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The demand for modern drybulk terminals on the Canadian west coast and some planning implications Mac Dougall, Donald Joseph 1971

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THE DEMAND FOR MODERN DRYBULK TERMINALS ON THE CANADIAN WEST COAST AND SOME PLANNING IMPLICATIONS by DONALD JOSEPH MAC DOUGALL B.Sc. S t . F r a n c i s X a v i e r U n i v e r s i t y , 1956 B.E. ( C i v i l ) Nova S c o t i a T e c h n i c a l C o l l e g e , 1959 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n t h e S c h o o l o f COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l 1971 LL In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Donald Joseph Mac Dougall Department of Community and Regional Planning The University of British Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date A p r i l 1971 ABSTRACT The i n c r e a s e d s c a l e of some o p e r a t i o n s , i n c e r t a i n i n d u s t r i e s , n e c e s s i t a t e s the i n p u t of very l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s of raw m a t e r i a l s . These are f r e q u e n t l y f a r removed from the c e n t r e s o f p r o c e s s i n g — r e s u l t i n g i n h i g h t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s . I t has been found t h a t t h i s i n c r e a s e i n t r a d e and i n the s c a l e of commodity movement has, d u r i n g the p a s t decade, l e a d to the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the super bulk c a r r i e r . The study shows t h a t the use of very l a r g e s h i p s reduces t r a n s p o r t c o s t s s i g n i f i c a n t l y and a t the same time p r o v i d e s i n d u s t r y w i t h the s i z e o f shipment r e q u i r e d f o r l a r g e s c a l e o p e r a t i o n . These dry b u l k v e s s e l s i n v o l v e a huge c a p i t a l o u t l a y and must move l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s each year i n o r d e r to t u r n a p r o f i t — t h e p r o f i t a b l e use of these l a r g e v e s s e l s depends on a r e d u c t i o n i n p o r t time. Ship's time i n p o r t can be reduced by i n c r e a s i n g the r a t e of l o a d i n g . To i n c r e a s e the r a t e of m a t e r i a l s handled i t i s necessary e i t h e r t o have a s u f f i c i e n t s t o c k p i l e on hand or t o supply the t e r m i n a l a t a r a t e which would a l l o w continuous l o a d i n g from the t r a i n t o the s h i p . A t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system u t i l i z i n g l a r g e s h i p s i s examined; the components or sub-systems are i d e n t i f i e d and t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l requirements determined. I t i s shown t h a t the i n t r o d u c t i o n of super bulk c a r r i e r s has n e c e s s i t a t e d changes i n the d e s i g n of t e r m i n a l as w e l l as i n the i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system. The c o s t of these changes, however, i s more than o f f s e t by the savings r e s u l t i n g from the use of the super c a r r i e r s and improvements i n i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . The study i n v e s t i g a t e s world commodity t r a d e , i d e n t i f i e s those raw m a t e r i a l s which are t r a n s p o r t e d i n bulk c a r r i e r s , and i s o l a t e s the commodities which move i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s to a l l o w the employment o f super bulk c a r r i e r s . E x p o r t s and imports through West Coast Canadian p o r t s are examined to determine i f the same or a d d i t i o n a l products c o u l d u t i l i z e these l a r g e v e s s e l s i n the Canadian c o n t e x t . The study concludes t h a t c o a l i s the o n l y commodity which w i l l move through a B r i t i s h Columbia p o r t c o n s i s t e n t l y i n ' super b u l k c a r r i e r s and t h a t the d e s t i n a t i o n w i l l be Japan. I t i s a l s o shown t h a t a f t e r 1975 t h e r e w i l l be a r e q u i r e -ment f o r an a d d i t i o n a l bulk t e r m i n a l b e r t h and t h a t a second b e r t h w i l l be r e q u i r e d b e f o r e 19 85. U t i l i z a t i o n of the new technology f o r the land and sea components has n e c e s s i t a t e d t h a t new c r i t e r i a be developed i v f o r the s e l e c t i o n o f marine t e r m i n a l s i t e s . The s c a l e o f new f a c i l i t i e s i n t u r n , has•made the n o n - t e c h n i c a l c o n s i d e r a -t i o n s of g r e a t e r importance than i n the p a s t . The requirements f o r super bulk c a r r i e r s are more s t r i n g e n t than f o r c o n v e n t i o n a l s h i p s . The study p o i n t s out t h a t , i n the p r o v i s i o n and o p e r a t i o n o f s u i t a b l e f a c i l i t i e s , c o n f l i c t s can a r i s e due t o (a) the requirement f o r l a r g e amounts, up t o 100 acres per b e r t h , of l e v e l l a n d , (b) maintenance of water depth i n channel and a t the b e r t h may r e q u i r e d r e d g i n g , (c) u n i t t r a i n o p e r a t i o n c a u s i n g n o i s e d i s t u r b a n c e and c o n f l i c t s w i t h s u r f a c e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and (d) the dust p o l l u t i o n problem. I t i s recommended t h a t when new marine t e r m i n a l s are b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d t h a t the n o n - t e c h n i c a l e f f e c t s be g i v e n c o n s i d e r a t i o n a l o n g w i t h the economic and p h y s i c a l requirements. V TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I . INTRODUCTION 1 A. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 2 1. S i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e Problem . . . . . . 2 2. Background t o t h e Problem . . . . . . . 3 3. R e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e Problem . . . . 5 B. PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES 6 C. HYPOTHESIS . . 7 D. METHODOLOGY AND ORGANIZATION 8 E. LIMITATIONS AND SCOPE . . . x 11 1. F a c t o r s n o t C o n s i d e r e d 11 2. Assumptions . . 11 3. Scope 12 4. D e f i n i t i o n o f Terms 13 5. C o n s t r a i n t s . 14 6. Concern t o P l a n n i n g 15 I I . THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM . 16 A. ECONOMIES IN TRANSPORT COSTS 18 1. I n l a n d T r a n s p o r t System 20 (a) S o l i d s P i p e l i n e s 21 (b) U n i t T r a i n s 29 2. T e r m i n a l Component 33 3. Ocean T r a n s p o r t System 39 v i CHAPTER PAGE . I I I . COMMODITY DEMAND AND THE SUPPLY OF SHIPPING 50 A. THE DEMAND FOR SHIPPING SERVICE 51 1. World Commodity Demand and Supply . . . 53 (a) Iron Ore 55 (b) Coal 56 (c) Grain 59 (d) Phosphate 61 (e) Bauxite and Alumina . . . . . . . . 62 2. Commodity Production and Movement Thr-ough West Coast Ports . . . . . . . 64 (a) Iron Ore 70 (b) Coal 70 (c) Grain 73 (d) Phosphates 74 (e) Bauxite and Alumina 7 4 (f) Potash 74 (g) Sulphur 77 3. Reguirements R e s u l t i n g From the Bulk Trade 78 B. THE SUPPLY OF SHIPPING SERVICE 79 1. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the Bulk C a r r i e r F l e e t 80 (a) Types of Bulk C a r r i e r s 80 (b) The Trend t o Bigger Ships 86 (c) The Design V e s s e l and i t s Requirements 92 v i i CHAPTER PAGE IV. COMMODITY MOVEMENT IN RELATION TO WEST COAST TRANSPORTATION . . 97 A. HARBOUR LOCATIONS 97 B. INLAND TRANSPORT AND RESOURCE LOCATIONS 101 1. R a i l Network . . 101 (a) Western Canada . 101 (b) Lower Mainland 107 2. Commodity L o c a t i o n s . . . 109 C. THE PORT OF VANCOUVER 115 1. P a c i f i c Coast Bulk Terminals . . . . 119 2. Vancouver Wharves L i m i t e d 120 3. Neptune Te r m i n a l s L i m i t e d 121 4. Westshore Terminals L i m i t e d . . . . . 122 5. The C o n f l i c t s 125 6. P o t e n t i a l L o c a t i o n s 127 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . 129 A. CONCLUSIONS . . . . . 129 B. RECOMMENDATIONS 134 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY . 135 LIST OF APPENDICES I. B r i t i s h Columbia Mining Revenue 141 I I . S o l i d s P i p e l i n e s 144 I I I . U n i t T r a n s 7 v i i i APPENDICES PAGES IV. Cargoes over 200,000 tons loaded a t B r i t i s h Columbia P o r t s t o and from F o r e i g n C o u n t r i e s 1967 150 C o u n t r i e s Importing over 200,000 tons of a S i n g l e Commodity v i a the P o r t of •Vancouver i n 1967 153 V. B r i t i s h Columbia M i n e r a l P r o d u c t i o n and Shipments 154 VI. Map of P o r t L o c a t i o n s 160 i x L I S T OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 1. PROPORTIONAL ALLOCATION OF FINAL COST OF COMMODITY 19 2. REPRESENTATIVE SOLIDS TRANSPORTATION v • COSTS 24 3. COMPARATIVE COST OF P I P E L I N E TRANS-PORTATION 25 . 4. ESTIMATED SAVINGS BY USE OF LARGE SHIPS IN PLACE OF SMALL SHIPS . . . 45 5. L I F T I N G AND TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR BULK COMMODITIES, 1966-1968 54 . 6. LEADING STEEL PRODUCING REGIONS - 1969 . . . . 55. 7. JAPANESE STEEL PRODUCTION FORECASTS TO 1983 56 8. PRINCIPAL COAL MOVEMENTS IN 1969 58 9'. WORLD GRAIN TRADE, VOLUME AND TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE 1961-1968 59 10. S I Z E DISTRIBUTION OF GRAIN CARRIERS 1968 . . . 60 1 1 . BAUXITE AND ALUMINA, TOTAL SEABORNE TRADE 1966 . 63 12. SUMMARY OF DEEPSEA TRADE. B.C. LOWER MAINLAND 19 6 6-19 85 68 1 3 . PORT OF VANCOUVER, PRINCIPAL EXPORTS FOR SELECTED YEARS (RANK BY 19 66 TONNAGE) 69 14. BITUMINOUS COAL PRODUCTION, ALBERTA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA 1968-1969 71 15. WORLD POTASH CONSUMPTION, 196 8 ACTUAL AND 1978 ESTIMATED 77 X TABLE PAGE 16. AVERAGE SIZE OF BULK CARRIERS 1968-1970 82 17. VESSELS ON ORDER 1961-1970 83 18. CARGO MOVEMENTS BY COMBINED CARRIERS 1966-1968 84 19. GROWTH OF COMBINED CARRIER FLEET 1966-1970 85 20. DEVELOPMENT OF MAIN BULK CARRIER TYPES . . . 88 21. DISTRIBUTION OF EXISTING BULK CARRIER FLEET AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1969 89 22. NEWBUILDINGS DELIVERED 1960-1969 90 23. DISTRIBUTION OF BULK CARRIERS ON ORDER AS OF JANUARY 1968 and 1970 91 24. RANGE OF DIMENSIONS FOR BULK CARRIERS . . . 96 x i LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE . PAGE 1. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Stages and Components 17 2 . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Cost i n a S l u r r y P i p e l i n e — C o a l and M i n e r a l s . . 28 3 . Flow Diagram of Bulk T e r m i n a l O p e r a t i o n s . . . 37 4 . Schematic Diagram of T r a i n H andling Systems at T e r m i n a l . 3 8 5 . V e s s e l Type i n R e l a t i o n t o S h i p p i n g Market . . 40 6. , B r i t i s h Columbia Ir o n Ore and Copper Producers . 72 7 . B r i t i s h Columbia R i v e r Systems . . 98 8 . T r a n s c o n t i n e n t a l and R e g i o n a l Railway Systems i n Western Canada 104 9 . Railways S e r v i n g B r i t i s h Columbia and Western A l b e r t a . 105 1 0 . L o c a t i o n of Bulk T e r m i n a l s on B u r r a r d I n l e t i n R e l a t i o n t o R a i l Network . . . . . . 108 1 1 . C o a l Mines i n Western Canada 110 1 2 . B r i t i s h Columbia Copper Producers and Market 19 69 113 1 3 . Potash and Sulphur Producing Areas . . . . . . 114 1 4 . The P o r t of Vancouver, Harbour L i m i t s . . . . 118 1 5 . P o r t of Vancouver - Roberts Bank 124 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The export of raw m a t e r i a l c o n t r i b u t e s s u b s t a n t i a l l y t o the w e l f a r e and p r o s p e r i t y of Canadians. In 19 67 the v a l u e of raw m a t e r i a l e x p o r t s was $2.1 b i l l i o n . 1 The Government of B r i t i s h Columbia has e s t i m a t e d the v a l u e of the p r i n c i p a l e x p o r t s t o f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s i n 1968 to be above $1.8 b i l l i o n ; of t h i s $480 m i l l i o n was d e r i v e d from the s a l e of primary and r e f i n e d m i n e r a l s . Appendix I shows the v a l u e of B r i t i s h Columbia mine p r o d u c t s and t h e i r markets f o r the p e r i o d 1965-69. The movement of these commodities i s o f c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t , p a r t i c u l a r l y today when marine t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s 2 g o i ng through a p e r i o d of r a p i d e v o l u t i o n . The Canada-Japan Trade C o u n c i l has s t a t e d t h a t some persons are p r e d i c t i n g a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c r i s i s i n Canada i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . They contend t h a t the r a i l r o a d -p o r t system i s inadequate t o s u s t a i n the p r e d i c t e d volume DBS, Canada Year Book 1969, (Ottawa: Queens P r i n t e r , 1969), p. 1000. 2 Robert F. K l a usner, "The E v a l u a t i o n of Risk i n Marine C a p i t a l , " The E n g i n e e r i n g Economist, V o l . 14, No. 4, 1969, p. 188T -2 of b u l k commodities t o be exported. I t i s suggested t h a t the most acute problem w i l l c e n t r e around the West Coast b u l k l o a d i n g f a c i l i t i e s and the road and r a i l network 3 which feeds them. A. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM Before we p l a n f o r a f a c i l i t y we must determine i f t h e r e i s a need or requirement. To do t h i s i t i s necessary to determine the c o n d i t i o n s g i v i n g r i s e t o the need and the e f f e c t s o f t h i s on the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system. I f i n f a c t a requirement f o r a f a c i l i t y i s proven, the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system d i c t a t e s the d e s i g n or e x t e n t o f the t e r m i n a l — i n the con t e x t of t h i s study, the " l o c a t i o n a l r equirements." These l o c a t i o n a l requirements or c r i t e r i a a r i s e i n a l l the components of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system. The requirements i n t u r n p r e s e n t a need f o r land f o r the f a c i l i t y proper and f o r the t r a n s p o r t l i n k a g e s w i t h the commodity source. 1. S i g n i f i c a n c e of the Problem Land, whether i t be l o c a t e d i n a r u r a l or an urban a r e a , i s a r e s o u r c e which must meet the f u t u r e needs of the 3 Canada-Japan Trade C o u n c i l N e w s l e t t e r , December 1970, p. 2. 3 c i t i z e n s of a c o u n t r y . I f the space i n q u e s t i o n i s l o c a t e d i n or near an urban area i t i s u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d a s c a r c e r e s o u r c e or r e s o u r c e i n s h o r t supply, the q u e s t i o n o f o p t i m a l a l l o c a t i o n of space among competing uses i s then c o n s i d e r e d t o be o f importance. On the o t h e r hand, the a l l o c a t i o n of l a n d i n a r u r a l area i s regarded as much l e s s s e r i o u s 4 because we c o n s i d e r l a n d a p l e n t i f u l r e s o u r c e . Our concern i n t h i s study i s to determine i f changes i n the movement of d r y b u l k cargo i s i n f a c t t a k i n g p l a c e , what i s c a u s i n g the changes, what form the changes are t a k i n g , and what are the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f chese changes. 2. Background t o the Problem The requirement f o r dry b u l k marine t e r m i n a l s i s not an o l d one. Indeed the commodities which we today c o n s i d e r s u i t a b l e f o r s h i p p i n g i n b u l k c a r r i e r s have been t r a d e d f o r s c o r e s of y e a r s . They were, however, moved i n s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s by comparison w i t h today, and were e i t h e r shipped i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h g e n e r a l cargo or c a r r i e d by s m a l l v e s s e l s which s p e c i a l i z e d i n the movement o f g r a i n or c o a l 5 or o r e . I t was the g r e a t expansion of o r e , c o a l and g r a i n movements i n the m i d - f i f t i e s which brought i n t o b e i n g the ^Lowdon Wingo J r . , C i t i e s and Space, The Future Use  of Urban Land, (Ba l t i m o r e : The Johns Hopkins Press^ 1963), p. T~. 4 more e f f i c i e n t and s o p h i s t i c a t e d bulk v e s s e l s , and i t was the growth i n the s i z e of these v e s s e l s t o super b u l k c a r r i e r s of over 50,000 deadweight tons (dwt), i n the s i x t i e s , which c r e a t e s the need f o r modern marine t e r m i n a l s . Although t h i s expansion of b u l k t r a d e o c c u r r e d over a r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t p e r i o d i t d i d not c r e a t e an immediate demand f o r super b u l k c a r r i e r s , f i r s t because i t would mean t h a t some cargo would s h i f t from e x i s t i n g s h i p s c a u s i n g the s m a l l e r v e s s e l t o become i d l e . The second f a c t o r which de l a y e d the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the super b u l k c a r r i e r was the huge investments r e q u i r e d i n r a i l , sea and t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s . These f a c i l i t i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the case of the t e r m i n a l and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t r a i l , have a l o n g l i f e and investment d e c i s i o n s are not e a s i l y r e v e r s i b l e . In a d d i t i o n , i t was expected t h a t the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the super c a r r i e r c o u l d make much of the e x i s t i n g t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s o b s o l e t e . Those concerned w i t h a p a r t i c u l a r segment of the t r a n s p o r t system were not prepared t o undertake t h i s investment u n i l a t e r a l l y without e x t e n s i v e study and c o n s u l t i o n . A t h i r d important c o n s i d e r a -t i o n was t h a t new l o c a t i o n a l p a t t e r n s would r e s u l t from the new method of raw m a t e r i a l s supply. T h i s i s today p a r t i c -u l a r l y e v i d e n t i n the l o c a t i o n of new s t e e l m i l l s on deep water p o r t s . ^ 5 F e a r n l e y & E g e r s , World Bulk C a r r i e r s 1970. Canada-Japan Trade C o u n c i l N e w s l e t t e r , November 1970, p. 3. 5 3. R e s p o n s l b i 1 1 t y f o r the Problem Dry-bulk t e r m i n a l s are owned and/or operated by r a i l w a y s , by ocean t r a n s p o r t a t i o n companies, by the producer of the r e s o u r c e , by the harbour a u t h o r i t y , or by an independent t e r m i n a l l i n g company. As i s o f t e n the case, each puts d i f f e r e n t emphasis on d i f f e r e n t items i n t h e i r s e l e c t i o n of s i t e and d e s i g n o f the f a c i l i t y . T h i s emphasis v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r p r e s e n t l i n e of b u s i n e s s , t h e i r p r o f i t p i c t u r e and t h e i r e s t i m a t e s of the l o n g term p o t e n t i a l . The f e d e r a l government has r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r most Canadian harbours and m aintains channels w i t h i n p o r t s to accommodate s h i p s u s i n g the harbour. They a l s o have a p o l i c y o f p a y i n g o n e - h a l f the c o s t o f d r e d g i n g the approaches t o p r i v a t e f a c i l i t i e s . T h e Government has on a number of o c c a s i o n s b u i l t l a r g e m u l t i - m i l l i o n d o l l a r wharves and l e a s e d them t o p r i v a t e i n d u s t r y a t a r e n t a l which would a l l o w f u l l r e c o v e r y of investment. Thus i t can be seen t h a t t h e r e i s an involvement by the f e d e r a l government at the p r e s e n t time and we see no i n d i c a t i o n t h a t t h i s p a r t i c i p a t i o n w i l l s t o p , p a r t i c u l a r l y where t h e r e i s p r e s s u r e on the government as t h e r e was i n the case of Roberts Bank. We s h a l l i n v e s t i g a t e the problem from the s t a n d p o i n t of the n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t , and where t h e r e seems to be a c o n f l i c t w i t h l o c a l i n t e r e s t s the problem a r e a s h a l l be 6 p o i n t e d out. Goal f o r m a t i o n i s d i f f i c u l t as c o n f l i c t s a r i s e among communities, w i t h i n a m e t r o p o l i t a n area, a p r o v i n c e or the n a t i o n . What i s good f o r Regina or A l b e r t a or Canada may not be good f o r Vancouver and v i c e v e r s a . B. PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES The o p e r a t i o n a l advantages t o be d e r i v e d from a "deep-water" t e r m i n a l have been s t a t e d as b e i n g the economies t h a t can be o b t a i n e d by o p e r a t i n g very l a r g e s h i p s . One main o b j e c t i v e then i s to determine i n the case of B r i t i s h Columbia, i f economies can i n f a c t be ob t a i n e d ; then t o i d e n t i f y those i n d u s t r i e s ( i n c l u d i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) sen-s i t i v e t o f r e i g h t c o s t s which would expand or s t a r t up because of the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f cheaper sea t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . A secondary purpose, o f t h i s a n a l y s i s , i s t o understand the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system; t o know a c c u r a t e l y and i f p o s s i b l e q u a n t i t a t i v e l y how the v a r i a b l e s i n t e r a c t and what requirements are e s t a b l i s h e d by the sub-systems i n a c h i e v i n g an e f f e c t i v e system. We must keep i n mind our measure of e f f e c t i v e n e s s , i . e . , e f f i c i e n c y . The 1967 N a t i o n a l T r a n s p o r t a t i o n A c t s t i p u l a t e s the o b j e c t i v e of " . . . an economic, e f f i c i e n t and adequate t r a n s p o r t system making the b e s t use of a l l a v a i l a b l e modes of t r a n s -p o r t a t i o n at the lowest c o s t s . . . to p r o t e c t the i n t e r e s t s of u s e r s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and t o m a i n t a i n the economic w e l l b e i n g o f Canada." 7 The d r y b u l k marine t e r m i n a l has c e r t a i n d e s i g n requirements which must be s a t i s f i e d i f the t e r m i n a l i s to operate e f f i c i e n t l y . Recent i n n o v a t i o n s i n the movement of dry b u l k commodities, s p e c i f i c a l l y the i n c r e a s e i n s i z e o f v e s s e l and the r e s u l t a n t i n c r e a s e d s c a l e of o p e r a t i o n s of marine t e r m i n a l s , has made some t e r m i n a l s o b s o l e t e . A t h i r d o b j e c t i v e w i l l be t o determine these requirements f o r a modern t e r m i n a l . C . HYPOTHESIS Trade has been i n c r e a s i n g year by year, o f t e n s t r a i n -i n g the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system but never a l t e r i n g i t d r a s t i c -a l l y . D u r i n g the s i x t i e s , however, t r a d e i n c r e a s e d a t an above average r a t e . D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d we saw the i n t r o -d u c t i o n of the l a r g e v e s s e l s , f i r s t the super tanker and then the super c a r r i e r . The i n n o v a t i o n s i n the movement of dry bulk commodities i s r e f l e c t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y i n the i n c r e a s e d s i z e of v e s s e l s . The l a r g e investment per s h i p has r e s u l t e d i n the demand by ship-owners f o r i n c r e a s i n g the s c a l e o f o p e r a t i o n s a t marine t e r m i n a l s . In t u r n , t h i s has brought about a demand f o r commensurate improvements i n the i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system. T h i s study w i l l attempt to l i n k the demand f o r commodities w i t h a requirement f o r modern f a c i l i t i e s and our h y p o t h e s i s i s then: 8 Incr e a s e d t r a d e has promoted the use of super bul k c a r r i e r s and e s t a b l i s h e d a need t o p r o v i d e modern t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s . I t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t c o m p e t i t i o n among s u p p l i e r s may be as r e s p o n s i b l e as i n c r e a s e d demand i n promoting the super bulk c a r r i e r . I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d i s t i n g u i s h between the two; we s h a l l use e x i s t i n g and p r o j e c t e d t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s as a measure of demand f o r s h i p p i n g . S t a t i s t i c s on the s i z e of the e x i s t i n g f l e e t and of v e s s e l s on or d e r w i l l be used as a measure o f the response t o t h i s demand. By "modern t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s " i s meant marine t e r m i n a l s capable of h a n d l i n g those s h i p s p r e s e n t l y i n a tr a d e and expected t o e n t e r the tr a d e i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . T h i s s i z e of s h i p w i l l be d e s i g n a t e d the "design v e s s e l . " I t i s the requirements o f the d e s i g n v e s s e l t o g e t h e r w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n on the i n l a n d l o c a t i o n s of the re s o u r c e s and on the i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system which determine the l o c a t i o n a l requirements or c r i t e r i a f o r modern dry bulk t e r m i n a l s . D. METHODOLOGY AND ORGANIZATION The f i r s t s t e p i n our study i n v o l v e d an examination of commodity movement from producer t o consumer, and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f the sub-systems com p r i s i n g the t r a n s p o r t system. Each sub-system or component was then examined i n d e t a i l , o p e r a t i o n a l standards were i s o l a t e d , and p o s s i b l e 9 i n n o v a t i o n s i d e n t i f i e d . Comparisons of c o s t s were made between e x i s t i n g and proposed t e c h n i q u e s . The components which comprise c o s t were i d e n t i f i e d and c o s t comparisons between the sub-systems were made i n order t o i d e n t i f y p o s s i b l e f u t u r e areas f o r c o s t r e d u c t i o n s . T h i s was c a r r i e d out by s t u d y i n g t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t s and through i n t e r v i e w s w i t h the r a i l r o a d and t e r m i n a l l i n g i n d u s t r y . The next s t e p c o n s i s t e d of a review of s t u d i e s and l i t e r a t u r e i n the f i e l d o f s h i p p i n g , p a r t i c u l a r l y , work c a r r i e d out by the U n i t e d Nations and O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic C o o p e r a t i o n and Development. T h i s l e d t o the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the f u t u r e t r e n d s i n bulk s h i p p i n g and t o c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of commodities as b e i n g s u i t a b l e or non-s u i t a b l e f o r b u l k s h i p p i n g i n the world-wide sense. The Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , N a t i o n a l Harbours Board, and the B r i t i s h Columbia Departments of I n d u s t r i a l Develop-ment, Trade and Commerce, and of Mines and Petroleum Resources p r o v i d e d i n f o r m a t i o n on Canadian p r o d u c t i o n and export and import d a t a . The Canadian data from these sources was examined t o determine i f the o r i g i n a l l i s t c o u l d be expanded by the i n c l u s i o n o f some commodities or i f some should be d e l e t e d because they were u n a v a i l a b l e i n t h i s r e g i o n . An examination of the s t a t i s t i c s and r e p o r t s pro-v i d e d data which f o r e c a s t world commodity movements and t r e n d s i n t r a n s p o r t technology, comparing these w i t h the m a t e r i a l c o l l e c t e d f o r Canada allowed the g e n e r a l t o be adapted t o the s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n of the Canadian West Coast. The f o r e c a s t i n c l u d e s e s t i m a t e s of s i z e and type of s h i p which would be used i n the movement of the cargo, f u t u r e i n n o v a t i o n s i n i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t , and f u t u r e modal t r a n s f e r requirements. T h i s study r e l i e s h e a v i l y on p u b l i s h e d i n f o r m a t i o n , s t a n d a r d data so u r c e s , i n t e r v i e w s w i t h a u t h o r i t i e s , v i s i t s t o v a r i o u s l o c a t i o n s to view the f a c i l i t i e s a t f i r s t hand, and d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h persons i n the i n d u s t r y . The m a t e r i a l i s p r e s e n t e d i n f i v e c h a p t e r s . Chapter I s e t s out the h y p o t h e s i s t o be t e s t e d and o u t l i n e s the scope and c o n s t r a i n t s of the study. The f o l l o w i n g c hapter d i s c u s s e s the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system, i d e n t i f i e s p o s s i b l e i n n o v a t i o n s which may a l t e r the system i n the f u t u r e and i d e n t i f i e s the f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g c o s t . Chapter I I I covers commodity movements, tren d s i n s h i p s i z e , and the c r i t e r i a f o r o p t i m i z a t i o n . Chapter IV shows the l o c a t i o n of the commodities, d e s c r i b e s the i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n network, and d i s c u s s e s p o s s i b l e l o c a t i o n s f o r marine t e r m i n a l s on the West Coast. The chapter a l s o d e s c r i b e s Roberts Bank and the e x i s t i n g marine t e r m i n a l s on B u r r a r d I n l e t ; and d i s c u s s e s the s i t u a t i o n v i s - a - v i s o t h e r l a n d uses. Chapter V c o n t a i n s the c o n c l u s i o n s and makes recommendations r e -g a r d i n g the l o c a t i o n of dry b u l k t e r m i n a l s . E. LIMITATIONS AND SCOPE 1. F a c t o r s Not C o n s i d e r e d I n d u s t r i a l development and secondary p r o c e s s i n g are s u b j e c t s w i t h p o l i t i c a l overtones i n B r i t i s h Columbia not i n Canada. T h i s study w i l l not address i t s e l f t o the f o l l o w i n g f o u r q u e s t i o n s : (a) Should our raw m a t e r i a l s be exported? (b) I f so, at what r a t e and t o what e x t e n t should they be e x p l o i t e d ? (c) Can the raw m a t e r i a l s be u t i l i z e d i n B r i t i s h Columbia or i n Canada, now or i n the s h o r t term f u t u r e ? (d) W i l l the raw m a t e r i a l be i n s h o r t supply i n the f u t u r e , thus a l l o w i n g a h i g h e r p r i c e a t some f u t u r e time? The r e a d e r w i l l f i n d i n t e r e s t i n g d i s c u s s i o n s on these q u e s t i o n s i n the proceedings of the B r i t i s h Columbia Resources Conferences. 