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Outdoor recreation on Galiano Island : factors which influence participation. MacDonald, Dougald George 1970

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OUTDOOR RECREATION ON GALIANO ISLAND: FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE PARTICIPATION by DOUGALD GEORGE MacDONALD B.Sc. U n i v e r s i t y of Western Ontario, 1965 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n the School of Community and Regional Planning We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1970 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree tha permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Dougald George MacDonald Department of School of Community and Regional Planning The University of British Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada 20, 1970 i Abstract The purpose of t h i s thesis i s to examine the factors which explain the patterns of outdoor recreation that a given population pursues on a given land surface. Patterns of use were understood as (1) the types of a c t i v i t i e s the population pursued and the frequency with which they pursued them, and (2) the d i s t r i b u t i o n of these a c t i v i t i e s over a d i f f e r e n t i a t e d land surface. Emphasis was placed on designing a methodological framework within which the explanatory value of postulated sets of factors can be examined. The data used to i l l u s t r a t e the methodology was taken from a study of the outdoor r e c r e a t i o n a l use of Galiano Island done by The Un i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia School of Community and Regional Planning during the summer of 1969. (1) I made the operational assumption that the observed v a r i a t i o n i n the types and frequency of outdoor recreation a c t i v i t i e s pursued by groups of v i s i t o r s to Galiano Island could be explained by differences i n the " i n t e r n a l " c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the groups. Internal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were defined as a l l factors contributed by the r e c r e a t i o n i s t s themselves such as age, sex^ experience, etc., which could influence the way they respond to the landscape. In e f f e c t , i n t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s represent the t r a n s l a t i v e mental processes that mediate between the s t i m u l i i the r e c r e a t i o n i s t receives from the landscape and h i s perceived use of i t . I hypothesized that v a r i a t i o n s i n the frequency and types of outdoor re c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i i w h i c h v i s i t o r s t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d p u r s u e d c o u l d b e e x p l a i n e d b y a s e l e c t e d s e t o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e v i s i t o r g r o u p . T h e h y p o t h e s i s was t e s t e d b y c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a -t i o n a n a l y s i s . T h e r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d w e r e n o t s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0 . 0 5 l e v e l o f p r o b a b i l i t y . I a r g u e d t h a t t h e n e g a t i v e r e s u l t s w e r e a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e d a t a a n d t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i s , i n a c o n c e p t u a l s e n s e , w a s n o t i n c o r r e c t . ( 2 ) T h e s e c o n d a s s u m p t i o n made w a s t h a t t h e a r e a l v a r i a t i o n i n t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e , g e n e r a l l y a n d f o r s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s , c o u l d b e e x p l a i n e d b y v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e l a n d s c a p e i t s e l f . I h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e number o f v i s i t s ( i r r e s p e c t i v e o f a c t i v i t y ) t h a t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d c o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m m e a s u r e s o f t h e a c c e s s i b i l i t y , d e v e l o p m e n t , a n d p r o x i m i t y t o t h e s h o r e l i n e o f t h e l o t . F o l l o w i n g t h i s , I h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s f o r e a c h o f t h r e e s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s ( g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h , c a m p i n g , h i k i n g ) c o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m t h e same s e t o f m e a s u r e m e n t s . T h e s e h y p o t h e s e s w e r e t e s t e d b y m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . Two o f t h e f o u r a n a l y s e s p r o d u c e d e q u a t i o n s w h i c h w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0 . 0 0 1 l e v e l o f p r o b a b i l i t y . T h e f i r s t s h o w e d t h a t t h e c o m b i n e d t o t a l o f v i s i t s f o r a l l a c t i v i t i e s c o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m m e a s u r e m e n t s o f t h e a c c e s s i -b i l i t y , d e v e l o p m e n t , a n d p r o x i m i t y t o t h e s h o r e l i n e o f t h e l o t a r e a . T h e s e c o n d s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p showed t h a t v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h c o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m t h e same s e t o f m e a s u r e m e n t s . B o t h e q u a t i o n s , a l t h o u g h s i g n i f i c a n t , i i i h a d q u e s t i o n a b l e e x p l a n a t o r y v a l u e o w i n g t o t h e n a t u r e o f t h e d a t a . T h e s a m p l e s i z e was t o o s m a l l t o p e r m i t a d e q u a t e t e s t i n g o f t h e h y p o t h e s e s . T h e r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e a n d t h e d i r e c t i o n p o i n t e d t o b y t h e r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d i n t h i s s t u d y s u p p o r t t h e c o n c e p t u a l f r a m e w o r k w h i c h I h a v e p r e s e n t e d . H o w e v e r , t h e d a t a u s e d w e r e l a r g e l y i n -a d e q u a t e t o t e s t t h e c o n c e p t u a l b a s i s o f t h e m e t h o d o l o g i e s p r o p o s e d . I h a v e ' s u g g e s t e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y w h e r e i m p r o v e m e n t s f o r t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f d a t a c a n b e m a d e . A c k n o w l e d g m e n t I w i s h t o t h a n k D r . H . P . O b e r l a n d e r f o r t h e s u p e r v i s i o n h e o f f e r e d i n d a t a c o l l e c t i o n d u r i n g t h e summer o f 1 9 6 9 a n d f o r t h e p e r m i s s i o n h e g r a n t e d me t o u s e t h i s d a t a i n my t h e s i s . F o r h e r p a t i e n c e a n d h e l p i n t h e c o n c e p t u a l f o r m u l a -t i o n o f t h i s s t u d y , I s h o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k D r . N i r m a l a d e v i C h e r u k u p a l l e , my s u p e r v i s o r . TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK . . 1 II GALIANO ISLAND: THE CASE STUDY 13 2.1 Geography and Access 13 2.2 Climate, Landform, Biota 14 2.3 Land Use and Development 18 2.4 The Case Study: Methods 20 II I OUTDOOR RECREATION: FACTORS INFLUENCING PARTICIPATION 24 3.1 P a r t i c i p a t i o n : Some General Considerations . 24 3.2 P a r t i c i p a t i o n : Recent L i t e r a t u r e . . . . . . 25 3.3 Factors Which A f f e c t the P a r t i c i p a t i o n Rates of V i s i t o r s to Galiano Island 33 3.4 Canonical C o r r e l a t i o n Analysis; 41 3.5 Discussion of the Results . . . . . 42 IV OUTDOOR RECREATION: FACTORS WHICH AFFECT THE AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF USERS 47 4.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4.2 Recent L i t e r a t u r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4.3 Factors Which Influence the Areal D i s t r i b u -t i o n of V i s i t o r s to Galiano Island . . . . . 54 4.4 Regression Analysis . . . . . . 62 4.5 Discussion of the Results . . . . . . . . . . 80 CHAPTER PAGE V SUMMARY: DIRECTIONS FOR RESEARCH 85 5.1 Summary . . . . . 85 5.2 Direc t i o n s f o r Research 87 SELECTED LIST OF REFERENCES 96 APPENDIX I D e f i n i t i o n s . 101 II Questionnaire 103 LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I Questionnaire D i s t r i b u t i o n Schedule 22 II Values Assigned to Variable 6 According to Income Category . . 40 I I I Canonical C o r r e l a t i o n A n a l y s i s : Significance Tests for 6 Linear Combinations of Predictor and Dependent Variables 43 IV C o r r e l a t i o n Matrix: Variables used i n the Regression Analysis of V i s i t s (Dependent Variable) 65 V M u l t i p l e Regression Analysis Results for a l l V i s i t s (Dependent Variable) . 69 VI C o r r e l a t i o n Matrix: Variables used i n the Regression Analysis of V i s i t s to the Beach (Dependent Variable) 72 VII M u l t i p l e Regression Analysis Results for V i s i t s to the Beach (Dependent Variable) 74 VIII C o r r e l a t i o n Matrix: Variables used i n the Regression Analysis of V i s i t s f o r Camping (Dependent Variable) 76 IX M u l t i p l e Regression Analysis Results f o r V i s i t s f o r Camping (Dependent Variable) 77 X C o r r e l a t i o n Matrix: Variables used i n the Regression Analysis of V i s i t s f o r Hiking (Dependent Variable) 78 XI M u l t i p l e Regression Analysis Results for V i s i t s f o r Hiking (Dependent V a r i a b l e ) . 79 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1 Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n of Group Size 35 2 Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n of Children l e s s than 1 Year Old . . . • 35 3 Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n of Children 2-5 Years Old . . 36 4 Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n of Children 8-10 Years Old . . 36 5 Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n of Age Groups 37 6 Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n of Income Categories 37 7 Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n of A c t i v i t i e s Pursued by V i s i t o r Groups . 38 LIST OF MAPS MAP PAGE 1 Present Land Use . 18 2 Combined To t a l of V i s i t s f o r a l l A c t i v i t i e s . . . . . 56 3 V i s i t s f o r Going to the Beach 57 4 V i s i t s for Camping 58 5 V i s i t s f o r Hiking . . . . . . . . 59 6 Residuals for Regression of a l l V i s i t s 81 7 Residuals for Regression of V i s i t s to the Beach . . . 82 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY : A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK T h e o b j e c t i v e o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t o p r o v i d e a m e t h o d o l o g y f o r a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h i n f l u e n c e t h e p a t t e r n s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e o n t h e G u l f I s l a n d s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . S p e c i f i c a l l y , I h a v e e x a m i n e d t h e p a t t e r n s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e o f G a l i a n o I s l a n d . T h e m a t e r i a l c o l l e c t e d i n t h e c a s e s t u d y was u s e d o n l y t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e m e t h o d s I h a v e p r o p o s e d a n d t o d e f i n e t h e r e s e a r c h n e c e s s a r y t o s a t i s f y t h e s e m e t h o d s . O u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n v o l v e s a n i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n p e o p l e a n d t h e e n v i r o n m e n t . I h a v e d e f i n e d o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a s l e i s u r e - t i m e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h a r e v o l u n t a r i l y p u r s u e d o n a r e a s o f t h e e a r t h ' s s u r f a c e t h a t h a v e n o t b e e n a p p r e c i a b l y a l t e r e d b y human a c t i v i t y . I h a v e t e r m e d t h e s e " n a t u r a l a r e a s " . M o r e a n d m o r e s p a c e i s n e e d e d f o r m a n ' s a c t i v i t i e s . N e a r l y o n e m i l l i o n a c r e s o f l a n d i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a l o n e a r e p a v e d o r o t h e r w i s e d e n u d e d o f v e g e t a t i o n e a c h y e a r . I r r e v e r s i b l e damage t o t h e q u a l i t y a n d p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y o f b i o t i c c o m m u n i t i e s h a s b e e n d o n e , m o r e damage i s i n p r o g r e s s a n d , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , m o r e seems l i k e l y . L a n d a r e a s w h i c h r e m a i n i n t h e i r n a t u r a l s t a t e a r e b e i n g t h r e a t e n e d b y " p r o g r e s s " . Y e t p r e s e r v a t i o n a n d c o n s e r v a t i o n i s n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e c o n t i n u i n g w e l f a r e o f m a n . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e p r e s e r v a t i o n i s t s t o o i n f r e q u e n t l y h a v e a s t r o n g " e c o n o m i c " c a s e t o p r e s e n t . I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o m a t c h d o l l a r e s t i m a t e s o f l a n d v a l u e u n d e r i n d u s t r i a l o r c o m m e r c i a l u s e w i t h w e a k l y 2 d e f i n e d c o n c e p t s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l b e n e f i t s a n d y e t e m e r g e t h e w i n n e r . We h a v e n o w a y o f q u a n t i f y i n g t h e s o c i a l v a l u e o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n d o l l a r t e r m s . I t i s e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u l t t o a r r i v e a t a n o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f a p o p u l a t i o n . Do p e o p l e " n e e d " t o e n g a g e i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n ? C a n t h e s a t i s f a c t i o n o f t h e s e n e e d s b e m e a s u r e d i n t e r m s o f a r e d u c t i o n o f c r i m e r a t e s o r a d e c r e a s e d i n c i d e n c e o f m e n t a l a n d p h y s i c a l i l l n e s s ? U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e s e q u e s t i o n s r e m a i n l a r g e l y u n a n s w e r e d . B u t we c a n i n f e r f r o m t h e b e h a v i o r o f p e o p l e , b o t h p a s t a n d p r e s e n t , t h a t o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i s a n i m p o r t a n t s o c i a l i n s t i -t u t i o n . I n t h e a b s e n c e o f a b e t t e r i n d e x , a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e way p o p u l a t i o n s u s e o u t d o o r e n v i r o n m e n t s may p r o v i d e i n s i g h t i n t o t h e i r r e q u i r e m e n t s . P a t t e r n s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e i n v a r i o u s s e t t i n g s h a v e o f t e n b e e n d o c u m e n t e d b u t o n l y i n f r e q u e n t l y e x p l a i n e d . T h e p r o b l e m i s t o e x p l a i n why o b s e r v e d p a t t e r n s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e o c c u r . I f we u n d e r s t o o d t h e c a u s a l p a r a m e t e r s w h i c h u n d e r l i e r e c r e a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r p a t t e r n s i t w o u l d b e p o s s i b l e t o s a t i s f y t h e c u r r e n t n e e d s o f r e c r e a t i o n -i s t s a s w e l l a s h a v i n g a r a t i o n a l b a s i s f o r p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e r e q u i r e m e n t s . A s s t a t e d e a r l i e r , o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i n v o l v e s t h e i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n p e o p l e a n d t h e e n v i r o n m e n t . G i v e n t h e same o u t d o o r e n v i r o n m e n t , n o t a l l p e o p l e b e h a v e i n t h e same way t o w a r d s i t . I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e same e n v i r o n m e n t c a n h a v e d i f f e r e n t m e a n i n g s f o r d i f f e r e n t g r o u p s o f p e o p l e . T h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s i n m e a n i n g c a n b e r e s o l v e d i n t o two c a t e g o r i e s , u t i l i t y a n d q u a l i t y . E n v i r o n m e n t s w h i c h h a v e u t i l i t y d i f f e r e n c e s a r e 3 s e e n a s d i f f e r i n g i n f u n c t i o n ; e n v i r o n m e n t s w i t h q u a l i t y d i f f e r e n c e s a r e s e e n a s h a v i n g t h e same f u n c t i o n b u t h a v e d i f f e r e n t i a l v a l u e s f o r t h i s f u n c t i o n . T h e p o i n t i s , why a r e t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s o b s e r v e d ? O u r s e n s e e x p e r i e n c e s a r e n o t s i m p l y r e l a t e d t o t h e p h y s i c a l c o n t e x t o f t h e s t i m u l i we r e c e i v e . A p a t t e r n o f a s s u m p t i o n s , n e e d s a n d e x p e c t a t i o n s m e d i a t e s b e t w e e n s t i m u l u s a n d p e r c e p t u a l e x p e r i e n c e . T h e p e r c e p t u a l e x p e r i e n c e i s i n d i v i d u a l ; i t i n v o l v e s o u r v a l u e s , n e e d s , p u r p o s e s , a n d e x p e r i e n c e s a s much a s i t i n v o l v e s t h e s t i m u l i r e c e i v e d f r o m t h e l a n d s c a p e . We c a n a s s u m e t h a t t h i s i n t e r m e d i a r y p r o c e s s , t h e p r o c e s s o f t r a n s l a t i n g v i s u a l s t i m u l i i n t o a p e r c e p t u a l e x p e r i e n c e , i s c u l t u r a l l y d e t e r m i n e d w i t h i n a b r o a d c o n t e x t . E v e r y c u l t u r e h a s a s e t o f m u t u a l l y r e c o g n i z e d c u e s a n d e x p e c t a n c i e s ; w i t h i n e v e r y c u l t u r e f i n e r d i v i s i o n s e x i s t . T h e r e a r e s o c i a l , p s y c h o l o g i c a l , f i n a n c i a l , g e o g r a p h i c a n d p h y s i o l o g i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s w h i c h i n f l u e n c e p a t t e r n s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e . R e c r e a t i o n i s t s c a n b e d i v i d e d i n t o s u b p o p u l a t i o n s , e a c h c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y u n i q u e i n t e r e s t p r o f i l e s . A t a n y g i v e n t i m e , t h e t r a n s l a t i v e m e n t a l p r o c e s s e s o f s u b p o p u l a -t i o n s m a y b e c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s . ' ' " T h e a s s u m p t i o n made i s t h a t s u c h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c o n d i t i o n t h e r e s p o n s e o f a n i n d i v i d u a l t o t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a n d t h e r e f o r e a r e c a u s e s o f t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h a t i n d i v i d u a l i n t h e e n v i r o n m e n t . On t h e b a s i s o f O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n R e s o u r c e s R e v i e w C o m m i s s i o n , P a r t i c i p a t i o n  i n O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n : F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g Demand Among A m e r i c a n A d u l t s , ( W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . : U . S . G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1 9 6 2 ) . 4 t h i s a s s u m p t i o n , I h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e k i n d a n d f r e q u e n c y o f r e c r e a t i o n -a l a c t i v i t i e s t h a t v i s i t o r s t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d p u r s u e d c o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m a s e l e c t e d s e t o f t h e i r s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s . B y u s i n g c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s , I t r i e d t o e s t a b l i s h a r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s e t s o f r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s a n d s e t s o f s o c i o -e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . T h e h y p o t h e s i s ( H y p o t h e s i s I ) a n d t h e a n a l y s i s d e s i g n e d t o t e s t i t a r e d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r I I I . H y p o t h e s i s I w a s f o r m u l a t e d t o show how t h e i n t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s o f t h e o b s e r v e r a f f e c t h i s u s e o f t h e l a n d s c a p e . I n t e r n a l f a c t o r s i n c l u d e a l l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l w h i c h d e t e r m i n e t h e t y p e s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n h e w i l l p u r s u e o n a g i v e n l a n d s u r f a c e . T h e i n t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l m e d i a t e b e t w e e n t h e s t i m u l i r e c e i v e d d i r e c t l y f r o m t h e l a n d s c a p e a n d t h e f i n a l i m a g e o f t h a t l a n d -s c a p e u p o n w h i c h t h e i n d i v i d u a l a c t s . I do n o t p r e t e n d t o h a v e made a n e x h a u s t i v e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . N o r c o u l d I i m p u t e t h a t t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h I h a v e c h o s e n a r e c a u s a l o f r e c r e a t i o n a l b e -h a v i o r p a t t e r n s , w e r e I a b l e t o c o n f i r m H y p o t h e s i s I . T h e c a u s e s w h i c h u n d e r l i e r e c r e a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r p a t t e r n s a r e a c o m p l e x a m a l g a m o f many i n t e r n a l f a c t o r s w h i c h i s b e s t d e s c r i b e d b y s u c h i n o p e r a t i v e p h r a s e s a s " v a l u e s y s t e m " . A t b e s t , I may c o n f i r m t h a t t h e s e t o f m e a s u r e m e n t s w h i c h I h a v e c h o s e n a r e a n " i n d e x " o f t h e v a l u e s y s t e m o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n -i s t i n t h a t t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t c a n b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m t h e m . T h e h y p o t h e s i s w a s d e s i g n e d t o a n s w e r t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n , " G i v e n a p a r t i c u l a r l a n d a r e a , i s i t p o s s i b l e t o p r e d i c t t h e k i n d a n d f r e q u e n c y o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s t h a t p o p u l a t i o n s w o u l d p u r s u e i f t h e y v i s i t e d t h a t l a n d a r e a ? " 5 T h e p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h i s t r e a t e d i n t h e c a s e s t u d y c o n s i s t e d o f a n u m b e r o f p e o p l e m e a s u r a b l y d i f f e r e n t o n v a r i o u s s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . A l l v i s i t e d t h e same s m a l l i s l a n d a n d p u r s u e d v a r i o u s o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s o n t h e l a n d s u r f a c e o f t h a t i s l a n d . I n s i m p l e t e r m s , I h a v e e x a m i n e d why p a t t e r n s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s v a r i e d ; a n d w h e t h e r t h e o b s e r v e d v a r i a n c e c o u l d b e e x p l a i n e d b y d i f f e r e n c e s i n s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s . I h a v e m e a s u r e d how d i f f e r e n t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s r e s p o n d t o t h e same l a n d s c a p e . T h i s i s a m e a s u r e m e n t o f t h e way i n w h i c h d i f f e r e n t g r o u p s o f p e o p l e s a t i s f y t h e i r r e c r e a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s o n t h e same l a n d s u r f a c e , w h e r e s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e a n " i n d e x " o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n r e c r e a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s . T h e way i n w h i c h r e c r e a t i o n i s t s f u l f i l t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e i t s e l f . F o r i n s t a n c e t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t who p r e f e r s m o u n t a i n c l i m b i n g t o h i k i n g may b e l i m i t e d t o h i s s e c o n d p r e f e r -e n c e b y t h e g e n t l e t o p o g r a p h y o f t h e a r e a h e v i s i t s . T h u s t h e r e c r e a t i o n -a l b e h a v i o r e x h i b i t e d b y v i s i t o r s t o a n a r e a i s s p e c i f i c t o t h a t a r e a . P u t i n a n o t h e r a r e a , t h e same p o p u l a t i o n c o u l d e a s i l y e x h i b i t d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n s o f b e h a v i o r . E a c h n a t u r a l a r e a e x h i b i t s a r a n g e o f l a n d s c a p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w h i c h d e t e r m i n e t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e s f o r w h i c h i t i s s u i t e d . W i t h i n a n a t u r a l a r e a , t h e s p e c i f i c v a l u e s t h a t m e a s u r a b l e e l e m e n t s i n t h e l a n d s c a p e a s s u m e d e t e r m i n e t h e u t i l i t y a n d q u a l i t y o f t h a t s e c t o r o f t h e l a n d s c a p e f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e . T h i s i s c o n f i r m e d b y t h e 6 o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s do n o t