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The establishment of coalition governments by international accords : past examples and prospects for… MacWhirter, Isabel Mary 1972

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THE ESTABLISHMENT OF COALITION GOVERNMENTS BY INTERNATIONAL ACCORDS: PAST EXAMPLES AND PROSPECTS FOR SOUTH VIETNAM by ISABEL MACWHIRTER B.A., Mills College, California, 1970 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the Department of P o l i t i c a l Science We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA September, 1972 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of Brit ish Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of JPftQlfor<lQ.SUQJIJLQ-^ The University of Brit ish Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date fyi?j*X_J:mj .. i A b s t r a c t The e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f c o a l i t i o n governments by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s as a means t o end i n t e r n a t i o n a l i z e d c i v i l wars has n o t been s u f f i c i e n t l y a n a l y z e d t o d a t e . A t t h i s t i m e , t h i s p r o c e s s i s o f p a r t i c u l a r i m p o r t a n c e s i n c e I t has been p r o p o s e d as a mechanism t o end t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l i z e d war i n V i e t n a m and I n d o c h i n a . The p u r p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o examine w h e t h e r , i n f a c t , t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n South V i e t n a m i s a l i k e l y p o s s i b i l i t y f o r th e n e a r f u t u r e . The method used t o c o n s i d e r t h i s p r o b l e m was t o f i r s t i s o l a t e a group o f g e n e r a l f a c t o r s w h i c h appear s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e e s t a b l i s h -ment o f c o a l i t i o n governments by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s u t i l i z i n g t he case s t u d i e s o f Cyprus and L a o s . T h i s l i s t o f f a c t o r s a l s o i n c l u d e s t h o s e f a c t o r s w h i c h appear n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e s u c c e s s f u l o p e r a t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n government. Thus C h a p t e r I i s d e v o t e d t o a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h appeared p e r t i n e n t t o t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f t h e c o a l i t i o n s i n Cyprus and Laos,,and the development o f a s e t o f what the a u t h o r has termed " c o a l i t i o n c r i t e r i a . " C h a p t e r I I t h e n examines t h e p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t s s u r r o u n d i n g t h e case o f South V i e t n a m . The i n t e r n a l e n v i r o n m e n t i s d e s c r i b e d i n terms o f t h e d i v i s i o n o f f o r c e s i n So u t h V i e t n a m i n t o m a j o r s o c i o p o l i t i c a l groups and the t y p e s o f emerging r e l a t i o n s h i p s amongst t h e s e f o r c e s . The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e Vietnamese c o n c e p t o f c o a l i t i o n and accommodation a r e a l s o c o n s i d e r e d . The i n t e r -n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t i s a n a l y z e d i n terms o f the p o l i c i e s o f t h e major e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n v o l v e d i n V i e t n a m , and the e f f e c t o f t h e c h a n g i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the US and C h i n a and the US and R u s s i a . The f i n a l c h a p t e r o f t h i s s t u d y examines t h e major f a c t o r s i m p i n g -i n g on t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n South V i e t n a m i n terms o f t h e g e n e r a l f a c t o r s e s t a b l i s h e d i n C h a p t e r I as r e l e v a n t t o th e c r e a t i o n o f c o a l i t i o n governments by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s , and the p a r t i c u l a r i t i e s of t h e South Vietnamese case d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r I I . The c o n c l u s i o n o f t h e a u t h o r i s t h a t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f some f o r m o f i i c o a l i t i o n government i n So u t h V i e t n a m by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s i s a l i k e l y p o s s i b i l i t y and t h a t s u c h a c o a l i t i o n c o u l d be a s a t i s f a c t o r y , though p r o b a b l y t e m p o r a r y , s o l u t i o n f o r e n d i n g t h e armed c o n f l i c t i n I n d o c h i n a . S i g n e d i i i T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s Pages 1. C h a p t e r I , The P r e c e d e n t s : Laos and Cyprus "<:l-33 a. Cyprus 1 b. Laos 12 c. C o a l i t i o n C r i t e r i a 26 2. C h a p t e r I I , The D i v i s i o n o f F o r c e s 34-82 a. I n t e r n a l E n v i r o n m e n t 1) P r i m a r y Groups 35 2) Secondary Groups 52 3) C o a l i t i o n Concept 66 b. I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n v i r o n m e n t 1) R u s s i a 72 2) C h i n a 75 3) U n i t e d S t a t e s 77 3. C h a p t e r l l l , F a c t o r s I m p i n g i n g on t h e E s t a b l i s h m e n t and S u c c e s s f u l O p e r a t i o n o f a C o a l i t i o n Government i n South V i e t n a m 83-95 a. C o n c l u s i o n 91 4. F o o t n o t e s 96-100 5. B i b l i o g r a p h y 101-104 6. A p p e n d i x I 105-107 A p p e n d i x I I 108-110 i v L i s t o f A b b r e v i a t i o n s ARVN - Armed F o r c e s o f V i e t n a m CIA - C e n t r a l I n t e l l i g e n c e Agency o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s COSVN - C e n t r a l O f f i c e f o r So u t h V i e t n a m CVT - C o n f e d e r a t i o n V i e t n a m i e n du T r a v a i l DRV - D e m o c r a t i c R e p u b l i c o f V i e t n a m ( N o r t h Vietnam) FULRO - F r o n t U n i f i e pour l a L i b e r a t i o n des Races Opprimees GVN - Government o f V i e t n a m ( S o u t h Vietnam) ICC - I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n t r o l Commission NATO - N o r t h A t l a n t i c T r e a t y O r g a n i z a t i o n NLF - N a t i o n a l L i b e r a t i o n F r o n t NLHS - Neo Lao Hak S a t P a r t y o f Laos NSDF - N a t i o n a l S o c i a l and D e m o c r a t i c F r o n t PLAF - P e o p l e ' s L i b e r a t i o n Armed F o r c e s PRG - P r o v i s i o n a l R e v o l u t i o n a r y Government UN - U n i t e d N a t i o n s US - U n i t e d S t a t e s USSR - U n i o n o f S o v i e t S o c i a l i s t R e p u b l i c s WFP - Workers and Farmers P a r t y L i s t o f Maps an d . T a b l e s T a b l e I - S o u t h Vietnam's S o c i o p o l i t i c a l Groups Map I - A p p r o x i m a t e C o n c e n t r a t i o n o f S o u t h . V i e t n a m s ' Communal Groups Map I I - A r e a s o f V i e t Minh C o n c e n t r a t i o n - - 1954 Map I I I - P r o j e c t e d A r e a s of. NLP C o n c e n t r a t i o n i n Post-War V i e t n a m v i I n t r o d u c t i o n The e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f c o a l i t i o n governments by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s has been one method u t i l i z e d by b o t h d o m e s t i c and i n t e r n a t i o n a l powers t o b r i n g about an end t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l i z e d c i v i l w a r s . Some s t u d i e s have been done ( t h e most n o t a b l e by W i l l i a m . R i k e r ) w h i c h have f o c u s e d on t h e t h e o r y o f d o m e s t i c c o a l i t i o n f o r m a t i o n , b u t a l m o s t no a n a l y s i s e x i s t s o f t h e c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h have r e s u l t e d i n the , e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f c o a l i t i o n s by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s . A s i d e f r o m the t h e o r e t i c a l v a l u e o f s u c h an u n d e r s t a n d i n g , the q u e s t i o n o f the e s t a b l i s h m e n t . of. c o a l i t i o n governments by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y p e r t i n e n t a t t h i s t i m e i n r e -l a t i o n t o . i t s c o n s i d e r a t i o n as a p o s s i b l e mechanism to end t h e war i n V i e t n a m and I n d o c h i n a . The p o s s i b i l i t y o f e s t a b l i s h i n g a c o a l i t i o n government i n So u t h V i e t n a m as a means t o end t h e armed w a r f a r e has p r o v o k e d a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f d i s c u s s i o n and de b a t e i n r e c e n t y e a r s . Many o f the p r o p o n e n t s and opponents o f t h i s c o n c e p t o u t s i d e o f V i e t n a m have m i s u n d e r s t o o d b o t h t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e q u e s t i o n and t h e r e l e v a n c y o f such a c o n c e p t i n Vie t n a m . T h i s p a p e r w i l l a t t e m p t t o c o n s i d e r w h e t h e r , i n f a c t , t h e e s -t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n South V i e t n a m i s l i k e l y i n th e n e a r f u t u r e . I n o r d e r t o b e g i n to c o n s i d e r t h i s p r o b l e m , the a u t h o r . h a s f i r s t drawn upon t h e p a s t examples o f c o a l i t i o n governments e s t a b l i s h e d by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s o f f e r e d i n the c a s e s o f Cyprus and Laos.' I n d o i n g s o , I have a t t e m p t e d t o d e s c r i b e t h o s e ' c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h a c c o u n t e d f o r t h e v i i c h o i c e o f a c o a l i t i o n government as t h e method o f e n d i n g c i v i l s t r i f e i n b o t h c o u n t r i e s . A t t h e same t i m e , I have a t t e m p t e d t o d e f i n e t h o s e f a c t o r s w h i c h appeared to be s u p p o r t i v e o r n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f the s u c c e s s -f u l o p e r a t i o n o f t h e c o a l i t i o n s . The p u r p o s e o f s u c h an a n a l y s i s was t o i s o l a t e t h o s e f a c t o r s w h i c h appear most s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f c o a l i t i o n governments by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s , as w e l l as t h o s e f a c t o r s w h i c h w o u l d appear supp-o r t i v e o f t h e s u c c e s s f u l o p e r a t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n government. The f a c t o r s s u p p o r t i v e o f the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government, however, a r e n o t dependent upon w h e t h e r the c o a l i t i o n e s t a b l i s h e d might be s u c c e s s f u l . The f a c t o r s s u p p o r t i v e o f the o p e r a t i o n o f c o a l i t i o n s a r e more s p e c i f i c and would u n d o u b t e d l y depend upon t h e p a r t i c u l a r s o f each c a s e . A l l t h e i s o l a t e d f a c t o r s s u p p o r t i v e o f b o t h t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n o f c o a l i t i o n s have been termed " c o a l i t i o n c r i t e r i a " i n t h i s s t u d y . The i n t e n t i o n o f t h e a u t h o r i n d e v e l o p i n g s u c h c r i t e r i a was n o t t o c r e a t e a s t r i c t "model" t o be a p p l i e d a t l a r g e , however, b u t r a t h e r t o have a number o f f a c t o r s w h i c h c o u l d be a p p l i e d i n c o n s i d e r i n g t h e c a s e o f S o u t h V i e t n a m . These c r i t e r i a m i g ht h o p e f u l l y be r e l e v a n t to o t h e r c a s e s as w e l l , b u t t h e s p e c i f i c f o c u s of t h i s p a p e r i s on S o u t h V i e t n a m , and n o t on c o a l i t i o n s i n g e n e r a l . The f i r s t c h a p t e r o f t h i s s t u d y examines the / ( c o a l i t i o n s ' of" Laos and C y p r u s . The d e s c r i p t i o n o f the h i s t o r y o f each ease i s f o l l o w e d by a summary o f t h o s e f a c t o r s w h i c h i n f l u e n c e d the e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n o f t h e c o a l i t i o n . As w i l l become e v i d e n t t o t h e r e a d e r , b o t h o f t h e s e c a s e s a r e e x t r e m e l y d i f f e r e n t . One c o a l i t i o n was e s t a b l i s h e d v i i i i n a b i - p o l a r d o m e s t i c s i t u a t i o n , , w h i l e the o t h e r was a t r i - p o l a r dom-e s t i c s e t t i n g . ; The f i n a l s e c t i o n o f t h i s c h a p t e r draws upon the e x p e r -i e n c e s o f b o t h o f t h e s e c o a l i t i o n s t o d e f i n e t h o s e f a c t o r s o f t h e i n t e r n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t s w h i c h appear s a l i e n t t o t h e a c c e p t a b i l i t y o f a . c o a l i t i o n . The f o c u s o f t h i s s e c t i o n i s on h y p o t h e s i z i n g about p a r t i c u l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e f a c t o r s ( l i s t e d as " c o a l i t i o n c r i t e r i a " , . C h a p t e r I I o f t h i s s t u d y i s a d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e i n t e r n a l and i n -t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t s a f f e c t i n g . t h e c a s e o f t h e South Vietnamese c i v i l war. The c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e i n t e r n a l d i v i s i o n o f f o r c e s i s a n a l y z e d i n t h e f i r s t p a r t o f t h e c h a p t e r by i n i t i a l l y d e s c r i b i n g t h e m a j o r s o c i o -p o l i t i c a l groups i n S o u t h V i e t n a m , and t h e n by e x a m i n i n g some.of t h e r e a s o n s f o r t h e . d i s o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e s e groups.and t h e t y p e s o f r e l a t i o n -s h i p s t h a t a r e l i k e l y to emerge between some o f t h e s e groups i n t h e f u t u r e . A p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f t h e s e emerging r e l a t i o n s h i p s i s r e -l a t e d t o the Vietnamese c o n c e p t i o n o f c o a l i t i o n and accommodation, and t h e r e f o r e an a n a l y s i s o f t h i s c o n c e p t i s i n c l u d e d i n the s e c t i o n on t h e i n t e r n a l e n v i r o n m e n t . The second s e c t i o n o f C h a p t e r I I on t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t c o n s i d e r s t h e p o l i c i e s o f t h e t h r e e key e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s towards V i e t n a m and t h e a l t e r a t i o n s i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e improvement of US-China and U S - R u s s i a r e l a t i o n s . I n t h e f i n a l c h a p t e r o f t h i s s t u d y , t h e g e n e r a l f a c t o r s i s o l a t e d i n C h a p t e r I as p e r t i n e n t t o t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f c o a l i t i o n governments by i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c c o r d s , and the p a r t i c u l a r f a c t o r s r e l e v a n t t o South Vietnam's i n t e r n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l s i t u a t i o n d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p t e r I I , a r e c o n s i d e r e d t o g e t h e r i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r the e s t a b l i s h m e n t i x o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n S a i g o n appears l i k e l y . S i n c e a c o a l i t i o n government a c c e p t a b l e t o a l l p a r t i e s w i l l i n v o l v e a compromise, t h e v a r i o u s " t y p e s " o f p o s s i b l e c o a l i t i o n s a r e c o n s i d e r e d and the c o n d i t i o n s under w h i c h t h e s e m i g h t be. a c c e p t a b l e t o t h e o p p o s i n g p a r t i e s . F i n a l l y , t h e c o n c l u s i o n c o n s i d e r s t h e t h r e e q u e s t i o n s , which, must be answered i n a s a t i s f a c t o r y s e t t l e m e n t , assuming t h a t a c o a l i t i o n w o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d : t h e f a i r a l l o t m e n t of.power t o . t h e d i s p u t i n g g r o u p s , t h e a ppointment o f a n e u t r a l and f l e x i b l e l e a d e r . a t t h e head of. t h e government, and t h e manner, p r o v i d e d f o r t h e r e u n i f i c a t i o n , o f V i e t n a m . Whether t h e s e i s s u e s c o u l d be t r e a t e d s u c c e s s f u l l y i n a s e t t l e m e n t i s . t h e s p e c u l a t i v e q u e s t i o n a s k e d . i n the c o n c l u d i n g p a r a g r a p h s o f t h i s s t u d y . 1 CHAPTER I The P r e c e d e n t s : Cyprus and Laos Cyprus The compromise i n t e r n a t i o n a l agreements o f 1960 w h i c h e s t a b l i s h e d a c o a l i t i o n government i n Cyprus w i t h a Greek C y p r i o t P r e s i d e n t , a T u r k i s h C y p r i o t V i c e - P r e s i d e n t , and an e l a b o r a t e c o n s t i t u t i o n t o p r o t e c t t h e m i n o r i t y group ( T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s ) , was n o t perhaps t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n t o t h e w a r f a r e p l a g u i n g t h e s m a l l M e d i t e r r a n e a n i s l a n d , b u t i t appeared t o be t h e o n l y p o s s i b l e one a t t h e t i m e . The C y p r i o t c r i s i s had t h r e a t -ened t o d e e p l y i n v o l v e t h r e e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s , B r i t a i n (as t h e c o l o n i a l p o w e r ) , Greece, and T u r k e y . The c o n f l i c t between Greece and Turkey o v e r Cyprus w h i c h was t h e r e s u l t o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l a n t a g o n i s m formed t h r o u g h f o u r c e n t u r i e s o f c o n t e s t e d c o n t r o l o v e r t h e i s l a n d , was t h e most u r g e n t . U n t i l the Turks conquered t h e i s l a n d i n 1571, the m a j o r i t y o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n Cyprus had been Greek. Then f o r a b r i e f p e r i o d , t h e Turks had begun t o out-number t h e Greeks on t h e i s l a n d , b u t by t h e t i m e o f t h e Greek war f o r independence i n 1821, t h e Greek p o p u l a t i o n had a g a i n become t h e m a j o r i t y , m a i n t a i n i n g a r a t i o o f 80 p e r c e n t Greek t o 18 p e r c e n t T u r k -i s h t o t h e p r e s e n t day. Upon o b t a i n i n g independence i n 1821, Greece had become adamantly a t -t a c h e d t o t h e i d e a o f l i b e r a t i n g a l l Greeks from T u r k i s h r u l e — a d e s i r e embodied i n t h e t e r m " e n o s i s " o r " u n i o n w i t h G r e e c e . " C o n f l i c t o v e r Cyprus had been a v o i d e d between Greece and Turkey d u r i n g t h e B a l k a n wars and W o r l d War I because o f B r i t i s h o c c u p a t i o n o f t h e i s l a n d s t a r t i n g i n 1878. D u r i n g B r i t i s h r u l e , however, t h e Greek C y p r i o t s had c o n t i n u e d 2 to d e m o n s t r a t e and p e t i t i o n f o r t h e i r i ndependence and f o r " e n o s i s . " F o l l o w i n g W o r l d War I I , t h e s i t u a t i o n on Cyprus r a p i d l y d e t e r i o r a t e d . The endemic c o n f l i c t between t h e Greek and T u r k i s h communities had been a g g r a v a t e d by t h e f i g h t f o r independence f r o m t h e B r i t i s h w h i c h had been l e d p r i m a r i l y by t h e Greek C y p r i o t s under G e n e r a l George G r i v a s . I n 1959, B r i t a i n f i n a l l y d e c i d e d t h a t c o n t r o l o f t h e e n t i r e i s l a n d was no l o n g e r n e c e s s a r y and a f t e r f o u r y e a r s o f v i o l e n c e , l i m i t e d i n d e p e n d e n c e was g r a n t e d t o t h e C y p r i o t s . B r i t a i n ' s d e c i s i o n was a p p a r e n t l y s p u r r e d by t h e c o s t f a c t o r i n v o l v e d i n m a i n t a i n i n g 28,000 B r i t i s h t r o o p s i n Cyprus w h i l e a t t e m p t i n g t o chase t h e 200-300 g u e r r i l l a s l e a d i n g t h e ind e p e n d e n c e movement,"'" as w e l l as by t h e t h r e a t o f imminent w a r f a r e between h e r two NATO a l l i e s , G reece and T u r k e y . By 1959, however, Greece had a l s o d e c i d e d t h a t a s e t t l e m e n t on Cyprus was n e c e s s a r y . i n o r d e r t o p r o t e c t h e r own i n t e r e s t s ; Membership i n t h e NATO a l l i a n c e , and t h e consequent p r o t e c t i o n o f . B r i t a i n and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , was a v i t a l c o n c e r n t o t h e Greek government. G r e e c e , t h e r e f o r e , had d e c i d e d t h a t t h e t h r e a t o f war w i t h Turkey and t h e d a n g e r . o f e s t r a n g e -2 ment f r o m B r i t a i n and t h e U.S. " c o u l d b e s t be met by s t r a t e g i c r e t r e a t . " A t t h e same, t i m e , Turkey a l s o . c o n c l u d e d . t h a t t h e t i m e was r i p e f o r a s e t -t l e m e n t . Due t o s e r i o u s f i n a n c i a l . d i f f i c u l t i e s , T u rkey was e s p e c i a l l y 3 c o n c e r n e d w i t h e n s u r i n g h e r p o s i t i o n i n NATO and needed l i t t l e i n c e n t i v e t o seek a s e t t l e m e n t on Cyprus w h i c h a s s u r e d h e r t h a t " e n o s i s " w o u l d n o t be c a r r i e d out and t h a t s o m e ' p r o t e c t i o n t o t h e T u r k i s h community on t h e i s l a n d would be g u a r a n t e e d . The two communities on C y p r u s , w h i l e d e s i r o u s o f p e a c e , were n o t so c o n v i n c e d t h a t a compromise s e t t l e m e n t was t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n t o t h e i r 3 pro b l e m . The Greek C y p r i o t s , l e d by A r c h b i s h o p M a k a r i o s , c o n t i n u e d t o p r e s s f o r u n i o n w i t h Greece d u r i n g t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s t h a t began between t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n December, 1959. The T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s i n i t i a l l y f a v o u r e d c o n t i n u e d B r i t i s h p r e s e n c e as a " b u f f e r " a g a i n s t t h e G r e e k s , and when t h i s became u n l i k e l y , t h e y a d v o c a t e d a p a r t i t i o n o f the i s l a n d b e -tween Greece and T u r k e y . These r e s p e c t i v e p o s i t i o n s . w e r e n o t r e f l e c t e d i n t h e n e g o t i a t i o n p r o c e s s w h i c h began i n Z u r i c h , however, between t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s . The Z u r i c h m e e t i n g was a t t e n d e d o n l y by t h e P r i m e M i n -i s t e r s o f Greece and Turkey and i t was a t t h i s m e e t i n g . t h a t t h e b a s i c f o u n d a t i o n s o f t h e f i n a l s e t t l e m e n t were l a i d o u t . I t was n o t u n t i l t h e f i n a l c o n f e r e n c e i n London t h a t . a C y p r i o t d e l -e g a t i o n was i n v i t e d t o t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s and, as R o b e r t Stephens has p o i n t -ed o u t , t h i s was a mere f o r m a l i t y s i n c e . " . . . the p u r p o s e o f t h e London m e e t i n g was, i n f a c t , f o r t h e t h r e e governments who had agreed b e f o r e h a n d on t h e p l a n t o be implemented, t o . p r e s e n t t h e C y p r i o t s w i t h a f a i t a c c o m p l i w h i c h they w o u l d be f o r c e d t o a c c e p t whether t h e y l i k e d i t o r n o t . " ^ A r c h -b i s h o p M a k a r i o s o f C y p r u s , when f a c e d w i t h t h e d e c i s i o n t o a c c e p t t h e a g r e e -ments i n , t o t o and r e s t o r e peace t o t h e i s l a n d as w e l l as g a i n i n d e p e n d e n c e , o r t o r e j e c t t h e agreements and s u b j e c t Cyprus t o more s u f f e r i n g , chose w i t h g r e a t r e s e r v a t i o n , . t o a c c e p t . The r e a c t i o n o f b o t h the Greek and T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s t o t h e s e t t l e -ment and t h e r e s u l t a n t c o a l i t i o n government was n e g a t i v e f r o m t h e b e g i n -n i n g . The T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s , however, were much more s a t i s f i e d t h a n t h e Greek C y p r i o t s w i t h t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s e t t l e m e n t s i n c e t h e y were d e f i n -i t e l y w e i g h t e d i n f a v o u r o f T u r k i s h i n t e r e s t s . A t the same t i m e , t h e T u r k i s h community d i d n o t b e l i e v e t h a t the Greek C y p r i o t s w o u l d p e r m a n e n t l y 4 a c c e p t t h e Z u r i c h - L o n d o n Agreements o r t r y t o implement t h e i r r i g h t s as o u t l i n e d by t h e . c o n s t i t u t i o n . These r i g h t s i n c l u d e d t h e r i g h t t o e l e c t t h e V i c e - P r e s i d e n t and t h e t h r e e c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r s ( o u t o f t e n ) , th e r i g h t t o 30% o f the p o s i t i o n s i n p u b l i c s e r v i c e , t h e p o l i c e , and t h e House o f R e p r e s e n t a t i v e s , and 40% of t h e Army. The c o n s t i t u t i o n a l s o p r o v i d e d f o r t h e T u r k i s h V i c e - P r e s i d e n t t o h o l d v e t o powers on f o r e i g n a f f a i r s , d e f e n s e , s e c u r i t y , and on some f i n a n c i a l q u e s t i o n s . The V i c e -P r e s i d e n t , however, had no r i g h t o f s u c c e s s i o n t o t h e P r e s i d e n c y n o r c o u l d he d e l e g a t e a u t h o r i t y i n the absence o f the P r e s i d e n t . The Greek C y p r i o t community's n e g a t i v i s m towards t h e c o a l i t i o n s e t -t l e m e n t was b a s e d on c r i t i c i s m o f the s a f e g u a r d s made f o r T u r k i s h i n t e r e s t s w h i c h t h e Greek C y p r i o t s f e l t e s t a b l i s h e d a " p r i v i l e g e d p o s i t i o n " f o r t h e T u r k i s h community. The Greek C y p r i o t s were f u r t h e r f r u s t r a t e d w i t h t h e s e t t l e m e n t b e c a u s e i t a l l o w e d f o r n e i t h e r a means to change t h e b a s i c p r o v i s i o n s o f t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n p r o t e c t i n g t h e p o l i t i c a l r i g h t s . o f the T u r k i s h m i n o r i t y , n o r a p l e b i s c i t e on t h e f u t u r e f a t e o f t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n . The m a j o r d i s p u t e s between t h e Greek and T u r k i s h communities were o v e r f o u r a r e a s : 1) t a x l e g i s l a t i o n , , 2) t h e r e q u i r e d 70-30 r a t i o o f Greeks i n p u b l i c s e r v i c e s , e t c . , 3) t h e s e p a r a t e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r Greek and T u r k i s h communities i n f i v e m a j o r towns, and 4) t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e Greek (60%) and T u r k i s h (40%) u n i t s i n t h e army. Both. P r e s i d e n t M a k a r i o s and V i c e - P r e s i d e n t Kucuk were t i e d by demands f r o m t h e i r r e -s p e c t i v e communities r e g a r d i n g t h e s e i s s u e s and each s i d e c o n t i n u e d t o become more p o l a r i z e d as a t t e m p t s t o implement t h e p r o v i s i o n s o f t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n were made; The c o a l i t i o n government i n Cyprus was o p e r a t i v e f o r o n l y t h r e e y e a r s , 5 f r o m 1960-1963 and c o o p e r a t i o n between the two groups composing t h e c o a l i t i o n n e v e r r e a l l y o c c u r e d . L a c k o f c o o p e r a t i o n was a m a j o r cause o f t h e f a i l u r e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o S t a n l e y K y r i a k i d e s i n h i s book on C y p r u s , "... i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t the u n i q u e and p o w e r f u l p o s i -t i o n s a s c r i b e d t o t h e P r e s i d e n t and V i c e P r e s i d e n t a l i k e i m p l y t h a t t h e f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e E x e c u t i v e b r a n c h depends on t h e a b s o l u t e c o o p e r a t i o n o f t h e l e a d e r s o f t h e two communities.""' Y e t f o r a number o f r e a s o n s , M a k a r i o s and Kucuk p r o v e d u n a b l e t o f u n c t i o n u n d e r t h e p r o v i s i o n s o f the 1960 c o n s t i t u t i o n . K y r i a k i d e s b e l i e v e s t h a t t h i s i n a b i l i t y was t h e r e s u l t o f s e v e r a l f a c t o r s : t h e n a t u r e o f bi-communal Cyprus and t h e p e r s i s t e n c e o f the " e n o s i s " movement; t h e absence.of s e r i o u s a t t e m p t s by the B r i t i s h C o l o n -i a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t o promote g e n u i n e s e l f - g o v e r n m e n t and bi-communal c o o p e r a t i o n ; t h e deep entrenchment o f e x t e r n a l i n t e r e s t s ( B r i t a i n , . G r e e c e , and T u r k e y ) ; and t h e u n w i l l i n g n e s s . o f t h e Greek, and T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s t o f u n c t i o n w i t h i n t h e 1960 c o n s t i t u t i o n a l framework. P e r h a p s t h e most im -p o r t a n t o f a n y . o f t h e f a c t o r s . w a s t h e Greek C y p r i o t r e s e n t m e n t o f t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n because i t d i d n o t r e f l e c t t h e a c t u a l c o m p o s i t i o n o f C y p r i o t s o c i e t y . The c o n s t i t u t i o n , i n f a c t , d i d n o t h i n g towards s o l v i n g t h e d i f -f e r e n c e s o f the two communities and i n t h i s s e n s e a c t u a l l y d i s c o u r a g e d any k i n d o f communal c o o p e r a t i o n . The f a i l u r e o f t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n and t h e c o a l i t i o n government i n Cyprus became e v i d e n c e i n December of 1963 when v i o l e n c e a g a i n b r o k e o u t on t h e i s l a n d o v e r t h e p r o p o s e d s e r i e s o f c o n s t i t u t i o n a l changes a d v o c a t e d by P r e s i d e n t M a k a r i o s and opposed by t h e T u r k i s h community. The r e n e w a l o f the Cyprus c o n f l i c t b r o u g h t Greece and Turkey a g a i n n e a r t h e b r i n k o f 6 war . B o t h ' t h e U . S . and B r i t a i n became immediate ly i n v o l v e d i n t r y i n g to f i n d a s e t t l e m e n t f o r the c o n f l i c t , p r i m a r i l y because they wanted to a v e r t war between the NATO p a r t n e r s . . But i t was not u n t i l a U n i t e d Nat ions peace, keeping f o r c e a r r i v e d i n March of 1964 t h a t peace was r e s t o r e d on the i s l a n d . Re -es tab l i shment of the c o a l i t i o n government s i n c e 1964 has not occured and the Greek C y p r i o t s now c o n s i d e r the Z u r i c h - L o n d o n agreements as temporary and propose i n s t e a d a s e t t l e m e n t which would a l l o w them f u l l p o l i t i c a l c o n t r o l o f ' t h e i s l a n d , i . e . m a j o r i t y r u l e . The T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s a l s o d e s i r e a new s e t t l e m e n t , one which would c rea te some s o r t of f e d e r a -t i o n on Cyprus , e s s e n t i a l l y meaning p a r t i t i o n , of t h e . i s l a n d . I n t e r n a t i o n a l p r e s s u r e f o r the r e - e s t a b l i s h m e n t of the c o a l i t i o n government has not been s t r o n g , l a r g e l y because the c o a l i t i o n government appears, to have l i t t l e chance, o f success.. S ince the p o s i t i o n of the U . S . and B r i t a i n i s one based .on the d e s i r e . t o prevent war between the two NATO a l l i e s , they are both amenable to any p l a n agreed upon by Greece and Turkey. The U . S . had suggested a compromise s o l u t i o n (the Acheson. p l a n ) which was based on " e n o s i s " and consequent compensation to T u r k e y , 7 but the Greek C y p r i o t s ' r e j e c t e d t h i s p l a n s i n c e i t a l l o w e d f o r a T u r k i s h m i l -i t a r y presence on the i s l a n d . The S o v i e t Union has a l s o been i n t e r e s t e d i n the f a t e of Cyprus but has a l t e r e d i t s p o s i t i o n from pro-Greek C y p r i o t p r i o r to 1965 to p r o - T u r k i s h . C y p r i o t . The U . S . S . R would n a t u r a l l y l i k e to see a weakening o f the NATO a l l i a n c e , b u t , e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e the t a k e -over of the m i l i t a r y j u n t a i n Greece i n 1967, the S o v i e t y p o l i c y has been to oppose " e n o s i s " s i n c e u n i o n of Cyprus w i t h Greece would f o r c e AKEL, the communist p a r t y of Cyprus , underground, ' as w e l l as encourage more 7 e x t e n s i v e NATO i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h e a f f a i r s o f Cyprus. Summary From t h e case s t u d y o f t h e Cyprus c o a l i t i o n government, i t i s p o s s i b l e t o i s o l a t e a c o m b i n a t i o n o f factors w h i c h were s u p p o r t i v e o r n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n . These f a c o r s t e n d t o f a l l i n t o t h r e e m a j o r c a t e g o r i e s — t h o s e r e l a t i n g t o t h e r e l a t i o n s o f the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n w o r l d p o l i t i c s and t h e i r , g o a l s and p o l i c i e s i n C y p r u s , t h o s e w h i c h depended upon t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i n t e r n a l g r o u p s , and t h o s e w h i c h depended upon t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s e t -tlement.. I n t he f i r s t . c a t e g o r y , t h e . f a c t o r most s u p p o r t i v e of.a.compromise s e t -t l e m e n t i n Cyprus was t h e me m b e r s h i p . i n t h e NATO a l l i a n c e . o f a l l e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n v o l v e d . B r i t a i n w a s . g r e a t l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h . p r e s e r v i n g . t h e s t a -b i l i t y o f t h e . a l l i a n c e s i n c e NATO b a s e s i n Greece and C y p r u s . p l a y e d a v i t a l r o l e i n the NATO d e f e n s e system. A t t h e same.time, n e i t h e r Greece n o r Turkey c o u l d a f f o r d ' t o f o r f e i t t h e i r p o s i t i o n i n t h e a l l i a n c e o v e r t h e Cyprus d i s p u t e . The f a c t t h a t a l l t h r e e e x t e r n a l s t a t e s d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e Cyprus d i s p u t e were, t h u s , a l l a l l i e s i n what t h e y each c o n s i d e r e d t o be a v i t a l a l l i a n c e was v e r y , s i g n i f i c a n t i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e outcome o f t h e s e t t l e m e n t w h i c h r e s u l t e d i n a c o a l i t i o n government o f Greek and T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s . S t a n l e y K y r i a k i d e s , . i n f a c t , m a i n t a i n s t h a t , the d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e ' g u a r a n t e e s ' a l l o t e d t o t h e T u r k i s h C y p r i o t community r e v e a l d r a m a t i c a l l y t h e i m p o r t a n t ' r o l e o f Turkey i n t h e Wes t e r n A l l i a n c e and t h e E a s t e r n M e d i t -e r r a n e a n . The c o n s t i t u t i o n a l d i s e q u i l i b r i u m i n Cyprus r e f l e c t e d the.power c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f Greece and Turkey g w i t h i n NATO and n o t t h e bi-communal s t r u c t u r e o f C y p r u s . The second m a j o r f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n was l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e d by t h e t i e s o f t h e . e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s t h r o u g h t h e NATO a l l i a n c e 8 b u t was a l s o the r e s u l t o f s e l f - i n t e r e s t on t h e p a r t o f t h e t h r e e o u t -s i d e powers. Both p a r t i e s . w e r e i n t e r e s t e d i n . a v o i d i n g a.war and i n making c e r t a i n t h a t t h e o p p o s i n g p a r t i e s ? i n t e r e s t s : d i d . n o t p r e d o m i n a t e . B r i t a i n o r i g i n a l l y . h a d demanded one hundred and twenty s q u a r e m i l e s o f t e r r i t o r y on Cyprus f o r base a r e a s b u t f i n a l l y s e t t l e d f o r n i n e t y n i n e s q u a r e m i l e s b e c a u s e o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e t o h e r o f r e a c h i n g a s e t t l e m e n t . Turkey was a l s o c o n c e r n e d . w i t h s t r a t e g i c . c o n s i d e r a t i o n s as w e l l as h e r c u l t u r a l . a n d e m o t i o n a l t i e s t o Cyprus because, t h e i s l a n d w a s . o n l y a s h o r t d i s t a n c e from h e r s o u t h e r n s h o r e l i n e . Greece e q u a l l y r e a l i z e d t h a t a war w i t h Turkey, might r e s u l t i n d i s a s t r o u s consequences.. Thus, t h e d e s i r e t o r e a c h a compromise.agreement w a s . s t r o n g f o r a l l t h r e e m a j o r e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s caught a t t h e . c r o s s r o a d s o f expanded w a r f a r e o r p e a c e . The c h o i c e . o f peace r a t h e r . t h a n war meant t h a t Greece and Turkey had t o . s e t t l e f o r l e s s t h a n a t o t a l , v i c t o r y f o r t h e i r a l l i e s , a t h i r d i m p o r t a n t e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e a c c e p t a n c e o f a c o a l i t i o n g o v e r n m e n t . i n C y p r u s . Acceptance, o f t h i s r e a l i t y was much more d i f f i c u l t f o r Greece t h a n f o r Turkey s i n c e n o t o n l y h e r g o a l s , b u t a l s o , t h o s e o f t h e m a j o r i t y p o p u l a t i o n on Cyprus ( t h e Greek C y p r i o t s ) , were b a s e d on t h e r e t u r n o f t h e i s l a n d t o Greek c o n t r o l . A f o u r t h e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f a compromise s e t t l e m e n t i n Cyprus was t h e s u p p o r t , o f f e r e d . b y t h e s t r o n g e r ( i n r e g a r d s t o t h e NATO a l l i a n c e ) e x t e r n a l p a r t y , T u r k e y , t o t h e weaker i n t e r n a l p a r t y , t h e T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s . . The s u p p o r t o f Turkey tended, t o b a l a n c e - t h e , Greek s u p p o r t o f the Greek C y p r i o t m a j o r i t y and thus h e l p e d t o r e i n f o r c e the p o l i t i c a l demands.of the T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s . B r i t a i n ' s d i r e c t o u t s i d e c o n t r o l o f C y p r u s . a s - a c o l o n y was t h e f i n a l 9 f a c t o r dependent upon e x t e r n a l p o l i c i e s which.was s u p p o r t i v e o f a c o a l i t i o n government. The immediate c o n f l i c t on t h e i s l a n d p r i o r t o t h e 1960 s e t t l e -ment had been a s t r u g g l e f o r i n d e p e n d e n c e , and B r i t a i n a l o n e had been i n a p o s i t i o n t o g r a n t t h i s independence t o the C y p r i o t s . S i n c e B r i t a i n ' s c h i e f c o n c e r n a t t h e time o f t h e Z u r i c h and London agreements was. t o p r e -v e n t a war between h e r two NATO a l l i e s o v e r t h e i s l a n d , t h e framework o f independence o f f e r e d t o t h e C y p r i o t s was a compromise s o l u t i o n o b v i o u s l y d e s i g n e d f o r the b e n e f i t o f Greece and T u r k e y , and n o t e s p e c i a l l y f o r t h e C y p r i o t s . S i n c e o n l y by a c c e p t i n g t h e o v e r a l l s e t t l e m e n t c o u l d t h e C y p r i o t s g a i n t h e i r i n d e p e n d e n c e , M a k a r i o s was b a c k e d i n t o a c o r n e r f r o m w h i c h t h e r e was n o t e x i t i n 1960. The main f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f a . c o a l i t i o n government i n t h e second c a t e g o r y , t h e . n a t u r e o f t h e i n t e r n a l g r o u p s , was t h e e t h n i c r a t h e r t h a n p o l i t i c a l d i v i s i o n o f t h e two d i s p u t i n g , communities i n C y p r u s . E t h n i c d i v i s i o n , ; o f c o u r s e , meant t h a t membership of t h e groups was s t a b l e and e a s i l y d e t e r m i n e d . I t a l s o meant t h a t t h e t e c h n i c a l i t i e s o f a s e t t l e m e n t had t o c o n c e r n o n l y t h e p r o p o r t i o n of c o n t r o l a l l o t t e d t o each g r o u p . r a t h e r t h a n i d e o l o g i c a l d i f f e r e n c e s . T h i s a l l o t m e n t was no easy t a s k s i n c e any arrangement w h i c h went, beyond t h e 80-18% r a t i o o f Greeks t o T u r k s was c o n s i d e r e d u n f a i r by t h e G r e e k s , b u t i t was a t l e a s t s u p p o r t e d by a h i s t -o r y o f some c o o p e r a t i o n , even i f l i m i t e d , between, t h e two c o m m u n i t i e s . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e e t h n i c d i v i s i o n o f t h e groups i n Cyprus l a t e r p r o v e d t o be a n o n - s u p p o r t i v e f a c t o r as w e l l . A . s e c o n d . i n t e r n a l f a c t o r , s u p p o r t i v e o f a c o a l i t i o n i n Cyprus was t h e n a t u r e o f t h e t e r r i t o r i a l groupment o f the two communities.. Though c e r t a i n " T u r k i s h " and "Greek" areas, had been e s t a b l i s h e d on t h e i s l a n d , t h e y were 10 n o t t h e r e s u l t o f t e r r i t o r i a l b a t t l e s among t h e i n t e r n a l p a r t i e s . C e r t a i n a r e a s had, over, t i m e , become c o n c e n t r a t e d w i t h e i t h e r T u r k i s h o r Greek C y p r i o t s . T h i s tendency had been s t r o n g l y r e i n f o r c e d i n t h e s p r i n g o f 1959 when t h e T u r k i s h community i n i t i a t e d a campaign t o s e l l t h e i r l a n d i n o v e r w h e l m i n g l y Greek a r e a s and t o p u r c h a s e l a n d i n T u r k i s h a r e a s . T h i s d i v i s i o n o f a r e a s , however, had n o t been t h e s o u r c e o f a p h y s i c a l d i s p u t e between t h e two c o m m u n i t i e s . The f a c t t h a t t h e f i g h t p r i o r t o t h e s e t t l e -ment had been between t h e C y p r i o t s and the B r i t i s h and n o t between t h e o p p o s i n g d o m e s t i c groups f u r t h e r de-emphasized any t e r r i t o r i a l c o n t e s t be-tween t h e C y p r i o t c o m m u n i t i e s . I n s p i t e o f t h e above f a c t o r s s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n C y p r u s , t h e n o n - s u p p o r t i v e f a c t o r s ( i n c l u d i n g the n a t u r e o f t h e s e t t l e m e n t ) e v e n t u a l l y p r o v e d more c r u c i a l i n d e t e r -m i n i n g t h e d e s t i n y o f t h e government. I n C a t e g o r y . I , membership i n t h e NATO a l l i a n c e and a d e s i r e t o r e a c h a compromise s e t t l e m e n t and p r e v e n t w a r f a r e , were s e e n t o b e . f a c t o r s s u p p o r t i v e o f a c o a l i t i o n i n C y p r u s . On t h e o t h e r hand, the c o n c e r n s o f t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s t o r e a c h a c c o r d among t h e m s e l v e s was a more p r e s s i n g demand t h a n p r o v i d i n g a s e t t l e m e n t w h i c h w o u l d be vie w e d p o s i t i v e l y by t h e m a j o r i t y o f the C y p r i o t p o p u l a -t i o n . F o r c i n g t h e s e t t l e m e n t on M a k a r i o s o n l y encouraged the b i t t e r a n t a g o n i s m o f both, communities towards each o t h e r and made t h e s u c c e s s o f t h e c o a l i t i o n u n l i k e l y f r o m t h e s t a r t . A s e c o n d e x t e r n a l f a c t o r w h i c h was n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f the c o a l i t i o n i n Cyprus was t h e c o n t i n u e d n e g a t i v e i n t e r v e n t i o n o f the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n t h e i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s o f C y p r u s . Greece and Turkey were b o t h a l l o w e d t o keep m i l i t a r y c o n t i n g e n t s o n . t h e i s l a n d as p a r t o f an e f f o r t t o d e t e r a l t e r a t i o n o f t h e p r o v i s i o n s o f t h e C y p r i o t c o n s t i t u t i o n . B o t h Greece 11 and T u r k e y , however, used t h e s e c o n t i n g e n t s t o s u p p o r t a c l a n d e s t i n e arms b u i l d - u p among the underground f o r c e s o f the two C y p r i o t c o m m u n i t i e s . Open h o s t i l i t i e s f i n a l l y b r o k e o u t i n December 1963; the T u r k i s h army c o n t i n g e n t a c t u a l l y t o o k p o s i t i o n s i n s e v e r a l a r e a s around N i c o s i a , and T u r k i s h j e t s f r o m t h e m a i n l a n d swept o v e r t h e c a p i t a l c i t y . The Greek army c o n t i n g e n t t h e n a l s o t o o k up p o s i t i o n s t o c o u n t e r a p o s s i b l e T u r k i s h i n v a s i o n and a c t u a l war was p r e v e n t e d o n l y t h r o u g h B r i t i s h and U.N. i n t e r v e n t i o n . Y e t when t h e T u r k i s h C y p r i o t m i n i s t e r s l e f t t h e c a b i n e t d u r i n g the o u t b r e a k o f h o s t i l i t i e s , t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s d i d n o t h i n g t o e n s u r e t h e i r c o n t i n u e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e government though t h e y s t i l l i n s i s t e d t h a t t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n r e m a i n unchanged. Thus a l a c k o f p o s i t i v e and a c t i v e sup-p o r t o f t h e p r o v i s i o n s o f t h e s e t t l e m e n t i n Cyprus on t h e p a r t . o f t h e o u t -s i d e p a r t i e s was a t h i r d e x t e r n a l f a c t o r n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f the. c o a l i t i o n . The e t h n i c d i v i s i o n of t h e i n t e r n a l g r o u p s , as i n d i c a t e d e a r l i e r , was the major n o n - s u p p o r t i v e . f a c t o r i n C a t e g o r y I I , t h e n a t u r e o f i n t e r n a l g r o u p s . T h e . d i v i s i o n o f i n t e r e s t s , c u l t u r a l t r a i t s , and r e l i g i o n s between th e Greek and T u r k i s h communities had l o n g been a d i v i s i v e f o r c e i n C y p r i o t s o c i e t y . The h i s t o r i c a l a n t a g o n i s m of. t h e two groups was n o t i m p r o v e d under B r i t i s h o c c u p a t i o n or by t h e f i g h t f o r i n d e p e n d e n c e . Overcoming th e d i f f i c u l t i e s p r e s e n t e d by s u c h l o n g - t e r m , a n t a g o n i s m was a n e a r im-p o s s i b l e t a s k e x p e c t e d o f t h e Cyprus s e t t l e m e n t . B u t t h e r e a l f a c t o r p r e -v e n t i n g c o o p e r a t i o n between t h e two communities was n o t so much t h e i r c u l -t u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s as t h e i m b a l a n c e between t h e Greeks and t h e T u r k s . I f t h e e t h n i c d i v i s i o n had n o t been so u n e q u a l , many o f t h e p roblems f a c i n g t h e c o a l i t i o n c o u l d have been.overcome. F i n a l l y , t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s e t t l e m e n t i t s e l f ( C a t e g o r y I I I ) was 12 l a r g e l y a f a c t o r n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e Cyprus c o a l i t i o n . W h i l e t h e s e t t l e m e n t r e p r e s e n t e d a compromise.of s o r t s , i t s b a s i c p r o v i s i o n s were u n a c c e p t a b l e t o t h e m a j o r i t y o f the p o p u l a t i o n on the i s l a n d . The un-a c c e p t a b i l i t y was c h i e f l y due t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e p r o v i s i o n s were n o t i n a c c o r d w i t h s o c i a l r e a l i t y on.the i s l a n d — t h e e i g h t y p e r c e n t Greek d o m i n a t i o n . v e r s u s e i g h t e e n p e r c e n t T u r k i s h . S e c o n d l y , t h e c o n s t i t u t i o n tended t o r e i n f o r c e c o m m u n a l . d i s t i n c t i o n s by i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z i n g . s e p a r a t e e l e c t i v e and t e c h n i c a l p r o c e d u r e s f o r each community as w e l l as by e s t -a b l i s h i n g s e p a r a t e l i v i n g a r e a s . These r i g i d r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e con-s t i t u t i o n were a s e r i o u s h a n d i c a p t o any a t t e m p t a t accommodating, d i f f e r -e n t i n t e r e s t s i n t h e c o a l i t i o n government. The f a c t t h a t t h e c o n s t i t u -t i o n was u n a l t e r a b l e o n l y h e l p e d t o i n c r e a s e h o s t i l i t i e s and d e c r e a s e t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e government t o work out i t s own s o l u t i o n s t o some o f t h e problems c o n f r o n t i n g t h e two l e a d e r s and the c a b i n e t . I t has been e v i d e n t s i n c e 1964 t h a t t h e c o a l i t i o n on Cyprus i s no l o n g e r c o n s i d e r e d a v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e by e i t h e r t h e C y p r i o t s o r t h e e x t e r n a l powers i n v o l v e d i n t h e i s l a n d ' s a f f a i r s . I n i t i a l l y , o n l y t h e T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s had any.hopes t h a t t h e c o a l i t i o n government w o u l d be a permanent measure and even t h e s e hopes were q u a l i f i e d by a more w i d e - . s p r e a d p e s s i m i s m as t o t h e i n t e n t i o n s o f t h e Greek C y p r i o t s . The Greek C y p r i o t s n e v e r a c c e p t e d t h e b a s i c , s t r u c t u r e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n government and, s i n c e 1963, have c o n s i d e r e d i t s f u n c t i o n t o be m e r e l y a s t o p - g a p m e a s u r e : u n t i l a n o t h e r , more a c c e p t a b l e s e t t l e m e n t can be a r r a n g e d . T h i s s e t t l e m e n t , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , has y e t t o be f o u n d . Laos T h e k i n g d o m o f L a o s , l i k e . t h e r e s t o f I n d o c h i n a , was t o r n by i n t e r n a l 13 c o n f l i c t p r i o r t o t h e Geneva A c c o r d s o f 1954. The two combatants were t h e R o y a l Lao Government (RLG) and the. P a t h e t Lao. L a r g e l y t h r o u g h t h e gu i d a n c e and a i d o f t h e V i e t Minh f o r c e s , , t h e r e v o l u t i o n a r y Lao f o r c e s ( P a t h e t Lao) by 1954 had been a b l e t o s e c u r e a s t r o n g m i l i t a r y f o o t h o l d i n L a o s , p r i m a r i l y . i n t he p r o v i n c e s o f . S a m N e u a and Phong S a l y . When the s e t t l e m e n t a t Geneva, was r e a c h e d , . t h e RLG had conceded t o t h e s i t u a -t i o n i n t h e s e two p r o v i n c e s i n a d e c l a r a t i o n w h i c h l a i d t h e f o u n d a t i o n f o r a. c o a l i t i o n government, o f a l l d i s p u t i n g L a o t i a n f o r c e s . The d e c l a r a -t i o n s t a t e d t h a t t h e RLG w o u l d : ... p r o m u l g a t e measures t o p r o v i d e f o r s p e c i a l r e p r e s e n t -a t i o n i n t h e R o y a l A d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f t h e p r o v i n c e s o f Phong S a l y and Sam N e u a . d u r i n g t h e . i n t e r v a l between t h e c e s s a t i o n o f h o s t i l i t i e s and t h e g e n e r a l e l e c t i o n s o f t h e i n t e r e s t s o f n a t i o n a l s o f Laos who d i d n o t s u p p o r t t h e R o y a l f o r c e s d u r i n g h o s t i l i t i e s . 9 The i n t e n d e d accommodation between t h e P a t h e t Lao and t h e RLG f o l l o w i n g the s i g n i n g o f t h e Geneva A c c o r d s d i d n o t t a k e p l a c e i m m e d i a t e l y how-e v e r , p r o b a b l y b e c a u s e , as R i c h a r d B u t w e l l s u g g e s t s , t h e P a t h e t Lao w i s h e d t o "put down f i r m r o o t s " i n the two p r o v i n c e s t h e y c o n t r o l l e d . " ^ The a c t u a l p r o c e s s o f r e c o n c i l i a t i o n o f d i s p u t i n g f o r c e s i n Laos began i n 1956. A c c o r d i n g t o Do n a l d K i r k i n h i s r e c e n t s t u d y o f I n d o c h i n a , t h e RLG and the P a t h e t Lao m i g h t never, had, r e a c h e d an. u n d e r s t a n d i n g ."had i t n o t been f o r t h e p e r s i s t e n t b e l i e f among Chinese,. R u s s i a n , and V i e t -namese Communist l e a d e r s t h a t somehow th e y c o u l d p e r s u a d e Souphanouvong's opponents t o rem a i n ' n e u t r a l b u t anti-western'."'''"'' A t t h e same t i m e , i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e P a t h e t Lao l e a d e r s d e s i r e d t o g a i n a p o l i t i c a l f o o t -h o l d i n the N a t i o n a l government. F o r t h i s p u r p o s e , t h e P a t h e t Lao had formed a p o l i t i c a l p a r t y , t h e Neo Lao Hak S a t (NLHS), and had begun t a l k s w i t h P r i n c e Souvanna Phouma who was h e a d i n g the RLG i n A u g u s t , 1956. The 14 e v e n t u a l outcome o f the n e g o t i a t i o n s was t h e Souvanna Phouma a g r e e d t o g u a r a n t e e t h e n e u t r a l i t y o f h i s government, t h e r i g h t o f t h e NLHS.to a c t as a p o l i t i c a l p a r t y , and t h e i r r i g h t o f r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n . V i e n t i a n e , i n r e t u r n , f o r t h e s u r r e n d e r o f . c o n t r o l o v e r t h e two p r o v i n c e s and t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e P a t h e t Lao u n i t s i n t h e R o y a l armed f o r c e s . The f i r s t c o a l i t i o n government i n Laos was thus formed by Lao i n -i t i a t i v e s i n . 1957, i n s p i t e o f a n t i - c o a l i t i o n p r e s s u r e from U.S. ambas-12 s a d o r Graham.Parsons. The s u c c e s s f u l e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f t h i s f i r s t c o -a l i t i o n o f r i g h t i s t , n e u t r a l i s t , and l e f t i s t f o r c e s a t t e s t e d t o t h e s k i l l a t compromise o f Souvanna Phouma. Not o n l y had he s e c u r e d t h e p a r t i c i -p a t i o n , o f two P a t h e t Lao l e a d e r s i n t h e c a b i n e t a t V i e n t i a n e ( P r i n c e Souphanouvong and Phoumi V o n g v i c h i t ) , he a l s o had been a b l e t o f o r m a l l y t u r n o v e r the p r o v i n c e s o f Sam. Neua and Phong S a l y t o t h e a u t h o r i t y o f t h e K i n g (though, t h e P a t h e t Lao r e t a i n e d a. good d e a l o f c o n t r o l i n the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f t h e s e p r o v i n c e s ) . F u r t h e r m o r e , i n F e b r u a r y , 1958, the 1,500 P a t h e t Lao s o l d i e r s w h i c h were t o have j o i n e d t h e R o y a l Army, had been f o r m a l l y , " i n t e g r a t e d " i n a ceremony a t t h e P l a i n o f J a r s , though i n a c t u a l i t y , i n t e g r a t i o n . n e v e r t o o k p l a c e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e s p i r i t , o f compromise i n V i e n t i a n e i n t h i s p e r i o d p r i o r t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s e t t l e m e n t o f 1962, l a s t e d o n l y u n t i l t h e s p e c i a l e l e c t i o n s f o r the N a t i o n a l Assembly h e l d on May 4, 1958. Much t o the s u r p r i s e o f a l l c o n c e r n e d , and. t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r dismay o f t h e U.S., t h e Neo Lao Hak S a t and l e f t i s t p a r t i e s w o n . t h i r t e e n out o f t h e twenty-one newly c o n t e s t e d . s e a t s i n t h e f i f t y - n i n e member Assembly. P r i n c e Souphanou-13 vong o f the P a t h e t Lao r e c e i v e d 37,389 v o t e s — more t h a n any o t h e r c a n d i -d a t e i n the c o u n t r y . The r i g h t i s t f a c t i o n o f the RLG c h a r g e d c h e a t i n g , b u t , as Donald K i r k p o i n t s o u t , "The weakness o f the a n t i - c o m m u n i s t c a n d i d a t e s 15 s u g g e s t e d t h a t . t h e l e f t i s t s had d e s e r v e d w h a t e v e r t h e y had won." T h i s weakness was d u e . l a r g e l y to an over-abundance of t h e r i g h t i s t c a n d i d a t e s — a t o t a l o f e i g h t y - f i v e f o r t h e twenty-one s e a t s — w h i c h s p l i t t h e r i g h t -i s t v o t e s , l e a v i n g t h e l e f t i s t c a n d i d a t e s w i t h a m a j o r i t y o f t h e s e a t s . The outcome o f t h e s e e l e c t i o n s was c o n s i d e r e d u n a c c e p t a b l e by t h e U.S. w h i c h a b r u p t l y suspended i t s a i d i n Laos on t h e grounds t h a t i t had been " m i s u s e d . " The A m e r i c a n CIA f u r t h e r encouraged t h e p l o t t i n g o f r i g h t - w i n g e l ements i n t h e government a f t e r a v o t e o f n o - c o n f i d e n c e on J u l y 22, 1958 f o r Souvanna's g o v e r n m e n t . ^ The P r i m e M i n i s t e r who r e p l a c e d Souvanna, P h o u i S a n a n i k o n e , was a r i g h t i s t , and he i m m e d i a t e l y e x c l u d e d the two P a t h e t Lao l e a d e r s f r o m t h e C a b i n e t upon assuming o f f i c e , m a r k i n g t h e end o f t h e f i r s t c o a l i t i o n government i n L a o s . R i c h a r d B u t w e l l m a i n t a i n s t h a t t h i s f a i l u r e . w a s " p r i m a r i l y t h e f a u l t o f t h e a n t i - c o m m u n i s t s and 16 t h e i r o v e r l y eager A m e r i c a n a l l y . " A coup by C a p t a i n Kong Le i n August o f 1960 p u t Souvanna Phouma b a c k i n c o n t r o l o f t h e Lao government. Souvanna c o n s e q u e n t l y began t o r e -e s t a b l i s h d i p l o m a t i c c o n t a c t s w i t h Communist powers, n o t f o r i d e o l o g i c a l 17 r e a s o n s b u t t o en s u r e the p r e s e r v a t i o n . o f " h i s n e u t r a l government. Sou-vanna was s t r o n g l y opposed by G e n e r a l Phoumi Nosavan's r i g h t i s t f a c t i o n , however, as w e l l as by the P a t h e t Lao w h i c h w o u l d n o t a g r e e t o r e j o i n t h e government i n V i e n t i a n e w h i c h t h e y c o n s i d e r e d b i a s e d a g a i n s t t h e i r i n t e r -e s t s . A t t h i s p o i n t , as John M c A l l i s t e r i n an a r t i c l e i n W o r l d P o l i t i c s i n d i c a t e s , "The s t r u g g l e among t h e s e f a c t i o n s c r e a t e d o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r e x t e r n a l i n v o l v e m e n t i n L a o t i a n p o l i t i c s on a s c a l e n e v e r b e f o r e a p p r o a c h -18 ed i n m a i n l a n d S o u t h e a s t A s i a . " R u s s i a began t o s u p p l y b o t h t h e n e u t r a l -i s t s o f Souvanna. and t h e P a t h e t Lao w i t h arms and a i d , . w h i l e t h e U.S. o f f e r e d i t s a i d t o the P h o u m i s t s . E v e n t u a l l y , however, t h e m i l i t a r y g a i n s 16 o f t h e P a t h e t Lao t h r e a t e n e d t o i n v o l v e the U.S.S.R. i n a d i r e c t c o n f r o n t -a t i o n , w i t h t h e U.S., and by the s p r i n g . o f 1961, t h e : S o v i e t . U n i o n o p t e d 19 f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s . A t r u c e was d e c l a r e d between t h e r i v a l f a c t i o n s i n Laos i n May, 1961, and w i t h i n t h e same month, a c o n f e r e n c e was convened i n Geneva w h i c h a t t e m p t e d t o p e r m a n e n t l y end t h e h o s t i l i t i e s .and a t t h e same ti m e r e c o n c i l e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r e s s u r e s as w e l l . The a c t u a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f e r e n c e on Laos l a s t e d more t h a n a y e a r , b u t i t i s e x t r e m e l y i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t t h e agreement w h i c h e s t a b l i s h e d a c o a l i t i o n government i n Laos was a c t u a l l y r e a c h e d i n Z u r i c h on June 22, 1961, between t h e t h r e e L a o t i a n l e a d e r s , P r i n c e Boun Oum, P r i n c e Souvanna 20 Phouma, and P r i n c e Souphanouvong. The agreements r e a c h e d i n Geneva i n J u l y , 1962 f o r m a l l y n e u t r a l i z e d Laos i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y w i t h t h e s i g n a t u r e s o f t h i r t e e n c o u n t r i e s , b u t t h e y d i d n o t p r o s c r i b e t h e a c t u a l f o r m u l a o f government t h a t Laos was to u t i l i z e s i n c e t h i s had a l r e a d y been s e t t l e d between the L a o t i a n s t h e m s e l v e s . The Geneva agreements were, o f c o u r s e , based on hopes f o r t h e e f f e c t i v e o p e r a t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n L a o s , b u t t h e c o m p o s i t i o n and p r o c e d u r e s . o f t h e government were l e f t up t o t h e L a o t i a n government. Arthur.Dommen, a w e l l - k n o w n s p e c i a l i s t on L a o s , b e l i e v e s t h a t few o f t h e . s i g n a t o r i e s o f t h e Geneva a c c o r d s r e a l l y had any i l l u s i o n s a b o u t . t h e d u r a b i l i t y o f the s e t t l e m e n t , though i t i s n o t e w o r t h y t h a t b o t h the S o v i e t and C h i n e s e r e a c t i o n s f o l l o w i n g the s i g n -i n g o f the agreements emphasized t h a t i n t e r n a t i o n a l d i s p u t e s c o u l d be s e t t l e d t h r o u g h n e g o t i a t i o n s . Dommen a r g u e s , however, t h a t , " F o r a l l t h e b i g powers, t h e agreement was more a f a c e - s a v i n g d e v i c e t o f r e e z e t h e 21 s t a t u s quo t h a n a f o u n d a t i o n for. s t a b i l i t y i n t h e a r e a . " The i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y r e c o g n i z e d t r i p a r t i t e government e s t a b l i s h e d by 17 t h e L a o t i a n s i n J u l y , 1962 a l l o w e d f o u r c a b i n e t s e a t s • e a c h t o the r i g h t -i s t s , and t h e P a t h e t Lao w i t h t h e r e m a i n i n g e i g h t p o s t s , o f M i n i s t e r g o i n g t o . t h e n e u t r a l i s t . f a c t i o n headed by .Souvanna.Phouma who had been, a p p o i n t -ed. P r i m e . M i n i s t e r and. D e f e n s e M i n i s t e r . . . Souphanouvong.(Pathet Lao) was g i v e n the .posts, o f Deputy P r i m e M i n i s t e r and M i n i s t e r o f . . N a t i o n a l Economy and P l a n n i n g , , w h i l e Phoumi .Nosavan ( r i g h t i s t ) was a l s o given.,the. p o s t s o f Deputy P r i m e . M i n i s t e r . a n d . M i n i s t e r . o f . F i n a n c e . T h i s arrangement meant t h a t t h e . s t r o n g e s t s i d e m i l i t a r i l y i n t h e c i v i l war. p r i o r t o t h e c e a s e -f i r e ( t h e P a t h e t Lao) was a c t u a l l y g i v e n o n l y o n e - f o u r t h o f t h e p o r t f o l i o s i n t h e c o a l i t i o n c a b i n e t . — a cause o f d i s p u t e f r o m t h e s t a r t o f t h e c o a l i -22 t i o n . A n o t h e r f a c t o r w h i c h was d e s t i n e d t o work a g a i n s t t h e s u c c e s s f u l op-e r a t i o n o f t h e c o a l i t i o n was t h e r e a l i t y t h a t t h e c a b i n e t was a c o a l i t i o n i n appearance o n l y , f o r t h e t h r e e . f a c t i o n s c o n t i n u e d t o c o n t r o l . t h e ad-m i n i s t r a t i o n and m i l i t a r y s e c u r i t y o f , t h e i r own a r e a s . w h i c h had no f i x e d b o u n d a r i e s . P e r h a p s more tha n a n y . o t h e r f a c t o r , t h i s d e . f a c t o p a r t i t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y r e s u l t e d i n t h e e v e n t u a l f a i l u r e o f t h e 1962 c o a l i t i o n government. Because o f t h e c o n t i n u o u s d i s p u t e s over, b o u n d a r i e s among th e t h r e e f a c t i o n s , t h e c e a s e - f i r e s u p p o s e d l y . i n e f f e c t i n t h e c o u n t r y s i d e was, i n f a c t , a c e a s e - f i r e o n l y on p a p e r . A t t h e g o v e r n m e n t a l l e v e l i n V i e n t i a n e , the w o r s t p r o b l e m t h a t f a c e d t h e new c o a l i t i o n w a s . t h a t posed.by t h e N a t i o n a l Assembly whose members 23 had b e e n . e l e c t e d i n the . r i g g e d . e l e c t i o n s , o f 1960 and w h i c h c o n s e q u e n t l y r e f l e c t e d t h e an t i - c o m m u n i s t . complexion.. o f t h a t p e r i o d . The t h r e e . p r i n c e s had n o t chosen, to d i s s o l v e t h e Assembly.because no f a c t i o n was p r e p a r e d t o h o l d t h e e l e c t i o n s r e q u i r e d . w i t h i n .90 days o f t h e d i s s o l u t i o n . S i n c e t h e Assembly was g e n e r a l l y a n t a g o n i s t i c t o t h e new c o a l i t i o n c a b i n e t , 18 Souvanna Phouma as P r i m e M i n i s t e r d e c i d e d i n O c t o b e r . o f 1962 t h a t t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n , t o t h e dilemma was t o r e q u e s t a v o t e of. f u l l powers f r o m t h e Assembly, and he was thus a b l e t o g a i n c o n t r o l o v e r the. government. The P a t h e t Lao v o c i f e r o u s l y o b j e c t e d t o t h i s . p r o c e d u r e on t h e grounds t h a t i t d i d n o t c o n c u r w i t h t h e p r i n c i p l e of u n a n i m i t y a g r e e d upon by t h e t h r e e f a c t i o n s . i n June o f t h a t y e a r . The g o v e r n m e n t a l organ w h i c h was.supposed to e n s u r e the p r i n c i p l e o f u n a n i m i t y and t o c a r r y o u t t h e . p r o v i s i o n s o f t h e s e t t l e m e n t was.the Commission i n Charge o f A p p l y i n g the.Geneva.Agreements. T h i s commission was n e v e r e f f e c t i v e , e s s e n t a i l l y b ecause i t s t h r e e committees were n e v e r a b l e t o c o o r d i n a t e , t h e i r e f f o r t s due to the i n s t a b i l i t y o f t h e c e a s e -f i r e i n the c o u n t r y s i d e . The c e a s e - f i r e committee was o n l y a b l e t o r e a c h an agreement on t h r e e agenda i t e m s d u r i n g t h e e n t i r e p e r i o d o f t h e c o a l i -t i o n . The r e a s o n , . o f c o u r s e , was t h a t because t h e r e were no b o u n d a r i e s between t h e f a c t i o n s i n the c o u n t r y s i d e , e a c h . c o n t i n u o u s l y c h a r g e d t h e o t h e r s w i t h . v i o l a t i o n s : o f the c e a s e - f i r e . A t t e m p t s a t d r a w i n g up a map showing t h e a r e a s . o f c o n t r o l o f each f a c t i o n were b l o c k e d by t h e P a t h e t Lao whose s u g g e s t e d a l t e r n a t i v e was t h e f o r m a l i z e d p a r t i t i o n o f L a o s . The I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n t r o l Commission, s e t up by t h e Geneva A c c o r d s w h i c h was supposed to a i d t h e L a o t i a n C e a s e - f i r e Committee, was hamstrung by i t s own r e g u l a t i o n s . r e q u i r i n g unanimous a p p r o v a l o f a l l r e p o r t s s u b m i t -t e d by the three-member commission and the, a p p r o v a l by t h e v a r i o u s f a c t -i o n s , o f . i n v e s t i g a t i o n s t o be c a r r i e d out i n t h e i r a r e a s . The ICC thus p r o v e d . c o m p l e t e l y h e l p l e s s i n e f f e c t i n g a.compromise between.the i n t e r n a l p a r t i e s . The b e g i n n i n g of the end t o t h e c o a l i t i o n . g o v e r n m e n t began, i n l a t e 19 1962 when the S o v i e t U n i o n p u t an embargo on t h e s u p p l i e s i t . h a d been s e n d i n g t o t h e n e u t r a l i s t f o r c e s o f Kong.Le. Souvanna Phouma t h e n had t o a r r a n g e f o r s u p p l i e s t o be f l o w n t o t h e n e u t r a l i s t s i n A i r A m e r i c a p l a n e s whose c o n t r a c t , was w i t h t h e A m e r i c a n economic a i d . m i s s i o n i n V i e n t i a n e . The P a t h e t Lao, w h i c h had been m a i n t a i n i n g i t s h e a d q u a r t e r s on the P l a i n o f J a r s w i t h Kong Le's f o r c e s , was e x t r e m e l y d i s p l e a s e d by t h e A i r A m e r i c a n a i r l i f t and once a g a i n . f i g h t i n g b r o k e o u t between t h e two f a c t i o n s . The c o n f l i c t between t h e P a t h e t Lao and Kong:Le's f o r c e s was i r -r e v o c a b l y f i n a l i z e d w i t h t h e a s s a s s i n a t i o n o f Kong Le's deputy commander, C o l o n e l K e t s a n a , on F e b r u a r y 12, 1963, and t h e . r e t a l i a t i o n by Kong Le's f o r c e s i n t h e a s s a s s i n a t i o n . o f the a n t i - A m e r i c a n , though o f f i c i a l l y n e u t r a l -i s t F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r , Q uinim P h o l s e n a i n A p r i l , 1963. D u r i n g t h e f o l l o w -i n g month, t h e P a t h e t Lao i n f l i c t e d heavy l o s s e s on Kong Le's t r o o p s and swept c l o s e t o V i e n t i a n e and Luang P r a b a n g . D u r i n g t h e f i g h t i n g , . S o u p h a n -ouvong and h i s a l l y , Phoumi V o n g v i c h i t , who was M i n i s t e r o f I n f o r m a t i o n i n t h e c o a l i t i o n c a b i n e t , f l e d f r o m V i e n t i a n e on the grounds t h a t i t was un-s a f e . T h e i r d e p a r t u r e marked t h e end o f P a t h e t Lao. p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e t r i p a r t i t e government though Souvanna Phouma has c o n t i n u e d t o l e a v e t h e i r p o s t s open i n t h e government. By t h e summer.of.1963, f u l l s c a l e h o s t i l i -t i e s h a d . a g a i n b r o k e n out i n Laos between t h e P a t h e t Lao and.the RLG the Geneva s e t t l e m e n t h a v i n g l a s t e d a s h o r t n i n e months. Summary The L a o t i a n c o a l i t i o n government was, as i n t h e case o f C y p r u s , a f a i l u r e , b u t f o r d i f f e r e n t r e a s o n s . S e v e r a l f a c t o r s s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n a t f i r s t appeared t o o f f e r t h e Laos c o a l i t i o n a g r e a t e r chance 20 f o r success.. t h a n the one i n Cy p r u s . . A g a i n , t h e s e , f a c t o r s can be.grouped i n . t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s o f t h o s e . r e l a t e d t o the r e l a t i o n s o f the . e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n w o r l d p o l i t i c s and upon t h e p o l i c i e s ..of .these p a r t i e s i n L a o s , t h o s e r e l a t e d t o . the n a t u r e of the i n t e r n a l , g r o u p s , . and . t h o s e . r e l a t e d t o the n a t u r e . o f . t h e s e t t l e m e n t . U n l i k e t h e Cyprus c a s e , the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n v o l v e d . i n the Laos d i s p u t e were n o t members of. t h e s a m e . a l l i a n c e . .The m a j o r o u t s i d e , p a r t i e s were, w i t h . t h e e x c e p t i o n o f N o r t h . V i e t n a m , engaged: i n what may be termed a " c o n t r o l l e d " c o m p e t i t i o n . ( i . e . . a v o i d i n g d i r e c t c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h each o t h e r ) i n L a o s , w i t h each p a r t y c o n s i d e r i n g Laos to,be i n some.way i m p o r t -a n t t o t h e i r s t r a t e g i c i n t e r e s t s . The i m p o r t a n c e o f Laos t o t h e U.S. and U.S.S.R., who w e r e . m o r e ' d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e c o n f l i c t t h a n . C h i n a , ap-p e a r e d l e s s and l e s s v i t a l , however, as t h e . w a r f a r e approached a danger-ous t u r n i n g p o i n t i n 1961. The S o v i e t U n i o n and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , f a c e d w i t h . t h e v e r y r e a l p o s s i b i l i t y o f a c o n f r o n t a t i o n i n Laos a t t h a t t i m e , b o t h . d e c i d e d t h a t they had o t h e r m o r e . p r e s s i n g i n t e r e s t s t h a n . t o become e m b r o i l e d i n . a r e v o l u t i o n a r y war i n a . c o u n t r y w i t h l e s s t h a n . t h r e e . m i l l i o n i n h a b i t a n t s . . C h i n a was l e s s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e t h r e a t . o f . w a r f a r e , t h a n i n m a i n t a i n i n g Laos as a " b u f f e r " zone a g a i n s t U.S.. interests..... S i n c e R u s s i a and t h e U . S . . a l s o . t e n d e d t o v i e w Laos i n t h e s e same t e r m s , t h e complement-a r i t y o f i n t e r e s t s between t h e m a j o r i t y , o f t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s p r o v e d t o be t h e main e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f a compromise s e t t l e m e n t . i n L a o s . The N o r t h Vietnamese w e r e . n o t , a s a n x i o u s , t o . s e e the i n t e r n a t i o n a l n e u t r a l i z a t i o n o f Laos as t h e o t h e r : o u t s i d e p a r t i e s , b u t were a l s o h o p i n g t h a t Souvanna Phouma w o u l d be. a b l e t o a c t as a b u f f e r . a g a i n s t U. S.. i n t e r e s t s . For. N o r t h V i e t n a m , t h e g e o g r a p h i c i m p o r t a n c e o f Laos,was even more v i t a l 21 to i t s I n t e r e s t s t h a n f o r any o f t h e o t h e r powers i n v o l v e d . s i n c e the Ho C h i Minh T r a i l , w h i c h N o r t h . V i e t n a m needed t o m a i n t a i n i t s own war e f f o r t , r a n t h r o u g h t h e e a s t e r n b o r d e r a r e a o f L a o s . N o r t h V i e t n a m , t h e r e f o r e , encouraged t h e P a t h e t Lao ( w i t h w h i c h t h e N o r t h Vietnamese h e l d c o n s i d e r a b l e i n f l u e n c e ) t o a c c e p t a s e t t l e m e n t w h i c h a t l e a s t a c - ' knowledged P a t h e t . L a o c o n t r o l o f the e a s t e r n p r o v i n c e s . Thus w h i l e the m o t i v a t i o n o f N o r t h V i e t n a m i n s e e k i n g a. s e t t l e m e n t was n o t . r e a l l y com-p l e m e n t a r y t o t h e m o t i v a t i o n o f the o t h e r e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s , t h e w i l l i n g -n e s s , t o compromise b y . a l l t h e o u t s i d e p a r t i e s e ncouraged t h e a c c e p t a n c e o f a c o a l i t i o n s o l u t i o n i n L a o s . As i n the case o f C y p r u s , t h e d e s i r e t o a v o i d a c o n f r o n t a t i o n meant t h a t t h e m a j o r e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s had to. a c c e p t l e s s t h a n a t o t a l v i c t o r y f o r t h e i r a l l i e s . The.U.S. was much more r e l u c t a n t t o concede t h e im-p o s s i b i l i t y o f v i c t o r y o v e r t h e P a t h e t Lao but.was f o r c e d t o do so by the s t r o n g m i l i t a r y g a i n s made by the P a t h e t Lao f o r c e s and by t h e i n -t e r n a t i o n a l p r e s s u r e s c l i m a x i n g a t t h e t i m e o f t h e s e t t l e m e n t . Even i f r e l u c t a n t i n some q u a r t e r s , a c c e p t a n c e o f a " l i m i t e d " v i c t o r y f o r t h e d i s p u t i n g f a c t i o n s was an a d d i t i o n a l e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t . o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n L a o s . A t h i r d e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f a c o a l i t i o n s o l u t i o n was a g a i n f o u n d i n t h e case o f Laos — t h e s u p p o r t o f a " s t r o n g e r " e x t e r n a l p a r t y w i t h a "weaker" i n t e r n a l p a r t y . B o t h t h e U.S., on the one s i d e , and N o r t h V i e t n a m and R u s s i a , on t h e o t h e r , were s u p p o r t i n g i n t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n L a o s . Even though U.S. a i d t o Souvanna Phouma's f a c t i o n o u t w e i g h e d R u s s i a n sup-p o r t o f t h e P a t h e t L a o , N o r t h V i e t n a m e s e t r o o p s u p p o r t and m i l i t a r y a d v i c e g i v e n t o t h e P a t h e t Lao combined w i t h R u s s i a n equipment and s u p p l i e s , en-a b l e d t h e P a t h e t Lao f a c t i o n t o more th a n h o l d i t s own on t h e b a t t l e f i e l d . 