2. Assumptions Some Assumptions are b a s i c t o the study. These are : (a) The export of raw m a t e r i a l s from Western Canada w i l l not be r e s t r i c t e d by government. 12 (b) P r o d u c t i o n s h a l l be governed by market f o r c e s and the marketing s t r a t e g y o f the h o l d e r s of the m i n e r a l r i g h t s , and (c) The nec e s s a r y p e r m i s s i o n w i l l be granted f o r the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f the r e q u i r e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . 3. Scope Although s t a t i s t i c s and i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g g r a i n i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s r e p o r t , i t i s not c o n s i d e r e d i n the same d e t a i l as are the o t h e r b u l k commodities. The reason f o r t h i s i s t h a t g r a i n shipments through a p a r t i c u l a r p o r t vary from one year t o the next, and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s onl y a s m a l l p a r t of a very complex o p e r a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , g r a i n can f i n d i t s s o l u t i o n s e p a r a t e from the o t h e r bulk commodities. N o t w i t h s t a n d i n g t h i s , the t r a n s p o r t of Canadian g r a i n i s important t o our economy and a problem worthy of a t t e n t i o n . The movement of g r a i n and i t s p a r t i c u l a r s e t o f problems i s handled admirably by P r o f e s s o r E.W. Ty r c h n i e w i c z and O.P. T a n g r i , both of the Department of A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics o f the U n i v e r s i t y of Manitoba, i n t h e i r 1968 paper " G r a i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n Canada: Some C r i t i c a l Issues and I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r Research." In a d d i t i o n , a study on g r a i n h a n d l i n g f a c i l i t i e s on the West Coast which was completed by Kates, Peat, Marwick and Company i n September 13 1967, would p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n t o the i n t e r e s t e d r e a d e r . In the course of d e t e r m i n i n g the commodities t h a t are t r a n s p o r t e d i n super bulk c a r r i e r s the r e p o r t i n d i r e c t l y i d e n t i f i e s those manufacturing and p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s which have an a f f i n i t y t o a l o c a t i o n on a deep water p o r t . I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of i n d u s t r i a l development o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s not, however, a purpose of the study nor does the r e p o r t c o n s i d e r the q u e s t i o n of trans-shipment and the c o n s o l i d a t i o n and/or breaking-up of s h i p loads (the C e n t r a l T e r m i n a l 7 S t a t i o n or CTS system). 4. D e f i n i t i o n of Terms Bulk carrier: a s i n g l e decked v e s s e l of over 10,000 dead-weight to n s . Deadweight tonnage (dwt): the amount a v e s s e l can c a r r y or " l i f t " expressed i n l o n g tons: f o r p r a c t i c a l purposes equal to the weight o f the cargo. Harbour: e i t h e r a b u i l t - u p p o r t o f f e r i n g s e r v i c e s to s h i p p i n g or a s h e l t e r e d a r e a o f f e r i n g s a f e anchorage. The concept of the C e n t r a l T e r m i n a l or CT system i n v o l v e s the shipment of a product i n super t a n k e r s or dry bulk c a r r i e r s t o a c e n t r a l p o i n t f o r trans-shipment i n s m a l l e r v e s s e l s to the u s e r . Such a t e r m i n a l i s b e i n g c o n s i d e r e d by the P r o v i n c e o f Nova S c o t i a f o r the S t r a i t o f Cansp. Hinterland: the i n l a n d a r e a connected w i t h the p o r t by means of t r a n s p o r t l i n k s and which r e c e i v e or supply the goods handled by the p o r t . Port: a harbour or t h a t p a r t o f a harbour h a v i n g docks and p i e r s . Super bulk carrier: a b u l k c a r r i e r o f over 50,000 dead-weight tons (dwt). Super dry bulk terminal: a t e r m i n a l capable o f accommodating super b u l k c a r r i e r s . Transport performance: i s a measure of weight (ton) c a r r i e d over a d i s t a n c e ( m i l e ) . 5. C o n s t r a i n t s W r i t t e n i n f o r m a t i o n on the q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y , the c o s t of mining, p r o d u c i n g and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t t r a n s p o r t i n g t o the p o r t , i s not r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e f o r the p e r i o d a f t e r 1969. S i n c e the e x p o r t of c o a l has come i n t c prominence s i n c e t h a t time, we must r e l y t o a l a r g e e x t e n t on p r e s s r e p o r t s f o r i n f o r m a t i o n r e l a t i n g t o c o a l . As f o r the o t h e r m i n e r a l s , a l t h o u g h s t a t i s t i c s are r e s t r i c t e d t o the p e r i o d b e f o r e 1969, t h e r e are i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t p r o d u c t i o n has not changed a p p r e c i a b l y and the d a t a can be i n t e r p o l a t e d t o the p r e s e n t . 15 6. Concern t o P l a n n i n g The growing i n t e r e s t and sense o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y among p l a n n e r s i n b r i n g i n g economic development and r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g i n t o harmony w i t h the a c t i v i t y p a t t e r n s and a t t i t u d e s of people i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h i s study. An understanding of the t r a n s p o r t system i n v o l v e d i n the movement of bulk commodities, and a knowledge of the commodities themselves w i l l a l l o w r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f the system, and promote e f f i c i e n c y w h i l e r e d u c i n g the o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r c o n f l i c t i n land use p l a n n i n g . A study o f t e r m i n a l requirements and p o s s i b l e areas o f c o n f l i c t w i l l a s s i s t harbour a u t h o r i t i e s or p l a n n i n g o f f i c i a l s i n making d e c i s i o n s on f u t u r e t e r m i n a l s . At the l o c a l l e v e l the study w i l l i d e n t i f y the c r i t e r i a which should be c o n s i d e r e d when new bulk t e r m i n a l f a c i l -i t i e s are c o n s i d e r e d on B u r r a r d I n l e t or when expansion o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s i s c o n s i d e r e d . CHAPTER I I THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM A t o t a l systems concept i s concerned w i t h a s e r i e s of f u n c t i o n s t h a t are p h y s i c a l l y i n t e r l i n k e d , the o b j e c t i v e b e i n g t o d i s c o v e r how each l i n k can be b e s t adapted t o c o n t r i b u t e t o the e f f i c i e n c y o f the whole. B a s i c a l l y " e f f i c i e n c y " means the l e a s t use of s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s i n the whole economy i n a c c o m p l i s h i n g the g i v e n t a s k . We s h a l l look a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n as a system, i d e n t i f y the sub-systems, d e s c r i b e how each can be o p t i m i z e d , what c r i t e r i a are generated by t h i s o p t i m i z a t i o n and f i n a l l y determine what c o n s t i t u t e s an e f f i c i e n t t r a n s p o r t system. The p r o c e s s of t r a n s p o r t i n g goods from t h e i r p l a c e of p r o d u c t i o n t o p l a c e o f consumption i n v o l v e s s e v e r a l s t a g e s , the number depending on the means of t r a n s p o r t used. Where the goods or commodities are of low va l u e or h i g h b u l k , one of the stages i s u s u a l l y a maritime o n e — and i t i s i n t h i s case t h a t a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f p o r t s i s r e l e v a n t — t h e r e are s i x s t a g e s . The diagram p r e s e n t s the s i m p l e s t p o s s i b l e case of the flow o f a pro d u c t from the p r o d u c t i o n source i n the h i n t e r l a n d t o a source or export port and i t s t r a n s p o r t t o the d e s t i n a t i o n i n the f o r e l a n d . Qh—0—*r—©-^- ® >r—<T) r—0—, 1 1 • 1 tl 1 1 1 L i i i i 1 - 1 — "15 1 L r i i j— 1 2 r i i Producer Export P o r t Import Port Consumer FIGURE 1 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Stages and Components The s i x stages i l l u s t r a t e d i n the Diagram are: (a) S t o c k p i l i n g a t production source and l o a d i n g on i n l a n d mode. (b) Inland movement to the source p o r t ; t h i s may i n v o l v e c a r r i a g e by r a i l , barge, or c o a s t a l s h i p . (c) Unloading i n l a n d mode, s t o c k p i l i n g and l o a d i n g v e s s e l . (d) The sea voyage or sea component. (e) Unloading v e s s e l and s t o c k p i l i n g of commodity and l o a d i n g i n l a n d mode. (f) The c a r r i a g e of the commodity i n l a n d to customer. I t i s becoming more common f o r t h i s l a s t stage t o be e l i m i n a t e d as p l a n t s r e q u i r i n g l a r g e inputs of bulk commod-i t i e s commonly l o c a t e at the p o r t . A. ECONOMIES IN TRANSPORT COSTS With the movement of commodities over longer d i s t a n c e s the c o s t of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n accounts f o r an i n c r e a s i n g pro-p o r t i o n of the d e l i v e r e d c o s t of raw m a t e r i a l s . A l l of the c o s t s i n c u r r e d d u r i n g the s i x stages i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figu r e 1 enter i n t o the f i n a l p r i c e of the product i n the market or reduce the net r e c e i p t s of producers. In many instances s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n export tonnage can be achieved by a r e d u c t i o n i n f r e i g h t r a t e . S a l e s , however, are contingent on the cost to the consumer being c o m p e t i t i v e w i t h other world sources. Lower p r i c e can be achieved e i t h e r by lowering one or the other, or a combination o f , the cos t of prod u c t i o n or the c o s t of d i s t r i b u t i o n . An a n a l y s i s of the co s t s of pro d u c t i o n i s beyond the scope of t h i s r e p o r t and we w i l l c o n f i n e our d i s c u s s i o n to t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s — i t being understood t h a t the lower the cost of product a t source the grea t e r the q u a n t i t y which w i l l be s o l d and t h e r e f o r e This i s proven t o be the case i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n . 19 t r a n s p o r t e d or the l a r g e r percentage of the s e l l i n g p r i c e a v a i l a b l e to cover t r a n s p o r t c o s t s . Although i t i s not p o s s i b l e t o s p e c i f y e x a c t l y what share i s accounted f o r by each component, Swan Wooster have broken down the cos t to a consumer i n Japan f o r c e r t a i n products, assuming a p o i n t of o r i g i n i n i n l a n d Canada and movement t o Japan v i a the port of Vancouver. The r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e of t r a n s p o r t cost f o r bulk cargoes u s i n g c o n v e n t i o n a l r a i l and a v e s s e l i n the 15,000-25,000 ton range i s as f o l l o w s : TABLE 1 PROPORTIONAL ALLOCATION OF FINAL COST OF COMMODITY Commodity Cost at O r i g i n Inland Cost Ocean F r e i g h t Wheat 75% 10% 15% Sulphur 75% 15% 10% Potash 70% 20% 10% Coal 35% 40% 25% Source: Swan Wooster Engineering Co. L t d . , Pl a n n i n g Study f o r Outer P o r t Development at Vancouver, B.C., J u T y 1 9 6 7 . Includes c o s t of t e r m i n a l l i n g . I t i s obvious from Table 1 t h a t f o r low value commod-i t i e s even s m a l l r e d u c t i o n s i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t are h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t t o the end p r i c e . The c o s t s of moving m a t e r i a l s depends on a number of elements among which the f o l l o w i n g f i v e are the most important: (a) Nature of the goods c a r r i e d . (b) Type and s i z e of the v e h i c l e of conveyance. (c) E f f i c i e n c y of loading/unloading v e h i c l e . (d) O r g a n i z a t i o n of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e ( s ) . (f) O r g a n i z a t i o n of the t r a d i n g s e r v i c e s . A s i x t h item should a l s o be considered as i t r e l a t e s to the f u t u r e c o m p e t i t i v e p o s i t i o n of one mode i n r e l a t i o n t o another. (g) Comparative conveyance u t i l i z a t i o n . For the purpose of determining the i n f l u e n c e of the c o s t of t r a n s p o r t on the p r i c e of goods stages a t o f can be regrouped. Two stages can be r e d e f i n e d as i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t . The two p o r t stages i n v o l v e unloading and load-i n g of the land and sea modes of t r a n s p o r t and can be c a l l e d the t e r m i n a l component. The t h i r d stage i s the maritime or sea component. We s h a l l e x plore each of these three components t o determine i f they c o n t a i n any p r a c t i c a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r reducing the costs of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . 1. Inland Transport System Inland t r a n s p o r t may i n v o l v e a land or water move-ment depending on the geography of the area and the economics of t r a n s p o r t . To conform w i t h the o v e r a l l 21 d i r e c t i o n of t h i s paper and t o s i m p l i f y d i s c u s s i o n , we s h a l l assume a one p ort s i t u a t i o n without any c o a s t a l ships or barge movements and without any l a r g e s c a l e commodity movement to the p o rt by t r u c k . The p r i n c i p l e s , however, apply to these other modes, and i n p a r t i c u l a r circumstances these other modes may be of major importance. The c o s t s of i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t are i n f l u e n c e d by the s i t i n g of p o r t s i n r e l a t i o n t o the place of p r o d u c t i o n , and by the access f a c i l i t i e s between the resources and the p o r t . The s u b j e c t of p o rt l o c a t i o n i n g e n e r a l and s p e c i f i c a l l y as regards the l o c a t i o n of resources i s d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter IV. In our context two p r a c t i c a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r reducing the c o s t s of i n l a n d component are a v a i l a b l e : (a) development of a l t e r n a t i v e land t r a n s p o r t systems such as s o l i d s p i p e l i n e s , and (b) improving the e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t y and/or i n t r o d u c i n g new concepts such as u n i t t r a i n s . (a) Solids Pipelines Over the l a s t twenty years p i p e l i n e s have q u i e t l y taken over t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of more than twenty per cent of Canada's f r e i g h t . The r a i l r o a d s best o f f e r f o r moving l i q u i d bulk i s twice what the o i l companies pay the p i p e l i n e s . I t i s not then s u r p r i s i n g t h a t much research has been c a r r i e d out on the movement of s o l i d s by p i p e l i n e w i t h i n Canada. 22 In January 1970, Cascade Pipe Line L i m i t e d served n o t i c e of i n t e n t i o n t h a t they would make a p p l i c a t i o n to the Province of B r i t i s h Columbia to c o n s t r u c t a s o l i d s p i p e l i n e from Sparwood to Roberts Bank f o r the purpose of t r a n s p o r t i n g c o a l . As of the end of 1970 no a p p l i c a t i o n had been made to the P r o v i n c e . The a p p l i c a t i o n w i l l culminate work c a r r i e d out by ShelPac, the A l b e r t a Research C o u n c i l , and by o t h e r s . The A l b e r t a Research C o u n c i l i s i n the f o r e f r o n t of s o l i d s p i p e l i n e r e s e a r c h , t h e i r work suggests t h a t even moderately s u c c e s s f u l c o a l p i p e l i n i n g could reduce cos t s by 2 20 per cent. At the present time the C o u n c i l i s working on a r e c o n s t r u c t i o n p i l o t p l a n t which separates s l u r r y c oking c o a l from i t s i m p u r i t i e s and water. In a d d i t i o n r e s e a r c h i s being c a r r i e d out i n other c e n t r e s ; i n March of 1971 the Saskatchewan Research C o u n c i l was awarded a $400,000 three year c o n t r a c t f o r t e c h n i c a l r e s e a r c h i n t o the movement of bulk commodities by the Canadian T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Commission. The development of p i p e l i n e s i s g e n e r a l l y d i v i d e d i n t o three phases. F i r s t generation means pumping a l i q u i d through a p i p e . By "second generation" i s meant mixing a f i n e s o l i d w i t h a l i q u i d t o form a mixture or s l u r r y and 2 John K e t t l e , " P i p e l i n e s : I f O i l and Gas Can be Piped, Why Not Potash, C o a l , Wheat, Ores, Chemicals?" Monetary Times, V o l . 136, No. 8, 1968, p. 32. 23 pumping the mixture through the p i p e l i n e . By " t h i r d genera-t i o n " i s meant pumping capsules of s o l i d lumps w i t h or i n a l i q u i d . Second generation p i p e l i n e s have been i n e x i s t e n c e f o r some years. In the l a t e 1950's the Consolidated Coal Company put i n a 10-inch, 108-mile long pipe between t h e i r Cadiz Ohio mine and a Cleveland power p l a n t ; the through-put was over one m i l l i o n tons of c o a l a year f o r s i x years. The o p e r a t i o n was h a l t e d when the r a i l w a y introduced u n i t t r a i n s and lowered the f r e i g h t r a t e to an acceptable l e v e l . The longest p i p e l i n e p r e s e n t l y i n o p e r a t i o n , c a r r i e s c o a l 273 m i l e s through an 18-inch l i n e and has an annual c a p a c i t y of 4.8 m i l l i o n tons. Another example i s i n F l o r i d a where IMC move 30,000 tons of phosphate a day through a 16-inch, two-mile long p i p e . S o l i d s p i p e l i n e s are p r e s e n t l y being used to t r a n s p o r t woodchips, i r o n o r e , and c o a l , a p a r t i a l l i s t i n g of m a t e r i a l s amenable t o p i p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s shown i n Appendix I I , the Appendix a l s o i n c l u d e s a summary of s e l e c t e d Commercial s l u r r y p i p e l i n e s . I t i s these second generation or s l u r r y p i p e l i n e s t h a t we are concerned wi t h . E v a l u a t i o n . Dr. Peter J . Manno of the Stanford Research I n s t i t u t e has i n d i c a t e d t h e i r growing importance: 24 S o l i d s p i p e l i n e s may be t r a n s p o r t i n g e i g h t b i l l i o n ton-miles of bulk commodities i n Canada and the U.S. by 19 80, compared w i t h the c u r r e n t volume of about 100 m i l l i o n t on-m i l e s . 3 TABLE 2 REPRESENTATIVE SOLIDS TRANSPORTATION COSTS (2-6 M i l l i o n Tons/Year) T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Cost Range Canadian Mode /Ton-Mile C o n d i t i o n s S l u r r y P i p e l i n e 0. 3-0 .7 Over 50 m i l e s , No S l u r r y P r e p a r a t i o n R a i l 0. 4-0 .9 U n i t T r a i n Over 400 M i l e s Truck 5. 0-8 .0 One Way Haul With Empty Return Conveyor B e l t 2. 0-6 .0 Less Than 15 M i l e s Source: E.J. Wasp and W.L.J. Fall o w . Representative c o s t s f o r t r a n s p o r t i n g s o l i d s u t i l i z i n g v a r i o u s modes are shown i n Table 2, the same source s t a t e s t h a t i t c o s t s l e s s per ton-mile t o move between 2 and 6 m i l l i o n tons per year by p i p e l i n e than by u n i t t r a i n . I t must be remembered, however, t h a t a r a i l l i n e can handle many times the c a p a c i t y of a p i p e l i n e and t h a t the r a i l w a y provides e x t r a b e n e f i t s i n opening up a f r o n t i e r area. The 3 I b i d . , p. 34. p i p e l i n e i s p a r t i c u l a r l y a p p e a l i n g i n the 1-5 m i l l i o n t on range, which i s w e l l below the o r d i n a r y c a p a c i t y of a r a i l r o a d l i n e . T h i s f a c t has been shown by J.H.D. Sturgess and J.D. Weldon of the C.N.R. who compared f i g u r e s f o r the development and o p e r a t i o n o f new p i p e l i n e s v s . r a i l l i n e s . TABLE 3 COMPARATIVE COST OF PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION To move A n n u a l l y : P i p e l i n e s are Cheaper: 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 tons At any d i s t a n c e 1 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 tons Beyond about 70 m i l e s 2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 tons Beyond about 170 m i l e s 5 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 tons Beyond abour 250 m i l e s 1 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 tons Beyond about 400 m i l e s Source: P i p e l i n e s : " I f o i l and gas can be p i p e d , why not potash, c o a l , wheat, o r e s , c h e m i c a l s ? " Monetary  Times, V o l . 1 3 6 , No. 8 , 1 9 6 8 , p. 3 5 . S l u r r y p i p e l i n e s are w e l l s u i t e d f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n over moderate t o l o n g h a u l s , u n i t t r a i n s can be very com-p e t i t i v e f o r the l o n g e r h a u l s — p a r t i c u l a r l y where e x i s t i n g t r a c k a g e can be employed, or where h i g h s l u r r y p r e p a r a t i o n c o s t s must be borne by a p i p e l i n e . Conveyor b e l t s are o f t e n the most e f f i c i e n t and economic way to move bulk commodities where h i g h tonnages and s h o r t h a u l s are i n v o l v e d . 4 E . J . Wasp, and W.L.J. F a l l o w , "Some Aspects c.u S l u r r y P i p e l i n e Economics and A p p l i c a t i o n , " (paper presented a t the f i f t h Annual meeting Canadian T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Research Forum, Toronto, may 1 9 6 9 ) , p. 1 4 . 26 Economies of C o a l P i p e l i n e s . The c o s t of t r a n s p o r t i n g c o a l s l u r r y by p i p e l i n e i s a f u n c t i o n of the tonnage t r a n s p o r t e d , d i s t a n c e , p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the c o a l , c o n d i t i o n s of the t e r r a i n , and the annual c a p i t a l charges of the p i p e l i n e ; the f i r s t two b e i n g the most s i g n i f i c a n t . F i g u r e 2 shows two graphs, developed by B e c h t e l C o r p o r a t i o n , which i n d i c a t e the c o s t of t r a n s p o r t a t i n g s o l i d s by p i p e l i n e . The u t i l i z a t i o n c o s t s of c o a l s l u r r y i n a thermal p l a n t are very c l o s e t o those of dry c o a l as would be d e l i v e r e d by u n i t t r a i n t o the power p l a n t . T h i s i s the case because the s a v i n g i n h a n d l i n g c o s t s o f the s l u r r y w i t h i n the thermal p l a n t o f f s e t s the h i g h e r c o s t s due t o p r o v i d i n g long-term emergency wet s t o r a g e and the thermal p e n a l t y o f u s i n g wet 5 m a t e r i a l . T h i s does not h o l d t r u e f o r c o a l used i n coke ovens where low moisture content i s important. F o r e s t I n d u s t r y . The s a v i n g s l i e i n the area of p r o d u c t i o n and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n from the f o r e s t s , a phase g t h a t accounts f o r 40 to 65 per cent of the t o t a l p u l p v a l u e . A c h i p p i p e l i n e i s p r e s e n t l y i n s e r v i c e i n Newfoundland, i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h i s i s a f i e l d h a v i ng importance t o B r i t i s h Columbia and one t h a t warrants a d d i t i o n a l work. I b i d . , p. 17. 6 I b i d . , p. 22. Coal Industry. The Cascade p i p e l i n e , estimated t o cost $207 m i l l i o n , would be the longest i n the world a t 500 7 m i l e s m l e n g t h . Mr. L.F. Bolger of ShelPac, a f i r m connected w i t h Cascade, i s quoted as saying: T i l l now, many have looked on s o l i d s p i p e l i n i n g as j u s t a r a t h e r v i s i o n a r y mode of moving m a t e r i a l s t h a t , under c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s , might r e p l a c e other e x i s t i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n methods. But we are usin g an e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t systems approach i n which the whole i n t e g r a t e d mine-to-customer process i s being designed f o r maximum o v e r a l l economic advantages. 