UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

Highway investment in British Columbia, 1946-71 : a study of the spatial distribution of investment… Townsend, Don Frank 1973

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1973_A8 T69.pdf [ 12.3MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0101618.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0101618-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0101618-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0101618-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0101618-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0101618-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0101618-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0101618-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0101618.ris

Full Text

HIGHWAY INVESTMENT IN BRITISH COLUMBIA 19^6-71s A STUDY OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENT AND AN ASSESSMENT OF ITS IMPACT ON THE HIGHWAY NETWORK by DON FRANK TOWNSEND B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f Sydney,  19^3  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the Department of Geography We accept t h i s t h e s i s a s conforming  t o the  r e q u i r e d standard  THE  UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA April,  1973  In p r e s e n t i n g  t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the requirements f o r  an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree t h a t the  L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e  and study.  I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head o f my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s .  I t i s understood t h a t copying or p u b l i c a t i o n  of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be allowed without my written  permission.  DON FRANK TOWNSEND  Department o f  Geography  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada  Date  A p r i l , 1973  ABSTRACT  The  s u b j e c t o f t h i s study i s road investment  in  B.C.  made through the P r o v i n c i a l Department o f Highways i n the years  19^6-71,  The p a t t e r n o f investment  i s d e s c r i b e d and i s used  to i n d i c a t e p o l i c i e s and o b j e c t i v e s b e i n g evolved over the period.  An e f f o r t i s a l s o made t o e v a l u a t e the impact  investment  o f the  i n terms of the b e n e f i t t o c e r t a i n c l a s s e s o f road  users. Data on investment  were gathered from the Annual  Reports o f the M i n i s t e r , and assembled a c c o r d i n g to area, time p e r i o d and c l a s s o f r o a d .  The nature o f investment  item, has  been g i v e n c l o s e a t t e n t i o n because i t i s f e l t t h a t i t s r o l e has been somewhat overlooked i n the p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a n s p o r t i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and economic activity.  That r e l a t i o n s h i p has u s u a l l y been t r e a t e d i n summary  form, w i t h h i g h l y g e n e r a l i z e d i n d i c e s .  There i s an attempt  in  t h i s study t o f i n d a r a t i o n a l e of spending t o e x p l a i n the v a r i a t i o n s between a r e a s , and from which to draw i n f e r e n c e s about policies.  T h i s l e a d s on t o c l o s e r examination  o f the  trunk  network. Some s t r u c t u r a l measures o f improvement i n the n e t work were c a l c u l a t e d , but were not v e r y h e l p f u l .  T h i s study  argues t h a t the improvement has t o be v a l u e d by some user b e f o r e it  i s t r a n s l a t e d i n t o i n c r e a s e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y and  ii  responses  iii amongst economic a c t i v i t i e s .  Because improvements mean d i f -  f e r e n t t h i n g s t o d i f f e r e n t u s e r s and non-users, approaches t o e v a l u a t i o n have t o he taken.  different  A large truck i s  chosen f o r the case o f B.C., and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a r e s i m u l a t e d f o r the roads e x i s t i n g i n 1952,  1962 and 1971.  The changes i n  t r u c k o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a r e used t o explore the meanings o f •improvement' and the ' j u s t i f i c a t i o n *  of certain  investments.  An estimate o f annual savings t o t r u c k s from road improvements i s d e r i v e d from the simulated c o s t s . The approach through understanding  investment  i s found t o a i d  o f r o u t e and network development.  I t provides  c r i t e r i a by which t o evaluate o t h e r a s p e c t s o f road  develop-  ment, such as the road needs o f c e r t a i n p o p u l a t i o n s , and the e f f e c t s o f e x t e r n a l connections and through paths.  I t reveals  the h i g h l y v a r i a b l e p e r m i l e eost o f l i n k s , and emphasizes the interdependence  o f d i f f e r e n t types o f spending.  I t suggests  a r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n t e r - u r b a n and l o c a l spending and t r a f f i c , which should be worth f o l l o w i n g up i n other  situations.  Among o t h e r t h i n g s , i t i s d i s c o v e r e d t h a t there has been a tendency t o spend an i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n on the branch or f e e d e r roads.  I n the l a s t few y e a r s , there has been an  i n c r e a s i n g c o n c e n t r a t i o n on urban o r near-urban roads f o r the r e l i e f of congestion. to change over time.  The purposes o f roads and r o u t e s a r e seen The p a t t e r n o f spending has been much  a f f e c t e d by the d i f f i c u l t y o f road c o n s t r u c t i o n i n B.C. I n c r e a s e s i n e l e c t i o n years have stood out markedly. 'cost* the Province a s i g n i f i c a n t amount through tract  prices.  These have  inflated  con-  iv Some suggestions a r e made on how over-the-road savings c o u l d make t h e i r way through t o f r e i g h t r a t e s ,  sched-  u l e s and s e r v i c e s , and thus a f f e c t the c l i e n t economic a c t i vities.  The estimate o f annual s a v i n g s o f $15-20 m i l l i o n t o  l a r g e t r u c k s i s a c o n s e r v a t i v e and p a r t i a l measure o f b e n e f i t . The aim was not a d e f i n i t i v e measure o f improvement and p a r t i a l b e n e f i t , but t o use the measure i n d i f f e r e n t  con-  t e x t s and r e v e a l the d i f f e r e n t meanings and q u a n t i t i e s o f improvement.  Different  'justifications*  f o r l i n k investment  were p r o v i d e d from d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s .  The interdependence  of l i n k s and o f investment a l l o c a t i o n s i n the t o t a l system was emphasized.  I t i s the main s t r e n g t h o f t h i s m o d i f i e d network  p e r s p e c t i v e t h a t i t a l l o w s the simultaneous c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f flows, s t r u c t u r e , l i n k importance and n o d a l a c c e s s i b i l i t y .  TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract  Page i i  L i s t of Tables  viii  L i s t of Figures  x  Acknowledgement  x  i i  Chapter 1 - SCOPE OF THE STUDY 1.  Introduction  1  2.  Definitions  2  3.  Resume o f Spending: A c t u a l Amounts, Possible Objectives Investment by D i r e c t i o n and By Itemi A Hypothetical Generalized Programme  k.  5.  3 8  The P o t e n t i a l o f a Changed Road Network  10  6.  Summary o f the Argument  13  7.  O r g a n i z a t i o n o f the Study  1^  Chapter 2 - ANTECEDENTS OF THE STUDY 1.  T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d i e s i n Geography..  18 .  2.  D e s c r i p t i o n of Transport  20  3.  Investment i n highway f a c i l i t i e s  4.  Flows, t r a f f i c Behaviour and Simulated T r a f f i c  5. 6.  Networks ... ....  21 22  Investment, A c c e s s i b i l i t y and Economic Response S y n t h e s i s o f Themes and I n t e r e s t s i n the L i t e r a t u r e  25 28  Chapter 3 - TOTAL SPENDING ON HIGHWAYS IN B.C. 19^6-71, BY.DISTRICT 1.  I n t r o d u c t i o n - Aims and Sources  31  2.  A Conceptual Framework o f Spending ..  35  3.  A Formula f o r Amounts o f Spending?  ..  38  k.  A c t u a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Investment  ...  kO  v  vi Page Chapter 3 - 5 . 6.  P o s s i b l e V a l i d i t y o f the Postulated Pattern Breakdown o f the Whole P e r i o d -  ^7  C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i c e Changes 7.  The A l l o c a t i o n s over Time  8.  The D i s t r i c t s ' A l l o c a t i o n over Time  9.  48 52  ...  57  Emphasis w i t h i n Sub-periods  62  10. The T o t a l A l l o c a t i o n Reviewed Chapter 4 - SPENDING ON B.C. HIGHWAYS, ACCORDING TO CATEGORIES  6?  1.  Purpose o f the Chapter  71  2.  R e l a t i o n s h i p between Trunk Development and Branch Development  72  3.  Spending i n B.C., by Road System ....  77  4.  Changes i n the Trunk/Branch R a t i o Over Time  82  5. 6.  Meaning o f the T/B D i v i s i o n o f Spending R e l a t i o n s h i p between Maintenance  87  and C o n s t r u c t i o n Costs ............  90  7.  Maintenance Costs over A r e a  95  8.  Meaning o f Maintenance Cost P a t t e r n s .  97  Chapter 5 - INVESTMENT IN THE TRUNK NETWORK 1.  Introduction  100  2.  Importance o f the Trunk System  101  3.  Build-up o f the Trunk System,  1946-71 4.  L i n k Investment and Node A c t i v i t y  5.  Network Improvement from the Allocations Measurement o f Network Change  6.  105 ...  112 117 121  Chapter 6 - EVALUATING IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TRUNK SYSTEM 1.  Introduction  124  2.  Choice o f a Large Truck i n E v a l u a t i n g L i n k Changes  125  vii  Page Chapter 6 - 3 . 4. 5.  131  Trucks i n the T o t a l T r a f f i c Method o f S i m u l a t i o n o f Truck Operating C o s t s Output from the S i m u l a t i o n  Chapter 7 - CHANGE IN THE NETWORK INDICATED TRUCK COSTS  139 146  BY  1.  Introduction  154  2.  Investment A l l o c a t i o n s and Truck Cost Savings L i n k C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Truck  154  3.  Cost Savings  164  4.  L i n k Changes i n a Network Context ..  170  5.  Minimum Paths i n the Network  173  6.  The Chapter Reviewed  179  Chapter 8 - THE VITAL CONCERN - USE OF TIME AND COST SAVINGS  184  Chapter 9 - CONCLUSION 1.  The Approach  191  2.  The P a t t e r n Observed  194  3.  Measurement o f Improvement  199 205  BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX  I Changes i n E l e c t o r a l S i n c e 1946  Districts  I I The Trunk Roads, as Used i n T h i s Thesis APPENDIX I I I Content and Methods o f the S i m u l a t i o n of Heavy Truck Costs  219  APPENDIX  220 221  • • *  V l l l  LIST OF TABLES Table I.  Page I n f l u e n c e on Cost per M i l e o f the k6  Trunk Mileage II. III.  Breakdown o f Spending, by P e r i o d I n d i c a t o r s o f Road-user  Activity,  1950-72 IV.  V.  VI. VII.  IX. X. XI. XII.  XIII. XIV.  58  Grouping o f D i s t r i c t s A c c o r d i n g t o the Sub-period o f t h e i r Most I n t e n s i v e Activity  63  % R e d u c t i o n from 19^6-71 T o t a l a f t e r Adjustment f o r I n f l a t i o n  6^  T o t a l Spending i n the D i s t r i c t s , A c c o r d i n g to Item and To Road System, Percentage of T o t a l Spent on Branch System, by D i s t r i c t  XVI.  78 79  R e l a t i o n s h i p o f D o l l a r A l l o c a t i o n s and Flows, on S e l e c t e d L i n k s  117  S t r u c t u r a l Changes R e s u l t i n g from L i n k Addition  120  Percentage o f Free Speeds, Under Width Restrictions  1^3  I n d i c e s o f Free Speed and Normal Consumption, Due t o I n c r e a s i n g R i s e and F a l l  IV*  Percentage of F r e e Speeds, Under Average D a i l y Flows  1^5  I n d i c a t i v e F u e l Consumption a t Average Running Speeds  XV.  5^  Grouping o f D i s t r i c t s A c c o r d i n g t o the Sub-period o f t h e i r L a r g e s t Share o f T o t a l Spending ,  19^6-71  VIII.  53  1^5  Truck O p e r a t i n g Costs on S e l e c t e d L i n k s ....  1*4-7  R e l i a b i l i t y o f C a l c u l a t e d Costs  1^7  ix  Table XVII. XVIII.  Page R e l i a b i l i t y o f C a l c u l a t e d Speeds R e l a t i o n s h i p o f Investment,  Traffic  148 Flows  and Truck Operating Costs XIX. XX. XXI. XXII. XXIII. XXIV.  XXV.  Improvements i n Truck Operating Costs  161 164  Shimbel A c c e s s i b i l i t y Scores, 1971 Truck Costs Shimbel Index Scores, 1952 and 1971. S e l e c t e d Nodes  175  L i n k Occurrence In A l l Paths, 1952 and 1971  176  D i v e r s i o n o f T r a f f i c from Lake f e r r y , 1962-5  178  172  Kootenay  R e l a t i o n s h i p Between L i n k Occurrence and A c t u a l T r a f f i c , i n 1971» Selected Links  179  F o r - h i r e Trucks, F r e i g h t B.C. 1970  189  Movements,  X  LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.  2.  Page Spending on Highways as % of T o t a l Government Spending T o t a l Spending hy E l e c t o r a l  4  Districts,  1946-71  3.  41  T o t a l Spending per M i l e o f Road Open, 1946-71  4.  5.  43  T o t a l Spending per M i l e o f Road Improved, 1 9 4 6 - 7 1  45  Highway C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i c e Index, 1956-71  6.  7.  8.  9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  14.  50  R e l a t i o n s h i p o f Spending on Roads t o I n d i c a t o r s o f Road User A c t i v i t y  55  Share o f T o t a l Spending, A c c o r d i n g Sub-periods  61  D i s t r i b u t i o n of a D i s t r i c t ' s A c c o r d i n g t o Sub-periods  to  Total,  66  H y p o t h e t i c a l P r e s e n t a t i o n o f Trunk/Branch R a t i o o f Spending  73  G e n e r a l i z e d Diagrams o f the R e l a t i o n o f I n c r e a s i n g T r a f f i c Flow t o the Accumulating C a p i t a l and Maintenance Cost o f Facilities  75  Diagrams o f Trunk Mileage W i t h i n Electoral Districts  ••  81  Trunk/Branch Spending f o r S e l e c t e d D i s t r i c t s , 3-year Averages  83  Trunk/Branch Spending f o r S e l e c t e d D i s t r i c t s , Annually  86  Diagrams o f the R e l a t i o n s h i p o f Trunk and Branch Systems  88  xi Figure 15.  16.  Page R e l a t i o n s h i p o f C o n s t r u c t i o n , Maintenance and T r a f f i c Flows  93  Development o f the Trunk System, by P e r i o d  106  T o t a l Cost o f L i n k s i n the Trunk System, 19^6-71  107  18.  Cost per M i l e o f Trunk L i n k s , 1946-71  108  19.  Simulated Heavy-Truck 1952 Links  Costs, 156  Simulated Heavy-Truck 1962 Links  Costs,  Simulated  Costs,  17.  20.  21.  Heavy-Truck  157  1971 Links  158  22.  1 9 7 1 Costs R e l a t e d t o 1 9 5 2 Costs  159  23.  Spending per M i l e R e l a t e d to U n i t Savings i n Truck Costs Average Truck Costs p e r M i l e , 1971 Links  160 I67  Running Costs f o r Heavy Trucks A t I n c r e a s i n g Speed  168  Imbalance i n F r e i g h t Movements i n B.C., 1 9 7 0  186  24.  25.  26.  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  G a b r i e l l e was the s e v e r e s t c r i t i c and most w i l l i n g helper.  S p e c i a l thanks a r e due t o Roger L e i g h , f o r h i s  guidance and encouragement throughout, and t o Bob North and Ken Denike f o r t h e i r c r i t i c i s m s and suggestions. help with t h e computer o p e r a t i o n s Transport  L a r r y Meyer's  was i n d i s p e n s a b l e .  The  Development Agency made s u r v i v a l p o s s i b l e , by means  of a f e l l o w s h i p award.  My f e l l o w graduate students  helped t o  make the days i n t e r e s t i n g and the winters t o l e r a b l e . A s p e c i a l note o f a p p r e c i a t i o n i s due t o I s a b e l l and Alexandra, f o r the t y p i n g and i l l u s t r a t i o n s r e s p e c t i v e l y .  xii  CHAPTER 1  SCOPE OF THE STUDY  1.1  INTRODUCTION  The  i n t e n t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s i s to d e s c r i b e and  analyze road development i n B r i t i s h Columbia s i n c e World War I I , t r y i n g e s p e c i a l l y t o d i s c e r n p a t t e r n s  i n the a l l o c a -  t i o n s o f p r o v i n c i a l government spending t h a t w i l l  provide  some c l u e s t o the p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s e x i s t i n g f o r v a r i o u s times and f o r v a r i o u s a r e a s .  The d e s c r i p t i o n  on the main trunk network, which i s separated  concentrates out f o r a  s p e c i a l i n s p e c t i o n o f changes i n s t r u c t u r e and q u a l i t y , as r e l a t e d t o d o l l a r s spent on improvements. I t must be emphasized t h a t highways comprise  only  p a r t o f the t o t a l system o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n B r i t i s h Columbia, and a l s o t h a t investment i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s o n l y one o f a number o f means by which s o c i e t y can hope t o a c h i e v e d e s i r e d objectives.^"  Governments can a d j u s t the p r i o r i t y o f t r a n s -  p o r t a t i o n amongst the s o c i a l s e r v i c e s they p r o v i d e .  Businesses  can a d j u s t the t r a n s p o r t component o f t h e i r f a c t o r s o f production.  To consumers, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s an a d j u s t a b l e  of demand.  However, there  element  i s probably l i t t l e need t o argue  the case t h a t i n B.C. over the l a s t 25 y e a r s highway investment  2  has been a major t o o l of government, and i s a f i t t o p i c f o r geographic a n a l y s i s . 