22 S i n c e the. m i l i t a r y b a t t l e soon became dominated by the P a t h e t Lao due t o t h i s e x t e r n a l s u p p o r t , t h e n e c e s s i t y . t o compromise became.urgent t o t h e U.S. i n o r d e r t o a v o i d c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h R u s s i a (and v i c e v e r s a ) . I n C a t e g o r y I I , t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i n t e r n a l : g r o u p s , Laos a l s o had a d i v i s i o n o f f a c t i o n s , l i k e C y p r u s , w h i c h p r o v e d t o be s u p p o r t i v e o f a c o a l i t i o n . s o l u t i o n . . I n t h i s c a s e , however, t h e . d i v i s i o n was i d e o l o g i c a l r a t h e r than e t h n i c and was a l s o a t h r e e - f o l d s p l i t r a t h e r t h a n a two-f o l d s p l i t . The t h r e e f a c t i o n s — r i g h t i s t , n e u t r a l i s t and l e f t i s t — was a d i v i s i o n w h i c h o f f e r e d a " m i d d l e ground" s u p p o r t i n g n e i t h e r e x t r e m e s . F a c t i o n a l membership, though.based o n . i d e o l o g i c a l b e l i e f s , a l s o tended to be f a i r l y s t a b l e i n . L a o s . The n e u t r a l i s t s m a i n t a i n e d the. g r e a t e s t degree -o f p o l i t i c a l c o n t r o l under Souvanna Phouma, and t h e P a t h e t Lao c o n t r o l l e d t h e g r e a t e s t amount o f t e r r i t o r y , though t h i s c o n t r o l f l u c t u a t e d e a s i l y . The r i g h t i s t group was t h e l e a s t p o w e r f u l i n membership b u t h e l d a good d e a l o f i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h i t s s u p p o r t by t h e U.S. government w h i c h was a l s o s u p p o r t i n g the n e u t r a l i s t s . Thus w h i l e the p a r t i e s were no t e q u a l i n s t r e n g t h , t h e t h r e e - f o l d d i v i s i o n . o f i n t e r n a l groups i n Laos was s t r o n g -l y s u p p o r t i v e o f a compromise s e t t l e m e n t . The n a t u r e o f t h e L a o s • s e t t l e m e n t ( C a t e g o r y I I I ) was a d e f i n i t e c o n - ; t r a s t w i t h t h e C y p r i o t c a s e i n t h a t i t , i n i t i a l l y a t l e a s t , was a f a c t o r w h i c h appeared t o enhance t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r t h e s u c c e s s f u l o p e r a t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n government. T h i s p o s i t i v e r o l e o f the s e t t l e m e n t i n t h e L a o t i a n c a s e was due f i r s t t o the f a c t t h a t t h e L a o t i a n s t h e m s e l v e s had d e s i r e d a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a and h a d . r e a c h e d t h e i r own agreements p r i o r t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l .conference i n Geneva, and second t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e Geneva A c c o r d s s i g n e d by t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s d i d n o t t r y t o a l t e r 23 t h e f o r m u l a worked o u t by t h e L a o t i a n s . The n a t u r e o f the . L a o s . s e t t l e -ment, t h e r e f o r e , p l a c e d t h e c o a l i t i o n government i n V i e n t i a n e on a much more s o l i d f o u n d a t i o n than d i d t h a t o f C y p r u s . A g a i n , however, t h e n o n - s u p p o r t i v e f a c t o r s i n the t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s u nder c o n s i d e r a t i o n outweighed t h e . f a c t o r s s u p p o r t i v e of. t h e Laos c o a l i -t i o n . The.Laos c o a l i t i o n government was g r e a t l y h i n d e r e d by t h e i n v o l v e -ment of t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n t h e . n e a r b y V i e t n a m war. Laos came more and more t o be seen a s . a n o t h e r " f a l l i n g domino " t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and, w i t h t h e e s c a l a t i o n o f the w a r . i n V i e t n a m , b o t h the U.S. and N o r t h V i e t -nam began t o c o n s i d e r t h e war i n Laos as an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f a w i d e r war i n a l l o f I n d o c h i n a . The f a c t t h a t t h e . L a o t i a n c o n f l i c t was i n e x t r i c a b l y l i n k e d t o o t h e r c o n f l i c t s . b e t w e e n the major o u t s i d e p a r t i e s . w a s a key ex-t e r n a l f a c t o r n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e Laos c o a l i t i o n . The p r o x i m i t y o f Laos t o V i e t n a m and t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h a t p r o x i m -i t y , l e d t o c o n t i n u e d i n t e r v e n t i o n i n Laos by a l l t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s , a second e x t e r n a l f a c t o r n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e Laos c o a l i t i o n . Because o f N o r t h Vietnam's d e s i r e t o p r o t e c t the Ho C h i Minh T r a l , H a n o i n o t o n l y d i d n o t w i t h d r a w i t s f o r c e s f r o m Laos .as p r o v i d e d f o r i n t h e Geneva A c c o r d s , 24 b u t a c t u a l l y i n c r e a s e d t h e i r numbers i n . t h e two e a s t e r n p r o v i n c e s . Ac-c o r d i n g , t o Dommen,, "Hanoi s a c r i f i c e d t h e c o a l i t i o n as t h e p r i c e f o r s e c u r -25 i n g c o n t r o l o f t h e Ho C h i Minh. t r a i l , by p r o x y o f t h e P a t h e t L a o . " The U.S. r e a c t e d t o i n c r e a s e d N o r t h Vietnamese p r e s e n c e by a g r e e i n g t o s u p p l y Souvanna.Phouma.with c e r t a i n l i m i t e d amounts,of m i l i t a r y equipment i n t h e autumn o f 1962. The U.S. was a b l e t o j u s t i f y f u r t h e r i n t e r v e n t i o n when the U.S.S.R. t h e n r e f u s e d to d e l i v e r s u p p l i e s t o t h e n e u t r a l i s t Kong L e ' s f o r c e s o n t h e P l a i n o f J a r s ; T h i s e x t e r n a l i n t e r v e n t i o n on a l l s i d e s was 24 a second e x t e r n a l f a c t o r n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e Laos c o a l i t i o n whose a l -ready shaky s t a b i l i t y was undermined even f u r t h e r by c o n s t a n t p r e s s u r e s g e n e r a t e d e x t e r n a l l y on the t h r e e L a o t i a n f a c t i o n s . The i n t e r n a l p roblems ( C a t e g o r y I I ) o f t h e L a o t i a n c o a l i t i o n g o v e r n -ment were e s p e c i a l l y a g g r a v a t e d by t h e b a s i c i d e o l o g i c a l d i f f e r e n c e s b e -tween t h e o p p o s i n g g r o u p s . The P a t h e t L a o , i n s p i r e d by the. V i e t Minh ex-ample and i n f l u e n c e , a c t i v e l y s u p p o r t e d a Communist p h i l o s o p h y — p l a c i n g them a t the extreme o p p o s i t e , i d e o l o g i c a l l y o f t h e r i g h t i s t f a c t i o n . As t h e f a c t i o n s became more and more d i s s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e i r p o s i t i o n s i n t h e c o a l i t i o n , t h e i d e o l o g i c a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e groups became even more pronounced, a key i n t e r n a l n o n - s u p p o r t i v e f a c t o r w o r k i n g a g a i n s t t h e c o a l i -t i o n . The d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n o f the P a t h e t Lao w i t h i t s . p o s i t i o n i n . t h e g o v e r n -ment was t h e r e s u l t o f t h e s e t t l e m e n t w h i c h a l l o t e d them f o u r p o s t s i n t h e c a b i n e t i n s p i t e o f t h e e x t e n t of. t h e i r t e r r i t o r i a l c o n t r o l . S e c o n d l y , Souvanna. Phouma. as P r i m e M i n i s t e r , was a b l e t o o b t a i n s p e c i a l powers t o g o v e r n . t h e c o u n t r y w i t h o u t r e c o u r s e t o t h e N a t i o n a l Assembly, f u r t h e r i r k -i n g t h e P a t h e t L a o . T h i r d l y , t h e N a t i o n a l Assembly i t s e l f was b o t h a n t i -communist and a n t a g o n i s t i c towards the new government, a f u r t h e r d i s a d v a n t -age t o the P a t h e t Lao f a c t i o n . . A l l o f t h e s e f a c t o r s h e l p e d t o c o n v i n c e t h e P a t h e t Lao t h a t the c o a l i t i o n , government.was n o t w o r t h s u p p o r t i n g f r o m t h e i r p o i n t o f v i e w , p r o v i n g to be a.second i n t e r n a l f a c t o r w o r k i n g a g a i n s t t h e s u c c e s s f u l o p e r a t i o n o f t h e government. A t h i r d i n t e r n a l f a c t o r . n o n - s u p p o r t i v e . o f t h e c o a l i t i o n , was t h e b e l i e f o f a l l the. d o m e s t i c groups t h a t the. c o a l i t i o n government.was t o be a p r o -v i s i o n a l s o l u t i o n . Each f a c t i o n t h o u g h t t h a t t h e main f u n c t i o n o f t h e new 25 government was to be the r e i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s and a r m i e s o f t h e . d i s p u t i n g f o r c e s , a f t e r w h i c h i t was e x p e c t e d t h a t new n a t i o n a l e l e c t i o n s w o u l d be o r g a n i z e d i n o r d e r t o e l e c t a N a t i o n a l Assembly and t o p e r m i t , t h e f o r m a t i o n of. a permanent c a b i n e t . S i n c e t h e Commission i n ch a r g e o f c a r r y i n g . o u t t h e r e u n i f i c a t i o n was u n a b l e t o o p e r a t e e f f e c t i v e -l y , however, t h e a l r e a d y a n t a g o n i s t i c N a t i o n a l Assembly g r e w . i n c r e a s i n g -l y annoyed w i t h a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a f o r . a n y . d u r a t i o n o f t i m e . M i l i t a r i l y , t h r e e a d d i t i o n a l p r oblems f a c e d t h e t r o i k a w h i c h were n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n : the.de f a c t o p a r t i t i o n o f the c o u n t r y , t h e i n a b i l i t y o f t h e t h r e e f a c t i o n s t o agree upon f i x e d b o u n d a r i e s , and t h e c o n t i n u e d v i o l e n c e , between the f a c t i o n s i n s p i t e . o f t h e c e a s e - f i r e . The c o n c e r n f o r t e r r i t o r i a l c o n t r o l amongst t h e f a c t i o n s i n Laos d i r e c t -l y c o n t r a s t e d w i t h the. m i l i t a r y s i t u a t i o n , i n Cyprus f o l l o w i n g t h e e s t a b -l i s h m e n t o f . t h e T u r k i s h - G r e e k C y p r i o t c o a l i t i o n government. As v i o l a t i o n s o f t h e c e a s e - f i r e mounted i n the c o u n t r y s i d e o v e r . t h e q u e s t i o n o f bound-a r i e s i n L a o s , , t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l . a r r a n g e m e n t s f o r s u p e r v i s i n g the c e a s e -f i r e became even more i n e f f e c t u a l . The w o r s e n i n g , m i l i t a r y : s i t u a t i o n , com-b i n e d w i t h i n c r e a s e d , e x t e r n a l i n t e r v e n t i o n , made t h e c o l l a p s e o f t h e Laos c o a l i t i o n a l m o s t an i n e v i t a b i l i t y . Whether o r n o t a c o a l i t i o n government i s s t i l l a v i a b l e s o l u t i o n i n Laos i s a q u e s t i o n o f some d e b a t e . The P a t h e t Lao and t h e RLG, on t h e i r own i n i t i a t i v e s , . h a v e made numerous.attempts s i n c e A p r i l , 1963, t o b e g i n 2 6 n e g o t i a t i o n s a g a i n o n . t h e s u b j e c t . The 1971 p r o p o s a l . o f t h e NLHS, hand-ed t o Souvanna Phouma by an envoy o f Souphanouvong, emphasized even more s t r o n g l y t h a n t h e 1970 p r o p o s a l , t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r f o r m i n g a 1 p r o v i s i o n a l 27 c o a l i t i o n . g o v e r n m e n t p r i o r t o t h e r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f L a o s . I n v i e w o f t h e c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n i n I n d o c h i n a , a s e t t l e m e n t i n Laos w i t h o u t a s e t t l e -ment i n V i e t n a m appears d o u b t f u l . 26 C o a l i t i o n C r i t e r i a The e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e case s t u d i e s o f the Laos and Cyprus c o a l i t i o n governments has h i g h l i g h t e d the f a c t o r s w h i c h were sup-p o r t i v e and n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e c o a l i t i o n s i n terms o f t h r e e g e n e r a l c a t e g o r i e s — t h e r e l a t i o n s o f e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n w o r l d p o l i t i c s and t h e i r p o l i c i e s towards t h e d o m e s t i c government, t h e n a t u r e o f t h e d o m e s t i c g r o u p s , and t h e n a t u r e o f the s e t t l e m e n t . D e s p i t e t h e dangers o f a t t e m p t i n g to e x t r a p o l a t e a s e t o f g e n e r a l c r i t e r i a f r o m s u c h a s m a l l sample o f case s t u d i e s , i t does seem p o s s i b l e t o c o n s t r u c t a l i s t o f the f a c t o r s w h i c h appear s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n government, as w e l l as t o make some g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a b o u t . c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s e f a c t o r s . Not a l l o f t h e s e f a c t o r s w i l l be r e l e v a n t i n e v e r y c a s e , b u t t h e l i s t w i l l be h e l p f u l i n c o n s i d e r i n g the case o f South Vietnam. The c r i t e r i a l i s t e d b elow a r e s u p p o r t i v e f a c t o r s o n l y ; t h e y have been d i v i d e d i n t o the t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s mentionned above under th e h e a d i n g s o f e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s ( i . e . i n t e r n a t i o n a l ) , i n t e r n a l f a c t o r s ( i . e . d o m e s t i c ) , and " o p e r a t i v e " f a c t o r s ( i . e . the n a t u r e o f the s e t t l e m e n t ) . Most o f t h e " o p e r a t i v e " f a c t o r s were drawn f r o m th e case examples by n e g a t i v e i n f e r e n c e ; i n o t h e r w o r d s , t h o s e f a c t o r s w h i c h were n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e s u c c e s s f u l o p e r a t i o n o f the c o a l i t i o n s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s l i s t i n a manner w h i c h w o u l d appear t o o f f e r them a s u p p o r t i v e f u n c t i o n . The g e n e r a l s u p p o s i t i o n made h e r e about a l l o f the f a c t o r s i n the f o l l o w i n g l i s t i s t h a t w h i l e n o t a l l o f them a r e n e c e s s a r y f o r the s u c c e s s f u l e s t a b l i s h m e n t 27 and o p e r a t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n government, t h e i r p r e s e n c e w o u l d g r e a t l y encourage t h e s e p r o c e s s e s . E x t e r n a l 1. membership o f t h e o u t s i d e p a r t i e s i n t h e same a l l i a n c e ; o r membership o f t h e o u t s i d e p a r t i e s i n a l l i a n c e s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by " c o n t r o l l e d " ( i . e . a v o i d i n g d i r e c t c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h each o t h e r ) o r " c o o p e r a t i v e " competion ( i . e . e n g a g i n g i n some c o -o p e r a t i o n w i t h each o t h e r ) , w h i c h w o u l d p r e f e r t o r e a c h a s e t t l e m e n t of a p a r t i c u l a r d i s p u t e . 2. a l i g n m e n t o f a s t r o n g e r e x t e r n a l p a r t y ( i e s ) w i t h an i n t e r n a l p a r t y . 3. a c c e p t a n c e by t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s o f l e s s than t o t a l v i c t o r y f o r t h e i r a l l y , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e case o f the e x t e r n a l a l l i e s o f t h e s t r o n g e r i n t e r n a l p a r t y . 4. a m i l i t a r y s t a l e m a t e o f t h e d i s p u t i n g f a c t i o n s so t h a t n e i t h e r s i d e i s a b l e t o w i n a c o m p l e t e v i c t o r y and the o u t s i d e p a r t i e s become i n c l i n e d towards s e e k i n g a s e t t l e m e n t ; o r the t h r e a t o f a m i l i t a r y v i c t o r y by the i n t e r n a l p a r t y n o t i n c o n t r o l o f the government so t h a t a t l e a s t one e x t e r n a l p a r t y chooses t o seek a s e t t l e m e n t . I n t e r n a l 1. d o m e s t i c i n i t i a t i v e s by the competing f a c t i o n s towards t h e c r e a t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n government. 2. d i v i s i o n o f the d i s p u t i n g f a c t i o n s i n e t h n i c groups i n . w h i c h mem-b e r s h i p i s s t a b l e and d i s t i n c t . 3. d i v i s i o n o f t h e d i s p u t i n g f a c t i o n s i n p o l i t i c a l groups w h i c h i n c l u d e one group i n t h e m i d d l e between two extremes. 4. a t e r r i t o r i a l groupment o f t h e d i s p u t i n g f a c t i o n s w h i c h does n o t i n h i b i t t h e i n t e r n a l p a r t i e s d e s i r e f o r a s e t t l e m e n t ( e i t h e r because t h e y want t o g a i n . o r m a i n t a i n p o l i t i c a l power o r because th e t e r r i t o r i a l d i v i s i o n l e a v e s t h e most v a l u a b l e t e r r i t o r y i n th e hands o f t h e o p p o n e n t s ) . O p e r a t i v e 1. a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a w h i c h r e f l e c t s the a c t u a l p o l i t i c a l , s o c i a l , and m i l i t a r y c o n d i t i o n s a t t h e t i m e o f the s e t t l e m e n t . 2. a f l e x i b l e l e a d e r a t the head o f t h e government who m a i n t a i n s h i s commitment to, be n e u t r a l a t t h e c e n t e r o f t h e p o l i t i c a l s p e c t r u m . 28 3. a mechanism a c c e p t a b l e . t o a l l p a r t i e s w h i c h a l l o w s f o r the ad-j u s t m e n t o f power o r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n t h e government i n a c c o r d -ance w i t h f u t u r e changes i n p o p u l a r , s t r e n g t h . 4. a mechanism a c c e p t a b l e to a l l p a r t i e s w h i c h e n s u r e s t h e f a i r n e s s o f e l e c t i o n s , r e f e r e n d u m s , e t c . 5. complete disarmament o f a l l g r o u p s . 6. an i n t e r n a t i o n a l s e t t l e m e n t w h i c h does n o t a l t e r o r c o n f l i c t w i t h d o m e s t i c d e s i g n s f o r a c o a l i t i o n government. 7. an i n t e r n a t i o n a l s e t t l e m e n t i n w h i c h the e x t e r n a l powers g u a r a n t e e a c t i v e s u p p o r t o f t h e . p r o v i s i o n s o f t h e a c c o r d s , but w h i c h a l l o w s the c o a l i t i o n government the r i g h t t o change i t s f o r m o f g o v e r n -ment as p r o v i d e d f o r i n c r i t e r i o n #3; t h e s e e x t e r n a l g u a r a n t e e s must be s a f e g u a r d e d by t h e e f f e c t i v e s u p e r v i s i o n o f a d o m e s t i c a l l y a c c e p t a b l e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n t r o l o r g a n . T h i s l i s t i n c l u d e s a l m o s t a l l t h e f a c t o r s w h i c h appeared t o be s u p p o r t i v e o f b o t h t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t - a n d o p e r a t i o n o f t h e c o a l i t i o n s i n Laos and Cyprus. I n C y p r u s , the d i r e c t o u t s i d e c o n t r o l o f B r i t a i n as a c o l o n i a l power a l s o h e l p e d to e n s u r e the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government, b u t i t i s n o t m e n t i o n e d i n the l i s t h e r e be-cause i t i s s u i g e n e r i s t o t h e Cyprus case.. Of t h e s e v a r i o u s . f a c t o r s , c e r t a i n o f them h e l d more i m p o r t a n c e f o r each c a s e t h a n o t h e r s , de-p e n d i n g o f c o u r s e on t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l and d o m e s t i c e n v i r o n m e n t a t t h e t i m e o f the s e t t l e m e n t . The f i r s t k e y e x t e r n a l f a c t o r , t h e r e l a t i o n s o f the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n w o r l d p o l i t i c s , was seen t o be paramount to t h e d e c i s i o n o f t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s t o seek a s e t t l e m e n t i n b o t h t h e c a s e s o f Laos and Cyprus. W h i l e i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o p r e d i c t the r e a c t i o n s o f a l l o u t s i d e p a r t i e s owing to t h e p a r t i c u l a r i t i e s o f each c a s e , i t can be assumed t h a t membership o f t h e o u t s i d e p a r t i e s i n t h e same a l l i a n c e w o u l d , u n d e r most c i r c u m s t a n c e s , be c o n d u c i v e t o a compromise 29 s e t t l e m e n t o f a d i s p u t e . However, the " c o o p e r a t i v e " a s p e c t o f t h e c o m p e t i t i o n m i ght f a l l i n t o a r e a s o t h e r t h a n t h a t c o n n e c t e d w i t h the immediate d i s p u t e . I n t h i s c a s e , t h e o u t s i d e p a r t i e s w o u l d o n l y be i n a s l i g h t l y b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t h a n . i f t h e y had been members o f a l l i a n c e s engaged i n " c o n t r o l l e d . " c o m p e t i t i o n . Thus o n l y a p a t t e r n o f c o o p e r a t i o n w h i c h was a l s o e x t e n d a b l e i n t o t he r e a l m o f t h e d i s -p u t e w o u l d o f f e r any r e a l b a r g a i n i n g advantages t o t h e . e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , i f t h e r e were s e v e r a l o u t s i d e p a r t i e s engaged i n d i f f e r i n g t y p e s o f r e l a t i o n s between t h e m s e l v e s , the e x t e r n a l e n v i r -onment m i g h t be both , s u p p o r t i v e and n o n - s u p p o r t i v e o f a s e t t l e m e n t . F o r example, two o u t s i d e p a r t i e s m i g h t be engaged i n " h o s t i l e " com-p e t i t i o n w h i c h w o u l d be t h e most u n l i k e l y t y p e o f r e l a t i o n s t o l e a d t o a compromise s e t t l e m e n t , y e t i n d i v i d u a l l y t h e y might be engaged i n " c o n t r o l l e d " o r " c o o p e r a t i v e " c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h one o r two o t h e r o u t s i d e p a r t i e s i n v o l v e d i n t h e c o n f l i c t . I n t h i s i n s t a n c e , the r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h o f the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n terms o f t h e i r a b i l i t y t o i n f l u e n c e t h e outcome o f the d i s p u t e , w o u l d be the most i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n t h e r e l a t i o n s o f t h e o u t s i d e p a r t i e s . A second k ey e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government, was seen i n t h e c a s e s o f Laos and Cyprus t o be t h e a l i g n m e n t o f a s t r o n g e r e x t e r n a l p a r t y w i t h an i n t e r n a l p a r t y . T h i s f a c t o r w o u l d appear i n most f o r e s e e a b l e c a s e s t o be c o n d u c i v e t o a compromise s o l u t i o n o f a d i s p u t e . The w e i g h t o f t h i s f a c t o r , however, depends on t h e r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h o f t h e i n t e r n a l p a r t i e s . I f the p a r t i e s a r e a p p r o x i m a t e l y e q u i v a l e n t i n s t r e n g t h , s u p p o r t o f a s t r o n g e r e x t e r n a l p a r t y f o r one i n t e r n a l group w o u l d n o t be p a r t i c u l a r l y con-30 d u c i v e to a compromise s e t t l e m e n t i f the e x t e r n a l p a r t y were s u p p o r t -i n g t h e i n t e r n a l p a r t y c o n t r o l l i n g t h e government. I f t h e i n t e r n a l groups were n o t e q u i v a l e n t i n s t r e n g t h , s u p p o r t o f an e x t e r n a l p a r t y f o r the s t r o n g e r i n t e r n a l p a r t y w o u l d a l s o n o t be c o n d u c i v e t o a compromise s e t t l e m e n t u n l e s s i t were o f f s e t by s u p p o r t from a n o t h e r e x t e r n a l p a r t y f o r t h e weaker i n t e r n a l p a r t y . I f t h e s t r o n g e r e x t e r n a l p a r t y s u p p o r t s t h e weaker i n t e r n a l p a r t y , as was t h e c a s e i n C y p r u s , t h i s s i t u a t i o n w o u l d be p a r t i c u l a r l y c o n d u c i v e t o a compromise s e t t l e m e n t . I n a case s u c h as L a o s , where b o t h i n t e r n a l f a c t i o n s were r e c e i v i n g e x t e r n a l s u p p o r t , the most i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r becomes w h i c h i n t e r n a l p a r t y i s a b l e t o s e i z e and m a i n t a i n c o n t r o l o f t h e l a r g e s t amount o f t e r r i t o r y . A t h i r d key e x t e r n a l f a c t o r w h i c h appeared s u p p o r t i v e o f the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n t h e c a s e s o f Cyprus and Laos was whether the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s were w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t l e s s t h a n t o t a l v i c t o r y f o r t h e i r a l l y , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e case o f the'. e x t e r n a l a l l i e s o f the s t r o n g e r i n t e r n a l p a r t y . T h i s f a c t o r m i g h t e i t h e r r e s u l t f r o m the n e c e s s i t y o f p o l i t i c a l e x p e d i e n c y (as i n C y p r u s ) , o r m i l i t a r y e x p e d i e n c y (as i n L a o s ) . Two m i l i t a r y c o n d i t i o n s w o u l d most l i k e l y e n c o urage a compromise s e t t l e m e n t : t h e t h r e a t o f d e f e a t f o r t h e i n t e r n a l p a r t y i n power, and a m i l i t a r y s t a l e m a t e . These c o n d i t i o n s can be a f o u r t h e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a . c o a l i t i o n government i f t h e o u t s i d e p a r t i e s v i e w them as s u f f i c i e n t r e a s o n to seek a s e t t l e m e n t . The t h r e a t o f t h e P a t h e t , L a o v i c t o r y i n Laos g r e a t l y e ncouraged the US t o seek a compromise s e t t l e m e n t , f o r example. L i k e w i s e , a m i l i t a r y 31 s t a l e m a t e m i g h t a l s o encourage t h e o u t s i d e p a r t i e s t o seek a s e t t l e m e n t i f t h e c o s t s of c o n t i n u i n g t h e s t a l e m a t e were c o n s i d e r e d t o o . g r e a t to b e a r by the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s . Of t h e i n t e r n a l f a c t o r s s u p p o r t i v e o f the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government, t h e f i r s t k ey c r i t e r i o n w o u l d seem to be the c h o i c e by t h e i n t e r n a l d i s p u t i n g f a c t i o n s o f a c o a l i t i o n s o l u t i o n on t h e i r own a c c o r d . T h i s f a c t o r was c r u c i a l i n t h e case o f L a o s , as i n d i c a t e d , and can be assumed t o be a s u p p o r t i v e f a c t o r i n most o t h e r p r o b a b l e s i t u a t i o n s . C h o i c e by t h e i n t e r n a l groups o f a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a , however, i s g r e a t l y dependent upon c r i t e r i a #2 and #3. A d i v i s i o n o f i n t e r n a l groups i n an o b v i o u s s o c i a l c l e v a g e s u c h as a l o n g e t h n i c l i n e s . , would encourage the c h o i c e o f a c o a l i t i o n f o r m -u l a by t h e i n t e r n a l groups i f the groups were more o r l e s s . e q u a l i n s i z e . The d i s p a r i t y i n the s i z e o f the e t h n i c groups i n Cyprus was. t h e reasonawhy: such^ai'formulaKwas n o t an;obvious^choi.ce--for t h e Greek and T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s . A t r i - p o l a r p o l i t i c a l c l e v a g e o f i n t e r n a l g r o u p s , as was t h e c a s e i n L a o s , would a l s o appear to be c o n d u c i v e t o e n c o u r -a g i n g t h e a d o p t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a . A m u l t i - p o l a r c l e v a g e w o u l d perhaps a l s o encourage a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a i f t h e r e were one " m i d d l e " group between t h e e x t r e m e s . Such a " m i d d l e " group p r o v e d t o be t h e r e a l key i n the t r i - p o l a r Laos c l e v a g e s i n c e the n e u t r a l i s t s were a b l e to b a l a n c e o f f t h e P a t h e t Lao and the r i g h t i s t s . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , a b i - p o l a r p o l i t i c a l c l e v a g e w o u l d p r o b a b l y be l e s s c o n d u c i v e t o a c o a l i t i o n s o l u t i o n . A f i n a l , i n t e r n a l f a c t o r s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government i s a t e r r i t o r i a l groupment o f the d i s p u t i n g 32 f a c t i o n s w h i c h does.not i n h i b i t the i n t e r n a l p a r t i e s d e s i r e f o r a s e t t l e m e n t . T h i s f a c t o r i s , of c o u r s e , r e l e v a n t o n l y i n . c a s e s i n w h i c h . t h e d i s p u t i n g f a c t i o n s a r e engaged i n a c o n t e s t f o r t e r r i t o r i a l c o n t r o l . Complete c o n t r o l o f a l l t e r r i t o r y w o u l d o b v i o u s l y n o t i n d u c e t h e c o n t r o l l i n g group t o seek a.compromise s e t t l e m e n t w i t h the o p p o s i n g : group assuming t h a t . t h e c o n t r o l l i n g group c o u l d s e i z e o r m a i n t a i n c o n t r o l o f the s e a t o f t h e government. I f the i n t e r n a l group w h i c h was s t r o n g e r m i l i t a r i l y was u n a b l e to s e i z e c o n t r o l o f the governmnet, a s t r o n g m i l i t a r y f o o t h o l d would a t , l e a s t s t r e n g t h e n the b a r g a i n i n g p o s i t i o n o f the " o u t " p a r t y , w h i l e . t h e n e c e s s i t y t o compromise w o u l d become o b v i o u s to t h e " i n " p a r t y . The most d i f f i c u l t k i n d o f t e r r i t o r i a l groupment to a s s e s s i s t h a t w h i c h i n c l u d e d " p o c k e t s " o f i n f l u e n c e f o r the d i s p u t i n g f a c t i o n s . I n t h i s i n s t a n c e , a number o f v a r i a b l e s i m p i n g e o n . t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e v a r i o u s . s e c t o r s c o n t r o l l e d by each s i d e : the i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e a r e a s t r a t e g i c a l l y , t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e a r e a e c o n o m i c a l l y , and t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e a r e a p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y . T e r r i t o r i a l c o n t r o l b a s e d i n a r e a s i m p o r t a n t f o r one o r more o f t h e s e t h r e e r e a s o n s , w o u l d be an o b v i o u s advantage t o t h e c o n t r o l l i n g g roup, and d e p e n d i n g upon t h e e x t e n t o f s u c h c o n t r o l , . a p o s s i b l e f a c t o r e n c o u r a g i n g a compromise s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e d i s p u t e . The l i s t o f o p e r a t i v e c r i t e r i a may o r may n o t be h e l p f u l i n e n s u r i n g the s u c c e s s f u l o p e r a t i o n o f o t h e r c o a l i t i o n governments, though i t can be assumed t h a t a t . l e a s t c r i t e r i o n #1(a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a w h i c h r e f l e c t s the a c t u a l p o l i t i c a l , s o c i a l , and m i l i t a r y c o n d i t i o n s a t t h e t i m e o f the s e t t l e m e n t ) and c r i t e r i o n #2( a f l e x i b l e l e a d e r 33 a t t h e head o f t h e government) would be germane t o most c a s e s . The o t h e r c r i t i e r i a a r e f a c t o r s w h i c h w o u l d seem t o have t o be worked C o u t a c c o r d i n g t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r c a s e and some o f t h e s e c r i t e r i a may-be e l i m i n a t e d a l l t o g e t h e r i n c e r t a i n i n s t a n c e s . The i m p o r t a n c e o f a l l o f the'Griteriausupportive o f the e s t a b -l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government, and o f t h e s e two operative c r i t e r i a w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d i n the f i n a l c h a p t e r o f t h i s study i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e case o f South Vietnam. 34 CHAPTER I I The D i v i s i o n o f F o r c e s Chapter. I d e s c r i b e d t h e most i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s w h i c h a f f e c t e d t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t . o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n two case s t u d i e s and w h i c h might.be l i k e l y . t o a f f e c t t he e s t a b l i s h m e n t of. c o a l i t i o n governments i n o t h e r i n s t a n c e s . T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l a t t e m p t t o d e s c r i b e b o t h t h e i n t e r n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t s a f f e c t i n g t he case o f So u t h V i e t n a m . Such a d e s c r i p t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l i n o r d e r t o c o n s i d e r w h e t h e r t h e c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h a r e s u p p o r t i v e o f a c o a l i t i o n government e x i s t o r a r e l i k e l y t o come i n t o e x i s t e n c e i n South V i e t n a m . I n t e r n a l E n v i r o n m e n t An e f f o r t to. examine the n a t u r e o f i n t e r n a l groups i n So u t h V i e t n a m must make some a t t e m p t t o d i v i d e t h e s e groups i n a c o m p r e h e n s i b l e manner. Methods w h i c h have t r i e d t o make d i s t i n c t i o n s between " p o l i t i c a l , " " e t h n i c and " r e l i g i o u s " g r o u p i n g s i n South V i e t n a m have n o t been s a t i s f a c t o r y b e -cause many o f t h e r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c groups a r e " p o l i t i c a l " as w e l l — i n some c a s e s , even more so t h a n the s e l f avowed " p o l i t i c a l " g r o u p s . The most s a t i s f a c t o r y manner o f g r o u p i n g South Vietnam's s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l group w o u l d seem to, be the method ado p t e d by. R i c h a r d B u t w e l l o f t h e i r d i v i s i o n i n t o p r i m a r y , s e c o n d a r y , and i n t e r m e d i a t e groups."*" These d i v i s i o n s do n o t i m p l y degrees o f i m p o r t a n c e ; r a t h e r , t h e y i m p l y c e r t a i n d e g rees o f f l e x -i b i l i t y i n t h e membership. P r i m a r y groups i n So u t h V i e t n a m can,be d e f i n e d as t h o s e groups i n w h i c h membership does n o t o r d i n a r i l y o r e a s i l y change. These i n c l u d e the B u d d h i s t s , t h e C a t h o l i c s , t h e Cao D a i and Hoa Hao r e l i g i o u s s e c t s , t h e 35 Montagnards, and the Chinese. Secondary groups can be defined.as those groups in which, membership is much more li k e l y to change, though the groups may be well-established. In the order of cohesiveness, these groups are the National Liberation Front (NLF), the Saigon government and i t s supporters (e.g. the bureaucracy), the Armed Forces of Vietnam (ARVN), and various other p o l i t i c a l parties, forces, movements, organized labor etc. The intermediate groups usually have no organizational or definite form but represent important groups nonetheless. These include the peasantry, the city dwellers, the intelligentsia, and the students (who do have some organizations). Since the boundaries and goals of the intermediate groups are d i f f i c u l t to define and since almost no data.is available on them, this analysis w i l l concentrate on the primary and secondary groups though the v i t a l support of the intermediate groups should not be overlooked. A. Primary Groups Buddhists The rapid rise of Buddhism as a p o l i t i c a l force began in the early 1960's and climaxed with the 1963 c r i s i s which led to the downfall of the Diem regime on November 1, 1963. In January, 1964, the Buddhist leaders organized the Unified Buddhist Church with Thich T r i Quang as the Secretary General of the Clerical Council, and Thich Tam Chau as Director of the Vien Hoa Dao (Dharma. Institute) in charge of secular affai r s . Agitation against the governments following Diem.continued and reached another peak in 1966 with the "Struggle Movement" led p r i -marily by Thich T r i Quang's followers against Premier Nguyen Cao Ky. During this period from 1963-1966, there was a s p l i t in. the ranks 36 TABLE I South Vietnam's S o c i o p o l i t i c a l . G r o u p s P r i m a r y Groups E s t i m a t e d Membership P e r c e n t a g e o f P o p u l a t i o n B u d d h i s t s 5,000,000 x 35-40% Cao D a i 1,600,000° 9.4% Ho a Hao 1,500,000° 8.8% C a t h o l i c 1,800,000° 10.6% Montagnard 700,000° * 4.1% C h i n e s e 1,500,000° 8.8% Secondary Groups E s t i m a t e d Membership P e r c e n t a g e o f P o p u l a t i o n NLF 2,550,000 S 15.0% S a i g o n Not a v a i l a b l e Not a v a i l a b l e ARVN 1,100,000 t 6.4% O t h e r s : CVT 500,000 X 2.9% VNQDD 500,000 X 2.9% D a i V e t s 200,000 X 1.7% NSDF 3,000 y N e g l i g i b l e P a r i s E x i l e s 8,000-20,000 t Not a p p l i c a b l e S o u r c e s : x G e r a l d H i c k e y , op, c i t . , p. 44 (DVT d a t a p. 35) o A l l a n Goodman, l b c . c i t : , Summer, 1969 s Douglas P i k e , op. c i t . , p. 96 ( i n c l u d i n g NLF s y m p a t h i z e r s - v e r y a p p r o x i m a t e ) t New Y o r k Times y A l l a n Goodman, l o c . c i t . , F e b r u a r y , 1970, Appendix ( p a r t i c i p a t i n g membership o n l y ) * H i c k e y e s t i m a t e s , basedOon h i s own c a l c u l a t i o n s , c l o s e r t o 1,000,000 Montagnards 37 Map I - A p p r o x i m a t e C o n c e n t r a t i o n o f South Vietnam's Communal Groups * *Source - A l l a n Goodman, O r b i s , Summer, 1969 pgs 509 & 510 B u d d h i s t Pagodas p e r P r o v i n c e (1963 e s t i m a t e ) 1 1-50 2 = 50-100 3 101-150 4 = 151-200 5 = 201-250 6 = 251-300 7 = 300-up • Cao D a i O Hoa Hao & C a t h o l i c C h i n e s e - c o n c e n t r a t e d p r i m a r i l i n major c i t i e s 38 between the Thich Tarn Chau group w i t h i t s headquarters at the Dharma I n s t i t u t e and the Thich T r i Quang f a c t i o n centered at the An Quang pa-goda i n Saigon. This s p l i t , as w e l l as the continued government per-s e c u t i o n of the Buddhist f o r c e s , had g r e a t l y weakened the Buddhist move-merit s i n c e 1966. Furthermore, the i n t e n s i t y of the v i o l e n c e and t e r r o r during the 1968 Tet o f f e n s i v e caused numerous Buddhist leaders to r e -examine what many observers considered to be t h e i r " f l i r t a t i o n " w i t h 2 the NLF. Buddhist a c t i v i t y s i n c e 1969 has focused p r i m a r i l y on the campaign f o r peace. Even s i n c e 1964, Thich T r i Quang had been i n s i s t i n g t hat monks should.never become i n v o l v e d i n p o l i t i c s : I I ne f a u t pas chercher dans.le bouddhism l a puissance d'un p a r t i p o l i t i q u e , car, quand une r e l i g i o n . s ' e f f o r c e de se donner c e t t e puissance, e l l e perdra de son e s p r i t r e l i g i e u x et deviendra a l o r s un danger pour l e peuple.3 Buddhist conduct, according to the Venerable T r i Quang, must be guided by three p r i n c i p l e s . 