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Land use, price changes and speculation on the urban fringe: an inter-temporal case study in the Victoria.. 1971

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LAND USE, PRICE CHANGES AND SPECULATION ON THE URBAN FRINGE: AN INTER-TEMPORAL CASE STUDY IN THE VICTORIA AREA, B.C. b y George M i c h a e l K r o p i n s k i Comm., The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 19 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION i n t h e D i v i s i o n o f URBAN LAND ECONOMICS F a c u l t y o f COMMERCE AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d : THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH S e p t e m b e r , 197D COLUMBIA In presenting this thesis In p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make ft f r e e l y available for reference and Study. I further agree that .permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It is understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of this thes.is for f i n a n c i a l gain sha l l not be allowed without my written permission. George M i c h a e l K r o p i n s k i Department of U r b a n Land E c o n o m i c s The University of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date S e p t e m b e r , 1971 i i i . LAND USE, PRICE CHANGES AND SPECULATION ON THE URBAN FRINGE: AN INTER-TEMPORAL CASE STUDY IN THE VICTORIA AREA, B.C. ABSTRACT George M i c h a e l K r o p i n s k i The p r i c e o f u r b a n and s u b u r b a n l a n d i n most o f t h e W e s t e r n W o r l d has b e e n i n c r e a s i n g a t a p a r t i c u l a r l y - r a p i d r a t e . I n f a c t , l a n d v a l u e i n c r e a s e s a p p e a r t o be c o n s i s t e n t l y and d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y g r e a t e r t h a n t h e r i s e i n e i t h e r g e n e r a l consumer p r i c e s o r c o s t s o f r e s - i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n . Raw l a n d v a l u e s a r e an i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t i n f l u e n c i n g b o t h t h e q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g made a v a i l a b l e , and as s u c h , c o n s t i t u t e a r e l - e v a n t s o c i a l c o n c e r n . F u r t h e r m o r e , l a n d v a l u e s , t o a c e r t a i n e x t e n t d i c t a t e t h e t y p e o f d e v e l o p m e n t t h a t an u r b a n a r e a u n d e r g o e s . L a n d s p e c u l a t o r s have f r e q u e n t l y b e e n b l a m e d f o r c a u s i n g , o r a t l e a s t c o n t r i b u t i n g t o , n o t o n l y t h e s e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s b u t a l s o t h e s p r a w l - l i k e , p a t t e r n o f d e v e l o p m e n t so o f t e n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h u r b a n p e r i p h e r a l a r e a s . T h i s i v . t h e s i s a t t e m p t s t o t e s t t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e s e c l a i m s by a n a l y z i n g d a t a f r o m a s p e c i f i c i n t e r - t e m p o r a l s t u d y of l a n d uses., p r i c e c h a n g e s and l a n d v a l u e s i n an u r b a n f r i n g e e n v i r o n m e n t . The community s e l e c t e d f o r t h i s s t u d y was t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , w h i c h i s l o c a t e d i m m e d i a t e l y n o r t h o f t h e C i t y o f V i c t o r i a , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . O v e r 2600 s e p a r a t e p r o p e r t i e s were s a m p l e d , w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e amounts o f d a t a f o r e a c h -- i n c l u d i n g s u c h i n p u t s as t h e c h a n g i n g s e l l i n g p r i c e s , h o l d i n g p e r i o d s and d e v e l o p m e n t i n f o r m a t i o n -- t h a t were o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h t h e m u n i c i p a l a s s e s s m e n t r o l e s and t h e s e a r c h i n g o f t i t l e s i n t h e l a n d r e g i s t r y o f f i c e . The t i m e h o r i z o n s e l e c t e d was 21 y e a r s (1949-1970) i n o r d e r t o encompass s e v e r a l s t a g e s o f b u s i - n e s s a c t i v i t y . A s p e c i a l c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m u s i n g e l e m e n t s o f m u l t i - v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s a s s e m b l e d t h e v a r i o u s i n p u t s i n t o a w o r k a b l e f o r m a t , whence p o r t i o n s o f t h e d a t a c o u l d be f u r t h e r a n a l y z e d and compared. I t i s s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e l e v e l o f t r a n s a c t i o n s and t h e i n c r e a s i n g a v e r a g e raw l a n d v a l u e s have been i n f l u e n c e d by b o t h p u b l i c and p r i v a t e a c t i o n s . i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e c o n - t i n u i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n o f t h e V i c t o r i a a r e a . T h i s s t u d y V . f u r t h e r c o n t e n d s t h a t l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n p e r s e has n o t e x e r t e d a s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e e i t h e r on l a n d p r i c e s o r on t h e a c . t u a l p a t t e r n o f d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e s t u d y a r e a . P o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e s and r i s i n g l e v e l s o f p e r c a p i t a i n c o m e s a r e s u g g e s t e d as b e i n g f a c t o r s o f more s i g n i f i - c a n c e i n t h i s c o n t e x t . PREFACE T h i s s t u d y i s p a r t o f a l a r g e r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t u n d e r t a k e n f o r t h e U n i o n o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a M u n i c i p a l - i t i e s (UBCM). O r i g i n a l l y i n t e n d e d t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e t h e e f f e c t s o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n on t h e co m m u n i t y , t h e en- t i r e p r o j e c t was f i n a n c e d t h r o u g h a g r a n t f r o m t h e F e d e r a l G overnment's agency C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r - a t i o n (CMHC). The f o l l o w i n g m o t i o n e n d o r s e d b y t h e UBCM i n d i c a t e s t h e s c o p e o f t h e i r i n t e r e s t i n t h i s a r e a : "WHEREAS much o f t h e v a l u e i n l a n d w h i c h a c c r u e s f r o m t h e p r o s p e c t o f d e v e l o p m e n t s h o u l d r i g h t f u l l y be t h e p r o p e r t y o f t h e community, n o t o f p r i v a t e i n d i v - . i d u a l s ; AND WHEREAS t h e en h a n c e d v a l u e o f u r b a n and s u b u r b a n l a n d i s due i n no s m a l l measure t o m u n i c i p a l p l a n n i n g , w o r k s and s e r v i c e s ; AND WHEREAS t h e h i g h c o s t o f l a n d i s one o f t h e b a s i c c a u s e s o f t h e c u r r e n t h o u s i n g s h o r t a g e : THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED t h a t t h e UBCM e x e c u t i v e be r e q u e s t e d t o s e t up a c o m m i t t e e t o c o n s i d e r means o f c u r b i n g and o f f s e t t i n g t h e a d v e r s e e f f e c t s on t h e community o f l a n d s p e c u a l t i o n . " T h r e e u r b a n a r e a s i n t h e P r o v i n c e were s e l e c t e d f o r t h e p r o j e c t : G r e a t e r V i c t o r i a ( S a a n i c h ) , G r e a t e r Kamloops v i i . and Greater Vancouver (Richmond, Surrey, Port Coquitlam and D e l t a ) . Data f o r t h i s study of the V i c t o r i a area was c o l l e c t e d i n the Spring of 1971 as was that f o r the Kam- loops area, (see the forthcoming MBA Thesis on land spec- u l a t i o n i n the Kamloops area, by Bruce L. Richmond; some of the t h e o r e t i c a l p o r t i o n s of both s t u d i e s are i d e n t i c a l ) . v i i i . ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS D u r i n g t h e c o u r s e o f t h i s s t u d y I h a v e r e c e i v e d g u i d a n c e and a s s i s t a n c e f r o m a number o f p e o p l e , and i t i s my p l e a s u r e t o a c k n o w l e d g e them h e r e . I w o u l d p a r t i c u l a r l y l i k e t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e t o P r o f e s s o r S.W. H a m i l t o n f o r h i s v a l u a b l e a s s i s t a n c e , e x p e r i e n c e and c o n s t r u c t i v e c r i t i c i s m t h r o u g h o u t a l l p h a s e s o f t h e s t u d y . My t h a n k s a r e e x t e n d e d t o Mr. D e n n i s Grimmer o f t h e S a a n i c h P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , f o r p r o v i d i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e b a c k g r o u n d i n f o r m a t i o n and f o r a i d i n g i n t h e s e l e c t i o n o f sam p l e p r o p e r t i e s f r o m t h e l e g a l maps. The s t a f f o f t h e A s s e s s m e n t D e p a r t m e n t i n S a a n i c h p r o v i d e d i n v a l u a b l e a s s i s - t a n c e d u r i n g t h e c o u r s e c o m p i l i n g t h e d a t a f o r t h e s a m p l e p r o p e r t i e s . . I n f o r m a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o t r a n s a c t i o n s , p r o p e r t y v a l u e s and o w n e r s h i p c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s was c o l l e c t e d i n c o n f i d e n c e , and I am e s p e c i a l l y i n d e b t e d t o Mr. W i l l i a m C r a v e n , M u n i c i p a l A s s e s s o r , f o r h i s g r a c i o u s c o o p e r a t i o n . I w o u l d a l s o l i k e t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e t o Mr. S e b i u s D o e d e l f o r w r i t i n g and managing t h e c o m p u t e r p r o - gram, and t o f e l l o w s t u d e n t s f o r a s s i s t a n c e i n c o l l e c t - i n g and c o m p i l i n g t h e d a t a , n o t a b l y Mr. B r u c e R i c h m o n d and M i s s Gaye Cummings. F i n a l l y , I w o u l d l i k e t o e x p r e s s my a p p r e c i a t i o n t o my t y p i s t , M i s s Nancy B u t l e r , f o r h e r g e n u i n e i n t e r e s t and h e r q u i c k , e f f i c i e n t w o r k . X. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 1 1 PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . v i i i L I S T OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x i i i L I S T OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x i v C h a p t e r I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . 4 C h a p t e r O r g a n i z a t i o n . 7 I I LAND SPECULATION: A GENERAL DISCUSSION 12 I n t r o d u c t i o n . . . . . . . 13 S p e c u l a t i o n i n G e n e r a l Commodity M a r k e t s . . . 15 N o r t h A m e r i c a n A t t i t u d e s Towards L a n d . . . . . 18 Land S p e c u l a t i o n : The Presumed E f f e c t s . . . . 21 The M a r k e t F o r U n d e v e l o p e d U r b a n F r i n g e L a n d . 31 Land S p e c u l a t i o n R e c o n s i d e r e d . . 37 R e f e r e n c e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 I I I LAND USE CONTROL 47 I n t r o d u c t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 The P u b l i c I n t e r e s t i n Land R e s o u r c e s 49 N o r t h A m e r i c a n System o f Land T e n u r e . . . . . 52 The Case F o r P u b l i c I n t e r v e n t i o n 56 Methods o f C o n t r o l l i n g L a n d Use , 66 R e f e r e n c e s . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 x i . C h a p t e r P a g e I V THE STUDY AREA 94 I n t r o d u c t i o n . . . . . . . . . . 95 R e g i o n a l S e t t i n g . . . . . . . . . 95 The M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h • 115 R e f e r e n c e s . . . . . . . . . . . 129 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 O b j e c t i v e s o f t h e S t u d y '. 132 D a t a S o u r c e s and M e t h o d o l o g y . . . . . . . 137 R e f e r e n c e s . . . . . . . . . . . 152 V I ANALYSIS OF DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 I n t r o d u c t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f P r o p e r t i e s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d . . . . . . . . . 157 L o t and A c r e a g e S a l e P r i c e T r e n d s . . . . . 171 T i m i n g o f D e v e l o p m e n t . . . . . . 184 S a l e s b y Z o n i n g C l a s s i f i c a t i o n . . . . . . 187 S a l e P r i c e s as a F u n c t i o n o f D i s t a n c e f r o m Sample L i n e O r i g i n s . . . . . . . . 192 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 V I I CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 I n t r o d u c t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 R e c a p i t u l a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 S u g g e s t i o n s f o r F u r t h e r R e s e a r c h . . . . . 217 R e f e r e n c e s . . . . . . . . . . 221 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . 225 APPENDIX "A D a t a C o l l e c t i o n C o d i n g S h e e t APPENDIX "B" L o c a t i o n and F l o o r Space o f M a j o r R e t a i l S h o p p i n g A r e a s APPENDIX "C" R e g u l a t i o n o f P r i v a t e D e v e l o p m e n t i n S a a n i c h . . APPENDI "D" Summary T a b l e s f o r Graphs A p p e a r i n g i n C h a p t e r VI . . x i i i . L I S T OF TABLES T a b l e ' Page 1 C o s t o f R e s i d e n t i a l L a n d and C o n s t r u c - t i o n and Consumer P r i c e I n d i c e s , 1 949-70..... 6 2 Number o f S e p a r a t e T a x a b l e U n i t s , M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , 1971 149 3 T u r n o v e r R a t e s f o r U n i m p r o v e d L o t s 158 4 T u r n o v e r R a t e s f o r A c r e a g e P r o p e r t i e s 165 5-16 Summary T a b l e s f o r Graphs A p p e a r i n g i n C h a p t e r V I . . , . 250- 261 xiv. L I S T OF FIGURES F i g u r e Page I L i f e C y c l e o f Land V a l u e s 32 I I S t a g e s o f Land V a l u e s . . . . 34 I I I L o c a t i o n Map 96 I V T o p o g r a p h i c F e a t u r e s o f t h e R e g i o n 97 V G e o l o g i c a l Map: ( S o i l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s ) ..... 99 VI L a n d A s s e s s m e n t V a l u e s i n t h e M u n i c i p - a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , 1906-1970 102 V I I R a t e o f P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h i n t h e R e g i o n .... 104 V I I I R e g i o n a l P o p u l a t i o n P r o j e c t i o n s t o 1981 .... 105 I X S e t t l e m e n t P a t t e r n s i n t h e R e g i o n 109 X M a j o r Roads o f t h e R e g i o n 114 XI M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a S p a t i a l G r o w t h 116 X I I P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h , 1961-1966 117 X I I I U r b a n L o t s C r e a t e d and Su b d i v i s i o n A p p l i c a t i o n s P r o c e s s e d , 1958-1969 119 XIV L o c a t i o n o f Sewered A r e a s 121 XV Age D i s t r i b u t i o n o f O c c u p i e d D w e l l i n g s ..... 123 XVI D w e l l i n g U n i t s , S a a n i c h , 1961 § 1981 125 X V I I S o c i o - E c o n o m i c I n d e x 126 X V I I I P r o p e r t y V a l u e s i n t h e R e g i o n 127 XIX L o c a t i o n o f M a j o r R e t a i l S h o p p i n g A r e a s .... 128 XV. F i g u r e XX XXI X X I I X X I I I XXIV XXV XXVI X X V I I X X V I I I ^ XXIX XXX XXXI X X X I I X X X I I I XXXIV XXXV L o c a t i o n o f Sample L i n e s 'A', 'B', 'C D i s t r i b u t i o n o f L o t s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d , Sample A r e a 'A' . D i s t r i b u t i o n o f L o t s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d , Sample A r e a 'B' D i s t r i b u t i o n o f L o t s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d , Sample A r e a 'C' D i s t r i b u t i o n o f L o t s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d , Sample A r e a s 'A', 'B' and 'C' D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A c r e a g e P r o p e r t i e s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d , Sample A r e a 'A' D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A c r e a g e P r o p e r t i e s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d , Sample A r e a 'B' D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A c r e a g e P r o p e r t i e s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d , Sample A r e a 'C D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A c r e a g e P r o p e r t i e s S o l d and D e v e l o p e d , Sample A r e a s 'A', 'B' and 'C' ... A v e r a g e U n i m p r o v e d L o t S a l e P r i c e s , Sample A r e a s 'A 1, 'B' and 'C A v e r a g e U n d e v e l o p e d A c r e a g e S a l e P r i c e s , Sample A r e a s 'A', 'B' and ' C L o t P r i c e s I n d e x e d , Sample A r e a 'A' L o t P r i c e s I n d e x e d , Sample A r e a 'B' L o t P r i c e s I n d e x e d , Sample A r e a 'C L o t P r i c e s I n d e x e d , Sample A r e a s 'A' ' B '', and * C A v e r a g e U n i m p r o v e d L o t S a l e P r i c e s ( S a a n i c h , Richmond and S u r r e y ) Page . . 151 . . 159 . . 160 . . 161 ... 163 . . 166 . . 167 . . 168 . . 170 e • 17 2 . . 173 . . 175 . . 176 . . 177 . . 179 181 x v i . F i g u r e XXXVI XXXVJI X X X V I I I XXXIX XL X L I X L I I X L I I I X L I V XLV XLVI XLVI I A v e r a g e U n d e v e l o p e d A c r e a g e S a l e P r i c e s ( S a a n i c h , Richmond and S u r r e y ) ... . . R e l a t i o n s h i p o f L a s t S a l e t o D e v e l o p m e n t Y e a r , f o r S u b d i v i d e d L o t s Page . . 182 R e l a t i o n s h i p o f L a s t S a l e t o D e v e l o p m e n t Y e a r , f o r A c r e a g e P r o p e r t y S a l e s o f U n i m p r o v e d L o t s by Z o n i n g C l a s s i - f i c a t i o n , Sample A r e a s 'A', 'B' and 'C .. S a l e o f A c r e a g e P r o p e r t y by Z o n i n g C l a s s i - f i c a t i o n , Sample A r e a s 'A', 'B' and 'C .. S a l e s P r i c e o f U n i m p r o v e d L o t s by Z o n i n g C l a s s i f i c a t i o n , Sample A r e a s 'A', 'B' A v e r a g e A c r e a g e P r i c e s o v e r D i s t a n c e f r o m T o l m i e and D o u g l a s S t r e e t s ( L i n e 'A') .... A v e r a g e L o t P r i c e s o v e r D i s t a n c e f r o m T o l m i e and D o u g l a s S t r e e t s ( L i n e 'A') .... A v e r a g e A c r e a g e P r i c e s o v e r D i s t a n c e f r o m T o l m i e and D o u g l a s S t r e e t s ( L i n e 'B') .... A v e r a g e L o t P r i c e s o v e r D i s t a n c e f r o m T o l m i e and D o u g l a s S t r e e t s ( L i n e 'B') .... A v e r a g e L o t P r i c e s o v e r D i s t a n c e f r o m T o l m i e and D o u g l a s S t r e e t s ( L i n e 'C') .... A v e r a g e A c r e a g e P r i c e s o v e r D i s t a n c e f r o m T o l m i e and D o u g l a s S t r e e t s ( L i n e 'C') .... 185 186 188 189 191 193 194 . 195 196 197 . . 198 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION LACKING IN NUMBERING ONLY PAGES 2-4 Land i s a p r e c i o u s r e s o u r c e w h i c h v a r i e s i n v a l u e and u s e b o t h s p a t i a l l y and t h r o u g h t i m e . I t s l o c a t i o n r e l a t i v e t o c u r r e n t e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s may l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e i t s v a l u e ; . t e c h n o l o g i c a l c hanges ... may g r e a t l y i n f l u e n c e c hanges i n t h e use t o w h i c h i t i s p u t . W i t h p r e s e n t day u r b a n e x p a n s i o n and t h e r e s u l t a n t i n t e n s e c o m p e t i t i o n f o r t h e l a n d a r o u n d c i t i e s and a l o n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r o u t e s , w i s e p l a n n i n g and f i r m c o n t r o l o f e c o n o m i c e x p a n s i o n a r e u r g e n t l y n e eded t o p r o t e c t t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t . ^ I n t h e o p i n i o n o f many, t h e use and m i s u s e o f l a n d r e s o u r c e s i n and a r o u n d u r b a n a r e a s i s one o f t h e p r i n c i p a l d o m e s t i c i s s u e s o f o u r t i m e . The p a r t i c u l a r l y r a p i d g r o w t h o c c u r r i n g on t h e f r i n g e s o f c e n t r a l c i t i e s has r e s u l t e d i n a v e r y h i g h r a t e o f l a n d u s e s h i f t s and i n c r e a s e s i n r e a l p r o - p e r t y v a l u e s i n t h e s e a r e a s . To a c e r t a i n e x t e n t , l a n d v a l u e s d i c t a t e t h e t y p e o f d e v e l o p m e n t t h a t o c c u r s i n a r e a s u n d e r g o i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n . L a nd v a l u e s a r e s u b j e c t t o t h e d e m a nd/supply f o r c e s o f t h e m a r k e t p l a c e , and l a n d i t s e l f , as a commodity, i s s u s c e p t i b l e t o t h e a c t i o n s o f d e v e l o p e r s , i n v e s t o r s and s p e c u l a t o r s . I n f a c t , l a n d s p e c u l a t o r s have f r e q u e n t l y b een b l a m e d f o r c a u s i n g , o r a t l e a s t c o n t r i b u t i n g t o , b o t h t h e c u r r e n t r i s e i n l a n d p r i c e s and t h e s p r a w l - l i k e p a t t e r n o f d e v e l o p m e n t s p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t on u r b a n p e r i - p h e r a l a r e a s . The p u r p o s e o f t h i s ..thesis i s t o examine t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e s e c l a i m s . T h e r e i s no q u e s t i o n t h a t t h e p r i c e o f u r b a n and s u b u r b a n l a n d i n most o f t h e W e s t e r n W o r l d has b e e n i n c r e a s - i n g a t a p a r t i c u l a r l y r a p i d r a t e . M o r e o v e r , l a n d v a l u e i n c r e a s e s a p p e a r t o be c o n s i s t e n t l y and d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y g r e a t e r t h a n t h e a s s o c i a t e d r i s e i n e i t h e r g e n e r a l consumer p r i c e s o r c o s t s o f r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n . The p r i c e o f u n d e v e l o p e d u r b a n l a n d i s an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n f l u e n c i n g b o t h t h e q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g made a v a i l a b l e , and as s u c h , c o n s t i t u t e s a r e l e v a n t s o c i a l c o n c e r n . A c c o r d i n g t o s t a t i s t i c s c o m p i l e d by C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n (CMHC), l a n d c o s t s f o r r e s i d e n t i a l p u r p o s e s i n Canada have i n c r e a s e d f r o m $684 p e r l o t i n 1949 t o $4,258 i n 1970 -- more t h a n a s i x f o l d i n c r e a s e i n 21 y e a r s . D u r i n g t h e same p e r i o d , t h e c o s t o f r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n has o n l y s l i g h t l y more t h a n d o u b l e d , f r o m $7,751 t o $16,904, and t h e consumer p r i c e i n d e x has i n c r e a s e d by 67 p e r c e n t . T a b l e 1 l i s t s c o m p l e t e f i g u r e s f o r t h e s e t h r e e e l e m e n t s . As t h e s e s t a t i s t i c s a r e b a s e d on n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e s , t h e y a r e somewhat c o n s e r v a t i v e when compared t o t h e t r e n d s e v i d - e n t i n t h e s t u d y a r e a . 7. Table 1 COST OF RESIDENTIAL LAND AND CONSTRUCTION, AND CONSUMER PRICE INDICES, 1949-1970 Cost of Cost of Consumer Year Land C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i c e Index * $ $ 1949 684 7,751 100.0 1950 n. a. n. a. 102.9 1951 1,048 9,568 113. 7 1952 n.'a. n. a. 116. 5 1953 n. a. n. a. 115. 5 1954 1,687 10,472 , 116.2 1955 1,819 10,777 116.4 1956 2,025 11,574 118.1 1957 2,260 11,766 121.9 1958 2,471 11,762 125.1 1959 2,533 11,946 126. 5 1960 2,473 11,920 128.0 1961 2,602 12,041 129.2 1962 2,783 12,204 130. 7 1963 2,973 12,448 133. 0 1964 3,082 13,100 135.4 1965 3,095 13,992 138. 7 1966 3,480 15,457 143.9 1967 3,580 15,669 149.0 1968 3,746 15,774 155.2 1969 4,201 17,197 162.1 1970 4,258 16,904 167.6 Source CMHC, Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s 1970, Table 85, p. 70. S t a t i s t i c s Canada. 8. The u r b a n f r i n g e a r e a s e l e c t e d f o r t h i s s t u d y was t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , a community o f some 70,000 i m m e d i a t e l y n o r t h o f t h e C i t y o f V i c t o r i a . A l t h o u g h t h e m e t h o d o l o g y and a p p r o a c h u s e d t o o b t a i n t h e d a t a i s d e t a i l e d i n C h a p t e r I V , a b r i e f o u t l i n e i s a p p r o p r i a t e a t t h i s s t a g e . I n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e c h a n g i n g s e l l i n g p r i c e s , h o l d i n g p e r i o d s , owner c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and d e v e l o p - ment i n f o r m a t i o n was o b t a i n e d f o r o v e r 2600 s e p a r a t e p r o - p e r t i e s i n t h e s t u d y a r e a -- a 13 p e r c e n t sample o f a l l t a x a b l e u n i t s i n S a a n i c h . P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t s t a t i s t i c s , m u n i c i p a l a s s e s s m e n t r o l e s , and t h e s e a r c h i n g o f t i t l e s i n t h e l a n d r e g i s t r y o f f i c e were u s e d t o o b t a i n t h e r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n f o r e a c h p r o p e r t y . A 21 y e a r t i m e h o r i z o n (1549-1970) was s e l e c t e d i n o r d e r t o encompass s e v e r a l s t a g e s o f b u s i n e s s a c t i v i t y . CHAPTER ORGANIZATION To many p e r s o n s , " l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n " i s a t e r m f r o u g h t w i t h e m o t i o n a l o v e r t o n e s . I t i s t h e i n t e n t i o n o f C h a p t e r I I t o p r e s e n t a g e n e r a l , u n e m o t i o n a l d i s c u s s i o n on t h e c o n c e p t o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n . I n c l u d e d i n t h i s d i s - c u s s i o n a r e t o p i c s s u c h as t h e ec o n o m i c and s o c i a l i m p l i c - a t i o n s o f t h e N o r t h A m e r i c a n a t t i t u d e t o w a r d s l a n d r e s - o u r c e s , t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d f a c i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n , t h e p resumed e f f e c t s o f s p e c u l a t i o n , and an a n a l y s i s o f p o p u l a r m i s c o n c e p t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g s p e c u l a t i o n . I n any d i s c u s s i o n o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n , t h e w h o l e s u b j e c t o f p r i v a t e l a n d o w n e r s h i p and p u b l i c c o n t r o l s be- comes a c r i t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n . I n l i g h t o f t h i s , C h a p t e r I I I v i e w s t h e s u b j e c t o f l a n d v a l u e s and s p e c u l a t i o n i n r e - l a t i o n t o t h e f u n d a m e n t a l c o n c e p t s u n d e r l y i n g t h e c o n t r o l o f l a n d u s e . The m a i n a r e a s t o be c o n s i d e r e d i n c l u d e t h e pub- l i c i n t e r e s t i n l a n d r e s o u r c e s i n g e n e r a l , t h e N o r t h A m e r i c a n s y s t e m o f l a n d t e n u r e , t h e c a s e f o r p u b l i c i n t e r v e n t i o n i n l a n d u s e s , as w e l l as t h e methods f o r c o n t r o l l i n g l a n d u s e . As m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r , t h e a c t u a l s c o p e and m e t h o d o l o g y o f t h e s t u d y w i l l be o u t l i n e d i n C h a p t e r I V . T h i s w i l l i n - c l u d e a d i s c u s s i o n o f d a t a s o u r c e s and s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e . A s p e c i a l c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m was c r e a t e d , u s i n g e l e m e n t s o f m u l t i - v a r i a t e a n a l y s i s , i n o r d e r t o a s s e m b l e t h e v a r i o u s d a t a i n p u t s i n t o a w o r k a b l e f o r m a t . C h a p t e r V w i l l i n v e s t i g a t e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s t u d y a r e a . The h i s t o r i c a l and s p a t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e 10. V i c t o r i a a r e a w i l l be t r a c e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f e s t a b l i s h - i n g t h e p r e s e n t p o s i t i o n o f S a a n i c h as an i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t i n t h e r e g i o n a l c o n t e x t . A n a l y s i s o f t h e sample d a t a w i l l be u n d e r t a k e n i n C h a p t e r V I . I n c l u d e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r w i l l be a d i s c u s s i o n of t h e p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c e r t a i n u n a v o i d a b l e d e f i c - i e n c i e s i n t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , and an a n a l y s i s o f p r i c e c h anges and d e v e l o p m e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The m a j o r c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h e s t u d y w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n C h a p t e r V I I , a l o n g w i t h t h e r e l e v a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s and s u g g e s t i o n s f o r p o s s i b l e f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i n t h i s a r e a . REFERENCE C h a r l e s N. F o r e w a r d , L a n d Use o f t h e V i c t o r i a A r e a , B.C., G e o g r a p h i c a l P a p e r No. 4 3 , Geo- g r a p h i c a l B r a n c h , D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y , M i n e and R e s o u r c e s , O t t a w a , Queen's P r i n t e r , 1969 page 1. CHAPTER I I LAND SPECULATION: A GENERAL DISCUSSION INTRODUCTION As t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f u r b a n a r e a s i n c r e a s e s and sub- s e q u e n t l y t h e demand f o r l a n d f o r u r b a n u s e s r i s e s , c i t i e s t e n d t o s p r e a d o u t w a r d , e n c r o a c h i n g upon l a n d i n t h e s u b - u r b a n zone. The movement i s a c o n t i n u a l p r o c e s s w h i c h con- v e r t s l a n d p r e v i o u s l y u s e d f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p u r p o s e s i n t o u r b a n u s e . W i t h t h i s i n m i n d , t h e v a l u e o f any u n i t o f v a c a n t f r i n g e l a n d may be c o n s i d e r e d as b e i n g i n two p a r t s - - t h e v a l u e i n i t s e x i s t i n g u s e , and i t s p o t e n t i a l d e v e l o p - ment v a l u e . D e v e l o p m e n t v a l u e i s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e v a l u e o f l a n d i n i t s e x i s t i n g u s e and the v a l u e i n i t s h i g h e s t and b e s t use."*" The m a j o r p o r t i o n o f u r b a n l a n d has no d e v e l o p m e n t v a l u e b e c a u s e t h e e x i s t i n g use o f most u r b a n l a n d i s a l s o i t s h i g h e s t and b e s t u s e . I n t h e c a s e o f v a - c a n t l a n d on t h e u r b a n f r i n g e where t h e h i g h e s t and b e s t use i s some t y p e o f u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e d e v e l o p m e n t v a - l u e may be s u b s t a n t i a l . By t a k i n g a d v a n t a g e o f t h e f o r c e s w o r k i n g t o w a r d s i n c r e a s i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n , t h e l a n d owner o r i n v e s t o r a t t e m p t s t o make a p r o f i t f r o m r i s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t v a l u e s . Land s p e c u l a t i o n may be d e f i n e d as t h e h o l d i n g o f l a n d r e s o u r c e s i n t h e i r p r e s e n t u s e s - - a n d o f t e n i n l o w e r u s e s t h a n t h o s e j u s t i f i e d by the p r e v a i l i n g m a r k e t c o n d i - t i o n s - - w h i l e a w a i t i n g an e x p e c t e d i n c r e a s e i n p r o p e r t y 2 s a l e s v a l u e s . The u s u a l method o f o p e r a t i o n i s t o a c q u i r e b l o c k s o f l a n d w e l l i n a d v a n c e o f u r b a n g r o w t h and t o h o l d them o f f t h e m a r k e t u n t i l s u c h t i m e as t h e y a r e r e a d y f o r u r b a n uses.. As B a r l o w e n o t e s , t h e t e r m " l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n " i s a l s o u s e d i n o t h e r c o n t e x t s : I t i s sometimes a p p l i e d t o any h o l d i n g s o f l a n d e d p r o p e r t y w i t h t h e hope t h a t i t can l a t e r be s o l d a t a p r o f i t . P r a c t i c a l l y a l l p r o p e r t y owners q u a l i f y as s p e c u l a t o r s u n d e r t h i s d e f i n i t i o n . A t t i m e s , i t i s a l s o u s e d t o d e s c r i b e t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f b u i l d e r s and l a n d d e v e l o p e r s who d e v e l o p f a r m s , s u b d i v i s i o n s , h o u s e s , s h o p p i n g c e n t e r s , and o t h e r p r o p e r t i e s on t h e i r own w i t h t h e i n t e n t Of s e l l i n g them a t a p r o f i t a f t e r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s i s c o m p l e t e d . These o p e r a t o r s have some c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n common w i t h t h e t r a - d i t i o n a l s p e c u l a t o r ; b u t t h e y a r e o f t e n i n - t e r e s t e d m o s t l y i n t h e use o f t h e i r d e v e l o p - ment p r o g r a m s as a means o f m a r k e t i n g t h e i r l a b o r and m a n a g e r i a l a b i l i t i e s . . T h i s c h a p t e r e x a m i n e s t h e c o n c e p t o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n w i t h i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f r a m e w o r k : 1 . S p e c u l a t i o n i n g e n e r a l commodity m a r k e t s ; 2. N o r t h A m e r i c a n a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d l a n d ; 3 . L a n d s p e c u l a t i o n -- t h e p r e s u m e d e f f e c t s ; 4. The m a r k e t f o r u n d e v e l o p e d u r b a n f r i n g e l a n d ; a n d , 5. Land s p e c u l a t i o n r e c o n s i d e r e d . 1 5 . SPECULATION IN GENERAL COMMODITY MARKETS S p e c u l a t i o n i s a c o n t i n u i n g p r o c e s s t h a t w i l l o c c u r i n a l m o s t any m a r k e t w h i c h i s s u b j e c t t o u n c e r t a i n t y o r i m p e r f e c t i o n s . M o st e c o n o m i s t s c o n s i d e r t h a t s p e c u l a t i o n s e r v e s a u s e f u l p u r p o s e i n t h a t i t c a n l e a d t o a b e t t e r a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s o v e r t i m e . T h i s i s g e n e r a l l y t r u e f o r s p e c u l a t i o n i n c o m m o d i t i e s s u c h as w h e a t , m i n e r a l s , l u m b e r , and s p e c u l a t i o n i n t h e s e m a r k e t s i s r a r e l y c r i t i - c i z e d by t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c . A c c o r d i n g t o S a m u e l s o n and S c o t t , "The i n t e l l i g e n t p r o f i t - s e e k i n g a c t i o n o f s p e c u l a - t o r s and a r b i t r a g e r s t e n d s t o c r e a t e c e r t a i n d e f i n i t e e q u i l i b r i u m p a t t e r n s o f p r i c e o v e r t i m e and s p a c e . W h e n a commodity has d i f f e r e n t p r i c e s a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s ( o r a t t h e same t i m e i n d i f f e r e n t a r e a s ) , t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r p r o f i t e x i s t s p r o v i d i n g t h a t t h e c o s t s o f h o l d i n g i t o v e r t i m e f o r l a t e r s a l e ( o r o f t r a n s f e r r i n g i t f o r i m m e d i a t e s a l e ) can be e s t i m a t e d w i t h r e a s o n a b l e a c c u r a c y , and p r o - v i d i n g t h a t t h e c o s t s a r e n o t so h i g h as t o d i s c o u r a g e an i n d i v i d u a l f r o m c o m m i t t i n g c u r r e n t f u n d s t o i t s p u r c h a s e . I n commodity m a r k e t s , s p e c u l a t o r s o p e r a t e by t a k i n g a d v a n t a g e o f s p a t i a l and t e m p o r a l p r i c e d i f f e r e n c e s e x i s - t i n g b e t ween m a r k e t s f o r g i v e n c o m m o d i t i e s , by b u y i n g a t th e l o w e r p r i c e s and s e l l i n g a t the h i g h e r p r i c e s , t h e r e b y m a k i n g a p r o f i t f o r t h e m s e l v e s - - a n d a t t he same t i m e , t e n d i n g t o e q u a l i z e t h e p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s . As a r u l e , s p e c u l a t o r s do n o t buy c o m m o d i t i e s w i t h t h e i n t e n t o f u s i n g them i n t h e u s u a l s e n s e ; r a t h e r t h e y a r e m o t i v a t e d by t h e e x p e c t a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l s o r f u - t u r e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . ^ To t h e e x t e n t t h a t s p e c u l a t o r s c a n a c c u r a t e l y f o r e c a s t t h e f u t u r e s c a r c i t y o f a c o m m o d i t y , t h e i r a c t i o n c a n r e s u l t i n s t a b i l i z a t i o n o f f o r e s e e a b l e p r i c e f l u c t u a t i o n s o v e r a g i v e n p e r i o d o f t i m e . By b u y i n g c o m m o d i t i e s i n one p e r i o d f o r r e l e a s e i n a f u t u r e p e r i o d , s p e c u l a t o r s c a u s e ( 1 ) a w i t h d r a w a l o f p r e s e n t s u p p l y , (2) a t e m p o r a r y i n c r e a s e i n p r e s e n t p r i c e , (3) an i n c r e a s e i n amount s t o r e d , (4) an i n c r e a s e i n f u t u r e s u p p l y , a n d , (5) a r e d u c t i o n i n f u t u r e p r i c e - - t h e end r e s u l t b e i n g a r e l a - t i v e s t a b i l i z a t i o n o f p r i c e and c o n s u m p t i o n o v e r t i m e . T h u s , i n t h e commodity m a r k e t a t l e a s t , s p e c u l a t o r s p e r - f o r m a s o c i a l l y b e n e f i c i a l f u n c t i o n . The a c t i o n s o f a s i n g l e s p e c u l a t o r on a p a r t i c u l a r c ommodity w i l l n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t t h e m a r k e t p r i c e , u n l e s s t h e m a r k e t happens t o be s e v e r e l y r e s t r i c t e d . I f t h i s i n d e e d i s t h e c a s e , and t h e m a r k e t p r i c e i s d e f i n i t e l y i n f l u e n c e d by t h e d e c i s i o n o f one s p e c u l a t o r t o buy o r s e l l , "... t h e q u e s t i o n o f monopoly c o n t r o l becomes more i m p o r t a n t t h a t t h a t o f s p e c u l a t i o n . " On t h e o t h e r h a n d , whenever t h e r e a r e a l a r g e number o f s p e c u l a t o r s i n a g i v e n m a r k e t , c o m p e t i t i o n among them w i l l e f f e c t i v e l y r e d u c e i n - d i v i d u a l g a i n s , and p e r m i t none t o make e x c e s s i v e p r o f i t s o v e r t h e c o s t s t h e y i n c u r - - w h i c h i n c l u d e , o f c o u r s e , t h e wages n e c e s s a r y t o keep them i n t h i s l i n e o f a c t i v i t y . T h u s , * a l t h o u g h " t h e r e i s s o m e t h i n g v a g u e l y u n p l e a s a n t a b o u t t h e image o f t h e s p e c u l a t o r " , e c o n o m i s t s have l o n g r e c o g n i z e d t h e i m p o r t a n t r o l e s p e c u l a t i o n has i n an e f f i - c i e n t p r i c e s y s t e m . However, as MacKay c o n c l u d e s , t h e l i f e o f a s p e c u l a t o r i s n o t an e a s y one: Not o n l y does h i s e x p e c t a t i o n o f p r o f i t depend a l m o s t e n t i r e l y on t h e a c t i o n s o f o t h e r s , b u t i f he a p p e a r s t o be d o i n g w e l l he w i l l f a c e c o m p e t i - t i o n f r o m o t h e r s p e c u l a t o r s who w i s h t o g e t i n on a good t h i n g . T h e r e i s no c e r t a i n t y t h a t a s p e c u l a t o r w i l l make any p r o f i t , much l e s s a l a r g e o ne, and t h e chance he may l o s e money i s a l w a y s p r e s e n t . i n I t i s w o r t h n o t i n g h e r e t h a t , as the t e r m i t s e l f i m p l i e s , e x c e s s i v e s p e c u l a t i o n i s o f t e n d e t r i m e n t a l t o t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t by c a u s i n g d i s t o r t i o n s and i n e f f i c i e n c i e s i n t h e p r i c e mechanism. However, e x c e s s i v e s p e c u l a t i o n i n commodity m a r k e t s c a n a l w a y s be c u r b e d - - v a r i o u s means a r e a v a i l a b l e t o e f f e c t t h i s , b u t t h e f u n d a m e n t a l method o f f o r c i n g p r i c e s down i s t o s i m p l y i n c r e a s e s u p p l y i n r e l a - t i o n t o demand. The u n d e r l y i n g q u e s t i o n o f s p e c u l a t i o n i n l a n d c a n be more f u l l y u n d e r s t o o d by e x a m i n i n g b o t h t h e c a u s e s o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n and the p r o b l e m s w h i c h a r i s e f r o m i t . B e f o r e 18. a t t e m p t i n g t h i s , h o w e v e r , i t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t o examine t h e g e n e r a l a t t i t u d e t o w a r d l a n d as a r e s o u r c e i n N o r t h A m e r i c a . NORTH. AMERICAN ATTITUDES TOWARD LAND The p r e v a l e n t a t t i t u d e i n N o r t h A m e r i c a t o w a r d l a n d has b e e n t e m p e r e d b y t h e b e l i e f t h a t l a n d as a r e s o u r c e i s v i r t u a l l y l i m i t l e s s . T h i s n o t i o n , b r e d d u r i n g t h e e a r l y s e t t l e m e n t d a y s , h a s b e e n a d o m i n a n t f a c t o r i n t h e d e v e l o p - ment o f both. Canada and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . , I n 1 796, A l b e r t G a l l a t i n , an A m e r i c a n d i p l o m a t and o n e - t i m e S e c r e t a r y o f t h e T r e a s u r y , r e m a r k e d t h a t , " I f t h e c a u s e o f t h e h a p p i n e s s o f t h i s c o u n t r y was e x a m i n e d i n t o , i t w o u l d be f o u n d t o a r i s e as much f r o m t h e g r e a t p l e n t y o f l a n d i n p r o p o r t i o n t o t h e i n h a b i t a n t s ... as f r o m t h e wisdom o f t h e i r p o l i t i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n s " . R e l a t e d t o t h i s c o l l e c t i v e c o n f i d e n c e t h a t t h e s u p - p l y o f l a n d i s somehow u n l i m i t e d , i s t h e g e n e r a l u n c o n c e r n f o r t h e r a t e a t w h i c h l a n d i s consumed by new d e v e l o p m e n t 1 2 -- an a t t i t u d e t h a t has been t e r m e d " p r a i r i e p s y c h o l o g y " . On t o p o f t h i s , has been t h e s e e m i n g i n d i f f e r e n c e -- u n t i l c o m p a r a t i v e l y r e c e n t l y -- t o w a r d t h e g e n e r a l s t a n d a r d o f l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t . As Yearwood o b s e r v e s , t h e d o m i n a n t A m e r i c a n a t t i t u d e c o n c e r n i n g l a n d us-e i s one o f "... l i t t l e c o n c e r n f o r t h e r a t e a t w h i c h l a n d i s u s e d and a b e l i e f 19. t h a t a l l d e v e l o p m e n t i s n e c e s s a r i l y and i n h e r e n t l y g o o d , 13 p r o b a b l y b e c a u s e someone i s m a k i n g money o u t o f i t " . A B r i t i s h o b s e r v e r once r e m a r k e d t h a t , "One o f t h e most marked c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f A m e r i c a n d e v e l o p m e n t i s i t s im- 14 p'ermanence" and t h a t , d e s p i t e t h e rampant g r o w t h , "... i t i s v e r y r a r e i n A m e r i c a t o e n c o u n t e r any a n t i p a t h y t o new d e v e l o p m e n t . Q u i t e t h e o p p o s i t e i s u s u a l l y t h e 15 c a s e " . T h i s a t t i t u d e seems t o be q u i t e j u s t i f i e d , be- c a u s e , t o most N o r t h A m e r i c a n s , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , "... d e v e - l o p m e n t i s p r o g r e s s , e ven i f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t i s s u b s t a n - d a r d , p r e m a t u r e , i m p r o p e r l y l o c a t e d , and a d r a i n on t h e p u b l i c p u r s e " . C l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d " l i m i t - l e s s " l a n d r e s o u r c e s and i n c e s s a n t d e v e l o p m e n t , i s t h e a c - c e p t e d p r a c t i c e o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o D e l a f o n s , " S p e c u l a t i o n i n l a n d has b e e n a t r a d i t i o n i n A m e r i c a and was i n f a c t a m a j o r m o t i v a t i n g f o r c e i n o p e n i n g up t h e West.... T h i s s p e c u l a t i v e b e n t s t i l l c o l o r s A m e r i c a n a t t i - t u d e s t o w a r d t h e l a n d and i s a f a c t o r t o be r e c k o n e d w i t h 17 i n a t t e m p t i n g t o c o n t r o l i t s u s e " . P r o m o t i o n a l l i t e r a - t u r e , i n v i t i n g i n v e s t m e n t s i n l a n d , i s w i d e s p r e a d . S e v e r a l y e a r s ago t h e book e n t i t l e d , How I T u r n e d a Thousand D o l - l a r s I n t o a M i l l i o n i n R e a l E s t a t e -- I n My S p a r e Time, t o p p e d the b e s t s e l l e r l i s t f o r more t h a n e i g h t months. R e c e n t l y , a m a j o r a r t i c l e i n M a c l e a n ' s u r g e d C a n a d i a n s t o 20. t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f t h e s p e c u l a t i v e e l e m e n t i n l a n d . The a r t i c l e , n e v e r once m e n t i o n i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f w i d e s p r e a d l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n on t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c , e n t i c e d r e a d e r s w i t h t h e t e m p t i n g h e a d l i n e , " T h i s s m a l l - t o w n b a r b e r i s n ' t any s m a r t e r t h a n y o u a r e . BUT h e ' s a p a r t - t i m e l a n d s p e c u l a t o r and s o o n h e ' l l be w o r t h $400,000. You c o u l d do i t t o o The e n s u i n g s t o r y p r a i s e d s p e c u l a t o r s as t h e "...new k i n d o f C a n a d i a n m i n i - t y c o o n , men o f l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s who a r e 1 Q l i v i n g q u i t e l i t e r a l l y o f f t h e f a t o f t h e l a n d " . The f o r e g o i n g s e c t i o n has b r i e f l y s u m m a r i z e d what has b e e n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l a t t i t u d e t o w a r d s l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t i n N o r t h A m e r i c a -- t h e r e c o g n i z e d , a c c e p t e d and a c c l a i m e d p r o c e d u r e o f " g e t i n , g e t r i c h , g e t o u t " , and t h e f r o n t i e r , t r a i l b l a z i n g m e n t a l i t y , c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a s t r i k i n g i n d i f f - e r e n c e as t o t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c o n s e q u e n c e s . I t w i l l be t h e p u r p o s e o f a l a t e r c h a p t e r t o o u t l i n e r e a s o n s why t h i s a t t i t u d e must c h a n g e , i f , as Y e a rwood s t a t e s , t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c i s t o r e a l i z e "...whose ox i s b e i n g g o r e d when s p e c - u l a t o r s r e a p a w i n d f a l l . And an ox i s _ b e i n g g o r e d ; as t h e v a r i o u s s y s t e m a t i c w o r k s on s p e c u l a t i o n document, t h e t o t a l community -- and t h e t a x p a y e r -- i s t h e l o s e r " . ^ 0 LAND SPECULATION - - THE PRESUMED EFFECTS The e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n on s p e c u l a t i o n i n g e n e r a l commodity m a r k e t s p o i n t e d o u t t h e v a l u e t o t h e economy o f s p e c u l a t i o n i n t h o s e p a r t i c u l a r m a r k e t s . What was t h e n s t a t e d i s g e n e r a l l y a p p l i c a b l e t o any p r o d u c t o r r e s o u r c e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by h a v i n g a p a r t i c u l a r l y f l u c t u a t i n g s u p p l y . S p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y . i n l a n d r e s o u r c e s , h o w e v e r , i s a c o n - t r o v e r s i a l s u b j e c t t o s a y t h e l e a s t . A l t h o u g h c o m p e t i t i o n e x i s t s b e t w e e n s e l l e r s i n t h e l a n d m a r k e t , i n t h e o p i n i o n o f many, the r e s u l t s o f s u c h c o m p e t i t i o n a r e n o t as b e n e f i c i a l as t h o s e r e s u l t s t h a t n o r m a l l y a c c r u e f r o m c o m p e t i t i o n i n many f i e l d s o f p r o d u c - t i o n . B r y a n t , f o r e x a m p l e , s t a t e s t h a t t h e o v e r a l l e f f e c t o f c o m p e t i t i o n i n t h e l a n d m a r k e t i s " . . . s i m p l y an u n d e s i - 2 i r a b l e d i s t o r t i o n o f t h e t r e n d o f u r b a n g r o w t h " . As a c i t y grows "... t h e d i r e c t i o n s o f i t s g r o w t h a r e p r e t t y w e l l d e t e r m i n e d by p h y s i c a l f a c t o r s , n a t u r a l o r man-made, so t h a t demand i s c o n s t a n t l y a h ead o f s u p p l y ... n o r m a l m a r k e t a d j u s t m e n t s s i m p l y do n o t o p e r a t e i n t h e s e c i r c u m - 22 s t a n c e s " . A l t h o u g h t r a d i t i o n and f r e e e n t e r p r i s e have l o n g d e c r e e d t h a t "... l a n d u s e s a r e most e f f i c i e n t l y o r g a n i z e d 2 3 i f d e c i s i o n s a r e made by t h e m a r k e t ..." , t h e r e a r e many who w o u l d d i s a g r e e . The " m a r k e t " ... i s n o t some a b s t r a c t e n t i t y . I t i s made up o f p e o p l e , some o f them u n s u s p e c t i n g , u n i n f o r m e d p u r - c h a s e r s , some o f them e t h i c a l men i n t h e t d e v e l o p m e n t b u s i n e s s , some o f them s p e c u l a t o r s , and some o f them, a p p a r e n t l y , j u s t c r o o k s . S t i l l , u n t i l v e r y r e c e n t t i m e s , l a n d - u s e d e c i s i o n s were made by p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s -- t h e r e a l t o r s , l a n d d e v e l o p e r s , and t h e b a n k e r s , a l l o f whom were i n t e r e s t e d i n p e r s o n a l p r o f i t . 