r t i c u l a r l y u n s a t i s f y i n g . A s k i n g f i r m s t o e x p l a i n t h e i r own b e h a v i o r , as M c M i l l a n does, cannot be s u f f i c i e n t e i t h e r t o g r asp th e d e pth o f t h e phenomenon or t o e x p l a i n i t . The adequacy of t h i s p r e v i o u s work can be c h a l l e n g e d on two grounds. The f i r s t i s t h a t s c a t t e r e d i n d i v i d u a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s b e a r l i t t l e r e f e r e n c e t o p a r t i c u l a r urban a r e a s and t h e f o r c e s a c t i n g t h e r e i n . The second i n v o l v e s the s u p e r f i c i a l i t y o f q u e s t i o n n a i r e s as answers t o t h i s complex pr o b l e m . A c c e p t i n g management's e x p l a n a t i o n o f i t s b e h a v i o r i s somewhat a k i n t o a c c e p t i n g a government l e a d e r ' s words on a p a r t i c u l a r p o l i c y . S c r u t i n y o f what the government does t h r o u g h i t s a c t i o n s and budget w i l l a l l o w g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g , and t h e c i t i z e n w i l l be l e s s e a s i l y m i s l e d . The w r i t e r h o l d s t h e view t h a t t h e s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d q u e s t i o n n a i r e tends t o promote c o n v e n t i o n a l l y h e l d i d e a s and makes the s e a r c h f o r new i n s i g h t s p a r t i c u l a r l y d i f f i c u l t . R e s e a r c h w i t h S p e c i f i c R e f e r e n c e  t o I n t e n s i t y o f I n d u s t r i a l S i t e Use Solzman has i n v e s t i g a t e d i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s o f w a t e r 15 7 oriented industries near Chicago. While the chief i n t e r e s t of t h i s study was not i n t e n s i t y of s i t e use, the research did provide several s i g n i f i c a n t conclusions about s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . Solzman found, through comparing many i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s , that those industries that use waterway transport predominantly ". . . use more land, cover i t with fewer structures of smaller g r e l a t i v e s i z e , and hir e fewer employees than do non-users". He found that waterway users employ from 2.5 to 13 times as much land per employee as do non-users. As Solzman suggests, the question of use or non-use of waterways cannot be considered to be the very powerful explanation of s i t e use i n t e n s i t y that i t f i r s t appears. Use of waterways tends to be associated with slow industry growth rates and greater age of structures, thus weakening the d i r e c t explanatory power of waterway use. Solzman's e f f o r t to investigate i n d u s t r i a l s i t e use in t e n s i t y can be r i v a l l e d by only one other study i n i t s treatment. 9 Dorothy Muncy surveyed 220 firms i n several U.S. urban areas through a questionnaire and investigated the re l a t i o n s h i p between distance and several variables thought to vary with distance from the central business d i s t r i c t of each plant's p a r t i c u l a r region. These variables were thought to be important for the operation of the firms. Site size was found to increase with distance from the C.B.D., which Muncy decided was caused by the decreasing land costs and greater a v a i l a b i l i t y of land with increasing distance from downtown. Muncy expected that plants with more numerous employees would, because of 16 correspondingly large land requirements, be forced to locate furthest away from the C.B.D. Strangely, t h i s hypothesis was not supported by research. Plants with employment between 10 and 1 0 0 tended to locate rather f ar from the C.B.D. But a closer look revealed that those that located furthest out had a strong tendency to be material-oriented i n t h e i r manufacturing processes and t h i s rather than size explained non-central l o c a t i o n . Also the employment group 1 0 0 - 5 0 0 0 tended to be located closer i n , which Muncy at t r i b u t e d to the a t t r a c t i o n of the labor market actually dominating over the cost and land a v a i l a b i l i t y v a r i a b l e s . Employment groups over 5 0 0 0 i l l u s t r a t e d a tendency to locate further out than the middle groups. Another variable investigated i n Muncy's study was s t r u c t u r a l density of a s i t e . This measure ( i . e . , per cent of s i t e covered by structure) i s actually one of the several p o t e n t i a l measures of s i t e i n t e n s i t y discussed e a r l i e r . Two thirds of the plants with a high (over 35 per cent) density figure were located near the C.B.D. (less than f i v e miles away). The study i l l u s t r a t e d a s i m i l a r tendency of employee s i t e density ( i . e . , employees per unit area) to vary with distance. This study by Dorothy Muncy thus e s s e n t i a l l y considered the e f f e c t s of distance from the C.B.D. on various aspects of s i t e use. Most of the variables have been discussed i n the l i t e r a t u r e , and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p to distance from the C.B.D. has often been suspected. These re l a t i o n s h i p s appear i n t u i t i v e l y obvious but the importance of Muncy's study i s i t s development i n an empirical way of previous i n t u i t i v e and unresearched notions. Muncy's study i s based upon a survey of firms from many areas of the United States; thus any regional bias i s removed. The sample of plants was, however, biased i n two d i r e c t i o n s . F i r s t l y , the survey was weighted toward the larger scale plants ( i t included 7 plants with under 100 employees and 21 plants with over 5000 employees). Secondly, the survey was l i m i t e d to plants constructed during a p a r t i c u l a r time period, World War I I , which, considering the period of the study, allows assessment of then recent plant development only. The Need for Research The preceding discussion has described the problem of i n t e n s i t y of i n d u s t r i a l s i t e use, and broadly considered i t s treatment i n the l i t e r a t u r e . It i s f e l t that the need for further research i s obvious. Nevertheless, the consideration of some scholars' thoughts on the subject can more c l e a r l y define t h i s need, and at the same time confirm the conclusions reached so f a r . The importance of unused land has been i l l u s t r a t e d c l e a r l y with reference to Clawson's s t a t i s t i c on unused urban land (over 40 per cent of U. S. urban land was unused i n 1 9 5 0 ) . T h e i n d u s t r i a l s i t e use problem obviously i s part of t h i s wider problem. 18 S e v e r a l a u t h o r s have n o t e d th e need f o r r e s e a r c h I n t h i s f i e l d . A l o n s o i n d i c a t e d t h e l a c k o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e s i z e o f a f i r m ' s s i t e i n the l i t e r a t u r e . "^ L i t h w i c k and Paquet have d i s c u s s e d t h e u n f o r t u n a t e r e s t r i c t i o n o f i n t e n s i t y o f 12 l a n d use s t u d i e s t o e i t h e r r e s i d e n t i a l d e n s i t i e s o r l a n d v a l u e s . W i l b u r Thompson w r i t e s o f t h e g r e a t d e t a i l i n w h i c h urban d e n s i t i e s , l a n d use and unused l a n d a r e t r e a t e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , 13 but d e p l o r e s t h e l a c k o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l examples. One may e a s i l y wonder how many a u t h o r s are making a s s u m p t i o n s about s i t e use and o t h e r v a r i a b l e s , not so much because o f i n c o m p l e t e s u r v e y s of r e l e v a n t w o r k s , but r a t h e r because o f t h e g r e a t gaps i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e . F o r example, Roger L e i g h has made a r e c e n t s t u d y w h i c h r e q u i r e d some measure 14 o f t h e s c a l e o f o p e r a t i o n s o f p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s . S e v e r a l d e s i r a b l e measures were not r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . The c h o i c e was made t o measure the s c a l e o f a c t i v i t y by t h e s i z e o f s i t e . But p r e l i m i n a r y work on L e i g h ' s d a t a shows a c o r r e l a t i o n o f o n l y 0.40 between s i z e o f s i t e and number o f w o r k e r s p e r s i t e i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s . Thus, e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between such v a r i a b l e s w i l l a i d r e s e a r c h e r s i n o t h e r f i e l d s o f s t u d y , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e s t u d y of l a n d use and i n t e n s i t y o f l a n d use. 19 REFERENCES CHAPTER III James Kenyon, "Manufacturing and Sprawl," i n Jean Gottman and Robert A. Harper, eds., Metropolis on the Move -Geographers Look at Urban Sprawl (New York: Wiley, 1967) , pp. 102-121. 2 Donald Gandre, Land Use Changes i n the Milwaukee Port  Area, 1920-1963 (University of Wisconsin, Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , 1967)• 3 Marion Clawson, Land Economics Research, ed. by Joseph Ackerman, Marion Clawson and Marshall Harris [Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, R.F.F. 1962), p. 11. 4 Dorothy A. Muncy, "Land for Industry - A Neglected Problem," i n Harold Mayer and C. F. Kohn, Readings i n Urban  Geography (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959) , pp. 464-5 M. I. Logan, "Locational Behavior of Manufacturing Firms i n Urban Areas," Annals of the Association of American Geographers LVI (December 1966), pp. 451-456. ^T. E. McMillan J r . , "Why Manufacturers Choose Plant Locations vs. Determinants of Plant Locations," Land Economics XL ( 1965) , pp. 239-246. 7 David M. Solzman, Waterway I n d u s t r i a l S i t e s : A Chicago  Case Study (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1966; Department of Geography Research Paper No. 107) . ^ I b i d . , p. 6 l . Q Dorothy A. Muncy, Space for Industry; An Analysis of Site  and Location Requirements for Modern Manufacture (Washington, D.C.: Urban Land I n s t i t u t e , 195^; Technical B u l l e t i n No. 2 3 ) . "^Clawson, op. c i t . , p. 11. ^W. Alonso, Location and Land Use - Toward a General  Theory of Land Rent (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1964), p. 45. 2 0 12 N. H. L l t h w i c k and G i l l e s Paquet, "Urban Land Use: An Economic-Geographic Concept," i n L i t h w i c k and Paquet, eds., Urban S t u d i e s : A Canadian P e r s p e c t i v e (Toronto: Methuen, 1 9 6 8 ) , pp. 9 2 - 1 1 4 . 13 Wilbur R. Thompson, A Preface to Urban Economics (Bal t i m o r e : Johns Hopkins Pr e s s , 1 9 6 5 ) , p• 2 3 5 • 14 Roger L e i g h , " A n a l y s i s of Factors A f f e c t i n g the L o c a t i o n of Industry W i t h i n C i t i e s , " Canadian Geographer X I I I ( S p r i n g , 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 2 8 - 3 3 . 21 CHAPTER IV ELABORATION OF HYPOTHESES AND THEIR REPRESENTATION IN ANALYSIS The b r i e f l i s t i n g o f h y p o t h e s e s i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n does not g i v e a b a s i s f o r t h e i r s e l e c t i o n — n e i t h e r s o u r c e nor j u s t i f i c a t i o n has y e t been p r e s e n t e d . The l i s t l e a v e s one w i t h o n l y an i n t u i t i v e i d e a o f t h e g e n e r a l n a t u r e o f most h y p o t h e s e s . T h i s c h a p t e r a t t e m p t s t o d e f i n e each h y p o t h e s i s c l e a r l y , d i s c u s s i t s s o u r c e and j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r i n c l u s i o n and i n d i c a t e t h e d a t a t h a t w i l l be employed i n i t s t e s t i n g . I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t such a d i s c u s s i o n w i l l s e t the s t a g e f o r a n a l y s i s . S i t e Use I n t e n s i t y Drops w i t h I n c r e a s i n g D i s t a n c e from the  M a j o r B u s i n e s s C e n t e r Von Thilnen's t h e o r e t i c a l work p r o v i d e s an i n d i r e c t b a s i s f o r t h i s idea."'" Other t h i n g s b e i n g e q u a l , Von Thttnen s u g g e s t s t h a t i n t e n s i t y o f use tended t o drop w i t h i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e from a c e n t r a l market because o f the i n f l u e n c e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s ; h i g h i n v e s t m e n t s are made i n s i t e s c l o s e t o t h e market c e n t e r , but t e n d t o be l o w e r i n more d i s t a n t s i t e s where the 22 e x t r a o u t p u t due t o h i g h e r i n v e s t m e n t i s o f f s e t by t h e c o s t o f t r a n s p o r t . More d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d argument and e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h have been p r e s e n t e d by Muncy. She has c l e a r l y s t a t e d a l o g i c a l s u p p o r t i n g argument f o r t h e h y p o t h e s i s : P l a n t s w h i c h l o c a t e beyond t h e zone o f f r e q u e n t t r a n s p o r t s e r v i c e need l a r g e r employee p a r k i n g a r e a s . . . . A l s o , as l a n d c o s t s d e c r e a s e w i t h d i s t a n c e , a d d i t i o n a l a c r e s f o r l a n d s c a p i n g and f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n a re more c h e a p l y a c q u i r e d . 