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Commodity trade flows of British Columbia, 1961-1964 Peters, Joerg Ernst 1969

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i . COMMODITY TRADE FLOWS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1961 - 1964 by JOERG ERNST PETERS B.A., University of Brit i s h Columbia, 1965 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the Department of Economics We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA July 1969 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o lumbia, I agree t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u rposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would l i k e to thank the Private Planning Association of Canada for their financial assistance which enabled me to complete a substantial part of this thesis in the summer of 1965* I owe a debt to Miss Lois Wright who helped me with boundless energy to type and retype the numerous tables and appendixes. Most of a l l , however, I would l i k e to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. Ronald A. Shearer for his invaluable assistance, his patience, and his warm humor. ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis was to estimate the commodity trade flows of Br i t i s h Columbia with a l l foreign countries and with the Rest of Canada. The general problems in the estimation of regional trade flows, the available literature on the subject, as well as two prior studies of Br i t i s h Columbia's commodity trade are discussed b r i e f l y . Exports and imports are estimated separately and are analyzed by commodity groups. The estimates of exports are calculated with the help of the available production and shipments st a t i s t i c s and the data on railway freight t r a f f i c . Because of the nature of British Columbia's exports i t was frequently feasible to employ the national customs ports data i n the estimation of trade flows to foreign countries. It was found that the provincial customs ports data underestimate the magnitude of exports, especially exports;.to the united States. As a result of the uniquness of many of the important commodities which are exported from British Columbia, the magnitude of exports could be determined with a relatively high degree of accuracy. Estimates of exports to the Rest of Canada have been based on the transport stat i s t i c s or have been calculated as residual by subtracting from the shipment data an estimate of foreign exports as well as an estimate of the provincial disappearance. i v . The Estimates of commodity imports have been based primarily on estimates of consumption within the Province. The estimates of foreign imports depend mainly on the accuracy of the provincial customs ports data, although in some cases an estimate of trans-shipment through British Columbia to other parts of Canada has been made. Commodity imports from the Rest of Canada have again been estimated as a residual. In this case an estimate of foreign imports minus foreign exports and an estimate of production has been subtracted from the estimates of consumption. The possible sources of bias resulting from errors in the data or from invalid assumptions are taken into consideration. The estimates are summarized i n the text. A l l details of the calculations have been put into the Appendio:es. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TITLE PAGE.- i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i i ABSTRACT i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF TABLES v i i Chapter I. INTRODUCTION 1 Prior Estimates of Commodity Trade Flows 3 II. SOURCES OF DATA AND METHODS OF ESTIMATION 8 The Nature of the Problem 8 The Case of British Columbia: Available Data 10 Customs Ports Data 10 Transport Statistics 10 Production and Shipment Statistics 13 Estimating Techniques: Exports 15 Estimating Techniques: Imports 17 The General Method 18 III. THE ESTIMATES SUMMARIZED 2$ IV. THE ACCURACY OF THE ESTIMATES 37 Conclusions 42 Appendix I. EXPORTS OF FOREST PRODUCTS v i . Appendix Page II. EXPORTS OF MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS 09 III. EXPORTS OF MISCELLANEOUS PRODUCTS 122 IV. COMMODITY IMPORTS ... 150 V. MISCELLANEOUS ESTIMATES 197 BIBLIOGRAPHY 223 v i i . LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1. Total Exports of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 26. 2. Total Exports of British Columbia, 196l - 1964, By Major Commodity Groups 27. 3. B r i t i s h Columbia Exports of Forest Products, 1961 -1964, By Major Market Areas 28. 4. B r i t i s h Columbia Exports of Minerals and Mineral Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 29. 5. Bri t i s h Columbia Exports of Fish Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 30. 6. Bri t i s h Columbia Exports of Agricultural Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 31. 7. Bri t i s h Columbia Exports of Miscellaneous Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 32. 8. Total Commodity Imports to Bri t i s h Columbia from Canada and the Rest of the World, I96I - 1963 35. 9. Species of Lumber Identifiable as Bri t i s h Columbia Products 47. v i i i . TABLE PAGE 10. Production, Exports and Domestic Disappearance of B.C. Lumber by Species, 1961, (Volume and Value) 50. 11. Exports of Lumber to the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1964, (Volume and Value) 54. 12. Bri t i s h Columbia Exports of Lumber, I96I - 1964, By Major Market Areas 55. 13. Basic Paper and Paperboard - Exports to the Rest of Canada, I96I - 1964 57. 14. British Columbia Exports of Newsprint and Basic Paper Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 58. 15. British Columbia Exports of Pulpwood and Chips, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 60. 16. Shakes and Shingles - Exports to the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1964 (Volume and Value) 62. 17. British Columbia Exports of Shakes and Shingles, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 63. 18. Plywood and Veneer - Exports to the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1964 66. 19. Bri t i s h Columbia Exports of Plywood and Veneer, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 67. ix. TABLE PAGE 20. Woodpulp - Exports to the United States and to the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1964 69. 21. British Columbia and Alberta Surplus of Woodpulp, 1961 - 1964 (Volume) 70. 22. Woodpulp - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Additional Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964 (Volume) ... 71. 23. Rail Shipments of Woodpulp, 1961 - 1964, (Volume) .... 72. 24. British Columbia Exports of Woodpulp, 1961 - 1964, / . . . . . By Major Market Areas 73* 25. B r i t i s h Columbia Exports of Logs, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 75* 26. British Columbia Exports of Miscellaneous Food Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 76. 27. Lead and Zinc - Distribution of Shipments, 1961 - 1964 (In per cent) 82. 28. Lead and Zinc Exports, 196l - 1964 83. 29. British Columbia Exports of Lead and Zinc, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 84. X. TABLE PAGE 30. British Columbia Exports of Copper & Copper Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 86. 31. British Columbia Exports of Nickel, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 88. 32. Pig Iron - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Additional Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964 (Volume) ... 90. 33. Pig Iron - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Additional Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964 91. 34. Bri t i s h Columbia Exports of Iron and Iron Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 92. 35. British Columbia Exports of Metals Which Are Exported Only to the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1964 94. 36. British Columbia Exports of Silver, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 96. 37. Cadmium - Canadian Production, Exports and Domestic Disappearance, 1962 - 1964 (Value and per cent) 98. 38. Exports of Cadmium, I96I - 1964 99. 39. British Columbia Exports of Cadmium, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 100. x i . TABLE PAGE 40. B r i t i s h Columbia Exports of Sulphur, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 102. 41. Asbestos - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Additional Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964 (Volume).... 104. 42. Asbestos - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Additional Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964 105. 43. British Columbia Exports of Asbestos, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 106, 44. Aluminum - Exports to the Rest of Canada, 196l - 1964, (Volume and Value) 108. 45. British Columbia Exports of Aluminum and Aluminum Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 109. 46. Gypsum - Exports to the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1964, (Volume) 111. 47. Gypsum - Exports to the Rest of Canada and to the United States, 1961 - 1964 112. 48. British Columbia Exports of Gypsum, I96I - 1964, By Major Market Areas 113* 49. Crude O i l - Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964, (Volume and Value) 115. x i i . TABLE PAGE 50. Natural Gas - Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964 (Volume and Value) 116. 51. British Columbia Exports of Coal, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 117. 52. British Columbia Exports of Crude O i l , Natural Gas and Electric Energy to the United States, 1961 - 1964 .... 118. 53. Calculation of Adjustment Factor for the Exports of Miscellaneous Fish Products, 1964 124. 54. Adjustment of Exports of Miscellaneous Fish Products, 1964 125. 55 • Fish Products - Exports to the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1964 126. 56. British Columbia Exports of Salmon, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 127. 57. B r i t i s h Columbia Exports of Halibut, I96I - 1964, By Major Market Areas 128.. 58. British Columbia Exports of Herring Meal and O i l , 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 129. 59. B r i t i s h Columbia Exports of Other Fish & Fish Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 130. x i i i . TABLE PAGE 60. Apples - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Additional Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964 (-Volume) ... 133. 61. Apples - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Exports to the United States, 196l - 1964 134. 62. Pears - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Additional Exports to the United States, I96I - 1964 (Volume) ... 135. 63. Pears - Exports to the Rest of Canada and Additional Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964 I36. 64. British Columbia Exports of Apples, 196l - 1964, By Major Market Areas 137. 65. Cattle - Exports to the United States, 1961 - 1964, (Volume and Value) 138.. 66. Cattle - Exports to the Rest of Canada, I96I - 1964, (Volume and Value) 139. 67. British Columbia Exports of Live Animals, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 140. 68. British Columbia Exports of Other Fruit: Fresh and Frozen, I96I - 1964, By Major Market Areas 141. 69. British Columbia Exports of Meat, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas -*»- 142. xiv. TABLE PAGE 70. British Columbia Exports of Other Agricultural Products, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 143. 71. B r i t i s h Columbia Exports of Food, Feed, Beverages, and Tobacco, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 145. 72. British Columbia Exports of Fabricated Materials, Inedible, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 146. 73« British Columbia Exports of Endproducts, Inedible, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 147. 74. British Columbia Exports of Crude Materials, Inedible, 1961 - 1964, By Major Market Areas 148. 75« British Columbia Retail Sales by Commodity Classes, 1961 - 1963 153. 76. Department Store Mark Ups for Consumer Goods of Canadian, American, and Foreign Origin 155* 77» Women's and Children's Clothing - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1963 161. 78. Men's and Boys' Clothing - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - I963 162. 79. Footwear - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1963 I63. XV. TABLE PAGE 80. Household Appliances - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - I963 164. 81. Furniture, Radio and Television, Musical Instruments and Records - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1963 165. 82. Piece Goods, Bedding and House Linens, Drapery, Upholstery and Curtains - Imports from the Rest of Canada, I96I - 1963 166. 83. Other Retail Goods - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1963 167. 84. Production of Food Products i n British Columbia, 1961. 171. 85. Food Products - Imports from Abroad and Imports from the Rest of Canada, 196l - I963 172. 86. Imports of Fresh Fruit and Vegetables, 1961 - I963 ... 173* 87. Alcoholic Beverages - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1963 175. 88. Passenger Cars - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1963 177. 89. Imports of Consumer Goods to Bri t i s h Columbia from Canada and the Rest of the World, 1961 - 1963 I78. xvi. TABLE PAGE 90. Net Absorption of B r i t i s h Columbia Production of Capital Goods, 1961 - 1963 181. 91. Capital Goods - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1963 182. 92. Imports of Construction Materials, 1961 - I963 186. 93» Iron and Steel - Imports from the Rest of Canada, 1961 - 1963 (Volume and Value) 189. 94. Inputs into the Textile Industry - Imports from the Rest of Canada, I96I - 1963 191. 95• Imports of Industrial Materials to B r i t i s h Columbia from Canada and the Rest of the World, 1961 - 1963 ... 192. 96. Calculation of Domestic Disappearance of Softwood Lumber in Canada, 1961 - 1964 (Volume) 199. 97. Plywood and Veneer - B r i t i s h Columbia Provincial Disappearance, 1961 - 1964 203. 98. Shakes and Shingles - Br i t i s h Columbia Provincial Disappearance, 1961 - 1964 (Volume) 204. 99. Exports of Nickel Through British Columbia Customs Ports 205. x v i i . TABLE PAGE 100. Production and Exports of Nickel, 1961 - 1964 206. 101. Estimated Exports of Nickel, 1961 - 1964 207. 102. Exports of Sulphur Through Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, 1961 - 1964 208. 103. Fish Products - Br i t i s h Columbia Provincial Disappearance, 1961 - 1964 209. 104. Unloadings and Imports of Selected Fruit in Bri t i s h Columbia, 1961 (Volume) 213. 105. Production of Alcoholic Beverages in Br i t i s h Columbia, 1961 - 1963 214. 106. Input Coefficients: Construction 217. 107. Population of British Columbia as a Percentage of the Canadian Population, 1961 - 1964 219. 108. Estimates of Exports of B. C. Products - 1964 220. 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The purpose of this study was to estimate the commodity trade flows of the Province of British Columbia for the years 1961 to 1964. 1 Such a measure will be of interest to anyone engaged in the study of regional economics and, more specifically, in the study of the economy of British Columbia. In general, a measure of the commodity trade flows of a region (hereafter called simply trade flows) will only be a first step in the economic analysis of a region. Yet i t is an important and a necessary step for many purposes. For example, when one is interested in a description or theory of the region's industrial development or when one is attempting to predict the effects of a change in national tariff agreements on the economy of the region. It was the latter point which gave direct impetus to this thesis. The last two decades have seen a marked tendency toward closer economic cooperation between the so-called "free" nations of the world. This tendency has been especially strong among the industrialized nations and has led, among others, to the formation of the European Economic Community (E.E.C.) and the European Free Trade Association (E.F.T.A.). Although Canada has joined neither the E.E.C. nor E.F.T.A., i t is, of course, directly affected, in the sense that the commercial policies of the E.E.C. and of the E.F.T.A. influence the growth and the 2. composition of Canada's external trade not only with those two groups of nations but also with a l l other nations which have special commercial policy agreements with the two trading blocks. As a result of these and other developments, such as the Canada - united States agreement on automobiles and the Kennedy Round of tariff reductions, the question arose whether or not an Atlantic Free Trade Area would be formed in the foreseeable future. Such a free trade area could be formed by the nations of the E.E.C., of E.F.T.A., the United States, Canada, and, at a later stage, might include Japan. If the answer to the question is yes, what would be the effects on the Canadian economy? It is clear that the answer will vary for different regions in Canada and therefore requires an economic analysis of each region. A prerequisite of such a regional analysis is not only an understanding of the economy of the region but also a knowledge of the existing trading patterns of that region with the rest of the country and with all other countries in the world. By attempting to estimate the trade flows of British Columbia to other regions in Canada and to the rest of the world, we therefore hope to make a small but important contribution to a much larger study. 2 At this point we would like to note that we have not attempted to construct a balance of payments statement for the Province of British Columbia. Such a statement may be extremely useful. However, i t is a much larger task. Given the available time and resources i t was not feasible to obtain the necessary information from the existing statistical records. In any case, i t seemed less important to our 3. immediate purpose. A balance of payments statement requires data on goods, services, income payments, and capital flows. Data on some services such as tourist expenditure are available and i t may be even possible to make a rough estimate of the value added in trans-shipping tof certain important commodities. However, data on other invisibles and data on capital flows simply do not exist on a regional basis, nor are there obvious "reasonable" bases to estimate them. Although we are aware that a complete statement of the trade of British Columbia should include the aforementioned items, we were forced to consider only that small part of the current account in the balance of payments statement which is known as the balance of trade, that is, the exports and imports of commodities. Prior Estimates of Commodity Trade Flows To our knowledge there have been two prior attempts to estimate British Columbia's trade flows. 3 Both attempts were under-taken by agencies of the Government of British Columbia. The first study formed the basis for the Government of British Columbia's submission to the Rowell-Sirois Commission. It was under-taken by the now defunct Economic Council of British Columbia. The Council endeavoured to present a comprehensive picture of British Columbia's commodity trade flows for the years 1934 to 1939. 5 The estimates of British Columbia's trade with foreign countries for the years 1934 to 1938 were based primarily on data supplied by the Vancouver and New Westminster Harbour Commission, supplemented by statistics from other government agencies and private sources. In 1939 the Dominion Bureau of Statistics began publishing separate statistics on exports and imports through British Columbia customs ports. ^ In the case of imports the Council adjusted these statistics for estimated trans-shipments. The size and composition of imports was also estimated by means of a questionnaire sent to retail stores. The resulting estimates of imports were subsequently deflated to the wholesale level. For estimates of interprovincial trade* especially with respect to the movement of agricultural goods, the Council relied on various public and private sources. On the whole i t appears that statistics on railroad freight traffic have been of major importance. Because of the limitations of the Railway Freight Traffic statistics ? (hereafter called the Railway Statistics) which will be discussed at a later point, the estimates of the Council are,probably not very reliable. This would be especially true in the case of invest-ment goods, but also of a l l other goods which do not go through the retail trade. A second estimate of commodity trade flows was prepared by the Bureau of Economics and Statistics of the Province of British Columbia. The Bureau compiles annually aggregate estimates of British Columbia's exports.^ In 1962 the Bureau produced an estimate of British Columbia's trade, both foreign and to the Rest of Canada. The estimates are considered confidential and have never been published in detail. However, some aggregate information was released by the Premier of British Columbia in a brief to the Federal-Provincial Conference in 1963.9 The accuracy of the estimates is difficult to assess since the methods of estimation are not known. We asked the Bureau to comment on the accuracy of our estimates. Regrettably the Bureau felt unable to do so. They did, however, include in their reply ^  some aggregate figures on the exports of B.C. products to foreign countries for the years 1961 to 1964. These figures are very close to our estimates of exports for the same period. 6. "*"In the case of imports estimates were made only for the years 1961 to 1963. %.A. Shearer, G.R. MunroQ and J. H. Young, Trade Liberalization  and the B r i t i s h Columbia Economy, (Toronto: University of Toronto Press for the Private Planning Association of Canada, forthcoming). 3we have ignored the small discussion of trade patterns con-tained in Submission of the Province of B r i t i s h Columbia to the Royal  Commission on Transportation, Part I, (Victoria, B.C.: 1964), pages 7-24. British Columbia, British Columbia in the Canadian Federation, (Victoria, B.C.: 1938), pages 68-?4. ^ B r i t i s h Columbia, Economic Council of Br i t i s h Columbia, The  Trade of B r i t i s h Columbia with other Canadian Provinces and with Foreign  Countries. (Victoria, B.C.: annual), 1934 - 1938. B r i t i s h Columbia, Bureau of Economics and Statistics, The Trade of  Br i t i s h Columbia with other Canadian Provinces and with Foreign  Countries, Calendar Year 1939, (Victoria, B.C.: 1940). ^British Columbia, Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through Bri t i s h Columbia  Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). Hereafter referred to as B.C.CP. 7canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Traffic, (Ottawa: annual), hereafter referred to as R.F.T. ^Usually published i n : British Columbia, Budget Speech, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 7. 9 Brief presented to the Plenary Session of the Federal Provincial Conference, Ottawa, November 25, 1963» printed as Appendix 2, Province of British Columbia, Budget Speech. (Victoria,B.C.: 1964), pages 61-67. "^Private Correspondence, letter from J.R. Meredith, Assistant Director, Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Victoria, B.C., December 7» 1967. The Bureau's estimate are shown in Table 108, page 220. 8. CHAPTER II SOURCES OF DATA AND METHODS OF ESTIMATION In this chapter we will be concerned with the general problems encountered in the estimation of trade flows of a region and, more specifically, of British Columbia. After a brief review of the type of data used, and of the common methods of regional trade flow analysis, we will describe and evaluate the sources of data available for the estimation of British Columbia's commodity exports. This will be followed by a discussion of the principal estimating techniques employed in the calculations of the commodity exports. In the second part of this chapter we will explain our methods of estimating British Columbia's commodity imports and describe briefly the data utilized in the estimation of the commodity imports. The Nature of the Problem Fundamentally, the problem of estimating regional trade flows arises because of the absence of customs barriers between regions. While data on the flow of goods between nations are automatically recorded, the resulting international trade statistics do not indicate the regional destination or origin and the analyst has to utilize other available statistics. The most obvious data are statistics on freight movements between regions. 9 . Perhaps the most common method of estimating inter-regional trade flows i s based on the analysis of waybills. Thus, in the united States, the annual Waybill Analysis-*- has been used to estimate flows of such commodities as California citrus f r u i t and Iowa farm animal products. 2 Because of the frequent use of the Waybill Analysis in the estimation of regional commodity flows we shall describe i t in greater detail. The Waybill Analysis i s based on a sample^ of waybills collected by the railroads. The sample waybills are sorted, placed into categories and are subsequently inflated to represent an estimate of the actual amount of goods which were moved by the railroads during the relevant time period. The main argument against the use of Waybill Analysis as a measure of trade flows between regions consists in the omission of goods moved by truck, ship or airplane. In certain cases movements by these methods may be substantial. In addition, the Waybill Analysis i s unreliable for goods moved only i n small quantities or shipped on a seasonal basis.'4' Another serious drawback of the Waybill Analysis i s the use of volume figures. Some bulk commodities may easily enough be converted from volume to value figures, but the problem becomes particularly per-plexing with items such as machinery and drugs.5 The Case of Br i t i s h Columbia: Available Data Customs Ports Data On the national level a historical series of data on trade flows i s collected by the External Trade Division of the Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s . 0 Data on exports and on imports are published monthly with annual summary statements and are grouped by type of commo-dity and by country of origin or destination. Although, as we w i l l note later i n the chapter, we were in fact able to make extensive use of these data i n establishing British Columbia's exports to the United States, they are i n general not useful since they do not identify the province of origin or destination of goods. On the provincial level separate st a t i s t i c s published annually l i s t exports and imports of commodities through British Columbia customs ports.7 However, even these records do not provide us with an accurate picture of B r i t i s h Columbia's commodity trade with other countries. Part of British Columbia's exports and imports are cleared at customs ports of other provinces, while some of the imports recorded in the stat i s t i c s are i n transit to other provinces. 