2 4 I n t h e same v e i n , The E c o n o m i s t n o t e s t h a t : No o t h e r m a r k e t i s so d i s t o r t e d , so i m p e r f e c t , so j e r k y i n i t s a c t i o n and hemmed i n by t h e e f f e c t s -- i n t e n d e d and u n i n t e n d e d - - o f p u b l i c r e g u l a t i o n s . The j e r k i n e s s i s v i r t u a l l y i n e v i t a b l e . B u i l d i n g s a r e l o n g - l i v e d ; c h a n g e s o f o w n e r s h i p , w h e t h e r o f f r e e h o l d o r l e a s e , o c c u r a t l o n g i n t e r v a l s and s p o r a d i c a l l y ; l a n d e f f e c t i v e l y on t h e m a r k e t a t any p a r t i c u l a r moment i s o n l y a s c a t t e r e d f r a c t i o n o f t h e t o t a l . 2 $ C o n s e q u e n t l y , i n t h e words o f F o g a r t y , "... myth and f a c t become i n e x t r i c a b l y m i x e d , and t h e r e s u l t , i t has b e e n s a i d c y n i c a l l y , i s t h a t r e a l e s t a t e i s p e r h a p s t h e o n l y m a r k e t where t h e s u c c e s s f u l g u e s s e r c a n r e l y on one c o n - 2 6 s t a n t -- t h e i g n o r a n c e o f t h e r e s t o f t h e w o r l d " . The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c f r a g m e n t a t i o n o f l a n d o w n e r s h i p has been a c c u s e d o f p r e v e n t i n g t h e most e f f i c i e n t use o f 2 7 u r b a n l a n d . H e r e t h e argument i s t h a t i n e f f i c i e n c i e s i n l a n d - u s e may r e s u l t f r o m i n s t a n c e s where t h e t h e o r e t i - c a l l y h i g h e s t and b e s t use o f a p a r t i c u l a r a r e w o u l d n e c e s s i t a t e t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f s i t e s p r e v i o u s l y u s e d s e p a r a t e l y , b u t one o r more l a n d - o w n e r s r e f u s e t o a l l o w h i s l a n d t o be u s e d f o r s u c h a p u r p o s e . T h i s r e f u s a l may be a t t r i b u t a b l e t o a v a r i e t y o f r e a s o n s , t h e most l i k e l y b e i n g t h e d e s i r e t o t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f t h e s o - c a l l e d " m o n o p o l i s t i c p o s i t i o n " . A c c o r d i n g t o L e a n , " T h e r e i s a l - ways a p o t e n t i a l m o n o p o l i s t i c e l e m e n t i n t h e o w n e r s h i p o f l a n d i n so f a r as e v e r y p l o t i s u n i q u e i n i t s s p a t i a l r e - 2 8 l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h o t h e r p l o t s o f l a n d " . I n u r b a n a r e a s p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e r e may be s e v e r a l m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e de- mands f o r t h e use o f a p i e c e o f l a n d , and c i t y g r o w t h o n l y s e r v e s t o m u l t i p l y demands f o r any g i v e n s i t e w h e t h e r i t be on t h e f r i n g e a r e a o r n e a r t h e c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s - t r i c t . A t. t h e o u t s e t i t was s t a t e d t h a t v e r y l i t t l e e m p i r i - c a l r e s e a r c h has been u n d e r t a k e n t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e p r o f i t s d e r i v e d f r o m l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n , t h e e f f e c t s o f s p e c u l a t i o n on g e n e r a l p r i c e l e v e l s and t h e p r o c e s s o f c h a n g i n g p r o - p e r t y v a l u e s o v e r t i m e . However, s e v e r a l a u t h o r s have s e e n f i t t o make a t l e a s t t e n t a t i v e o b s e r v a t i o n s on t h e g e n e r a l e f f e c t s o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n . F r e n z i e d c o m p e t i t i o n f o r l a n d , p a r t i c u l a r y on t h e u r b a n f r i n g e , has r e s u l t e d i n "... u n b r i d l e d l a n d s u b d i v i - s i o n as a g e t - r i c h - q u i c k scheme ... ' ( l e a v i n g ) u g l y s c a r s on n e a r l y e v e r y m a j o r c i t y and many o f the s m a l l e r c i t i e s 29 i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " . S p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y i s p r e v a - l e n t i n f r i n g e a r e a s b e c a u s e , as Whyte s t a t e s , "... j u s t b e y o n d t o d a y ' s s u b u r b i a t h e r e i s l i t t l e p l a n n i n g , and t h e d e v e l o p m e n t i s b e i n g l e f t a l m o s t e n t i r e l y i n t h e hands o f 30 t h e s p e c u l a t i v e b u i l d e r " . The s p e c u l a t o r a n d / o r d e v e - l o p e r i s n a t u r a l l y a t t r a c t e d as much by t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f r e l a t i v e l y i n e x p e n s i v e l a n d , as b y t h e p r e s e n c e o f m i n i - mal r e g u l a t i o n s . He " ... f o l l o w s t h e l i n e o f l e a s t r e - s i s t a n c e , and i n h i s wake i s l e f t a h i t - o r - m i s s p a t t e r n 31 o f d e v e l o p m e n t " . A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s a l w a y s a g r e a t d e a l o f p u b l i c i t y a b o u t s p e c u l a t o r s who have made q u i c k f o r t u n e s , " l e s s i s 3 2 s a i d c o n c e r n i n g t h e b l i g h t e d hopes o r i n v e s t m e n t s l o s t " . E v e n l e s s , as Yearwood o b s e r v e s , - i s h e a r d c o n c e r n i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f s p e c u l a t i o n on t h e p u b l i c i n g e n e r a l ; "The community l o s e s t h r o u g h l o s s o f r e v e n u e when l a n d i s t a k e n f r o m a p r o d u c t i v e use t o be o f f e r e d f o r s p e c u l a t i v e p u r - p o s e s , when s c a t t e r e d s u b d i v i s i o n s w i t h o u t t h e n e c e s s a r y s e r v i c e s and f a c i l i t i e s must be s e r v e d , and when f o r e - c l o s u r e s and d e f a u l t s become numerous, and when t a x e s a r e i n c r e a s e d . By i t s v e r y n a t u r e and method o f o c c u r r e n c e s p e c u - l a t i o n i n l a n d has b e e n a c c u s e d o f n u l l i f y i n g t h e p l a n n i n g f u c t i o n o f c o m m u n i t i e s . F a g i n s t a t e ' s t h a t b e c a u s e c o - o r - d i n a t i o n o f p l a n n i n g i n v o l v e s b o t h s p a c e and t i m e , t h e 25. e f f e c t i v e p l a n n i n g n e c e s s a r y t o e n c o u r a g e o r d e r l y p a t t e r n s o f d e v e l o p m e n t r e q u i r e s s i m u l t a n e o u s a t t e n t i o n . t o b o t h . " ^ U n f o r t u n a t e l y , h o w e v e r , s p e c u l a t i o n a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t s b o t h t h e s e q u e n c e and t h e tempo, o r r a t e , o f m u n i c i p a l d e v e l o p - ment. The o v e r a l l e f f e c t s c a n b e s t be i l l u s t r a t e d i f , f o r p u r p o s e s o f p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n , s p e c u l a t i v e a c - t i v i t y i s c o n s i d e r e d as h a v i n g e i t h e r o f t h e f o l l o w i n g i m m e d i a t e r e s u l t s : (a) t h e e x c e s s i v e s u b d i v i s i o n o f p a r c e l s o f l a n d , and (b) t h e c o m p l e t e w i t h h o l d i n g o f e n t i r e p a r c e l s f r o m d e v e l o p m e n t o f any k i n d . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e f o r m e r r e s u l t , M e r r i a m i n v e s t i - g a t e d t h e e f f e c t s o f e x c e s s i v e s u b d i v i s i o n i n t h e e a r l y 1940's and o b s e r v e d t h a t : The s p r e a d o f a c i t y b y u n p l a n n e d s u b - d i v i d i n g , m o t i v a t e d o n l y by t h e i n d i v i d u a l owner's d e s i r e f o r p r o f i t , has p r o v e d t o be e x t r e m e l y w a s t e f u l . I n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h o u r t r a d i t i o n a l t o l e r a n c e f o r h a p h a z a r d m e t h o d s , t h e t y p i c a l s u b d i v i d e r , i n t e r e s t e d p r i m a r i l y i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f h i s own l a n d , has p a i d l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n t o t h e b r o a d e r needs and d e s i r e s o f t h e community. Unused s i d e w a l k s , s t r e e t s , s e wer and w a t e r m a i n s , f i r e p l u g s , s t r e e t l i g h t s , and l o n e l y h o u s e s on u n k e p t l o t s r e m a i n as d i s m a l r e - m i n d e r s o f t h i s u n b r i d l e d e x p a n s i o n . x K He c i t e s f i g u r e s f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t h a t i n d i c a t e a v e r y l a r g e s u r p l u s o f s u b d i v i d e d l o t s , w i t h e s t i m a t e s as h i g h as 15,000,000 e x c e s s l o t s . A c c o r d i n g t o M e r r i a m the f o l l o w i n g f i g u r e s a r e i l l u s t r a t i v e o f t h e g e n e r a l 26. 37 s i t u a t i o n : A r e a L o t s L o t s P r o p o r t i o n - P l o t t e d N o t U s e d N o t U s e d M i l w a u k e e C o u n t y 39,313 37,962 90.34% * ( W i s c o n s i n ) R e d f o r d T o w n s h i p 27,183 26,004 89.4% ( D e t r o i t ) C h i c a g o 1,222,000 554,000 53.66% L o v e l a c e c i t e s N o r t h V a n c o u v e r as b e i n g an e x t r e m e example o f e x c e s s l a n d s u b d i v i s i o n d u r i n g a p e r i o d o f r a p i d s p e c u - 3 8 l a t i v e a c t i v i t y . T h e r e a r e numerous o t h e r e x a m p l e s , one o f t h e more s p e c t a c u l a r b e i n g t h e rampant s p e c u l a t i o n and s u b d i v i s i o n o f t h e S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a d u r i n g t h e e a r l y 1 9 0 0 ' s . 3 9 N o t o n l y does e x c e s s i v e s u b d i v i s i o n p r e m a t u r e l y remove l a n d s f r o m more l o g i c a l o r p r o d u c t i v e u s e s -- s u c h as f a r m i n g -- i t may a l s o h i n d e r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f an a r e a when t h e t i m e i s a p p r o p r i a t e , due t o the c o m p l i c a t i o n o f r e a l e s t a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s a r i s i n g f r o m d i v e r s e p a t t e r n s o f 40 l a n d o w n e r s h i p . U n d e r s t a n d a b l y , s o c i a l and e c o n o m i c c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e x c e s s i v e , u n c o n t r o l l e d s u b d i v i s i o n o f l a n d a r e c o n s i - d e r a b l e . W herever t h e p r e s e n t and f u t u r e w e l f a r e o f t h e community as a w h o l e as been s a c r i f i c e d f o r i m m e d i a t e i n d i v i d u a l g a i n , t h e r e s u l t s a r e "... t h e f a m i l i a r b l i g h t e d d i s t r i c t s , t h e w a s t e f u l i m p r o v e m e n t - s c a r r e d a r e a s , and t h e h i g h c o s t s t o t h e c o m m u n i t y " . ^ S p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y t h a t r e s u l t s i n t h e w i t h h o l d i n g o f u r b a n f r i n g e l a n d f r o m d e v e l o p m e n t , a r t i f i c i a l l y a f f e c t s t h e tempo and s e q u e n c e o f m u n i c i p a l d e v e l o p m e n t and i n so d o i n g has a d i r e c t , a d v e r s e e f f e c t on t h e community as a w h o l e . The marked u r b a n d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f r e c e n t y e a r s i s s ometimes a t t r i b u t e d t o l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n . R e g a r d l e s s o f w h e t h e r o r n o t t h a t s t a t e m e n t i s j u s t i f i a b l e , i f l a n d w i t h i n t h e b o r d e r s o f an u r b a n i z i n g a r e a "... i s h e l d v a - c a n t o r i n l e s s - d e v e l o p e d use t h a n c u r r e n t c o n d i t i o n s a l o n e m i g h t j u s t i f y , t h e n t h e b o u n d a r y o f t h e u r b a n a r e a w i l l t e n d t o be f u r t h e r f r o m . t h e CBD t h a n w o u l d o t h e r w i s e be t h e case -. The r e s u l t i n g s p r a w l , w h e t h e r f o s t e r e d by s p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y o r n o t , n e g a t e s and f r u s t r a t e s t h e v e r y p u r p o s e s o f u r b a n a g g l o m e r a t i o n -- s p e c i a l i z a t i o n , i n t e r a c t i o n , and c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f p e o p l e . I n a g r o w i n g community, t h e f o l l o w i n g i t e m s a r e most a f f e c t e d : 1 . The a c t u a l c o s t s o f m u n i c i p a l f a c i l i t i e s and s e r v i c e s -- i n c l u d i n g the e f f i c i e n t p r o v i s i o n o f p o l i c e and f i r e p r o t e c t i o n , s c h o o l s , bus l i n e s , s t r e e t s and t r a n s - p o r t a t i o n c o r r i d o r s , u t i l i t i e s , e t c . The c o s t o f i n i t i a l l y p r o v i d i n g t h e s e s e r v i c e s , as w e l l as t h e c o s t o f m a i n t e - nance and o p e r a t i o n , i s c l o s e l y l i n k e d t o t h e a c t u a l 28. s e q u e n c e i n w h i c h d i f f e r e n t a r e a s o f a l a r g e community a r e d e v e l o p e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e f a c i l i t i e s s u c h as p i p e s and s t r e e t s w i l l have t o be e x t e n d e d i n e f f i c i e n t l y o v e r l o n g d i s t a n c e s t o s e r v e s c a t t e r e d u s e r s o r w i l l be e x t e n d e d g r a d u a l l y t o s e r v e a r e a s b u i l t i n c a r e f u l p h a s e w i t h e f f i - c i e n t f a c i l i t y g r o w t h " . ^ 2. The r e t e n t i o n o f m u n i c i p a l c o n t r o l o v e r t h e e v e n - t u a l c h a r a c t e r o f d e v e l o p m e n t . C o n s i d e r , as an e x a m p l e , a c a s e where t h e m u n i c i p a l m a s t e r p l a n r e q u i r e s f u t u r e i n t e n - s i v e d e v e l o p m e n t s e r v e d by p u b l i c s e wer and w a t e r l i n e s i n a p a r t i c u l a r a r e a w h i c h p r e s e n t l y happens t o be r e m o t e f r o m an u t i l i t y l i n e s . I f c o n t r o l o v e r t h e a c t u a l t i m i n g o f d e v e l o p m e n t i s a f f e c t e d by s p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y , t h e a r e a i n q u e s t i o n c o u l d be t h e p r e m a t u r e s u b j e c t o f a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f s u b d i v i s i o n and l o w - i n t e n s i t y d e v e l o p m e n t s e r v e d by i n d i v i d u a l w e l l s , w a t e r s o u r c e s and s e p a r a t e sewage d i s p o s a l u n i t s . The e x i s t e n c e o f t h i s t y p e o f d e v e l o p m e n t may make i t v e r y d i f f i c u l t a t a l a t e r s t a g e t o c o n v e r t t h e a r e a t o t h e more i n t e n s i v e c h a r a c t e r r e q u i r e d by t h e e v o l - v i n g m u n i c i p a l p a t t e r n , even t h o u g h i m p o r t a n t community- w i d e r e a s o n s may e x i s t f o r d o i n g s o . I n s i m i l a r f a s h i o n , as F a g i n n o t e s , "... an i m p o r t a n t f u t u r e i n d u s t r i a l d i s - t r i c t may become so c u t up by s c a t t e r e d s m a l l - s c a l e f a c - t o r i e s as t o p r e c l u d e i t s e v e n t u a l d e v e l o p m e n t as a p l a n n e d , c o - o r d i n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l d i s t r i c t when t h e t i m e i s r i p e " . ^ 3. The m a i n t e n a n c e o f a d e s i r a b l e d e g r e e o f b a l a n c e among v a r i o u s u s e s o f l a n d . F o r i n s t a n c e , i t i s o f t e n e s s e n t i a l t o t h e e c o n o m i c s t a b i l i t y o f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s -- e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e w h i c h c o n t a i n l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f low- v a l u e homes -- t h a t t h e s e r v i c e c o s t s be o f f s e t b y t a x i n - come f r o m c o m m e r c i a l and i n d u s t r i a l s o u r c e s . I n s u c h c a s e s i t i s c r i t i c a l t h a t new r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n be t i m e d i n p r o p e r r e l a t i o n w i t h c o m m e r c i a l and i n d u s t r i a l e x p a n - s i o n . A n o t h e r t y p e o f b a l a n c e among l a n d - u s e s i n v o l v e s t h e somewhat s u b t l e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f a r e a s o f v a r i e d c h a r a c t e r . F o r e x a m p l e : The v i l l a g e o f H a s t i n g s - o n - H u d s o n i n New Y o r k has a p o l i c y e x e r c i s e d t h r o u g h t h e z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e w h i c h r e g u l a t e s t h e t i m i n g o f a p a r t m e n t c o n s t r u c t i o n i n r e l a - t i o n t o t h e r a t e o f o n e - f a m i l y home b u i l - d i n g i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h a 15 t o 85 r a t i o . T h u s , f o r i n s t a n c e , w henever 85 new one- f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s have been b u i l t , t h e v i l l a g e may i s s u e p e r m i t s e n a b l i n g 15 d w e l l i n g - u n i t s i n a p a r t m e n t b u i l d i n g s . T h i s r e g u l a t i o n i s i n t e n d e d t o m a i n t a i n what i s l o c a l l y f e l t t o be a d e s i r a b l e p r e - d o minance o f o n e - f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s i n a commuter v i l l a g e , b u t a t the same t i m e t o make p o s s i b l e a n e c e s s a r y t h o u g h s m a l l e r s u p p l y o f r e n t a l a p a r t m e n t s . The d e v i c e makes t h e t i m i n g o f one e l e m e n t c o n d i t i o n a l one t h e t i m i n g o f a n o t h e r r e l a t e d e l e m e n t . A 4. The m a i n t e n a n c e o f a h i g h q u a l i t y o f community s e r v i c e s and f a c i l i t i e s . D u r i n g p e r i o d s o f r a p i d l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t a d e q u a t e t i m e i n t e r v a l s a r e r e q u i r e d f o r the a s s i m i l a t i o n o f r e s i d e n t i a l , c o m m e r c i a l o r i n d u s t r i a l 30 a d d i t i o n s t o t h e community. When l a n d i s s u b d i v i d e d a t a f a s t e r r a t e t h a n m u n i c i p a l f a c i l i t i e s and s e r v i c e s can be a d d e d , ",.. t h e r e s u l t i n g o v e r l o a d s on e x i s t i n g c a p a c i t i e s c a u s e a d e c l i n e i n t h e q u a l i t y o f s e r v i c e s . Uncon- t r o l l e d , t h i s d e t e r i o r a t i o n can r e s u l t i n s e r i o u s l y s u b - s t a n d a r d l e v e l s o f w a t e r s u p p l y , sewage and w a s t e d i s p o - S 3- X • » • « T h i s s e c t i o n has d e t a i l e d some o f t h e t y p i c a l e f - f e c t s o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n on t h e community. Y e a r w o o d c o n c l u d e s t h a t , S p e c u l a t i o n l e a d s t o w a s t e o f a v a l u a b l e r e s o u r c e . T h e r e i s w a s t e i n t a k i n g l a n d o u t o f a p r o d u c t i v e use b e f o r e i t i s r e a d y f o r a n o t h e r ; w a s t e i s t y i n g up c a p i t a l f o r l o n g p e r i o d s i n an u n p r o d u c t i v e e n t e r p r i s e , w i t h more i n t a x e s , i n t e r e s t , and s p e c i a l a s s e s s - m e n t s ; w a s t e i n t h e d i v i s i o n o f l a n d i n t o l o t s t h a t a r e t o o s m a l l , o r o f p o o r d e s i g n , o r p o o r l y l o c a t e d ; w a s t e i n z o n i n g t o o much f o r b u s i n e s s u s e ; and w a s t e i n r e p l a t t i n g l a n d w h i c h has b een p r e m a t u r e l y s u b d i v i d e d . T h e r e a r e o t h e r w a s t e s t o o : i n c r e a s e d u t i l i - t y c o s t s , i n c r e a s e d m a i n t e n a n c e c o s t s , and i n c r e a s e d o v e r a l l g o v e r n m e n t a l c o s t s , a l l o f w h i c h a f f e c t t h e community a d v e r s e l y . A R I t i s w o r t h n o t i n g h e r e t h a t t h e r e i s "... w i d e - s p r e a d o p p o s i t i o n t o any t y p e o f c o n t r o l w h i c h w o u l d hamper t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f t h o s e engaged i n t h e s p e c u l a t i v e e n t e r p r i s e s c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e c o n v e r s i o n o f raw a c r e a g e 49 i n t o u r b a n l o t s " . W i d e s p r e a d o p p o s i t i o n t o c o n t r o l o f s p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y a p p e a r s t o be a common phenomenon and i t s f o r c e i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r much o f t h e d i s o r d e r l y g r o w t h on t h e f r i n g e s o f u r b a n a r e a s . More w i l l be s a i d on t h e s u b j e c t s o f c o n t r o l l i n g n o t o n l y l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n b u t p r i v a t e l a n d u s e , i n a l a t e r c h a p t e r . THE MARKET FOR UNDEVELOPED URBAN FRINGE LAND The demand f o r u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d i s e s s e n t i a l l y a " d e r i v e d demand": t h a t i s , t h e demand f o r t h i s p a r t i c u l a r t y p e o f l a n d d e v e l o p s f r o m and depends upon t h e demand f o r s a t i s f y i n g w h a t , i n t h i s c a s e , happens t o be a b a s i c human r e q u i r e m e n t -- s h e l t e r . A c c o r d i n g t o H a m i l t o n , " ... t h e r e t u r n f r o m o w n e r s h i p o f un- d e v e l o p e d l a n d i s n o t p r i m a r i l y income b u t r a t h e r c a p i t a l a p p r e c i a t i o n . The v a l u e o f u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d depends a l m o s t e n t i r e l y upon t h e f i n a l use and t h e t i m i n g o f d e v e l o p m e n t , any income p r o v i d e d p r i o r t o d e v e l o p m e n t i s u s u a l l y i n s i g n i - f i c a n t i n r e l a t i o n t o t h i s c a p i t a l a p p r e - c i a t i o n . I n t h e i r a r t i c l e , "Land as a Growth I n v e s t m e n t " , R i c k s and Weston have i d e n t i f i e d f i v e s t a g e s i n l i f e c y c l e o f l a n d w i t h i n any g i v e n u r b a n a r e a t h a t u n d e r g o e s d e v e l o p m e n t . ^ These l a n d - u s e s t a g e s a r e (1) a g r i c u l t u r a l , (2) p r e - d e v e l o p m e n t , (3) o r i g i n a l d e v e l o p m e n t , (4) u n d e r d e v e - l o p m e n t , and (5) r e d e v e l o p m e n t . I n the c o n t e x t o f t h i s 32. Figure I LIFE CYCLE OF LAND VALUES UNDEVELOPED t PRE- DEVELOPED DEVELOPED MIS- DEVELOPED STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III REDEVELOPED STAGE IV STAGE V T I M E Source; R.B. Ricks and J.F. Weston, "Land As a Growth Investment", Financial Analysists Journal, Vol. 22, July/August 1966, p. 70. study, however, only the f i r s t three stages are of s i g n i - ficance. These par t i c u l a r stages, which Hamilton has de- noted by the prime determinants of value rather than actual land use, are (1) agr i c u l t u r a l value, (2) potential deve- 52 lopment value, and (3) value at the time of development. The three stages are i l l u s t r a t e d in Figure II . Although this study is primarily concerned with land that f a l l s within Stage Two, i t i s important to examine both Stages One and Three for they serve as the constraints or boun- daries for Stage Two. The value of the undeveloped, ag r i c u l t u r a l land in Stage One, before other uses are considered, i s simply the capitalized value of the income obtainable from agricul- tural uses. During this stage, changes in the price of land are influenced by any changes in productivity and/or price changes for the f i n a l a g r i c u l t u r a l outputs. Assu- ming that farm prices are controlled to a s i g n i f i c a n t de- gree -- through marketing boards, for example -- land va- lues would tend to increase gradually over time as Figure II i l l u s t r a t e s . Land would remain in Stage One of the development cycle as long as the market value -- based on agricultural use -- equalled or exceeded the maximum price payable for some other use. Further to this point, Hamilton notes: 34. Figure II STAGES OF LAND VALUES (Developed) AGRICULTURAL VALUE LATENT VALUE HIGHEST AND BEST USE t STAGE ONE STAGE TWO STAGE THREE T I M E Source; Stanley W. Hamilton, " P r i c e Movements i n Undev- eloped Land Facing U r b a n i z a t i o n : A M i c r o Study", Unpublished PhD. Thesis i n Business Administra- t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a , Berkley, p„ 46. E v e n w i t h p o t e n t i a l u r b a n use i n t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e , t h e p r e s e n t w o r t h o f t h e l a n d f o r d e v e l o p m e n t i s l e s s t h a n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l v a l u e . O b s e r v e t h a t i t i s t h e v a l u e g e n e r a t i n g use r a t h e r t h a n t h e a c t u a l l a n d use w h i c h d i s t i n g u i s h e s S t a g e s One and Two. A p r o p e r t y may r e m a i n i n a g r i c u l t u r a l use w e l l b e y o n d t h e p o i n t a t w h i c h f a r m i n g c e a s e s t o be p r o f i t a b l e . ^ L a n d i n t h e o t h e r e x t r e m e , S t a g e T h r e e , i s c h a r a c - t e r i z e d by a c t u a l d e v e l o p m e n t , and i t s v a l u e i n t h e s h o r t r u n i s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e c a p i t a l i z e d v a l u e o f t h e l a n d ' s c o n t r i b u t i o n t o income p r o d u c t i o n as an u r b a n p r o p e r t y . T h e r e a r e two i t e m s t o a p p r e c i a t e h e r e . I n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , s i n c e d e v e l o p m e n t o f l a n d may o c c u r o v e r some ex- t e n d e d p e r i o d o f t i m e , t h e a c t u a l b o u n d a r y o f S t a g e T h r e e i s s u b j e c t t o i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . F o r most p u r p o s e s , h o w e v e r , i t i s s u f f i c i e n t t o s i m p l y c l a s s i f y p r o p e r t y as b e i n g i n S t a g e T h r e e when i n c o m e - p r o d u c i n g i m p r o v e m e n t s a r e p r o - v i d e d on t h e s i t e . S e c o n d l y , t h e v a l u e o f t h e l a n d i t - s e l f i n S t a g e T h r e e i s d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e , s i n c e t h e t o t a l income s u b j e c t t o c a p i t a l i z a t i o n i n c l u d e s a c e r t a i n amount d e r i v e d f r o m t h e c a p i t a l i m p r o v e m e n t . ^ I n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h i s s t u d y , h o w e v e r , the i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a - t i o n i s t h a t l a n d be p r o p e r l y c l a s s i f i e d as b e t w e e n S t a g e s Two and T h r e e . T h u s , " U n l i k e S t a g e s One and Two where th e b o u n d a r y i s d e t e r m i n e d by v a l u e g e n e r a t i n g c o n s i d e r a - t i o n s , S t a g e s Two and Three a r e d e l i n e a t e d by t h e p r e s e n c e o f o n - s i t e i n c o m e p r o d u c i n g i m p r o v e m e n t s " . 3 0 The i n t e r i m p e r i o d , S t a g e Two , i s i l l u s t r a t i v e o f p r i c e r i s i n g a b o v e t h e c u r r e n t a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e v a l u e , i n e x p e c t a t i o n o f t h e f u t u r e h i g h e r u r b a n - u s e v a l u e . C o n - s e q u e n t l y , t h e a c t u a l v a l u e o f l a n d i n t h i s s t a g e i s h i g h l y u n c e r t a i n , d e p e n d i n g on i t s u s e a t some f u t u r e p e r i o d i n t i m e . ^ The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e m a r k e t i n S t a g e T w o , as w e l l as t h e p r o c e s s o f v a l u e d e t e r m i n a t i o n w i t h i n t h i s m a r k e t , w i l l be e x a m i n e d i n more d e t a i l i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n . F o r t h e t i m e b e i n g , t h e f o l l o w i n g s i m p l y e q u a t i o n s s e r v e t o s u m m a r i z e t h e t h r e e s t a g e s o f l a n d v a l u e s a n d t h e 5 7 c o n d i t i o n s d e f i n i n g t h e b o u n d a r i e s : S t a g e O n e : AMV. . ~ PMV-i t l i t S t a g e Two: S t a g e T h r e e : AMV- >i PMV. > (DMV. - CD) . (DMV^ - CD) > P M V i t w h e r e : A M V ^ t = m a r k e t v a l u e o f u n i t i o f l a n d i n p e r i o d t b a s e d s o l e l y on a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e ; P M V ^ t = m a r k e t v a l u e o f u n i t i o f l a n d i n p e r i o d t b a s e d on p o t e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t ; DMV^ = m a r k e t v a l u e o f the d e v e l o p e d u n i t i o f l a n d i n p e r i o d t , a s s u m i n g d e v e l o p m e n t o c c u r s i n p e r i o d t . CD = c o s t o f d e v e l o p m e n t i n p e r i o d t . LAND S P E C U L A T I O N RECONSIDERED The a f o r e m e n t i o n e d o p i n i o n s on l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n a n d i t s e f f e c t s , a l t h o u g h w i d e s p r e a d , a p p e a r t o be b a s e d o n a t l e a s t t h r e e m i s c o n c e p t i o n s : 1 . t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f a f i x e d s u p p l y o f l a n d a n d a d i s r e g a r d as t o t h e i n f l u e n c e o f demand i n t h e d e t e r m i n a - t i o n o f m a r k e t p r i c e s ; 2. t h e c o n f u s i o n s o f s p e c u l a t o r s w i t h t h o s e l a n d o w n e r s who may h a v e some d e g r e e o f m o n o p o l y c o n t r o l o v e r p o r t i o n s o f t h e s u p p l y ; a n d , 3. t h e b e l i e f t h a t s p e c u l a t i o n , o f a n d b y i t s e l f , i s t h e c a u s e o f e x c e s s i v e i n f e r i o r s u b d i v i s i o n a n d t h e r e s u l - t i n g u r b a n s p r a w l . The r e s u l t o f t h e f i r s t m i s c o n c e p t i o n i s an u n d e r - e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e d e g r e e o f c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e u r b a n l a n d m a r k e t . L a n d i s n o t as u n i q u e a " c o m - m o d i t y " as many w o u l d b e l i e v e . I t i s t r u e t h a t a s i d e f r o m r e l a t i v e l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t amounts r e c l a i m e d f r o m a q u a t i c a r e a s o r " c r e a t e d " t h r o u g h the u s e o f a i r r i g h t s f o r b u i l d i n g p u r p o s e s , t h e s u p p l y o f l a n d i s f i x e d i n p h y s i c a l 38 t e r m s . However, t h e e c o n o m i c s u p p l y i s c o n s i d e r a b l y l e s s i n e l a s t i c . I f t h e s u p p l y o f l a n d was p e r f e c t l y i n e l a s t i c , t h e s o l e r e s p o n s e t o an i n c r e a s e i n demand w o u l d be an i n - c r e a s e i n p r i c e . S u c h i s o b v i o u s l y n o t t h e c a s e , p a r t i - c u l a r l y w i t h l a n d on t h e u r b a n f r i n g e , as MacKay o b s e r v e s : ... an i n c r e a s e i n t h e demand f o r u r b a n l a n d n o t o n l y r e s u l t s i n p r i c e i n c r e a s e s b u t a l s o i n an e x p a n s i o n i n t h e a r e a o f l a n d u s e d f o r u r b a n p u r p o s e s as w e l l ' as an i n c r e a s e i n t h e i n t e n s i t y w i t h w h i c h e x i s - t i n g u r b a n l a n d i s u s e d . The d i f f e r e n c e i n e l a s t i c i t y b e t w een t h e p h y s i c a l and t h e e c o n o m i c s u p p l y o f l a n d i s d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h changes i n demand a r e met by changes i n a r e a and i n t e n s i t y o f u s e . The e c o n o m i c s u p p l y o f l a n d i s s t i l l more i n e l a s t i c t o changes i n p r i c e t h a n t h e s u p p l y o f many o t h e r p r o d u c t s , b u t i t i s n o t n e a r l y so i n e l a s t i c as t h e p h y s i c a l s u p p l y . 5 g I t h as e v e n b e e n c o n c l u d e d t h a t "... f o r any i n d i v i d u a l e n t r e p r e n e u r , t h e s u p p l y o f l a n d - I s o n l y l i m i t e d by t h e 59 p r i c e he i s w i l l i n g and a b l e t o p a y " . The i m p o r t a n t p o i n t i s t h a t t h e a c t u a l d e g r e e o f e l a s t i c i t y , c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e w i d e s p r e a d o w n e r s h i p o f l a n d , p r o d u c e s c o n d i t i o n s o f s u p p l y t h a t a r e c o n s i d e r a b l y more c o m p e t i t i v e t h a n many w o u l d s u g g e s t . E q u a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t i s the i n a d e q u a t e a t t e n t i o n t o the i n f l u e n c e o f demand on the p r i c e o f l a n d . R e f f e r i n g b a c k t o t h e t h r e e s t a g e s o f l a n d v a l u e s , l a n d i n S t a g e 39. Two i s e s s e n t i a l l y s u b j e c t t o t h r e e s e t s o f b u y e r s . The f i r s t s e t -- t h o s e b u y i n g f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l use -- e s t a b - l i s h t h e minimum p r i c e . The s e c o n d s e t i n c l u d e s d e v e l o - p e r s who p u r c h a s e u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d o n l y i f t h e y have s'trong e x p e c t a t i o n s o f b e i n g a b l e t o d e v e l o p t h e p r o p e r t y and l a t e r r e s e l l a t a p r o f i t . However, as H a m i l t o n s t a t e s : Due t o t h e n a t u r e o f t h e m a r k e t , t h e d e v e l o p e r a c t s as a p r i c e - t a k e r f o r b o t h t h e l a n d and t h e d e v e l o p e d p r o p e r t y . As s u c h , t h e d e v e l o p e r c a n n o t i n f l u e n c e e i t h e r t h e p r i c e o f l a n d o r t h e p r i c e o f t h e com- p l e t e d p r o p e r t y . The p r i c e o f l a n d i s s e t i n an i m p e r f e c t b u t q u a s i - c o m p e t i t i v e mar- k e t . The p r i c e o f d e v e l o p e d p r o p e r t y i s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e p r i c e o f t h e s t a n d i n g s t o c k o f d e v e l o p e d p r o p e r t y . ^ T h i s i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e s e c o n d p o p u l a r m i s - c o n c e p t i o n -- t h a t o f s p e c u l a t o r s e x e r c i s i n g m o n o p o l i s t p o w e r s . The o w n e r s h i p o f l a n d , b o t h r u r a l and u r b a n , i s w i d e l y d i s p e r s e d i n N o r t h A m e r i c a . I f i t were n o t s o , and l a n d o w n e r s h i p were c o n c e n t r a t e d among r e l a t i v e l y few p e r s o n s as i s t h e c a s e i n some S o u t h A m e r i c a n c o u n t r i e s , t h e r e s u l t w o u l d be a d e f i n i t e m o n o p o l i s t i c m a r k e t and g e n e r a l l y i n e f f i c i e n t l a n d a l l o c a t i o n . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t the l o c a t i o n o f l a n d i s f i x e d , as w e l l as t h e f a c t t h a t no one u n i t o f s p a c e i s i d e n t i c a l w i t h any o t h e r i n terms o f p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , t h e owner o f a p a r t i c u l a r s i t e can e x e r c i s e c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s c r e t i o n as t o h i s s e l l i n g p r i c e . The p r i c e o f a u n i t o f l a n d may r e f l e c t m o n o p o l i s - t i c c o n d i t i o n s o n l y i n r e l a t i v e l y few i n s t a n c e s , and f o r t h i s t o o c c u r e i t h e r o f two c o n d i t i o n s must e x i s t : (a) t h e r e i s no a l t e r n a t i v e s i t e f o r a p a r t i c u l a r u s e ; (b) t h e r e i s no a l t e r n a t i v e use f o r t h e s i t e . I n t h e f i r s t i n s t a n c e , t h e l a n d o w n e r i s a m o n o p o l i s t who c a n s e t a p r i c e on h i s l a n d w h i c h i s n o t i n f l u e n c e d by t h e p r i c i n g p o l i c i e s o f o t h e r l a n d o w n e r s . I n th e s e c o n d , t h e p o t e n t i a l u s e r i s a mono- p s o n i s t who c a n o f f e r a p r i c e w h i c h i s n o t i n f l u e n c e d b y t h e p r i c i n g p o l i c i e s o f o t h e r p o t e n t i a l u s e r s . I f b o t h c o n d i t i o n s h o l d , t h e r e i s a b i l a t e r a l monopoly and th e p r i c e w i l l be s e t t l e d by b a r g a i n i n g . The p r i c e o f l a n d i s a p t t o be t o o h i g h i n t h e f i r s t c a s e , t o o l o w i n t h e s e c o n d , and i s i n d e t e r m i n a t e i n t h e t h i r d . c 0 I n t h e v a s t m a j o r i t y o f c a s e s , powers o f monopoly c o n t r o l do n o t e x i s t t o a s i g n i f i c a n t d e g r e e i n t h e l a n d m a r k e t . T h e r e a r e two p o i n t s t o c o n s i d e r h e r e . I n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , a l t h o u g h l a n d i s bound by i t s p h y s i c a l l o c a t i o n , "... i n t h e e c o n o m i c s e n s e l a n d i s m o b i l e t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t i t c a n move f r o m one use t o a n o t h e r d e p e n d i n g upon th e p r i c e t h a t e a c h u se i s w i l l i n g t o pay f o r i t . T h u s , i t c a n move f r o m where i t i s p l e n t i f u l t o where i t i s (5 3 s c a r c e , i n e c o n o m i c t e r m s " . The s e c o n d p o i n t c o n c e r n s t h e d e g r e e o f l a n d s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y -- n o t o f the r e s o u r c e i t s e l f , b u t o f v a r i o u s u n i t s o r s i t e s o f l a n d . I t i s g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d t h a t no i n d i v i d u a l owns so much l a n d t h a t t h e r e a r e n o t a l t e r n a t i v e s i t e s , owned by o t h e r s , a v a i l a b l e f o r d e v e l o p m e n t , and w h i c h r e p r e s e n t r e a s o n a b l e s u b s t i t u t e s . The t h i r d s e t o f p u r c h a s e r s o p e r a t i n g i n S t a g e Two a r e t h e i n v e s t o r s o r l a n d s p e c u l a t o r s , whose o b j e c t i s t o w i t h h o l d l a n d f r o m d e v e l o p m e n t w h i l e a w a i t i n g a n t i c i p a t e d p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . The u s u a l method i s t o p u r c h a s e l a n d i n f r i n g e a r e a s , a t p r i c e s t h a t r e f l e c t t h e e x i s t i n g v a l u e i n some a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e , and h o l d t h e l a n d u n t i l i t c a n be s o l d f o r a h i g h e r p r i c e -- i n l i n e w i t h t h e p o t e n t i a l v a l u e t h a t c o u l d be o b t a i n e d i n t h e l a n d ' s most r e m u n e r a - t i v e u r b a n u s e . C o n t r a r y t o p o p u l a r b e l i e f , t h e s p e c u l a - t o r makes no p e r s o n a l e f f o r t t o i n c r e a s e t h e v a l u e o f h i s l a n d ; h e r m e r e l y k e e p s i t o f f t h e m a r k e t u n t i l s u c h t i m e as he f e e l s he c a n r e c e i v e a p r o f i t . ^ The end r e s u l t i s t h a t t h e p r i c e o f a u n i t o f u r b a n f r i n g e l a n d i n t h e s h o r t - t e r m may r e f l e c t i t s i n f l a t e d v a l u e , t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t i t i n c l u d e s t h e s p e c u l a t o r ' s p r o f i t as w e l l as t h e a c q u i s i t i o n c o s t s . T h u s , i n t h e e a r l y y e a r s o f u r b a n i - z a t i o n a t l e a s t t h e e f f e c t s o f s p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y a r e r e f l e c t e d i n h i g h e r l a n d p r i c e s t h a n w o u l d n o r m a l l y be j u s t i f i e d i n S t a g e One. Due t o t h e r e l a t i v e l y i n e l a s t i c s u p p l y o f t h i s t y p e o f l a n d , t h e i m m e d i a t e r e a c t i o n t o an i n c r e a s e i n demand w o u l d be an i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e , r a t h e r t h a n an i n c r e a s e i n q u a n t i t y s u p p l i e d as w e l l as an i n - c r e a s e i n p r i c e . T h i s i n i t i a l r e a c t i o n w o u l d n o t p e r s i s t 4 2 . b e c a u s e , e v e n w i t h i n t h e s h o r t - r u n p e r i o d , the i n c r e a s e i n demand w o u l d s o o n cause an e x p a n s i o n i n the a r e a o f f r i n g e l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t . The t h i r d a p p a r e n t m i s c o n c e p t i o n c o n c e r n i n g l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n -- the b e l i e f t h a t s p e c u l a t i o n l e a d s t o e x c e s - s i v e , i n f e r i o r s u b d i v i s i o n and u r b a n s p r a w l -- i s b a s e d on a f a l s e a s s u m p t i o n . A l t h o u g h e x a m p l e s o f u r b a n s p r a w l a r e o f t e n l i n k e d t o t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f s p e c u l a t o r s , t h i s does n o t i n d i c a t e t h a t s p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y i t s e l f i s b a d . R a t h e r , p o o r s u b d i v i s i o n c o n d i t i o n s i m p l y i n a d e q u a t e p u b l i c c o n t r o l s on l a n d u s e . The w h o l e s u b j e c t o f p r i v a t e l a n d o w n e r s h i p and p u b l i c c o n t r o l s i s k e y i n any d i s c u s - s i o n on s p e c u l a t i o n , and w i l l be e x a m i n e d c l o s e l y i n t h e n e x t c h a p t e r . 43. REFERENCES 1. Angus N. MacKay, " L a n d S p e c u l a t i o n - A Comment", P l a n , V o l . 6, No. 2, December 1 9 6 5 , p. 83. 2. R a l e i g h B a r l o w e , L a n d R e s o u r c e E c o n o m i c s , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , I n c . , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N . J . , 1958, p. 227. 3. l o c . c i t . 4. P a u l A. S a m u e l s o n and A n t h o n y S c o t t , E c o n o m i c s , McGraw- H i l l Co. o f Canada, T o r o n t o , 1966, p. 461. " A r b i t r a g e r " i s t h e t e r m commonly a p p l i e d t o t h o s e who s p e c u l a t e i n f i n a n c i a l m a r k e t s . 5. C E . E l i a s , J r . , and James G i l l i e s , "Some O b s e r v a t i o n s on t h e R o l e o f S p e c u l a t o r s and S p e c u l a t i o n i n L a n d D e v e l o p m e n t " , U.C.L.A. Law R e v i e w , V o l . 12, No. 3, M a r c h 1 9 6 5 , p. 789. 6. An a n c i e n t j o k e u s e d by commodity s p e c i a l i s t s i l l u s - t r a t e s t h i s p o i n t : A s p e c u l a t o r i n s o y b e a n s m i s c a l - c u l a t e d and was u n a b l e t o d i s p o s e o f h i s l o t o f s o y - b e a n s . T h i n k i n g t o s a l v a g e s o m e t h i n g f r o m t h e w r e c k a g e o f h i s h o p e s , t h e h u n g r y s p e c u l a t o r opened a can o f s o y b e a n s f o r d i n n e r . T h e r e was n o t h i n g i n t h e c a n . A w i s e and o l d e r s p e c u l a t o r i n s o y b e a n s commented: "You s e e , t h e r e a r e s o y b e a n s f o r e a t i n g and s o y b e a n s f o r t r a d i n g " . ( E l i a s and G i l l i e s , p. 790) 7. S a m u e l s o n and S c o t t , op. c i t . , p. 454. 8. MacKay, op. c i t . , p. 83. 9. E l i a s and G i l l i e s , op. c i t . , p. 789. 10. MacKay, op. c i t . , p. 83. 11. c i t e d by R o b e r t C. Weaver, " N a t i o n a l L a n d P o l i c i e s - H i s t o r i c and P r e s e n t " , U.C.L.A. Law R e v i e w , V o l . 12, No. 3, M a r c h , 1965 , p. 7TW. 12. J o h n D e l a f o n s , Land-Use C o n t r o l s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , The M.I.T. P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e , Mass., 1969, p. 4. 13. R i c h a r d M. Y e a r w o o d , "Land S p e c u l a t i o n and Development - A m e r i c a n A t t i t u d e s " , P l a n , V o l . 9, No. 1, March 1968, p. 16. 44. 14, D e l a f o r i s , op. c i t 15. i b i d , p. 3. 16. Y e a r w o o d , op. c i t 17. D e l a f o n s , c i t 1&. J o n Ruddy, "You Too Can Be a L a n d S p e c u l a t o r " , M a c l e a n s , V o l . I 8 N 0 . I , J a n u a r y 1968 , p p s . 22-24, 40-41. 19. i b i d , p. 23. 20. Y e a r w o o d , p. 22. 21. R.W.G. B r y a n t , " R e p l y t o Mr. MacKay", P l a n , V o l . 6, No. 2, December 1965, p. 93. 22. i b i d , p. 94. 23. D e l a f o n s , op. c i t . , p. 12. 24. Y e a r w o o d , op. c i t . , p. 17. 25. "The. S c a r c e s t Commodity", The E c o n o m i s t , V o l . 195, No. 6096 , J u n e 25 , 1960 , p p s . 315-16. 26. F r a n k F o g a r t y , " L a n d : A New K i n g o f Boom", A r c h i t e c - t u r a l Forum, F e b r u a r y , 1 9 5 7, p. 101. 27. W i l l i a m L e a n , E c o n o m i c s o f Land-Use P l a n n i n g : U r b a n and R e g i o n a l , The E s t a t e s G a z e t t e , L o n d o n ^ 1969, 28. l o c . c i t . 29. A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , c i t e d b y Y e a r w o o d , op. c i t . , p. 15. 30. W i l l i a m H. Whyte, "Urban S p r a w l " , F o r t u n e , J a n u a r y 19 58, p. 102. 31. l o c . c i t . 32. l o c . c i t . 33. Y e a r w o o d , op. c i t . , p. 22. 34. H e n r y F a g i n , " R e g u l a t i n g t he T i m i n g o f Urban D e v e l o p - ment" , Law_jmd_(2^ V o l . 20, No. 2, S p r i n g , 1965, p. 298. 45. 35. R o b e r t E. M e r r i a m , The S u b d i v i s i o n o f L a n d , A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , C h i c a g o , 19 5 2 , p. 1. 