UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

Input-output analysis and the study of economic and environmental interactions Victor, Peter Alan 1971

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1971_A1 V52.pdf [ 20.48MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0101779.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0101779-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0101779-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0101779-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0101779-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0101779-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0101779-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0101779-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0101779.ris

Full Text

INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS AND THE STUDY OF ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL.INTERACTIONS by PETER ALAN VICTOR B.Soc.Sc. (E.P.S.) U n i v e r s i t y o f Birmingham, 1967  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE  REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY  i n the Department of Economics  We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as conforming required  THE  t o the  standard  UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1971  In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s  in p a r t i a l  f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s  an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , the L i b r a r y I further  s h a l l make i t f r e e l y  available for  agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e  I agree  r e f e r e n c e and copying of t h i s  It  i s understood that copying or  thesis  permission.  Department  of  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8 , Canada  Date  [Ch"  ttr-UII  or  publication  o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my written  that  study.  f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s .  for  /BSTRACT  T h i s t h e s i s i s an attempt  t o a p p l y the t e c h n i q u e o f i n p u t -  output a n a l y s i s t o the study o f t h e r e l a t i o n s between an economy and t h e environment  which s u p p o r t s i t .  The opening  c h a p t e r c o n t a i n s a b r i e f j u s t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e use o f i n p u t output a n a l y s i s f o r t h i s purpose.  I t i s argued t h a t i n p u t -  output models, which r e c o g n i s e many o f the i n t e r a c t i o n s among consumers and p r o d u c e r s , can be extended account  so t h a t they a l s o take  o f some o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s among consumers, p r o d u c e r s ,  and the n a t u r a l environment.  Emphasis i s p l a c e d upon the f l o w  o f m a t e r i a l s between t h e environment  and t h e economy.  p r o d u c t s f l o w from t h e economy t o t h e environment goods f l o w i n t h e o p p o s i t e  Waste  and ' f r e e '  direction.  There f o l l o w s , i n t h e second c h a p t e r , a review o f t h e work o f t h r e e w r i t e r s who have e x p l o r e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f u s i n g g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m and i n p u t - o u t p u t models t o study man's impact  on t h e environment.  economists  The model p r e s e n t e d by these  a r e each found t o p o s s e s s u n s a t i s f a c t o r y f e a t u r e s .  The t h e o r e t i c a l core o f t h e d i s s e r t a t i o n i s an a d a p t a t i o n o f two r e c e n t l y developed i n p u t - o u t p u t models. and  Waste p r o d u c t s  ' f r e e ' goods a r e i n t r o d u c e d i n t o b o t h models i n s e v e r a l  d i f f e r e n t ways.  The data requirements of the various models  d i f f e r considerably and only the simplest of the models can be applied t o the data on waste products and 'free' goods that are currently a v a i l a b l e .  Canadian data, much of which were  c o l l e c t e d e s p e c i a l l y f o r t h i s study, and the methods used i n i t s estimation, are described i n the fourth chapter. Chapter f i v e i s a summary of the r e s u l t s obtained from using the data on waste products and 'free' goods i n conjunction with the Canadian input-output accounts f o r 1961.  These r e s u l t s  include estimates of the wastes produced and 'free' goods used i n the production and consumption of one d o l l a r ' s worth of each type of commodity manufactured i n Canada.  The r e s u l t s also  include estimates of the P r o v i n c i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f waste products and 'free' goods that were associated with Canadian economic a c t i v i t y i n 1961.  Furthermore, an attempt i s made to  rank the commodities produced and consumed i n Canada, i n terms of the r e l a t i v e impact on the environment of t h e i r production and consumption.  The f i n a l experiment i l l u s t r a t e s a method  of estimating theecologic implications of changing the pattern of Canadian consumption.  To show t h i s an estimate i s made  of the e f f e c t s of t r a n s f e r r i n g 50 per cent of Canadian passenger car t r a v e l to public tansportation.  The  l a s t c h a p t e r of the t h e s i s i s a d i s c u s s i o n o f  uses t o which the models and r e s u l t s might be put Government p o l i c y . the p r o d u c t i o n  Various  in  the  formulating  methods are: examined o f b r i n g i n g  o f wastes and  use  r e a l m o f the market economy.  o f ' f r e e ' goods w i t h i n  the  I t i s argued t h a t a l t h o u g h i t  i s g e n e r a l l y more e f f i c i e n t t o p r i c e the wastes and  ' f r e e ' goods  d i r e c t l y t h i s p o l i c y can o n l y s e r v e as a l o n g term goal.. the s h o r t term i t i s suggested t h a t , f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e emphasis s h o u l d  be p l a c e d on l e v y i n g t a x e s on  consumption.  reasons,  commodities so  t h e i r market p r i c e s r e f l e c t the e c o l o g i c c o s t o f t h e i r and  In  that  production  A schedule o f the r e l a t i v e s i z e s o f such  t a x e s i s e s t i m a t e d u s i n g a model developed f o r the purpose together  w i t h the  d a t a c o l l e c t e d as p a r t o f t h i s  study.  In c o n c l u s i o n , the o v e r a l purpose o f the d i s s e r t a t i o n i s t o suggest a method o f a n a l y s i s r a t h e r t h a n t o comprehensive r e s u l t s . intended  The  present  r e s u l t s which are o b t a i n e d  are  t o be no more t h a n i n d i c a t i v e o f what would be  p o s s i b l e i f more a c c u r a t e  and  comprehensive d a t a were a v a i l a b l e .  CHAPTER I  INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY ................  1  A.  A Perspective on Economics  1  B.  Standard Economic Theory and the Study o f Economic and Environmental Relations .,...  3  The Empirical Results  6  C.  CHAPTER II  A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF MODELS THAT INCLUDE THE INTERACTIONS OF ECONOMIC SOCIETY AND THE ENVIRONMENT .... 14  A.  Introduction  14  B.  The Ayres-Kneese Model  1'+  C.  The Daly Model  30  D.  The Isard Model  36  COMMODITY BY INDUSTRY INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS AND THE STUDY OF ECONOMIC-SCOLOGIC INTERRELATIONS  49  CHAPTER I I I  A.  Introduction  B.  The Conceptual Framework  49  C.  The Accounting Framework  53  D.  The Commodity-by-Industry Accounting Scheme  59  E.  :.. 49  A n a l y t i c a l Models and Commodity-by-Industry Accounts 67  PAGE  CHAPTER I I I E . 1.  The  D.B.S. M o d e l ( E x c l u d i n g  Ecologic  Commodities)  69  The D.B.S. M o d e l W i t h I m p o r t s D e t e r m i n e d Endogenously  73  E . 3.  The D.B.S. M o d e l a n d P r i m a r y I n p u t s .....  78  E . 4.  The R o s e n b l u t h M o d e l ( E x c l u d i n g Commodities)  80  E . 2.  Ecologic  E . 5.  The R o s e n b l u t h M o d e l w i t h Endogenously  Imports Determined 83  E . 6.  The R o s e n b l u t h M o d e l a n d P r i m a r y I n p u t s  F.  A P r e l i m i n a r y C o m p a r i s o n o f t h e D.B.S. a n d the R o s e n b l u t h Input-Output Models 86  G.  The I n t r o d u c t i o n o f E c o l o g i c I n t o t h e Models  85  Commodities 88  G. 1.  The  D.B.S. M o d e l a n d E c o l o g i c C o m m o d i t i e s  G. 2.  The R o s e n b l u t h M o d e l , E c o l o g i c and L i n e a r Programming  CHAPTER I V  A STUDY OF THE PRODUCTION M P DISPOSAL OF WASTES IN CANADA FOR THE YEAR 1 3 6 1 123  A.  Introduction  B.  The E s t i m a t i o n An O v e r v i e w  C. 1.  The Use o f W a t e r a n d t h e P r o d u c t i o n o f W a t e r • borne Wastes i n Canada, 1961 130  ,  89  Commodities 113  123  o f t h e P r o d u c t i o n o f Wastes: 125  CHAPTER IV  PAGE  C. l . a )  The Use o f Water i n Canadian M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y and t h e P r o d u c t i o n o f Waterborne Wastes (D.B.S. 4-11) 130  C. l . b )  A B r i e f E v a l u a t i o n o f the Estimates o f B.O.D. and S e t t l e a b l e and Suspended Solids  143  C. l . c )  The P r o d u c t i o n o f Other C a t e g o r i e s o f Waterborne Wastes by Canadian M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y i n 1961 (D.B.S. 4-11) 145  C. 2.  The Use o f Water i n Non-Manufacturing I n d u s t r i e s i n Canada, 1961  153  The Use o f Water f o r A g r i c u l t u r e i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S.I)  155  The Use o f Water f o r t h e P r o d u c t i o n o f Thermal E l e c t r i c i t y by U t i l i t i e s i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 14)  156  C. 2.a)  C. 2.b)  C. 3.  The Use o f Water f o r Domestic Purposes and t h e Domestic and Commercial P r o d u c t i o n o f Waterborne Wastes i n Canada, 1961 .... 158  C. 3.a)  Human E x c r e t a i n Canada, 1961  159  C. 3.b)  The Treatment and D i s p o s a l o f Human Wastes  160  An E s t i m a t i o n o f t h e M u n i c i p a l Discharge o f Wastes i n t o Canadian Wasters, 1961 (D.B.S. 14)  161  C. 3.c)  D.  The P r o d u c t i o n o f Wastes by L i v e s t o c k and P o u l t r y i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 1) 174  E . 1.  The E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes as a Consequence o f Economic A c t i v i t y i n Canada, 1961  180  CHAPTER IV  PAGE  E. 2,  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Combustion of Fuels by Canadian Manufacturing Industry, 1961 (D.B.S. 4-11) 181  E. 3.  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Combustion of Fuels by the Canadian Mineral Industry, 1961 (D.B.S. 2-3)  188  The Emission of Airborne Wastes From Electricity Generation in Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 14)  194  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Domestic Use of Mineral Fuels in Canada, 1961  203  E. 4.  E. 5.  E. 6.  The Emission of Airborne Wastes From the Commercial Use of Mineral Fuels in Canada, 1961 205  E. 7.  The Emission of Airborne Wastrs from the Use of Mineral Fuels by Governments, Police and Armed Forces in Canada, 1961 207  S, 8.  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Use of Mineral Fuels for Transportation in Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 13) 208  E. 8.a)  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Combustion of Petroleum Products by Commercial Motor Vehicles in Canada, 1961 210  E. 8,b)  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from Passenger Cars and Motor Cycles in Canada, 1961 . . . . 226  E. 8.c)  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Combustion of Mineral Fuels by Railways in Canada, 1961  E. 8.d)  229  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Combustion of Mineral Fuels for Marine Purposes in Canada, 1961 235  CHAPTE R IV E. 8.e)  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Combustion of Mineral Fuels by the Transportation Industry i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 13)  242  E. 9.  The Emission o f Airborne Wastes from the Combustion of Mineral Fuels by the Forestry Indsutry i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 1) 246  E. 10.  The Emission of Airborne Wastes by Canadian Industry i n 1961 Attributable to A c t i v i t i e s Other than Fuel Consumption 248  E. 10.a)  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from the Manufacture of Sulphuric Acid i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 10)  248  E. 10.b)  The Emission of Ammonia from the Production of Ammonia i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 10) ... 249  E. 10.c)  The Emission of Flouride from the Production of Aluminium i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 8) .. 249  E. 10.d)  The Emission of Particulate Wastes from the Production of Steel i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 8) 249  E. 10.s)  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from Petroleum Refining i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 10)  255  The Emission of Sulphur Dioxide from the Smelting o f Metals i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 8)  258  E. 10.f)  E. 10.g)  The Emission o f Airborne Wastes from Kraft Pulp M i l l s i n Canada and the Provinces, 1961 (D.B.S. 7) 258  E. 11.  The Emission of Airborne Wastes from Municipal Disposal of Refuse i n Canada, 1961 (D.B.S. 14) 261  F.  The Production and Disposal o f Refuse i n Canada, 1961  267  CHAPTER IV  PAGE  F. 1.  Refuse P r o d u c t i o n  F. 2.  Refuse C o l l e c t i o n  F. 3.  Refuse D i s p o s a l  277  G.  A Summary o f t h e Data  282  H.  The G e o g r a p h i c a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Economic A c t i v i t y i n Canada, 1961  292  A g r i c u l t u r e , F o r e s t r y , F i s h i n g and Trapping (D.B.S. 1)  292  H. 1.  H. 2.  268 .•  271  Mines and Q u a r r i e s E x c l u d i n g C o a l Mines (D.B.S. 2)  293  H. 3.  M i n e r a l F u e l Mines and W e l l s (D.B.S. 3) .. 293  H. 4.  M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y (D.B.S. 4-11)  297  H. 5.  Other I n d u s t r i e s (D.B.S. 12-16)  305  H. 6.  F i n a l Demand  310  CHAPTER V  SOME EXAMPLES OF THE USE OF ECOLOGIC INPUTOUTPUT MODELS 335  A.  Introduction  B.  The D. B.S. Model and the Canadian Economy 336  B. 1.  E c o l o g i c Impact T a b l e s  337  B. 2.  The E c o l o g i c C o s t c f Economic Commodities  357  B. 3.  The G e o g r a p h i c a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f E c o l o g i c Commodities  368  The R o s e n b l u t h Model and t h e Canadian . Economy  371  C.  335  CHAPTER V C. 1.  PAGE An Estimation of the Ecologic Cost of A Transfer from Private to Public Transportation  381  C. 2.  An Evaluation of the Results  390  CHAPTER VI  CONCLUSION: THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY  403  A.  Introduction  403  B.  Patterns of Consumption and Methods of Production  404  Taxation and the Regulation of Economic Activity  408  C.  SUMMARY OF ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THE TABLES  416  DEFINITION OF MEASURES  416  GLOSSARY  417  LIST OF TABLES  PAGE  TABLE 1.  D a l y ' s Input-Output  Table  33  2.  I s a r d ' s Input-Output  Table  3.  An E c o n o m i c - E c o l o g i c  Input-Output  4.  The Use o f Water by U n i t e d ; S t a t e s M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s i n 1964 and Canadian M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s i n 1961  38 Table  54  131  5.  A Comparison o f the Use o f Water by I n d u s t r i e s i n C a l i f o r n i a and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n 1963 149  6.  A d j u s t e d Waste Load C o e f f i c i e n t s f c r I n d u s t r i a l Waste Water (Ton/$ M i l l i o n ) 152  7.  The Output o f Some Waterborne Wastes by Canadian M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s , i n 1961  154  E s t i m a t e d Consumption o f Water by L i v e s t o c k and P o u l t r y i n 1961  157  8.  9.  Canadian  Tonnage o f Wastes D i s c h a r g e d i n t o Canadian Water D r u i n g 1961 v i a M u n i c i p a l Sewer System  162  10.  Canadian  Sewerage Works S t a t i s t i c s , 1960  164  11.  Approximate Performance o f C o n v e n t i o n a l Treatments o f M u n i c i p a l Wastes  166  The E x t e n t o f Sewers and Sewage P l a n t s i n Canada, 1961  170  12.  13.  14.  Treatment  P r o v i n c i a l P r o d u c t i o n o f Wastes by L i v e s t o c k on Canadian Farms, 1961  175  P r o v i n c i a l P r o d u c t i o n o f Wastes by P o u l t r y on Canadian I arms, 1961  176  15.  16.  The D i s t r i b u t i o n o f L i v e s t o c k and P o u l t r y by P r o v i n c e , 1961  178  The D i s t r i b u t i o n o f L i v e s t o c k and P o u l t r y Waste by P r o v i n c e , 1961  179  17.  E m i s s i o n F a c t o r s used t o E s t i m a t e the A i r b o r n e Wastes from the Combustion o f F u e l s by Canadian I n d u s t r i e s , 1961 182  18.  A i r b o r n e Wastes from F u e l Consumption by Canadian M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y , 1961  184  19.  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from F u e l Consumption i n the Canadian M i n e r a l I n d u s t r y , 1961 ( A l l M i n i n g Except M i n e r a l F u e l s ) 190  20.  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from F u e l Consumption i n the Canadian M i n e r a l F u e l s I n d u s t r y , D u r i n g 1961  192  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from E l e c t r i c i t y G e n e r a t i o n i n Canada, 1961  196  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f the P r o d u c t i o n o f Thermal E l e c t r i c Power, 1961  198  A Summary o f E m i s s i o n F a c t o r s used f o r E s t i m a t i n g t h e E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from V a r i o u s Economic A c t i v i t i e s  199  21.  22.  23.  24.  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from t h e Domestic use o f M i n e r a l F u e l s i n Canada, 1961 204  25.  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from the Commercial Use o f M i n e r a l F u e l s i n Canada, 1961 206  26.  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from t h e Combustion o f M i n e r a l F u e l s by F e d e r a l and P r o v i n c i a l Governments, P o l i c e and Armed F o r c e s i n Canada, 1961 209  27.  28.  29.  30.  31.  32.  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from Motor V e h i c l e s i n Canada and t h e P r o v i n c e s , 1961  211  T o t a l E m i s s i o n s from t h e Use o f G a s o l i n e and D i e s e l O i l From Motor V e h i c l e s i n Canada and the P r o v i n c e s , 1961  213  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from Truck T r a f f i c i n Canada and the P r o v i n c e s , 1961  215  T o t a l E m i s s i o n s from t h e Use o f G a s o l i n e and D i e s e l O i l by Truck T r a f f i c i n Canada and the P r o v i n c e s , 1961  217  A i r b o r n e Wastes from the Urban T r a n s i t System i n Canada and the P r o v i n c e s , 1961  218  T o t a l E m i s s i o n s from t h e Use o f G a s o l i n e and D i e s e l O i l by the Urabn T r a n s i t System i n Canada and the P r o v i n c e s  221  33.  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from the Passenger Bus S e r v i c e i n Canada and the P r o v i n c e s , 1961 222  34.  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f the Canadian P o p u l a t i o n , 1961  225  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from Passenger Cars i n Canada, 1961  227  The P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Passenger Cars ( I n c l u d i n g T a x i s ) i n Canada, 1961  228  E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from Canadian R a i l w a y s , by P r o v i n c e , 1961  230  35.  36.  37.  38.  A i r b o r n e Wastes from the T r a n s p o r t a t i o n I n d u s t r y i n Canada and the P r o v i n c e s , 1961: R a i l w a y s , T r u c k s , I n t e r - U r b a n and R u r a l Buses, Urban T r a n s i t ( A i r and Water T r a n s p o r t a t i o n are Excluded) 236  39.  40.  41.  42.  A i r b o r n e Wastes from t h e Use o f M i n e r a l F u e l s f o r Marine Purposes ( E x c l u d i n g t h e Navy) i n Canada, 1961  241  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from t h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n I n d u s t r y ( E x c l u d i n g A i r and Water T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) i n Canada, 1961  244  A i r b o r n e Wastes from the Combustion o f M i n e r a l F u e l s by t h e F o r e s t r y I n d u s t r y i n Canada, 1961  247  P a r t i c u l a t e Emissions Canada, 1961  251  from S t e e l M i l l s i n  43.  D e t a i l s o f the Canadian S t e e l I n d u s t r y , 1961 252  44.  P a r t i c u l a t e E m i s s i o n s from Secondary S t e e l Furnaces i n Canada, 1961  256  E m i s s i o n s o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from R e f i n i n g i n Canada, 1961  257  45.  46.  47.  48.  49.  50.  Petroleum  E m i s s i o n o f Sulphur D i o x i d e from the M e t a l l u r g i c a l I n d u s t r y i n Canada, 1961 E m i s s i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from K r a f t M i l l s i n Canada and P r o v i n c e s  259 Pulp 250  E m i s s i o n F a c t o r s f o r M u n i c i p a l Refuse D i s p o s a l : I n c i n e r a t i o n and Open B u r n i n g  262  E s t i m a t e s o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from M u n i c i p a l Refuse I n c i n e r a t i o n i n Canada, 1961  265  E s t i m a t e d Q u a n t i t i e s o f L i q u i d Waste i n M e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o , 1966  Discharged 270  E s t i m a t e d Q u a n t i t i e s o f Refuse C o l l e c t e d i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Toronto A r e a , 1966  274  52.  Average Refuse C o l l e c t e d , Pounds Per Person Per Day, U n i t e d S t a t e s o f America, 1968  275  Sample M u n i c i p a l Refuse Composition: U n i t e d S t a t e s E a s t C o a s t , 1968, Compared with. T o r o n t o , 1967  276  54.  Products  281  55.  I n v e n t o r y o f "Free"Goods and Waste Canada, 1961  53.  56.  57.  58.  59.  60.  61.  62.  from A W e l l Designed I n c i n e r a t o r Products,  284  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n of the A g r i c u l t u r e , F o r e s t r y , F i s h i n g and T r a p p i n g I n d u s t r y Group, 1961  294  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f the Mines and Q u a r r i e s ( E x c l u d i n g C o a l Mines) I n d u s t r y Group, 1961  295  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f the M i n e r a l F u e l Mines and Wells I n d u s t r y Group, 1961  296  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Canadian M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y , 1961, by Value o f S a l e s ($)  298  Provincial Distribution M a n u f a c t u r i n g S a l e s ($) C l a s s i f i e d According to t h e D.B.S. Input-Output  303  o f Canadian by I n d u s t r i e s the I n d u s t r i e s i n Model, 1961  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Canadian M a n u f a c t u r i n g S a l e s as a Percentage o f t o t a l Canadian M a n u f a c t u r i n g S a l e s , 1961  304  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A i r b o r n e Wastes from t h e Trade and T r a n s p o r t I n d u s t r y , 1961  306  63.  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Airborne Wastes, b y P e r C e n t , from t h e Trade and T r a n s p o r t I n d u s t r y , 1961  307  64.  P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Waterborne Wastes by P e r Cent, from t h e M u n i c i p a l Sewer Systems, 1961 309  65:  E c o l o g i c Impact T a b l e w i t h o u t Import Leakages ( P o u n d s / D o l l a r o f F i n a l Demand)  339  E c o l o g i c Impact T a b l e w i t h Import Leakages ( P o u n d s / D o l l a r o f F i n a l Demand)  349  S o c i a l Weights f o r t h e E c o l o g i c Commodities  363  The R e l a t i v e E c o l o g i c C o s t o f P r o d u c i n g and Consuming One D o l l a r ' s Worth o f Each Economic Commodity ( U s i n g t h e Weights o f T a b l e 67)  366  66.  67.  68.  69.  The R e l a t i v e E c o l o g i c C o s t o f P r o d u c i n g and Consuming One D o l l a r ' s Worth o f Each Economic Commodity ( A l l A i r b o r n e Wastes are Weighted by U n i t y . A l l o t h e r E c o l o g i c Commodities a r e Weighted by Z e r o ) 369  70.  The P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f E c o l o g i c Inputs and Outputs o f Canadian I n d u s t r y , 1961(Tons)  372  The P r o v i n c i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f E c o l o g i c Inputs and Outputs A t t r i b u t e d D i r e c t l y t o F i n a l Deaand i n Canada, 1961  375  The R e l a t i v e E c o l o g i c Cost o f Economic A c t i v i t i e s i n Canada, 1961  379  71.  72.  73.  74.  An Estimate of the Relative Ecologic Cost o f Transferring 50 per cent of Passenger Car Transportation i n Canada, 1961 to the Public Transportation System  396  An Estimate of the Change i n I n d u s t r i a l A c t i v i t y Brought About by a Transfer o f 50 Per Cent of Private Transportation to the Public Transportation System i n Canada, 1961  391  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to record my thanks to a number of people  who  gave me invaluable help i n the p r e p a r a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s . order to reach i t s present form the thesis passed  In  through  many typewriters. Most notable were those of Susan Aizenman and Jane Douglas of the University of B r i t i s h Columbia and Cindy Rowe and Sandy Sharpies of the University of Kent at Canterbury.  I am very g r a t e f u l for the help i n computer  programming given me by a l l members of the S t a t i s t i c s Laboratory at U.B.C, especially from Dave Malcolm, Steve H o l l e t t and Judy B i r d .  My thanks are due to Arthur Smolensky who  acted  as my interpreter of the many s c i e n t i f i c papers that I was obliged t o read i n order to write, t h i s t h e s i s .  I should also  l i k e to thank a l l the members of my examining committee f o r t h e i r h e l p f u l c r i t i c i s m s at an e a r l i e r stage, and p a r t i c u l a r l y Dr. David Donaldson who of study.  f i r s t aroused my interest i n t h i s area  Above a l l I am indebted to Professor Gideon  Rosenbluth f o r the erudite supervision which he so generously gave.  F i n a l l y I thank my friends John Dickenson and Robin  Hanv«Lt with whom I l i v e d during the time I wrote the thesis and whose happy company made the arduous task immeasurably easier for me.  CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  A PERSPECTIVE ON ECONOMICS The Western i n t e l l e c t u a l t r a d i t i o n has i t that one gains knowledge of the Universe by focussing attention on some aspects of i t . At a much more immediate l e v e l , one gains 1  knowledge o f human society by concentrating only on selected aspects of that society.  Consequently, some people become  p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s , seme become s o c i o l o g i s t s , some become economists and so on. Although s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s , whatever t h e i r d i s c i p l i n e , may be w e l l aware of the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s among the whole gamut o f s o c i a l phenomena, i t i s often overlooked that, as s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s , they are already operating at what, i n a sense, i s a second degree of abstraction.  The  t o t a l i t y of human society i s i t s e l f only a subset of a l l that constitutes the Universe.  I t follows that s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s  must project t h e i r horizons i n two d i r e c t i o n s i f they are to escape the narrow confines of t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r  discipline.  Social s c i e n t i s t s , as students of society, have much to gain from exploring the work of researchers  i n s o c i a l sciences  other than that t o which they may be professionally committed. And  i n the recognition o f luankindfedependence on the physical  world of which he i s a member i t may be f r u i t f u l f o r the s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t to address himself d i r e c t l y to some of the more important l i n k s between society and the material environment in which i t i s embedded.  I t i s the purpose of t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n  to draw attention to the r e l a t i o n s between a society's economic a c t i v i t y , as t r a d i t i o n a l l y defined, and the physical world which provides the stage f o r the larger drama. Taking the view, then, that economic a c t i v i t y i s a part of human society, and that i n turn, society i t s e l f i s only a subset of the phenomena that constitute the Universe, the focus of t h i s study w i l l be the connections between human society and the rest of the Universe that are attributable to economic a c t i v i t y .  These include the inputs from the  environment}^ industry, such as oxygen, used i n the combustion of mineral f u e l s .  Also included are the i n d u s t r i a l outputs  which are fed back into the environment i products.  n  the form of waste  An attempt w i l l be made to e s t a b l i s h functional  r e l a t i o n s between the extent and character of economic a c t i v i t y and the flow of materials i n both d i r e c t i o n s between the economy and the environment. I t w i l l be shown that e x i s t i n g economic models can be extended, both t h e o r e t i c a l l y and empirically, so that the q u a l i t y and quantity of these material flows becomadetermined by the economic a c t i v i t y of society.  B.  STANDARD ECONOMIC THEORY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIONS  THE  STUDY OF ECONOMIC  AND  The r e s i d u a l s o f p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e s , v a r i o u s l y p o l l u t a n t s , contaminants  called:  and wastes p r o d u c t , have t r a d i t i o n a l l y  been t r e a t e d as e x t r a o r d i n a r y i n the l i t e r a t u r e o f  economics.  T h i s i s a l s o t r u e o f ' f r e e goods' taken d i r e c t l y from the environment.  The t h e o r y o f e x t e r n a l i t i e s , which has been  developed t o d e a l w i t h t h e s e phenomena and o t h e r m a t t e r s , has l a r g e l y been d i r e c t e d t o t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f events i n v o l v i n g o n l y s m a l l numbers o f p a r t i c i p a n t s .  In c o n t r a s t  t o t h i s , t h e t h e o r y o f p u b l i c goods does a l l o w and r e q u i r e s l a r g e numbers o f p a r t i c i p a n t s .  perhaps  However, the e f f e c t s  o f o n l y some t y p e s o f waste p r o d u c t s , f o r example e m i s s i o n s from a u t o m o b i l e s , may  u s e f u l l y be thought o f a s ' p u b l i c ' .  Waste p r o d u c t s are n e i t h e r unusual nor are t h e i r  effects  c o n f i n e d t o e i t h e r v e r y s m a l l groups o f people o r v e r y l a r g e groups o f p e o p l e .  Moreover, w h i l e t h e s e t r a d i t i o n a l  approaches  a r e o f l i m i t e d use i n a n a l y s i n g the output o f wastes r e c e i v e d by the environment,  t h e y a r e even l e s s h e l p f u l i n t h e study o f the  f l o w o f i n p u t s from the environment  t o t h e economy.  What i s  r e q u i r e d i s a methodology t h a t e x p l i c i t l y r e c o g n i z e s t h a t t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f economic commodities  requires flows of materials  b o t h t o and from the environment.  H a t t e r , except i n s o f a r  as  i t can be c o n v e r t e d i n t o and from energy, or created.  cannot  be  destroyed  Some a s p e c t s o f t h i s rearrangement i n the  course  o f economic a c t i v i t y are d e s i r a b l e : t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f goods and s e r v i c e s , and some a r e u n d e s i r a b l e : t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f wastes. In a l l p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e s , a t the micro and macro l e v e l , the q u a n t i t y o f waste p r o d u c t s must be s u f f i c i e n t t o s a t i s f y t h e p h y s i c a l law o f t h e c o n s e r v a t i o n o f mass.  Of c o u r s e , a  s u i t a b l e methodology f o r the i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f economic and e n v i r o n m e n t a l r e l a t i o n s must do more than comply w i t h t h i s fundamental p h y s i c a l law.  I t must a l l o w f o r a l l forms o f r e s o u r c e  use  and a l l forms o f waste product d i s p o s a l , t h a t i s v i a a i r , water and l a n d .  N e a r l y a l l the e x i s t i n g economic a n a l y s i s o f waste  p r o d u c t s has been a p p l i e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y t o a i r , water o r land p o l l u t i o n , d e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t these three  environmental  s e c t o r s a r e s u b s i t u t e s f o r each o t h e r as r e c e p t a c l e s f o r most forms o f waste. A methodology which acknowledges a v a r i e t y o f f l o w s between the economy and the environment v a r i e t y of production prcesses.  must admit a  W i t h i n economic t h e o r y ,  a W a l r a s i a n g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m model and L e o n t i e f ' s i n p u t output a n a l y s i s , are t h e o b v i o u s t o o l s , p r o v i d i n g they can be adapted  t o s a t i s f y the law o f c o n s e r v a t i o n o f mass  which i s fundamental t o the i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f economic and  environmental  interrelations.  Ayres and Kneese, i n a 1969  2 article,  have shown how t h e W a l r a s i a n framework may be  extended  t o i n c l u d e some o f t h e s e r e l a t i o n s . T h e i r work i s  reviewed  i n t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r and a l t h o u g h some  important  weaknesses i n t h e i r f o r m u l a t i o n a r e p o i n t e d o u t , t h e i r  attempt  t o adapt the g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m framework i s t o be commended. The p r e s e n t study, w i t h i t s emphasis on e m p i r i c i s m , b u i l d s on some r e c e n t work i n i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s and extends output models so t h a t economic-environmental brought  two i n p u t -  r e l a t i o n s are  i n t o t h e framework.  Input-output  models a r e based on a c c o u n t i n g i d e n t i t i e s .  The  models become a n a l y t i c a l o n l y when v a r i o u s assumptions a r e made about t h e n a t u r e o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s i n t h e economic system.  M a t e r i a l f l o w s t o and from t h e environment can be  c o n v e n i e n t l y i n c l u d e d i n i n p u t - o u t p u t models, without u p s e t t i n g t h e a c c o u n t i n g i d e n t i t i e s , by adding an e n v i r o n m e n t a l s e c t o r , which can be s u b d i v i d e d i n t o a i r , water and l a n d .  Flows o f  m a t t e r from t h e s e s u b s e c t o r s t o i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s , mines and people must be e x a c t l y b a l a n c e d by e q u i v a l e n t f l o w s  from  i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s , mines and p e o p l e back t o t h e environment, p l u s any m a t e r i a l t h a t i s accumulated i n v e n t o r i e s and consumer d u r a b l e s .  as c a p i t a l equipment,  In maintaining the  a c c o u n t i n g i d e n t i t i e s t h e p h y s i c a l law o f t h e c o n s e r v a t i o n  o f mass i s s a t i s f i e d . In view o f t h e n e c e s s a r y p r o d u c t i o n o f wastes i n a l l p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e s , e v e r y good o r s e r v i c e i s a j o i n t p r o d u c t . T h i s phenomenon can be handled more e a s i l y i n an i n p u t - o u t p u t  model  c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o i n d u s t r y and commodity r a t h e r than j u s t industry.  Furthermore, a commodity-by-industry c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  does not r e q u i r e t h a t each commodity be measured units.  i n t h e same  T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l when some commodities, i n  t h i s case waste p r o d u c t s , a r e not t r a d e d i n t h e market and t h e r e f o r e have no e x p l i c i t d o l l a r  C.  value.  THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS A l a r g e p a r t o f t h i s study i s devoted t o e s t i m a t i n g t h e use o f water and t h e output o f waste p r o d u c t s a t t r i b u t a b l e economic a c t i v i t y i n 1961.  The d a t a are summarised  t o Canadian  i n T a b l e 55  (Chapter IV, p.28+) which shows how t h e a c t i v i t y o f each o f 17 i n d u s t r y groups and t h e f i n a l demand f o r t h r e e commodities used water and produced waterborne, a i r b o r n e and landJborne wastes. For  example, Column 1, Row  4, shows t h a t 4-5,400 m i l l i o n  gallons  o f water were used by t h e f o o d and t o b a c c o i n d u s t r y group i n 1961.  T h i s same group d i s c h a r g e d 41,000 m i l l i o n g a l l o n s o f  water (Column 5, Row  4) o f -which 8,300 m i l l i o n g a l l o n s were  t r e a t e d p r i o r t o d i s c h a r g e (Column 6, Row  4).  The d i s c h a r g e d  water c o n t a i n e d ,among o t h e r t h i n g s , 188,500 tons o f s e t t l e a b l e and suspended s o l i d s (Column 8, Row 4 ) .  As T a b l e 55 shows, t h e  f o o d and tobacco  a variety of airborne  i n d u s t r y group produced  wastes i n 1961, i n c l u d i n g 17,173 tons o f n i t r o g e n o x i d e s (Column 15, Row 4 ) .  T a b l e 55 i n c l u d e s d a t a f o r 4 t y p e s o f water use t o g e t h e r  w i t h 10 measures o f waterborne waste, 15 t y p e s o f a i r b o n e waste and two t y p e s o f landborne  waste.  T a b l e 55 i s u s e f u l f o r two main purposes.  The f i r s t  i s to  e s t a b l i s h t h e magnitude f o r Canada o f what has come t o be knoBrn as t h e ' p o l l u t i o n problem'.  Because o f t h e shortage o f d a t a i n  Canada much o f t h e debate, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e news media and a l s o i n t h e p o l i t i c a l sphere, has had t o r e l y on i n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e United States.  Although  i t was n e c e s s a r y t o use U n i t e d S t a t e s  f i g u r e s f o r some o f t h e e s t i m a t e s i n t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r water u s e , many o f the e s t i m a t e s were made d i r e c t l y Canadian d a t a .  with  I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g , t h e r e f o r e , t o compare t h e  U n i t e d S t a t e s d a t a w i t h t h e d a t a c o l l e c t e d i n t h i s study f o r Canada. It i s reported by weight, produced  t h a t i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , 60 p e r c e n t  o f a l l a i r b o r n e wastes from economic a c t i v i t y , a r e  by automobiles, whereas, i n Candada, d u r i a g 1961, o n l y 4  36 p e r cent appear t o have come from t h i s s o u r c e .  However, i f  carbon monoxide i s excluded from t h e c a l c u l a t i o n , automobiles i n Canada c o n t r i b u t e d 27 p e r cent o f a l l a i r b o r n e wastes, by weight compared w i t h 29 p e r cent i n . t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .  This similarity  i s what one would expect, a l t h o u g h i t i s u s e f u l t o know t h a t t h e p o p u l a r r u l e o f thumb comparisons  o f the performances,  r e s p e c t t o waste p r o d u c t s , o f t h e Candian  with  and U n i t e d S t a t e s  5 economies a r e w e l l founded The  second purpose  waste p r o d u c t s may  .  f o r which the d a t a on water use  be used i s t o f i t two o f the s i m p l e s t i n p u t -  output models developed  i n the study which i n c l u d e u n p r i c e d i n p u t s  from and o u t p u t s t o t h e environment. models, two  and  U s i n g the f i r s t o f t h e s e  impact t a b l e s are generated which show t h e m a t e r i a l  f l o w s between t h e Canadian  economy and t h e environment a s s o c i a t e d  w i t h t h e s u p p l y o f one d o l l a r ' s worth o f each o f 40 economic commodities t o " f i n a l demand".  The  impact t a b l e s d i f f e r  treatment g i v e n t o imports i n t h e models on are based.  In one model imports  i n the  which t h e t a b l e s  a r e determined  endogenously  so  t h a t t h e impact t a b l e d e r i v e d from t h e model a u t o m a t i c a l l y a l l o w s for of  t h e imports t h a t are n e c e s s a r y t o s u p p l y one d o l l a r ' s worth each commodity t o f i n a l demand.  In the o t h e r model imports  are t r e a t e d as exogenous so t h a t t h e impact t a b l e d e r i v e d from t h e model does not a l l o w f o r import  leakages.  Some examples w i l l show the s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e s e Without  differences.  a l l o w i n g f o r i m p o r t s , 268.5 pounds o f water a r e used  d i r e c t l y and i n d i r e c t l y t o s u p p l y one d o l l a r ' s worth o f c l o t h i n g to  consumers .  However, when import leakages a r e accounted f o r .  o n l y 180.5  pounds o f water a r e used t o s u p p l y one d o l l a r ' s worth 7  of  clothing to  Canadians.  Impact t a b l e s o f t h e t y p e developed u s e f u l for  i n t h i s study are  i n v e s t i g a t i n g the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r m a t e r i a l f l o w s t o  and from t h e environment Furthermore,  o f a l t e r n a t i v e p a t t e r n s o f f i n a l demand.  i t i s p o s s i b l e t o study t h e r e g i o n a l  distribution  of the m a t e r i a l flows a s s o c i a t e d with a given n a t i o n a l p a t t e r n of f i n a l demand.  As an example o f t h i s , the P r o v i n c i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f  water use and waste p r o d u c t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h Canadian a c t i v i t y i n 1961  are e s t i m a t e d .  economic  The P r o v i n c e o f O n t a r i o used  more water and produced more o f n e a r l y each type o f waste than 8 any o t h e r P r o v i n c e i n Canada d u r i n g 1961  .  O n t a r i o used  1.9  b i l l i o n t o n s o f water compared w i t h the second l a r g e s t u s e r , Quebec, a t 1.2  b i l l i o n tons.  At t h e o t h e r end o f the s c a l e  i s t h e Yukon and North West T e r r i t o r i e s which used v i r t u a l l y water.  Next comes P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d a t 7.6  then t h e o t h e r  m i l l i o n tons  P r o v i n c e s moving from e a s t t o west.  no and  Although  the  o r d e r i n g f o r each type o f waste d i f f e r s somewhat from t h a t o f water use, t h e g e n e r a l p i c t u r e i s t h a t O n t a r i o and Quebec the most waste i n 1961  produced  f o l l o w e d by the P r o v i n c e s g o i n g from west t o  e a s t , w i t h t h e Yukon and N o r t h West T e r r i t o r i e s p r o d u c i n g the The  impact  least.  t a b l e s , d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r , show the output o f  each t y p e o f waste and the i n p u t and use o f water a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f one d o l l a r ' s worth o f each commodity s u p p l i e d t o  f i n a l users.  S i m i l a r e s t i m a t e s may  be made f o r the use  of  water and output o f waste caused d i r e c t l y by t h e a c t o f consuming a d o l l a r ' s Worth o f each commodity.  By p l a c i n g a s o c i a l  v a l u a t i o n on each t y p e o f waste and each type o f water use impact t a b l e s can be used t o a r r i v e a t the r e l a t i v e c o s t o f p r o d u c i n g and consuming each commodity.  the  ecologic  Such a r e l a t i v e  w e i g h t i n g i s d e r i v e d u s i n g the d a t a c o l l e c t e d i n t h i s study w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t f o r example, t h e r e l a t i v e e c o l o g i c cost; o f paper and paper p r o d u c t s i s 15 per cent o f t h a t o f and c o a l p r o d u c t s .  