0 For these reasons we have employed other sources in the estimation of British Columbia's exports and imports to foreign countries. For certain types of imports we have attempted to estimate the value of trans-shipments, i.e., ship-ments entering Canada, through British Columbia customs ports, but des-tined to other points i n Canada.9 Transport Statistics The most obvious alternate source of information on exports 11. and imports are the transport s t a t i s t i e s . ^ Because of the importance of these data i n the estimation of trade flows, we w i l l discuss the available transport st a t i s t i c s i n greater d e t a i l . In Canada the Board of Transport Commissioners publishes annually an analysis of railway freight t r a f f i c based on a sample of Canadian railway waybills.H This analysis provides information on the flow of freight by origin and destination of shipment. From the point of view of trade flow analysis, however, the data have two major deficiencies: the shipments are measured in physical units, (carloads and tons), and origin and destination are specified only by broad regions - Maritime, Eastern and Western. The latt e r includes a l l lines west of Port Arthur and Armstrong, Ontario. The f i r s t characteristic creates the problem of converting volume to value figures which i s particularly disconcerting for manufac-tured items. The second renders the data useless i n the analysis of British Columbia's trade flows as the Province i s only a part of the broader Western region. To confound the matter further the analysis u t i l i z e s the classification system of the Association of American Railroads and thus does not coincide with that used by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics for series such as international trade. These characteristics render the data i n their published form 12 unusable for the estimation of British Columbia's trade flows. A further analysis of railway freight t r a f f i c i s published annually by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. The Railway s t a t i s t i c s 3 ^ present total tons of freight hauled by a l l railways i n Canada. The data are arranged i n commodity groups for 12. each province in Canada as well as for groups of provinces.For each commodity group the statistics show freight originated or loaded and freight terminated or unloaded at stations in the province as well as freight received from and delivered to United States rail connections. For our purposes the data again have two deficiencies. In the first place, freight loaded and freight unloaded includes respectively exports and imports at lake and ocean ports* In the second place, the measurement of all commodities in tons presents us with the already familiar problem of converting volume into value terms. In spite of these deficiencies we were able to utilize the data to a large extent, provided a number of conditions held true. First, the commodity had to be of a reasonably homogenous nature. Second, i t had to be possible to establish a value per ton of the commodity. Third, loadings in the other three provinces comprising the Western group had to be nil or negligible. Finally, certain assumptions about the composition of net movements to the East had to be made. The first and the second conditions were necessary i f we were to establish a reasonably accurate value for the exports or imports of the commodity. The third condition enabled us to identify deliveries to the united States via border points in Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan as well as net movements to the East, as exports from British Columbia.1^ It should be emphasized that the statistics on railway freight traffic, although deficient in some ways proved an extremely useful source of information. Not only did they help us to determine the value of many exports, we were also able to use the data as a general check on 13. the plausibility of results achieved by other methods. Shipping reports and data on shipping and truck traffic may be useful as supplementary sources of information on the trade flows of a region. In the case of British Columbia* however, all international shipping is automatically recorded in the British Columbia Customs Ports data, while coast-wise shipping, i.e., shipping between British Columbia and other ports in Canada is negligible. The data on truck traffic, published annually by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics-'-0 are highly aggregated showing only total volume of freight handled. Presumably the freight consists in the main of perishable goods or goods with a high value per unit weight. The high aggregation prevented the use of the data. Because of the small size of the shipments involved we did not use the statistics on airplane freight which are published by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics.^ Production and Shipment Statistics The deficiencies of the freight statistics as a measure of trade flows "are serious* In certain cases they can be compensated for by information derived directly from the production and shipments statistics published for particular commodities by agencies of the federal and provincial governments. In some cases these data are a byproduct of provincial regulation of the industry. Dominion Bureau of Statistics Data; The Bureau publishes monthly and annual statistics on the production and shipment of some important commodities. Unfortunately, the majority of the statistics are highly aggregated from point of view of both the region and the number of commodity groups. In addition to these drawbacks, the statis t i c s on production may contain at least three different types of error. The f i r s t source of error i s introduced through insufficient 1 fi returns. Presumably the Bureau takes this into account and subse-quently inflates the data to arrive at an estimate of the true value of shipments or production. A further source.oferror arises whenever the production of a commodity proceeds through different stages, some of which occur at different plants or firms. Finally, when middlemen are involved in the export of a commodity from the Province, shipments may be reported as sold to points within Canada when, in fact, the commodity 19 has been exported. 7 In spite of these known shortcomings we had to rely in a large number of cases on the production and shipment data published by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. However, we refrained from using their data on exports in the estimation of trade flows. Provincial Sources of Data: Several agencies of the Government of British Columbia publish data on the production of cer-tain commodities and i n some cases data on exports. Some of these stati s t i c s proved to be very reliable while others showed numerous inconsistencies which we were unable to resolve. The annual Report of  the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources,^ for example, contains what appear to be accurate data on the production and, in some cases, the exports of minerals and petroleum products which we were able to 21 reconcile with other sources of information available to us. 15. Other Sources of Data; Additional information on trade flows may be found in annual reports of businesses to their shareholders. Although firms are reluctant to specify details of their operations, some very useful information has been obtained by examining some of these reports. Finally, we also interviewed officials of government agencies located in Vancouver. These interviews proved of special help in cases for which other sources of information were either contradictory or completely lacking.^ Estimating Techniques; Exports The details of estimating techniques employed vary among products and are described in the Appendices. The purpose of this section is to provide a very general discussion of the major approaches used in the estimation of commodity exports. It is convenient to think of the problem of estimating the commodity exports of British Columbia as consisting of two parts: international exports and exports to the Rest of Canada. International Exports; We began our estimation of exports with an analysis of the exports of lumber. After a number of fruitless attempts to reconcile the various data on production, shipments and exports we discovered that some species of timber are peculiar to British Columbia, i.e., they are either not grown or they are not harvested anywhere else in Canada. Among these were the most important species from a commercial point of view. 1 6 . This precedent led us to develop what may be called the uniqueness of product approach, an approach which we were able to use not only in the case of lumber, but also for other forest products, as well as for f i s h products and even for some minerals. As a result we were able to determine for a large number of commodities the precise value and volume of exports by employing data 2k contained in the national export s t a t i s t i c s . For products which are not unique to B r i t i s h Columbia but which are of a similar nature^ we employed a second approach which may be called estimation by proxy. The proxy method i s based on the proposition that the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data underestimates the exports of similar commodities by equal or approximately equal amounts. More precisely, i f i t was found from a comparison of the national with the provincial customs ports s t a t i s t i c s that the provincial customs ports st a t i s t i c s underestimated the exports of a specific commodity by x per cent, they were assumed to underestimate the exports of another commodity, similar in nature to the f i r s t one, by x per cent. The proxy method assumes implicitly that the demand conditions and the export routes are similar for both commodities. "^ ° The comparison of the Trade of Canada statistics^? with the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data for exports of commodities unique to B r i t i s h Columbia also revealed that both sources gave nearly identical information with respect to exports to the United Kingdom and other European countries. 17. We concluded that the downward bias of the Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data i s overwhelmingly the result of insufficient reporting of exports to the United States. This implies that a part of Bri t i s h Columbia's exports enters the United States through the customs ports of other provinces. To estimate the value of these exports the Railway stati s t i c s have been u t i l i z e d . ^ For some products we were unable to use either of the methods described above and had to rely on the sta t i s t i c s contained i n the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. However, the value of the products thus estimated i s small. Exports to the Rest of Canada: Basically our method of estimating exports to the Rest of Canada consisted of subtracting from the figures on production of the commodity in British Columbia our estimates of exports to foreign countries as well as an estimate of the provincial domestic disappearance.^ In other cases i t was feasible to determine the exports with the help of the Railway stat i s t i c s which indicate loadings in the other three Western provinces as well as net movements of the commodity to the East. Estimating Techniques: Imports ) The estimation of commodity exports was f a c i l i t a t e d by the fact that many of the commodities are homogenous, of low value per unit weight yet were shipped i n great quantities. Moreover, many of the commercially most important items could be identified as being unique to British Columbia. We were thus able to employ the national customs ports data and the statis t i c s on railway freight t r a f f i c and determine 1 8 . the value of British Columbia's exports to foreign countries and to the Rest of Canada with a high degree of accuracy. The estimation of commodity imports appears considerably more complicated. None of the commodities imported from abroad or from Eastern Canada i s unique to Br i t i s h Columbia and few are of a homogenous nature. As a result an entirely new approach was required. The General Method. The f i r s t step i n the analysis of commodity imports consisted in determining the value of a l l commodities which are consumed in British Columbia i n a given time period. For this purpose we divided the total number of commodities into four broad categories: consumer goods, capital goods, construction materials^and industrial materials, a l l of which had to be valued at producer's prices. The second step involved the estimation of production of these commodities i n B r i t i s h Columbia. This estimate (less exports) was subtracted from the original estimate on consumption or investment. Finally, an estimate of imports taken from the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data but adjusted for estimated trans-shipments, has been subtracted from the above results. The remainder then con-stitutes an estimate of imports from the Rest of Canada. It should be noted that, as previously i n the case of exports, imports from the Rest of Canada are calculated as a residual. This implies that the accuracy of the latter estimates depends on the accuracy of a l l other estimates employed in the estimation procedure. The details of the estimating technique are shown in the appendices. At this point we w i l l give only a very general outline of 19. the estimation procedure for each of the four commodity groups. Consumer Goods: Estimates on the value of consumer goods are based primarily on the 1961 Census of Retail Establishments31 extended to the following two years and information supplied to us from several department stores. The latter information enabled us to deflate the estimates on consumption to a purchase price basis. In addition, the information provided us with a rough check on the estimates of imports from abroad. A number of consumer goods were considered separately. These included passenger vehicles, tobacco products, fresh f r u i t and vegetables, and alcoholic beverages. Capital Goods: These refer to machinery and equipment. Unfortunately the data on capital goods expenditure^ do not distinguish between expenditure on machinery and installation or labour costs. It has been assumed that the latter are very small and that the total expenditure may be allocated to the purchase of equipment. The production of capital goods in B r i t i s h Columbia-^ i s assumed to have been used mainly in Br i t i s h Columbia. A similar assumption has been made in the case of foreign imports of machinery. They are assumed to have been terminated mainly in Br i t i s h Columbia. Construction Materials: After determining the value of construction materials consumed i n British Columbia^ we employed the coefficients of the 19^7 Canadian input-output t a b l e d to estimate f i r s t , the commodity composition of the materials used in the construction industry and second, the proportion of construction materials which 20. seemed to have originated in B r i t i s h Columbia. The residual, consisting of imports from abroad and from the Rest of Canada has been divided in the usual way. Industrial Materials: These refer to materials which are used as inputs i n the production process. With respect to foreign imports we had to rely with a few exceptions on the accuracy of the British Columbia Customs Ports data. In the case of steel we were able to estimate imports of the commodity with the help of the Railway s t a t i s t i c s . Regrettably there existed few indicators which would have helped us to estimate the imports of industrial materials from the Rest of Canada. 21. •'•U.S. Interstate Commerce Commission, Bureau of Transport Economics and Statistics, Carload Waybill Analyses, State to State  Distribution of Tonnage by Commodity Groups, (Washington, D.C: quarterly). ^Walter Isard, Methods of Regional Analysis: An Introduction  to Regional Science, (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., I960), pages 126-144, 163-168. ^Usually a one per cent sample. kji, Tynes Smith, "Technical Aspects of Transportation Flow Data", Journal of the American S t a t i s t i c a l Association, (Vol. XVIX, June 195*01 pages 227-239. ^These and other d i f f i c u l t i e s are discussed by Edward L. Ullmann, "Transport Geography", in American Geography: Inventory and  Prospect, Preston E. James and Clarence E. Jones (eds.), (Syracuse, N.Y.: Syracuse University Press, 1954), pages 317-324. ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, (Ottawa: monthly. Canada, D.B.S., Imports by Commodities, (Ottawa: monthly). 7B.C.C.P. ^Only for a few products may i t be assumed that their c \ - , • magnitude i s recorded accurately i n the British Columbia Customs Ports data. They consist of bulk commodities with a low per unit value and of British Columbia origin which are exported to Great Britain, the countries of the European Economic Community, and the Far East. It has been assumed that such products leave Br i t i s h Columbia by boat via Vancouver or any other British Columbia port. 22. ?For example, the estimates on capital goods imports. •^The transport stat i s t i c s are, of course, at the same time, the chief source of information on trade flows between Bri t i s h Columbia and the Rest of Canada. In contrast to exports and imports to foreign countries, such trade flows are not automatically recorded. llQanada, Board of Transport Commissioners, Bureau of Transportation Economics, Waybill Analysis, Carload A l l Rail Traffic. (Ottawa: annual). 12We attempted to obtain possession of duplicates of the waybills i n their unpublished form but were unable to do so. In any event, we regarded a method u t i l i z i n g the waybills inferior to the method we adopted. 13R.F.T. ^The Western group includes the Province of Bri t i s h Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. 15Examples of the use of the Railway stat i s t i c s can be found in the Appendices. ^Canada, D.B.S., Motor Transport Traffic;. British Columbia, (Ottawa: annual). ^Canada, D.B.S., C i v i l Aviation, (Ottawa: annual). ^According to a letter from the Bureau, returns from sawmills in the interior of Bri t i s h Columbia average only f i f t y per cent. Private Correspondence, D.B.S., Industry Statistics, July 7, 1966. ^ T h i s became especially apparent in the case of sawn lumber. 23. 2 0 B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). ^•The Annual Report of the Br i t i s h Columbia Forest Service on the other hand lacked coverage. It understated exports and the data contained i n the Report could not be reconciled with other sources of information. B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Forests, Report of the  British Columbia Forest Service, (Victoria: annual). •^Especially from some of the annual reports of the Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company of Canada Limited. ^ E s p e c i a l l y for agricultural products where information on the movements between provinces i s either lacking or d i f f i c u l t to interpret. ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, 25similar commodities may be defined as products which are put to the same general use such as a l l species of softwood lumber. Halibut i s similar to salmon yet both are different from herring, which i s used mainly for animal consumption i n the form of herring meal or o i l . "The value of exports thus determined i s relatively small i n comparison with that determined by the f i r s t method. ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, ^ 28B.C.C.P. 29The Railway stati s t i c s show, of course, only the volume of freight moved. Volume was later converted to value by selecting a suitable value per ton. 24. ^^Estimates of the provincial domestic disappearance have been based on the Canadian domestic disappearance and the proportion of the Canadian population l i v i n g in B.C., i.e., per capita consumption. 31Canada, D.B.S., Census of Canada. 1961. Vol. 6. Part I.  Retail Trade. Analysis of Sales by Commodity. (Ottawa: 1966). ^Canada, Department of Trade and Commerce, Private and Public  Investment i n Canada. (Ottawa: annual). 33canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: British  Columbia. Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa: annual). 34canada, D.B.S., Construction i n Canada. (Ottawa: annual). 35Canada, D.B.S., The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services,  Canada. 1949, (Ottawa: 1956). 25. CHAPTER III THE ESTIMATES SUMMARIZED The estimates on imports and exports are presented i n Tables 1 to 7, and Table 8 respectively. It should be noted that the totals i n these and similar tables do not add due to rounding. We w i l l b r i e f l y discuss the highlights of our estimates. Exports by Commodities: B r i t i s h Columbia's total exports increased by 32 per cent from 1,090 million dollars i n 1961 to 1,476 million dollars i n 1964. Not surprisingly, the majority of Br i t i s h Columbia's exports consists of primary products, mainly forest and mineral products. In 1964 the exports of forest products comprised 63 per cent of total exports and mineral products another 21 per cent. The remainder was divided among f i s h products (6 per cent), agricultural products (3 per cent), and miscellaneous products (5 per cent). Among the forest products softwood lumber was the most important export, followed by pulpwood and newsprint. Other exports of forest products included f i r plywood and cedar shakes and shingles. The exports of mineral products consisted i n the main of lead and zinc, and aluminum products. The latter are, of course, a f a i r l y recent addition to B r i t i s h Columbia's exports. Other important exports i n this category were the products of copper and iron. 26 TABLE 1 TOTAL EXPORTS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA , a 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) United Kingdom United States Japan European Economic Community Rest of the World Total Foreign Rest of Canada Total 1961 1962 126.4 133.3 497.4- 584.9 52.8 66.4 29.5 37.5 96.6 89.6 802.6 912.2 287.9 380.1 1,090.6 1,291.7 1963 1964 160.0 206.6 616.5 627.9 121.5 134.7 43.3 57.7 107.1 99*** 1,048.0 1,126.8 321.6 349.1 1,370.2 1,475.9 Totals may not add due to rounding. aBased on Tables 3 to 7, pp. 28-32. 27 TABLE 2 TOTAL EXPORTS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA? I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR COMMODITY GROUPS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Forest Products 706.I 820.0 847.2 924.5 Minerals and Mineral Products 210.1 274.9 312'.5 313.8 Fish and Fish Products 69.8 88.8 69.9 87.9 Agricultural Products 24.2 29.7 38.2 38.3 Miscellaneous Products 80.4 78.3 102.4 111.4 Total 1,090.6 1,291.7 1,370.2 1.475.9 Totals may not add due to rounding. aBased on Tables 3 to 7, pp. 28-32. 28 TABLE 3 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF FOREST PRODUCTS*, I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 68.0 69.0 84.0 119.5 United States 381.2 439.1 -+73.7 486.9 Japan 16.7 18.2 45.3 50.7 European Economic Community 15.6 21.0 23.8 37.1 Rest of the World 56.2 44.7 52.8 49.3 Total Foreign 537.7 592.0 '679.7 7^ 3.6 Rest of Canada 168.4 228.1 I67.6 181.0 Total 706.1 820.0 847.2 924.5 T o t a l s may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix I, pp. 45-78. 29. TABLE 4 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN- MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 45.8 49.2 59.5 61.2 United States 51.7 75.1 73.1 66.9 Japan 33.0 44.6 64.3 69.4 European Economic Community 10.1 10.2 . 9.5 5.5 Rest of the World 27.7 31.7 31.6 29.2 Total Foreign 168.3 211.8 237.9 232.2 Rest of Canada 41.8 64.1 74.6 81.6 Total 210.1 274.9 312.5 313.8 Totals may not add due to rounding, Cf. Appendix II, pp. 79-121. 30 TABLE 5 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF FISH PRODUCTS* 19ol - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 9.7 11.4 12.5 21.0 United States 16.2 19.6 18.5 20.4 Japan .1 .2 .8 .8 European Economic Community 2.7 4.2 6.9 8.8 Rest of the World 3.1 3.5 6.1 6.8 Total Foreign 31.8 38.9 44.8 57.8 Rest of Canada 38.0 49.9 25.1 30.1 Total 69.8 88.8 69.9 87.9 Toto: Is may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, pp. 122-130. 31. TABLE 6 BRITISH COLOMBIA EXPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS1, 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 1.9 2.6 2.6 3.2 United States ; 11.1 11.5 12.8 10.7 Japan .4 .2 .9 .5 European Economic Community .1 .8 2.0 3.5 Rest of the World .4 1.4 3.1 3.5 Total Foreign 13.8 16.5 21.4 21.3 Rest of Canada 10.3 13.2 16.8 16.9 Total 24.2 29.7 38.2 38.3 Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, pp. 131-143. 32 TABLE ? BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF MISCELLANEOUS PRODUCTS*, 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.2 United States 37.2 39.6 38.4 43.0 Japan 2.6 3.2 10.2 13.3 European Economic Community 1.0 1.3 1.1 2.8 Rest of the World 9.2 8.3 13.5 10.6 Total Foreign 51.0 53.5 64.9 71.9 Rest of Canada 29.4 24.8 37.5 39.5 Total 80.4 78.3 102.4 111.4 Totals may not add due to rounding. a C f . Appendix III, pp. 144-! .148 33. Exports of salmon were the largest item among the f i s h products (66 per cent of the tot a l ) . The largest increases in the exports of f i s h products occurred for herring meal and o i l and for miscellaneous f i s h products, which increased i n the four year period by roughly 250 and 400 per cent respectively. The exports of apples and l i v e animals formed the most impor-tant category among the exports of agricultural products. Finally, food and f e r t i l i z e r exports were important among the miscellaneous products. Exports by Countries; The most important customer of B r i t i s h Columbia's exports was the United States, taking about 43 per cent of the total exports i n 1964. The majority of these exports consisted of forest products, mainly i n the form of lumber and newsprint. Substantial quantities of forest, mineral and f i s h products were exported to the Rest of Canada, which also imported slightly less than half of Br i t i s h Columbia's exports of agricultural products. Exports to the United Kingdom increased by 63 per cent over the four year period. These exports consisted largely of forest and mineral products. A similarly significant increase i n exports has been recorded to the countries of the European Economic Community. These exports increased i n the four years by about 96 per cent. The most significant increase i n exports has been recorded for Japan. In the time span under consideration exports to Japan, based mainly on the exports of forest and mineral products, more than doubled. 