1) Buddhism n e i t h e r approves or disapproves of any government, i t merely approves or disapproves of i t s p o l i t i c s . 2) The c r i t e r i o n f o r judgment i s whether these p o l i t i c s are i n accordance w i t h the b e l i e f s of Buddhism; Buddhists w i l l , n e v e r . a c c e p t p o l i t i c s which en-danger t h e i r b e l i e f s and the. n a t i o n . 3) Buddhism has no.aim to s e i z e 4 power e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y . Thich T r i Quang r e a f f i r m e d these p r i n c i p l e s when he iss u e d h i s "three no's" on January 13, 1969 no v o i -c i n g of o p i n i o n , no p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t i e s , and no ^.demonstrations. R e l a t i o n s between the government and the An Quang group have d e t e r i o r -ated s i n c e 1969, however, when T h i c h . T r i Quang's Saigon r e p r e s e n t a t i v e , Thich Thien Minh, was a r r e s t e d f o r "harboring r e b e l s and possessing weapons 39 and communist s u b v e r s i v e l i t e r a t u r e . " I t a l s o seems e v i d e n t t h a t t h e B u d d h i s t s t h e m s e l v e s have no i n t e n t i o n o f becoming a p o l i t i c a l i n t h e immediate. f u t u r e i n s p i t e o f T h i c h Quang.'s. " t h r e e n o ' s " and appear l i k e -l y , t o p l a y a s . s i g n i f i c a n t a r o l e , i n the. f u t u r e o f South V i e t n a m as they h a v e . i n t h e p a s t . . One such i n d i c a t o r i s t h e l e t t e r T h i c h T h i e n Chau w r o t e t o P r e s i d e n t N i x o n o n l y a month a f t e r T h i c h T r i Quang i s s u e d h i s u l t i m a t u m : L a p a i x une f o i s c o n q u i s e , i l , f a u t que l e s p a s s i o n s se t a i s -s e n t a f i n que.se r e t a b l i s s e l a conc o r d e e n t r e l e s c i t o y e n s . M a i s pour que c e l a p u i s s e se r e a l i s e r , i l e s t .imperieux d ' a v o i r une f o r c e m o d e r a t r i c e dans l e mecanisme p o l i t i q u e : f u t u r ' d u Sud Viet n a m . Q u e l l e f o r c e au Sud-Vietnam p o u r r a i t j o u e r ce d o u b l e r o l e . d e f a i r e l a p a i x e t de l a p r e s e r v e r ? ... Ce s o n t l e s b o u d d h i s t e s . Ce s o n t e u x : q u i ' o n t l u t t e , au r i s q u e de l e u r v i e , p o u r l a p a i x pendant ces d e r n i e r e s annees. Ce s o n t eux q u i impregnes de l a d o c t r i n e de t o l e r a n c e de Bouddha, se c r o i e n t d e s t i n e s a l a tac h e de l a r e c o n c i l i a t i o n n a t i o n a l e . Les boud-d h i s t e s , c ' e s t ' i n c o n t e s t a b l e m e n t l e f a c t e u r de p a i x p a r e x c e l -l e n c e . 6 A second i n d i c a t o r o f t h e i m p o r t a n t f u t u r e r o l e o f t h e B u d d h i s t s i s t h e s t r e n g t h t h e y have a c h i e v e d i n e l e c t o r a l c o n t e s t s . I n . t h e 1971 e l e c t -i o n s . to t h e 159 s e a t Lower House, more tha n h a l f t he o p p o s i t i o n s e a t s were won by c a n d i d a t e s s u p p o r t e d by the An Quang f a c t i o n (28 s e a t s ) . 7 These i n c l u d e d h i g h army o f f i c e r s and Roman C a t h o l i c s , among o t h e r s , who had one t h i n g i n common.— o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e government. L i k e t h e o t h e r o p p o s i -t i o n g r o u p s , however, t h e B u d d h i s t s l a t e had.more s u c c e s s i n t h e u r b a n g a r e a s t h a n i n the c o u n t r y s i d e . T h i s i s because the a r e a s w i t h the l a r g -e s t B u d d h i s t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o c c u r around t h e Saigon-My Tho a r e a s i n t h e 9 So u t h , the c o a s t a l a r e a s o f N o r t h e r n I I C o r p s , and around Hue i n I Co r p s . I n . s p i t e o f a t l e a s t 5 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 . p r a c t i c i n g B u d d h i s t s i n South V i e t n a m , the l a c k o f B u d d h i s t o r g a n i z a t i o n i n the r u r a l a r e a s i s one o f t h e ma j o r weak-n e s s e s w h i c h may h i n d e r the p o t e n t i a l p o l i t i c a l s t r e n g t h o f the B u d d h i s t s 40 s i n c e t h e v o i d so f a r has been f i l l e d by e i t h e r the communal ( e t h n i c ) groups o r by the NLF."^ T h i s weakness.may become l e s s i m p o r t a n t as f o r c e d u r b a n i z a t i o n c o n t i n u e s i n t h e S o u t h . One o f t h e m a j o r B u d d h i s t m i l i t a r y and p o l i t i c a l f i g u r e s i n S a i g o n i s G e n e r a l Duong Van Minh ("Big M i n h " ) . I n the o p i n i o n o f s e v e r a l an-a l y s t s , M i n h i s a l e a d i n g c o n t e n d o r f o r an i m p o r t a n t f u t u r e p o l i t i c a l r o l e as he a p p e a l s t o a l a r g e c o n s t i t u e n c y , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e u r b a n work-i n g c l a s s e s , as w e l l as a v a r i e t y o f p o l i t i c i a n s T h i s a p p e a l i s b a s e d l a r g e l y on h i s c o n n e c t i o n s w i t h two groups — t h e B u d d h i s t s and t h e m i l i -t a r y . Minh was the l e a d e r o f t h e 1963 coup d ' e t a t a g a i n s t Ngo D i n h Diem. H i s own government l a s t e d o n l y t h r e e months,.a p e r i o d w h i c h d i d n o t mark him as a h i g h l y competent a d m i n i s t r a t o r a c c o r d i n g t o h i s o p p o n e n t s . Minh' s u p p o r t e r s , however, t r i e d t o r u n h i m f o r P r e s i d e n t i n 1967 even w h i l e he was i n e x i l e . He a g a i n c o n s i d e r e d r u n n i n g f o r t h e P r e s i d e n c y i n the 1971 e l e c t i o n , w i t h many p r e d i c t i n g h i s v i c t o r y , b u t w i t h d r e w when i t became o b v i o u s t h a t T h i e u was n o t g o i n g t o c o n d u c t a f a i r e l e c t i o n . Minh's s u p -p o r t e r s i n the 1971 e l e c t i o n s i n c l u d e d the An Quang pagoda f a c t i o n , the C a t h o l i c A r c h b i s h o p o f S a i g o n , the heads o f the Cao D a i and Hoa Hao f a i t h s a f o r m e r V i c e - P r e s i d e n t , t h r e e f o r m e r P r i m e M i n i s t e r s , a dozen i n a c t i v e 12 g e n e r a l s , and a h o s t o f assembly d e p u t i e s , among o t h e r s . I t w o u l d appear t h a t the r e a l s t r e n g t h o f the B u d d h i s t s l i e s , i n f a c t i n the f u t u r e o f s u c h men as G e n e r a l Minh and o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s ( n o t n e c -e s s a r i l y B u d d h i s t s ) b a c k e d by t h e p o w e r f u l An Quang f a c t i o n . T h i e u ' s p o l i 13 o f h a r a ssment o f the monks has g r e a t l y weakened the p o s i t i o n o f t h e Bud-d h i s t s as t h e v a n g u a r d o f t h e o p p o s i t i o n f o r t h e time b e i n g . Even w i t h o u t any p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s t o speak o f , however, t h e B u d d h i s t s r e m a i n 41 the l a r g e s t and most p o t e n t i a l l y p o w e r f u l p r i m a r y group i n South V i e t n a m . C a t h o l i c s Hundreds o f N o r t h Vietnamese came s o u t h f o l l o w i n g t h e Geneva A g r e e -ments o f 1954. Most o f them were C a t h o l i c s , and most o f them have o n l y 14 p a r t i a l l y i n t e g r a t e d t h e m s e l v e s i n t o S o u t h e r n s o c i e t y . W h i l e t h e C a t h -o l i c s i n South V i e t n a m compose about 10 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n , o r ap-p r o x i m a t e l y 1,800,000 p r a c t i c a n t s , they have, however, an. i n o r d i n a t e amount o f c o n t r o l i n t h e government: 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e army o f f i c e r s a r e C a t h o l i c and 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e d e p u t i e s and s e n a t o r s , n o t i n c l u d i n g t h e key p o s t s i n t h e c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , w h i c h a r e a l s o h e l d by Catholics."'""' I n g e n e r a l , t h e C a t h o l i c community i n South V i e t n a m i s i n a r e l a t i v e l y "com-f o r t a b l e " s i t u a t i o n . a n d w o u l d appear to have s u f f e r e d l e s s f r o m t h e war t h a n o t h e r s e c t o r s o f t h e s o c i e t y . The C a t h o l i c community has a l s o b e e n , f o r the most p a r t , r a b i d l y a n t i -Communist. T h i s s t a n c e was t h e r e s u l t of. a p a s t o r a l . l e t t e r s e n t by t h e A p o s t o l i c d e l e g a t e i n I n d o c h i n a i n 1951, Mgr. D o o l e y , an I r i s h p r e l a t e who was s y m p a t h e t i c t o t h e F r e n c h c a u s e . T h i s l e t t e r was s i g n e d i n H a n o i by a l l t he b i s h o p s i n V i e t n a m ( F r e n c h and V i e t n a m e s e ) , and i t was d e s i g n e d t o f o r c e the V ietnamese C a t h o l i c s who had n a t i o n a l i s t s e n t i m e n t s t o r e -f u s e s u p p o r t t o t h e V i e t M i n h : Non seulement i l vous e s t i n t e r d i t d ' a d h e r e r au P a r t i communiste, mais vous ne pouvez pas non p l u s c o o p e r e r a avec l u i ou f a i r e q u o i que ce s o i t q u i p u i s s e de q u a l -que f a c o n amener. l e P a r t i communiste au pouvoir.-'-" I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o p l a c e the C a t h o l i c p o s i t i o n i n i t s h i s t o r i c a l p e r s p e -c t i v e h e r e i n o r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n d the- r o l e o f t h e C a t h o l i c p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s i n South Vietnam.and t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e newly formed " C a t h o l i c 42 Movement f o r P e a c e . " When Ngo D i n h Diem, a C a t h o l i c , came t o power i n t h e South i n 1955, h e .founded t h e N a t i o n a l R e v o l u t i o n a r y Movement and t h e a f f i l i a t e d Can Lao p a r t y , c o n t r o l l e d by h i s b r o t h e r s as t h e r e a l v e h i c l e f o r p o l i t i c a l c o n t r o l . The Can Lao f u n c t i o n e d . m u c h . l i k e a s e c r e t s o c i e t y s i n c e i t s members w e r e . c a r e f u l l y s e l e c t e d and w e r e . o r g a n i z e d i n t o c e l l s . Most members o c c u p i e d key p o s i t i o n s i n t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n above d i s t r i c t l e v e l and a l s o h e l p e d command p o s i t i o n s i n t h e m i l i t a r y . " ' " 7 The Can Lao l o s t i t s power w i t h t h e ; d o w n f a l l o f Diem, and.the o l d members have s i n c e a f -f i l i a t e d w i t h two C a t h o l i c p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s — t h e G r e a t e r S o l i d a r i t y F o r c e , w h i c h i s . t h e more prominent, movement under t h e l e a d e r s h i p o f Sena-t o r Nguyen Gia. H i e n , and t h e Nhan Xa p a r t y . There a r e a l s o s e v e r a l o t h e r C a t h o l i c , p o l i t i c a l . g r o u p s w h i c h i n c l u d e t h e . P e o p l e ' s U n i o n , the C h r i s t i a n D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y , t h e C a t h o l i c L a b o r Y o u t h (Jeunes O u v r i e r s . C a t h o l i c s ) , and t h e . C a t h o l i c C i t i z e n ' s B l o c . The l a t t e r r e p r e s e n t s a . f a i r l y l a r g e s e c t i o n o f the C a t h o l i c c o n s t i t u e n c y . The Nhan Xa. p a r t y seems, t o have become..the r e a l s u c c e s s o r , to t h e 18 Can Lao i n b o t h i t s l e a d e r s h i p and i n i t s e l i t i s t and s e c r e t i v e n a t u r e . A c c o r d i n g t o A l l a n Goodman, many of. t h e famous p r i e s t s . i n t h e . S o u t h have s u g g e s t e d t h a t : C a t h o l i c p o l i t i c s now i n v o l v e f e w e r and f e w e r p a r t i c i p a n t s s i n c e t h e b u l k o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n f e e l t h a t t h e C a t h o l i c p a r t i e s — s t a r t i n g w i t h t h e Can Lao — have n e v e r worked and a r e n o t now w o r k i n g to s e r v e the p e o p l e . R a t h e r , t h e dominant s e n t i m e n t among t h e s e C a t h o l i c l e a d e r s i s t h a t the p a r t i e s have o n l y worked t o g a i n p o s i t i o n s i n and c o n t r o l o f t h e government.to. t h e g l o r i f i c a t i o n and e n r i c h m e n t o f t h e i r l e a d e r s . T h i s s e n t i m e n t i s p e r h a p s . t h e m a j o r r e a s o n why a " p r i s e de c o n s c i e n c e " i n r e g a r d s t o t h e war has t a k e n p l a c e i n the C a t h o l i c community i n South 43 V i e t n a m s i n c e 1969. The f i r s t s i g n o f t h i s development was t h e form-a t i o n o f the "Movement f o r J u s t i c e and P e a c e " i n e a r l y 1969 among a group o f C a t h o l i c s , a movement based^on the V a t i c a n . l e t t e r o f A p r i l 25, 1967, on " J u s t i c e and Peace'.' T h i s movement aimed a t b r i n g i n g t h e c h u r c h i n t o harmony w i t h what the movement c o n s i d e r e d to be the two m a j o r p r o b -lems f a c i n g the w o r l d : t h e need f o r s o c i a l j u s t i c e , and t h e need f o r 20 peace. However, t h e movement r a p i d l y became d i v i d e d between t h o s e who w i s h e d i t t o be m e r e l y a s c h o l a r l y movement and t h o s e who w i s h e d t o use i t as a means o f r e c r u i t i n g Nhan Xa members. A second movement, t h e " C a t h o l i c Movement f o r P e a c e , " was founded i n November, 1970, by a group o f p r i e s t s , p r o f e s s o r s , and s t u d e n t s w i t h a s t a t e d g o a l o f g r o u p i n g a l l Vietnamese, d e s i r o u s o f c o n t r i b u t i n g - t o the 21 s e a r c h f o r peace. T h i s movement, a c c o r d i n g to a C a t h o l i c m agazine, has begun t o p l a y a v e r y a c t i v e r o l e i n t h e o p p o s i t i o n a g a i n s t T h i e u . I n a l e t t e r a d d r e s s e d t o Pope P a u l , t h e Movement c l a i m e d t h a t the c h u r c h e s had become the i n s t r u m e n t s o f p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s and had thus become i n -v o l v e d i n " o d i u s c o n f l i c t s o f i n t e r e s t . " I n o r d e r t o r e s o l v e t h e s e c o n -f l i c t s , w h i c h s e r v e d t o p r o l o n g t h e war, the Movement s u g g e s t e d t h a t the church, must: Hi) cease t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n p o l i t i c a l g r o u p s , and p a r t i c u l a r -l y d i s c o n t i n u e s u p p o r t . o f a n t i - c o m m u n i s t g r o u p s , 2) o p e n l y d e c l a r e t h a t each c i t i z e n . h a s t h e r i g h t t o h i s own p o l i t i c a l c h o i c e , and 3) d e c l a r e t h a t s o c i a l i s m c o u l d n o t be e x c l u d e d as a means.to l i b e r a t e men f r o m op-22 p r e s s i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , the C a t h o l i c Movement f o r Peace a d v o c a t e s the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a P r o v i s i o n a l . Government o f Union. (Gouvernement P r o v i -s i o n a l d ' U n i o n ) . i n w h i c h a l l p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s c o u l d p a r t i c i p a t e i n o r d e r : t o a c h i e v e n a t i o n a l r e c o n c i l i a t i o n and t o p r e p a r e p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e s 44 23 w h i c h w o u l d be t r u l y d e m o c r a t i c . The g o a l s o f t h e C a t h o l i c Movement f o r Peace a r e m e n t i o n e d i n l e n g t h h e r e b e c a u s e . i t appears t h a t a g r o w i n g number o f C a t h o l i c s i n South V i e t -nam, whether they a r e p a r t o f the Movement o r . n o t , a r e becoming more moder-24 a t e i n t h e i r a n t i - c o m m u n i s t s t a n c e . P a r t i c u l a r l y , t h e r e a s s u r a n c e s o f t h e P r o v i s i o n a l R e v o l u t i o n a r y Government (PRG) w h i c h t o o k the p l a c e o f the NLF i n 1969, t h a t i t c o u n t s on t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f . t h e r e l i g i o u s . c o m m u n i -t i e s i n the f u t u r e r e g i m e , have u n d o u b t e d l y i n f l u e n c e d many C a t h o l i c s w i t h 25 a t t i t u d e s on the b o r d e r - l i n e . As George Wald has p o i n t e d o u t , t h e f a c t t h a t the Church i s d o i n g so w e l l i n t h e . N o r t h i s e v i d e n c e i t s e l f . . F u r t h e r -more, Vi e t n a m e s e C a t h o l i c s i n the S o u t h , a c c o r d i n g t o Wald, a r e becoming 26 c o n v i n c e d t h a t Vietnamese Communism.is more Vi e t n a m e s e t h a n ^ c o m m u n i s t i c . There a r e s e v e r a l p r o m i n e n t C a t h o l i c , f i g u r e s who a r e n o t a g a i n s t h o l d -i n g n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h the PRG and.who would be l i k e l y p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a c o a l i t i o n government. These i n c l u d e the P r e s i d e n t o f t h e S e n a t e , Nguyen Van.Huyen, who would a u t o m a t i c a l l y become c h i e f e x e c u t i v e i f t h e P r e s i d e n t and V i c e - P r e s i d e n t r e s i g n . He i s w i d e l y regarded, as t h e V a t i c a n ' s s p o k e s -27 man i n S a i g o n . A n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t f i g u r e i s Ngo Cong Due, e x - E d i t o r o f the l e a d i n g o p p o s i t i o n newspaper T i n Sang, and e x - o p p o s i t i o n d e p u t y . i n the 28 N a t i o n a l Assembly. I n s p i t e o f h i s p o p u l a r i t y , Due l o s t i n t h e f a l l 1971 e l e c t i o n s . ; n o t o n l y was he p h y s i c a l l y a s s a u l t e d , h i s p o l l - w a t c h e r s 29 were a r r e s t e d and h i s v o t e s were n o t c o u n t e d . He was t h e n condemned t o t h r e e y e a r s i n p r i s o n and was f o r c e d t o f l e e t o P a r i s . Due and o t h e r p r o m i n e n t C a t h o l i c l e a d e r s r e p r e s e n t a s i g n i f i c a n t change i n t h e r o l e o f C a t h o l i c p o l i t i c i a n s • i n S outh V i e t n a m . T h i s change has s t r e n g t h -ened the o p p o s i t i o n i n S a i g o n b u t has a l s o meant a weakening of the f o r m e r l y 45 s o l i d C a t h o l i c p o l i t i c a l b l o c . C a t h o l i c s o f one. p e r s u a s i o n o r the o t h e r , however, s t i l l c o n t r o l a v a s t amount o f power i n . t h e government, n o t t o m e n t i o n t h e economyJ Thus i n • e v e r y a r e a but. membership (as compared t o the B u d d h i s t s membership).,, the. C a t h o l i c s . are. an e x t r e m e l y p o w e r f u l p r i m a r y group i n South V i e t n a m . Cao D a i The Cao D a i r e l i g i o n i s an i n d i g e n o u s movement founded i n 1926. I t began as a r e l i g i o n w h i c h w o u l d encompass a l l o f t h e g r e a t r e l i g i o n s i n t h e w o r l d i n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r t h e " T h i r d Amnesty o f God." The r e l i -g i o n b l e n d s t h e d o c t r i n e s o f Mahayana.Buddhism, C o n f u c i a n i s m , and C h r i s t i a n i t y and the t h r e e s p i r i t s p r i m a r i l y e n t r u s t e d w i t h h e l p i n g t h e r e l i g i o n a r e Sun Y a t - S e n , V i c t o r Hugo, and the Vietnamese p o e t - l a u r e a t e , Trang T r i n h . A l e s s . c o o p e r a t i v e e a r t h l y s p i r i t a p p a r e n t l y r e s i d e s i n 30 the b e i n g o f P r i n c e s s M a r g a r e t o f E n g l a n d . D i f f e r e n c e s among members s p l i t t h e movement i n t o e l e v e n i d e n t i -f i a b l e b r a n c h e s , e i g h t o f w h i c h s u r v i v e t o d a y . Membership i s c u r r e n t l y e s t i m a t e d a t about 1.6 m i l l i o n b u t r e c o r d s o n l y i n d i c a t e t h e number o f f a m i l i e s , and thus an a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e o f s t r e n g t h i s d i f f i c u l t . Those who have v i s i t e d Cao D a i a r e a s i n South V i e t n a m ( p r i n c i p a l l y Tay N i n h p r o v i n c e n o r t h w e s t o f S a i g o n ) , however, i n d i c a t e t h e r e i s l i t t l e doubt 31 as t o t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e r e l i g i o n i n t h o s e a r e a s . The o r g a n i z a t i o n o f Cao D a i v i l l a g e s i s e s p e c i a l l y s t r o n g s i n c e t h e y p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e s e c u r i t y and development o f t h e i r . p r o v i n c e * T h i s o r -g a n i z a t i o n a l c o h e s i v e n e s s has n o t s t r o n g l y d e m o n s t r a t e d i t s e l f on t h e n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l l e v e l , e x c e p t when t h e r e l i g i o n has f e l t i t s f a i t h t o be i n danger o r when t h e i r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e autonomy has been t h r e a t e n e d . 46 The Cao D a i l e a d e r s , a t d i f f e r e n t t i m e s , have s u p p o r t e d the V i e t M i n h, the F r e n c h , t h e J apanese, and Ngo D i n h Diem. : When i t became e v i d e n t t h a t Diem was p l a n n i n g t o c r u s h . t h e m i l i t a r y . f o r c e s o f t h e D e l t a s e c t s (Cao D a i , Hoa Hao, and a now d e f u n c t B i n h X u y e n ) , t h e Cao D a i j o i n e d w i t h t h e o t h e r s e c t s i n an a n t i - D i e m f r o n t . T h i s f r o n t f a i l e d and, as a r e s u l t , t h o s e members o f t h e Cao D a i who d i d . n o t l a t e r j o i n t h e NLF, have s u p p o r t -ed t h e governments f o l l o w i n g Diem i n r e t u r n f o r "amnesty" and a few cab-32 m e t p o s t s . The Cao D a i has a t t e m p t e d to o r g a n i z e a p o l i t i c a l p a r t y s i n c e 1968 33 under t h e . a u s p i c e s o f the Cao D a i C a p i t a l P r o p a g a t i o n S e c t i o n . A second Cao D a i p o l i t i c a l movement c a l l e d the S o c i a l R e p u b l i c a n , p a r t y was announced on November 25, 1969. The Cao D a i movements have l a c k e d u n i t y and have, t h e r e f o r e , n o t a c t e d as a s t r o n g o p p o s i t i o n f o r c e to t h e T h i e u government. I n f a c t , the v a s t m a j o r i t y o f Cao D a i members have been " s w a l l o w e d up meekly by the South Vietnamese Army" a c c o r d i n g t o t h e 34 F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review. I t i s l i k e l y , h o w e v e r , . t h a t t h e Cao D a i would s u p p o r t any government w h i c h was n o t a t h r e a t to t h e i r r e l i g i o u s o r t e r r i t o r i a l autonomy and thus b o t h t h e NLF and ARVN have been c a r e f u l 35 n o t t o i n t e r f e r e too e x t e n s i v e l y i n Cao D a i a r e a s . The Cao D a i w i l l most l i k e l y r e m a i n a s t r o n g o r g a n i z a t i o n a l group i n r u r a l a r e a s under t h e i r i n f l u e n c e b u t w i l l have much l e s s i m p a c t on t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l . Hoa Hao Hoa Hao i s a l s o a n ' i n d i g e n o u s r e l i g i o n w h i c h was. founded i n 1939 as t h e "new Buddhism". Hoa Hao Buddhism, s e e k s s i m p l i f i c a t i o n and mod-e r n i z a t i o n of t h e r e l i g i o n . I t a d v o c a t e s t h a t money n o r m a l l y d e v o t e d to "pomp and c i r c u m s t a n c e " o f Buddhism s h o u l d be s e t a s i d e f o r s o c i a l w e l f a r e 47 p r o j e c t s . The f o u n d e r , Huynh.Phu So, was p o l i t i c a l l y o r i e n t e d and founded h i s own p o l i t i c a l movement, t h e V i e t n a m S o c i a l D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y (Dan Xa) . D u r i n g t h e V i e t . M i n h war, r e l a t i o n s between t h e Hoa Hao and t h e V i e t M i n h were s t r a i n e d because So h a d . a c c e p t e d J a p a n e s e . a s s i s t a n c e f o r h i s movement. R e l a t i o n s .were i r r e v o c a b l y . d a m a g e d when. So was ap-p a r e n t l y ambushed.by t h e V i e t Minh a f t e r , he had a r r a n g e d a.meeting w i t h a V i e t Minh commander to i r o n o u t . t h e . d i f f i c u l t i e s . .Most o f So's f o l -l o w e r s t u r n e d t h e i r , a n t a g o n i s m .from t h e V i e t Minh t o the.NLF when t h e l a t t e r became a c t i v e i n , 1960. L i k e t h e Cao D a i , however, t h e Hoa Hao have n e v e r been p a r t i c u l a r l y p ro-government. Many Hoa Hao members a l s o j o i n e d t h e NLF i n 1960. A f t e r Nguyen Cao Ky became P r e m i e r , he made a . s p e c i a l e f f o r t to appease t h e Hoa Hao and d u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d , many p r o v i n c i a l o f f i c i a l s i n the w e s t e r n r e g i o n came fr o m the Hoa Hao, and An Giang became the most s e c u r e 37 p r o v i n c e i n South Vietnam. A l s o l i k e the Cao Dao, t h e Hoa Hao movement has been v e r y f r a g m e n t e d p o l i t i c a l l y . The S o c i a l D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y s p l i t i n t h e 1950's b u t r e -u n i t e d i n 1966 as t h e U n i t e d V i e t n a m S o c i a l D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y . Pham Ba Cam, who had l e d the o r i g i n a l s p l i t i n 1950, t h e n l a u n c h e d the V i e t n a m P e o p l e ' s F o r c e i n J u l y 1968 ( w h i c h w i l l be d i s c u s s e d l a t e r ) . The r e -m a i n i n g f a c t i o n o f t h e S o c i a l D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y j o i n e d P r e s i d e n t . T h i e u ' s N a t i o n a l S o c i a l D e m o c r a t i c F r o n t , (NSDF) i n A p r i l , 1969 ( a l s o t o be men-t i o n n e d l a t e r ) , p u t t i n g t h e two f a c t i o n s o f t h e Hoa Hao i n t o o p p o s i n g 38 p o l i t i c a l c o a l i t i o n s . The Hoa Hao, l i k e t h e Cao D a i , i s . a , s t r o n g f o r c e p r i m a r i l y i n t h e 48 a r e a s under i t s i n f l u e n c e . Hoa Hao membership i s e s t i m a t e d a t 1,500,000; t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e Cao D a i , b o t h groups can c l a i m n e a r l y o n e - h a l f o f t h e s i x m i l l i o n p e o p l e l i v i n g i n the r i c e l a n d s s o u t h o f S a i g o n . Hoa Hao power, t h e r e f o r e , w i l l probably, c o n t i n u e t o be f e l t i n t h e s e r u r a l a r e a s , much l i k e t h e Cao D a i , r a t h e r than.on the n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l l e v e l . Montagnards The p e o p l e s who l i v e i n the h i g h l a n d a r e a s i n V i e t n a m ( c a l l e d Montagnards by t h e F r e n c h ) c o n s t i t u t e somewhat l e s s t h a n f i v e p e r c e n t o f the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e S o u t h , o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 700,000 - 1,000,000 p e o p l e . These p e o p l e a r e o f a t o t a l l y d i f f e r e n t e t h n i c and l i n g u i s t i c s t o c k than the V i etnamese. I n 1955, the S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n assumed r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r a l l the S o u t h e r n h i g h l a n d s f o r t h e f i r s t t i m e . Diem's p o l i c i e s c o n s t i t u t e d perhaps t h e f i r s t " V i e t n a m i z a t i o n " program s i n c e he t r i e d t o impose the s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s and c u l t u r a l t r a i t s o f t h e V i e t -39 namese on t h e Montagnards. H i s r e s e t t l e m e n t p l a n f o r c e d t h e Montagnards o f f t h e i r a n c e s t r a l l a n d and moved them i n t o " r e s e r v a t i o n s . " The r e s u l t was t h a t t h e Montagnards were e a s i l y a t t r a c t e d t o t h e NLF's p r o m i s e s o f autonomy i n the e a r l y 1 9 6 0 ' s * ^ B e g i n n i n g i n . 1 9 5 8 , a group o f h i g h l a n d l e a d e r s j o i n e d t o g e t h e r and c a l l e d f o r a g e n e r a l s t r i k e . Seven o f the l e a d e r s were a r r e s t e d and t h e l a s t o f t h e s e was n o t r e l e a s e d f r o m p r i s o n u n t i l F e b r u a r y , 1964. On t h e i r r e l e a s e , t h e s e l e a d e r s p l o t t e d a g e n e r a l r e v o l t o f . t h e Mont-a g n a r d s , o u t o f w h i c h emerged t h e FULR0 movement ( F r o n t U n i f i e p o u r l a L i b e r a t i o n des Races Opprimees). T h e i r d e c l a r e d p u r p o s e was t o l i b e r a t e t h e m i n o r i t y p e o p l e s f r o m t h e "Vietnamese y o k e . " A f u l l - s c a l e r e v o l t l e d by t h e Rhade (one o f t h e t r i b e s ) d e v e l o p e d i n l a t e 1964 and f o r c e d t h e 49 S a i g o n government to make i m p o r t a n t c o n c e s s i o n s f o r t h e f i r s t t i m e : t i t l e s were p r o m i s e d f o r v i l l a g e l a n d s ; t r i b a l c o u r t s were t o be r e s t o r e d ; e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s . i n S o u t h V i e t n a m e s e h i g h s c h o o l s and m i l i t a r y academies were g u a r a n t e e d ; and t r i b a l l a n g u a g e s were t o be t a u g h t i n the p r i m a r y s c h o o l s . When none o f t h e s e p r o m i s e s were k e p t , a n o t h e r r e v o l t t o o k p l a c e i n 1965, and t h e government a g a i n p r o m i s e d improvement.. By 1967, some e f f o r t s had been made by t h e government a n d , . i n p a r t i c u l a r , T h i e u s i g n e d a l aw p r o v i d i n g f o r t h e l a n d t i t l e s t o be i n s t a t e d . FULRO n e g o t i a t e d w i t h t h e government so t h a t the Montagnards c o u l d f l y t h e i r own f l a g , and t h e government agreed t o i n c r e a s e t h e number o f Montagnard admin-i s t r a t o r s . There was a l s o a p r o v i s i o n i n t h e agreements f o r FULRO t o d i s b a n d and fo r m a p o l i t i c a l p a r t y . The new p o l i t i c a l p a r t y was c a l l e d the MOvement f o r U n i t y o f the S o u t h e r n H i g h l a n d E t h n i c M i n o r i t i e s , and i n May, 1969, t h i s movement became p a r t o f t h e P e o p l e ' s A l l i a n c e f o r S o c i a l R e v o l u t i o n and s h o r t l y t h e r e a f t e r , p a r t o f T h i e u ' s N a t i o n a l S o c i a l D e m o c r a t i c F r o n t . S i n c e t h e S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n embarked on f u r t h e r r e s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e Montagnards i n 1971, i t i s d o u b t f u l whether most o f t h e Montag-n a r d s s t i l l f a l l i n t o t h e p r o - T h i e u group. The p r o j e c t was an a t t e m p t t o upgrade t h e ha m l e t s e c u r i t y i n the c e n t r a l h i g h l a n d s , and 40,000 Montagnards have been s e n t t o over c r o w d e d , u n s a n i t a r y r e s e t t l e m e n t a r e a s 41 w h i c h have a s h o r t a g e o f l a n d t o c u l t i v a t e . The program has been s t r i c t l y u nder Vietnamese c o n t r o l and h a s , i n f a c t , been opposed by many o f t h e Am e r i c a n a d v i s o r s who b e l i e v e t h a t t h e Montagnards s h o u l d be 50 g i v e n t i t l e t o t h e i r f o r m e r l a n d b e f o r e . a n y . r e s e t t l e m e n t . . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e b i t t e r f i g h t i n g , in. t he H i g h l a n d s , i n . . t h e , p a s t decade has made i t e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u l t t o l o c a t e many o f t h e Montagnards h a m l e t s . s i n c e up 42 t o t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f them have been moved. To make m a t t e r s more d i f f i c u l t , t he Montagnards do.not u n d e r s t a n d t h e l e g a l i t i e s o f l a n d t i t l e s s i n c e t h e y a r e o f t e n i l l i t e r a t e and t h e r e f o r e , make l i t t l e e f f o r t t o p r e s s t h e i r c l a i m s . A t l e a s t one Am e r i c a n a d v i s e r , b e l i e v e s t h a t the " l a g " i n l a n d r e -43 f o r m f o r , t h e Montagnards i s i n t e n t i o n a l . S a i g o n o f f i c i a l s deny t h i s a l l e g a t i o n , b u t when t h e D i r e c t o r o f O p e r a t i o n s f o r , t h e . O f f i c e o f E t h n i c M i n o r i t i e s asked t o r e v i e w . t h e r e c o r d , o f t h e newly drawn b o u n d a r i e s , he 44 was r e f u s e d p e r m i s s i o n by t h e Land R e f o r m . O f f i c e . A f u r t h e r cause o f d i s c o n t e n t among t h e Montagnards i s t h a t when.they do f i n a l l y r e c e i v e 45 some l a n d , i t I s o f t e n . e n c r o a c h e d upon by Vietnamese, f a r m e r s . Many o f the Montagnards w o u l d l i k e t o r e t u r n t o t h e i r own l a n d s , . b u t a r e r e l u c -t a n t t o do so f o r f e a r t h a t the government wo u l d c o n s i d e r them " V i e t c o n g " . The Montagnards a r e n o t a v e r y w e l l o r g a n i z e d group compared to t h e o t h e r p r i m a r y groups i n South Vietnam. However, t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f k e e p i n g t h e s e e t h n i c t r i b e s under government c o n t r o l has c o n c e r n e d a l l o f t h e S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s f r o m Diem.to T h i e u . I f the s i t u a t i o n o f t h e Mont-agnards c o n t i n u e s t o d e t e r i o r a t e , i t i s h i g h l y p r o b a b l e t h a t t h e y w i l l a g a i n r e v o l t a g a i n s t t h e government. T h i s p r o b a b i l i t y s i g n i f i c a n t l y enhances t h e s t r e n g t h . o f t he.Montagnards. C h i n e s e The m a i n , s t r e n g t h o f t h e C h i n e s e community i n Sou t h V i e t n a m i s e c -onomic r a t h e r t h a n p o l i t i c a l b u t t h e i r i m p o r t a n t economic r o l e has made 51 them an urban force of no small significance. The fact that, the Chinese have remained aloof from p o l i t i c s in South Vietnam i s probably what ac-47 counts for their a b i l i t y to retain.power. Five types of bang,or cong-regations exist through which the Chinese have channeled their economic act i v i t i e s . These congregations remained f a i r l y autonomous under the French, but when Diem came to power, he tried to.pressure the Chinese into adopting Vietnamese.citizenship, by banning a l l foreigners from the 48 eleven professions which were predominantly controlled by the Chinese. In 1960, Diem further antagonized the Chinese by seizing control of a l l congregation properties and dissolving the congregation's admin-istrations. Later governments (especially under Premier Ky) tried to appease the Chinese by encouraging.them to form Mutual Aid Associations instead^ but this suggestion .was not adopted. Currently, the Chinese, primarily in Cholon, are successful by reason of what Benjamin Cherry of the Far Eastern Economic Review calls 49 "their almost unlimited resources for bribery ." This claim may be exaggerated, but i t : i s true, that the Chinese community, materially speaking, has the most to loose of any group in the south (though they are closely rivalled by the Catholic community). A new regime in Saigon would almost certainly attempt to curtail bribery and corruption which has been.one of the major complaints against the Thieu administration."^ Yet at the same time, the Chinese, who number, approximately 1,500,000,. control either directly, or through middle-men, the huge quantity of . South Vietnam's imports. This i s an important control.lever since any government which replaced Thieu w i l l s t i l l have to import heavily for some time.to come, even i f . a ceasefire i s established. Thus Chinese interests, while not cru-c i a l perhaps, s t i l l ' w i ' l l have to be accommodated by a future administration. 