2 Muncy's r e s e a r c h i n d i c a t e d t h a t measures o f m a n u f a c t u r e r s ' s i t e use i n t e n s i t y d i d drop w i t h i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e from a major C.B.D. Thus s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y ( r a t i o o f a r e a c o v e r e d by s t r u c t u r e s t o a r e a o f s i t e ) d e c r e a s e d w i t h d i s t a n c e , as d i d the s i t e employee d e n s i t y measure ( r a t i o o f number o f employees t o a r e a o f s i t e ) . I n s h o r t , i n t u i t i o n i d e n t i f i e s t h i s f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s , Von Thtinen's t h e o r e t i c a l work i n d i c a t e s f u r t h e r s u p p o r t , and Muncy's e m p i r i c a l work i s u n d e n i a b l e j u s t i f i c a t i o n . I n p r a c t i c e two r e a s o n a b l e measures o f d i s t a n c e a r e a v a i l a b l e . A c t u a l d i s t a n c e t o t h e d e l i m i t e d major cor e a r e a can be c o n s i d e r e d and i s t h e measure used by Muncy. D i s t a n c e i s measured a t one m i l e i n t e r v a l s from the C.B.D. r a n g i n g from one m i l e t o g r e a t e r t h a n 12 m i l e s . A n o t h e r d i s t a n c e c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s t r a v e l t i m e . T r a v e l t i m e , measured by s t r e e t and highway t r a f f i c t o t h e C.B.D. i n t h e y e a r o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e Vancouver a r e a at one r e l e v a n t time p e r i o d i n f i v e minute c l a s s e s f o r a l l o f the stu d y a r e a . T h i s time d i s t a n c e gauge a l l o w s a c o n c e p t u a l adjustment o f r e a l w o r l d d i s t a n c e , t h a t t e n d s t o t a k e account o f t r a v e l c o n d i t i o n s . A l t h o u g h i t i s p e r i p h e r a l t o t h i s s t u d y , i t w i l l be i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e s e two d i s t a n c e measures. I n t e n s i t y I n c r e a s e s w i t h the Cost of Land T h i s h y p o t h e s i s has a f i r m b a s i s i n m i c r o - e c o n o m i c s . M a r s h a l l ' s " . . . i f l a n d i s cheap he [ t h e e n t r e p r e n e u r ] w i l l t a k e much o f i t ; i f i t i s dear he w i l l t a k e l e s s and b u i l d h i g h , " i s a g e n e r a l i z e d comment t h a t i s r e l a t e d t o the h y p o t h e s i s . A l o n s o a r g u e s , f o r example, t h a t a b u s i n e s s , f a c e d w i t h a d e s i r e d $10,000 l a n d i n v e s t m e n t , may be a b l e t o p u r c h a s e one a c r e i n one l o c a t i o n and t e n a c r e s i n a n o t h e r . He f e e l s t h e r e i s a t r a d e - o f f here between l a n d c o s t s and a d e s i r e f o r space. The businessman w i l l seek some optimum, r e f l e c t i n g t h e t r a d e - o f f . A c c u r a t e l a n d c o s t measures a r e d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n f o r the s t u d y a r e a . I n f o r m a t i o n on s p e c i f i c s i t e s a t p a r t i c u l a r t i m e s can be g a t h e r e d but o n l y v e r y g e n e r a l i z e d d a t a a r e - . a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e whole st u d y a r e a . B e s i d e s , " l a n d c o s t " can mean s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s . I s i t i n i t i a l c o s t , c u r r e n t market v a l u e , r e p l a c e m e n t c o s t , or f i n a n c i a l r e t u r n t o t h e la n d ? Perhaps l a n d c o s t s s h o u l d r e f l e c t t he c o s t s o f h o l d i n g the s i t e , w h i c h would t a k e account o f the t a x e s p a i d on the l a n d . T h i s c o n c e p t u a l p r o b l e m and the. problem o f d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y f o r c e t h e use o f a s s e s s e d v a l u e s o f l a n d as t h e i n d i c a t o r o f l a n d c o s t s . A d m i t t e d l y m u n i c i p a l assessments c o n t a i n weaknesses, and t h e s e weaknesses w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n the a n a l y s i s , but t h e y s t a n d p e r f o r c e as t h e b e s t g e n e r a l i n d i c a t o r o f l a n d c o s t a v a i l a b l e . G r e a t e r F u t u r e O n - S i t e Growth P r o s p e c t s R e s u l t i n G r e a t e r  Unused P o r t i o n s o f M a n u f a c t u r i n g S i t e s S e v e r a l a u t h o r s have n o t e d l a r g e unused p o r t i o n s o f i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s . I t i s commonly argued t h a t such p o r t i o n s a r e r e s e r v e d f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n o f p l a n t f a c i l i t i e s . I n d u s t r i a l i s t s p r e s e n t t h i s o p i n i o n a l s o . However, e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h i s d e c i d e d l y l a c k i n g on t h i s e x p l a n a t i o n . • I f r e s e r v e d l a n d i s a r e s u l t o f e x p e c t a t i o n s o f f u t u r e g r o w t h , we can e x p e c t p l a n t s t h a t have o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s t o have h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n s o f t h e i r s i t e s unused. Or r e v e r s i n g the argument, we can e x p e c t p l a n t s w i t h l a r g e unused s i t e p o r t i o n s t o have p l a n s f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n . M a n u f a c t u r e r s i n t h e s t u d y a r e a were a s k e d i n t h e o r i g i n a l L.M.R.P.B. s u r v e y about t h e i r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s on a yes o r no b a s i s . I f t h e r e were e x p a n s i o n p l a n s , i t was d e t e r m i n e d whether o r not t h e s e would t a k e p l a c e on t h e e x i s t i n g o r on d i f f e r e n t s i t e s . T h i s i n d i c a t o r o f g r o w t h p o s s i b i l i t i e s p r o v i d e s us w i t h an e x c e l l e n t b a s i s f o r h y p o t h e s i s t e s t i n g . 25 I n t e n s i t y o f S i t e Use I n c r e a s e s w i t h I n c r e a s i n g Time S i n c e  I n i t i a l S e t t l e m e n t Argument i n s u p p o r t of t h e p r e v i o u s h y p o t h e s i s a l s o s u p p o r t s t h i s h y p o t h e s i s . At t h e t i m e of i n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t , a p o r t i o n o f t h e s i t e w i l l be r e s e r v e d f o r f u t u r e growth. As time p r o g r e s s e s and t h e e x p e c t e d e x p a n s i o n o c c u r s , l e s s and l e s s o f t h e s i t e w i l l be r e s e r v e d . A l t h o u g h i n d i v i d u a l f i r m s ' s i t e s can be e x p e c t e d t o v a r y a g r e a t d e a l i n t h e i r s i t e use i n t e n s i t y , one can e x p e c t a g e n e r a l tendency f o r t h e i n t e n s i t y of s i t e use t o i n c r e a s e w i t h the passage o f t i m e s i n c e i n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t . T h i s argument depends, of c o u r s e , on t h e i d e a t h a t i n i t i a l p u r c h a s e s beyond p r e s e n t needs a r e t o be u t i l i z e d f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n . Two a d d i t i o n a l arguments may be e n t e r e d i n s u p p o r t o f t h i s h y p o t h e s i s . F i r s t , t h a t r e c e n t l y d e v e l o p i n g f i r m s t e n d t o l o c a t e a t t h e edge of t h e b u i l t up a r e a where l a n d i s c h e a p e r , t h u s b u y i n g more l a n d i r r e s p e c t i v e o f e x p a n s i o n p l a n s . Second, t h a t most f i r m s do expand on t h e i r i n i t i a l s i t e s because of i n e r t i a . Thus, t e s t i n g o f t h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s e s s e n t i a l l y a f u r t h e r s c r u t i n y o f t h e concept t h a t e x c e s s l a n d i s i n i t i a l l y p u r c h a s e d t o f a c i l i t a t e f u t u r e growth. I f we a c c e p t t h e i d e a t h a t e x c e s s l a n d i s i n i t i a l l y h e l d f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n i t i s t h e n p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e i f t h a t e x p e c t e d e x p a n s i o n tends t o t a k e p l a c e t h r o u g h t i m e . I f no such g e n e r a l tendency i n f a c t o c c u r s , two c o n d i t i o n s may e x i s t . One, t h a t the e x c e s s l a n d was not h e l d f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n o r two, t h a t t h e e x p e c t e d e x p a n s i o n d i d not t a k e p l a c e . I f a n u l l h y p o t h e s i s i s d e t e r m i n e d , i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h i s f o u r t h h y p o t h e s i s , the power of f u t u r e growth i n e x p l a i n i n g excess s i t e h o l d i n g s w i l l r e c e i v e a s t r o n g , though i n c o n c l u s i v e , c h a l l e n g e . The d a t e of i n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t was c o l l e c t e d by t h e L.M.R.P.B. and i s i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h i s s t u d y as t ime s i n c e i n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t (Year of i n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t s u b t r a c t e d from t h e y e a r I960) . L a r g e r C o r p o r a t i o n s Tend t o Have G r e a t e r S i t e P o r t i o n s Unused T h i s h y p o t h e s i s l a c k s s u p p o r t i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e . No a u t h o r y e t e n c o u n t e r e d has s u g g e s t e d a d i f f e r e n c e i n any form o f l a n d use i n t e n s i t y between p l a n t s b e l o n g i n g t o f i r m s o f d i f f e r e n t s i z e s . The l i t t l e s u p p o r t t h a t can be c l a i m e d comes from t h r e e s o u r c e s . A p e r s o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n l e d t o t h e i n i t i a l i n t e r e s t i n t h i s s t u d y . A l a r g e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n p u r c h a s e d a l a r g e b l o c k o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d i n t h e s t u d y a r e a , r e s e r v e d a s m a l l p e r c e n t a g e o f i t f o r i t s proposed p l a n t , and p r o m p t l y s i g n e d a twenty y e a r l e a s e f o r t h e r e m a i n d e r . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t the income from the l e a s e d i d not even approach t h e t a x e s on t h e l a n d , l e t a l o n e t h e i n t e r e s t on t h e c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t . C o n t i n u i n g , but haphazard o b s e r v a t i o n has u n c o v e r e d s i m i l a r examples of l a r g e f i r m b e h a v i o u r , but none of s m a l l e n t e r p r i s e s . A second s o u r c e can perhaps be c l a i m e d i n the m i c r o -economic t h e o r i e s o f J . K. G a l b r a i t h . H i s r e c e n t book. The 5 New I n d u s t r i a l S t a t e s u g g e s t s a d i f f e r e n t s e t o f g o a l s , and c o n s e q u e n t l y economic b e h a v i o u r , t h a n has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been a s s i g n e d t o t h e e n t r e p r e n e u r . Whereas the e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l f i r m sought a m a x i m i z a t i o n o f p r o f i t as i t s p r i m a r y g o a l , the v e r y l a r g e c o r p o r a t i o n seeks adequate p r o f i t s ( which i t has l i t t l e d i f f i c u l t y i n a c h i e v i n g ) and a maximum o f s e c u r i t y f o r members o f t h e c o r p o r a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n t h r o u g h an i n c r e a s e i n t h e s i z e o f i t s h o l d i n g s and o p e r a t i o n . The w r i t e r s u g g e s t s t h a t t h i s growth i n h o l d i n g and s e c u r i t y may f o c u s i t s e l f on t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f e x c e s s l a n d h o l d i n g s . I t i s n o t , however, t h e purpose of t h i s s t u d y t o examine d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s e s o f the l a r g e f i r m . T h i s h y p o t h e s i s a d d r e s s e s i t s e l f o n l y t o t h e outward consequences of f i r m s i z e f o r l a n d use. A t h i r d s o u r c e o f s u p p o r t i s t h e examples o f r a t h e r c u r i o u s l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n s n o t e d i n t h e - l i t e r a t u r e . Logan mentioned a l a r g e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n ' s seeming o v e r -p u r c h a s e o f l a n d . ^ Muncy n o t e d t h e cases o f Westinghouse and 7 U. S. S t e e l , b o t h huge c o r p o r a t i o n s by any s t a n d a r d . Such l i t e r a t u r e as has been s u r v e y e d r e v e a l s no such n o t a t i o n o f s m a l l f i r m b e h a v i o u r . C o n s e q u e n t l y , the h y p o t h e s i s w i l l , f o r t h e f i r s t t i m e , be s u b j e c t t o t e s t . A f o u r t h s o u r c e o f s u p p o r t i s i n c l u d e d w i t h o u t comment i n the Appendix. 