The complete  petroleum  r a n k i n g i s g i v e n i n T a b l e 68 o f  Chapter V where each o f the 40 commodities are g i v e n a r e l a t i v e e c o l o g i c c o s t r a n g i n g from petroleum and c o a l p r o d u c t s e q u a l t o 1.0  down t o  communications a t 0.0095.  A l l the r e s u l t s summarized so f a r a r e d e r i v e d from same b a s i c i n p u t - o u t p u t model.  the  A r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t model i s  a l s o p r e s e n t e d which makes use o f l i n e a r programming t e c h n i q u e s . An index o f i n d u s t r y outputs based upon the e c o l o g i c c o s t o f t h e s e outputs i s m i n i m i z e d ,  s u b j e c t t o t h e requirement t h a t a  g i v e n amount o f each commodity be s u p p l i e d t o f i n a l use.  This  model i s used t o e s t i m a t e t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f a t r a n s f e r from passenger  car transportation to p u b l i c  transportation,  f o r b o t h t h e l e v e l o f i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y and t h e m a t e r i a l i n p u t s and o u t p u t s o f i n d u s t r i e s and consumers.  The o v e r a l l e f f e c t  of  t h i s t r a n s f e r on t h e e c o l o g i c c o s t o f Canadian economic a c t i v i t y i n 1961 i s a f a l l o f 8.6 p e r cent i n t h e index . T h i s i s composed o f a d e c l i n e i n t h e e c o l o g i c c o s t from t h e consumption o f petroleum p r o d u c t s and a r i s e i n t h e e c o l o g i c costs o f i n d u s t r i a l production.  As e x p l a i n e d i n t h e t e x t ,  (Chapter V p. 393) t h i s l a t t e r i n c r e a s e i s p r o b a b l y due t o t h e h i g h s  l e v e l o f a g g r e g a t i o n i n t h e d a t a which has t h e e f f e c t o f e x a g g e r a t i n g t h e r i g i d i t y o f t h e economic system.  Thus t h e  i n c r e a s e i n t h e v a l u e o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s p r e d i c t e d by t h e model, such as t h e 0.11 p e r cent r i s e i n t h e  output o f t h e  wood and f u r n i t u r e industry" "^, r e f l e c t s t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e d a t a 1  r a t h e r than t h a t o f t h e model  itself.  U n l i k e many r e s e a r c h s t u d i e s , t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n attempt  t o e s t a b l i s h the v a l i d i t y o f a hypothesis.  i n t e n d e d t o suggest  i s n o t an It i s  a way i n which an e s t a b l i s h e d economic  methodology c a n be brought  t o bear on a t o p i c o f g r e a t  social  s i g n i f i c a n c e . As t h e l i t e r a t u r e review i n t h e next c h a p t e r w i l l show, the a u t h o r i s n o t t h e o n l y person t o have made t h i s s u g g e s t i o n . However, i t would appear t h a t t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i s t h e f i r s t study i n which comprehensive e s t i m a t e s o f m a t e r i a l f l o w s a r e used t o extend  i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s e s i n o r d e r t o q u a n t i f y some  o f t h e more obvious l i n k s between t h e economy and t h e environment of a country.  FOOTNOTES - Chapter I  1.  T h i s i s i n c o n t r a s t t o those p h i l o s o p h i e s , p r i m a r i l y o f E a s t e r n o r i g i n , which'teach t h a t sense d a t a i s i l l u s o r y and t h a t t h e r e i s an u n d e r l y i n g u n i t y t o which men s h o u l d d i r e c t t h e i r thoughts.  2.  R.  A.-Ayres and A. V. Kneese,  " P r o d u c t i o n , Consumption  E x t e r n a l i t i e s " , American Economic  and  Review, LIX (June, 1969),  282-297.  3.  U. S. Department o f H e a l t h , E d u c a t i o n and W e l f a r e , The Sources o f A i r P o l l u t i o n and T h e i r C o n t r o l , P u b l i c H e a l t h S e r v i c e P u b l i c a t i o n No. 1548 (Washington, D.C., 1966).  The d a t a i n  t h i s p u b l i c a t i o n a r e f o r t h e y e a r 1965.  4.  T h i s e s t i m a t e i s based on d a t a from T a b l e s 35 and 55 o f Chapter IV.  The t o t a l weight o f a i r b o r n e w e i g h t s , from passenger  c a r s i n 1961 was 4,032,618 t o n s compared w i t h t h e t o t a l from a l l Canadian economic a c t i v i t y f o r t h a t y e a r o f 11,239,106 t o n s .  5.  Due t o t h e l a c k o f more d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n i n The Sources o f A i r P o l l u t i o n , from which t h e U.S. d a t a i s t a k e n , i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o check t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e carbon monoxide e m i s s i o n from automobiles i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .  6.  See row 1, column 15 o f Table 65, Chapter V, Page 341.  7.  See row 1, column 15 o f T a b l e 65, Chapter V, Page 351.  8.  See T a b l e 70, Chapter V, Pages 372-4.  9.  See T a b l e 73, Chapter V, Page  390.  10.  See T a b l e 74, Chapter V, Page  391.  CHAPTER I I A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF MODELS THAT INCLUDE THE INTERACTIONS OF ECONOMIC SOCIETY AND THE ENVIRONMENT  INTRODUCTION The p o s s i b i l i t y o f i n t e g r a t i n g economic and  ecological  models has been r e c o g n i s e d by a t l e a s t t h r e e writers."*  -  Isard  and D a l y b o t h suggest t h a t L e o n t i e f i n p u t - o u t p u t models can be adapted t o i n c o r p o r a t e e n v i r o n m e n t a l s e c t o r s and has begun c o l l e c t i n g d a t a f o r such a model. t o t h e s e w r i t e r s who  emphasise  Isard  In c o n t r a s t  the e m p i r i c a l a s p e c t s o f the  problem, a more t h e o r e t i c a l approach has been taken by Ayres and Kneese who  have made what they see as the n e c e s s a r y  r e v i s i o n s o f the W a l r a s - C a s s e l g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m model. T h i s c h a p t e r b e g i n s w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n o f Ayres and Kneese's work, f o l l o w e d by an examination o f the more pragmatic approaches  taken by I s a r d and D a l y .  THE AYRES-KNEESE MODEL The fundamental i d e a embodied i n the Ayres-Kneese i s that o f materials balance.  model  P a y i n g homage t o the law o f  c o n s e r v a t i o n o f mass Ayres and Kneese argue t h a t , except i n the p r o d u c t i o n o f atomic power, matter i s n e i t h e r c r e a t e d nor d e s t r o y e d i n the c o u r s e o f economic a c t i v i t y .  The  term  ' f i n a l consumption'  i s hence a misnomer i f i t i s t a k e n t o mean  t h a t " m a t e r i a l o b j e c t s such as f u e l s , m a t e r i a l s , a n d f i n i s h e d goods somehow d i s a p p e a r i n t o t h e v o i d " .  2  Ayres and  Kneese argue c o r r e c t l y t h a t "almost a l l o f s t a n d a r d economic 3  t h e o r y i s i n r e a l i t y concerned w i t h s e r v i c e s . "  Material  o b j e c t s a r e merely t h e v e h i c l e s which c a r r y some o f t h e s e services.  At the heart o f a l l t h i s i s the notion that materials  are t a k e n from t h e environment  and i n t r o d u c e d i n t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n  p r o c e s s e s o f an economy. ( F o r s i m l i f i c a t i o n Ayres and Kneese i g n o r e any m a t e r i a l s f l o w from t h e environment consumers).  directly to final  Some o f t h e s e i n p u t s a r e p u r c h a s e d , such as raw  m a t e r i a l s , w h i l e o t h e r s a r e o b t a i n e d w i t h o u t charge such as oxygen f o r combustion.  Economic p r o d u c t i o n i n v a r i a b l y i n v o l v e s waste  p r o d u c t s which a r e e i t h e r r e t u r n e d t o t h e environment o r r e c y c l e d back i n t o t h e economic p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s . such waste p r o d u c t s a r e r e c y c l e d t h e environment  Unless a l l  i s used as  a r e c e p t a c l e , a s e r v i c e which i s o n l y v e r y r a r e l y p a i d f o r by t h e p r o d u c e r o f t h e waste.  Of c o u r s e , some m a t e r i a l s  remain l o n g e r w i t h i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s than o t h e r s .  Capital  a c c u m u l a t i o n and t h e b u i l d up o f i n v e n t o r i e s may be r e g a r d e d as a s i d i n g i n t o which some m a t t e r i s shunted f o r a w h i l e u n t i l i t t o o i s d i s c a r d e d as waste.  Only a p o r t i o n o f t h e m a t e r i a l s t h a t e n t e r t h e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s f i n d s i t s way i n t o t h e hands o f consumers.  A p a r t from  the waste p r o d u c t s a l r e a d y mentioned, i n d u s t r i e s themselves consume much o f each o t h e r s ' output and sometimes some o f t h e i r own i n p u t t o o .  But t h a t p a r t which does become f i n a l consumption,  has i t found a r e s t i n g p l a c e ? Consumers  The answer i s q u i t e c l e a r l y , no.  g a i n s e r v i c e s from t h e goods they  good g i v e s s e r v i c e s i n p e r p e t u i t y .  'consume' b u t no consumer  Eventually materials i n  t h e form o f consumer goods a r e d i s c a r d e d e i t h e r t o be r e c y c l e d through the p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s o r t o be d e p o s i t e d back i n t o t h e environment. The t r a d i t i o n a l W a l r a s i a n model a l l o w s f o r a l l  these  t r a n s f e r s o f m a t e r i a l s except f o r the unpriced withdrawals from t h e environment and t h e d i s p o s a l o f wastes from i n d u s t r i e s and consumers i n t o t h e environment. These a c t i v i t i e s a r e by d e f i n i t i o n unmarketed s i n c e i f t h e y were marketed t h e y would be i n c l u d e d i n t h e W a l r a s - C a s s e l model which i s p r e c i s e l y a model o f t h e i n t e r - a c t i o n among markets.  Ayres and Kneese attempt  t o i n c o r p o r a t e these s o - c a l l e d e x t e r n a l i t i e s ( t h a t i s , t o t h e market) i n t o t h e W a l r a s i a n framework.  external  Before reviewing  t h e i r model i n d e t a i l i t i s worth n o t i n g t h a t a l t h o u g h Ayres and Kneese have expanded t h e i r h o r i z o n s beyond t h e normal l i m i t s o f economic model b u i l d e r s , they stopped s h o r t o f b u i l d i n g what may be termed a complete economic-environment  model.  In t h e i r view t h e economy t a k e s m a t e r i a l s from  environment  ar  the  *d r e t u r n s o t h e r s o f e q u a l mass but o f d i f f e r e n t  chemical composition.  Ayres and Kneese do not c o n s i d e r what  happens t o t h e s e m a t e r i a l s once r e t u r n e d t o the  environment  except when t h e y p o i n t out t h a t the a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e environment  i s l i m i t e d and i n i n s t a n c e s , such as the  atmospheric a c c u m u a l t i o n o f c a r b o n d i o x i d e , t h e s e l i m i t s have been reached.  In a sense, Ayres and Kneese have gone as f a r  as t h e e c o l o g i c a l door but not f u r t h e r . environment  A complete  economic-  model would have t o t a k e account o f the  ecological  p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s as w e l l as the economic ones.  This i s  t h e p o i n t t h a t Daly*' has s t r e s s e d though, as w i l l be l a t e r , h i s attempt l e a v e s much t o be  seen  t o p r o v i d e a framework f o r such a model desired.  Ayres and Kneese t a k e a s t a n d a r d W a l r a s i a n g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m model as t h e i r p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e . The  variables  i n t h e model r e p r e s e n t : i)  r e s o u r c e s and s e r v i c e s ( l a b o u r i n p u t i s an example of the s e r v i c e s included i n t h i s  ii) iii) iv) v)  p r o d u c t s o r commodities resource p r i c e s product o r commodity p r i c e s f i n a l demands  category)  In o r d e r t o account f o r a l l the m a t e r i a l flows r e l a t e d t o economic system Ayres and  Kneese i n t r o d u c e two  which a l l m a t e r i a l s t h a t e n t e r and have t o p a s s . raw  The  the  s e c t o r s through  l e a v e the economic system  'environmental s e c t o r ' s u p p l i e s a l l the  m a t e r i a l s v i a markets o r o t h e r w i s e ,  t o the v a r i o u s  processing  i n d u s t r i e s and r e c e i v e s a l l waste p r o d u c t s a p a r t from those that are r e c y c l e d .  The  ' f i n a l consumption s e c t o r ' has  a l l m a t e r i a l o b j e c t s s u p p l i e d t o f i n a l demand i n the  as  inputs  Walrasian  model, and produces an output o f wastes which are e i t h e r r e c y c l e d i n t o the p r o d u c t i o n sector.  process  or discarded  i n t o the  environmental  These s e c t o r s are c o n c e p t u a l l y s i m i l a r t o the i n d u s t r i e s  i n the W a l r a s i a n  model i n t h a t t h e y have i n p u t s and by anyone.  outputs,  though, o f c o u r s e ,  they are not operated  Their  f u n c t i o n i s simply  t o b a l a n c e the p h y s i c a l l e d g e r s o f the  economic  system. Having d e f i n e d t h e s e s e c t o r s , Ayres and t o p a r t i t i o n the s e t o f r e s o u r c e s model i n t o  subsets  t h a t a t t e n t i o n may the economy.  The  and  o f t a n g i b l e raw  Kneese proceed  s e r v i c e s i n the WaJrasian  m a t e r i a l s and  s e r v i c e s so  be d i r e c t e d t o the f l o w s o f m a t e r i a l s f o l l o w i n g n o t a t i o n , used by Ayres and  through Kneese  but p o o r l y d e f i n e d by them, i s n e c e s s a r y t o e s t a b l i s h the b a l a n c e e q u a t i o n s f o r the W a l r a s i a n  model:  materials  i s t h e weight (k = 1, X  o  6  "th o f t h e commodity output o f t h e k industry  , n)  i s t h e weight o f t h e p h y s i c a l output o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l  s e c t o r 0. X^. i s t h e weight o f t h e p h y s i c a l output o f t h e f i n a l  consumption  sector, f• th C.. i s t h e weight o f t h e p h y s i c a l i n p u t t o t h e j s e c t o r from t h e i * *  1  output o f t h e j * *  industry.  1  industry or  industry or sector per unit o f physical  (C^_. i s e s s e n t i a l l y a L e o n t i e f p r o d u c t i o n  coefficient i n  physical units). C  i s t h e weight o f t h e p h y s i c a l q u a n t i t y t r a n s f e r r e d from til  the i  tTl  industry o r sector t o the j  industry or sector.  i s t h e f i n a l demand f o r t h e output o f t h e j * * U s i n g t h e s e d e f i n i t i o n s Ayres and Kneese p r e s e n t 14,  15, and 16 which p u r p o r t  t o represent  industry. three  equations,  the condition o f  m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e f o r t h e W a l r a s i a n model. r e p e a t e d here and t h e n d i s c u s s e d  1  These e q u a t i o n s a r e  i n detail:  'Flows i n t o and but o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l s e c t o r must be i n b a l a n c e ' :n n E C X + C X ko o fo o k=l * £  o  k  (weight o f a l l raw m a t e r i a l s from t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l s e c t o r to a l l industries  weight o f a l l r e t u r n (waste) f l o w s from i n d u s t r i e s and f i n a l demand.  ' M a t e r i a l f l o w s t o and from the f i n a l s e c t o r must a l s o b a l a n c e  E k=l  V  f  X  f  k=l  (weight o f a l l f i n a l goods)  'by d e f i n i t i o n s Xf  i s t h e sum  =  "fo  -fk  .8.  o  15  waste r e s i d u a l s plus accumulation  weight o f all materials re-cycled  o f f i n a l demands'' n E  *f  i-i  weight o f output o f f i n a l consumption s e c t o r  sum  Y-  16  3  o f a l l f i n a l demands  E q u a t i o n s 14, 15 and 16 a r e s u f f i c i e n t t o a l l o w some c r i t i c a l comments o f t h e Ayres-Kneese f o r m u l a t i o n even b e f o r e t h e i r model i s developed f u l l y t o i n c l u d e e x t e r n a l i t i e s .  To b e g i n  w i t h c o n s i d e r the i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h e s e e q u a t i o n s f o r c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n by p r o d u c e r s and consumers ( t h a t i s , consumer d u r a b l e s ) . Ayres and Kneese a s s e r t t h a t f l o w s i n t o and out o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l s e c t o r and the f i n a l s e c t o r must be i n b a l a n c e .  T h i s statement  i s only true i f c a p i t a l  a c c u m u l a t i o n i s r e g a r d e d as a r e t u r n f l o w t o the F o r example, e q u a t i o n (14) says t h a t t h e sum f l o w s must e q u a l t h e sum  environment.  o f a l l raw m a t e r i a l  o f a l l r e t u r n (waste) f l o w s .  However,  i f a l l wastes are r e c y c l e d through p r o d u c t i o n there  i s no r e t u r n f l o w t o the environment.  p r o c e s s e s then I f raw  materials  c o n t i n u e t o be e x t r a c t e d from the e n v i r o n m e n t a l s e c t o r and  yet  a l l wastes are r e c y c l e d , e i t h e r c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n i s o c c u r i n g o r the goods, so produced, a r e g o i n g t o the f i n a l s e c t o r • i n i t s t u r n , can e i t h e r d i s p o s e the waste back i n t o p r o d u c t i o n consumer d u r a b l e s .  The  final  o f t h e s e goods as waste, c h a n n e l p r o c e s s e s o r accumulate  I t follows t h a t to t r e a t accumulation  i n e i t h e r the p r o d u c t i o n  s e c t o r o r the f i n a l goods s e c t o r  as a r e t u r n flow t o the environment i s not a c o n v e n i e n c e , as s t a t e d by Ayres and formulation  K n e e s e ^ , but a n e c e s s a r y p a r t o f 1  o f the m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e p r i n c i p l e .  I t i s t r u e , as A y r e s and  Kneese p o i n t o u t , t h a t  a c t u a l l y become p a r t o f our environment"' . 1-1  may  their  "structures  Nevertheless,  be argued t h a t t o t r e a t c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n i n t h i s  i s not p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l and o f t h e i r model.  way  spirit  I t i s g e n e r a l l y t r u e t h a t the purpose o f economic  models i s t o d e s c r i b e world.  i s even c o n t r a r y t o the  it  a subset o f the a c t i v i t i e s o f the  entire  To a c c o m p l i s h t h i s i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o d i s t i n g u i s h  between economic  and non-economic a c t i v i t y .  The  process of  c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n i s n o r m a l l y i n c l u d e d i n the s e t o f economic a c t i v i t i e s and,  as such, i s d e f i n e d as b e i n g  something d i f f e r e n t  sector  from waste d i s p o s a l .  F o r some u n s p e c i f i e d r e a s o n Ayres and Kneese  do riot choose t o make t h i s d i s t i n c t i o n w i t h the r e s u l t  that  t h e i r model o f ah economy does not e x p l i c i t l y r e c o g n i s e what has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been thought o f as an economic a c t i v i t y . (14) and  (15) can e a s i l y be m o d i f i e d so t h a t  Equations  capital  a c c u m u l a t i o n and waste d i s p o s a l a r e e n t e r e d s e p a r a t e l y on the r i g h t hand s i d e o f both e q u a t i o n s .  The m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e  p r i n c i p l e would s t i l l h o l d though i t would be  immediately  obvious t h a t m a t e r i a l f l o w s t o andfrom the environment not n e c e s s a r i l y b a l a n c e f o r any time p e r i o d , w i t h accumulation The  a c c o u n t  i  n g  f  o  r  t  n  e  need  capital  difference.  d i s c u s s i o n has o m i t t e d y e t a t h i r d form o f a c c u m u l a t i o n  t h a t s h o u l d be accounted f o r and t h a t i s a c c u m u l a t i o n i n t h e form o f p o p u l a t i o n growth.  A change i n the mass o f p e o p l e  can be accomplished by a change i n e i t h e r t h e number o r s i z e people o r a combination o f t h e two.  of  I t would be v e r y  m i s l e a d i n g i n d e e d t o i n c l u d e t h i s form o f a c c u m u l a t i o n as a r e t u r n f l o w t o the environment  because  i t would imply t h a t people a r e t o  be e x c l u d e d from the economic model.  Such an i m p l i c a t i o n matches"  p o o r l y w i t h the phenomena o f consumption  and p r o d u c t i o n which  v e r y d e f i n i t e l y are i n c l u d e d i n the Ayres-Kneese  model.  The treatment o f c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n i s not the o n l y p o i n t o f c r i t i c i s m t o be made a g a i n s t e q u a t i o n s (14) (3.5) and  (16).  As  mentioned e a r l i e r , Ayres and Kneese d i s t i n g u i s h between t a n g i b l e raw m a t e r i a l s and raw m a t e r i a l s ' s e r v i c e s i n o r d e r t o i s o l a t e t h e m a t e r i a l s f l o w i n t h e economy. m a t e r i a l s , i n equation  (14) r e p r e s e n t  T a n g i b l e raw  the flow o f m a t e r i a l s  from t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l s e c t o r t o a l l i n d u s t r i e s .  The flow  o f raw m a t e r i a l s s e r v i c e s t o i n d u s t r i e s i s e x c l u d e d from t h e m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e e q u a t i o n s even though i t e n t e r s t h e model elsewhere. be and  allowed  Consistency  alone, requires thatraw m a t e r i a l s e r v i c e s  t o e n t e r t h e s e t o f f i n a l demands.  However, Ayres  Kneese do n o t a l l o w t h i s even though raw m a t e r i a l s e r v i c e s  going  t o f i n a l , demand would i n c l u d e t h e a e s t h e t i c v a l u e o f  the environment.  And y e t i f t h i s i s not i n c l u d e d i n t h e model  Ayres and Kneese cannot p r o p e r l y c l a i m t h a t t h e e x t e r n a l i t i e s " a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e d i s p o s a l o f r e s i d u a l s r e s u l t i n g from t h e 12 consumption and p r o d u c t i o n modified The  Walrasian  process"  a r e accounted f o r i n t h e  model.  treatment o f s e r v i c e s i n t h e model i s c u r i o u s i n y e t  another r e s p e c t s i n c e Ayres and Kneese make no p r o v i s i o n f o r t h e f i n a l demand f o r s e r v i c e s o f any k i n d .  The assumption t h a t  o n l y p r o d u c t s and commodities a r e produced i s r e q u i r e d t o v a l i d a t e t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f equation  (16).  I t would  be more s a t i s f a c t o r y t o a l l o w s e r v i c e s t o be s u p p l i e d t o consumers and  p a r t i t i o n t h e s e t o f f i n a l demands i n t o those t h a t a r e  p r o d u c t s and  commodities and  those t h a t are s e r v i c e s .  This  s e t c o u l d then be used i n the m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e e q u a t i o n  first  (15)  which r e l a t e s t o f i n a l goods s e c t o r . One  f u r t h e r comment i s i n o r d e r b e f o r e  examining! i n more  d e t a i l s the i n c l u s i o n o f e x t e r n a l i t i e s i n the Ayres-Kneese model. As i s t r u e o f a l l s t a n d a r d  Walrasian  the Ayres-Kneese model i s s t a t i c .  g e n e r a l e q u i l i b r i u m models,  T h i s means t h a t i t i s o n l y  a p p l i c a b l e t o problems o f p r o d u c t i o n  and  exchange i n a  given  time p e r i o d w i t h no c o n s i d e r a t i o n b e i n g made f o r the e f f e c t s o f a c t i o n i n one  p e r i o d on  the subsequent p e r i o d s .  F o r some  purposes t h i s l i m i t a t i o n i s not p a r t i c u l a r l y important  but  i f the model i s t o be u s e f u l i n the d i s c u s s i o n o f problems and p o l i c i e s r e l a t i n g t o the e n v i r o n m e n t a l a f f e c t s o f and be  production  consumption then c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the w o r l d must recognised. I n s o f a r as the c a p a c i t y o f the environment t o absorb  wastes i s l i m i t e d , the problem o f what q u a n t i t y o f wastes  should  be  The  introduced  i n t o the environment i s a dynamic problem.  a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f the environment f o r wastes i s p o t e n t i a l l y exhaustible to cleanse  even though the environment p o s s e s s e s the itself.  Tomorrow's c a p a c i t y t o a s s i m i l a t e wastes  depends, i n p a r t , on the wastes d i s p o s e d important r e l a t i o n  ability  i s not  o f today.  This  i d e n t i f i e d i n the s t a t i c  formulation  o f Ayres and Kneese, who, a f t e r d e f i n i n g t h e a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e environment the statement  as a common p r o p e r t y good, make  that "the s u p p l i e s are simply constants f i x e d  by n a t u r e o r o t h e r w i s e determined  by a c c i d e n t o r non-economic  13 factors."  As w i l l be seen i n what f o l l o w s , t h e f a i l u r e t o  r e c o g n i s e t h e i n t e r - t e m p o r a l a s p e c t s o f waste d i s p o s a l l e a d s Ayres and Kneese i n t o some a n a l y t i c a l  errors.  Ayres and Kneese p o i n t t o t h r e e c l a s s e s o f m a t e r i a l f l o w s t h a t have a s s o c i a t e d economic t r a n s a c t i o n s : " 1 ) p r i v a t e use f o r p r o d u c t i o n i n p u t s o f 'common p r o p e r t y ' r e s o u r c e s , n o t a b l y a i r , streams, l a k e s and t h e ocean; a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y o f t h e environment  2) p r i v a t e use o f t h e  t o 'dispose o f  o r d i l u t e wastes and r e s i d u a l s ; 3) i n a d v e r t e n t o r unwanted m a t e r i a l i n p u t s t o produce pollutants."' " 1  4  p r o c e s s e s - d i l u e n t s and  F o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e a s o n s , these f l o w s a r e  t r a n s f e r r e d between s e c t o r s a t z e r o p r i c e , and c o n s e q u e n t l y they a r e o m i t t e d from t h e s t a n d a r d W a l r a s i a n model.  The  Ayres-Kneese model, however, can accommodate t h e s e u n p r i c e d f l o w s by i n t r o d u c i n g two s u b s e t s o f t h e s e t o f r e s o u r c e s .  The f i r s t  i n c l u d e s items one and two which a r e common p r o p e r t y r e s o u r c e s . The second s u b s e t i s t h a t o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l d i s s e r v i c e s  imposed  on consumers o f m a t e r i a l r e s o u r c e s who a r e f o r c e d t o a c c e p t unwanted i n p u t s .  A l t h o u g h Ayres and Kneese i n d i c a t e how t h e s e  subsets a f f e c t t h e i r i n i t i a l formulation  o f the model t h e y attempt  a s h o r t cut and omit the subset o f common p r o p e r t y  resources.  It  w i l l be argued here t h a t t h i s o m i s s i o n i s i l l e g i t i m a t e . A y r e s and  Kneese c o r r e c t l y p o i n t out t h a t i f the a s s i m i l a t i v e  c a p a c i t y o f the environment was  p a i d f o r the p r i c e s o f goods would  r i s e i n d i r e c t r e l a t i o n w i t h the amount o f t h i s c a p a c i t y used i n t h e i r production.  Thus, " h i g h r e s i d u a l - p r o d u c i n g  such as paper-making, are s u b s t a n t i a l l y u n d e r p r i c e d  processes, vis-a vis  15 goods which i n v o l v e more  economical uses o f b a s i c  g i v e n t h a t a s s i m i l a t i o n o f wastes i s not p a i d f o r .  resources," Ayres and  t h e n argue t h a t t h i s "causes no m i s a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s o r u n t i l , the l a r g e r e s o u r c e  inventory  Only t h e n i s some  5  accounts. any  context,  two  p r i c e i f the d i s c o u n t i f an a c t i o n now  about the o p t i m a l  one,  a p o s i t i v e f u t u r e p r i c e must have a p o s i t i v e  d e c i s i o n t o a c t now  rate i s f i n i t e .  use  that these resources  present  of a scarce resource,  that resource  I t f o l l o w s t h a t u n l e s s the r e s o u r c e  resourse  the  i n that i t i s a decision  the a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y are i n f i n i t e and  be exhausted, o p t i m a l  I n the  tends t o b r i n g a s c a r c i t y l a t e r then  i s an economic one  assimilative capacity. and  T h i s a n a l y s i s i s wrong on  In a market economy, not n e c e s s a r i l y a p e r f e c t  good which has  present  unless,  and/or the a s s i m i l a t i v e  c a p a c i t y o f the environment are used up".''' method o f r a t i o n i n g r e q u i r e d .  Kneese  being inventory  hence c o u l d never  a l l o c a t i o n t h r o u g h time  be p r i c e d i n e v e r y time p e r i o d .  requires  The hand Ayres  second e r r o r i s one o f c o n t r a d i c t i o n .  On t h e one  and Kneese a r e s a y i n g t h a t a z e r o p r i c e f o r some  r e s o u r c e s i s o p t i m a l u n t i l t h e r e s o u r c e s a r e used up and on the o t h e r t h e y r e c o g n i s e t h a t "goods produced by h i g h r e s i d u a l p r o d u c i n g processes.... a r e s u b s t a n t i a l l y u n d e r p r i c e d v i s - a - v i s goods  17 which i n v o l v e  more economical  one o f t h e s e statements  uses o f b a s i c r e s o u r c e s . "  can be c o r r e c t and i t i s  Only  taken t h a t  the v a l i d i t y o f t h e second one has been e s t a b l i s h e d . On t h e b a s i s o f t h e i r f a u l t y a n a l y s i s Ayres  and Kneese  omit t h e common p r o p e r t y v a r i a b l e s from t h e i r model and r e t a i n o n l y t h e v a r i a b l e s which r e p r e s e n t t h e p h y s i c a l q u a n t i t i e s o f the unwanted i n p u t s and the a s s o c i a t e d p r i c e s . comment b r i e f l y on t h e p r i c e s t o be charged  They then  the producer o f  the r e s i d u a l s and t h e compensation t o be p a i d t o t h e r e c i p i e n t s o f t h e unwanted  inputs  Ayres and Kneese suggest  e x i s t s a s e t o f p r i c e s "determined  that there  by t h e a p p r o p r i a t e P a r e t o  18 preference c r i t e r i a "  t h a t w i l l , i n e f f e c t , r a t i o n t h e output  o f r e s i d u a l s and p r o v i d e t h e revenue f o r compensation. important  t o r e c o g n i s e t h a t t h e r e a r e two a n a l y t i c a l l y  p r o p o s i t i o n s here t h a t Ayres and Kneese i n c o r r e c t l y t o t r e a t as one. The e x i s t e n c e  It i s distinct  attempt  o f a zero p r i c e f o r using  the same r e s o u r c e o f t h e environment's a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y i s inefficient.  T h i s means t h a t t h e i m p o s i t i o n o f a p a r t i c u l a r  p o s i t i v e p r i c e would l e a d t o a s i t u a t i o n where everyone's r e a l economic w e l f a r e  c o u l d be r a i s e d .  Whether or not  economic w e l f a r e  w i l l be r a i s e d depends upon how  everyone's the g a i n s  from  more e f f i c i e n c y are d i s t r i b u t e d amongst the members o f s o c i e t y . Furthermore, i t i s not n e c e s s a r y t h a t compensation be p a i d f o r t h e r e t o be an  increase  i n s o c i e t y ' s economic w e l f a r e  waste d i s p o s a l p r i c e s are imposed. d i s t r i b u t i o n o f economic w e l f a r e However, one should  The  may  i m p l i e d change i n the  w e l l be  would t h i n k t h a t i f i t was  when  socially desirable.  deemed t h a t  compensation  be p a i d then i t would be p a i d by the former r e c i p i e n t s o f  the unwanted i n p u t s t o the p e o p l e who  now  have t o pay  a price for  waste d i s p o s a l , assuming o f c o u r s e , t h a t t h e s e groups can separated. for  In g e n e r a l ,  the  i m p o s i t i o n o f such a p r i c e i s an  waste p r o d u c e r s t o produce l e s s waste and  they produce i n a harmless manner. t e n d t o lower the w e l f a r e r a i s e the w e l f a r e  be  no  o f what  T h i s change i n b e h a v i o u r  o f the people who  o f those who  to dispose  pay  the p r i c e  incentive  will  and  l o n g e r r e c e i v e unwanted wastes.  Thus compensation t h a t would make a l l p a r t i e s b e t t e r o f f would go from the former waste r e c i p i e n t s t o the former waste p r o d u c e r s . However, d e s p i t e Ayres and preference  Kneeses mention o f the  c r i t e r i a " t h e y say q u i t e c l e a r l y t h a t  would be p a i d t o the the argument g i v e n  inadvertent  recipients.  "appropriate compensation  This  contradicts  here which suggests t h a t a P a r e t o improvement  r e q u i r e s compensation i n t h e o p p o s i t e d i r e c t i o n . The d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e Ayres-Kneese model i s now  complete.  Emphasis has been g i v e n t o t h e assumptions on which the model i s b u i l t and t o t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n Ayres and Kneese g i v e t o v a r i o u s a s p e c t s o f t h e i r model.  The model i s s u c c e s s f u l i n  h i g h l i g h t i n g some o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s between an economy and t h e environment b u t , as Ayres and Kneese a r e ready t o admit, the model i s s e v e r e l y l i m i t e d  in i t s practical application.  i s p r i m a r i l y due t o t h e enormous q u a n t i t y o f d a t a t h a t would required to f i t  such a  model.  This be  However, W a l r a s i a n g e n e r a l  e q u i l i b r i u m models a r e always open t o t h i s p a r t i c u l a r  criticism.  Nevertheless, they are u s e f u l f o r a n a l y t i c a l purposes, i n c l u d i n g t h e assessment o f p a r t i a l e q u i l i b r i u m models.  Following the  19 work o f L e o n t i e f  on i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s , t h e W a l r a s i a n  framework has been s i m p l i f i e d t o a l l o w e m p i r i c a l  estimation  o f a model which r e c o g n i s e s some o f t h e important i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e s i n an economy.  I t i s from t h e s t a n d p o i n t o f i n p u t - o u t p u t  analysis  t h a t I s a r d and Daly have, i n d e p e n d e n t l y , a d d r e s s e d t h e problem o f economic-environment  i n t e r a c t i o n and i t i s time t o examine  the contributionsVof t h e s e a u t h o r s .  C.  THE DALY MODEL D a l y ' s model may be c o n t r a s t e d on two main a c c o u n t s .  w i t h t h a t o f Ayres and Kneese  F i r s t o f a l l Daly uses t h e L e o n t i e f  output framework r a t h e r than t h e W a l r a s i a n g e n e r a l model.  input-  equilibrium  More s i g n i f i c a n t l y , Daly goes f u r t h e r than just making  the a d d i t i o n o f U n p r i c e d  i n p u t s from t h e environment t o t h e  economy and u n p r i c e d  o u t p u t s from t h e economy  t o t h e environment.  He r e c o g n i s e s  t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s t h a t go on  o u t s i d e t h e p a r t o f t h e world t h a t i s termed economic.  Daly's  p l a n i s t o b r i n g p u r e l y economic i n t e r r e l a t i o n s , , p u r e l y e n v i r o n m e n t a l i n t e r r e l a t i o n s j and r e l a t i o n s between t h e economy and t h e environment i n t o one comprehensive model. The  world i s d i v i d e d i n t o human and non-human s e c t o r s .  remains a "world o f 'Commodities  It  i n t h a t a l l a c t i v i t i e s a r e seen  as t h e t r a n s f e r o f commodities w i t h i n and between t h e human and non-human s e c t o r s .  I n t e r a c t i o n s t h a t go on e n t i r e l y i n the  human s e c t o r a r e those t h a t a r e c o n v e n t i o n a l l y d e s c r i b e d economic.  as  Only economic commodities a r e produced and exchanged  w i t h i n t h e human s e c t o r . an e c o l o g i c a l s e c t o r .  In c o n t r a s t , t h e non-human s e c t o r i s  R e l a t i o n s between non-human e n t i t i e s a r e  viewed as a t r a n s f e r o f e c o l o g i c a l commodities which Daly r a t h e r v a g u e l y d e f i n e s as f r e e goods ( z e r o p r i c e s ) and bads p r i c e s which a r e n o t g e n e r a l l y o b s e r v e d ) .  (negative  Some examples o f these  e c o l o g i c a l commodities appear i n T a b l e 1.  The e c o l o g i c a l  sector» t h e n , i s t h e s u b j e c t m a t t e r o f t h e s c i e n c e o f e c o l o g y . So f a r o n l y  i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h i n t h e human and non-human  s e c t o r s have been mentioned. must a l s o be i n c l u d e d  I n t e r a c t i o n s between t h e s e  i n a complete model.  sectors  When commodities  f l o w from t h e human o r economic s e c t o r t o t h e non-human o r e c o l o g i c a l s e c t o r , they a r e c a l l e d e x t e r n a l i t i e s . direction are called  ' f r e e ' goods.  Flows i n t h e o p p o s i t e  These f l o w s ,  i n either direction,  are t h e l i n k s between t h e economic and e c o l o g i c a l s e c t o r s .  To  make the p o i n t more c l e a r l y , c o n s i d e r t h e d i s p o s a l o f wastes from t h e economic s e c t o r .  Such wastes a r e t r a n s f e r r e d t o t h e  e c o l o g i c a l s e c t o r where t h e y i n t e r a c t w i t h o t h e r e c o l o g i c a l commodities and a f f e c t t h e supply s e c t o r t o t h e economic s e c t o r . are broken down i n water»and  o f f r e e goods from t h e e c o l o g i c a l  T h i s i s what happens when wastes  oxygen i s used up i n t h e p r o c e s s .  A l a c k o f oxygen may reduce t h e q u a n t i t y o f f i s h t h a t c a n s u r v i v e i n t h e water body and so t h e f l o w o f ' f r e e ' f i s h t o t h e economic sector i s reduced. The  f a c t t h a t Daly's model e x p l i c i t l y  accounts f o r r e l a t i o n s  such as these g i v e s i t a c l e a r advantage o v e r t h e Ayres-Kneese model However, D a l y ' s f o r m u l a t i o n  o f an a c t u a l i n p u t - o u t p u t  model which  i n c l u d e s human and non-human s e c t o r s can o n l y be c o n s i d e r e d suggestive  o f a l e g i t i m a t e model.  H i s input-output  as f a i n t l y  t a b l e i s reproduced  on page 33. T a b l e 1 i s d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r q u a d r a n t s . a very  simple three  Quadrant (2) i s  s e c t o r , c l o s e d economic i n p u t - o u t p u t  table.  The  a g r i c u l t u r e s e c t o r t r a n s f o r m s matter and energy v i a l i f e  The  i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r t r a n s f o r m s m a t t e r and energy v i a n o n - l i f e  processes. is  The household s e c t o r s u p p l i e s p r i m a r y s e r v i c e s and  t h e s o u r c e o f f i n a l demand;  the i n p u t - o u t p u t The  processes.  formulation  Quadrant (4) i s an e x t e n s i o n o f  t o e c o l o g i c a l o r non-human  processes.  d i s t i n c t i o n between l i v i n g and n o n - l i v i n g t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s  of  m a t t e r and energy i s made. L i f e p r o c e s s e s i n c l u d e amimal, p l a n t and b a c t e r i a , and nonlife  p r o c e s s e s i n c l u d e p h y s i c a l and c h e m i c a l r e a c t i o n s i n t h e  atmosphere, hydrosphere and l i t h o s p h e r e .  (The f a c t t h a t a l l  l i f e p r o c e s s e s may be viewed as p h y s i c a l and c h e m i c a l r e a c t i o n s does not d e t r a c t from t h e u s e f u l n e s s  of this c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  system.)  A l s o i n c l u d e d i n t h e non-human s e c t o r i s a source o f p r i m a r y s e r v i c e s , t h e sun. system.  This i s the d r i v i n g force o f the e n t i r e  Low e n t r o p y matter-energy emanates from t h i s s o u r c e and  a l l i n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h i n t h e system a r e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s r o p y to- s t a t e s o f h i g h e r energy e n t e r s  entropy.  o f low e n t -  T h i s h i g h entropy matter -  a f i n a l "thermodynamic s i n k . . . f o r e v e r degraded as 22  devil's  dust"  Quadrants (1) and (3) p r o v i d e and  t h e l i n k s between t h e economic  e c o l o g i c a l quadrants (2) and (<+).  I n quadrant (1) t h e e c o l o g i c a l  TABLE 1 Daly's Input-Output Table  INPUT TO  OUTPUT FROM  Agriculture  (1)  Households (Final AniBacIndustry Consumption) mal Plant teria (2) (3) (6) (4) (5)  Sink Hydro- Litho- (Final ConAtmosphere sphere sphere sumption (10) (8) (8) TOTAL (9)  Quadrant (2) 1.  Agriculture  •••  2.  Industry  q  3.  Households (primary services)  21  Quadrant (1)  12  q  (q ) 22  Q  23  32  q  •••  «••  •  •••  • ••  •*•  ••a  "17  •••  5.  • •*  Plant  6. Bacteria 7.  Atmosphere  •••  37  ** •  q  8.  •«*  *••  •••  •••  q  • • •  000  • ••  •••  •* •  q  ••*  *••  q  •• • "71  q  q  Hydrosphere  ...  •••  ••*  9. Lithosphere  ...  ••»  10. Sun (primary services)  ...  •  1  Q  °2 •••  Q  3  Quadrant (4)  •  72  •• •  27  q  Quadrant (3) 4. Animal  •••  73  ••«  74  q  75  76  q  q  • •«  • ••  • »•  ...  A7 37  •«•  •••  •••  000  *•*  • 00. •  «*•)  67  (q ) ?7  78  79  7,10  q  q  q  87  • ••  • ••  •••  97  •• *  q  q  10,7  q  • •*  Source: H. E. Daly, "On Economics as a Life Science". The Journal of Political Economy. 76, No. 3 (May-June 1968)  commodities produced by the economy are tabulated according to their source and destination.  These commodities are included  in what are normally defined as externalities.  Quadrant (3)  shows the 'free' goods from the environment which enter the economic sectors. Daly's table i s useful in bringing to light the interdependencies between the human world of production and exchange, and i t s natural counterpart, the biological world.  If this were i t s  only purpose one could overlook some rather serious difficulties relating to measurement. (Daly's quadrant (2)), units.  In the standard input-output model  a l l the flows are measured in dollar  To some extent this avoids the problem of multi-output  industries since the flows can be interpreted as flows of real resources to which a market value i s attributed.  More usually  i t is assumed that each industry produces only one product which is the dollar aggregate of a l l i t s outputs.  However, no such  simplification can be made when the flows are in ecological commodities and not marketed industry outputs.  How can the  multifarious outputs of the atmosphere, for example, be aggregated . so that i t makes sense to talk of 'the' output of the atmosphere which i s used as an input by bacteria? Daly asserts that the assumption of a fixed proportions holds just as well for environmental activities as i t does for economic activities, in which case any single atmospheric output w i l l serve as an index of  a l l atmospheric o u t p u t s .  Although t h i s a s s e r t i o n of Daly's  s h o u l d be t e s t e d a g a i n s t the f a c t s a l i t t l e  skepticism i s j u s t i f i e d  s i m p l y because t h e r e c e n t i n t e r e s t i n the p r o d u c t i o n and o f wastes may  disposal  be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e very obvious and w e l l  documented q u a l i t a t i v e and q u a n t i t a t i v e changes t h a t are o c c u r i n g  24 i n the n a t u r a l  environment  There i s y e t another a g g r e g a t i o n problem which even the assumption o f f i x e d p r o p o r t i o n s i n the non-economic s e c t o r s help solve. no market  Owing t o the l a c k o f a market  i n ecological  p r i c e s can be d i r e c t l y a t t r i b u t e d t o them.  t h e s e p r i c e s t h e r e i s no sense i n which the economic  cannot  commodities,  Lacking output  o f an i n d u s t r y can be added t o the a s s o c i a t e d e c o l o g i c a l output o f the same i n d u s t r y s i n c e no numeraire e x i s t s f o r the purpose. r o l l e d s t e e l cannot be aggregated w i t h s u l p h u r d i o x i d e it  can be brought i n t o r e l a t i o n w i t h i t .  Thus,  though  However, i n Daly's  attempt t o i n t e r p r e t h i s t a b l e not merely as a d e s c r i p t i o n o f e v e n t s , b u t as an a n a l y t i c a l model he i s g u i l t y o f summing incommensurables. In o r d e r t o c a l c u l a t e t e c h n i c a l c o e f f i c i e n t s Daly sums a c r o s s the rows, t h e r e b y a d d i n g economic commodities. the normal way  The  and  ecological  ' t o t a l s ' , the Q's i n T a b l e 1, are used i n  t o c a l c u l a t e the t e c h n i c a l c o e f f i c i e n t s o f  p r o d u c t i o n f o r the human and non-human s e c t o r s . c o e f f i c i e n t s are as meaningless  However, the  as the t o t a l s despite Daly's unsubstantiated claim that "there appear to be no t h e o r e t i c a l problems i n extending the input23 output model i n t h i s way."  