36. l o c . c i t . 37. l o c . c i t ; 38. E l r i d g e L o v e l a c e , " N o r t h V a n c o u v e r - B e i n g an Example o f E x c e s s L a n d S u b d i v i s i o n " , L a n d s c a p e A r c h i t e c t u r e , V o l 40, No. 1 , 1 9 4 8 , p p s . 69-7T. 39. F o r a d i s c u s s i o n see H a r r y G r e g s o n , A H i s t o r y o f V i c t o r i a 1842-1970, The V i c t o r i a O b s e r v e r P u b l i s h i n g Co., V i c t o r i a , 1970 , C h a p t e r 16, "The G r e a t Land Boom",, p p s . 189-209. 40. K e v i n J . C r o s s , R e s i d e n t i a l L a n d S u b d i v i s i o n : A P h y s i c a l E v a l u a t i o n , Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B.C., S t a f f R e s e a r c h P r o j e c t 2, 1 9 6 5 , p p s . 13-14. 41. M e r r i a m , op. c i t . , p. 2. 42. R i c h a r d F. M u t h , "Urban R e s i d e n t i a l L a n d and H o u s i n g M a r k e t s " , I s s u e s i n U r b a n E c o n o m i c s , H a r v e y S. P e r l o f f a n d ; Lowden Wingo, J r . , e d s . p. 315. 43. A d a p t e d f r o m F a g i n , op. c i t . , p p s . 300-302. 44. i b i d , . p . 300. 45. l o c . c i t . 46. i b i d , p. 301. 47. i b i d , p. 302. 48. Y e a r w o o d , op. c i t . , p. 19. 49. C o r n i c k , P r e m a t u r e S u b d i v i s i o n , c i t e d by Y e a r w o o d , op. c i t . , pT TZ~. 50. S t a n l e y W. H a m i l t o n , " P r i c e Movements i n U n d e v e l o p e d L a n d F a c i n g U r b a n i z a t i o n : A M i c r o S t u d y " , u n p u b l i s h e d Ph.D. T h e s i s i n B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k l e y , 1970. 51. R. B r u c e R i c k s , and J . F r e d W a t s o n , "Land as Growth I n v e s t m e n t " , F i n a n c i a l A n a l y s t s J o u r n a l , V o l . No. J u l y / A u g u s t 1966, pp. 69-78. 46. 52. H a m i l t o n , op. c i t . , p p s . 44-45. The e n s u i n g d i s c u s s i o n draws e x t e n s i v e l y on t h i s s o u r c e . 53. i b i d , p. 47. 54. I n t h e l o n g - r u n , t h e v a l u e o f l a n d i n S t a g e T h r e e may, o f c o u r s e , be c o n s i d e r e d h i g h e r , as t h e r e i s t i m e f o r t h e p r o p e r t y t o become r e d e v e l o p e d a t a h i g h e r u s e . 55. H a m i l t o n , op. c i t . , p. 47. 56. R i c k s and W e s t o n , op. c i t . , p. 57. f r o m H a m i l t o n , op. c i t . , p. 48. 58. MacKay, op. c i t . , p. 88-89 . 59. H . J . D a v e n p o r t , The E c o n o m i c s o f E n t e r p r i s e , The M a c M i l l a n Co., New Y o r k , 1913, p. 169; c i t e d by R a t c l i f f , U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s , M c G r a w - H i l l , New Y o r k , 1 9 4 9 , p. 282. 60. H a m i l t o n , p. 50-52. 61. i b i d . , p. 51. 62. MacKay. op. c i t . , p. 89. 63. R i c h a r d U. R a t c l i f f , U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s , M c G r a w - H i l l , New Y o r k , 1 9 4 9 , p. 283. 74. MacKay, op. c i t . , p. 84. CHAPTER I I I LAND USE CONTROL 48. INTRODUCTION The e n t i r e s u b j e c t o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n and t h e de- t e r m i n a t i o n - o f l a n d v a l u e s must u l t i m a t e l y be c o n s i d e r e d on a macro s c a l e and f r o m an o b j e c t i v e s t a n c e . I n e s - s e n c e , i t i s a q u e s t i o n o f l a n d - u s e c o n t r o l . F o r as B r y a n t s t a t e s , i f i t be a c c e p t e d "... t h a t t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e n o r m a l m a r k e t p r o c e s s e s i s t h e p r o p e r d e t e r m i n a n t o f t h e p r o p e r use o f l a n d , and t h a t i n d i v i d u a l p r o p r i e t o r s h a v e u n r e s t r i c t e d r i g h t t o d e v e l o p t h e i r l a n d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e i r p e r s o n a l c a l c u l a t i o n o f p r o f i t , t h e n any a t - tempt t o c u r b s p e c u l a t i o n , and c o n t r o l p r i c e s o f l a n d b e - comes n e x t t o i m p o s s i b l e . " ^ T h i s c h a p t e r e x a m i n e s t h e c o n - c e p t o f l a n d - u s e c o n t r o l u n d e r t h e f o l l o w i n g h e a d i n g s : 1. The p u b l i c i n t e r e s t i n l a n d r e s o u r c e s ; 2. N o r t h A m e r i c a n s y s t e m o f l a n d t e n u r e ; 3. The c a s e f o r p u b l i c i n t e r v e n t i o n ; 4. Methods o f c o n t r o l l i n g l a n d - u s e . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h i s l a s t c a t e g o r y , t h e o p t i o n s a v a i - l a b l e f o r l a n d - u s e c o n t r o l r a n g e f r o m a s y s t e m o f " l a i s s e z - f a i r e " a t one e x t r e m e , t o t h e p u b l i c o w n e r s h i p o f l a n d a t the o t h e r e x t r e m e . Between t h e s e two s y s t e m s l i e s a r a n g e o f c o n t r o l s a l l o w i n g f o r v a r i o u s d e g r e e s o f p u b l i c i n t e r - v e n t i o n , a n d d e s i g n e d t o i m p r o v e , n o t r e p l a c e , t h e p r i - v a t e s e c t o r . The f o l l o w i n g i t e m s w i l l be e x a m i n e d i n t h i s 4 9 c o n n e c t i o n ; l e g a l c o n t r o l s ( z o n i n g and s u b d i v i s i o n c o n - t r o l ) , f i s c a l m easures ( t a x a t i o n ) , and the p u b l i c owner- s h i p o f l a n d , i n c l u d i n g t h e c o n c e p t o f " l a n d b a n k i n g " . THE PUBLIC INTEREST IN LAND RESOURCES I t i s t h e c l e a r d u t y o f Government, w h i c h i s t h e t r u s t e e f o r u n b o r n gene- r a t i o n s as w e l l as f o r i t s p r e s e n t c i t i z e n s , t o w a t c h o v e r , and i f n e e d b e , b y l e g i s l a t i v e e n a c t m e n t , t o de- f e n d t h e e x h a u s t i b l e n a t u r a l r e - s o u r c e s f r o m r a s h and r e c k l e s s e x p l o i - t a t i o n . - A.C. P i g o u F o r any g i v e n n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e c o n d i t i o n s o f s c a r - c i t y n e c e s s i t a t e s o c i a l c o n t r o l s , i n t h e a t t e m p t t o en- s u r e o p t i m a l d e v e l o p m e n t a n d / o r a l l o c a t i o n . A l l human c o m m u n i t i e s , r e g a r d l e s s o f p o l i t i c a l a f f i l i a t i o n , a s s e r t a p u b l i c i n t e r e s t i n l a n d -- b u t i n v a r y i n g d e g r e e s , on 2 d i f f e r e n t t h e o r e t i c a l g r o u n d s , and by d i f f e r e n t methods. M o r e o v e r , t he governments o f most c o u n t r i e s t o d a y a p p e a r t o be p e r f o r m i n g a c o n s i d e r a b l y more a c t i v e r o l e t h a n was t r a d i t i o n a l l y t h e c a s e -- b o t h as r e g u l a t o r s o f t h e p r i - v a t e u r b a n l a n d m a r k e t p r o c e s s e s , and as d i r e c t p a r t i c i - p a n t s i n t h i s p r o c e s s . The c o n d i t i o n o f s t a t e o w n e r s h i p r e p r e s e n t s t h e method o f c o m p l e t e a s s e r t i o n and c o n t r o l , w h i l e s t a t e r e g u 50. lations governing transfers of land among owners reflects a situation of minimum control. Between these two extremes are "... state claims on revenue from, or value of, land; state requirements for land donation under certain circum- stances; state regulations governing the private use of land (zoning); the right of the state to expropriate; and state regulations governing land registration and land " 3 subdivision." The complete ownership of land vested in the state and the ownership of land entirely by private individuals both result i n serious drawbacks. Inherent i n the former method -- as practices in the U.S.S.R., i s the right of the state to impose any revenue claim, and to not only direct the land to any particular use, but also to declare exactly who sh a l l make use of i t . Obviously, under such circumstances, whatever problems that might accrue from land speculation disappear and annual land rentals flow d i r e c t l y to the public treasury. However, the " ... de- sirable features of outright public ownership are ... accompanied by serious mis-allocation of land and greatly reduced freedom of choice of individuals".^ At the other extreme, complete private ownership of land would imply the to t a l absence of government regulation, taxation, or control of land, and naturally preclude publicly-owned s i t e s . Under such a system, both the efficiency of the land market and the individual's freedom of choice i s 5 1 . d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by t h e a c t u a l d e g r e e o f d i s p e r s a l o f l a n d o w n e r s h i p -- t h a t i s , w h e t h e r i t i s w i d e l y d i s p e r s e d o r c o n c e n t r a t e d i n a few h a n d s . Rawson n o t e s t h a t , "Ab- s o l u t e p r i v a t e o w n e r s h i p o f l a n d c o n c e n t r a t e d i n a few hands means f r e e d o m o f c h o i c e o n l y f o r t h o s e few; i t means a h i g h l y m o n o p o l i s t i c m a r k e t and i n e f f i c i e n t l a n d a l l o c a t i o n .... (and) r e s u l t s i n t h e same s e r i o u s d e f i c i - e n c i e s as c o m p l e t e s t a t e o w n e r s h i p , w i t h t h e added draw- b a c k t h a t a n n u a l l a n d r e n t a l s f l o w i n t o p r i v a t e hands i n - s t e a d o f i n t o t h e p u b l i c t r e a s u r y " . ^ The l a n d s y s t e m s o p e r a t i n g i n N o r t h A m e r i c a l i e be- tween t h e s e two e x t r e m e s -- p r i v a t e l a n d o w n e r s h i p i s d i s - p e r s e d t o a l a r g e d e g r e e , and t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t i n l a n d i s a s s e r t e d i n many ways. An i m p o r t a n t i s s u e i n g i v i n g e x p r e s s i o n t o p u b l i c i n t e r e s t i n t h e c o n t r o l o f l a n d - u s e and t e n u r e a r i s e s f r o m t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r c o n t i n u a l r e v i e w o f t h e g o a l s o f p u b l i c i n t e r e s t . ^ These g o a l s change o v e r t i m e . Conse- q u e n t l y , t h e p u b l i c ' s i n t e r e s t i s i n r e g u l a r n e e d o f r e - i n t e r p r e t a t i o n and r e a p p r a i s a l . I n l i g h t o f t h i s , one o f t h e most i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n s c o n f r o n t i n g t h e government s e c t o r i s how t o a s s e r t t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t i n t h e a r e a o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s more e f f e c t i v e l y t h a n a t p r e s e n t , a n d , a t t h e same t i m e , a v o i d c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e g e n e r a l e r o - s i o n o f f r e e d o m f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l . A l t h o u g h t h i s p r o b l e m 5 2 . i s c o n s i d e r e d i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l l a t e r i n t h e c h a p t e r , i t w o u l d be w o r t h w h i l e i n t h e i n t e r i m t o r e f l e c t on t h e f o l - l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t made by t h e Dean o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s C o l l e g e o f Law: We a r e e x p e r i e n c i n g a r a t h e r r a p i d s h i f t i n t h e b a l a n c e f r o m t he e a r l y p r e - p o n d e r a n c e o f p r i v a t e v o l i t i o n t o an i n c r e a s i n g e m p h a s i s on s o c i a l i n t e r e s t s . I f p r o p e r l y a p p r o a c h e d , t h i s s h i f t c a n s e r v e b o t h t h e i n t e r e s t s o f p r i v a t e p r o - p e r t y and p u b l i c i n t e r e s t s i n c e o n l y where t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t looms l a r g e c a n t h e p r i v a t e i n t e r e s t r e a l l y be m e a n i n g f u l . 8 NORTH AMERICAN SYSTEM OF LAND TENURE The u n d e r l y i n g theme o f t h i s s e c t i o n can be s t a t e d a t t h e o u t s e t . I n f a c t , t h e o p i n i o n s e x p r e s s e d on t h e p r e s e n t s y s t e m o f l a n d t e n u r e a r e a n a l a g o u s t o S a m u e l s o n ' s v i e w s on e c o n o m i c s y s t e m s . He has o b s e r v e d t h a t : U n y i e l d i n g c o n s e r v a t i s m d e f e a t s i t s own p u r p o s e . . . . B r i t t l e e c o n omic s y s t e m s w i t h o u t t h e f l e x i b i l i t y t o accommodate t h e m s e l v e s i n an e v o l u t i o n a r y manner t o a c c u m u l a t i n g t e n s i o n s and s o c i a l changes - however s t r o n g s u c h s y s t e m s may a p p e a r i n t h e s h o r t r u n - a r e t h e g r e a t e s t p e r i l o f e x t i n c t i o n , as s c i e n c e and t e c h n o l o g y a r e c o n s t a n t l y c h a n g i n g t h e n a t u r a l l i n e s o f e c o n o m i c l i f e . I f t h e s y s t e m i s t o con- t i n u e t o f u n c t i o n w e l l , s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s and b e l i e f s must be c a p a b l e o f a d j u s t i n g t h e m s e l v e s t o t h e s e c h a n g e s . And w i t h o u t a s e n s e o f h i s t o r i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e , n e i t h e r r a d i c a l s n o r c o n s e r v a t i v e s n o r m i d d l e - o f - t h e - r o a d e r s c a n e f f e c t i v e l y advance t h e i r own t r u e l o n g - r u n i n t e r e s t s . g 53. The c o n c e p t o f p r i v a t e f r e e h o l d o w n e r s h i p o f l a n d has b e e n t e r m e d "... an i n t e r e s t i n g s o c i a l phenomenon, p e c u l i a r t o c e r t a i n s o c i e t i e s a t c e r t a i n s t a g e s o f t h e i r d e v e l o p m e n t . L i k e a l l o t h e r s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , i t e v o l v e s 10 and changes i n r e s p o n s e t o c h a n g i n g n e e d s " . The l a w o f r e a l p r o p e r t y a t t a i n e d i t s p r e s e n t s t a t u s o f a p p l i c a b i l i t y a s a r e s u l t o f a c o n t i n u a l p r o c e s s o f r e v i s i n g i t s c o n - c e p t s . And i n o r d e r t o b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d t h e p r e s e n t s y s - tem o f l a n d o w n e r s h i p , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o g a i n some h i s - t o r i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e . When W i l l i a m t h e C o n q u e r o r i m p o s e d t h e f e u d a l s y s t e m -- b a s e d on l a n d t e n u r e and p e r s o n a l s e r v i c e s -- power and p r o p e r t y were one and t h e same. The s y s t e m was a p p r o p r i a t e c o n s i d e r i n g t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s i n E n g l a n d a t t h a t t i m e , and l a s t e d u n t i l t h e 1 4 t h o r 1 5 t h C e n t u r i e s . G r a d u a l l y , i t was r e a l i z e d t h a t p u b l i c power and p r i v a t e l a n d o w n e r s h i p c o u l d be s e p a r a t e d , and t h a t i t w o u l d be i n 11 t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t t o do s o . As a r e s u l t , p u b l i c o f - f i c e -- w h i c h r e s p r e s e n t e d power -- was s p l i t f r o m t h e o w n e r s h i p o f t h e f e u d a l manors. A t s u b s e q u e n t p e r i o d s o f E n g l i s h h i s t o r y , t o meet c h a n g i n g e c o n o m i c and s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s , t he c o n c e p t o f o w n e r s h i p was f u r t h e r d i v i d e d . O w n e r s h i p and p o s s e s s i o n were d e v e l o p e d i n t o two d i s t i n c t c o n c e p t s ; t r u s t management o w n e r s h i p ( a l s o known as l e g a l o w n e r s h i p ) and b e n e f i c i a l o w n e r s h i p (known as e q u i t a b l e o w n e r s h i p ) were a l s o s e p a r a t e d . A c o r p o r a t e f o r m o f o w n e r s h i p was d e v e l o p e d i n t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y , w h i c h by a c c o r d i n g owners l i m i t e d l i a b i l i t y , p r o v i d e d a v a l u a b l e mechanism f o r t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s . The p r e s e n t C a n a d i a n s y s t e m o f l a n d o w n e r s h i p -- b a s e d on t h e c o n c e p t o f l a n d as p r o p e r t y , t o be d i s p o s e d o f a t w i l l , and w i t h - o u t a t t a c h e d o b l i g a t i o n s t o s o c i e t y -- i s t h e outcome o f t h e e v o l u t i o n a r y p r o c e s s f o l l o w i n g t h e b r e a k - u p o f E n g l i s h f e u d a l s y s t e m . R e c e n t l y , s e v e r a l w r i t e r s have s t r e s s e d t h e n e e d t o d e v e l o p c o n c e p t s o f u r b a n l a n d o w n e r s h i p more i n k e e p i n g w i t h t h e c h a r a c t e r o f c o m p l e x modern s o c i e t y . D u k e m i n i e r s t a t e s t h a t : Our p r e s e n t c o n c e p t o f o w n e r s h i p o f u r b a n l a n d i n c l u d e s t h e r i g h t o f t h e owner t o d e t e r m i n e t o what u s e s l a n d w i l l be p u t and when, s u b j e c t t o quan- t i t a t i v e l i m i t a t i o n s i m p o s e d by p u b l i c a u t h o r i t i e s . P e r m i t t i n g 'the owner t o d e t e r m i n e use may have b e e n s o u n d p o l i c y i n O l d E n g l a n d , when t h e manor s t a y e d i n t h e f a m i l y f o r g e n e r a t i o n s and t h e company b u i l t h o u s e s f o r ' i t s workmen. I t may e v e n have been s o u n d p o l i c y i n p r e t e c h n o l o g i c a l A m e r i c a . B u t t h i s p o l i c y does n o t t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s i n modern c i v i l i z a t i o n s u c h as i n c r e a s i n g popu- l a t i o n , a u t o m o b i l i t y and u r b a n s p r a w l , the s p e e d o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l change. 1 3 B r y a n t c o n c u r s , o b s e r v i n g t h a t : 55. The o l d s y s t e m o f i n d i v i d u a l f r e e - h o l d s , e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e e a r l y s e t t l e r s , i s s t i l l s o l i d l y e n t r e n c h e d and embedded i n t h e s o c i a l f a b r i c , b u t i t l o o k s l e s s and l e s s a d e q u a t e as d. s a t i s f a c t o r y b a s i s f o r - a modern s o c i e t y . On t h e one h a n d , complex and d i f f i c u l t i s s u e s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e p u b l i c c o n t r o l o f l a n d u s e h a v e an u r g e n c y unknown t o o u r a n c e s t o r s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e o r d i n a r y o p e r a t i o n s o f t h e m a r k e t p r o d u c e anomalous r e s u l t s , e s - p e c i a l l y on t h e f r i n g e s o f c i t i e s where p r e s s u r e f o r d e v e l o p m e n t i s g r e a t , and e a c h p i e c e o f l a n d has s e v e r a l , and o f t e n c o n f l i c t i n g demands f o r i t s u s e . 1 4 As D u k e m i n i e r c o n c l u d e s , t h e p r i n c i p l e o f p e r m i t t i n g t h e u r b a n l a n d o w n e r t o d e t e r m i n e use i n f e r s t h a t u r b a n l a n d - u s e i n a s o c i e t y d e d i c a t e d t o m o b i l i t y i s d e t e r m i n e d by " c o n s i d e r a t i o n s o f t h e moment": The owner f o r t h e t i m e b e i n g s e l d o m v i e w s h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p t o l a n d as a perm a n e n t one. L a n d i s v i e w e d as a tem- p o r a r y h a v e n f o r a b u s i n e s s e n t e r p r i s e ( w h i c h may ne e d t o move t o a n o t h e r l o c a - t i o n a t any moment and i s w r i t i n g o f f i t s c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t a t a r a p i d r a t e ) . New l a n d u s e s , b u t n o t r e h a b i l i t a t i o n o f t h e o l d , c a n be e a s i l y f i n a n c e d ; t h e b a n k e r i s i n t e r e s t e d a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y i n new d e v e l o p m e n t s . The l a n d d e v e l o p e r , a tem- p o r a r y owner, g e t s i n and g e t s o u t q u i c k l y . R e s i d e n t s move and move and move. Even i f t h e y l i v e i n a house many y e a r s , a t t h e i r d e a t h t h e c o n t i n u i t y o f o w n e r s h i p i s l o s t . C h i l d r e n no l o n g e r move i n t o t h e i r p a r e n t s ' h o u s e s . . . "Home", i n t h e s e n s e o f a permanent a t t a c h m e n t t o a p l a c e , h a r d l y e x i s t s i n a m o b i l e s o c i e t y . Y e t we p e r s i s t i n t h i n k i n g o f o w n e r s h i p o f u r b a n l a n d as i f i t were r u r a l l a n d i n an a g r a r i a n s o c i e t y . ^5 THE CASE FOR PUBLIC INTERVENTION I t i s as i d l e t o e x p e c t a w e l l - p l a n n e d town t o r e s u l t f r o m t h e i n d e - p e n d e n t a c t i v i t i e s o f i s o l a t e d s p e c u - l a t o r s as i t w o u l d be t o e x p e c t a s a t i s f a c t o r y p i c t u r e t o r e s u l t i f e a c h s e p a r a t e s q u a r e i n c h o f c a n v a s were p a i n t e d by an i n d i v i d u a l a r t i s t . No " i n v i s i b l e h a n d " c a n be r e l i e d on t o p r o d u c e a good a r r a n g e m e n t o f t h e w h o l e f r o m a c o m b i n a t i o n o f s e p a r a t e t r e a t m e n t o f t h e p a r t s . - A.C. P i g o u I n t h i s s e c t i o n , t h e c a s e f o r p u b l i c i n t e r v e n t i o n i n l a n d r e s o u r c e s w i l l be e x a m i n e d u n d e r t h e two f o l l o w i n g s u b - h e a d i n g s : (a) " m a r k e t b e h a v i o r " , and (b) " i n t e r d e p e n - dency and e x t e r n a l i t i e s " . M arke t B eh av i o r G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , c l a s s i c a l e c o n o m i s t s f a v o r e d e c o n o m i c s y s t e m s b a s e d on consumer p r e f e r e n c e and m a r k e t o p e r a t i o n s . I n h e r e n t i n t h i s b i a s was t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t "... i f e a c h p e r s o n p u r s u e d h i s own s e l f - i n t e r e s t , t h e 'unseen hand* o f t h e m a r k e t w o u l d a u t o m a t i c a l l y d e f i n e and a c h i e v e the p u b l i c i n t e r e s t " . " ^ However, a c o m p l e t e l y ' l a i s s e z - f a i r e ' a p p r o a c h t o e i t h e r t h e p r o d u c t i o n and d i s - t r i b u t i o n o f goods and s e r v i c e s o r the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f income has l o n g been r e g a r d e d as u n s a t i s f a c t o r y . 1 ' 7 As an u r b a n a n a l y s t r e m a r k e d o v e r 40 y e a r s ago, L a i s s e z - f a i r e p o l i c y can p r o p e r l y be c h a r g e d w i t h a l a r g e p a r t o f t h e e n o r - mous t o l l w h i c h c o n g e s t i o n t a k e s d a i l y f r o m b u s i n e s s and i n d u s t r y , t h e d i s p r o - p o r t i o n i n g o f u r b a n a r e a s among r e s i d e n - t i a l , c o m m e r c i a l and m a n u f a c t u r i n g u s e s , t h e i n a d e q u a c y o f p a r k s and p l a y g r o u n d s , t h e l o s s e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m e x c e s s i v e s h i f t i n g o f d i s t r i c t s f r o m p l a c i n g i n - c o m p a t i b l e u s e s n e x t t o one a n o t h e r , t h e u n w i s e s p e c u l a t i o n i n u r b a n s i t e s w h i c h c o s t s t h e f a m i l i e s o f s m a l l means m i l l i o n s o f d o l l a r s a n n u a l l y , and t h e a b s e n c e o f a m e n i t i e s f r o m t h e g r e a t e r p a r t o f t h e r e s i d e n t i a l s e c t i o n o f c i t i e s - a l l f e a - t u r e s o f u r b a n c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e p r e s e n t . - , I n t e r v e n t i o n by t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r i s n o t an u n u s u a l o c c u r - r e n c e f o r p u r p o s e s o f i m p r o v i n g m a r k e t s w h i c h a r e i m p e r - f e c t , e s t a b l i s h i n g l i m i t s on t h e e x e r c i s e o f monopoly p o s i t i o n s , m o d i f y i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f w e a l t h and i n - come and f o r s e v e r a l o t h e r p u r p o s e s . However, s o c i a l i n t e r v e n t i o n s I n t h o s e m a r k e t s w h i c h o r g a n i z e u r b a n l a n d u s e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y more i n t e n s e t h a n i n many o t h e r m a r k e t s , ^ and i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o u n d e r s t a n d t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h i s phenomenon. One b a s i s f o r i n t e r v e n t i o n i n t h i s a r e a i s t h e s e r i o u s i m p e r f e c t i o n s o f u r b a n l a n d m a r k e t s i n some r e s - p e c t s and c i r c u m s t a n c e s . F o r e m o s t among t h e s e i m p e r f e c - t i o n s a r e t h e f o l l o w i n g 58. 1. The s p e c i a l and u n i q u e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e a c h p a r c e l o f r e a l e s t a t e makes i t d i f f i c u l t t o d e s c r i b e , g r a d e and compare. The l a c k o f a s u f f i c i e n t number o f t r a n s - a c t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o p r o p e r t i e s w h i c h a r e e v e n g e n e r a l l y s i m i l a r hampers t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a m a r k e t p r i c e . 2. A c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n on s a l e s p r i c e s and terms i s h a r d t o d i s c o v e r , and t h e r e i s no c e n t r a l s o u r c e o f t i m e l y and c o m p l e t e i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h can s e r v e as a s a t i s f a c t o r y g u i d e t o t r a d e r s . 3 . The l o n g p e r i o d r e q u i r e d f o r p l a n n i n g and b u i l - d i n g new s t r u c t u r e s d e l a y s t h e r e s p o n s e t o p r e s s u r e s o f demand. 4. The l o n g u s e f u l l i f e o f b u i l d i n g s means t h a t s u p - p l y i s n o t r e d u c e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y when demand f a l l s o f f and new c o n s t r u c t i o n s t o p s . 5. L a c k o f e x p e r i e n c e , u n d e r s t a n d i n g , and aw a r e n e s s o f m a r k e t t r e n d s on t h e p a r t o f t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e b u y e r s and s e l l e r s o f r e a l p r o p e r t y d e l a y s a c t i o n i n r e s p o n s e t o ma r k e t t r e n d s . By c o m p a r i s o n w i t h m a r k e t s f o r a l m o s t a l l o t h e r commodi- t i e s , "... t h e u r b a n l a n d m a r k e t i s u n i q u e i n t h e number and power o f the l i m i t a t i o n s on t h e f r e e i n t e r p l a y o f sup- 21 p l y and demand". The s e l f - r e g u l a t i n g r e a c t i o n s o f t h e u r b a n l a n d mar k e t a r e so s l u g g i s h and i m p e r f e c t t h a t , as R a t c l i f f n o t e s "... t h e m a r k e t i s i n a c o n s t a n t s t a t e o f i m b a l a n c e " when a s c a r c i t y o f a p a r t i c u l a r l a n d - u s e a p p e a r s , i t t y p i c a l l y t a k e s a r e l a t i v e l y l o n g p e r i o d o f t i m e t o s u b s t a n - t i a l l y i n c r e a s e t h e s u p p l y -- b u t , once a p r o c e s s o f i n - c r e a s i n g t h e s u p p l y i s i n i t i a t e d , i t a p p e a r s t o p r o g r e s s 23 "... more o r l e s s a c c o r d i n g t o i t s own d y n a m i c " . The r e s u l t i s o f t e n p r e d i c t a b l e : i n c r e a s e s i n s u p p l y may c o n - t i n u e f o r some t i m e e v e n a f t e r t h e o r i g i n a l s c a r c i t y has been s a t i a t e d , g e n e r a t i n g an e x c e s s s u p p l y t h a t i s com- p a r a t i v e l y d i f f i c u l t t o a b s o r b . Land p r i c e s n a t u r a l l y f l u c t u a t e s y n c h r o n o u s l y w i t h t h e r e l a t i v e c o n d i t i o n s o f s u p p l y . The f r e q u e n t r e p e t i t i o n o f t h i s p e c u l i a r t r a i t h a s p r o d u c e d t h e r e l a t i v e l y g r e a t i n s t a b i l i t y i n r a t e s o f u r b a n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t and t h e e v e n g r e a t e r i n s t a b i l i t y i n t h e p r i c e s o f u r b a n l a n d : The l a s t c e n t u r y and a h a l f on t h i s c o n - t i n e n t p r o v i d e s a s t o r y o f r e a l e s t a t e booms and c o l l a p s e s o v e r and o v e r a g a i n . These i n s t a b i l i t i e s have t h e i r o r i g i n s i n t h e g e n e r a l f o r c e s w h i c h p r o d u c e l o n g c y c l e s i n e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t . However t h e s e f o r c e s have h ad a p e c u l i a r l y s e v e r e i m p a c t on t h e m a r k e t s i n u r b a n l a n d and s t r u c t u r e s . Ease o f e n t r y , i m p e r f e c t i o n s o f k n o w l e d g e , u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t t h e s t a t e o f t h e m a r k e t , a c o n s i d e r a b l e g e s t a t i o n p e r i o d b e t ween t h e i n i t i a t i o n and t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f e f f o r t s t o i n c r e a s e t h e s u p p l y , t h e d u r a b i l i t y o f t h e goods and the s h o r t - r u n i r r e v e r s i b i l i t y o f changes 60 i n s u p p l y - a l l o f t h e s e a p p e a r t o p l a y some r o l e i n g e n e r a t i n g t h e i n s t a b i l i t i e s or i n p r o d u c i n g u n u s u a l l y s e r i o u s i n s t a - b i l i t i e s i n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t when t h e y are g e n e r a t e d by b r o a d e c o n o m i c c h a n g e s . 2 4 A n o t h e r b a s i s f o r p u b l i c i n t e r v e n t i o n a t t h e l o c a l l e v e l i n t h e u r b a n l a n d m a r k e t c o n c e r n s t h e p r o v i s i o n and c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f " p u b l i c g o ods". I n t h e c o n t e x t o f u r b a n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t , p u b l i c goods r e f e r t o t h e p r o v i s i o n o f s e r v i c e s , u t i l i t i e s , and common f a c i l i t i e s t h a t t h e p r i - v a t e s e c t o r m i g h t e i t h e r n o t p r o v i d e o r c o - o r d i n a t e i n t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t . I n t e r d e p e n d e n c y and E x t e r n a l i t i e s One o f t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o r u r - ban l a n d i s t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e o f one l a n d use on a n o t h e r I t i s t h i s f e a t u r e t h a t b y i t s e l f f orms t h e f u n d a m e n t a l b a s i s o f g o v e r n m e n t a l i n t e r v e n t i o n i n t h e m a r k e t p r o c e s s e s t h a t o r g a n i z e u r b a n l a n d - u s e . The p r i v a t e use o f r e a l e s t a t e f r e q u e n t l y p r o d u c e s " s p i l l o v e r e f f e c t s " , w h i c h a r e t h e u n i n t e n d e d , b u t i m p o r - t a n t -- and o f t e n h a r m f u l -- c o n s e q u e n c e s o f p r i v a t e a c - t i o n on the community i n p a r t o r as a w h o l e . These e f - f e c t s , w h i c h c a n be i n t h e f o r m o f b e n e f i t s o r i n c o n v e n - i e n c e s , a r e u s u a l l y e x t e r n a l t o the p r i v a t e u s e r , and war- r a n t c l o s e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n as t h e y a p p l y t o l a n d - u s e and d e v e l o p m e n t . The d e v e l o p m e n t o f l a n d r e s o u r c e s has b e e n p o s s i b l e b e c a u s e man has been w i l l i n g and a b l e t o d e f i n e c e r t a i n human r i g h t s -- i n c l u d i n g r i g h t s i n l a n d -- and c l o t h e them w i t h t h e s a n c t i o n s o f l a w . As Hannah and K r a u s z s . t a t e , "We may d i s a g r e e a b o u t t h e n a t u r e and a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e s e r i g h t s , b u t we w i l l a l l a g r e e t h a t l a n d r e s o u r c e s c o u l d n o t be d e v e l o p e d i f t h e r e were no r i g h t s and no s a n c t i o n i n g a u t h o r i t y " . ^5 p r e s e n t l e g a l f r a m e w o r k a t t e m p t s t o m a i n t a i n b o t h t h e r i g h t s o f p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y and p r i v a t e v o l i t i o n , w h i e , a t t h e same t i m e , p r o v i d e f o r t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t . W i t h s u c h a s y s t e m , c o n f l i c t i s i n - e v i t a b l e . A c c o r d i n g t o W e h r w e i n , l a n d p r o b l e m s a p p e a r i n t h e i r most a c u t e f o r m on t h r e e f r i n g e s o r t r a n s i t i o n z o n e s : (a) t h e a r e a b e t w e e n a r a b l e f a r m l a n d and g r a z i n g ; (b) t h e zone between farms and f o r e s t s ; and (c) t h e s u b u r b a n a r e a l y i n g b e t ween t h e b u i l t - u p c i t y and f a r m s ? ^ I t i s i n t h i s l a s t zone -- t h e r u r a l - u r b a n f r i n g e -- t h a t t h e p o t e n - t i a l f o r p r o b l e m s o r c o n f l i c t o f i n t e r e s t o r u s e i s t h e g r e a t e s t . As m e n t i o n e d , i t i s g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d t h a t t h e s y s - tem o f " m i x e d " c a p i t a l i s m r e s t s on two f u n d a m e n t a l p r i n - c i p l e s : (a) p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y , and (b) f r e e d o m o f c o n t r a c t . S o c i e t y g r a n t s t o the owner o f p r o p e r t y the " r i g h t " t o a c t i n g i v e n ways and s o c i e t y p r o t e c t s the owner i n t h a t r i g h t . 62. W i t h few e x c e p t i o n s , s o c i e t y a t l a r g e does n o t i n t e r f e r e i n a p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l ' s use o f h i s p r o p e r t y -- p r o v i d e d t h a t h i s o f i t does n o t a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t o t h e r p e r s o n s . I n - h e r e n t i n t h e c o n s t r u c t o f p r o p e r t y r i g h t s i s t h e p a r t i c u - l a r r i g h t a n d / o r a b i l i t y t h r o u g h t h e use o f p r o p e r t y t o b e n e f i t o n e s e l f ( " i n t e r n a l i t y " ) , a n d / o r t o harm o r b e n e f i t 27 o t h e r s ( " e x t e r n a l i t y " ) . I n l a n d r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t d e c i s i o n i n g e n e r a l , and i n u r b a n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t s s p e c i f i c a l l y , d i v e r g e n c i e s b e t w e e n s o c i a l and p r i v a t e c o s t s and b e n e f i t s a r e n o t un- common -- t h e y r e p r e s e n t t h e p o s s i b l e e x t e r n a l i t i e s o r " s p i l l o v e r " e f f e c t s o f p r i v a t e d e c i s i o n s upon o t h e r s e g - ments o f s o c i e t y . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o c o n s i d e r some o f t h e ways t h a t s o c i e t y may be a f f e c t e d -- b o t h a d v e r s e l y and b e n e f i c i a l l y - - b y p r i v a t e d e v e l o p m e n t d e c i s i o n s . T a k e , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e c a s e o f a d e v e l o p e r c o n s t r u c t i n g a p r o - j e c t i n an i s o l a t e d r u r a l a r e a ; one way i n w h i c h t h i s m i g h t i m p i n g e on o t h e r s c o n c e r n s t h e c o s t s o f i n s t a l l i n g m u n i c i p a l s e r v i c e s and f a c i l i t i e s . I f t h e d e v e l o p e r i s c h a r g e d w i t h t h e c o m p l e t e c o s t o f t h i s i n s t a l l a t i o n , t h e r e i s n o t h i n g w rong. However, i f f o r some r e a s o n he i s c h a r g e d l e s s t h a n t h e f u l l i n s t a l l a t i o n c o s t , t h e n , by o r i g i n a l l y m a k i n g t h e d e c i s i o n o f where t o c o n s t r u c t h i s p r o j e c t , he i s d e c i d i n g t h a t some c o s t s a r e t o be i n c u r r e d w h i c h he h i m s e l f i s n o t g o i n g t o b e a r . I n d e e d , i t i s c o n c e i v a b l e t h a t i f he was f o r c e d t o b e a r t h e w h o l e , t h e m a r g i n a l c o s t m i g h t have c a u s e d h i m t o r e l o c a t e h i s deve- l o p m e n t e l s e w h e r e w i t h l o w e r c o s t s f o r s e r v i c e s and u t i l i - t i e s . T h i s example i l l u s t r a t e s t h e f a c t t h a t where a d e c i s i o n as t o l a n d u s e i m p o s e s c o s t s on o t h e r p e o p l e , w h i c h a r e n o t r e i m b u r s e d , t h e d e c i s i o n t a k e n may be a n t i s o c i a l , so t h a t t h e r e i s a c a s e f o r i n t e r f e r e n c e by p u b l i c agen- c i e s i n t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r . The f o r e g o i n g example was i l l u s t r a t i v e o f a p e c u n i a r y s p i l l o v e r e f f e c t , b u t t h e c a s e f o r p u b l i c i n t e r f e r e n c e a l s o a p p l i e s where t h e c o s t i m p o s e d on s o c i e t y i s n o t r e a d i l y q u a n t i f i a b l e i n m o n e t a r y t e r m s . I f a f i r m o p e r a t e s a p u l p m i l l , t h e r e s u l t i n g s m e l l and p o l l u t i o n i s p a r t o f t h e s o c i a l c o s t o f p r o d u c i n g w o o d - p u l p b u t n o t a p r i v a t e c o s t t o t h e m a n u f a c t u r e r . The o r i g i n a l d e c i s i o n o f where t o l o c a t e p r o d u c t i o n was b a s e d p r i m a r i l y on t h e r e l a t i v e p r i v a t e c o s t s -- t h a t i s , t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f d i f f e r e n t l o c a t i o n s . B u t f r o m s o c i e t y ' s p o i n t o f v i e w i t i s d e s i - r a b l e t h a t t h e s m e l l and p o l l u t i o n s h o u l d a l s o be c o n s i - d e r e d ; t h u s , t h e r e i s a c a s e f o r p u b l i c i n t e r f e r e n c e . I n t h e s e two e x a m p l e s , t h e n , t h e r e i s a c a s e f o r i n - t e r f e r e n c e where t h e s o c i a l c o s t o f d e v o t i n g a p r o p e r t y t o a p a r t i c u l a r use e x c e e d s the p r i v a t e c o s t -- t h a t i s , t h e c o s t i n c u r r e d by t h e d e v e l o p e r h i m s e l f . However, t h e same t y p e o f r e a s o n i n g a p p l i e s where t h e s o c i a l b e n e f i t f r o m a p a r t i c u l a r l a n d use d i v e r g e s f r o m t h e b e n e f i t t o t h e u s e r . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e b e n e f i t t o a d e v e l o p e r o f d e m o l i s h i n g a s e r i e s o f v a c a n t , con- demned h o u s e s and e r e c t i n g an a r c h i t e c t u r a l l y p l e a s i n g and f u n c t i o n a l a p a r t m e n t b l o c k i s measured by t h e n e t income he e x p e c t s t o r e c e i v e f r o m t h e p r o j e c t . The s o c i a l bene- f i t i n c l u d e s n o t o n l y t h i s , b u t a l s o t h e r e s u l t i n g im- p r o v e m e n t t o t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d . I t i s c o n c e i v a b l e t h a t t h e p r i v a t e b e n e f i t i s t o o s m a l l t o make t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p r i v a t e l y p r o f i t a b l e , y e t the t o t a l b e n e f i t i s s u f f i c i e n t t o make i t d e s i r a b l e . T h u s , i n t h i s e x a m p l e , s o c i a l bene- f i t e x c e e d s p r i v a t e b e n e f i t and t h e r e i s a c a s e f o r p u b l i c i n t e r f e r e n c e -- t h i s t i m e t o e n c o u r a g e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t . 2 8 The g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e can now be s t a t e d : where s o c i a l c o s t e x c e e d s p r i v a t e c o s t , p r i v a t e i n t e r e s t s w i l l s o metimes do what i s n o t i n t h e s o c i a l i n t e r e s t and t h e r e i s a c a s e f o r r e s t r i c t i v e i n t e r f e r e n c e . Where s o c i a l b e ne- f i t e x c e e d s p r i v a t e b e n e f i t , p r i v a t e i n t e r e s t s w i l l some- t i m e s n o t d e v e l o p and t h u s f a i l t o do what i s i n t h e s o c i a l i n t e r e s t . H e r e t h e r e i s a c a s e f o r i n t e r f e r e n c e t o e n c o u r a g e d e v e l o p m e n t . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e r e i s a c a s e f o r c o n t r o l l i n g d e v e l o p m e n t when t h e d e v e l o p e r e i t h e r does n o t b e a r a l l t h e c o s t s o f the d e v e l o p m e n t o r does n o t r e c e i v e a l l t h e b e n e f i t . 65. I t m i g h t be a r g u e d t h a t t h i s a p p r o a c h , i n terms o f t h e d i v e r g e n c e b e tween p r i v a t e and s o c i a l c o s t s and bene- f i t s , i s i n a d e q u a t e b e c a u s e i t does n o t c o n s i d e r t h e n e e d t o a l l o c a t e l a n d between c o m p e t i n g u s e s . S u c h i s n o t t h e c a s e , however. L a n d i s a l l o c a t e d by t h e d e c i s i o n s o f o w n e r s , and t h e s e w i l l be the c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n s where (a) p r i v a t e and s o c i a l c o s t s a r e e q u a l , and (b) p r i v a t e and s o c i a l b e n e f i t s a r e e q u a l i n a l l t h e a l t e r n a t i v e d e v e l o p - 29 ment schemes w h i c h t h e y c o n s i d e r . T h e r e i s n e e d t o i n - t e r f e r e o n l y when t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s a r e n o t f u l f i l l e d . I n c o n c l u s i o n , t h e c a s e f o r p u b l i c i n t e r f e r e n c e i n l a n d r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t can be s u m m a r i z e d by t h e f o l - 30 l o w i n g two " e q u a t i o n s " : 1. P u b l i c r i g h t t o c o n t r o l use o f p r i v a t e l a n d i s e q u i v a l e n t t o p r i v a t e r i g h t t o c r e a t e p r o b l e m s a f f e c t i n g t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t . 2 . The d e g r e e o f p u b l i c i n t e r e s t -- and h e n c e , t h e amount o f j u s t i f i a b l e p u b l i c c o n t r o l o f p r i v a t e a f f a i r s - - i s p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e d e n s i t y and i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e o f p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e s o c i a l u n i t s i n v o l v e d . Man i f f r e e and i n d e p e n d e n t o n l y t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t he i s a l o n e . As he becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o t h e r men, f r e e d o m and i n d e p e n d e n c e d i m i n i s h , w h i l e r e s - t r i c t i o n and i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i n c r e a s e . F r i e d m a n con- c l u d e s t h a t : 6 6 . The n e e d f o r government i n t h e s e r e s - p e c t s a r i s e s b e c a u s e a b s o l u t e f r e e d o m i s i m p o s s i b l e . However a t t r a c t i v e an- a r c h y may be as a p h i l o s o p h y , i t i s n o t f e a s i b l e i n a w o r l d o f i m p e r f e c t men. Men's freedoms c a n c o n f l i c t , and when t h e y d o , one man's f r e e d o m must be l i m i t e d t o p r e s e r v e a n o t h e r ' s - as a Supreme C o u r t J u s t i c e once p u t i t , "My f r e e d o m t o move my f i s t must be l i m i t e d by t h e p r o x i m i t y o f y o u r c h i n .32. METHODS OF CONTROLLING LAND USE L e g a l C o n t r o l s Z o n i n g I n e s s e n c e , z o n i n g i s a means o f i n s u r i n g t h a t t h e l a n d u s e s o f a community a r e p r o p e r l y s i t u a t e d i n r e l a t i o n t o one a n o t h e r , p r o v i d i n g a d e q u a t e s p a c e f o r e a c h p o s s i b l e t y p e o f d e v e l o p m e n t . I t i s p r o b a b l y t h e s i n g l e most com- monly u s e d l e g a l d e v i c e a v a i l a b l e f o r r e g u l a t i n g p r i v a t e d e v e l o p m e n t . I n t h e o r y , z o n i n g e n c o u r a g e s t h e most a p p r o - p r i a t e use o f l a n d r e s o u r c e s -- i t s b r o a d o b j e c t i v e s b e i n g t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f l a n d among the most u r g e n t u s e s , c o n s i s - t e n t w i t h some t y p e o f m a s t e r p l a n . Z o n i n g i s a p r o d u c t o f t h e T w e n t i e s , w h i c h a t f i r s t g l a n c e a p p e a r s somewhat u n u s u a l , f o r t h i s p a r t i c u l a r p e r i o d has been t e r m e d "... t h e apex o f f r e e " e n t e r p r i s e t h o u g h t i n t h i s c o u n t r y " . H o w e v e r s i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o u n d e r s t a n d t h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f z o n i n g were a c c e p t e d by t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r n o t because, t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c was i n f a v o r o f government r e g u l a t i o n and d e s i r e d more o f t h e same, b u t r a t h e r b e - c a u s e i n d i v i d u a l p r o p e r t y owners w a n t e d t o be p r o t e c t e d 33 f r o m e a c h o t h e r . The f i r s t c o m p r e h e n s i v e z o n i n g p l a n was a d o p t e d by t h e c i t y o f New Y o r k i n 1916, f o r t h e p u r - p o s e o f c o n t r o l l i n g t h e use and l o c a t i o n o f b u i l d i n g s t h r o u g h o u t t h e c i t y . The e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e c o n c e p t o f z o n i n g was a c c e p t e d f o l l o w i n g New Y o r k ' s l e a d , i s amply d e m o n s t r a t e d by the f a c t t h a t i n 1919 t w e n t y c i t i e s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a d o p t e d z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e s , b u t w i t h i n t e n y e a r s , t h e f i g u r e h a d r i s e n t o 973.-^4 The z o n i n g p r o c e s s i n v o l v e s t h e d i v i s i o n o f a m u n i - c i p a l i t y i n t o d i s t r i c t s , and t h e s u b s e q u e n t r e g u l a t i o n w i t h i n t h o s e d i s t r i c t s o f (a) t h e h e i g h t and b u l k o f b u i l - d i n g s and o t h e r s t r u c t u r e s ; (b) t h e a r e a o f a l o t w h i c h may be o c c u p i e d and t h e s i z e o f r e q u i r e d open s p a c e s ; ( c ) t h e d e n s i t y o f p o p u l a t i o n ; and (d) t h e use o f b u i l d i n g s and l a n d f o r r e s i d e n t i a l , c o m m e r c i a l , i n d u s t r i a l o r o t h e r p u r p o s e s . Z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e s a r e u s u a l l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d by t h e i r " n e g a t i v e " a t t i t u d e f o r t h e y o p e r a t e by p r o h i b i t i n g t h o s e t y p e s o f l a n d u s e s t h a t a r e i n c o m p a t i b l e w i t h o t h e r u s e s . Of m a j o r c o n c e r n t o the i n d i v i d u a l c i t i z e n , t h o u g h , i s t he a f f e c t o f z o n i n g on t h e s t a b i l i z a t i o n and p r e s e r - 68. v a t i o n o f p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . T h r o u g h t h e a c t o f s e p a r a t i n g e c o n o m i c a l l y u n r e l a t e d l a n d - u s e s , z o n i n g t e n d s t o p r e - s e r v e b o t h t h e l a n d o w n e r ' s i n v e s t m e n t and t h e t a x a b l e v a - l u e o f t h e p r o p e r t y f o r m u n i c i p a l a s s e s s m e n t p u r p o s e s . A l t h o u g h t h e p r o c e s s o f s e g r e g a t i n g l a n d u s e s may p r e s e r v e s i t e u t i l i t y , i t does n o t f o l l o w t h a t t h e m a i n o b j e c t i v e o f z o n i n g s h o u l d be t h e m a i n t e n a n c e o r c r e a t i o n o f p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . On t h i s p a r t i c u l a r p o i n t , R a w l s o n comments t h a t : V a l u e i s n o t a u t o m a t i c a l l y c r e a t e d o r e n h a n c e d b y z o n i n g . As a m a t t e r o f r e - c o r d , t h e o p p o s i t e i s q u i t e o f t e n t h e c a s e . I n many c i t i e s l a n d zoned f o r b u s i n e s s f a r e x c e e d s t h e demand f o r b u s i n e s s s i t e s ; and o f t e n s u c h l a n d i s n o t i n t h e p a t h o f b u s i n e s s g r o w t h . A l s o , t h e r e a r e many i n s t a n c e s where l a n d i s i m p r o v e d w i t h an e c o n o m i c a l l y p r o f i t a b l e use w h i c h i s n o t i n c o n f o r m i t y w i t h e x i s t i n g z o n i n g . 