UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

Transit travel to the urban core of Great Vancouver. Karlsen, Erik Henry 1970

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1970_A8 K37.pdf [ 14.21MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0102248.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0102248-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0102248-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0102248-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0102248-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0102248-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0102248-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0102248-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0102248.ris

Full Text

TRANSIT TRAVEL TO THE URBAN CORE OF GREATER VANCOUVER ••• .. by ERIK H. KARLSEN B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1967 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n t h e D e p a r t m e n t • * o f GEOGRAPHY We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d C" THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1970 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s in p a r t i a l - f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l , make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r ag ree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by. h i s - r e p r e s e n t a t . i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n permi s s i on - . Department o f Geography The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Co lumb ia V a n c o u v e r 8, Canada Date A p r i l 3 0 . 1 9 7 0 /ABSTRACT T h i s t h e s i s e x a m i n e s s p a t i a l p a t t e r n s o f t r a n s i t t r a v e l t o t h e downtown c o r e ' o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r . The s t u d y i s p l a c e d w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f e a r l i e r c a s e s t u d i e s o f V a n c o u v e r ' s u r b a n s t r u c t u r e and a l s o draws on n o t i o n s o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . I n t h i s c o n t e x t , t h e s t u d y q u a l i f i e s t h e f u n c t i o n a l r e l e v a n c e o f t r a d i t i o n a l m o d e l s o f u r b a n s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e and u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , w h i c h p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g movement t o t h e c o r e o f t h e modern c i t y . C a r t o g r a p h i c a n a l y s i s f o u n d t r a n s i t t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o t h e downtown c o r e t o be s t r u c t u r e d by d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e c o r e , w i t h f r i c t i o n - f r e e i n n e r zone o f 3 t o 5 m i l e s g e n e r a t i n g h i g h p e r c a p i t a t r i p s t o t h e c o r e and a r a p i d d r o p - o f f i n t r i p s p e r c a p i t a b e y o n d t h i s z o n e ; and b y s o c i o -e c o n o m i c v a r i a t i o n i n r a d i a l l y o r g a n i z e d r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s w i t h i n t h i s i n n e r zone o r " c o r e r i n g " . I t was a l s o d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t sub z o n e s o f t h e downtown c o r e were d i r e c t i o n a l l y . o r i e n t e d t o s o c i a l l y d e f i n e d r e s i d e n t i a l s e c t o r s w i t h i n t h e " c o r e r i n g " . T h i s c o n f i r m s f i n d i n g s o f e a r l i e r c a s e s t u d i e s o f t h e s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r and t h e f u n c t i o n a l r o l e and r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f t h e downtown u r b a n c o r e . However, t h e i n i t i a l l y i d e n t i f i e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s were o n l y p a r t l y s u p p o r t e d b y s u b s e q u e n t s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s . T h i s s u g g e s t e d p r o b l e m s r e s u l t i n g from the u n s u i t a b i l i t y of using aggregate data c o l l e c t i o n unit information ( t r a f f i c zones) to model functional associations underlying s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n ; t h i s indicates a'direction for further research. I t i s also suggested i n conclusion that the 'core r i n g ' model of Greater Vancouver deserves more study, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n view of i t s implications to transportation planning i n t h i s metropolitan area. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ' The following deserve" mention for t h e i r help leading towards and i n the preparation of t h i s study: Dr. Walter G. Hardwick of the Department of Geography for his stimulating i n s i g h t s , encouragement and advice since he f i r s t introduced me to urban geography as an undergraduate, and which he continued to provide through the formulation of t h i s t h e s i s ; to Dr. Roger Leigh of the Department of Geography for his most h e l p f u l guidance and comments, and to Norman Pearson, formerly of the Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, who introduced me to the p r a c t i c a l aspects of urban geography and provided the i n i t i a l opportunity and experience i n planning which were important to completion of t h i s study. Acknowledgement i s given to the Canadian Council for Urban and Regional Research, and to Mr. D. M i l l s of the Transportation D i v i s i o n of B.C. Hydro and Power Authority who supported the Urban Core Project T r a n s i t Survey which provided the data upon which t h i s study i s based. To Connie Isaak I give s p e c i a l thanks f o r her perseverance i n typing my drafts and for the long hours she gave which ensured the completion of t h i s study. A very s p e c i a l thanks to my wife, Hazel, whose assistance and u n t i r i n g patience and encouragement made completion of t h i s study possible. A p r i l 1970 Eri k Karlsen i v TABLE OF CONTENTS ; , PAGE ABSTRACT . .' . . . . . . . .• • . . . . . . . . . . . ... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i i L I S T OF TABLES . . . . . . ". . . . .. . v i i i L I S T OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . X CHAPTER I . TRAVEL BY TRANSIT TO THE DOWNTOWN CORE: BACKGROUND TO THE PROBLEM . . . . . . . . . . 1 1) U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n P e r s p e c t i v e . . . 1 2) Mass T r a n s i t T r a v e l t o t h e C o r e : A C a s e S t u d y o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r -. 5 3) The S t u d y A r e a 7 a) T r a n s i t and U r b a n Form . . . . . . . . . 7 b) V a n c o u v e r ' s U r b a n C o r e . . . . . . . . .. 12 I I . TRANSIT TRAVEL ANALYSIS: DERIVATION OF PROBLEMS 15 PART I — A GENERAL SYSTEMS APPROACH TO INTRA-URBAN TRAVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . 15 1) G r a v i t y M o d e l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2) I n t e r v e n i n g O p p o r t u n i t y M o d e l . . . . . . 18 3) M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n T e c h n i q u e s and t h e Use o f T r a v e l Demand V a r i a b l e s . . . . . 20 I m p l i c a t i o n s o f P a r t I . . . . . . . . . . . 23 PAGE PART I I — T H E URBAN STRUCTURE OF GREATER VANCOUVER AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSIT TRAVEL PATTERNS TO THE CORE 25 1) J o u r n e y t o Work S t u d i e s i n V a n c o u v e r . . . 26 2) C.B.D. S h o p p i n g S t u d i e s i n V a n c o u v e r . . . 28 - I m p l i c a t i o n s o f P a r t I I . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 FORMULATION OF PROBLEMS . . . ... . . . . - . . . 37 CHAPTER I I I . BUS PASSENGER TRIPS TO THE CORE . . . . . . . . 42 1) P e r C a p i t a D i s t r i b u t i o n o f T r a n s i t T r i p s t o t h e C o r e . . . . . . . 44 < a) Work T r i p s . . . . . . . . . 44 b) S h o p p i n g T r i p s . .'. . . . . . . . . . . 47 2) T r i p s t o t h e C o r e Compared w i t h T o t a l T r i p s O r i g i n a t i n g i n E a c h Zone . . . . . . . . 47 a) Work T r i p s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 b) S h o p p i n g T r i p s . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 t 3) D i s t r i b u t i o n o f T r a n s i t T r i p s t o S p e c i f i c C o r e Zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 a) Work T r i p s . 51 b) S h o p p i n g T r i p s . . . • .. . . ". . .. ... . • . • 58 4) Summary and C o n c l u s i o n s . . . . 67 v i CHAPTER ' PAGE' , 'i , ' IV.' STEPWISE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF BUS PASSENGER TRAVEL PATTERNS TO THE CORE . . . . . . . . . 72 '"'1) The I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f I n d e p e n d e n t V a r i a b l e s and T h e i r E x p e c t e d R e l a t i o n s h i p s . . . . 74 2) C o r r e l a t i o n A n a l y s i s o f T r a n s i t V o l u m e s and V a r i a b l e s A s s o c i a t e d W i t h T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n 78 3) Backwards- S t e p w i s e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s o f Bus P a s s e n g e r T r i p O r i g i n s t o t h e C o r e . . 84 4) A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s From R e g r e s s i o n . . . 87 Summary 93 Computer P r i n t o u t #l-~Work T r i p s — A l l Zones . . 98 Computer P r i n t o u t # 2 — S h o p p i n g T r i p s -A l l Zones . . . . . . . . . . 105 Computer P r i n t o u t #3—Work T r i p s — V a n c o u v e r Zones . . . . . • 112 Computer P r i n t o u t # 4 — S h o p p i n g T r i p s — V a n c o u v e r Zones . . • . . . . . . .-•'. • 118 V. CONCLUSIONS . ... . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . 124 1) Summary o f F i n d i n g s o f D e s c r i p t i v e A n a l y s i s . - . . . ' . . . • . • 125 a) C o r e R i n g M o d e l . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 b) O r i e n t a t i o n o f S u b - A r e a s o f t h e C o r e . . 127 2) Summary o f S t a t i s t i c a l A n a l y s i s F i n d i n g s . 127 v i i CHAPTER PAGE 3) . D i r e c t i o n s f o r F u r t h e r R e s e a r c h . . . . . 129 a) R e s e a r c h i n U r b a n S t r u c t u r e . . . . . . .129 b) R e s e a r c h i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g . . 131 4) I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r P l a n n i n g . . . . . . . . . 131 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 APPENDICES I . A REVIEW OF LITERATURE AND CONCEPTS ON SPATIAL INTERACTION . . . . . . . . . . 144 1) G r a v i t y M o d e l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 2) I n t e r v e n i n g O p p o r t u n i t y M o d e l . 1 4 8 3) M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n M o d e l s . . . . . . . . 154 a) The T e c h n i q u e . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 b) I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f I n d e p e n d e n t V a r i a b l e s f o r M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n M o d e l s o f I n t r a - U r b a n T r a v e l . . . - ."' . . . . . 157 4) M o d a l S p l i t M o d e l s . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 I I . THE VANCOUVER URBAN CORE PROJECT TRANSIT SURVEY 17 3 1) S u r v e y P r o c e d u r e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 2) The D a t a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 I I I . DATA COLLECTION UNITS IN TRANSPORTATION STUDIES SOME COMMENTS . . . . . . •'. . . . . .- . . . . 177 . v i i i L I S T OF TABLES TABLE PAGE .1 -Bus P a s s e n g e r T r i p s P e r 1,000 O r i g i n Zone P o p u l a t i o n t o C o r e Zones . ... . . . . . . . 45 2 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Work and S h o p p i n g Bus P a s s e n g e r T r i p s t o t h e C o r e as a P e r C e n t o f A l l Work and S h o p p i n g .Bus P a s s e n g e r T r i p s O r i g i n a t i n g i n Each. Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3 Employment i n t h e U r b a n C o r e : 1965 . . . . . . . . . . 50 4 Bus P a s s e n g e r Work T r i p Ends and Employment D i s t r i b u t i o n i n C o r e Zones . . . . . . . . . 52 5 Bus P a s s e n g e r Work T r i p s t o C o r e Zones b y Sex o f R i d e r . 53 6 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Bus P a s s e n g e r Work T r i p s t o C o r e Zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 7 Bus P a s s e n g e r S h o p p i n g T r i p Ends and R e t a i l . Employment D i s t r i b u t i o n i n C o r e Zones . . . . 59 8 Bus P a s s e n g e r S h o p p i n g T r i p s t o C o r e ;Zones by Sex o f R i d e r . . . . ". . . . . 59 9 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Bus P a s s e n g e r S h o p p i n g T r i p s t o C o r e Zones . . . . 60 10 A s s o c i a t i o n o f T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n V a r i a b l e s W i t h Bus P a s s e n g e r T r i p O r i g i n V olumes . . . . . . 80 11 C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s f o r I n d e p e n d e n t V a r i a b l e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 • i x TABLE ' ' PAGE .12 S t a n d a r d i z e d C l a s s e s f o r R e s i d u a l s o f R e g r e s s i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 13 S t a n d a r d i z e d R e s i d u a l s o f R e g r e s s i o n . . . . . 89 14 Bus P a s s e n g e r T r i p D i s t r i b u t i o n t o C o r e Zone F o r A l l T r i p P u r p o s e s and by Sex . . . . . . 175 X L I S T OF FIGURES -'. FIGURE ' PAGE 1 G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2 S t r e e t C a r T r a c k s — G r o w t h by D e c a d e s t o 1928 . . 9 3 B.C.H. & P.A. T r a n s i t S y s t e m — 1 9 7 0 . . . . . . . 9 4 The S t r u c t u r e o f Downtown . . . . . . . . . . . 11 5 C o r e T r a f f i c Zones . . . . . . . . 11 6 L o c a t i o n Map 43 7 T r a f f i c Zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 8 P e r C a p i t a T r a n s i t T r i p s t o t h e C o r e . ... . . 46 9 T r a n s i t T r i p s t o t h e C o r e as a P e r C e n t o f a l l T r a n s i t T r i p s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 10. P e r C e n t D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Work T r i p O r i g i n s t o C o r e Zones . .' . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . 55 11 P e r C e n t D i s t r i b u t i o n o f S h o p p i n g T r i p O r i g i n s t o C o r e Zones . . . . . . . . . . 61 12 R e s i d u a l s From R e g r e s s i o n . . . . . . . . . . . 91 • CHAPTER I ' TRAVEL BY TRANSIT TO THE DOWNTOWN CORE: BACKGROUND TO THE PROBLEM 1) U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n P e r s p e c t i v e I n many N o r t h A m e r i c a n c i t i e s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o t h e downtown c o r e i s u n d e r r e v i e w , and l a r g e e x p e n d i t u r e s w i l l be n e c e s s a r y w i t h i n t h e n e x t decade t o meet t r a v e l demands to c o r e a r e a s . M a n y ; p l a n s a r e b e i n g a d v a n c e d t o s o l v e p r o b l e m s o f c o n g e s t i o n on r o u t e s l e a d i n g t o , f r o m and w i t h i n t h e c o r e . These p l a n s o f t e n seem t o be b a s e d upon a s s u m p t i o n s of a c i t y s y s t e m w h i c h i s r a d i a l l y o r g a n i z e d a r o u n d a homogeneous c o r e , and w i t h t r a v e l t o t h e c o r e d e c l i n i n g w i t h d i s t a n c e . On t h i s b a s i s p l a n n e r s have c o n t i n u e d t o a t t e m p t to p r o v i d e maximum a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o t h e c o r e a r e a f r o m e n t i r e s p r a w l i n g m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s . Some s t u d i e s have i n d i c a t e d , h o w e v e r , t h e need t o l o o k a t t h e c h a n g i n g n a t u r e o f t h e c o r e and t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s t h i s has on i t s s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s , as a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g ' . Thus t h e c h a n g i n g employment p a t t e r n i n t h e c o r e and t h e s e c t o r a l m a r k e t o r i e n t a t i o n o f C . B . D . r e t a i l i n g has a l r e a d y been documented i n t h e V a n c o u v e r c a s e , and i t has been shown t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l n o t i o n s o f u r b a n s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e do n o t p r o v i d e a s u i t a b l e d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e f o r c e s a t work i n s t r u c t u r i n g i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l p a t t e r n s . 2. The core area of Greater Vancouver i s the largest single focus of t r a v e l patterns within the metropolitan area as a r e s u l t of i t s functional r o l e as the l o c a t i o n of increasingly concentrated growth of o f f i c e a c t i v i t i e s and i t s continued role as the largest concentration of metropolitan r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s . Explanation of t r a v e l patterns to the core are usually drawn from (a) t r a d i t i o n a l notions of urban structure which describe the core i n terms of c e n t r a l place dominance (central place theory) or the point of maximum a c c e s s i b i l i t y (ecological theory); and from (b) the basic p r i n c i p l e s of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n ; distance decay, intervening opportunities and complementarity. Either approach suggests that t r a v e l to the core w i l l decline i n an orderly manner with distance from the core. However, case studies of the Vancouver area have provided indications that these generalizations of urban structure and s p a t i a l i n t e r -action do not consistently explain t r a v e l to the downtown core. Other forces have been shown to operate i n structuring work and shopping t r a v e l patterns to the core i n the l o c a l case. For example, the core area hinterland was found to be r a d i a l l y organized into homogeneous socio-economic sectors which are f r i c t i o n - f r e e up to a distance of about f i v e miles. Distance decay and intervening opportunity forces were found to operate beyond t h i s distance r e s u l t i n g i n a precipitous decline of t r i p s to the downtown core. On closer examination of core-hinterland r e l a t i o n s h i p s , s p e c i a l i z e d sub areas of the core were found to be oriented towards d i s t i n c t sectors of the area within the "core zone of influence" termed the core-r i n g by Hardwick i n a recent paper. ^ Transportation planning i s the focus of considerable attention i n Greater Vancouver and has been for the past f i f t e e n years, yet few of the plans have been implemented. Meanwhile the area has grown and i t s urban pattern has changed as have t r a v e l patterns, yet solutions to urban transportation problems appear to continue to view the ent i r e metropolitan area as a core focussed system. Although small i n comparison to some North American metropolitan areas, Greater Vancouver (Figure 1) (with only (2) •1,000,000 people) i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of many larger urban areas i n terms of i t s transportation problems. With a growing high density, p h y s i c a l l y r e s t r i c t e d core, extensive low density suburban expansion and a transportation system based p r i m a r i l y on automobile t r a v e l , Greater Vancouver i s experiencing major transportation congestion i n peak period t r a v e l to the core. Every day an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 automobile t r i p s are made to, from and through the (3) core. By comparison, 60,000 to 65,000 people t r a v e l by (4) t r a n s i t to and from the core. So far only improvements i n the road systems serving the core have been offered as solutions to ease congestion. Figure 1 •Yet these have been recognized as only p a r t i a l solutions, and consultants' reports have stated that although improvements such as freeways and a new Burrard Inlet crossing are necessary, they too w i l l become used beyond e f f i c i e n t capacity soon a f t e r c o m p l e t i o n . ^ Transportation system improvements currently being studied for the Greater Vancouver area are focussed on pu b l i c rapid t r a n s i t . The findings of t h i s report are not yet a v a i l a b l e , but judging from past reports,-at may take a s i m i l a r approach to. previous road network studies which continually have resulted i n recommendations to increase core area a c c e s s i b i l i t y to di s t a n t peripheral suburbs. 2) Mass Tra n s i t Travel to the Core: A Case Study of  Greater Vancouver The purpose of t h i s study i s to i d e n t i f y and describe i n an explanatory manner some of the functional r e l a t i o n s h i p s associated with the s p a t i a l patterns of t r a n s i t t r a v e l to the core area of Greater Vancouver. Two facets of t h i s problem are i s o l a t e d for examination. The f i r s t i s to define the r o l e of the core as the focus of mass t r a n s i t t r a v e l within the metropolitan area, and to indicate general factors inherent i n the structure of the metropolitan area which appear to be f u n c t i o n a l l y associated with l o c a l patterns of t r a n s i t t r a v e l . This question i s placed within the context "6. o f e x i s t i n g ca se s t u d i e s o f V a n c o u v e r a r e a t r a v e l p a t t e r n s / w h i c h have a l r e a d y d e m o n s t r a t e d ' t h a t t h i s a r e a does n o t c o n f o r m t o some t r a d i t i o n a l n o t i o n s o f u r b a n p a t t e r n . The s e c o n d p r o b l e m i s t o i d e n t i f y s p e c i f i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e " z o n e o f c o r e a r e a i n f l u e n c e " w h i c h a r e f u n c t i o n a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t r a n s i t t r i p s t o t h e c o r e . The a p p r o a c h u s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s i s n o t o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s r i g o r o u s s c i e n t i f i c a n a l y s i s , s i n c e t h e r e s e a r c h d e s i g n f o r d a t a c o l l e c t i o n was n o t d e v e l o p e d t o g i v e c o n c l u s i v e answers t o t h e q u e s t i o n s p o s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s b u t r a t h e r t o g i v e g e n e r a l i n d i c a t i o n s o f t r a n s i t t r a v e l p a t t e r n r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n V a n c o u v e r . ^ A r i g o r o u s s c i e n t i f i c a p p r o a c h t o t h e a n a l y s i s i s t h u s n o t j u s t i f i e d n o r p o s s i b l e . .The a p p r o a c h t a k e n i s s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f a p i l o t s t u d y , where t e c h n i q u e s a r e t e s t e d and e x p e c t a t i o n s a r e e x a m i n e d . H y p o t h e s i s f o r m u l a t i o n i s p h r a s e d i n t e r m s o f e x p e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and f i n d i n g s a r e i n t e r p r e t e d i n t e r m s o f " i n d i c a t i o n s " , r a t h e r t h a n t a k e n as c o n c l u s i v e s u p p o r t o f e x p e c t a t i o n s . The d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e s e e x p e c t a t i o n s i s t h e p u r p o s e o f C h a p t e r I I , a two p a r t c h a p t e r . The f i r s t p a r t draws i n s p i r a t i o n f r o m A p p e n d i x I , a r e v i e w o f u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g c o n c e p t s and t r a v e l p a t t e r n p r e d i c t i o n m o d e l s . The s e c o n d p a r t s u m m a r i z e s , r e v i e w s and draws c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m t h e f i n d i n g s o f some r e c e n t c a s e s t u d i e s o f V a n c o u v e r ' s c o r e area and i t s re l a t i o n s h i p s with the Greater Vancouver area. Chapters III and IV contain an empirical analysis of work t r i p s and shopping t r i p s by t r a n s i t to the core of Vancouver. The l e v e l of analysis i n Chapter III i s d e s c r i p t i v e , employing cartographic techniques to identify, the s p a t i a l patterns of t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n and to 'test' notions about the influence of distance and t r i p demand (s o c i a l area) c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s on t r i p patterns to the core and i t s sub-areas. Chapter IV goes further and employs s t a t i s t i c a l . techniques of analysis to t e s t c e r t a i n ideas about the re l a t i o n s h i p s between t r i p s generated to the core and the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of r e s i d e n t i a l areas. Correlation and backwards stepwise regression techniques and residuals from regression analysis are employed to i s o l a t e those c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of r e s i d e n t i a l areas expected to give surrogate explanation of mass t r a n s i t t r a v e l patterns. F i n a l l y , i n Chapter V, conclusions are drawn, d i r e c t i o n s for further work are suggested, and some implications of the thesis findings to mass t r a n s i t planning decisions i n Greater Vancouver are advanced. 3).The Study Area a) Transit and Urban Form Greater Vancouver i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of other North American c i t i e s , i n that i t s present form was 8 structured by r a d i a l t r a n s i t route patterns during Its early development, which was followed by i n f i l l i n g and peripheral settlement expansion subsequent to the (7) widespread use of the automobile. The period of influence of t r a n s i t was from the inception of the f i r s t t r a n s i t service i n 1889, when Vancouver had l i t t l e more than 10,000 people up to the Second World War. During t h i s f o r t y year period, the physical form of the City of Vancouver and adjacent areas, as well as North Vancouver C i t y , was established. (Figure 2) (Today these areas form what Hardwick has c a l l e d the 'core r i n g 1 with more s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n focussed on the core than with other areas of the metropolitan i (8) a r e a — i n other words the 'core zone of influence'. I t i s noted here that t h i s zone has h i s t o r i c a l o r i g i n s structured by early t r a n s i t route patterns. The implications of t h i s zone or r i n g are discussed further i n Chapter I I , Part I I . ) Transit routes were located" and developed to serve e x i s t i n g r e s i d e n t i a l .areas, and to encourage settlement along new routes. The objective of t r a n s i t route planners was to provide service to a l l areas of the City (Vancouver) within a quarter of a mile, or f i v e minutes' walking time. Strengthening of the commercial v i t a l i t y of the core area (central business d i s t r i c t ) was the paramount 9 F i g u r e 2 197 0 F i g u r e 3 10 o b j e c t i v e w i t h a l l r o u t e s l a i d o u t t o p r o v i d e maximum d i r e c t s e r v i c e b e t w e e n d e v e l o p i n g r e s i d e n t i a l (9) a r e a s and t h e c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t . P r i o r t o t h e 2nd W o r l d War, and i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f p o s t - w a r y e a r s , B a r t h o l o m e w and A s s o c i a t e s , p l a n n i n g c o n s u l t a n t s t o t h e C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r , a c c u r a t e l y p r e d i c t e d t h e f u t u r e o f t r a n s i t r o u t i n g p o l i c i e s i n t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a : P r i o r t o t h e a d v e n t o f t h e a u t o m o b i l e , t r a n s i t f a c i l i t i e s were t h e o n l y means o f mass t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n u r b a n a r e a s . ; C o n s e q u e n t l y p e o p l e l i v e d c l o s e t o t r a n s i t r o u t e s and u r b a n a r e a s were c o m p a c t . The a u t o m o b i l e g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d t h e ' d i s t a n c e t h a t p e o p l e c o u l d t r a v e l b e t w e e n t h e i r homes and p l a c e s o f employment o r o t h e r d e s t i n a t i o n s , and u r b a n r e s i d e n c e s i m m e d i a t e l y s c a t t e r e d o v e r a w i d e a r e a . T h i s c h a n g e i n p o p u l a t i o n p a t t e r n h a d a p r o f o u n d i n f l u e n c e upon t h e t r a n s i t f a c i l i t i e s . T h e y were no l o n g e r t h e o n l y s o u r c e o f r i d i n g and t h e i r r e v e n u e d e c r e a s e d . F u r t h e r m o r e t h e p o p u l a t i o n became so w i d e l y s c a t t e r e d t h a t i t was no l o n g e r p r a c t i c a l t o e x t e n d l i n e s - -e s p e c i a l l y s t r e e t c a r l i n e s t o k e e p p a c e w i t h t h i s new g r o w t h . The m o t o r bus a s s i s t e d i n o v e r c o m i n g t h i s d i f f i c u l t y , b u t i n many, i n s t a n c e s t h e p o p u l a t i o n was so t h i n l y s p r e a d t h a t t h e bus r o u t e was n o t e c o n o m i c a l b e c a u s e o f l o n g d i s t a n c e t r a v e l l e d t o s e r v e a s m a l l number o f r i d e r s . (10) ... The p r e s e n t m a j o r t r a n s i t system, i s shown i n F i g u r e 3 T h i s s y s t e m i s o p e r a t e d by t h e B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a H y d r o and Power A u t h o r i t y , t h e p r e d e c e s s o r o f t h e B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a E l e c t r i c Company. (Note t h a t West V a n c o u v e r THE STRUCTURE OF DOWNTOWN F i g u r e 4 Source: C i t y o f Vancouver P l a n n i n g Department C O R E T R A F F I C Z O N E S F i g u r e 5 Source: C i t y o f Vancouver P l a n n i n g Department P o r t Moody , C o q u i t l a m and 'areas, e a s t a r e ' n o t s e r v e d by . t h i s s y s t e m and were n o t s u r v e y e d by t h e team who g a t h e r e d t h e d a t a on w h i c h t h i s s t u d y i s b a s e d . (See A p p e n d i x I I ) '""The r o u t e s s u r v e y e d a r e i n d i c a t e d i n . F i g u r e 2 . R o u t e s i n o u t l y i n g a r e a s n o t s u r v e y e d a r e c o n n e c t e d w i t h r o u t e s w h i c h s e r v e t h e downtown c o r e . ) The p r e s e n t s y s t e m f o l l o w s a s i m i l a r p a t t e r n t o t h e 1928 s y s t e m , t h e o n l y m a j o r change b e i n g an i n f i l l i n g o f r o u t e s as was p r o j e c t e d i n t h e p o l i c y s t a t e m e n t d i s c u s s e d a b o v e . W i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f two c r o s s - t o w n l i n e s i n V a n c o u v e r and s u b u r b a n sy s tems i n o t h e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , t h e B . C . H . & P . A . T r a n s i t Sys tem r e m a i n s a downtown c o r e f o c u s s e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m , b) V a n c o u v e r ' s U r b a n C o r e The c o r e a r e a i n c l u d e s a v a r i e t y o f a c t i v i t i e s , and i s i n t e r n a l l y d i f f e r e n t i a t e d i n t o f u n c t i o n a l l y d i s t i n c t H i g h d e n s i t y s u b - a r e a s . A c t i v i t y g r o u p i n g s a r e shown i n F i g u r e 4 , w i t h t h e t e r m CORE a p p l i e d t o t h a t a r e a of t h e B u r r a r d P e n i n s u l a w h i c h i s a c t u a l l y t h e C e n t r a l B u s i n e s s D i s t r i c t , c o n t a i n i n g t h e m a j o r r e t a i l s t o r e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f t h e e n t i r e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , p l u s t h e F i n a n c i a l D i s t r i c t . F o r a n a l y t i c a l p u r p o s e s , h o w e v e r , t h e c o r e i s d e f i n e d i n t h i s t h e s i s as t h e a r e a e n c l o s e d by t r a f f i c zones 0 3 , a n d ' 0 5 t o 1 4 . ( F i g u r e 5) T h i s a r e a i n c l u d e s n o t o n l y C . B . D . t y p e f u n c t i o n s b u t a c t i v i t i e s , s u c h as g e n e r a l b u s i n e s s and wholesaling, as well as port f a c i l i t i e s and port oriented i n d u s t r i e s . . Over the past 15 years there has been rapid growth of 'administrative and service o f f i c e s , and a decline and s t a b i l i z a t i o n of r e t a i l a c t i v i t y i n the core area of Vancouver. In 1953, f i v e m i l l i o n square feet of o f f i c e space were located i n the core area. By 1963 t h i s had increased by 1.8 m i l l i o n square feet, and between 1964 and 1968 b u i l d i n g providing an addi t i o n a l 2.6 m i l l i o n square feet of o f f i c e f l o o r space was constructed i n the core. area. This o f f i c e development boom raised the core area o f f i c e space to 9.4 m i l l i o n square feet by 196 8. ^^-^ R e t a i l f l o o r space declined during the 1953 to 1965 period by about 150,000 square feet and has remained stable at about 3 m i l l i o n square - . ' (12) feet since 1963. These figures point out the changing role of the C.B.D. as a growing white c o l l a r employment centre, with the maintenance of i t s r e t a i l capacity. Construction now underway and p o t e n t i a l large scale comprehensive developments planned for the future indicate that t h i s r e t a i l picture w i l l improve i n the 1970's. 14 FOOTNOTES : •, ^ H a r d w i c k , W.G. , Vancouver: The Emergence o f New  Urban P a t t e r n s , u n p u b l i s h e d d r a f t , Department of Geography, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver. (2) G r e a t e r Vancouver R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t , P l a n n i n g Department. . ^N.D. Lea & A s s o c i a t e s , T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Systems f o r  the C i t y o f Vancouver, An A p p r a i s a l , Vancouver, November, 1968, p. 8. (4) Department o f Geography, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. Urban Core P r o j e c t T r a n s i t Survey, 1965. For a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s survey r e f e r t o Appendix II."" T h i s e s t i m a t e a l s o i n c l u d e s an e s t i m a t e f o r bus passenger t r i p volumes from West Vancouver v i a the West Vancouver M u n i c i p a l T r a n s i t Company which was not surveyed. Data was o b t a i n e d f o r a l l r o u t e s i n d i c a t e d i n F i g u r e 3, (data f o r the most w e s t e r l y n o r t h - s o u t h r o u t e i n Vancouver (Dunbar) however was not as g r e a t as expected due to some d i s c r e p a n c y i n the data c o l l e c t i o n o r coding s t a g e ) . ^ P a r s o n s , B r i n k o r h o f f , Quade and Dougals, Vancouver . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Study, San F r a n s i s c o , 1968, p. v i - v i i i . (6) See f o o t n o t e 4, above. (7) H i l t o n , G.W., and Due, J.F. The E l e c t r i c I n t e r - urban Railways i n America, S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , S t a n f o r d , 1960, pp. 422-423. / o \ Hardwick, op. c i t . (9) • Harland Bartholomew & A s s o c i a t e s , A P l a n f o r the C i t y o f Vancouver, B r i t i s h Columbia, i n c l u d i n g P o i n t Grey and South Vancouver, and a General P l a n f o r the Region. Vancouver Town P l a n n i n g Commission, 1929, p. 89. Harland Bartholomew & A s s o c i a t e s , A P r e l i m i n a r y  Report Upon T r a n s i t (Mass T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) , Vancouver, B.C. Vancouver Town P l a n n i n g Commission, 1945,, p. 8. I n t e r n a t i o n a l Downtown E x e c u t i v e s 1 A s s o c i a t i o n , "Downtown P h y s i c a l Improvements Survey", Vancouver, B.C.,1968 (12) x ' T e c h n i c a l P l a n n i n g Board, The M e t r o p o l i t a n Core, Vancouver, B.C., C i t y o f Vancouver, 1968. ; 15 .CHAPTER I I TRANSIT TRAVEL ANALYSIS: DERIVATION OF PROBLEMS The problems o f t h i s t h e s i s a r e d e r i v e d from t h r e e b o d i e s o f l i t e r a t u r e ; u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g , g e o g r a p h i c a l l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , and c a s e s t u d i e s o f t h e u r b an s t r u c t u r e o f G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r — p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e l o c a l s t u d i e s f o c u s s e d on t h e r o l e o f t h e c o r e i n t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a as d e f i n e d by i t s r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e metro r e g i o n . T h i s c h a p t e r i s a c t u a l l y d i v i d e d i n t o two p a r t s , t h e f i r s t d e a l i n g w i t h a n a l y t i c a l c o n c e p t s and t o o l s used i n b o t h t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s and s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n a n a l y s i s ; t h e second w i t h e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s o f urban t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o the u r b a n c o r e o f Vancouver. The c o n c l u s i o n s drawn from t h i s c h a p t e r p r o v i d e t h e c o n t e x t f o r p r o b l e m f o r m u l a t i o n and f o r t h e a n a l y s i s o f t r a n s i t p a s s e n g e r t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o t h e c o r e o f Vancouver i n C h a p t e r s I I I and IV. • -PART I A GENERAL SYSTEMS APPROACH TO INTRA-URBAN TRAVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS The g e n e r a l systems approach t o f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n -s h i p s between t h e c o r e and i t s h i n t e r l a n d c o n c e p t u a l i z e s • 1 6 u r b a n s t r u c t u r e as "a s e t o f o b j e c t s , t o g e t h e r w i t h r e l a t i o n s h i p s b etween t h e o b j e c t s and t h e i r a t t r i b u t e s " . ^ I n o t h e r w o r d s , s p e c i a l i z e d a r e a s w i t h i n c i t i e s a r e r e l a t e d t h r o u g h c i r c u l a t i n g movements ( s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n ) and t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s e movements a r e a p r o d u c t o f t h e a t t r i b u t e s o f i n t e r r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s and p l a c e s . T a k i n g t h i s c o n c e p t o f movement f u r t h e r , by a p p l y i n g some p r i n c i p l e s o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , , a f u n c t i o n a l e x p l a n a t i o n o f i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l p a t t e r n s may be a c h i e v e d . The n o t i o n o f c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y o r s p a t i a l i n t e r -d e p e n d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t movement i s a r e s u l t o f a d i r e c t and r e c i p r o c a l s u p p l y - d e m a n d r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n ,or among p l a c e s . The amount and r a n g e o f movement i s t e m p e r e d b y two r e s t r i c t i v e f o r c e s , i n t e r v e n i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s and t r a n s f e r -(2) a b i l i t y . The movement g e n e r a t e d as a r e s u l t o f s u p p l y -demand l i n k a g e s i s i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d t o i n t e r v e n i n g s o u r c e s o f s u p p l y ( o r demand) and t o t h e " f r i c t i o n " o f d i s t a n c e ( f u n c t i o n a l l y m e a s u r e d i n t e r m s o f c o s t , t i m e , i n c o n v e n i e n c e , o r some o t h e r m e a s u r e ) . O t h e r f u n c t i o n a l l y r e l e v a n t f o r c e s , a r e i d e n t i f i e d and d i s c u s s e d as one a p p r o a c h e s l e s s g e n e r a l c a s e s . M a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s h a v e b e e n d e v e l o p e d i n g e o g r a p h y and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g f i e l d s t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e s e n o t i o n s and t o e x p l a i n o r p r e d i c t i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l p a t t e r n s . The c o n c e p t u a l b a s e s o f t h r e e o f t h e s e 1 7 formulations and t h e i r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are•discussed here,' namely: (1) Gravity models •''.,• ": (2) Intervening Opportunity models (3) Multiple Regression models A de t a i l e d review of the development, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and use of these models i s relegated to Appendix I. In t h i s chapter a concise review of the aims and scope of these models i s presented, A l l three models have been used i n comprehensive urban transportation studies i n major metropolitan areas i n (3) ' " • North America. The gravity and opportunity model are t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n models, used for pr e d i c t i n g inter-zonal movement. The multiple regression model i s pr i m a r i l y a t r i p generation model which accounts for the volume of t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g i n a given area. I t can also be used as a t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n model, by accounting for the number.of t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g i n one area and destined to another area. As urban transportation planning models, a l l the above have been developed p r i m a r i l y to p r e d i c t intra-urban t r a v e l for some designated future period. These predictions are then used as the basis for decisions to al l o c a t e public funds to transportation f a c i l i t y improvements. The goal of these models i s to achieve the most accurate p r e d i c t i o n of t r i p generation and d i s t r i b u t i o n with the l e a s t expenditure 18 of time and money as possible. Transportation planning models such as these do not generally concern themselves with rigorous s c i e n t i f i c research design or t e s t i n g for 'general explanation' of urban t r a v e l pattern phenomena, (4) although t h i s i s changing. Nonetheless they have been developed from ' t h e o r e t i c a l ' notions of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , and from demand studies of factors a f f e c t i n g mass t r a v e l behaviour. 