1.2  DEFINITIONS The term "highways" does not cover a homogeneous  entity.  On the c o n t r a r y , highways v a r y g r e a t l y i n t h e i r  purposes of s e r v i c e , t h e i r d e s i g n , t h e i r c a p a c i t y , traffic work.  composition, and t h e i r importance  their  t o the whole n e t -  W i t h i n one r e g i o n , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y r o u t e s  s e r v i n g mainly commuters or t o u r i s t s or l o c a l  recreational  a c t i v i t y , t r u c k t r a f f i c , and l e s s t a n g i b l e purposes such as p i o n e e r i n g or i n t e g r a t i o n . will  It i s likely  t h a t the  change over time and a r e a as s t r u c t u r a l and  purposes spatial  s h i f t s occur i n the economy, and t h a t these w i l l be r e f l e c t e d i n the a l l o c a t i o n s o f spending. The highway system,  i n t h i s study, i n c l u d e s a l l  highways, roads, t r a i l s , b r i d g e s and f e r r i e s which are administ e r e d , c o n s t r u c t e d , maintained, p a t r o l l e d or s u b s i d i z e d by, or  through, the p r o v i n c i a l Department o f Highways.  A l l shared  p r o j e c t s , where they have been d e t a i l e d i n the accounts o f the Annual Report of the M i n i s t e r o f Highways, are i n c l u d e d i n the g e n e r a l term, "highway system",  - f o r example, the  a c c e s s t o h y d r o - e l e c t r i c development on the Columbia R i v e r , or the main highways through n a t i o n a l p a r k s . a l s o i n c l u d e s the B.C.  The highway system  F e r r i e s D i v i s i o n , though  i t s allocation  w i l l be kept out o f most o f the a n a l y s i s . The reason f o r t h i s separate treatment i s i n the  3 range and i n f l u e n c e o f the o p e r a t i o n s o f the D i v i s i o n . whether a c r o s s r i v e r s o r a c r o s s g u l f s , connect-up o f the whole network.  Perries,  subsystems  With a mainland f e r r y , such as a t  G a s t l e g a r , or a t Kelowna, the range o f i n f l u e n c e i s r e l a t i v e l y local.  T h e r e f o r e , one i s on s a f e r ground i n a t t r i b u t i n g  costs  and g a i n s from those f e r r i e s t o the l o c a l o r s u r r o u n d i n g subsystems.  One o f the requirements o f network a n a l y s i s a p p l i e d  to geography i s a c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment i n l i n k s o f a subsystem and some o b s e r v a b l e response a t the same scale.  Not so w i t h the G u l f f e r r i e s , s i n c e the  connected a r e more numerous, more complex,  subsystems  and o f g r e a t e r  extent. The highways  system a l s o i n c l u d e s roads and  c o n s t r u c t e d o r maintained o f mining development,  trails  under the scheme o f g r a n t s - i n - a i d  and roads which a r e w i t h i n m u n i c i p a l  l i m i t s but which have been d e s i g n a t e d as a r t e r i a l s . The system excludes the l a b y r i n t h o f l o g g i n g  trails.  I t a l s o e x c l u d e s the enormous mileage o f roadway c o n s t r u c t e d and maintained by the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s .  This i s a s i g n i f i c a n t  e x c l u s i o n , s i n c e i n an i n c r e a s i n g l y urban s o c i e t y , a g r e a t e r burden o f the o v e r a l l r o a d c o n s t r u c t i o n and maintenance  will  s h i f t t o the l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s , and more p r o v i n c i a l funds w i l l be c h a n n e l l e d through the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and not through the 2 Department o f Highways.  1.3  RESUME OP SPENDINGt  PROVINCIAL TOTALS, POSSIBLE OBJECTIVES  I n B r i t i s h Columbia s i n c e 1 9 ^ 6 , the budget  allocations  4 to the highway system suggest  two d i s t i n c t p e r i o d s , d e s c r i b e d  simply as " i n c r e a s i n g p r i o r i t y " and " d e c r e a s i n g The  priority".  f i r s t f i f t e e n y e a r s peaked i n 1960-61, when the a l l o c a t i o n  reached  25 p e r cent o f the t o t a l expenditure  up from about 16 p e r cent i n 1947-48.  (see F i g u r e 1 ) ,  In recent years, greater  p r i o r i t y has been g i v e n t o education, h e a l t h and s o c i a l  ser-  v i c e s , so t h a t the a l l o c a t i o n t o highways has decreased t o around 11 p e r c e n t . F i g . 1 - Spending on Highways a s a Percentage Government Spending B.C. 1946-1972*  of Total  25 20 15 • 10 .  i VO  H  I  O  vO  I  o vO  I  H  I  ON O VTi VO  I  vO VO  CM  H  I  IS-  ^ p l o t t e d as 4- o r 5-year averages, t o i l l u m i n a t e the t r e n d s . ...dotted l i n e r e p r e s e n t s p r o v i n c i a l spending, n e t o f c r e d i t s from F e d e r a l Government and B.C. Hydro. Sources  B.C. Review o f Resources, P r o d u c t i o n and Government Finances, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950. B.C.  F a c t s and S t a t i s t i c s , I967, 1968, I969.  B.C. F i n a n c i a l and Economic Review, y e a r s I96I t o 1972, Department o f Finance, V i c t o r i a , B. C  5 A c t u a l spending on highways has m a i n t a i n e d an p r e s s i v e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e - from $91 y e a r s 1949 to $251  to 1952  ( i n c l u d i n g $3 m i l l i o n F e d e r a l  m i l l i o n i n 1959  to 1962  to $430 m i l l i o n i n 1969  and  m i l l i o n i n the  ( i n c l u d i n g $42  to 1972.  The  m i l l i o n Federal),  budget f o r 1973  as the main e x t e r n a l connections and (see F i g . 5,  1972,  Ch.  3).  i s e n t e r i n g onto a new  highways.  t o 1974  through to 1969»  to 1970,  suggesting  and  that  1971  l e v e l o f annual spending  on  T h i s w i l l p r o b a b l y not be f o r another "development"  expressed i n the widening o f b o t t l e n e c k s ,  of the f e r r i e s .  the  I t i s i n t h i s phase t h a t p a r o c h i a l -  p r o v i n c i a l t e n s i o n s become more pronounced - the  jurisdiction  the d i s r u p t i o n o f communities i s l o c a l ;  f o r r e l i e f appears l o c a l though may, the r e p e r c u s s i o n s  be  adding o f freeways  o r a l t e r n a t e s , c o n s t r u c t i n g by-passes, and r e o r g a n i z i n g  is local;  to  the  p h a s e d r a t h e r a " r e l i e f - o f - c o n g e s t i o n " phase t h a t w i l l  operations  will  through-routes were put  Spending i n 1969  has been e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y h i g h ,  province  to  T o t a l spending maintained some-  t h i n g o f a g e n t l y s l o p i n g p l a t e a u from 1957  in  three  payments),  1974 a l l o w s f o r $230 m i l l i o n - so the p e r i o d 1971 t o t a l about $650 m i l l i o n .  im-  o f r e l i e f i n one  the need  i n f a c t , be r e g i o n a l ; l i n k o r i n one  are p r a c t i c a l l y immediate on the adjacent  community  l i n k or community;  but the d e c i s i o n s on f u n d i n g and p r i o r i t y are s t i l l p r o v i n c i a l . The  preceding  paragraphs open up a c o n s i d e r a t i o n  some o f the o b j e c t i v e s o f highway development.  of  For a r e g i o n ,  s t a r t i n g from a poor base of t r a n s p o r t i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , there i s a tendency t o go through the f o l l o w i n g arrangement o f p r i o r i t y of objectives!^  6  access  t o known o r p o s s i b l e  resources;  p o l i t i c a l - s o c i a l i n t a n g i b l e s , i . e . , "connecting up the r e g i o n " , f o r both i n t e r n a l i n t e g r a t i o n and e x t e r n a l c o n t a c t , o r f o r s p r e a d i n g more evenly c u l t u r a l and economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s ; r e d u c i n g c o s t s o f p r o d u c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n through lower r u n n i n g and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s and t r a v e l time. The i n t e n t i o n i s t o s t i m u l a t e o r attract a c t i v i t y , often directed to a t t r a c t i n g investment from o u t s i d e the r e g i o n ; i n c r e a s i n g the r e l i a b i l i t y o f t r a v e l and supply; access t o s p e c i f i c s i t e s o f development, such as dams, i n s t a l l a t i o n s , and p i p e l i n e s ; encouraging and f a c i l i t a t i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l t o e x i s t i n g and new a r e a s ; f a v o u r i n g some i n d u s t r i e s and sub-regions over o t h e r s , through the q u a l i t y o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ; r e d u c t i o n o f the elements o f movement f o r which c o s t assessment i s i m p o s s i b l e o r extremely c o n t r o v e r s i a l - congestion, a c c i d e n t s , d i s comfort , inconvenience; r e d u c t i o n o f f r e i g h t and t r a v e l c o s t s through i n t e r - n o d a l competition;  indirectly,  i n f l u e n c e on " l i v e a b l e " a r e a s and on the supply o f l a n d f o r s p e c i f i c uses, through new a c c e s s , f e r r i e s , bypasses, l i m i t e d - a c c e s s freeways, toll facilities; short-term unemployment r e l i e f and s t i m u l u s t o a l o c a l economy; c a p i t a l investment i n the present t o reduce f u t u r e o p e r a t i n g and maintenance c o s t s o f the authorities. Because o f the range o f responses t o any investment i n t r a n s p o r t i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , i t i s very u n l i k e l y t h a t one o b j e c t i v e w i l l be pursued f o r i t s e l f a l o n e .  For instance,  has a s t r o n g b e a r i n g on ( f ) , and (d) c o u l d perhaps be as p a r t o f ( c ) .  (h) above considered  Given t h i s interdependence o f o b j e c t i v e s ,  7 there a r e , however, examples i n the B.C,  experience o f the  obvious predominance o f one o b j e c t i v e over o t h e r s . Reading i n the government r e p o r t s o f the mid-19*K)s, p a r t i c u l a r l y those of the R e h a b i l i t a t i o n Commission, suggests t h a t the demands on the highway a u t h o r i t i e s were p r o b a b l y q u i t e c l e a r l y and narrowly p e r e e i v e d .  The war would have  reminded  people o f the economic and p s y c h o l o g i c a l concern f o r n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y and communal i n t e g r a t i o n . demonstrated now  The war had  convincingly  the importance o f m o b i l i t y and motor power.  It  l e f t problems o f s o c i a l and economic r e h a b i l i t a t i o n and  absorption of labour.  The f i r s t major highways p r o j e c t s a f t e r  1945  were b a s i c a l l y attempts a t i n t e g r a t i o n - John H a r t High-  way  i n t o the Peace R i v e r d i s t r i c t , and the Southern Transpro-  v i n c i a l from Hope t o Keremeos and P e n t i c t o n , and a g a i n from Nelson t o C r e s t o n .  For these p r o j e c t s , a h i g h r a t e o f spending  was maintained from 1946  to  1952.  As the economy has developed, and as the highway network has been b u i l t up by the completion and improvement o f " o b v i o u s l y " urgent l i n k s , the a u t h o r i t i e s are f a c e d with a growing number o f demands w i t h f i n e r margins o f urgency. p u r e l y economic terms, the d i s p a r i t i e s ( i n f r e i g h t and  In  travel  c o s t s ) between v a r i o u s l i n k s i n the system have been g r e a t l y reduced.  The urgent t a s k s are now  l e s s "obvious";  i n v o l v e more s o c i a l i s s u e s which are i n c r e a s i n g l y and l e s s q u a n t i f i a b l e .  c h o i c e s now controversial  S t r i c t economic a n a l y s i s o f investment  p r o p o s a l s , n e v e r t h e l e s s , becomes more important i n the sense o f i d e n t i f y i n g and measuring what i s q u a n t i f i a b l e .  In a l e s s  8  than p e r f e c t p o l i t i c a l  system, i t i s e c o n o m i c a l l y and  socially  unsound t o wait f o r l o c a l p r o t e s t as an i n d i c a t o r o f r o a d needs. The main data i n p u t t o d e c i s i o n s on the a l l o c a t i o n o f road investment  i n B.C.  has been u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d  traffic  counts,-* u s u a l l y taken i n the peak months o f J u l y and August.^ To use such a c r i t e r i o n e x c l u s i v e l y over a l o n g p e r i o d would r e s u l t i n a uniform p a t t e r n , c e n t e r e d around the major  produ-  c i n g and the major populated a r e a s , extending a l o n g the  inter-  urban t r u n k s , and shading o f f i n t o the remote "economic wilderness".^  I f the a u t h o r i t i e s were bound t o t h i s  criterion,  then highway investment would always f o l l o w s t r u c t u r a l  and  s p a t i a l s h i f t s i n the economy t o the extent t h a t they i n f l u e n c e t r a f f i c flows.  Highways would then r e i n f o r c e economic-popula-  t i o n p a t t e r n s , and not h e l p t o mould them. the a c t u a l p a t t e r n o f investment  As we  shall  see,  over the p a s t 25 y e a r s shows  a severe d i s t o r t i o n away from such a simple p a t t e r n : s t r o n g e s t f a c t o r s i n t h a t d i s t o r t i o n appear t o be  the  physiography,  e x t e r n a l connection, and o f f i c i a l government p o l i c y p u r s u i n g specific  1.4  objectives.  INVESTMENT BY DIRECTION AND GENERALIZED PROGRAMME  BY ITEM*  A HYPOTHETICAL,  A r e g i o n a l highway system i s made up of i n t e r - u r b a n long distance a r t e r i e s (branches).  ( t r u n k s ) , and l o c a l lower-volume f e e d e r s  A v e r y p r i m i t i v e network, s e r v i n g unplanned  s e t t l e m e n t s , w i l l u s u a l l y have a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f branch  9 mileage, to farms,  i n the form o f sub-systems o f crude roads and  trails  f o r e s t s , mines and so on, the sub-systems b e i n g  connected by low q u a l i t y t r u n k s , by r a i l ,  or r i v e r t r a n s p o r t .  But with a c e n t r a l government programme o f development, and  8  an  economy t e n d i n g towards c e n t r a l i z a t i o n , a t t e n t i o n i s u s u a l l y d i r e c t e d towards the t r u n k s to improve the q u a l i t y , r a t h e r than to i n c r e a s e the mileage.  A t t h i s stage, the c h o i c e o f  p r o j e c t s i s r e l a t i v e l y l i m i t e d , e s p e c i a l l y where s e t t l e m e n t has preceded  the "Motor Age"  - s e t t l e m e n t appears  to dictate  the p r i o r i t i e s . A f t e r the major t r u n k s are completed,  more a t t e n t i o n  can be g i v e n t o the branches u n t i l such time as the i n c r e a s e i n t r a f f i c o r d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f the f a c i l i t y f o r c e s improvement, r e l o c a t i o n or replacement such an adjustment  o f a trunk l i n k .  ean occur w i t h i n a sub-region where the  f e e d e r s are b e i n g developed, populated a r e a s .  A link requiring  or elsewhere  i n the path t o major  Over a l o n g p e r i o d , once can expect some s h i f t  i n the trunk/branch r a t i o o f spending.  This r a t i o w i l l vary  amongst sub-systems o f the whole, w i l l v a r y f o r the whole system over time, and f o r p a r t i c u l a r sub-systems over Observing t h i s r a t i o f o r B.C.  roads s i n c e 19^6  time.  should i n d i c a t e  p a r t i c u l a r p o l i c i e s o f development p r e v a i l i n g from time t o time. As roadways are improved, maintenance c o s t s w i l l decrease, a t l e a s t f o r a s h o r t time a f t e r the improvement.^ Tarmac s u r f a c i n g a b o l i s h e s the need f o r grading?  good d e s i g n  and wide s h o u l d e r s reduce the damage caused by s p r i n g r u n o f f and washouts;  good d e s i g n a l s o reduces a c c i d e n t s and  congestion,  10 depending o f course on the r a t e o f t r a f f i c g e n e r a t i o n .  Rising  maintenance and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s i n d i c a t e the need f o r a major c a p i t a l investment  - b r i d g e r e p l a c i n g f e r r i e s i s the most  obvious example o f the s u b s t i t u t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s .  Re-routing  of t r a f f i c flows i s another way o f r e d u c i n g maintenance c o s t s in a district* of  the a l t e r n a t e r o u t e may occur i n another  the system and not be r e v e a l e d by the accounts  cular  part  o f one p a r t i -  district. I n an e a r l y stage o f road development, maintenance  c o s t s (M) w i l l be h i g h i n r e l a t i o n t o c o n s t r u c t i o n and improvement c o s t s ( C ) .  With a d e l i b e r a t e programme o f c o n n e c t i o n and  improvement, C w i l l r i s e r a p i d l y , and M w i l l tend t o decrease, on a per m i l e b a s i s .  I n a f u l l y developed  sub-system, with  v e r y low C, M w i l l r i s e a s t r a f f i c flow (F) i n c r e a s e s .  Increases  i n M t i e d t o i n c r e a s e s i n F i n d i c a t e an attempt t o m a i n t a i n a given q u a l i t y o f service.  The p a t t e r n o f M c o s t s p e r m i l e ,  over time and over area, w i l l i n d i c a t e something o f the i n t e n t i o n s o f the a u t h o r i t i e s w i t h r e g a r d t o r o a d development.  