52 B. Secondary Groups -NLF/PRG The N a t i o n a l L i b e r a t i o n F r o n t i s the most o r g a n i z e d and c o h e s i v e s e c o n d a r y s o c i o p o l i t i c a l group.; i n S o u t h V i e t n a m . Membership i s e s -t i m a t e d by D o u g l a s ' P i k e to be-about .300 j000. as o f e a r l y 1969 o r 750,000 h a r d c o r e s u p p o r t e r s i f t h e members o f t h e P e o p l e ' s L i b e r a t i o n Armed F o r c e s (PLAF). a r e i n c l u d e d . " ^ W i t h s u s p e c t e d s y m p a t h i z e r s , t h i s r e p -r e s e n t s f i f t e e n - p e r c e n t / o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2,500,000 p e o p l e , though t h e a c t u a l f i g u r e s a r e p o s s i b l y h i g h e r . The NLF was founded i n 1960, and i t s c e n t r a l committee i n c l u d e d Chairman Nguyen Huu Tho, a S e c r e t a r y - G e n e r a l , and f i v e V i c e - C h a i r m e n . I t o p e r a t e s f r o m t h e C e n t r a l Committee t o the v i l l a g e l e v e l t h r o u g h v a r i o u s L i b e r a t i o n A s s o c -i a t i o n s , t h e most i m p o r t a n t o f w h i c h a r e t h e Farmer's L i b e r a t i o n A s s o c -i a t i o n , t h e W orkers' L i b e r a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n , the S t u d e n t L i b e r a t i o n As-s o c i a t i o n , t h e Y o u t h L i b e r a t i o n A s s o c i a t i o n , and the C u l t u r a l L i b e r a t i o n . A s s o c i a t i o n . The NLF a l s o has two p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , t h e R a d i c a l Soc-i a l i s t P a r t y and t h e D e m o c r a t i c P a r t y , as w e l l as a number o f s p e c i a l 52 i n t e r e s t groups such as t h e H i g h l a n d Autonomy Movement. The key member o f t h e NLF i s t h e P e o p l e ' s R e v o l u t i o n a r y P a r t y , t h e r e p l a c e m e n t f o r t h e S o u t h Vietnamese b r a n c h o f t h e DRV's Lao Dong P a r t y , w h i c h r e c e i v e s d i r e c t i o n f r o m H a n o i t h r o u g h t h e C e n t r a l O f f i c e f o r South 53 V i e t n a m (C0SVN). The PRP was founded i n 1962 as an o r g a n i z a t i o n s e p a r a t e f r o m t h e NLF b u t was i n c l u d e d as a member w i t h , a somewhat l i m i t e d r o l e a t 54 f i r s t . However, i n 1965, the PRP seems to have assumed paramountcy i n the NLF s t r u c t u r e , and p a r t y members.took v a r i o u s key p o s i t i o n s i n t h e l i b -e r a t i o n s t r u g g l e . Membership i n the PRP i n l a t e 1968 was e s t i m a t e d a t about 53 75,000 a c c o r d i n g t o P i k e , and.the p a r t y o b j e c t i v e i s t o advance t h e cause o f w o r l d . M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t S o c i a l i s m . The most u r g e n t g o a l o f t h e PRP, however, i s to a c h i e v e t h e r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f V i e t n a m . The NLF remains dominated by the.PRP o r g a n i z a t i o n , g o a l s , and c a d r e s a c c o r d i n g t o P i k e , . b u t t h e NLF a l s o i s i n t e r e s t e d i n a c h i e v i n g p o l i t i c a l power as w e l l as the e v e n t u a l r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f b o t h p a r t s o f V i e t n a m . The g o a l s o f t h e PRP and the NLF a r e now s h a r e d ones, b u t P i k e b e l i e v e s t h a t when t h e s e g o a l s become c o m p e t i t i v e ("the c r o s s r o a d s o f c h o i c e " ) , a r u p t u r e be-tween t h e NLF and t h e PRP i s i n e v i t a b l e . The NLF i s u n i q u e as a s o c i o p o l i t i c a l group i n South V i e t n a m n o t o n l y , b e cause o f t h e s u c c e s s o f t h e p o l i t i c a l s t r u g g l e i n t h e a r e a s o f NLF c o n -t r o l , b u t a l s o b ecause i t s o r g a n i z a t i o n i s l i n k e d t o a m i l i t a r y s t r u g g l e as w e l l . The m i l i t a r y s t r u g g l e i s , i n f a c t , c o n s i d e r e d t h e most i m p o r t a n t s t r u g -g l e a t t h i s s t a g e o f the war: W h i l e a l l a l o n g t h e p r o c e s s o f . t h e South Vietnamese r e v o l u t i o n , emphasis i s l a i d on p o l i t i c a l s t r u g g l e , armed s t r u g g l e o b v i o u s l y comes t o t h e f o r e a t t h e s t a g e o f t h e war o f l i b e r a t i o n . The top p r i o r i t y o f t h e m i l i t a r y s t r u g g l e i s f u r t h e r emphasized i n t h e NLF d e s c r i p t i o n o f i t s war s t r a t e g y known as t h e " t h r e e prongs, o f a t t a c k : " The t h r e e p r o n g s o f a t t a c k , as i s known, c o m p r i s e m i l i t a r y a c t i o n , p o l i t i c a l a c t i o n . o f the masses, p e r s u a s i o n and a g i -t a t i o n among enemy t r o o p s ; I n t h e i r o r c h e s t r a t i o n i t i s m i l -i t a r y a c t i o n w h i c h p l a y s t h e dominant r o l e , c o v e r i n g p o l i t i -c a l a c t i o n w h i c h , i n t u r n , f a c i l i t a t e s and h e l p s d e v e l o p armed v i o l e n c e . ^ The m i l i t a r y s t r u g g l e o f t h e NLF r e m a i n e d . p a r a m o u n t . i n s t r a t e g y . t h r o u g h 1 9 6 8 and c u l m i n a t e d i n t h e s p r i n g o f . 1 9 6 8 w i t h . t h e Tet o f f e n s i v e . As C h a r l e s J o i n e r has e x p r e s s i v e l y s t a t e d , " T e t was s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . t h e g e n i u s and the A c h i l l e s ' . h e e l o f H a n o i ' s g r a n d s t r a t e g y . f o r programming the p o l i t i c s o f p eace. I t was a p o i n t o f n o n r e t u r n . " " ^ On t h e one hand, t h e T e t o f f e n s i v e Map I I - Areas o f V i e t Minh C o n c e n t r a t i o n Map I I I - P r o j e c t e d A r e a s o f 1 9 5 4 * NLF C o n t r o l i n P o s t -war V i e t n a m * * Source - A l l a n Goodman, O r b i s , Summer, 1969, pg 510 * S o u r c e - A l l a n Goodman, A s i a n S u r v e y , A p r i l , 1971, pg 346 55 threw the American strategy and partial control of the countryside into chaos. On the other hand, Tet also showed that the NLF could not count on spontaneous popular urban support. The result was a marked re-emphasis on the political struggle from 1968. The first phase of the new.political strategy began in early 1969 when several "Alliances for Democracy and.Peace" were organized in urban, areas of Hue, Danang, Nhatrang, Dalat, and Saigon outside of NLF circles. These Alliances supported the NLF offensive, but when the seizure of power failed, the various alliances re-grouped to form the Alliance of National Democratic 58 and Peace Forces in April, 1968. Though the Alliance was supposed to be a separate organization created to provide an alternative for nationalist el-ements and a compromise group for any future coalition, the birth of the Al-liance was loudly heralded by the NLF. The Alliance was headed by a radical southern lawyer, Trinh Dinh Thao, who had served as Minister of the Interior in 1945 in the Tran Trong Kim government. The only.declared communist member 59 in its ranks was Dr. Duon Quynh Hoa. Attempts to separate the Alliance from the NLF were abandoned in June, 1969 with the formation of the Provisional Revolutionary Government (PRG). For several years; nothingremore was heard from the Alliance, but according to Robert Shaplen of the New Yorker, the Alliance has been recently resur-60 rected. The first step in its resurrection was indicated on April 20, 1972, when both the Chairman of the NLF, Nguyen Huu Tho, and North Vietnamese President,,Ton Due Thong, sent the Alliance laudatory fourth anniversary mes-sages. Shaplen suggests that when the proper time arises, the PRG will simply move the Alliance back into its original role of "alternative organization" to assume an important position in a future "caretaker" government in Saigon. 56 The f o r m a t i o n o f t h e PRG i n 1969 as a u n i o n o f t h e A l l i a n c e and t h e NLF was. t h e second phase o f t h e new NLF p o l i t i c a l s t r a t e g y . As d e s c r i b e d by i t s own s o u r c e s : The f o r m a t i o n - o f t h e PRG i s t h e c l i m a x o f a . p r o c e s s o f s e t t i n g up r e v o l u t i o n a r y power b e g u n . i n 1960 w i t h t h e p e o p l e ' s s e l f - m a n a g i n g .committees, t h e n w i t h t h e e l e c t i o n o f p e o p l e ' s r e v o l u t i o n a r y committees a t a l l . l e v e l s . ^ The l e a d e r s h i p o f the PRG i n d i c a t e s , the c o n t i n u i n g dominance o f t h e PRP 62 i n t h e l i b e r a t i o n s t r u g g l e . Huynh Tan P h a t , N L F . C e n t r a l Committee member, was a p p o i n t e d Chairman. NLF P r e s i d e n t Tho and A l l i a n c e Chairman Thao were e l e c t e d , as Chairman and V i c e - C h a i r m a n o f the A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l . The PRG has been o f f i c i a l l y . r e c o g n i z e d , by t w e n t y - f i v e c o u n t r i e s . I t has " r e p l a c e d " the NLF d e l e g a t i o n , at. the P a r i s t a l k s , though membership o f t h e d e l e g a t i o n remains e s s e n t i a l l y the same. And p e r h a p s most i m p o r t a n t , t h e f o r m a t i o n , o f the PRG has s i g n i f i c a n t l y h e l p e d t h e NLF d i p l o m a t i c s t r a t -egy i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l , c i r c l e s . The NLF/PRG remains the most p o w e r f u l s e c o n d -a r y group i n South Vietnam. S a i g o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n The S a i g o n government r e p r e s e n t s t h e second most o r g a n i z e d and power-f u l group i n South V i e t n a m a f t e r t h e NLF, though i t s c o h e s i v e n e s s i s ex-t r e m e l y f r a g i l e . Even t h e " h a r d c o r e " members o f t h e group ( t h o s e who.are adamantly opposed to s h a r i n g power w i t h t h e NLF/PRG i n any f a s h i o n ) a r e n o t a s t a b l e f o u n d a t i o n i n the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s i n c e , . a s sudden changes o f l e a d e r s h i p have shown i n t h e p a s t , even t h e s e members a r e c a p a b l e o f c h a n g i n g t h e i r a f f i l i a t i o n . . o v e r n i g h t . . W h i l e t h i s i n s t a b i l i t y o f "membership" i s , to some e x t e n t , c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of. . a l l t h e s e c o n d a r y groups i n S o u t h V i e t n a m ( i n c l u d i n g t h e N L F ) , i t i s a f a c t o r w h i c h w o u l d seem to be e s p e c i a l l y d e t r i -m e n t a l t o the o p e r a t i o n o f the government as a u n i f i e d group. The i n t e r n a l 57 s t r u g g l e f o r power.has c h a r a c t e r i z e d a l l o f t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s . i n S a i g o n f r o m Diem t o T h i e u and e x t e n d s f r o m t h e e x e c u t i v e l e v e l t h r o u g h t h e e n t i r e c h a i n o f command to t h e v i l l a g e l e v e l . The e x e c u t i v e has u s u a l l y t r i e d to c o n t r o l t h e o t h e r l e v e l s o f t h e government t h r o u g h v a r i o u s l a w s ; d u b i o u s ' e l e c t i o n . p r a c t i c e s , and b r i b e s , . . b u t t h e s e measures have p r o b a b l y i n c r e a s e d , r a t h e r t h a n d e c r e a s e d , t h e d i s u n i t y o f the. government. The key t o t h e government's c o n t r o l and o r g a n i z a t i o n i s t h e p o l i c e f o r c e and the armed f o r c e s ; The 130,000 s t r o n g . p o l i c e f o r c e , m o s t l y i n and around S a i g o n , has t h e r i g h t t o a r r e s t . a n y o n e w i t h o u t a w a r r a n t a t any t i m e . The number o f a r r e s t s • s i n c e t h e s t a r t o f the N o r t h V ietnamese o f -f e n s i v e has r i s e n r a p i d l y . F u r t h e r m o r e , s i n c e t h e s t a r t o f t h e 1972 o f f e n -s i v e , T h i e u h a s . d e c l a r e d m a r t i a l l a w and has f o r c e d a b i l l t h r o u g h t h e Sen-63 a t e under d o u b t f u l c i r c u m s t a n c e s w h i c h has g i v e n the P r e s i d e n t s p e c i a l powers f o r s i x months i n t h e a r e a s o f d e f e n s e , s e c u r i t y , f i n a n c e , and t h e economy. T h i e u ' s a t t e m p t t o e s t a b l i s h c o n t r o l i n t h e c o u n t r y s i d e hassals© g i v e n p r i o r i t y t o m i l i t a r y programs r a t h e r t h a n p o l i t i c a l ones. The " A c c e l e r a t e d P a c i f i c a t i o n Program" became the t o p p r i o r i t y c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o l l o w i n g t h e 64 1968 T e t o f f e n s i v e . Some e f f o r t s were made under t h e V i l l a g e Development Programs t o r e o r g a n i z e and s t r e n g t h e n l o c a l government, but p r o v i n c i a l and d i s t r i c t p o s t s c o n t i n u e t o be f i l l e d by o f f i c i a l s a p p o i n t e d f r o m the. c e n t r a l government m i n i s t r i e s o r s p e c i a l o f f i c e s . An a t t e m p t a t a p p o i n t i n g a few c i v i l i a n r a t h e r t h a n m i l i t a r y p r o v i n c e c h i e f s was c o n s i d e r e d u n s a t i s f a c t o r y by t h e S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , and t h e s e p o s t s c o n t i n u e t o be f i l l e d by t h e . -. . . 65 m i l i t a r y . As t h e T h i e u government c o n t i n u e s t o i s o l a t e i t s e l f even f u r t h e r f r o m 58 the p o p u l a c e , a change i n t h e S a i g o n l e a d e r s h i p seems i n e v i t a b l e . The c o n -t t i n u e d s t r e n g t h o f t h e S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n as a s e c o n d a r y group i n S o u t h V i e t n a m w i l l then depend on t h e p r i o r i t i e s o f those, who r e p l a c e T h i e u and w h e t h e r the U.S. government c o n t i n u e s t o back t h e new a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . But as A l l a n Goodman p o i n t s o u t , " W h i l e p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s may oppose t h e l e a d e r -s h i p o f t h e GVN, t h e y have come to a c c e p t i t s c o n s t i t u t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e and have begun to s e a r c h f o r a r o l e w i t h i n i t . " ^ ARVN Though the Armed F o r c e s o f V i e t n a m a r e under the c o n t r o l o f t h e S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , t h e y a r e an i d e n t i f i a b l e group i n t h e i r own r i g h t . The Armed F o r c e s now r e p r e s e n t o v e r one. m i l l i o n , oneshundred thousand men: 440,000 i n the army (ARVN) w i t h 350,000 a c t u a l l y engagedc'in d a i l y combat; o v e r 500,000 i n R e g i o n a l and P o p u l a r F o r c e s ; and an a d d i t i o n a l o n e - h a l f m i l l i o n armed l o c a l m i l i t i a known as t h e P e o p l e ' s S e l f Defense F o r c e s . ^ 7 The d r a f t laws have been r e c e n t l y changed so t h a t a l l t h o s e between t h e ages o f 17 t o 36 must s e r v e . T h i s change means t h a t u n i v e r s i t y s t u d e n t s i n p a r t i c u l a r w i l l no l o n g e r be exempt f r o m t h e d r a f t s i n c e i t i s a l m o s t unheard o f f o r a f i r s t y e a r s t u d e n t t o be under 18. The enlargement o f the armed f o r c e s s i n c e 1963 e x e m p l i f i e s t h e expanded r o l e o f the m i l i t a r y i n t h e S a i g o n government s i n c e the. o v e r t h r o w o f Diem. A f t e r some a t t e m p t s a t c i v i l i a n governments, t h e m i l i t a r y t o o k d i r e c t c h a r g e o f t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n 1965 w i t h t h e a p p o i n t m e n t o f V i c e A i r M a r s h a l Nguyen. Cao Ky as t h e P r i m e M i n i s t e r . When t h e m i l i t a r y d e c i d e d t o s u p p o r t Nguyen Van T h i e u ' s P r e s i d e n t i a l c a n d i d a c y i n .1967, t h e y f o r c e d Ky t o a c c e p t the V i c e -P r e s i d e n t i a l s p o t so as t o p r e c l u d e t h e . p o s s i b i l i t y o f a c i v i l i a n v i c t o r y a t t h e p o l l s . Even though t h e m i l i t a r y c o n t i n u e s t o r e m a i n s p l i t i n t o f a c t i o n s 59 w h i c h s u p p o r t T h i e u o r Ky o r n e i t h e r , t h e m i l i t a r y . h a s remained t h e g u i d i n g f o r c e o f the S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t certain.members of, t h e m i l i t a r y e l i t e do n o t f a v o u r the e n t i r e c o n s t i t u t i o n a l p r o c e s s . l a i d o u t i n 1967 because i t . s t r e n g t h e n s t h e 6 8 p o l i t i c a l p o s i t i o n o f t h e c i v i l i a n element, i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . The c o n f l i c t between the c i v i l i a n . a n d m i l i t a r y f o r c e s i n Vietnam, has deep h i s t o r i c a l f o u n d a t i o n s s i n c e t h e v a l u e s y s t e m o f t h e Vietnamese e l i t e has n e v e r h e l d t h e m i l i t a r y man i n h i g h r e g a r d . The m i l i t a r y , i s c o n s e q u e n t l y always on t h e d e f e n s i v e and i s p a r t i c u l a r l y a n x i o u s t o r e t a i n i t s c u r r e n t c o n t r o l o f the government. The m i l i t a r y w i l l , t h e r e f o r e , u n d o u b t e d l y c o n t i n u e t o be a s t r o n g c o n t e n d e r f o r power i n t h e f u t u r e o f South Vietnam. O t h e r Groups There a r e a m u l t i t u d e o f groups i n t h i s , c a t e g o r y f a l l i n g u nder t h e t i t l e o f p a r t i e s , f r o n t s , and movements. Not o n l y do these,names appear to have no r e a l d i f f e r e n c e s as f a r as p o l i c y , b u t i t i s a l s o d i f f i c u l t t o f i n d u p - t o -d a t e a c c o u n t s o f t h e c u r r e n t s t a t u s o f many o f t h e s e g r o u p s ; and some a r e o p e r a t i v e i n name o n l y . P o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s a r e now supposed t o be r e g i s t e r e d under Decree Law 009/69 w h i c h T h i e u i s s u e d i n an e f f o r t t o make v a l i d a t i o n o f p a r t i e s much more d i f f i c u l t and t h u s e l i m i n a t e many o f the new g r o u p s , b u t i t i s n o t c l e a r how many groups now c o n s t i t u t e l e g a l l y a c c e p t a b l e p o l i t i -c a l p a r t i e s . Goodman c i t e d a t o t a l o f t w e n t y - s e v e n a c t i v e and f u n c t i o n i n g 69 p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s and groups i n Sou t h V i e t n a m i n 1969. P e t e r K i n g c i t e d t h e . f i g u r e s o f P r o f e s s o r Nguyen Ngoc Huy w h o . c a l c u l a t e d n i n e l e g a l l y con-s t i t u t e d p o l i t i c a l . p a r t i e s and. f i f . t e e n , w i t h i n i t i a l a u t h o r i t y t o o p e r a t e a t t h e end o f 1 9 7 0 . 7 ^ A n o t h e r s o u r c e i n O c t o b e r , 1971, c i t e d a t o t a l o f e i g h t e e n p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s and movements.7''" I n any c a s e , some groups w i t h -o u t v a l i d a t i o n o r who a r e n o t s e e k i n g v a l i d a t i o n c o n t i n u e t o be v e r y i m p o r t a n t 60 p o l i t i c a l l y . T h e r e f o r e , t h e l i s t t h a t f o l l o w s has been c o n s t r u c t e d i n -d e p e n d e n t l y to i n c l u d e t h o s e g r o u p s . w h i c h appear to be the most i m p o r t a n t a f t e r t h e NLF,. S a i g o n , and.. ARVN g r o u p s . 1) V ietnamese C o n f e d e r a t i o n o f L a b o u r The V i e t n a m e s e C o n f e d e r a t i o n o f L a b o u r (CVT)- i s t h e l a r g e s t o f South Vietnam's f o u r l a b o r movements, and i t i s . c o n s i d e r e d . t h e most c o h e s i v e 72 f o r c e , a f t e r the m i l i t a r y , w h i c h i n f l u e n c e s government p o l i c y . The CVT now c l a i m s a membership.of 500,000 though a c t u a l dues p a y i n g l o y a l member-73 s h i p i s p r o b a b l y much s m a l l e r . The P r e s i d e n t o f t h e CVT, T r a n Quoc Buu, has been a p r o m i n e n t f i g u r e i n . t h e S a i g o n . p o l i t i c a l s c ene f o r some t i m e . He i s c o n s i d e r e d s t r o n g l y a n t i - c o m m u n i s t and has good r e l a t i o n s w i t h P r e s i -d ent T h i e u . A t t h e same t i m e , he i s c o n s i d e r e d a h i g h l y f l e x i b l e p o l i t i c a l p e r s o n a l i t y and. one w i t h a g r o w i n g i n t e r e s t i n h o l d i n g a p o l i t i c a l , o f f i c e s . I n 1968, Buu e s t a b l i s h e d the Workers and Farmers P a r t y (WFP) w h i c h i s the p o l i t i c a l arm o f the CVT. The WFP has o f f i c i a l p a r t y o r g a n i z a t i o n s i n n i n e -t e e n p r o v i n c e s and most p r o b a b l y w i l l be an i m p o r t a n t p o l i t i c a l f o r c e i n the f u t u r e . 2) The N a t i o n a l Social D e m o c r a t i c F r o n t (NSDF) The NSDF was founded i n May,.1969, by P r e s i d e n t T h i e u . I t r e p r e s e n t e d t h e c u l m i n a t i o n o f e f f o r t s by the P r e s i d e n t t o c o n s o l i d a t e h i s base o f sup-p o r t The main p u r p o s e o f . t h e NSDF was to group, under t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s l e a d e r s h i p , a l l t h e non-communist o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r e n g t h , b u t i t now appears to be s u f f e r i n g f r o m P r e s i d e n t i a l n e g l e c t and s e r v e s no r e a l f u n c t i o n as a p o l i t i c a l f o r c e . There a r e v a r i o u s o t h e r pro-government.movements and p a r t i e s s u c h as t h e P r o g r e s s i v e N a t i o n a l i s t Movement o f R e c t o r Bong.and t h e two o l d n a t i o n a l i s t 61 p a r t i e s , the VNQDD and t h e D a i V e t , b u t none.of them appear t o have much p o l i t i c a l i mpact.due to f a c t i o n a l i s m o r i n s u f f i c i e n t s i z e . 3) V i e t n a m . P e o p l e ' s F o r c e The V i e t n a m P e o p l e ' s F o r c e i s t h e o n l y d e c l a r e d " o p p o s i t i o n " movement i n government c i r c l e s . I t was. founded i n J u l y , 1968, p r i m a r i l y as o p p o s i -t i o n t o t h e P e o p l e ' s A l l i a n c e f o r S o c i a l R e v o l u t i o n w h i c h l a t e r j o i n e d t he NSDF. I t i s l a r g e l y a Hoa Hao group b u t a l s o i n c l u d e s some D a i V e t , Duy Dan ( a s m a l l p a r t y o f S a i g o n i n t e l l e c t u a l s ) and some f o r m e r VNQDD. The Vie t n a m P e o p l e ' s F o r c e , l i k e most o f t h e o t h e r movements, i s r e l a t i v e l y inr-s i g n i f i c a n t as a . p o l i t i c a l f o r c e i n S a i g o n . 4) P a r i s E x p a t r i a t e s The Vietnamese e x i l e s , i n P a r i s r e p r e s e n t a group o n l y by c i r c u m s t a n c e ' b u t t h e y a r e p o l i t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t as a p o t e n t i a l s o u r c e o f a c t i v i s t s i n Sout h Vietnamese p o l i t i c s and as p o s s i b l e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a c o a l i t i o n g o v e r n -ment. The DRV ( N o r t h Vietnam) and t h e PRG i n p a r t i c u l a r have watched t h i s group c l o s e l y . S i n c e the s t a r t o f t h e 1972 offensive,Madame B i n h and Xuan Thuy "have been d i n i n g and w i n i n g t h e Vietnamese r e s i d e n t s i n F r a n c e t o t a l k a b o u t , t h e r o l e o f a t h r e e - p a r t y government and t o l i n e up p o s s i b l e c a n -d i d a t e s f o r t h e n e u t r a l s e c t o r . " 7 ^ H a n o i , w h i c h i s n o r m a l l y c a u t i o u s about d i s c u s s i n g S o u t h Vietnamese p o l i t i c s u n l e s s i t i s the program.of t h e PRG, has s u r p r i s i n g l y been e m p h a s i z i n g the d e s i r a b i l i t y o f i n c l u d i n g some V i e t -namese abroad i n a f u t u r e c o a l i t i o n , as i n d i c a t e d i n an i n t e r v i e w o f Nguyen Duy T r i n h , N o r t h Vietnam's F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r and Deputy P r e m i e r . 7 " ' The number o f V i e t n a m e s e . e x p a t r i a t e s i n . F r a n c e i s e s t i m a t e d t o number 76 f r o m 8,000 t o 20;000. The l a r g e s t o r g a n i z a t i o n o f e x i l e s i s t h e 6,000 member A s s o c i a t i o n o f Vietnamese R e s i d e n t s i n F r a n c e w h i c h i n c l u d e s move-ments o f s t u d e n t s , w o r k e r s , e l d e r s , and women. The A s s o c i a t i o n i s o p e n l y 62 a n t i - T h i e u and a n t i - A m e r i c a n and s u p p o r t s the PRG's Seven P o i n t p r o p o s a l . I t has c u r r e n t l y r e a c h e d a t l e a s t some f o r m o f accommodation w i t h most o f t h e o t h e r Vietnamese groups i n F r a n c e . 7 7 The B u d d h i s t s and the C a t h o l i c s m a i n t a i n t h e i r own a s s o c i a t i o n s , though t h e y can p a r t i c i p a t e i n the A s s o c i a -t i o n o f R e s i d e n t s a t t h e same t i m e . A n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t group i n P a r i s i s the F r e e F o r c e s o f Vietnam.headed by L i e u t e n a n t C o l o n e l T r a n D i n h L a n . T h i s group c o n s i s t s o f a number o f former, army o f f i c e r s ; { s o m e I s t i l T i n V i e t n a m a p p a r e n t l y ) who a r e a n t i - T h i e u and who a r e a l s o i n f a v o u r o f the Seven P o i n t PRG P r o p o s a l f o r pea c e ; The F r e e F o r c e s , however, e n v i s a g e a c o a l i t i o n government w h i c h i s n o t c o n t r o l l e d by t h e PRG b u t one w h i c h has a t r u l y i n -78 dependent and n e u t r a l c o n t r o l l i n g s e c t o r . The p o t e n t i a l i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e P a r i s e x p a t r i a t e community s h o u l d n o t be o v e r l o o k e d f o r s e v e r a l r e a s o n s . F i r s t , many members o f t h e community a r e from w e a l t h y and p o w e r f u l f a m i l i e s who s t i l l w i e l d a good d e a l o f i n -f l u e n c e . When t h e s e e x i l e s r e t u r n t o V i e t n a m , as most o f them p l a n t o do when c o n d i t i o n s p e r m i t , t h e y w i l l n o t o n l y have t h e r e s o u r c e s t o b a c k them b u t t h e y w i l l a l s o have made p e r s o n a l t i e s w i t h o t h e r e x i l e s w h i c h w i l l un-d o u b t e d l y a f f e c t t h e make-up o f p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s i n So u t h V i e t n a m on t h e i r r e t u r n . S e c o n d l y , the P a r i s group i s a c o n v e n i e n t r e s o u r c e p o o l f o r b o t h t h e PRG, t h e " t h i r d f o r c e " e l e m e n t s i n South V i e t n a m ( t h o s e who a r e a g a i n s t T h i e u b u t n o t n e c e s s a r i l y p r o-PRG), and t h e U.S., s h o u l d an agreement be re a c h e d w h i c h f a v o u r s a c o a l i t i o n government. The e x i s t e n c e o f t h e m u l t i p l i c i t y o f r e l i g i o u s , e t h n i c , and p o l i t i c a l groups mentioned above i l l u s t r a t e s b o t h t h e d i v e r s i t y and d i s u n i t y o f i n -t e r e s t s , i n S o u t h Vietnam. I n p a r t i c u l a r , . i t emphasizes t h e d i s o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e " t h i r d f o r c e " ' g r o u p s i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e NLF and t h e S a i g o n a d m i n i -s t r a t i o n . The weakness o f the e x i s t i n g p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s i s bas e d 63 upon s e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s : f i r s t , t h e i n e x p e r i e n c e . o f t he o r g a n i z a t i o n s t r y i n g t o o p e r a t e . i n a c o m p e t i t i v e , p o l i t i c a l system;, second,, the l i m i t e d base o f the o r g a n i z a t i o n s ' c o n s t i t u e n c i e s ; and f i n a l l y , t h e c u r r e n t . p o l i c y o f r e -p r e s s i o n i n . S a i g o n . The f i r s t f a c t o r i s t h e r e s u l t o f t h e t y p e o f p o l i t i c a l . s y s t e m o p e r a t i v e i n V i e t n a m p r i o r to t h e F r e n c h . The t h r e e b a s i c components, o f t h i s s y s t e m were t h e Emperor i n Hue,.the.semi-autonomous v i l l a g e r u n by t h e C o u n c i l o f E l d e r s , and the extended f a m i l y . T h i s p o l i t i c a l s t r u c t u r e was e s s e n t i a l l y t r i a n g u l a r , w i t h . n o one s i d e d i r e c t l y f a c i n g t h e o t h e r two. Douglas P i k e e x p l a i n s t he r e l a t i o n o f t h e s e t h r e e f o r c e s as f o l l o w s : C o n f r o n t a t i o n o r even c o m p e t i t i o n was n o t i n t h e scheme o f t h i n g s . Some p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t d i d t a k e p l a c e w i t h -i n e a c h . o f t h e t h r e e e l e m e n t s , c h i e f l y a t the c o u r t l e v e l , where i t was . p o l i t i c s f o r . i n s i d e r s o n l y . V i l l a g e g o v e r n -ment e x i s t e d b u t had no b a s i s i n power. The c o u r t was d e c i s i v e . There was no l o c a l autonomy e x c e p t by f a c t o f i s o -l a t i o n , no sense o f " o u r r i g h t s " . . . R e l i g i o u s communities f u n c t i o n e d i n t h i s s y s t e m as t i e s between t h e t h r e e components b u t n o t as c o m p e t i t i v e g r o u p s . v y i n g f o r p o l i t i c a l power on a n a t i o n a l . s c a l e . E t h n i c communities were more o r l e s s l e f t on t h e i r own. The o n l y r e a l f o r m .of o p p o s i t i o n i n t h i s t r a d i t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l / s t r u c t u r e was r e b e l l i o n . When t h e F r e n c h a r r i v e d , . t h i s method was used by t h e V i e t Minh i n the s t r u g g l e f o r i n d e p endence. S i n c e many o f t h e l e a d e r s o f t h e V i e t Minh had been e d u c a t e d i n t h e French-manner, e i t h e r i n Vietnamese un-i v e r s i t y o r i n F r a n c e , t h e i r i d e a s had been g r e a t l y i n f l u e n c e d . b y c o n t a c t w i t h o t h e r p o l i t i c a l p h i l o s o p h i e s . Ho C h i Minh's c o n v i c t i o n t h a t t h e communist i d e o l o g y , was b e s t s u i t e d t o cope w i t h . t h e p r o b l e m s o f . V i e t n a m e n a b l e d t h e V i e t M i n h t o a s s o c i a t e t he p a r t i c u l a r g o a l s o f communism w i t h the " n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t " and independence d u r i n g t h e i r o r g a n i z a t i o n b u i l d i n g . 64 The o t h e r n a t i o n l i s t f o r c e s . f i g h t i n g f o r in d e p e n d e n c e , however, were n e v e r able.-to u n i f y t h e i r movement s i n c e t h e y c o u l d not c o o r d i n a t e t h e i r i n t e r e s t s . A c c o r d i n g t o M i l t o n S a c k s , Not o n l y was t h e r e a m u l t i p l i c i t y o f p a r t i e s and movements, b u t . t h e s e groups were f u r t h e r d i v i d e d . i n t e r n a l l y by w a r r i n g f a c t i o n s . . U n l i k e t h e communists who. b u i l t u p - t h e i r o r g a n i -z a t i o n i n t h e j a i l s and i n e x i l e , t he n a t i o n a l i s t s . b l a m e d each o t h e r f o r d e f e a t . a n d engaged i n b i t t e r e m i g r e s q u a b b l e s . The N a t i o n a l i s t l e a d e r s were m a n i p u l a t e d by th e .French, by the J a p a n e s e , by t h e communists.and l a t t e r l y by t h e A m e r i c a n s , w i t h t h e . r e s u l t t h a t a l e g a c y o f d i v i s i o n and weakness has been, perpetuated.8-*- " The c u r r e n t d i v i s i o n and,.weakness o f t h e v a r i o u s s o c i o p o l i t i c a l groups 82 i n S o u t h V i e t n a m . i s n o t due t o b a s i c p o l i c y d i f f e r e n c e s . On t h e c o n t r a r y , the g r e a t m a j o r i t y o f groups base t h e i r a p p e a l on p e r s o n a l . t i e s and l o y a l -83 t i e s r a t h e r t h a n on d i f f e r e n c e s i n programs o r o b j e c t i v e s . The m a j o r p r o b l e m o f t h e groups i s t h e l i m i t e d base o f t h e i r c o n s t i t u e n c y . The o n l y groups ( o u t s i d e . th e NLF) o r g a n i z e d s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r p o l i t i c a l p u r -poses w h i c h r e p r e s e n t a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e p a r t i c i p a t i n g c o n s t i t u e n c y , . a r e t h e CVT and the C a t h o l i c C i t i z e n s B l o c . But no government o r p o l i t i c a l g r o u p i n g has been a b l e t o w i n w i d e s p r e a d p o p u l a r s u p p o r t ; T h i s i s n o t t o say t h a t v a r i o u s o f the g r o u p s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e r e l i g i o u s and e t h n i c g r o u p s , do n o t r e p r e s e n t a l a r g e "membership," b u t r a t h e r t h a t p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s t h e o r e t i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t i n g t h i s membership have n o t been-e f f e c t i v e i n m o b i l i z i n g p o p u l a r s u p p o r t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , o n l y a s m a l l p e r -c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i s a c t i v e l y i n v o l v e d i n p o l i t i c s and, t h u s , t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n s have been u n a b l e t o e f f e c t i v e l y i n f l u e n c e governmental, p o l i c i e s . The weakness o f e x i s t i n g p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s i s e s p e c i a l l y i l l u s t r a t e d i n t h e Lower.House o f t h e N a t i o n a l Assembly. I n a s t u d y o f c o n f l i c t and accommodation w i t h i n t h e l e g i s l a t i v e , e l i t e , Goodman n o t e s . t h e s t r i k i n g l a c k o f t h e d e p u t i e s ' i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w i t h , and r e f e r e n c e t o , e s t a b l i s h e d p o l i t i c a l 65 o r g a n i z a t i o n s as the d e t e r m i n a n t s o f t h e i r b e h a v i o u r . Few d e p u t i e s even a s c r i b e d t h e i r e l e c t i o n . t o e f f e c t i v e p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n o r e f -f e c t i v e c a m p a i g n i n g . I n f a c t , i n t h e case o f C a t h o l i c and B u d d h i s t dep-u t i e s , o n l y , a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of. t h o s e e l e c t e d has r u n as d e c l a r e d c a n -d i d a t e s o f p a r t i c u l a r o r g a n i z a t i o n s ' . More th a n t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f a l l C a t h -o l i c s and s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f a l l B u d d h i s t s e l e c t e d i n the 1967 e l e c t i o n , r a n as i n d e p e n d e n t s . The d e c l i n i n g i m p o r t a n c e o f r e g i o n a l , r e l i g i o u s , and p e r s o n a l i s t i c b a s e s o f . t h e c u r r e n t p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s , does n o t , o f c o u r s e , r e d u c e t h e i m p o r t a n c e of. these, b a s e s f o r . f u t u r e p o l i t i c a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s . As Samuel H u n t i n g t o n . p o i n t s o u t , t h e r u r a l a r e a s w h i c h have been o r g a n i z e d by r e l i g i o u s o r e t h n i c c o m m u n i t i e s , have.been t h e most s e c u r e i n South Vietnam... F o l l o w i n g an e v e n t u a l , s e t t l e m e n t o f the war, i t i s t h e s e groups w h i c h w i l l b e . b e s t a b l e t o compete w i t h t h e NLF i n the p o l i t i c a l o r g a n -85 i z a t i o n o f t h e p e a s a n t r y . As T a b l e I and Map I i n d i c a t e ( s e e page-37)-) , t h e s e groups have t h e p o t e n t i a l t o o f f e r v e r y s t r o n g p o l i t i c a l compe-t i t i o n i n some a r e a s o f t h e c o u n t r y . F u r t h e r m o r e , i f the r i g h t t o o p p o s i -t i o n were encouraged and p r o t e c t e d , i t c o u l d be e x p e c t e d t h a t an amalga-m a t i o n o f r e l i g i o u s groups and t h e c u r r e n t members o f t h e p o l i t i c a l o p p o s i -86 t i o n w ould; t a k e ep.lace. The c u r r e n t S a i g o n government's c h a l l e n g e t o t h e r i g h t o f o p p o s i t i o n i s t h e t h i r d m ajor weakness o f t h e s o c i o p o l i t i c a l groups i n S o u t h Vietnam. None o f t h e r e g i m e s , f r o m P r e s i d e n t Diem.to P r e s i d e n t . T h i e u , have been a b l e t o . assume a n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l , o u t l o o k . v i s a v i s t h e . o p p o s i t i o n (I.e. t h e y a l l equated o p p o s i t i o n , w i t h r e b e l l i o n ) . As t h e segment o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n opposed t o government p o l i c i e s has grown, so have government measures d e s i g n e d t o c o n t r o l t h i s segment. Thus t h e o p p o s i t i o n s u f f e r s 66 f r o m h a v i n g t o compete f o r power w i t h b o t h t h e NLF and t h e government, as w e l l as f r o m b e i n g d i v i d e d a g a i n s t i t s e l f . I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o p r e d i c t e x a c t l y how the o p p o s i t i o n groups w o u l d r e a c t u n d e r . l e s s r e p r e s s i v e c o n d i t i o n s . & W h i l e some amalgamation o f f o r c e s , as i n d i c a t e d p r e v i o u s l y , would u n d o u b t e d l y . t a k e p l a c e , c e r t a i n i n t e r - g r o u p r i v a l r i e s , s u c h a s . t h e c o n f l i c t between t h e m i l i t a r y and c i v i l i a n s , do n o t appear l i k e l y t o a b a t e under any c o n d i t i o n s . I f d i v i s i v e n e s s c o n t i n u e s t o c h a r a c t e r i z e the So u t h Vietnamese p o l i t i c a l scene f o l l o w i n g a c e a s e f i r e , ' what M i l t o n Sacks c a l l s t h e " f u n d a m e n t a l t h r u s t i n Vietnamese. s o c i e t y t o w a r d an a u t h o r i t a r i a n f o r m o f government" may a s s e r t i t s e l f i n t h e i n t e r e s t o f 87 c r e a t i n g u n i t y . On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e s t u d i e s o f H i c k e y , Goodman,.and H u n g t i n g t o n o f f e r ample e v i d e n c e t h a t the t h r u s t towards accommodation be-tween Vietnamese when l e f t to t h e m s e l v e s , i s a l s o j u s t a s i , f u n d a m e n t a l . C. The C o a l i t i o n Concept I t i s i m p o r t a n t , t h e r e f o r e , t o c o n s i d e r the Vietnamese c o n c e p t of. c o a l i t i o n and compromise as p a r t o f the i n t e r n a l e n v i r o n m e n t a f f e c t i n g the p o s s i b l e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n South V i e t n a m . The co n c e p t o f c o a l i t i o n and compromise, i s i i o t , a new one t o Vi e t n a m e s e s o c i e t y . but r a t h e r i s one w h i c h f i t s i n t o t h e p a t t e r n o f accommodative t e n d e n c i e s t h a t have c h a r a c t e r i z e d Vietnamese h i s t o r y . The s e a r c h f o r compromise i n t h e f a c e o f o b s t a c l e s i n V i e t n a m has been n o t e d by b o t h Vietnamese and Western h i s t o r i a n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n r e g a r d s t o t h e v a r i o u s compromises t h a t have been made w i t h t h e Vietnamese p e r c e p t i o n o f the s t a t e and i t s 88 s o v e r e i g n t y . I n t h e more r e c e n t p a s t , v a r i o u s examples o f accommoda-t i o n t h r o u g h . c o a l i t i o n and compromise a r e a l s o n o t e w o r t h y . One s u c h example d u r i n g the f i r s t I n d o c h i n a war-was t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a " c o a l i t i o n " 67 government in. North. Vietnam i n March, 1946 following the January elec-tions - - a government which, was.