v i s i t t h e same a r e a s f o r t h e same p u r p o s e s , a n d t h a t some a r e a s a r e v i s i t e d m o r e f r e q u e n t l y t h a n o t h e r s . T h e s e c o n d s e t o f f a c t o r s w h i c h I h a v e c o n s i d e r e d a r e t h e a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e l a n d a r e a t o w h i c h a p o p u l a t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s d o e s r e s p o n d b y p u r s u i n g s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s i n s p e c i f i c a r e a s . I f t h e s e c a n b e s u c c e s s f u l l y d e f i n e d , i t s h o u l d b e p o s s i b l e t o make a n i n v e n t o r y o f t h e a t t r i b u t e s o f a l a n d a r e a w h i c h a r e h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h u s e r p e r c e p t i o n a n d f r o m t h e i n f o r m a t i o n g a i n e d f r o m t h e c o n f i r m a -t i o n o f t h e f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s , p r e d i c t t h e p a t t e r n s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e t h a t v a r i o u s p o p u l a t i o n s w o u l d e x h i b i t o n t h a t l a n d a r e a . H o w e v e r , t h i s .method o f p r e d i c t i o n c o u l d o n l y b e a p p l i e d t o l a n d a r e a s w h i c h c o n t a i n e d t h e same g e n e r a l r a n g e o f a t t r i b u t e s . T h e s o l u t i o n o f t h e f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s o n l y p r o v i d e s a n a n s w e r t o t h e way i n w h i c h a g i v e n p o p u l a t i o n r e s p o n d s t o a g i v e n e n v i r o n m e n t . T h e same p o p u l a t i o n c o u l d r e s p o n d i n a n e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t f a s h i o n t o a d i f f e r e n t e n v i r o n m e n t a n d v i c e v e r s a . H o w e v e r , o n e c a n a s s u m e t h a t p o p u l a t i o n s w i t h s i m i l a r s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t a k e n f r o m t h e same g e n e r a l a r e a w o u l d r e a c t i n a p r e d i c t a b l e f a s h i o n i f c o n f r o n t e d w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t s o f t h e same n a t u r e . I w o u l d s u g g e s t t h a t t h i s c o n d i t i o n a p p l i e s t o t h e s o u t h e r n g r o u p o f G u l f I s l a n d s . I h a v e l i m i t e d my d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e w h i c h a f f e c t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s t o t h e m o s t g e n e r a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . I h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e number o f t i m e s r e c r e a t i o n i s t s v i s i t e d a n y s u r v e y e d l o t a r e a c a n b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m t h e a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f ' 7 t h e l o t , t h e e x t e n t o f d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e l o t , a n d t h e p r o x i m i t y o f a r e a s w i t h i n t h a t l o t t o t h e s h o r e l i n e ( H y p o t h e s i s I I ) . By u s i n g r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , I e x p l o r e d t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h i s h y p o t h e s i s f o r a l l r e p o r t e d v i s i t s , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f a c t i v i t y , a n d t h e n f o r a l l r e p o r t e d v i s i t s f o r e a c h o f t h r e e s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s . T h e r e s u l t s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n C h a p t e r I V . H a v i n g s t a t e d t h e s p e c i f i c n a t u r e o f t h e p r o b l e m w h i c h I h a v e e x a m i n e d , I w i s h now t o p l a c e t h e s t u d y I h a v e d i s c u s s e d i n t o t h e b r o a d e r c o n t e x t o f t h e p r o b l e m s f a c e d b y a g e n c i e s w h i c h a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f l a n d f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . T h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r p r o v i d i n g m o s t o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n N o r t h A m e r i c a h a s b e e n a s s u m e d b y t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r . T h e p r o b l e m c a n b e s i m p l i f i e d i n t o t h r e e c o m p o n e n t s : u s e r s , f a c i l i t i e s , a n d r e s o u r c e s . T h e u s e r s a r e t h e p e o p l e who e n g a g e i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s ; t h e r e s o u r c e s i n c l u d e a l l a s p e c t s o f t h e l a n d s c a p e , b o t h n a t u r a l a n d m a n - m a d e , w h i c h a r e s u i t e d f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e ; a n d t h e f a c i l i t i e s a r e t h e l a n d a r e a s , i n c l u d i n g d e v e l o p m e n t , w h i c h h a v e b e e n a l l o c a t e d f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e . T h e t a s k i s t o l o c a t e f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n t h e r e s o u r c e b a s e w h i c h w i l l s a t i s f y t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f a p o p u l a t i o n o v e r a l o n g t e r m . 2 A n d e r s o n d e s c r i b e d a f o u r - p a r t m e t h o d o l o g y t o r e l a t e t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f u s e r s t o t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l p o t e n t i a l o f t h e l a n d s c a p e : K.A. Anderson, A User Resource Planning Method, ( C a l i f o r n i a : National Advisory Council on Regional Recreation Planning, 1959). 8 (1) E s t i m a t e t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n a s p e c i f i e d a r e a b y c a t e g o r i z i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l e x p e r i e n c e s i n t o u s e r g r o u p s a n d m e a s u r i n g t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s r e q u i r e d b y e a c h u s e r g r o u p . (2) E s t i m a t e t h e p o t e n t i a l o f r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s a s t h e y r e l a t e t o u s e r g r o u p s . (3) R e l a t e t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l o f t h e r e s o u r c e b a s e . (4) E s t i m a t e t h e c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s o f p r o v i d i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s i n v a r i o u s s e c t o r s o f t h e r e s o u r c e b a s e . A n d e r s o n s u g g e s t e d t h a t a m e a s u r e o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f a p o p u l a t i o n w a s t h e c o r n e r s t o n e o f t h e f o u r p a r t m e t h o d . A s I d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s c h a p t e r , i t i s o n l y p o s s i b l e t o u s e p r o x i m a t e m e a s u r e s s u c h a s b e h a v i o r a s i n d i c a t i v e o f r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s . T h e k i n d s o f a c t i v i t i e s p e o p l e p u r s u e , a n d t h e amount o f t i m e a n d money t h e y s p e n d o n e a c h a c t i v i t y a r e b e h a v i o r a l m e a s u r e s t h a t h a v e b e e n u s e d t o j u d g e r e c r e a t i o n a l n e e d . B u t t h e s e a r e s i m p l y m e a s u r e s o f c o n s u m e r b e h a v i o r w h i c h i s i n f l u e n c e d b y t h e r a p i d l y c h a n g i n g s o c i a l , e c o n o m i c a n d t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s i n N o r t h A m e r i c a . M e a s u r e m e n t s o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r p a t t e r n s o f a p o p u l a t i o n may b e p r o x i m a t e m e a s u r e s o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h a t p o p u l a t i o n f o r a v e r y s h o r t t i m e o n l y . A n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h u n d e r l i e p a t t e r n s o f c o n s u m p t i o n i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n i s m a n d a t o r y . O n l y i f t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e u n d e r s t o o d c a n t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f a p o p u l a t i o n b e p r o j e c t e d . 9 A s e c o n d c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n m e a s u r i n g t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f a p o p u l a t i o n i s t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s r e q u i r e d b y e a c h u s e r g r o u p . T h e q u a l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s w h i c h a r e a l l o c a t e d f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a -t i o n i s a n i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t o f t h e o p t i m u m e n j o h m e n t a n d u s e t h a t c a n b e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e m . B u t t h e i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t w h a t c o n s t i t u t e s q u a l i t y i s i n a d e q u a t e . W i t h i n a n y g e o g r a p h i c r e g i o n t h e l a n d s u r f a c e may d i s p l a y m a r k e d d i f f e r e n c e s i n s o i l t y p e , v e g e t a t i o n , r e l a t i o n s h i p t o b o d i e s o f w a t e r , e t c . T h e s e f a c t o r s s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e t h e a d a p t i b i l i t y o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e t o v a r i o u s t y p e s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . I n f a c t , t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d e f i n e t h e t y p e a n d amount o f r e c r e a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s t h e l a n d a r e a c a n p r o d u c e o v e r a g i v e n p e r i o d o f t i m e . On t h e o n e h a n d t h e y p r e s c r i b e t h e c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y o f a n a r e a f o r e a c h o f t h e v a r i o u s k i n d s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s i t m i g h t p o s s i b l y a c c o m m o d a t e . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e y i n f l u e n c e s t r o n g l y t h e r e a l c o s t s o f p r o d u c i n g s u c h s e r v i c e s , w h e t h e r t h e s e c o s t s a r e i n c u r r e d i n t h e f o r m o f e x p e n d i t u r e s t o m a i n t a i n r e s o u r c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t h e f a c e o f c o n s t a n t u s e , o r i n t h e f o r m o f r e s o u r c e d e p l e t i o n ( i . e . , a c h a n g e i n r e s o u r c e c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s ) . 3 R e s e a r c h o n t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e p o t e n t i a l l y u s a b l e f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n m u s t i d e n t i f y t h e s p e c i f i c a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e r e s o u r c e b a s e w h i c h a r e r e q u i r e d f o r i n d i v i d u a l t y p e s o f r e s o u r c e - b a s e d r e c r e a t i o n . T h i s c a n b e a c h i e v e d b y s e l e c t i n g m e a s u r a b l e a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s , A P r o g r a m f o r O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n  R e s e a r c h , ( W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . : N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s , 1 9 6 9 ) , p . 5 1 . 10 a n d c o r r e l a t i n g t h e s e w i t h t h e u s e r r e s p o n s e t o t h e m . O n c e s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e e s t a b l i s h e d , a s i t e q u a l i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f t h e r e s o u r c e b a s e c a n b e made i n t e r m s o f i n d i v i d u a l t y p e s o f r e s o u r c e -b a s e d r e c r e a t i o n . T h u s t h e r e l a t i v e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f v a r i o u s l a n d a r e a s f o r d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s c a n b e d e f i n e d . I n a s s e s s i n g t h e q u a l i t y o f a p a r t i c u l a r r e s o u r c e f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n , t h e e f f e c t o f v a r i o u s l e v e l s a n d t y p e s o f u s e o n t h e r e s o u r c e m u s t b e c o n s i d e r e d . T h e c o s t s o f i g n o r i n g t h e e c o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e r e s o u r c e a r e l o w w h e n i t i s i n f r e q u e n t l y u s e d b u t t h e y b e c o m e i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p o r t a n t a t h i g h e r l e v e l s o f u s e . A r e p o r t b y t h e N a t i o n a l 4 A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s s u g g e s t e d t h a t r e s e a r c h o n t h e q u a l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s s h o u l d t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t s p e c i f i c a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e r e s o u r c e t y p e w h i c h n o t o n l y a r e r e l a t e d t o human p e r c e p t i o n o f t h a t r e s o u r c e b u t w h i c h a l s o h a v e a h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h u s e r i m p a c t s o n r e s o u r c e e c o l o g y . T h i s s t e p i s e s s e n t i a l f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e number o f i n d i v i d u a l s t h e r e s o u r c e c o u l d s e r v e w h i l e r e m a i n i n g i n . a l o n g - t e r m p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y . A n d i t c a n d e f i n e t h e c o s t o f m a n a g i n g t h e r e s o u r c e t o m a i n t a i n i t s a t t r a c t i v e -n e s s . I n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e s u s c e p t i b i l i t y o f t h e r e s o u r c e t o damage b y r e c r e a t i o n i s t s i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h a s i t e q u a l i t y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n w o u l d p e r m i t a g e n c i e s t o d e s i g n s y s t e m s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d f r o m t h e s t a n d -p o i n t o f t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f r e s o u r c e s t o b o t h a t t r a c t a n d a c c o m m o d a t e 4 • • • , . . » -N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s , A P r o g r a m f o r O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n • R e s e a r c h , ( W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . : N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s , 1 9 6 9 ) . r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . A s y e t , n o o p e r a t i o n a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s c h e m e o f t h i s s o r t e x i s t s . M o s t c u r r e n t s c h e m e s f o r t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l q u a l i t y o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e a s s u m e u n i f o r m c o n d i t i o n s o f a c c e s s . T h e r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme"* p r o d u c e d b y ARDA ( A g r i c u l t u r a l a n d R u r a l D e v e l o p m e n t A c t , 1 9 6 5 ) i s a c a s e i n p o i n t . L a n d a r e a s w e r e r a n k e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e r e l a t i v e c a p a b i l i t y o f e a c h l a n d u n i t t o a t t r a c t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s — a s s u m i n g a common l e v e l o f demand a n d a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n a l l a r e a s . B u t , i n a p r a c t i c a l s e n s e , t h e v a l u e t h a t t h e l a n d s u r f a c e h o l d s f o r t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t a l s o d e p e n d s o n how e a s i l y i t i s a c c e s s i b l e t o h i m . I n m o s t s i t u a t i o n s i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o c l a s s i f y t h e l a n d s u r f a c e i n t e r m s o f i t s a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t b e c a u s e t h e l a n d s u r f a c e w o u l d h a v e t o b e c l a s s i f i e d i n a s many w a y s a s t h e r e w e r e p o i n t s o f a c c e s s t o i t . H o w e v e r , t h e c a s e s t u d y I h a v e c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s t h e s i s d o e s p e r m i t t h e i n c l u s i o n o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y f a c t o r s i n t o a s y s t e m o f l a n d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . M o s t o f t h e v i s i t o r s t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d a r r i v e b y f e r r y a t S t u r d i e s B a y ; f e w a r r i v e f r o m t h e o t h e r f e r r y t e r m i n a l a t M o n t a g u e H a r b o r . A l l o f t h e v i s i t o r s i n c l u d e d i n t h e s a m p l e c h o s e n f o r t h e a n a l y s i s d i s e m b a r k e d a t S t u r d i e s B a y . T h u s , t h e a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f v a r i o u s l a n d u n i t s t o t h e s e r e c r e a t i o n i s t s c a n b e d e f i n e d i n t e r m s o f some m e a s u r e m e n t o f d i s t a n c e , t i m e , o r c o s t f r o m S t u r d i e s B a y . D e p a r t m e n t o f F o r e s t r y a n d R u r a l D e v e l o p m e n t o f C a n a d a , F i e l d  M a n u a l : L a n d C a p a b i l i t y C l a s s i f i c a t i o n f o r O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n ( O t t a w a : Q u e e n ' s P r i n t e r , 1 9 6 7 ) . 12 T h i s s t u d y i s a n a t t e m p t t o m e a s u r e t h e p o t e n t i a l o f r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d b y m e a s u r i n g t h e r e s p o n s e o f a s p e c i f i c p o p u l a t i o n t o t h e l a n d s u r f a c e . Of t h e f o u r s t e p s p r o p o s e d b y A n d e r s o n , I h a v e o n l y . d e a l t w i t h t h e f i r s t . H o w e v e r , t h e f i r s t s t e p i s t h e c o r n e r s t o n e o f t h e e n t i r e m e t h o d . My a n a l y s i s h a s b e e n e x p l o r a t o r y r a t h e r t h a n d e f i n i t i v e . I h o p e t o show t h a t t h e m e t h o d o l o g y I h a v e u s e d , s u b j e c t t o t h e r e f i n e m e n t s I h a v e s u g g e s t e d t h r o u g h o u t t h i s t h e s i s , c a n b e a p p l i e d t o o b t a i n a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e r e s p o n s e o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s t o t h e l a n d s u r f a c e o f t h e G u l f I s l a n d s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . D e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e o p e r a t i o n a l t e r m s u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y h a v e b e e n p l a c e d i n A p p e n d i x I . CHAPTER II THE CASE STUDY 2.1 Geography and Access The Canadian Gulf Islands l i e i n the S t r a i t of Georgia between Vancouver Island and the mainland of B r i t i s h Columbia. They f a l l between the 48th and 49th P a r a l l e l North Latitude and between the 123rd and 124th Meridian West Longitude. They extend from Comox Harbor i n the north to the International boundary i n the south, covering an area of approximately 100,000 acres. The Islands are divided into two major groups, northern and southern. The northern group, which includes Hornby and Denman Islands, i s separated from the southern group by a distance of approximately 40 miles. The southern group i s comprised of some 25 l a r g e r islands and many smaller i s l e t s . Galiano Island i s one of the l a r g e r , more accessible is l a n d s of the southern subgroup. Galiano Island i s approximately 18 miles long and one to three miles wide. The long axis of Galiano runs from northeast to south-west. The southwestern end of Galiano Island, the widest point of the i s l a n d , borders on Active Pass, the narrowest passage of a busy shipping route between Vancouver and V i c t o r i a . The main passenger and shipping terminal of Galiano Island i s Sturdies Bay, a small harbor i n A c t i v e Pass. The B r i t i s h Columbia F e r r i e s supply a regular service to Galiano Island throughout the year. A r r i v a l s and 14 departures each day are more frequent in summer than in winter. Daily ferry service to Montague Harbour on the southern shore of Galiano Island is also provided from Swartz Bay, on Vancouver Island. There is relatively l i t t l e traffic at this point. Privately owned marinas, which cater to pleasure boat traffic are located in Sturdies Bay, Montague Harbour and Lighthouse Bay on the northeasterly tip of Galiano Island. 2.2 Climate, Landform, Biota Temperatures are mild and pleasant year round on the Gulf Islands. The frost-free period averages between 200 and 250 days per year. Precipitation averages from 30 to 40 inches per annum, falling mostly in winter months. Average temperatures are 38 degrees in January and 62 degrees in July. Galiano Island is one of the more rugged and least fertile of the Gulf Islands. The northern shoreline of Galiano Island is composed of gradually sloping rock shelves. From the northern shoreline the land slopes upward, ending in precipitous bluffs along much of the southern shoreline. The southwestern portion of Galiano has a gently rolling topography broken by Mount Sutil and Mount Galiano which approach 1,000 feet in elevation. The vegetation of Galiano Island is characteristic of the "Coastal Douglas Fir Biogeoclimatic Region" described by Krajina. Within this general biogeoclimatic region, the forest trees of Galiano Island are further described as being characteristic of the V. J. Kratina, Ecology of Western North America, Volume II (Vancouver: The University of British Columbia, 1969). 15 " D r i e r ( G a r r y O a k — D o u g l a s F i r ) S u b z o n e " . T h i s v e g e t a t i o n a l s u b z o n e o c c u r s i n p a r t s o f s o u t h e r n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a a n d V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d w h i c h h a v e a l o w t o t a l a n n u a l r a i n f a l l . I t i s o n e o f t h e l e a s t p r o d u c t i v e f o r e s t z o n e s o f c o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . T h e f o l l o w i n g t r e e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h i s s u b z o n e : 1 . D o u g l a s F i r ( P s e u d o t s u g a m e n z i e s i i ) . D o u g l a s f i r s t a n d s a r e common b u t l i m i t e d t o w e t t e r h a b i t a t s . 2 . G r a n d F i r ( A b i e s g r a r i d i s ) . T h e G r a n d F i r i s n o t a common t r e e i n t h e d r y s u b z o n e ; i t s o c c u r r e n c e i s l i m i t e d t o a r e a s o f r i c h s o i l s . 3 . W e s t e r n R e d C e d a r ( T h u j a p l i c a t a ) . S t a n d s o f W e s t e r n R e d C e d a r a r e l i m i t e d t o l o w w e t a r e a s . S c a t t e r e d s p e c i -mens o c c u r i n d r i e r h a b i t a t s b u t e x h i b i t . p o o r g r o w t h . 4 . G a r r y Oak ( Q u e r c u s g a r y a n a ) . T h e G a r r y Oak o c c u r s a s i s o l a t e d s p e c i m e n s o n h i l l s a n d b l u f f s . T h e G u l f I s l a n d s _ o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a a n d p a r t s o f s o u t h e r n V a n c o u v e r I s l a n d m a r k t h e n o r t h e r n l i m i t o f i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n . 5 . A r b u t u s ( A r b u t u s m e n z i e s i i ) . T h e A r b u t u s i s t h e o n l y b r o a d l e a f e d e v e r g r e e n f o u n d i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . A s i n t h e c a s e o f t h e G a r r y O a k , t h e A r b u t u s i s a l s o a t t h e n o r t h e r n l i m i t s o f i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t h e G u l f I s l a n d s . I t s h a b i t a t i s much t h e same a s t h e G a r r y O a k . B o t h s p e c i e s a r e o f t e n s e e n g r o w i n g s i d e - b y - s i d e , f o r m i n g a v e r y o p e n f o r e s t . 16 6 . L o d g e p o l e P i n e ( P i n u s c o n t o r t a ) . T h e L o d g e p o l e P i n e o c c u r s i n a l m o s t a l l o f t h e o p e n f o r e s t s o f t h e G u l f I s l a n d s . I t h a s v e r y g e n e r a l r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d may b e o b s e r v e d i n m o s t h a b i t a t s w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f v e r y s h a d e d a r e a s . T h e t r e e s l i s t e d b e l o w may a l s o o c c u r o n t h e G u l f I s l a n d s b u t c o m p r i s e a s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e n a t u r a l f o r e s t c o v e r . 7 . B i t t e r C h e r r y ( P r i i r i u s e m a r g i n a t a ) . 8 . R e d A l d e r ( A l n u s r u b r a ) . 9 . B r o a d l e a f M a p l e ( A c e r m a c r o p h y l l u m ) . 