As w i l l be seen i n the discussion  of Isard's work, input-output models can be adapted to incorporate economic and e c o l o g i c a l processes.  I t requires the  s a c r i f i c e of the so-called industry - industry c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i n favour of a commodity-industry c l a s s i f i c a t i o n .  However, since  input-output models seem to be following t h i s course f o r other reasons as w e l l , the introduction of e c o l o g i c a l commodities imposes no a d d i t i o n a l strains on the model once multi-commodity industries are introduced e x p l i c i t l y . D.  THE ISARD MODEL  25  Walter Isard and h i s colleagues have provided, to date, the most comprehensive economic-ecological model and have gone some way  towards deriving the enormous quantity of data such a complex  model requires.  The basic framework i s very s i m i l a r to that  proposed by Daly, the e s s e n t i a l difference between the two being that Isard uses the c o e f f i c i e n t s of production d i r e c t l y whereas Daly turned i n i t i a l l y to the accounting data from which he intended to derive the c o e f f i c i e n t s .  However, as explained above,  Daly's table could not legitimately be used f o r the necessary calculations.  I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g , therefore, to examine the way  in which Isard arrives at the economic and ecologic coefficients of production and to see how he circumvents the problems that confront Daly's method. To place the discussion in context, consider Table 2, 26 which i s an outline of a table of coefficients taken from Isard. Quadrant(2)is said to be "a traditional coefficient table, with columns representing sectors (industries and activities) and rows representing commodities associated with these sectors 27 as outputs and resources."  Traditional coefficient tables  are derived from input-output accounts which are constructed using an industry by industry classification.  The implication  of this is that each industry produces only one output and, moreover, each output i s produced by only one industry.  However,  i t is not clear whether or not Isard intends quadrant(2)to be a square matrix.  Some of the examples of economic activities and  economic commodities which he gives in the table support the notion that he i s thinking in terms of a square matrix.  R>r  example, wheat seems to be the only economic commodity output of the agriculture activity and cloth i s the only output of the textile industry.  However, this pattern i s not maintained in quadrant (2)  since the last listed economic activity i s sport fishing which obviously does not correspond to the last listed economic commodity, crude o i l .  The main point, however, is that Isard's model i s  TABLE 2.  ISARD'S INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE  ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES  ECOLOGIC PROCESSES  a o  C C • H r 4H  •H +J O  'r\  0)  H O  rH  •P  <D CU  Wheat Cloth  to  ECONOMIC SYSTEM:  M M  INTERSECTOR COEFFICIENTS  O CJ M  "d o  •rH  PH  c  Pi  s  •H  rC CO  0)  I  IM  +•  +J rH  •iH  O , O.  rH  K  A  r c  ECOLOGIC PROCESSES: THEIR INPUT AND OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS RE: ECONOMIC COMMODITIES  o  § o w  Crude O i l Water Intake Alkalinity  0)  ECONOMIC SECTORS:  o ii  c>  C)  THEIR INPUT AND OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS RE: ECOLOGIC COMMODITIES  o  M CD O  ECOLOGIC SYSTEM: INTERPROCESS COEFFICIENTS  •DfitrJUS  Plankton Herring Cod, Source:  W. Isard, 'Some Notes on the Linkage of the Ecologic and Economic Systems', (Unpublished paper delivered t o the Regional Science and Landscape Analysis Project, Department of Landscape Architecture, Harvard University and the Regional Science Research Insitute,  unaffected, one  i n s u b s t a n c e , i f i n d u s t r i e s a r e assumed t o have  o r many economic o u t p u t s .  Indeed quadrant( 2 ) i s  defined  i n terms o f commodities and i n d u s t r i e s s o t h e o p t i o n e x i s t s f o r i n t r o d u c i n g s e v e r a l o u t p u t s f o r each i n d u s t r y .  Some o f  the advantages o f assuming t h a t i n d u s t r i e s produce many o u t -  28 p u t s have been p o i n t e d  out by s e v e r a l w r i t e r s .  I f o n l y one  output p e r i n d u s t r y i s assumed t h e n t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s do n o t represent cesses.  commodity i n p u t s t o o r o u t p u t s from p r o d u c t i o n  pro-  They a r e i n t e r - i n d u s t r y c o e f f i c i e n t s and no. more.  Now  the v e r y n a t u r e o f t h e problem f o r which I s a r d has b u i l t h i s model r e q u i r e s a t l e a s t two o u t p u t s from some i n d u s t r i e s : economic commodity and an a s s o c i a t e d waste p r o d u c t .  an  Isard, i n  f a c t , goes much beyond one waste p r o d u c t i n t h a t he attempts t o d e f i n e as many as p o s s i b l e .  Thus each i n d u s t r y i s assumed t o  produce s e v e r a l t y p e s o f wastes o r e c o l o g i c commodities. Consistency  alone,  t h e r e f o r e , r e q u i r e s t h a t each i n d u s t r y be  assumed t o produce s e v e r a l economic commodities, though t h i s i s f a r from b e i n g  t h e o n l y argument i n f a v o u r o f what has shown t o  29 be  a s u p e r i o r framework f o r i n p u t - o u t p u t These matters w i l l be r e t u r n e d  analysis.  t o l a t e r when t h e author's  own model i s p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter I I I .  F o r t h e moment i t s u f f i c e s  t o r e s t a t e some o f t h e p o i n t s about a g g r e g a t i o n made w i t h t o D a l y ' s model.  In the standard  i n d u s t r y by i n d u s t r y  respect  classification  it  i s p o s s i b l e t o aggregate  a l l the outputs o f an i n d u s t r y i n  terms o f t h e i r money v a l u e .  Market p r i c e s s e r v e as a common  denominator f o r a l l economic commodities. be s a i d o f e c o l o g i c commodities.  The same  cannot  There i s no e q u i v a l e n t way  of  a g g r e g a t i n g d i f f e r e n t types o f gaseous waste p r o d u c t s , o r such d i v e r s e e n t i t i e s such as l e a d a e r o s a l and waste The  o n l y way  paper.  i n which t h i s c o u l d be done would be d i r e c t l y i n terms 30  of s o c i a l welfare  .  I n s o f a r as market p r i c e s s e r v e as  w e l f a r e i n d i c a t o r s t h i s i s what l e g i t i m i z e s the o f commodities a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r market v a l u e s .  aggregation But  no  e x p l i c i t market v a l u e s e x i s t f o r waste p r o d u c t s , though i t may  be p o s s i b l e t o impute market v a l u e s by e s t i m a t i n g the 31  v a r i o u s a s s o c i a t e d damage c o s t s it  i s not p o s s i b l e t o aggregate  .  Nevertheless, i n general,  e c o l o g i c commodities i n a manner  t h a t corresponds t o the a g g r e g a t i o n i n v o l v e d i n t r a d i t i o n a l i n p u t - o u t p u t models. However,as i s argued below, t h i s does not prevent the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f commodity by i n d u s t r y i n p u t - o u t p u t model o f the e c o l o g i c system  a R e f e r r i n g once a g a i n t o T a b l e 2, quadrant e c o l o g i c system.  The  (4)  r e p r e s e n t s the  e c o l o g i c commodities o f the rows e n t e r  the e c o l o g i c p r o c e s s e s o f the columns as i n p u t s and/or o u t p u t s . A l t h o u g h I s a r d does not c o n s i d e r the p o i n t e x p l i c i t l y t h e r e i s no reason why  quadrant  (4) has t o be a square  However, i n T a b l e 2, I s a r d ' s  matrix  designation  o f the c o e f f i c i e n t s as  i m p l i e s a one industries.  t o one  'interprocess  coefficients'  r e l a t i o n s h i p between commodity o u t p u t s  In the g e n e r a l  and  case t h e r e w i l l be more e c o l o g i c  commodities than p r o c e s s e s .  An example o f such a  matrix i s presented i n Isard's  paper t o d e s c r i b e  the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between p l a n k t o n and  related  rectangular and  analyse  production  activities. I t i s c l e a r t h a t the e c o l o g i c p r o c e s s e s o f T a b l e 2 correspond t o the economic n o t i o n o f an i n d u s t r y ( o r a c t i v i t y , as prefers to c a l l i t ) .  However, the l a c k o f an e c o l o g i c c o u n t e r -  p a r t t o an i n d u s t r y ' s aggregate output (except p r o c e s s has  o n l y one  proportions)  Isard  when an  ecologic  o u t p u t o r i t s o u t p u t s are produced i n f i x e d  means t h a t the e c o l o g i c system must be viewed i n a  commodity by p r o c e s s c o n t e x t .  The  industry  by i n d u s t r y format  which makes sense f o r economic a c t i v i t i e s cannot be used t o d e s c r i b e the e c o l o g i c system. So f a r the d i s c u s s i o n has r e q u i r e m e n t s o f an i n p u t - o u t p u t the e c o l o g i c system.  the p r o d u c t i o n  can be  derived.  t a b l e that meaningfully  Granted t h a t such a t a b l e must  e c o l o g i c commodities and how  been d i r e c t e d e n t i r e l y t o  the  describes  include  a c t i v i t i e s i t s t i l l remains t o be  seen  c o e f f i c i e n t s o f the e c o l o g i c system (quadrant  The  4)  procedure used t o c a l c u l a t e the c o e f f i c i e n t s  that describe  the economic system i s . t o d i v i d e the .commodities used  as i n p u t s  outputs i n an i n d u s t r y by  and  the t o t a l output  of  that industry.  T h i s g i v e s t h e i n p u t and output o f each .commodity  p e r u n i t o f output o f t h e i n d u s t r y .  I t has a l r e a d y been argued  t h a t , i n t h e e c o l o g i c system, t h e r e i s no way o f a g g r e g a t i n g v a r i o u s e c o l o g i c commodities t h a t a l l o w s  one t o t a l k o f t h e  t o t a l e c o l o g i c output o f an e c o l o g i c p r o c e s s ,  and y e t some  such measure o f output i s r e q u i r e d i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s o f t h e input-output  coefficients.  The assumption t h a t each p r o c e s s  produces i t s d i f f e r e n t commodity o u t p u t s i n f i x e d  proportions,  an assumption which i s used i n some p u r e l y economic commodity by  i n d u s t r y models, i s n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f a s u r r o -  gate measure o f p r o c e s s o u t p u t .  As R o s e n b l u t h suggests i n h i s  32 paper  , " t h e l e v e l o f o p e r a t i o n o f an i n d u s t r y ( o r p r o c e s s )  may be measured by v a l u e o f output a t base p e r i o d p r i c e s , by the q u a n t i t y o f some major commodity produced, o r t h e q u a n t i t y o f a major input.'.'  The l a s t two o f t h e t h r e e o p t i o n s  open f o r i n p u t - o u t p u t  remain  models o f t h e e c o l o g i c system and so  i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e economic and e c o l o g i c systems may p r o c e e d , a t t h e t h e o r e t i c a l l e v e l , w i t h i n t h e framework o f a commodity by  i n d u s t r y model.  (Of course, the o b j e c t i o n s r a i s e d  against  the assumption o f f i x e d p r o p o r t i o n s  i n the d i s c u s s i o n o f Daly's  model h o l d e q u a l l y w e l l f o r I s a r d ' s  model).  Quadrants (3) and 0) i n t a b l e (2) r e q u i r e o n l y a moment's a t t e n tion.  Quadrant (3) d i s p l a y s t h e i n p u t and output o f e c o l o g i c  commodities t o economic a c t i v i t i e s , a g a i n i n c o e f f i c i e n t  format.  In l i k e manner, quadrantfl)shows t h e i n p u t s and o u t p u t s o f t h e economy t h a t e n t e r i n t o t h e e c o l o g i c p r o c e s s e s . T e c h n i c a l l y , I s a r d * s model cannot be f a u l t e d except by t h e s t u m b l i n g b l o c k s t h a t a r e u s u a l l y p u t i n t h e way o f p u r e l y economic i n p u t - o u t p u t models.  Fixed c o e f f i c i e n t production  f u n c t i o n s a r e assumed throughout  though, o f c o u r s e , i f o t h e r  d a t a about p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s does e x i s t , i t can be brought i n t o t h e model.  The p o i n t i s t h a t I s a r d * s model has t o f a c e t h e  w e l l known problems o f i n p u t - o u t p u t t e c h n i q u e s but a p a r t more e x t e n s i v e d a t a requirements  from  t h e model r a i s e s no new problems  o f i t s own. The s p e c i a l d a t a requirements been commented upon.  o f I s a r d ' s model have a l r e a d y  Rather than t u r n t o a s i m p l e r model f o r t h e  purpose o f a c t u a l l y s t u d y i n g t h e e c o l o g i c consequences o f economic a c t i v i t y , I s a r d has attempted  t o a p p l y h i s model t o t h e Plymouth  Bay a r e a i n P h i l a d e l p h i a , U.S.A. problems were encountered  As expected, t h e g r e a t e s t d a t a  w i t h r e s p e c t t o quadrant (4,) the e c o l o g i c  system . U n l i k e t h e s i g n i f i c a n t body o f d a t a t h a t a l r e a d y e x i s t s f o r t h e economic system, t h e r e i s v e r y l i t t l e e s t a b l i s h e d data f o r the e c o l o g i c system from which one can draw when a t t e m p t i n g t o put I s a r d ' s model t o work.  But t h i s does n o t mean t h a t economic e c o l -  o g i c models based upon i n p u t - o u t p u t p r i n c i p l e s need t o be abandoned.  or shelved u n t i l the ecologic system has been quantified.  Quad-  rants l a n d ( l ) o f Table(3)serve to l i n k the economic and ecologic systems.  Knowledge of these l i n k s can be very useful i n decisions  about how the economic system should operate even i f i t i s not yet clear how  inputs to the ecologic system, quadrantd) a f f e c t  the outputs from the ecologic system, quadrant^)* Moreover, the data problems are less severe f o r quadrants(l)and(3)than f o r quadrant 4.  Unlike quadrant(4,)quadrants(i)and(3)relate d i r e c t l y  to i n d u s t r i a l processes about which a considerable amount of data either already exists or can be collected with r e l a t i v e ease, and i t i s these quadrants which becomes the focus of' attention i n the next models to be presented.  FOOTNOTES— Chapter II  1.  R. U. Ayres and A. V. Kneese, "Production, Consumption, and Externalities," The American Economic Review, LIX (June, 1969) 282-297; H. E. Daly, "On Economics as a Life Science", The Journal of P o l i t i c a l Economy, 76 (May/June, 1968) 392-406. W. Isard, "Some Notes on the Linkage of the Ecologic and Economic Systems",(paper delivered to the Regional Science and Landscape Analysis Project, Department of Landscape Architecture, Harvard University and the Regional Science Research Institute, March 27, 1969).  2.  Ayres and Kneese, "Production, Consumption and Externalities", 284.  3.  Ibid., 284.  4.  Ibid. ,290  5.  Daly, "On Economics as a Life Science".  6.  To be perfectly correct the material balance equations should be written in terms of mass rather than weight. The mass of an object i s constant although i t s weight depends upon the force of  g r a v i t y which, i n t u r n , depends upon t h e o b j e c t ' s p r o x i m i t y t o other objects.  However, f o r the purposes f o r which the  Kneese model and o t h e r s i m i l a r models a r e d e s i g n e d s u f f i c i e n t l y c l o s e approximation  Ayres-  i t is a  t o assume t h a t the weight o f  an o b j e c t i s a c o n s t a n t r e g a r d l e s s o f i t s p o s i t i o n on E a r t h . With t h i s assumption weight s e r v e s as a measure o f mass and may  7.  be l e g i t i m a t e l y used i n the m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e  Ayres and Kneese^ " P r o d u c t i o n , Consumption and 290.  8.  Ibid.  9.  Ibid.,  291.  10.  Ibid.,  290.  11.  Ibid.  12.  Ibid.,  287.  13.  Ibid.,  292.  14.  Ibid.,  291.  equations.  Externalities",  15.  Ibid.,  293.  15.  Ibid;  17.  Ibid.  18.  Ibid.  19.  See, f o r example, W. L e o n t i e f , The S t r u c t u r e o f t h e American Economy,  1919-1939 (New  York:  Oxford U n i v e r s i t y  P r e s s , 1951).  20.  D a l y , "On Economics as a L i f e  Science".  21.  Ibid.,  402.  22.  Ibid.,  403.  23.  Ibid.,  404.  24.  See, f o r example, t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n R. E r l i c h and A.  Erlich,  P o p u l a t i o n , Resources and Environment.  I s s u e s i n Human E c o l o g y  (San  1970).  Francisco:  W. H. Freeman and Co.,  25.  Isard,  "Systems".  26.  Ibid.,  14.  27.  Ibid.,  3.  28.  See, f o r example G. R o s e n b l u t h , "Input-Output A n a l y s i s :  A  C r i t i q u e " S t a t i s t i c h e H e f t e 9 (Number 4, 1968), 255-268; T. G i g a n t e s and P. P r i t t s ,  "An I n t e g r a t e d Input-Output Frame-  work and Some R e l a t e d A n a l y t i c a l Models" the  (paper p r e s e n t e d a t  Canadian P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , Conference on  Statistics,  University of British  June 12-13, 1965);  Columbia, Vancouver,  B.C.,  T. G i g a n t e s and T. I . Matuszewski,  " R e c t a n g u l a r Input-Output Systems, Taxonomy and A n a l y s i s " , (paper p r e s e n t e d a t the F o u r t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l Conference • on Input-Output Techniques, P a l a i s des N a t i o n s , Geneva, January 8-12,  29-  1968).  Rosenbluth's paper i s a c o n v e n i e n t summary o f the advantages commodity-by-industry  of  i n p u t - o u t p u t models.  30.  I b i d . , 257.(See  Chapter V. pp-357-363, f o r an attempt t o do  31.  See, f o r example, R. R i d k e r , Economic  this).  Costs o f A i r P o l l u t i o n :  S t u d i e s . i n Measurement, P r a e g e r S p e c i a l S t u d i e s i n U n i t e d S t a t e s Economic  and S o c i a l Development. (New  York, F r e d e r i c k A. P r a e g e r ,  1967). 32.  R o s e n b l u t h , "Input-Output A n a l y s i s " ,  257  COMMODITY BY INDUSTRY INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS AND THE STUDY QF ECONOMIC-ECOLOGIC INTER-RELATIONS  A.  INTRODUCTION The purpose o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o examine, i n c o n s i d e r a b l e d e t a i l , t h e a n a l y t i c a l p r o p e r t i e s o f two i n p u t - o u t p u t models t h a t can be used t o d e s c r i b e some important r e l a t i o n s between a c t i v i t y and t h e environment.  economic  In o r d e r t o a v o i d c o n f u s i o n a t a  l a t e r stage i t i s u s e f u l t o begin with a.presentation o f the c o n c e p t u a l framework o f these models.  F o l l o w i n g t h i s w i l l be a  d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e a c c o u n t i n g d a t a on which a v a r i e t y o f models can be based.  The way w i l l then be c l e a r f o r t h e development  o f t h e two a n a l y t i c a l models, which have been s e l e c t e d as t h e basis f o r the empirical section o f t h i s  B.  study.  THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK The world a s seen by t h e economist i s a world o f p e o p l e , i n d u s t r i e s and commodities, where commodities a r e t a k e n t o i n c l u d e raw m a t e r i a l s , goods i n p r o c e s s and f i n i s h e d goods and services.  A l l economic models make some a l l o w a n c e f o r each o f  t h e s e broad c a t e g o r i e s o f t h i n g s and i n s t i t u t i o n s .  This i s just  as t r u e o f f u l l y - f l e d g e d macroeconomic models as i t i s o f t h e most n a r r o w l y f o c u s s e d microeconomic models.  Indeed, economic models  may  be d i s t i n g u i s h e d by the d i f f e r e n t ways i n which p e o p l e ,  i n d u s t r i e s and commodities a r e brought  into r e l a t i o n with  each o t h e r . In t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t models which a r e t o be d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r , i n d u s t r i e s and commodities appear e x p l i c i t l y . ' i n d u s t r y ' i s used  "The  term  i n i t s b r o a d e s t sense t o i n c l u d e a l l economic  a c t i v i t y from primary  i n d u s t r i e s such as a g r i c u l t u r e and  t o t h o s e concerned w i t h t h e r e n d e r i n g o f s e r v i c e s .  forestry  An i n d u s t r y  i s composed o f e s t a b l i s h m e n t s engaged i n the same o r a  similar  k i n d o f economic a c t i v i t y , e.g. l o g g i n g camps, c o a l mines, c l o t h i n g f a c t o r i e s , department s t o r e s , l a u n d r i e s .... purposes  an  For  statistical  ' e s t a b l i s h m e n t ' i s d e f i n e d as t h e s m a l l e s t u n i t which  i s a s e p a r a t e o p e r a t i n g e n t i t y c a p a b l e o f r e p o r t i n g a l l elements basic industrial s t a t i s t i c s .  T h i s means t h a t f o r purposes  of  i n d u s t r i a l s u r v e y s , d a t a a r e gathered from the most homogeneous u n i t s t h a t m a i n t a i n accounts which permit them t o r e p o r t on t h e i r main elements  o f i n p u t and  output."  1  Thus i n d u s t r i e s a r e made up o f e s t a b l i s h m e n t s t h a t s i m i l a r t y p e s o f economic a c t i v i t y .  T h i s a c t i v i t y may  i n terms o f the i n p u t and output o f commodities. study two t y p e s o f commodities are d i s t i n g u i s h e d : ecologic.  Economic commodities'are  undertake be  viewed  In t h e p r e s e n t economic and  either materials, materials  t h a t have been p r o c e s s e d o r end-products.  They are t h e output o f  of  i n d u s t r i e s o r the m a t e r i a l s and  s u p p l i e s used by i n d u s t r i e s  2 o r goods bought by consumers." an  input-output  For the purposes o f  model, s e r v i c e s such as i n s u r a n c e  tainment are i n c l u d e d  i n the above d e f i n i t i o n o f  Furthermore, economic commodities may market p r i c e s . which are not attached  be t r a d e d  constructing  and  enter-  commodities. at p o s i t i v e  In c o n t r a s t t o t h i s are e c o l o g i c commodities, traded  t o them.  and  do not  have p o s i t i v e market p r i c e s  E c o l o g i c commodities are the m a t e r i a l  inputs  and o u t p u t s o f economic u n i t s t h a t a r e not marketable where economic u n i t s i n c l u d e consumers as w e l l as p r o d u c e r s . commodities do not  Ecologic  i n c l u d e s e r v i c e s , hence oxygen used i n the  i n t e r n a l combustion engine i s an e c o l o g i c commodity whereas the view o f a l a n d s c a p e i s n o t . The  c r u c i a l d i s t i n c t i o n between e c o l o g i c and  economic  commodities i s t h a t an e c o l o g i c commodity o n l y p a s s e s from economic u n i t t o another by g o i n g through a p a r t o f the  one  environment  t h a t i s not h e l d as p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y .  T h i s statement r e f l e c t s  underlying  o f what makes a commodity  i n s t i t u t i o n a l determination  economic o r e c o l o g i c . resource be  i t s use  Given t h a t a i r i n a c i t y i s a  would command a p r i c e i f p r o p e r t y  e s t a b l i s h e d over. i t .  S i n c e t h i s i s not  wastes from automobiles a r e produced and,  the  scarce  r i g h t s could  the c a s e ,  airborne  i f t h e y are not  by the environment, they are c a r r i e d i n the a i r u n t i l t h e y  absorbed are  e i t h e r b r e a t h e d i n or used as an unwanted i n p u t i n an  industrial  process.  inter-  Economic commodities do not go through t h i s  mediate stage o f non-ownership between producer and  consumer.  Indeed, the t r a n s f e r o f an economic commodity means the t r a n s f e r o f ownership o f t h a t commodity and  this transfer i s effected  v i a the market or w i t h the Government a c t i n g as an  intermediary.  In e i t h e r case an economic commodity i s always t h e p r o p e r t y a person o r an The  institution.  observation  t h a t e c o l o g i c commodities come from or  t o a p a r t o f the environment t h a t i s not u n i t allows  of  owned by any  a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f e c o l o g i c commodities  t o the r e l e v a n t e n v i r o n m e n t a l media: c l a s s i f i c a t i o n w i l l be  introduced  l a n d , a i r and  go  economic according  water.  i n t o the a c c o u n t i n g  This  framework,  a d i s c u s s i o n o f which f o l l o w s i n the next s e c t i o n . I t should  be n o t e d t h a t the d e f i n i t i o n o f e c o l o g i c  g i v e n above does not  cover a l l t h a t i s commonly i n c l u d e d i n the  economist's c a t e g o r y o f e x t e r n a l i t i e s . and  commodities  Although both e x t e r n a l i t i e s  e c o l o g i c commodities, as d e f i n e d h e r e , are e x t e r n a l t o  market, o n l y the former i n c l u d e s the activities.  In the p r e s e n t  intangible e f f e c t s of  study, a t t e n t i o n i s focussed  on the nonmarketable m a t e r i a l i n p u t s and activity.  the various  entirely  o u t p u t s o f economic  T h i s i s l a r g e l y because i t has proved d i f f i c u l t  enough  a t the e m p i r i c a l l e v e l t o take account o f the m a t e r i a l waste  products. of  N e v e r t h e l e s s , a complete a n a l y s i s o f t h e o p e r a t i o n s  an economy would have t o i n c l u d e such matters as t h e a e s t h e t i c  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f urban d e s i g n which go beyond t h e u n s i g h t l i n e s s of  wastes. People do n o t e n t e r e x p l i c i t l y  i n t o i n p u t - o u t p u t models.  I n s t e a d t h e i r s e r v i c e s i n t h e form o f s u p p l i e s o f l a b o u r and managerial  t a l e n t a r e r e g i s t e r e d by t h e payments f o r these  s e r v i c e s t h a t do appear i n t h e model.  People, i n t h e i r other  r o l e as consumers, p r o v i d e a l l t h e sources o f f i n a l demand i n the i n p u t - o u t p u t model.  T h i s i n c l u d e s t h e f i n a l demand by  Governments which may be thought  o f , i n t h i s c o n t e x t , as a b u y i n g  agency t h a t o p e r a t e s on b e h a l f o f t h e p e o p l e .  C.  THE ACCOUNTING  FRAMEWORK  Table 3 d e p i c t s the accounting data f o r a s p e c i f i e d  time  p e r i o d , which can be used a s t h e b a s i s f o r a v a r i e t y o f i n p u t output models.  A l l t h e e n t r i e s , except t h o s e f o r e c o l o g i c  commodities are i n d o l l a r terms a t base p e r i o d p r i c e s .  The  e c o l o g i c commodities a r e base p e r i o d q u a n t i t i e s measured i n the a p p r o p r i a t e p h y s i c a l u n i t s . For purposes  (See page 19 )  o f e x p o s i t i o n T a b l e 3 has been d i v i d e d i n t o 17  m a t r i c e s and v e c t o r s and one s c a l a r . described i n turn.  Each o f t h e s e w i l l be  - 54 TABLE 3 AN ECONOIHIC-ECOLOGIC INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE ECONOMIC COMMODITIES  INDUSTRIES  FINAL OEMAND 1,  ECONOMIC TOTALS  ,f  ECOLOGIC COMMODITIES LAND AIR WATER n+1, t+1, v+1, • • j t ••• • $v z  E  ^  ! *°  G  • • • • f  1, 3  c. l  |j A  B  g  j1  C  G  n 1,  • •  e. J  •  0  'JI  e  F  in  \>  • P 1  H  C  1  c  °1  e  n+1,  •  a  U  m  t • V  • z  S  .j K  k  r  u  R  •t  0  1 P  q  i  q  i  *l  C  Notation: C a p i t a l l e t t e r s are used f o r m a t r i c e s ; used f o r v e c t o r s and  lower  case l e t t e r s  s c a l a r s . The n o t a t i o n and d e f i n i t i o n  symbols i n t r o d u c e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n a r e s u s t a i n e d the  are of  throughout  chapter.  M a t r i x A ( o r d e r n x m)  - an element, a.., i n t h i s m a t r i x shows X 2  til  the input of the i  t i l  economic commodity t o the j  ( i = 1, n j j = 1, m). M a t r i x B (n x f ) - an element, b..,  13  f i n a l demand f o r t h e i of f i n a l demand; (These fixed  industry:  i n t h i s m a t r i x shows t h e  economic commodity by the j  ( i = l , ... ,nj j = 1 ,  category  .. . , f ) .  c a t e g o r i e s i n c l u d e consumer e x p e n d i t u r e , government c a p i t a l f o r m a t i o n , change i n i n v e n t o r i e s h e l d by  and e x p o r t s .  expenditure,  establishments  Imports are e n t e r e d as a n e g a t i v e demand f o r economic  commodities). Vector c ( n x 1) - an element, c ^ , i n t h i s v e c t o r , found by summing the elements o f the i * * domestic  1  row  supply o f the i ^  1  o f m a t r i c e s A and  B, shows t h e  economic commodity ( i = 1,  total n)  M a t r i x D (m x n) - an element, d „ , i n t h i s m a t r i x shows the "til  of the i ...  output  t i l  economic commodity by t h e j  i n d u s t r y ; ( i = 1,  ...,n;j=l,  fa).  V e c t o r e (m x 1) - an element, e^, i n t h i s v e c t o r , found by t h e elements o f the j  til  row  o f m a t r i x D, shows t h e t o t a l  summing  industrial  output  til o f the j i n d u s t r y ( j = l , ..., m).  Matrix F ( m x ( z - n  + D ) - an element, f ^ , i n t h i s  th shows t h e d i s c h a r g e o f t h e i i n d u s t r y ( j = 1,  m):  When i = n + 1,  t  matrix  "th e c o l o g i c commodity by t h e j  t h e d i s c h a r g e i s onto l a n d .  When i = f + 1, . . . . , v  the discharge i s into the a i r .  When i = v + 1  t h e d i s c h a r g e i s i n t o water.  , z  M a t r i x G (n x ( z - n +1)) - an element, gj^> i n t h i s m a t r i x shows the output  th of the i  e c o l o g i c commodity d i s c h a r g e d as a r e s u l t t h  o f t h e f i n a l demand f o r t h e j  economic commodity.  t , t h e d i s c h a r g e i s onto l a n d . discharge i s into the a i r .  When i = t + 1,  When i = v + 1,  i s i n t o water, ( i = n + 1, . . . , z ;  When i = n + 1, v, the  Z j the discharge  j = 1, . . . . , n ) .  M a t r i x H (p x m) - an element, I K ^ , i n t h i s m a t r i x shows t h e expen"th d i t u r e on t h e i primary  i n p u t ( f o r example, wages, s a l a r i e s , th  i n d i r e c t t a x e s and p r o f i t s ) , by t h e j j  industry;  ( i = l,...,p;  = 1, .. .., m).  M a t r i x K (p x f ) - an element, k^^, shows t h e e x p e n d i t u r e on t h e i  t l 5  primary  i n p u t by t h e j * * c a t e g o r y o f f i n a l demand, ( i = 1, 1  p; j = 1, n). V e c t o r L (p x 1) - an element, 1^, i n t h i s v e c t o r , found by summing th the elements o f t h e i expenditure  on t h e i  t  row o f m a t r i c e s K and K shows t h e t o t a l h  primary  input;  ( i = 1,  p).  Vector  (1 x n ) - an element,  c  summing t h e elements  , o f t h i s v e c t o r , found by i  c  o f the i  column o f m a t r i x D shows t h e  t o t a l output o f t h e economic commodity, ( i = 1  , n), c'  i s the transpose o f the vector c. i  Vector e  (1 x m) - an element,  summing t h e elements  of the i * *  e^, o f t h i s v e c t o r , found by column o f m a t r i c e s A and H, shows  1  t h e t o t a l economic i n p u t s o f t h e i  t  h  i n d u s t r y ( i = 1,  m).  t  e  i s t h e t r a n s p o s e o f v e c t o r e.  V e c t o r o* (1 x f ) - an element, summing t h e elements  o f t h e x"*  column o f m a t r i c e s B and K, shows  1  t h e t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e by t h e i * * commodities and primary  o^, o f t h i s v e c t o r , found by  1  c a t e g o r y o f f i n a l demand on economic  i n p u t s ; ( i = 1,  f ) .  S c a l a r p - t h i s s c a l a r p i s e q u a l t o t h e sum o f t h e elements o.  I t i s a l s o e q u a l t o t h e sum o f t h e elements  of vector  o f v e c t o r 1.  (As  e x p l a i n e d on page 60 the f a c t t h a t p e q u a l s both o f t h e s e summations r e f l e c t s t h e i d e n t i t y o f Gross Domestic E x p e n d i t u r e and Gross Domestic P r o d u c t ) . Vector q ( l x z - n by summing t h e i * *  1  + l ) - an element,  element o f t h e columns o f m a t r i c e s F and G, th  shows t h e t o t a l output o f t h e i i  = n + 1,  e c o l o g i c commodity.  t t h e d i s c h a r g e i s onto l a n d .  the d i s c h a r g e i s i n t o t h e a i r . i s i n t o water.  q^,, i n t h i s v e c t o r , found  When  When i = t + 1,  ... v, s  When i = v + 1, ..., z, t h e d i s c h a r g e  ( T h i s a l s o h o l d s f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g m a t r i c e s R, S and  M a t r i x R ((z-n+1 )  x m)  - an element, r . . , i n t h i s m a t r i x  "th the input of the i  M a t r i x S ((z-n  "til e c o l o g i c commodity used by t h e j  z;  ( i = n + 1,  j = 1,  "th  i n t h i s matrix  shows  e c o l o g i c commodity used i n c o n j u n c t i o n  "th  t h e f i n a l demand f o r t h e j j = 1,  industry  ...,n)  + 1) x n) - an element, S ^ ,  the i n p u t o f t h e i  shows  with ...zj  economic commodity, ( i = n + l ,  ....n).  V e c t o r t ((z-n  + 1) x 1) - an  element, t ^ , i n t h i s v e c t o r found  "th by summing the elements o f the i the t o t a l input of the i * *  1  row  of matrices  R and  S shows  e c o l o g i c commodity t o i n d u s t r y  and  f i n a l demand. These 17 m a t r i c e s , v e c t o r s and t h e one do not  s c a l a r d e s c r i b e d above  exhaust a l l o f t h e m e a n i n g f u l m a t r i c e s  are included i n Table  and v e c t o r s t h a t  3, though they do i n c l u d e a l l the ones which  a r e r e q u i r e d f o r the a n a l y t i c a l models which a r e t o f o l l o w . developing  t h e s e models, however, i t i s n e c e s s a r y  more d e t a i l some o f t h e important i n the d a t a o f Table  3.  accounting  Before  t o s p e l l out i n  identities  contained  THE  COMMODITY-BY-INDUSTRY ACCOUNTING SCHEME  S e v e r a l i d e n t i t i e s may be e s t a b l i s h e d : .  a i=l  3  3  1  The v a l u e o f the output o f an i n d u s t r y i s e q u a l t o t h e summation o f the v a l u e o f t h e output o f each economic commodity produced  by the  industry.  m = .E, d i .. i i=l  c. 1  ( n} V Ji-=Xl, ...,n;  o 2  th T o t a l output o f t h e i of the i * t  C  i  =  1  economic commodity i s t h e sum o f t h e o u t p u t s  commodity from each o f t h e m i n d u s t r i e s . ro E A j=l  a  f a .. + E i j * j=l +  1  3  T o t a l use o f t h e i * *  1  b  i j  (i=l,...,n)  economic commodity i s t h e sum o f i t s use by  each o f t h e m i n d u s t r i e s p l u s t h e sum o f i t s use by each o f t h e f c a t e g o r i e s o f f i n a l demand. S i n c e , by d e f i n i t i o n , t h e t o t a l output o f t h e i " * 1  1  economic  commodity i s equal t o i t s t o t a l use, i d e n t i t i e s 2 and 1 may be combined t o g i v e an e x p r e s s i o n f o r t h e f i n a l demand o f t h e i * *  1  economic commodity as t h e n e t output o f t h e i  economic commodity,  by each o f t h e m i n d u s t r i e s :  f Z j=l  m b . . = Z ( d . . - a. .) 13 j = i 13 X3  (i=i, .  n  )  The d a t a f o r T a b l e 3 might be taken from t h e accounts o f a r e g i o n o f any s i z e .  I f t h e n a t i o n a l accounts a r e used then i t i s  p o s s i b l e t o develop t h e f a m i l i a r n a t i o n a l a c c o u n t i n g from t h e d a t a i n T a b l e 3.  identities  On t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s i d e , g r o s s  domestic  e x p e n d i t u r e a t market p r i c e s (GDEm) i s t h e sum o f a l l c a t e g o r i e s of  f i n a l demand.  (Imports a r e e n t e r e d as n e g a t i v e f i n a l demand).  GEEm e q u a l s p i n T a b l e 3.  GDEm  The  =  f E j=l  n p (Eb..+ Ik..) i=l i=l ^ 1  3  income e q u i v a l e n t o f GDEm i s g r o s s domestic  market p r i c e s , '(GDPm). primary  product a t  T h i s i s t h e sum t o t a l o f t h e v a r i o u s  i n p u t s , (p i n T a b l e 3)  GDPm  p m = Z ( E h . - + i=l j=i ^  f E k..) j=i 1  3  Since t h e t o t a l economic output o f a l l i n d u s t r i e s e q u a l s t h e sum  o f i n t e r m e d i a t e demands and f i n a l demands; .  n Z c. 1 i=l  f n Z Z b. j=l i = l 3  n m Z Z a. . i=lj=l ^  x  The t o t a l economic output o f a l l i n d u s t r i e s equals t h e sum o f t o t a l i n t e r m e d i a t e i n p u t s and t o t a l primary i n p u t s :  n Zc. i=l  n m = Z Z a.. i = l 3=1  p m + Z Zh. i = l ]=1  J  J  If follows that:  f Z j=l  n ( Z b. . i=l 1  which i s GDEm  +  3  =  p Z k. . ) i=l 1  3  =  p m Z ( Z h.. i = l j=l 1  3  f + Ek... j = l ^  GDPm.  So f a r a l l o f t h e i d e n t i t i e s t h a t have been p r e s e n t e d have r e f e r r e d o n l y t o t h e economic d a t a i n T a b l e 3.  Other  may be e s t a b l i s h e d which make use o f t h e d a t a r e l a t i n g e c o l o g i c commodities. balance i d e n t i t i e s .  identities t o the  These i d e n t i t i e s may be c a l l e d m a t e r i a l I t i s common p r a c t i c e i n t h e Chemical E n g i n e e r i n g  3 literature  t o view a p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s as an i n f l o w o f raw mater-  i a l s and energy and a consequent  o u t f l o w o f u s e f u l p r o d u c t s , waste  and no  energy.  The  law o f c o n s e r v a t i o n  o f mass i m p l i e s t h a t i f  change i n i n v e n t o r y t a k e s p l a c e w i t h i n the p l a n t t h e  mass o f m a t e r i a l i n f l o w s equals outflows.  combined  the combined mass o f m a t e r i a l  T h i s i s what i s meant by a m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e .  an energy b a l a n c e may  (Similarly,  be d e r i v e d from the law o f c o n s e r v a t i o n  of  energy.) Any  process  i n p u t s and  o r complex o f p r o c e s s e s  o u t p u t s may  data i n Table  which i n v o l v e s m a t e r i a l  be d e s c r i b e d by a m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e .  3 can be used t o  The  define m a t e r i a l balances f o r  the e n t i r e economy or f o r p r o d u c t i o n To do t h i s i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o pay  and  consumption  separately.  c l o s e a t t e n t i o n t o the u n i t s o f  measurement, s i n c e m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e i d e n t i t i e s a r e p h y s i c a l identities,  i n the sense t h a t they are statements o f t h e p h y s i c a l  law o f the c o n s e r v a t i o n  o f mass.  For the i d e n t i t i e s , which a r e  t o be d e r i v e d , t o be a c o r r e c t r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h i s law conservation, mass.  i n p u t s and  of  o u t p u t s must be measured i n u n i t s o f  For a l l E a r t h l y purposes weight s e r v e s as an a c c u r a t e  o f mass.  Although the e n t r i e s i n T a b l e  and p r o d u c t i o n  3  r e l a t i n g t o the  measure  use  o f e c o l o g i c commodities are i n terms o f weight,  the economic d a t a are  i n monetary u n i t s .  S i n c e t h e r e i s no  s t r i c t r e l a t i o n between a commodity's market p r i c e and t h e economic d a t a o f T a b l e  i t s weight,  3 cannot be used i n m a t e r i a l balance  i d e n t i t i e s without f u r t h e r q u a l i f i c a t i o n .  The  point i s that i t i s  the weight of the economic commodities which are of interest and t h i s w i l l be indicated i n the material balance i d e n t i t i e s by placing a l i n e above a l l parts of the i d e n t i t y which r e f e r to economic commodities. of the i * * then a. .  1  Hence, i f a^j i s the d o l l a r value  economic commodity used as an input by the j * * industry, 1  i s the weight of the i * *  1  economic commodity used as  "th an input by the j  industry.  It i s convenient to assume that the economy i s closed t o foreign trade and to look f i r s t at the materials balance i d e n t i t y for  i n d u s t r i a l production alone. A l l material inflows to industry are, i n the f i r s t instance  ecologic commodities.  Thus when iron ore, coal and oxygen are  i n i t i a l l y used as inputs by primary industries they are not purchased from other i n d u s t r i e s , but are extracted d i r e c t l y from the environment.  The material outflows from the i n d u s t r i a l  sector take three forms: and waste  products.  c a p i t a l accumulation, consumer goods  The mass of these outputs must be equal  to the mass of ecologic commodities  used as i n d u s t r i a l inputs i f  the law of conservation of mass i s to be s a t i s f i e d .  Identity  (10) expresses the materials balance condition f o r aggregate i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y i n a closed economy: m E j=l  z E r . . i=n+l 1 3  =  f E j=l  n E b i=l i 3  +  m E j=l  z E f . . i=n+l ] 1  10  T h i s i d e n t i t y says t h a t t h e mass o f m a t e r i a l i n p u t s o f i n d u s t r y m (  z  E j=l  E r . . ) must e q u a l t h e mass o f m a t e r i a l o u t p u t s o f i=n+l 1 3  industry.  These outputs i n c l u d e a l l t h e consumer goods,  investment,change  fixed  i n i n v e n t o r i e s o f f i n i s h e d and s e m i f i n i s h e d  goods t h a t a r e purchased as f i n a l demand  i n d u s t r i a l wastes  m ( E j=l  f ( E j=l  n E b,. ) i=l  plus  J  z E f..) i=n+l J  The f i n a l demand s e c t o r h a s , as i n p u t s , t h e economic commodities  produced by t h e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r and a l s o some  e c o l o g i c commodities gasoline  such as oxygen used i n t h e combustion o f  i n motor-cars.  i d e n t i t i e s apply, there  I f , i n the  time p e r i o d t o which t h e  i s no change i n t h e accumulated s t o c k o f  c a p i t a l goods, i n v e n t o r i e s , and consumer d u r a b l e s , demand s e c t o r may be d e s c r i b e d  then t h e f i n a l  by t h e f o l l o w i n g m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e  identity:  f Z j=l  n E b . . i=l 1 3  +  n z n z E E . s . . s E Eg.. j=l i=n+l j=l i=n+l 1 ]  11  1 3  T h i s i d e n t i t y shows t h a t , w i t h no change i n i n v e n t o r i e s , t h e mass o f economic  (  z E j=l  commodities  n E b . .) i=l 1  3  purchased by t h e f i n a l demand s e c t o r  p l u s t h e mass o f e c o l o g i c commodities used by t h a t  sector  n ( E j=l  z,-' E s..) i=n+l  must be e q u a l t o t h e mass o f e c o l o g i c  1 3  commodities produced  by t h e f i n a l demand s e c t o r .  In c o n t r a s t  t o equation (10), which h o l d s i r r e s p e c t i v e o f whether t h e r e i s a change i n c a p i t a l s t o c k s , e q u a t i o n (11) o n l y h o l d s when t h e r e i s no such change. By s u b s t i t u t i n g e q u a t i o n (11) i n t o e q u a t i o n (12) a t h i r d m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e i d e n t i t y i s o b t a i n e d which a p p l i e s t o b o t h t h e p r o d u c t i o n and consumption a c t i v i t i e s o f t h e e n t i r e economy:  m z E Er.. + j=l i=n+l  n z E Es.. j = l i=n+l  1 3  1 3  =  m . z n z E Ef.. + E Eg.. j = l i=n+l j = l i=n+l 3 1  12  1 3  which may be w r i t t e n a s :  z E t. isn+1 1  =  z E q. i^+1 1  I d e n t i t y (12) shows t h a t , when t h e r e i s no change i n t h e mass o f c a p i t a l equipment, i n v e n t o r i e s o f f i n i s h e d and s e m i - f i n i s h e d goods, and consumer d u r a b l e s , t h e mass o f e c o l o g i c i n p u t s t o an economy must e q u a l t h e mass o f e c o l o g i c outputs from t h e economy. I f accumulation does o c c u r then equation (11) does not h o l d s i n c e t h e l e f t - h a n d s i d e exceeds t h e r i g h t - h a n d s i d e by t h e  mass o f accumulated  economic commodities.  This inequality i s  similarly reflected  i n e q u a t i o n (12) i n which t h e mass o f e c o l o g i c  i n p u t s t o t h e economy i s l e s s than o r g r e a t e r than t h e mass o f e c o l o g i c o u t p u t s a c c o r d i n g t o whether t h e mass o f accumulated economic commodities  f a l l s o r r i s e s d u r i n g t h e time t o which  the equations apply. I t i s important t o note t h a t c a p i t a l , i n t h e economic sense, i s measured i n terms o f i t s monetary v a l u e . monetary v a l u e o f an a s s e t i s no i n d i c a t i o n  In g e n e r a l t h e o f i t s mass and  so c a p i t a l accumulation o f t h e t y p e r e l e v a n t f o r m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e may o c c u r even i f t h e v a l u e o f t h e c a p i t a l s t o c k i s declining.  