6 & 35. I t h as been a r g u e d f u r t h e r t h a t n o t o n l y i s t h e p r e s e r v a - t i o n o f p r o p e r t y v a l u e s as s u c h n o t a p r o p e r f u n c t i o n o f z o n i n g , i t c o u l d be a c h i e v e d more a p p r o p r i a t e l y t h r o u g h 3 6 c o v e n a n t s o r s i m i l a r d e v i c e s . O r d i n a r i l y , z o n i n g i s o n l y i n d i r e c t l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h a c h i e v i n g a e s t h e t i c e n d s , a l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r s t o be an i n c r e a s i n g t e n d e n c y t o i n c l u d e w i t h i n z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e s p r o v i s i o n s w h i c h a r e s o l i d l y b a s e d on c o n c e p t s o f " g e n e r a l 69. w e l f a r e " . T h i s t r e n d has been s u p p o r t e d on numerous o c c a - s i o n s by l e g a l p r o c l a m a t i o n s , s i m i l a r t o t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t i s s u e d by a U.S. S u p e r i o r C o u r t : ... i n o r d e r t o be v a l i d , z o n i n g r e s t r i c t i o n s and l i m i t a t i o n s must have a t e n d e n c y t o promote t h e g e n e r a l w e l - f a r e by p r o h i b i t i n g i n p a r t i c u l a r a r e a s , u s e s w h i c h w o u l d be d e t r i m e n t a l t o the f u l l e n j o y m e n t o f t h e e s t a b l i s h e d u se f o r t h e p r o p e r t y i n t h a t a r e a . The r e a l o b j e c t , h o w e v e r , o f p r o m o t i n g t h e gene- r a l w e l f a r e by z o n i n g o r d i n a n c e s i s t o p r o t e c t t h e p r i v a t e u s e and e n j o y m e n t o f p r o p e r t y and t o pro m o t e t h e w e l f a r e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l p r o p e r t y owner. I n o t h e r w o r d s , p r o m o t i n g t h e g e n e r a l w e l - f a r e i s a means o f p r o t e c t i n g p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y . 5 J S u p p o r t by t h e c o u r t s f o r some t y p e o f a e s t h e t i c c o n t r o l - does n o t i n f e r t h e s p e c i f i c a c c e p t a n c e o f a e s t h e t i c s as a s o u n d b a s i s f o r e x e r c i s e o f p o l i c e p o wer, b u t r a t h e r a g e n e r a l l i b e r a l i z a t i o n i n d e f i n i n g t h e c o n c e p t o f " t h e p u b l i c w e l f a r e " . Goodman c i t e s t h e c l a s s i c c a s e i n t h i s r e s p e c t -- t h e f o l l o w i n g o p i n i o n by J u s t i c e W i l l i a m D o u g l a s o f t h e U.S. S u p e r i o r C o u r t : ... t h e c o n c e p t o f t h e p u b l i c w e l f a r e i s b r o a d and i n c l u s i v e . . . . The v a l u e s i t r e p r e s e n t s a r e s p i r i t u a l as w e l l as phy- s i c a l , a e s t h e t i c as w e l l as m o n e t a r y . I t i s w i t h i n t h e power o f the l e g i s l a t u r e t o d e t e r m i n e t h a t t h e community s h o u l d be b e a u t i f u l as w e l l as h e a l t h y , s p a c i o u s as w e l l as c l e a n , w e l l - b a l a n c e d as w e l l as c a r e f u l l y p a t r o l l e d . . . . 35 70 The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n t h e p r e v i o u s p a r a g r a p h i s n o t t h e f a c t t h a t a e s t h e t i c s a r e w i t h i n t h e r e a l m o f p o l i c e power p r o t e c t i o n , b u t t h e r a t h e r o b v i o u s t r e n d t h a t i s d e v e l o p i n g , o f w h i c h a e s t h e t i c s ' c o n t r o l i s o n l y a s m a l l e l e m e n t . The t r e n d , o f c o u r s e , i s t o i n - c r e a s e d p u b l i c c o n t r o l s f o r , "... as h i s t o r y d e m o n s t r a t e s , s o o n e r o r l a t e r , i n one way o r a n o t h e r , a n y t h i n g i s sub- 4 j e c t t o r e g u l a t i o n i f p u b l i c i n t e r e s t demands i t " . W i t h r e s p e c t . t o t h e c o n t r o l o f a e s t h e t i c s , i t c a n c e r t a i n l y be e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e i n t h e f u t u r e -- as t h e d i r e c t r e s u l t o f t h e s t e a d i l y m o u n t i n g c o n c e r n f o r p r o t e c t i o n o f t h e en- v i r o n m e n t as a w h o l e . I n c o n c l u s i o n , b e c a u s e l a n d - u s e c o n t r o l s a r e r e - q u i r e d t o p r e v e n t i n c o m p a t i b l e u s e s f r o m c a u s i n g c o s t s o r i n c o n v e n i e n c e s t o s o c i e t y , t h e e c o n o m i c j u s t i f i c a t i o n o f z o n i n g i s b a s e d on t h e r e s o u r c e r e a l l o c a t i o n f u n c t i o n o f g o v e r n m e n t . ^ F u r t h e r t o t h i s p o i n t , N e t z e r c o n c l u d e s t h a t , A y e s - o r - n o c o n t r o l s y s t e m l i k e z o n i n g can be j u s t i f i e d o n l y i f i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e f o r e c a s t s p r o v i d e f o r so n e a r l y an o p t i m a l p a t t e r n o f l a n d use t h a t t h e y must be a d h e r e d t o r i g i d l y , and i f i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t community i n t e r e s t s w i l l be i n c o n f l i c t f r e q u e n t l y . O t h e r w i s e , a s y s t e m o f c o n t r o l s t h a t a l l o w e d more f l e x i b i l i t y i n l a n d - u s e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g w o u l d c l e a r l y be p r e f e r a b l e . 4 2 S u b d i v i s i o n C o n t r o l I n t h e e n t i r e p r o c e s s o f c i t y g r o w t h , t h e r e i s no s t e p more c r i t i c a l t h a n t h e o r i g i n a l s u b d i v i s i o n o f raw l a n d .... S u b d i v i d e r s ... a r e c i t y b u i l d e r s , b u i l d e r s o f a s t r u c t u r e t h a t l i v e s down t h r o u g h t h e y e a r s as a boon o r a b u r d e n f o r the men and women and c h i l d r e n who must l i v e o u t t h e i r l i v e s w i t h i n an e n v i r o n m e n t o v e r w h i c h t h e y h a d no o r i g i n a l c o n t r o l . 4 7 A r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t f o r m o f government l a n d - u s e r e g u l a t i o n i s t h a t c o n t r o l l i n g s u b d i v i s i o n d e v e l o p m e n t . W h i l e i t i s p a r t i c u l a r l y a p p l i c a b l e on t h e r a p i d l y d eve- l o p i n g u r b a n f r i n g e , i t s p u r p o s e i s t o p r o t e c t l a n d o w n e r s f r o m e c o n o m i c l o s s e s , and t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c f r o m s o c i a l c o s t s , a c c r u i n g f r o m i n f e r i o r l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t s . I t i s an i n s t r u m e n t s i m i l a r t o z o n i n g , b u t "... one t h a t i s more i m p o r t a n t t h a n z o n i n g i n r a p i d l y ... ( u r b a n i z i n g ) a r e a s b e c a u s e i t c a n be u t i l i z e d t o s e t t h e p a t t e r n o f 43 d e v e l o p m e n t . " L o c a l government c o n t r o l o v e r s u b d i v i s i o n a c t i v i t y a p p e a r e d o n l y a f t e r t h e c o n c e p t o f z o n i n g was f u l l y a c - c e p t e d , and i t was n o t u n t i l t h e 1930's t h a t i t became th e r u l e r a t h e r t h a n t h e e x c e p t i o n . As Goodman and Kaufman s t a t e , many s t a t u t e s and o r d i n a n c e s were o n l y ,.. a d o p t e d as a r e a c t i o n t o t h e damage done t o t h e f i s c a l i n t e g r i t y o f c o m m u n i t i e s by e x c e s s i v e and p r e m a t u r e , s u b d i v i s i o n a c t i v i t y . D e v e l o p e r s i n t h e l a t e 1 9 2 0 ' s , who a n t i c i p a t e d q u i c k and e a s y p r o f i t s , b o u g h t l a n d on t h e o u t - s k i r t s o f u r b a n a r e a s t o b u i l d homes f o r s a l e . U t i l i t i e s , s t r e e t s , c u r b s , g u t t e r s , and o t h e r p u b l i c i m p r o v e m e n t s s e r v i c i n g t h e p r o p o s e d t r a c t s were p r o - v i d e d by the l o c a l i t i e s . I n t u r n , t h e s e c o m m u n i t i e s e x p e c t e d t o r e c o u p t h e i r i n i t i a l e x p e n s e s t h r o u g h e x p e c t e d t a x r e t u r n s f r o m p r o p e r t y d e v e l o p m e n t . The b u i l d i n g boom, h o w e v e r , p e t e r e d o u t , l e a v i n g s t r e t c h e s o f l a n d , s e m i - i m p r o v e d , w i t h u s e l e s s s t r e e t s and weed-choked u t i l i t i e s . 4 4 As a d i r e c t r e s u l t o f t h i s s i t u a t i o n , a s e r i e s o f c o m p l i - c a t i o n s a r o s e p r o p e r t i e s became t a x d e l i n q u e n t , m o r t - gaged l a n d s were f o r e c l o s e d , t i t l e s t o l o t s o f t e n became c o n f u s e d . 4 5 M u n i c i p a l b a n k r u p t c y was n o t an uncommon c o n s e q u e n c e , as c i t i e s were f o r c e d t o pay o f f on i m p r o v e - ment bonds f o r w h i c h t h e y had l i t t l e hope o f e v e r b e i n g r e i m b u r s e d . The s u b s e q u e n t s e a r c h f o r b e t t e r measures o f p r o t e c t i o n f o r c o m m u n i t i e s l e d t o t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f s u b d i v i s i o n o r d i n a n c e s . T o d ay, s u b d i v i s i o n c o n t r o l forms a v i t a l i n g r e d i e n t o f community and r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g p r o g r a m s . W i t h o u t i t , p l a n n i n g w o u l d be a f u t i l e p r o c e s s . A c c o r d i n g t o Goodman and Kaufman, two e s s e n t i a l f u n c t i o n s a r e p e r f o r m e d by s u b d i v i s i o n c o n t r o l t h a t a r e i n d i s p e n s i b l e t o t h e p l a n n i n j p r o c e s s . ^ I n i t i a l l y , c o m m u n i t i e s a r e a b l e t o r e g u l a t e a s p e c t s o f t h e d e s i g n and l a y o u t o f p r i v a t e l a n d s i n a c - c o r d a n c e w i t h what w o u l d o t h e r w i s e have b e e n an i n e f f e c - t u a l m a s t e r p l a n . S e c o n d l y , c o m m u n i t i e s p o s s e s s a power- f u l r e g u l a t o r y i n s t r u m e n t w i t h w h i c h t o a c t u a l l y shape t h e c h a r a c t e r o f new g r o w t h -- e s p e c i a l l y i n u r b a n f r i n g e a r e a s , where c o m p r e h e n s i v e p l a n n i n g has i t s g r e a t e s t po- t e n t i a l . I n c o n c l u s i o n , as D e l a f o n s o b s e r v e s , "... a l m o s t e v e r y o n e ( e x c e p t t h e l a n d s p e c u l a t o r ) s t a n d s t o b e n e f i t f r o m t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f z o n i n g and s u b d i v i s i o n c o n t r o l " . ^ F i s c a 1 Me as l i r e s The g e n e r a l c a s e f o r p r o p e r t y t a x a t i o n i s a method f o r c o n t r o l l i n g l a n d - u s e and u r b a n g r o w t h has b e e n w i d e l y d i s c u s s e d . ^ However, t h e r e has been r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e few i n n o v a t i v e p r o p o s a l s t h a t have been made i n t h i s a r e a . E v e n t h o u g h p o l i c i e s o f a s s e s s m e n t and t a x a t i o n have t h e p o t e n t i a l t o e x a c t t h e s t r o n g e s t and most p e r v a d i n g i n f l u e n c e on t h e q u a l i t y o f u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t , "... a t p r e s e n t t h e y a r e i n no way d i r e c t e d t o t h e a c h i e v e m e n t o f s o u n d c o m m u n i t i e s " . 49 Ra wlson's argument i n t h i s c o n n e c t i o n i s as f o l l o w s : The n e t w o r k o f p u b l i c . l a n d u s e s and u t i l i t i e s p r o v i d e s a p h y s i c a l s k e l e t o n w i t h i n w h i c h p r i v a t e p e r s o n s u s e , o r do n o t u s e , t h e l a n d i n a community. M u n i c i p a l p l a n s , b u t t r e s s e d by z o n i n g and o t h e r r e g u l a t i o n s , i s s u e a s e r i e s o f n e g a t i v e commands: " t h o u s h a l t n o t p l a c e a s i n g l e - f a m i l y d w e l l i n g i n t h i s a r e a " , " t h o u s h a l t n o t b u i l d h i g h e r t h a n e i g h t s t o r e y s " and so on. B u t t h e p o s i t i v e d e c i s i o n s as t o what s h a l l be b u i l t , and w h e r e , and when - t h e d e c i s i o n s t h a t p u t f l e s h on t h e s k e l e t o n - a r e made by t h e t h o u - s a n d s o f i n d i v i d u a l l a n d o w n e r s . Thus i t i s l a r g e l y t r u e t h a t , u n d e r o u r s y s t e m , i t i s n o t town p l a n n e r s a n d p o l i c y makers who d e c i d e l a n d u s e , b u t i n d i v i d u a l l a n d o w n e r s . The r e a c t i o n s o f t h e s e men and i n s t i t u t i o n s t o c h a n g i n g e c o n o m i c and s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s a r e c r u c i a l . H e r e i n l i e s t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e c l a i m t h a t t a x a t i o n has a power- f u l e f f e c t on u r b a n g r o w t h . r n I n s p i t e o f i t s tremendous p o t e n t i a l f o r i m p a c t on l a n d - u s e d e c i s i o n s , t h e power o f t a x a t i o n i s p r o b a b l y t h e l e a s t u n d e r s t o o d o f a l l government fo r m s o f c o n t r o l . Too o f t e n i t i s v i e w e d s i m p l y as a r e v e n u e p r o d u c i n g de- v i c e , w h i l e i t s s o c i o - e c o n o m i c i m p l i c a t i o n s a r e o v e r l o o k e d . As w i l l be l a t e r d e m o n s t r a t e d , t h e power o f t a x a t i o n c a n n o t o n l y be b e n e f i c i a l i n i t s e n c o u r a g e m e n t o f c e r t a i n a s p e c t s o f l a n d - u s e , b u t i t c a n be d e s t r u c t i v e -- " i t can d e s t r o y l a n d use p l a n n i n g and z o n i n g as w e l l as d e s - r 9 t r o y m g a l a n d o w n e r ' s a l t e r n a t i v e s " . I n any d i s c u s s i o n o f p r o p e r t y t a x a t i o n , t h e p r o b l e m s o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n and u r b a n s p r a w l a r e bound t o a p p e a r . B r y a n t c i t e s , as an e x a m p l e , a p r e - w a r i n v e s t i g a t i o n by a C o m m i s s i o n on Unemployment a p p o i n t e d by t h e O n t a r i o Government, w h i c h a d v o c a t e d s i t e v a l u e t a x a t i o n on t h e g r o u n d s t h a t "a r e f o r m o f t h e p r e s e n t s y s t e m o f t a x i n g l a n d a p p e a r s i n d i s p e n s a b l e t o l e s s e n t h e e v i l s f r o m s p e c u - l a t i o n i n l a n d w h i c h c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e r e c e n t i n d u s t r i a l 53 d e p r e s s i o n " . I t has b e e n c l a i m e d , on numerous o c c a s i o n s t h a t a s y s t e m o f t a x a t i o n b a s e d on s i t e v a l u e s , r a t h e r t h a n on b u i l d i n g s and i m p r o v e m e n t s , w o u l d g r e a t l y r e d u c e t h e s o - c a l l e d " s o c i a l e v i l s " o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n i n c a s e s where owners o f v a c a n t l a n d r e a p an u n e a r n e d i n c r e m e n t as 54 a r e s u l t o f l a n d v a l u e a p p r e c i a t i o n . I t i s t h o u g h t t h a t t h e h o l d i n g o f l a n d f o r s p e c u l a t i v e p u r p o s e s w o u l d t h e r e - by be d i s c o u r a g e d , l a n d p r i c e s w o u l d t e n d t o d e c r e a s e , and t h e c o n t i n u a l o u t w a r d e x p a n s i o n i n s e a r c h o f c h e a p e r l a n d w o u l d be c h e c k e d . ^ I n h e r e n t i n t h e t h e o r y o f s i t e v a l u e t a x a t i o n i s t h e b e l i e f t h a t , i f t a x e s were removed a l t o g e t h e r f r o m b u i l d i n g s and i m p r o v e m e n t s , and i n c r e a s e d on l a n d , (a) l a n d w o u l d t h u s become a l e s s a t t r a c t i v e i n v e s t m e n t , and i t w o u l d c o s t more t o h o l d i t i d l e ; (b) t h e r e w o u l d be no l e s s l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r use and i t w o u l d n o t d e t e r i o r a t e w i t h t i m e as b u i l d i n g s do, b u t t h e c o s t o f h o l d i n g i t w o u l d r i s e ; and (c) t h e r e w o u l d be no t a x i n c r e a s e i f the l a n d were b u i l t upon -- t h i s w o u l d have an o b v i o u s b e a r i n g on t h e u r b a n r e n e w a l p r o b l e m as w e l l as on new d e v e l o p m e n t . ^6 P r o p o n e n t s o f t h i s s y s t e m o f h e avy l a n d t a x a t i o n b e l i e v e t h a t t h e n e t r e s u l t w o u l d be "... a t o t a l l y c o n s - t r u c t i v e and a m e l i o r a t i n g e f f e c t i n harmony w i t h t h e aims and e f f o r t s o f c o n s c i o u s town p l a n n i n g " . 57 They d i s c l a i m t h e g e n e r a l i z a t i o n t h a t a h e a v y t a x w o u l d s t i f l e e n t e r - p r i s e , c i t i n g Mason G a f f n e y as h a v i n g s t a t e d : "what s t i f l e s e n t e r p r i s e i s how t h e t a x v a r i e s when t h e t a x - r o p a y e r a c t s e n t e r p r i s i n g " . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t p r e s e n t p r o v i n c i a l l a w does n o t p e r m i t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t o use p r o p e r t y t a x a - t i o n as a p l a n n i n g d e v i c e -- r e g a r d l e s s o f i t s p o t e n t i a l u t i l i t y and e f f e c t i v e n e s s i n t h i s r e s p e c t . I t i s t h e v i e w o f s e v e r a l e x p e r t s t h a t much s p e c u l a - t i v e a c t i v i t y and u r b a n s p r a w l c o u l d be p r e v e n t e d i f p r o - p e r t i e s were a s s e s s e d "by t h e r u l e s " . The p r o b l e m , a c - c o r d i n g t o W e n z l i c k , "... l i e s i n t h e f a i l u r e on t h e p a r t o f a s s e s s o r s t o a s s e s s p r o p e r t i e s on t h e b a s i s o f f a i r m a r k e t v a l u e r a t h e r t h a n on use .... Land use f o r t r u c k g a r d e n i n g o r f a r m i n g i s a s s e s s e d on a n o m i n a l b a s i s , w h i l e a d j o i n i n g l a n d d e v e l o p e d i n t o s u b d i v i s i o n s i s a s s - e s s e d more n e a r l y i n r e l a t i o n s h i p t o i t s f a i r m a r k e t 59 v a l u e " . B r y a n t c o n c u r s w i t h t h i s v i e w p o i n t : ... a t o w h i c h p r o p e r t y g r e a t d e a l depends*on t h e e x t e n t t a x a s s e s s o r s ' v a l u a t i o n s o f a p p r o x i m a t e t o the t r u e m a r k e t v a l u e . U n d e r - a s s e s s m e n t i s c h r o n i c . O p p o n e n e t s o f s i t e v a l u e t a x a t i o n o f t e n e m p h a s i z e t h i s p o i n t . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , v e r y many p a r c e l s o f v a c a n t l a n d r e m a i n u n d e v e l o p e d , e v e n i n t h e h e a r t o f m a t u r e b u i l t - u p a r e a s . I f t h e owners h a d t o p a y t a x e s t h e r e o n b a s e d on t h e i r t r u e m a r k e t v a l u e t h e y w o u l d be l e s s l i k e l y t o l e a v e them u n d e v e l o p e d a day l o n g e r t h a n p o s s i b l e . To t h i s e x t e n t , s p r a w l on t h e o u t s k i r t s w o u l d be d i s c o u r a g e d , and r e d e v e l o p m e n t t o a h i g h e r s t a n d a r d e n c o u r a g e d . f i n S t r i c t l y f r o m an e c o n o m i c s t a n d p o i n t , t h e most p r e - f e r a b l e p r o p e r t y t a x a t i o n s y s t e m w o u l d be one t h a t i m p o s e d v a r i a b l e t a x e s a n d s u b s i d i e s on d i f f e r e n t l a n d u s e s . ^ 1 The m a r g i n a l l y l e s s a t t r a c t i v e l a n d use w o u l d be s u b j e c t t o a h i g h e r t a x , w h i l e t h e most a t t r a c t i v e l a n d u s e s c o u l d be o f f e r e d o u t r i g h t s u b s i d i e s . Then as t h e commu-- n i t y d e v e l o p s , t h e t a x and s u b s i d y t e r m s c o u l d be c h a n g e d so as t o e n c o u r a g e more - - o r d i s c o u r a g e l e s s - s p e c i f i c l a n d u s e s . A c c o r d i n g t o N e t z e r , s u c h a s y s t e m w o u l d have two p a r t i c u l a r a d v a n t a g e s . 6 2 The f i r s t w o u l d be t h e f a c t t h a t i t w o u l d o f f e r t h e p r i v a t e d e v e l o p e r an o p p o r t u n i t y t o make a d j u s t m e n t s i n h i s d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n , and o b t a i n b e t - t e r f i n a n c i a l t e r m s i f t h e s e terms p r o v e d w o r t h w h i l e . M o r e o v e r , he c o u l d t r a d e - o f f among the v a r i o u s f e a t u r e s o f h i s p r o p o s a l , so as t o p r o c u r e t he b e s t t e r m s -- f o r e x a m p l e , he m i g h t p r o v i d e more o f f - s t r e e t p a r k i n g i n o r d e r t o be a l l o w e d g r e a t e r s i t e c o v e r a g e . The o t h e r m a j o r a d v a n t a g e o f t h i s t a x a t i o n s y s t e m w o u l d b e t h a t i t c o u l d p r o v i d e f o r d i r e c t m o n e t a r y c o m p e n s a t i o n t o a d j a c e n t l a n d - owners f o r damages t h a t w o u l d o c c u r f r o m a p r o p o s e d new l a n d u s e . A l t h o u g h t h e p r e s e n t s y s t e m o f z o n i n g i s de- s i g n e d t o l i m i t t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f s u c h damages, t h e o n l y o p t i o n open t o an a d j a c e n t l a n d - u s e r i s t o f o r m a l l y p r o - t e s t t h e p o r p o s e d new u s e d , no m a t t e r how s m a l l t h e p r o s - p e c t i v e harm. As an e x a m p l e , l a n d - u s e changes l e a d i n g t o h i g h e r - d e n s i t y h o u s i n g i n a p a r t i c u l a r n e i g h b o u r h o o d m i g h t r e s u l t i n i n c r e a s e d t r a f f i c v o l u m e s . E v e n i f t h e a c t u a l i n c r e a s e was s m a l l , t h e r e i s a l w a y s t h e i n c e n t i v e t o ob- j e c t t o p r o p o s e d z o n i n g c h a n g e s . However, t h e r e c o u l d c o n - c e i v a b l y be many i n s t a n c e s w h e r e i n a s i m p l e payment o f f i n a n c i a l damages -- f o r e x a m p l e , a s e t t l e m e n t t h a t e n a b l e s e x i s t i n g p r o p e r t y owners t o c o n s t r u c t p r o t e c t i v e f e n c e s and s h r u b b e r y -- m i g h t be s u f f i c i e n t t o e l i m i n a t e t h e o b j e c t i o n . C l e a r l y , as N e t z e r o b s e r v e s , ... s u c h a s y s t e m r e q u i r e s a g r e a t d e a l o f s o p h i s t i c a t e d d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g by p l a n n i n g a g e n c i e s , i n e x p l i c i t , quan- t i t a t i v e t e r m s . I t i s by no means e a s y t o i m p l e m e n t . B u t the d i f f i c u l t i e s s h o u l d n o t d i s q u a l i f y t h e a p p r o a c h . I t s h o u l d be k e p t i n m i n d t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g c o n t r o l s y s t e m - z o n i n g - does n o t i n v o l v e p u b l i c d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g on t h e same i s s u e s . A 7 79. P u b l i c O w n e r s h i p o f L a n d L a n d o w n e r s h i p by t h e s t a t e i s t h e most d i r e c t method o f e l i m i n a t i n g t h e c o n f l i c t -- b e t w e e n (a) t h e p r i v a t e i n t e r e s t , w h i c h n o r m a l l y a t t e m p t s t o p u t a g i v e n p i e c e o f l a n d t o t h e most r e m u n e r a t i v e use f o r w h i c h a m a r k e t can be f o u n d , and (b) t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t , w h i c h t r i e s t o e n s u r e t h e b e s t use o f a l l l a n d i r r e s p e c t i v e o f m o n e t a r y r e t u r n -- a c o n f l i c t t h e e f f e c t s o f w h i c h have a l r e a d y b een d i s c u s s e d . The s o c i a l c o s t s and d a n g e r s o f i m p r o p e r and s p e c u l a t i v e s u b d i v i s i o n have l e d some A m e r i c a n e x p e r t s t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e o n l y g u a r a n - t e e f o r e f f i c i e n t and e c o n o m i c a l u r b a n g r o w t h w o u l d be p u b l i c o w n e r s h i p o f p e r i p h e r a l a r e a s . ^ I n t h i s way, a t l e a s t , m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w o u l d have 1 t h e power n e c e s s a r y t o g u i d e t h e i r f u t u r e e x p a n s i o n a c c o r d i n g t o a " m a s t e r p l a n " w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o c o n t e n d w i t h t h e o f t e n c o n f l i c t i n g i n - t e r e s t s o f t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r . R e c e n t l y , t h e r e has been a somewhat renewed i n t e - r e s t i n t h e p u b l i c a c q u i s i t i o n and d i s p o s i t i o n o f l a n d , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e m a r k e t i n g o f l a n d on t h e p e r i p h e r y o f e x i s t i n g u r b a n a r e a s . I n N o r t h A m e r i c a t h e t e c h n i q u e con- s i d e r e d t h e most a c c e p t a b l e has been t e r m e d " l a n d b a n k i n g " -- i n v o l v i n g t he p u b l i c p u r c h a s e o f l a n d s e v e r a l y e a r s i n advance o f u r b a n i z a t i o n , and the s u b s e q u e n t s e l l i n g o r p r e f e r a b l y l e a s i n g t o t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r f o r d e v e l o p m e n t , s u b j e c t t o c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s . The p o s i t i o n o f t h e 1968 R e p o r t o f t h e T a s k on H o u s i n g and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t i s v e r y c l e a r i n t h i s r e s p e c t : " M u n i c i p a l i t i e s o r r e g i o n a l g o v e r n m e n t s , as a m a t t e r o f c o n t i n u i n g p o l i c y , s h o u l d a ' c q u i r e , s e r v i c e and s e l l a l l o r a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n o f t h e l a n d r e q u i r e d f o r u r b a n g r o w t h w i t h i n t h e i r boun- d a r i e s " . ^ The s o - c a l l e d " H e l l y e r R e p o r t " j u s t i f i e d i t s r e c o m m e n d a t i o n by c i t i n g two i m p o r t a n t b e n e f i t s w h i c h c o u l d be a c h i e v e d w i t h s u c h a s y s t e m -- (1) c o s t e f f i - c i e n c y and (2) p l a n n i n g e f f e c t i v e n e s s . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e f o r m e r b e n e f i t , t h e R e p o r t n o t e d s e v e r a l t y p e s o f s a v i n g s w h i c h c o u l d be r e a l i z e d . I n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , t h e c o s t o f raw l a n d c o u l d e f f e c t i v e l y be r e d u c e d i f t h e pub- l i c s e c t o r a c t e d as a n o n p r o f i t b r o k e r by s e l l i n g o r l e a s i n g l a n d a t a p r i c e w h i c h r e f l e c t e d o n l y t h e a c t u a l c o s t s o f a c q u i r i n g and h o l d i n g t h e l a n d , t h u s e l i m i n a t i n g the s p e c u l a t i v e e l e m e n t w h i c h p r i v a t e e n t r e p r e n e u r s h i p w o u l d l i k e l y have added. S e c o n d l y , p u b l i c o w n e r s h i p c o u l d r e s u l t i n s u b s t a n t i a l e c o n o m i e s o f s c a l e i f l a n d were a s - s e m b l e d , s e r v i c e d and d e v e l o p e d i n l a r g e t r a c t s . A t p r e s e n t , a l a r g e p r o p e r t y w i t h good d e v e l o p m e n t p o t e n t i a l b u t w h i c h i s a r t i f i c i a l l y f r a g m e n t e d by o w n e r s h i p c r e a t e s numerous p r o b l e m s : The owner o f one p i e c e may be a n x i o u s t o p r o c e e d w i t h d e v e l o p m e n t - o n l y t o f i n d t h a t t h e n e i g h b o u r i n g p r o p e r t y , o f t e n t h e one t h r o u g h w h i c h t r u n k s e r v i c e s must p a s s , i s i n t h e hands o f a s p e c u l a t o r h o l d i n g o u t f o r e ven l a r g e r p r o f i t s o r i s c a u g h t up i n t h e l e g a l h a g g l i n g o f a c o n t e s t e d e s t a t e . The r e s u l t i s c o n f u s i o n , e v e r more r e g u l a t i o n and r e s t r i c t i o n , and e v e r - r i s i n g c o s t . , . 00 The Task F o r c e s u g g e s t e d t h a t n o t o n l y c o u l d s u b s t a n t i a l s a v i n g be r e a l i z e d i n t h e s e r v i c i n g o f l a r g e p a r c e l s b u t a l s o t h e d e v e l o p e r ' s r i s k an d c o s t s w o u l d be r e d u c e d due t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f d e l a y a r i s i n g f r o m s p e c u l a t i v e h o l d o u t s b e i n g e l i m i n a t e d . T h i r d l y , t h e R e p o r t p r o p o s e d t h a t a p o l i c y r e q u i r i n g l o c a l g o v e r nments t o s e r v i c e t h e l a n d t h e y a s s e m b l e w o u l d have an a d d i t i o n a l s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on l a n d c o s t s . A p p a r e n t l y t h e r e i s a t e n d e n c y among m u n i c i p a l i t i e s "... t o r e q u i r e e x t r e m e l y h i g h , i f n o t e x o r b i t a n t , s t a n d a r d s o f s e r v i c e . . . . t h u s s a v i n g t h e m s e l v e s r e p a i r and m a i n t e n a n c e c h a r g e s i n t h e y e a r s a h e a d , when someone e l s e , i . e . , t h e d e v e l o p e r and u l t i - m a t e l y t h e consumer, a r e p a y i n g t h e s e r v i c i n g s h o t . I t seems f a i r t o s p e c u l a t e t h a t t h e i r r e q u i r e m e n t s m i g h t n o t be as s e v e r e i f t h e i r l a n d and t h e i r money were i n v o l v e d " . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f u r b a n p l a n n i n g the case f o r m u n i c i p a l l a n d a s s e m b l y and s e r v i c i n g i s f u r - t h e r a d v a n c e d by t h e R e p o r t , w h i c h a c c e p t e d t h e c o n t e n t i o n o f one p r o j e c t d e v e l o p e r who s t a t e d : "'There i s no use d r e a m i n g a b o u t p l a n n i n g a c i t y u n l e s s y o u own t h e l a n d . ' " 6 i 82. W h i l e one c a n argue o v e r d e g r e e , t h e b a s i c l o g i c seems i n c o n t e s t i b l e . . . . How can a m u n i c i p a l i t y e n s u r e t h a t i t s p a t t e r n o f g r o w t h i s e f f i c i e n t and l o g i c a l when b a s i c d e c i s i o n s as t o t h e s e q u e n c e o f l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n and s e r v i c i n g r e s t w i t h t h e p r i v a t e d e v e l o p e r s , many o f whom l a c k t h e w i l l , t h e e x p e r t i s e , and t h e c a p i t a l t o t a k e an o v e r a l l v i e w o f u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t ? ^ I n o r d e r t o a s s i s t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s o r r e g i o n a l g o v e r n - ments i n t h e t a s k o f a s s e m b l i n g and s e r v i c i n g l a n d f o r f u t u r e u r b a n g r o w t h , t h e R e p o r t s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e f e d e r a l government p r o v i d e d i r e c t l o a n s on an e c o n o m i c r a t h e r t h a n a s u b s i d i z e d b a s i s . The r e d e m p t i o n o f some p r o f i t e l e m e n t , p r e s u m a b l y t o o f f s e t t h e i n t e r e s t on f e d e r a l l o a n s o r e v e n t o a i d i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f l a n d r e s e r v e d f o r p u b l i c u s e s , i s n o t s p e c i f i c a l l y p r e c l u d e d -- b u t t h e o v e r a l l aim "... must be t o r e d u c e t h e c o s t o f s e r v i c e d l a n d t o t h e u l t i m a t e c o n s u m e r " F i n a l l y , i n t h e c a s e o f i n d u s t r i a l , c o m m e r c i a l q r m u l t i p l e - u n i t d e v e l o p m e n t s , t h e Ta s k F o r c e s u g g e s t e d t h e l e a s i n g o f p u b l i c l y - a c q u i r e d l a n d as o p p o s e d t o s e l l i n g . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g bene- f i t s w h i c h c o u l d be r e a l i z e d , "... s u c h a s y s t e m w o u l d h e l p e n s u r e t h a t some o f t h e s o c i a l l y - c r e a t e d i n c r e m e n t i n l a n d v a l u e s a c c r u e d t o t h e community a t l a r g e t h r o u g h 71 the terms o f l e a s e s " . I t w o u l d be a p p r o p r i a t e a t thi-s s t a g e t o b r i e f l y examine some i n s t a n c e s where p u b l i c o w n e r s h i p o f l a n d i n 8 u r b a n a r e a s has been p a r t i c u l a r l y e f f e c t i v e . I n many E u r o p e a n c e n t r e s i t has been an a c c e p t e d s y s t e m f o r y e a r s S i n c e 1904 -- w e l l b e f o r e t h e r i s e o f t h e p r e s e n t S o c i a l D e m o c r a t i c government i n Sweden -- t h e c i t y o f S t o c k h o l m has m a i n t a i n e d a p o l i c y o f a c q u i r i n g as much l a n d as p o s - 7 ? s i b l e when i t comes on t h e m a r k e t . The c i t y owns o v e r 60,000 a c r e s , o n e - s i x t h o f w h i c h l i e s w i t h i n t h e c i t y l i - m i t s . I n f a c t , m u n i c i p a l l y - o w n e d l a n d i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e t o t a l a r e a o f t h e c i t y i t s e l f , most o f i t b e i n g l e a s e * t o p r i v a t e d e v e l o p e r s f o r p e r i o d s o f 50 t o 75 y e a r s . T h i : h a s b e e n i n s t r u m e n t a l i n t h e s u c c e s s f u l e x e c u t i o n o f S t o c k h o l m ' s m a s t e r p l a n , t h e end r e s u l t b e i n g t h e f a c t t h a t i t i s commonly c o n s i d e r e d one o f t h e most l i v e a b l e , w e l l - p l a n n e d c i t i e s i n t h e W e s t e r n W o r l d . I n E n g l a n d , t h e c i t y o f C o v e n t r y owns a b o u t one- t h i r d o f i t s a r e a , m a i n l y on t h e p e r i p h e r y . I n c o n t r a s t t o many c o n t i n e n t a l E u r o p e a n c i t i e s , C o v e n t r y does n o t l e a s e i t s m u n i c i p a l l y - o w n e d f r i n g e l a n d s , b u t e i t h e r de- v e l o p s them d i r e c t l y f o r p u b l i c b e n e f i t -- i n t h e f o r m o f m u n i c i p a l h o u s i n g , s c h o o l s , p l a y i n g f i e l d s and p a r k s -- o r d e l i b e r a t e l y r e t a i n s them i n a g r i c u l t u r a l use i n o r d e r t o p r e s e r v e l a n d from f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t as w e l l as m ain- t a i n a g r e e n b e l t . A c c o r d i n g t o B r y a n t : The c i t y o f C o v e n t r y d e r i v e s enormous b e n e f i t f r o m t h i s m u n i c i p a l e s t a t e . Much o f i t was p u r c h a s e d many y e a r s ago, so 84 t h a t i t s c o s t t o t h e c i t y was a f r a c t i o n o f i t s a c t u a l p r e s e n t v a l u e . I f t h e c i t y c o n t i n u e s t o grow a t t h e p r e s e n t r a t e , and a r a d i c a l r e v i s i o n o f t h e g r e e n b e l t becomes n e c e s s a r y , t h e n t h e c i t y a l r e a d y p o s s e s s e s c o n s i d e r a b l e r e s e r v e s o f l a n d , a t p r e s e n t f a r m e d , w h i c h c a n be made a v a i l a b l e a t l o w c o s t . B y c o m p a r i s o n t o E u r o p e a n s t a n d a r d s , t h e g e n e r a l a t t i t u d e t o l a n d o w n e r s h i p i n N o r t h A m e r i c a i s "... much l e s s s o p h i s t i c a t e d and mat u r e -- i f m a t u r i t y i n a demo- c r a c y i s . t o be j u d g e d by t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h p u b l i c good i s h e l d t o o v e r r i d e p r i v a t e p r o f i t s e e k i n g " . ' 7 ^ Some t i m e ago, The Y a l e Law J o u r n a l p r e d i c t e d t h a t t h e p u b l i c a s s e m b l y o f " l a r g e , c o n t i g u o u s a r e a s o f l a n d " w o u l d be p a r t i c u l a r l y d i f f i c u l t i n a c o u n t r y l i k e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s "... where r e a l e s t a t e i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y i n many s m a l l o w n e r s h i p s and where a l i n g e r i n g ' l a i s s e z - f a i r e ' p h i l o - s o p h y r e s i s t s any m o d i f i c a t i o n o f an i n d i v i d u a l owner's 7 5 p r o p e r t y r i g h t s " . R e c e n t l y , h o w e v e r , i n b o t h Canada and th e U n i t e d S t a t e s , t h e r e i s a n o t i c e a b l e t r e n d t o w a r d s pub l i e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t , a l o n g t h e l i n e s o f t h e E u r o p e a n e x p e r i e n c e . An e x c e l l e n t example i s t h e r a p i d l y g r o w i n g c i t y o f R o c k v i l l e , M a r y l a n d , n o t f a r f r o m the new town o f C o l u m b i a . I n an a r t i c l e e n t i t l e d "Land S p e c u l a t i o n i n t h e P u b l i c I n t e r e s t " , J o r d a n has e x p l a i n e d how the c i t y -- u s i n g t e c h n i q u e s n o r m a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p r i v a t e i n v e s t o r s -- a c q u i r e d and d i s p o s e d o f a l a r g e 85 t r a c t o f f r i n g e l a n d , t h e p r o f i t s f r o m w h i c h a r e h e l p e d 7 f\ t o f i n a n c e n e c e s s a r y m u n i c i p a l s e r v i c e s . The c o n c e p t o f " p u b l i c s e c t o r c a p i t a l i s m " i s c e r - t a i n l y n o t unknown i n Canada, c o n s i d e r i n g t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f s e v e r a l c i t i e s -- i n p a r t i c u l a r , Red D e e r , S a s k a t o o n , and P r i n c e G e o r g e . C i t y - o w n e d l a n d on t h e o u t s k i r t s o f Red Deer i s s o l d o u t r i g h t t o d e v e l o p e r s , b u t s t r i c t l y i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h an o v e r a l l p l a n w h i c h r e g u l a t e s t h e tempo o f d e v e l o p m e n t and c o o r d i n a t e s t h e a r r a n g e m e n t o f p u b l i c s e r v i c e s . A c c o r d i n g t o one o b s e r v e r , "... t h i s p r o c e d u r e i s e m i n e n t l y s a t i s f a c t o r y f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f t h e h o u s e - b u i l d e r s , who c a n p l a n t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s i n t h e f u l l k n o w l e d g e t h a t s e r v i c e d l a n d w i l l be a v a i l a b l e a t r e a s o n - 7 7' a b l e c o s t , as and when r e q u i r e d " - . S i m i l a r l y i n S a s k a - t o o n , m u n i c i p a l l a n d o w n e r s h i p -- w h i c h o r i g i n a l l y r e s u l t e f r o m numerous t a x payment d e f a u l t s .on l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f l a n d d u r i n g t h e d e p r e s s i o n y e a r s -- has e n s u r e d o r d e r l y u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t . The H e l l y e r R e p o r t was n o t i c e a b l y i m p r e s s e d by t h e f a c t t h a t l a n d c o s t s i n S a s k a t o o n have been " h e l d i n c h e c k " , d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e c i t y ' s p o p u l a t i o n h a d more t h a n d o u b l e d o v e r t h e f i v e p r e v i o u s 7 8 y e a r s . F u r t h e r m o r e , s i n c e r e c e i v i n g the o r i g i n a l de- p r e s s i o n w i n d f a l l , "... S a s k a t o o n has c o n t i n u e d t o a c q u i r e l a n d , s u f f i c i e n t l y ahead o f d e v e l o p m e n t t o keep p r i c e s down, t o t h e p o i n t where i t has been a b l e t o accommodate 86. c u r r e n t u r b a n e x p a n s i o n and s t i l l b u i l d up an i n v e n t o r y o f some 5,000 a c r e s w h i c h s h o u l d meet d e v e l o p m e n t needs 79 f o r t h e n e x t t w e n t y y e a r s " . B e g i n n i n g w i t h a l a n d a s s e m b l y scheme f o r C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g i n 1956, t h e c i t y o f P r i n c e George 8 has s i n c e m a i n t a i n e d a p o l i c y o f p u b l i c l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n . The " Land G r a n t T r u s t F u n d " was e s t a b l i s h e d , and f o r s e v e - r a l y e a r s t h e c i t y has e x e r c i s e d i t s o p t i o n u n d e r a c o n - t r a c t w i t h t h e P r o v i n c i a l Government t o p u r c h a s e Crown L a n d on t h e u r b a n f r i n g e a t $2,000 p e r a c r e . A l t h o u g h t h e b a s i c c o n t r a c t s t i l l e x i s t s , t h e p u r c h a s e p r i c e o f f u t u r e l a n d i s r e n e g o t i a b l e by b o t h p a r t i e s . R e c e n t l y , by t a k i n g a d v a n t a g e o f l i t t l e - k n o w n s e c t i o n o f t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g - A c t , P r i n c e George has embarked on a p r o g r a m t o a c q u i r e 220 a c r e s o f p r i v a t e l y h e l d l a n d f o r l a n d b a n k i n g p u r p o s e s . As the c i t y expands a t the r a t e o f 40 t o 50 a c r e s a n n u a l l y , t h i s new t r a c t o f l a n d w i l l be a r e s e r v e f o r f i v e y e a r s . M u n i c i p a l l y - h e l d l a n d p r e s e n t l y a c c o u n t s f o r b e t ween 85 and 90 p e r c e n t o f the t o t a l l a n d made a v a i l a b l e f o r d e v e l o p m e n t . 87. REFERENCES 1. R. W. G. B r y a n t , "Land S p e c u l a t i o n : I t s E f f e c t s and C o n t r o l " , P l a n , V o l . 5, No. 3, F e b r u a r y 1965, p. 110. 2. Mary Rawson, "The P u b l i c I n t e r e s t i n L a n d " , P a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t t h e T w e l f t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r - ence on L a n d - V a l u e T a x a t i o n and F r e e T r a d e , C a s w e l l Bay, W a l e s , September 1968, p. 1. What f o l l o w s h e r e f o r t h e n e x t few p a r a g r a p h s r e f l e c t s i n l a r g e p a r t t h e s e n t i m e n t s ex- p r e s s e d by M i s s Rawson i n t h e e a r l y p a r t o f h e r p a p e r . 3. l o c . c i t . 4. l o c . c i t . 5. i b i d . , p. 2. M i s s Rawson c i t e s t h e f o l l o w i n g two c o u n t r i e s where t h e l a n d s y s t e m i s c l o s e t o t h a t d e s c r i b e d : V e n e z u e l a ( w i t h 3 p e r c e n t o f l a n d o w n e r s owning 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e l a n d ) , and C h i l e (2 p e r c e n t o wning 52 p e r c e n t ) . 6. P h i l i p M. Rawp, " P u b l i c Land-Use C o n t r o l s i n S e l e c t e d E u r o p e a n C o u n t r i e s " , L a n d Use C o n t r o l s , N o r t h C e n t r a l L a n d T e n u r e R e s e a r c h S e m i n a r , C h i c a g o , 1963, p. 33. 7. Rawson, op. c i t . , p. 3. 8. J o h n E. C r i b b e t , " P r i v a t e P r o p e r t y and t h e P u b l i c I n t e r e s t - C o n f l i c t ? " , The P r i v a t e P r o p e r t y and P u b l i c I n t e r e s t C o n f l i c t , C l y d e W. F o r r e s t , e d . , U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s , 1969, p. 3. He s t a t e s f u r t h e r t h a t "The b a s i c f a i l u r e s o f p l a n n i n g a r e most d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o o u r c o n- c e p t o f p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y and t o our u n w i l l i n g - n e s s t o f a c e s q u a r e l y t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f o u r p r o p e r t y s y s t e m (p. 1 ) . " 88. 9. P a u l A. S a m u e l s o n and A n t h o n y S c o t t , E c o n o m i c s : An I n t r o d u c t o r y A n a l y s i s , M c G r a w - H i l l , T o r o n t o , 1966, p. 160. 10. R. W. G. B r y a n t , " L a n d O w n e r s h i p and C i t y D e v e l o p m e n t " , P l a n , V o l . 4, No. 1, J u n e 1963, p. 43. 11. i b i d . , p. 44. 12. s e e a l s o , B r y a n t ( 1 9 6 3 ) , p. 43. 13. J e s s e D u k e m i n i e r , J r . , " F o r e w a r d : The Coming S e a r c h f o r Q u a l i t y " , UCLA Law R e v i e w , V o l . 12, No. 3, M a r c h 1965, p. 714. 14. B r y a n t ( 1 9 6 5 ) , op. c i t . , p. 110. 15. D u k e m i n i e r , op. c i t . , p. 715. S o c i e t y ' s i n t e r e s t i n t h e o p t i m a l a l l o c a t i o n a n d / o r d e v e l o p m e n t o f l a n d r e s o u r c e s i s n e c e s s a r i l y much g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t o f i n d i v i d u a l s . I n d i v i d u a l s a r e g e n e r a l l y assumed t o o p e r a t e u n d e r h i g h t i m e p r e f e r e n c e r a t e s and s h o r t p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s . S o c i e t y , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , t e n d s t o use l o n g e r p l a n n i n g p e r i o d s and l o w e r d i s - c o u n t r a t e s n o t o n l y b e c a u s e o f i t s c o n c e r n f o r f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n s b u t a l s o b e c a u s e o f i t s a b i l i t y t o b o r r o w money a t l o w i n t e r e s t r a t e s . 16. J o s e p h M. H e i k o f f , " S o c i a l D e t e r m i n a n t s and t h e P u b l i c I n t e r e s t " , The P r i v a t e P r o p e r t y and P u b l i c I n t e r e s t C o n f l i c t . 17. f o r e x a m p l e , t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f l e v e l s o f unemployment i s a c c e p t e d as a c o n c e r n o f s o c i a l and e c o n o m i c p o l - i c y . 18. Coleman Woodbury, "Some S u g g e s t e d Changes i n t h e C o n t r o l o f U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t " , J o u r n a l o f Land and P u b l i c U t i l i t y E c o n o m i c s , A u g u s t 1929, p. 249, ( c i t e d b y D a v i d W. S l a t e r , "The P o l i t i c a l Economy o f U r b a n Changes i n Canada", Queen's Q u a r t e r l y , V o l . 67, No. 4, W i n t e r 1961, p. 3) . 19. S l a t e r , op. c i t . , p. 8. 20. R i c h a r d U. R a t c l i f f , R e a l E s t a t e A n a l y s i s , M c G r a w - H i l l , T o r o n t o , 1961, p. 243. 89. 21. R i c h a r d U. R a t c l i f f , U r b a n Land E c o n o m i c s , M c G r a w - H i l l , T o r o n t o , 1949, p. 301. 22. i b i d . , p. 297. 23. l o c . c i t . 24. S l a t e r , op. c i t . , p. 8. 25. H. W. Hannah and N. G. P. K r a u s z , "The R o l e o f Law i n t h e D e velopment o f Land R e s o u r c e s " , Modern L a n d P o l i c y , U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s P r e s s , U r b a n a , 1960, p. 325. 26. George S. Wehrwein, "The R u r a l - U r b a n F r i n g e " , R e a d i n g s i n U r b a n G e o g r a p h y , Mayer and Kohn, e d s . , p. 533. 