1) Gravity Model The gravity model i s based on the hypothesis that the amount df i n t e r a c t i o n between two areas varies d i r e c t l y with the size of the mass of the areas and inversely with the (5) distance which separates them. This hypothesis i m p l i c i t l y 'incorporates both the notions of complementarity and t r a n s f e r a b i l i t y . From the point.of view of urban structure, the gravity model implies that as one moves away from the urban core, the amount of complementary i n t e r a c t i o n w i l l decline as a function of d e c l i n i n g population and increasing distance. 2) The Intervening Opportunity Model The intervening opportunity model i s based on the concept "that the number of people going a given distance i s not a function of distance but rather a function of the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of opportunities". The model"'thus 19 interprets s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n as a complementary r e l a t i o n -ship between opportunities, the amount of i n t e r a c t i o n being d i r e c t l y proportional to the opportunities at a given distance and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities. An example would be shopping t r i p s to the core from suburban r e s i d e n t i a l areas being attracted and absorbed by an intervening shopping complex. It has been found that an a u x i l i a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between the number of opportunities at a given distance and distance i t s e l f . Empirical studies of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n have found that intervening opportunities and distance vary together, and i t has been argued that there i s thus l i t t l e d i f ference between the opportunity model and the gravity model. ^  ^ * • -Mathematical formulations developed for both models r e l y heavily on i t e r a t i v e processes and the use of adjustment factors and exponents to obtain 'good f i t ' equations. Although e f f e c t i v e procedures have been developed to f i t empirical data to the models, neither model has been able to unambiguously d i f f e r e n t i a t e between the influence of distance and intervening opportunity on t r a v e l patterns. This problem, however, has not concerned the p r a c t i c a l users of these models. However, because of problems of a p p l i c a t i o n associated with the opportunity model, the gravity model has been more widely applied. I t has also been developed to 20 i n c o r p o r a t e s u r r o g a t e c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y m e a s u r e s , . a s w e l l as w e i g h t s f o r t h e s e m e a s u r e s w h i c h a f f e c t t h e p r o p e n s i t y f o r i n t e r a c t i o n o f t h e m a s s e s . 3) M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n T e c h n i q u e s and t h e Use o f T r a v e l Demand V a r i a b l e s F u n c t i o n a l e x p l a n a t i o n s o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n r e q u i r e t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f f a c t o r s o r f o r c e s i n h e r e n t i n , o r c a u s i n g movement. The n o t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g t h e g r a v i t y and o p p o r t u n i t y m o d e l s s e r v e t o i s o l a t e some o f t h e s e f o r c e s and p r o v i d e g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s o f mass b e h a v i o u r . B u t b o t h m o d e l s r e l y on i t e r a t i v e e q u a t i o n f i t t i n g p r o c e d u r e s and a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r s w h i c h a r e i n e f f e c t e r r o r t e r m s , t o a c c o u n t f o r ' u n e x p l a i n e d ' v a r i a t i o n o u t s i d e o f t h e c o n c e p t u a l p a r a m e t e r s o f t h e m o d e l s . A s i m i l a r b reakdown o f h i g h l y g e n e r a l i z e d u r b a n s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e m o d e l s i s p o i n t e d o u t i n t h e r e v i e w o f c a s e s t u d i e s o f t h e V a n c o u v e r u r b a n a r e a i n P a r t I I . The m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e n e e d n o t be b a s e d on a p r i o r i t h e o r y , b u t c a n be a means o f m e a s u r i n g a s s o c i a t i o n b e t w e e n a g r o u p o f v a r i a b l e s t a k e n t o g e t h e r , and some f a c t o r w h i c h i s b e i n g e x p l a i n e d i n t e r m s o f i t s a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h t h e s e v a r i a b l e s . The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s i n u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s u s u a l l y r e l a t e d t o c o n c e p t u a l n o t i o n s o f b o t h s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n and demand considerations. (For a d e s c r i p t i o n of the'technique, r e f e r to Appendix I ) . ' , . Factors associated with urban t r a v e l patterns which could be quantified and incorporated i n estimating equations using regression procedures were f i r s t systematically i d e n t i f i e d by M i t c h e l l and Rapkin, who i n i t i a t e d the discussion of urban t r a f f i c as a function of land use (8) a c t i v i t y systems. Several factors r e l a t i n g to the s i z e and character of,land use and of transportation systems were found to have constant and measurable r e l a t i o n s h i p s with urban t r a v e l patterns. Voorhees 1 early work with the gravity model followed s i m i l a r procedures as M i t c h e l l and Rapkin. For example, he introduced surrogate (or substitute) measures representative of land use a c t i v i t i e s into R e i l l y ' s law of r e t a i l g r a v i t a t i o n for explaining and p r e d i c t i n g t r a v e l (9) patterns to commercial centres i n c i t i e s . E s s e n t i a l l y , the outcome of t h i s approach to modeling intra-urban t r a v e l patterns was the development of better gravity models, by incorporating more representative measures of the complementarity of the i n t e r a c t i n g masses. Oi and Shuldiner went one step further and i s o l a t e d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of r e s i d e n t i a l areas which affected the propensity of an area to produce t r i p s of'given types. They categorized t r i p s into production-oriented t r i p s and consumption-oriented t r i p s . While they recognized that work 22 t r i p s (production) generated between two areas would be a function of the complementary r e l a t i o n s h i p between o r i g i n zone labour force and destination zone employment opportunities, they also indicated that c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the r e s i d e n t i a l areas that a f f e c t t r a v e l demand also operated i n determining the amount of t r i p s between the two areas. S i g n i f i c a n t here was the a v a i l a b i l i t y of automobiles and socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the population. These surrogate demand factors were found to be even more important for consumption-oriented t r i p s such as shopping or recreation t r i p s . Multiple regression techniques have been used to account for these 'forces'. A t y p i c a l example of such a model i s the United States Bureau of Public Roads gravity model, which remains as a gravity model by the i n c l u s i o n of a r e c i p r o c a l distance factor. Other multiple regression models do not place distance i n such an important p o s i t i o n , but simply tr e a t i t as another v a r i a b l e . The work of the above authors and many others i n transportation studies throughout North America and Europe has resulted i n the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and use of a large number of variables found to be associated with t r i p generation for r e s i d e n t i a l areas, non-residential areas and for modal s p l i t . ( 1 2 ) Modal s p l i t i s treated below as a s p e c i a l case of the discussion of factors a f f e c t i n g t r a v e l demand. In t h i s part 23 o f the d i s c u s s i o n , we are o n l y concerned w i t h t r i p g e n e r a t i o n and riot the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t r i p s . Modal s p l i t r e f e r s t o procedures used t o a l l o c a t e i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l t o p u b l i c mass t r a n s i t and p r i v a t e automobile. As i n o t h e r t r i p g e n e r a t i o n models, m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n procedures are o f t e n used. A d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n of t y p i c a l models and the v a r i a b l e s i n c o r p o r a t e d i s p r o v i d e d i n Appendix I. Modal s p l i t models focus on the concept of c a p t i v e and c h o i c e r i d e r s i n e x p l a i n i n g the use o f t r a n s i t by urban t r a v e l e r s . C a p t i v e r i d e r s have no a l t e r n a t e means o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , which i n e f f e c t means they do not have the use o f an automobile. Area c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , such as automobile ownership o r income, have been found t o p r o v i d e (13) the b e s t e x p l a n a t i o n of t r a n s i t t r i p s generated. Below a c e r t a i n income, f a m i l i e s do not own automobiles and t r i p makers must use p u b l i c t r a n s i t . People t o o o l d or too young to d r i v e , and wives whose husbands use the f a m i l y c a r , are a l s o c a p t i v e t r a n s i t r i d e r s . Choice t r a n s i t r i d e r s , those who have a l t e r n a t e means of t r a v e l but chose t r a n s i t , are found t o be a f f e c t e d by t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , p a r t i c u l a r l y time and convenience (excess t r a v e l t i m e ) . I m p l i c a t i o n s o f P a r t I In t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l p a t t e r n s are u s u a l l y looked a t as the r e s u l t o f s y s t e m a t i c f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between 24 a c t i v i t i e s located i n d i f f e r e n t parts of the urban area. Transportation planning models were discussed, and t h e i r role i n explaining s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n was indicated. The gravity arid intervening opportunity model were found to be able to incorporate some of the e s s e n t i a l basic forces operating i n structuring urban t r a v e l patterns—complementarity, i n t e r -vening opportunity and distance decay. However, both these models were conceptually l i m i t e d i n t h e i r o r i g i n a l formula-tion s , and the i n t e r p r e t i v e d i f f i c u l t y i n breaking the a u x i l i a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p between distance and intervening opportunity was made evident. A discussion of other factors associated with, and causally related to, t r a v e l demand pointed out that the three c l a s s i c a l p r i n c i p l e s of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n did not i n f a c t account for a l l forces structuring s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . S p e c i f i c a t t r i b u t e s of complementary masses were also found s i g n i f i c a n t i n explaining t r a v e l patterns. While these three p r i n c i p l e s serve to describe some important r e l a t i o n s h i p s underlying s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , they break down somewhat i n a p p l i c a t i o n . This does not however destroy t h e i r value, but merely places some l i m i t a t i o n s on them as one approaches and t r i e s to explain less general cases or problems. On another l e v e l , the discussion i n Part I has served to indicate several factors which w i l l s p e c i f i c a l l y a f f e c t bus passenger t r a v e l patterns. These'include forces or 25 factors representing the now f a m i l i a r notions of complementarity, intervening opportunity, t r a n s f e r a b i l i t y and demand functions. S p e c i f i c a l l y , we are concerned with the i s o l a t i o n of variables representative of i n t e r a c t i n g masses, intervening opportunities, distance measures and also surrogate measures of t r a v e l demand, notably income and automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y . PART II THE URBAN STRUCTURE OF GREATER VANCOUVER AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSIT TRAVEL PATTERNS TO THE CORE The metropolitan area of Greater Vancouver has been the subject of several investigations designed to t e s t notions of urban form and structure which have been advanced i n geographical l i t e r a t u r e . Five of these case studies focus on the role of the urban core and aspects of i t s (14) s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s with the metropolitan area. A recent paper by Walter Hardwick summarizes the findings of these studies i n the form of a new model, which describes the urban pattern of Greater Vancouver. Case studies have shown that t h i s area does not conform to t r a d i t i o n a l urban pattern models but rather to what Hardwick has c a l l e d a 'core-ring' model. 26 The 'core-ring' model i s composed of two ' c o n c e n t r i c rings. The centre r i n g i s a r a d i a l l y organized r i n g focussed on the t r a d i t i o n a l c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t ; the second and outer r i n g i s a c i r c u m f e r e n t i a l l y organized urbanized area composed of a series of interconnected communities and work places . . . by d e f i n i t i o n there i s more i n t e r a c t i o n within each system than between them.(16) The inner r i n g i s comprised of the City of Vancouver, North Vancouver D i s t r i c t and West Vancouver. The peripheral system includes New Westminster and the suburban m u n i c i p a l i t i e s of Burnaby, Richmond, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Surrey and Delta. The t r a n s i t system providing mass t r a n s i t services i n the Greater Vancouver area serves both the inner and peripheral systems. These case studies and t h e i r findings are reviewed here to indicate r e l a t i o n s h i p s which may a f f e c t bus passenger t r a v e l patterns. 1) journey to Work Studies i n Vancouver Two studies of journey to work i n the Vancouver area have been done; Wolforth's Residential Location and Place of Work, and Hickman's Peripheral Journey to Work i n Vancouver. Wolforth found that the Vancouver area i s r a d i a l l y segregated i n terms of socio-economic patterns of residence, and journeys to work to the core area r e f l e c t t h i s pattern, with the downtown labour catchment being biased towards the western sector of the metropolitan area. (West Vancouver and Point Grey). This pattern was considered as a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e h i g h e r income n a t u r e o f most downtown o f f i c e j o b s and t h e h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e w e s t e r n s e c t o r o f t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , where f a v o u r a b l e s i t e c o n d i t i o n s have r e s u l t e d i n h i g h income n e i g h b o u r h o o d s . Low income downtown w o r k e r s i n t h e c l e r i c a l and s e r v i c e g r o u p s were drawn f r o m t h e e a s t e r n p o r t i o n o f t h e c i t y (Main S t r e e t t o B o u n d a r y Road) and f r o m t h e h i g h d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l (West End) a r e a w h i c h i s a d j a c e n t t o t h e c o r e . The f o r m e r a r e a had r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n s o f i t s t o t a l r e s i d e n t i a l ' p o p u l a t i o n w o r k i n g . downtown, e v e n i n t h o s e p a r t s w h i c h a r e i m m e d i a t e l y a d j a c e n t t o t h e u r b a n c o r e . D i f f e r e n t i a t i o n o f l a b o u r c a t c h m e n t a r e a s o c c u r r e d f o r a r e a s w i t h i n t h e c o r e ; f o r example t h e w e s t e r n p a r t o f t h e c o r e had i t s l a b o u r c a t c h m e n t a r e a o r i e n t e d even more t o t h e w e s t , and ' e a s t e r n p a r t s had a l a b o u r c a t c h m e n t a r e a o r i e n t e d t o t h e e a s t . W o l f o r t h was n o t c o n c e r n e d w i t h moda l s p l i t , b u t he s u g g e s t e d t h a t l ow income a r e a s w o u l d have a h e a v i e r r e l i a n c e on p u b l i c t r a n s i t . A l t h o u g h much o f t h e f i n d i n g s o f h i s s t u d y were drawn f r o m a s t u d y o f a u t o m o b i l e t r i p s t o downtown p a r k i n g l o t s , i t was assumed t h a t t h e p a t t e r n o f w o r k -r e s i d e n c e l o c a t i o n h e l d i r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e t r a n s i t r i d i n g , i n v i e w o f t h e h i g h p e r c a p i t a c a r o w n e r s h i p t h r o u g h o u t t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a . The o b j e c t i v e o f H i c k m a n ' s s t u d y o f t h e p e r i p h e r a l j o u r n e y t o work was t o d e t e r m i n e t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f 28 p e r i p h e r a l l y destined work journeys as compared to those destined to Vancouver's central, .core i n the o v e r a l l metropolitan t r a f f i c p i c t u re. The l e v e l of analysis and areas"chosen to substantiate the hypothesis that peripheral work journeys are increasingly important i n the t r a v e l patterns of metropolitan residents was quite l i m i t e d . Hickman's research indicated that the proportion of cen t r a l area, workers per r e s i d e n t i a l area drops o f f with . distance from the C;B.D., but not without considerable v a r i a t i o n , which was considered suggestive of other s t r u c t u r a l factors. Work journey commuting i n the Vancouver c i t y and Burnaby areas was 60 per cent oriented towards the core area and i t s adjacent i n d u s t r i a l employment areas, while the remaining 4 0 per cent was scattered to numerous peripheral work place concentrations. Other findings r e f l e c t and substantiate those of Wolforth. 2) C.B.D. Shopping Studies i n Vancouver Three studies of relevance to the analysis of shopping t r i p s by bus t r a n s i t t r i p s to Vancouver's core area have been (17) done. x ' Two of these indicate the range of r e t a i l shopping influence of the C.B.D. (as a whole and various sectors within i t ) over the metropolitan area. Roger Leigh 1s Specialty R e t a i l i n g — A Geographic Analysis uses the Vancouver area as a case study to demonstrate that t r a d i t i o n a l marketing geography interpretations, of spe c i a l t y 29 r e t a i l market areas and locations and does not explain the Vancouver area case. He tests and dismisses the generaliza-t i o n that high order r e t a i l stores have a 'C.B.D. lo c a t i o n ' and a 'city-wide market'. Of importance to t h i s thesis are Leigh's concluding comments on the ro l e of the C.B.D. as the s p e c i a l t y r e t a i l i n g centre within an urban area, i n t h i s case the Vancouver area. Recency i n de c e n t r a l i z a t i o n of high order stores coincided with improvements i n customer mobility i n the C i t y . This'was interpreted to mean that i n the contemporary c i t y the C.B.D. market place has l o s t i t s a c c e s s i b i l i t y monopoly. The c l u s t e r i n g of high order businesses i n the "inner c i t y " (between the C.B.D. and south-western suburbs) tends to confirm the suggestion that t h i s a c c e s s i b i l i t y advantage i s now shared by a t e r r i t o r i a l l y wider area of the c i t y ; i n short, the C.B.D. market place i s replaced by an inner c i t y "market area" within which there are several locations equally accessible to customers i n non-contiguous r e s i d e n t i a l d i s t r i c t s . (19.) The s i g n i f i c a n c e of t h i s study to the analysis of person t r i p s to the Vancouver core by public t r a n s i t for purposes of shopping i s that the core area does not have a monopoly lo c a t i o n for spe c i a l t y r e t a i l i n g . Leigh's study d i d not separate t r a n s i t from automobile users i n reaching his conclusions, and his findings regarding the importance of the core may not hold for t r a n s i t r i d e r s , e s p e c i a l l y since the t r a n s i t system i s a core oriented system. A. This study leads into a subsequent paper produced by Hardwick and Leigh, which examined the market areas of the three major department stores located i n downtown Vancouver. 30 W h i l e t h e e a r l i e r s t u d y p o i n t e d o u t t h e d e c l i n e i n r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e C . B . D . as t h e . o n l y s p e c i a l t y r e t a i l i n g a r e a i n t h e V a n c o u v e r m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , t h e l a t t e r s t u d y i n d i c a t e d t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e C . B . D . as a m e t r o p o l i t a n s h o p p i n g c e n t r e and t h e n a t u r e o f i t s r e t a i l i n f l u e n c e . The Geography o f C e n t r a l R e t a i l i n g r e v i e w s t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s t r u c t s w h i c h have been u sed t o i n t e r p r e t t h e r o l e o f t h e C . B . D . i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e s p a t i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n o f i n t r a -c i t y r e t a i l t r a d e — p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e rms o f e c o l o g i c a l t h e o r y and c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r y : 1) E c o l o g i c a l t h e o r y , i n b r i e f , " s t r e s s e s t h a t t h e c o r e i s t h e c e n t r e o f t h e c i t y by v i r t u e o f i t s h i s t o r i c a l o r i g i n s and p o s i t i o n a t t h e f o c u s o f m a j o r r o u t e w a y s . . . t h e p o i n t o f minimum a g g r e g a t e t r a v e l " . ( 2 0 ) From s u c h a c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s t o r e s command a c i t y - w i d e m a r k e t . 2) I n t e r m s o f c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r y " b a s e d on t h e n o t i o n t h a t demands f o r v a r i o u s goods o c c u r w i t h d i f f e r i n g f r e q u e n c y among h o u s e h o l d s " . . . l e a d i n g t o a . . . h i e r a r c h y o f s e r v i c e c e n t r e s . . . w i t h f r e q u e n t l y demanded s e r v i c e s s u p p l i e d by u b i q u i t o u s ' l o w o r d e r ' c e n t r e s s e r v i n g l o c a l h i n t e r l a n d s . . . and . •'. . i n f r e q u e n t l y demand goods d i s t r i b u t e d t h r o u g h f e w e r h i g h o r d e r c e n t r e s , whose l a r g e r h i n t e r l a n d s embrace n e s t s o f l o w e r o r d e r h i n t e r l a n d s " , ( 2 1 ) t h e C . B . D . i s t h e r e t a i l l o c a t i o n f o r i n f r e q u e n t l y p u r c h a s e d g o o d s . B o t h t h e o r i e s s u p p o r t t h e n o t i o n t h a t t h e C . B . D . ' s r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s , t y p i c a l l y d e p a r t m e n t s t o r e s and s p e c i a l t y r e t a i l s , s e r v e a c i t y - w i d e m a r k e t . 3) A g g l o m e r a t i o n e c o n o m i e s a r e a l s o i n d i c a t e d as b e i n g i m p o r t a n t t o t h e d o m i n a n t r o l e o f t h e C . B . D . ( 2 2 ) The c l u s t e r i n g o f r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s combines t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l a t t r a c t i v e f o r c e s by p r o v i d i n g t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r c o m p a r i s o n 31 s h o p p i n g , w h i l e t h e p r o x i m i t y o f ' o t h e r c o r e a c t i v i t i e s p r o v i d e s maximum c o n v e n i e n c e f o r c o n s u m e r s t o r e a l i z e s e v e r a l t r i p p u r p o s e s w h i l e d o w n t o w n . T h e l a r g e downtown l a b o u r f o r c e a l s o s u p p o r t s C . B . D . r e t a i l i n g a c t i v i t i e s . A l l t h e s e f a c t o r s s u g g e s t t h e c o n t i n u a n c e o f a s t r o n g r e t a i l f u n c t i o n w i t h i n t h e c o r e a r e a , w h i l e g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s e x p r e s s i n g C . B . D . d o m i n a n c e f o r s p e c i a l i z e d r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s ( s p e c i a l t y r e t a i l i n g a n d l a r g e d e p a r t m e n t s t o r e s ) s u g g e s t t h e C . B . D . d r a w s c u s t o m e r s f r o m a c i t y - w i d e m a r k e t a n d i s d o m i n a n t w i t h i n t h i s m a r k e t . H a r d w i c k a n d L e i g h a l s o p o i n t o u t t h e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d n a t u r e o f c o r e a r e a l a n d u s e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o r e t a i l s t o r e t y p e a n d q u a l i t y . A r e a s w i t h i n t h e C . B . D . d e m o n s t r a t e g r o u p i n g s o f r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s w i t h d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f q u a l i t y w h i c h c a t e r t o d i f f e r e n t c o n s u m e r g r o u p s who i n t u r n a r e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d b y t h e i r s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I t h a s a l r e a d y b e e n p o i n t e d o u t i n t h e r e v i e w o f W o l f o r t h ' s s t u d y t h a t V a n c o u v e r i s c o m p r i s e d o f s e c t o r s o f s o c i o - e c o n o m i c r e s i d e n t i a l g r o u p i n g s , a n d t h a t c e r t a i n p a r t s o f t h e c o r e w e r e o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s c e r t a i n s e c t o r s — w e s t t o w e s t , a n d e a s t t o e a s t f o r w o r k - j o u r n e y p u r p o s e s . T a k i n g t h i s f u r t h e r , H a r d w i c k a n d L e i g h p r o p o s e d t h a t c e r t a i n a r e a s o f t h e C . B . D . c a t e r t o c e r t a i n a r e a s o f t h e c i t y i n r e t a i l t e r m s a l s o . On t h i s b a s i s t h e r e l e v a n c e o f n o t i o n s o f c i t y - w i d e d o m i n a n c e b y a h o m o g e n e o u s C . B . D . i s q u e s t i o n e d . A number o f h y p o t h e s e s w e r e a d v a n c e d f o r t e s t i n g — t w o of which are relevant to a study of t r a n s i t t r a v e l patterns to the C.B.D. . "Hypothesis I. C.B.D. stores have morphologically s e c t o r a l , not city-wide hinterlands . . . oriented towards s o c i a l l y d i s t i n c t i v e and t e r r i t o r i a l l y l o c a l i z e d groups within the city."(23) "Hypothesis IV. Groups of stores ( i . e . i d e n t i f i a b l e C.B.D. sub-areas)exhibit s e c t i o n a l l y defined hinterlands since stores appealing to s i m i l a r customer types tend, to c l u s t e r together to f a c i l i t a t e competitive and comparative shopping by customers."(24) Using f i v e data source including store records, in-store surveys and a home interview survey, shopping t r i p patterns to the C.B.D. were investigated. The three major department stores i n downtown Vancouver were chosen as the major representative shopping destinations. One store, the Hudson Bay Company, was found to be oriented towards upper income groups, while another, Woodward's, was oriented towards lowe income groups. The t h i r d , the T. Eaton Company, was discovered to be between the two extremes. This o r i e n t a t i o n can be expressed not only i n terms of product and pri c e marketing o r i e n t a t i o n , but i n terms of lo c a t i o n within the C.B.D. The Bay i s located i n the western portion of the C.B.D. at Georgia and Gr a n v i l l e S t r e e t s — t h e l a t t e r being a major a r t e r i a l from upper income suburbs. Woodward's i s i n the older eastern portion of the C.B.D. and i s on Hastings Street, a d i r e c t l i n k to lower income suburbs. Eaton's i s located between the two and i t s l o c a t i o n favours neither the (25) lower income or upper income more than the other. • " ' ' 3 3 " Findings from the surveys indicated'that the stores' were not drawing customers evenly from across the metropolitan area, as the t r a d i t i o n a l notions of urban r e t a i l structure ' ' • ( 2 6 ) suggested. The Gr a n v i l l e Street axis (including the Bay) showed d e f i n i t e o r i e n t a t i o n to the higher income western portion of the metropolitan area. The Hastings Street axis (Eaton's and Woodward's) drew customers more evenly from the Cit y of Vancouver, suggesting t h i s area's conformance to the i d e a l ' c i t y serving-' role of the C.B.D. Of greater importance for the Hastings axis was that i t s market area tended to be structured by distance rather than s o c i a l c l a s s , yet there was a higher proportion of lower class customers to t h i s area. By r e f i n i n g the analysis, Hardwick and Leigh indicated that the C.B.D. hinterland consisted of an inner and outer r i n g . The inner r i n g had a high proportion of customer o r i g i n s per residence up to the l i m i t of the f i v e mile r i n g . Beyond f i v e miles, the incidence of customer o r i g i n s was seen (27) to f a l l o f f p r e c i p i t o u s l y . v F i n a l l y "within the f i v e mile zone, t r i p generation and residence does not f a l l o f f regula r l y with distance, but i s apparently concentrated i n d i f f e r e n t zones according to the s o c i a l class appeal of stores and the t e r r i t o r i a l l o c a l i z a t i o n of involved s o c i a l „ (28) groups". In a t h i r d study of shopping t r i p s , R.A. Mackinnon examined 1962 shopping t r i p s by private automobile to the 34 C . B . D . o f V a n c o u v e r . H a v i n g s i m i l a r o b j e c t i v e s as t h e p a p e r s of . W o l f o r t h , H a r d w i c k and L e i g h , . M a c k i n n o n s e a r c h e d f o r f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o t h e v a r i a t i o n o f t r i p o r i g i n s t o t h e C . B . D . and t o d i f f e r e n t p a r t s o f t h e C . B . D . He a t t e m p t e d t o d e s c r i b e t h e s t r u c t u r e o f p a t t e r n s i n t e r m s o f " s u g g e s t i v e c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s . . by s e e k i n g c a u s a l f a c t o r s , and t h u s (29) ' e x p l a i n ' t h e o b s e r v e d p a t t e r n s " . F o r a l l t r i p p u r p o s e s (work 32%, b u s i n e s s 32%, s h o p p i n g 29%, and s o c i a l - r e c r e a t i o n and o t h e r s 7%) t r i p f r e q u e n c i e s r o s e t o a peak a t t h e f i v e m i l e r i n g ( f rom t h e c o r e ) t h e n d e c l i n e i n t h e o u t e r r i n g s . ^ 3 0 ^ The s h o p p i n g t r i p p a t t e r n s t a r t e d a t a l o w l e v e l , i n c r e a s e d a t one m i l e d i s t a n c e , d e c r e a s e d i n t h e two m i l e r i n g , t h e n i n c r e a s e d t o t h e f i v e m i l e r i n g and d r o p p e d o f f . V a r r i a t i o n i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f s h o p p i n g t r i p p a t t e r n s r e f l e c t e d v a r i a t i o n i n income l e v e l s , as i n d i c a t e d i n H a r d w i c k and L e i g h ' s s t u d y . T h i s was t e s t e d u s i n g r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s . S t e p w i s e r e g r e s s i o n was employed by M a c k i n n o n t o ' e x p l a i n ' t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a u t o m o b i l e s h o p p i n g t r i p g e n e r a t i o n r a t e s f r o m o r i g i n zones t o t h e C . B . D . T h r e e v a r i a b l e s were s e l e c t e d : p e r c a p i t a income o f s h o p p i n g zone p o p u l a t i o n , l o g o f d i s t a n c e t o t h e V a n c o u v e r C . B . D . , and d i s t a n c e t o n e a r e s t c o m p e t i n g c e n t r e . S i x t y - t h r e e p e r c e n t o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e s h o p p i n g t r i p s was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v a r i a t i o n i n t h e s e t h r e e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , w i t h p e r ' 35 . capita income providing 39 per cent, distance to C.B.D, providing 14 per cent and distance to the nearest competing (31) centres 10 per cent. Lack of availa b l e data l i m i t e d further search for independent va r i a b l e s . The second l e v e l of Mackinnon's examination of automobile shopping t r i p patterns dealt with v a r i a t i o n s i n these t r i p patterns to various parts of the C.B.D. Again income and distance v a r i a t i o n i n o r i g i n zones was re l a t e d to sub-areas of the C.B.D. He established that higher income areas are more important to the Bay and Eaton's areas, and less important to the Woodward's area within the C.B.D. Mackinnon's study was done concurrently with Hardwick and Leigh's analysis of C.B.D. r e t a i l i n g . Using d i f f e r e n t data sources, s i m i l a r findings r e s u l t e d — s u g g e s t i n g that these findings describe the actual r e l a t i o n s h i p s of Vancouver's C.B.D., and i t s various sub-parts, with i t s hinterland or i t s various parts. Implications of Part II Travel patterns to the core area of Greater Vancouver seem to form a core-ring pattern, with an inner r i n g of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n focussed on the core. This r i n g includes the C i t i e s of Vancouver and North Vancouver and the Municipality of West Vancouver. Within t h i s r i n g , t r i p s are r a d i a l l y organized from generally homogeneous r e s i d e n t i a l neighbourhoods (homogeneous i n terms of socio-economic 36 c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ) . Work t r i p s to the core have a westward* o r i e n t a t i o n , while shoppers are = drawn more consistently .throughout the Vancouver area, with some v a r i a t i o n a t t r i b u t a b l e to socio-economic and intervening opportunity factors. A breakdown of the core into r e t a i l a c t i v i t y sub-areas, however, indicated that the western r e t a i l nucleus within the core had a westward bias, and the eastern nucleus had an eastward bias r e f l e c t i n g socio-economic v a r i a t i o n of the functions of the core area and i n the patterning of i t s hinterland. In Part.I of t h i s chapter, a review of concepts and models of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n indicated that s p a t i a l i n t e r -action could be modelled by the use of surrogate variables Representing functional r e l a t i o n s h i p s between a c t i v i t i e s and locations. In Part II a review of case studies of the urban pattern of Greater Vancouver indicated some of these forces work i n structuring t r a v e l patterns to the core area of t h i s c i t y . Both reviews demonstrated progress i n the search for explanations of urban structure and the s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s r e s u l t i n g from t h i s structure. Both f i e l d s have moved away from simple generalizations based on distance decay and intervening opportunity concepts, to the i n c l u s i o n of socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t r i p makers and t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l areas i n f u n c t i o n a l l y relevant model formulations. .. 37 FORMULATION OF PROBLEMS '• From t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n t h i s c h a p t e r , t h e p r o b l e m s o f . t h i s t h e s i s c a n be more s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r m u l a t e d . The p r o b l e m s aire t r e a t e d i n C h a p t e r s I I I and IV. C h a p t e r I I I d e a l s w i t h a g e n e r a l d e s c r i p t i o n o f s p a t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f bus p a s s e n g e r t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o t h e c o r e , f o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f work and s h o p p i n g . C h a p t e r I V d e v e l o p s a m u l t i p l e l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n m odel t o e x p l a i n t h e s e p a t t e r n s i n t e r m s o f s u r r o g a t e v a r i a b l e s - r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n -s h i p s . The r e v i e w o f c a s e s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o t h e c o r e a r e s t r u c t u r e d p r i m a r i l y b y d i s t a n c e and by d i r e c t i o n a l o r i e n t a t i o n t o r a d i a l l y o r g a n i z e d r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s o f d i f f e r e n t s o c i a l t y p e s . The q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r t h e s e c a s e s t u d y f i n d i n g s a r e t e n a b l e i n a l s o d e s c r i b i n g bus p a s s e n g e r t r a v e l p a t t e r n s i s t h e o v e r r i d i n g programme o f C h a p t e r I I I . T h e s e e x p e c t a t i o n s c a n be e x p r e s s e d r as: 1) Bus p a s s e n g e r t r a v e l w i l l be " c o r e - o r i e n t e d " w i t h i n t h e i n n e r c o r e r i n g s y s t e m c o m p r i s e d o f N o r t h V a n c o u v e r and V a n c o u v e r (West V a n c o u v e r was n o t s u r v e y e d ; i t i s s e r v e d by a s e p a r a t e company). i t 2) Bus p a s s e n g e r t r a v e l t o t h e c o r e i s e x p e c t e d t o d e c l i n e w i t h d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e c o r e and e s p e c i a l l y t o d r o p o f f v e r y r a p i d l y b e y o n d t h e i n n e r s y s t e m (beyond f i v e m i l e s ) . 38 3) Transit work t r i p generation to the core w i l l be subject to socio-economic v a r i a t i o n within the inner core r i n g . Ah eastward o r i e n t a t i o n of the downtown core i s expected. This i s the reverse of o r i e n t a t i o n of the core for t r i p s by a l l modes, but i t i s expected that lower income areas w i l l generate more core destined t r i p s per capita than higher income western areas. 4) Shopping .trip patterns are expected to be more constant throughout the inner r i n g , i n d i c a t i n g continued downtown business d i s t r i c t (C.B.D.) dominance (as a r e t a i l complex) within t h i s r i n g . 5) Sub-areas of the downtown core are expected to have sect o r a l o r i e n t a t i o n of t r i p patterns, with eastern areas of the core oriented to low income r e s i d e n t i a l areas and western areas of the core oriented to high income r e s i d e n t i a l areas. These patterns are expected for both work and shopping t r i p s . These expected r e l a t i o n s h i p s are i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter III and tested further i n Chapter IV. A de t a i l e d discussion of variables used i n model b u i l d i n g and expected re l a t i o n s h i p s w i l l be presented i n the introduction to t h i s l a t e r chapter. 39 FOOTNOTES " ' ' ^ H a g g e t t , P e t e r . "On Systems and M o d e l s " , C h a p t e r I , I I I , L b c a t i o n a l A n a l y s i s i n Human G e o g r a p h y , Edward A r n o l d , L o n d o n , 1 9 6 5 , p . 1 7 . (2) U l l m a n , E . "The R o l e o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and t h e Bases f o r I n t e r a c t i o n " , i n M a n ' s R o l e i n C h a n g i n g t h e Face o f t h e E a r t h , W i l l i a m L . Thomas, J r . , e d . , U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , C h i c a g o , 1956 , p p . 8 6 2 - 8 0 . (3) Z e t t e l , R i c h a r d M . , and C a r l , R i c h a r d R. Summary  R e v i e w o f M a j o r M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d i e s i n  t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , The I n s t i t u t e o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y , 1962, (4) R e f e r t o l a t e 1960 p u b l i c a t i o n s o f t h e Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d : Highway R e s e a r c h R e c o r d and N a t i o n a l  C o - o p e r a t i v e Highway R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m R e p o r t s . (5) L u k e r m a n , F r e d , and P o r t e r , P . W . " G r a v i t y and P o t e n t i a l M o d e l s i n E c o n o m i c G e o g r a p h y " , A n n u a l s , A s s o c i a t i o n o f A m e r i c a n G e o g r a p h e r s , V o l . 5 0 , 1960 , p p . 