1 0 . V i n e M a p l e ( A c e r c i r c i n a t u m ) . T h e a b o v e l i s t i s n o t e x h a u s t i v e ; b u t . i t d o e s c o n t a i n t h o s e t r e e s p e c i e s m o s t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h e G u l f I s l a n d s . L o g g i n g a n d g r a z i n g a c t i v i t i e s i n c e r t a i n a r e a s h a v e c h a n g e d t h e n a t u r a l v e g e t a -t i o n o f t h e G u l f I s l a n d s . F o r i n s t a n c e , r e c e n t l y l o g g e d a r e a s may c o n t a i n l a r g e p o p u l a t i o n s o f A l d e r , a s p e c i e s n o t a b u n d a n t i n v i r g i n f o r e s t s t a n d s . T h e p r i n c i p a l mammals o f t h e s o u t h e r n G u l f I s l a n d s a r e d e e r , r a c c o o n s , a n d v a r i o u s r o d e n t s . T h e a b u n d a n c e o f mammals v a r i e s f r o m i s l a n d t o i s l a n d . T h e a v i f a u n a o f t h e G u l f I s l a n d s i s a l s o v a r i e d , c o n s i s t i n g o f l a n d b i r d s , s h o r e b i r d s , a n d s e a b i r d s . T h e l a t t e r t w o g r o u p s a r e m o s t a b u n d a n t . T h e i n t e r t i d a l z o n e o f t h e s h o r e l i n e s o f t h e G u l f I s l a n d s s u p p o r t a n a b u n d a n t i n v e r t e b r a t e f a u n a a s w e l l a s many s p e c i e s o f seaweed and algae. Oysters, clams, various crustaceans, s t a r f i s h , etc., are v i s i b l e on a l l but the most rocky shores which, are favored by barnacles and mussels. 2.3 Land Use and Development White settlement on Galiano Island began i n the 1880's^ and has continued to expand at an in c r e a s i n g l y rapid rate into the pre-sent. Most of the present cottage development i s l i m i t e d to the southwestern end, below a l i n e running from Montague Harbour to Sala-manca Point. Approximately 300 people now make Galiano Island t h e i r permanent home; as many more have summer cottages on the i s l a n d . Most of the northeastern two-thirds of the land area of Galiano Island i s i n C e r t i f i e d Tree Farm Number 19, owned by MacMillan Bloedel Limited (see Map No. 1). Most of the valuable timber has been removed; logging a c t i v i t y occurred only i n i s o l a t e d pockets during the summer of 1969. In an interview with a MacMillan Bloedel executive, I was t o l d that the company had spent considerable money i n managing and improving t h e i r property on Galiano Island and that they expected a crop of merchantable timber i n 50 to 70 years. Public access to the Tree Farm was not l i m i t e d during the summer of 1969. In f a c t there was l i t t l e evidence from the land surface where the boundaries of the Tree Farm e x i s t . B. C. H i s t o r i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , Gulf Islands Branch, A Gulf  Islands Patchwork (Sidney, B.C.: Peninsula P r i n t i n g Co. L t d . , 1961). 19 G a l i a n o I s l a n d now h a s o n l y t h r e e f u l l - t i m e f a r m s o n t h e s o u t h e a s t e r n e n d . T h e s e o c c u p y a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l l a n d a r e a . A g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t y o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d h a s b e c o m e l e s s i m p o r t a n t a s t h e v a l u e o f t h e l a n d f o r c o t t a g e d e v e l o p -m e n t h a s i n c r e a s e d . T h e r a p i d r i s e i n l a n d p r i c e s o n t h e G u l f I s l a n d s a t t e s t s t o t h e i r g r o w i n g p o p u l a r i t y , b o t h t o r e s i d e n t s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a a n d t o A m e r i c a n s s e e k i n g v a c a t i o n h o m e s . T h e f a s t m o v i n g r e a l e s t a t e m a r k e t o n t h e G u l f I s l a n d s h a s r e c e n t l y a t t r a c t e d l a n d s p e c u l a t o r s a n d d e v e l o p e r s who h a v e a d v e r t i s e d t h e i r s a l e a b l e h o l d -i n g s t o a w i d e s p r e a d p u b l i c . T h e S u n d a y , A u g u s t 2 4 , 1 9 6 9 i s s u e o f t h e New Y o r k T i m e s f e a t u r e d a n a r t i c l e o n t h e C a n a d i a n G u l f I s l a n d s w h i c h d e s c r i b e d . . . t h e t h i c k l y f o r e s t e d h i l l s , t h e p r o m i s e — b u t n o i r o n -c l a d g u a r a n t e e - — o f y e a r - r o u n d g o l f , t h e s a i l i n g , t h e f i s h i n g , t h e p r i v a c y a n d t h e q u i e t . Y e t t h i s p o p u l a r i t y i s c a u s e f o r c o n c e r n ; c o t t a g e r s f i n d p r i v a c y a h i g h l y p r i c e d c o m m o d i t y o n many o f t h e m o r e s e t t l e d i s l a n d s . C o t t a g e d e v e l o p m e n t s a r e a s s u m i n g t h e a t m o s p h e r e o f t y p i c a l m o d e r n s u b -d i v i s i o n s . T h e f e a r t h a t t h e G u l f I s l a n d s may e v o l v e i n t o a s u b u r b a n d o r m i t o r y f o r t h e f a s t g r o w i n g c i t i e s o f s o u t h e r n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a h a s l e d t o t h e c o m m i s s i o n o f s e v e r a l s t u d i e s . T h e s t u d y d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s t h e s i s was f u n d e d b y t h e D o n n e r C a n a d i a n F o u n d a t i o n a n d s u p e r v i s e d b y D r . H . P . O b e r l a n d e r , D i r e c t o r o f t h e S c h o o l o f C o m m u n i t y a n d . R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g a t T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . 20 2 . 4 T h e C a s e S t u d y : M e t h o d s D u r i n g t h e summer o f 1 9 6 9 , I w a s e m p l o y e d a s a r e s e a r c h a s s i s t a n t t o D r . O b e r l a n d e r t o s t u d y r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d u s e p a t t e r n s o n t h e G u l f I s l a n d s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . F o l l o w i n g a d e c i s i o n t o g a t h e r d a t a b y u s i n g a q u e s t i o n n a i r e , s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t q u e s t i o n -n a i r e s w e r e c o n s t r u c t e d a n d t e s t e d b o t h i n t h e l a b o r a t o r y a n d i n t h e f i e l d . A n e x a m p l e o f t h e f i n a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e d e s i g n i s p r e s e n t e d i n A p p e n d i x 2 . T h e " p o p u l a t i o n " f r o m w h i c h we w i s h e d t o g a t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n c o n s i s t e d o f a l l g r o u p s o f p e o p l e who v i s i t e d G a l i a n o I s l a n d b e t w e e n A u g u s t 8 a n d S e p t e m b e r 1 , 1 9 6 9 . T h e s a m p l i n g " u n i t " w a s a v i s i t o r " g r o u p ' . ' w h i c h c o n s i s t e d o f a t l e a s t o n e p e r s o n a n d o c c a s i o n a l l y i n c l u d e d a s many a s t e n p e o p l e . T h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w e r e d i s t r i b u t e d t o g r o u p s o f p e o p l e l e a v -i n g G a l i a n o I s l a n d b e t w e e n A u g u s t 8 a n d S e p t e m b e r 1 . T h e d i s t r i b u t i o n p o i n t s w e r e t h e two t e r m i n a l s o f t h e B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a F e r r i e s o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d , S t u r d i e s B a y a n d M o n t a g u e H a r b o r . Two g i r l s i n t h e i r e a r l y t w e n t i e s w e r e e m p l o y e d b y t h e S c h o o l o f C o m m u n i t y a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g t o a s s i s t me i n t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h e m e t h o d o f d i s t r i b u t i o n w a s t o a p p r o a c h p e r s o n s w a i t i n g f o r o u t b o u n d f e r r i e s ( b o t h c a r a n d f o o t p a s s e n g e r s ) , e x p l a i n t h e p u r p o s e o f t h e q u e s t i o n -n a i r e i n b r i e f , a n d r e q u e s t t h e p r o s p e c t i v e r e s p o n d e n t s t o r e t u r n t h e c o m p l e t e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e a t t h e i r e a r l i e s t c o n v e n i e n c e . T h e q u e s t i o n -n a i r e s w e r e a l l p r e - a d d r e s s e d a n d s t a m p e d . 21 T h e o r i g i n a l i n t e n t i o n o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e d i s t r i b u t i o n s c h e d u l e w a s t o c o n t a c t e v e r y g r o u p o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s who v i s i t e d G a l i a n o I s l a n d d u r i n g t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . I n a r o u g h s e n s e , t h i s o b j e c t i v e w a s a c c o m p l i s h e d . H o w e v e r , we d i d n o t t a k e a r e p r e s e n t a -t i v e s a m p l e f r o m w e e k d a y t r a f f i c . T h e B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a F e r r i e s e m p l o y e e s o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d a s s u r e d u s t h a t w e e k d a y t r a f f i c w a s s m a l l i n p r o p o r t i o n t o w e e k e n d t r a f f i c . A s a r e s u l t we d e c i d e d t o s a m p l e o n w e e k e n d s o n l y , t o a v o i d t h e a d d i t i o n a l e x p e n s e o f w e e k -d a y d i s t r i b u t i o n . C o n s e q u e n t l y t h e s a m p l e i s w e i g h t e d t o w a r d w e e k e n d v i s i t o r s w i t h l i t t l e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n f r o m w e e k d a y v i s i t o r s . T a b l e 1 c o n t a i n s t h e number o f q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w h i c h w e r e d i s t r i b u t e d b y d a y w i t h i n t h e s a m p l i n g p e r i o d . A s m a l l e r n u m b e r o f q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w e r e d i s t r i b u t e d a t c a m p s i t e s , m a r i n a s , e t c . , o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d . H o w e v e r , t h e s e r e p r e s e n t e d a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l a n d w e r e o m i t t e d f r o m t h e a n a l y s i s b e c a u s e we d i d n o t h a v e c o n t r o l o v e r who r e c e i v e d t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s a n d when t h e y w e r e r e c e i v e d . We g a v e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s t o c a m p s i t e a n d m a r i n a o w n e r s a f t e r t h e y h a d v o l u n -t e e r e d t h e i r c o - o p e r a t i o n t o d i s t r i b u t e t h e m . O u r m e t h o d o f d i s t r i b u t i o n d i d n o t s e p a r a t e p e o p l e who owned p r o p e r t y o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d f r o m t h o s e who d i d n o t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , b o t h g r o u p s r e c e i v e d a n d c o m p l e t e d t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e . T h e r e s p o n d e n t s w e r e l a t e r s e p a r a t e d i n t o two g r o u p s o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e i r a n s w e r t o q u e s t i o n 5 ( s e e A p p e n d i x I I ) . O n l y t h e v i s i t o r g r o u p w a s e x a m i n e d i n t h i s t h e s i s . TABLE I QUESTIONNAIRE DISTRIBUTION SCHEDULE Date D i s t r i b u t i o n Point Number Di s t r i b u t e d Aug. 8 Galiano Lodge 25 10 Sturdies Bay 51 15 Montague Harbour 4 15 Sturdies Bay 9 16 Sturdies Bay 16 17 Montague Harbour 15 17 Sturdies Bay 34 17 Private Campsites (2) 25 19 Sturdies Bay 4 22 Sturdies Bay 8 22 Montague Harbour 8 23 Sturdies Bay 4 23 Montague Harbour 6 24 Sturdies Bay 86 24. Montague Harbour 21 26 Sturdies Bay 6 27 Sturdies Bay 16 29 Sturdies Bay 40 29 Other (Marinas & Store) 21 31 Montague Harbour 9 Sept . 1 Montague Harbour 9 1 Sturdies Bay 30 Tot a l 442 '•23 By O c t o b e r 1 5 , 1 9 6 9 , 140 o f t h e t o t a l o f 422 d i s t r i b u t e d q u e s t i o n n a i r e s h a d b e e n r e t u r n e d . T h i s r e p r e s e n t e d a 3 5 . 3 % r e s p o n s e , a s u r p r i s i n g l y g o o d r e s p o n s e r a t e f o r a m a i l - b a c k q u e s t i o n n a i r e . Of t h e 140 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s , a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w o - t h i r d s h a d b e e n c o m -p l e t e d b y v i s i t o r s . T h e n u m b e r o f u s a b l e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s v a r i e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r a n a l y s i s . . . T h i s l i m i t a t i o n h a s b e e n d i s c u s s e d i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n t o e a c h a n a l y s i s . T h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w e r e c o d e d a n d t h e i n f o r m a t i o n w a s t r a n s -f e r r e d t o p u n c h - c a r d s . T h e f a c i l i t i e s a t T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e w e r e u s e d t o a i d i n t h e d a t a a n a l y s i s . C H A P T E R I I I O U T D O O R R E C R E A T I O N : F A C T O R S I N F L U E N C I N G P A R T I C I P A T I O N 3.1 P a r t i c i p a t i o n : S o m e G e n e r a l C o n s i d e r a t i o n s T h e i n c r e a s e i n l e i s u r e t i m e , d i s c r e t i o n a r y i n c o m e , a n d t h e n u m b e r o f a c c e s s i b l e a r e a s h a v e b r o a d e n e d t h e r a n g e o f r e c r e a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e t o N o r t h A m e r i c a n s . B u t o p p o r t u n i t y h a s n o t b e e n e q u a l t o a l l . T h e r e a r e s o c i a l , p s y c h o l o g i c a l , f i n a n c i a l , g e o g r a p h i c a n d p h y s i o l o g i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s w h i c h a c t a s b a r r i e r s t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n . S o m e a c t i v i t i e s m a y b e e x c l u s i v e t o c e r t a i n s o c i a l c l a s s e s ; o t h e r s a r e n o t . P h y s i o l o g i c a l . c o n s i d e r a t i o n s l i m i t t h e p u r s u i t o f s t r e n o u s a c t i v i t i e s t o t h e y o u n g a n d h e a l t h y . Y e t p e r s o n s o f a l l a g e s m a y e n j o y a d r i v e i n t h e c o u n t r y . T h e r e i s e v e r y i n d i c a t i o n t h a t t h e i n f l u e n c e t h e s e b a r r i e r s t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n c u r r e n t l y e x e r t o n t h e r e c r e a t i o n p a t t e r n s o f p e o p l e w i l l c h a n g e . A n d a s t h e I n f l u e n c e o f t h e s e f a c t o r s c h a n g e s t h e n u m b e r a n d t y p e o f p a r t i c i p a n t s i n v a r i o u s a c t i v i t i e s w i l l c h a n g e . T h u s p a r t i c i p a t i o n d a t a i s s p e c i f i c t o t h e t i m e a n d p l a c e a t w h i c h i t i s g a t h e r e d a n d i s r e l a t e d t o t h e p r e v a i l i n g s o c i a l > e c o n o m i c , a n d p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s . T h e r e f o r e t h e p r o j e c t i o n o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s f i r s t r e q u i r e s t h a t t h o s e f a c t o r s w h i c h u n d e r l i e d e m a n d b e i s o l a t e d . T h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s u m m a r i z e s t h e m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t d i s c o v e r i e s i n t h e r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e o n t h e e s t i m a t i o n a n d e x p l a n a t i o n o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s . 3.2 P a r t i c i p a t i o n : Recent L i t e r a t u r e The e a r l i e s t and best known analysis of p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates 8 was done by the Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission (1962) , hereafter r e f e r r e d to as ORRRC. The authors of ORRRC Report 9 No. 20, (1962) hypothesized that the amount and kinds of outdoor a c t i v i t i e s pursued by r e c r e a t i o n i s t s were r e l a t e d to various socio-economic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the p a r t i c i p a n t s . Home interviews were conducted across the United States of America to f i n d the rates of p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n 22 selected a c t i v i t i e s . P a r t i c i p a t i o n rates were combined to form a s i n g l e " a c t i v i t y index". This was a quantitative combination of the estimated time spent i n various a c t i v i t i e s over a 12 month period. Two analyses were made. F i r s t , the authors examined the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the a c t i v i t y index and s i n g l e socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , i . e . , income; second, a form of m u l t i v a r i a t e analysis was used to i d e n t i f y the r e l a t i o n s h i p between p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates and selected socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s — - w h i l e holding a l l other f a c t o r s constant. They c a l l e d the technique a "Multiple C l a s s i f i c a t i o n A n a l y s i s " which provided.the answer to the following question: "Given a (numerical) dependent v a r i a b l e and knowledge about the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of each i n d i v i d u a l on a number of a t t r i b u t e s , how can we p r e d i c t each ORRRC, l o c . c j t . I b i d . individual's position with respect to the dependent variable in such a way as to minimize the sum of squares of the errors (the error variance)?""*"^ The ORRRC report treated the outdoor recreation activity scale as the dependent variable and each of the following characteristics as independent variables; income, education, occu-pation, length of paid vacation, race, age, l i f e cycle stage, region, and place of residence. The analysis was made separately for men and women to eliminate the interaction effect between sex and other independent variables. The result of their findings for each in-dependent variable are presented below. Income In general, participation rates rose from the lowest to the highest income groups. Education The higher educated show a higher participation rate. Occupation Activity increases as the occupational status hierarchy is ascended, i.e., professionals generally rank higher on the activity scale than unskilled labourers. Paid Vacation Participation rates rise in proportion to the length of -paid vacation. 100RRRC, loc. cit. Place of Residence Four categories i n the rural-Durban continuum were.identified the c i t i e s themselves, the surrounding suburbs, the areas adjacent to the suburbs and extending to a distance of 50 miles from the population centre, out l y i n g areas at l e a s t 50 miles from a c i t y of 50,000 people. No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates and l o c a t i o n of residence were noted. Sex Men were found.to be s l i g h t l y more active than women. The di f f e r e n c e i n some a c t i v i t i e s , i . e . , hunting, was more pronounced than i n others. Age An increase i n age (beginning at age 12) corresponded with a decrease on the a c t i v i t y scale. In q u a l i t a t i v e terms, there was a general s h i f t from a c t i v e to more sedentary a c t i v i t i e s i n older people. L i f e Cycle The v a r i a b l e describing l i f e cycle was a combination of age, ma r i t a l status, and children's age. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between l i f e c y cle and p o s i t i o n on the a c t i v i t y scale was weak and probably r e f l e c t i v e only of age d i f f e r e n c e s . Race Negroes were much l e s s a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a n t s than whites. 28 Robert D a i u t e ^ presented several objections to both the methods and a p p l i c a b i l i t y of the ORRRC report. His f i r s t c r i t i c i s m was that the report was too general to be applicable to the planning process at l o c a l l e v e l s . Conditions vary from l o c a l i t y to l o c a l i t y . Therefore, i t i s not reasonable to assume that forecasts of a c t i v i t y rates based on na t i o n a l averages w i l l be accurate at the l o c a l l e v e l . Regional d i f f e r e n c e s i n p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates, • both;:current and pro-12 ject e d , are found i n the C a l i f o r n i a State Planning Monographs. The authors of t h i s s e r i e s , i n conjunction with the Stanford Research I n s t i t u t e , projected demand for outdoor re c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s within s p e c i f i e d distances of several of the larger metropolitan centres i n C a l i f o r n i a . They f i r s t established a r e l a t i o n s h i p between r e c r e a t i o n -a l a c t i v i t y patterns and socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Then they forecasted r e c r e a t i o n a l demand f o r selected a c t i v i t i e s from the expected frequency change i n socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Fore-casts d i f f e r e d f or each of the metropolitan areas. Daiute also r a i s e d the objection that the ORRRC report assumed that c h i l d r e n under 12 years of age did not exert an influence on the choice of re c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s away from home. He estimated that R. J . Daiute, "Methods for Determination of Demand for Outdoor Recreation," Land Economics, 42 (1966), 327-338. 12 C a l i f o r n i a Department of Parks and Recreation, Outdoor  Recreation Outlook to 1980 ( C a l i f o r n i a : Department of Parks and Recreation, June, 1966). 29 "the error could be on the order of underestimating demand by 50 per cent i n the case of fa m i l i e s with two adults and two c h i l d r e n under twelve." In addition to t h i s consideration, I would guess that the number and ages of c h i l d r e n under twelve greatly influence the l o c a t i o n and type of r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s pursued by a recreating group. Families with very young c h i l d r e n are more dependent on such f a c i l i t i e s as sanitary and food services than f a m i l i e s with older c h i l d r e n . Also, one would not expect f a m i l i e s to take very young c h i l d r e n on arduous t r i p s i . e . , h i k i n g , wilder-ness camping, etc. However, a f t e r c h i l d r e n have reached 8 or 10 years of age they may not be a burden to the parents, even on strenuous outings. The precedent established by the ORRRC report stimulated other researchers to pursue s i m i l a r l i n e s of research on a l o c a l , rather than n a t i o n a l , l e v e l . A l l of the research has followed the same general pattern; surveys are administered to uncover the factors which govern present demand on the assumption that future demand can be predicted from an understanding of the forces underlying present demand. Demographic and socioeconomic v a r i a b l e s have been correlated with p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s — o n a general scale and for s p e c i f i c outdoor rec r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . The ORRRC study reported 2 an R (multiple c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t ) of 0.30 between the com-posite e f f e c t of a l l of the socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s l i s t e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s chapter and the a c t i v i t y scale. This means that 30% of the observed v a r i a t i o n i n the a c t i v i t y scale was explained by socioeconomic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . However, one might question the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates as an a c t i v i t y scale to the planning process. A mathematical r e l a t i o n s h i p , regard-l e s s of i t s s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e , i s of l i t t l e value i f i t cannot be translated i n workable terms. And an a c t i v i t y scale, calculated as an aggregate of the p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates i n various a c t i v i t i e s , i s of l i t t l e use for s p e c i f i c design purposes. Planners must design f a c i l i t i e s f o r s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s . There i s no assurance that p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n d i f f e r e n t outdoor a c t i v i t i e s w i l l e x h i b i t s i m i l a r rates of increase. In f a c t , there i s evidence to the contrary. Thus research on a c t i v i t y scales has l i t t l e applied value. A more us e f u l branch of the research on r e c r e a t i o n a l demand has explored the value of selected demographic and socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . a s p r e d i c t i v e of p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates i n s i n g l e 13 a c t i v i t i e s . Green and Wadsworth examined the factors a f f e c t i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n camping i n Indiana. They concluded that the v a r i a b l e s that tend to have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on camping are: Cl) occupation, (2) age, (3) vacation, (4) education, and (5) type of camping o u t f i t . Generally speaking, persons c l a s s i f i e d as managers and laborers do the most camping, p a r t i c i p a t i o n decreases with age, par-t i c i p a t i o n increases with days of paid vacation and education, and campers with the most expensive types of camping o u t f i t s do the most camping. . B. L. Green and H. A. Wadsworth, Campers: What A f f e c t s  P a r t i c i p a t i o n and What Do They Want? (Indiana: Purdue U n i v e r s i t y A g r i c u l t u r e Experiment Station, 1966), p. 2. Green and Wadsworth used a multiple regression type of analysis with number of nights camped during the calendar year 1963 as dependent v a r i a b l e and independent v a r i a b l e s including f i v e of the above 2 l i s t e d , The analysis yielded R of approximately 0.20, explaining only 1/5 of the v a r i a t i o n . Other camping demand studies include work done by McCurdy 14 and Mischon who tested 10 socioeconomic factors