Something more d e f i n i t e than t h i s can be s a i d ,  however, once t h e d i s t i n c t i o n i s drawn between c a p i t a l and c a p i t a l widening.  deepening  Other t h i n g s . b e i n g e q u a l , c a p i t a l  that i s , the d u p l i c a t i o n  of existing  widening,  equipment, i s d i r e c t l y  t o an i n c r e a s e i n t h e mass o f accumulated  c a p i t a l equipment.  Capital  change i n t h e t y p e  deepening, which i s a q u a l i t a t i v e  related  o f c a p i t a l equipment b e a r s no f i x e d r e l a t i o n t o t h e mass o f accumulation c a p i t a l equipment. The m a t e r i a l s b a l a n c e i d e n t i t i e s ( 1 0 ) , (11) and (12) were d e r i v e d f o r a c l o s e d economy.  In an open economy account must  be taken o f t h e r e l a t i v e masses o f imported and e x p o r t e d economic commodities.  The mass o f economic commodities  entering  final  f n , ( E I b.. j=l i=l  demand  1  )  must i n c l u d e t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e  3  mass o f e x p o r t s and t h e mass o f imports i f i d e n t i t i e s and  (11)  identity  a r e t o apply (12)  t o an open economy.  t o be a c o r r e c t f o r m u l a t i o n  (10)  Furthermore, f o r of the materials  b a l a n c e f o r an open economy i t i s i n s u f f i c i e n t f o r  there  t o be no change i n t h e mass o f accumulated economic commodities. I t must a l s o be t r u e t h a t t h e mass o f imports e q u a l s t h e mass of  exports.  ANALYTICAL MODELS AND C0MMODITY-BY-INDUSTRY ACCOUNTS The  twelve d e f i n i t i o n s and i d e n t i t i e s g i v e n above can be  used i n t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f a n a l y t i c a l models.  A l l such a n a l y t i c a l  models l i n k , i n one way o r a n o t h e r , commodity o u t p u t s t o commodity inputs.  Whereas t h e l i t e r a t u r e on commodity by i n d u s t r y  input-  1+  output odels m  outputs,  has d e a l t o n l y w i t h economic commodity i n p u t s and  the data contained  i n Table 3 f a c i l i t a t e s the construction  o f a n a l y t i c a l models t h a t i n c l u d e e c o l o g i c commodities as w e l l . What i s r e q u i r e d i s a model t h a t shows t h e way i n which economic commodities t h a t r e a c h f i n a l consumers a r e r e l a t e d t o t h e commodity f l o w s o f t h e e n t i r e economic system.  Such a model i s d e s i g n e d t o  a l l o w e s t i m a t e s o f t h e i n p u t s and o u t p u t s o f i n d u s t r i e s t h a t a r e required t o s a t i s f y a l t e r n a t i v e patterns  o f f i n a l demand.  For purposes o f e x p o s i t i o n  i t helps t o concentrate  solely  on t h e economic d a t a i n T a b l e 3 so t h a t models can be b u i l t which can e v e n t u a l l y be adapted t o i n c l u d e t h e e c o l o g i c commodities. any  There a r e two key s t e p s  commodity by i n d u s t r y i n p u t - o u t p u t  i n the construction o f model.  The f i r s t i s  t o e s t a b l i s h t h e r e l a t i o n s between each i n d u s t r y and i t s commodity inputs.  The second s t e p i s t o d e f i n e p r e c i s e l y what i s meant  by one u n i t o f an i n d u s t r y ' s output so t h a t t h e commodity compos i t i o n o f a u n i t o f an i n d u s t r y ' s output may be determined.  5 G i g a n t e s and P i t t s  review nine input-output  models t h a t a r e  d i s t i n g u i s h e d from one another by t h e d i f f e r e n t assumptions t h a t serve t o l i n k outputs.  i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s w i t h commodity i n p u t s and commodity  In t h i s c h a p t e r o n l y two o f these models w i l l be examined  and t h e s e can be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e Input-Output Research and Development S t a f f o f t h e Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s 7 Professor  G. Rosenbluth  and  respectively.  Both o f t h e models make t h e same assumption about t h e r e l a t i o n s between each i n d u s t r y and i t s commodity i n p u t s i n t h a t they assume t h a t one u n i t o f an i n d u s t r y ' s output always r e q u i r e s t h e same q u a n t i t i e s o f commodity i n p u t s .  Where t h e  models d i f f e r , and t h i s i s fundamental, i s i n t h e assumed commodity composition o f one u n i t o f an i n d u s t r y ' s output.  Rosenbluth  assumes.that one u n i t o f an i n d u s t r y ' s output i s always composed o f t h e same q u a n t i t i e s o f commodity o u t p u t s .  Thus, Rosenbluth  makes v e r y s i m i l a r assumptions  about  i n p u t s and i t s commodity o u t p u t s .  an i n d u s t r y ' s commodity  The  same i s not t r u e o f the  D.B.S. model i n which i t i s assumed t h a t the t o t a l output o f each commodity i s produced  by d i f f e r e n t i n d u s t r i e s i n f i x e d  whatever the amount o f commodity t h a t i s produced.  proportion  In c o n t r a s t  t o t h e Rosenbluth model, where the commodity c o m p o s i t i o n o f an i n d u s t r y ' s output i s f i x e d i r r e s p e c t i v e o f the p a t t e r n  of  f i n a l demand, t h e n e c e s s a r y i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h e D.B.S. model i s t h a t the commodity c o m p o s i t i o n o f each i n d u s t r y ' s output must change w i t h every a l t e r a t i o n i n the p a t t e r n o f f i n a l demand.  It  would be premature t o e v a l u a t e the models u n t i l a f t e r the more d e t a i l e d p r e s e n t a t i o n which now  E . I . THE  follows.  D.B.S. MODEL ( E x c l u d i n g E c o l o g i c Commodities) The  assumption  i s made t h a t t h e t o t a l domestic output o f each  economic commodity i s produced These p r o p o r t i o n s may  by i n d u s t r i e s i n f i x e d  proportion.  be c a l c u l a t e d from t h e base p e r i o d d a t a o f  T a b l e 3 by d i v i d i n g each i n d u s t r y ' s output o f an economic commodity by t h e t o t a l domestic  d. . u • -  3i  -JLi.  c.  output o f t h a t commodity.  i=l,..., n j=l,..., m  l  g  1  "th u . . , a market share c o e f f i c i e n t , i s the j  i n d u s t r y ' s market share  o f t h e domestic p r o d u c t i o n o f the i  " commodity.  market share c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e i * " *  1  Note t h a t  commodity sum  I d e n t i t y (1) above, says t h a t the v a l u e o f the  the  to unity. total  output o f each i n d u s t r y i n the base p e r i o d i s g i v e n by the summation o f the v a l u e o f t h e output o f each economic commodity produced  by an i n d u s t r y :  e.  =  3  n £ d .. i=l  ( j = l , ..., m)  14  3 i  E q u a t i o n s (14) and  (1) can be used t o d e r i v e an e x p r e s s i o n f o r  i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s i n terms o f market share c o e f f i c i e n t s and  total  domestic commodity o u t p u t s , as g i v e n by e q u a t i o n ( 1 5 ) :  e.  =  3  T h i s may e  S  u. . c.  i=l  31  be expressed =  (j=l  , m)  15  1  i n m a t r i x form  as:  uc  16  where e i s an mxl v e c t o r o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s , e^, measured a t base period prices;  c i s an n x l v e c t o r o f economic commodity o u t p u t s ,  c^, a l s o measured a t base p e r i o d p r i c e s . l i n e a r l y r e l a t e d by t h e mxn market share c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  The v e c t o r s e and c are  m a t r i x U, which i s a m a t r i x o f the u...  31 Having e s t a b l i s h e d the commodity c o m p o s i t i o n o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s by e q u a t i o n (16)  i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o d e r i v e an e q u i v a l e n t  e x p r e s s i o n f o r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n d u s t r y outputs and economic commodity i n p u t s .  In t h e D.B.S. model i t i s assumed  t h a t t o produce a d o l l a r s worth o f output a t base p e r i o d 1  p r i c e s , an i n d u s t r y r e q u i r e s c e r t a i n f i x e d v a l u e s o f economic commodity  inputs.  T h i s assumption may be expressed by  equation (17):  l  ly.  -  x  e. 3  <  i=1  >  ») n  (3=1,  m)  v ^ j , t h e i n p u t c o e f f i c i e n t , i s t h e i n p u t requirement industry f o r the i * *  commodity p e r u n i t o f o u t p u t .  1  17  o f the j  th  This equation  h o l d s i r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e commodity c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e i n d u s t r y output e^ .  E q u a t i o n (17) can be r e a r r a n g e d t o g e t an e x p l i c i t  r e l a t i o n between i n d u s t r y output and commodity i n p u t , as i n equation (18): a  =  v  e J  J  ( i = l , . . . . , n) (3=1,...., m)  18  In m a t r i x n o t a t i o n e q u a t i o n (18) becomes: Al  =  Ve  19  A i s an m:xm m a t r i x o f commodity i n o u t s , a.. ,1 i s an mxl column  13  v e c t o r whose elements a l l e q u a l 1;  V i s an nxm m a t r i x o f i n p u t  c o e f f i c i e n t s , ' v^j , and e i s an mxl v e c t o r o f t h e v a l u e o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s , e_. . Equation  (19) p a r a l l e l s e q u a t i o n (16) i n t h a t once V, t h e  matrix o f input c o e f f i c i e n t s  , i s known any v e c t o r o f i n d u s t r y  outputs determines  p r e c i s e l y t h e r e q u i s i t e commodity i n p u t s .  The b a s i c model i s complete except f o r a statement a c c o u n t i n g i d e n t i t y t h a t domestic  o f the  commodity p r o d u c t i o n must  e q u a l i n t e r m e d i a t e i n p u t s p l u s f i n a l demand l e s s i m p o r t s .  This  i s o b t a i n e d by r e - a r r a n g i n g i d e n t i t y (*+): m Z  d..  • -i 3 3=1 J  Equation  m Z  =  1  a..  • , 3=1  J  13  +  f Z  3=1•_,  b..  13  (i=l,  , n)  20  (20) may be w r i t t e n i n m a t r i x form a s :  c  =  Al  +  Bl  21  c and A l have a l r e a d y been d e f i n e d . elements, commodity.  B i s an n x f m a t r i x whose  *t h "th b^_., show t h e j c a t e g o r y o f f i n a l demand f o r t h e i B i s p o s t - m u l t i p l i e d by an f x 1 v e c t o r 1, whose  elements a l l e q u a l u n i t y .  B l i s t h e r e f o r e an n x 1 v e c t o r o f  f i n a l demand, n e t o f i m p o r t s , f o r each commodity.  Substituting  e q u a t i o n (19) i n t o e q u a t i o n (21) t h e f o l l o w i n g a c c o u n t i n g balance i s obtained: c  = Ve + B l  22  S u b s t i t u t i o n o f equation  (16) i n t o e q u a t i o n (22) y i e l d s t h e  f o l l o w i n g i n p u t - o u t p u t models: c = / j - VU7 e = £i -  - 1  B1  UY7 U B 1 _ 1  23 24  E q u a t i o n (23) r e l a t e s  economic commodity o u t p u t s t o n e t f i n a l  demand and e q u a t i o n (24) r e l a t e s demand.  Thus, a . s p e c i f i e d  precisely  i n d u s t r y outputs t o net f i n a l  p a t t e r n o f n e t f i n a l demand determines  t h e economic commodity o u t p u t s ( e q u a t i o n 23) and t h e  i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s ( e q u a t i o n 24) t h a t a r e r e q u i r e d t o s u p p l y t h e f i n a l demands.  E.2.  THE D.B.S. MODEL WITH IMPORTS DETERMINED ENDOGENOUSLY Up t o t h i s p o i n t imports have been t r e a t e d as exogenous t o t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t models. o f t h e D.B.S. model endogenously.  The next s t e p i n t h e development  i s t o a l l o w imports t o be determined  Although t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l ways i n which t h i s  may be done t h i s s e c t i o n d e s c r i b e s t h e methodology used by  g the Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s results  so t h a t t h e e m p i r i c a l  o b t a i n e d w i t h t h e use o f t h e i r model may be used as t h e  f o u n d a t i o n f o r one o f t h e e c o n o m i c - e c o l o g i c models o f t h i s In t h e D.B.S. study a d i s t i n c t i o n and non-competing imports.  i s made between  study.  competing  Competing imports a r e so named  because t h e y a r e imported commodities which compete d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e same commodities produced  domestically.  of t h e accounts o f T a b l e 3 competing a column o f n e g a t i v e f i n a l demand. imported  In terms  imports a r e e n t e r e d as Non-competing imports a r e  commodities f o r which t h e r e a r e no domestic  sources  of  supply.  They are e n t e r e d i n t o ./the accounts o f T a b l e 3 as  one o r more rows o f economic commodity i n p u t s t o the  industries  t h a t purchase them, o r t o the c a t e g o r y o f f i n a l demand which  may  import them d i r e c t l y . T h i s d i s t i n c t i o n between competing i s the f i r s t  and non-competing  s t e p i n changing t h e a n a l y t i c a l s t r u c t u r e so f a r  developed t o a l l o w imports t o be determined competing  imports  imports are e a s i l y d e a l t w i t h .  endogenously.  When purchased  i n p u t s by i n d u s t r i e s , non-competing imports may  Nonas  be assumed t o  have the same r e l a t i o n t o i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s as any o t h e r commodity input.  I t i s thus assumed t h a t t o produce  a d o l l a r ' s worth o f  output, a t base p e r i o d p r i c e s , an i n d u s t r y r e q u i r e s c e r t a i n f i x e d v a l u e s o f imported domestic competing  economic commodity i n p u t s f o r which no  source o f s u p p l y e x i s t s .  In t h e case  where non-  imports a r e purchased d i r e c t l y as f i n a l demandthe  l e v e l o f non-competing imports used f o r t h i s purpose must be s p e c i f i e d t o g e t h e r w i t h a l l o t h e r e x p e n d i t u r e s by the v a r i o u s c a t e g o r i e s o f f i n a l demand. f i n a l demand i s determined  (In c l o s e d i n p u t - o u t p u t models, where endogenously,  a l l f i n a l demand, i n c l u d i n g  t h a t f o r non-competing i m p o r t s , must be f u n c t i o n a l l y r e l a t e d t o t h e primary  5.nputs).  The m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o t h e b a s i c model t h a t are n e c e s s a r y t o a l l o w competing  imports t o be determined  endogenously  a r e more  c o m p l i c a t e d than those j u s t The s i m p l e s t assumption  d e s c r i b e d f o r non-competing  f o r d e t e r m i n i n g the l e v e l s  imports i s t h a t t h e y a r e a f i x e d of  each commodity.  imports o f the i * *  1  =  competing  p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l  supply  E q u a t i o n (25) shows t h a t the c o m p e t i t i v e economic commodity a r e e q u a l t o some p r o -  p o r t i o n V. o f t h e t o t a l s u p p l y o f the i * *  y.  of  imports.  1  economic commodity:  u. ( c . + y.)  25  where y\ i s t h e t o t a l import o f the i * *  1  commodity.  In m a t r i x  notation: y  =  U (c + y)  26  y i s an n x 1 v e c t o r o f competing  imports,  c + y i s an n x 1 v e c t o r  o f t h e t o t a l s u p p l y o f each economic commodity. diagonal matrix of c o e f f i c i e n t s  which show what p r o p o r t i o n o f the  t o t a l s u p p l y o f each commodity i s imported. throughout  this  (I i s an m x n  (The  'hat' i s used  study t o i n d i c a t e a d i a g o n a l m a t r i x . )  E q u a t i o n (25) may  be combined w i t h e q u a t i o n s (16) and  (22) t o  o b t a i n t h e f o l l o w i n g i n p u t - o u t p u t model: e  = /T  - U*V7 U * B 1 * _1  27  where:  U*  =  U(I - fl)  Bl*  =  Bl + y  E q u a t i o n (27) i s an i n p u t - o u t p u t model which r e l a t e s g r o s s f i n a l demand B l + y t o domestic model, U* i s a new  i n d u s t r y output e.  In t h e  m a t r i x o f market share c o e f f i c i e n t s , where "til  the element  u  '*j£ shows t h e j  t o t a l supply of the i * " *  1  i n d u s t r y ' s market share o f the  commodity (as opposed t o i t s share o f  t o t a l domestic p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e i  "til  commodity).  a column o f market share c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  n E i=l  The sum  of  i n d i c a t e s the u*.., 3  1  "til  p r o p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l s u p p l y o f the i  commodity t h a t i s  produced d o m e s t i c a l l y . 9 As p o i n t e d out i n the D.B.S. study,  e q u a t i o n (27)  f a i l s t o a l l o w t h e b e s t use t o be made o f the t a b l e o f f o r which they have c o l l e c t e d d a t a .  still accounts  Since data f o r re-exports  i s a v a i l a b l e i t i s u s e f u l f o r the model t o take account o f t h e f a c t t h a t t h e import c o n t e n t o f e x p o r t s may t h e import content o f o t h e r elements  be d i f f e r e n t  from  o f demand.  Base p e r i o d d a t a f o r e x p o r t s and r e - e x p o r t s may  be used t o  e s t i m a t e c o e f f i c i e n t s showing the import c o n t e n t s o f e x p o r t s . D e f i n e x as an n x 1 v e c t o r o f exported commodities,  x.,and x i' m as an n x 1 v e c t o r o f r e - e x p o r t e d commodities, x.. . Then x and x a r e r e l a t e d by t h e d i a g o n a l m a t r i x fi which i s an n x n m a t r i x m 1  o f import content c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  f o r t h e export  category  o f f i n a l demand: x m The  import  =  li x  28  l  content o f any demand o t h e r than e x p o r t s i s c a l c u l a t e d  as f o l l o w s : y - x  = Uo (y - x + c ) m i s an m x n m a t r i x o f import c o n t e n t c o e f f i c i e n t s , J  fl o  29  J  u . ,  ox  f o r a l l elements o f demand e x c l u d i n g e x p o r t s . I t i s now p o s s i b l e t o r e ~ w r i t e t h e a c c o u n t i n g  balance  e q u a t i o n (22) a s : c  = Ve + B°l + x - y  where B°l  =  30  BI - x + y  An i n p u t - o u t p u t model which a l l o w s f o r d i f f e r e n t  import  o f e x p o r t s and non-exports i s o b t a i n e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g  content equations  ( 2 8 ) , (29) and (30) i n t o e q u a t i o n (16) A few s t e p s a r e n e c e s s a r y : e  =  Equation e  U/Ve + B°l + x -  substituting  y7  (30) i n t o ( 1 6 ) : 31  (31) may be w r i t t e n a s : =  U/_Ve + B°l +  x7 - Uy  32  S u b s t i t u t i n g (28) i n t o (29) g i v e s : y  =  0 x + tf (y - x + c ) 1  Q  33  S u b s t i t u t i n g (33) i n t o (32) e  = U/Ve — +B°1 +  x7 - U _ / ? 2. ,x + flo (y _  1  x + c )—7  34  S u b s t i t u t i n g f o r c i n (34) from (30) and s i m p l i f y i n g l e a d s t o t h e d e s i r e d e x p r e s s i o n f o r e: e  = /I - U(I —  Co )V7 —  -  1  U/Tl " —  0  )B°1 + ( I o  y 1)x7 —  35  ( E q u a t i o n (35) i s g i v e n i n t h e D.B.S. study without t h e above derivation).  E.3. THE D.B.S. MODEL AND PRIMARY INPUTS In t h e a c c o u n t s p r e p a r e d by t h e Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s , primary inputs a r e c l a s s i f i e d  into the following eight  a)  non-competing i m p o r t s ;  b)  b a l a n c e o f payments adjustment  categories:  1 0  ( e n t r i e s under t h i s heading a r e  the r e s u l t o f t h e attempted r e c o n c i l i a t i o n o f e x p o r t s and imports i n t h e p r e l i m i n a r y 1961 Input-Output  Accounts w i t h  worksheet  d e t a i . from t h e D.B.S. Balance o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Payments); 1  c)  commodity taxes ( i n d i r e c t t a x e s l e v i e d on commodities);  d)  subsidies;  e)  i n d i r e c t t a x e s and government s e r v i c e s ( i n d i r e c t t a x e s , such as l i c e n s i n g c h a r g e s , n o t l e v i e s on commodites, and payments f o r s e r v i c e s s u p p l i e d s o l e l y by t h e government  sector);  f)  wages and s a l a r i e s ;  g)  n e t income o f u n i n c o r p o r a t e d b u s i n e s s e s ;  h)  surplus (corporation p r o f i t s before taxes, c a p i t a l a l l o w a n c e s , v a l u a t i o n adjustments,  consumption  i n t e r e s t and o t h e r  investment  income). The  s i m p l e s t assumption t h a t a l l o w s t h e s e i n p u t s t o be  i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t model i s t h a t t h e primary i n p u t s o f each i n d u s t r y a r e p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e v a l u e o f t h e i n d u s t r y ' s output: - „ - z. .e. i] ]  h  n. . i]  h. . i s t h e i period,  ( i = 1, ..., p) ,. _ , * ( ] - 1, ...» m)  a  primary  i n p u t used by t h e j  . 35  i n d u s t r y i n t h e base *th  h. . i s r e l a t e d t o e_., t h e v a l u e o f t h e j  i n d u s t r y ' s output  i n t h e base D e r i o d , by t h e c o e f f i c i e n t z... ij Equation  H  =  (36) may be w r i t t e n i n m a t r i x n o t a t i o n a s :  Ze  37  H i s a p x m matrix o f primary outputs. primary  input c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  Z i s a p x m matrix o f  e i s an m x m d i a g o n a l m a t r i x o f t h e  value o f industry outputs. Primary  i n p u t s can be r e l a t e d t o f i n a l demand by s u b s t i t u t i n g  any one of t h e e q u a t i o n s  ( 2 4 ) , ( 2 7 ) , and (35) i n t o e q u a t i o n (37) and  d i a g o n a l i z i n g t h e v e c t o r o f f i n a l demand.  The d e s i r e d s u b s t i t u t i o n  depends on t h e assumption  t h a t one wishes t o make about  imports a r e t o be i n c l u d e d  i n t h e model.  how  As an example e q u a t i o n  (27) i s s u b s t i t u t e d i n t o e q u a t i o n ( 3 7 ) :  H =J/T - U(I - 0)V7 ~ U(f^O)^rTy) JI _  38  1  r  H i s a p x n matrix o f primary The  D.B.S. model, e x c l u d i n g  inputs.  e c o l o g i c commodities,  i s now  complete.  B e f o r e i n t r o d u c i n g t h e e c o l o g i c commodities t h e Rosenbluth model without e c o l o g i c commodities w i l l be developed.  E.4.THE ROSENBLUTH MODEL ( E x c l u d i n g E c o l o g i c To f a c i l i t a t e  comparison  Commodities)  w i t h t h e D.B.S. model t h e i n p u t  o f t h e Rosenbluth model w i l l be p r e s e n t e d f i r s t  side  since i t i s i d e n t i c a l  t o t h e i n p u t s i d e o f t h e D.B.S. model. Rosenbluth makes t h e assumption  that  i n o r d e r t o produce  d o l l a r o f o u t p u t , a t base p e r i o d p r i c e s , an i n d u s t r y c e r t a i n f i x e d v a l u e s o f commodity i n p u t s . below, e x p r e s s e s t h i s  5-J  "  —  1  a  requires  E q u a t i o n (17) r e p e a t e d  assumption:  ( j =1,  ... , m)  3 On t h e output s i d e o f t h e model Rosenbluth assumes t h a t a d o l l a r o f an i n d u s t r y ' s o u t p u t , a t base p e r i o d p r i c e s , i s made up o f c e r t a i n f i x e d v a l u e s o f commodity o u t p u t s , as i n d i c a t e d by  equation (39):  w..  =  31  d  j i — — e.  =  N  = 1,  (3  J  39  • • • » m)  3  w..  shows the output o f t h e i  "th  economic commodity by the j  th  i n d u s t r y p e r d o l l a r o f t o t a l output by t h e j * * i n d u s t r y . 1  The output c o e f f i c i e n t s  w^.  a r e p a r a l l e l t o the  c o e f f i c i e n t s v^_. o f e q u a t i o n ( 1 7 ) .  It i s therefore  t o d e f i n e n e t output c o e f f i c i e n t s , m^j, f o r each by s u b t r a c t i n g each i n p u t output m  or  input possible  industry  c o e f f i c i e n t from i t s c o r r e s p o n d i n g  coefficient: ij  =  m^  W  =  d  3 i  "  V  3»  i 3  (  i j  a  i  =  1  '  (j=l,  n  )  4  m)  0  41  e.  J  3  Rearranging e q u a t i o n (41) an e x p r e s s i o n o f the i * *  1  m.--e^ 3  In i d e n t i t y  1  _  -  coefficients. _ - a j  j  d-i  (x—1, •.., n) / • •, \ ( 3 = 1 , ..., m)  f  3 i  13  F i n a l demand can be brought by making the a p p r o p r i a t e m 3=1  .  1 + 2n  (4) the n e t output o f a commodity summed over a l l  i n d u s t r i e s i s the same as t h e f i n a l demand f o r t h a t  Z  output  commodity by the j * * i n d u s t r y i s o b t a i n e d i n terms  o f t h e n e t output  13  f o r the net  commodity.  into r e l a t i o n with industry  substitution  outputs  from i d e n t i t y ( 4 ) .  f m^e-:  -  Z 3=1  b.. 3  (i=l,  n)  43'  In m a t r i x n o t a t i o n t h i s becomes: Me  =  Bl'  44  M i s an n x m m a t r i x o f net output c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  m^..;  e i s an m x 1 v e c t o r o f the v a l u e o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s .  Bl is  an n x 1 v e c t o r o f f i n a l demand. I t i s important t o n o t e t h a t i f a v e c t o r o f f i n a l demand i s s p e c i f i e d , t h e Rosenbluth model, as r e p r e s e n t e d by e q u a t i o n (44) are  , i s a set of  n e q u a t i o n s i n m unknowns.  I f these e q u a t i o n s  independent, and n > m ( t h a t i s , t h e r e a r e more economic  commodities  than i n d u s t r i e s ) , t h e n o n l y m items o f the  f i n a l demands can be produced  exactly.  specified  These m items a r e  s u f f i c i e n t t o determine t h e o p e r a t i n g l e v e l s o f the  industries  and so the r e m a i n i n g items o f the f i n a l b i l l o f goods w i l l be produced  i n accordance w i t h t h e s e i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s .  T h i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h e Rosenbluth model s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i s t i n g u i s h e s i t from the D.B.S. model.  The D.B.S. model w i l l  produce p r e c i s e l y any s p e c i f i e d f i n a l demand. f i n a l demand can be produced  A l t h o u g h any  such  i n d i f f e r e n t ways w i t h t h e D.B.S. model  i f s u r p l u s p r o d u c t i o n o f some commodities t r u e t h a t t h e most e f f i c i e n t way  i s a l l o w e d , i t i s always  of producing a s p e c i f i e d  demand i s t h a t where t h e r e i s no s u r p l u s p r o d u c t i o n . Rosenbluth model the e x i s t e n c e o f more commodities  final  In t h e  than  industries  i n v i t e s some f o r m a l o p t i m i z i n g p r o c e d u r e t o s e l e c t t h e p a t t e r n  of  i n d u s t r i a l outputs which minimizes  s i g n i f i c a n t way.  the surplusses i n a  The a p p l i c a t i o n o f l i n e a r programming t o  t h e Rosenbluth model w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d when t h e model has been expanded t o i n c l u d e e c o l o g i c commodities.  THE  ROSENBLUTH MODEL WITH IMPORTS DETERMINED ENDOGENOUSLY To f a c i l i t a t e  the d i s t i n c t i o n imports.  d i r e c t comparison w i t h the D.B.S. model  i s made between c o m p e t i t i v e and n o n - c o m p e t i t i v e  As i n t h e D.B.S. model a d o l l a r ' s worth o f output o f  each i n d u s t r y i s assumed t o r e q u i r e a f i x e d v a l u e o f non-competing imports as i n p u t s .  The v a l u e o f non-competing imports  purchased  d i r e c t l y as f i n a l demand must be s p e c i f i e d i n t h e model t o g e t h e r w i t h a l l o t h e r e x p e n d i t u r e s by f i n a l demand. The  treatment  o f competing imports  t h a t i n t h e D.B.S. model.  i n t h e model p a r a l l e l s  I d e n t i t y (4) i s an e x p r e s s i o n f o r t h e  "t tl f i n a l demand, n e t o f i m p o r t s , o f the i the n e t output o f t h e i  commodity, by each o f t h e m i n d u s t r i e s :  m  f lb.. j=l  commodity i n terms o f  1  = 3  £ ( d . . ~ a..) j=l ^ 3  (i=l,  n)  H  1  By i n t r o d u c i n g i m p o r t s , y . , i n t o i d e n t i t y demand and supply f o r t h e i * *  1  (4) as a source o f  commodity a new i d e n t i t y i s o b t a i n e d  f m m Z b.. + y. + Z a.. = Z 3=1 3=1 j=l 1  3  1  The  1  3  same assumption  d.. + y. 3  1  (i=l,  n)  45  1  may be made as i n t h e D.B.S. model,  "t h t h a t t h e c o m p e t i t i v e imports o f t h e i  economic commodity  a r e e q u a l t o some p r o p o r t i o n y ^ o f t h e t o t a l supply o f t h e i * *  1  commodity: m y. = u. ( Z d.. + y . ) (i=l, n) i j=l E q u a t i o n (46) may be combined w i t h i d e n t i t y (45) t o o b t a i n 1  3  1  46  1  "th a r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e g r o s s f i n a l demand f o r t h e i commodity and t h e output o f t h e domestic m m Ed.. - (1 -y.) Z a . : j=l j=l 3  =  3  D e f i n i n g m*. . xj  =  industry :  r (1 - y . ) ( Z b,.+y.) j=l"  (i=l,  - (l-y.)a.. _J±  n)  47  3  48  1  e. 1  and s u b s t i t u t i n g (48) i n t o e q u a t i o n ( 4 7 ) : m  f  Em*..e. j=l 1  3  =  3  By r e - w r i t i n g  (1-y.) (Zb.. + y . ) j=l 1  (i=l,  n)  49  1 3  (49) i n m a t r i x n o t a t i o n an i n p u t - o u t p u t model i s  o b t a i n e d which r e l a t e s g r o s s f i n a l demand t o domestic i n d u s t r y output. M*e  =  ( 1 - y ) ( B l + y)  50  M* i s an m x m m a t r i x o f n e t output c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  m:,  £j> derived  from e q u a t i o n ( 4 8 ) * e i s an m x 1 v e c t o r o f t h e v a l u e o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s , BI i s an n x 1 v e c t o r o f f i n a l demand n e t o f imports ,  E.6  y i s an n x 1 v e c t o r o f imports.  THE ROSENBLUTH MODEL AND PRIMARY INPUTS The i n t r o d u c t i o n o f p r i m a r y i n p u t s i n t o t h e Rosenbluth model e x a c t l y p a r a l l e l s t h e approach used f o r t h e D.B.S. model. The assumption  t h a t t h e p r i m a r y i n p u t s o f each i n d u s t r y a r e  p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e v a l u e o f t h e i n d u s t r y ' s output i s expressed by e q u a t i o n (36) d e r i v e d e a r l i e r . H  =  Z§  37  H i s a p x m matrix o f primary i n p u t s , h^j-Z i s a p x m matrix o f primary input c o e f f i c i e n t s *  z  i j *  e  i s an m x m d i a g o n a l  m a t r i x o f t h e v a l u e o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s , e... U n l i k e t h e D.B.S. model i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e , i n t h e g e n e r a l c a s e , t o r e l a t e p r i m a r y i n p u t s d i r e c t l y t o commodity w i t h t h e R o s e n b l u t h model.  outputs  As e x p l a i n e d above some t y p e o f  o p t i m i z i n g r u l e i s c a l l e d f o r i n t h e Rosenbluth model so t h a t i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s can be determined  subject t o a constraint •  o f some s p e c i f i e d minimum l e v e l s o f commodity o u t p u t s .  However,  when t h e i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s have been determined,equation  (37) can  be used t o e s t i m a t e t h e r e q u i r e d l e v e l s o f p r i m a r y i n p u t s . .  In  a subsequent  s e c t i o n an example i s g i v e n t o show how  the  Rosenbluth model works under t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s .  F.  A PRELIMINARY COMPARISON OF THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS  D.B.S. AND  THE  ROSENBLUTH  A l t h o u g h e c o l o g i c commodities have y e t t o be i n t r o d u c e d i n t o e i t h e r model a u s e f u l comparison t h a t t h e purpose i n mind.  Concern  o f t h e s e models r e q u i r e s  f o r which t h e models a r e t o be used be borne l i e s p r i n c i p a l l y w i t h the i n t e r a c t i o n s o f  economic a c t i v i t y and the environment.  To make these  inter-  a c t i o n s e x p l i c i t the output o f wastes from i n d u s t r y t o t h e environment  and t h e i n p u t o f u n p r i c e d r e s o u r c e s from  environment  t o i n d u s t r y must be t i e d , i n some way,  p r o d u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s o f the v a r i o u s i n d u s t r i e s . t h i s reason that  the  t o the It i s for  i t i s u n s a t i s f a c t o r y t o assume, as i n t h e  D.B.S. model, t h a t t h e i n p u t requirements o f an i n d u s t r y a r e a f f e c t e d o n l y by t h e s i z e o f i t s output and not by the composition o f i t s o u t p u t .  Such an assumption  the i n t e r a c t i o n s between an i n d u s t r y and the  implies that environment  depend o n l y on the amount o f the i n d u s t r y ' s output and  not  on i t s commodity c o m p o s i t i o n . In Rosenbluth's  model, o f c o u r s e , t h e commodity c o m p o s i t i o n  o f an i n d u s t r y ' s output i s assumed t o be f i x e d . assumption  Given  this  i t makes sense t o c o n s i d e r an i n d u s t r y ' s output o f  marketable commodities  and waste p r o d u c t s as j o i n t p r o d u c t s .  Consequently, i t i s more m e a n i n g f u l t o r e l a t e  industrial  wastes t o i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s w i t h i n Rosenbluth's model than i n t h e D.B.S. model.  In t h e l a t t e r case i t might be  possible  t o make some allowance f o r t h e d i f f e r e n t commodity c o m p o s i t i o n o f an i n d u s t r y ' s output but t h i s would mean t h a t waste p r o d u c t s were b e i n g r e l a t e d t o commodity o u t p u t s r a t h e r than outputs.  industry  Any attempt t o do t h i s e m p i r i c a l l y would meet s e r i o u s  d a t a problems s i n c e most o f the a v a i l a b l e d a t a o n l y a l l o w s e s t i m a t e s t o be made o f i n d u s t r i a l waste p r o d u c t i o n a t t h e i n d u s t r y and n o t t h e commodity l e v e l .  1  1  The f i x e d  relationship  between i n d u s t r y output and commodity output t h a t i s assumed i n t h e Rosenbluth model makes i t unnecessary t o a t t r i b u t e wastes t o p a r t i c u l a r commodities  directly.  Once the i n d u s t r y  wastes a r e e s t i m a t e d the commodity wastes f o l l o w a u t o m a t i c a l l y . S i n c e b o t h models make t h e same assumption about i n p u t c o e f f i c i e n t s e i t h e r model may include  fixed  be adapted e q u a l l y w e l l t o  ' f r e e ' i n p u t s from t h e environment.  The p r o d u c t i o n  f u n c t i o n s i n b o t h models assume t h a t i n p u t s are combined f i x e d p r o p o r t i o n s and t h i s assumption i n c l u d e u n p r i c e d i n p u t s from t h e  in  i s e a s i l y extended t o  environment.  12 I t i s worth n o t i n g , as Rosenbluth does,  t h a t t h e assumption  o f f i x e d i n p u t c o e f f i c i e n t s matches v e r y p o o r l y w i t h the assumption  of  complete  flexibility  i n t h e commodity c o m p o s i t i o n o f o u t p u t .  In  cases where p r o d u c t s r e q u i r e v e r y d i f f e r e n t  i n p u t s , by  f i x i n g t h e i n p u t combinations t h e output combinations a r e f i x e d as w e l l , and t h e assumptions recognise t h i s *  F o r some commodities,  requirements a r e f a i r l y can be aggregated  i n t h e model s h o u l d  similar.  however, t h e i n p u t  Commodities o f t h i s t y p e  i n t o a composite  commodity y e t w i t h o u t  going t o the l e v e l o f aggregation that i n d u s t r y - b y - i n d u s t r y i n p u t - o u t p u t models u s e .  At t h e o t h e r extreme these a r e genuine  examples o f j o i n t p r o d u c t s , w h i c h i n c l u d e some waste p r o d u c t s , and i n t h e s e cases t h e f i x e d output c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y appropriate. Without  e x p l o r i n g t h e matter f u r t h e r , i t would appear  Rosenbluth's model has some c l e a r advantages  that  over t h e D.B.S.  model e s p e c i a l l y f o r i n t e g r a t i n g the economic system w i t h t h e environment.  The comparison  o f t h e models w i l l be c a r r i e d  f u r t h e r when t h e y a r e a p p l i e d t o t h e d a t a on e c o l o g i c t h a t has been c o l l e c t e d f o r t h i s  G.  commodities  study.  THE INTRODUCTION OF ECOLOGIC COMMODITES INTO THE MODELS Having s e t up t h e two models t o i n c l u d e a l l t h e r e l e v a n t economic d a t a t h e next s t e p i s t o show how each o f them can be adapted t o account f o r t h e r e l a t i o n s between t h e economic  systems and t h e environment.  G.I. THE D.B.S. MODEL AND ECOLOGIC COMMODITIES The s i m p l e s t  way o f i n t r o d u c i n g e c o l o g i c commodities  into  the D.B.S. model i s t o use t h e same procedure as was used f o r the p r i m a r y i n p u t s .  Thus i t i s assumed t h a t t h e e c o l o g i c  commodity i n p u t s and o u t p u t s o f an i n d u s t r y a r e p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e i n d u s t r y ' s marketed o u t p u t , v a l u e d a t base p e r i o d prices.  T h i s assumption i s e x p r e s s e d by e q u a t i o n s (51) arid  (52):  r^j  r..  =  6..e,  (j=l»  f.. -3i  =  Y--e. 3i 3  (i=n+l,  i s d e f i n e d as t h e i n p u t o f t h e i * " *  used by t h e j * *  1  1  m)  51  z)  52  e c o l o g i c commodity  industry.  "th 3~h p\_. i s t h e q u a n t i t y o f t h e i * e c o l o g i c commodity used by t h e j ' til  i n d u s t r y p e r u n i t o f marketed output o f t h e j f_.^ i s t h e output o f t h e i * " *  1  industry.  e c o l o g i c commodity produced by t h e j ^ *  industry. .th Y•^ i s t h e q u a n t i t y o f t h e i * e c o l o g i c commodity produced p e r u n i t "th o f marketed output o f the j  industry.  Note t h a t i n T a b l e 3 t h e e c o l o g i c commodities a r e c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s o u r c e from which t h e y came o r t h e s i n k t o which  1  they go.  I t f o l l o w s t h a t e c o l o g i c commodities n+1, ..., t come  from and go t o t h e l a n d ; from and go t o t h e a i r ; from and go t o t h e  e c o l o g i c commodities t+1,.,, , v come and e c o l o g i c commodities v+1, ..., z come  water.  Equations  (51) and (52) can be w r i t t e n  i n m a t r i x n o t a t i o n b e a r i n g i n mind t h a t each m a t r i x and v e c t o r i s p a r t i t i o n e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f t h e s o u r c e s and sinks of the ecologic R  =  S§  =  y £  t  F  commodities. 53  i  R i s a ( z - n + l ) x m  54  m a t r i x o f e c o l o g i c commodities used as  i n p u t s by i n d u s t r i e s . 3 i s a ( z - n + l ) x m  m a t r i x o f e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t  coefficients. £ i s an m x m d i a g o n a l m a t r i x o f i n d u s t r y marketed o u t p u t s , t  F  i s t h e t r a n s p o s e o f t h e m a t r i x F which i s an m x ( z - n + 1)  m a t r i x o f e c o l o g i c commodities produced  by i n d u s t r y ,  t  Y*  i s t h e t r a n s p o s e o f t h e m a t r i x Y which i s an m x ( z - n + 1)  m a t r i x o f e c o l o g i c commodity output  coefficients.  The e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s and outputs can be r e l a t e d t o f i n a l demand f o r economic commodities by s u b s t i t u t i n g any one o f t h e t h r e e i n p u t - o u t p u t models g i v e n by e q u a t i o n s ( 2 4 ) , (27) and (35) i n t o e q u a t i o n s (53.) and (54) r e s p e c t i v e l y , and  d i a g o n a l i z i n g the v e c t o r o f f i n a l demand. i n the  As p o i n t e d  out  d i s c u s s i o n o f p r i m a r y i n p u t s , the d e s i r e d s u b s t i t u t i o n  t o make depends on the  chosen assumption about how  commodity imports are t o be  included  i n the model.  economic The  simplest  model, which t r e a t s imports as exogeneously d e t e r m i n e d , i s used here as an example. final  E c o l o g i c commodity o u t p u t s a r e r e l a t e d t o  demand by s u b s t i t u t i n g e q u a t i o n ( 3 4 ) i n t o e q u a t i o n  i n the f o l l o w i n g  (54)  way: 55  t  Y"  has  a l r e a d y been d e f i n e d .  economic commodities. matrix F  An  _  —  i  /I-UV/  ^ UBl  i s an m x n m a t r i x o f  element f^_. o f the  shows the output o f the  i**  1  ( z - n  +  l ) x n  e c o l o g i c commodity  "til  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the final  j  economic commodity t o  i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o d e r i v e an e x p r e s s i o n  f o r the d i r e c t  i n d i r e c t e f f e c t s on e c o l o g i c commodities o f a d o l l a r o f  final for  o f the  demand. It  and  supply  demand f o r each economic commodity.  net  This i s achieved,  e c o l o g i c commodity o u t p u t s , by s e t t i n g each element i n the  final  demand v e c t o r BI e q u a l t o u n i t y t o g i v e the  results:  following  An e q u i v a l e n t e x p r e s s i o n r e l a t e s economic commodity i n p u t s to  one d o l l a r o f n e t f i n a l demand f o r each economic commodity:  R  =  S  {/I - UV/  An element r . . input o f the i * *  -  1  U }  57  o f the ( z - n + l ) x n 1  m a t r i x R shows t h e  e c o l o g i c commodity a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s u p p l y th  of  one d o l l a r o f t h e j  I f equation  economic commodity t o f i n a l demand.  (35) i n s t e a d o f e q u a t i o n (24) had been used t o  r e l a t e f i n a l demand t o e c o l o g i c o u t p u t s an i n t e r e s t i n g is  result  observed:  Equation  (58) r e c o g n i z e s t h a t e x p o r t s have a d i f f e r e n t  import  content from t h e o t h e r elements o f f i n a l demand and i n t e r m e d i a t e  13 demand.  A c c o r d i n g t o t h e D.B.S. n a t i o n a l accounts  t h e import  content o f e x p o r t s i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y l e s s than t h a t o f o t h e r elements o f demand. In terms o f e q u a t i o n (58) t h i s means t h a t th "th the i element o f t h e v e c t o r U i s g r e a t e r than t h e i element q  of  t h e v e c t o r u^.  Consequently,  when t h e r e l a t i o n between  demand and e c o l o g i c commodity o u t p u t s  (or inputs) i s being  considered i t i s necessary t o distinguish.between and o t h e r elements o f f i n a l demand. the e c o l o g i c outputs produced  final  Equation  exports  (58) shows t h a t  d o m e s t i c a l l y i n the process o f  supplying one d o l l a r of exports of each commodity i s greater than the ecologic outputs produced i n the process of supplying one d o l l a r of other types of f i n a l demand.  This  follows from the fact that i f u .>y . then (I-tf ) < (I-fl, ). n  01  l i  1  o  Ecologic commodity inputs and outputs may be used and produced d i r e c t l y by f i n a l demand as well as i n d i r e c t l y v i a the a c t i v i t i e s of industry.  For example, a f i n a l demand  of $X f o r motor gasoline implies ecologic commodity inputs and outputs when the gasoline i s used> over and above the ecologic commodity inputs and outputs required i n the manufacture of the gasoline.  The category of f i n a l demand  i s p a r t i c u l a r l y relevant here since, from a domestic point of view, no ecologic commodities are associated with the consumpt of exports.  Conversely, imports, which require no domestic  ecologic commodity inputs and outputs i n t h e i r manufacture, do imply ecologic commodity inputs and outputs when they are consumed.  (This, of course, applies only to the immediate  sources and sinks of the ecologic commodities.  Ecologic  commodity outputs may well t r a v e l across national borders a f t e r being  discharged).  From the d e f i n i t i o n of B°l given on page 77, t o t a l f i n a l demand equals B°l + x where B°l i s an n x 1 vector of the . domestic f i n a l demand f o r commodities and x i s an n x 1 vector  of exports.  It follows, from a domestic point of view,  that the only categories of f i n a l demand that require direct ecologic commodity inputs and produce d i r e c t ecologic commodity outputs are B°l.  In t h i s section i t i s assumed  that ecologic commodities used and produced d i r e c t l y by exports are to be ignored since i t i s intended that the model be a national model o f the use of 'free' goods and the production  of wastes.  However, exports could be treated d i f f e r e n t l y i f required.  It  i s also assumed that one d o l l a r ' s worth of domestic f i n a l demand (that i s , gross f i n a l demand minus exports), f o r the t h  i  economic commodity uses and produces the same quantities of  ecologic commodities i r r e s p e c t i v e of which category of domestic f i n a l demand spends the d o l l a r . Referring again to Table 3 i t i s seen that G i s an n x (z-n+1) matrix of ecologic commodity outputs produced d i r e c t l y by f i n a l th demand and the element g_.