1.5  THE POTENTIAL OF A CHANGED ROAD NETWORK The  e a r l y development o f roads may be simply t o a l l o w  movement and t r a v e l , i . e . , b a s i c a c c e s s .  Beyond t h e stage o f  f i r s t connections, the aim i s g e n e r a l l y t o reduce t h e c o s t , time and d i f f i c u l t y  o f movement.  The r e d u c t i o n o f these elements  can have v e r y d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s , hence the use o f r o a d ment i n the p l a n n i n g f o r o t h e r o b j e c t i v e s . when and how the reduced  develop-  I t matters where,  c o s t s are a c h i e v e d , f o r change i n one  11 p a r t o f the t r a n s p o r t system e n t a i l s a rearrangement o f r e l a t i v e advantage and disadvantage  elsewhere.  A l l p a r t s o f the  system (or o f the economy) are competing f o r a l l o c a t i o n s ?  but  a l s o , some p a r t s o f the system are dependent on a l l o c a t i o n s t o o t h e r p a r t s o f the system. Each a l l o c a t i o n c o n t r i b u t e s t o the t o t a l s t r u c t u r e and q u a l i t y o f the whole system, but v a r y i n g amounts o f improvement can r e s u l t from s i m i l a r d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s , depend i n g on where they occur i n the network, on what f a c i l i t i e s are p r o v i d e d , and the time span assessed f o r use o f the lities.  faci-  There i s a conscious c h o i c e to be made between, say,  a l l o c a t i o n t o the e x t e n s i o n o f a low-grade p e r i p h e r a l l i n k , and a l l o c a t i o n t o the widening and improvement of a busy l i n k i n a v i t a l path.  By r e l a t i n g the a c t u a l a l l o c a t i o n s to the  amount o f improvement "bought" f o r the whole system, a p a t t e r n of  p r i o r i t y and p r e f e r e n c e may  emerge, w i t h i n d i c a t i o n s o f  p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s b e i n g pursued  from time t o time.  The r e d u c t i o n o f c o s t s o f movement c r e a t e s a  new  f i e l d o f economic p o t e n t i a l i n a b s o l u t e and i n r e l a t i v e terms. E x i s t i n g a c t i v i t y i n an a r e a may the disadvantage  of s i m i l a r a c t i v i t y i n other areas;  a c t i v i t y o f a d i f f e r e n t type may area."  1,0  be s t i m u l a t e d , sometimes t o  Such adjustments  new  be a t t r a c t e d t o the favoured  and r e l o c a t i o n s w i l l be p a r t l y r e -  f l e c t e d i n the p a t t e r n , volume and composition o f t r a f f i c flows - p r o v i d i n g t h a t the a c t i v i t i e s e x i s t i n g i n , o r a t t r a c t e d to,  an a r e a express a c o n s i s t e n t demand f o r r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .  Where the road investment p r o v i d e s a f i r s t l i n k , o r a l i n k to enable c o m p e t i t i o n with o t h e r modes o f t r a n s p o r t , o r a l i n k o f  12 s i g n i f i c a n t l y improved  q u a l i t y , one would expect a s i g n i f i c a n t  response by the t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y t o the new p o t e n t i a l o f lower r u n n i n g c o s t s , s h o r t e r t r i p times, i n c r e a s e d  l o a d dimen-  s i o n s , and r e - r o u t i n g o f t r i p s , p r o v i d e d t h a t the nature and l e v e l o f demand f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s s u s t a i n e d o r i n c r e a s e d . With the v a s t improvement o f t h e B.C. road system from 19^6 t o 1971i and the dramatic removal  o f o b s t a c l e s such as f e r r i e s  and mountain passes, the response o f the t r u c k i n g  industry  ought t o have been e q u a l l y s u b s t a n t i a l and dramatic, even a l l o w i n g f o r change w i t h i n the t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y  i t s e l f , due  to technology, o r g a n i z a t i o n , r e g u l a t i o n o r o t h e r f a c t o r c o s t s . There a r e important a t t e n u a t i n g  factors," "^ such as r a i l 1  com-  p e t i t i o n , o r the l a c k o f generated growth i n some a r e a s . Areas favoured by investment, but l a c k i n g i n response, a r e also informative  about the nature o f economic development.  An important c r i t e r i o n o f the success o f investment i s the degree t o which the p o t e n t i a l has been r e a l i z e d , and n o t j u s t the p o t e n t i a l improvement o f f e r e d .  Road investments, o f course,  are n o t made as an end i n themselves,  but should be r e l a t e d t o  the economic "mix" and " m a t u r i t y " o f an a r e a , f o r these charact e r i s t i c s s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e the type and degree o f response. O b s e r v a t i o n o f the t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y w i l l c e r t a i n l y not t e l l the f u l l B.C.  s t o r y o f the e f f e c t s o f road investment i n  A v e r y important e f f e c t i s i n the volume and r o u t i n g o f  t o u r i s t t r a f f i c , o r i n the good a c c e s s t o other a c t i v i t i e s as dam-building, mines and s a w m i l l s .  such  However, the t r u c k i n g  i n d u s t r y has been s i n g l e d out because o f i t s b e i n g h i g h l y s e n s i t i v e t o changes i n the main network's s t r u c t u r e and q u a l i t y .  13 A t t h i s stage, the study can be c o n s i d e r e d p a r t i a l l y c l o s e d and p a r t i a l l y open. investment  I t i s c l o s e d i n the sense t h a t the  p a t t e r n has been d e s c r i b e d , the network changes  measured, and the p o t e n t i a l f o r response  outlined.  I t i s open  i n the sense t h a t t r u c k i n g i s o n l y a s m a l l p a r t o f the response to road investment,  and t h a t wider r e p e r c u s s i o n s w i l l occur a s  a r e s u l t o f reduced  cost o f a c c e s s t o d i f f e r e n t  1.6  locations.  SUMMARY OF THE ARGUMENT Investment i n roads can be used as a means o f a c h i e -  v i n g p a r t i c u l a r o b j e c t i v e s , a p a r t from the immediate r e l i e f o f user demand o r r e d u c t i o n o f user c o s t . investment  Over a l o n g p e r i o d ,  a l l o c a t i o n s w i l l d e s c r i b e c e r t a i n p a t t e r n s , which  are evidence o f p o l i c i e s i n f o r c e .  A p o l i c y and a p a r t i c u l a r  d e c i s i o n r e l a t i n g t o i t can be a powerful determinant shape, s t r u c t u r e and q u a l i t y o f a network; be apparent  o f the  y e t , t h i s may n o t  from the u s u a l method o f r e l a t i n g c e r t a i n economic  i n d i c e s t o network measures. Comparison o f the road maps o f 19^5 and 1971 suggests t h a t one o f the main r e s u l t s o f investment by-road,  has been i n t e g r a t i o n -  o f s e t t l e m e n t s w i t h i n the p r o v i n c e , and o f the p r o v i n c e ,  as a whole, with the r e s t o f Canada and the U.S. northwest region.  The trunk system i s the instrument f o r those  o b j e c t i v e s a t t a i n a b l e through  investment  policy  i n road t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  to t h e e x t e n t t h a t a c t i v i t i e s depend on r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and t o the extent t h a t a f f e c t e d a c t i v i t i e s a r e u r b a n - o r i e n t e d . I n i t i a l s e t t l e m e n t and growth, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n B.C., a r e o f t e n  14 independent  o f the trunk system, but growth i n the h i g h e r  order a c t i v i t i e s i s u s u a l l y c l o s e l y r e l a t e d .  Improvements  and a d d i t i o n s t o the trunk system r e a r r a n g e the p o t e n t i a l f o r s o c i a l and economic i n t e r a c t i o n .  Examination  o f the trunk  system shows t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a change i n i n v e s t ment and a change i n t h a t p o t e n t i a l i s h i g h l y v a r i a b l e . Truck movements over the trunk system r e p r e s e n t a p a r t i c u l a r type o f i n t e r a c t i o n .  Demand f o r i t i s expressed  a t a c e r t a i n l e v e l o f c o s t o f movement.  Reductions  cost o f movement, g e n e r a l l y brought on by investment  i n the i n road  f a c i l i t i e s , w i l l a l l o w t h a t demand t o i n c r e a s e i f o t h e r d i t i o n s are permissive.  I f the trunk system i s extended  conwith  new l i n k s , then the induced demand o r the captured demand w i l l show, t o some extent, i n t r u c k movements.  Response i n the  t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y i s a v a l i d measure o f the e f f e c t o f road investment,  though the measurement i s p a r t i a l and entangled  w i t h many o t h e r e f f e c t s and p r e s s u r e s . The g a i n bought by an investment i n terms o f f a c i l i t i e s supplied} and when the investment  i s not measurable  i t depends v e r y much on where  i s made, i n r e l a t i o n t o t o t a l network  s t r u c t u r e , t r a f f i c g e n e r a t i n g a r e a s , and paths through the system.  D i f f e r e n t e v a l u a t i o n s g i v e d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s on  the "worth" o f investments  1.7  i n road  facilities.  ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY To p l a c e the study i n i t s f i e l d , and t o show the  i n t e r e s t s b e i n g e x e r c i s e d , a b r i e f review o f s i m i l a r o r r e l a t e d  s t u d i e s i s g i v e n i n Chapter  2.  Chapter  3 reduces a g r e a t  d e a l o f i n f o r m a t i o n on a c t u a l spending t o a few summary p a t t e r n s , t h e main e f f o r t b e i n g d i r e c t e d towards some g e n e r a l statements  about the f a c t o r s determining investment  c u l a r d i s t r i c t s , and an attempt priorities.  The attempt  i n parti-  t o suggest arrangements o f  i s c a r r i e d over i n t o Chapter 4,  where the t o t a l s a r e broken down i n t o c l a s s e s o f r o a d and c a t e g o r i e s o f spending.  The c l a s s e s and the c a t e g o r i e s a r e  seen t o be inter-dependent and s u b s t i t u t a b l e t o some e x t e n t . The dominance o f the trunk system i n the p a t t e r n s and programmes o f investment  i s then obvious, so t h a t Chapter 5  separates the trunk system f o r c l o s e r examination.  The huge  t o t a l c o s t and c o s t p e r m i l e f o r a few v i t a l l i n k s stand out in this description.  Some suggestions a r e made about the  p o s s i b l e r e a c t i o n s o f u s e r s and a c t i v i t i e s t o trunk  investment.  Some major s t r u c t u r a l changes a r e measured, and r e l a t e d t o the c o s t o f a c h i e v i n g them - b u t i t i s s t r e s s e d t h a t the s t r u c t u r a l measures alone a r e n o t a c l e a r i n d i c a t o r o f a c t u a l gain. Chapter most important  6 l o o k s a t t r u c k o p e r a t i o n s as one o f the  c l a s s e s o f road u s e r s .  used t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e i r importance  The a v a i l a b l e data a r e  i n B.C. p a r t i c u l a r l y .  Trucks a r e used as the b a s i s o f measurement o f l i n k  quality,  and a simple s i m u l a t i o n o f o p e r a t i n g c o s t s i s c o n s t r u c t e d , drawn from many experiments r o a d i n v e n t o r y f o r B.C.  elsewhere  and a c o m p i l a t i o n o f a  Some i n d i c a t i o n s o f the r e l i a b i l i t y  o f the output o f t h i s a r e p r o v i d e d from o t h e r sources and from p e r s o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n s , made i n J u l y and September o f 1972.  16 Simulated  t r u c k c o s t s a r e then a p p l i e d t o the n e t -  work i n Chapter 7> not so much t o d e s c r i b e what has happened, as t o show how d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e s and measurements can be a p p l i e d t o d e s c r i p t i o n .  T h i s method b r i n g s out the v a r y i n g  meaning o f ' l i n k importance'.  Improvements a r e seen t o occur  on d i f f e r e n t s c a l e s , a c c o r d i n g t o the p e r s p e c t i v e used. Chapter 8 g i v e s s p e c i a l treatment t o an  important  c o n s i d e r a t i o n - how road improvements might work through t o t r u c k o p e r a t o r o r user s a v i n g s . the B.C. s i t u a t i o n a r e attempted. l i g h t s the l a c k o f usable d a t a .  Some estimates  o f gain f o r  The attempt a t l e a s t  high-  The c o n c l u s i o n i n Chapter 9  b r i n g s t o g e t h e r the f a c t u a l f i n d i n g s and some g e n e r a l thoughts a r i s i n g from the study.  17 REFERENCESi 1 C. J , Oort, C r i t e r i a f o r Investment i n the I n f r a s t r u c t u r e of I n l a n d T r a n s p o r t , OBCD, P a r i s , undated. 2 The p r o v i n c i a l government p r o v i d e s an annual g r a n t t o t h e m u n i c i p a l i t y o f $25 p e r c a p i t a f o r "highways, p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l , p o l i c i n g , and p a r k s " . I t a l s o pays 100 p e r cent f o r d e s i g n a t e d arterials; and f o r approved secondary roads, i t pays 50 p e r cent o f c o n s t r u c t i o n and 40 p e r cent o f maintenance. The a c t u a l r a n t f o r highways alone was $ 4 . 5 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 5 9 - 6 0 , now up t o 64.5 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 7 1 - 2 . Source« B.C. F i n a n c i a l and Economic Review. J u l y 1972, pp. 3 3 , 3 7 , Department o f F i n a n c e , V i c t o r i a , B.C.  f  3 R. W i n f r e y and C. Z e l l n e r d e s c r i b e t h r e e phases i n the U.S. experience - the development p e r i o d , the roadway s u r f a c i n g p e r i o d , and the h i g h - c a p a c i t y p e r i o d . The B.C. experience can be d e s c r i b e d i n s i m i l a r f a s h i o n , though the a c t u a l phases occur a t s i g n i f i c a n t l y l a t e r dates. NCHRP Report No. 1 2 2 , Highway Research Board, ( 1 9 7 1 ) . 4 T h i s g e n e r a l i z e d statement i s drawn from a r e a d i n g o f many s t u d i e s r e l a t e d t o the r o l e o f t r a n s p o r t i n development n o t a b l y Fromm (1965), Roberts ( 1 9 6 6 ) , W i l s o n (1966), Rimmer ( 1 9 7 D , O'Connor (1965), Hawkins ( 1 9 5 8 and i 9 6 0 ) , Brown ( 1 9 6 6 ) ,  U.S. Department o f Commerce (1964).  5 T h i s o p i n i o n has been confirmed i n d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h o f f i c i a l s o f the Department o f Highways. The l e s s concrete but more p o w e r f u l i n p u t t o d e c i s i o n s has been p o l i c y determined o u t s i d e the Department o f Highways, e s p e c i a l l y concerning a l l o c a t i o n s t o t h e i n t e r - u r b a n trunk system. 6 " U n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d " i n t h a t the automatic r e c o r d e r s do not d i s t i n g u i s h between d i r e c t i o n s o f t r a f f i c ; a l s o , the t o t a l r e c o r d e d i s d i v i d e d by 2 , as i f every v e h i c l e had o n l y 2 a x l e s . 7 C o n d i t i o n s r e q u i r e d f o r t h i s uniform p a t t e r n o f spending are e l a b o r a t e d i n Chapter 3 , S e c t i o n 2 . 8 Winfrey and Z e l l n e r , NCHRP Report No. 1 2 2 , o p . c i t . , p. 3 , d e s c r i b e such a s i t u a t i o n . R. Lachene ( 1 9 6 5 ) , p. 1 8 3 - 9 6 ; E. T a a f f e e t a l . , ( 1 9 6 3 ) , p. 5 0 3 - 2 9 .  9  NCHRP Report No. 42, (1965).  10 T h e o r e t i c a l bases f o r such adjustments a r e s e t out i m B. Berry and W. G a r r i s o n , ( 1 9 5 8 ) , p. 3 0 4 - 1 1 ; J . P a r r and K. Denike, ( 1 9 7 0 ) , p. 5 6 7 , 5 8 6 ; M. W i l l s , ( 1 9 7 D , Ch. 5 ; and D. Winch ( 1 9 6 3 ) . 11  R. Stroup and L. Vargha ( 1 9 6 1 ) , pp. 1 - 1 2 .  CHAPTER 2  ANTECEDENTS OF THE STUDY  2.1  TRANSPORTATION STUDIES IN GEOGRAPHY In t r a n s l a t i n g economic and s o c i a l behaviour i n t o  s p a t i a l terms, i t i s i n e v i t a b l e t h a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n becomes a major concern t o geographers.  I t i s the means o f l e a s t  e f f o r t f u n c t i o n s o f human i n t e r a c t i o n ; component i n p r o d u c t i o n a permissive ges  i t i s an important  f u n c t i o n s and demand curves;  f a c t o r i n s p e c i a l i z a t i o n of production,  i n chan-  i n the range o f markets, and i n the tendency towards  p e r f e c t knowledge amongst economic e n t i t i e s . and  i t is  For stimulation  development o f the economic body, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the  economically  backward c o u n t r i e s , the c i r c u l a t o r y system has  been g i v e n v e r y  close inspection.  gradually increased  R e g i o n a l geography has  i t s r e c o g n i t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n as a  moulding f o r c e on r e g i o n a l c h a r a c t e r . (1956), I s a r d  (1956), and G a r r i s o n  have e s t a b l i s h e d a f o u n d a t i o n  x  The work o f Ullman  (1959-60) can be s a i d t o  f o r transportation  studies  w i t h i n geographic i n q u i r y . The had  f u n c t i o n and form dichotomy o f geography has  i t s expression,  too, i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n research.  Questions  o f f u n c t i o n came from the mainstream o f economics i n t o the  18  g r a v i t y model f o r m u l a t i o n s and i n t o the a m p l i f i c a t i o n o f c e n t r a l p l a c e theory and l a t e r i n t o d i f f u s i o n s t u d i e s .  