8 This means t h a t by de s i g n i n g the whole t r a n s p o r t a -t i o n system f o r s l u r r y , there would be a saving i n production, i n i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and i n l o a d i n g and unloading the s h i p . However, as noted above, s t u d i e s are going on regard-i n g removal of the water. Press r e p o r t s i n d i c a t e samples of coke made from the s l u r r i e d c o a l have been sent to Japan and t h a t i n October 1970 Japanese o f f i c i a l s v i s i t e d the proposed route of the p i p e l i n e and the coking ovens of S t e e l Co. of Canada i n Hamilton, where t e s t i n g has been c a r r i e d out. S t e e l I n dustry. In 1968 the world's f i r s t ocean shipment of i r o n ore s l u r r y a r r i v e d i n Japan, t h i s shipment was experimental but today Oregon S t e e l M i l l s a t P o r t l a n d i s s u p p l i e d e x p l u s i v e l y i n t h i s manner. The ore i s pumped 7 CP Proposes World's Largest S o l i d s P i p e l i n e Across B.C." F i n a n c i a l Post, J u l y 25, 1970, p. 1. g I b i d . , p. 2. 29 aboard s h i p as a s l u r r y (75% s o l i d s by weight) and then the h o l d i s decanted, and a f t e r s e t t l i n g , the cargo has l e s s than a 10 per cent moisture c o n t e n t . Upon a r r i v a l a t the s t e e l p l a n t , the cargo i s c u t by h i g h p r e s s u r e water j e t s and pumped ashore t o sto r a g e ponds. T h i s d i s c u s s i o n i s e l a b o r a t e d on i n S e c t i o n 3 of t h i s c h a p t e r . (b) Unit Trains There are fou r b a s i c areas i n r a i l w a y o p e r a t i o n i n which t h e r e have been e f f o r t s t o reduce c o s t s ; these a re: (a) i n c r e a s i n g the s i z e o f the shipment, (b) r e d u c i n g s w i t c h -i n g t o a minimum, (c) r e d u c i n g t e r m i n a l l i n g t o a minimum, and (d) r e d u c i n g l o a d i n g time t o a minimum. The u n i t t r a i n concept i s a b r i n g i n g t o g e t h e r , a t one time, a l l o f these i d e a s . The u n i t t r a i n may be d i s t i n g u i s h e d from c o n v e n t i o n a l p r a c t i c e i n t h a t i t i s a s p e c i a l i z e d t r a i n prercanently coupled t o g e t h e r and operated as a s h u t t l e movement from p o i n t o f o r i g i n 9 t o p o i n t o f d e s t i n a t i o n on a f i x e d and d i s c i p l i n e d b a s i s . We s h a l l d i f f e r e n t i a t e between the u n i t t r a i n and the i n t e g r a l t r a i n , i n the case o f the former, the t r a i n can be broken i n t o segments f o r l o a d i n g or u n l o a d i n g ; the Lewis K. S i l l c o x , "The Ch a l l e n g e o f the U n i t T r a i n , " U n i t T r a i n O p e r a t i o n s , (Chicago: Railway Systems and Management A s s o c i a t i o n , January 19 67) , p. 5. second generation u n i t t r a i n i s the i n t e g r a l t r a i n c o n s i s t i n g of permanently coupled sets of cars and locomotives w i t h the cars designed f o r the p a r t i c u l a r s e r v i c e . In t h i s work the term u n i t t r a i n s h a l l i n c l u d e i n t e g r a l t r a i n . The u n i t t r a i n was f i r s t d evised i n the l a t e f i f t i e s t o haul c o a l and now moves over one-half the c o a l i n the United States i n a d d i t i o n to other bulk commodities such as i r o n ore, aluminum, g r a i n , s t e e l and sugar. The u n i t t r a i n o f f e r s c o n s i d e r a b l e c o s t savings through g r e a t l y improved u t i l i z a t i o n of equipment, v a s t r e d u c t i o n i n t e r m i n a l time, e l i m i n a t i o n of the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of cars w i t h the attendant yard c o s t s , the e f f i c i e n t use of crew labour, and the r e d u c t i o n of s u p e r v i s o r y , c l e r i c a l and o p e r a t i n g personnel. In o r d i n a r y s e r v i c e a car i s u t i l i z e d f o r 20 to 30 loaded t r i p s a year, i n s h u t t l e s e r v i c e , 180-200 t r i p s are not uncommon. In the broadest sense the u n i t t r a i n permits a r a t e r e d u c t i o n of approximately f i f t y per c e n t . ^ T r a i n s of ore, c o a l , or other bulk products vary from 30 t o 200 cars depending on the s i z e of the car and the a p p l i c a t i o n . The s p e c i a l l y designed cars used i n most of the a p p l i c a t i o n s have a c a p a c i t y of between 100 and 110 tons. In the case of c o a l the t r a i n s u s u a l l y range between 5,000 Robert N. M o r r i s , "The State of the U n i t T r a i n A r t , " U n i t T r a i n Operations, (Chicago: Railway Systems and Management A s s o c i a t i o n , January 1967), p. 13. and 10,000 n e t t o n s i n s i z e . I n some a p p l i c a t i o n s w i t h s i l o s t o r a g e l o a d i n g r a t e s o f 3,000 t o n s per hour a r e a c h i e v e d ; 1 1 t h e K a i s e r R e s o u r c e s l o a d i n g f a c i l i t y a t Sparwood and t h e i r c a r dumper a t Westshore T e r m i n a l s i s shown i n A ppendix I I I . There a r e i n s t a n c e s where c o a l i s l o a d e d a t 3,600 t o n s p e r hour (tph) u t i l i z i n g t h r e e f e e d e r s ; average u n l o a d i n g r a t e s o f 3,000 t p h a r e common f o r a r o t a r y c a r dumper (the Presque I s l e t e r m i n a l on t h e G r e a t Lakes has a two c a r c a p a c i t y r o t a r y dumper and can d e l i v e r c o a l a t a r a t e up t o 6,000 t p h t o s h i p s ) . The s a v i n g s r e s u l t i n g f r om i n c r e a s i n g t h e number o f c a r s i n a t r a i n o n l y a p p l i e s up t o a c e r t a i n l e v e l . There i s an optimum t r a i n s i z e , above w h i c h t h e advantages become o f f s e t w i t h t h e r i s i n g c o s t e f f e c t s o f h a n d l i n g e x c e e d i n g l y l o n g and e x t r e m e l y heavy t r a i n s . The p r o b l e m o f p a s s i n g t r a i n s i n s i n g l e t r a c k t e r r i t o r y , p u l l i n g o u t d r a w b a r s , r a i l w a y grade c r o s s i n g s , r e d u c e d t r a i n s peed, and t e r m i n -a l l i n g and h a n d l i n g e n t e r i n t o t h e optimum s i z e . B a i l e y has shown t h a t t h i s optimum i s i n t h e range o f 15,000 n e t 12 t o n s . 1 1 I b i d . , p. 1 2 . 12 A.G. B a i l e y , "The Economics o f U n i t T r a i n s , " U n i t T r a i n O p e r a t i o n s , ( C h i c a g o : R a i l w a y Systems and Manage-ment A s s o c i a t i o n , J a n u a r y 1 9 6 7 ) , p. 26. U n i t t r a i n s have a very demanding s e t of c o n d i t i o n s which must be met i f they are to be operated s u c c e s s f u l l y . These c o n d i t i o n s a r e : (a) sources of supply known i n advance and having a c c e p t a b l e l o a d i n g r a t e s , (b) p r e d i c t a b l e t i m i n g of consumption, (c) s u f f i c i e n t volume t o make the venture economic f o r s h i p p e r and c a r r i e r , (d) a c c e p t a b l e l o a d i n g / u n l o a d i n g r a t e s . CP R a i l U n i t T r a i n . The f i r s t u n i t t r a i n of 88 c a r s took 48 hours t o go between Sparwood and Roberts Bank a r r i v i n g t h e r e on A p r i l 30, 1970; a d d i t i o n a l t r a i n s were added u n t i l i n March 1971 CP R a i l added the f o u r t h 104 c a r i n t e g r a l t r a i n t o the run. Each t r a i n has a c a p a c i t y of over 10,500 to n s , each gondola c a r i s s p e c i a l l y d esigned, w i t h r o t a t a b l e c o u p l i n g and i s capable of c a r r y i n g 105 tons of c o a l . A f i f t h t r a i n of 50 c a r s i s a l s o operated by CP R a i l on t h i s r o u t e . The t r a i n s operate on a turnaround of s l i g h t l y over t h r e e days, and have an annual c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y of about 13 4.4 m i l l i o n t o n s . The o p e r a t i o n i s not a non-stop o p e r a t i o n . On the west-bound movement the t r a i n stops a t Golden f o r the a d d i t i o n of a f o u r u n i t head-end locomotive group and a m u l t i - u n i t pusher locomotive i s i n t r o d u c e d ; a l l u n i t s are Vancouver Sun, March 10, 1971. remotely c o n t r o l l e d . The pushers are dropped o f f at Stoney Creek and go back w i t h the empty t r a i n . The t r a i n s a l s o stop to change crews and slow t o ten mph w h i l e c r o s s i n g two b r i d g e s . 2. Terminal Component I t has been s t a t e d "Probably the g r e a t e s t s i n g l e f a c t o r making f o r reduced costs i n the maritime t r a n s p o r t 14 stage i s the shortening of the turnround time of s h i p s . The c o s t of ship's time spent i n p o r t i s a f u n c t i o n of: f i r s t , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and o p e r a t i o n a l procedures; and second, p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s at the t e r m i n a l . Improvement of p o r t s can p l a y an important p a r t i n reducing the c o s t s of maritime t r a n s p o r t and f a c i l i t a t i n g the flow of goods. This can be done by improvement (a) i n p o r t o p e r a t i o n , (b) of the t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t y , and (c) of the connection w i t h i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . A d m i n i s t r a t i v e and o p e r a t i o n a l procedures can be streamlined and made more e f f i c i e n t . T h i s , however, w i l l not be d e a l t w i t h here; n e i t h e r w i l l the r a i l system as i t i s considered elsewhere. The t e r m i n a l s i n the p o r t of Vancouver are considered i n Chapter IV, i n t h i s s e c t i o n we s h a l l d i s c u s s t e r m i n a l s i n United N a t i o n s , Conference on Trade and Development, Development of P o r t s ; Progress Report to the S e c r e t a r i a t , (TD/B/C.4/2 377 January 1967, p . I T g e n e r a l . T h i s w i l l be done from the s t a n d p o i n t of improving e f f i c i e n c y , and of a s c e r t a i n i n g f u t u r e requirements. In othe r words t o study the f u n c t i o n o f the t e r m i n a l as regards r e d u c i n g the time spent i n p o r t by s h i p s and r e d u c i n g the c o s t of cargo h a n d l i n g , both today and i n the f u t u r e . The storage and h a n d l i n g f a c i l i t y l i e s between land t r a n s p o r t and the sea component and i t i s important t h a t the o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h i s component have a t l e a s t the same degree of e f f i c i e n c y as o f f e r e d by l a n d and sea t r a n s p o r t . The c a p a c i t y of the t e r m i n a l must be such t h a t a t no time does i t p r o v i d e any c o n s t r a i n t on the c a p a c i t y or e f f i c i e n c y o f the o p e r a t i o n o f the i n l a n d and sea components. T h i s i s the same as s a y i n g t h a t the o v e r a l l c a p a c i t y o f the system i s equal t o the c a p a c i t y o f the necessary sub-system w i t h the lowest c a p a c i t y . We must be p r a c t i c a l , however, and keep i n mind t h a t i n p r o v i d i n g the r e q u i s i t e t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s the c a p a c i t y o f the d i f f e r e n t sub-systems are l i k e l y t o var y and i t w i l l be i m p o s s i b l e t o ensure t h a t a l l sub-systems have an optimum c a p a c i t y . The reason i s t h a t most items of c a p i t a l equipment have t o be i n s t a l l e d as complete u n i t s which are i n d i v i s i b l e , and as a consequence c a p a c i t y i n c r e a s e s i n b i g s t e p s . The c o n c l u s i o n i s , t h a t "the p o r t which i s o p e r a t i n g i n the optimum f a s h i o n i s most u n l i k e l y t o be o p e r a t i n g at an optimum w i t h i n each o f 15 the sub-systems of the p o r t system." 15 U n i t e d N a t i o n s , Conference on Trade and Development, Development of P o r t s ; Improvement o f P o r t Operations and Connected F a c i l i t i e s , (TD/B/C.4/42JT January 1969, p. 14. ^ 35 The Dynamic Optimum. The s t a t i c optimum i s con-cerned w i t h a s i t u a t i o n i n which a s t a b l e or c o n s t a n t flow of cargo i s assumed, and i n which f a c i l i t i e s are b e i n g changed o r b u i l t on a once and f o r a l l b a s i s , to secure an optimum r e l a t i o n s h i p between the f a c i l i t y and growth of commodity flow. The dynamic optimum, on the o t h e r hand, i s concerned w i t h the r e l a t i o n s h i p between the growth i n commodity flow i n time and the f a c i l i t i e s of the p o r t . The i d e a l i s t o achieve e f f i c i e n c y at each p o i n t i n time. However, t h i s i s u n l i k e l y t o be r e a l i z e d . To a chieve a dynamic optimum i t i s f i r s t n ecessary t o p r e d i c t the commodities and f o r e c a s t expected flows through the p o r t . T h i s has been done, b r o a d l y speaking, by c l a s s i f y -i n g cargo w i t h i n the c o n t e x t of the system, as s u i t a b l e or u n s u i t a b l e f o r b u l k s h i p p i n g . More p a r t i c u l a r l y t h i s i s done i n the c h a p t e r "Commodity Demand" where commodities are f i r s t c l a s s i f i e d from world t r a d e s t a t i s t i c s and then by a study of West Coast commodity movements. F o r e c a s t s i n a d d i t i o n , must i n c l u d e e s t i m a t e s of the s i z e and type of s h i p s i n which t h a t cargo w i l l be moved. " I t makes a g r e a t d e a l of d i f f e r e n c e t o the p l a n n i n g o f a p o r t whether 200,000 tons of cargo a month i s l i f t e d i n 20 16 c o n v e n t i o n a l tramp s h i p s or i n f o u r l a r g e bulk c a r r i e r s . " ^ I b i d . , p. 21. 36 The t e r m i n a l should be designed w i t h the o b j e c t i v e of m i n i m i z i n g the t o t a l c o s t of h a n d l i n g the m a t e r i a l s w h i l e c o n s i d e r i n g both the c o s t of d e l a y s to s h i p s and t r a i n s and the t o t a l investment i n t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s . E f f i c i e n c y i s dependent on f i v e p r i n c i p a l f a c t o r s : 1. The v a r i a b i l i t y of the a r r i v a l of l a n d and sea modes a t the t e r m i n a l . 2. The payload c a p a c i t y of the l a n d and sea c a r r i e r s . 3. The c o s t of i d l e n e s s of the c a r r i e r s . 4. The f i x e d and v a r i a b l e c o s t s of p r o v i d i n g t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s . 5. The l e v e l s of annual throughput and the market 17 v a l u e of the b u l k m a t e r i a l . I t has a l r e a d y been shown t h a t when the i n l a n d mode i s r a i l the i n l a n d system w i l l c o n s i s t o f a u n i t t r a i n of one k i n d or another. F.G. C u l b e r t and F.C. L e i g h t o n , " A p p l i c a t i o n of a D i g i t a l S i m u l a t i o n Model to the P l a n n i n g of a Bulk Commodity Deepsea Marine T e r m i n a l , " (paper p r e s e n t e d to Canadian T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Research Forum, Vancouver, May 1968), p. 3. 37 F U L L T R A I N . . E M P T Y T R A I N U N L O A D I N G R A T £ 3 S T O C K P I L E R E C L A I M R A T E S V E S S E L L O A D I N G FIGURE 3 F l o w Diagram o f B u l k T e r m i n a l O p e r a t i o n F i g u r e 3 shows a u n i t t r a i n u n l o a d i n g s t a t i o n , t h e s t o c k p i l e o r s u r g e c a p a c i t y p e r m i t s t h e t r a i n and s h i p t o o p e r a t e on i t s own s c h e d u l e and be in d e p e n d e n t one o f t h e o t h e r . T h i s i s o n l y t r u e , however, where t h e r e has been an o v e r a l l d e s i g n o r c o n s c i o u s e f f o r t t o o p t i m i z e t h e system. O v e r - d e s i g n r e s u l t s i n a more c o s t l y movement o f t h e commodity and a waste o f r e s o u r c e s . C o n s i d e r a b l e c o s t s a v i n g s a r e p o s s i b l e by p r o p e r t r a i n s c h e d u l i n g and s i z i n g o f t h e s t o c k p i l e , methods and r a t e s o f u n l o a d i n g and r e c l a i m i n g , e t c . 38 MAIN L I N E F U L L T R K ^ E M P T Y T R K (2) FIGURE 4 Schematic Diagram of T r a i n H a n d l i n g Systems a t T e r m i n a l The l a y o u t o f u n i t t r a i n t e r m i n a l s can take on a v a r i e t y of c o n f i g u r a t i o n s depending on i n d i v i d u a l circum-s t a n c e s . The F i g u r e shows s e v e r a l schematic r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of some c o n f i g u r a t i o n s . System 1 shows a common l a y o u t , i n which the u n i t t r a i n from the m a i n l i n e i s s p l i t f o r ease of h a n d l i n g i n the t e r m i n a l . T e r m i n a l times are g e n e r a l l y 24 t o 48 hours. System 2 shows a u n i t t r a i n on one s i d e of an u n l o a d i n g t e r m i n a l and s u f f i c i e n t t r a c k on the r i g h t to accommodate an empty t r a i n . System 3 p r o v i d e s the same convenience and e f f i c i e n c y as System 2 but on a loop which a l l o w s the t r a i n t o proceed i n the proper d i r e c t i o n without s w i t c h i n g l o c o m o t i v e s . Very s h o r t turnaround times are p o s s i b l e w i t h 2 and 3, turnaround i s l i m i t e d o n l y by proper t r a i n s c h e d u l i n g and the economics of the p a r t i c u l a r movement. Turnaround times of 1/2 to 4 hours are r e c o r d e d . Systems 4 i s a h i g h speed, h i g h c a p a c i t y system, u s e f u l i n cases where land i s v e r y r e s t r i c t e d . Although the c a r s must be uncoupled and r e c o u p l e d , the o p e r a t i o n s have been planned f o r minimum o p e r a t i n g labour. 1** 3. Ocean T r a n s p o r t System B r o a d l y speaking, ocean s h i p p i n g breaks down i n t o t h r e e s e p a r a t e types o f markets: (a) the l i q u i d b u l k cargo market, (b) the dry b u l k cargo market, (c) the d r y cargo l i n e r f r e i g h t (general cargo) market. The d e l i n e a t i o n of these markets i s not c l e a r and d i s t i n c t . T h i s p o i n t i s i l l u s t r a t e d f o r (a) and (b) i n F i g u r e 5. Each has spawned a p a r t i c u l a r v e s s e l type which b e s t s a t i s f i e s the requirements of the market. 18' R.E. Whipehart, " T e c h n o l o g i c a l Change and the U n i t T r a i n , " U n i t T r a i n O p e r a t i o n s , (Chicago: Pailway Systems and Management A s s o c i a t i o n , January 1967), p. 118. 40 DEEP-SEA TRADE COMPONENTS AND WORLD FLEET COMPONENTS CRUDE OIL OIL PRODUCTS MAIN DRY BULK COMMODITIES OTHER DRY BULK _T COMMODITIES TANKERS COMBINED CARRIERS BULK CARRIERS TRAMPS LINER TONNAGE SPECIALIZED TONNAGE FIGURE 5 V e s s e l Type i n R e l a t i o n to Shipping Market The l i q u i d bulk market i s served by tankers and t o a l e s s e r extent by the combined c a r r i e r s . The dry cargo market i s broken down i n t o two p a r t s . The f i r s t i s the general cargo market served by c o n t a i n e r v e s s e l s , by f r e i g h t l i n e r s and by the tramps. I t i s the other p a r t of t h i s m a r k e t — t h a t served by the bulk c a r r i e r f l e e t which i s of i n t e r e s t t o us here. The v e s s e l i t s e l f w i l l be considered i n S e c t i o n B of the f o l l o w i n g chapter. We s h a l l l i m i t o u r s e l v e s , at t h i s time, to a c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the c o s t of ocean t r a n s p o r t and the segments comprising the cost as w e l l as i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of those areas i n which economies can be r e a l i z e d . At the beginning of t h i s chapter, s i x items were l i s t e d as c o n t r i b u t i n g to the c o s t of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . Not 41 o n l y do they apply to the g e n e r a l case but they apply to the maritime stage i n p a r t i c u l a r . In t h i s s e c t i o n , as s t a t e d above, we are c h i e f l y concerned w i t h f a c t o r s which a f f e c t the c o s t o f maritime t r a n s p o r t . Ship s i z e and u t i l i z a t i o n are two of these f a c t o r s . The maritime stage i s a complex one, and as s h a l l be shown l a t e r , a very dynamic component o f the t r a n s p o r t system. W i t h i n the stage t h e r e are t h r e e d i f f e r e n t types of c o s t s : (a) o f s h i p ' s time spent i n p o r t , (b) o f s h i p ' s time spent at sea, and (c) a m o r t i z a t i o n of c a p i t a l c o s t . The c o s t o f s h i p ' s time i n p o r t i s a f u n c t i o n of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and o p e r a t i o n a l procedures and the p h y s i c a l f a c i l i t i e s a t the t e r m i n a l . Both of these w i l l be t r e a t e d l a t e r , w h i l e the l a t t e r i s c o n s i d e r e d above under The T e r m i n a l Component. The two remaining c o s t s are a r e s u l t of the s i z e of v e s s e l and i t s method of p r o p u l s i o n . Advances i n h u l l d e s i g n , w elding and p r e - f a b r i c a t i o n have enabled l a r g e r s h i p s t o be b u i l t a t l e s s c o s t per ton than f o r s m a l l s h i p s . P a r a l l e l i n g t h i s , new methods of p r o p u l s i o n enables the super s h i p t o be d r i v e n by a s m a l l e r horsepower per ton r a t i o than i s n e c e s s a r y f o r c o n v e n t i o n a l v e s s e l s . There i s a very c o n s i d e r a b l e f r e i g h t s a v i n g i n l a r g e s h i p s . For i n s t a n c e a 1970 UN r e p o r t o b s e r v i n g t h a t f r e i g h t r a t e s had been brought down t o $0.50 per thousand t o n - m i l e s s t a t e d : "The lower r a t e s have g r e a t l y broadened and extended the p a t t e r n s of i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e and these have had a 19 marked i n f l u e n c e on the e v a l u a t i o n of i r o n ore r e s o u r c e s . " T h i s f r e i g h t r e d u c t i o n i s a t t r i b u t e d t o the use of 20 super bu l k c a r r i e r s . O p e r a t i n g c o s t s i n p o r t of a modern super c a r r i e r may be as h i g h as 7 5 per cent of those at sea. In o r d e r then t o be used e f f i c i e n t l y such v e s s e l s must be loaded and unloaded a t the maximum p o s s i b l e speed. Modern p o r t s are equipped w i t h l o a d i n g c a p a b i l i t y of 3,000 t o 21 8,000 tons per hour, the m a j o r i t y , I would say, between t h r e e and s i x thousand r a t h e r than over s i x . J.G. B a u d e l a i r e ' s work has shown t h a t p o r t charges and h a n d l i n g expenses account f o r about 30 per cent of the 22 t o t a l c o s t i n v o l v e d i n the t r a n s p o r t of goods by sea. Oram has shown t h a t t h e r e i s a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n between the s i z e of the c a r r i e r and the c o s t per t o n . As the s h i p s i z e i n c r e a s e s , the c o s t a t sea f a l l s more r a p i d l y 19 U n i t e d N a t i o n s , Department of Economic and S o c i a l A f f a i r s , Survey of World I r o n Ore Resources: Occurrence and  A p p r a i s a l (ST/ECA7113) , 19~7l5T p. 20 U n i t e d N a t i o n s , Economic Commission f o r Europe, The World Market f o r I r o n Ore 19 68, (United N a t i o n s , 1968), p. 5. 2 1 I b i d . , p. 95. 22 J.G. B a u d e l a i r e , P o r t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , ( D e l f t N e t h e r l a n d s : I n t e r n a t i o n a l Course i n H y d r a u l i c E n g i n e e r i n g , 1966), V o l . I, 3rd e d i t i o n , p. 101. 43 23 t h a n t h e c o s t i n p o r t r i s e s . T h i s does n o t , however, c o n t i n u e i n d e f i n i t e l y . Ross has s t a t e d t h a t f o r l o n g voyages t h e c o s t c u r v e f l a t t e n s o u t a f t e r 200,000 t o n s i s r e a c h e d 24 w h i l e f o r s h o r t voyages t h e c o s t a c t u a l l y i n c r e a s e s . The c o s t s o f ocean t r a n s p o r t can t h e n be d e c r e a s e d by e m p l o y i n g t h e s e super c a r r i e r s , t h i s f a c t i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 4. The lo w e r c o s t i s due t o a l o w e r u n i t (per deadweight ton) c a p i t a l c o s t and t o lo w e r u n i t o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a t sea and i n p o r t . A t t h e same t i m e a u t o m a t i o n has e n a b l e d t h e v e r y l a r g e s h i p s t o o p e r a t e w i t h t h e same number o f p e r s o n n e l as does t h e o l d e r s m a l l e r s h i p s . T h i s economy i s n o t open t o a l l new v e s s e l s as t h e c o s t o f a u t o m a t i o n c a n n o t be j u s t i f i e d by t h e p a y l o a d o f s m a l l e r v e s s e l s . O t h e r F a c t o r s I n f l u e n c i n g S h i p S i z e . There a r e a s s o c i a t e d t e c h n o l o g i c a l and s e r v i c i n g f a c t o r s w h i c h g o v e r n s e l e c t i o n o f s h i p s i z e i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e d e s i r e o f t h e ship-owner t o t r a n s p o r t as much as p o s s i b l e on each voyage. The growth o f t h e s u p e r t a n k e r f l e e t was r e s t r i c t e d by t h e l a c k o f r e p a i r y a r d s f o r d r y d o c k i n g super t a n k e r s . T h i s s i t u a t i o n has been a m e l i o r a t e d t o a l a r g e e x t e n t and 23 R.B. Oram, Cargo H a n d l i n g and t h e Modern P o r t , ( O x f o r d : Germamon P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 ), p. 1 2 1 . 2 4 I . S . R o s s , "Trends i n B u l k Ocean T r a n s p o r t , " F a i r p l a y No. 4 5 2 0 , A p r i l 9, 1970, p. 4 7 . 44 poses no problem to bulk c a r r i e r s which have tended t o remain s m a l l e r than tankers both i n leng t h and d r a f t . By the same token yards capable of b u i l d i n g tankers have the necessary c a p a c i t y and technology which permits the c o n s t r u c t i o n of bulk c a r r i e r s . The l a c k of s u i t a b l e l o a d i n g and unloading f a c i l i t i e s at source and r e c e i v i n g p o r t s have reta r d e d the growth of super dry bulk c a r r i e r s . S u i t a b l e marine f a c i l i t i e s are major investments which can only be j u s t i f i e d where one or more very l a r g e trade flows are i n v o l v e d . These flows may be of s i n g l e commodities or a mixture of commodities i n cases where the throughput of each i s not s u f f i c i e n t to j u s t i f y the investment i n hand l i n g f a c i l i t i e s . In a d d i t i o n t h e ' a v a i l a b i l i t y of backhaul cargoes a l l i n f l u e n c e the use of l a r g e bulk c a r r i e r s . This w i l l be elab o r a t e d on i n the f o l l o w i n g chapter. Another f a c t o r which a f f e c t s s i z e i s the r e s t r i c t i o n imposed by major waterways such as the Suez Canal (beam 128 f e e t , d r a f t 38 f e e t ) ; Panama Canal (beam 104 f e e t , d r a f t 36 f e e t to 38.5 f e e t , l e n g t h 835 f e e t ) ; E n g l i s h Channel, 25 and S t r a i t s of Malacca (60.5 f e e t ) . Trevor D. Heaver, The Economics of V e s s e l S i z e , (Ottawa: N a t i o n a l Harbours BoardT 1968) , pT 2W. TABLE 4 ESTIMATED SAVINGS BY USE OF LARGE SHIPS IN PLACE OF SMALL SHIPS cents per ton of cargo Large Ship Small Ship I n t e r p o r t Distances M i l e s •000 d.w.t. '000 d.w.t. 3000 4000 5000 6000 8000 1000 12000 50 30 18 29 39 49 73 93 115 Q fl 50 36 47 57 70 91 109 133 30 55 78 96 120 164 203 247 90 7 10 13 15 21 29 34 120 50 44 57 73 86 112 135 167 30 65 88 112 135 185 232 281 120 7 7 10 13 18 21 23 90 15 21 23 29 39 49 57 I J U 50 52 67 83 99 130 159 190 30 73 96 122 148 200 252 304 150 5 5 7 7 10 13 16 120 10 15 18 21 29 34 39 210 90 21 29 31 36 49 62 73 50 57 73 88 107 138 172 206 30 75 101 127 156 210 275 320 Source: Metra C o n s u l t i n g Group L i m i t e d , Deep Water Harbour Study, 1969. 