4 9 3 - 5 0 4 . ( 6 ) I b i d . v ' S t a r k i e , D . M . N . , T r a f f i c and I n d u s t r y : A S t u d y o f  T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n and S p a t i a l I n t e r a c t i o n , G e o g r a p h i c a l P a p e r s #3, London S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s and P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , L o n d o n , J u n e , 1968 . _ (8) M i t c h e l l , R o b e r t R . , and R a p k i n , C h e s t e r , U r b a n  T r a f f i c : A F u n c t i o n o f Land U s e , C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , New Y o r k , 1954 . (9) v ' V o o r h e e s , A . M . , " A G e n e r a l T h e o r y o f T r a f f i c M o v e m e n t " , 1955 P r o c e e d i n g s , I n s t i t u t e o f T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r s , 1 9 5 5 , p p . 4 6 - 5 6 . ^ 1 0 ^ O i , W a l t e r Y . , and S h u l d i n e r , P a u l W . , An A n a l y s i s o f U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Demands, T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C e n t r e , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , E v a n s t o n , 1 9 6 2 . O v e r g a a r d , K . R a s k , T r a f f i c E s t i m a t i o n i n U r b a n  T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g . A c t a P o l y t e c h n i c a S c a n d i n a v i c a , C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g and B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n S e r i e s N o . 3 7 , Copenhagen , 1966 . 40 (12) . P e a t , M a r w i c k , L i v i n g s t o n and Company, P r o j e c t i o n s o f U r b a n P e r s o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Demand, U n i t e d S t a t e s D e p a r t m e n t o f H o u s i n g and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t , W a s h i n g t o n , 1968 . (13) "' F e r t a l , M . J . e t a l , M o d a l S p l i t : D o c u m e n t a t i o n o f N i n e Methods f o r E s t i m a t i n g T r a n s i t U s a g e , U n i t e d ...'States D e p a r t m e n t o f Commerce, B u r e a u o f P u b l i c R o a d s , O f f i c e o f P l a n n i n g , W a s h i n g t o n , 1966 . (14) H a r d w i c k , W . G . and L e i g h , R o g e r . Geography o f  C e n t r a l R e t a i l i n g , u n p u b l i s h e d d r a f t , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , 1965 . H i c k m a n , R. P e r i p h e r a l J o u r n e y t o W o r k , M a s t e r s T h e s i s , D e p a r t m e n t o f Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , 1 9 6 9 . L e i g h , R o g e r . S p e c i a l t y - R e t a i l i n g , A G e o g r a p h i c . A n a l y s i s , B . C . G e o g r a p h i c a l S e r i e s , Number 6 , T a n t a l u s R e s e a r c h L i m i t e d , V a n c o u v e r , 19 66 . M a c k i n n o n , R. A G e o g r a p h i c a l A n a l y s i s o f V e h i c u l a r S h o p p i n g  T r i p s t o t h e V a n c o u v e r C o r e , u n p u b l i s h e d p a p e r , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , 1965 . W o l f o r t h , J o h n . R e s i d e n t i a l L o c a t i o n and t h e P l a c e o f W o r k , B . C . G e o g r a p h i c a l S e r i e s , Number 4 , T a n t a l u s R e s e a r c h L i m i t e d , V a n c o u v e r , 19 6 5 . (15) • H a r d w i c k , W . G . V a n c o u v e r , The Emergence o f New U r b a n P a t t e r n s , u n p u b l i s h e d d r a f t , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , 1 9 6 9 . ( 1 6 ) I b i d . , p . 1 . (17) H a r d w i c k and L e i g h , L e i g h , and M a c k i n n o n , o p . c i t . (18) L e i g h , o p . c i t . , p . 1 1 1 . ( 1 9 ) I b i d . , p . 1 1 2 . 7 ^ 2 ^ H a r d w i c k and L e i g h , o p . c i t . , p . 2 . (21) T , . , , N ' I b i d . , p . 3 . ( 2 2 ) I b i d . , p p . 3 - 4 . ( 2 3 ) I b i d . , p . 1 4 . ( 2 4 ) I b i d . , p . 14 . < 2 5 ) I b i d . , P- 2 8 . < 2 6 ) I b i d . , P- 3 3 . ( 2 7 ) I b i d . , P- 4 1 . ( 2 8 ) I b i d . , P- 4 2 . v ' M a c k i n n o n / op. ( 3 ° ) I b i d ' . , P- 2 . < 3 1 > I b i d . , P- 3 8 . 42 CHAPTER I I I BUS PASSENGER' TRIPS TO THE CORE The p u r p o s e o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o p r e s e n t c a r t o g r a p h i c a l l y and i n t a b u l a r f o r m t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t t e r n s o f work and s h o p p i n g t r i p s t o t h e downtown c o r e , and t o i n t e r p r e t t h e s e p a t t e r n s i n t e r m s o f t h e e x p e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s p r e s e n t e d a t t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f C h a p t e r I I . D a t a on o r i g i n s and d e s t i n a t i o n s o f bus p a s s e n g e r t r i p s was o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Geography D e p a r t m e n t U r b a n C o r e P r o j e c t T r a n s i t S u r v e y c a r r i e d o u t i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a Hydro and Power A u t h o r i t y T r a n s p o r t a t i o n D i v i s i o n i n May 1 9 6 5 . A d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s s u r v e y i s p r o v i d e d i n A p p e n d i x I I . The r e s e a r c h d e s i g n and s u r v e y was c o n d u c t e d p r i o r t o t h e i n v o l v e m e n t o f t h e a u t h o r and t h e r e f o r e i s n o t p r e s e n t e d as a m a j o r p a r t o f t h i s t h e s i s . A l l d a t a i s summar ized t o 65 t r a f f i c z o n e s , 49 o f w h i c h a r e s e r v e d by t h e B . C . H . & P . A . T r a n s i t Sys tem and i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y . (See F i g u r e s 3 , 6 and 7 ) . The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e s e t r a f f i c zones i s d i s c u s s e d i n A p p e n d i x I I I . The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e use o f a r e a l u n i t s s u c h as t r a f f i c zones i n u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s A p p e n d i x and i n C h a p t e r s IV and V . 4 3 S o u r c e : C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t T h r e e a s p e c t s o f b o t h work and s h o p p i n g t r i p , p a t t e r n s a r e a n a l y z e d i n t h i s C h a p t e r : 1) T r a n s i t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n p e r c a p i t a d e s t i n e d ' t o t h e c o r e . ( F i g u r e 8) 2) T r a n s i t t r i p s t o t h e c o r e as a p e r c e n t a g e o f a l l t r i p s g e n e r a t e d i n e a c h z o n e . ( F i g u r e 9) 3) T r a n s i t t r i p p a t t e r n s t o i n d i v i d u a l c o r e z o n e s . ( F i g u r e s 10 and 11) 1) P e r C a p i t a D i s t r i b u t i o n o f T r a n s i t . T r i p s t o t h e C o r e : Bus p a s s e n g e r t r i p s t o t h e c o r e f o r work and s h o p p i n g p u r p o s e s show a d i s t i n c t p a t t e r n o f d i s t a n c e and s e c t o r v a r i a t i o n . ( F i g u r e 8) a) Work T r i p s — T r a f f i c zones w i t h i n t e n t o t w e n t y m i n u t e s t r a v e l t i m e t o t h e c o r e have a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h p e r c a p i t a t r a n s i t v o l u m e . ( T a b l e 1) These zones i n c l u d e t h e West End zones 02 and 0 4 , w i t h 02 h a v i n g t h e h i g h e s t t r a n s i t g e n e r a t i n g r a t e o f a l l z o n e s . Zone 0 4 , w i t h i n w a l k i n g d i s t a n c e o f t h e c o r e , has a l o w e r r a t e . H i g h r a t e zones i n c l u d e i n n e r c i t y d i s t r i c t s o f K i t s i l a n o ( 3 0 ) , A r b u t u s (34) and F a i r v i e w ( 2 3 - 2 9 ) . ' The H a s t i n g s S t r e e t s e c t o r (38-39) a l s o has a h i g h t r a n s i t r i d i n g r a t i o c o m p a r i e d t o w e s t e r n and s o u t h e r n a r e a s o f t h e c i t y . These l a t t e r a r e a s , w h i c h i n c l u d e P o i n t G r e y ( 3 1 ) , Dunbar ( 3 3 ) , K e r r i s d a l e - M a r p o l e (44) , F r a s e r ( 4 3 ) , and t h e S o u t h - e a s t S e c t o r (42) a r e l o w t r a n s i t t r i p g e n e r a t o r s . Burnaby zones have a v e r y l o w p e r c a p i t a 45 TABLE 1 " BUS PASSENGER TRIPS PER ,1,000 ORIGIN ZONE POPULATION TO CORE ZONES TRAFFIC ZONE WORK SHOPPING ZONE POPULATION 02 66 53 15,003 04 38 15 15,194 15-18 15 16 9,543 19-20-26 9 9 3,132 21-25 54 . 30 2,302 23-29 48 33 12,943 24-28 13 10 5,976 27AB 32 18 8,391 30 48 9 32,358 31 37 16 11,222 32 6 9 2,931 33 2 0 14,339 34 38 15 19,728 35A 6 3 '7,941 35B 21 <. 3 16,279 • 36 36 14 14,365 37 27 12 12,967 38 45 10 8,900 39 43 11 18,856 40 27 14 13,299 41 39 20 .33,199 42 27 15 38,600 43 19 6 35,541 44 24 10 40,962 45 17 7 31,195 46 6 2 35,365 47 3 1 41,713 48 1 0 9 ,936 49 0 0 26,951 50 1 0 56,200 51 0 0 1,862 52 2 0 45,755 62 7 2 17,295 63 32 5 11,076 64 29 0 6,415 65 20 5 9,340 66 18 6 8,694 67 8 4 13,480 68 2 1 7,499 T o t a l . 866 384 46 Figure 9 Source: Vancouver Urban Core Trans i t Survey t r a n s i t passenger l i n k with the core for work purposes. ..Areas further.east and south have less than one person per 1,000 residents t r a v e l l i n g by t r a n s i t to Vancouver's "core to work. b) Shopping T r i p s — V a r i a t i o n i n shopping t r i p s per 1,000 residents to the core area i s not as great as that for work t r i p s . Only Zone 02 i n the West End and Fairview Zones 23-29 and 21-25 have a high rate of bus passenger t r a v e l to the core for shopping. Per capita shopping t r i p generation for the remaining zones i s constant and low over most of the ent i r e t r a n s i t service area beyond 15-20 minutes t r a n s i t t r a v e l time from the core. This i s r e f l e c t e d by the modal group for the shopping t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n which i s less than ten t r i p s per 1,000 residents. 2) Trips to the Core Compared With Total Trips Originating  i n Each Zone The focus of the t r a n s i t system on the core, i n d i c a t i n g i t s role as a core-serving system i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figure 9. Work t r i p s by t r a n s i t to the core comprise on the average (mean) 4 3 per cent of a l l work t r i p s generated i n each zone (modal class = 41-50). The pattern for shopping t r i p s i s quite d i f f e r e n t , with an average (mean) of 64 per cent of shopping t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g i n each zone destined to the core (modal class = 91-100). (Table 2) TABLE 2 DISTRIBUTION OF WORK AND SHOPPING BUS PASSENGER TRIPS TO THE CORE AS A PERCENT OF ALL WORK AND SHOPPING BUS PASSENGER TRIPS ORIGINATING IN EACH ZONE ZONE ALL WORK WORK TO CORE % ALL SHOP SHOP TO CORE % 01 - - 26 26 (100) 02 1,570 995 (63) 819 791 (97) 03 558 217 (39) 300 283 (94) 04 993 580 (58) 261 223 (85) 05-06 529 18 (03) 744 150 (20) 07 571 46 (08) 811 379 (47) 08 192 21 (11) 107 38 (36) 09 107 32 (30) 56 19 (34) 10 23 - 24 24 (100) 11-12 26 - 33 21 (64) 13-14 599 32 (06) 1505 630 (42) 15-18 344 143 (43) 172 151 (88) 19-20-26 98 27 (28) 56 28 (50) 21-25 342 125 (37) 210 68 (32) 22 31 - 8 -23-29 1,233 620 (50) 453 424 (94) 24-28 244 76 (34) 118 57 (48) 2 7AB 534 272 (51) 274 150 (55) 30 2,249 1,558 (69) 364 276 (76) 31 664 418 (63) 240 178 (74) 32 98 18 (18) 32 27 (84) 33 193 32 (17) 53 7 (13) 34 1,022 748 (73) 295 287 (97) 35A 116 50 (43) 21 20 (100 35B 619 338 (55) 100 53 (53) 36 1,057 540 (51) 314 207 (66) 37 530 345 (65) 243 155 (64) 38 684 403 (59) 86 85 (100) 39 1,144 803 (70) 225 216 (96) 40 686 361 (53) 310 182 (59) 41 2,419 1,311 (47) 851 677 (80) 42 2,265 1,023 (45) 677 560 (83) 43 1,373 675 (49) 440 224 (51) 44 2,078 998 (48) 622 428 (69) 45 690 523 (76) 222 210 (95) 46 281 212 (75) 75 75 (100) 47 221 107 (48) 79 50 (63) 48 8 8 (100) 9 -49 9 - 4 -50 40 40 (100) 6 6 (100) 51 25 - - -52 154 83 (54) 12 12 (100) 62 175 114 (65) 52 37 (71) 63 582 354 (61) 119 54 (45) 64 260 187 (72) 18 -65 242 187 (77) 106 49 ' (46) 66 184 156 (85) 67 52 (72) 67 134 110 (82) 56 55 (98) 68 43 13 (30) 6 6 (100) a) Work T r i p s — T h e western zones,. including the West End . (02), K i t s i l a n o (30), Arbutus (34) and Point Grey (31) have a r e l a t i v e l y high percentage of t o t a l work t r i p " t r a n s i t volumes destined to the core. Eastern zones, including V i c t o r i a Drive (36) and East Hastings display a s i m i l a r pattern. North and Central Burnaby (45, 46), the North Shore zones and West Richmond (50) forming a suburban r i n g also have a high per cent of t o t a l t r i p s generated, destined to the core. Lower per cent r a t i o s are found generally i n south-west and c e n t r a l and south-eastern areas of the C i t y of Vancouver. b) Shopping Trips--Zones of high per cent shopping t r i p o r i e n t a t i o n to the core area are generally the same as those having high per cent work t r i p o r i e n t a t i o n . Greater r e l a t i v e shopping t r i p o r i e n t a t i o n to the core occurs i n zones 02, 04, 15-18, 23-29, 32, 34, 35A, 38, 41, 42, 44, 45, 46, 52 and 68. In some of these zones 32, 35A, 50, 52 and 68 actual t r i p volumes are extremely low. S i g n i f i c a n t l y greater o r i e n t a t i o n of shopping t r i p s to the core occurs i n the close-to-the-core West End and Fairview and inner East Hastings. 3) D i s t r i b u t i o n of T r a n s i t Trips to S p e c i f i c Core Zones The core area defined i n Chapter I i s comprised of eight t r a f f i c zones. (Figure 5) Employment i n the core provides jobs for over 80,000 people, more than 60 per cent 50 o f w h i c h a r e i n w h i t e c o l l a r o c c u p a t i o n s . ' ( T a b l e 3) W h i t e c o l l a r employment i s f o u n d p r i m a r i l y i n t h e n o r t h - w e s t e r n a r e a s o f t h e downtown c o r e , i n c l u d i n g zones 0 3 , and 0 5 - 0 9 . B l u e c o l l a r employment i s f o u n d i n e a s t e r n and w a t e r f r o n t c o r e zones i n c l u d i n g zones 1 0 - 1 4 . R e t a i l a c t i v i t y i n t h e c o r e i s c o n c e n t r a t e d a l o n g t h e G r a n v i l l e and H a s t i n g s S t r e e t axes i n zones 0 7 , 05-06 and 1 3 - 1 4 . These zones a c c o u n t f o r n e a r l y t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f c o r e a r e a r e t a i l e m p l o y m e n t , and f o r m d i s t i n c t s h o p p i n g d i s t r i c t s w i t h i n t h e c o r e . TABLE 3 EMPLOYMENT I N THE URBAN CORE: 1965 ZONE BLUE COLLAR HOR. PER. WHITE COLLAR HOR. PER. t TOTAL V E R T . P E R . RETAIL EMPLOYMENT VERT. PER. 03 1 ,550 (10) 1 3 , 9 5 0 (90) 1 5 , 5 0 0 (19) 360 (3) 05-06 5 ,080 (33) 1 0 , 5 2 0 (67) 1 5 , 6 0 0 (19) 2 ,030 (19) 07 5 ,010 (30) 11 ,690 (70) 1 6 , 7 0 0 (21) 2 , 9 2 0 . (27) 08 1 ,230 (30) 2 ,870 (70) 4 , 1 0 0 (6) 950 (9) 09 1 ,620 (30) 3 ,780 (70) 5 ,400 (7) 470 (4) 10 2 ,380 (70) 1,020 (30) 3 ,400 (4) 390 (4) 11-12 5 ,480 (60) 3 ,720 (40) 9 ,200 (11) 49 0 (5) 13-14 8 ,130 (77) 2 ,470 (23) 1 0 , 6 0 0 (13) 3 ,010 (28) T o t a l 30 ,480 (38) 50 ,020 (62) 80 ,500 SOURCE: V . T . S . , C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t . Work t r a n s i t t r i p s t o a l l t h e c o r e zones t o g e t h e r and t o e a c h o f t h e s e c o r e zones a r e i n d i v i d u a l l y examined h e r e t o d e t e r m i n e i f d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n s o f work t r i p o r i e n t a t i o n 51 towards separate areas of the urban hinterland are evident; for each zone. Then, a l l core zones and three r e t a i l zones '(07, including the Bay Department store; 05-06, including Eaton's; and 13-14, including Woodward's) are studied to determine i f r e t a i l areas of the core have d i r e c t i o n a l or socio-economic o r i e n t a t i o n , as indicated by shopping t r i p patterns. (See procedural note below) a) Work T r i p s — N e a r l y twenty per cent of those working i n the core t r a v e l by bus. Zones 05-06, 07, and 13-14 have a higher proportion of t r a n s i t t r i p ends per employment opportunity than the other core zones as. indicated i n Table 4. Procedural Note: For the purposes of t h i s section, t r a f f i c zones i n the t r a n s i t service area have been combined into groups with r e l a t i v e l y common socio-economic and d i r e c t i o n a l and distance c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . These aggregations are admittedly crude, but do allow for v i s u a l comparison of the areas of influence of each core zone, r e l a t i v e to other core zones. This picture i s presented i n terms of the per cent of t o t a l t r i p s to each core zone coming from each of the aggregated o r i g i n zones. 52 TABLE 4 BUS PASSENGER WORK TRIP ENDS AND EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION I N CORE ZONES ZONE EMPLOYMENT* VERTICAL PER CENT WORK TRIP ENDS VERTICAL PER CENT 03 05-06 07 08 09 10 11-12 13-14 T o t a l 1 5 , 5 0 0 1 5 , 6 0 0 16 ,700 4 ,100 5 , 4 0 0 3 ,400 9 ,200 10 ,600 80 ,500 (19) (19) (21) (6) (7) (4) (ID (13) 1 ,406 4 , 9 5 8 3 ,826 332 636 216 707 2 , 8 4 9 1 4 , 9 3 2 (9) (33) (26) (2) (4) (1) (5) (19) *SOURCE: V . T . S . , C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t These zones a l s o have a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f r e t a i l e m p l o y m e n t , ( T a b l e 3) and f e m a l e r i d e r work t r i p e n d s . ( T a b l e 5) O t h e r h i g h p r o p o r t i o n f e m a l e r i d e r t r i p ends o c c u r i n zone 03 and zone 1 0 . Zone 11-12 and 08 have h i g h e r male r i d e r t r i p end p r o p o r t i o n s . D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Work T r i p O r i g i n s ( T a b l e 6 , F i g u r e 10) ( i ) A l l C o r e Z o n e s - - T h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f bus work t r i p . o r i g i n s f o r a l l c o r e zones i s e v e n l y b a l a n c e d o v e r t h e s t u d y a r e a , w i t h some c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n F a i r v i e w - K i t s i l a n o - A r b u t u s - P o i n t G r e y a r e a , 22 p e r 53 TABLE 5 BUS PASSENGER WORK TRIPS'TO CORE ZONES BY SEX OF RIDER MALE HORIZONTAL FEMALE HORIZONTAL PHTAT T O T 1 AT G TRIPS PER CENT TRIPS PER CENT KUW l U i n J j O 03 487 (35) 918 (65) 1,405 05-06 1,639 (33) 3,325 (67) 4,964 07 1,179 (28) 2,643 (72) 3,822 08 165 (53) 148 (47) 313 09 241 (37) 413 (63) 654 10 63 (30) 152 (70) 215 11-12 415 (59) 289 (41) 704 13-14 1,254 (44) 1,610 (56) 2,864 Total 5,44 3 (37) 9,498 (63) 14,941* *Difference i n t o t a l s between Table 4 and Table 5 at t r i b u t a b l e to round-off err o r s . cent; and the eastern south-east sectors of the C i t y with 12 and 16 per cent r e s p e c t i v e l y . North Vancouver and Burnaby o r i g i n s account for 7 and 6 per cent, and Richmond for 1 per cent. This l a t t e r group r e f l e c t s a decline with distance, but no sec t o r a l emphasis. ___  ( i i ) Zone 03, the o f f i c e bulge area, with almost 14,000 white c o l l a r employees at the time of the survey, has a high per cent of t r i p o r i g i n s from the Fairview-Kitsilano-Arbutus-Point Grey area, 22 per cent; and the south-east sector, 18 per cent. North Vancouver and Burnaby are also well represented, with 10 and 8 TABLE 6 DISTRIBUTION OF BUS PASSENGER WORK TRIPS TO CORE ZONES ZONE CODE DESTINATION 05-06 V e r t . Per. 07 V e r t . Per. 08 V e r t Per. 09 V e r t . Per. 10 V e r t . Per. 11-12 V e r t . P e r . 13-14 V e r t . Per. Row T o t a l 333 (7) 273 (7) 41 (12) 35 (5) -25 (4) 197 (7) 995 (7) 69 (1) 33 (1) - - - - 115 (4)- 217 (1) 251 (5) 141 (4) 13 (4) - 13 (6) 35 (5) 100 (4) 580 (4) 7 - - - - - - 18 5 - - 15 (2) - - - 46 15 6 - - - - - 21 19 - - ; _ - 13 32 21 : - - - - 32 34 33 (1) - 16 (3) - - 10 143 (1) 14 - - - - - 13 27 - 39 (1) 18 (5) - - 21 (3) - 125 (1) 171 (3) 256 (7) - 28 (4) - 8 (1) 76 (3) 620 (4) 15 8 - 12 (2) 12 (6) 8 (1) - 76 (1) 132 (3) 21 (1) - - - 18 (3) 80 (3) 272 (2) 366 (7) 629 (16) 14 (4) 62 (10) 35 (16) 161 (23) 166 (6) 1 558 (10) 145 (3) 98 (3) 31 (9) 18 (3) - 31 (4) 61 (2) 418 (3) 7 - - 6 (1) - 5 (1) - 18 13 - 6 (2) - - - 13 32 209 (4) 187 (5) 29 (9) 15 (2) - 68 (10) 167 (6) 748 (5) - 28 (1) •- - - - 13 32 138 (3) - - 21 (3) - 21 (3) 125 (4) 338 (2) 233 (5) 77 (2) 46 (14) 21 (3) - 24 (3) 109 (4) 540 (4) 138 (3) 35 (1) - 12 (2) 28 (13) 23 (3) 109 (4) 345 (2) 119 (2) . 104 (3) 18 (5) 46 (7) - 18 (3) 98 (3) 403 (3) 274 (6) 149 (4) - 31 (5) 18 (8) 8 (1) 257 (9) 803 (5) 152 (3) 52 (1) - 13 (2) - 13 (2) 110 (4) 361 (2) 609 (12) 226 (6) - 62 (10) 24 (11) 30 (4) 200 (7) 1 311 (9) 331 (7) 260 (7) 13 (4) 65 (10) 60 (28) - 197 (7) 1 023 (7) 153 (3) 188 (5) 18 (5) 13 (2) - 15 (2) 228 (8) 675 (5) 312 (6) 337 (9) - 68 ( I D - 76 (11) 142 (5) 998 (7) 186 (4) 91 (2) 54 (16) 13 (2) 13 (6) - 107 (4) 523 (4) 86 (2) 26 (1) 13 (4) 27 (4) 13 (6) 6 (1) 27 (1) 212 (1) 44 8 (1) 21 (1) 18 (5) : - _ - 107 8 (1) : : - 13 (2) - - 27 (1) 40 83 (2) _ _ _ _ _ 83 (1) 51 (1) 43 (1) - - - - - 127 (1) 94 (2) 177 (5) - - - 50 (7) 20 (1) 354 (2) 58 (1) 77 (2) - 13 (2) - 13 (2) - 187 (1) 13 . 105 (3) - - - 20 (3) 39 (1) 187 (1) 51 (1) 59 (2) - - - - 13 156 (1) 20 13 - 13 (2) - 10 (1) 20 (1) 110 (1) - 13 - - - - - 13 4,958 3,826 332 638 216 707 2,849 14 ,932 ORIGIN 03 V e r t . Per. 01 02 03 04 05-06 07 08 09 10 11-12 13-14 15-16-17-18 19-20-26 21-25 22 23- 29 24- 28 27AB 30 31 32 33 34 35A 35B 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 91 (6) 27 11 26 11 50 (2) (1) (2) (1) (4) 47 (3) 81 21 21 125 34 73 12 33 30 66 21 (6) (1) (1) (9) (2) (5) (1) (2) (2) (5) (1) 160 (11) 97 60 63 59 14 24 33 13 26 10 33 34 1,406 (7) (4) (4) (4) (1) (3) (2) (1) (2) (1) (2) (2) Source: Vancouver Urban Core T r a n s i t Survey , 56 , per cent. The West End i s low with only 8 per cent. The o r i e n t a t i o n of t h i s zone approximates that of the a l l zone pattern and supports, the expected balance of westward o r i e n t a t i o n caused by lower income areas greater t r a n s i t t r a v e l propensity, ( i i i ) Zones 05-06 have a c e n t r a l , 11 per cent; eastern, 14 per cent; and south-east sector, 19 per cent o r i e n t a t i o n . The West End accounts for 12 per cent of t r i p s while the K i t s i l a n o - P o i n t Grey area accounts for 17 per cent, again supporting the expected :balance o r i e n t a t i o n , (iv) Zone 07, with two-thirds of the employment opportunities i n white c o l l a r occupations, (as had zones 05-06) has a much greater o r i e n t a t i o n towards the western sectors of the c i t y . S i g n i f i c a n t here i s the 31 per cent from Fairview-Kitsilano-Arbutus-Point Grey area (23 per cent from K i t s i l a n o -Fairview). North Vancouver i s high with 14 per cent of t r i p o r i g i n s from t h i s area. As a western core zone with a western b i a s , t h i s supports Wolforth's findings. (v) Zone 0 8 has i t s " highest recorded t r i p o r i g i n s i n Burnaby, p a r t i c u l a r l y North Burnaby. Only the c l o s e - i n areas of the West End, K i t s i l a n o , Arbutus, Point Grey and Broadway-Mount Pleasant have a high • , . 57 p e r c e n t o f t r i p o r i g i n s . The p a t t e r n w i t h i n t h e s e a r e a s i s a l s o d i f f e r e n t , t h a n f o r o t h e r c o r e z o n e s , w i t h b o t h A r b u t u s and P o i n t G r e y h a v i n g g r e a t e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n t h a n K i t s i l a n o and F a i r v i e w . N o r t h V a n c o u v e r and t h e s o u t h - w e s t , s o u t h c e n t r a l , s o u t h -e a s t and e a s t e r n s e c t o r s o f t h e c i t y a r e few work t r i p o r i g i n s w i t h t r i p ends i n t h i s z o n e . No r e a s o n s f o r B u r n a b y ' s i m p o r t a n c e i s s u g g e s t e d i n t h e c a s e s t u d y - r e v i e w o r t h e d a t a , ( v i ) Zone 09 has i t s o r i e n t a t i o n t o w a r d s e a s t e r n and s o u t h e r n zones p r i m a r i l y , a l t h o u g h t h e w e s t e r n and s o u t h - w e s t e r n a r e a s r e m a i n q u i t e h i g h . The West End i s v e r y l o w w i t h o n l y 5 p e r c e n t . A g a i n no h i g h l y d e f i n e d e a s t - w e s t b i a s i s a p p a r e n t , ( v i i ) Zone 10, an i n d u s t r i a l - g e n e r a l b u s i n e s s zone w i t h t w o - t h i r d s o f i t s 3,400 w o r k e r s i n b l u e c o l l a r o c c u p a t i o n , i s o r i e n t e d t o t h e e a s t and s o u t h - e a s t , w i t h a h i g h r e p r e s e n t a t i o n f r o m B u r n a b y . T h i s s u p p o r t s b o t h t h e e x p e c t e d e a s t c o r e t o e a s t h i n t e r l a n d r e l a t i o n s h i p and income s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s e o c c u p a t i o n s and t h e e a s t e r n s e c t o r o f t h e i n n e r c o r e r i n g , ( v i i i ) Zones 11-12 a r e a l s o b l u e c o l l a r ' z o n e s w i t h 60 p e r c e n t o f employees i n b l u e c o l l a r o c c u p a t i o n s . These zones have t h e o p p o s i t e o r i e n t a t i o n t o zone 10. Where zones In the south-east and eastern sectors were highly represented•for zone 10, these zones are low for zones 11-12. Origin zones i n the ;* western, inner c e n t r a l and south-western sectors, and North Vancouver have the highest o r i e n t a t i o n to these core zones. This i s opposite to expected o r i e n t a t i o n . (ix) Zones 13-14, with nearly 80 per cent of i t s 10,600 employment-opportunities i n blue c o l l a r occupations, has an eastward o r i e n t a t i o n as would be expected. Areas east of Oak Street account for 62 per cent of t r i p o r i g i n s . b) Shopping T r i p s — t o the core are concentrated i n those zones which have the highest portion of r e t a i l employment, zones 05, 06, 07 and 13-14. (Table 7) Over 80 per cent of bus passengers t r a v e l l i n g to the core to shop are female, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n zones 05, 06, 07 and 13-14. (Table 8) D i s t r i b u t i o n of Shopping Tr i p Origins (Table 9 , Figure 11) (i) A l l Core Zones—7,659 shopping t r i p s to the core were recorded during the Transit Survey. Ninety-six per cent of these t r i p s were destined to zones 05-06 (22%), 07 (36%) and 13-14 (38%). Zone 07 comprises much of the G r a n v i l l e Street axis of the Central Business D i s t r i c t ; Zone 05-06 comprises the 59 TABLE 7 • BUS PASSENGER SHOPPING TRIP ENDS AND RETAIL EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION IN CORE ZONES *7 /^ "NTT? RETAIL VERTICAL SHOPPING VERTICAL EMPLOYMENT PER CENT TRIP/ENDS PER CENT 03 360 (3) 154 (2) 05-06 2,030 (19) 1,723 (22) 07 2,920 (27) 2,775 (36) 08 950 -t. (9) 26 -09 470 (4) 72 (1) 10 390 (4) 82 (1) 11-12 490 (5) - -13-14 3,010 (28) 2,827 (37) T o t a l 10,620 7,659 TABLE 8 BUS PASSENGER SHOPPING TRIPS TO CORE ZONES BY SEX OF RIDER ZONE MALE HORIZONTAL FEMALE HORIZONTAL ROW TRIPS PER CENT TRIPS PER CENT TOTALS 03 39 (22) 139 (78) 178 05-06 328 (18) 1,453 (82) 1,781 07 562 (21) 2,141 (79) 2,703 08 16 (62) 10 (38) 26 09 44 (61) 28 (39) 72 10 - - -11-12 19 (23) 62 (77) 81 13-14 453 (15) 2,502 (85) 2,955 T o t a l 1,461 (19) 6,335 (81) 7,796* * D i f f e r e n c e i n t o t a l s b e t w e e n T a b l e 7 and T a b l e 8 a t t r i b u t a b l e t o r e s p o n s e c a t e g o r y v a r i a t i o n and r o u n d - o f f e r r o r s . 60 TABLE 9 DISTRIBUTION OF BUS PASSENGER SHOPPING TRIPS TO CORE ZONES ZONE CODE DESTINATION ORIGIN 03 05-06 Vert. 07 Vert. 08 09 10 11-12 13-14 Vert. Row Total Per. Per. Per. 01 - 26 (2) — _ _ _ 26 02 30 217 (13) 308 (11) - 15 - - 221 (8) 791 (10) 03 - 74 (4) 90 (3) 16 - - - 103 (4) 283 (4) 04 - 62 (4) 104 (4) - - - - 57 (2) 223 (3) 05-06 24 - 45 (2) - - - - 81 (3) 150 (2) 07 13 41 (2) 11 - 21 - - 293 (10) 379 (5) 08 - 17 (1) - - - - • - 21 (1) 38 09 - - - - - - 19 (1) 19 10 . - 24 (1) - - - - - - 24 11-12 - - 21 (1) - - - - - 21 13-14 24 105 (6) 474 (17) - - - - 27 (1) 630 (8) 15-16-17-18 - 11 (1) 74 (3) - - - - 66 (2) 151 (2) 19-20-26 - - - - 28 - - - 28 21-25 - 18 (1) - - - - 50 (2) 68 (1) 22 . - - - - - - - - -23-29 10 22 (1) 274 (10) - - - 33 • 85 (3) 424 (6) 24-28 17 10 (1) 22 (1) - 8 - - - 57 (1) 2 7AB - 61 (4) 26 (1) - - - - 63 (2) 150 (2) 30 - 82 (5) 75 (3) - - - 14 105 (4) 276 (4) 31 - 50 (3) 90 (3) - - - - 38 (1) 178 (2) 32 - 4 18 (1) - - - - 5 27 33 - - 7 - - - - - 7 34 - 88 (5) 160 (6) - - - - - 287 (4) 35A - 10 (1) 10 - - - - - 20 35B - 18 (1) - - - - - 35 (1) 53 (1) 36 - 102 (6) 6 - - - - 99 (4) 207 (3) 37 - 28 (2) 55 (2) - - - - 72 (3) 155 (2) 38 -• - 16 (1) - - - - 69 (2) 85 (1) 39 6 95 (6) 53 (2) - - - 6 56 (2) 216 (3) 40 - 51 (3) 31 (1) - - - - 100 (4) 182 (2) 41 - 80 (5) 63 (2) - - - - 534 (19) 677 (9) 42 6 121 (7) 281 (10) 10 - - - 142 (5) 560 (7) 43 - 86 (5) 102 (4) - - - - 36 (1) 224 (3) 44 - 152 (9) 175 (6) - - - - 101 (4) 428 (6) 45 - 23 (1) 35 (1) - - - - 152 (5) 210 (3) 46 - 23 (1) 29 (1) - - - 23 (1) 75 (1) 47 17 - - - - - - 33 (1) 50 (1) 48 - - - - - - - - -49 - - - - - - - - -50 - - - - - - - - -51 - - - - - - - -52 - - - - - - - 12 12 62 - 30 (1) - - - - 16 46 63 - 15 (1) 17 (1) - - - 15 7 54 (1) 64 - - - • - - - - - -65 - - 15 (1) - - - - 34 (1) 49 (1) 66 7 - ,30 (1) - - - - 15 52 (1) 67 - 7 22 (1) - - - - 26 (1) 55 (1) 68 - - - - - - - 6 6 Column Totals 154 1,723 2,775 26 72 - 82 2,827 7,659 S o u r c e : V a n c o u v e r Urban Core T r a n s i t S u r v e y 62 . . .• Eaton's Company area of the Hastings Street axis and zones 13-14 inqlude'the Woodward's area of the Hastings Street axis. The pattern of influence of a l l core zones i n terms of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of bus passenger o r i g i n s for shopping t r i p s i s indicated i n Figure 11. The West End accounts for 13 per cent of these t r i p s ; K i t s i l a n o - P o i n t Grey 16 per cent; and Dunbar-Kerrisdale-Marpole 6 per c e n t — a t o t a l of 35 per cent for the western sector of the c i t y . The .central areas account for 10 per cent as does the eastern sector, while the large south-eastern area accounts for 16 per cent. North Vancouver and ri Burnaby have 4 and 5 per cent of a l l core destined shopping t r i p s respectively, ( i i ) Zone 07—The Gr a n v i l l e Street axis, with the Bay department store as i t s major focus, attracted almost 2,800 t r a n s i t t r i p s during the survey day. A d e f i n i t e western sector o r i e n t a t i o n of t h i s zone i s apparent, with 4 4 per cent of the t r i p s coming from the area east of Oak Street (including the West End). The c e n t r a l and eastern areas including Burnaby were not as well represented as they were for the average picture given by the pattern for a l l core zones, and North Vancouver gained one 63 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t above t h i s a v e r a g e . " T h i s s u p p o r t s H a r d w i c k and L e i g h ' s f i n d i n g s , ( i i i ) Zones 0 5 - 0 6 - - T h e E a t o n ' s Company a r e a , w i t h l e s s " r e t a i l f l o o r space t h a n t h e o t h e r z o n e s , and be tween t h e s e zones and t h u s s u b j e c t t o t h e i r i n t e r v e n i n g i n f l u e n c e on c u s t o m e r s c o m i n g f r o m e i t h e r t h e w e s t o r e a s t e r n s e c t o r s o f t h e s t u d y a r e a , had f e w e r t r i p d e s t i n a t i o n s r e c o r d e d t h a n e i t h e r t h e Bay (07) o r Woodward ' s (13-14) a r e a s . The w e s t e r n s e c t o r a c c o u n t e d f o r 42 p e r c e n t o f s h o p p i n g t r i p o r i g i n s , s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n f o r 0 7 , b u t d i s p l a y i n g a d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n , w i t h t h e West End a c c o u n t i n g f o r 19 p e r c e n t o f s h o p p i n g t r i p s . The c e n t r a l area" zones a c h i e v e t h e i r h i g h e s t r e p r e s e n t a t i o n h e r e w i t h 18 p e r c e n t o f a l l s h o p p i n g t r i p s t o zones 0 5 - 0 6 . The s o u t h - e a s t e r n a r e a r e m a i n e d unchanged w i t h 12 p e r c e n t , w h i l e t h e e a s t e r n s e c t o r g a i n e d f o u r p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s above s h o w i n g f o r s h o p p i n g t r i p s t o zone 07 . The West E n d , C e n t r a l and E a s t e r n s e c t o r zones a r e i n d i c a t e d as t h e m a j o r a r e a s o f i n f l u e n c e o f zones 0 5 - 0 6 . A somewhat c e n t r a l b i a s , as e x p e c t e d , i s i n d i c a t e d , ( i v ) Zones 1 3 - 1 4 — T h e Woodward ' s Company a r e a had s l i g h t l y more t r i p ends t h a n t h e Bay a r e a , 64 with a t o t a l of 2,827 t r i p s recorded. However, the o r i e n t a t i o n of t h i s area i s opposite to that of the Bay. The western zones account for only 22 per cent of t r i p o r i g i n s to the Woodward's area. The central area maintains i t s average p o s i t i o n , and the eastern and south-eastern sectors account for 39 per cent of t r i p o r i g i n s to zones 05-06. This i s double the influence of the Bay zone i n t h i s area. ' Zones 13-14 are much more highly oriented to Burnaby than to eit h e r of the other :zones. Again e a r l i e r findings are supported, (v) Internal Shopping T r i p s - - T r i p s within the core area are examined together here as a s p e c i a l case. These t r i p s may be i n d i c a t i v e of second choice shopping destinations, and a f f e c t the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the above patterns. — D e s t i n a t i o n 07—Of a l l t r i p s destined to 07, 23 per cent o r i g i n a t e from within the core. The largest portion of these, 17 per cent, come from zones 13-14, hi n t i n g at comparison shopping between the Woodward's and the Bay areas. Three per cent come from zone 03 which has a large r e s i d e n t i a l population as well as employment concentration. Two per cent come from the nearby Eaton's area, h i n t i n g at comparison shopping. ; 65 — D e s t i n a t i o n 05-06—Fourteen per cent of a l l t r i p s destined to 05-06 ori g i n a t e i n the core. Six per cent of these come from the Woodward's area and two per cent come from the Bay area, h i n t i n g at comparison shopping among these areas. The remaining s i x per cent include four per cent from the mixed employment r e s i d e n t i a l zone 03, and two per cent from other core zones. . — D e s t i n a t i o n 13-14--Twenty per cent of a l l t r i p ends i n these zones or i g i n a t e i n core zones. Zone 07 i s highest with 10 per cent, and zones 05-06 represent 3 per cent. Again 4 per cent come from zone 03 and the remainder from other core zones. If these core o r i g i n s are interpreted as second choice t r i p ends, and assuming that the f i r s t choice t r i p end was made on the inbound t r i p to the core, the west, ce n t r a l and eastern o r i e n t a t i o n of shopping t r i p s to the three r e t a i l core zones must be modified somewhat. Given t h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n and assumption: Where i t was found that zone 07 had 4 4 per cent of i t s t r i p s from west of Oak Street, i t also had an ad d i t i o n a l 17 per cent of t r i p s from the Woodward's area, where f i r s t stop t r i p s p r i m a r i l y came from 66 the eastern and southern sectors of the study area. This suggests a balancing of the area of influence of the Bay across the study area. No comment can be made about the purchase of goods however. Where i t was found that zones 05-06 had a central area o r i e n t a t i o n , 6 per cent of t o t a l t r i p ends also came from the Woodward's area, increasing the eastward or i e n t a t i o n of t h i s store c l u s t e r . Only 2 per cent of t r i p ends came from the Bay area, but i t i s noted here that although the Bay area i s s l i g h t l y c loser than the Woodward's area, i t i s also downhill. Here again there i s a balancing of influence to a l i m i t e d extent, but a more eastward bias i n o r i e n t a t i o n can be interpreted for t h i s area. Where i t was found that zones 13-14 were oriented very heavily towards the eastern and south-eastern sectors, the i n t e r n a l core movement patterns modifies t h i s . Ten per cent of t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g i n zone 07 and ending i n zones 13-14 suggest an increase i n western sector influence, but not so large an.influence as to balance the eastern and western portions of the study area. These zones (13-14) s t i l l appear to be oriented more towards the eastern sector. : 67 4) Summary and Conclusions 1) Per capita d i s t r i b u t i o n of t r a n s i t t r i p s to the core: a) Work Trips to the core by t r a n s i t do not follow the same pattern as automobile t r i p s to the core found by Wolforth. T r a n s i t t r i p s ' patterns to the core as a whole are more oriented towards the eastern sector of Vancouver. The drop-off with distance i n per capita t r a n s i t t r i p generation i s gradual within 3-4 miles of the core, then drops o f f r a p i d l y i n Burnaby and Richmond. The North • Vancouver zones however have comparable per capita t r i p generation volumes as do Vancouver zones i n the c e n t r a l and eastern areas. Within Vancouver, western zones, (with the exception of c l o s e - i n K i t s i l a n o and Fairview areas) have low per capita t r a n s i t work t r i p s to the core. These patterns suggest that t r a n s i t as a transportation mode to the core has greatest attractiveness as a short distance mode, and as a means of t r a v e l for low income groups, or captive r i d e r s (those who have no a l t e r n a t i v e means of t r a v e l ) . b) Shopping Trips to the core are r e l a t i v e l y high (per capita) i n zones located adjacent to the core, where shopping t r i p s by t r a n s i t from these zones are not r e s t r i c t e d by distance or intervening . . 