34. It is interesting to note that exports to the Rest of the World actually declined between 1963 and 1964. This seems to support the fact that trading between developed and developing countries does not increase as rapidly as trade between industrialized nations. Imports: According to the estimates, total imports to British Columbia have increased between 1961 and I963 by only 15 per cent, from 1,051 million dollars to 1,2C4 million dollars. In I96I approximately half of these imports consisted of consumer goods, followed by capital equipment (21 per cent), construction materials (19 per cent), and industrial materials (9 per cent). The majority of British Columbia's imports originated in the Rest of Canada. In I963 these imports amounted to 83O million dollars or 69 per cent of total imports. The value of imports from abroad increased only slightly in the three years. It should be emphasized however, that the estimates cannot be considered as indicating a trend. In the f i r s t place the time span is too short. In the second place, Canada experienced an exchange crisis in I960, with a subsequent devaluation of the Canadian dollar and the introduction of temporary import surcharges. The slow increase of imports from abroad might well be attributed to this event. The majority of foreign imports originated in the United States. In 1961, 64 per cent of a l l food products were imported from the United States. The picture is similar for certain industrial materials and, of course, capital equipment. TABLE 8 TOTAL COMMODITY IMPORTS TO BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM CANADA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD, 1961 - 1963 (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1261 1962 1963 Rest of Rest of Rest of Total Foreign Canada Total Foreign Canada Total Foreign Canada Consumer Goods 529.7 154.3 375.4 588.2 154.5 433.7 628.0 155.5 472.5 Construction Materials I96.2 25.0 171.2 210.2 32.8 177.4 231.2 34.2 I97.O Industrial Materials 100.7 93.4 7.3 97.6 88.2 9.4 100.8 89.7 11.1 Capital Equipment 225.1 84.1 141.0 221.3 89.5 131.8 244.3 94.1 150.2 Total 1,051.2 356.8 694.9 1,117.3 365.0 752.3 1,204.3 373.5 830.8 Totals may not add due to rounding. a C f . Table 89, p. 178; Table 91, p. 182; Table 92, p. 186; and Table 93, p. 192. 36. Exports and Imports Compared; The estimates reveal that between 1961 and 1963 British Columbia's exports consisted mainly of primary products, while imports consisted largely of manufactured goods. In addition, a triangular trade flow pattern emerges: while British Columbia's exports were destined mainly to foreign countries, her imports originated mainly in the Rest of Canada. As a result British Columbia has a large positive trade balance with foreign countries. In 1961 the balance of trade with foreign countries was 446 million dollars, increasing to 675 million dollars in I963. The overall balance of trade (total exports minus total imports) is small but positive. It increased from 39 million dollars in 1961 to 166 million dollars in 1963. The above, of course, implies that the trade balance with the Rest of Canada is negative. In 1961 British Columbia imported 407 million dollars more from the Rest of Canada than i t exported. 37 CHAPTER IV THE ACCURACY OF THE ESTIMATES In some forms of statistical analysis i t is feasible to attach a probability to the accuracy of the estimates. It i s , for example, possible with a specified degree of confidence to infer from a sample mean the limits between which the true population mean must f a l l . The nature of our data precludes such an estimate. Rather we must be satisfied with the specification of the possible sources of error and the resulting bias of the estimates. The purpose of this section is to discuss in general terms these possible sources. A more specific description is contained at the relevant points in the appendices. Basically the conceivable errors may be divided into three categories: errors contained in the data, errors of omission, and errors introduced into the estimates through faulty assumptions. The Data; In some cases the insufficiency of the data presented a problem. For example, the absence of shipment data on a provincial basis was probably the most noticeable. Production figures are only a poor substitute because of changes in inventory. Within a particular source there remains the question of definition caused by insufficiency of explanatory notes - do shipments labelled ''Canada" include shipments to points in British Columbia? - and partly by the inability of the analyst to interpret items such as 38. "biological products for human use" and place these items into the appropriate commodity group. Additional sources of errors are introduced by changes of classifications necessitated by the changing patterns of trade. Occasionally the changes in trade are so pronounced that a revision of the entire classification becomes necessary. This occurred in 1964 when a completely new import classification system was introduced by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. The new classification system was identical to that introduced for exports several years earlier. The important point i s that the old (1963 and before) and the new (1964 and after) classifications are not s t r i c t l y comparable even i f one should attempt the time consuming task of reconciling the two systems. It i s for this reason that we have omitted the estimation of commodity imports for the year 1964. A similar and equally perplexing situation arises when two sources of information which use different classification systems are compared or the analyst endeavours to use both sources in sequential analysis. Nor need the classification system be entirely different; the separate l i s t i n g of "strawberries fresh" and "strawberries frozen" in one publication and the l i s t i n g s of "strawberries fresh and frozen" in another introduce additional d i f f i c u l t i e s . We have already remarked on the fact that different publications use different units of measurement. Exports of lumber are measured i n millions of board feet i n the British Columbia Customs Ports data while r a i l deliveries of lumber to the United States are measured in tons in the Railway s t a t i s t i c s . The solution to the problem i s to discover the 39. appropriate conversion factor, a difficult and time consuming task. Errors may also arise when some data are presented only in value terms while other are listed in terms of volume only. A comparison requires a third publication which contains both volume and value figures. These limitations forced us repeatedly to convert our data from value to volume terms or vice versa in the course of one estimation. Such a conversion requires the use of unit prices .\Whehever feasible unit prices from the British Columbia Customs Ports data were used in the calculations. It was thought that these unit prices reflected best the returns received by the exporter. Finally, we would like to comment briefly on the important question of the selection of the data used in the analysis. It is obvious that a shortage of information creates a problem, i t is, however, not so obvious that the availability of several sources of information a l l differing from each other in some detail can do the same. Which source should be chosen? No clear-cut answer can be given. The choice depends on the particular circumstances, on the past experience with the source and could vary from commodity to commodity. One must be aware, however, that this choice will have a crucial effect on the accuracy of the estimates. Omissions; The careful reader of this th.e:sis will, without doubt, find several stages or steps in the calculations which have been omitted from the analysis. These omissions are discussed in the appendices. At this point the likely effects of only two omissions shall be mentioned. 40. Our estimates, especially those on exports, rely in some cases heavily on the available transport statistics. As noted previously, the high aggregation of the statistics on truck traffic 3- precluded their use in the analysis. The nature of the overwhelming part of British Columbia's exports on the one hand suggests that the omission of these statistics does not introduce a significant error into the estimate. The method of calculation employed in the estimation of imports, on the other hand, also ensures that the omission of these data influence the accuracy/ of the results only in a minor way. In our estimates we have also failed to take into account transportation costs, as well as customs and excise taxes. The omission of the former leads to an upward bias in the estimates of imports of consumption goods from the Rest of Canada, while the omission of the latter has the exact opposite effect. Assumptions; Basically any assumption implies that the analyst does not possess the necessary information to make a direct estimate. In other words, an assumption implies uncertainty. It is nevertheless possible to test the validity of the assumption by a critical examination of the result. Results which do not appear plausible or disagree with other known data are discarded and new assumptions are formulated. This had to be done many times during our study after i t had become obvious that the assumptions employed lead to spurious and contradictory results.*^ We do not intend to describe and investigate at this point the many assumptions which were required in the analysis. Again, we refer 4 1 . the reader to the relevant section in the appendices. However, two assumptions, which have been employed throughout the thesis, merit discussion, since both w i l l affect the overall accuracy of the estimates. In the f i r s t place i t has been assumed that for many commodities the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data reflect the true size of British Columbia's trade flow to foreign countries. In the case of exports the value of commodities thus estimated i s fortunately small. Moreover, any errors introduced by the assumption may impart an upward or a downward bias to the estimates. For exports from the Rest of Canada, which are in trans-shipment through Br i t i s h Columbia, the former w i l l occur.3 For B r i t i s h Columbia exports, leaving Canada through customs ports of other provinces, the latter w i l l be the result. In consequence, possible errors may be expected to cancel. In the case of imports we are less certain. We have attempted to account for some foreign imports which are in trans-shipment through B r i t i s h Columbia. Any omission lends an upward bias to the estimates of imports from abroad and at the same time a downward bias to the estimates of imports from the Rest of Canada. The exact opposite would occur whenever foreign imports destined for B r i t i s h Columbia enter Canada through customs ports of one of the other provinces. Unfortunately, information on the size or value of such imports simply does not exist. Yet i t would, because of the high trans-portation costs from Eastern Canada, appear reasonable to assume that, except for a few special items, the size of such imports i s small. While the biases introduced through the f i r s t assumption may 42. cancel to some extent, the errors resulting from the second assumption w i l l not. The majority of the estimates have been calculated with data which represents the net movement of commodities from or to the Rest of Canada. More precisely, i t has been assumed that crosshauling of commodities does not occur, or, i f i t does, that i t i s small in magnitude and may be omitted from the calculations. Frequently this may indeed be true. In other cases, however, a substantial amount of crosshauling may exist. The estimates on exports and imports from the Rest of Canada are threfore minimum estimates. Any crosshauling of a commodity w i l l increase the size of these estimates. Conclusions Considering a l l the various sources of errors together i t becomes d i f f i c u l t to assess their importance and the direction of the bias which they impart to the estimates. In the case of exports we are confident that for the majority of the commodities we have been able to arrive at estimates which represent an accurate reflection of the true magnitude of the trade flows. We are much less certain about the accuracy of the import estimates. The high aggregation in the analysis as well as the use of certain debatable assumptions leads us to conclude that the estimates on commodity imports are at best an approximation and should be considered as such. Based on the experience gained i n the analysis, we feel that the estimates on exports as well as on imports understate the true •+3. magnitude of Br i t i s h Columbia's trade f l o w s A l t h o u g h i t i s d i f f i c u l t to attach any precise figure to the size of the bias, we feel that overall the error may be in the neighbourhood of five per cent for exports and fifteen per cent for imports. Canada, D.B.S., Motor Transport Traffic; B r i t i s h Columbia. 2More than 100 man-hours were "wasted" formulating and testing assumptions about the exports of lumber u n t i l the uniqueness of product approach had been developed. ^The B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data provide some guidance in this respect. Commodities considered to be principally of Br i t i s h Columbia origin are marked with an asterik i n the data. ^The use of net flows i n the calculations i s one of the reasons for assuming the estimates to have a downward bias. APPENDIX I EXPORTS OF FOREST PRODUCTS The forest industry i s British Columbia's most important industry and forest products form the largest export item of the Province. An accurate estimate of the exports of forest products i s therefore of particular importance. Exports of Lumber Exports of British Columbia lumber are recorded i n the British Columbia Customs Ports date?- and the production and shipment data of the Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s . 2 There exists unfortunately, a wide dis-crepancy between these two sources. In 1962, for example, the British Columbia Customs Ports data and the Dominion Bureau of Statistics data3 l i s t international exports of lumber as 1.1 and 2.5 million million board feet respectively. The difference i s equally remarkable in other years. An under-estimation of exports in the British Columbia Customs  Ports data i s , of course, due to shipments of Br i t i s h Columbia lumber which leave Canada through the customs ports of other provinces. Indeed, the Railway statistics*"* indicate that large shipments of British Columbia lumber enter the United States via Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The classification of lumber in the Railway stat i s t i c s regrettably includes shingles and lath. Although production of the latter i s small, relative to that of lumber, such aggregation precludes the use of the Railway 46. s t a t i s t i c s i n the estimation of lumber exports to the United States. The data of the Dominion Bureau of Statistics,-' however, are also known to underestimate the true exports of lumber. An underesti-mation occurs whenever the sawmills s e l l lumber to Br i t i s h Columbia firms engaged i n the business of exporting lumber. In such a case the sawmills w i l l report the transaction as sales to points i n Bri t i s h Columbia when in fact the lumber i s ultimately exported. After several f r u i t l e s s attempts to devise a practical method for an accurate estimation of lumber exports, we discovered, that several species of timber are unique to Bri t i s h Columbia, i.e., are grown and harvested exclusively i n Br i t i s h Columbia. These species account for approximately ninety per cent of the total value of lumber production i n B r i t i s h Columbia. The major species could be identified as having been grown and produced i n Bri t i s h Columbia and are l i s t e d in Table 9, page 4?. In addition to the species l i s t e d i n Table 9, Ponderosa pine i s grown only i n British Columbia. Western white spruce, although i t occurs as far east as Manitoba, may be included i n the l i s t as the total spruce production i n Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba i s only a fraction of that produced i n British Columbia. Any exports of western white spruce to the United States, therefore, have to originate mainly in B r i t i s h Columbia. For any commodity which i s produced only i n British Columbia and nowhere else i n Canada, the Trade of Canada export statistics may then be used in the calculation of exports to foreign countries.^ 47. TABLE 9 SPECIES OF LUMBER IDENTIFIABLE AS BRITISH COLUMBIA PRODUCTS a Species  Douglas F i r Hemlock Cedar, red and white Larch Lodgepole pine British Columbia Production as a Percentage of Canadian Production 99.3 97.5 98.0 100.0 94.2 a Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, (Ottawa: annual) 48. Offshore Exports; It should be noted that the national and the provincial customs ports data as well as the data on shipments agreed with respect to offshore export of lumber which could be identified as having originated i n Br i t i s h Columbia. It was therefore assumed that the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data report accurately the offshore exports of lumber for a l l species. Exports to the United States; To estimate exports to the United States the Trade of Canada statistics? have been used for species identifiable as products of Bri t i s h Columbia. This assumes that the other Western Provinces producing small quantities of the same species do not export lumber of that species to the United States. This assumption appears reasonable as a l l other Western Provinces are wood d e f i c i t areas.® For species which were not identifiable as British Columbia products (less that ten per cent of total B r i t i s h Columbia production) i t was assumed that the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data underestimated these species to the same extent as they underestimated the export of  species which are clearly British Columbia products. For Br i t i s h Columbia species the Customs Ports data recorded less than half of the actual exports. We accordingly increased the British Columbia Customs  Ports data on lumber export for species which are also grown and produced in the Rest of Canada by proportionately equal amounts. This approach, which we named the proxy method, has been discussed previously i n the Q chapter on Methods of Estimation. Exports to the Rest of Canada; In the estimation of exports to the Rest of Canada, i t has been assumed that the Dominion Bureau of 49. Statistics data on the production of lumber, adjusted for inventory changes, are correct estimates of total shipments for each species.^ By deducting the estimates of exports to the United States and of exports to the Rest of the World from these production figures, an estimate of Canadian disappearance of Br i t i s h Columbia lumber was obtained. Such an estimate was made for a l l major species i n volume terms. The volume figures were later converted into value figures. The conversion of volume to value estimate required an estimate of unit prices for each species. Two sets of unit prices were available: the unit prices of the Trade of Canada st a t i s t i c s and those of the British Columbia Customs Ports data. The unit prices of the two sets of stat i s t i c s were found to be consistent with respect to a l l exports except those to the United States. We have applied the unit prices of the Trade of Canada stati s t i c s for those species which could be identified as B r i t i s h Columbia products and the unit prices from the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data for a l l remaining species, both for exports to the United States and for the evaluation of the Canadian domestic disappearance. With respect to exports to a l l other countries the value figures from the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data have been used. Finally, an estimate of exports of lumber to the Rest of Canada was obtained by subtracting from the Canadian domestic disappearance an estimate of provincial disappearance.^- The estimate of the latter was based on the Canadian per capita consumption of lumber. 5 0 . TABLE 10 PRODUCTION, EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE OF B. C. LUMBER BY SPECIES, 1961 (VOLUME IN THOUSAND MILLION BOARD FEET: VALUE IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) Species Production* Inventory.. Adjustment0 Shipments^ .. .Other Exports' (volume) (volume) (volume) (volume) Douglas F i r 2,082 - 23 2,105 354 Hemlock 1,264 - 4 1,268 464 Balsam 47 2 45 34 Cedar 612 - 4 616 99 Spruce, total 1,073 39 1,034 50 Spruce, Western White Spruce, n.e.s. 50 Pine, total 196 - 12 208 1 Pine, White 80 - 12 92 Pine 32 - 4 36 Pine, lodgepole 84 4 80 1 Larch 69 2 67 Other softwoods 26 6 20 2 Hardwoods 3 3 - -Total 5,393 1,004 51. TABLE 10 (Continued) Exports . .Exports _ t o .U.S.. Domestic Species to U.S.C Adjustment^ Disappearance3-^ (volume) (volume) (volume) Douglas F i r 373 1,262 489 Hemlock 414 574 230 Balsam 1 2^ 9 Cedar 92 293 224 Spruce, total 42 960 24 Spruce, Western White 2 6 1 0 9225 Spruce, n.e.s. 1 8 1 0 38 Pine, total 23 100 108 Pine, white ) ) Pine ) 34° ) 94 Pine, Lodgepole 66? 14 Larch 4 41 26 Other softwoods 1 2^ 16 Hardwoods 1.6 1.6 1 Total 1,044 3,254 1,135 52 TABLE 10 (Continued) Adjusted ... .Unit. _ Exports Domestic Species Prices' 3 to U.S.--- Disappearance' (in dollars (value) (value) per m.b.f.) Douglas F i r 62.98 79,481 30,797 Hemlock 73.12 41,971 16,818 Balsam 90.91 182 830 Cedar 77.72f 22,772 17,409 '8 Spruce, total 56.88^  1,365 Spruce, Western White 56.8Sg 52,443 Spruce, n.e.s. 68.OO0 2,584 Pine, total 82.089 8,865 Pine, White 82.089 2,791 Pine Pine, Lodgepole 82.087 5,417 Larch 60.06' 2,462 1,562 Other softwoods 62.18 124 994 Hardwoods I38.O3 221 138 Total 210,448 78,778 53. TABLE 10 (Continued) aCanada,. .D.B.S.., Production, Shipments and Stocks on Hand of  Sawmills in Br i t i s h Columbia, (Ottawa: monthly), December 1962, page 3. forbid., December 196l, page 3« _ cBr.itish Columbia, B.E.S.. Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports. (Victoria. B.C.: annual), 196T. ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, (Ottawa: monthly/), December 196l. e I b i d . •^Unit price of Western Red Cedar calculated from: Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, (Ottawa: monthly), December 1961. -•-Unit prices times adjusted volume of exports to the United States. Unit prices times volume of domestic disappearance. 3Production data adjusted for changes i n inventory. ^Proxy method. Cf. page 16. 5cf. Appendix V, page 48. °Cf. Appendix V, page 202. ?Cf. Appendix V, page 201. 8calculated from: Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, (Ottawa: annual) 1964. 9unit price of pine calculated from B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S. Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs  Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual), 1961. •^Shipments less "Other Exports" and "Adjusted" exports to the United States. 54 TABLE 11 EXPORTS OF LUMBER TO THE REST OF CANADA,3 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSAND MILLION BOARD FEET AND THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 1. Estimated B.C. disappearance of lumber0 (thousand m.b.f.) 279 288 309 328 2. B.C. shipments less e s t i -mated exports abroad 0 (thousand m.b.f.) 1,135 1,571 923 1,038 3. (1) as a proportion of (2) .246 .183 .335 .316 4. (1) minus (3) .754 .81? .665 .684 5. Value of shipments less estimated value of export abroad 0 (in thousands of dollars) 78,778 117,304 61,592 71,129 6. Estimated value of exports of lumber to the Rest of Canada (in thousands of dollars) ...... (4) multiplied by (5) 59.396 95,837 40.959 48.652 aCf. Appendix V, page .197. *>Table 96, page 199. cTable 10, page 50. 55 TABLE 12 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF LUMBER* I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1?62. 1963 1964 United Kingdom 37.5 34.8 41.9 57.6 United States 210.4 2 5 5 . 7 2 7 6 . 3 283.0 Japan 11.5 8.2 2 1 . 5 17.9 European Economic Community 5.2 7.4 9 . 0 12.4 Rest of the World 2 3 . 7 22.2 2 6 . 5 24.1 Total Foreign 2 8 9 . 9 328.4 375.2 395.0 Rest of Canada 59.4 95.8 41.0 4 - 3 . 7 Total Exports 34^ .3 424.2 416.2 443.6 Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix I, pp. 45-55 Exports of Newsprint and Basic .Paper Products In the estimation of international exports of newsprint and basic paper products reliance had to be based on the British Columbia Customs Ports data. The Railway stat i s t i c s indicated that some shipments of newsprint leave B r i t i s h Columbia via Alberta either to Eastern Canada or to the United States. However, the large shipments originating i n Manitoba and large net inflows of newsprint from Eastern Canada into Western Canada prevented the use of Railway s t a t i s t i c s to determine the exact size of these exports. Exports to the Rest of Canada have been estimated by subtracting from the shipment data of the Dominion Bureau of Statistics 3- 2 the exports to foreign countries as recorded i n the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data as well as an estimate of the provincial disappearance. The latter was obtained by employing the value of materials used i n British Columbia i n the production of paper products.-*-3 The residual of production minus foreign exports minus provincial disappearance presents an estimate of exports to the Rest of Canada. This residual should be positive i f one considers that Br i t i s h Columbia i s a large producer and exporter of basic paper products. Surprisingly, the residual decreases between 1961 and 1963 and becomes negative i n the following year. This negative residual i s small and i s presumably the result of an overestimation of the provincial disappearance. As the error i s small relative to the value of production and exports, i t w i l l suffice to note that the estimated exports to the Rest of Canada contain a downward bias. 57. TABLE 13 BASIC PAPER AND PAPERBGARD - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Shipments a 150,778 157,097 155,599 169,468 Less exports abroad b 109,160 116,481 123,039 139,735 41,618 40,616 32,560 29,733 Plus foreign imports b — 2,386 2,049 2,016 41,618 43,002 34,609 31,749 Less B.C. disappearance c 27,923 28,978 31,675 31,861 Exports to the Rest of 13,695 14,024 2,934 -132 Canada n i l or negligible. a Canada, D.B.S., Pulp and Paper Mills, (Ottawa: annual). D British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C., annual). c Canada, D.B.S. , Manufacturing Industries of Canada: British Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories^ (Ottawa: annual). 58 TABLE 14 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF "NEWSPRINT AND BASIC PAPER PRODUCTS, 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) United Kingdom United States Japan European Economic Community Rest of the World Total Foreign Rest of Canada Total 1961 1962 7.4 8.8 93.0 100.9 .2 8.6 6.6 109.2 116.3 13.7 1-+.0 122.9 130.3 1963 1964 10.5 9.^ 103.5 11^ .0 .1 5.6 8.9 10.7 123.0 139.7 2.9 125.9 139.7 — n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix I, pp. 56-57. 59. Exports of Pulpwood and Pulpwood Chips In 1964 the Railway s t a t i s t i c s ^ reveal that of 219 thousand tons of pulpwood loaded i n Br i t i s h Columbia, 213 thousand tons are unloaded i n the Province, while only slightly over 3 thousand tons have been delivered to united States r a i l connections. "Unloaded" i n B r i t i s h Columbia implies that the pulpwood has been used either for domestic consumption or has been exported via ocean ports. These exports are, of course, l i s t e d i n the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. We conclude that i n this case the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data refl e c t accurately the true size of exports abroad and furthermore that there have been no noticeable shipments of pulp and pulpwood chips to the Rest of Canada. 