27. I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t p u b l i c i n t e r v e n t i o n i n t h e u r b a n l a n d m a r k e t o f t e n i n h e r e n t l y p r o d u c e s e x t e r - n a l i t i e s t h a t c a n m a t e r i a l l y a f f e c t l a n d v a l u e s . The c o n c e p t s o f " c o m p e n s a t i o n " and " b e t t e r m e n t " a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h b o t h t h e p r a c t i c a b i l i t y and d e s i r a b i l i t y o f c o m p e n s a t i n g t h o s e l a n d o w n e r s made worse o f f , and t o l e v y some c h a r g e a g a i n s t t h o s e made b e t t e r o f f , as a r e s u l t o f p u b l i c i n t e r v e n t i o n ' s e x t e r n a l i t i e s . See a r t i c l e s b y T u r v e y and Munby on t h e c o m p e n s a t i o n - b e t t e r m e n t p r o b l e m i n The E c o n o m i c J o u r n a l J u n e 1953, M a r c h - 1954, and June 1954; a l s o c f . The " U t h w a t t R e p o r t " , B r i t i s h P a r l i a m e n t r y P a p e r s , Cmd. No. 6386, V o l . 4, 1941-42. 28. R a l p h T u r v e y , "What i s t h e Case f o r P l a n n i n g ? " , J o u r n a l o f t h e Town P l a n n i n g I n s t i t u t e , S e p t e m b e r / O c t o b e r 1955, p. 270. 29. J a c k H i r s c h l e i f e r , e t a l . , Water S u p p l y : E c o n o m i c s , T e c h n o l o g y and P o l i c y , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o , 1960, p. 79. 30. F r e d e r i c k H. B a i r , P l a n n i n g C i t i e s , A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , C h i c a g o , 1970, p. 255. 31. M i l t o n F r i e d m a n , "The R o l e o f Government i n a F r e e S o c i e t y " , P r i v a t e Wants and P u b l i c Needs, Edmund S. P h e l p s , ed. p. 107. 90. 32. R i c h a r d M. Y e a r w o o d , " L a n d S p e c u l a t i o n and D e v e l o p m e n t : A m e r i c a n A t t i t u d e s " , P l a n , V o l . 9, No. 1, M a r c h 1968, p. 20. 33. i b i d . , p.- 21. 34. J o h n D e l a f o n s , Land-Use C o n t r o l s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , The M.I.T. P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e , 1969, p. 20. 35. J o h n F. R o w l s o n , " Z o n i n g v s . A l t e r n a t e V a l u e " , The A p p r a i s a l J o u r n a l , V o l . 3, No. 4, O c t o b e r 1963, p. 514. 36. E. A. L e v i n , " Z o n i n g i n Canada", Community P l a n n i n g R e v i e w , V o l . 7, No. 2, J u n e 1957, p. 86. 37. New J e r s e y S u p e r i o r C o u r t , " B o r o u g h o f C r e s s k i l l v s . B o r o u g h o f Demont ( 1 9 5 3 ) " , c i t e d by D e l a f o n s , op. c i t . , p. 33. 38. W i l l i a m I . Goodman, P r i n c i p l e s and P r a c t i c e s o f U r b a n P l a n n i n g , The M u n i c i p a l Management S e r i e s , I n t e r - n a t i o n a l C i t y M a n a g e r s ' A s s o c i a t i o n , W a s h i n g t o n , D.C., 1968, pp. 403-404. 39. B a i r , op. c i t . , p. 259. 40. Hugh D. N o u r s e , R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c s , M c G r a w - H i l l , New - Y o r k , 1968, p. 236. 41. D i c k N e t z e r , E c o n o m i c s and U r b a n P r o b l e m s , B a s i c B o o k s , I n c . , New Y o r k , 1970, p. 126. 42. R a t c l i f f ( 1 9 4 9 ) , op. c i t . , p. 415. 43. Y e a r w o o d , op. c i t . , p. 21. 44. W i l l i a m I . Goodman and Jerome L. Kaufman, C i t y P l a n n i n g i n t h e S i x t i e s : A R e s t a t e m e n t o f P r i n c i p l e s and T e c h n i q u e s , B u r e a u o f Community P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s , U r b a n a , 1965, p. 52. 45. l o c . c i t . 46. i b i d . , p. 55. 47. D e l a f o n s , op. c i t . , p. 84 9 1 . 48. s e e , f o r e x a m p l e , t h e a r t i c l e s a l r e a d y c i t e d by H e n e b e r r y , Rawson and N e t z e r . 49. Rawson, op. c i t . , p. 3. 50. i b i d . , p. 4. 51. * f o r e x a m p l e , when raw l a n d i s t a x e d a t t h e g o i n g r a t e f o r s u b d i v i s i o n l a n d , i t becomes i m p o s s i b l e f o r t h e owner t o keep i t u n d e v e l o p e d ; t h u s d e v e l o p m e n t w i l l o c c u r , i n s p i t e o f p o s s i b l y a g r e a t e r need f o r open s p a c e . 52. C r i b b e t , op. c i t • , p. 3. 53. c i t e d by B r y a n t (1965) op. c i t . , p. 116. A n o t h e r example o f b l a m i n g l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n f o r e v e r y t h i n g wrong w i t h t h e w o r l d . . . . 54. f o r a more d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e s i t e t a x as a c u r b on s p e c u l a t i o n , s e e : R a l p h T u r v e y , The E c o n o m i c s o f R e a l P r o p e r t y , George A l l e n and U nwin, L o n d o n , 1957, C h a p t e r V I I , p a r t i c u l a r l y pp. 87.-92. 55. N i g e l R i c h a r d s o n , "Can We S t o p t h e S p r e a d ? " , Community P l a n n i n g R e v i e w , V o l . I I , No. 2, J u n e 1961, p. 10. 56. Rawson, op. c i t . , p. 4. 57. i b i d . , p. 5. The R o y a l A r c h i t e c t u r a l I n s t i t u e o f Canada i s a l s o a p r o p o n e n t o f s i t e v a l u e t a x a - t i o n . The Committee o f E n q u i r y i n t o t h e D e s i g n o f R e s i d e n t i a l E n v i r o n m e n t (RAIC 1960) s t a t e d : The P r o v i n c e s , a t no g r e a t e x p e n s e , ca n a s c e r t a i n f o r C a n a d i a n c o n d i t i o n s t h e b e n e f i t s o r d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f a g e n e r a l change f r o m t a x e s on l a n d and i m p r o v e - ments t o a s y s t e m o f r e a l p r o p e r t y t a x on s i t e v a l u e o n l y . The d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e s e a s s e s s m e n t methods c l e a r l y has g r e a t i m p o r t f o r t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e huge r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s we s h a l l have t o c r e - a t e and m a i n t a i n i n t h e y e a r s b e f o r e us ( p a r a . 1 8 5 ) . 58. c i t e d by Rawson, op. c i t • , p. .4. 92. 59. Roy Wenzlick, "Rx to Cost Land Prices: Assess Vacant Land by the Rules", House and Home, Vol. 20, No. 2, August 1961, p. 78. He states further that "...assessing farmland on the basis of use rather than market value does not help the farmer, (because) ...a large part of this land is bought by speculators and then rented to the farmers as a tax dodge (p. 78)." 60. Bryant (1965) op. c i t . , p. 116. 61. Netzer, op. c i t . , pp. 127-28. 62. i b i d . , p. 128. 63. loc. c i t . 64. see R a t c l i f f (1949) op. c i t . , p. 418. 65. Report of the Federal Task Force on Housing and Urban Development, (The "Hellyer Report"), Ottawa, Queen's Printer, January 1969, pp. 41-43. The Minister of Finance has hinted of a scheme that would have CMHC work with provincial au- thori t i e s to buy up large areas of land for resale to developers or individual home owners at no p r o f i t , (see The Financial Post, May 4, 1968, pp. 1-2). More recently, the B.C. Provincial Government has been urged to launch a land assembly scheme of i t s own in urban areas "...to drive down prices inflated by speculators and remove a barrier to the acquisition of reasonably-priced homes..." (see The Province, February 10, 1970, p. 7). 66. Task Force Report, op. c i t . , p. 41. 67. loc. c i t . 68. loc. c i t . 69. loc. c i t . Similar opinions are held by James Rouse, the devloper of Columbia, Maryland. (see Fortune, July, 1969, p. 127). 93. 70. i b i d . , p. 42. 71. i b i d . , p. 43. 72. The e n s u i n g d e t a i l s on S t o c k h o l m and C o v e n t r y a r e f r o m B r y a n t (1965) , op. c i t . , pp. 117-120. 73. B r y a n t (1965) , p. 119. 74. l o c . c i t . 75. The Y a l e Law J o u r n a l , V o l . 52, 1943, p. 635. 76. F r e d J o r d a n , " L a n d S p e c u l a t i o n i n t h e P u b l i c I n t e r e s t " , C i t y , V o l . 5, No. 1, J a n u a r y / F e b r u a r y 1971, pp. 85- 86. 77. B r y a n t (1965) op. c i t . , p. 120. 78. Task F o r c e R e p o r t , op. c i t . , p. 40. 79. l o c . c i t . See a l s o S. B u c k w o l d , "Land P o l i c y i n S a s k a t o o n " , H a b i t a t , V o l . 5, No. 1, J a n u a r y / F e b - r u a r y 1962, pp. 149-152. 80. I n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g P r i n c e George stems f r o m r e s e a r c h c u r r e n t l y i n p r o g r e s s by C r a i g L a r o n g e , F a c u l t y o f Commerce and B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1971. CHAPTER I V THE STUDY AREA INTRODUCTION The S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a i s l o c a t e d a t t h e s o u t h e a s t e r n t i p o f V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d . V i c t o r i a , t h e c a p i t a l c i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a l i e s a t t h e s o u t h e r n end o f t h e P e n i n s u l a . The s t u d y a r e a c h o s e n f o r t h i s r e p o r t was t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , a community o f some 70,000 p e r s o n s , i m m e d i a t e l y n o r t h o f t h e c i t y o f V i c t o r i a . T h i s c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e s t h e h i s t o r y and g r o w t h o f t h e V i c t o r i a R e g i o n i n g e n e r a l and o f S a a n i c h i n p a r t i c u l a r . REGIONAL SETTING Topography The S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a i s g e n e r a l l y a l o w - l y i n g a r e a . Wi-th t h e e x c e p t i o n o f s e v e r a l r o c k o u t c r o p p i n g s , t h i s l o w - l a n d a r e a c o m p r i s e s a l l l a n d b e l o w t h e 500 f o o t c o n t o u r . I t has an a r e a o f a b o u t 90 s q u a r e m i l e s and i s w e l l - d e f i n e d as a p e n i n s u l a , b e i n g bounded by w a t e r on t h r e e s i d e s and by a r o c k y , m o u n t a i n o u s f o r e s t e d a r e a on t h e w e s t e r n s i d e . A p a r t f r o m t h i s w e s t e r n b o u n d a r y , t h e main p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h e P e n i n s u l a i s t h a t o f a c o a s t a l p l a i n b r o k e n by a number o f p r o m i n e n t f e a t u r e s - - h i l l s , v a l l e y s , r i d g e s , r o c k y a r e a s a t h i g h e r e l e v a t i o n s , l a k e s and l o w - l y i n g a r e a s sub- j e c t t o f l o o d i n g . " ' - The t o p o g r a p h y of^ t h e S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e IV .  F i g u r e IV 97 TOPOGRAPHIC MAP 98. G e o l o g y F i g u r e V c l a s s i f i e s t h e s o i l s i n t h e V i c t o r i a R e g i o n a c c o r d i n g t o ' t h e i r a g r i c u l t u r a l s u i t a b i l i t y . T h i s has b e e n b a s e d on f a c t o r s w h i c h l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e l a n d c a p a b i l i t y - - t e x t u r e , d e p t h , m o i s t u r e - h o l d i n g c a p a c i t y , n a t u r a l f e r t i l i - t y , d r a i n a g e , p e r m e a b i l i t y , t o p o g r a p h y and s t o n i n e s s o f t h e s o i l . The r u r a l a r e a s o f t h e r e g i o n s t i l l d epend c h i e f l y on a g r i c u l t u r e . F a v o u r a b l e c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s , c o m b i n e d w i t h good t e r r a i n and s o i l s f a c i l i t a t e t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c - t i o n . Due t o t h e p e n i n s u l a r c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f t h e l a n d a l o n g w i t h v a r i a t i o n s i n t o p o g r a p h y and s o i l s , t h e r e i s a v e r y n o t i c e a b l e change i n t h e c h a r a c t e r o f f a r m i n g as d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e c i t y o f V i c t o r i a i n c r e a s e s . The u s u a l p a t t e r n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t - - i n t e n s i v e use o f s m a l l p l o t s n e a r t h e u r b a n a r e a , t o more e x t e n s i v e ' u se o f l a r g e r t r a c t s f u r - t h e r f r o m t h e C i t y . A g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n v a r i e s f r o m s p e c i a l i z e d h o r t i c u l t u r a l c r o p s - - c u t f l o w e r s , b u l b s , h o t - h ouse v e g e t a b l e s , s t r a w b e r r i e s , l o g a n b e r r i e s and o t h e r s m a l l f r u i t s - - t o d a i r y i n g , m a r k e t g a r d e n i n g and p o u l t r y . 3 H i s t o r i c a l D evelopment The c i t y o f V i c t o r i a was o r i g i n a l l y e s t a b l i s h e d i n 1843 as a new t r a d i n g p o s t f o r t h e Hudson's Bay Company. The new s e t t l e m e n t e xpanded s l o w l y d u r i n g i t s f o r m a t i v e F i g u r e V GEOLOGICAL MAP ( S o i l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n s ) AGRICULTURAL S o u r c e : C.N. F o r e w a r d , Land Use o f t h e V i c t o r i a A r e a , G e o g r a p h i c a l Paper No. 4 3 , page 6, GMK 100. y e a r s . However, i n e a r l y 1858, news o f the g o l d d i s c o v e r i e s i n t h e F r a s e r and Thompson R i v e r s - - a n d l a t e r t h e 1862 C a r i b o u g o l d r u s h - - b r o u g h t t h o u s a n d s o f m i n e r s and t h e i r s u p p l i e r s i n t o t h e a r e a . D u r i n g t h e s e y e a r s t h e s e t t l e m e n t g r e a t l y e x p a n d e d , and i n 1862, V i c t o r i a was i n c o r p o r a t e d as a c i t y . A f t e r t h e g o l d r u s h e s a p e r i o d o f r e c e s s i o n s e t i n , g i v i n g i m p e t u s t o t h o u g h t s o f p o l i t i c a l r e o r g a n i z a t i o n . U n i o n o f t h e c o l o n i e s o f V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d and t h e M a i n l a n d was f i n a l l y a g r e e d upon i n 1866, and, a f t e r much n e g o t i a - t i o n , V i c t o r i a was named t h e c a p i t a l o f t h e e n l a r g e d c o l o n y known as B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . I n 1871, when B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a j o i n e d C o n f e d e r a t i o n , V i c t o r i a r e t a i n e d i t s s t a t u s as t h e c a p i t a l c i t y . F o r a t i m e a f t e r C o n f e d e r a t i o n , V i c t o r i a grew r a p i d l y as t h e k e y a d m i n i s t r a t i v e , f i n a n c i a l , c o m m e r c i a l and i n d u s - t r i a l c e n t r e o f the most w e s t e r l y p r o v i n c e and r e t a i n e d i t s p r o v i n c i a l l e a d e r s h i p i n t r a d e and m a n u f a c t u r i n g u n t i l t h e 1 890's. I n f a c t , as l o n g as a p p r o a c h by s e a r e m a i n e d t h e m ain a c c e s s t o t h e p r o v i n c e , V i c t o r i a e n j o y e d a f a v o u r a b l e p o s i t i o n and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h was c o n s i d e r a b l e . The c i t y grew f r o m s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n 6,000 i n 1881 t o n e a r l y 17,000 i n 1 8 9 1 . 4 D u r i n g t h e l a t t e r p a r t o f t h e 1890's V a n c o u v e r began to t a k e o v e r V i c t o r i a ' s p o s i t i o n as the l e a d i n g p o r t and 101. c o m m e r c i a l c e n t r e o f t h e p r o v i n c e . By 1900 p r e - e m i n e n c e i n b o t h t r a d e and i n d u s t r y had s h i f t e d t o the m a i n l a n d and V i c t o r i a became more p r e o c c u p i e d w i t h government and t o u r i s m . N e v e r t h e l e s s , b e t ween 1891 and 1911, t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e C i t y n e a r l y d o u b l e d , r e a c h i n g a t o t a l o f a b o u t 32,000. A c - c o r d i n g t o F o r e w a r d , a l t h o u g h V i c t o r i a "... by t h i s t i m e a l r e a d y had a r e p u t a t i o n as a d e s i r a b l e r e t i r e m e n t s p o t , [ i t ] was n o t y e t o u t s t a n d i n g i n t h i s r e s p e c t . T h e r e was a l a r g e r e a l e s t a t e boom i n t h e y e a r s im- m e d i a t e l y p r i o r t o t h e F i r s t W o r l d War, and w i t h i t "... t h e b i g g e s t wave o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n i n ( V i c t o r i a ' s ) h i s - t o r y . I n r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s n e a r t h e c i t y , 60 x 120 f o o t l o t s were s e l l i n g f o r $5,000 i n 1912 compared t o o n l y $400 s i x y e a r s e a r l i e r . Downtown l a n d p r i c e s were e q u a l l y f a n - t a s t i c . On D o u g l a s S t r e e t , F i s g a r d t o H i l l s i d e , t h e l a n d s o l d a t $500 p e r f o o t . Downtown c o r n e r l o t s went f o r $15,000. S e n a t o r J . M a c D o n a l d ... s o l d 27 a c r e s i n James Bay f o r $1,000,000 and t h e B a l m o r a l H o t e l s o l d f o r $500 ,000 . y C o n s i d e r i n g t h a t a 1912 d o l l a r w o u l d be e q u a l t o $10 t o - 8 d a y , t h e s e l a n d p r i c e s were i n c r e d i b l y i n f l a t e d . I n f a c t , t h o s e who h e l d o n t o t h e i r l a n d i n v e s t m e n t s t h r o u g h t h e s u b s e q u e n t c o l l a p s e o f the m a r k e t , "... were a b l e o n l y i n t h e 1960's t o r e a l i z e t h e p r i c e s t h e y had p a i d 50 y e a r s q p r e v i o u s l y and t h o s e p r i c e s w i t h d o l l a r s h a l v e d i n v a l u e . " 102. Figure VI LAND ASSESSMENT VALUES IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SAANICH 1906 - 1970 I I 1 i 1 1 I I i I i i l 1 1906 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Y E A R *"The Great Land Boom" (1914 - $20,109,135) Source: Assessment Department,. M u n i c i p a l i t y of Saanich 103. A l t h o u g h the r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h d u r i n g the T w e n t i e s and T h i r t i e s was l o w e r t h a n a t any t i m e b e f o r e o r s i n c e , t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f r e s i d e n t s o v e r t h e age o f 65 i n c r e a s e d n o t i c e a b l y . " ^ The a c t i v i t y on t h e P a c i f i c as a r e s u l t o f t h e S e c o n d W o r l d War b o l s t e r e d V i c t o r i a ' s e c o n o - my and l o c a l i n d u s t r y r e c o v e r e d f r o m the d e p r e s s i o n y e a r s as a r e s u l t o f t h e demands b r e d by W a r t i m e n e c e s s i t y . F o l - l o w i n g t h e War, "... t h e f l o o d - t i d e o f d e v e l o p m e n t and im- m i g r a t i o n was r u n n i n g t o t h e West. The t i d e i s s t i l l r u n - n i l mug, A summary o f t h e R e g i o n ' s p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h s i n c e 1855 i s shown by F i g u r e V I I . As t h e p o p u l a t i o n f i g u r e s a r e p l o t t e d on a l o g a r i t h m i c s c a l e , t h e r e s u l t i n g c u r v e s a c c u - r a t e l y r e p r e s e n t r a t e s o f g r o w t h . From the g r a p h i t i s v i s u a l l y a p p a r e n t t h a t S a a n i c h i s the f a s t e s t g r o w i n g a r e a , and t h a t V i c t o r i a ' s g r o w t h i s i n c r e a s i n g a t a f a s t e r r a t e t h a n a t any t i m e s i n c e t h e 1 9 0 0 ' s . F i g u r e V I I I d e p i c t s p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s t o t h e y e a r 1981. By 1986 the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n o f M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a i s p r o j e c t e d t o be 275,000, o f w h i c h 130,000, o r 47.3 p e r c e n t w i l l l o c a t e i n S a a n i c h - i f p r e s e n t d e v e l o p m e n t t r e n d s a r e s u s t a i n e d . A s l o w e r r a t e o f g r o w t h i n t h e d e v e l o p e d a r e a s o f E s q u i m a l t , Oak Bay and V i c t o r i a C i t y c a n be a t t r i - 12 b u t e d t o two f a c t o r s : F i g u r e V I I RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH IN THE VICTORIA REGION 104 Persons 200,000 150,000 \- 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 VICTORIA REGION 100 Year 1855 JL J 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 S o u r c e : C.N. F o r e w a r d , Land Use o f t h e V i c t o r i a A r e a , B.C.., G e o g r a p h i c a l B r a n c h , D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y , M i n e s and R e s o u r c e s , O t t a w a , Queen's P r i n t e r , 1 969; p. 13. 105. F i g u r e V I I I POPULATION PROJECTIONS, METROPOLITAN VICTORIA, 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 8 1 1966 1971 1976 1981 Y E A R S o u r c e : P l a n n i n g Department, C i t y o f V i c t o r i a , Economic S u r v e y o f M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a , p. 6. 106. 1. Most o f t h e l a n d i n t h e s e a r e a s has a l r e a d y b een d e v e l o p e d , so t h a t an i n c r e a s e i n p o p u l a t i o n may o n l y be accommodated by r e d e v e l o p m e n t a t h i g h e r d e n s i t i e s . 2. F a m i l i e s w i t h c h i l d r e n have an o b v i o u s p r e f e r e n c e fo*r s u b u r b a n l i v i n g , and t h u s a r e n o r m a l l y o b l i g e d t o l o - c a t e d o u t s i d e t h e o l d e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . S p a t i a l D e velopment I n 1849, the Hudson's Bay Company was o f f i c i a l l y g i v e n p e r m i s s i o n t o c o l o n i z e a l l o f V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d , and t o a t t r a c t as c o l o n i s t s "men o f means, good c h a r a c t e r and h i g h 13 s o c i a l s t a n d i n g . " I n o r d e r t o o n l y a t t r a c t t h e s e " c o u n t r y s q u i r e s " , t h e p r i c e o f l a n d was s e t a t one pound s t e r l i n g p e r a c r e , w i t h a minimum r e q u i r e d p u r c h a s e o f 20 a c r e s . ^ D u r i n g t h e 1850's s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e a r e a e x p a n d e d s l o w l y b u t s t e a d i l y , d e s p i t e t h e d i s c o u r a g i n g l y h i g h p r i c e o f l a n d . I n 1859, a b o u t 20,000 a c r e s o f l a n d i n t h e v a r i o u s d i s t r i c t s b e t w een V i c t o r i a and the t i p o f the S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a were p u t up f o r s a l e a t one d o l l a r p e r a c r e , h a v i n g j u s t b een s u r v e y e d t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r . These p a r t i - c u l a r l a n d s a l e s marked t h e b e g i n n i n g o f a c o n s i d e r a b l e e x p a n s i o n o f the s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n i n t h e r e g i o n , and en- c o u r a g e d the g r o w t h o f f a r m i n g on the P e n i n s u l a . The new farms t h a t were e s t a b l i s h e d were owner-ope- r a t e d and much s m a l l e r t h a n t h e huge t r a c t s r u n by the 107 Hudson's Bay Company. The Company farm s were g r a d u a l l y e n g u l f e d by the e x p a n d i n g C i t y o f V i c t o r i a , and by 1866 a l l o f them had d i s a p p e a r e d o r h a d b e e n s u b d i v i d e d . ^ "As l o n g as a p p r o a c h by s e a r e m a i n e d t h e main a c c e s s t o t h e P r o v i n c e , V i c t o r i a e n j o y e d a f a v o u r a b l e p o s i t i o n and u r b a n g r o w t h was a c c o m p a n i e d b y a c o r r e s p o n d i n g a g r i - c u l t u r a l s e t t l e m e n t t h a t e f f e c t i v e l y o c c u p i e d t h e l i m i t s 17 p e r m i t t e d by l o c a l p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n s . " The f i n e n a t u r a l h a r b o u r w i t h t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r a c c o m m o d a t i n g t h e f a c i l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o c e a n - i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n was, a f t e r a l l , one o f the m a j o r r e a s o n s f o r s e l e c t i n g t h e s i t e . The h a r - b o u r p r o v i d e d good l o c a t i o n s f o r i n d u s t r i e s r e q u i r i n g w a t e r f r o n t a g e - - n o t a b l y l u m b e r i n g , f i s h p a c k i n g , and a s h i p b u i l - d i n g and r e p a i r i n g i n d u s t r y . Not o n l y was t h e p o r t an i m p o r t a n t f u n c t i o n i n t h e economic b a s e , b u t i t was a m a j o r e l e m e n t i n t h e p h y s i c a l p a t t e r n o f l a n d - u s e . As t h e p o r t a c t i v i t i e s w e r e , a t t h a t t i m e , v i t a l t o the economy, t h e g r o w i n g u r b a n a r e a , f o c u s e d i t s a t t e n t i o n on t h e h a r b o u r . I n 1885, the C.P.R. main l i n e t o B u r r a r d I n l e t was c o m p l e t e d , and by t h e l a t t e r p a r t o f the 1890's V a n c o u v e r began t o o v e r t a k e V i c t o r i a as t h e l e a d i n g c o m m e r c i a l c e n t r e o f the P r o v i n c e . However, the 1890's i n t h e V i c t o r i a a r e a "... marked the c u l m i n a t i o n o f t h e l a n d s e t t l e m e n t p e r i o d , most o f t h e a r a b l e l a n d h a v i n g been o c c u p i e d by t h i s t i m e . " 108. A g r i c u l t u r e c o n t i n u e d t o be t h e p r i m e i n d u s t r y , and t h e r e g i o n ' s t o t a l a r e a o f c r o p l a n d r e a c h e d 11,000 a c r e s by 19 1891, compared w i t h 9,000 a c r e s a decade e a r l i e r . D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d t h e r e was c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n s t r u c - t i o n a c t i v i t y , i n c l u d i n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f e f f i c i e n t pub- l i c u t i l i t i e s s u c h as e l e c t r i c i t y , g a s , and tramways. " P r o p e r t y v a l u e s i n c r e a s e d a l o n g t h e t r a m l i n e s and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s e n c o u r a g e d r e s i d e n - t i a l b u i l d i n g i n o u t l y i n g a r e a s , o f t e n w e l l b e y o n d t h e c i t y l i m i t s . " 2 0 F o l l o w i n g t h e F i r s t W o r l d War t h e s t o r a g e and hand- l i n g f a c i l i t i e s o f t h e p o r t were g r e a t l y i m p r o v e d and ex- panded. However, d e s p i t e t h e o p e n i n g o f t h e Panama C a n a l i n 1914, the added dock f a c i l i t i e s , and a g e n e r a l e x p a n s i o n o f t r a d e w i t h t h e O r i e n t , t h e g r o w t h o f the s h i p p i n g t r a d e n e v e r r e a c h e d t h e p r o p o r t i o n s t h a t had been o p t i m i s t i c a l l y f o r e c a s t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e o r i g i n a l i m p o r t a n c e o f l o c a t i n g n e a r t h e h a r b o u r d i m i n i s h e d and the a t t e n t i o n o f t h e ex- p a n d i n g u r b a n a r e a began t o f o c u s e l s e w h e r e . F i g u r e IX n o t o n l y i l l u s t r a t e s t h e s e t t l e m e n t t r e n d away f r o m t h e h a r b o u r a r e a , b u t a l s o l e n d s s u p p o r t t o a b a s i c t h e o r y o f u r b a n g r o w t h t h a t was p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t i n t h o s e d a y s : "... community g r o w t h f l o w s i n t o a r e a s o f - 21 f e r i n g the l e a s t p h y s i c a l ... r e s i s t a n c e t o e x p a n s i o n . " F i g u r e I X SETTLEMENT PATTERNS IN THE REGION S o u r c e : C.N. F o r e w a r d , Land Use o f t h e V i c t o r i a A r e a . page 14. 1 1 0 The. e x p a n d i n g u r b a n a r e a f i r s t e n c r o a c h e d on g e n t l y - s l o p i n g f a r m l a n d i n t h e v i c i n i t y o f t h e c i t y . I t was n o t u n t i l t h i s C e n t u r y t h a t s e t t l e m e n t o c c u r e d i n p h y s i c a l l y r u g g e d a r e a s o r on s l o p i n g l a n d , w h e r e , f o r r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t a t l e a s t , t h e v i e w was o f t e n an i m p o r t a n t c o m p e n s a t i n g f a c t o r . As F o r e w a r d o b s e r v e s , B a r r e n r o c k o u t c r o p s l a r g e l y denuded o f s o i l f r e q u e n t l y a r e s i t e s o f many o u t - s t a n d i n g and e x p e n s i v e homes. I t i s i r o n i c t h a t t h e l e v e l and o f good s o i l w h i c h was c o n s i d e r e d most d e s i r a b l e i n e a r l i e r d ays and was o c c u p i e d f i r s t i s now l e s s v a l u a b l e t h a n t h e b a r r e n u p l a n d s . 2 2 A l m o s t a l l l a n d s u i t a b l e f o r a g r i c u l t u r e h a d b e e n o c - 23 c u p i e d b e f o r e t h e 1921 C e n s u s . The g e n e r a l t r e n d t o w a r d u r b a n i z a t i o n became more p r o n o u n c e d , and " A l t h o u g h f a r m l a n d was u s e d more i n t e n s i v e l y , a g r i c u l t u r e was by no means d e v e l o p i n g a t t h e same r a t e as p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . " ^ 4 I n f a c t by 1931, t h e d i s t i n c t i o n made i n t h e Census showed t h a t t h e f a r m p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e V i c t o r i a r e g i o n c o n s t i t u t e d o n l y s l i g h t l y more t h a n a t h i r d o f t h e t o t a l . T h i s t r e n d c o n t i n u e d , and b o t h t h e number o f f a r m o p e r a t o r s and the a c r e a g e o f o c c u p i e d l a n d d e c r e a s e d be- tween 1931 and 1 9 4 1 , b u t t h e r e was l i t t l e change i n a r e a s 2 5 o f i m p r o v e d l a n d , p a s t u r e , o r f i e l d c r o p s . S e t t l e m e n t o u t s i d e o f t h e c i t y l i m i t s c o n t i n u e d , u n t i l i n 1942 i t was e s - t i m a t e d t h a t t h e r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n e q u a l l e d t h e c i t y popu l a t i o n . 1 1 1 . F o l l o w i n g t he S e c o n d W o r l d War, s e t t l e m e n t i n t h e V i c t o r i a r e g i o n t e n d e d t o be more s c a t t e r e d , and u r b a n s p r a w l and i t s r e l a t e d p r o b l e m s , more p r o n o u n c e d . As shown by the 1951 C e n s u s , a l l d i s t r i c t s e x p e r i e n c e d c o n s i d e r a b l e i n c r e a s e s i n p o p u l a t i o n - - p a r t i c u l a r l y S a a n i c h and t h e un- o r g a n i z e d t e r r i t o r y . D u r i n g the f o l l o w i n g two decades t h e u r b a n e x p a n s i o n was r e f l e c t e d i n many changes i n l a n d - u s e • 26 p a t t e r n s : 1 . a p r o n o u n c e d e x t e n s i o n o f r e s i d e n t i a l l a n d u s e f o r s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s ; 2. i n c r e a s e d h a p h a z a r d s u b d i v i s i o n o f f a r m s i n s u b - u r b a n a r e a s , r e s u l t i n g i n a " p a t c h w o r k " o f r e s i d e n t i a l u s e s 3. an e v i d e n t t r e n d f o r a c e r t a i n segment o f t h e popu l a t i o n t o a p a r t m e n t l i v i n g , w i t h a number o f h i g h r i s e b l o c k s b e i n g c o n s t r u c t e d ; 4. t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f i n t e g r a t e d n e i g h b o u r h o o d shop- p i n g c e n t r e s , and one r e g i o n a l c e n t r e , i n t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a ; and 5. numerous new h o t e l s , m o t e l s , and r e s t a u r a n t s - - a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e g r o w i n g t o u r i s t i n d u s t r y . One o f t h e more n o t a b l e t r e n d s d u r i n g t h e l a s t two decades was i n t h e f i e l d o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . A i r p a s s e n g e r t r a n s p o r t r e a c h e d i t s peak i n t h e 1950's b u t s t e a d i l y de- c l i n e d i n t h e e a r l y 1960's due t o i n c r e a s i n g c o m p e t i t i o n f r o m the B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a F e r r y System. As F o r e w a r d has 112. o b s e r v e d , " T h i s f a s t f e r r y s e r v i c e f r o m Tsawwassen on t h e m a i n l a n d t o S w a r t z Bay a t t h e t i p o f S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a made n o r t h D o u g l a s S t r e e t , r a t h e r t h a n ... V i c t o r i a H a r b o u r , 27 th e f r o n t d o o r o f V i c t o r i a . " I n v i e w o f t h e f a c t t h a t p a s t e x p e r i e n c e i n t h e V i c t o r i a a r e a has d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t t h e s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f u r b a n a c t i v i t i e s i s s t r o n g l y depen- d e n t on a c c e s s i b i l i t y , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o b r i e f l y c o n s i d e r t h e e f f e c t s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n d e v e l o p m e n t s on t h e R e g i o n . " W i t h i n c i t i e s and r e g i o n s , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s c o n s t i t u t e i m p o r t a n t e l e m e n t s o f t h e l a n d - u s e and f u n c t i o n a l p a t t e r n , and t h e y s e r v e as n u c l e i a r o u n d w h i c h o t h e r f u n c - 2 8 t i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n s w i t h i n u r b a n a r e a s t a k e p l a c e . " I n most modern u r b a n a r e a s , and V i c t o r i a i s no e x c e p t i o n , t h e e x t e n t o f t h e h i n t e r l a n d - - a n d - c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e s i z e and c h a r a c t e r o f t h e u r b a n a r e a i t s e l f - - i s l a r g e l y a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o n n e c t i o n s . By p r o v i d i n g t h e means f o r t h e movement o f p e o p l e and goods t o p l a c e s where t h e y c a n e n j o y g r e a t e r u t i l i t y , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s p e r - m i t t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f l a b o u r f o r c e and m a t e r i a l n e c e s - s a r y f o r m a n u f a c t u r i n g and t r a d e . T h e r e i s a d i s t i n c t r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t ween t h e p a t t e r n o f l a n d u s e s i n an u r b a n a r e a and i t s h i n t e r l a n d , and t h e v a r i o u s l i n e s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t h a t r a d i a t e f r o m t h e c i t y . As George Wehrwein s t a t e s : 113. 1 Whenever a r a i l w a y , an i n t e r - u r b a n l i n e , , o r a h i g h w a y l e a v e s t h e c i t y , r e s i d e n c e s , c o m m e r c i a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t s , and i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s f o l l o w l i k e w a t e r f l o w i n g t h r o u g h a b r e a k i n a r e s e r v o i r . . . . S i n c e t h e s e means o f t r a n s p o r a t i o n r a d i a t e i n a l l d i r e c t i o n s w henever p h y s i c a l f e a - t u r e s do n o t i n t e r f e r e , t h e r u r a l - u r b a n f r i n g e c o n s i s t s o f r u r a l t e r r i t o r y p i e r c e d by f i n g e r - l i k e p r o j e c t i o n s o f u r b a n i z e d l a n d u s e s . 2 9 The d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e V i c t o r i a a r e a a d h e r e s t o t h i s g e n e r a l t h e o r y . The s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e b a s i c l a n d u s e s - - r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t , i n d u s t r i a l a r e a s , t h e C e n t r a l Bus- i n e s s D i s t r i c t , and u n d e v e l o p e d open a r e a s - - d e t e r m i n e t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r i n t r a - u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , "... w h i l e t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n t u r n d e t e r m i n e s t h e p a t t e r n o f s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n . " - ^ The f o r e c a s t s made e a r l i e r p r e d i c t c o n s i d e r a b l e pop- u l a t i o n g r o w t h f o r t h e r e g i o n - - a g r o w t h t h a t w i l l n a t u r a l l y move i n t o t h o s e a r e a s o f f e r i n g t h e l e a s t r e s i s t a n c e , b o t h i n a p h y s i c a l and an economic s e n s e . The t y p e o f g r o w t h l i k e l y t o p r e v a i l i n t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e w i l l be i n t h e f o r m o f l a t e r a l e x p a n s i o n i n t o s u r r o u n d i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s where raw l a n d w i l l be c o n v e r t e d t o o t h e r p u r p o s e s . 3 1 T o p o g r a p h i c f e a t u r e s w i l l , o f c o u r s e , g o v e r n t h e l o c a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n l i n e s , and t h e s e i n t u r n w i l l i n f l u e n c e t h e d i r e c t i o n o f c i t y g r o w t h by a c c e l e r a t i n g a x i a l and s u b u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t s . Source: C a p i t a l Region D i s t r i c t . G M K 115. As F i g u r e XI i l l u s t r a t e s , t h e u r b a n i z e d a r e a has b e e n ex- p a n d i n g n o r t h w a r d t h r o u g h t h a t p o r t i o n o f t h e S a a n i c h P e n i n s u l a w h i c h has t h e g r e a t e s t w i d t h . However, t h e e v e n t u a l outcome o f t h i s e x p a n s i o n w i l l be a n a r r o w i n g o f t h e u r b a n a r e a f r o m s i x m i l e s w i d e t o an a v e r a g e o f l e s s t h a n t h r e e m i l e s i n w i d t h . THE MUNICIPALITY OF SAANICH S a a n i c h i s a D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 38 m i l e s i n a r e a , s i t u a t e d i m e d i a t e l y n o r t h o f t h e C i t y o f V i c t o r i a . I t i s t h e f o u r t h l a r g e s t m u n i c i p a l i t y i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , a l t h o u g h t h e r e a r e a number o f m u n i c i - p a l i t i e s o f s i m i l a r s i z e , some o f w h i c h a r e g r o w i n g a t a f a s t e r r a t e . ^ 2 B a s i c a l l y , t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y s e r v e s as a r e s i d e n t i a l s u b u r b w i t h i n t h e V i c t o r i a M e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a . As i l l u s - t r a t e d by F i g u r e X I I i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t S a a n i c h i s t h e f a s t e s t g r o w i n g m u n i c i p a l i t y i n t h e V i c t o r i a R e g i o n , and f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s i t has been a b s o r b i n g a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f the r e s i d e n t i a l g r o w t h o f t h e R e g i o n . I n 1951 t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y was p r e d o m i n a n t l y r u r a l and h e n c e , was t h e n a t u r a l avenue o f e x p a n s i o n f o r s u b u r b a n r e s i d e n - t i a l b u i l d i n g . F i g u r e X I I I shows t h a t t h r e e p a r t i c u l a r a r e a s i n S o u r c e : C a p i t a l R e g i o n P l a n n i n g B o a r d , The C a p i t a l R e g i o n P l a n , V i c t o r i a , 1959. GMK F i g u r e X I I POPULATION GROWTH, 1961-1966 CENTRAL SAANICH lake cordova bay Jjeaverl i lake 8888888S8SS8888888R»S^^ SAANICH HIGHEST ABOVE AVERAGE ... AVERAGE 'it • BELOW AVERAGE ! LOWEST 1 22 21 ESQUIMAU 1 14 m 16 'OAK 8AY, 15 S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Census D a t a . GMK 118. S a a n i c h have e x p e r i e n c e d t h e h i g h e s t p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h o f t h e e n t i r e R e g i o n d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1961-66. These same t h r e e a r e a s a l s o e x p e r i e n c e d t h e h i g h e s t p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h d u r i n g t h e f i v e y e a r s p r i o r t o 1961. A l t h o u g h t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h i n many r e s - p e c t s i s m e r e l y an e x t e n s i o n o f t h e C i t y o f V i c t o r i a , i t has c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w o r t h n o t i n g . Of t h e e n t i r e V i c t o r i a R e g i o n , S a a n i c h has one o f t h e l o w e s t p e r c e n t a g e o f h o u s e h o l d s w i t h o c c u p a n c i e s o f l e s s t h a n one y e a r and has t h e l o w e s t p e r c e n t a g e o f t e n a n t o c c u - p i e d b u i l d i n g s . I n t h e same c o n t e x t , S a a n i c h has t h e s e c o n d l a r g e s t p e r c e n t a g e o f h i g h - v a l u e o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s , a n d , s i m i l a r l y , t h e s e c o n d h i g h e s t p e r c e n t a g e o f owner- o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s o f any o t h e r m u n i c i p a l i t y i n t h e R e g i o n . . L a n d S u b d i v i s i o n I n t h e p a s t t h e r e has been a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f l a r g e - s c a l e s u b d i v i s i o n i n t h e u n s e r v i c e d r u r a l and s e m i - r u r a l a r e a s o f S a a n i c h . R e c e n t l y , h o w e v e r , "... t h e r e has b een a s h i f t t o w a r d s s u b d i v i s i o n a c t i v i t y i n t h e b u i l t - u p u r b a n a r e a , b r o u g h t a b o u t b e c a u s e o f h i g h e r v a l u e s , h i g h e r 3 3 t a x e s , and p o l i c y r e f i n e m e n t " . The most o b v i o u s example o f t h i s t r e n d i s the Gordon Head are'a ( c e n s u s t r a c t No. 1 7 ) , where t h e b u l k o f s m a l l l o t d e v e l o p m e n t has been c o n c e n t r a t e d F i g u r e X I I I URBAN LOTS CREATED (Less than 1.6 acres) AND SUBDIVISION APPLICATIONS PROCESSED 1958-1969 119 500-1 450-1 Urban Lots A p p l i c a t i o n s 400-1 to m S 350-1 3004 250-1 200- 1958 59 60 61 62 63, 64 65 66 67 68 69 Y E A R Source; Planning Department, M u n i c i p a l i t y of Saanich 120. f o r t h e p a s t few y e a r s . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , S a a n i c h has a c h i e v e d a s t a b l e s i t u a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e u r b a n and r u r a l a r e a s o f the M u n i c i p a l i t y . ^ The m a j o r i t y o f s m a l l l o t s u b d i v i s i o n a c t i v i t y i n t h e f u t u r e has been f o r e c a s t as b e i n g c o n c e n t r a t e d w i t h i n t h e s e w e r e d a r e a s . Growth i s e x p e c t e d t o be c o n c e n t r a t e d m a i n l y i n t h e f u l l y s e r v i c e d u r b a n a r e a s t h a t w i l l e x p a n d i n compact s t a g e s as d e v e l o p - ment p e r m i t s . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t S a a n i c h has t h e o n l y l a r g e s e w e r e d a r e a u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n t h e e n t i r e V i c t o r i a R e g i o n . F i g u r e X I V shows t h e e x i s t i n g and p r o p o s e d sewerage a r e a s i n t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y . A r e c e n t s t u d y f o r e c a s t t h a t t h e Sewer E n t e r p r i s e A r e a c o u l d accommodate an a d d i t i o n a l 27,000 p e o p l e -- t h e a n t i c i p a t e d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h f o r S a a n i c h o v e r t h e 3 5 n e x t 15 y e a r s . However, n o t a l l t h e p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h w i l l o c c u r w i t h i n t h i s sewerage a r e a . A c c o r d i n g t o the P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , the r e m a i n d e r o f t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y has s u f f i c i e n t u n d e v e l o p e d l o t s t o accommodate an a d d i - t i o n a l 9,000 p e o p l e i f t h e y a l l c o u l d be d e v e l o p e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e r e a r e a p p r o x i m a t e l y 100 v e r y l a r g e p r o - p e r t i e s , as y e t s u b d i v i d e d , t h a t c o u l d a b s o r b a d d i t i o n a l i n c r e a s e s i n p o p u l a t i o n . A l t h o u g h the number o f s e w e r e d a r e a s b e i n g opened up i n S a a n i c h i s s u b s t a n t i a l , f a c t o r s s u c h as "... h i g h i n t e r e s t r a t e s , l i m i t e d consumer m a r k e t F i g u r e XIV LOCATION OF SEWERED AREAS 121. . _ CENTRAL SAANICH \ \ beaver] lake" ' y s SAANICHJI h < j i i r cordova bay • p i ESQUIMALT VICTORIA URBAN CONTAINMENT BOUNDARY SEWER ENTERPRISE BOUNDARY 1 EXISTING SEWERED AREA TENTATIVE EXPANSION e: M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , P l a n n i n g Department. GMK 122. and an u n c e r t a i n e c o n o m i c f u t u r e . . . " c o u l d t e n d t o r e s t r a i n d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e i m m e d i a t e f u t u r e . G rowth r a t e s a r e a l s o s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by t h e d e v e l o p m e n t and s e r v i c i n g p o l i c i e s a d o p t e d i n a l l p a r t s o f t h e R e g i o n . U n t i l r e c e n t l y , t h e g r o w t h w i t h i n t h e s e w e r e d u r b a n a r e a o f S a a n i c h has been r e l a t i v e l y s l o w compared t o o t h e r a r e a s o f t h e R e g i o n . T h i s w o u l d s u g g e s t t h a t "... p e o p l e a r e s e e k i n g t h e s h o r t t e r m a d v a n t a g e o f c h e a p e r l a n d , b u t l a n d t h a t u n d o u b t e d l y w i l l be e x t r e m e l y 38 e x p e n s i v e t o s e r v i c e i n t h e l o n g r u n " . W i t h r e s p e c t t o l a n d s u b d i v i s i o n i n t h e M u n i c i p a - l i t y , t h e P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t ' s 1970 A n n u a l R e p o r t con- c l u d e s : As t h e t r e n d s change and g r o w t h p r o c e e d s the i m p a c t n e e d o n l y be f e l t by a l i m i t e d a r e a w i t h i n S a a n i c h . L a r g e p a r t s o f t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y w i l l s i m p l y n o t be r e q u i r e d f o r u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t and can n o t be e c o - n o m i c a l l y s e r v i c e d - a t l e a s t n o t y e t . These a r e a s w i l l r e m a i n r e l a t i v e l y o p e n , h o w e v e r , t h e open s p a c e p r o v i d e d w i l l be t r a n s i t o r y . I f o u r p o p u l a t i o n c o n t i n u e s t o grow e x t e n s i v e a r e a s w i l l be r e q u i r e d o v e r t h e y e a r s f o r u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t , and even w i t h l a r g e l o t s u b d i v i s i o n and m i n i - mal s e r v i c e s , d e v e l o p m e n t c o u l d s u b s t a n - t i a l l y a l t e r t h e a p p e a r a n c e o f t h e l a n d - s c a p e . 3 9 R e s i d e n t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n F i g u r e XV shows the l o c a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n o f 124. o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s by p e r i o d o f c o n s t r u c t i o n . I t i s ap- p a r e n t t h a t t h e b u l k o f c o n s t r u c t i o n up u n t i l 1961 h a d o c c u r r e d p r i o r t o t h e S e c o n d W o r l d War. H o w e v e r , r e c e n t s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e t h e d e g r e e o f c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y p a r t i c u l a r l y o v e r t h e l a s t e i g h t o r n i n e y e a r s . D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d t h e r e was an a n n u a l a v e r a g e o f n e a r l y 600 d w e l l i n g u n i t s c o n s t r u c t e d i n S a a n i c h . T h i s f i g u r e f a r e x c e e d s c o m p a r a b l e s t a t i s t i c s f r o m e a c h o f t h e o t h e r a r e a s w i t h i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n R e g i o n . I n f a c t , o n l y r e c e n t l y has r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i n S a a n i c h b e e n e x c e e d by t h e c o m b i n e d t o t a l o f a l l o t h e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and a r e a s i n t h e R e g i o n . 