The  most i n t e r e s t i n g treatment o f form has been through network analysis.  These models have p r o v i d e d geographers w i t h a  new p e r s p e c t i v e  and a b e t t e r framework on which t o d e s c r i b e 2  spatial interaction. and  Flows o f goods and people, c h o i c e  l o c a t i o n o f r o u t e s , impacts o f and adjustments t o changes  i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y , l a n d use p a t t e r n s , place functions realistic  and h i e r a r c h y  questions of c e n t r a l  have a l l been g i v e n a more  and complete treatment v i a network concepts and  techniques. T h i s t h e s i s draws t o g e t h e r two streams o f i n t e r e s t * (1) and last  the r o l e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n (2) the s t r u c t u r e  i n economic development,  o f networks.  E s p e c i a l l y over the ,  twenty y e a r s , i n the programs o f a i d from abroad f o r  underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s , of prime importance.  transport  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e has been  Only r e c e n t l y has t h e r e been some  drawing back from t h i s p o s i t i o n , - ^ as e x p e c t a t i o n s o f r e s u l t s have not always been f u l f i l l e d .  A c r i t i c a l aspect o f invest-  ment i s the new p o t e n t i a l created? where c a p i t a l i s v e r y scarce, p o t e n t i a l has been r e a l i z e d .  even more c r i t i c a l ,  i s the degree t o which I n the f o l l o w i n g  p a r t o f the new p o t e n t i a l c r e a t e d  that  chapters,  by r o a d investment i n  B r i t i s h Columbia w i l l be measured, and an attempt w i l l be made t o i n d i c a t e how t h a t p o t e n t i a l has been r e a l i z e d .  20 2.2  DESCRIPTION OF TRANSPORT NETWORKS In the d e s c r i p t i o n o f network s t r u c t u r e , the a b s t r a c -  t i o n o f the t r a n s p o r t system from i t s broader s o c i a l and economic context  seems t o imply some d e t e r m i n i s t i c dynamic o f growth  inherent  i n the network i t s e l f .  Some s t u d i e s have  constructed  networks from models o f t r a n s p o r t development,-* o r from models o f economic b e h a v i o r , ^ o r from models guided by a p a r t i c u l a r 7  constraint o f length, cost, connectivity, e t c .  The assumption  o f c o n s i s t e n t o r c o o l l y o b j e c t i v e decision-making i s v i t a l , t o such models;  but i t can be argued t h a t there  i s such v a r i a t i o n  w i t h i n p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s and decision-making t h a t t h i s  process,  i t s e l f , becomes an important f a c t o r i n the r e a l i z e d s t r u c t u r e o  and  q u a l i t y o f networks.  Considerations  of "social  cohesion"  o r " p o l i t i c a l impact" o r "minimum s o c i a l d i s r u p t i o n " r e a l l y do inform many d e c i s i o n s on the p r o v i s i o n o f t r a n s p o r t yet they cannot be f u l l y b u i l t  i n t o the models  from e m p i r i c a l evidence elsewhere. to discover,  from the p a t t e r n s  facilities,  constructed  This thesis w i l l  attempt  o f investment, some o f the p o l i c y  o b j e c t i v e s which might have i n f l u e n c e d a l l o c a t i o n s o f investment i n B, C,  The network w i l l then be seen as a composite o f  v a r i o u s motives, which cannot be f u l l y d e s c r i b e d by one summary measure, provide but  A measure o f c o n n e c t i v i t y , o r a c c e s s i b i l i t y ,  may  a neat summary o f a p h y s i c a l c o n d i t i o n o f the network;  i t t e l l s l i t t l e about the meaning o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o the  v a r i o u s u s e r s and non-users o f the network.  21 2.3  INVESTMENT IN HIGHWAY FACILITIES The d e s c r i p t i o n o f r o a d investment,  following i n  t h i s t h e s i s , s t a y s w i t h i n the t r a d i t i o n o f chorography. is a first,  It  u s e f u l step towards r e l a t i n g t h i s one q u a n t i t y  to o t h e r d a t a . roads i n B.C.  There i s a g e n e r a l p a t t e r n o f development o f t h a t p a r t l y corresponds w i t h the  sequence d e s c r i b e d by T a a f f e e t a l . ( 1 9 6 3 ) .  ideal-typical  I t i s probably  more a c c u r a t e t o d e s c r i b e t h e i r "phases" as p r o c e s s e s which had a l r e a d y been i n a c t i o n w e l l b e f o r e t h i s study opens, and which c o i n c i d e , o v e r l a p , o r compete with each o t h e r over o and over a r e a . ^  time  The p r o c e s s e s seem t o have been shaped more  by d e l i b e r a t e p o l i c y , r a t h e r than by the " n a t u r a l " or "spontaneous" adjustments  i m p l i e d i n T a a f f e ' s study.  important d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t t h e i r model was  Another  u n a f f e c t e d by  e x t e r n a l l a n d connections, whereas e x t e r n a l c o n n e c t i o n has been a v e r y powerful i n f l u e n c e i n the development o f roads i n B.C.  The problems and adjustments  involved i n considering  e x t e r n a l c o n n e c t i o n f o r a network, were t r e a t e d by Kansky ( I 9 6 3 , p. 64), New  Brunswick;  and by K i s s l i n g  ( I 9 6 8 ) f o r Nova S c o t i a  and  however, the degree o f w e i g h t i n g o f nodes f o r  the exogenous f a c t o r remains a c o n t e n t i o u s i s s u e .  Smith  (I963) found d i s t o r t i o n i n the p a t t e r n s o f demand f o r f r e i g h t movement t o and from b o r d e r - a r e a towns. W i t h i n the p a t t e r n o f t o t a l spending, items o f c o s t , the changing  importance  the o b j e c t i v e s b e i n g pursued.  t h e r e are  o f which may  indicate  For i n s t a n c e , there i s some  t r a d e - o f f between maintenance c o s t s and c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s , and between user c o s t s and o p e r a t o r c o s t s .  The highway  22  engineering  l i t e r a t u r e abound w i t h t h e o r e t i c a l and e m p i r i c a l  s t u d i e s o f such r e l a t i o n s h i p s , which can be roughly r i z e d as those d e a l i n g w i t h f a c i l i t i e s , " ' 1  0  catego-  and those d e a l i n g  with t r a f f i c . "*""*" The American A s s o c i a t i o n o f S t a t e Highway Officials,  the Canadian Good Roads A s s o c i a t i o n , the Highway  Research Board and UK Road Research L a b o r a t o r y p u b l i c a t i o n s have s e t up c r i t e r i a considered  f o r the design,  s t r u c t u r e and m a t e r i a l s  necessary f o r v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f s e r v i c e i n v a r i o u s  p h y s i c a l and t r a f f i c  conditions.  The NCHRP Report No. 42  ( 1 9 6 7 ) has d e s c r i b e d the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o n s t r u c t i o n and maintenance, a t o p i c t r e a t e d as w e l l i n the exhaustive textbooks o f Oblesby and Hewes ( I 9 6 3 ) Goetz ( i 9 6 0 ) . cal  These s t u d i e s show t h a t there a r e v i t a l  considerations  of the network.  and Woods, Berry and  a f f e c t i n g the e v e n t u a l  s t r u c t u r e and q u a l i t y  The argument t h a t e n g i n e e r i n g  not n e c e s s a r i l y optimal  techni-  solutions are  i n a s p a t i a l sense may w e l l be coun-  t e r e d with the argument t h a t many d e s i r a b l e s p a t i a l arrangements have no f e a s i b i l i t y i n e n g i n e e r i n g  2.4  FLOWS, TRAFFIC BEHAVIOUR, AND SIMULATED TRAFFIC  The one  study o f t r a f f i c and flows moves highway  engineering  step n e a r e r t o t h a t realm o f geography known as s p a t i a l  analysis. son  terms.  Beckman ( I 9 6 7 ) ,  (1962) have explored  Quandt ( i 9 6 0 ) ,  the theory  and Ford and F u l k e r -  o f flows i n networks, and  George e t a l . ( I 9 6 I ) and Gerlough and C a p e l l e t h e o r i z e d on t r a f f i c behaviour i n a l i n k .  (1964) have  There has been much  23 e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s o f the behaviour o f v e h i c l e s under d i f f e r e n t conditions.  The  AASHO Road T e s t has  economy s t u d i e s s i n c e 1 9 5 9 .  been the b a s i s o f highway ( 1 9 6 6 ) has  De W e i l l e  s i m i l a r s e r i e s o f t a b l e s , r e l a t i n g r o a d design running speeds, r e l a t i n g o p e r a t i n g t i n g c o s t s , and of the U.S.  so on.  The  compiled a  to v e h i c l e  c o n d i t i o n s to v e h i c l e opera-  Highway Research Board, an agency  N a t i o n a l Research C o u n c i l , has  c a r r i e d out many  12 s t u d i e s on s p e c i f i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s .  These f i n d i n g s p r o v i d e  an  understanding o f the v a r y i n g c o s t o f i n t e r a c t i o n under v a r y i n g c o n d i t i o n s , an i n c o n s t a n t o f the g r a v i t y model. f i n d i n g s , absorbing  r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t a f f e c t s the workings  Geographic i n q u i r y a c c e p t s and  them i n t o a g e n e r a l  Gauthier ( 1 9 6 8 ) and K i s s l i n g  uses such  concept o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y .  (1969) have converted t e c h n i c a l  data i n t o g e n e r a l i z e d c o s t s o f movement.  The  t i v e response o f t r a f f i c f l o w s ,  c o s t s to d i f f e r e n t  times and  apparently  sensi-  13  facilities,  c o n d i t i o n s and  s p a t i a l a n a l y s i s should pay o f movement - t h i s may the c o n c e n t r a t i o n  traffic  composition,  J  suggests t h a t  c l o s e r a t t e n t i o n to the  "friction"  have been somewhat n e g l e c t e d  because o f  on nodes, urban c e n t r e s , urban f u n c t i o n s ,  K i s s l i n g * s work has  etc.  somewhat balanced t h a t r e c o r d i n s t u d i e s  r e l a t i n g economic i n d i c e s to network measures. Theoretical formulations, describe  t r a f f i c as homogeneous.  to p r o v i d e  i n c l u d i n g the g r a v i t y model,  E m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s have attempted  a breakdown o f the composition o f t r a f f i c . * * "  This  1  i s an important c l u e i n the geographer's understanding o f nature and  extent  i t describes.  The  o f i n t e r a c t i o n , and  the  o f the s p a t i a l arrangements  assumption o f homogeneity o f t r a f f i c  i s as  24 flawed as an assumption o f u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d p r o d u c t i v e a c t i v i t y at a point of t r a f f i c generation;  but the r e g u l a r i t i e s i n  observed  flows are not y e t s u f f i c i e n t l y e s t a b l i s h e d t o be  from one  case to another,  e v a l u a t i o n or impact  usable  a weakness w i t h which most p r o j e c t  s t u d i e s have t o work.  While some s t u d i e s have t r a n s l a t e d i n t e r a c t i o n t r a f f i c f l o w s , o t h e r s have used commodity f l o w s . ^ 1  into  In a l l  cases, t h e r e i s an attempt t o r e l a t e concrete phenomena t o a b s t r a c t concepts.  The  same attempt i s made i n r e l a t i n g con-  cepts to r o u t e s , networks, and rank order o f towns -  another  l e v e l o f a b s t r a c t i o n where " s p a t i a l a n a l y s i s " d i s p l a c e s the "geography o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , " A h i e r a r c h y o f complexity  can be d i s c e r n e d amongst  the phenomena and concepts used i n the a n a l y s i s o f s p a t i a l relationships.  At the base are raw  or simple a s p e c t s of move-  ment - v e h i c l e counts, p e d e s t r i a n counts, commuters, f r e i g h t r a t e s , t r u c k t r i p s , c a p i t a l movements, e t c .  A t a second l e v e l ,  s u g g e s t i n g some simple p a t t e r n s e i t h e r i n a c t u a l i t y o r i n one's way  o f o b s e r v i n g the world, t h e r e occurs m i g r a t i o n , commodity  f l o w s , bus t i m e t a b l e s , l a n d use d i s t r i b u t i o n s , newspaper c i r c u l a t i o n , origin-destination patterns.  At a higher l e v e l ,  one  r e f e r s t o the a b s t r a c t forms - h i n t e r l a n d s , s e r v i c e t r i b u t a r y areas, settlement p a t t e r n s , urban p l a c e h i e r a r c h i e s , t r a n s p o r t networks.  The  top l e v e l i s made up o f the concepts,  such  as  demand, i n t e r a c t i o n , a s s o c i a t i o n , a c c e s s i b i l i t y , dominance. the f o l l o w i n g chapters, the concept  of a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i l l  g i v e n i d e n t i f i a b l e form by the use o f n e t w o r k s , ? and 1  In  be  practical  25 measurement by the o b s e r v a t i o n o f t r u c k performance.  2.5  INVESTMENT, ACCESSIBILITY, AND ECONOMIC RESPONSE The r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment  in facilities  and improved a c c e s s i b i l i t y a l o n g a l i n k i s q u i t e s t r a i g h t f o r ward.  The r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment  whole network i s more i n v o l v e d .  Burton  and change over the  ( I 9 6 2 ) p r o v i d e d a neat  and simple treatment o f the d i f f e r e n t g a i n s r e s u l t i n g from the d i f f e r e n t placement o f investment  i n a network.  ( 1 9 6 9 ) presented a method o f measuring a " l i n k * s to an e n t i r e system".  Werner ( 1 9 6 8 )  Kissling importance  suggested a more i n v o l v e d  measurement o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p between h i n t e r l a n d changes and network o r r o u t e changes. The next step, r e l a t i n g investment  and network changes  to s o c i a l and economic change, i s a more t e n t a t i v e one. response  The  has t o be simulated, o r measured through a s u r r o g a t e .  S i m u l a t i o n by means o f a g r a v i t y model has been questioned and r e f i n e d by many w r i t e r s , n o t a b l y C a r r o t h e r s (1956), Neidercom and Bechdolt  ( 1 9 6 9 ) , Burch  (1961) and B r i t t o n (1971).  Because  o f changing parameters o f i n t e r a c t i o n (such as t e r r a i n , o r the seasonal demand f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) , a g r a v i t y model has t o be a d j u s t e d from case t o case.  I n the B.C. economy, parameters  o f i n t e r a c t i o n v a r y from s u b - r e g i o n t o sub-region, depending mainly on the degree o f dependence on the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , ^ 1  the p h y s i c a l d e s i r a b i l i t y o f an a r e a , and the degree o f d i f f i culty of t r a v e l .  G r a v i t y models a r e even more suspect where  there i s c o m p e t i t i o n between modes o f t r a n s p o r t .  26 W i l l s (1971i p. 21) weighted  d i s t a n c e s between p o i n t s  by a s c a l e r e l a t i n g t r a v e l speed t o type of s u r f a c e - a  genera-  l i z e d s c a l e , s i n c e data l i m i t a t i o n s were q u i t e severe.  Evidence  20 from road user s t u d i e s  would suggest t h a t the speed of 45  mph  a t t r i b u t e d to 2-lane paved roads i s too h i g h , e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e the simulated flows were t o be r e l a t e d to a c t u a l t r a f f i c of  the summer months when c o n g e s t i o n i s g r e a t e s t .  so, then i t might account  flows  If this i s  f o r a p o r t i o n o f the u n u s u a l l y l a r g e  21 exponent  of 2.7  which gave the b e s t p r e d i c t i o n from the g r a -  v i t y model ( W i l l s , 1971i  p. 27).  Further, h i s scale implied  t h a t g r a v e l roads caused a 30 per cent g r e a t e r r e s t r i c t i o n movement than 2-lane paved roads 1  on  the r e s t r i c t i o n i s probably  s t r o n g e r than 30 per cent, s i n c e o t h e r elements a p a r t from t r a v e l speed, such as d i s c o n f o r t , hazard, and wear and  tear,  22 enter i n t o the p e r c e p t i o n of d i s t a n c e .  The measures of both  r e s t r i c t i o n (denominator) and a t t r a c t i o n (numerator) become even more c o n t r o v e r s i a l when d e a l i n g with s e a s o n a l t r a f f i c , with flows b i a s e d by t r a f f i c o f a p a r t i c u l a r  and  type.  As f o r s u r r o g a t e s and i n d i c e s o f development, d i f f e r e n t measures are a p p l i c a b l e i n d i f f e r e n t circumstances,  particularly  depending on the m a t u r i t y o f the economy, -* and on the main 24 2  f u n c t i o n o f the road improvement.  I f the investment  provided  i n i t i a l access to a developed a r e a , then t r a f f i c would be generated quite early,  J  so than an index o f a c t i v i t y r e l a t e d to  road users or to h i g h e r - o r d e r f u n c t i o n s would be a p p r o p r i a t e . I f the investment  provided access f o r road-oriented  initial  development, then a s u i t a b l e measure of response would be employment or p r o d u c t i o n over a l o n g term.  I f an  investment  27 r e l i e v e d c o n g e s t i o n o f e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , then i n d i c e s o f response traffic  flows.  c o u l d be r e t a i l  suitable  s a l e s , or t r i p times, or  In urban or p e r i - u r b a n areas p a r t i c u l a r l y ,  l a n d v a l u e s are v e r y s e n s i t i v e t o a c t u a l or expected in accessibility.  