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Sources of information utilized by British Columbia exporters to identify business opportunities in ASEAN… Carter, Michael T. 1989

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SOURCES OF INFORMATION UTILIZED BY BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPORTERS TO IDENTIFY BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN ASEAN: AN INTERVIEW STUDY By MICHAEL T. CARTER B.A., Simon Fraser University, 1977 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION) in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, International Business Programme) We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA July 1989 (c^Michael T. Carter, 1989 National Library Bibliotheque nationale of Canada du Canada Canadian Theses Service Service des theses- canadiennes Ottawa, Canada K1A 0N4 The author has granted an irrevocable non-exclusive licence allowing the National Library of Canada to reproduce, loan, distribute or sell copies of his/her thesis by any means and in any form or format, making this thesis available to interested persons. The author retains ownership of the copyright in his/her thesis. Neither the thesis nor substantial extracts from it may be printed or otherwise reproduced without his/her per-mission. L'auteur a accorde une licence irrevocable et non exclusive permettant a la Bibliotheque nationale du Canada de reproduire, pr§ter, distribuer ou vendre des copies de sa these de quelque maniere et sous quelque forme que ce soit pour mettre des exemplaires de cette these a la disposition des personnes interessees. L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur qui protege sa these. Ni la these ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci -ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement reproduits sans son autorisation. ISBN 0-315-55086-4 Canada In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. (Signature) Department of Commerce and Business Mministration The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada Date October 10, 1989 DE-6 (2/88) ABSTRACT This thesis reports on the results of an interview-based survey of 21 British Columbia exporters active in the ASEAN region. The primary focus of the research was on the sources of information utilized by these exporters in uncovering their initial and most recent business opportunities in the ASEAN market. The respondents in the study displayed a clear preference for sources of information which were external to their organizations rather than internal and for personal sources of information rather than non-personal or documentary sources (including electronic databases). The single most important source of information on potential business opportunities in ASEAN was the personal network of contacts developed by the firm's own personnel, particularly the firm's local man in the field (whether he be an agent, distributor, or joint venture partner). Contrary to the U.S., Swedish and European experience described elsewhere in the literature, the respondents in this study rarely entered the ASEAN market on the basis of an "unsolicited export order". Nor did they attach much importance to bankers, consultants, brokers, lawyers, or - iii -government officials as sources of potentially useful information on new business opportunities in ASEAN. Also surprising was the fairly common usage of a "piggyback" or "big brother" method of initial market entry into ASEAN. In most of these cases, the respondents acted as subcontractors to larger Canadian and American firms active in the ASEAN marketplace. Equally surprising was the conspicuous lack of success enjoyed by two B.C. export consortiums formed to penetrate the ASEAN market. Finally, there was very little evidence of any major shift in the type of information sources used, over time. The best sources of information remained "personal contacts" and "the local man in the field". There was, however, some movement away from the use of personal contacts established by the firm's senior executives while on a preliminary swing through the region and towards the use of personal contacts established by the firm's local representative. In addition, there was a growing trend towards the use of indigenous or "bumiputra" representatives in ASEAN and away from the use of Chinese or expatriate middlemen. - iv -TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Abstract 1 1 List of Tables List of Charts v i i i 1 X Part I. The Problem Introduction 1 Problem Statement 1 0 Background 1:L ASEAN's External Trade 2 3 ASEAN - Canada Trade 25 ASEAN - British Columbia Trade 28 Purpose 3 4 Significance of the Study 35 Methodology 3 8 Part II. Literature Review Introduction 4 2 Environmental Scanning 4 3 The Foreign Direct Investment Decision Process 6 2 Diffusion of Innovation and Information 74 Export Initiation Behaviour 8 6 Summary of Literature Review . . . 110 Part III. Design of the Study Expectations and Possible Hypotheses 116 Definition of Terms 12 0 Assumptions 127 - v -Scope and Limitations 1 3 4 P r o c e d u r e 1 3 9 S u b j e c t s 1 3 9 Variables 1 4 8 D a t a - g a t h e r i n g 1 4 9 Data Analysis 1 4 9 Part IV. Results R e s u l t s 1 5 3 Part V. Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions and Recommendations 2 04 Appendix 1. Letter of Invitation to Participate in Study 237 Appendix 2. Interview Questionnaire 238 Appendix 3. List of Potential Sources of Information on ASEAN Business Opportunities 240 Appendix 4. List of Potential Published Sources of Information on ASEAN 242 Footnotes 2 4 3 Bibliography 2 5 5 - vi -LIST OF TABLES TABLE E ^ 1 1. ASEAN Economic Indicators 1 4 2. Major ASEAN Export and Import Markets 21 3. Major ASEAN Export and Import Commodities 2 2 4. Canadian Trade with ASEAN (1988) 27 5. Total British Columbia Exports to ASEAN 3 0 6. B.C. Exports to Indonesia by Commodity 31 7. B.C. Exports to Thailand by Commodity 31 8. B.C. Exports to Malaysia by Commodity 32 9. B.C. Exports to Singapore by Commodity 3 2 10. B.C. Exports to the Philippines by Commodity . . . 32 11. Relative Importance of Information Sources . . . . 45 12. Most Important Sources 48 13. Relative Importance of Human Sources 49 14. Importance of Sources 57 15. Sources of Messages Resulting in Technical Ideas in Technological and Scientific Projects 76 16. Sources of Information 77 17. Sources Utilized by Scientists and Engineers . . . 79 18. Sources of Information (NASA) 8 0 19. Sources of Information Used in Successful Innovation in Developing Countries 82 20. Sources Used to Find Names of Prospects 84 21. Export Behaviour as an Adoption of Innovation Process 100 22. Importance of Selected Export Information Sources 102 23. Respondents by Sector 141 - vii -24. First Involvement in ASEAN 1 5 7 25. Source of Initial Information 161 26. Time to Secure First Sale 164 27. Most Recent Involvement in ASEAN 166 28. Source of Information Leading to Most Recent Involvement in ASEAN 17 0 29. Differences in Sources Over Time 173 30. Single Most Important Source of Information . . . 179 31. Ranking of Potential Sources 18 6 32. Published Sources Regularly Read 192 33. Hours/Week Spent Reading About ASEAN 195 34. Importance of ASEAN by Paired Comparisons . . . . 200 - viii -LIST OF CHARTS CHART 1. Annual Sales of Respondent Firms 144 2. Number of Employees (worldwide in all offices) . • 144 3. Age of Firm l i 5 4. Number of ASEAN Countries Active In or Have Sold To 1 4 5 5. Years Active in ASEAN 146 6. Sales to ASEAN (as % of Total Sales) 146 7. Corporate Position of Respondent 147 8. Respondent's Tenure with Firm 147 - ix -ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the invaluable help of my friends, Marilyn Wilson (who spent many long hours typing this manuscript) and Ross Curtis (who helped with the charts and graphics). I would also like to thank Dr. Bill Tomlinson, for his forbearance and patience in this seemingly interminable project, and Dr. Brian Graham and Ms. Gloria Sparks for keeping me in the program when most others would have long since despaired. Finally, I would like to thank my wife, Allison, for all her support and encouragement over the years. - 1 -PART I. THE PROBLEM Introduction; In 1982, Canada's exports to the Asia Pacific region surpassed, for the first time, its exports to the markets of Western Europe 1. Clearly, this was a major turning point in Canada's export orientation. Since that time, Canadians have been repeatedly warned to wake up and face, what Arthur Hara (Chairman of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada) has called, "the dawning of the Pacific Age". 2 The federal government, for its part, has stated on several occasions that by the year 2000, the Asia Pacific region will be home to 60% of the world's population, account for 50% of global production, and consume 40% of the world's productive output. 3 In addition/ Canadians have been told that by the turn of the century Japan will have achieved the world's highest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the newly industrializing economies (NIEs) of Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore will have attained a standard of living comparable to many of the countries of Western Europe. Not surprisingly, therefore, Canadian federal and provincial politicians have literally tripped over each other (both at home and abroad) in their rush to "lead a mission" to this - 2 -newly emerging hotbed of economic activity. Of particular interest to them have been the markets of Southeast Asia. Former International Trade Minister, James Kelleher, for example, at the end of a two-week, six country export swing raved about " . . . the tremendous potential for Canadian business in the ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] area and throughout the Pacific Rim". 4 British Columbia Minister of International Business and Immigration, the Honourable John Jansen, while in Singapore to open a new provincial trade office said, "With a population of nearly 3 00 million in Southeast Asia, it is easy to understand why our government believes there are many more opportunities worth pursuing". 5 That local civic politicians would eventually feel compelled to try and carve out a niche for themselves in the Pacific Rim is not, therefore, particularly surprising. Their commitment to the region, however, seems to vary depending upon which side of the council chamber they sit on. In March of 1985, for example, then-alderman Gordon Campbell, in commenting upon one of Mayor Mike Harcourt's many trade missions to Southeast Asia said, "Sometimes, I get the feeling that the Pacific Rim is the new Holy Grail. It's an easy thing to grab on to." 6 Less than three years later, newly-elected Mayor Gordon Campbell could be found leading his own economic mission to Southeast Asia. Mercifully, his earlier comments were not recalled for him by the accompanying press. - 3 -Despite the rather recent fascination with the Asia Pacific region at the national level, it should be recognized that the "Pacific Age" dawned much earlier for British Columbia than for the rest of Canada. The Pacific Rim (including Australia and New Zealand) has been an important British Columbia export market for at least the last 25 years. In 19 62, for example, the Pacific Rim accounted for more than 3 0.5% of total British Columbia exports (as compared to the 44.6% of provincial exports which went to the United States, and the 18.7% which went to Western Europe). With the recent emergence of the NIEs like Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore (and the opening up of China), British Columbia exports to the Pacific Rim have grown to account for 38% of total provincial exports in 1988 (more than twice the current level of provincial exports to the European Community). It is also worth noting that the level of British Columbia's Pacific Rim export orientation is about three times the overall Canadian average of 12% - 13%. British Columbia's trade with the Pacific Rim has traditionally focussed on Japan, China, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand. Over the last decade, however, there has been a tremendous growth in the level of trade between British Columbia and the ASEAN countries of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and the - 4 -Philippines. In 1978, for example, British Columbia's exports to the ASEAN region amounted to only $85.7 million. By 1988, this total had grown to over $333.0 million, with much of the growth occurring in the last five years. Interestingly enough, British Columbia regularly accounts for up to 3 0% of total Canadian exports to the ASEAN region. 8 The interest of British Columbia exporters in the ASEAN region has been spurred on by several factors. First of all, despite the occasional setbacks suffered as a result of volatile world commodity prices, the ASEAN economies have enjoyed some of the fastest economic growth rates in the world. For example, over the period 1965-1980, their average annual rate of increase in real GDP growth ranged from a low of 5.9% in the Philippines to a high of 10.2% in Singapore. Over the same period of time, the industrialized economies of the West grew at an average annual rate of only 3.7%. This difference in economic growth rates continued over the period 1980-1985. The ASEAN economies (with the exception of the Philippines, which actually experienced a negative rate of growth) grew at an average annual rate of 3.5% to 6.5%. By comparison, the average annual rate of growth for the industrialized economies of the West was only 2.3% and for "middle income" developing economies it was only 1.7%. 9 Since 1985, the ASEAN economies of Malaysia, - 5 -Thailand and Singapore, in particular, have literally taken off, achieving real average annual growth rates, in 1988, of 8.5%, 10.3% and 11.0%, respectively. Even the formerly destitute economy of the Philippines has managed to achieve o 10 a real average annual growth rate of 6.7%. Secondly, the ASEAN countries represent a rapidly growing consumer market. According to the most recent national estimates, the population of the ASEAN group now exceeds 298 million. While the ASEAN economies display, an admittedly, skewed income distribution (with the top 2 0% of the population receiving, on average, 50% - 60% of total national income) they are becoming increasingly important import markets in their own right. In 1987, for example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculated total ASEAN imports to be worth U.S. $76.7 billion. 1 1 Furthermore, these imports are growing at about two to three times the rate of other developing country imports due, in no small part, to the generally healthier nature of the ASEAN 12 economies. Thirdly, ASEAN imports are largely comprised of machinery, equipment and other manufactured end products. These higher value-added manufactures account for between 57% and 74% of total ASEAN imports. 1 3 To the developed economies of the West, therefore, the ASEAN region represents a highly - 6 -d e s i r a b l e market f o r p r e c i s e l y t h e k i n d of goods and s e r v i c e s t h e y w i s h t o produce and e x p o r t . On t h e o t h e r hand, g i v e n t h e v e r y s i g n i f i c a n t n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e endowments of ASEAN (and B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s acknowledged e x p e r t i s e i n t h e e x t r a c t i o n and p r o c e s s i n g of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s ) one might e x p e c t t o see a m u t u a l l y b e n e f i c i a l exchange of h i g h e r v a l u e - a d d e d r e s o u r c e o r i e n t e d goods and s e r v i c e s t a k i n g p l a c e between t h e s e two r e g i o n s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h i s economic c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y i s s t i l l more t h e o r e t i c a l t h a n r e a l and much of t h e t r a d e which does t a k e p l a c e seems t o be b a s e d , i n s t e a d , upon t h e exchange of lower v a l u e - a d d e d raw and s e m i - p r o c e s s e d n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e commodit ies . P a r t i c u l a r l y p u z z l i n g , t h e r e f o r e , i s t h e q u e s t i o n of why, d e s p i t e t h e o b v i o u s a t t r a c t i o n s of t h e ASEAN r e g i o n and t h e i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t on t h e p a r t of B r i t i s h Columbian and C a n a d i a n e x p o r t e r s , does Canada s t i l l remain o n l y a m a r g i n a l s u p p l i e r of manufactured end p r o d u c t s t o t h i s market? I n 1 9 8 7 , f o r example, d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t Canada e x p o r t e d a lmost $ 1 . 0 b i l l i o n worth of goods t o ASEAN, we s t i l l managed t o s u p p l y o n l y about 1% of t h e g r o u p ' s t o t a l import r e q u i r e m e n t s . 1 4 C a n a d i a n s , i t would appear , a r e q u i t e s i m p l y overshadowed as s u p p l i e r s t o t h e ASEAN market by t h e J a p a n e s e , t h e Americans and t h e Europeans. I n 1 9 8 7 , f o r example, t h e Japanese exported U . S . $ 6 . 1 b i l l i o n t o - 7 -S i n g a p o r e a l o n e (more t h a n s i x t i m e s C a n a d a ' s t o t a l e x p o r t s t o t h e whole ASEAN g r o u p ) . C e r t a i n l y , ASEAN i s a p h y s i c a l l y remote and, t h e r e f o r e , d i f f i c u l t market f o r B r i t i s h Columbian f i r m s t o t r y and a c c e s s . Furthermore, d e s p i t e t h e p o p u l a r usage of t h e term ASEAN, t h e s i x c o u n t r y grouping i s a n y t h i n g b u t a s i n g l e homogeneous market . On t h e c o n t r a r y , i t i s , a t l e a s t , s i x q u i t e d i s t i n c t markets each w i t h i t s own economic, c u l t u r a l , l i n g u i s t i c and r a c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . W h i l e t h e s e f a c t o r s make i t d i f f i c u l t t o p e n e t r a t e t h e ASEAN m a r k e t , and e x p e n s i v e t o m a i n t a i n a p r e s e n c e once e s t a b l i s h e d t h e r e , many o t h e r c o u n t r i e s f a c e t h e s e same d i f f i c u l t i e s and s t i l l , somehow, manage t o c o n c l u d e a g r e a t d e a l more b u s i n e s s t h a n Canada. What t h e n , a c c o u n t s f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n performance l e v e l ? I f one s e t s a s i d e , f o r t h e moment, t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t C a n a d i a n goods and s e r v i c e s may not be p r i c e or q u a l i t y c o m p e t i t i v e , t h e n one must f a c e t h e a l t e r n a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n t h a t perhaps Canadian and B r i t i s h Columbian e x p o r t e r s o p e r a t e under some s o r t of i n f o r m a t i o n a l d i s a d v a n t a g e i n t h e ASEAN market. Are t h e y , f o r example, u n a b l e t o a c h i e v e a h i g h e r l e v e l of export s a l e s i n ASEAN s i m p l y because t h e y l a c k a c c u r a t e and t i m e l y i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l s a l e s o p p o r t u n i t i e s ? Does Canada have "weak systems f o r b r i n g i n g - 8 -i n f o r m a t i o n back from o u t s i d e " , 1 6 a s t h e former f e d e r a l S c i e n c e M i n i s t e r , Tom S i d d o n , h a s s u g g e s t e d ? I s " t h e h i g h c o s t of o b t a i n i n g i n f o r m a t i o n . . . a b a r r i e r t o i n v e s t m e n t [and t r a d e ] i n l e s s developed c o u n t r i e s " , 1 7 a s Y a i r A h a r o n i has w r i t t e n ? I s i t t r u e , as t h e Conference Board o f Canada h a s s u g g e s t e d " t h a t t h e major h i n d r a n c e s t o e s t a b l i s h i n g a C a n a d i a n p r e s e n c e i n A s i a a r e t h e C a n a d i a n companies ' l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n and t h e i r i n a b i l i t y t o u s e t h e a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n p r o p e r l y " . 1 8 C e r t a i n l y , t h e r e i s a growing body of e v i d e n c e t o s u g g e s t t h a t such an i n f o r m a t i o n a l d i s a d v a n t a g e may, i n f a c t , be t r u e . I n t u r n , t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y r a i s e s t h e even more fundamental q u e s t i o n of how B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s a c t u a l l y o b t a i n t h e i r i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN? What s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n do t h e y u s e ? Are t h e s e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n p e r s o n a l or documentary? Are t h e y i n s i d e or o u t s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n ? Have t h e s e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n changed over t i m e ? Do t h e s e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n v a r y by c o u n t r y ? Do t h e y v a r y by s e c t o r ? U l t i m a t e l y , i t i s t h e s e a r c h f o r answers t o t h e s e p a r t i c u l a r q u e s t i o n s which l i e s a t t h e h e a r t of t h i s t h e s i s . The t h e s i s , i t s e l f , i s d i v i d e d i n t o f i v e p a r t s . P a r t I o u t l i n e s t h e n a t u r e of t h e problem, s e t s i t i n t h e c o n t e x t of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s c u r r e n t t r a d e f lows w i t h ASEAN, and d e s c r i b e s t h e methodology used i n t h i s s t u d y . P a r t I I - 9 -r e v i e w s t h e l i t e r a t u r e from a number of r e l e v a n t a r e a s i n c l u d i n g t h e s c a n n i n g of t h e b u s i n e s s e n v i r o n m e n t , t h e f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n , t h e d i f f u s i o n of i n n o v a t i o n and i n f o r m a t i o n , and f i n a l l y t h e i n i t i a t i o n of e x p o r t b e h a v i o u r . P a r t I I I d i s c u s s e s t h e d e s i g n of t h e i n t e r v i e w s u r v e y , r e v i e w s some of t h e e x p e c t e d r e s u l t s , d e f i n e s a few of t h e more u n u s u a l terms e n c o u n t e r e d , and acknowledges t h e scope and l i m i t a t i o n s of t h e s t u d y . P a r t I V r e v i e w s t h e a c t u a l r e s u l t s of t h e i n t e r v i e w s u r v e y and P a r t V p r e s e n t s t h e c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendations. - 10 -Problem Statement: I f one a c c e p t s t h e p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t ASEAN i s an a r e a worthy of a t t e n t i o n from B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s , t h e n one i s i m m e d i a t e l y c o n f r o n t e d w i t h t h e problem of how t h e s e e x p o r t e r s go about i d e n t i f y i n g and u n c o v e r i n g b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n a r e g i o n which l i e s h a l f way around t h e w o r l d . I n a d d i t i o n , one might r e a s o n a b l y a s k what a r e t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n on ASEAN a v a i l a b l e t o t h e B . C . e x p o r t e r ? Which s o u r c e s have proven t o be t h e most u s e f u l i n t h e p a s t and w i l l t h e s e s o u r c e s c o n t i n u e t o be t h e most u s e f u l i n t h e f u t u r e ? Has t h e importance of t h e s e s o u r c e s v a r i e d over t i m e ? Are t h e s e s o u r c e s p e r s o n a l , p u b l i s h e d or e l e c t r o n i c ? Do B . C . e x p o r t e r s u t i l i z e t h e same s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n as t h e i r major i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t o r s ? F i n a l l y , what l e s s o n s can new or p o t e n t i a l e x p o r t e r s l e a r n from a -study of t h e i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s u t i l i z e d by s u c c e s s f u l B . C . e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN? I t i s p r e c i s e l y t h e s e q u e s t i o n s which occupy the c e n t r a l f o c u s of t h i s t h e s i s . - 11 -Background: I n a m a s s i v e 1986 s u r v e y of 1 0 , 0 0 0 men and women i n 1 0 c o u n t r i e s (Japan, t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , Canada, B r i t a i n , F r a n c e , West Germany, I t a l y , A u s t r a l i a , B r a z i l and South K o r e a ) , t h e J a p a n e s e newspaper company Nihon K e i z a i Shimbun a s k e d , "What r e g i o n w i l l have t h e f a s t e s t economic growth i n t h e n e x t 25 y e a r s ? " . The l a r g e s t s i n g l e r e s p o n s e ( g i v e n by over 50% of t h e i n t e r v i e w e e s ) was " S o u t h e a s t W h i l e t h e J a p a n e s e a r e c l e a r l y not t h e o n l y p e o p l e t r u m p e t i n g t h e promise of s o u t h e a s t A s i a , t h e y a r e c e r t a i n l y among t h e most v o c a l . For example, Y o s h i o Y o k a t a , P r e s i d e n t of Y a m a i c h i S e c u r i t i e s Company L t d . , of J a p a n , i n an i n t e r v i e w w i t h F o r t u n e Magazine was quoted a s s a y i n g about ASEAN t h a t "There a r e p r o b a b l y more growth o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h a t p a r t of t h e world t h a n any o t h e r a r e a . " 2 0 By comparison, most Europeans woke up r a t h e r b e l a t e d l y t o t h e modern promise of t h e ASEAN r e g i o n ( d e s p i t e an a lmost 4 00 y e a r p r e s e n c e by t h e Dutch and Portuguese i n t h e " E a s t I n d i e s " ) . European Community Commissioner C l a u d e Cheysson, i n commenting upon t h e s t a r t of t h e l o n g - d e l a y e d EC-ASEAN economic summit i n October of 1 9 8 5 , s a i d "The meeting i s unprecedented . . . i t shows how much importance we a t t a c h t o our economic r e l a t i o n s w i t h ASEAN . . . t h e Community - 12 -lags far behind its Japanese and American rivals in p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n ASEAN's new s e c t o r s of economic a c t i v i t y . 21 T h i s i s an e x t r e m e l y worry ing t r e n d . " Canada, i t might be argued, h a s been even s l o w e r t o r e c o g n i z e t h e p o t e n t i a l of t h e ASEAN r e g i o n ( d e s p i t e t h e long e s t a b l i s h e d p r e s e n c e i n t h a t market of s u c h f a m i l i a r C a n a d i a n m u l t i n a t i o n a l s as A l c a n , INCO and t h e BATA Shoe Company). However, by t h e end of 1 9 8 7 , t h e C a n a d i a n f e d e r a l government was c l a i m i n g t h a t "we have a l l o c a t e d more government f u n d i n g t o t h e development of Canada-ASEAN economic and commercial r e l a t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g t h e p r o v i s i o n of f u n d i n g s p e c i f i c a l l y t a r g e t e d t o i n c r e a s i n g ASEAN e x p o r t s 2 2 t o Canada, t h a n we have t o any o t h e r r e g i o n of t h e w o r l d . " Whi le i t i s v i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e t o t e l l whether or not t h i s f u n d i n g commitment a c t u a l l y l e a d t o an i n c r e a s e i n t h e l e v e l of C a n a d i a n e x p o r t s t o t h e ASEAN r e g i o n or whether i t was merely v e r y w e l l t imed t o c o i n c i d e w i t h t h e g e n e r a l i n c r e a s e which was o c c u r r i n g anyways, t o t a l 1988 C a n a d i a n e x p o r t s t o ASEAN d i d , i n f a c t , r i s e by 2 7 . 3 % over t h e 1987 l e v e l . I n l i g h t of t h e f a i r l y widespread agreement on t h e f u t u r e importance of t h e ASEAN r e g i o n , i t i s perhaps worthwhi le b r i e f l y r e v i e w i n g t h e r e c e n t economic performance of t h e group and i t s t r a d i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h Canada and B r i t i s h Columbia. - 13 -As T a b l e 1 , c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s , t h e ASEAN group encompasses a t l e a s t f i v e q u i t e d i s t i n c t l e v e l s of economic development. At one extreme, l i e s t i n y o i l - r i c h B r u n e i . With a p o p u l a t i o n of l e s s t h a n 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 , B r u n e i can e a s i l y a f f o r d t o p r o v i d e f o r v i r t u a l l y a l l m a t e r i a l , e d u c a t i o n a l and h e a l t h needs of i t s c i t i z e n s ( p r o v i d e d t h a t t h e y a r e bona f i d e "bumiputras" or n a t i v e s o n s ) . At c u r r e n t r a t e s of p r o d u c t i o n , however, B r u n e i ' s o i l r e s e r v e s a r e not e x p e c t e d t o l a s t much beyond 4 0 - 5 0 y e a r s and t h e l o n g - t e r m q u e s t i o n f a c i n g B r u n e i i s what w i l l happen t o t h e c o u n t r y when i t can no l o n g e r a f f o r d t o export crude o i l and import n e a r l y e v e r y t h i n g e l s e ? At t h e o t h e r end of t h e spectrum l i e s t h e P h i l i p p i n e s , which i s o n l y j u s t b e g i n n i n g t o r e c o v e r from t h e r a v a g e s of "crony c a p i t a l i s m " under former P r e s i d e n t F e r d i n a n d Marcos. A l t h o u g h b l e s s e d w i t h a generous endowment of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and a f a i r l y w e l l e d u c a t e d , l i t e r a t e urban p o p u l a t i o n , t h e P h i l i p p i n e s f a c e s a number of d a u n t i n g c h a l l e n g e s i f i t i s t o ever r e - a t t a i n a n y t h i n g l i k e i t s former economic s t a t u r e i n s o u t h e a s t A s i a . Foremost among t h e s e c h a l l e n g e s , i s t h e q u e s t i o n of p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y . A problem which i s not e x c l u s i v e l y r e s t r i c t e d t o t h e v a r i o u s f e u d i n g f a c t i o n s of t h e s e m i - d e m o c r a t i c r i g h t . A l s o demanding a t t e n t i o n i s the l o n g - s i m m e r i n g r e v o l t of t h e T a b l e 1 . ASEAN Economic I n d i c a t o r s ( a l l f i g u r e s i n $ U . S . ) Country P o p u l a t i o n m i l l i o n s (1987) GDP m i l l i o n s (1987) GDP p e r c a p i t a ( 1987) Average Annual GDP Growth ( 1 9 6 5 - 8 0 ) Average Annual GDP Growth ( 1 9 8 0 - 8 5 ) Average Annual GDP Growth (1988) I n f l a t i o n R a t e (1988) Unemploy-ment Rate (1988) Brunei S ingapore M a l a y s i a T h a i l a n d P h i l i p p i n e s I n d o n e s i a 0 . 2 2 2 . 6 1 16 . 56 53 . 60 5 7 . 3 6 1 6 6 . 9 4 $ 3 , 7 4 0 $ 1 9 , 8 9 5 $ 3 0 , 2 4 3 $ 4 7 , 1 3 6 $ 3 4 , 5 9 4 $ 7 5 , 2 3 1 $ 1 7 , 0 0 0 $ 7 , 6 2 2 $ 1 , 8 2 6 $879 $603 $450 n / a 1 0 . 2 % 7 .3% 7 . 4 % 5 . 9% 7 . 9 % 3 . 9% 6 . 5 % 5 . 5 % 5 . 1 % - 0 . 5 % 3 . 5% 2 . 0% 1 1 . 0% 8 . 5 % 1 0 . 3% 6 . 7 % 4 . 9% 1 . 7 % 1 . 6 % 2 . 5% 5 . 5 % 8 . 8% 9 . 3% n / a 5 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 6 . 5 % 9 . 6% 18 . 0% Note: P o p u l a t i o n , GDP and GDP per c a p i t a f i g u r e s f o r I n d o n e s i a a r e 1986 d a t a . S o u r c e s : IMF, I n t e r n a t i o n a l F i n a n c i a l S t a t i s t i c s Yearbook, 1 9 8 8 . F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, v a r i o u s i s s u e s , 1 9 8 8 . World Bank, World Development R e p o r t , 1 9 8 7 . Trade P o l i c y Branch, B r i t i s h Columbia M i n i s t r y of I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s and I m m i g r a t i o n , ASEAN F a c t S h e e t s , 1988. - 15 -communist New P e o p l e ' s Army (NPA) which now c o n t r o l s l a r g e a r e a s of t h e o u t e r i s l a n d s of t h e P h i l i p p i n e s . On t h e economic f r o n t , t h e P h i l i p p i n e s h a s long been dependent on t h e e x p o r t of raw and s e m i - p r o c e s s e d s u g a r and coconut p r o d u c t s . Both commodit ies, however, have been s u f f e r i n g from low world p r i c e s and g r o s s economic mismanagement a t home a s t h e r e s u l t of t h e i l l - c o n c e i v e d monopol ies handed out under former P r e s i d e n t Marcos. C u t t i n g a c r o s s b o t h economic and p o l i t i c a l f r o n t s i s t h e o v e r r i d i n g q u e s t i o n of l a n d reform. C o n s i d e r e d e s s e n t i a l i n t h e s t r u g g l e t o r e s o l v e t h e communist i n s u r r e c t i o n , i t i s b e i n g f i e r c e l y r e s i s t e d by t h e e s t a b l i s h e d h a c i e n d a and p l a n t a t i o n owners. F u r t h e r compounding an a l r e a d y d i f f i c u l t s i t u a t i o n i s t h e a b j e c t p o v e r t y of most F i l i p i n o farmers and l a b o u r e r s which p r e v e n t s them, even w i t h l a n d reform, from s h i f t i n g t o a l t e r n a t e and more l u c r a t i v e c a s h c r o p s . Between t h e s e two extremes, l i e s modern i n d u s t r i a l i z e d S i n g a p o r e , now f i r m l y e s t a b l i s h e d among t h e r a n k s of t h e upper m i d d l e - i n c o m e group of n a t i o n s . D i s p l a y i n g t h e most open and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y - o r i e n t e d of t h e ASEAN economies, S ingapore has made tremendous s t r i d e s from t h e d a r k d a y s of i t s unceremonious e x p u l s i o n from t h e M a l a y s i a n F e d e r a t i o n i n 1965 and t h e B r i t i s h n a v a l p u l l o u t i n 1 9 6 8 . C o m p l e t e l y l a c k i n g i n any n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s o t h e r t h a n i t s e x t r e m e l y hardworking, p r e d o m i n a n t l y C h i n e s e , p o p u l a t i o n , S i n g a p o r e - 16 -h a s d e t e r m i n e d l y marched up-market from an a s s e m b l e r of s i m p l e consumer p r o d u c t s f o r f o r e i g n m u l t i n a t i o n a l s t o a major o i l and p e t r o c h e m i c a l r e f i n i n g c e n t r e a s w e l l a s a major s h i p b u i l d i n g and s h i p - r e p a i r i n g c e n t r e . Not s a t i s f i e d w i t h s u c h a s t a t u s , S i n g a p o r e promulgated a f u r t h e r march u p - m a r k e t i n 1979 ( p r i m a r i l y through a s e r i e s of mandatory 10% a n n u a l wage i n c r e a s e s ) towards a p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l , k n o w l e d g e - i n t e n s i v e , h i g h - t e c h n o l o g y and s e r v i c e economy. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h i s f i n a l t r a n s i t i o n was i n t e r r u p t e d by a m a s s i v e p r o p e r t y market c r a s h and a g l o b a l r e c e s s i o n w h i c h , because of S i n g a p o r e ' s heavy dependance on i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e , had a v e r y s e r i o u s impact on t h e economy of t h e i s l a n d r e p u b l i c . More r e c e n t l y , however, S i n g a p o r e h a s bounced back and a t t a i n e d double d i g i t l e v e l s of growth, p r i m a r i l y a s t h e r e s u l t of i n c r e a s e d i n t e r n a l demand, domest ic a u s t e r i t y measures and p r o d u c t i v i t y i n c r e a s e s . S i g n i f i c a n t l y , S ingapore has a l s o abandoned i t s "wage-d r i v e n " march u p - m a r k e t , a t l e a s t f o r t h e t i m e b e i n g . The o t h e r t h r e e ASEAN member s t a t e s , M a l a y s i a , I n d o n e s i a and T h a i l a n d a r e a l l r e l a t i v e l y wel l -endowed w i t h n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s (a l though T h a i l a n d h a s exhausted i t s f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s much more q u i c k l y t h a n t h e o t h e r two). I n d o n e s i a , c l e a r l y f a c e s t h e g r e a t e s t c h a l l e n g e s i n t h e y e a r s ahead because of i t s r a p i d l y growing p o p u l a t i o n which produces more t h a n 2 m i l l i o n new l a b o u r f o r c e e n t r a n t s a n n u a l l y . - 17 -T r a d i t i o n a l l y dependent on o i l e x p o r t s f o r up t o 80% of i t s f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s , I n d o n e s i a h a s r e c e n t l y been v e r y s u c c e s s f u l i n d i v e r s i f y i n g i t s e x p o r t p r o f i l e . S i g n i f i c a n t e x p o r t i n c r e a s e s have t a k e n p l a c e i n t e x t i l e s and c l o t h i n g , plywood and lumber ( p r i m a r i l y as t h e r e s u l t of a ban on t h e e x p o r t of raw l o g s ) , and p l a n t a t i o n c r o p s ( s u c h a s c o c o a , c o f f e e , rubber and palm o i l ) . Combined w i t h t h e r e l a t i v e l y lower p r i c e of o i l over t h e l a s t few y e a r s , n o n - o i l e x p o r t s have now grown t o r e p l a c e petroleum p r o d u c t s as t h e c o u n t r y ' s l e a d i n g e x p o r t revenue e a r n e r . S t i l l , I n d o n e s i a ' s economic f u t u r e remains u n c e r t a i n . I t ' s economy i s one of t h e most i n w a r d - l o o k i n g of t h e ASEAN group and many o f i t s p r o d u c e r s have long been p r o t e c t e d by a wide v a r i e t y of t a r i f f and n o n - t a r i f f b a r r i e r s . With a p o p u l a t i o n r a p i d l y approaching 200 m i l l i o n , i t can perhaps a f f o r d t o i s o l a t e i t s e l f from t h e c o m p e t i t i o n of t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l m a r k e t p l a c e a l i t t l e b i t l o n g e r , but t h e warning s i g n s a r e a l r e a d y becoming e v i d e n t . I n f l a t i o n c o n t i n u e s t o be h i g h by r e g i o n a l s t a n d a r d s , as does unemployment (not t o mention t h e s i g n i f i c a n t underemployment problem). Development (and t h e b u l k of t h e p o p u l a t i o n ) i s s t i l l too h e a v i l y c o n c e n t r a t e d on J a v a and t h e government's t r a n s m i g r a t i o n program (which attempts t o s h i f t people and r e s o u r c e s t o t h e o u t e r i s l a n d s ) h a s met w i t h l i m i t e d s u c c e s s . - 18 -M a l a y s i a , on t h e o t h e r hand, h a s s u c c e s s f u l l y weathered t h e l a s t g l o b a l r e c e s s i o n and emerged w i t h a f a i r l y w e l l d i v e r s i f i e d economy a l t h o u g h i t too remains h e a v i l y dependent on o i l and t r o p i c a l commodity e x p o r t s ( s u c h a s l o g s , t i m b e r , rubber and palm o i l ) . U n l i k e I n d o n e s i a , however, M a l a y s i a has a s i g n i f i c a n t e l e c t r o n i c s assembly s e c t o r c l u s t e r e d around t h e f r e e t r a d e zones of Penang. Among t h e m u l t i n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s t a k i n g advantage of t h e low-wage, h i g h l y s k i l l e d workforce l o c a t e d t h e r e , i s C a n a d a ' s own Northern Telecom. Other s e c t o r s of t h e M a l a y s i a n economy which a r e showing s i g n s of s i g n i f i c a n t e x p o r t growth i n c l u d e t e x t i l e s and c l o t h i n g , canned and f r e s h seafood and rubber p r o d u c t s . A l t h o u g h , c l e a r l y , a more open economy t h a n e i t h e r B r u n e i or I n d o n e s i a , M a l a y s i a h a s experimented w i t h a form of l e g i s l a t e d economic n a t i o n a l i s m under i t s New Economic P o l i c y (NEP). Announced i n 1 9 7 0 , w i t h t h e e x p r e s s e d i n t e n t i o n of e l i m i n a t i n g t h e l a s t l i n k a g e s between r a c e and p o v e r t y , t h e NEP s e t a s e r i e s of e q u i t y t a r g e t s t o be a c h i e v e d by 1 9 9 0 . From a low of l e s s t h a n 1 % i n 1 9 7 0 , the economic s h a r e of "bumiputra" M a l a y s i a n s ( l i t e r a l l y Malay "sons of t h e s o i l " ) was s c h e d u l e d t o i n c r e a s e t o 3 0% by 199 0. Non-bumiputra M a l a y s i a n s ( p r i m a r i l y C h i n e s e and I n d i a n s ) were, i n t u r n , s c h e d u l e d t o h o l d 3 0%, w h i l e f o r e i g n h o l d i n g s were s e t t o d e c r e a s e t o 40%. The u n d e r l y i n g o b j e c t i v e of t h e NEP was t o ensure m a j o r i t y M a l a y s i a n c o n t r o l of t h e e c o n o m i c a l l y - 19 -p r o d u c t i v e a s s e t s o f t h e c o u n t r y . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n h a s not worked a s w e l l a s had been hoped. The b u m i p u t r a s h a r e o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s a s s e t s h a s o n l y i n c r e a s e d t o about h a l f t h e t a r g e t e d l e v e l , w h i l e t h e non -bumiputra M a l a y s i a n s h a r e (which was s c h e d u l e d t o f a l l ) has a c t u a l l y i n c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y . Much o f t h e growth i n b o t h t h e s e groups h a s come a t t h e expense o f t h e f o r e i g n s e c t o r . M a l a y s i a i s now i n t h e m i d s t of r e - e x a m i n i n g t h e NEP and d e c i d i n g what form, i f any, i t s h o u l d t a k e i n t h e p o s t - 1 9 9 0 p e r i o d . F i n a l l y , t h e r e i s T h a i l a n d , long o v e r l o o k e d i n t h e u s u a l d i s c u s s i o n s of ASEAN economic a c t i v i t y , b u t c l e a r l y a p p r o a c h i n g t h e p o s i t i o n o f economic t a k e - o f f . Through a happy c o i n c i d e n c e of p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y , a w e l l d i v e r s i f i e d e x p o r t b a s e , r e c o v e r i n g commodity p r i c e s , s t r o n g e x t e r n a l demand and a s t a b i l i z a t i o n of o i l p r i c e s , T h a i l a n d has e n j o y e d a booming economy over t h e l a s t 3 or 4 y e a r s . T r a d i t i o n a l l y one o f t h e w o r l d ' s l a r g e s t e x p o r t e r s o f r i c e , T h a i l a n d has d i v e r s i f i e d i t s e x p o r t p r o f i l e and i s now c o n s i d e r e d a major f o r c e i n canned p i n e a p p l e and s e a f o o d e x p o r t s , t e x t i l e s and c l o t h i n g , t a p i o c a , r u b b e r , i n t e g r a t e d c i r c u i t s , gems and j e w e l l e r y . M a s s i v e amounts o f f o r e i g n c a p i t a l a r e p o u r i n g i n t o T h a i l a n d ( p r i m a r i l y from J a p a n and t h e U . S . , b u t a l s o from Europe, Hong Kong, Taiwan and K o r e a ) . The c o u n t r y i s undergoing a b u i l d i n g boom i n - 2 0 -e v e r y t h i n g from f a c t o r i e s t o condominiums and from shrimp farms t o h o t e l s . As a r e s u l t , t h e c o u n t r y ' s i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i s under c o n s i d e r a b l e s t r a i n and i n f l a t i o n i s , once a g a i n , s t a r t i n g t o r i s e . On t h e p o s i t i v e s i d e , t h e T h a i w o r k f o r c e w h i l e h i g h l y s k i l l e d i s s t i l l r e l a t i v e l y i n e x p e n s i v e . With m a n u f a c t u r i n g and t o u r i s m booming, t h e economy i s e x p e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e growing a t 7 - 9 % p e r annum f o r a t l e a s t t h e n e x t c o u p l e of y e a r s . A more e x h a u s t i v e a n a l y s i s of t h e ASEAN economies i s , c l e a r l y , beyond t h e scope of t h i s p a p e r . Our purpose h e r e has s i m p l y been t o i n d i c a t e t h e g e n e r a l l y dynamic n a t u r e of t h e r e g i o n ' s economies. F o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e a r e a number of e x c e l l e n t a n a l y s e s of ASEAN economic growth t o which t h e 2 3 r e a d e r can r e f e r , i f so i n c l i n e d . Of i n t e r e s t t o our l i n e of i n q u i r y i s t h e o v e r a l l p a t t e r n of ASEAN t r a d e and, i n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e t r a d e between ASEAN and Canada, and ASEAN and B r i t i s h Columbia. T a b l e 2 , d e t a i l s ASEAN'S major export and import m a r k e t s , w h i l e T a b l e 3 h i g h l i g h t s ASEAN'S major export and import commodit ies . T a b l e 2 . Major ASEAN E x p o r t and Import Markets Country-T o t a l 1987 E x p o r t s ($US m i l l i o n s ) Major E x p o r t Markets % of T o t a l E x p o r t s T o t a l 1987 Imports ($US m i l l i o n s ) Major Import Markets % of T o t a l Imports B r u n e i $ 1 , 7 9 6 1. J a p a n 60.4% $ 1 , 2 9 7 1. U . K . 2 8 . 7 % 2 . T h a i l a n d 1 2 . 3 % 2 . S i n g a p o r e 2 8 . 5 % 3 . Korea 1 0 . 2 % 3 . M a l a y s i a 7 . 9 % S ingapore $ 2 8 , 6 9 2 1. USA 24 . 0% $ 3 5 , 5 5 9 1. J a p a n 2 0 . 5 % 2 . M a l a y s i a 1 4 . 2 % 2 . USA 1 4 . 7 % 3 . J a p a n 9 . 1 % 3 . M a l a y s i a 1 3 . 8 % M a l a y s i a $ 1 7 , 9 3 9 1. J a p a n 1 9 . 5 % $ 1 2 , 7 0 0 1. J a p a n 2 1 . 6 % 2 . S i n g a p o r e 1 8 . 2 % 2 . USA 1 8 . 7 % 3 . USA 1 6 . 6 % 3 . S i n g a p o r e 1 4 . 7 % T h a i l a n d $ 1 1 , 7 2 7 1. USA 1 8 . 8 % $ 1 2 , 9 6 4 1. J a p a n 2 5 . 9 % 2 . J a p a n 14 .7% 2 . USA 1 2 . 5 % 3 . S i n g a p o r e 9 . 1 % 3 . S i n g a p o r e 7 . 8 % P h i l i p p i n e s $ 5 , 6 4 9 1. USA 3 6 . 5 % $ 7 , 1 4 4 1. USA 2 1 . 5% 2 . J a p a n 1 7 . 4 % 2 . J a p a n 1 6 . 1 % 3 . N e t h e r l a n d s 5 . 5 % 3 . Kuwait 4 . 6 % I n d o n e s i a $ 1 6 , 5 4 8 1. J a p a n 43 .8% $ 1 0 , 2 3 4 1. J a p a n 3 3 . 4 % 2 . USA 2 0 . 2 % 2 . USA 9 . 4 % 3 . S i n g a p o r e 6 . 1 % 3 . W.Germany 7 . 0 % S o u r c e s : IMF, D i r e c t i o n of Trade S t a t i s t i c s , 1988 Yearbook. T a b l e 3. Major ASEAN Export and Import Commodities Country Major Export Commodities % of T o t a l E x p o r t s Major Import Commodities % of T o t a l Imports Brunei 1. Crude petroleum 5 5 . 2 % 1. Food & l i v e a n i m a l s 1 4 . 5 % 2 . L i q u i f i e d N a t u r a l Gas 4 3 . 2 % 2 . I n d u s t r i a l machinery 1 2 . 1 % 3 . Petroleum p r o d u c t s 1 . 5 % 3 . Motor v e h i c l e s 9 . 0 % Singapore 1. Petroleum p r o d u c t s 2 0 . 5 % 1. M i n e r a l f u e l s 1 9 . 8 % 2 . E l e c t r o n i c components 7 . 8 % 2 . E l e c t r i c a l components 8 . 7% 3 . C h e m i c a l s 5 . 8 % 3 . Food p r o d u c t s 7 . 0 % 4. T . V . s and r a d i o s 5 . 5 % 4 . C h e m i c a l s 5 . 8 % M a l a y s i a 1. E l e c t r o n i c components 1 5 . 0 % 1. Manuf. components 3 6 . 0 % 2 . Crude Petroleum 14 . 0% 2 . Mach. & t r a n s , e q u i p . 1 1 . 0% 3 . Logs and t i m b e r 13 . 0% 3 . Food and beverages 6 . 0 % 4 . Rubber 9 . 0 % 4. Metal p r o d u c t s 5 . 0 % 5 . Palm o i l 7 . 0 % 5 . Consumer d u r a b l e s 5 . 0 % T h a i l a n d 1. T e x t i l e s and c l o t h i n g 1 6 . 0% 1. C a p i t a l goods 3 0 . 7 % 2 . R i c e 8 . 0 % 2 . S e m i - f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s 2 9 . 7 % * 3 . T a p i o c a 7 . 0% 3 . Consumer p r o d u c t s 1 6 . 2 % 4 . Rubber 7 . 0% 4. F u e l o i l 1 4 . 0% 5. I n t e g r a t e d c i r c u i t s 5 . 0 % 5 . V e h i c l e s and p a r t s 4 . 6% P h i l i p p i n e s 1. E l e c t r o n i c components 8 . 5 % 1. Petroleum p r o d u c t s 1 8 . 5 % 2 . Coconut o i l 6.7%. 2 . Mach. & t r a n s , e q u i p . 1 6 . 9% 3 . C l o t h i n g 6 . 5 % 3 . C h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s 1 3 . 7 % 4 . Chemical p r o d u c t s 4 . 3% 4. I r o n and s t e e l 5 . 0 % I n d o n e s i a 1. Crude petroleum 3 2 . 7 % 1. N o n - e l e c t r i c machinery 3 0 . 3 % 2 . N a t u r a l gas 1 5 . 5% 2 . T r a n s p o r t equipment 9 . 9 % 3 . Wood p r o d u c t s 12 . 5% 3 . Chemical compounds 9 . 3 % 4 . Petroleum p r o d u c t s 7 . 2% 4 . I r o n and s t e e l 6 . 6 % 5. Crude rubber 6 . 2 % 5 . E l e c t r i c a l machinery 5 . 6 % S o u r c e s : Trade P o l i c y Branch, B r i t i s h Columbia M i n i s t r y of I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s and I m m i g r a t i o n , ASEAN F a c t S h e e t s and ASEAN Country P r o f i l e s , 1988. - 23 -ASEAN's E x t e r n a l T r a d e : What i s c l e a r l y e v i d e n t from T a b l e 2 , i s t h e overwhelming dominance of J a p a n and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n ASEAN's e x t e r n a l t r a d e r e l a t i o n s . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , however, t h e ASEAN s t a t e s (with t h e p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n s of B r u n e i and t h e P h i l i p p i n e s ) a r e much more d i v e r s i f i e d i n t h e i r e x p o r t markets t h a n t h e N I E s l i k e Taiwan and Korea (which r o u t i n e l y s h i p 3 0 - 4 0 % of t h e i r t o t a l e x p o r t s t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ) . As s u c h , t h e ASEAN c o u n t r i e s a r e p r o b a b l y i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t o weather any downturn i n t h e U . S . economy. What T a b l e 2 d o e s n ' t show, because of s i z e c o n s t r a i n t s , i s t h e f u l l r o l e t h a t t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , t h e U . K . and West Germany p l a y i n ASEAN's e x t e r n a l t r a d e . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e s e European c o u n t r i e s a r e major s u p p l i e r s of h i g h end consumer p r o d u c t s , a u t o m o b i l e s and p a r t s , e l e c t r o n i c components, e l e c t r i c a l a p p a r a t u s , and s p e c i a l i z e d machinery and equipment t o t h e ASEAN market. A l s o not e x p l i c i t l y shown i n T a b l e 2 , i s t h e r a t h e r minimal r o l e t h a t Canada p l a y s a s a s u p p l i e r t o t h i s market. I n no c a s e , does Canada s u p p l y more t h a n 2% of any ASEAN c o u n t r y ' s t o t a l import r e q u i r e m e n t s . One f i n a l p o i n t worth n o t i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o T a b l e 2 , i s t h e f a i r l y h i g h degree of i n t r a - A S E A N t r a d e which o c c u r s . S i n g a p o r e , f o r example, i s a major t r a d i n g p a r t n e r of M a l a y s i a , B r u n e i , I n d o n e s i a and T h a i l a n d . T h i s s h o u l d not be too s u r p r i s i n g s i n c e S ingapore must import - 24 -v i r t u a l l y a l l i t s food and n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e r e q u i r e m e n t s . I n t u r n , S i n g a p o r e a c t s as a r e g i o n a l p r o c e s s i n g and e n t r e p o t c e n t r e f o r t h e s u r r o u n d i n g ASEAN c o u n t r i e s . T a b l e 3 , on t h e o t h e r hand, i l l u s t r a t e s t h e i n t e r e s t i n g dichotomy t h a t e x i s t s i n s e v e r a l of t h e ASEAN economies. On t h e one hand, t h e y a r e s t i l l v e r y dependent on n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e e x p o r t s ( i . e . , crude p e t r o l e u m , l o g s and t i m b e r , r u b b e r , palm o i l , r i c e , coconut o i l , and t a p i o c a ) w h i l e , on t h e o t h e r , t h e y a r e becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y t i e d i n t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t i o n networks of t h e m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s ( p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r such p r o d u c t s a s e l e c t r o n i c components, i n t e g r a t e d c i r c u i t s , T . V . s , s t e r e o s and r a d i o s ) . I n a d d i t i o n , d e s p i t e t h e i r s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g wage r a t e s , t h e ASEAN c o u n t r i e s s t i l l remain c o m p e t i t i v e i n s u c h t r a d i t i o n a l l y l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e s e c t o r s as t o y s , t e x t i l e s , and c l o t h i n g . So much s o , t h a t a l a r g e p a r t of t h e f o r e i g n c a p i t a l now f l o w i n g i n t o t h e ASEAN r e g i o n ( p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t o T h a i l a n d ) i s coming from Hong Kong, Korean and Taiwanese m a n u f a c t u r e r s who a r e moving o f f s h o r e i n an attempt t o m a i n t a i n t h e i r c o m p e t i t i v e advantage on t h e s e l a b o u r i n t e n s i v e p r o d u c t s . On t h e import s i d e , T a b l e s 2 and 3 c l e a r l y show t h e heavy dependence of ASEAN on t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s f o r s u p p l i e s of s o p h i s t i c a t e d machinery and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment, e l e c t r o n i c components and p a r t s , c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s , and motor v e h i c l e s . - 25 -ASEAN - Canada T r a d e : T a b l e 4, i n t u r n , shows C a n a d a ' s c u r r e n t e x p o r t / i m p o r t p r o f i l e w i t h ASEAN. I n t e r e s t i n g l y enough, a f t e r e n j o y i n g f o r many y e a r s a p o s i t i o n of o v e r a l l s u r p l u s i n i t s t r a d e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h ASEAN, Canada has now moved i n t o a d e f i c i t p o s i t i o n w i t h S i n g a p o r e , M a l a y s i a , T h a i l a n d , and t h e P h i l i p p i n e s . Canada has managed t o m a i n t a i n i t s t r a d e s u r p l u s o n l y w i t h I n d o n e s i a . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , C a n a d i a n t r a d e d a t a on B r u n e i , has o n l y been a v a i l a b l e s i n c e 198 6 and because of t h e s m a l l volumes i n v o l v e d , i t i s p e r h a p s premature t o t a l k of h i s t o r i c a l s u r p l u s e s or d e f i c i t s . C a n a d a ' s major e x p o r t s t o ASEAN a r e p r i m a r i l y r e s o u r c e -r e l a t e d ( i . e . , wood p u l p , wheat, s u l p h u r , n e w s p r i n t paper and paperboard, aluminum, and n i c k e l ) . Over t h e l a s t few y e a r s , however, t h e r e has been a s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g f low of manufactured end p r o d u c t s such as t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s equipment and s t e e l forms. The p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l C a n a d i a n e x p o r t s t h a t t h i s flow of manufactures a c c o u n t s f o r i s s t i l l v e r y s m a l l and r e f l e c t s t h e c l e a r p r e f e r e n c e among ASEAN b u y e r s f o r o t h e r s o u r c e s of end p r o d u c t s . C a n a d a ' s major imports from ASEAN a r e p r i m a r i l y t r o p i c a l commodities ( i . e . , r u b b e r , p i n e a p p l e , plywood, coconut o i l , palm o i l , f i s h and marine p r o d u c t s ) , t e x t i l e s and c l o t h i n g , and e l e c t r o n i c equipment ( i . e . , computers, T . V . s , r a d i o ' s , and - 26 -t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s components). I r o n i c a l l y , i n many ways, Canada e x h i b i t s a more t r a d i t i o n a l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y p r o f i l e i n i t s e x p o r t s t o ASEAN t h a n ASEAN does i n i t s e x p o r t s t o Canada. What T a b l e 4 d o e s n ' t show, however, (because i t i s e s s e n t i a l l y a snapshot i n t ime) i s t h e f a i r l y s i g n i f i c a n t shipments of manufactured end p r o d u c t s t h a t Canada has made t o ASEAN i n p a s t y e a r s . Major t u r n key p r o j e c t s l i k e p u l p m i l l s t o M a l a y s i a , s a w m i l l s t o I n d o n e s i a , and h y d r o - e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t o r s and t u r b i n e s t o T h a i l a n d , a l l have e x t r e m e l y long s a l e s and d e l i v e r y c y c l e s . W h i l e i t may t a k e s e v e r a l y e a r s t o n e g o t i a t e t h e s e s a l e s , when t h e y a r e f i n a l l y d e l i v e r e d , t h e y can have a v e r y d r a m a t i c impact on t h e b i l a t e r a l t r a d e f i g u r e s . T a b l e 4. Canadian Trade w i t h ASEAN (1988) (Cdn. m i l l i o n s ) Country Canadian E x p o r t s Major Commodities C a n a d i a n Imports Major Commodities Brunei $ 0 . 