28 S e l e c t i o n o f a s t a t i s t i c t o measure s i z e o f f i r m must be somewhat a r b i t r a r y because o f a l a c k o f agreement i n the l i t e r a t u r e . Most s c a l e s o f f i r m s i z e choose s e v e r a l c r i t e r i a : s a l e s , employment, a s s e t s and p r o f i t . A s s e t s i s chosen i n t h i s s t u d y because i t i s the most r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e o f t h e p o s s i b l e measures and a l s o because I t f l u c t u a t e s l e a s t from y e a r t o y e a r . L a r g e r P l a n t s Tend t o Have G r e a t e r Unused S i t e P o r t i o n s t h a n  S m a l l e r P l a n t s T h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s i n c l u d e d t o ensure t h a t t h e t e s t i n g o f the p r e c e d i n g h y p o t h e s i s does not i n d i r e c t l y t e s t a n o t h e r . I f c o r p o r a t e a s s e t s i s found t o be a v a r i a b l e o f c o n s i d e r a b l e e x p l a n a t o r y power, i t c o u l d r e a d i l y be argued t h a t s i z e o f f i r m i s h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h s c a l e o f p l a n t and much o f a s s e t s 1 e x p l a n a t o r y power i s o n l y a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h i s c o r r e l a t i o n . By t e s t i n g b o t h h y p o t h e s e s one a t t e m p t s t o t h w a r t c r i t i c i s m o f a s s e t s ' e x p l a n a t o r y power. The c o r p o r a t e a s s e t s h y p o t h e s i s t h e n may be r e a s s e s s e d i n l i g h t o f t h i s s i x t h h y p o t h e s i s . S i z e o f f i r m can be checked t o see i f i t c o n t r i b u t e s more t o any e v e n t u a l e x p l a n a t i o n t h a n s i z e o f p l a n t o r i f i t adds s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o a m u l t i p l e e x p l a n a t i o n t h a t i n c l u d e s p l a n t s i z e a l s o . 29 REFERENCES CHAPTER IV J . H. Von Thllnen, Per I s o l i e r t e Staat, 3 r d . ed., Be r l i n . 1 8 2 6 , as summarized i n J . D. Henshall, "Models of A g r i c u l t u r a l A c t i v i t y " i n R. J. Chorley and Peter Haggett, eds.. Models i n  Geography (London: Methuen, 1 9 6 7 ) , pp. 4 2 5 - 6 0 . 2 Dorothy A. Muncy, Space for Industry: An Analysis of  Site and Location Requirements for Modern Manufacture (Washington, D.C: Urban Land I n s t i t u t e , Technical B u l l e t i n No. 2 3 , 1 9 5 4 ) , p. 1 8 . A l f r e d Marshall, P r i n c i p l e s of Economics, 7 t h . ed. (London: MacMillan & Co., 1 9 1 6 ) , p. 448. ~' W. Alonso, "A Theory of the Urban Land Market," Papers  and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, IV ( 1 9 6 0 ) , pp. 149 - 1 5 7 . 5 J . K. Galbraith, The New I n d u s t r i a l State (Boston: Houghton M i f f l i n , 1 9 6 7 ) . M^. I. Logan, "Locational Behavior of Manufacturing Firms i n Urban Areas," Annals of the Association of American  Geographers, LVI (September 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 4 5 1 - 5 6 . 7 Dorothy A. Muncy, "Land for Industry.," i n Harold Mayer and C. F. Kohn, eds., Readings i n Urban Geography (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1 9 5 9 ) , pp. 464 -77 . CHAPTER V CHOICE OP TECHNIQUES T h i s s t u d y has been d e v e l o p e d as an i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f the power o f s e v e r a l s p e c i f i c measures t o account f o r t h e i n t e n s i t y o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d use i n an urban a r e a . These v a r i a b l e s , p l u s t h o s e r e p r e s e n t i n g i n t e n s i t y o f u s e , a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r 5 8 6 c a s e s . A good t e c h n i q u e i s one t h a t b e s t h a n d l e s t h e t a s k s a s s i g n e d t o i t , w h i l e r e t a i n i n g s i m p l i c i t y i n a n a l y s i s . C o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s a l l o w s e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e c l o s e n e s s and d i r e c t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between v a r i a b l e s . R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a l l o w s m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n o f the r a t e of change i n a dependent ( e x p l a i n e d ) v a r i a b l e w h i l e an independent ( e x p l a n a t o r y ) v a r i a b l e i s i n c r e a s e d o r d e c r e a s e d a u n i t measure. G r a p h i c p r e s e n t a t i o n o f r e g r e s s i o n a l l o w s c l e a r v i s u a l r e p r e s e n t a -t i o n f o r t h e s e t w o - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . I n a s e n s e , we can p r e d i c t w i t h i n a c e r t a i n p r o b a b i l i t y t h e dependent v a l u e from t h e i n d e p e n d e n t . R e g r e s s i o n appears t o d e a l w i t h a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p . We t h i n k o f p r e d i c t i o n as c a u s a l , and i f we can f o r e c a s t one v a r i a b l e from a n o t h e r i t does appear t o be a c a u s e / e f f e c t 31 r e l a t i o n s h i p . But t h i s i s o n l y i n a s t a t i s t i c a l s e n s e . I n r e a l i t y , t h i s c a u s e / e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p i s not p r o v e d — a good f i t i n r e g r e s s i o n o n l y shows t h a t a h y p o t h e s i z e d c a u s e / e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p i s t e n a b l e . M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a l l o w s a n a l y s i s o f s e v e r a l i ndependent v a r i a b l e s a t once. The p r e d i c t i v e powers of each v a r i a b l e may be a n a l y s e d i n complex s i t u a t i o n s . S t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n c o n s i d e r s each of t h e independent v a r i a b l e s i n t u r n , and e x p r e s s e s i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t h e dependent v a r i a b l e . Each independent v a r i a b l e i s r e a d i l y a s s e s s e d i n terms o f i t s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e t o t a l r e d u c t i o n o f v a r i a n c e of t h e dependent v a r i a b l e . V a r i a b l e s w h i c h do not add a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n can be d i s c a r d e d . Treatment f o r 5 8 6 cases v i r t u a l l y e l i m i n a t e s manual c o m p u t a t i o n of s t a t i s t i c a l measures as a p r a c t i c a l p o s s i b i l i t y . The UBC TRIP ( T r i a n g u l a r R e g r e s s i o n Package) a l l o w s manageable t r e a t m e n t of r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s , even f o r t h e u n s k i l l e d computer u s e r . C o r r e l a t i o n , p l u s s i m p l e and s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n , on UBC*s 3 6 O / 6 5 e n a b l e s s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l s u i t e d t o t h e h y p o t h e s e s t o be t e s t e d . I t i s , however, almost i m p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e how w e l l t h e t e c h n i q u e i s s u i t e d t o t h e s t u d y and how W e l l th e s t u d y i s s u i t e d t o t h e t e c h n i q u e . The c h o i c e o f t e c h n i q u e and the n a t u r e of t h e s t u d y , e s p e c i a l l y t h e form i n w h i c h q u e s t i o n s are a s k e d , t e n d t o grow t o g e t h e r . CHAPTER VI DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICTIVE MODELS AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING The c o m p l e x i t i e s o f a n a l y s i s a r e more apparent t h a n r e a l f o r t h e c o m p l e x i t y i s c r e a t e d more i n p r e s e n t a t i o n t h a n i n a c t u a l a n a l y s i s . T h i s s t u d y a t t e m p t s i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h r e e dependent v a r i a b l e s and seven in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . I t w i l l be r e c a l l e d t h a t dependent v a r i a b l e s a r e : p e r cent o f s i t e unusedj amount o f s i t e unused, and s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y . Independent v a r i a b l e s a r e : Y e a r s on s i t e , l a n d f o r e x p a n s i o n , d i s t a n c e from c i t y c e n t e r , v a l u e o f l a n d p e r a c r e , c o r p o r a t e a s s e t s , s c a l e o f p l a n t , and s i t e s i z e . F o r r e a s o n s made c l e a r i n t h e f o l l o w i n g , f o u r d i f f e r e n t p o p u l a t i o n s must be d e f i n e d and t h e t e n v a r i a b l e s ' r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n v e s t i g a t e d i n terms of t h e s e d i f f e r e n t p o p u l a t i o n s . S e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s r e q u i r e d l o g a r i t h m i c t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i n o r d e r t o n o r m a l i z e o r t o m a i n t a i n c o n s t a n t v a r i a n c e i n r e g r e s s i o n . C l a r i t y o f p r e s e n t a t i o n n e c e s s i t a t e s an o r g a n i z a -t i o n o f a n a l y s i s here t h a t d i f f e r s from t h e way i t a c t u a l l y p r o g r e s s e d . T h i s s e c t i o n p r e s e n t s t h e a n a l y s i s : f i r s t , an 33 o v e r v i e w o f the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between v a r i a b l e s i s g i v e n ; second, a more d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f the dependent s i t e i n t e n s i t y measures and t h e p r e d i c t i v e models d e v e l o p e d t o e x p l a i n them f o l l o w s ; and t h i r d , a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f each h y p o t h e s i s and i t s t e s t i n g c o n c l u d e s . These t h r e e major s e c t i o n s a r e t i e d t o g e t h e r i n p r e s e n t a t i o n t o a s e r i e s o f f o u r t a b l e s t h a t summarize the a n a l y s i s ( T a b l e s I - I V , pp. 3 7-40). Overview of R e l a t i o n s h i p s  Between V a r i a b l e s A c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x ( T a b l e V, p. 4 i ) i l l u s t r a t e s s i m p l e t w o - v a r i a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s between the dependent v a r i a b l e s t h e m s e l v e s v a r y between r = 0.50 and r = 0 . 8 2 . I n a sense t h e s e t h r e e measures ar e m e a s u r i n g c l o s e l y r e l a t e d a s p e c t s o f i n t e n s i t y o f use but a c omparison of t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f each t o t h e independent v a r i a b l e s i n d i c a t e s i n c o n s i s t e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s between a p a r t i c u l a r e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e and the t h r e e e x p l a i n e d v a r i a b l e s . F o r example, v a l u e of l a n d p e r a c r e has an r v a l u e of - 0 . 4 7 w i t h p e r cent o f s i t e unused and a v a l u e of 0.72 w i t h s t r u c t u r a l  d e n s i t y . From s e v e r a l such comparisons one may c o n c l u d e t h a t , a l t h o u g h each dependent v a r i a b l e i s r e l a t e d t o t h e o t h e r s , i t i s m e a s u r i n g a somewhat d i f f e r e n t phenomenon. One seeks no f u r t h e r j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r the s e p a r a t e t r e a t m e n t o f t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s i n the f o l l o w i n g a n a l y s i s . 34 Dependent V a r i a b l e s i Per Cent o f S i t e Unused One of t h e a s s u m p t i o n s i n r e g r e s s i o n i s t h a t the dependent v a r i a b l e be n o r m a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d . The s c o r e s on per cent o f s i t e unused d e v i a t e from th e b e l l - s h a p e d c u r v e t o such an e x t e n t t h a t n o r m a l i z a t i o n t h r o u g h t r a n s f o r m i n g t h e v a r i a b l e i s i m p o s s i b l e . Of t h e 586 o b s e r v a t i o n s , 434 employed 100 p e r cent o f t h e i r s i t e s , l e a v i n g t h e r e m a i n i n g 152 d i s t r i b u t e d q u i t e n o r m a l l y between 7 p e r cent and 97 p e r cent o f s i t e s unused. I t i s l o g i c a l , and p r o p e r use o f s t a t i s t i c s demands, t h a t a new p o p u l a t i o n be d e f i n e d . T h i s new p o p u l a t i o n c o n s i s t s o f a l l o b s e r v a t i o n s u s i n g l e s s t h a t 100 p e r cent o f t h e i r s i t e s . The mean v a l u e o f t h i s new group i s 42 . 