68 opportunities. Other Vancouver zones are r e l a t i v e l y constant i n ' t h e i r per capita t r i p production rates. Distance and intervening opportunity are perhaps s i g n i f i c a n t factors here, but t h i s i s d i f f i c u l t to substantiate at the present l e v e l of aggregation. Both high income and low income r e s i d e n t i a l areas have s i m i l a r rates, i n d i c a t i n g that i n both types of areas the a v a i l a b i l i t y of autos for women i n the household may be low. (Eighty per cent of t r a n s i t shopping . t r i p s to the core were made by women). This r e l a t i v e l y constant rate also suggests that core r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s are continuing to maintain t h e i r shopping goods, a t t r a c t i o n despite the presence of intervening opportunity convenience centres. Transit t r i p s to the core as a per cent of a l l t r a n s i t  t r i p s : The t r a n s i t system was developed, and continues to function, as a downtown oriented transportation system within the Vancouver area, and has high frequency l i n k s to the core from suburban c o l l e c t o r systems i n North Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond. The r o l e of t h i s system as a core-oriented system i s measured here i n terms of the per cent of t o t a l work and shopping t r a n s i t t r i p o r i g i n s that are destined to the core. a) Work Trips—Two bands of high per cent o r i e n t a t i o n towards the downtown core are apparent, an inner r i n g comprised mainly of those zones having high per capita t r a n s i t generation rates; and an outer suburban r i n g of those zones with low per capita t r i p generation rates. The inner core r i n g r a t i o pattern gives an i n d i c a t i o n of the importance of the t r a n s i t system to short distance r i d e r s who l i v e near t h e i r work places. The pattern i n the ; outer c i r c u m f e r e n t i a l l y organized r i n g gives an i n d i c a t i o n of the use of the t r a n s i t system by captive r i d e r s who work i n the core but chose t h e i r i r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n for reasons other than proximity to work place. This pattern i s consistent with Hardwick's inner core r i n g model or urban form; i t indicates that the core has i t s greatest influence as a destination over a l i m i t e d inner r i n g area. ' - • •" b) Shopping Trips—Volumes are generally higher i n or i e n t a t i o n towards the core than are work t r i p s , with greater o r i e n t a t i o n i n adjacent-to-the-core zones. The t r a n s i t system appears to function as a downtown core r e t a i l service system for t h i s type of t r i p , and suggests a s p e c i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p 70 o f c o r e r e t a i l a c t i v i t i e s and and t r a n s i t s y s t e m w i t h i n t h e i n n e r r i n g and f o r c a p t i v e r i d e r s i n . t h e o u t e r r i n g . D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t r a n s i t t r i p s t o c o r e z o n e s : I n e a r l i e r s t u d i e s o f V a n c o u v e r ' s t r a v e l p a t t e r n s , t h e o r i e n t a t i o n o f t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o i n d i v i d u a l c o r e zones was e a s t w a r d f r o m e a s t e r n c o r e z o n e s , and w e s t w a r d f r o m w e s t e r n c o r e z o n e s . T h i s was g e n e r a l l y f o u n d t o be t h e c a s e a l s o w i t h t h e t r a n s i t t r a v e l p a t t e r n s s u r v e y e d i n t h e U B C - T r a n s i t S u r v e y and d e s c r i b e d h e r e . a) Work T r i p s - - T h e p a t t e r n f o r a l l c o r e zones was e v e n l y d i s t r i b u t e d t h r o u g h o u t V a n c o u v e r w i t h no a p p a r e n t s e c t o r a l b i a s , b u t d e c l i n i n g w i t h d i s t a n c e . H o w e v e r , o r i e n t a t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l w e s t e r n c o r e zones was g e n e r a l l y w e s t w a r d , and e a s t e r n zones t o t h e e a s t w i t h some e x c e p t i o n s . T h i s p a t t e r n was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p o r t i o n o f b l u e and w h i t e c o l l a r w o r k e r s i n e a c h z o n e , w i t h p r e d o m i n a n t l y b l u e c o l l a r zones o r i e n t e d e a s t ( w o r k i n g c l a s s a r e a s ) . I n e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s were zones 11-12, a b l u e c o l l a r zone w h i c h was o r i e n t e d w e s t . b) S h o p p i n g T r i p s — T h r e e c o r e zones were mapped. The p a t t e r n s o f t r i p o r i g i n s f o r e a c h were f o u n d t o 71 p a r a l l e l t h o s e found by Hardwick and L e i g h w i t h t h e Bay a r e a o r i e n t e d w e s t , t h e Ea t o n ' s a r e a o r i e n t e d c e n t r a l l y and e a s t and t h e Woodward's a r e a o r i e n t e d e a s t . A f t e r an a n a l y s i s . o f i n t e r n a l t r i p s (between c o r e zones) i t was found t h a t s h o p p i n g t r i p s between r e t a i l zones s u g g e s t e d c o m p a r i s o n s h o p p i n g , and t h u s a b a l a n c i n g o f r e t a i l a r e a o r i e n t a t i o n o v e r t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a . These i n t e r n a l movements a r e a l s o c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f o f f i c e w o r k e r t r i p s from c o r e a r e a zones f o r s h o p p i n g . These d i s c o v e r i e s about t r a n s i t t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o t h e c o r e and i n d i v i d u a l c o r e zones c o n f i r m e a r l i e r arguments t h a t t h e c o r e a r e a i s n o t a homogeneous u n i t b u t a c o l l e c t i o n o f s p e c i a l i z e d f u n c t i o n s w i t h p a r t i c u l a r e x t e r n a l c o n n e c t i o n s . T h i s r e a l i z a t i o n has d e f i n i t e i m p l i c a t i o n s t o downtown p l a n n i n g , p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h r e g a r d t o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system improvements, and t h e s e w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n t h e f i n a l c h a p t e r . ' -72 CHAPTER I V • STEPWISE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF BUS PASSENGER TRAVEL PATTERNS TO THE CORE I n t h e p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o t h e c o r e by t r a n s i t were seen t o v a r y w i t h d i s t a n c e and d i r e c t i o n ( s o c i o -e c o n o m i c c l a s s ) . I n C h a p t e r I I , P a r t . I I , i t was p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n r a t e s f r o m r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s c o u l d a l s o be seen as a f u n c t i o n o f l a n d use a t t r i b u t e s w h i c h a f f e c t t h e demand f o r t r a v e l and t h e c h o i c e o f t r a v e l mode. I n t h i s c h a p t e r , m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s a r e u sed t o i d e n t i f y and t o p r o v i d e s t a t i s t i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n f o r some o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . T w e l v e f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h u r b a n t r a v e l p a t t e r n s a r e c h o s e n f o r t h e a n a l y s i s o f c o r e d e s t i n e d t r a n s i t t r i p vo lumes f r o m t h e f o r t y - o n e t r a f f i c zones s e r v e d by t h e B . C . H . and P . A . t r a n s i t s y s t e m . Backwards s t e p w i s e , r e g r e s s i o n p r o c e d u r e s a r e e m p l o y e d t o i d e n t i f y t h o s e v a r i a b l e s s i g n i f i c a n t i n e x p l a i n i n g c o r e d e s t i n e d t r a n s i t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n f o r work and s h o p p i n g p u r p o s e s . Two c a s e s a r e e x a m i n e d , a l l 41 zones and V a n c o u v e r zones o n l y . The d i s c u s s i o n i n C h a p t e r I I I i n d i c a t e d much h i g h e r p e r c a p i t a t r a n s i t r i d e r s h i p i n V a n c o u v e r C i t y , and a c o n s i s t e n t l y l a r g e p e r c e n t a g e o f t r i p s g e n e r a t e d i n V a n c o u v e r t h a n o t h e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t t h e V a n c o u v e r a r e a has stronger r e l a t i o n s h i p s with the core than those areas beyond the almost f r i c t i o n free inner area of Vancouver. This suggests an inner core r i n g of even less area than that suggested by Hardwick i s operating for the t r a n s i t system.. The general c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of multiple regression analysis are discussed i n Appendix I. In b r i e f , one can say. that stepwise regression, an improvement of multiple regression procedures, includes only those variables which provide a significant: contribution to the equation (determined by a pre-selected percentage point of the appropriate F d i s t r i b u t i o n . ) At each step a variable i s added to the equation. The f i r s t v ariable selected i s that with the highest c o r r e l a t i o n with the dependent v a r i a b l e . Additional variables are added i n order of t h e i r p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n with the dependent va r i a b l e . F tests at each step determine i f the variable to be added makes a s i g n i f i c a n t contribution to the equation, otherwise i t i s not added. At each step, variables within the equation are re-examined to determine i f they remain s i g n i f i c a n t i n combination with other va r i a b l e s , and i f not the i n s i g n i f i c a n t variable i s deleted. A variable which may have been the best single variable to enter at an e a r l i e r stage may, at a l a t e r stage, be superfluous because of the r e l a t i o n s between i t and other variables now i n the regression model. The process i s continued u n t i l no more variables w i l l be admitted to the 74 e q u a t i o n and no more are r e j e c t e d . T h i s technique i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be the s t r o n g e s t f o r i d e n t i f y i n g s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s , and i s v a l u a b l e i n i t s e l i m i n a t i o n o f i n s i g n i f i c a n t . • (1) f a c t o r s . The procedures used i n t h i s t h e s i s i n the a n a l y s i s o f work and shopping t r i p s by t r a n s i t t o the c o r e are a c t u a l l y the r e v e r s e of those d e s c r i b e d above and are c a l l e d "backward" stepwise r e g r e s s i o n . I nstead o f s t a r t i n g w i t h the most h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d independent v a r i a b l e , the p r o c e s s produces a f u l l m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g a l l nominated independent v a r i a b l e s , then proceeds to e l i m i n a t e (2 the l e a s t p a r t i a l l y c o r r e l a t e d and i n s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s . A 95 per c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l was s e l e c t e d f o r e l i m i n a t i o n . The backwards pr o c e s s enables one to f o l l o w the e l i m i n a t i o n of i n s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s . I t a l s o produces a f u l l e q u a t i o n r e g a r d l e s s o f s i g n i f i c a n c e o f v a r i a b l e s , which has g r e a t e r p r e d i c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y than the f i n a l stepwise e q u a t i o n , though t h i s l a t t e r may have g r e a t e r e x p l a n a t o r y s i g n i f i c a n c e . 1) The I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of Independent V a r i a b l e s and T h e i r Expected R e l a t i o n s h i p s . ' . .-Survey data o b t a i n e d from the Vancouver T r a n s p o r t a t i o n (3) Study are used t o t e s t some of the n o t i o n s advanced i n g e o g r a p h i c a l and p l a n n i n g l i t e r a t u r e and i n e a r l i e r case s t u d i e s , and to determine i f these i d e a s apply to t r a n s i t 75 t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o t h e c o r e o f V a n c o u v e r . I n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s u s e d f o r a n a l y s i s and t h e i r e x p e c t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h bus p a s s e n g e r t r a v e l p a t t e r n s a r e l i s t e d h e r e . A l l d a t a u s e d i s f o r t h e y e a r 1965 when t h e t r a n s i t s u r v e y was a l s o t a k e n , e x c e p t f o r med ian f a m i l y income w h i c h i s 1961 d a t a . The code name used f o r e a c h v a r i a b l e i s i n p a r e n t h e s e s . D a t a u sed a r e l i s t e d i n Computer P r i n t o u t s 1-4 , f o u n d i n an a p p e n d i x t o t h i s c h a p t e r . A code t o r e l a t e d p r i n t o u t p o s i t i o n t o t r a f f i c zone i s p r o v i d e d on t h e page p r e c e d i n g t h e s e p r i n t o u t s . 1) D i s t a n c e f r o m t h e c o r e (DISTAN) F i v e m i n u t e t r a v e l t i m e i n t e r v a l s by t r a n s i t f r o m t h e c o r e were u sed t o code d i s t a n c e f o r e a c h t r a f f i c z o n e . T r a n s i t t r i p o r i g i n s a r e e x p e c t e d t o d e c r e a s e w i t h d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e C . B . D . , d e m o n s t r a t i n g an i n v e r s e o r n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e C . B . D . , ( the d i s t a n c e d e c a y n o t i o n ) . T r a f f i c zones were a s s i g n e d mean t r a v e l t i m e v a l u e s . 2) P o p u l a t i o n (POPLTN) T r i p s g e n e r a t e d a r e e x p e c t e d t o be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e number o f r e s i d e n t s i n an a r e a , (a measure o f c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y ) . P o p u l a t i o n f o r e a c h t r a f f i c zone i s d i v i d e d by t e n f o r i n c l u s i o n i n i n p u t . 3) H o u s e h o l d s ( H S H L D S ) — s i m i l a r t o p o p u l a t i o n i n e x p e c t e d . r e l a t i o n s h i p s . The number o f h o u s e h o l d s i n e a c h zone i s u s e d . 4) A u t o m o b i l e a v a i l a b i l i t y (AUTOAV) . More t r a n s i t t r i p s a r e e x p e c t e d t o be g e n e r a t e d i n a r e a s w i t h f ewer a u t o m o b i l e s p e r h o u s e h o l d . T h i s i s a measure • • ' ' o f ' " c a p t i v e t r a n s i t r i d e r s h i p . A u t o m o b i l e a v a i l a b i l i t y i s e x p r e s s e d as a r a t i o o f t h e number o f a u t o m o b i l e s p e r h o u s e h o l d , and z o n a l v a l u e s a r e u s e d . 5) M e d i a n Income (MEDINC) More t r a n s i t t r i p s a r e e x p e c t e d t o be g e n e r a t e d i n zones w i t h l o w i n c o m e , a n o t h e r a g g r e g a t e measure o f t r a n s i t r i d e r s h i p . D a t a on 1961 m e d i a n f a m i l y income f o r each t r a f f i c zone i s u s e d . 6) L a b o u r f o r c e (LABFOR) A s u r r o g a t e c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y v a r i a b l e i s e x p e c t e d t o have a h i g h p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e amount o f work t r i p s g e n e r a t e d i n e a c h t r a f f i c z o n e . The number o f p e r s o n s i n t h e l a b o u r f o r c e f o r e a c h zone a r e u s e d . 7) B l u e c o l l a r l a b o u r f o r c e ( B L U L A B ) - - i s e x p e c t e d t o have a h i g h p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t r a n s i t work t r i p s g e n e r a t e d t o b l u e c o l l a r work a r e a s , w i t h - m o r e t r i p s by t r a n s i t e x p e c t e d f r o m l o w income b l u e c o l l a r a r e a s . How-e v e r , s i n c e t h e c o r e a r e a i s l a r g e l y a w h i t e c o l l a r work p l a c e , t h i s v a r i a b l e i s n o t e x p e c t e d t o be i m p o r t a n t i n t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f work t r i p s t o t h e c o r e . The number o f . p e r s o n s i n t h e b l u e c o l l a r l a b o u r f o r c e l i v i n g i n e a c h zone i s u s e d . (VTS use s DBS c a t e g o r i e s t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e be tween b l u e and w h i t e c o l l a r w o r k e r s , w i t h b l u e c o l l a r 77 . o c c u p a t i o n s i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g , mechanical', c o n s t r u c t i o n , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and l a b o u r e r s ' . c a t e g o r i e s . ) 8) White c o l l a r l a b o u r f o r c e (WHILAB) •'"This v a r i a b l e i s e x p e c t e d t o have a h i g h p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h work t r i p s t o t h e c o r e , g i v e n t h e n a t u r e o f downtown j o b s . T h i s v a r i a b l e i s a more s p e c i f i c measure o f c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y . The number o f p e r s o n s who work i n w h i t e c o l l a r o c c u p a t i o n s who l i v e i n each zone i s used. ( C a t e g o r i e s i n c l u d e p r o p r i e t a r y and managemental, p r o f e s s i o n a l , c l e r i c a l , c o m m e r c i a l , f i n a n c i a l , s e r v i c e and p e r s o n a l . ) 9) Employment (EMPLOY) An Intervening o p p o r t u n i t y f u n c t i o n f o r work t r i p s , t h i s v a r i a b l e i s e x p e c t e d t o have an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h r e s i d e n t i a l zone t r a n s i t g e n e r a t i o n , assuming t h a t l a b o u r f o r c e seeks t o m i n i m i z e d i s t a n c e t o employment. The number o f employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n each zone i s used* 10) B l u e c o l l a r employment (BLUEMP) S i m i l a r t o employment, b l u e c o l l a r employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s a r e e x p e c t e d t o r e s t r i c t t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t r i p s t o t h e c o r e by t h e b l u e c o l l a r l a b o u r f o r c e . The number o f b l u e c o l l a r employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n each zone i s used. 11) White c o l l a r employment (WHIEMP) '. The p r e s e n c e o f w h i t e c o l l a r employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s a r e e x p e c t e d t o be i n v e r s e l y a s s o c i a t e d i n a p a r t i c u l a r l y i n f l u e n t i a l way w i t h work t r i p s by t h e w h i t e c o l l a r l a b o u r 78 f o r c e t o t h e c o r e . The number o f w h i t e c o l l a r employment . o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n e a c h zone i s • u s e d . 12) R e t a i l employment ( R E T E M P ) — i s e x p e c t e d t o o p e r a t e i n t h e ""same manner f o r s h o p p i n g t r i p s as employment f o r work t r i p s as an i n t e r v e n i n g o p p o r t u n i t y . Used as a s u r r o g a t e measure f o r r e t a i l a c t i v i t y a t t r a c t i o n , i t i s e x p e c t e d t o have a n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h s h o p p i n g t r i p s g e n e r a t e d t o t h e c o r e . . A l l t w e l v e o f - t h e s e were i n c l u d e d as i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s i n b a c k w a r d s s t e p w i s e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s o f work and s h o p p i n g t r i p v o l u m e s . The a s s o c i a t i o n o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s w i t h t r a n s i t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n f o r a l l zones and V a n c o u v e r zones o n l y f o r work and s h o p p i n g t r i p s t o t h e c o r e i s shown i n t h e Computer P r i n t o u t s 1-4 , f o u n d a t t h e end o f t h i s c h a p t e r . The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e i n t e r p r e t e d p r i o r t o t h e I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s and r e s i d u a l s . 2) C o r r e l a t i o n A n a l y s i s o f T r a n s i t Volumes and V a r i a b l e s  A s s o c i a t e d W i t h T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n C o r r e l a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s , w h i c h measure t h e d e g r e e o f a s s o c i a t i o n be tween two v a r i a b l e s , a r e u s e d here- t o i n d i c a t e t h o s e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s w h i c h have t h e h i g h e s t d e g r e e o f a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s o f work and s h o p p i n g bus p a s s e n g e r t r i p s t o t h e c o r e . T r a n s i t t r i p o r i g i n s f o r 41 t r a f f i c z o n e s , r e p r e s e n t i n g a l l n o n - c o r e t r a f f i c zones s e r v e d by t h e t r a n s i t s y s t e m , and a l s o f o r t h e 26 n o n - c o r e t r a f f i c zones i n V a n c o u v e r , ( i n a s e p a r a t e a n a l y s i s ) a r e 79 r e l a t e d t o t h e 12 i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s l i s t e d a b o v e . S u b s e q u e n t l y , i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s o r a s s o c i a t i o n among t h e s e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s w i l l be e x a m i n e d . W o r k i n g t r i p o r i g i n s d e s t i n e d t o t h e c o r e a p p e a r t o have s t r o n g e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s t h a n s h o p p i n g t r i p o r i g i n s ( T a b l e 1 0 ) . H i g h e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s o c c u r f o r b o t h t r i p t y p e s when V a n c o u v e r zones o n l y a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s . No s t r o n g c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h a c o e f f i c i e n t g r e a t e r t h a n +.50 w i t h s h o p p i n g t r i p s t o t h e c o r e f r o m a l l zones i s f o u n d w i t h any o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . An e x a m i n a t i o n o f each c a s e i n T a b l e 10 i n d i c a t e s t h a t p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s o c c u r be tween work t r i p v o l u m e s and t h e number o f h o u s e h o l d s , l a b o u r f o r c e and w h i t e c o l l a r l a b o u r f o r c e p e r t r a f f i c z o n e . . These same v a r i a b l e s have t h e h i g h e s t c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h s h o p p i n g t r i p s t o t h e c o r e b u t h e r e a l l v a l u e s a r e b e l o w + .50 . F o r V a n c o u v e r zones o n l y , work t r i p s a r e f o u n d t o be h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h f i v e v a r i a b l e s . I n r a n k o r d e r , t h e s e a r e p o p u l a t i o n , h o u s e h o l d s , l a b o u r f o r c e , b l u e c o l l a r l a b o u r f o r c e and w h i t e c o l l a r l a b o u r f o r c e . The same v a r i a b l e s a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s h o p p i n g t r i p s , b u t t o a l e s s e r d e g r e e and n o t i n t h e same o r d e r . The e f f e c t o f d i s t a n c e i n b o t h t h e a l l - z o n e s c a s e , and t h e V a n c o u v e r - z o n e s c a s e i s i n d i c a t e d as b e i n g l o w ; h o w e v e r , i t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t h a t d i s t a n c e has an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p when a l l zones a r e 80 TABLE 10 ASSOCIATION OF T R A F F I C GENERATION VARIABLES WITH BUS PASSENGER TRIP ORIGIN VOLUMES CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS A L L ZONES (n=41) VANCOUVER ZONES (n=26) VARIABLE WORK . SHOP WORK SHOP DISTAN - . 2 6 - . 2 8 .26 .17 POPLTN .40 .30 .84 .65 HSHLDS .58 .48 .89 . 73 AUTOAV - . 0 8 - . 1 3 .29 .20 MEDINC .15 .09 .30 .25 LABFOR . 5 1 .40 .88 .69 BLULAB .29 . 21 .72 .56 WHILAB .60 .48 .85 .66 EMPLOY .02 - . 0 2 .16 .05 BLUEMP - . 1 1 - . 0 6 - ; 1 1 - . 0 5 WHIEMP .11 . 03 .27 .08 RETEMP .15 - . 0 2 .24 . 01 i n c l u d e d , (as e x p e c t e d ) b u t an u n e x p e c t e d p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p when V a n c o u v e r zones o n l y a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s . T h i s i s a c t u a l l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h W o l f o r t h ' s d i s c o v e r y o f a " f r i c t i o n f r e e " zone i n t h e i n n e r c i t y o v e r w h i c h movement t o t h e c o r e does n o t v a r y w i t h d i s t a n c e b u t r a t h e r w i t h s o c i a l c l a s s c h a r a c t e r o f u r b a n d i s t r i c t s . I t i s a l s o c o n s i s t e n t w i t h H a r d w i c k ' s c o r e r i n g m o d e l , s i n c e i t i m p l i e s a " d i s t a n c e t h r e s h o l d " beyond w h i c h c o n n e c t i o n s t o t h e c o r e may be i m p o r t a n t . From t h e c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s e s , i n d i c a t i o n s a r e g i v e n t h a t some o f t h e e x p e c t e d a s s o c i a t i o n s be tween i n d e p e n d e n t . ' • . ' 81 v a r i a b l e s and t r i p vo lumes a r e t e n a b l e . T r a n s i t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f p o p u l a t i o n a r e f o u n d t o be h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d ( p o s i t i v e l y ) w i t h t r i p o r i g i n s t o ^ t h e c o r e . Employment c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were n o t i m p o r t a n t . Mode c h o i c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (AUTOAV and MEDINC) were n o t as i m p o r t a n t t o t r a n s i t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n as e x p e c t e d , i n d i c a t e d by l o w c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . D i s t a n c e f r o m t h e c o r e d i d n o t d e m o n s t r a t e a s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p , and was f o u n d t o be n e g a t i v e o n l y when t h e more d i s t a n t p e r i p h e r a l r i n g zones were i n c l u d e d . As r e m a r k e d , t h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f d i s t a n c e may be c o n s t a n t and n e g l i g i b l e w i t h i n t h e i n n e r c i t y o f V a n c o u v e r , and beyond V a n c o u v e r i n f l u e n t i a l t o a l i m i t e d e x t e n t . I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o r i s among t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e s a i d t o e x i s t when c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r e a c h v a r i a b l e w i t h o t h e r i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e h i g h . ( T a b l e 11) T h i s m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y among i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , a l t h o u g h n o t c r i t i c a l t o t h e p r e d i c t i v e power o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l , a f f e c t s t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e a d d i t i v e v a l u e s o f c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r e a c h v a r i a b l e i n t h e e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n . T h i s l i m i t s t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e e q u a t i o n , f o r i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d i s c e r n w h i c h v a r i a b l e i s c r i t i c a l t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n . The h i g h d e g r e e o f a s s o c i a t i o n among t h e g r o u p s o f v a r i a b l e s c o n s i d e r e d h e r e s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e y do i n f a c t v a r y t o g e t h e r , and one o f e a c h g r o u p may be c o n s i d e r e d 82 TABLE 11 -" CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FOR INDEPENDENT VARIABLES a) A L L ZONES 1 VARIABLES ' 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1) DISTAN 1.00 2) POPLTN .45 1.00 3) HSHLDS .26 .94 1.00 4) AUTOAV .72 .40 .26 1.00 5) MEDINC .44 .27 .27 .79 1.00 6) LABFOR .37 .98 .98 . 33 .27 1.00 7) BLULAB .49 .93 .82 .29 .08 .90 1.00 8) WHILAB .25 .91 .98 .32 .36 .96 .73 1.00 9) EMPLOY .19 .48 .49 -.10 -.07 .49 .48 .44 1.00 10)BLUEMP .02 .11 .07 -.26 -.33 .09 .18 .18 .51 1.00 11JWHIEMP .18 .46 .53 -.01 .11 .51 .42 .50 .87 .15 1.00 12)RETEMP .10 -.10 -.09 •01 .01 -.08 -.04 -.10 -.12 -.22 -.04 1.00 b) VANCOUVER ZONES VARIABLES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 .10 11 12 1) DISTAN 1.00 2.) POPLTN .57 1.00 3) HSHLDS . .36 .94 1.00 4) AUTOAV .82 .53 .42 1.00 5) MEDINC .60 .42 .42 .91 1.00 6) LABFOR .46 .98 .98 .47 .41 1.00 7) BLULAB .57 .86 .73 .32 .13 .82 1.00 8) WHILAB .35 .91 .98 .49 .50 .96 .63 1.00 9) EMPLOY .10 .24 .25 -.02 -.02 .27 .24 .25 1.00 10)BLUEMP -.09 .03 -.04 -.22 -.29 -.01 .13 .07 .56 1.00 1DWHIEMP .20 .24 .33 .19 .24 .31 .17 .34 .75 .01 1.00 12)RETEMP .13 .15 .12 .01 .01 .14 .25 .07 .09 -.24 .06 1.00 83 representative of the other. The selection'of that which i s most representative of i t s group would require factor analysis. For the purposes of t h i s t h e s i s , we can simply recognize by"visual inspection that among the 12 v a r i a b l e s , i t appears that s i x independent groups of variables are formed for " a l l zones": 1) distance and automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y ; 2) population, households, labour force, b l u e . c o l l a r , labour force and white c o l l a r labour force; 3) automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y and median family income; 4) employment and white c o l l a r employment; 5) blue c o l l a r employment; 6) r e t a i l employment; and for Vancouver zones, f i v e independent groups of variables are formed: 1) distance, population, automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y and median family income; 2) population, labour force, blue c o l l a r labour force, and white c o l l a r labour force; • " •- -3) automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y and median family income; 4) employment, blue c o l l a r employment and white c o l l a r employment; 5) r e t a i l employment. These groups are expected to vary together, and to be represented by the most s i g n i f i c a n t variable i n each group i n 84 e q u a t i o n s s o l v e d by t h e b a c k w a r d s s t e p w i s e r e g r e s s i o n p r o c e d u r e . . 3) Backwards S t e p w i s e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s o f Bus P a s s e n g e r • T r i p ' O r i g i n s t o t h e C o r e a) A l l Z o n e s : ( i ) Work T r i p s (Computer P r i n t o u t #1) S i x t y - t w o p e r c e n t o f t r a n s i t work t r i p s t o t h e c o r e were e x p l a i n e d by p o p u l a t i o n , l a b o u r f o r c e and w h i t e - c o l l a r employment , w i t h a s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f e s t i m a t e o f 249 t r i p s . The e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n i s : Work t r i p s (Y) = 1 0 2 . 5 1 - . 8 9 (POPLTN) + 2 . 8 3 (LABFOR) - . 4 6 (WHIEMP) + o r - r e s i d u a l ( i i ) S h o p p i n g T r i p s (Computer P r i n t o u t #2) F i f t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f t r a n s i t s h o p p i n g t r i p s t o t h e c o r e were e x p l a i n e d by p o p u l a t i o n , h o u s e h o l d s , and w h i t e c o l l a r e m p l o y m e n t , w i t h a s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f e s t i m a t e o f 131 t r i p s . The e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n i s : S h o p p i n g t r i p s (Y) = 7 3 . 0 8 - . 2 0 (POPLTN) + . 93 (HSHLDS) - . 2 6 (WHIEMP) + o r -r e s i d u a l b) V a n c o u v e r Z o n e s : ( i ) Work T r i p s (Computer P r i n t o u t #3) E i g h t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f t r a n s i t ' work t r i p s t o t h e c o r e were e x p l a i n e d by p o p u l a t i o n , a u t o m o b i l e a v a i l a b i l i t y , med ian i n c o m e , employment and w h i t e c o l l a r e m p l o y m e n t , w i t h a s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f . e s t i m a t e o f 188 t r i p s . The e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n i s : Work t r i p s (Y) = 5 1 . 0 8 + . 39 (POPLTN) - 9 .94 (AUTOAV) "• +.14 ( M E D I N C ) - . 4 7 (EMPLOY) + . 57 (WHIEMP) + o r -r e s i d u a l ( i i ) S h o p p i n g T r i p s (Computer P r i n t o u t #4) S i x t y - e i g h t p e r c e n t o f t r a n s i t s h o p p i n g t r i p s t o t h e c o r e were e x p l a i n e d by h o u s e h o l d s , l a b o u r f o r c e , and b l u e c o l l a r l a b o u r f o r c e , w i t h a s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f e s t i m a t e o f 127 t r i p s . The e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n i s : S h o p p i n g t r i p s (Y) = 8 .46+1 .82 (HSHLDS) - 1 . 4 7 (LABFOR) + . 93 (BLULAB) + o r - r e s i d u a l The i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e a c h i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o t h e e x p l a n a t i o n c a n n o t be d e t e r m i n e d f r o m t h e s e e q u a t i o n s b e c a u s e n e i t h e r p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s n o r s t a n d a r d i z e d r e g r e s s i o n (beta) c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e p r o v i d e d by t h e c o m p u t e r programme. S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n o f t h e d a t a f o r a l l v a r i a b l e s w o u l d have a l l o w e d f o r t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f each v a r i a b l e . H i g h c o e f f i c i e n t s o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n (RSQ) were o b t a i n e d i n a l l c a s e s , b u t l a r g e s t a n d a r d e r r o r s o f e s t i m a t e r e s u l t e d , r e d u c i n g t h e e x p l a n a t i o n . Some t h e o r e t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s were i n c l u d e d i n t h e f i n a l e q u a t i o n s f o r e a c h c a s e . Work t r i p s from Vancouver zones to the core'had the highest explanation and retained the most variables in, the equation. The influence on modal s p l i t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of income and automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y were indicated by the i n c l u s i o n of these variables i n the equation. A l l equations included population and labour force v a r i a b l e s , i n d i c a t i n g that the re l a t i o n s h i p suggested by the notion of complementarity was tenable. The i n c l u s i o n of white c o l l a r employment as a negative c o e f f i c i e n t - i n work and shopping t r i p s from a l l zones but as a p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t for work t r i p s from Vancouver zones cannot be interpreted from a p r i o r i notions, or from regression r e s u l t s . The elimination of r e t a i l employment from the shopping t r i p s equations suggests that the expected inverse r e l a t i o n -ship of r e t a i l employment opportunities to t r a n s i t shopping t r i p s to the core i s not tenable for the case study data. The i n c l u s i o n of modal s p l i t influences which favour t r a n s i t r i d e r s h i p i n only one equation suggests that ei t h e r t r a n s i t r i d i n g i n the study area does not conform to conceptual notions of factors held to be s i g n i f i c a n t i n t r a n s i t t r i p generation, or there are data c o l l e c t i o n unit problems. The elimination of distance i n a l l cases indicates that distance decay i s not s i g n i f i c a n t i n structuring t r i p s within the t r a n s i t system when t h i s powerful s t a t i s t i c a l technique i s used. 87 Before conclusions are drawn on these findings, an analysis of regression equation residuals w i l l serve to indicate patterns of unexplained v a r i a t i o n , which could lead to "the ' i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of further independent va r i a b l e s , and provide further understanding of the regression r e s u l t s discussed above." 4) Analysis of Residuals From Regression Residuals are the differences between the value of the dependent variables, as calculated by the regression equation, and what i s a c t u a l l y observed. They represent the amount of v a r i a t i o n i n the dependent variable which the equation has not been able to explain. In. the four cases examined above, i t was shown that although there were high RSQ values for each equation, ( p a r t i c u l a r l y the Vancouver only cases) there were also high standard errors of estimate. These standard errors are calculated from the r e s i d u a l s , and measure the dispersion of unexplained v a r i a t i o n about the regression equation. The wider the dispersion, the higher the standard error of estimate w i l l be. An examination of residuals for i n d i v i d u a l t r a f f i c zones i n each of the four cases indicates that t r a n s i t volumes i n some zones do not f i t the,pattern of explanation given by the independent variable included i n the equation. An examination of residuals i s thus important to the i s o l a t i o n of forces which could be associated with t h i s unexplained 88 v a r i a t i o n , as i n d i c a t e d by h i g h r e s i d u a l v a l u e s . A mapping t e c h n i q u e i s employed t o i l l u s t r a t e w h e t h e r p a t t e r n s i n d i c a t i v e o f s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n o c c u r among t h e (4) r e s i d u a l s . Map v a l u e s a r e d e r i v e d by s t a n d a r d i z i n g t h e r e s i d u a l s t o a l l o w f o r c o m p a r i s o n o f zones and c a s e s . S i x p o s i t i v e and s i x n e g a t i v e c l a s s e s were d e r i v e d f o r mapping r e s i d u a l s i n e a c h o f t h e f o u r c a s e s ( T a b l e 1 2 ) . The s t a n d a r d i z e d v a l u e s f o r e a c h zone i n e a c h o f t h e f o u r c a s e s a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e 1-3. P o s i t i v e r e s i d u a l s r e p r e s e n t c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e l e s s t h a n o b s e r v e d , and n e g a t i v e r e s i d u a l s r e p r e s e n t t h e c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t o b s e r v e d . TABLE 12 STANDARDIZED CLASSES FOR RESIDUALS OF REGRESSION A L L ZONES VANCOUVER ZONES WORK SHOPPING WORK SHOPPING TRIPS TRIPS TRIPS TRIPS STANDARD RESIDUAL RESIDUAL RESIDUAL RESIDUAL CLASS CLASS CLASS CLASS CLASS (+or-) (+or-) 0- .5 0-123 0 - 64 0 - 93 0- 62 . 5 - 1 . 0 124-248 65-130 94-187 62-126 1 . 1 - 1 . 5 249-373 131-196 188-281 127-190 1 . 5 - 2 . 0 374-497 197-261 282-375 191-253 2 . 0 - 2 . 5 498-622 262-327 376-469 254-317 2 . 5 - 3 . 0 623-747 328-393 470-564 317-381 89 TABLE 13 STANDARDIZED RESIDUALS OF REGRESSION ALL ZONES VANCOUVER ZONES WORK SHOPPING WORK SHOPPING. PRINTOUT CODE TRIPS TRIPS TRIPS TRIPS ZONE SEY=249 SEY=131 SEY=188 SEY=127 01 1 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 02 2 0.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 04 3 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -1.0 15-18 4 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 19-20-26 5 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.5 21-25 6 . 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 22 7 -0.0 -0.0 0.5 -0.0 23-29 8 -0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 24-28 9 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -0.0 27AB 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 30 11 1.5 -0.5 1.0 -1.0 31 12 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 32 13 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 33 14 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 34 15 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 35A 16 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 35B 17 -0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 36 18 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 37 19 -0.0 -0.0 -1.5 -0.5 38 20 1.0 0.0 0.5 -0.5 39 21 1.5 0.0 1.0 -0.5 40 22 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.0 41 23 2.5 2.5 1.0 2.0 42 24 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 43 25 -0.5 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 44 26 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -0,5 45 27 -0.0 0.0 46 28 -0.0 0.0 47 29 -1.5 -1.0 48 30 -1.0 -0.5 49 31 -0.5 -0.5 50 32 -0.0 -0.0 51 33 -0.0 -0.0 52 34 -2.0 -0.5 62 35 -0.5 -0.5 63 36 0.5 -0.0" 64 37 -0.0 -0.5 65 38 -0.0 -0.5 66 39 -0.0 -0.0 67 40 -0.0 -0.0 68 41 -0.5 0.0 90 • a) A l l Zones . ( i ) Work T r i p s ( v a r i a b l e s i n ' e q u a t i o n : POPLTN, LABFOR, WHIEMP). F i g u r e 12 i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e V a n c o u v e r a r e a i s g e n e r a l l y u n d e r - p r e d i c t e d , w h i l e t h e p e r i p h e r a l a r e a s a r e o v e r - p r e d i c t e d . The p a t t e r n s u g g e s t s t h a t d i s t a n c e and s o c i o - e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a r e o p e r a t i n g . A l l zones o u t s i d e o f V a n c o u v e r a r e o v e r - e s t i m a t e d , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t w h i l e d i s t a n c e d e c a y i s e f f e c t i v e i n s t r u c t u r i n g work t r i p s f r o m t h e s e z o n e s , b e c a u s e o f t h e l o w t r i p v o l u m e s t h e d i s t a n c e v a r i a b l e was n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n . W i t h i n V a n c o u v e r b o t h u n d e r and o v e r - e s t i m a t i o n o c c u r s . H i g h l y u n d e r - e s t i m a t e d a r e a s o c c u r i n b o t h t h e e a s t e r n s e c t o r s o f t h e c i t y and K i t s i l a n o . T h i s c o u l d be a t t r i b u t a b l e t o h i g h e r r i d e r s h i p by l o w e r income, g r o u p s i n t h e s e a r e a s , ( i i ) S h o p p i n g T r i p s ( v a r i a b l e s i n e q u a t i o n : POPLTN, HSHLDS, WHIEMP) A s i m i l a r p a t t e r n f o r work t r i p s e x i s t s , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f N o r t h and C e n t r a l B u r n a b y , w h i c h a r e u n d e r - p r e d i c t e d i n t h i s c a s e , and some w e s t e r n V a n c o u v e r zones w h i c h become u n d e r - p r e d i c t e d w i t h t h e use o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s . More t r i p s p e r c a p i t a , o r p e r h o u s e h o l d , a r e g e n e r a t e d i n e a s t e r n zones t h a n V a n c o u v e r Z o n e s V a n c o u v e r Z o n e s RESIDUALS FROM REGRESSION F i g u r e 12 the equation accounts f o r . There are less t r i p s i n west ce n t r a l and most peripheral zones than are accounted for by these varia b l e s . Inconsistent socio-economic v a r i a t i o n i n zonal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s appears to be operating as does distance, but the l a t t e r to a le s s e r extent. No further variable can be i d e n t i f i e d , b) Vancouver Zones Only (i) Work Trips (variables i n equation: POPLTN, AUTOAV, MEDINC, EMPLOY, WHIEMP) Figure 12 also shows almost the same pattern as the "work t r i p s from a l l zones" model, despite the in c l u s i o n of variables i n d i c a t i v e of modal s p l i t , •i which are also surrogate for socio-economic c l a s s . However, both eastern and western sectors of the c i t y are under-estimated, i n d i c a t i n g that socio-economic v a r i a t i o n and automobile ownership does not'have a constant e f f e c t on t r a n s i t t r i p generation to the core from over the Ci t y of Vancouver! The force of distance appears to be inconsistent as we l l , with both over and under-prediction occurring at d i f f e r e n t distances. Forces too fin e to be i s o l a t e d by aggregate data analysis appear to be i n e f f e c t here, ( i i ) Shopping Trips (variables i n equation HSHLD, LABFOR, BLULAB) 93 Again a p a t t e r n s i m i l a r to the " a l l - z o n e s shopping • t r i p s model" o c c u r s , w i t h the e x c e p t i o n o f more o v e r -p r e d i c t i o n i n the E a s t Hastings s e c t o r and the F r a s e r • -• •,' area. The s o u t h - e a s t s e c t o r , i n n e r west and c e n t r a l areas were u n d e r - p r e d i c t e d . The p a t t e r n does not suggest a b a s i c cause f o r over or u n d e r - p r e d i c t i o n but i n d i c a t e s t h a t v a r i a t i o n o c c u r s a c r o s s s o c i o -economic and d i s t a n c e parameters. Here again the l e v e l o f data a g g r e g a t i o n appears to be i n s u f f i c i e n t f o r the i s o l a t i o n of s u r r o g a t e c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t r a n s i t g e n e r a t i o n r a t e s and p a r t i c u l a r f o r c e s . The r e s i d u a l s from a l l f o u r equations, i n d i c a t e t h a t unexplained v a r i a t i o n i n the p a t t e r n o f t r a n s i t t r i p s t o the core r e f l e c t s f a c t o r s t o do w i t h socio-economic c h a r a c t e r and urban areas and d i s t a n c e i n some i n s t a n c e s , but not i n a c o n s t a n t manner. T h i s suggests t h a t o t h e r f o r c e s are a t work i n s t r u c t u r i n g t r a n s i t t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o the core which are not accounted f o r by the independent v a r i a b l e s , or by the a g g r e g a t i o n of these v a r i a b l e s t o the t r a f f i c zone l e v e l . S U M M A R Y C o r r e l a t i o n , backwards stepwise r e g r e s s i o n and a n a l y s i s of r e s i d u a l s from r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s were te c h n i q u e s used to t e s t the a s s o c i a t i o n o f twelve independent v a r i a b l e s w i t h t r a n s i t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n f o r work and shopping to core zones o f Vancouver. Work and shopping t r i p types were analyzed from 94 a l l zones served by the t r a n s i t system, and a s p e c i a l case of Vancouver city, zones only was ' S e l e c t e d . The Vancouver zones case was i s o l a t e d as one way of determining i f Vancouver i t s e l f (the inner c i t y of the metro area) has a d i f f e r e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p with the core than do more peripheral areas of the metropolitan system. • Of the twelve independent variables used, only house-holds, labour force and white c o l l a r labour force were found to have c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s greater than .50 with work t r i p o r i g i n s from a l l 41 zones. This was encouraging, since i t indicated that the number of persons t r a v e l l i n g to work by bus was associated with variables suggesting the supply side of the complementarity notion. No variables had a c o r r e l a t i o n greater than +.50 with shopping t r i p s to the core from a l l zones. However, some i n d i c a t i o n of complementarity was shown, since households and white c o l l a r labour force had a c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t of +.48 for t h i s case. I s o l a t i n g Vancouver zones only, work t r i p volumes to the core were found to be highly associated with a number of the independent variables including population, households, labour force, blue c o l l a r labour force and white c o l l a r labour force. For the shopping t r i p case the same f i v e variables were found to have somewhat lower c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , but these a l l remained above .50. Variables which were expected to have a r e l a t i o n s h i p with t r a n s i t t r i p generation to the core such as distance, median family income, and automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y a c t u a l l y a l l had very low c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . This indicated that the t r a n s i t generation rates to the core i n the inner area served by public t r a n s i t appeared to be r e l a t i v e l y i n s e n s i t i v e to distance, or to socio-economic v a r i a t i o n s (measured by income and automobile ownership). This finding was strengthened by l a t e r analysis. P r i o r to examining the regression equations, i n t e r -c o r r e l a t i o n s among the independent variables were pointed out. Several groups of variables were i d e n t i f i e d . Generally, r e s i d e n t i a l zone measures of population and labour force were found to vary together (indicated by high c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s between variables i n each group). Automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y and income were also correlated, as were employment var i a b l e s , with the exception of r e t a i l employment. The s i g n i f i c a n c e of these i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s to the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the regression equations was not great since the backwards stepwise elimination process selected only one or two variables from each group. Limitations i n computer printout information did not allow for further consideration of i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n problems, but these were not important to the l e v e l of i n t e r p r e t a t i o n sought i n this' t h e s i s . The regression equations solved by the backwards stepwise regression procedures gave explanations with high 96 RSQ values, but t h e i r power was l i m i t e d by accompanying high standard errors of estimate. The notable absence of the automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y and income variables from the models (fbund important i n other urban areas i n a f f e c t i n g t r a n s i t generation) also made acceptance of the explanation given by the regression equations open to question. Population, households and/or labour force per t r a f f i c zone, as well as white c o l l a r employment, provided the explanation of t r i p volumes i n almost a l l cases. Trips per capita as a dependent variable may have provided better explanatory equations since the patterns for Figures 8 and 12 are comparable. A comparison of the r e s u l t s for a l l zones and for the Vancouver zones only" analysis, indicated that greater RSQ and lower standard errors of estimate could be obtained by modelling t r i p s o r i g i n s from Vancouver zones only. In the case of work t r i p s from Vancouver zones, automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y and median family income were included i n the estimating equation, i n d i c a t i n g that s o c i a l class was a factor i n f l u e n c i n g core t r i p generation at t h i s scale. Mapping of the standardized residuals f a i l e d to indicate any patterns of res i d u a l v a r i a t i o n a t t r i b u t a b l e to i d e n t i f i a b l e forces. In some cases distance and socio-economic forces appeared to be operating i n str u c t u r i n g t r a n s i t t r i p o r i g i n s ; however, patterns were rather inconsistent. Distance operated i n some areas and not others, 97 a s , d i d s o c i a l s e c t o r a l v a r i a t i o n . The p r o b l e m o f u s i n g z o n a l a v e r a g e s f o r s p e c i f i c t r i p t y p e , ' t r i p d e s t i n a t i o n and moda l t y p e i s i n d i c a t e d as t h e m a j o r cause f o r f a i l u r e t o s u c c e s s -f u l l y m o d e l t r a n s i t t r i p s t o t h e c o r e u s i n g t h e v a r i a b l e s and t e c h n i q u e s employed i n t h i s t h e s i s . T h i s p r o b l e m w i l l be t h e f o c u s o f a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e d i r e c t i o n f o r f u r t h e r work i n C h a p t e r 5 . FOOTNOTES • D r a p e r , R . , and S m i t h , H . , A p p l i e d R e g r e s s i o n  A n a l y s i s , W i l e y , New Y o r k , 1966 , p p . 