60 TABLE 15 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF PULPWOOD & CHIPS* I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom -— — — United States 7.5 8.1 11.5 8.5 Japan -— — .1 »1 European Economic Community — -— — — Rest of the World — Total Foreign 7.5 8.1 11.6 8.6 Rest of Canada — — - — Total 7.5 8.1 11.6 8.6 — n i l or negligible. Totals.may not add due to rounding aCf. Appendix I, p. 59. 61. Shakes and Shingles An overwhelming proportion of shakes and shingles produced in British Columbia are made of Western Red Cedar, a species which grows only in British Columbia. This implies that i t is possible to employ the Trade of Canada statistics!5 in determining the exports of shakes and shingles to foreign countries. Again, the British Columbia Customs Ports data seriously underestimated the actual imports of shakes and shingles. In 1964, for example, the British Columbia Customs Ports data3-** and the Trade of Canada statistics3-? showed exports valued at 13.6 million dollars and 31*8 million dollars respectively. Exports to the Rest of Canada have been estimated by subtracting from the Dominion Bureau of Statistics shipment data3-® the value of foreign exports and an estimate of the provincial disappearance of shakes and shingles. TABLE 16 SHAKES AND SHINGLES - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1964 CN THOUSANDS OF R.F.S.Q.i SND THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) B. C. Shipments a Less exports abroad a Less B.C. disappearance Exports to the Rest of Canada Unit Price a (Thousands of d o l l a r s per thousands of R.F.S.Q.) Exports t o the Rest of Canada (In thousands of d o l l a r s ) 1961 1962 1963 2,22? 2,257 2,793 2,019 2,193 2,501 208 64 292 21 8 28 187 56 264 8.852 10.072 11.730 1,655 564 3,097 a Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, (Ottawa: annual) b C f . Table 98, p. 204. 63 TABLE 17 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF SHAKES AND SHINGLES4 I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .3 .2 .3 .3 United States 20.0 23.3 29.2 30.7 European Economic Community — — —- — Rest of the World .1 .1 .2 .3 Total Foreign 20.4 23.6 30.0 31.3 Rest of Canada 1.7 .6 2.7 1.2 Total 22.1 24.2 32.4 32.5 — nil or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding, a Cf. Appendix I, pp. 61 and 62. 64. Plywood and Veneer Brit i s h Columbia i s by far the largest producer of plywood and veneer in the four Western provinces. An examination of the Railway data 3^ discloses that large shipments of plywood and veneer loaded in Bri t i s h Columbia are exported to the Rest of Canada and that a considerably smaller proportion i s exported to the United States. In attempting to u t i l i z e the data we were met with the problem of reconciling two different units of measurements. While the above data measure shipments in tons, the production data l i s t shipments in square feet. Regrettably we were not able to discover i n the available l i t e r a -ture a suitable conversion factor. Presumably, the latter would vary depending on the species and the thickness of the plywood. We observed, however, that ninety per cent of a l l plywood and veneer produced in Br i t i s h Columbia consists of hemlock and douglas f i r . ^ These species have previously been identified as products unique to Br i t i s h Columbia. This, in turn, means that i t i s permissable to employ the Trade of Canada s t a t i s t i c s 2 3 - in the calculation of foreign exports. An estimate of exports to the Rest of Canada has been computed by subtracting from the B r i t i s h Columbia shipment d a t a 2 2 the exports to foreign countries and an estimate of the provincial disappearance of plywood and veneer. The latt e r was computed by the per capita consumption method. The above procedure contains two biases. On the one hand, the use of plywood and veneer made of hemlock and douglas f i r (ninety per cent of total production in Br i t i s h Columbia) in the estimation of foreign exports results i n an underestimation of the la t t e r . Exports to the 65. Rest of Canada on the other hand, are l i k e l y to be overestimated as i t may be reasonably assumed that because of the easy avai l a b i l i t y of plywood and veneer i n British Columbia, per capita consumption w i l l be higher in the Province than in the Rest of Canada. 66. TABLE 18 PLYWOOD AND VENEER - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 B. C. Shipments a 77,597 87,376 98,969 109,058 Less B.C. exports abroad b 12,467 17,6?8 20,792 29,273 65,130 69,698 78,177 79,785 B. C. Disappearance c 6,250 6,697 7,762 8,985 Exports to the Rest of Canada 58,880 63,001 70,415 70,800 a Canada, D.B.S., Veneer and Plywood M i l l s , (Ottawa: annual), b Canada, D.B.S., Export by Commodities, (Ottawa: monthly), c Table 97 , page 203. 67. TABLE 19 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF PLYWOOD AND VENEER* I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) United Kingdom United States Japan European Economic Community Rest of the World Total foreign Rest of Canada Total 1961 1962 11.4 16.1 .1 .1 .1 .5 .3 .3 11.9 > 17.1 58.9 63.0 70.8 80.1 1963 1964 18.3 26.2 .3 1.1 2.4 .5 .6 • 20.1 29.2 70.4 70.8 90.5 100.0 - n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix I, pp. 64-66. 68. Woodpulp The Railway s t a t i s t i c s ^ indicate that substantial quantities of woodpulp originating in Br i t i s h Columbia and i n Alberta are shipped to Eastern Canada and, via Saskatchewan and Manitoba, to the United States. As i t i s impossible to distinguish between Bri t i s h Columbia woodpulp and Alberta woodpulp in the total shipment data, i t has been assumed that Br i t i s h Columbia and Alberta contribute to these shipments in relation to the size of their surplus. Here surplus i s understood to mean production minus unloadings i n the province and deliveries to the United States. If, for example, the combined surplus of British Columbia and Alberta i n a given year i s 800 thousand tons, of which 600 thousand tons originate in British Columbia, i t has been assumed that 75 per cent of the recorded shipments to Eastern Canada and 75 per cent of the shipments delivered to the United States via border crossing in Saskatchewan and Manitoba originated i n Br i t i s h Columbia. Shipments are l i s t e d in volume terms. To determine the value of the shipments, unit values from the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data have been employed. The resulting estimates of additional exports to the United States via customs ports of the other three Western provinces have been added to the exports l i s t e d in the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. 69. TABLE 20 WOODPULP - EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES AND TO THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 Exports abroad a 71,181 Additional exports to the United States b 21,663 Total exports abroad 92,844 Exports to th© Rest of Canada b 34,790 1962 1963 1964 71,929 88,4^8 110,023 19,411 23,371 22,665 91,340 111,869 132,688 54,673 50,590 60,323 a B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports (Victoria, B.C.: annual). b Ibid., and Table 22 , page 71. TABLE 21 BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA SURPLUS OF WOODPULP, 1961 - I964 a (IN THOUSANDS OF TONS) Loadings Unloading s Delivered to United States r a i l connections Surplus 1961 B.C. Alta. 688 182 46 10 529 642 172 113 172 1962 B.C. Alta. 895 61 834 148 686 164 18 146 146 1963 B.C. Alta. 903 77 826 154 672 a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Traffic, (Ottawa: annual). 193 17 176 176 1964 B.C. Alta. 974 76 896 195 203 18 185 703 185 ^3 O 71 TABLE 22 WOODPULP - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND ADDITIONAL EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, 1 9 6 1 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF TONS) 1961 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 4 C. surplus as a percentage of combined B.C. and Alberta surplus 3 75*5 8 2 . 5 7 9 . 2 7 9 . 2 C. share of exports to the U.S. b 203 180 211 192 C. share of net movements to Eastern Canadab 326 507 460 511 a Calculated from Table 21 , 70. b Calculated from Table 23 , 72. 72 TABLE 23 RAIL SHIPMENTS OF WOODPULP , a l ° 6 l - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF TONS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Delivered to United States r a i l connections from points i n Manitoba and Saskatchewan 269 218 267 242 Net movement to Eastern Canada 432 6l4 58I 646 a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Tr a f f i c , (Ottawa: annual). 73 TABLE 24 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF WOODPULP*, I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 10.1 8.9 13.1 25.3 United States 46.7 47.6 49.1 47.9 Japan 2.5 6.7 19.3 23.4 European Economic 13.8 22.3 Ctammunity 10.0 13.0 Rest of the World 23.5 15.2 16.6 13.7 Total Foreign 92.8 91.3 111.9 132.7 Rest of Canada 34.8 54.7 50.6 60.3 Total 127.6 146.0 162.5 193.0 Totals may not add due to rounding. *Cf. Appendix I, pp. 68-72. Logs and Miscellaneous Wood Products In the estimation of exports of these products complete reliance had to be placed on the Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. The Railway st a t i s t i c s are not sufficiently detailed to reveal shipments of these products. The Trade of Canada st a t i s t i c s could not be used as none of the products could be identified as being unique to Bri t i s h Columbia. Exports to the Rest of Canada are assumed to have been negligible. 75. .TABLE 25 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF LOGS* I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom — — — — United States 1.7 .4 .6 .2 Japan 2.2 2.0 3.7 3.4 European Economic Community ... Rest of the World Total Foreign 3.9 2.4 4.3 3.6 Rest of Canada .. .. .. .. Total 3.9 2.4 4.3 3.6 - — n i l or negligible, .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix I, p. 74. TABLE 26 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF MISCELLANEOUS WOOD PRODUCTS* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 1.3 .2 — .6 United States 1.8 3.1 3.1 2.7 Japan .5 1*2 .6 .4 European Economic Community — — — Rest of the World .3 .1 Total Foreign 3.6 4.8 3.8 3.7 Rest of Canada •• •• .. »• Total 3.6 4.8 3.8 3.7 —.- n i l or negligible. .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. St Cf. Appendix I, p. 74. -•-B.C.CP. 2Canada, D.B.S.» Production. Shipments and Stocks on Hand of  Sawmills in Br i t i s h Columbia. (Ottawa: monthly). 3lbid.. December 1963. ^R.F.T. 5canada, D.B.S., Production, Shipments and Stocks on Hand of  Sawmills in British Columbia, op c i t . ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . 7lbid. ^According to the estimates of Mr. Leslie Reid, formerly economist with the British Columbia Council of Forest Products, Vancouver, B.C. This assumption had to be relaxed i n the case of western white spruce. For the method of adjustment turn to Appendix V, page 200. 9lt i s interesting to note that for the four year period, the united States import data on lumber show or. the average only 93*5 per cent of the Canadian exports as l i s t e d in the Trade of Canada s t a t i s t i c s . The large discrepancy cannot be explained by differences i n timing, as i t occurs in a l l four years. It may be caused by differences in c l a s s i f i c a -tion, Oscar Morgenstern finds that such discrepancies are not unusual, indeed that such variance exists i n the total trade between Canada and the United States as well as for other countries, Oscar Morgenstern, On The Accuracy of Economic Observations. (2nd ed.; Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1965), pages I63-I79. special assumption had to be made for lodgepole pine. For details turn to Appendix V, page 201. 7 8 . H-For details of the computation turn to Appendix V, page 197. l 2Canada, D.B.S., Pulp and Paper M i l l s . (Ottawa: annual). 13canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: British  Columbia. Yukon and Northwest Territories. (Ottawa: annual). 1 4B.F.T. l^canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities. (Ottawa: monthly). 16B.C.C.P. 17canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . ^Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills. (Ottawa: annual). ^R.F.T. 20canada, D.B.S., Veneer and Plywood M i l l s . (Ottawa: monthly). 23-Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . 2 2Canada, D.B.S., Veneer and Plywood Mi l l s , op. c i t . 2 3R.F.T. 79 . APPENDIX II EXPORTS OF MINERALS AND MINERAL PRODUCTS The Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources3-(hereafter referred to as the Report) includes the following products: metals, industrial materials, structural materials and fuels. In the discussion on the exports of minerals we have excluded the structural materials, but included aluminum. Exports of the former are negligible and have been included i n the exports of miscellaneous products. The production and exports of aluminum i n British Columbia, however, i s significant and i t was f e l t that aluminum can properly be considered a metal. In 1964, British Columbia's production of minerals amounted to 329 million d o l l a r s . 2 With the help of the available sources of infor-mation i t was feasible to determine with a high degree of accuracy the value and destination of exports valued at 279 million dollars or approximately 88 per cent of the value of production. In terms of value, the more important minerals produced i n Br i t i s h Columbia are lead, zinc, iron, copper and aluminum among the metals, asbestos among the industrial materials, and natural gas and petroleum among the fuels. In addition to these quantitatively important products, antimony, bismuth, cadmium, t i n and diatomite are produced i n Bri t i s h Columbia but not i n the Rest of Canada.3 80. For the latte r products the Trade of Canada s t a t i s t i c s ^ have been used in the determination of their exports. In the estimation of the more important products we relied heavily on the Railway s t a t i s t i c s , ^ while for a few others the Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data 0 have been employed. In the case of lead and zinc we took advantage of data con-tained i n the Annual Reports of the Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company (Cominco).'' Data on the production of minerals were taken from the Report. The Report also contains data on the exports of fuels. I t has been assumed that the Report excludes minerals which are mined i n the Yukon or i n Alberta and which are subsequently shipped to Bri t i s h Columbia for further processing. The Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company operates the only smelter i n Br i t i s h Columbia.9 It may, therefore, be assumed that a l l mineral ores which are not treated at the smelter are exported. Moreover, in the period between 1961 and 1964 Bri t i s h Columbia did not possess secondary manufacturing f a c i l i t i e s for metals. This implies that a l l or nearly a l l of the metal smelted by Cominco must have been exported. Exports of Lead and Zinc The entire B r i t i s h Columbia production of lead and zinc i s processed by the Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company. Some of the lead and zinc i s shipped by r a i l to the Eastern Seaboard and ultimately to the United Kingdom.^ Thus, the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data as well as the Railway st a t i s t i c s had to be rejected as an accurate indicator of international and domestic exports. The Annual Reports of the Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company while they did not contain value or volume data on shipment, specified the distribution of exports, both to Canada and to the Rest of the World.H This distribution has been applied to the value of production of lead and zinc as recorded i n the Report. For exports to Japan the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data have been used. The lat t e r exports have been subtracted from exports to theRjest of the World as computed by the method described above. 82. TABLE 2? LEAD AND ZINC - DISTRIBUTION OF SHIPMENTS* 1961 - 1964 (IN PER CENT) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Canada 24 24 29 32 United States 30 32 25 21 United Kingdom 1 34 30 34 35 Other Countries 12 14 12 12 a The Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company of Canada Ltd., 56th t 57th, 58th, and 59th Annual Report. 1 Data for I963 and 1964 includes Continental Europe. 8,3. Production a Exports: D Canada United States United Kingdom ^  Japan c Rest of the World TABLE 28 LEAD AND ZINC EXPORTS, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) I96I 1962 87,685 85,893 1963 1964 90,904 98,051 26,362 31,376 22,726 20,591 30,907 34,318 1.650 3,851 9,259 7,915 21,044 20,614 26,306 27,486 29,813 25,768 3,441 773 7,081 11,252 a British Columbia, Department of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources, (Victoria, B.C. annual)• b Table 27 , page 82. c British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 1 Data for 1963 and 1964 includes Continental Europe. 84 TABLE 29 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF LEAD AND ZINC1? I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom a 29.8 25.8 30.9 34.3 United States 26.3 27.5 22.7 20.6 Japan 3.4 .8 1.7 3.9 European Economic Community • • • • • • • • Rest of the World 7.1 11.3 9.3 7.9 Total Foreign 66.6 65.3 64.5 66.7 Rest of Canada 21.0 20.6 26.4 31.4 Total 87.7 85.9 90.9 98.1 Totals may not add due to rounding. •• n o t applicable. a includes Continental Europe. b Cf. Appendix II, pp. 8O-83. 85. Exports of Copper The B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data reveal that large quantities of copper ore concentrates were exported to Japan, a smaller quantity to the United States. This coincides with data found i n the annual Report 3^ and, broadly speaking, with those of the Railway s t a t i s t i c s . Because of large r a i l deliveries of copper i n the form of slabs and ingots from the united States and because of the aggregation of copper, n.o.s., with brass and bronze i n the Railway s t a t i s t i c s , i t was impossible to use the latter i n determining the quantity of copper exports to the united States and the Rest of Canada. As a result, we had to rely on the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs  Ports data to estimate the foreign exports of copper and copper products. Under the assumption that the total production of copper i s exported from Br i t i s h Columbia, exports to the Rest of Canada have been calculated by subtracting international exports from the production figures of the Report. This assumption i s open to argument.. Some of the copper i s probably consumed in Br i t i s h Columbia and the estimated exports to the Rest of Canda w i l l have an upward bias. 86. TABLE 30 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF COPPER & COPPER PRODUCTS? I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) United Kingdom United States Japan European Economic Community Rest of the World Total Foreign Rest of Canada Total 1961 1962 6.8 10.0 .1 18.8 .7 .1 7.6 28.9 1.4 4.4 9.0 33.2 1963 1964 7.5 6.7 25.7 27.5 .1 . 1.4 33.3 35.6 2.9 3.0 36.2 38.6 n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. Cf. Appendix II, p. 85. Exports of Nickel The B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data indicate that the exports of nickel occur mainly in the form of ores, slabs or ingots. In addition, the Railway stat i s t i c s indicate no significant shipments of nickel ores from the large nickel producing provinces of Manitoba and Ontario have been exported through the customs ports of B r i t i s h Columbia. However, i f (in terms of value) the exports l i s t e d in the Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data are subtracted from the production data contained in the Report, the provincial disappearance of B r i t i s h Columbia nickel and nickel products becomes negative in I963 and 1964. We must, therefore, conclude that part of the nickel exported from British Columbia must have originated i n some other provinces. In the absence of additional information about the flow of nickel, exports l i s t e d in the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data have been reduced in the years i n which a negative disappearance of nickel has been obtained. Exports to other countries have been reduced i n proportion to the size of their recorded exports, the total reduction being equal to the size of the negative provincial disappearance.^ 88 TABLE 31 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF NICKEL* I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom — - — 1.3 .1 United States - — — - — Japan 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.8 European Economic Community — — — .6 Rest of the World .7 .4 .4 .4 Rest of Canada «2 .2 Total Foreign 3.0 2.1 3.6 ' 2 . 9 Total 3.2 2.4 3.6 2.9 Totals may not add due to rounding. n i l o r negligible. a Cf. Appendix V, page 205, and Apperidia II,-page 87. 89. Exports of Iron According to the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data a large part of the Br i t i s h Columbia production of iron ore i s exported to Japan, while iron i n the form of pig iron and slabs i s exported mainly to the United States* However, the Railway statistics suggest that additional quantities of pig iron of Br i t i s h Columbia origin have been exported to the United States via the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. We have employed the Railway stat i s t i c s to obtain an estimate of additional exports of pig iron from British Columbia to the United States. Shipments from Eastern Canada were assumed to have been ter-minated in the provinces of Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. By subtracting the total of a l l estimated international exports, an estimate of exports to the Rest of Canada has been obtained. Again this procedure probably overestimates exports to the Rest of Canada as some of the iron products may have been consumed in Br i t i s h Columbia. v 90. TABLE 32 PIG IRON - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND ADDITIONAL 1 EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES , a 1961 - 1964 (IN TONS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 B r i t i s h Columbia: loadings 20,845 28,405 36,788 46,615 less unloadings 12,574 800 845 3,441 Less deliveries to the U.S. 5,715 10,929 10,996 17,842 Estimated B.C. surplus 2,556 16,676 24,947 25,332 Deliveries to the U.S. from the four Western Provinces 8,243 24,566 29,620 32,696 less B. C. deliveries to the U.S. 5,715 10,929 10,996 17,842 Estimated additional exports to the United States 2,528 13,637 18,624 14,854 Estimated B.C. surplus 2,556 16,676 24,94? 25,332 Less estimated additional exports to U.S. 2,528 13,637 18,624 14,854 Estimated exports to the Rest of Canada 28 3,039 6,323 10,478 a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Traffic, (Ottawa: annual). • 1 Rail deliveries to the United States via customs ports of Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. 91. TABLE 33 PIG IRON - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND ADDITIONAL! EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES , a 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Additional exports to the United States 112 619 769 612 Exports to the Rest of Canada — 13 8 26l 432 — n i l or negligible. a Table 32 , page 90. Unit prices have been taken from: British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 1 Via customs ports of Alberta, Manitoba,and Saskatchewan. 92 TABLE 34 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF IRON AND IRON PRODUCTS* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) United Kingdom United States Japan European Economic (Community Rest of the World Total Foreign Rest of Canada Total 1961 1962 2.5 3.6 10.6 14.6 1.5 .9 14.6 19.1 .1 14.6 19.3 1963 1964 3.9 2.6 20.3 18.3 .1 .1 24.3 21.0 .3 .4 24.5 21.4 n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding, a Cf. Appendix II, pp. 89-91. 93. Exports of Tin, Antimony, Bismuth, and Miscellaneous Mineral Products Tin: Canada has no commercial t i n deposits but imports t i n mainly from Malaysia.^ A small quantity of t i n i s produced as a by-product by the Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company at the Kimberly smelter in the treatment of lead-zinc-silver ore. 3^ Antimony and Bismuth: B r i t i s h Columbia i s the only province in Canada which produces antimony. It also mines ninety per cent of the tota l Canadian production of bismuth. Miscellaneous Mineral Products: The production of indium, mercury, molybdenium, tungsten, and other metals not specified separately in the Report, amounted to only $.6 million in 1964. Because of the absence of a metal fabricating industry in British Columbia, the total production of the above minerals has been allocated to exports to the Rest of Canada. Moreover, neither the Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data nor the Trade of Canada s t a t i s t i c s - ^ record exports of these minerals abroad. Exports of Gold A high percentage of the pro vince's gold production comes from lode-gold mines. The remainder i s a by-product from copper and on silver-lead-zinc mines. The British Columbia Customs Ports data do not l i s t exports of gold abroad. Because of this and because of the absence of a metallurgical industry i n British Columbia, i t has been assumed that the entire production was exported to the Rest of Canada.23-TABLE 35 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF METALS WHICH ARE EXPORTED ONLY TO THE REST OF CANADA, 19ol - 1964 (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1?63 Gold 5.8 6.0 6.0 Tin .7 .3 .6 Antimony .5 .7 .6 Bismuth .6 .5 .3 Miscellaneous .8 .7 .5 Total 8.4 8.4 8.1 Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix II, p. 93. • 9 5 . Exports of Silver In B r i t i s h Columbia, silver i s produced mainly from silver-lead-zinc ore and as a by-product from copper ore. 2 2 Because of the lack of any additional information i t was assumed that the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data are a reliable indicator of the true magnitude of international exports. The residual of production minus exports abroad was assumed to have been exported to the Rest of Canada. 96. TABLE 36 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF SILVER8 I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) United Kingdom United States Japan European Economic Community Rest of the World Total Foreign Rest of Canada Total ___6l_ 1962 3.6 3.6 .7 .4 4.3 4.0 2.7 3.2 7.0 7.2 1963 1964 3.4 3.8 .3 .3 3.7 4.1 5.2 3.3 8.9 7.3 Totals may not add due to rounding aCf. Appendix II, p. 95. — n i l or negligible 97. Exports of Cadmium The production of cadmium is associated with the production of zinc. A large percentage of the total Canadian production originates in 23 British Columbia. An analysis of the Canadian and British Columbia data on production and exports reveals that the residual of production minus international exports for British Columbia is larger than the same residual for Canada. This implies that British Columbia must have exported additional quantities of cadmium abroad. Because of the lack of additional information about the destination of British Columbia Z&OSSL cadmium, i t has been assumed that cadmium has been exported abroad and to the Rest of Canada in the same proportion as the total Canadian 24 cadmium production for the years 1962 to 1964. In I96I exports through British Columbia customs ports coincided closely with the production data. TABLE 37 CADMIUM - CANADIAN PRODUCTION, EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE, 1962 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS AND PERCENTAGES) 1962 1963 1964 value percent value percent value percent Exports: a United States 1.270 26.8 1.376 27.8 1,328 14.8 United Kingdom 2.275 48.1 2,957 59.8 3.727 41.7 Other 70 1.4 124 1.4 1.156 12.9 Domestic Disappearance 1,116 23.7 484 11.0 2,739 30.6 Production b 4,731 100.0 4,941 100.0 8,950 100.0 a Canada, D.B.S., Export by Commodities, (Ottawa: annual). b Canada, D.B.S., General Review of Mining Industry, (Ottawa:annual). 