i n d i v i d u a l l y and i n a l l combinations with the number of nights people camped i n 1964 i n p r i v a t e campgrounds along the Ohio River. Using regression 2 a n a l y s i s , they reported an R of 0.0897. Thus only 9% of the v a r i a t i o n between the number of nights camped and the factors tested 15 2 (10) was explained. King obtained an R of 0.26 between the square.root of the days camped and 28 socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Evidently a majority of the v a r i a t i o n was associated with some other set of v a r i a b l e s than those he tested. The evidence from the l i t e r a t u r e suggests that socioeconomic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are r e l a t e d to the types of outdoor rec r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s a person chooses, and to the frequency with which he engaged i n these a c t i v i t i e s . However, a l l reported s t a t i s -t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s are weak. The large, unexplained variance may be a t t r i b u t a b l e to two f a c t o r s : either the s t a t i s t i c a l model i s D. R. McCurdy and R. M. Mischon, A Look at the Privat e Camp- ground User (Columbus, Ohio: U.S. Forest Service, 1965). "^D. A. King, O f f i c e Report (St. Paul, Minnesota: U.S. Forest Service Lake States Forest Experimental Station, 1964). j 32 i n c o r r e c t , o r t h e u n e x p l a i n e d v a r i a t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v a r i a b l e s n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s . M o s t r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e u s e d l i n e a r m o d e l s , i . e . , r e g r e s s i o n a n d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a n a l y s i s t o e x p l o r e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s o c i o e c o n o m i c v a r i a b l e s a n d p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s . B u t t h e r e l a t i o n -s h i p may n o t b e l i n e a r . T h i s p o s s i b i l i t y e x i s t s a n d s h o u l d b e e x p l o r e d r a t h e r t h a n m a k i n g t h e u n e x a m i n e d a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e l i n e a r . A s e c o n d c r i t i c i s m o f t h e t y p e s o f m a t h e m a t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s u s e d b y r e s e a r c h e r s i s t h a t p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s i n a c t i v i t i e s h a v e b e e n e i t h e r i n d e p e n d e n t l y r e l a t e d t o s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o r t h e y h a v e b e e n c o m b i n e d i n t o a n i n d e x w h i c h o b s c u r e s t h e i n d e p e n d e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e a c h a c t i v i t y . N e i t h e r m e t h o d i s s a t i s f a c t o r y . I w o u l d g u e s s t h a t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s make f e w s i n g l e a c t i v i t y t r i p s . R a t h e r , p e o p l e p r o b a b l y h a v e a s p e c t r u m o f i n t e r e s t s i n o u t d o o r a c t i v i t i e s ; t h e c h o i c e o f a n y o n e o r s e v e r a l a c t i v i t i e s c o u l d d e p e n d o n t h e s u p p l y a v a i l a b l e , t h e w e a t h e r , how c r o w d e d d e s i r e d f a c i l i t i e s a r e , e t c . To a n e x t e n t , o n e a c t i v i t y c a n b e s u b s t i t u t e d f o r a n o t h e r i f c o n d i t i o n s a r e f a v o u r a b l e . T h e r e -f o r e , t h e m e a s u r e m e n t o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s s h o u l d b e o n p a t t e r n s o f r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s w h i l e r e t a i n i n g a n i n d e p e n d e n t m e a s u r e m e n t p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n e a c h a c t i v i t y . T h e t h i r d r e a s o n f o r t h e w e a k s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s r e p o r t e d i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e c o u l d b e t h a t t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a n o t h e r s e t o f v a r i a b l e s . A r e p o r t o n a r e c e n t 33 16 r e c r e a t i o n a l conference at the National Academy of Sciences Summer Study Centre suggested that . . . s o c i o l o g i c a l v a r i a b l e s are being introduced into the models l e s s because of l o g i c a l considerations than because of what i s currently amenable to measurement. The cooperation of economists and behavioral s c i e n t i s t s i s needed i f more s p e c i f i c p r e d i c t i o n models are to be developed to show the demand for outdoor r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s and f a c i l i t i e s i n terms of quantity, q u a l i t y , and l o c a t i o n as a function of users' l o c a t i o n numbers, s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and pychological needs. In summary, p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates have been used to measure patterns of outdoor rec r e a t i o n use. P a r t i c i p a t i o n rates have been re l a t e d to selected socioeconomic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s on the assumption that future patterns of r e c r e a t i o n a l use can be predicted from the expected frequency changes i n socioeconomic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . However, a l l reported s t a t i s t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between p a r t i c i p a t i o n rates and socioeconomic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s have been weak. 3.3 Factors Which A f f e c t the P a r t i c i p a t i o n Rates of V i s i t o r s to Galiano Island I have used data from the case study to r e l a t e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s : i n 6 selected outdoor r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s to a set of selected socioeconomic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the v i s i t o r s National Academy of Sciences, A Program f o r Outdoor  Recreation Research (Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1969), p. 36. t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d . I h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f v i s i t o r s t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d a r e r e l a t e d t o t h e t y p e s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s t h e y e n g a g e i n w h i l e o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d . I n a g e n e r a l s e n s e , t h e s i x t e e n s o c i o e c o n o m i c v a r i a b l e s c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d a s p r e d i c t o r s ; s i m i l a r l y t h e o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s c a n b e r e g a r d e d a s c r i t e r i a v a r i a b l e s . T h e s a m p l e c h o s e n f o r a n a l y s i s c o n s i s t e d o f 49 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s . A l t h o u g h 139 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w e r e r e t u r n e d , o n l y 49 h a d c o m p l e t e a n d a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n f o r e a c h o f t h e 22 v a r i a b l e s f o r t h e v i s i t o r g r o u p . R a t h e r t h a n a t t e m p t t o i n t e r p r e t e r r o n e o u s r e s p o n s e s , I c h o s e t o e x c l u d e t h e m f r o m t h e s a m p l e . T h e f o l l o w i n g l i s t b r i e f l y d e s c r i b e s e a c h v a r i a b l e ; F i g u r e s 1 t o 7 i l l u s t r a t e t h e d a t a i n g r a p h i c f o r m . S o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d D e m o g r a p h i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ( P r e d i c t o r s ) 1 . T h e s i z e o f t h e v i s i t o r g r o u p . T h i s v a r i a b l e s i m p l y m e a s u r e s t h e number o f p e o p l e i n t h e g r o u p . 2 . T h e number o f p e r s o n s l e s s t h a n 1 y e a r o l d i n t h e g r o u p . 3 . T h e number o f p e r s o n s b e t w e e n 2 a n d 5 y e a r s o l d i n t h e g r o u p . 4 . T h e number o f p e r s o n s b e t w e e n 6 a n d 10 y e a r s o l d i n t h e g r o u p . 5 . T h e a v e r a g e a g e o f t h e g r o u p . T h e mean f o r e a c h a g e g r o u p o f t h e 7 a g e g r o u p s i n t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e w a s c a l c u l a t e d , m u l t i p l i e d b y t h e number o f p e r s o n s i n t h a t a g e c a t e g o r y , a n d d i v i d e d b y t h e t o t a l number o f p e r s o n s i n t h e g r o u p . F r e q u e n c y 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number o f P e r s o n s i n v i s i t o r g r o u p F i g u r e 1. F r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f g r o u p s i z e ( v a r i a b l e 1) F r e q u e n c y 0 1 Number o f c h i l d r e n l e s s t h a n 1 y e a r o l d i n t h e v i s i t o r g r o u p . F i g u r e 2 . F r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c h i l d r e n l e s s t h a n 1 y e a r 0 1 2 Number o f c h i l d r e n 2 - 5 y e a r s o l d i n t h e v i s i t o r g r o u p . F i g u r e 3 , F r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c h i l d r e n 2 - 5 y e a r s o l d . F r e q u e n c y 0 1 2 3 Number o f c h i l d r e n 6 - 1 0 y e a r s o l d i n t h e v i s i t o r g r o u p . F i g u r e 4 . F r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c h i l d r e n 6 - 1 0 y e a r s o l d F r e q u e n c y 10-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51"55 56"60 A v e r a g e a g e o f t h e g r o u p F i g u r e 5. F r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a g e g r o u p s . F r e q u e n c y 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 I n c o m e c a t e g o r y F i g u r e 6. F r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n c o m e c a t e g o r i e s ( S e e T a b l e I I , p . 4 0 ) . F r e q u e n c y 1 2 3 4 5 6 A c t i v i t i e s L e g e n d : A c t i v i t y -No. A c t i v i t y 1 G o i n g t o t h e b e a c h 2 C a m p i n g 3 B o a t i n g a n d f i s h i n g 4 H o r s e b a c k r i d i n g 5 G o l f 6 H i k i n g F i g u r e 7. F r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a c t i v i t i e s p u r s u e d b y v i s i t o r g r o u p s . 6 . T o t a l f a m i l y y e a r l y i n c o m e b e f o r e t a x e s . T h e i n c o m e s r e p o r t e d i n t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e w e r e a s s i g n e d a v a l u e f r o m 1 t o 9 a c c o r d i n g t o T a b l e I I . 7 . M a n a g e r i a l . 8 . P r o f e s s i o n a l a n d t e c h n i c a l . 9 . C l e r i c a l . 1 0 . S a l e s . 1 1 . S e r v i c e a n d r e c r e a t i o n . 1 2 . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n . 1 3 . L o g g e r s a n d r e l a t e d w o r k e r s . 1 4 . C r a f t s m e n , p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s , a n d r e l a t e d w o r k e r s . 1 5 . L a b o r e r s . 1 6 . S t u d e n t s , h o u s e w i v e s , r e t i r e d p e r s o n s ( d r a f t d o d g e r s ) . O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n A c t i v i t i e s ( C r i t e r i a ) 1 7 . G o i n g t o t h e b e a c h t o w a l k , s w i m , e x p l o r e , g a t h e r s h e l l s , • • , 1 8 p i c n i c , e t c . V a r i a b l e s 7 t o 16 a r e o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s , c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s ( D . B . S . ) c r i t e r i a . T h e D . B . S . s c a l e l i s t s 3 more c a t e g o r i e s : ( 1 ) f a r m e r s a n d f a r m w o r k e r s , ( 2 ) f i s h e r m e n , t r a p p e r s a n d h u n t e r s , ( 3 ) m i n e r s , q u a r r y m e n a n d r e l a t e d w o r k e r s . T h e s e t h r e e o c c u p a t i o n a l c a t e g o r i e s w e r e n o t r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e s a m p l e . E a c h o f t h e 10 o c c u p a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s c a n a s s u m e a v a l u e o f 1 o r 0 , i . e . , e i t h e r t h e r e s p o n d e n t i s e m p l o y e d i n a p r o f e s s i o n a l o r t e c h n i c a l c a p a c i t y ( v a r i a b l e 8 ) o r h e i s n o t . 18 V a r i a b l e s 17 t o 22 i n c l u s i v e w e r e a l s o t r e a t e d a s b i n a r y v a r i a b l e s w h i c h c o u l d a s s u m e a v a l u e o f e i t h e r 0 o r 1 . T h e v a l u e o f 1 w a s a s s i g n e d t o a n a c t i v i t y v a r i a b l e i f t h e r e s p o n d e n t p a r t i c i -p a t e d i n t h e a c t i v i t y , 0 i f h e d i d n o t . TABLE II VALUES ASSIGNED TO VARIABLE 6 ACCORDING TO INCOME CATEGORY Value f o r Variable 6 T o t a l Family Yearly Income before Taxes •1. 0 - 3,000 2. 3,001 - 4,999 3. 5,000 - 7,499 4. 7,500 - 9,999 5. 10,000 - 12,500 6. 12,501 - 15,000 7. 15,001 - 20,000 8. 20,001 - 25,000 9. 25,001 + Note: Income categories are not equal. Therefore, i n theory, each, income'category should be considered as a separate v a r i a b l e which can hold the values of 0 or 1; a 0 value simply indicates that the respondent does not f a l l i nto that income c l a s s while a value of 1 s i g n i f i e s that the respondent does f a l l i nto that income c l a s s . However, i n view of the small sample s i z e , I have treated income as a s i n g l e v a r i a b l e with the property of an i n t e r v a l s c a l e , i . e . , income category 9 i s 9 times larger than income category 1. Since t h i s i s not s t r i c t l y true, I w i l l take t h i s source of error into account when i n t e r p r e t i n g the r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s . 1 8 . Camp i n g o v e r n i g h t . 1 9 . B o a t i n g a n d f i s h i n g . 2 0 . H o r s e b a c k r i d i n g . 2 1 . G o l f . 2 2 . W a l k i n g o r h i k i n g ( n o t o n t h e b e a c h ) . 3 . 4 C a n o n i c a l C o r r e l a t i o n A n a l y s i s T h e h y p o t h e s i s was t e s t e d b y a c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s . T h e f o l l o w i n g d e s c r i p t i o n o f c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s e x t r e m e l y b r i e f . F o r a m o r e d e t a i l e d t r e a t m e n t t h e r e a d e r s h o u l d 19 20 c o n s u l t C o o l e y a n d L o h n e s a n d A n d e r s o n . C a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e s two s e t s o f m e a s u r e -m e n t s o f d i f f e r e n t p a r a m e t e r s o n t h e same e x p e r i m e n t a l s u b j e c t s . C a n o n i c a l a n a l y s i s y i e l d s l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s w h i c h a r e m a x i m a l l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . S e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f t h e two s e t s a r e p o s s i b l e . E a c h l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n o f p r e d i c t o r a n d d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s i s d e t e r m i n e d s o t h a t t h e s e t o f p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s i s m a x i m a l l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e s e t o f c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s , s u b j e c t t o t h e r e s t r i c t i o n t h a t t h e new c o m b i n a t i o n i s i n d e p e n d e n t o f ( n o t c o r r e l a t e d w i t h ) p r e v i o u s l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n s . W. W. C o o l e y a n d P . R. L o h n e s , M u l t i v a r i a t e P r o c e d u r e s f o r  t h e B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e s ( U . S . A . : J o h n W i l e y & S o n s I n c . , 1 9 6 6 ) . 20 T . W. A n d e r s o n , A n I n t r o d u c t i o n t o M u l t i v a r i a t e S t a t i s t i c a l  A n a l y s i s (New Y o r k : J o h n W i l e y & S o n s I n c . , 1 9 5 8 ) . 42 C a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s h a s b e e n u s e d t o r e l a t e two s e t s o f v a r i a b l e s . T h e a n a l y s i s a n s w e r e d t h e f o l l o w i n g two r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s : ( a ) " I s t h e p a t t e r n o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n 21 a c t i v i t i e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e c h o s e n s e t o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s ? " ( b ) " I n w h a t w a y s c a n w e i g h t s b e a s s i g n e d t o e a c h v a r i a b l e w i t h i n e a c h s e t t o make t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e s e t s a maximum?" T a b l e I I I c o n t a i n s t h e r e s u l t s p e r t i n e n t t o q u e s t i o n ( a ) . T h e maximum c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n R c o b t a i n e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s w a s 0.705 w h i c h i s n o t s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0.05 l e v e l o f p r o b a b i l i t y . T h e r e -f o r e t h e s e t o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s i s n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e c h o i c e o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . 3.5 D i s c u s s i o n o f t h e R e s u l t s T h e r e s u l t s o f t h e a n a l y s i s m u s t l e a d t o t h e r e j e c t i o n o f , t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s a r e r e l a t e d t o t h e c h o i c e o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . I h a v e o f f e r e d s e v e r a l e x p l a n a t i o n s w h i c h c o u l d a c c o u n t f o r t h e o b s e r v e d r e s u l t s . C o o l e y a n d L o h n e s d e s c r i b e a m e t h o d f o r t e s t i n g t h e s i g n i -f i c a n c e o f e a c h c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n (R ) . F i r s t t h e s t a t i s t i c _/\_ ( l a m b d a ) i s c a l c u l a t e d . T h e n " t h e X 2 a p p r o x i m a t i o n f o r t h e d i s t r i -b u t i o n o f p r o v i d e s a t e s t f o r t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t h e p v a r i a t e s a r e u n r e l a t e d t o t h e q v a r i a t e s . " ( C o o l e y a n d L o h n e s , p . 37). T h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f e a c h o f t h e m d i f f e r e n t l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n s c a n b e t e s t e d b y u s i n g t h e X 2 s t a t i s t i c . I f t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s c a n b e r e j e c t e d f o r o n e o r m o r e o f t h e s e l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f p r e d i c t o r a n d c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s , t h e r e s u l t s w i l l a l l o w s t a t i s t i c a l i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n a t a s p e c i f i e d l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . TABLE I I I CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS: SIGNIFICANCE TEST FOR 6 LINEAR COMBINATIONS OF PREDICTOR AND DEPENDENT VARIABLES % Tests of Successive Latent Roots Number of Roots Removed Corresponding Canonical R P 0 0.705 0.107 83.89 >0.05 1 0.664 0.212 58 .15 >0.05 2 0.613 0.380 36.30 >0.05 3 0.477 0.609 18.60 >0.05 4 0.386 0.788 8.93 >0.05 5 0.272 0.926 2.88 >0.05 44 (1) T h e m o s t o b v i o u s r e a s o n f o r r e j e c t i n g t h e h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e r e s i m p l y i s n o o v e r a l l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d t h e t y p e o f r e s o u r c e b a s e d a c t i v i t i e s t h a t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s p u r s u e o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d . H o w e v e r , t h i s c o n c l u s i o n may o n l y a p p l y t o t h e s p e c i f i c p r e d i c t o r a n d c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s w h i c h I h a v e c o n s i d e r e d . (2) A s e c o n d p o s s i b l e r e a s o n f o r t h e n e g a t i v e r e s u l t s o b s e r v e d i s t h a t t h e s a m p l e was t o o s m a l l . T h e l o w l e v e l o f a c c u r a c y a c h i e v e d i n s u c h a s m a l l s a m p l e c o u l d h a v e o b s c u r e d m o s t i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n p r e d i c t o r a n d c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s . ( 3 ) A . t h i r d r e a s o n f o r t h e o b s e r v e d n e g a t i v e r e s u l t s c o u l d b e t h e c o a r s e s c a l e o f m e a s u r e m e n t a c h i e v e d f o r some v a r i a b l e s , i . e . , a g e . P a r t i c u l a r l y , t h e m e a s u r e m e n t o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s c o u l d h a v e b e e n i m p r o v e d . I n t h e a n a l y s i s t h e m e a s u r e o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s o n l y r e -f l e c t e d t h a t t h e v i s i t o r h a d e n g a g e d i n s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s w h i l e o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d . No m e a s u r e o f t h e amount o f t i m e s p e n t i n e a c h a c t i v i t y w a s o b t a i n e d i n t h e c a s e . s t u d y . S i n c e t h e l e n g t h o f a v i s i t t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d v a r i e d b e t w e e n r e s p o n d e n t s , t h i s f a c t o r s h o u l d h a v e b e e n t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i n t h e m e a s u r e m e n t o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s . H o w e v e r , we d i d n o t f o r e s e e , t h i s d i f f i c u l t y i n d e s i g n i n g t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e . 45 T h e g e n e r a l r a n g e o f l i t e r a t u r e o n t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i n d i c a t e s t h a t r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e s u c c e e d e d i n d e f i n i n g o n l y t h e v e r y b r o a d e s t r e l a t i o n s h i p s . T h e c o n c l u s i o n s t y p i c a l l y i n c l u d e s t a t e m e n t s s u c h a s " Y o u n g e r p e o p l e t e n d t o p u r s u e m o r e a c t i v e p u r s u i t s t h a n o l d e r p e o p l e . " T h e s e f a c t s a r e o f t e n s e l f - e v i d e n t a n d r e q u i r e l i t t l e r e s e a r c h t o s u p p o r t t h e m . H o w e v e r , r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e n o t b e e n s u c c e s s f u l i n d e f i n i n g how m o r e s u b t l e d i f f e r e n c e s i n s o c i o e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d e t e r -m i n e c h o i c e s o f r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . T h e c a s e s t u d y p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s i s a c a s e i n p o i n t . A l l o f t h e a c t i v i t i e s t e s t e d w e r e r e s o u r c e - b a s e d a c t i v i t i e s a n d a l l c o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d a c t i v e r a t h e r t h a n p a s s i v e a c t i v i t i e s . I n f a c t i t w o u l d b e d i f f i c u l t t o d e s c r i b e b r o a d c r i t e r i a b y w h i c h t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s c o u l d b e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d i n t o two o r m o r e g e n e r a l l y d i s t i n c t c a t e g o r i e s . T h e a c t i v i t i e s w e r e t o o s i m i l a r i n t y p e t o e x p e c t t h a t t h e p e o p l e who p u r s u e d t h e m w o u l d e x h i b i t b r o a d d i f f e r e n c e s i n s o c i o e c o n o m i c o r d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s . One c o u l d a n t i c i p a t e t h a t s u b t l e d i f f e r e n c e s w o u l d e x i s t , b u t t h i s e x p e c t a t i o n was n o t c o n f i r m e d b y t h e a n a l y s i s . I am r e l u c t a n t t o d i s c a r d t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t I h a v e t e s t e d s o l e l y o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . T h e s t u d y w a s e x p l o r a t o r y a n d c o u l d b e r e f i n e d c o n s i d e r a b l y a l o n g t h e l i n e s t h a t I h a v e s u g g e s t e d i n t h i s d i s c u s s i o n . M e a s u r e m e n t s s h o u l d b e m o r e a c c u r a t e a n d t h e s a m p l e s i z e s h o u l d b e g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d . I n a d d i t i o n , I f e e l t h a t t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y s u i t e d t o t h e e x p l o r a t i o n o f t h i s t y p e o f p r o b l e m . T h i s s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e t a k e s i n t o a c c o u n t t h e i n t e r -a c t i o n b e t w e e n s e t s o f v a r i a b l e s r a t h e r t h a n c o n s i d e r i n g t h e i r s e p a r a t e e f f e c t s . T h e a d v a n t a g e o f c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s t h a t i t s h o w s how two s e t s o f v a r i a b l e s a r e r e l a t e d t o e a c h o t h e r a n d how t h e v a r i a b l e s w i t h i n e a c h s e t c o n t r i b u t e t o t h i s r e l a t i o n -s h i p . I t c a n b e u s e d t o i d e n t i f y c l u s t e r s o f p r e d i c t o r a n d c r i t e r i a v a r i a b l e s a n d . t o i d e n t i f y t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f e a c h . F o r e x a m p l e o n e m i g h t f i n d t h a t p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s i n p a r t i c u l a r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s c o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m a c o m b i n a t i o n o f s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t s o c i o e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f d i f f e r e n t i a l i m p o r t a n c e . T h i s k i n d o f r e s u l t w o u l d b e p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l i n e x p l a i n i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n r e c r e a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r a n d t h e p r e v a i l i n g s o c i a l a n d e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s . G o v e r n m e n t a g e n c i e s c o u l d t a k e a c c o u n t o f t h e s e r e s u l t s t o f o r e c a s t t h e p r o b a b l e s h i f t s i n p a t t e r n s o f c o n s u m p t i o n o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s a c c o r d -: i n g t o e x p e c t e d f r e q u e n c y c h a n g e s i n s o c i o e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . CHAPTER IV OUTDOOR RECREATION: FACTORS WHICH AFFECT THE AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF USERS 4.1 Overview In t h i s chapter I have discussed factors which a f f e c t the area l d i s t r i b u t i o n of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . I have examined (1) the kinds of a c t i v i t i e s which occur at various locations i n the land-scape, and (2) the r e l a t i v e frequencies with which s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s are pursued i n the landscape. From information taken from the case study I have attempted to r e l a t e observed v a r i a t i o n s i n the ar e a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s on Galiano Island with c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the landscape. To t h i s end I have constructed the hypothesis that the number of times any l o t area on Galiano Island was v i s i t e d can be predicted from measurements of three c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the l o t area: a c c e s s i b i l i t y , degree of develop-ment, and proximity to shoreline. Within t h i s general hypothesis, I have examined how e f f e c t i v e l y these three general c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s can be used to predict the number of times various l o t areas were v i s i t e d f o r a l l a c t i v i t i e s and for each of three s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s . 