1 7 1 - 1 7 2 . (2) v B j e r r m g , J . H . , D e m p s t e r , J . R . H . , and H a l l , R . H . , U . B . C . T r i p ( T r i a n g u l a r R e g r e s s i o n P a c k a g e ) , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e , V a n c o u v e r , 1969 . (3) v C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , M e t r o p o l i t a n  V a n c o u v e r : 1 9 5 5 , 1965 and 1 9 8 5 : S e l e c t e d D a t a From t h e  V a n c o u v e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y , M a r c h , 1967 . See a l s o u n p u b l i s h e d w o r k i n g p a p e r s p r e p a r e d by t h e C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t f o r t h e V a n c o u v e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y . (4) F o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s t e c h n i q u e r e f e r t o : Thomas, E d w i n , "Maps o f R e s i d u a l s From R e g r e s s i o n " , B e r r y and M a r b l e , e d s . , S p a t i a l A n a l y s i s : A Reader i n S t a t i s t i c a l  G e o g r a p h y , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , 1 9 6 8 , p p . 3 2 6 - 3 5 2 . COMPUTER PRINTOUT #1 BUS PASSENGER WORK TRIPS TO THE C O R E — A L L ZONES c CCMRCl CARO \C. 1 * INMSOf » < -1 "UA FCRKAT V. M1F5.0) • J IMPUT O/TA wcRnct< BLUEMP OISTAN WHIEfP PCPLTM RETEMP r-SKCS AJ'OAV KEOINC IABFCW P.IULAP. KHltAB EMPLOY O.C C.C 10.00 1C.C0 0.0 5.00C 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.00 995.0 74.OC 10.00 296.0 1500. 36.OC . 902.0 t2. ':o 547C. eic.c 13(1.0 673.0 370.0 5ec.c 3H.0C 10.00 342.0 1519. 16.CC 836.C 54.CC 4900. 897.C ' 161.0 735.0 3BO.0 143.0 735.C 15.00 235.0 954.0 65.0C 189.0 • 42.CC 3035. 31H.C 138.0 IBO.O 970.0 27.00 377.C 15.T50 133.0 313.0 10.00 122.0 •. 5J.CC 3645. 132.0 62.CO 71 .00 490 .0 125.0 297. C 15.00 313.0 230.0 35.00 84.00 f tt.ee 4270. 97.00 46.00 52 .00 610.0 0.0 495.C 15.00 55.CC 0.0 0.0 O.C 1 47.CO 1 368C. 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 50 .0 620.0 292.C 2C.00 568.C 1294. 94.00 698.0 * ' 55.CC 1 462C. 722.0 127.0 596. C 860.0 76.00 155.C 20.00 '1C05. 598.0 43 -00 247.C , 4 64.CO 41PC. 3C3.0 67.00 216.0 1160. 272.0 44C.0 20.00 256. C 639.C • 36.00 315.c ; .' 7B.0C 4380. 361.0 155.0 206.0 3 20.C 1558 . 173.C 20.00 872.C 3236. . 163.0 1278. 75.OC 5C7C. 1521. 365.0 1156. 100C. 418.C • le.co • 25.00 342.0 1122. 57. CC 359.0 119.0 69C0. 449.C 63.00 38 6.0 360 .0 • 18.CC 30.0C 32.00 9.CCO 40.00 651.0 30.00 171.0 293.0 4. COC 1434. 56.CC 86.C 425.0 151.0 132.0 7890. 6970. 123.C 559. C 11.00 1C0.O 112.0 459.0 590.C 180.0 748.C b.CQC 25.00 114.0 .97?. i27.CC &OB.0 131. C 7R00. 789.C 110.0 67H .0 120.0 5C.0C 1A.CC V 25.00 257.0 794. C 148.C ib\.0 P9.CC 5ccc; 334. C 107.0 227.0 270.0 ,,, J ( 338.C 61.OC 2 5. CO 256.0 1620: 67.CC '00.0 87.00 1820. 651. U 267.0 381.0 320.0 s 51C. C •. 27.00 30.00 213. C 1137. 161.C 131.0 86.00 '1870. • 575.C 259.0 316.0 270.0 * / 3'. S.C 1fl,.CC 25.00 192.0 1297. 161.C 120.0 58.00 187C, 532.C 215.0 287.0 " 240.0 < 1C3.C 385 . 0 25.00 ses.o 890.0 29.CO 293.0 58.00 1160. 317.C ,167.0 : ln i.o 770.0 8C3.C 66.CC 25.00 261.C 188A. 3C3.C ' seo.c 86.00 1820. 735.C 338.0 397.0 330 .0 361.C 215.C 30.00 365.0 1330. ,. 129.C • t 1C1 .C f8 . C C 1850. 519.C 211 . 0 275.0 610.0 1311 . . 51.CC 35.00 297.C 3320. 5.CCC 96H.C 1C1.0 5000. 1295. 583.0 712.0 350 .0 1C23. 396.C 10.00 213.0 3860. 89.CJ • 1130. • ne.c 525C. 1167. 572.0 895.0 610.0 675.0 576.C 35 .00 565.C 3551. 8.0 .0 1C71. 109.0 5210. 1157. 583.0 871.0 . i n c . . 598.C 215.C. 35.00 165.0 1096 . 29.CC 1161. 119.0 7B1C. 1639. 266.0 1376. 710.0 523.C 1C.0C 35.00 321.C 3 w r . I : .CC 895.C 130.0 5500. 1185. 198.0 6118 .0 360 .0 212.C 65.CC 35.00 721.C 35 7 7 . j1 . C C 929.C 129.0 5520. 1273. 509.0 . 761 .0 1370. 1C7.C 3C1.C 10.00 " 749.C 1)71. 36.OC 1260. 127.C "551C". 1585. 61 8.0 96 7 .0 10SO. 8.COO 115.C 55.00 U 5 . 0 991.0 ' ' 51.CC 302.0 82.CC . 5 l l C . 3P8.C 193.0 191.0 530 .0 O.C 352. C 55.00 u i e . 2695. 93.0C 960.0 e3.cc 519C. 1105. 398.0 707 .0 1770. 10.00 387.C 60.00 . 611.0 5620. 10.00 13.52. 111.c 552C. 1855. 816.0 1039. 1030. 0.0 352. C 15 . 0 0 88.00 186.0 139.0 51. CC 152.C 5220. 67.00 20.00 17.00 110.0 83.00 2ee. c 55.00 172.0 1576. •15.00 1165. 152.C 523C. 1691. 813.0 381 .0 760.0 l 11.0 93.CC 35.00 . 217.0 17 30. 39.00 158.C 171.0 635C. 61U.0 111.0 199 .0 310.0 351.0 1C5.C 30.00 \ 215.0 1108. 65.00 312.C 1P3.C 5150. 132.0 151.0 281.0 350.0 J o VD VO •100 > a * C ' — CC —• CO • © O O o o <: O -g- <M r -* * • o %r —4 o cr © o o o o — o <r o u> o r - . o o o * • • • "<Nt — c - o c o t cc O O N IT. r g < r*. j - , ^ , p -o r-i r - ec r o <r o o o o o CJ r - c o • • • • • • r g * n r - r - CM — a - o c c* o o rO o o r - 1 ^ r g r g r o CL o - c ° J o r 1 c r g o >r c x >c —4 u . o c <x x o CD X o ^* <r o IT. u < • • • • • • o O o o o _ i —« o o o o c . o . o • • • • 1 • m o l A V * o <_> * 4 - * o <^ 5 ^ <r o o z r g X\ =o m —I a is. =5 o O o - V o ^ ^ m —. U J • X — ' O O O 3 O O o • CJ> o . - i * 1 * O r o eg 3D • m r -CNI r o m -> r*". r - r - i n r - <f < o e O r o d r - O — ro C J X r - i c r —. a -o —' — i o r - cr. r g ro o rg c o — J • • • • • • • • • <1 o o o o c 1 1 I o • • # o o O u - r - •o o C J * m J l .IT i M f i - J S p»t u . O m r - IT. uu eu O * n »r IN* O 7> f\i IT r . ; x o m i n r - i n U I _ J O u ^ r - co i \ ; f-. cj . r - r r 'cc U J c J . O N ( M L T CL: O" NT C IT' c - Cy Irt • • • • • • • • • ' • U J • X ^ e c o o o o o c o I X 1 o c . o «• "... o o U J o o o o O z CD t r r t i—• o o t r —• -o r g D_ o —« a • cr • • » • K- O o o ^ CM O —* < r - r~. r r X O cv. o •4* «/> _ J c . u > Uj n r< r Q <- 0* U J c i <r • r— O - eg r - O - O u" r g C O - NT — • C / k - o o • V I L J * • • • <1 ' X • . • iL> a ~ * c * c> c O O O o o <-> o U J J E —< o r— * 1 1 o c U J X u . u U J a u~ -J U J * r o —« c r - i n s ^ O ff r " i n U J C L o o ~« U J •c O i f i - J N -x c o cc o ' < * ' n . CJ O ff o o O o o O t— o m gj —• >f gj a- %r X r g cc C J U J O -J" r g - J • o V ) O -g* C-g p - %r n i gr r g —* o — _ J O - • r g <1 o C O r g r - z • - J • • • Z ff- Cr rsj m r - C J —• O c^  o o o o o c o c> o CJ CO — o o O t—» r g r v 1 C7 H *^ < < - J o U J U J m CH JE o OU g; IT (v. I s - ff c ; N o m cc > o P - <o - i l o cn c «n r g <J co r - c r N -g* o o ^ (NI a . O o cr cr — z U D «_) u» O r - r - >T U O U ' f \J H - m C J « j O C J -O r g • * >,r o rsj ^- u • o — U~ fs.1 IT O —* — . c ; • a O X —* O c a © c o o o o • o o o w X • • • • z. , z • o • o • o CO • • ^ »-< o o o o c o o o o o o O u . ^ - i o o o C J <M • • 1 1 t 1 o a . c S T r - r o cc o CC m o m -o of a : gO m c r cr OO r - <-« < U J • <: X • a : C3 C J a o _ J o - J LL) o C J c u.- cc er f - >-V I u . • r g rO • OV -O t N H H i f . 1ft O. r g r o co r g z CO z < Z • I A C • —« r - --4 c : • • • — J D < c b o " * © o o o o o o '~f U . * o • CJ) C • 3- O r - O r 4 -o ^ • g^ — • u c o o o » o V - o <-> — u cr m c H r r g «-i >r cr c r cr r g c r v ff rv. •— o JL • • i n « a • • >— r o <-> < ^ — m r g r o r o —« r g •O r o —« r g O X U J vn JC O r - m o i n m m • o - <1 V . JE _ J - J r o C M r o •s* c r •v? o m ~-> <-u'^  u.- U J u . CC U J o > cc _ a t or *- U J U i cc lT> O o —J <1 CC U J -O »-- C J o O O • r o • <r ur» gj «J UJ ct • —• eu • t v- • • • • * m gr < • • • * T o o U J m • -g- uu O r i ^ r\j n < ff co • U J <r v co « X . <l > X m w r * >r c <^  ff- vT ^ C IT - J cc X <• t r vt m U J »— o o o o C J © o o o m m —( UI r - UI C N < - 1 r ; o « t —' r o * J z 1 • * « o • CI • o © o U J U J c r - r o • o u o * * - J u 00 ir\ m * • r o o 3C ^ 2 > L a o a > a . o . a. >• & . OL O . CO a r— *~* r g _* m C J i c < i r ! u < c u i i ( J J 1 3L < u . Q. U J D « l _ J o — U - J W J U J ^ U J u . J U J L U U I a . U J m X OC »-o a . JL » - C3 CJ J I i J - a. D . O »- cc o a < O * - a wi 3 H J < _ i X a- —I X u j • < 1 J I L U o <: 3 : O Q . J . < x ^ cc 2 O J cc J E a U J CO J C CX J \ • THE ABCVE VARIABLE I S A LINEAR.CCPEINATICN OF VAR IAPLES INCLUDED IN TMIS REGRESSION CEPENCENT VARIABLE IS ."5. .WCPCCW o ' STEP NO. I '. ' ' "' • v.- '. —-—• •—• • • :— ; ; — ' — S PSC m C.7149 • ' ~- J FFRC8. •m C.CCOO - , , ; • ' S i n FRR Y a- 244.6775 • ' V P COEF F STD ERR F-RATIO FPROB. • CONST.. . 53.7896 207.2654 CISTAN -9.008ft 5.4111 2.7716 C..1030 PCPLTN -0 .4835 . . 0.2555 3.5612 0.C654 c . r u t C.894 8 0.34530-03 0.9335 .AUTCAV -1 .«954 2.5943 0.59 16 0.4539 .^•STfECINC 0.0769 0.0590 1 .6528 C.2C63 -.- 'LAnr-oR 1.82C2 .1.1190 2.6456 0.1109 KlUL Ad C.C734 < 0.74 11 • C.9fC60-02 C. 8/146 •-C.2066 . , 0-3433 .' 0 . 3620 0.55^0 PI.UFMP 1 X . 137 2: C.3352 C.U76 C.6P67 . . . , k. 1-11 ^  p ' • -0.200 7: \ 0.4091 C.24C8 C.6323 ;' RETFMPj ' 1.269 5 " . 0.674R 3 .5390 0.0669 STEP.NO. 2 ' " I I ' ' - ' . RSC m\ C.7149 F . p p c e . *=• C.CCOC , STD ERR V m 240.5664 i . • • • • • • •• ' • - • ' '' ' '' .-' VAR COFFF STO ERR F-RATIC FPRCP. .' ' CCNST.' '-53.9369 203.6339 / • 01 STAN -9.CC98 • 5.3199 2.86P3 0.CO70 •' PCPLTN ' '; -C .4"44 C. 2466 3.8598 C.0560 ALTCAV. - -2.0110 .' 2.4143 0.6S38 C.4163 • . »EC INC' .'C.C771 . ' ; ' C.C577 ': 1.7874 . 0.1884 LAOFOR'. 1.8382 C.55C3 11.155e 0.0023 • • ' B L L L ' A B 'J 0.0669 •0.6415 0.0109 c e p i 5 . J . EM'LCV -C.2C74 . 0.3345 0.3844 •• . 0.5469 .... 7 El.UEPP ' <:. C.130C C.3 271 C. 1779 C.6784 WHI.E^P .*. 1 - C . 199.5 0.3972 0-2524 C.6244 RET'CHP •1/2693 0.6634 3.661C 0.C623 STFP NO. 3 ' i RSO • C.7148 \ FFRCE. m 0.0000 / STO ERR Y. a 236.6973 • .VAP COEF F STD ERR F-RATIO FFRCB. •'/ 'CCNST. 60-7938 . 189.6121 OISTAN -6.A23C . • 4.92P1 . . 3.2C53 0.0797 POPLTN. r,C.4715 C.2C95 5.C627 0.C3CI ALTCAV .' -2.0354 • 2.3643 . 0.7411 C.4CC2 KFDINC C.C749'.-'. 0.C530 1 .9077 •• 0.164! •. • I • O 102 g3 C <J H ^ OJ M l ^ u n r« m O u". ^ *V O o © © © © m f\i <o m m ^ C J m m f M w' in o •o ~ * CM c-• • • » • © © o m in <o N ^ u in r- —• c> r-m rj (\ CD >r m f>*» rn rn *o • • • • • C J u © © u r- oj <N t_> -r C O O - O CD ~« cr r-eo fM —* —« CM • • • • * . - « U © © I I > B U . O L U . J liJ LiJ U . O J Q . 3 - r -<V i ~> X UJ -j L U C J J I or • cn © - J ITS gj f-a.' m u-i fN, c • X c «c. L J c& <M -*J g; f i O C£ (J © m ~* •O r~. CJ Q- • • • • U. © o CJ c CJ O O CJ © >r ' .-« NT ' oe © ( M O © a m gj U J © © — in Q J rg <^~i o • • < rg -C o Pg —• c -c —• o °-I K H ' > or. u_ v u_ -<r — cc C J u. o o cj> r->J Ct. r - vT C ~< -J" ^ —• cj • • • • (_? fN r- I I V ) •— _ J K ^ Vt CL <l © — CJ > © c a. c- — •4 > -j* m -j- C H u < o r- « O cn fv O • • • • • rg <M o m c r- cr m r\i gj <\; *T eu I A Cg (\t 17- ( M Q u". rg f\i )^ • • • • * CJ o o CJ o u-. r- ~* — <r vT cr r- c^  r-r- >r O O rg cj cc —< r*-1 eg • • • • • C J •—• C J ' W I I u a > a a z t~> © x U_ _ J LU U_ C C (i r-U_ <1 a. J _ U J • a C • i o ff =c r- < u-C ni o < — r- r-^ . O J r\j u <r <r *n r-X CC fSl —* —' CJ <M HI >T O - <T w O © © cc m -* o «-• m to •£ iv © *?• *M • ' * • • a m iP- ffi H . - J u n U J © C r. P- H r\i i Q • • • • h- CM <T © rsi u. c f r\ I I C O C T Ui SC O C J co r- m y • Z Z > t— <i r~ <1 V< k- —I C a z c O —• <-» _ J j> o L J c cc f. m rn m m u*i r- © ( M r~ O w «M • • • • o —« © »-* I o or a a-^ © >: a-• U - l i J L J CC U J <I X U J 1. J J O . o —« • up O CO o o © r- C J • cc CD U J a C J OL © V ) rx r -or u. uo • c o I ^ cc -^ r- © O —• C =r o: cj © —i C J a. • • • • u_ © © o <-» r— o co r-•SJ © © U J v 3L.- V CT o f~ oe © sp m r- (M a tn rj o o ,>L u. H ffi co n x C J © * J u. rn ^ ^ CT- «O C «- f: t> o U J a; cj. m >r f\ i_i — r- in O C. © • • • * « r- o © © <M cc — | I i 2 7 U a c, a r - <L K- Z L . ZL ». (J -, r>— LL LU U J tt 2 i/i o. u d - >-J » U © Q . ~ CC f*-. *c © o © • • o © © U l"! PSC FPROR. STC ERR V -0.6189 C.OOOO 232.664C VAR \ CONST. CCEFF 224.3928 STO ERR 114.2CC9 F-RATIO • FPROB. :" t f CIST AN PCPLTN LAfiFOH WHEVP RETE«P -6 .3 199 -C.6248 2.2.U2 -C.3993 1.2216 3.67e5 0.1816 C.4715 0.1515 C.6155. 5.1155 11.8355 21.9506 6.9445 3.9391 C.C285, 0.C016. 0.0001 C.C12C C.0524 • • \ STEP NO. B RSQ FFPCB. STD ERR a Y » C .6539 0 .0000 241.9753 VAR CCNST. OISTAN POPLTN IAOFCR COEFF 269.6614 -6. 538P. -C.7C44 2.39 54 STO ERR 116.3782 3.71C1 C.1842 0.4808 F-RATIO • 3.1061 14.6169 24.8211 FPRCB. 0.C829 0.0006 C.CCOO WMEMP -C.4166 C 1 5 7 3 7.0123 0.0115 • STEP AC. 9 RSO C.624C FFP.CH. 510 ERR Y • C.CCOC 24£.7669 VAR CCSST. POPLTN COEFF 102.5144 -C.891C STD ERR 69.3422 C.1550 F-RATIC 33.0463 F F R C C C.OOOO • LACFOR , V.HEC P 2.833C -0.4570 | C. 4233 C.1600 44.7e67 8.1573 0.0000 C.CC69 \ * • •. J o . I—1 • NO. CBSERVEC CALCUIATEC RESICUAl NO. OBSERVED CALCULATED j KFSIOUAL; 1. 0.0 ?7.<;45 ' -<57.<:15 2. 995.00 °2r>.43 69.560 JU 5PC.CC H33 ..9 -553.95 ' 4 . 143.00 45.982 c 7 . C i n 1 5. 27.CCC 136.80 -lO-'.MO 6. 125.CO 29.345 95. 655 7. 0 .0 77.381 -77.3ei i Pi. 62C.C0 7 3 5 . 3 1 1 ' -115.38 9- 76.OCO - ' 1 . I F * 1C7.19 10. 272.00 260.67 .11.331 11. 1556.C 1129. 7 428.34 12. 41e.CC 2 1R.51 159.49 13. 13.000 -1C7.59 125,59 14. 32.CCC 330.29 -298.29 1 5 . 748.00 527.66 220.34 16. 5C.CC0 223.82 -173.82 17. 338 .CC 379.22 -41.221 13 . '' 540 .00 340.04 199. c(, 19. 345.CC 366.27 -21.270 20. 4C3.0C 1 16.<2 266. 38 21 . 803 .00 383.65 419.35 22. • 361.CO 22C.9P 140.02 -23. UI 1 .0 677.32 633.6e • 2'.. 1023.0 7C8.12 314.P8 • 25. 675.CC 8C5.3C -130.30 . 26. 998 .OC 863.67 114.33 27 . 5 7 l . C C 51? . 0 3 -9 .1)3 19 28. 212.CC 226.52 -14.519 29. 107 .00 534.08 -427.CO 30. 'B.CCCC 263.49 -255.49 31. 0.0 ie3.67 - 1 83. 6 7 . • 32 . 40.000 55.886 -15.886 0. C '86.381 -86.381 34. 83.CCC 6C8.59 -525. 59 .35. 114.CC 2 75 .00 ' -161.00 36. 354.CC 227.15 126.8 5 37. 187.00 , 189.56 - 2 . 5 5 5 ? 38. 187.CO 188.82 -1.H235 19. 156.CC 171.53 -15.531 40. 110.00 .195. 18 -P5.178 41. 13.CCC 158.97 -185.97 * END OF CONTROL SET * imp r. EXECUT ION TERM INATEO \ JSIG o COMPUTER PRINTOUT #2 BUS PASSENGER SHOPPING TRIPS. TO THE C O R E — A L L ZONES ( ' . — f CONTROL CARD NO. 1 * INr-SOC * DATA FCRfAT \. M3F5.n> f INPUT DATA s • SHOCOH BLUEMP OISTAN WH1EMP POPLTN RETEMP HSHLCS AUTCAV "ECINC LABFOR , PL UL AB WHILAB EMPLOY 26.00 0.0 10.CO 10.00 0.0 5.000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 C.C 1C.CC 791.C 74.00 1C.00 296.0 1500. 36.00. 902.0 . 62.00 5470. 810.0 138.0 673.C 370.C 223.0 38.00 K.OO 342 .0 1519. 16.00 836.C 54.00 4900. 897.0 161.0 735.C 380.C 151.C 735.0 15.00 235.0 554.0 65.00 189.0 ; 42.00 3035. 318.0 138.0 18C.C 970.C 28.00 377.0 15.-C0 133.0 313.C 10.OC 122.0 53.00 3645. 132.0 6 2.00 71.CC 490.C 68.00 297.0 . . 15.00 313.0 230.C 35.OC 84.00 4B.00 4270. 97.OC "46.00 52.CC 610.C C.C 495.0 15.CC 55.00 0.0 0.0 , 0.0 47 .00 3680. 0.0 C.C O.C 550.C 424.C 292.0 2C.C0 568.0 1294. 54.00 698.0 55.00 4620. 722.C 127.0 596.C 860.C 57.CC 155.0 2C.CC 1005. 59e. c 43.OC 247.0 64 .00 4180. 3C3.C 87.CC 216. C 116C. 15C.C 640.0 2CC0 256.0 839.0 • ' 36.CC 315.0 79.00 4380. 361.C 155.0 2C6.C 320.0 276.C 173.C 2C.C0 872.0 3236. . 163.C 1278. 75.00 • 5070. 1521. J65.0, 1156. 1000. 178.0 18.CO 25. CO 342.0 1122. 57.OC 359.0 119.0 6900. 449.0 63.CO 386.C 360.0 27.OC - 30.OC 4C.00 651 .C 293 .0 4. CCC 86.00 151.0 7B9C. 123.0 U.CO 112.0 590.0 7. CCC 9.00C 3C.CC 171.0 1434 . 56.OC 429.0 132.0 6570. • 559.C 1C0.0 459.C 180.0 267.C 6.CCC 25.00 114.C . • 1973. 27.OC 608 .0 131.0 78CC. 789.C . 11C.0 678.0 120 .0 2C.CC 14.00 25.CO 257.0 794.0 14CC 261 .0 89.00 5CC0. 334.0 1C7.0 227.C 270.0 J o 10,6 O O © O O © cc m CO o • o o © • © vT O in © • o 43 O • © o o in m x o o • —« in — o in ji rg ra © -T in c-rg m gj rg rg • in © o m m • m • O NT -r rg • m in o r*i «n © © © • o gr * <r o gr c gj in co • r-in -« m rg • tn O gr m rg • in m co a? m eg m «JU gj- rg -gr gr rg • CD CM <u rg / / — cc 243.C 30.00 27.CC 642.0 57.CC 190.0 103.0 5365. 237.C 95.00 142,0 270.0... 49.co 15.OC 35.00 135.0 934.0 98.CC 298.0 123.0 5790. 346.C ill.O 235 .0 150.0 ( • 52.CC 5.CCC 40.00 95.CO 869.0 68.OC 222.0 16C.0 7570. 213.C 1C6.0 207 .0 100.0 55.OC 5.CCC 45 .00 95 . CO 1348. 80.OC 337.0 171.C 5660. 472 .0 165.0 307.0 \ 100.0 6.CCC . 5C.CC 60.00 50.CO 750.0 168. C 47.CC 144.C seoo . 27a.0 106.0 172.0 100.0 41 OBSERVATIONS 40 DEGREES CF FREEDOM • NAME '. MEAN S.D. CCRRELATICN COEFFICIENTS SHOCOW OISTAN PCPLTN HSHLPS ALTOAV MED INC LABFCR Pl.ULAP. WHILAB SHODtlW CISTAN POPL TN HSHLOS AUTCAV n i N C 148.9 31 .10 1748. 548.4 100.3 r ? ? 9 . 1-88.3 13.53 140C. 419.8 41 .16 1 387. l.CCOC ' - C . 2783 0.3035 0.464C - 0 . 1 2 7 4 0.0966 l.CCCC 0.4553 C.264 1 0.717 ' , 0 .443/ 1 .0000 0.94C9 C.4CC3 0 .2 741 1 .0000 0. 2554 . 0.2743 l.OOOC 0.71(96 l.OOCC L A l> F C R OLLLAE WhlLAD EVFl.CY. RLLE fP ., WH IFMP 695.2 242.3 453.C 54 4 .1 199.4 34P.5 5?6.7 217.1 346. 5 391.3 196.5 291. P 0.35E2 0.2C74 0.4759 • - 0 - 0 2 0 3 - 0 .0549 C.C26C C.3645 C.4907 0.2464 C. 188C 0.0209 C.1833 c . s e ? 6 C.93C4 0.9110 0.4 74S 0.1071 0.4636 0. c ' 825 C.82C9 0.9795 0 . 4 " ? 5 0.C754 0 . M 3 7 0.3303 C.2937 0.3181 - O . C C 7 7 - C . 2 6 C 5 -0.01 17 0.2/21 O . C b l l D.363C 0.0654 C.3289 0 . 10 56 1.0000 0.8946 0.959P 0 . 4 8 M C.C863 0.5064 1 .0000 0.7333 0 .4 756 0.1812 0.4275 l .CCCC 0.444 1 0.0178 • 0.5C?1 RFTEVF 68.46 62.12 - 0 . 0 2 0 6 C.1C35 - 0 . 0572 -C .C8P3 0.C134 0.0126 -O.OB 12 -C .('41? - 0 . 0 9 7 8 NAMF VF AK s . n . CCRRELATICN COEFFICIENTS ._ FMFLCY BLLFMP WHIEMP PFTFPP 544.1 199.4 348.5 68.46 391 .3 196.5 . 291.8 62.12 EMPLOY 1 .0000 0 . :097 0 .8 *96 - 0 .1216 BLLEMP 1.0000 C.1490 - C . 2 2 C I WHIEMP l.OCCC - C . C 4 U RETEMF 1.0000 CONTROL CARD NO. 2 * INVR * • \ VARIABLE EXCLUDED.WHILAB CORRESPONCING DIAGONAL ELEMENT L .T . .0001 r.nNTRfll CARD NO. 3 * STPRFf! * O PERCENTAGE LEVEL ACCFPT REJECT 5 5 WARN IMC. - VAR IAB IF WHILAB u ••: >:  THE AECVE VARIABLE IS A LINEAR COMCINATION OF VARIABLES INCLUDED IN THIS REGRESSION CEPENCENT VARIABLE IS SHODCW o STEP SC. 1 . , , RSQ » ' C.592C FFPCe. s 0.C019 STD FKR V 141.2866 VAR COEFF STO ERR F-RATIO FPRCB. CCNST. A3.802 I 119.6833 (11 STAN - 2.849 1 3.1246 .0.8314 0.3727 POPLTN -0 .1079 C.1475 1.6222 0.2105 HSHLDS 0.9672 0.5167 3.5C34 0.C682 AUTOAV -C.6P12 1.4980 0.2C68 0.6564 fEC INC C.C3'.2 0.0345 0.9795 C. 3324 LAUFCR -C.2C96 0.6462 0. 1052 C.7433 GLULAB C .4P66 C.4279 1.2532 0.2641 fr-FLCY 0.95500-02 0.1982 0.23210-02 C.5148 BLLEKP -C.0143 C.1935 0.54730-02 0.8994 WHIEMP • -0.2746 C.2362 1.3515 0.2534 • RE TEfP 0.0338 0.3B97 0.7515D-02 C.8919 • STEP NO. 2 RSC 0.5919 FP.ROO. C.CC09 STC ERR Y * 138.9174 • VAR CCEFF STO ERR F-RAT 10 FPHOC. CCNST. 44.7244 116. 1612 CISTAN -2 .0480 3.0721 C.P594 C.3644 PCPL TN -C.1864 0.1415 1.7334 C.1952 HSFLCS C.9639 C.5C36 3.6638 O.Cf 22 A L T C A V -0.6875 : 1.4673 0.2195 C.6471 NEC INC C.0341. C.C339 1 .0109 0.3243 I A P F C R -C .2C94 C.6353 0. 1CP6 C.7359 ttllLAB C.4B36 0.4161 1 .3503 0.2533 BLUEMP -C .75C4D-02 C.1299 0.33370-C2 0.9090 WMEPP - 0 .2643 0.0972 7.3590 C.C1C4 RETEMP C.C344 0.3829 . 0.8071C-02 0.8900 STEP NO. 3 -• • R50 M C.5919 \ • FPROB. C.0C04 STC ERR Y 136.6660" VAR CCEFF STO ERR F-RATIC FPRCP. CCNST. 4 1.7477 102.4157 01 STAN -2. 8827 2.9638 0.0460 C.34C4 PO"LTN -C.1F73 ... C.13P4 1.8315 0.1827 FSFLCS C .9629 0.4951 3.7'e?"i . C.C5P1 A I. T r A V -C.671 4 1 .4 174- 0 .2244 0.6435 : J e> "bo feeINC BLULAB WF IEMP RE TEMP C.0342 -C.20h4 C.4834 -0.2646 C.C396 C.C332 0.6230 C.1C13 0.0955 0.3664 1.0619 0.1098 . 1.3945 7.6792 0.0117 C.3119 0 . 7 3 S 6 0.2453 C.CC91 0.8793 ' STEP NO. 4 ' , V ! RSO . C.5917 . • " '. ' FPROC. - a C .0C01 < T C F R R V n 134 .5389 ! VAR CCEFF STO E R R F-RATIC FPRCP. CCNST. 42.1262 10C.C351 • ' . ' CISTAN -2.8284 2.8753 0..9676 C.3346 POPL 7N -C.191C . C.1318 2.0993 0.1535 r-SFtPS 0.9M 1 0.4871 3.8525 0.0545 AL.TCAV -C.6746 1.3951 0.2338 C.6368 f t r i N C C . C 3 4 3 C.C327 1.1C24 * C.302 3 LABFCR -0.1976 C.6080 ' 0.1C56 C.742R RLLLAB C.4879 C.4CC8 • 1.4822 0.2305 H F I £ M p -0.2652 0.C938 7.9575 0.0078 STEP NC. 5 • RSQ C.5904 F FRC8. * 0.0001 -S T O FRR Y 132.7C32 V A R COEFF STO ERR F-RATIO FPROB. . CCNST. 42.5923 98.6608 . OISTAN -2 .7222 2.6178 0.9334 0.3433 • PCFLTN -0.2177 0.1C19 4,564 1 C.C381 HShLOs' C.822? 0.2309 12.6840 0.0012 AUTOAV -C . 7432 1.36C2 C.2585 • C.5949 fECINC ' . 0.0346 0.0322 1. 1499 C.2517 BLLLAU C.44C1 C.3677 1.4328 0.2 383 WFIEMP -C.2659 • C.CS25 8.2671 C.CC69 1TFP KO. 1 RSC " m C .5667 • FFPCB. n C.CCOC STC E R R Y w 131.3271 V A P COEFF STO ERR F-RATIO FPROB. CONST. 56.2354 94.4585 CISTAN . -3.4252 2.46C7 1.9C65 0.17 30 V PCPLTN -0 .2414 0.0912 7.0C57 C.C11R t-SFLOS C.8739 ' 0.2C84 17.5837 0.0002 M F C I N C 0.C217 C.C217 C.955? 0.3271 BLLLAB 0.4789 0.3570 1 .8002 C.1855 fcHIFMP -C.2515 C.C877 8.2199 0.0069 ' • STEP NC. 7 I—1 o .•: .. ' • . . . . 110 s • -. - i • • r=- -3 —« r- • r- rsj —. •J- • © —« e; U vT cc a o c r- =c © C J (Ni — o u*> O O cu ^ O u o © © o ce ro © O p-i o CC (Ni © O © © o . Q . • • • • • c • • • • a. « • • U - o © © © © u. © © © © u. © © o o O o —• rvj o a © (Ni m \t P C U sT o vt a. — © c rt rv v it- »-* (NJ V • <£ O — cr cc ^ •c rs, © < r~ (Ni ro ac * • • • • cc - • • • cc • • • H C O U (D 1 — r- cr CC I c u. u. U- ro CC lf> •o co cr J"v a •-! j \ c> r- (NI cc cr rv uo © OC r- - £ sf N cc © »n r- >U cr a s- •vf IT. UJ cr cr T . o cr — Wf l m m UJ CD UJ o <r m co ro © O (NI CNJ O CM O © —• O CM © o • • • • t • o • • • • • o • • • • K - rn (NI CJ O C J o m rsj o © o -o o o © . V> o - - -IS! O is. ro *J o u. r- —< -c n LO -p- o rv U. m CC ~* «N! CO r- o »n ' u_ r- cc *r . <r o cr a r- cr c cr co r- m o cr U_ vC O sC -C ro c-o m . LL CJ <> cr o r- e — u- o cr — cr r- u> o o — u; c. sr lA <• o o UJ r- cr (NI "C IO o c —• ( J fM te rg N (_j cr (Ni a.' (NI C_J © — ir rsj • • • C J • • • . • • • • • • o • • • • • • • • © • • • • o o — OJ U C J C J c © C J UJ ( \ ( J U o O © m o © <-> ro CM i l l rv | | 1 1 1 •"* H • ' K n a H tt tl N >- >- > •M CC cr CC • CC • z z: Vi CD CL • cc • Z Z W a. • cc • VI Cw 1— < i- Q «i a. CO UJ <l ^ C J a. CO ui v— \— © V) H J J J U J c V. >- _ J _ J UJ o VO - J - J u-O a. o ex. <c Vi X 3 — CO CJ> LJ tt z i/) a i cr • CJ cc © a z a x —« <•) a. - L J i VI CL. <i © © Vl X VI a »- <i a © V) X 1 a u . > C J o c x cu jr Il U. 1/1 > (J u o. x JC ti U- V) > © a X X • • O a Z z CL. a. r-VI v> J no. OBSERVED CALCULATED RCSICUAL NO. ' 'OBStRVEC CALCULATED RESIDUAL 1. 26.CCO 70.474 -44.474 2. ' 791.CO 540.OP 25C.92 V 1 - 223 .00 • 463.01 -240.CI r 151.CC 0.26359 150.74 \ .5. 28.C0C 9C.4C9 -62.4C9 6. 69-000 24.499 43.5C1 7. • O.C . 5E.755 -59.755 * ' R. 424.00 .320 .C? 1C3.97 9- 57.CCC -7 6.4-30 1 33.43 10. 15C.CC 134.53 15.471 11 . 2 76 .00 39R.76 - 122.76 12. 178.CO 97.460 80.5 32 13. 27.CCO -74.C37 101.C4 14. 7.0000 145.32 -13P.e2 15. 297.CC ??t.24 65.754 16. 20.000 92. E97 -72.H97 17. 53 .eco 151.60 -9-P.597 19*. 2C7.CC 131.13 75.075 19. 155.CC 15F..ae,.... -T.R825 20. R5.CCC " 70.463 14.537 21 . 21t.CC 173.23 42.770 22. 1 92.00 9?.472 09.528 23. 677.00 243.79 433.21 • 24. 56C.CC 7C2.43 257.57 25. 224 .00 223 .Rl 0. 19361 26. 4?e.C0 500.Rl -80.814 27. . 2io.no 2CP.S4 1.C623 20. 75 .000 53.7C9 '21.291 29. 5C.CCO 23C.45 -180.45 30. 0 .0 126.72 -128.72 31. 0.0 67.142 -67.142 • 32. 6.0CC0 • 58.7R9 -52.7H9 33 . 0 .0 6 1 . C c. 4 -61.0*4 34. : 12.CCO 134 .73 -122.73 35. ' 37.CCC IC2.67 -65.673 36. 54.000 , , 109.67 -55. 672 37. O.C 116.63 -116.63. 30 . 49.COO 1 3 1. 5 f -82. 579 39 . 5? .000 R4.09R -32.090 : 40. 55.CCC 96.95? -41.958 .4 1 . 6.0X00 -43.524 49.524 * ENC CF CCM"OL SET »' <:THP" n  EXECLTICN TERMINATEC SS IG COMPUTER PRINTOUT #3 BUS PASSENGER WORK TRIPS TO"THE CORE—-VANCOUVER ZONES r" '•" • CCNTROL CARC NO. 1 • IN^ SPC * CATA FCRMAT \ I13F5.0) f INPUT CAT A •— ' s BLLFMP CIST AN Vi M 1 E M P PCPLTN RETFMP HSI-LCS AUTOAV MEOINC LABFOR BLULAB ' WHI LAB EMPLOY CC cc 10.00 1C.CC 0.0 5.CCC CO 0.0 CO O.C CC 0.0 10.CO 995.C 74.CC 10.00 296.0 1500. 36.CC. 902.0 62.CC 547C. eicc 138.0 673.0 . 370.0 58C.C 38.CC 10.00 342.0 1519. 16.CC 836.C 54.CC 49CC. £97.C 161.0 735.0 380 .0 143.C 735.C 15.00 235.C 954.0 65.OC 189.C .' 42 .CC 3C35. 210.C 13P.0 180.0 970.0 27.OC 377.C 15.-00 133.0 313.0 10.00 122.C M.CC • 3645. 122. C 62.CO 71.00 490.0 125.C 297.C 15.00 313.0 230.0 35.00 84.CC 48.CC 427C. 97.OC 46.C0 52 .00 610.0 O.C 495.C 15.00 55.CC 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.CC 368C. CC 0.0 0.0 550.C 620.0 292.C 2C.00 560. C 1294. 94.00 698.0 55.CC 462C. 722.C 127.0 596.0 860.0 76.00 155.C .2C.00 1CC5. 598.C 43 .00 .247.C (4.CC 4iec " 303.0 07.00 216.0 1160. r 272.0 64C.C 20.00 256.0 e39.C * 36.OC 215.C 78.CC 43ec 361.C •'; 15 5.0 2C6 .C - 220.C 1558. 173.C 20.00 872.C 3236. • 163.0 127e. 75.CC S07C. 1521. 365.0 1156. 1CCC. 410.0 18.CC 25.00 342.0 1122. 57.OC 359.C 115.C 65CC. 449.0 63.00 386 .0 340.C 18 .00 3C.CC 40.00 651.0 293.C 4.000 86.CC 151.C 7890. 123.C 1L.00 112.C 590.C 32.00 5.CCC 30.00 171.0 14 3 4. 56 .00 429.C 132.C 6970. 559.C 100.0 459.0 1P0.C 749.0 6.C0C 25.00 1 14.0 1973. 27.00 6C8.C 131.C 700C. 789.C 110.0 678 .0 170.C 50.OC 14.CC L 25.00 257.0 794.C . 148.0 261.C 69.rc 5000. 334.0 107.0 227.0 270.0 338.0 44.CC 25.00 256.C 1628. 67.00 500.C 67.CC 4R2C. 651.0 267.0 384.0. 320.0... \ 540.C ' 27.CC 20.00 243.0 1427. 164 .0 434.C 66.CC 4P7C. 575.0 '259.0 316.C 27C.C j ^ • 345 48. .0CC 25.00 192.0 1297. 161 .0 42C.C te.cc 487C. ' 532.C 245 .0 287 .0 24C.C 403.0 2e5.C 25.00 365.0 89C.C 29.CO 292. C 58.CC 416C. 347.0 167.0 181. 0 770.C 003 66. .0 CC 2 5.00 264. C 1886. 303.0 560.C 66.CC 4e2C. 735.C 338.0 397.C 220 .C 361.0 24 5. C 30.00 265.0 133C. 129.0 • 4C4.C . 68.CC 465C. 519.0 244.0 .. 27 5 .C 610.C 1311. 54.OC 35.00 297.0 2220. 5.000 968.C IC1.C 5CCC. 1295. 5H3.0 712.C 2J0.C 1023. 396.C 40.00 243.0 2860. 09.00 112C. • ne.c 5250. 1467. 572.0 895.0 640.C 675.0 576.C 35.00 565.0 2554. H.000 1C71. 1C9.C 5210. 1457. 583.0 874.0 114C. 998.0 245.C 35.00 465.0 4C96. 29.00 1464. 149.C 7040. 1639. 266.0 1376. 710.C 26 25 OeSERVATIONS OEGREES fF FPEEDCM • NAME MEAN S.C. C CR RE LATICN COEFFICIENTS • VCROCW C I STAN PCPLTN 479. 2 22.es 1515. 433.7 8.667 1182. WORCOW '1.0000 C.?(31 0.R2H? OISTAN l.CCCO C.5666 PCPLTN l.CCCC HSHLOS ALTCAV MECINC LABFCR PLULAB W F IL A3 • HSHLOS AUTCAV MECINC LAHFOR PU.'LAB VHI1.AU 526. 1 82.31 49 01 . 639.7 199.0 44C.2 405. e 36.26 1638 . 4e4.6 . 170.7 359.0 C.0.S0 3 C.2656 0 .3044 C.P75C C.7 19 6 C.8450 0.36 )? C.622C C.5587 C.4616 C.567C 0 . 3539 C."417 C.5341 C.4 197 0.9820 C.P5P6 0.91H2 1 .0000 C.4259 0.4169 C.9035 0.7310 C.9eC6 1 .0000 C.9Ct6 0.4716 C.3147 C.4E74 l.CCCC C.4 12C 0.1201 C.4957 • l.CCCC 0.8 102 C.9617 1 .COOO 0.6293 l.CCOO EMPLOY PILFMF WHIEMP RETEMP 52 2.e 21C.0 242. 1 6e.42 311.6 21B.9 231.4 71.66 0.1625 -0.1092 0.2743 C.2386 C.1037 -C.C861 0. 1999 C.1245 0.2434 C.C26P 0.7373 C.1445 0 .2563 -C.C4C2 0.3255 C.1200 -0.0210 -0.0177 rC.22C3 • -C.293V \l.l927 0. 2432 0.0095 O.C120 0.27C8 -0 .0090 C.3 1C1 0.1385 C.2438 C.1315 • C.1656 C.2513 C.25C4 -0.0742 . 0.3403 0.C673 NAME MEAN S.C. CORPELATICN COEFFICIENTS . F-FIfY 523. 311.6 FMPLCY l.CCCC ELLEMF V»F j F M P PET EPF • BLL'EMP ; ic.c 218. 9 C.5757 l.OOCO Wt- IFMP 342.1 231.4 C.7525 C.C135 l.CCCC V " '' ' • " RETEMP 68.42 71.68 -0.085*; -C.2362 . C.C558 l.COCO S CCNTRCL CARO NC. 2 * INVR * t VARIABLE EXCLUDE0 WH1LA e CCRRESPCNC INC CI AGONAL ELEMENT L .T . .0CC1 CONTROL. CARO NO. 3 * STPREG * PERCENTAGE LEVEL -ACCFPT REJECT : WARNING- VARIABLE WHILAB THE ABCVE VARIABLE IS A LINEAR CCMBINATICN OF VARIABLES INCLUDED IN THIS REGRESS ICN CEPENCfNT VARIABLE STEP NC. 1 IS fcCPOCV • RSO * pppoe. STO ERR Y « VAP CfNST. • C.e63S C.C003 • 213.7576 CCEFF 44.C152 STO FRR 237 . i eC3 F-PAT1C FPRCe. DI STAN PCPL TN (-SFLCS . A L T 0 A V MECINC lAPFfR -S.622C C.464S 0.H576 : -6.9668 C.13C3 -1.1617 15.8933 C.4448 1.09P0 6.P705 C.1C4C 1.64C5 0.3(65 1.0925 C . 6 1C 1 1 .0283 I.5(84 C .5C 14 C.56 c e C.3148 C.4531 0.3215 C.2294 C.4966 PLLLAB ECFLCY PLLEMP Wt-IEMP PETEMP . C.9C04 -C.4817 C.C634 C.6504 i 0.1941 C.91 16 C.494C 0.4246 , • C.5766 0 .6822 0.9756 C.9;C7 0.0223 1.2726 0.CEC9 0.3422 C.34E4 C.8553 . C.27H7 C.771C STEP NO. 2 " . • -FSC '-• FPPOB. « ST F FRR Y « 0 .8637 C.C001 2C6 .6737 VAP CONST. CISTAN PCFLTN t-^ t-LOS CCEFF 53.6879 -IC.5704 0.4605 * C.F55P STD ERR 22C.2176 !4.7eiC 0. 4291 1. C324 F-RATIO C.4F2P 1.1518 0.7528 FPRCB. . C.5C41 C.3CC8 C.4C34 • AUTCAV MECINC LARFCR ELLLAB FMFLCY l Wt- 1 FMP -6.5992 C.126C . -1.15R7 0 .9430 -C.42C5 C .593C 6.2011 0 .0967 1.56 79 C.837C 0,2667 C.4 149 1.132 5 1.659 1 C.5f45 1-2695 7 .4R66 2.C29 C.3C49 C.2ICC C.4621 C. 2775" C.1324 r.1705 •  1 'J RETECP C.1846 0.6567 0.0790 C.7729 STEP NC. 3 PSC a C.863C / F PRO G. C .CCCC l STC ERR Y m 200.6374 VAR CCFFF STO FRR f-RATIC FPRCB. CCNST. 61 . cue 212.3636 CISTAN -10.0934 14.3362 0.4957 C.4578 ; POPLTN C. 4P.3C C.4C53 1.3"24 C.2 54 4 FSFLCS C .P.982 1.CC22 C.8C32 C.3e 7C A L T C A V -7.C53S 5.8117 1.4731 C.241? VF.OINC C.133C C.C5C6 2.1543 C.1584 • -LAPFCR -1 .2582 1.5082 6.6555 C.42U OLLlAB C.5833 C.H0C6 1 .5C«4 0.2 357 I.-EMPLOY -C .4467 C.2427 3.3675 0.C813 hFIFfP 0 .6280 0.3e4l 2.6727 C.11P2 STEP NO. 4 • RSC «. 0.8588 • . . . . FPROB. C.CCCC STC ERR Y 197 .6385 VAR CCEFF STO ERR f-RATIC FPROB. CCNST. -17.1275 178.3435 PC FLTN 0 .3978 C.38.52 1.C667 C.2174 HSHLDS C.8C89 0.9793 0.6823 0.4251 ALTOAV -5 .3262 , 4.76C8 3.6376 C.0640 fECINC 0.1444 0.C878 2.7C2C C.1152 LABFCR -C.5C1S 1.3955 0.4152 0.5345 ELUlAfl C .6717 C.6572 1 .C44 7 0.3725 EfFLCY -0.43S7 0.2388 3 .3882. C.CPC1 HhIEMP . C.5537 | C.3630 2.3158 0.1431 STEP NC. 5 'l PSC C .6552 FFRCE. * C.OOOO STO ERR Y 154.4021 VAR COEFF STD ERR F-RATIC FPRCe. CCNST. -9.7396 175.C598 POPLTN C.215C C.2563 0.7C38 0.4172 FSFLCS C .?96C C.5612 0.2782 C.6C58 ALTfAV -6.674C 4.5758 3.5535 C . C 7 1 3 \ fED INC C.1348 C.C851 2.5050 0.1274 8LULAB C.5298 - 0.6091 C.7568 C.2SS9 E^FLCY -C.4127 0.2313 3.1830 C.C880 HF I EMP C .4685 C.2326 1.574e C.1740 STEP NC. 6 's. RSO a • ' ' J FFPCB. m CCOOC \ STC FRR Y » ISC.(735 VAR CCEFF STO FRR F-RATIO FPROB. • CONST. -7.('.52 171.6584 V PCPI TN C.3432 c.cec2 18.3C67 C.C0C5 ALTCAV -10.530', 2.86H2 13.4795 C.CC17. MFC INC C. 1626 C.C655 6.1591 0.0216 ELULAQ C .3764 C.5248 C.5142 c.4eP3 EMFLCY -C.4677 0.2025 5.3J33 C.C3C8 WHIEMP C .5654 C.2737 4.2(81 C.C504 STEP NC. 7 RSC ' m C.C411 FFPCe. m c.oooo STO FRR Y ' iee.3445 VAR COCFF STO ERR F-RAT IC FPRCC. CCNST. 51 .0933 149.0233 POPLTN C.3927 C.C4C4 ' 94.4235 0.0000 AUTCAV -9.94C5 2.7141 13.4138 C.C016 F^DI^ c C.14C6 0.0572 6.0*25 C.C2J7 EMPLOY -C.466C C.2C0O 5.4281 C.C290 WHIEMP 0.5697 ' C.27C2 4.4435 C.C457 NC. CESEPVEC CtlCUlATEC PESICLIAL NO. OBSERVED CALCULATED VRESICUAL 1. 0.0 52.12C -52.12C • 2. "395.00 789.29 .205.71 \ 3. 5EC.CC E17.66 -237.66 ? . . 143 .CC 1 16.85 26.1C7 — _ f 5. ' 27.CCC 7.2172 19.783 6. 125.CC 15e.85 -33.853 7. 0.0 -123.51 123. 51 e. 62C.CC 585.05 34.946 9. 76.CCC • ?<5.56 -153.56 10. 272.00 217.9 1 54.C52 11. 1556.C 1320.0 237.93 12. 4ie .cc 3C6.25 111.75 --" 13. 18.000 -i?9.?a 14 7.28 14. 32.CCC ,255.84 -263.84 15. 748 .CC 6 25.65 118.35 lis. 50.OCO 2C1 .96 -151.96 17. 3 3 f. C C 5CC.14 -162.14 v. 18. ' 54C.CC 458.CC H.955 19. 345.CC 666 .29 -321.29 • 20. 4C3.CC 265.55 133.41 ' 21 . 803 .CO 6 11.28 151.72 22. • 361.CC 3C4.36 56.64J -23. 1311.C 1C6C.C 25C.56 24 . 1023 .0 972.35 5C.647 25. 675.CC 8f6.47 -211.47 26. 998.00 1215.C -216.98 -• ENC CE CONTROL SET * STOP C EXECLTICN TERf INAT EC SSIG " I . . * \ * o V - / COMPUTER PRINTOUT #4 BUS PASSENGER. SHOPPING'.. TRIPS TO THE CORE—VANCOUVER ZONES r~ ; • : '• • • : : • \ CCNTRCL CARC NC. 1 * INMSOC » CATA FCPMAT j ' • (ITPS.0 I / — IN FUT CAT A SHCCCV. BLLFMP CISTAN WHIEMP PCPLTN ' RETEMP FSFLCS AUTOAV MED INC LABFOR . BLLLAB WHILA6 EMPLOY 26.CC CC 10.00 1C.CC 0.0 5.CCC O.C 0.0 CO O.C CC 0.0 10.00 751.C . 74.CC 10.00 256.0 1500. 36.CC . 902.0 . 62.CC 547C E1C.C 138.0 673.0 . 370.0 223.C 36 .CC . 10.00 342.0 1519. 16.CC 836 .C • 54.CC 49CC. e97.c 161.0 735.0 .380.0 • 151.C 735.C 15.00 235.0 554.0 6 5.0C 189.0 .* <2.CC 3C35. 318. C 138.0 180.0 970.C 28.CC 3 7 7 .C 1 5.00 1 33.0 313.0 10.00 122.C 53.CC 3645. 132.C 62-.C0 71 .00 -490.0 6 8. CO 257.C 15.00 313.0 230.0 35.00 84.OC 48.CC 427C. 57.CC 46.CO 52.00 6 10.0 0 .0 455. C 15.00 55. CC 0.0 0.0 CC *7.CC 3f ec. O.C 0.0 0.0 550 .C 424.0 252.C 20.00 568. C 1294. 94.00 698.C 55.CC 462C. 722. C 127.0 596.0 860 .0 57.OC 155.C , 2 C C 0 1C05. 598.0 43.00 . 247.C <4.CC 418C. 3C3.C 87.00 216.C 1 160. 15C0 64C.C 20.00 256. C 839.C * 36.0 0 315.C 78. CC 43ec 361.0 155.0 206.0 32C.C 276.0 173.C 20.00 872.0 3236 .. 163.0 1278. 75.CC 5C7C. 1521. 365.0. 1156. 1C0C. 178.0 18.CC 25.00 342.0 1122. 57.00 359 .C 115.C 65CC. 449.0 63.00 .386 .0 360.C 27.00 3C.CC 40.00 651.0 293. C 4.000 86.CC 151.C 7e50. 123.0 11.00 112.C 590. C 7.000 5.CCC 30.00 171.0 1434. 56.00 429.C 132. C 6970. 559.C 100.0 459.C 180.C 287.0 6.C0C 25.00 114.0 197 3 . 27.00 6C8.C 131.C 780C. 789. C 1 10.0 67H.0 120.C Si ' 20 .00 14.CC 25.00 257.0 794.C 148.0 261.C es.ec . 5000. 334.0 107.0 227 .0 270.C £1U 53.00 64.CC 25.00 256.C 1628. 67.00 . 500.C 87.CC 482C. 651.0 267.0 384.C . 320.0, \ 207. C ' 27.OC 30.CO 243.C 1427. 164.0 434.C C6.CC 487C. 575.0 259.0 316.0 270.C o ( • 155.0 . . 4e.cc 25.00 152.0 1257 . 161 .0 420.C fe.cc 467C. 532.C 245.0 207.C 240. C 85.00 2e5.0 25.00 3e5.C 89C.C 29.00 253.C 58.CC 416C. 347.0 167.0 18 1 .0 770.C ' 216.0 66.CC 25.00 264.C 1886 . 303.0 5ec.c 66.CC 402C. 735.C 338 .0 397.C 320.0 182.0 245.C-3C.00 365.0 133C. 129.0 , 4C4.C 68.CC 465C. 515.0 244.0 275.0 610.C 677 .0 54.CC 35.00 297.0 232C. . 5.00C 568.C 1C1.C 5CCC. 1295. 503.0 712.0 250. C 560.C 356.C 40.00 243.0 286C. 89.00 113C. ' 118.0 525C. 1467. 572.0 R95.C 64C.C 224.0 576.C 35.00 565.0 2554. 8.000 1C71. 1C5.C . 5210. 1457. 5P3.0 874.0 114C. 428.0 245.C '. 35.00 465.0 4096. 29.00 1464. 145.C 7040. 1639. 266.0 1376. 710.C -26 OBSERVAT IONS 25 OECREES CF FPEEOCM NAPE MEAN S.C. C CP RE LAT I CN COEFFICIENTS SHCOCW 211.5 CISTAN 22.85 PCFLTN 1515. 209.7 8.667 1187. SKI COW 1 .0000 C.1661 0.65C4 DI STAN l.CCCC 0.5665 ' PCPLTN l.CCCC HSHLCS ALTCAV MfcC INC LABFCP PLULAB Wt- IL AO H S H L D S 526.1 AUTCAV e 2 .31 ^ECINC 4981. LAGFCR 625.7 B L L L A B 199.8 V H H A H 440.2 4C5.8 36.36 1638 . 484.6 170.7 359.C 0.7.34 4 C.1152 0.7447 C . E 5 £ 0.5 556 0.6423 0.3632 C.822C C.5587 C.4616 C.567C 0.3539 0.9417 C.534 1 C.4157 C.9870 C.85F6 0.9 IP? 1.0000 0.4259 C.4 185 0.9825 0.7319 C.SfC6 1 .0000 C.9C68 0.47 16 0.314 7 C.4f74 1.CCCC C.412C 0.1201 C.4957 . .l.CCCC 0.8 182 C.96 17 1 .0000 C.6293 l.OCOC E M P L O Y 523.8 PLl.E"P 210.0 WHICP 342.1 RETEMP' 68.42 311.e 21S.9 231.4 71.6e 0.0525 -0 .0552 0.0798 0.CC57 0.10 37 -C.C861 0.19-J9 C.1245 0.24 34 C.C266 0 .2373 C.1445 0.256 ) -C.C4C2 C.3755 0.1200 -0.0718 -0.0177 TC.2203 • -C.293V V).1C27 C. 2432 0.0095 0.0120 0.27C8 -0 .0090 C.31C1 0.1285 C.243H C.1315 C.1656 C.2513 0.25C4 -0.0743 0.34C3 O.C673 NAME MEAN S.C. CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FM F1OY 5?3.8 311.8 EMFLCY I . O C C C ELLEMF WHEMP PETFMF • J V D ' ELLEMP 21C.C 218.5 VHEKP 342.1 231.4 PETEPP 68.42 71.68 0.5757 1.0000 C.7525 C.C125 -0.0e59 -C.2262 l.CCCC C.C558 l.COOO CCNTRCL CARD NC. 2 * INVR • . J ' VARIABLE EXCLUDEC WHILAK CCPRESFCNC INC CI AGONAL ELEMENT L .T . .OOC1 \ CONTROL CARD NO. 3 PERCENTAGE LEVCL ACXFPT RF.IFCT « STPREG « • ' ! 5 5 WARNING - VARIABLE t>HI LAB TFE AeCVE VARIABLE IS A LINEAR CCMBINATICN OF VARIABLES INCLUDEO IN THIS REGRESSION CEPENCENT VARIABLE IS SHCDCI. STEP NC. 1 * RSQ " C. 7 5 3 6 F PRO P. « C .COS • STD ERR Y ' 139.1250 • VAR CCFFF CCNST. 37.4PC6 STO ERR 154.J657 F-MTIC FFPCP. -DI STAN -4.4225 PCPLTN C.2759 FSFLCS 2.1696. A L TOA V -1.4834 PECINC C.C505 1APFCP -2.4942 10.3442 C.2895 0. 7146 4.4717 C.C677 1. C678 0.ie28 C.5C03 9.2177 0.1 in 1 0.5556 5.4567 C.6772 C.3594 c.rcf7 . . 