changes  On a very s m a l l s c a l e , s i t e a t t r i b u t e s  be much a f f e c t e d by t r a f f i c p a t t e r n s r e l a t e d to new  can  invest-  26 ment.  Investment t o s u b s t a n t i a l l y improve e x i s t i n g  w i l l p r o b a b l y cause a response costs.  in traffic  flows and  facilities  freight  In each case, t h e r e w i l l probably be changes i n  h i e r a r c h i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between urban c e n t r e s over the l o n g term, as the r e v i s e d t r a n s p o r t system h e l p s t o rearrange a t t r i b u t e s of r e l a t i v e  location. ^ 2  Improved road c o n d i t i o n s and network s t r u c t u r e w i l l mean d i f f e r e n t t h i n g s to d i f f e r e n t users - the p r a c t i c a l c a t i o n s o f changed a c c e s s i b i l i t y are h i g h l y v a r i a b l e .  impli-  Walters  ( 1 9 6 1 ) e x p l a i n s some o f the r e a c t i o n s i n an urban s i t u a t i o n , with i m p l i c a t i o n s about the measures a p p r o p r i a t e f o r a s s e s s i n g the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of road investment. t h a t manufacturing  showed  a c t i v i t y can be r e l a t e d t o freeway develop-  ment under c e r t a i n c i r c u m s t a n c e s . response  Wheat ( I 9 6 9 )  Gauthier  ( 1 9 6 8 ) sought  t o network change i n the v a l u e o f r e t a i l  a  sales.  G a r r i s o n ( 1 9 6 5 , p. 7 1 - 8 7 ) showed t h a t i n t e g r a t i o n between nodes, and the complexity o f network flows, i n c r e a s e f a s t e r 28  than g e n e r a l economic or g e n e r a l network development.  Kansky  ( 1 9 6 3 , p. 4 1 - 5 2 ) demonstrated t h a t d i f f e r e n t i n d i c e s of economic a c t i v i t y are a s s o c i a t e d b e s t w i t h d i f f e r e n t measures of t r a n s port i n f r a s t r u c t u r e .  0 ' S u l l i v a n (1969) r e l a t e d  different  28 l e v e l s o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y to v a r i o u s economic i n d i c a t o r s and found w i d e l y d i f f e r e n t s t r e n g t h s  i n the a s s o c i a t i o n s .  Kanaan  ( 1 9 6 5 ) found e i g h t v a r i a b l e s which needed to be taken i n a s s e s s i n g the e f f e c t o f network change i n S y r i a . s t u d i e s emphasize t h a t responses to l e v e l s and  A l l these  categories  t r a n s p o r t investment are h i g h l y v a r i a b l e so t h a t the o f response, no matter how  together  of  indices  j u d i c i o u s l y chosen, can o n l y  be  partial.  2.6  SYNTHESIS OF THEMES AND  INTERESTS IN THE  T h i s study draws on the e x t e n s i v e p o r t investment i n economic development. a n a l y s i s as a way  LITERATURE  treatment o f t r a n s -  I t uses network  o f l o o k i n g a t change i n the highway system,  but u n l i k e other network s t u d i e s i n geography, attempts to h i g h l i g h t the importance o f investment p o l i c i e s and as a f a c t o r i n the extent,  q u a l i t y and  decisions  s t r u c t u r e o f the  B.C.  road network. Investment has accessibility.  d r a m a t i c a l l y changed p a t t e r n s  A c c e s s i b i l i t y , a concept having w i d e l y d i f f e r e n t  meanings and p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s , w i l l be d e s c r i b e d o f one  of  c l a s s o f r o a d user.  the work o f K i s s l i n g  This description r e l i e s heavily  ( 1 9 6 9 ) and  on the e m p i r i c a l data o f  v a r i o u s Highway Research Board i n v e s t i g a t i o n s .  changes work t h e i r way  i n an  through user  behaviour, to have some measurable economic impact.  on  the  Indications  response t o changed a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i l l be d i s c u s s e d attempt to d i s c o v e r how  i n terms  of  29  REFERENCES: 1  See the reviews o f B. B e r r y ( 1 9 5 9 ) ;  J . Wheeler  (1971).  2 F o r an account o f the range and v a r i e t y o f network a n a l y s i s , see P. Haggett and R. Chorley, ( 1 9 6 9 ) . 3 Hawkins ( i 9 6 0 ) , Fromm ( 1 9 6 5 ) , W i l s o n e t a l . , ( 1 9 6 6 ) , document many case s t u d i e s o f t r a n s p o r t development p r o j e c t s . Roberts (1966) and G a u t h i e r (1970) o f f e r some c a u t i o n a r y a d v i c e on the r o l e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n development; and B i r d s a l l (1971) o f f e r s some a l t e r n a t i v e c r i t e r i a f o r e v a l u a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t p r o j e c t s . Rimmer (1971) d e s c r i b e s a s i t u a t i o n o f road investment unbalancing the t o t a l t r a n s p o r t system. 4  "The crux o f a highway p r o j e c t i s not i t s p u t a t i v e revenue, but i t s c a t a l y t i c e f f e c t on economic development." Rimmer (197D,  5  15.  T a a f f e , M o r r i l l , and Gould  Garrison  6  P.  (1965),  pp.  (1963);  100-107.  R. Lachene ( 1 9 6 5 ) ;  P. Haggett  Kansky ( I 9 6 3 ) , Ch. 8;  ( 1 9 6 5 ) , p. 82;  R.  Merrill  (1965).  7 See the summary o f such attempts i n C, Werner ( 1 9 6 8 ) ; a l s o , M. Beckman ( 1 9 6 7 ) ; Quandt ( i 9 6 0 ) and G a r r i s o n and Marble ( 1 9 5 8 ) , H a i k a l i s and Joseph ( 1 9 6 1 ) . 8  M e i n i g (1962);  Wolpert  (1964;  1970).  9 See a l s o Winfrey and Z e l l n e r * s d e s c r i p t i o n o f road development, f n . 3» Chapter 1. 10 Canadian Good Roads A s s o c i a t i o n ( I 9 6 3 ) and (1970); American A s s o c i a t i o n o f S t a t e Highway O f f i c i a l s (I960); C a p e l l e et a l . (1968); Quandt ( i 9 6 0 ) ; H a i k a l i s and Joseph (1961); Woods e t a l . ( i 9 6 0 ) ; Oglesby and A l t e n h o f f e n ( I 9 6 9 ) . 11 Beckman ( 1 9 6 7 ) ; Ford and F u l k e r s o n ( 1 9 6 2 ) ; Gerlough and C a p e l l e ( 1 9 6 4 ) ; Plummer e t a l . ( I 9 6 I ) ; Walters (1968); and George e t a l . ( I 9 6 I ) . 12 F o r example, S a w h i l l and F i r e y S a a l ( 1 9 5 0 ) ; Wagner and May ( i 9 6 0 ) ;  (1962); Stevens ( I 9 6 I ) ; Adkins e t a l . ( 1 9 6 7 ) ;  Claffey  and  (i960);  Winfrey  (I963,  1969  1971).  13 See g e n e r a l comments i n AASHO ( i 9 6 0 ) ; NCHRP Report No. 122 ( 1 9 7 D .  De W e i l l e  (1966);  14 NCHRP Reports 58, 7 0 , 8 3 , 8 9 ; Wagner and May ( i 9 6 0 ) ; Gwynn (1968); Plummer e t a l . ( 1 9 6 1 ) ; Wolfe ( I 9 6 9 ) .  30  15 J . Burch ( 1 9 6 l ) i M. W i l l s ( 1 9 7 1 ) .  B. H a r r i s ( 1 9 6 4 ) :  16 W. G a r r i s o n and D. Marble Dacey ( 1 9 6 1 ) ; R. Smith ( 1 9 6 3 ) ; (1967);  J. Britton  D. S t a r k i e  (I969);  (1965); J . Nystuen and M. A. S c o t t ( 1 9 6 7 ) ; L. Cummings  (1971).  17 Drawing on the work o f A. Shimbel ( 1 9 5 3 ) ; I». Katz (1953)? W. G a r r i s o n ( i 9 6 0 ) ; I . Burton ( 1 9 6 2 ) ; K. Kansky (1963)? C. Kissling (I969). 18 F o l l o w i n g the techniques used by G a u t h i e r (1968); K i s s l i n g (1966 and 1 9 6 9 ) 1 G r i f f i t h s (1968). 19 T h i s o b s e r v a t i o n drawn from l a r g e - s c a l e (census d i v i s i o n ) data, i n K. Denike and R. L e i g h , R e g i o n a l Economic Development i n B.C., unpub. mimeo, Department o f Geography, UBC,(197l), p. 16; a l s o , i n W i l l s , ( 1 9 7 D . p. 84. 20  DeWeille ( 1 9 6 6 ) , p. 14, pp. 4 9 - 5 1 I  ( 1 9 6 1 ) , p. 9» (196) p. 1 0 9 .  AASHO ( i 9 6 0 ) pp.  83-92,  HRB  93-5?  Bull..No. 306, UK  Road Research  21 Compared w i t h , say, J . Burch ( I 9 6 I ) who found an exponent o f 2 s u i t a b l e f o r s i m u l a t i n g i n t e r a c t i o n a l o n g freeways; o r S t a r k i e ( 1 9 6 9 ) , who found a " b e s t " exponent o f 1 . 7 5 » o r H e l v i g (1964) who used 1.5 f o r c a l i b r a t i n g a model o f t r u c k movements from Chicago. See a l s o the comments o f B, H a r r i s ( 1 9 6 4 ) . 22 Hawkins ( i 9 6 0 ) ; NCHRP Report No. 122, p. 6 1 - 8 . Gauthier's t r u c k c o s t e s t i m a t e s support the 30, per cent f i g u r e ( G a u t h i e r 1968, p. 82) i n B r a z i l . However, Heflebower*s e s t i m a t e s f o r t r u c k s i n Venezuela suggests a r e s t r i c t i o n o f about 100 p e r cent ( i n G. Fromm, 1965» p. 5 4 ) . In B.C., average d a i l y summer t r a f f i c between Kamloops and P r i n c e t o n i n c r e a s e d by about 90 per cent over 3 y e a r s , ( 1 9 5 6 - 5 9 ) . as the s u r f a c e was upgraded and paved. 23 K. Denike ( 1 9 7 1 ) . PP. 2 0 - 1 ; W. G a r r i s o n (1965) and K. Kansky (1963) t e s t e d a number o f i n d i c e s t o f i n d those which b e s t matched network measures a t d i f f e r e n t stages o f development. 24  W.  Garrison et a l . (1959),  25  U.S.  pp.  11-12.  Dept. o f Commerce ( 1 9 6 4 ) , p.  26 Garrison et a l . (1959); Graybeal and G i f f o r d ( I 9 6 8 ) .  U.S.  27  R. Lachene (1964), p. 1 9 3 - 5 .  28  A l s o suggested by W i l l s  15.  Bureau o f Commerce ( 1 9 6 4 ) ;  ( 1 9 7 1 ) , p.  26.  31  CHAPTER 3  TOTAL SPENDING ON HIGHWAYS IN B.C.  3.1  INTRODUCTION - AIMS AND  1 9 ^ 6 - 7 1 »BY DISTRICT f  SOURCES  T h i s chapter surveys spending on highways as i t was d i s t r i b u t e d amongst d i s t r i c t s o f the p r o v i n c e and over time. I t a l s o o f f e r s some " i d e a l p a t t e r n s " which might have o c c u r r e d under c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s . tary.  The two p e r s p e c t i v e s are complemen-  The d i c t a t e s o f sequence  and interdependence a p p l y t o  d i s t r i b u t i o n s both over time and over a r e a . c a l environment  J u s t as the p h y s i -  causes d i s p a r i t i e s i n c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s from  area t o a r e a , so the economic environment,  through  inflation  and v a r i a b l e f a c t o r composition, causes d i s p a r i t i e s i n the r e a l v a l u e o f a l l o c a t i o n s from time t o time.  The f i g u r e s are  surveyed w i t h i n e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s , and p a t t e r n s a r e sought which might suggest p o l i c i e s i n e f f e c t from time t o time. D e s c r i p t i o n and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f p a t t e r n s o f spending i n B.C. r e q u i r e f i r s t o f a l l a r e d u c t i o n i n the complexity o f the data as p u b l i s h e d i n the Annual Reports o f the M i n i s t e r o f P u b l i c Works (19^6-55)  and o f Highways ( s i n c e 1 9 5 5 ) .  I t might  have been p o s s i b l e t o e x t r a c t summaries o f major road developments o n l y , from the annual " F i n a n c i a l and Economic Review" but t h i s i s a t f a u l t , p r a c t i c a l l y , f o r i g n o r i n g about h a l f o f  32 the t o t a l budget?  and a t f a u l t , c o n c e p t u a l l y , f o r i g n o r i n g  the f a c t o f interdependence o f a l l items o f spending, c u l a r l y interdependence between "normal"  parti-  spending and "expan-  s i o n a r y " o r improvement" spending. 1  The o p e r a t i o n and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f the Highways  Department i s o r g a n i z e d i n t o f o u r r e g i o n s and 3^ l o c a l  districts.  The f i n a n c i a l a c c o u n t i n g f o r the Annual Reports i s arranged a c c o r d i n g t o e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s , which a r e e s s e n t i a l l y groupings o f p o p u l a t i o n h a v i n g some homogeneity o f i n t e r e s t and a c t i v i t i e s . a few c a s e s .  The two types o f d i v i s i o n c o i n c i d e i n o n l y  There i s no c o n s i s t e n t o r n e c e s s a r y c o n n e c t i o n  between the p o p u l a t i o n grouping and the t r a f f i c g e n e r a t i o n w i t h i n , o r the flow a c r o s s , the d i s t r i c t .  S i n c e some e l e c t o r a l  d i s t r i c t s c u t a c r o s s t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g sub-systems o r embrace more than one sub-system,  an a c c o u n t i n g r e l a t e d t o sub-systems  of the t r a n s p o r t network would have been more u s e f u l f o r t y i n g t o g e t h e r investment, t r a f f i c flow and economic response.  The  present a c c o u n t i n g o f the Department seems designed t o d e f l e c t suggestions o f unequal p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e i n some e l e c t o r a t e s . The number and shape o f e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s have changed over the p e r i o d took p l a c e i n 1966.  (see Appendix I ) .  Most o f the changes  Thus, the a c c o u n t i n g f o r some s t r e t c h e s  of road i s t o be found i n d i f f e r e n t d i s t r i c t s over the p e r i o d . Where p o s s i b l e , the a c c o u n t i n g was t r a c e d back so t h a t the a g g r e g a t i o n used i n t h i s t h e s i s i s f o r the d i s t r i c t s as i f they had been e x a c t l y as i n 1971 over the whole p e r i o d . most d r a s t i c re-arrangements,  i n terms o f importance  The  o f roads  33 and amounts o f investment, were between West Vancouver, L i l l o o e t and Y a l e - L i l l o o e t ?  between Similkameen and Y a l e - L i l l o o e t }  and  between North Okanagan and Shuswap. To s i m p l i f y d e s c r i p t i o n s , a l l the Vancouver d i s t r i c t s , the Burnaby d i s t r i c t s and New D e l t a was  "re-formed"  were grouped  as  one;  to i n c l u d e the p r e s e n t r i d i n g s o f D e l t a ,  Langley, Surrey and Richmond. Dewdney.  Westminster,  Coquitlam was  gathered back i n t o  The North Vancouver r i d i n g s and West Vancouver - Howe  Sound were j o i n e d t o g e t h e r . "Headquarters"  account.  Oak Bay was  i n c l u d e d with the  Thus, the data are summarized and p r e -  sented i n the form o f "Headquarters"  p l u s 31  other d i s t r i c t s .  The f i n a n c i a l accounts d e t a i l the items o f spending and t h e i r l o c a t i o n on a p a r t i c u l a r r o a d .  U n t i l 1956-57, mainte-  nance and snow-clearing amounts were a l s o d e s c r i b e d by  location.  S i n c e then, they have been g i v e n i n lump sums f o r each  electoral  district. grouped  To seek out p a t t e r n s i n the accounts, items were  i n t o f i v e c a t e g o r i e s and two  made up o f t  constructionj  classes.  C a t e g o r i e s were  s u r f a c i n g and improvement}  nance and minor improvements}  snow-clearing}  and  r i g h t s - o f - w a y , b e a u t i f i c a t i o n and l e g a l s u r v e y s .  mainte-  surveys, C l a s s e s were  e i t h e r trunk (main roads, a r t e r i a l s , i n t e r - u r b a n ) or branch ( f e e d e r s , l o c a l or farm r o a d s ) , a c t u a l d e s c r i p t i o n s o f which are s e t out i n Appendix I I . Except f o r the maintenance and snow-clearing items, the accounts can not be f a u l t e d f o r d e t a i l .  The most severe  l i m i t a t i o n , however, i s i n the shape and s i z e o f e l e c t o r a l districts.  Generally, there i s l i t t l e  correspondence  apparent  34 between the nature o f the road system and the nature o f the a r e a d e l i m i t e d by e l e c t o r a l d i v i s i o n s .  This i s largely  t a b l e , s i n c e roads w i t h i n areas are a l s o s e r v i n g o t h e r  ineviroads  and a c t i v i t i e s b e l o n g i n g to o t h e r a r e a s . The  d i s p a r i t i e s i n s i z e , shape, road mileage  and  c h a r a c t e r o f the r e p o r t i n g u n i t s have r e q u i r e d a v e r y r e s t r a i n e d s t a t i s t i c a l treatment  of the d a t a .  1  Because the u n i t s were not  l o g i c a l l y r e l a t e d t o the q u a n t i t i e s they e n c l o s e , t h e r e i s no l o g i c a l measure f o r making the q u a n t i t i e s immediately able.  The  compar-  sequence o f maps, f o l l o w i n g i n t h i s chapter, i s an  attempt t o f i n d a r a t i o n a l e f o r the v a r i a t i o n i n spending,  and  though the attempt does r e s u l t i n a b e t t e r understanding, i t does not p r o v i d e a c o n s i s t e n t e x p l a n a t i o n . The p o s s i b l e f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g a d i s t r i c t ' s o f the t o t a l are d i s c e r n i b l e a t an i n t u i t i v e l e v e l .  share  However,  too g r e a t a v a r i a b i l i t y remains w i t h i n the f a c t o r s themselves to draw them t o g e t h e r i n t o a g e n e r a l mathematical e x p r e s s i o n such as trunk mileage, m u n i c i p a l spending,  improved mileage,  t e r r a i n , climate,  p o p u l a t i o n , stage o f development, and  existence of t r a n s - p r o v i n c i a l paths.  As w e l l , t h e r e are  v e r y i n f l u e n t i a l v a r i a b l e s - i n t e n d e d development and  two  import-  ance o f e x t e r n a l c o n t a c t s - f o r which v a l u e s are l a r g e l y indeterminate. o f spending  A simple  "model" or argument about the b a s i s  i s t h e r e f o r e attempted i n the next s e c t i o n .  p r o v i d e s a r e f e r e n c e a g a i n s t which a c t u a l p a t t e r n s o f can be e v a l u a t e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n .  