46 Scale of Operations. The lower u n i t c a p i t a l and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s f o r super c a r r i e r s compared w i t h tramp ships or even s m a l l e r bulk c a r r i e r s can only be r e a l i z e d i f the sh i p i s c a r r y i n g a payload and the r a t e of l o a d i n g and un-l o a d i n g a t the source and r e c e i v i n g p o r t s keeps the percentage 2 6 of time spent i n p o r t w i t h i n p r a c t i c a l l i m i t s . The s c a l e of operations which j u s t i f i e s a modern marine t e r m i n a l i s c l o s e l y l i n k e d w i t h the type of i n d u s t r y and the s i z e of the markets. Because of the nature of the raw m a t e r i a l s and the l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s i n v o l v e d , users of l a r g e ships are confined t o primary manufacturing or process-in g i n d u s t r i e s . Metra, i n commenting on the s i t u a t i o n up to 1969, s t a t e d t h a t the trend towards the use of ships i n excess of 50,000 dwt has been almost e x c l u s i v e l y confined t o petroleum r e f i n i n g and s t e e l p r o d u c t i o n . I t i s t h e i r con-t e n t i o n t h a t f i v e ^ t o seven m i l l i o n tons of end product i s necessary t o j u s t i f y the i n c r e a s e d c o s t of s t o c k p i l e at the t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t y . Shipment by S l u r r y . Some s o l i d commodities, notably wood chips and i r o n ore, are being loaded aboard ships by means of pumps. At the present time both are s m a l l i n s c a l e , although great promise i s h e l d f o r the t r a n s p o r t of i r o n 2 6 Canada-Japan Trade C o u n c i l , Newsletter, November 7, 1970, p. 2. o r e as a s l u r r y by Marcona C o r p o r a t i o n , t h e o r i g i n a t o r s o f t h e p r o c e s s . Marcona have been s u p p l y i n g Oregon S t e e l M i l l s o f P o r t l a n d s i n c e J u l y 1969 u t i l i z i n g a c o n v e r t e d o r e / o i l c a r r i e r c a p a b l e o f t r a n s p o r t i n g 50,000 t o n s . The p r o c e d u r e i s a v e r y s i m p l e one i n t h a t t h e i r o n o r e c o n c e n t r a t e s a r e pumped aboard s h i p i n a s l u r r y , t h e s l u r r y b e i n g t h i r t y p e r c e n t w a t e r by w e i g h t . The m i x t u r e s e t t l e s and t h e w a t e r i s d e c a n t e d , l e a v i n g 8 t o 10 per c e n t w a t e r c o n t e n t . A t t h e d e s t i n a t i o n h i g h p r e s s u r e j e t s i n t h e bottom o f t h e h o l d c u t i n t o and l i q u i f y t h e c a r g o r e a d y f o r pumping a s h o r e t o a h o l d i n g pond. The system r e d u c e s l o a d i n g and u n l o a d i n g c o s t s c o n s i d e r a b l y — M a r c o n a c l a i m by n i n e t y p e r c e n t . I n a d d i t i o n t h e s h i p can be l o a d e d and un l o a d e d a t a d i s t a n c e from s h o r e o f f e r i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e p o t e n t i a l f o r an o f f - s h o r e m o o r i n g where h a r b o u r s a r e s h a l l o w . A t t h e moment t h e p r o c e s s i s o n l y used f o r p e l l e t i z i n g p l a n t s p r o d u c i n g a l m o s t 27 pure i r o n o x i d e f o r d i r e c t use i n e l e c t r i c s t e e l making. A l t h o u g h t h e f u t u r e c annot be p r e d i c t e d w i t h any c e r t a i n t y t h e p r o c e s s has been p r o v e n f e a s i b l e and o f f e r s c o n s i d e r a b l e s c ope. Summary. The movement o f b u l k m a t e r i a l s i s t h e n a system w h i c h r e q u i r e s t h a t a l l components be c o n s i d e r e d I n t e r v i e w w i t h Marcona C o r p o r a t i o n , A p r i l 30, 1970. 48 when d e c i s i o n s are made rega r d i n g any i n d i v i d u a l sub-system. This has been, and remains d i f f i c u l t as each of the sub-systems i s c o n t r o l l e d by d i f f e r e n t f i r m s each having d i f f e r e n t p r i o r i t i e s and o b j e c t i v e s . This s e c t i o n has shown t h a t ocean t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s decrease as a r e s u l t of in c r e a s e s i n the s i z e of s h i p s . The reduced c o s t , however, can only come about i f the amount of time spent i n port i s reduced. As s t a t e d e a r l i e r , the c a p a c i t y of the system i s dependent on the c a p a c i t y of the t e r m i n a l or i t s throughput c a p a b i l i t y . Inherent i n t h i s idea i s t h a t s u f f i c i e n t s t o c k p i l e or surge c a p a c i t y be provided at the t e r m i n a l and t h a t the i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t system i s capable of d e l i v e r i n g the d e s i r e d tonnage t o r e p l e n i s h the s t o c k p i l e . There appear t o be two a l t e r n a t i v e s open f o r supply-i n g t e r m i n a l s — t h e u n i t t r a i n and the s o l i d s p i p e l i n e . The use of p i p e l i n e s on a l a r g e s c a l e i s imminent; however, u n t i l they are proven under v a r i o u s o p e r a t i n g s i t u a t i o n s to be more economical than r a i l , u n i t t r a i n s w i l l continue to be used and any design must take t h i s i n l a n d mode i n t o account. To r e c e i v e an i n t e g r a l t r a i n , a s p e c i a l i z e d t r a c k l a y o u t (System 3 of Figur e 4) i s necessary. Depending on the l e n g t h of the t r a i n , up t o two mi l e s of continuous t r a c k 2 8 i s r e q u i r e d . Some a u t h o r i t i e s have s a i d t h a t up t o 100 2 8 Swan Wooster Newsletter, no date. a c r e s should be p r o v i d e d per t e r m i n a l . I t has been i n f e r r e d t h a t , i n f u t u r e , b u l k commodities would i n c r e a s i n g l y be c a r r i e d i n l a r g e s h i p s i n o r d e r t o take advantage of the savings i n t r a n s p o r t c o s t . In the next chapter we s h a l l show what products are i n f a c t s e c u r i n g t h i s advantage and how t h i s demand i s a f f e c t i n g s h i p s i z e . B.D.L. Johnson, "Port Management and Development," i n Symposium on the P o r t o f Vancouver, ed. by R.W. C o l l i e r (Department of E x t e n s i o n , The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1966), p. 31. CHAPTER I I I COMMODITY DEMAND AND THE SUPPLY OF SHIPPING Shipping can be considered from two p o i n t s of view, the demand f o r , and the supply of s h i p p i n g s e r v i c e s . An examination of these gives an understanding of f u t u r e trade p a t t e r n s and permits us t o p r e d i c t f u t u r e requirements as to s h i p s i z e , and f l e e t type and volume. In other words, by b r i n g i n g together and a n a l y z i n g i n f o r m a t i o n on the source and markets f o r raw m a t e r i a l s , trade f l o w s , shipping' o p e r a t i o n s , t e c h n o l o g i c a l requirements, the use so f a r developed of b i g s h i p s , we can determine; f i r s t , those c o n s i d e r a t i o n s which i n d i c a t e a need f o r modern marine t e r m i n a l s , and second, those which govern the l o c a t i o n of t e r m i n a l s . In sho r t we w i l l determine the t r a f f i c and cargo flow c o n d i t i o n s under which an e f f i c i e n t system would operate. The chapter i s d i v i d e d i n t o two s e c t i o n s , S e c t i o n A analyzes world commodity supply and demand and then looks at Canadian raw m a t e r i a l s p r o d u c t i o n which a f f e c t s commodity flow through West Coast p o r t s . S e c t i o n B then looks at the e x i s t i n g world f l e e t , a n a l y z i n g recent d e l i v e r i e s and orders and p r e d i c t i n g trends i n the bulk c a r r i e r f l e e t i n general and s i z e trends i n ships movement of the commodities 51 i d e n t i f i e d i n A. Bulk t e r m i n a l requirements are e s t a b l i s h e d and c o n c l u s i o n s s t a t e d i n s u b - s e c t i o n ( c ) . A. THE DEMAND FOR SHIPPING SERVICE Shipping demand i s determined c h i e f l y by two f a c t o r s . These are cargo volume (supply) and t r a n s p o r t d i s t a n c e s . Transport d i s t a n c e w i l l be t r e a t e d under B, although the average f o r a commodity w i l l be given i n t h i s s e c t i o n . Looking a t cargo supply, we can surmise t h a t i t i s the world demand f o r commodities and the world supply of these same commodities which c r e a t e the demand f o r s h i p p i n g s e r v i c e . The a n a l y s i s c o n s i s t s of three steps. F i r s t , s i n c e we have p o s t u l a t e d t h a t bulk c a r r i e r s w i l l be used i n the trades we have under c o n s i d e r a t i o n , we s h a l l determine those commodities which move i n bulk i n a world-wide sense. This l i s t w i l l be r e f i n e d to exclude those u n l i k e l y t o be t r a n s -ported by super bulk c a r r i e r . Second, we s h a l l i s o l a t e those commodities which move i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s from the West Coast of Canada to enable a bulk s h i p p i n g o p e r a t i o n t o be considered. Our search does not stop t h e r e , as there may be a commodity p r e s e n t l y produced or s o l d i n l i m i t e d q u a n t i t i e s which could support a v i a b l e bulk o p e r a t i o n given a change i n a f a c t o r of production or market c o n d i t i o n s . In other words i t i s not enough t h a t we i n v e s t i g a t e e x i s t i n g c o n d i t i o n s as lower t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s could open up new 52 sources of raw m a t e r i a l s . I t i s t h i s very f a c t t h a t i s the r a i s o n d'etre f o r the study. Another source which must not be overlooked i s the p o s s i b i l i t y of United S t a t e s 1 products moving through a Canadian p o r t . T h i r d , we s h a l l determine i f trade i n the commodities places l i m i t a t i o n s on the s i z e of s h i p which w i l l be used f o r the movement of bulk commodities. These l i m i t a t i o n s are: the depth of water at source and r e c e i v i n g p o r t s , the i n t e r p o r t d i s t a n c e on major r o u t e s , and the volume of commodities on each r o u t e . Since the a v a i l a b i l i t y of a commodity does not ensure t h a t the commodity w i l l be s o l d and t r a n s p o r t e d , i t i s necessary t h a t we look b r i e f l y a t the r e c e i v i n g l o c a t i o n s , and determine the consequences of p r i c e . As s t a t e d e a r l i e r commodity flows e x e r t an i n f l u e n c e on t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g . In order to a s c e r t a i n t h i s i n f l u e n c e we s h a l l examine past and present commodity flow movements; f i r s t on a worldwide s c a l e and then having regards to West Coast Canada. S t a t i s t i c a l data c o v e r i n g the v a r i o u s commodities w i l l be presented and c e r t a i n aspects noted f o r the b e n e f i t of the reader. No attempt w i l l be made t o make p r o j e c t i o n s based on past t r e n d s . However, s i n c e f u t u r e trends are v i t a l t o our study, f o r e c a s t s made by va r i o u s bodies: government agencies, i n d u s t r y , and c o n s u l t a n t s are ta b u l a t e d . 53 1. World Commodity Demand and Supply During the s i x t i e s dry cargo movements have been i n c r e a s i n g at an annual r a t e of about 7 t o 8 per cent. To meet t h i s r a t e of growth the dry cargo f l e e t has expanded at some 5 t o 6 per cent."'" In 1969 (1968 percentage i s given i n brackets) g r a i n i n dry cargo v e s s e l s accounted f o r 44 (44) per cent of a l l tonnage f i x e d , ores f o r 18 (17) , and c o a l f o r 16 (13) per cent, f e r t i l i z e r s ( i n c l u d i n g common s a l t ) i r o n and s t e e l s crap, and sugar made up between them 13 (15) per cent. Fearnley & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Co. L t d . have been c a r r y i n g out annual surveys of bulk commodity movements based on o f f i c i a l import/export s t a t i s t i c s p l u s t h e i r own researches. Examination of Table 5 shows t h a t the same e i g h t commodities top the l i s t i n terms of tonnage and t r a n s p o r t performance each year s i n c e 1966. The t a b l e a l s o shows t h a t , w i t h the exception of g r a i n performance, both tonnage shipped and t o n -m i l e s have increased each year from 1966 through 1968 f o r the f i r s t f i v e commodities. We can immediately e l i m i n a t e softwoods from c o n s i d e r -a t i o n as i t i s not a bulk commodity i n the sense accepted f o r t h i s study. This e x c l u s i o n i s not r i g i d , however, and "Factors I n f l u e n c i n g the S i z e of World F l e e t s , " Shipping World and S h i p b u i l d e r , November 19 69, p. 1544. TABLE 5 LIFTINGS AND TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR BULK COMMODITIES 1966-68 1966 1967 1968 Tonnage T r a n s p o r t Performance Tonnage T r a n s p o r t Performance Tonnage T r a n s p o r t Performance Ir o n ore 153 575 164 651 188 775 G r a i n 76 408 68 380 65 340 C o a l 61 226 67 269 73 310 Phosphates 28 98 30 107 32 119 Bau x i t e and alumina 23 55 25 62 26 70 Sugar 21 Manganese ore 8 34 7 32 Softwoods 22 Source: F e a r n l e y and Eger's C h a r t e r i n g Company L i m i t e d . Note: T r a n s p o r t performance i s a measure of weight (ton) c a r r i e d over a d i s t a n c e ( m i l e ) . L i f t i n g s i n m i l l i o n m e t r i c tons. T r a n s p o r t performance i n 1,000 m i l l i o n t o n -m i l e s . 55 t h i s p o s i t i o n would a l t e r i f the wood were reduced to wood-chips (see d i s c u s s i o n on s o l i d s p i p e l i n e ) . We s h a l l e l a b o r a t e on the f i r s t f i v e as they c o n s t i t u t e , by f a r , the l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of the t o t a l and a l l f i g u r e i n some way i n a p o s s i b l e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p i c t u r e f o r the West Coast. The s i x t h commodity—sugar, c o n s t i t u t e s a s p e c i a l case as i t i s an import and a food and must be handled i n a separate manner from other bulk commodities. Manganese c o n s t i t u t e s the s m a l l e s t volume on a world s c a l e and s i n c e i t i s not shipped v i a the west coast i t w i l l not be considered. We are then l e f t w i t h (a) i r o n ore, (b) c o a l , (c) g r a i n , (d) phosphate, (e) b a u x i t e and alumina. (a) Iron Ore World production of s t e e l amounted to 573.8 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tons i n 1969, a r i s e of 8.1 per cent over 1968. The l e a d i n g s t e e l producers i n 1969 are given below i n Table 6 TABLE 6 LEADING STEEL PRODUCING REGIONS 1969 Country or Region M i l l i o n s of M e t r i c Tons Growth Rate 1968-69 USA 128.0 7.3% USSR 110.0 3.3% EEC 107.3 8.8% Japan 82.2 22. 8% Source: Canada-Japan Trade C o u n c i l , Canadian M i n e r a l s and  the Japanese Market, May 1 9 7 0 , p. I T . The Japanese s t e e l i n d u s t r y grew a t a much f a s t e r r a t e between 1968 and 1969 than d i d the i n d u s t r y i n other p a r t s of the world. This r a p i d expansion has not been p e c u l i a r t o t h i s one year p e r i o d . Because of the l o c a t i o n a l advantage of B r i t i s h Columbia w i t h regard t o t h i s market a short term f o r e c a s t of Japanese s t e e l p r o d u c t i o n , coking c o a l and i r o n ore requirements i s presented i n Table 7. TABLE 7 JAPANESE STEEL PRODUCTION FORECASTS TO 1983 m i l l i o n s of m e t r i c tons Year S t e e l Output Requirements Coking Coal I r o n Ore 1969 82.2 na na 1970 96.5 na 110.0 1973 111.6 71.0 144.0 1978 143.0 100.0 231.0 1983 191.0 115.0 309.0 Source; Canada-Japan Trade C o u n c i l , Canadian M i n e r a l s and the Japanese Market, May 1970, p. 15, and Canadian  Coal f o r Japan, September 1969. (b) Coal Table 8 shows the p r i n c i p a l c o a l movements i n 1969 and the q u a n t i t i e s imported by the major consumers f o r 1967-69. I t can be r e a d i l y seen t h a t the tonnage moved has incre a s e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y d u r i n g t h i s three year p e r i o d . Some b r i e f comments on s e l e c t e d c o u n t r i e s w i l l be made because of the e f f e c t s on the Canadian c o a l i n d u s t r y . Japan accounted f o r 95 per cent of the increased consumption which took place between 1967 and 1969. In 1968 t o t a l imports were 32.4 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tons, and p r e l i m i n a r y f i g u r e s f o r 1969 i n d i -cate t h a t 3 8.3 m i l l i o n m e t r i c tons were imported. A f o r e c a s t of f u t u r e Japanese coking c o a l requirements i s given i n Table 7 above. Since 1957, Canada has s u p p l i e d a s m a l l but s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of the Japanese requirements; t h i s f i g u r e decreased s l i g h t l y to 1.21 m i l l i o n tons i n 1969. The United S t a t e s ' share of t h i s market i s roughly 40 per cent. T h e i r share has decreased from 80 per cent i n the l a t e f i f t i e s and i s expected t o d e c l i n e even f u r t h e r . A u s t r a l i a has become the s i g n i f i c a n t s u p p l i e r , a l l t h i s has taken place over the past decade and A u s t r a l i a n c o a l now accounts f o r 40 per cent of imports. The Canada-Japan Trade C o u n c i l has s t a t e d t h a t A u s t r a l i a w i l l be the major source 2 of s u p p l i e s i n the s e v e n t i e s . A u s t r a l i a possesses l a r g e reserves of c o a l ; m e t a l l u r -g i c a l c o a l i s mainly confined t o two areas, the Sydney B a s i n of New South Wales and Bowen Basin of Queensland. The low co s t c o a l l i e s on or c l o s e to the eastern seaboard and has become a major competitor on the world's markets. In 1968 K.A.J. Hay, Canadian Coal f o r Japan, (Ottawa: The Canada-Japan Trade C o u n c i l ) , September 1969). TABLE 8 PRINCIPAL COAL MOVEMENTS IN 1969 P r e l i m i n a r y f i g u r e s - i n thousand m e t r i c tons ^ - ^ ^ To Germany I t a l y Other South Japan T o t a l T o t a l T o t a l From (F.R.) EEC America 1969 1968 1967 U n i t e d S t a t e s 3,032 3,394 4,054 2,637 19,313 32,430 27,674 28,257 U n i t e d Kingdom 1,336 298 1,299 - - 2,933 2,180 1,375 A u s t r a l i a - - - - 15,248 15,248 11,917 8,963 South A f r i c a 15 190 30 - 382 617 540 507 USSR 32 1,893 1,752 - 2,214 5,891 5,873 5,553 Poland 540 2,139 1,832 250 1,136 5,897 5,018 3,758 T o t a l 1969 4,955 7,914 8,967 2,887 38,293 63,016 T o t a l 1968 4,691 7,789 7,702 2,609 30,411 53,202 T o t a l 1967 5,024 8,560 8,786 2,588 23,455 48,413 Source: F e a r n l e y and Eger's C h a r t e r i n g Company L i m i t e d . Ul CO p r o d u c t i o n r e a c h e d 40.2 m i l l i o n l o n g t o n s w h i l e e x p o r t s were about 12.3 m i l l i o n t o n s w i t h 12 m i l l i o n g o i n g t o Japan. The U n i t e d S t a t e s i s t h e w o r l d ' s l a r g e s t c o a l e x p o r t e r . The b u l k o f t h e c o k i n g c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e i n t h e e a s t e r n p a r t o f t h e c o u n t r y . The p r i n c i p a l f o r e i g n markets f o r U n i t e d S t a t e s c o a l a r e Europe, Canada and Jap a n . Canada i s t h e l a r g e s t s i n g l e consumer. (c) Grain I n 1968 t o t a l movements o f 65 m i l l i o n t o n s were s l i g h t l y below t h e 68 m i l l i o n t o n s i n 1967 w h i c h i n t u r n were somewhat below t h e 1966 volume o f 76 m i l l i o n t o n s . The ch a n g i n g t r a d e p a t t e r n s do n o t show any c l e a r t r e n d ; t h i s f a c t i s e v i d e n c e d by t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t o t a l volumes and average t r a n s p o r t d i s t a n c e o f w o r l d g r a i n movements i n t h e p e r i o d 1961-1968. TABLE 9 WORLD GRAIN TRADE, VOLUME AND TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE 1961-1968 1960-100 GRAIN 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968  Tonnage s h i p p e d 124 115 128 154 152 165 148 141 T r a n s p o r t p e r f o r m - 114 110 123 152 156 165 153 137 ance S o u r c e : OECD, M a r i t i m e T r a n s p o r t 1969 60 3 U n t x l 1969 the high average t r a d i n g d i s t a n c e made g r a i n second i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l seaborne t r a d e , a f t e r i r o n ore. This s i t u a t i o n has now changed and c o a l i s i n second p l a c e . One important t h i n g which whould be r e a l i z e d by anyone undertaking a study of g r a i n i s th a t the movement of g r a i n i n bulk c a r r i e r s i s i n c r e a s i n g and has been s i n c e 1965. For i n s t a n c e , shipments i n bulk c a r r i e r rose by 10 m i l l i o n tons from 1967 t o 1968. The d i s t r i b u t i o n of v e s s e l s used i n 1968 i n the g r a i n trades according t o types and s i z e s i s given i n Table 10. TABLE 10 SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF GRAIN CARRIERS, 1968 In per cent of t o t a l g r a i n shipments Type and S i z e of V e s s e l 1968 Bulk c a r r i e r s T o t a l 61 of which over 80,000 dwt -60,000 t o 80,000 dwt -40,000 to 60,000 dwt 10 25,000 t o 40,000 dwt 30 18,000 t o 25,000 dwt 21 Other v e s s e l s 39 T o t a l 100 Source: Fearnley & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Company L i m i t e d . G r a i n moved an average of 5,200 mil e s i n 1968 w h i l e a l l f i v e bulk commodities had an average t r a d i n g d i s t a n c e of 4,200 m i l e s . 6 1 (d) Phosphates In 1 9 6 7 , world production of phosphate rock was 7 6 m i l l i o n tons, an increase of two m i l l i o n tons over 1 9 6 6 and 1 2 m i l l i o n tons over the previous year. Of more importance to us, i n t e r n a t i o n a l seaborne trade a l s o increased by about two m i l l i o n tons t o n e a r l y 3 0 m i l l i o n tons. The United States i s the p r i n c i p a l e x p o r t i n g country although about h a l f the world phosphate shipments are from A f r i c a . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n performance (Measured i n ton-miles) of s h i p -ments from United States accounted f o r 49 per cent and from 4 Morocco f o r 24 per cent of world t r a d e . Phosphate rock i s a major raw m a t e r i a l f o r the f e r t i l i z e r i n d u s t r y , production of one ton of phosphoric a c i d r e q u i r e s approximately one ton of sulphur and three tons of phosphate rock. At present the main phosphate ports—Tampa, F l o r i d a ; S a f i , Morocco; and Sfax, T u n i s i a ; are unable t o take ships of over 4 0 , 0 0 0 dwt. Metra have s t a t e d , however, t h a t the p o r t s w i l l probably be capable of accommodating 8 0 , 0 0 0 dwt ships by 1 9 8 0 . 5 According t o OECD, bulk c a r r i e r s were l e s s prominent i n phosphate shipments than i n other major bulk t r a d e s . OECD, Maritime Transport 1 9 6 9 , p. 3 6 . ^Metra C o n s u l t i n g Group L i m i t e d , Deep Water Harbour Study, (London: Metra C o n s u l t i n g Group L i m i t e d , 1 9 6 9 ) , p. 5~6~. 62 However, t h e s h a r e has i n c r e a s e d from 30 per c e n t i n 1966 t o 39 per c e n t i n 1967 when measured i n t o n - m i l e s . S i x t y - s e v e n per c e n t o f t h e tonnage s h i p p e d i s i n v e s s e l s below 14,000 dwt, 22 p e r c e n t by b u l k c a r r i e r s between 14-25 and 11 p e r c e n t by v e s s e l s o v e r 25,000 dwt.^ (e) Bauxite and alumina The p r o d u c t i o n o f aluminum m e t a l i s a two s t a g e p r o c e s s i n v o l v i n g f i r s t t h e c a l c i n i n g o f t h e o r e B a u x i t e t o a l u m i n a , f o l l o w e d by e l e c t r o l y s i s o f a l u m i n a t o t h e m e t a l . There i s a r e d u c t i o n i n volume i n t h e p r o c e s s — a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2:1 i n each s t a g e . The e x p o r t s o f b a u x i t e and a l u m i n a from major s u p p l y a r e a s t o major u s e r a r e a s a r e shown f o r 1966 i n T a b l e 11. A l c a n e s t i m a t e s t h e usage o f b a u x i t e i n t h e non-communist w o r l d i n 1970 a t between 40 and 45 m i l l i o n t o n s . I n 19 67, 68 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l seaborne b a u x i t e and al u m i n a t r a d e was t r a n s p o r t e d by b u l k c a r r i e r as a g a i n s t 65 p e r c e n t i n 1966 and t h e same p e r c e n t a g e i n 1965. I n s p i t e o f t h e r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t average t r a n s p o r t d i s t a n c e s i n t h i s t r a d e (2,500 m i l e s ) 45 p e r c e n t o f t h e shipments were made i n v e s s e l s o v e r 25,000 dwt. The r e p o r t M a r i t i m e T r a n s p o r t OECD, Maritime T r a n s p o r t 1969, p. 36. TABLE 11 BAUXITE AND ALUMINA, TOTAL SEABORNE TRADE 1966 , n n n ^ '000 tons ^ ^ ^ ^ To From ^ ^ - ^ ^ ^ U.S.A. Canada Japan U.K/ C o n t i n e n t I t a l y Norway Others World Jamaica 7,923 534 - 5 - 166 48 8,676 Surinam 3,791 843 18 135 4 106 31 4,928 Guyana 524 1,842 29 121 16 77 84 2,693 Other America 1,223 223 - 10 2 115 65 1,638 A f r i c a 60 39 - 534 193 117 145 1,088 A s i a 59 375 1,242 89 52 10 379 2,206 Mediterranean 53 - - 602 295 32 190 1,172 A u s t r a l i a 17 ' i o . 630 332 1 - - 990 Other 1 - - 2 8 3 1 15 World 13,651 3,866 1,919 1,830 571 626 943 23,406 Source: Metra C o n s u l t i n g Group L i m i t e d , Deep Water Harbour Study, 1969. L O 64 1968 s t a t e s : " I t i s not yet p o s s i b l e t o d i s c e r n a c l e a r t r e n d i n the use of l a r g e v e s s e l s g e n e r a l l y i n t h i s t r a d e . Most of the v e s s e l s above 25,000 dwt were used i n the trade from the Caribbean to the United States of America and i n the trade from A u s t r a l i a t o Europe." 2. Commodity Production and Movement Through West  Coast P o r t s An examination of world trade p a t t e r n s i n bulk mater-i a l s s i n g l e d out f i v e commodities f o r f u r t h e r study. I t now remains f o r us t o examine these commodities i n r e l a t i o n to Western Canada and to determine i f there are any a d d i t i o n a l commodities which are s i g n i f i c a n t i n the context of the Canadian West Coast. V i r t u a l l y any commodity can and w i l l e v e n t u a l l y be c a r r i e d i n f u l l s h i p l o a d s i f such t r a n s p o r t i s cheaper than as general cargo and i f the q u a n t i t i e s a v a i l a b l e and the demand on a given route are s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e . OECD, f o r t h e i r study, assumed t h a t h y p o t h e t i c a l q u a n t i t i e s of 300,000 or 500,000 tons per annum, the l a t t e r f o r i r o n and s t e e l and f e r t i l i z e r , on s i n g l e i n t e r - r e g i o n a l routes could be the base above which bulk t r a n s p o r t of c e r t a i n commodities 7 would seem p o s s i b l e . For our purpose 200,000 has a r b i t r a r i l y 7 OECD, Maritime Transport 1968, p. 67. 