4 0 As shown by F i g u r e X V I , r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i s f o r e c a s t t o i n c r e a s e i n a l l a r e a s o f S a a n i c h o v e r t h e n e x t d e c a d e , and p a r t i c u l a r l y i n c e n s u s t r a c t s 1 7 , 1 8 , and 23. F i g u r e s X V I I , s h o w i n g m e d i a n p r o p e r t y v a l u e s , and X V I I I i n d i c a t i n g t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e maj o r r e t a i l s h o p p i n g a r e a s , a r e i n c l u d e d h e r e f o r t h e y c o n s t i t u t e an i m p o r t a n t p a r t o f t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e S t u d y a r e a . A p p e n d i x "B" i n d i c a t e s t h e e x a c t l o c a t i o n and f l o o r s p a c e o f t h e s e s h o p p i n g . a r e a s . F i g u r e XVI DWELLING UNITS, SAANICH, 1961 & 1981 125. \ \ S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1961 Census D a t a C a p i t a l R e g i o n P l a n n i n g Board S o u r c e : C a p i t a l R e g i o n P l a n n i n g B o a r d , S o c i a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 1961, p. 55. G M K PROPERTY VALUES IN THE REGION S o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, a n a l y s i s o f Census D a t a . F i g u r e X I X LOCATION OF MAJOR RETAIL SHOPPING AREAS . _ CENTRAL SAANICH beaver lake 20*' cordova bay SAANICH 19* 13 + 14* 16* 15* lOJJtlL ESQUIMAU • 2 ESQUIMAU %• i VICTORIA 6* 23* 17 * 3* 1 L j 4*. 18* OAK Wj 21, 22 5* S o u r c e : P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , C a p i t a l R e g i o n D i s t r i c t . GMK 129. REFERENCES 1. C a p i t a l R e g i o n P l a n n i n g B o a r d , The C a p i t a l R e g i o n P l a n , V i c t o r i a , J a n u a r y , 1 9 5 9 , p. 9. 2. C h a r l e s N. F o r e w a r d , L a n d Use o f t h e V i c t o r i a A r e a , G e o g r a p h i c a l P a p e r No. 4 3 , Queen's P r i n t e r , O t t a w a , 1969, p. 5. 3. I n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h i s and t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n has b e e n drawn e x t e n s i v e l y f r o m two e x c e l l e n t s o u r c e s : C.N. F o r e w a r d , op. c i t . , a n d , H a r r y G r e g s o n , A H i s t o r y o f V i c t o r i a ,1842-1970 , V i c t o r i a O b s e r v e r P u b l i s h i n g Company, V i c t o r i a , 1970. 4. C.N. F o r e w a r d , op. c i t . , p. 10. 5. l o c . c i t . 6. H. G r e g s o n , op. c i t . , p. 189. 7. i b i d , p. 200-201. 8. i b i d , p. 201. 9. i b i d , p. 207. 10. C.N. F o r e w a r d , op. c i t . , p. 11. 1 1 . C a p i t a l R e g i o n P l a n n i n g B o a r d , The C a p i t a l R e g i o n Takes S t o c k , V i c t o r i a , O c t o b e r , 19 54 , p. 4. 12. C i t y o f V i c t o r i a , E c o n o m i c S u r v e y o f M e t r o p o l i t a n V i c t o r i a 1951-1981, D e p a r t m e n t o f Community D e v e l o p - ment, V i c t o r i a , June 1969, p. 7. 13. C.N. F o r e w a r d , op. c i t . , p. 9. 14. l o c . c i t . 15. A l e x a n d e r Begg, H i s t o r y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , W i l l i a m B r i g g s , T o r o n t o ^ 1894 , p. 201; c i t e d by F o r e w a r d , op. c i t . , p. 9. 16. C.N. F o r e w a r d , op. c i t . , p. 9. 17 . i b i d . , p. 10. 18. l o c . c i t . 130. 19. l o c . c i t . 20. H. G r e g s o n , op. c i t . , p. 179. 21. H a r l a n d B a r t h o l e m e w , "The L a n d Use S u r v e y " , R e a d i n g s i n U r b a n G e o g r a p h y , H.M. Mayer and C.F. K o h n , e d s . , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , C h i c a g o , 1 9 6 9 , p. 265. 22.' C.N. F o r e w a r d , op. c i t . p. 21. 23. i b i d . , p. 10. 24. l o c . c i t . 25. i b i d , p. 11. 26. C a p i t a l R e g i o n P l a n n i n g B o a r d , O v e r a l l P l a n f o r V i c t o r i a , V i c t o r i a , 1965 , p. W. 27. C.N. F o r e w a r d , op. c i t . , p. 12-13. 28. H.M. Mayer and C.F. Kohn, e d s . , R e a d i n g s i n U r b a n G e o g r a p h y , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , C h i c a g o , 1969, p. 325. 29. George W e h r w e i n , "The R u r a l - U r b a n F r i n g e " , R e a d i n g s i n U r b a n G e o g r a p h y , op. c i t . , p. 538. 30. H. B l u m e n f e l d , " T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n t h e Modern M e t r o - p o l i s " , o f f p r i n t f r o m Queen's Q u a r t e r l y , Volume L X V I I , W i n t e r 1961, No. 4, p. 641. 31. H a r l a n d B a r t h o l e m e w , op. c i t . , p. 266. 32. P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , P l a n n i n g R e p o r t , 1970, p. 4. 33. i b i d , p. 8. 34. i b i d , p. 9 and 14. 35. i b i d , p. 14. 36. P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , P l a n n i n g R e p o r t 196 8/69, p. 14. 37. P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , 1970, op. c i t . , p. 9. 38. i b i d , p. 15. 39. l o c . c i t . 40. P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , 1968/69 ,- p. 13. CHAPTER I V SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY 132. S t u d i e s must be i m p a r t i a l : t h e t a s k i s n e i t h e r t o p r o v e t h a t a p a r t i c u l a r p o l i c y i s c o r r e c t , n o r t o s u g g e s t t h a t a p a r t i c u l a r o b j e c t i v e w o u l d be d e s i r a b l e ; t h i s may emerge f r o m t h e s t u d y , b u t t h e end must n e v e r be p e r m i t t e d t o p r e j u d i c e t h e c a r e f u l and m e t h o d i c a l a p p r o a c h t o t h e d a t a . ^ OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY The f i r s t s t a g e o f the m e t h o d i c a l a p p r o a c h t o a s t u d y o f u r b a n l a n d v a l u e s i s t o o u t l i n e p r e c i s e l y t h e q u e s t i o n s t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d and r e s o l v e d . T h i s i n i t i a l l y r e q u i r e s t h e c l e a r f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e s t u d y o b j e c t i v e s . I t has b een s t a t e d t h a t due t o t h e n a t u r e o f t h e r e a l e s t a t e m a r k e t " i t i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c t h a t t h e s e l l e r i s i n e x p e r i e n c e d and u n f a m i l i a r n o t o n l y w i t h m a r k e t p r i c e s b u t w i t h t h e m e c h a n i c s o f r e a l e s t a t e t r a n s a c t i o n s " . I n v i e w o f t h i s s t a t e m e n t , t h e p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e o f the e m p i r i c a l s t u d y i s t o measure t h e changes i n raw l a n d v a l u e s f r o m 1949 t o 1970 i n t h e V i c t o r i a a r e a , and t o r a t i o n a l i z e them i n terms o f m a r k e t b e h a v i o r . M a r k e t b e h a v i o r i n h e r e n t l y i n v o l v e s an a c t i v i t y w h i c h has been t e r m e d o r l a b e l e d " l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n " . M i l g r a m d e f i n e s s p e c u l a t i o n as s i m p l y " t h e h o l d i n g o f g r o u n d o u t o f use p e n d i n g i t s s a l e a t a h i g h e r p r i c e " . An o b j e c t i v e o f the a n a l y s i s w i l l be- t o e s t a b l i s h i f , and t o what e x t e n t , s p e c u l a t i o n as so d e f i n e d i s r e s p o n s i b l e 1 3 3 . f o r b o t h t he i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e o f raw l a n d , and t h e d i s c o n t i n u o u s f r a g m e n t e d g r o w t h p a t t e r n ("urban s p r a w l " ) o f some p a r t s o f the V i c t o r i a R e g i o n , p a r t i c u l a r y i n t h e s t u d y a r e a -- t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h . C h a p t e r I I d i s c u s s e s t h e n a t u r e o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n and i t s a p p a r e n t e f f e c t s on t h e l a n d m a r k e t . A s u g g e s t e d c a u s e o f u r b a n s p r a w l , and t h e r e s u l t i n g i n c r e a s e i n raw l a n d c o s t , i s t h e i n d e p e n d e n c e o f d e c i - s i o n s among c o m p e t i t o r s f o r l a n d u s e . I n d i v i d u a l compe- t i t o r s have a d i f f e r e n t s e t o f f u t u r e e x p e c t a t i o n s and demands f o r c o m p e n s a t i o n . The r a p i d e x p a n s i o n o f t h e e c o n o m i c b a s e o f h o u s i n g has p r o m p t e d many d e v e l o p e r s t o r e s p o n d t o t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g and p r o d u c e a v a r i e t y o f d i s c o n t i n u o u s u n r e l a t e d d e v e l o p m e n t s . These d e v e l o p e r s a r e o f t e n l a b e l l e d s p e c u l a t o r s and many w r i t e r s on t h e s u b j e c t have been q u i c k t o blame r i s i n g l a n d c o s t s , p r e - m a t u r e s u b d i v i s i o n s , and an e x c e s s o f b u i l d i n g l o t s as th e r e s u l t s o f s p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y . H a r v e y and C l a r k i n "The N a t u r e and E c o n o m i c s o f Urb a n S p r a w l " c o n c l u d e t h a t s p e c u l a t i o n i s "a m o t i v a t i o n o f the g r o w t h p r o c e s s and t h a t a l l i n c r e m e n t a l a d d i t i o n s t o t h e u r b a n f r i n g e a r e s p e c u l a t i v e v e n t u r e s " . 4 The p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h s e a r c h w i l l a t t e m p t t o d e t e r m i n e i f i t i s the i n d e p e n d e n c e o f p l a c e - ment and t i m i n g p e r p e t u a t e d by p u b l i c p o l i c i e s w h i c h a l - lows a l a c k o f c o o r d i n a t i o n i n t h e l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n , 1 3 4 . p e r m i t t i n g a s p r a w l p a t t e r n and m o t i v a t i n g t h e c u r r e n t s p e c u l a t i v e p a t t e r n . P u b l i c p o l i c y has d e f i n i t e l y t e n d e d t o w a r d t h e s i n g l e - f a m i l y home as a s u b u r b a n e n v i r o n m e n t , and a c c e n t u a t e d s i n g l e - f a m i l y d e v e l o p m e n t as o p p o s e d t o c e n t r a l c i t y m u l t i p l e d e v e l o p m e n t o r e v e n r e d e v e l o p m e n t . I n a d d i t i o n , most l e n d e r s s u p p o r t i n g s u b d i v i s i o n d e v e l o p - ment demand t h a t p r o j e c t s be o r g a n i z e d i n t o c o m p l e t a b l e u n i t s w h i c h w i l l n o t e x t e n d b e y o n d a maximum o f t h r e e b u i l d i n g s e a s o n s . O t h e r q u e s t i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h i s g e n e r a l a r e a w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , does s p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y c o n t r i b u t e t o i n c r e a s e d s e r v i c e c o s t s o f e l e c t r i c i t y , w a t e r and s e w erage d i s p o s a l , and p a v i n g w h i c h a r e c o n s - t r u c t e d by t h e l i n e a l f o o t , and w h i c h w i t h f r a g m e n t e d g r o w t h a r e a b l e t o f u n c t i o n o n l y a t a p r o p o r t i o n o f c a p a - c i t y ? I f t h e i n c r e a s e i n l o t p r i c e i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e r i s i n g c o s t o f raw l a n d c o m b i n e d w i t h i n c r e a s e d deve- l o p m e n t c o s t s , what p r o p o r t i o n a t e r e l a t i o n s h i p i s t h e i n c r e a s e i n l a n d c o s t s t o i n c r e a s e d u t i l i t y c o s t s ? F i - n a l l y , p e r t a i n i n g t o s p e c u l a t i o n , i f l a n d i s b e i n g h e l d o f f t h e m a r k e t a t a t i m e when i t i s r e a d y f o r d e v e l o p m e n t , r e s u l t i n g i n p o c k e t s o f g r o w t h , who i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h i s a c t i o n ? I n o t h e r w o r d s , a r e i n d i v i d u a l s , r e a l e s - t a t e a g e n c i e s , c o n s t r u c t i o n c o m p a n i e s , o r o t h e r c o r p o r a t e d e v e l o p e r s h o l d i n g l a n d o f f t h e m a r k e t i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f t h e i r o p p o r t u n e moment o f s u b d i v i s i o n ? These a r e e r i s t i c 135. q u e s t i o n s , and may o r may n o t p r o v e t o be s a t i s f a c t o r i l y a n s w e r a b l e w i t h i n the c o n f i n e s o f t h i s s t u d y . D i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o changes i n raw l a n d p r i c e s a r e s u p p l e m e n t a r y q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g s p e c u l a t i o n , w h i c h i t i s h oped w e l l - d e f i n e d d a t a w i l l a nswer. F o r e x a m p l e , what e f f e c t s has a r i s e i n t h e g e n e r a l p r i c e s l e v e l h a d i n i n - c r e a s i n g t h e p r i c e o f raw l a n d ? By i n d e x i n g t h e r e c o r d e d s a l e s o f sample p a r c e l s o v e r a t w e n t y y e a r p e r i o d t o a b a s e y e a r i t may be p o s s i b l e t o d e r i v e a n e t e f f e c t . An a d d i t i o n a l a r e a o f a n a l y s i s i n v o l v e s t h e p a t t e r n o f d e v e l o p m e n t o f v a c a n t l a n d i n t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h s i n c e 1949. A s i d e f r o m d e t e r m i n i n g i f e i t h e r a d e f i n i t e c o n t i n u o u s p a t t e r n e x i s t s o r a d i s c o n t i n u o u s s p r a w l , as p r e v i o u s l y o u t l i n e d , t h e d a t a c o u l d r e v e a l w h e t h e r g r o w t h has been r a p i d i n one a r e a and t h e n moved t o a n o t h e r a r e a o r , i n c o n t r a s t , e v e n l y d i s t r i b u t e d . F u r - t h e r m o r e , does d e v e l o p m e n t a p p e a r t o peak i n one y e a r , o r i s t h e r e a r e l a t i v e l y a v e r a g e g r o w t h r a t e ? I t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o d e l i m i t t h e g e o g r a p h i c l o c a t i o n o f r e s i d e n t i a l s e t t l e m e n t by c ensus t r a c t s and c o r r e l a t e t h e r e s u l t s w i t h r e l e v a n t c e n s u s d a t a . O t h e r q u e s t i o n s t o be r e s o l v e d c o n c e r n t h e r e g i s - t e r e d o w n e r s h i p o f v a c a n t l a n d . As e x p l a i n e d l a t e r i n more d e t a i l , t h e " T o r r e n s S y s t e m " o f l a n d r e g i s t r a t i o n 136. g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t e s t he s t u d y o f l a n d o w n e r s h i p . Not o n l y does t h e d a t a d i s t i n g u i s h b e t ween t h e v a r i o u s t y p e s o f o w n e r s , b u t i s a l s o r e c o r d s the p e r i o d o f o w n e r s h i p o f v a c a n t l a n d as w e l l as t h e t y p e o f b u i l d e r who i m p r o v e d t h e s i t e . A c c e s s i b i l i t y t o t h e u n i m p r o v e d s i t e , w i t h i n t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h i s t h e f i n a l a r e a o f a n a l y s i s t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n the s t u d y . T h a t i s , t h e p r o g r a m w i l l examine t o what d e g r e e t h e v a l u e o f a s i t e i n t h e sample a r e a i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e C e n t r a l B u s i - n e s s D i s t r i c t , and t o what e x t e n t a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o e c o n o - m i c a c t i v i t i e s and s e r v i c e s i s a d e t e r m i n a n t o f raw l a n d v a l u e . I n summary, t h e p r e c e d i n g q u e s t i o n s f o r m t h e f r a m e - work f o r t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f d a t a and s u b s e q u e n t a n a l y s i s . G e n e r a l l y , w i t h i n t h e s e t e r m s o f r e f e r e n c e , i t i s h o p e d t h a t the c o l l e c t e d d a t a w i l l "... s u c c e e d i n d e r i v i n g w hat p a r t o f t h e r i s e i n t h e p r i c e o f raw l a n d i s a s c r i b a b l e t o the d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s i t s e l f , and what p a r t o f the p r i c e i n c r e a s e i s due t o g e n e r a l d e m o g r a p h i c and s o c i o - l o g i c a l f a c t o r s o f u r b a n i z a t i o n " . ^ 137. SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY I n t r o d u c t i o n D a t a must be h a n d l e d b e f o r e i t s c o m p l e x i t i e s can be w h o l l y a p p r e c i a t e d ; t h e r e c a n be no c o m p l e t e s u b s t i t u t e f o r t h e r e a l i t y o f p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e i n s u r v e y . ^ F o l l o w i n g i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e s t u d y o b j e c t i v e s and o u t l i n i n g t h e q u e s t i o n s t o be a n a l y z e d , t h e m e t h o d o l o g y u s e d t o a s s e m b l e t h e i n f o r m a t i o n was d e t e r m i n e d . The i m - p o r t a n t d e c i s i o n h e r e c o n c e r n e d w h i c h method o f a n a l y s i s c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o y i e l d t h e most e f f e c t i v e r e s u l t s . The r e l a t i v e l y i n e x p e r i e n c e d r e s e a r c h e r d i s c o v e r e d t h a t i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e a p p a r e n t l y s i m p l e , b u t i n r e a l i t y com- p l e x q u e s t i o n s o f p r o c e d u r e , p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e was ex- t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t . I t was r e a l i z e d t h a t no amount o f sub- s e q u e n t m a n i p u l a t i o n o r r e f i n e m e n t s i n s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y - s i s c o u l d overcome d e f i c i e n c e s w h i c h a r e i n t r o d u c e d d u r i n g t h e i n i t i a l s t a t e s i n t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f b a s i c d a t a . How- e v e r , p r e c e d i n g a d e t a i l e d e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e s e i n p u t s , a d e s c r i p t i o n o f the d a t a s o u r c e s i s p r e s e n t e d . D a t a S o u r c e s I n 1911 B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a a d o p t e d t h e T o r r e n s S y s t e m o f l a n d r e g i s t r a t i o n , w h i c h o r i g i n a t e d by s t a t u t e i n 1858 by t h e e n a c t m e n t o f t h e R e a l P r o p e r t y A c t o f S o u t h A u s t r a - l i a . T h i s s y s t e m was e s t a b l i s h e d u n d e r government c o n t r o l 13 f o r r e g i s t r a t i o n o f t i t l e t o t h e l a n d i t s e l f r a t h e r t h a n s i m p l y r e g i s t r a t i o n o f documents o r d e e d s . (The t r a d i - t i o n a l deed s y s t e m r e q u i r e s an e x a m i n a t i o n o f the c h a i n o f documents p r o d u c e d by the v e n d o r i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h t h a t t h e v e n d o r h a d b ona f i d e t i t l e t o t h e l a n d . ) An i m p o r t a n t c r i t e r i a i n c h o o s i n g t h e b e s t method o d a t a c o l l e c t i o n i s t h e c o s t w h i c h i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e l e n g t h o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n and number o f d a t a i n p u t s r e - q u i r e d . The T o r r e n s S y s t e m r e q u i r e s t h a t a l l t i t l e s be r e g i s t e r e d i n t h e L and R e g i s t r y O f f i c e , and t h u s i t i s p o s s i b l e t o a c q u i r e t h e s a l e d a t e s , t r a n s a c t i o n p r i c e s , and t y p e .of owner f o r sample p a r c e l s f o r a g i v e n t i m e h o r i z o n - . B r i e f l y , the f o u r main f e a t u r e s o f t h e T o r r e n s S y s t e m w h i c h c a n f a c i l i t a t e r e l a t i v e l y i n e x p e n s i v e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n a r e : 1. I t i s a s y s t e m o f p r o v i n c i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n o f t i t l e t o l a n d ; t h e p r o v i n c e , w i t h i n c e r t a i n l i m i t a t i o n s , g u a r a n t e e s t h e t i t l e and o p e r a t e s t h e s y s t e m ' s m a c h i n e r y . 2 . T r a n s a c t i o n s must a l l be r e g i s t e r e d a g a i n s t t h e t i t l e i n t h e p r o v i n c i a l l y o p e r a t e d l a n d r e g i s t r y o f f i c e , and t h e y a r e n o t v a l i d i n t h e f o r m o f mere i n s t r u m e n t s e x e c u t e d by t h e p a r t i e s as a g a i n s t o t h e r c o m p e t i n g r e g i - s t e r e d i n t e r e s t s . 3. The c e r t i f i c a t e o f t i t l e i s i n t e n d e d t o be a c o m p l e t e and a c c u r a t e r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t o f a l l p r e c e d i n g t r a n s a c t i o n s a f f e c t i n g the p r o p e r t y . 1 3 9 . 4. E a c h p a r c e l o f l a n d i s r e c o r d e d i n t h e r e g i s t e r a t t h e l a n d r e g i s t r y o f f i c e as a u n i t o f p r o p e r t y . The l a n d i s s u r v e y e d and a c c u r a t e b o u n d a r y and p a r c e l d e s c r i p t i o n s a r e a v a i l a b l e t h a t f a c i l i t a t e t h e r e c o r d i n g o f l a n d d i s - p o s i t i o n s . rj I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e l a n d r e g i s t r y f i l e s a c c e s s t o t h e t a x a s s e s s m e n t r o l l s was o f e q u a l i m p o r t a n c e and b e n e f i t i n c o m p i l i n g t h e s a m p l e . The S a a n i c h a s s e s s m e n t r o l l s i d e n t i f y t h e v a l u e s o f l a n d and i m p r o v e m e n t s s e p a r a t e l y and a l s o p r o v i d e t h e d a t e o f i m p r o v e m e n t . T h i s made i t p o s s i b l e t o s e p a r a t e raw l a n d s a l e s f r o m i m p r o v e d p r o p e r t y s a l e s ans a l s o i d e n t i f y minimum impr o v e m e n t s w h i c h w o u l d be d e m o l i s h e d p r i o r t o d e v e l o p m e n t . The a s s e s s m e n t c a r d s a l s o c h r o n o l o g i c a l l y l i s t e d t h e s a l e s f o r e a c h sample p a r c e l f r o m 1949-1970 a d j a c e n t t o t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g t i t l e number and i n most c a s e s i t was u n n e c e s s a r y t o s e a r c h t h e t i t l e . I n summary, the e x i s t e n c e o f t h e T o r r e n s S y s t e m and a c c e s s t o t h e a s s e s s m e n t r o l l s made the s t u d y f i n a n - c i a l l y f e a s i b l e . However, i t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t t h e r e were some o c c a s i o n s when i t was i m p o s s i b l e t o t r a c e a s u b d i v i s i o n , r e j o i n i n g , o r r e d i v i d i n g o f i n d i v i d u a l p a r - c e l s , even by c r o s s r e f e r e n c i n g the l a n d r e g i s t r y d ocu- ment number and c o r r e s p o n d i n g a s s e s s m e n t r o l l i d e n t i t y number. 140. C o m p i l a t i o n o f t h e D a t a S h e e t P r e c e d i n g t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e s a m p l i n g t e c h n i q u e and a n a l y s i s and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e c o l l e c t e d d a t a , a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e s e l e c t e d q u a n t i f i a b l e d e t e r m i - n a n t s o f raw l a n d v a l u e i s p r e s e n t e d . These d e t e r m i n a n t s a r e d e r i v e d f o r a sample o f 2638 p r o p e r t i e s i n t h e M u n i - c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , r a n d o m l y c h o s e n f r o m a l e g a l map by t h e e x t e n s i o n o f l i n e s f r o m a c h o s e n p o i n t t o t h e m u n i c i - p a l b o u n d a r i e s . These s a m p l i n g l i n e s were c h o s e n f o l l o w i n g an a n a l y s i s o f d e m o g r a p h i c and l a n d use d a t a i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h t h e most a p p r o p r i a t e a r e a s f o r t h e s t u d y . The a r e a s w o u l d n e c e s s a r i l y r e f l e c t t h e g r e a t e s t c o n c e n t r a - t i o n s o f new r e s i d e n t i a l g r o w t h d u r i n g t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . E v e r y p r o p e r t y i n a l e g a l b l o c k t h r o u g h w h i c h a l i n e p a s s e d was i n c l u d e d i n t h e sample r e g a r d l e s s o f i t s p r e - s e n t z o n i n g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . The A p p e n d i x t o t h i s c h a p t e r c o n t a i n s a copy o f t h e s ample d a t a s h e e t . The i n i t i a l p r o c e d u r e was t o i d e n t i f y f r o m the map t h e l e g a l d e s c r i p t i o n o f e a c h p r o p e r t y . O b v i o u s l y , a t t h i s s t a g e i t was i m p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t h e p a r c e l was v a c a n t o r i m p r o v e d , and c o n s e q u e n t l y , a l l de- f i n e d p r o p e r t i e s were l i s t e d . I n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y t he p r o p e r t i e s i n t h e a s s e s s m e n t c a r d s i t was n e c e s s a r y t o r e c o r d the b l o c k , l o t and p l a n number. The e n u m e r a t i o n 141. d i s t r i c t and c e n s u s t r a c t f o r e a c h s a m p l e p r o p e r t y was a l s o r e c o r d e d f o r t h e s u b s e q u e n t p u r p o s e o f c o m p a r i n g g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s w i t h c o r r e s p o n d i n g c e n s u s i n f o r m a t i o n . A l l z o n i n g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s were l i s t e d f o r e a c h p r o p e r t y . M i l g r a m p r o p o s e s i n h e r l a n d s t u d y o f P h i l a d e l p h i a t h a t , " s i n c e use t o w h i c h l a n d c a n be p u t i s a m a j o r d e t e r m i - n a n t o f p o t e n t i a l r e t u r n t h e e x p e c t e d p r i c e o f a p a r c e l 8 w o u l d r e f l e c t i t s z o n i n g c a t e g o r y a t t h e t i m e o f s a l e " . I t i s hoped t h a t t h i s p r e s u m e d e f f e c t o f z o n i n g c a n be i s o l a t e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s . F o l l o w i n g z o n i n g , t h e l o t s i z e o f e a c h p a r c e l was r e c o r d e d on t h e d a t a s h e e t i n an a t t e m p t t o a s c e r t a i n t h e e f f e c t on p r i c e o f s q u a r e f o o t a g e and l o t f r o n t a g e . I t was p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n b o t h a c r e a g e f o r l a r g e r p a r c e l s and s q u a r e f o o t a g e f o r s u b d i v i d e d l o t s . No a t t e m p t w i l l be made i n t h e s t u d y t o compare a c r e a g e v a l u e s w i t h changes i n l o t v a l u e s b u t t h e s e w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d as two s e p a r a t e c a t e g o r i e s . , The n e x t i n p u t t o the p r o g r a m was t h e d a t e o f de- v e l o p m e n t . S i n c e e a c h p r o p e r t y i n a b l o c k t h r o u g h w h i c h a s a m p l i n g l i n e p a s s e d was r e c o r d e d , and i t was r e q u i r e d t h a t e a c h p r o p e r t y be l o c a t e d i n t h e a s s e s s m e n t c a r d s t o d e t e r m i n e i f i t was i m p r o v e d , i t was d e c i d e d t o r e c o r d b o t h raw l a n d s a l e s and i m p r o v e d p r o p e r t y s a l e s . The d e v e l o p m e n t d a t e i s t h e n u s e d t o i d e n t i f y c u r r e n t v a c a n t 142. p a r c e l s and v a c a n c y p r i o r t o d e v e l o p m e n t f o r i m p r o v e d p r o p e r t i e s . From a p p r o p r i a t e p l a n n i n g maps an e n t r y was made to t h e d a t a s h e e t o u t l i n i n g t h e s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d and d a t e o f i n s t a l l a t i o n i n c l u d i n g b o t h p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s and l a n d i m p r o v e m e n t s t o t h e v a c a n t s i t e . The p u r p o s e o f t h i s e n t r y was t o d e t e r m i n e w h i c h f a c i l i t i e s , i f a n y , were a l - r e a d y i n p l a c e when t h e h o m e b u i l d e r o r d e v e l o p e r p u r c h a s e d t h e l a n d . F o r e x a m p l e , d e v e l o p m e n t o f t e n p r e c e d e s t h e i n s t a l l a t i o n o f a u t i l i t y , s u c h as t h e use o f s e p t i c t a n k s u n t i l a c i t y sewerage s y s t e m i s i n s t a l l e d , and t h i s i n - c r e a s e s t h e minimum l o t s i z e a l l o w a b l e w h i c h w i l l a f f e c t th e l o t p r i c e . The s e v e n t h v a r i a b l e i n t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n i n - v o l v e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y o r t r a v e l t i m e t o t h e C B D and o t h e r s e r v i c e s and ec o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s , s u c h as s c h o o l s and s h o p p i n g . C i t i n g M i l g r a m a g a i n , she has s t a t e d , "a p r i o r i i t was e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e d e v e l o p m e n t and p r i c e p e r a c r e w o u l d v a r y a c c o r d i n g t o l o c a t i o n and a c c e s s t o f a c i - l i t i e s 9 A s s u m i n g c o n t e m p o r a r y v a l u e s o f i n d i v i d u a l t r a n s p o r - t a t i o n w i l l be r e t a i n e d , d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f p e o p l e i s n o t o n l y i n e v i t a b l e b u t w a r r a n t e d . Combined w i t h t r a n s p o r t a - t i o n v a l u e s i s t h e change i n t y p e o f demand f o r s p a t i a l 143. r e q u i r e m e n t s . I t has been e s t i m a t e d t h a t a c e n t u r y ago a p o p u l a t i o n o f one t h o u s a n d r e q u i r e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y t e n a c r e s and t o d a y t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e one t o two h u n d r e d a c r e s . T h e r e f o r e , i t c o u l d be assumed t h a t f a m i l y s i z e and income a f f e c t s p a c e c o n s u m p t i o n p r e f e r e n c e s and c o n - s e q u e n t l y l a n d p r i c e s . I f h i g h e r incomes l e a d t o more i n t e n s i v e b i d d i n g f o r raw l a n d c a u s i n g h i g h e r p r i c e s and a s p a r s e r r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n , a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o n e c e s - s a r y o r d e s i r a b l e a c t i v i t i e s w i l l a l s o a f f e c t v a l u e s . To e s t i m a t e t r a v e l t i m e s f r o m t r a f f i c f l o w maps i t was n e c e s s a r y t o a c c u r a t e l y i d e n t i f y t h e m a i n s t r e e t s b i s e c t i n g t h e sample a r e a , k e e p i n g i n mind t h a t r a y s f r o m t h e same o r i g i n do n o t p r o v i d e t h e same a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o t h e CBD. A l s o , i t was i m p o r t a n t t o d e n o t e t h e g r o w t h p a t t e r n o f t h e main a r t e r i e s -- t h a t i s , t h e changes i n main t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r o u t e s , i f a n y , f r o m 1949-1970, and t o a t t e m p t t o i d e n t i f y t h e n o r t h - s o u t h o r e a s t - w e s t t r a f - f i c s y s t e m s . S i n c e t h e d a t a w i l l be r e l a t e d t o c e n s u s t r a c t t h e g e o g r a p h i c l o c a t i o n w i t h i n e a c h t r a c t i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t . N ot o n l y w i l l p a r c e l s w i t h i n an e n u m e r a t i o n d i s t r i c t have d i f f e r e n t t r a v e l t i m e s t o t h e CBD, due t o r e l a t i v e d i s t a n c e s f r o m t h e main a r t e r i e s , b u t a l s o d i f - f e r e n t commuting t i m e s t o s c h o o l s , s h o p p i n g , and r e c r e a - t i o n a l a r e a s w i t h i n t h e i n d i v i d u a l c e n s u s t r a c t . The f i n a l s e c t i o n o f i n f o r m a t i o n f o r the d a t a s h e e t 144. r e l a t e s t o t h e a c t u a l t r a n s a c t i o n s o f s a mple p r o p e r t i e s . F o r e a c h p r o p e r t y i n t h e s a m p l e t h e t r a n s a c t i o n d a t e ( m o n t h / y e a r ) } t i t l e number, t r a n s a c t i o n t y p e , t y p e o f o wner, and s a l e s p r i c e was r e c o r d e d f o r t h e 1949-1970 t i m e h o r i z o n . The a u t h o r r e a l i z e s t h e r e c o u l d be some e r r o r i n u s i n g t h e s a l e s p r i c e d a t a as p o i n t e d o u t by B r i g h a m i n h i s s t u d y f o r t h e Rand C o r p o r a t i o n . F o r e x a m p l e , " p u b l i c r e c o r d s a r e s u s c e p t i b l e t o l a r g e d e v i a t i o n s f r o m f u l l c a s h v a l u e ... as t h e r e a r e a l a r g e number o f s a l e s by f a t h e r s - i n - l a w t o s o n s - i n - l a w , b u i l d e r s t o t h e i r c o n - s t r u c t i o n f i r m s , and so f o r t h , and t h e s e ' s w e e t h e a r t s a l e s ' may be a t a r t i f i c i a l l y h i g h o r l o w p r i c e s " . ' ' ' 0 How- e v e r , u s i n g t h e l a n d r e g i s t r y s y s t e m and a s s e s s m e n t r o l l s i t was p o s s i b l e t o e l i m i n a t e t h e m a j o r i t y o f non-arm's l e n g t h t r a n s a c t i o n s b y r e f e r r i n g t o the document number c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o s a l e s p r i c e and by r e f e r r i n g t o t h e names o f t h e r e g i s t e r e d o w n e r s . I t i s t h o u g h t t h e r e m a i n d e r o f s u c h s a l e s r e p r e s e n t a m i n i m a l e r r o r , and t h a t d e f e c t s i n d a t a c o l l e c t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o s a l e s p r i c e w i l l n o t s i g - n i f i c a n t l y d i s t o r t t h e r e s u l t s . Under t h e column l a b e l l e d ' T r a n s a c t i o n Type' on t h e d a t a s h e e t , a s i m p l e d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n was made between a raw l a n d r a t e and a s a l e o f i m p r o v e d p r o p e r t y . The t y p e o f owner was l i s t e d e i t h e r as a p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l , r e a l e s t a t e a g e n t , h o l d i n g company, s o c i e t y o r c o r p o r a t i o n . 145. The p u r p o s e o f t h i s g r o u p i n g was t o a t t e m p t t o i d e n t i f y t h e t y p e s o f owners h o l d i n g v a c a n t l a n d and p o s s i b l y r e - l a t e k n o w l e d g e o f t h e l a n d m a r k e t i n S a a n i c h t o t h e t r a n s - a c t i o n p r i c e . I n o t h e r w o r d s , i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t c e r t a i n owner c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , s u c h as p r o f e s s i o n a l s v e r s u s non- p r o f e s s i o n a l s and n o n - b u i l d i n g c o m p a n i e s , d i c t a t e t o some d e g r e e the h o l d i n g p e r i o d p r i o r t o d e v e l o p m e n t and c o n s e - q u e n t l y t h e p r i c e o f raw l a n d . However, when c o r r e l a t i n g t h e t y p e o f owner t o o t h e r s a l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s some c a u t i o n i s w a r r a n t e d , as t o t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e r e s u l t s , b e c a u s e i t was o f t e n d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e t h e owner ' t y p e ' i f n o t s p e c i f i c a l l y s t a t e d as a company o r a g e n t , b e c a u s e f r e q u e n t l y a r e g i s t e r e d i n d i v i d u a l r e p r e s e n t s c o r p o r a t e i n t e r e s t s . U s i n g t h e d a t e o f s a l e and s a l e s p r i c e o f arm's l e n g t h t r a n s a c t i o n s , and c o m b i n i n g t h i s d a t a w i t h t h e p r e c e d i n g i n p u t s , i t was a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t answers t o a number o f d i f f e r e n t q u e s t i o n s r e raw l a n d m a r k e t w i l l be r e s o l v e d . These q u e s t i o n s i n v o l v e t h e t y p e and number o f t r a n s a c t i o n s , p r i c e t r e n d s , l a n d t u r n o v e r r a t e s , h o l d i n g t i m e , and t h e p a t t e r n o f d e v e l o p m e n t . W i t h r e s p e c t t o the t y p e and number o f t r a n s a c t i o n s , the t o t a l number o f l o t s t r a n s a c t e d f r o m 1949-1970 w i l l be c a l c u l a t e d i n a d d i t i o n t o the u n i f o r m i t y o f s a l e s , by r e c o r d i n g the s a l e s f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l y e a r t o d e t e r m i n e 146. a t r e n d i n l a n d s a l e s . The number o f l o t s n o t i n v o l v e d j i n a s a l e w i l l a l s o be t a b u l a t e d and c l a s s i f i e d by s i z e i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r s m a l l e r p a r c e l s were b o u g h t and s o l d more f r e q u e n t l y compared t o l a r g e r p a r c e l s . The p r i c e t r e n d w i l l be d e t e r m i n e d by m e a s u r i n g t h e a v e r a g e p r i c e o f a l l raw l a n d t r a n s a c t i o n s o v e r t he t i m e p e r i o d and i n d e x i n g t h i s p r i c e t o a b a s e y e a r (1949) . T h i s w i l l p r o v i d e t h e a n n u a l r a t e o f i n c r e a s e and i t w i l l t h e n be p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e i f t h i s r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i s c o n s t a n t as w e l l as g i v i n g an i n d i c a t i o n as t o t h e p r o f i t a - b i l i t y o f h o l d i n g l a n d i n t h e s t u d y a r e a . The a v e r a g e t u r n o v e r r a t e r e l a t e s t h e t o t a l number o f l a n d s a l e s t o t h e t o t a l number o f l o t s . F o r e x a m p l e , i f t h e r e a r e 600 l o t s and 800 s a l e s ( 1 9 4 9 - 1 9 7 0 ) , t h e ave- r a g e t u r n o v e r w o u l d be 1.3 t i m e s . T h i s f i g u r e c o u l d t h e n be compared t o t h e u n i f o r m i t y o f s a l e s , as d e f i n e d e a r l i e r . W i t h r e s p e c t t o raw l a n d , a more b e n e f i c i a l r a t i o w o u l d be t o r e l a t e t h e v a c a n t number o f l o t s u n s o l d i n a g i v e n y e a r t o the t o t a l o f new s u b d i v i d e d l o t s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t s o f e x c e s s b u i l d i n g l o t s on ma r k e t v a l u e s . B e s i d e s a v e r a g e t u r n o v e r , i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o c a l c u l a t e i f the number o f t r a n s a c t i o n s s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s e d as l o t s a p p r o a c h e d d e v e l o p m e n t , as w e l l as the t o t a l number o f p a r c e l s t h a t were b o u g h t by o t h e r t h a n t h e u l t i m a t e d e v e l o p e r . T h i s combines w i t h the f i n a l a r e a o f a n a l y s i s w h i c h c o n c e r n s I 147. t h e h o l d i n g t i m e . Q u e s t i o n s as t o t h e median h o l d i n g t i m e b e f o r e d e v e l o p m e n t , and t h e t y p e o f d e v e l o p e r , w i l l be a n s w e r e d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f l a n d deve- l o p e d t h a t was a c q u i r e d i n t h e y e a r o f d e v e l o p m e n t as w e l l as i n s u c c e s s i v e p r e c e d i n g y e a r s w i l l be a n a l y z e d . I t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i l l r e v e a l i f t h e r e i s a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t ween t r a n s a c t i o n s and t h e de- v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s . T h i s c o n c l u d e s t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e s e l e c t e d v a r i - a b l e s f r o m t h e d a t a s h e e t and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t h e e n s u i n g a n a l y s i s . A f l e x i b l e p r o g r a m was d e s i g n e d t o a p p l y t h e d a t a t o d i v e r s e s i t u a t i o n s a p p l i c a b l e t o d i f - f e r e n t e n u m e r a t i o n d i s t r i c t s i n d i f f e r e n t t i m e p e r i o d s . A l l t h e v a l u e s s e l e c t e d were q u a n t i f i a b l e b u t n a t u r a l l y t h e r e w i l l be some e r r o r due t o a c e r t a i n d e g r e e o f sub- j e c t i v e n e s s o f d e c i s i o n by t h e r e s e a r c h e r and t h e non- a v a i l a b i l i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n i n c e r t a i n c a s e s . However, r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e s e two n e g a t i v e a s p e c t s t o t h e a p p r o a c h , the d a t a s h o u l d p r o d u c e u s a b l e r e s u l t s and e x c l u d e sub- j e c t s m a r g i n e d t o t h e c e n t r a l o b j e c t i v e o f i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e n a t u r e o f p r i c e changes i n t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h . S a m p l i n g P r o c e d u r e Random s a m p l i n g i n v o l v e s f r o m some fo r m o f sample s e l e c t i o n f r a m e , and 148. i t h o s e most f r e q u e n t l y u s e d a r e l i s t s , j r e g i s t e r s , and maps.... The e s s e n t i a l r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e t h a t t h e frame must c o v e r t h e wh o l e p o p u l a t i o n , must be c o m p l e t e , a v o i d d u p l i c a t i o n , be a c c u - r a t e and u p - t o - d a t e and be a c c e s s i b l e and a v a i l a b l e f o r use by t h e s a m p l e r . ^ The d e f i n e d a r e a f o r t h e l a n d s t u d y i s t h e M u n i c i - p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h as o u t l i n e d by Map #1. T h i s a r e a i s composed a p p r o x i m a t e l y o f 2 5 , 0 0 0 l e g a l l y d e f i n e d p a r c e l s , f o r w h i c h t h e r e i s a s s e s s m e n t i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e . S i n c e t h e main o b j e c t i v e o f t h e s t u d y i s t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e p r i c e changes o f raw l a n d i n t h i s u r b a n i z i n g a r e a s i n c e 1949, i t was d e c i d e d t h a t t h e s a m p l i n g l i n e s s h o u l d emanate f r o m a common p o i n t i n t h e e s t a b l i s h e d b u i l t - u p a r e a and e x t e n d t o t h e m u n i c i p a l b o u n d a r i e s . The s a m p l i n g t e c h n i q u e b e s t s u i t e d t o s e l e c t i n g a p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n was t o e x t e n d t h r e e l i n e s t h r o u g h s e l e c t e d a r e a s , p r i m a r i l y e i t h e r d e v e l o p e d i n t h e s t u d y p e r i o d o r w h i c h s t i l l r e m a i n u n d e v e l o p e d . D e r i v e d f r o m a l e g a l p l a n map, e a c h p r o p e r t y i n e v e r y s q u a r e b l o c k t h r o u g h w h i c h a s a m p l i n g l i n e p a s s e d r e p r e - s e n t s one o b s e r v a t i o n u n i t f o r w h i c h t h e p r e c e d i n g o u t - l i n e d d a t a was c o l l e c t e d . The t o t a l number o f p r o p e r t i e s c o m p o s i n g t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s ample i s 2 ,638 o r a p p r o x i - m a t e l y 13 p e r c e n t o f the t o t a l number o f p r o p e r t i e s i n t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y . I 149. T a b l e 2 NUMBER OF SEPARATE TAXABLE UNITS, SAANICH, 19 71' F o l i o Count V a c a n t I m p r o v e d R e s i d e n t i a l C o m m e r c i a l I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i e d Farm A c r e a g e U t i l i t i e s (B.C. Hydro and O t h e r ) 1,978 45 30 80 268 48 17,014 286 20 172 821 14 TOTAL 2,449 18,327 20,776 1 B a s e d on i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r o f 1971. S o u r c e : " P r e l i m i n a r y 19 71 S t a t e m e n t o f Net T a x a b l e A s s e s s e d V a l u e o f R e a l P r o p e r t y by T y p e s , " D i s t r i c t o f S a a n i c h 150. The l o c a t i o n o f t h e t h r e e s a m p l i n g l i n e s i s shown by F i g u r e XX on page 151. L i n e s A, B, and C a r e c o m p r i s e d o f 533, 1109 and 996 i n d i v i d u a l p r o p e r t i e s r e s p e c t i v e l y . The l i n e s emanate f r o m t h e common o r i g i n a t t h e i n t e r s e c - t i o n o f T o l m i e and D o u g l a s S t r e e t s on t h e V i c t o r i a a n d S a a n i c h M u n i c i p a l b o u n d a r y , and a r e a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3.95, 6.87 and 5.87 m i l e s i n l e n g t h r e s p e c t i v e l y . GMK 152, REFERENCES 1. J a c k s o n , J.N., S u r v e y s f o r Town and C o u n t r y P l a n n i n g , H u t c h i n s o n U n i v e r s i t y L i b r a r y , 1966, p. 20. 2. R a t c l i f f , R i c h a r d U., U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s , McGraw- H i l l Book Company I n c . , New Y o r k , 1949 , p. 289 . 3. M i l g r a m , G r a c e , The C i t y E x p a n d s , A s t u d y o f t h e Con- v e r s i o n o f L a n d From R u r a l t o Urban U s e , P h i l a d e l - p h i a 1945-62, I n s t i t u t e f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f P e n n s y l v a n i a , P h i l a d e l p h i a , P e n n s y l - v a n i a , M a r c h 1967, p. 123. 4. H a r v e y , R o b e r t 0. and C l a r k , W.A., "The N a t u r e and E c o n o m i c s o f U r b a n S p r a w l " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s , No. 4 1 , F e b r u a r y 1965, p. 3. 5. B r i g h a m , E.F., A M o d e l o f R e s i d e n t i a l L a n d V a l u e s , The Rand C o r p o r a t i o n , S a n t a M o n i c a , C a l i f o r n i a , 1964, p. 131. 6. J a c k s o n , J.N., op. c i t . p. 21. 7. Head, I v a n , The T o r r e n s S y s t e m i n A l b e r t a , The C a n a d i a n B a r R e v i e w , V o l . 3 5 , 1957, p. 5. 8. M i l g r a m , G r a c e , op. c i t . , p. 89. 9*. M i l g r a m , G r a c e , op. c i t . , p. 87. 10. B r i g h a m , E.F., op. c i t . , p. 82. 11. J a c k s o n , J.N., op. c i t . , p. 64. CHAPTER V ANALYSIS OF DATA 154. INTRODUCTION I n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e s t u d y , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o f o r m u l a t e an a n a l y s i s p r o c e d u r e w h i c h w o u l d r e c r e a t e t h e m a r k e t b e h a v i o r o f raw l a n d s a l e s d u r i n g the s t u d y p e r i o d . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e d a t a has b e e n c o m p i l e d i n t o c o m p a r a b l e c a t e g o r i e s f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l s a m p l e a r e a s a n d , where p o s s i b l e , t h e o u t p u t s f o r t h e t h r e e a r e a s have b e e n a g g r e g a t e d , i n an a t t e m p t t o r a t i o n a l i z e t h e g e n e r a l m a r k e t b e h a v i o r o f l a n d v a l u e s w i t h i n t h e l i m i t s o f t h e s t u d y a r e a . T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l a n a l y z e t h e a s s e m b l e d d a t a u n d e r t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s . - S a l e s and D e v e l o p m e n t o f Raw L a n d - S a l e P r i c e T r e n d s o f Raw L a n d - Development C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s - S a l e s b y Z o n i n g C l a s s i f i c a t i o n - S a l e P r i c e s as a F u n c t i o n o f D i s t a n c e f r o m Sample L i n e O r i g i n s U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e a r e some u n a v o i d a b l e d e f i c i e n - c i e s p r e s e n t i n some a s p e c t s o f t h e d a t a , as a r e s u l t o f e i t h e r t i m e c o n s t r a i n t on d a t a c o l l e c t i o n o r s i m p l y t h e n o n a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e r e q u i r e d i n f o r m a t i o n a t t h e s o u r c e . A l t h o u g h a s a l e s h i s t o r y , p r i o r t o d e v e l o p m e n t , c o u l d be r e a d i l y o b t a i n e d f o r most p r o p e r t i e s , i t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l s u b d i v i s i o n p r o c e s s f o r t h e a c r e a g e p r o p e r t i e s . I n many r e s p e c t s t h i s r e p r e s e n t s a s i g n i f i c a n t 1 5 5 . deficiency in the data, and precludes an analysis of the development process in the study area which could have been most revealing. Another element in the data collec- tion that could not be obtained was information as to when services were extended to each of the sample properties. Had this data been available, the effect on land values of providing services could have been investigated. Due to the nature of the assessment cards, from which the majority of the data was obtained, i t was also impossible to estab- l i s h beyond a l l doubt the type of owner of each property f o r every sale and resale, and thus an evaluation of possible developer characteristics has not been included. For almost half of the properties sampled, there was no available infor- mation with respect to the owner or developer-type. The majority of the remaining properties appear to have been sold and/or developed by private individuals rather than by real estate or development companies. This would indicate that a significant number of properties were developed by individual owners, probably soon after services were extended. More com- plete information might have confirmed this suspicion. The end result of these deficiencies in the sample data does not s i g n i f i c a n t l y alter the original study objectives, but merely necessitates a slight modification in the scope of the 1 5 6 . study. A statement concerning the graphs appearing in this chapter is appropriate at this point. The corresponding supporting data for these graphs is shown i n tabular form i n Appendix "D" . In many instances, the graphs have been developed from this data by using a three year moving aver- age. The general effect of a moving average i s to smooth the data by averaging out excessive fluctuations. In other words, the averaging process tends to dampen the short-term variations. It is f e l t that the use of a moving average i s j u s t i f i e d i n the present study, because the overall trend produced by the data is more important than information for individual years in the sample period. 157. DISTRIBUTION OF PROPERTIES SOLD AND DEVELOPED The i n f o r m a t i o n o b t a i n e d f o r t h e s e c o n d p r o p e r t y t y p e -- s u b d i v i d e d l o t s , i n u n i t s o f 100 s q u a r e f e e t -- p r o v i d e s an a d e q u a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s ample as a b a s i s f o r e s t a b l i s h - i n g t he s a l e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f l o t s s i n c e 1949. T a b l e 3 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e b r eakdown o f r e c o r d e d s a l e s o f u n d e v e l o p e d l o t s and t h e r e s p e c t i v e t u r n o v e r r a t e s f o r the t h r e e a r e a s s a m p l e d . I n o r d e r t o be v i e w e d o b j e c t i v e l y , t h e s e f i g u r e s s h o u l d be e v a l u a t e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e amount o f d e v e l o p - ment o f u n i m p r o v e d l o t s i n t h e t h r e e a r e a s . F i g u r e s X X I , X X I I § X X I I I show t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l o t s s o l d and d e v e l o p e d o v e r t h e t w e n t y y e a r s t u d y p e r i o d f o r l i n e s A,B and C r e s p e c t i v e l y . L i n e s A and B a r e s i m i l a r i n t h a t a t no t i m e d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d have t h e r e been more l o t s d e v e l o p e d t h a n were s o l d . I n f a c t , f o r Sample 'A' t h e r e were o v e r t w i c e as many l o t s s o l d as were d e v e l o p e d ; t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g f i g u r e f o r B i s a l m o s t one and o n e - h a l f t i m e s as many s o l d as d e v e l o p e d . Thus, a l t h o u g h T a b l e i n d i c a t e s a r e l a t i v e l y l o w a n n u a l a v e r a g e t u r n o v e r r a t e o f a b o u t 3.25 p e r c e n t p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e c u r r e n t 7 o r 8 p e r c e n t t u r n o v e r r a t e f o r s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s e s -- w h i c h , on t h e s u r f a c e m i g h t s u g g e s t a " t i g h t " m a r k e t w i t h owners h o l d i n g o n t o t h e i r u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d , F i g u r e s XXI § X X I I r e v e a l t h a t i n each o f t h e p a s t 20 y e a r s t h e r e was i n f a c t an a d e q u a t e number o f l o t s b e i n g made 158. Table 3 TURNOVER RATES FOR UNIMPROVED LOTS Sample Average Period Annual Total Turn- Turn- Number Number Number over over Sample Area of Lots Developed Sold Rate Rate A 492 167 363 74% 3.7 I B 947 448 628 66 3.3 C 944 651 565 60 3.0 TOTAL 2,383 1,266 1,556 65% 3.25% Source: Analysis of sample data 1 5 9 . F i g u r e XXI DISTRIBUTION OF LOTS SOLD AND DEVELOPED (Sample A r e a "A') 50 - 40 30 - 20 - 10 . 1950 52 54 56 58 60 - 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R Source; A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a s o l d d e v e l o p e d F i g u r e XXII 160. DISTRIBUTION OF LOTS SOLD AND DEVELOPED (Sample A r e a 'B') 1950 52 54 56 58 60 - 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R " s o l d — — — developed Source: A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a F i g u r e X X I I I DISTRIBUTION OF LOTS SOLD AND DEVELOPED (Sample A r e a 'C') - i 1 1 1 I i i i i i i 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R — - s o l d — — - — d e v e l o p e d S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 162. a v a i l a b l e i n Sample A r e a s 'A' and 'B'. As w i l l be e v i d e n t t h r o u g h o u t t h i s a n a l y s i s r e s u l t s f r o m Sample 'Line ' C , w h i c h r u n s t h r o u g h an a l m o s t com- p l e t e l y b u i l t - u p a r e a , o f t e n d i f f e r c o n s i d e r a b l y f r o m t h o s e f r o m L i n e s 'A' and 'B'. Even i n t h i s i n s t a n c e , h o w e v e r , F i g u r e X X I I I does n o t i n d i c a t e a g e n e r a l t r e n d o f u n d e v e l o p e d l o t s b e i n g w i t h h e l d f r o m t he m a r k e t , a l t h o u g h t h e r e a r e p e r i o d s e v i d e n t when t h i s m i g h t have been t r u e . As i s c l e a r l y e v i d e n t i n F i g u r e X X I I I amount o f d e v e l o p - ment a p p e a r s t o f o l l o w t h e d e g r e e o f s a l e s a c t i v i t y v e r y c l o s e l y , b u t w i t h an a p p r o x i m a t e one y e a r t i m e l a g . T o t a l number o f s a l e s r e a c h e d a peak i n 1959 i n Sample A r e a 'C' , w h i l e t h e number o f d e v e l o p e d l o t s p e a k e d i n 1960. S i m i - l a r r e s u l t s a r e d i s c e r n a b l e f o l l o w i n g t h e 1961 s a l e s t r o u g h and t h e 1966 s a l e s peak. T h i s t y p e o f movement i s t o be e x p e c t e d -- d e v e l o p m e n t must n e c e s s a r i l y l a g b e h i n d s a l e s o f u n i m p r o v e d l o t s b e c a u s e i t r e s p o n d s s l o w e r t o c h a n g i n g m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s -- and the same e f f e c t can be i d e n t i f i e d i n F i g u r e s XXI and X X I I . Sample L i n e 1C' i n d i c a t e s a r e l a t i v e l y s t r o n g g r o w t h p a t t e r n -- a t l e a s t u n t i l r e c e n t y e a r s -- i n t h e number o f l o t s d e v e l o p e d , w i t h t h e peak y e a r o f d e v e l o p m e n t b e i n g 1967. The number o f u n i m p r o v e d l o t s s o l d t r a c e s an e r r a - t i c , w i d e l y r a n g i n g l i n e on t h e same g r a p h , w i t h r e l a t i v e l y F i g u r e XXIV DISTRIBUTION OF LOTS SOLD AND DEVELOPED (Sample Areas 'A' 'B' and 'C') I I I I I I I I I I I 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R ........ s o l d — — — d e v e l o p e d S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 164. w i d e - r a n g i n g p e a ks and t r o u g h s . B a s e d on t h e g e n e r a l de- v e l o p m e n t p a a t e r n i n t h i s a r e a , i t w o u l d be r e a s o n a b l e i n the f u t u r e t o e x p e c t a c o n t i n u i n g downward t r e n d i n b o t h s a l e s and d e v e l o p m e n t a c t i v i t y . I n A r e a , B ' t h e upward t r e n d s h o u l d c o n t i n u e , w h i l e Sample A r e a 'A' has p r o b a b l y r e a c h e d i t s l o w e s t l e v e l o f a c t i v i t y and an upward t r e n d c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o m a t e r i a l i z e i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . F i g u r e XXIV i s a summary g r a p h i n c o r p o r a t i n g d a t a on l o t s a l e s f o r t h e e n t i r e s a mple a r e a . The s a l e s and d e v e l o p m e n t t r e n d s f o r a c r e a g e p r o p e r t y i n t h e Sample A r e a s have a l s o been d e t e r m i n e d . T a b l e 4 shows t h e breakdown o f t h e number o f p r o p e r t i e s d e v e l o p e d d u r i n g the sample p e r i o d , t h e number o f r e c o r d e d s a l e s o f " u n d e v e l o p e d a c r e a g e p r o p e r t y and t h e r e s p e c t i v e t u r n o v e r r a t e s f o r the t h r e e a r e a s s a m p l e d . F i g u r e s XXV, XXVI § X X V I I show t h e a c t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l o t s s o l d and d e v e l o p e d o v e r t h e t w e n t y - y e a r s t u d y p e r i o d f o r Sample L i n e s A, B, and C r e s p e c t i v e l y . L i n e A i s u n i q u e i n a s m u c h as i t i s t h e o n l y a r e a s a m p l e d t h a t c o n s i s t e n t l y i n d i c a t e d a g r e a t e r number o f p a r c e l s s o l d i n e a c h y e a r t h a n were d e v e l o p e d . I n t h i s r e s p e c t i t i s s i m i - l a r t o the i n f o r m a t i o n r e c e i v e d f r o m l o t s a l e s and d e v e l o p - ment i n t h e same sample a r e a . I n f a c t , e a r l i e r comments c o n c e r n i n g the somewhat m i s l e a d i n g l o w t u r n o v e r r a t e s a p p l y T a b l e 4 TURNOVER RATES FOR ACREAGE PROPERTY Sample A v e r a g e P e r i o d A n n u a l T o t a l T u r n - T u r n - Sample Number o f Number Number o v e r o v e r A r e a P r o p e r t i e s D e v e l o p e d S o l d R a t e R a t e A 41 18 40 98% 4.9% B 162 82 91 56% 2.8% C 52 29 31 60% 3.0% TOTAL 255 129 162 64% 3.2% S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 166. Figure XXV DISTRIBUTION OF ACREAGE PROPERTIES SOLD AND DEVELOPED (Sample Area 'A') 8 H 7 4 6 4 3 4 2 A 1 A / \ V / A' w » i i r 1950 52 54 56 58 60 * 62 Y E A R Source; A n a l y s i s o f sample data 64 66 68 70 s o l d - •— — — developed F i g u r e XXVI 1 6 7 . DISTRIBUTION OF ACREAGE PROPERTIES SOLD AND DEVELOPED (Sample Area 'B') 1 9 5 0 5 2 5 4 5 6 5 8 6 0 6 2 6 4 6 6 6 8 7 0 Y E A R s o l d developed Source: A n a l y s i s of sample data 168 F i g u r e X X V I I DISTRIBUTION OF ACREAGE PROPERTIES SOLD AND DEVELOPED (Sample A r e a 'C') 6 A 5 - I 1 A \4 A i I i V 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R s o l d developed Source: A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 1 6 9 . e q u a l l y w e l l i n t h e c a s e o f t h e a c r e a g e p r o p e r t y . T h e g r a p h s i n d i c a t e t h a t o n t h e w h o l e a n a d e q u a t e a m o u n t o f u n - d e v e l o p e d l a n d h a s b e e n p l a c e d o n t h e m a r k e t d u r i n g t h e s a m p l e p e r i o d . S i m i l a r l y , t h e r e i s n o i n f o r m a t i o n t o s u g - g e s t t h a t l a n d i s b e i n g w i t h h e l d i n a r e s t r i c t i v e m a r k e t . T h e g r e a t e s t s a l e s a n d d e v e l o p m e n t a c t i v i t y h a s o c - c u r r e d i n S a m p l e A r e a ' B ' , b u t t h e g e n e r a l l e v e l o f a c t i v i t y e x h i b i t s a s t e a d y d e c l i n e o v e r t h e t w e n t y - y e a r s t u d y p e r i o d . T h e m o s t c o n s i s t e n t l e v e l , b u t a l s o t h e l e a s t a m o u n t , o f a c t i v i t y i n t h i s r e s p e c t i s i l l u s t r a t e d b y L i n e L C ' w h e r e t h e r e a r e r e l a t i v e l y f e w a c r e a g e p r o p e r t i e s r e m a i n i n g . I n t h e f u t u r e o n e c o u l d e x p e c t a d e c r e a s i n g a m o u n t o f s a l e s a n d d e v e l o p m e n t a c t i v i t y i n S a m p l e A r e a ' C , b u t s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g a m o u n t s i n 'A'. F i g u r e X X V I I I i s a s u m m a r y g r a p h i n c o r p o r a t i n g d a t a o n a c r e a g e s a l e s a n d d e v e l o p m e n t f o r t h e e n t i r e s a m p l e a r e a . F i g u r e X X V I I I 170, DISTRIBUTION OF ACREAGE PROPERTIES SOLD AND DEVELOPED (Sample Areas 'A' 'B' and 'C') 10 9 H 8 4 7 4 5 A 4 4 2 4 .1 •I /{ I s 8 s I I f I I r I » > v i * s V \ \ T 1 I I 1 I I 1 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 Y E A R 64 66 68 70 --- s o l d . — developed Source; A n a l y s i s of sample data 171. LOT AND ACREAGE SALE PRICE TRENDS F i g u r e XXIX d e p i c t s a v e r a g e l o t s a l e p r i c e s over t h e s t u d y p e r i o d i n each o f t h e sample a r e a s . S i n c e t h e e a r l y 1960's, l o t p r i c e s i n two o f t h e a r e a s have shown a sub- s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e and c e r t a i n l y i n d i c a t e no s i g n s o f dec- l i n i n g . The o t h e r a r e a , L i n e 'A', has l a g g g e d two y e a r s b e h i n d t h e o t h e r s b e f o r e a l s o showing a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e i n c r e a s e , a l t h o u g h i t was not u n t i l 1967 t h a t l o t p r i c e s began a s t e a d y i n c r e a s e comparable to t h e o t h e r two a r e a s . As F i g u r e XXX i l l u s t r a t e s , s i m i l a r p r i c e t r e n d s a r e e v i d e n t f o r a c r e a g e p r o p e r t y d u r i n g t h e same time p e r i o d . 172. F i g u r e X X I X AVERAGE UNIMPROVED LOT SALE PRICES (Sample A r e a s 'A' 'B* and 'C') 70 H 60 H •P m o o Pi m o H Pi PA 50 -% 40 H 30 20 - 10 - / V v ' f I I -1 / t .4 k f :/ —I 1 1 1 I I r~ 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 Y E A R S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f s a m p l e d a t a 64 66 68 70 ' A ' i B i F i g u r e XXX AVERAGE ACREAGE SALE PRICES (Sample A r e a s 'A' *B' and 'C') V • I I I \ • A / / / / / 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R 'A' mr - - ~ — ' R • S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a — — — — " C f 174. F i g u r e s X X X I , X X X I I § X X X I I I d e p i c t p r i c e t r e n d s o f u n d e v e l o p e d l o t s i n e a c h o f t h e a r e a s e x p r e s s e d as i n d i c e s , and c o m p a r e d " i n e a c h c a s e w i t h an i n d e x o f l a n d p r i c e s com- p u t e d by C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n . A b r i e f comment on t h e s e g r a p h s i s i n o r d e r , l e s t t h e y a p p e a r some- what m i s l e a d i n g . The g r a p h s o f t h e sample l i n e a r e a s a l l a p p e a r c o n - s i d e r a b l y d e p r e s s e d -- a t l e a s t u n t i l r e c e n t y e a r s -- as compared t o t h e CMHC i n d e x c u r v e . T h i s i s p r i m a r i l y due t o t h e n a t u r e o f t h e CMHC i n d e x , w h i c h i s c a l c u l a t e d on a n a t - i o n a l b a s i s , u s i n g as d a t a i n p u t s o n l y t h o s e u n i m p r o v e d l o t s t h a t a r e b e i n g f i n a n c e d d i r e c t l y by CMHC and d e v e l o p e d i n a g i v e n y e a r . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e CMHC i n d e x r e p r e s - e n t s t h e c o s t o f l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r i m m e d i a t e d e v e l o p m e n t . W i t h t h i s i n m i n d , i t c a n be a p p r e c i a t e d t h a t as an a r e a becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y b u i l t - u p , i t s c o s t o f l a n d i n d e x w o u l d become more c o m p a r a b l e t o t h e CMHC i n d e x . I n f a c t t h i s outcome i s e v i d e n t i n t h e g r a p h o f Sample A r e a 'A', where i n r e c e n t y e a r s t h i s p a r t i c u l a r a r e a has become a l m o s t c o m p l e t e l y d e v e l o p e d . A l l t h r e e g r a p h s i n d i c a t e t h a t , f o r t h e l a s t s e v e n o r e i g h t y e a r s , l a n d c o s t s i n t h e sample a r e a s have been i n c r e a s i n g a t a g r e a t e r r a t e t h a n t h e n a t - i o n a l a v e r a g e as computed by CMHC. F i g u r e XXXI 175, LOT PRICES INDEXED (Sample A r e a 'A') 6 0 0 -I 5 0 0 4 4 0 0 3 0 0 200 1 0 0 I I I 1 I I I I I I I 1 9 5 0 5 2 5 4 5 6 5 8 6 0 6 2 6 4 6 6 6 8 7 0 Y E A R • sample 'A' Sour c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a CMHC ( 1 9 4 9 = 1 0 0 ) F i g u r e X X X I I 176. LOT PRICES INDEXED (Sample A r e a 'B') 600 -I 500 / s 400 4 300 200 A 9 100 I I I i I I I 1 1 I 1 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R Sample 'B' CMHC Source; A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a (1949 = 100) Figure XXXIII 177. LOT PRICES INDEXED (Sample A r e a 'C') 600 -I 500 CO CO o u 400 » * / o X w Q H 300 -1 200 100 _p ! , , r j . , , ! , , 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R • Sample 'c' , QyrUC Source; A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a (1949 = 100) 178. F i g u r e XXXIV i s a w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f a l l l o t p r i c e s i n t h e sample a r e a s , a g a i n c a l c u l a t e d as an i n d e x , and compared w i t h d a t a f r o m CMHC. U n f o r t u n a t e l y i t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o compute s i m i l a r i n d i c e s f o r t h e a c r e a g e p r o p e r t i e s . F i g u r e XXXIV LOT PRICES INDEXED (Sample Areas 'A' 'B' and 'C') (1949 = 100) 179 to co 8 D O X! Q S3 H 500 400 300 200 100 / / | I 1 1 1 I r- 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 Y E A~R Source; A n a l y s i s of sample data 64 66 68 sample CMHC 70 180. W h i l e s t i l l on t h e s u b j e c t o f s a l e p r i c e s , i t w o u l d be w o r t h w h i l e t o b r i e f l y compare l a n d v a l u e s i n S a a n i c h w i t h t h o s e o f t h e M u n i c i p a l i t i e s o f Richmond and S u r r e y . I n many r e s p e c t s , Richmond i s an a r e a w i t h s i m i l a r p h y s i c a l and d e v e l o p m e n t a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as S a a n i c h . I f r e l a t i v e p r o x i m i t y t o t h e n e a r e s t c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t i s any measure o f r e l a t i v e l a n d v a l u e s , one w o u l d e x p e c t l o t and a c r e a g e p r i c e s t o be c o n s i d e r a b l y h i g h e r i n S a a n i c h t h a n i n Richmond. Such i s n o t t h e c a s e , h o w e v e r , as l o t p r i c e s a r e l e s s and a c r e a g e p r i c e s c o n s i d e r a b l y l e s s ( F i g u r e s XXXV § X X X V I ) . W i t h one o r two e x c e p t i o n s , l a n d v a l u e s f o r b o t h S a a n i c h and Richmond show v e r y s i m i l a r t r e n d s o v e r t h e p a s t 15 y e a r s . L o t and a c r e a g e p r i c e s i n S u r r e y a r e w e l l b e l o w t h o s e o f t h e o t h e r two a r e a s i n r e c e n t y e a r s , a l t h o u g h l o t p r i c e s a t l e a s t g i v e i n d i c a t i o n s o f a f o r t h c o m i n g r a p i d i n c r e a s e . F i g u r e XXXV AVERAGE UNIMPROVED LOT SALE PRICES (SAANICH, RICHMOND AND SURREY) 181. 70 60 +> * CO o o H rt 04 U H rt 04 50 40 - •30 -\ 20 A 10 -I / // / ; I I if / / • ' * J i l /I—//\ n i i i i r— 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 Y E A R Source: A n a l y s i s of sample data UBCM Land Speculation Study 64 66 68 Saanich Richmond Surrey 70 1 8 2 . F i g u r e XXXVI AVERAGE UNDEVELOPED ACREAGE SALE PRICES (SAANICH, RICHMOND, AND SURREY) 14 -I 12 io 4 8 4 4 V / i r 50 52 54 56 58 60 " 62 Y E A R Source: A n a l y s i s of sample data UBCM Land Speculation Study 64 66 68 70 ......... saanich Richmond — — Surrey 184. TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT F i g u r e XXXVII d e p i c t s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e d a t e o f the l a s t s a l e and t h e a c t u a l y e a r o f d e v e l o p m e n t f o r u n i m p r o v e d l o t s i n t h e t h r e e s a m p l e a r e a s . T h i s g r a p h i n d i c a t e s t h a t o v e r 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e sa m p l e l o t s were d e v e l o p e d i n t h e same y e a r t h e y were l a s t s o l d , and a f u r t h e r 30 p e r c e n t one y e a r a f t e r t h e y were l a s t s o l d . C o n s i d e r i n g t h e n , t h a t o v e r 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e l o t s were d e v e l o p e d w i t h i n two y e a r s o f t h e i r l a s t s a l e , t h e r e does n o t a p p e a r t o be s u b s t a n t i a l e v i d e n c e o f p r e m a t u r e s u b d i v i s i o n a c t i v i - t y i n t h e sample a r e a . I n f a c t , o n l y s i x p e r c e n t o f l o t s were d e v e l o p e d a t l e a s t t h r e e y e a r s a f t e r t h e i r l a s t s a l e . F i g u r e XXXVI11 s u p p l i e s s i m i l a r i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a c r e a g e p r o p e r t i e s , and r e v e a l s t h a t o v e r h a l f o f t h e s e p r o p e r t i e s were d e v e l o p e d w i t h i n one y e a r o f t h e i r l a s t s a l e . However, a l m o s t 20 p e r c e n t o f them h a d n o t been d e v e l o p e d w i t h i n t h r e e y e a r s o f t h e i r l a s t s a l e . T h i s w o u l d i n d i c a t e a d e g r e e o f p r e m a t u r e c o n v e r s i o n o f a c r e a g e l a n d . T h a t h i s i s e v i d e n t i n the a c r e a g e p r o p e r t i e s b u t n o t i n t h e u n i m p r o v e d l o t s p r o b a b l y r e f l e c t s t h e f a c t t h a t l o t s have s e r v i c i n g c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i r d e v e l o p - ment, whereas t h i s i s n o t a l w a y s the c a s e w i t h l a r g e a c r e - age p r o p e r t y . 185. F i g u r e X X X V I I RELATIONSHIP OF LAST SALE TO DEVELOPMENT YEAR, FOR SUBDIVIDED LOTS So u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a F i g u r e X X X V I I I RELATIONSHIP OF LAST SALE TO DEVELOPMENT YEAR, FOR ACREAGE PROPERTY . Source: SALES BY ZONING CLASSIFICATION F i g u r e . XXXIX i s a br e a k d o w n o f t h e t o t a l number o f l o t s s o l d by z o n i n g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . The r e s u l t s a r e n o t u n e x p e c t e d : l o t s zoned f o r r e s i d e n t i a l p u r p o s e s outnumber t h o s e i n t h e n e x t h i g h e s t c a t a g o r y -- c o m m e r c i a l l y - z o n e d p r o p e r t y -- by f o u r f o l d . F i g u r e XL i s a s i m i l a r b r e a k d o w n , b u t f o r l a n d s o l d i n a c r e a g e p a r c e l s . As t h e g r a p h i n d i c a t e s , 1969 was t h e f i r s t y e a r i n many t h a t t h e r e were more s a l e s o f r e s i d e n - t i a l l y - z o n e d a c r e a g e p r o p e r t y t h a n o f any o t h e r c l a s s i f i c - a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g f a r m l a n d -- an i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e c h a n g i n g l a n d u s e s o f t h e a r e a . F i g u r e XXXIX 188. SALES OF UNIMPROVED LOTS BY ZONING CLASSIFICATION (Sample Areas 'A' 'B' and 'C'),- % * / <*• / >v 4 v /« v . V j / I I 1 i i I r i r I ^ - 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 Y E A R •• -• R e s i d e n t i a l S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a — — — Commercial O t h e r 189. F i g u r e XL SALES OF ACREAGE PROPERTY BY ZONING CLASSIFICATION (Sample Areas *A' 'B' and 'C') w H CM CM <3 -s u fa o 7 H 6 J 5 -J 4 -I i 4 / \ V A / V I \ I V / 1 \ :\ V 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 Y E A R 64 66 68 7 0 Source: A n a l y s i s of sample data R e s i d e n t i a l Commercial Other ( i n - cludes farms) 190. F i g u r e X L I i l l u s t r a t e s t h e s a l e s p r i c e o f l o t s i n t h e s a m p l e d a r e a s i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e i r z o n i n g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a t t h e t i m e o f s a l e . A g a i n , t h e c h a n g i n g p a t t e r n o f l a n d u s e s i n t h e a r e a as i t becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y d e v e l o p e d a r e v e r y e v i d e n t . R e s i d e n t i a l l y - z o n e d l a n d has b e e n s t e a d i l y i n - c r e a s i n g i n v a l u e s i n c e t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , a l t h o u g h s i m i l a r i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l - a b l e f o r a c r e a g e p r o p e r t y , t h e r e a r e some o m i s s i o n s w h i c h p r e c l u d e t h e u s e o f a g r a p h i c i l l u s t r a t i o n . However, t h e t r e n d s a p p a r e n t f r o m t h e d a t a a p p e a r t o be s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f t h e u n i m p r o v e d l o t s . The o n l y n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n i s t h e f a c t t h a t t h e p r i c e o f r e s i d e n t i a l l y - z o n e d a c r e a g e p a r c e l s i s c o n s i s t e n t l y h i g h e r t h a n t h a t o f c o m m e r c i a l l y - z o n e d a c r e a g e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d - - a r e s u l t t h a t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g . F i g u r e X L I 191. SALES PRICE OF UNIMPROVED LOTS BY ZONING CLASSIFICATION (Sample Areas 'A' *B' and 'C') M I I I I / / \ I r V / m I \ V' xl \ xl \ » \/ - * X A I \ V v T~ 1 1 i i 1 1 I I I 1950 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 6 8 70 Y E A R ••••• • R e s i d e n t i a l — - - - commercial Other Source: A n a l y s i s of sample data 192. SALE PRICES AS A FUNCTION OF DISTANCE FROM SAMPLE LINE ORIGINS The f o l l o w i n g s e r i e s o f f i g u r e s c o n t a i n g r a p h i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s o f l o t and a c r e a g e s a l e p r i c e s as a f u n c - t i o n o f t h e d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e common o r i g i n o f t h e t h r e e sample l i n e s . As n o t e d e a r l i e r i n t h e s t u d y , t h e o r i g i n s e l e c t e d was a t t h e i n t e r s e c t i o n o f T o l m i e and D o u g l a s S t r e e t s , an e s t a b l i s h e d , b u i l t - u p a r e a on t h e V i c t o r i a - S a a n i c h b o u n d a r y . I n f o r m a t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e l o c a t i o n o f s e w e r e d a r e a s i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e sample l i n e s i s i n - c l u d e d on e a c h g r a p h . I n a l m o s t a l l t h e c a s e s t h e e x p e c t e d p a t t e r n o f l a n d v a l u e s p r e v a i l s : h i g h s a l e p r i c e s i n t h e b u i l t - u p a r e a w h i c h i s c l o s e t o t h e V i c t o r i a CBD, and s u c c e s s i v e l y l o w e r p r i c e s as d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e o r i g i n i n c r e a s e s and l a n d u s e s change f r o m p r e d o m i n a n t l y medium d e n s i t y c o m m e r c i a l and r e s i d e n t i a l t o l o w d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l and a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e s . I n t h e c a s e o f Sample L i n e 'B', the e f f e c t o f a w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d r e s i d e n t i a l community a t C o r d o v a Bay ( a b o u t f i v e m i l e s f r o m t h e o r i g i n o f 'B') i s r e a d i l y ap- p a r e n t on t h e two r e s p e c t i v e g r a p h s . PRICE PER 1 0 0 s q . f t . ($) o o o U l O IS s H 3 J o H O M co c! co D H co •3 Cd Co O OP CD X ' £ 6 T PRICE PER ACRE ( i n §000) 3 H M CO ui -1 S a a n i c h M u n i c i p a l Boundary > o S Q o > t* O * g 2 H H M -> Ir1 O H- J> M ro O Q H O o c. M O CO tr1 > O CO < fd CO 50 si D M H W CO co o C CD t - 1 •*6T F i g u r e X L I V 125 100 -P W o o rH w w u H Pi CM 75 50 - AVERAGE LOT PRICES OVER DISTANCE FROM TOLMIE AND DOUGLAS STREETS (Line 'B') Source; Analysis o f sample data I L E S O <r.\ ~ e x i s t i n g sewered area - Tentative expansion F i g u r e XLV AVERAGE ACREAGE PRICES OVER DISTANCE FROM TOLMIE AND DOUGLAS STREETS (Line ' B ' ) M I L E S Source; A n a l y s i s of sample data E x i s t i n g s e w e r e d a r e a - T e n t a t i v e e x p a n s i o n F i g u r e XLVI AVERAGE,LOT PRICES OVER DISTANCE FROM TOLMIE AND DOUGLAS STREETS (Line 'C') 125 - I 100 - 75 - 50 - M I L E S Source; A n a l y s i s of sample data «3 i N ^ w x V l ^ - E x i s t i n g sewered area F i g u r e X L V I I 15 10 AVERAGE ACREAGE PRICES OVER DISTANCE FROM TOLMIE AND DOUGLAS STREETS (Line 'C') 5 -\ M I L E S S o u r c e ? A n a l y s i s o f s a m p l e d a t a ID 00 >l's^SL)t{*i ~ E x i s t i n g sewered area 199. SUMMARY One a s p e c t o f t h i s s t u d y has become c l e a r l y e v i d e n t . L a n d s p e c u l a t i o n -- o r i g i n a l l y d e f i n e d as t h e w i t h h o l d - i n g o f l a n d i n i t s p r e s e n t u s e , p e n d i n g an e x p e c t e d i n - c r e a s e i n v a l u e -- does n o t a p p e a r t o be a s i g n i f i c a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c i n t h e s t u d y a r e a . I t i s , o f c o u r s e , e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u l t t o c o r r e l a t e t h e d e g r e e o f p r i c e i n c r e a s e s i n g e n e r a l t o t h e amount o f l a n d b e i n g w i t h h e l d . The d a t a a n a l y s i s has i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n e a c h o f t h e s a m p l e a r e a s , s u f f i c i e n t l a n d was p l a c e d on t h e m a r k e t i n a l m o s t a l l o f t h e y e a r s i n v e s t i g a t e d . As t h e e a r l i e r g r a p h s i n - d i c a t e d , more o f t e n t h a n n o t t h e s u p p l y o f l a n d a v a i l a b l e e x c e e d e d t h e demand as e x h i b i t e d by t h e amounts d e v e l o p e d . T h i s has o b v i o u s l y h a d a b e a r i n g on p r i c e : i f a n y t h i n g , an ample s u p p l y o f l a n d p l a c e d on t h e m a r k e t a t r e g u l a r i n t e r v a l s w o u l d t e n d t o e x e r t a dampening e f f e c t on l a n d v a l u e i n c r e a s e s . As d e m o n s t r a t e d e a r l i e r , h o wever, t h e p r i c e o f l a n d i n t h e s t u d y a r e a has b e e n i n c r e a s i n g a t a r e l a t i v e l y r a p i d r a t e . I f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n -- as d e f i n e d h e r e i n -- i s n o t a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n e x p l a i n i n g t h e s e i n c r e a s e s , o t h e r f o r c e s must be e x e r t i n g p r e s s u r e s . I n d e e d t h e r e a r e . A l t h o u g h i t i s b eyond t h e s c o p e 200. o f t h i s s t u d y t o t e s t t h i s h y p o t h e s i s , i t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t p o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e s and i n c r e a s i n g p e r c a p i t a i n - come a r e more i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o f raw l a n d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e s t e a d i l y m o u n t i n g c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r o v i s i o n o f i m p r o v e d m u n i c i p a l s e r v i c e s and f a c i l i t i e s h ave u n d o u b t e d l y had a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on l a n d p r i c e s , and t h e s u b s e q u e n t c o s t o f h o u s i n g . CHAPTER V I I CONCLUSIONS 202 INTRODUCTION T h i s s t u d y has a t t e m p t e d t o a n a l y z e t h e l a n d use p a t - t e r n , r e c e n t l a n d v a l u e t r e n d s , and t h e e x t e n t and e f f e c t o f l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n i n t h e V i c t o r i a A r e a . To many p e r s o n s , " l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n " i s a t e r m h a v i n g s e v e r a l d e f i n i t i o n s , most o f them f r o u g h t w i t h e m o t i o n a l o v e r t o n e s . I t was the i n t e n t i o n o f C h a p t e r I I t o p r e s e n t a g e n e r a l , u n e m o t i o n a l d i s c u s s i o n on l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n , i n c o r - p o r a t i n g e c o n o m i c and s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n r e l a t i o n t o N o r t h A m e r i c a n a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d l a n d , t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d f a c i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n , t h e presumed e f - f e c t s o f s p e c u l a t i o n , and an a n a l y s i s o f p o p u l a r m i s c o n c e p - t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g s p e c u l a t i o n . C h a p t e r I I I v i e w e d t he s u b j e c t o f l a n d v a l u e s and s p e c u l a t i o n i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e f u n d a m e n t a l c o n c e p t s u n d e r - l y i n g t h e c o n t r o l o f l a n d u s e . The," main a r e a s o f c o n s i d e r - a t i o n i n c l u d e d t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t i n l a n d r e s o u r c e s , t h e N o r t h A m e r i c a n s y s t e m o f l a n d t e n u r e , t h e c a s e f o r p u b l i c i n t e r v e n t i o n i n l a n d u s e s , as w e l l as the a c t u a l methods o f c o n t r o l l i n g l a n d u s e . The p u r p o s e o f C h a p t e r I V was t o p r e s e n t t h e s c o p e and me t h o d o l o g y o f t h e s t u d y . A d i s c u s s i o n o f d a t a s o u r c e s and s a m p l i n g p r o c e d u r e was i n c l u d e d . 203. C h a p t e r V e s t a b l i s h e d t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s t u d y a r e a . The h i s t o r i c a l and s p a t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f th e V i c t o r i a A r e a was t r a c e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f e s t a b l i s h - i n g t h e p r e s e n t p o s i t i o n o f S a a n i c h as an i m p o r t a n t e l e - 'rnent i n t h e R e g i o n a l c o n t e x t . A n a l y s i s o f t h e d a t a was u n d e r t a k e n i n C h a p t e r V I . I n c l u d e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r was a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c e r t a i n u n a v o i d a b l e d e f i c i e n c i e s i n t h e d a t a c o m p i l a t i o n , and t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f the d a t a a n a l y - s i s . RECAPITULATION Among t h e c o n c l u s i o n s r e a c h e d i n t h i s s t u d y i s t h e s u g g e s t i o n t h a t l a n d s p e c u l a t i o n has n o t r e s u l t e d i n the w i t h h o l d i n g o f s u b s t a n t i a l amounts o f raw l a n d t h u s c a u s i n g d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l a n d v a l u e i n c r e a s e s . As was d e m o n s t r a t e d i n C h a p t e r V I , t h e r e was ample l a n d made a v a i - l a b l e f o r d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e s a m p l e d a r e a s f o r t h e d u r a - t i o n o f t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . A l t h o u g h i t was n o t c o n c l u s i v e - l y d e t e r m i n e d , i t w o u l d a p p e a r r a t h e r t h a t , i f a n y t h i n g , t h e r e i s t o o much l a n d b e i n g t a k e n o u t o f o t h e r w i s e p r o d u c - t i v e a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e s and b e i n g made a v a i l a b l e f o r d e v e l o p - ment. One o f the most o b v i o u s r e s u l t s has been an abun- dance o f u n c o o r d i n a t e d s u b d i v i s i o n s -- a s p r a w l - l i k e p a t - t e r n has been d e v e l o p i n g t h a t i s u n d o u b t e d l y one o f the 204. most s e r i o u s p l a n n i n g p r o b l e m s o f t h e s t u d y a r e a . T h e r e a r e numerous c a u s e s o f s p r a w l on t h e r u r a l - u r b a n f r i n g e -- n o t t h e l e a s t o f w h i c h i s t h e f a i l u r e o f m u n i c i - p a l i t i e s t o p r o v i d e s a t i s f a c t o r y a l t e r n a t i v e s -- and i t i s w o r t h w h i l e a t t h i s s t a g e t o r e c o n s i d e r b r i e f l y t h e s u b j e c t o f s p r a w l e n v e l o p i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d i n l i g h t o f what h a s a l r e a d y b een d i s c u s s e d . As n o t e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s s t u d y , one c a u s e o f s p r a w l i s t h e i n d e p e n d e n c e o f d e c i s i o n among c o m p e t i t o r s f o r l a n d u s e . E a c h c o m p e t i t o r h a s a d i f f e r e n t s e t o f f u t u r e e x p e c t a t i o n s and demands f o r c o m p e n s a t i o n . The r a p i d e x p a n s i o n o f t h e e c o n o m i c b a s e o f h o u s i n g has p r o m p t e d many d e v e l o p e r s t o r e s p o n d t o t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g and p r o d u c e a v a r i e t y o f d i s c o n t i n u o u s u n r e l a t e d d e v e l o p m e n t s . These d e v e l o p e r s a r e o f t e n c a l l e d " s p e c u l a t o r s " , and many w r i t e r s a r e q u i c k t o blame t h e c o n v e r s i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d i n t o p r e m a t u r e s u b d i v i s i o n s on s p e c u l a t o r s . H a r v e y and C l a r k i n t h e i r a r - t i c l e "The N a t u r e and E c o n o m i c s o f U r b a n S p r a w l " c o n c l u d e t h a t s p e c u l a t i o n i s "a m o t i v a t i o n o f t h e g r o w t h p r o c e s s and t h a t a l l i n c r e m e n t a l a d d i t i o n s t o t h e u r b a n f r i n g e a r e s p e c u l a t i v e v e n t u r e s " . However, i t i s t h e i n d e p e n d e n c e o f p l a c e m e n t and t i m i n g -- p e r p e t u a t e d m a i n l y by z o n i n g and t a x a t i o n p o l i c i e s -- t h a t a l l o w s a l a c k o f c o o r d i n a t i o n i n t h e l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n w h i c h t h e n r e s u l t s i n a s p r a w l p a t - t e r n . T h u s , i t i s n o t t h e a c t i v i t y o f t h e s p e c u l a t o r p e r 205. se w h i c h l e a d s t o t h e p r e m a t u r e c o n v e r s i o n o f f a r m l a n d . A s e c o n d c a u s e o f b o t h s p r a w l and a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d c o n v e r s i o n i s t o p o g r a p h y w h i c h i s u n s u i t a b l e f o r c o n t i n u o u s d e v e l o p m e n t . The d e v e l o p m e n t p a t t e r n t e n d s t o u t i l i z e t h e l a n d w h i c h i s most a c c e s s i b l e and e c o n o m i c a l l y a v a i l a b l e . E x p e r i e n c e has shown t h a t most s u b u r b a n l o c a t i o n s a r e a t - t r a c t i v e f o r r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e a r e a s s u i t e d f o r s p e c i a l t y c r o p s as t h e y p r o v i d e b o t h good d r a i n a g e and s o i l s f o r g a r d e n s . T h i s i s by no means a r e c e n t phenomenon, f o r i n 1957 i t was r e p o r t e d t h a t i n O n t a r i o " e i g h t y f i v e p e r c e n t o f r e c e n t i n d u s t r i a l and u r b a n g r o w t h has t a k e n p l a c e on what i s c l a s s i f i e d as ' e x c e l l e n t ' o r ' v e r y good' a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d " . The same p a t t e r n has o c c u r r e d i n S a a n i c h , Richmond and D e l t a . As a c c e s s i b i l i t y was i m p r o v e d t h e l o w l y i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s w i t h deep s o i l s became more d e s i r a b l e as b u i l d i n g s i t e s t h a n o t h e r a r e a s w i t h s h a l l o w o r b e d r o c k s o i l s t h a t a r e e x p e n s i v e t o e x c a v a t e . P u b l i c p o l i c y w h i c h h a s s u p p o r t e d t h e s i n g l e - f a m i l y home as a s u b u r b a n e n v i r o n m e n t has a c c e n t u a t e d p e r i p h e r a l s i n g l e - f a m i l y d e v e l o p m e n t . F o r many y e a r s p u b l i c p o l i c y on h o u s i n g has been b i a s e d i n f a v o r o f t h e s u b u r b a n s i n g l e f a m i l y home as o p p o s e d t o c e n t r a l c i t y m u l t i p l e d e v e l o p - ment o r even r e d e v e l o p m e n t . F u r t h e r m o r e , most f i n a n c i a l i n t e r m e d i a r i e s s u p p o r t i n g s u b d i v i s i o n d e v e l o p m e n t demand 206 t h a t p r o j e c t s be o r g a n i z e d i n c o m p l e t a b l e u n i t s w h i c h w i l l n o t e x t e n d b e y o n d one o r a maximum o f t h r e e b u i l d i n g s e a - s o n s . S u c h l i m i t a t i o n s h ave r e s u l t e d i n numerous d i s c o n - t i n u o u s , f r a g m e n t a l d e v e l o p m e n t s . P u b l i c p o l i c i e s f i n d e x p r e s s i o n i n the v a r i o u s forms o f l a n d use c o n t r o l s , and i i s w o r t h w h i l e t o c o n s i d e r t h r e e o f t h e s e c o n t r o l s d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r I I I -- z o n i n g and s u b d i v i s i o n c o n t r o l s , and t a x a t i o n p o l i c i e s - - i n t h e p r e s e n t c o n t e x t . Z o n i n g I n g e n e r a l the e x i s t i n g z o n i n g r e g u l a t i o n s i n t h e V i c t o r i a a r e a have h a d t h e e f f e c t o f c u r t a i l i n g t h e c o n v e r - s i o n o f f a r m l a n d t o a c e r t a i n d e g r e e . However, t h e i r p r e - s e n t d e s i g n c a n n o t p r e v e n t , o r even s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n f l u - 3 ence t h e t i m i n g o f , w h o l e s a l e a g r i c u l t u r a l c o n v e r s i o n . I n e f f e c t , no z o n i n g p r o t e c t i o n e x i s t s f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d on t h e u r b a n f r i n g e , as d e m o n s t r a t e d c o n c l u s i v e l y by H a r t l e y i n h i s t h e s i s , The P r e m a t u r e C o n v e r s i o n o f F a r m l a n d B e f o r e condemning z o n i n g r e g u l a t i o n s a l t o g e t h e r , i t i s w o r t h w h i l e t o b r i e f l y c o n s i d e r t h e i n t e n t i o n s o f z o n i n g as s t a t e d i n S e c t i o n 702 o f the M u n i c i p a l A c t : (1) (b) * r e g u l a t e t h e use o f l a n d , b u i l d i n g s and s t r u c t u r e s . . . and the power t o r e g u l a t e i n c l u d e s t h e power t o p r o - h i b i t . (2) (a) the p r o m o t i o n o f h e a l t h , s a f e t y , c o n v e n i e n c e . . . 