99 TABLE 38 EXPORTS OF CADMIUM, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 a 1962 D 1963 b 1964 * Exports: United Kingdom 1,096 1,831 2,830 2,519 United States 195 1,055 1,310 894 Japan 6 — 90 75 European Economic Community — ... ... ... Rest of the World 53 703 Rest of Canada 155 901 524 1,84^  B. C. production c 1,452 3,840 4,754 6,0*K> — n i l or negligible. a Canada, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through  British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: 1961). D Based on data from Table 37 , page 9 8 . c British Columbia, Department of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 100 TABLE 39 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF CADMIUM? I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 1.1 1.8 2.8 2.5 United States .2 1.1 1.3 .9 Japan — - — .1 .1 European Economic Community — — — — Rest of the World — .1 .? Total Foreign 1.3 2.9 4.2 4.2 Rest of Canada .2 .9 .5 1.8 Total 1.5 3.8 4.8 6.0 n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. a C f . Appendix II, p. 97. 101. Exports of Sulphur In B r i t i s h Columbia sulphur i s recovered mainly from waste smelter gases in the form of sulphuric aeid. 2^ Exports of sulphur through the customs ports of British Columbia have been consistently greater than production as recorded in 26 the Report. In 1961 the difference was s t i l l slight but i n 1964 recorded exports 2? were four times as large as was recorded production. It follows that some of the exports through customs ports of Brit i s h Columbia must have originated i n another province. Indeed, the Railway st a t i s t i c s indicate considerable loadings of sulphur in Alberta with exports both to the United States and to the Rest of Canada. The largest importer of sulphur from Western Canada i s the United States. It has therefore been assumed that the total British Columbia production of sulphur i s exported to the United States. The estimate has an unknown upward bias because we have information that some unspecified quantity of sulphur has been sold to the Rest of Canada. Also, part of the production i n Br i t i s h Columbia may have been exported to other countries or sold within the Province. 102. TABLE kO BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF SULPHUR? I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom — - — — United States 3.2 2.9 3.7 3.9 Japan — — — — European Economic Community - — - — — Rest of the World — — — -Total Foreign 3.2 2.9 3.7 3.9 Rest of Canada •. .. . • • ... Total 3.2 2.9 3.7 3.9 — n i l or negligible. .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding aCf. Appendix II. p. 101. 103. Exports of Asbestos An examination of the Railway st a t i s t i c s reveals that additional exports of Br i t i s h Columbia asbestos enter the United States through customs ports of the other three Western provinces of Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. These exports have been added to the value of exports recorded i n the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. The Railway stati s t i c s have also been used to estimate exports of asbestos to the Rest of Canada. In order to convert the estimates of volume into estimates of value, unit prices from the Report 2 9 have been used. 104. TABLE 41 ASBESTOS - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND ADDITIONAL1 EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES , a 1961 - 1964 (IN TONS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 British Columbia: loadings 59,274 69,325 68,851 85,257 less unloadings 2,772 11,546 9,778 11,110 less deliveries to the U.S. 46,998 51,057 54,961 56,339 Estimated B.C. surplus 9,504 6,722 4,112 17,808 Deliveries to the U.S. from the four Western Provinces 51,359 53,397 57,912 57,425 Less B.C. deliveries to the U.S. 46,998 51,057 54.961 56,339 Estimated additional exports to the U.S. 4,361 2,340 2,951 1,086 Estimated B.C. surplus 9.504 6,722 4,112 17,808 Less estimated additional exports to the U.S. 4,36l 2,340 2,951 1,086 Estimated exports to the Rest of Canada 5,143 4,382 l , l 6 l 16,722 a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Traffic, (Ottawa: annual). 1 Via customs ports of Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. 105 TABLE 42 ASBESTOS - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND ADDITIONAL1 EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES , a 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Additional exports to the United States 800 438 547 I89 Exports to the Rest of Canada 987 820 215 2,919 a Based on Table 41 , page 104, and: Bri t i s h Columbia, Department of. Mines and Natural Resources, Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum  Resources, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 1 Via customs ports of Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan 106. TABLE 43 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF ASBESTOS* I96I - 1964, BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .9 1.2 .8 .5 United States 1.4 .9 1.1 .7 Japan .4 .5 .7 1.2 European Economic Community 2.3 2.7 2.1 1.0 Rest of the World 2.9 3.8 6.0 4.5 Total Foreign 7.9 9.1 10.6 7.9 Rest of Canada 1.0 .8 .2 2.9 Total 8.9 9.9 10.8 10.8 Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix II, pp. 103-105 107. Exports of Aluminum Aluminum i s produced at Kitimat in Northern British Columbia. A large part of the production i s shipped by boat to foreign countries, the remainder by r a i l to points within Canada. The Railway stat i s t i c s indicate considerable shipments of aluminum ingots and slabs to Eastern Canada but negligible unloadings i n , and exports via the provinces of Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The latter unloadings and exports are insignificant and have been omitted from the estimates. Unit prices calculated from the British Columbia Customs Ports data have been used to convert volume into value figures. 108. TABLE 44 ALUMINUM EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA 1961 - 1964 (VOLUME AND VALUE) 1961 1262 1963 1964 Net movements to Eastern Canada (in tons) a 15,350 54,818 67,920 63,874 Price per ton (in dollars) b 443.20 462.10 453.40 482.40 Value of exports to the Rest of Canada (in thousands of dollars) 6,803 25,331 30,795 30, a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Tr a f f i c , (Ottawa: annual). Unloadings i n Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are negligible and have been omitted from the calculations. D B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 109. TABLE 45 BRITISH COLOMBIA EXPORTS OF ALUMINUM AND ALUMINUM PRODUCTS*, 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 14.0 20.5 23.8 23.7 United States 5.9 6.1 10.1 4.6 Japan 9.9 2.3 7.9 10.3 European Economic Community 7.2 7.1 7.1 3.9 Rest of the World 14.9 16.2 14.7 14.9 Total Foreign 51.8 52.2 63.6 57.4 Rest of Canada 6.8 25.3 30.8 30.8 Total 58.7 77.5 94.3 88.2 Totals may not add due to rounding. Of. Appendix II, pp. 107' '-108 110. Exports of Gypsum Exports of Gypsum are not l i s t e d in the Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. The Railway st a t i s t i c s , however, indicate that some gypsum was delivered to united States railway connections. We have assumed that the data on railway freight t r a f f i c are correct and employed these stati s t i c s in estimating exports to the united States and to the Rest of Canada. For the conversion of volume figures into value, input prices from the Report3° have been used. 111. TABLE 46 GYPSUM - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSAND TONS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Loadings * 140 138 154 181 Less imports b 64 68 73 80 Loadings of B.C. o r i g i n * 76 70 81 101 Less deliveries to the U.S. a 12 8 16 18 Exports to the Rest of Canada 64 62 65 83 a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight T r a f f i c . (Ottawa: annual). Loadings includes imports at lake and ocean ports. It has been assumed that a l l unloadings i n the Province consist of imports. b B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 112. TABLE 47 GYPSUM - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND TO THE UNITED STATES,* I96I - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Exports to the Rest of Canada 192 186 195 415 Exports to the United States 48 24 48 90 a Based on data from Table 46 , page 111. Unit prices from: Bri t i s h Columbia, Department of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of  the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 113. TABLE 48 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF GYPSUM* I96I - I964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) United Kingdom United States Japan European Economic Community Rest of the World 1961 1962 1963 1964 Total Foreign — — - — .1 Rest of Canada .2 .2 .2 .4 Total .2 .2 .2 .5 — nil or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix II, pp. 110-112. 114. Exports of Crude O i l and Natural Gas The B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data, because of trans-shipments from Alberta to the United States, overestimate the exports of crude o i l as well as those of natural gas. However, the Report31 l i s t s the exports of crude o i l and natural gas which were produced in B r i t i s h Columbia. These exports are recorded i n tons of volume. Unit prices calculated from the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data have been applied to the volume figure to produce the required estimate of the value of exports. Exports of Coal and of Electric Energy For the years 1961 and 1962 the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data have been taken as an accurate indicator of exports of coal abroad. In these years recorded exports are slightly less than recorded production data. In I963 a*"* 1964, however, the situation i s reversed. This implies that coal which was not produced in British Columbia has been exported through B r i t i s h Columbia customs ports. To resolve this com-plication the export data have been adjusted to conform to the production data. It has been assumed that the total B r i t i s h Columbia production of coal was exported. The majority of exports went to Japan, and a smaller quantity to the United States. Recorded exports to Japan32 have been reduced so that the latter plus exports to the United States equalled the recorded production data.^3 Exports of electric energy to the United States were negligible i n the time period under consideration. 115. TABLE 49 CRUDE OIL - EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, 1961 - 1964 (VOLUME AND VALUE) 1961 1962 M l 1964 Exports a (in thousand bbl.) 679 1,146 943 Unit price b (in dollars per bbl.) 2.72 2.76 2.74 Exports to the U.S. (in thousands of dollars) — 1,847 3,163 2,584 - — n i l or negligible. a British Columbia, Dspartment of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). D B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 116 TABLE 50 NATURAL GAS - EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, 1961 - 1964 (VOLUME AND VALUE) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Exports a (in thousand M.C.F.) 6,697 80,447 76,246 83,725 Unit price D (in dollars per M.C.F.) .210 .214 .208 .235 Exports to the U.S., (in thousands of dollars) 1,406 17,216 15,859 19,675 a B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). D B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 117. TABLE 51 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF COAL? 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom — — — United States .2 .1 .1 .2 Japan 6.2 5.9 6.1 6.1 European Economic Community — - — - - — — Rest of the World Total Foreign 6.4 6.0 6.2 6.3 Rest of Canada — — — Total 6.4 6.0 6.2 6.3 — - n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. a Of. Appendix II, p. 114. 118 TABLE 52 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRIC ENERGY TO THE UNITED STATES, 1961 - 1964 (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) Crude Oil Natural Gas Electric Energy Total 1961 1962 —-- 1«8 1.4 17.2 .1 .1 1.5 19.0 I963 1964 3.2 2.6 15.9 19.7 .1 19.1 22.3 n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix II, pp. 114-115. This concludes our discussion on the estimates of exports of minerals and mineral products. The estimates as a whole are l i k e l y to contain an upward bias with respect to the estimates of exports to the Rest of Canada. This i s a direct consequence of our assumption that the residual of production minus estimated exports abroad has been exported to the Rest of Canada. In general, the assumption appears to be valid. Between I96I and 1964 B r i t i s h Columbia did not possess a metallurgical industry. However, we realize, justly, that some of the production may have been consumed in Brit i s h Columbia and secondly, that part of the estimated exports to the Rest of Canada may have been exported abroad through customs ports of other provinces. 120. ^B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). Hereafter referred to as M.M.P.R. 2 I b i d . 3canada, D.B.S., General Review of the Mining Industry, (Ottawa: annual). ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . 5R.F.T. ^B.C.C•P. ^Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company of Canada Ltd., 56th. 57th. 58th and 59th Annual Report. ^.M.P.R. 9Except for the aluminum smelter at Kitimat. l^We owe this information to Professor McQuiran, formerly of the University of Bri t i s h Columbia, now teaching at the University of Toronto. ^-Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company of Canada Ltd., op. c i t . 12M.M.P.R. !3The Report reveals that i n 1964, 88 per cent of the Bri t i s h Columbia copper production went to Japan i n the form of concentrates. Ibid. l 4 C f . Appendix V, page 205. ^Canada, D.B.S., Imports by Commodities, op. c i t . ^Canada, D.B.S., General Review of the Mining Industry, op. c i t . 17lbid. 121. 18M.M.P.R. -•-^ Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . 20 " -Canada, D.B.S., General Review of the "Mining Industry, op. c i t . 21 There has been no export of industrial gold from Canada except for gold contained in a l l types of ore, nickel-copper matte and platinum-polladium concentrates. Canada, D.B.S., General Review of the Mining  Industry, op. c i t . . page A-50. 22M.M.P.R., op c i t . 1964, page A-18. 23Eighty-one per cent in 1961. Canada, D.B.S., General Review  of the Mining Industry, op. c i t . ^Except for Japan, i n which case the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs  Ports data are presumed to be correct. 2 M^.M.P.R., op. c i t . 1964, page A-19. 2 6 I b i d . 27B.C.C.P. 2 8Cominco, 59th Annual Report. (1964), page 8. 29M.M.P.R. 3Qibid. ^ I b i d . ^B.C.C.P. 33M.M.P.R. 122. APPENDIX III EXPORTS OF MISCELLANEOUS PRODUCTS Exports of Fish Most commercial species of f i s h occur both i n the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean. Fortunately, the Trade of Canada s t a t i s t i c s 1 and some records on Canadian production 2 distinguish between f i s h caught i n the Pacific and f i s h caught in the Atlantic Ocean. With the help of these records i t was possible to determine directly the international exports of salmon, halibut, and herring meal and o i l . These species accounted i n value terms for more than 95 per cent of the total B r i t i s h Columbia production of f i s h i n 1961. To estimate the international exports for the remaining five per cent, the proxy method, discussed previously, has been employed.-^ In this case, the divergence between the Trade of Canada statistics'* and the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports s t a t i s t i c s ^ with respect to exports of salmon was taken as an indicator of the underestimation of international exports of other miscellaneous species of f i s h as l i s t e d i n the Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. The exports of f i s h and f i s h products to foreign countries have been estimated by species. Such estimates were not possible for exports to the Rest of Canada. Instead, exports to the Rest of Canada had to be estimated by combining a l l f i s h products and subtracting from the production data the previously obtained estimates on foreign exports as well as an estimate of the provincial disappear-ance. 124 TABLE 53 CALCULATION OF ADJUSTMENT FACTOR FOR THE EXPORTS OF MISCELLANEOUS FISH PRODUCTS 1, 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) (1) (2) (3) (4) (3) as Difference Proporti B.C.CP. a T. of C. b (2) - (1) of (1) United Kingdom 17,680 18,029 349 .019 United States 2,490 5,069 2,579 1.035 European Economic Community 7,824 8,524 700 .089 Rest of the World 6,004 6,681 677 .112 a British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). D Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, (Ottawa: annual). Based on the exports of salmon. 125 TABLE 54 ADJUSTMENTS OF EXPORTS OF MISCELLANEOUS FISH PRODUCTS, 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) Adjustment Adjusted B.C.C.P.a Factor b Exports United Kingdom 31 1.019 32 United States 1,742 2.035 3,545 E.E.C. 166 1.089 180 Rest of the World 35 1.112 39 a B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). D Table 53 , page 124. 126 TABLE 55 FISH PRODUCTS - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 I963 1964 B. C. Production a 78,757 100,057 80,114 97,940 Less foreign exports b 31,837 38,871 44,825 57,819 46,920 61,186 35,289 40,121 Less estimated B.C. Provincial dis-appearance c 8,946 11,279 10,166 10,024 Exports to the Rest of Canada 37,974 49,907 25,123 30,097 a Canada, D.B.S., Fisheries Statistics - British Columbia. (Ottawa: annual). b Table 50 , p a g e 30. c Table 10} page 209. 127 TABLE 56 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF SALMON* 19ol - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 United Kingdom 8.5 United States 6.8 Japan European Economic Community 2.7 Rest of the World 3.0 Total Foreign 21.0 Rest of Canada Total 1962 1963 1964 10.6 11.6 18.0 6.3 4.9 5.1 4.1 6.9 8.5 3.4 6.0 6.7 24.4 29.5 38.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. — - n i l or negligible. .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, pp. 122. :-126. 128. TABLE 57 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF HALIBUT? 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .6 .2 .5 »8 United States 5.3 6.1 4.9 4.7 European Economic Community — — — Rest of the World - — — Total Total Foreign 5.9 6.3 5.4 5.5 Rest of Canada •• •• •• ••• — n i l or negligible. .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. SCf. Appendix III, pp. 122-126, 129 TABLE 58 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF HERRING MEAL AND OIL* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .5 .6 .4 2.2 United States 3.3 4.8 6.4 7.1 Japan — — .3 — European Economic Community — - — — - .1 Rest of the World .1 .1 Total Foreign 3.8 5.5 7-1 9.4 Rest of Canada •• •• •• • * Total .. .* .* • • Totals may not add due to rounding. *Cf. Appendix III, pp. 122-126. — n i l or negligible. .. not applicable. 130. TABLE 59 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF OTHER FISH & FISH PRODUCTS? 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .1 — United States .8 2.4 2.3 3.5 Japan .1 .2 .6 .8 European Economic Community — — — .2 Rest of the World .1 — — — Total Total Foreign 1.1 2.7 2.9 4.6 Rest of Canada .. •• •• •• — n i l or negligible, .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, pp. 122-126. 131. Exports of Agricultural Products Probably no other sector in the Canadian economy has been researched and recorded as intensely as the agricultural sector. The Dominion Bureau of Statistics as well as the Departments of Agriculture i n the various provinces publish volumes of st a t i s t i c s concerned with nearly every aspect of agriculture. This, however, does not make our task easier. Nearly a l l of the published s t a t i s t i c s are irrelevant to the estimation of regional trade flows. Moreover, the few reports which l i s t export data on a regional basis diverge i n their estimates. To c l a r i f y and augment the available literature we have had personal interviewswith local repre-sentatives of the Federal Department of Agriculture. 0 Overall, these interviews proved useful. The major agricultural exports of British Columbia are apples and cattle. The B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data underestimate the former and probably overestimate the l a t t e r . The Railway s t a t i s t i c s 7 t e s t i f y to the underestimation of exports of apples. Considerable quantities of apples have been exported either to the United States via customs ports i n Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, or shipped to the Rest of Canada. The Railway stat i s t i c s have been used to estimate additional exports of apples to the united States and of apples and pears to the Rest of Canada. For other types of f r u i t the Railway st a t i s t i c s did not give a clear enough indication of shipments abroad or to the Rest of Canada. Instead we had to rely on the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. As a result, our data underestimate the true value of exports of f r u i t from B r i t i s h Columbia.8 132. While the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data underestimate the exports of f r u i t , there i s strong reason to suspect that they over-estimate the exports of cattle. The bias i s a result of trans-shipment of cattle from Alberta, an important exporter of Canadian cattle to the United States. Exports of B r i t i s h Columbia cattle and calves are also recorded by the Department of Agriculture. Their Annual Report9 l i s t s data on the inspection of B r i t i s h Columbia cattle and calves for exports by the l o c a l Health of Animals Office. The inspection data are con-sistently lower than the provincial customs ports data. I t has been assumed that the former are an accurate indicator of exports to the United States. For the estimation of exports of cattle to the Rest of Canada we have r e l i e d mainly on personal information from Mr. Ford, Head of the Livestock Branch of the Federal Department of Agriculture i n Vancouver. His interpretation of the o f f i c i a l data enabled us to attach a value to the number of cattle l i s t e d i n the Annual Report 1^ for exports to the Rest of Canada, For an estimate of international exports of agricultural products other than the commodities discussed above we had to depend on the British Columbia Customs Ports data. The exports of commodities thus estimated, however, comprised less than twenty per cent of the exports of agricultural commodities, amounting to 4.0 million dollars i n 1961. Overall, the existing sources of information are insufficiently detailed to permit any judgment on the magnitude of the error incurred by relying on the Customs Ports data. 133. TABLE 60 APPLES - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND ADDITIONAL 1 EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES * 1961 - 1964 (IN TONS) 1961 Rail deliveries to the U.S. from the four Western Provinces 13,479 Less r a i l deliveries to the U.S. from B r i t i s h Columbia 3,297 Additional exports to the United States 10,182 1962 1963 1964 11,277 22,531 18,062 3,389 5,320 4,817 7,888 17,211 13,245 Unloadings i n the four Western Provinces 40,701 42,554 46,946 41,976 Less unloadings i n B.C. 2 11,082 11,50.6 11,924 9,160 29,619 31,048 35,022 32,816 Plus net movements to Eastern Canada 7,176 5,458 15,660 27,569 Exports to the Rest of Canada 36,795 36,506 50,682 60,385 a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight T r a f f i c , (Ottawa: annual). 1 Via customs ports of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. 2 It has been assumed that B.C. imports are unloaded i n the Province. Rail deliveries from the U.S. to the provinces of Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are negligible and have been omitted from the calculations. 134. TABLE 61 APPLES - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 Exports to the U.S. a 1,863 Estimated additional exports to the U.S. b 2,049 Total exports to the U.S. 3,912 Exports to the Rest of Canada b 6,146 1962 1963 1964 2,403 2,862 2,114 1,557 3,011 2,061 3,960 5,873 4,175 6,536 8,473 9,044 a B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.; annual). b Ibid., and data from Table 60 t page 133. TABLE 62 135. PEARS - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND ADDITIONAL 1 EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, a 1961 - 1964 (IN TONS) 1961 1962 • 1963 1964 Rail deliveries to the U.S. from the four Western Provinces 1,142 434 3,688 1,725 Less r a i l deliveries to the U.S. from British Columbia 129 142 536 217 Additional exports to the United States 1,013 292 3,152 1,508 Unloadings i n the four v Western Provinces 4,903 4,471 6,270 4,505 Less unloadings i n B.C. 197 36 706 1,009 4,706 4,435 5,564 3,496 Plus net movement to Eastern Canada 1,666 1,974 5,356 4,620 Exports to the Rest of Canada 6,3?2 6,409 10,920 8,116 a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Tr a f f i c , (Ottawa: annual). 1 Via customs ports i n Alberta, Manitoba,and Saskatchewan. It has been assumed that B.C. Imports are unloaded i n the Province. Rail deliveries from the U.S. to the Provinces of Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are negligible and have been omitted from the calculations. 136 TABLE 63 FEARS - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA AND ADDITIONAL 1 EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, 1961 - 1 9 6 4 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Unit prices (in dollars , , per ton) 100.06 c 99*91 c I87.78 168.64 0 Additional exports to the United States a 101 29 592 254 Exports to the Rest of Canada*- 638 640 2,051 1,369 a Table 62 , p a g e 135. b B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Agriculture, Annual Report, (Victoria, B.C.: annual), mimeographed. c B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 1 Via customs ports i n Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. 137. TABLE 64 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF APPLES* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.4 United States 3.9 4.0 5.9 4.2 European Economic Community - — .1 .2 Rest of the World .2 .3 .3 .6 Total Foreign 5.9 6.1 7.3 6.4 Rest of Canada 6.1 6.5 8.5 9.0 Total 12.0 12.6 15.8 15.4 — n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, pp. 131 -139. 