4.2 Recent L i t e r a t u r e Outdoor recreation involves the i n t e r a c t i o n between man and the environment. The nature of t h i s i n t e r a c t i o n v a r i e s according 48 t o t h e a c t i v i t y p u r s u e d . D e e r h u n t e r s s e e k d i f f e r e n t e n v i r o n m e n t s t h a n p i c k n i c k e r s ; c a m p i n g e n t h u s i a s t s may p r e f e r l a n d s c a p e s w h i c h a r e u n a t t r a c t i v e t o h i k e r s . T h e r a n g e o f l a n d s c a p e t y p e s w h i c h i s s u i t a b l e f o r v a r i o u s a c t i v i t i e s may b e b r o a d o r n a r r o w . H o w e v e r , i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s l o c a t e i n a r e a s w h i c h a r e b o t h a t t r a c t i v e a n d a m e n a b l e t o t h e t y p e s o f a c t i v i t i e s t h e y w i s h t o p u r s u e . T h e b r o a d a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e w h i c h a r e s u i t e d f o r s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s a r e s e l f - e v i d e n t . F o r i n s t a n c e i t i s i n t u i t i v e l y o b v i o u s t h a t c a m p e r s w o u l d n o t c h o o s e t o l o c a t e i n a swampy a r e a w h e r e a s n a t u r e s t u d y g r o u p s c o u l d f i n d a swampy a r e a s a t i s f y i n g t o t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r o b j e c t i v e s . B u t t h e s u b t l e d i f f e r e n c e s i n l a n d -s c a p e q u a l i t y , a s t h e y r e l a t e t o a p a r t i c u l a r r e c r , e a t i o n a c t i v i t y , a r e m o r e d i f f i c u l t t o d e f i n e . T h e way i n w h i c h we p e r c e i v e t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s may p r o v i d e i n s i g h t i n t o t h e a c t u a l n a t u r e o f t h e d i f f e r -e n c e s . T h e r e a c t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s t o t h e e n v i r o n m e n t h a s p l a y e d a l a r g e p a r t i n d e f i n i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l a r e a s . Many a r e a s c o n s i d e r e d t o b e " b e a u t i f u l " h a v e b e e n s e t a s i d e f o r p u b l i c p a r k s . H o w e v e r , l i t t l e i s k n o w n a b o u t t h e k i n d s o f s t i m u l i w h i c h e l i c i t t h i s r e s p o n s e i n t h e o b s e r v e r . T h e human p e r c e p t u a l e n v i r o n m e n t c o n s i s t s o f a l l e x t e r n a l s t i m u l i t o w h i c h a p e r s o n c a n r e s p o n d . T h e n o u r f i v e s e n s e s c a n a l l a c t a s r e c e p t o r s . f o r s t i m u l i p r o d u c e d b y t h e e n v i r o n m e n t . M o s t r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e c o n s i d e r e d v i s i o n t o b e t h e d o m i n a n t . s e n s e . The encounter or confrontation [with the environment] almost by d e f i n i t i o n involves perception, a perception that i s e s s e n t i a l l y v i s u a l . Having as primates subordinated our other sensory modes, we must now admit that we move i n a v i s u a l world and that our r e l a t i o n s h i p to i t - - o u r e c o l o g y - ^ i s i n part shaped by the nature and l i m i t a t i o n s of v i s i o n . Sight i s of c r u c i a l importance and probably influences our response to environments more d i r e c t l y and with greater salience than do our other senses.^3 Each landscape possesses a v i s u a l q u a l i t y which evokes a response i n the observer. Current research on the perceptual charac-t e r i s t i c s of landscapes assumes that human behavior can be explained i n terms of causes and conditions that are beyond the i n d i v i d u a l . Then i t should be possible to produce planned behavior patterns by manipulating the nature of the perceived object. But the "nature" of the perceived object has undergone many i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . One school of thought has concerned i t s e l f with spaces defined by objects i n the landscape as they are seen by, or a f f e c t , the 24 observer. L i t t o n suggested that the landscape could.be described by the following s i x f a c t o r s : distance, observer p o s i t i o n , form, s p a t i a l d e f i n i t i o n , l i g h t , and sequence. Within each of these f a c t o r s , he established subcategories representative of s p e c i f i c ranges i n the t o t a l v a r i a t i o n of each of the f a c t o r s . The scheme was applied to several landscapes, using d i f f e r e n t methods of 99 P. Shepard and D. McKinley, Editors * Preface to A. Port-mann, "The Seeing Eye" i n The Subversive Science (New York: Hougton M i f f l i n Co., 1969), p. 115. 23 E. L. Shafer, "Perception of Natural Environments," Environment and Behavior, (June, 1969), pp. 71-82, p. 71. 24 R. B. L i t t o n , J r . , Forest Landscape Descriptions and Inventories ( C a l i f o r n i a : U.S.D.A. Forest Service Research Paper PSW-49, 1968). n o t a t i o n . H o w e v e r , L i t t o n d i d n o t t e s t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s c h e m e a g a i n s t t h e b e h a v i o r a l r e s p o n s e o f p e o p l e t o t h e l a n d s c a p e . C o n -s e q u e n t l y , t h e v a l i d i t y o f h i s i d e a s r e m a i n s u n k n o w n . 25 T h i e l e x p l a i n e d t h e n a t u r e o f t h e v i s u a l e x p e r i e n c e i n t e r m s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e u s e d b y L i t t o n . T h i e l s t a t e d t h a t t h e " e x p e r i e n c e o f s p a c e r e s u l t s f r o m t h e v i s u a l p e r c e p t i o n o f l i g h t d e f i n e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n p o s i t i o n s a n d q u a l i t i e s o f s u r f a c e s , 26 s c r e e n s a n d o b j e c t s . " T h i e l d e s c r i b e d s u r f a c e s a s two d i m e n s i o n a l f o r m s , o b j e c t s a s t h r e e d i m e n s i o n a l f o r m s , a n d s c r e e n s a s p e r f o r a t e d s u r f a c e s o r c l o s e l y s p a c e d o b j e c t s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y T h i e l d i d n o t t r y t o q u a n t i f y t h e s e c o n c e i v e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s . N o r d i d h e r e l a t e h i s n o t a t i o n a l s c h e m e t o b e h a v i o r i a l p a t t e r n s a n d p r e f e r e n c e s . L i t t o n a n d T h i e l a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f many r e s e a r c h e r s i n t h e f i e l d o f a e s t h e t i c a p p r e c i a t i o n . T h e y t r i e d t o d e s c r i b e t h e n a t u r e o f t h e p e r c e i v e d o b j e c t . B u t t h e i r a n a l y s e s a r e m e r e o p i n i o n , e r u d i t e a s t h e y may a p p e a r , u n t i l a c t u a l l y t e s t e d o n o t h e r human b e i n g s . A l s o , t h e t e r m s w h i c h t h e y h a v e u s e d t o d e s c r i b e t h e l a n d -s c a p e a r e o n l y m a r g i n a l l y o p e r a t i o n a l f o r e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h . How d o e s o n e m e a s u r e t h e " l i g h t d e f i n e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n p o s i t i o n s a n d q u a l i t i e s o f s u r f a c e s , s c r e e n s a n d o b j e c t s ? " E v i d e n t l y r e s e a r c h -e r s m u s t r e s o r t t o m o r e p r o s a i c t e r m i n o l o g y b e f o r e t h e i r o p i n i o n s c a n b e a p p l i e d t o e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h o n t h e p e r c e i v e d e n v i r o n m e n t . P . T h i e l , "A S e q u e n c e - E x p e r i e n c e N o t a t i o n , " Town P l a n n i n g R e v i e w , X X X I I ( A p r i l , 1 9 6 1 ) , p p . 33-^52. 2 ^ I b i d . , p . 5 3 . Shafer correlated the number of v i s i t o r days spent i n various campgrounds i n the Adirondacks and four c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of each campground, (1) square feet of developed beach (2) square feet of water at the beach (3) t o t a l number of campsites (4) number of islands accessible by motorboat. . 2 The c o r r e l a t i o n analysis yielded an R of 0.96, an exceptionally high f i g u r e . The equation Shafer presented explains p r a c t i c a l l y a l l of the v a r i a t i o n i n campground use. Shafer states that "the v i s u a l aspects of a few environmental v a r i a b l e s can s i g n i f i c a n t l y explain how campers are attracted to Adirondack campgrounds." But i t could be argued that Shafer's choice of v a r i a b l e s r e f l e c t campground capacity more than v i s u a l q u a l i t y . In a crowded camping area l i k e the Adirondacks, campgrounds are usually f i l l e d to capacity. Shafer's r e s u l t s may simply mean that the i n t e n s i t y of campground usage i n the Adirondacks i s highly correlated with campground capacity. 28 A study done by Ungar contains the same conceptual error. Ungar t r i e d to devise an index of a t t r a c t i o n f or each Indiana State park by using multiple regression analysis to r e l a t e v i s i t s to the 27 E .L. Shafer and R.;C. Thompson, "Models that Describe Use of Adirondack Campgrounds," Forest Science, 14 (1968), pp. 383-391. 28 A. Ungar, T r a f f i c A t t r a c t i o n of Rural Outdoor Recreational  Areas (U.S.A.: National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report 44, 1967). 52 f a c i l i t i e s and natural c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the parks. He found that the best s i n g l e ' p r e d i c t o r of the number of v i s i t o r s to a park was the number of p i c n i c tables present. It i s hard to b e l i e v e that p i c n i c tables are the prime a t t r a c t i o n of Indiana State Parks. In areas where the demand for camping exceeds or matches the supply of campsites, campgrounds w i l l always be f i l l e d to capacity. Variables which r e f l e c t campsite capacity w i l l c o r r e l a t e highly with the number of campers. I t i s a mistake to construe these v a r i a b l e s as measurements of v i s u a l q u a l i t y . The number of s t i m u l i a r e c r e a t i o n i s t receives from the land-scape i s large indeed. I t i s d i f f i c u l t to measure the influence that one i s o l a t e d stimulus has on the i n d i v i d u a l . According to s c i e n t i f i c procedure the influence of one v a r i a b l e can be tested only by changing i t s value while keeping a l l other v a r i a b l e s constant. Consequently, i t i s v i r t u a l l y impossible to test the behavior of experimental subjects by using the natural environment as a laboratory. Means of laboratory simulation have been devised to overcome t h i s d i f f i c u l t y . 29 Shafer e t a l . used 8 x 10-inch black and white photographs to t e s t the r e a c t i o n of people to various landscapes. Respondents were asked to rate landscapes i n order of preference. Each photograph was given a preference score and r e l a t e d to measurements of d i f f e r e n t 29 E. L. Shafer et a l . , "Natural Landscape Preferences: A P r e d i c t i v e Model,"'J. of Leisure Research, 1 (1969), pp. 1-19. items i n the photographed landscape. These included measurements of the areas i n the photographs where d e t a i l of the vegetation could be seen, areas of non-vegetation, areas of water, etc. A regression analysis using preference scores as the dependent v a r i a b l e and measurements on the photograph as independent v a r i a b l e s y i e l d e d an 2 R of 0.55. Shafer tested the p r e d i c t i v e q u a l i t y of h i s equation by exposing people to another s e r i e s of landscape photos. He found that the equation d i d p r e d i c t "quite accurately" how people ranked other photos. But people may have responded to the medium of presentation as w e l l as the information content of the photographs. I t i s con-ceivable that a photograph of a p a r t i c u l a r landscape could e l i c i t an aesthetic response that people would not experience i f a c t u a l l y placed i n the landscape. While d i f f i c u l t , the r e s u l t s obtained by landscape simulation must be correlated with landscape preferences exhibited i n the f i e l d before the r e s u l t s can be f a i r l y applied to the r e c r e a t i o n a l planning process. This b r i e f review of recent research on the v i s u a l q u a l i t y of landscapes as i t a f f e c t s outdoor r e c r e a t i o n i s t s indicates that the exploration of environmental perception i s i n i t s infancy. It also shows that a large part of the research i s not relevant to the decisions r e c r e a t i o n planners have to make. The r e s u l t s are e i t h e r not operational or t h e i r meaning i s ambiguous. 54 4.3 Factors Which Influence the Areal D i s t r i b u t i o n of V i s i t o r s  to Galiano Island Postulated r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of any landscape and the response of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s to these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are d i f f i c u l t to prove from behavioral data. The fac t that recrea-t i o n i s t s locate t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s i n a p a r t i c u l a r section of the landscape does not mean that they are responding only to the v i s u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the s i t e they have chosen. Other f a c t o r s such as a c c e s s i b i l i t y to the area evidently have some influence on the l o c a t i o n of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . The problem i s to determine how much influence factors such.as a c c e s s i b i l i t y have i n explaining the ar e a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . If t h i s can be determined, the e f f e c t of factors such as a c c e s s i b i l i t y can be held constant and d i r e c t measurements of the v i s u a l q u a l i t y of the landscape can be tested against behavioral data. At t h i s point -, the r e s u l t s obtained i n f i e l d i n v e s t i g a t i o n s using behavioral data could be compared with laboratory simulation techniques such as photographs. However, the i n i t i a l step i n using behavioral data to measure preferences f or d i f f e r e n t landscape types must i s o l a t e the e f f e c t s of factors.other than the d i r e c t v i s u a l q u a l i t y of the landscape before more re f i n e d analyses can be made. The questionnaire administered to v i s i t o r s to Galiano Island was designed to show what l o t areas people v i s i t e d and what a c t i v i t i e s they pursued i n each l o t area. Information on 6 outdoor r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s was c o l l e c t e d . However, I have selected only 3 for consideration. These were (1) camping, (2) going to the beach, and (3) hi k i n g (not on the beach). Horseback r i d i n g was excluded from analysis because only two respondents reported that they had p a r t i c i -pated i n t h i s a c t i v i t y . G o l f i n g was excluded because i t depended on f a c i l i t i e s rather than natural resources. Boating and f i s h i n g were excluded because these a c t i v i t i e s are not conducted on the land surface. Each area could have been v i s i t e d for more than one recreation a c t i v i t y . The following 4 maps show the d i s t r i b u t i o n and i n t e n s i t y of r e c r e a t i o n a l use of surveyed l o t areas on Galiano Island f or (1) a l l v i s i t o r s , i r r e s p e c t i v e of a c t i v i t y , (2) persons who went to the beach, and (3) persons who went hiki n g (not on the beach) and (4) persons who went camping. I remind the reader that" one respondent could have engaged i n any or a l l of these a c t i v i t i e s . Therefore the t o t a l number of v i s i t s paid to a l l l o t areas i s larger than the number of respondents. I have postulated a general set of factors which could i n -fluence the d i s t r i b u t i o n of people i n the landscape regardless of the a c t i v i t y patterns chosen. They are (1) measures of a c c e s s i b i l i t y , (2) measures of development, and (3) measures of the perceived prox-imity to the shoreline. (1) A c c e s s i b i l i t y : A c c e s s i b i l i t y can be defined by a diverse number of measure-ments. Time, cost, convenience, and safety have a l l been used i n 60 v a r i o u s f o r m s . A l l f o u r f a c t o r s a r e i n t e r r e l a t e d ; t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f e a c h I s d i f f i c u l t t o a s s e s s . F o r t h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s a n a l y s i s I h a v e a s s u m e d t h a t d i s t a n c e i s t h e s i n g l e b e s t m e a s u r e o f a l l t h e s e f a c t o r s . A l l o f t h e v i s i t o r s i n c l u d e d i n t h e s u b s a m p l e w h i c h I h a v e u s e d o n t h i s t h e s i s a r r i v e d a t S t u r d i e s B a y , t h e m a i n f e r r y t e r m i n a l o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d . I h a v e a s s u m e d t h a t t h e t i m e , c o s t , c o n v e n i e n c e , a n d s a f e t y o f t r a v e l t o a n y l o t a r e a o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d i s p r o p o r t i o n a l t o i t s d i s t a n c e f r o m S t u r d i e s B a y . H o w e v e r , t h e r e I s o n e d i s c o n t i n u i t y w h i c h may i n f l u e n c e t h e a c c u r a c y , o f t h i s a s s u m p t i o n . O n l y t h e e a s t e r n e n d o f G a l i a n o I s l a n d i s s e r v e d b y a p a v e d h i g h w a y . T h e p a v e d r o a d g i v e s way t o a g r a v e l r o a d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 5 m i l e s e a s t o f S t u r d i e s B a y . T h e r e m a i n i n g 13 m i l e s t o t h e e a s t e r n e n d o f t h e i s l a n d w e r e e a s i l y p a s s i b l e t o o r d i n a r y v e h i c l e s i n t h e summer o f 1 9 6 9 , b u t t h e r i d e w a s n o t c o m f o r t a b l e . H o w e v e r , o w i n g t o t h e s h o r t d i s t a n c e s i n v o l v e d , I a s s u m e d t h a t t h i s d i s c o n t i n u i t y c o u l d b e o v e r l o o k e d . U n d e r t h e g e n e r a l h e a d i n g o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y , I h a v e a l s o i n -c l u d e d a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e n u m b e r o f m i l e s o f r o a d s u r f a c e , b o t h g r a v e l a n d h a r d t o p , c o n t a i n e d w i t h i n e a c h l o t . T h e g r e a t e r t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e p e r l o t a r e a t h e more " e x p o s u r e " t h e l o t h a s t o t h e v i s i t o r . S i n c e m o s t v i s i t o r s t r a v e l a l o n g r o a d s , t h e r e i s a h i g h e r p r o b a b i l i t y , a l l o t h e r f a c t o r s b e i n g c o n s t a n t , t h a t l o t a r e a s w i t h m o r e r o a d s u r f a c e w i l l b e v i s i t e d t h a n l o t a r e a s w i t h l i t t l e o r n o r o a d s u r f a c e . 6 1 2 . D e v e l o p m e n t A m e a s u r e m e n t o f t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h a l o t i s d e v e l o p e d i s i m p o r t a n t f o r two c o n s i d e r a t i o n s : (1) t h e r e i s a g r e a t e r p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t v i s i t o r s w i l l b e a t t r a c t e d t o d e v e l o p e d a r e a s f o r r e a s o n s w h i c h , i n i t i a l l y , a r e e x t e r n a l t o t h e i r i n t e r e s t s i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , a n d ( 2 ) t h e e x t e n t o f d e v e l o p m e n t c o u l d a c t a s a d e t e r r e n t t o t h e p u r s u i t o f r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n a n y l o t a r e a b e c a u s e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y o r l a n d i n a c c e s s i b l e t o t h e r e c r e a -t i o n i s t w i l l i n c r e a s e a s d e v e l o p m e n t i n c r e a s e s . T h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e i n d i c a t e d ( s e e q u e s t i o n 1 2 ) some p e o p l e came t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d t o v i s i t f r i e n d s who w e r e p r o p e r t y o w n e r s . I f s o , I h a v e a s s u m e d t h a t t h e s e v i s i t o r s w o u l d h a v e a g r e a t e r p r o b a b i l i t y o f p u r s u i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n t h e l o t a r e a t h a t c o n t a i n e d t h e p r o p e r t y o f a f r i e n d . A l s o , f r o m p e r s o n a l c o n v e r s a t i o n s w i t h v i s i t o r s t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d , t h e r e was e v i d e n c e t h a t a c e r t a i n n u m b e r o f p e o p l e came w i t h t h e i n t e n t i o n o f l o o k i n g f o r p r o p e r t y . M o s t o f t h e s a l e a b l e p r o p e r t y w a s l o c a t e d i n t h e d e v e l o p e d l o t a r e a s . T h e n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r g r o u p o f p e o p l e , b e c a u s e o f a n e x t e r n a l i n t e r e s t , may a l s o h a v e b e e n m o r e p r o n e t o p u r s u e r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n d e v e l o p e d a r e a s . H o w e v e r , a c o n f l i c t i n g p o s s i b i l i t y d o e s e x i s t ; r e c r e a t i o n i s t s who h a v e no e x t e r n a l i n t e r e s t i n l o t a r e a s may h a v e f o u n d t h a t d e v e l o p m e n t w a s i n d i r e c t c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e i r r e c r e a t i o n a l o b j e c t i v e s . T h e n t h e m o r e d e v e l o p e d l o t a r e a s may h a v e r e c e i v e d p r o p o r t i o n a l l y f e w e r v i s i t s . I h a v e n o t t r i e d t o s e p a r a t e t h e i n -f l u e n c e o f t h e s e two v a r i a b l e s i n t h e a n a l y s i s . I m e n t i o n t h e s e two c o n f l i c t i n g p o s s i b i l i t i e s only to a l e r t the reader that the extent of development of a l o t area could influence the d i s t r i b u t i o n of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s i n opposite ways, depending on the i n i t i a l purpose of t h e i r v i s i t . (3) Perceived Relationship to the Shoreline: I t seems i n t u i t i v e l y apparent that the si n g l e most a t t r a c t i v e feature of any small i s l a n d i s i t s shoreline. One might argue that t h i s p a r t i c u l a r measurement i s relevant only to those s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s which are conducted on the shoreline. However, the data suggests that most r e c r e a t i o n i s t s , regardless of the a c t i v i t y they pursued tended to locate i n areas which are near the shoreline, or at l e a s t o f f e r a view of the shoreline. S p e c i f i c measurements of a c c e s s i b i l i t y , development and proximity to shoreline were made and re l a t e d to the number of v i s i t s paid to each l o t area f o r the combined t o t a l of three r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . The s t a t i s t i c a l model used was regression a n a l y s i s . 