It  spending  35 3.2  A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF SPENDING The p r i m i t i v e stage o f road t r a n s p o r t  g e n e r a l l y c o n s i s t s o f unconnected sub-systems. phase o f r e g i o n a l l y - p l a n n e d development  infrastructure The e a r l i e s t  involves basic  inter-  connections between r e s o u r c e a r e a s and t r a n s p o r t b r e a k - p o i n t s , and between r e s o u r c e a r e a s and p o p u l a t e d c e n t r e s . phase o f development  A second  i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n t e g r a t i v e  between p o p u l a t e d c e n t r e s , and by demand-serving  links  links of  a c c e s s f o r l e i s u r e and r e c r e a t i o n purposes. I t i s suggested t h a t the two p r o c e s s e s - b a s i c  connec-  t i o n and advancing i n t e g r a t i o n - d e s c r i b e a v e r y broad tendency o f the growth o f t r a n s p o r t i n f r a s t r u c t u r e f o r a d e v e l o p i n g economy.  Lachene  ( 1 9 6 5 ) found a l o g i c a l b a s i s f o r the tendency  while T a a f f e e t a l .  (1963)  s y n t h e s i z e d a s i m i l a r model from  experience i n under-developed c o u n t r i e s . l a t e d such a development  (I963)  Kansky  simu-  from mathematical r e l a t i o n s h i p s between  economic i n d i c e s and network s t r u c t u r e .  The tendency w i l l be  obscured from time t o time by the n e c e s s a r y responses t o newlygenerated t r a f f i c  ( i n the form o f enlargement o f e x i s t i n g  c o n n e c t i o n s ) , and t o u s e r - c o s t o r o p e r a t o r - c o s t between p a r t s o f the whole system.  differences  S i n c e the a u t h o r i t i e s operate  under a budget c o n s t r a i n t , the f a c i l i t i e s p r o v i d e d can o n l y s a t i s f y a c e r t a i n l e v e l o f demand over a l i m i t e d p e r i o d .  In  t h a t i n t e r v a l , investment can be d i r e c t e d t o o t h e r p a r t s o f the t r a n s p o r t system, o r t o o t h e r s o c i a l needs, u n t i l  increasing  c o s t s and c o n g e s t i o n demonstrate the need f o r adjustment o f the original f a c i l i t i e s .  The l e n g t h o f t h a t i n t e r v a l w i l l  depend  36 on the q u a l i t y o f the o r i g i n a l f a c i l i t i e s , and on the r a t e of generation of t r a f f i c .  The  q u a l i t y o f f a c i l i t i e s can  itself  be a f a c t o r i n the r a t e of t r a f f i c g e n e r a t i o n - a l o n g  with  'other f a c t o r s such as economic growth, supply o f a l t e r n a t i v e modes o f t r a n s p o r t , the l e v e l o f p e r s o n a l incomes, and l e v e l o f c a r ownership and I n 1945,  and from Revelstoke  usage.  b a s i c connections  l a t e d c e n t r e s o f B.C.  the  e x i s t e d between the popu-  (except i n t o the Peace R i v e r  t o the e a s t ) .  district,  Compared w i t h the  present  system, the l i n k s , as i n d i c a t e d by the p u b l i s h e d t o u r i s t maps, were g e n e r a l l y of low r e l i a b i l i t y , cost.  low q u a l i t y , and h i g h  user  Investment i n the f i r s t h a l f o f the p e r i o d 1946-71  n e c e s s a r i l y concentrated  on them.  I n l a t e r y e a r s , the  choices  on where to i n v e s t and on what to p r o v i d e , have been more numerous.  Reading the Annual Reports and  d i s c u s s i o n s with  employees o f the Department of Highways, c o n f i r m t h a t  strict  economic surveys o f the c o s t - b e n e f i t or b e f o r e - a n d - a f t e r have been r a r e l y used. mainly  type  D e c i s i o n s seem to have been based  on some g e n e r a l scheme o f economic development, on  undifferentiated t r a f f i c the composition  counts, and  o f t r a f f i c and  on informed  the l i k e l y  guesses about  f u t u r e demand f o r  facilities. An investment traffic  p o l i c y guided o n l y by u n d i f f e r e n t i a t e d  counts over a l o n g p e r i o d , would respond to user demand,  and would not make f u l l use o f the i n f l u e n c e a v a i l a b l e t o the t r a n s p o r t component i n a c h i e v i n g s o c i a l and economic o b j e c t i v e s . Such a p o l i c y would r e s u l t i n a p a r t i c u l a r p a t t e r n of highway  37  investment  - concentrated around populated a r e a s ,  extending  a l o n g a narrow band between populated and/or p r o d u c i n g a r e a s , and extending t o the p o i n t s o f export and e x t e r n a l c o n t a c t . F o r t r a f f i c flows t o be t r u l y r e f l e c t e d i n the p a t t e r n o f road investment  over a p e r i o d , the f o l l o w i n g i d e a l c o n d i t i o n s  would be r e q u i r e d : a)  A l l d i s t r i c t s s t a r t i n g from the same stock o f t r a n s port f a c i l i t i e s , including v e h i c l e s . A c o n s i s t e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p between road t r a n s p o r t and o t h e r means o f t r a n s p o r t and communication. A n e u t r a l p o l i c y towards economic and r e g i o n a l development. E q u a l impediment t o r o a d c o n s t r u c t i o n , i n a l l directions. An assumption o f no l o c a t i o n a l s h i f t s o f economic a c t i v i t i e s t o areas not connected t o the e x i s t i n g network. A constant r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a f f i c volume and the c o s t o f f a c i l i t i e s needed t o match t h a t volume.  g)  Road requirements o f the p r o v i n c e b e i n g u n i n f l u e n c e d by the paths o f e x t e r n a l c o n n e c t i o n .  h)  A constant r e l a t i o n s h i p between the c o s t o f f a c i l i t i e s and t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o network q u a l i t y . The e x e r c i s e o f s e t t i n g up a l o g i c a l model such as  t h i s t o i s o l a t e one r e l a t i o n s h i p i s n o t rendered p o i n t l e s s by the f i r s t breeze o f r e a l i t y which w i l l , o b v i o u s l y , deny the assumptions.  The model shows the l i k e l y d i f f i c u l t i e s and l i k e l y  f a c t o r s i n i n f e r r i n g an i n t e n t i o n o r a p o l i c y from an observed pattern.  I t a l s o suggests the p o s s i b l e degree o f v a r i a b i l i t y  i n a l l o c a t i o n s t o i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s o r s t r e t c h e s o f road.  38 3.3  A FORMULA FOR  AMOUNTS OF SPENDING?  Before p l u n g i n g v i d e d by the p u b l i s h e d  i n t o the wealth of i n f o r m a t i o n  pro-  f i n a n c i a l accounts, i t i s worth c o n s i -  d e r i n g what r e a l l y major f o r c e s l i e behind a d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r o a d investment. w i t h i n and  The  f i r s t i s population  between most s e t t l e d a r e a s .  which o f t e n r e q u i r e road connection f u l l exploitation. and  i n the  - roads are needed  The  second i s  f o r t h e i r development  Roads are r e q u i r e d t o p o r t s and  case o f B.C.,  dominant m e t r o p o l i s .  from the resource  and  markets,  h i n t e r l a n d to  T h i r d l y , connections t o o t h e r  make demands on the investment  resources,  the  provinces  pattern.  T a k i n g the a c t u a l amount spent i n the e l e c t o r a l districts, according and  an attempt was  made to d i s t r i b u t e i t ( $ 1 3 4 ? m i l l i o n )  to the f a c t o r s o f p o p u l a t i o n ,  d i s t a n c e from Vancouver.  simply  s c a l e d from 30  Atlin,  North Peace R i v e r and  was  external  connection,  For t h i s exercise, distance  (the Vancouver grouping) to 1  r a t e d from F i g u r e 2 ,  MacKenzie);  Chapter 3 ,  (such  was as  a particular district  hy the number of  districts  more remote from Vancouver which passed t h e i r t r a f f i c on to i t . T h i s i s a r e c o g n i t i o n of the e f f e c t o f through paths on and  road requirements f o r any  "intervening" d i s t r i c t .  suggested r e l a t i o n s h i p o f the t h r e e p o s t u l a t e d Px  Ix E P D n  -  Dx  +  traffic The  f a c t o r s is»  Ex  expected spending i n d i s t r i c t x known a c t u a l c o s t o f e x t e r n a l connections population "distance" scale number o f e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s  39 Because o f the importance  o f the p o p u l a t i o n f a c t o r ,  and because o f the p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n i n the p r o v i n c e , the d i s t r i b u t i o n of investment  from the above formula gave a  tremendous e x a g g e r a t i o n f o r the d i s t r i c t s i n the Lower Mainl a n d and southern Vancouver I s l a n d ,  Vancouver actually-  r e c e i v e d $42 m i l l i o n over the p e r i o d i ment" was was  $500 m i l l i o n .  the "generated  invest-  F o r southern Vancouver I s l a n d , a c t u a l  $78 m i l l i o n , generated was  $151  million.  i n populated areas are extreme, but two  The  disparities  other f a c t o r s operating  t o g e t h e r would have done something towards r e c o n c i l i n g the a c t u a l and generated p a t t e r n s - one, a l l d i s t r i c t s s t a r t e d i n 1946 t i e s , but r e a l l y ,  the formula assumed t h a t  from an e q u a l supply o f  facili-  the populated d i s t r i c t s were a l r e a d y w e l l  s u p p l i e d b e f o r e then?  and two,  the a c t u a l a l l o c a t i o n s of  p u b l i c money t o the populated d i s t r i c t s would have been much g r e a t e r i f the amounts o f road g r a n t s through  municipalities  had been known and i n c l u d e d . The model gave a b e t t e r s i m u l a t i o n o f the t i o n of investment  distribu-  ($867 m i l l i o n ) a f t e r e x c l u d i n g the p o p u l a t e d  areas of southern Vancouver I s l a n d and the Lower Mainland.  The  d i s t r i c t s o f pronounced o v e r e s t i m a t i o n - Okanagan, Kamloops, R o s s l a n d - T r a i l , Kootenay - were againthose with c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of p o p u l a t i o n .  P r i n c e Rupert and MacKenzie were overestimated,  probably because o f water t r a n s p o r t s e r v i n g t h e i r t r a n s p o r t needs as much as road c o n n e c t i o n s .  Yale,  fievelstoke,  Atlin  and Omineca d i s t r i c t s were a l l n o t i c e a b l y underestimated. the f i r s t  two,  For  the c o s t s i n the F r a s e r Canyon and Rogers Pass  40 boosted t h e i r a c t u a l a l l o c a t i o n s ;  A t l i n d i s t r i c t has r e c e i v e d  much a t t e n t i o n f o r mining roads, and Omineca seems t o have been"favoured"  f o r having the Northern T r a n s p r o v i n e i a l and  the S t u a r t Lake road p a s s i n g through i t . F o r the f i r s t d i s t r i b u t i o n ( $ 1 3 4 7 m i l l i o n ) the mean A c t u a o f  A;tSai  r e t i C a l  distribution ($867),  *  w a s  a  b  o  u  t  7 0 f o t  i t was about 3 5 $ .  F o r  t h e  s  e  c  o  n  d  O b v i o u s l y the  hypothe-  t i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n based on p o p u l a t i o n , " d i s t a n c e " from Vancouver,  and e x t e r n a l c o n n e c t i o n , i s o n l y a weak i n d i c a t i o n  o f the a c t u a l investment p a t t e r n .  The b a s i c flaw i s the  unequal amounts o f f a c i l i t i e s i n the d i s t r i c t s b e f o r e The v a l u e o f the e x e r c i s e was  1946.  t o p o i n t out the areas o f marked  d e v i a t i o n s , i n support o f the suspected reasons f o r unequal amounts o f spending, which were mainly the d i f f i c u l t y o f c o n s t r u c t i o n i n some a r e a s ;  the complex r e l a t i o n s h i p between  s i z e o f p o p u l a t i o n and r o a d requirements; p o l i c i e s o f expansion;  the importance  the d e l i b e r a t e  o f through t r a f f i c ;  and  the e x i s t e n c e o f s p e c i a l p r o j e c t s , n o t a b l y h y d r o - e l e c t r i c development. G e n e r a l l y , "response to t r a f f i c f l o w s " , as measured by p o p u l a t i o n and i t s p o s i t i o n i n through paths, does not seem to be a s u i t a b l e standard by which to d e s c r i b e the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f road investment i n B.C.  3.4  ACTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENT F i g u r e 2 p r o v i d e s a summary of t o t a l spending over  the p e r i o d .  S u p e r f i c i a l comparisons  are to be discouraged,  42 because o f the v a r y i n g s i z e and districts.  content  of the  electoral  The meaning o f the p a t t e r n o f investment i s ob-  scured by t h i s f a c t and by the v a r y i n g mileage w i t h i n the F i g u r e 3 shows the p a t t e r n o f spending,  districts.  w i t h i n the same i r r e g u l a r d i s t r i c t s ,  still  but s t a n d a r d i z e d  d i n g to the mileage "open" i n March, 1962,  accor-  I t provides  a  very d i f f e r e n t perspective. The reflect (d,  enormous c o s t s per m i l e i n the Lower Mainland  the impediment o f r e c l a i m i n g l a n d from other uses  i n p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n ) , the e s c a l a t i n g f a c i l i t y c o s t s i n  r e l a t i o n to increasing t r a f f i c e x t e r n a l connection,  ( f , above), the e f f e c t  of  and the impediment o f n a t u r a l o b s t a c l e s  ( F r a s e r R i v e r , and t e r r a i n from B u r r a r d I n l e t to Squamish). Obtaining rights-of-way  i n the North Vancouver, Vancouver,  Burnaby and D e l t a d i s t r i c t s , t o t a l spending. Columbia and reasonable  has averaged about 10-15$ o f the  In the s p a r s e l y s e t t l e d d i s t r i c t s  Omineca, i t was  l e s s than Ifo.  like  Also, i t i s  to assume t h a t h i g h e r q u a l i t y and h i g h e r  f a c i l i t i e s are p r o v i d e d i n areas having a r e l a t i v e l y and  high  c o n s i s t e n t t r a f f i c flow, as opposed t o the many I n t e r i o r  areas where h i g h l e v e l s o f flow are experienced few  capacity  occasions  o n l y on a  i n the summer.  Where d i f f i c u l t n a t u r a l b a r r i e r s had to be  bridged  or breached, c o s t s per m i l e f o r the d i s t r i c t were e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y high.  The a l l o c a t i o n to R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n  the expense o f r e p l a c i n g the B i g Bend Highway; d i s t r i c t , i t was  the John Hart Highway and  d i s t r i c t showed i n F o r t George  the Yellowhead  44 Highway:  i n P r i n c e Rupert, c o n s t r u c t i o n d i f f i c u l t i e s  the lower Skeena R i v e r t o the c i t y The  from  itself.  a l l o c a t i o n s to the non-urban d i s t r i c t s are some-  what depressed i n F i g u r e 3 by the i n c l u s i o n i n the d i v i s o r of all  "open" roads - e a r t h , g r a v e l and  " e a r t h " roads,  tarmac.  By e x c l u d i n g  and a d j u s t i n g the d i v i s o r t o i n c l u d e a l l  "improved" roads ( i . e . , g r a v e l l e d , and d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n emerges i n F i g u r e 4. i g n o r i n g the e a r t h roads,  surfaced roads), One  is justified in  Thus removing the  r a n c h i n g roads o f Y a l e - L i l l o o e t and Cariboo  districts,  a l l y doubles t h e i r c o s t per m i l e a l l o c a t i o n . there are n o t a b l e  a  s i n c e such a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l c o s t  per m i l e c o u l d be a t t r i b u t e d to them.  virtu-  Similarly,  changes i n the d i s t r i c t s o f Peace R i v e r ,  Boundary-Similkameen, and The  the  Kootenay.  a l l o c a t i o n s a c c o r d i n g to F i g u r e 4 are not  s a t i s f a c t o r y as i n d i c a t o r s o f u n d e r l y i n g p o l i c y . ences between neighbouring  The  entirely  differ-  Kootenay and Nelson-Creston,  or  Omineca and Skeena, or North Okanagan and South Okanagan, are not to be e x p l a i n e d by w i d e l y d i f f e r i n g t e r r a i n or the number o f urban s e t t l e m e n t s .  Since over the whole p e r i o d , c o s t s per  m i l e on the trunk i n t e r - u r b a n roads have averaged r o u g h l y times those  on the improved or l o c a l roads,  v a r i a b l e behind  an  important  the p a t t e r n s o f F i g u r e s 2, 3 and 4,  i s the  p r o p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l mileage b e i n g c o n s t r u c t e d and t a i n e d as p a r t o f the trunk  five  main-  system.  Table I helps to e x p l a i n some o f the anomalies e x i s t i n g i n F i g u r e s 2, 3 and 4 - such as R o s s l a n d - T r a i l , Nelson-  46  TABLE I INFLUENCE ON COST-PER-MILE OF THE TRUNK MILEAGE Trunk as % o f Improved Mileage  District  over 50%  Shuswap, Columbia,  40 -  Rossland-Trail,  50  F o r t George  Nelson-Creston  3© - 4 0  Kootenay, South Peace, Skeena, Dewdney, C h i l l i w a c k  20 -  30  Alberni, Yale-Lillooet, Boundary-Similkameen, Kamloops, Omineca, P r i n c e Rupert  10 -  20  Comox, Cariboo  l e s s than 10  North Okanagan, South Okanagan, R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n , A t l i n , MacKenzie.  Table I h e l p s t o e x p l a i n some o f the e x i s t i n g i n Figures 2, Creston, Columbia,  anomalies  3 and 4 - such as R o s s l a n d - T r a i l ,  and F o r t George.  A c c o r d i n g to Table I,  Shuswap "ought" t o have been much h i g h e r . d i s t r i c t , trunk roads remained  Nelson-  However, i n t h a t  c l o s e t o the v a l l e y s , so t h a t  c o n s t r u c t i o n has been r e l a t i v e l y l e s s expensive.  Possible  reasons f o r the d i f f e r e n c e s between Comox and A l b e r n i , between Omineca and Skeena, between Cariboo and Kamloops, between Kootenay and Columbia,  are suggested by Table I .  