138 TABLE 65 CATTLE - EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES , a 1961 - 1964 (VOLUME AND VALUE) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Number of heads inspected for export 21,072 27,694 16,156 7,280 Value of exports (in thousands of dollars) 3,233 4,558 2,551 1,387 a Data on Inspection for Exports of B.C. Cattle and Calves by loc a l Health of Animals Office. Annual Report of the Department of Agriculture, Livestock Production and Marketing, (Vancouver: annual), mimeographed. 139 TABLE 66 CATTLE - EXPORTS TO THE REST OF CANADA ,a 1961 - 1964 (VOLUME AND VALUE) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Total number of head exported 27,241 43.871 43,438 49.875 Number of calves exported 1 10,896 17,548 17.375 19,950 Number of cows exported 16,345 26,323 26,063 29,925 Weight of calves 2 exported (in c.w.t.) 43,584 70,192 69.500 79,800 Weight of cows 3 exported (in c.w.t.) 138,933 223,745 221,535 254,362 Value per c.w.t.: calves 4 (in dollars) 22.75 25.95 23.20 19.70 Value per c.w.t.: cows 4 (in dollars) 19.00 21.75 21.05 19.35 Value (in thousands of dollars): calves exported 991 1,821 1,612 1.572 cows exported 2,639 4,866 4,663 4,922 Value of exports of cattle to the Rest of Canada (in thousands of dollars) 3,630 6,687 6,275 6,494 a Personal interview with Mr. H. Ford, Canada, Department of Agriculture, Vancouver, B.C. 1 Forty per cent of total number of heads. 2 400 lbs. per head. 3 850 lbs. per head. 4 Calgary stockyard prices. 140. TABLE 6? BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF LIVE ANIMALS* 196l - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom — — — United States 3.2 4.5 2.6 1.5 Japan — — - — - — European Economic Community — .1 — Rest of the World — - — Total Foreign 3.2 4.6 2.6 1.5 Rest of Canada 3.6 6.7 6.3 6.5 Total 6.9 11.3 8.8 8.0 — n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, pp. 131-139. 141. TABLE 68 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF OTHER FRUIT: FRESH AND FROZEN* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom — - .1 .1 United States .7 .9 1.7 1.1 Japan --- ——- —— — European Economic Community — — — Rest of the World .1 .2 1.0 Total Foreign .7 1.1 2.0 2.1 Rest of Canada .6 .6 2.0 1.4 Total 1.2 1.7 4.0 3.5 — - n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. a Cf. Appendix I I I , pp. I3I-I39. 142 TABLE 69 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF MEAT? I96I - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .2 .4 .8 United States 1.3 1.1 «7 .8 Japan - — — - — — European Economic Community — — — — Rest of the YJorld .1 .3 .3 .3 Total Total Foreign 1.5 1.6 1.5 2«° Rest of Canada •• »• .. .. — n i l or negligible, not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. a, Cf. Appendix III, pp. I3I-I39, TABLE 7 0 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS* 1 9 6 1 - I 9 6 V BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 4 United Kingdom . 2 . 5 1 . 0 . 9 United States 2 . 0 1 . 1 2 . 0 3 . 0 Japan . 4 . 2 .8 . 5 European Economic Community . 1 . 6 2 . 0 3 . 3 Rest of the World — .8 2 . 2 1 . 6 Total Foreign 2 . 6 3 . 2 8 . 0 9 . 3 Rest of Canada — — . mmrnrnm Total 2 . 6 3 . 2 8 . 0 9 . 3 — n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. Cf. Appendix III, pp. 131 144. Exports of Miscellaneous Products Miscellaneous products may be defined as a l l those commodities which; a) did not f i t into any of the previously discussed export categories, b) were i n terms of value too small to warrant special con-sideration, c) have been marked with an asterik i n the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data indicating that these exports originated wholly or mainly i n the Province, and d) were not l i s t e d i n any other publication recording exports from British Columbia. The definition implies that for these commodities we had to depend only on the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. The estimates have been grouped according to the broad divisions found i n the Customs  Ports data. It i s nearly impossible to evaluate the accuracy of the estimates. The absence of other sources of information forces us to accept these st a t i s t i c s as f i n a l estimates. However, the value of exports included in this category i s only a fraction of the total value of exports. 145. TABLE 71 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF FOOD, FEED, BEVERAGES, AND TOBACCO* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom — — United States 6.8 7.1 7.4 8.5 Japan 1.8 2.0 2.7 2.4 European Economic Community - — — — - — Rest of the World — — .5 .6 Total Foreign 8.6 9.1 10.6 11.5 Rest of Canada 29.4 24.8 37.5 39.5 Total 38.0 33.9 46.1 51.0 — - n i l or negligible. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, p. 144. 146 TABLE 72 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF FABRICATED MATERIALS, INEDIBLE* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .2 .1 .1 .5 United States .7 .9 2.5 2.7 Japan .1 .1 .1 1*7 European Economic Community .4 .6 .1 1.7 Rest of the World 1.2 1.3 .7 .7 Total Foreign 2.6 3.0 3.5 7.3 Total .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, p. 144. 147. TABLE 73 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF ENDPRODJCTS, INEDIBLE* 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .1 .1 .1 .2 United States 2.4 3.0 5.0 7.3 Japan — — .4 .6 European Economic Community .1 .1 .1 .4 Rest of the VJorld 3.8 4.0 7.6 4.9 Total Foreign 6.4 7.2 13.2 13.4 Rest of Canada .. •« •• • • Total »» •» »» ** — - n i l or negligible. .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, p. 144. 148. TABLE 74 BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTS OF CRUDE MATERIALS, INEDIBLEf 1961 - 1964 BY MAJOR MARKET AREAS (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1?61 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .7 .9 1.5 1.5 United States 27.3 28.6 23.5 24.5 Japan .7 1.1 7.0 8.6 European Economic Community .5 .6 •9 .7 Rest of the World 4.2 3.0 4.7 4.4 Total Foreign 33.4 34.2 37.6 39.7 Rest of Canada • • • • • • Total • • • • • • * • .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. aCf. Appendix III, p. 144. 149. •'•Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . ^Canada, D.B.S., Fisheries Statistics - Canada. (Ottawa: annual). Also: Canada, D.B.S., Fisheries Statistics - Bri t i s h Columbia. (Ottawa: annual). 3chapt er II, page 16. ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, pp. c i t . ^B.C.C.P. ^Canada, Department of Agriculture, Vancouver, B.C. 7R.F.T. ®The Railway st a t i s t i c s reveal that every year approximately 10,000 tons of fresh f r u i t , n.o.s., of Bri t i s h Columbia origin are unloaded i n the Rest of Canada. Because of the d i f f i c u l t y of evaluating a conglomerate such as fresh f r u i t , n.o.s., we had to omit i t from the calculations. A very rough estimate may be made by attaching the unit price of apples to the shipments. The value of these exports would then amount to roughly 1.7 million dollars. ^Canada, Department of Agriculture, Annual Report. (Vancouver, B.C.: annual), mimeographed. lOjbid. 150. APPENDIX IV COMMODITY IMPORTS Consumer Goods Direct estimation of the value of consumption goods at pro-ducer's prices which are sold in British Columbia do not exist and we were forced to estimate i t s value with the help of other sources of information* An estimate of r e t a i l sales later deflated and expressed in producer's prices suggests i t s e l f immediately as a potential method. Estimates of Retail Sales; Two estimates of British Columbia r e t a i l trade are available: yearly estimates 1 and the 1961 Census data. The former are arranged by kind of business, the latter by kind of business and type of commodity. By combining the two sources the value of the majority of consumer goods sold at the r e t a i l level could be estimated. Estimates of automobile, cigarette, and liquor sales had to be based on separate sources of data.. The f i r s t step i n the analysis consisted of estimating the 3 value of r e t a i l sales i n Br i t i s h Columbia from the 1961 Census data, in particular, Table 23 of the data which represents the percentage distribution of sales as well as total sales for each of forty-seven kinds of business (but only for the panel of reporting establishments). The value of yearly sales of each commodity for each of the forty-seven kinds of business was obtained by applying the given percentage d i s t r i -bution to the given t o t a l sales i n each business. The second step i n the calculations was to extend the 1961 data to the following years. This has been accomplished with the help of yearly sales estimates of the Retail Trade.^ The latter estimates are l i s t e d by type of business only. The classification used i n Retail Trade i s significantly different from that used in the Census data. The former employs only twenty categories i n contrast to the forty-seven employed by the Census data. The problem of matching the two sets of data was solved by calculating from the yearly Retail Trade estimates the percentage increase in sales over that of the preceding year for each of the twenty cate-gories.^ By matching similar establishments from both sets of data, the percentage increases have been applied to the Census data. It has been assumed, for example, that the percentage increase i n sales for "General" as calculated from the Retail Trade estimates can serve as an appropriate indicator of the yearly increase in sales for "General stores" and "General merchandise stores" as l i s t e d i n the Census data. The resulting estimates represent yearly r e t a i l sales by types of establish-ment and commodities for the years 1962 and 1963.^ At this point, i t must be remembered that the Census data u t i l i z e d u n t i l now are not an estimate of total r e t a i l sales i n British Columbia but refer only to the total sales of the panel of reporting establishments. The estimates of total r e t a i l sales i n the province are l i s t e d in the same publication, in a separate table, and are arranged by type of commodity and kind of business.? 152. A comparison of the two sets of data showed that total r e t a i l sales based on information supplied by the panel of reporting firms under-estimate total r e t a i l sales of a l l establishments i n the province by 11.8 per cent. In order to arrive at an estimate of total store sales by commodity group, the result of the previous calculations arranged by types of business and commodity, were regrouped into commodity groups for a l l three years. 8 This resulted in a classification system which was identical to the classification presented i n the table on estimated total r e t a i l sales. 9 By comparing the total value of sales of commodity groups derived from the panel of reporting establishments with that based on total r e t a i l sales in the Province, the underestimation contained i n the former could be determined for each commodity group for 1961. Finally, the commodity groups were adjusted upward according to the degree of underestimation established above.^ The calculations yielded estimates of total r e t a i l sales in Bri t i s h Columbia for the years 1961 to 1963 arranged by commodity groups. 1 1 For the purpose of this paper, however, the estimates require further manipulation. More precisely, the estimates expressed in r e t a i l prices must be converted to producer's prices. TABLE 75 153. BRITISH COLUMBIA RETAIL SALES BY COMMODITY CLASSES, 1961 - 1963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 a 1?62 b 1963 b Food and kindred products 406,725 423,826 444,077 Automotive group 366,685 n.e. n.e. Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings 62,503 68,204 72,160 Women's, misses' and children's clothing 113,469 120,970 127,798 Footwear 35.394 37.495 39,390 Dry goods, notions and smallwares 28,559 30,473 32,411 Hardware 22 , l6 l 23,677 25,192 Paints, varnishes, wallpaper, and glass 7,742 8,158 8,546 Furniture 35,852 38,161 40,738 Household appliances 33,003 35,088 37,393 Radios, record players, and television sets 17,095 18,204 19,424 Musical instruments, records and access. 10,723 11,378 12,l6l Lamps, li g h t bulbs, fixtures, wiring, fuses, etc. 3,307 3,423 3,747 Household supplies 34,722 36,371 38,309 House furnishings 24,796 26,224 28,099 Drugs and drug sundries 50,472 52,947 55,318 Fuel 26,537 27,866 28,123 Flowers 5,342 n.e. n.e. Luggage and leather goods 2,368 2,517 2,683 Cigars, cigarettes and tobacco 29,964 31,182 32,477 Paper, paper products and related supplies 21,562 22,633 23,685 Cameras and photographic equipment 7,501 7,803 8,048 Jewellery, silverware, clocks, and watches 20,179 20,963 21,500 Sporting and recreation equipment 20,509 21,806 23,248 Alcoholic beverages 101,207 n.e. n.e. Toys and games 6,429 6,828 7.271 Farm and garden machinery, equipment, and supplies 11,038 11,976 12,857 Office and store equipment and furniture 461 n.e. n.e. Heating and plumbing supplies 3,931 I c 1^0 \ L FT^, Building materials, a l l kinds 2,119 \ * I * * Receipts from the sale of meals and lunches 6,725 7,186 7,507 Receipts from repairs and services 54,471 59,448 63,565 Miscellaneous merchandise 51.152 54,035 56.590 1,624,703 n.e. not estimated. .. not applicable. a Canada, D.B.S., 1961 Census of Canada, Vol. VI. Part 1, Establish- ment^ Analysis of Sales by Commodity, (Ottawa; i960). b Ibid., and Canada, D.B.S., Retail Trade, (Ottawa: annual). Conversion of the r e t a i l sales estimates to estimates valued at  producer's prices; The mark up for a specific commodity may be estimated by subtracting for the commodity the value of the Canadian domestic disappearance from the estimated value of the r e t a i l sales. In practise, 12 this method proved unsuccessful. The cause for the failure i s to be found in the definition of the data. In the f i r s t place, figures on production are based on the establishment concept. In the second place, the classification employed in the export and import stat i s t i c s differs from that employed in the production data. Information on purchase and sales prices provided by retailers constitutes an alternate method of determining the mark up. Efforts to obtain such information proved successful. A province-wide department store agreed to supply information on purchase costs and average mark up for nearly a l l items carried by the s t o r e . ^ The information included the average mark up for broad commodity classes with separate l i s t i n g s for goods of Canadian, American and foreign origin. An average mark up for a l l goods within a given commodity class regardless of the origin of  the commodity was obtained by calculating the weighted average of the average mark ups within the commodity class. A closer look at the department store figure revealed two deficiencies: The data were neither complete, nor were they classified i n a manner which permitted their direct application to the previously calculated estimates of total r e t a i l sales. In an effort to offset the incompleteness of the data i t has been assumed that other commodity categories not contained in the data 155 TABLE ?6 DEPARTMENT STORE MARK UPS FOR CONSUMER GOODS OF CANADIAN, AMERICAN,AND FOREIGN ORIGIN a Weighted1 Canadian. American Foreign Average Women's fashions 40.4 48.2 45.9 41.1 Men's and boys' clothing 38.4 38.5 45.8 38.7 Infants' and children's 37.8 clothing 37.3 47.2 45.2 A l l shoes 41.4 44.6 44.4 41.6 Textiles 38.4 38.9 42.8 39.0 Major appliances 31.7 36.8 32.8 31.5 Minor appliances 37.1 45.7 55.4 38.3 Furniture 38.7 42.2 46.0 39.4 a A l l data supplied confidentially by nation-wide department store, (Vancouver, B.C.: 1964). 1 Weighted by the amount of sales 156. have a mark up similar to the mark up of the l i s t e d categories. An average of the l i s t e d mark ups was calculated and applied to the estimated total r e t a i l sales of commodity categories not l i s t e d in the department store data. The classification of the department store data into a few broad categories required the regrouping of the r e t a i l sales estimates into similar categories. Only then did i t prove feasible to deflate the r e t a i l sales estimate into estimates of sales of consumer goods at producer's prices. Implicit Assumptions and Sources of Error: Before discussing the next steps i n the calculation of the estimates a few words should be said about the assumptions implicit i n the use of department store data in deflating the r e t a i l sales estimates. In the f i r s t place the method assumes that the mark up used by the department store i s applicable throughout the province. Provided that the r e t a i l businesses engage in active price competition, the assumption i s valid. With some exceptions active price competition appears to be practised i n the r e t a i l trade and the assumption i s acceptable. In the second place i t has been implicitly assumed that the department store purchases i t s products directly from the producer, not the wholesaler. Because of the large volume purchases made by a province-wide department store this assumption should also hold true. Finally, the estimation procedure assumes that a l l other stores in the province s e l l the same proportion of American and foreign goods as this department store. Very l i k e l y this assumption i s not 157. valid. A personal interview with the representative of a second department store disclosed that the store over the past years has been pursuing an active purchasing policy with respect to imported goods, attending international f a i r s and v i s i t i n g manufacturers of consumer goods throughout the world. Such aggressive purchasing behaviour i s no doubt beyond the financial and organizational capabilities of smaller firms which rely on wholesale and franchised dealers for information on imported goods. Moreover, the proportion of imported goods sold i s probably higher in the large urban centres which contain a larger proportion of immigrants, than in the rural d i s t r i c t s . The higher mark up customary for imported goods in combination with the considerations above implies that the estimated mark up for the included commodity groups has an upward bias. However, the error introduced i s insignificant as a result of small weights attached to American and foreign imports in the calculation of the average mark up. Customs and excise duties which are included i n the purchase costs of imported goods introduce an additional error into the estimates. In principle, both kinds of duties should be removed from the department store data before computing the weighted average mark up for each category of goods. It was f e l t , however, that the cost of calculating the proportion of duties for each category would be formidable while the effect of removing the duties from the data would be marginal. The inclusion of the customs and excise duties implies an upward bias in the average mark ups. The preceding discussion on the assumptions and possible bias of the estimates leads to two additional considerations, namely the 158. influence of transportation costs on, and the removal of the manufacturing tax from the estimates. The influence of transportation costs on the accuracy of the estimates i s easy to describe but d i f f i c u l t to calculate. In principle, a l l costs incurred during transport should be subtracted from the purchase costs i f these costs are borne by/ the manufacturer. Generally, this would be the case. The real d i f f i c u l t y does not l i e i n assigning the costs but i n the calculation of the costs. These depend on distance, made of transportation, type of commodity and size of shipment. Because of the d i f f i c u l t i e s involved i n the computation of the transport costs as a proportion of the purchasing cost for individual commodity groups, no attempt has been made to estimate these costs. This, of course, implies an upward bias i n the estimate of the value of consumer goods at producer's prices as well as an upward bias in the estimates of imports from the Rest of Canada.1'* So far we have not yet considered the removal of the manufacturing tax from the estimates.^ The calculations may be simplified by combining the estimated mark ups with the value of the manufacturing tax and subtracting both from the r e t a i l estimates i n a single operation. Combining the estimated mark up and the manufacturer's tax we may calculate the value of consumption goods at producer's price from the formula: 1^ 159. P_ = P ' ' .1  p (1.11 + 1.11 m) where: Pp = producer's price P r = r e t a i l price m = mark up as a percentage of the retailer's purchase price .11 = manufacturing tax The application of this formula to the r e t a i l sales estimates f i n a l l y resulted in the desired estimate of the value of consumer goods at producer's prices. In order to arrive at an estimate of imports from the Rest of Canada, production, imports and exports of consumption goods had to be calculated. Data on the value of production of consumer goods are contained in the stati s t i c s on manufacturing a c t i v i t y . ^ The small size of the firms as well as the industry as a whole led us to assume that the total output of consumer goods produced i n the Province i s also consumed in the Province. In general, the assumption should be valid for most firms within the industry.1® If the assumption i s not valid, imports from the Rest of Canada w i l l have been underestimated. Foreign Imports: In the calculation of imports from abroad i t has been assumed, with one exception,^9 that the data on imports of goods l i s t e d in the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data provide an accurate measurement of foreign imports into the province. Alternately, i t may be assumed that trans-shipments of imports to points outside British Columbia 160. are offset by foreign imports which are consumed in B r i t i s h Columbia but have entered Canada through the customs ports of other provinces. The B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data reveal that only negligible quantities of consumption goods have been exported through the Province's customs p o r t s . ^ Exports to the Rest of Canada: By subtracting from the estimate of consumption' the estimates of production and imports but adding the estimate of exports, the desired estimates of the imports of consumption goods from the Rest of Canada were obtained. TABLE 77 WOMEN'S AND CHILDREN* S CLOTHING - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 B. C. r e t a i l sales valued at producer's prices a 73,755 78.631 83,069 Less B.C. production b 5.407 6,777 7.058 Plus foreign exports c 239 397 383 Less foreign imports d 4.974 4,521 3,817 Imports from the Rest of Canada 63.613 67,730 72,577 a Based on Table 75 , page 153, and Table76 , page 155. b Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada; British  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa; annual). c B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.; annual). Includes men's and boys' clothing. Appendix V, page 218. 162. TABLE 78 MEN'S AND BOYS' CLOTHING - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 B. C. r e t a i l sales valued at producer's prices a 40,627 44,333 46,904 Less B.C. production b 6,829 7,518 8,720 Plus foreign exports c .. .. Less foreign imports d 2,679 2,435 2,056 Imports from the Rest of Canada 31,119 34,380 36,128 .. not applicable. a Based on Table 75 , page 153 , and Table 76 , page 155. b Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada; Bri t i s h  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa; annual). c Included under women's and children's clothing. d Appendix V, page 218. 163 TABLE 79 FOOTWEAR - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, I96I - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 B. C. r e t a i l sales valued at producer's prices a 23,006 24,372 25,604 Less B.C. production D 662 717 769 Plus foreign exports c — — — Less foreign imports c 2,909 3,247 3,222 Imports from the Rest of Canada 19,435 20,408 21,613 — n i l or negligible. a Based on Table 75 , page 153, and Table 76 , page 155. b Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: Bri t i s h  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa: annual). c B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statements of External Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 164. TABLE 80 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, I96I - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 l ? i l B.C. r e t a i l sales valued at producer's prices a 22,112 Less B.C. production D 6,173 Plus foreign esxports c — Less foreign imports ° 5»259 Imports from the Rest of Canada 10,680 23,510 5.768 4,605 13,137 25.053 8,254 3,473 13,326 n i l or negligible. a Based on Table 75 , page 153 , and Table 76 , page 155. b Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: British  Columbia. Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa: annual). c B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports. (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 165. TABLE 81 FURNITURE, RADIO AND TELEVISION, MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS AND RECORDS - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, I96I - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) B.C. r e t a i l sales valued at producer's prices a Less B.C. production b Plus foreign exports c Less foreign imports c Imports from the Rest of Canada 1961 41,386 21,654 9,458 10,2?4 1?62 45,333 21,992 9,113 14,228 1963 47,010 23,867 7,650 15,493 - — n i l or negligible. a Based on Table 75 , page 153, and Table 76 , page 155. D Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: Bri t i s h  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa: annual). 0 B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 9 166 TABLE 82 PIECE GOODS, BEDDING AND HOUSE LINENS, DRAPERY, UPHOLSTERY AND CURTAINS - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 B.C. retail sales valued at producer's prices a Less B.C. production D Plus foreign exports c Less foreign imports c Imports from the Rest of Canada 18,94? 1.699 12,386 4,862 20,194 1,475 11,941 6,778 21,554 1,576 11,994 7,984 — n i l or negligible. a Based on Table 75 , page 153 , and Table 76 , page 155. b Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada; British Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa; annual). c British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.; annual). 167. TABLE 83 OTHER 1 RETAIL GOODS - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, I96I - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) B.C. Retail sales valued at producer's prices a Less B.C. production b Plus foreign exports c Less foreign imports c Imports from the Rest of Canada 1961 217.514 12,106 32,793 172,615 1962 231,869 12,432 31,467 187.970 1963 245,367 15,285 37,710 192,372 — n i l or negligible. a Based on Table 75 , page 153, and Table 76 , page 155. b Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: Bri t i s h  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa: annual). c B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia JQtstomsTorts, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 1 Includes: Notions and smallware; hardware and powertools; paints, varnishes, wallpaper, glass, lig h t bulbs, fixtures, wiring, lamps, household supplies; floor coverings and other house furnishings; drugs and sundry medicines; luggage and leather goods; cameras and photographic equipment; jewellery; auto parts, accessories, batteries, t i r e s ; sporting and recreation equipment; toys and games; heating, plumbing, and building supplies; miscellaneous merchandise. 