4.4 Regression Analysis In discussing the r e s u l t s , I have assumed that the reader has a basic knowledge of regression a n a l y s i s . The technique.is common and has been documented i n most intermediate l e v e l s t a t i s t i c s texts. The sources which I found most useful were Blalock,"^ Cherukupalle'^ 'H. M. Blalock, S o c i a l S t a t i s t i c s (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1960). 31 Nirmala devi Cherukupalle, Regression Analysis : Interpreta- t i o n of Computer Output, etc. (University of B r i t i s h Columbia: mimeographed handout, 1969). 32 a n d B j e r r i n g . R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s t e s t s t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t v a r i a t i o n s i n a d e p e n d e n t ( c r i t e r i o n ) v a r i a b l e a r e a l i n e a r f u n c t i o n o f v a r i a t i o n s i n o n e o r m o r e i n d e p e n d e n t ( p r e d i c t o r ) v a r i a b l e s . T h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n t a k e s t h e g e n e r a l f o r m , y = a + b , x , + b . x „ + . . . . + b x . * • J 1 1 2 2 n n w h e r e y i s t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e , x ^ , x 2 , . . • . , x n a r e t h e i n d e p e n -d e n t v a r i a b l e s , b . , b „ , . . . . , b a r e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e 1 2 n r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , a n d a i s t h e p o i n t a t w h i c h t h e h y p e r p l a n e .... i n t e r c e p t s t h e y a x i s . T h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n ( b ' s ) a r e c o m p u t e d t o m i n i m i z e t h e sums o f s q u a r e s o f t h e d i f f e r -e n c e s b e t w e e n p r e d i c t e d v a l u e o f y a n d t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e s o f y . « A n a l y s i s T h e o b j e c t i v e o f t h e a n a l y s i s i s t o d e t e r m i n e ( 1 ) w h e t h e r a c c e s s i b i l i t y , d e v e l o p m e n t a n d p r o x i m i t y t o s h o r e l i n e , a s a s e t , c a n b e u s e d t o p r e d i c t t h e number o f v i s i t s p a i d t o e a c h l o t a r e a f o r a l l r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , a n d ( 2 ) t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f e a c h m e a s u r e m e n t f o r p r e d i c t i o n . T h e v a r i a b l e s u s e d i n t h e f i r s t m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a r e l i s t e d b e l o w . 32 J . H . B j e r r i n g e t a l . , UBC T r i p ( T r i a n g u l a r R e g r e s s i o n  P a c k a g e ) ( U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a : C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e , 1 9 6 9 ) . * L o w e r c a s e l e t t e r s , i . e . , x , y , h a v e b e e n u s e d t h r o u g h o u t t h i s c h a p t e r t o d e s c r i b e t h e g e n e r a l c a s e . U p p e r c a s e l e t t e r s a r e f r e q u e n t l y u s e d i n t e x t s . Dependent Var i a b l e : 1. The t o t a l number of v i s i t s paid to a surveyed l o t area over the duration of the study period. A t o t a l of 47 l o t s were v i s i t e d (see Map No. 2, p. 56). However, l o t 35 was excluded from the analysis because i t i s a p u b l i c park and received many more v i s i t s , p r o p o r t i o n a l l y , than any private l o t s . Thus the number of observations ( l o t s ) for the f i r s t analysis was 46. Independent Varia b l e s : 2. Length of road surface (hard top and gravel) per l o t area in.hundreds of f e e t . 3. Distance of l o t area from Sturdies Bay i n thousands of fe e t . •;4. Number of buildings per l o t area. 5. Length of road surface per l o t area that i s within 33 150 feet of the shoreline. The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s between the v a r i a b l e s used i n the analysis are presented i n Table IV. These can be divided into These measurements were taken from topographic maps of Galiano Island prepared by the Surveys and Mapping Branch of the Department of Lands, Forests and Water Resources of B r i t i s h Columbia. The scale of the maps was 1" = 1,320'. C u l t u r a l features were up-dated to June, 1969, on the M234 se r i e s of maps. I point out to the reader that not a l l l o t s contain pre-c i s e l y the same area, nor i s the configuration of t h e i r perimeters s i m i l a r . However, I have ignored t h i s factor i n the analysis because i t i s not r e l a t e d to user perception. 65 TABLE IV CORRELATION MATRIX: VARIABLES* USED IN THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF ALL VISITS (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) Variable Number 1 2 3 4 5 1 1.0 2 0.4990 1.0 3 Variable 4 Number 5 -0.0286 0.4409 0.5378 -0.2228 0.7141 0.5206 1.0 -0.3262 0.0801 1.0 0.4146 1.0 * Variable Number Name 1 Visits (combined total). 2 Length of road surface per lot; 3 Distance of lot from Sturdies Bay. 4 Number of buildings per lot. 5 Length of road surface within 150 feet of the shoreline. 66 two c a t e g o r i e s : t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a n d e a c h I n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ; t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s among t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . . A b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n o f c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s m a y . h e l p t h e r e a d e r i n t e r p r e t t h e r e s u l t s . S i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s i s a l w a y s u s e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a s a n a i d t o i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . S i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s d e s c r i b e s t h e s t r e n g t h o f a r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n 2 v a r i a b l e s . T h e s t a t i s t i c d e s c r i p t i v e o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p i s r , t h e P e a r s o n p r o d u c t - m o m e n t ' , c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t . T h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t c a n a s s u m e a n y v a l u e b e t w e e n +1 a n d - l . A c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t o f +1 i n d i c a t e s a p e r f e c t l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h a p o s i t i v e s l o p e , i . e . , f o r e v e r y u n i t i n c r e a s e i n v a r i a b l e x t h e r e i s a c o r r e s p o n d i n g u n i t i n c r e a s e i n v a r i a b l e ; y . S i m i l a r l y , a c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t o f - 1 d e s c r i b e s a p e r f e c t l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h a n e g a t i v e s l o p e , i . e . , f o r e v e r y u n i t i n c r e a s e i n x t h e r e i s a c o r r e s p o n d i n g u n i t d e c r e a s e i n v a r i a b l e ; y . A v a l u e o f 0 i n d i c a t e s t h a t n o l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n v a r i a b l e s x a n d y e x i s t s . V a l u e s o f r w h i c h f a l l b e t w e e n +1 a n d - 1 e x p l a i n a s u c c e s s i v e l y s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e v a r i a t i o n a s t h e y a p p r o a c h 0 . T a b l e I V s h o w s a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a n d t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e p e r l o t , t h e number o f c o t t a g e s p e r l o t a n d t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e w i t h i n 150 f e e t o f t h e s h o r e l i n e p e r l o t . H o w e v e r , t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s h o w s o n l y a w e a k n e g a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h t h e d i s t a n c e o f t h e l o t 67 f r o m S t u r d i e s B a y . T h e s e r e s u l t s s u g g e s t t h a t 3 o f t h e 4 i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e r e l a t e d t o t h e number o f v i s i t s p a i d t o e a c h l o t a r e a a n d t h e y m a y , a s a s e t , b e u s e d t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e o b s e r v e d v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . H o w e v e r , t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s t h e m s e l v e s , may b e i n t e r r e l a t e d . T h e y m a y , i n s t e a d o f b e i n g m e a s u r e s o f 3 i n d e p e n d e n t p a r a m e t e r s , b e i n t e r r e l a t e d . T h i s i n t r o d u c e s t h e p r o b l e m o f c o l l i n e a r i t y . I f two o r m o r e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d , t h e y a r e s a i d t o b e c o l l i n e a r , i . e . , t h e y do n o t h a v e i n d e p e n d e n t a n d a d d i t i v e e x p l a n a t o r y v a l u e a n d may i n f a c t b e d i f f e r e n t m e a s u r e -m e n t s o f t h e same p h e n o m e n o n . I f t h e s i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s b e t w e e n i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s e x c e e d t h e a b s o l u t e v a l u e . o f 0.7, c o l l i n e a r i t y d o e s e x i s t . I n g e n e r a l , t h e p r o b l e m o f c o l l i n e a r i t y i s n o t i m p o r t a n t i f t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n i s . t o . b e u s e d f o r p r e -d i c t i v e p u r p o s e s . B u t i f t h e r e s e a r c h e r w i s h e s t o make c a u s a l i n f e r e n c e s , h e may n o t b e a b l e t o s e p a r a t e o u t t h e e x p l a n a t o r y e f f e c t o f e a c h i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e i n a c o l l i n e a r s e r i e s . T h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s b e t w e e n t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s i n T a b l e I V show t h a t c o l l i n e a r i t y i s n o t a s e r i o u s p r o b l e m i n t h i s s e t o f d a t a . W i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s 2 a n d 4 ( l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e p e r . l o t a r e a a n d t h e number o f b u i l d i n g s p e r l o t a r e a ) t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s b e t w e e n t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s do n o t e x c e e d ±0.7. V a r i a b l e s 2 a n d 4 b o t h a p p e a r t o b e m e a s u r e m e n t s o f t h e e x t e n t o f d e v e l o p m e n t o f l o t a r e a s . 68 A m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s u s i n g t h e same s e t o f v a r i a b l e s 2 2 y i e l d e d a n R o f 0 . 3 6 2 8 . T h e R v a l u e I s c a l l e d t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f m u l t i p l e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n . T h i s c o e f f i c i e n t s t a t e s how much o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e w a s a c c o u n t e d f o r b y t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , a s a s e t . I n t h i s c a s e 36% o f t h e o b s e r v e d v a r i a t i o n i n t h e number o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s w a s a c c o u n t e d f o r b y v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e 4 i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . 2 T h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e v a l u e f o r R I s d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e F -p r o b a b i l i t y f o r t h e e q u a t i o n . T h i s i s m e r e l y a m e a s u r e m e n t o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e o b s e r v e d r e s u l t s c o u l d h a v e h a p p e n e d b y c h a n c e . I n t h i s a n a l y s i s t h e F - p r o b a b i l i t y f o r t h e e n t i r e e q u a t i o n w a s 0 . 0 0 0 6 , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e o b s e r v e d r e s u l t s c o u l d h a v e h a p p e n e d b y s h e e r c h a n c e - l e s s t h a n 1 t i m e i n 1 0 0 0 . T h u s t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0 . 0 0 1 l e v e l o f p r o b a b i l i t y . T a b l e V c o n t a i n s t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s ( b ' s ) f o r t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n a l o n g w i t h t h e F - r a t i o a n d a s s o c i a t e d p r o b a b i l i t y f o r e a c h . T h e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e t h e r e l a t i v e w e i g h t s g i v e n t o e a c h v a r i a b l e i n t h e e q u a t i o n . T h e d a t a I u s e d a r e n o t s t a n d a r d i z e d a n d t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e w e i g h t s g i v e n t o e a c h v a r i a b l e i s n o t r e a d i l y a p p a r e n t b e c a u s e o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n u n i t s . H o w e v e r , a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e e q u a t i o n w i l l c l a r i f y t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a l u e o f e a c h v a r i a b l e . I h a v e s u b s t i t u t e d t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e s o f e a c h i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e f o r l o t 33 i n t h e e q u a t i o n b e l o w t o o b t a i n t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e o f y ( y ) . 69 TABLE V MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RESULTS FOR ALL VISITS (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) Va r i a b l e * C o e f f i c i e n t Standard Error F-Ratio F - P r o b a b i l i t y 2 0.0198 0.0161 1.5079 0.2241 3 0.0036 0.0135 0.0720 0.7795 4 0.0215 0.0299 0.5184 0.4820 5 0.1815 0.0756 5.7569 0.0198 Constant 1.8832 0.7311 * Variable Number Name 1 V i s i t s (combined t o t a l ) . 2 Length of road surface per l o t . 3 Distance of l o t from Sturdies Bay. • 4 Number of buildings per l o t . 5 Length of road surface within 150 feet of the shoreline. y = 1 . 8 8 3 2 + 0 . 0 1 9 8 X 2 + 0 . 0 0 3 6 X 3 + 0 . 0 2 1 5 X 4 + 0 . 1 8 1 5 X^ y = 1 . 8 8 3 2 + 0 . 0 1 9 8 ( 8 7 ) + 0 . 0 0 3 6 ( 2 1 6 ) + 0 . 0 2 1 5 (17) + 0 . 1 8 1 5 ( 2 0 ) y = 1 . 8 8 3 2 + 1 . 7 2 + 0 . 7 8 + 0 . 3 6 + 3 . 6 2 y = 8 . 3 1 T h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e f o r y ( l o t a r e a 3 3 ) w a s 13 v i s i t s . V a r i a b l e 5 ( t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e p e r l o t a r e a t h a t i s w i t h i n 150 f e e t o f t h e s h o r e l i n e ) c o n t r i b u t e s m o s t t o t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e of y, f o l l o w e d b y v a r i a b l e 2 ( t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e , h a r d t o p a n d g r a v e l , p e r l o t a r e a i n h u n d r e d s o f f e e t ) . T h e o t h e r two i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s (3 a n d 4 ) a p p e a r t o h a v e l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e o n t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e o f y . T h e F - p r o b a b i l i t i e s f o r t h e r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i n t h i s e q u a t i o n ( T a b l e V , p . 6 9 ) show t h a t o n l y v a r i a b l e 5 i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m 0 a t t h e 0 . 0 5 l e v e l o f p r o b a b i l i t y a n d t h a t v a r i a b l e 2 , a l t h o u g h n o t s i g n i f i c a n t , i s c l o s e r t o b e i n g s i g -n i f i c a n t t h a n v a r i a b l e s 3 a n d 4 . T h u s t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e o f y i s d e t e r m i n e d l a r g e l y b y t h e c o n s t a n t t e r m i n t h e e q u a t i o n ( 1 . 8 8 3 2 ) a n d v a r i a b l e 5 . T h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o a n y l o t a r e a f o r a l l a c t i v i t i e s c a n b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m m e a s u r e s o f a c c e s s i -b i l i t y , d e v e l o p m e n t a n d p r o x i m i t y t o s h o r e l i n e i s a c c e p t a b l e a t t h e 0 . 0 0 1 l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . B u t t h e a n a l y s i s h a s c o n t r i b u t e d l i t t l e t o t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h g e n e r a l l y i n f l u e n c e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d . T h e d e p e n d e n t 71 v a r i a b l e ( t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s ) h a d a s m a l l r a n g e d u e t o t h e s m a l l number o f r e s p o n d e n t s . T h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e was o n l y 3 . 1 2 5 w i t h a s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n ± 1 . 8 0 3 . T h u s t h e v a l u e w h i c h y a s s u m e d f e l l b e t w e e n 0 . 3 2 2 a n d 5 . 9 2 8 i n a p p r o x i m a t e l y 66% o f t h e o b s e r v e d c a s e s . T h e v a l u e o f t h e c o n s t a n t a l o n e ( 1 . 8 8 3 2 ) w o u l d p l a c e t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e o f y i n t h i s r a n g e . T h e s m a l l s a m p l e s i z e a n d t h e s m a l l v a r i a t i o n i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e p r o d u c e d r e s u l t s w h i c h h a v e l i t t l e i n t e r p r e t i v e v a l u e . T h e p r e c e d i n g a n a l y s i s t e s t e d t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t v i s i t s t o l o t a r e a s f o r a l l a c t i v i t i e s i n c o m b i n a t i o n c a n b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m m e a s u r e m e n t s o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y , d e v e l o p m e n t a n d p r o x i m i t y t o s h o r e l i n e . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n I h a v e n a r r o w e d t h i s h y p o t h e s i s t o t e s t w h e t h e r v i s i t s t o l o t a r e a s f o r e a c h o f 3 s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s , h i k i n g , c a m p i n g a n d g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h , c a n b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m t h e same i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . T h r e e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s w e r e p e r f o r m e d u s i n g t h e same f o u r i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a n d t h e f o l l o w -i n g 3 d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s : (1) t h e number o f t i m e s l o t a r e a s w e r e v i s i t e d f o r " g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h " , ( 2 ) t h e number o f t i m e s l o t a r e a s w e r e v i s i t e d f o r " c a m p i n g " , a n d ( 3 ) t h e number o f t i m e s l o t a r e a s w e r e v i s i t e d f o r " h i k i n g " . ( 1 ) " G o i n g t o t h e B e a c h " T h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s ( T a b l e V I ) b e t w e e n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ( v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f " g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h " ( s e e Map N o . 3 , p . 57)) a n d t h e 4 i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o b t a i n e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s a n a l y s i s . T h e d e p e n d e n t 72 TABLE VI CORRELATION MATRIX: VARIABLES* USED IN THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF'VISITS' TO THE BEACH (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) 1 2 3 4 5 1 1.0 2 0.5963 1.0 3 -0.0839 -0.1740 1.0 4 0.4984 0.7450 -0.3458 1.0 5 0.6244 0.5380 0.1824 0.3322 1.0 * Variable Number Name 1 V i s i t s ("Going to the Beach"). 2 Length of road surface per l o t . 3 Distance of l o t from Sturdies Bay. 4 Number of buil d i n g s per l o t . 5 Length of road surface within 150 feet of the shoreline. 73 v a r i a b l e i s p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e p e r l o t a r e a , t h e number o f b u i l d i n g s p e r l o t a r e a a n d t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e w i t h i n 150 f e e t o f t h e s h o r e l i n e p e r l o t a r e a . T h e d i s t a n c e o f t h e l o t f r o m S t u r d i e s B a y s h o w s a w e a k n e g a t i v e c o r r e -l a t i o n w i t h t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . 2 T h e R o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n was 0 . 5 0 . T h e r e f o r e t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s e x p l a i n e d 50% o f t h e o b s e r v e d v a r i a t i o n i n t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s f o r " g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h . " T h e o v e r a l l F - p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n was 0 . 0 0 0 7 ; t h e r e s u l t s c o u l d h a v e o c c u r r e d b y c h a n c e l e s s t h a n 1 t i m e i n 1 , 0 0 0 . T h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0 . 0 0 1 l e v e l o f p r o -b a b i l i t y e v e n t h o u g h o n l y 26 o b s e r v a t i o n s w e r e c o n s i d e r e d . A s i n t h e p r e v i o u s a n a l y s i s t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n h a s p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e b u t l i t t l e e x p l a n a t o r y v a l u e . V a r i a b l e 5 i s t h e o n l y r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t ( T a b l e V I I ) t h a t d i f f e r s s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m 0 a t t h e 0 . 0 5 l e v e l o f p r o b a b i l i t y . V a r i a b l e 5 ( t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e w i t h i n 150 f e e t o f t h e s h o r e l i n e p e r l o t a r e a ) i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h t h e c o n s t a n t i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n ( 2 . 1 4 5 8 ) a c c o u n t f o r m o s t o f t h e o b s e r v e d v a r i a t i o n i n t h e number o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s . T h e mean o b s e r v e d v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e w a s 3 . 0 0 0 w i t h a s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f 1 . 9 1 8 . T h e r e f o r e , 66% o f t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e s o f y f e l l b e t w e e n 1 . 0 8 2 a n d 4 . 9 1 8 . T h e c o n s t a n t v a l u e i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n a l o n e ( 2 . 1 4 5 8 ) p u t t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e o f y w i t h i n t h i s r a n g e . I t i s s i g n i f i c a n t t h a t o f t h e 26 l o t a r e a s i n c l u d e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s , 15 d i d n o t h a v e a n y r o a d s u r f a c e 74 TABLE VII MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RESULTS FOR VISITS TO THE BEACH (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) Var i a b l e * C o e f f i c i e n t Standard Error F-Ratio F - P r o b a b i l i t y 2 0.0119 0.0146 0.6669 0.4283 3 -0.0054 0.0119 0.2096 0.6553 4 0.0145 0.0227 0.4103 0.5355 5 0.1319 0.0538 6.0155 0.0220 Constant 2.1458 0.6716 * Variable Number Name 1 V i s i t s ("Going.to the Beach"). 2 Length of road surface per l o t . 3 Distance of l o t from Sturdies Bay. 4 Number of buildings per l o t . 5 Length of road surface within 150 feet of the shoreline. 75 w i t h i n 150 f e e t o f t h e s h o r e l i n e . F o r t h e s e 15 l o t a r e a s , t h e p r e -d i c t e d v a l u e o f y was l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e v a l u e o f t h e c o n s t a n t a n d m i n o r v a l u e s a d d e d b y v a r i a b l e s 3 a n d 4. T h i s a n a l y s i s s h o w s o n l y a s l i g h t d i v e r g e n c e f r o m t h e r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s a n a l y s i s w h e r e t h e c o m b i n e d n u m b e r o f v i s i t s f o r h i k i n g , c a m p i n g a n d g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h w a s t r e a t e d a s t h e d e p e n -d e n t v a r i a b l e . One o f t h e r e a s o n s f o r t h e s i m i l a r i t y b e t w e e n t h e t w o r e s u l t s i s t h a t 42 o f t h e t o t a l o f 84 v i s i t s p a i d t o 46 l o t a r e a s w e r e f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f " g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h " . T h u s 50% o f t h e c o m b i n e d s a m p l e o f v i s i t s p a i d t o a l l l o t a r e a s w a s made f o r t h e s i n g l e p u r p o s e o f g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h . (2) C a m p i n g O n l y 14 a r e a s ( s e e Map N o . 4, p . 58) w i t h t h e e x c l u s i o n o f a r e a 35, w e r e v i s i t e d f o r c a m p i n g . T h e r e s u l t s o f t h e a n a l y s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e s V I I I a n d I X . T h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s h o w s l o w c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s w i t h a l l o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . T h e F - p r o b a b i l i t y f o r t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n i s 0.59, i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e r e s u l t s a r e i n s i g n i f i c a n t . N o n e o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t ( T a b l e I X ) . (3) H i k i n g T h e number o f l o t a r e a s t h a t w e r e v i s i t e d f o r h i k i n g i s 30 ( s e e Map N o . 