65 been taken f o r a s i n g l e p o r t , the idea being t h a t t r a n s -shipment through a la r g e t e r m i n a l (the CTS system r e f e r r e d to e a r l i e r ) i s p o s s i b l e and the t o t a l West Coast exports exceeded the OECD base. An examination of 1967 p o r t s t a t i s t i c s was made t o determine those products which pass through West Coast ports i n q u a n t i t i e s i n excess of 200,000 tons. The cargo and tonnage by port i s contained i n Appendix IV along w i t h a l i s t i n g of c o u n t r i e s i mporting over 200,000 tons from Vancouver. The l i s t shows four import products exceeding our base of 200,000 tons. They are: alumina, sand and g r a v e l , f u e l o i l , and s a l t . Phosphate i s i n c l u d e d , although below 200,000 tons, as i t i s one of the major commodities i n world trade and because imports s i n c e 19 68 v a s t l y exceeded the base. I t i s r e a d i l y apparent from an examin-a t i o n of the l i s t t h a t exports of bulk m a t e r i a l s a re, by f a r , of more importance than imports and t h a t bulk exports c o n s t i t u t e the g r e a t e s t percentage of t o t a l tonnage. Many of the commodities l i s t e d can be r e a d i l y e l i m i n a t e d from f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . Among the i m p o r t s — f u e l o i l i s dropped as we are not c o n s i d e r i n g l i q u i d b u l k , and sand and g r a v e l can be e l i m i n a t e d as they c o n s t i t u t e a barged cargo w i t h a s h o r t haul from the United S t a t e s . E x p o r t s — w e have p r e v i o u s l y e l i m i n a t e d l o g s , lumber and timber, pulpwood, pulp and newsprint paper as not being a 66 "bulk" commodity according t o our d e f i n i t i o n . Although limestone moves i n l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s i t i s u n l i k e l y to move by super bulk c a r r i e r because i t s haul i s s h o r t , ( i t i s used f o r lime production and cement manufacture i n S e a t t l e ) and because i t i s a high-bulk low-cost commodity. The commodities which remain f o r more d e t a i l e d study are then: (a) i r o n ore, (b) wheat, (c) b a r l e y , (d) rape-seed, (e) copper ore and concentrate, (f) c o a l , (g) sulphur, (h) f e r t i l i z e r s . The p o r t s which handled these commodities i n 1967 are: Jedway— (a); P r i n c e R u p e r t — (b); T a s u — (a); Texada I s l a n d — (a); Vancouver— (b), ( c ) , (d), ( e ) , ( f ) , ( g ) , (h). Appendix V i n c l u d e s a t a b l e taken from a r e p o r t pre-pared f o r the Mining A s s o c i a t i o n of B r i t i s h Columbia. The t a b l e shows tonnages of B r i t i s h Columbia produced minerals shipped by commodity and by por t f o r the p e r i o d 1966-1969, c o a l shipments f o r the year 1969 only are i n c l u d e d . M i n e r a l production i n B r i t i s h Columbia i n 1968 and 1969 i s shown i n a separate t a b l e i n Appendix V. I t i s a l s o of i n t e r e s t t o determine those cargoes which exceed 200,000 tons and the c o u n t r i e s which import commodities i n t h i s magnitude. Appendix IV then l i s t s those c o u n t r i e s i mporting over 200,000 tons of a commodity through the p o r t of Vancouver i n 1 9 6 7 . Using Appendix IV we are able t o i d e n t i f y t r a d e s i n which i t would be p o s s i b l e t o u t i l i z e super bulk c a r r i e r s . Appendix IV a l s o shows the r e l a t i v e importance o f Vancouver as a b u l k p o r t even when compared w i t h p a r t s t h a t handled almost a l l bulk cargo. The p o r t s of the Lower Mainland of B r i t i s h Columbia handled 13.9 m i l l i o n tons o f deep sea ( i . e . , e x c l u d i n g c o a s t a l cargo) cargo i n 1966. Of t h i s 3.67 m i l l i o n was g e n e r a l cargo w h i l e b u l k c o n s t i t u t e d 9.36 and 0.91 m i l l i o n tons export and import r e s p e c t i v e l y . T a b l e 12 g i v e s the f i g u r e s f o r 1966 and the B r i t i s h Columbia Research C o u n c i l f o r e c a s t s f o r 1975 and 1985. By t o t a l l i n g the b u l k commodities i n T a b l e 13 and then comparing the two t a b l e s i t i s apparent t h a t i n 1966 Vancouver handled approx-i m a t e l y 80 per cent of the export tonnage and t h a t b u l k commodities ( i . e . , e x c l u d i n g lumber and timber) accounted f o r over 80 per cent o f t h i s export cargo. With the i n c r e a s e i n c o a l e x p o r t s i n 1970 to 4,334,162 tons b u l k shipments have g grown t o 87 per cent of e x p o r t s through Vancouver. C a l c u l a t e d from d a t a i n News from the P o r t of  Vancouver, V o l . 1, No. 5, March 1971. 68 TABLE 12 SUMMARY OF DEEPSEA TRADE, B. C. LOWER MAINLAND 1966-1985 m i l l i o n s of s h i p p i n g t o n s a Category 1966 1975 1985 (NHB & (BCRC (BCRC FRHC data) es t . ) e s t . ) Bulk Cargo out: g r a i n 6.18 9. 5 13.0 potash 1.13 6. 0 10.0 sul p h u r 0.61 2. 5 3.5 c o a l 1.10 6. 0 10.0 oth e r 0.34 1. 1 2.0 t o t a l b u l k out 9.36 25.1 38. 5 i n : s a l t 0.18 0. 6 1.0 phosphate & ore 0.29 0. 6 1.0 oth e r 0.44 0. 6 0.8 t o t a l bulk i n 0.91 1.8 2. 8 T o t a l Bulk Cargo 10.27 26. 9 41. 3 Gener a l Cargo out: lumber 1.55 2. 7 3.1 pu l p & paper 0.13 1. 0 1.5 ot h e r 0.86 1. 2 1.7 t o t a l g e n e r a l out 2.54 4.9 6. 3 t o t a l g e n e r a l i n 1.13 1.8 2. 9 T o t a l G e n e r a l Cargo 3.67 6. 7 9. 2 T o t a l Deepsea Cargo 13.94 33. 6 50. 5 T o t a l C o a s t a l Cargo 13.18 20. 5 32. 0 T o t a l , Lower M a i n l a i d 27.12 54. 1 82. 5 Source: B r i t i s h Columbia Research C o u n c i l , F o r e i g n Trade Study-Lower Mainland P o r t s o f B r i t i s h Columbia, (Vancouver: B.C. Research C o u n c i l , December, 1967). a I n P r a c t i c e s h o r t tons dominate except f o r inbound g e n e r a l cargo, where the e q u i v a l e n t ; one ton = 40 cu. f t . i s used. 69 TABLE 13 PORT OF VANCOUVER, PRINCIPAL EXPORTS, FOR SELECTED YEARS (RANK BY 1966 TONNAGE) ton s P r o d u c t Group 1966 1969 1. Wheat 4 ,688,212 3 ,530,458 2. Lumber and t i m b e r 1 ,270,980a 949,833a 3. P o t a s h 1 ,128,159 1 ,684,265 4. C o a l 1 ,098,285 1 ,234,000 5. S u l p h u r 613,584 1 ,344,039 6. B a r l e y 374,695 488,184 7. Rapeseed 317,832 312,335 8. F l a x s e e d 179,891 195,335 9. Copper o r e & c o n c e n t r a t e s 150,850 200,045 10. Logs 141,966a 78,844a 11. Fodder & f e e d 127,464 135,708 12. Oats 125,580 4,006 13. Rye 120,682 40,196 14. Woodpulp 107,726 529,059 15. Wheat f l o u r 104,880 13,282 16. F e r t i l i z e r 91,147 177,543 17. Waste & s c r a p ( m o s t l y hogged f u e l ) 82,212 a 8,723 a 18. Pulpwood and c h i p s 68,230a 32,739 a 19. P e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s 59,722a 339,998 a 20. A s b e s t o s 57,547 105,820 21. M i l l e d c e r e a l 27,625 47,825 22. Veneer and plywood 25,614 37,145 23. F i s h & f i s h p r o d u c t s 22,373 22,018 24. N e w s p r i n t & paper 21,724 105,556 25. T a l l o w 21,327 25,707 26. N o n f e r r . m e t a l & p r o d . (Al,Cu,Ni,Zn) 19,114 26,035 27. M u s t a r d s e e d 17,121 16,471 28. M e t a l o r e s & c o n c e n t , (exc. copper) 14,621 28,934 T o t a l , 28 i t e m s 11 ,079,163 11 ,366,103 T o t a l p o r t e x p o r t s 11 ,154,975 11 ,783,135 S o u r c e : N.H.B. A n n u a l T r a f f i c R e p o r t s . Note: These 28 i t e m s (no o t h e r s o v e r 10,000 t o n s ) c o m p r i s e more t h a n 99% o f t o t a l e x p o r t tonnage i n 1966. i n c l u d e s some f o r e i g n c o a s t a l s h i p m e n t s . 70 (a) Iron Ore Canada i s a major s u p p l i e r o f i r o n ore to the U n i t e d S t a t e s and to Great B r i t a i n . B r i t i s h Columbia produces fo u r per cent of Canadian p r o d u c t i o n which i n 1968 amounted t o 49.373 m i l l i o n t o n s . A l l the i r o n ore produced i n B r i t i s h Columbia w i t h the e x c e p t i o n o f t h a t produced a t Kimberley goes to Japan. E x p o r t s have been d e c r e a s i n g s i n c e the mid-1960' s w i t h the c l o s i n g of the mines at Jedway and Z e b a l l o s . The remaining producers a l s o produce a copper c o n c e n t r a t e from t h e i r o r e s . The l o c a t i o n o f mines i s shown on F i g u r e 6. (b) Coal The Canadian c o a l i n d u s t r y has r e c e n t l y been marked by an expansion i n the west and a c o n t r a c t i o n i n the e a s t . S i n c e one of our purposes i s t o determine i f t h e r e i s a need f o r i n c r e a s e d t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s on the West Coast we s h a l l r e s t r i c t our study to the two western most p r o v i n c e s . Appendix V p r o v i d e s e s t i m a t e s of the c o a l r e s o u r c e s of Western Canada by p r o v i n c e and c l a s s i f i c a t i o n and i n f o r m a t i o n on supply c o n t r a c t s signed w i t h Japan. Saskatchewan c o a l i s l i g n i t i c and not s u i t a b l e as a c o k i n g c o a l so w i l l not be c o n s i d e r e d f u r t h e r . S i x producers have c o n t r a c t e d t o supply the Japanese s t e e l i n d u s t r y w i t h 180 m i l l i o n l o n g tons of c o a l by 1990 from mines i n A l b e r t a and B r i t i s h Columbia. T h i s e s timate o b t a i n e d from numerous newspaper c l i p p i n g s i s i n agreement w i t h e s t i m a t e s prepared by the P r o v i n c e of B r i t i s h Columbia. These i n d i c a t e t h a t , i n 1972,between 10-15 m i l l i o n l o n g tons w i l l be g oing t o Japan from B r i t i s h Columbia and A l b e r t a . I t i s expected t h a t r i s i n g demand f o r m e t a l l u r g i c a l c o a l i n Europe w i l l r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e i n t h i s market which i s more a c c e s s i b l e and y i e l d s h i g h e r p r o f i t s t o the American companies. T h i s should r e s u l t i n a s h i f t i n American s a l e s and add t o the market p o t e n t i a l f o r Canadian 9 c o a l i n Japan. T a b l e 14 shows 1968-1969 c o a l p r o d u c t i o n i n s h o r t tons i n A l b e r t a and B r i t i s h Columbia and the q u a n t i t i e s exported to the U n i t e d S t a t e s and Japan i n 1969. TABLE 14 BITUMINOUS COAL PRODUCTION ALBERTA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA 1968-1969 s h o r t tons P r o d u c t i o n 1969 E x p o r t s 1968 1969 to USA t o Japan A l b e r t a 950,564 1,231,108 10,651 891,769 B r i t i s h Columbia 889,564 902,432 34,080 326,184 Source: Department of Energy Mines and Resources , C o a l Mines i n Canada, January 1970, p. 7. Supplementary Report on the Canadian Coking C o a l I n d u s t r y , D.W. B e t t s Wisener and P a r t n e r s , Toronto, January 1971, p. 1, (mimeographed). 19 72 73 (c) Grain Canadian g r a i n i s exported through a number of P a c i f i c p o r t s . These p o r t s i n t o t a l accounted f o r 45 per cent of a l l Canadian overseas e x p o r t s . G r a i n shipments from Vancouver e l e v a t o r s commonly account f o r 85 to 90 per c e n t of P a c i f i c g r a i n shipments. In 1968 t h i s t o t a l f o r the West Coast was 198,541,000 b u s h e l s . The ot h e r g r a i n p o r t s are P r i n c e Rupert, V i c t o r i a and New Westminster. Over 60 per ce n t o f the g r a i n shipped i s f o r P a c i f i c r i m c o u n t r i e s so t h a t s h i p s c o u l d c a r r y the g r e a t e r p a r t of t h i s cargo without b e i n g r e s t r i c t e d by the Panama C a n a l . The B r i t i s h Columbia Research C o u n c i l has f o r e c a s t t h a t 9.4 m i l l i o n (325 m i l l i o n bushels) and 13 m i l l i o n tons of g r a i n w i l l pass through the p o r t of Vancouver i n 1975 and 1985 r e s p e c t i v e l y (see T a b l e 12). They do not a t t r i b u t e t h i s i n c r e a s e as much t o an i n c r e a s e i n Canadian p r o d u c t i o n as t o an e x t e n s i o n of the g r a i n h i n t e r l a n d o f Vancouver t o about 85 per cent of P r a i r i e p r o d u c t i o n . In a d d i t i o n they m a i n t a i n t h a t the evidence suggests t h a t the Far E a s t w i l l i n c r e a s e i n importance as a consumer. In the same r e p o r t , the C o u n c i l expressed the o p i n i o n t h a t n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g the new Saskatchewan Wheat P o o l e l e v a t o r t h a t West Coast p o r t s would be s o r e l y taxed by even t h e i r 1975 f o r e c a s t . ^ B r i t i s h Columbia Research C o u n c i l , Vancouver Harbour, T r a f f i c Trends and F a c i l i t y A n a l y s i s , (Vancouver: B r i t i s h " Columbia Research C o u n c i l , 1967), p. 11. 74 (d) Phosphates No phosphates are produced i n Canada. Large q u a n t i t i e s are imported from F l o r i d a i n t o Canada v i a the p o r t of Vancouver d e s t i n e d f o r a f e r t i l i z e r p l a n t near Edmonton; the rock moves i n l a n d under an arrangement using potash c a r s . Imports i n 1968, and 1969 were 381,578, and 477,470 r e s p e c t i v e l y , i n 1970 imports t o t a l e d 366,169 tons r e s p e c t i v e l y . (e) Bauxite and A turning No b a u x i t e i s mined i n Canada. The only alumina p l a n t i n Canada i s l o c a t e d at A r v i d a , Quebec. Alc a n imports alumina from Jamaica t o t h e i r K i t i m a t smelter which has a r a t e d c a p a c i t y of 300,000 tons a year. This means t h a t there i s a p o t e n t i a l import tonnage of 150,0 00 tons of alumina, assuming f u l l p r o d u c t i o n . The e l e c t r i c power p o t e n t i a l i s a v a i l a b l e f o r i n c r e a s e d s m e l t i n g c a p a c i t y . The t r e n d , however, i n the past few years i s to b u i l d the smelters i n the c o u n t r i e s r e q u i r i n g the aluminum metal. (f) Potash The potash b e l t sweeps i n a broad arc through south-east Saskatchewan i n t o Manitoba. Canada i s b e l i e v e d to have the l a r g e s t reserves on e a r t h and at the 1968 l e v e l of consumption could supply the world's needs f o r 1,000 years. Saskatchewan's p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y i n 19 68 amounted t o 3.6 75 m i l l i o n tons ( a c t u a l production from four mines e q u a l l e d 2.971) and has now reached 18.3 m i l l i o n tons w i t h s i x new mines i n pro d u c t i o n . The 1971 s a l e s c u r r e n t l y are estimated to reach 3.7 m i l l i o n tons. Canada exported 90 per cent of her 1968 output w i t h 68 per cent going t o the Uni t e d S t a t e s , Japan and Great B r i t a i n . The B r i t i s h Columbia Research C o u n c i l i n t h e i r f o r e c a s t s estimate t h a t 60 per cent of production w i l l be o f f - s h o r e e x p o r t s . They p r o j e c t e d 1975 pro d u c t i o n a t 15 m i l l i o n tons r i s i n g to 20 m i l l i o n by the e a r l y 1 980's. 1 1 Three t e r m i n a l s i n Vancouver have a t o t a l storage of 350,000 tons and handled 1.66 m i l l i o n tons i n 12 1968. * The f o l l o w i n g paragraphs although outdated by the in f o r m a t i o n given above are of i n t e r e s t . They are taken from the Cawley r e p o r t , a study c a r r i e d out by a Saskatchewan l e g i s l a t i v e committee: In terms of pro d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y i t i s estimated t h a t by 1969 Saskatchewan w i l l lead the world w i t h an annual c a p a c i t y of 5.4 m i l l i o n tons of K2O as compared to the USSR i n second place w i t h 4.4 m i l l i o n tons. Saskatchewan's productive c a p a c i t y w i l l reach a peak of 8 m i l l i o n tons per year by 1976 w i t h no f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e p r o j e c t e d through t o 1978. L i k e w i s e world p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y w i l l i n c r e a s e to a maximum of 28.9 m i l l i o n tons per year i n 1978. The world annual consumption of potash w i l l i n c r e a s e from about 16 m i l l i o n tons i n 1968 to an estimated 31.8 m i l l i o n tons i n 1978. This represents an average growth r a t e of 7 per cent per year. I b i d . , p. 8. I b i d . Comparison of p r o j e c t e d p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y and consumption r e v e a l s t h a t the potash s u r p l u s problem w i l l be most s e r i o u s i n 1970 and 1971 when p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y w i l l exceed demands by 33 per c e n t . The s u r p l u s o f supply over demand w i l l g r a d u a l l y decrease u n t i l sometime i n 1977 when the two w i l l become e q u a l . A f t e r t h a t time t h e r e should be a world-wide shortage of potash w i t h demand o v e r t a k i n g the f o r e c a s t supply. 13 The committee found t h a t although Saskatchewan's i n d u s t r y enjoys s e v e r a l advantages over i t s c o m p e t i t i o n , i t has one s e r i o u s h a n d i c a p — t h e c o s t l y h a u l of the product t o market. The Monetary Times have s t a t e d t h a t $7.50 i s the accepted e s t i m a t e o f the bare c o s t ( i . e . , not t a k i n g account of a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , s a l e s and p l a n t a m o r t i z a t i o n ) o f pro-d u c i n g one t o n of muriate of potash, and $9 a ton t o move the prod u c t t o Vancouver f o r shipment t o d e s t i n a t i o n s l i k e A u s t r a l i a and New Zealand. The c o s t o f ocean t r a n s p o r t i s 14 gi v e n as $29 a t o n . The Cawley r e p o r t i d e n t i f i e s p o s s i b l e means of r e -d u c i n g the i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t : (a) u n i t t r a i n s , (b) f i n d i n g back h a u l cargoes, (c) p r o v i d i n g s t o r a g e a t consumptive p o i n t s t o permit a s t e a d i e r flow from mine t o market, and (d) shipment by p i p e l i n e s ; the f i r s t two have been put i n t o p r a c t i c e . "Potash G a l o r e , But Who Can Buy?" Monetary Times, 1968, V o l . 136, No. 11, p. 26. I b i d . 77 Table 15 shows a c t u a l and estimated potash consumption f o r 1968 and 1978 r e s p e c t i v e l y : TABLE 15 WORLD POTASH CONSUMPTION, 1968 ACTUAL 1978 ESTIMATED '000 tons K 2 0 1968 1978 P r o j e c t e d Growth Rate United States 4,410 9,080 7.5% Canada 210 430 7.5% L a t i n America 405 1,035 10 Europe 6,665 10,225 5 USSR 2,300 5,965 10 A f r i c a 240 615 10 Near East 25 55 10 Japan 725 965 3 I n d i a 175 1,075 20 P a k i s t a n 20 160 25 Korea, Taiwan, P h i l i p p i n e s 245 585 10 China 250 .715 10 A u s t r a l i a 90 350 15 New Zealand 115 290 10 M i s c e l l a n e o u s 100 240 T o t a l 15,975 31,785 10 Source: Monetary Times, V o l . 136, November, 1968. (g) Sulphur Canada was the world's l a r g e s t producer i n 1967. Almost two m i l l i o n tons out of a t o t a l Canadian p r o d u c t i o n of 2,991,000 tons was obtained from n a t u r a l gas, so i t i s r e a d i l y apparent t h a t i t i s a "western" product. The e s t i -mated Canadian production i n 19 68 was 3.31 m i l l i o n tons w i t h 78 B r i t i s h Columbia (321,000 tons) and A l b e r t a together pro-ducing 80 per cent. Over 1,675,0 00 tons of sulphur was shipped through B r i t i s h Columbia p o r t s i n 1968. According t o the Vancouver Province the l a r g e s t s i n g l e load was 49,000 tons and l e f t Vancouver i n August 1970 f o r Rotterdam. F o r e i g n Trade Study f i g u r e s p r e d i c t e d t h a t one h a l f of 1970 p r o d u c t i o n , or two m i l l i o n tons, would be exported through Vancouver. 1^ The a c t u a l f i g u r e was 1,747,864 tons; the Research C o u n c i l f o r e c a s t s 1975 tonnage w i l l be i n the order of three m i l l i o n tons. 3. Reguirements R e s u l t i n g From the Bulk Trade i I t can be concluded t h a t i r o n ore, wheat, c o a l , sulphur and f e r t i l i z e r s i n c l u d i n g potash move i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s from the Canadian West Coast t o j u s t i f y the employment of super bulk c a r r i e r s . I t i s a l s o c l e a r t h a t i f wheat i s not c o n s i d e r e d — only A u s t r a l i a ( s u l p h u r ) , the Netherlands (potash), and Japan (coal and f e r t i l i z e r s ) import over 200,000 tons of a s i n g l e product. B r i t i s h Columbia Research C o u n c i l , F o r e i g n Trade  Study Lower Mainland P o r t s of B r i t i s h Columbia^ (Vancouver: B r i t i s h Columbia Research C o u n c i l , 1~9~67) , p~. 8~. 79 The s i z e o f s h i p s t r a d i n g t o t h e N e t h e r l a n d s i s c o n t r o l l e d by t h e s i z e r e s t r i c t i o n s o f t h e Panama C a n a l . I n a d d i t i o n shipments o f s u l p h u r and f e r t i l i z e r by s u p e r b u l k c a r r i e r on a c o n s i s t e n t b a s i s a r e u n l i k e l y w i t h o u t shipment 16 t o a C e n t r a l T e r m i n a l S t a t i o n o r CTS. The o n l y commodity r e m a i n i n g i s - c o a l - a n d a l l t h e c o a l i s d e s t i n e d t o J a p a n . Japan i m p o r t s c o a l from t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , Canada and A u s t r a l i a — i t f o l l o w s t h a t t h e s i z e o f s h i p used i n t h e t r a d e w i l l be d e t e r m i n e d by t h e r e s p o n s e o f p o r t s i n t h e s e t h r e e c o u n t r i e s and Japan t o t h e d e s i r e o f t h e s t e e l companies t o employ l a r g e r s h i p s . B. THE SUPPLY OF SHIPPING SERVICES The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e b u l k c a r r i e r f l e e t i s examined t o d e t e r m i n e : (a) f u t u r e t r e n d s i n s h i p s i z e , (b) i f t y p e and s i z e o f s h i p have a r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h commodity o r t h e t r a d e r o u t e , and (c) t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r m a r i n e t e r m i n a l s . A l t h o u g h goods were c a r r i e d i n b u l k p r i o r t o t h e mid 1950's, i t has o n l y been s i n c e 1955 t h a t we have seen t h e emergence o f t h e b u l k c a r r i e r f l e e t t o i t s p r e s e n t p o s i t i o n o f predominance. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t e i g h t y - f o u r I a n S. Ross, "Trends i n B u l k Ocean T r a n s p o r t , " M i n i n g Congress J o u r n a l , December 1969, p. 70. 80 per cent o f the bulk c a r r i e r tonnage as of January 1970 was b u i l t d u r i n g the s i x t i e s . P r i o r t o t h i s the moderate s i z e tramp o f 9,000 to 9,500 dwt w i t h an average speed o f 12 knots was favoured. These tramps were b u i l t d u r i n g the Second World War and were of the " L i b e r t y " o r "Empire" c l a s s . 1. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the Bulk C a r r i e r F l e e t By the end of the f i f t i e s the f l e e t o f dry bulk 17 c a r r i e r s t o t a l l e d 6.6 m i l l i o n deadweight tons o f which 41 per cent were o r e - c a r r i e r s , 20 per cent o r e / o i l and 39 per c e n t o t h e r bulk c a r r i e r s . As of January 1970 ore c a r r i e r s c o n s t i t u t e d o n l y 12.5 per cent, combined c a r r i e r s had f a l l e n s l i g h t l y t o 18.5 per cent and o t h e r b u l k c a r r i e r s made up 69 per cent o f a f l e e t t h a t had surpassed 66 m i l l i o n t o n s . (a) Types of Bulk Carriers F e a r n l e y & Egers d i v i d e the bulk c a r r i e r f l e e t i n t o t h r e e major d i v i s i o n s or types and t h i s nomenclature w i l l be f o l l o w e d i n t h i s work. The t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s a r e : Dry b u l k c a r r i e r and bulk c a r r i e r are used synon-ymously i n t h i s s e c t i o n . 81 ( i ) Combined-Carriers: Bulk v e s s e l s able t o c a r r y o i l ; such as o r e / o i l c a r r i e r s and b u l k / o i l or "obo" c a r r i e r s . 1 ^ ( i i ) Ore Carriers: Pure ore c a r r i e r s ( i . e . ships designed t o c a r r y o r e ) , b a u x i t e c a r r i e r s , and tankers converted i n t o such types. ( i i i ) Other Bulk Carriers: Pure bulk c a r r i e r s and s p e c i a l i z e d bulk c a r r i e r s other than s p e c i f i e d 19 under 1 and 2. Tables 16 and 17 i l l u s t r a t e the remarkable i n c r e a s e i n both number and s i z e of the e x i s t i n g f l e e t and of v e s s e l s on order f o r each of these types. ( i ) The average s i z e of a l l combined c a r r i e r s was 63,000 dwt at the end of 1969. The l a r g e s t s h i p s of t h i s type now on order are of 270,000 dwt. Fearnley & Egers have surveyed 20 the development of cargo movements by combined c a r r i e r s between 1966 and 1968, t h e i r r e s u l t s are summarized i n Although ores are considered t o be bulk commodities, the design of ships used t o c a r r y ore i s s p e c i a l i z e d . T h i s i s because of the d e n s i t y , f o r example ore would have a s t o r -age f a c t o r of 15-25 w h i l e other bulk commodities would range between 30 to 55 c u b i c f e e t per ton. 19 Fearnley & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Co. L t d . , World Bulk  C a r r i e r s 1970, p. 4. 20 The d e f i n i t i o n of combined c a r r i e r used i n t h i s one t a b l e i s 18,000 dwt, the d e f i n i t i o n used elsewhere i n the study i s 10,000 dwt. 82 Table 18. The t a b l e i l l u s t r a t e s the r a p i d development of combined c a r r i e r s ; i n a d d i t i o n the switch-over from dry cargo (mainly i r o n ore) t r a n s p o r t t o the o i l t r a d e , f o l l o w -i n g c l o s u r e of the Suez Canal can be seen. The o r e / o i l c a r r i e r has the advantage of g r e a t e r 21 v e r s a t i l i t y as compared w i t h pure o i l c a r r i e r s . G e n e r a l l y speaking i t c a r r i e s the ore and o i l i n separate holds and tanks and does not c a r r y both products at the same time. TABLE 16 AVERAGE SIZE OF CARRIER TYPES -• 1968-1970 •000 dwt E x i s t i n g F l e e t As Of V e s s e l s on Order As At 1,1,68 1,1,69 1/1/70 1,1,68 1,1,69 1/1 ,70 Ore C a r r i e r s 28.3 28.5 30.3 46.9 70.4 79 .6 Combined C a r r i e r s 50.3 58.3 62.6 82.5 107.9 131 .3 Other Bulk C a r r i e r s 25.3 26.6 27.2 31.8 32.7 36 .4 A l l Bulk C a r r i e r s 28.1 29.7 30.8 38.7 44.7 59 .1 Tankers 34.4 38. 3 41.8 136.4 152.8 146 .9 Source: Fearnley & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Co. L t d . (bulk c a r r i e r s ) J . I . Jacobs and Co. L t d . ( t a n k e r s ) . J . Bes, Bulk C a r r i e r s , P r a c t i c a l Guide t o the  Subject f o r a l l Concerned w i t h the Shipping Business, ^London: W.S. Heinman, I"9~65) , p~ Tl. TABLE 17 VESSELS ON ORDER 1961-1970 Ore Combined Other Bulk T o t a l C a r r i e r s C a r r i e r s C a r r i e r s No. *000 No. '000 No. '000 No. '000 dwt dwt dwt dwt 1.1.1961 38 838 5 218 190 3924 233 4980 1.1.1962 35 958 11 662 227 5398 273 7018 1.1.1963 23 701 19 1185 152 3803 194 5694 1.1.1964 11 460 22 1221 148 4176 181 5857 1.1.1965 16 825 21 1199 246 7386 283 9410 1.1.1966 26 1371 48 3445 351 12144 425 16960 1.1.1967 21 863 57 4237 421 14719 499 19819 1.1.1968 12 563 54 4453 360 11451 426 16467 1.1.1969 10 704 64 : 6907 358 11709 432 19320 1.1.1970 9 716 111 14575 361 13136 481 28427 Source: F e a r n l e y & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Co. L t d . , World Bulk C a r r i e r s , (Oslo: January, 1970). 84 TABLE 18 CARGO MOVEMENTS BY COMBINED CARRIERS 19 66' -1968 1966 1967 1968 M i l l i o n M e t r i c Tons M i l l i o n M e t r i c Tons M i l l i o n M e t r i c Tons »000 M i l l i o n T o n - M i l e s O i l 10.8 28.7 54.3 263 I r o n Ore 24.4 17.5 8.8 58 C o a l 0.9 1.6 3.1 G r a i n 0.3 0.2 0.2 > 34 O t h e r s 1.5 0.6 0.6 T o t a l 37.9 48.6 67.0 355 S o u r c e : OECD, M a r i t i m e T r a n s p o r t 1969, p. 43. The number o f t h e s e s h i p s i s c o m p a r a t i v e l y s m a l l when compared w i t h t h e number o f t a n k e r s i n o p e r a t i o n . S i n c e 1960 o r e / o i l c a r r i e r s have r o u g h l y p a r a l l e d t h e growth o f t h e t o t a l o r e f l e e t ( i n c l u d i n g i n t h i s i n s t a n c e o r e / o i l ) a c c o u n t i n g f o r 30 p e r c e n t o f t h e tonnage; d u r i n g 1966 and 1967 t h e d e v e l o p -ment was more r a p i d a c c o u n t i n g f o r about 40 per c e n t . B u l k / o i l c a r r i e r s can c a r r y f u l l d eadweight when l o a d e d w i t h p r a c t i c a l l y a l l d r y c a r g o e s i n b u l k and a l s o w i t h l i q u i d c a r g o such as c r u d e o i l . Bes s t a t e s t h a t such v e s s e l s can p r o b a b l y make more voyages w i t h f u l l l o a d s and fewer i n b a l l a s t t h u s a c h i e v i n g a g r e a t e r e a r n i n g power 85 22 than other bulk c a r r i e r s . The main advantage i s t h e i r 23 a b i l i t y to perform c e r t a i n t r i a n g u l a r trades which i n c l u d e s o i l and bulk c a r r i a g e . Table 19 shows t h a t the g r e a t e s t emphasis has been placed on the obo v e s s e l and summarizes the growth of the combined c a r r i e r f l e e t between 1966 and 1970. (See a l s o preceding Tables 16 and 17). TABLE 19 GROWTH OF COMBINED CARRIER FLEET 1966-1970 '000 dwt Jan. 1966 Jan. 1967 Jan. 1968 Jan. 1969 Jan. 1970 O r e / o i l 3,072 3,239 4,784 5,899 7,047 B u l k / o i l 289 1,092 2,912 4,295 5,151 T o t a l 3,361 4,331 7,696 10,194 12,198 Source: OECD, Maritime Transport 1969. ( i i ) The ore c a r r i e r s are s p e c i a l l y designed t o c a r r y ore w i t h maximum e f f i c i e n c y a t minimum c o s t , they are o f t e n designed f o r a p a r t i c u l a r trade and are b u i l t w i t h the s e c u r i t y of a long term c h a r t e r ; depending on the t r a d e , they may be designed w i t h shipboard ore ha n d l i n g equipment or r e l y on shore based unloading equipment. Bes has s t a t e d t h a t the ore c a r r i e r s are mainly c o n s t r u c t e d f o r s p e c i f i c trades on long term c o n t r a c t s , t h i s 2 2 I b i d . , p. 27. 