168. Food Products 2 1 The estimation of the total value of r e t a i l sales of food products followed the procedure outlined for consumer goods. Personal interviews with the managers of several food chain stores established the average mark up between producer and retailer in the industry." According to our informants, the average mark up i s 10 per cent from the producer to the wholesaler and 15 per cent from the wholesaler to the r e t a i l e r . 2 ^ These two mark ups have been sub-tracted from the previously calculated estimates of r e t a i l sales of food products i n the Province yielding an estimate of the consumption of food products valued at producer's prices. From the latter estimate the value of food products produced in the Province has been subtracted. The production of food products included a number of items such as the value of shipments of feed manufacturers which had to be subtracted from the total value of shipments." The sub category "Total, Other Industries" included the output of d i s t i l l e r i e s . Assisted by other sources of information i t proved feasible to separateithe-value of the latter from the data. 25 Finally, an estimate of exports and imports of food products was collected from the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. Exports which originate mainly i n B r i t i s h Columbia are designated with an asterik i n the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. It has been assumed that these designations are correct and exports of food products thus desig-nated have been counted as exports from B r i t i s h Columbia. In addition, i t has been assumed that a l l imports through customs ports of the Province were consumed i n B r i t i s h Columbia. 169. After completion of the calculations i t became apparent that B r i t i s h Columbia had been a net exporter of food products to the Rest of Canada for the years 196l to I963. However, i t has been assumed in the calculations that imports of food products from the Rest of Canada have been negligible. Should that assumption not be valid the value of exports of food products to the Rest of Canada would even be higher. Imports of Fresh Fruit and Vegetables; In 1961 imports of fresh f r u i t and vegetables were valued at 19,949 million dollars. 2? However, some of these shipments were in trans-shipment to other parts of Canada. For identifiable products the proportion of total imports which 28 was i n trans-shipment was 60.6 per cent. This proportion should be significantly lower for items which are also produced i n the importing provinces. The exact proportion of a l l f r u i t and vegetables could not be calculated from the available data. However, by taking advantage of the available data on consumption, production, and exports, a more precise method of estimating imports has been developed. Under the assumption that imports from the Rest of Canada are negligible, the already estimated consumption of fresh f r u i t and vegetables (valued at producer's prices) plus estimated exports must be equal to the value of production plus the value of imports from abroad. Thus, the value of imports from abroad has been calculated as residual. To this an estimate of imports for 29 processing has been added. The r e l i a b i l i t y of the estimates depends on the accuracy with which the other three components in the estimation procedure have been estimated. The estimates on exports probably have a downward bias. This implies that the estimates of imports from abroad also contain downward bias. 171 TABLE 84 PRODUCTION OF FOOD PRODUCTS 1 IN BRITISH COLUMBIA , a 1961 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) Food and beverage industries, total 413,699 Less feed manufacturers 28,443 Less f i s h product industry 72,870 Plus B.C. consumption of f i s h products at producer's prices D 8,946 Less breweries 23,336 Less wineries and d i s t i l l e r i e s 0 20,092 B. C. production of food products 277,902 . a Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada; British  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa; annual). b Based on Table 103 , page 209. c Based on Table 1°5, page 214. 1 Excludes fresh f r u i t and vegetables 172 TABLE 85 FOOD PRODUCTS 1 IMPORTS FROM ABROAD AND IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - 1963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) B. C. r e t a i l sales valued at producer's prices a Less B.C. production b Plus exports abroad c Less imports from abroad c Imports from the Rest of Canada 1961 287,341 277,902 9,439 2,942 12,381 41,751 -29,370 1962 299,614 288,815 10,799 3,315 14,114 38,897 -24,783 1963 313,815 310,747 3,068 6,064 9,132 46,621 -37,489 a Based on Table 75 , page 153, and Table 76 , page 155. b Based on Table 84 , page 171. c British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 1 Excludes fresh f r u i t and vegetables. 173 TABLE 86 IMPORTS OF FRESH FRUIT AND VEGETABLES, 1961 - 1963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 B. C. consumption at producer's prices a 15,846 16,436 17,269 Plus exports b 14,911 17,291 18,391 30,757 33,727 35.660 Less production c 18,083 19,496 20,510 Imports for consumption 12,674 14,231 15,150 Plus imports for processing d 1,504 1,688 1,818 Total imports 14,178 15,919 16,968 a Based on Table 75 , page 153, and Table 76 .page 155. D B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). c Excludes production for processing and canning. Br i t i s h Columbia, Department of Agriculture, Markets and Statistics Branch, Agricultural Statistics Report, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). d Cf". Appendix V, page 212. Imports for processing are included under imports of industrial materials. 174. Other Consumer Goods Tobacco Products: Foreign imports and exports are non-existent on the provincial level and negligible on the national level.30 Thus* a l l tobacco products consumed in Br i t i s h Columbia must have been imported from the Rest of Canada. The value of these imports may then be estimated from the data on Canadian shipments of tobacco products. It has been assumed that the consumption of cigarettes i s a function of disposable income. The value of total shipments of tobacco products i n Canada has been multiplied by the value of provincial disposable income as a fraction of Canadian disposable income, yielding an estimate of consumption of tobacco products for the Province at producer's prices.-^ -Alcoholic Beverages: The available information on the production, sale, exports and imports of alcoholic beverages was i n s u f f i -cient to determine their exports to and imports from the Rest of Canada. It was, however, given certain assumptions, possible to estimate the balance of trade with the Rest of Canada.-^2 According to these estimates, Br i t i s h Columbia i s a net exporter of alcoholic beverages. It must be stressed that these figures represent the minimum value of exports of alcoholic beverages to the Rest of Canada. The existence of a certain value of imports w i l l give r i s e to an equal increase i n exports. For an estimate of foreign exports and imports the British Columbia Customs Ports data have been employed. TABLE 8? ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 175. Value of purchases by the B.C. Liquor Control Board a Less taxes collected by the Federal Government ° Plus exports abroad Less foreign imports Less B.C. production d 1961 69,522 28,412 41,110 Less value of manufacturing tax 1 4,111 36,999 6,654 43,653 2,827 40,826 43,428 Imports from the Rest of Canada - 2,602 1962 73,740 29,392 44,348 4,435 39.913 7,143 47,056 2,846 44,210 45,165 - 955 1963 79,375 31,482 47,893 4,789 43,104 7,383 50,487 2,624 47,863 48,602 - 739 a British Columbia, B r i t i s h Columbia Liouor Control Board, Annual Report, (Victoria, B.C.Vannual)'. ' ~ b Canada, D.B.S., Control and Sale of Alcoholic Beverages i n Canada, (Ottawa: annual). c British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). d Table 105, page 214. 1 Eleven per cent of the value of production. 176. Passenger Cars: The Dominion Bureau of Statistics publishes data on the number and r e t a i l value of passenger cars sold in the 33 provinces. The data are subdivided into sales of Canadian and United States cars, and sales of overseas cars. Unfortunately, information on the mark up between the producer and the retailer of passenger cars could not be obtained and a different method of estimating the imports of passenger cars from the Rest of Canada had to be found. The alter-native chosen consisted of computing from the data on the.value of r e t a i l sales of Canadian and United States passenger cars the ratio of cars sold i n the Province to cars sold i n Canada. By applying this ratio to the value of shipments of Canadian passenger cars, an estimate of the value of Br i t i s h Columbia sales of Canadian passenger cars at producer's prices has been obtained.3^ This method assumes that the Canadian ratio i s applicable to Br i t i s h Columbia.35 With respect to foreign imports i t has been assumed that the Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data are an accurate reflection of true imports. 17? TABLE 88 PASSENGER GARS - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 Shipments for sale i n Canada a 641,228 871,792 1,121,261 B.C. sales of U.S. and Canadian cars, a proportion of Canadian sales b .06129 .07456 .07912 Imports from the Rest of Canada c 39,301 65,001 88,714 a Canada, D.B.S., General Review of the Manufacturing Industries  of Canada, (Ottawa: annual). b Canada, D.B.S., New Motor Vehicles Sales, (Ottawa: annual). c Of. Appendix IV, page 176. TABLE 89 IMPORTS OF CONSUMER GOODS TO BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM CANADA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD; 1961 - 1963 (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 Rest of Rest of Rest of Total Foreign Canada Total Foreign Canada Total Foreign Canada Food products 60.7 60.7 _ _ _ 60.7 60.7 -mmmmm 67.6 67.6 Clothing: women and 67.3 76.0 3.8 children 68.4 5.0 63.4 71.8 4.5 72.2 Clothing: men and boys 33.8 2.7 31.1 36.8 2.4 34.4 38.2 2.1 36.1 Footwear 22.3 2.9 19.4 23.7 3.3 20.4 24.8 3.2 21.6 Household appliances 16.0 5.3 10.7 17.7 4.6 13.1 16.8 3.5 13.3 Furniture, radio, 14.2 television 19.8 9.5 10.3 23.3 9.1 23.2 7.7 15.5 Piecegoods, linen 17.3 12.4 4.9 18.7 11.9 6.8 19.9 12.0 7.9 Tobacco 23.7 23.7 24.5 — 24.5 24.8 24.8 Alcoholic beverages 2.8 2.8 • • 2.7 2.7 • * 2.5 2.5 • • Passenger cars 59.5 20.2 39.3 88.8 23.8 65.O 104.1 15.4 88.7 Other merchandise, n.o.s. 205.4 32.8 172.6 219.5 31.5 188.0 230.1 37.7 192.4 Total 529.7 154.3 375.4 588.2 154.5 433.7 628.0 155.5 472.5 n i l or negligible. .. not applicable. Totals may not add due to rounding. Cf. Appendix IV pp. 150-177. 179. Capital Goods Estimates on the capital goods expenditure i n Br i t i s h Columbia are published annually.3° The expenditure in machinery and equipment i s divided into capital and repair expenditure. Both categories include an unspecified proportion of labour costs. It may be assumed that the proportion of labour costs i n the estimate of capital expenditure, i.e., installation costs, i s l i k e l y to be low. Expenditures on repairs on the other hand are l i k e l y to contain a very large proportion of labour costs. Nevertheless, the existing information does not permit us to establish any precise figures. For the purpose of estimating the imports of capital goods from the Rest of Canada i t has, therefore, been assumed that the figures on capital expenditure are free from labour costs while the data on repair expenditure contain labour costs only. I t i s not unreasonable to hope that the errors resulting from the assumptions may cancel to a large degree. Some part of the capital goods have, of course, been produced in B r i t i s h Columbia. An estimate of the production has been compiled from information contained in the data on manufacturing activity in British Columbia. 3 7 It i s reasonable to suppose that some of the production has been exported to the Rest of Canada. In order to account for these exports i t has been assumed with two exceptions that the Province exports 10 per cent of i t s production of capital goods. The two exceptions are shipbuilding and boatbuilding. Both categories incorporate a substantial portion of repairs, i.e., labour. 180. To account for the labour cost, the production data have been reduced by 20 per cent, while i t has been assumed that no exports have taken place to the Rest of Canada. In addition, imports of airplanes valued at one million dollars and over have been omitted from the estimates. The imports of these expensive aircraft cannot properly be considered as imports into Br i t i s h Columbia, but rather as imports into Canada.39 Estimates on foreign exports and imports have been gathered from the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. Ten per cent of the recorded imports have been subtracted as an estimate of trans-shipments. TABLE 90 NET ABSORPTION OF BRITISH COLUMBIA PRODUCTION OF CAPITAL GOODS, 1961 - 1963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 B.C. production a 97.942 133,341 147,857 Less: exports b 3,081 4,019 10,773 labour content ^ i n : shipbuilding 6,020 9.124 10,104 boatbuilding 2.500 3,659 3.815 - 11,601 - 16,802 - 24.692 86,341 116,539 123,165 Less: exports to the Rest of Canada 2 - 5.533 - 6.943 - 7,8l6 Net Absorption 80,808 109,596 115,349 a Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: British Columbia, Yukon and  Northwest Territories, (Ottawa: annual). ~~ b British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External Trade Through British  Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 1 Estimated at 20 per cent of total production i n boat - and shipbuilding. 2 Estimated at 10 per cent of total production excluding boat - and shipbuilding. 182. TABLE 91 CAPITAL GOODS - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 B.C. capital expenditure a (excluding repairs) 304,900 329,400 358,100 Less..B.C. net production b 80,808 109,596 115,349 Less imports from abroad c 93,401 99,450 104,500 Plus estimated trans-shipments 1 9.340 9,945 10,450 Imports from the Rest of Canada 140,031 130,299 148,701 a Canada, Department of Trade and Commerce, Private and Public  Investment i n Canada, (Ottawa: annual). D Based on Table 90 , p age 181. c B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 1 Ten per cent of foreign imports. 183. Construction Materials The existence of production data for consumption and capital goods enabled us to estimate imports from the Rest of Canada as a residual. Regrettably, figures on the production of construction mater-i a l s are not recorded - or, at least, not published - and a different approach had to be developed. An estimate of the total value of construction materials used 40 annually i n Br i t i s h Columbia was available. This figure includes materials of B r i t i s h Columbia origin, foreign imports, and imports from the Rest of Canada. Of these three components only one; namely, foreign imports; could be estimated from the available sources of data. In order to separate the remaining two components, the Canadian input-output table for the year 1949 was employed.^ With the help of the input-output table i t was feasible to estimate the proportion of the total value of construction materials which may be considered of Br i t i s h Columbia origin. Briefly, the input-output table shows for selected industries the proportion of inputs from other industries necessary to produce one dollar's worth of output i n that industry. Broadly speaking, the inputs may be divided into materials and non-materials. The former may be broken down into materials of B r i t i s h Columbia origin, such as forest products, and materials which do not appear to have originated in British Columbia. For each dollar of output from the B r i t i s h Columbia construe-, tion industry i t i s , therefore, feasible to calculate the proportion of total materials and the proportion of materials of Br i t i s h Columbia origin 184. used i n construction. The ratio:; of the latte r to the former results i n an estimate of construction materials of British Columbia origin as a proportion of total materials used. By applying this proportion to the published estimates of construction materials used in the Province, an estimate of the value of construction materials of British Columbia origin used by the British Columbia construction industry has been obtained. The residual contains foreign imports as well as imports from the Rest of Canada. An estimate of the former was obtained from the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. In the estimation procedure several assumptions which merit further discussion have been employed. In the f i r s t place i t has been assumed that the 1949 data for Canada as a whole are s t i l l applicable i n 1961 for the Province of Br i t i s h Columbia. No attempt w i l l be made here to defend this assumption; the rapid pace of technological and industrial change between 1949 and 1961 has, of course, changed many of the coefficients in the input-output table. Nor i s i t proper to assume for British Columbia the same coefficients as for Canada as a whole. We are entirely aware of the discrepancy between assumptions and r e a l i t y . We fe e l , however, that i n the absence of any other sources of information the assumptions are sufficient to indicate the approxi-mate magnitude of imports of construction materials from the Rest of Canada. While the available information did not permit us to guage up the accuracy of the estimates, the Railway stati s t i c s indicate that B r i t i s h Columbia i s an importer of various types of construction materials. Among these are sand, asphalt and cement, as well as iron 185. and steel in the form of bars, rods and manufactures. It has furthermore been assumed that certain inputs into the construction industry are entirely of British Columbia origin. This assumption i s much easier to defend; a l l available information indicates that a l l forest products inputs originate i n Br i t i s h Columbia. In the case of non-metallic mineral products, petroleum and coal, the evidence i s not quite as decisive; some non-metallic mineral products are imported 43 into B r i t i s h Columbia. J However, the major portion of these products may be assumed to have originated in Br i t i s h Columbia. In the absence of other, more precise information, i t i s therefore assumed that a l l of these inputs are Br i t i s h Columbia products. 186. TABLE 9 2 IMPORTS OF CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS, 1961 - 1963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 Total materials used i n B.C. a 328,972 350,998 386,196 Materials of B.C. origin b 132,041 140,882 155,010 196,931 210,116 231,186 Imports from abroad c 24,961 32,752 34,227 Imports from the Rest of Canada 171,970 177,364 196,959 a Canada, D.B.S., Construction i n Canada, (Ottawa: annual). D C&i Appendix V, page 216. c B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 187. Industrial Materials In the production process some of British Columbia's firms use inputs which are not available in British Columbia and which are imported from abroad or from the Rest of Canada. These materials may be divided into four groups: metals, chemicals, textiles and food products. The B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data may be looked upon as indicative of foreign imports. With respect to imports from the Rest of Canada, the existing information i s scant. Because of the small size and the frequently specialized nature of the materials employed, the Railway st a t i s t i c s could not be ut i l i z e d , except in the case of iron and steel. Metals; The Bri t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data have been taken as an indicator of imports of metal from abroad. Imports from the Rest of Canada are of an unknown magnitude except for steel and iron i n the form of bars, rods and slabs. Here the volume of imports could be determined from the Railway s t a t i s t i c s . ^ In order to arrive at the value of imports of steel from the Rest of Canada, the volume figures have been multiplied by an arithmetic average of published Canadian steel prices for rods, bars and s l a b s . ^ Chemicals; A l l estimates of foreign imports are based on the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports s t a t i s t i c s . Dominant among these imports are phosphate rock and aluminum bauxite used in the smelters at Kimberly and Kitimat. Imports from the Rest of Canada could not be determined, i t appears highly probable that some chemicals are imported from other 188. provinces into B r i t i s h Columbia; examples are coal, lubricants and other petroleum products from Alberta. The lack of information about the value or volume of these imports precludes any attempt at establishing a creditable estimate. 189. TABLE 93 IRON AND STEEL 1 - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, 1961 - I963 (VOLUME AND VALUE) 1961 1962 1963 Net unloadings ^ (in tons) 20,689 28,894 33,443 Unit value D (dollars per ton) 123.20 123.20 123.20 Value of imports (thousands of dollars) 2,549 3,560 4,120 a Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Traffic,(Ottawa: annual). b Canada, Department of Mines and Technical Surveys, Canadian  Minerals Yearbook 1964, (Ottawa: 1966), page 302. 1 Iron and steel i n the form of bars, rods and slabs. 2 Unloadings less loadings and imports. 190. Textiles: With a few exceptions, data on a l l imports of tex t i l e materials from abroad have been taken from the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data. These imports are assumed to have been used as inputs in the Province's textile industry. The exceptions are cordage, fishing nets, and wiping rags. In the case of cordage, the Railway st a t i s t i c s indicate that a large proportion of cordage imports i s trans-shipped to other parts of Canada.46 A l l foreign imports of fishing nets and wiping rags are assumed to have been terminated i n Br i t i s h Columbia. Imports of these items from the Rest of Canada could not be determined. Imports of a l l other textile materials from abroad are assumed to have been employed as inputs in the B r i t i s h Columbia Textile industry. Neglecting the poss i b i l i t y that some inputs are outputs from other Br i t i s h Columbia firms, i t has been assumed that the remainder - total inputs minus foreign imports - i s imported from the Rest of Canada. Food Products: Imports of raw sugar and of green coffee as l i s t e d in the B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data are assumed to have been terminated i n B r i t i s h Columbia and used as inputs for further pro-cessing. In addition, a part of foreign imports of fresh f r u i t s and vegetables which i s used i n the canning industry of Br i t i s h Columbia has 48 been added to the estimates. 191. TABLE 94 INPUTS INTO THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY - IMPORTS FROM THE REST OF CANADA, I96I - I963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) Materials purchased by the textile industry a Less imports from abroad D Imports from the Rest of Canada 1961 1962 1963 10,902 12,581 13,744 6,121 6,802 6,783 4,781 5,779 6 , 9 6 1 a Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada; British  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa; annual). D B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.; annual). TABLE 95 IMPORTS OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS TO BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM CANADA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD3 1961 - 1963 (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 Total Rest of Foreign Canada Total Rest of Foreign Canada Total Rest of Foreign Canada Iron 17.3 14.8 2.6 16.6 13.0 3.6 16.0 11.9 4.1 Aluminum 19.0 19.0 20.1 20.1 — 22.1 22.1 — Other metals, n.o.s. 4.8 4.8 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 • • Chemicals 17.4 17.4 18.3 18.3 17.6 17.6 • • Textiles 13.3 8.5 4.8 14.9 9.1 5.8 15.7 8.7 7.0 Other materials, n.o.s. 28.9 28.9 • • 24.6 24.6 . . . 26.0 26.0 . • • Total 100.7 93.4 7.3 97.6 88.2 9.4 100.8 §9.7 11.1 Totals may not add due to rounding. — n i l or negligible. .. not applicable. *Cf. Appendix IV, pp. 187-191, H ro Canada, D.B.S., Retail Trade. (Ottawa: monthly). Canada, D.B.S., 1961 Census of Canada. Vol. VI. Part 1.  Analysis of Sales by Commodity. (Ottawa: 1966). 3lbid., Table 23. "^Canada, D.B.S., Retail Trade, op. c i t . ^Based on revised yearly estimates. ^The method implicitly assumes that the 1961 percentage d i s t r i -bution of commodity sales within each establishment remains the same in the following two years. ?Ibid, Table 24. The Table i s the exact reversal of the previous table on which the calculations have so far been based. Q These calculations alone involved three sets of data (one for each year) with approximately 2700 observations, divided f i r s t into 47 types of establishment, then into 90 commodity groups. °Canada, D.B.S., 1961 Census of Canada, op. c i t . , Table 24. 1 0The underestimation varied widely between commodity groups, from less than 1 per cent for "drugs and medicine" to 54 per cent for "candy and confectionaries". -^The 1961 estimates are, of course, indentical to the estimates contained in Table 24 of the Census data. Canada, D.B.S., 1961 Census of Canada, op. c i t . , Table 24. 1 2An attempt to determine the mark up for radio, television and record players yielded only a 6 per cent mark up. Attempts for other commodity groups proved equally disappointing. order to protect the confidential nature of the information, i t s source shall remain confidential. 194. •^The same problem occurs i n the estimation of imports other than r e t a i l goods. •^For the years 1961 to I963 the tax was 11 per cent of the value of production f o r a l l manufactured goods except food products. Information supplied by the Department of National Revenue, Vancouver, B.C. l 6 C f . Appendix V, page 210. ^Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: B r i t i s h  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s , op. c i t . 1 B W i t h the p o s s i b l e exception of the f u r n i t u r e industry. The Railway s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e shipments of f u r n i t u r e to other parts of Canada. ^ F r e s h f r u i t and vegetables. 2 0 W i t h the exception of food products. 2 1 E x c l u d e s f r e s h f r u i t and vegetables. 2 2 I t must be emphasized that the concept "producer" does not apply to the farm u n i t but to the manufacturing plant i n which the food purchased from the farmer i s processed by means of sorting, grading, m i l l i n g , pre-cooking, canning, and packaging. 23The mark up of goods sold i n the small grocery store i s pre-sumably higher than that of the supermarket. This r e s u l t s i n an upward b i a s of the estimates of consumption at producer's p r i c e s as w e l l as of imports from the Rest of Canada. 