• composed of a number of. p o l i t i c a l 89 groups and independents.as well as the communists. The acceptance by Ho Chi Minh of the division of Vietnam into two zones was also certainly a compromise (though one which.perhaps he could not have avoided) of both his beliefs and the strength of. his position on the battlefield. Similarly, other examples of compromise and accommodation between various interests can also be. found in South Vietnam since 90 the Geneva Agreements. The f i r s t South Vietnamese group to publicly advocate the estab-lishment of a coalition government in Saigon following the collapse of the 1954 Geneva Accords was the National Liberation Front which did so at i t s creation in 1960. At the same time, however, the NLF also claimed to be the "sole legal representative of South Vietnam", indicating that the NLF had no real intention of sharing p o l i t i c a l power at the national level at that time. The fact that the NLF continued to gain in strength and respectibiiity from 1960, however, also increased the respectibility of their demand for a coalition government in Saigon. Moreover, because the NLF manifestoes and proposals have showed a marked alteration of the Front's conception of a coalition government since 1960, the NLF has been able to keep i t s proposed "type" of coalition in the public view as the "only" possible coalition format in South Vietnam. The alteration of the NLF's conception of a coalition government can be seen in an examination of their proposals from I960.. Because the term "coalition" 1 .has multiple meanings in Vietnamese, the changes in the 68 NLF's t e x t s . i n t h e o r i g i n a l V i e t n a m e s e have been much more s i g n i f i c a n t f o r t h e South,Vietnamese a u d i e n c e o f t h e NLF t h a n f o r t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l a u d i e n c e . These changes i n language,, i n e s s e n c e , r e p r e s e n t a a a b a s i c change i n t h e a t t i t u d e , o f the NLF (and c o n s e q u e n t l y o f N o r t h Vietnam) toward t h e s h a r i n g o f power i n S a i g o n . The e v o l u t i o n o f t h e NLF's c o n c e p t o f a c o a l i t i o n t o o k s e v e r a l s t a g e s . I n i t s 1960 M a n i f e s t o , t h e NLF c a l l e d f o r t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a " n a t i o n a l d e m o c r a t i c c o a l i t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n " i n E n g l i s h , and a 91 " c o a l i t i o n g o v e r n m e n t " i i n V ietnamese. I n the 1967 M a n i f e s t o , t h e NLF program c a l l e d f o r t h e c r e a t i o n o f a " d e m o c r a t i c n a t i o n a l - u n i o n g o v e r n -92 ment" i n E n g l i s h , o r " u n i o n " government i n V i e t n a m e s e . " I n t h e 1969 T e n - P o i n t O v e r a l l s o l u t i o n of. t h e NLF, the c a l l was a g a i n made f o r t h e 93 e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a " c o a l i t i o n government" , b u t i n the 1971 E i g h t - P o i n t p r o p o s a l o f t h e NLF/PRG, a "b r o a d three-component i n t e r i m government 94 o f n a t i o n a l c o n c o r d " was c a l l e d f o r . T h i s term i n Vi e t n a m e s e i s 95 t r a n s l a t e d as " r e c o n c i l i a t i o n " o r sometimes as " c a r e t a k e r " government. The f u l l t e x t o f t h e 1 9 7 1 . p r o p o s a l s ( s ee Ap p e n d i x I I ) , i n e f f e c t , c a l l e d f o r two t r a n s i t i o n a l governments before., the f i n a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a gov-ernment o f " n a t i o n a l c o n c o r d " w h i c h w o u l d f u n c t i o n a f t e r t he p r o p o s e d e l e c t i o n s . The f i r s t government, as p r o v i d e d f o r i n the p r o p o s a l s , was to be e s s e n t i a l l y a. new S a i g o n government w i t h o u t T h i e u and w i t h some n e w . a d d i t i o n s . o f r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f r e l i g i o u s and p o l i t i c a l groups w h i c h f a v o u r e d "peace, i n d e p e n d e n c e , n e u t r a l i t y and democracy". T h i s p r o p o s e d government w o u l d have c o n t r o l l e d t h e So u t h V i e t n a m e s e Army (ARVN) and th e p o l i c e , b u t p r e s u m a b l y w o u l d have r e p l a c e d t h o s e o f f i c i a l s l o y a l to 69 T h i e u . The PRG w o u l d t h e n , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e 1971 p r o p o s a l s , have e n t e r e d i n t o : t a l k s w i t h t h i s new a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n o r d e r . t o be b r o u g h t i n t o , the"government on terms a c c e p t a b l e t o b o t h g r o u p s . T h i s combined government w o u l d t h e n j o i n t l y have c o n t r o l l e d the NLF t r o o p s , as w e l l as ARVN and the p o l i c e , and w o u l d a l s o have p l a n n e d f o r h o l d i n g t h e g e n e r a l e l e c t i o n s . I n F e b r u a r y , 1972, however, the PRG r e v i s e d i t s c o n c e p t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n , government even f u r t h e r by making a t w o - p o i n t " e l a b o r a t i o n " o f i t s S e v e n - P o i n t 1971 p r o p o s a l . P o i n t Two, c o n c e r n i n g t h e " p o l i t i c a l p r o b l e m " i n South V i e t n a m showed a marked d i f f e r e n c e f r o m t h e 1971 p r o -p o s a l i n t h a t i t d i d n o t d i r e c t l y a s k t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o remove P r e s -i d e n t T h i e u n o r d i d i t r e p e a t the e a r l i e r demand f o r a new a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 97 i n S a i g o n p r i o r t o n e g o t a t i o n s w i t h t h e PRG. Thus, i f T h i e u r e s i g n e d and t h e r e s t o f the S a i g o n government c o u l d somehow be c o n v i n c e d to a l t e r T h i e u ' s p o l i c i e s i n t h e f a s h i o n s u g g e s t e d by t h e PRG,, t h e PRG w o u l d t h e n d i s c u s s the manner i n w h i c h a " t h r e e component" c o a l i t i o n gov-ernment c o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d w h i c h w o u l d s e t up and s u p e r v i s e f a i r e l e c -t i o n s i n the S o u t h . The change o f t h e NLF/PRG's and the DRV's a t t i t u d e toward the make-up and p u r p o s e o f a c o a l i t i o n government, i n Saigon, was f i r s t h i n t e d 98 a t i n 1969. I n t h e May, 1969 T e n - P o i n t O v e r a l l S o l u t i o n p r e s e n t e d by T r a n Buu Kiem o f t h e NLF a t t h e 1 6 t h P l e n a r y s e s s i o n , o f t h e P a r i s t a l k s , he s a i d : The South V i e t n a m NLF s u p p o r t s t h e s t r u g g l e o f the u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n i n South V i e t n a m f o r t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f T h i e u , Ky,. Huong f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t . o f , a peace c a b i n e t so as t o p r o m p t l y end:the w a r a n d r e s t o r e peace. I t i s r e a d y t o e n t e r i n t o t a l k s w i t h p e r s o n s o f g o o d w i l l who s t a n d f o r  p e a c e , independence, and n e u t r a l i t y . ^ (emphasis added) 70 Later, in the Eight-Point. Clarification of the 1969 Overall Solution presented at the 84th Plenary session of the Paris.Conference on September 17, 1970, Point Five of the declaration was even more.specific in regards to accommodation with, various elements of the Saigon.admin-istration. The plan for a "three component" provisional, coalition gov-ernment included.a.segment for "persons, from the Saigon administration who really stand for peace, independence, neutrality, and democracy. A l l proposals since the 1970 statement have again emphasized that mem-bers of the Saigon administration were to be part of a coalition. The importance of this attitude when compared with the NLF's i n i t i a l claim to be'the "sole legal representative of South Vietnam" cannot be over-emphasized. To date, no publicly declared alternative to the PRG's suggested format for a coalition, tas examined above, has been offered by the Saigon government which is why the emphasis here has been placed on the PRG's concept of coalition. As indicated earlier, President Thieu i s violently opposed to the idea of coalition, an attitude he has expressed in his ultimatum of 1971—"the Four No's"— no coalition government, no communist activity, no concession of territory, no neutrality. Because Thieu has refused to even consider the idea of a coalition, however, the PRG's coalition formula has gained even more support from the opposition forces in South Vietnam.. Undoubtedly, various of the "third force" groups have privately offered their own.ideas for a coalition government, but the only South Vietnamese group which.is safe making such suggestions (aside from the PRG) is the Paris expatriate.community. The ina b i l i t y of the opposition to openly.discuss their own ideas 71 about ways t o accommodate t h e NLF/PRG. has g r e a t l y i n h i b i t e d t h e d e v e l o p -ment o f a s t r o n g , " m i d d l e " group i n S o u t h Vietnamese p o l i t i c s which'.rwould be c a p a b l e o f b a l a n c i n g t h e o t h e r two o p p o s i n g g r o u p s . Thus w h i l e the p r e s e n c e o f a s t r o n g h i s t o r i c a l a p p r e c i a t i o n o f t h e c o n c e p t o f c o a l i t i o n and compromise i s f a v o u r a b l e to the i n t e r n a l a c c e p t a n c e o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n South V i e t n a m , t h e c u r r e n t predominance o f t h e NLF/PRG con c e p t o f a c o a l i t i o n f o r t h e f u t u r e has o f f e r e d major o b s t a c l e s a f f e c t -i n g t h e p o s s i b l e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government — p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r t h e key e x t e r n a l p a r t y , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . 72 THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT U n i t e d S ta tes p o l i c i e s i n Vietnam are one of the key determinants o f the c u r r e n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l enviornment a f f e c t i n g the p o s s i b l e e s t a b -l i s h m e n t of a c o a l i t i o n government i n S a i g o n . The o t h e r two key e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s are R u s s i a and C h i n a . A b r i e f rev iew of the h i s t o r i c a l na ture of the commitment of these e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n Vie tnam, as w e l l as the n a t u r e o f t h e i r present p o l i c i e s , i s necessary i n o r d e r to p l a c e i n p e r s p e c t i v e a l l of the e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s i m p i n g i n g on the e s -tab l i s h ment of a c o a l i t i o n . I t i s not p o s s i b l e w i t h i n the scope of t h i s paper to thoroughly t r e a t such c o m p l i c a t i o n s as the impact of the S i n o - S o v i e t d i s p u t e on the Vietnam war , and the h i s t o r y of the U n i t e d S ta tes involvement i n I n d o c h i n a . These s u b j e c t s have been t r e a t e d i n l e n g t h elsewhere and the f o l l o w i n g a n a l y s i s consequent ly w i l l merely attempt to s y n t h e s i z e the impor tant f a c t o r s r e l a t i n g to e x t e r n a l i n -f l u e n c e s on the Vietnam war . A . S o v i e t Union The S o v i e t U n i o n ' s major commitment to Vietnam has been through support of the DRV. This support has not been c o n s i s t e n t . R u s s i a d i d not even r e c o g n i z e the DRV u n t i l 1950, more than f o u r years a f t e r i t s c r e a t i o n , and d i d not send an o f f i c i a l m i s s i o n to Hanoi u n t i l a f t e r the Geneva:Accords i n 1954. At the Geneva conference i t s e l f , R u s s i a he lped coerce Ho C h i Minh i n t o a c c e p t i n g l e s s than he h a d a a n t i c i p a t e d . The S o v i e t l e a d e r s were preoccupied w i t h o t h e r concerns a t the t ime i n Europe and d i d not w i s h to c l a s h w i t h the US over I n d o c h i n a . 73 U n t i l 1960, R u s s i a n n o n - m i l i t a r y a i d t o t h e DRV was e s t i m a t e d a t about $350 m i l l i o n , h a l f o f t h e C h i n e s e c o n t r i b u t i o n . 1 0 1 By 1960, however, S o v i e t p o l i c y t o w a r d V i e t n a m underwent r e v i s i o n , and t h e S o v i e t c o n t r i b u t i o n ( s p u r r e d by t h e S i n o - S o v i e t d i s p u t e ) n o t o n l y s u r p a s s e d t h e C h i n e s e c o n t r i b u t i o n , b u t r e p r e s e n t e d o n e / h a l f t h e a i d r e c e i v e d by t h e DRV. A b r u p t l y , however, K r u s c h e v began t o r e c o n -s i d e r h i s p o l i c y toward V i e t n a m d u r i n g t h e L a o t i a n c r i s i s and by t h e t i m e o f t h e G u l f o f T o n k i n a f f a i r i n 1964, S o v i e t condemnations of t h e US' m ounting i n v o l v e m e n t i n V i e t n a m were f o r m a l and d i s c r e t e . W i t h t h e f a l l o f K r u s c h e v , S o v i e t p o l i c y toward V i e t n a m a g a i n u nder-went r e v i s i o n and S o v i e t P r e m i e r K o s y g i n ' s v i s i t t o H a n o i i n Feb-r u a r y , 1965 i n d i c a t e d t h e new o r d e r o f p r i o r i t i e s i n Moscow. R u s s i a n a i d t o t h e DRV s i n c e t h a t t i m e has n e v e r f a l l e n below $250 m i l l i o n 102 a y e a r , and i n . 1 9 6 9 , m i l i t a r y a i d a l o n e was e s t i m a t e d a t $1000 m i l l i o n . The S o v i e t U n i o n h a s , o f c o u r s e , o f f i c i a l l y s u p p o r t e d t h e p o s -i t i o n s o f t h e NLF/PRG and t h e DRV i n t h e V i e t n a m war. A t t h e same t i m e , Moscow has been c h i e f l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h i n s u r i n g t h a t t h e c o n f l i c t 103 does n o t g e t o u t o f hand and i n v o l v e t h e R u s s i a n s i n a n u c l e a r war. She e q u a l l y has d e s i r e d t o r e a c h a c c o r d s w i t h t h e US on arms c o n t r o l , t r a d e , and q u e s t i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o Europe. The S o v i e t U n i o n has t h e r e f o r e g e n e r a l l y f a v o u r e d n e g o t i a t i o n s between the PRG, H a n o i and t h e US t o end t h e war. An end o f t h e war would a l s o be a b l o w , f r o m t h e R u s s i a n s t a n d p o i n t , t o t h e Chinese communist propaganda l i n e , d i r e c t e d t o w a r d A s i a n communist movements, o f a c o n t i n u o u s and c o n -s t a n t l y w i d e n i n g r e v o l u t i o n a r y movement'of backward c o u n t r i e s a g a i n s t A A 1 0 4 more.advanced ones. 74 The i n c o n s i s t e n c y i n t h e R u s s i a n commitment t o h e r V i e t n a m e s e a l l i e s can be f u r t h e r seen i n t h e n a t u r e o f h e r s u p p o r t o f t h e N o r t h V i e t n a m e s e o f f e n s i v e o f 1972. Though she had e a r l i e r made i n c r e a s e d m i l i t a r y s u p p o r t a v a i l a b l e t o t h e IRV, Moscow has d e n i e d H a n o i t h e t y p e of weapons w h i c h w o u l d have e n s u r e d h e r a g r e a t e r d e g r e e of 105 s u c c e s s i n t h e 1972 o f f e n s i v e . R u s s i a has a l s o made known h e r d i s a p p r o v a l o f t h e t i m i n g o f t h e o f f e n s i v e w h i c h she had a p p a r e n t l y a d v i s e d a g a i n s t . The R u s s i a n s t a t e m e n t . f o l l o w i n g t h e announcement of t h e b l o c k a d e o f N o r t h V i e t n a m e s e h a r b o r s was a p o l i t e r e p r i m a n d t o b o t h the U n i t e d S t a t e s and H a n o i : The problems of I n d o c h i n a cannot be r e s o l v e d . . . b y f u r t h e r e s c a l a t i o n o f a g g r e s s i v e a c t i o n s . . . . The o n l y r e a l i s t i c way o f r e s o l v i n g t h e V i e t n a m e s e p r o b l e m i s t o r e s p e c t t h e r i g h t o f t h e V i e t n a m e s e p e o p l e t o d e t e r m i n e i t s d e s t i n y w i t h o u t o u t s i d e i n t e r f e r e n c e and p r e s s u r e . I f t h e US i s r e a l l y r e a d y t o do s o , i t s h o u l d r e t u r n t o t h e n e g o t i a t i n g t a b l e i n P a r i s . lub N i x o n ' s v i s i t t o R u s s i a i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g h i s announcement of t h e b l o c k a d e i n d i c a t e s t h a t , as t h e F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review s u g g e s t s , " t h e A m e r i c a n s and thS S o v i e t s have s e t t l e d down t o c o m p e t i t i v e c o - e x i s t e n c e . " " ^ 7 And as H e l e n e d'Encausse p o i n t s out i n Le Monde D i p l o m a t i q u e , "Vietnam i l l u s t r a t e s b o t h t h e l i m i t s o f t h e p o l i c y of c o - e x i s t e n c e and t h e p r i o r i t y t h i s p o l i c y has i n 108 t h e USSR s t r a t e g y . " The S o v i e t U n i o n ' s c u r r e n t p o l i c y v i s a v i s V i e t n a m , t h e r e f o r e , i s u n l i k e l y t o i n f l u e n c e H a n o i ' s d e c i s i o n s one way o r t h e o t h e r n o r i s i t l i k e l y t h a t Moscow can a c t as a m e d i a t o r , H a n o i b e i n g r a t h e r d u b i o u s of R u s s i a n a d v i c e a f t e r t h e 1954 e x p e r i e n c e . A t t h e same 75 t i m e , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , w h i c h i s p r e o c c u p i e d w i t h i n t e r e s t s e l s e -where, w i l l u n d o u b t e d l y a c c e p t any s o l u t i o n w h i c h meets t h e s a t -i s f a c t i o n o f t h e ERG and H a n o i . B. C h i n a C h i n a has a l s o had a somewhat ambiguous commitment t o V i e t n a m . L i k e R u s s i a , C h i n a a l s o w a i t e d u n t i l a d i r e c t . a p p e a l f r o m Ho C h i Minh i n J a n u a r y , 1950 b e f o r e i t g r a n t e d o f f i c i a l r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e DRV. C h i n a was e q u a l l y p a r t y t o t h e b a c k - s t a g e c o e r c i o n o f Ho C h i Minh a t t h e Geneva C o n f e r e n c e i n 1954. Y e t , w h i l e C h i n a may have i n i t i a l l y s u s p e c t e d a t t h e t i m e o f D i e n B i e n Phu t h a t H a n o i was n o t c a p a b l e o f w i n n i n g a " p e o p l e ' s war", when i t became c l e a r t h a t t h e DRV was g o i n g t o c o n t i n u e t h e f i g h t and t h a t i t even s t o o d a chance o f w i n n i n g i t , C h i n a threw i t s f u l l b a c k i n g b e h i n d t h e N o r t h 109 V i e t n a m e s e . L i k e R u s s i a , t h e r e f o r e , i t s major commitment t o V i e t n a m has been t h r o u g h s u p p o r t o f t h e DRV. P r i o r t o 1965, C h i n e s e a i d s u r p a s s e d t h a t o f R u s s i a and i n 1967, was e s t i m a t e d a t about $215 m i l l i o n a y e a r . 1 1 0 C h i n a ' s a i d has n e v e r s u r p a s s e d $250 m i l l i o n a y e a r y - ^ h o w e v e r , 1 1 1 b u t i t has made an army o f e n g i n e e r s a v a i l a b l e f o r r e p a i r s i n N o r t h V i e t n a m s i n c e t h e US began bombing t h e N o r t h h e a v i l y i n 1965. The C h i n e s e l e a d e r s c l a i m t h a t s u p p o r t of N o r t h V i e t n a m i s a " c a r d i n a l p r i n c i p l e " o f C h i n e s e p o l i c y , b u t i t a l s o a p p ears t h a t t h e C h i n e s e a r e somewhat r e l u c t a n t t o see N o r t h V i e t n a m e x t e n d i t s 112 i n f l u e n c e , p o s s i b l y a t t h e expense o f C h i n a , t h r o u g h o u t I n d o c h i n a . C h i n a has a l s o been d i s c r e t e l y c r i t i c a l o f t h e DRV/NLF war s t r a t e g y 76 s i n c e i t b e l i e v e d t h a t a " p r o t r a c t e d c o n f l i c t " was t h e b e s t c o u r s e 113 t o f o l l o w . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , C h i n a h a s , a c c o r d i n g t o some s o u r c e s , a l s o been d i s p l e a s e d w i t h the 1972 o f f e n s i v e w h i c h changed f r o m a g u e r r i l l a s t r a t e g y t o one of open i n v a s i o n and c o n v e n t i o n a l b a t t l e 114 t a c t i c s u s i n g t a n k s and heavy arms. The n a t u r e o f C h i n a ' s commitment.to t h e DRV m i g h t , i n l i g h t o f t h e above, be b e s t termed " r e a l i s t i c . " C h i n a does n o t i n t e n d f o r t h e V i e t n a m q u e s t i o n t o change t h e iew t r e n d i n US-Chinese r e l a t i o n s n o r does she i n t e n d t o abandon t h e DRV."'"''""' A h o s t i l e N o r t h V i e t n a m , pushed i n t o R u s s i a n arms, would be dangerous t o C h i n a ' s i n t e r e s t s and t r a d i t i o n a l b o r d e r ' c o n c e r n s . No l e s s i m p o r t a n t , C h i n a w o u l d s i n c e r e l y l i k e t o see a " p e o p l e ' s w a r " s s u c c e e d , e s p e c i a l l y one w h i c h w o u l d h u m i l i a t e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . However, t h i s c o n c e r n i s n o t on t h e t o p o f C h i n a ' s l i s t o f p r i o r i t i e s w h i c h i s e v i d e n t i n h e r r e f u s a l t o a l l o w t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , w h i c h n o r m a l l y t r a n s p o r t s most of i t s a i d t o t h e DRV i n s h i p s , t o i n c r e a s e t h e s u p p l i e s s e n t v i a t h e T r a n s - S i b e r i a n r a i l w a y s i n c e t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e 1972 blockade.''''''0 The f a c t t h a t C h i n a i s p r e s e n t l y more c o n c e r e n e d w i t h o u t -maneuvering t h e R u s s i a n s i n t h e SLno-Soviet d i s p u t e t h a n a c t i n g i n . th e b e s t i n t e r e s t o f t h e DRV, as w e l l as h e r i n v i t a t i o n t o N i x o n t o v i s i t P e k i n g i n s p i t e o f i n c r e a s e d US e s c a l a t i o n o f t h e war, have n o t escaped t h e c r i t i c a l n o t i c e o f N o r t h V i e t n a m . H a n o i i s j u s t as u n l i k e l y t o a c c e p t a d v i c e f r o m P e k i n g as she i s f r o m Moscow. But C h i n a , w h i c h o b j e c t e d t o the s t a r t o f the DRV-US n e g o t i a t i o n s i n 77 P a r i s , has now a p p a r e n t l y dropped h e r o p p o s i t i o n t o a n e g o t i a t e d s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e V i e t n a m w a r . 1 1 7 T h i s change o f a t t i t u d e a t l e a s t , p r o v i d e s a s a t i s f a c t o r y i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t as f a r as b o t h t h e DRV's a l l i e s a r e c o n c e r n e d , w h i c h f a v o u r s a s e t t l e m e n t of t h e war. C h i n a w i l l most p r o b a b l y be s a t i s f i e d w i t h any s o l -u t i o n t o t h e c o n f l i c t a c c e p t e d by t h e DRV and the PRG. C. The U n i t e d S t a t e s The US commitment t o South V i e t n a m -has been more d i r e c t and more c o s t l y t h a n e i t h e r C h i n a or R u s s i a ' s commitment to t h e DRV. I t has a l s o been a commitment w h i c h was c o n s i d e r e d o f paramount i m p o r t a n c e i n . f o r e i g n p o l i c y c o n c e r n s o f two US a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s . Commitment o t S a i g o n , however, was e s t a b l i s h e d as e a r l y as 1950 when t h e US o f f i c i a l l y r e c o g n i z e d t h e government of Bao D a i as t h e l e g i t i m a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e V i e t n a m e s e p e o p l e . By 1954, t h e US was u n d e r w r i t i n g 80 p e r c e n t of t h e F r e n c h war e f f o r t a g a i n s t 118 t h e V i e t Minh. F o l l o w i n g t h e Geneva A c c o r d s i n 1954 ( w h i c h t h e US n e v e r c o n s i d e r e d s a t i s f a c t o r y and d i d n o t s i g n though i t p r o m i s e d t o honor them), t h e US s p e n t more t h a n $100 b i l l i o n u n t i l 1968 t r y i n g t o p r e s e r v e t h e S o u t h V i e t n a m e s e government. The US t r o o p commitment r o s e from 327 m i l i t a r y a d v i s e r s i n 1960 t o 543,000 comb-b a t and s u p p o r t t r o o p s i n 1968. The US commitment t o South V i e t n a m has a l s o i n c l u d e d d i r e c t , though g e n e r a l l y c o v e r t , i n v o l v e m e n t i n South V i e t n a m e s e p o l i t i c s . T h i s i n v o l v e m e n t has i n c l u d e d e v e r y t h i n g f r o m t h e t a c i t a p p r o v a l g i v e n by t h e Kennedy a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n 1963 t o t h e o v e r t h r o w o f P r e s i d e n t Diem, t o t h e " a r m - t w i s t i n g " used by t h e J o h n s o n admin-78 i s t r a t i o n on P r e s i d e n t T h i e u t o f o r c e him t o t h e n e g o t i a t i n g t a b l e . The A m e r i c a n Embassy i n S a i g o n has a l s o been t h e main f o r c e b e h i n d c o n s t i t u e n t assembly e l e c t i o n s as w e l l as t h e P r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n s o f 1967 and 1 9 7 1 . 1 1 9 The e s s e n c e o f A m e r i c a n p o l i c y i n V i e t n a m had been t o e n s u r e a m i l i t a r y v i c t o r y a g a i n s t t h e communist f o r c e s . F o r t h i s r e a s o n t h e US had, s i n c e 1955, r e j e c t e d t h e i d e a o f n e g o t i a t i n g w i t h t h e "enemy". From 1965-1968, a p e r i o d w h i c h saw t h e major e s c a l a t i o n o f the war e f f o r t i n terms o f t r o o p commitment and l o s s o f A m e r i c a n l i v e s , t h e J o h n s o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n made s e v e r a l e f f o r t s t o b e g i n n e g o t i a t i o n s , b u t alw a y s w i t h major q u a l i f i c a t i o n s a t t a c h e d as p r i o r c o n d i t i o n s . Johnson's d e c i s i o n f o l l o w i n g t h e T e t o f f e n s i v e i n 1968 t o b e g i n n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h t h e DRV was e s s e n t i a l l y a r e c o g n i t i o n by h i s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t h a t m i l i t a r y v i c t o r y was n o t p o s s i b l e i n V i e t n a m . P r e s i d e n t N i x o n , e l e c t e d on a. p l e d g e t o end t h e war i n V i e t n a m , has f o l l o w e d a d u a l c o u r s e t o end t h e war. H i s p o l i c i e s were o u t l i n e d i n t h e Guam D o c t r i n e as a d i p l o m a t i c e f f o r t on t h e one hand (nego-t i a t i o n s ) , and a m i l i t a r y e f f o r t on t h e o t h e r ( V i e t n a m i z a t i o n ) . I n th e n e g o t i a t i o n c h a n n e l , N i x o n ' s main c o n c e r n has been the p r e s e r -v a t i o n o f t h e S a i g o n government. T h i s p o i n t has been e v i d e n t i n a l l f o u r o f h i s m a j o r "Peace P l a n s " o f f e r e d as p u b l i c n e g o t a t i o n p r o p o s a l s s i n c e 1969 (see A p p e n d i x 1)1 - Each o f t h e s e peace p r o p o s a l s has been c o n s t r u c t e d so t h a t t h e Saigon government w i l l m a i n t a i n c o n t r o l o f 79 t h e p o l i c e and e l e c t i o n a p p a r a t u s . The US p o s i t i o n on o t h e r i s s u e s ( s u c h as c o m p l e t e US w i t h d r a w a l ) has a l t e r e d c o n s i d e r a b l y as an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e f o u r p l a n s i n d i c a t e s , b u t t h e c e n t r a l US demand t h a t t h e S a i g o n regime r e m a i n i n t a c t h a s , p u b l i c l y a t l e a s t , remained unchanged. P r e s i d e n t N i x o n ' s p l a n o f May 8, 1972 does n o t m e n t i o n p o l i t i c a l i s s u e s a t a l l : i t m e r e l y c a l l s f o r a r e t u r n o f t h e p r i s -o n e r s and an i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y s u p e r v i s e d c e a s e f i r e i n exchange f o r a c o m p l e t e US w i t h d r a w a l i n f o u r months. The May 8, 1972 peace plan d e a l i n g o n l y w i t h m i l i t a r y i s s u e s u n d e r l i n e s t h e f a c t t h a t t h e second p a t h o f the N i x o n (Guam) D o c t r i n e 120 has r e c e i v e d t h e r e a l p r i o r i t y i n N i x o n ' s p o l i c i e s s i n c e h i s e l e c t i o n . N i x o n ' s a c t i o n s , f r o m t h e i n v a s i o n s o f Cambodia and Laos t o t h e b l o c k -ade o f H a n o i and H a iphong, have a l s o i n d i c a t e d t h a t N i x o n has n o t e n t i r e l y r e j e c t e d t h e hope t h a t m i l i t a r y measures can w i n t h e war i n V i e t n a m . H i s d e s i r e f o r v i c t o r y has been c o n t i n u a l l y emphasized i n v a r i o u s p u b l i c a d d r e s s e s : "We w i l l n o t be h u m i l i a t e d , we w i l l 121 n o t be d e f e a t e d . " The r e a l key t o V i e t n a m i z a t i o n , i n f a c t , i s n o t t u r n i n g t h e war o v e r t o t h e V i e t n a m e s e , b u t c o n v e r t i n g A m e r i c a n m i l i t a r y commitments f r o m ground f o r c e s t o a i r and n a v a l s u p p o r t of ground t r o o p s . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e New Y o r k Times, t h i s i s t h e e s s e n c e 122 o f t h e N i x o n D o c t r i n e f o r A s i a as a w h ole. Thus, w h i l e t h e US t r o o p l e v e l i n V i e t n a m w i l l be c u t t o an e s t i m a t e d 29,000 by December 123 1972, US t r o o p s i n c l u d i n g p e r s o n n e l i n T h a i l a n d and a b o a r d a i r -c r a f t c a r r i e r s o f f t h e c o a s t o f V i e t n a m who a r e now a c t i v e l y engaged 124 i n a i r and n a v a l combat f o r t h e V i e t n a m war have c l i m b e d t o 125,000. 80 The V i e t n a m i z a t i o n program, a c c o r d i n g t o many a n a l y s e s 7S i s now 125 i n shambles. I n s p i t e o f s t a t e m e n t s t o t h e c o n t r a r y f r o m t h e W h i t e House, N i x o n a p p a r e n t l y hopes t o open up t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s c h a n n e l as an a l t e r n a t e p r e - e l e c t i o n e f f o r t t o r e a c h a s e t t l e m e n t . Henry K i s s i n g e r , N i x o n ' s a d v i s e r on n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y , was under t h e a s s u m p t i o n i n May t h a t t h e communist s i d e m ight a p p r o v e . o f N i x o n ' s May 8 p r o p o s a l s s i n c e " i t has now p r o v e d i t s m i l i t a r y c a p a c i t y t o a p o i n t where i t 126 c o u l d a f f o r d a p u r e l y m i l i t a r y s o l u t i o n . " T h i s a p p r o v a l has n o t been f o r t h c o m i n g n o r , a p p a r e n t l y , can i t be e x p e c t e d . Whether N i x o n and K i s s i n g e r p l a n f u r t h e r changes i n t h e US p o l i c y i n l i g h t o f t h i s f a c t i s a m a t t e r o f s p e c u l a t i o n a t t h e t i m e o f w r i t i n g . I t i s p o s s i b l e t o s a y , however, t h a t j u d g i n g f r o m N i x o n ' s o v e r a l l " g l o b a l " s t r a t e g y w h i c h has emphasized " c o o p e r a t i v e " c o m p e t i t i o n be-tween t h e w o r l d powers, N i x o n i s p r o b a b l y t r y i n g t o seek a s e t t l e m e n t w h i c h w o u l d f u r t h e r encourage t h e d e t e n t e he has a c h i e v e d w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and C h i n a i n t h e s p r i n g o f 1972* A f u r t h e r i n c e n t i v e t o the US t o seek a s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e war i s t h e economic c o s t of c o n t i n u i n g t h e war a t t h e p r e s e n t l e v e l . Due t o t h e r e s u m p t i o n o f heavy bombing o f N o r t h V i e t n a m and o t h e r a i r and n a v a l a c t i v i t y ( w h i c h N i x o n has s t a t e d w i l l n o t be d i s c o n t i n u e d u n t i l t h e DRV p u l l s i t s t r o o p s b a c k ) , t h e t o t a l c o s t of m a i n t a i n i n g t h e war e f f o r t i n f i s c a l y e a r 1972 i s e s t i m a t e d a t $7.1 b i l l i o n , $1.1 b i l l i o n 127 h i g h e r t h a n o r i g i n a l l y e s t i m a t e d i n J a n u a r y , 1972. S i n c e t h e b e s t r e s u l t o f a l l t h i s e x p e n d i t u r e has o n l y p r o d u c e d a m i l i t a r y s t a l e m a t e , N i x o n u n d o u b t e d l y w o u l d p r e f e r t o t e r m i n a t e t h e war as soon as p o s s i b l e . 81 N i x o n ' s p r e f e r e n c e f o r c e r t a i n s o l u t i o n s r a t h e r t h a n o t h e r s as a means t o end t h e war, appear t o be l a r g e l y based on a p e r s o n a l c o n c e p t i o n o f how t o end t h e war " h o n o r a b l y " . H i s p r o p o s a l s have i n d i c a t e d t h a t e i t h e r a m i l i t a r y s e t t l e m e n t w h i c h i n c l u d e d a c e a s e -f i r e and a r e t u r n o f A m e r i c a n p r i s o n e r s a l o n g w i t h t o t a l US w i t h -d r a w a l f r o m I n d o c h i n a , o r a p o l i t i c a l s e t t l e m e n t w h i c h l e f t t h e T h i e u government i n t a c t t o r u n t h e e l e c t i o n s t o be h e l d s i x months f o l l o w i n g an agreement, a r e t h e o n l y two p o s s i b i l i t i e s w h i c h meet t h i s c r i t e r i o n . A c c e p t i n g the PRG's s u g g e s t e d c o a l i t i o n government, t h e r e f o r e , w o u l d n o t o n l y be a " f a l s e " peace f r o m N i x o n ' s p o i n t o f v i e w , b u t w o u l d a l s o p r o v i d e t h e US o p p o s i t i o n w i t h t h e s a t i s f a c t i o n o f s e e i n g i t s g o a l s f u l f i l l e d . Under t h e N i x o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , a,compromise s o l u t i o n t o t h e war w o u l d most l i k e l y t r y t o a v o i d g i v i n g t h e PRG any degree o f p o l i t i c a l c o n t r o l i n t h e c e n t r a l government, o r a t l e a s t c o n t r o l w i t h o v e r t US a p p r o v a l . Some c o v e r t accommodation w i t h t h e PRG, however, i s n o t beyond t h e r e a l m o f p o s s i b i l i t y . The above a n a l y s i s has d w e l t on t h e p o l i c i e s of t h e t h r e e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n the V i e t n a m war. O b v i o u s l y , none o f t h e s e p a r t i e s o p e r a t e s i n a vacuum. Each p a r t y has a number o f f a c t o r s w h i c h i n f l u e n c e i t s c o u r s e o f a c t i o n i n V i e t n a m , n o t t h e l e a s t o f w h i c h a r e t h e r e l a t i o n s between the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s them-s e l v e s . The h o s t i l i t y between R u s s i a and C h i n a has had e f f e c t s of v a r y i n g s i g n i f i c a n c e on t h e outcome o f t h e war. I n one s e n s e , as i n d i c a t e d , t h e S i n o - S o v i e t d i s p u t e has encouraged a s e t t l e m e n t i n I n d o c h i n a s i n c e R u s s i a i n p a r t i c u l a r w o u l d p r e f e r t o l i m i t t h e e x t e n t 82 o f C h i n e s e i n f l u e n c e i n South E a s t A s i a . I n a n o t h e r s e n s e , t h e S i n o - S o v i e t d i s p u t e has harmed t h e DRV/PRG war e f f o r t , i n t h e S o u t h , w i t n e s s e d e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e 1972 o f f e n s i v e . The c h a n g i n g r e l a t i o n s between the US and C h i n a and t h e US and R u s s i a w i l l p r o b a b l y be t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t o f t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t y i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p s s i n c e R u s s i a and C h i n a a r e f a c i n g i n c r e a s e d p r e s s u r e f r o m t h e US t o l i m i t t h e i r a i d t o t h e DRV and t o seek a s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e war. The i n c r e a s e d i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r e s s u r e s on N o r t h V i e t n a m t o seek a compromise s e t t l e m e n t appear t o have had l i t t l e a f f e c t up t o t h e t i m e of w r i t i n g . There i s s t i l l no s i g n t h a t H a n o i i s w i l l i n g t o s e t t l e f o r a n y t h i n g l e s s t h a n i t s s t a t e d d e m a n d — th e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a c o a l i t i o n government i n t h e South. Whether t h e i n c r e a s i n g l y p r o p i t i o u s i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t s u r r o u n d i n g V i e t n a m w i l l sway t h e l e a d e r s h i p i n H a n o i s h o u l d , a c c o r d i n g t o r e p o r t s , be e v i d e n t by t h e c l o s e of 1972. 83 CHAPTER III Factors Impinging on the Establishment.and Successful.Operation of a Coalition Government in South Vietnam In attempting, to consider whether the conditions which are supportive of the establishment of a.coalition government are li k e l y ' to exist in.the near future in South Vietnam, i t is important to f i r s t reiterate that the only assumptions made in this study about the "nature" of a possible coalition are that the coalition be one which w i l l approximately reflect the internal balance.of forces and which w i l l be considered an acceptable solution from the Vietnamese standpoint as a means to end the armed conflict. Such a solution may very well not meet the standards of a "western" conception of a coalition government, nor be more than a temporary solution which could eventually lead to a government commited to communism and union with the North. These probablilities, in any.;case, cannot be precluded from any li k e l y conclusion to the war. The creation of a coalition government by international accords in Cyprus and Laos was.described earlier in terms of those supportive factors related to the relations of the external parties in world po l i t i c s and to the nature of their policies in a domestic government, and those supportive factors related to the nature of the internal groups. The key external factor in both cases was the alignment of outside parties in world p o l i t i c s . Membership in the NATO alliance, in the case of Cyprus, was considered more important than warfare over Cyprus. In the Laos case, the outside parties, while members of moderately competitive alliances, were also willing to avoid a major confrontation because of other p r i o r i t i e s . 