The anomaly o f R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n , and the d i f f e r e n c e between North Okanagan and South Okanagan, r e q u i r e f u r t h e r consideration.  The extremely h i g h c o s t per m i l e i n R e v e l s t o k e -  S l o c a n i s due to the l a r g e amount o f investment to the h y d r o - e l e c t r i c development schemes on the R i v e r ^ - over $30 m i l l i o n s i n c e 1 9 6 6 .  i n access roads Columbia  I n the Okanagan, one  47 o f the more c o s t l y items a t t r i b u t a b l e t o the South was the c r o s s i n g o f the Lake, e a r l i e r by f e r r i e s , l a t e r by b r i d g e . A l s o , tarmac s u r f a c i n g has been extended t i o n o f the mileage  3.5  t o a g r e a t e r propor-  i n the South than i n the North.  POSSIBLE VALIDITY OF THE POSTULATED PATTERN The p a t t e r n o f spending suggested  earlier i n this  chapter emerges, though v e r y g e n e r a l l y , from F i g u r e 4 when viewed i n c o n j u n c t i o n with Table I .  The southern q u a r t e r o f  Vancouver I s l a n d , and the Okanagan V a l l e y , had b e n e f i t e d from road development b e f o r e 1946 - hence t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y low a l l o c a t i o n s i n 1946-71.  E x t e r n a l c o n n e c t i o n accounts f o r a  l a r g e p a r t o f the investment F o r t George and D e l t a .  i n Columbia,  Revelstoke-Slocan,  Apart from these s p e c i a l cases, t h e r e  remains a c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f spending around the populated areas - Saanich, North Vancouver, Vancouver and Burnaby, D e l t a , C h i l l i w a c k , Dewdney, and R o s s l a n d - T r a i l .  Also, there i s a  c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f spending a l o n g the r o u t e s between populated areas, i n d i c a t e d by the g r e a t e r a l l o c a t i o n s i n d i s t r i c t s having a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f trunk  mileage.  That the highway investment f o r purposes  a l l o c a t i o n has been used  o f l e a d i n g o r f a c i l i t a t i n g economic a c t i v i t y i n  c e r t a i n a r e a s , i s suggested by the r e l a t i v e l y h i g h c o s t s p e r m i l e i n A l b e r n i , Comox, A t l i n and Peace R i v e r , when weighed a g a i n s t a g e n e r a l understanding o f the type and degree o f development i n those a r e a s . From the diagrams, the p r o c e s s e s behind the p a t t e r n  48 o f investment over the whole p e r i o d ,  can be g e n e r a l l y  described  as:  3.6  a)  f i l l i n g i n o r upgrading the b a s i c connections t o p o p u l a t i o n and r e s o u r c e c e n t r e s ,  b)  a d j u s t i n g the roads i n a r e a s o f h i g h p o p u l a t i o n and t r a f f i c congestion,  e)  p r o v i d i n g good q u a l i t y l i n k s as p a r t o f e x t e r n a l connections, sometimes c o i n c i d e n t w i t h a ) ,  d)  a s s i s t i n g a c t i v i t y i n remote a r e a s ("remote" i n r e l a t i o n t o the main p o r t i o n o f the network).  BREAKDOWN OF THE WHOLE PERIOD - CONSTRUCTION PRICE CHANGES Since the 1 9 4 6 - 7 1 p e r i o d i s l o n g enough t o i n c l u d e  different  stages o f road development, and d i f f e r e n t p r i o r i t i e s  amongst the p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s , and s i n c e the unequal d i s t r i c t s are f i t t e d over a r e a s o f d i f f e r e n t  c h a r a c t e r and d i f f e r e n t  economic a c t i v i t y , then a more p r e c i s e d e s c r i p t i o n can be achieved should  o n l y by breaking  the p e r i o d i n t o s h o r t e r spans.  show road development as a dynamic process,  This  able t o  serve d i f f e r e n t o b j e c t i v e s i n d i f f e r e n t areas and a t d i f f e r e n t times. The  p e c u l i a r physiography and p o p u l a t i o n  of B.C. present  distribution  s p e c i a l problems o f investment a l l o c a t i o n .  o b s t a c l e s a r e so severe,  The  the separate l i n k s so l o n g , t h a t a  programme o f improvement r e q u i r e s more o f l a r g e , a l l - a t - o n e e i n p u t s , r a t h e r than gradual  extensions  o r upgrading.  Only a  very s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f the f i n a l b e n e f i t s a r e o b t a i n a b l e a p a r t i a l l y improved l i n k .  from  The John Hart Highway, b u i l t i n t h e  49 l a t e 1940's, was  o f no b e n e f i t u n t i l a l l o f i t was  through t o Dawson Creek.  completed  The same i s almost as t r u e f o r the  Yellowhead and North Thompson e x t e n s i o n s to the A l b e r t a b o r d e r . Mountain passes and b r i d g e s can be regarded i n the same  way:  Rogers Pass, Salmo-Creston, R i e h t e r Pass, and major b r i d g e s at B r i l l i a n t , Kelowna and Hudson's Hope, a l l r e q u i r e d massive indivisible  investment over a number o f y e a r s .  The e f f e c t i s  to make peaks and troughs i n the a l l o c a t i o n s a c c o r d i n g t o district. I t matters then, a t what time a d i s t r i c t r e c e i v e d a large proportion of i t s t o t a l .  I f a p a t t e r n can be d i s c e r n e d  from the t i m i n g o f a l l o c a t i o n s , i t w i l l throw l i g h t on the motives behind r o a d investment. the  I t matters, too, because o f  changing c o s t o f c o n s t r u c t i o n . A Highway C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i c e Index (HCPI) has been  p u b l i s h e d by S t a t i s t i c s  Canada, f o r each p r o v i n c e , and f o r  Canada as a whole, going back t o 195o.  The u n i t s o f work  have been h e l d constant - such as an a c r e o f c l e a r i n g , a thousand c u b i c y a r d s o f l e v e l l i n g , on.  a t o n o f s u r f a c i n g and so  -'he changing p r i c e s a r e drawn from the tender b i d o f the  , J  c o n t r a c t o r who  was awarded the job.  A l l c o n t r a c t s awarded i n  a year are taken, then s t r a t i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o the nature o f the  work and the a r e a o f the p r o v i n c e , i n an attempt t o m i n i -  mize the b i a s e f f e c t o f d i f f i c u l t y o f c o n s t r u c t i o n work. HCPI does not r e l a t e t o maintenance,  The  minor improvements and  survey work, which are a l l done by employees o f the Department of Highways, I t i s q u i t e c l e a r from F i g u r e 5 and confirmed i n  51 c o n v e r s a t i o n w i t h o f f i c i a l s o f the Department of Highways, t h a t the HCPI i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to the amount of work a v a i l able.  In other words, c o n t r a c t o r s b i d up p r i c e s i n the busy  y e a r s , and l a t e r d e f l a t e t h e i r b i d s when c o m p e t i t i o n i s keener. 1956  The HCPI shows a g e n e r a l tendency o f d e c l i n e from  to 1 9 6 3 ,  i n t e r r u p t e d i n 1 9 5 9 - 6 0 by a sudden i n c r e a s e i n  the amount o f work a v a i l a b l e .  The g e n e r a l tendency r e f l e c t s  the i n t r o d u c t i o n of very l a r g e , l a b o u r - d i s p l a c i n g machinery, and the e n t r y o f a number o f new Since I 9 6 3 , the HCPI has tended  f i r m s i n t o the i n d u s t r y . ^ t o r i s e back to the l e v e l s o f  the e a r l i e r , l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e days. The peaks i n t o t a l spending v i n c i a l ) e l e c t i o n years.  correspond  of a government a t work.  r e l i e v e unemployment and level.  (pro-  Road improvement, p a r t i c u l a r l y  tarmac s u r f a c i n g , i s a h i g h l y v i s i b l e ? and demonstration  with  immediately  effective  Local a c t i v i t y  i n c r e a s e r e t a i l s a l e s a t the  helps local  S i n c e the Dpartment o f Highways has always operated  on  an annual budget (sometimes supplemented by S p e c i a l Warrants i s s u e d through  the Treasury Board), and hence has had a v e r y  r e s t r i c t e d h o r i z o n o f p l a n n i n g , i t s investment  o p e r a t i o n s have  been p a r t i c u l a r l y s u s c e p t i b l e to m a n i p u l a t i o n f o r short-term p o l i t i c a l impact.  There i s a good case f o r a t h r e e - y e a r  capital  budget b e i n g allowed to the Department of Highways. By smoothing out the e l e c t i o n year peaks i n t o three year averages,  a c a l c u l a t e d guess can be made as to the  of the HCPI without  the i n f l a t i o n a r y p r e s s u r e o f e l e c t i o n y e a r s ,  Without t h a t p r e s s u r e , t o t a l spending have been about $35  level  from 1 9 5 6  to 1 9 7 1  m i l l i o n l e s s than i t a c t u a l l y was.  would In other  52 words, the p r o v i n c e  might have gained more or b e t t e r  facilities  per d o l l a r i f the c o n s t r u c t i o n c o n t r a c t s had been l e t out over the  evenly  period. Generally,  work done i n the 1961-64 p e r i o d gave more  "mileage" per d o l l a r than i n 1 9 5 6 - 5 8 o r i n 1 9 6 8 - 7 1 . t r i c t had  i t s t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n concentrated  If a dis-  i n t h a t middle  p e r i o d , then i t p r o b a b l y gained r e l a t i v e l y more, i n terms of road f a c i l i t i e s , figure. dardize  than i s apparent from the o v e r a l l investment  I t would be p o s s i b l e , though v e r y cumbersome, t o  stan-  the f i g u r e f o r each e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t i n each year  since 1956-57» according  t o the HCPI.  However, the t o t a l spen-  ding f i g u r e includes a s i g n i f i c a n t l y large  (20-40$) amount o f  work not r e f l e c t e d i n the HCPI - minor improvements, maintenance, snow removal, and ment o f Highways.  surveys,  performed by employees o f the  I t i s more convenient to r e g a r d  o f spending i n t h e i r c u r r e n t d o l l a r v a l u e s ,  and  3.7  THE  the  concentration  i n f l a t i o n or d e f l a t i o n .  ALLOCATIONS OVER TIME The  periods,  figures  to a p p l y  HCPI o n l y to those d i s t r i c t s h a v i n g a pronounced i n a p e r i o d of n o t i c e a b l e  the  Depart-  whole p e r i o d has  been s u b d i v i d e d  into eight  sub-  u s i n g the peak i n spending as a centre p o i n t f o r each  subdivision. H a l f o f the t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n was 10 y e a r s .  spent i n the  last  However, the i n c r e a s i n g amounts of investment i n  c o n s t r u c t i o n and maintenance s i n c e 1 9 5 9 , keep pace w i t h i n f l a t i o n o f p r i c e s .  have o n l y served  to  I f the i n f l a t i o n i n other  53 p r i c e s i s c o n s i d e r e d too - such a s r i g h t s - o f - w a y , day l a b o u r wages, m a t e r i a l s - then the road f a c i l i t i e s o f the p r o v i n c e have probably been expanding a t a slower r a t e i n each year s i n c e 1959-60.  T h i s confirms the d i v i s i o n o f i n c r e a s i n g p r i o r i t y /  d e c r e a s i n g p r i o r i t y suggested  i n the opening  chapter.  TABLE I I BREAKDOWN OF SPENDING, BY PERIOD ( I n e l . F e d e r a l spending on Trans-Canada Highway) Period  Current D o l l a r s - m i l l i o n s - C o n s t a n t 1961 P o l . Total  % of Grand  Av.per year  Total  io o f Grand  Av.per year  19^6-49  52.9  3.5  17.6  57.0  4.1  19.0  1949-52  85.3  5.6  28.4  85.3  6.2  28.4  1952-56*  142.4  9.3  35.6  135.9  9.9  39.0  1956-59 1959-62  229.6  15.0  76.5  189.0  13.8  63.O  244.9  16.0  81.6  229.2  16.6  76.3  1962-65  217.3  14.2  72.4  219.6  16.0  73.2  1965-68  265.0  17.4  221.6  16.2  73.9  1968-71  289.3  19.0  88.3 96.4  236.6  17.2  78.9  Grand Totals  1526.7  100.0  61.1  1374.5  100.0  55.0  1969-72 (est.)  335.0  111.7  261.0  87.0  * Note t h a t 1 9 5 2 - 5 6 covers f o u r y e a r s . A l s o , note t h a t the adjustments f o r the f i r s t t h r e e p e r i o d s a r e based on an e s t i mated HCPI. Source«  Annual Reports, M i n i s t e r o f Highways 1 9 5 5 - 6 t o 1 9 7 0 - 7 1 Annual Reports, M i n i s t e r o f P u b l i c Works, 1 9 4 6 - 7 t o 1954-5. The  fairly  constant spending  s i n c e i 9 6 0 a l s o confirms  the s u s p i c i o n t h a t the p r o v i n c e i s " c o a s t i n g " on the b e n e f i t s o f an e a r l i e r p e r i o d o f i n t e n s i v e development.  When a d j u s t e d f o r  i n f l a t i o n , the r a t e o f spending has added r o u g h l y constant amounts  54 of f a c i l i t i e s throughout the 1960's whereas c a r ownership, p r i v a t e t r a v e l and t r u c k o p e r a t i o n s have heen growing a t an accelerating rate.  S i n c e most o f the v i t a l c o n n e c t i o n s have  heen put i n , the next stage o f spending may he f o r the "highc a p a c i t y p e r i o d " d e s c r i b e d by Winfrey and Z e l l n e r . TABLE I I I INDICATORS OF ROAD USER ACTIVITY, B.C. 1 9 5 0 - 7 2  R e t a i l Trade o f D e a l e r s , Garages, and S e r v i c e S t n s . $ millions Gas Tax* and L i c e n c e Revenue $ millions  1950-51  1960-61  1968-69  256  386  730  900**  101.5  150.0  20.0  51.7  1971-72  Licensed Vehicles i n B.C., p r i v a t e and commercial, thousands  288  584  988  1120**  T o u r i s t Passenger V e h i c l e s from U.S. i n t o B.C. thousands  353  448  1000  1200**  * Some changes o c c u r r e d over the p e r i o d i n the t a x r a t e p e r g a l l o n . I f the e a r l i e r r a t e s t i l l a p p l i e d , then the c o l l e c t i o n s of 1 9 6 8 - 6 9 would have been about $ 8 5 m, and i n 1 9 7 1 - 7 2 , about $130 m. **  E s t i m a t e s from 1 9 7 1 - 7 2 p r o v i s i o n a l  Source:  figures.  B.C. F a c t s and S t a t i s t i c s , Dept. o f Trade and I n d u s t r y , V i c t o r i a , 1970, p. 60, p. 74. F i n a n c i a l and Economic Review, M i n i s t r y o f F i n a n c e ,  V i c t o r i a , 1961, 1 9 6 9 , 1972.  I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note from Table I I I t h a t l i c e n s e d v e h i c l e s and t a x revenues "took o f f " i n the f i r s t decade, but t h a t r e t a i l trade and t o u r i s m "took o f f " i n the second (see F i g . 6 ,  55 following).  The e a r l y " t a k e - o f f "  o f ownership and f u e l con-  sumed suggest t h a t there was pent-up i n t e r n a l demand which, when r e a l i z e d , a t t r a c t e d f u r t h e r a c t i v i t y i n the form o f more numerous o r more expensive v e h i c l e s , equipment and s e r v i c e s , and more t o u r i s t s from the U.S. F i g . 6 - R e l a t i o n o f Spending on Roads, t o I n d i c a t o r s Activity a)  Current D o l l a r s  b)  o f User  Constant D o l l a r s  160. 120. 8040-  4950-1  1960-1  1970-1  M - Maintenance c o s t s , i n $00,000. C - Total costs, i n $000,000. T - Taxes and l i c e n s e s , i n $000,000. R - R e t a i l Trade i n $0,000,000.  1950-1  1960-1  Ca - T o t a l c o s t , a d j u s t e d , in $ million. F - R u r a l T r a f f i c Flow Index 1954 = 100 L - L i c e n s e d v e h i c l e s i n B.C. (x 10,000) V - T o u r i s t v e h i c l e s from U.S, (x 10,000)  Sources $ As i n T a b l e l l l , a l s o Annual Reports, M i n i s t e r o f Highways; Canada, 6 2 . 5 2 0 , (see f o o t n o t e 4, t h i s Figure  1970-1  Statistics chapter).  6 shows t h a t t o t a l spending on roads,  (exclu-  ding the F e r r i e s D i v i s i o n ) has d e c l i n e d as a percentage o f revenue c o l l e c t e d from r o a d u s e r s - from about 200$ i n 1957,  56 to around 100%  i n recent years.  What p r o p o r t i o n of user  taxes  should be r e i n v e s t e d , i s a v e r y c o n t r o v e r s i a l i s s u e , and  i t is  not simply a q u e s t i o n of one  d o l l a r amount r e l a t e d to  another  7 d o l l a r amount. investments  There are many other i n d i r e c t or  invisible  made by s e c t i o n s o f s o c i e t y on b e h a l f o f road  users, such as p r o v i n c i a l parks, p o l i c e p a t r o l s , bus s u b s i d i e s , commuter p a r k i n g space.  operation  On the other hand, road  users c o n t r i b u t e more than j u s t f u e l taxes and l i c e n s e s , such t h i n g s as s a l e s t a x on automobile on commercial o p e r a t o r s , f i n e s ,  through  a c c e s s o r i e s , income t a x  camping and p a r k i n g f e e s . o  Without going i n t o the area o f s o c i a l and it  economic p r i o r i t i e s ,  i s enough to note t h a t the e a r l y importance o f road i n v e s t -  ment has been r e l a t i v e l y d i m i n i s h e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s . F i g u r e 6a d e a l s with amounts s u b j e c t t o v a r y i n g degrees of i n f l a t i o n .  F i g u r e 6b r e l a t e s q u a n t i t i e s of constant v a l u e  to the amounts o f spending a d j u s t e d by the HCPI to constant (1961) d o l l a r s .  The adjustment i s approximate, s i n c e the main-  tenance and day l a b o u r o p e r a t i o n s have been t r e a t e d by  the  HCPI, although they were not i n c l u d e d i n the c a l c u l a t i o n s S t a t i s t i c s Canada to produce t h a t Index.  by  I t i s probable, how-  ever, t h a t i n f l a t i o n f o r those items has been g r e a t e r than f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n alone, so t h a t the adjustment i s somewhat conservative.  Still,  F i g u r e 6b does show how  spending  f a r ahead o f users and v i s i t o r s i n the 1950's and but s l i p p e d back i n r e c e n t y e a r s .  