207. (b) t h e p r e v e n t i o n o f t h e o v e r c r o w d i n g o f l a n d . ( f ) t h e c o n s e r v a t i o n o f p r o p e r t y v a l u e s . * r e g u l a t e i n c l u d e s t h e power t o p r o h i b i t . T h u s , the o r i g i n a l i n t e n t i o n o f z o n i n g , as an i n s t r u m e n t o f p u b l i c r e g u l a t o r y p o w e r , i s t o c o n t r o l l a n d u s e s i n a l r e a d y b u i l t - u p a r e a s . I n o t h e r w o r d s , " u s e " r e g u l a t i o n s were e n a c t e d t o s e p a r a t e c o n f l i c t i n g l a n d u s e s , and l o t and b u i l d i n g s t a n d a r d s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f c o n t r o l l i n g p o p u l a - t i o n d e n s i t i e s . These r e g u l a t i o n s have b e e n s h a p e d t o p r o - mote u r b a n o b j e c t i v e s and s u b s e q u e n t l y have become a p a r t o f s t a n d a r d l a w s . However, p r o b l e m s have a r i s e n , p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e t h e S e c o n d W o r l d War. " W i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a m o b i l e popu- l a t i o n and a t r e n d t o w a r d s s u b u r b a n l i v i n g , i t became ob- v i o u s t h a t a r e a s o u t s i d e t h e u r b a n c e n t r e s r e q u i r e d some 5 s o r t o f p l a n n i n g c o n t r o l , e s p e c i a l l y a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s " . The r e s u l t was t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f an a g r i c u l t u r a l zone t o p r e v e n t " i n d i s c r i m i n a t e u r b a n s i z e l o t d e v e l o p m e n t " and " d i r e c t new u r b a n g r o w t h i n t o s p e c i f i c a r e a s " . T h i s f o r m o f c o n t r o l has been o n l y p a r t i a l l y s u c c e s s f u l b e c a u s e o f t e n t h e power t o p r o h i b i t r e s i d e n t i a l use i n t h e f o r m o f a g r i - c u l t u r a l z o n i n g r e g u l a t i o n s has n o t b e e n e n f o r c e d b u t o n l y a s e t o f r e s t r i c t i o n s p l a c e d on d e v e l o p m e n t t o f o r e s t a l l c o n v e r s i o n . F u r t h e r m o r e , by p r a c t i s i n g z o n i n g as i t p r e - s e n t l y e x i s t s , t h e s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s a r e a p p r o a c h i n g 208 t h e i r p r o b l e m s i n a n e g a t i v e manner f o r z o n i n g i s e s s e n t i - a l l y a n e g a t i v e b y - l a w r e g u l a t i n g what c a n n o t be done. A l t h o u g h t h e y a r e n o t i n t h e V i c t o r i a a r e a , two r e g i o n a l e x a m p l e s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l z o n i n g f o r e s t a l l i n g r e s i - d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t a r e w o r t h m e n t i o n i n g . I n 1956, R i c h - mond e n a c t e d " . . . a z o n i n g b y - l a w w h i c h r e s t r i c t e d s u b d i v i - s i o n o f f a r m l a n d t o a minimum o f f i v e a c r e s . I n t h e t h r e e y e a r s t h a t f o l l o w e d , l e s s t h a n 2 p e r c e n t o f t h e new de- v e l o p m e n t t o o k p l a c e i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l zone w h i c h h a d a f i v e a c r e minimum l o t s i z e " . ^ The s e c o n d c a s e c o n c e r n s a z o n i n g r e g u l a t i o n l e g i s l a t e d i n D e l t a by S e c t i o n 27 (a) o f th e D e l t a S u b d i v i s i o n By-Law: The minimum a r e a o f p a r c e l s b e i n g c r e a t e d by s u b d i v i s i o n i n d i s t r i c t s zoned o r o t h e r w i s e d e s i g n a t e d ( f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l u se) s h a l l be 435,600 s q . f t . (10 a c r e s ) and have a minimum f r o n t a g e o f 330 f e e t . The a c t u a l e n a c t m e n t o f t h i s l a t t e r b y - l a w s e r v e s as an a l l - t o o - c o m m o n example o f the " m u n i c i p a l m i n d " a t work. The s u b d i v i s i o n b y - l a w was p a s s e d i n November 1954, b u t , f o r some unknown r e a s o n , t h e a c t u a l l i m i t a t i o n on s u b d i v i - s i o n i n " a g r i c u l t u r a l z o n e s " was n o t i n c o r p o r a t e d u n t i l December 1958. T h i s f o u r y e a r t i m e l a g e n a t u r a l l y s p u r r e d a p e r i o d o f r a p i d g r o w t h , f o r d e v e l o p e r s knew t h a t a c u r - t a i l m e n t o f t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s was a p p r o a c h i n g , and c o n s e - q u e n t l y , s u b s t a n t i a l amounts o f p r o d u c t i v e f a r m l a n d was p r e m a t u r e l y c o n v e r t e d . The f o l l o w i n g f i g u r e s i l l u s t r a t e 209. th e e f f e c t o f t h e t i m e l a g and d e m o n s t r a t e t h e n e e d f o r c o n t r o l l e d p l a n n i n g and p r o p e r u t i l i z a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g 7 l e g i s l a t i v e p o w e r s : R e s i d e n t i a l L o t s E s t a b l i s h e d ( N o r t h D e l t a ) Number o f L o t s Y e a r E s t a b l i s h e d 1958 982 1959 291 1960 54 1961 23 I t i s w o r t h n o t i n g t h a t t h e M u n i c i p a l i t y o f S a a n i c h , i n t h e c a u s e o f " o r d e r l y and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h " , has r e c e n t l y a g r e e d t o p l a n i n t e r m s o f " u r b a n a r e a s " and " r u r a l a r e a s " t h e f o r m e r d e v e l o p i n g on f u l l s e r v i c e s and a m e n i t i e s , t h e l a t t e r r e s t r i c t e d t o minimum s e r v i c e s and a c r e a g e sub- d i v i s i o n . T h a t a minimum p a r c e l s i z e w i l l have t h e e f f e c t o f f o r e s t a l l i n g r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d i s i n d i s p u t a b l e . However, i r r e g a r d l e s s o f s u c h r e s - t r i c t i o n s , a l l f a r m l a n d I s s t i l l open t o f u l l r e s i d e n t i a l u s e . As m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r , t h e power t o p r o h i b i t i s i n - c l u d e d i n t h e t e r m " r e g u l a t e " i n S e c t i o n 702 o f t h e M u n i c i - p a l A c t . I t i s f e l t t h a t t h i s power o f p r o h i b i t i o n s h o u l d be e n a c t e d i n many a g r i c u l t u r a l l y zoned a r e a s on t h e u r b a n f r i n g e i n o r d e r t o p r e v e n t w h o l e s a l e c o n v e r s i o n , t h u s e l i - m i n a t i n g a m e r e l y r e s t r i c t i v e r e g u l a t i o n w h i c h a l l o w s 210. r e s i d e n t i a l u s e . S u b d i v i s i o n C o n t r o l The s u b d i v i s i o n b y - l a w i s a p r o v i n c i a l l y l e g i s l a t e d m u n i c i p a l b y - l a w t h a t was o r i g i n a l l y d e s i g n e d t o r e g u l a t e t h e l a y o u t o f i n d i v i d u a l l o t s , b u t w h i c h now r e g u l a t e s c o m p l e t e s u b d i v i s i o n s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e B.C. D e p a r t m e n t o f H i g h w a y s r e g u l a t e s a p r o v i n c i a l b y - l a w , " R e q u i r e m e n t s o f D e p a r t m e n t o f H i g h w a y s C o v e r i n g S u b m i s s i o n o f S u b d i v i s i o n P l a n s " , and has f r e q u e n t l y come i n t o c o n f l i c t w i t h m u n i c i - p a l p l a n n i n g a g e n c i e s . I f p r o p e r l y c o o r d i n a t e d t h e s e two b y - l a w s c o u l d p r o v i d e a most e f f e c t i v e means o f d i s c o u r a - g i n g p r e m a t u r e s u b d i v i s i o n s on f a r m l a n d p a r t i c u l a r l y i f l o c a l g o v e r nments and t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f H i g h w a y s were t o e n f o r c e h i g h d e v e l o p m e n t s t a n d a r d s i n o r d e r t o m i n i m i z e t h e number o f e x c e s s b u i l d i n g l o t s . T h i s c o o r d i n a t e d a c t i o n w o u l d have t o be c o m b i n e d w i t h p r o h i b i t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l use i n s p e c i f i e d a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s t o be c o m p l e t e l y s u c c e s s f u l , f o r s u b d i v i s i o n c o n t r o l s o n l y o p e r a t e w i t h i n a d e v e l o p m e n t . T h a t i s , p r o h i b i t i v e z o n i n g must c o n t r o l s u b d i v i s i o n l o c a t i o n as e x i s t i n g s e r v i c e and d e s i g n r e q u i r e m e n t s do n o t g u a r a n t e e t h a t the l o c a t i o n o f t h e s u b d i v i s i o n w i l l be com- p a t i b l e w i t h the o v e r a l l o b j e c t i v e s o f the m u n i c i p a l i t y ; n e i t h e r . d o t h e y p r e v e n t the s u r r o u n d i n g and i s o l a t i o n o f f a r m l a n d by d e v e l o p m e n t . However, a t p r e s e n t t h e D e p a r t - ment o f H i g h w a y s seems t o be d i c t a t i n g l o c a t i o n and much o f 211. t h e s u b d i v i s i o n c o n t r o l s t h r o u g h i t s l e g i s l a t e d p o w e r , r a t h e r t h a n t h e p l a n n i n g d e p a r t m e n t s o f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . T a x a t i o n P o l i c y T h e r e i s no q u e s t i o n t h a t one o f the most s i g n i f i c a n t c a t a l y s t s o f t h e p r e m a t u r e c o n v e r s i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d i s , i n f a c t , t h e p r o p e r t y t a x . The r e a l p r o p e r t y t a x i n - v o l v e s an a n n u a l c h a r g e l e v i e d a g a i n s t a l l r e a l p r o p e r t y ( l a n d and i m p r o v e m e n t s ) l o c a t e d i n a t a x a t i o n d i s t r i c t . T h i s t a x i s the m a i n s o u r c e o f r e v e n u e f o r m u n i c i p a l g o v e r n - ments t h r o u g h o u t Canada a c c o u n t i n g f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 50 p e r c e n t o f g e n e r a l r e v e n u e s . As t h e c i t y e xpands f a r m owners a r e c o n s t a n t l y b e i n g f o r c e d t o l i q u i d a t e t h e i r h o l d i n g s be- c a u s e t h e y a r e b e i n g t a x e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p r i c e f o r w h i c h t h e i r l a n d w i l l s e l l i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e , and t h e i r a g r i c u l t u r a l income c a n n o t s u p p o r t t h e i n c r e a s e d a s s e s s - ments . A s t u d y c o n d u c t e d showed t h a t f a r m a r e a s p a i d more i n t a x e s t h a n t h e y r e c e i v e d i n s e r v i c e s , and p r o d u c e d the f o l l o w i n g f i g u r e s : Revenues as a L a n d Use % o f C l a s s i f i c a t i o n E x p e n d i t u r e s Farm A r e a s 136% 0. S p r a w l A r e a s ' 76 S u b u r b a n A r e a s 96% 212 The s u r p l u s o f r e v e n u e s f r o m f a r m a r e a s f o r c e s more i n t e n - s i v e use and g e n e r a l l y r e s u l t s i n a s u b d i v i s i o n d e v e l o p - ment as t h e f a r m o p e r a t o r i s f o r c e d t o l i q u i d a t e h i s l a n d . T h e r e have b e e n s e v e r a l a t t e m p t s t o e l i m i n a t e t h e c o m p l i c a t i n g e f f e c t s o f p r o p e r t y t a x e s on l a n d u se p r o b l e m s Most t a x r e l i e f p r o p o s a l s a r e b a s e d on one o f two o p p o s i n g v i e w p o i n t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t a x e s on f a r m l a n d : One v i e w p o i n t i s t h a t t a x e s on f a r m l a n d s h o u l d r e m a i n l o w e r t h a n t h o s e on n o n f a r m l a n d . The o t h e r i s t h a t t o t a l t a x e s on f a r m l a n d s h o u l d be t h e same as t h o s e on n o n f a r m l a n d , b u t t h e y s h o u l d be p a y a b l e on a d i f f e r e n t t i m e s c h e d u l e . The f i r s t v i e w p o i n t l e a d s t o p r o p o s a l s f o r p r e f e r e n t i a l a s s e s s m e n t ; t h e s e c o n d r e - s u l t s i n d e f e r m e n t o f p o r t i o n s o f t a x e s • on f a r m l a n d , f o r t a x a t i o n o f c a p i t a l g a i n s , o r f o r t a x a t i o n o f d e v e l o p m e n t r i g h t s when f a r m l a n d i s s o l d f o r non- a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e s . The f i r s t r e l i e f p l a n i s d e s i g n e d t o combat an i n - c r e a s e i n a s s e s s e d v a l u a t i o n as m a r k e t v a l u e o f f a r m l a n d r i s e s t o r e f l e c t i t s h i g h e r v a l u e f o r n o n f a r m u s e s . H i s - t o r i c a l l y , A m e r i c a n S t a t e and P r o v i n c i a l s t a t u t e s have h a d l e g a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s t h a t p r o p e r t y be a s s e s s e d a t i t s mar- k e t v a l u e . R e c e n t l y , some laws have been c h a n g e d t o a l l o w a s s e s s m e n t o f f a r m l a n d on t h e b a s i s o f i t s v a l u e f o r a g r i - c u l t u r e . However, t h e s e l a w s do n o t h i n g t o p r e v e n t t h e t a x r a t e f r o m g o i n g up, and t h u s t h e y do n o t c o m p l e t e l y r u l e o u t i n c r e a s e s i n t a x e s . T h e r e i s a d e f i n i t e a d v a n t a g e t o t h i s f o r m o f t a x r e l i e f as i t e n a b l e s some f a r m e r s t o c o n t i n u e f a r m i n g i n a r e a s where t h e y m i g h t f i n d i t i m p o s s i b l e t o r e m a i n i f t a x e s were h i g h e r . A t t r a c t i v e as i t may seem, t h e w r i t e r b e l i e v e s t h i s a d v a n t a g e i s o u t w e i g h e d by t h e d i s a d v a n t a g e s a n d t h a t t h e d e f e r m e n t s y s t e m i s more w o r k a b l e . I n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , t h e most o b v i o u s d i s a d v a n t a g e i s t h e d i f f i - c u l t y o f d e c i d i n g w h e t h e r l a n d i s a c t u a l l y b e i n g f a r m e d o r i s m e r e l y b e i n g h e l d i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . S e c o n d l y , " i t c a n e n c o u r a g e s p e c u l a t i o n i n l a n d a t t h e ex- p e n s e o f o t h e r t a x p a y e r s . L a n d ca n be f a r m e d w h i l e t h e p r i c e i s i n c r e a s i n g i n a s u b u r b a n a r e a , and t h e owner, w h e t h e r he i s a f a r m e r , a s p e c u l a t o r , o r b o t h c a n b e n e f i t f r o m l o w e r t a x e s w h i l e t h e l a n d i s ' r i p e n i n g ' f o r o t h e r 11 u s e s " . T h i s t a x s y s t e m c a n a l s o e n c o u r a g e a " l e a p - f r o g g i n g " e f f e c t i n t h e c r e a t i o n o f some f a r m s c o m p l e t e l y s u r r o u n d e d b y u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t . A more e q u i t a b l e t a x r e l i e f p r o g r a m , as a s o l u t i o n t o t a x p r o b l e m s i n u r b a n f r i n g e a r e a s , i n v o l v e s d e f e r m e n t o f a p o r t i o n o f t h e t a x e s on f a r m p r o p e r t y u n t i l t h e p r o - p e r t y i s s o l d f o r o t h e r u s e s . S i m p l y s p e a k i n g , a f a r m e r c o u l d d e f e r up t o a c e r t a i n p e r c e n t e a c h y e a r ( a s p r o v i n - c i a l l y l e g i s l a t e d ) , u n t i l t h e l a n d i s d e v e l o p e d f o r r e s i - d e n t i a l p u r p o s e s . When s u c h d e v e l o p m e n t t a k e s p l a c e t h e d e f e r r e d t a x e s w o u l d be p a i d by t h e " d e v e l o p e r , w h e t h e r he 214. was a new owner o r f a r m e r s u b d i v i d i n g h i s own l a n d . The d e f e r r e d t a x e s c o u l d be a p p l i e d a g a i n s t t h e d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t o f p r o v i d i n g s u c h s e r v i c e s as s c h o o l s , r o a d s , s e w e r s , u t i l i t i e s , a n d f i r e p r o t e c t i o n t o t h e new r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a . T h i s s y s t e m w o u l d o n l y be s u c c e s s f u l i f a s s e s s o r s d i d n o t a t t e m p t t o compensate f o r i m m e d i a t e t a x l o s s e s f r o m de- f e r r a l s by a s s e s s i n g f a r m p r o p e r t y a t a h i g h e r l e v e l . Over t h e p a s t few y e a r s o t h e r s y s t e m s o f f a r m a s s e s s - ment have been s u g g e s t e d a c r o s s Canada, "A s y s t e m o f f a r m a s s e s s m e n t b a s e d on t h e l a n d ' s a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y 12 r a t h e r t h a n on i t s m a r k e t v a l u e " was recommended i n O n t a r i o . I f s u c h a p r o p o s a l were l e g i s l a t e d , h o w e v e r , I t w o u l d o n l y r e s u l t I n i n e f f i c i e n t l a n d use as d e v e l o p e r s w a i t e d f o r t h e o p p o r t u n e moment t o s u b d i v i d e . A n o t h e r r e c o m m e n d a t i o n made t o O n t a r i o ' s p r o v i n c i a l government was f o r a " s e p a r a t e a s s e s s m e n t o f a farm h o u s e and t h e p r o d u c - 13 t i v e f a r m p r o p e r t y " . I n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a t h e B.C. Fede- r a t i o n o f A g r i c u l t u r e has l o n g demanded t h a t s c h o o l t a x e s 1 4 be removed f r o m a l l f a r m l a n d zoned f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e . Th e r e have b e e n many o t h e r p r o p o s e d t a x r e l i e f s y s t e m s t o a c c o m p l i s h a smooth f l o w o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d i n t o r e s i - d e n t i a l u s e s and the m a j o r i t y have been t a b l e d i n p r o v i n - c i a l l e g i s l a t u r e s o r i g n o r e d . I n summary, t h e most e q u i - t a b l e and w o r k a b l e s y s t e m w o u l d a p p e a r t o i n v o l v e some f o r m o f t a x d e f e r m e n t -- the d e s i g n and a p p l i c a t i o n o f w h i c h 215. c o u l d f o r m t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r o f a p o s s i b l e r e s e a r c h t h e s i s . Among t h e m a j o r c o n c l u s i o n s o f t h i s s t u d y i s t h e c o n t e n t i o n t h a t , a l t h o u g h l a n d p r i c e s i n t h e s a m p l e d a r e a s have been i n c r e a s i n g r a p i d l y -- p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e t h e e a r l y 1960's -- f r o m t h e d a t a c o l l e c t e d t h e r e i s no e v i d e n c e t o s u g g e s t t h a t t h e a c t i o n s o f l a n d s p e c u l a t o r s have made a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e s e i n c r e a s e s . R a t h e r , a p o r t i o n o f t h i s g e n e r a l p r i c e r i s e i s p r o b a b l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s i t s e l f -- t h e a c t u a l i n c r e a s i n g c o s t o f p r o v i d i n g i m p r o v e d s e r v i c e s and f a c i l i t i e s . I f an o r g a n i z e d g r o w t h p a t t e r n i s n o t a d h e r e d t o , s c a t t e r e d sub- d i v i s i o n d e v e l o p m e n t s w i l l n a t u r a l l y i n c r e a s e t h e s e r v i c e c o s t s o f w a t e r , sewer and p a v i n g , w h i c h a r e e s t i m a t e d and c o n s t r u c t e d by t h e l i n e a l f o o t . W i t h f r a g m e n t e d g r o w t h , t h e s e s e r v i c e s may f u n c t i o n o n l y a t a f r a c t i o n b f c a p a c i t y , and e v e n t u a l a t t e m p t s t o l i n k p o o r l y i n t e r r e l a t e d s e r v i c e d a r e a s a r e hampered by t h e i n h e r e n t a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s . The g r e a t e r p o r t i o n o f t h e g e n e r a l p r i c e r i s e a c c o m p a n y i n g d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e s t u d y a r e a must be a t t r i b u - t a b l e t o g e n e r a l f a c t o r s o f u r b a n i z a t i o n -- t o t h e d e m o g r a p h i f o r c e s w h i c h have i n c r e a s e d t h e demand f o r l a n d , ( t h e demand 216. for land being derived from the demand for housing), and to the "... technological, sociologic, and economic forces which have permitted or caused great masses of people to spread out over a broad suburban area around the more compact central (city) of a previous period."."^ It is hoped that this study has cleared up some commonly-held misconceptions with respect to. price changes in general and land speculation in particular. Speculators do not purchase land with the expectation of exerting mono- p o l i s t i c powers, but rather with the anticipation of future price increases. To the extent that their expectations are realised, they earn a p r o f i t , but in no way do they set the f i n a l price for their land holdings. The s e l l i n g price o f land is determined by the f i n a l use -- the ultimate demand for the developed property. In the absence of land investors, as Hamilton points out, "... the value of newly-developed homes would remain the same. The only difference is that the pro f i t s currently accruing to land investors would go either to the orig i n a l owner of agricultural land or to the developer" Land speculators are often blamed for conditions which f a l l outside their sphere. For example, poor subdivision developments and premature conversion of agricultural land are 217. not indications that speculation i t s e l f is bad. Poor subdivision developments and premature farmland conversion imply poor public controls on land use. In many instances then, municipalities themselves are at fault for not exercis- ing s u f f i c i e n t control over their land, and not the investors, developers or land speculators who are merely "playing by the rules". In fact, as a f i n a l note, there is a case for the economic and soc i a l j u s t i f i c a t i o n of land speculation, as Samuelson and Scott outline: ... speculators can perform a s o c i a l function, holding land off the market u n t i l i t s price r i s e reveals that, in a competitive situation, demand has become acute; inappropriate develop- ments are thus prevented. Indeed, faced with this resolute behavior by speculators, many municipal authorities have sought a public "land bank" to enable them to perform -- for other, but not necessarily better, objectives essentially the same role.-^y SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH This section w i l l b r i e f l y outline areas of possible further research, either using the assembled data in this study, or in related areas. 2 1 8 . Within the confines of the present study further analysis of the data could be very worthwhile. A regression analysis of -the data plus other inputs would help to determine how much of the increase in land prices i s explained by variables such as per capita income, regional population, housing starts and mortgage rates. Results of such an analysis would probably support the general theory that popu- l a t i o n and income are the two prime determinants of land values. Studies by Maisel and Hamilton have already established the significance of this relationship. It would also be interesting to investigate the actual rates of return earned by land speculators. As a whole, i t is f e l t that land speculation is not nearly as lucrative as many care to believe. Naturally, there are those who make windfall gains, but there are probably many more who barely earn enough -- pa r t i c u l a r l y considering the risks involved -- and many who have lost considerable investments. I t would be important to investigate not only the speculator who turned a large p r o f i t i n a land transaction, but also the land owner who sold him the land i n the f i r s t place, (was he ignor- ant of i t s potential value?), and the person who bought the land from the speculator, (why did he pay such a price?). 219. The q u e s t i o n o f s p e c u l a t i v e p r o f i t s b r i n g s up a n o t h e r i n t e r e s t i n g a r e a f o r p o s s i b l e f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . A s p e c u l a t i v e p r o f i t -- a l s o t e r m e d t h e " u n e a r n e d i n c r e m e n t " , o r t h e " d e v e l o p m e n t v a l u e " o f l a n d -- i s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e p r i c e a t w h i c h t h e i n v e s t o r s e l l s h i s u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d and t h e sum o f h i s a c q u i s i t i o n c o s t s and h i s h o l d i n g c o s t s . S i n c e t h e e n h a n c e d v a l u e o f u r b a n and s u b u r b a n l a n d i s due l a r g e l y t o m u n i c i p a l p l a n n i n g , w o r k s and s e r v i c e s , t h e r e i s a c a s e t h a t t h e d e v e l o p m e n t v a l u e o f s u c h l a n d s h o u l d a c c r u e t o t h e community as a w h o l e , n o t t o p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s . T h i s i s g e n e r a l l y t h e r e a s o n i n g t h a t u n d e r l i n e s t h e c o n c e p t o f " b e t t e r m e n t " . I n i t s b r o a d e s t s e n s e , b e t t e r m e n t i s d e s c r i p - t i v e o f t h a t m a r g i n a l v a l u e o f l a n d w h i c h i s added t o i t s e x i s t i n g v a l u e by t h e p l a n s o r e n t e r p r i s e o f t h e community, o r o f p e r s o n s o t h e r t h a n t h e l a n d - o w n e r h i m s e l f . W h i l e t h e p r i n c i p l e o f c o l l e c t i n g f o r b e t t e r m e n t i s s o u n d , i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n t h i s c o n n e c t i o n i n G r e a t B r i t a i n f o r more t h a n 30 y e a r s i n d i c a t e t h a t p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e measurement and c o l l e c t i o n o f a b e t t e r m e n t l e v y a r e a l m o s t i n s u r m o u n t a b l e . T h e r e has b een l i t t l e , i f any, r e l a t e d e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h i n 19 t h e N o r t h A m e r i c a n c o n t e x t , however. 220. The e s s e n t i a l p r o b l e m r e q u i r i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s : ( 1 ) When i s i t b o t h p r a c t i c a b l e and d e s i r a b l e t o l e v y some c h a r g e a g a i n s t p e r s o n s made b e t t e r o f f t h r o u g h t h e a c t i o n s o f m u n i c i p a l p l a n n i n g , (and c o n v e r s e l y , t h e r e l a t e d p r o b l e m o f c o m p e n s a t i n g t h o s e made w o r s e o f f ) ; and , (2) How c a n t h i s be a c c o m p l i s h e d ? However t h i s p r o b l e m i s a n s w e r e d , i t w i l l u l t i m a t e l y a f f e c t t h e c o s t o f much m u n i c i p a l p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y and t h e r e f o r e e x e r t an i n f l u e n c e on t h e amount and t y p e o f p l a n n i n g t h a t p u b l i c a g e n c i e s c a n a f f o r d t o u n d e r t a k e . I t i s e v i d e n t , t h e n , t h a t t h e p r o b l e m r e l a t e s t o t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s as w e l l as t o t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f income and w e a l t h . F u r t h e r m o r e , b e c a u s e t h e f i n a n c i a l p o s i t i o n o f p l a n n i n g a u t h o r i t i e s i s a n o t h e r f a c t o r d e t e r m i n i n g what t h e y c a n a f f o r d , t h e p r o b l e m o f l o c a l g overnment f i n a n c e i s v e r y much an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f t h e c o m p e n s a t i o n - b e t t e r m e n t p r o b l e m . C o n s e q u e n t l y , any t h o r o u g h a n a l y s i s o f t h i s p r o b l e m w o u l d n e c e s s a r i l y i n v o l v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f a v e r y w i d e r a n g e o f i s s u e s . 2 2 1 . REFERENCES 1. R. H a r v e y and W.A. C l a r k , " T h e N a t u r e a n d E c o n o m i c s o f U r b a n S p r a w l " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 1 6 , N o . 1 , F e b r u a r y 196 5 , p . 3 . 2 . E d w a r d H a l l , " F a c t s , F a c t o r i e s and F a r m s " , A g r i c u l t u r a l I n s t i t u t e R e v i e w , V o l . 1 2 , N o . 4 , J u l y 1 9 5 7 , p . 1 8 . 3 . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o b e a r i n m i n d d u r i n g t h e e n s u i n g d i s - c u s s i o n t h a t i t i s n o t s o much t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d c o n v e r s i o n as t h e t i m i n g o f s u c h c o n v e r s i o n s w h i c h i s t h e c a u s e f o r c o n c e r n . 4 . James E. H a r t l e y , The R e l a t i o n o f T a x a t i o n t o S e r v i c e s as a T e c h n i q u e t o P r e v e n t t h e P r e m a t u r e C o n v e r s i o n o f F a r m l a n d , u n p u b l i s h e d M . S c . T h e s i s , D e p a r t m e n t o f Commun i t y and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f B . C . , A p r i l 1 9 6 3 . 5. i b i d , p . 4 1 . 6 . A . L . C r e r a r , " L a n d F o r Our F u t u r e " , Commun i t y P l a n n i n g R e v i e w , V o l . 9 , N o . 2 , J u n e 1 9 5 9 , p . 4 4 . 7. J o h n N . J a c k s o n , e t . a l . , The I m p a c t o f H i g h w a y D e v e l o p - ment on L a n d Use , R e s e a r c h P r o j e c t , R e p o r t N o . T~, S c h o o l o f Commun i t y a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r - s i t y o f B . C . , J une 1 9 6 3 . 8. The m a j o r s o u r c e o f c o n f l i c t b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and l a n d use i s f o u n d i n e x i s t i n g l e g i s l a t i o n : The p l a n n i n g o f a r t e r i a l and s e c o n d a r y h i g h w a y r o u t e s i n d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and s m a l l c i t i e s i s a t p r e s e n t done b y t h e p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t t h r o u g h i t s H i g h w a y s D e p a r t m e n t . . . . I n c i t i e s o f o v e r 1 5 , 0 0 0 p o p u l a t i o n s u c h p l a n n i n g i s a m u n i c i p a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . The d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t y t h e r e f o r e , u n l i k e t he c i t y o f o v e r 1 5 , 0 0 0 p o p u l a t i o n does n o t h a v e i t s h i g h w a y p l a n n i n g done by t h e same s t a f f as does i t s l a n d u s e p l a n n i n g ; n o r i s t h e h i g h w a y and t r a f f i c p l a n n i n g s u b j e c t t o r e - v i e w b y t h e m u n i c i p a l c o u n c i l . ( D . M . C h u r c h i l l , L o c a l Gove rnment and A d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t h e L o w e r M a i n l a n d M e t r o p o l i t a n C o m m u n i t y , A R e p o r t o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n J o i n t C o m m i t t e e on L o c a l G o v e r n m e n t , V a n c o u v e r , 1 9 5 9 , V o l . 1 , p . 8) 222, The d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s c o n t a i n t h e m a j o r i t y o f ag- g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d s a n d , t h e r e f o r e , come u n d e r t h i s l e g i s - l a t i o n . I n e s s e n c e t h i s means t h a t a m a j o r h i g h w a y c a n be p l a n n e d w i t h o u t r e f e r e n c e t o l o c a l l a n d use n e e d s , and t o m i n i m i z e s o - c a l l e d s p e c u l a t i o n t h e g o v e r n m e n t w i l l o f t e n k e e p t h e p l a n s c o n f i d e n t i a l e v e n f r o m t h e p l a n n i n g d e p a r t m e n t o f a d i s t r i c t m u n i c i p a l i t y . F u r t h e r - more, P r o v i n c i a l Government Co m m i t t e e s f o r m e d t o s t u d y f u t u r e a r t e r i a l h i g h w a y r e q u i r e m e n t s r e g a r d h i g h w a y s o n l y as h i g h w a y s and i t i s n o t t h e i r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y , w i t h i n t e r m s o f r e f e r e n c e , t o c o n s i d e r t h e i m p a c t o f h i g h w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n upon t h e use o f l a n d . The b e s t example o f t h i s l a c k o f c o o r d i n a t i o n b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d use i n v o l v e s t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e Deas I s l a n d (George M a ssey) T u n n e l . I n 1955 a r e p o r t was p r e p a r e d b y a t e c h n i c a l c o m m i t t e e recommending f u t u r e c r o s s i n g s o f t h e F r a s e r R i v e r a t A n n a c i s a n d P o r t Mann. T h i s r e p o r t i n d i c a t e d some ap- p r e c i a t i o n o f t h e s t r o n g l i n k b e t w e e n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t b y e n g i n e e r s : The A n n a c i s and P o r t Mann C r o s s i n g s ... w o u l d g u i d e u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t i n t o t h e S u r r e y P l a t e a u w h i c h i s h i g h w e l l d r a i n e d a n d , h a s r e l a t i v e l y p o o r s o i l s . A Lower F r a s e r c r o s s i n g w o u l d t e n d t o s t i m u l a t e d e v e l o p m e n t i n West D e l t a w h i c h i s l o w l y i n g , s u b j e c t t o d r a i n a g e p r o b l e m s , and c o n t a i n s some o f t h e most p r o d u c t i v e l a n d s i n t h e r e g i o n . The c h a n n e l l i n g o f u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t i n t o t h e h i g h e r l a n d , w h i c h c a n be done w i t h o u t any s i g n i f i c a n t l o s s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n and a t a minimum c o s t f r o m t h e p o i n t o f v i e w o f u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s , i s i m p e r a t i v e f r o m t h e r e g i o n a l p o i n t o f v i e w . ( T e c h n i c a l C o m m i t t e e f o r M e t r o p o l i t a n Highway P l a n n i n g , p p s . 9-10) The Deas I s l a n d T u n n e l r e p r e s e n t s t h e c o m p l e t e d i s r e - g a r d o f t h i s c o m p r e h e n s i v e e n g i n e e r i n g and p l a n n i n g ad- v i c e by t h e P r o v i n c i a l D e p a r t m e n t o f H i g h w a y s r e s u l t i n g i n "some o f t h e most p r o d u c t i v e l a n d s i n t h e r e g i o n " b e i n g c o n v e r t e d t o r e s i d e n t i a l use as d e v e l o p e r s t o o k a d v a n t a g e o f i n c r e a s e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y w h i c h a l s o r e p r e - s e n t e d t h e n a t u r a l l i n e o f l e a s t r e s i s t a n c e . 9. LMRPB o f B.C., E c o n o m i c A s p e c t s o f U r b a n S p r a w l , New W e s t m i n s t e r , 1956, p. 36. 10. W i l l i a m H e n e b e r r y , "Taxes A f f e c t L a n d Use i n U r b a n F r i n g e A r e a s " , J o u r n a l o f S o i l and W a t e r C o n s e r v a -t i o n , V o l . 18, May/June 1962. D. i»» 223. 11. i b i d , p. 109. 1 2 . The T o r o n t o G l o b e and M a i l , "Farm Tax R e v i s i o n S t u d i e d i n O n t a r i o " , J u n e 6 , 1969 , p. B3. 13. i b i d , November 1 1 , 1 9 6 9 , p. B2. 14. S e e , f o r e x a m p l e , " F a r m e r s Make Own Tax S u r v e y " , The V a n c o u v e r S u n , December 1 2 , 1964, p. n a . 15. G r a c e M i l g r a m , The C i t y E x p a n d s , The I n s t i t u t e o f E n v i r o n m e n t a l S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f P e n n s y l v a n i a , 1967, p. 131. 16. S t a n l e y W. H a m i l t o n , P r i c e Movements i n U n d e v e l o p e d L a n d F a c i n g U r b a n i z a t i o n : A M i c r o S t u d y , u n p u b l i s h e d Ph.D. t h e s i s i n B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k l e y , 1970, p. 53. 17 P a u l A. S a m u e l s o n and A n t h o n y S c o t t j £ | S 2 £ i g , M c G r a w - H i l l , T o r o n t o , T h i r d C a n a d i a n E d . , 1971, p. 991. 18. Sherman J 19 erman J . M a i s e l , " P r i c e Movements o f B u i l d i n g S i t e s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s : A C o m p a r i s o n Among M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s " , R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n P a p e r s , 1964, pp. 47-60; and H a m i l t o n , 1970, o p . c i t . S e v e r a l y e a r s ago i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , i n i n s t a n c e s where p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y v a l u e s were e n h a n c e d by p u b l i c a c t i o n s , t h e c o s t was "... t y p i c a l l y c h a r g e d a g a i n s t e ach p r o p e r t y i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h some f o r m u l a w h i c h i s p resumed t o d i s t r i b u t e t h e b u r d e n i n p r o - p o r t i o n t o r e l a t i v e b e n e f i t . " (R. U. R a t c l i f f , R e a l E s t a t e A n a l y s i s , M c G r a w - H i l l , T o r o n t o , 1 9 6 1 , p.56) Termed a " s p e c i a l a s s e s s m e n t " , t h i s was, i n f a c t , a t y p e o f b e t t e r m e n t l e v y , b u t t h e p r i n c i p l e was abandoned due t o a d m i n i s t r a t i v e p r o b l e m s . I n Canada, t h e l e g a l c o n c e p t o f " s e v e r e n c e " c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d as a method o f c o l l e c t i n g f o r b e t t e r m e n t i n some i n s t a n c e s . F o r e x a m p l e , where a p o r t i o n o f a p r o p e r t y i s e x p r o p r i a t e d and t h e r e m a i n d e r i n c r e a s e s i n v a l u e as a d i r e c t c o n s e q u e n c e , t h e amount o f t h i s i n c r e a s e i s d e d u c t e d f r o m t h e c o mpensable payment. T h u s , i n a 224. s e n s e , a b e t t e r m e n t l e v y i s c o l l e c t e d . However, t h i s method i s l i m i t e d o n l y t o p r o p e r t y t h a t has b e e n d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n e x p r o p r i a t i o n ; t h e r e i s no p r o - v i s i o n f o r c o l l e c t i n g a b e t t e r m e n t c h a r g e f r o m n e i g h b o u r i n g p r o p e r t i e s t h a t may a l s o have i n c r e a s e d i n v a l u e . F i n a l l y , a n o t e a b o u t t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f a c a p i t a l g a i n s t a x on t h e q u e s t i o n o f b e t t e r m e n t . The r e l e v a n c e o f s u c h a t a x -- w h i c h w o u l d , i n e f f e c t , be v e r y s i m i - l a r t o t h e B r i t i s h i d e a o f t a x i n g t h e " d e v e l o p m e n t v a l u e " o f l a n d -- c a n be r e a d i l y a p p r e c i a t e d . I n o r d e r t o be most e f f e c t i v e i n t h i s c o n t e x t , h o w e v e r , t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f a c a p i t a l g a i n s t a x w o u l d have t o be a t t h e m u n i c i p a l l e v e l . BIBLIOGRAPHY 226. BIBLIOGRAPHY BOOKS A l o n s o , W i l l i a m , L o c a t i o n and Land U s e , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , 1956. Andrews R.B., U r b a n G r o w t h and D e v e l o p m e n t , Simmons - Boardman P u b l i s h i n g H o u s e , New Y o r k , 1962. B a i r , F r e d e r i c k H., P l a n n i n g C i t i e s , A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , V i r g i n i a C u r t i s , e d . , C h i c a g o , 1970. 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S m i t h , F r a n k , S u p e r i n t e n d e n t o f M u n i c i p a l P u b l i c W o r k s , D i s t r i c t o f S a a n i c h , p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w s , F e b r u a r y 1 0 , 1971 and A p r i l 2 , 1 9 7 1 . ~ W a k e l i n , C h a r l e s F. , C h i e f P l a n n e r , C a p i t a l R e g i o n D i s t r i c t , p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w s , J a n u a r y 1 5 , and F e b r u a r y 1 2 , 1971. , C h i e f P l a n n e r , C a p i t a l R e g i o n D i s t r i c t , p e r s o n a l c o r r e s p o n d e n c e , S e p t e m b e r 7, 1971. A P P E N D I C E S 1 APPENDIX "A" 242 DATA COLLECTION CODING SHEET I.D. 2, 3. 4. 5. 6, 7 8. L e g a l D e s c r i p t i o n D . L . C e n s u s T r a c t Z o n i n g : y e a r y e a r _ L o t S i z e o r A c r e a g e : I f D e v e l o p e d , D a t e : S e r v i c e s P r o v i d e d : T r a v e l Time t o CBD (V) S c h o o l BLOCK C l a s s C l a s s S h o p p i n g C e n t r e ^ D a t e o f . Document Type of S a l e Number T r a n s - a c t i o n LOT E n u m e r a t i o n D i s t r i c t year_ year_ CBD (S) C l a s s C l a s s _month / y e a r m o n t h / y e a r PLAN t y p e of Owner S a l e P r i c e ($ L a n d ) M o r t a g e D a t a 243. APPENDIX "B" LOCATION AND FLOOR SPACE OF MAJOR RETAIL SHOPPING AREAS OUTSIDE CENSUS TRACT NO. 5 (KEYED TO FIGURE ) Map R e f . F l o o r Space Number L o c a t i o n (Sq. F t . ) 1 M a y f a i r - 3100 b l o c k D o u g l a s . 249,600 2 Q u a d r a § H i l l s i d e 53,800 3 H i l l s i d e C e n t r e - 1600 b l o c k H i l l s i d e Avenue 273,640 4 F o r t § F o u l Bay Road 29,700 5 F a i r f i e l d P l a z a - 1500 b l o c k F a i r f i e l d Road 20,400 6 200 b l o c k Cook S t r e e t 29,800 7 M e n z i e s § Simcoe 17,100 8 E s q u i m a l t P l a z a 1100 b l o c k E s q u i m a l t Road 34,400 9 Head § E s q u i m a l t Road 25,300 10 C o n s t a n c e § E s q u i m a l t Road 39,000 11 Gorge $ T i l l i c u m 21,200 12 B u r n s i d e § H a r r i e t 24,000 13 B u r n s i d e § T i l l i c u m 25,100 14 Town § C o u n t r y - 3500 b l o c k D o u g l a s S t r e e t 251,075 244. Map Ref. Number L o c a t i o n F l o o r Space (Sq . F t . ) 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 "23. 3200-3300 b l o c k s D o u g l a s Q u a d r a § Cook S h e l b o u r n e P l a z a - S h e l b o u r n e § C e d a r H i l l C r o s s Road Cadboro Bay V i l l a g e - C a d b o r b Bay Road and S i n c l a i r R o y a l Oak C e n t r e - West S a a n i c h Road C o r d o v a Bay - C o r d o v a Bay Road § Doumac Avenue E s t e v a n § D u n l e v y Oak Bay Avenue U n i v e r s i t y H e i g h t s S h e l b o u r n e § M c K e n z i e 38,900 37,200 50,300 21,100 22,300 12,100 15,600 53,900 131,000 TOTAL 1,476,515 O t h e r A r e a s Not I n d i c a t e d On Map: Colwood P l a z e - Sooke Road § G o l d s t r e a m Avenue L a n g f o r d - 700 b l o c k G o l d s t r e a m Sooke - West C o a s t Road § O t t e r P o i n t Road S i d n e y - Beacon Avenue 57,000 10,500 11,800 87,500 245. O t h e r A r e a s Not I n d i c a t e d On Map ( C o n t ' d ) L o c a t i o n F l o o r Space . ( S q . F t . ) B r e n t w o o d - West S a a n i c h Road § V e r d i e r Avenue 11,600 TOTAL 178,400 GRAND TOTAL 1,654,915 S o u r c e : P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , C a p i t a l R e g i o n D i s t r i c t 246. APPENDIX " C " REGULATION OF PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT IN SAANICH Summary of Procedure STAGE 1 WHERE EXISTING ZONING WILL NOT ACCOMMODATE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT P r e l i m i n a r y C o n s u l t a t i o n s w i t h S t a f f Submission of A p p l i c a t i o n to rezone to C o u n c i l C o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h S t a f f F u r t h e r I n f o r m a t i o n from A p p l i c a n t ——— .Planning Department, t COUNCIL Report to C o u n c i l R e j e c t or C a l l P u b l i c Hearing Zoning by-law i . e . A pproval by C o u n c i l .Report to A d v i s o r y P l a n n i n g Commission t COUNCIL 248. STAFF WHERE EXISTING ZONING WILL ACCOMMODATE STAFF ^ PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT ^ C o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h S t a f f S u b m i s s i o n of Development P l a n s t o P l a n n i n g D e partment STAGE 2 A p p r o v a l of P l a n n e r (Development P e r m i t ) i f i n c o n f o r m a n c e w i t h Land use r e q u i r e - ments S u b m i s s i o n o f B u i l d i n g p l a n s t o g e t h e r w i t h Development p e r m i t t o B u i l d i n g Dept STAGE 3 A p p r o v a l o f Development E n g i n e e r i f i n co n f o r m a n c e w i t h b u i l d i n g r e g u l a t i o n s STAGE 4 S i t e i n s p e c t i o n t o e n s u r e c o m p l i a n c e w i t h D evelopment p l a n ( c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h P l a n n - i n g ) and b u i l d i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s , and i s s u e of Occupancy p e r m i t S o u r c e : P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , M u n i c i p a l i t y of S a a n i c h , A n n u a l R e p o r t 1967, A p p e n d i x I . APPENDIX "D" SUMMARY TABLES FOR GRAPHS IN CHAPTER V I T a b l e 5 NUMBER OF SALES OF SUBDIVIDED LOTS BY SAMPLE AREA Sample A r e a Y e a r A C D A, C, 1949 13 30 16 59 1950 13 15 18 46 1951 16 16 4 36 1952 9 21 15 45 1953 23 31 12 66 1954 18 40 26 84 1955 25 37 16 78 1956 24 32 12 68 1957 19 25 11 55 1958 19 38 32 89 1959 23 24 56 103 1960 19 25 21 65 1961 14 19 14 47 1962 9 34 18 61 1963 14 23 51 88 19-64 13 15 46 74 1965 28 34 55 117 1966 14 19 49 82 1967 27 23 49 99 1968 14 65 33 112 1969 7 46 10 63 1 9 7 0 1 2 16 1 19 TOTAL 373 628 565 1,556 ^"Data o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 19 70. Source;, A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a T a b l e 6 NUMBER OF SALES OF ACREAGE PROPERTY BY SAMPLE AREA Sample A r e a Y e a r A B C A, B, 1949 2 9 1 12 1950 1 7 2 10 1951 1 2 1 4 1952 2 2 - 4 1953 2 4 1 7 1954 1 6 1 8 1955 - 6 2 8 1956 1 6 3 10 1957 3 4 1 8 1958 6 6 1 13 1959 5 3 3 11 1960 3 4 1 8 1961 - 6 1 7 1962 - 4 2 6 1963 1 " 6 2 9 1964 2 2 1 5 1965 - 2 2 1966 2 3 2 7 1967 2 • 1 5 8 1968 2 7 1 10 1969 4 1 _ 5 19 70 T — — — TOTAL 40 91 31 162 D a t a o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 1970. S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a <• 252. T a b l e 7 NUMBER OF UNIMPROVED LOTS DEVELOPED BY SAMPLE AREA Sample A r e a Y e a r A B C A, B, 19 49 9 10 30 49 1950 11 23 21 55 1951 6 10 21 37 1952 8 10 21 39 1953 6 14 24 44 1954 4 18 13 35 1955 15 23 31 69 1956 10 22 20 52 1957 11 17 19 47 1958 12 36 24 72 1959 13 28 39 80 1960 3 4 29 36 1961 3 21 21 45 1962 4 20 14 38 1963 6 12 51 69 .1964 8 11 27 46 1965 5 16 53 74 1966 5 22 45 72 1967 8 17 51 76 1968 11 35 59 105 1969 4 55 27 86 1970-j^ 5 24 11 40 TOTAL 167 448 . 651 1,266 i D a t a o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 1970 . S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 253. T a b l e 8 NUMBER OF ACREAGE PROPERTIES DEVELOPED BY SAMPLE AREA Sample A r e a Y e a r A B C A, B, 19 49 1 9 10 1950 1 2 5 8 1951 2 5 3 10 1952 1 2 2 5 1953 - 3 3 1954 - 3 2 5 1955 - 3 3 1956 - 5 3 8 1957 - 4 1 5 1958 1 15 - 16 1959 1 5 1 7 1960 1 3 1 5 1961 - 2 1 3 1962 - 3 - 3 .1963 - 1 1 2 1964 - 1 2 3 1965 3 5 - 8 1966 - 5 3 8 19 6 7 - 2 3 5 1968 1 2 1 4 1969 3 1 4 1970! 3 1 • — 4 TOTAL 18 82 29 129 ^ D a t a o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 1970. S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 254. T a b l e 9 NUMBER OF ACRES AND AMOUNT OF ACREAGE PROPERTY DEVELOPED AND SOLD I N THE STUDY PERIOD A c r e a g e A c r e a g e Number Number P r o p e r t y P r o p e r t y o f A c r e s o f A c r e s U n d e v e l o p e d D e v e l o p e d S o l d D e v e l o p e d 1949 184 63 64 .30 110 .99 1950 175 9 10 . 38 11 .16 1951 167 8 12 .10 9 . 83 1952 162 5 16 .66 9 .89 1953 158 4 13 . 79 7 .99 1954 152 6 45, .27 7, . 28 1955 147 5 19, .25 39, .18 1956 139 8 31, .41 44. . 53 1957 134 5 20, .81 20, .48 1958 117 17 19 , .93 21. . 28 1959 110 7 35. , 76 22. , 80 1960 106 4 19. ,64 6. , 24 1961 103 3 8. ,19 3. ,67 1962 101 2 22. ,93 3. ,81 1963 99 2 15. , 28 4. ,68 1964 96 3 15. 93 6. 87 1965 90 6 2. 97 11. 48 1966 82 8 19. 63 12. 34 1967 78 4 35. 09 18. 19 1968 74 4 24. 98 13. 57 1969 71 3 8. 95 6. 40 1 9 7 0 2 67 4 0. 00 9. 17 TOTAL 180 463. 25 401. 83 1 These- f i g u r e s r e p r e s e n t t h e amounts i n o r b e f o r e 1949. 'Data o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 1970. S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 255. T a b l e 10 AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER 100 SQ. FT. FOR UNIMPROVED LOTS BY SAMPLE AREA Sample A r e a Y e a r A B C A, B, 1949 18 14 12 17 1950 7 21 16 16 1951 15 27 5 20 1952 33 11 20 21 1953 26 19 11 22 1954 24 21 28 27 1955 22 20 15 23 1956 42 30 24 36 1957 17 35 14 27 1958 29 11 14 16 1959 29 25 20 25 1960 29 18 21 23 1961 50 17 18 27 1962 23 20 20 24 1963 23 20 25 24 1964 36 21 28 29 1965 64 38 52 54 1966 15 48 52 49 1967 44 42 53 48 1968 43 52 69 58 1969 46 60 66 61 19 70J 85 72 109 76 D a t a o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 19 70. S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 256. T a b l e 11 AVERAGE SALESPRICE PER 100 SQ. FT. FOR UNIMPROVED LOTS BY SAMPLE AREA (INDEXED) Sample A r e a A B C A, B , C 19 49 100 100 100 100 1950 43 141 131 97 1951 83 186 39 120 1952 184 78 160 126 1953 147 131 93 131 1954 134 143 222 162 1955 123 135 124 139 1956 235 205 191 213 1957 94 239 111 163 1958 161 75 115 99 1959 161 170 157 148 1960 165 121 168 140 1961 279 115 144 163 1962 132 136 156 143 1963 128 137 199 145 1964. 200 143 226 171 1965 358 255 411 319 1966 88 325 411 294 1967 246 284 418 288 1968 243 351 543 344 1969 255 407 519 360 1970-L 472 489 852 450 D a t a o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 1970. S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 257. T a b l e 12 CMHC INDEX OF LAND COSTS" Y e a r 19 49 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 19-5 7 1958 1959 I n d e x o f C o s t 100.0 127.1 156. 8 179.5 179.3 254. 3 272.1 303. 3 343. 8 374.9 376. 3 Y e a r 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 I n d e x o f C o s t 359.2 373.4 385. 8 409 . 7 428. 2 428. 6 457. 5 480. 2 511.0 551.61 Base y e a r : 1949. S o u r c e : C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g S t a t i s t i c s , 1968 T a b l e 80 , 1969 T a b l e 86, - C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n 258. T a b l e 13 NUMBER OF SALES OF SUBDIVIDED LOTS BY ZONING CLASSIFICATION Zoned Zoned Zoned Y e a r R e s i d e n t i a l C o m m e r c i a l O t h e r 1949 10 39 10 1950 3 39 4 1951 10 24 2 1952 5 32 8 1953 10 46 10 1954 17 61 6 1955 13 58 7 1956 ' 7 56 5 1957 14 32 9 1958 11 72 6 1959 13 83 7 1960 17 38 10 1961 8 36 3 1962 7. 54 - 1963 5 77 6 1964 13 55 6 1965 19 84 14 1966 12 67 3 1967 11 74 14 1968 29 68 15 1969 21 39 4 19 70! 8 9 2 TOTAL 263 1,142 151 D a t a o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 1970. S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 259. T a b l e 14 NUMBER OF SALES OF ACREAGE PROPERTY BY ZONING CLASSIFICATION Zoned Zoned Zoned Y e a r R e s i d e n t i a l C o m m e r c i a l O t h e r 1949 1 5 6 19 50 1 6 3 1951 - 1 3 1952 - 2 2 1953 2 2 3 1954 - 4 4 1955 1 3 4 1956 1 4 5 1957 2 3 3 1958 3 2 8 1959 - 5 6 1960 2 - 6 1961 1 2 4 1962 1 - 5 1963 1 - 8 1964 _ 1 4 1965 - 1 1 1966 3 4 1967 - 1 7 1968 3 2 5 1969 1 3 1 1970 x " - TOTAL 20 50 92 l-Data o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 1970 . S o u r c e ': A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 260. T a b l e 15 RELATIONSHIP OF LAST SALE TO (DEVELOPMENT (YEAR - I ) , FOR SUBDIVIDED LOTS Y e a r 1 = 0 1 = 1 1 = 2 1 = 3 I> 1949 4 7 4 2 1950 5 7 2 4 1 1951 1 4 8 4 2 1952 5 4 4 4 1 1953 7 14 _ 4 2 1954 6 3 3 2 5 1955 11 17 6 1 1956 20 10 2 _ 2 1957 6 12 3 1 2 1958 28 6 5 5 3 1959 26 20 4 1 3 1960 13 11 - _ 1961 24 9 1 „ 1962 23 4 - 1 4 1963 36 6 _ _ 5 1964 22 16 - 1 4 1965 31 18 8 1 1966 33 16 - 2 5 19 6 7 40 14 7 _ 1 1968 39 25 _ 2 3 1969 31 18 1 2 4 1970-L 10 7 1 1 3 TOTAL 421 238 • 59 38 50 D a t a o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 19 70. S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a 261. T a b l e 16 RELATIONSHIP OF LAST SALE TO (DEVELOPMENT YEAR - I ) , FOR ACREAGE PROPERTIES Y e a r 1=0 1=1 1=2 1=3 I>3 19 49 2 2 1 1950 2 .. _ 1 1951 1 1 2 1952 1 - 1 „ 1 1953 - - _ 1 1 1954 _ 1 1 1 1955 1 2 _ 1956 4 1 _ 1957 _ 1 _ 1 1 1958 - _ 19 59 2 1 1 _ _ 1960 - 1 _ 1 1 1961 1 - - 1 1962 1 1 _ _ 1963 1 _ _ 1964 1 1 1 _ 1965 - 1 _ _ 1966 2 1 - 2 1967 _ *- - 1 1968 3 . - _ 1969 1 - 1 _ 1 19 - 2 2 - - — — — — . — TOTAL 22 17 7 5 12 1 D a t a o n l y i n c l u d e s f i r s t s i x months o f 1970. S o u r c e : A n a l y s i s o f sample d a t a

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