6 2 p e r cent and the s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n i s 22.16 p e r c e n t . The c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s p r e v i o u s l y h y p o t h e s i z e d were i n v e s t i g a t e d s e p a r a t e l y , and as a g r o u p , i n an attempt t o e x p l a i n t h e s t a t i s t i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f . t h i s phenomenon. No s u c c e s s f u l r e g r e s s i o n models were d e v e l o p e d . I n s i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n , o n l y s i x v a r i a b l e s were found t o o f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t e x p l a n a t i o n 2 and none r e a c h e d an r o f o ver 10 p e r c e n t . A s t e p - w i s e 2 r e g r e s s i o n model d e v e l o p e d an r o f 25 p e r cent w i t h v a l u e per a c r e , a s s e t s ( c o r p o r a t e s i z e ) and y e a r s on s i t e b e i n g t h e o n l y s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t o r s . F a i l u r e t o d e v e l o p a model of g r e a t e x p l a n a t o r y power i s 35 c l e a r l y u n d e r s t o o d f o l l o w i n g a n a l y s i s o f r e s i d u a l s from r e g r e s s i o n . Per cent o f s i t e use f i g u r e s show a g r e a t d e a l o f v a r i a n c e f o r each o f the independent v a r i a b l e s t e s t e d . One can e x p l a i n t h i s v a r i a n c e t h r o u g h c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e n a t u r e o f t h e p e r c e n t a g e f i g u r e . Ten p e r cent o f a 0.2 a c r e s i t e i s q u i t e d i f f e r e n t from 10 p e r cen t o f a 20 a c r e s i t e . The a c t u a l amount o f l a n d concerned i s 100 t i m e s as g r e a t . The v a r i a n c e o f t h e dependent v a r i a b l e about any g i v e n v a l u e o f X w i l l be v e r y l a r g e . We f i n d s i t e s w i t h h i g h non-use/use r a t i o s o v er r a l l v a l u e s o f t h e independent v a r i a b l e s . As an example, F i g u r e I , page 4 4 , i l l u s t r a t e s a weak s i m p l e r e l a t i o n s h i p , though one found t o be q u i t e p o w e r f u l when c o n s i d e r e d i n a m u l t i p l e s i t u a t i o n . The p r e c e d i n g attempt a t model b u i l d i n g i s not t o t a l l y w i t h o u t r e w a r d . The s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n model, though o f f e r i n g a low l e v e l o f e x p l a n a t i o n , does p r o v i d e an 'early h i n t o f the s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d v a r i a b l e s . Only y e a r s on s i t e , v a l u e p e r a c r e , and a s s e t s ( c o r p o r a t e s i z e ) o f f e r e d a s i g n i f i c a n t e x p l a n a t i o n . S c a l e o f p l a n t , e x p a n s i o n p l a n s , o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s , and time o r d i s t a n c e from c i t y c e n t e r c o u l d add n o t h i n g o f s i g n i f i c a n c e t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n . Amount o f S i t e Unused Through i t s n a t u r e as a r a t i o , t he p r e c e d i n g dependent v a r i a b l e l a c k s meaning i n t h e c o n c r e t e , m a t e r i a l sense. I s 36 one concerned equally with 50 per cent of 0.5 acre (11,000 sq. f t . ) and 50 per cent of 200 acres (4,355,000 sq. f t . ) ? In terms of r e a l space, one i s much more concerned with the amount of land considered rather than a r a t i o of unused land to a subdivided p l o t . The amount of land unused on a p a r t i c u l a r s i t e i s r e a d i l y arrived at — simple m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of s i t e size times the per cent unused f i g u r e . This v a r i a b l e , because of i t s composition, leaves a large number of zero elements. The 152 non-zero elements are a close approximation of the normal d i s t r i b u t i o n when logged to the base 10. ' Step-wise regression provided the following r e s u l t s when calculated for the "non-zero per cent of s i t e unused" population, where s i t e size i s not allowed to enter the equation: ' cumulative variance variance amount of land unused (log) =5.98 reduction reduction Sy -.86 x value of land per acre(log) 0.48 0.48 .670 +.55 x employment (log) . 0.20 0.68 .489 +.21 x assets (log) 0.05 0-73 .485 (where the dependent variable has a mean of 4.145 and standard deviation of 0.9245) It should be noted i n t h i s analysis the s i t e size independent variable was e x p l i c i t l y l e f t out of the model. The rat i o n a l e for t h i s w i l l be made clear l a t e r ; i t has to do with the fact that s i t e size i s not a l o g i c a l explanation for the TABLE I CONTRIBUTION TO VARIANCE REDUCTION FOR THE TOTAL POPULATION Per Cent of Site Unused Amount of Land Unused Structural Density years on s i t e expansion plans on-site expansion plans distance from C.B.D. time from C.B.D. land value/acre assets employment s i t e size step-wise regression step-wise regression step-wise regression s i t e size s i t e size simple s i t e size s i t e size simple s i t e size s i t e s i z e simple allowed not allowed regression allowed not allowed regression allowed not allowed regression 0.0162 0.0226 0252 0379 2558 -0.0136 0.0082 ,011)1 ,2163 ,0611 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.16 0.22 0.13 0.01 0.25 -0 .0020 0 .0013 0.0110 0.0056 -0 .0037 0.7682 0.0033 0.0038 -0.1501 0.1392 0.0298 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.27 0.26 -0.45 0.29 0.21 0.77 0.0059 0.0099 0.0071 0.1401 -0.5520 0.5230 -0.0037 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.21 -0.17 0.46 -0.05 -0.02 -0.49 t o t a l r i n step-wise regression (percentage) 36 32 79 63 72 53 Each r f i t t e d with a - sign indicates an inverse r e l a t i o n s h i p . Variables are included i n step-wise regressions i f the pr o b a b i l i t y of obtaining an F-value greater than or equal to the one calculated i s less than 0 . 0 5 . Variables and equations are discussed i n the text. o TABLE I I CONTRIBUTION TO VARIANCE REDUCTION FOR NON-ZERO.PER CENT OF SITE UNUSED (191 o b s e r v a t i o n s ) Per Cent o f S i t e Unused Amount o f Unused Land s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n s i t e s i z e s i t e s i z e s i m p l e s i t e s i z e s i t e s i z e s i m p l e a l l o w e d not a l l o w e d r e g r e s s i o n a l l o w e d not a l l o w e d r e g r e s s i o n y e a r s on s i t e -0.0610 e x p a n s i o n p l a n s o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n t i m e from C.B.D. d i s t a n c e from C.B.D. l a n d v a l u e / a c r e ( l o g ) -0.1023 a s s e t s ( l o g ) 0.0303 employment ( l o g ) s i t e s i z e ( l o g ) 0.0596 -0.0588 • 0.1044 0.0261 •0.06 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 •0.10 0.05 0.00 0.08 • 0 .0044 •0.0047 0 . 9 2 1 3 -0.4766 0.0499 0.1987 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 2 3 0.19 •0.48 0 . 3 5 0 . 3 7 0 . 9 2 t o t a l r i n a s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n ( p e r c e n t a g e ) ' 2 5 19 93 73 CO TABLE I I I CONTRIBUTION TO VARIANCE REDUCTION FOR THE POPULATION'SORTED FOR NON-ZERO PER CENT OF SITE UNUSED AND HAVING EXPANSION PLANS (55 o b s e r v a t i o n s ) Per Cent o f S i t e Unused Amount o f Land Unused s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n s i t e s i z e s i t e s i z e s i m p l e s i t e s i z e s i t e s i z e s i m p l e a l l o w e d not a l l o w e d r e g r e s s i o n a l l o w e d not a l l o w e d r e g r e s s i o n y e a r s on s i t e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n t i m e from C.B.D. d i s t a n c e from C.B.D. l a n d v a l u e / a c r e ( l o g ) a s s e t s ( l o g ) employment ( l o g ) s i t e s i z e ( l o g ) - 0 . 0 7 5 1 - 0 . 2 1 2 1 0 . 0 8 3 2 - 0 . 0 7 7 0 - 0 . 2 1 2 1 - 0 . 1 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 7 0 . 0 5 - 0 . 2 1 0 . 0 5 - 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 2 - 0 .0097 0 . 9 0 9 2 -0. 5441 0.2581 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 1 2 0 . 0 6 - 0 . 5 4 0 . 3 1 0 . 5 1 0 . 9 1 t o t a l r i n a s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n ( p e r c e n t a g e ) 37 29 92 80 CO TABLE IV CONTRIBUTION TO VARIANCE REDUCTION FOR THE POPULATION SORTED FOR EXPANSION PLANS (152 o b s e r v a t i o n s ) Per Cent o f S i t e Unused Amount o f Land Unused s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n s i t e s i z e s i t e s i z e s i m p l e s i t e s i z e s i t e s i z e s i m p l e a l l o w e d not a l l o w e d r e g r e s s i o n a l l o w e d not a l l o w e d r e g r e s s i o n y e a r s on s i t e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n t i m e from C.B.D. d i s t a n c e from C.B.D. l a n d v a l u e / a c r e ( l o g ) a s s e t s ( l o g ) employment ( l o g ) s i t e s i z e ( l o g ) 0.0530 0.0455 •0.0185 0.0278 •0.0535 0.2122 •0.2088 0.0618 -0.01 0 .00 0.13 0.12 0.10 -0.21 0.22 0 .02 0.21 0 .0221 0.0104 0.0102 •0 .0060 0 . 7 2 7 2 0.0436 •0.3740 0.1803 0.0412 0 . 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 .15 0 .17 0 . 1 3 - 0 . 3 7 0 . 3 1 0 . 2 6 0 . 7 3 2 t o t a l r i n a s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n ( p e r c e n t a g e ) 36 32 77 64 o TABLE V CORRELATION MATRIX OF DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES FOR THE TOTAL POPULATION 1 . 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A B C employment ( l o g ) 1 1 .00 y e a r s on s i t e 2 .22 1 .00 e x p a n s i o n p l a n s 3 . 0 4 - . 0 4 1 . 0 0 • o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n 4 . 0 4 - . 0 5 .65 1 .00 time from C.B.D. 5 .11 - . 0 1 .03 .12 1 .00 d i s t a n c e from C.B.D. 6 . 0 8 . 0 3 .01 .09 .95 1 . 0 0 l a n d v a l u e p e r a c r e ( l o g ) 7 - . 1 8 .06 - . 0 1 - . 1 1 - . 7 4 - . 6 9 1 . 0 0 a s s e t s ( l o g ) 8 .55 .12 .10 .12 .19 .17 - . 2 6 1 . 0 0 s i t e s i z e ( l o g ) 9 .60 .13 - . 0 1 .10 • 50 . 4 6 - . 7 0 .57 1 . 0 0 P e r Cent o f S i t e Unused A .16 .09 . 0 4 .17 . 4 0 . 4 0 - . 4 7 • 36 • 51 1 . 0 0 Amount o f Unused Land ( l o g ) B . 4 6 . 0 5 . 0 2 .16 • 52 .50 - . 6 7 .54 . 8 8 . 8 2 s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y ( l o g ) C - . 1 5 - . 0 6 . 0 2 - . 0 7 - . 5 4 - . 5 1 .72 - . 2 5 - . 7 4 - . 5 0 dependent variable amount of s i t e unused, although as we s h a l l also see l a t e r , i t may be a good predictor df i t . Except for the distance from major C.B.D. measures, t h i s step-regression tends to r e f l e c t the simple regression of amount of unused land summarized i n Table I I . Years on s i t e and expansion plans are not s i g n i f i c a n t i n either simple or multiple explanations. A further step-wise regression allows s i t e size to enter the equation and y i e l d s : cumulative amount of land unused (log) = I . 8 7 variance variance reduction reduction Sy +1.05 x s i t e size (log) 0 . 9 2 1 0 . 9 2 1 0 . 2 6 0 - 0 . 0 1 x years on s i t e 0 . 0 0 5 0 . 9 2 6 0.253 - 0 . 1 0 x value per acre (log) 0.004 ' 0 . 9 3 0 0.245 (where the dependent variable has a mean of 4.145 and standard deviation of 0 . 9 2 4 5 ) It i s cle a r that s i t e size t o t a l l y dominates the equation. Cor r e l a t i o n analysis (Table V) indicates a strong r e l a t i o n s h i p between s i t e size and the amount of land unused: the larger the s i t e , the greater w i l l be the amount of land unused. This i s of course i n t u i t i v e l y obvious, for i t i s only large s i t e s that can have great amounts of unused land. But the closeness of t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s so fine that one would tend to believe that the two are measures of the same phenomenon. Simple l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n o f t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 4, on page 47. The p r e c e d i n g d i s c u s s i o n o f unused l a n d has i l l u s t r a t e d t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x i s t between t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d v a r i a b l e s . I n a d d i t i o n i t i s c l e a r t h a t s i t e s i z e b e a r s a p o w e r f u l r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h amount o f unused l a n d . I n one s e n s e , the a n a l y s i s i s s u c c e s s f u l and complete. S i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n -s h i p s were h y p o t h e s i z e d , t e s t e d and found e i t h e r adequate o r w a n t i n g . However, a q u a l i f i c a t i o n s h o u l d be added t o t h e above argument. The b a s i s o f r e g r e s s i o n i s c o r r e l a t i o n . C o r r e l a t i o n i n v o l v e s a r e l a t i o n s h i p between v a r i a b l e s , w h i l e r e g r e s s i o n i n v o l v e s p r e d i c t i o n o f one v a r i a b l e by a n o t h e r . Two i n s u r m o u n t a b l e problems e x i s t i n the p r e c e d i n g a n a l y s i s o f t h e amount o f unused l a n d . B o t h o f t h e s e problems i n v o l v e p r e d i c t i o n . R e g r e s s i o n l i n e s may be f i t t e d t o many p a i r s o f v a r i a b l e s , but r e g r e s s i o n i m p l i e s a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between X and Y. Such a c a u s e / e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p must be j u s t i f i a b l e " u n d e r c l o s e s c r u t i n y . The s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p between s i t e s i z e and amount o f unused l a n d cannot be thought t o be c a u s a l . How can t h e s i z e o f s i t e cause an amount o f l a n d t o be unused? We can e a s i l y a p p r e c i a t e t h a t a l a r g e s i t e a l l o w s a l a r g e amount o f unused l a n d , o r s i m i l a r l y t h a t a s m a l l s i t e d i s a l l o w s the p r e s e n c e o f much unused l a n d . But a l a r g e s i t e cannot be thought t o d e t e r m i n e a g i v e n amount o f unused l a n d — a l l o f t h e s i t e b e a r s t h e FIGURE 1 . PLOT OF VALUE OF LAND PER ACRE ON PER CENT OF SITE UNUSED 0.9894E 02 0.8052F C2 0.6211E 02 • » * 2 • • 2 3« » 2* • «2«* »» « »» 2 * * » » «« •*« 0.4369E 02 2 • • * • 2- 2»» • • * • • • • • • 0.2528E 02 • 2 • * • • * « 2 *• 0.22750F 01 0.27606E 01 C.32*626 01 0.37318E 01 0.42175F 01 0.47031E 01 0.25178E 01 0.30034F 01 0.34890E 01 0.39T46E 01 0.44603E 01 0.49459E 01 NUIBER OF OBSFRVATIONS- 191 INCREMENT V • 1.842 INCREMENT X • 0.024 FIGURE 2. PLOT OF VALUE OF LAND PER•ACRE ON AMOUNT OF LAND UNUSED 0.6413F CI Amount Unused (log) = 8.2187 - 1.1170 (log of value per acre), R =0.48 Where Amount Unused has: mean = 4.145 standard deviation = 0.924|5 0.«76*E CI • * * and standard error = 0.6706 * 3 • * • • 0.3935E 01 G.3105E 01 * • 0.22750E 01 0.27606E 01 0.32462E 01 0.37318E 01 0.4217SE 01 0.47031E 01 0.25178E 01 0.30034E 01 0.34890E 01 0.39746E 01 0.44603E 01 0.*9*59E 01 NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS- 191 INCREMENT Y • 0.083 INCREMENT X - 0.024 FIGURE 3. PLOT OF CORPORATE ASSETS ON AMOUNT OF LAND UNUSED 0.6*2'»F 01 Amount Unused = 3-3301 + 0.4586 (log of assets), R 2 = 0.35- Where Amount Unused has mean = 4.145, standard deviation = 0.924*5 standard error • 0.7501 0.5594E 01 0.3935F Ol 2 2 0.3105E Ol 2 • - " 2 0.37266E oo C.lllBOF 01 C.l86i3£ 61 0 . 2 6 O S 7 E O l 0 . 3 J 5 4 6 E 0 1 61 G.7*5»3E 00 0.1400 76 01 0.22360E 01 0.29813E 01 0.37266E 01 0.44770E 01 NUMBER OF ORSFRVA TIMNS* I«»1 INCRFMENT V • 0.083 INCREMENT X • 0.037 FIGURE 4. PLOT OF SITE SIZE ON AMOUNT OF LAND UNUSED > C.fr423E 01 ? Amount Unused ( l o g ) = 1.3745 + R 2 = 0 . 