5, p . 59). T h e r e s u l t s o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e s X a n d X I . A g a i n , t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s h o w s no s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h a n y o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . TABLE VIII CORRELATION MATRIX: VARIABLES* USED IN THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VISITS FOR CAMPING (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) Variable Number 1 2 3 4 5 1.0 -0.2645 0.4840 -0.2893 -0.2537 Variable Number •1.0 -0.5574 0.8802 0.8218 1.0 -0.6865 -0.4246 1.0 0.5657 1.0 * Variable Number Name 1 V i s i t s (camping). 2 Length of road surface per l o t . 3 Distance of l o t from Sturdie's Bay. 4 Number of buildings per l o t . 5 Length of road surface w i t h i n 150 feet of the shoreline. > 77 TABLE IX MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RESULTS FOR VISITS FOR CAMPING (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) Va r i a b l e * C o e f f i c i e n t Standard Error F-Ratio F - P r o b a b i l i t y 2 -0.0002 0.0175 0.0002 0.9360 3 0.0176 0.0139 1.5989 0.2367 4 0.0036 0.0225 0.0263 0.8483 5 -0.0101 0.0696 0.0211 0.8586 Constant 0.7808 0.5529 * Variable Number Name 1 V i s i t s (camping). 2 Length of road surface per l o t . 3 Distance of l o t from Sturdies Bay. 4 Number of buildings per l o t . 5 Length of road surface within 150 feet of the shoreline. 78 TABLE X CORRELATION MATRIX: VARIABLES* USED IN THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VISITS FOR HIKING (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1.0 -0.1393 -0.2506 0.1565 0.0858 1.0 -0.3161 0.7045 0.4974 1.0 -0.3573 0.0514 1.0 0.4262 1.0 * Variable Number Name 1 V i s i t s (hiking). 2 Length of road surface per l o t . 3 Distance of l o t from Sturdies Bay. 4 Number of buildings per l o t . 5 Length of road surface w i t h i n 150 feet of the shoreline. TABLE XI MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RESULTS FOR VISITS FOR HIKING (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) Var i a b l e * C o e f f i c i e n t Standard Error F-Ratio F - P r o b a b i l i t y 2 -0.0002 0.0091 0.0005 0.9298 3 -0.0085 0.0076 1.2709 0.2699 4 0.0022 0.0167 0.0180 0.8637 5 0.0144 0.0393 0.1348 0.7153 Constant 2.0748 0.4856 Name V i s i t s (hiking). Length of road surface per l o t . Distance of l o t from Sturdies Bay. Number of buildings per l o t . Length of road surface within 150 feet of the shoreline. * Variable Number 1 2 3 4 5 80 O n l y 7% o f t h e o b s e r v e d v a r i a n c e i n y w a s a c c o u n t e d f o r b y t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . T h e F p r o b a b i l i t y f o r t h e o v e r a l l e q u a t i o n was 0.74, i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e r e s u l t s a r e h i g h l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t . 4.5 D i s c u s s i o n o f t h e R e s u l t s T h e m e a s u r e m e n t s o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y , d e v e l o p m e n t a n d p r o x i m i t y t o s h o r e l i n e w h i c h I p r o p o s e d do n o t s a t i s f a c t o r i l y e x p l a i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d , e i t h e r g e n e r a l l y , o r f o r s p e c i f i c a c t i v i t i e s . I n two c a s e s , (1) a l l v i s i t o r s c o m b i n e d , a n d (2) b e a c h g o e r s o n l y , t h e s e f o u r g e n e r a l m e a s u r e m e n t s d i d s i g -n i f i c a n t l y a c c o u n t f o r t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s . T h e p r e d i c t i v e q u a l i t y o f b o t h s i g n i f i c a n t e q u a t i o n s w a s p r i m a r i l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o v a r i a b l e 5, t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e w i t h i n 150 f e e t o f t h e s h o r e l i n e . T h e a n a l y t i c v a l u e o f r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s c a n b e e x t e n d e d b y p l o t t i n g r e s i d u a l v a l u e s . T h e s e v a l u e s a r e t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e s o f y a n d t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f y ( y ) o b t a i n e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s . T h e p l o t o f t h e r e s i d u a l v a l u e s s h o w s w h e r e t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , a s a s e t , e i t h e r o v e r e s t i m a t e d t h e o b s e r v e d v a l u e o f y . T h e a r e a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e s e r e s i d u a l v a l u e s o f t e n p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t i n t o t h e n a t u r e o f o t h e r v a r i a b l e s w h i c h c o u l d a c c o u n t f o r some o f t h e u n e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . Two p l o t s o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s a r e s h o w n o n M a p s 6 a n d 7. Map number 6 s h o w s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e o b s e r v e d n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s f o r t h e c o m b i n e d t o t a l o f 3 a c t i v i t i e s a n d t h e 83 number o f v i s i t s p r e d i c t e d b y t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n . Map number 7 s h o w s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e o b s e r v e d number o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h a n d t h e number o f v i s i t s p r e d i c t e d b y t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n . T h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s o b s e r v e d o n b o t h maps p r o v i d e s l i t t l e a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n . I n g e n e r a l , c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s a r e l o w e r t h a n o b s e r v e d v a l u e s f o r h e a v i l y v i s i t e d a r e a s a n d v i c e v e r s a . T h i s t r e n d may m e r e l y r e f l e c t t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n i s m o r e a c c u r a t e a r o u n d t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t h a n i t i s f o r e x t r e m e v a l u e s o f y , i . e . , t h e e r r o r a s s o c -i a t e d w i t h t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f y i n c r e a s e s a s t h e d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e mean o b s e r v e d v a l u e o f y i n c r e a s e s . S e v e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s c a n b e d r a w n f r o m t h e p r e c e d i n g a n a l y s e s . F i r s t , t h e a n a l y s e s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e d i s t a n c e o f t h e l o t a r e a f r o m S t u r d i e s B a y d o e s n o t a f f e c t t h e i n t e n s i t y o f r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e o n v a r i o u s p a r t s o f G a l i a n o I s l a n d . T h i s i s p r o b a b l y d u e t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e o v e r a l l l e n g t h o f G a l i a n o I s l a n d i s o n l y 18 m i l e s . D i s t a n c e i s n o t a d e t e r r e n t t o r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e o n s u c h a s m a l l l a n d a r e a . S e c o n d l y , t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e c o n t a i n e d w i t h i n a l o t a r e a a l s o d o e s n o t h a v e a n e f f e c t o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e . I h a d p o s t u l a t e d t h a t t h e l e n g t h o f r o a d s u r f a c e p e r l o t a r e a d e t e r m i n e s how much o f t h e l o t a r e a i s e x p o s e d t o t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t a n d t h a t t h i s w o u l d a f f e c t t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f v i s i t a t i o n . I s t i l l b e l i e v e t h a t t h i s p o s t u l a t e i s v a l i d i n g e n e r a l s e n s e ; b u t t h e s p e c i f i c m e a s u r e m e n t t h a t I u s e d i s n o t a d e q u a t e . I n s t e a d , m e a s u r e m e n t s o f t h e " s c e n i c q u a l i t y " o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e v i s i b l e f r o m t h e r o a d s h o u l d b e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t . T h i r d l y , t h e m e a s u r e m e n t w h i c h I u s e d t o d e s c r i b e d e v e l o p m e n t ( t h e n u m b e r o f b u i l d i n g s p e r l o t a r e a ) a l s o seemed t o h a v e l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . E a r l i e r i n t h i s c h a p t e r I s u g g e s t e d t h a t d e v e l o p m e n t c o u l d e i t h e r a c t a s a n a t t r a c t a n t o r r e p e l l a n t t o r e c r e a t i o n i s t s d e p e n d i n g o n t h e i r i n i t i a l p u r p o s e i n v i s i t i n g a l o t a r e a . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t b o t h o f t h e s e f a c t o r s w e r e o p e r a t i v e a n d t h a t , i n c o m b i n a t i o n , n o n e t e f f e c t w a s o b s e r v e d . A l s o , a m e a s u r e o f t h e number o f b u i l d i n g s p e r l o t a r e a d o e s n o t a c c o u n t f o r t h e i r d i s t r i b u t i o n i n a l o t a r e a . I n c a s e s w h e r e a l l d e v e l o p m e n t w a s c o n c e n t r a t e d i n o n e s e c t i o n o f t h e l o t a r e a , i t i s q u i t e p o s s i b l e t h a t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s a c t u a l l y u s e d t h e u n d e v e l o p e d s e c t i o n . Y e t t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y w a s n o t a c c o u n t e d f o r i n t h e a n a l y s e s . M e a s u r e m e n t s o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n a n d i n t e n s i t y o f d e v e l o p m e n t i n a l o t a r e a m u s t b e c o n s i d e r e d . I n s u m m a r y , t h e f o u r m e a s u r e m e n t s w h i c h I u s e d i n t h e p r e -c e d i n g a n a l y s e s d i d n o t s a t i s f a c t o r i l y e x p l a i n t h e o b s e r v e d v a r i a t i o n i n t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t a r e a s . T h e o b s e r v e d v a r i a t i o n m u s t b e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a n o t h e r s e t o f v a r i a b l e s . I w o u l d e x p e c t t h a t t h e s e v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e t h e a c t u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e l a n d -s c a p e i t s e l f . I h a v e made some s u g g e s t i o n s i n t h e n e x t c h a p t e r a s t o how t h e s e c o u l d b e m e a s u r e d . CHAPTER V SUMMARY: DIRECTIONS FOR RESEARCH 5.1 Summary o In t h i s t h e s i s I have made an examination of the factors which influence the r e c r e a t i o n i s t s ' response to the resource base. These factors were divided into two categories, i n t e r n a l f a c t o r s and ex-t e r n a l f a c t o r s . Internal factors include a l l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the i n d i v i d u a l including age, sex, previous experience, occupation, income, etc. , which influence h i s response to outdoor environments. External factors i n c l u d e . a l l s t i m u l i from the landscape.to which the perceiver can respond. Both d e f i n i t i o n s encompass a large possible number of measurements. Within each of the broad possible ranges of i n t e r n a l and external f a c t o r s , I selected a few f o r examination. The s e l e c t i o n was guided by the work of other researchers wherever pos s i b l e , but a large part of the choice had to be i n t u i t i v e . I assumed that the i n t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of an i n d i v i d u a l determine h i s response to a given outdoor environment. Operationally, i n t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were defined as a selected set of socio-eco-nomic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ; response was defined by the types of a c t i v i t i e s that were pursued during the v i s i t . I hypothesized that the types and frequencies with which 6 s p e c i f i e d outdoor re c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s were pursued by v i s i t o r s to Galiano Island could be pre-d i c t e d from t h e i r socioeconomic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Canonical c o r r e l a t i o n analysis was used to test the hypothesis. The a n a l y s i s p r o v i d e d s e t s o f l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n s o f p r e d i c t o r ( s o c i o -e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c ) v a r i a b l e s w h i c h w e r e m a x i m a l l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h s e t s o f c r i t e r i o n ( a c t i v i t y ) v a r i a b l e s . N o n e o f t h e r e p o r t e d l i n e a r c o m b i n a t i o n s w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0 . 0 5 l e v e l o f p r o b a b i l i t y T h e r e f o r e t h e h y p o t h e s i s w a s r e j e c t e d . S e c o n d l y , I a r g u e d t h a t t h e e x t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e l a n d s c a p e c o u l d b e u s e d t o e x p l a i n t h e number o f t i m e s l a n d a r e a s w e r e v i s i t e d b y r e c r e a t i o n i s t s f o r s p e c i f i e d t y p e s o f u s e . U s a g e w a s o p e r a t i o n a l l y d e f i n e d a s t h e f r e q u e n c y o f v i s i t s t o l o t a r e a s ; e x t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e l a n d s c a p e w e r e d e f i n e d a s 4 m e a s u r e -m e n t s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e a c c e s s i b i l i t y , d e v e l o p m e n t , a n d p r o x i m i t y t o w a t e r o f v i s i t e d l o t a r e a s . I p r o p o s e d t h a t t h i s s e t o f e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s w o u l d e x p l a i n . t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a l l r e c r e a t i o n i s t s , r e g a r d -l e s s o f t h e p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h t h e y e n g a g e d i n . To t h i s e n d I h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o a l o t a r e a o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d c o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m t h e a c c e s s i b i l i t y , d e v e l o p -m e n t , a n d p r o x i m i t y t o w a t e r o f t h a t l o t a r e a . T h e s t a t i s t i c a l m o d e l u s e d w a s m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . T h e p r e d i c t i v e e q u a t i o n o b t a i n e d w a s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 0 . 0 0 1 l e v e l o f p r o b a b i l i t y b u t h a d l i t t l e a n a l y t i c v a l u e . N e x t , I e x a m i n e d b y m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s w h e t h e r t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o a l o t a r e a f o r e a c h o f 3 s p e c i f i c o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s ( g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h , h i k i n g , c a m p i n g ) c o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m t h e same s e t o f e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s . S i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s w e r e o b t a i n e d f o r t h e n u m b e r o f v i s i t s p a i d t o l o t s f o r " g o i n g t o t h e b e a c h " . T h e p r e d i c t i v e 87 e q u a t i o n s f o r h i k i n g a n d c a m p i n g w e r e n o t s i g n i f i c a n t . A g a i n , t h e s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p h a d l i t t l e a n a l y t i c v a l u e . P e r h a p s o n e o f t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t p h a s e s o f a n e x p l o r a t o r y r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m s u c h a s t h i s i s t o g l e a n , f r o m t h e r e s u l t s , i n f o r -m a t i o n w h i c h c a n b e u s e d e i t h e r t o r e w o r k h y p o t h e s e s o r i m p r o v e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n . I am i n c l i n e d t o f e e l t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s e s a r e v a l i d r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d . B u t c o n s i d e r a b l e r e f i n e m e n t i n t h e p r o g r a m f o r d a t a . c o l l e c t i o n i s p o s s i b l e . I h a v e o u t l i n e d b e l o w t h e i m p r o v e m e n t s w h i c h s h o u l d b e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o c o n t i n u i n g r e s e a r c h o n t h e G u l f I s l a n d s s t u d y . 5 . 2 D i r e c t i o n s f o r R e s e a r c h ( a ) - H y p o t h e s i s I 1. T h e s a m p l e s i z e s h o u l d b e i n c r e a s e d . .2. M e a s u r e m e n t s o f a c t i v i t y p a t t e r n s s h o u l d i n c l u d e n o t o n l y t h e t y p e s o f a c t i v i t y p u r s u e d b u t a l s o t h e amount o f t i m e s p e n t i n e a c h a c t i v i t y p e r v i s i t . T h e q u e s t i o n -n a i r e w a s n o t d e s i g n e d t o r e f l e c t t h e t i m e r e s p o n d e n t s h a d s p e n t i n p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t i e s d u r i n g t h e i r v i s i t t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d . T h e a c t i v i t i e s w e r e s i m i l a r e n o u g h i n t y p e t h a t m o s t v i s i t o r s , r e g a r d l e s s o f a g e , s e x , i n c o m e , e t c . , c o u l d h a v e b e e n e x p e c t e d t o p u r s u e e a c h . T h u s s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d i d n o t d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e t w e e n t h i s q u a l i t a t i v e m e a s u r e o f a c t i v i t y p a t t e r n s . B u t a q u a n t i t a t i v e m e a s u r e m e n t o f t h e amount o f t i m e s p e n t i n e a c h a c t i v i t y c o u l d w e l l b e r e l a t e d t o t h e s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w h i c h I h a v e s u g g e s t e d . W h e r e v e r p o s s i b l e , a l l m e a s u r e m e n t s s h o u l d b e made o n a n i n t e r v a l s c a l e , i . e . , v a l u e s c a n b e r a n k e d a n d t h e e x a c t d i s t a n c e b e t w e e n t h e m c a n b e d e t e r m i n e d . B e c a u s e o f t h e q u a l i t a t i v e n a t u r e o f t h e m e a s u r e m e n t s o b t a i n e d i n t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e , I w a s f o r c e d t o i n c l u d e t o o many b i n a r y v a r i a b l e s i n t h e c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s . A s a r e s u l t , s i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s w o u l d h a v e b e e n m e a n i n g l e s s . R e g r e s s i o n a n d c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s c a n i n c l u d e b i n a r y v a r i a b l e s i f t w o c o n d i t i o n s a r e s a t i s f i e d : (1) o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e d i v i s i b l e i n t o two m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e c l a s s e s , a n d ( 2 ) t h e e f f e c t o f t h e c l a s s d i f f e r e n c e i s t o c h a n g e t h e Y i n t e r c e p t l e v e l , o f t h e e q u a t i o n w i t h o u t c h a n g i n g t h e s l o p e c o e f f i c i e n t s . T h e f i r s t c o n d i t i o n i s e a s i l y m e t . H o w e v e r , t h e s e c o n d c o n d i t i o n i s much m o r e d i f f i c u l t t o f u l f i l ; t h e r e I s n o a s s u r a n c e t h a t t h e s l o p e s f o r two o r m o r e c l a s s e s o f d a t a a r e t h e s a m e . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n s h o u l d b e t e s t e d . H o w e v e r , i n e q u a t i o n s w i t h a l a r g e n u m b e r o f v a r i a b l e s , t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t i e s i n p l o t t i n g a n d s o l v i n g s e p a r a t e e q u a t i o n s a r e l a r g e . C o n s e q u e n t l y m o s t r e s e a r c h e r s m e r e l y a s s u m e e q u a l s l o p e s 89 T h i s a s s u m p t i o n may b e f r e q u e n t l y i n c o r r e c t a n d t h e r e b y v i o l a t e t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l a s s u m p t i o n s i n h e r e n t i n r e g r e s s i o n a n d c a n o n i c a l c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s e s . 4 . I t may b e u s e f u l t o make m e a s u r e m e n t s o f some s o c i o -e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o n a f i n e r s c a l e . A g e , p a r t i c u l a r l y , i s a n e x a m p l e . T h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e a s k e d r e s p o n d e n t s t o i n c l u d e members o f t h e i r g r o u p i n o n e o f 5 a g e c l a s s e s u p t o 25 y e a r s o l d b u t p r o v i d e d o n l y two c h o i c e s o v e r 25 y e a r s o l d . T h e c o a r s e s c a l e o f m e a s u r e m e n t u s e d may h a v e o b s c u r e d s u b t l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . (B) H y p o t h e s i s I I . 1 . T h e number o f " o b s e r v a t i o n s m u s t b e i n c r e a s e d . T h e l o w number o f r e s p o n d e n t s was t h e p r i m a r y c a u s e o f t h e a r t i f i c i a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s o b s e r v e d i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . T h e number o f v i s i t s p e r l o t a r e a ( d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ) h a d a v e r y s m a l l r a n g e a n d v a r i a t i o n s c o u l d b e s i g n i f i c a n t l y e x p l a i n e d b y a c o n s t a n t t e r m i n t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n . 2 . T h e map o n t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e s h o u l d c o n t a i n m o r e r e f e r e n c e p o i n t s . I t i s d o u b t f u l t h a t r e s p o n d e n t s c o u l d a l w a y s p i n p o i n t t h e l o t a r e a s t h e y h a d v i s i t e d . Some c o n t o u r i n t e r v a l s , 90 m i n o r r o a d s a n d b u i l d i n g s s h o u l d b e d r a w n o n t h e m a p . 3. T h e s e t o f 4 g e n e r a l m e a s u r e m e n t s w h i c h I u s e d t o d e s c r i b e l a n d s c a p e a t t r i b u t e s i s o n l y a f i r s t s t e p t o w a r d t h e r e s e a r c h t h a t i s r e q u i r e d . G i v e n a l a r g e r number o f r e s p o n d e n t s , r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a n d p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s o b t a i n e d c o u l d l e a d t o a m o r e a c c u r a t e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e l a n d s c a p e a t t r i b u t e s . t o w h i c h r e c r e a t i o n i s t s r e s p o n d . My e f f o r t s w e r e l i m i t e d b e c a u s e o f t h e l o w number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s a v a i l a b l e f o r a n a l y s i s . T h e m a j o r t a s k o f r e s e a r c h o n e n v i r o n m e n t a l p e r c e p t i o n i s t o i d e n t i f y a n d q u a n t i f y t h e e l e m e n t s i n a l a n d s c a p e t h a t a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d t o p u b l i c p r e f e r e n c e s f o r t h a t l a n d s c a p e . I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t a l l o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s do n o t b e a r t h e same r e l a t i o n s h i p t ° t h e l a n d s c a p e . H u n t i n g , f o r i n s t a n c e , i n v o l v e s t h e d i r e c t h a r v e s t o f some o f t h e p r o d u c t s o f t h e e n v i r o n -m e n t ; t h e a b u n d a n c e o f t h a t " p r o d u c t " w i l l p l a y a l a r g e p a r t i n d e t e r m i n i n g w h e r e h u n t e r s w i l l l o c a t e . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , h i k i n g h a s l e s s d e f i n e d r e q u i r e m e n t s . P e r h a p s h i k e r s a p p r e c i a t e d i f f e r e n c e s i n s l o p e , r e s p o n d t o o p e n v e g e t a t i o n a l c o v e r , a n d p r e f e r t o a v o i d l o w w e t a r e a s . O r p e r h a p s a l l t h r e e e l e m e n t s c o m b i n e t o f o r m a p l e a s a n t l y d i v e r s e e n v i r o n m e n t a t t r a c t i v e f o r h i k i n g . W h i c h e v e r i s t h e c a s e , t h e r e s e a r c h e r , i n t h e a b s e n c e o f s u p p o r t i n g l i t e r a t u r e , w i l l b e f o r c e d t o a d o p t a n i n t u i t i v e a p p r o a c h i n i d e n t i f y i n g t h e l a n d s c a p e e l e m e n t s t o w h i c h p a r t i c u l a r g r o u p s o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s r e s p o n d . T h e s e c o n d p r o b l e m i s how t o m e a s u r e l a n d s c a p e e l e m e n t s . M e a s u r e m e n t s m u s t c o i n c i d e w i t h t h e way u s e r s p e r c e i v e t h e r e s o u r c e . I t w o u l d b e p o i n t l e s s t o d e s c r i b e t h e e x a c t a r e a o f a d e s i g n a t e d l a n d s u r f a c e I f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s d i d n o t p e r c e i v e t h i s v a l u e . T h i s , p o i n t b r i n g s up t h e i m p o r t a n t p r o b l e m o f d e c i d i n g w h a t p a r t i c u l a r m e a s u r e m e n t s o f l a n d s c a p e e l e m e n t s w i l l p r o d u c e t h e b e s t c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h u s e r p e r c e p t i o n . 