2 t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s equipment $ 0 . 1 c r u d e o i l , p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s S ingapore $ 2 7 5 . 2 t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s equipment, o i l s and f a t s , n i c k e l , f e r t i l i z e r , n e w s p r i n t $ 4 6 6 . 9 computers, T . V . s , r a d i o s , a i r cond. equipment, t e l e -comm. e q u i p . M a l a y s i a $ 1 9 1 . 9 f e r t i l i z e r , paper and p a p e r -board, aluminum, wood p u l p , a s b e s t o s $ 3 3 3 . 9 r u b b e r , c l o t h i n g , seafood p r o d u c t s , t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s equipment, v e g e -t a b l e o i l s and f a t s T h a i l a n d $ 2 5 9 . 0 wood p u l p , a s b e s t o s , s t e e l p r o d u c t s , aluminum, newspr int paper $343 . 5 seafood p r o d u c t s , c l o t h i n g , t e x t i l e s , canned p i n e a p p l e , gems and j e w e l l e r y I n d o n e s i a $ 2 9 8 . 7 wood p u l p , s u l p h u r , f e r t i l i z e r , s y n t h e t i c rubber and p l a s t i c $ 1 7 9 . 5 r u b b e r , plywood, c l o t h i n g , m e t a l o r e s & c o n c e n t r a t e s c o f f e e and s p i c e s P h i l i p p i n e s $ 1 3 1 . 0 wheat, i r o n ore c o n c e n t r a t e , s t e e l p r o d u c t s , p l a s t i c s , wood p u l p $ 1 7 8 . 4 c l o t h i n g , coconut o i l , g l o v e s , canned p i n e a p p l e S o u r c e s : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, E x p o r t s bv C o u n t r y , C a t a l o g u e 6 5 - 0 0 3 , 1 9 8 8 . S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Imports bv C o u n t r y , C a t a l o g u e 6 5 - 0 0 6 , 1 9 8 8 . - 28 -ASEAN - B r i t i s h Columbia T r a d e ; T a b l e 5 summarizes t h e volume of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s e x p o r t t r a d e w i t h ASEAN over t h e l a s t 25 y e a r s . A s i d e from t h e r a t h e r d r a m a t i c growth i n t o t a l B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t s t o ASEAN, over t h a t p e r i o d of t i m e , t h e r e a r e a number of o t h e r i n t e r e s t i n g t r e n d s worth h i g h l i g h t i n g . For example, i t i s apparent from T a b l e 5 , t h a t I n d o n e s i a h a s long been one of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s major ASEAN e x p o r t m a r k e t s . What i s not so e v i d e n t from T a b l e 5 , however, i s t h e f a c t t h a t a profound slump i n B . C . e x p o r t s t o I n d o n e s i a took p l a c e d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 5 (when e x p o r t s a v e r a g e d o n l y $3 0 -50 m i l l i o n a n n u a l l y ) . T h a i l a n d , which i s c u r r e n t l y B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s second l a r g e s t ASEAN market, a l s o d i s p l a y e d a marked d r o p - o f f i n i t s p u r c h a s e s of B . C . e x p o r t s d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d 1 9 8 1 - 1 9 8 5 . I t was o n l y d u r i n g t h e l a s t t h r e e y e a r s t h a t B . C . e x p o r t s t o T h a i l a n d s t a r t e d t o grow a g a i n . Perhaps even more i n t e r e s t i n g i s t h e r e c e n t h i s t o r y of B . C . e x p o r t s t o t h e P h i l i p p i n e s and S i n g a p o r e . E x p o r t s t o t h e P h i l i p p i n e s , which was one of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s e a r l i e s t ASEAN m a r k e t s , v i r t u a l l y c o l l a p s e d d u r i n g t h e l a t t e r days of t h e Marcos e r a , p r i m a r i l y due t o t h e P h i l i p p i n e s ' i n a b i l i t y t o pay f o r a n y t h i n g except t h e most e s s e n t i a l i m p o r t s . Even t o d a y , w i t h t h e P h i l i p p i n e s ' economy s l o w l y r e c o v e r i n g , B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t s t o t h a t market have s t i l l not r e t u r n e d t o t h e l e v e l s of the e a r l y 1 9 8 0 s . S i n g a p o r e , on - 29 -t h e o t h e r hand, has long e n j o y e d a r o l e a s t h e r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n p o i n t f o r B . C . e x p o r t s t o ASEAN. However, w i t h t h e growing economic might of t h e s u r r o u n d i n g economies and t h e i r i n c r e a s e d p r e f e r e n c e f o r d i r e c t shipments from B r i t i s h Columbia, r a t h e r t h a n through S i n g a p o r e a n middlemen, B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t s t o S ingapore s t a r t e d t o drop o f f r a p i d l y i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 8 0 s . I t was not u n t i l 1 9 8 7 , t h a t B . C . e x p o r t s r e t u r n e d t o t h e i r 1980 l e v e l . Although d e t a i l e d commodity breakdowns a r e not y e t a v a i l a b l e f o r 1988 B . C . e x p o r t s t o S i n g a p o r e , t h e s p e c u l a t i o n i s t h a t t h e d o u b l i n g of e x p o r t volumes over 1987 l e v e l s i s l a r g e l y due t o i n c r e a s e d S ingaporean p u r c h a s e s of p u l p and p a p e r . Whether t h i s new, h i g h e r , volume of export t r a d e can be s u s t a i n e d p a s t t h e next downturn i n t h e p u l p and paper c y c l e remains t o be s e e n . - 30 -T a b l e 5 . T o t a l B r i t i s h Columbia E x p o r t s t o ASEAN (Cdn.$ m i l l i o n s ) Country 1962 1 9 7 7 1980 1987 1988 B r u n e i P h i l i p p i n e s S i n g a p o r e M a l a y s i a T h a i l a n d I n d o n e s i a T o t a l 0 0 0 0 0 . 2 1 5 . 6* 8 . 0 1 8 . 5 1 3 . 0 23 . 3 0 8 . 7 2 5 . 9 23 . 5 4 3 . 9 0 1 5 . 9 4 2 . 8 4 1 . 6 6 0 . 2 1. 4 3 0 . 0 63 . 2 73 . 7 9 8 . 1 0. 5 1 6 . 2 3 2 . 0 88. 0 1 0 6 . 6 1 7 . 5 7 8 . 8 182 .4 2 3 9 . 8 3 3 2 . 2 * $ 1 1 . 9 m i l l i o n of t h i s amount was wheat (which p r o b a b l y o r i g i n a t e d on t h e P r a i r i e s , not i n B r i t i s h Columbia) S o u r c e : C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c s Bureau, E s t i m a t e d V a l u e of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a / O r i g i n E x p o r t s bv Country and R e g i o n , V i c t o r i a : 1 9 6 2 , 1 9 7 7 , 1 9 8 0 , 1 9 8 7 , 1 9 8 8 . F i n a l l y , T a b l e s 6 t o 10 d e t a i l t h e commodity c o m p o s i t i o n of B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t s t o t h e ASEAN r e g i o n , by c o u n t r y . S p e c i f i c commodity d a t a i s not a v a i l a b l e f o r B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t s t o B r u n e i , a l t h o u g h i t i s known t h a t MacDonald D e t t w i l e r and A s s o c i a t e s d i d c o n c l u d e a major s a l e f o r t h e s u p p l y of a w e a t h e r - s a t e l l i t e r e c e p t i o n and a n a l y s i s system i n September of 1 9 8 7 . The t o t a l v a l u e of t h a t c o n t r a c t was between $ 7 5 0 , 0 0 0 and $ 1 m i l l i o n and t h e system was t o be d e l i v e r e d over a p e r i o d of 3 t o 5 y e a r s . T h i s s a l e would not be recorded i n o f f i c i a l p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s , however, because t o do so would v i o l a t e - 31 -S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a ' s g u i d e l i n e s c o n c e r n i n g t h e r e l e a s e of d a t a which might r e v e a l t h e s a l e s of any one i n d i v i d u a l company. T a b l e 6. B r i t i s h Columbia E x p o r t s t o I n d o n e s i a by Commodity (Cdn.$ m i l l i o n s ) Commodities Wood p u l p Paper and paperboard Z i n c b l o c k s , p i g s and s l a b s Aluminum i n g o t s S u l p h u r Other T o t a l 1986 2 9 . 0 4 . 2 1987 , 5 ,7 .2 .7 44 . 3 64 12 4 2 0 3 5 5 4 ,9 ,5 ,2 88 . 0 T a b l e 7 . B r i t i s h Columbia E x p o r t s t o T h a i l a n d by Commodity (Cdn.$ m i l l i o n s ) Commodities Wood p u l p Aluminum i n g o t s Newsprint A s b e s t o s Computers and p a r t s Other 1986 1987 1 5 . 6 10. 2 9 . 9 4 . 2 0.0 3 . 2 25. 16. 14. 8. 4 . 5. T o t a l 43 . 1 7 3 . 7 - 32 -T a b l e 8. B r i t i s h Columbia E x p o r t s t o M a l a y s i a bv Commodity ( C d n . $ m i l l i o n s ) Commodities 1986 1987 Paper and paperboard 8 . 7 1 5 . 8 Aluminum i n g o t s 9 . 8 9. 3 Wood p u l p 3 . 1 8. 8 A s b e s t o s 3 . 6 4. 0 Z i n c b l o c k s , p i g s and s l a b s 1 . 2 1 . 3 Other 1 . 9 2 . 4 T o t a l 2 8 . 3 4 1 . 6 T a b l e 9. B r i t i s h Columbia E x p o r t s t o S i n a a p o r e bv Commodity (Cdn.$ m i l l i o n s ) Commodities 1986 1987 Paper and paperboard 1 3 . 2 1 3 . 5 Z i n c b l o c k s , p i g s & s l a b s 0 . 9 2 . 3 Wood p u l p 1 . 0 1 . 8 A p p l e s and c r a b a p p l e s 1 . 1 1 . 0 P a r t s and a c c e s s f o r motor v e h i c l e s 0 . 9 0 . 5 Other 5 . 5 4 . 4 T o t a l 22 . 6 2 3 . 5 T a b l e 1 0 . B r i t i s h Columbia E x p o r t s t o t h e P h i l i p p i n e s bv Commodity (Cdn.$ m i l l i o n s ) Commodities 1986 1987 Wood P u l p 4 . 9 8 . 2 Aluminum anhydrous ,0.0 1 . 6 Z i n c b l o c k s , p i g s and s l a b s 2 . 4 1 . 1 L i n e r b o a r d 0 . 0 0 . 8 Other 4 . 0 1 . 3 T o t a l 1 1 . 3 1 3 . 0 - 33 -What i s most s t r i k i n g about T a b l e s 6 t o 1 0 , i s t h e f a c t t h a t B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t s e s s e n t i a l l y t h e same p r o d u c t s t o a l l t h e ASEAN economies. B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s e x p o r t s t o ASEAN a r e c l e a r l y dominated by wood p u l p , paper and paperboard, aluminum i n g o t s , n e w s p r i n t , z i n c and a s b e s t o s . Not shown i n T a b l e s 6 t o 1 0 , because of t h e p h y s i c a l l i m i t a t i o n s of s p a c e , a r e t h e wide v a r i e t y of " o t h e r " p r o d u c t s t h a t B . C . e x p o r t s t o ASEAN. Thus f a r , however, v e r y few shipments of B . C . f i s h and marine p r o d u c t s , o i l s and f a t s , a p p l e s and c r a b a p p l e s , t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s equipment, l o g g i n g t r u c k s and c h a s s i s t o ASEAN have exceeded $ 1 m i l l i o n i n s a l e s a n n u a l l y . Most of t h e s e p r o d u c t s , by comparison, r e p r e s e n t o n l y $ 2 0 0 - 3 0 0 , 0 0 0 i n a n n u a l s a l e s t o any one ASEAN market, which i s p r o b a b l y v e r y c l o s e t o t h e minimum order s i z e needed t o s u s t a i n a s e r i o u s e x p o r t market p r e s e n c e i n t h o s e c o u n t r i e s . - 34 -Purpose: The purpose of t h i s s t u d y i s b a s i c a l l y f o u r - f o l d . One, t o d i s c o v e r what s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n s u c c e s s f u l B . C . e x p o r t e r s h a v e , i n t h e p a s t , used t o uncover i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. Two, t o b r i e f l y compare t h o s e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n w i t h what we know about t h e i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s u t i l i z e d by B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s major i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t o r s i n ASEAN. T h r e e , t o d i s c u s s what i m p l i c a t i o n s t h i s knowledge has f o r t h e way i n which new or p o t e n t i a l B . C . e x p o r t e r s go about t h e p r o c e s s of u n c o v e r i n g b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. F o u r , t o c o n s i d e r , what p o l i c y i n i t i a t i v e s governments must t a k e t o s u p p o r t p r i v a t e s e c t o r e f f o r t s t o p e n e t r a t e t h e ASEAN market. - 35 -S i g n i f i c a n c e of t h e S t u d y ; To d a t e , v e r y l i t t l e r e s e a r c h has been done on how C a n a d i a n e x p o r t e r s uncover i n f o r m a t i o n on f o r e i g n market o p p o r t u n i t i e s , and v i r t u a l l y n o t h i n g a t a l l h a s been done on t h e i n f o r m a t i o n s e e k i n g b e h a v i o u r of B . C . e x p o r t e r s . Most of t h e r e s e a r c h and l i t e r a t u r e , t o d a t e , has f o c u s e d on e x p o r t e n t r y and p o s t - e n t r y forms of b e h a v i o u r ( i . e . , whether t h e market i s b e s t a c c e s s e d v i a e x p o r t s or through a j o i n t v e n t u r e or d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t a r r a n g e m e n t ) . An e q u a l l y l a r g e body of knowledge e x i s t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o how e x p o r t markets a r e t a r g e t e d and what s e l e c t i o n c r i t e r i a a r e i m p o r t a n t . S i m i l a r l y , many s t u d i e s have f o c u s e d on t h e d e t e r m i n a n t s of f o r e i g n d i r e c t investment b e h a v i o u r and t h e c r i t e r i a by which h o s t c o u n t r i e s a r e s e l e c t e d . However, t h e l a r g e m a j o r i t y of t h e s e s t u d i e s assume t h a t t h e f i r m i n q u e s t i o n has a l r e a d y i d e n t i f i e d a market o p p o r t u n i t y and i s s i m p l y f a c e d w i t h t h e t a s k of e v a l u a t i n g i t s v a r i o u s a c c e s s o p t i o n s . By comparison, v e r y l i t t l e work has been done on how e x p o r t e r s a c t u a l l y uncover t h e s e p o t e n t i a l e x p o r t o p p o r t u n i t i e s or on how t h e y t a p i n t o e x p o r t o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n a market which i s both p h y s i c a l l y and c u l t u r a l l y remote. By and l a r g e , t h e r e s e a r c h , t o d a t e , has concerned i t s e l f w i t h t h e b e h a v i o u r of U . S . and European f i r m s . Only r e c e n t l y have Canadian e x p o r t e r s been s t u d i e d i n any d e t a i l . - 36 -S i m i l a r l y , much of t h e e a r l y i n t e r n a t i o n a l b u s i n e s s l i t e r a t u r e f o c u s e d i t s a t t e n t i o n on t h e i n v e s t m e n t and e x p o r t i n i t i a t i n g a c t i v i t i e s of m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s r a t h e r t h a n on t h e s m a l l and m e d i u m - s i z e d companies which a c c o u n t f o r over 96% of a l l Canadian c o r p o r a t i o n s . 2 4 F i n a l l y , most of t h e s t u d i e s which have been done on C a n a d i a n e x p o r t b e h a v i o u r and market e n t r y have f o c u s s e d t h e i r a t t e n t i o n on a d j a c e n t and r e l a t i v e l y f a m i l i a r markets (such as t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ) , not on t h e d e v e l o p i n g and newly i n d u s t r i a l i z i n g economies (NIEs) of t h e P a c i f i c Rim ( s u c h a s ASEAN). Where t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e markets have been d i s c u s s e d , i t i s u s u a l l y i n the c o n t e x t of i n v e s t m e n t c r i t e r i a and f o r e i g n d i r e c t investment d e c i s i o n models . F r e q u e n t l y , however, t h e s e models s i m p l y assume an a c c u r a t e t i m e l y s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n and b e g i n t h e i r a n a l y s i s a f t e r t h e e n t r y o p p o r t u n i t y has a l r e a d y been i d e n t i f i e d . T h e r e f o r e , a s t u d y which f o c u s e s a t t e n t i o n on t h e p r e - e x p o r t i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g a c t i v i t i e s of B r i t i s h Columbia companies, i n v o l v e d i n p e n e t r a t i n g one of t h e most e c o n o m i c a l l y dynamic r e g i o n s of the P a c i f i c Rim, i s long over due and c l e a r l y f i l l s a gap i n the c u r r e n t C a n a d i a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l b u s i n e s s l i t e r a t u r e . I n a d d i t i o n , i t p r o v i d e s a number of p o l i c y i n s i g h t s which may be of c o n s i d e r a b l e - 37 -i n t e r e s t t o new e x p o r t e r s a t t e m p t i n g t o p e n e t r a t e t h e ASEAN market and t o governments i n t e r e s t e d i n a s s i s t i n g t h o s e market e n t r y e f f o r t s . - 38 -Methodology: T h i s s t u d y employs a d e s c r i p t i v e i n t e r v i e w - b a s e d methodology. I t i s h i s t o r i c a l i n t h e s e n s e t h a t i t l o o k s a t p a s t and p r e s e n t e x p e r i e n c e s , b u t c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l i n t h a t i t l o o k s a t a number of f i r m s i n s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t i n d u s t r i e s . A l l t h e respondents i n t h e s u r v e y were i n i t i a l l y c o n t a c t e d by m a i l and, s h o r t l y t h e r e a f t e r , by t e l e p h o n e . P e r s o n a l f a c e - t o - f a c e i n t e r v i e w s l a s t i n g between 45 m i n u t e s and 2 h o u r s were conducted w i t h t h e s e n i o r most i n d i v i d u a l i n t h e f i r m r e s p o n s i b l e f o r ASEAN market ing a c t i v i t i e s . A l l r e s p o n d e n t s were i n t e r v i e w e d by t h e a u t h o r u s i n g t h e same s t a n d a r d q u e s t i o n n a i r e (see Appendix 2) and t h e i r r e s p o n s e s were r e c o r d e d by hand. I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e s t a n d a r d i z e d q u e s t i o n s asked i n a l l i n t e r v i e w s , t h e r e was c o n s i d e r a b l e o p p o r t u n i t y t o engage t h e r e s p o n d e n t s i n an open-ended d i s c u s s i o n of t h e i r f i r m ' s ASEAN a c t i v i t i e s . Because t h e f o c u s of t h i s s t u d y was on t h e i n d i v i d u a l f i r m ' s e x p e r i e n c e i n ASEAN, t h e s e d i g r e s s i o n s were f e l t t o be p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l and, i n f a c t , p r o v i d e d a w e a l t h of i n f o r m a t i o n which c o u l d not have been e l i c i t e d by a s t r i c t adherence t o t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e o n l y . The b a s i c u n i t of a n a l y s i s i n the s t u d y was t h e d e s c r i p t i o n , by t h e respondent, of t h e i n i t i a l (and most r e c e n t ) i n s t a n c e - 39 -i n which t h e i r f i r m r e c e i v e d i n f o r m a t i o n about a b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t y i n ASEAN (and t h e s o u r c e from which t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n came). Two p o s s i b l e c r i t i c i s m s of t h i s methodology must be acknowledged from t h e o u t s e t . One, i t might be argued t h a t a m a i l - b a s e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e would have a l l o w e d f o r a much l a r g e r sample s i z e and, t h e r e f o r e , a much g r e a t e r l e v e l of c o n f i d e n c e i n any c o n c l u s i o n s drawn. I n r e s p o n s e t o t h i s c r i t i c i s m , i t s h o u l d be p o i n t e d out t h a t t h e r e s p o n d e n t s were i d e n t i f i e d f o l l o w i n g a c a r e f u l rev iew of t h e C a n a d i a n b u s i n e s s media over a two y e a r p e r i o d , i n t e r v i e w s w i t h f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e o f f i c i a l s , and an e x a m i n a t i o n of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s e x p o r t s t a t i s t i c s t o ASEAN f o r t h e f i v e y e a r p e r i o d p r e c e d i n g t h e a c t u a l i n t e r v i e w s i n t h e S p r i n g of 1 9 8 6 . U s i n g t h e p r o v i n c i a l government's own e s t i m a t e s of 1985 B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t s t o ASEAN ( $ 1 7 5 . 8 m i l l i o n ) , t h e r e s p o n d e n t ' s i n t e r v i e w e d f o r t h i s s t u d y accounted f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y $ 1 2 9 m i l l i o n i n s a l e s t o ASEAN (or about 75% of t o t a l B . C . e x p o r t s t o ASEAN i n t h a t y e a r ) . Even d i s c o u n t i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of o v e r - r e p o r t i n g , t h e respondents i n t e r v i e w e d s t i l l accounted f o r an overwhelming m a j o r i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s t r a d e w i t h ASEAN. I t seems u n l i k e l y , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t s i m p l y adding more f i r m s t o t h e s t u d y would have s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n c r e a s e d e i t h e r t h e percentage of B . C . e x p o r t s t o ASEAN accounted f o r - 40 -by t h e r e s p o n d e n t s or t h e l e v e l of c o n f i d e n c e a p p l i e d t o i t s c o n c l u s i o n s . Furthermore, a m a i l - b a s e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e would not l i k e l y have e l i c i t e d anywhere near t h e same r e s p o n s e r a t e a s t h e f a c e - t o - f a c e i n t e r v i e w s u r v e y d i d . T r a d i t i o n a l m a i l - b a s e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s u r v e y s c o n s i d e r t h e m s e l v e s l u c k y t o a c h i e v e a r e s p o n s e r a t e of 1 5 - 2 0 % , l e t a l o n e t h e 7 2 . 4 % r e s p o n s e r a t e a c h i e v e d i n t h i s s t u d y . T h e r e f o r e , when t h e r e s p o n s e r a t e i s combined w i t h t h e dominant p o s i t i o n of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s e x p o r t t r a d e w i t h ASEAN, t h e m e r i t s of moving t o a l a r g e r m a i l - b a s e d s u r v e y a r e h i g h l y q u e s t i o n a b l e . A second p o s s i b l e c r i t i c i s m of t h e s t u d y ' s methodology c o n c e r n s t h e c h o i c e of i n t e r v i e w s u b j e c t s . S i n c e t h e s t u d y i s o s t e n s i b l y concerned w i t h o r i g i n a l market e n t r y s c e n a r i o s , t h e q u e s t i o n might r e a s o n a b l y be a s k e d , do t h e respondents i n t e r v i e w e d n e c e s s a r i l y have p e r s o n a l knowledge of what t r a n s p i r e d i n the e a r l i e s t days of t h e i r f i r m ' s ASEAN a c t i v i t i e s ? A p e r f e c t l y v a l i d q u e s t i o n . However, i t can be a d d r e s s e d q u i t e a d e q u a t e l y by examining both t h e p e r s o n a l and c o r p o r a t e p r o f i l e s of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s . F i r s t of a l l , n e a r l y one h a l f of t h e respondents i n t e r v i e w e d h e l d t h e p o s i t i o n of p r e s i d e n t i n t h e i r company w h i l e an a d d i t i o n a l 25% h e l d the p o s i t i o n of v i c e - p r e s i d e n t or - 41 -d i r e c t o r . T h e r e f o r e , a lmost t h r e e q u a r t e r s of t h e i n d i v i d u a l s i n t e r v i e w e d were a t , or n e a r , t h e top of t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e o r g a n i z a t i o n s and m i g h t , t h e r e f o r e , l o g i c a l l y be expected t o have some knowledge of t h e i r f i r m ' s i n i t i a l ASEAN a c t i v i t i e s . S e c o n d l y , more t h a n 70% of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s i n t e r v i e w e d had been w i t h t h e i r f i r m f o r l o n g e r t h a n 1 5 y e a r s . S i n c e 76% of t h e respondent f i r m s , t h e m s e l v e s , had been i n v o l v e d i n ASEAN f o r l e s s t h a n 2 0 y e a r s , t h e r e i s a v e r y h i g h p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e s e same i n d i v i d u a l s would have been i n v o l v e d i n t h e i r f i r m ' s i n i t i a l ASEAN market e n t r y . Thus, t h e use of an i n t e r v i e w s u r v e y approach and t h e s e l e c t i o n of s u r v e y r e s p o n d e n t s both seem r e a s o n a b l e and d e f e n s i b l e . - 42 -PART II. LITERATURE REVIEW: I n t r o d u c t i o n : A l t h o u g h v e r y l i t t l e h a s been w r i t t e n s p e c i f i c a l l y a b o u t t h e s o u r c e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n u s e d by B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a e x p o r t e r s a t t e m p t i n g t o i d e n t i f y new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN, t h e r e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l body of l i t e r a t u r e a v a i l a b l e i n a number o f c l o s e l y r e l a t e d f i e l d s . The t a s k , t h e r e f o r e , i s t o e x t r a c t from e a c h of t h e s e v a r i o u s a v e n u e s of r e s e a r c h a s u f f i c i e n t number of i n s i g h t s t o be a b l e t o f o r m u l a t e some r e a s o n a b l e h y p o t h e s e s about our own p a r t i c u l a r l i n e o f e n q u i r y . T h e r e a r e f o u r g e n e r a l a r e a s of t h e l i t e r a t u r e w h i c h b e a r upon t h e s u b j e c t of t h i s t h e s i s . The f i r s t , d e a l s w i t h t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n u t i l i z e d by c o r p o r a t i o n s i n t h e i r s c a n n i n g o f t h e e x t e r n a l b u s i n e s s e n v i r o n m e n t . The s e c o n d , d e a l s w i t h t h e f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n . The t h i r d a r e a of t h e l i t e r a t u r e , d e a l s w i t h t h e p r o c e s s o f d i f f u s i o n and t h e c h a n n e l s t h r o u g h which new i n f o r m a t i o n and i n n o v a t i o n s a r e d i s s e m i n a t e d . The f o u r t h l i n e of i n q u i r y d e a l s w i t h t h e e x p o r t d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s and how i t r e l a t e s t o e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l o r i n n o v a t i v e b e h a v i o u r . C l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h i s l a s t l i n e of i n q u i r y i s t h e s t u d y of how f i r m s e n t e r t h e e x p o r t m a r k e t p l a c e and why. Common t o a l l t h e s e a r e a s of t h e l i t e r a t u r e i s a c o n c e r n w i t h how f i r m s and i n d i v i d u a l s f i n d and u s e i n f o r m a t i o n . - 43 -E n v i r o n m e n t a l S c a n n i n g : Foremost among t h i s p a r t i c u l a r group of w r i t e r s i s F r a n c i s J . A g u i l a r , who i s w i d e l y c r e d i t e d w i t h h a v i n g i n t r o d u c e d t h e concept of " e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c a n n i n g " A g u i l a r i n t e r v i e w e d 1 3 7 managers i n 4 1 l a r g e U . S . m a n u f a c t u r i n g c o r p o r a t i o n s i n an e f f o r t t o u n d e r s t a n d how s e n i o r managers a c q u i r e s t r a t e g i c i n f o r m a t i o n about e v e n t s o c c u r r i n g i n t h e e x t e r n a l environment. He concluded t h a t , " p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s g r e a t l y exceed impersonal s o u r c e s i n importance ( 7 1 p e r c e n t v e r s u s 29 p e r c e n t ) , and t h u s i n d i c a t e t h e r e l a t i v e l y heavy r e l i a n c e t h a t managers p l a c e on t h e i r p e r s o n a l networks of communication (both p r i v a t e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l ) " 2 6 . I n a d d i t i o n , A g u i l a r found t h a t s o u r c e s o u t s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n were used more o f t e n t h a n s o u r c e s i n s i d e t h e 2 7 o r g a n i z a t i o n (55 p e r c e n t t o 45 p e r c e n t ) . A g u i l a r a l s o i n v e s t i g a t e d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between s c a n n i n g b e h a v i o u r , t h e s i z e of t h e company, m a n a g e r i a l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n and y e a r s of m a n a g e r i a l e x p e r i e n c e . He c o n c l u d e d t h a t , " e x e c u t i v e s i n t h e same f u n c t i o n a l a r e a appear t o e x h i b i t n o t a b l y more s i m i l a r [ s c a n n i n g ] p r o f i l e s t h a n do e x e c u t i v e s a t the same l e v e l i n t h e h i e r a r c h y " and "the l a r g e r t h e company, t h e more o f t e n i t s managers s e c u r e p Q i n f o r m a t i o n about i s s u e s o u t s i d e the i n d u s t r y i t s e l f " . ° A g u i l a r went on t o quote a s e n i o r New York i n v e s t m e n t banker - 44 -t o i l l u s t r a t e h i s p o i n t t h a t " p r o b a b l y t h e most i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e of e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n f o r any s u c c e s s f u l e x e c u t i v e i n a l a r g e c o r p o r a t i o n i s t h e i n f o r m a l network of c o n t a c t s which he h a s o u t s i d e t h e company [and which] you c o u l d t h i n k of . . . as c o n s t i t u t i n g a ' k i t c h e n c a b i n e t ' f o r t h e 0 Q e x e c u t i v e " . With r e s p e c t t o t h e impact of m a n a g e r i a l e x p e r i e n c e , A g u i l a r found t h a t a lmost h a l f t h e e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t i n e x p e r i e n c e d managers r e c e i v e d was u n s o l i c i t e d . T h i s stood i n sharp c o n t r a s t t o h i s r e s u l t s f o r more e x p e r i e n c e d managers. A g u i l a r s p e c u l a t e d t h a t t h e r e a s o n f o r t h i s d i f f e r e n c e might l i e i n t h e shortcomings a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i n e x p e r i e n c e d manager's p e r s o n a l communications network. He f e l t t h a t t h e i n e x p e r i e n c e d manager had y e t t o d e v e l o p a f u l l y e f f e c t i v e network of communication and was n o t , t h e r e f o r e , i n a p o s i t i o n t o a c t i v e l y s o l i c i t i n f o r m a t i o n from t h a t n e t w o r k . 3 0 T a b l e 1 1 summarizes A g u i l a r ' s f i n d i n g s as t o t h e r e l a t i v e importance of v a r i o u s i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s . - 45 -T a b l e 1 1 . R e l a t i v e Importance of I n f o r m a t i o n S o u r c e s Source Customers S u p p l i e r s Others ( i . e . , b a n k e r s , c o n s u l t a n t s ) B u s i n e s s and P r o f e s s i o n a l A s s o c i a t e s Other P e r s o n a l Sources Trade P u b l i c a t i o n s Newspapers Other N o n - P e r s o n a l Sources T o t a l O u t s i d e S o u r c e s P e r c e n t a g e of Responses 11% 3% 4% 9% 6% 9% 11% 2% 55' S u b o r d i n a t e s 23% P e e r s 6% S u p e r i o r s 3% Other P e r s o n a l C o r p o r a t e Sources 7% I n t e r n a l R e p o r t s and N o t i c e s 4% Scheduled Company Meetings 2% T o t a l I n s i d e Sources 45% S o u r c e : F r a n c i s J . A g u i l a r , Scanning t h e B u s i n e s s Environment, p . 69. I t i s - i n t e r e s t i n g t h e n o t e , t h a t s u b o r d i n a t e s r e p r e s e n t e d t h e s i n g l e most important source of s t r a t e g i c i n f o r m a t i o n i n A g u i l a r ' s sample. An importance t h a t A g u i l a r found even more pronounced i n l a r g e c o m p a n i e s . 3 1 The second most important s o u r c e s i n A g u i l a r ' s s t u d y were customers and newspapers, f o l l o w e d by b u s i n e s s a s s o c i a t e s and t r a d e p u b l i c a t i o n s . G i v e n t h e importance t h a t A g u i l a r a t t a c h e d t o p u b l i s h e d s o u r c e s , i t i s worth b r i e f l y r e v i e w i n g what he had t o s a y about them. F i r s t of a l l , he found a v e r y h i g h - 46 -degree of common r e a d e r s h i p 3 2 . I n t h i s r e s p e c t , h i s f i n d i n g s p a r a l l e l t h e e a r l i e r work of M a r t i n and A c k o f f , who i n a s t u d y of t h e c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y found t h a t , " t e n or fewer j o u r n a l s out of t h e thousands a v a i l a b l e a c c o u n t e d f o r h a l f or more of t h e t o t a l r e a d i n g t i m e " . 3 3 Second, t h e h i g h e r t h e l e v e l of t h e e x e c u t i v e , t h e l e s s f r e q u e n t l y he g a i n e d important e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n from p u b l i c a t i o n s a l o n e and t h e more o f t e n he d e l e g a t e d t h i s s c a n n i n g t a s k t o h i s s u b o r d i n a t e s . T h i s , i n t u r n , would e x p l a i n t h e v e r y h i g h r a t i n g t h a t s u b o r d i n a t e s r e c e i v e d as a s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n . 3 4 T h i r d , a l t h o u g h many companies had " s y s t e m a t i z e d t o some degree t h e s c a n n i n g of t e c h n i c a l p u b l i c a t i o n s . . . few companies had any comparable system t o c o v e r t h e r e l e v a n t management and commercial p u b l i c a t i o n s " . 3 5 F i n a l l y , t h e r e was a g r e a t d e a l of i n e r t i a on t h e p a r t of s e n i o r management i n t h e i r c h o i c e of r e a d i n g m a t e r i a l . A g u i l a r found t h a t t h e y tended t o " c o n t i n u e r e a d i n g p u b l i c a t i o n s t h a t r e l a t e d t o p r e v i o u s r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s and i n t e r e s t s and t o d e l a y p a y i n g r e g u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o u n f a m i l i a r p u b l i c a t i o n s c o v e r i n g new a s p e c t s of t h e i r j o b s " . 3 6 To b r i e f l y r e c a p i t u l a t e , A g u i l a r i s c r e d i t e d w i t h h i g h l i g h t i n g t h e importance of e n v i r o n m e n t a l s c a n n i n g a s i t p e r t a i n s t o s t r a t e g i c p l a n n i n g and d e c i s i o n making a s w e l l as t o the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of f u t u r e b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s - 47 -and r i s k s . He s t r e s s e d t h e importance of p e r s o n a l o v e r n o n -p e r s o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s and t h e p r e f e r e n c e f o r e x t e r n a l over i n t e r n a l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n . F i n a l l y , he i d e n t i f i e d s u b o r d i n a t e s , newspapers, t r a d e j o u r n a l s , customers and b u s i n e s s a s s o c i a t e s as key s o u r c e s o f s t r a t e g i c i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e f i r m ' s e x t e r n a l environment. B u i l d i n g upon t h e work of A g u i l a r , Warren J . Keegan examined t h e i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s used by h e a d q u a r t e r s e x e c u t i v e s i n 1 3 l a r g e U . S . m u l t i n a t i o n a l s . Keegan c l a s s i f i e d t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n used by h i s respondents i n t o t h r e e b a s i c c a t e g o r i e s : human, documentary, and p h y s i c a l phenomena (or d i r e c t p e r c e p t i o n ) . H i s c o n c l u s i o n s about t h e r e l a t i v e importance of t h e t h r e e s o u r c e s r o u g h l y p a r a l l e l e d t h e f i n d i n g s of A g u i l a r . I n p a r t i c u l a r , he found t h a t "human s o u r c e s were c l e a r l y more important t h a n documentary and p h y s i c a l phenomena combined, a c c o u n t i n g f o r 67 p e r c e n t of a l l important e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n r e p o r t e d by 3 7 r e s p o n d e n t s " . J Keegan, l i k e A g u i l a r , a l s o found t h a t o u t s i d e s o u r c e s were n e a r l y t w i c e as important as s o u r c e s i n s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n (66 p e r c e n t v e r s u s 34 percent) w i t h one major e x c e p t i o n . That e x c e p t i o n b e i n g , t h a t when t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i n q u e s t i o n o r i g i n a t e d o v e r s e a s , i n s i d e s o u r c e s ( p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e company's own i n t e r n a t i o n a l e x e c u t i v e s abroad) were 48 c o n s i d e r e d more important t h a n o u t s i d e s o u r c e s . The e x p l a n a t i o n he o f f e r e d was t h a t most e x e c u t i v e s do not have n e a r l y as e x t e n s i v e an o v e r s e a s network of c o n t a c t s a s t h e y do i n t h e i r own domest ic market. T h e r e f o r e , t h e y a r e much more dependent on t h e i r c o l l e a g u e s o v e r s e a s f o r i n f o r m a t i o n on what i s happening i n t h o s e f o r e i g n markets t h a n t h e y would on t h e i r c o l l e a g u e s i n a domest ic market s i t u a t i o n . T a b l e 1 2 summarizes K e e g a n ' s p r i n c i p a l f i n d i n g s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e major c l a s s e s of s o u r c e s he reviewed. T a b l e 1 2 . Most Important S o u r c e s L o c a t i o n of Source Percentage of Responses I n s i d e t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n O u t s i d e t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n 34% 66% T o t a l 100% Type of Source Percentage of Responses Human Documentary P h y s i c a l Phenomena 67% 27% 6% T o t a l 100% S o u r c e ; W.J . Keegan, M u l t i n a t i o n a l S c a n n i n g , p . 4 1 3 . W i t h i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n , Keegan found t h a t t h e most important "human" s o u r c e of e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n was t h e c o r p o r a t i o n ' s own e x e c u t i v e s o v e r s e a s (whether i n a - 49 -s u b s i d i a r y or an a f f i l i a t e company). O u t s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n , Keegan i d e n t i f i e d t h e s t a f f of s e r v i c e o r g a n i z a t i o n s such a s b a n k e r s , l a w y e r s and a c c o u n t a n t s as 3 8 t h e most important human s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n . However, u n l i k e h i s p r e d e c e s s o r A g u i l a r , Keegan found v e r y l i t t l e e v i d e n c e of important e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n b e i n g p a s s e d a l o n g by s u b o r d i n a t e s or lower l e v e l employees. I n s t e a d , he found a much g r e a t e r importance b e i n g a t t a c h e d t o c o m p e t i t o r s as a s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n . T a b l e 1 3 summarizes K e e g a n ' s f i n d i n g s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e r e l a t i v e importance of human s o u r c e s . T a b l e 1 3 . R e l a t i v e Importance of Human S o u r c e s As % of As % of S o u r c e s A l l Sources Human S o u r c e s I n s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n 24% 35% I n t e r n a t i o n a l D i v i s i o n E x e c u t i v e s Abroad 1 5 % 23% I n t e r n a t i o n a l D i v i s i o n E x e c u t i v e s a t Head-q u a r t e r s 5% 8% C o r p o r a t e E x e c u t i v e s 2% 3% Product E x e c u t i v e s 1% 2% O u t s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n 43% 65% S e r v i c e O r g a n i z a t i o n S t a f f 14% 22% Competitors 9% 1 3 % D i s t r i b u t o r s , Consumers, S u p p l i e r s 5% 8% Government O f f i c i a l s and S t a f f • 4% 6% Other Human Sources 1 1 % 16% T o t a l 67% 100% Source: W.J. Keegan, M u l t i n a t i o n a l S c a n n i n g , p. 4 1 5 . - 50 -With r e s p e c t t o documentary s o u r c e s , Keegan found p u b l i c a t i o n s t o be t h e s i n g l e most i m p o r t a n t c a t e g o r y , b u t c o n c l u d e d t h a t p u b l i c a t i o n s a r i s i n g o u t s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n (such a s newspapers and j o u r n a l s ) were a lmost t w i c e a s • • 39 i m p o r t a n t as documents generated w i t h i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n . Furthermore, as f a r as most of t h e e x e c u t i v e s i n K e e g a n ' s sample were concerned, he f e l t t h a t t h e y were not so much s u f f e r i n g from an " i n f o r m a t i o n e x p l o s i o n " as a " p u b l i c a t i o n s o v e r l o a d " . Many of them e x p r e s s e d c o n s i d e r a b l e " f r u s t r a t i o n a t t h e d i f f i c u l t y i n t r y i n g t o keep up w i t h t h e o u t p o u r i n g of p u b l i c a t i o n s " . 4 0 L i k e A g u i l a r b e f o r e him, Keegan found t h a t few companies had bothered t o implement any formal system of m o n i t o r i n g t h e f l o o d of p u b l i c a t i o n s t h e y r e c e i v e d . Nor was t h e r e any attempt made t o u t i l i z e computer-based systems t o d e a l w i t h t h i s documentary o v e r l o a d ( f o r example, through t h e use of o n - l i n e a b s t r a c t i n g s e r v i c e s ) . I n s t e a d , most of t h e comprehensive computer-based i n f o r m a t i o n systems t h a t Keegan observed were "almost e x c l u s i v e l y concerned w i t h i n t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n " such as a c c o u n t i n g and f i n a n c i a l d a t a . 4 1 Perhaps i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t Keegan a l s o confirmed A g u i l a r ' s e a r l i e r f i n d i n g t h a t , l a c k i n g a formal documentary s c a n n i n g system, most e x e c u t i v e s ended up r e a d i n g the same l i m i t e d number of p u b l i c a t i o n s a s t h e i r - 51 -c o l l e a g u e s , and i n t h e p r o c e s s , l e f t many p o t e n t i a l l y u s e f u l s o u r c e s u n m o n i t o r e d . 4 2 F i n a l l y , w i t h r e s p e c t t o " p h y s i c a l phenomena" or d i r e c t o b s e r v a t i o n , Keegan found t h a t 9 0% of t h e i n f o r m a t i o n exchanges r e p o r t e d i n t h i s c a t e g o r y o c c u r r e d w h i l e t h e respondents were t r a v e l l i n g a b r o a d . 4 3 Keegan observed t h a t w h i l e t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n was o f t e n a v a i l a b l e from o t h e r s o u r c e s , i t needed some s o r t of d i r e c t s e n s o r y involvement b e f o r e i t r e g i s t e r e d as p o t e n t i a l l y i m p o r t a n t . I n f a c t , Keegan has w r i t t e n elsewhere t h a t t h e g r e a t e s t t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e "communication of i n f o r m a t i o n i s not an e l e c t r o n i c d e v i c e , but a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n n o v a t i o n , t h e j e t a i r c r a f t " . 4 4 Not o n l y does i t p e r m i t f a c e - t o - f a c e communication between e x e c u t i v e s , but i t a l s o f a c i l i t a t e s t h e a p p a r e n t l y e s s e n t i a l p r o c e s s of d i r e c t p h y s i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n of t h e environment as w e l l . Support f o r Keegan's o b s e r v a t i o n about t h e importance of a c o r p o r a t i o n ' s o v e r s e a s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s as s o u r c e s of e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n can a l s o be found i n t h e work of s e v e r a l Canadian a u t h o r s . For example, E . V. H i r d , f o r m e r l y p r e s i d e n t of GTE L e n k u r t E l e c t r i c Company Canada L t d . (which was s u b s e q u e n t l y a c q u i r e d by the B . C . Telephone Company) wrote t h a t t h e v e r y b e s t i n f o r m a t i o n on f u t u r e e x p o r t c o n t r a c t s " i s advance i n f o r m a t i o n from the l o c a l - 52 -r e p r e s e n t a t i v e or a g e n t . I f he i s a c t i v e , he w i l l have had p r i o r d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h t h e customer on t h e p r o j e c t and w i l l have a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount of background i n f o r m a t i o n -d e t a i l s which a r e not n e c e s s a r i l y p r e s e n t e d i n t h e f o r m a l A t e n d e r documents". A d d i t i o n a l s u p p o r t f o r K e e g a n ' s f i n d i n g s can be found i n a s t u d y of t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e and investment d e c i s i o n s of 54 Canadian f i r m s undertaken by J . W . C . Tomlinson f o r t h e f e d e r a l Department of I n d u s t r y , Trade and Commerce. 4 6 Tomlinson c o n c l u d e d t h a t "the most important s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g v a r i o u s l o c a l s i t u a t i o n s were t h e p a r e n t f i r m ' s own e x e c u t i v e s who were f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e l o c a l scene (30%) and l o c a l c o n t a c t s ( 2 8 % ) " . 4 7 With r e s p e c t t o t h e t y p e of l o c a l c o n t a c t s r e p o r t e d as b e i n g t h e most important s o u r c e , 27 p e r c e n t of the respondents c i t e d l o c a l a g e n t s and d i s t r i b u t o r s of t h e i r p r o d u c t s , 2 0 p e r c e n t c i t e d l o c a l e x p o r t customers, 2 7 p e r c e n t r e p o r t e d b e i n g approached by p r o s p e c t i v e l o c a l p a r t n e r s , and t h e r e m a i n i n g 2 6 p e r c e n t were d i v i d e d between l o c a l b a n k e r s , government o f f i c i a l s , a s s o c i a t e d f i r m s and r e l a t i v e s . I n t e r e s t i n g l y enough, i n c o n t r a s t t o t h e importance t h a t Keegan a t t a c h e d t o c o m p e t i t o r s as a s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n , Tomlinson found t h a t " i n f o r m a t i o n from c o m p e t i t o r s was r a r e l y o b t a i n e d . . . and such i n f o r m a t i o n was not even c o n s i d e r e d i n making t h e 4 8 f o r e i g n investment d e c i s i o n . " - 53 -Tomlinson a l s o found t h a t w h i l e C a n a d i a n f i r m s were f a i r l y " s e l f - r e l i a n t " i n t h e g e n e r a t i o n of d a t a needed f o r t h e i r f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n s , " u n s o l i c i t e d i n f o r m a t i o n was q u i t e important i n 24% of t h e s i t u a t i o n s ; of t h e s e . . t h e m a j o r i t y of s o u r c e s were p r i v a t e (80%) and t h e remainder c o n s t i t u t e d i n f o r m a t i o n r e c e i v e d v i a t h e C a n a d i a n or h o s t c o u n t r y g o v e r n m e n t s " . 4 9 Thus, T o m l i n s o n ' s s t u d y l e n d s f u r t h e r support t o t h e n o t i o n advanced e a r l i e r by A g u i l a r and Keegan t h a t , one of the most important s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n an e x e c u t i v e can c u l t i v a t e i s a network of c o n t a c t s and a c q u a i n t a n c e s who know h i s i n t e r e s t s and i n f o r m a t i o n needs and who w i l l u n d e r t a k e t o p a s s on t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n i n a f a i r l y r e g u l a r and u n s o l i c i t e d way (or f a i l i n g t h a t , c o n t a c t s who w i l l a t l e a s t s t a n d r e a d y t o p a s s on t h e i r c a n d i d v i e w s , i f so r e q u e s t e d ) . I n a l a t e r a r t i c l e , Tomlinson touches upon one of t h e main problems c o n f r o n t i n g Canadian businessmen hoping t o t a k e advantage of f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s : t h e i r i n h e r e n t d i s a d v a n t a g e v i s - a - v i s t h e m u l t i n a t i o n a l s , a t l e a s t so f a r as "the a b i l i t y t o d i s c o v e r , scan and e v a l u a t e o p p o r t u n i t i e s a b r o a d " . 5 0 Tomlinson goes on t o p o i n t out t h a t " i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n systems a r e one of t h e main advantages of t h e m u l t i n a t i o n a l s , e n a b l i n g them not o n l y t o spot o p p o r t u n i t i e s . . . but a l s o t o a r r i v e a t a more - 54 -r e a l i s t i c (and u s u a l l y more o p t i m i s t i c ) assessment of t h e r i s k i n v o l v e d " . 5 1 The c o r o l l a r y b e i n g , t h a t b e c a u s e so few Canadian f i r m s have reached m u l t i n a t i o n a l s t a t u s , t h e y w i l l g e n e r a l l y be found t o be o p e r a t i n g a t an i n f o r m a t i o n a l d i s a d v a n t a g e i n comparison t o t h e i r l a r g e r , more m u l t i n a t i o n a l , c o m p e t i t o r s . Tomlinson a l s o found t h a t the most i m p o r t a n t and t r u s t e d s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n on f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s and c o n d i t i o n s were t h e e x e c u t i v e s i n the f i r m f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e c o u n t r y i n q u e s t i o n and l o c a l c o n t a c t s i n t h e t a r g e t market . On t h e q u e s t i o n of e s t a b l i s h i n g t h o s e v a l u a b l e l o c a l c o n t a c t s , Tomlinson o f f e r e d t h e s i m p l e b u t perhaps d i s c o u r a g i n g a d v i c e t h a t " t h e r e r e a l l y a r e no s u b s t i t u t e s f o r t h e s t e a d y g r i n d of knocking on doors or h a v i n g o n e ' s 52 own p e r s o n n e l t r e a d t h e ground as o f t e n as p o s s i b l e " . Another B r i t i s h Columbia r e s e a r c h e r , M i c h a e l A. G o l d b e r g , a l s o found e v i d e n c e t o support the concept of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s and presence i n the m a r k e t p l a c e a s b e i n g c r i t i c a l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n on b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , i n v e s t m e n t c l i m a t e s and p r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n s . Although w r i t i n g p r i m a r i l y about Overseas Chinese t r a d e and i n v e s t m e n t f lows between S o u t h e a s t A s i a and North America, Goldberg found t h a t " f a m i l y members, f r i e n d s , and [ t r u s t e d ] b u s i n e s s a s s o c i a t e s were by f a r the most important i n f o r m a t i o n - 5 5 -s o u r c e s " . 5 3 Furthermore, w h i l e t h e s e s o u r c e s p l a y e d an important r o l e i n t h e e v a l u a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n on b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , p e r s o n a l v i s i t s t o t h e market were a l s o common and u s u a l l y i n e v i t a b l e i n t h e c a s e of l a r g e r and more 54 complex t r a n s a c t i o n s . J A l t h o u g h Goldberg was, a d m i t t e d l y , w r i t i n g p r i m a r i l y about Overseas C h i n e s e investment f lows i n t o North A m e r i c a , t h e t y p e of h i g h l y p e r s o n a l i z e d C h i n e s e b u s i n e s s s t y l e t h a t he was d e s c r i b i n g c o n t i n u e s t o p r e v a i l i n S o u t h e a s t A s i a . T h e r e f o r e , i f one i s i n t e r e s t e d i n doing b u s i n e s s i n S o u t h e a s t A s i a (and t h a t i n v a r i a b l y means doing b u s i n e s s w i t h t h e Overseas Chinese) t h e n , a c c o r d i n g t o G o l d b e r g , one would be w e l l a d v i s e d t o t r y and e s t a b l i s h some s o r t of " p e r s o n a l " r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h o n e ' s p r o s p e c t i v e p a r t n e r , because o n l y by a c h i e v i n g t h a t p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p can one hope t o a s p i r e t o t h e p o s i t i o n of " t r u s t e d " b u s i n e s s a s s o c i a t e and a l l the o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h a t go w i t h i t . F u r t h e r support f o r the importance of a company's o v e r s e a s management as a source of c r i t i c a l e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n can be found i n the work of p o l i t i c a l r i s k e x p e r t s l i k e Stephen J . K o b r i n . 5 5 K o b r i n , a l t h o u g h not w r i t i n g d i r e c t l y about t h e i s s u e of i d e n t i f y i n g o v e r s e a s b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , was concerned w i t h the c l o s e l y r e l a t e d q u e s t i o n of a s s e s s i n g o v e r s e a s p o l i t i c a l r i s k and, i n - 56 -p a r t i c u l a r , what s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n e x e c u t i v e s were u s i n g t o make t h o s e a s s e s s m e n t s . K o b r i n ' s p r i n c i p a l c o n c l u s i o n was t h a t , "the most important s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n about e x t e r n a l environments abroad i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l f i r m s i s a f f i l i a t e management. Second, managers r e l y on a p e r s o n a l network of human s o u r c e s f o r 56 i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e i r e n v i r o n m e n t s " . " T a b l e 14 summarizes t h e r e s u l t s of K o b r i n ' s s t u d y , i n which he asked managers t o r a t e s e v e r a l p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n on a s c a l e of one t o f i v e (with one b e i n g t h e most important s o u r c e and f i v e b e i n g t h e l e a s t i m p o r t a n t ) . A l t h o u g h K o b r i n ' s work was p r i m a r i l y f o c u s s e d on s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n about p o l i t i c a l r i s k , t h e r e i s a v e r y l a r g e element of commonality between t h e s o u r c e s he found u s e f u l and t h e s o u r c e s p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h e r s found u s e f u l f o r t h e more g e n e r a l i z e d s c a n n i n g of t h e environment f o r i n f o r m a t i o n on b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . - 57 -T a b l e 1 4 . Importance of S o u r c e s P e r c e n t a g e of Respondents Ranking S o u r c e : Source as a 1 S u b s i d i a r y Managers 7 4 . 6% R e g i o n a l Managers 68. 9% C o r p o r a t e H e a d q u a r t e r s P e r s o n n e l 64. 8% Banking Community 44 . 6% E x t e r n a l C o n s u l t a n t s 28. 0% B u s i n e s s P e r i o d i c a l s 24. 4% Other F i r m s 2 2 . 8% Agents and O u t s i d e Counsel 22 . 3% U . S . Embass ies 1 7 . 6% U . S . Domestic Government A g e n c i e s 1 6 . 6% P r o f e s s i o n a l J o u r n a l s 1 4 . 5% Trade A s s o c i a t i o n s 1 3 . 0% I n t e r n a t i o n a l O r g a n i z a t i o n s 1 0 . 9% Newspapers, R a d i o , and T . V . 1 0 . 4% Academics 9. 3% Chambers of Commerce 8 . 3% J o u r n a l i s t s 8. 3% S o u r c e : S . J . K o b r i n , Managing P o l i t i c a l R i s k , p . 1 3 1 . K o b r i n ' s r e s e a r c h , t h e r e f o r e , l e n d s f u r t h e r s u p p o r t t o t h e p r e f e r e n c e s , observed i n e a r l i e r s t u d i e s , f o r p e r s o n a l over documentary s o u r c e s and f o r the company's own "man i n t h e f i e l d " over o t h e r s o u r c e s ( r e g a r d l e s s of whether t h e y a r e i n s i d e or o u t s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n ) . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h e r e l a t i v e l y low r a n k i n g g i v e n t o a g e n t s , p r o f e s s i o n a l j o u r n a l s , t r a d e a s s o c i a t i o n s , academics and j o u r n a l i s t s i n K o b r i n ' s s t u d y . T h i s i s not i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h e a r l i e r s t u d i e s , w i t h the p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n of a g e n t s who f i g u r e d much more p r o m i n e n t l y i n T o m l i n s o n ' s r e s e a r c h . One p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the d i f f e r e n c e c o u l d be, t h a t - 58 -w h i l e a g e n t s a r e an e x c e l l e n t s o u r c e of p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s i n t e l l i g e n c e and news about b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , t h e y may or may not be a s p o l i t i c a l l y a s t u t e as t h e y a r e c o m m e r c i a l l y aware. T h e r e f o r e , w h i l e agents may be v e r y good a t u n c o v e r i n g b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , t h e y may not be of much h e l p i n d e c i p h e r i n g t h e l o c a l p o l i t i c a l s c e n e . T h i s e x p l a n a t i o n , however, does not s i t p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l i n t h e c o n t e x t of ASEAN, where an a g e n t , a lmost by d e f i n i t i o n , needs t o be a t t u n e d t o the l o c a l p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n order t o do h i s j o b p r o p e r l y . The o n l y o t h e r e x p l a n a t i o n t h a t i s i n t u i t i v e l y a p p e a l i n g i s t h a t i n t h e p a r t i c u l a r markets r e f e r r e d t o by K o b r i n ' s r e s p o n d e n t s , p o l i t i c a l s a v v y may not have been a n e c e s s a r y p r e - r e q u i s i t e f o r agency s t a t u s . I n ASEAN, on the other hand, i t s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d an e s s e n t i a l requirement f o r any a g e n t , r e g a r d l e s s of t h e p r o d u c t . Another p o l i t i c a l r i s k a u t h o r , Thomas W. S h r e e v e , a l s o found support f o r t h e importance of c o u n t r y and r e g i o n a l managers as s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n on p o l i t i c a l r i s k and i n t e l l i g e n c e . W r i t i n g i n the Harvard B u s i n e s s Review, Shreeve c a u t i o n e d s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s i n m u l t i n a t i o n a l f i r m s "not [to] i g n o r e t h e r o l e t h a t p l a n t , c o u n t r y , and r e g i o n a l managers can p l a y i n the a n a l y s i s " of f o r e i g n environments and r i s k s . 