23 T r i a n g u l a r trades means the s h i p r e g u l a r l y c a l l s at three p o r t s c a r r y i n g a payload on two and sometimes three leg s of the t r i a n g l e ; i n t h i s way the d i s t a n c e covered i n b a l l a s t i s reduced. 86 i s i n c o n t r a s t w i t h t h e a l l purpose b u l k c a r r i e r s ( i i i - b e l o w ) f o r w h i c h f l e x i b i l i t y o f employment i s an i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r -a t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , i n t h e ca s e o f th e o r e c a r r i e r , t h e maximum deadweight c a p a c i t y i s m a i n l y governed by t h e t r a d e i n w h i c h t h e s h i p w i l l be employed; i n o t h e r words t h e d r a f t , beam and l e n g t h a r e d e t e r m i n e d by t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s o f 24 t h e s o u r c e and r e c e i v i n g p o r t s . ( i i i ) T h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n — o t h e r b u l k c a r r i e r s — i n c l u d e s s p e c i a l i t i e s such as t h e b u l k c a r r i e r s w h i c h a r e f i t t e d w i t h r a c k s t o h a n d l e a u t o m o b i l e s . Many o f t h e new s h i p s o f t h i s t y p e a r e o f l e s s t h a n 30,000 t o n s , t h i s s m a l l e r t h a n average s i z e ( f o r b u l k c a r r i e r s ) b e i n g d i c t a t e d by t h e o t h e r use t o wh i c h t h e s h i p i s p u t . A l s o i n c l u d e d i n t h i s c a t e g o r y a r e t h e pure b u l k c a r r i e r s ; i n 1970 t h e l a r g e s t s h i p i n s e r v i c e was 160,000 dwt. (b) The Trend to Bigger Ships Development o f t h e b u l k f l e e t can b e s t be u n d e r s t o o d by r e f e r e n c e t o t h e s t a t i s t i c a l t a b l e s . T a b l e 20 shows t h e re m a r k a b l e growth o f t h e d r y b u l k c a r r i e r f l e e t i n t h e p a s t decade. The average a n n u a l growth i n f l e e t tonnage d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d was 2 6 per c e n t , t h e growth r e a c h e d a peak i n Be s s , op. c i t . , p. 38. 87 1967 (the year the Suez was cl o s e d ) and has s i n c e decreased t o 15 per cent i n 1969. T a b l e 16 a l l o w s the average deadweight of the t h r e e major groups and of the e x i s t i n g f l e e t t o be compared w i t h the averages f o r v e s s e l s on order f o r the same y e a r s ; i t can be seen t h a t the average o f the e x i s t i n g f l e e t i s low when compared w i t h the average f o r s h i p s coming i n t o s e r v i c e i n any r e c e n t y e a r . T a b l e 21 shows the s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the f l e e t as of January 1, 19 68 and 1970. For i n s t a n c e the average dead-weight c a p a c i t y f o r ore c a r r i e r s d e l i v e r e d i n 1964 was 25 47,700 tons w h i l e the average f o r the e x i s t i n g c l a s s was between 22 and 23 thousand dwt. By 1 9 6 7 , the average s i z e of the ore c a r r i e r segment was 32,600 tons w h i l e the average s i z e of ore c a r r i e r s d e l i v e r e d was 64,500 t o n s . In the same year, the average s i z e o f the remaining p a r t o f the f l e e t was 26,70 0 tons t h i s i s c o n t r a s t e d w i t h the average 2 6 d e l i v e r e d s i z e of 38,700 dwt. Combined c a r r i e r s con-s t i t u t e d more than o n e - t h i r d the d e l i v e r i e s expected i n 1970 and over h a l f the expected tonnage f o r 1 9 7 1 . I b i d . T r e v o r D. Heaver, The Economies of V e s s e l S i z e , (Vancouver: N a t i o n a l Harbours Board, 1 9 6 8 ) , p. 8. TABLE 20 DEVELOPMENT OF MAIN BULK CARRIER TYPES Combined C a r r i e r s Other Ore C a r r i e r s O r e / O i l B u l k / O i l Bulk C a r r i e r s T o t a l No. '000 No. '000 No. •000 No. • 000 No. 1 000 dwt dwt dwt dwt dwt 1.1.1960 131 2727 55 1317 - - 179 2563 365 6607 1.1.1961 168 3480 62 1514 1 28 240 3689 471 8711 1.1.1962 201 4131 66 1675 1 28 343 5731 611 11565 1.1.1963 218 4674 68 1824 1 28 469 8488 756 15014 1.1.1964 233 5227 74 2250 3 144 610 11893 920 19514 1.1.1965 229 5315 80 2662 3 144 688 13960 1000 22081 1.1.1966 238 5950 89 3072 6 289 835 18241 1168 27552 1.1.1967 260 7192 92 3239 17 1092 1011 23263 1380 34786 1.1.1968 269 7606 111 4784 42 2912 1229 31055 1651 46357 1.1.1969 269 7660 116 5899 59 4295 1492 39734 1936 57588 1.1.1970 273 8265 126 7047 69 5151 1691 45968 2159 66431 Source: F e a r n l e y & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Co. L t d . , World Bulk C a r r i e r s , (Oslo: January 1970) . CO CO TABLE 21 DISTRIBUTION OF EXISTING BULK CARRIER FLEET AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1969 S i z e Group '000 dwt Ore C a r r i e r s Combined C a r r i e r s i Other Bulk T o t a l s % of T o t a l Tonnage a Ciiiu. UJ. 1969 1967 1969 1967 1966 1965 10-18 89 14 502 605 521 28.0 16.3 20.5 23.2 18-25 64 19 470 553 460 25.5 21.3 26.3 30.7 25-30 25 7 227 259 155 12.0 9.0 9.4 9.9 30-40 32 10 207 249 220 11.5 16.3 18.5 17.1 40-50 8 14 134 156 91 7.3 8.8 6.8 6.0 50-60 33 22 92 147 105 6.8 12.3 10.3 9.2 60-80 17 57 52 126 78 5.9 11.8 7.1 3.3 80-100 2 37 4 43 21 2.0 4.2 1.1 0.6 100- 3 15 3 21 - 1.0 - - -T o t a l 273 195 1,691 2,159 1,651 100 100 100 100 Source: F e a r n l e y & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Co. L t d . , World Bulk C a r r i e r s (Oslo: January 1970). a cent = The deadweight i n each category ( i . e . , s i z e grouping)  p T o t a l deadweight o f bulk c a r r i e r f l e e t CO vo TABLE 22 NEWBUILDINGS DELIVERED 1960-1969 Ore C a r r i e r s No. '000 t.dw. Combined C a r r i e r s No. '000 t.dw Other No. Bulk C a r r i e r s '000 t.dw. No. ' T o t a l 000 t.dw. 1960 . . 25 739 6 178 47 848 88 1765 1961 . . 22 468 4 144 69 1463 95 2075 1962 . . 20 607 2 141 94 2068 116 2816 1963 . . 15 459 7 411 112 2819 134 3689 1964 . . 7 245 9 523 63 1645 79 2413 1965 . . 13 638 12 631 146 4282 171 5551 1966 . . 27 1266 15 978 152 4615 194 6859 1967 . . 14 621 41 3073 222 7545 277 11239 1968 . . 3 209 32 2720 246 7688 281 10617 1969 . . 13 759 23 2028 187 5240 223 8027 Source: F e a r n l e y & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Co. L t d . , World Bulk C a r r i e r s , (Oslo: January 1970). vo o 91 A much b e t t e r p i c t u r e o f the s i z e o f s h i p which con-s t i t u t e the "new" f l e e t i s had from examining Table 22. T a b l e 2 3 i n t u r n shows the tr e n d s i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f bulk c a r r i e r s which are p r e s e n t l y b e i n g d e l i v e r e d and o r d e r e d . TABLE 23 DISTRIBUTION OF BULK CARRIERS ON ORDER AS OF JANUARY 1968 AND 1970 S i z e Group 1000 dwt No.of Ore C a r r i e r s No.of Combined and Other Bulk C a r r i e r s T o t a l % o f T o t a l Tonnage i n S i z e Group 1 68 '70 1 68 •70 ' 68 •70 '70 • 68 '67 10-18 - - 50 17 50 17 1.0 4.6 3.8 18-25 8 1 110 107 118 108 8.0 15.6 13.1 25-30 - - 60 76 60 76 7.1 9.4 5.5 30-40 - - 57 69 57 69 7.9 12.4 15.4 40-50 - - 35 18 35 18 2.8 9.3 15.3 50-60 - 1 31 36 31 37 7.1 10.2 12.3 60-80 4 2 32 25 36 27 6.6 15.5 22.2 80-100 20* 3 19* 30 39* 33 10.7 23.0 12.4 100-150 2 50 52 22.2 150- - 44 44 26.6 T o t a l 32 9 394 472 426 481 100.0100.0 100.0 Source: F e a r n l e y & Egers C h a r t e r i n g Co. L t d . , World Bulk  C a r r i e r s , (Oslo: February 1968 and January 1970). *Note: May i n c l u d e v e s s e l s i n the two l a r g e r c a t e g o r i e s . The t r e n d toward l a r g e r v e s s e l s i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n the f o u r t a b l e s . Heaver p o i n t s out t h a t the minor decrease to 3 8 , 7 0 0 tons i n the average s i z e o f v e s s e l s on o r d e r as o f January 19 68 as compared w i t h the p r e v i o u s year was due t o the l a r g e number o f v e s s e l s l e s s than 2 5 , 0 0 0 tons then under 27 c o n s t r u c t i o n . In 1969 the average s i z e i n c r e a s e d t o 4 4 , 7 0 0 tons and a f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e t o 5 9 , 1 0 0 tons i n the average s i z e of v e s s e l s on order i s shown f o r January 1 9 7 0 . I t i s s i g n i f i c a n t t o note t h a t the l a r g e s t group of v e s s e l s i n terms of t o t a l tonnage were v e s s e l s o f over 8 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s . T h i s f a c t i s e a s i l y l o s t s i g h t o f , s i n c e no tonnage f i g u r e i s gi v e n i n T a b l e s 21 and 2 3 . I t should a l s o be noted t h a t t h e r e i s a marked c l u s t e r i n g about p a r t i c u l a r s i z e groupings (see T a b l e 4). Heaver a t t r i b u t e s t h i s as a r e f l e c t i o n of s h i p s i z e s b e i n g used f o r the movement of p a r t i c u l a r 2 8 commodities. (c) The Design Vessel and its Requirements I t has been demonstrated t h a t the average b u l k c a r r i e r has been i n c r e a s i n g i n s i z e year by year , i n a d d i t i o n f o r any g i v e n year the average s i z e o f new or d e r s i s h i g h e r than the average of d e l i v e r i e s , which i n t u r n i s h i g h e r than the 2 7 I b i d . 2 8 I b i d . average o f the f l e e t f o r t h a t p a r t i c u l a r year. In P a r t A of t h i s chapter the maximum s i z e o f c a r r i e r which are u t i l i z e d i n a t r a d e was giv e n f o r c e r t a i n commodities, i t was found t h a t w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of i r o n ore and c o a l , world movement of bulk commodities are i n s h i p s o f under 60,000 dwt. In t h i s s e c t i o n we s h a l l determine the maximum or d e s i g n s i z e o f v e s s e l t h a t one should c o n s i d e r i r r e s p e c -t i v e o f the commodities t o be shipped. We want t o accommo-date the l a r g e s t c a r r i e r t h a t i s expected t o be i n s e r v i c e on o t h e r than h i g h l y s p e c i f i c runs, over the term f o r which o r d e r s are b e i n g p l a c e d . T h i s s i z e i s not r e a d i l y apparent from a p e r u s a l o f the a v a i l a b l e d a t a so we must r e s o r t t o e x p e r t o p i n i o n . One p r a c t i c a l l i m i t t o s h i p s i z e i s the c a p a b i l i t y o f c o n s t r u c t i n g a v e s s e l ; a t the end o f 1969 t h e r e were s i x yards capable o f c o n s t r u c t i n g v e s s e l s o f 700,000 dwt. One wonders when t h i s w i l l be reached when the l a r g e s t tanker on o r d e r i s 376,000 tons and draws 80 f e e t . Tankers can unload and l o a d very r a p i d l y through p i p e l i n e s w h i l e b e i n g t i e d up many thousands of f e e t from shore. An example o f t h e i r u n l o a d i n g c a p a b i l i t y i s t h a t the super t a n k e r wharf a t P o i n t Tupper Nova S c o t i a can handle 326,000 dwt s h i p s u n l o a d i n g a t 100,0 00 b a r r e l s an hour. I t i s g e n e r a l l y acknowledged t h a t dry bulk s h i p s w i l l not reach the s i z e p r o p o r t i o n s o f l i q u i d bulk c a r r i e r s . The UN has s t a t e d t h a t i t i s the speed and the c o s t of u n l o a d i n g which l i m i t s 94 29 the s i z e of dry bulk c a r r i e r s . Work by D.G. Nijman i n 1966 t o determine the optimum s i z e of s h i p to serve the Hoogovens s t e e l complex took the c o s t s of p o r t f a c i l i t i e s , of s h i p p i n g and of i n v e n t o r y i n t o account and concluded t h a t 85,000 dwt was the optimum s i z e . The study f o r the P o r t Talbot harbour f o r the S t e e l Company of Wales concluded t h a t ships drawing 42 f e e t (at t h a t time thought to be the d r a f t of 75,000 tonners but i s i n f a c t s u i t a b l e f o r most 85,000 dwt ships) were o p t i m a l . The t e r m i n a l , which was completed i n January 1970 was a c t u a l l y designed f o r 100,000 dwt ships and can be deepened to accommodate 150,000 dwt i f r e q u i r e d . A number of press r e p o r t s i n d i c a t e t h a t both r e c e i v i n g and s h i p p i n g p o r t s c o n s i d e r i t p o s s i b l e t h a t 300,000 dwt dry bulk c a r r i e r s w i l l some day be i n s e r v i c e and must enter i n t o any p o r t p l a n n i n g . I.S. Ross has s t a t e d a " l i m i t t o the s i z e of dry bulk cargo ships around 200,000 t o 250,000 , II 3 0 tons d.w." The Japan-Canada Trade C o u n c i l i n October 1970 i s more c o n s e r v a t i v e at l e a s t f o r the s h o r t term, "The trend i s to ships i n excess of 100,000 deadweight ton c a p a c i t y t o c a r r y imported raw m a t e r i a l s such as c o a l , ore and o i l . " 29 United N a t i o n s , Conference on Trade and Development, Review of Maritime Transport, 1969, (TD/B/C.4/66), 1969, p~. 22. 30 Ian S. Ross, "Trends i n Bulk Ocean Transport," F a i r p l a y , No. 4520, 9 A p r i l 1970, p. 42. 95 The a r t i c l e goes on t o s t a t e t h a t Nippon S t e e l C o r p o r a t i o n w i l l a c q u i r e twelve s h i p s f o r o p e r a t i o n i n 1972, nine of which are dry b u l k c a r r i e r s and w i l l range from 130 t o 160 thousand tons; the o t h e r t h r e e are o i l c a r r i e r s r a n g i n g between 220,000 and 270,000 dwt. The 1969 study by Metra c o n s i d e r e d t h a t s h i p s o f 150,000 dwt was the maximum s i z e which would be employed i n "the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . " The 1967 address by the e x e c u t i v e v i c e - p r e s i d e n t o f Isihikawjima-Harima Heavy I n d u s t r i e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t the Japanese s t e e l i n d u s t r y were p l a n n i n g f o r s h i p s between 100 and 130,000 dwt. There i s of course no way t o average between the f a c t s o f f e r e d by an examination o f the s t a t i s t i c s and the o p i n i o n s expressed by e x p e r t s i n the f i e l d o f commodity t r a n s f e r . My own o p i n i o n i s t h a t the " d e s i g n " v e s s e l s h o u l d be assumed t o be 20 0,000 deadweight to n s . A range of dimensions f o r dry b u l k c a r r i e r s i s g i v e n i n the f o l l o w i n g T a b l e : 96 TABLE 24 RANGE OF DIMENSIONS FOR BULK CARRIERS f e e t Tonnage Length Beam D r a f t 15,000 480-510 61-67 27.5-30 20,000 535-560 70-76 30-32 30,000 610-640 82-88 33-36 40,000 665-695 91-97 36-38 50,000 710-740 98-104 38-40 60,000 710-775 104-110 39-44 70,000 740-805 104-121 41-44 80,000 765-830 105-130 42-50 100,000 820-850 134 45-49 144,000 940 142 54 205,000 a 1060 163 56-58 276,000 a 1134 175 72 Source: Adapted from Swan Wooster and F e a r n l e y & Eg e r s . a T h e s e are a c t u a l dimensions o f t a n k e r s . CHAPTER IV COMMODITY MOVEMENT IN RELATION TO WEST COAST TRANSPORTATION This chapter examines some harbours which meet the n a v i g a t i o n requirements of super dry bulk c a r r i e r s , d e s c r i b e s the i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n network of Western C a n a d a — p o i n t i n g out the p h y s i c a l l i m i t a t i o n s placed on the r a i l r o a d s and the p a t t e r n of trackage t h a t has evolved. I t then gives the l o c a t i o n of those commodities i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter I I as being amenable to bulk movement by super c a r r i e r . The t h i r d s e c t i o n provides i n f o r m a t i o n on the p o r t of Vancouver i n general and the e x i s t i n g dry bulk t e r m i n a l s i n p a r t i c u l a r . A. HARBOUR LOCATIONS The Coast Mountains form a b e l t averaging 200 miles wide and extending 1,000 mil e s from the 49th to the 60th p a r a l l e l . Numerous i n l e t s penetrate the mountainous coast f o r d i s t a n c e s of f i f t y t o seventy m i l e s . They are u s u a l l y a m i l e or two i n width and of con s i d e r a b l e depth, w i t h steep canyon l i k e s i d e s . The coast i s a l s o broken by r i v e r v a l l e y s such as those of the F r a s e r , Skeena and S t i k i n e (see F i g u r e 7). An examination of hyd r o g r a p h i c c h a r t s and t o p o g r a p h i c maps of the B r i t i s h Columbia c o a s t enables harbours meeting the requirements s e t out e a r l i e r f o r super b u l k c a r r i e r s t o be i d e n t i f i e d . Among the harbours s a t i s f y i n g the requirements a r e : Nass Bay, P r i n c e Rupert, K i t i m a t , Squamish, Vancouver, and Roberts B a n k — t h e s e l o c a t i o n s are d i s c u s s e d b r i e f l y below. Maps of these l o c a t i o n s are g i v e n i n Appendix VI.. The Skeena i t s e l f i s very sh a l l o w and i s not n a v i g a b l e , a f a c i l i t y would have t o be l o c a t e d o f f one o f the i s l a n d s or on l a n d f i l l formed by r e c l a i m i n g the mud f l a t s between the i s l a n d s . There i s no o p p o r t u n i t y t o develop a s u i t a b l e area within, the pr e s e n t c o n f i n e s o f P r i n c e Rupert. The g r e a t advantage o f f e r e d by P r i n c e Rupert i s t h a t the r a i l w a y a l r e a d y e x i s t s and i s u n d e r - u t i l i z e d . A study by CBA E n g i n e e r i n g has shown t h a t a s i t e can be developed as a bulk t e r m i n a l a t R i d l e y Island.^" There i s no q u e s t i o n t h a t the ar e a can take super s h i p s and t h a t a wharf can be b u i l t c l o s e t o shore. Easy e n t r y , however, would r e q u i r e e i t h e r d r e d g i n g o f a number o f h i g h spots o r e x t e n s i v e use o f n a v i g a t i o n a i d s . A more f a v o u r a b l e entrance can be had t o P o r t l a n d I n l e t . T h i s l o c a t i o n i s much b e t t e r s h e l t e r e d and has e a s i e r access from the sea than has the mouth of the Skeena. "^CBA E n g i n e e r i n g , R i d l e y I s l a n d Bulk T e r m i n a l , ( P r i n c e Rupert, B.C.: C i t y o f P r i n c e Rupert, P o r t Develop-ment Commission, September, 1969). 100 The shore, however, i s c a n y o n - l i k e and i t i s necessary to e n t e r as f a r as the mouth of the Nass' R i v e r b e f o r e s u i t a b l e l a n d can be found. In Nass Bay the l a n d does not r i s e as q u i c k l y and t h e r e are e x t e n s i v e t i d a l f l a t s and b a r s . Douglas Channel a l s o a l l o w s good access from the sea f o r l a r g e s h i p s through Caamano Sound, the channel i s deep and s t r a i g h t as f a r as the mouth of the K i t i m a t R i v e r . The banks of the channel are steep but would not p r e s e n t too d i f f i c u l t a problem. A t K i t i m a t i t s e l f t h e r e are mud f l a t s (the bottom i s g r a v e l ) which c o u l d be developed. The Gardner C a n a l , p a r t way up the c h a n n e l , o f f e r s s u f f i c i e n t depth and width but has steep c l i f f s which make t h i s a much l e s s advantageous s i t e than K i t i m a t f o r a marine t e r m i n a l . Shallow depth i n Johnstone S t r a i t between Vancouver I s l a n d and the Mainland prevent use o f t h i s passage by l a r g e s h i p s thus d i s a l l o w i n g use of p a r t of the mainland and r e -s t r i c t i n g e n t r y to the S t r a i t o f G e o r g i a . The S t r a i t o f G e o r g i a i s open t o the south through the S t r a i t o f Juan de Fuca. T h i s S t r a i t i t s e l f p r e s e n t s no problem a l t h o u g h passage through Haro S t r a i t and Boundary Passage r e q u i r e s c a r e ; once i n s i d e , G e o r g i a S t r a i t i s deep,wide and s h e l t e r e d as f a r n o r t h as Quadra I s l a n d . Howe Sound i s wide and deep, i t s shores, however, r i s e s t e e p l y from the waters edge u n t i l the mouth of the Squamish R i v e r i s reached. At t h i s p o i n t the r i v e r has formed mud f l a t s which can be r e c l a i m e d by d r e d g i n g t o p r o v i d e up 101 to 120 acres of back up land. The F e d e r a l Department of P u b l i c Works i s dredging t o a depth of f o r t y - f i v e f e e t and r e c l a i m i n g land j u s t o u t s i d e the harbour f o r the PGE. In the design of the new f a c i l i t y , the fu t u r e use of t h i s s i t e f o r a super bulk c a r r i e r t e r m i n a l i s being taken i n t o 2 account. B. INLAND TRANSPORT AND RESOURCE LOCATIONS 1. R a i l Network (a) Western Canada In Canada the a x i s of the Rockies i s continuous f o r over 1,000 m i l e s , there are only four major passes through the Canadian Rockies. The southernmost the Crow's Nest and the K i c k i n g Horse are u t i l i z e d by CP R a i l , the northern or Yellowhead by the Canadian N a t i o n a l Railways (CNR). The f o u r t h , V e r m i l l i o n i s p r e s e n t l y u t i l i z e d by B.C. highway 93. Use of the southern passes presents a second b a r r i e r i n the form of the S e l k i r k Mountains and need t o u t i l i z e Rogers Pass. Once through the Rocky Mountains the P a c i f i c Ocean i s blocked by the Coast range; the e a s i e s t route t o the sea i n the e a r l y days was the r i v e r system. When the r a i l w a y Swan Wooster Engineering Co. L t d . , Squamish D e l t a — P o r t and Land Use Study, (Vancouver: Swan Wooster Engineering Co. Lt"dT, June~T9~70) , p. 16. 102 reached t o the P a c i f i c they too sought the r i v e r v a l l e y s f o r t h e i r r o u t e s . As i n d i c a t e d on F i g u r e 7 t h e r e are o n l y t h r e e r i v e r s w i t h i n Canada c o n v e n i e n t l y l o c a t e d i n terms o f the mountain passes, these are the F r a s e r , Thompson and the Skeena. F u r t h e r n o r t h the P i n e , a t r i b u t a r y o f the Peace, g i v e s r i s e t o a pass through the Rockies but does not p r e s e n t a r o u t e to the P a c i f i c . The Peace, F o r t Nelson and L i a r d R i v e r s d r a i n the n o r t h - e a s t c o r n e r of B r i t i s h Columbia, a l l are t r i b u t a r i e s of the Mackenzie and thus flow i n t o the A r c t i c and do not o f f e r a r o u t e to the P a c i f i c . The northwest of the p r o v i n c e i s d r a i n e d by the Skeena, Nass and S t i k i n e , a l l flow t o the P a c i f i c although the l a t t e r passes through A l a s k a . F i g u r e 8 shows the two major or t r a n s c o n t i n e n t a l r a i l r o a d s and the f o u r of l e s s e r importance which serve the Western P r o v i n c e s . Both the CNR and CP R a i l have m a i n l i n e s r u n n i n g through the t h r e e Western P r o v i n c e s , and operate numerous branch l i n e s i n Saskatchewan, A l b e r t a and B r i t i s h Columbia. The r e g i o n a l r a i l w a y s are (i) A l b e r t a Resources Railway (ARR), ( i i ) Northern A l b e r t a Railway (NAR), ( i i i ) P a c i f i c Great E a s t e r n (PGE), (iv) Great S l a v e Lake Railway (GSLR). A l b e r t a Resources Railway completed 2 34 m i l e s of r a i l r o a d i n Northern A l b e r t a from B r u l e on the CNR to Grand P r a i r i e on the NAR i n 1 9 6 9 . The l i n e , c o s t i n g $9 6 m i l l i o n i s owned by the A l b e r t a government but was 103 c o n s t r u c t e d and i s operated by the CNR. The r a i l r o a d was designed w i t h the view of h a n d l i n g 100 c a r u n i t t r a i n s weighing i n excess of 13,000 t o n s . A major o b j e c t i v e o f the r a i l r o a d was the c o a l f i e l d s of Smoky R i v e r near m i l e 110. F u r t h e r along, the l i n e serves a gas p l a n t which produces 1 100 tons o f s u l p h u r per day. The Northern A l b e r t a Railways, j o i n t l y owned by CP R a i l and the CNR, s e r v e s n o r t h and northwestern A l b e r t a . The r a i l w a y operates out of Edmonton w i t h i t s m a i n l i n e e x t e n d i n g through Grand P r a i r i e t o Dawson Creek, B.C. A n o r t h e r n branch goes from Carbondale through Lac La Biche to Lynton. The main l i n e has 85 t o 100 pound r a i l and i s thus capable o f c a r r y i n g a s h o r t u n i t t r a i n . The P a c i f i c Great E a s t e r n operates 862 m i l e s o f m a i n l i n e t r a c k i n B r i t i s h Columbia extend i n g from North Vancouver n o r t h t o Dawson Creek and F o r t S t . John. In a d d i t i o n two l i n e s are under c o n s t r u c t i o n one e x t e n d i n g 80 m i l e s n o r t h -w e s t e r l y from F o r t S t . James t o T a k l a Lake, the o t h e r running 250 n o r t h from F o r t S t . John t o F o r t N e l s o n j the l a t t e r i s scheduled f o r completion i n 1971 (see F i g u r e 9 ) . A t h i r d e x t e n s i o n from T a k l a Lake t o Dease Lake i s planned, i t would p r o v i d e access t o the remote north-west c o r n e r of B r i t i s h Columbia. There i s a c o n n e c t i o n between the PGE and CNR a t P r i n c e George and w i t h the NAR a t Dawson Creek. The 1970 work program completed the l a y i n g of 100 pound r a i l o r o 106 b e t t e r a l o n g the e n t i r e m a i n l i n e from North Vancouver to P r i n c e George. T h i s would enable the o p e r a t i o n of l i g h t u n i t t r a i n s on t h i s r o u t e . The Great Slave Lake Railway runs from Roma on the NAR f o r 430 m i l e s through n o r t h e r n A l b e r t a and the North-west T e r r i t o r i e s t o the Pine P o i n t mine on Great S l a v e Lake. I t was completed i n 1965 and i s operated by Canadian N a t i o n a l Railways. Automatic t r a i n o p e r a t i o n has been i n p a r t i a l use on t h i s l i n e s i n c e 1968. The Canadian N a t i o n a l main l i n e extends from Saskatoon through Edmonton to Yellowhead Pass, the l i n e then b r a n c h e s — o n e p r o c e e d i n g south t o P o r t Mann and Vancouver, the N orthern t r a n s c o n t i n e n t a l l i n e passes through P r i n c e George enroute t o P r i n c e Rupert. A branch of the l a t t e r completed i n 1955 connects K i t i m a t w i t h the m a i n l i n e a t T e r r a c e . The CP R a i l m a i n l i n e runs from Winnipeg t o C a l g a r y v i a Regina and Moose Jaw then through K i c k i n g Horse and Rogers Passes and f i n a l l y f o l l o w s the F r a s e r t o Vancouver. A second l i n e from C a l g a r y through Crowsnest Pass and Nelson j o i n s the o t h e r l i n e a t Spences B r i d g e and Hope. The l a t t e r i s not o f the s t a n d a r d of the K i c k i n g Horse Pass l i n e , f o r t h i s r eason the u n i t t r a i n s o p e r a t i n g out of Sparwood are r o u t e d n o r t h through Invermere and meet the f i r s t l i n e at Golden. A spur l i n e connects C a l g a r y w i t h Edmonton. 