84 The c u r r e n t a l i g n m e n t o f o u t s i d e . p a r t i e s i n t h e case o f S o u t h V i e t n a m d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r , however, i s somewhat more complex t h a n e i t h e r t h a t , o f Laos o r Cyprus. The U n i t e d . S t a t e s i s . c u r r e n t l y en-gaged i n p u r s u i n g what may be termed " c o o p e r a t i v e " c o m p e t i t i o n i n some a r e a s w i t h b o t h R u s s i a and C h i n a . The l a t t e r two e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s , however, a r e engaged i n " h o s t i l e " c o m p e t i t i o n between them-s e l v e s . B o t h t h e emerging U S - R u s s i a and US-China r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and t h e c o n t i n u i n g R u s s i a - C h i n a c o m p e t i t i o n , , h a v e appeared t o s t r e n g t h e n N o r t h Vietnam's d e t e r m i n a t i o n n o t t o a c c e p t a f o r c e d i n t e r n a t i o n a l s e t t l e m e n t on V i e t n a m . H a n o i u n d o u b t e d l y sees t h e two d i r e c t i o n s o f e x t e r n a l p a r t y a l i g n m e n t as d e t r i m e n t a l t o h e r own i n t e r e s t s and . t h i s b e l i e f means t h a t f o r t h e t i m e b e i n g , t h e i m p a c t o f t h e U S - R u s s i a , US-China d e t e n t e w i l l p r o b a b l y be n u l l i f i e d i n r e g a r d s to s e c u r i n g a s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e V i e t n a m war u n t i l H a n o i d e c i d e s t o compromise. Because the e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n V i e t n a m . a r e n o t , t h e n , i n a p o s i t i o n (as t h e y were i n t h e c a s e o f Cyprus f o r example) t o n e g o t i a t e a s e t t l e m e n t w i t h -o u t t h e a p p r o v a l o f H a n o i (and t h e PRG), the a l i g n m e n t o f o u t s i d e p a r t i e s i n V i e t n a m i s n o t t h e key e x t e r n a l f a c t o r a f f e c t i n g the p o s s i b l e e s t a b -l i s h m e h t o o f a a c e o a l i ' t i b n g g o vernment j . i n ^ S a i g o n . The second e x t e r n a l c r i t e r i o n e s t a b l i s h e d on t h e l i s t o f C h a p t e r I , the a l i g n m e n t o f a s t r o n g e r e x t e r n a l p a r t y w i t h one o f t h e d i s p u t i n g i n t e r n a l p a r t i e s , assumes p a r t i c u l a r s i g n i f i c a n c e i n the c a s e o f South Vietnam. The i m p o r t a n c e o f t h i s f a c t o r was seen i n b o t h t h e case s t u d i e s o f Cyprus and L a o s . The weaker i n t e r n a l p a r t y i n C y p r u s , the T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s , g r e a t l y s t r e n g t h e n e d i t s p o s i t i o n b e c a u s e o f t h e b a c k i n g o f T u r k e y . I n L a o s , the s u p p o r t o f b o t h the US on t h e one hand, and 85 R u s s i a and N o r t h V i e t n a m on t h e o t h e r , s t r e n g t h e n e d b o t h t h e r e c i p i e n t f a c t i o n s c o n s i d e r a b l y , though DRV t r o o p commitment to t h e P a t h e t Lao soon o u t w e i g h e d US a i d t o the P h o u m i s t s . The e x t e r n a l / i n t e r n a l a l i g n m e n t o f p a r t i e s i n So u t h V i e t n a m i s a g a i n more c o m p l i c a t e d t h a n t h a t o f the two case s t u d i e s . F i r s t l y , t he p o l i t i c a l p o s i t i o n o f the NLF i s much s t r o n g e r t h a n was t h a t o f e i t h e r Cyprus o r Laos a t the t i m e o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s e t t l e m e n t s . I n C y p r u s , the T u r k i s h C y p r i o t s had f o r y e a r s been g r e a t l y outnumbered by t h e Greek C y p r i o t s . I n L a o s , t h e P a t h e t Lao were i n a much b e t t e r p o s i t i o n due t o the s t r e n g t h o f t h e i r p o s i t i o n on t h e b a t t l e f i e l d . They d i d n o t , however, have an e s t a b l i s h e d p o l i t i c a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i n t h e a r e a s t h a t t h e y c o n t r o l l e d . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e NLF has been s h a r i n g l o c a l p o l i t i c a l power i n South V i e t n a m a l m o s t c o n t i n u o u s l y i n some c a s e s , s i n c e t h e f i r s t I n d o c h i n a war (see maps pageii54) F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e NLF's c o n t r o l i n t h e c o u n t r y s i d e i s much more en-t r e n c h e d t h a n t h a t o f S a i g o n . 1 And w h i l e t h e NLF has n o t been, s h a r i n g n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l power, t h e new PRG has been r e c o g n i z e d , as mentionned e a r l i e r , as the o f f i c i a l government o f So u t h V i e t n a m by t w e n t y - f i v e c o u n t r i e s . The k ey t o the NLF's p o l i t i c a l s u c c e s s . d s , o f c o u r s e , due to t h e s u c c e s s o f i t s m i l i t a r y s t r u g g l e d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p t e r I I . H e r e i n l i e s t he i m p o r t a n c e o f o u t s i d e s u p p o r t o f i n t e r n a l a l l i e s f o r t h e r e i s l i t t l e doubt t h a t t h e r e a s o n t h e NLF has been so s u c c e s s f u l on t h e b a t t l e f i e l d s i n c e t h e l a t t e r h a l f o f t h e 1960's, i s because o f t h e s u p p o r t o f t h e DRV. The DRV's commitment t o {the NLF, backed by 86 R u s s i a n and C h i n e s e a i d , has e n a b l e d . t h e NLF t o n o t o n l y w i t h -s t a n d the expanded US a i r war under t h e N i x o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , b u t t o i n i t i a t e a p o w e r f u l o f f e n s i v e o f i t s own i n t h e s p r i n g o f 1972, u n d e r t h e g u i d a n c e o f the DRV's d i v i s i o n s . The S a i g o n government has a l s o g r e a t l y b e n e f i t e d f r o m the o u t s i d e s u p p o r t o f . i t s e x t e r n a l a l l y , the US. The d i r e c t i o n o f t h i s s u p p o r t , however, has been r a p i d l y c h a n g i n g s i n c e t h e b e g i n n i n g o f the N i x o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n towards a d e c r e a s e d l e v e l o f commitment. T h i s d e c r e a s e has been o n l y i n US t r o o p l e v e l s s i n c e t h e a i r war, as i n d i c a t e d , has been expanded c o n s i d e r a b l y ^ s i n c e 1969. Because the same p e r i o d has seen an i n c r e a s e d DRV commitment to i t s a l l y , however, t h e e x t e r n a l / i n t e r n a l a l i g n m e n t o f p a r t i e s i n V i e t n a m appears to be more or,.--less e q u a l i z e d a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e . I f the US i s w i l l i n g t o i n d e f i n i t e l y m a i n t a i n the t r e m e n d o u s ' c o s t o f a l a r g e a i r war i n S o u t h V i e t n a m , t h i s c u r r e n t s t a l e m a t e may c o n t i n u e f o r some t i m e . However, t h e o r e t i c a l l y a t l e a s t , t h i s s t a l e m a t e s h o u l d , as p o s t u l a t e d e a r l i e r , encourage a compromise s e t t l e m e n t g i v e n t h e i n c r e a s i n g l y f a v o u r a b l e i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t s u r r o u n d i n g V i e t n a m . An i n t e r n a t i o n a l compromise s e t t l e m e n t i n h e r e n t l y i m p l i e s t h a t a l l p a r t i e s must a c c e p t l e s s t h a n a t o t a l v i c t o r y f o r t h e i r a l l i e s ( e x t e r n a l c r i t e r i o n #3), however, and t h i s f a c t o r i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o b o t h t h e c h a n g i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v i r o n m e n t and t h e p o s i t i o n s o f i n d i v i d u a l e x t e r n a l p a r t y p o l i c i e s . The US demands f o r the p r e s e r -v a t i o n o f t h e T h i e u r e g i m e and the DRV demands f o r t h e a d o p t i o n o f the PRG's format !'V:for a c o a l i t i o n government, have been v i e w e d by b o t h s i d e s as e v i d e n c e t h a t the " o t h e r s i d e " i s demanding a ' t o t a l 87 p o l i t i c a l v i c t o r y . There a r e i n d i c a t i o n s , however, t h a t the US a t l e a s t i s b e g i n i n g , J t o c o n s i d e r p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r . e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e i r own " t y p e " o f c o a l i t i o n . None o f t h e s e p o s s i b i l i t i e s , w o u l d i n c l u d e c o n t i n u e d s u p p o r t o f P r e s i d e n t T h i e u , b u t t h e y a r e p o s s i b i l i t i e s w h i c h . a c c o r d i n g , t o .Seymour H e r s h o f t h e New Yo r k Times,. a r e now 2 under r e v i e w by P r e s i d e n t N i x o n and Mr. K i s s i n g e r . I t i s i m p o r t a n t , t h e r e f o r e , t o c o n s i d e r b o t h t h e p o s s i b l e "US-type"., c o a l i t i o n governments as w e l l as the "PRG-type" c o a l i t i o n governments w h i c h might be formed 3 g i v e n c e r t a i n c i r c u m s t a n c e s . B o t h " t y p e s " o f c o a l i t i o n governments c o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d t h r o u g h e i t h e r p r i v a t e "(accommodation between t h e Vietnamese them-s e l v e s ) o r p u b l i c c h a n n e l s , o r pe r h a p s a c o m b i n a t i o n o f b o t h . F o r example, i n the c h a n n e l o f p r i v a t e accommodation w i t h t h e NLF/PRG, one p o s s i b l e avenue l e a d i n g t o a c o a l i t i o n would be f o r - r t h e . g e n e r a l s b a c k i n g T h i e u t o f o r c e him t o r e s i g n . a n d t o t h e n w i d e n the r e p r e s e n -t a t i o n i n t h e government w i t h o u t i n c l u d i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f the PRG, b u t a l l o w i n g them t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e g e n e r a l e l e c t i o n s . The r e s u l t i n g c o a l i t i o n w o u l d be a "US-type" c o a l i t i o n ( i . e . a c c e p t a b l e t o the US). A n o t h e r p o s s i b i l i t y i n the c h a n n e l o f p r i v a t e accommo-d a t i o n w o u l d be the f o r c e d r e s i g n a t i o n o f T h i e u , f o l l o w i n g w h i c h a p r o v i s i o n a l c o a l i t i o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n m i ght be formed w h i c h w o u l d i n c l u d e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f the PRG. T h i s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n w o u l d j o i n t l y c o n t r o l t h e a p p a r a t u s f o r an e l e c t i o n and would be c o n s i d e r e d a "PRG-t y p e " c o a l i t i o n . The p u b l i c c h a n n e l towards, accommodation w i t h t h e PRG woul d have the same end r e s u l t s b u t woul d h o l d d i f f e r e n t r a m i f i c a t i o n s f o r t h e 88 US government. The f i r s t p o s s i b i l i t y w o u l d b e . f o r . . t h e US t o ask ( p u b l i c l y o r p r i v a t e l y ) T h i e u t o s t e p down and t o i n s i s t on a more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e government i n S a i g o n w i t h o u t PRG p a r t i c i p a t i o n b u t w i t h . a l l o w a n c e f o r them, t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n the e l e c t i o n s . T h i s w o u l d be a "US-type" c o a l i t i o n government b u t one w h i c h d i f f e r s f r o m the p o s s i b i l i t y . o f t h a t . e s t a b l i s h e d by p r i v a t e accommodation between Vietnamese i n t h a t the US would have t o b e a r the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f d i r e c t i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h e p o l i t i c a l make-up o f the government. A second p o s s i b i l i t y i n the p u b l i c c h a n n e l would be f o r the US t o agree t o w i t h d r a w a l l o f i t s t r o o p s f r o m V i e t n a m and.to end i t s s u p p o r t o f th e S a i g o n government, i n r e t u r n f o r Am e r i c a n p r i s o n e r s o f war. T h i s would l e a v e the v a r i o u s . f o r c e s i n V i e t n a m t o make t h e i r own p o l i t i c a l a rrangements b u t the US w o u l d p u b l i c l y a g r e e t o an i n t e r n a t i o n a l g u a r a n t e e o f t h e a c c o r d s r e a c h e d as p a r t o f t h e exchange. T h i s w o u l d most l i k e l y r e s u l t i n a "PRG-type" c o a l i t i o n c o n s i d e r i n g the p r e s e n t p o l a r i t y o f So u t h Vietnam's p o l i t i c a l groups as d e s c r i b e d i n C h a p t e r I I . These p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r t h e c r e a t i o n o f c e r t a i n " t y p e s " o f c o a l i t i o n s a r e n o t c l e a r - c u t , however, because v a r i a t i o n s o f e i t h e r " t y p e " a r e . p o s s i b l e a s . p a r t o f a compromise s e t t l e m e n t . The c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h w o u l d make some o f t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s more d e s i r a b l e t o the i n -t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s a r e d e t e r m i n e d by a complex network o f v a r i a b l e s . F o r example, the US m i g h t c o n s i d e r t h e c o s t o f t h e . c o n t i n u a t i o n o f the c u r r e n t m i l i t a r y s t a l e m a t e as a r e a s o n t o compromise ( e x t e r n a l c r i t e r i o n #4), o r b o t h t h e US and t h e PRG m i g h t be w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t a v e r s i o n o f t h e i r opponent's " t y p e " o f ' - - c o a l i t i o n i f the " t h i r d f o r c e " groups were c o n s i d e r e d s t r o n g enough t o m a i n t a i n t h e i r 89 independence. on t h e one hand, o r t o e n s u r e e v e n t u a l PRG p a r t i c i p a t i o n on t h e o t h e r . However,, as l o n g as the US c o n t i n u e s t o s u p p o r t P r e s i d e n t T h i e u , such a p o s i t i v e assessment o f the " t h i r d f o r c e " groups i s u n l i k e l y s i n c e the p o l i c i e s o f P r e s i d e n t . T h i e u h e l p a c c o u n t f o r t h e d i s o r g a n i z e d and weak s t a t e o f t h e " t h i r d f o r c e " g r o u p s . S i n c e the US under P r e s i d e n t . N i x o n , i s n o t l i k e l y t o cease s u p p o r t i n g T h i e u p r i o r to. a s e t t l e m e n t , t h e " t h i r d f o r c e " groups w i l l have l i t t l e o r no ti m e t o r e o r g a n i z e t h e m s e l v e s and s t r e n g t h e n t h e i r p o s i t i o n . Thus, a t t h e . p r e s e n t t i m e , n e i t h e r t h e US o r the PRG appears l i k e l y t o a c c e p t t h e i r opponent's " t y p e " o f c o a l i t i o n . A s i t u a t i o n w h i c h w o u l d r e q u i r e t h a t b o t h t h e PRG and.the US a l t e r t h e i r demands and a c c e p t a . m o d i f i e d " t y p e " o f t h e i r . p r o p o s a l s would r e s u l t i f t h e i n t e r n a l groups i n Sou t h V i e t n a m moved on t h e i r own t o f o r c e T h i e u and.the g e n e r a l s b a c k i n g h im t o s t e p down ( i n t e r n a l c r i t e r i ' b n n # l ) . T h i s i s a r e l a t i v e l y u n l i k e l y p o s s i b i l i t y , g i v e n t h e c o n t r o l o f the T h i e u a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , b u t i s a p o s s i b i l i t y n o n e t h e l e s s . E v e n t s have shown.in t h e p a s t i n Sou t h V i e t n a m , t h a t a c o n t i n u e d p o l i c y o f r e p r e s s i o n i s n o t l o n g t o l e r a t e d , p a r t i c u l a r l y by the B u d d h i s t s . I f T h i e u does n o t soon b e g i n . t o a l t e r h i s p o l i c i e s v i s a v i s , t h e op-p o s i t i o n , i t i s n o t i m p r o b a b l e t h a t a t t e m p t s w i l l , b e made to t o p p l e h i s government. A t t h e same t i m e , i f Thieu. does a l t e r h i s p o l i c i e s ( p r e -sumably because o f US p r e s s u r e ) t o accommodate.the o p p o s i t i o n and to a l l o w them t o o r g a n i z e , t h e . d i v i s i o n o f f o r c e s i n South V i e t n a m w i l l p r o b a b l y become much more s u p p o r t i v e . o f a. c o a l i t i o n government. I n Laos.and C y p r u s , a d i s t i n c t d i v i s i o n o f i n t e r n a l f o r c e s was seen t o have g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t e d t h e c h o i c e o f a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a i n 9G the f i n a l s e t t l e m e n t ( i n t e r n a l c r i t e r i o n #2 and #3).. . C u r r e n t l y , as i n d i c a t e d , t h e d i v i s i o n o f f o r c e s i n South V i e t n a m . i s much l e s s c l e a r c u t t h a n . i n t h e s e two c a s e s . W h i l e t h e r e a r e some s i m i l a r i t i e s between t h e case o f Laos and t h a t , o f South V i e t n a m , the major d i f f e r -ence between the two i s the p o s i t i o n and s t r e n g t h o f t h e " m i d d l e " f o r c e s . I n . L a o s , t h e " n e u t r a l i s t " f o r c e s u n d e r Souvanna Phouma were i n c o n t r o l o f the.government.and. r e p r e s e n t e d a , c o h e s i v e group. I n Sou t h . V i e t n a m , however, t h e " r i g h t i s t " e l e ments a r e i n c o n t r o l o f t h e government and the " n e u t r a l i s t " element ( t h e " t h i r d " f o r c e ) remains r e l a t i v e l y weak a t p r e s e n t . The d i f f e r e n c e i n s t r e n g t h c r e a t e d f r o m a c t u a l c o n t r o l o f t h e government i s v i t a l s i n c e i t i s one o f the main r e a s o n s • t h a t the " t h i r d f o r c e " i n So u t h V i e t n a m remains, d i s o r g a n i z e d . S i n c e e i t h e r o f t h e s i t u a t i o n s m e ntioned above, the o v e r t h r o w o f T h i e u o r h i s d e c i s i o n t o accommodate t h e o p p o s i t i o n , w o u l d l e a d t o a t l e a s t some i n c r e a s e d c o n t r o l o f t h e government by the " m i d d l e " groups i n South V i e t n a m , a d i v i s i o n o f the i n t e r n a l groups i n much more d i s t i n c t g r o u p i n g s c o n d u c i v e t o a c o a l i t i o n f o r m u l a i n . S a i g o n i s a p o s s i b i l i t y f o r the n e a r f u t u r e . A f i n a l f a c t o r w h i c h i s i m p i n g i n g on the p o s s i b l e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government i n South. V i e t n a m i s t h e t e r r i t o r i a l g roup-ment o f the d i s p u t i n g f o r c e s ( i n t e r n a l c r i t e r i o n #4). T h i s f a c t o r was r e l e v a n t o n l y t o one case s t u d y , b u t i s q u i t e i m p o r t a n t i n the case o f South Vietnam. The 1972 DRV/PRG o f f e n s i v e has now. g r e a t l y r e d u c e d t h e government c o n t r o l i n t h e . c o u n t r y s i d e . I n June, 1972, a l l o f t h e c o a s t a l p r o v i n c e s f r o m Q u a n g , T r i t o B i n h D i n h had f a l l e n 4 to the DRV/PRG f o r c e s . These a r e a s a r e i m p o r t a n t b o t h s t r a t e g i c a l l y 91 and p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y i n S o u t h V i e t n a m . I n s e v e r a l a r e a s , s u c h as Quang N g a i p r o v i n c e , t h e s u p p o s e d l y d e f u n c t l o c a l g u e r r i l l a s emerged and assumed c o n t r o l " * , a f u r t h e r p s y c h o l o g i c a l b l o w t o t h e S a i g o n regime. I n A u g u s t , 1972, t h e s t r a t e g i c Que Son V a l l e y a l s o . f e l l t o t h e DRV/ PRG f o r c e s . W h i l e government e f f o r t s have been t r y i n g t o r e c a p t u r e t h e s e a r e a s , s u c c e s f u l r e c a p t u r e has n o t been d e f i n i t e l y d e t e r m i n e d as y e t . Though a t o t a l v i c t o r y o f the DRV/PRG f o r c e s does n o t appear l i k e l y , t h e improved NLF/PRG c o n t r o l o f the c o u n t r y s i d e has d e f i n i t e l y i m proved t h e PRG's'.bargaining p o s i t i o n . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l i m p a c t o f the o f f e n s i v e has u n d o u b t e d l y h e l p e d s h i t t e r the image T h i e u has been t r y i n g t o b u i l d up s i n c e t h e 1968 o f f e n s i v e . F i n a l l y , t h e i m p o r t a n t economic a r e a s under NLF c o n t r o l i n t h e r i c e - g r o w i n g a r e a s o f t h e S o u t h a r e a l s o c o n s i d e r a b l e . Thus t h e c u r r e n t groupment o f the d i s p u t i n g f o r c e s w h i c h l e a v e s much s t r a t e g i c t e r r i t o r y under NLF c o n t r o l , b u t t h e s e a t o f t h e n a t i o n a l government s t i l l u n d e r S a i g o n ' s c o n t r o l , s h o u l d be c o n d u c i v e t o an e v e n t u a l compromise s e t t l e m e n t o f the war j u d g i n g f r o m b o t h t h e example o f L a o s , and the a p p a r e n t US d e s i r e t o end t h e war p r i o r o r i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g the November, 1972 e l e c t i o n . C o n c l u s i o n The above a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t s e v e r a l f a c t o r s w h i c h a p p e a r t o be s u p p o r t i v e o f the e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a c o a l i t i o n government a r e , i n t h e case o f S o u t h V i e t n a m , p r e s e n t o r l i k e l y t o be p r e s e n t i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . I n t h e c a t e g o r y o f s u p p o r t i v e f a c t o r s r e l a t e d to the n a t u r e o f the a l i g n m e n t o f t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s i n w o r l d p o l i t i c s and o f t h e i r p o l i c i e s , the i n t e r n a t i o n a l e n v ironment s u r r o u n d i n g V i e t n a m 92 appears ripe for a compromise settlement. In the category of supportive factors related to the nature of the internal groups, two key conditions are not present to d a t e — internal i n i t i a t i v e s to establish a coalition, or a distinct division of internal forces — but these two conditions can come into existence in the near future, given the circumstances indicated in the above dis-cussion. A favourable t e r r i t o r i a l groupment (internal criterion #4) supportive of a settlement would appear to be present at this time. The results of this study, therefore, seem to indicate that the establishment of some form of coalition government by international accords in South Vietnam, is supported by a variety of factors which may not be immediately present, but which are lik e l y p o s s i b i l i t i e s for the future. In the long run, however, i f a coalition government does eventually become an acceptable solution to the Vietnam war, the nature of the settlement w i l l be the real determinant of how effective the coalition is as a means to end the wareand to return international s t a b i l i t y to Indochina. As Samuel Huntington points out, "A successful settlement can also inaugurate a process of p o l i t i c a l accommodation through which the various elements of Vietnamese society may eventually be brought together into a functioning polity." While Huntington's concept of a "functioning" policy may not be directly applicable to what the Vietnamese consider a "functioning" polity, i t would appear that three key factors impinge on a successful settlement in Vietna: 1) the 93 f a i r a l l o t m e n t o f power t o t h e NLF/PRG,. 2) t h e a p p o i n t m e n t o f a t r u l y n e u t r a l l e a d e r a t the head o f t h e government, and 3) t h e manner p r o v i d e d f o r t h e e v e n t u a l r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f V i e t n a m . The f i r s t f a c t o r , a f a i r a l l o t m e n t of. power t o t h e NLF/PRG, i s an o b v i o u s n e c e s s i t y i f a r e s u m p t i o n o f armed w a r f a r e , i s t o b e . a v o i d e d . T h i s n e c e s s i t y has a l r e a d y been a c c e p t e d by most Vi e t n a m e s e . A c c o r d i n g t o . D o u g l a s P i k e , who i s h a r d l y s y m p a t h e t i c t o t h e PRG, t h e r e i s n o t one Vietnamese t h a t he knows p e r s o n a l l y who does n o t b e l i e v e t h a t t h e NLF/PRG w i l l and must e v e n t u a l l y be accommodated. 7 Of c o u r s e , t h i s f a c t o r a l s o i n c l u d e s t h e f a i r a l l o t m e n t o f power to t h e o t h e r f o r c e s i n South V i e t n a m as w e l l . The s e c o n d . f a c t o r , a p p o i n t m e n t o f a n e u t r a l l e a d e r a t t h e head o f t h e government, i s a l s o an u r g e n t r e q u i r e m e n t f o r the s u c c e s s f u l o p e r a t i o n o f a c o a l i t i o n i n South V i e t n a m . Such a l e a d e r , p r e s u m a b l y drawn f r o m t h e " t h i r d f o r c e " group, w o u l d have to be a b l e t o m a i n t a i n a n e u t r a l o u t l o o k i n s p i t e o f n u m e r o u s : p a r t i s a n p r e s s u r e s — a t a s k w h i c h w i l l , n o t be an easy one, b u t w h i c h i s e s s e n t i a l . The t h i r d f a c t o r , the manner p r o v i d e d f o r t h e e v e n t u a l r e u n -i f i c a t i o n o f V i e t n a m , w i l l be a s e n s i t i v e i s s u e , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r t h e e x t e r n a l p a r t i e s and t h e i n t e r n a l . g r o u p adamantly opposed t o . s u c h r e u n i f i c a t i o n . The r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f V i e t n a m , however, i s n o t o n l y p r o v i d e d f o r by t h e 1954 Geneva. Agreements, b u t a l s o i s a d e s i r e w h i c h appears t o be h e l d by t h e m a j o r i t y o f Vietnamese. A . s e t t l e m e n t i n V i e t n a m , t h e r e f o r e , must p r o v i d e some p r o v i s i o n w h i c h w i l l be a c c e p t e d by a l l p a r t i e s c o n c e r n e d , f o r t h e e v e n t u a l r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f Vietnam. 94 The reunification of Vietnam also implies that coalition govern-ment in South Vietnam w i l l be only.a temporary solution. Given that the DRV and the PRG are now apparently willing to concede to a lengthy period prior to reunification, however, a coalition government in Saigon could be a f a i r l y long-term solution. If the coalition served the purpose of ending the armed h o s t i l i t i e s in South Vietnam until the reunification, i t may s t i l l be.considered a viable solution inspite of the eventual change i n i t s make-up implied in union with the DRV. Some analysts have argued that even a temporary coalition in South Vietnam is not possible. Samuel Huntington, for example, be-lieves that i f a reasonable balance of power was alloted to the var-ious groups in South Vietnam, i t would be a government divided against g i t s e l f . Indeed, one may argue that judging from two case examples of coalition governments which were both failures, how could one possibly be optimistic about the chances of a coalition in Saigon. The only counter argument to be offered appears to be the Vietnamese conviction that even the most opposing interests can be accommodated to the general interest in Vietnam, when the need arises. This argument was also expressed to the author in a l l her interviews with Vietnamese expatriates of every p o l i t i c a l persuasion, by members of the NLF and DRV negotiating teams in Paris, and. was supported as well by the opinions of.two French experts on Vietnam — Jean Lacouture, 9 and Jacques Decornoy of. Le Monde. Such a viewpoint may.be overly optimistic.of the chances of a. coalition government in South Vietnam, but i t i s an argument which would at least help to create a favourable 95 internal environment for the operation of a coalition i f one were established. In the f i n a l analysis, any settlement which brings an end to the bloodshed and suffering in Indochina, i s worth consideration. A coalition government could possibly offer a satisfactory means to end the war.for a l l parties concerned in the opinion of the author. Peace in Vietnam, based on.a viable p o l i t i c a l settlement, can benefit not only the people of Indochina, but also help encourage the process of st a b i l i t y and development in South East Asia. 96 F o o t n o t e s C h a p t e r I 1. R. St e p h e n s , C y p r u s , A P l a c e o f Arms, P a l l M a l l P r e s s , London, 1966, pg. 157 2. H. Psomiades,."The Cyprus D i s p u t e " , C u r r e n t H i s t o r y , May, 1965 pg. 270 3. R. S t e p h e n s , op. c i t . , pg 159 4. i b i d . , pg 160 5. S. K y r i a k i d e s , C y p r u s , C o n s t i t u t i o n a l i s m and C r i s i s Government, U n i v e r s i t y o f P e n n s y l v a n i a P r e s s , P h i l a d e l p h i a , 1968, pg 60-61 6. i b i d . , pg 163 7. H. Ps o m i a d e s , l o c . c i t . , pg 306 8. S. K y r i a k i d e s , opg.. c i t . , pg 143 9. A r t h u r Dommen, C o n f l i c t i n L a o s , P r a e g e r . P u b l i s h e r s , New Y o r k , ; , i 1971, A p p e n d i x I I I , pg 414- D e c l a r a t i o n o f RLG, J u l y 21, 1954 10. R i c h a r d B u t w e l l , S o u t h e a s t A s i a Today - and Tomorrow, P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , New Y o r k , 1970, pg 51 11. Donald K i r k , Wider War, P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , New Y o r k , 1971, pg 202; see a l s o Dommen, pg 82 12. P a r s o n s t e s t i m o n y o f h i s s t r u g g l e a g a i n s t t h e c o a l i t i o n i s fo u n d i n C o n f l i c t i n I n d o c h i n a : A Reader on t h e Wid e n i n g War i n Laos' and Cambbida, pg 172-184 13. Dommen, op. c i t , pg 109 14. K i r k , op. c i t , pg 204 15. i b i d . 16. B u t w e l l , op. c i t . , pg 51. 17. K i r k , op. c i t , pg 206 18. J . M c A l i s t e r , "The P o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r D i p l o m a c y i n South E a s t A s i a " , W o r l d P o l i t i c s , J a n u a r y , 1967, pg 287 19. Dommen, op. c i t . , pg 201 20. i b i d . , A p p e n d i x V I I , pg 426 21. i b i d . , pg 224 22. B u t w e l l , op. c i t , pg 82; see map on page 244 of Dommen f o r c e a s e - f i r e l i n e showing e x t e n t o f P a t h e t Lao c o n t r o l 23. Dommen, op. c i t . , pg 241 24. i b i d . , pg 402 25. i b i d . , pg 398 26. F o r example, December 20, 1963, J a n u a r y 17-20, 1964, A p r i l , 1964, Au g u s t , 1964, 1967, F e b r u a r y , 1969, Ju n e , 1969, March, 1970, May, 19 27. See B u l l e t i n o f Peace P r o p o s a l s , 1971-3, under s e c t i o n "War i n I n d o c h i n a " , Lao P a t r i o t i c F r o n t New I m p o r t a n t O f f e r C h a p t e r I I 1. R. B u t w e l l , op. c i t , pg 188 2. A l l a n Goodman, "S o u t h V i e t n a m : N e i t h e r War Nor Pe a c e " , A s i a n S u r v e y , F e b u r a r y , 1970, pg 115 3. Cao Huy Thuan, "Le Mouvement B o u d d h i s t e : H i e r e t Demain", Problemes  P o l i t i q u e s e t S o c i a u x , 11 decembre, 1970, pg 21 4. i b i d , (my t r a n s l a t i o n f r o m F r e n c h ) 5. G e r a l d C. H i c k e y , "Accommodation and C o a l i t i o n i n South V i e t n a m " , RAND C o r p o r a t i o n P a p e r s , P-4213, J a n u a r y , 1970, quo t e d on page 22 97 6. Cao Huy Thuan, l o c . c i t , pg 23; L e t t e r o f T h i c h T h i e n Chau t o P r e s i d e n t N i x o n , F e b r u a r y 28, 1969 7. New Y o r k Times, September 3, 1971, pg 3 8. Le Monde, , 31 a o i i t , 1971 9. A l l a n Goodman, "Government and t h e C o u n t r y s i d e : P o l i t i c a l Accom-m o d a t i o n and S o u t h V i e t n a m ' s Communal Groups", O r b i s , Summer, 1969, pg 507 10. , i b i d . 11. J a p a n Times, November 29, 1970 E d i t o r i a l 12. J a p a n Times, J a n u a r y 13, 1971, E d i t o r i a l 13. A. Goodman, l o c . c i t , ( F e b r u a r y , 1 9 7 0 ) , pg 117 14. G. H i c k e y , op. c i t , pg 10 15. D i n h Van Huong, "Les C a t h o l i q u e s au Sud-Vietnam en,1970", Problemes P o l i t i q u e s e t S o c i a u x , 11 decembre, 1970, pg 25 16. J e a n V o g e l , "Les C a t h o l i q u e s p o u r r a i e n t j o u e r un r o l e d e c i s i f dans l a c o n s t i t u t i o n d'un gouvernment p r o v i s o i r e au V i e t n a m " , I n f o r m a t i o n s C a t h o l i q u e s I n t e r n a t i o n a l e s , J u n e 1, 1972, pg 6 17. G. H i c k e y , op. c i t , pg 10-11 18. A. Goodman, l o c . c i t . ( F e b r u a r y , 1970), pg 118 19. i b i d . 20. i b i d . 21. J e a n V o g e l , l o c . c i t , pg 4 22. i b i d . , pg 5 (my t r a n s l a t i o n f r o m F r e n c h ) 23. i b i d . 24. See J u d i t h Coburn, " B u i l d i n g Pax en B e l l o " , F a r E a s t e r n Economic  Review, March 11, 1972j pg 21 25. F o r t h e d i s c u s s i o n of t h e PRG r e p r e s e n t a t i v e w i t h t h e C a t h o l i c M a g a z i n e I C I , see t h e March 15, 1972 i s s u e , pg 35 26. George Wald, "The South V i e t n a m e s e C a t h o l i c s " , New Y o r k Times, J a n u a r y 11, 1971 27. F o r an a c c o u n t o f Due's c a r e e r , see J e a n - C l a u d e P o m o n t i , " B e t e N o i r e du Regime de S a i g o n " , L e MOnde, November 10; 1971, pg 4 28. " I s T h i e u N e c e s s a r y " , Time, June 5, 1972, pg 17 29. Anthony L e w i s , " F o r Whom We F i g h t " , . E d i t o r i a l , New Y o r k Times, J u l y 8, 1972 30. B. C h e r r y , " H o l y See", F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, A p r i l 1, 1972, pg 10 31. A. Goodman, l o c . c i t , (Summer, 1 9 6 9 ) , pg 511 32. i b i d . , pg 513 33. G. H i c k e y , op. c i t , pg 18 34. B. C h e r r y , "You'd T h i n k T h e r e Was a War On", F a r E a s t e r n Economic  Review, June 3, 1972, pg 3 35. The f a c t t h a t t h e c u r r e n t o f f e n s i v e i s now r a g i n g d i r e c t l y n o r t h o f Tay N i n h P r o v i n c e i n An L o c may s t i r o p p o s i t i o n t o T h i e u s i n c e he has had t o send m a s s i v e r e i n f o r c e m e n t s o f ARVN t r o o p s i n and around t h e AN L o c a r e a . 36. A. Goodman, l o c . c i t . (Summer, 1 9 6 9 ) , pg 514 37. G. H i c k e y , op. c i t , pg 19 38. i b i d . 39. i b i d . , pg 23 40. A. Goodman, l o c . c i t (Summer, 1 9 6 9 ) , pg 517 41. Ron Moreau, "Tomorrow's Red I n d i a n s " , F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, A p r i l 17, 1971, pg 23 98 42. New Y o r k Times, December 19, 1971, pg 3 43. i b i d . 44. i b i d . 45. Ron Moreau, l o c . c i t . , pg 25 46. i b i d . 47. See f o r example, F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, June 24, 1972, pg 27 48. G. H i c k e y , op. c i t , pg 33 49. F a r E a s t e r n Economic feview, June 24, 1972, pg 27 50. See M a l c o l m Brown, " S a i g o n I n t e l l e c t u a l s F e a r M o r a l e C o l l a p s e " , New Y o r k Times, J u l y 5, 1972 51. Douglas P i k e , War,,Peace, and t h e V i e t Cong, MIT P r e s s , B o s t o n , 1969, pg 6 52. F o r a co m p l e t e l i s t o f t h e member o r g a n i z a t i o n s . s e e V i e t n a m e s e  S t u d i e s #23, "From t h e NLF t o t h e P r o v i s i o n a l R e v o l u t i o n a r y Gov-ernment", 1970, A p p e n d i x I , pg 244 53. G. H i c k e y , op. c i t , pg 37 54. D. P i k e , op. c i t , pg 12 55. V i e t n a m e s e S t u d i e s , op. c i t , pg 45 56. i b i d . , pg 58 57. C h a r l e s J o i n e r , " South V i e t n a m : The P o l i t i c s o f Peace" , A s i a n S u r v e y , F e b r u a r y , 1969, pg 152 58. The A l l i a n c e o f N a t i o n a l D e m o c r a t i c and Peace F o r c e s i s l i s t e d h e r e under t h e NLF f o r t h e sake o f s i m p l i c i t y though i t i s p o s s i b l e t o argue t h a t i t r e p r e s e n t s s i g n i f i c a n t membership n o t a l i g n e d w i t h the NLF. 59. See Douglas P i k e , op. c i t , pg 18-32 f o r a t h o r o u g h d i s c u s s i o n o f th e A l l i a n c e and i t s ' p a r t i c i p a n t s . See a l s o V i e t n a m e s e S t u d i e s #23 f o r t he A l l i a n c e M a n i f e s t o and P o l i t i c a l Program 60. R o b e r t , S h a p l e n , " L e t t e r f r o m S a i g o n " , New Y o r k e r , May 13, 1972, pg 118 61. V i e t n a m e s e S t u d i e s , op. c i t , pg 120 62. R. B u t w e l l , op. c i t , pg 69; Huynh Tan P h a t , P r e s i d e n t o f t h e PRG, i s a l o n g t i m e member o f t h e PRP. 63. New Y o r k Times, June 30, 1972j pg 3 64. A. Goodman, R. H a r r i s , J . Wood, "S o u t h V i e t n a m and t h e P o l i t i c s o f S e l f - S u p p o r t " , A s i a n S u r v e y , J a n u a r y , 1971, pg 13. See a l s o J . B u l l i n g t o n and J . R o s e n t h a l , "The Sou t h V i e t n a m e s e C o u n t r y s i d e : . Non-Communist P o l i t i c a l p e r c e p t i o n s " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1970, pg 653 65. Nguyen Huu C h i , now a P r o f e s s o r a t C a r l e t o n U n i v e r s i t y , was one of t h e few c i v i l i a n p r o v i n c e c h i e f s and was f o r c e d t o f l e e t h e c o u n t r y when he r e f u s e d t o a c c e p t c o r r u p t p r a c t i c e s i n h i s p r o v i n c e ; p r i v a t e d i s c u s s i o n i n A p r i l , 1972 66. A l l a n Goodman, "The End o f t h e War as a S e t t i n g f o r t h e F u t u r e Development o f South V i e t n a m " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A p r i l , 1971, pg 344 67. S h a p l e n , l o c . c i t , pg 116 68. M i l t o n S a c k s , " R e s t r u c t u r i n g Government i n South V i e t n a m " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1967, pg 413 69. A. Goodman, l o c . c i t . ( F e b r u a r y , 1970), pg 112 70. P e t e r K i n g , "The P o l i t i c a l B a l a n c e i n S a i g o n " , P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , F a l l , 1971, pg 413 71. F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, O c t o b e r 9, 1971, pg 8 72. "Labours Love G a i n e d " , F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, May 8, 1971, pg 26; Goodman c l a i m s t h a t t h e CVT r e p r e s e n t s l i t t l e more t h a n 100,000 w o r k e r s - see A s i a n S u r v e y , F e b r u a r y , 1970, pg 113 99 73. ibid . 