9 2 1.0721 ( l o g o f S i t e S i z e ) . 1 yT • * • yS 01 • Where Amount Unused ( l o g ) has: ! mean = 4.145, * * >r * * Z* yS m » • yT • mm m * m y* mm 0.4764F Cl s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n = 0.9245, s t a n d a r d e r r o r = 0.2600 • • / m m * j r o 2 • yS• mm « mS m •m* 42 » ^ » «« 5 / » , * • * » »» *2 **« » 2» » ** * * y* m * >y m **• » V"* * 2 C.39356 Cl • - — * z * / . * ** 2 ~/ . • * 2« • X 2 * * * * * /2 . * * yS * * 2* ~ * * * jr * • * » . « » « * • O.3105E 01 24 * * • y/* * . * * * . * yT - * • * * * * * • 9 * . yS " ^yr m . . . . . 0.11506E 01 0.177566 01 C.24CC6E 0.14&31E 01 0.208816 01 61 0.271316 0 . 3 0 2 5 A E 01 0 . 3 6 5 0 4 E 01 0 . 4 2 7 5 & E 0 1 01 0.33381E 01 0.39631E 01 0.45881E 01 NUMBER Of OBSERVATIONS' 191 INCREMENT Y » 0.063 INCREMENT X • 0.031 J FIGURE 6 . PLOT OF SITE SIZE ON STRUCTURAL DENSITY 0.4292E CI Structural Density (log) = 3-3174 - 0 . 5 0 8 5 (log of Site Size) R = 0 . 5 5 . Where St r u c t u r a l Density has mean = 2 . 2 9 0 , 0 . 3 4 0 8 E 01 3 standard deviation = 0 . 5 4 7 6 standard error = O .3669 0.2S24t 01 2^V7I *S « »« 5« w » * » * " - 3 2 3 * 2 4 2 « 2 » 3 2 2 * • * 4 » * 2 ? 2 ^ » 3« 3 3 2 * * « 2 2 * » 2 » * 2 4 4 3 3 * ~ < u » » 2 7 » * 22 22 • * • * « * « 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 5 2 3 > * * * 3 3 2 * » * » » 2 « 2 2 3 2 » ««3«23^>a« 2»2« » 4 « « 2 • »2 2 * 4 • 2 2*^ *f*» * 2 * • 2 * * * • * * 2*** *2 * * 32**X2* • 4 ** » » • 2* t> 3 * * mm* 2*** 2*"-»*2 2 • 2* * » • •• * 2 • » • • »**• « s « « ** »4 • » • * * *»** «2 * * * * • * • ** *»* * • • * • 0.1639E 01 0.7552F 00 0.38235E 00 0.11470E 01 0. 19U7E 01 0.26764E 01 0.3441 IE 01 0.42058E 01 0.76469E 00 0.15294E 01 0.22941E 01 0.30588E 01 0.38235E 01 0.45881E 01 NUMBER OF OBSFRV&TIONS- 586 INCREMENT X « 0.088 INCREMENT X 0.038 5 0 p o s s i b i l i t y o f use or d i s u s e . The r e g r e s s i o n model, a l t h o u g h 2 a p p e a l i n g because o f the h i g h r , must be d i s c o u n t e d because o f a l a c k o f s u p p o r t f o r a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p . The second problem r u l e s out t h e u s e f u l n e s s f o r p r e d i c t i o n o f even an u n q u e s t i o n e d c a u s e / e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p . The attempt t o p r e d i c t Y from X r e q u i r e s a c l e a r d e f i n i t i o n and measurement o f b o t h v a r i a b l e s . I n t h i s case Y e q u a l s th e amount o f unused l a n d — but the z e r o elements are s o r t e d out o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h i s e f f o r t t h e n becomes an attempt t o p r e d i c t t h a t w h i c h we a l r e a d y know. An a c t u a l e f f o r t t o p r e d i c t must i n v o l v e t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n and t h e t o t a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e amount o f unused l a n d . Our i n t e r e s t l i e s i n t h e l a n d unused on each and e v e r y s i t e — not i n t h o s e s i t e s on w h i c h we know t h a t some l a n d i s unused. P r e d i c t i o n o f the amount o f unused l a n d on a s i t e y i e l d s 2 ' an r o f 0 . 7 3 ( s i t e s i z e not a l l o w e d ) when the p o p u l a t i o n i s s o r t e d f o r non-zero e l e m e n t s , but when t r e a t i n g t h e whole p p o p u l a t i o n the r i s r e d u c e d t o 0 . 6 3 - (Such a r e g r e s s i o n i s a c c o m p l i s h e d by assuming t h a t one p e r cent o f each a c t u a l l y f u l l s i t e i s unused, thus p r o v i d i n g t o t a l l y p o s i t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f 2 t h e t r a n s f o r m e d Y.) The drop i n t o t a l r appears t o be due p r i m a r i l y t o the d e c r e a s e i n t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power of p l a n t s c a l e (employment). Good p r e d i c t i v e models have been d e v e l o p e d but a r e c u r t a i l e d by a l a c k o f a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between the most p o w e r f u l e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e and t h e dependent v a r i a b l e . 50 p o s s i b i l i t y o f use or d i s u s e . The r e g r e s s i o n model, a l t h o u g h 2 a p p e a l i n g because o f the h i g h r , must be d i s c o u n t e d because o f a l a c k o f s u p p o r t f o r a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p . The second problem r u l e s out t h e u s e f u l n e s s f o r p r e d i c t i o n o f even an u n q u e s t i o n e d c a u s e / e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p . The attempt t o p r e d i c t Y from X r e q u i r e s a c l e a r d e f i n i t i o n and measurement o f b o t h v a r i a b l e s . I n t h i s case Y e q u a l s the amount o f unused l a n d — b u t t h e z e r o elements are s o r t e d out o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h i s e f f o r t t h e n becomes an attempt t o p r e d i c t t h a t w h i c h we a l r e a d y know. An a c t u a l e f f o r t t o p r e d i c t must i n v o l v e t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n and t h e t o t a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e amount o f unused l a n d . Our i n t e r e s t l i e s i n t h e l a n d unused on each and e v e r y s i t e — not i n t h o s e s i t e s on w h i c h we know t h a t some l a n d i s unused. P r e d i c t i o n o f t h e amount o f unused l a n d on a s i t e y i e l d s an r o f 0 .73 ( s i t e s i z e not a l l o w e d ) when the p o p u l a t i o n i s s o r t e d f o r non-zero e l e m e n t s , but when t r e a t i n g t h e whole p o p u l a t i o n the r i s r e d u c e d t o 0 . 6 3 . (Such a r e g r e s s i o n i s a c c o m p l i s h e d by assuming t h a t one p e r cent o f each a c t u a l l y f u l l s i t e i s unused, thus p r o v i d i n g t o t a l l y p o s i t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f 2 t h e t r a n s f o r m e d Y.) The drop i n t o t a l r appears t o be due p r i m a r i l y t o the d e c r e a s e i n the e x p l a n a t o r y power o f p l a n t s c a l e (employment). Good p r e d i c t i v e models have been d e v e l o p e d but a r e c u r t a i l e d by a l a c k o f a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between the most p o w e r f u l e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e and t h e dependent v a r i a b l e . I n v e s t i g a t i o n o f c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s p r o v i d e s a more j u s t i f i e d e x p l a n a t i o n , much l e s s . ( s i t e s i z e not a l l o w e d ) but one t h a t e x p l a i n s S t r u c t u r a l D e n s i t y We have two c l e a r cut measures o f t h e i n t e n s i t y o r degree of l a n d use. As a l r e a d y i n d i c a t e d , the p e r c e n t a g e o f s i t e unused was found t o be i n c a p a b l e o f n o r m a l i z a t i o n because o f the l a r g e number o f z e r o e l e m e n t s . Such i s not the case w i t h s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y . T h i s measure o f s i t e u s e , the r a t i o o f square f e e t o f b u i l d i n g t o square f e e t o f s i t e , c o n t a i n s o n l y p o s i t i v e e l e m e n t s , and i s q u i t e n o r m a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d when l o g g e d t o base 1 0 . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h i s v a r i a b l e was o n l y i n v e s t i g a t e d o v e r t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n ( 5 8 6 c a s e s ) . S t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y has a few weaknesses as a measure o f s i t e use. B u i l d i n g c o v e r a g e , the numerator i n t h i s r a t i o , i s d e t e r m i n e d by t h e base a r e a o f t h e s t r u c t u r e . The h e i g h t and number o f f l o o r s i s i g n o r e d . I n s e v e r a l c i t i e s o f t h e w o r l d t h i s would be an i m p o r t a n t o m i s s i o n . I t i s f e l t , however, t h a t G r e a t e r Vancouver c o n t a i n s few m u l t i p l e s t o r e y m a n u f a c t u r i n g p l a n t s . B u i l d i n g h e i g h t s do v a r y c o n s i d e r a b l y due t o t h e n a t u r e o f m a n u f a c t u r i n g w i t h i n them. Data on number o f s t o r e y s i s u n a v a i l a b l e , and a i r photo i n t e r p r e t a t i o n cannot r e a d i l y d i s t i n g u i s h between a two s t o r e y s t r u c t u r e and one w i t h a h i g h r o o f . I n any case s u b j e c t i v e o b s e r v a t i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t the number o f m u l t i p l e s t o r i e d s t r u c t u r e s i s s m a l l , and h e i g h t o f a s t r u c t u r e i s not c l e a r l y r e l a t e d t o t h e use o f a s i t e . A s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n was at t e m p t e d o f s t r u c t u r a l 2 d e n s i t y and an r o f 53 p e r cent was o b t a i n e d from t h e e q u a t i o n c u m u l a t i v e s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y ( l o g ) = 0 . 3 0 v a r i a n c e v a r i a n c e r e d u c t i o n r e d u c t i o n Sy +0.6415 x v a l u e o f l a n d p e r a c r e ( l o g ) 0 . 5 2 3 0 0 . 5 2 3 0 0 . 3 7 8 5 - 0 . 0 3 2 1 x a s s e t s ( l o g ) 0 . 0 0 3 7 0 . 5 2 6 7 0 .3774 (where t h e dependent v a r i a b l e has a mean o f 2 . 2 9 0 and a s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f 0 . 5 4 7 6 ) T h i s e q u a t i o n r e f l e c t s the s i m p l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e inde p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s and t h e dependent v a r i a b l e w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f d i s t a n c e from C.B.D. D i s t a n c e -was e l i m i n a t e d from s i g n i f i c a n c e i n t h e e q u a t i o n because o f i t s h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h v a l u e o f l a n d p e r a c r e ( r ranges from 0 . 5 1 t o 0 . 5 4 ) . The o t h e r v a r i a b l e s not o f f e r i n g a s i g n i f i c a n t a d d i t i o n t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n d i d not have s t r o n g s i m p l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h 2 s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y as can be seen i n t h e i r low r i n s i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n i n T a b l e I I . 2 A l l o w i n g s i t e s i z e t o e n t e r t h e e q u a t i o n r a i s e s t h e r from 53 p e r cen t t o 72 p e r cent and changes t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s . Comparison o f t h e two e q u a t i o n s i s f a c i l i t a t e d by T a b l e I I . I t i s e a s i l y seen t h a t s i t e s i z e a c c o u n t s f o r much 53 o f the v a r i a t i o n w i t h s c a l e o f p l a n t (employment) o f f e r i n g the o n l y o t h e r l a r g e c o n t r i b u t i o n . They account f o r 95 p e r cent of the r e d u c t i o n o f v a r i a n c e . O ther v a r i a b l e s e n t e r t h e e q u a t i o n , but c o n t r i b u t e v e r y l i t t l e . The same q u a l i f i c a t i o n s must be e n t e r e d as have been e n t e r e d p r e v i o u s l y about th e c a u s e / v e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p o f s i t e s i z e t o s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . Independent V a r i a b l e s I n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f each independent v a r i a b l e can a l s o be p r e s e n t e d s e p a r a t e l y , but such s e p a r a t e t r e a t m e n t must not f o r g e t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between each v a r i a b l e and the o t h e r e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s . The s i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x i n d i c a t e s t h e degree t o w h i c h th e independent v a r i a b l e s a r e i n t e r r e l a t e d ( T a b l e V ) . R e f e r e n c e s back t o t h i s t a b l e w i l l be n e c e s s a r y i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f v a r i a b l e s ' i n c l u s i o n or e x c l u s i o n , w h i c h i s based upon r e g r e s s i o n . The c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x i s t h e b a s i s o f r e g r e s s i o n . By k e e p i n g t h i s m a t r i x i n mind, we are a b l e t o more f u l l y a p p r e c i a t e t h e v a r i o u s r e g r e s s i o n models. Y e a r s on S i t e I f e x c e s s l a n d i s p u r c h a s e d on i n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t o f an i n d u s t r i a l s i t e , - such o v e r - p u r c h a s e i s commonly r e g a r d e d as a r e s e r v e f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n . The p a s s i n g o f the f u t u r e i n t o the p r e s e n t and t h e n i n t o t h e p a s t s h o u l d b r i n g about a g r e a t e r use o f t h a t s i t e . A n a l y s i s o f t h i s v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t e s t h a t such 54 e x p e c t a t i o n s do not r e s u l t , i f i n d e e d e x c e s s l a n d i s p u r c h a s e d f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n . The number o f y e a r s on a s i t e shows no c o n s i s t e n t b e h a v i o r i n p r o v i d i n g a s i g n i f i c a n t e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s . There e x i s t s a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h amount  unused and s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y but a n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h