107 (b) Lower Mainland Burrard Peninsula . The Vancouver side of Burrard I n l e t was f i r s t served by CP R a i l , t h e i r l i n e fol lows the southern shore l ine from the head of the I n l e t at Port Moody to downtown Vancouver. The Canadian N a t i o n a l Railways (CNR) and the Bur l ington Northern (BN) serve some of the Nat ional Harbours Board (NHB) docks and most of the gra in e levators but must r e l y on CP R a i l for switching for some waterfront customers. Both the CN and BN l i n e s cross from south-east to north-west; t h e i r yards are located away from the water-f r o n t , east of False Creek. B r i t i s h Columbia Hydro and Power A u t h o r i t y (BCH & PA) have one l i n e and operate a CP R a i l owned l i n e , but no port f a c i l i t i e s are served by e i t h e r l i n e . North Shore Burrard I n l e t . Both CN and P a c i f i c Great Eastern (PGE) serve the North Shore, the former the eastern p o r t i o n and the l a t t e r running west from the i n t e r -change point west of Lonsdale Avenue. In March 1969 the CNR completed a two mile long rai lway tunnel and new rai lway bridge which provided a d i r e c t route to the North Shore from Burnaby. In a d d i t i o n to t h i s bridge l i n k , a r a i l f e r r y interconnect ion across the I n l e t i s maintained wi th CP R a i l by the PGE. The l o c a t i o n of the mainlines on the peninsula and North Shore i s shown on Figure 1 0 . LOCATION OF BULK TERMINALS ON BURRARD INLET IN RELATION TO RAIL NETWORK • : — — """" M o CO 109 2. Commodity L o c a t i o n The bulk commodities which w i l l be shipped through B r i t i s h Columbia p o r t s were i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter I I I as i r o n ore, c o a l , copper ore and concentrates, sulphur, and f e r t i l i z e r s ( i n c l u d i n g potash). The sources of these commodities i s c h i e f l y i n B r i t i s h Columbia and A l b e r t a ; the one exception being p o t a s h — w i t h a l l the production o r i g i n a t i n g i n Saskatchewan. A review of the accompanying maps, shows t h a t there i s a c o n c e n t r a t i o n of production even w i t h i n a p r o v i n c e . I t can be seen t h a t bituminous c o a l production i s concentrated i n the mountain and f o o t h i l l b e l t s . A l l pro-ducing c o a l mines are served by r a i l , the only new l i n e t h a t was b u i l t t o connect a c o a l mine was the ARR; i n a d d i t i o n Luscar i s o f f the main l i n e but connected by a spur. For the next few years the v a s t m a j o r i t y of the c o a l w i l l be produced i n areas served by CP R a i l . However, when Mclntyre reach f u l l p r o d u c t i o n about an equal amount should move over CN l i n e s . F i g u r e 11 shows the mine l o c a t i o n s and the t r a n s p o r -t a t i o n r o u t i n g s ; d e t a i l s of long term c o n t r a c t s w i t h Japanese f i r m s are given i n Appendix V. B r i t i s h Columbia ranks second i n r e s e r v e s , having about 30 per cent of the c o a l i n Canada. Coal i s w i d e l y d i s t r i b u t e d i n B r i t i s h Columbia, the East Kootenay being the l a r g e s t f i e l d . In the past, other areas i n c l u d i n g Vancouver Y U K O N 110 PRINCE RUPERTC KITIMAT«^V, *1 P G PRINCE - r x-f» GEORGE f A L B E R T A P A C I F I C OCEAN USA 1. M c l n t y r e 2. Canmore 3. Coleman 4. K a i s e r 5. F o r d i n g R i v e r 6. Luscar COAL MINES IN WESTERN CANADA I l l I s l a n d produced l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f c o a l . Recent work has i n d i c a t e d q u i t e l a r g e areas o f c o a l - b e a r i n g rocks i n the Peace R i v e r area west of F o r t S t . John and i n a d d i t i o n , the Dawson 3 Creek area appears t o be p r o m i s i n g . The p r i n c i p a l c o a l p r o d u c i n g r e g i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia, the E a s t Kootenay a r e a , has l a r g e r e s e r v e s of medium v o l a t i l e bituminous c o a l w i t h e x c e l l e n t c o k i n g p r o p e r t i e s . S i n c e 1968 n e a r l y a l l c o a l p r o d u c t i o n has been from the M i c h e l - N a t a l c o l l i e r y i n the E a s t Kootenay now owned by K a i s e r Resources L i m i t e d . K a i s e r has completed a c o a l p r e p a r a t i o n p l a n t near Sparwood designed to handle from 6.5 to 7 m i l l i o n tons a n n u a l l y . J u s t under 30 per cent o f the Canadian c o a l r e s e r v e s are i n A l b e r t a . A l a r g e p a r t of t h e bituminous c o a l i n the F o o t h i l l s r e g i o n i s of e x c e l l e n t c o k i n g q u a l i t y . T h i s c o a l i s l a r g e l y produced i n f o u r s e p a r a t e a r e a s : Crowsnest Pass, Cascade, C o a l s p u r , and Smoky R i v e r . The two p r o d u c i n g mines i n the r e g i o n are Coleman C o l l i e r i e s L i m i t e d and The Canmore Mines L i m i t e d . Two o t h e r mines are l o c a t e d i n the n o r t h e r n A l b e r t a F o o t h i l l s r e g i o n . L u s c a r ( C a r d i n a l R i v e r C o a l s L i m i t e d ) operates a s t r i p mine about 25 m i l e s south of H i n t o n i n the C o a l s p u r a r e a . M c l n t y r e C o a l Mines L i m i t e d have an 3 B r i t i s h Columbia, Department o f Mines and Petroleum Resources, Geology, E x p l o r a t i o n and M i n i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia 1969, ( V i c t o r i a : Queen's P r i n t e r , 1969). 112 o p e r a t i o n i n the Smokey R i v e r area 240 m i l e s northwest of Edmonton. The mine i s served by the A l b e r t a Resources Railway which j o i n s the CNR main l i n e a t B r u l e . The mines e x p o r t i n g copper c o n c e n t r a t e s are l o c a t e d i n the Highland V a l l e y - M e r r i t t d i s t r i c t i n the south c e n t r a l p a r t of B r i t i s h Columbia. Three of the p r o d u c i n g mines are not l o c a t e d i n the mainland w h i l e a f o u r t h i s l o c a t e d i n the c e n t r a l i n t e r i o r n o r t h of the CN l i n e r u n ning from P r i n c e George t o P r i n c e Rupert. Many of the mines are not served by r a i l and the copper c o n c e n t r a t e goes by road. F i g u r e 12 shows the l o c a t i o n of p r o d u c i n g mines and t h e i r e xport market. The i r o n ore mines are l o c a t e d on the c o a s t and are s h i p p i n g d i r e c t l y from t h e i r s i t e by water. The l o c a t i o n o f the mines i s shown on F i g u r e 6. Sulphur, i n the main, i s produced i n a b e l t r u n ning between C a l g a r y and Edmonton. The p l a n t s are served by e i t h e r Canadian N a t i o n a l or CP R a i l . P l a n t l o c a t i o n s are shown on F i g u r e 13 a l o n g w i t h the l o c a t i o n s of potash mines. Potash mining i s e x c l u s i v e t o southern Saskatchewan w i t h i n a b e l t bounded on the n o r t h by Saskatoon and i n the south by Regina. In the main the b u l k m a t e r i a l s are l o c a t e d on CP R a i l and CN l i n e s , both of these r a i l r o a d s have t h e i r m a i n l i n e s l e a d i n g t o the P o r t of Vancouver. As the PGE extends i t s l i n e s t o the north-west i t w i l l tap a d d i t i o n a l sources of raw 113 \ T0> U . S . A . FIG. BRITISH COLUMBIA COPPER PRODUCERS AND MARKET . 1969 1 2 m a t e r i a l s and i t s share of bulk tonnage sh o u l d i n c r e a s e ; t h e i r l i n e a l s o extends south t o Squamish and the P o r t o f Vancouver. I t can be seen from the above d i s c u s s i o n t h a t the l o c a t i o n o f the bulk m a t e r i a l s and the e x i s t i n g r a i l network enhance the lower mainland as a l o c a t i o n f o r marine bulk l o a d i n g . The p o s s i b i l i t y o f moving Smokey R i v e r c o a l over the CN n o r t h e r n t r a n s c o n t i n e n t a l l i n e and the e s t a b l i s h m e n t 4 o f a bulk t e r m i n a l a t P r i n c e Rupert appears good and would be an e x c e p t i o n t o the r u l e . A t the same time the mountains impose b a r r i e r s to b u i l d i n g r a i l - l i n e s t o new harbour l o c a t i o n s . C. THE PORT OF VANCOUVER T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l d e s c r i b e the P o r t o f Vancouver i n g e n e r a l and the e x i s t i n g b u l k t e r m i n a l o p e r a t i o n s i n B u r r a r d I n l e t and a t Roberts Bank, p o s s i b l e l o c a t i o n s f o r new t e r m i n a l s and the expansion o f the e x i s t i n g p l a n t s w i l l a l s o be d i s c u s s e d . M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver comprises f i f t e e n d i f f e r e n t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and s e v e r a l unorganized t e r r i t o r i e s a d m i n i s t e r e d by the p r o v i n c i a l government. There are t h r e e s e p a r a t e bodies Vancouver Sun, A p r i l 22, 1971, p. 39. governing the harbours w i t h i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n area: the n o r t h arm of the F r a s e r R i v e r i s under the c o n t r o l of the North F r a s e r Harbour Commissioners, the New W e s t m i n s t e r - P i t t R i v e r area by the F r a s e r R i v e r Harbour Board and the P o r t of Vancouver i s a d m i n i s t e r e d by the N a t i o n a l Harbours Board. The o r i g i n a l harbours boundaries f o r the l a t t e r were d e f i n e d by A c t o f P a r l i a m e n t i n 1913 as a l i n e running between P o i n t Grey and A t k i n s o n P o i n t . In September 1967 the p o r t was expanded t o cover n e a r l y 200 square m i l e s extending south t o the U n i t e d S t a t e s border. The l i m i t s are shown on F i g u r e 14. The o r i g i n a l harbour can be s u b d i v i d e d i n t o E n g l i s h Bay and B u r r a r d I n l e t . No deep sea f a c i l i t i e s are maintained o u t s i d e of B u r r a r d I n l e t . E n g l i s h Bay i s more exposed and has not been used f o r wharfage; i t i s u t i l i z e d , however, as an anchorage f o r deep sea v e s s e l s . The i n n e r harbour on B u r r a r d I n l e t i s a n a t u r a l and s h e l t e r e d harbour w i t h some f i f t y square m i l e s of water area. The c o n t r o l l i n g water depth of 39 f e e t ( i . e . , below lowest normal t i d e s ) has been j u s t i n s i d e the F i r s t Narrows. The main channel depth i s then 50 f e e t as f a r as the entrance t o P o r t Moody where the channel has been dredged t o 40 f e e t . The F i r s t Narrows i s now.being dredged a t a c o s t of $2.9 m i l l i o n . The removal of t h i s heavy g r a v e l from the bottom w i l l p r o v i d e a 50 f o o t deep channel i n t o B u r r a r d I n l e t . There i s no s i l t i n g i n the harbour, thus, on completion of the work no maintenance d r e d g i n g w i l l be r e q u i r e d ; depth w i l l then be 50 f e e t . P o r t f a c i l i t i e s i n c l u d e over e i g h t y b e r t h s f o r deep sea c r a f t . Of these, nine are dry b u l k b e r t h s which are l o c a t e d a t t h r e e t e r m i n a l s w i t h i n the I n l e t . The p o r t i s served by two n a t i o n a l , one i n t e r n a t i o n a l and one r e g i o n a l r a i l w a y . The f i r s t t r a i n from the e a s t a r r i v e d i n Vancouver on May 23, 1887. The r a i l l i n k p e r m i t t e d cargo from the O r i e n t t o reach London v i a New York i n 29 days. The opening of the Panama Canal i n 1914 o f f e r e d c o m p e t i t i o n to the t r a n s c o n t i n e n t a l movement of goods from the e a s t but made i t f e a s i b l e f o r r e g u l a r s h i p p i n g t r a f f i c t o operate between the P a c i f i c Coast and Europe and thus opened Vancouver up as a g r a i n p o r t . From a s i n g l e e l e v a t o r i n 1914 Vancouver has p r o g r e s s e d to the p o i n t where g r a i n i s the b i g g e s t s i n g l e item i n p o r t b u s i n e s s w i t h over 700 m i l l i o n b u s h e l s of wheat expected to be exported i n 19 71.^ In 1970 the p o r t saw 17,276 deep-sea and c o a s t a l s h i p s c a l l i n g . They brought 5.3 m i l l i o n tons of cargo and c a r r i e d away 21.8 m i l l i o n tons of e x p o r t s , making Vancouver the b u s i e s t dry bulk p o r t on the P a c i f i c Coast of North and South 5 Vancouver Sun, A p r i l 3, 1971, p. 20. 0 1 2 3 4 119 A m e r i c a . U s i n g t h e f i g u r e o f $10 as t h e average p e r t o n e x p e n d i t u r e r e s u l t i n g from c a r g o , means t h e p o r t c o n t r i b u t e d o v e r $270 m i l l i o n t o t h e l o c a l economy.^ F i g u r e 10 shows t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e t h r e e b u l k t e r m i n a l s on B u r r a r d I n l e t w h i c h s h a l l now be d e s c r i b e d . 1. P a c i f i c C o a s t B u l k T e r m i n a l s L i m i t e d T h i s f a c i l i t y i s l o c a t e d i n t h e upper o r e a s t e r n r e a c h e s o f B u r r a r d I n l e t i n P o r t Moody. I t was t h e f i r s t b u l k t e r m i n a l i n t h e P o r t o f Vancouver and i s l o c a t e d on 105 a c r e s o f r e c l a i m e d l a n d owned by t h e N a t i o n a l Harbours Board. The t e r m i n a l h a n d l e s p o t a s h , s u l p h u r , c o a l and s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s o f f e r t i l i z e r . Covered s t o r a g e o f 80,000 t o n s i s p r o v i d e d f o r p o t a s h ; s u l p h u r w i t h a 70,000 t o n s t o c k p i l e and c o a l (110,000) a r e n o t s t o r e d under c o v e r . T e r m i n a l D e s i g n . T e r m i n a l t r a c k a g e p a r a l l e l s t h e CP R a i l m a i n l i n e and can accommodate 37 0 l o a d e d and 110 empty c a r s . U n i t t r a i n s must be broken-up i n t o s t r i n g s t o e n t e r e i t h e r o f t h e two r o t a r y dumpers. Two deep sea b e r t h s a r e s e r v e d by two l o a d e r s t h e deeper b e r t h can accommodate s h i p s w i t h a d r a f t o f 45 f e e t a l t h o u g h c h a n n e l d e p t h i s 40 f e e t . 6 I b i d . 120 2. Vancouver Wharves L i m i t e d The a r e a s second o l d e s t t e r m i n a l i s l o c a t e d on t h e n o r t h s hore o f B u r r a r d I n l e t i n t h e D i s t r i c t o f N o r t h Vancouver. I t s f i r s t s h i p was l o a d e d i n May 1960 w h i l e t h e f a c i l i t y was under c o n s t r u c t i o n . I t i s a d i v e r s i f i e d o p e r a t i o n and h a n d l e s m e t a l c o n c e n t r a t e s , p o t a s h , phosphate, s u l p h u r , p u l p , paper and lumber. The t e r m i n a l u t i l i z e s 130 a c r e s o f a 159 a c r e s i t e , t h e d e t a i l s o f t h e b e r t h s a r e g i v e n i n t h e ap p e n d i x . The l a n d i t s e l f i s owned by t h e NHB. When u n i t t r a i n s a r r i v e a t t h e s i t e , t h e r a i l w a y ' s l o c o m o t i v e s a r e removed and e n g i n e s b e l o n g i n g t o Vancouver Wharves s p o t t h e c a r s i n s t r i n g s i n t h e i r y a r d . The t e r m i n a l i s o f t y p e 1 as shown i n F i g u r e 4 o f C h a p t e r I I . S u l p h u r - T h i s p r o d u c t a r r i v e s a t t h e t e r m i n a l by u n i t t r a i n , t h e go n d o l a c a r s a r e emptied by r o t a r y c a r dumper and the m a t e r i a l s t o r e d i n a 70,000 t o n s t o c k p i l e . P o t a s h - P o t a s h i s d e l i v e r e d by u n i t t r a i n , t h e t r a i n i s t h e n b r o k e n i n t o s e c t i o n s , each c o n s i s t i n g o f a few 100 t o n c o v e r e d hopper c a r s , t h e s e a r e dumped i n t o a bottom dump hopper p i t and conveyed t o a 170,000 t o n s t o r a g e . Phosphate - t h e p r o d u c t i s r e c e i v e d by s h i p and can be s t o r e d on t h e s i t e i n a 47,500 t o n s i l o p r i o r t o moving t o A l b e r t a i n t h e same c o v e r e d hoppers used t o t r a n s p o r t p o t a s h . 7 I n t e r v i e w w i t h R.N. L a n d a h l , A s s i s t a n t t o t h e S a l e s Manager, Vancouver Wharves L i m i t e d , March 25, 1971. 121 C o n c e n t r a t e - i s r e c e i v e d i n p o l y e t h y l e n e c o v e r e d g o n d o l a c a r s , by c o n t a i n e r and by highway s e m i - t r a i l e r . P u l p and paper a r e r e c e i v e d by r a i l and by bar g e . W h i l e lumber i s t r a n s p o r t e d t o t h e s i t e by r a i l and by t r u c k . g 3 . Neptune T e r m i n a l s L i m i t e d The f a c i l i t y i s l o c a t e d i n t h e C i t y o f N o r t h Vancouver on l a n d owned by t h e NHB. C o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e 75 a c r e f a c i l i t y began i n 1967 and was completed i n s t a g e s p r o v i d i n g b e r t h s f o r t h e h a n d l i n g o f p o t a s h i n 1967, phosphate and s a l t i n t h e f a l l o f 1968 and c o a l i n F e b r u a r y o f 1970. T h i s was t h e t h i r d t e r m i n a l b u i l t i n B u r r a r d I n l e t and t h e f i r s t t o be d e s i g n e d t o make e f f e c t i v e use o f u n i t t r a i n s . Two c o n t i n u o u s t r a i n t r a c k s e n c i r c l e t h e s i t e and p e r m i t t h e m a i n l i n e e n g i n e s t o d e l i v e r two s e p a r a t e t r a i n s o f up t o 125 c a r s and a l l o w t h e d i s c h a r g e o f c o a l and p o t a s h s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . A t h i r d l o o p t r a c k goes p a r t way around t h e s i t e . M c l n t y r e - P o r c u p i n e and L u s c a r e x p o r t c o a l t h r o u g h t h e t e r m i n a l ; c o a l a r r i v e s i n 85 c a r u n i t t r a i n s o p e r a t e d by Cana d i a n N a t i o n a l and pass t h r o u g h t h e r o t a r y c a r dump, t h e c o a l goes e i t h e r d i r e c t l y t o t h e s h i p o r t o s t o c k p i l e ; t h e s i t e p r o v i d e s f o r two s t o c k p i l e s each o f 200,000 t o n s . g I n t e r v i e w w i t h H.M. McLennan, August 4, 1970. 122 T h i s t e r m i n a l proves t h a t the dust problem can be c o n t r o l l e d , p e r s o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n showed no evidence of dust w i t h i n the c a r u n l o a d i n g shed w h i l e the t r a i n was being unloaded, or a t s h i p s i d e d u r i n g the l o a d i n g o p e r a t i o n . A t the time of my v i s i t , the c o a l was b e i n g loaded d i r e c t l y from the t r a i n t o the s h i p ; wind v e l o c i t y was moderate and no dust was observed blowing from the s t o c k p i l e . The surge area i s equipped w i t h h i g h p r e s s u r e n o z z l e s which a l l o w the s t o c k p i l e s t o be watered down when the wind i s blowing. 4. Westshore Terminals L i m i t e d The Roberts Bank su p e r p o r t l o c a t e d twenty m i l e s south of Vancouver saw the opening of i t s f i r s t t e r m i n a l e a r l y i n 1970. Up t o t h a t time the h i s t o r y of Roberts Bank had been f i l l e d w i t h continuous c o n t r o v e r s y . F i r s t , over the need f o r a deep water t e r m i n a l t o p r o v i d e f o r super bulk c a r r i e r s ; then a f t e r t h i s was s e t t l e d , the c o n t r o v e r s y over the s i t i n g of the r a i l c o n n e c t i o n grew to even l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n s . L a t e i n 19 66 NHB commissioned Swan Wooster E n g i n e e r i n g to assess B u r r a r d I n l e t ' s f u t u r e adequacy as a deep-sea bulk p o r t . They recommended t h a t one of the th r e e F r a s e r R i v e r t i d a l banks—Boundary Bay, Roberts Bank or Sturgeon B a n k — be developed. A more d e t a i l e d study was c a r r i e d out and concluded t h a t Roberts Bank be developed as the " o u t e r p o r t . " 123 The f i r s t s t a g e was u n d e r t a k e n by t h e Harbours Board i n J u l y 1968;.at a c o s t o f $5 m i l l i o n a c h a n n e l and b e r t h — h a v i n g a d e p t h o f s i x t y - f i v e f e e t below low wa t e r ( i . e . c a p a b l e o f t a k i n g s h i p s o f 150,000 dwt) was dredged. The dredged m a t e r i a l was t h e n used t o b u i l d up a f i f t y - f i v e a c r e i s l a n d and a t h r e e m i l e causeway t o t h e s h o r e . K a i s e r s p e n t an a d d i t i o n a l n i n e m i l l i o n d o l l a r s on c o a l h a n d l i n g equipment and a f u r t h e r e x p e n d i t u r e o f two m i l l i o n was made f o r s e r v i c e s . The f i r s t c o a l a r r i v e d by u n i t t r a i n on A p r i l 30, 1970; t h e f i r s t s h i p d e p a r t e d w i t h 25,000 t o n s d u r i n g t h e f i r s t week o f May. Up t o t h e p r e s e n t time t h e l a r g e s t s h i p t o c a l l has been t h e Chekugo Maru w h i c h made h e r maiden voyage c a r r y -i n g 110,000 t o n s o f c o a l from R o b e r t s Bank i n mid Oc t o b e r 1970. T h i s t e r m i n a l as w e l l as Neptune a r e t h e two t e r m i n a l s c a p a b l e o f h a n d l i n g i n t e g r a l t r a i n s . The u n i t t r a i n s e r v i n g R o b e r t s Bank has been d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p t e r I I . F i g u r e 15 shows t h e "master p l a n " f o r R o b e r t s Bank s u p e r p o r t as e n v i s a g e d by Swan Wooster. There i s room f o r f i f t y deep-sea b e r t h s , backed up by 1,360 a c r e s , p l u s 3,630 a c r e s c o u l d be made a v a i l a b l e by r e c l a i m i n g t h e t i d a l f l a t s . I n a d d i t i o n t h e P r o v i n c e o f B r i t i s h Columbia has e x p r o p r i a t e d 3,000 a c r e s a l o n g t h e r a i l c o r r i d o r t o p r e v e n t a c o n f l i c t between t h e r a i l r o a d and p o s s i b l e r e s i d e n t i a l development and t o p r o v i d e an i n d u s t r i a l l a n d bank. Designated Open Channel to accommodate B.C. Hydro H.V.O.C. cables. MASTER PLAN - ROBERTS BANK DEVELOPMENT % SWAN WOOSTER ENGINERING CO. LTD. • CAL* IN »• BT PORT OF VANCOUVER ROBERTS BANK F I G . 1 5 t o 125 5. The C o n f l i c t s The b u l k t e r m i n a l s w i t h i n B u r r a r d I n l e t have been i n c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e s u r r o u n d i n g r e s i d e n t i a l neighbourhoods and some e n v i r o n m e n t a l groups. T h i s has been p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t i n r e g a r d s t o Neptune, t h e newest o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s . The f i r s t p r o d u c t h a n d l e d by t h i s t e r m i n a l was p o t a s h , s i n c e t h i s commodity a r r i v e s i n c o v e r e d hopper c a r s and i s s t o r e d i n e n c l o s e d b u i l d i n g s w i t h e v e r y e f f o r t b e i n g made t o keep t h e m a t e r i a l d r y , t h e r e i s l i t t l e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r d u s t e m i s s i o n . The second p r o d u c t t o be h a n d l e d was phosphate w h i c h i s a l s o s t o r e d i n c l o s e d s i l o s and lo a d e d i n hopper c a r s t h r o u g h o p e n i n g i n t h e t o p , once a g a i n t h e r e o c c u r r e d no v i s i b l e a i r p o l l u t i o n . The t h i r d p r o d u c t t o be h a n d l e d was one most p e o p l e a r e f a m i l i a r w i t h — c o a l — t h e s u b m i s s i o n o f p l a n s t o N o r t h Vancouver C i t y C o u n c i l i n 1969 f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g t h e c o a l h a n d l i n g f a c i l i t y caused so much c o n t r o v e r s y t h a t Mr. Duncan the A c t i n g P o r t Manager p r e d i c t e d t h a t NHB would n o t a l l o w any f u t u r e f a c i l i t i e s t o be c o n s t r u c t e d w i t h o u t p r i o r c o n s u l t a t i o n s w i t h t h e communities a f f e c t e d . T h i s p o l i c y was c o n c u r r e d t o by t h e P o r t o f Vancouver Development Committee who passed a r e s o l u t i o n t h a t NHB d i s c u s s any a p p l i c a t i o n f o r b u l k l o a d i n g p l a n t w i t h t h e m u n i c i p a l i t y 9 c o n c e r n e d b e f o r e a p p r o v a l i s g i v e n . 9 Vancouver Sun, O c t o b e r 20, 1969. 126 As s t a t e d e a r l i e r I.witnessed no dust from s h i p l o a d i n g , t r a i n u n l o a d i n g or from the s t o c k p i l e on my v i s i t t o the Nepture s i t e ; nor have any r e p o r t s appeared i n the Vancouver Sun s i n c e the t e r m i n a l s t a r t e d h a n d l i n g c o a l . The c o n c l u s i o n I have drawn i s t h a t the dust need not be a problem i f the proper dust c o n t r o l equipment i s i n s t a l l e d and p r o p e r l y maintained. One year a f t e r the episode w i t h c o a l the c i t y o f North Vancouver a l t e r e d t h e i r by-law e f f e c t i v e l y p r e v e n t i n g Neptune from e n t e r i n g i n t o the sulphur b u s i n e s s . U n t i l q u i t e r e c e n t l y sulphur was handled i n crushed form and p a r t i c l e s i z e v a r i e d from powder t o a f i n e g r a i n ; h a n d l i n g o f the product i n v a r i a b l y gave r i s e t o dust. Water i s not used t o s u r p r e s s the dust because of the weight added t o the product, nor i s sulphur s t o r e d i n s i l o s , because of the danger of an e x p l o s i o n . Undoubtedly the h a n d l i n g of sulphur i n crushed form caused a i r p o l l u t i o n . Sulphur i s g e n e r a l l y s t o r e d beneath "A" frame r o o f e d b u i l d i n g s which o f f e r p r o t e c t i o n from r a i n but does not prevent wind from blowing dust, from the surge p i l e s . Recent press r e p o r t s would i n d i c a t e t h a t the use of s l a t e sulphur w i l l decrease the v i s i b l e p o l l u t i o n , i t i s expected t h a t Vancouver Wharves w i l l s t a r t h a n d l i n g sulphur i n i t s new form i n A p r i l 19 71. The company c l a i m s s l a t e s u l phur reduces the amount of dust by over n i n e t y per c e n t . 1 ^ ^ V a n c o u v e r Sun, November 24, 1970, p. 18. 127 A c c o r d i n g t o B. C. Research the bulk h a n d l i n g of s u l p h u r , phosphate rock and potash show visible dust plumes, q u a n t a t i v e o b s e r v a t i o n s by them show phosphate t o be the worst o f f e n d e r . In t h e i r r e p o r t t h e y . s t a t e d : The potash and sulphur dusts were found to be l i m i t e d t o an area w i t h i n 1/2 t o 3/4 of a m i l e o f the bul k t e r m i n a l s i t e ; beyond t h i s d i s t a n c e the c o n t r i b u t i o n t o d u s t f a l l l e v e l from the bulk t e r m i n a l o p e r a t i o n s i s zero. 11 The r e p o r t went on t o recommend: A i r p o l l u t i o n from the bulk t r a n s p o r t i n d u s t r y , w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of g r a i n h a n d l i n g , i s a t p r e s e n t r a t h e r minor. However we recommend t h a t l o c a t i o n of bulk h a n d l i n g f a c i l i t i e s i n areas such as Roberts Bank be encouraged. In a d d i t i o n , s i n c e dust from uncovered hopper r a i l w a y c a r s has caused l o c a l problems, the r o u t i n g of r a i l w a y l i n e s and zoning f o r r e s i d e n t i a l areas should be c o n s i d e r e d t o g e t h e r t o minimize t h i s n uisance. 12 6. P o t e n t i a l L o c a t i o n s In t h e i r study which recommended the b u i l d i n g o f a su p e r - p o r t at Roberts Bank, Swan Wooster s t a t e d the f o l l o w i n g as the demands f u t u r e t r a d e would make on a Vancouver t e r m i n a l : (i) Very l a r g e acerage of l e v e l l a n d , p o s s i b l y up to 100 acres per b e r t h , immediately a d j a c e n t t o the b e r t h area. B.C. Research, Environmental P o l l u t i o n S t u d i e s , A i r Q u a l i t y i n B r i t i s h Columbia, (Vancouver: B.C. Research, December 1 9 7 0 ) , p. 49. 1 2 I b i d . 1 -> JSwan Wooster E n g i n e e r i n g Co. L t d . , P l a n n i n g Study  For Outer P o r t Development at Vancouver B.C., (Vancouver: Swan Wooster E n g i n e e r i n g Co. L t d ~ J u l y 1967)"^ pT 34. 128 ( i i ) Water depths up to s i x t y f e e t and p o s s i b l y more i n the f u t u r e . ( i i i ) D i r e c t r a i l w a y a c c e s s , c l e a r o f congested b u i l t - u p areas. (iv) D i r e c t v e s s e l access from deep water t o minimize i n - p o r t time. (v) Very h i g h l o a d i n g r a t e s i n t e r m i n a l equipment, w i t h a s s o c i a t e d l a r g e s t o c k p i l e . 