5 7 Furthermore, when implementing a system t o monitor and e v a l u a t e f o r e i g n p o l i t i c a l r i s k , Shreeve - 59 -c a u t i o n e d s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s t o remember t h a t , " l i n e managers 5 8 a r e t h e b e s t s o u r c e of p r a c t i c a l p o l i t i c a l i n t e l l i g e n c e " . Before p r o c e e d i n g f u r t h e r , i t may be worthwhi le t o b r i e f l y rev iew what t h e r e s e a r c h on s c a n n i n g t h e b u s i n e s s and p o l i t i c a l environment has t o l d us t h u s f a r . F i r s t of a l l , t h e r e seems t o be a f a i r l y w i d e s p r e a d consensus t h a t p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s a r e p r e f e r r e d t o i m p e r s o n a l or documentary s o u r c e s and t h a t s o u r c e s o u t s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a r e g e n e r a l l y more important t h a n s o u r c e s i n s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n . S e c o n d l y , a l l of t h e w r i t e r s reviewed, t h u s f a r , p l a c e a g r e a t d e a l of emphasis on t h e e x e c u t i v e s ' own network of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s and t h e w e a l t h of u n s o l i c i t e d , but v i t a l , i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t i t can stream t o him. Most w r i t e r s a l s o agree t h a t customers , c o l l e a g u e s , b u s i n e s s and p r o f e s s i o n a l a s s o c i a t e s , a g e n t s and d i s t r i b u t o r s a r e a l l important s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n about o p p o r t u n i t i e s and t h r e a t s i n the f i r m ' s e x t e r n a l environment. O p i n i o n i s d i v i d e d , however, over the importance of s u b o r d i n a t e s as a source of i n f o r m a t i o n ( A g u i l a r , f o r example, found them t o be v e r y important w h i l e Keegan d i d n o t ) . S i m i l a r l y , t h e r e i s a d i f f e r e n c e of o p i n i o n over t h e r e l a t i v e importance of o u t s i d e p r o f e s s i o n a l s l i k e b a n k e r s , - 60 -c o n s u l t a n t s and l a w y e r s . Keegan found them t o be i m p o r t a n t , A g u i l a r d i d n o t . O p i n i o n i s , l i k e w i s e , d i v i d e d over t h e importance of c o m p e t i t o r s as a s o u r c e of i m p o r t a n t e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n . Keegan found them i m p o r t a n t , T o m l i n s o n d i d n o t . Whi le documentary s o u r c e s a r e a d m i t t e d l y l e s s u s e f u l t h a n p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s , most a u t h o r s agree t h a t t r a d e j o u r n a l s , t r a d e p u b l i c a t i o n s , and newspapers a r e t h e documentary s o u r c e s of c h o i c e . There i s a l s o f a i r l y widespread agreement i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e t h a t s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s f i n d i t i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t t o keep up w i t h t h e f l o o d of p u b l i s h e d m a t e r i a l which c r o s s e s t h e i r desks e v e r y day. S u r p r i s i n g l y , however, even i n s t u d i e s 2 0 y e a r s a p a r t t h e r e appears t o be v e r y l i t t l e movement towards a formal s y s t e m a t i z a t i o n of t h e s c a n n i n g of b u s i n e s s and commercial p u b l i c a t i o n s . F i n a l l y , t h e r e i s widespread agreement among t h e a u t h o r s c i t e d here t h a t l o c a l c o n t a c t s i n t h e market (whether t h e y be t h e f i r m ' s own e x e c u t i v e s posted o v e r s e a s or l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s and agents) a r e c r u c i a l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n on both o p p o r t u n i t i e s and t h r e a t s i n t h e e x t e r n a l b u s i n e s s environment. I n a d d i t i o n , most s t u d i e s emphasize t h e importance of h a v i n g the f i r m ' s s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s t r a v e l o v e r s e a s t o d i r e c t l y observe f o r - 6 1 -themselves the local situation. As Keegan pointed out, although this information is often available from other sources, it sometimes takes direct personal observation to finally register it as important. - 6 2 -The F o r e i g n D i r e c t Investment D e c i s i o n P r o c e s s : Having d i s c u s s e d , a t some l e n g t h , t h e v a r i o u s i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s u t i l i z e d by e x e c u t i v e s i n t h e i r s c a n n i n g of t h e b u s i n e s s environment, i t may now be u s e f u l t o b r i e f l y r e v i e w t h a t b r a n c h of t h e l i t e r a t u r e which d e a l s w i t h t h e f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s . Whi le t h e l i t e r a t u r e on f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t i s of l e s s d i r e c t r e l e v a n c e t o our l i n e of i n q u i r y t h a n some o t h e r a r e a s of t h e l i t e r a t u r e , a t l e a s t t h r e e a u t h o r s have something s p e c i f i c t o s a y about t h e s o u r c e s used t o g a t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l i n v e s t m e n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Whether or not one a c c e p t s t h e p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n t o e x p o r t i s j u s t t h e f i r s t s t e p i n a long e v o l u t i o n a r y p r o c e s s t h a t u l t i m a t e l y r e s u l t s i n t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a l o c a l m a n u f a c t u r i n g p r e s e n c e o f f s h o r e (and t h e e v i d e n c e on t h i s p o i n t i s c e r t a i n l y mixed) , i t does seem l i k e l y t h a t a t l e a s t some of t h e s o u r c e s used i n a s s e s s i n g p o t e n t i a l f o r e i g n d i r e c t investment o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l l be t h e same a s t h o s e used i n i d e n t i f y i n g o v e r s e a s export o p p o r t u n i t i e s . C e r t a i n l y t h e e a r l y work of Y a i r Aharoni would l e a d one t o such a c o n c l u s i o n . Aharoni examined t h e way i n which s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s i n 38 U . S . manufactur ing c o r p o r a t i o n s made t h e i r i n i t i a l o f f s h o r e investment d e c i s i o n s . Many of Aharoni•s o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e s t i l l v a l i d t o d a y , more t h a n 20 y e a r s a f t e r - 63 -h i s o r i g i n a l i n t e r v i e w s and r e s e a r c h . Perhaps h i s g r e a t e s t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e l i t e r a t u r e on f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t was h i s d e m o n s t r a t i o n of t h e f a c t t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n t o i n v e s t o f f s h o r e i s not always t h e r e s u l t of a l o g i c a l r a t i o n a l assessment of the o p p o r t u n i t i e s a t home and abroad. Sometimes t h e d e c i s i o n t o i n v e s t o f f s h o r e can b e s t be understood by t a k i n g account of the i n d i v i d u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and m o t i v a t i o n s of t h e f i r m ' s key d e c i s i o n makers. V e r y o f t e n , t h e f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n i s made f o r i l l o g i c a l and emotional r e a s o n s ( f o r example, i n one c a s e examined by A h a r o n i , t h e d e c i s i o n t o i n v e s t i n I s r a e l was t a k e n f o r r e l i g i o u s and p a t r i o t i c r e a s o n s , d e s p i t e t h e almost c e r t a i n n e g a t i v e c a s h flow a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i n v e s t m e n t ) . Other t i m e s , t h e d e c i s i o n t o i n v e s t o f f s h o r e can b e s t be d e s c r i b e d as "a t r i p i n t o t h e unknown. I t i s an i n n o v a t i o n . . . a major breakthrough i n t h e normal c o u r s e of e v e n t s " . 5 9 A theme t o which we w i l l r e t u r n , s h o r t l y , i n our review of the l i t e r a t u r e on e x p o r t b e h a v i o u r as a form of i n n o v a t i o n . For t h e moment, however, i t i s A h a r o n i ' s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of t h e v a r i o u s " i n i t i a t i n g f o r c e s " t o t h e f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n t h a t i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t t o u s . A h a r o n i suggested t h a t such f o r c e s c o u l d a r i s e from w i t h i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n (as i n the c a s e of a s t r o n g p e r s o n a l i n t e r e s t on t h e p a r t of the company's founder) or from w i t h o u t . - 64 -Among t h e e x t e r n a l " i n i t i a t i n g f o r c e s " i d e n t i f i e d by A h a r o n i were: t h e " u n s o l i c i t e d " f o r e i g n p r o p o s a l , t h e l o s s of market s h a r e , t h e c o m p e t i t i v e response ( i . e . , r e t a l i a t i n g a g a i n s t t h e s t r o n g p r e s e n c e of a f o r e i g n c o m p e t i t o r i n o n e ' s own d o m e s t i c market by i n v e s t i n g i n t h a t c o m p e t i t o r ' s home m a r k e t ) , and t h e "band wagon" e f f e c t (which A h a r o n i d e s c r i b e d as t h e e m u l a t i o n of a c o m p e t i t o r ' s s u c c e s s f u l move o f f s h o r e ) . 6 0 A h a r o n i a l s o s t r e s s e d the importance of t h e s e e x t e r n a l " i n i t i a t i n g f o r c e s " being known t o t h e management of t h e f i r m . The chances of someone a c t u a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g t h e f i r m i n an o f f s h o r e investment were, he f e l t , d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e n a t u r e of t h e p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p which e x i s t e d between t h e p r o j e c t ' s proponents and t h e s e n i o r management of t h e f i r m . I n f a c t , one of A h a r o n i ' s more i m p o r t a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e l i t e r a t u r e on f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t was h i s f o c u s on t h e complex s o c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n s t a k i n g p l a c e w i t h i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n as i t g r a p p l e d w i t h t h e investment d e c i s i o n . Aharoni b e l i e v e d , f o r example, t h a t i g n o r i n g t h e s o c i a l system i n which t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s was embedded would i n e v i t a b l y l e a d t o m i s c o n c e p t i o n s about i t s t r u e n a t u r e . On t h i s p o i n t , A h a r o n i d i d not b e l i e v e h i m s e l f t o be proposing a n y t h i n g p a r t i c u l a r l y r a d i c a l . On t h e c o n t r a r y , he saw h i s work as a l o g i c a l - 65 -e x t e n s i o n of t h e b e h a v i o r a l approach t o t h e f i r m o r i g i n a l l y pursued by C y e r t and M a r c h . 6 1 Where A h a r o n i p a r t e d company w i t h C y e r t and March, however, was over t h e i r a s s e r t i o n t h a t t h e o n l y way t o a c h i e v e a major change i n t h e d i r e c t i o n of an o r g a n i z a t i o n ( s u c h a s t h e d e c i s i o n t o i n v e s t o f f s h o r e ) was t o change t h e " s u b -c o a l i t i o n " making t h a t d e c i s i o n . 6 2 A h a r o n i f e l t t h a t C y e r t and March i g n o r e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y (so r e a d i l y a p p a r e n t i n h i s own r e s e a r c h ) t h a t a s t r o n g l e a d e r c o u l d g i v e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a new d i r e c t i o n or o r i e n t a t i o n . I n h i s s t u d y , A h a r o n i found "one of t h e r e a s o n s f o r t h e d e c i s i o n t o l o o k abroad was a s t r o n g push from i n s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n by a top e x e c u t i v e " . I n t e r e s t i n g l y enough, d e s p i t e the c o n t i n u e d o u t p o u r i n g of l i t e r a t u r e from government s o u r c e s on f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t , Aharoni " d i d not encounter a s i n g l e c a s e i n which t h i s l i t e r a t u r e had p r e c i p i t a t e d a d e c i s i o n t o l o o k abroad. The p r o p o s a l s which induced such a d e c i s i o n were i n a l l c a s e s p r e s e n t e d o r a l l y and were u s u a l l y supported by d e t a i l e d w r i t t e n documents. They were prepared by somebody known t o t h e e x e c u t i v e s i n the c o r p o r a t i o n , and t h e outcome was m a t e r i a l l y i n f l u e n c e d by the r e l a t i o n s between t h e proposer and the company." 6 4 - 66 -Of t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t A h a r o n i i d e n t i f i e d a s b e i n g i m p o r t a n t , businessmen a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e f o r e i g n market were perhaps t h e most i m p o r t a n t . A l l of A h a r o n i ' s respondents i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y had spoken t o , and p l a c e d g r e a t emphasis on t h e o p i n i o n s o f , businessmen t h a t were a l r e a d y i n t h e m a r k e t . 6 5 A h a r o n i a l s o acknowledged t h e importance of t h e f i r m ' s " i n t e r n a t i o n a l d i v i s i o n " e x e c u t i v e s who were " i n t h e f i e l d " . He f e l t t h a t t h e i r s p e c i a l i z e d knowledge and i n t e r e s t s made them " i m p o r t a n t s u p p l i e r s of i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e e x i s t e n c e of f o r e i g n o p p o r t u n i t i e s " . 6 6 Q u i t e c l e a r l y t h e n , A h a r o n i ' s r e s e a r c h l e n d s f u r t h e r s u p p o r t t o t h e importance of p e r s o n a l over documentary s o u r c e s . I n a d d i t i o n , he r e i n f o r c e s t h e importance of t h e company's "man i n t h e f i e l d " as a s o u r c e of v i t a l i n f o r m a t i o n on new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . F i n a l l y , Aharoni p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of new o f f s h o r e o p p o r t u n i t i e s (whether t h e y were investment r e l a t e d or otherwise) i s not always t h e r e s u l t of a r a t i o n a l ordered s c a n n i n g of t h e b u s i n e s s environment. Sometimes i t comes about as t h e r e s u l t of an e x t e r n a l approach ( i . e . , t h e u n s o l i c i t e d f o r e i g n export o r d e r ) , other t i m e s i t comes about as t h e r e s u l t of a powerful i n t e r n a l " i n i t i a t i n g f o r c e " ( l i k e t h e p r e s i d e n t ' s s t r o n g p e r s o n a l i n t e r e s t i n a p a r t i c u l a r m a r k e t ) . - 67 -R e v i s i t i n g t h e q u e s t i o n of t h e f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 8 0 ' s , Marie W. K e l l y p r o v i d e d a d d i t i o n a l support f o r A h a r o n i ' s b e h a v i o r a l approach and r e i n f o r c e d h i s f i n d i n g s about t h e importance of t h e "man i n t h e f i e l d " a s a key s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n . K e l l y s t u d i e d t h e f o r e i g n investment e v a l u a t i o n p r a c t i c e s of 108 U . S . "Fortune 500" m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s . She d i s c o v e r e d t h a t "the overwhelming m a j o r i t y of f i r m s a n a l y z e d 67 each investment s e p a r a t e l y making a go-no go d e c i s i o n . T h i s , she b e l i e v e d , supported t h e b e h a v i o r a l v iew of investment d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g f i r s t proposed by A h a r o n i . I n a d d i t i o n , K e l l y found t h a t "by f a r t h e most common measurement [of r i s k ] was a s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n . . . t h e companies j u s t i f i e d t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e f o r s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s by [ c i t i n g t h e ] l a c k of r e l i a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n . . . [and] t h e most common adjustment t o r e f l e c t b u s i n e s s r i s k was v a r y i n g t h e r a t e of r e t u r n r e q u i r e d . . . based on e x p e r i e n c e , gut f e e l , and e n l i g h t e n e d i n t u i t i o n of t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r . " 6 8 F i n a l l y , K e l l y found t h a t f o r many f i r m s "the i n i t i a l s u g g e s t i o n f o r a f o r e i g n investment came from l o c a l managers i n response t o o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h e y observed i n t h e i r l o c a l e n v i r o n m e n t " . 6 9 Once a g a i n , her f i n d i n g s supported A h a r o n i ' s e a r l i e r o b s e r v a t i o n s . - 68 -One C a n a d i a n s t u d y on f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t which i s of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t t o our own l i n e of i n q u i r y was conducted by T a l a a t A b d e l - M a l e k , who f o c u s s e d on C a n a d i a n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t i n Western Europe. I n an i n t e r v i e w - b a s e d s t u d y of 34 C a n a d i a n companies and 65 of t h e i r European i n v e s t m e n t s , A b d e l - M a l e k found t h a t a m a j o r i t y of t h e f i r m s : o i n v e s t e d i n Europe p r i m a r i l y t o expand t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s i n t h e f a c e of t r a d e b a r r i e r s or t o defend a t h r e a t e n e d e x p o r t market ; o examined v e r y few a l t e r n a t i v e i n v e s t m e n t l o c a t i o n s ; o d i s p l a y e d a c l e a r p r e f e r e n c e f o r a c q u i s i t i o n s a s opposed t o newly-formed v e n t u r e s ; and o had a d i s t i n c t p r e f e r e n c e f o r f u l l or m a j o r i t y 7 0 ownership of t h e i r European i n v e s t m e n t s . A b d e l - M a l e k a l s o found t h a t i n the e a r l y s t a g e s of t h e o v e r s e a s investment "most v e n t u r e s were h e a v i l y dependent on [ t h e i r ] Canadian p a r e n t s f o r a wide range of r e s o u r c e s " 7 1 I n i t i a l l y , t h e s e p a r e n t - t o - v e n t u r e f lows were dominated by l o n g - t e r m c a p i t a l , t e c h n i c a l know-how, and management know-how. "Where p h y s i c a l r e s o u r c e f lows o c c u r r e d , t h e s e s e r v e d t o s u p p l y v e n t u r e s e i t h e r w i t h f i n i s h e d goods made by t h e - 69 -p a r e n t as a means of e x t e n d i n g t h e f o r m e r ' s p r o d u c t - l i n e or w i t h raw m a t e r i a l s and s e m i - p r o c e s s e d goods where t h e European v e n t u r e became forward i n t e g r a t e d w i t h t h e p a r e n t ' s s y s t e m . " 7 2 Over t i m e , A b d e l - M a l e k found t h a t many of t h e s e p a r e n t - t o -v e n t u r e f lows d e c r e a s e d ( p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e f i n a n c i a l f lows) as t h e European v e n t u r e s matured and became more s e l f -s u f f i c i e n t . However, " t h e r e was a c o n t i n u e d and w i d e s p r e a d flow of t e c h n i c a l know-how". 7 3 With r e s p e c t t o v e n t u r e - t o - p a r e n t f l o w s , A b d e l - M a l e k found t h a t w h i l e t h e r e was t h e u s u a l flow of d i v i d e n d s and r o y a l t i e s " . . . t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t f i n d i n g [was] t h a t a s many a s h a l f t h e sample of p a r e n t f i r m s r e c e i v e d t e c h n i c a l know-how from t h e i r European v e n t u r e s " . 7 4 I n summary, t h e r e f o r e , Canadian d i r e c t investments i n Europe not o n l y p r o v i d e d t h e p a r e n t f i r m s w i t h a ready market f o r raw and s e m i - p r o c e s s e d goods, but a l s o p r o v i d e d a s t e a d y stream of d i v i d e n d s , r o y a l t i e s and t e c h n i c a l know-how. Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t t o our l i n e of i n q u i r y a r e A b d e l -Malek' s f i n d i n g s w i t h r e s p e c t t o the v a r i o u s i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l s t i m u l i which might prompt a f i r m t o " l o o k abroad". I n about 2 0% of h i s sample, Abdel -Malek found t h a t t h e s t i m u l u s t o look abroad came from w i t h i n the company -- 70 -u s u a l l y from t h e f i r m ' s own c h i e f e x e c u t i v e o f f i c e r . I n t h e m a j o r i t y of c a s e s , however, t h e i n i t i a l i n v e s t m e n t s t i m u l u s was e x t e r n a l and came from w i t h o u t t h e company. Such e x t e r n a l s t i m u l i i n c l u d e d "a p r o p o s a l from a f o r e i g n d i s t r i b u t o r or a p r o s p e c t i v e p a r t n e r , or an i n v i t a t i o n from a f o r e i g n government, a l e a d from t h e f i r m ' s b a n k e r s or i n v e s t m e n t d e a l e r s , and so o n " . 7 5 I n l i g h t of t h e o t h e r a u t h o r s reviewed t h u s f a r , one might e q u a l l y expect t o f i n d t h e s e same f o r e i g n d i s t r i b u t o r s p l a y i n g a s i m i l a r l y important r o l e i n u n c o v e r i n g p o t e n t i a l e x p o r t o p p o r t u n i t i e s . A f t e r a l l , i n both c a s e s ( i n v e s t m e n t and e x p o r t ) , t h e f o r e i g n d i s t r i b u t o r p o s s e s s e s t h e k i n d of i n t i m a t e l o c a l market knowledge needed t o i d e n t i f y " p o t e n t i a l l y p r o f i t a b l e o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t h e f i r m " . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e l o c a l d i s t r i b u t o r e n j o y s what A b d e l - M a l e k d e s c r i b e d as "a h i g h l e v e l [of] i n t e r p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t " w i t h both t h e "would-be i n v e s t o r " and the p o t e n t i a l i n v e s t m e n t (or export) o p p o r t u n i t y . F i n a l l y , i t i s a l s o worth n o t i n g t h a t A b d e l - M a l e k f u l l y supported t h e e a r l i e r f i n d i n g s of Keegan w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e g r e a t e r e f f i c i e n c y of p e r s o n a l over impersonal c h a n n e l s f o r t r a n s m i t t i n g investment s t i m u l i . Abdel -Malek found t h a t " v e r y few f i r m s took n o t i c e of the l i t e r a t u r e t h e y r e c e i v e d on f o r e i g n investment i n c e n t i v e s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s u n l e s s t h e f i r m happened t o be a c t i v e l y s e a r c h i n g a t t h e t i m e " . On t h e c o n t r a r y , " t h e e v i d e n c e examined s u g g e s t s t h a t i n t e r p e r s o n a l c h a n n e l s were a more w i d e l y u s e d and a more e f f e c t i v e c o n d u c t o r of f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t s t i m u l i t h a n 7 7 i m p e r s o n a l c h a n n e l s " . More r e c e n t l y , t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic C o o p e r a t i o n and Development (OECD) commissioned a s t u d y of t h e v a r i o u s "new" forms of i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n v e s t m e n t which a r e t a k i n g p l a c e i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . 7 8 The OECD r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l t h e o r i e s of f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t ( i n c l u d i n g A h a r o n i ' s b e h a v i o r a l model) were not a b l e t o a d e q u a t e l y e x p l a i n t h e r i s e of s u c h new forms as non - m a j o r i t y c o n t r o l j o i n t v e n t u r e s , l i c e n s i n g agreements, management and s e r v i c e c o n t r a c t s , p r o d u c t i o n - s h a r i n g arrangements , f r a n c h i s i n g , and i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u b - c o n t r a c t i n g agreements. Among t h e many f a c t o r s examined by t h e OECD s t u d y were t h e d e f e n s i v e r e a c t i o n s of m u l t i n a t i o n a l s t o h o s t c o u n t r y a c c e s s b a r r i e r s , t h e o f f e n s i v e s t r a t e g i e s of m u l t i n a t i o n a l s i n r e s p o n s e t o r a p i d l y c h a n g i n g c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s , t h e i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l of worldwide i n t e r - f i r m c o m p e t i t i o n , t h e r i s e of " t h i r d - w o r l d " m u l t i n a t i o n a l s , t h e emergence of s m a l l and m e d i u m - s i z e d f i r m s on t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s c e n e , t h e g e n e r a l slowdown i n economic growth i n t h e d e v e l o p e d "home" c o u n t r i e s from which f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t has t r a d i t i o n a l l y - 7 2 -f lowed, and t h e m a s s i v e s h i f t s i n f i n a n c i a l a s s e t s a s t h e r e s u l t of t r a d e i m b a l a n c e s . Of i n t e r e s t t o u s , was t h e OECD's f o c u s on "the c r u c i a l r o l e of i n f o r m a t i o n and t e c h n o l o g y i n e x p l a i n i n g f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t " . 7 9 I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e s t u d y o f f e r e d an i n t e r e s t i n g i n s i g h t i n t o why, d e s p i t e t h e o b v i o u s o p p o r t u n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e , s m a l l and m e d i u m - s i z e d f i r m s a r e not moving i n t o t h e d e v e l o p i n g world i n a n y t h i n g l i k e t h e numbers t h a t might be expected g i v e n t h e s e "new" forms of i n v e s t m e n t . The e x p l a n a t i o n o f f e r e d by t h e r e p o r t was t h a t " t h e s e f i r m s s i m p l y l a c k the m a n a g e r i a l r e s o u r c e s and i n f o r m a t i o n n e c e s s a r y t o t a k e advantage of such o p p o r t u n i t i e s . For f i r m s w i t h l i t t l e or no e x p e r i e n c e i n u n f a m i l i a r m a r k e t s , t h e c o s t s , r i s k s , and u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n v o l v e d i n i d e n t i f y i n g and e v a l u a t i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s , l o c a t i n g l o c a l p a r t n e r s , a d a p t i n g t o u n f a m i l i a r l e g a l , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e , l i n g u i s t i c and s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l environments . . . many prove t o be too h i g h . " 8 0 Whi le t h i s i s not a p a r t i c u l a r l y n o v e l o b s e r v a t i o n , i t i s a v e r y good summation of t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s , not o n l y of e v a l u a t i n g a f o r e i g n investment o p p o r t u n i t y but a l s o , of i d e n t i f y i n g and e v a l u a t i n g a new export o p p o r t u n i t y as w e l l . As we have seen, t h e r e i s a f a i r degree of c o n s i s t e n c y between t h e i n s i g h t s o f f e r e d by the environmental s c a n n i n g - 73 -l i t e r a t u r e and t h e work of t h e f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t a u t h o r s reviewed above. C e r t a i n l y both groups r e c o g n i z e t h e importance of " p e r s o n a l " f a c t o r s and r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n t h e d e c i s i o n t o move o f f s h o r e . Both groups acknowledge t h e importance of " p e r s o n a l networks" i n t h e g a t h e r i n g of i n f o r m a t i o n on new or p o t e n t i a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s o v e r s e a s (be t h e y i n v e s t m e n t or e x p o r t o r i e n t e d ) . Both groups agree on t h e importance of t h e f i r m ' s own "man i n t h e f i e l d " a s a s o u r c e of v a l u a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n on l o c a l r i s k s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Although t h e i r r e l a t i v e r a n k i n g of t h e importance of "other f i r m s a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e market" may d i v e r g e s l i g h t l y ( p a r t i c u l a r l y i f t h o s e f i r m s a r e d i r e c t c o m p e t i t o r s ) , both groups agree t h a t t h e s e companies can be u s e f u l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n on l o c a l market c o n d i t i o n s . F i n a l l y , a l l the a u t h o r ' s rev iewed, t h u s f a r , agree t h a t t h e d i f f i c u l t y and c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a c q u i r i n g a c c u r a t e and t i m e l y i n f o r m a t i o n on remote market o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s a major impediment t o moving o f f s h o r e (whether i t be t o export or i n v e s t a b r o a d ) . Furthermore, t h i s impediment i s p a r t i c u l a r l y pronounced f o r s m a l l and medium-s ized e n t e r p r i s e s who may l a c k t h e f i n a n c i a l and i n f o r m a t i o n r e s o u r c e s of the l a r g e r m u l t i n a t i o n a l s . - 74 -D i f f u s i o n of I n n o v a t i o n and I n f o r m a t i o n : As was noted above, s e v e r a l a u t h o r s (Aharoni among them) have suggested t h a t t h e d e c i s i o n t o e x p o r t (or i n v e s t o f f s h o r e ) can sometimes be thought of a s an " i n n o v a t i o n " or a f u n d a m e n t a l l y new form of c o r p o r a t e b e h a v i o u r . T h e r e f o r e , i t seems worthwhi le t o b r i e f l y c o n s i d e r what h a s been w r i t t e n about t h e c h a n n e l s and s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n used i n t h e d i s s e m i n a t i o n of i n n o v a t i o n s and new i n f o r m a t i o n . Thomas J . A l l e n , f o r example, i n a l o n g - t e r m s t u d y of t h e c h a n n e l s of communication used i n d i s s e m i n a t i n g new t e c h n o l o g y and i n f o r m a t i o n , n o t i c e d t h a t t h e r e was a d e c i d e d d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e c h a n n e l s of i n f o r m a t i o n used by s c i e n t i s t s as opposed t o e n g i n e e r s and t e c h n i c i a n s . "The s c i e n t i s t s . . . c o n c e n t r a t e d t h e i r a t t e n t i o n h e a v i l y upon t h e l i t e r a t u r e and upon c o l l e a g u e s o u t s i d e t h e i r l a b o r a t o r y o r g a n i z a t i o n . The e n g i n e e r s spread t h e i r a t t e n t i o n more e v e n l y over t h e c h a n n e l s and r e c e i v e d i d e a s from two s o u r c e s unused by t h e s c i e n t i s t s , [ i . e . , vendors and c u s t o m e r s ] " . 8 1 The d i f f e r e n c e i n approaches, A l l e n a t t r i b u t e d t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e n a t u r e of t h e two groups. S c i e n t i s t s , i n o r d e r f o r t h e i r work t o be v a l i d a t e d and a c c e p t e d , must p u b l i s h t h e i r work i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e and s u b j e c t i t t o t h e s c r u t i n y of t h e i r p e e r s . E n g i n e e r s and t e c h n o l o g i s t s , on t h e o t h e r - 75 -hand, a r e much more i n t e r e s t e d i n p r a c t i c a l r e s u l t s and l e s s i n c l i n e d t o worry about e x t e r n a l v e r i f i c a t i o n of t h e i r work. Of t h e two groups examined by A l l e n , one would e x p e c t businessmen t o d i s p l a y an i n f o r m a t i o n s e a r c h p r o f i l e more l i k e t h a t of e n g i n e e r s and t e c h n i c i a n s t h a n s c i e n t i s t s . A f t e r a l l , businessmen a r e , i f n o t h i n g e l s e , t h e supreme p r a g m a t i s t s . T h i s e x p e c t a t i o n a p p e a r s , i n f a c t , t o have been borne o u t , i f one compares T a b l e 1 5 (which summarizes A l l e n ' s f i n d i n g s ) w i t h t h e e a r l i e r work of A g u i l a r , Keegan, and t h e o t h e r w r i t e r s concerned w i t h t h e s c a n n i n g of t h e b u s i n e s s environment. - 76 -T a b l e 1 5 . S o u r c e s of Messages R e s u l t i n g i n T e c h n i c a l I d e a s i n T e c h n o l o g i c a l and S c i e n t i f i c P r o j e c t s T e c h n o l o g i c a l S c i e n t i f i c Source or Channel Used No. of Messages Produced L i t e r a t u r e 53 Vendors 1 0 1 Customers 1 3 2 Other E x t e r n a l Sources 67 Lab T e c h n i c a l S t a f f 44 Company R e s e a r c h Programs 37 A n a l y s i s & Exper imen-t a t i o n 2 1 6 P r e v i o u s P e r s o n a l E x p e r i e n c e 56 T o t a l 706 No. of Percentage Messages P e r c e n t a g e of T o t a l Produced of T o t a l 8% 14% 19% 9% 6% 5% 3 1 % 8% 100% 18 0 0 5 1 __7 35 5 1 % 0 0 14% 3% 3% 9% 20% 100% S o u r c e s : T . J . A l l e n , Managing the Flow of Technology, p . 45. L i k e t h e businessman, the engineer / technician p r e f e r s p e r s o n a l t o n o n - p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s and f i n d s v e n d o r s , customers, and o t h e r e x t e r n a l s o u r c e s t o be p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l . The s c i e n t i s t , on t h e other hand, draws a b s o l u t e l y n o t h i n g from t h e customer or the vendor and r e l i e s much more h e a v i l y on t h e n o n - p e r s o n a l l i t e r a t u r e and h i s c o l l e a g u e s o u t s i d e t h e l a b o r a t o r y f o r h i s i n f o r m a t i o n and Q O v e r i f i c a t i o n . - 77 -The s i m i l a r i t i e s between t h e i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s u s e d by businessmen and e n g i n e e r / t e c h n i c i a n s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y pronounced when one compares t h e u t i l i z a t i o n of " p e r s o n a l " v e r s u s " n o n - p e r s o n a l " s o u r c e s and " i n t e r n a l " v e r s u s " e x t e r n a l " s o u r c e s . T a b l e 16 summarizes A l l e n ' s r e s u l t s i n t h e same manner as A g u i l a r ' s and K e e g a n ' s e a r l i e r work. T a b l e 1 6 . Sources of I n f o r m a t i o n E n g i n e e r / S o u r c e s S c i e n t i s t s T e c h n i c i a n s P e r s o n a l 37% 56% N o n - p e r s o n a l * 63% 44%. T o t a l 100% 100% I n t e r n a l 3 5% 50% E x t e r n a l *_£5% 50% T o t a l 100% 100% * p r i m a r i l y t h e l i t e r a t u r e S o u r c e : T . J . A l l e n , Managing the Flow of T e c h n o l o g y , p . 35 A l l e n ' s o b s e r v a t i o n s were v e r y s i m i l a r t o t h o s e found i n a l a r g e r and more e x t e n s i v e study of 1900 e n g i n e e r s and s c i e n t i s t s i n 1 3 r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e s undertaken by R i c h a r d S. Rosenbloom and F r a n c i s W. Wolek. Rosenbloom and Wolek were a l s o l o o k i n g a t the d i f f u s i o n of i n n o v a t i o n s and new i d e a s and concluded t h a t "work which has a p r o f e s s i o n a l f o c u s draws h e a v i l y on s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n e x t e r n a l t o t h e u s e r ' s o r g a n i z a t i o n ( i . e . , on the l i t e r a t u r e and - 78 -p r o f e s s i o n a l s employed i n o t h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s ) . C o n v e r s e l y , work which h a s an o p e r a t i o n a l f o c u s seldom draws on e x t e r n a l s o u r c e s , r e l y i n g h e a v i l y on i n f o r m a t i o n which i s a v a i l a b l e w i t h i n t h e employing o r g a n i z a t i o n . 1 , 8 3 Once a g a i n , t h e r e i s a p a r a l l e l between t h i s f i n d i n g and t h e f i n d i n g s of A g u i l a r , Keegan, and o t h e r s who observed t h a t t h e company's own man i n t h e f i e l d ( i . e . , an employee w i t h i n the o r g a n i z a t i o n ) i s o f t e n t h e b e s t s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n about a p a r t i c u l a r market. Human s o u r c e s were a l s o g i v e n g r e a t weight i n t h e i n f o r m a t i o n c h a n n e l s s t u d i e d by Rosenbloom and Wolek. They wrote t h a t people p l a y an important p a r t i n t h e " i n f o r m a t i o n t r a n s f e r p r o c e s s both by p r o v i d i n g i n f o r m a t i o n d i r e c t l y and by r e f e r r i n g u s e r s t o o t h e r s o u r c e s " . 8 4 Once a g a i n , t h e r e a r e s t r i k i n g p a r a l l e l s w i t h t h e p e r s o n a l networks of e x e c u t i v e c o n t a c t s r e f e r r e d t o i n e a r l i e r s t u d i e s on t h e s c a n n i n g of t h e b u s i n e s s environment. T a b l e 1 7 summarizes Rosenbloom's and Wolek's f i n d i n g s . I t s g e n e r a l c o n s i s t e n c y w i t h A l l e n ' s r e s u l t s (as summarized i n T a b l e 16) i s r e a d i l y apparent . - 79 -T a b l e 1 7 . S o u r c e s U t i l i z e d bv S c i e n t i s t s and E n g i n e e r s S o u r c e s S c i e n t i s t s E n g i n e e r s I n t e r p e r s o n a l Documentary 43% * 57% 62% 38% T o t a l 100% 100% I n t e r n a l t o f i r m E x t e r n a l t o f i r m 33% * 67% 63% 37% 100% 100% * p r i m a r i l y p r o f e s s i o n a l j o u r n a l s S o u r c e : R. S . Rosenbloom and F . W. Wolek, Technology and I n f o r m a t i o n T r a n s f e r , p. 3 5 . Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , t o our r e s e a r c h i s t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t " i n t e r p e r s o n a l communication and l o c a l s o u r c e s were used s i g n i f i c a n t l y more f r e q u e n t l y when t h e respondent c o n s i d e r e d h i m s e l f i n e x p e r i e n c e d i n t h e s o u r c e d i s c i p l i n e . . . He must [ f i r s t ] f i n d out where t o l o o k . I n t h a t c a s e , he i s l i k e l y t o r e l y on some person whom he c o n s i d e r s e x p e r i e n c e d i n t h e f i e l d i n q u e s t i o n " . 8 5 I n e s s e n c e , t h i s v a l i d a t e s our own r e s e a r c h approach. For example, i f one i s u n c e r t a i n as t o how t o approach t h e ASEAN market or even how t o l e a r n about what o p p o r t u n i t i e s might e x i s t i n i t , t h e n one s h o u l d f i r s t approach someone who has been t h e r e (and p r e f e r a b l y someone who has been s u c c e s s f u l i n t h a t market) and a s k them what s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n t h e y found t o be u s e f u l . - 80 -I n 1 9 6 7 , t h e N a t i o n a l A e r o n a u t i c s and Space A d m i n i s t r a t i o n (NASA) a l s o g r a p p l e d w i t h t h e q u e s t i o n of how i n f o r m a t i o n ( i n t h e i r c a s e , t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n ) becomes d i f f u s e d throughout an o r g a n i z a t i o n and by what c h a n n e l s . I n a s t u d y • 8 6 c a r r i e d out f o r NASA by t h e Denver R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e , v a r i o u s i n f o r m a t i o n c h a n n e l s were e v a l u a t e d on a s c a l e of 0 t o 100 (with 100 b e i n g t h e most important s o u r c e and 0 b e i n g t h e l e a s t important s o u r c e ) . The r e s u l t s , once a g a i n , conf irmed t h e overwhelming importance of " p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s " as t h e p r i m a r y c h a n n e l f o r t h e t r a n s m i s s i o n of new t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n . T a b l e 1 8 , summarizes t h e r e s u l t s of t h e Denver R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e ' s NASA s t u d y . T a b l e 1 8 . Sources of I n f o r m a t i o n (NASA) Source R a t i n g ( S c a l e 0 t o 100) P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s T e c h n i c a l J o u r n a l s F i r m L i b r a r i e s B u s i n e s s P u b l i c a t i o n s E x h i b i t i o n s and Conferences T e x t s and Handbooks E x t e r n a l L i b r a r i e s A b s t r a c t i n g S e r v i c e s I n f o r m a t i o n C e n t r e s S o u r c e : Kung, R i t t e l and Schwuchow, Methods of A n a l y s i s and E v a l u a t i o n of I n f o r m a t i o n Needs, p . 3 3 . 70 50 40-60 48 40 24 10 7 2 Kung, e t a l . , concluded t h a t "the f o r m a t i o n of i n v i s i b l e -or even b e t t e r - v i s i b l e c o l l e g e s (networks of d i r e c t communication among people d e a l i n g w i t h r e l a t e d or s i m i l a r - 81 -problems) s h o u l d be one of t h e most i m p o r t a n t p u r p o s e s of an i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m " . 8 7 Furthermore, t h e Denver R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e s t u d y h e l p e d demonstrate t h a t " t r a d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n s e r v i c e s such as l i b r a r i e s , documentat ion c e n t r e s , e t c . p r o v i d e o n l y a s m a l l f r a c t i o n of t h e 8 8 i n f o r m a t i o n a c t u a l l y used by problem s o l v e r s . . . " The importance of p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s i n t h e d i s s e m i n a t i o n of i n n o v a t i o n s i s n o t , i n any way, r e s t r i c t e d t o developed c o u n t r i e s o n l y . I n an i n t e r e s t i n g d e p a r t u r e from t h e u s u a l s t u d i e s of t h e d i f f u s i o n p r o c e s s i n western economies, A r t h u r G e r s t e n f e l d and Lawrence H. W o r t z e l s t u d i e d t h e p r o c e s s of i n n o v a t i o n i n s e v e r a l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . T h e i r c o n c l u s i o n was t h a t , "as i n p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s i n developed c o u n t r i e s , . . . t h e major i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e was p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t " . 8 9 G e r s t e n f e l d ' s and W o r t z e l ' s f i n d i n g s a r e summarized i n T a b l e 1 9 . - 82 -Table 19. Sources of Information Used in Successful Innovation in Developing Countries Printed Materials Textbooks Published Articles Supplier Catalogues Total Personal Contact Fellow Employees (same company) Colleagues Outside Company (but in country) Colleagues Outside Company (outside country) Suppliers or Contractor Personnel Total Source: Gerstenfeld and Wortzel, Strategies Innovation, p. 66. Interestingly enough, when Gerstenfeld and Wortzel looked at Taiwan, their conclusions as to the principal source of information on new innovations very closely paralleled the findings of Michael A. Goldberg almost 20 years later in his work on the investment activities of the Overseas Chinese. 9 0 They found, for example, that "colleagues outside the organization and outside Taiwan . . . represent a network of Overseas Chinese who are regularly called upon to track and identify technological product and process developments of q potential interest to the Taiwanese firm". Number Percent of Total 6 8% 16 22% 11 15% 33 45% 15 20% 5 7% 13 18% 7 10% 40 55% - 83 -A recent study by William L. Shanklin on the marketing of innovative high-technology products also highlights the importance of personal over non-personal sources. Shanklin found that the most productive sources of new product ideas were the firm's present customers. In fact, he found that "four of the five most productive sources of new product ideas for high-technology [were] market-driven - asking customers, unsolicited customer suggestions, watching [the] competition, and a company's own sales representatives. Moreover, their usefulness confirms that a company's own sales force is its best arm for market intelligence gathering. 1 , 9 2 Shanklin also provided a very detailed list of sources used by his respondents to find new sales prospects. Once again, it provides several clues as to what we might expect to find with respect to B.C. companies trying to identify business opportunities in ASEAN. Table 20, details the sources, identified by Shanklin in his study. ! ) Table 20. - 84 -Sources Used to Find Names of Prospects Source Sales people from your firm (but not selling in your line of business) Referrals from satisfied customers Sales people from your firm (who are selling in your line of business) Engineering departments of potential customers Obtaining one or more names from each person you contact during the day Responses to your company 1s ads in trade publications Local trade shows Civic meetings, cocktail parties, and other social events Industrial directories Business related articles in newspapers or journals Lists bought from brokers Local chambers of commerce Professional society meetings Often or Occasionally Used Source 93% 91% 88% 85% 63% 59% 57% 49% 45% 31% 27% 21% 19% Almost Always Find Source Effective 48% 50% 24% 21% 25% 4% 8% 2% 8% 1% 5% 5% 1% Source: W.L. Shanklin, Marketing High Tech, p. 54. - 85 -To briefly summarize, the literature on the diffusion of innovation, like the literature on scanning the business environment, clearly demonstrates the importance of personal over documentary sources of information. Regardless of whether the respondents were scientists, technologists, or salesmen, they all demonstrated a clear preference for drawing their information and leads from what Kung et al., called a "visible college" or network of contacts. Colleagues, customers, and sales representatives were all highly utilized sources. Newspapers, journals and periodicals, on the other hand, scored rather poorly as sources of information (except among scientists, who placed an inordinate amount of emphasis on the scientific literature as a source of both information and professional legitimacy). Therefore, if one accepts the proposition that exporting is, in itself, a form of innovative behaviour, then one should expect to see some of these same sources of information figuring prominently in the literature on the export initiation process as well. - 86 -Export Initiation Behaviour: There is a close link between the literature on the diffusion of innovation and that branch of the literature which views the export initiation process as a form of innovative and entrepreneurial behaviour. Wayne G. Broehl, for example, wrote about extending Joseph Schumpeter's original definition of the entrepreneur to include "the opening of a new market - new to a given country, regardless of whether it has existed before . . .". 9 3 In fact, Broehl went one step further and speculated about the emergence of an "information entrepreneur" in the less developed world. Someone, who would act as a conduit for the flow of new ideas and information from the developed to the less developed world and, ultimately, initiate a compensating flow of products from the less developed to the developed world. Broehl's description of the abilities of this "less developed entrepreneur" seems equally applicable to the developed country entrepreneur capable of spotting opportunities in the less developed world. Broehl wrote that, "central to the kit of abilities of a great many of these people is their ability to search out, grasp and utilize the massive amounts of new information becoming available around the world." 9 4 - 87 -Pre-dating Broehl, by several years, was the work of Kenneth Simmonds and Helen Smith who wrote that "entry into the export market is just as much an innovation as the adoption of a new production process . . . so there is every reason to suspect that many of the findings concerning other types of innovation will apply to it". 9 5 Simmonds' and Smith's observations were based on their study of nine British firms. Their interest was focused primarily on the initial export order and the circumstances leading up to it. All nine firms were small manufacturing units and they operated in a variety of industries from industrial chemicals to the production of poultry processing machinery. Exports as a percentage of total sales ranged from 1% to 70%, but in most cases averaged around 50%. Contrary to their initial expectations (of internal export initiation) Simmonds and Smith found that "for six of the nine firms the first export order was generated from outside the firm . . . in two cases the order was initiated by the 9 6 parent corporation and in four cases by a customer". Simmonds and Smith did, however, find support for that part of their initial hypothesis which focussed on the role of a particular innovator or "change-agent" in the export initiation process. They found, for example, that the change agent was invariably widely travelled and displayed i "an attitude of almost complete unconcern for national - 88 -Q1 boundaries where business was concerned". They called this attitude "a supra-national outlook". Woo-Young Lee and John J. Brasch also wrote about exporting as the adoption of an innovative behaviour. They, in turn, studied the export decision-making process of 35 small Nebraska manufacturers. They concluded, again contrary to their original hypothesis, that an "innovation-oriented adoption process" (i.e., knowledge about a market opportunity in a foreign market or improved technical knowledge about exporting) was significantly more important than a "problem-oriented adoption process" (i.e., making the decision to export because of a mature product, increased domestic competition or decreasing domestic sales and profits). 9 8 This they attributed to the high level of activity on the part of "change agents" such as government agencies, banks, and other export agencies and "programs which provide awareness about international marketing opportunities and operating procedures to non-exporting manufacturers". 9 9 However, Lee and Brasch also found that the majority of the firms studied used a "non-rational" export decision-making process. In other words, "they did not consult with expert authorities; they did not collect much information in either a quantitative or qualitative sense; and they had only vague - 89 -justifications for getting themselves involved in exporting". 1 0 0 In attempting to explain this rather surprising result, Lee and Brasch offered several possibilities. First of all, since the average size of the firms studied was small, they hypothesized that the export decision may have been made by an "entrepreneurial type of president" who did not have much time available before a decision had to be made. Second, "there may have been a naive attraction to the romance of foreign business that resisted careful analysis". 1 0 1 Third, the companies may simply have accepted the word of outside "change agents", such as government export promotion agencies, about the prospects for their products oversees without doing much follow-up research themselves. To summarize, Lee and Brasch's findings stress the "relatively greater importance of awareness of opportunities for innovation - rather than the analysis of [internal] i o? problems - as an initiating force in export adoption. That awareness can be increased by "change agents" (including export promotion agencies) and, in fact, "change agents are critical in about two-thirds of export adoption i m decisions". "LUJ In the mid to late 1970's, a flurry of articles began to appear in the international business literature dealing with - 90 -pre-export activity, export behaviour, and the internationalization of the firm. Among the more prominent authors writing on these subjects were Warren J. Bilkey - an American, and Jan Johansen, Jan-Erik Vahlne and Finn Wiedershiem-Paul - three Swedes. The work of these authors is worth reviewing because of the light it sheds on the sources of information used in securing export orders. Warren J. Bilkey, for example, studied the export behaviour of 423 small and medium-sized Wisconsin manufacturing firms. His purpose in doing so was to explain the usefulness of a "stages" model of export behaviour. The model he considered involved six export "stages": Stage One: management is not interested in exporting and would not even fill an unsolicited export order. management would fill an unsolicited export order, but makes no effort to explore the feasibility of exporting. Stage Two: Stage Three Stage Four: Stage Five: Stage Six: of exporting. the firm exports on an experimental 1 some "psychologically" close country. j l J_ ill a n o a ^ c i i . w w » country and adjusts exports optimally to changing exchange rates, tariffs, etc. management explores the., feasibility of exporting to additional countries that are psychologically further a w a y . 1 0 4 - 91 -The results of Bilkey's study surprised many people. In the face of a growing body of literature which had focussed on the characteristics of the export decision-maker, Bilkey found, instead, that the "most important single determinant of whether or not . . . firms entered Export Stage Four -exported experimentally - was the receipt or non-receipt or an unsolicited initial export o r d e r " . 1 0 5 For approximately 60% of the exporting firms in Bilkey's study, the initial export order was totally unsolicited. In other words, it was the unexpected or unsolicited order that set the majority of these firms on the export path, not the ordered rational scanning of potential export markets, or the push of declining profits in the domestic market, or the international vision of some dynamic senior executive. Bilkey concluded, therefore, that the export development of a firm does indeed appear to proceed in accordance with a stages model and that size does not appear to be a particularly important determinant of export behaviour (once the quality and dynamism of management has been taken account of). Support for Bilkey's observations about the importance of the "unsolicited export order" in propelling firms into the export market can be found in the work of Claude L. Simpson Jr. and Duane Kujawa. 1 0 6 Their study of 120 manufacturing firms in Tennessee (50 of whom were exporters) found that - 92 -"the external stimulus most frequently cited [as initiating export activity] was the unsolicited order from a foreign customer. 