34 35 L i t t o n a n d S h a f e r u s e d m e a s u r e m e n t s o f t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n a n d a r e a o c c u p i e d b y e l e m e n t s i n a v i s u a l f i e l d . H o w e v e r , t h i s a p p r o a c h p r e s e n t s o n e i m p o r t a n t o p e r a t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t y i f a p p l i e d i n t h e f i e l d . A n y l a n d a r e a c o n t a i n s a n i n f i n i t e number o f v a n t a g e p o i n t s ; d e p e n d i n g o n t h e p o s i t i o n o f t h e o b s e r v e r , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e l e m e n t s i n t h e v i s u a l f i e l d w i l l v a r y f r o m p o i n t t o p o i n t . A l s o , l a n d a r e a s a r e m o r e f r e q u e n t l y v i e w e d f r o m some v a n t a g e p o i n t s t h a n o t h e r s . I t w o u l d b e d i f f i c u l t t o c o n s i d e r t h e s e f a c t s a n d a r r i v e a t a n y s i n g l e i n d e x d e s c r i p t i v e o f t h e v i s u a l q u a l i t y o f t h e e n t i r e a r e a . 34 R. B . L i t t o n , J r . , F o r e s t L a n d s c a p e D e s c r i p t i o n s a n d  I n v e n t o r i e s ( C a l i f o r n i a : U . S . D . A . F o r e s t S e r v i c e R e s e a r c h P a p e r P S W - 4 9 , 1 9 6 8 . 35 E . L . S h a f e r e t a l . , " N a t u r a l L a n d s c a p e P r e f e r e n c e s : A P r e d i c t i v e M o d e l , " J . o f L e i s u r e R e s e a r c h , 1 ( 1 9 6 9 ) , p p . 1 - 1 9 . A p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e w o u l d b e t o m e a s u r e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f v a r i o u s l a n d s c a p e e l e m e n t s i n a n a r e a . A t l e a s t 3 m e a s u r e s o f d i s t r i b u t i o n c a n b e made f r o m t o p o g r a p h i c maps a n d . a e r i a l p h o t o g r a p h s . T h e s e a r e : (1) t h e a r e a o c c u p i e d b y a n y l a n d s c a p e e l e m e n t ( 2 ) . t h e r a n g e o f v a l u e s i t c a n a s s u m e , a n d ( 3 ) a m e a s u r e o f t h e d i s p e r s i o n o f t h a t l a n d s c a p e e l e m e n t i n t h e a r e a . D a t a c o u l d b e c o l l e c t e d b y a p o i n t s a m p l i n g m e t h o d . T h e m o s t e f f i c i e n t s a m p l e d e s i g n w o u l d b e 36 t h e " s y s t e m a t i c s t r a t i f i e d u n a l i g n e d " d e s i g n p r o p o s e d b y B e r r y . T h e o r e t i c a l a n d e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s e s h a v e s h o w n t h a t s y s t e m a t i c s t r a t i f i e d s a m p l e s p r o v i d e . m o r e p r e c i s e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e mean t h a n e i t h e r r a n d o m , s t r a t i f i e d r a n d o m , o r s y s t e m a t i c s a m p l e s . S y s t e m a t i c s t r a t i f i e d s a m p l e s c a n b e f u r t h e r s u b d i v i d e d i n t o a l i g n e d o r u n -a l i g n e d s a m p l e s . S y s t e m a t i c s t r a t i f i e d a l i g n e d s a m p l e s h a v e a p e r f e c t l y e v e n s e t o f p o i n t s , i . e . , a f t e r l o c a t i n g o n e p o i n t a t r a n d o m , t h e r e m a i n i n g p o i n t s a r e p l a c e d a t r e g u l a r i n t e r v a l s f r o m i t . I n . c o n t r a s t , t h e s y s t e m a t i c s t r a t i f i e d u n a l i g n e d s a m p l e d o e s n o t h a v e a n . e v e n s e t o f p o i n t s ; t h e p o i n t s a r e l o c a t e d a t r a n d o m w i t h i n s t r a t a a c c o r d i n g t o a m e t h o d d e v e l o p e d b y B e r r y . T h u s , t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f b i a s d u e t o p e r i o d i c i t i e s i n t h e d a t a a r e e l i m i n -a t e d . T h e t h e o r y a n d m e t h o d o f a p p l y i n g t h i s t y p e o f s a m p l e d e s i g n a r e o u t l i n e d b y B e r r y i n t h e U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e H a n d -b o o k Number 2 3 7 . B . J. L . B e r r y , S a m p l i n g , C o d i n g a n d S t o r i n g F l o o d P l a i n  D a t a ( U . S . A . : U . S . D . A . A g r i c u l t u r a l H a n d b o o k N o . 2 3 7 , 1 9 6 2 ) . A n a l t e r n a t e s u g g e s t i o n f o r t h e m e a s u r e m e n t o f t y p e s a n d d i v e r s i t y o f l a n d s c a p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i s t h a t c e r t a i n g r o u p s o f a n i m a l s c o u l d b e u s e d a s i n d i c a t o r s o f t h e v i s u a l d i v e r s i t y o f a n a r e a . A n i m a l s p e c i e s a r e a d a p t e d t o s p e c i f i c h a b i t a t s ; t h e n u m b e r s a n d d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a n i m a l s p e c i e s r e f l e c t t h e number a n d k i n d o f h a b i t a t s w i t h i n a n y l a n d a r e a . B i r d s p e c i e s i n p a r t i c u l a r o c c u p y h a b i t a t s w h i c h a r e d i f f e r e n t i a b l e t o t h e u n t r a i n e d o b s e r v e r . T h e r e -f o r e a n i n v e n t o r y o f t h e number o f b i r d s p e c i e s i n a n a r e a may r e f l e c t t h e v i s u a l d i v e r s i t y o f t h e a r e a . H o w e v e r , t h i s m e t h o d h a s l i m i t a -t i o n s . C e r t a i n b i r d s p e c i e s a r e l e s s t o l e r a n t t o human t r a f f i c t h a n o t h e r s ; i n some w e l l - u s e d a r e a s t h e h a b i t a t may e x i s t b u t b i r d s p e c i e s o c c u p a n c y may n o t r e f l e c t t h i s f a c t . T h e r e s e a r c h w h i c h I h a v e d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s t h e s i s i s o n l y o n e c o m p o n e n t o f t h e f o u r p o i n t m e t h o d p r o p o s e d b y A n d e r s o n ( s e e C h a p t e r I ) . H o w e v e r , a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h d e f i n e t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l p o t e n t i a l o f t h e l a n d s u r f a c e i s t h e b a s i s f o r t h e e n t i r e p l a n n i n g m e t h o d . I m p r o v e d m e t h o d s o f d a t a c o l l e c t i o n c o u l d h e l p t o d e f i n e t h e i n t e r n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h d e t e r m i n e i t s r e s p o n s e t o a r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e . F r o m t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n t h e p a t t e r n s o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s o f a n y p o p u l a t i o n s h o u l d b e p r e d i c t a b l e . F o r e c a s t i n g . t h e f u t u r e s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s o f v i s i t o r s t o G a l i a n o I s l a n d i s a s e p a r a t e a n d d e t a i l e d p r o b l e m . I t s h o u l d b e p o s s i b l e t o s i m u l a t e f u t u r e p a t t e r n s o f v i s i t a t i o n b y t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t e x p e c t e d c h a n g e s i n d e v e l o p m e n t , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o s t s o f t r a v e l , l e i s u r e t i m e , e t c . The m o s t i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s t h a t f o r e c a s t s o f f u t u r e v i s i t a t i o n t o t h e G u l f I s l a n d s m u s t b e c o n s i d e r e d a s a p a r t i c u l a r c o m p o n e n t i n a s y s t e m o f r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d w h i c h may i n v o l v e a l l o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a a n d p a r t s o f t h e n o r t h w e s t e r n U n i t e d S t a t e s . A c h a n g e i n o n e p a r t o f t h e s y s t e m w i l l a f f e c t a l l o t h e r c o m p o n e n t s , i . e . , m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e Howe S o u n d r e g i o n c o u l d a t t r a c t r e c r e a t i o n i s t s who w o u l d o r d i n a r i l y h a v e v i s i t e d t h e G u l f I s l a n d s . A s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l may w e l l b e t h e o n l y p r a c t i c a l way i n w h i c h t o c o n s i d e r t h e p r o b l e m o f f o r e c a s t i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a f f i c . T h e s e c o n d p h a s e o f t h e r e s e a r c h c o n t a i n e d i n t h i s t h e s i s d e s c r i b e d a m e t h o d o f e x a m i n i n g t h e l a n d s c a p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o w h i c h r e c r e a t i o n i s t s r e s p o n d . B y i m p r o v e d d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , i t s h o u l d b e p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e a c o n t i n u u m o f l a n d s c a p e c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s w h i c h h a v e d i f f e r e n t i a l a t t r a c t i v e n e s s f r o m a n y p a r t i c u l a r r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t y . W i t h t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n t h e l a n d s c a p e c o u l d b e c l a s s i f i e d i n t e r m s o f u s e r r e s p o n s e . T h e p a r t i c u l a r r e s e a r c h m e t h o d o l o g y w h i c h I h a v e p r o p o s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s c a n b e u s e d t o i s o l a t e t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h d e t e r m i n e r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e a t a n y p a r t i c u l a r p o i n t i n t i m e . I t i s a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s i n a q u a l i t i v e s e n s e . To b e u s e f u l i n a q u a n t i t a t i v e s e n s e , t h e i n f o r m a t i o n g a i n e d m u s t b e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o a d y n a m i c m o d e l . M o r e c o t t a g e d e v e l o p m e n t o n G a l i a n o I s l a n d i s i n e v i t a b l e . T h i s d e v e l o p m e n t w i l l c h a n g e p a t t e r n s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e . T h e m e t h o d o l o g y w h i c h I h a v e p r o p o s e d w i l l show how t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f a n y o n e l o t a r e a w o u l d b e c h a n g e d b y d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h a t l o t . B u t t h e p r o b l e m i s t h a t t h e c h a n g e s i n d e s i r a b i l i t y o f a n y o n e l o t may c h a n g e p a t t e r n s o f v i s i t a t i o n t o a l l o t h e r l o t s . P r e v i o u s l y u n a t t r a c t i v e l o t a r e a s may s u d d e n l y b e c o m e t h e m o s t a t t r a c t i v e r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d o n t h e i s l a n d . T h u s t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h u n d e r l i e p a t t e r n s o f r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e i s o n l y t h e f i r s t s t e p i n d e s i g n i n g a s y s t e m s m o d e l w h i c h i s u s e f u l , i n a p r e d i c t i v e s e n s e , t o t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . 96 Selected L i s t of References Anderon, K.:R. A User Resource Planning Method. National Advisory-Council on Regional Recreation Planning. Hidden V a l l e y , Loomis, C a l i f o r n i a , 1959. Anderson, T. W. Ah Introduction to M u l t i v a r i a t e S t a t i s t i c a l  A n a l y s i s . New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1958. Berry, B. J . L. Sampling Coding and Storing Flood P l a i n Data. U.S!A.: United States Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , Farm Economics D i v i s i o n , A g r i c u l t u r a l Handbook No. 237, 1962. — , and D. F. Marble. S p a t i a l Analysis. A Reader i n S t a t i s t i c a l Geography. New Jersey: P r e n t i c e - H a l l , 1958. Bishop,:D. W. "Some M u l t i v a r i a t e Analysis Techniques and t h e i r Approaches to Recreation Research." National Conference on  Recreation-Research. U n i v e r s i t y Park, Pa., U.S.A., 1966, pp. 177-193. Bj e r r i n g , J . H., et a l . U.B.C. T r i p (Triangular Regression Package). U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia: Computing Centre, 1969. Bpyet, Wayne E., and George S. T o l l e y . "Recreation Project Based on Demand An a l y s i s . " J . of Farm Econ., 48 (1961), pp. 984-1001. Burch, William R. J r . "Two Concepts for Guiding Recreation Manage-ment Decisions." Journal of Forestry, 62 (1964), pp. 707-712. Cherukupalle, Nirmala devi. "Multiple Regression A n a l y s i s — I n t e r -p r e t a t i o n of Computer Output, etc." Mimeographed handout, U.B.C, 1968. Clark, S.B.K. "Landscape Survey and Analysis on a National Basis." Planning Outlook, New:Series, V o l . 4, (Spring 1968), pp. 15-29. Clawson, Marion. Methods lof Measuring the Demand f o r and Value of  Outdoor Recreation. U.S.A.: R.F.F. Reprint No. 10, Feb., 1959. — . "Measuring Outcomes i n Terms of Economic Implications f o r Society." National Conference oh Recreation Research, U n i v e r s i t y Park, Pa., U.S!A., 1966, pp. 54-61. -, and J . Knetsch. "Outdoor Recreation Research: Some Con-cepts and Suggested Areas of Study." Natural Resources  Journal, V o l . 3, (Oct. 1963), pp. 250-275. 97 Cooley, W. and P. R. Lohnes. M u l t i v a r i a t e Procedures f o r the :Behavioral Sciences. New York: John Wiley, 1962. Cowan, Ian McTaggart. "Conservation and Man's Environment." Park Practice :Trends, V o l . 3 (1966), pp. 23-30. Crampon, L . J . "The Gr a v i t a t i o n Model: A Tool for Travel Market An a l y s i s . " : The Tou r i s t Review, V o l . 20, (1965), pp. 110-116. C u r r i e , L. "Landscape-as System." Geog. R., LIV, 1 (1964), pp. 121-124. Daiute, R. J . "Methods f o r Determination of Demand'. for Outdoor Recreation." Land Econ., 42 (1966), pp. 327-338. Davis, Robert K. "The Value of Big Game Hunting i n a Private Forest." Transactions of the Twenty-Ninth North American W i l d l i f e and Natural Resources Conference, Washington, D.C., W i l d l i f e Management I n s t i t u t e , 1964, pp. 393^403. Dotzehko, A. D., N. T. Papanichos, and D. S. Romine. " E f f e c t of Recreational Use on S o i l and Moisture Conditions i n Rocky Mountain National Park." J_. S o i l Wat. "Conserv. , 22 (1967), pp. 196-197. E l l i s , J . B. "A Systems Model of Recreational Travel i n Ontario: A Progress Report." Report RR 126, Department of Highways, Ontario, 1967. . "A Systems Model for Recreational Travel i n Ontario: Further Results." Report RR 148, Department of Highways, Ontario, 1969. F e r r i s s , A. L. "Types of Recreation Surveys." National Conference  oh Recreation Research. U n i v e r s i t y Park, Pa., U.S.A., 1966, pp. 160-176. Green, B.L., and H.A. Wadsworth. "Campers: What A f f e c t s P a r t i c i p a -t i o n and What do they Want?" Researcli B u l l . 1^.823_, Purdue Un i v e r s i t y A g r i c u l t u r e Experiment Station, Indiana, 1966. Hamill, Louis. "Process of Making Good Decisions about the use of the Environment of Man." Natural Resources Journal, V o l . 8 ( A p r i l 1968), pp. 279-301. H e l l i w e l l , D. R. "Valuation of W i l d l i f e Resources." Regional  Studies, V o l . 3 (1969), pp. 41-47. Hopkins, W. S. "Research and User Preferences." National Conference oh Recreation Research, U n i v e r s i t y Park, Pa., U.S.A., 1966, pp. 81-85. 98 King, L. J . S t a t i s t i c a l Analysis i n Geography. New Jersey: P r e n t i c e - H a l l , 1969. Knetsch, Jack L. "Forest Recreation: A Case of Nonmarket Resource Use." J . of Forestry, V o l . 65 (Feb. 1967), pp. 102-105. K r a j i n a , V. J . , ed. Ecology of Western North America. V o l . 1. U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia : Department of Biology and Botany, 1965. -. Ecology of Western North America. Vol..2. U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia ^Department of Biology and Botany, 1969. L i t t o n , R. B. J r . Forest Landscape Des c r i p t i o n and I n v e n t o r i e s — A Basis f or Land Planning and Design. Berkeley, C a l i f : P a c i f i c SW Forest and Range Exp. Sta., 1968. Lucas, Robert;C. "Wilderness Perception and Use : The Example of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area." Natural Resources Journal, V o l . 3 (Jan. 1964), pp. 394-411. McCurdy, Dwight R. "A.Second Look at Camping Demand Pr e d i c t i o n s . " J . of Forestry, V o l . 64 (Sept. 1966), p. 631. : , and R. M. Mischon. "A Look at the Private Campground User." U.S. Forest Service Research Paper CS-18. Forest Expt. Sta., Columbus, Ohio, 1965. Pearse, Peter H. "Water Based Recreation Demands." Forecasting the Demand f o r Water. Ottawa: Dept. of Energy, Mines and Resources, 1968, pp. 161-193. P i a t t , Robert B., and John F. G r i f f i t h s . Environmental Measurement  and Interpretation. New York: Rheinhold, 1964. Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission. Wilderness and Recreation—A Report oh Resources, Values, and Problems. Washington, D.C.: O.R.R.R.C. Study Report No. 3, 1962. -. The Quality of Outdoor Recreation as Evidenced by User  S a t i s f a c t i o n . Washington, D.C. : O.R.R.R.C. Report No. 5, 1962. -. P a r t i c i p a t i o n i n Outdoor Recreation: Factors A f f e c t i n g  Demand Among American Adults. Washington, D.C. O.R.R.R.C. Study Report No. 20., 1962. -. Urban Growth and the Planning of Outdoor Recreation. Washington, D.C. V O.R.R.R.C. Study Report No. 22, 1962. 99 Reid, L.M. " U t i l i z i n g User Preferences i n Pr e d i c t i n g Outdoor Recreation Demand." National Conference on Recreation Research, U n i v e r s i t y Park, Pa., U.S.A.,:(1966), pp. 86-93. Richards, J . Howard. "Gross Aspects of Planning and Outdoor Recreation with P a r t i c u l a r Reference to Saskatchewan." The Can; Geog., V o l . XI, 2 (1967), pp. 117-123. Sessoms, H. Douglas. "New Bases f o r Recreation Planning." .J.A. LP. V o l . XXX, No. 1 (Feb. 1964), pp. 26-33. Shafer, E.L. "Perception of Natural Environments." Environment  Behavior, V o l . 1 (June, 1969), pp. 71-82. -, et a l . "Natural Landscape Preferences : A P r e d i c t i v e Model." J . of Leisure Research, V o l . 1 (1969), pp. 1-19. , and R.C. Thompson. "Models that Describe Use of Adirondack Campgrounds." Forest Science,14 (1968), pp. 383-391. Shepard, Paul. Man i n the Landscape. New York: A l f r e d A. Knopf, 1967. , and Daniel McKinley, etd. The Subversive Science. New York: Hougton M i f f l i n Co., 1969. Sonnenfeld, J . "Equivalence and D i s t o r t i o n of the Perceptual Environ-ment." E n v ^ V o l . 1, (June 1969), pp. 83-99/ Taylor, G.D., and;W. T. Clark. "Proposed Methodology f or an Inven-tory and C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Land f or Recreational Use." For. Chron., V o l . 42 (1966), pp. 153-159. T h i e l , P h i l i p . "A.Sequence-Experience Notation." Town Planning Review, V o l . XXXII (1961) , pp. 33-52. T r i c e , A.H., and S.E. Wood. "Measurement of Recreation Benefits." Land Economics, V o l . 34, No. 3 (Aug. 1958), pp. 195-207. Ullman,;E. L. and D. J . Volk. "An Operational Model f o r P r e d i c t i n g Reservoir Attendance and Benefits: Implication of a Location Approach to Water Recreation." Papers of the Michigan Academy  of Science Arts and L e t t e r s , V o l . XLVII (1962), pp. 473-484. Ungar, Andrew. T r a f f i c A t t r a c t i o n of Rural Outdoor Recreational Areas. U.S.A.: National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report 44, 1967. 100 U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f t h e I n t e r i o r , B u r e a u o f O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n . A P r o g r a m f o r O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n R e s e a r c h . W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . : N a t i o n a l ' . A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s , 1 9 6 9 . W o l f e , R o y I . " P e r s p e c t i v e s i n O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n : A B i b l i o g r a p h i c a l S u r v e y , " G e o g . R . , V o l . 54 ( 1 9 6 4 ) , p p . 2 0 3 - 3 8 . :—. " P a r a m e t e r s o f R e c r e a t i o n T r a v e l i n O n t a r i o . " P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e 1965 C o n v e n t i o n C a n a d i a n Good R o a d s A s s o c i a t i o n  S a s k a t o o n , ; S a s k a t c h e w a n , S e p t . 2 7 - 3 0 , 1 9 6 5 . p p . 2 3 5 - 2 6 1 . APPENDIX I DEFINITIONS 102 D e f i n i t i o n s 1. L a n d s c a p e - a n a r e a o f t h e e a r t h ' s s u r f a c e w h i c h s u p p o r t s t h e g r o w t h o f t e r r e s t r i a l o r g a n i s m s , b o t h p l a n t a n d a n i m a l . 2. N a t u r a l A r e a - a l a n d s c a p e w h i c h h a s n o t b e e n a p p r e c i a b l y a l t e r e d b y human a c t i v i t y . 3. O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n -r l e i s u r e t i m e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h p e o p l e p u r s u e i n n a t u r a l a r e a s . 4. E n v i r o n m e n t - t h e e n v i r o n m e n t c o n s i s t s o f a l l o f t h e t y p e s o f s t i m u l i t o w h i c h a n o r g a n i s m c a n r e s p o n d . 5. L o t A r e a - a n a r e a d e f i n e d b y s u r v e y l i n e s r e g i s t e r e d i n t h e S u r v e y o r G e n e r a l ' s o f f i c e i n V i c t o r i a . T h e s e a r e i d e n t i f i e d b y e i t h e r n u m b e r s o r l e t t e r s a s i n map n o . 1. 6 . V a r i a b l e - a n y a t t r i b u t e , t r a i t o r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c w h i c h t a k e s o n two o r m o r e q u a n t i t i e s , o r q u a l i t i e s . APPENDIX II QUESTIONNAIRE THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. , COON BAY SALISVA^ Note-. If you have .a l ready rece ived and completed t h i s or the res ident q u e s t i o n n a i r e , p lease re tu rn t h i s copy The ques t i o.nna i re is ro be f i 1 i ed cu t by the head of the f a m i l y or the head of the group. If you are t r a v e l l i n g in a group choose one person who is r e p r e -s e n t a t i v e of the group to complete the quest i o n n a i r e . Date coup 1 eted : Day \__ ' Month 1. Where is your perman-ent home? Ci t y Prov . S ta te C o u n t r y 2.(a) When d i d you land on Ga1i ano Is1 and ? Day ___ Month (b) When d i d you 1esve GaIi ano I s1 and ? Day 3. How d i d you t rave l to Ga l iano Is land? Pr i vate B.oat_ Ferry Plane GEORGIA HiUS GALIANO ISLAND WILL YOU VISIT GALIANO ISLAND FIVE YEARS FROM TODAY ? " V - I ^ p The Gul f Is lands are a unique doorway .'-to, the Paoi f i e - r e c r e a t i o n a r e a ; they -at t ract - more v i s i t o r s each year . We hope that t h e i r na tu ra l a t t r a c t i v e n e s s w i l l - b e preserved -and we th ink you do too. The School of Community and Regional p lann ing of the tin iv ers i ty of ' 8r j t i sh Columb i a lias chosen GaTTano Is land to stinTy" how the i n c r e a s i n g pressure for outdoor r e c r e a t i o n a f f e c t s you - and how i t is changing the natu ra l charac te r of the i s l a n d . Your answers wi 1.1 i gn b e ' c o n f i d e n t i a l ; . d o not your name-. Please re tu rn the completed to us as soon as p o s s i b l e . TO HELP YOU! ques t i onna i r c HELP US 4. . Looking at the l i s t of a c t i v i t i e s below, put a check mark bes ide those a c t i v i t i e s that you and your group took par t in du r ing t h i s t r i p to Ga1i ano 1 s1 and. Going to the beach to walk , swim, e x p l o r e , gather s h e l l s - p i c n i c e tc Camping overn ight Boat ing and f i s h i n g H o r s e b a c k ' r t d i n a Gol f . . . ' ; Walking or h i k i n g (not on beach) " Other (wr i te in ) j Look ing at the map of j G a l i a n o , you wi11 see that i t is d i v i d e d i n t o l o t s , each of which has ; an i d e n t i f y i n g nuriber. Beside the a c t i v i t i e s you checked, w r i t e in the number(s) of the ;squares that you d id each act.i v i ty i n . i ' '4 ' 5. What was your major neans of t r a v e l on ia1iano is 1 and ? Car • 8 i c y c i e Wa 1 k i nc, 6. P lease draw a l i n e . on the map a long those >-<3ads that you t r a v e l ie on to show which roads you took and how . fa r vou went. 7. In the tab le be low. wr i te i n ' those act i v i . t i es your group wanted, to do, but d i d n ' t , and w r i t e in the reason why your group- d i d n ' t do them. Outdoor A c t i v i t i e s Reason.. SALAMANCA POINT .STURDIES BAY 14 . ' P) eas e- wr {'te in t he number of people . in your par ty who are' Ace .13.. j f you own..property on Ga 1 i ano 1 s 1'and Check here Group Ha leg Female and locate I t on trie"' map wi th an X. '• 16. Any comments you have wouId be we 1 come; p lease use the back of the Q u e s t i o n n a i r e . . -0- 1 '. year 2-7 5 . years 6-10 years -11-15 . years 16-25 years \ 26-50 years Over SO.years 8. How many times have -.you v i s i t e d Ga l iano Is land ? ? . i f you stayed one or too re n ights on G a l i a n o . Is land .where d i d 'you .-• s t a y ? _. Own cot tage : . Mote I, Lodge . , Campground". F r i end '"s • • .cot tage - . ' • Other.- ' ; ••' (Wr i te in ) 10 . P 1 ease wr i te- i n your p e c u p a t i o n . • ' ; . 1 1 . - 'What k ind of a t r i p i s th i s ? Major annual vacation.. Weekend or overn ight _____ Day o u t i n g Combined bus-iness t r i p & -v&e&t i-on ___ Comb i ned v i s i t to . f r i ends S- r e I a t i ves ' and vacat ion „•-" . 12., Heve you • comp 1 eted A '.. (a). High school » v (b) Unirvers i ty • , .; 13-'. What, is- your 'tota,J : . •f am i 1 y y e a r ly i n c. ©m e/ before taxes'- ' / '/ THANK YOU 

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