13 T h e i r study which was r e s t r i c t e d to the e n l a r g e d P o r t of Vancouver, found t h a t these c o n d i t i o n s c o u l d be met 14 on l y t o a l i m i t e d e x t e n t i n B u r r a r d I n l e t . The i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h i s chapter would l e a d me t o concur w i t h t h i s f i n d i n g ; i n my o p i n i o n the problems of r a i l access would be the d e c i d i n g f a c t o r i n a d v i s i n g t h a t a f a c i l i t y be l o c a t e d o u t s i d e B u r r a r d I n l e t . Swan Wooster E n g i n e e r i n g Co. L t d . , P l a n n i n g Study f o r Outer P o r t Development at Vancouver B.C., (Vancouver: Swan Wooster E n g i n e e r i n g C o T - L t d . , J u l y 1967), p. 34. 1 4 I b i d . CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS A. CONCLUSIONS I t i s shown i n Chapter I I t h a t the c o s t o f the ocean segment of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system can be g r e a t l y reduced by the employment of super bulk c a r r i e r s and t h a t the s a v i n g c o n t i n u e s up t o about 200,000 dwt. I t was a l s o found t h a t the s a v i n g c o u l d o n l y accrue t o the sea component i f the turnaround time o f the s h i p i s reduced. In or d e r t o reduce the time spent i n p o r t i t i s necessary t o l o a d the s h i p more q u i c k l y . T h i s requirement can be met by having a s u i t a b l e s t o c k p i l e and/or improvements i n i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . At the p r e s e n t time i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t improvements take the form of the u n i t t r a i n . Use of the u n i t t r a i n r e s u l t s i n a uni f o r m supply o f the s t o c k p i l e and a t the same time reduces the c o s t of i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t . I t i s a l s o shown t h a t movement of s o l i d s by p i p e -l i n e i s j u s t around the corner and t h a t t h i s w i l l r e s u l t i n a f u r t h e r decrease i n i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t c o s t s . U n t i l such time as p i p e l i n e s are proven i n o p e r a t i o n , t e r m i n a l s should be designed t o accommodate i n t e g r a l t r a i n s . 130 Increased t r a d e i n b u l k m a t e r i a l s and c o m p e t i t i o n f o r a share i n t h i s t r a d e , has r e s u l t e d i n the i n t r o d u c t i o n of super bulk c a r r i e r s both i n a world wide sense and f o r the movement of c e r t a i n b u l k commodities through B r i t i s h Columbia p o r t s . A f u r t h e r c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t modern t e r m i n a l f a c i l i t i e s must be p r o v i d e d t o enable these l a r g e v e s s e l s t o be employed e c o n o m i c a l l y . T h i s i n v o l v e s c o n s i d e r a t i o n of a l l t h r e e components — i n l a n d , t e r m i n a l and s e a — a s a s i n g l e system i n o r d e r t o p r o v i d e f o r the e f f i c i e n t movement of bulk commodities. The study has found t h a t many harbours i n B r i t i s h Columbia have the p h y s i c a l f e a t u r e s necessary to accommodate s h i p s up to 200,000 dwt; the number having s u i t a b l e areas t h a t can be developed as a marine t e r m i n a l are c o n s i d e r a b l y l e s s . When the c o s t of s e r v i c i n g these s i t e s w i t h r a i l i s c o n s i d e r e d the number i s reduced s t i l l m o r e — t o f o u r or f i v e ; the l o c a t i o n s having e x i s t i n g r a i l c o nnections being the most favoured of these. The e x i s t i n g i n l a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n network, coupled w i t h the l o c a t i o n of the r e s o u r c e s favours a lower mainland l o c a t i o n f o r a t e r m i n a l ; w i t h a l o c a t i o n a t P r i n c e Rupert r a n k i n g second. I f a l l the bulk m a t e r i a l s were t o be handled through the lower mainland there i s some q u e s t i o n t h a t the e x i s t i n g r a i l network c o u l d handle p r e d i c t e d i n c r e a s e s i n bulk 131 volumes. The movement of bulk m a t e r i a l s t o the t e r m i n a l can tax the r a i l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system and prove i n c o n v e n i e n t to people l i v i n g a long the rou t e and t r a v e r s i n g the r a i l -l i n e ' a t grade c r o s s i n g s . The h a n d l i n g of dry bulk commodities a t a marine t e r m i n a l cause minor a i r p o l l u t i o n problems w i t h measurable e f f e c t s w i t h i n t h r e e q u a r t e r s o f a m i l e of the l o a d i n g p o i n t . A marine t e r m i n a l capable o f e f f i c i e n t l y h a n d l i n g super d r y bulk c a r r i e r s i s s e l f s u f f i c i e n t and do not r e q u i r e the s e r v i c e s o f an urban c e n t r e t o the same extent as a d i v e r s i f i e d bulk t e r m i n a l or a p o r t area devoted to g e n e r a l cargo. U t i l i z i n g the BCRC 1 estimate of the throughput of the f i r s t b e r t h as b e i n g 2.2 m i l l i o n tons (based on s i x t y - p e r cent occupancy) and o f the second as 4.4 m i l l i o n tons, the f o u r t e r m i n a l s i n the P o r t o f Vancouver have an export c a p a c i t y o f 22 m i l l i o n t o n s . Comparing t h i s w i t h the BCRC f o r e c a s t s ( c o a l i s , however, i n c r e a s e d from 10 to 12 m i l l i o n tons) f o r a 1985 throughput o f 27.5 m i l l i o n tons we f i n d t h e r e w i l l be a requirement, a t t h a t time, f o r two a d d i t i o n a l b e r t h s . In f a c t the p r e s e n t c a p a c i t y w i l l be reached i n 1975. "'"British Columbia Research C o u n c i l , Vancouver Harbour: T r a f f i c Trends and F a c i l i t y A n a l y s i s , Vancouver: B r i t i s h " Columbia Research C o u n c i l , 1967. 132 We have seen i n Chapter I I I t h a t t h r e e of the top f i v e commodities ( i r o n ore, c o a l and grain) i n world t r a d e are exported from the West Coast of Canada and t h a t the remaining two—phosphate and b a u x i t e and alumina are imported. Examination of p o r t s t a t i s t i c s showed t h a t i n a d d i t i o n t o these bulk commodities potash and sulphur are exported i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t y t o warrant i n c l u s i o n i n the i n v e s t i -g a t i o n . I t was a l s o found t h a t , a t the p r e s e n t time, only i r o n ore and c o a l are being moved to any ext e n t i n s h i p s of over 60,000 dwt. I t was a l s o found t h a t the l a r g e s h i p s are used t o the g r e a t e s t e x t e n t i n the supply of these two commodities i n t r a d e s w i t h Japan, although i r o n ore i s a l s o shipped t o a number of European s t e e l p l a n t s by super c a r r i e r . Examination of imports of phosphate and alumina through West Coast p o r t s showed t h a t s h i p s c a r r y i n g these products are r e s t r i c t e d i n s i z e by the l i m i t a t i o n s o f the Panama C a n a l and /that the movement i s t i e d i n wi t h potash movements t o the U.S. E a s t Coast. T u r n i n g next t o exports i t was found t h a t dry bulk commodities make up over s i x t y per cent of the export tonnage from the West Coast and t h a t Vancouver handled e i g h t y per cent of t h i s . 133 One product not shipped through Vancouver i s i r o n o r e . The i r o n mines are l o c a t e d next t o t i d e w a t e r and s h i p -ments are made d i r e c t l y from the s i t e . In a d d i t i o n export tonnage has been dro p p i n g s i n c e the m i d - s i x t i e s . The l a r g e s t s i n g l e item i s g r a i n , i t was concluded, e a r l y i n the study, t h a t g r a i n c o u l d f i n d a s o l u t i o n to i t s need f o r f a c i l i t i e s s e parate from the o t h e r bulk commodities. The t h i n k i n g behind t h i s i d e a i s (a) t h a t g r a i n i s moving i n r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l s h i p s (there are few import t e r m i n a l s which can handle l a r g e ships) and (b) the investment i n e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s and the i n s t i t u t i o n s s u r r o unding the growing, t r a n s p o r t and s e l l i n g of g r a i n w i l l be d i f f i c u l t t o a l t e r . I t was found t h a t s u l p h u r , potash and c o a l move i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s through the West Coast to c o n s i d e r movement by super b u l k c a r r i e r , but t h a t movement o f the f i r s t two would only o c c a s i o n a l l y be by s h i p over 50,000 dwt u n l e s s a C e n t r a l T e r m i n a l S t a t i o n was e s t a b l i s h e d i n A s i a . The o n l y product then t h a t moves i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s between two p o i n t s t o j u s t i f y the c o n s i s t e n t employment of super bulk c a r r i e r s i s c o a l ; and t h a t shipments t o Japan w i l l u t i l i z e v e s s e l s i n the 100,000 dwt range. Recent o r d e r s by the Japanese s t e e l i n d u s t r y i n d i c a t e t h a t i r o n ore and c o a l w i l l move i n s h i p s up to 130,000 dwt w i t h i n the next one or two y e a r s . 134 B. RECOMMENDATIONS The movement of raw m a t e r i a l s through West Coast Canada can impose severe problems on the e x i s t i n g t r a n s p o r -t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s and can a f f e c t the a s s o c i a t e d communities. I t i s recommended t h a t b e f o r e any d i r e c t or i n d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e s are made by governments on marine t e r m i n a l s t h a t a study should be made of the c a p a b i l i t y of the e x i s t -i n g r a i l network t o handle f u t u r e volumes and the a f f e c t s on the communities along the rou t e o f the new t r a f f i c . I n c r e a s i n g l y governments are b e i n g asked t o p r o v i d e f a c i l i t i e s f o r these l a r g e s h i p s , a l b e i t on a c o s t r e c o v e r y b a s i s ; i t i s t h e r e f o r e b e l i e v e d necessary t h a t the fo u r b a s i c q u e s t i o n s , which were not c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s study, should be the s u b j e c t f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h : (a) Should our raw m a t e r i a l s be exported? (b) I f so, a t what r a t e and t o what e x t e n t should they be e x p l o i t e d ? (c) Can the raw m a t e r i a l s be u t i l i z e d i n B r i t i s h Columbia or i n Canada, now or i n the s h o r t term f u t u r e ? (d) W i l l the raw m a t e r i a l be i n s h o r t supply i n the f u t u r e , thus a l l o w i n g a h i g h e r p r i c e at some f u t u r e time? F i n a l l y the recommendations of B.C. Research i s con-c u r r e d w i t h — n o new dry bulk t e r m i n a l s should be b u i l t on B u r r a r d -I n l e t . I would add t h a t the e f f e c t s of a i r p o l l u t i o n , t r a f f i c c o n g e s t i o n and the wishes of the communities be c o n s i d e r e d b e f o r e a l l o w i n g expansion of the e x i s t i n g t e r m i n a l s or the i n t r o d u c t i o n o f new p r o d u c t s . S E L E C T E D B I B L I O G R A P H Y SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY Alexandersson, Gunnar and Norstrom, Goren. World S h i p p i n g : An Economic Geography of P o r t s and Seaborne Trade. Kfew York: John Wiley &~"Sons, Inc. , 1963. Bendord, H. 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" Economic Geography/ V o l . 46:1, 1970, pp. 1-24. K e r f o o t , Dennis E. Port of B r i t i s h Columbia: Development  and Trading P a t t e r n s . B.C. Geographical S e r i e s , No. 2, Vancouver: T a n t a l u s Research L i m i t e d , 19 66. Klausner, Robert F. "The E v a l u a t i o n of Risk i n Marine C a p i t a l . " The Engineering Economist, V o l . 14, No. 4, 1969. "Land Use Admixture i n the B u i l t - u p Urban Waterfront." Economic Geography, XLIV A p r i l 1968, pp. 152-177. L e i g h t o n , F.C. A B r i e f on Development Problems of the Greater Vancouver Port Area. March 7, 19 66. . "The Economic Forces behind the Roberts Bank Superport Development." Paper presented to the annual meeting of the A s s o c i a t i o n of P r o f e s s i o n a l Engineers of B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., December 6, 1968. L e v i s , Edward V. "Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n Modal I n t e r f a c e s . " High  Speed Ground T r a n s p o r t a t i o n J o u r n a l . May 196 8, pp. 339-352. L i t t l e , C.H. "Giant Bulk C a r r i e r s . " Canadian Geographical  J o u r n a l , LXXVII, December 1966, pp. 196-203. Loroch, Kim J . V e s s e l Voyage Data A n a l y s i s . Cambridge, Md.: C o r n e l l Maritime P r e s s T 1966. Oberman, Leonard S. " F u n c t i o n a l Planning of Bulk M a t e r i a l s P o r t s . " J o u r n a l of the Waterway and Harbour D i v i s i o n , American S o c i e t y of C i v i l Engineers, V o l . 91, No. WW2, Proceedings paper 4310, May' 1965, pp. 17-25. Oram, R.B. Cargo Handling and the Modern P o r t . Oxford: Pergamon Press Ltd."^ 1965. O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic Co-operation and Development. Maritime Transport. P a r i s : OECD, 1968. 1969 139 P e t e r s , J o e r g E r n s t . "Commodity Trade Flows of B r i t i s h Columbia 1961-1964." Unpublished Master of A r t s Theses, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1969. Plumlee, C a r l H. "Optimum S i z e Sea P o r t . " J o u r n a l of the 'Waterways and Harbours D i v i s i o n , ASCE, V o l . 9~3, No. WW1, November 1967, pp. 107-132. Proceedings of the 5th Conference. The I n t e r n a t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n of P o r t s and Harbors, Tokyo, May 8-13, 1967. Proceedings of the Symposium Organized by and Held a t the I n s t i t u t i o n of C i v i l E n g i n e e r s . Modern Trends i n Bulk G r a i n I n s t a l l a t i o n s i n P o r t s . March 17, 1966, London. P r o c t o r , I r v i n g Leroy. "A S t a t i s t i c a l I n v e s t i g a t i o n of the Ocean C h a r t e r Market." Unpublished MBA T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1970. Ray, W i l l i a m W. S e l e c t i o n s of S i g n i f i c a n c e to the Urban  and R e g i o n a l Planner of P o r t s and H i n t e r l a n c H M o n t i c e l l o I l l i n o i s . C o u n c i l of P l a n n i n g L i b r a r i a n s 1970, exchange b i b l i o g r a p h y No. 131. Report on I n t e r n a t i o n a l Symposium on Middleterm and Long-term F o r c a s t i n g f o r S h i p b u i l d i n g and S h i p p i n g . The Hague: S t i c h t i n g Maritieme Research, 1970. Ruppenthal, K a r l M. ed. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n F r o n t i e r s . S t a n f o r d C a l i f o r n i a : Graduate School of B u s i n e s s , S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y , 1962. Shenker, E r i c . Economic Impact of a p o r t on Urban Community. 6th Annual Meeting T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Research Forum 1965. Tanner, M.F.; and W i l l i a m s A.F. "Port Development.and N a t i o n a l P l a n n i n g S t r a t e g y . " J o u r n a l of T r a n s -p o r t Economics and P o l i c y . V o l . 1, No. 3, September T9~6T, pp. 315-32TT Thasher, James P. " U n i t Cost: the Real B a s i s f o r Comparing T r a n s p o r t a t i o n T e c h n o l o g i e s . " F a i r p l a y , V o l . 225, no. 4393, (November 2, 1967), pp. 71-74. 140 U n i t T r a i n O p e r a t i o n s . C h i c a g o : R a i l w a y Systems and Management A s s o c i a t i o n , J a n u a r y 1967. U n i t e d N a t i o n s . C o n f e r e n c e on Trade and Development. Review o f M a r i t i m e T r a n s p o r t , 1969. (TD/B/C.4/66) 1969. . C o n f e r e n c e on Trade and Development. Development o f P o r t s Improvement o f P o r t O p e r a t i o n s and Connected  F a c i l i t i e s P a r t One: Tne Problem o f P o r t Development " (TD/B/C. 4 / 4 2 T 7 ~ J a n u a r y 3, 1969. . Department o f Economics and S o c i a l A f f a i r s . W o rld Trade A n n u a l . . Department o f Economics and S o c i a l A f f a i r s . The Turnaround Time of. S h i p s i n P o r t . New Y o r k : U . N. , 1967. . S e c r e t a r i a t . The Development o f P o r t s ; A P r o g r e s s R e p o r t o f t h e S e c r e t a r i a t , New York: U.N., 1967 (TD/C.4/23). . Department o f Economics and S o c i a l A f f a i r s , World Trade A n n u a l . 1968. Warren, H a r r y V. and W i l k s , E.F. World Resource P r o d u c t i o n 50 Y e a r s o f Change. B.C. G e o g r a p h i c a l S e r i e s , No. 5, Vancouver: T a n t a l u s R e s e a r c h L i m i t e d , 1966. W i l s h e r , P e t e r . " P o r t s and Ore C a r r i e r s . " S t e e l Review, X X X V I I I ( A p r i l , 1965), pp. 16-19. A P P E N D I C E S A P P E N D I X I 1. B r i t i s h Columbia M i n i n g Revenue by Market, 1965-1969. 2. B r i t i s h Columbia M i n i n g Revenue by Major Product, 1965-1969. 142 90 eo 70 60 50 40 30 < _i _i o Q 20 10 o 17) z o 1965 1 9 6 6 1967 1968 1969 Copper Concentrotes 1965 1966 1967 I96B 1969 Zinc 8 Zinc Concentrate* 1965 I960 1907 1968 1 9 6 9 1965 1966 1967 1966 1969 Lead 8 Lead Molybdenum Concentrates 30 20 10 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Iron ore ond Concen t ra to r 1365 1966 1967 1966 1969 Atbe t tos Fibro m 1723 M\ IM L*J L_5LI L*J L* 1965 1966 (967 1968 1969 1965 1966 1967 1966 1969 Silver I 1 C o a l Gold Bull ion E 2 3 M i n i n g A i t o c i o h o n of Br'loh C o l u m b i a • Not Ova,table BR IT I SH COLUMBIA MIMING R E V E N U E APPENDIX BY M A J O R P R O D U C T 1965-1969 130 110 100 9 0 8 0 (/> 70 CC < _l rs 6 0 Z o — 4 0 20 10 143 0 1965 66* 67 68 69 1963 66 67 68 69 1963 66 67 68 69 I96S 66 67 68 69 I9P5 66 67 68 69 CANADA U.S.A. J A P A N U. K OTHER Min ing A n o c l a t l o n of B r l t l t h Columbia BRITISH COLUMBIA MINING REVENUE BY MARKET 1 9 6 5 - 1 9 6 9 A P P E N D I X A P P E N D I X I I SOLIDS PIPELINES 1. L i s t of some p i p e l i n a b l e m i n e r a l s . 2. Summary o f s e l e c t e d commercial, s l u r r y p i p e l i n e s . LIST OF SOME PIPELINABLE MINERALS BEING PIPELINED • L i m e s t o n e and o t h e r cement raw m a t e r i a l s e I r o n c o n c e n t r a t e • G i l s o n i t e • S a l t i n b r i n e • Phosphate r o c k • V a r i o u s m i n e r a l t a i l i n g s '• K a o l i n • Copper c o n c e n t r a t e TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY ESTABLISHED ° P o t a s h • L e a d - z i n c c o n c e n t r a t e s • S u l p h u r • L a t e r i t e ( n i c k l e ore) © P y r i t e ® Coke Source: E . J . Wasp and W.L.J. F a l l o w . 146 SUMMARY OF SELECTED COMMERCIAL SLURRY PIPELINES L o c a t i o n M a t e r i a l Length M i l e s D i a . Inches M i l l i o n Tons/Year Ohio Co a l 108 10 1.30 Utah G i l s o n i t e 72 6 0.38 England Limestone 57 10 1.70 Colombia Limestone 9 5 0.35 T r i n i d a d Limestone 6 8 0.57 C a l i f o r n i a * Limestone 17 7 2.0 South A f r i c a Gold T a i l i n g s 22 6&9 1.05 Tasmania Iro n Concentrates 53 9 2.25 A r i z o n a * * C o a l 273 18 4.8 Japan Copper T a i l i n g s 40 8 1.0 Canada*** Sulphur/Hydrocarbon 800 12-16 -*In d e s i g n phase **Under C o n s t r u c t i o n ***In p l a n n i n g phase Source: E . J . Wasp and W.L.J. Fa l l o w . A P P E N D I X I I I UNIT TRAINS Loading I n t e g r a l T r a i n a t K a i s e r ' Sparwood F a c i l i t y . Rotary Car Dumper a t Westshore T e r m i n a l s . A P P E N D I X I V 1. Cargoes over 200,000 tons loaded at B.C. P o r t s to and from F o r e i g n C o u n t r i e s 1967. 2. C o u n t r i e s Importing over 200,000 tons of a S i n g l e Commodity v i a the P o r t of Vancouver i n 1967. APPENDIX 151 Cargoes over 200,000 tons Loaded at B r i t i s h Columbia Ports to and from Foreign Countries 1967.  Port and Commodity Blubber Bay limestone Campbell River newsprint paper Chemainus lumber and timber J edway i r o n ore and cone Kitimat alumuna Marble Bay limestone Nanaimo lumber and timber pulp New Westminster lumber and timber Port Alberni lumber and timber Powell River newsprint paper Prince Rupert wheat f u e l o i l Tasu i r o n ore and concentrate Texada iro n ore and concentrate Vananda . limestone Loaded 1967 654,365 200,181 451,539 441,399 Unloaded 1967 410,050 542,528 245,274 611,530 473,632 273,496 201,594 240,055 688,928 216,255 431,829 256,533 continued Port and Commodity Loaded 1967 Unloaded 1967 Vancouver barley 528,391 wheat 3,495,612 rapeseed 202,434 logs 313,307 pulpwood 490,080 copper ore and concentrate 228,590 coal bituminous 1,159,432 phosphate rock 171,307 sulphur i n ore 890,362 salt 226,810 sand and gravel 412,688 lumber and timber 1,211,769 pulp . 343,313 fert i l i z ers 1,184,605 Victoria wheat 278,754 pulpwood 236,810 lumber and timber 480,518 Zeballos iron ore and concentrate 229,734 Source; Dominion Bureau of Statistics 54-203. 153 Countries Importing Over 200,000 Tons of a Single Commodity via the Port of Vancouver i n 1967  Region Commodity Tonnage USSR Pacific wheat 430,598 Australia sulphur 205,631 Bellingham, Washington pulpwood 294,100 India wheat 359,957 asbestos 223,121 China (Communist) wheat 978,707 Netherlands f e r t i l i z e r s 326,150 Japan barley 296,933 wheat 1,242,304 logs 291,796 copper ore & concentrate 227,090 coal bituminous 1,159,427 f e r t i l i z e r 399,094 Source: Dominion Bureau of St a t i s t i c s , Ottawa, Canada. A P P E N D I X V BRITISH COLUMBIA MINERAL PRODUCTION AND SHIPMENTS 1. B.C. M i n e r a l s — T o n s Shipped by P o r t and Commodity 1966-1969. 2. P r o d u c t i o n S e l e c t e d M i n e r a l s of .B.C., 1968 and 1969. 3. C o a l Resources of A l b e r t a and B r i t i s h Columbia by Rank and P r o v i n c e . 4. L i s t o f C o a l Operators w i t h Export C o n t r a c t s t o Japan as of A p r i l 1971. 5. Shipments of Canadian C o a l t o Japan from P a c i f i c Coast Terminals i n 1972. B. C. -MINERALS - TONS SHIPPED BY PORT AND COMMODITY I966-I969 1966 1967 1968 1969 Port Britannia Beach 83,000 127,000 184,000 261,000 Campbell River - 36,000 66,000 73,000 G i l l i e s Bay- 576,000 768,000 616,000 677,000 Hatch Point - 3,000 - -Jedway 512,000 456,000 - -New Westciinster 138,000 213,000 172,000 80,000 Port McNeill 66,000 136,000 87,000 98,000 Prince Rupert - 36,000 33,000 36,000 Tasu - 229,000 844,000 1,080,000 Vancouver 234,000 378,000 297,000 630,000 Zeballos 318,000 242,000 149,000 -1,927,000 2,624,000 2,448,000 2,935,000 Commodity Copper 138,000 276,000 289,000 376,000 Zinc 86,000 160,000 159,000 119,000 Lead 65,000 86,000 81,000 30,000 Molybdenum 10,000 10,000 14,000 . 20,000 Iron . 1,460,000' 1,889,000 1,680,000 1,792,000 Asbestos 94,000 92,000 64,000 77,000 Coal N.A. N.A. N.A. 326,000 Nickel 18,000 23,000 18,000 18,000 Other metals 56,000 88,000 143,000 177,000 1,927,000 2,624,000 2,448,000 2,935,000 Source; Price Vfaterhouse & Co., The British Columbia Mining  Industry i n 1969 Table 32. N.A. Not available. 156 APPENDIX V PRODUCTIONfSELECTED MINERALS OF B. 1968 and 1969 1968 1969 1 als Quantity Quantity Value Antimony l b . 1,159,960 820,122 $ 508,476 Bismuth lb. 207,783 62,488 288,070 Cadmium lb. 1,341,437 1,141,133 4,016,788 Copper lb. 160,993,338 167,421,925 111,596,758 Iron, concentrates tons 2,094,745 2,074,854 19,787,845 Lead lb. 231,627,618 210,072,565 33,693,539 Molybdenum lb. 19,799,793 25,512,001 46,533,644 Nickel lb. 3,317,160 2,979,130 3,396,208 Tin l b . 358,191 288,427 470,136 Zinc lb . 299,396,264 301,163,774 47,345,957 Total $ 267,637,421 Industrial minerals Asbestos tons 74,667 79,600 Barite tons 21,968 26,949 Fluxes tons 40,259 22,342 Granules tons 30,237 34,746 Gypsum & gypsite tons 246,374 280,894 Sulphur tons 320,521 349,122 Others — — — Total Fuels Coal Crude o i l Field condensate Plant condensate Natural gas to pipeline m s. Butane Propane Total Grand t o t a l tons 959,214 bbl. 22,151,353 bbl. 54,163 bbl. 960,252 c f . 224,233,203 bbl. 527,546 bbl. 400,800 852,340 25,309,036 78,147 944,111 256,223,244 417,540 327,501 $ 15,659,000 190,620 81,917 654,701 764,032 3,824,593 4,913 $ 21,179,776 6,817,155 58,176,213 180,520 263,278 27,897,585 133,613 104.800 $ 93,573,164 $ 382,390,361 Source: Department of Industrial Development Trade and Commerce, Bureau of Economics and Stat i s t i c s , The Pacific Rim: An  Evaluation of British Columbia Trade Opportunities, (Victoria: Queen's Printer, July 1 9 7 0 ) . 157 COAL RESOURCES.OF ALBERTA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA BY RANK AND PROVINCE (Thousands of Short Tons) Province Measured Indicated Inferred Total Low and Medium Volatile Bituminous Alberta Inner Foothills Luscar Formation 542,000 7,426,500 3,535,400 11,503,900 Inner Foothills Kootenay Formation 440.100 12.193.700 3.831.100 16.464.900 Alberta Total 982,100 19,620,200 7,366,500 27,968,800 B r i t i s h Columbia 6,943,000 10,775,000 40,480,100 58,198,100 Rank Total 7,925,100 30,395,200 47,846,600 86,166,900 High Volatile Bituminous Alberta Outer Foothills 6,278,600 3,043,700 9,322,300 B r i t i s h Columbia 45,600 100,400 " 172,900 318,900 Rank Total 45,600 6,379,000 3,216,600 9,641,200 Grand Total 9,192,500 42,971,500 53,593,200 105,757,200 Source: B. A. Latour,"Coal Deposits of Western and Northern Canada," . (paper given at the 22nd Canadian Conference on Coal, Vancouver, September 29-0ctober 2, 1970). aComputed tonnage i s within 20$ of true tonnage DComputed from projections of v i s i b l e data cEstimates based on assumed continuity i n areas remote from outcrops. 158 List of €oal Operators with Export Contracts to Japan as of A p r i l 1971. Company and Location Remarks Alberta Coleman Colliers Limited, Coleman, Alberta. The Canmore Mines Ltd., Canmore. Cardinal River Mines Ltd., Luscar. Mclntyre Coal Mines Limited, Grand Cache. Contracts for 13.3 million long tons over 15 years beginning i n 1970. In 1968 Canmore obtained a 10-year contract to supply 3.8 million long tons. Luscar operators of Cardinal have a contract to supply 1 million tons for 15 years. To supply 29.5 million long tons over 15 years; shipments commenced in August, 1970. Further contracts have apparently been negotiated which would increase this to 45.75 million tons. Bri t i s h Columbia Kaiser Resources Ltd., Michel-Natal. Fording Coal Limited, Fording River. Contracted to supply 75 million tons over 15 years beginning i n 1970. Delivery to start spring of 1972 to supply 3 million tons per year for 15 years. Sourcet Department of Energy Mines and Resources, September 1970, updated to A p r i l 1971 using various newspaper a r t i c l e s . 1 159 Shipments of Canadian Goal To Japan From Pacific Coast Terminals in 1972. Thousands of Loading Long Tons Port Railway Alberta Coleman Colliers Ltd. Luscar Limited Canmore Mines Mclntyre Porcupine Mines Limited a Sub-Total 1,000 1,000 380 2,000 4,380 Port Moody Neptune Terminal Neptune Terminal CP. R a i l CN.R. Port Moody CP. R a i l CN.R. B r i t i s h Columbia Kaiser Resources Ltd. 5,150 Fording Coal Co. Ltd. 3,000 Roberts Bank CP. R a i l Roberts Bank CP. R a i l Sub-Total C150 Grand Total 12,530 Source; Province of Brit i s h Columbia, "1970 Summary of Economic Activity i n Brit i s h Columbia," Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce, Economics and Statistics Branch. a This tonnage could be higher, with the increase in tonnage probably being through Prince Rupert. A P P E N D I X V I P o s s i b l e Super P o r t L o c a t i o n s , North Coast B r i t i s h Columbia. Georgia S t r a i t Showing Entrance t o Vancouver and Squamish. 

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