^ shows the output of the i ' ecologic commodity discharged  as a r e s u l t of the f i n a l demand f o r the j  economic commodity.  S i s a ( z - n + l ) x n  matrix of ecologic  commodity inputs used d i r e c t l y by f i n a l demand. shows the input of the i  The element s..  ecologic commodity used i n conjunction til  with the f i n a l demand f o r the j  economic commodity.  Ecologic  commodity input and output c o e f f i c i e n t s may be defined: n.". i s the quantity of the i * *  1  ecologic commodity used  together  w i t h one  u n i t o f domestic f i n a l demand f o r the j  economic  commodity. th o.^  i s the q u a n t i t y o f the  one  u n i t o f domestic f i n a l demand f o r the j  These c o e f f i c i e n t s may  be  i  * e c o l o g i c commodity produced  estimated  E c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s and directly  economic commodity.  from base p e r i o d  =  6  =.  data.  outputs can nov; be r e l a t e d  t o f i n a l demand by the f o l l o w i n g m a t r i x  S  by  equations:  nB !  59  5  rfB°l  60  B 1 i s an n x n d i a g o n a l i s e d m a t r i x  o f f i n a l demand, e x c l u s i v e  of exports,  matrix  n  i s a ( z - n + l ) x n  input c o e f f i c i e n t s , matrix s..  a  1  i s the t r a n s p o s e  o f e c o l o g i c commodity  of a , a n , x n  o f e c o l o g i c commodity output c o e f f i c i e n t s .  o f the  the i  ( z - n + l ) x n  matrix  (z - n +  An  S shows the d i r e c t  1)  element input  of  e c o l o g i c commodity used i n the consumption o f the j  economic commodity by a l l c a t e g o r i e s o f f i n a l demand exports.  An element g^.. o f the  the d i r e c t output o f the  i**  1  ( z - n + l ) x n  matrix  excluding G shows  e c o l o g i c commodity produced  by  the consumption o f the j * * economic commodity by a l l c a t e g o r i e s 1  o f f i n a l demand e x c l u d i n g The m a t r i c e s for  exports.  S and G are a p p r o p r i a t e l y p a r t i t i o n e d t o  t h e d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s and  allow  s i n k s o f the e c o l o g i c commodities.  Expressions for the total domestic ecologic inputs and outputs associated with the final demand for each ecologic commodity can be derived by combining the equations relating directly to final demand with those relating to industry outputs. for  Thus, equation ( 5 8 ) and an equivalent equation  ecologic commodity inputs may be added to equations ( 5 9 )  and ( 6 0 ) to give the desired expression for total ecologic inputs, equation ( 6 1 ) and total ecologic outputs, equation ( 6 2 ) .  R + S = & / I - U ( I - H )V/  r F  + G  U/(I- 0 )B°1 +(I-On)x/>+ r,B 1  o-  r  -  o  A-u(i-fl o )vy " 1 u/(i-a )B°i  =  O  o-  -  o  61  i- ( + u-a7w  ! O~*B^I +  62  i - j  The matrices of equations ( 6 1 ) and ( 6 2 ) may be regarded as partititions of larger matrices: c  A  = K < /I-U(I-fl )V/ "-Hj/U-O ) B ° 1 +(I-yn)x/[+ L B ° 1 — o— — o 1 — !  R +S  where A is defined as K is defined as  „  ,_, , a 2 ( z - n + 1 ) x n matrix.  — , | , a 2 (z - n + 1 ) x n matrix.  ' D_"1 L i s defined as ! Ua 2 (z - n + 1 ) x n matrix. The L °" J D.B.S. model upon which equation ( 6 3 ) is based, relates total final demand  B 1 + x to domestic industry outputs e with f u l l  63  allowance for imports. Equation (63) can be used therefore to relate any vector of gross final demand to the ecologic commodities used and produced in the production and consumption  of economic commodities supplied to final demand.  If  the elements of the final demand vector are set equal to unity, and i f i t is assumed that this is a l l domestic final demand, so that the elements of B ° l equal unity and the elements of x equal zero, then the estimated ecologic commodities of matrix A are those associated with the supply of one dollar of each economic commodity to domestic final demand. Insofar as i t is possible to establish a social weighting of the ecological commodity inputs and outputs then u may be defined as a 1 x /2(z - n + ljj  vector of weights which  indicate the social evaluation of one unit of each ecologic commodity according to whether i t is used as an input or produced as an output and also according to the source or sink of the ecologic commodity. o> are discussed in Chapter V).  (Procedures for determining It follows that uA gives the  social evaluation of the ecologic commodity inputs and outputs associated with one dollar of final demand for each commodity. As explained in Chapter V the weights in vector w can be given two different meanings.  They can be taken as the relative  evaluation of each ecologic commodity so that the absolute value  of each weight i s meaningless.  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , they can be  given as estimates of the d o l l a r values of the ecologic commodities i n which case the absolute values are d i r e c t l y comparable with other economic magnitudes.  Of course, i f  the weights are taken, in the f i r s t instance, to have meaning only in r e l a t i o n to each other, i t i s only necessary  to  a t t r i b u t e a d o l l a r value to one weight i n order to give d o l l a r values to a l l weights. Ecologic commodities have now been introduced into the D.B.S. model.  It i s c l e a r , however, that insofar as the D.B.S.  14 accounts  are f o r the national economy the data about ecologic  commodities, as the model stands at present, also applies to the nation as a whole. This s i t u a t i o n can be s i g n i f i c a n t l y improved upon by a regional disaggregation of the industries and f i n a l demand so that the direct and indirect input and output of ecologic commodities attributable to d i f f e r e n t patterns of f i n a l demand can be estimated f o r each region.  Neglecting for the moment ecologic  commodities used and produced d i r e c t l y by f i n a l demand i t i s assumed that i n d u s t r i a l technology industry.  i s uniform throughout each  Thus, the t e x t i l e industry becomes, i n e f f e c t , ten  t e x t i l e industries sharing a common technology.  Similarly, the  number of ecologic inputs and outputs of the t e x t i l e industy  are increased tenfold.  Technically, industrial disaggregation  by region may be accomplished as follows: n . . = the proportion of the j^^1 industry output, measured at 11  th  base period prices, located in the i region. th 3, . = the amount of the k ecologic commodity used as an kj input in the j * * 1 industry per unit of the j * * 1 industry's marketed output. y jk  the amount of the k**1 ecologic commodity produced as an th output in the j  1  ttl industry per unit of the j  industry's  marketed output.  ttl e_. = the marketed output of the j  industry measured at base  period prices. It follows that ^ £ j e j i - s t  n  e  quantity of the j * * 1 industry  th output located in the i * region.  On the assumption that each  industry's technology is identical irrespective of location, equations for the input and output of ecologic commodities may be derived. The amount of the k**1 ecologic commodity used as an input t tl th in the j  industry, locatad in the i " region is given by:  8. . n . .e. k3 i l 1  An equivalent expression indicates the amount of the k th ecologic commodity produced as an output by the j th located in the i  region:  th  b4  industry,  y.,II..e. ]k  65  13 3  By summing e x p r e s s i o n s (64) and (65) over a l l i n d u s t r i e s , t h e t o t a l i n d u s t r i a l i n p u t (9. .) and output  ($.,.) o f the k  Kl  t  n  lK  th e c o l o g i c commodity w i t h i n t h e i region i s derived: 0L .  =  m I 3 , .11..e.  Ki  k ] 13 3  <J>.. ik  =  66  m E y n . .e. ' 3 k 13  c  3  „ 6  7  In m a t r i x n o t a t i o n e q u a t i o n s (66) and (67) become 0  = 8£Jl'  68  $ " =Y ell  69  * i s a ( z - n + 1) x r m a t r i x , whose elements  0, ., show t h e t o t a l ki  i n d u s t r i a l i n p u t o f t h e k * * e c o l o g i c commodity i n t h e i * * 1  1  region.  t (There a r e r regi.ons).  <f> i s t h e t r a n s p o s e o f t h e  m a t r i x <j>, whose elements,  r x ( z - n + l )  <J>^ show t h e t o t a l i n d u s t r y output o f  t h e k * * e c o l o g i c commodity i n t h e i * * 1  1  region.  E q u a t i o n s (68) and  (69) a r e e q u a l t o e q u a t i o n s (53) and (54) p o s t - m u l t i p l i e d by t h e t r a n s p o s e o f t h e m a t r i x IT. the p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e j  IT i s a m a t r i x o f c o e f f i c i e n t s  showing  i n d u s t r y o u t p u t , measured a t base  period p r i c e s , located i n the i  region.  The o r d e r o f t h e  m a t r i x i s r x m where r i s t h e number o f r e g i o n s , m t h e number o f  industries. The r e l a t i o n s  shown i n equations (68) and (69) can  be combined with any one of the three D.3.S. input-output models given by equations (24), (27) and (35) by making the appropriate substitution f o r the diagonal matrix e. The disaggregation of domestic f i n a l demand by region i s accomplished i n the same way as that f o r i n d u s t r i e s : X.. 13  th - the proportion of the j category of f i n a l demand, measured at base period p r i c e s , located . .th in the I region; th  'kj  = the amount of the )c  ecologic commodity used  together with one unit of domestic f i n a l demand f o r the j * * economic commodity; th 1  a_.k  = the amount of the k  ecologic commodity  produced by one unit of domestic f i n a l demand for the j * * economic commodity; = the t o t a l d i r e c t input to domestic f i n a l 1  3, . ki  th demand of the k *v  -  t  h  the I T ^  ecologic commodity within  region;  = the t o t a l d i r e c t output from f i n a l demand of the k** ecologic commodity within the i * * 1  1  region. An exactly p a r a l l e l argument as that used above f o r industry  gives the f o l l o w i n g equations: 9 = uB°lX«  x  r  70  = a 'B°l\'  71  J  E q u a t i o n s (70) and (71) r e l a t e t h e e c o l o g i c commodity  inputs  and o u t p u t s a t t r i b u t a b l e d i r e c t l y t o domestic f i n a l demand w i t h t h e r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f i n a l demand. m a t r i x o f d i r e c t e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s .  9 i s an f x r  X' i s t h e t r a n s p o s e  o f t h e m a t r i x X, which i s an r x f m a t r i x o f d i r e c t e c o l o g i c o commodity o u t p u t s .  N  B 1 i s an n x n d i a g o n a l i s e d m a t r i x o f f i n a l  demand, e x c l u s i v e o f e x p o r t s .  Equations (70) and (71) a r e e q u a l  t o e q u a t i o n s (59) and (60) p o s t - m u l t i p l i e d by t h e t r a n s p o s e o f t h e r x n m a t r i x X.  X i s a matrix of c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  showing t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e j  X..,  c a t e g o r y o f f i n a l demand, "til  measured a t base p e r i o d p r i c e s , l o c a t e d i n t h e i  region.  The t o t a l r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s and o u t p u t s may be d e r i v e d by summing e q u a t i o n s (68) and  (70);  and (69) and (71) r e s p e c t i v e l y remembering t h a t  the i n d u s t r y and f i n a l demand v e c t o r s a r e n o t t o be d i a g o n a l i s e d . At t h i s stage t h e model i s n o t f a r from b e i n g a complete e c o n o m i c - e c o l o g i c model.  The b a s i c D.B.S. model has been extended  t o i n c l u d e e c o l o g i c commodities c l a s s i f i e d by the s o u r c e s and s i n k s ( a c h i e v e d by s u i t a b l e p a r t i t i o n i n g o f t h e F, G, R and S  matrices) and the model also allows for the regional distribution of ecologic commodity inputs and outputs to be examined.  Nevertheless, the model remains very distinct  from Isard's or Daly's in that no subsystem of the environment is included^ In the discussion of these other models, especially Isard's, i t was argued that the data requirements of the ecologic subsystems were so great that i t is expedient to include only flows between the economic-ecologic systems and not flows within the ecologic system i t s e l f .  However, i t is important  for the model to allow for the relations bet**een the ecologic outputs of industry and the subsequent ecologic inputs from the environment.  It is possible to extend the present adaptation  of the D.B.S. model so that these relations are recognised without introducing the entire ecologic system. As before, i t is convenient to examine ecologic commodities used and produced by industries separately from those used and produced directly by final demand.  Turning f i r s t to the  ecologic commodity outputs of industry consider the fact that the 3 sectors - land, air and water, in their capacity as sinks, may each be disaggregated according to some measure of treatment efficiency.  Any number of treatment classes may be defined for  each environmental sector.  A treatment class describes the  environmental sector's capacity to assimilate a particular  t y p e o f waste. be w r i t t e n ,  The e f f e c t i v e n e s s  o f each treatment c l a s s may  i n terms o f t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f an e c o l o g i c  commodity some time a f t e r i t has been i n t r o d u c e d i n t o a s i n k o f a c e r t a i n treatment c l a s s .  (This  includes  o f substances t h a t r e s u l t from t h e r e a c t i o n ecologic  commodity w i t h o t h e r m a t e r i a l  quantities of ecologic  of the p a r t i c u l a r  i n the s i n k ) .  I f the  commodities i n t r o d u c e d i n t o each t r e a t -  ment c l a s s i s known f o r a g i v e n r e g i o n disposal of the ecologic p..  the concentration  then the ' e f f e c t i v e '  commodity may be c a l c u l a t e d  = c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f 1 u n i t o f t h e k** e c o l o g i c 1  as f o l l o w s :  commodity  r e m a i n i n g a f t e r d i s p e r s a l by 1 u n i t o f a s i n k o f t h e . i**  1  treatment c l a s s d u r i n g a u n i t o f time. (An example  may c l a r i f y t h i s r a t h e r  c o m p l i c a t e d d e f i n i t i o n . . - Suppose  one pound o f carbon monoxide (CO) i s r e l e a s e d cubic  f e e t o f a i r o f a g i v e n treatment c l a s s .  i n t o 10 If,  .  an hour l a t e r , 5 pound o f carbon monoxide remains i n t h e  'ik  10 c u b i c  f e e t o f a i r than P . = O.OSlbs CO/cubic f t . a i r ) .  quantity  of the k  k3  t h  e c o l o g i c commodity produced by a u n i t  l e v e l of a c t i v i t y o f the i * " * v..  13  = proportion  1  industry  "til  o f t o t a l output o f t h e i  sink o f the j * *  1  p e r u n i t o f time. industry  where a  treatment c l a s s p r e v a i l s .  "th The t o t a l amount o f t h e k " e c o l o g i c  commodity generated  is given by  m £ e.y., , 1 Xk 1=1  which has the simple matrix form ofy' e"  where e" is an m x m diagonal matrix and y matrix.  1  is a(z - n + l)x m  The concentration of the k**1 ecologic commodity remaining  one unit of time after i t has been discharged is equal to £  . . 13  e.Y.,v..p, • • i'ik  In matrix notation this is the diagonal  X3 k3 K  J  J  element of y*evp"'. where v is a matrix whose order is m by the number of treatment classes and p' is the transpose of the *p matrix whose order is z - n + 1 by the number of treatment classes. The total amount of undispersed ecologic commodity from each industry is given by  E e.y.,v..p j  matrix form.  . which has no really simple  x *• I K 13  It can however be written as y'e'^v' (72) where  * indicates that the i j t n element of the matrix y e is to be multiplied by the i j * * 1 element of the matrix pv' and transcribed into a new matrix. As 5n any input-output model the coefficients of the model are assumed stable over time unless there is reason to believe otherwise. may s t i l l be  Even then, with limited information, the best assumption that the coefficients are unchanged until i t can  be demonstrated that they have changed in a certain way.  In this  section a new type of coefficient has been introduced, namely, the  treatment c o e f f i c i e n t s p^...  It i s appropriate, therefore, to  give some consideration to the s t a b i l i t y of these c o e f f i c i e n t s over time. Unfortunately, very l i t t l e i s known about the environment's a b i l i t y to assimilate waste so that what i s said here i s hardly more than speculation.  There can be l i t t l e doubt, however, that  there i s a r e l a t i o n between the waste introduced into the environment i n one time period and the environment's assimilative capacity i n subsequent periods.  For example, when sewage i s  discharged into a water course oxygen from the water i s used in the decomposition of the sewage.  Although the marine l i f e  in the water course generates oxygen i t i s not uncommon f o r the biochemical oxygen demand of the sewage to exceed the production of oxygen by the marine l i f e .  I f t h i s situation i s sustained  over time the amount of oxygen i n the water course declines and the  a b i l i t y of the water to break down the sewage deteriorates.  In terms of the model the water course would have to be r e c l a s s i f i e d in a d i f f e r e n t treatment class which would have the effect of r a i s i n g the  l e v e l of untreated ecologic outputs f o r a given l e v e l of  i n d u s t r i a l operations. In the above example the treatment class of the water course had to be changed because of the net withdrawal of oxygen from the  water.  The interactions within the water course are ecological  processes which do not enter the model explicitly.  The  withdrawal of oxygen may be thought of as an indirect result of the economic system5 the direct relations being that between people and sewage, and the sewage and the^biochemical oxygen demand.  Such indirect relations are5without doubt  important but there are direct relations between the economic system and the use of ecologic commodities which must also be considered.  These relations take the form of ecologic  inputs to the economic system.  Oxygen, for example, is a  v i t a l ingredient in a l l combustion processes.  It is also  necessary for turning poisonous carbon monoxide into the 16  relatively harmless carbon dioxide.  This means that the  treatment class of an air shed depends, in part, on the direct use of the air by the economic system.  (The economic processes  in the United States are said to use annually 40% more oxygen than the vegetation in the Unites States produces)'  ,  Two principal categories of variables that determine the treatement efficiency of an environmental sector or sink at a point in time have been outlined:  waste previously discharged  and ecologic commodity inputs to production and consumption taken directly from the environment. though rather d i f f i c u l t , to  It would be quite p o s s i b l e »  extend the static model that was  presented earlier to allow for these dynamic considerations.  One  way  o f d o i n g t h i s would be t o make t h e treatment  coefficients  f u n c t i o n s o f the p a s t e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s and Owing t o the p r e s e n t l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e o f t h e s e f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s any t o be c a s t i n v e r y g e n e r a l terras.  outputs. characteristics  such dynamic model would have Furthermore,  i t is unlikely  t h a t the simple l i n e a r i . t y o f the model c o u l d be The r e c e n t work o f e c o l o g i s t s i n the study o f  maintained.  synergisms,  which r o u g h l y means the i n t e r a c t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t e c o l o g i c commodities w i t h each o t h e r and w i t h the environment, does not encourage c o n f i d e n c e i n the assumption  of l i n e a r i t y .  F o r example,  t h e speed o f a c h e m i c a l r e a c t i o n i n c r e a s e s e x p o n e n t i a l l y w i t h temperature;  a f a c t which i s d i r e c t l y r e l e v a n t t o  'thermal  pollution'. I t would seem t h e n , t h a t t h e s t a t i c model, which a l r e a d y c a l l s f o r more d a t a than i s c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e , i s a t b e s t , the s k e l e t o n o f a complete model.  D e s p i t e the obvious  i n the s t a t i c model i t s shortcomings I t may  deficiencies  are not n e c e s s a r i l y s e r i o u s .  indeed be t r u e t h a t the treatment  c o e f f i c i e n t s change too  q u i c k l y f o r t h e s t a t i c model t o make any r e a l sense.  But i t may  a l s o be t r u e t h a t t h e s e c o e f f i c i e n t s are r e l a t i v e l y as s t a b l e the p r o d u c t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s o f the economic system.  as  F o r both  t y p e s o f c o e f f i c i e n t s a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e i r s t a b i l i t y over would d o u b t l e s s l y improve t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t models which may  be  time put  t o work w i t h the d a t a a v a i l a b l e The  today.  f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n o f treatment  c l a s s e s can be  tied  i n q u i t e e a s i l y w i t h the e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n o f the r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s and o u t p u t s .  It i s  not p o s s i b l e t o d e f i n e r e g i o n s i n terms o f the d i f f e r e n t  treatment  c l a s s e s s i n c e t h e r e i s no r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e t h a t a body o f a i r t h a t i s u n i f o r m l y o f one  treatment  c l a s s l i e s above a p i e c e o f  l a n d t h a t i s a l s o o f o n l y one treatment  class.  What i s n e c e s s a r y  i s t h a t the e n v i r o n m e n t a l s e c t o r s o r s i n k s be c l a s s i f i e d by r e g i o n and broken down i n t o t y p e s o f treatment  class.  Thus, i f e x p r e s s i o n  (72) were t o a p p l y t o one r e g i o n amongst many then the m a t r i x Y e*pv' would be based on the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n d u s t r i e s x  treatment  by  c l a s s w i t h i n the p a r t i c u l a r r e g i o n .  These l a s t few pages have d e a l t p r i m a r i l y w i t h e c o l o g i c commodity o u t p u t s and the v a r i o u s ways d i f f e r e n t a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e s e outputs can be brought  i n t o the i n p u t - o u t p u t models.  I t i s now  n e c e s s a r y t o take a c l o s e r l o o k a t the e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s t o the economic system and  i n so d o i n g a t t h e temporal r e l a t i o n •  between e c o l o g i c commodity o u t p u t s and i n p u t s w i l l be  further  examined. Equation ( 5 3 ) ,  r e p e a t e d h e r e , e x p r e s s e s the e c o l o g i c i n p u t  requirements o f the i n d u s t r i a l p r o c e s s e s :  R  53  =  Examples of the ecologic commodities include water as an ingredient i n chemical processes or just f o r cooling, and oxygen f o r the combustion o f mineral f u e l s .  C l e a r l y , the  desired quality of an ecologic input depends c r u c i a l l y on the purpose f o r which i t i s used.  I t i s generally true  that, f o r given t e c h n i c a l processes, the ecologic inputs must be of some minimum standard of quality as measured by the type and quantity of impurities contained  i n the input.  If an input i s below the s p e c i f i e d quality then before i t i s used i t must be treated.  Such treatment, i f c a r r i e d out  by the firm using the ecologic input, i s best regarded as part of the production process o f that firm.  In f a c t many  uses o f ecologic inputs require some associated c a p i t a l equipment even i f i t i s only i n the form o f giant fans designed t o suck a i r into b l a s t furnaces. The important point i s that the type and amount of c a p i t a l equipment required to channel the ecologic commodity from the environment and t o process i t i f i t s 'natural' q u a l i t y i s too low depends i n part on the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the ecologic outputs of industry.  Indeed, perhaps the most common problem  in environmental q u a l i t y to be analysed by economists i s that of two f a c t o r i e s that use water from the same r i v e r .  One factory  i s s i t u a t e d upstream from the o t h e r and,  i n the course  of i t s  i n d u s t r i a l o p e r a t i o n s , i t adds e f f l u e n t t o the r i v e r making i t necessary takes  f o r the downstream f a c t o r y t o p r o c e s s  i n f o r i t s own  commodity o u t p u t s  and  purposes.  t h e water i t  The r e l a t i o n between e c o l o g i c  i n p u t s so c l e a r l y seen i n t h i s  simple  example i s even more t r u e f o r i n d u s t r i e s taken i n the l a r g e . In f a c t , when the view i s broadened so as t o i n c l u d e a l l economic a c t i v i t i e s the temporal r e l a t i o n s are not commodity output  s o l e l y from e c o l o g i c  t o e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t but go i n the  r e v e r s e d i r e c t i o n as w e l l .  In an e a r l i e r example i t was  t h a t i n d u s t r i a l u t i l i z a t i o n o f oxygen can reduce t h e  shown  environment's  c a p a c i t y t o o x i d i z e such n o x i o u s gasses as carbon monoxide nitrogen oxide. i n p u t s and  and  Thus, a t a s o c i a l l e v e l , the e c o l o g i c commodity  outputs  o f i n d u s t r y i n one  e c o l o g i c commodity o u t p u t s Concentrating  and  time p e r i o d a f f e c t  the  i n p u t s i n subsequent time p e r i o d s .  once a g a i n on e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s ,  one  q u e s t i o n t h a t a r i s e s r e l a t e s t o the s t a b i l i t y o f t h e q u a l i t y of  ' n a t u r a l ' e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s over t i m e .  t h a t these  If i t i s true  change f a i r l y r a p i d l y o v e r t i m e , r e q u i r i n g adjustments  t o the production processes  o f a s i g n i f i c a n t number o f i n d u s t r i e s ,  then the assumed r i g i d i t y o f the p r o d u c t i o n input-output  model i s s u s p e c t .  Of c o u r s e ,  functions i n the i f the manner i n  which the p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s change t o accomodate d i f f e r e n t q u a l i t i e s o f e c o l o g i c i n p u t s i s known then t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n  can  be duly incorporated into the input-output  model.  But t h i s  information i s not usually a v a i l a b l e , and furthermore, i t has yet to be established that t h i s aspect of the product5.on functions i s any more susceptible to change than any other part of the technology employed.  It would c e r t a i n l y be a  useful exercise t o compare the rate of change i n the technology of t r e a t i n g ecologic inputs with that of the r e s t of the production process.  However, u n t i l such a study has been  completed there i s no reason f o r thinking that these rates differ significantly. The extension of the D.B.S. input-output  model t o include  ecologic commodity inputs and outputs i s now complete.  It i s  possible to extend the Rosenbluth model i n a similar way, by merely adding extra commodity inputs and outputs into each production process.  The r e s u l t would be p a r a l l e l t o the  e a r l i e r case where i t was shown that, generally, only the l e v e l s of some commodity outputs, which would now include ecologic commodities, can be s p e c i f i e d and produced exactly.  In the  next section the p o s s i b i l i t y of applying l i n e a r programming to the Rosenbluth model w i l l be discussed i n the context of the ecologic commodity inputs and outputs of the economic system.  G.2.  THE ROSENBLUTH MODEL, ECOLOGIC COMMODITIES AND LINEAR PROGRAMMING The purpose of t h i s section i s to examine how a formal  '  optimization technique, i n p a r t i c u l a r l i n e a r programming, can be used to determine the desirable l e v e l of industry a c t i v i t i e s in the Rosenbluth model.  Rosenbluth suggests the following  l i n e a r program as an example of the way i n which h i s model may be used.  Minimum l e v e l of economic commodities to be supplied  to f i n a l demand are s p e c i f i e d . the program.  These form the constraints i n  A suitable objective function, which i s t o be  minimized subject to these constraints, i s a vector of industry l e v e l s of a c t i v i t y multiplied by a vector of cost per unit l e v e l of a c t i v i t y , f o r example, value added.  The general form  of such a l i n e a r programming model i s as follows: Model 1 Minimise  Ve  Subject to:  Me >_ BI e ^ 0  (i) (ii)  Y i s a 1 x m row vector of value added per unit l e v e l of a c t i v i t y associated with each industry.  The constraints  s i g n i f i e d by ( i ) are the simplest form of the Rosenbluth model developed e a r l i e r and designated (ii)  as equation ( 4 4 ) .  The constraint  i s the conventional requirement that a l l industry outputs  must be  non-negative.  There are two be  introduced  ways i n which the e c o l o g i c commodities  i n t o the b a s i c l i n e a r programming model.  the model stands at p r e s e n t o f economic c o s t . been t h a t t h e r e  Perhaps the main theme o f t h i s c h a p t e r  then they i n the  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , an o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n can  be  e n t i r e l y i n terms o f the e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s and of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y . evaluate  objective formulated outputs  All  i s a statement o f the r e l a t i v e d i s u t i l i t y  each e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t and  output.  These two  c o s t s o f t h i s a c t i v i t y w i l l now  of  procedures  f o r o p t i m i z i n g economic a c t i v i t y t a k i n g account o f the  first  may  In t h i s case i t i s unnecessary t o  the e c o l o g i c commodities i n terms o f d o l l a r s .  that i s required  Th°  has  are a l s o e c o l o g i c c o s t s t o economic a c t i v i t y .  added t o t h e economic c o s t s t h a t a r e a l r e a d y  function.  As  the o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n i s a f u n c t i o n  I f t h e s e c o s t s are measured i n d o l l a r v a l u e s be  can  ecologic  be examined i n more d e t a i l .  s t e p i s t o r e l a t e the e c o l o g i c commodities t o  i n d u s t r y marketed o u t p u t s . f o r the D.B.S. model serve  E q u a t i o n s (53) and  (54)  developed  e q u a l l y w e l l i n the Rosenbluth model  p r o v i d i n g the assumption i s r e t a i n e d t h a t a d o l l a r ' s worth o f o u t p u t , at base p e r i o d p r i c e s , from the j and  uses f i x e d amounts o f the  i  th  t h  ecologic  i n d u s t r y , produces commodity.  E q u a t i o n s (53) and industry outputs. a statement  (54)  use a d i a g o n a l m a t r i x o f  I t i s n o t n e c e s s a r y , a t t h i s s t a g e , t o have  o f the e c o l o g i c commodities used an produced  each i n d u s t r y .  by  The o v e r a l l d a t a i s a l l t h a t i s r e q u i r e d and  so a v e c t o r o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t s i s used i n p l a c e o f the d i a g o n a l m a t r i c e s , as i n e q u a t i o n s (73) and  r  f  =  1  (74):  Be  73  = Y e  74  5  I t i s c o n v e n i e n t t o r e g a r d t h e s e m a t r i c e s as p a r t i t i o n s o f a l a r g e r matrix: a where  = a  Ae  75  = j f'  and A =  " B Y  1  a i s a 2 ( z ~ n + l ) x l  vector of ecologic  commodities.  A i s a 2 ( z - n + l ) x m  matrix of c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  e i s an m x 1 v e c t o r o f i n d u s t r y marketed o u t p u t s . I t i s now  p o s s i b l e t o a s s i g n v a l u e s t o the elements  of the  a v e c t o r r e f l e c t i n g an e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e e c o l o g i c i n p u t s and outputs.  (Note t h a t the same e c o l o g i c commodity can e n t e r  the a v e c t o r as both an i n p u t and o u t p u t .  Rather than  aggregate  a l l such commodities t o get a net output f i g u r e , t h i s d i s a g g r e g a t i o n p e r m i t s d i f f e r e n t w e i g h t i n g s t o be g i v e n t o an  ecologic  commodity depending on whether i t i s used or produced by an I f a i s a 1 x /2(z - n + 1)/ vector of values to  industry).  be applied t o the ecologic commodities then the scalar wa gives the s o c i a l evaluation of the vector a of ecologic commodities. Using equation (75) i t follows that the ecologic cost of the industry output vector e i s given by: A  =  o>a  76  hence A = «/Ve I t i s now possible to e s t a b l i s h a l i n e a r programming model which minimizes the ecologic costs of industry outputs subject t o constraints on the supply of economic commodities to f i n a l demand.  Such a program i s given by model I I .  Model I I Minimise  u  Ae  Subject to Me >^ B l e 1  0  (i) (ii)  Note that the ecologic costs associated with the f i n a l demand vector are omitted from the l i n e a r programming model.  These  costs should be taken into account when the f i n a l demand 17 vector i s s p e c i f i e d i n the constraints s i g n i f i e d by ( i ) . If the weights i n the &f vector are i n d o l l a r values than the 1 x m vector o>A may be added to the vector V which was defined  e a r l i e r t o be a v e c t o r o f weights e q u a l t o t h e economic c o s t s t o be a p p l i e d t o t h e i n d u s t r y output v e c t o r e. t h a t ojA  + ¥ isa  It follows  l x m v e c t o r whose elements a r e a combined  e c o n o m i c - e c o l o g i c s e t o f weights which can be used i n a t h i r d l i n e a r programming model. Model I I I  Minimize (u>A  + V)e  S u b j e c t t o Me >_ BI e  (i)  >_ 0  (ii)  In each o f t h e t h r e e l i n e a r programming models s p e c i f i e d above the c o n s t r a i n t s s i g n i f i e d by ( i ) have been based upon t h e s i m p l e s t v e r s i o n o f t h e R o s e n b l u t h model e q u a t i o n ( 4 4 ) .  F o r some purposes  t h e more c o m p l i c a t e d model o f e q u a t i o n (50) which determines  imports  endogenously, may be r e q u i r e d , i n which case e q u a t i o n (50) can be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r equation (44).  Model I I u s i n g e q u a t i o n (50)  i n p l a c e o f e q u a t i o n (44) a s c o n s t r a i n t Minimize  ( i ) has t h e form  i«Ae  S u b j e c t t o H*e e i  >. ( I -fl) (BI + y ) 0  (i) (ii)  Although t h e r e a r e an u n l i m i t e d number o f l i n e a r programming models t h a t can be b u i l t t a k i n g account o f t h e e c o l o g i c c o s t s o f economic a c t i v i t y o n l y one more w i l l be p r e s e n t e d here.  The d i s t i n g u i s h i n g  f e a t u r e o f the model i s t h a t i t r e c o g n i s e s t h e r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the p r o d u c t i o n and use o f e c o l o g i c commodities and  allows  a d i f f e r e n t s o c i a l e v a l u a t i o n o f these commodities a c c o r d i n g t o where t h e y are used o r produced. (68) and  The m a t r i c e s o f e q u a t i o n s  ( 6 4 ) , which show t h e r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f  e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t s and o u t p u t s f o r any v e c t o r o f economic commodity o u t p u t s , may  total  be r e g a r d e d as p a r t i t i o n s o f  larger matrices: T  =  Keif  77  e -| T = -, i  where  T  and K =  V  i s a 2 ( z - n + l ) x r m a t r i x o f e c o l o g i c commodities.  An  "til  element o f  T shows t h e use o r p r o d u c t i o n o f the k  commodity i n the i * *  1  region.  K  i s a 2 ( z - n  ecologic  + l ) x m  matrix  o f e c o l o g i c commodity i n p u t and output c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  e  i s an  m x m d i a g o n a l m a t r i x o f i n d u s t r y marketed o u t p u t s .  H*  is  t h e t r a n s p o s e o f the m a t r i x  II , which i s an r x m m a t r i x o f  c o e f f i c i e n t s showing t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f the j * *  1  i n d u s t r y output  measured a t base p e r i o d p r i c e s , l o c a t e d i n the  region.  Each element i n T must be s o c i a l l y e v a l u a t e d . as the s o c i a l e v a l u a t i o n o f one u n i t o f the i  "th  Define  ecologic  "th  commodity used o r d i s c h a r g e d i n the j arranged  region.  i n a m a t r i x ii o f o r d e r 2(z - n + 1) x r .  The w^jS The  may  social  be  evaluation  o f the m a t r i x T  o f T by the  The  i s found by m u l t i p l y i n g each element  c o r r e s p o n d i n g element o f ft and  s o c i a l evaluation  of  where * i n d i c a t e s t h a t the be m u l t i p l i e d by i n t o a new  the  matrix.  ij^  T  ij * t  1  =  1  (  z  ~  summing the  n  +  1  )  ( T * p  J  ) l  total.  78  r  element o f the m a t r i x T  element o f t h e m a t r i x ft and  The  elements o f t h i s new  by p r e m u l t i p l i c a t i o n by  1  i s to  transcribed  matrix are  summed  (z-n+1) ' , a (z-n+1) x 1 v e c t o r  whose (r)  elements a r e r  e q u a l t o u n i t y , and  p o s t m u l t i p l i c a t i o n by  x 1 v e c t o r whose elements a l l e q u a l u n i t y .  e q u a t i o n (77) o f the  i n t o (78)  an  expression  w i t h e.  This expression  may  be used as the  a l i n e a r programming model:  Model  IV  ...  . .  Minimize Subject t o and  f o r the  ecologic  , (z-n+1),-r7~ -»  1  (Ken  He>Bl e  > 0  n  »u)l A f l l l  (r)  (i) (ii)  , an  Substituting social  evaluation  i n d u s t r y marketed o u t p u t s e i s o b t a i n e d , t a k i n g  of the r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the  in  1  account  commodities objective  associated  function  FOOTNOTES - Chapter I I I  1.  Dominion  Bureauof S t a t i s t i c s ,  Standard I n d u s t r i a l Manual, Cat. No.  12-501, p.8.  2.  I b i d , p. 7  3.  See, f o r example, A l o i s X. Schmidt and Harvey L. L i s t , and Energy B a l a n c e s (New J e r s e y : Cliffs,  4.  Material  P r e n t i c e - H a l l , Inc. , Englewood  1962).  The e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e two papers:  i s c o n v e n i e n t l y reviewed i n t h e f o l l o w i n g  T e r r y G i g a n t e s and P a u l  Pitts,  'An I n t e g r a t e d Input-  Ouput Framework and some R e l a t e d A n a l y t i c a l Models',  (paper p r e s e n t e d  t o t h e Canadian P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , Conference on S t a t i s t i c s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver, B.C. June 12-13, 1965).  T e r r y G i g a n t e s and T. I . Matuszewski,  'Rectangular  Input-Output Systems, Taxonomy and A n a l y s i s ' , (paper p r e s e n t e d a t t h e F o u r t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l Conference on Input-Output T e c h n i q u e s , Geneva, January 8-12, 1968).  5.  G i g a n t e s and Matuszewski,  'Rectangular Input-Output  Systems'.  6.  Dominion  Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s Input-Output Research and Develop-  ment S t a f f , The Input-Output S t r u c t u r e o f the Canadian Economy, 1.961, Vol. I  (Ottawa, August, 1969).  Throughout t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n  Dominion  Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s w i l l be a b b r e v i a t e d t o D.B.S..  7.  Gideon R o s e n b l u t h , 'Input-Output A n a l y s i s :  A Critique',  Statistische  H e f t e , V o l . 9, Number 4, 1968.  8.  Dominion  Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s , Input-Output S t r u c t u r e ,  9.  I b i d . , pp. 142-143.  10.  I b i d . , p. 99.  11.  See Chapter IV.  12.  R o s e n b l u t h , 'Input-Output A n a l y s i s :  13.  Dominion  A C r i t i q u e ' , pp. 265-66.  Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s , Input-Output S t r u c t u r e ,  303.  14.  Ibid.  15.  See Chapter I I , pp. 30-44.  pp. 141-142.  pp. 294-  16.  Whether o r not carbon d i o x i d e i s as harmless as was i s now  a m a t t e r o f debate.  once thought  I t i s thought by some w r i t e r s ,  a g l o b a l accumulation o f carbon d i o x i d e in tend t o r a i s e the temperature o f the E a r t h .  t h e atmosphere  that will  For a d i s c u s s i o n o f  t h i s problem, see P a u l R. E h r l i c h and Anne H. E h r l i c h , P o p u l a t i o n , Resources and Environment, W.  17.  I s s u e s f o r Human E c o l o g y . (San F r a n c i s c o :  H. Freeman and Co., 1970), pp. 145-48.  A more g e n e r a l v e r s i o n o f model I I can be b u i l t production i s also constrained.  i n which  surplus  T h i s would t a k e account o f the  f a c t t h a t when s u r p l u s s e s a r e a l l o w e d t h e f i n a l demand v e c t o r can be produced i n an i n f i n i t e number o f ways and so i t i s d e s i r a b l e to  c o n s t r a i n t h e s u r p l u s s e s because t h e i r consumption  waste p r o d u c t s and uses ' f r e e '  goods.  produces  CHAPTER IV A STUDY OF THE THE YEAR 1961  A.  PRODUCTION AND  DISPOSAL OF WASTES IN CANADA  FOR  INTRODUCTION On s e a r c h i n g through  the l i t e r a t u r e on waste p r o d u c t i o n  and  d i s p o s a l i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t d e s p i t e the growing conerri o f Canadians f o r t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e i r environment v e r y l i t t l e  i s known about the  e x t e n t o f waste p r o d u c t i o n i n Canada and the methods by which i t i s disposed.  I t i s not d i f f i c u l t t o f i n d items o f r e s e a r c h t h a t  c o n t a i n q u a n t i t a t i v e statements the p r o c e s s chemicals  in  about matters  r a n g i n g from  wbollen-mi.ll wastes* t o the p r o d u c t i o n 2  o f s o l i d wastes by t u r k e y s  .  However, nowhere has an attempt been  made t o b r i n g t o g e t h e r t h e d i v e r s e f a c t s r e l a t i n g t o waste p r o d u c t i o n and d i s p o s a l i n Canada.  I t would seem t h a t t h i s i s  a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o any d i s c u s s i o n o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l  quality that  sought t o t r e a t the t o p i c a t a n y t h i n g more than a micro  level.  What f o l l o w s i s a c o m p i l a t i o n o f t h e a v a i l a b l e data t o g e t h e r w i t h many estimates, o r i g i n a l t o t h i s s t u d y , o f the s o u r c e s o f wastes and t h e i r d i s p o s a l i n Canada d u r i n g  1961.  In most i n q u i r i e s about the waste p r o d u c t s t h a t emanate from economic a c t i v i t y the wastes a r e c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o the media which r e c e i v e them: a i r , l a n d and water. i f one  Consequently,  i s i n t e r e s t e d i n the waste p r o d u c t s which come from a  p a r t i c u l a r economic u n i t , and consumer as n o r m a l l y  t h i s may  be a producer  defined, i t i s necessary  or a  to s e l e c t  the  data  from s e p a r a t e d i s c u s s i o n s o f a i r , l a n d and water p o l l u t i o n . Since i t i s the purpose of the p r e s e n t  study  to r e l a t e  the  p r o d u c t i o n o f wastes to the Canadian economy, the wastes must e v e n t u a l l y be c l a s s i f i e d which produces them.  a c c o r d i n g to the economic  activity  The model o f the Canadian economy t h a t  i s to be used as the b a s i c framework i s a 16 i n d u s t r y , 40 3 commodity i n p u t - o u t p u t model f o r the year 1961. was  f u l l y d e s c r i b e d i n Chapter  relating  the waste products  111.  T h i s model  It suffices  to these 16  to say t h a t by  industries  to impute the wastes a t t r i b u t a b l e to each o f the 40 Wastes which are produced by i n d u s t r i e s w i l l  the heading As  commodities.  