0.7403 • C.4 742 C.C224 BLLLAB 1.3181 EfFLCY ' C.C30P PLLEfP -C.1438 WFIfVP -C.C65C PETEPP -0.5751 C.5933 f C.3215 0.2763 ,i - C.3753 C.4440 4.9353 C.52C50-C2 0.2707 0.0338 1.67PC 0.0415 C.PF.7C C.616C C.8343 C.2142 STEP NC. 2 RSC = 0 .7534 . FPROB. » C.CC44 STC FRR Y « 134.A517 VAR CCEFF CCNST. 26.7716 CISTAN -4.2102 PCFLTN 0.2845 • F5FI ns 2. 1577 STO EHR 145.C132 5.7647 0.2659 C 6652 F-RATIO 0.1E5S 1.1446 10.34>M FPROB. . \ C.6745 C.2C24 o.nn>-,7 • • ALT C AV -1.6917 CECINC C.C529. LAEFCR -2.4934 EL LL AB 1 .3076 BLLECP. -C. 1210 L w.-IF"P -0.C36P 3.7669 0. 0606 1. C2 15 C.5 5 19 C.1451 C.16 24 C. 2C72 0.76-<7 5.8 252 5.5717 0.6672 0. C 5 1 4 C.6622 C . 4 C C c C.C777 C.C3C8 0.4217 0.8076 . . 1 J o PETEMP -c.seoi 0.4261 1.8532 C.1910 • . \ STEP NO. 3 >, RSC C.7576 / FPROB. o.ccie • i • 1 STC ERR Y B 130.4049 VAP CCEFF STC ERR F-RATIC FPRCE. CCNST. 42.6685 142.7C74 DI STAN -5.1582 8.5581 0.3633 C.5615 POPLTN C.3195 ' C.2C87 2.3502 0.1415 FSFLCS 2.1838 0.6 352 11.B2C1 C.CC34 ALTCAV -1 .6489 3.6485 0.204 3 C.66C4 • CEC INC C .C536 C.C5E7 C.8343 C.3780 • ' LAPFCR -2.6124 ', 0.8617 9^1512 C. CC78 i BL LL AB 1.3332 0.5151 6 .5561 0.0198 I.-8LUE*P -C.1318 C.1282 C.SC98 C.357C RETEPF -0.5923 C.41C0 2.0874 C. 16 48. STEP NO. 4 RSC m • 0.7494 FPROB. C.CC07 STC ERR Y * 127.3163 VAR CCEFF STC ERR F-RAT IC FPROE. CCNST. 74.5155 12C.JC6S CISTAN -7 .4985 6.6522 1.27C6 C.2751 POPLTN C.1901 2.2634 0.1475 FSFLCS 2.2545 C.6CC8 14.CE44 0.CU6 • FFCINC 0.C310 0.C298 1.C77C C.2151 LARFCR -2.6187 C.8412 9.6919 0.C062 eiuitR 1.4C75 C.4 8C7 8.5732 C.CC51 ELLEPP -C.1243 0.1339 0.8616 . C.2654 PETEMP -C.5563 C.3535 2.01)3 C . 1710 STEP NC. 5 i * PSC M C .7367 FFPce. a 0.0004 STC FRR Y - 126.e26C VAR COEFF STD FRR F-RATIC • FPRCB. CCNST. 15.0102 101.0704 CISTAN -6.45C1 6.5376 0.9855 0.3359 PCPLTN C .2479 C.ie49 1.75 75 0.1541 HSHLDS 2.2437 0.5904 14.C583 C.CC15 \ PECINC C.C332 0.C296 1 .2 549 0.277? LARFCR -2.513C • C.83C2 5. 1626 C.CC71 BlLl AB 1.3474 0.4737 8.0 301 C.C1C7 Pf TFKP -C.4462 C. 3 73 1 1.43U C.2460 STEP NC. 6 RSC •f .7773 o I-". 122 J .) O >C ~ C D CJ* • *t y g* *o , <_> r- <_> — -r\ i o u> o C J rg • • • • • I ( J o o <-» o cn —• r- u~ • y r^ , r- o —< • • • • • in o O N H •x o °-' m o o N o u O rg • • o CJ o C J r- — r- —* cr r-rg o o —* ( M ( J O O • • • • * C_J o o o O VT i r - r - fv | g j GU U • gf <• gr u» r- o gj oc o UJ vC «L o • t- g= * J to o r g r\j <f g j r-r; cj oi (\ rg u- r g —« m r -»P C O / j n • • • • a o «-» u o o rsj r~ u. u r o r - u. —• g: or- L U CC' o r - o ui ( \ i I— r- —' LT o —• o ~< <r rs. —« m m co <LJ m —* gr • • • • • I I r- o cc —' o <? r* u ><-cc gj cr m -g-cc o r— co o tu c ir r- c >r LT \ r— O * • • * o C J O ' u_- ro r~ u~» rg t u. o o g; —• ' U J g V M \ i I Q w IH M m i C J • • f r j C J rg gj m rg t u (j (Nj O J Q J C J U \ —< j\ cu n» • • • • C J C J C J o i C J gj c o m L T L J L U • D U g-cc r-L U a. C cr —« o I • cc* C D U J wo J , a. ir c . <ICJ u1 U L L O > o C O C O c C J j t~ I L U V J L L 3L -J =J Ct CJ CL C J L O a. r-• I T L O OC ( >— C J L J • "-O » J J L L . o. C L i . C J tx C J a. ir! c L O u- v- *i a < a u. w > C J t CT rg r— rg • - • INJ rg o~ C J rg rg C J : co cr co - C J C J «1 J _ J u I - 1 ' C 13 , U J < _j - X - J C J • fsj r- gj a: in gj C J o o — cr o C J o Q . • • • u_ O C J o O J CNJ O w u> m a s ^  -r \* ct LTN •g' o r g U J o cu gj H *r %r m pi o <r rg r- o - J - X IT- C C er- ro r- o C J u _ u^  — gs m gj o C J o gr cc <r cr C J • C J o r- a j —» L J rg 1 * N M >-O C C f LO cc CO CC U J »— C J C J < C J «/J _ J a . C J cc C2 OL *L X C J _l LO u . t— <1 C J LO <i _ J CC I X L O > U 1 _ J ca NC. CBSEPVEC C/lCUlATEC RESICUAL NO. OBSERVED CALCLLATEO. R.ESICL'AL " 1. 26.CCC fl.4554 17.545 2. 751.CO 587.23 203.77 3. 223.CC 36C.84 -137.84 j ? 4. 151.CO 13.64 6 137.25 5. 28.CCC 94.m -66.159 ft. 68.CCC 6 1.597 6.4C25 * 7. 0 .0 8 .4554 -F.4554 : 8. '.24.CC 3 35.31 • 88.(,85 ; 9 . 57.CCC 93.567 - 26. 56? 10. 150.OC 155.45 -45 .447 11. 276.CC 438.C4 -162.04 12. 178.CC 6C.255 117.71 13. 27.CCC -5 .6328 22.6 23 11. 7.CC CC 6C.477 -53 .4 77 15. 2 87.CC 57.342 225.66 16. 2C.CC0 92.137 -72.132 17. 53.CCC 2 IC.24 -157.24 18. ' 207.00 194.44 12.5(2 15. 155.CC 7 15. IC -64 .1 CO 20. 85.CCC 1E7.21 -1C2.21 21 . 216.00 75-3.54 -82.544 22. •182.CC 2C8.17 -26.174 23. 677 .CC 4C9.86 267. 14 24. 56C.CC 44 1 .44 118.56 25.' 224.CC 355,11 -135. 11 26. 428.00 510.49 . -82.45C * ENC CF CONTROL SET • STCP 0 EXECLTICN TERMINATED SSIG ' t • o ' 124 CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS "The purpose of t h i s study was to i d e n t i f y the patterns of connection between the core area of Vancouver (and i t s sub p a r t s ) , and the metropolitan region i n terms of public t r a n s i t t r a v e l for work and shopping t r i p purposes. I t was also hoped to model functional relationships associated with core destined work and shopping t r i p s by t r a n s i t i n the Greater Vancouver area. The analyses were placed i n the context of l i t e r a t u r e concerned with intra-urban t r a v e l patterns as a problem i n understanding and modelling s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n and l i t e r a t u r e on urban form and the r o l e of the core i n the contemporary c i t y . * From e a r l i e r geographic case studies of t r a v e l by automobile and a l l modes to the core of Vancouver, distance and alternate t r i p end opportunities were documented as major forces i n structuring t r i p s to the core, at. a scale of i n v e s t i g a t i o n that included the whole metropolitan region. As a r e s u l t of these studies, a "core r i n g " model was advanced to describe Greater Vancouver's urban s p a t i a l pattern by W. Hardwick. Beyond a c e r t a i n distance, t r i p s for work and shopping were said to be more oriented among peripheral a c t i v i t y concentrations and less oriented to the core. Within the inner r i n g , t r i p s destined to the core were found to vary 125 with socio-economically d i f f e r e n t i a t e d r e s i d e n t i a l sectors ' rather than distance, and the core (as a whole) was found to be oriented towards higher income western portions of the inner r i n g . Further study of shopping t r i p s by Hardwick and Leigh indicated that sub-areas within the core also demonstrated socio-economic s e c t o r a l v a r i a t i o n , and a d i r e c t i o n a l o r i e n t a t i o n , with western core areas oriented west (to high income areas) and eastern core zones oriented east (to low income.areas). It i s within t h i s context that expected t r a n s i t t r a v e l patterns were f i r s t examined. 1) Summary of Findings of Descriptive Analyses The t r a v e l patterns to the downtown core described above were seen as the context within which bus passenger t r i p patterns to the core were analyzed. Conclusions on the relevance of the "core r i n g " model, and on the s e l e c t i v e o r i e n t a t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l downtown core zones are summarized here. a) The core ring model defines the Greater Vancouver area as two concentric rings. The inner r i n g i s focussed on the downtown core, and t r i p s within t h i s r i n g to downtown are structured by socio-economic v a r i a t i o n i n r e s i d e n t i a l areas. The cartographic analysis of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of t r a n s i t t r i p s per capita indicated that the core r i n g model i s tenable for describing t r a n s i t t r a v e l patterns to the core, with Vancouver and North Vancouver C i t y having r e l a t i v e l y , • 126 h i g h , p e r c a p i t a t r a n s i t t r i p l i n k s w i t h t h e c o r e compared t o p e r i p h e r a l r i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . 'An e a s t w a r d o r i e n t a t i o n o f work t r i p s t o t h e c o r e by t r a n s i t i n d i c a t e d t h e c o - v a r i a t i o n o f t r i p s w i t h l o w i n c o m e . B u t s h o p p i n g t r i p s p e r c a p i t a t o t h e c o r e d i d n o t appear t o be s e n s i t i v e t o income v a r i a t i o n i n o r i g i n z o n e s . These t r i p s were l o w p e r c a p i t a , and c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y a r e a , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t t h e C . B . D . m a i n t a i n s i t s dominance o v e r a m e t r o p o l i t a n w i d e m a r k e t ; h o w e v e r , t h e . l o w number o f t r i p s s u g g e s t s t h a t i t s e r v e s a s p e c i a l i z e d r o l e , i . e . t h e c o r e c a t e r s t o a c e r t a i n t y p e o f s h o p p i n g t r i p o r c o n s u m e r . To g i v e f u r t h e r i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e r e l e v a n c e o f t h e c o r e r i n g m o d e l , t h e r o l e o f t h e t r a n s i t s y s t e m as c o r e s e r v i n g s y s t e m was e x a m i n e d . G e n e r a l l y t h e c o r e r i n g mode l a p p e a r e d t o a p p l y , w i t h t h e i n n e r r i n g o f t h e u r b a n s y s t e m h a v i n g a g r e a t e r p e r c e n t a g e o f t o t a l work t r i p s g e n e r a t e d d e s t i n e d t o t h e c o r e . H o w e v e r , an o c c u r r e n c e o f a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f work t r i p s t o t h e c o r e was i n d i c a t e d i n c l o s e -i n a r e a s o f t h e p e r i p h e r a l r i n g a l s o ( B u r n a b y ) , w h i c h was s u g g e s t i v e o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t r a n s i t t o c a p t i v e p e r i p h e r a l a r e a r i d e r s ( low income o r f e m a l e ) who w o r k e d i n t h e c o r e . The p a t t e r n f o r s h o p p i n g t r i p s i n d i c a t e d t h a t as a means o f t r a v e l f o r t h i s p u r p o s e , t h e t r a n s i t s y s t e m was a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y a c o r e s e r v i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m . S o c i o -e c o n o m i c v a r i a t i o n d i d n o t a p p e a r t o be i m p o r t a n t i n 127 s t r u c t u r i n g t h e p e r c e n t o f t r a n s i t t r i p s t o t h e c o r e o f a l l t r i p s g e n e r a t e d f o r e i t h e r work o r s h o p p i n g t r i p p u r p o s e s . From t h e s e d e s c r i p t i v e a n a l y s e s , t h e " c o r e r i n g " h y p o t h e s i s a p p e a r s t o be t e n a b l e b u t w i t h a m i x e d i n f l u e n c e o f s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s e c t o r v a r i a t i o n f o r c o r e t r a n s i t c o n n e c t i o n s , w i t h c o n n e c t i o n s i n t e r m s o f s h o p p i n g t r i p s b e i n g l e a s t s e n s i t i v e t o t h i s t y p e o f i n f l u e n c e , b.) O r i e n t a t i o n o f s u b - a r e a s o f t h e c o r e was e x a m i n e d i n t e r m s o f t h e p e r c e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t r a n s i t t r i p o r i g i n s t o a l l c o r e z o n e s and t o i n d i v i d u a l c o r e z o n e s . F o r work t r i p s t o a l l c o r e z o n e s t o g e t h e r no s e c t o r a l b i a s was e v i d e n t , b u t a t t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d l e v e l , w e s t e r n c o r e z o n e s were g e n e r a l l y o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s w e s t e r n r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s and e a s t e r n c o r e z o n e s t o e a s t e r n r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s . F o r s h o p p i n g t r i p s t h e same a p p e a r e d t o be t h e c a s e , b u t i n t e r n a l movement w i t h i n t h e c o r e s u g g e s t e d t h a t many t r a n s i t r i d i n g s h o p p e r s v i s i t e d a l l c o r e r e t a i l a r e a s r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e i r zone o f o r i g i n . T h i s s u g g e s t s a b a l a n c e o f t r i p o r i g i n s t o t h e e n t i r e c e n t r a l s t u d y a r e a , q u a l i f y i n g t h e n o t i o n o f s e c t o r a l v a r i a t i o n o f s h o p p i n g t r i p p a t t e r n s i n t e r m s o f t h e i r o r i e n t a t i o n t o r e t a i l s u b - a r e a s o f t h e c o r e . 2) Summary o f F i n d i n g s o f S t a t i s t i c a l A n a l y s i s The s e c o n d l e v e l o f a n a l y s i s i n v o l v e d t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f m e a s u r a b l e a t t r i b u t e s o f r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s w h i c h were e x p e c t e d t o be f u n c t i o n a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r o p e n s i t y t o ; 128 generate work and shopping t r i p s to the core by t r a n s i t . A number of surrogate variables were i d e n t i f i e d to account for expected functional r e l a t i o n s h i p s underlying t h i s form of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . These represented the notions of complementarity, intervening opportunity and t r a n s f e r a b i l i t y (distance decay), as well as demand variables important to t r a n s i t use. Backwards stepwise regression procedures were employed to develop a model for work and shopping t r i p s to the core from a l l zones i n the study area and from Vancouver City zones only. Conclusions drawn from t h i s analysis supported some of the expected r e l a t i o n s h i p s , but not consistently. The backwards stepwise regression process selected zonal population, labour force and households as explanatory variables i n a l l cases, while variables representative of t r a v e l demand (automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y and median family income) were selected i n the work t r i p s from Vancouver zones case. Distance from the downtown core was not selected i n for any case. Only variables representative of zonal mass were thus found to be s i g n i f i c a n t i n explaining t r a n s i t t r a v e l to the core. The expected r o l e of t r a v e l demand and distance variables was not s i g n i f i c a n t . This suggests that these variables are not s i g n i f i c a n t i n structuring t r a n s i t t r a v e l patterns to the core, or that the scale of t r a f f i c zones used presented an aggregate data picture which was not 129 r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f c o r e d e s t i n e d t r a n s i t t r a v e l l e r s ' c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , o r i n any c a s e n o t f u n c t i o n a l l y r e l e v a n t i n t e rms o f h o m o g e n e i t y o f i m p o r t a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . T h i s p r o b l e m i s d i s c u s s e d a t g r e a t e r l e n g t h i n A p p e n d i x I I I . The l a c k o f i m p o r t a n c e o f d i s t a n c e on t h e o t h e r hand l e a d s one t o s u g g e s t t h a t t r a n s i t r i d e r s h i p may be o p e r a t i n g i n a f r i c t i o n - f r e e z o n e , a t l e a s t w i t h i n t h e C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r . T h i s n o t i o n was s u p p o r t e d somewhat i n t h e mapp ing o f r e s i d u a l s f rom r e g r e s s i o n where i t was shown t h a t work and s h o p p i n g t r i p s f r o m a l l zones were g e n e r a l l y o v e r - e s t i m a t e d by t h e e q u a t i o n s i n a r e a s o u t s i d e o f V a n c o u v e r . However , t h i s c o n c l u s i o n was c l o u d e d by t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f o v e r -e s t i m a t i o n i n some V a n c o u v e r z o n e s . F o r t h e V a n c o u v e r zones c a s e s o v e r - e s t i m a t i o n and u n d e r - e s t i m a t i o n was f o u n d t o c u t a c r o s s b o t h d i s t a n c e and s e c t o r a l ( s o c i a l s t a t u s ) v a r i a t i o n , w i t h f o r c e s o f d i s t a n c e and s o c i a l c l a s s a p p e a r i n g t o o p e r a t e i n s t r u c t u r i n g t r a n s i t t r a v e l i n some a r e a s , (South V a n c o u v e r ) , b u t n o t i n o t h e r s ( P o i n t G r e y ) . A much more d e t a i l e d e x a m i n a t i o n o f t r a n s i t t r a v e l p a t t e r n s t o t h e c o r e i s c a l l e d f o r b e f o r e c o n c l u s i o n s may be drawn f r o m t h e somewhat ambiguous f i n d i n g s o f t h i s s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s . 3) D i r e c t i o n s f o r F u r t h e r R e s e a r c h a) R e s e a r c h i n U r b a n S t r u c t u r e — O n e o f t h e m a j o r f o c i i o f t h i s t h e s i s has been t h e f u r t h e r t e s t i n g o f t h e f i n d i n g s o f • 130 o t h e r geographers i n case s t u d i e s of Vancouver's core area,' and i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p s , which h e l p d e f i n e the urban s t r u c t u r e df the G r e a t e r Vancouver M e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a . A core r i n g model was advanced by Hardwick and t h i s model was " t e s t e d " h e r e i n and i t was found to be g e n e r a l l y t e n a b l e i n terms of t r a n s i t t r a v e l p a t t e r n s . However, p u b l i c t r a n s i t i n the Vancouver metro area p l a y s a s m a l l r o l e i n the o v e r a l l p a t t e r n of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n i n G r e a t e r Vancouver, and t h i s t h e s i s can be c o n s i d e r e d o n l y as a p r e l i m i n a r y p i l o t study of these p a t t e r n s , and the urban s t r u c t u r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s they imply. D e f i n i t i v e r i g o r o u s l y c o n c e i v e d r e s e a r c h designs must be formulated to examine i n even f i n e r d e t a i l the r e l a t i o n s h i p s u n d e r l y i n g s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n f o r each aspect of movement i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n area. Hardwick and L e i g h ' s study of C.B.D. r e t a i l i n g p r o v i d e s one l i n k i n the study o f Vancouver's urban s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e as i t a p p l i e s to r e t a i l marketing. Another study of the same nature as W o l f o r t h ' s but w i t h i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f mode and i n d i v i d u a l t r a v e l l e r a t t r i b u t e s must be done b e f o r e one can accept Hardwick's n o t i o n of a core f o c u s s e d i n n e r r i n g . S i m i l a r s t u d i e s of the p e r i p h e r a l r i n g must a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d i f a t r u e u n d e r s t a n d i n g of Vancouver's urban s t r u c t u r e i s t o be a c h i e v e d . Only a f t e r a s p e c t s o f Vancouver case have been thoroughly s t u d i e d and documented can the f i n d i n g s be p u b l i s h e d f o r d i s c u s s i o n and g e n e r a l t h e o r i z i n g about urban s t r u c t u r e i n g e n e r a l . 131 b) R e s e a r c h i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g — T h i s t h e s i s has shown t h a t i n t h e s e a r c h f o r e x p l a n a t i o n (and t h e r e f o r e more r e l i a b l e p r e d i c t i o n ) o f urban t r a v e l p a t t e r n s , the s t u d y o f a g g r e g a t e s o r masses f a l l s s h o r t o f a c c u r a t e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e f o r c e s a t work i n s t r u c t u r i n g t r a v e l p a t t e r n s , and o f the r o l e and s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e s e f o r c e s . I t has been shown t h a t g e n e r a l i z e d c o n c e p t s o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n have e v o l v e d i n t o comprehensive m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s t o a c h i e v e t h e g o a l o f a c c u r a t e l y m o d e l l i n g as many f o r c e s as a r e a c c o u n t a b l e by t h e s e c o n c e p t s a t t h e a g g r e g a t e s c a l e ; however, an under-s t a n d i n g , o f t r a v e l b e h a v i o u r a t the d i s a g g r e g a t e s c a l e i s now needed. F u t u r e i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l r e s e a r c h must move towards t h e s t u d y o f f i n i t e b e h a v i o u r a l u n i t s such as t h e h o u s e h o l d , o r i n d i v i d u a l and g e n e r a l a s s o c i a t i o n s , i m p l i c i t i n t h e t r a v e l b e h a v i o u r o f t h e s e u n i t s . (See McCarthy, Appendix I I I ) Once an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f i n d i v i d u a l t r a v e l b e h a v i o u r i s a c h i e v e d , g r o u p i n g o f r e l e v a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o homogeneous a r e a s w i l l come c l o s e r t o s u c c e s s f u l l y m o d e l l i n g mass t r a v e l b e h a v i o u r t h a n do t h e p r e s e n t methods o f a r b i t r a r i l y s e l e c t i n g ' t r a v e l - s h e d s ' r e g a r d l e s s o f i n t e r n a l homogeneity o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 4) I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r P l a n n i n g * The " c o r e r i n g " model d e v e l o p e d from f i n d i n g s o f e a r l i e r c a s e s t u d i e s d e a l i n g w i t h a l l modes and a u t o m o b i l e 132 t r a v e l patterns, and supported by findings "of t h i s t h e s i s , has extremely important planning, implications for the Greater Vancouver urban area, and for other urban areas where a s i m i l a r system of s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n may be operating. Generally the following urban pattern i s evolving i n the Greater Vancouver area. The core area i s developing into an increasingly concentrated centre of high density, high income, white c o l l a r employment. The r e t a i l areas of the core serve a 'core r i n g ' of less than 5 miles and demonstrate sectoral o r i e n t a t i o n , while the growth of the downtown daytime population i n service, technical and administrative occupations w i l l continue to play a major r o l e i n supply of customers to downtown r e t a i l i n g , but these a c t i v i t i e s w i l l continue to serve a s p e c i a l i z e d r e t a i l shopping function within the core r i n g , e s p e c i a l l y for captive t r a n s i t r i d e r s . As Wolforth pointed out, the core labour shed i s oriented towards the higher income western sector of the c i t y , although t h i s thesis has suggested that t h i s was not the case for t r a n s i t r i d e r s who are captive r i d e r s for reasons of low income, age and automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y to women, and tend to originate primarily from areas within twenty to t h i r t y minutes by bus from the core, and show no d i s t i n c t d i r e c t i o n o r i e n t a t i o n on the whole. The implications of these findings to planning are that t r a n s i t r i d i n g i s not a popular means of long distance • 133 t r a v e l to the core, o f f e r i n g no r e a l comparative advantage to a t t r a c t 'choice riders'--those who f i n d t r a n s i t more convenient. Downtown employment opportunities, while continuing to provide lower income jobs, w i l l continue to increase i n the higher income categories as the P r o v i n c i a l economy develops", and Vancouver's core continues to a t t r a c t administrative a c t i v i t i e s . Housing for high income white c o l l a r managers and professionals has been t r a d i t i o n a l l y i n high amenity areas, ^located within the p h y s i c a l l y r e s t r i c t e d western sector of the core r i n g . Suitable a l t e r n a t i v e areas for high income group housing have developed at the extreme periphery of the metropolitan area ( i . e . Tsawwassen) forcing these people to t r a v e l to the core by car which i s contributing to peak period congestion on t r a v e l routes to the core for long distances. Mass t r a n s i t solutions to t h i s problem must therefore recognize that service should be f i r s t d i r e c t e d to those areas which are t r a d i t i o n a l l y strongly linked to the core, notably the North Shore and western areas of Greater Vancouver. At the same time, long range t r a n s i t planning must lead to the service of more distant commuter hinterlands, up to twenty miles from the core--notably to South Surrey, Delta and White Rock. These implications are advanced here for discussion. Perhaps subsequent study can more rigorously support or r e j e c t the findings of t h i s thesis and e a r l i e r case studies. Further study of these findings should be a prerequisite to long range t r a n s i t planning i n the Greater Vancouver area, l e s t t r a v e l routes be l a i d out which do not f i t the present pattern of s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n Greater Vancouver, and thus do not meet present nor anticipated t r a v e l demand. 135 BIBLIOGRAPHY Adams, W a r r e n T . " F a c t o r s I n f l u e n c i n g T r a n s i t and A u t o m o b i l e Use i n U r b a n A r e a s " , B u l l e t i n #2 30 , Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 19 5 9 , p p . 1 0 1 - 1 1 1 . B e r r y , B . J . L . , and M a r b l e , D . , e d s . S p a t i a l A n a l y s i s : A Reader i n S t a t i s t i c a l G e o g r a p h y , P r e n t i c e - H a l l , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , 1967 . B j e r r i n g , J . H . , D e m p s t e r , J . R . H . , and H a l l , R . H . UBC T r i p ( T r i a n g u l a r R e g r e s s i o n P a c k a g e ) , C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , F e b r u a r y , 1969 . B o c k , F . C . F a c t o r s I n f l u e n c i n g M o d a l T r i p A s s i g n m e n t , N a t i o n a l C o - o p e r a t i v e Highway R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m R e p o r t 5 7 , Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1968 . B o t t i n y , W a l t e r H . , and G o l e y , B e a t r i c e T . " A C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f U r b a n i z e d A r e a s f o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n A n a l y s i s " , HRR #194, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 7 , p p . 3 2 - 6 1 . B o u r c h a r d , R i c h a r d , and P y e r s , C l y d e E . "Use o f a G r a v i t y M o d e l f o r D e s c r i b i n g U r b a n T r a v e l : An A n a l y s i s and C r i t i q u e " , HRR #88, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1965 . ' B o y c e , D a v i d E . " E f f e c t o f T r i p D i r e c t i o n on I n t e r z o n a l T r i p V o l u m e s : T e s t o f a B a s i c A s s u m p t i o n o f T r i p D i s t r i b u t i o n M o d e l s " , HRR #165, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 7 , p p . 7 6 - 8 8 . Bunge , W i l l i a m . " T h e o r e t i c a l G e o g r a p h y " , Lund S t u d i e s i n G e o g r a p h y , S e r . C . , G e n e r a l and M a t h e m a t i c a l G e o g r a p h y , #1, G l e e r u p , L u n d , 1966 . C a r r o l , J . D . , and B e v i s , H.W. " P r e d i c t i n g L o c a l T r a v e l Demands i n U r b a n R e g i o n s " , PPRSA, V o l . 3 , R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , 1957 , p p . 1 8 3 - 1 9 7 . C a r r o t h e r s , G e r a l d A . P . " A n H i s t o r i c a l R e v i e w o f t h e G r a v i t y and P o t e n t i a l C o n c e p t s o f Human I n t e r a c t i o n " , J o u r n a l  A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s , V o l . 2 2 , N o . 2 , 1956 . C a s w e l l , W. S t e a r n s . " E f f e c t o f Zone S i z e o n Z o n a l I n t e r c h a n g e C a l c u l a t i o n s Based on t h e O p p o r t u n i t y M o d e l i n a Homogeneous R e g i o n " , HRR #165, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1967 , p p . 2 2 - 4 0 . 136 C h a p i n , S t u a r t F . J r . U r b a n Land Use P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y '{ o f I l l i n o i s , U r b a n a , 1 9 6 5 , c f . "The S t u d y o f U r b a n . A c t i v i t y S y s t e m s " , C h a p t e r 6> p p . 2 2 1 - 2 5 3 . C h e r n i a c k , N a t h a n . " C r i t i q u e o f Home I n t e r v i e w Type 0*D S u r v e y s i n U r b a n A r e a s " , Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , B u l l e t i n 2 5 3 , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 5 1 , jpp~. 166-7CK C h o r l e y , R . J . , and H a g g e t t , P . , e d s . M o d e l s i n G e o g r a p h y , M e t h u e n , L o n d o n , 1967 c f . B r i t t o n H a r r i s , " M o d e l s o f U r b a n Geography and S e t t l e m e n t L o c a t i o n " , p p . 30 3-36 0 . C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t . M e t r o p o l i t a n V a n c o u v e r , 1 9 5 5 , 1965 and 1 9 8 5 : S e l e c t e d D a t a From t h e  V a n c o u v e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y , V a n c o u v e r , M a r c h , 1967 . C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t . C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r P l a n , P a r t 1—The I s s u e s , V a n c o u v e r , .196 8. C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r : T e c h n i c a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . Downtown V a n c o u v e r , 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 7 6 , C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r Deve lopment P l a n , V a n c o u v e r , 1956 . C l a r k , C . , and P e t e r s , G . H . "The I n t e r v e n i n g O p p o r t u n i t i e s Method o f T r a f f i c A n a l y s i s " , T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , J a n u a r y , 1 9 6 5 , p p . 1 0 1 - 1 1 9 . C l e v e l a n d , D o n a l d E . , e d . M a n u a l o f T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r i n g S t u d i e s , I n s t i t u t e o f T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r s , W a s h i n g t o n , 1964 . C r o x t o n , F r e d e r i c k E . E l e m e n t a r y S t a t i s t i c s : W i t h A p p l i c a t i o n s i n M e d i c i n e and t h e B i o l o g i c a l S c i e n c e s , D o v e r , New Y o r k , 1959 . D e e n , T . B . , M e r t z , W . L . , and I r w i n , N . A . " A p p l i c a t i o n o f a M o d a l S p l i t M o d e l t o T r a v e l E s t i m a t e s f o r t h e W a s h i n g t o n A r e a " , HRR #38,Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 3 , p p . 9 7 - 1 2 3 . D o m e n c i c h , Thomas A . , K r a f t , G e r a l d , and V a l e t t e , J e a n P a u l . " E s t i m a t i o n o f U r b a n P a s s e n g e r T r a v e l B e h a v i o u r : An Economic Demand M o d e l " , HRR #238, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , 1 9 6 8 , p p . 6 4 - 7 8 . D r a p e r , N . R . , and S m i t h , H . A p p l i e d R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s , W i l e y , New Y o r k , 1968 . F e r t a l , M . J . , W e i n e r , E . , B a l e k , A . J . , , and S e v i n , A . F . M o d a l S p l i t : D o c u m e n t a t i o n o f N i n e Methods f o r E s t i m a t i n g  T r a n s i t U s a g e , U . S . Depar tment o f Commerce, B u r e a u o f P u b l i c R o a d s , O f f i c e o f P l a n n i n g , W a s h i n g t o n , 1966 . 137 F l e e t , C h r i s t o p h e r R . , and R o b e r t s o n , Sydney R. " T r i p G e n e r a t i o n i n t h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g P r o c e s s " , HRR #240, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 8 , p p . 1 1 - 3 1 . G a r r i s o n , W i l l i a m L . " E s t i m a t e s o f t h e P a r a m e t e r s o f S p a t i a l I n t e r a c t i o n " , P a p e r s and P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e R e g i o n a l  S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , V o l . 2 , 1956 , p p . 2 8 0 - 2 8 8 . G a r r i s o n , W . L . , B e r r y , B . J . L . , M a r b l e , D . R . , N y s t u e n , J . D . , and M o r r i l l , R . L . S t u d i e s o f Highway Deve lopment and G e o g r a p h i c C h a n g e , U n i v e r s i t y o f W a s h i n g t o n P r e s s , S e a t t l e , 1959 . H a n s e n , W a l t e r G. " E v a l u a t i o n o f G r a v i t y M o d e l T r i p D i s t r i b u t i o n P r o c e d u r e s " , HRB B u l l e t i n #347, W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 2 , p p . 6 7 - 7 6 ; * -H a r d w i c k , W . G . V a n c o u v e r . The Emergence o f New U r b a n P a t t e r n s , u n p u b l i s h e d d r a f t , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , 1969 . H a r d w i c k , W . G . and L e i g h R. Geography o f C e n t r a l R e t a i l i n g , ( d r a f t ) Depar tment o f G e o g r a p h y , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , F a l l , 1965 . H a r l a n d B a r t h o l o m e w & A s s o c i a t e s . A P l a n f o r t h e C i t y o f  V a n c o u v e r , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a i n c l u d i n g P o i n t G r e y and  S o u t h V a n c o u v e r and a G e n e r a l P l a n o f t h e R e g i o n , 1929 , V a n c o u v e r , 1929 . H a r l a n d B a r t h o l o m e w & A s s o c i a t e s . A P r e l i m i n a r y R e p o r t Upon  T r a n s i t (Mass T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) , V a n c o u v e r Town P l a n n i n g C o m m i s s i o n , V a n c o u v e r , 1945 . H a r p e r , B . C . S . , and E d w a r d s , H . M . " G e n e r a t i o n o f P e r s o n T r i p s by A r e a s W i t h i n t h e C . B . D . " , HRB B u l l e t i n , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 0 , p p . 4 4 - 6 3 . H i c k m a n , R i c h a r d . " G e n e r a t i o n o f B u s i n e s s T r i p s i n C e n t r a l L o n d o n " , T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r i n g and C o n t r o l , December , 1 9 6 7 , p p . 3 8 4 - 3 8 7 . H i c k m a n , R . M . The P e r i p h e r a l J o u r n e y t o Work i n V a n c o u v e r , M . A . T h e s i s , S c h o o l o f Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U . B . C . , M a y , 1968 . H i l l , D . M . , and Dodd , Norman. " T r a v e l Mode S p l i t i n A s s i g n m e n t P r o g r a m s " , HRB B u l l e t i n , N o . 347 , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 2 , p p . 2 9 0 - 3 0 1 . 138 H i l l , D . M . , and Von C u b e , H . G . " D e v e l o p m e n t o f a M o d e l f o r '•• F o r e c a s t i n g T r a v e l Mode C h o i c e i n Urban A r e a s " , HRR #38, W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 3 , p p . 7 8 - 9 6 . ' H i l l e , S t a n l e y J . , and M a r t i n , T h e o d o r e , K. "Consumer • \ P r e f e r e n c e i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n " , HRR #197, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 3 6 - 4 3 . H o r t o n , F r a n k , e d . G e o g r a p h i c S t u d i e s o f U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n  and N e t w o r k A n a l y s i s , S t u d i e s i n Geography # 1 6 , ' D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , " E v a n s t o n , 1968 . . H o r t o n , F r a n k E . , and S h u l d i n e r , P . W . "The A n a l y s i s o f L a n d -Use L i n k a g e s " , HRR #165, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 9 6 - 1 0 7 . Horwood , E . M . , and B o y c e , R. S t u d i e s o f t h e CBD and U r b a n  Freeway D e v e l o p m e n t , U n i v e r s i t y o f W a s h i n g t o n P r e s s , S e a t t l e . Howe, R o b e r t . " A T h e o r e t i c a l P r e d i c t i o n o f Work T r i p P a t t e r n s , HRB B u l l e t i n #253, 1 9 6 0 , p p . 1 5 5 - 1 6 5 . H u f f , D a v i d L . " A T o p o g r a p h i c M o d e l o f Consumer Space P r e f e r e n c e s " , PPRSA, V o l . 6 , 1 9 6 0 , p p . 1 5 9 - 1 7 4 . H u f f , D . L . " A Note on t h e L i m i t a t i o n s o f I n t r a - U r b a n G r a v i t y M o d e l s " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s , #38, 1 9 6 2 , p p . 6 4 - 6 6 . Hyman, G . M . , and W i l s o n , A . G . "The E f f e c t s o f Changes i n T r a v e l C o s t s on T r i p D i s t r i b u t i o n and M o d a l S p l i t " , H i g h Speed Ground T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , V o l . 3 ,• #1, J a n u a r y , 1969 , p p . 7 9 - 8 5 . I k l e , F . C . " S o c i o l o g i c a l R e l a t i o n s h i p o f T r a f f i c t o P o p u l a t i o n and D i s t a n c e " , T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , 1954 , p p . 1 2 3 - 1 3 6 . K a n w i t , Edmond L . , and G l a n c y , D a v i d M . "Use o f M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a Census D a t a f o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g " , HRR #115, 1966 , p p . 2 2 - 4 3 . K a s s o f f , H . , and D e u t s c h m a n n , H . D . " T r i p G e n e r a t i o n A C r i t i c a l A p p r a i s a l " , Highway R e s e a r c h R e c o r d #297, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 9 , p p . 1 5 - 3 0 . K e e f e r , L o u i s E . " C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f C a p t i v e and C h o i c e T r a n s i t T r i p s i n t h e P i t t s b u r g h M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a " , HRB B u l l e t i n #347, 1962 , p p . 2 4 - 3 3 . K e e f e r , L o u i s E . U r b a n T r a v e l P a t t e r n s f o r A i r p o r t s , S h o p p i n g  C e n t e r s , and I n d u s t r i a l P l a n t s , N a t i o n a l C o - o p e r a t i v e Highway R e s e a r c h F o r u m , R e p o r t #24, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1966 . 139 L a n s i n g , J o h n B . , and H e n d r i c k s , G a r y . "How P e o p l e P e r c e i v e t h e C o s t o f t h e J o u r n e y t o W o r k " , HRR #197, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 4 4 - 5 5 . L a p i n , Howard S. S t r u c t u r i n g t h e . Journey t o W o r k , U n i v e r s i t y o f P e n n s y l v a n i a P r e s s , P h i l a d e l p h i a , 1964 . L a r r y S m i t h & Company. . An E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s f o r C e n t r a l B u s i n e s s D i s t r i c t R e d e v e l o p m e n t , Phase O n e - - P r e l i m i n a r y  R e p o r t , p r e p a r e d f o r t h e C i t y P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t , The C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , S e a t t l e , 1 9 6 3 . L a w s o n , H . C . , and D e a r i h g e r , J . A . " A C o m p a r i s o n o f F o u r Work T r i p D i s t r i b u t i o n M o d e l s " , J o u r n a l o f t h e Highway D i v i s i o n , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y " ~ o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r s , November , 1 9 6 7 , p p . 1 -25 . N . D . L e a & A s s o c i a t e s L t d . U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n D e v e l o p m e n t s i n E l e v e n C a n a d i a n M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a s , C a n a d i a n Good Roads A s s o c i a t i o n , O t t a w a , S e p t e m b e r , 1966 . N . D . L e a & A s s o c i a t e s L t d . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Systems f o r t h e  C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r , An A p p r a i s a l , V a n c o u v e r , 1968 . L e i g h , . R o g e r . The J o u r n e y t o Work t o C e n t r a l L o n d o n , 1 9 2 1 -1 9 5 1 : A G e o g r a p h i c a l A n a l y s i s , u n p u b l i s h e d PhD. D i s s e r t a t i o n , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , London S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s and P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , L o n d o n , J u n e , 196 8. L e i g h , R. S p e c i a l t y R e t a i l i n g : A G e o g r a p h i c A n a l y s i s , B . C . G e o g r a p h i c a l S e r i e s , N o . 6 , T a n t a l u s , V a n c o u v e r , 1965 . L u k e r m a n n , F r e d , and P o r t e r , P . W . " G r a v i t y and P o t e n t i a l M o d e l s i n E c o n o m i c G e o g r a p h y " , A A A G , V o l . 5 0 , 1 9 6 0 , p p . 4 9 3 - 5 0 4 . M a c K i n n o n , R. A G e o g r a p h i c a l A n a l y s i s o f V e h i c u l a r S h o p p i n g  T r i p s t o t h e V a n c o u v e r C o r e , u n p u b l i s h e d p a p e r , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , U . B . C , V a n c o u v e r , 1965 . M a r b l e , Duane F . " A T h e o r e t i c a l E x p l a n a t i o n o f I n d i v i d u a l T r a v e l B e h a v i o r " , Q u a n t i t a t i v e G e o g r a p h y , G a r r i s o n and M a r b l e , e d s . D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , E v a n s t o n , 1 9 6 7 , p p . 3 3 - 5 5 . M a r c o u , George T . " A S u r v e y o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e on I n t e r -Community T r a f f i c " , HRB B u l l e t i n #347, 1 9 6 2 , p p . 3 0 2 - 3 1 8 . M a r t i n , B r i a n , M e n n o t t I I I , F r e d , and B o n e , A l e x J . P r i n c i p l e s  and T e c h n i q u e s f o r P r e d i c t i n g F u t u r e Demand f o r Urban  A r e a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , M . I . T . , C a m b r i d g e , 1 9 6 1 . 140 M a y e r , H a r o l d M . " U r b a n Geography and U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n • • "'• P l a n n i n g " , T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , V o l . 1 7 , N o . 4 , O c t o b e r , . 1 9 6 3 , p p . 6 1 0 - 6 3 1 . . . M c C a r t h y , G . M . " M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s o f H o u s e h o l d T r i p G e n e r a t i o n - - A C r i t i q u e " , Highway R e s e a r c h R e c o r d #297, "~ Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 9 , p p . 