the p e r cen t o f s i t e unused. S i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n shows a f a i r l y 2 2 h i g h r f o r amount o f s i t e unused and v e r y low r f o r t h e o t h e r 2 two. T h i s h i g h e r r i s a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p and i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e l o n g e r a s i t e has been h e l d , t h e g r e a t e r i s the a r e a u n u t i l i z e d . T h i s would t e n d t o i n d i c a t e a n u l l h y p o t h e s i s , but perhaps t h e l o n g e r - h e l d s i t e s d i f f e r i n o t h e r r e s p e c t s . T h i s h y p o t h e s i s , t o be f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d , must be ju d g e d as o n l y one of s e v e r a l a c t i n g s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . S t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n a l l o w s an assessment o f the h y p o t h e s i s over a range o f c o n d i t i o n s t o t e s t i t s w o r t h i n a d d i n g t o a t o t a l e x p l a n a t i o n . W i t h t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , i t i s seen from T a b l e I t h a t y e a r s on s i t e adds s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n i n f o u r out o f s i x step-wise' r e g r e s s i o n s . W i t h p e r cent o f s i t e  unused as t h e dependent v a r i a b l e , y e a r s on s i t e i s s i g n i f i c a n t w i t h a n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p t h u s t e n d i n g t o c o n f i r m t h e i n i t i a l h y p o t h e s i s . I t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e amount o f unused l a n d i s e i t h e r n e g a t i v e o r i n s i g n i f i c a n t , t h u s i n d i c a t i n g o n l y a v e r y weak c o n f i r m a t i o n o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s . S i m i l a r l y i n the e x p l a n a t i o n o f s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y i t i s e i t h e r p o s i t i v e o r i n s i g n i f i c a n t ; a g a i n p r o v i d i n g v e r y weak c o n f i r m a t i o n . 55 . These weak c o n f i r m a t i o n s a re i n d e e d weak. I n s i m p l e o r m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n o f the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , y e a r s on s i t e n e v er r e a c h e s a l e v e l o f 2 p e r cent e x p l a n a t i o n . T h i s low c o n t r i b u t i o n , c o u p l e d w i t h i t s s w i t c h from d i r e c t t o i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h p e r cent o f s i t e unused i n the two m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n s , f o r c e s one t o s u s p e c t i t s w o r t h as an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e i n t e n s i t y o f s i t e use. C o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e o t h e r t h r e e p o p u l a t i o n s i n d i c a t e s a somewhat s t r o n g e r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h p e r cent o f s i t e unused. F i g u r e s i n T a b l e I I i n d i c a t e a f a i r l y c o n s t a n t 6 p e r cent v a r i a n c e r e d u c t i o n i n t h e p e r c e n t a g e f i g u r e , b o t h i n t h e s i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n and i n t h e m u l t i p l e s i t u a t i o n s . A n a l y s i s has i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d r e l a t i o n s h i p has l i t t l e power. I t c o n t r i b u t e s l i t t l e o r n o t h i n g when c o n s i d e r e d a l o n e , and i n m u l t i p l e s i t u a t i o n s o f f e r s a low l e v e l and i n c o n s i s t e n t e x p l a n a t i o n . I f exc e s s l a n d s a r e i n i t i a l l y p u r c h a s e d t o f a c i l i t a t e f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n , we may c o n c l u d e t h a t no tendency t o use up t h i s e x c e s s l a n d has been i n d i c a t e d . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t e x p a n s i o n d i d i n f a c t "take p l a c e and t h a t o t h e r f a c t o r s w h i c h d e t e r m i n e i n t e n s i t y a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t i m e s i n c e  i n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t , t h u s d i s g u i s i n g any o f i t s e x p l a n a t o r y power. T h i s a n a l y s i s , t h e n , does not a l l o w a n u l l h y p o t h e s i s . A l l t h a t can be c l a i m e d i s t h a t a b a s i s has been p r o v i d e d f o r q u e s t i o n i n g t h e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s e x p l a n a t i o n o f e x c e s s s i t e p u r c h a s e s . 56 Land f o r E x p a n s i o n When l a n d g r e a t e r t h a n p r e s e n t needs i s h e l d , t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l but u n c o n f i r m e d e x p l a n a t i o n has been t h a t e x c e s s s i t e s i z e s a r e p u r c h a s e d t o f a c i l i t a t e f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n . A n a l y s i s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e s I I I and IV was co n d u c t e d f o r t h e s p e c i f i c purpose o f i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t e x c e s s l a n d i s h e l d f o r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n . Here we have two p o p u l a t i o n s , b o t h s o r t e d f o r t h o s e p l a n t s whose management p l a n s e x p a n s i o n . One p o p u l a t i o n c o n s i s t s o f a l l p l a n t s w i t h e x p a n s i o n p l a n s and the o t h e r o f o n l y t h o s e t h a t have room f o r o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n (because t h e y have some p o r t i o n o f t h e i r s i t e s u n used). I n T a b l e I V , c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s g i v e n t o t h a t p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h has e x p a n s i o n p l a n s . S i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s account f o r o n l y 13 p e r cent o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e p e r cent o f s i t e unused. T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s much weaker i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n shown i n T a b l e I I I , where t h e r e d u c t i o n o f v a r i a n c e i s o n l y 2 p e r c e n t . I n a m u l t i p l e e x p l a n a t i o n , i t i s o n l y i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n s o r t e d f o r e x p a n s i o n p l a n s t h a t o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s make a c o n t r i b u t i o n o f over one p e r cen t t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f s i t e unused. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t o v e r 78 per cent o f t h o s e s i t e s h a v i n g unused p o r t i o n s d i d not have any p l a n s f o r e x p a n s i o n . A n a l y s i s has shown t h e n , t h a t w h i l e t h e h y p o t h e s i s i s c o n f i r m e d , i t does not have t h e i n f l u e n c e g e n e r a l l y a t t r i b u t e d t o i t i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e . 57 D i s t a n c e f rom C i t y C e n t e r A n a l y s i s shows a h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n between t r a v e l t i me t o p l a n t s f rom t h e C.B.D. and t h e i r l i n e a r d i s t a n c e from t h e C.B.D. T a b l e V shows an r v a l u e o f 0.95 between t h e two. I n m u l t i p l e e x p l a n a t i o n s , i f one o f t h e two measures adds s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n , t h e o t h e r i s i n v a r i a b l y not a c c e p t e d . Because o f t h i s c l o s e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p t h e y w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d as one v a r i a b l e — d i s t a n c e from C.B.D. R e f e r r i n g t o T a b l e I , u t i l i z i n g t h e whole p o p u l a t i o n , d i s t a n c e i s one o f t h e more s i g n i f i c a n t i ndependent v a r i a b l e s when a s s e s s e d by s i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n . I t o f f e r s a v a r i a n c e r e d u c t i o n from 16 p e r cent t o 27 p e r cent f o r t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s . On t h i s b a s i s a l o n e the h y p o t h e s i s i s c o n f i r m e d . But i n m u l t i p l e e x p l a n a t i o n s d i s t a n c e from C.B.D. does not add much over 2 p e r cent t o t h e t o t a l e x p l a n a t i o n o f any dependent v a r i a b l e . T h i s i s t o be e x p e c t e d when one c o n s i d e r s t h e - c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x i n T a b l e V. The two d i s t a n c e measures c o r r e l a t e h i g h l y w i t h l a n d v a l u e s and s i t e s i z e . One o f t h e s e l a t t e r measures i s i n c l u d e d i n each m u l t i p l e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n and u n d o u b t e d l y a c c o u n t s f o r much o f t h e v a r i a t i o n t h a t would o t h e r w i s e be e x p l a i n e d by t h e d i s t a n c e measures. I n o t h e r words, d i s t a n c e b e a r s l i t t l e r e l a t i o n s h i p t o the r e s i d u a l s from r e g r e s s i o n o f e i t h e r s i t e s i z e o r v a l u e p e r  a c r e . D i s t a n c e t h e n , when c o n s i d e r e d a l o n e , appears t o o f f e r a 58 q u i t e s i g n i f i c a n t e x p l a n a t i o n . But when i t i s grouped w i t h o t h e r v a r i a b l e s , much o f i t s e x p l a n a t o r y powers a r e assumed by o t h e r independent v a r i a b l e s t h a t t e n d t o c o - v a r y w i t h i t . The h y p o t h e s i s i s m i l d l y c o n f i r m e d , s i n c e t h e r e has been no s u g g e s t i o n t h a t an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s . V a l u e o f Land p e r Acre S i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e v a l u e p e r a c r e c o n s i s t e n t l y o f f e r s one o f t h e h i g h e s t e x p l a n a t i o n s o f a l l independent v a r i a b l e s . I n f a c t , o n l y t h e s i z e o f s i t e p r o v i d e s 2 a h i g h e r c o r r e l a t i o n o r r w i t h t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s . C o n s i d e r e d as t h e o n l y e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e , i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h amount unused and s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y i s v i s u a l l y v e r y s t r i k i n g ( F i g u r e s 1 , 2 and 5 ) . V a l u e p e r a c r e p r o v i d e s o n l y a 2 ' low r i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r p e r cent o f s i t e unused. S t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n tends t o p r o v i d e a s i m i l a r assessment o f v a l u e as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e . W i t h the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , v a l u e p e r a c r e i s o n l y removed from t h e e x p l a n a t i o n by s i t e s i z e , w i t h w h i c h i t i s h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d ( r = 0.70 i n the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n ) . V a l u e p e r a c r e has s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h most o f the o t h e r independent v a r i a b l e s . Thus, i t tends t o remove s e v e r a l o f t h e s e , t h a t t h e n o f f e r l o w e r l e v e l s o f e x p l a n a t i o n when a l l a re c o n s i d e r e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . I n r e g a r d t o t h e h y p o t h e s i s , s t r o n g c o n f i r m a t i o n i s i n d i c a t e d by a n a l y s i s . 