t h e r e f o r e be  a c c o r d i n g to the i n d u s t r y which produces them. which r e s u l t  i t is possible  classified  S i m i l a r l y , wastes  from consumption a c t i v i t i e s w i l l be grouped under o f f i n a l demand.  f o r the data themselves,  i n l e v e l of aggregation. c o u r s e , been used.  they v a r y g r e a t l y i n t h e i r  accuracy  Canadian data, when a v a i l a b l e have, o f  Sometimes, however, one  finds figures for  o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y the U n i t e d S t a t e s , which have no Canadian e q u i v a l e n t .  Where p o s s i b l e these U n i t e d  f i g u r e s have been s u i t a b l y c o n v e r t e d become c l e a r when s p e c i f i c  States  to d e s c r i b e Canada.  i n s t a n c e s of these c o n v e r s i o n s  being c o n s i d e r e d , some ambitious  As are  leaps o f f a i t h have been made  to d e r i v e f i g u r e s of d o u b t f u l v a l i d i t y .  will  F u r t h e r , i t must be noted collected  i s f a r from b e i n g the complete s t o r y of Canadian  waste p r o d u c t i o n and of  t h a t the data t h a t have been  important  research.  disposal.  The  study  i s permeated w i t h  omissions  data which serve to p r o v i d e t o p i c s f o r f u r t h e r Rounding e r r o r s , too, occur f r e q u e n t l y as  do  d i s c r e p a n c i e s , a l b e i t v e r y s l i g h t ones, between columns o f f i g u r e s and  t h e i r reported  Finally,  totals.  some comments on t e r m i n o l o g y  whether o r not a waste i s a p o l l u t a n t ,  are c a l l e d f o r .  t h a t i s , whether i t s  e l i m i n a t i o n , o t h e r t h i n g s e q u a l , would i n c r e a s e s o c i a l w e l f a r e , depends upon s o c i a l p r e f e r e n c e s .  To a v o i d c o n f u s i o n , the term  p o l l u t a n t w i l l not be used and a t t e n t i o n w i l l  be f o c u s s e d  on  the more p e r v a s i v e phenomenon o f waste. In view o f the r a t h e r t e c h n i c a l n a t u r e o f the d i s c u s s i o n a g l o s s a r y o f terms which may p r o v i d e d on page 417  be u n f a m i l i a r to the economist, i s  of t h i s study.  Furthermore, page  416.  c o n t a i n s a summary and d e f i n i t i o n o f the a b b r e v i a t i o n s t h a t are used both  THE  i n the t e x t and  ESTIMATION OF THE The  i n the t a b l e s d e s c r i b e d i n the  text.  PRODUCTION OF WASTES: AN OVERVIEW  problems i n v o l v e d i n e s t i m a t i n g the waste  products  from each i n d u s t r y v a r y a c c o r d i n g to the type and q u a l i t y o f the data t h a t are a v a i l a b l e .  I d e a l l y one c o u l d draw on data from  a waste p r o d u c t m o n i t o r i n g s e r v i c e which, t o d a t e , i s no more than an i d e a i n t h e minds o f those i n t e r e s t e d i n the problem o f waste production.  Very much a second b e s t approach makes use o f  'emission f a c t o r s ' p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the e s t i m a t i o n o f a i r b o r n e wastes.  I f i t i s knownthat, on t h e average, the  combustion  o f one g a l l o n o f g a s o l i n e i n a motor c a r l e a d s t o the e m i s s i o n o f x pounds o f carbon monoxide and y pounds o f n i t r o g e n d i o x i d e and i f i t i s knownhow many g a l l o n s o f g a s o l i n e were used by automobiles i n Canada d u r i n g 1961 t h e n t h e t o t a l e m i s s i o n o f carbon monoxide and n i t r o g e n d i o x i d e from automobile for  1961  i s e a s i l y estimated.  the  e s t i m a t e s o f a i r p o l l u t i o n from f u e l combustion  travel  T h i s i s the method by which a l l have  been c a l c u l a t e d i n t h i s s t u d y . C e r t a i n problems  a r i s e i n c h o o s i n g the a p p r o p r i a t e e m i s s i o n  f a c t o r s ( t h a t i s , the x pounds and y poundsof t o use i n computation.  the above  paragraph)  F i r s t o f a l l , t h e s e f a c t o r s must be  averages o f a l l s o r t s o f t h i n g s . In the case o f automobile for  travel,  example, each type o f g a s o l i n e produces wastes i n d i f f e r e n t  p r o p o r t i o n s on combustion.  Furthermore, t h e s e wastes w i l l v a r y  w i t h the type o f a u t o m o b i l e , t h e way  i n which i t i s d r i v e n w i t h  r e s p e c t t o speed and a c c e l e r a t i o n , and a l t i t u d e .  The  derivation  o f average e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s i s i n d e e d a c o m p l i c a t e d m a t t e r , and as would be e x p e c t e d , d i f f e r e n t p e o p l e have d e r i v e d d i f f e r e n t v a l u e s  for  these emission  estimated  factors.  The d i f f e r e n c e s a r e n o t o n l y i n t h e  magnitude o f t h e f a c t o r s b u t a l s o i n t h e u n i t s o f  measurement used i n t h e i r d e f i n i t i o n .  T h i s c r e a t e s an  a d d i t i o n a l problem because t h e u n i t s cannot o f t e n be c o n v e r t e d t o a common base f o r comparison o f t h e f a c t o r s w i t h o u t some o t h e r average f i g u r e b e i n g used i n t h e p r o c e s s . Walters  give t h e i r emission  F o r example, H e l l e r and  f a c t o r s i n terms o f t n e c a l o r i f i c  5 v a l u e o f t h e f u e l s , whereas Duprey q u a n t i t y o f f u e l consumed. estimate  uses a measure o f t h e  A comparison o f t h e s e f a c t o r s r e q u i r e s an  o f t h e average c a l o r i f i c v a l u e o f t h e v a r i o u s  Rather t h a n r e l y on any one s e t o f e m i s s i o n study makes use o f t h e e m i s s i o n  these four references  factors this  f a c t o r s from H e l l e r and W a l t e r s ,  6  Duprey, Robinson and Robbins  fuels.  7  and Smith .  give emission  Taken  together,  f a c t o r s f o r up t o t e n  a i r b o r n e wastes though no i n d i v i d u a l r e f e r e n c e  gives t h i s  many  factors. I f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n were a v a i l a b l e , an account o f a i r b o r n e wastes would i n c l u d e n o t o n l y t h e s o u r c e s and q u a n t i t i e s o f t h e wastes b u t a l s o t h e d u r a t i o n o f t h e i r s t a y i n t h e atmosphere. T h i s would r e q u i r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f such important i s s u e s as t h e r e l a t i o n between v a r i o u s m e t e o r i o l o g i c a l and t o p o g r a p h i c a l c o n d i t i o n s and t h e d i s p e r s i o n o f t h e wastes but l i t t l e s a i d about t h e s e m a t t e r s a t t h e a g g r e g a t i v e  can be  level of this  study.  These f a c t o r s , however, can be i n t r o d u c e d  into local  studies  o f a i r b o r n e wastes which, i n t u r n , f i t i n t o t h e l a r g e r framework p r o v i d e d by t h e t h e o r e t i c a l models o f Chapter I I I . A i r b o r n e wastes have t h e i r o r i g i n i n n a t u r a l b i o l o g i c a l processes  as w e l l as i n domestic and i n d u s t r i a l  Although i t has n o t been attempted i n t h i s study t o make q u a n t i t a t i v e e s t i m a t e s  o f emissions  processes. i t i s possible  from n a t u r a l  I t should be noted t h a t f o r some gases such as s u l p h u r and  v a r i o u s n i t r o g e n compounds, n a t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n  sources.  dioxide  i s considerably  g l a r g e r than t h a t o f a r t i f i c i a l o r i g i n . A i r b o r n e wastes from domestic sources  come almost  from f u e l combustion f o r h e a t i n g and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . combustion by i n d u s t r y i s a l s o a v e r y important emitted  i n t o the a i r .  Indeed, i n t h i s s t u d y ,  entirely Fuel  source  o f wastes  n e a r l y , a l l .'the d a t a on  i n d u s t r i a l and domestic a i r b o r n e wastes have been d e r i v e d from an s x a m i n i a t i o n o f t h e combustion o f f u e l i n Canada, 1961. Although v a r i o u s p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e s  give r i s e t o s i g n i f i c a n t  q u a n t i t i e s o f wastes t h e d a t a on i n d u s t r i a l o p e r a t i o n s  collected  by t h e Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s a r e seldom p u b l i s h e d i n a form t h a t can be used f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e a s s o c i a t e d a i r b o r n e waste products.  However, t h e few p r o c e s s e s  can be made a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h i s The  estimates  on Canadian data.  f o r which such  estimates  study.  o f a i r b o r n e wastes a r e based almost The o p p o s i t e  entirely  i s true o f the estimates  o f water  borne wastes.  No comprehensive study has e v e r been made o f t h e  use o f water by Canadian  industry.  been made f o r t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g  Such a s t u d y , however, has  i n d u s t r i e s o f the United States  and i t i s t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s study t h a t a r e used as a guide t o t h e use o f water by Canadian m a n u f a c t u r i n g the r e l a t i v e s i z e s o f Canadian  industry.  By comparing  and U n i t e d S t a t e s i n d u s t r i e s i t  i s p o s s i b l e t o transform the data f o r a p a r t i c u l a r United S t a t e s i n d u s t r y so t h a t i t may be used f o r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g Canadian i n d u s t r y . The d a t a r e l a t i n g t o t h e domestic and commerical  discharge  o f waste water a r e somewhat b e t t e r than t h a t f o r i n d u s t r y , p r i m a r i l y because Canadian  d a t a a r e employed, though i t would be f o o l i s h t o  c l a i m t h a t most o f t h e f i g u r e s a r e a n y t h i n g more than s u g g e s t i v e o f t h e magnitudes i n v o l v e d . The p r o d u c t i o n and d i s p o s a l o f r e f u s e i n Canada i s t h e l e a s t w e l l documented p a r t o f t h e e n t i r e study.  Most o f t h e d a t a t h a t  have been c o l l e c t e d f o r Canada are c o n t a i n e d i n two m u n i c i p a l 10 11 r e p o r t s : one f o r Vancouver, 1958 and t h e o t h e r f o r T o r o n t o , 1967 Together w i t h t h e more complete  data f o r the United States these  s t u d i e s p r o v i d e t h e s o l e s o u r c e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n on Canadian  solid  waste p r o d u c t i o n and d i s p o s a l . Although  i t i s t h e aim o f t h i s study t o c l a s s i f y a l l wastes  a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r source r a t h e r than t h e i r s i n k , i t i s c o n v e n i e n t  to deal with  waterbome: wastes, a i r b o r n e waste and wastes d i s c h a r g e d  onto l a n d i n s e p a r a t e s e c t i o n s .  A f i n a l s e c t i o n w i l l then be  devoted t o c o l l a t i n g t h e d a t a i n t h e s e t h r e e s e c t i o n s so t h a t they correspond t o t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t a c t i v i t i e s o f the Dominion  Bureau  12 o f S t a t i s t i c s accounts  .  To f a c i l i t a t e t h i s c o l l a t i o n o f t h e  d a t a , t h e headings g i v e n t o t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s , i n which p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r i e s a r e d i s c u s s e d , i n c l u d e a number which  t o t h e 16 i n d u s t r y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f t h e Input-Output  corresponds 13  model  ( F o r example, a heading which i n c l u d e d 'D.B.S.'5' would  indicate  that the data d i s c u s s e d i n t h e s e c t i o n a p p l i e s t o the t e x t i l e i n d u s t r y which i s t h e f i f t h Output Cl.  i n d u s t r y i n t h e 16 i n d u s t r y Input.-  model).  THE USE OF WATER AND THE PRODUCTION OF WATERBORNE WASTES IN CANADA, 1961 Three c a t e g o r i e s o f water u s e r s may be d e f i n e d : manufacturing i n d u s t r i e s , o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s , and domestic.  These t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s  w i l l be examined s e p a r a t e l y .  C.l.a)  THE USE OF WATER IN CANADIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND THE PRODUCTION OF WATERBORNE WASTES (DBS 4-11) The use o f water i n U n i t e d S t a t e s manufacturing  industries  d u r i n g 1964 i s documented i n t h e 1963 Census o f M a n u f a c t u r i n g 14 Industry  .  Some o f t h i s d a t a i s reproduced  i n T a b l e 4.  The  r e s t o f t h e d a t a i n T a b l e 4 d e s c r i b e - t h e e s t i m a t e d use o f water  THE USE OF WATER BY UNITED STATES MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN 1964 AND CANADIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN 1961  MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROUP  2  3  INPUT/ OUTPUT CLASS. NO.  U.S. CODE NO.  ~5 VALUE OF U.S. SHIPMENTS 1964 ( M i l l i o n $ U.S.)  5 VALUE OF CAN. SHIPMENTS 1961 ( M i l l i o n $ Can.)  6~ RELATIVE SIZE OF U.S. AND CANADIAN INDUSTRIES  7 U.S. WATER INTAKE 1964 ( B i l l i o n U.S. G a l s . ) TOTAL FRESH BRACKISH  Food, Feed, Beverage and Tobacco Industries  20, 21  76,488  5,474.3  14:1  769  684  Textile Industries  22, 31  20,908  2,217.4  9.4:1  148  146  Wood and Furniture Industries  24, 25  15,766  1,426.0  11:1  154  129  24  26  17,142  2,228.7  7.7:1  2,071 1,918  152  79  1 MBUEACT.URING H33BSTRY GROUP  2 INPUT/ OUTPUT CLASS. NO.  3  4 VALUE OF U.S. U.S. SHIPMENTS CODE 1964 NO. ( M i l l i o n $ U.S.)  5 VALUE OF CAN. SHIPMENTS 1961 ( M i l l i o n $ Can.)  6 RELATIVE SIZE OF U.S. AND CANADIAN INDUSTRIES  7 U.S. WATER INTAKE 1964 ( B i l l i o n U.S. G a l s . ) TOTAL FRESH BRACKISH  •  Primary M e t a l ansf M e t a l Fabricating Industries  Transportation and E l e c t r i c Equipment Manufacturers  Cfaemi'cal.,. Rubber and. Petroleum Products Industries  ©ther Manufacturing Industries  8 r  33, 34, 35  •93,324  4,930.8  18.9:1  4,729  352  297  55  5,449  3,420  2,029  291  251  9  36, 37  89,361.3  3,372.4  26.5:1  10  28, 29, 30  61,710  3,079.5  20:1  32, 38, 39  26,099.8  2,220.2  11.8:1  11  4,355  457  39  10  8 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROUP  •Food, Feed, Beverage and Tobacco Industries  GROSS WATER USED U.S. ( B i l l i o n U.S. G a l s . )  TOTAL WATER DISCHARGED ( B i l l i o n U.S. G a l s . )  TREATED PRIOR TO DISCHARGE ( B i l l i o n U.S. G a l s . )  1! STANDARD B.O.D. ( M i l l i o n Pounds) BEFORE  12 SETTLEABLE & SUSPENDED SOLIDS ( M i l l i o n Pounds) TREATMENT  i—• 1,290  690  158  4,300  6,600  n.a.  Textile .Industries  311  135  35  810  Wood and Furniture Industries  221  126  34  I n c l u d e d i n #11  6,026  1,947  707  5,900  3,000  8  MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROUP  Erimary Metal and Metal Fabricating Industries  Transportation and E l e c t r i c Equipment Manufacturers  Chemical, Rubber and Petroleum Products Industries  Other Manufacturing Industries  GROSS WATER USED U.S. ( B i l l i o n U.S. Gals.)  10  TOTAL WATER DISCHARGED ( B i l l i o n U.S. Gals.)  11  TREATED PRIOR TO DISCHARGE ( B i l l i o n U.S. Gals.)  12  SETTLEABLE & STANDARD B.O.D. SUSPENDED SOLIDS ( M i l l i o n Pounds) ( M i l l i o n Pounds) BEFORE TREATMENT  7,188  4,514  1,199  480  4,700  929  328  39  190  n.a.  14,074  5,134  487  256  1,022  50  10,240  2,410  450  980  1  MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROUP  14  13 CAN. WATER INTAKE 1961 ( B i l l i o n Imp. G a l s . ) T o t a l Fresh Brackish  GROSS WATER USED CANADA ( B i l l i o n lop. G a l s . )  Food, Feed, Beverage and Tobacco Industries  45.4  40.7  4.7  77.6  Textile Industries  15.7  15.5  0.1  Wood and Furni ture Industries  14.0  11.7  Paper and Allied Industries  218.2  207.5  16  15  TOTAL WATER DISCHARGED ( B i l l i o n Imp. G a l s . )  17  PERCENTAGE TREATED PRIOR TREATED TO DISCHARGE ( B i l l i o n Imp. G a l s . )  41  8.3  20  33  14.4  3.7  25  2.2  20.1  11.5  3.1  27  16.4  651.9  210.6  /  76.5  36  13  14  MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROUP  CAN. WATER INTAKE 1961 ( B i l l i o n Imp. G a l s . ) T o t a l Fresh Brackish  Primary M e t a l and M e t a l Fabricating Industries  211.2  Transportation and E l e c t r i c Equipment Manufacturers  Chemical, Rubber and Petroleum Products Industries  Other Manufacturing Industries  11  190  20.1  15  GROSS WATER USED CANADA ( B i l l i o n Imp. Gals.)  316.8  9.3  1.7  30  226.9  142.4  84.5  586.2  24.7  21.3  3.3  41.3  TOTAL WATER DISCHARGED ( B i l l i o n Imp. G a l s . )  16  TREATED PRIOR TO DISCHARGE ( B i l l i o n Imp. G a l s . )  17  PERCENTAGE TREATED  52.8  27  1.2  12  213.8  42.6  20  21.7  4.2  21  199  10.3  18  19 POLLUTANTS  MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROUP  Food, Feed, Beverage and Tobacco I n d u s t r i e s  Textile Industries  Wood and Furniture Industries  STANDARD B.O.D. ( M i l l i o n Pounds)  REMAINING  SETTLEABLE & SUSPENDED SOLIDS ( M i l l i o n Pounds)  246  94.7  377  n.a.  Included i n #11  559  285  INPUT/ OUTPUT CLASS. NO.  VJ4  1  18 '.  19  2  POLLUTANTS REMAINING INPUT/  MANUFACTURING -INDUSTRY GROUP  STANDARD B.O.D. ( M i l l i o n Pounds)  Primary M e t a l and M e t a l Fabricating Industries  Transportation and E l e c t r i c Equipment Manufacturers  Chemical, Rubber and Petroleum Products Industries  Other Manufacturing Industries Sources:  SETTLEABLE & SUSPENDED SOLIDS ( M i l l i o n Pounds)  see t e x t , pp.  OUTPUT CLASS. NO.  ., .  " 18  62  410  38.1  130-143.  .•  • ->".' " : 182 ?  n.a.  97  83  10  11  i n Canadian m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s d u r i n g 1961.  For example,  column 13 o f T a b l e 4 shows t h e e s t i m a t e d t o t a l water i n t a k e o f 8 m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y groups i n Canada, d u r i n g 1961.  The  food i n d u s t r y group took i n 45.4 b i l l i o n g a l l o n s o f water, o f which 40.7 b i l l i o n g a l l o n s w e r e f r e s h water and 4.7 b i l l i o n  gallons  were b r a c k i s h water.  was  used.  Columns 13-17 d e s c r i b e how t h i s water  Gross water u s e , r e c o r d e d i n column 14, a l l o w s f o r the  r e c y c l i n g o f water w i t h i n t h e p l a n t .  Thus, t h e f o o d  industry  group used 77.6 b i l l i o n g a l l o n s o f water through r e c y c l i n g . The same i n d u s t r y group d i s c h a r g e d 41 b i l l i o n  g a l l o n s o f water  o f which 8 . 3 . b i l l i o n g a l l o n s were t r e a t e d p r i o r t o d i s c h a r g e . •Estimates such as t h e s e , which were made f o r each o f t h e 8 i n d u s t r y groups, were based upon the f o l l o w i n g assumptions: (1)  The p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s o f Canadian m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n 1961 were t h e same as those o f U n i t e d S t a t e s m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n 1964.  (2)  These p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s have f i x e d  (3)  T a k i n g account o f the exchange r a t e and t h e changing l e v e l o f U n i t e d S t a t e s p r i c e s between the  coefficients.  1961 and  1964,  p r i c e s o f Canadian manufactured' goods i n 1961  wer^the same as those f o r U n i t e d S t a t e s manufactured goods i n 1964. (4)  A l l U n i t e d S t a t e s i n d u s t r i e s grew between 1963  and  1964 a t t h e average growth r a t e f o r t h e e n t i r e U n i t e d S t a t e s economy as measured by the r a t e o f growth i n G.N.P.  The r e a s o n s f o r these a s s u m p t i o n s w i l l become apparent i n what f o l l o w s . I t s h o u l d not be thought, t h a t because  the assumption?  t h a t the d a t a d e r i v e d f o r Canada based upon t h e s e cannot be used f o r the i n t e n d e d purpose.  are  false  assumptions  I t w i l l be argued  t h a t t h e f i g u r e s t o be p r e s e n t e d f o r Canadian  later  manufacturing  i n d u s t r i e s use o f water a r e more than j u s t an a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f unknown a c c u r a c y .  There are good r e a s o n s f o r b e l i e v i n g  that  the f i g u r e s are u n d e r e s t i m a t e s o f what t h e y p u r p o r t t o measure. That t h i s i s so i s p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t t o p o l i c y about  discussions  i n d u s t r i a l waste water. R e f e r r i n g t o T a b l e 4 the procedure f o r c o n v e r t i n g the d a t a  f o r Canadian use was (a)  Columns 1-3:  as f o l l o w s :  The U n i t e d S t a t e s i n d u s t r i e s were grouped  n e c e s s a r y t o correspond t o the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f Canadian  as  industries  t h a t i s ued i n t h e 15 i n d u s t r y i n p u t - o u t p u t model o f Canada f o r 15 1961 (b)  . Column 4:  The d a t a f o r U n i t e d S t a t e s i n d u s t r i a l water  use  16 a r e f o r 1964  ,  However, no e q u i v a l e n t breakdown o f U n i t e d S t a t e s  i n d u s t r i e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r s i z e (as measured by v a l u e o f shipments)  i s a v a i l a b l e f o r t h a t y e a r . Consequently, the s i z e s o f  t h e s e i n d u s t r i e s had t o be e s t i m a t e d . by assuming  T h i s was  accomplished  t h a t a l l U n i t e d S t a t e s m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s grew  between 1963  and 1964  at the average growth r a t e o f G.N.P. e q u a l  17 to  4.8  per cent  .  T h i s growth r a t e was  data which appears i n t h e 1963 Column 5:  then a p p l i e d t o the  Census o f manufacaturing  The v a l u e o f Canadian m a u f a c t u r i n g  1963 18  industry  output  by 19  i n d u s t r y was  taken from T a b l e 1 o f the Canadian i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s  Column 6:  The r e l a t i v e s i z e s o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s and  Canadian m a n u f a c t u r i n g  i n d u s t r i e s were c a l c u l a t e d , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r  r e s p e c t i v e v a l u e s o f shipments i n t h e a p p r o p r i a t e y e a r s . t h i s two (i)  f a c t o r s needed t o be accounted  To  do  for.  The f o r e i g n exchange r a t e between U n i t e d S t a t e s  and  Canadian d o l l a r s , (ii)  The 1961  change i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s p r i c e l e v e l between and  1964.  I t t u r n s out t h a t these f a c t o r s a r e o f f s e t t i n g w i t h t h e outcome t h a t t h e v a l u e o f $1 Canadian i n 1961 he v a l u e o f $1 U.S.  i n 1964.  At t h e c l o s e o f 1961 The v a l u e of $1 U.S. i s such t h a t $1.0378 U.S.  T h i s may  very c l o s e l y  approximatesj  be seen as f o l l o w s :  $l.04~£ Canadian bought $1 U . S . . 20  i n 1964 i n 1964  i n terms o f $ U.S. = $1 U.S. i n 1961.  i n 1961 This i s  based on t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s consumer p r i c e index as r e p o r t e d i n t h e 21 S t a t i s t i c a l A b s t r a c t o f the U n i t e d S t a t e s i n 1966 the f o l l o w i n g d a t a : -  which i n c l u d e s  P u r c h a s i n g Power Of The U n i t e d S t a t e s D o l l a r as Measured By Consumer P r i c e s  Year  Dollars  1957  1.021  1958 1961 1963 1964  .994 .960 .937 .925  S i n c e the v a l u e o f $1 Canadian i n 1961  1.00  i n terms o f 1961  d o l l a r s i s almost  e q u a l t o the v a l u e o f $1 U.S. 11  term o f 1961  d o l l a r s ( t h a t is,$ 1.04-*-= 1.0378) i t  U.S.  f o l l o w s t h a t $1 Canadian i n 1961 v a l u e t o $1 U.S.  in  Columns 7-10:  i n 1964  i s approximately  U.S. in  equal i n  1964. The d a t a r e l a t i n g t o the use o f water i n  t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s were taken from the 1963 22  Census o f U n i t e d  States Manufacturing I n d u s t r i e s Columns 11-12: demand) and  The volume o f B.O.D. ( b i o c h e m i c a l oxygen  s e t t e a b l e and suspended s o l i d s b e f o r e treatment 23  r e p o r t e d i n C l e a n i n g Our Environment the d a t a i s taken  are  . Although the t a b l e from which  i s c i t e d as r e f e r r i n g t o 1963,  the v a l u e s f o r t h e •  waste water t h a t a r e a l s o r e p o r t e d i n t h i s t a b l e correspond c l o s e l y t o the v a l u e s taken from t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s Census  very  and r e p r o d u c e d i n Column 9, which a r e f o r 1964. I t i s thought t h a t an e r r o r has been made i n C l e a n i n g Our Environment and t h a t , i n d e e d , t h e d a t a g i v e n t h e r e i s f o r 1964 and n o t 1963. (g)  Columns 13-16:  Using the r e l a t i v e s i z e s o f the United  S t a t e s and Canadian i n d u s t r i e s as g i v e n i n Column 6, t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s d a t a f o r water use were reduced p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y .  The  a p p r o p r i a t e adjustment was made t o c o n v e r t t h e Canadian d a t a 24 to I m p e r i a l g a l l o n s (h)  Column 17:  The percentage o f waste water t r e a t e d was  c a l c u l a t e d from the d a t a i n columns15 (i)  Columnsi8,19: suspended  C.l.b)  and 16.  The f i g u r e s f o r B.O.D. and s e t t e a b l e and  s o l i d s r e m a i n i n g r e f e r t o t h e u n t r e a t e d water.  A BRIEF EVALUATION OF THE ESTIMATES OF B.O.D. AND SETTLEABLE AND SUSPENDED SOLIDS The e s t i m a t e s o f t h e use o f water by Canadian m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s a r e v e r y approximate.  I t i s worthwhile t o c o n s i d e r  t h e u n d e r l y i n g assumptions t o see what, i f a n y t h i n g , can be l e a r n e d about t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e f i g u r e s . Two assumptions were made about t h e p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s o f U n i t e d S t a t e s and Canadian m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s .  The assumed  f i x e d c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e f u n c t i o n s i s fundamental t o a l l i n p u t output a n a l y s e s and needs no f u r t h e r defense here.  The assumed  s i m i l a r i t y o f the f u n c t i o n s i s a d i f f e r e n t matter. I f a n y t h i n g i s known about the t e c h n o l o g i e s o f Canadian and U n i t e d i n d u s t r i e s i t i s t h a t the technology  States  used i n the U n i t e d  States  t e n d s t o be s e v e r a l y e a r s ahead o f t h a t used i n Canada.  However,  the r e v e r s e i s i m p l i e d by t h e assumption t h a t the same p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n s may i n 1961  and  be used t o d e s c r i b e Canadian manufacturing  U n i t e d S t a t e s manufacturing  i n d u s t r i e s i n 1964.  s i n c e i n t e r e s t i s i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l use o f water i n t h e countries, a t t e n t i o n must be f o c u s s e d production functions. it  Consequently productuon  counterparts i n the United States.  techniques their  T h i s means t h a t , on t h i s b a s i s  i n T a b l e 4 o f t h e Canadian i n t a k e and  use o f water are l i k e l y t o be too low. a  two  on t h i s aspectjsf t h e r e s p e c t i v e  a r e l i k e l y t o be more water i n t e n s i v e i n Canada than  (column i 3 ) n d  The  gross  t o t a l water i n t a k e  g r o s s water used (•column 1 4 ) , which t a k e s  account t h e r e c y c l i n g  But  Water i s r e l a t i v e l y cheaper i n Canada than  i s i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s .  a l o n e , the e s t i m a t e s  industies  into  o f water w i t h i n i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s , a r e  p r o b a b l y both g r e a t e r than the f i g u r e s g i v e n . One  supposes a l s o t h a t the r e l a t i v e abundance o f c l e a n water  i n Canada as compared w i t h the U n i t e d S t a t e s would l e a d t o p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l e s s treatment i n Canada.  o f i n d u s t r i a l water b e f o r e  discharge  Thus, the e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f d i s c h a r g e d  water t h a t i s t r e a t e d , as g i v e n i n column 17, may  be taken t o be  too  high.  I t f o l l o w s t h a t t h e e s t i m a t e s f o r wastes r e m a i n i n g  treatment i n columns 18 and 19 a r e t o o low. t o o low f o r another r e a s o n . assumption  after  But t h e y a r e a l s o  They were c a l c u l a t e d on t h e  t h a t t h e water treatment removed a l l wastes  c o m p l e t e l y from t h e t r e a t e d water.  The. t e c h n o l o g y used i n  t h e treatment o f i n d u s t r i a l waste water i n Canada d u r i n g 1961 c o u l d n o t have made t h i s p o s s i b l e . These c o n s i d e r a t i o n s suggest t h a t t h e e s t i m a t e s f o r b o t h the use o f water by Canadian m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n 1961 and t h e consequent  output o f B.O.D. and s e t t l e a b l e and suspended  s o l i d s a r e t o o low.  From t h i s i t i s t r u e t o say t h a t  insofar  as t h e i n d u s t r i a l usage o f water i s a cause f o r p u b l i c concern t h e magnitude o f t h e problem  i s a t l e a s t t h a t i n d i c a t e d by t h e f i g u r e s  i n T a b l e 4.  C.l.c)  THE PRODUCTION OF OTHER CATEGORIES OF WATERBORNE WASTES BY CANADIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IN 1961 (DBS 4-11) In s e c t i o n l . a ) e s t i m a t e s waterborne  w  e  r  e  made o f t h e B.O.D. o f  wastes and t h e s e t t l e a b l e and suspended  Canadian m a n u f a c t u r i n g  industries.  solids  from  These two aggregate measures  o f waste a r e t h e o n l y ones f o r which d a t a i s g i v e n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s Census o f I n d u s t r i e s .  Estimates o f other categories o f  wastes a r e p o s s i b l e , however, w i t h t h e use o f d a t a from a study  of water q u a l i t y standards  i n the San F r a n c i s c o Bay-Delta  In t h i s study waste load c o e f f i c i e n t s  a r e g i v e n f o r seven  groups and seven types o f waterborne wastes.  area industrial  These c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e  i n u n i t s o f tons o f waste p e r $1,000,000 o f i n d u s t r y o u t p u t . They were c a l c u l a t e d  from d a t a g i v e n o r i g i n a l l y i n u n i t s o f 26  tons o f waste p e r t o n o f i n d u s t r y output d o l l a r v a l u a t i o n s o f i n d u s t r y output  w i t h the use o f  taken from accounts f o r  the y e a r 1963. The  seven  types o f waterborne wastes f o r which  coefficients  are g i v e n i n the study o f the San F r a n c i s c o Bay-Delta area i n c l u d e B.O.D. and s e t t l e a b l e and suspended s o l i d s . therefore,  to compare the c o e f f i c i e n t s  w i t h the e q u i v a l e n t c o e f f i c i e n t s  I t was p o s s i b l e ,  g i v e n f o r these wastes  calculated  from Table 4 which  i s based upon data from the U n i t e d S t a t e s 1963 Census o f Manufactures. Such a comparison  showed t h a t t h e r e a r e s i g n i f i c a n t  d i f f e r e n c e s between the c o e f f i c i e n t s suspended s o l i d s  f o r B.O.D. and s e t t l e a b l e and  d e r i v e d from t h e two s o u r c e s .  F o r example, i n  the San F r a n c i s c o study a c o e f f i c i e n t o f 6.36 tons B.O.D. p e r $ million group.  i s g i v e n f o r the food and k i n d r e d p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r y T h i s compares w i t h a c o e f f i c i e n t 27  $ million, calculated  from Table 4  the B.O.D. c o e f f i c i e n t s  .  o f 22.5 tons B.O.D. p e r  A s i m i l a r comparison o f  f o r a l l the i n d u s t r y groups showed t h a t  the San F r a n c i s c o c o e f f i c i e n t s were up t o 9 times s m a l l e r than  the c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o e f f i c i e n t s economy as e s t i m a t e d  f o r the e n t i r e  United States  from the d a t a i n T a b l e 4.  On  referring 28  to the o r i g i n a l source o f the San F r a n c i s c o c o e f f i c i e n t s i t was  d i s c o v e r e d t h a t the o r i g i n a l data i n terms o f  tons  of waste per ton of s a l e a b l e output were g i v e n as a range of coefficients I t appears  f o r many o f the wastes and  industry outputs.  t h a t i n the economic study o f the San F r a n c i s c o 29  Bay-Delta without  area  the s e l e c t e d v a l u e s of the c o e f f i c i e n t s come,  e x p l a n a t i o n , from around the middle  that i s c i t e d One  i n the o r i g i n a l  p o s s i b l e way  coefficients  study.  of r e c o n c i l i n g  then, would be to s e l e c t  of the range  the d i v e r g e n t c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  the upper l i m i t o f the v a l u e s of the  f o r which ranges  are g i v e n , though i t turns out  t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between the San F r a n c i s c o and the U n i t e d S t a t e s c o e f f i c i e n t s  still  remains.  Rather  than  base the Canadian e s t i m a t e s o f i n d u s t r i a l waterborne wastes on such an a r b i t r a r y i t was  adjustment  i n the San F r a n c i s c o c o e f f i c i e n t s ,  c o n s i d e r e d more l e g i t i m a t e to compare the  industrial  use o f water i n C a l i f o r n i a w i t h t h a t o f the e n t i r e  United States  to see i f support c o u l d be found f o r the h y p o t h e s i s t h a t taken as a whole, U n i t e d S t a t e s i n d u s t r i e s use more water per u n i t of  30  output  than C a l i f o r n i a n  the case  industries  then the c o e f f i c i e n t s  .  I f t h i s proved  to be  f o r the San F r a n c i s c o area c o u l d  be a p p r o p r i a t e l y a d j u s t e d  t o take account o f t h e l i k e l i h o o d  t h a t t h e use o f water by an i n d u s t r y i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o the p r o p o r t i o n o f i t s waste p r o d u c t s d i s p o s e d  o f by water.  Note t h a t water use can be v a r i e d i n two d i f f e r e n t ways: a l t e r i n g t h e water i n t a k e o r by changing t h e extent o f water w i t h i n a p l a n t . for  each d o l l a r o f v a l u e  by  o f re-use  As columns 4 and 5 o f T a b l e 5 show, added o f t h e v a r i o u s  i n d u s t r y groups,  except stone and g l a s s , t h e water intakejof the e n t i r e  United  S t a t e s exceeds t h e C a l i f o r n i a n water i n t a k e , t h u s , column 4 shows t h a t f o r t h e food and k i n d r e d value  added i n t h e U n i t e d  p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r y group,  S t a t e s was $11,195 m i l l i o n j 10.5  times as l a r g e as t h a t f o r t h e C a l i f o r n i a n i n d u s t r y a t $1,065 m i l l i o n , i n 1963.  Column 5 shows t h a t , f o r t h e same i n d u s t r y  group, water i n t a k e i n t h e U n i t e d  S t a t e s was 12.5 t i m e s a s l a r g e  as t h a t o f C a l i f o r n i a i n 1963 (763 m i l l i o n g a l l o n s compared w i t h 61 m i l l i o n g a l l o n s ) . Although water i n t a k e was r e l a t i v e l y h i g h e r  i n the United  S t a t e s than i n C a l i f o r n i a , columns 5 and 6 o f t a b l e 5 show t h a t , f o r each d o l l a r o f v a l u e  added by a l l m a n u f a c t u r i n g  groups, except t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and e l e c t r i c a l  industry  equipment,  more e s t a b l i s h m e n t s  r e c i r c u l a t e d water i n C a l i f o r n i a t h a n i n  the U n i t e d  F o r example, column 6 shows t h a t , f o r t h e  food  States.  and k i n d r e d  p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r y group, t h e number,  of  :  A COMPARISON OF THE USE OF WATER BY INDUSTRIES IN CALIFORNIA AND THE U.S.A. IN 1963  MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY  Food and Kindred Products  D.B.S. U.S. CLASS CODE NO. NO.  20+ 21  RATIO U.S.:CALIF.  Paper and Allied Industries  26  RATIO U.S.:CALIF.  Primary M e t a l and M e t a l Fabricating RATIO U.S.:CALIF.  33+ 34+ 35  VALUE ADDED WATER INTAKE ($1 M) .(IM US GALS) U.S. U.S. CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA  NUMBER OF ESTABLISHMENTS RECIRCULATING WATER U.S. CALIFORNIA  GROSS WATER TOTAL WATER USED DISCHARGED RATIO OF WATER (IM US GALS) (IM US GALS) DISCHARGED U.S. U.S. RATIO,TO VALUE CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA ADDED RATIO  11,195.0 1,065.0  763.0 61.0  1,577.0 183.0  1,299.0 102.0  690.0 54.0  10.5  12.5  8.6  12.7  12.8  13,856.0 98.0  2,071.0 28.0  568.0 27.0  6,026.0 126.0  1,942.0 24.0  39.3  74.0  21.0  47.8  80.9  21,267.0 539.0  4,792.0 16.0  1,103.0 41.0  7,188.0 164.0  4,513.0 12.0  39.5  299.5  26.9  43.8  376.0  12.8 10.5  1.22  80.9 39.3  2.06  376.0 39.5  9.52  MANUFACTURING . INDUSTRY  Transportation and E l e c t r i c a l Equipment .  D.B.S . U.S. CLASS CODE NO NO  36+ 37  GROSS WATER USED (IM US GALS) U.S. CALIFORNIA  TOTAL WATER DISCHARGED (IM US GALS) U.S. CALIFORNIA  28,416.0 2,649.0  352.0 9.0  653.0 48.0  929.0 83.0  328.0 8.0  10.7  39.1  13.6  11.2  41.0  18,323.0 831.0  • 5,450.0 177.0  1,227.0 70.0  14,074.0 712.0  5,134.0 170.0  22.0  30.8  17.5  19.8  30.2  3,180.0 266,0  249.0 21.0  337.0 36.0  389,0 32.0  218.0 17.0  RATIO OF WATER DISCHARGED RATIO TO VALUE ADDED RATIO  41.0 10.7  9  RATIO U.S.:CALIF.  C h e m i c a l , Rubber and P e t r o l e u m 10  28+ 29+ 30  RATIO U.S.:CALIF.  Stone and G l a s s  VALUE ADDED ($1 M) U.S. CALIFORNIA  NUMBER OF ESTABLISHMENTS WATER INTAKE ''RECIRCULATING (IM US GALS) WATER U.S. U.S. CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA  11  32  3.83  30.2 22.0  1.37  12.8  \ -° 1 2  RATIO U.S.:CALIF.  Sources:  12.0  see t e x t , pp. 145-151  11.9  9.4  12.2  12.8  1.07  e s t a b l i s h m e n t s t h a t r e c i r c u l a t e d water i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o n l y 8 . 5 times as l a r g e as i n C a l i f o r n i a .  T h i s compares w i t h  r e s u l t t h a t , as coluran 4 shows, v a l u e added i n the U n i t e d by t h e f o o d and k i n d r e d p r o d u c t s  which show  the  States  i n d u s t r y group exceeded t h a t , f o r  t h e same i n d u s t r y group, i n C a l i f o r n i a by 1 0 . 5 The most important  was  times.  d a t a , i n the p r e s e n t c o n t e x t , are t h a t  t h a t f o r every d o l l a r of v a l u e added by each i n d u s t r y  group, t h e i n d u s t r i e s on a n a t i o n a l s c a l e d i s c h a r g e d more water. than the C a l i f o r n i a n i n d u s t r i e s .  The  e x t e n t t o which t h i s i s  t r u e o f each i n d u s t r y i s i n d i c a t e d by the l a s t column o f f i g u r e s i n T a b l e 5.  These f i g u r e s show t h a t , f o r example, i n the f o o d  kindred products output  1.22  industry  group, f o r every d o l l a r o f U n i t e d S t a t e s  times as much water was  o f C a l i f o r n i a n output. columns 8 and  4.  and  d i s c h a r g e d as f o r every  dollar  T h i s i s c a l c u l a t e d from the r a t i o s i n  Making the assumption t h a t the q u a l i t y o f the  water i s the same i n b o t h c a s e s , the waste l o a d c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the f o o d and k i n d r e d p r o d u c t s  i n d u s t r y group c i t e d i n t h e  San  31 F r a n c i s c o study  must be m u l t i p l i e d by 1.22  f o r i n d u s t r i e s at the n a t i o n a l l e v e l .  i n o r d e r t o be used  U s i n g the o t h e r  figures  o f column 9 a c o r r e s p o n d i n g adjustment needed t o be made t o a l l t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s so t h a t t h e a d j u s t e d c o e f f i c i e n t s o f T a b l e 6 were arrived at.  These a d j u s t e d c o e f f i c i e n t s c o u l d then be used on  b o t h U n i t e d S t a t e s and Canadian d a t a t o e s t i m a t e the output  of  ADJUSTED WASTE LOAD COEFFICIENTS FOR INDUSTRIAL WASTE WATER  INDUSTRY  D.B.S. CLASS NO.  BOD  NITROGEN  PHOSPHATES  —  — —  —  5.74  0.16  3.15  160.66  0.58  0.03  —  4  7.69  1.02  0.05  Paper  7 .58.55  1.50  1.48  Fabricated Metals  8  2.00  Petro-Chemical  10  Stone and G l a s s  11  Source:  10.06  see text, p. 151.  3.00  PHENOLS  — — —  Food  1.62  SETTLEABLE AND OIL & SUSPENDED GREASE SOLIDS  1.36 -  0.001  17.13 9.21  16.12  0.001  GROSS HEAVY METALS  (TONS/$ MILLION)  FACTOR FOR ADJUSTING COEFFICIENTS FOR CALIFORNIA SO THAT THEY MAY BE APPLIED NATIONALLY  ro  — —  2.06  --  9.52  1.69  1.37  1.22  1.07  the v a r i o u s waterborne wastes.  Such e s t i m a t e s f o r Canada appear  i n T a b l e 7 based upon t h e v a l u e o f i n d u s t r i a l output as r e c o r d e d i n column 5 o f T a b l e 4. c o e f f i c i e n t s were used account  ( I t s h o u l d be noted t h a t t h e a d j u s t e d w i t h o u t any f u r t h e r adjustment  b e i n g made t o  f o r t h e f a c t t h a t t h e y r e l a t e t o 1963 U.S. d o l l a r s which,  i n r e a l terms were 0.18 p e r c e n t more v a l u a b l e than 1961 Canadian dollars.  I t was f e l t t h a t an adjustment  add a n y t h i n g t o t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e f i n a l Having  argued  o f t h i s s c a l e would n o t estimates.)  a t t h e end o f s e c t i o n C . l . b . t h a t t h e e s t i m a t e s - o f  B.O.D. and s e t t l e a b l e and suspended s o l i d s c o n t a i n e d i n t h a t s e c t i o n were underestimates  i t i s s i g n i f i c a n t that the adjusted  coefficients  of  t h e p r e s e n t s e c t i o n a r e s t i l l w e l l below t h e i m p l i e d c o e f f i c i e n t s  of  T a b l e 4.  T h i s l e n d s support t o t h e n o t i o n t h a t a l l t h e e s t i m a t e s  t h a t have been made i n t h i s study o f t h e output o f waterborne wastes from Canadian manufacturing  i n d u s t r y i n 1961 a r e p r o b a b l y  underestimates  o f t h e t r u e magnitudes.  C.2.  THE USE OF WATER IN NON-MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN CANADA, 1961 These i n d u s t r y groups i n c l u d e a g r i c u l t u r e and f o r e s t r y , m i n e r a l i n d u s t r i e s , c o n s t r u c t i o n , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and t r a d e , communications and o t h e r s e r v i c e s .  Because o f t h e l a c k o f d a t a f o r  s e v e r a l o f t h e s e i n d u s t r y groups, a t t e n t i o n w i l l be f o c u s s e d on a g r i c u l t u r e and t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y  generation.  TABLE 7  ;  THE OUTPUT OF SOME WATERBORNE WASTES BY CANADIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, IN 1961  MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY GROUP  D.B.S. CLASS , NO. '  WASTES •-- TONS NITROGEN  PHOSPHATES  Food, Feed, Beverage and Tobacco Industries  5,583.8  273.8  Paper and A l l i e d Industries  3,343.0  3,298.5  Primary Metal and Metal Fabricating Industries  9,861.6  Chemical, Rubber and Petroleum Industries  10  Other Manufacturing Industries ( P r i n c i p a l l y Stone and Glass)  11  17,673.3  66.6  492.7  OIL & GREASE  PHENOLS  GROSS HEAVY METALS  7,445.0  20,526.3  9,700.4  1,786.1  2.2  2.2  5,204.4  C2.a)  THE USE OF WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN CANADA, 1961  (DBS 1) "  Approximately 90.7 m i l l i o n a c r e s o f l a n d were devoted t o c r o p s and summer f a l l o w i n Canada d u r i n g 1961  33  , and l e s s t h a n  34 2 p e r c e n t o f t h i s l a n d was i r r i g a t e d took p l a c e i n A l b e r t a and B r i t i s h Province  C u l t i v a t e d Land (acres)  Alberta British Columbia  .  Nearly a l l o f the i r r i g a t i o n  Columbia: I r r i g a t e d Land (acres)  Per Cent Irrigated  23 m i l l i o n  592,104  3.8  870,000  220,000  27.5  No e s t i m a t e o f t h e amount o f water used f o r i r r i g a t i o n i s p o s s i b l e a l t h o u g h some i d e a o f t h e q u a n t i t y o f water r e q u i r e d f o r crop p r o d u c t i o n may be g a i n e d from M o r r i s ' s statement t h a t , " f o r every pound o f p l a n t produced, s e v e r a l hundred pounds o f water must be made a v a i l a b l e i n t h e s o i l t o be absorbed by t h e r o o t * n 35 system". I t i s p o s s i b l e t o e s t i m a t e t h e consumption o f water by farm a n i m a l s from d a t a g i v e n by  Morris  36  .  The p e r c a p i t a  requirements a r e shown i n T a b l e 8 t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e numbers o f 37 farm a n i m a l s  and t h e i r consumption o f water i n 1961.  