1 0 7 Eight-two percent of the exporting firms in 1 0 8 • their study were exposed to such a stimulus." As m Bilkey's study, most of the firms interviewed by Simpson and Kujawa did not undertake any serious analysis of the possible opportunities available in the export market. Instead, they began to export in response to an unexpected, but well timed, order from abroad. "In nearly every instance they had no specific idea why they had received 1 r\Q such an order. Simpson and Kujawa went on to point out that simple exposure to an "external stimuli", like an unsolicited export order, was not, in itself, sufficient to move a firm into exporting. Instead, there are a number of other intervening valuables which influence a firm's decision to export. Simpson and Kujawa identified three factors of particular importance: the firm's perception of the risks involved in exporting; the firm's perception of the potential profits available; and the firm's perception of the costs involved in moving into the export market. Bilkey subsequently published an excellent review of the literature on export behaviour. 1 1 0 In it he summarized the role of change-agents (both external and internal) on the - 93 -export decision process, discussed internal management attitudes and characteristics, reviewed the firm's competitive advantage, home market conditions, and a whole host of other possible motivations for exporting. Of particular interest, was what Bilkey had to say about the perceived obstacles to exporting. His survey indicated that "the most frequent serious obstacles to exporting . . . are: insufficient finances, foreign government restrictions, insufficient knowledge about foreign selling opportunities, inadequate product distribution abroad and a lack of foreign market connections". 1 1 1 Unfortunately, Bilkey does not offer any suggestions as to how to overcome the two shortcomings of particular interest to us: insufficient knowledge of overseas market opportunities and the lack of foreign market connections. Bilkey does, however, help put in perspective the vast body of literature on export initiation. He offers three major conclusions regarding the export behaviour of firm. "One is 11 ? that exporting is essentially a developmental process", which may be visualized as either a learning process or as a series of export stages. Two, the probability of a firm advancing from one stage to the next is dependent upon an ever-changing menu of factors. For example, the transition from Stage Two to Stage Three (i.e., to actively exploring the feasibility of exporting) depends upon the firm's own - 94 -international orientation, its management's impressions concerning the profitability of exporting, and its confidence in the firm's ability to compete. The transition from Stage Three to Stage Four, on the other hand, (i.e., to exporting on an experimental basis) primarily depends upon whether or not the firm has received an unsolicited export order. And three, that, "export profiles can be formulated; but they should be used in conjunction with export behaviour models to achieve their potential. That is, properly developed export profiles . . . could be used by government export promotion agencies, by banks, by export agents, and so on to identify non-exporters with a high potential for becoming exporters. Limited resources for export promotion . . . could then be concentrated on high export potential firms". 1 1 3 Jan Johanson and Jan-Erik Vahlne were also very interested in the internationalization of the firm. They focussed their attention on the firm's "gradual acquisition, integration, and use of knowledge about foreign markets and operations, and on its successively increasing commitment to foreign markets". 1 1 4 Underlying their work was a basic assumption that the lack of specific market knowledge is a | fundamental barrier to the internationalization of the firm. This assumption, in turn, rests upon their empirical } observations of Swedish firms as they moved into the | i l - 95 -international marketplace. To Johanson and Vahlne, this process appeared to proceed in a series of incremental steps. As they described it, "typically, firms start exporting to a country via an agent, later [they] establish a sales subsidiary, and eventually, in some cases, begin production in the host country" 1 1 5 Not satisfied with just describing what they had observed, Johanson and Vahlne sought to explain it as well. Why, for example, did the internationalization process appear to follow an incremental path? Their conclusion, which they felt followed in the tradition of A h a r o n i 1 1 6 and Cyert and M a r c h , 1 1 7 was that "internationalization decisions have an incremental character . . . largely due to [the] lack of market 118 information and the uncertainty occasioned thereby". In other words, the decision to move into the export market is really only a variation on the firm's response to any new environmental change. In both cases, the firm searches for new information and solutions in incremental steps. Of great help in this internationalization process is, what Johanson and Vahlne have called, "experiential knowledge"; in other words, knowledge which is gained by direct personal experience. Unlike the domestic market, where executives ; can gain such experiential knowledge over a lifetime of activity, "in foreign operations . . . they have no such > basic experiential knowledge to start with. It must be - 96 -119 gained successively during operations in the country". Alternatively, as Johanson and Vahlne readily admit, "it may be possible to hire personnel with market experience and to use them profitably after some time in the marketing activities. The delay is occasioned by the need for the new 12 0 personnel to gain the necessary experience in the firm". From our perspective, therefore, Johanson and Valhne add even further support to the observation that the firm's own personnel in the field are a key source of information on new market opportunities. Companies without these key personnel can either "grow" these market-experienced personnel internally or "buy" them from the outside (and train them in the company's own way of doing things). Either way, these individuals constitute a vital source of information on overseas business opportunities. Finn Wiedershiem-Paul, Hans C. Olson and Lawrence S. Welch, in turn, focussed their attention on the "pre-export" activities of the firm and its relationship to the internationalization p r o c e s s . 1 2 1 The model they developed stressed, among other things, such factors as the characteristics of the decision-maker, the environment that the company functions in, the "extra-regional expansion" of the firm, and its information seeking activities. It is this latter component, in particular, which is of the greatest interest to our line of inquiry. - 97 -W i e d e r s h i e m - P a u l , Olson and Welch s t r e s s e d t h e importance of f a c e - t o - f a c e c o n t a c t s i n t h e p r e - e x p o r t phase of i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g . They wrote, f o r example, t h a t " d i r e c t p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s a r e p r e f e r a b l e when t h e exchange of i n f o r m a t i o n i n v o l v e s u n c e r t a i n t y . . . [and] t h e e x p o r t s t a r t can be c a t e g o r i z e d as an o r i e n t a t i o n p r o c e s s and i s , t h e r e f o r e , e s p e c i a l l y dependent on f a c e - t o - f a c e c o n t a c t s and o t h e r t y p e s of i n f o r m a l c o n t a c t s . " 1 2 2 I n f a c t , W i e d e r s h i e m - P a u l , e t a l . , b e l i e v e d t h a t i f one wished t o i d e n t i f y which f i r m s a r e t h e most l i k e l y t o become e x p o r t e r s , t h e n one need o n l y examine t h e i r c u r r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n s e e k i n g b e h a v i o u r . Those f i r m s which a r e c u r r e n t l y i n v o l v e d i n some form of p r e - e x p o r t i n f o r m a t i o n s e e k i n g a c t i v i t y a r e a l s o t h o s e f i r m s 12 3 most l i k e l y t o become new e x p o r t e r s . The importance of d i r e c t f a c e - t o - f a c e p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s i n t h e export i n i t i a t i o n p r o c e s s i s not something c o n f i n e d t o Swedish and American f i r m s a l o n e . A number of y e a r s e a r l i e r , M.T. Cunningham and R . I . S p i e g e l , i n a s t u d y of 48 B r i t i s h e x p o r t award w i n n e r s , found t h a t " . . . p e r s o n a l v i s i t s by e x e c u t i v e s t o o v e r s e a s markets a r e r a t e d most important by a v e r y l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of a l l s i z e s of f i r m s . . . [and] s e r v e as s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n i n d e v e l o p i n g t h e a p p r o p r i a t e p r o d u c t , i n a s s e s s i n g t h e r i s k s i n t h e market, - 98 -i n m o t i v a t i n g a g e n t s and a l s o i n t h e a c t u a l p r o c e s s e s of 124 s a l e s n e g o t i a t i o n s and customer l i a i s o n " . Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t t o our s t u d y of t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e on b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e ASEAN e x p o r t market i s t h e f i n d i n g by Cunningham and S p i e g e l t h a t " w h i l s t 80% of respondent f i r m ' s mentioned t h a t t h e y r e c e i v e d p u b l i s h e d i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g e x p o r t s , t h e r e was no commendation of such a s o u r c e as s i g n i f i c a n t i n e x p o r t m a r k e t i n g , and f a r g r e a t e r importance was a t t a c h e d t o t h e l e s s formal i n f o r m a t i o n emanating from p e r s o n a l v i s i t s ( 2 8 % ) , a g e n t ' s r e p o r t s ( 2 5 % ) , o v e r s e a s s t a f f ( 16%) and a s s o c i a t e d s u b s i d i a r y companies ( 1 3 % ) " . 1 2 5 As we have a l r e a d y seen, t h i s p r e f e r e n c e f o r p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s over documentary s o u r c e s appears t o be f a i r l y c o n s i s t e n t a c r o s s w i d e l y v a r y i n g g e o g r a p h i c a r e a s and has c l e a r l y h e l d t r u e f o r t h e Swedish, B r i t i s h and American s t u d i e s rev iewed, t h u s f a r . The t a s k which remains , t h e r e f o r e , i s t o determine whether or not t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s a l s o h o l d t r u e f o r Canadian f i r m s . S t a n R e i d (most r e c e n t l y of the U n i v e r s i t y of A l b e r t a ) h a s been r e s e a r c h i n g the export e n t r y d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s f o r w e l l over 10 y e a r s . He has c o n s i s t e n t l y fo l lowed what he c a l l s a •j i^ y* " b e h a v i o u r a l approach t o export d e c i s i o n making". T h i s approach has l e d him, a f t e r a c a r e f u l review of t h e - 99 -l i t e r a t u r e , t o c o n c l u d e t h a t " . . . t h e a v a i l a b l e e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e p o i n t s c o n c l u s i v e l y t o t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r ' s a t t i t u d e , e x p e r i e n c e , m o t i v a t i o n , and e x p e c t a t i o n s a s p r i m a r y d e t e r m i n a n t s i n f i r m s engaging i n f o r e i g n market a c t i v i t y " . 1 2 7 T a b l e 2 1 summarizes R e i d ' s d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e e x p o r t a d o p t i o n p r o c e s s . I t i n v o l v e s the u s u a l s t a g e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e a d o p t i o n of any i n n o v a t i o n : awareness, i n t e n t i o n , t r i a l , e v a l u a t i o n , and a d o p t i o n . Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t t o our r e s e a r c h , i s R e i d ' s c o n c l u s i o n t h a t "the b a s i c export a d o p t i o n p r o c e s s can be c o n s i d e r e d t o 12 8 b e g i n w i t h a problem or o p p o r t u n i t y r e c o g n i t i o n s t a g e " and "an emphasis on an i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g approach t o e x p o r t a d o p t i o n b e h a v i o u r seems t o be t h e most f r u i t f u l 129 t h e o r e t i c a l framework t h a t r e s e a r c h e r s can adopt " . . . " . R e i d , t h e r e f o r e , s t r e s s e d t h a t p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be p a i d t o "the a c q u i s i t i o n of e x p o r t - r e l a t e d i n f o r m a t i o n . . . t h e i n t e g r a t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n of such i n f o r m a t i o n , and t h e w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c t on i t " . 1 3 0 Q u i t e l o g i c a l l y , R e i d then t u r n e d h i s a t t e n t i o n t o t h e q u e s t i o n of how f i r m s a c q u i r e t h i s e x p o r t - r e l a t e d i n f o r m a t i o n and what e f f e c t i t has on t h e i r e x p o r t e n t r y d e c i s i o n s . I n a 1984 study of 89 s m a l l O n t a r i o e x p o r t e r / Table 21. Export Behaviour As an Adoption of Innovation Process EXPORT ADOPTION STAGES Stage 1 Export Awareness problem or opportunity recognition, arousal of need Stage 2 Export Intention motivation, atti tude, beliefs, and expectancy about export contribution Stage 3 Export Trial personal experi-ence from limited exporting Stage 4 Export Evaluation results from engaging in exporting Stage 5 Export Acceptance adoption of ex-porting/rejection of exporting DECISION MAKER Variables Involved past experi-ence export-related or not; type, level, & amount of foreign information exposed to, and associated individual characteris-tics, un-solicited foreign orders expectations from entry into foreign market, foreign market orientation, export orienta-tion and under-. lying attitudes toward foreign involvement sought foreign orders through search of foreign markets profitability, sales stab?lity export expansion activity shown by continued export growth as: (1) in-creased exports as a percentage of sales; (2) continued entry into new markets; (3) continued absolute export growth; (4) con-tinued introduction of new products into export markets o o FIRM Variables Involved past firm performance, reputation, and visibility managerial goals and existing firm resources unsolicited foreign orders, existence of available managerial and financial resources results from engaging in export behaviour Source: Stan L. Reid, "The Decision-Maker and Export Entry and Expansion," Journal of International Business Studies (Fall 1981): p. 103. - 1 0 1 -m a n u f a c t u r e r s , R e i d found t h a t , c o n t r a r y t o e a r l i e r o b s e r v a t i o n s i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e t h a t s m a l l f i r m s were r e l a t i v e l y lower u s e r s of export programs and i n c e n t i v e s , f i r m s i n h i s s t u d y were, i n f a c t , v e r y d i s c r i m i n a t i n g u s e r s 1 3 1 of a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e s of f o r e i g n market i n f o r m a t i o n . R e i d found t h a t 63% of t h e f i r m s he s t u d i e d had used a t l e a s t 3 or 4 d i f f e r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s i n t h e i r l a s t e x p o r t market r e s e a r c h e f f o r t . Furthermore, 9 1 % of t h e f i r m s he i n t e r v i e w e d had conducted such an e x p o r t market i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i t h i n t h e l a s t two y e a r s . Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , was R e i d ' s f i n d i n g t h a t " f i r m s i n t h e same i n d u s t r y " and "the Department of I n d u s t r y , Trade and Commerce" were t h e two most f r e q u e n t l y c i t e d s o u r c e s i n t h e s e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s . 1 3 2 R e i d a l s o found "overwhelming agreement (91% of sample) on the importance of p e r s o n a l v i s i t s t o f o r e i g n markets f o r g a t h e r i n g export i n f o r m a t i o n " . 1 3 3 T a b l e 22 summarizes R e i d ' s f i n d i n g s on t h e r e l a t i v e importance of t h e v a r i o u s export i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s . i i i - 102 -T a b l e 2 2 . Importance of S e l e c t e d Export I n f o r m a t i o n S o u r c e s (% of Respondents Ranking a s : ) Not Source Important C a n a d i a n M a n u f a c t u r e r s 1 A s s o c i a t i o n 49.4% C a n a d i a n E x p o r t e r s A s s o c i a t i o n 5 2 . 8 % P r o v i n c i a l Trade Development Branch 4 0 .4% F e d e r a l Department of I n d u s t r y , Trade and Commerce 2 2 . 5 % P e r s o n a l V i s i t s t o F o r e i g n Markets 6 . 7 % Other F i r m s i n t h e Same I n d u s t r y 3 2 . 6 % S o u r c e : S t a n D. R e i d , I n f o r m a t i o n A c q u i s i t i o n and E x p o r t E n t r y D e c i s i o n s i n Smal l F i r m s , p . 1 5 1 . I t would be a m i s r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of R e i d ' s r e s e a r c h , however, t o imply t h a t o n l y one or two s o u r c e s were used i n t h e e x p o r t i n f o r m a t i o n s e a r c h . On the c o n t r a r y , he found t h a t government export programs, g e n e r a l r e a d e r s h i p of media c a r r y i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n , p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l e x h i b i t i o n s , and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l membership a l l had an e f f e c t on t h e export market e n t r y d e c i s i o n . I t was j u s t t h a t " p e r s o n a l v i s i t s to the market" c l e a r l y stood out from a l l t h e o t h e r s as an important and h i g h l y u t i l i z e d s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n . Moderately V e r y Important I m p o r t a n t 2 3 . 6 % 2 1 . 4 % 2 3 . 6 % 2 3 . 6 % 2 4 . 7 % 3 4 . 8 % 2 8 . 1 % 4 9 . 4 % 2 . 2 % 9 1 . 1 % 2 5 . 8 % 4 1 . 6 % - 103 -Roger H a y t e r (of Simon F r a s e r U n i v e r s i t y ) i s a n o t h e r a u t h o r v e r y much concerned w i t h the export p o t e n t i a l and e x p o r t b e h a v i o u r of C a n a d i a n f i r m s , p a r t i c u l a r l y western C a n a d i a n f i r m s . I n a number of a r t i c l e s over t h e l a s t h a l f dozen y e a r s , he has attempted t o c a t e g o r i z e western C a n a d i a n 134 e x p o r t e r s a c c o r d i n g t o a " s t a g e s " t y p e of model. Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , i s H a y t e r ' s o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t "a l a c k of a p p r o p r i a t e and t i m e l y i n f o r m a t i o n about e x p o r t market o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s the most s i g n i f i c a n t c o n s t r a i n t f a c i n g C a n a d i a n e x p o r t e r s " 1 3 5 H a y t e r went on t o d i s c u s s , a t some l e n g t h , t h e p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s of t h i s k i n d of e x p o r t market i n f o r m a t i o n , b u t stopped s h o r t of o f f e r i n g any r e l a t i v e r a n k i n g of t h e i r importance. Among the p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s he i d e n t i f i e d were: f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l government e x p o r t market ing i n f o r m a t i o n s e r v i c e s and programs ( i n c l u d i n g C a n a d a ' s o v e r s e a s t r a d e c o m m i s s i o n e r s ) , t h e o v e r s e a s " l i s t e n i n g p o s t s " of C a n a d a ' s major f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , t h e E x p o r t Development C o r p o r a t i o n , t r a d i n g h o u s e s , and o t h e r p r i v a t e s e c t o r c o m p a n i e s . 1 3 6 H a y t e r made a number of other v e r y u s e f u l c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e s t u d y of western Canadian export b e h a v i o u r . F i r s t of a l l , he attempted t o i n t r o d u c e a system f o r c l a s s i f y i n g t h e export c a p a b i l i t y of western Canadian m a n u f a c t u r e r s . S e c o n d l y , he made i t c l e a r t h a t as the r e s u l t of some r a t h e r - 104 -u n i q u e e n v i r o n m e n t a l endowments, western C a n a d i a n m a n u f a c t u r e r s have become q u i t e good a t a d a p t i n g t h e i r machinery t o t h e i r s u r r o u n d i n g s , and i t i s t h i s " d i s t i n c t t e c h n o l o g i c a l c a p a c i t y . . . [which] has p r o v i d e d t h e b a s i s of A l b e r t a ' s and B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s e x p o r t s u c c e s s i n end p r o d u c t s " 1 3 7 T h i r d l y , H a y t e r s t r e s s e d t h a t e x p o r t s t i m u l a t i o n programs must be s e n s i t i v e t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e needs and r e s o u r c e s of f i r m s w i l l v a r y depending upon which • 13 8 s t a g e of t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n p r o c e s s t h e y a r e m . I n o t h e r words, because so many western C a n a d i a n m a n u f a c t u r e r s a r e e i t h e r a t the uncommitted or i n i t i a l s t a g e of e x p o r t m a r k e t i n g , t h e government's e x p o r t promotion e f f o r t s must f o c u s on t h e p r o v i s i o n of e x p o r t market i n f o r m a t i o n and a s s i s t a n c e t o e s t a b l i s h key e x p o r t market c o n t a c t s . F i n a l l y , H a y t e r has p o i n t e d out t h a t "a fundamental weakness i n (western) C a n a d a ' s attempts t o enhance manufactured e x p o r t s i s t h e f a i l u r e by f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l p o l i c y - m a k e r s t o a p p r e c i a t e t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s 139 between e x p o r t i n g and d i r e c t f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t " . To d a t e , both l e v e l s of government have tended t o v iew f o r e i g n d i r e c t investment as being of pr imary b e n e f i t o n l y t o t h e h o s t c o u n t r y , without r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t i t i s both an i n e v i t a b l e s t a g e i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n p r o c e s s of t h e f i r m and an e x c e l l e n t source of i n f o r m a t i o n on f u t u r e export and investment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n the h o s t c o u n t r y . - 105 -Other C a n a d i a n s t u d i e s of i n t e r e s t i n c l u d e a 1984 s t u d y of 5 1 s m a l l and m e d i u m - s i z e d Quebec e x p o r t e r s by J e a n - E m i l e D e n i s and D a n i e l D e p e l t e a u which f o c u s s e d on t h e l i n k a g e s between export expansion and i n f o r m a t i o n a c q u i s i t i o n . 1 4 0 Denis and Depelteau d i s t i n g u i s h e d between two t y p e s of market i n f o r m a t i o n : market i n t e l l i g e n c e and market r e s e a r c h . I t was t h e i r c o n t e n t i o n t h a t s m a l l and m e d i u m - s i z e d e x p o r t e r s r a r e l y i n v e s t i n a c t u a l market r e s e a r c h , b u t i n s t e a d concern themselves w i t h g a t h e r i n g t h e more g e n e r a l market i n t e l l i g e n c e . Denis and D e p e l t e a u a l s o determined t h a t w h i l e e x p o r t e r s " a c q u i r e d i r e c t i n t e l l i g e n c e on s p e c i f i c market d a t a (market s i z e or growth, import p r o c e d u r e s and r e q u i r e m e n t s , e t c . ) from s p e c i a l i z e d or n o n - s p e c i a l i z e d agents or s o u r c e s . I n d i r e c t i n f o r m a t i o n i s g a t h e r e d i n t h e c o u r s e of b u s i n e s s t r a n s a c t i o n s abroad . . . or by p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n e v e n t s such as i n t e r n a t i o n a l f a i r s and b u s i n e s s m i s s i o n s " . 1 4 1 Denis and D e p e l t e a u c o n c l u d e d t h a t i t was t h i s l a t t e r " i n d i r e c t " i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g a c t i v i t y which was the most important f a c t o r i n f l u e n c i n g t h e e x p o r t expansion p r o c e s s . I n t e r e s t i n g l y enough, D e n i s and D e p e l t e a u found t h a t e x p e r i e n c e d e x p o r t e r s r e l i e d l e s s on t r a d e f a i r s and m i s s i o n s than d i d new e x p o r t e r s . Furthermore, e x p e r i e n c e d e x p o r t e r s were more d i v e r s i f i e d i n t h e i r e x p o r t markets and used s l i g h t l y more i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s (a l though the a b s o l u t e number of i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s used, appeared t o p l a y a v e r y minor r o l e i n t h e e x p o r t - 106 -e x p a n s i o n p r o c e s s ) . More i m p o r t a n t l y , however, t h e y found t h a t " i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g proves t o be a c o n s t a n t d e t e r m i n i n g f a c t o r i n t h e p r o c e s s of e x p o r t e x p a n s i o n . . . [and] t h e e x p o r t e r ' s most v a l u a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n i s o b t a i n e d i n t h e f i e l d , i n t h e c o u r s e of b u s i n e s s t r a n s a c t i o n s r a t h e r t h a n through o f f i c i a l l y e s t a b l i s h e d i n f o r m a t i o n s e r v i c e s , whether p u b l i c or p r i v a t e " . 1 4 2 I t i s o n l y through a p h y s i c a l p r e s e n c e i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e t h a t D e n i s and D e p e l t e a u b e l i e v e d t h e e x p o r t e r c o u l d " c u l t i v a t e b u s i n e s s c o n t a c t s ; g a i n t h e a t t e n t i o n and t r u s t of f o r e i g n a s s o c i a t e s ; a c q u i r e a f i r s t - h a n d f e e l of t h e market ( i t s p r e f e r e n c e s , p r a c t i c e s and customs) and d i s p l a y a v a i l a b l e 143 p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s t o p o t e n t i a l b u y e r s " . F u r t h e r support f o r D e n i s ' and D e p e l t e a u ' s c o n c l u s i o n s about t h e importance of a p h y s i c a l p r e s e n c e i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e can be found i n a 198 6 Coopers and Lybrand s t u d y of t h e B r i t i s h Columbia c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g i n d u s t r y . 1 4 4 I n t h a t s t u d y , "the s u r v e y respondents s t r o n g l y emphasized t h e importance of a l o c a l p r e s e n c e , e i t h e r i n the form of a l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e or a t i e t o a l o c a l f i r m . V i s i t s on a r e g u l a r b a s i s a r e a l s o important t o e s t a b l i s h l o n g - t e r m r e l a t i o n s h i p s . Without t h i s l o c a l presence and r e g u l a r c o n t a c t , t h e r e i s v i r t u a l l y unanimous agreement t h a t a f o r e i g n c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g f i r m s t a n d s l i t t l e , i f any, 145 chance of s u c c e s s . - 107 -One of t h e most e x t e n s i v e s t u d i e s of C a n a d i a n e x p o r t b e h a v i o u r can be found i n a 198 6 r e p o r t by t h e Conference Board of C a n a d a ' s I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s R e s e a r c h C e n t r e e n t i t l e d "Choosing T h e i r Own P a t h s : P r o f i l e s of t h e E x p o r t S t r a t e g i e s of Canadian M a n u f a c t u r e r s " . 1 4 6 The Conference Board s t u d y i n v o l v e d a s u r v e y of 2 54 Canadian e x p o r t e r s ( r e p r e s e n t i n g a r o u g h l y equal mix of s m a l l , medium and l a r g e - s i z e d o r g a n i z a t i o n s ) . Although t h e s t u d y p r o v i d e s an e x c e l l e n t and w i d e - r a n g i n g summary of the v a r i o u s "export s t r a t e g i e s " b e i n g pursued by Canadian m a n u f a c t u r e r s , t h a t p a r t of i t which i s of the g r e a t e s t i n t e r e s t t o us d e t a i l s t h e v a r i o u s p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s of export o r d e r s . , The Conference B o a r d ' s f i n d i n g s , i n t h i s r e g a r d , a r e worth q u o t i n g a t some l e n g t h : " T y p i c a l l y , export o r d e r s a r o s e from a v a r i e t y of s o u r c e s . However, d i r e c t s e l l i n g t o end u s e r s was c i t e d by t h e g r e a t e s t number of respondents a s both a s o u r c e and the prime source of e x p o r t o r d e r s . F i g u r i n g n e a r l y as p r o m i n e n t l y i n t h e g e n e r a t i o n of export o r d e r s were t h e s a l e s e f f o r t s of independent f o r e i g n d i s t r i b u t o r s and import a g e n t s . S a l e s of a f f i l i a t e d companies a l s o p l a y e d 1 47 a major r o l e . " x - 108 -The Conference Board goes on t o p o i n t out t h a t t r a d i n g h o u s e s , and l i n k a g e s w i t h Canadian c o n s u l t i n g , e n g i n e e r i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n f i r m s (or c o n s o r t i a ) appeared t o be of r e l a t i v e l y minor importance i n s e c u r i n g e x p o r t o r d e r s . With s p e c i f i c r e s p e c t t o t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e on e x p o r t o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e ASEAN r e g i o n , perhaps one of t h e b e s t rev iews can be found i n t h e n o t e s p r e p a r e d f o r an A p r i l , 1 9 8 5 , Col loquium on t h e C a n a d i a n Market P r e s e n c e i n ASEAN h e l d a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . 1 4 8 I n a r a t h e r r e f r e s h i n g change of pace from t h e u s u a l c a l l f o r g r e a t e r government s u p p o r t , t h e c o l l o q u i u m c o n c l u d e d t h a t , " . . . Canadian f i r m s and b u s i n e s s a s s o c i a t i o n s must t a k e t h e i n i t i a t i v e i n i n c r e a s i n g and improving Canadian market presence i n the ASEAN r e g i o n . There was [a] consensus t h a t t h e r e i s no p r e s e n t need f o r Canadian f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments t o i n c r e a s e e x p e n d i t u r e s i n t h i s a r e a , and t h a t what i s r e q u i r e d i n s t e a d i s t h e r e a l l o c a t i o n of e x i s t i n g r e s o u r c e s t o i n i t i a t i v e s d e s i g n e d by t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r t o improve export ..149 p e r f o r m a n c e . " Among t h e 22 recommendations put forward by t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h a t c o l l o q u i u m was the s u g g e s t i o n t h a t f i r m s c o n s i d e r t h e f u l l range of p o s s i b l e e n t r y s t r a t e g i e s i n e s t a b l i s h i n g a market p r e s e n c e i n ASEAN ( i . e . , not j u s t e x p o r t i n g b u t - 109 -d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t , l i c e n s i n g , t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r , c o u n t e r t r a d e , t r a d i n g houses , e x p o r t c o n s o r t i a and s h a r e d o f f i c e s ) . With r e g a r d t o t h i s l a t t e r p o s s i b i l i t y ( the s h a r e d o f f i c e c o n c e p t ) , i t was f e l t t h a t such an arrangement would not o n l y reduce t h e c o s t s of m a i n t a i n i n g a f o r e i g n market p r e s e n c e f o r each p a r t i c i p a t i n g f i r m , b u t i t would a l s o h e l p f a c i l i t a t e t h e " i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and r a p i d communication of b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s " 1 5 0 which a r e so e s s e n t i a l t o s u c c e s s i n ASEAN (and i n any o t h e r e x p o r t market f o r t h a t m a t t e r ) . Furthermore, i n a background paper p r e p a r e d p r i o r t o t h e c o l l o q u i u m , the o r g a n i z e r s s t a t e d v e r y c l e a r l y t h a t one of t h e i r b a s i c o p e r a t i n g assumptions i n d i s c u s s i n g a Canadian market p r e s e n c e i n ASEAN was, " t h a t market p r e s e n c e i s s i g n i f i c a n t or c r i t i c a l f o r s u c c e s s f u l Canadian export and i n v e s t m e n t " . 1 5 1 As one of t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s , Mr. Howard Mann, put i t , " t i m e l y i n t e l l i g e n c e i s v i t a l f o r b u s i n e s s s u c c e s s [ i n ASEAN]. You need t o know where t h e c o m p e t i t i o n i s and i t i s no good l e a r n i n g t h a t something i s happening next week. You must know what i s about t o happen". - 110 -smrnnary of L i t e r a t u r e Review: As we have seen, a number of common themes r e a p p e a r throughout t h e l i t e r a t u r e . T h e r e f o r e , b e f o r e t u r n i n g t o a d i s c u s s i o n of p o s s i b l e hypotheses o r , i n d e e d , t o t h e r e s u l t s of our own s u r v e y , i t would be u s e f u l t o b r i e f l y r e v i e w what we have l e a r n e d t h u s f a r . F i r s t of a l l , we have seen t h a t p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n a r e p r e f e r r e d t o n o n - p e r s o n a l or documentary s o u r c e s . S e c o n d l y , s o u r c e s o u t s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n ( p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e e x e c u t i v e ' s own network of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s ) a r e p e r c e i v e d as b e i n g more important t h a n i n t e r n a l s o u r c e s . The o n l y e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s r u l e b e i n g t h e f i r m ' s own i n t e r n a t i o n a l e x e c u t i v e o v e r s e a s or i t s "man i n t h e market" who, a l t h o u g h i n t e r n a l t o t h e f i r m , i s an e x c e l l e n t s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e r i s k s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n the l o c a l m a r k e t p l a c e . T h i r d l y , t h e more s e n i o r t h e e x e c u t i v e i s , the l e s s l i k e l y he i s t o g a t h e r important e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n from p u b l i s h e d s o u r c e s a l o n e , and t h e more l i k e l y he i s t o r e l y on h i s own w e l l developed network of customers and s u p p l i e r s , c o l l e a g u e s and a s s o c i a t e s , agents and d i s t r i b u t o r s . S u b o r d i n a t e s , on the other hand, a r e the s u b j e c t of some debate. Some a u t h o r s see them as an important s o u r c e of - I l l -s t r a t e g i c i n f o r m a t i o n , o t h e r s do n o t . T h e i r r e l a t i v e importance depends on t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e y have been d e l e g a t e d t h e t a s k of s c a n n i n g the environment on b e h a l f of s e n i o r management. I f s e n i o r management h a s come t o r e l y on them t o p a s s a long u s e f u l e x t e r n a l i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e n t h e i r r e l a t i v e importance w i l l have i n c r e a s e d . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t s e n i o r management r e l i e s on i t s own network of o u t s i d e s o u r c e s t o b a c k s t o p and v e r i f y t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p a s s e d a l o n g by i t s s u b o r d i n a t e s , then the r e l a t i v e importance of t h e s u b o r d i n a t e i s d e c r e a s e d . With r e s p e c t t o documentary and p u b l i s h e d s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n , most a u t h o r s agree t h a t t h e r e i s an o v e r l o a d of ' p r i n t e d m a t e r i a l a v a i l a b l e . S u r p r i s i n g l y , however, t h e r e i s v e r y l i t t l e e v i d e n c e , even i n s t u d i e s twenty y e a r s a p a r t , of any s y s t e m a t i c move towards e s t a b l i s h i n g a formal documentary s c a n n i n g system. As a r e s u l t , t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e o v e r l a p i n what e x e c u t i v e s c o n t i n u e t o r e a d , even w i t h i n t h e same f i r m and many p o t e n t i a l l y u s e f u l I s o u r c e s a r e l e f t unread. F i n a l l y , t h o s e i n f o r m a t i o n systems which have been i n t r o d u c e d , are almost e x c l u s i v e l y p r e -o c c u p i e d w i t h a c c u m u l a t i n g i n t e r n a l a c c o u n t i n g and f i n a n c i a l d a t a . i There i s a l s o widespread agreement, i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , about } the importance of having s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s of t h e f i r m - 1 1 2 -r e p e a t e d l y v i s i t t h e market i n q u e s t i o n . Not o n l y does t h i s demonstrate t h e f i r m ' s c o n t i n u e d commitment t o t h e market , b u t i t a l s o h e l p s e s t a b l i s h , through d i r e c t p h y s i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n , t h e importance of f a c t s , which h e r e t o f o r e have not r e g i s t e r e d as i m p o r t a n t . With r e s p e c t t o t h e d e c i s i o n t o l o o k o f f s h o r e (whether i t be i n v e s t m e n t or e x p o r t r e l a t e d ) , t h e l i t e r a t u r e i s f a i r l y c o n s i s t e n t i n i d e n t i f y i n g a number of important i n i t i a t i n g f o r c e s . B r o a d l y s p e a k i n g , t h e s e f o r c e s can a r i s e from w i t h i n t h e f i r m or from w i t h o u t . Sometimes t h e i n d i v i d u a l i n t e r e s t s and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e f i r m ' s key d e c i s i o n makers a r e enough t o prompt the move o f f s h o r e , o t h e r t i m e s i t comes about as a d e f e n s i v e response t o some e x t e r n a l t h r e a t ( i . e . , t h e f e a r of l o s i n g market s h a r e ) . Sometimes t h e move o f f s h o r e can a r i s e f o r e m u l a t i o n r e a s o n s , or what A h a r o n i c a l l e d t h e "band wagon" e f f e c t , ( i . e . , f o l l o w i n g o n e ' s c o m p e t i t o r s o f f s h o r e ) . Other t i m e s , i t can be an a g g r e s s i v e or c o m p e t i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n ( i . e . , r e s p o n d i n g t o a c o m p e t i t o r ' s i n t r u s i o n i n t o your market by moving i n t o h i s ) . There i s a l s o t h e unexpected, u n s o l i c i t e d f i r s t e x p o r t order or f o r e i g n investment p r o p o s a l . While some a u t h o r s i n s i s t t h a t t h i s u n s o l i c i t e d approach r a r e l y comes from someone c o m p l e t e l y unknown t o t h e f i r m , o t h e r s a r e not q u i t e so c e r t a i n . R e g a r d l e s s , a l l p a r t i e s agree t h a t how a f i r m - 113 -responds t o t h i s f i r s t u n s o l i c i t e d p r o p o s a l i s o f t e n a key d e t e r m i n a n t of whether or not i t c o n t i n u e s t o move o f f s h o r e . Because s e v e r a l a u t h o r s have c h a r a c t e r i z e d t h e move o f f s h o r e as a form of " i n n o v a t i o n " or new c o r p o r a t e b e h a v i o u r , we have a l s o reviewed r e l e v a n t p a r t s of t h e l i t e r a t u r e on t h e d i f f u s i o n of i n n o v a t i o n . Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , t h e importance of p e r s o n a l over documentary c h a n n e l s was once a g a i n c o n f i r m e d , as was t h e e x t e n s i v e use of c o l l e g i a l networks t o d i s s e m i n a t e t h e new i n f o r m a t i o n . With t h e e x c e p t i o n of s c i e n t i s t s (who r e l y on the s c i e n t i f i c l i t e r a t u r e t o v a l i d a t e t h e i r work) p r i n t e d documentary s o u r c e s were not found t o be an important c h a n n e l . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s appear t o a p p l y e q u a l l y t o the developed and t h e d e v e l o p i n g world. I n examining t h e l i t e r a t u r e on "export i n i t i a t i o n " we found, once a g a i n , a d i s c u s s i o n of e x t e r n a l and i n t e r n a l i n i t i a t i n g f o r c e s . However, i t seems t h a t a s i m p l e u n s o l i c i t e d o r d e r i s not enough t o move t h e f i r m i n t o an a c t i v e e x p o r t mode. I n s t e a d , t h e r e needs t o be an awareness not o n l y of t h e r i s k s , c o s t s and rewards i n v o l v e d , but a l s o of a p o s s i b l e o p p o r t u n i t y abroad. On t h i s l a s t p o i n t , n e a r l y a l l w r i t e r s a r e i n agreement. I n f a c t , the l a c k of t i m e l y , a c c u r a t e knowledge about f o r e i g n market o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s one of t h e major o b s t a c l e s t o export e n t r y . Other b a r r i e r s t o e n t r y - 114 -i n c l u d e , a l a c k of f i n a n c e s , a l a c k of f o r e i g n market c o n n e c t i o n s (most p a r t i c u l a r l y l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n ) and a l a c k of d i r e c t f o r e i g n market e x p e r i e n c e . Because t h e o n l y way t o g a i n much of t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s by a c t u a l l y b e i n g " i n " t h e market, f i r m s tend t o proceed i n c r e m e n t a l l y and f o c u s t h e i r a t t e n t i o n on i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g . A g a i n , t h e importance of p e r s o n a l f a c e - t o - f a c e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n emerges and we r e t u r n t o our e a r l i e r o b s e r v a t i o n s about t h e importance of a l o c a l market p r e s e n c e as a means t o u n c o v e r i n g new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . With r e s p e c t t o t h e s p e c i f i c e x p e r i e n c e of Canadian and B r i t i s h Columbian f i r m s o v e r s e a s , we found s u p p o r t f o r t h e importance of t h e "export d e c i s i o n maker" - h i s a t t i t u d e s , e x p e r i e n c e , m o t i v a t i o n s and e x p e c t a t i o n s . We a l s o found support f o r t h e emphasis on p e r s o n a l over i m p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s and t h e importance of a p h y s i c a l p r e s e n c e i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e (whether i t was an agent, a d i s t r i b u t o r or an e x p a t r i a t e Canadian e x e c u t i v e s t a t i o n e d a b r o a d ) . The e v i d e n c e , however, was mixed w i t h r e s p e c t t o the r o l e of such e x t e r n a l "change agents" as b a n k e r s , government departments and export a g e n c i e s . While e x h o r t a t i o n s t o export seem t o have a minimal impact a t b e s t , f i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e t o "get t o t h e market" and t o a t t e n d t r a d e f a i r s and m i s s i o n s does seem t o have p l a y e d a p o s i t i v e r o l e i n some c a s e s . S t i l l t h e r e was c o n s i d e r a b l e e v i d e n c e t h a t " . . . t h e p r o c e s s through - 115 -which [Canadian] companies selected foreign markets, a key decision in international operations, was often a 153 superficial one . . . often the result of serendipity". Finally, there was very little evidence, in any of the literature, of firms actually using on-line electronic data bases or information services to uncover business opportunities overseas. Nor was there any evidence of exporters using a scanning or abstracting service to monitor the outpouring of business and trade publications, despite widespread agreement that no one has the time to accurately peruse them all. - 116 -P A R T I I I . D E S I G N O F T H E S T U D Y : E x p e c t a t i o n s and P o s s i b l e Hypotheses: I n l i g h t of t h e i n s i g h t s p r o v i d e d by t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l b u s i n e s s l i t e r a t u r e and t h e r e c e n t t r a d e promotion e f f o r t s of t h e f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments, t h e r e a r e a number of p o s s i b l e hypotheses which come t o mind when one c o n s i d e r s t h e q u e s t i o n of what s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n might be u s e f u l i n u n c o v e r i n g new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. For example, i n l i g h t of t h e c o n t i n u i n g p r o l i f e r a t i o n of e l e c t r o n i c d a t a b a s e s (both p u b l i c and p r i v a t e ) one might r e a s o n a b l y expect t h a t f i r m s which have been s u c c e s s f u l i n p e n e t r a t i n g t h e ASEAN market w i l l be found t o have u t i l i z e d some s o r t of e l e c t r o n i c database i n t h e i r s e a r c h f o r b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . I n f a c t , both t h e f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments have been a c t i v e l y promoting t h e i r computer ized WIN EXPORTS and IBONET d a t a b a s e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , as c o s t e f f e c t i v e ways t o e n t e r the export market. The supposed a t t r a c t i o n of t h e s e e l e c t r o n i c d a t a b a s e s e r v i c e s i s t h a t anyone w i t h a modem and a p e r s o n a l computer can q u i c k l y p l u g i n t o b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s around the w o r l d . But do t h e s e forms of i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g r e a l l y work f o r g e o g r a p h i c a l l y remote markets? One of the purposes of t h i s t h e s i s w i l l be t o d i s c o v e r whether or not B r i t i s h Columbia - 117 " b u s i n e s s e s a c t i v e i n t h e ASEAN market have a c t u a l l y u t i l i z e d t h e s e t y p e s of e l e c t r o n i c d a t a b a s e s i n t h e i r s e a r c h f o r new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Another p o s s i b l e h y p o t h e s i s might be t h a t e x e c u t i v e s of B . C . f i r m s s u c c e s s f u l i n t h e ASEAN market, w i l l be found t o have devoted a l a r g e amount of t h e i r t ime t o r e a d i n g and s c a n n i n g t h e b u s i n e s s l i t e r a t u r e on ASEAN i n an e f f o r t t o u n c o v e r new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . By e x t e n s i o n , a neophyte e x p o r t e r who w i s h e s t o t a p i n t o the a r e a ' s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , need o n l y d i s c o v e r what t h e s u c c e s s f u l e x p o r t e r t o ASEAN i s r e a d i n g and m i r r o r t h e s e r e a d i n g h a b i t s h i m s e l f . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , one might expect t o f i n d a heavy use of f e d e r a l l y and p r o v i n c i a l l y funded export market development programs and t r a d e m i s s i o n s by B . C . f i r m s which have been s u c c e s s f u l i n p e n e t r a t i n g the ASEAN market. S i m i l a r l y , Canadian and i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i d a g e n c i e s might a l s o be expected t o have p l a y e d a l a r g e r o l e i n h e l p i n g B r i t i s h Columbian companies e n t e r the ASEAN market. I n a d d i t i o n , g i v e n the widespread support f o r a " s t a g e s " or " l i f e - c y c l e " model of export i n i t i a t i o n i n the l i t e r a t u r e , one might a l s o r e a s o n a b l y expect t o f i n d e x p o r t e r s moving i n a s t e a d y p r o g r e s s i o n from t h e i r f i r s t " u n s o l i c i t e d " ASEAN export o r d e r towards a more f o r m a l i z e d "export d r i v e " and - 1 1 8 " u l t i m a t e l y towards t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of some s o r t of " l o c a l p r e s e n c e " i n t h e ASEAN market. On t h e o t h e r hand, g i v e n t h e overwhelming importance of t h e American market t o Canada (and t h e t r a d i t i o n a l l y North A t l a n t i c f o c u s of Canadian e x p o r t e r s ) , one might r e a s o n a b l y expect t o f i n d t h a t ASEAN i s of o n l y m a r g i n a l importance t o most B . C . e x p o r t e r s . There may, t h e r e f o r e , be some s o r t of minimum f i r m s i z e or age t h r e s h o l d which must f i r s t be a c h i e v e d b e f o r e e n t r y i n t o t h e ASEAN market can s e r i o u s l y be c o n s i d e r e d . I n l i g h t of t h e r e s e a r c h l i t e r a t u r e t o d a t e , one might a l s o expect t o f i n d a c l e a r p r e f e r e n c e among t h e s u r v e y respondents f o r " p e r s o n a l human s o u r c e s " of i n f o r m a t i o n over " i m p e r s o n a l documentary s o u r c e s " , f o r " i n t e r n a l " over " e x t e r n a l " s o u r c e s , and f o r " p r i n t media" s o u r c e s over " e l e c t r o n i c media" s o u r c e s . U l t i m a t e l y , one s h o u l d expect t o see most, i f not a l l , of t h e s e hypotheses borne out i n the s u r v e y r e s u l t s . T h a t i s , most f i r m s s h o u l d be found t o have moved through a number of i n c r e a s i n g l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d s t a g e s i n t h e i r e n t r y of t h e ASEAN market ( i n terms of both t h e i r e n t r y v e h i c l e and t h e i r s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n ) . Some s o r t of minimum t h r e s h o l d f i r m s i z e s h o u l d a l s o be expected, s i n c e t h i s would - 119 " f a c i l i t a t e t h e c o l l e c t i o n and c o l l a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n from a wide v a r i e t y of p o s s i b l y u s e f u l s o u r c e s (an e x t r e m e l y e x p e n s i v e t a s k , i n i t s e l f ) . A f a i r l y h i g h minimum f i r m s i z e would a l s o e n a b l e t h e f i r m , i n q u e s t i o n , t o m a i n t a i n t h e k i n d of c o n t i n u e d market p r e s e n c e which i s so c r u c i a l t o any s u c c e s s f u l e x p o r t e r ( r e g a r d l e s s of m a r k e t ) . Furthermore, g i v e n t h e enormous sums of p u b l i c money b e i n g expended on government e x p o r t promotion a c t i v i t i e s , one s h o u l d a l s o expect t o see government p r o m o t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s f i g u r i n g p r o m i n e n t l y i n the s u c c e s s f u l p e n e t r a t i o n of t h e ASEAN market by B r i t i s h Columbia f i r m s . F i n a l l y , d e s p i t e t h e i n c r e a s i n g s o p h i s t i c a t i o n and d e c r e a s i n g c o s t of computer ized i n f o r m a t i o n d a t a b a s e s , one s h o u l d not e x p e c t t o see t h i s t y p e of t e c h n o l o g y t o t a l l y s u p p l a n t i n g t h e r e l i a n c e of s u c c e s s f u l e x p o r t i n g f i r m s on a w e l l connected network of human c o n t a c t s r e s i d e n t i n the m a r k e t p l a c e of i n t e r e s t . - 120 -D e f i n i t i o n of Terms; F o r t h e most p a r t , t h e terms encountered i n t h i s t h e s i s a r e used i n a f a i r l y s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d manner. T h e i r d e f i n i t i o n i s g e n e r a l l y t h e same as t h a t i n any s t a n d a r d E n g l i s h language d i c t i o n a r y . There a r e , however, a few n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n s and t h e s e a r e e x p l a i n e d i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l below: ASEAN Stands f o r the A s s o c i a t i o n of S o u t h e a s t A s i a n N a t i o n s . E s t a b l i s h e d i n 1967 as a p o l i t i c a l grouping i n t e n t on m a i n t a i n i n g peace and s e c u r i t y i n s o u t h e a s t A s i a . I t s o r i g i n a l members were T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , S i n g a p o r e , M a l a y s i a , and t h e P h i l i p p i n e s . I n 1 9 7 7 , the ASEAN members expanded t h e i r c o o p e r a t i v e e f f o r t s beyond t h e p o l i t i c a l arena and s i g n e d a P r e f e r e n t i a l T r a d i n g Arrangement extending s i g n i f i c a n t t a r i f f c o n c e s s i o n s among t h e m s e l v e s . Subsequent e f f o r t s t o promote g r e a t e r i n t r a - A S E A N t r a d e have i n c l u d e d the s i g n i n g of an ASEAN - 1 2 1 -I n d u s t r i a l J o i n t V e n t u r e Agreement and an ASEAN I n d u s t r i a l Complementation P r o j e c t s Agreement. On J a n u a r y 7 , 1 9 8 4 , B r u n e i became t h e s i x t h member of ASEAN f o l l o w i n g i t s emergence a s an independent n a t i o n on J a n u a r y 1 , 1 9 8 4 . For t h e purposes of t h i s t h e s i s , t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada d e f i n i t i o n has been f o l l o w e d . T h i s i n c l u d e s a l l t h e c o u n t r i e s of t h e n o r t h P a c i f i c ( i . e . , J a p a n , Korea, C h i n a , Taiwan, and Hong Kong, but not t h e U . S . S . R . ) , t h e i s l a n d s t a t e s of O c e a n i a , A u s t r a l i a , New Z e a l a n d , and t h e I n d i a n s u b - c o n t i n e n t ( i . e . , I n d i a , P a k i s t a n , B a n g l a d e s h , S r i Lanka, N e p a l , and B h u t a n ) , as w e l l as t h e c o u n t r i e s of s o u t h e a s t A s i a ( i . e . , ASEAN, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Burma). Whi le t h i s term i s o f t e n used synonymously w i t h t h e term " P a c i f i c Rim", t h e two a r e not t h e same, - 1 2 2 -s i n c e t h e c o u n t r i e s of t h e I n d i a n s u b c o n t i n e n t do not b o r d e r on t h e P a c i f i c Ocean and c a n n o t , t h e r e f o r e , be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e P a c i f i c Rim. E x p o r t R e f e r s t o t h e s a l e of goods and s e r v i c e s t o customers l o c a t e d o u t s i d e the home c o u n t r y . I t does not i n c l u d e t h e s a l e of goods and s e r v i c e s t o customers l o c a t e d i n o t h e r Canadian p r o v i n c e s . F o r e i g n D i r e c t Investment (FDI) For the purposes of t h i s t h e s i s , i t has been d e f i n e d as a i n v e s t m e n t i n r e a l p h y s i c a l a s s e t s ( i . e . , o f f i c e s , b u i l d i n g s , f a c t o r i e s , e t c . ) o u t s i d e t h e home c o u n t r y as opposed t o a " p o r t f o l i o " investment i n f o r e i g n s t o c k s and bonds which i s p r i m a r i l y d e s i g n e d t o generate investment income or c a p i t a l g a i n s . - 123 -G r o s s Domestic P r o d u c t (GDP) A measure of t h e t o t a l f low of goods and s e r v i c e s produced i n an economy over a s p e c i f i c p e r i o d of t ime ( u s u a l l y measured on a p e r annum b a s i s ) . I t i s d i s t i n g u i s h e d from t h e r e l a t e d term " g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t " or "GNP" because i t does not i n c l u d e t h e income earned by a c o u n t r y ' s n a t i o n a l s working abroad. M u l t i n a t i o n a l s or M u l t i n a t i o n a l C o r p o r a t i o n s (MNCs) B u s i n e s s e s w i t h income g e n e r a t i n g c o r p o r a t e a c t i v i t i e s i n s e v e r a l c o u n t r i e s o u t s i d e t h e i r home c o u n t r y . I t has u s u a l l y , b u t not a lways , been t a k e n t o i n c l u d e t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a p h y s i c a l presence or m a n u f a c t u r i n g f a c i l i t y i n two or more f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . i - 124 -Newly I n d u s t r i a l i z i n g Economies (NIEs) O r i g i n a l l y c a l l e d "NICs" or "newly i n d u s t r i a l i z i n g c o u n t r i e s " , t h e y i n c l u d e Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, S i n g a p o r e , and B r a z i l . Out of d e f e r e n c e t o t h e P e o p l e s ' R e p u b l i c of C h i n a (which c l a i m s s o v e r e i g n t y over Taiwan and Hong Kong), t h e s e f a s t growing r a p i d l y i n d u s t r i a l i z i n g e n t i t i e s a r e now being r e f e r r e d t o as "economies" r a t h e r t h a n " c o u n t r i e s " . R e g a r d l e s s of how one d e s c r i b e s them, t h e y a r e d i s t i n g u i s h e d from o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s by t h e i r h i g h r a t e s of economic growth, t h e i r r a p i d l y expanding m a n u f a c t u r i n g and i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s , t h e i r h i g h l e v e l of e x p o r t p r o p e n s i t y and t h e i r r a p i d l y r i s i n g s t a n d a r d s of l i v i n g . P a c i f i c Rim Although o f t e n used synonymously w i t h the term A s i a P a c i f i c , i t more p r o p e r l y r e f e r s t o t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which border the P a c i f i c Ocean. I n - 1 2 5 -p r a c t i c a l t e r m s , and i n t h i s t h e s i s , i t i s used t o r e f e r o n l y t o t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which b o r d e r t h e western edge of t h e P a c i f i c Ocean, as opposed t o t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which border t h e e a s t e r n edge of t h e P a c i f i c Ocean ( i . e . , Canada, t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , Mexico, C h i l e , e t c . ) S m a l l and Medium-S i z e d Companies I n t h i s t h e s i s , t h e d e f i n i t i o n p u t forward by the F e d e r a l B u s i n e s s Development Bank (FBDB) has been f o l l o w e d . I n o t h e r words, companies w i t h s a l e s under $2 m i l l i o n p e r annum a r e c o n s i d e r e d " s m a l l " , w h i l e companies w i t h s a l e s between $2 m i l l i o n and $20 m i l l i o n per annum a r e c o n s i d e r e d "medium". Over 96% of t h e b u s i n e s s e s i n Canada would, t h e r e f o r e , be c o n s i d e r e d s m a l l a c c o r d i n g t o t h e FBDB. S o u t h e a s t A s i a Western Europe - 1 2 6 -Although o f t e n used t o d e s c r i b e t h e ASEAN n a t i o n s , i t more p r o p e r l y i n c l u d e s t h e n a t i o n s of V i e t n a m , Cambodia and Burma as w e l l . I n t h i s t h e s i s , i t i s used synonymously w i t h t h e term ASEAN. Once a g a i n , t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada d e f i n i t i o n has been f o l l o w e d . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e 1 2 n a t i o n s of t h e European Community ( i . e . , t h e U n i t e d Kingdom, I r e l a n d , Belgium, Denmark, F r a n c e , West Germany, Greece, I t a l y , Luxembourg, t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , P o r t u g a l and S p a i n ) , i t i n c l u d e s G i b r a l t a r , M a l t a , A u s t r i a , F i n l a n d , I c e l a n d , Norway, Sweden and S w i t z e r l a n d . - 127 -Assumptions: Perhaps t h e most important assumption u n d e r l y i n g t h i s s t u d y i s t h e b e l i e f t h a t a major s t u m b l i n g b l o c k f o r most B . C . b u s i n e s s e s , i n t e r e s t e d i n e n t e r i n g t h e ASEAN market , i s t h e i r i n a b i l i t y t o i d e n t i f y an a p p r o p r i a t e b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t y i n t h a t m a r k e t p l a c e . C e r t a i n l y , many f i r m s have come t o t h e i n t e l l e c t u a l c o n c l u s i o n t h a t ASEAN, a s a growing and dynamic r e g i o n , s h o u l d p r e s e n t a p o t e n t i a l o p p o r t u n i t y f o r t h e i r f i r m . The key q u e s t i o n which r e m a i n s , however, i s whether or not t h e y can i d e n t i f y an a p p r o p r i a t e e n t r y o p p o r t u n i t y ? Where s h o u l d a f i r m l o o k f o r t h a t a l l important f i r s t market opening? I t i s t h e u n d e r l y i n g premise of t h i s s t u d y , t h a t t h e b e s t way t o answer t h a t q u e s t i o n i s t o ask t h o s e who have s u c c e s s f u l l y p e n e t r a t e d t h e ASEAN market b e f o r e , how t h e y d i d i t and what s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n t h e y u s e d . The l o g i c a l c o u n t e r argument t o such an approach i s t o p o s t u l a t e t h a t t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN i s not t h e p r i m a r y problem, r a t h e r i t i s the e v a l u a t i o n of a m y r i a d of p o t e n t i a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h a t i s so d i f f i c u l t . The problem i s n o t , t h e r e f o r e , t o uncover new o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN, r a t h e r i t i s t o p r i o r i z e them. Such an a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n must c e r t a i n l y be acknowledged, but i t i s - 128 -n o t , I b e l i e v e , borne out by t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s p a r t i c u l a r s t u d y . A l s o u n d e r l y i n g t h e s u r v e y approach used i n t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t i s t h e b e l i e f t h a t by s t u d y i n g p r i o r b e h a v i o u r and a s k i n g s p e c i f i c a l l y how something was done i n t h e p a s t , one can g l e a n s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n t o be of h e l p i n t h e f u t u r e . Such an o p e r a t i n g assumption a l s o presupposes t h a t what was s u c c e s s f u l i n the p a s t has a t l e a s t some p r o b a b i l i t y of b e i n g s u c c e s s f u l i n t h e f u t u r e . I t must be a d m i t t e d , however, t h a t i n a r a p i d l y c h a n g i n g , t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y dynamic world, t h e s i m p l e - m i n d e d p r o j e c t i o n of p a s t s u c c e s s f u l s t r a t e g i e s i n t o t h e f u t u r e i s not w i t h o u t i t s h a z a r d s and p i t f a l l s . I n order t o a d d r e s s a t l e a s t p a r t of t h i s problem, c o n s i d e r a b l e c a r e was t a k e n t o compare and c o n t r a s t t h e s u r v e y r e s p o n d e n t s 1 i n i t i a l ASEAN e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h t h e i r most r e c e n t ASEAN e x p e r i e n c e s i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h whether or not the s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n o r i g i n a l l y u t i l i z e d , and the e n t r y s t r a t e g i e s i n i t i a l l y employed, had changed over t i m e . I n f a c t , t h e s t u d y went even f u r t h e r and asked the respondents , i n l i g h t of t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e s i n ASEAN, whether or not t h e y expected t h e s e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n and e n t r y s t r a t e g i e s t o c o n t i n u e t o be t h e most important ones i n t h e f u t u r e . Beyond t h a t p r e c a u t i o n , however, i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o see what can be done s h o r t of r e - i n t e r v i e w i n g the respondents a number of y e a r s - 129 -down t h e r o a d t o d e t e r m i n e whether o r not t h e i r s o u r c e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n and e n t r y mechanisms h a v e , i n f a c t , changed. The t h i r d m a j o r a s s u m p t i o n u n d e r l y i n g t h i s s t u d y i s t h a t t h e s e l f - r e p o r t e d r e c o l l e c t i o n s of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s a r e a c c u r a t e and t h a t p e o p l e can r e c o n s t r u c t e v e n t s t h a t happened many y e a r s ago. A d m i t t e d l y , a s k i n g f o r p a s t r e c o l l e c t i o n s of e v e n t s i s a poor second t o a c t u a l l y b e i n g t h e r e t o o b s e r v e and r e c o r d t h e e v e n t s a s t h e y u n f o l d , b u t t h e l a t t e r o p t i o n o b v i o u s l y e n t a i l s a much g r e a t e r commitment of t i m e and r e s o u r c e s t h a n i s u s u a l l y a v a i l a b l e t o t h e r e s e a r c h e r . I n a d d i t i o n , w h i l e s u c h an on - t h e - s p o t o b s e r v a t i o n p r o c e s s may be p o s s i b l e i n a l o n g i t u d i n a l c a s e s t u d y i t i s v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o r e p l i c a t e a c r o s s many f i r m s i n many s e c t o r s . A r e a s o n a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e might be t o a s k f o r a c c e s s t o t h e c o r p o r a t e f i l e s and r e c o r d s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e r e s p o n d e n t ' s i n i t i a l ASEAN market e n t r y . The problem w i t h s u c h an a p p r o a c h , a s i d e from t h e q u e s t i o n of a c c e s s t o c o n f i d e n t i a l c o r p o r a t e f i l e s , i s whether not any of t h e d a t a of i n t e r e s t t o t h i s s t u d y was e v e r a c t u a l l y r e c o r d e d i n t h e c o r p o r a t e f i l e s i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . S e v e r a l r e s p o n d e n t s commented on t h e i r o n y of a s t r a n g e r s e e k i n g t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n when no one i n t h e i r own o r g a n i z a t i o n s had e v e r t h o u g h t t o a s k them how t h e y went about p e n e t r a t i n g t h e ASEAN market i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . Nor had most of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s (as t h e o r i g i n a l i n s t i g a t o r s of t h e i r f i r m ' s ASEAN market e n t r y ) e v e r t h o u g h t - 130 -about p u t t i n g t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e s down on p a p e r . Upon r e f l e c t i o n , most respondents r e a d i l y a d m i t t e d t h a t b e c a u s e t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e s had not been committed t o t h e c o r p o r a t e memory, t h i s p a r t i c u l a r knowledge would p r o b a b l y r e t i r e w i t h them. Of t h e 2 1 respondents i n t e r v i e w e d , o n l y two had e v e r f o r m a l l y s e t down t h e i r ASEAN e x p e r i e n c e s i n a n y t h i n g approaching a comprehensive manner. Of t h e s e two, one had been approached by an e a s t e r n Canadian b u s i n e s s s c h o o l i n t e r e s t e d i n w r i t i n g a c a s e s t u d y of h i s f i r m ' s e n t r y i n t o t h e I n d o n e s i a n market, w h i l e the o t h e r had recounted h i s c a s e h i s t o r y ( a l s o i n v o l v i n g the I n d o n e s i a n market) t o a r e g i o n a l b u s i n e s s magazine. L e s s c r u c i a l , but s t i l l worth e l u c i d a t i n g a t t h i s p o i n t , a r e a number of t h e o t h e r assumptions which u n d e r l i e t h i s s t u d y ' s p e r s o n a l f a c e - t o - f a c e i n t e r v i e w format. F i r s t of a l l , i t was assumed t h a t the respondents were answering t r u t h f u l l y and r e c a l l i n g c o r r e c t l y what had o c c u r r e d i n t h e p a s t . T h i s assumption i s n o t , of c o u r s e , e x c l u s i v e t o a p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w type of format but u n d e r l i e s a lmost any r e s e a r c h approach t h a t does not i n v o l v e d i r e c t o b s e r v a t i o n of t h e r e s p o n d e n t ' s b e h a v i o u r . The o n l y added c o n f i d e n c e t h a t one can have i n the r e s u l t s of a f a c e - t o - f a c e i n t e r v i e w , over other survey formats i s t h a t , because of t h e moral s u a s i o n brought t o bear by the p r e s e n c e of t h e i n t e r v i e w e r , t h e i n t e r v i e w e e w i l l t r y t o answer as - 1 3 1 -t r u t h f u l l y a s p o s s i b l e . C e r t a i n l y , i f a respondent h a s made t h e p e r s o n a l commitment t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n a f a c e - t o - f a c e i n t e r v i e w , t h e r e i s a t l e a s t a r e a s o n a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t t h e f a c t s w i l l be r e c a l l e d as a c c u r a t e l y a s p o s s i b l e . However, r a t h e r t h a n j u s t r e l y i n g on t h e good i n t e n t i o n s of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s , t h e i r r e s p o n s e s and c a s e h i s t o r i e s were (wherever p o s s i b l e ) c r o s s - c h e c k e d a g a i n s t e a r l i e r r e p o r t s of t h e i r ASEAN involvement which had appeared i n t h e b u s i n e s s p r e s s , i n p r o v i n c i a l government t r a d e promotion f i l e s , or i n c o r p o r a t e annual r e p o r t s . No major c o n t r a d i c t i o n s or d i s t o r t i o n s of f a c t were uncovered as a r e s u l t of t h i s p r o c e s s . C l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e i s s u e of a c c u r a t e r e c a l l , i s t h e q u e s t i o n of whether or not t h e respondents i n t e r v i e w e d were p e r s o n a l l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e i r f i r m ' s i n i t i a l ASEAN market e n t r y o r , f a i l i n g t h a t , whether t h e y a t l e a s t had d i r e c t p e r s o n a l knowledge of t h e i n i t i a l market f o r a y . W h i l e t h i s q u e s t i o n h a s , t o a l a r g e e x t e n t , a l r e a d y been answered e lsewhere, i t i s worth r e p e a t i n g t h a t a lmost t h r e e q u a r t e r s of t h e respondents had been w i t h t h e i r f i r m s f o r 1 5 y e a r s or l o n g e r , w h i l e t h e i r companies, on the o t h e r hand, had been i n ASEAN f o r l e s s than 2 0 y e a r s . The scope of t h i s o v e r l a p s h o u l d , t h e r e f o r e , engender some c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e a c c u r a c y of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ' r e c o l l e c t i o n s . - 132 -F i n a l l y , t h e r e i s u n d e r l y i n g t h e d e s i g n of t h i s s t u d y t h e assumption t h a t one can r e a s o n a b l y group i n d i v i d u a l r e p l i e s a c r o s s respondents i n such a way as t o draw some m e a n i n g f u l c o n c l u s i o n s and s i m i l a r i t i e s . T h i s assumes, f o r example, t h a t i t i s v a l i d t o compare e n t e r i n g ASEAN as a s u b c o n t r a c t o r f o r a l a r g e Canadian f i r m t o e n t e r i n g ASEAN as a s u b c o n t r a c t o r f o r a l a r g e American f i r m . Can both e n t r i e s be c l a s s i f i e d as "piggyback" e n t r i e s ? Or a r e t h e y q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t approaches? For t h e purposes of t h i s s t u d y , t h e y have been c o n s i d e r e d as l i k e approaches and grouped t o g e t h e r i n the s t a t i s t i c a l summaries. The o n l y o t h e r assumption t h a t s h o u l d perhaps be made e x p l i c i t ( i n t h i s or any other study) i s t h e u n d e r l y i n g b e l i e f t h a t t h e q u e s t i o n s asked were n e u t r a l and u n b i a s e d . I n o t h e r words, were the respondents asked i n as n e u t r a l a manner a s p o s s i b l e t o recount what t r a n s p i r e d ? I b e l i e v e t h e answer t o t h i s q u e s t i o n i s , most d e f i n i t e l y , y e s . Prompts were o f f e r e d o n l y a f t e r the unprompted answers were complete. (For example, i f a respondent i n d i c a t e d t h a t no p r i n t e d s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on ASEAN was r e g u l a r l y u t i l i z e d , t h e i n t e r v i e w e r would then ask about s p e c i f i c t i t l e s or s o u r c e s , j u s t i n c a s e the respondent had, i n f a c t , u t i l i z e d them but s i m p l y n e g l e c t e d t o mention them). T h a t such prompts c o u l d b i a s the answer must r e a d i l y be a d m i t t e d , - 133 -but having completed the interviews it can now be said, in rebuttal, that very few additional sources were uncovered with a prompt that were not already divulged in response to the initial unprompted question. - 134 -Scope and L i m i t a t i o n s ; The scope of t h i s s t u d y i s l i m i t e d by a number of f a c t o r s , not t h e l e a s t of which i s t h e g e o g r a p h i c c o n c e n t r a t i o n of both market and sample p o p u l a t i o n . T h i s s t u d y f o c u s e s e x c l u s i v e l y on t h e i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g and market e n t r y a c t i v i t i e s of a s e l e c t group of B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s . More s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e s t u d y f o c u s e s on t h e a c t i v i t i e s of B . C . f i r m s i n t h e ASEAN market ( d e f i n e d as i n c l u d i n g T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , M a l a y s i a , S i n g a p o r e , B r u n e i and t h e P h i l i p p i n e s ) . W i t h i n t h e respondent group i t s e l f , t h e f o c u s i s e x c l u s i v e l y on e x p o r t e r s l o c a t e d i n the Lower Mainland of t h e B r i t i s h Columbia ( d e f i n e d as i n c l u d i n g Vancouver, North and West Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, D e l t a and S u r r e y ) . I t would c e r t a i n l y have been i n t e r e s t i n g and i n s t r u c t i v e t o have i n c l u d e d e x p o r t e r s from other r e g i o n s of t h e p r o v i n c e , b u t t h e expense of t r a v e l l i n g o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland p r e c l u d e d t h i s p a r t i c u l a r o p t i o n . However, i n l i g h t of t h e f a c t t h a t t h e m a j o r i t y of the p r o v i n c e ' s manufactured goods e x p o r t e r s a r e l o c a t e d i n Vancouver and i t s immediate e n v i r o n s , t h i s o m i s s i o n may not be as c r u c i a l as i t seems a t f i r s t . C l e a r l y though, i t would be worthwhi le , i n f u t u r e s t u d i e s , t o address the p o s s i b l e d i f f e r e n c e s between - 135 -e x p o r t e r s l o c a t e d i n the Lower Mainland and e x p o r t e r s l o c a t e d elsewhere i n t h e p r o v i n c e . A l s o s p e c i f i c a l l y e x c l u d e d from t h i s s t u d y was any c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h e ASEAN market a c t i v i t i e s of C a n a d a ' s major c h a r t e r e d banks , a l t h o u g h a l l a r e r e p r e s e n t e d , i n one way or a n o t h e r , i n ASEAN ( p a r t i c u l a r l y i n S i n g a p o r e ) . T h i s i s not because t h e b a n k ' s ASEAN a c t i v i t i e s a r e w i t h o u t i n t e r e s t , but r a t h e r because t h e i r movement i n t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l arena has been w e l l documented e l s e w h e r e . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e c o r p o r a t e d e c i s i o n t o e n t e r t h e ASEAN market was, i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d , t a k e n a t c o r p o r a t e head o f f i c e s i n Toronto, making t h e q u e s t i o n of p e r s o n a l a c c e s s t o t h e a p p r o p r i a t e d e c i s i o n makers a l l t h a t much more d i f f i c u l t f o r t h e i n t e r v i e w e r . F o r a s i m i l a r r e a s o n , no e f f o r t was made t o i n c l u d e t h e ASEAN market e n t r y a c t i v i t i e s of e i t h e r Canadian or f o r e i g n s u b s i d i a r y t r a d i n g houses i n t h i s s t u d y . A g a i n , w i t h v e r y few e x c e p t i o n s , most of the r e l e v a n t market e n t r y d e c i s i o n s were p r o b a b l y t a k e n o f f s h o r e ( i n Tokyo, London or New Y o r k ) . I n a d d i t i o n , most home-grown, l o c a l l y - b a s e d B . C . t r a d i n g houses f o c u s on a v e r y few s e l e c t markets and commodities ( p r i m a r i l y f o o d s t u f f s and f o r e s t p r o d u c t s t o Europe and Japan) and ASEAN does not f i g u r e p r o m i n e n t l y i n e i t h e r t h e i r p r o d u c t or geographic span of a c t i v i t i e s . At some f u t u r e - 136 -• p o i n t i n t i m e , however, i t would be worth e x p l o r i n g t h e i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g a c t i v i t i e s of t h e s e c o r p o r a t e e n t i t i e s a s w e l l . P a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e i n f o r m a t i o n i s t h e l i f e b l o o d of any t r u l y s u c c e s s f u l t r a d i n g house o p e r a t i o n . With r e g a r d t o t h e t y p e of ASEAN market a c t i v i t y t h a t was c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y , i t s h o u l d be p o i n t e d out t h a t w h i l e t h e m a j o r i t y of respondents were e x p o r t e r s i n t h e t r u e s t s e n s e ( i n o t h e r words, t h e i r p r o d u c t was manufactured i n B . C . and s h i p p e d t o the m a r k e t ) , t h e r e were o t h e r respondents who operated j o i n t v e n t u r e assembly and l i c e n s e e o p e r a t i o n s and s t i l l o t h e r s who had gone so f a r as t o make a f u l l s c a l e d i r e c t investment i n the market ( i n one c a s e , even going so f a r as t o export the output of t h e i r ASEAN p l a n t t o t h i r d c o u n t r y markets i n the Middle E a s t ) . No e f f o r t was made t o e x c l u d e any of t h e s e companies from t h e s t u d y . I n a d d i t i o n , s e v e r a l respondents had p r o g r e s s e d from one form of market a c c e s s t o a n o t h e r , some had abandoned one o p t i o n i n favour of a n o t h e r , and s t i l l o t h e r s had e i t h e r formed c o n s o r t i a or used a h y b r i d of approaches depending upon t h e c o u n t r y i n q u e s t i o n . A l l e n t r y models were f e l t t o be worthy of s t u d y and, t h u s , i n c l u d e d i n t h e sample. G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , the respondents were q u i t e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s export p r o f i l e t o ASEAN. The o n l y s e c t o r s of any s i g n i f i c a n c e t h a t were not - 1 3 7 -i n c l u d e d i n t h e s t u d y were wood pulp and a s b e s t o s . I n t h e former c a s e , a major p u l p e x p o r t e r t o ASEAN was i n i t i a l l y i d e n t i f i e d and c o n t a c t e d , but a m u t u a l l y c o n v e n i e n t i n t e r v i e w d a t e c o u l d not be a r r a n g e d . I n t h e l a t t e r c a s e , t h e importance of a s b e s t o s i n B . C . ' s e x p o r t p r o f i l e t o ASEAN was not d i s c o v e r e d u n t i l w e l l a f t e r t h e i n t e r v i e w s had been completed. Thus, a s b e s t o s s t a n d s as p r o b a b l y t h e key o m i s s i o n i n t h e s e c t o r coverage of t h i s s t u d y . There a r e a number of other l i m i t a t i o n s t o t h e s t u d y which s h o u l d a l s o be acknowledged a t t h i s p o i n t . F i r s t of a l l , no attempt was made t o randomize the sample i n a c l a s s i c s e n s e . On t h e c o n t r a r y , the sample was d e l i b e r a t e l y chosen. Companies were i d e n t i f i e d from media r e p o r t s , p r e s s r e l e a s e s , government s o u r c e s and c o r p o r a t e a n n u a l r e p o r t s . No attempt was made t o b a l a n c e the s e c t o r s , a l t h o u g h , as mentioned above, the sample was q u i t e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e and (by i t s own r e p o r t i n g ) accounted f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 75% of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s t o t a l e x p o r t s t o ASEAN i n t h e y e a r p r e c e d i n g t h e i n t e r v i e w s . Second, t h e s i z e of t h e sample may or may not have been s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , but s i n c e no r i g o r o u s h y p o t h e s i s t e s t i n g was p l a n n e d , t h i s was not a major c o n s i d e r a t i o n . B e s i d e s , i f t h e u n i v e r s e of p o s s i b l e B . C . e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN i s o n l y 30 t o 35 f i r m s and 2 1 of t h e s e were p e r s o n a l l y i n t e r v i e w e d f o r the s t u d y , t h e n some r e a s o n a b l e measure of c o n f i d e n c e must be a t t a c h e d t o - 138 -t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of t h e i r r e s p o n s e s . T h i r d , t h e r e i s an i n h e r e n t l a c k of p r e c i s i o n a t t a c h e d t o f a c e - t o - f a c e i n t e r v i e w s and o r a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e s (even i f a l l t h e r e s p o n d e n t s were asked e x a c t l y the same q u e s t i o n s i n e x a c t l y t h e same way). Answers may not have been f u l l y r e c o r d e d , s c a l e s or magnitudes of importance may have been d i f f i c u l t t o a s s e s s ( r a n k i n g s between 1 and 5 or 1 and 10 a r e w i d e l y used b u t not e n t i r e l y s a t i s f a c t o r y ) , and t h e i n t e r v i e w e r may have i n t r o d u c e d an element of b i a s i n t o t h e f o l l o w - u p or a n c i l l a r y q u e s t i o n s . A l l of t h e s e shortcomings a r e p o s s i b l e ( i n t h i s or any o t h e r d e s c r i p t i v e i n t e r v i e w survey) and a r e r e a d i l y a d m i t t e d . The o n l y defense a g a i n s t t h e s e i n a d e q u a c i e s i s t h e s k i l l of the i n t e r v i e w e r and h i s or h e r d i l i g e n c e i n r e c o r d i n g , as f a i t h f u l l y as p o s s i b l e , t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ' answers. One way t o i n c r e a s e t h i s l e v e l of a c c u r a c y may have been t o tape r e c o r d t h e c o n v e r s a t i o n s . On t h e o t h e r hand, i t would have been extremely d i f f i c u l t t o c o n v i n c e t h e respondents t h a t t h e i r comments and r e p l i e s were going t o be kept i n the s t r i c t e s t c o n f i d e n c e i f t h e y were b e i n g tape r e c o r d e d . Somehow t h a t same s c e p t i c i s m i s not extended t o an i n t e r v i e w e r t a k i n g hand w r i t t e n n o t e s (as was t h e c a s e i n t h i s s t u d y ) . Perhaps t h e d i f f e r e n c e l i e s i n t h e u n f o r g i v i n g l y v e r b a t i m n a t u r e of a tape r e c o r d i n g v e r s u s a t l e a s t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of a misquote and, t h u s , t h e d e n i a b i l i t y of a w r i t t e n r e c o r d . - 139 -I n t h e f i n a l a n a l y s i s , however, i t e s s e n t i a l l y becomes an a r t i c l e o f f a i t h . One e i t h e r a c c e p t s t h a t a face - t o - f a c e i n t e r v i e w format c o n t r i b u t e s a measure of r i c h n e s s n o t p o s s i b l e i n a m a i l s u r v e y q u e s t i o n n a i r e , or one does n o t . G i v e n t h e o b j e c t i v e s of t h i s s t u d y , i t was f e l t t h a t a p e r s o n a l f a c e - t o - f a c e i n t e r v i e w approach was b o t h p r e f e r a b l e and a p p r o p r i a t e . Procedure: S u b j e c t s : T h i r t y two B r i t i s h Columbia companies were i d e n t i f i e d a s p o s s i b l e e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN. They were i d e n t i f i e d from media r e p o r t s , p r e s s r e l e a s e s , c o r p o r a t e a n n u a l r e p o r t s and i n t e r v i e w s w i t h f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l government o f f i c i a l s . L e t t e r s were s e n t t o t h e C h i e f E x e c u t i v e O f f i c e r s of a l l 32 f i r m s r e q u e s t i n g t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e i n t e r v i e w s t u d y (see Appendix 1 ) . The f i r m s i n v i t e d t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e s t u d y r e p r e s e n t e d a wide c r o s s - s e c t i o n of B r i t i s h Columbia companies a c t i v e i n ASEAN. They d i d n o t , however, r e p r e s e n t t h e e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n of B . C . f i r m s a c t i v e i n ASEAN, a l t h o u g h , as we have s e e n , t h e y d i d a c c o u n t f o r a s i g n i f i c a n t p e r c e n t a g e (75%) of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s t o t a l e x p o r t s t o t h e r e g i o n i n 1 9 8 5 . - 140 -When c o n t a c t e d t o a r r a n g e an i n t e r v i e w , 3 f i r m s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y had not s o l d a n y t h i n g t o ASEAN ( l e a v i n g 29 f i r m s as p o t e n t i a l i n t e r v i e w c a n d i d a t e s ) . Of t h e s e 7 were u n a v a i l a b l e or u n a b l e t o g r a n t i n t e r v i e w s , 1 r e f e r r e d a l l ASEAN i n q u i r i e s t o C a l g a r y and Toronto (and t h u s was e x c l u d e d from t h e s a m p l e ) , and 1 f i r m agreed t o a l e n g t h y t e l e p h o n e i n t e r v i e w (which because of i t s completeness was i n c l u d e d i n t h e s a m p l e ) . I n the end, 2 0 f i r m s were i n t e r v i e w e d i n person ( p l u s the one by t e l e p h o n e ) , g i v i n g a t o t a l sample of 2 1 r e s p o n d e n t s . Twenty-one of t w e n t y - n i n e p o s s i b l e respondents y i e l d s , i n t u r n , a response r a t e of 7 2 . 4 % . T a b l e 23 d e t a i l s t h e s e c t o r c o m p o s i t i o n of t h e sample p o p u l a t i o n , both t h o s e who were i n i t i a l l y c o n t a c t e d by l e t t e r and t h o s e who were a c t u a l l y i n t e r v i e w e d i n p e r s o n . i ! j - 141 -T a b l e 2 3 . Respondents by S e c t o r S e c t o r C o n t a c t e d I n t e r v i e w e d C o n s u l t i n g E n g i n e e r s 6 5 R e s o u r c e P r o d u c t s 5 3 S p e c i a l i z e d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equipment and S e r v i c e s 4 2 Food and Consumer P r o d u c t s 4 2 R e s o u r c e E x t r a c t i o n and P r o c e s s i n g Equipment 3 1 T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s and E l e c t r o n i c C o n t r o l s 3 1 P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l Equipment and S e r v i c e s 2 2 C h e m i c a l P r o d u c t s and P r o c e s s e s 2 2 S a t e l l i t e and A e r i a l S u r v e y i n g Equipment and S e r v i c e s 2 2 M a r i n e Equipment 1 1 T o t a l 3 2 2 1 A l s o worth n o t i n g , a r e t h e f o l l o w i n g f a c t s about t h e r e s p o n d e n t s and t h e i r f i r m s : 1 . Ten of 2 1 r e s p o n d e n t s ( 4 7 . 6 % ) h e l d t h e p o s i t i o n o f p r e s i d e n t of t h e i r f i r m . F i v e o t h e r s ( 2 3 . 8 % ) were e i t h e r vice - p r e s i d e n t s or d i r e c t o r s . - 142 -F i f t e e n of 2 1 respondents ( 7 1 . 4 % ) had been employed by t h e i r f i r m f o r 1 5 y e a r s or l o n g e r . I n f a c t , f u l l y one t h i r d ( 3 3 . 3 % ) of t h e respondents had been w i t h t h e i r f i r m f o r 2 0 y e a r s or l o n g e r . S i x t e e n of 2 1 respondent f i r m s ( 7 6 . 2 % ) had been a c t i v e i n ASEAN f o r l e s s t h a n 2 0 y e a r s . I n o t h e r words, o n l y f i v e of 2 1 f i r m s ( 2 3 . 8 % ) had been i n ASEAN l o n g e r t h a n 2 0 y e a r s . The range i n ASEAN e x p e r i e n c e was from 2 t o 38 y e a r s . The r e s p o n d e n t s ' involvement i n ASEAN ranged from p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n o n l y 1 member c o u n t r y t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n 5 member c o u n t r i e s . No f i r m was i n v o l v e d i n a l l s i x ASEAN m a r k e t s . The most p r e v a l e n t p r o f i l e was involvement i n 4 ASEAN c o u n t r i e s (the f o u r c o u n t r i e s mentioned most o f t e n were I n d o n e s i a , T h a i l a n d , M a l a y s i a and t h e P h i l i p p i n e s ) . S i x t e e n of 2 1 ( 7 6 . 2 % ) respondents were i n v o l v e d i n a t l e a s t 3 ASEAN c o u n t r i e s . Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , the l e a s t p e n e t r a t e d ASEAN market was Brunei (with o n l y 2 respondents r e c o r d i n g s a l e s i n t h a t m a r k e t ) . The annual s a l e s of the respondents ( i n a l l markets) ranged from l e s s than $ 1 m i l l i o n t o over $5 b i l l i o n . However, f u l l y 16 of 2 1 f i r m s ( 7 6 . 2 % ) had s a l e s of l e s s - 143 -t h a n $ 1 0 0 m i l l i o n a n n u a l l y . Only 2 of 2 1 f i r m s ( 9 . 5 % ) had annual s a l e s i n e x c e s s of $ 1 . 0 b i l l i o n . 6. A s i m i l a r s p r e a d i n the number of t o t a l employees was a l s o e v i d e n t , w i t h some f i r m s h a v i n g l e s s t h a n 6 employees, w h i l e o t h e r s had over 5 , 0 0 0 . However, 1 3 of 2 1 f i r m s ( 6 1 . 9 % ) had l e s s t h a n 500 employees and c o u l d p r o b a b l y be c o n s i d e r e d as " m i d - s i z e d " c o r p o r a t i o n s . S u r p r i s i n g , o n l y 6 of 2 1 f i r m s (28.6%) had l e s s t h a n 100 employees and c o u l d , t h e r e f o r e , be c o n s i d e r e d as " s m a l l " b u s i n e s s e s i n the Canadian c o n t e x t . 7 . There was a wide v a r i a t i o n i n the importance of t h e ASEAN market t o the respondent f i r m s . At one extreme, s a l e s t o ASEAN accounted f o r o n l y 0 . 5 % of t o t a l c o r p o r a t e s a l e s , w h i l e a t t h e o t h e r , s a l e s t o ASEAN accounted f o r more than 4 0% of t o t a l c o r p o r a t e s a l e s . I n no c a s e , however, d i d s a l e s t o ASEAN account f o r more t h a n 50% of a r e s p o n d e n t ' s t o t a l s a l e s . I n f a c t , f o r 16 of 2 1 f i r m s ( 7 6 . 2 % ) s a l e s t o ASEAN accounted f o r l e s s t h a n 25% of t o t a l annual s a l e s and f o r 14 of 2 1 respondents (66.6%) s a l e s t o ASEAN accounted f o r l e s s t h a n 15% of t o t a l c o r p o r a t e s a l e s . C h a r t s 1 t o 8, which f o l l o w , d e t a i l both the f i r m and respondent p r o f i l e s . - 144 -$ Millions <1 1 -4 5-14 15-24 25-49 50-99 100-499 500-1499 1500-2499 2500 + - CHART 1 -ANNUAL SALES OF RESPONDENT FIRMS (1984/1985) -CHART 2 -NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES (World wide in all offices) Employees <6 6 -10 11-25 26-100 101-200 201-500 501-1000 1001-5000 5001 + Number of Firms - 145 -- CHART 3 -AGE OF FIRM Years of Operation 10 OR LESS 11 -20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81 OR OVER 0 1 2 3 4 5 Number of Firms - CHART 4 -NUMBER OF ASEAN COUNTRIES ACTIVE IN OR HAVE SOLD TO; Number of Firms Number of Countries - 146 -CHART 5 -YEARS ACTIVE IN ASEAN Number of Firms 0-4 5 -9 10-14 15-19 20—£4 Years 254-Percent of Total Sales - CHART 6 -SALES TO ASEAN As a % of Total Sales 2 3 4 5 Number of Firms - 147 -- CHART 7 -CORPORATE POSITION OF RESPONDENT Position Number of Respondents i Years with Firm 0-4 5-9 10-14 - CHART 8 -RESPONDENT'S TENURE WITH FIRM 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number of Respondents - 148 -V a r i a b l e s : Although no attempt was made t o c o r r e l a t e any-p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e w i t h any p a r t i c u l a r i n d i c a t o r of performance or i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e u s e d , i t may be u s e f u l t o b r i e f l y d e l i n e a t e some of the key v a r i a b l e s apparent i n t h e s t u d y . The most important v a r i a b l e was, c l e a r l y , t h e s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n u t i l i z e d by t h e respondent or h i s f i r m i n u n c o v e r i n g t h e i r i n i t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t y i n ASEAN. Was i t , f o r example, a p e r s o n a l or n o n - p e r s o n a l s o u r c e ? Was i t a s o u r c e i n t e r n a l t o t h e f i r m or e x t e r n a l ? Was i t a p r i n t e d s o u r c e or an e l e c t r o n i c one? Another key v a r i a b l e was t i m e . D i d t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n u t i l i z e d v a r y over t i m e ? Was t h e r e movement from one s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n t o another as t h e f i r m ' s involvement i n ASEAN grew? Geography was a l s o a v a r i a b l e . D i d t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n u t i l i z e d by t h e respondents v a r y by c o u n t r y ? Were some s o u r c e s more, or l e s s , u s e f u l than o t h e r s i n a p a r t i c u l a r market? S i m i l a r l y , d i d t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n v a r y a c r o s s s e c t o r s ? D i d t h e c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r s , f o r example, use d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n from t h e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e e x p o r t e r s ? F i n a l l y , d i d t h e age or s i z e of the f i r m make any d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n i t u t i l i z e d t o i d e n t i f y b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN? - 149 -D a t a - g a t h e r i n g : E v e r y respondent i n t h e s u r v e y was asked t h e same s e r i e s of s t a n d a r d q u e s t i o n s (see Appendix 2 f o r a sample of t h e i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e ) . T h e i r r e s p o n s e s were r e c o r d e d , by hand, by t h e i n t e r v i e w e r . The i n d i v i d u a l r e s p o n s e s , a l o n g w i t h any a d d i t i o n a l c o r p o r a t e m a t e r i a l p r o v i d e d d u r i n g t h e c o u r s e of the i n t e r v i e w , were c o l l e c t e d and a s s i g n e d a numbered f i l e . A s s u r a n c e s were g i v e n t o a l l r e s p o n d e n t s t h a t t h e i r r e p l i e s would be h e l d i n t h e s t r i c t e s t c o n f i d e n c e and no s p e c i f i c comments or remarks would be a t t r i b u t e d t o any one p a r t i c u l a r f i r m or i n d i v i d u a l . The i n d i v i d u a l responses t o each q u e s t i o n were s u b s e q u e n t l y t r a n s f e r r e d t o a s e r i e s of l a r g e s p r e a d s h e e t s which f a c i l i t a t e d comparisons a c r o s s a l l r e s p o n d e n t s . The c u m u l a t i v e r e s p o n s e s t o the v a r i o u s q u e s t i o n s were t h e n c o l l a t e d and a n a l y z e d f o r s i g n i f i c a n t s i m i l a r i t i e s or d i f f e r e n c e s . Data A n a l y s i s : No major s t a t i s t i c a l m a n i p u l a t i o n s were performed on t h e d a t a beyond a s i m p l e frequency a n a l y s i s . No major s t a t i s t i c a l hypotheses were formulated or t e s t e d and no c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s e s were run. G i v e n t h e p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w format of the study and i t s f o c u s on t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n u t i l i z e d , i t seemed i n a p p r o p r i a t e t o attempt t o make any c a u s a l statements about the r e l a t i o n s h i p s observed. A l l t h a t was attempted was t o d i s c o v e r how B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s major p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the ASEAN market - 150 -uncovered t h e i r f i r s t o p p o r t u n i t i e s t h e r e , how t h e y c o n t i n u e d (or f a i l e d ) t o uncover f u r t h e r o p p o r t u n i t i e s , and what s i m i l a r i t i e s or d i f f e r e n c e s c o u l d be found a c r o s s i n d i v i d u a l c a s e h i s t o r i e s . An attempt was made t o compare the r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y t o t h e r e s u l t s of market e n t r y s t u d i e s done elsewhere i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and Europe and t o make a number of o b s e r v a t i o n s about the p o s s i b l e d i f f e r e n c e s and s i m i l a r i t i e s between t h e l o c a l and f o r e i g n e x p e r i e n c e . I t i s worth n o t i n g , however, t h a t v e r y few of t h e s e f o r e i g n s t u d i e s made any attempt t o imply a c a u s a l l i n k between t h e method used t o s e c u r e t h a t i n i t i a l export order and any subsequent s u c c e s s or f a i l u r e i n t h a t p a r t i c u l a r m a r k e t p l a c e . The f a c t t h a t i n t e r v i e w - b a s e d a n e c d o t a l s t u d i e s do not r e a d i l y l e n d themselves t o s o p h i s t i c a t e d s t a t i s t i c a l m a n i p u l a t i o n does n o t , i n any way, d i m i n i s h t h e i r u s e f u l n e s s . I t may, on the c o n t r a r y , a c t u a l l y i n c r e a s e t h e i r a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o a non-academic a u d i e n c e ( i . e . , a c t u a l b u s i n e s s p r a c t i t i o n e r s ) because the focus i s on a c t u a l b u s i n e s s e x p e r i e n c e s and s t r a t e g i e s as opposed t o a more a b s t r a c t d i s c u s s i o n of models and v a r i a b l e s . F i n a l l y , i t s h o u l d be noted t h a t as the r e s u l t of s e v e r a l p r e - t e s t i n t e r v i e w s , two of the i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n s had t o - 151 -be a l t e r e d s l i g h t l y i n the way i n which t h e y were u l t i m a t e l y asked. Q u e s t i o n 9, f o r example, asked the r e s p o n d e n t s t o rev iew a l i s t of p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n (some p e r s o n a l , some documentary, some i n s i d e t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n , and some o u t s i d e the o r g a n i z a t i o n ) . The respondents were t h e n asked t o a s s i g n a number " 1 " t o t h e most i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e , a number "2" t o the second most important s o u r c e and so on, u n t i l t h e top 10 s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n had been i d e n t i f i e d . Although the procedure was f a i r l y c a r e f u l l y e x p l a i n e d , some respondents i n v a r i a b l y ended up r a n k i n g a l l t h e s o u r c e s on a s c a l e of 1 t o 1 0 , r e s u l t i n g i n a m u l t i p l i c i t y of number " 1 " s o u r c e s . S i m i l a r l y , some respondents s i m p l y c o u l d n o t , or would n o t , d i s t i n g u i s h between s e v e r a l s o u r c e s which they f e l t t o be of e q u a l importance. I n t h e end, the i n t e r v i e w e r was f o r c e d t o l i t e r a l l y walk t h e respondents through t h e l i s t of s o u r c e s v e r b a l l y , a s k i n g whether each one was of t h e "most" importance, "some" importance or of " l i t t l e " importance. The end r e s u l t was t h a t s e v e r a l s o u r c e s were a s s i g n e d a number " 1 " r a n k i n g , s e v e r a l s o u r c e s as number " 2 " , and soon. The g r a d i n g range, i n e f f e c t , c o n t r a c t e d from a 1 t o 10 s c a l e t o about a 1 t o 5 s c a l e . F o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e was a f a i r amount of s i m i l a r i t y a c r o s s a l l respondents and t h e r e s u l t s a r e p r o b a b l y not a l l t h a t d i f f e r e n t from what might have been a c h i e v e d by a more r i g o r o u s adherence t o t h e - 1 5 2 -o r i g i n a l g r a d i n g range. S t i l l , the r e s p o n s e s t o Q u e s t i o n 9 must be t r e a t e d w i t h some c a u t i o n . A s i m i l a r problem was encountered w i t h Q u e s t i o n 1 1 , which asked t h e respondents how many hours a week t h e y spent t r y i n g t o keep up on t h e i r r e a d i n g r e l a t e d t o ASEAN? T h i s was, by f a r , t h e most p o o r l y answered q u e s t i o n i n t h e s u r v e y . Many respondents c l e a r l y confused t h e number of hours t h e y spent r e a d i n g about ASEAN w i t h t h e number of hours t h e y spent r e a d i n g on a l l t o p i c s . Others s i m p l y a v o i d e d answering the q u e s t i o n or c o u l d not a s s i g n a number t o t h e t ime s p e n t . Where a s p e c i f i c response was made i t was r e c o r d e d , but t h e l a r g e number of "no response" answers t o t h i s q u e s t i o n c a s t s s e r i o u s doubts upon t h e r e l i a b i l i t y of t h e r e s u l t s f o r t h i s q u e s t i o n . - 153 -PART IV. RESULTS: The r e s u l t s o f t h e s u r v e y a r e , f o r c o n v e n i e n c e , d i s c u s s e d i n t h e same o r d e r t h a t t h e q u e s t i o n s were a s k e d d u r i n g t h e i n t e r v i e w . Appendix 2 c o n t a i n s a f u l l l i s t of t h e i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n s . Q u e s t i o n 1 : How d i d y o u r f i r m f i r s t became i n v o l v e d i n t h e ASEAN m a r k e t ? The most common r e s p o n s e t o t h i s q u e s t i o n was t h a t t h e i r i n v o l v e m e n t came about as p a r t of a " p l a n n e d i n t e r n a t i o n a l e x p a n s i o n " . Many r e s p o n d e n t s a c t i v e l y c o n s i d e r e d t h e ASEAN r e g i o n b e c a u s e t h e y f a c e d l i m i t e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n t h e i r own d o m e s t i c m a r k e t . These l i m i t a t i o n s were e i t h e r t h e r e s u l t o f t h e l i m i t e d s i z e of t h e C a n a d i a n market or i t s i n h e r e n t r e s o u r c e c o n s t r a i n t s . These problems were p a r t i c u l a r l y a c u t e f o r t h e r e s o u r c e m a c h i n e r y and equipment m a n u f a c t u r e r s . They r e a l i z e d v e r y e a r l y on t h a t t h e i r market extended beyond North A m e r i c a . As a r e s o u r c e r i c h a r e a , ASEAN c l e a r l y c a u g h t t h e i r a t t e n t i o n . T h e i r i n i t i a l i n v o l v e m e n t , t h e r e f o r e , u s u a l l y e n t a i l e d a v i s i t t o t h e r e g i o n by t h e company's c h i e f e x e c u t i v e o f f i c e r i n o r d e r t o a s s e s s , f i r s t hand, t h e a c t u a l p o t e n t i a l of t h e ASEAN m a r k e t . - 154 -The second most commonly r e p o r t e d r o u t e of e n t r y was as a " s u b c o n t r a c t o r " t o a l a r g e r Canadian or American company a l r e a d y a c t i v e i n t h e ASEAN market. E n t r i e s s u c h a s t h e s e might b e s t be d e s c r i b e d as "piggyback" or " b i g b r o t h e r " e n t r i e s i n t o t h e market. One respondent , f o r example, was i n t r o d u c e d t o a l a r g e r American c o n t r a c t o r by a C a n a d i a n u t i l i t y w i s h i n g t o b r i n g the two t o g e t h e r on one of i t s p r o j e c t s i n Canada. The r e l a t i o n s h i p worked so w e l l i n Canada t h a t when the American f i r m s u b s e q u e n t l y e n t e r e d t h e M a l a y s i a n market, i t s p e c i f i e d the B r i t i s h Columbian f i r m a s i t s prime s u b c o n t r a c t o r . I n t e r e s t i n g l y enough, M a l a y s i a was t h e most commonly mentioned market of e n t r y f o r both the "planned" and "piggyback" approach. The reasons o f f e r e d f o r t h i s predominance i n c l u d e d , M a l a y s i a ' s abundant n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e endowment and i t s E n g l i s h - s t y l e l e g a l system and Commonwealth t i e s . E q u a l l y important t o the "piggyback" model as a means of market e n t r y was p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n a f e d e r a l or p r o v i n c i a l government "export market development program" (be i t a t r a d e f a i r , a t r a d e m i s s i o n , or a s o l o " p r o s p e c t i n g " t r i p ) . Although v e r y l i t t l e new b u s i n e s s was a c t u a l l y s e c u r e d on t h e s e i n i t i a l market t r i p s , they d i d s e r v e t o e s t a b l i s h a number of a l l important f i r s t c o n t a c t s . S e v e r a l respondents - 155 -s t r e s s e d t h e importance t h e y a t t a c h e d t o f o l l o w i n g up on t h e s e i n i t i a l i n d u s t r y c o n t a c t s whether t h e y were made a t t r a d e f a i r s or on s o l o p r o s p e c t i n g m i s s i o n s . One p a r t i c u l a r l y s u c c e s s f u l B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r of c h e m i c a l s and c o n s t r u c t i o n r e l a t e d m a t e r i a l s , f o r example, added on ( a t h i s own expense) a s i d e t r i p t o t h e ASEAN market a t t h e end of a p r o v i n c i a l l y - f u n d e d t r a d e m i s s i o n t o A u s t r a l i a . I t was d u r i n g t h i s u n o f f i c i a l " s i d e t r i p " t h a t he s e t up h i s f i r s t ASEAN d i s t r i b u t o r s h i p i n S i n g a p o r e . A l s o mentioned as important e n t r y mechanisms were " p e r s o n a l p r o s p e c t i n g t r i p s by the f i r m ' s p r i n c i p a l " and " b i d d i n g on an i n t e r n a t i o n a l development agency c o n t r a c t " , I n t h e l a t t e r c a s e , t h i s u s u a l l y meant the World Bank or t h e A s i a n Development Bank. I n a l l c a s e s , the respondents s t a t e d t h a t such c o n t r a c t s were won on the b a s i s of t h e r e p u t a t i o n t h e y had f i r s t e s t a b l i s h e d i n the North American market. I n no c a s e , d i d any f i r m make i t s f i r s t s a l e o f f s h o r e and s u b s e q u e n t l y use t h a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l s a l e t o e s t a b l i s h i t s r e p u t a t i o n i n Canada. E q u a l l y i n t e r e s t i n g was t h e f a c t t h a t , c o n t r a r y t o our i n i t i a l r e s e a r c h e x p e c t a t i o n s , t h e Canadian I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency (CIDA) proved t o be l e s s of a c a t a l y s t t o e n t r y i n the ASEAN market t h a n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l development banks (at l e a s t as f a r as t h e i n i t i a l s t a g e s of the respondents ' a c t i v i t i e s i n ASEAN were c o n c e r n e d ) . - 156 -T a b l e 24 d e t a i l s t h e r e s p o n s e s t o Q u e s t i o n 1 . The t o t a l number of r e s p o n s e s adds up t o g r e a t e r t h a n 2 1 because s e v e r a l respondents i n d i c a t e d a b l e n d of f a c t o r s i n t h e i r i n i t i a l ASEAN e n t r y . For example, a f i r m which was brought i n as a s u b c o n t r a c t o r on a World Bank c o n t r a c t by a l a r g e r C a n a d i a n company would have been recorded as both a "piggybank" and an " i n t e r n a t i o n a l development agency" e n t r y . Whi le such m u l t i p l e answers undoubtedly muddy t h e w a t e r s , t o e x c l u d e one mechanism i n favour of another runs t h e g r e a t e r r i s k of u n d e r e s t i m a t i n g the importance of t h e a r b i t r a r i l y e x c l u d e d e n t r y mechanism. I n a d d i t i o n , i f a r e s p o n d e n t ' s market e n t r y was the r e s u l t of s e v e r a l f a c t o r s working i n c o n f l u e n c e , t h e n t h a t i s i n f o r m a t i o n worthy of i n c l u s i o n , i n and o f , i t s e l f . Table 24. Mechanism Planned E x p a n s i o n P i g g y b a c k / B i g B r o t h e r F e d e r a l / P r o v i n c i a l E x p o r t Market Development Program P e r s o n a l P r o s p e c t i n g by F i r m ' s P r i n c i p a l I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency C o n t r a c t S a l e t o Former North American C l i e n t A c t i v e i n ASEAN CIDA C o n t r a c t Lead from Commercial Bank D i r e c t Approach t o ASEAN Government Agency U n s o l i c i t e d F o r e i g n Order T o t a l - 1 5 7 -F i r s t Involvement i n ASEAN Number of Responses 7 1 1 C o u n t r i e s of 1 s t E n t r y M a l a y s i a , T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , P h i l i p p i n e s , B r u n e i M a l a y s i a , I n d o n e s i a , P h i l i p p i n e s M a l a y s i a , T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , S i n g a p o r e T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , S i n g a p o r e M a l a y s i a , T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a T h a i l a n d , P h i l i p p i n e s T h a i l a n d M a l a y s i a , T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a , S ingapore M a l a y s i a 1 27 M a l a y s i a Q u e s t i o n 2 : What was the source of the i n i t i a l p i e c e of i n f o r m a t i o n about t h a t p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t or need and t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t i t might r e p r e s e n t an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r your f i r m ? - 158 -The l e a d i n g s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN was r e p o r t e d t o be "the p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s and o b s e r v a t i o n s made by s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s of t h e f i r m w h i l e on a v i s i t t o t h e r e g i o n " . These c o n t a c t s ranged from i n t r o d u c t i o n s t o p o s s i b l e l o c a l agents and d i s t r i b u t o r s t o i n t r o d u c t i o n s t o members of the T h a i r o y a l f a m i l y and t h e M a l a y s i a n S u l t a n a t e s (both groups c o n t i n u i n g t o o v e r s e e e x t r e m e l y s u c c e s s f u l c o r p o r a t e e n t i t i e s i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e i r r o y a l d u t i e s ) . The second most common source of i n f o r m a t i o n on i n i t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN t u r n e d out t o be former customers i n North America who now had o p e r a t i o n s i n ASEAN. F o r example, s e v e r a l of the o i l i n d u s t r y support s e c t o r s ( i . e . , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s , r i g p o s i t i o n i n g and p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l ) were a b l e t o l a n d t h e i r f i r s t ASEAN c o n t r a c t s by s e l l i n g t o the same i n t e r n a t i o n a l o i l companies t h e y had d e a l t w i t h i n North America. Other s i g n i f i c a n t s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n i n c l u d e d , f o r e i g n t r a d i n g houses (one Japanese and one E n g l i s h ) , c o n t a c t s made a t i n d u s t r y forums and t r a d e shows, and o t h e r North American f i r m s a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d i n the marketplace (but not y e t a customer of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ) . - 159 -P a r t i c u l a r l y s t r i k i n g was the wide v a r i e t y of " o t h e r " s o u r c e s c i t e d by t h e r e s p o n d e n t s . These ranged from approaches made t o t h e company's c h i e f e x e c u t i v e o f f i c e r w h i l e a t a New York c o c k t a i l p a r t y ( r e g a r d i n g a m i n e r a l p r o p e r t y i n t h e P h i l i p p i n e s ) t o t i p s from t h e r e s p o n d e n t ' s German b a n k e r s r e g a r d i n g another bank c l i e n t , w i t h i n t e r e s t s i n ASEAN, l o o k i n g f o r an e q u i t y p a r t n e r . R e l a t i v e l y r a r e , however, was t h e c o m p l e t e l y unexpected and u n s o l i c i t e d f i r s t e x p o r t o r d e r from a new ASEAN customer. I n f a c t , o n l y one f i r m r e p o r t e d r e c e i v i n g a c o m p l e t e l y u n s o l i c i t e d f i r s t e x p o r t o r d e r from ASEAN and t h a t came about as t h e r e s u l t of a p o t e n t i a l M a l a y s i a n customer s c a n n i n g through a C a n a d i a n e x p o r t e r s ' d i r e c t o r y i n the l i b r a r y of t h e Canadian Embassy i n K u a l a Lumpur. I r o n i c a l l y , i f t h a t B r i t i s h Columbian f i r m had not gone t o t h e t r o u b l e of h a v i n g i t s e l f l i s t e d i n t h e d i r e c t o r y , i t i s extremely d o u b t f u l whether the o r d e r would e v e r have been r e c e i v e d . Two other f i r m s (both c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g companies) r e p o r t e d r e c e i v i n g u n s o l i c i t e d c o n t r a c t s from i n t e r n a t i o n a l development a g e n c i e s (one Canadian and one i n t e r n a t i o n a l ) . I n both c a s e s , however, t h e B . C . f i r m s or t h e i r a f f i l i a t e s were known t o t h e g r a n t i n g a g e n c i e s . I n t h a t s e n s e , they cannot r e a l l y be c o n s i d e r e d u n s o l i c i t e d i n the s t r i c t e s t sense of t h e term. Both companies had a l r e a d y r e g i s t e r e d w i t h the development a g e n c i e s and e s t a b l i s h e d t h e i r c r e d e n t i a l s . Q u i t e c l e a r l y , t h e r e f o r e , the e x p e r i e n c e of the respondents i n t h i s s t u d y - 1 6 0 -w i t h r e s p e c t t o u n s o l i c i t e d export o r d e r s s t a n d s i n sharp c o n t r a s t t o t h e B r i t i s h e x p e r i e n c e d e s c r i b e d by Cunningham and S p i g e l 1 5 4 and the American e x p e r i e n c e d e s c r i b e d by B i l k e y and T e s a r 1 5 5 , a l l of whom found t h a t u n s o l i c i t e d f o r e i g n o r d e r s were t h e most important s o u r c e of i n i t i a l e x p o r t s a l e s . The importance of l i s t i n g o n e ' s export i n t e r e s t s w i t h t h e v a r i o u s i n t e r n a t i o n a l development a g e n c i e s was a l s o s t r e s s e d by s e v e r a l respondents ( p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e i n t h e c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g f i e l d ) . Although " l i s t i n g " i s a n e c e s s a r y p r e r e q u i s i t e , i t i s r a r e l y a s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n , f o r winning a c o n t r a c t w i t h t h e s e a g e n c i e s . A l l respondents who were s u c c e s s f u l i n winning such c o n t r a c t s , s t r e s s e d t h e importance of c u l t i v a t i n g a p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e a p p r o p r i a t e p e r s o n n e l i n t h e s e a g e n c i e s i n o r d e r t o r a i s e t h e i r comfort l e v e l w i t h the c a p a b i l i t i e s of t h e respondent f i r m . T h i s i n v a r i a b l y meant s e v e r a l t r i p s a y e a r t o Washington, D . C . ( f o r c o n s u l t a t i o n s w i t h the World Bank) and t o M a n i l a ( f o r c o n s u l t a t i o n s with the A s i a n Development Bank) . I n a d d i t i o n t o v i s i t i n g t h e s e i n t e r n a t i o n a l development a g e n c i e s , most respondents a l s o c o n s i d e r e d i t n e c e s s a r y t o e s t a b l i s h and m a i n t a i n an ongoing r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h a wide v a r i e t y of r e c i p i e n t government a g e n c i e s and m i n i s t r i e s , s i n c e many World Bank and A s i a n Development Bank - 1 6 1 -p r o j e c t s a r e t a r g e t e d towards d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y s t a t e and p a r a - s t a t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s . T a b l e 2 5 summarizes t h e s o u r c e s of i n i t i a l i n f o r m a t i o n which l e a d t o t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ' f i r s t involvement i n ASEAN. Once a g a i n , t h e number of r e s p o n s e s i s g r e a t e r t h a n t w e n t y - o n e because of a m u l t i p l e r e s p o n s e . T a b l e 25 . Source of I n i t i a l I n f o r m a t i o n Number of Source Responses C o n t a c t s / O b s e r v a t i o n s Made by S e n i o r E x e c u t i v e s During a T r i p t o ASEAN 7 P r e v i o u s Customer i n North America w i t h O p e r a t i o n s i n ASEAN 3 F o l l o w - u p on C o n t a c t s Made a t I n d u s t r y Forum or Trade Show 2 Other North American F irm A l r e a d y i n ASEAN 2 F o r e i g n T r a d i n g House 2 Company's Bankers 1 P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s Made by S e n i o r E x e c u t i v e s O u t s i d e ASEAN 1 Canadian Trade Commissioner i n ASEAN 1 U n s o l i c i t e d Order from ASEAN Customer 1 U n s o l i c i t e d C o n t r a c t from Canadian A i d Agency 1 U n s o l i c i t e d C o n t r a c t from I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency - __1 T o t a l 22 - 1 6 2 -Q u e s t i o n 3 : Do you r e c a l l a p p r o x i m a t e l y how long i t took t o b r i n g t h a t i n i t i a l p r o j e c t / d e m a n d from t h e i n q u i r y s t a g e t o a s u c c e s s f u l c o n c l u s i o n or s a l e ? Nine of twenty-one s a l e s reviewed (42.9%) took l e s s t h a n one y e a r t o b r i n g t o f r u i t i o n . S e v e r a l of t h e s e took o n l y a m a t t e r of weeks t o c o n c l u d e . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , however, t h e s e were s a l e s made t o t h e ASEAN o p e r a t i o n s of North American f i r m s t o whom the respondents had p r e v i o u s l y s o l d goods and s e r v i c e s . I n other words, t h e s e were s a l e s t o p r e v i o u s customers now o p e r a t i n g i n a new g e o g r a p h i c l o c a t i o n . These r e l a t i o n s h i p s were p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e f o r t h o s e B . C . e x p o r t e r s who s e r v i c e d the l a r g e o i l and n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e m u l t i n a t i o n a l s . An e q u a l number of respondents (9 of 2 1 ) , i n d i c a t e d t h a t i t took between 1 and 4 y e a r s t o c o n c l u d e t h e i r i n i t i a l ASEAN s a l e (with a s i g n i f i c a n t number of t h e s e r e s p o n s e s b e i n g c l u s t e r e d around the 2 t o 3 y e a r i n t e r v a l ) . T h i s group, i n t u r n , tended t o be dominated by the machinery and equipment e x p o r t e r s and t h o s e f i r m s i n v o l v e d i n l a r g e c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e o v e r s e a s p r o j e c t s . Only one f i r m i n d i c a t e d t h a t i t took l o n g e r t h a n f i v e y e a r s t o b r i n g i t s i n i t i a l ASEAN d e a l t o a s u c c e s s f u l c o n c l u s i o n . I n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r c a s e , i t took 14 y e a r s from t h e f i r s t - 163 -approach u n t i l t h e p r o j e c t was f i n a l l y onstream and p r o d u c i n g . I n t e r e s t i n g l y enough, 14 y e a r s was not c o n s i d e r e d beyond t h e norm p r e v a i l i n g i n t h e North American market. I n f a c t , p r o j e c t s i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r s e c t o r ( m i n e r a l e x p l o r a t i o n ) a r e r a r e l y brought on stream i n l e s s t h a n e i g h t y e a r s . Many respondents commented on t h e f a c t t h a t w h i l e t h e i r f i r s t s a l e i n t h e r e g i o n d i d not t a k e an i n o r d i n a t e l y long t i m e t o c o n c l u d e , g e t t i n g t h e i r f i r m w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e ASEAN market took t h e b e t t e r p a r t of t h r e e or f o u r y e a r s . The d i s t i n c t i o n b e i n g drawn here was between t h e f a i r l y e a s y t o a c q u i r e " o n e - s h o t " d e a l s and a c o n t i n u e d s u s t a i n e d p r e s e n c e i n t h e market which would y i e l d r e p e a t e d s a l e s t o an e v e r - e x p a n d i n g c l i e n t e l e of ASEAN customers . T a b l e 2 6 summarizes t h e r e s p o n s e s t o Q u e s t i o n 3 . The l e n g t h of t ime i t took t o c o n c l u d e the r e s p o n d e n t s ' i n i t i a l ASEAN s a l e s ranged from l e s s t h a n one week (an u n s o l i c i t e d food p r o d u c t order from M a l a y s i a ) t o 14 y e a r s (a m i n e r a l p r o p e r t y development i n t h e P h i l i p p i n e s ) . - 164 -T a b l e 26. Time t o Secure F i r s t S a l e Number of Time R e q u i r e d Responses l e s s t h a n 1 y e a r 9 1 y e a r t o 2 y e a r s 3 2 y e a r s t o 3 y e a r s 4 3 y e a r s t o 4 y e a r s 2 4 y e a r s t o 5 y e a r s 0 l o n g e r t h a n 5 y e a r s 1 not a p p l i c a b l e * _2 T o t a l 2 1 * f o r example, i n one c a s e , t h e f i r m ' s ASEAN o p e r a t i o n s were i n i t i a t e d by t a k i n g over a n o t h e r company's a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d s a l e s network i n ASEAN. There was, t h e r e f o r e , no f i r s t s a l e t o ASEAN o n l y t h e assumption of an e s t a b l i s h e d p r e s e n c e . Q u e s t i o n 4: What has been your f i r m ' s most r e c e n t involvement i n the ASEAN market? How d i d i t come about? E i g h t of 2 1 f i r m s ( 3 8 . 1 % ) responded t h a t t h e i r most r e c e n t ASEAN s a l e s were the d i r e c t r e s u l t of t h e performance a n d / o r r e p u t a t i o n t h e y had e s t a b l i s h e d on t h e i r f i r s t ASEAN s a l e . Three of t h e s e f i r m s made f o l l o w - u p s a l e s t o t h e i r o r i g i n a l ASEAN customers, t h r e e secured new ASEAN customers, and two o t h e r f i r m s made s a l e s t o customers f o r whom t h e y had p r e v i o u s l y worked o u t s i d e of ASEAN, but who were now l o o k i n g - 165 -t o p u r c h a s e t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ' p r o d u c t s or s e r v i c e s i n t h e ASEAN market. Four of 2 1 f i r m s (19%) r e p o r t e d t h a t t h e i r most r e c e n t involvement i n ASEAN had been t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of some s o r t of ASEAN j o i n t v e n t u r e or agency arrangement. The c o u n t r i e s i n v o l v e d i n t h e s e arrangements were M a l a y s i a , I n d o n e s i a and t h e P h i l i p p i n e s . An e q u a l number of respondents ( 1 9 % ) , r e p o r t e d no f u r t h e r involvement i n t h e ASEAN market a f t e r t h e i r i n i t i a l s u c c e s s f u l e n t r y . One f i r m went on t o m a i n t a i n o n l y a p a s s i v e i n t e r e s t i n ASEAN through i t s h o l d i n g s i n an ASEAN s u b s i d i a r y , one f i r m c o m p l e t e l y d i v e s t e d i t s e l f of i t s c o n s i d e r a b l e ASEAN d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t s , and two o t h e r f i r m s were c o n t e n t t o f o c u s t h e i r a t t e n t i o n on developed c o u n t r y markets r a t h e r t h a n the d e v e l o p i n g markets of ASEAN. Three o t h e r f i r m s ( 1 4 . 3 % ) , w h i l e s t i l l v e r y much i n t e r e s t e d i n ASEAN, had been u n a b l e t o c a p i t a l i z e on t h e i r i n i t i a l s u c c e s s i n t h e market. One f i r m had t a r g e t e d M a l a y s i a , b u t , because of t h e f i s c a l c o n s t r a i n t s f a c e d by i t s p r i m a r y customer t h e r e (the M a l a y s i a n government), i t had been u n a b l e t o s e c u r e any f u r t h e r c o n t r a c t s . Another f i r m had f o c u s s e d i t s e f f o r t s on I n d o n e s i a , and d e s p i t e t h e good o f f i c e s of the Canadian t r a d e commissioners i n t h a t market - 1 6 6 -had been u n a b l e t o s e c u r e a s a l e . The t h i r d f i r m had i n i t i a l l y used a "piggyback" or " b i g b r o t h e r " approach t o t h e ASEAN market and, a l t h o u g h s t i l l i n t e r e s t e d i n ASEAN, was r e l u c t a n t t o t r y and r e - e n t e r t h e market on i t s own. T a b l e 27 summarizes t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ' most r e c e n t involvement i n t h e ASEAN m a r k e t s . The number of r e s p o n s e s , once a g a i n , t o t a l s more t h a n 2 1 because of s e v e r a l i n s t a n c e s of m u l t i p l e r e s p o n s e s . T a b l e 2 7 . Most Recent Involvement i n ASEAN Involvement Number of Responses New S a l e as a R e s u l t of R e p u t a t i o n / Performance on F i r s t ASEAN S a l e 8 S t a r t e d ASEAN J o i n t Venture or Agency Arrangement 4 No F u r t h e r Involvement i n ASEAN 4 U n s u c c e s s f u l F o l l o w - u p on F i r s t S a l e Opened Wholly-owned ASEAN R e g i o n a l O f f i c e Won Canadian A i d Agency C o n t r a c t 2 3 1 Responded t o Overture From Other North American F i r m Looking t o C a p i t a l i z e on Respondent's ASEAN E x p e r i e n c e 1 A c q u i r e d ASEAN O p e r a t i o n s of Other North American F i r m Withdrawing From ASEAN 1 T o t a l 24 - 167 -Q u e s t i o n 5 : What was t h e s o u r c e of t h e i n i t i a l p i e c e of i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h i s most r e c e n t c a s e ? By f a r t h e most important s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n c i t e d i n response t o Q u e s t i o n 5 was " p r e v i o u s l y e s t a b l i s h e d p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s i n t h e market". These p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s r a n t h e gamut from p r e v i o u s l y i d e n t i f i e d d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i n government a g e n c i e s t o a c q u a i n t a n c e s made by t h e f i r m ' s c h i e f e x e c u t i v e o f f i c e r d u r i n g one of h i s v i s i t s t o t h e market. Some s o u r c e s were r e f e r e n c e s from p r e v i o u s c o n t a c t s i n Canada w h i l e o t h e r s were i n t r o d u c e d t o t h e respondents by former customers or p a r t n e r s . Canadian t r a d e commiss ioners were a l s o mentioned f a i r l y f r e q u e n t l y i n response t o t h i s q u e s t i o n , however, not so much as s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n t h e m s e l v e s , but as u s e f u l i n t e r m e d i a r i e s f o r making i n t r o d u c t i o n s and appointments. The second most f r e q u e n t l y c i t e d s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n was "a p r e v i o u s customer o u t s i d e the ASEAN r e g i o n " . S e v e r a l f i r m s , f o r example, had worked f o r major m u l t i n a t i o n a l o i l companies i n the North Sea and the Canadian A r c t i c . When t h e s e m u l t i n a t i o n a l o i l companies moved i n t o s o u t h e a s t A s i a , i t seemed o n l y n a t u r a l f o r them t o c a l l upon t h e i r p r e v i o u s s u p p l i e r s and s u b c o n t r a c t o r s . T h i s s o r t of "piggyback" arrangement was p a r t i c u l a r l y advantageous f o r some of t h e - 168 -t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e companies and p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l equipment m a n u f a c t u r e r s . S u r p r i s i n g l y , " l o c a l p a r t n e r s , agents and d i s t r i b u t o r s " were c i t e d as t h e i n i t i a l s o u r c e i n o n l y t h r e e of 29 r e s p o n s e s . T h i s d e s p i t e t h e r e p e a t e d emphasis , i n both t h e l i t e r a t u r e and i n t h e e a r l i e r comments of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s , on t h e importance of a good l o c a l p a r t n e r or p r e s e n c e i n t h e market. One p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s r e l a t i v e l y low r a n k i n g on t h e p a r t of l o c a l p a r t n e r s , agents and d i s t r i b u t o r s i s t h a t t h i s i s a r e f l e c t i o n of t h e i r s h o r t -term performance r a t h e r than t h e i r l o n g - t e r m p o t e n t i a l . Time and t i m e a g a i n , respondents a l l u d e d t o t h e d i f f i c u l t y of f i n d i n g good l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . One m a n u f a c t u r e r of h e a v y - d u t y o f f - t h e - r o a d t r u c k s , f o r example, commented t h a t t h e problem i s not so much a l a c k o f p o t e n t i a l p a r t n e r s , but r a t h e r a l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e " r e l i a b i l i t y " of t h e s e p o t e n t i a l p a r t n e r s . Another manufacturer of marine p r o p u l s i o n c o n t r o l s commented t h a t , "the number one problem i n a c c e s s i n g t h e ASEAN market was f i n d i n g good d i s t r i b u t o r s " . Both f i r m s (and many others) acknowledged t h e growing importance of f i n d i n g and u s i n g "bumiputra" ( l i t e r a l l y "sons of the s o i l " ) or l o c a l i n d i g e n o u s people as agents and d i s t r i b u t o r s i n the ASEAN markets . D e s p i t e the pre -eminence of the Overseas Chinese i n ASEAN b u s i n e s s c i r c l e s , most respondents c a n d i d l y i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e use of - 169 -C h i n e s e ( p r i n c i p a l l y Singaporean) middlemen and a g e n t s was i n c r e a s i n g l y b e i n g frowned upon by the governments of M a l a y s i a , I n d o n e s i a and B r u n e i . As a r e s u l t , many f i r m s were b e i n g f o r c e d t o f i n d " f i g u r e h e a d " bumiputra r e p r e s e n t a t i o n , even i f t h i s a l s o meant r e t a i n i n g an Overseas C h i n e s e t o p r o v i d e t h e a c t u a l commercial b a c k - u p . For t h e most p a r t , respondents r e l i e d upon t h e recommendations of former and p o t e n t i a l customers , C a n a d i a n t r a d e commiss ioners , f r i e n d s and a c q u a i n t a n c e s , and t h e l o c a l b u s i n e s s e l i t e t o h e l p i d e n t i f y good l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I n t h i s s e n s e , a w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d network of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s i n the market i s important not o n l y f o r u n c o v e r i n g good p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , but a l s o f o r i d e n t i f y i n g competent l o c a l i n d i v i d u a l s t o r e p r e s e n t the f i r m . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , f o r t h e neophyte e x p o r t e r t o ASEAN, t h e r e d o e s n ' t appear t o be any s h o r t c u t t o e s t a b l i s h i n g t h i s network of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s . Such networks a r e , by d e f i n i t i o n , b u i l t up o n l y a f t e r r e p e a t e d and extended v i s i t s t o t h e market by the p r i n c i p a l s of the f i r m - a t ime consuming and c o s t l y e x e r c i s e t o say the l e a s t . T a b l e 28 summarizes the responses t o Q u e s t i o n 5 . Once a g a i n , because of m u l t i p l e responses the t o t a l number of responses sums t o g r e a t e r than 2 1 . - 170 -T a b l e 28. Source of I n f o r m a t i o n L e a d i n g t o Most Recent Involvement i n ASEAN Number of Involvement Responses P r e v i o u s l y E s t a b l i s h e d P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s i n t h e ASEAN Market 7 P r e v i o u s Customer O u t s i d e ASEAN 5 L o c a l P a r t n e r , Agent or D i s t r i b u t o r 3 P r e v i o u s Customer i n ASEAN 2 O b s e r v a t i o n s Made During Repeated T r i p s t o ASEAN 2 Approached by Other F i r m With Lead Looking t o C a p i t a l i z e on R e s p o n d e n t ' s ASEAN E x p e r i e n c e 2 I n f o r m a t i o n from New Owners 1 I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development O r g a n i z a t i o n 1 Canadian I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency 1 F e d e r a l PEMD T r i p t o ASEAN 1 Not A p p l i c a b l e ( i . e . , respondent had no f u r t h e r s a l e s t o ASEAN) _4 T o t a l 2 9 One f i n a l p o i n t worth n o t i n g w i t h r e s p e c t t o Q u e s t i o n 5 , i s t h e f a c t t h a t seven of 29 respondents ( 2 4 . 1 % ) i d e n t i f i e d "former customers" as the source of i n f o r m a t i o n on r e c e n t c o n t r a c t s i n ASEAN. F i v e of t h e s e were customers o u t s i d e ASEAN, w h i l e two were p r e v i o u s customers i n ASEAN. T h i s i s g e n e r a l l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the importance a t t a c h e d , i n the l i t e r a t u r e , t o customers as a source of i n f o r m a t i o n on new - 171 -s a l e s l e a d s i n the domestic market. Not o n l y a r e former customers i n a p o s i t i o n t o award f u r t h e r f o l l o w - u p c o n t r a c t s t h e m s e l v e s , but t h e i r s a t i s f i e d recommendation can c a r r y tremendous weight w i t h other companies t h i n k i n g of p u r c h a s i n g s i m i l a r s e r v i c e s , or p r o d u c t s , from t h e respondent f i r m . Q u e s t i o n 6: Looking back over the t ime which has e l a p s e d s i n c e your f i r m ' s f i r s t involvement i n ASEAN, have you n o t i c e d any d i f f e r e n c e s or changes i n t h e s o u r c e s through which you h e a r of p o t e n t i a l market o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN? There was a c l e a r consensus among t h e respondents about t h e overwhelming importance of " l o c a l s o u r c e s i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e " , whether t h e y be e x p a t r i a t e e x e c u t i v e s of t h e f i r m , j o i n t v e n t u r e p a r t n e r s , or l o c a l agents and d i s t r i b u t o r s . A l s o q u i t e c o n s i s t e n t a c r o s s a l l r e s p o n d e n t s , was a r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t more and more of t h i s l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n was going t o have t o become " i n d i g e n o u s " or "bumiputra". The use of h e a d q u a r t e r s p e r s o n n e l on s h o r t -term r o t a t i o n s through the r e g i o n or e x p a t r i a t e e x e c u t i v e s on l o n g e r - t e r m ass ignments was d e f i n i t e l y d e c l i n i n g . However, r e g a r d l e s s of the form of l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n , most respondents emphasized the need f o r c o n t i n u e d v i s i t s t o t h e r e g i o n by s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s of the f i r m . These v i s i t s were needed not o n l y t o show the f i r m ' s commitment t o the - 1 7 2 -market, but a l s o t o b a c k - u p t h e a c t i v i t i e s of t h e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . Perhaps r e f l e c t i n g t h e growing e x p e r i e n c e of t h e respondent f i r m s i n ASEAN, t h e "piggyback" or " b i g b r o t h e r " method of market e n t r y and o p p o r t u n i t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n d e c r e a s e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y over t h e p e r i o d of t ime between the r e s p o n d e n t s ' f i r s t involvement i n ASEAN and t h e i r most r e c e n t . There was l i t t l e d isagreement among respondents t h a t , over t i m e , p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s (whether i n s i d e or o u t s i d e of ASEAN) were s t i l l the most important s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. T a b l e 29 summarizes t h e responses t o Q u e s t i o n 6. As i n p r e v i o u s q u e s t i o n s , t h e t o t a l number of r e s p o n s e s exceeds 2 1 because of s e v e r a l i n s t a n c e s of m u l t i p l e r e s p o n s e s . - 173 -T a b l e 29. D i f f e r e n c e s i n Sources Over Time Number of D i f f e r e n c e s Responses No Major D i f f e r e n c e s ( S t i l l Network of P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s / F o r m e r Customers) 5 S t i l l P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s , but S h i f t i n g From C o n t a c t s of O r i g i n a l Owner or P r e s i d e n t t o C o n t a c t s of L o c a l "Man i n t h e Market" 4 More D e l i b e r a t e and Organized C u l t i v a t i o n of Network of C o n t a c t s i n ASEAN v e r s u s "Grand Tour" by CEO 3 I n c r e a s i n g Importance of L o c a l D i s t r i b u t o r or S a l e s R e p r e s e n t a t i v e as Source of I n f o r m a t i o n 2 S h i f t from P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s t o C o r p o r a t e C o n t a c t s 2 S h i f t from "Piggyback" or "Big B r o t h e r R e l a t i o n s h i p t o E s t a b l i s h m e n t of P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s i n ASEAN 1 F u l l c i r c l e from P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s , P iggyback R e l a t i o n s h i p , Consortium t o P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s 1 Not A p p l i c a b l e ( i . e . , o n l y 1 i n i t i a l s a l e t o ASEAN or d i v e s t m e n t of ASEAN i n t e r e s t s ) _4 T o t a l 2 3 Of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t , was the " f u l l c i r c l e " response t o Q u e s t i o n 6. I n t h i s c a s e , the respondent f i r m was a l a r g e i n t e g r a t e d c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g company. The f i r m had o r i g i n a l l y entered the ASEAN market a t the r e q u e s t of a former U . S . c l i e n t who needed a f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y done on a - 174 -proposed p r o j e c t i n t h e P h i l i p p i n e s . T h e i r most r e c e n t involvement i n ASEAN had come about as t h e r e s u l t of a p r e v i o u s l y e s t a b l i s h e d p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t w i t h a p o t e n t i a l T h a i c l i e n t . I n between t h e s e two c o n t r a c t s , t h e f i r m had p a r t i c i p a t e d f o r about f i v e y e a r s i n a c o n s o r t i u m approach t o t h e market a long w i t h s e v e r a l o t h e r B r i t i s h Columbia f i r m s i n r e l a t e d , but not d i r e c t l y competing, s e c t o r s . I n t h e o r y , t h i s consort ium s h o u l d have been a b l e t o b r i n g a "turnkey" c a p a b i l i t y t o the market, doing e v e r y t h i n g from t h e i n i t i a l f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d i e s t o the a c t u a l d e l i v e r y and commissioning of t h e working p l a n t and equipment. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , d e s p i t e the seemingly u n a s s a i l a b l e l o g i c of such an arrangement, the consort ium was s i n g u l a r l y u n s u c c e s s f u l . I t was s u b s e q u e n t l y d i s s o l v e d a f t e r about f i v e y e a r s . The r e a s o n s f o r the f a i l u r e of the c o n s o r t i u m were b a s i c a l l y t w o - f o l d . F i r s t l y , r a t h e r than p u r s u i n g p r o j e c t s which would b e n e f i t the consort ium as a whole, t h e v a r i o u s c o n s t i t u e n t u n i t s tended to " s u b - o p t i m i z e " and pursue c o n t r a c t s t h a t would b e n e f i t o n l y t h e i r own narrow range of i n t e r e s t s . S e c o n d l y , the consort ium f a i l e d t o pay i t s own way. I n o t h e r words, i t absorbed f a r more money t h a n i t generated and, i n t h e p r o c e s s , d r a i n e d the c a s h flow of a l l t h e p a r t n e r s i n v o l v e d . Nor was t h i s t h e o n l y u n s u c c e s s f u l consort ium approach t r i e d by t h e s u r v e y respondents . Another of the respondent f i r m s - 175 -(a m a n u f a c t u r e r of s a w m i l l machinery and equipment) s i m i l a r l y p a r t i c i p a t e d i n a consort ium of non-competing s u p p l i e r s i n i t s attempts t o p e n e t r a t e t h e ASEAN market . Whi le i n i t i a l l y more s u c c e s s f u l than the p r e v i o u s l y -mentioned c o n s o r t i u m , t h i s group a l s o f a l t e r e d a s t h e ASEAN economies took a downturn i n the e a r l y 1 9 8 0 ' s due t o t h e slump i n o i l and t r o p i c a l commodity p r i c e s . Compounding t h e s e e x t e r n a l d i f f i c u l t i e s , s e v e r a l of t h e c o n s o r t i u m members s u b s e q u e n t l y i n c r e a s e d the t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n t e n t of t h e i r p r o d u c t . T h i s move up-market e f f e c t i v e l y p r i c e d them out of t h e m a r k e t p l a c e , as ASEAN m i l l owners tended t o f a v o u r lower c o s t and l e s s t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d m i l l equipment (no doubt r e f l e c t i n g t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e f o r , and abundant s u p p l y o f , l o c a l low wage l a b o u r ) . Once a g a i n , w i t h i n about f i v e y e a r s , the consort ium was d e f u n c t i n a l l but name. F i n a l l y , i t i s i n s t r u c t i v e t o note t h a t , even i n t h i s age of i n s t a n t a c c e s s e l e c t r o n i c d a t a b a s e s , v e r y few of t h e respondents had any s u c c e s s w i t h the o n - l i n e o p e r a t i o n a l summaries, pending p r o j e c t l i s t s or c a l l s f o r t e n d e r from t h e A s i a n Development Bank, the World Bank or t h e Canadian I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency. Most respondents f e l t t h a t , w h i l e t h e s e l i s t i n g s were of " h i s t o r i c a l " i n t e r e s t , t h e m a j o r i t y of development bank c o n t r a c t s would c o n t i n u e t o be awarded t o t h o s e f i r m s who had e s t a b l i s h e d a p e r s o n a l - 176 -p o i n t of c o n t a c t w i t h i n the a i d - g r a n t i n g a g e n c i e s . T h e r e f o r e , w h i l e t h e p r o c e s s of r e g i s t e r i n g w i t h t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i d and development a g e n c i e s was i m p o r t a n t , as was t h e m o n i t o r i n g of t h e i r p u b l i c a t i o n s and n e w s l e t t e r s , n e i t h e r of t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s was c o n s i d e r e d s u f f i c i e n t , i n i t s e l f , t o s e c u r e a c o n t r a c t . Much more i m p o r t a n t , was t h e c o s t l y and t ime consuming p r o c e s s of e s t a b l i s h i n g a p e r s o n a l p o i n t of c o n t a c t w i t h d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p e r s o n n e l i n t h e s e a g e n c i e s and o r g a n i z a t i o n s . Q u e s t i o n 7 : I n your e x p e r i e n c e , what has been t h e s i n g l e most u s e f u l s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , f o r your f i r m , i n ASEAN? Perhaps i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the most common r e s p o n s e t o t h i s q u e s t i o n was "a p e r s o n a l network of c o n t a c t s developed by t h e f i r m ' s p e r s o n n e l " . As d i s c u s s e d i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e answers t o p r e v i o u s q u e s t i o n s , t h e s e p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s can be w i t h f i r m s i n s i d e or o u t s i d e of ASEAN. A l s o c i t e d as an important source was the " l o c a l man i n the f i e l d " whether he be a d i s t r i b u t o r , an agent or a j o i n t v e n t u r e p a r t n e r . Once a g a i n , the i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d towards t h e " i n d i g e n i z a t i o n " of t h i s l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e was emphasized by the respondents . Many f i r m s r e i t e r a t e d t h a t , - 177 -w h i l e i t was important t o a t l e a s t m a i n t a i n t h e i l l u s i o n of "bumiputra" c o n t r o l by a p p o i n t i n g a l o c a l Malay or I n d o n e s i a n t o o f f i c i a l l y r e p r e s e n t the f i r m , i t was o p e r a t i o n a l l y e x p e d i e n t t o v e s t r e a l c o n t r o l i n t h e hands of a t r u s t e d l o c a l C h i n e s e a s s o c i a t e . I f an ongoing l o c a l p r e s e n c e i n ASEAN i s not c o n s i d e r e d p o s s i b l e , most respondents r e l i e d on e i t h e r " r e g u l a r a t t e n d a n c e a t i n d u s t r y t r a d e f a i r s and forums" or on " f r e q u e n t v i s i t s t o the market by the f i r m ' s s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e o f f i c e r s " . " P e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e s e e x e c u t i v e s on p r e v i o u s t r i p s to t h e r e g i o n " and "former customers" a l s o f i g u r e d p r o m i n e n t l y i n u n c o v e r i n g p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. I t i s perhaps s i g n i f i c a n t t h a t o n l y one f i r m made s p e c i f i c r e f e r e n c e t o a f o r m a l i z e d world -wide c o r p o r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n system as i t s p r i m a r y source of i n f o r m a t i o n on b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. S i g n i f i c a n t l y , t h i s respondent was a m u l t i - b i l l i o n d o l l a r c o r p o r a t i o n w i t h j o i n t - v e n t u r e p r o d u c t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n T h a i l a n d , I n d o n e s i a and M a l a y s i a . A c c o r d i n g l y , i t p r i d e d i t s e l f on h a v i n g "a b e t t e r c o m m e r c i a l / c o r p o r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n system than t h a t e n j o y e d by the Canadian government through i t s o v e r s e a s t r a d e commissioner s e r v i c e . " Wherever p o s s i b l e , t h i s f i r m a l l i e s i t s e l f w i t h the l o c a l b u s i n e s s and p o l i t i c a l e l i t e ( t a k i n g , - 178 -f o r example, as i t s j o i n t v e n t u r e p a r t n e r i n M a l a y s i a t h e c o r p o r a t e v e h i c l e of the l o c a l s u l t a n ) . I n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r o r g a n i z a t i o n , p r i m a r y r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r u n c o v e r i n g new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN i s d e l e g a t e d t o t h e c h i e f e x e c u t i v e o f f i c e r s of the v a r i o u s o p e r a t i n g s u b s i d i a r i e s i n ASEAN. These e x e c u t i v e s , i n t u r n , a r e r e q u i r e d t o f i l e a weekly t e l e x r e p o r t w i t h the c o r p o r a t i o n ' s A s i a P a c i f i c head o f f i c e d e t a i l i n g t h e c u r r e n t economic and p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n t h e c o u n t r y , the s t a t e of t h e l o c a l i n d u s t r y , and r e c e n t company news and developments ( i n c l u d i n g any new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s ) . I n a d d i t i o n , t h i s c o r p o r a t i o n r e c a l l s i t s ASEAN e x e c u t i v e s back t o h e a d q u a r t e r s a t l e a s t once e v e r y e i g h t weeks f o r a s t r a t e g i c review, of o p e r a t i o n s and o p p o r t u n i t i e s . C l e a r l y , the expense a s s o c i a t e d w i t h such a s o p h i s t i c a t e d o p e r a t i o n i s beyond t h e r e a c h of a l l but a h a n d f u l of Canadian f i r m s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t does h i g h l i g h t t h e l e v e l of commitment p o s s i b l e (and perhaps n e c e s s a r y ) i f Canadian f i r m s are t o compete s u c c e s s f u l l y w i t h t h e i r J a p a n e s e , American and European c o m p e t i t o r s i n ASEAN. I t a l s o r e i n f o r c e s the importance a t t a c h e d t o t h e l o c a l "man i n the f i e l d " as the pr imary s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s even w i t h i n m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s . - 179 -T a b l e 30 summarizes t h e r e s p o n s e s t o both Q u e s t i o n 7 and Q u e s t i o n 8. The t o t a l s do not n e c e s s a r i l y sum t o 2 1 because of s e v e r a l m u l t i p l e r e s p o n s e s . T a b l e 30. S i n g l e Most Important Source of I n f o r m a t i o n Source Number of Responses W i l l T h a t Source Remain The Most I m p o r t a n t Not Yes No Sure P e r s o n a l Network of C o n t a c t s Developed by the F i r m ' s Personnel 10 10 0 L o c a l Man i n t h e F i e l d ( i . e . , Agent, D i s t r i b u t o r , P a r t n e r ) 8 8 0 Former Customers 2 . 2 0 P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s E s t a b l i s h e d by F i r m ' s E x e c u t i v e s on P r e v i o u s V i s i t s t o ASEAN 2 2 Attendance a t Trade F a i r s & Forums 2 2 Frequent V i s i t s t o ASEAN by F i r m ' s S e n i o r E x e c u t i v e s 1 1 0 0 Worldwide Corporate I n f o r m a t i o n System 1 1 0 0 Trade Commissioners and Resources a t Canadian Embassies Overseas _JL _0 _0 1 T o t a l 27 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 i I t i s c l e a r from T a b l e 3 0 t h a t most respondents b e l i e v e t h e y have a l r e a d y i d e n t i f i e d the most p r o d u c t i v e s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN and f u l l y - 180 -i n t e n d t o c o n t i n u e u s i n g t h a t same s o u r c e f o r t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . The o n l y e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s o b s e r v a t i o n i s t h a t B . C . f i r m which landed an u n s o l i c i t e d f i r s t e x p o r t o r d e r through t h e o f f i c e s of the Canadian t r a d e commissioner i n K u a l a Lumpur. R e c o g n i z i n g t h e low p r o b a b i l i t y n a t u r e of t h i s approach, the respondent was not s u r e whether, i n f u t u r e , i t would r e l y s o l e l y on a l i s t i n g of i t s e x p o r t i n t e r e s t s w i t h t h e f e d e r a l government 1 s o v e r s e a s t r a d e commissioners or whether i t would move to seek l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . Whi le the t r a d e commissioners had c l e a r l y been t h e most s u c c e s s f u l r o u t e f o r them i n t h e p a s t , t h e respondent r e c o g n i z e d the l i m i t a t i o n s of such an approach f o r t h e f u t u r e . Q u e s t i o n 9: P l e a s e review the a t t a c h e d l i s t of " P o t e n t i a l I n f o r m a t i o n Sources on ASEAN B u s i n e s s O p p o r t u n i t i e s " (see Appendix 3) and i n d i c a t e the 10 or so s o u r c e s you b e l i e v e t o be t h e most important f o r your f i r m . Most respondents had g r e a t d i f f i c u l t y answering t h i s q u e s t i o n (and Quest ion 1 0 , which f o l l o w s ) . Many were u n a b l e , or r e l u c t a n t , t o a s s i g n a # 1 r a n k i n g t o j u s t one s o u r c e . Many e q u i v o c a t e d , and s a i d i t depended upon t h e c a s e a t hand. I t was, they s a i d , o f t e n a c o m b i n a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n from s e v e r a l s o u r c e s which l e a d t o t h e i r i n i t i a l breakthrough i n ASEAN. T h e r e f o r e , r a t h e r than rank t h e top - 181 -10 s o u r c e s i n descending o r d e r , many respondents attempted t o rank each and every s o u r c e on a s c a l e of one t o 1 0 , depending upon i t s importance. I n a l l , o n l y about one q u a r t e r of t h e respondents r e p l i e d t o t h i s q u e s t i o n i n t h e manner r e q u e s t e d . The r e s t had to be v e r b a l l y l e a d through t h e l i s t , i tem by i tem, and prompted f o r an e v a l u a t i o n or i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of "major" s o u r c e s . Some c a u t i o n s h o u l d , t h e r e f o r e , be e x e r c i s e d i n i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e r e s p o n s e s t o Q u e s t i o n 9. D e s p i t e t h i s c a v e a t , however, t h e r e was a remarkable degree of c o n s i s t e n c y i n t h e r e s p o n d e n t ' s answers t o t h i s q u e s t i o n and t h e i r e a r l i e r answers t o Q u e s t i o n s 5, 7 and 8. As might be expected, t h e r e was no one " b e s t " s o u r c e b u t r a t h e r a c l u s t e r of "good" s o u r c e s . A c l u s t e r which was c o n s i s t e n t a c r o s s a l l s e c t o r s and a l l r e s p o n d e n t s . The l a r g e s t a b s o l u t e number of mentions was r e c e i v e d by t h e "Canadian Trade Commissioners". However, o n l y t h r e e respondents a c t u a l l y i d e n t i f i e d them as the # 1 s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. More commonly, C a n a d a ' s t r a d e commissioners were c i t e d as a p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l source of i n t r o d u c t i o n s and h e l p i n making appointments, not as a source of b u s i n e s s l e a d s i n t h e m s e l v e s . - 182 -The s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n most o f t e n ranked a s # 1 was " p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s of company p e r s o n n e l " , c l o s e l y f o l l o w e d by " o b s e r v a t i o n s made d u r i n g p e r s o n a l v i s i t s t o ASEAN m a r k e t ( s ) " , "customers", and " a g e n t s " . I n p o i n t of f a c t , " p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s of company p e r s o n n e l ' d i d not appear on t h e l i s t t h e respondents were asked t o r e v i e w . Most mentioned i t , unprompted, under the s e c t i o n l a b e l l e d " o t h e r s o u r c e s ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) " . Because of t h e overwhelming number of mentions i t r e c e i v e d , i t has been i n c l u d e d i n t h i s summary as a s o u r c e i n , and o f , i t s e l f . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , respondents made no attempt t o d i s t i n g u i s h between t h e i r own p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s , t h e i r c o l l e a g u e ' s p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s or t h e i r s u b o r d i n a t e ' s p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s i n t h e i r r e s p o n s e s t o t h i s q u e s t i o n . Trade m i s s i o n s and t r a d e shows were mentioned by s e v e r a l respondents but d i d not r e c e i v e a p a r t i c u l a r l y h i g h r a n k i n g o v e r a l l . What was c l e a r , however, from both t h e r a n k i n g s and t h e comments made d u r i n g the i n t e r v i e w p r o c e s s was t h a t f e d e r a l t r a d e promotion i n i t i a t i v e s (be t h e y t r a d e f a i r s or t r a d e m i s s i o n s ) were s t r o n g l y p r e f e r r e d t o p r o v i n c i a l i n i t i a t i v e s . I n f a c t , o n l y one f i r m ranked p r o v i n c i a l i n i t i a t i v e s h i g h e r than f e d e r a l t r a d e promotion i n i t i a t i v e s . The g e n e r a l comment, i n t h i s r e s p e c t , be ing t h a t p r o v i n c i a l support was l e s s generous than t h a t a v a i l a b l e under t h e f e d e r a l program, i n a d d i t i o n to which the p r o v i n c i a l program - 183 -seemed l e s s t a r g e t e d and e f f e c t i v e . S e v e r a l r e s p o n d e n t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t p r o v i n c i a l o f f i c i a l s o f t e n seemed more concerned w i t h f i l l i n g p l a c e s on t h e t r a d e m i s s i o n t h a n w i t h a c t u a l l y t r a n s a c t i n g any r e a l b u s i n e s s . The end r e s u l t b e i n g t h a t many f i r m s who had no b u s i n e s s b e i n g i n t h e ASEAN market were c a r r i e d a long i n order t o round out t h e numbers on t h e t r a d e m i s s i o n . T h i s may or may not have been a f a i r comment, but i t was r a i s e d by s e v e r a l respondents and must, t h e r e f o r e , be i n c l u d e d here f o r the sake of c o m p l e t e n e s s . R e g a r d l e s s of whether or not i t i s t r u e , i t c e r t a i n l y summarizes t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ' o p i n i o n of p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e m i s s i o n s . A l s o i d e n t i f i e d as important s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n on b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN were t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ' "man i n t h e market" whether he be a d e a l e r , d i s t r i b u t o r or h e a d q u a r t e r s e x e c u t i v e i n the f i e l d . Of secondary importance were CIDA and other i n t e r n a t i o n a l development agency p e r s o n n e l . As we have seen, however, t h e s e agency p e r s o n n e l were c o n s i d e r e d much more important t h a n t h e o p e r a t i o n a l summaries, pending p r o j e c t l i s t s and t e n d e r c a l l s p u b l i s h e d by t h e s e same a g e n c i e s . A l s o mentioned f a i r l y f r e q u e n t l y , but as s o u r c e s of l e s s e r importance, were " t r a d e j o u r n a l s and magazines". G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , magazines and p e r i o d i c a l s were mentioned a s u s e f u l - 184 -f o r keeping u p - t o - d a t e on i n d u s t r y and t e c h n o l o g i c a l developments b u t not f o r u n c o v e r i n g s p e c i f i c new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. S i g n i f i c a n t l y absent was any mention of t h e u s e f u l n e s s of o n - l i n e i n f o r m a t i o n d a t a - b a s e s , government p u b l i c a t i o n s ( i n c l u d i n g n a t i o n a l development p l a n s ) , or bank and o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n a l n e w s l e t t e r s . I n f a c t , p r i n t e d s o u r c e s , i n g e n e r a l , were not ranked n e a r l y as h i g h as human s o u r c e s . I n t h i s r e s p e c t , the i n f o r m a t i o n s e e k i n g b e h a v i o u r of t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y was v e r y much l i k e t h e b e h a v i o u r of respondents reviewed elsewhere i n the l i t e r a t u r e . A l l p r e f e r r e d " p e r s o n a l " over " n o n - p e r s o n a l " s o u r c e s . For example, of t h e 19 s o u r c e s mentioned by the respondents as most i m p o r t a n t , 18 were p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s and o n l y one was a p r i n t e d s o u r c e ( i . e . , r e g u l a r i n t e r n a l company r e p o r t s , memos or b r i e f i n g s ) . I n t h i s l a t t e r c a s e , i t may even be argued t h a t t h e s e memos were nothing more than t h e p r i n t e d summaries of t h e o b s e r v a t i o n s and l e a d s uncovered by human s o u r c e s i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e . I n t h a t s e n s e , t h e y might , more a c c u r a t e l y , be d e s c r i b e d as p e r s o n a l r a t h e r t h a n p r i n t e d s o u r c e s . R e g a r d l e s s of how t h i s p a r t i c u l a r s o u r c e i s i n t e r p r e t e d , the answers t o Quest ion 9 c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e a p r e f e r e n c e f o r p e r s o n a l over secondary and n o n - p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s . Furthermore, none of the respondents appeared t o be u s i n g an o r g a n i z e d s y s t e m a t i c scanning of the p r i n t e d or - 185 -e l e c t r o n i c media t o uncover new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. On t h e c o n t r a r y , the s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s i n t e r v i e w e d f o r t h i s s t u d y d i s p l a y e d a s t r o n g p r e f e r e n c e f o r r e c e i v i n g t h e i r i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN from p e r s o n a l r a t h e r than impersonal s o u r c e s . Only one f i r m u t i l i z e d an i n - h o u s e l i t e r a t u r e / media a b s t r a c t i o n s e r v i c e and, even t h e n , i t was p r i m a r i l y d e s i g n e d t o h e l p keep t h e f i r m ' s e n g i n e e r s a b r e a s t of t e c h n i c a l developments not new market o p p o r t u n i t i e s . T a b l e 3 1 summarizes the responses t o Q u e s t i o n 9. As mentioned above the r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d here s h o u l d be t r e a t e d w i t h some c a u t i o n . The r a n k i n g s merely r e f l e c t t h e number of mentions t h a t each source r e c e i v e d . A r a n k i n g of 1 was a s s i g n e d t o t h e most important s o u r c e , a r a n k i n g of 2 t o t h e next most important s o u r c e , e t c . Many p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s r e c e i v e d no mention a t a l l and have, t h u s , been d e l e t e d from t h e summary t a b l e . For a complete l i s t i n g of t h e s o u r c e s reviewed by the respondents , p l e a s e r e f e r Appendix 3. Once a g a i n , t h e t o t a l s i n T a b l e 31 do not n e c e s s a r i l y sum t o 2 1 because of m u l t i p l e answers. - 186 -T a b l e 3 1 . Ranking of P o t e n t i a l S o u r c e s Source P e r s o n a l C o n t a c t s of Company Employees O b s e r v a t i o n s Made During V i s i t t o ASEAN Customers Agents D e a l e r s and D i s t r i b u t o r s Company "Man i n t h e ASEAN Market" PEMD T r i p s t o the ASEAN Market Canadian Government Trade Commissioners Trade Shows Canadian E n g i n e e r i n g F irms CIDA C o n t a c t s and P e r s o n n e l I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency C o n t a c t s and Personnel J o i n t V e n t u r e P a r t n e r s Bankers L i c e n s e e s Other C o u n t r i e s ' Trade Commissioners Canadian E x p o r t e r s ' A s s o c i a t i o n R e g u l a r I n t e r n a l Company Reports from ASEAN T o t a l Number of Mentions a s "Most Important" Source 9 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 54 - 187 -Q u e s t i o n 1 0 : P l e a s e review the a t t a c h e d l i s t of " P u b l i s h e d S o u r c e s of I n f o r m a t i o n on ASEAN" (see Appendix 4 ) . I n d i c a t e which ones you use t o s t a y a b r e a s t of developments i n ASEAN and whether you read them r e g u l a r l y or o n l y s c a n them o c c a s i o n a l l y . Once a g a i n , t h i s q u e s t i o n was not p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l answered. There seemed t o be some c o n f u s i o n on t h e p a r t of t h e respondents between what they read t o keep a b r e a s t of developments i n ASEAN v e r s u s what they read t o keep informed g e n e r a l l y (on a l l s u b j e c t s and a l l r e g i o n s ) . What became q u i t e c l e a r i n the i n t e r v i e w s was t h a t v e r y l i t t l e t ime was a c t u a l l y spent r e a d i n g e x c l u s i v e l y about ASEAN. The respondents r e l i e d much more h e a v i l y on p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s and c o n t a c t s f o r i n f o r m a t i o n about ASEAN than upon any p r i n t e d or p u b l i s h e d s o u r c e . T h i s was p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e , w i t h r e s p e c t t o i d e n t i f y i n g new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. Most respondents echoed the comment made by one of t h e c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r s who noted t h a t by the t ime an o p p o r t u n i t y was r e p o r t e d i n the p r i n t e d media, i t was u s u a l l y too l a t e t o c a p i t a l i z e on i t . I n v a r i a b l y , t h e o p p o r t u n i t y had a l r e a d y been s e i z e d upon by the f i r s t f i r m t o get wind of i t through i t s c a r e f u l l y c u l t i v a t e d network of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s w e l l i n advance of the s t o r y a p p e a r i n g i n t h e media. - 188 -F u l l y 1 2 of t h e 2 1 respondents i n t e r v i e w e d ( 5 7 . 1 % ) , mentioned t h a t p r i n t e d or p u b l i s h e d s o u r c e s were r e a l l y of v e r y l i t t l e u s e i n u n c o v e r i n g new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. T h e i r r e a d i n g and s c a n n i n g of the p r i n t e d media was g e n e r a l l y undertaken f o r i n f o r m a t i o n purposes o n l y . P u b l i s h e d s o u r c e s , t h e y f e l t , were r e a l l y o n l y u s e f u l as a supplement t o the l e a d s a l r e a d y gathered through t h e i r network of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s or f o r keeping a b r e a s t of g e n e r a l economic and p o l i t i c a l t r e n d s . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , o n l y one f i r m mentioned u s i n g any k i n d of computer ized d a t a base or i n f o r m a t i o n s e r v i c e . I n t h a t c a s e , i t was an a b s t r a c t i n g s e r v i c e run by the p a r e n t c o r p o r a t i o n i n the U n i t e d Kingdom and made a v a i l a b l e t o a l l i t s a f f i l i a t e s worldwide. However, the a b s t r a c t i n g s e r v i c e , i n q u e s t i o n , was p r i m a r i l y designed t o keep the company's e n g i n e e r s u p - t o - d a t e on t e c h n i c a l i n n o v a t i o n s and i n d u s t r y developments r a t h e r than h e l p them uncover s p e c i f i c market o p p o r t u n i t i e s . The p u b l i s h e d s o u r c e r e c e i v i n g the most mentions as b e i n g r e g u l a r l y read was, not s u r p r i s i n g l y , the s p e c i a l i z e d t r a d e j o u r n a l p e c u l i a r t o t h a t p a r t i c u l a r r e s p o n d e n t ' s s e c t o r . When one r e a l i z e s t h a t t h e r e are over 500 s p e c i a l i z e d t r a d e j o u r n a l s and 1 , 5 0 0 o n - l i n e commercial and f i n a n c i a l 1 cc d a t a b a s e s a v a i l a b l e i n Canada a l o n e , the p r o s p e c t of - 189 -m o n i t o r i n g a l l t h e s e s o u r c e s becomes d a u n t i n g i n d e e d . F o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e appear t o be two or t h r e e major p u b l i c a t i o n s which dominate each s e c t o r ( f o r example, WOODWORLD i n t h e f o r e s t r y s e c t o r , OILWEEK i n t h e energy s e c t o r and CHEMICAL WEEK i n the c h e m i c a l s s e c t o r ) . I t would seem p r u d e n t , t h e r e f o r e , f o r any new or p o t e n t i a l e x p o r t e r t o r e g u l a r l y monitor t h e two or t h r e e major i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e j o u r n a l s i n h i s f i e l d . Even t h i s t a s k , however, can become e x t r e m e l y t ime consuming. For example, one of t h e s p e c i a l i z e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment m a n u f a c t u r e r s i n t h i s s t u d y s u b s c r i b e d t o over 50 t r a d e j o u r n a l s a l o n e , not t o mention t h e h o s t of other g e n e r a l purpose b u s i n e s s magazines i t r e c e i v e d . I n an attempt t o a l l e v i a t e some of t h i s l i t e r a t u r e burden, s e v e r a l respondent f i r m s t r i e d t o d i v i d e t h e r e a d i n g l o a d among t h e i r e x e c u t i v e s . Whi le t h i s reduced t h e i n d i v i d u a l ' s r e a d i n g l o a d , i t f o r c e d the e x e c u t i v e s t o r e l y more and more upon the d i l i g e n c e of t h e i r c o l l e a g u e s t o keep them informed of any a r t i c l e s of i n t e r e s t t o them. That d i l i g e n c e , i n t u r n , was dependent upon the i n t e r n a l working r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h i n the f i r m . I n some f i r m s t h i s d i v i s i o n of l a b o u r and i n f o r m a t i o n s h a r i n g worked, i n o t h e r s i t , c l e a r l y , d i d n o t . I n the l a t t e r c a s e s , i f t h e r e c e i v i n g e x e c u t i v e s f e l t t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n was being w i t h h e l d or o v e r l o o k e d , they i n v a r i a b l y r e v e r t e d t o t h e i r e a r l i e r s c a n n i n g h a b i t s and attempted to review e v e r y t h i n g t h a t c i r c u l a t e d p a s t them. - 190 -Among t h e more g e n e r a l i z e d j o u r n a l s and p e r i o d i c a l s r e c e i v i n g a l a r g e number of mentions were t h e E c o n o m i s t , t h e CanadExport n e w s l e t t e r , B . C . B u s i n e s s , and t h e N e w s l e t t e r s and O p e r a t i o n a l Summaries p u b l i s h e d by the World Bank and t h e A s i a n Development Bank. The Vancouver Sun and P r o v i n c e , both r e c e i v e d s e v e r a l mentions as u s e f u l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n , a l t h o u g h an equal number of respondents i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y found the l o c a l Vancouver p a p e r s t o be of no h e l p , a t a l l , i n u n c o v e r i n g b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. The consensus was t h a t they were b a r e l y adequate f o r s t a y i n g u p - t o - d a t e on news r e l a t e d t o ASEAN, l e t a l o n e on new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Among t h e s p e c i a l i z e d geographic magazines and j o u r n a l s , both t h e F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review and Asiaweek were h i g h l y recommended, a l though most respondents a d m i t t e d i t was d i f f i c u l t t o keep u p - t o - d a t e on e i t h e r , because of t h e sheer volume of d e t a i l packed i n t o each i s s u e ( p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review). S e v e r a l respondents recommended r e a d i n g the l o c a l ASEAN b u s i n e s s p a p e r s , a l though they acknowledged t h a t t h i s was u s u a l l y o n l y p o s s i b l e w h i l e a c t u a l l y t r a v e l l i n g i n t h e ASEAN r e g i o n i t s e l f . There does not appear to be any B r i t i s h Columbia -based source c a r r y i n g t h e s e papers on a r e g u l a r - 191 -b a s i s . The Hong Kong-based S ing Tao newspaper group attempted t o p r i n t , i n Vancouver ( v i a s a t e l l i t e ) , a d a i l y E n g l i s h language newspaper focused on A s i a , but i t f o l d e d i n l a t e 1988 due t o a l a c k of r e a d e r s h i p . I n g e n e r a l , t h e r e f o r e , most respondents were of t h e o p i n i o n t h a t t h e r e was no one p u b l i s h e d source which was of p a r t i c u l a r h e l p i n s t a y i n g a b r e a s t of developments i n ASEAN, or of use i n u n c o v e r i n g new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Furthermore, most respondents c a n d i d l y a d m i t t e d t h a t t h e y had v e r y l i t t l e t ime t o read a n y t h i n g and tended, t h e r e f o r e , t o s c a n most j o u r n a l s and p e r i o d i c a l s i n g r e a t h a s t e , r e a d i n g o n l y t h e most c o m p e l l i n g and r e l e v a n t a r t i c l e s i n d e t a i l . T a b l e 32 summarizes the responses t o Q u e s t i o n 1 0 . No attempt was made t o sum the t o t a l number of mentions because s e v e r a l respondents i n d i c a t e d t h a t they r e g u l a r l y r e a d more t h a n one s o u r c e . - 192 -T a b l e 3 2 . P u b l i s h e d Sources R e g u l a r l y Read Source Number of Mentions S p e c i a l i z e d Trade J o u r n a l s 8 Economist 5 CanadExport N e w s l e t t e r * 4 B . C . B u s i n e s s 4 World B a n k / A s i a n Development Bank N e w s l e t t e r s and O p e r a t i o n a l Summaries 4 The P r o v i n c e 4 The Vancouver Sun 3 Asiaweek 3 F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review 3 B u s i n e s s I n t e r n a t i o n a l 2 S p e c i a l i z e d Geographic N e w s l e t t e r s 2 Time 2 Globe and M a i l 2 F i n a n c i a l P o s t 2 L o c a l ASEAN Papers (when i n ASEAN) 2 B u s i n e s s A s i a 1 Fortune 1 Canadian Export A s s o c i a t i o n B u l l e t i n 1 No s o u r c e p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l 12 * m a i l e d f r e e of charge to a l l Canadian e x p o r t e r s r e g i s t e r e d i n t h e f e d e r a l government's PEMD program or BOSS and WIN EXPORT d a t a b a s e s . - 193 -Q u e s t i o n 1 1 ; Approximately how many hours a week do you spend t r y i n g t o keep up on r e a d i n g r e l a t e d t o ASEAN? I s t h i s r e a d i n g done a t home or the o f f i c e ? The response r a t e on t h i s q u e s t i o n was not p a r t i c u l a r l y h i g h . Any c o n c l u s i o n s , t h e r e f o r e , s h o u l d be t r e a t e d w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e c a u t i o n . About 1 / 3 of the respondents d i d not s p e c i f y t h e amount of t ime they spent r e a d i n g e x c l u s i v e l y about ASEAN. The r e s t were f a i r l y e v e n l y d i s t r i b u t e d ; w i t h f o u r respondents spending no time r e a d i n g e x c l u s i v e l y about ASEAN, f o u r respondents spending between one and f i v e hours p e r week, f o u r respondents spending between s i x and 10 hours p e r week, and two respondents spending more t h a n 10 hours p e r week r e a d i n g about ASEAN. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g to note the t h r e e i n d i v i d u a l s who r e p o r t e d spending t h e most t ime r e a d i n g about ASEAN (one spending 10 hours a week and t h e other two spending more t h a n 10 hours a week) had a l l been w i t h t h e i r f i r m s f o r l o n g e r t h a n 10 y e a r s . Two of them were founders and p r e s i d e n t s of t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e companies, w h i l e the t h i r d was w i d e l y acknowledged as h i s f i r m ' s "eminence g r i s e " . S e c t o r a l l y , one i n d i v i d u a l was from the c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g s e c t o r , one was from the p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s e c t o r and t h e t h i r d was from t h e s p e c i a l i z e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment s e c t o r . - 194 -The problems w i t h t h e r e s p o n s e s t o t h i s q u e s t i o n were b a s i c a l l y t w o - f o l d . F i r s t of a l l , i t would appear t h a t many of t h e respondents answered w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i r t o t a l r e a d i n g l o a d , not j u s t t h a t p o r t i o n of i t which was devoted t o ASEAN. T h i s o v e r - r e p o r t i n g would seem t o be borne out i n l i g h t of t h e i r e a r l i e r responses to Q u e s t i o n 1 0 , wherein t h e y i n d i c a t e d t h a t a l a r g e number of t h e p u b l i s h e d s o u r c e s which t h e y read seldom, i f e v e r , p r i n t e d a s t o r y about ASEAN. The second p a r t of the problem has t o do w i t h what might be c a l l e d the "respondents ' need t o appear on top of t h e s i t u a t i o n " . Having been i d e n t i f i e d , f o r t h e purposes of t h i s s t u d y , as t h e i r o r g a n i z a t i o n ' s s e n i o r most e x e c u t i v e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r ASEAN, they may have been r e l u c t a n t t o admit t h a t t h e y spent l i t t l e , or no, t ime a c t u a l l y r e a d i n g about ASEAN. On the o t h e r hand, a t l e a s t four of the respondents d i s p l a y e d no such r e l u c t a n c e a t a l l and r e a d i l y a d m i t t e d t h e y d i d n ' t spend any time a t a l l r e a d i n g e x c l u s i v e l y about ASEAN. I n s e v e r a l of t h e s e c a s e s , the t a s k of s t a y i n g a b r e a s t of developments i n ASEAN was " d e l e g a t e d t o t h e i r man i n t h e f i e l d . " The v a s t m a j o r i t y of the respondents , however, i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y d i d t h e i r g e n e r a l r e a d i n g on ASEAN a t home. T h e i r most common compla int was t h a t they were s i m p l y too busy a t work t o be a b l e t o a f f o r d the time f o r t h i s k i n d of g e n e r a l i n f o r m a t i o n r e a d i n g . What l i t t l e ASEAN m a t e r i a l t h e y d i d - 195 -r e a d a t t h e o f f i c e , on company t i m e , was s p e c i f i c a l l y d i r e c t e d towards t h e i r f i r m ' s ASEAN a c t i v i t i e s . Most i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y were expected t o read a l l r e l e v a n t ASEAN magazines and t r a d e j o u r n a l s , a t home, on t h e i r own t i m e . T a b l e 33 summarizes the responses t o Q u e s t i o n 1 1 . The r e s u l t s s h o u l d be regarded w i t h some c a u t i o n , f o r t h e r e a s o n s mentioned above. T a b l e 3 3 . Hours/Week Spent Reading about ASEAN Hours/Week Number of Respondents 0 hours 1 - 5 hours 6 - 1 0 hours more t h a n 10 hours d i d n o t / c o u l d not s p e c i f y 4 4 4 2 7 T o t a l 21 Q u e s t i o n 1 2 : How important i s ASEAN to your f i r m ? The respondents were asked t o r a t e ASEAN 1s importance t o t h e i r f i r m a g a i n s t seven other geographic a r e a s i n a s e r i e s of p a i r e d comparisons. They were asked t o compare ASEAN a g a i n s t A f r i c a , L a t i n America, North America, North A s i a ( d e f i n e d as i n c l u d i n g Japan, Korea, C h i n a , Taiwan and Hong Kong), Western Europe, E a s t e r n Europe, A u s t r a l i a and New Z e a l a n d . G i v e n the r e l a t i v e unimportance of the Middle - 196 -E a s t , t h e I n d i a n S u b c o n t i n e n t and Oceania t o B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s c u r r e n t export p r o f i l e , t h e y were not asked t o r a t e ASEAN a g a i n s t t h e s e t h r e e a r e a s . I t i s worth n o t i n g , t h a t t h e Middle E a s t had been a market of c o n s i d e r a b l e importance t o some of the respondents d u r i n g t h e hey days of t h e OPEC p r i c e boom. With the f a l l i n o i l p r i c e s , however, c o n t r a c t s i n t h e Middle E a s t had a l l but d r i e d up. S i m i l a r l y , w h i l e I n d i a was not c u r r e n t l y a major market f o r t h e r e s p o n d e n t s , many of them h e l d h i g h hopes f o r i t i n t h e n o t - t o o - d i s t a n t f u t u r e . Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , t h e r e was a v e r y h i g h l e v e l of agreement among t h e respondents t h a t North America was, t h e most important market f o r t h e i r f i r m , much more important t h a n ASEAN. N i n e t e e n of 2 1 respondents ( 9 0 . 5 % ) , ranked North America h i g h e r t h a n ASEAN. The two f i r m s which ranked ASEAN as more important than North America were from t h e p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l and s p e c i a l i z e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s e c t o r s . Both were h e a v i l y dependent on the o i l and gas i n d u s t r y and both were working i n ASEAN f o r some of the same f i r m s t h a t t h e y had p r e v i o u s l y worked f o r i n the boom days of t h e North Sea and MacKenzie D e l t a o i l f i e l d s . I n c o n t r a s t t o t h e i r overwhelming agreement on t h e importance of North America, the respondents were much more e v e n l y s p l i t on the r e l a t i v e importance of ASEAN as compared - 197 -t o A u s t r a l i a and New Z e a l a n d . E l e v e n of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ( 5 2 . 4 % ) f e l t t h a t ASEAN was more important t h a n A u s t r a l i a and New Z e a l a n d , w h i l e 10 o t h e r s (47.6%) f e l t i t was l e s s i m p o r t a n t . F i g u r i n g p r o m i n e n t l y among t h e former group were t h e major r e s o u r c e e x p o r t e r s and the r e s o u r c e machinery and equipment m a n u f a c t u r e r s , both of whom had made s i g n i f i c a n t i n r o a d s i n t o t h e ASEAN market. On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e r e was f a i r l y widespread agreement t h a t ASEAN was more important than A f r i c a (by a margin of 1 5 t o 6 ) , North A s i a (by a margin of 12 t o 6 w i t h 3 f i r m s r a n k i n g them about even) and E a s t e r n Europe (by a margin of 18 t o 3 ) . O p i n i o n s were much more d i v i d e d , however, w i t h r e s p e c t t o L a t i n America and Western Europe. E l e v e n of 2 1 f i r m s ( 5 2 . 4 % ) ranked ASEAN as more important t h a n L a t i n America, 8 f i r m s ( 3 8 . 1 % ) ranked ASEAN as l e s s important and 2 f i r m s ( 9 . 5 % ) ranked them as being about the same importance. S i m i l a r l y , o p i n i o n over Western Europe was a l s o d i v i d e d w i t h 12 f i r m s ( 5 7 . 1 % ) r a n k i n g ASEAN as b e i n g more important t h a n Western Europe and 9 f i r m s ( 4 2 . 9 % ) r a n k i n g i t as l e s s important than Western Europe. The importance of the v a r i o u s markets o b v i o u s l y v a r i e s by company, and w h i l e i t i s d i f f i c u l t to make any major g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a c r o s s s e c t o r s a few of the r a n k i n g s a r e q u i t e c o n s i s t e n t . For example, a l l 5 of the c o n s u l t i n g - 198 -e n g i n e e r i n g f i r m s i n t e r v i e w e d ranked ASEAN as l e s s i m p o r t a n t t o t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s t h a n North America (even though ASEAN, i n some i n d i v i d u a l c a s e s , c o n t r i b u t e d up t o 3 0% of t h e i r a n n u a l s a l e s ) . C o n v e r s e l y , a l l 5 c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g f i r m s ranked ASEAN as more important t h a n E a s t e r n Europe a s a market . T h e i r o p i n i o n was much more d i v i d e d , however, w i t h r e s p e c t t o A f r i c a , L a t i n America, Western Europe and A u s t r a l i a and New Zealand ( a l l of which t h e y ranked as l e s s important t h a n ASEAN, but o n l y by a margin of 3 t o 2) . O p i n i o n over North A s i a was even more d i v i d e d , w i t h 2 of t h e c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g f i r m s r a n k i n g i t as l e s s i m p o r t a n t t h a n ASEAN, 2 of t h e f i r m s r a n k i n g i t as about e q u a l t o ASEAN and o n l y 1 f i r m r a n k i n g i t as more important t h a n ASEAN. The g e n e r a l consensus b e i n g , t h a t w h i l e J a p a n and Korea were i n f i n i t e l y l a r g e r markets , t h e y both had s o p h i s t i c a t e d domestic e n g i n e e r i n g companies and had, t h e r e f o r e , adopted an e s s e n t i a l l y c l o s e d market a t t i t u d e towards f o r e i g n e n g i n e e r i n g f i r m s . As mentioned e a r l i e r , the r e s o u r c e product e x p o r t e r s a l s o d i s p l a y e d a c e r t a i n c o n s i s t e n c y i n t h e i r r a n k i n g s of ASEAN as an export market. For example, a l l t h r e e r e s o u r c e e x p o r t e r s ranked ASEAN as l e s s important than North America , L a t i n America, North A s i a , A u s t r a l i a and New Z e a l a n d . S i m i l a r l y , a l l t h r e e f i r m s ranked ASEAN as more important t o - 199 -t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s than A f r i c a and E a s t e r n Europe. I n f a c t , t h e i r o n l y p o i n t of d isagreement a r o s e over t h e r e l a t i v e r a n k i n g of ASEAN v e r s u s Western Europe. Two of t h e t h r e e r e s o u r c e e x p o r t e r s ranked Western Europe as more i m p o r t a n t t h a n ASEAN, w h i l e t h e other f i r m c o n s i d e r e d Western Europe t o be l e s s important t h a n ASEAN. G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , t h e r e s o u r c e e x p o r t e r s ' e v a l u a t i o n of t h e i r e x p o r t markets v e r y c l o s e l y p a r a l l e l s the o v e r a l l geographic d i s t r i b u t i o n of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s e x p o r t s (which sees between 4 3 - 5 0 % of t h e p r o v i n c e ' s t o t a l e x p o r t s going t o the U n i t e d S t a t e s , about 38% t o t h e A s i a P a c i f i c r e g i o n , and about 14% t o Western E u r o p e ) . Because of the r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l number of f i r m s i n t e r v i e w e d i n each of the o t h e r e i g h t s e c t o r s , i t would be m i s l e a d i n g t o draw any p a r t i c u l a r c o n c l u s i o n s about t h e i r g e o g r a p h i c market p r e f e r e n c e s v i s - a - v i s ASEAN. Such i n - d e p t h s e c t o r s u r v e y s would, however, be i n t e r e s t i n g and i n f o r m a t i v e s t u d i e s i n , and o f , t h e m s e l v e s . T a b l e 34 summarizes the answers to Q u e s t i o n 1 2 . The t o t a l number of respondents was, once a g a i n , 2 1 . - 2 0 0 -T a b l e 34. Importance of ASEAN by P a i r e d Comparisons Number of Respondents Ranking ASEAN a s : More L e s s About Region Important Important E q u a l T o t a l ASEAN v s . AFRICA 1 5 6 0 2 1 ASEAN v s . LATIN AMERICA 1 1 8 2 2 1 ASEAN v s . NORTH AMERICA 2 19 0 2 1 ASEAN v s . NORTH ASIA 12 6 3 2 1 ASEAN v s . WESTERN EUROPE 12 9 0 2 1 ASEAN v s . EASTERN EUROPE 18 3 0 2 1 ASEAN v s . AUSTRALIA and 1 1 10 0 2 1 NEW ZEALAND One f i n a l o b s e r v a t i o n of i n t e r e s t , which emerged from t h e s t u d y , concerns the c r o s s l i n k a g e s between t h e v a r i o u s s e c t o r s and t h e number of ASEAN - c o u n t r i e s t h o s e s e c t o r s were a c t i v e i n . I n d o n e s i a , f o r example, was t h e s i n g l e most p r e v a l e n t market of involvement a c r o s s a l l s e c t o r s . Seventeen of the 2 1 f i r m s (81%) i n t e r v i e w e d had been involved, ; a t one t ime or another , i n I n d o n e s i a . M a l a y s i a was t h e second most p r e v a l e n t market w i t h 1 5 of 2 1 f i r m s ( 7 1 . 4 % ) h a v i n g been i n v o l v e d t h e r e . T h a i l a n d was h o s t t o 14 of 2 1 f i r m s ( 6 6 . 6 % ) , the P h i l i p p i n e s t o 12 of 2 1 f i r m s ( 5 7 . 1 % ) and Singapore to 1 1 of 2 1 f i r m ( 5 2 . 4 % ) . Only 2 of t h e respondent f i r m s ( 9 . 5 % ) , on the other hand, had been s u c c e s s f u l i n B r u n e i . One was a c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g f i r m - 2 0 1 -and t h e o t h e r was a m a n u f a c t u r e r of p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l equipment. P e r h a p s , not s u r p r i s i n g l y , I n d o n e s i a was t h e market most commonly p e n e t r a t e d by t h e c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r s , a l t h o u g h t h e y were a l s o h e a v i l y r e p r e s e n t e d i n M a l a y s i a , T h a i l a n d and t h e P h i l i p p i n e s . The n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e p r o d u c t e x p o r t e r s , on t h e o t h e r hand, were a c t i v e i n a l l ASEAN markets e x c e p t B r u n e i , as were the s p e c i a l i z e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment m a n u f a c t u r e r s and s e r v i c e f i r m s . The s a t e l l i t e and a e r i a l mapping s e c t o r was a l s o w e l l r e p r e s e n t e d i n a l l major ASEAN markets ( i n c l u d i n g B r u n e i , where a major s a l e was c o n c l u d e d s h o r t l y a f t e r t h e i n t e r v i e w s were completed),. I n c o n t r a s t , t h e o t h e r s e c t o r s , such as r e s o u r c e e x t r a c t i o n machinery and equipment, and c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s tended t o be c l u s t e r e d i n t h e l a r g e r r e s o u r c e - r i c h markets of I n d o n e s i a , M a l a y s i a and T h a i l a n d . Many of t h e s e f i r m s had a l s o been a c t i v e i n t h e P h i l i p p i n e s , but had s i n c e withdrawn because of t h e i n t e r m i n a b l e p o l i t i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s and the d e t e r i o r a t i n g economic s i t u a t i o n . S i n g a p o r e , on the other hand, was u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d as a r e g i o n a l s a l e s or s e r v i c e c e n t r e by t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y , and not as a major market i n , and o f , i t s e l f . I f t h e r e was one c o n s i s t e n t theme which extended a c r o s s a l l markets and s e c t o r s , i t was the s t r i k i n g degree of - 202 -complementar i ty between the development needs of t h e r e s o u r c e - r i c h ASEAN c o u n t r i e s and t h e heavy r e s o u r c e - r e l a t e d component of the goods and s e r v i c e s b e i n g o f f e r e d f o r s a l e by t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y . Some f i r m s succeeded i n ASEAN by o f f e r i n g t o export the s p e c i a l i z e d equipment and e x p e r t i s e t h e y had developed w h i l e e x p l o i t i n g B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s own n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e endowments. O t h e r s s i m p l y o f f e r e d f o r s a l e the k i n d of r e s o u r c e - b a s e d p r o d u c t s t h a t ASEAN l a c k s and must, t h e r e f o r e , import from abroad. C o n s p i c u o u s l y absent from the r e s p o n d e n t s ' e x p o r t o f f e r i n g s were t h e k i n d of g e n e r a l purpose i n d u s t r i a l machinery and consumer p r o d u c t s t h a t so dominate the J a p a n e s e , European and American export p r o f i l e to ASEAN. Whether by d e s i g n or by d e f a u l t , t h e B r i t i s h Columbia f i r m s , i n t h i s s t u d y , seemed t o be f o l l o w i n g v e r y c l o s e l y the d i c t a t e s of comparat ive advantage and s p e c i a l i z i n g i n t h o s e a r e a s i n which t h e y had some unique r e s o u r c e endowment or c o s t advantage. The g r e a t q u e s t i o n hanging over many of t h e s e t r a n s a c t i o n s , however, i s whether or not t h e r e w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be a demand f o r t h e s e k i n d s of p r o d u c t s and s e r v i c e s i n the f u t u r e as ASEAN p r o g r e s s e s up the development l a d d e r . C e r t a i n l y , t h e r e a r e some b a s i c r e s o u r c e s t h a t ASEAN s i m p l y l a c k s (or has long s i n c e exhausted) and f o r B . C . f i r m s i n t h e s e s e c t o r s , the f u t u r e l o o k s r e l a t i v e l y b r i g h t . For other s e c t o r s , however, the indigenous ASEAN c a p a b i l i t y t o produce the k i n d s of goods and s e r v i c e s c u r r e n t l y b e i n g - 203 -imported i s p r o g r e s s i n g i n l e a p s and bounds. As t h e ASEAN c o u n t r i e s become more and more p r o f i c i e n t i n t h e s e a r e a s , we s h o u l d expect t o see the l e v e l of B . C . e x p o r t s i n t h e s e s e c t o r s t a p e r o f f or even d e c l i n e . At t h a t p o i n t i n t i m e , we s h o u l d a l s o expect t o see those B . C . f i r m s which have i n v e s t e d i n a l o c a l assembly or p r o d u c t i o n f a c i l i t y i n ASEAN (whether i t be w h o l l y owned or a j o i n t v e n t u r e arrangement) r e a l l y b e g i n t o reap the b e n e f i t s of t h e i r l o c a l i z a t i o n s t r a t e g y . - 204 -PART V ~ CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS As e x p e c t e d , t h e B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s i n t h i s s t u d y , found p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n t o be of much g r e a t e r importance t h a n n o n - p e r s o n a l or documentary s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n ( i n c l u d i n g e l e c t r o n i c d a t a b a s e s ) . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e y d i s p l a y e d a c l e a r p r e f e r e n c e f o r s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n which were e x t e r n a l , r a t h e r t h a n i n t e r n a l , t o t h e i r o r g a n i z a t i o n s . I n l i g h t of o t h e r s i m i l a r s t u d i e s r e p o r t e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , t h e s e f i n d i n g s were not unexpected. I n many r e s p e c t s , t h e i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s u t i l i z e d by B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s i n ASEAN were v e r y s i m i l a r t o t h o s e u t i l i z e d by t h e American and European e x p o r t e r s reviewed elsewhere i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l b u s i n e s s l i t e r a t u r e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , because much l e s s i s known about t h e i n f o r m a t i o n s e e k i n g p r e f e r e n c e s of Japanese e x p o r t e r s , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o make any s i g n i f i c a n t comparisons w i t h t h e B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s i n t h i s s t u d y . However, i n d i c a t i o n s a r e t h a t t h e Japanese p l a c e a much g r e a t e r emphasis on n o n - p e r s o n a l p u b l i s h e d and documentary s o u r c e s ( i n c l u d i n g e l e c t r o n i c databases) t h a n do North American or European e x p o r t e r s . For example, a c c o r d i n g t o a r e c e n t s u r v e y by t h e Japan Development Bank, the top f i v e s o u r c e s of o u t s i d e i n f o r m a t i o n used by Japanese managers a r e b u s i n e s s and t r a d e newspapers, t r a d e magazines, p e r s o n a l - 205 -c o n t a c t s , s p e c i a l t y books, and company r e p o r t s . However, t h a t same J a p a n Development Bank s u r v e y a l s o found t h a t " . . . 65 p e r c e n t of Japanese managers a c t i v e l y c u l t i v a t e 157 a c q u a i n t a n c e s as i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s " . J a p a n e s e c o r p o r a t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t r a d i n g companies, a l s o seem t o p l a c e a much g r e a t e r emphasis on i n t e r n a l company-wide i n f o r m a t i o n systems. A c c o r d i n g t o t h e C a n a d i a n embassy i n Tokyo, f o r example, "each major Japanese t r a d i n g company m a i n t a i n s a network of f o r e i g n o f f i c e s l a r g e r t h a n t h e Japanese government's r e p r e s e n t a t i o n abroad. These i n f o r m a t i o n networks a r e c o n s i d e r e d among t h e v e r y b e s t i n t h e world and p r o v i d e t h e b a s i s f o r an e v e r - e x p a n d i n g r o l e of t r a d i n g companies m world t r a d e . "J-~ ,° Each and e v e r y n i g h t , t e l e x e s a r e d i s p a t c h e d from t h e s e innumerable o v e r s e a s " l i s t e n i n g p o s t s " back t o Tokyo, where t h e y a r e c o l l e c t e d , c o l l a t e d and r e d i s t r i b u t e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e needs or o p p o r t u n i t i e s i d e n t i f i e d . The annual t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s expenses i n v o l v e d i n m a i n t a i n i n g such a v a s t i n f o r m a t i o n network f a r exceed the annual g r o s s revenues of many 1 m i d - s i z e d Canadian c o r p o r a t i o n s . T h e r e f o r e , as f a r as the q u e s t i o n of whether or not B . C . e x p o r t e r s i n ASEAN a r e o p e r a t i n g a t some s o r t of i n f o r m a t i o n d i s a d v a n t a g e v i s - a - v i s t h e i r major c o m p e t i t o r s , t h e answer would appear t o be no. A l l e x p o r t e r s a c t i v e i n t h e market - 206 -appear t o be r e l y i n g on p e r s o n a l r a t h e r t h a n n o n - p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n , a l t h o u g h t h e J a p a n e s e do seem t o have t h e i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g s i d e of t h e e q u a t i o n under b e t t e r c o n t r o l . Even t h e n , t h e i r i n i t i a l i n p u t i n t o t h i s p r o c e s s s t i l l comes from t h e b u s i n e s s need or o p p o r t u n i t y i d e n t i f i e d by t h e company's l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e i n t h e market . I t must be a d m i t t e d , however, t h a t s i n c e t h e r e a r e no A S E A N - s p e c i f i c r e v i e w s of American, European or J a p a n e s e i n f o r m a t i o n - s e e k i n g b e h a v i o u r i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l b u s i n e s s l i t e r a t u r e , we must base our c o n c l u s i o n s on r e p o r t s of t h e i r b e h a v i o u r i n o t h e r l a r g e r export m a r k e t s . As expected, t h e s i n g l e most important s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on new ASEAN b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , r e p o r t e d by r e s p o n d e n t s i n t h i s s t u d y , was "the p e r s o n a l network of c o n t a c t s developed by t h e f i r m ' s own p e r s o n n e l " . Other i m p o r t a n t " p e r s o n a l " s o u r c e s i n c l u d e d t h e f i r m ' s own " l o c a l man i n t h e f i e l d " (whether he be an agent , d i s t r i b u t o r or j o i n t v e n t u r e p a r t n e r ) , "former customers", and " c o n t a c t s e s t a b l i s h e d d u r i n g a p r e v i o u s v i s i t t o ASEAN". I f an ongoing l o c a l p r e s e n c e i n t h e r e g i o n was not c o n s i d e r e d f e a s i b l e , then s e v e r a l of t h e respondents i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y r e l i e d on " r e g u l a r a t t e n d a n c e a t i n d u s t r y t r a d e f a i r s and forums" and " f r e q u e n t v i s i t s t o the market by t h e f i r m ' s s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s " . I n t h e former c a s e , t h e y attended because of t h e v a l u a b l e c o n t a c t s made a t t h o s e i n d u s t r y forums ( r a t h e r - 207 -t h a n t h e a c t u a l s a l e s concluded t h e r e ) and, i n t h e l a t t e r c a s e , because f r e q u e n t market v i s i t s h e l p demonstrate t h e f i r m ' s commitment t o t h e ASEAN r e g i o n (as w e l l a s p r o v i d i n g an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r t h e f i r m ' s e x e c u t i v e s t o b u i l d up t h e i r own network of l o c a l c o n t a c t s i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e ) . I n a d d i t i o n , f r e q u e n t v i s i t s t o ASEAN p e r m i t t h e h e a d q u a r t e r s e x e c u t i v e s i n v o l v e d t o o b s e r v e , f i r s t h a n d , t h e o p p o r t u n i t i e s and c h a l l e n g e s p r e s e n t e d by t h e m a r k e t p l a c e . One a r e a where t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y v a r i e d q u i t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y from t h e expected r e s u l t s was i n t h e r e l a t i v e unimportance of t h e " u n s o l i c i t e d e x p o r t o r d e r " . I n most of t h e European and American s t u d i e s r e p o r t e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , i t was t h e unexpected and u n s o l i c i t e d e x p o r t order which f i r s t p r o p e l l e d t h e m a j o r i t y of f i r m s i n t o t h e export m a r k e t p l a c e . I n c o n t r a s t , u n s o l i c i t e d e x p o r t o r d e r s were extremely r a r e i n the c a s e of B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN. I n f a c t , o n l y 1 of t h e 2 1 e x p o r t e r s i n t e r v i e w e d r e p o r t e d r e c e i v i n g an u n s o l i c i t e d ASEAN e x p o r t o r d e r . One p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e l i e s i n t h e g e o g r a p h i c remoteness of t h e ASEAN market as compared t o t h e r e l a t i v e l y a d j a c e n t n a t u r e of t h e export markets r e f e r r e d t o i n t h e American and European s t u d i e s . Many of t h e u n s o l i c i t e d export o r d e r s i n t h e American s t u d i e s , f o r example, came from Canada and many of the u n s o l i c i t e d export o r d e r s i n the European s t u d i e s came from o t h e r western - 208 -European c o u n t r i e s . Another p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e may l i e i n t h e r e l a t i v e l y unknown r e p u t a t i o n of many B . C . s u p p l i e r s . C e r t a i n l y , B . C . and C a n a d i a n s u p p l i e r s do not immediate ly l e a p i n t o t h e mind of t h e p o t e n t i a l ASEAN b u y e r . I n s t e a d , he or she i s much more l i k e l y t o t h i n k of European or American or even Japanese s o u r c e s of s u p p l y . U n d e r s t a n d a b l y , t h e r e f o r e , when t h e ASEAN buyer i s a c t i v e l y l o o k i n g f o r a s o u r c e of s u p p l y , he or she i s much more l i k e l y t o make an " u n s o l i c i t e d " approach t o a n o n - C a n a d i a n s u p p l i e r t h a n t o a B . C . company. T h e r e f o r e , g i v e n t h e obvious importance a t t a c h e d t o a s t r o n g l o c a l p r e s e n c e i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e , i t i s recommended t h a t t h e f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments g i v e s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n t o t h e l e v e l of support t h e y c u r r e n t l y o f f e r t o Canadian f i r m s t r a v e l l i n g abroad i n order t o e s t a b l i s h a l o c a l s a l e s p r e s e n c e ( i n c l u d i n g t h e appointment of a g e n t s , d i s t r i b u t o r s and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s ) . I n p a r t i c u l a r , both l e v e l s of governments s h o u l d c o n s i d e r i n c r e a s i n g t h e d o l l a r amount of t h e support t h e y c u r r e n t l y o f f e r t o C a n a d i a n e x p o r t e r s t r a v e l l i n g t o f o r e i g n markets a n d / o r i n c r e a s i n g t h e number of t r i p s a f i r m i s p e r m i t t e d t o make t o t h o s e markets i n any g i v e n y e a r . At the p r e s e n t t i m e , Canadian f i r m s a r e g e n e r a l l y l i m i t e d t o one t r i p , p e r market, p e r y e a r on t h e i r own i n i t i a t i v e (a l though t h e y may s u b s e q u e n t l y r e v i s i t some of t h e s e markets as p a r t of a government-- 209 -i n i t i a t e d t r a d e m i s s i o n or t r a d e f a i r p r o m o t i o n ) . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e expenses covered on such s e l f - i n i t i a t e d t r i p s a r e u s u a l l y l i m i t e d t o t h e c o s t of one economy c l a s s r e t u r n a i r f a r e ( r e p a y a b l e , i n t h e c a s e of t h e f e d e r a l program, i f s a l e i s s u b s e q u e n t l y made). W h i l e both l e v e l s of government c l e a r l y r e c o g n i z e t h e importance of g e t t i n g Canadian e x p o r t e r s t o t h e m a r k e t p l a c e t h e y have not extended t h e i r support beyond t h e f i r s t i n i t i a l market f o r a y . T h i s , d e s p i t e t h e f a c t , t h a t t h e message from s u c c e s s f u l e x p o r t e r s i s c r y s t a l c l e a r - one q u i c k t r i p t o t h e market i s v i r t u a l l y u s e l e s s . What i s r e q u i r e d , i n s t e a d a r e a number of r e p e a t e d t r i p s t o t h e market o r , b e t t e r y e t , an ongoing and permanent l o c a l p r e s e n c e i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e . Governments may, a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e , a c t u a l l y be doing t h e i r new e x p o r t e r s a d i s s e r v i c e by p u s h i n g them i n t o t h e m a r k e t p l a c e f o r one q u i c k t r i p , without p r o p e r l y s u p p o r t i n g them i n t h e i r a l l - i m p o r t a n t f o l l o w - u p v i s i t s . I t may be p r e f e r a b l e , t h e r e f o r e , not t o send them i n t o the m a r k e t p l a c e , a t a l l , i t h e commitment t o a s s i s t them on t h e i r f o l l o w - u p t r i p s i s not a l s o forthcoming. A c c o r d i n g t o t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y , a c o n t i n u i n g l o c a l presence i s p a r t i c u l a r l y c r u c i a l i n t h e c a s e of ASEAN. - 210 -With s p e c i f i c r e s p e c t t o Canadian or B r i t i s h Columbian e x p o r t e r s a t t e m p t i n g t o e s t a b l i s h a permanent l o c a l s a l e s o f f i c e abroad, t h e c u r r e n t l e v e l of f e d e r a l government support (funded under t h e Program f o r E x p o r t Market Development or PEMD) i s l i m i t e d t o 50% of t h e c o s t s of e s t a b l i s h i n g such an o f f i c e up t o a maximum of $ 1 2 5 , 0 0 0 over a two y e a r p e r i o d . I n a d d i t i o n , b e f o r e q u a l i f y i n g f o r s u p p o r t t h e f i r m must f i r s t demonstrate t h a t i t i s "export ready" (which i s d e f i n e d by f e d e r a l o f f i c i a l s a s h a v i n g a t l e a s t a two y e a r ' s s a l e s r e c o r d or a n n u a l s a l e s i n e x c e s s of $ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 ) and have a l r e a d y completed a s a l e i n t h e t a r g e t market. Whi le i t i s e n t i r e l y r e a s o n a b l e t o m a i n t a i n some s o r t of e l i g i b i l i t y c r i t e r i a f o r government s u p p o r t , t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h i s p a r t i c u l a r program seem u n n e c e s s a r i l y h a r s h i n l i g h t of t h e e x p e r i e n c e of B . C . e x p o r t e r s i n ASEAN. For one t h i n g , i t imposes a r a t h e r f o r m i d a b l e i n i t i a l e n t r y requirement on t h e a p p l i c a n t . I n order t o q u a l i f y f o r support and open an o f f i c e , t h e a p p l i c a n t must have a l r e a d y s o l d i n t o t h e market i n q u e s t i o n ( i n o t h e r words, support i s forthcoming o n l y a f t e r a s a l e has been made). There i s , however, a s t r o n g counter-argument t o be made, t h a t a l o c a l p r e s e n c e i s j u s t as important p r i o r t o t h e s a l e a c t u a l l y b e i n g c o n c l u d e d . C u r r e n t government support under t h i s program seems, t h e r e f o r e , t o be coming a f t e r t h e f a c t ( i . e . , a f t e r the market has a l r e a d y been e s t a b l i s h e d ) . - 211 -While t h i s i s c e r t a i n l y u s e f u l f o r t h e promotion of f o l l o w -up s a l e s , i t does a b s o l u t e l y n o t h i n g t o encourage i n i t i a l market p e n e t r a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s recommended t h a t t h e t h r e s h o l d f o r support under t h i s program be lowered. Furthermore, w h i l e t h e government s h o u l d r e t a i n i t s requirement f o r "export r e a d i n e s s " (or a t l e a s t i n s i s t upon t h e e x i s t e n c e of a w e l l a r t i c u l a t e d e x p o r t p l a n ) , i t s h o u l d e l i m i n a t e t h e requirement f o r p r e v i o u s s a l e s i n t h e t a r g e t market. F i n a l l y , i n l i g h t of t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y , which found t h a t 95% of t h e respondents were a b l e t o c o n c l u d e a s a l e w i t h i n 5 y e a r s of t h e i r i n i t i a l ASEAN i n q u i r y (and t h e b u l k of t h e s e w i t h i n 4 y e a r s ) , t h e government s h o u l d extend the p e r i o d of i n i t i a l support f o r l o c a l o f f i c e s from 2 t o 4 y e a r s . I f t h e a p p l i c a n t has not concluded a s a l e by t h a t t i m e , t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y would s u g g e s t t h a t i t i s extremely u n l i k e l y t o e v e r c o n c l u d e one i n t h a t p a r t i c u l a r market (with t h e p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n of some of t h e major e n g i n e e r i n g and c a p i t a l goods c o n t r a c t o r s who f a c e l e a d t imes which a r e o f t e n measured i n decades r a t h e r than y e a r s ) . As f a r as the v a r i o u s forms of ASEAN market e n t r y a r e concerned, t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s study a r e , w i t h a few n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n s , b r o a d l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d elsewhere i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e . For example, w h i l e t h e importance of such v e h i c l e s as "a planned i n t e r n a t i o n a l - 212 -e x p a n s i o n " , " f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l e x p o r t market development programmes", and " p e r s o n a l p r o s p e c t i n g i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e by s e n i o r e x e c u t i v e s of t h e f i r m " were a l l e x p e c t e d , t h e r e l a t i v e unimportance of t h e C a n a d i a n I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency (CIDA) as an i n i t i a l market e n t r y v e h i c l e , was n o t . I n f a c t , t h e A s i a n Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank (WB) proved t o be much more i m p o r t a n t v e h i c l e s f o r i n i t i a l market e n t r y i n t o ASEAN t h a n CIDA ( p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r t h e c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r i n g s e c t o r ) . I n l i g h t of t h i s f i n d i n g , i t i s recommended t h a t governments impress upon t h e i r e x p o r t e r s ( a t l e a s t t h o s e who a r e i n t e r e s t e d i n p u r s u i n g an i n t e r n a t i o n a l development agency c o n t r a c t ) t h e importance of r e g i s t e r i n g w i t h t h e s e a g e n c i e s . Furthermore, t h e y s h o u l d p o i n t out t h a t w h i l e r e g i s t r a t i o n i s a n e c e s s a r y p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r doing b u s i n e s s w i t h t h e s e a g e n c i e s , i t i s by no means a s u f f i c i e n t c o n d i t i o n i n and of i t s e l f . On t h e c o n t r a r y , t h e r e was widespread agreement among a l l t h e s u c c e s s f u l ADB/WB c o n t r a c t o r s i n t e r v i e w e d f o r t h i s s t u d y t h a t one must a l s o c u l t i v a t e a c l o s e working r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h key ADB/WB p e r s o n n e l i n t h o s e s e c t o r s and g e o g r a p h i c markets of i n t e r e s t t o o n e ' s f i r m . C u l t i v a t i n g such r e l a t i o n s h i p s , i n t u r n , e n t a i l s r e g u l a r and f r e q u e n t t r i p s t o Washington ( f o r the World Bank), t o M a n i l a ( f o r the A s i a n Development Bank) and, presumably, t o Ottawa ( f o r CIDA). The f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments s h o u l d , t h e r e f o r e , c o n s i d e r amending t h e i r c u r r e n t export market - 213 -development programs t o i n c l u d e support f o r r e g u l a r t r i p s t o t h e h e a d q u a r t e r s of a l l t h r e e i n t e r n a t i o n a l development a g e n c i e s - even i f no c u r r e n t p r o j e c t i s s p e c i f i c a l l y under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . I t i s a l s o worth n o t i n g t h a t , i n no c a s e , d i d any of t h e s u c c e s s f u l ADB/WB c o n t r a c t o r s i n t e r v i e w e d f o r t h i s s t u d y win a c o n t r a c t by s i m p l y m o n i t o r i n g or b i d d i n g on p r o j e c t s h i g h l i g h t e d i n t h e ADB or WB o p e r a t i o n a l summaries or p u b l i c c a l l s f o r t e n d e r . On the c o n t r a r y , t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y were of t h e o p i n i o n t h a t t h e s h o r t l i s t s f o r t h e s e c o n t r a c t s were determined w e l l i n advance of t h e p u b l i c c a l l f o r t e n d e r s . T h i s p o s s i b i l i t y c a s t s s e r i o u s doubts upon t h e v a l i d i t y of c u r r e n t f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l i n i t i a t i v e s t o p r o v i d e o n - l i n e a c c e s s t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l development agency t e n d e r l i s t i n g s . I f t h e e x p e r i e n c e s of t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y a r e any i n d i c a t o r , t h e t r u l y s u c c e s s f u l ADB/WB c o n t r a c t o r s w i l l have a l r e a d y l e a r n e d of t h e s e o p p o r t u n i t i e s through t h e i r network of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s i n t h e ADB/WB, w e l l i n advance of t h e p u b l i c t e n d e r n o t i c e . The l a r g e sums of p u b l i c monies now being poured i n t o o n - l i n e t e n d e r d a t a -b a s e s a r e , t h e r e f o r e , l a r g e l y going t o waste. As a lways , one of the more d i f f i c u l t q u e s t i o n s f o r governments t o address under t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , i s how o f t e n support should be g i v e n and t o whom? As a s t a r t , i t - 214 -i s recommended t h a t s u c c e s s f u l a p p l i c a n t s be e n t i t l e d t o one t r i p p e r y e a r t o each of t h e major i n t e r n a t i o n a l development a g e n c i e s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e i r g e o g r a p h i c a r e a of i n t e r e s t ( i n t h e c a s e of ASEAN, f o r example, t h i s would i n c l u d e t h e ADB, t h e WB and C I D A ) . T h i s support s h o u l d be made a v a i l a b l e over and above t h e r e g u l a r one v i s i t / one company PEMD-type support c u r r e n t l y o f f e r e d . I n a d d i t i o n , such s u p p o r t s h o u l d be made c o n t i n g e n t upon t h e a p p l i c a n t b e i n g " e x p o r t - r e a d y " (as p r e s e n t l y d e f i n e d by t h e f e d e r a l government) and h a v i n g c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i e d t h e key i n t e r n a t i o n a l development agency p e r s o n n e l r e s p o n s i b l e f o r h i s or h e r p r o d u c t a n d / o r market of i n t e r e s t . Not expected i n t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y was t h e s u r p r i s i n g l y h i g h i n c i d e n c e among B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s of t h e "piggyback" or " b i g b r o t h e r " method of e n t r y i n t o the ASEAN market. I n a l l such c a s e s , the B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r , i n q u e s t i o n , a c t e d as a s u b c o n t r a c t o r or s u p p l i e r t o a l a r g e r Canadian or American m u l t i n a t i o n a l . To d a t e , t h e o n l y o t h e r rev iews of Canadian p i g g y b a c k e n t r i e s i n t o ASEAN r e l a t e t o j o i n t v e n t u r e - s t y l e arrangements between Canadian p r o d u c e r s of c o a l and o i l - f i r e d power g e n e r a t i n g equipment and s e v e r a l major Japanese t r a d i n g companies working t o g e t h e r i n I n d o n e s i a . 1 6 0 The predominance of t h i s type of market e n t r y v e h i c l e i n ASEAN r e i n f o r c e s two v e r y important themes which emerged throughout t h e i n t e r v i e w s - 215 -conducted f o r t h i s s t u d y . One, i t i s i m p e r a t i v e t h a t B r i t i s h Columbia f i r m s e s t a b l i s h a s i g n i f i c a n t market p o s i t i o n or r e p u t a t i o n i n North America p r i o r t o v e n t u r i n g o f f s h o r e . Two, B . C . f i r m s s h o u l d t a k e f u l l advantage of t h e r e c e n t l y c o n c l u d e d f r e e t r a d e agreement w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o f o r g e s t r a t e g i c p i g g y b a c k a l l i a n c e s w i t h l a r g e r f i r m s (to a c h i e v e both a g r e a t e r l e v e l of p e n e t r a t i o n i n t h e North American market and t o a l l o w e n t r y i n t o whatever o f f s h o r e markets t h e l a r g e r a l l i e d f i r m s d e c i d e t o e n t e r ) . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s recommended t h a t both l e v e l s of government o f f e r t h e i r e x p o r t e r s e v e r y inducement p o s s i b l e t o persuade them t o t a k e f u l l advantage of t h e r e c e n t l i b e r a l i z a t i o n of North American t r a d e a r i s i n g out of t h e C a n a d a - U . S . F r e e Trade Agreement. I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e y s h o u l d encourage B . C . e x p o r t e r s (and p o t e n t i a l e x p o r t e r s ) t o b e g i n moving i n t o t h e a d j a c e n t r e g i o n a l markets i n t h e Northwestern and Western U n i t e d S t a t e s . Not o n l y w i l l t h i s h e l p B . C . e x p o r t e r s t o e s t a b l i s h a broader r e g i o n a l r e p u t a t i o n , but i t w i l l a l s o f a c i l i t a t e t h e p o t e n t i a l l y much more important p r o c e s s of i n t r o d u c i n g them t o l a r g e r and more i n t e r n a t i o n a l i z e d U . S . f i r m s . To some e x t e n t , t h e f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments have a l r e a d y r e c o g n i z e d the importance of t h e s e s t e p s w i t h t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of t h e i r New E x p o r t e r s t o Border S t a t e s (NEBs) program. What i s needed, however, i s a f o l l o w - u p e f f o r t t o make e x p l i c i t t h e b e n e f i t s of l i n k i n g up - 216 -w i t h l a r g e r U . S . f i r m s . F i r m s , t o which t h e B . C . e x p o r t e r s can a l l y t h e m s e l v e s as s u b c o n t r a c t o r s and s u p p l i e r s i n both t h e North American market and abroad. One of t h e f i n d i n g s of t h i s s t u d y which was e x p e c t e d was t h e i m p o r t a n t r o l e p l a y e d by p r e v i o u s customers i n s u p p l y i n g l e a d s and i n f o r m a t i o n on new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. A f t e r a l l , former customers a r e not o n l y a v a l u a b l e s o u r c e of r e p e a t b u s i n e s s i n t h e m s e l v e s , but t h e i r s a t i s f i e d recommendations and word-of-mouth r e f e r r a l s can a l s o p r o v i d e a s t e a d y stream of new customers as w e l l . Of t h e 2 1 f i r m s i n t e r v i e w e d f o r t h i s s t u d y , and asked t o i d e n t i f y t h e s o u r c e of t h e i r most r e c e n t ASEAN i n v o l v e m e n t , t h r e e r e p o r t e d r e p e a t s a l e s t o t h e i r o r i g i n a l ASEAN customer, t h r e e r e p o r t e d s a l e s t o a new ASEAN customer based on t h e performance or r e p u t a t i o n e s t a b l i s h e d on t h e i r f i r s t ASEAN s a l e , and two r e p o r t e d s a l e s t o a customer t h e y had o r i g i n a l l y d e a l t w i t h o u t s i d e of ASEAN, but who was now l o o k i n g t o p u r c h a s e the same product or s e r v i c e i n s i d e ASEAN. By and l a r g e , t h e importance a s s i g n e d t o former customers as s o u r c e s of f u t u r e s a l e s l e a d s by t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y was c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d elsewhere i n the l i t e r a t u r e . With r e s p e c t t o p o s s i b l e changes i n t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n u t i l i z e d by B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s between - 217 -t h e i r f i r s t involvement i n t h e ASEAN market and t h e i r most r e c e n t , t h i s s t u d y found v e r y l i t t l e e v i d e n c e of any s i g n i f i c a n t s h i f t i n s o u r c e s even over a p e r i o d of t i m e which, on a v e r a g e , amounted t o 1 0 - 1 5 y e a r s . The b e s t s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n , i n both t h e r e s p o n d e n t s ' i n i t i a l and most r e c e n t ASEAN s a l e s , were " p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s " and " l o c a l s o u r c e s i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e " . There was, however, some s h i f t away from t h e u s e of p e r s o n a l c o n t a c t s e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e f i r m ' s c h i e f e x e c u t i v e o f f i c e r w h i l e on a p r e l i m i n a r y swing through t h e market and towards t h e use of c o n t a c t s e s t a b l i s h e d by t h e f i r m ' s l o c a l man i n t h e market. There was a l s o a growing t r e n d towards the use of i n d i g e n o u s or "bumiputra" r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s i n t h e ASEAN r e g i o n and away from t h e use of e x p a t r i a t e s or C h i n e s e middlemen. T h i s t r e n d was perhaps most pronounced i n I n d o n e s i a and M a l a y s i a , and l e a s t pronounced i n T h a i l a n d and S ingapore (perhaps r e f l e c t i n g , on t h e one hand, t h e g r e a t e r a s s i m i l a t i o n of the C h i n e s e i n t o T h a i s o c i e t y and, on t h e o t h e r , t h e overwhelmingly C h i n e s e n a t u r e of S i n g a p o r e ) . I n a l l c a s e s , however, p e r s o n a l s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n were p r e f e r r e d t o n o n - p e r s o n a l or documentary s o u r c e s . S i m i l a r l y , the s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n i d e n t i f i e d as b e i n g important d i d not v a r y s i g n i f i c a n t l y by c o u n t r y or by s e c t o r . Respondents a c t i v e i n a l l 6 ASEAN markets i n d i c a t e d a c l e a r p r e f e r e n c e f o r p e r s o n a l over n o n - p e r s o n a l or - 218 -documentary s o u r c e s . With r e s p e c t t o s p e c i f i c s e c t o r s , t h e c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r s p l a c e d perhaps t h e g r e a t e s t emphasis on t h e c u l t i v a t i o n of r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l development agency p e r s o n n e l . Even t h e y a d m i t t e d , however, t h a t w i t h t h e r e c e n t s h i f t i n many development a g e n c i e s away from l a r g e s c a l e c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e p r o j e c t s towards more human c a p i t a l - o r i e n t e d p r o j e c t s , t h e y too were going t o have t o s h i f t t h e i r f o c u s t o o t h e r s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n and f u n d i n g . At t h e p r e s e n t t i m e , t h e c o n s u l t i n g e n g i n e e r s seem t o be f o c u s s i n g t h e i r a t t e n t i o n s i n ASEAN on s t a t e and p a r a - s t a t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s as w e l l as on key p r i v a t e s e c t o r e n t i t i e s . There a l s o d i d not seem t o be any r e a d i l y o b s e r v a b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e age of t h e f i r m s i n t e r v i e w e d and t h e s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n used or the form of l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n employed. Many f i r m s f e l t t h a t t h e y had h i t upon a f a i r l y s u c c e s s f u l formula e a r l y on, w h i l e o t h e r s ( i n c l u d i n g many o l d e r e s t a b l i s h e d f i r m s ) found t h e m s e l v e s c a s t i n g about r e p e a t e d l y b e f o r e f i n a l l y s e t t l i n g upon t h e r i g h t s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n and l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . Some f i r m s had even gone f u l l c i r c l e i n t h e i r ASEAN r e p r e s e n t a t i o n - i n i t i a l l y s e r v i n g t h e market v i a e x p o r t s , then a p p o i n t i n g a l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e , t h e n making a d i r e c t investment i n t h e market, b e f o r e e v e n t u a l l y withdrawing from t h e market and r e t u r n i n g t o s e r v e i t v i a e x p o r t s o n l y . - 219 -P a r t i c u l a r l y noteworthy, were t h e f a i l u r e s of two f a i r l y h i g h - p r o f i l e B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t c o n s o r t i a formed t o p e n e t r a t e t h e ASEAN market, both of which c o n t a i n e d l o n g -e s t a b l i s h e d B . C . e x p o r t e r s . I n c o n t r a s t w i t h some of t h e o t h e r s t u d i e s r e p o r t e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , t h i s s t u d y d i d not f i n d much importance b e i n g a t t a c h e d t o b a n k e r s , c o n s u l t a n t s , b r o k e r s , l a w y e r s or government o f f i c i a l s as s o u r c e s of p o t e n t i a l l y u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n on new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. I n f a c t , o n l y one respondent r e p o r t e d r e c e i v i n g an i m p o r t a n t ASEAN b u s i n e s s l e a d from i t s banker and o n l y one respondent a t t r i b u t e d t h e s o u r c e of i t s i n i t i a l ASEAN s a l e t o a government o f f i c i a l ( i n t h a t p a r t i c u l a r c a s e , a f e d e r a l t r a d e commissioner s t a t i o n e d o v e r s e a s ) . Canadian government t r a d e o f f i c i a l s posted o v e r s e a s were found t o be q u i t e u s e f u l i n making i n t r o d u c t i o n s and appointments i n t h e l o c a l m a r k e t p l a c e . I n most c a s e s , however, t h e i n d i v i d u a l s t o whom t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n s were sought had t o be i d e n t i f i e d , i n advance, by t h e Canadian e x p o r t e r . The t r a d e commissioner, i n e f f e c t , o n l y a c t e d as a f a c i l i t a t o r and door opener i n t h e l o c a l market. P r o v i n c i a l t r a d e o f f i c i a l s , on the o t h e r hand, d i d not r e c e i v e a p a r t i c u l a r l y h i g h r a n k i n g , i n t h i s s t u d y , as - 220 -s o u r c e s of u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n . I n f a c t , t h e y were g e n e r a l l y r a t e d lower t h a n t h e i r f e d e r a l c o u n t e r p a r t s . I n some r e s p e c t s , t h i s i s perhaps an u n f a i r comparison, s i n c e B r i t i s h Columbia d i d not have a r e s i d e n t t r a d e commissioner i n t h e ASEAN r e g i o n a t t h e t ime t h e i n t e r v i e w s f o r t h i s s t u d y were conducted. But even i f t h e p r o v i n c e had been r e p r e s e n t e d i n ASEAN, t h e r e remains t h e l a r g e r q u e s t i o n of whether or not o v e r s e a s t r a d e commissioners can r e a s o n a b l y be expected t o d e l i v e r t h e k i n d of m i c r o , f i r m - l e v e l o p p o r t u n i t y i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t appears t o be needed. A f t e r a l l , t h e y a r e u s u a l l y r e s i d e n t i n t h e c o u n t r y f o r o n l y a s h o r t p e r i o d of t i m e , l a b o u r i n g under a v a r i e t y of c o n f l i c t i n g mandates ( t r a d e , t o u r i s m , i n v e s t m e n t , e t c . ) . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e y a r e burdened w i t h a h o s t of o f f i c i a l d u t i e s as w e l l . The p r o v i n c i a l government s h o u l d , t h e r e f o r e , s e r i o u s l y r e - e x a m i n e t h e mandate i t a s s i g n s i t s o v e r s e a s o f f i c e r s . Can t h e y r e a l l y be expected t o p r o v i d e t h e k i n d of t r a d e a s s i s t a n c e t h e y a r e now being a d v e r t i s e d a s c a p a b l e of d e l i v e r i n g ? Can t h e y p h y s i c a l l y keep up w i t h t h e growing volume of demands l i k e l y t o be p l a c e d on them i f t h e p r o v i n c e ' s export promotion e f f o r t s a c t u a l l y b e g i n t o t a k e h o l d ? The e x p e r i e n c e of t h e f e d e r a l t r a d e commissioner s e r v i c e would suggest n o t . The p r o v i n c i a l government s h o u l d , t h e r e f o r e , c o n s i d e r c o n t r a c t i n g out l o c a l l y t h e k i n d of f i r m - l e v e l market s u p p o r t , i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g and export a s s i s t a n c e t h a t i s a c t u a l l y needed. I t would be - 221 -p r e f e r a b l e i f such c o n t r a c t s were l e t t o l o c a l l y engaged n a t i o n a l s w i t h d i r e c t ASEAN market e x p e r i e n c e i n t h e s e c t o r s of i n t e r e s t . S i m i l a r l y , i n l i g h t of t h e f i n d i n g s of t h i s s t u d y , t h e f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments s h o u l d r e - e x a m i n e t h a t p o r t i o n of t h e i r p r o m o t i o n a l budgets which t h e y a l l o c a t e t o t r a d e f a i r s and t r a d e m i s s i o n s . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , t h e r e s p o n d e n t s i n t h i s s t u d y h e l d a lower o p i n i o n of t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s of t r a d e m i s s i o n s a s opposed t o t r a d e f a i r s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e y h e l d a c o n s i d e r a b l y lower o p i n i o n of p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e m i s s i o n s as opposed t o f e d e r a l t r a d e m i s s i o n s . The c o m p l a i n t most o f t e n l e v e l e d , a g a i n s t p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e m i s s i o n s was t h a t t h e y were d r i v e n by an agenda o t h e r t h a n t h e needs of t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r p a r t i c i p a n t s ( f o r example, a M i n i s t e r ' s need t o be seen a s a c t i v e i n a p a r t i c u l a r a r e a or a S e c t o r O f f i c e r ' s d e s i r e t o v i s i t a p a r t i c u l a r market d u r i n g a c e r t a i n t ime of y e a r ) . As a r e s u l t , s e v e r a l respondents accused t h e p r o v i n c i a l government of b e i n g more concerned w i t h f i l l i n g up s p a c e s on i t s t r a d e m i s s i o n t h a n w i t h t h e a c t u a l need f o r t h e m i s s i o n i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . I n a d d i t i o n , p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e m i s s i o n s were o f t e n c h a r a c t e r i z e d as being l e s s generous i n t h e i r f i n a n c i a l support than t h e i r f e d e r a l c o u n t e r p a r t s . Trade f a i r s , by comparison, were f a i r l y w i d e l y supported by t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y , r e g a r d l e s s of t h e i r f u n d i n g . As - 222 -mentioned e a r l i e r , t h i s support was p r i m a r i l y due t o u s e f u l n e s s of t h e c o n t a c t s made a t such t r a d e forums. A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e p r o v i n c i a l government s h o u l d r e - e x a m i n e i t s f u n d i n g s p l i t between t r a d e f a i r s and t r a d e m i s s i o n s a s w e l l a s more c a r e f u l l y examining i t s r e a s o n s f o r i n i t i a t i n g t h o s e t r a d e m i s s i o n s i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . C o n t r a r y t o e x p e c t a t i o n s , s u c c e s s f u l B . C . e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN do not spend a g r e a t d e a l of t ime s c a n n i n g p r i n t e d or documentary s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n l o o k i n g f o r new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . I n f a c t , 5 7 . 1 % of t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y s a i d t h a t p r i n t e d s o u r c e s , i n g e n e r a l , were of v e r y l i t t l e h e l p and were u s u a l l y o n l y used t o supplement i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e d e lsewhere. Nor d i d t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y make much use of e l e c t r o n i c d a t a b a s e s t o uncover p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN. Only one respondent r e p o r t e d u s i n g any k i n d of e l e c t r o n i c i n f o r m a t i o n system t o t r a c k o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n i t s o v e r s e a s m a r k e t s . Even i n t h i s c a s e , however, t h e a c t u a l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of p o s s i b l e b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s was d e l e g a t e d t o t h e c h i e f e x e c u t i v e o f f i c e r of t h e ASEAN s u b s i d i a r y . The l a r g e r c o r p o r a t e d a t a b a s e / i n f o r m a t i o n system was used o n l y t o keep head o f f i c e a d v i s e d of developments i n i t s f a r - f l u n g o v e r s e a s o p e r a t i o n s - not t o uncover o p p o r t u n i t i e s by i t s e l f . The o n l y o t h e r use of an e l e c t r o n i c database r e p o r t e d by t h e respondents i n t h i s study i n v o l v e d an i n - h o u s e l i t e r a t u r e - 223 -and media a b s t r a c t i n g s e r v i c e (not a b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s e r v i c e ) . Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , both of t h e s e examples i n v o l v e d l a r g e m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s ( i n f a c t , t h e y were among t h e l a r g e s t f i r m s i n t h e s t u d y ) . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , t h e r e were t h r e e major r e a s o n s , c i t e d by t h e r e s p o n d e n t s , f o r not u s i n g p r i n t e d or e l e c t r o n i c s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n : o t h e r e i s s i m p l y not enough t ime t o s c a n and d i g e s t t h e v a s t o u t p o u r i n g of p r i n t e d and e l e c t r o n i c m a t e r i a l now a v a i l a b l e ; o p r i n t e d m a t e r i a l i s r a r e l y t i m e l y . U s u a l l y , by t h e t i m e t h e s t o r y appears i n p r i n t , t h e window of o p p o r t u n i t y has long s i n c e c l o s e d ; and o most i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n t r a c t s ( a t l e a s t t h o s e a v a i l a b l e i n ASEAN) a r e s i m p l y not l e t i n the anonymous, arms-l e n g t h manner i m p l i e d by the s i m p l e p u r s u i t of p r i n t e d or e l e c t r o n i c l e a d s . P u r c h a s e r s i n ASEAN p r e f e r t o d e a l w i t h s u p p l i e r s known t o them. T h e r e f o r e , even i f an o p p o r t u n i t y i s uncovered v i a an e l e c t r o n i c d a t a b a s e i t s t i l l r e q u i r e s a f a c e - t o - f a c e meeting w i t h t h e c l i e n t i n order t o b u i l d some k i n d of p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p p r i o r t o c o n c l u d i n g t h e s a l e . - 224 -The i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s , f o r c u r r e n t f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e promotion i n i t i a t i v e s , a r e q u i t e f a r -r e a c h i n g . Both l e v e l s of government a r e a c t i v e l y promoting a c c e s s t o a v a r i e t y of o n - l i n e i n t e r n a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t y d a t a b a s e s . The v i s i o n b e i n g marketed i s t h a t of a s m a l l t o m e d i u m - s i z e d Canadian manufacturer b e i n g a b l e t o c a l l up, v i a modem and p e r s o n a l computer, i n f o r m a t i o n on a wide v a r i e t y of i n t e r n a t i o n a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , a t l e a s t as f a r as ASEAN i s concerned, t h i s v i s i o n b e t r a y s a fundamental m i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g of how t h e p r o c e s s a c t u a l l y works. Based on t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s s u r v e y of s u c c e s s f u l B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN, one would have t o c o n c l u d e t h a t such an " a r m - c h a i r " i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of o v e r s e a s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s bound t o f a i l . The o n l y s a v i n g g r a c e of such an i n i t i a t i v e may l i e i n i t s o n - l i n e c o n n e c t i o n t o t h e World B a n k ' s o p e r a t i o n a l summaries and t e n d e r c a l l s . Through t h i s c o n n e c t i o n , Canadian e x p o r t e r s may become aware, i n a s l i g h t l y more t i m e l y manner, of the k i n d s of o p p o r t u n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e w i t h t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l development a g e n c i e s . However, as we have seen, s i m p l e a c c e s s t o i n f o r m a t i o n about such p r o j e c t s w i l l n o t , i n i t s e l f , l e a d t o an export s a l e . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s recommended t h a t the f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments t a k e a s e r i o u s look a t the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of t h e i r h e a v i l y promoted i n t e r n a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t y d a t a b a s e s . I n - 225 -p a r t i c u l a r , t h e y s h o u l d t a k e a h a r d l o o k a t t h e f i n a n c i a l o u t l a y s t h e y have made on t h e s e systems v e r s u s t h e a c t u a l documented e x p o r t s u c c e s s e s which have r e s u l t e d . I f , a s i s s u s p e c t e d , t h e r e s u l t s of t h a t e x a m i n a t i o n a r e l e s s t h a n overwhelming, t h e y would be w e l l a d v i s e d t o r e c h a n n e l some ( i f not a l l ) of t h e funds t h e y a r e c u r r e n t l y expending on e l e c t r o n i c d a t a b a s e s i n t o i n c r e a s e d support f o r p e r s o n a l v i s i t s t o t h e m a r k e t p l a c e and t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l development banks and a g e n c i e s , as suggested e a r l i e r . By e x t e n s i o n , t h e r e s u l t s of t h i s s u r v e y a l s o s u g g e s t t h a t , c o n t r a r y t o our e a r l i e r e x p e c t a t i o n s , neophyte e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN cannot hope t o s i m p l y monitor and mimic what s u c c e s s f u l e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN a r e r e a d i n g and, t h e r e b y , uncover new b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t h e m s e l v e s . On t h e c o n t r a r y , t h e r e i s no s i n g l e s o u r c e of p r i n t e d or documentary e n l i g h t e n m e n t . Even a r e l i g i o u s r e a d i n g of t h e F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, Asiaweek, t h e Economist and t h e A s i a n W a l l S t r e e t J o u r n a l , (whi le c o n s i d e r a b l y e l e v a t i n g o n e ' s g e n e r a l knowledge of ASEAN), w i l l not l e a d t o t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n any s p e c i f i c b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t y i n ASEAN. I n f a c t , t h e o n l y c o n s i s t e n t l y c o n s u l t e d s o u r c e a c r o s s a l l s e c t o r s i n t h i s s t u d y was a r e g u l a r m o n i t o r i n g of t h e t r a d e magazines p e c u l i a r t o t h a t s e c t o r . However, no respondent c o u l d r e c a l l h a v i n g uncovered a s p e c i f i c ASEAN b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t y t h a t way. - 226 -As e x p e c t e d , ASEAN was of m a r g i n a l importance t o most of t h e companies i n t e r v i e w e d i n t h i s s u r v e y . Even f o r B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s most s u c c e s s f u l e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN, t h e r e g i o n n e v e r accounted f o r more t h a n 50% of t o t a l c o r p o r a t e s a l e s ( i n f a c t , f o r 7 6% of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s , s a l e s t o ASEAN accounted f o r l e s s t h a n 25% of t h e i r t o t a l a n n u a l s a l e s ) . F o r over 90% of t h e r e s p o n d e n t s , ASEAN c l e a r l y ranked a s l e s s important t h a n North America. The b u l k of t h e s e f i r m s , however, d i d rank ASEAN as more important t h a n A f r i c a , E a s t e r n Europe and North A s i a . On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e respondents were f a i r l y e v e n l y d i v i d e d on t h e r e l a t i v e importance of ASEAN as compared t o L a t i n America, Western Europe, A u s t r a l i a and New Z e a l a n d . These f i n d i n g s suggest t h a t f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e o f f i c i a l s s h o u l d not p l a c e too g r e a t an emphasis on ASEAN as a market f o r Canadian goods. Whi le ASEAN remains an e x c e l l e n t market f o r some Canadian e x p o r t s , t h i s demand i s not b r o a d l y based and the market f o r t h o s e p r o d u c t s which a r e i n demand remains h i g h l y c o m p e t i t i v e . The b u l k of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ' s t r a d e w i t h ASEAN i s c o m m o d i t y - r e l a t e d and l o o k s t o remain t h a t way f o r some t ime t o come. I n a d d i t i o n , many of the l a r g e r - s c a l e , c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e , ASEAN i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l development p r o j e c t s t h a t B . C . f i r m s have so s u c c e s s f u l l y p a r t i c i p a t e d i n , i n t h e p a s t , have now been - 227 -r e s c h e d u l e d or c a n c e l l e d o u t r i g h t due t o f i n a n c i n g d i f f i c u l t i e s . ASEAN, t h e r e f o r e , s h o u l d not be t h e f i r s t or o n l y f o c u s of any B . C . e x p o r t e r . A more s u s t a i n a b l e approach t o ASEAN would i n v o l v e e x p o r t i n g t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s (and o t h e r r e g i o n s of Canada) f i r s t , b e f o r e v e n t u r i n g o f f s h o r e t o t h e ASEAN market. There may, i n f a c t , be some s o r t of i m p l i c i t minimum s i z e t h r e s h o l d t h a t f i r m s must a c h i e v e b e f o r e a t t e m p t i n g t o p e n e t r a t e t h e ASEAN market . W h i l e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y ranged i n s i z e from l e s s t h a n $ 1 m i l l i o n i n annual revenues t o over $5 b i l l i o n and from l e s s t h a n 6 employees t o over 5 , 0 0 0 , t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e respondents c o u l d more p r o p e r l y be d e f i n e d as "mid-s i z e d " . G i v e n t h e expenses a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e f r e q u e n t and, o f t e n t i m e s , o b l i g a t o r y t r i p s t h a t a r e r e q u i r e d t o break i n t o t h e ASEAN market, any f i r m w i t h l e s s t h a n $ 1 m i l l i o n i n annual revenues may f i n d i t d i f f i c u l t t o s u s t a i n a c o n c e r t e d ASEAN market p e n e t r a t i o n e f f o r t . A f t e r a l l , a v e r y modest one man ASEAN r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f f i c e can c o s t as much as $ 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 a y e a r t o m a i n t a i n ( p a r t i c u l a r l y i f an e x p a t r i a t e North American s t a f f member i s r e t a i n e d ) . There a r e c e r t a i n l y e a s i e r and l e s s e x p e n s i v e markets t o p e n e t r a t e t h a n ASEAN, many of them c l o s e r t o home. G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , t h e r e f o r e , new B . C . e x p o r t e r s would be w e l l a d v i s e d t o b u i l d up t h e i r i n t e r n a l f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s f i r s t b e f o r e t a c k l i n g a more remote market l i k e ASEAN. The q u i c k e s t way t o b u i l d up t h o s e i n t e r n a l r e s e r v e s i s p r o b a b l y - 228 -by e x p o r t i n g t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . L i k e a l l g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s , however, t h i s one i s c e r t a i n l y s u b j e c t t o e x c e p t i o n s . There a r e c l e a r l y going t o be o p p o r t u n i t i e s which w i l l a l l o w i n d i v i d u a l f i r m s t o l e a p - f r o g t h e k i n d of slow i n c r e m e n t a l export growth we have been o u t l i n i n g h e r e . The e v i d e n c e from our s t u d y , however, i s t h a t s u c h o p p o r t u n i t i e s a r e r e l a t i v e l y r a r e and most s u c c e s s f u l B r i t i s h Columbia e x p o r t e r s t o ASEAN have e s t a b l i s h e d t h e i r p r o d u c t and r e p u t a t i o n i n t h e North American market f i r s t , b e f o r e moving i n t o the ASEAN m a r k e t p l a c e . Perhaps one of t h e g r e a t e s t d i f f i c u l t i e s i n p e n e t r a t i n g t h e ASEAN market, a t l e a s t as f a r as t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y were concerned, i s f i n d i n g a s u i t a b l e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . As many of t h e respondents p o i n t e d o u t , i t i s not so much a s h o r t a g e of p o s s i b l e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t h a t i s t h e problem, r a t h e r i t i s t h e l a c k of s o l i d i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e c r e d e n t i a l s and r e l i a b i l i t y of t h e s e p o t e n t i a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t h a t i s of the g r e a t e s t c o n c e r n . What i s needed, t h e r e f o r e , i s s p e c i f i c i n f o r m a t i o n as t o who t h e s e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s a r e , who t h e y c u r r e n t l y r e p r e s e n t , who t h e i r c o n t a c t s a r e , and what t h e i r f i n a n c i a l c a p a b i l i t i e s a r e . At t h e p r e s e n t t i m e , such i n f o r m a t i o n , i f i t e x i s t s a t a l l , i s s c a t t e r e d amongst a wide v a r i e t y of s o u r c e s i n t h e l o c a l - 229 -m a r k e t p l a c e . The p r o c e s s of u n c o v e r i n g t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s a lmost a s l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e and t ime-consuming a s t h e a c t u a l p r o s p e c t i n g f o r l o c a l s a l e s l e a d s . The i r o n y of t h e s i t u a t i o n i s t h a t a good l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e w i l l a l l e v i a t e t h e need f o r t h a t i n t e r m i n a b l e l e g work i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e . I n some c a s e s , i n f o r m a t i o n on p o s s i b l e l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s i s a v a i l a b l e i n t h e p e r s o n a l f i l e s of t h e l o c a l C a n a d i a n t r a d e commissioner. However, t h e l e v e l of d e t a i l and t h e w i l l i n g n e s s t o s h a r e t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n v a r i e s g r e a t l y depending upon t h e i n d i v i d u a l and t h e c o u n t r y i n v o l v e d . To f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e m a t t e r s , t h e f e d e r a l government's p o l i c y of r o t a t i n g Canadian t r a d e commissioners e v e r y two t o t h r e e y e a r s f u r t h e r d i s r u p t s t h e g a t h e r i n g and d i s s e m i n a t i o n of t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n . P r i m a r i l y , because i t i s o n l y i n t h e second or t h i r d y e a r of t h e i r p o s t i n g t h a t t h e t r a d e commissioners r e a l l y get t o know t h e i r market and t h e key p a r t i c i p a n t s i n i t . I n v a r i a b l y , j u s t as t h e i r u s e f u l n e s s and market knowledge a r e n e a r i n g t h e i r peak, t h e y a r e r o t a t e d out of the c o u n t r y . U n t i l v e r y r e c e n t l y , t h e r e was no way of i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z i n g t h i s k i n d of knowledge about l o c a l c o n t a c t s and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t o ensure t h a t i t s u r v i v e d t h e d e p a r t u r e of any one i n d i v i d u a l t r a d e commissioner. Over the l a s t few y e a r s , however, t h e f e d e r a l government has committed m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s t o b u i l d i n g a m a s s i v e WIN EXPORTS database - one s u b f i l e of which c o n t a i n s - 230 -t h e i n d i v i d u a l t r a d e p o s t ' s l i s t of l o c a l c o n t a c t s and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . At t h i s p o i n t , however, t h e WIN EXPORTS d a t a b a s e i s not open t o the g e n e r a l p u b l i c and can o n l y be a c c e s s e d by a f e d e r a l or p r o v i n c i a l t r a d e o f f i c i a l . Even t h e n , i t i s not a t a l l c l e a r whether t h e most u s e f u l component of t h e d a t a b a s e - t h e l o c a l c o n t a c t s f i l e , w i l l be made a v a i l a b l e t o anyone o t h e r t h a n a f e d e r a l t r a d e o f f i c i a l . The r e a s o n o s t e n s i b l y o f f e r e d f o r t h i s s e l e c t i v i t y i s t h a t t h e o v e r s e a s p o s t s do not w i s h t o see t h e i r l o c a l c o n t a c t s inundated by a wave of d i r e c t i n q u i r i e s from p o t e n t i a l Canadian e x p o r t e r s . A v a l i d c o n c e r n p e r h a p s , b u t one which, w i t h a b i t of j u d i c i o u s s c r e e n i n g of p o t e n t i a l e x p o r t e r s , c o u l d p r o b a b l y be overcome. T h e r e f o r e , i t i s recommended t h a t t h e f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments reexamine the f o c u s of t h e i r emphasis on t h e WIN EXPORTS d a t a b a s e , i n p a r t i c u l a r , on t h e i r b u i l d i n g of m a s s i v e s e c t o r f i l e s on p o t e n t i a l Canadian e x p o r t e r s . A r e d i r e c t i o n of emphasis and funding towards t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t and d i s s e m i n a t i o n of d e t a i l e d l o c a l c o n t a c t and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e f i l e s would be v a s t l y p r e f e r a b l e s i n c e i t i s p r e c i s e l y i n t h e a r e a of l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n t h a t t h e respondents i n t h i s study i d e n t i f i e d t h e g r e a t e s t need. C l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h i s problem, i s the l a r g e r q u e s t i o n of t h e need f o r a s h i f t i n government t h i n k i n g beyond the s i m p l e e x p o r t - o n l y m e n t a l i t y which c u r r e n t l y p r e v a i l s . More - 231 -and more f r e q u e n t l y , Canadian e x p o r t e r s a r e d i s c o v e r i n g t h a t , i n some markets (ASEAN i n c l u d e d ) , t h e most a p p r o p r i a t e form of l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s , i n f a c t , a j o i n t v e n t u r e or f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t . At t h e p r e s e n t t i m e , w i t h t h e n o t a b l e e x c e p t i o n of a few CIDA programmes which e x p l i c i t l y promote t h e f o r m a t i o n of j o i n t v e n t u r e s and t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r s , t h e r e i s a n o t a b l e p a u c i t y of f e d e r a l or p r o v i n c i a l support f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of o v e r s e a s d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t s . I n a l l p r o b a b i l i t y , t h i s absence of s u p p o r t can be t r a c e d t o t h e d i f f i c u l t p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n t h a t the p r o v i s i o n of such support would put the government i n . To t h e layman, any such support would appear t o be b e n e f i t t i n g f o r e i g n governments and workers a t t h e expense of C a n a d i a n employees. Furthermore, t h e output of t h e s e o f f i c i a l l y supported f o r e i g n d i r e c t investments c o u l d f i n d i t s way back i n t o t h e Canadian market d i s p l a c i n g Canadian j o b s and p r o d u c t i o n . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h i s r a t h e r s i m p l e - m i n d e d a l g e b r a , w h i l e i n t u i t i v e l y a p p e a l i n g , i g n o r e s t h e r a t h e r c o n s i d e r a b l e b e n e f i t s which a c c r u e t o t h e home or s o u r c e c o u n t r y from f o r e i g n d i r e c t investment f l o w s . 1 6 1 Not o n l y i s t h e r e u s u a l l y a s i g n i f i c a n t flow of raw m a t e r i a l s , p a r t s and components from the home c o u n t r y t o t h e new o f f s h o r e i n v e s t m e n t , but t h e r e i s a l s o the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r t h e t r a n s f e r of t e c h n o l o g y (from p a r e n t t o s u b s i d i a r y and v i c e v e r s a ) , t h e r e c e i p t of r o y a l t y and l i c e n s i n g f e e s , t h e p r o v i s i o n of c o n s u l t i n g s e r v i c e s and a whole h o s t of o t h e r - 232 -v a l u e - a d d e d human c a p i t a l i n p u t s . Perhaps even more c o m p e l l i n g i s t h e b r u t a l r e a l i t y t h a t i f more C a n a d i a n f i r m s d o n ' t make t h e t r a n s i t i o n t o a f o r e i g n d i r e c t i n v e s t m e n t p r e s e n c e , t h e n t h e i r U . S . , Japanese or European c o m p e t i t o r s w i l l s u r e l y s t e p i n and p r o v i d e t h a t i n v e s t m e n t (and, i n t h e p r o c e s s , reap t h e downstream b e n e f i t s t h a t would have a c c r u e d t o Canada) . I t i s recommended, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l governments s e r i o u s l y r e c o n s i d e r t h e i r c u r r e n t l y e x c l u s i v e emphasis on t h e promotion of C a n a d i a n e x p o r t s and r e c o g n i z e t h e b e n e f i t s t h a t c o u l d a c c r u e t o Canada from a f o r e i g n d i r e c t investment p r e s e n c e i n some o f f s h o r e markets . The c r i t e r i a f o r support of such i n v e s t m e n t s would, of c o u r s e , have t o be m^de v e r y c l e a r i n o r d e r t o a v o i d any p o s s i b i l i t y of a p o l i t i c a l b a c k l a s h . But f o r t h o s e markets where no o t h e r form of l o c a l p r e s e n c e i s p o s s i b l e (or permitted) and where a Canadian p r e s e n c e i n t h a t market i s c o n s i d e r e d e s s e n t i a l , such support s h o u l d be forthcoming. F i n a l l y , t h e r e was widespread agreement, among a l l t h e respondents i n t h i s s t u d y , t h a t one of t h e g r e a t e s t b a r r i e r s t o an i n c r e a s e d B r i t i s h Columbia presence i n t h e ASEAN market i s t h e l a c k of a c c u r a t e and t i m e l y i n f o r m a t i o n on p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s . I n r e a l i t y , t h e r e a r e o n l y two ways t o a d d r e s s t h i s problem. One i s t o p h y s i c a l l y p l a c e B . C . f i r m s i n the ASEAN marketplace and a l l o w them t o - 233 -g a t h e r t h e n e c e s s a r y i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e m s e l v e s or a t l e a s t l o c a t e someone who can g a t h e r i t f o r them ( i . e . , a l o c a l a g e n t , r e p r e s e n t a t i v e , or p a r t n e r ) . The o t h e r i s t o p h y s i c a l l y b r i n g t h a t market o p p o r t u n i t y i n f o r m a t i o n back t o f i r m s i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Of t h e s e two o p t i o n s , i t i s recommended t h a t t h e b u l k of t h e government's p r o m o t i o n a l a c t i v i t y s h o u l d be d i r e c t e d towards t h e f i r s t ( i . e . , g e t t i n g B . C . f i r m s t o t h e m a r k e t p l a c e ) . As we have seen t h i s o p t i o n i m p l i e s more generous f i n a n c i a l support t o c o v e r f r e q u e n t and r e p e a t e d t r i p s t o the m a r k e t p l a c e . I t a l s o i m p l i e s i n c r e a s e d f i n a n c i a l support f o r the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of l o c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f f i c e s o v e r s e a s and i t i m p l i e s i n c r e a s e d f i n a n c i a l support f o r a t t e n d a n c e a t r e g i o n a l t r a d e f a i r s and forums. Furthermore, i t i m p l i e s i n c r e a s e d support f o r e x p o r t e r v i s i t s t o t h e major i n t e r n a t i o n a l development a g e n c i e s , and i t i m p l i e s support f o r r e g i o n a l i n i t i a t i v e s t o i n t r o d u c e s m a l l e r Canadian s u p p l i e r s and s u b - c o n t r a c t o r s t o l a r g e r m u l t i n a t i o n a l f i r m s (both Canadian and A m e r i c a n ) . With r e g a r d t o t h e second o p t i o n - b r i n g i n g t h e r e l e v a n t market o p p o r t u n i t y i n f o r m a t i o n t o f i r m s i n B . C . - t h e r o l e of t h e government s h o u l d be l i m i t e d t o b r i n g i n g key p u r c h a s e or c o n t r a c t d e c i s i o n makers from t h e r e g i o n ( i n t h i s c a s e ASEAN) t o B r i t i s h Columbia and i n t r o d u c i n g them t o l o c a l s u p p l i e r s and manufacturers (an o p t i o n a l r e a d y p r o v i d e d f o r under c u r r e n t f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l Incoming Buyer - 234 -Programs). Governments s h o u l d not get i n v o l v e d i n t h e a b s t r a c t i o n , t r a n s l a t i o n or d i s t r i b u t i o n of l o c a l ASEAN s o u r c e m a t e r i a l s ( p r i n t e d or p u b l i s h e d ) , nor s h o u l d t h e y get i n v o l v e d i n t h e b u i l d i n g of m a s s i v e o n - l i n e b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t y d a t a b a s e s (beyond t h e p o s s i b l e c o n s t r u c t i o n and d i s s e m i n a t i o n of a l o c a l c o n t a c t s and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s f i l e ) . C l e a r l y , governments cannot hope t o p r o v i d e t h e k i n d of m i c r o - l e v e l , f i r m - s p e c i f i c , market i n t e l l i g e n c e t h a t i s u l t i m a t e l y needed t o succeed i n ASEAN. I n s t e a d , governments s h o u l d l e a v e t h a t t y p e of i n f o r m a t i o n t a s k t o t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r . F i rms s e r i o u s l y i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e ASEAN market , can commission a t a r g e t e d l o c a l market s t u d y or a r r a n g e t o p u r c h a s e t h a t k i n d of m a r k e t - l e v e l d e t a i l from a knowledgeable l o c a l s o u r c e . Governments, on t h e o t h e r hand, s h o u l d c o n t e n t themselves w i t h h e l p i n g t h e i r e x p o r t e r s f i n d a p p r o p r i a t e and r e l i a b l e s u p p l i e r s of t h a t k i n d of i n f o r m a t i o n (and not w i t h u s u r p i n g t h e r o l e of t h o s e i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s t h e m s e l v e s ) . Governments s h o u l d a l s o e x p l i c i t l y r e c o g n i z e t h a t f i r m s v a r y w i d e l y i n t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e i n , and commitment t o , t h e export m a r k e t p l a c e . U n t i l v e r y r e c e n t l y , governments tended t o o f f e r t h e i r e x p o r t e r s f i n a n c i a l support under f a i r l y r i g i d l y d e f i n e d export development programs. Whi le i t has been suggested s e v e r a l t imes b e f o r e , 1 6 2 i t i s worth r e p e a t i n g the s u g g e s t i o n t h a t governments t a i l o r t h e i r export a s s i s t a n c e - 235 -programs t o t h e s k i l l and commitment l e v e l s of t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l e x p o r t e r s . C l e a r l y , t h e a s s i s t a n c e needs of e x p o r t e r s change over t ime as t h e i r p r e s e n c e matures i n some markets and a s t h e y e n t e r o t h e r s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i t h a s been v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o t a i l o r export support under t r a d i t i o n a l government program mandates. One p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t o the c u r r e n t "program" s t y l e of government export support i s an " u m b r e l l a fund" which would a l l o w c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s c r e t i o n as t o t h e c r i t e r i a f o r support and t h e l e v e l of funding awarded. I t must be acknowledged from t h e o u t s e t , however, t h a t such an " u m b r e l l a fund" may be open t o c r i t i c i s m s of b u r e a u c r a t i c d i s c r e t i o n and l a c k of t r a n s p a r e n c y as t o t h e c r i t e r i a f o r s e l e c t i o n and s u p p o r t . But perhaps such d i s c r e t i o n i s e x a c t l y what i s needed. Some f i r m s c l e a r l y do not belong i n the export m a r k e t p l a c e and a l t h o u g h t h i s may be an unpopular message f o r some, i t c e r t a i n l y does not negate i t s v a l i d i t y . The government of B r i t i s h Columbia may, t h e r e f o r e , f i n a l l y be on t h e r i g h t t r a c k w i t h the r e c e n t e s t a b l i s h m e n t of i t s B r i t i s h Columbia Trade Development C o r p o r a t i o n (BCTDC). As an a r m ' s - l e n g t h crown c o r p o r a t i o n , the BCTDC may be a b l e t o a d m i n i s t e r i t s e x p o r t promotion funds i n a more c r e a t i v e manner t h a n was p r e v i o u s l y p o s s i b l e under the c o n s t r a i n t s of a p r o v i n c i a l m i n i s t r y mandate. A b s o l u t e l y c r i t i c a l t o t h e s u c c e s s of the BCTDC i n i t i a t i v e , however, w i l l be the w i l l i n g n e s s of t h e - 236 -government t o put enough c a p i t a l i n t o t h e " u m b r e l l a fund" t o p e r m i t t h e k i n d of expanded a c t i v i t i e s recommended above. Without t h e a p p r o p r i a t e l e v e l of f u n d i n g , t h e BCTDC w i l l q u i c k l y f i n d i t s e l f f a l l i n g back on t h e same l i m i t e d r e p e r t o i r e of i n i t i a t i v e s employed by i t s p r e d e c e s s o r s and w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same l e v e l of market s u c c e s s . T h a t , i n t u r n , would be a most u n f o r t u n a t e development a s f a r a s an i n c r e a s e d B r i t i s h Columbia p r e s e n c e i n ASEAN i s concerned. - 237 -Appendix 1 . L e t t e r of I n v i t a t i o n t o P a r t i c i p a t e i n Study F e b r u a r y , 1986 (Address) Dear Mr. : As p a r t of t h e C e n t r e f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s S t u d i e s 1 c o n t i n u i n g i n t e r e s t i n t h e r o l e of Canadian b u s i n e s s i n t h e P a c i f i c Rim, I would l i k e t o i n v i t e you t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n an i n t e r v i e w s t u d y c o n c e r n i n g your f i r m ' s e x p e r i e n c e i n t h e ASEAN c o u n t r i e s of S i n g a p o r e , M a l a y s i a , I n d o n e s i a , T h a i l a n d , B r u n e i , and t h e P h i l i p p i n e s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , we a r e i n t e r e s t e d i n how your f i r m f i r s t became i n v o l v e d i n ASEAN, how you l e a r n e d of p o t e n t i a l b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN, and what s o u r c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n you found u s e f u l i n u n c o v e r i n g t h o s e o p p o r t u n i t i e s ? The r e s e a r c h w i l l be c a r r i e d out by Mr. M i c h a e l C a r t e r , a g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t i n t h e F a c u l t y of Commerce and B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , and w i l l form an i n t e g r a l p a r t of h i s MSc. t h e s i s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s . I w i l l be t h e f a c u l t y s u p e r v i s o r f o r t h i s t h e s i s . The r e s e a r c h format, i t s e l f , does not i n v o l v e a formal w r i t t e n q u e s t i o n n a i r e , but i n s t e a d c o n s i s t s of about a dozen s p e c i f i c q u e s t i o n s we would l i k e t o d i s c u s s w i t h you. We e s t i m a t e t h e i n t e r v i e w w i l l t a k e about 45 minutes t o an hour. Any i n f o r m a t i o n you p r o v i d e w i l l , of c o u r s e , be h e l d i n t h e s t r i c t e s t c o n f i d e n c e . Any f i n d i n g s or c o n c l u s i o n s w i l l o n l y be p r e s e n t e d i n aggregate form, making a t t r i b u t i o n of s p e c i f i c i n f o r m a t i o n t o any one f i r m i m p o s s i b l e . We would be v e r y p l e a s e d t o send you a copy of t h e r e s u l t s of t h e s t u d y i f you a r e i n t e r e s t e d . Thank you f o r any a s s i s t a n c e you may be a b l e t o o f f e r i n t h i s s t u d y . The p a r t i c i p a t i o n of your f i r m i n t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t w i l l be of g r e a t h e l p . Mr. C a r t e r w i l l c o n t a c t you s h o r t l y , by t e l e p h o n e , t o arrange an i n t e r v i e w a t your c o n v e n i e n c e . I f you have any q u e s t i o n s , p l e a s e f e e l f r e e t o c o n t a c t e i t h e r Mr. C a r t e r a t 2 2 2 - 1 8 8 7 or m y s e l f a t 2 2 4 - 8 4 3 4 . S i n c e r e l y y o u r s , Dr . J . W . C . Tomlinson A s s o c i a t e P r o f e s s o r F a c u l t y of Commerce and B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n - 238 -Appendix 2 . I n t e r v i e w Q u e s t i o n n a i r e How d i d your f i r m f i r s t become i n v o l v e d i n t h e ASEAN market? What was t h e s o u r c e of t h e i n i t i a l p i e c e of i n f o r m a t i o n about t h a t p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t / n e e d and t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t i t might r e p r e s e n t an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r y o u r f i r m ? Do you r e c a l l a p p r o x i m a t e l y how long i t took t o b r i n g t h a t i n i t i a l p r o j e c t / d e m a n d from t h e i n q u i r y s t a g e t o a s u c c e s s f u l c o n c l u s i o n or s a l e ? What has been your f i r m ' s most r e c e n t involvement i n t h e ASEAN market? How d i d i t come about? What was t h e s o u r c e of t h e i n i t i a l p i e c e of i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h i s most r e c e n t c a s e ? Looking back over t h e t ime which has e l a p s e d s i n c e your f i r m ' s i n i t i a l involvement i n ASEAN, have you n o t i c e d any d i f f e r e n c e s or changes i n the s o u r c e s through which you h e a r of p o t e n t i a l market o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n ASEAN? F o r example, the use of d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s , t h e emergence of new s o u r c e s ? I n your e x p e r i e n c e , what has been the s i n g l e most u s e f u l s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n on b u s i n e s s o p p o r t u n i t i e s , f o r your f i r m , i n ASEAN? Looking ahead, do you b e l i e v e t h a t p a r t i c u l a r s o u r c e (from answer t o q u e s t i o n 7) w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be t h e most p r o d u c t i v e ? I f n o t , why n o t ? What s o u r c e ( s ) do you expect t o supercede i t ? P l e a s e review the a t t a c h e d l i s t of " P o t e n t i a l I n f o r m a t i o n Sources on ASEAN B u s i n e s s O p p o r t u n i t i e s " , and i n d i c a t e t h e t e n or so s o u r c e s you b e l i e v e t o be t h e most important f o r your f i r m . A s s i g n a 1 t o the most important s o u r c e , a 2 t o the second most important . . . e t c . - 239 -1 0 . P l e a s e rev iew t h e a t t a c h e d l i s t of " P u b l i s h e d S o u r c e s of I n f o r m a t i o n on ASEAN". I n d i c a t e which ones you use t o s t a y a b r e a s t of developments i n ASEAN and whether you r e a d them r e g u l a r l y or o n l y s c a n them o c c a s i o n a l l y . I g n o r e t h o s e which you never r e a d or have not h e a r d o f , b u t f e e l f r e e t o any you f e e l a r e m i s s i n g . I f any p u b l i c a t i o n s a r e of p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e as i n f o r m a t i o n s o u r c e s , p l e a s e u n d e r l i n e t h e i r t i t l e s . 1 1 . A p p r o x i m a t e l y how many hours a week do you spend t r y i n g t o keep up on r e a d i n g r e l a t e d t o ASEAN? I s t h i s r e a d i n g done a t home or t h e o f f i c e ? 1 2 . How important i s ASEAN t o your f i r m ? Compared t o : A S E A N / A f r i c a ? A S E A N / L a t i n America? ASEAN/North America? ASEAN/North A s i a ? (Japan, Korea, C h i n a , HK) ASEAN/Western Europe? ASEAN/Eastern Europe? A S E A N / A u s t r a l i a & N . Z . 1 3 . Background Data: Annual S a l e s of F irm? Year F i r m E s t a b l i s h e d ? ASEAN S a l e s a s % of Number of ASEAN C o u n t r i e s T o t a l S a l e s ? I n ? Number of Employees? Respondents Tenure w i t h F irm? -- 240 -Appendix 3 . P o t e n t i a l S o u r c e s of I n f o r m a t i o n on ASEAN B u s i n e s s O p p o r t u n i t i e s A. P e r s o n a l S o u r c e s 1 . E x t e r n a l t o t h e F i r m Customers S u p p l i e r s Compet i tors F r i e n d s , R e l a t i v e s , P e r s o n a l A c q u a i n t a n c e s O u t s i d e P r o f e s s i o n a l s ( i . e . l a w y e r s , a c c o u n t a n t s , bankers) C o n s u l t a n t s ( i n c l u d i n g b u s i n e s s , t r a d e , and e n g i n e e r i n g ) Canadian G o v ' t Trade Commissioners P r o v i n c i a l G o v ' t Trade O f f i c i a l s F o r e i g n G o v ' t Embassy and Trade O f f i c i a l s I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency P e r s o n n e l ( i . e . World Bank, ADB) Canadian I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency (CIDA) P e r s o n n e l Export Development C o r p o r a t i o n (EDC) P e r s o n n e l C i t y of Vancouver Economic Development O f f i c e r s Other s o u r c e s ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) 2 . I n t e r n a l t o t h e F i r m S u b o r d i n a t e s i n F i r m ' s Canadian O f f i c e ( s ) S u b o r d i n a t e s i n F i r m ' s Overseas O f f i c e ( s ) Agents , D e a l e r s , D i s t r i b u t o r s L i c e n s e e s and J o i n t Venture P a r t n e r s C o l l e a g u e s i n F i r m ' s Canadian O f f i c e ( s ) C o l l e a g u e s i n F i r m ' s A f f i l i a t e d or S u b s i d i a r y O f f i c e ( s ) Overseas O b s e r v a t i o n s Made During P e r s o n a l V i s i t t o ASEAN Market(s) Other s o u r c e s ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) - 241 -N o n - P e r s o n a l Sources 1 . E x t e r n a l t o the F i r m Newspapers T. V. R a d i o B u s i n e s s Magazines and P e r i o d i c a l s Trade J o u r n a l s and Magazines P r o f e s s i o n a l J o u r n a l s Bank or Other S p e c i a l i z e d N e w s l e t t e r G o v ' t P u b l i c a t i o n s , N e w s l e t t e r s , R e p o r t s World Bank, ADB, or S i m i l a r Agency P r o j e c t and Tender L i s t s CIDA P r o j e c t and Tender L i s t s Trade Shows, E x h i b i t i o n s , Conferences Trade M i s s i o n s t o ASEAN Incoming Buyer M i s s i o n s Computer-based E x p e r t i s e L i s t i n g s ( i . e . CIDA S k i l l s I n v e n t o r y ) Export Promotion Programs ( i . e . PEMD, C a p i t a l P r e p a r a t i o n Program) Other s o u r c e s ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) I n t e r n a l t o t h e F i r m R e g u l a r I n t e r n a l Company R e p o r t s , Memos, B r i e f i n g s R e g u l a r l y Scheduled I n t e r n a l Meetings L e t t e r s and Correspondence I r r e g u l a r (but S p e c i f i c a l l y Commissioned) R e p o r t s , B r i e f i n g s Corporate L i b r a r y or I n f o r m a t i o n C l i p p i n g / A b s t r a c t i n g S e r v i c e Other s o u r c e s ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) - 242 -Appendix 4. P o t e n t i a l P u b l i s h e d S o u r c e s of I n f o r m a t i o n on ASEAN Read Scan R e g u l a r l y Newspapers O c c a s i o n a l l y Vancouver Sun The P r o v i n c e Globe and M a i l The F i n a n c i a l P o s t W a l l S t r e e t J o u r n a l New York Times I n t e r n a t i o n a l H e r a l d T r i b u n e A s i a n W a l l S t r e e t J o u r n a l L o c a l ASEAN Papers Others ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) B u s i n e s s Magazines Asiaweek F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review A s i a P a c i f i c B u s i n e s s B u s i n e s s A s i a B u s i n e s s I n t e r n a t i o n a l A s i a n F i n a n c e B u s i n e s s Review Time Newsweek Fortune B u s i n e s s Week The Economist B . C . B u s i n e s s Canadian B u s i n e s s Other ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) N e w s l e t t e r s & G o v ' t P u b l i c a t i o n s CanadExport Cdn Export A s s . News B u l l e t i n ADB Q u a r t e r l y Review IMF S t a f f Papers Bank of T h a i l a n d Q ' l y Review Bangkok Bank Monthly Review ASEAN Economic B u l l e t i n A s i a L e t t e r I n d o n e s i a L e t t e r P h i l i p p i n e s L e t t e r B u s i n e s s America Other ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) Trade J o u r n a l s & Magazines ( P l e a s e s p e c i f y ) - 243 -FOOTNOTES A c c o r d i n g t o S t a t i s t i c s Canada, C a n a d i a n e x p o r t s t o Western Europe t o t a l e d $ 8 , 5 1 5 b i l l i o n i n 1982 compared t o $ 8 , 9 0 1 b i l l i o n worth of C a n a d i a n e x p o r t s t o t h e A s i a P a c i f i c r e g i o n i n t h a t same y e a r . S t a t i s t i c s Canada, E x p o r t s by C o u n t r y ; C a t a l o g u e No. 6 5 - 0 0 3 , (Ottawa: Department of Supply and S e r v i c e s , 1 9 8 8 ) , pp. 4 7 - 5 1 . Rod N u t t , "Board Gets A s i a E x p e r t s , " The Sun ( V a n c o u v e r ) , 20 June 1 9 8 5 , page not noted. Department of E x t e r n a l A f f a i r s , " P a c i f i c 2 0 0 0 , " A s l i d e p r e s e n t a t i o n made t o f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l M i n i s t e r s of T r a d e , Ottawa, O n t a r i o , 1 7 A p r i l 1 9 8 9 , p h o t o c o p i e d . Department of E x t e r n a l A f f a i r s , " A s i a / P a c i f i c P o t e n t i a l Tremendous - K e l l e h e r , " CanadExport 4, no. 5 ( 10 March 1 9 8 6 ) : p. 1 . M i n i s t r y of I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s and I m m i g r a t i o n , "New Trade and Investment O f f i c e Opens," News R e l e a s e No. 8 9 - 1 2 5 , 10 A p r i l 1 9 8 9 . Pete McMartin, "Holy G r a i l on t h e P a c i f i c R i m , " The Sun (Vancouver) , 6 March 1 9 8 5 , page not noted. 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Roger H a y t e r , "Export Performance and E x p o r t P o t e n t i a l : Western Canadian E x p o r t s of Manufactured End P r o d u c t s , " The Canadian Geographer 30, no. 1 ( 1 9 8 6 ) : p. 28. 1 3 6 . H a y t e r , Working Paper No. 1 4 , pp. 1 6 - 3 1 . 1 3 7 . H a y t e r , Working Paper No. 2 1 , p. 2 2 . 1 3 8 . H a y t e r , Export Performance, p. 36. 1 3 9 . H a y t e r , Export Performance, p. 3 7 . 1 4 0 . J e a n - E m i l e Denis and D a n i e l D e p e l t e a u , "Market Knowledge, D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n and Export E x p a n s i o n , " J o u r n a l of I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s S t u d i e s ( F a l l 1 9 8 5 ) : pp. 7 7 - 8 9 . 1 4 1 . Denis and Depelteau, Market Knowledge, p . 79. 1 4 2 . Denis and Depelteau, Market Knowledge, p . 86. 143 . Denis and Depelteau, Market Knowledge, p. 87. - 253 -1 4 4 . The Coopers & Lybrand Group, " C o n s u l t i n g E n g i n e e r s of B r i t i s h Columbia: Market P e r c e p t i o n S t u d y , " P r i v a t e Study Commissioned i n C o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e B . C . M i n i s t r y of I n d u s t r y and S m a l l B u s i n e s s Development, May 1 9 8 6 , photocopied. 1 4 5 . The Coopers & Lybrand Group, C o n s u l t i n g E n g i n e e r s , p. 70. 14 6. D a v i d L . Balcome, Choosing T h e i r Own P a t h s : P r o f i l e s of t h e Export S t r a t e g i e s of C a n a d i a n M a n u f a c t u r e r s (Ottawa: Conference Board of Canada, I n t e r n a t i o n a l B u s i n e s s R e s e a r c h C e n t r e , 1 9 8 6 ) . 1 4 7 . Balcome, Choosing T h e i r Own P a t h s , p. 38. 1 4 8 . U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia and t h e C a n a d i a n Committee of t h e P a c i f i c B a s i n Economic C o u n c i l , " C o l l o q u i u m on Canadian Market Presence i n ASEAN", Photocopy of Summary and Recommendations, A p r i l 1 9 8 5 , Vancouver, B . C . 1 4 9 . UBC and PBEC, Col loquium, p. 1 . 1 5 0 . UBC and PBEC, C o l l o q u i u m , p. 1 . 1 5 1 . U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia and t h e Canadian Committee of t h e P a c i f i c B a s i n Economic C o u n c i l , " C o l l o q u i u m on Canadian Market Presence i n ASEAN", Photocopy of Background Paper, March 1 9 8 5 , Vancouver, B . C . 1 5 2 . Howard Mann Quoted i n A s h l e y F o r d , " F r e e E n t e r p r i s e The Way," P r o v i n c e (Vancouver) , 6 May 1 9 8 5 , p . 45. 1 5 3 . C. Mayer and J . F l y n n , "Canadian S m a l l B u s i n e s s Abroad: O p p o r t u n i t i e s , A i d s and E x p e r i e n c e s , " The B u s i n e s s Q u a r t e r l y (Winter 1 9 7 3 ) : p. 44. 1 5 4 . Cunningham and S p i g e l , A Study i n S u c c e s s f u l E x p o r t i n g , p. 8 - 9 . 1 5 5 . B i l k e y and T e s a r , The Export B e h a v i o u r , p . 94. 1 5 6 . B r i a n Land, Sources of I n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e Canadian Businessman (Montreal : The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, 1 9 7 2 ) , p. 1 . - 254 -1 5 7 . A l a n K. E n g e l , "Number One i n Competitor I n t e l l i g e n c e , " A c r o s s t h e Board, December 1 9 8 7 , p . 44. 1 5 8 . Canadian Embassy (Tokyo), U n c l a s s i f i e d T e l e x UIT 4469, 1 1 September 1986, p h o t o c o p i e d . 1 5 9 . For example, i n 1 9 7 8 , M i t s u i & Co. spent 1 1 , 9 3 6 m i l l i o n yen on communications expenses a l o n e -t e l e x , t e l e p h o n e , f a c s i m i l e , postage and computer t i m e . G i v e n t h e average exchange r a t e p r e v a i l i n g a t t h a t t ime ( 2 1 0 . 4 4 yen p e r U . S . d o l l a r ) , t h i s amounted t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y U . S . $ 5 6 . 7 m i l l i o n . Data quoted i n K i y o s h i Koj ima and Terutomo Ozawa, J a p a n ' s G e n e r a l T r a d i n g Companies: Merchants of Economic Development ( P a r i s : O r g a n i z a t i o n of Economic C o o p e r a t i o n and Development, 1 9 8 4 ) : p . 25 . 1 6 0 . K e i t h A . J . Hay and P e t e r P r i c e , Canada, J a p a n and t h e P a c i f i c Community (Ottawa: The C a n a d a - J a p a n Trade C o u n c i l , 1 9 8 1 ) , p. 1 2 6 . 1 6 1 . See, f o r example, W.B. Reddaway, E f f e c t s of U . K . D i r e c t Investment O v e r s e a s : An I n t e r i m Report (Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1967) who c a l c u l a t e d t h a t the average n e t c o n t i n u i n g e f f e c t of tlOO of n e t o p e r a t i n g a s s e t s abroad i s t o r a i s e B r i t i s h e x p o r t s of goods and s e r v i c e s by about fcl 1 / 2 and T a l a a t A b d e l - M a l e k , C a n a d a ' s D i r e c t Investment i n Western Europe (Department of R e g i o n a l I n d u s t r i a l E x p a n s i o n Working Paper #75, 1 9 8 5 ) . 1 6 2 . See, f o r example, B i l k e y , An Attempted I n t e g r a t i o n , pp. 3 3 - 4 6 ; Denis and D e p e l t e a u , Market Knowledge, pp. 7 7 - 8 9 ; and H a y t e r , Export Performance and E x p o r t P o t e n t i a l , pp. 2 6 - 3 9 . - 255 -BIBLIOGRAPHY A b d e l - M a l e k , T a l a a t . C a n a d a ' s D i r e c t Investment i n Western Europe. 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