2^Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: B r i t i s h  Columbia, Yukon and Northwest T e r r i t o r i e s , op. c i t . 195. Cf. Appendix V, page 215. £ Indeed, a glance at the shelves i n Bri t i s h Columbia's grocery-stores indicates that certain food products such as cereals, cookies and canned foods originate i n other parts of Canada, mainly i n Ontario. 27B.C.CP., 1961 28R.F.T., 1961, A weighted average of bananas, lemons and limes, oranges and grapefruit. Cf. Table 104, page 213. 2^Cf. Appendix V, page 212. 3°B.CCP. Also: Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . 31Canada, D.B.S., General Review of the Manufacturing Industries  of Canada, (Ottawa: annual). 3 2 C f . Table 87, page 175.' 33canada, D.B.S., New Motor Vehicle Sales, (Ottawa: annual). ^Canada, D.B.S., General Review of the Manufacturing Industries  of Canada, op. c i t . 35sales of United States cars are only a fraction of that of Canadian cars. 36canada, Department of. Trade and Commerce, Private and Public Investment in Canada, (Ottawa: annual). 37canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: Bri t i s h  Columbia. Yukon and Northwest Territories, op. c i t . 38while the proportion i s not an exact estimate, i t i s neither arbitrary; for i t reflects the fact that British Columbia i s essentially an importer of capital goods. 39valued at 1.7 million dollars in 196l, 25.7 million dollars in 1962 and n i l i n 1963. 196. ^Canada, D.B.S., Construction i n Canada, (Ottawa: annual). ^Canada, D.B.S., The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services,  Canada 1949. (Ottawa: 1956). 4 2R.F.T. ^ C f . Table 93, page 189. 45canada, Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Mineral Resources Division, Canadian Minerals Yearbook 1965. (Ottawa: Queen's Printer, 1967), page 204. Cf. Appendix V, page 211. 47cf. Table 94, page 191. 48cf. Appendix V, page 212. , 197. APPENDIX V MISCELLANEOUS ESTIMATES Exports of Lumber to the Rest of Canada We have considered only the exports of softwood lumber from Bri t i s h Columbia. The production of hardwoods in Bri t i s h Columbia i s negligible in comparison with the production of softwoods. In 1961 the production of hardwoods i n B r i t i s h Columbia amounted to only 3 thousand million board feet in comparison with 5,393 million board feet for softwoods. Even for Canada as a whole the production of hardwood i s only a fraction of the production of softwoods.1 The residual of shipments less exports to foreign countries as calculated in Table 10, pages 50-53, includes the provincial domestic disappearance as well as Exports to the Rest of Canada. An estimate of the provincial disappearance has been obtained by allocating to Br i t i s h Columbia a portion of the Canadian domestic disappearance on a per capita basis. In contrast to the previous calculation on the exports of lumber which were made separately for each species i n terms of volume, the estimate of the exports to the Rest of Canada have been calculated i n value terms for a l l species combined. More specifically, the value of the residual (British Columbia shipments less estimated shipments to foreign countries) has been multiplied by one minus the ratio of estimated provincial disappearance to estimated residual, both expressed in volume terms. The estimation procedure assumes implicitly that the product mix of exports to the Rest of Canada i s equal to the product mix of the residual. 199 TABLE 96 CALCULATION OF DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE OF SOFTWOOD LUMBER IN CANADA, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSAND MILLION BOARD FEET) 1961 2962. 1963 1964 Production a 1 Less exports b Plus imports c 7,807 4,824 2,983 145 3,128 8,410 5,315 3,095 12? 3,222 9,410 6,095 3,315 129 3,444 9,837 6,324 3,513 119 3,632 a Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, (Ottawa: annual). D Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, (Ottawa: monthly). 0 Canada, D.B.S., Imports by Commodities, (Ottawa: monthly), 1 The data on production are approximately 10 per cent higher than comparative data on shipments of lumber. The difference i s not primarily the result of inventory changes but of the definition of the word "firm". Sawmill shipments stat i s t i c s include only those firms whose primary function i s the production of lumber. The production data above include production of lumber i n a l l industries or firms. 200. Exports of Western White Spruce Western white spruce grows mainly in Br i t i s h Columbia but occurs as far east as Manitoba. The Trade of Canada data show that 995 thousand million board feet have been exported to the United States i n 1961. B r i t i s h Columbia production data on western white spruce are not ava i l -able for 1961. Nevertheless, data on the shipments of spruce (which includes western white spruce) for Alberta and Br i t i s h Columbia reveal that total Alberta production of spruce i s only a fraction of that pro-duced in Br i t i s h Columbia (87 thousand million board feet i n Alberta versus 1,073 thousand million board feet i n British Columbia).^ It follows that most of the exports of western white spruce have to originate i n B r i t i s h Columbia. If, however, recorded exports of western white spruce and estimated exports of spruce, n.e.s., are subtracted from the B r i t i s h Columbia shipment data, the domestic dis-appearance of spruce becomes negative.^ It must, therefore, be assumed that some small portion of the recorded exports of western white spruce originate! i n Alberta. Indeed, i t i s known that the lumber industry i n Alberta depends mainly on the United States market.? As a result of these considerations, the exports of western white spruce originally allocated to British Columbia have been reduced to take account of the proportion of exports of the species which originated in Alberta. 201. Lodgepole Pine - Exports to Foreign Countries. 1961 and 1962 Ninety-three per cent of the total Canadian production of fi lodgepole pine i s produced in Bri t i s h Columbia. Export statistics are not available for 1961 and 1962. In these years the exports of lodgepole pine have been included i n the exports of pine.^ For I963 and 1964 the Trade of Canada stati s t i c s disclose that 83.5 per cent and 82.0 per cent of the Canadian production has been exported abroad. 1^ In the same years exports through customs ports of the Province amounted to only 4.5 per cent of Bri t i s h Columbia's production of lodgepole pine."*"*' The tendency of the British Columbia Customs Ports data to underestimate the true magnitude of exports of Br i t i s h Columbia lumber has been demonstrated for other species. It has, therefore, been assumed that actual exports of lodgepole pine from Br i t i s h Columbia as a propor-tion of production i n the Province i s equal to the Canadian exports of lodgepole pine as a proportion of the Canadian production. It has, furthermore, been assumed that exports as a proportion remain stable between 1961 and I963. These assumptions permitted the estimation of lodgepole pine from Br i t i s h Columbia for the years 1961 and 1962. 202. Pine and White Pine - Exports to Foreign Countries, 1961 and 1962 In 1961 and I962 the Br i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data l i s t only exports of pine which includes white pine and lodgepole pine. In order to separate the exports of pine and white pine from that of lodgepole pine i t has been assumed that the exports of pine and white pine as a proportion of total exports of pine through Br i t i s h Columbia customs ports in the years 1961 and 1962 were the same as i n 1963, the f i r s t year for which we have separate export s t a t i s t i c s . 1 2 These estimates of exports have, furthermore, been inflated to account for the tendency of the British Columbia Customs Ports data to underestimate exports of lumber to foreign countries. Because of the agreement of the British Columbia Customs Ports data and the Trade of Canada st a t i s t i c s with respect to a l l foreign exports except those to the United States, the estimated additional exports of a l l species of pine have been allocated to exports to the united States. 1 3 203. TABLE 97 PLYWOOD AND VENEER -BRITISH COLUMBIA PROVINCIAL DISAPPEARANCE, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Canadian shipments a 82,241 92,514 107,973 128,883 Less Canadian exports a 12,510 17,737 21,250 29,?46 69,731 74,777 86,723 99,137 Plus Canadian imports b 263 218 193 364 Canadian disappearance 69,994 74,995 86,916 99,501 B. C. disappearance 1 6,250 6,697 7,762 8,985 a Canada, D.B.S., Veneer and Plywood M i l l s , (Ottawas annual). D Canada, D.B.S., Imports by Commodities, (Ottawa: monthly). 1 Calculated on a per capita basis. TABLE 98 SHAKES AND SHINGLES -BRITISH COLUMBIA PROVINCIAL DISAPPEARANCE, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSAND R.F.S.Q.) 1961 1962 1963 Canadian shipments a 2,290 2,347 2,880 less Canadian exports a 2,058 2,256 2,565 Canadian disappearance 232 91 315 B. C. disappearance 21 8 28 a Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, (Ottawa: annual) 1 Calculated on a per capita basis. 205. Exports of Nickel In I963 and 1964 the recorded exports of nickel are larger than recorded production.^ This implies that some of the recorded exports must have originated i n a province other than British Columbia. To re c t i f y this discrepancy i t has been assumed that 500 of the 774 thousand dollar surplus (production less exports) in I962 has been exported in 1963. The remaining d e f i c i t in I963 and the d e f i c i t i n 1964 has been eliminated by reducing the recorded exports to a l l other countries i n proportion to their recorded exports. In 1963 the total d e f i c i t i s 1,324 (1,824 - 500) thousand dollars. TABLE 99 EXPORTS OF NICKEL THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA CUSTOMS PORTS, 1963* United Kingdom Japan Rest of the World Value (In thousands of dollars) 1,842 2,592 497 As a percentage of total exports 37.36 52.56 10.08 *British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports. (Victoria, B.C.: annual), Thus, recorded exports to the united States have been reduced by 495 thousand dollars which i s equal to the size of the total d e f i c i t (1,324 thousand dollars) multiplied by the proportion of exports recorded to the United States (.3736). 206. TABLE 100 PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS OF NICKEL, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Production a 3,194 2,903 3,107 2,855 Exports b : United States 38 33 — 11 United Kingdom — 1,842 92 Japan 2,268 1,673 2,592 1,961 European Economic Community — — — 710 Rest of the World 666 423 497 414 Rest of Canada 1 222 774 - 1,824 - 333 — n i l or negligible. a B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). b B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.: annual; Production minus exports 207 TABLE 101 ESTIMATED EXPORTS OF NICKEL, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 Production a 3,194 2,903 3,107 2,855 Shipments b 3,194 2,353 3,607 2,855 Exports: c United Kingdom — — 1,347 92 United States 38 33 — 11 Japan 2,268 1,673 1,896 l , 7 6 l European Economic Community — — — 610 Rest of the World 666 423 36l ^81 Rest of Canada 222 224 — - n i l or negligible. a B r i t i s h Columbia, Department of Mines and Natural Resources, Report of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources .(Victoria, B.C.: annual). D Adjusted production data, see Appendix V, page 205.. c See Appendix V, page 2o5; 208 TABLE 102 EXPORTS OF SULPHUR THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA CUSTOMS PORTS,3 1961 - 1964 (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1961 1962 1963 1964 United Kingdom .2 .3 .4 United States 3*6 3.8 4.8 5.0 Japan - — — .5 »4 European Economic Community — — — 1.2 Rest of the World — 1.0 4.1 9.5 — n i l or negligible. a British Columbia, B.E.S., Preliminary Statement of External  Trade Through British Columbia Customs Ports, (Victoria, B.C.; annual). 209 TABLE 103 FISH PRODUCTS - BRITISH COLUMBIA PROVINCIAL DISAPPEARANCE, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) 1961 Canadian production a 222,878 Less Canadian exports a 143,346 79,532 Plus Canadian imports a 20,643 Canadian domestic di sappearance 100,175 Estimated B.C. disappearance 1 8,946 1962 1963 1964 260,986 264,352 293,467 156,621 173,838 205,638 104,365 90,514 87,829 21,914 22,815 23,184 126,279 113,329 111,013 11,279 10,166 10,024 a Canada, D.B.S., Fisheries Statistics - Canada, (Ottawa: annual). Calculated on a per capita basis Calculation of the Value of Production from the Value of Retail Sales Given: store r e t a i l price s P R store purchase price = Pg manufacturing tax = .11 mark up as percentage of store purchase price = m We are looking for: price received by the manufacturer - PM The following relationship exists: P M + .11 P M = P s and m P s = P R Therefore: % + .11 P M + m (P M + .11 P M) = P R P M (1 +.11 • m + .11 m) = P R P M (1.11 • 1.11 m) = P R P R / (1.11 + 1.11 m) = P M 211. Trans-shipments of Cordage through British Columbia. 1961 - 196 3 The Railway stati s t i c s disclose that a substantial proportion of cordage imported through B r i t i s h Columbia customs ports has been trans-shipped to other parts of C a n a d a . F r o m the data of the volume of shipments as l i s t e d i n the Railway st a t i s t i c s , the proportion of imports destined to other parts in Canada has been calculated. In I963, for example, 3,078 tons out of 3,894 tons have been in trans-shipment. Imports of cordage through British Columbia customs ports were valued i n the same year at 1,426 thousand d o l l a r s . ^ This implies that 1,426 thousand dollars x .79 or 1,126 thousand dollars have been trans-shipped to the Rest of Canada, leaving an estimate of imports from abroad of 300 thousand dollars. Estimates of Imports of Fresh Fruit and Vegetables for Processing i n Br i t i s h Columbia According to a letter received from the Dominion Bureau of Statistics, the imports of fresh f r u i t and vegetables for processing were valued at 1,818 million dollars i n 1961. 1 7 Total inputs of 1 ft canneries were valued at 29.061 million dollars in the same year. Under the assumption that imports as a proportion of total inputs remained the same between 1961 and 1963. the imports of fresh f r u i t and vegetables for further processing have been estimated for the years 1962 and I963 by applying the 196l ratio of imports to inputs to the value of tot a l inputs in 1962 and 1963. 213. TABLE 104 UNLOADINGS AND IMPORTS OF SELECTED FRUIT IN BRITISH COLUMBIA , a I96I (IN TONS) Unloading Imports Bananas 12,382 19,812 Limes and oranges 162 889 Oranges and grapefruit 9,665 35,620 22,209 56,321 Canada, D.B.S., Railway Freight Traffic, (Ottawa: 1962). L Originated or loaded in B.C. (includes imports at lake and ocean ports) and freight received from U.S. (rail) destined for Canadian ports. 214 TABLE 105 PRODUCTION OF ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, I96I - 1963 (IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS) Breweries a Wineries D D i s t i l l e r i e s D Total production 1961 23,336 2,215 17,877 43,428 1962 22,395 3,096 19,674 45,165 1963 24,272 3,746 20,584 48,602 a Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: British  Columbia. Yukon and Northwest Territories, (Ottawa: annual). D See Appendix V, page 215. 215. Estimates on the Production of Wineries and D i s t i l l e r i e s i n Bri t i s h Columbia. 1961 - 1963  Direct production estimates for wines and.spirits are not available for the relevant time period^ The Dominion Bureau of Statistics includes the output of wineries and d i s t i l l e r i e s i n the " A l l Other" category. 1 9 However, a Br i t i s h Columbia publication l i s t s the output of wineries for the year 1961 and the output of d i s t i l l e r i e s for the year 20 1959. These data in conjunction with the known value of sales of wines and s p i r i t s i n the Province for the years 1959 to I963 have been used to estimate the value of production between 1961 and 1963. The estimation procedure assumes that the proportion of wines and s p i r i t s of Bri t i s h Columbia origin which are sold in the Province remains constant between 1959 and I963 ^ o r s p i r i t s , and between I96I and I963 for wines. Under the above assumption, the ratio of production to sales has been calculated for s p i r i t s for the year 1959 and for wines for.the year 1961. The ratios have been applied to the known sales of sp i r i t s and wines i n the Province and resulted i n the desired estimate of production for wines and s p i r i t s for the years 1961 to 1963. 216. Imports of Construction Materials from the Rest of Canada From the input-output table i t has been established that 59.0332 per cent of the value of a l l inputs in the construction industry consisted of non-materials. It follows that 100 minus 2' 59.0332, or 40.9668 per cent of the value of a l l inputs were materials. ' In the estimation procedure of imports i t has been assumed that inputs from the following industries were entirely of British Columbia origin: forestry, wood products, non-metallic mineral products as well as petroleum and coal. Inputs from these industries amounted to 16.4431 per cent of total inputs. It follows that 16.4431/40.9668 x 100 = 40.1376 per cent of a l l inputs of materials into the construction industry were of Br i t i s h Columbia origin. Thus, in I96I the value of a l l materials used in the construction industry was 328.972 million dollars, of which 132.041 million dollars (328.972 million dollars x .401376) originated i n Bri t i s h Columbia. 21?. TABLE 106 INPUT COEFFICIENTS: CONSTRUCTION a Non-Materials: Transportation .158015 Communication .00295? Electric Power, etc. .003864 Finance .017203 Services .015758 Unallocated .026577 Investment Income .017169 Unincorporated bus. income .061150 Capital consumption .015657 Wages and Salaries .271982 .590332 Industries using mainly materials of B.C. origin: Forestry .002553 Wood Products .090448 Non-metallic mineral products .041494 Petroleum and Coal .010180 .164431 a Canada, D.B.S., Supplement to Inter-Industry Flow of Goods  and Services, 1949, (Ottawa: 1956). 218. Imports of Clothing The B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports data show some but not sufficient separation between men's and women's clothing. In order to obtain an estimate of imports for both categories, the total imports of clothing have been divided into men's and women's clothing in the same proportion as they occur in the r e t a i l sales data. 2 219. TABLE 107 POPULATION OF BRITISH COLUMBIA*AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE CANADIAN POPULATION, 1961 - 1964 (IN THOUSANDS OF PERSONS) B. C. as a percentage Year Canada Br i t i s h Columbia of Canada 1961 18,238 1,629 8.93 1962 18,570 1,659 8.93 1963 18,896 1,695 8.97 1964 19,235 1,738 9.03 * Canada, D.B.S., Annual Supplement to the Canadian Statistical  Review, (Ottawa: annual). TABLE 108 ESTIMATES OF EXPORTS OF B.C. PRODUCTS - 1964 a 220 Forest Products * Total foreign U.K. U.S.A. Japan E.E.C. Canada - no estimate $ 733.0 million 110.1 " 487.8 « 50.7 37.1 » * raw materials and primary manufactures, excluding secondary manufactures. Mineral Products * Total U.K. U.S.A. Japan E .E .C. Canada -foreign $ 255.4 million 53.4 « 96.8 " 66.9 " 11 .8 « no estimate * ores, concentrates, ingots, fuels, but excluding coke, scrap, and manufactures. Fisheries Products * Total foreign U.K. U.S.A. Japan E.E.C. Canada - no estimate * including manufactures. Agricultural Products * Total foreign U.K. U.S.A. Japan E.E.C. Canada - no estimate * including manufactures and elevator screenings. A l l Products of B.C. Origin Total foreign U.K. U.S.A. Japan E .E. C. Canada - no estimate $ 54.9 million 20.8 " 17.2 " 0.8 » 8.9 " 43.2 million 4.4 » 22.1 " 4.1 » 4.2 » $1,153.4 million 190.7 " 668.9 » 126.3 " 63.6 " a Correspondence with Mr. J. R. Meredith, Assistant Director, Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Victoria, B.C., December 6, I967. 221. ^Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, op. c i t . , 1961. 2Table 96, page 199. 3Table 11, page 54. ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . ^Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, op. c i t . , I96I. ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . , 1961. B.C.CP. and our own calculations. ^Alberta, Department of Lands and Forests, Annual Report of  the Department of Lands and Forests of the Province of Alberta for  the Fiscal Year ended March 31st, 1963, (Edmonton: 1963), page 48. 8Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, op. c i t . , I96I. 9B.C.CP. ^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, op. c i t . -^B.C.C.P. Canada, D.B.S., Sawmills, op. c i t . 12B.C.C.P. -^Canada, D.B.S., Exports by Commodities, op. c i t . %.C.C.P. and M.M.P.R. 1 5R.F.T. l6B.C.C.P. •^Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing and Primary Industries Division, Food, Beverage and Textile Section, Industry Officer, February 20, I969. ^Canada, D.B.S., Manufacturing Industries of Canada: British  Columbia. Yukon and Northwest Territories, op. c i t . , 1961. 1 9 l b i d . 222. 2 0 B r i t i s h Columbia, B.E.S., Bri t i s h Columbia Industry Study  Series, Volume 1, Food and Beverages, (Victoria, B.C.: 19&5) pages 27 and 29. 2 1 B r i t i s h Columbia, Liquor Control Board, Annual Report, (Victoria, B.C.: annual). 2 2Canada, D.B.S., The Inter-Industry Flew of Goods and Services, Canada 1949. (Ottawa: 1956). 2 3 c f . Table 75. page 153. 223. BIBLIOGRAPHY Books Isard, Walter. Methods of Regional Analysis: An Introduction to Regional Science. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., i960. Morgenstern, Oscar. On the Accuracy of Economic Observations. 2nd ed. revised. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton university Press, I965. James, Preston, E. and Jones, Clarence, E. (eds.). American Geography: Inventory and Prospect. New York: Syracuse University Press, 1954. Publications of the Dominion Bureau of Statistics of Canada Canada. Dominion Bureau of Statistics. Annual Supplement to the Canadian  St a t i s t i c a l Review. Ottawa: annual. 1961 Census of Canada, Vol. TL, Part 1, Analysis of Sales by Commodity. Ottawa: annual. C i v i l Aviation. Ottawa: annual. Construction i n Canada. Ottawa: annual. Control and Sale of Alcoholic Beverages i n Canada. Ottawa: annual. Exports by Commodities. Ottawa: monthly. Fisheries Statistics - Canada. Ottawa: annual. Fisheries Statistics - British Columbia. Ottawa: annual. General Review of the Mining Industry. Ottawa: annual. General Review of the Manufacturing Industries of Canada. Ottawa: annual. Imports by Commodities. Ottawa: annual. Manufacturing Industries of Canada: Bri t i s h Columbia, Yukon  and the Northwest Territories. Ottawa: annual. 224. Motor Transport Traffic: British Columbia. Ottawa: annual. New Motor Vehicle Sales. Ottawa: annual. Production. Shipments and Stocks on Hand of Sawmills in  British Columbia. Ottawa: monthly. Pulp and Paper M i l s . Ottawa: annual. Railway Freight Traffic. Ottawa: annual. Retail Trade. Ottawa: annual. Sawmills. Ottawa: annual. The Inter-Industry Flow of Goods and Services. Canada 1949. Ottawa: 1956. Veneer and Plywood M i l l s . Ottawa: annual. Publications of the Government of British Columbia Br i t i s h Columbia. Br i t i s h Columbia i n the Canadian Federation. Victoria, B.C.: 1938. B r i t i s h Columbia Liquor Control Board. Annual Report. Victoria,B.C.: annual. Budget Speech. Victoria, B.C.: annual. Bureau of Economics and Statistics. The Trade of British Columbia with other Canadian Provinces and with Foreign  Countries. Calendar Year 1939. Victoria, B.C.: 1940. Bureau of Economics and Statistics. Preliminary Statement of External Trade through B r i t i s h Columbia Customs Ports. Victoria, B.C.: annual. mBur_eau of. .Economics and ^Statistics,, British Columbia Industry Study Series." Vol. 1, Food''and Beverages. Victoria. B.C.: 1965. Department of Agriculture. Annual Report. Victoria, B.C.: annual ( mimeograph ). Department of Agriculture, Markets and Statistics Branch. Agricultural Statistics Report. Victoria. B.C.: annual. 225. Department of Forests. Report of the British Columbia Forest  Service. Victoria, B.C.: annual. Department of Mines and Natural Resources. Report of the  Minister of Mines and Petroleum Resources. Victoria, B.C.;-annual. _Economic Council of British Columbia. The Trade of British  Columbia with other Candian Provinces and with Foreign  Countries. Victoria,B.C.: annual, 1934 - 1938. Submission of the Province of Bri t i s h Columbia to the  Royal Commission on Transportation. Part I. Victoria,B.C.: 1964" ' Publications of the Government of Canada Canada. Board of Transport Commissioners. Bureau of Transportation Economics. Waybill Analysis, Carload A l l R a i l T r a f f i c . Department of Agriculture. Annual Report of the Department  of Agriculture, Livestock Production and Marketing. Vancouver, B.C.: annual ( mimeograph ). Department of Mines and Technical Surveys. Canadian Minerals Yearbook 1964. Ottawa: 1966 Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Mineral Resources Division. Canadian Minerals Yearbook 1965. Ottawa: 196?. Department of Trade and Commerce. Private and Public  Investment in Canada. Ottawa: annual. Personal Interviews and Private Correspondence Personal interviw with Mr. Leslie Reid, economist, British Columbia Council of Forest Products. Vancouver, B.C. 1965 Personal interviw woth Mr. H. Ford, Cnada, Department of Agriculture, Vancouver, B.C. 1966. Professor McQuiran, formerly of the University of British Columbia, now teaching at the University of Toronto. Vancouver, B.C. I965. 226. Personal interview and private correspondence with a nation-wide department store, Vancouver,B.C., 1965• Private correspondence iwth Industry Officer, Canada, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Manufacturing and Primary Industries Division, Food, Beverages and Textile Section, Feb. 20, 1969. Private Correspondence, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Industry Statistics, July 7. 1966. Private Correspondence with J.R. Meredith, Assistant Director, Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Victoria, B.C., Dec. 7» 1967. Other Sources Alberta, Department of Lands and Forests. Annual Report of the Department  of Lands and Forrests of the Province of Alberta for the  Fiscal Year ended March 31st, 1963. Edmonton: 1963. United States. Interstate Commerce Commission. Bureau of Transport Economics and Statistics. Carload Wybill Analysis, State to  State Distribution of Tonnage by Commodity Groups. Washington, D.C. : quarterly. Smith, Tynes, R. "Technical Aspects of Transportation Flow Data." Journal of the American S t a t i s t i c a l Association, XVIX(June, 1954), The Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company of Canada Limited. 56th, 57th, 58th, and 59th Annual Report; Shearer, R.A., Munroe, G.R., and Young, J.H."Trade Liberalization and the Br i t i s h Columbia Economy." Toronto: University of Toronto Press for the Private Planning Association of Canada, ( forthcoming ). 

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