The  f i g u r e s g i v e n f o r water r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e averages o f t h e ranges  g i v e n by M o r r i s , except f o r c a t t l e where the upper l i m i t o f the range i s used t o t a k e account o f the extremely o f water by m i l k p r o d u c i n g cows.  h i g h consumption  T a b l e 8 shows t h a t c a t t l e consumed  n e a r l y 80 p e r cent o f a l l water consumed by l i v e s t o c k and p o u l t r y on Canadian farms.  C.2.b)  Hogs accounted  f o r most o f the  remainder.  THE USE OF WATER FOR THE PRODUCTION OF THERMAL ELECTRICITY BY UTILITIES IN CANADA, 1961 (DBS 14) 38 According to Kuiper  i t r e q u i r e d 50 g a l l o n s o f water  t o produce 1 k i l l o w a t t hour (kwh)  o f t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y i n the 3  U n i t e d S t a t e s d u r i n g 1959. puts the requirements p a r t i c u l a r year.  Another e s t i m a t e , by C l a r k and Viessman  a t 80 gallons/kwh  without s p e c i f y i n g  Since n e i t h e r source c i t e s a  any  reference f o r  the d a t a the c h o i c e o f which f i g u r e t o use i s somewhat a r b i t r a r y A s i m p l e average  o f the two,  a f i g u r e o f 54 Imp.  converted to Imperial g a l l o n s gives  gallons/kwh.  I t might be thought,  however,  t h a t s i n c e K u i p e r i s a Canadian academic, h i s d a t a i s a l r e a d y i n units of Imperial gallons. average  I f t h i s i s assumed then a simple  o f t h e f i g u r e s i s 60 Imp"-., gallons/kwh.  In k e e p i n g  the o t h e r e s t i m a t e s o f i n d u s t r i a l water use the f i g u r e o f 54 gallons/kwh  i s used i n the p r e s e n t study so t h a t one may  c o n f i d e n t t h a t the r e s u l t i n g e s t i m a t e s e r r , i f a t a l l , conservative side.  on  be the  with Imp.fairly  TABLE 8  ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF WATER BY CANADIAN LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY IN 1961  POPULATION (1000's)  LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY  Cattle  .  J  1  .11,439.9  Hogs  5,234.9  Sheep  1,272.4  Chickens  TOTAL PER CAPITA WATER CONSUMPTION. (GALLONS)  ;  : 59,254  1,552  .  639 .  17,754,723  3,345,101  310  394,444  16  948,064  TOTAL  Average of June 1st and December 1st populations.  Sources: see t e x t , pp. 155-156.  TOTAL WATER ' CONSUMED (GALLONS)  22.442.332  The Canada Year Book, 1963-64  records that  electrical  u t i l i t i e s produced 89,387,000,000 kwh o f t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y . At a r a t e o f 54 Imp, gallons/kwh t h i s means t h a t i n 1961, 9 e l e c t r i c a l u t i l i t i e s used 4,827x10  Imp. g a l l o n s o f water.  This  water was used almost e x c l u s i v e l y f o r condensing t h e steam and so the d i s c h a r g e d water, though c h e m i c a l l y v e r y s i m i l a r t o t h e water i n t a k e , had a h i g h e r temperature.  This  'hot' d i s c h a r g e  can cause what i s known as 'thermal p o l l u t i o n ' .  C.3.  THE USE OF WATER FOR DOMESTIC PURPOSES AND THE DOMESTIC AND COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION OF WATERBORNE WASTES IN CANADA, 1961 The domestic uses o f water a r e v e r y d i f f e r e n t from t h e i n d u s t r i a l uses d i s c u s s e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n s .  Consequently  the wastes c a r r i e d by domestic e f f l u e n t d i f f e r q u a l i t a t i v e l y as w e l l as q u a n t i t a v e l y from t h e waterborne  wastes o f i n d u s t r y .  For  example, i n d u s t r i a l e f f l u e n t i s much more l i k e l y than domestic e f f l u e n t t o contain r e f r a c t o r y o r g a n i c chemicals that  resist  41 b i o l o g i c a l degredation.  I n t h i s s e c t i o n p r i m a r y concern w i l l  be w i t h t h e e x t e n t and e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e M u n i c i p a l sewage system i n Canada d u r i n g 1961.  I t i s f i t t i n g , therefore, t o begin the  d i s c u s s i o n w i t h a b r i e f account o f t h e type o f waste which everybody  leaves behind.  C.3.a)  HUMAN EXCRETA IN CANADA,  1961  42 E h l e r s and S t e e l  e s t i m a t e the d a i l y volume o f human  e x c r e t a t o be 83 grams o f f e c e s and 970  grams o f u r i n e .  Since  they o f f e r t h e s e as average f i g u r e s without s p e c i f y i n g what they are averages o f i t w i l l be assumed t h a t account has been taken o f the age d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e North American  p o p u l a t i o n . In 43 1961, t h e n , Canada's p o p u l a t i o n o f 18,238,247 people excreted 125,292 t o n s o f s o l i d waste and 1,462,991 tons o f u r i n e . 44 A c c o r d i n g t o E h l e r s and S t e e l  t h e c o m p o s i t i o n o f human  e x c r e t a i n b o t h forms i n c l u d e s l a r g e amounts o f water; some o r g a n i c matter —  about 20 p e r cent o f the f e c e s and 2.5 p e r cent  o f the u r i n e ; and s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s o f n i t r o g e n , p h o s p h o r i c a c i d , s u l p h u r and o t h e r i n o r g a n i c components.  On d i l u t i o n w i t h waste  water t o form sewage the s o l i d c o n t e n t s become a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l .  F o r example, the average  use o f water i n Canada i n 1961  was  household  50 g a l l o n s p e r person p e r  45 day  , o f which more than 90 p e r cent was  d i s p o s a l system.  passed i n t o the sewage  I n d u s t r i a l use o f m u n i c i p a l sewage  facilities  may  be assumed t o have added a p p r o x i m a t e l y another 60-80 g a l l o n s 46 p e r person p e r day and i n those cases where storm water was a l s o c h a n n e l l e d i n t o the m u n i c i p a l sewer system the d i l u t i o n o f the s o l i d s i n human e x c r e t a was  even more thorough.  Ehlers  and  47 Steel  e s t i m a t e t h a t an average sewage has about  800  mg/litre  of solids of which 300 mg/litre i s in suspension and 500 mg/litre is i n solution.  Of the total sewage solids some 50 per cent  w i l l be organic and therefore petruscible. It i s hopeful that these few facts serve to show the dimension of the problem of treating and disposing of Canadian human wastes, specifically for 1961.  THE TREATMENT AND DISPOSAL OF HUMAN WASTES Basically there are two classes of sewage disposal systems: individual and municipal sewage disposal systems.  The former  include a l l systems except those that involve a collection system serving an entire community. Although qualitatively much i s know about the performance 48  of the variety of sewage disposal systems  , the only quantitative  information that i s available i s for municipal sewage disposal systems.  Estimates of the discharge of water borne wastes from  the Canadian municipal sewage system in 1961 are given i n the next section of this study. A l l that can be said about the waste produced by the unsewered Canadian population in 1961 is that these were largely disposed of via cesspools and septic tanks.  It should be noted that neither of these individual  systems purify sewage. They rely on biological decomposition  o f t h e wastes which o p e r a t e s are not o v e r l o a d e d . and  e f f e c t i v e l y o n l y i f t h e systems  The d i s t a s t e f u l t a s k o f l o o k i n g a f t e r  cesspools  s e p t i c tanks makes o v e r l o a d i n g a r e a l p o s s i b i l i t y and t h e  problems t h a t a r i s e from such o v e r l o a d i n g a r e w e l l documented i n the s a n i t a r y science  C.3.c)  literature  AN ESTIMATION OF THE MUNICIPAL DISCHARGE OF WASTES INTO CANADIAN WATERS, 1961 (DBS 14) Weinberger, Stephan and M i d d l e t o n ^  0  estimated  the m u n i c i p a l  d i s c h a r g e s o f b i o c h e m i c a l oxygen demand (BOD), n i t r o g e n , phosphorous and r e f r a c t o r y o r g a n i c s i n t o U n i t e d S t a t e s streams.  The e s t i m a t i n g  procedure used f o r t h e Canadian e s t i m a t e s and much o f t h e r e l e v a n t d a t a a r e taken  from Weinberger e t a l . The r e s u l t s a r e r e c o r d e d  i n T a b l e 9 which shows t h e o u t f l o w o f t h e s e f o u r c l a s s e s o f wastes p l u s s e t t l e a b l e and suspended s o l i d s and o i l and grease i n t o Canadian waters d u r i n g 1961, c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o Province.  The g e n e r a l p i c t u r e p r o v i d e d by t h e d a t a i n T a b l e 9  i s t h a t Quebec and O n t a r i o combined produced more than h a l f o f the output  o f each type o f waste.  F o r the remainder, t h e Western  P r o v i n c e s produced more waste than t h e E a s t e r n P r o v i n c e s .  It  i s i n t e r e s t i n g t h a t even though t h e p o p u l a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y o f O n t a r i o exceeds those o f Quebec ( s e e T a b l e s 34 and 59) the output o f a l l waterborne wastes, except n i t r o g e n and  TONNAGE OF WASTES DISCHARGED INTO CANADIAN WATERS DURING 1961 VIA MUNICIPAL SEWER SYSTEMS  PROVINCE  BIOCHEMICAL . OXYGEN . DEMAND (BOD)  NITROGEN  CHEMICAL OXYGEN '•• . REFRACTORY DEMAND . ORGANICS (BOD + RO) (RO) PHOSPHOROUS  SETTLEABLE AND SUSPENDED SOLIDS  OIL AND GREASE  NEWF.  5,805.3  924.1  .151.0  1,969.6  7,774.9  4,667.3  579.0  P.E.I.  1,362.0  213.0  34.5  456.0  1,818.0  1,095.0  136.5  N.S.  13,438.4  2,101.6  340.4  4,499.2  17,937.6  10,804.0  1,346.8  N.B.  8,636.4  1,353.0  219.4  2,896.5  11,532.9  6,927.3  859.0  QUE.  105,772.7  16,696.1  2,719.6  35,717.3  141,490.0  84,136.9  10,300.8  ONT.  62,119.5  17,776.4  3,434.6  33,414.0  95,553.5  34,618.8  2,692.0  MAN.  20,168.2  3,918.2  716.1  8,867.6  29,035.8  9,960.7  —  SASK.  9,889.1  2,035.0  377.0  4,882.4  14,771.5  5,469.0  155.0  ALTA.  13,434.2  3,307.5  644.3  6,650.9  20,085.1  7,345.4  97.8  B.C.  29,797.4  .4,858.2  804.9  10,143.7  39,941.1  32,160.6  2,767.5  270,423.2  52,683.0  9,441.9  108,997.3  379,420.5  197,185.0  18,934.6  CANADA  Sources:  see text, pp. 161-174.  phosphorous, was g r e a t e r i n Quebec than i n O n t a r i o . r e f l e c t s t h e more comprehensive sewage treatment  This  t h a t was  undertaken i n O n t a r i o . The  information r e q u i r e d f o r the estimates  i n c l u d e t h e number o f people people  o f Table 9  s e r v e d by sewers, t h e number o f  s e r v e d by t h e v a r i o u s methods o f t r e a t m e n t , t h e  performance o f t h e d i f f e r e n t sewage treatment  methods and  the p e r c a p i t a p r o d u c t i o n o f each type o f waste. for  T h i s data  Canada i n 1961, c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o P r o v i n c e , was  gathered  from f o u r s o u r c e s .  The February  1961 e d i t i o n o f  M u n i c i p a l U t i l i t i e s " g i v e s a summary o f Canadian sewage works s t a t i s t i c s f o r 1960, as reproduced  i n T a b l e 10.  In t h i s study  i t is  assumed t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n s e r v e d by sewers i n 1961 was v i r t u a l l y t h e same as i n 1960.  ( I t c o u l d not be assumed  t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n s were i d e n t i c a l s i n c e i n c o n t r a s t t o a l l the o t h e r P r o v i n c e s t h e t o t a l sewered p o p u l a t i o n i n Manitoba i n 1960 was l e s s than t h e e s t i m a t e d p o p u l a t i o n s e r v e d by sewage treatment  p l a n t s i n Manitoba i n 1961.  The d i f f e r e n c e i n these  f i g u r e s was added t o t h e 1960 p o p u l a t i o n f i g u r e o f 9,059,000 to  a r r i v e a t an e s t i m a t e o f t h e t o t a l sewered p o p u l a t i o n i n  Canada d u r i n g 1961 o f 9,278,900). people  Data f o r t h e number o f  s e r v e d by t h e v a r i o u s methods o f treatment  were  d i s t i l l e d from i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e m i n i c i p a l sewage p l a n t s i n Canada t h a t s e r v e d a t l e a s t 1,000 people  treatment  i n 1961, g i v e n  CANADIAN SEWERAGE WORKS STATISTICS, 1960  -POPULATION SYSTEMS SERVED  PROVINCE  % OF TOTAL POPULATION SERVED  TOTAL NO. OF PLANTS  6  8  12  0  2  5  42  14  22  2  4  32.1  2  1  1  0  0  133,000  29.3  1  1  o  0  0  39  296,000  41.2  2  . 1  0  1  0  246  3,775,000  62.5  263  153  82  23  6  30,000  29.1  3  0  3  0  o  292  2,380,000  46.9  77  74  0  1  2  70  376,000  41.4  \ 66  10  47  4  5  9,059,000  51.2  683  346  192  98  47_  683,000  54.0  208  53  720,000  45.1  19  Manitoba  64  475,000  53.1  New  30  191,000  Newfoundland  23  Nova S c o t i a  British  Columbia  Brunswick  .  Ontario P r i n c e Edward Quebec Saskatchewan  Island  TRICKLING FILTER PLANTS  114  187  Alberta  SEWAGE-TREATMENT INSTALLATIONS SEWAGE PARTIAL PONDS ACTIVATED TREATMENT OR SLUDGE PLANTS LAGOONS PLANTS  80 .  ' -' 5 . '  r CANADA  1010  in Municipal U t i l i t i e s  . Since the peformance of the various 53  sewage treatment methods, taken from Weinberger et a l .  and  54 Lesperance  are given only for the broad categories of primary  and secondary treatment methods (see Table 11), i t was necessary to apply this classification to each individual sewage plant that was in operation in Canada during 1961. In many cases the treatment plants were described in Municipal Utilities  as either primary, or secondary treatment plants.  In other cases the nature of the plant was clear from the description.  For example, a l l plants using only sewage ponds  or lagoons are primary plants whereas those that employ either the activated sludge or trickling f i l t e r methods are secondary plants.  However, some plants were described in terms that are  unfamiliar to a l l but the sewage specialist, making the classification into primary or secondary rather d i f f i c u l t .  Each  borderline case is reported below to indicate the precise system of classification used in this study.  It is noteworthy that  the 15 or so cases are sc insignificant in terms of the total sewage treated in 1961 that a reclassification of these plants would- have only a very small effect on the final estimates, (in 1961 there were 337 sewage plants that served more than 1,000 people).  TABLE 11  APPROXIMATE PERFORMANCE OF CONVENTIONAL TREATMENTS OF MUNICIPAL WASTES  PROPORTION OF WASTE REMAINING AFTER TREATMENT  W A S T E  Primary .Biochemical Oxygen Demand . , , ,.,.; :  Chemical Oxygen Demand .  Refractory  Suspended  .65  ' •. fr/'  .1  .7  '  '  Organics  .2  .4  Solids  Total Nitrogen  .' .4  ': '••  ;  V  T o t a l Phosphorous*  Dissolved  . '  Secondary  Minerals  O i l and Grease  Source: see text, p. 165.  .1  .8 .'•  .5  ".'V:'. .' .9  .7  1.0  0.0  ;  .95  0.0  THE CLASSIFICATION OF SEWAGE TREATMENT METHODS AS USED TO ESTIMATE THE OUTFLOW OF POLLUTANTS FROM MUNICIPAL TREATMENT PLANTS IN CANADA, 1961 Primary Treatment  Methods  (1)  Imhoff tanks  (2)  Septic  (3)  Ponding w i t h o v e r f l o w t o r i v e r  (4)  Lagoons  (5)  Lagoons w i t h primary and secondary  (6)  Anearobic  (7)  Submerged c o n t a c t a e r a t i o n p l a n t s  (fi)  S e d i m e n t a t i o n and s e p a r a t e s l u d g e d i g e s t i o n systems  (9)  C u t t i n g metering p l a n t with  tanks  cells  pits  barmunitor  (10) '  C o n t a c t beds and s e d i m e n t a t i o n w i t h s e p a r a t e s l u d g e d i g e s t i o n systems  (11)  Coarse b a r s c r e e n , d e t r i t o r s , b a r m u n i t o r s , c l a r i f i e r s , sludge t h i c k e n e r s , d i g e s t o r s , holding tanks, d r y i n g beds  (12)  Communitors f o r normal f l o w and b a r s c r e e n f o r storm water f l o w , f o l l o w e d by a i r - d e g r i t t e r two s t a g e f i l t r a t i o n f o l l o w e d by treatment i n o x i d a t i o n ponds  Secondary  Treatment  Methods  (1)  S i n g l e stage b i o f i l t r a t i o n p l a n t  (2)  Imhoff tank and b i o f i l t e r  (3)  Mechanical a e r a t i o n p l a n t  (4)  S e d i m e n t a t i o n and s p r i n k l i n g  (5)  S c r e e n i n g , g r i t removal, p r e - a e r a t i o n , p r i m a r y a e r a t i o n and f i n a l s e t t l i n g .  filters settling  A f u r t h e r problem which a r o s e was whether o r n o t t o i n c l u d e p l a n t s t h a t were e i t h e r planned o r under c o n s t r u c t i o n i n 1961.  I t was d e c i d e d t o i n c l u d e o n l y those p l a n t s t h a t  were i n o p e r a t i o n by t h e end o f 1961.  B e a r i n g i n mind t h a t  t h e s e d a t a a r e t o be used i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h an i n p u t - o u t p u t model i t i s c l e a r t h a t t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r sewage p r o d u c t i o n must undergo a p p r o p r i a t e r e v i s i o n i f the model i s t o be a p p l i e d e f f e c t i v e l y t o y e a r s o t h e r than 1961.  The p l a n t s t h a t were  problematic include the f o l l o w i n g : (a)  A p r i m a r y treatment p l a n t planned f o r C o l l i n g w o o d , O n t a r i o t h a t w i l l s e r v e 8,300 p e o p l e  (b)  A p r i m a r y treatment p l a n t s e r v i n g 69,950 p e o p l e a t K i t c h e n e r , O n t a r i o ;that was t o be c o n v e r t e d t o secondary treatment i n 1962.  (c)  A secondary treatment p l a n t planned f o r P r e s t o n , O n t a r i o t h a t w i l l s e r v e 10,600 p e o p l e .  (d)  A p r i m a r y treatment p l a n t under c o n s t r u c t i o n i n S a u l t S a i n t M a r i e , O n t a r i o t h a t w i l l s e r v e 40,600 p e o p l e .  (e)  Three p r i m a r y treatment p l a n t s under c o n s t r u c t i o n i n Vancouver, B.C. s e r v i n g 670,000 p e o p l e . In  two m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , where t h e summer p o p u l a t i o n d i f f e r e d  s i g n i f i c a n t l y from t h e w i n t e r p o p u l a t i o n , t h e s m a l l e r w i n t e r p o p u l a t i o n s were used f o r t h e e s t i m a t e s .  The e f f e c t o f t h i s on  t h e f i n a l e s t i m a t e s i s n e g l i g i b l e s i n c e t h e numbers are  so s m a l l .  concerned  One f i n a l c o m p l i c a t i o n a r o s e i n those cases  where a treatment p l a n t was s e r v i n g a p o p u l a t i o n f a r i n excess  o f t h a t f o r which i t was  designed.  T h i s o b v i o u s l y lowers  t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e p l a n t s but f o r t h e purposes  o f the  e s t i m a t e s t h i s was n o t a l l o w e d f o r , p a r t l y because t h e cases were so few, and p a r t l y because no d a t a e x i s t  f o r the  e f f i c i e n c y o f o v e r l o a d e d sewage p l a n t s . On t h e b a s i s o f t h e f o r e g o i n g c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f sewage treatment methods i t was p o s s i b l e t o e s t i m a t e t h e p o p u l a t i o n s i n each P r o v i n c e t h a t were s e r v e d by primary and treatment  secondary  p l a n t s i n 1961. These e s t i m a t e s , t o g e t h e r w i t h  e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n s e r v e d o n l y by sewers a r e r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e 12.  T a b l e 12 shows, f o r example, t h a t 683,000 people  were s e r v e d by sewers i n A l b e r t a , d u r i n g 1961; t h a t i s , 7 . 4 p e r cent o f the A l b e r t a population.  Of t h e s e , t h e sewage from  21,500  p e o p l e , o r 3.1 p e r cent o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n s e r v e d by sewers, was not t r e a t e d i n any way.  The sewage produced  r e c e i v e d p r i m a r y treatment  by 378,650 A l b e r t a n s  and t h a t o f a f u r t h e r 282,850 p e o p l e  i n t h e P r o v i n c e a l s o underwent secondary  treatment.  Ontario  p r o v i d e d a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f i t s p o p u l a t i o n w i t h sewers than any o t h e r P r o v i n c e .  A l s o secondary  treatment was used f a r more  e x t e n s i v e l y i n O n t a r i o than i n any o t h e r P r o v i n c e . With t h e e x c e p t i o n o f grease removal, d a t a f o r t h e performance o f p r i m a r y and secondary  treatment  o f m u n i c i p a l wastes were taken  THE EXTENT OF SEWERS AND SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANTS IN CANADA, 1961  PROVINCE  POPN. SERVED BY SEWERS (SP +SP +SP ) n p s  % AGE PROV. TOTAL  POPULATION SERVED BY NO TREATMENT (SP )  n  p  % AGE PROV. TOTAL  TOTAL  282,850  41.4  100  84.4  67,100  9.3  44,650  6.2  100  681,350  98.2  13,550  2.0  100  98.9  2,200  1.1  —  0  100  127,300  95.7  0  5,700  4.3  100  3.2  296,000  100.0  — —  0  —  0  100  3,775,000  40.6  591,650  15.7  2,350,100  62.3  100  30,000  0.3  30,000  2,380,000  25.7  2,263,900  95.1  98,700  4.1  376,000  4.1  34,060  9.1  271,940  9^278,000  100.0  4,161^460  44.9  2,333,190  21,500  B.C.  720,000  7.8  608,250  MAN.  694,000  7.5  N.B.  191,000  2.1  188,800  NEWF.  133,999  1.4  N.S.  296,000  ONT.  ALL CANADA  POPN. SERVED T3Y SECONDARY TREATMENT (SP )  55.4  7.4  SASK.  p  % AGE PROV. TOTAL  378,650  683,000  QUE.  POPN. SERVED BY PRIMARY TREATMENT (SP )  3.1  ALTA.  P.E.I.  % AGE PROV. TOTAL  —  ..  0  0  833,250  —  22.1  —  0  100  17,400  0.7  100  72.3  70,000  18.6  100  25.2  2,784,250  3.0  100  0  from Weinberger  et a l .  and i s reproduced i n T a b l e 11.  p r e c i s e e s t i m a t e f o r the e f f i c i e n c y o f o i l and grease  No removal  56 c o u l d be found though Lesperance  suggests t h a t p r i m a r y  treatment removes a l l o i l s and g r e a s e s .  Weinberger  et a l .  p r o v i d e d the s o u r c e f o r t h e e s t i m a t e d p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e v a r i o u s c o n s t i t u e n t s o f sewage, except f o r s e t t l e a b l e  and  57 suspended s o l i d s which came from "The Cost o f C l e a n Water", and o i l and grease which came from t h e Report on the Economic 58 E v a l u a t i o n o f Water Q u a l i t y  . I t was  assumed t h a t a l l t h e s e r a t e s  would be the same f o r Canada and the U n i t e d S t a t e s i n  1961.  These e s t i m a t e s a r e as f o l l o w s : (1)  The annual domestic BOD c o n t r i b u t i o n } BOD,is assumed t o be61 l b s / c a p i t a / y e a r . To account f o r the i n d u s t r i a l wastes handled i n m u n i c i p a l sewage a r a t i o p e r c a p i t a of i n d u s t r i a l p l u s ' d o m e s t i c BOD' t o 'domestic BOD i s used, t h e v a l u e o f which i s e s t i m a t e d f o r 1961 as 1.49-  (2)  ghe amount o f n i t r o g e n p e r c a p i t a i n raw m u n i c i p a l sewage, TN, f o r 1961 i s e s t i m a t e d . t o be 1 4 . 2 1 b s / c a p i t a / y e a r .  (3)  The amount o f phosphorous p e r c a p i t a i n raw m u n i c i p a l sewage, P, f o r 1961 i s e s t i m a t e d t o be 2 . 3 1 b s / c a p i t a / year.  (4)  R e f r a c t o r y o r g a n i c s a r e taken t o be the d i f f e r e n c e between c h e m i c a l oxygen demand and b i o c h e m i c a l oxygen demand. That i s , 3 5 0 m g / l i t r e COD l e s s 2 5 0 m g / l i t r e BOD e q u a l s l O O m g / l i t r e RO.  Assuming  a d a i l y p e r c a p i t a m i n i c i p a l waste f l o w o f 117  Imperial g a l l o n s , the annual r e f r a c t o r y o r g a n i c s PRO  = 30. l i b s / c a p i t a / y e a r .  ( T h i s f i g u r e o f 117  g a l l o n s i s e q u a l t o t h e 140 U.S.  contribution, Imperial  g a l l o n s used i n Weinberger  59 et a l .  They do n o t c i t e a r e f e r e n c e f o r t h i s f i g u r e and a r e  c o n t e n t t o assume i t unchanged  over time.  S i n c e no independent  e s t i m a t e f o r Canada i s a v a i l a b l e t h e same f i g u r e i s used i n the present study. may  To put i t i n p e r s p e c t i v e ,  however, i t  be n o t e d t h a t i t i s somewhat l e s s than t h e weighted average,  by p o p u l a t i o n , o f water used i n t h e f i v e l a r g e s t c i t i e s during  Canadian  1965^).  The assumed e f f i c i e n c i e s o f sewage treatment i n removing r e f r a c t o r y o r g a n i c s from waste water were based on t h e f o l l o w i n g e s t i m a t e s o f BOD secondary  and COD  i n raw sewage, p r i m a r y and  effluent. Concentration  (mg/litre)  Pollutant  Raw  Primary  COD  350  240  65  BOD  250  160  25  RO  100  80  40  Secondary  (5)  The amount o f s e t t l e a b l e and suspended s o l i d s p e r c a p i t a i n raw m u n i c i p a l sewage, *SS, f o r 1961 i s e s t i m a t e d t o be 7 3 1 b s / c a p i t a / y e a r .  (6)  T,he amount o f o i l and grease i n raw m u n i c i p a l sewage, OG, i s assumed t o be 9«1 l b s / c a p i t a / y e a r f o r 1961.  F o l l o w i n g Weinberger  ejt a l . some symbols a r e o f u s e :  2 SP^ = sewered p o p u l a t i o n r e c e i v i n g treatment  i i n P r o v i n c e Z.  When i = n, treatment i s 'no treatment'. When i = p , treatment i s 'primary'. When i = s , treatment i s 'secondary'. f ^  = p r o p o r t i o n o f waste j r e m a i n i n g a f t e r treatment i  Where j = BOD, TN ( t o t a l n i t r o g e n ) , P (phosphorous), RO ( r e f r a c t o r y o r g a n i c s ) , SS ( s e t t l e a b l e and suspended s o l i d s ) , OG ( o i l and grease) Pj = pounds o f wate j , p e r c a p i t a / y e a r i n raw sewage. The d i s c h a r g e o f wastes by m u n i c i p a l i t i e s  i n t o Canadian  waters  i n 1961 i s e s t i m a t e d f o r each P r o v i n c e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e f o r m u l a : Pounds o f waste j i n t r o d u c e d i n t o Canadian waters Z, W.  3  W.  3z  Z  i n Province  i s g i v e n by:-  = P. ( S P f . + S P f . + S P f .) 3 n n] p p] s s] Z  z  W. — P. E SP, f . . 32 3 j i 13  Z  Z  /. * d = n,p,s.)  (1)  /\ (2)  I f t h i s i s summed over a l l P r o v i n c e s t h e pounds o f waste j , W. i n t r o d u c e d i n t o a l l Canadian waters i s c a l c u l a t e d : 3  W. a z P. 3 z 3  Z SP f . . . i i Z  ( i = n,p,s,)  3  (  ( z = each  These formulas  3  )  Province)  were used f o r the e s t i m a t e s r e c o r d e d  i n Table  9, a f t e r c o n v e r s i o n t o t o n s .  D.  THE PRODUCTION OF WASTES BY LIVESTOCK AND 1961 (DBS 1)  POULTRY IN CANADA,  I t i s commonly thought t h a t animal wastes can be by l a n d t h a t i s used t o support  the animals  a n y t h i n g , the l a n d improves as a r e s u l t . growing concern populated  absorbed  and t h a t , i f  However, t h e r e i s  about the r u n o f f from areas t h a t a r e h e a v i l y  by l i v e s t o c k and p o u l t r y , p a r t i c u l a r l y f e e d l o t s .  T a b l e s 13 show 14 e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f wastes by Canadian l i v e s t o c k and p o u l t r y i n 1961 Province.  The  classified  by  p o p u l a t i o n f i g u r e s a r e averages o f the June 1 s t  and  December 1 s t p o p u l a t i o n s as g i v e n by t h e Dominion Bureau o f Statistics  A l l waste f a c t o r s i n t o n s / c a p i t a / y e a r  except  f o r geese a r e d e r i v e d from t h e d a t a g i v e n i n C l e a n i n g  Our  61 Environment  f o r U n i t e d S t a t e s l i v e s t o c k and p o u l t r y .  Geese  are assumed t o produce the same q u a n t i t y o f waste p e r c a p i t a as  :  PROVINCIAL PRODUCTION OF WASTES BY LIVESTOCK ON CANADIAN FARMS, 1961  CATTLE (1,000) c  SWJ  v x vi \J i-i  NEWF.  ANNUAL WASTE PRODUCTION (1,000 TONS) SOLID LIQUID  7.0  7  3  HOGS (1,000)  ANNUAL WASTE PRODUCTION (1,000 TONS) SOLID LIQUID  1.5 .  2  1  SHEEP (1,000)  ANNUAL WASTE PRODUCTION (1,000 TONS) SOLID LIQUID  HORSES (1,000)  ANNUAL WASTE PRODUCTION (1,000 TONS) SOLID LIQUID  15.3  7  4  1.1  6  2  8  5  7.8  45  12  P.E.I.  117.8  1,107  436  53.5  59  34  18  N.S.  160.1  1,505  592  49.2  54  31  • 49.8  22  13  8.8  51  13  N.B.  152.1  1,430  563  47.1  52  30  .28.4  13  8  9.1  53  14  QUE.  1,820.1  17,109  6,734  902.1  992  577  150.4  68  41  95.7  555  144  ONT.  3,156.8  29,674  11,680  1,657.2  1,823  1,061  283.6  128  77  88  510  132  MAN.  938.3  8,820  3,472  418.3  460  268  62;7  28  17  48.9  284  73  SASK.  1,953.1  18,359  7,226  605.4  666  387  152.5  69  41  107.2  .622  161  ALTA.  2,689.7  25,283  9,952  1,460.0  1,606  934  418.5  188  113  112.1  650  168  444.4  4,177  1,644  40.8  45  26  81.9  37  22  139  36  —  —  —  —  —  —  5,759  3,349  1,272.4  568  341  503  1.1  0.64  SHEEP  0.45  0.27  HORSES  B.C. YUKON & N.W.T. CANADA  WASTE: TONS, p e r CAPITA, p e r YEAR  —  —  —  —.  •—  24  —•  -  11,439.9  CATTLE  107,471  9.4  42,302  3,7  5,234.9  HOGS  2,915  755  5.8  1.5  PROVINCIAL PRODUCTION OF WASTES BY  PROVINCE  NEWF.  CHICKENS (1,000)  n.a.  ANNUAL WASTE PRODUCTION (1,000 TONS) SOLID LIQUID n.a.  n. a.  TURKEYS (1,000)  n.a.  POULTRY ON CANADIAN FARMS, 1961  ANNUAL WASTE GEESE PRODUCTION (1,000) (1,000 TONS) LIQUID SOLID n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  ANNUAL WASTE PRODUCTION (1,000 TONS) SOLID LIQUID n.a.  n.a.  3.3  —  —  —  —  1.1  —  —  —  —  1.0  —  —  2  —  56.8  9  —  70.5  13  —  136.1  20  —  29  —  10.8  2  —  5.4  N.S.  1,970  138  —  37.2  7  —  1.8  N.B.  910  64  —  36.9  7  —  1.8  QUE.  11,927.5  834  —  668.5  120  —  9.2  ONT.  22,026.5 1,542  —  2,322.5  418  —  1  n.a.  DUCKS (1,000)  —  419  P.E.I.  ANNUAL WASTE PRODUCTION (1,000 TONS) SOLID LIQUID  MAN.  4,983.5  349  —  747.4  134  —  72.1  13  —  27.1  4  —  SASK.  4,932.5  345  —  767.4  138  —  34.8  6  —  40.4  6  —  ALTA.  6,942.5  486  —  777  140  —  77.4  14  —  71.7  11  —  B.C.  5,142.5  360  —  386.3  70  —  8.8  2  —  22.5  3  —  4.147  —  5.753.9  1.036  —  281.7  JI  —  359.7  TURKEYS  0.18  GEESE  0.18  YUKON & N.W.T. CANADA  59.254  WASTE: TONS per CAPITA per YEAR CHICKENS  0.07  n.a. = not available Sources: see text. pp. 174-177 and p. 316. footnote 37.  DUCKS  —  0.15  turkeys.  As T a b l e s 13 and 14 show, t h e annual waste  p r o d u c t i o n from c a t t l e i s by f a r t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t . T h i s i s e x p l a i n e d by t h e r e l i t a v e l y l a r g e c a t t l e  population  as w e l l as t h e h i g h p e r c a p i t a output  Ontario,  o f waste.  h a v i n g t h e most c a t t l e , produced, i n 1961, more a n i m a l and poultry  waste than any o t h e r P r o v i n c e : more t h a n 34,000 tons  o f s o l i d waste and n e a r l y 13,000 tons o f l i q u i d waste. These f i g u r e s , t o g e t h e r w i t h e q u i v a l e n t d a t a f o r each P r o v i n c e , appear i n T a b l e 16.  T a b l e 15 shows t h e P r o v i n c i a l  d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l i v e s t o c k and p o u l t r y i n 1961. of c a t t l e i n four Provinces: and  The c o n c e n t r a t i o n  O n t a r i o . A l b e r t a , Saskatchewan  Quebec e x p l a i n t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f a n i m a l and p o u l t r y wastes  i n these Provinces.  ,  C l e a n i n g Our Environment a l s o r e p o r t s t h a t , on t h e b a s i s o f t h e f i v e - d a y BOD t e s t , a f e e d l o t w i t h 1 ,000 c a t t l e i s e q u i v a l e n t t o a c i t y o f 45,000 p e o p l e , problem.  Although  and p r e s e n t s a s e v e r e d i s p o s a l  b i o l o g i c a l treatments  have been i n t r o d u c e d  i n t o some U n i t e d S t a t e s farms ( s e p a r a t e Canadian d a t a i s u n a v a i l a b l e ) , d i s p o s a l on l a n d remains more economical f o r a n i m a l wastes. BOD c o n t e n t  The p r o b l e m s i n v o l v e d  o f these wastes.  come from t h e h i g h  THE DISTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY BY PROVINCE, 1961 PER CENT OF LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY IN EACH PROVINCE PROVINCE  —  Newfoundland P r i n c e Edward  HOGS  CATTLE  Island  lib ;  —  •  SHEEP  0  CHICKENS  TURKEYS  GEESE  DUCKS  —  —  —  —  —  1.4  i.ty  0.7  0 .2 "  1 .9  0 .9  •  1  HORSES  Nova S c o t i a  1-A  0.9  ; 3.9  1.7  3.3  0 .6  0 .6  0 .3  New Brunswick  .1.3  0.9  2.2  1.8  1.5  0 .6  0 .6  0 .3  Quebec  15.9  17.2  11.8  19.0  20.1  11 .6  3 .3  15 .8  Ontario  27.6  31.6  22.3  17.5  37.2  40 .4  25 .0  37 .8  8.2  8.0  4.9  9.7  8.4  13 .0  25 .6  7 .5  Saskatchewan  17.1  11.6  12.0  21.3  8.3  13 .3  12 .3  11 .2  Alberta  23.5  27.9  32.9  . 22.3  11.7  13 .5  27 .4  19 .9  3.9  0.8  6.4  4.8  8.7  6 .7  3 .1  6 .2  100.0  100.0  100.0  100.0  100.0  100 .0  100 .0  100 .0  Manitoba  British  Columbia  CANADA  \  THE DISTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY WASTE BY PROVINCE, 1961  SOLID PROVINCE  WASTE  (1,000 TONS)  Newfoundland  PER CENT  22  P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d .  LIQUID  —  \- .1,251  WASTE  (1,000 TONS)  10  PER CENT  —  1.0.  487  1.0  Nova S c o t i a  1,777  1.5  649  1.4  New  1,619 .  •1.3  615  1.3  16.1  7,496  16.0  28.0  12,950  27.7  8.3  3,830  8.2  16.6  7,815  16.7  Brunswick  Quebec  ,  19,689  Ontario  34,128  Manitoba  10,092  Saskatchewan  20,21.1  Alberta  28,378  23.3  11,167  23.9  4,833  4.0  1,728  3.7  122,000  100.0  46^747  100.0  British  Columbia  CANADA  :  .  E.l.  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN CANADA, 1961 I t i s w e l l known t h a t t h e atmosphere s e r v e s two p r i n c i p a l functions with respect t o i n d u s t r i a l Apart  production.  from d i r e c t l y s u p p l y i n g a l l animals w i t h t h e b r e a t h o f l i f e  the atmosphere p r o v i d e s a v a r i e t y o f gasses which a r e e s s e n t i a l f o r i n d u s t r i a l / p r o c e s s e s ; t h e most o b v i o u s o f these b e i n g t h e oxygen r e q u i r e d f o r t h e combustion o f f o s s i l  fuels.  In a second, though n o t e n t i r e l y s e p a r a t e r o l e , t h e atmosphere r e c e i v e s t h e v a r i o u s a i r b o r n e wastes o f i n d u s t r y and h e l p s d i s p e r s e and break down these wastes. and  The type  q u a n t i t y o f a i r b o r n e wastes r e c e i v e d by t h e atmosphere  a f f e c t s t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e atmosphere t o s u p p l y and  i n d u s t r y with the inputs  animals  t h a t they r e q u i r e .  A l t h o u g h i t would be o f g r e a t i n t e r e s t t o develop q u a n t i t a t i v e estimates  o f t h e d i f f e r e n t atmospheric i n p u t s  economic a c t i v i t y i t has proven i m p o s s i b l e t o do t h i s . the o n l y f a c t which came t o l i g h t currently the  into  Virtually  i n a l o n g s e a r c h was t h a t  U n i t e d S t a t e s consumes 40 p e r cent more oxygen 62  each y e a r than i t s own v e g e t a t i o n produces  .  In c o n t r a s t  t o t h i s p a u c i t y o f f a c t about i n p u t s from t h e atmosphere some f a i r l y d e t a i l e d e s t i m a t e s  o f t h e a i r b o r n e wastes r e c e i v e d  by t h e atmosphere i n Canada, d u r i n g 1961, have been p o s s i b l e .  Most o f t h i s d a t a comes from t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e type q u a n t i t y o f f u e l s used f o r i n d u s t r i a l and domestic  and  purposes.  Where p o s s i b l e t h i s d a t a had been supplemented by  additional  i n f o r m a t i o n about p r o c e s s wastes, t h a t i s wastes caused i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y e x c l u s i v e o f f u e l consumption.  by  This  s e c t i o n , then,-begins w i t h s e p a r a t e d i s c u s s i o n s o f a i r b o r n e wastes from f u e l consumption i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g  industries,  mineral industries, u t i l i t i e s , private residences, o p e r a t i o n s , Government and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .  commercial  After this  e m i s s i o n o f p r o c e s s wastes w i l l be examined.  the  The s e c t i o n  will  be concluded w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n o f a i r b o r n e wastes from M u n i c i p a l d i s p o s a l o f s o l i d wastes.  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE BY CANADIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY, 1961  COMBUSTION OF FUELS (DBS 4-11)  The G e n e r a l Review o f M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s o f Canada 63 f o r 1963  i n c l u d e s an account o f t h e f u e l s used by  such  i n d u s t r i e s c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o i n d u s t r y and P r o v i n c e .  The  e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s which were a p p l i e d t o t h i s d a t a and a l s o t o d a t a r e l a t i n g t o f u e l consumption by some o f the i n d u s t r i e s a r e shown i n T a b l e 17.  Seven t y p e s o f m i n e r a l f u e l  and t e n t y p e s o f a i r b o r n e waste are d e f i n e d . produces  non-manufacturing  No s i n g l e  fuel  each t y p e o f waste though r e s i d u a l f u e l o i l produces  EMISSION FACTORS USED TO ESTIMATE THE AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE COMBUSTION OF FUELS BY CANADIAN INDUSTRIES; 1961.  F U E L  GAS  UNITS  N0  lbs/1,000,000  so  2  214  2  so  PART.  18  0.4  cu. f t.  --•  CO  3  ALDE.  2  AMMONIA  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  20  OTHER ORGANICS  5  >  GASOLINE  lbs/1,000 G a l s .  135.6  10.8  FUEL OIL (Residual) FUEL OIL (Distillate)  lbs/l,000 Gals.  86.4  280.6  lbs/1,000 G a l s .  86.4  C O A L  lbs/Ton  ANTHRACITE  lbs/Ton  WOOD  lbs/Cord  ft  2760  14.4  4.8  —  240  105.6  4.8  H 0 N 1  4  2.4  2.76  2.4  9.5  2.4  .01  56.5  0.8  2.4  1.8  2.4  ——  2.4  .01  20  76  —  3  140  .005  2  1  . 15  20  22.8  —  3  140  .005  2  1  •15  —  —  83  —  3.6  0.53  •  1.8  —  2.8  nine.  The factors are not really comparable among the different  fuels since a variety of units are employed.  (One method of  comparison that i s feasible, though not undertaken here, i s to use the calorific value of the fuels in the emission factors in place of cubic feet, in the case of natural gas, gallons, in the case of gasoline and so on). Owing to a lack of emission factors for some of the fuels 61 i t was necessary to use the factors for coal, given by Duprey for a l l coals and coke, except anthracite, and the factors for natural gas from Duprey for a l l gases.  The alternative was  to assume that combustion of these fuels gives no wastes which seemed more unsatisfactory than the chosen generalization, especially since the consumption- of these fuels was relatively low. The estimates for airborne wastes from fuel combustion by manufacturing industry are recorded in Table 18.  Owing  to the high degree of aggregation used in compiling the data of Table 18, each industry group i s large enough to be a significant producer of airborne wastes. Particularly important i s the paper and allied industries group which accounted for approximately 25  per cent of the total output of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and  30 per cent of the output of both sulphur dioxide (S0_) and  AIRBORNE WASTES FROM FUEL CONSUMPTION BY CANADIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY, 1961  AIRBORNE WASTES INPUT/ 1963 CENSUS OUTPUT CLASS NO. NO.  INDUSTRY GROUP  FOOD, FEED, BEVER.AGE AND TOBACCO  2  7+28  NO  SO,  (TONS)  SO,  CO  PART.  ALDE.  AMMONIA  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGNS  .4  17,173  34,545  223  64,515  40,082  295  1,471  5,977  2,462  152  5  6,231  16,435  98  3,186  20,273  81  635  462  124  10  52  222  1,302  549  43  312  83  TEXTILES  30+31+32+33  WOOD AND FURNITURE  34+35  2,673  3,285  26  14,932  3,084  36  39,562  104,000  486  7,524  145,494  PRIMARY METAL METAL FABRICATING  38+39+40  30,419  73,521  384  15,414  104,021  342  3,071  2,201  602  92  TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC EQUIPMENT  41+42  9,835  25,686  81  9,443  41,950  83  961  1,120  370  29  CHEMICAL,. RUBBER AND PETROLEUM  29+44+45  10  19,850  44,749  98  6,501  79.004  127  1,960  1,093  268  113  O T H E R  37+43+46  11  18,195  41,108  180  22,547  59,469  200  1,771 . 2,399  852  104  143,938  343,329  1,576  144,062  493,377  1,587  5,539  626  PAPER AND ALLIED INDUS.  TOTAL  4  0  7  4,052  14,143  1,831  16,385  particulates (Part).  More than 30 p e r c e n t o f the t o t a l  o u t p u t o f hydrocarbons which a l s o produced (CO)  came from t h e food i n d u s t r y group  some 44 p e r cent o f t h e carbon monoxide  and 25 p e r cent o f t h e o t h e r o r g a n i s e .  This r e f l e c t s  t h e r e l i t a v e l y g r e a t e r use o f g a s o l i n e i n t h e f o o d i n d u s t r y group t h a n i n any o t h e r i n d u s t r y .  Notes t o Accompany T a b l e 17 Gas The  e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s f o r a l l wastes b u t ammonia a r e from  65 Duprey  .  The f a c t o r f o r ammonia i s from Robinson and Robbins  Gasoline These f a c t o r s have been c o n v e r t e d from t h o s e g i v e n by 67 Duprey  in  terms o f U n i t e d S t a t e s g a l l o n s t o t h e i r  e q u i v a l e n t i n I m p e r i a l g a l l o n s , by m u l t i p l y i n g by 1.2. f a c t o r f o r r e a c t i v e hydrocarbons  The  was d e r i v e d w i t h t h e use o f  Robinson and Robbins e s t i m a t e t h a t 44 p e r cent o f t h e t o t a l 68 hydrocarbon  e m i s s i o n from t h i s source a r e h i g h l y r e a c t i v e  Fuel Oils There a r e b a s i c a l l y two t y p e s o f f u e l o i l : r e s i d u a l and distillate^.  Duprey g i v e s e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s f o r b o t h  types  but  the d a t a on i n d u s t r i a l  f u e l consumption does not  d i s t i n g u i s h between the two.  I t was decided to e s t i m a t e  the wastes u s i n g both s e t s o f e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s and then weight the r e s u l t s w i t h independent  data on the use o f both 70  types o f f u e l .  A c c o r d i n g to the Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s  i n d u s t r y and commerce ( e x c l u d i n g f o r e s t r y mining and commercial h e a t i n g ) , used as l i g h t  3.0 times as much heavy f u e l o i l  f u e l o i l ( i n c l u d i n g kerozene,  f u e l ) i n 1963.  and s m e l t i n g  On the assumption  stove o i l and t r a c t o r  t h a t t h i s r a t i o o f use was  the same i n 1961 i t was p o s s i b l e t o weight the e s t i m a t e s d e r i v e d w i t h the use o f the r e s i d u a l f a c t o r s t o account  fuel o i l emission  f o r the use o f d i s t i l l a t e  fuel o i l .  This  was a c h i e v e d by m u l t i p l y i n g the e s t i m a t e s f o r SO^ and SO^ by a f a c t o r o f 0.83, and the e s t i m a t e f o r p a r t i c u l a t e s by a f a c t o r o f 0.93. In o r d e r to use the e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s o f Table 17 t o e s t i m a t e emissions  from mining  w e i g h t i n g procedure i n d u s t r i e s except o f 0.91 was used  was used  and s m e l t i n g a s i m i l a r  as t h a t f o r the m a n u f a c t u r i n g  t h a t i n the case o f s u l p h u r o x i d e s a f a c t o r to a d j u s t the e s t i m a t e d e r i v e d w i t h the use  o f the r e s i d u a l f u e l o i l e m i s s i o n f a c t o r . fact  t h a t mining  f u e l o i l as l i g h t  and s m e l t i n g used  T h i s r e f l e c t e d the  7.7 times as much heavy 73 f u e l o i l i n 1963 . F o r the same reason a  ,  f a c t o r o f 0.96  was  used t o a d j u s t the e s t i m a t e o f p a r t i c u l a t e  e m i s s i o n from heavy f u e l  oil.  Duprey's e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s f o r s u l p h u r d i o x i d e and  sulphur  t r i o x i d e from both types o f f u e l o i l depend on t h e s u l p h u r 72 c o n t e n t o f the f u e l o i l s .  H e l l e r and Walters  assumed i n  t h e i r work t h a t the s u l p h u r content o f f u e l used by i n d u s t r y i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s d u r i n g 1960  was  1.5  p e r cent by  weight.  S i n c e no e s t i m a t e o f the s u l p h u r c o n t e n t o f f u e l o i l used i n Canada was  a v a i l a b l e i t was  n e c e s s a r y t o use t h i s  figure  i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the Duprey e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s t o d e r i v e those given i n Table  17.  