59 C o r p o r a t e A s s e t s U s i n g a l l f o u r p o p u l a t i o n s ( t o t a l , some p o r t i o n unused, some p o r t i o n unused and h a v i n g e x p a n s i o n p l a n s , and h a v i n g e x p a n s i o n p l a n s ) , s i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n o f dependent v a r i a b l e s r e v e a l s a s i g n i f i c a n t but weak r e l a t i o n s h i p between them and the a s s e t s o f s i t e h o l d e r s . F o r t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n T a b l e I 2 a s s e t s o f f e r s an r o f 0.05 f o r s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y , 0.13 f o r pe r c e n t o f s i t e unused and 0.29 f o r amount o f l a n d unused. R e f e r e n c e t o t h e o t h e r t h r e e p o p u l a t i o n s i n T a b l e s I I t o I V i n d i c a t e s s i m i l a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h i c h t e n d t o c o n f i r m t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d r e l a t i o n s h i p . F i g u r e 3 p r o v i d e s a v i s u a l example of t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p . I n t h e m u l t i p l e models d e v e l o p e d a s s e t s o f f e r s a more l i m i t e d c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n . Because a s s e t s i s h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h s i t e s i z e ( r = 0.57 f o r t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n ) , t h e i n c l u s i o n o f s i t e s i z e i n t h e s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n r e d u c e s the a d d i t i o n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n o f a s s e t s t o l e s s t h a n one per cent and, i n t h e case o f s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y , changes t h e d i r e c t i o n o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p from i n v e r s e t o d i r e c t . When s i t e s i z e i s not a l l o w e d t o e n t e r t h e s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n a s s e t s i s c o n s i s t e n t l y second t o v a l u e p e r a c r e i n r e d u c i n g t h e v a r i a n c e o f t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s . The a s s e t s o f c o r p o r a t i o n s a re not p a r t i c u l a r l y s u i t e d t o e x p l a i n i n g the v a r i a t i o n between f i r m s ' use o f m a n u f a c t u r i n g s i t e s — o t h e r v a r i a b l e s o f f e r g r e a t e r e x p l a n a t i o n . But a s s e t s 60 do account f o r much of t h e r e s i d u a l v a r i a t i o n i n t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s a f t e r t h e s e e x p l a n a t i o n s have been i n c l u d e d . T h i s h y p o t h e s i s must be c o n f i r m e d w i t h g r e a t e r c o n f i d e n c e t h a n t h e assessments o f most p r e c e d i n g h y p o t h e s e s . S c a l e o f P l a n t A v e r y crude measure o f t h e s i z e o f t h e e n t e r p r i s e on a s i t e i s t h e number o f employees i n v o l v e d . The l a r g e r t h e employment t h e l a r g e r t h e s c a l e o f o p e r a t i o n s . T h i s measure i s not thought t o have much v a l u e f o r i n t e r - i n d u s t r y c o m p a r i s o n s , but s h o u l d be q u i t e good f o r s i m i l a r t y p e s o f m a n u f a c t u r i n g . As d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r i n t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f h y p o t h e s e s , t h i s v a r i a b l e i s i n t r o d u c e d as a check o r c o n t r o l used t o ensure t h a t i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f a s s e t s d i d t r e a t a s s e t s o f f i r m s as d i s t i n c t from t h e s c a l e o f p a r t i c u l a r s i t e o p e r a t i o n s . S i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n r e v e a l s a v a r y i n g i n f l u e n c e o f s c a l e o f p l a n t on t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s , depending on t h e p a r t i c u l a r 2 p o p u l a t i o n concerned ( T a b l e s I - IV i n d i c a t e t h a t s i m p l e r v a r y from 0.00 t o 0.51). S i m i l a r l y , s t e p - w i s e r e g r e s s i o n i n d i c a t e s t h a t s c a l e of p l a n t i s i n c o n s i s t e n t i n o f f e r i n g s i g n i f i c a n t e x p l a n a t i o n i n c o m p o s i t e a t t e m p t s t o account f o r t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s . As a check or c o n t r o l on t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e s i z e o f f i r m f a c t o r , p l a n t s c a l e does not remove a s s e t s from s i g n i f i c a n c e i n e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a t i o n among th e t o t a l number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s . 61 I n f a c t , i t i s o n l y i n t h e two p o p u l a t i o n s s o r t e d f o r e x p a n s i o n p l a n s , t h a t employment succeeds i n u s u r p i n g the p o s i t i o n o f a s s e t s as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e . I n most p o p u l a t i o n s , i f employment i s e n t e r e d as s i g n i f i c a n t , f i r m s ' a s s e t s a r e a l s o i n c l u d e d . ~ T h e p r e c e d i n g d i s c u s s i o n o f the i n f l u e n c e o f s c a l e o f p l a n t i s not p r e s e n t e d i n an attempt t o deny i t s power as an 2 e x p l a n a t o r y , o r p r e d i c t i v e , v a r i a b l e . W i t h r r a n g i n g up t o 0.51 i n one s i m p l e model, t h e i n f l u e n c e o f p l a n t s c a l e must be s u p p o r t e d . What t h e a n a l y s i s has shown i s t h a t c o n f i r m a t i o n o f a s s e t s as an i m p o r t a n t e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e does i n d e e d c o n f i r m i t s own e x p l a n a t o r y power, and not m e r e l y some h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h a n o t h e r v a r i a b l e . S i z e o f S i t e T h i s v a r i a b l e e n t a i l s t h e most d i f f i c u l t p r o b lem i n d i s c u s s i o n o f i t s e x p l a n a t o r y powers. Can t h e s i z e o f s i t e be t hought t o e x p l a i n i n t h e c a u s e / e f f e c t sense t h a t u n d e r l i e s r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s ? There i s no s u p p o r t f o r a c a u s e / e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t i s not r e a d i l y c h a l l e n g e d . Perhaps t h i s p r o b l e m w i l l appear i n b e t t e r l i g h t i f an a n a l o g y i s employed. A v e r y s i m p l e r e l a t i o n s h i p i s commonly employed t o e x p l a i n r e g r e s s i o n i n i n t r o d u c t o r y s t a t i s t i c s t e x t s . H e i g h t i s thought t o be h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h w e i g h t . R e g r e s s i o n o f a p o p u l a t i o n sample shows t h i s t o be c o r r e c t , and 62 p r e d i c t i o n o f w e i g h t g i v e n a p e r s o n ' s h e i g h t i s p o s s i b l e i f one d e t e r m i n e s a b e s t - f i t l i n e t o t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n . But can we i g h t be thought o f as caused by h e i g h t ? Presumable w e i g h t i s a f u n c t i o n o f h e r e d i t y , d i e t and o t h e r p h y s i o l o g i c a l c o n s t r a i n t s . We have no r e a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r assuming a c a u s e / e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p between h e i g h t and w e i g h t . But f o r p r e d i c t i o n ( e s t i m a t i o n ) o f w e i g h t , h e i g h t i s found t o be a u s e f u l e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e . Viewed i n a r a t h e r s i m p l i s t i c l i g h t , w e i g h t can be d e s c r i b e d as a p r o d u c t o f t h e h e i g h t and b r e a d t h o f a p e r s o n ' s body. W h i l e h e i g h t does not cause w e i g h t , i t does appear t o e s t a b l i s h c e r t a i n c o n f i d e n c e l i m i t s f o r w e i g h t . I t i s p h y s i o l o g i c a l l y i m p o s s i b l e f o r a s i x f o o t i n d i v i d u a l t o weigh 20 pounds, j u s t as i t i s i m p o s s i b l e f o r a p e r s o n o f 26 i n c h e s t o weigh 200 pounds. T h i s d i s c u s s i o n i s analogous t o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between s i z e o f s i t e and t h e amount  o f l a n d unused. S i t e s i z e does not cause an amount o f l a n d t o be unused but m e r e l y a l l o w s i t . A 100 a c r e s i t e i s r e q u i r e d i n o r d e r t o have 100 a c r e s o f unused l a n d . A v e r y s m a l l s i t e , even i f u n o c c u p i e d , w i l l have o n l y a s m a l l amount o f l a n d unused. The amount o f l a n d unused i s a p r o d u c t o f s i t e s i z e and t h e p e r cent o f s i t e unused. Presumably (and a s s e r t e d by t h i s t h e s i s ) unused l a n d i s a p r o d u c t o f s e v e r a l i n f l u e n c e s t h a t can j u s t i f i a b l y be c o n s i d e r e d as c a u s e s . I n t h e i n t e r e s t s o f p r e d i c t i o n , however, s i t e s i z e as an e a s i l y measured v a r i a b l e a l l o w s r e a s o n a b l y 63 c o n f i d e n t e s t i m a t e s o f t h e amount o f l a n d unused and o f s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y . S i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n i l l u s t r a t e s t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f s i t e s i z e i n e s t i m a t i n g amount o f l a n d unused ( F i g u r e 4) and s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y ( F i g u r e 6 ) . S i z e o f s i t e i s h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h s e v e r a l h y p o t h e s i z e d i n dependent v a r i a b l e s as i s i n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e V I . TABLE VI CORRELATION OF DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES WITH SITE SIZE (LOG) (TOTAL POPULATION) r v a l u e employment ( l o g ) 0 . 6 0 y e a r s . . . . . 0 . 1 3 e x p a n s i o n p l a n s . - 0 . 0 1 . o n - s i t e e x p a n s i o n p l a n s 0 . 1 0 t i m e from CBD 0 . 5 0 d i s t a n c e from CBD 0 . 4 6 v a l u e p e r a c r e ( l o g ) 0 . 7 0 a s s e t s ( l o g ) 0 . 5 7 p e r cent o f s i t e unused 0 . 5 1 amount o f l a n d unused ( l o g ) . . . 0 . 8 8 s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y ( l o g ) - 0 . 7 4 T h i s c o r r e l a t i o n between s i t e s i z e and t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d i n dependent v a r i a b l e s o f t e n r e s u l t s i n t h e l a c k o f s i g n i f i c a n c e o f s e v e r a l when s i t e s i z e i s a l l o w e d t o e n t e r a m u l t i p l e p r e d i c t i o n , but i t a l s o r e s u l t s i n i n c l u s i o n o f some where they had not p r e v i o u s l y been s i g n i f i c a n t . I n r e f e r e n c e t o t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r example ( T a b l e I ) , i n c l u s i o n o f s i t e s i z e e x c l u d e s v a l u e p e r a c r e but i n t r o d u c e s employment as a s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e i n p r e d i c t i n g p e r cent o f s i t e unused. I n a l l p o p u l a t i o n s , and f o r each dependent v a r i a b l e examined, s i t e s i z e i n c r e a s e s t h e l e v e l o f p r e d i c t i o n , r e d u c e s Sy, and a d j u s t s t h e s e l e c t i o n o f p r e d i c t i v e v a r i a b l e s . S i t e s i z e must be c h a l l e n g e d as a c a u s a l d e t e r m i n a n t o f t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s . I t c a n n o t , however, be d i s c o u n t e d as s i m p l y an i n t e r e s t i n g but s p u r i o u s c o r r e l a t i o n . The power o f s i t e s i z e can o n l y be r e g a r d e d as p e r m i s s i v e i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r t h e use o f i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s . Perhaps t h e c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h i s v a r i a b l e and t h e dependent v a r i a b l e s may be i m p o r t a n t i n p o l i c y m a t t e r s . I f s u b d i v i s i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s can be c o n t r o l l e d , t h e i n t e n s i t y o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d use e x p e c t e d t o come about can be changed a t w i l l . Summary o f A n a l y s i s Two p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e s were f o l l o w e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s , f i r s t t h e development o f p r e d i c t i v e models o f m a n u f a c t u r e r s ' s i t e use i n t e n s i t y , and second, t h e t e s t i n g o f s i x s p e c i f i c h y p o t h e s e s . Each i s summarized i n t u r n . The development o f p r e d i c t i v e models must be j u d g e d a 65 p a r t i a l s u c c e s s . A f i v e - v a r i a b l e e x p l a n a t i o n t h a t o n l y a c h i e v e s 32 p e r cent r e d u c t i o n i n v a r i a n c e o f p e r cent o f s i t e unused i s o f no c o n c e i v a b l e use or v a l u e . Even when the 2 n o n - c a u s a l s i t e s i z e e n t e r s t h e p r e d i c t i o n , t h e r remains v e r y low at 36 p e r c e n t . Much.more s u c c e s s f u l p r e d i c t i o n has been a c h i e v e d f o r s t r u c t u r a l d e n s i t y and amount o f l a n d unused (53 p e r cent and 63 p e r cent r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . When s i t e s i z e e n t e r s t h e p r e d i c t i o n the models can be j u d g e d as s u c c e s s f u l f o r b o t h (72 p e r cent and 79 p e r cent r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . Even s o , i t would appear from t h i s v a r y i n g s u c c e s s t h a t we have got t o o n l y a l i m i t e d p o r t i o n o f t h e essence o f s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . T e s t i n g o f t h e s i x h y p o t h e s e s i s based p r i m a r i l y on t h e m u l t i p l e models d i s c u s s e d above. D i s t a n c e i s found t o be s i g n i f i c a n t when jud g e d a l o n e but much o f i t s e x p l a n a t o r y power i s assumed by o t h e r v a r i a b l e s i n more complex models. The h y p o t h e s i s i s not c o n f i r m e d , but i t has not been s u f f i c i e n t l y c h a l l e n g e d t o suggest a n u l l h y p o t h e s i s . The c o s t of l a n d i s found t o be t h e most p o w e r f u l v a r i a b l e a s s o c i a t e d c a u s a l l y w i t h t h e i n t e n s i t y o f l a n d use. F u t u r e growth p r o s p e c t s , a l t h o u g h not found i n s i g n i f i c a n t , o f f e r l i t t l e e x p l a n a t i o n o f e x c e s s s i t e h o l d i n g s ; t h e h y p o t h e s i s l i n k i n g growth e x p e c t a t i o n s t o s i t e use i s w e a k l y c o n f i r m e d . Time s i n c e i n i t i a l s i t e o c c u p a t i o n i s the weakest o f t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s when j u d g e d b o t h i n d i v i d u a l l y and i n combined e x p l a n a t i o n s . The h y p o t h e s i s r e l a t i n g t h i s v a r i a b l e t o s i t e use must be r e c o g n i z e d as u n c o n f i r m e d . S i z e 66 of firm, as measured by assets, i s the second most powerful causal predictor. Consideration of the firms' sizes offers a large contribution to several combined explanations of s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . The scale of plant, as measured by