3 1 - 4 3 . M i t c h e l l , R o b e r t R . , and R a p k i n , C h e s t e r . U r b a n T r a f f i c : A F u n c t i o n o f Land U s e , C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , New Y o r k , 1954 . M o r r i l l , R. "The Movement o f P e r s o n s and t h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P r o b l e m " , Q u a n t i t a t i v e G e o g r a p h y , G a r r i s o n and M a r b l e , e d s . , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , E v a n s t o n , 1 9 6 7 , p p . 9 5 - 1 1 9 . M o s e s , L e o n N . " E c o n o m i c s o f Consumer C h o i c e i n U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n " , The Dynamics o f U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , S e c t i o n 1 6 , p p . 1-8 , 1962 . M o s e s , L e o n N . , and W i l l i a m s o n J r . , H a r o l d F . " V a l u e o f T i m e , C h o i c e o f Mode , and t h e S u b s i d y I s s u e i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n " , J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l Economy, V o l . 7 1 , N o . 3 , June 1963 . N o r d q u i s t , S t i g . " S t u d i e s i n G e n e r a t i c s " , P l a n , (Sweden) , 1 9 6 8 , p p . 8 3 - 9 0 . N y s t u e n , J o h n D. " A T h e o r y and S i m u l a t i o n o f I n t r a - U r b a n T r a v e l " , Q u a n t i t a t i v e G e o g r a p h y , G a r r i s o n and M a r b l e , e d s . , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , E v a n s t o n , 1 9 6 7 , p p . 5 4 - 8 3 . O i , W a l t e r Y . , and S h u l d i n e r , P a u l W. An A n a l y s i s o f U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Demands, T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C e n t e r , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , E v a n s t o n , 1962 . O l l s o n , G u n n a r . D i s t a n c e and Human I n t e r a c t i o n : A R e v i e w and  B i b l i o g r a p h y , B i b l i o g r a p h y ^ S e r i e s Number Two, R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e , P h i l a d e l p h i a , 1965 . O s o f s k y , Sam. "The M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n Method o f F o r e c a s t i n g T r a f f i c V o l u m e s " , T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , J u l y , 1959 , p p . 423-4 4 5 . O v e r g a a r d , K . R a s k . T r a f f i c E s t i m a t i o n i n U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n  : P l a n n i n g , A c t a P o l y t e c h n i c a S c a n d i n a v i c a , C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g and B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n S e r i e s N o . 3 7 , C o p e n h a g e n , 1966 . 141 P . p . Q . & D . , I n c . V a n c o u v e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y — 1 9 6 8 , '• V a n c o u v e r , 1968 . P e a t , M a r w i c k , L i v i n g s t o n and .Company. P r o j e c t i o n o f U r b a n  P e r s o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Demand, p r e p a r e d f o r t h e - * U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f H o u s i n g and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t , M a r c h , 196 8 D i s t r i b u t e d by t h e C l e a r i n g h o u s e f o r F e d e r a l S c i e n t i f i c and T e c h n i c a l I n f o r m a t i o n , U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f Commerce. P r e d , A l l a n . " B e h a v i o r and L o c a t i o n , F o u n d a t i o n s f o r a G e o g r a p h i c and Dynamic L o c a t i o n T h e o r y , P a r t 1 " , Lund  S t u d i e s i n G e o g r a p h y , S e r . B . Human Geography N o . 2 7 , G l e e r u p , L u n d , 196 7. R a n n e l l s , J o h n . The C o r e o f t h e C i t y , C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , New Y o r k , 1956 . • • i R u i t e r , E a r l R. " Improvement s i n U n d e r s t a n d i n g , C a l i b r a t i n g and A p p l y i n g t h e O p p o r t u n i t y M o d e l " , HRR #165, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 1 - 2 1 . S c h w a r t z , A r t h u r . " F o r e c a s t i n g T r a n s i t U s e " , HRB B u l l e t i n #297, 1 9 6 1 , p p . 1 9 - 3 5 . S c h w a r t z , A r t h u r . " S a m p l i n g Methods f o r t h e C o l l e c t i o n o f C o m p r e h e n s i v e T r a n s i t P a s s e n g e r D a t a " , HRR #205, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 8 6 - 9 5 . S h a r p e , G . B W H a n s e n , W . G . , and Hamner, L . B . " F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g T r i p G e n e r a t i o n o f R e s i d e n t i a l L a n d - U s e A r e a s " HRB B u l l e t i n , #203, 1 9 5 8 , p p . 2 0 - 3 7 . S h u l d i n e r , P a u l W. N o n - R e s i d e n t i a l T r i p G e n e r a t i o n ' A n a l y s i s R e s e a r c h R e p o r t , T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C e n t e r , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , E v a n s t o n , 1965 . Shunk , G . A . , G r e c o o , W . L . , and A n d e r s o n , V . L . "The J o u r n e y t o Work : A S i n g u l a r B a s i s f o r T r a v e l P a t t e r n S u r v e y s " , HRR #240, 1968 , p p . 3 2 - 5 1 . S o u s s l a u , A . B . , Heanue , K . E . , and B a l e k , A . J . " E v a l u a t i o n o f a New M o d a l S p l i t P r o c e d u r e " , HRR #88, p p . 4 4 - 6 8 . S t a r k i e , D . M . N . T r a f f i c and I n d u s t r y ; A S t u d y o f T r a f f i c  G e n e r a t i o n and S p a t i a l I n t e r a c t i o n , G e o g r a p h i c a l P a p e r s #3, London S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s and P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , L o n d o n , 1967 . 142 S t o u f f e r , S . A . " I n t e r v e n i n g O p p o r t u n i t i e s : A T h e o r y R e l a t i n g • '•• t o M o b i l i t y and D i s t a n c e " , A m e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i c a l R e v i e w , . V o l . 5 , December , 194 0 . S t o w e r s , J o s e p h R . , and K a n w i t , Edmond L . "The Use o f B e h a v i o r a l S u r v e y s i n F o r e c a s t i n g T r a n s p o r t a t i o n . ' " R e q u i r e m e n t s , HRR #115, 1966 , p p . 4 4 - 5 1 . S u t c l i f f e , E . D . , and M i l l s , D.W. "The T r a n s i t P l a n n i n g S t u d y I n c l u d i n g R a p i d T r a n s i t " , A S t u d y o f Highway P l a n n i n g  P a r t I I f o r M e t r o p o l i t a n V a n c o u v e r , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t #3, T e c h n i c a l Commit tee f o r M e t r o p o l i t a n Highway P l a n n i n g , 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 5 9 , V a n c o u v e r , 1959 . T a a f f e , E . J . , G a r n e r , B . J . , and Y e a t e s , M . H . The P e r i p h e r a l  J o u r n e y t o Work : A G e o g r a p h i c C o n s i d e r a t i o n , T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C e n t e r , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , E v a n s t o n , 1 9 6 3 . T e c h n i c a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . Downtown V a n c o u v e r 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 7 6 , C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r , M a r c h , 1 9 6 1 . T o m a z i n a s , A n t h o n y R. " M o d a l S p l i t M o d e l i n t h e P e n n - J e r s e y T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y A r e a " , HRR #165, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 4 1 - 7 5 . U l l m a n , Edward L . "The R o l e o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and t h e Bases f o r I n t e r a c t i o n " , M a n ' s R o l e i n C h a n g i n g t h e Face o f t h e  E a r t h , W . L . Thomas, e d . , C h i c a g o U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , C h i c a g o , 1956 , p p . 8 6 2 - 8 8 0 . V o o r h e e s , A l a n M . " A G e n e r a l T h e o r y o f T r a f f i c M o v e m e n t " , 1955 P r o c e e d i n g s , I n s t i t u t e o f T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r s , 1 9 5 5 , p p . 4-6-56 . -V o o r h e e s , A . M . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t , M i m e o , Town P l a n n i n g I n s t i t u t e o f Canada C o n f e r e n c e , June 2 1 , 1 9 6 3 . V o o r h e e s , A . M . , B e l l o m o , S . J . , S c h o f e r , J . L . , and C l e v e l a n d , D . E . " F a c t o r s i n Work T r i p L e n g t h s " , HRR #141, 1966 , p p . 2 4 - 4 6 . Von C u b e , H . G . , D e s j a r d i n s , R . J . , and D o d d , N . " A s s i g n m e n t o f P a s s e n g e r s t o T r a n s i t S y s t e m s " , T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r i n g , 2 8 , N o . 1 1 , ' 1 9 5 8 . Von C u b e , H . G . , and H i l l , D . M . N o t e s on S t u d i e s o f F a c t o r s  I n f l u e n c i n g P e o p l e ' s C h o i c e o f T r a v e l Mode, T r a f f i c R e s e a r c h C o r p o r a t i o n , J u l y 1 9 6 1 . 14 3 W h i t a k e r , R .W. , and W e s t , K . E . "The I n t e r v e n i n g O p p o r t u n i t i e M o d e l : A T h e o r e t i c a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n " , HRR #250, 1968 , p p . 1-7 . • W i a n t , R . H . " A S i m p l i f i e d Method f o r F o r e c a s t i n g Urban - T r a f f i c " , HRB B u l l e t i n #297, 1 9 6 1 . W o l f e , Roy I . " C o n t r i b u t i o n s f rom Geography t o U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h " , HRB B u l l e t i n #326, 1962 , p p . 4 6 - 6 8 . W o l f o r t h , J o h n . R e s i d e n t i a l L o c a t i o n and P l a c e o f W o r k , B . C . G e o g r a p h i c a l S e r i e s #4, T a n t a l u s , V a n c o u v e r , 1965 . Wynn, F . H . " S t u d i e s o f T r i p G e n e r a t i o n i n t h e N a t i o n ' s C a p i t a l " , HRB B u l l e t i n #230, 1 9 5 9 , p p . 1-52 . Wynn, F . H . , and L e v i n s o n , H . S . "Some C o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n A p p r a i s i n g Bus T r a n s i t P o t e n t i a l s " , HRR #197, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 1-24 . Wynn, F . H o u s t o n and L i n d e r , C E . " T e s t s o f I n t e r a c t a n c e F o r m u l a s D e r i v e d From O-D D a t a " , HRB B u l l e t i n , #253, 1 9 6 0 , p p . 6 2 - 8 5 . Yamane, T a r o . S t a t i s t j . c s : An I n t r o d u c t o r y A n a l y s i s , H a r p e r and Row, New Y o r k , 1964 . Z e t t e l , R i c h a r d M . , and C a r l l , R i c h a r d R. Summary R e v i e w o f . M a j o r M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d i e s i n t h e  U n i t e d S t a t e s , The I n s t i t u t e o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r i n g , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y , 1 9 6 2 . 144 APPENDIX I A REVIEW OF LITERATURE AND CONCEPTS ON SPATIAL INTERACTION l . ~ GRAVITY MODEL The g r a v i t y m o d e l , an a d a p t a t i o n f rom N e w t o n i a n p h y s i c s , i s b a s e d on t h e i n t e r a c t i o n h y p o t h e s i s ; t h e amount o f i n t e r a c t i o n o r g r a v i t a t i o n a l f o r c e be tween two g roups v a r i e s d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e s i z e o f t h e mass and i n v e r s e l y w i t h t h e d i s t a n c e t h a t s e p a r a t e s t h e m . ^ The b a s i c mode l t a k e s t h e f o r m : I i j = k P i P j Dn w h e r e : I i j = t h e amount o f i n t e r a c t i o n be tween p o i n t s i and j k = a c o n s t a n t ( e m p i r i c a l l y d e r i v e d ) P i P j = p o p u l a t i o n o r some o t h e r e x p r e s s i o n o f mass a t p o i n t s i and j D = d i s t a n c e s e p a r a t i n g p o i n t s i and j . (2) n = an e x p o n e n t o f d i s t a n c e ( a f t e r MacKay 1968) To o b t a i n a ' b e t t e r f i t ' t o t h e amount o f i n t e r a c t i o n ( I i j ) t h e mass and d i s t a n c e f a c t o r s a r e o f t e n m a n i p u l a t e d u n t i l g r e a t e r s t a t i s t i c a l ' e x p l a n a t i o n ' i s a c h i e v e d be tween t h e mode l and t h e r e a l w o r l d s i t u a t i o n i t a t t e m p t s t o r e p r e s e n t . -S u b - g r o u p s w i t h i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n mass , o r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h i s mass w h i c h a f f e c t t h e l i n k a g e be tween g r o u p s , a r e s o u g h t by w e i g h t i n g t h e o v e r a l l mas s , w h i l e t h e f u n c t i o n a l e f f e c t o f d i s t a n c e i s o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h an i t e r a t i v e p r o c e s s o f 145 applying exponents (n) to the distance factor u n t i l a representative measure of the f r i c t i o n of distance i s found. A.M. Voorhees was the f i r s t to apply gravity model (3) techniques to an urban transportation problem. He adapted R e i l l y ' s Law of R e t a i l Gravitation to simulate the p u l l of shopping areas on a group of shoppers. For shopping t r i p s f o r 'convenience goods', the f l o o r area i n food and drugs was used as the P^ mass factor. For shopping goods, the f l o o r area i n apparel produced the best f i t gravity model equation. Other t r i p purposes were represented by surrogate variables of t r i p end land use, such as for work t r i p s -number of employees, and for s o c i a l trips—number of dwelling units . He also recognized that for each t r i p purpose there .was a d i f f e r e n t reaction to the f r i c t i o n of distance which could be accounted for by deriving d i f f e r e n t distance measure exponents for each t r i p purpose. Work t r i p s tend to be less s e n s i t i v e to distance than shopping t r i p s so the corresponding values of the exponents are r e l a t i v e l y small. Typical values for d i f f e r e n t t r i p purposes are: 0.5 for work t r i p s , 2 to 3 for shopping t r i p s and 3 for s o c i a l - r e c r e a t i o n (4) t r i p s . p. 77-78 More recent models use t r a v e l time factors as the expression of the f r i c t i o n of distance for d i f f e r e n t t r i p purposes. These t r a v e l time factors are derived from observed data and are expressed i n terms of (5) numerical factors for d i f f e r e n t t r a v e l times. 146 R e c e n t g r a v i t y m o d e l f o r m u l a t i o n s b e a r l i t t l e 7 r e s e m b l a n c e t o t h e s i m p l e f o r m u l a p r e s e n t e d a b o v e . I n r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e i n f l u e n c e o f s o c i a l a n d e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a f f e c t i n g s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n t r a f f i c z o n e s , p a r a m e t e r s h a v e b e e n s e t up t o i n c o r p o r a t e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e e f f e c t o f t h e s e ' a n d o t h e r f o r c e s . A s an e x a m p l e , t h e G r a v i t y M o d e l o f t h e B u r e a u o f P u b l i c R o a d s t a k e s t h e f o r m : T i - j = G i A j . f ( d i j ) . K i - j * A x f ( d i - x > ' K i " X G i = t h e t o t a l number o f t r i p s o f t h e c a t e g o r y i n q u e s t i o n g e n e r a t e d a t z o n e i . A j = t h e t o t a l number o f t r i p s o f t h e c a t e g o r y i n q u e s t i o n a t t r a c t e d t o z o n e j . f ( d i - j ) = t r a v e l t i m e f a c t o r c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t r a v e l t i m e d i - j f r o m z o n e i t o z o n e j . K i - j = a n a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r f o r t r i p s f r o m z o n e i t o z o n e j . ( 6 ) T h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r s i s n e c e s s a r y b e c a u s e t r a v e l t i m e a n d l a n d u s e w e r e n o t f o u n d t o be s u f f i c i e n t t o ' e x p l a i n ' a n o b s e r v e d t r a v e l p a t t e r n . A d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r s a r e c h o s e n s o t h a t t r i p f r e q u e n c i e s s u r v e y e d c o i n c i d e w i t h t h o s e f o u n d b y a p p l y i n g t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l . By s y s t e m a t i c a l l y s t r a t i f y i n g t r i p s b y p u r p o s e , t r i p e n d s b y l a n d u s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m s b y f a c t o r s o f t i m e , c o s t , i n c o n v e n i e n c e , e t c . , a b a l a n c e i s a c h i e v e d b e t w e e n a c t u a l a n d m o d e l e d t r a v e l p a t t e r n s . 147 . . . . I n summary , s e v e r a l f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t r i p i n t e r c h a n g e a r e more o r l e s s e x p l i c i t l y t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t a n d ' p l u g g e d i n t o ' t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l t o s i m u l a t e t r a v e l p a t t e r n s . I n t e r m s o f u r b a n s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e , t h e i n i t i a l m o d e l was a d i s t a n c e m i n i m i z a t i o n m o d e l b a s e d o n t h e n o t i o n t h a t p e o p l e m i n i m i z e d i s t a n c e i n t h e i r t r a v e l p a t t e r n s ; h o w e v e r , t h e e f f e c t o f o t h e r f a c t o r s h a s b e e n shown t o t a k e o n more r e l e v a n c e i n m o d e l i n g t r a v e l p a t t e r n s . O l l s e n r e p o r t s i n h i s r e v i ' e w o f t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l t h a t ' s p a c e p r e f e r e n c e s ' r e s u l t i n g f r o m s o c i o - e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s o f o r i g i n z o n e p o p u l a t i o n s a f f e c t d i s t a n c e t r a v e l e d r a t h e r t h a n (7) d i s t a n c e , e s p e c i a l l y o v e r s h o r t d i s t a n c e s . T h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e s e comments a n d t h e e v o l u t i o n o f t h e . g r a v i t y m o d e l w h i c h h a s b e e n r e f i n e d t o a c c o u n t f o r e m p i r i c a l r e g u l a r i t i e s i n u r b a n s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e a n d i n t e r - a r e a c i r c u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s s u p p o r t t h e f i n d i n g s o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n s o f i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l p a t t e r n s i n s e v e r a l V a n c o u v e r c a s e 4- (8) s t u d i e s . W i t h r e g a r d t o t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e n o t i o n s o f c o m p l e m e n t a r i t y (9) a n d t r a n s f e r a b i l i t y . T h e n o t i o n o f i n t e r v e n i n g o p p o r t u n i t y i s n o t a c c o u n t e d f o r d i r e c t l y i n t h i s m o d e l , a l t h o u g h o n e c o u l d c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e d i s t a n c e f a c t o r a n d i t s e x p o n e n t , o r t r a v e l t i m e f a c t o r s , w h i c h w e r e e m p i r i c a l l y d e r i v e d , s u r r e p t i t i o u s l y i n c o r p o r a t e t h e e f f e c t s o f i n t e r v e n i n g 148 o p p o r t u n i t i e s on s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . The d i f f i c u l t y o f s e p a r a t i n g t h o s e two e f f e c t s t o ' d e t e r m i n e t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l . c o n t r i b u t i o n t o m o d e l l i n g t r a v e l p a t t e r n s i s d i f f i c u l t . T h i s c o n c e p t u a l and t e c h n i c a l d i f f i c u l t y w i l l be d i s c u s s e d f u r t h e r i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n o f t h e r e v i e w . One c o u l d a l s o c o n c l u d e t h a t some o f t h e a d j u s t m e n t f a c t o r s o f t h i s mode l c o u l d i n c o r p o r a t e t h e e f f e c t s o f i n t e r v e n i n g o p p o r t u n i t y . As t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l d e v e l o p e d , i t has moved away f rom t h e s i m p l e i n t e r a c t a n c e h y p o t h e s i s and t a k e n on t h e f o r m o f a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l , and one o f i t s k e y c o m p o n e n t s , ( d i s t a n c e ) has l e s s v a l u e a t t h e i n t r a - u r b a n s c a l e t h a n have mass w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r s . The n o t i o n o f g r a v i t a t i o n a l f o r c e , w h i l e v a l u a b l e i n i n i t i a l c o n c e p t i o n s o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , has g i v e n way t o more s o p h i s t i c a t e d e x p l a n a t o r y m o d e l s b a s e d on s u r r o g a t e v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g m o t i v a t i o n s t h a t u n d e r l y i n t e r a c t i o n , o r a t l e a s t a f f e c t m o t i v a t i o n i n a s y s t e m a t i c way . The g r a v i t y mode l and i t s p a r a l l e l i n u r b a n s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e , c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r y , a r e r e p l a c e d by mode l s b a s e d on s t r u c t u r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s r a t h e r t h a n p h y s i c a l l a w s o r r a t i o n a l " e c o n o m i c man" g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s . 2 . INTERVENING OPPORTUNITY MODEL F i r s t d e v e l o p e d by S t o u f f e r f o r m i g r a t i o n s t u d i e s i n 1940 , t h e i n t e r v e n i n g o p p o r t u n i t y mode l i s b a s e d on t h e c o n c e p t t h a t " t h e number o f p e o p l e g o i n g a g i v e n d i s t a n c e i s n o t a f u n c t i o n o f t h e d i s t a n c e d i r e c t l y b u t r a t h e r a f u n c t i o n 149 of the s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of opportunities. The intervening opportunity model simply states "the amount of .interaction over a given geographical distance i s d i r e c t l y proportional to the opportunities at that distance, but inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities".^"*""^ The equation for the intervening opportunity r e l a t i o n s h i p takes the form: AY _ -a x AS x s - i' Y .= the number of people moving from p to a l l places within a concentric zone of width s. x = the sum of opportunities at a l l points between p and s, and f i n a l l y x = the number of opportunities within the band s.(12\ Compared to the gravity model, i t has been argued that the intervening opportunity model i s conceptually stronger i n i t s c a p a b i l i t y for explaining s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . Stouffer stated "that the use of distance i n any explanatory model i s simply confusing the main r e l a t i o n s h i p which i s between movement and opportunities, with the a u x i l i a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p between distance and opportunities which i s almost c e r t a i n . , (13) to be present . Starkie, i n a comparative use of the opportunity model and the gravity model, observed that because of the a u x i l i a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p between distance and opportunities, 150 the two models are v i r t u a l l y the same, and" d i f f e r only i n ' (14) emphasis. Both models use the same "mass" factors and the " f r i c t i o n " factors of distance i n the gravity model, and intervening opportunities i n the opportunity model vary together. Zipf's p r i n c i p l e of least e f f o r t accounts for the in t e r - c o r r e l a t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p between distance and opportunities. The d e c l i n i n g number of opportunities as one moves outward from a centre of a c t i v i t y i s based on the notion that a c t i v i t i e s , when lo c a t i n g i n r e l a t i o n to one another, or people, when moving from a c t i v i t y to a c t i v i t y , endeavour to minimize intervening distance. I t i s d i f f i c u l t to separate the distance/opportunity r e l a t i o n s h i p into the i n d i v i d u a l e f f e c t s of'distance and opportunities on movement. From a conceptual standpoint, Stouffer's argument gives the opportunity factor greater explanatory powers. But, as demonstrated below, the d i f f i c u l t i e s of c a l i b r a t i n g the opportunity model have l i m i t e d i t s use for modeling movement at the intra-urban scale. ' An Intervening Opportunity, or simply Opportunity Model"for p r e d i c t i n g the d i s t r i b u t i o n of intra-urban t r a v e l was f i r s t developed by Morton Schneider for the Chicago Area (15) Transportation Study. His formulation d i f f e r s l i t t l e from Stouffer's i n i t i a l theory that the number of people moving a ce r t a i n distance i s d i r e c t l y proportional to the 151 number of opportunities at that distance and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities. Schneider's model altered t h i s concept by u t i l i z i n g a p r o b a b i l i t y function to account for intervening opportunities. The opportunity model he developed for the CATS states "that the p r o b a b i l i t y ' t h a t a t r i p w i l l terminate within some volume of destination points i s equal to the p r o b a b i l i t y that t h i s volume contains an acceptable destination, times the p r o b a b i l i t y that an; acceptable destination closer to the o r i g i n of the t r i p has not been found." Schneider's o r i g i n a l model took the form: V i j = V i x P (Sj) where V i j = t o t a l t r i p s from area i terminating i n area j ; V i = t o t a l t r i p s from area i ; and (17) P(Sj) = p r o b a b i l i t y of any t r i p ending i n area j . For computational purposes t h i s model has undergone several a l t e r a t i o n s with the model now mathematically expressed as: T i j = Oi e - L V j - e - L V j - l where T i j = expected interchange from zone i to zone j ; Oi = volume of t r i p o r i g i n s at zone i ; Vj = sum of possible destinations considered before reaching a given zone; L = constant p r o b a b i l i t y of a possible destination being accepted i f considered.(18) The a b i l i t y to accurately describe t r i p s using the above Opportunity Model rests on the proper s e l e c t i o n of the L 1 5 2 v a l u e . C o n s i d e r a b l e t i m e and e f f o r t o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s e a r c h e r s has been a p p l i e d t o • e s t a b l i s h i n g c o n s i s t e n t and r e l i a b l e ways o f c a l i b r a t i n g t h e " L " f a c t o r i n t h e o p p o r t u n i t y ( 1 9 ) m o d e l , and w i t h somewhat c o n f u s e d s u c c e s s . P r o c e d u r e s f o r d e r i v i n g L v a l u e s r a n g e f r o m d i r e c t f i t t i n g t o t h e e m p i r i c a l d a t a by g r o u p i n g zones i n t o l o n g .and s h o r t t r i p s , and by t r i p end d e n s i t y c l a s s e s , and i n s e r t i n g a -number o f L v a l u e s i n t o t h e e q u a t i o n u n t i l t h e 0-D d e r i v e d i n t e r a c t i o n i s m a t c h e d ; o r s t a t i s t i c a l d e r i v a t i o n o f L by means o f a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n p r o c e d u r e , o r by an i t e r a t i v e p r o c e d u r e u s i n g n u m e r i c a l a n a l y s i s t o s o l v e a n o n -l i n e a r e q u a t i o n . The l a t t e r was f o u n d t o be most s u c c e s s f u l by R u i t e r . i n a l l c a s e s t r i p s were s t r a t i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o l e n g t h and t r i p end d e n s i t y . L o n g t r i p s were f o u n d t o be d e s t i n e d i n l o w t r i p end d e n s i t y zones and v i c e v e r s a f o r s h o r t t r i p s , ( s u g g e s t i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p be tween l e n g t h o f t r i p and number o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s , o r i n o t h e r words t h e d e c l i n e o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i t h d i s t a n c e ) . Thus t o a l a r g e e x t e n t t h e o p p o r t u n i t y m o d e l i s r e l i a n t on t h e a u x i l i a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p be tween d i s t a n c e and o p p o r t u n i t i e s , a r e l a t i o n -s h i p w h i c h t h e g r a v i t y mode l a c c o u n t s f o r q u i t e r e a d i l y , and w i t h o u t t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t i e s e n c o u n t e r e d w i t h t h e o p p o r t u n i t y m o d e l . The o p p o r t u n i t y mode l has n o t been d e v e l o p e d t o t h e same e x t e n t as t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l f o r m u l a t i o n s t o i n c o r p o r a t e 153 other factors besides complementary and intervening opportunities to explain i n t e r a c t i o n . There i s no evidence of the i n c l u s i o n of factors other than distance and opportunities i n r e l a t i o n to the L value, for instance socio-economic or behavioural forces, and transportation network c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Undoubtedly these considerations would work towards achieving a more representative model--but at the same time would further complicate the derivation of L. . -;• • The intervening opportunity model has a more meaningful conceptual foundation i f one accepts Stouffer's argument. But l i k e the gravity model, the l e v e l of generalization used to develop i t i n i t i a l l y breaks down when a higher l e v e l of explanation i s sought. Complicated and conceptually questionable procedures have been adopted to f i t the model to empirical r e a l i t y , making i t s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n d i f f i c u l t . If one does not accept the argument of Stouffer, and adopts Starkie's observation, then eit h e r model i s applicable to explaining urban t r a v e l patterns since neither c l e a r l y separates the a u x i l i a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p between distance and intervening opportunities i n explaining s p a t i a l i n t e r -action. Recent formulations of the gravity model incorporates surrogate motivational f a c t o r s , and i n t h i s sense do not d i f f e r greatly from multiple regression models developed for explaining s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . These models incorporate as 154 many c o n c e p t u a l l y r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s as a r e n e c e s s a r y t o e x p l a i n s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n , a n d ' a r e n o t f o r m u l a t e d f r o m any one p a r t i c u l a r body o f ' t h e o r y ' o f movement as have t h e i n t e r v e n i n g o p p o r t u n i t y o r g r a v i t y m o d e l s . 3. M U L T I P L E R E G R E S S I O N M O D E L S The a n a l y s i s and e v e n t u a l e x p l a n a t i o n s o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n r e q u i r e s t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f f a c t o r s o r f o r c e s i n h e r e n t i n o r c a u s i n g - * movement. The n o t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g t h e g r a v i t y and o p p o r t u n i t y m o d e l s s e r v e t o i s o l a t e some o f t h e s e f o r c e s and p r o v i d e adequa te g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s o f mass b e h a v i o u r . As one s e e k s e x p l a n a t i o n f r o m e i t h e r o f t h e s e m o d e l s , a number o f u n a c c o u n t e d f a c t o r s a p p e a r , and b o t h mode l s r e l y on i t e r a t i v e e q u a t i o n f i t t i n g p r o c e d u r e s t o a c c o u n t f o r t h i s v a r i a t i o n o u t s i d e o f t h e m o d e l ' s c o n c e p t u a l p a r a m e t e r s . A s i m i l a r breakdown o f h i g h l y g e n e r a l i z e d u r b a n s p a t i a l s t r u c t u r e m o d e l s , s u c h as c e n t r a l p l a c e t h e o r y , was r e c o r d e d i n c a se (21) s t u d i e s o f t h e V a n c o u v e r u r b a n a r e a . a) The T e c h n i q u e " B e f o r e p r o c e e d i n g w i t h a r e v i e w o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t and use o f m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s f o r i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l p a t t e r n a n a l y s i s , a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e t e c h n i q u e , i t s a s s u m p t i o n s , and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s a r e p r o v i d e d . 155 Regression measures the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a . "dependent v a r i a b l e " (y) and an "independent • v a r i a b l e " (x), or i n multiple regression, a set of independent variables (Xl X2 X3). Relationships are a c t u a l l y summarized by an estimating equation that measures changes i n y per unit change i n x and by various associated s t a t i s t i c s that indicate the r e l i a b i l i t y of the estimating equation (regression "model") and that provide further descriptions of the association between the dependent and independent var i a b l e s . In short, the regression s t a t i s t i c s r e l a t e v a r i a t i o n i n the dependent variable to measured v a r i a t i o n i n the independent variable(s) and to t h i s extent explain changes i n X l , X2, etc. (22) Leigh points out that through regression analysis the transportation geographer i s able to "assess the weight and importance of some p o t e n t i a l l y explanatory variables thought to represent forces or factors that could have brought about t r a v e l patterns". However, t h i s technique has weaknesses,which a f f e c t i t s explanatory c a p a b i l i t i e s and these must be taken into consideration. As an a n a l y t i c a l t o o l for the exploration of causative or explanatory r e l a t i o n s h i p s , consideration must be given to assumptions made with regard to the s e l e c t i o n of independent variables, and to the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the estimating equation and i t s associated s t a t i s t i c s which determine the v a l i d i t y of the estimating equation. Independent variables must be normally d i s t r i b u t e d , independent and additive i f they are to be considered as v a l i d causative factors i n explaining the v a r i a t i o n i n the dependent vari a b l e . However, since the multiple regression technique i s considered quite powerful, the f i r s t 156 a s s u m p t i o n can be r e l a x e d i f a h i g h l e v e l o f s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e i s u s e d i n s e l e c t i n g i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s ( a l t h o u g h t h i s c r e a t e s i n t e r p r e t i v e p r o b l e m s ) . When v a r i a b l e s a r e n o t i n d e p e n d e n t , i n t e r - c o r r e l a t i o n e x i s t s ( i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s v a r y t o g e t h e r ) and t h e r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e a c h v a r i a b l e c a n n o t be a c c u r a t e l y d e t e r m i n e d . T h i s r e d u c e s t h e e x p l a n a t o r y u t i l i t y o f t h e : r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and as a r e s u l t t h e m u l t i p l e (23) r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s has l i m i t e d r e s e a r c h v a l u e . (To remedy t h i s s i t u a t i o n p r i n c i p l e components a n a l y s i s may be u s e d t o i d e n t i f y i n t e r - c o r r e l a t e d g r o u p s o f v a r i a b l e s and s e l e c t t h a t v a r i a b l e w h i c h i s most r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e g r o u p f o r i n c l u s i o n i n t h e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l . ) The i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e e q u a t i o n i n v o l v e s c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e RSQ ( c o e f f i c i e n t o f m u l t i p l e d e t e r m i n a t i o n ) , t h e F s t a t i s t i c (an e x p r e s s i o n o f s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e ) , and t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f e s t i m a t e (a measure s i m i l a r t o t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n ) . The RSQ e x p r e s s e s t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f v a r i a t i o n i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a c c o u n t e d f o r by t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s on t h e r i g h t s i d e o f t h e e q u a t i o n . The F s t a t i s t i c d e t e r m i n e s i f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p e x p r e s s e d by t h e e q u a t i o n i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . The s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f e s t i m a t e g i v e s t h e r a n g e o f v a l u e s f o r t h e e s t i m a t e d d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . The p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e e q u a t i o n 157 w i l l e s t i m a t e t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e w i t h i n o n e , t w o , o r t h r e e s t a n d a r d e r r o r s of, e s t i m a t e i s t a k e n f r o m t h e n o r m a l c u r v e d i s t r i b u t i o n p r o b a b i l i t y t a b l e (68.26%) w i t h i n one s . e . o f e s t . , 95.44% w i t h i n two and 99% w i t h i n t h r e e ) . These s t a t i s t i c s must be b a l a n c e d i f t h e e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n i s t o have any m e a n i n g as an a n a l y t i c a l d e v i c e ; f o r i n s t a n c e an e q u a t i o n w i t h a l a r g e RSQ w h i c h i s n o t s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , o r w h i c h r e s u l t s i n a v e r y l a r g e s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f e s t i m a t e w i l l n o t be as m e a n i n g f u l " a s an e q u a t i o n o f a l o w e r RSQ w h i c h i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , and does n o t v a r y as much i n i t s chance o f a r r i v i n g a t t h e c o r r e c t v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . The m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e i s o f t e n n o t a mode l b a s e d on a p r i o r i t h e o r y b u t a means o f m e a s u r i n g t h e l e v e l o f a s s o c i a t i o n be tween a g r o u p o f v a r i a b l e s t a k e n t o g e t h e r and some f a c t o r w h i c h i s b e i n g e x p l a i n e d i n t e r m s o f i t s a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h t h e s e v a r i a b l e s . The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s i n u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s b a s e d b o t h on c o n c e p t u a l n o t i o n s and on e m p i r i c a l f i n d i n g s . I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f I n d e p e n d e n t V a r i a b l e s f o r M u l t i p l e  R e g r e s s i o n M o d e l s o f I n t r a - U r b a n T r a v e l R e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s have been u s e d e x t e n s i v e l y i n u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g t o i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s 158 associated with intra-urban t r a v e l patterns. The conceptual or t h e o r e t i c a l bases for se l e c t i n g and using these factors for pr e d i c t i o n are drawn from systems ideas and from economic notions applied to s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n or t r a f f i c generation. M i t c h e l l and Rapkin were the f i r s t to use the systems (functional) approach to urban transportation analysis. They considered t r a f f i c as a function of land use a c t i v i t y (24) systems i n t e r a c t i n g through time and space. ' Trips were c l a s s i f i e d according to t h e i r purpose and took place between an o r i g i n and destination related to the f u l f i l l m e n t of t h i s purpose. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t r i p o r i g i n and t r i p end land use which affected the propensity to i n t e r a c t were then i d e n t i f i e d and quantified. Trips o r i g i n a t i n g i n (generated by) r e s i d e n t i a l areas were found to be affected by the composition and character of the population. Trips attracted to commercial centres were found to be related to the siz e and character (order of convenience) of the centre. Transportation f a c i l i t i e s were also found to have an e f f e c t on s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n i n t h i s early study. The findings of M i t c h e l l and Rapkin were elaborated i n subsequent work i n the analysis of factors associated with intra-urban t r a v e l i n urban transportation l i t e r a t u r e . These early findings also coincide with the notions of 159 (25) s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n p u t f o r w a r d by U l l m a n i n t h e g e o g r a p h i c a l l i t e r a t u r e . These p a r a l l e l s o f t h o u g h t w i l l be d i s c u s s e d l a t e r a f t e r a r e v i e w o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g l i t e r a t u r e . O i and S h u l d i n e r ' s A n a l y s i s o f U r b a n T r a v e l Demands p r o v i d e s a c o m p r e h e n s i v e s t u d y o f t h e use o f c o n c e p t s f r o m e c o n o m i c s t o i d e n t i f y f o r c e s a f f e c t i n g i n t r a - u r b a n (26) t r a v e l . v • T a k i n g a f u n c t i o n a l a p p r o a c h w i t h i n t h e f ramework o f economic t h e o r y , t h e y examine u r b a n t r a v e l demands as p a r t o f a l a r g e r demand f o r an economic good o r s e r v i c e - - i n o t h e r words as a d e r i v e d demand o r p a r t o f a j o i n t demand. They d i v i d e t r i p s i n t o t h o s e w h i c h a r e c o n s u m p t i o n o r i e n t e d and t h o s e w h i c h a r e p r o d u c t i o n o r i e n t e d . They t h e n i s o l a t e f a c t o r s w h i c h a f f e c t demand w i t h i n t h e s e two t r i p c a t e g o r i e s . F o r i n s t a n c e , c o n s u m p t i o n o r i e n t e d t r i p p u r p o s e s t o s a t i s f y l e i s u r e demands w i l l be a f u n c t i o n o f : (1) consumer space p r e f e r e n c e p a t t e r n s , (2) h i s income o r w e a l t h , (3) p r i c e o f j o i n t c o m m o d i t i e s and (4) p r i c e s o f c o m p l e m e n t a r y o r c o m p e t i n g goods (or s e r v i c e s ) . Consumer space p r e f e r e n c e s , a b e h a v i o u r i s t i c v a r i a b l e , a r e measured i n t e rms o f s u r r o g a t e o r p r o x y v a r i a b l e s s u c h as a g e , s e x , i n c o m e , o c c u p a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n and o t h e r measures o f s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . P r o d u c t i o n o r i e n t e d t r i p s a r e a r e s u l t o f f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h i c h c a n a l s o be s p e c i f i e d 160 by factors a f f e c t i n g the demand for t r a v e l . For instance, the journey to work w i l l be a function of labour force and employment c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and t h e i r d i s t r i b u t i o n i n the urban area. Those factors l i s t e d above (1-4) w i l l also a f f e c t demand for t h i s kind of t r i p . In addition, transportation f a c i l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , such as the a v a i l a b i l i t y of automobiles, frequency of buses, and distance between a c t i v i t i e s are c i t e d as a f f e c t i n g the demand for intra-urban t r a v e l . Urban transportation studies i n the United States have been i d e n t i f i e d and used for p r e d i c t i v e purposes a wide range of variables found to be associated with i n t r a -urban t r a v e l patterns. These variables have been selected as a r e s u l t of studies of which M i t c h e l l and Rapkin's and Oi and Shuldiner's are representative. Other studies of t h i s type are found i n numerous Highway Research Board (27) publications. A l i s t of independent variables has been compiled from transportation studies i n 78 United (28) States urban areas between 1955 and 1967. (1) Residential Based Trips Population Persons over 5 Persons over 5 making t r i p s P o p u l a t i o n — C e n t r a l C i t y Resident Employment Labour Force School Attendance Median Income Per Household Average Family Income 161 T o t a l Income H o u s e h o l d s P e r C e n t S i n g l e - F a m i l y D w e l l i n g U n i t s A u t o m o b i l e s A v a i l a b l e T r i p s p e r P e r s o n by Income T r i p s p e r H o u s e h o l d by Income (2) N o n - R e s i d e n t i a l Based T r i p s T o t a l Employment C a t e g o r i z e d Employment Employment C e n t r a l C i t y R e t a i l S a l e s P e r C e n t R e t a i l S a l e s i n CBD S c h o o l E n r o l m e n t V e h i c l e s A v a i l a b l e A r e a C e n t r a l C i t y A r e a CBD (3) T r i p P u r p o s e and Mode C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s P e r Cent . T r a n s i t T r i p s P e r C e n t T r i p s t o CBD Highway M i l e a g e T r a n s i t M i l e a g e T r i p P u r p o s e S p l i t T r i p Mode S p l i t T r i p L e n g t h by Mode T r i p L e n g t h by P u r p o s e V e h i c l e M i l e s T r a v e l l e d 4. MODAL SPLIT MODELS M o d a l s p l i t i s t h e g e n e r a l t e r m g i v e n t o p r o c e d u r e s d e v e l o p e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l t h a t i s t o be a l l o c a t e d t o t h e two p r i m a r y a l t e r n a t i v e modes o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , p u b l i c mass t r a n s i t and p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e s . T h r e e c a t e g o r i e s o f f a c t o r s f o u n d s i g n i f i c a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g moda l s p l i t have been i s o l a t e d : (1) c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e t r i p , (2) c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e t r i p maker and (3) c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s y s t e m . 162 M o d a l s p l i t mode l s have been d e v e l o p e d t h r o u g h t h e ' e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s o f f a c t o r s f o u n d t o a f f e c t mode c h o i c e . T h i s c h o i c e i s c o n s i d e r e d a r e s u l t o f t h e w i s h on t h e p a r t o f t h e commuter t o m a x i m i z e s a t i s f a c t i o n and m i n i m i z e d i s c o m f o r t (29) i n m a k i n g a t r i p . H i s c h o i c e o f mode i s s een as a f u n c t i o n o f v a r i o u s e c o n o m i c , p s y c h o l o g i c a l and s o c i o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s w h i c h a r e r e l e v a n t t o h i m , and t h e s e i n t u r n v a r y w i t h t h e n a t u r e o f t h e t r i p ( f o r e x a m p l e , r o u n d t r i p , s h o r t d i s t a n c e ) and t h e p u r p o s e o f t h e t r i p . The t r i p m a k e r ' s c h o i c e w i l l t h u s depend on h i s c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f money c o s t s , t i m e c o s t s and i n c o n v e n i e n c e c o s t s , t h e l a t t e r b e i n g a measure o f t h e d i s u t i l i t y t h e i n d i v i d u a l f e e l s i s i n v o l v e d i n t r a v e l l i n g by t h a t mode. M o d a l s p l i t mode l s have been u sed s i n c e 1955 i n m a j o r u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and C a n a d a . M o s t n o t a b l e among t h e f o r m e r a r e : C h i c a g o , P i t t s b u r g h , E r i e , S e a t t l e - T a c o m a , (Puget S o u n d ) , M i l w a u k e e - R a c i n e - K e n o s h a , ( S o u t h w e s t e r n W i s c o n s i n ) , W a s h i n g t o n , M i n n e a p o l i s - S t . P a u l , San J u a n , P u e r t o R i c o , and B u f f a l o . The C a n a d i a n example i s t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o A r e a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y . A l l t h e s e s t u d i e s have i n c o r p o r a t e d some o f t h e f o l l o w i n g l i s t o f v a r i a b l e s i n m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o d e t e r m i n e -i • , (30) moda l s p l i t : , (1) T r i p C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s T r i p p u r p o s e s L e n g t h o f t r i p Time o f day O r i e n t a t i o n t o CBD \ 163 (2) T r i p Maker C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s • ; Auto ownership R e s i d e n t i a l d e n s i t y Income Workers per household ' D i s t a n c e to CBD Employment d e n s i t y (3) T r a n s p o r t a t i o n System C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s T r a v e l time T r a v e l c o s t P a r k i n g c o s t Excess t r a v e l time* . A c c e s s i b i l i t y * * Modal s p l i t models are c l a s s i f i e d as " t r i p end" models and " t r i p i n t e r c h a n g e " models. T r i p end models use m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n to a l l o c a t e a p o r t i o n o f t o t a l o r i g i n s and d e s t i n a t i o n s t o a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n modes" b e f o r e t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n by a g r a v i t y o r o p p o r t u n i t y model. T r i p 'interchange models a l l o c a t e p o r t i o n s o f g i v e n person t r i p movements r e s u l t i n g from t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n to a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n modes. T r i p End Models T r i p end Modal S p l i t models take the volume of t r i p s generated by or a t t r a c t e d t o a g i v e n t r a f f i c zone and a l l o c a t e t h i s volume to a l t e r n a t i v e modes of urban t r a n s p o r t . The f o r e c a s t procedure i n v o l v e s the d e r i v a t i o n o f f u t u r e z o n a l * T r a v e l time spent o u t s i d e the v e h i c l e d u r i n g the t r i p ; walk, w a i t and t r a n s f e r times f o r t r a n s i t t r i p s and p a r k i n g d e l a y time f o r auto t r i p s . **A measure o f the l e v e l o f t r a v e l s e r v i c e p r o v i d e d by the t r a n s i t o r highway system t o t r i p ends i n the study area. 164 t r i p vo lumes by a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n mode l w h i c h t a k e s i n t o a c c o u n t t h o s e l a n d use and s o c i o - e c o n o m i c v a r i a b l e s d i s c u s s e d i n t h e f o r e g o i n g s e c t i o n . These vo lumes a r e t h e n s u b j e c t e d t o a " " m o d a l s p l i t m o d e l " w h i c h a s s i g n s t r i p s t o a l t e r n a t i v e modes . A l l moda l s p l i t mode l s i n c o r p o r a t e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o s e l e c t s t a t i s t i c a l l y s t r o n g and c o n c e p t u a l l y v i a b l e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . The f i v e t r i p end mode l s d i s c u s s e d i n t h e a b o v e - m e n t i o n e d r e p o r t have f o u n d t h a t t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f a n - a u t o m o b i l e ; p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y and i n c o m e ; t h e p u r p o s e , l e n g t h and t h e o r i e n t a t i o n o f t h e t r i p , and a r a t i o measure o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f e a c h zone t o each o t h e r zone by a l t e r n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n sy s tems have a m e a s u r a b l e and c o n s t a n t e f f e c t on t h e p r o p e n s i t y o f a g i v e n zone t o p r o d u c e t r a n s i t t r i p s i n a m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , as d e s c r i b e d b e l o w . . (1) A u t o m o b i l e A v a i l a b i l i t y - - T h e g r e a t e r t h e number o f a u t o m o b i l e s o f t h e number o f t o t a l t r i p s f e w e r w i l l be by t r a n s i t . A l s o i m p o r t a n t h e r e i s t h e c o n c e p t o f ' c h o i c e ' and ' c a p t i v e ' t r a n s i t t r i p s u sed i n t h e (31) P i t t s b u r g h t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d y . Choxce t r i p makers o r t r i p s r e f e r t o t h o s e p e r s o n s o r t r i p s w h i c h have s e l e c t e d an a l t e r n a t i v e mode, whereas c a p t i v e t r i p makers o r t r i p s a r e t h o s e where no a l t e r n a t i v e mode i s a v a i l a b l e . (2) P o p u l a t i o n D e n s i t y — U s e d i n t h e P i t t s b u r g h and P u g e t Sound m o d e l s . I n t h e P i t t s b u r g h mode l i t was f o u n d t h a t CBD and o t h e r t r a n s i t t r i p p r o d u c t i o n s were 165 d i r e c t l y related, to net r e s i d e n t i a l density and that school t r a n s i t t r i p s were inversely r e l a t e d to i t , a factor of the increased number of walk t r i p s i n denser (32) areas. (3) Income—Used i n the Puget Sound Study. Income i s i n e f f e c t a proxy variable for automobile ownership. Below a ce r t a i n income, families d i d not own automobiles but above t h i s an ascending proportion of automobiles per household i s found. Income i n i t s e l f has a re l a t i o n s h i p i n the number of t r i p s produced but i t i s d i f f i c u l t to separate th i s r e l a t i o n s h i p from that of automobile a v a i l a b i l i t y . (4) Orientation of the T r i p — A factor considered i n the Chicago and Pittsburgh models. Trips were divided into CBD and non-CBD or central and l o c a l t r i p s for modal s p l i t . In Chicago t r i p s to the CBD were found to be longer and were made by persons predominantly i n working age groups whereas shorter, l o c a l t r i p s were made by younger and older persons and were for non-work purposes. The importance of t h i s o r i e n t a t i o n c l a s s i f i c a t i o n was further demonstrated i n the Pittsburgh study. Of a l l t r i p s made by t r a n s i t , 85 per cent were by captive r i d e r s who, because of age or income, did not have access to an automobile and of the remaining 15 per cent 12 per cent of the choice t r i p s were destined to the CBD. (5) A c c e s s i b i l i t y R a t i o s — W e r e d e r i v e d f o r t r a f f i c i n t h e E r i e , P u g e t Sound and S o u t h w e s t e r n W i s c o n s i n modal s p l i t m o d e l s . These r a t i o s a r e measures o f t h e r e l a t i v e ;" a c c e s s i b i l i t y each zone has t o a l l o t h e r zones by a l t e r n a t i v e means' o f t r a v e l . The a c c e s s i b i l i t y r a t i o s ' • • • / •• • i n t h e P u g e t / S o u n d and W i s c o n s i n mode l s a r e s i m i l a r i n t h a t t h e y b o t h d e r i v e a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n d i c e s f o r t h e t r a n s i t s y s t e m and t h e h i g h w a y s y s t e m , u s i n g z o n a l t r i p p r o d u c t i o n and a t t r a c t i o n vo lumes and f r i c t i o n f a c t o r s . The t r a n s i t s y s t e m i n d e x i s t h e n d i v i d e d by t h e h i g h w a y s y s t e m i n d e x g i v i n g a r a t i o w h i c h d e m o n s t r a t e s a d i r e c t c u r v i l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o t h e p e r c e n t o f a g i v e n t r a n s i t u s e . T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p however i s a l s o s u b j e c t t o t h e m o d i f y i n g i n f l u e n c e s o f t r i p p u r p o s e and i n c o m e . The above l i s t e d v a r i a b l e s c o m p r i s e t h e s t a t i s t i c a l l y and f u n c t i o n a l l y r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s i n t r i p end moda l s p l i t m o d e l s . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t o n l y v e r y g e n e r a l comment has been made on t h e i r use and i m p l i c a t i o n s i n moda l s p l i t a n a l y s i s and p r o j e c t i o n . T r i p I n t e r c h a n g e M o d e l s F o r t h e s ake o f b r e v i t y o n l y one o f many " t r i p i n t e r c h a n g e moda l s p l i t m o d e l s " w i l l be e x a m i n e d . The N a t i o n a l C a p i t a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y f o r W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . i n t e r c h a n g e mode l w i l l s e r v e as an example o f one o f t h e more c o m p r e h e n s i v e a p p r o a c h e s t o mode s e l e c t i o n mode l s i n : 167 • (33) u r b a n a r e a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s m N o r t h A m e r i c a . The W a s h i n g t o n model i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e i n t h a t i t i n c o r p o r a t e s . a l m o s t a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s u sed i n o t h e r s t u d i e s . More s o p h i s t i c a t e d mode l s have a l s o been d e v e l o p e d , h o w e v e r , t h e s e a r e beyond t h e s c o p e ^ o f t h i s p a p e r . The W a s h i n g t o n model i s b a s e d on a m a r k e t c o n c e p t where a l l p e o p l e m o v i n g be tween an o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n c o n s t i t u t e s a t r a v e l m a r k e t . D e p e n d i n g on t h e i r c o m p e t i t i v e p o s i t i o n w i t h r e s p e c t t o r e l a t i v e t r a v e l t i m e , r e l a t i v e t r a v e l c o s t , t h e e c o n o m i c s t a t u s o f t h e t r i p maker and r e l a t i v e t r a v e l s e r v i c e , t r i p s were a l l o c a t e d t o e a c h mode. D i v e r s i o n c u r v e and m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s were u s e d t o s e l e c t t h e s e v a r i a b l e s f o r i n c l u s i o n i n t h e e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n , w h i l e t h e f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s d e m o n s t r a t e d l i n e a r dependency w i t h t h e above v a r i a b l e s and were e x c l u d e d f r o m t h e m o d e l : — T r i p l e n g t h , p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y , employment d e n s i t y , t r a n s i t s e a t c a p a c i t y , and o r i e n t a t i o n t o t h e CBD. t A d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e f o u r i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s u s e d (35) i n t h e mode l i s g i v e n h e r e : (1) T r a v e l - T i m e R a t i o : TTR = X 1 + X 2 + X 3 + X 4 + X 5 Xg+X 7+Xg whe r e : X^ = t i m e s p e n t i n t r a n s i t v e h i c l e = t r a n s f e r t i m e be tween t r a n s i t v e h i c l e s 168 X ^ = t i m e s p e n t w a i t i n g f o r t r a n s i t v e h i c l e s X^ = w a l k i n g t i m e t o t r a n s i t v e h i c l e X,- = w a l k i n g t i m e f r o m t r a n s i t v e h i c l e Xg = a u t o d r i v i n g t i m e X^ = p a r k i n g d e l a y a t s t a t i o n Xg = w a l k i n g t i m e f rom p a r k i n g p l a c e t o d e s t i n a t i o n . (2) R e l a t i v e T r a v e l C o s t : T r a v e l C o s t R a t i o = X n ( X 1 0 + X 1 1 + 0 . 5 X 1 2 ) / X 1 3 = t r a n s i t f a r e X 1 0 = c o s t o f g a s o l i n e X l l = c o s t o f o i l change and l u b r i c a t i o n X 1 2 = p a r k i n g c o s t a t d e s t i n a t i o n X 1 3 = a v e r a g e c a r o c c u p a n c y . (3) E c o n o m i c S t a t u s o f T r i p M a k e r — t o t a k e a c c o u n t o f o n e ' s a b i l i t y t o p u r c h a s e and m a i n t a i n an a u t o m o b i l e . (4) R e l a t i v e T r a v e l S e r v i c e — i s a r a t i o o f e x c e s s t r a v e l t i m e , o r t i m e b e i n g s p e n t o u t s i d e t h e t r a n s i t v e h i c l e d u r i n g t h e t r i p t o t i m e s p e n t w a l k i n g . T r a v e l S e r v i c e R a t i o = X 2 + X 3 + X 4 + X 5 x ?+x 8 w h e r e : t h e X ' s have been p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d , F o r e a c h o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s d i v e r s i o n c u r v e s s h o w i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p be tween t h e t r a n s i t s h a r e o f t r i p s and v a l u e s o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s ( c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h t r a f f i c zone) d e m o n s t r a t e a d e c l i n i n g p r o p e n s i t y t o use t r a n s i t as above r a t i o s / / i n c r e a s e d , and as income i n c r e a s e d . I n a l l , 160 d i v e r s i o n c u r v e s were drawn f o r d i f f e r e n t . s t r a t i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e c o s t r a t i o , e c o n o m i c s t a t u s and t h e s e r v i c e r a t i o , and f o r d i f f e r e n t t r i p t y p e s . These c u r v e s e n a b l e t h e ea sy c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e p r o p e n s i t y t o t r a v e l u n d e r d i f f e r e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s o f t h e s e f a c t o r s . F o r i n s t a n c e , t r a n s i t . u s a g e i s more s e n s i t i v e t o p o o r s e r v i c e when income i s h i g h t h a n when income i s l o w . The r e l a t i o n s h i p s v i s u a l l y a p p a r e n t i n t h e d i v e r s i o n c u r v e a n a l y s i s a i d e d i n t h e . s e l e c t i o n o f t h e above i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , and t h e y ( d i v e r s i o n c u r v e s ) s e r v e t o c o r r o b o r a t e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n e s t i m a t i o n r e s u l t s . A s i m i l a r a n a l y s i s o f T o r o n t o and P h i l a d e l p h i a t r a n s i t use and " f a c t o r " measures showed s i m i l a r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and t h i s s t r e n g t h e n e d t h e r e l i a b i l i t y t h a t c o u l d be p l a c e d on t h e W a s h i n g t o n m o d e l . L i k e t h e mode l s d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , t h e moda l s p l i t mode l s a r e s u b j e c t t o c o n s i d e r a b l e g e n e r a l i z a t i o n t h r o u g h t h e use o f s u r r o g a t e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s and z o n a l a v e r a g e s . The m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e has s e r v e d t o s e l e c t t h o s e v a r i a b l e s w h i c h a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t and show s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s t o t r i p g e n e r a t i o and t o m o d a l s p l i t a t t h e l e v e l o f g e n e r a l i z a t i o n w h i c h i s amenable t o f o r e c a s t i n g . 170 FOOTNOTES ^"""^Lukermann, F r e d , 'and P o r t e r , P . W . , " G r a v i t y and P o t e n t i a l M o d e l s i n E c o n o m i c G e o g r a p h y " , AAAG, V o l . 5 0 , 19 6 0 , . . p p . 4 9 3 - 5 0 4 . (2) ' F o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e s o l u t i o n o f t h i s mode l s e e : J . R . M a c K a y , "The I n t e r - a c t a n c e H y p o t h e s i s and B o u n d a r i e s i n C a n a d a : A P r e l i m i n a r y ^ t u d y " , i n B e r r y and M a r b l e , S p a t i a l A n a l y s i s . P r e n t i c e - H a l l , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , 1 9 6 8 , p p . 122-129 (3) V o o r h e e s , A l a n M . , " A G e n e r a l T h e o r y o f T r a f f i c M o v e m e n t " , 1955 P r o c e e d i n g s , I n s t i t u t e o f T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r s , 1 9 5 5 , p p . 4 6 - 5 6 . (4) O v e r g a a r d y K. R a s k , T r a f f i c E s t i m a t i o n i n U r b a n  T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g , A c t a P o l y t e c h n i c a S c a n d i n a v i c a , C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g and B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n S e r i e s , N o . 3 7 , Copenhagen , 1966 , p p . 7 7 - 7 8 . (5) O v e r g a a r d , I b i d . , p . 7 9 . (6) O v e r g a a r d , I b i d . , p . 7 9 . (7) . . O l l s o n , G u n n a r , D i s t a n c e and Human I n t e r a c t i o n : A Rev iew and B i b l i o g r a p h y , B i b l i o g r a p h y S e r i e s Number Two, R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e , P h i l a d e l p h i a , 1 9 6 5 . ^ S e e C h a p t e r I I , P a r t I I o f t h i s t h e s i s . (9) . v ' U l l m a n , Edward L . , "The R o l e o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and t h e Bases f o r I n t e r a c t i o n " , M a n ' s R o l e i n C h a n g i n g t h e Face  o f t h e E a r t h , W . L . Thomas, e d . , C h i c a g o U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , C h i c a g o , 1956 , p p . 8 6 2 - 8 8 0 . ^"""^ L u k e r m a n n , and P o r t e r , o p . c i t . H a g g e t t , P e t e r , L o c a t i o n a l A n a l y s i s i n Human  G e o g r a p h y , Edward A r n o l d , L o n d o n , 1 9 6 5 , p . 4 6 . (12) O l l s o n , o p . c i t . , p . 64 . (13) v C l a r k , C . and P e t e r s , G . H . , "The I n t e r v e n i n g O p p o r t u n i t i e s Method o f T r a f f i c A n a l y s i s " , T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , J a n u a r y 1 9 6 5 , p . 64 . ^ 1 4 ^ S t a r k i e , D . M . N . , T r a f f i c and I n d u s t r y : A S t u d y o f  T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n and S p a t i a l I n t e r a c t i o n , G e o g r a p h i c a l P a p e r s #3, London S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s and P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , L o n d o n , 1967 . 171 (15) y / C h i c a g o A r e a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y , F i n a l R e p o r t , • V o l . 1 , 2 & 3 , C h i c a g o , 1 9 5 9 , ( V o l s . 1 & 2 ) , 1962 ( V o l . 3 ) . ^ ^ M a r t i n , B r i a n , F r e d M e n n o t t I I I , and A l e x J . B o n e , P r i n c i p l e s and T e c h n i q u e s f o r P r e d i c t i n g F u t u r e Demand f o r  U r b a n A r e a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , M . I . T . , C a m b r i d g e , 1 9 6 1 . ( 1 7 ) T , . , . I b i d . (18) R u i t e r , E a r l R . , " Improvements i n U n d e r s t a n d i n g , C a l i b r a t i n g a n d " A p p l y i n g t h e O p p o r t u n i t y M o d e l " , HRR #165, 1 9 6 7 , p p . 1 -21 . (19) v ' W h i t a k e r , R . W . , and W e s t , K . E . , "The I n t e r v e n i n g O p p o r t u n i t i e s M o d e l : A T h e o r e t i c a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n " , HRR #250, 1968 , p p . 1-7 . (20) n R u i t e r , o p . - c i t . ( 2 1 ) R e f e r t o C h a p t e r I I , P a r t I I . (22) L e i g h , R o g e r , The J o u r n e y t o Work t o C e n t r a l  L o n d o n , 1 9 2 1 - 1 9 5 1 : A G e o g r a p h i c a l A n a l y s i s , U n p u b l i s h e d PhD. D i s s e r t a t i o n , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , London S c h o o l o f E c o n o m i c s and P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e , L o n d o n , June 1 9 6 8 , p p . 184-185 (23) K i n g , L e s l i e J . , S t a t i s t i c a l A n a l y s i s i n G e o g r a p h y , ' P r e n t i c e H a l l , Eng lewood C l i f f s , 1 9 6 9 , p . 1 6 2 . (24) M i t c h e l l , R o b e r t R. and R a p k i n , C h e s t e r , U r b a n  T r a f f i c : A F u n c t i o n o f L a n d U s e , C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , New Y o r k , 1954 . ( 2 5 ) r i , , U l l m a n , o p . c i t . K O i , W a l t e r Y . , and S h u l d i n e r , P a u l W . , An A n a l y s i s  o f U r b a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Demands, T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C e n t r e , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , E v a n s t o n , 1962 . (27) Highway R e s e a r c h R e c o r d s and N a t i o n a l C o - o p e r a t i v e  Highway R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m R e p o r t s , NAS, NRC, W a s h i n g t o n . (28) v P e a t , M a r w i c k , L i v i n g s t o n and Company, P r o j e c t i o n  o f U r b a n P e r s o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Demand, p r e p a r e d f o r t h e U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f H o u s i n g and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t , M a r c h 1968 . D i s t r i b u t e d by t h e C l e a r i n g h o u s e f o r F e d e r a l S c i e n t i f i c and T e c h n i c a l I n f o r m a t i o n , U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f Commerce. 172 (29) v ' F e r t a l , M . J . , W e i n e r , E d w a r d , B a l e k , A r t h u r J . and S e v i n , A l i F . , " M o d a l S p l i t : D o c u m e n t a t i o n o f N i n e Methods f o r E s t i m a t i n g T r a n s i t U s a g e , U i S . D e p a r t m e n t o f Commerce, B u r e a u o f P u b l i c R o a d s , O f f i c e o f P l a n n i n g , W a s h i n g t o n , 1966 . ( 3 0 ) T W . , _ I b i d . , p . 3 . (31) ' K e e f e r , L o u i s E . , " C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f C a p t i v e and C h o i c e T r a n s i t T r i p s i n t h e P i t t s b u r g h M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a " , HRB B u l l e t i n # 3 4 7 , . 1 9 6 2 , p p . 2 4 - 3 3 . (32) F e r t a l e t a l , o p . c i t . , p . 1 8 . (33) . , ' I b i d . * 3 4 ^ H y m a n , G . M . and W i l s o n , A . G . , "The E f f e c t s o f Changes i n T r a v e l C o s t s on T r i p D i s t r i b u t i o n and M o d a l S p l i t " , H i g h Speed Ground T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , V o l . 3 , #1, J a n u a r y 1969 , p p . 7 9 - 8 5 . ( 3 5 ) F e r t a l , e t a l , o p . c i t , p p . 7 8 - 9 2 . 173 APPENDIX I I THE VANCOUVER URBAN CORE PROJECT TRANSIT SURVEY 1 ) S u r v e y P r o c e d u r e s : An o n - b o a r d o r i g i n d e s t i n a t i o n s u r v e y o f p a s s e n g e r s was c a r r i e d o u t d u r i n g one week i n May 1965 as p a r t o f t h e U . B . C . G e o g r a p h y — U r b a n C o r e P r o j e c t u n d e r t h e d i r e c t i o n o f D r . W a l t e r H a r d w i c k . The U r b a n C o r e P r o j e c t was s p o n s o r e d by t h e C a n a d i a n C o u n c i l on Urban and R e g i o n a l R e s e a r c h and t h e T r a n s i t S u r v e y was done w i t h t h e c o - o p e r a t i o n o f t h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n D i v i s i o n o f B . C . Hydro and Power A u t h o r i t y . Buses were b o a r d e d by s u r v e y p e r s o n n e l as t h e y l e f t o u t e r t e r m i n a l s . A s y s t e m a t i c sample o f one bus each h a l f h o u r was d o n e . As p a s s e n g e r s b o a r d e d t h e bus r i d d e n by t h e s u r v e y o r , t h e y were handed q u e s t i o n n a i r e c a r d s . These c a r d s were r e t u r n a d d r e s s e d and p o s t a g e p a i d , o r t h e y c o u l d be handed t o t h e s u r v e y o r a f t e r c o m p l e t i o n . A p p r o x i m a t e l y 6 ,000 c a r d s were c o l l e c t e d , some o n l y p a r t i a l l y c o m p l e t e d . The d a t a o b t a i n e d on t h e r e t u r n e d c a r d s was expanded by a f a c t o r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f t h e t o t a l number o f p e r s o n s r i d i n g each bus p a s s i n g a c o r d o n p o i n t d u r i n g e a c h h a l f h o u r s u r v e y p e r i o d . No c o n t r o l o f t h e sample was made, and c a r d r e t u r n s v a r y c o n s i d e r a b l y i n t e rms o f t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f bus p a s s e n g e r s r e p r e s e n t e d . I t i s p o s s i b l e , f o r i n s t a n c e , t o have a 174 s i t u a t i o n where only f i v e per cent of the passengers responded for each hal f hour time period, and the answers they gave were expanded twenty times to represent a l l passengers. V7ithin the research design there i s no way of determining whether these responding passengers represented the non-responding passenger i n terms of any of the answers to the questions. The questionable representativeness of the sample l i m i t s i t s use i n a discussion of indications of bus passenger t r a v e l patterns and associations as attempted i n t h i s t h e s i s . 2) The Data; The Urban Core Project T r a n s i t Survey obtained information on t r i p / o r i g i n , t r i p destination, time of t r i p , purpose of t r i p , sex of t r i p maker and bus route. Origins and destinations were coded to 95 T r a f f i c D i s t r i c t s covering the metropolitan area used for the Metropolitan Highway Planning Study series i n 1 9 5 9 . ^ S i x t y - f i v e of these zones were i n the C i t y of Vancouver. In view of subsequent s t a t i s t i c a l analysis of the bus passenger data i n Chapter IV, t h i s data was aggregated to the 6 5 t r a f f i c zones used for (2) the Vancouver Transportation Study. (Figure 7) These a r b i t r a r i l y defined data c o l l e c t i o n units place further l i m i t a t i o n on the s u i t a b i l i t y of the data for t r a v e l pattern analysis. Small (1/4 mile) g r i d squares would have provided much greater f l e x i b i l i t y by allowing for construction of f u n c t i o n a l l y relevant data c o l l e c t i o n areas. Six t r i p TABLE 14 175 BUS PASSENGER TRIP DISTRIBUTION TO CQRE ZONES . : - ! " FOR A L L TRIP PURPOSES AND BY SEX a) TRIP TYPES , CORE ZONE T R I P • T Y P E ' 03 0506 07 08 09 10 11-12 13-14 ROW TOTALS Home 272 325 304 77 224 - 54 276 1,532 H o r i z o n t a l P e r c e n t (18) (21) (20) (5) (15) - (4) (18) Work 1,406 4 ,958 3 ,826 332 636 216 707 2 ,849 14 ,932 (9) (33) (26) (2) (4) (1) (5) (19) B u s i n e s s 435 87 8 946 107 175 - 97 448 3 ,086 (14) (28) (31) (3) (6) - (3) (15) S h o p p i n g 154 1 ,723 2 ,775 26 72 - 82 2 ,827 7 ,659 (2) (22) (36) - (1) - . (1) (37) S o c i a l R e c r e a t i o n 30 173 296 59 21 - 31 52 661 (5) (26) -I (45) (9) (3) - (5) (8) O t h e r 154 311 656 23 28 - 134 144 1,450 (ID (21) (45) (2) (2) - (9) (10) b) SEX ROV7 TOTALS M a l e 742 2 , 5 9 1 2 , 3 8 1 359 663 65 616 2 ,145 9 ,562 H o r i z o n t a l P e r c e n t (8) (27) (25) (4) (7) (1) (6) (22) Female 1 ,719 5 , 6 2 3 6 ,259 240 530 152 486 4 ,552 1 9 , 5 6 1 (9) (29) (32) (1) (3) (1) (2) (23) TOTAL 2 , 4 6 1 8 ,214 8 ,640 599 L,193 217 1 ,102 6 ,697 2 9 , 1 2 3 8 28 30 2 4 1 4 23 176 purposes were pre-coded for the survey: home, work, shopping, business, s o c i a l - r e c r e a t i o n , and.other. Only shopping and work t r i p s are examined i n t h i s t h e s i s . A percentage breakdown of the data i s provided i n Table 14 to give an in d i c a t i o n of general c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t r a n s i t t r a v e l to the urban core of Greater Vancouver. FOOTNOTES ^ T e c h n i c a l Committee for Metropolitan Highway Planning, A Study on Highway Planning Part I I , Vancouver, 1959. (2) • . • City of Vancouver Planning Department, Metropolitan Vancouver 1955, 1965 and 1985: Selected Data From the Vancouver Transportation Study, Vancouver, 1967. 177 APPENDIX I I I r • 1 ' • DATA COLLECTION UNITS IN URBAN TRANSPORTATION STUDIES— ' . ^ SOME COMMENTS The f u n c t i o n a l a p p r o a c h t o u r b a n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n a l y s i s has been d e v e l o p e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h use o f r e g r e s s i o n and s i m i l a r t e c h n i q u e s . I n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s have been u sed t o p r e d i c t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n and a t t r a c t i o n r a t e s o f s e l e c t e d a r i e a s o r t r a f f i c z o n e s . These t r a f f i c zones have been u sed i n a l l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s r e g a r d l e s s o f w h i c h mode l i s employed f o r f o r e c a s t i n g u r b a n t r a v e l • p a t t e r n s . B u t , g i v e n i t s f o c u s on t h e f u n c t i o n a l d e s c r i p t i o n o f u r b a n t r a v e l p a t t e r n s , t h e r e g r e s s i o n mode l s r e q u i r e a more a c c u r a t e d e l i n e a t i o n o f f u n c t i o n a l l y r e l e v a n t a r e a s t h a n t h e l e s s d e t a i l e d g r a v i t y and o p p o r t u n i t y m o d e l s . T r a f f i c zones o r t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s a r e t h e a r e a s f o r w h i c h d a t a on t r a v e l v o l u m e s and s e l e c t e d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e s u m m a r i z e d . E a c h o f t h e s e zones a r e g i v e n a c e n t r o i d number t o w h i c h a l l d a t a and i n f o r m a t i o n a r e a s s i g n e d f o r c o m p u t a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s . The s e l e c t i o n o f c r i t e r i a f o r t h e s e zones depends on many f a c t o r s . The s i z e o f t h e zone i s g e n e r a l l y g o v e r n e d by d e n s i t y o f p o p u l a t i o n , w i t h zones b e i n g p r o g r e s s i v e l y l a r g e r w i t h i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e C . B . D . T r a f f i c zone s e l e c t i o n p r a c t i c e s recommended by t h e I n s t i t u t e o f T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r s s u g g e s t t h e d i v i s i o n o f a m e t r o p o l i t a n 178 area into major sectors; "one sector includes the downtown area, and others are generally wedge-shaped with the point of the wedge touching or c l o s e l y approaching sector zero". Sectors are then subdivided into r e l a t i v e l y square zones. Sector boundaries are determined by features which w i l l prevent the flow of t r a f f i c , and more or less create t r a f f i c sheds. No other c r i t e r i a are given for the s e l e c t i o n of t r a f f i c zone boundaries by the I n s t i t u t e ; however, from the observations of the-'author, i t seems that consideration i s also usually given to laying out zones which straddle major t r a f f i c routes. By pre-selecting t r a f f i c zones on the less than exacting basis outlined above, there i s considerable danger i n clouding functional r e l a t i o n s h i p s , or even a r r i v i n g at spurious correlations when using regression techniques. T r a f f i c zone data on the independent variables and t r i p volumes may be subject to over-generalization. This of course w i l l depend to a c e r t a i n extent on the nature of the area with any given t r a f f i c zone, and on the l e v e l of s t r a t i f i c a t i o n of e i t h e r t r i p purposes or independent variable measures. A f i n e r breakdown of t r i p s and of a c t i v i t i e s would l o g i c a l l y e n t a i l a s i m i l a r focussing on point or c l u s t e r locations of s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t y groups, rather than a r b i t r a r i l y defined t r a f f i c zone areas. However, even i f the analysis does not involve an in-depth examination~of a c t i v i t y i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , 1 7 9 the process for s e l e c t i n g boundaries for t r a f f i c zones practised by t r a f f i c engineers i s s t i l l open to question. If the intent i s to arrive at f u n c t i o n a l l y meaningful estimating equations, then i t would be desirable that a t o t a l land use analysis of the urban area be done, and that a l l information be assigned to "objective" and s p a t i a l l y consistent data c o l l e c t i o n units. For example, the use of quarter mile square g r i d blocks, or q u a r t i l e s , as found i n (2) the Chxcago Area Transportation Study. A l l data can then be e a s i l y assigned to whichever f u n c t i o n a l l y relevant areas are required for analysis and p r e d i c t i o n . An example of both the shortcomings of the use of large a r b i t r a r i l y defined t r a f f i c zones as well as the problems associated with data aggregated to the l e v e l of t r a f f i c zones are the findings of McCarthy i n a recent journal (3) a r t i c l e . ' McCarthy pointed out that from a transportation planning point of view, the basic reason for aggregating o r i g i n - d e s t i n a t i o n survey data i n t r i p generation methodology i s that 1 . . . enough behaviour must be aggregated to have s t a t i s t i c a l l y stable data and to discern consistent group (4) t r a v e l behaviour patterns. He questioned the v a l i d i t y of t h i s procedure and hypothesized that "the use of zonally aggregated household data r e s u l t s i n inaccurate p r e d i c t i v e (5) t r i p generation equations". I t was found that zone sampling d i s t r i b u t i o n s were skewed rather than normal and ' 180 t h u s t h e use o f z o n a l means were n o t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f a g g r e g a t e b e h a v i o u r , and t h a t i n . s o m e i n s t a n c e s zones c o n s i d e r e d t o have homogeneous c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were h e t e r o -geneous w i t h s e v e r a l mode l g r o u p s w h i c h c o u l d n o t be r e p r e s e n t e d by mean o r med ian v a l u e s . Z o n a l a g g r e g a t e s t h e r e f o r e c o u l d h o t r e s u l t i n a c c u r a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t r a v e l b e h a v i o u r i f r e l a t i o n s h i p s u sed f o r p r e d i c t i o n s were b a s e d on h e t e r o g e n e o u s d a t a . The a u t h o r c o n c l u d e d t h a t " m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n - a n a l y s i s s h o u l d p r e c e d e a g g r e g a t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d d a t a r a t h e r t h a n t h e a g g r e g a t i o n o f d a t a (6) p r e c e d i n g m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . FOOTNOTES -^ I n s t i t u t e o f T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r s , M a n u a l o f T r a f f i c  E n g i n e e r i n g S t u d i e s , 3 r d E d i t i o n , W a s h i n g t o n , 1964 . (2) C h i c a g o A r e a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d y , F i n a l R e p o r t , V o l . 1 , 2 & 3 , C h i c a g o , 1 9 5 9 , ( V o l s . 1 & 2 ) , 1962 ( V o l . 3 ) . (3) v M c C a r t h y , G . M . , " M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s o f H o u s e h o l d T r i p G e n e r a t i o n — A C r i t i q u e " , HRR #297, Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 9 , p . 35 . ( 4 ) I b i d . , p . 3 5 . ( 5 ) I b i d . , p . 4 2 . ( 6 ) I b i d . , p . 4 2 . 

Cite

Citation Scheme:

        

Citations by CSL (citeproc-js)

Usage Statistics

Share

Embed

Customize your widget with the following options, then copy and paste the code below into the HTML of your page to embed this item in your website.
                        
                            <div id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidgetDisplay">
                            <script id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidget"
                            src="{[{embed.src}]}"
                            data-item="{[{embed.item}]}"
                            data-collection="{[{embed.collection}]}"
                            data-metadata="{[{embed.showMetadata}]}"
                            data-width="{[{embed.width}]}"
                            async >
                            </script>
                            </div>
                        
                    
IIIF logo Our image viewer uses the IIIF 2.0 standard. To load this item in other compatible viewers, use this url:
http://iiif.library.ubc.ca/presentation/dsp.831.1-0102248/manifest

Comment

Related Items