The r e a c t i v e hydrocarbon  f a c t o r s were e s t i m a t e d from 73  i n f o r m a t i o n g i v e n by Robinson and Robbins o f t o t a l hydrocarbonsemitted  the  t h a t 18 p e r cent  from t h i s source a r e h i g h l y  reactive. A l l the f a c t o r s were c o n v e r t e d t o I m p e r i a l g a l l o n s . C o a l and A n t h r a c i t e Robinson and Robbins p r o p o r t i o n o f hydrocarbons  74  f i g u r e o f 15 per c e n t f o r t h e t h a t a r e h i g h l y r e a c t i v e was used. 75  r e s t o f the e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s a r e from Duprey  .  f o r s u l p h u r d i o x i d e e s t i m a t e s o f the average  sulphur content  were r e q u i r e d .  The  To use h i s f a c t o r  In the absence o f e s t i m a t e s o f t h e s u l p h u r c o n t e n t 76 o f c o a l used i n Canada, Smith and Gruber's e s t i m a t e s o f the  average s u l p h u r c o n t e n t o f c o a l mined i n t h e U n i t e d  States  were used: 2 p e r c e n t by weight f o r bituminous and 0.6 cent by weight f o r a n t h r a c i t e .  S i m i l a r l y , Duprey's  per  factors f o r  p a r t i c u l a t e matter r e q u i r e s knowledge o f t h e ash c o n t e n t o f the c o a l as w e l l as i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e type o f u n i t used f o r combustion.  The f a c t o r s i n T a b l e 17 a r e based on an 77  assumed ash c o n t e n t o f 10 p e r cent  and l a c k i n g  details  about t h e combustion u n i t s a s i m p l e average o f t h e e f f i c i e n c e s o f t h e combustion u n i t s mentioned by Duprey was  used.  Wood Robinson and Robbins g i v e e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s f o r wood i n terms o f tons o f wood b u r n t as f u e l .  The d a t a on f u e l consumption i n 78 the Review o f M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r i e s measures wood by c o r d s . Cords were c o n v e r t e d t o t o n s u s i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g i n f o r m a t i o n 79 from World F o r e s t P r o d u c t S t a t i s t i c s 1 c o r d = 74.9  .  c u b i c f e e t o f s o l i d wood w i t h o u t bark.  Average weight a t shipment o f fuelwood = 451bs/cubic f o o t . 1 c o r d = 337011bs. = 1.185  tons.  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE COMBUSTION OF FUELS BY THE CANADIAN MINERAL INDUSTRY, 1961 (DBS 2-3) 80 The G e n e r a l Review o f t h e M i n e r a l I n d u s t r i e s f o r 1961  includes  an account o f the f u e l s used by t h e m i n e r a l i n d u s t r i e s i n 1961.  The  e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s which were a p p l i e d t o t h i s d a t a a r e r e c o r d e d i n T a b l e 17.  The e s t i m a t e s o f t h e a i r b o r n e wastes appear i n  T a b l e s 19 and 20:  T a b l e 19 i n c l u d e s f u e l consumption and waste  p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e m i n e r a l i n d u s t r y f o r a l l m i n i n g except fuels.  mineral  E q u i v a l e n t d a t a f o r t h e mining o f m i n e r a l f u e l s a r e  r e c o r d e d i n T a b l e 20.  As i n t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f a i r b o r n e  wastes e m i t t e d from t h e combustion o f f u e l s by t h e manufacturing  i n t e r e s t s i t was n e c e s s a r y t o use t h e e m i s s i o n  o f f a c t o r s f o r c o a l g i v e n by Duprey  f o r a l l c o a l s and coke,  except a n t h r a c i t e , and t h e f a c t o r s f o r n a t u r a l gas from Duprey f o r a l l gases.  T a b l e s 19 and 20 show t h a t t h e s e  simplifications  are u n l i k e l y t o be a s u b s t a n t i a l s o u r c e o f e r r o r s i n c e  bituminous  c o a l and n a t u r a l gas were used f a r more e x t e n s i v e l y than t h e o t h e r t y p e s o f c o a l and g a s . A l l f u e l s were used i n g r e a t e r q u a n t i t i e s i n t h e n o n - f u e l producing sector  o f t h e i n d u s t r y ( T a b l e 19) than i n t h e  f u e l producing s e c t o r (Table 20).  However, as a comparison  o f t h e two t a b l e s shows, r e l i t a v e l y more c o a l and f u e l o i l was used  i n t h e n o n - f u e l p r o d u c i n g s e c t o r and r e l i t a v e l y more  g a s o l i n e was  used i n t h e f u e l p r o d u c i n g s e c t o r .  This  acounts  f o r t h e d i f f e r e n t c o m p o s i t i o n o f a i r b o r n e wastes produced i n t h e s e two s e c t o r s o f t h e m i n e r a l s i n d u s t r y .  The output o f  n i t r o g e n o x i d e s (NO ) r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e 19 i s t h r e e times  .TABLE 19  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM FUEL CONSUMPTION IN THE CANADIAN MINERAL INDUSTRY, 1961 ( A l l Mining Except Mineral Fuels)  AIRBORNE WASTES  FUEL  QUANTITY  NO,  SO,  so  3  CO  (TONS)  PART.  ALDE.  AMMONIA  HYDROCARBONS 'TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  o  COAL (Tons) Bituminous Sub-Bituminous Anthracite Lignite Coke  204,887 14,217 16,025 1,027 6,563  TOTAL COAL  242,769  2,428  GASOLINE (Imp. Gals.)  10,601,029  719  KEROSENE (Imp. Gals.)  165,380  9,225  57  364  —  14,629  243  16,994  76  25  121  18  1,272  560  25  AIRBORNE WASTES ; FUEL  FUEL OIL (Imp. Gals.)  WOOD (Cords)  QUANTITY  NO  so  92,026,397  3,974  12,908  r  2  so  3  184  CO  110  (TONS) • PART.  127  •* ALDE..  110  AMMONIA  437'  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  110  vo  15,562  21  '646  14  28  4  GAS (1000 Cu. Ft.) L i q u i f i e d Pet. Natural TOTAL GAS  TOTAL WASTES (Tons)  453,784 3,959,259  4,413,040  7,607  22,196  184  15,750  17,237  11  44  40  472  140  745  1,531  582  36  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM FUEL CONSUMPTION IN THE CANADIAN MINERAL FUELS INDUSTRY, 1961  AIRBORNE WASTES  FUEL  QUANTITY  NO,  S0  S0  2  3  CO  (TONS) PART.  ALDE.  AMMONIA  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  COAL (Tons) Bituminous Sub-Bituminous Anthracite Lignite Coke  36,102 1,485 7 12,124 118  TOTAL COAL  49,836  498  1,894  GASOLINE (Gallons)  6,851,448  ,464  37  KEROSENE (Gallons)  19,547  1  1  —  75  3,489  9,454  49  50  16  —  25  822  362  16  ^AIRBORNE WASTES  FUEL  - QUANTITY  FUEL OIL (Gallons)  WOOD (Cords)  N0  S0  2  3,019,299  ' rr'r-\-': 130  2,599  2  2  S0  3  (TONS)  CO  PART.  • 356  —  5  .. —  / 4  4  108  —  ALDE.  :  AMMONIA  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  ' 4  —  14  4  4  5  1  GAS (1000  Cu. F t . )  L i q u i f i e d Pet. Natural  1,571,914 11,844,402  TOTAL GAS  13,416,316  TOTAL AIRBORNE WASTES  1,436  2,531 2,291  5  9,644  121  13  134  3,663  33  202  34  856  367  50  g r e a t e r than t h a t r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e 20 (7,607 t o n s compared w i t h 2,531 t o n s ) , whereas t h e output o f s u l p h u r d i o x i d e r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e 19 i s t e n times t h a t o f T a b l e 20 (22,196 t o n s compared w i t h 2,291 t o n s ) . As noted on page136 m i n i n g and s m e l t i n g i n d u s t r i e s 7.7 t i m e s as much heavy f u e l o i l as l i g h - n f u e l o i l .  used  This fact  i s a l l o w e d f o r i n t h e e s t i m a t e s o f T a b l e 19 t h a t r e l a t e t o t h e use o f f u e l o i l . kerosene  Moreover, f o r t h e purposes  of estimation  i s assumed t o be l i g h t f u e l o i l , and a l l gas i s  assumed t o be n a t u r a l gas.  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN CANADA, 1961 (DBS 14) The t o t a l g e n e r a t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y i n Canada d u r i n g 1961 81 was 113,713,318,000 k.w.h. T h i s power was produced by e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s , p u b l i c l y and p r i v a t e l y owned, and by t h e p r i v a t e generators o f i n d u s t r i a l establishments.  The f o l l o w i n g  82 Table  shows t h e q u a n t i t y o f power produced  t h e s e t h r e e types o f u n i t s .  by each o f  ELECTRIC  UTILITIES  INDUSTRIAL ESTABLISHMENTS  TOTAL  PUBLICLY OPERATED 1,000 K.W.H.  PRIVATELY OPERATED 1,000 K.W.H.  1,000 K.W.H.  TOTAL  59,739,877  29,648,758  24,324,683  113,713,318  HYDRO  55,170.410  27,155,454  21,593,377  103,919,241  4,569,470  2,493,304  2,731,306  9,794,077  THERMAL  1,000 K.W.H.  Of t h e t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y generated 91.4 p e r cent was produced by hydro e l e c t r i c s t a t i o n s and 8.6 p e r cent by t h e r m a l stations. stations).  ( I n 1961 t h e r e were no Canadian  electric  atomic power  A l l t h e a i r b o r n e wastes from e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n  came from t h e t h e r m a l power s t a t i o n s . Three t y p e s o f m i n e r a l f u e l were used i n 1961 f o r t h e g e n e r a t i o n 83 o f t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y : n a t u r a l g a s , c o a l and f u e l o i l  . The  q u a n t i t i e s used and e s t i m a t e s o f t h e consequent a i r b o r n e wastes a r e shown i n T a b l e 21. Three a i r b o r n e wastes, i n p a r t i c u l a r , were produced  i n significant  quantities:  271,000  tons o f s u l p h u r d i o x i d e , 158,000 t o n s o f p a r t i c u l a t e s and 85,000 t o n s o f n i t r o g e n o x i d e s ;  The g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e r m a l  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM ELECTRICITY GENERATION I N CANADA, 1961  ..."  FUEL  •  "  QUANTITY  AIRBORNE WASTES •  (TONS)  - ' . ' .••'.  NO  S0  3  CO  PART.  AMMONIA  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  ALDE.  OTHER ORGANICS  X  NATURAL . GAS  COAL  FUEL OIL  TOTAL  41,253,192 (1000 c u . f t . )  8,044  8  2,251,000 TONS  22,510  106,922  87,236,853 GALLONS  54,450  .164,000  85,004  270,930  —  —  3 0 9  . 413  21  —  6,  563  157,520  2,251  225  34  252  21  53  389  172  31  314  252  584  157,882  397  65  341  3,053  62  —  62  e l e c t r i c power by each P r o v i n c e i s g i v e n i n T a b l e 22  .  More  than a q u a r t e r o f the t o t a l output o f t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y produced producers  in Alberta.  Saskatchewan was  t h e next most  was  important  a c c o u n t i n g f o r n e a r l y 20 p e r cent o f the t o t a l  output.  Nova S c o t i a and O n t a r i o were the o n l y o t h e r P r o v i n c e s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r p r o d u c t i o n i n excess o f 10 p e r c e n t o f the output o f t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y . used  A l l the e m i s s i o n  i n t h e e s t i m a t i o n procedure  Notes t o Accompany T a b l e Natural  total  factors  are r e c o r d e d i n T a b l e  23.  23  Gas  The e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s f o r a l l wastes but ammonia are  85 from Duprey and  .  The f a c t o r s f o r ammonia are from Robinson  Robbins  Fuel O i l Except f o r ammonia and r e a c t i v e hydrocarbons,  a l l o f the  87 e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s came from Duprey  .  In o r d e r t o make use  o f Duprey's f a c t o r s f o r s u l p h u r d i o x i d e and s u l p h u r t r i p x i d e e m i s s i o n s , which are g i v e n i n terms o f t h e s u l p h u r c o n t e n t  88 o f t h e f u e l , i t was  n e c e s s a r y t o use H e l l e r and  Walter's  e s t i m a t e s o f the s u l p h u r c o n t e n t o f f u e l o i l used United States during  1960:  i n the  PROVINCIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRODUCTION OF THERMAL ELECTRIC POWER, 1961  KILOWATT HOURS •(1,000)  PROVINCE  137,008  1.4  88,150  0.9  ... 1,317,123  13.5  891,400  9.1  307,790  3.1  Newfoundland P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d Nova S c o t i a  : / •\  New Brunswick  r'-y  Quebec .  Ontario Manitoba  v  Saskatchewan Alberta British  . -y.  1,216,464 •  12.5  257,367  2.6  1,885,133  19.2  2,752,745  28.1  '  Columbia  904,823 .  Yukon and N.W. T e r r i t o r i e s '  CANADA  PER CENT OF TOTAL  36,074  9,794,077  Sources: see text, pp. 195-197.  9.2  0.4  100.0  . 'TABLE 23  A SUMMARY OF EMISSION FACTORS USED FOR ESTIMATING ••••'THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM VARIOUS ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES  FUEL AND CATEGORY OF USE (Where Relevant)  AIRBORNE WASTES so  NO  2  so  3  CO  PART.  ALDE.  X  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  AMMONIA  OTHER ORGANICS  UNITS  : TABLES FOR WHICH EMISSION FACTORS WERE USED TO COMPUTE VALUES  • -  I  NATURAL GAS: Thermal E l e c t r i c Power Plant " Industrial Boilers Domestic and •• Commercial  O  VO 3 9 0  0 . 4  2 1 4  0 . 4  1 1 6  0 . 4  — '  -—  —  1 5  1  2 0  1 8  2  2 0  0 . 4  2 8 3  3 . 6  2 . 4  -  1 9  .'/. • '  8 6 . 4  •'  -  —  O  ' '  3  2 7 . 6  .  2 0  — .  Thermal E l e c t r i c Power Plant  2 1  rt to  • -  '  ON  rh  . 2 4 ,  2 5 ,  2 4 ,  2 5 ,  2 6 .  •  2 . 4  2 . 4  0 . 4  O  -  2 6 ,  3 7 ,  3 8 ,  r—  1  8 6 . 4  2 8 3  3 . 6  2 . 4  1 8  2 . 4  8 . 8  2 - 0  0 . 4  o  _  M i  3 8 ,  4 1 .  .• i| ; 1 2 4 . 8  3 7 7  5 . 8  0 . 0 5  1 4 , 4  5 6 . 5  0 . 7  2 . 4  1 3 5 . 6  1 0 . 8  1 2  0 . 7  9 . 6  2 , 4  1 4 . 4  4 . 8  9 . 5  -  o  3 . 8  0 . 7  3 . 6  0 . 6  -  2 4 0  1 0 5 . 6  4 . 8  MLONS  Domestic and Commercial Heating  O  5  Industry & Commercial Distillate  1  Vi r-i  0 . 4  FUEL OIL: Residual  M  2 1 ,  2 4 ,  2 5 ,  2 6 .  i •  GASOLINE:  2 7 6 0 -  Pounds/ Imp. Gallons 1 0  3  2 7 ,  2 9 ,  3 1 ,  3 3 ,  3 7 .  • TABLE 23  FUEL AND CATEGORY . OF USE (Where R e l e v a n t )  [DIE S E L OIL:  ... NO  x  266  S0  continued  AIRBORNE WASTES 2  48  S0  3  CO  PART.  72  132  ALDE.  .•.- • " AMMONIA  12  '.-HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  163  72  •'- OTHER ORGANICS  37  TABLES FOR WHICH  UNITS  Pounds/  EMTSSTON PAPTnuc TTODI?  ^  ^  0  0  ^  ?  „nrr.  ^  24, 25, 26, 27, 29, 31,  10 Imp.33, 37, 38, 41. Gallons 3  ro O O  COAL: Thermal E l e c t r i c Power P l a n t  \  I n d u s t r y and Transportation  Domestic and "x Commercial  Sources:  o 20  95  20  76  8  57  see t e x t , pp. 197-203.  0.5  140  .0.005  2  140  0.005  2  140  0.005  2  0.2  0.003  co co  W o  0.15  5o .  50  10  1.5  21.  38.  O  ,24,  25, 26.;  Use o f F u e l O i l  Sulphur Content ( P e r Cent) 2.0 1.5  Thermal E l e c t r i c Power P l a n t I n d u s t r i a l and Commercial Domestic and Commercial H e a t i n g  .0.3  The f a c t o r s f o r ammonia come from Robinson and Robbins  89  and t h o s e f o r r e a c t i v e hydrocarbons were e s t i m a t e d from t h e 90 i n f o r m a t i o n g i v e n by Robinson and Robbins  t h a t 18 p e r c e n t  o f t o t a l hydrocarbons e m i t t e d from t h e combustion o f f u e l o i l are r e a c t i v e . All  t h e f a c t o r s were c o n v e r t e d from U.S. t o I m p e r i a l  g a l l o n s by m u l t i p l y i n g by 1.2. Gasoline 91 These f a c t o r s were c o n v e r t e d from t h o s e g i v e n by Duprey i n terms o f U.S. g a l l o n s t o t h e i r e q u i v a l e n t i n I m p e r i a l gallons. The f a c t o r f o r r e a c t i v e hydrocarbons was d e r i v e d w i t h t h e use o f Robinson and Robbins e s t i m a t e t h a t 44 p e r cent o f t h e t o t a l hydrocarbons e m i s s i o n from t h i s s o u r c e a r e h i g h l y 92 reactive Diesel O i l 93 These f a c t o r s were c o n v e r t e d from t h o s e g i v e n by Duprey i n terms o f U.S. g a l l o n s t o t h e i r e q u i v a l e n t i n I m p e r i a l g a l l o n s .  The  factor for reactive  hydrocarbons  was  d e r i v e d by u s i n g  the e s t i m a t e f o r g a s o l i n e t h a t 44 p e r c e n t o f the hydrocarbons  toal  e m i t t e d from g a s o l i n e combustion are h i g h l y  94 reactive  .  T h i s a p p r o x i m a t i o n was  made n e c e s s a r y by  the  absence o f any s e p a r a t e e s t i m a t e f o r d i e s e l o i l combustion. Coal 95 Robinson and Robbins f i g u r e o f 15 per c e n t f o r t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f hydrocarbons t h a t are r e a c t i v e was used. The o f the e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s a r e  from Duprey  96  .  rest  In o r d e r t o use h i s 97  f a c t o r s f o r s u l p h u r d i o x i d e H e l l e r and W a l t e r s ' o f the a v e r a t e s u l p h u r c o n t e n t o f c o a l used S t a t e s d u r i n g 1960  estimates  i n the U n i t e d  were used:  Use o f C o a l  Sulphur Content  Thermal E l e c t r i c Power P l a n t  2.5  I n d u s t r y and T r a n s p o r t a t i o n  2.0  Domestic and Commercial  1.5  ( P e r Cent)  S i m i l a r l y , Duprey's f a c t o r s f o r p a r t i c u l a t e matter r e q u i r e s knowledge o f t h e ash c o n t e n t o f the c o a l as w e l l as i n f o r m a t i o n about t h e t y p e o f u n i t used f o r combustion.  The  factors i n  T a b l e 23 a r e based on an assumed ash c o n t e s t o f 10 p e r cent  and l a c k i n g d e t a i l s about t h e combustion u n i t s a s i m p l e average o f t h e e f f i c i e n c i e s o f t h e combustion u n i t s by Duprey was  E.5.  mentioned  used.  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE DOMESTIC USE MINERAL FUELS IN, CANADA, 1961  OF  T a b l e 24- shows e s t i m a t e s o f t h e domestic use o f m i n e r a l f u e l s and t h e a i r b o r n e wastes produced by combustion o f these f u e l s .  In t h e case o f n a t u r a l gas t h e f i g u r e f o r the  domestic use o f t h e f u e l i s r e p o r t e d d i r e c t l y by t h e Dominion 99 Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s  .  The f i g u r e s f o r f i n i s h e d p e t r o l e u m  p r o d u c t s a r e somewhat more ambigious i n t h a t t h e y r e f e r t o what i s p r o b a b l y a l a r g e r c a t e g o r y o f use: apartment, farms' '*'^. 1  "residential,  The q u a n t i t y o f c o a l used f o r domestic  purposes g i v e n i n T a b l e 24 i s an e s t i m a t e based on the assumption t h a t t h e c a t e g o r y "domestic, commercial and Government"^"*  -  i s broken down as f o l l o w s : Government use accounts f o r 20 p e r cent o f t h e c a t e g o r y ' s t o t a l ( t h a t i s , t h e same percentage as f o r heavy f u e l o i l i n 102 1963) . The r e m a i n i n g 80per c e n t i s d i v i d e d between domestic and commercial i n t h e same p r o p o r t i o n as t h e use o f n a t u r a l 103 gas i n 1961, t h a t i s , 2.1:1  .  The e m i s s i o n f a c t o r used f o r  t h e e s t i m a t e s a r e r e c o r d e d i n T a b l e 23.  I t i s apparent from  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE DOMESTIC USE OF MINERAL FUELS IN CANADA, 1961  AIRBORNE WASTES F U E L  NATURAL GAS  QUANTITY  NO^  11.9,667,024 6,940 (1000 cu. f t . )  LIGHT FUEL OIL ( I n c l u d i n g Kerosene, 2,304,486 Stove o i l and T r a c - (1000 G a l s . ) tor Fuel)  S0  2  S0  3  (TONS) CO  PART.  24  --  24  1,137  --  1,197  16,592  65,099 '  807  2,765  11,061  2,765  —  289  173  199  173  686  580  —  HEAVY FUEL OIL  144,384 (1000 G a l s . )  6,238  20,259  DIESEL FUEL OIL  96,562 (1000 G a l s . )  12,848  2,318  —  3,478  6,376  2,798 (Tons)  11,193  79,751  —  69,957  195,880  76,397  214,653  C O A L  TOTAL  —  Sources: see text, p. 203.  ALDE. AMMONIA  53,811  167,451 1,096  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  4,148  173  OTHER ORGANICS  691  29  7,873  3,478  7 2,798  13,991  2,099  3,525 4,681  26,185  6^325  1,787  1,787  T a b l e 24 t h a t t h e combustion o f c o a l accounts f o r almost a l l o f t h e output o f p a r t i c u l a t e s and carbon monoxide from domestic  sources.  C o a l i s a l s o important  o f s u l p h u r d i o x i d e and hydrocarbons  i n the production  s i n c e n e a r l y 50 p e r cent  o f t h e t o t a l output o f t h e s e wastes i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o c o a l combustion. produced  N i t r o g e n o x i d e s a r e t h e o n l y o t h e r wastes  i n s i g n i f i c a n t q u a n t i t i e s and t h e combustion o f  l i g h t f u e l o i l produced coming from domestic  E.6.  almost  30 p e r cent o f t h e t o t a l  sources.  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE COMMERCIAL USE OF MINERAL FUELS IN CANADA, 1961 T a b l e 25 shows e s t i m a t e s o f t h e commercial use o f m i n e r a l f u e l s and t h e a i r b o r n e wastes produced these f u e l s .  by combustion o f  As w i t h t h e domestic use o f t h e s e f u e l s t h e  n a t u r a l gas f i g u r e i s taken d i r e c t l y from Energy Supply And 104 Demand Balances  .  The f i g u r e s f o r f i n i s h e d  p r o d u c t s a r e f o r commercial h e a t i n g o n l y .  petroleum  Commercial t r a n s p o r t  i s d e a l t w i t h i n a s e p a r a t e s e c t i o n and o t h e r commercial uses a r e i n c l u d e d i n a l a r g e r c a t e g o r y o f ' I n d u s t r i a l and Commercial'' 105 by t h e Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s  .  I t was n o t p o s s i b l e  t o s e p a r a t e o t h e r commercial uses from t h i s l a r g e r c a t e g o r y . Commercial use o f c o a l was e s t i m a t e d w i t h t h e same assumptions  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE COMMERCIAL USE OF MINERAL FUELS IN CANADA, 1961  AIRBORNE WASTES  F U E L  QUANTITY  LIGHT FUEL OIL ( I n c l u d i n g Kerosene, Stove O i l and T r a c 235,946 tor Fuel) (1000 G a l s . ) NATURAL GAS  SO  SO  CO  PART.  83  283  1,133  1,699  6,667  56,269,778 3,263 (1000 cu. f t . )  11  —  —  ALDE. AMMONIA  283  —  540  —  562  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  425  71  394,418 Gals.)  17,038  55,334  789  473  544  473  1,873  473  77  (1000  12,719 Gals.)  1,702  307  —  461  845  77  —  1,403  461  (1000  1,347 Tons.)  5,389  38,399  —  33,683  94,312  3  1,347  6,737  1,011  (1000  872  34,900  97,374  836  HEAVY FUEL OIL  DIESEL FUEL OIL  C O A L  TOTAL  M)  (TONS)  —  2 9 , 0 9 1 100,718  3,782 9,038  1,622  OTHER ORGANICS  t h a t were made t o e s t i m a t e t h e domestic use o f c o a l i n s e c t i o n E.5., t h a t i s , commercial use accounts f o r 26 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l c a t e g o r y "domestic commercial and Government".  The  e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s used f o r t h e e s t i m a t e s a r e r e c o r d e d i n T a b l e 23. C o a l i s almost as prominentjas a source o f a i r b o r n e wastes i n t h e commercial use o f f u e l s as i t i s i n t h e domestic use o f f u e l s .  This i s not true o f l i g h t f u e l o i l , the  domestic use o f which exceeds t h e commercial use by 10 t i m e s . In c o n t r a s t t o t h i s , t h e commercial use o f heavy f u e l o i l i s l e s s than 3 times that  o f t h e domestic u s e .  This  commercial  use o f heavy f u e l o i l amounts f o r some 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l output o f s u l p h u r d i o x i d e and n i t r o g e n o x i d e s .  E.7.  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE USE OF MINERAL FUELS BY GOVERNMENTS, POLICE AND ARMED FORCES IN CANADA, 1961 The e s t i m a t e s o f t h e government s e c t o r ' s use o f m i n e r a l f u e l s p a r a l l e l s t h o s e o f t h e domestic and commercial use o f these f u e l s i n the previous s e c t i o n .  Data f o r t h e consumption  o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s come d i r e c t l y from Dominion Bureau o f 106 S t a t i s t i c s sources  .  The consumption  o f c o a l was e s t i m a t e d  on t h e assumption t h a t t h e Government consumed t h e same p e r c e n t a g e o f c o a l and heavy f u e l o i l a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e c a t e g o r y  "domestic  , commercial and Government" i n 1963  26 r e c o r d s the r e s u l t s .  .  Table  The e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s used f o r t h e  e s t i m a t e s a r e r e c o r d e d i n T a b l e 23.  Coal again f i g u r e s very  p r o m i n e n t l y as a s o u r c e o f a i r b o r n e waste p r o d u c t s . use o f d i e s e l f u e l o i l i s a l s o f a i r l y s i g n i f i c a n t ,  The especially  w i t h r e s p e c t t o the p r o d u c t i o n o f n i t r o g e n o x i d e s , (more than 30 p e r cent o f the t o a l ) , hydrocarbons,  ( n e a r l y 30 p e r cent  o f the t o t a l ) and o t h e r o r g a n i c s (about 90 p e r cent o f the  E.8.  THE FOR  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE USE TRANSPORTATION IN CANADA, 1961 (DBS 13)  total).  OF MINERAL FUELS  The Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s d e f i n e s 7 c a t e g o r i e s of transportation services:  passenger  c a r s and motor c y c l e s ,  a i r t r a n s p o r t , m a r i n e t r a n s p o r t , r a i l w a y s , t r u c k s , bus  traffic  ( i n t e r u r b a n and r u r a l ) , urban t r a n s i t , and t a x i c a b s .  Passenger  c a r s and motor c y c l e s w i l l be t r e a t e d i n a s e p a r a t e from t h e o t h e r 6 c a t e g o r i e s .  section  A i r t r a n s p o r t has been o m i t t e d  from  the d i s c u s s i o n s i n c e there i s i n s u f f i c i e n t data f o r estimating t h e e m i s s i o n o f a i r b o r n e wastes from a i r t r a n s p o r t .  Furthermore,  t a x i c a b s are i n c l u d e d w i t h p r i v a t e motor c a r s i n the d a t a f o r the number o f v e h i c l e s  108  a l t h o u g h t h e d a t a f o r motor g a s o l i n e  consumption i n c l u d e s t a x i c a b s i n t h e c a t e g o r y o f commercial 109 transport  .  T a x i c a b s w i l l n o t , t h e r e f o r e , appear as a s e p a r a t e  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE COMBUSTION OF MINERAL FUELS BY FEDERAL AND PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS, POLICE AND ARMED FORCES IN CANADA, 1961 AIRBORNE WASTES QUANTITY  SO,  PART.  ALDE.  56  226  56  84  97  84  1,224  1,836  3,366  306  4,146  29,537  25,910  72,548  3  3,040  242  61,883  323  108  17,331  42,152  89,769  76,560  557  NO  SO,  47,042 (1000 Gals.)  338  1,328  16  HEAVY FUEL OIL  70,052 (1000 Gals.)  3,024  9,821  140  DIESEL FUEL OIL  51,065 (1000 Gals.)  6,783  COAL  1,036 (1000 Tons)  GASOLINE  48,843 (1000 Gals.)  F U E L  LIGHT FUEL OIL (Including Kerosene, Stove O i l and Tractor Fuel)  (TONS)  CO  AMMONIA  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  85  14  84  14  4,157  1,836  5,182  777  5,381  2,368  14,889  5,009  OTHER ORGANI  NATURAL GAS  TOTAL  —  156  332  1,036  1,368  1,052  c a t e g o r y a l t h o u g h t h e a i r b o r n e wastes from t h i s form o f transport are included i n the t o t a l estimates.  The marine  t r a n s p o r t c a t e g o r y p r e s e n t s problems o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i n t h a t i t i n c l u d e s f i s h i n g boats as w e l l as- passenger vessels.  and f r e i g h t  S i n c e i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o d i s a g g r e g a t e t h e c a t e g o r y any  f u r t h e r t h e e s t i m a t e s o f a i r b o r n e wastes a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h e f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y w i l l be d u l y The  underestimated.  e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s f o r a l l t h e e s t i m a t e s a r e from  Table  23.  E.8.a)  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE COMBUSTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS BY COMMERCIAL.'MOTOR VEHICLES IN CANADA, 1961 The  Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s have e s t i m a t e d t h e use  o f g a s o l i n e and d i e s e l o i l on p u b l i c highways f o r t r a s n p o r t a t i o n 110 purposes.  This data i s recorded m  T a b l e 27 t o g e t h e r w i t h  e s t i m a t e s o f t h e e m i s s i o n o f a i r b o r n e wastes.  T a b l e 28 shows  the t o t a l e m i s s i o n s o f a i r b o r n e wastes from highway t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t h a t i s , t h e sum o f wastes produced  by g a s o l i n e and d i e s e l o i l  combustion. A comparison o f t h e d a t a i n T a b l e 27 r e l a t i n g t o wastes from g a s o l i n e and d i e s e l o i l combustion shows t h a t the former a r e f a r more s i g n i f i c a n t than t h e l a t t e r .  The o n l y  P r o v i n c e i n which more wastes a r e e m i t t e d from d i e s e l o i l combustion i s t h e Yukon and North West T e r r i t o r i e s .  As f o r t h e  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM MOTOR VEHICLES IN CANADA AND  AIRBORNE WASTES  THE PROVINCES,  (TONS)  GASOLINE PROVINCE  (1000 GALLONS)  Newfoundland P r i n c e Edward  31,189,814 Island  . 14,271,571  NO  SO  CO  1961  PART.  AIDE.  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  2,115  168  43,056  225  75  3,744  1,647  75  963  77  19,596  102  34  1,704  749  34  Nova S c o t i a  98,165,395  6,644  529  135,240  706  235  11,760  5,174  235  New Brunswick  81,069,260  5,492  437  111,780  583  194  9,720  4,277  194  751,144,879  50,931  4,056  1,036,656  5,409  1,803  90,144  39,663  1,803  1,260,544,153  85,469  6,807  1,739,628  9,076  3,025  151,272  66,560  3,025  Manitoba  162,773,662  11,038  879  224,664  1,172  390  19,536  8,596  390  Saskatchewan  180,369,141  12,367  985  251,712  1,313  437  21,888  9,631  437  Alberta  269,593,444  18,279  1,456  372,048  1,941  647  32,352  14,235  647  B r i t i s h Columbia  2>!3,863,563  19,242  1,532  391,644  2,043  681  34,056  14,985  681  Yukon and N.W.T.  6,963,136  475  38  9,660  50  17  840  370  17  3,139,948,018  212,892  16,956  4,333,200  22,608  7,536  376,800  165,792  7,536  Quebec Ontario  CANADA  AIRBORNE WASTES  PROVINCE  Newfoundland P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d Nova S c o t i a  DIESEL OIL (1000 GALLONS)  NO  X  SO  x  CO  (TONS)  PART.  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS REACTIVE TOTAL  OTHER ORGANIC  1,158,432  160  29  43  79  7  97  43  22  828,757  109  20  30  54  5  67  30  15  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  2,475,715  319  58  86  158  14  196  86  44  Quebec  61,015,206  8,113  1,464  2,196  4,026  366  4,972  2,196  1,129  Ontario  40,456,463  5,373  970  1,454  2,666  242  3,293  1,454  747  Manitoba  4,882,123  649  117  176  322  29  398  176  90  Saskatchewan  5,041,989  665  120  180  330  30  408  180  93  11,408,197  1,516  274  410  752  68  929  410  211  Columbia  9,865,966  1,303  235  353  647  59  799  353  181  Yukon and N.W.T.  5,499,579  732  132  198  363  33  448  198  102  143,042,427  19,019  3,432  5,148  9,438  858  11,655  5,148  2,646  New  Brunswick  Alberta British  CANADA  —  TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM THE USE OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL OIL FROM:MOTOR VEHICLES IN CANADA AND THE PROVINCES, 1961  AIRBORNE WASTES  PROVINCE  NO  Newfoundland  SO X  x  CO  (TONS)  PART.  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS REACTIVE TOTAL  OTHER ORGANI (  2,275  197  43,099  304  82  3,841  1,690  97  1,072  97  19,626  156  39  1,771  779  49  Nova S c o t i a  6,644  529  135,240  706  235  11,760  5,174  235  New Brunswick  6,130  495  111,366  741  208  9,916  4,363  238  Quebec  59,044  5,520  1,038,852  9,435  2,169  95,116  4.1,859  2,932  Ontario  90,842  7,777  1,741,082  11,742  3,267  154,565  68,014  3,772  Manitoba  11,687  996  224,840  1,494  419  19,934  8,772  480  Saskatchewan  13,032  1,105  251,892  1.643  467  22,296  9,311  530  Alberta  19,795  1,730  372,458  2,693 .  715  33,281  14,645  858  Columbia  20,545  1,767  391,997  2,690  740  34,355  15,338  862  Yukon and N.W.T.  1,207  170  9.858  413  50  1,238  568  119  23^,911  20.388  *,338.348  32,046  8,394  338,455  170,940  10,232  P r i n c e Edward  British  CANADA  Island  o t h e r P r o v i n c e s T a b l e 28 shows t h a t more wastes a r e produced o v e r a l i n O n t a r i o t h e n Quebec, f o l l o w e d by the Western P r o v i n c e s t h e o t h e r c e n t r a l P r o v i n c e s and f i n a l l y t h e E a s t e r n P r o v i n c e s . 1)  Trucks - T a b l e 29 shows t h e P r o v i n c i a l use o f g a s o l i n e  and d i e s e l o i l by t r u c k s i n 1 9 6 1 , a n d a i r b o r n e wastes e m i t t e d .  the e s t i m a t e s  of  T a b l e 30 shows the e s t i m a t e d  a i r b o r n e wastes from t r u c k t r a f f i c i n each P r o v i n c e . n e a r l y 7 times as much g a s o l i n e as d i e s e l o i l was  total  Although  used, t h i s  l a t t e r f u e l produced more p a r t i c u l a t e s and o t h e r o r g a n i c s t h a n g a s o l i n e , n e a r l y 66 p e r c e n t o f the s u l p h u r d i o x i d e as produced by g a s o l i n e and more than 25 p e r c e n t as much nitrogen oxides.  The P r o v i n c e s , ranked  i n o r d e r o f wastes  produced, have O n t a r i o w i t h t h e most, f o l l o w e d by Quebec, the Western P r o v i n c e s , the o t h e r c e n t r a l P r o v i n c e s and t h e n  the  Eastern Provinces. 2)  Urban T r a n s i t - T a b l e 31 shows the P r o v i n c i a l use  of  112 g a s o l i n e and d i e s e l o i l f o r urban transit  t r a n s i t i n 1961  i s d e f i n e d by t h e Dominion Bureau o f  .  (Urban  Statistics  as p a s s e n g e r s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d by motor b u s e s , t r o l l e y coaches,  s t r e e t c a r s , subway c a r s i n major urban  and  m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s , i n townswith p o p u l a t i o n s ^ excess 5,000 and  of  i n towns and a d j o i n i n g r e g i o n s w i t h i n a 3 m i l e range  EMISSION OF'AIRBORNE WASTES FROM TRUCK TRAFFIC IN CANADA AND THE PROVINCES, AIRBORNE WASTES  (TONS)  GASOLINE (1000 GALLONS)  NO  SO  x  Newfoundland  CO  1961  FART.  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  x  5,727  388  31  7,894  41  14  686  302  14  2,371  164  13  3,312  17  6  288  128  6  Nova S c o t i a  21,456  1,451  116  29,532  154  51  2,568  1,129  51  New Brunswick  17,822  1,207  96  24,564  128  43  2,136  940  43  Quebec  155,003  10,509  837  213,900  1,116  372  18,600  8,184  372  Ontario  254,843  17,275  1,375  351,624  1,835  612  30,576  13,453  612  Manitoba  35,148  2,387  190  48,576  253  84  4,224  1,858  84  Saskatchewan  42,618  2,888  230  58,788  307  102  5,112  2,249  102  Alberta  77,390  5,248  418  106,812  557  186  9,289  4,087  186  57,234  3,878  309  78,936  412  137  6,864  3,020  137  669,402  45,385  3,615  923,772  4,820  1,607  35,344  1,607  P r i n c e Edward  British CANADA  Island  Columbia  80,328  AIRBORNE WASTES  (TONS)  DIESEL OIL PROVINCE  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  (1000 GALLONS)  NO  Newfoundland  —  —  —  —  —  P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d  —  —  —  —  —  —  12  22  2  23  12  6  29  53  5  65  29  15  Nova S c o t i a  336  45  New B r u n s w i c k  851  106  CO  8 . 1 9  PART.  . ALDE.  —  —'•  Quebec  17.594  2,341  422  634  1,162  106  1,434  634  326  Ontario  27,367  3,644  658  986  1,808  164  2,233  986  507  Manitoba  8,157  1,064  192  288  528  48  652  288  148  Saskatchewan  6,050  798  144  216  396  36  489  216  111  Alberta  20,547  2,740'  494  742  1,360  124  1,679  742  381  B r i t i s h Columbia  13,224  1,756  317  475  871  79  1,076  475  244  Maj26  12,502  3,384  6,204  564  7,661.  3,384  1,739  CANADA  2^256  TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM THE USE OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL OIL BY TRUCK TRAFFIC IN CANADA AND THE PROVINCES, 1961  AIRBORNE WASTES PROVINCE  NO  Newfoundland  388;  31  P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d  164  Nova S c o t i a New  OTHER ORGANICS  ALDE.  7,894  41  14  686  302  14  13  3,312  17  6  288  128  6  1,496  124  29,544  176  53  2,596  1,141  57  1,313  115  24,593  181  48  2,201  969  58  Quebec  12,850  1,259  214,534  2,278  478  20,034  8,818  Ontario  20,919  2,033  352,610  3,643  776  32,809  14,439  1,119  Manitoba  3,451  382  48,864  781  132  4,876  2,146  232  Saskatchewan  3,686  374  59,004  703  138  5,601  2,465  213  Alberta  7,988  912  107,554  1,917  310  10,968  4,829  5,633  626  79,411  1,283  216  7,940  3,495  47,887  5,871  927,156  11,024  2,171  87,989  Brunswick  British CANADA  Columbia  x  CO  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  PART.  x  SO  (TONS)  38,728  •  '  698  567 381  V  3,346  AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE URBAN TRANSIT SYSTEM IN CANADA AND THE PROVINCES, 1961  AIRBORNE WASTES GASOLINE (1000 GALLONS)  PROVINCE  NO  x  SO  CO  (TONS) PART.  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  Newfoundland P r i n c e Edward  Island  CO  170  12  Quebec  2,200  149  12  3,036  16  264  116  5  Ontario  3,729  258  21  5,244  27  456  200  9  Manitoba  175  12  1  242  1  21  9  Saskatchewan  165  11  1  227  1  20  9  Alberta  518  35  3  718  4  1  62  27  1  2,151  146  12  2,981  16  5  259  114  5  9,108  617  49  12,558  65  22  1,092  480  22  Nbva S c o t i a New  20  235  Brunswick  British CANADA  Columbia  AIRBORNE WASTES  PROVINCE  DIESEL OIL (1000 GALLONS)  NO  x  SO  x  (TONS)  CO  PART.  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  Newfoundland ro  Prince Edward Island  713  96  17  26  48  Quebec  9,086  1,208  218  327  , 599  Ontario  5,047.  670  121  181  Manitoba  1,357  181  33  Saskatchewan  231  31  Alberta  536  B r i t i s h Columbia  Nova Scotia  59  26  13  54  740  327  168  333  30  411  181  93  49  90  8  111  49  25  6  8  15  1  19  8  4  71  13  19  35  3  44  19  10  296  39  7  11  20  2  24  11  5  17,266  2,296  414  622  1,140  104  1,407  622  319  New Brunswick  CANADA  that have populationsin excess of 5,000).  Table 32 shows  the estimates of the airborne emissionsc'oming from urban transit.  The pattern of fuel use and wastes produced by urban  transit, (and passenger buses) differs from other forms of transportation in that more diesel fuel is used than gasoline. Nearly twice as much diesel fuel was used for urban transit as  gasoline.  Carbon monoxide was the only waste produced  in greater quantity by gasoline combustion than diesel o i l combustion..  The geographic location of the wastes was such  that Quebec produced the most, followed by Ontario at roughly of 70 per cent of the Quebec total. Manitoba ranked third followed by the Western Provinces, the Eastern Provinces combined and finally by Saskatchewan. 3)  Passenger Bus Service - Interurban and Rural The Dominion Bureau of Statistics defines passenger bus  services as those services provided by the same 'vehicles as for urban transit in areas outside of those designated for urban 114 transit  Table 33 shows the Provincial use of gasoline and diesel 115  o i l by passenger bus services in 1961  .  Table 33 also  shows estimates for the airborne wastes produced .by passenger buses in 1961.  The grouping of the Atlantic Provinces in Table  33 is subsequently disaggregated according to the populations of the Atlantic Provinces in 1961 (see Table 34).  TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM THE USE OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL OIL BY THE URBAN TRANSIT SYSTEM IN CANADA AND THE PROVINCES, 1961  AIRBORNE WASTES  PROVINCE  CO  PART.  NO x  SO x  108  18  261  49  1,357  230  3,363  615  Ontario  928  142  5,425  Manitoba  193  34  42  (TONS)  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  Newfoundland P r i n c e Edward  Island  79  35  13  59  1,004  443  173  360  39  867  381  102  291  91  8  132  58  25  7  235  16  1  39  17  4  106  16  737  39  4  106  46  11  185  19  2,992  36  7  283  125  10  2,913  463  13,180  1,205  126  2,499  1,102  341  Nova S c o t i a New Brunswick Quebec  Saskatchewan Alberta British CANADA  Columbia  Sources: see text, pp. 214-220.  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM THE PASSENGER BUS SERVICE IN CANADA AND THE PROVINCES,  AIRBORNE WASTES PROVINCE AND FUEL •  ATLANTIC  QUANTITY . OF FUEL  NO  X  SO  CO  PART.  1961  (TONS)  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  X  ro ro ro  PROVINCES:  Gasoline Diesel Fuel Total  643,713 380,281  —  43.5 50.9  3.4 9.2  885.0 13.8  4.7 25.3  1.5 2.3  77.0 31.2  33.9 13.8  1.5 7.1  94.4  12.6  898.8  30.0  3.8  108.2  47.7  8.6  QUEBEC: Gasoline Diesel Fuel Total  1,835,841 2,900,871  124.0 386.1  9.7 2,535.6 69.6 104.3  13.3 191.4  4.3 17.5  220.6 236.3  97.1 104.3  4.3 , 53.7  —  510.1  79.3 2,639.9  204.7  21.8  450.9  201.4  58.0  1,082,430 2,635,054  73.1 350.4  5.7 1,498.1 63.3 94.8  7.8 173.0  12.5 15.9  130.1 214.8  57.4 94.8  2.5 48.8  423.5  69.0 1,590.9  180.8  18.4  344.9  521.1  51.3  ONTARIO: Gasoline Diesel Fuel Total  —  (TONS)  AIRBORNE WASTES PROVINCE AND FUEL  MANITOBA: Gasoline Diesel Fuel Total  QUANTITY OF FUEL  CO  PART.  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  SO x  351,734 . 302,217  23.8 40.0  1.9 7.2  484.7 10.8  2.6 19.9  0.8 1.8  42.2 24.5  18.6 10.8  0.8 5.6  —  63.8  9.1  495.5  22.5  2.6  66.7  29.4  6.4  •  •  SASKATCHEWAN: Gasoline Diesel Fuel Total  OTHER ORGANICS  NO  22,181 378,743  28.1 13.8  0.1 25.3  2.3  2.4 31.2  41.9  25.4  2.3  2.0 52.6  519.8 78.7  2.7 144.5  54.6  598.5  147.2  1.4 50.9  0.1 9.2  —  52.3  9.3  380,072 2,190,196  25.5 291.1 316.6  -  7.1  33.6  1.1 13.8 14.9  0.9 13.2  45.2 178.3  19.9 78.7  0.9 40.1  4.1  223.5  98.6  41.0  7.1  ALBERTA: Gasoline Diesel Fuel Total  ro  AIRBORNE WASTES PROVINCE AND FUEL  (TONS)  QUANTITY OF FUEL  NO  774,206 330,790  52.4 44.1  4.1 7.9  1,074.6 11.8  5.6 21.7  1.8  2.0  93.4 26.7  41.2 11.8  1.8 6.1  96.5  12.0  1,086.4  27.3  3.8  120.1  53.0  7.9  343.7 1,213.5  26.9 219.0  7,025.9 328.0  36.8 601.1  11.8 55.0  665.9 743.0  269.1 328.0  11<8 168.5  1,557.2  245.9  7,353.9  637.9  66.8  1,408.9  597.1  180.3  SO  CO  PART.  ALDE.  HYDROCARBONS TOTAL REACTIVE  OTHER ORGANICS  BRITISH COLUMBIA: Gasoline Diesel Fuel Total  CANADA: Gasoline Diesel Fuel  5,090,177 9,118,152  Total  Source: see text, p.  220.  ro ro  TABLE 54  PROVINCIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE CANADIAN IN 1961  PROVINCE  POPULATION  POPULATION  PER CENT OF TOTAL  Newfoundland  475,853  2.5  P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d  104,629  0.6  Nova S c o t i a  737,007  4.0  New Brunswick  597,936  3.3  Quebec  5,259,211  28.8  Ontario  6,236,092  34.2  Manitoba  921,686  5.1  Saskatchewan  925,181  5.1  Alberta  1,331,944  7.3  B r i t i s h Columbia  1,629,082  8.9  37,626  0.2  18,238,247  100.0  Yukon and N.W. C A N A D A  Territories•  Source: Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Canada Yearbook. 1965-64 (Ottawa: 1964) p. 158.  E.8.b)  THE EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM PASSENGER CARS AND CYCLES IN CANADA, 1961  MOTOR  As n o t e d above T a b l e 27 shows the e m i s s i o n o f a i r b o r n e wastes from the t o a l use o f g a s o l i n e and d i e s e l o i l on p u b l i c highways i n Canada, 1961. consumption  I f the e m i s s i o n f o r f u e l  from t r u c k s , urban t r a n s i t and passenger bus  services  are s u b t r a c t e d from t h e i r grand t o t a l s then e s t i m a t e s o f the f u e l consumption by passenger c a r s and motor c y c l e s a r e obtained.  T h i s o p e r a t i o n i s performed i n T a b l e 35 t o g e t h e r  w i t h e s t i m a t e s o f t h e a i r b o r n e wastes a t t r i b u t a b l e t o p r i v a t e motor v e h i c l e s , d e r i v e d w i t h the use o f e m i s s i o n f a c t o r s from T a b l e 23.  I t may  be seen from  T a b l e 35 t h a t passenger  c a r s used o v e r 80 p e r cent o f a l l t h e t o t a l g a s o l i n e consumed on Canadian highways i n 1961, and o v e r 15 p e r c e n t o f a l l diesel o i l .  The d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s and the f o r e g o i n g t a b l e s  t e s t i f i e s t o t h e commonly h e l d view t h a t passenger c a r s , by t h e m s e l v e s , c o n t r i b u t e g r e a t l y t o the p r o d u c t i o n o f a i r b o r n e wastes i n Canada: over 3.3 m i l l i o n tons o f carbon monoxide, n e a r l y 300,000 t o n s o f hydrocarbons, 170,000 tons o f n i t r o g e n o x i d e s , were a l l a t t r i b u t a b l e t o t h i s one s o u r c e i n 1961. The P r o v i n c i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f passenger c a r s and motor c y c l e s maybe e s t i m a t e d by an a n a l y s i s o f the number o f r e g i s t e r e d c a r s i n each P r o v i n c e , as  shown i n T a b l e 3 5 .  TABLE 35  EMISSION OF AIRBORNE WASTES FROM PASSENGER CARS IN CANADA, 1961  DATA FROM TABLE  ALL MOTOR VEHICLES Trucks  27  3,139,948  29  .669,402 9,108 5,090  31 33  Urban T r a n s i t Bus S e r v i c e  GASOLINE (1000 GA