employment, receives moderate confirmation, as i t contributed a great deal i n simple explanation and also entered several combined explanations. It i s possible to assess the r e s u l t s of analysis i n a somewhat d i f f e r e n t fashion as i s attempted i n the concluding section of t h i s work, but i n terms of the primary objectives of the study, that of p r e d i c t i o n and hypothesis t e s t i n g , the r e s u l t s of analysis are complete. CHAPTER V I I SCEPTICISM, CLAIMS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE STUDY I n j e c t i n g S c e p t i c i s m toward C o n c l u s i o n s The r e s u l t s o f a n a l y s i s a l r e a d y d i s c u s s e d must be tempered by s e v e r a l o b v i o u s weaknesses i n t h e s t u d y as a whole. D i s c u s s i o n of t h e weaknesses l o g i c a l l y p r e c e d e s c o n c l u s i o n on t h e a n a l y s i s — f o r i t t h e n f o c u s e s s u f f i c i e n t s c e p t i c i s m upon t h e v a l i d i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h o s e c o n c l u s i o n s . I t a l s o s e t s t h e s t a g e f o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . S u f f i c i e n t s c e p t i c i s m may be d e v e l o p e d by a b r i e f i s t a t e m e n t : t h i s s t u d y has employed v e r y poor d a t a t o i m p r o p e r l y r e p r e s e n t h y p o t h e s i z e d v a r i a b l e s i n a l i m i t e d and perhaps s p e c i a l c a s e , w i t h t i m e and i n t e r c i t y v a r i a t i o n s i g n o r e d . I t cannot be supposed t h a t any c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e has been p r e s e n t e d . Very c l o s e s c r u t i n y o f o r i g i n a l d a t a c o l l e c t i o n p r o c e d u r e s r a i s e s doubts as t o t h e i r r e l i a b i l i t y i n a n a l y s i s ; f o r example, when two p l a n t s o c c u p i e d t h e same p r o p e r t y , t h e s p l i t f o r s i t e s i z e was s u b j e c t i v e i n s e v e r a l c a s e s . A l s o , t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e v a r i a b l e s employed t o r e f l e c t t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d v a r i a b l e s may be 68 e a s i l y q u e s t i o n e d . Employment o v e r a wide range o f i n d u s t r i e s cannot be c o n s i d e r e d a v e r y c l o s e r e f l e c t i o n o f p l a n t s c a l e . Nor can f i r m s * e x p a n s i o n p l a n s ( g a t h e r e d f o r f i v e y e a r s ) a c c u r a t e l y r e f l e c t t h e h y p o t h e s i z e d growth p l a n s a t time o f i n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t . S i m i l a r s t a t e m e n t s can be made f o r o t h e r hypotheses and r e l a t e d 'measures. I n a d d i t i o n , changes i n i n d i v i d u a l s i t e uses were not measured t h r o u g h t i m e . C o n s i d e r a t i o n s o f c a u s a l i t y so b a s i c . i n r e g r e s s i o n cannot be c o n s i d e r e d , i n t h i s c a s e , t o be s u f f i c i e n t l y i n v e s t i g a t e d w i t h o u t c o g n i z a n c e o f p r o c e s s e s t h r o u g h t i m e . A f i n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h a t i n t r o d u c e s f u r t h e r s c e p t i c i s m i s the p o s s i b i l i t y , i n d e e d t h e l i k e l i h o o d , o f Vancouver d e v i a t i n g from t h e Canadian norm i n r e g a r d s t o c o s t and r e s e r v e s o f , and p r e s s u r e s on,- the use o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d , I t i s hoped t h a t s u f f i c i e n t s c e p t i c i s m has been i n t r o d u c e d t o p r e p a r e the r e a d e r f o r what must be r e g a r d e d as o v e r s t a t e m e n t i n t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n c l u s i o n s on t h e a n a l y s i s . A C h a l l e n g e and an A d d i t i o n t o Theory Perhaps f o r purposes o f d i s c u s s i o n t h e c o n c e p t s p r e v i o u s l y g l e a n e d from the l i t e r a t u r e on i n d u s t r i a l l a n d use may be e l e v a t e d t o the word t h e o r y . As p r e v i o u s l y m e n t i o n e d , t h i s t h e o r y tends t o t a k e t h e form o f e x p r e s s e d b e l i e f r a t h e r t h a n o f w e l l d e v e l o p e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s f i r m l y based upon e m p i r i c a l 69 r e s e a r c h . T e s t i n g o f h y p o t h e s e s has p r o v i d e d a s e r i o u s c h a l l e n g e t o t h e t h e o r y r e l a t i n g t o i n t e n s i t y o f s i t e use by m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y . A l t h o u g h a n a l y s i s has shown l i t t l e e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e c o n v e r s e o f a c c e p t e d t h e o r y h o l d s , i t has shown t h a t commonly a c c e p t e d f o r c e s do not account f o r much of t h e v a r i a t i o n i n i n d u s t r i a l l a n d use. A n a l y s i s r a t h e r f o r c e f u l l y i n d i c a t e s t h a t e x p a n s i o n p l a n s account f o r l i t t l e o f s i t e h o l d i n g s i n e x c e s s o f p r e s e n t needs. I n t h e p r e c e d i n g p a r a g r a p h t h e major i n a d e q u a c i e s o f t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n c l u d i n g r e l i a b i l i t y o f d a t a and t h e v a l i d i t y o f i t s employment were p r e s e n t e d . Inadequate though i t i s , t h i s s t u d y d i d not f a v o r one p a r t i c u l a r a t t i t u d e o r h y p o t h e s i s i n i t s i n a d e q u a c i e s . The e x p l a n a t i o n s r e v e a l e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , e x c e p t t h e i n f l u e n c e o f l a n d c o s t s , o f f e r o n l y v e r y low l e v e l s o f e x p l a n a t i o n , and t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e s i n r e a l i t y must be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f more th a n l a n d c o s t s . D e s t r u c t i o n o f some commonly a c c e p t e d i d e a s i s not n e a r l y so r e w a r d i n g as t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f a new e x p l a n a t i o n . A s s e t s o f c o r p o r a t i o n s , as a measure o f f i r m s i z e , a c c o u n t s f o r much v a r i a t i o n i n i n t e n s i t y when added t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n p r o v i d e d by o t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s . S u f f i c i e n t e v i d e n c e has been found t o c o n f i r m the i m p o r t a n c e o f t h i s p r e v i o u s l y n e g l e c t e d v a r i a b l e as an e x p l a n a t i o n o f s i t e use i n t e n s i t y . 70 I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r F u t u r e R e s e a r c h T h i s study o f f e r s no c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n v e s t i g a t e d . At b e s t i t o f f e r s o n l y an a n a l y s i s o f one s l i c e o f time a t one p l a c e . To seek out g e n e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s and t h e p r o c e s s e s d e t e r m i n i n g them, one must stu d y s i t e uses as they change t h r o u g h t i m e and i n s e v e r a l c i t i e s . D ata of g r e a t e r r e l i a b i l i t y must be c o l l e c t e d and must more a c c u r a t e l y r e f l e c t t h e v a r i a b l e s h y p o t h e s i z e d . S i t e use i n t e n s i t y s h o u l d be measured d i r e c t l y , r a t h e r t h a n r e p r e s e n t e d as t h e t h r e e r a t h e r crude measures employed i n t h i s s t u d y . The r a t h e r p o w e r f u l e s t i m a t o r o f i n t e n s i t y — s i t e s i z e — appears t o o f f e r g r e a t p r o m i s e i f i t i s more f u l l y i n v e s t i g a t e d ^ . Because of t h i s c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p , t h e s t u d y o f f a c t o r s d e t e r m i n i n g s i t e s i z e may l e a d t o new i n s i g h t s i n t o the i n t e n s i t y o f l a n d use. A n a l y s i s o f more complete i n f o r m a t i o n need not be so r e s t r i c t e d . F a c t o r a n a l y s i s o f f e r s g r e a t rewards i n d e t e r m i n i n g f i n e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n m u l t i f a c t o r s i t u a t i o n s i f one has d a t a o f s u f f i c i e n t q u a l i t y t o w a r r a n t i t . 71 BIBLIOGRAPHY BOOKS A l o n s o , W i l l i a m . L o c a t i o n and Land Use: Toward a G e n e r a l  Theory o f Land Rent. Cambridge: H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1964. Canadian Trade Index 1958-1960. T o r o n t o : Canadian M a n u f a c t u r e r s . A s s o c i a t i o n . C lawson, M a r i o n . Land Economics R e s e a r c h . ed. J o s e p h Ackerman, M a r i o n Clawson and M a r s h a l l H a r r i s . Washington: Resources f o r t h e F u t u r e ; d i s t r i b u t e d by Johns Hopkins P r e s s , B a l t i m o r e , 1965. and S t e w a r t , C h a r l e s . Land Use I n f o r m a t i o n . Washington: Resources f o r the F u t u r e ; d i s t r i b u t e d by Johns Hopkins P r e s s , B a l t i m o r e , 1965. Dynamics o f I n d u s t r i a l Land S e t t l e m e n t . New W e s t m i n s t e r , Lower M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d , 1961. G a l b r a i t h , J . K. The New I n d u s t r i a l S t a t e . B o s t o n : Houghton M i f f l i n , 196"7\ Gandre, Donald. Land Use Changes i n t h e Milwaukee P o r t A r e a  1920-1963• Ann A r b o r , M i c h . : U n i v e r s i t y M i c r o f i l m s . Ph.D. T h e s i s i n Geography, U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n , 1967-Gottman, J e a n and H a r p e r , R. A., eds.' M e t r o p o l i s on t h e Move: Geographers Look a t Urban S p r a w l . (New York: W i l e y , 1967. M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y i n t h e Lower M a i n l a n d of B. C. New W e s t m i n s t e r , Lower M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d , i 9 6 0 . M a r s h a l l , A l f r e d . P r i n c i p l e s o f Economics. 7 th ed. London: M a c M i l l a n , 1916. Moody's I n d u s t r i a l Manual - American and F o r e i g n . New York: Robert H. Messner, I960. 72 Muncy, Dorothy A. Space f o r I n d u s t r y ; an A n a l y s i s o f S i t e and L o c a t i o n Requirements f o r Modern M a n u f a c t u r e . Washington, D.C.: Urban Land I n s t i t u t e , 1954; T e c h n i c a l B u l l e t i n No. 23 Solzman, D a v i d M. Waterway I n d u s t r i a l S i t e s : A Chicag o Case  Study. C h i c a g o : U n i v e r s i t y o f Chicago P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 ; Department o f Geography R e s e a r c h Paper No. 107 . Thompson, W i l b u r R. A P r e f a c e t o Urban Economics. B a l t i m o r e : Johns Hopkins P r e s s , 1965 . ' ,..-. " •• ARTICLES A l o n s o , W i l l i a m . "A Theory of the Urban Land Market." Papers  and P r o c e e d i n g s o f th e R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n VI (I960) 149-157. Garner, B. J . "Models o f Urban Geography and S e t t l e m e n t L o c a t i o n . " I n C h o r l e y , R. J . and H a g g e t t , P e t e r , eds. Models 'in  Geography. London: Methuen, 1967. pp. 303-360. H e n s h a l l , J . D. "Models o f A g r i c u l t u r a l A c t i v i t y . " I n C h o r l e y , ' R. J . and H a g g e t t , P e t e r , eds. Models in.;Geography. London: Methuen, 1967. pp. 425-460. • ' L e i g h , Roger. " A n a l y s i s o f F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g t h e L o c a t i o n o f I n d u s t r y W i t h i n C i t i e s . " Canadian Geographer X I I I ( S p r i n g 1969) 28-33. Logan, M. I . " L o c a t i o n a l B e h a v i o r o f M a n u f a c t u r i n g F i r m s i n Urban A r e a s . " Annals o f the A s s o c i a t i o n o f American Geographers LVl"! 3 (1966) 451-456. M c M i l l a n , T. E. J r . "Why M a n u f a c t u r e r s Choose P l a n t L o c a t i o n s v s . D e t e r m i n a n t s o f P l a n t L o c a t i o n s . " . Land Economics• XLI (1965) 239-246. ' . Muncy, Dorothy. A. "Land for. I n d u s t r y - A N e g l e c t e d Problem." ,In Mayer, Harold and. Kohn, C. F. - Readings i n Urban . Geography." Chicago: University•of Chicago Press, 1959-APPENDIX: 73 A F o u r t h Source o f Support f o r t h e H y p o t h e s i s : L a r g e r C o r p o r a t i o n s Tend t o Have G r e a t e r S i t e P o r t i o n s Unused 

Cite

Citation Scheme:

        

Citations by CSL (citeproc-js)

Usage Statistics

Share

Embed

Customize your widget with the following options, then copy and paste the code below into the HTML of your page to embed this item in your website.
                        
                            <div id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidgetDisplay">
                            <script id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidget"
                            src="{[{embed.src}]}"
                            data-item="{[{embed.item}]}"
                            data-collection="{[{embed.collection}]}"
                            data-metadata="{[{embed.showMetadata}]}"
                            data-width="{[{embed.width}]}"
                            data-media="{[{embed.selectedMedia}]}"
                            async >
                            </script>
                            </div>
                        
                    
IIIF logo Our image viewer uses the IIIF 2.0 standard. To load this item in other compatible viewers, use this url:
https://iiif.library.ubc.ca/presentation/dsp.831.1-0104143/manifest

Comment

Related Items