74. "Offensive Ad Infinitum", Far Eastern Economic Review, May 20, •:1972, pg 10 75. "Hanoi Backs Saigon Exiles in Coalition", New York Times, May 27, 1972 76. "Vietnam Exiles Discussing Coalition", New York Times, May 24, 1972, pg 20 77. Information conveyed i n a private interview in June, 1972 with M. Duong Minh Due, Secretary-General of the Central Committee of Vietnamese Students in.France - one of the chapters of the Association. 78. Interview i n Paris in June, 1972 with Tran Dinh Lan 79. See New York Times, June 23, 1972, pg 1 80. D. Pike, op. c i t , pg 66 81. Milton Sacks, loc. c i t , pg 517 82. See Allan Goodman, loc. c i t (February, 1970), for a review of policy goals 83. ib i d . , pg 112 84. A. Goodman, "Conflict and Accommodation Within a Legislative E l i t e in South Vietnam", Pacific Affairs, Summer, 1971, pg 220 85. Samuel Huntington, "The Bases of Accommodation", Foreign Affairs July, 1968, pg 647 86. This view is supported by Goodman (February, 1970), pg 119 87. Milton Sacks, loc. c i t , pg 524 88. See Milton Osborne, "The Vietnamese Perception of the Identity of State: Absolute Ideals and the Necessity to Compromise", Australian Outlook, A p r i l , 1969, pg 7-17 89. For a breakdown of the participants in this government, see the study by Le Tan Buu included i n the Congressional Record, August 6, 1969, pg 22721-22723 90. This theme is well developed in regards to South Vietnam i n G. Hickey's analysis, op. c i t . 91. D. Pike, op. c i t , pg 93 92. ibid. 93. Bases for a Settlement'of the Vietnam Problem, Published by the Vietnam Courrier', 1971, Hanoi, pg 29. Note: Iaam not sure of the meaning in,Vietnamese translation but assume i t was also " l i e n minh" or "coalition". 94. ib i d . , pg 44 95. • J. Coburn, loc. c i t , pg 20 96. ibid. 97. Quoted from New York Times, Februaryl4, 1972, pg 4 98. Jean Lacouture, "Que Veulent les Nord-Vietnamiens et le GRP?", Le Monde Diplomatique, Apr i l , 1972, pg 1 99. Vietnamese Studies #23, op. c i t , pg 339 100. Bases for a Settlement,, op. c i t , pg 37; September 17, 1970 8-Point Clarification of lO^Point Solution 101. Helene Carrere d'Encausse,."L'URSS et l a Guerre du Vietnam", Le Monde Diplomatique; June, 1972, pg 1 102. Philip Dion, "Fatal Ambivalence",.Far Eastern Economic Review, March 20, 1971, pg 26' 103. D. Pike, op. c i t , pg 40 100 104. H a r r i s o n . S a l i s b u r y , "Image and R e a l i t y i n . I n d o c h i n a " , F o r e i g n  A f f a i r s A p r i l , 1971, pg 392 105. . P.- D i o n , l o c c i t , pg 2 106. New Y o r k Times, May 12, 1972 107. F . J . George, "Two P r o x i e s W i t h o u t a V o t e " , F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review , May 27, 1972, pg 11 108. H. d'Encausse, l o c c i t . , pg 2 (my t r a n s l a t i o n f r o m F r e n c h ) 109. H a r r i s o n S a l i s b u r y r e p o r t e d t h a t K r u s c h e v a s s e r t e d i n h i s remebrances t h a t t h e C h i n e s e b e l i e v e d t h a t "Ho's j i g " was up a t t h e t i m e of D i e n B i e n Phu and t h a t . t h e V i e t M i n h had come t o t h e end o f t h e r o a d . See S a l i s b u r y , l o c . c i t , pg 391 110. R. B u t w e l l , op. c i t , pg 72 111. F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, March 20, 1971, pg 26 112. See H a r r i s o n S a l i s b u r y ' s a r t i c l e i n New Y o r k Times, J u l y 1 1 , 1972 113. The E c o n o m i s t , May 13, 1972, pg 33 114. D. P i k e , op. c i t , pg 36 115. H. S a l i s b u r y , l o c . c i t (New Y o r k Times) 116. i b i d . 117. H. S a l i s b u r y , l o c . c i t . (New Y o r k T i m e s ) . C h i n a was opposed t o t h e o p e n i n g o f t h e P a r i s Peace T a l k s p r i n c i p a l l y f ° r f e a r t h a t i t might have moved t h e US and USSR c l o s e r t o d e t e n t e . 118. R. B u t w e l l , op. c i t , pg 23 119. i b i d , pg 71 120. See t h e e d i t o r i a l i n t h e New Y o r k Times, May 3, 1972, pg 46 121. A p r i l 30, 1970 a d d r e s s t o the N a t i o n , q uoted i n B u l l e t i n o f  Peace P r o p o s a l s , 1970-3; see a l s o A p r i l 25, 1972 a d d r e s s , New Y o r k Times, A p r i l 27, 1972: "But we w i l l n o t be d e f e a t e d and we w i l l n e v e r s u r r e n d e r our f i r e n d s t o communist a g g r e s s i o n . " 122. New Y o r k Times, June 30, 1972, pg 32M 123. Vancouver Sun, August 29, 1972 124. New.York Times,.June 30, 1972, pg 32M 125. New Y o r k Times, May 3, 1972, pg 46 126. New Y o r k Times, May 10, 1972, pg 14 127. New Y o r k Times, August 11, 1972, pg 8 C h a p t e r I I I 1. See J o h n D o n n e l , " E x p a n d i n g P o l i t i c a l P a r t i c i p a t i o n - The Long H a u l f r o m V i l l a g i s m t o N a t i o n a l i s m " , A s i a n Survey A u g u s t , 1970j pg 688-704 f o r a w e l l documented a n a l y s i s o f S a i g o n ' s weak p o l i t i c a l c o n t r o l i n t h e c o u n t r y s i d e . 2. New Y o r k Times, May 1 3 , 1972, pg 8 3. These c a t e g o r i e s were s u g g e s t e d t o me i n an i n t e r v i e w w i t h J e a n L a c o u t u r e i n P a r i s on J u l y 5, 1972. N o t e : n e i t h e r c a t e g o r y i m p l i e s t h a t t h e US o r t h e PRG w o u l d be t o t a l l y , s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e r e s u l t s b u t r a t h e r t h a t t h e accommodation w o u l d be more i n a c c o r d w i t h t h e i r s t a t e d g o a l s . 4. New Y o r k Times, June 2 1 s t , 1972 5. i b i d . 6. Samuel H u n t i n g t o n , 'loc. c i t . , pg 642 7. Douglas P i k e , op. c i t , pg 88 8. H u n t i n g t o n , l o c . c i t , pg 653 9. These i n t e r v i e w s t o o k p l a c e i n 1968-69 i n P a r i s and i n t h e summer o f 1972 101 S e l e c t e d B i b l i o g r a p h y c 7 P r u s Adams, Thomas W. and A l v i n Co t t r e l l , .Cyprus Between E a s t and West, B a l t i m o r e , John H o p k i n s U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1969 Boyd, James, " C y p r u s : E p i s o d e i n P e a c e k e e p i n g " , I n t e r n a t i o n a l . O r g a n i z a t i o n , Volume XX, 1966, pg 1-17 Brown, N e v i l l e , " C y p r u s : a S t u d y i n U n r e s o l v e d C o n f l i c t " , W o r l d Today, September, 1967, pg 396-406 Cranshaw, J . , " C y r p r u s : C o l l a p s e o f the Z u r i c h Agreement", W o r l d Today, Au g u s t , 1964, pg 338-347 K y r i a k i d e s , S t a n l e y , C y p r u s : C o n s t i t u t i o n a l i s m and C r i s i s Government, P h i l a d e l p h i a , U n i v e r s i t y o f P e n n s y l v a n i a P r e s s , 1968 Psomiades, H a r r y , "The Cyprus D i s p u t e " , C u r r e n t H i s t o r y , May, 1965, pg 269-276+ S a l i h , H a l i l , C y p r u s : An A n a l y s i s o f C y p r i o t P o l i t i c a l D i s c o r d , New Y o r k , Theo Gaus Sons I n c . , 1968 S t e p h e n s , R o b e r t , C y p r u s , A P l a c e o f Arms, London, P a l l M a l l P r e s s , 1966 T a l a r i d e s , K., "Les A s p e c t s c o n s t i t u t i o n n e l s e t i n t e r n a t i o n a u x de l ' a f f a i r e de Chypre", P o l i t i q u e E t r a n g e r e , 29 ( 1 1 ) , 1964, pg 24-91 Laos Dommen, A r t h u r , C o n f l i c t i n L a o s , New Y o r k , P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1971 7 1 — - - - - " N e u t r a l i z a t i o n E x p e r i m e n t i n L a o s " , C u r r e n t H i s t o r y , F e b r u a r y , 1965, pg 89-94+ - - - - - - - - " L a o s : the T r o u b l e d N e u t r a l " , A s i a n S u r v e y , J a n u a r y , 1967, p g 74-81 - - - - - - - - "Laos i n t h e Second I n d o c h i n a War", C u r r e n t H i s t o r y , December,.1970, pg 326-332 - - - - - - - - "Toward N e g o t i a t i o n s . i n L a o s " , A s i a n S u r v e y , J a n u a r y , 1971, pg 941-950 - - - - - - - - "Laos: t h e Y e a r o f t h e Ho C h i Minh T r a i l " , A s i a n / S u r v e y , F e b r u a r y , 1972, pg 138-148 G e t t l e m a n , M a r v i n .and Susan, C a r o l and. Lawrence. K a p l a n , . C o n f l i c t . i n I n d o c h i n a , V i n t a g e Books, New Y o r k , 1970 K i r k , D o n a l d , Wider War, P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , New Y o r k , 1971 102 P a u l , R o l a n d , " L a o s : Anatomy o f A m e r i c a n I n v o l v e m e n t " , F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , A p r i l , 1971, pg 532-547 S h a p l e n , , R o b e r t , "Our Involvement- i n L a o s " , F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , A p r i l , 1970. pg 478-493 Simmonds, E.H.S., "The P r o b l e m o f L a o s " , The W o r l d Today,.May, 1970, Pg 189-195 Young, K e n n e t h , " N e u t r a l i s m i n Laos and Cambodia", I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s  Q u a r t e r l y , June, 1970, pg 219-226 V i e t n a m Bases f o r a S e t t l e m e n t o f t h e V i e t n a m P r o b l e m , P u b l i s h e d by t h e V i e t n a m C o u r r i e r , H a n o i , 1971 B e n n e t t , John, " P o l i t i c a l I m p l i c a t i o n s o f Economic Change: So u t h V i e t n a m " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1967, pg 581-591 B u l l i n g t o n , - J a m e s and James R o s e n t h a l , "The South V i e t n a m e s e - C o u n t r y s i d e : Non-Communist P o l i T t i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e s " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1970, pg 651-662 B u t w e l l , R i c h a r d , S o u t h e a s t A s i a Today - and Tomorrow, P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , New Y o r k , 1970 - - - - - - - - "The N i x o n D o c t r i n e i n S o u t h e a s t A s i a " , C u r r e n t H i s t o r y , December, 1971, pg 321-326 Buu, Le Tan, " V i e t n a m C o a l i t i o n " , C o n g r e s s i o n a l R e c o r d , A g u s t 6, 1969 pg22721-22723 Chesneaux, J e a n , Georges B o u d a r e l , D a n i e l Hemery ( E d s ) , T r a d i t i o n e t  R e v o l u t i o n au V i e t n a m , E d i t i o n s A n t h r o p o s , P a r i s , 1971 Committee f o r Concerned A s i a n S c h o l a r s ; The I n d o c h i n a S t o r y , Bantam Books, New Y o r k , 1970 , D o n n e l l , John and C h a r l e s J o i n e r , " S o u t h V i e t n a m : S t r u g g l e P o l i t i c s and th e B i g g e r War", A s i a n S u r v e y , J a n u a r y , 1967, pg 53-69 D o n n e l l , John, " P a c i f i c a t i o n Reassessed",. A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1967, pg 567-577 - - - - - - - "Ex p a n d i n g P o l i t i c a l P a r t i c i p a t i o n - t h e l o n g h a u l f r o m V i l l a g i s m t o N a t i o n a l i s m " . , A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1970, pg 687-705 Duncan, Graeme, " V i e t n a m and t h e F u t u r e o f South E a s t A s i a - I l " , A u s t r a l i a n O u t l o o k , A p r i l , 1969,.pg 33-45 103 Goodman, A l l a n , "Government and the C o u n t r y s i d e : P o l i t i c a l Accommodation and South Vietnam's Communal Groups", O r b i s , Summer, 1969, pg502-525 - - - - - - - - " S o u t h V i e t n a m : N e i t h e r War Nor P e a c e " , : A s i a n S u r v e y , F e b r u a r y , 1970, pg 107-133 - - - - - - - - "The P o l i t i c a l I m p l i c a t i o n s o f R u r a l P r o b l e m s i n So u t h V i e t n a m : C r e a t i n g the P u b l i c I n t e r e s t " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1970, pg 672-687 - - - - - - - - "ThetEnd o f t h e War as a S e t t i n g f o r t h e F u t u r e Development o f South V i e t n a m " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A p r i l , 1971, pg 341-351 - - - - - - - - " C o n f l i c t and Accommodation w i t h i n a L e g i s l a t i v e E l i t e i n South V i e t n a m " , P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , Summer, 1971, pg 211-227 - - - - - - - - "South V i e t n a m and the New S e c u r i t y " , A s i a n S u r v e y , F e b r u a r y , 1972, pg 121-138 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ John C. Wood, Randoph H a r r i s , "South V i e t n a m and t h e P o l i t i c s o f S e l f - S u p p o r t " , A s i a n Survey J a n u a r y , 1971, pg 1-25 H i c k e y , G e r a l d , "Accommodation and C o a l i t i o n i n So u t h V i e t n a m " , RAND R e p o r t P-4213, 1970, 65pg H u n t i n g t o n , Samuel, "The Bases o f Accommodation", F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , J u l y , 1968, pg 642-656 Huong, D i n h Van, "Les C a t h o l i q u e s au Sud V i e t n a m en 1970", Problemes  P o l i t i q u e s e t S o c i a u x , 11 decembre, 1970, pg 24-26 I s a r d , W a l t e r ( e d ) , V i e t n a m : Some B a s i c I s s u e s and A l t e r n a t i v e s , Peace R e s e a r c h S o c i e t y P a p e r s , Schenkman P u b l i s h e r s , Cambridge, Mass, 1969 Joi n e r . , C h a r l e s , " S o u t h V i e t n a m : P o l i t i c a l , M i l i t a r y , and C o n s t i t u t i o n a l A r e n a s i n N a t i o n B u i l d i n g " , A s i a n S u r v e y , J a n u a r y , 1968, pg 58-72 - - - - - - - - "South V i e t n a m : The P o l i t i c s o f P e a c e " , A s i a n S u r v e y , F e b r u a r y , 1969, pg 138-155 - - - - - - - - " P o l i t i c a l P r o c e s s e s i n the Two V i e t n a m s " , C u r r e n t H i s t o r y , December, 1970, pg 356-361+ K i n g , P e t e r , "The P o l i t i c a l B a l a n c e i n S a i g o n " , P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , F a l l , 1971, pg 401-420 M c A l i s t e r , John "The P o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r D i p l o m a c y i n S o u t h E a s t A s i a " , W o r l d P o l i t i c s , J a n u a r y , 1967, pg 258-305 Osborne, M i l t o n , "The Vietnamese P e r c e p t i o n o f t h e I d e n t i t y o f S t a t e " , A u s t r a l i a n O u t l o o k , A p r i l , 1969, pg 7-17 104 P i k e , D o u g l a s , War, Peace arid t h e V i e t c o r i g , M a s s a c h u s s e t s I n s t i t u t e o f Tec h n o l o g y P r e s s , B o s t o n , 1969, P o o l , I t h i e l de S o l a " P o l i t i c a l A l t e r n a t i v e s t o t h e V i e t Cong", A s i a n Survey A u g u s t , 1967, pg 555-567 P o p k i n s , Samuel, " P a c i f i c a t i o n : P o l i t i c s and the V i l l a g e " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1967, pg 515-527 Race, J e f f r e y , "How t h e y Wong", A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1970, pg 528-651 S a c k s , M i l t o n , " R e s t r u c t u r i n g Government i n South V i e t n a m " , A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1967, pg 515-527 S a l i s b u r y , H a r r i s o n , "Images and R e a l i t y i n I n d o c h i n a " , F o r e i g n A f f a i r s , A p r i l , 1971, pg 390-408 S h a p l e n , R o b e r t , The Road From War, V i e t n a m 1965-1970, H a r p e r & Row, New Y o r k , 1970 " L e t t e r from S a i g o n " , New Y o r k e r , May 13, 1972, pg 118 T h a i , Vu Van, "A C o a l i t i o n Government M i g h t Work", War/Peace R e p o r t , O c t o b e r , 1970, pg 3-7 Thuan, Cao Huy, "Le Mouvement B o u d d h i s t e : H i e r e t Demain", Problemes  P o l i t i q u e s e t S o c i a u x , 11 decembre, 1970, pg 21-24 V i e n , Nguyen Khac, E x p e r i e n c e s V i e t n a m i e n n e s , E d i t i o n s S o c i a l e s , P a r i s , 1970 V i e t n a m and S o c i a l i s m e , C e n t r e de Documentation e t de R e c h e r c h e s V i e t n a m i e n n e s , P a r i s , Nos 1,2,4, 1970-71 Vietnamese S t u d i e s #23, "From t h e NLF t o the PRG", H a n o i , 1970 V o g e l , J e a n , "Vietnam: Une d e c l a r a t i o n du GRP s u r l ' a v e n i r des communautes c o n f e s s i o n n e l l e s " , I n f o r m a t i o n s C a t h o l i q u e s I n t e r n a t i o n a l e s , March 15, 1972, pg 34-35 - - - - - - "Les C a t h o l i q u e s p o u r r a i e n t j o u e r un r o l e d e c i s i f dans l a c o n s t i t u t i o n d'un g o u v e r n m e n t . p r o v i s o i r e au V i e t n a m " , I n f o r m a t i o n s  C a t h b l o q u e s I n t e r n a t i o n a l e s , June 1972, pg 6 W u r f e l , D a v i d , "The S a i g o n P o l i t i c a l E l i t e : Focus on Fou r C a b i n e t s " , A s i a r i S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1967, pg 527-540 Young, K e n n e t h , "US p o l i c y and Vietnamese P o l i t i c a l V i a b i l i t y , 1954-1967", A s i a n S u r v e y , A u g u s t , 1967, pg 507-515 Newspapers and P e r i o d i c a l s B u l l e t i n o f P e a c e P r o p o s a l s , 1969-1972 Le Monde, 1971-72 F a r E a s t e r n Economic Review, 1971-72 New Y o r k . T i m e s , 1971-72 105 APPENDIX I Four M a j o r P o l i c y P o s i t i o n s on V i e t n a m o f the N i x o n A d m i n i s t r a t i o n May 26, 1969 8 - P 6 i n t Peace P l a n * 1. As soon as agreement can be r e a c h e d , a l l non So u t h - V i e t n a m e s e f o r c e s would b e g i n w i t h d r a w a l s f r o m South V i e t n a m . Over a p e r i o d o f t w e l v e months, by agreed-upon s t a g e s , t h e m a j o r p o r t i o n s o f a l l U n i t e d S t a t e s , a l l i e d and o t h e r non-South Vietnamese f o r c e s w o u l d be w i t h d r a w n . 2. A t t h e end o f t h i s twelve-month p e r i o d , t he r e m a i n i n g U n i t e d S t a t e s , a l l i e d , and o t h e r non-South V i e t n a m e s e f o r c e s w o u l d move i n t o d e s i g -n a t e d b a s e a r e a s and would n o t engage i n combat o p e r a t i o n s . 3. The r e m a i n i n g US and a l l i e d f o r c e s w o u l d complete t h e i r w i t h d r a w a l as t h e r e m a i n i n g N o r t h Vietnamese f o r c e s were w i t h d r a w n and r e t u r n e d t o N o r t h V i e t n a m . 4. An i n t e r n a t i o n a l S u p e r v i s o r y ' b o d y , a c c e p t a b l e t o b o t h s i d e s , w o u l d be c r e a t e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f v e r i f y i n g w i t h d r a w a l s , and f o r any o t h e r p u r p o s e a g r e e d upon between t h e two s i d e s . 5. T h i s i n t e r n a t i o n a l body w o u l d b e g i n o p e r a t i n g i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h an agreed t i m e t a b l e and w o u l d p a r t i c i p a t e i n a r r a n g i n g a s u p e r v i s e d c e a s e -f i r e i n Vietnam. 6. As soon as p o s s i b l e a f t e r t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l body was f u n c t i o n i n g , e l e c -t i o n would be h e l d under agreed p r o c e d u r e s and under ( i t s ) s u p e r v i s i o n . 7. Arrangements w o u l d be made f o r t h e r e l e a s e o f p r i s o n e r s o f war on b o t h s i d e s a t t h e . e a r l i e s t p o s s i b l e t i m e . 8. A l l p a r t i e s w o u l d agree to o b s e r v e t h e Geneva A c c o r d s o f 1954 r e g a r d i n g S o u t h V i e t n a m and Cambodia, and the Laos A c c o r d s o f 1962. * S o u r c e - Time M a g a z i n e , May 26, 1969, pg 35 O c t o b e r 8, 1970 5 - P o i n t Peace P l a n * 1. A c e a s e - f i r e i n p l a c e . 2. An I n d o c h i n a peace c o n f e r e n c e . 3. An agreed t i m e t a b l e f o r c o m p l e t e w i t h d r a w a l as p a r t o f an o v e r a l l s e t t l e m e n t . 4. A p o l i t i c a l s e t t l e m e n t t h a t t r u l y meets t h e a s p i r a t i o n s o f a l l South V i e t n a m e s e . Three p r i c i p l e s g overn the US ap p r o a c h : a) a p o l i t i c a l s e t t l e m e n t t h a t r e f l e c t s t h e w i l l o f t h e Sou t h Vietnamese b) a p o l i t i c a l s o l u t i o n w h i c h r e f l e c t s t h e e x i s t i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p o f ^ p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s i n Sou t h V i e t n a m c) US w i l l a b i d e by t h e outcome o f t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s agreed upon 5. An immediate and u n c o n d i t i o n a l r e l e a s e o f a l l p r i s o n e r s o f war h e l d by b o t h s i d e s . * S o u r c e - E x t r a c t e d f r o m t h e f u l l t e x t o f P r e s i d e n t N i x o n ' s s p e e c h , r e p r o -duced i n C u r r e n t H i s t o r y , December, 1970, pg 362 106 J a n u a r y 25, 1972 8 - P o i n t Peace P l a n 1. There w i l l be a t o t a l w i t h d r a w a l f r o m South V i e t n a m o f a l l US f o r c e s i and o t h e r f o r e i g n f o r c e s a l l i e d w i t h the government o f South V i e t n a m w i t h i n s i x months o f an agreement. 2. The r e l e a s e o f a l l m i l i t a r y men and i n n o c e n t c i v i l i a n s c a p t u r e d t h r o u g h -out' I n d o c h i n a w i l l be c a r r i e d . o u t i n p a r a l l e l w i t h t h e t r o o p w i t h d r a w a l s mentioned i n p o i n t 1. B o t h s i d e s w i l l p r e s e n t a complete l i s t o f m i l i t a r y men and i n n o c e n t c i v i l i a n s h e l d t h r o u g h o u t I n d o c h i n a on t h e day t h e agreement i s s i g n e d . The r e l e a s e w i l l b e g i n on t h e same day the t r o o p w i t h d r a w a l s b e g i n and w i l l be completed when they a r e c o m p l e t e d . 3. The f o l l o w i n g p r i n c i p l e s w i l l g o vern t h e p o l i t i c a l f u t u r e o f South V i e t n a m : the p o l i t i c a l f u t u r e o f So u t h V i e t n a m w i l l be l e f t f o r t h e South Vietnamese p e o p l e t o d e c i d e f o r t h e m s e l v e s , f r e e from o u t s i d e i n t e r f e r e n c e . There w i l l be a f r e e and d e m o c r a t i c p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n i n S o u t h V i e t n a m w i t M n s i x months o f an agreement. T h i s e l e c t i o n w i l l be o r g a n -i z e d and r u n by an i n d e p e n d e n t body r e p r e s e n t i n g a l l p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s i n S outh V i e t n a m w h i c h w i l l assume i t s r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s on t h e d a t e o f t he agreement. T h i s body w i l l , among o t h e r r e s p o s i b i l i t i e s , d e t e r m i n e th e q u a l i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s . A l l p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s i n So u t h V i e t n a m can p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e e l e c t i o n and p r e s e n t c a n d i d a t e s . There w i l l be i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u p e r v i s i o n o f t h i s e l e c t i o n ! One month b e f o r e t h e p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n t a k e s p l a c e , t h e i n -cumbent P r e s i d e n t and V i c e P r e s i d e n t o f South V i e t n a m w i l l r e s i g n . The Chairman o f t h e S e n a t e , as c a r e t a k e r head o f t h e government, w i l l assume a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s e x c e p t f o r t h o s e p e r t a i n i n g t o the e l e c t i o n , w h i c h w i l l r e m a i n w i t h t h e i n d e p e n d e n t e l e c t i o n body .... 4. B o t h s i d e s w i l l r e s p e c t t h e 1954 Geneva Agreements on I n d o c h i n a and th o s e o f 1962 on L a o s . . . . 5. The problems e x i s t i n g among I n d o c h i n e s e c o u n t r i e s w i l l be s e t t l e d by the I n d o c h i n e s e p a r t i e s on t h e b a s i s o f mutual r e s p e c t f o r i n d e p e n d e n c e , s o v e r e i g n t y , t e r r i t o r i a l i n t e g r i t y and n o n i n t e r f e r e n c e i n each o t h e r ' s a f f a i r s . . . . 6. There w i l l be a g e n e r a l c e a s e f i r e t h r o u g h o u t I n d o c h i n a , t o b e g i n when the agreement i s s i g n e d . . . . 7. There w i l l be i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u p e r v i s i o n o f t h e m i l i t a r y a s p e c t s o f t h i s agreement i n c l u d i n g t h e c e a s e f i r e and i t s p r o v i s i o n s , t h e r e l e a s e o f p r i s o n e r s o f war and i n n o c e n t c i v i l i a n s , t h e w i t h d r a w a l o f o u t s i d e f o r c e s from I n d o c h i n a , and t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f . t h e p r i n c i p l e t h a t a l l armed f o r c e s o f t h e c o u n t r i e s o f I n d o c h i n a must r e m a i n w i t M n t ' t h e i r n a t i o n a l f r o n t i e r s . 8. There w i l l be a n . i n t e r n a t i o n a l g u a r a n t e e f o r t h e f u n d a m e n t a l n a t i o n a l r i g h t s o f t h e I n d o c h i n e s e p e o p l e s , t h e s t a t u s o f a l l t h e c o u n t r i e s i n I n d o c h i n a , and l a s t i n g peace i n t h i s r e g i o n . * S o u r c e - Taken f r o m the t e x t o f P r e s i d e n t N i x o n ' s speech r e p r o d u c e d i n the C o n g r e s s i o n a l Q u a r t e r l y , J a n u a r y 29, 1972, pg 159+ 107 May 8, 1972 4 - P o i i i t Peace P l a n * 1. R e t u r n o f a l l A m e r i c a n p r i s o n e r s o f war. 2. An I n t e r n a t i o n a l l y s u p e r v i s e d c e a s e - r f i r e t h r o u g h o u t I n d o c h i n a . 3. Once p r i e o n e r s o f war a r e r e l e a s e d , once the i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y s u p e r -v i s e d c e a s e - f i r e has begun, we w i l l s t o p a l l a c t s o f f o r c e t h r o u g h -o u t I n d o c h i n a . 4. And a t t h a t t i m e , we (US) w i l l p r o c e e d w i t h a c o m p l e t e w i t h d r a w a l o f a l l A m e r i c a n f o r c e s f r o m V i e t n a m w i t h i n f o u r months. * S o u r c e - T e x t o f P r e s i d e n t N i x o n ' s A d d r e s s to the N a t i o n r e p r i n t e d i n t h e New Y o r k Times, May 9, 1972 108 APPENDIX I I The N.L.F. M a j o r P o l i c y P o s i t i o n s 1965-1972 March 22, 1965 F i v e - P o i n t S t a t e m e n t * 1. The U.S. i s the s a b o t u e r s o f t h e Geneva Agreements. 2. The South Vietnamese p e o p l e a r e r e s o l v e d t o d r i v e o u t t h e U.S. and a c h i e v e i n d e p e n d e n c e , democracy, peace, n e u t r a l i t y , and e v e n t u a l r e -u n i f i c a t i o n o f Vietnam. 3. I t i s t h e s a c r e d d u t y o f the South V i e t n a m e s e p e o p l e t o d r i v e o u t t h e U.S. and d e f e r i d t t h e N o r t h . 4. The South Vietnamese p e o p l e e x p r e s s g r a t i t u d e f o r t h e s u p p o r t o f p e a c e -and j u s t i c e l o v i n g p e o p l e a l l o v e r the w o r l d and d e c l a r e t h e i r r e a d i n e s s to r e c e i v e a s s i s t a n c e i n c l u d i n g weaponsetc. 5. U n i t e d as one man, the whole South Vietnamese p e o p l e a r e r e s o l v e d t o f i g h t and d e f e a t t h e U.S. a g r e s s o r s and Vietnamese t r a i t o r s . * S o u r c e - Bases f o r a s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e V i e t n a m P r o b l e m , p u b l i s h e d by t h e V i e t n a m C o u r r i e r , H a n o i , 1971 ( e x t r a c t e d f r o m s t a t e m e n t ) May 8, 1969 T e n - P o i n t O v e r a l l S o l u t i o n * 1. The Vietnamese p e o p l e ' s f u n d a m e n t a l n a t i o n a l r i g h t s , i . e . i n d e p e n d e n c e , s o v e r e i g n t y , u n i t y and t e r r i t o r i a l i n t e g r i t y ( s h a l l be r e s p e c t e d ) as r e c o g n i z e d by t h e 1954 Geneva Agreements. 2. The U.S. Government must w i t h d r a w from South V i e t n a m a l l U.S. t r o o p s , m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l , arms and war m a t e r i e l o f t h e o t h e r f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s o f t h e U.S. camp w i t h o u t p o s i n g any c o n d i t i o n w h a t s o e v e r and l i q u i d a t e a l l U.S. camps w i t h o u t p o s i n g any c o n d i t i e n s . . 3. The q u e s t i o n o f the Vietnamese armed f o r c e s i n South V i e t n a m s h a l l be r e s o l v e d by the Vietnamese p a r t i e s among t h e m s e l v e s . 4. The p e o p l e o f South V i e t n a m . s h a l l s e t t l e t h e m s e l v e s t h e i r own a f f a i r s w i t h o u t any f o r e i g n i n t e r f e r e n c e . They s h a l l d e c i d e t h e m s e l v e s the p o l i t i c a l regime o f S o u t h V i e t n a m t h r o u g h f r e e and d e m o c r a t i c e l e c t i o n s ; a c o n s t i t u e n t assembly w i l l be s e t up, a c o n s t i t u t i o n worked o u t and a c o a l i t i o n government o f South V i e t n a m i n s t a l l e d , r e f l e c t i n g n a t i o n a l c o n c o r d and the b r o a d u n i o n o f a l l s o c i a l s t r a t a ; 5. D u r i n g the p e r i o d i n t e r v e n i n g between ;the r e s t o r a t i o n o f p e a c e and t h e h o l d i n g o f g e n e r a l e l e c t i o n s , n e i t h e r p a r t y s h a l l impose i t s p o l i t i c a l r e g ime on t h e p e o p l e o f South V i e t n a m . The p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s r e p r e s e n t i n g the v a r i o u s s o c i a l s t r a t a and p o l i t i c a l t e n d e n c i e s i n South V i e t n a m t h a t s t a n d f o r p e a c e , independence, and n e u t r a l i t y - i n c l u d i n g t h o s e p e r s o n s who f o r p o l i t i c a l r e a s o n s have t o l i v e a b r o a d - w i l l e n t e r i n t o t a l k s t o s e t up a p r o v i s i o n a l c o a l i t i o n government ba s e d on the p r i n c i p l e o f e q u a l i t y , democracy, and m u t u a l r e s -p e c t w i t h a v i e w t o a c h i e v i n g a p e a c e f u l , i n d e p e n d e n t , d e m o c r a t i c and n e u t r a l S o u t h V i e t n a m . The p r o v i s i o n a l c o a l i t i o n g o v e r n m e n t ( w i l l ) implement the agreement t o be c o n c l u d e d on t h e w i t h d r a w a l o f the t r o o p s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e o t h e r f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s and h o l d f r e e and d e m o c r a t i c e l e c t i o n s . 109 S o u t h V i e t n a m w i l l c a r r y o u t a f o r e i g n p o l i c y o f peace and n e u t r a l i t y . ( I t w i l l ) e s t a b l i s h d i p l o m a t i c , economic, and c u l t u r a l r e l a t i o n s w i t h a l l c o u n t r i e s , . i r r e s p e c t i v e . o f p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l r e g i m e , i n c l u d i n g t h e U.S. The r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f V i e t n a m w i l l be a c h i e v e d s t e p by s t e p , by p e a c e f u l means, t h r o u g h d i s c u s s i o n s and agreement, between t h e two zones, w i t h o u t f o r e i g n i n t e r f e r e n c e . P e n d i n g t h e p e a c e f u l r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f V i e t n a m , the two zones s h a l l r e - e s t a b l i s h n o r m a l r e l a t i o n s i n a l l f i e l d s on the b a s i s o f m u t u a l r e s p e c t . As p r o v i d e d f o r i n the 1954 Geneva Agreements on V i e t n a m , the two zon e s , N o r t h and South V i e t n a m , s h a l l u n d e r t a k e t o r e f r a i n f r o m j o i n -i n g any m i l i t a r y a l l i a n c e w i t h f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . To r e s o l v e the a f t e r m a t h o f t h e war: A. The p a r t i e s w i l l n e g o t i a t e t h e r e l e a s e o f t h e army men c a p t u r e d i n war. B. The U.S. Government must b e a r f u l l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the l o s s e s and d e v a s t a t i o n s i t has ca u s e d t o "the Vietnamese p e o p l e i n b o t h zones. The p a r t i e s s h a l l r e a c h agreement on i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u p e r v i s i o n o v e r the w i t h d r a w a l f r o m South V i e t n a m o f t h e t r o o p s , m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l , arms and war m a t e r i e l o f t h e U.S. and t h e o t h e r f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s o f t h e Ame r i c a n camp. * S o u r c e - e x t r a c t e d from Bases f o r a S e t t l e m e n t , op. c i t . J u l y 1, 1971 S e v e n - P o i n t Program* 1. The U.S. government must end i t s war o f a g g r e s s i o n , s t o p " V i e t n a m i z a t i o n " , w i t h d r a w a l l t r o o p s , m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l , weapons, and war m a t e r i a l s , and d i s m a n t l e a l l US ba s e s i n So u t h V i e t n a m . The US must s e t a d e a d l i n e f o r th e w i t h d r a w a l o f a l l US f o r c e s . I f the US f i x e s a d a t e , the p a r t i e s w i l l a g r e e o n : a) t h e w i t h d r a w a l i n s a f e t y o f a l l US f o r c e s b) r e l e a s e o f p r i s o n e r s o f war A c e a s e f i r e w i l l be o b s e r v e d . 2. The US government must r e a l l y r e s p e c t the So u t h V i e t n a m p e o p l e ' s r i g h t to s e l f d e t e r m i n a t i o n , put an end t o i t s i n t e r f e r e n c e i n t h e i n t e r n a l a f f a i r s o f So u t h V i e t n a m , cease b a c k i n g t h e T h i e u government. The p o l i t i c a l , s o c i a l and r e l i g i o u s f o r c e s a s p i r i n g f o r peace and n a t i o n a l c o n c o r d w i l l use a l l s u i t a b l e means t o f o r m i n S a i g o n a new a d m i n i s t r a t i o n f a v o u r i n g peace,..independence, n e u t r a l i t y , and democracy. The PRG w i l l i m m e d i a t e l y . e n t e r i n t o t a l k s w i t h t h a t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t o s e t t l e t h e f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s : a) to form a b r o a d three-component i n t e r i m government o f n a t i o n a l c o n c o r d t o f u n c t i o n d u r i n g the p e r i o d between t h e r e s t o r a t i o n o f peace and t h e h o l d i n g o f g e n e r a l e l e c t i o n s and o r g a n i z e g e n e r a l e l e c t i o n s i n . S o u t h V i e t n a m . b) to t a k e measures to p r o h i b i t a c t s o f r e p r i s a l s . . . c) t o see t h a t t h e p e o p l e ' s l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s a r e s t a b i l i z e d and g r a d u a l l y i m p r o v e d d) t o a g r e e on measures to en s u r e the h o l d i n g o f g e n u i n e l y f r e e , demo-c r a t i c and f a i r e l e c t i o n s 110 3. The Vietnamese p a r t i e s w i l l s e t t l e t h e q u e s t i o n of Vietnamese.armed f o r c e s . 4. The r e u n i f i c a t i o n o f V i e t n a m w i l l be a c h i e v e d s t e p by s t e p , by p e a c e -f u l means and w i t h o u t f o r e i g n i n t e r f e r e n c e . 5. South V i e t n a m w i l l p u r s u e a f o r e i g n p o l i c y o f peace and n e u t r a l i t y . 6. The US government must b e a r f u l l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t h e l o s s e s and d e s t r u c t i o n i n t h e two zones i n Vi e t n a m . 7. The p a r t i e s w i l l come t o terms on the forms o f r e s p e c t and i n t e r n a t i o n a l g u a r a n t e e f o r t h e a c c o r d s w h i c h w i l l have been c o n c l u d e d . * S o u r c e - e x t r a c t e d f r o m Bases f o r a S e t t l e m e n t , op. c i t . F e b r u a r y 3, 1972 Two-Point E l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e S e v e n - P o i n t P r o p o s a l * 1. R e g a r d i n g the w i t h d r a w l o f US t r o o p s and the c e a s a t i o n o f t h e US a i r war and a l l US m i l i t a r y a c t i v i t i e s i n V i e t n a m : The US s h o u l d s t o p i t s a i r war and a l l m i l i t a r y a c t i v i t i e s i n V i e t -nam, r a p i d l y and c o m p l e t e l y w i t h d r a w a l l i t s t r o o p s , a d v i s e r s , m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l , weapons and war m a t e r i e l s . . . . The US s h o u l d s e t a s p e c i f i c t e r m i n a l d a t e f o r t h e c o m p l t e w i t h d r a w a l o f a l l US t r o o p s e t c . w h i c h w i l l a l s o be the t e r m i n a l d a t e f o r t h e r e l e a s e o f a l l m i l i t a r y men o f the p a r t i e s . l i n v o l v e d . 2. R e g a r d i n g t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o b l e m i n South V i e t n a m : Nguyen Van T h i e u and h i s machine o f o p p r e s s i o n c o n s t i t u t e t h e main o b s t a c l e t o t h e s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o b l e m : he s h o u l d t h e r e f o r e r e s i g n i m m e d i a t e l y and t h e S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n must end i t s w a r l i k e p o l i c y , d i s b a n d i t s machine o f o p p r e s s i o n , s t o p i t s p a c i f i c a t i o n p o l i c y , d i s b a n d t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n camps, and s e t f r e e t h o s e p e r s o n s a r r e s t e d on p o l i t i c a l g rounds... A f t e r t h e above has been a c h i e v e d , t h e PRG w i l l d i s c u s s w i t h t h e S a i g o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n the f o r m a t i o n o f a three-segment government o f n a t i o n a l c o n c o r d w i t h a v i e w to o r g a n i z i n g g e n e r a l e l e c t i o n s . i n S o u t h V i e t n a m . . . . 

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