on roads went e a r l y 1960's,  I t has been shown  elsewhere^  t h a t "miles t r a v l l e d per year" i n c r e a s e s as a person's a b l e income i n c r e a s e s , and f u r t h e r , i t i n c r e a s e s as the  disposquality  o f roads and t o u r i s t a m e n i t i e s are improved. t h i n g s have been happening  i n B.C.  That these  i s i n d i c a t e d i n F i g u r e 6b  by the r u r a l t r a f f i c flow index (average d a i l y summer t r a f f i c f o r 30 p o i n t s i n the i n t e r i o r , p l u s P o r t Mann and bridges).  Patullo  T h i s i n d e x c l e a r l y shows t h a t the gap between  1 0  f a c i l i t i e s and use widened over the l a s t 10 y e a r s , more than i s apparent from the c u r r e n t d o l l a r f i g u r e s i n F i g u r e 6 a . The c o n t e n t i o n t h a t p r e s s u r e has been b u i l d i n g f o r a new  up  p e r i o d o f more r a p i d expansion, i s supported i n  both diagrams by the sharp upward t u r n i n r e c e n t spending. P a r t of t h i s i s due to the e x t e n s i o n - t y p e r o u t e s ( i n the n o r t h of Comox d i s t r i c t ,  in Atlin,  i n the C h i l c o t i n , and to Mac-  k e n z i e ) and p a r t o f i t i s due t o the f i n a l stages o f the Yellowhead  and North Thompson connections to A l b e r t a .  But  the r o u t e s which have been r e c e n t l y r e c e i v i n g most a t t e n t i o n are the Northern T r a n s p r o v i n e i a l , e s p e c i a l l y a l o n g the lower Skeena R i v e r ;  the Trans-Canada  on the e a s t s i d e o f Kamloops;  the Southern T r a n s p r o v i n c i a l south o f Nelson and west o f Princeton;  the Lougheed Highway from A g a s s i z t o Haig;  Upper L e v e l s Highway, the Knight S t r e e t b r i d g e , and P a t r i c i a Bay highway.  the  the  The g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d a t t e n t i o n t o  urban t r a f f i c needs i s i n accordance with the c y c l i c nature o f road development.  3.8  DISTRICTS' ALLOCATIONS OVER TIME C e r t a i n d i s t r i c t s group t o g e t h e r i n c e r t a i n time  p e r i o d s (Table I V ) , and suggest the main concerns o f the  58 a u t h o r i t i e s at d i f f e r e n t times. TABLE IV GROUPING OF DISTRICTS ACCORDING TO THE SUB-PERIOD OF THEIR LARGEST SHARE OF TOTAL SPENDING  1946-49  Comox, Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , Boundary-Similkameen, Nelson-Creston, South Peace.  1949-52  Cowiehan, Dewdney, Kootenay, C a r i b o o .  1952-56  Nanaimo, South Okanagan, North Okanagan, Shuswap, Omineca, MacKenzie.  1956-59  North Vancouver, C h i l l i w a c k , Columbia.  1959-62  Vancouver & Burnaby, R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n , R o s s l a n d Trail, Atlin,  1962-65  Delta.  1965-68  Kamloops, F o r t George.  1968-71  Saanich, A l b e r n i , Dewdney (same as 1 9 4 9 - 5 2 ) , Peace, Skeena, P r i n c e Rupert.  NOTEt  North  "Groupings" o n l y are used, and not a n y t h i n g more d e f i nitive. T h i s " s o f t " treatment i s due to the nature o f r e p o r t i n g u n i t s and t h e i r q u a n t i t i e s . The a c t i v i t y which gave l i k e n e s s t o the d i s t r i c t s i n  the  f i r s t 10 years was the development o f trunk l i n k s f o r the  " p u l l i n g t o g e t h e r " o f the p r o v i n c e - f o r example,  from Courte-  nay to Campbell R i v e r , from Hope through t o Osoyoos, from Nelson a c r o s s Kootenay Lake and south t o Creston, the John Hart Highway, and from Cranbrook through t o A l b e r t a .  I n the  f o l l o w i n g 10 y e a r s , the Trans-Canada dominated a l l a c t i v i t y . The d i f f i c u l t Sheep Lake s e c t i o n o f the Southern T r a n s p r o v i n c i a l a f f e c t e d the a l l o c a t i o n to R o s s l a n d - T r a i l ;  and i n A t l i n ,  there was much concern w i t h the S t e w a r t - C a s s i a r r o a d . The 1 9 6 5 - 6 8 p e r i o d was dominated by the Yellowhead and North Thompson r o u t e s - the d i s t r i c t s o f Kamloops and F o r t  59  George claimed an e x t r a o r d i n a r y 2 5 % o f the t o t a l spent districts. product  There a l r e a d y were r a i l w a y s s e r v i n g the  in a l l  forest  i n d u s t r i e s along the F r a s e r and North Thompson V a l -  l e y s , so t h a t these r o u t e s were not of the p i o n e e r i n g type probably  they were intended t o make e a s i e r i n t e r - u r b a n  (Vancouver - Edmonton and and t o complete new  and  contact  P r i n c e George - Edmonton - C a l g a r y ) ,  interesting circuits for tourists,  e s p e c i a l l y f o r those u s i n g the h i g h l y a t t r a c t i v e route i n A l b e r t a .  -  Banff-Jasper  F u r t h e r , the North Thompson r o u t e draws  t r a f f i c o f f the Trans-Canada e a s t of Kamloops, thus d e l a y i n g the need f o r adjustment o f t h a t highway. accentuates  The  Yellowhead  the p o s i t i o n o f P r i n c e George as a hub  city,  w i l l c e r t a i n l y have encouraged more t e r t i a r y a c t i v i t y  to  complement the b a s i c manufacturing which moved i n d u r i n g 1960's, than would have o c c u r r e d without  and  the c o n n e c t i o n  the to  Alberta. There i s a mixture o f a c t i v i t i e s among the  districts  i n c l u d e d i n the most r e c e n t p e r i o d (Table I V ) , and t h i s mixt u r e r e f l e c t s the i n c r e a s i n g range o f f i n e r c h o i c e s open t o the a u t h o r i t i e s . For Dewdney d i s t r i c t , the investment been t o r e l i e v e congestion,  by p r o v i d i n g the n o r t h bank  has exten-  s i o n of the Lougheed Highway as an a l t e r n a t e to the Hope C h i l l i w a c k s e c t i o n o f the 401. l a r g e investment i n Saanich,  Congestion  f o r the widening and  the e x i s t i n g l i n k between V i c t o r i a and nal.  has a l s o f o r c e d the  Swartz Bay  improving ferry  In A l b e r n i , there has been a r e c e n t e f f o r t to  the b a s i c l i n k s o f good q u a l i t y i n t o T o f i n o and Gold  of  termi-  provide River.  60  Major improvements to the e x i s t i n g North T r a n s p r o v i n c i a l Highway  show up i n Skeena and  district,  completion  Bennett Dam  was  P r i n c e Rupert.  In North Peace  o f the roads a s s o c i a t e d with the W.A.C.  c a r r i e d out i n the l a s t sub-period  a case o f c a p i t a l s u b s t i t u t i o n , completing  -  probably  the l i n k t o a  standard w e l l above c u r r e n t needs, t o a v o i d p r o t r a c t e d maintenance c o s t s and the s t a r t - u p c o s t s of c o n t r a c t o r s a t a l a t e r date. A g a i n the h i g h degree of d i f f i c u l t y i n road s t r u c t i o n i n t h i s province has Table IV.  con-  an e f f e c t on the grouping  in  A commitment o f p o l i c y to improve access to c e r t a i n  d i s t r i c t s e q u a l l y , does not r e s u l t i n an equal a l l o c a t i o n o f investment, mainly because o f the t i m i n g and overcoming o b s t a c l e s . lar  p r i o r i t y was  There may  be  difficulty  of  eases where i n f a c t , s i m i -  g i v e n to a number o f d i s t r i c t s , but r e s u l t e d  in vastly different allocations.  Figure 7 i l l u s t r a t e s  the  e f f e c t of commitments to c o n s t r u c t or improve h i g h - c o s t indivisible  connections.  In North Vancouver, the peak r e p r e s e n t s spending on the Upper L e v e l s Highway, and the Squamish Highway; i t was  the  k  01  and  the Deas Throughway o c c u r r i n g c o n s e c u t i v e l y ?  i n Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , i t was and  i n Delta,  firstly  the Hope-Princeton  connection,  l a t e r the major improvements to the F r a s e r Canyon r o u t e .  Kamloops was  i n f l u e n c e d more by the North Thompson r o u t e  by e a r l i e r work on the Trans-Canada.  The  stands out d r a m a t i c a l l y f o r F o r t George. Revelstoke-Slocan  than  Yellowhead Highway The  f i r s t peak i n  i n d i c a t e s the work on the Rogers Pass r o u t e ;  20h  15 -  % 10  1946-7  1968-71 NORTH V A N C O U V E R  DELTA  KAMLOOPS  FORT GEORGE Fig 7.  Share of Total Spending according to sub-periods, for selected districts, (dotted line indicates % share over whole period).  YALE-LILLOOET  REVELSTOKE-SLOCAN ON  62 and  the second peak r e f l e c t s the p r o v i s i o n o f access t o  h y d r o - e l e c t r i c development p r o j e c t s a l o n g the Columbia R i v e r .  3.9  EMPHASIS WITHIN SUB-PERIODS In the p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n , changing a l l o c a t i o n s among  the d i s t r i c t s were scanned f o r i n d i c a t o r s o f u n d e r l y i n g The  grouping  policy.  o f d i s t r i c t s suggested some p o l i c i e s a t work,  i n f e r e n c e s about which would be tempered by the v a r y i n g degree of d i f f i c u l t y i n c o n s t r u c t i o n b e i n g undertaken.  Now i f the  t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n t o a d i s t r i c t f o r the p e r i o d 1 9 4 6 - ? 1 i s taken, and  s u b d i v i d e d a c c o r d i n g t o the share f a l l i n g i n t o each sub-  p e r i o d , a d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n w i l l emerge.  T h i s new p e r s p e c t i v e  i n e f f e c t " s t a n d a r d i z e s " the s i z e , physiography and p o p u l a t i o n v a r i a b i l i t y between d i s t r i c t s . Because t o t a l spending has been i n c r e a s i n g g e n e r a l l y over the p e r i o d , i t might be expected a t f i r s t r e c e n t sub-period  t h a t the most  would have c o n t r i b u t e d most t o the t o t a l f o r  a d i s t r i c t , and t h a t any d i s t r i c t which had i t s l a r g e s t share i n an e a r l i e r sub-period,  p a r t i c u l a r l y before 1 9 5 6 , must have  been r e c e i v i n g an e s p e c i a l l y h i g h The  priority.  e f f e c t o f g e n e r a l l y i n c r e a s i n g budgets (see  Table V) i s shown by the s m a l l e r grouping and  the l a r g e r grouping  i n the f i r s t  decade,  i n the l a s t decade, when compared with  Table IV. If ing  i t i s assumed t h a t t r a f f i c flow has been i n c r e a s -  i n a l l p a r t s o f the p r o v i n c e , then i t would seem t h a t the  f i r s t f i v e d i s t r i c t s l i s t e d i n Table V would soon be r e c e i v i n g  63 g r e a t e r p r i o r i t y f o r the r e l i e f o f t r a f f i c p r e s s u r e . TABLE V GROUPING OF DISTRICTS ACCORDING TO THE SUB-PERIOD OF THEIR MOST INTENSIVE ACTIVITY (CURRENT DOLLARS)  1Q2*6->+9  None  1949-52  Cowichan  1952-56  Esquimalt, South Okanagan, North Okanagan, MacKenzie  1956-59  North Vancouver, C h i l l i w a c k , Kootenay, Columbia  1959-62  Vancouver-Burnaby, D e l t a , R o s s l a n d - T r a i l , Revelstoke-Slocan  1962-65  Boundary-Similkameen, N e l s o n - C r e s t o n  1965-68  Kamloops, F o r t George, South Peace  1968-71  A l b e r n i , Comox, North Peace, A t l i n j and Saanich, Nanaimo, Dewdney, Shuswap, Cariboo, Omineca, Skeena, P r i n c e Rupert,  Yale-Lillooet,  In f a c t , the percentages f o r each o f those d i s t r i c t s have r i s e n i n the l a s t few y e a r s , an i n d i c a t i o n o f the c y c l i c need behind the  p r o v i s i o n o f road f a c i l i t i e s .  grouped i n 1 9 6 8 - 7 1 ,  F o r the l a s t e i g h t  districts  the g r e a t e r p a r t o f investment was t o  r e l i e v e t r a f f i c congestion, or t o upgrade the f a c i l i t i e s t o match the i n c r e a s e d l e v e l o f usage and d e s i r e d standard o f service.  In the other f o u r d i s t r i c t s o f the l a s t  sub-period,  investment was mainly t o p r o v i d e b a s i c l i n k a g e s o f the extens i o n or p i o n e e r i n g type. The v e r y l a r g e , i n d i v i s i b l e d i s t r i c t s i n the middle p e r i o d s .  investments group the  Work on the Trans-Canada was  the  main p r i o r i t y o f the 1956-62 p e r i o d .  F o r 1 9 6 2 - 6 5 , i t was  the  Salmo-Creston l i n k and the R i c h t e r Pass.  In 1 9 6 5 - 6 8 ,  road  64 b u i l d i n g f o r the Peace R i v e r Dam  p r o j e c t boosted the a l l o c a -  t i o n i n South Peace d i s t r i c t . Much o f the i n c r e a s i n g budget has been consumed by i n f l a t i o n , and has not r e s u l t e d i n s i m i l a r l y i n c r e a s i n g lities.  faci-  A t r u e r p i c t u r e o f the p r i o r i t y g i v e n to p a r t i c u l a r  d i s t r i c t s can o n l y be gained through an adjustment i n g , to take account o f i n f l a t i o n .  o f spend-  Changes to Table V as a  r e s u l t o f t h i s adjustment, are n e g l i g i b l e - o n l y f o u r changed s u b - p e r i o d s .  districts  But because o f the v a r y i n g a l l o c a t i o n s  to d i s t r i c t s i n d i f f e r e n t s u b - p e r i o d s , the e f f e c t o f i n f l a t i o n was more severe i n some than i n o t h e r s . approximate  U s i n g the HCPI as an  r e g u l a t o r , the " c o s t " o f i n f l a t i o n  the 1946-71 p e r i o d has averaged  j u s t over 13$.  throughout T a b l e VI shows  the i n c i d e n c e o f t h a t i n f l a t i o n over the d i s t r i c t s . TABLE VI PER  CENT REDUCTION FROM 1946-71 TOTAL, AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR INFLATION  8 9 10 11 12 13  Delta, Boundary-Similkameen None Yale-Lillooet Cowichan, Vancouver-Burnaby, Nelson-Creston South Okanagan, R o s s l a n d - T r a i l , Kootenay, South Peace E s q u i m a l t , Comox, C h i l l i w a c k , North Okanagan, Columbia  Average 14 15 16 17 18  Nanaimo, Dewdney, Shuswap, Cariboo, Omineca, A t l i n , MacKenzie North Vancouver, R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n Kamloops, Skeena F o r t George, North Peace Saanich, A l b e r n i  21  P r i n c e Rupert  65 Saanich d i s t r i c t has p r o b a b l y been a f f e c t e d more than any o t h e r by i n f l a t i o n o f c o n s t r u c t i o n and o t h e r p r i c e s . A l a r g e p o r t i o n o f r e c e n t spending there was f o r buying r i g h t s - o f - w a y , c o s t s o f which have c e r t a i n l y r i s e n  faster  s i n c e the I 9 6 I base year than the p r i c e o f u n i t s o f road construction.  Table VI emphasizes t h a t i n the comparison o f  d i s t r i c t s ' a l l o c a t i o n s , d i s t r i b u t i o n over t i m e - p e r i o d s i s an important  factor. The d i f f e r e n t shaped p r o f i l e s i n F i g u r e 8 r e f l e c t  d i f f e r e n t stages o f development and the d i f f e r e n t demands on the r o a d system. b e i n g put i n ;  I n Comox, the b a s i c connections a r e s t i l l  i n R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n and F o r t George, the major  o b s t a c l e s have been overcome. and Cariboo a r e b e i n g upgraded.  The main roads through  Omineca  The r e c e n t l a r g e shares i n  Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , North Okanagan, Saanich and North Vancouwer, r e f l e c t measures b e i n g taken t o r e l i e v e c o n g e s t i o n on main throughways. period.  The i n f l a t i o n - g a p has i n c r e a s e d i n the l a t e s t  The c y c l e o f p r o v i s i o n o f road f a c i l i t i e s has come  round t o r e l i e f o f urban and semi-urban c o n g e s t i o n , i n areas o f v e r y h i g h n o n - b u i l d i n g c o s t s such as l a n d r e c l a m a t i o n , l e g a l surveys, t r a f f i c d i s r u p t i o n , and c o o r d i n a t i o n w i t h o t h e r utilities.  These two t h i n g s combined mean t h a t the r e a l g a i n  i n a c t u a l f a c i l i t i e s i s now much l e s s than i t was a decade ago, and t h a t c u r r e n t spending  should be measured a g a i n s t  c u r r e n t needs, n o t a g a i n s t p r e v i o u s l e v e l s o f spending. The p r o f i l e s i n F i g u r e 8 show a c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f spending i n j u s t one o r two s u b - p e r i o d s .  T h i s a g a i n emphasizes  66 Fig 8. Distribution of District Totals, according to sub-period 1946-71 (plotted for 3-ycar averages). is adjusted for inflation _^  J  I  _J  I  I  -J  L  I  I  I  I  1,1  I  L  '  •  '  •  '  I  I  I  67 the occurrence o f l a r g e i n d i v i s i b l e investments, a i n l o o k i n g a t the a l l o c a t i o n s over time.  The  problem  e a r l y commit-  ments t o v i t a l l i n k s stand out - from Hope through to Osoyoos, from P r i n c e George to Peace R i v e r , and so on.  The  dominant  i n v l u e n c e o f the Trans-Canada p r o j e c t i s v e r y pronounced ( e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e c o n s t r u c t i o n p r i c e s were d e c l i n i n g i n the middle p e r i o d ) .  The a t t e n t i o n to d i s t r i c t s o f f the Trans-  Canada r o u t e i s i n d i c a t e d i n the l a s t two  sub-periods (Table V),  as f a c i l i t i e s elsewhere were upgraded t o a s i m i l a r l y h i g h standard, (Omineca, Skeena, P r i n c e Rupert, South Peace, C a r i b o o ) , and as new  f a c i l i t i e s were extended  (Comox, A l b e r n i ,  Dewdney, A t l i n , and C a r i b o o ) .  3.10  THE TOTAL ALLOCATION REVIEWED The dominant p r o c e s s e s r e v e a l e d i n the i n s p e c t i o n  of a l l o c a t i o n s over time and a r e a are mainly four,and f a l l i n some temporal o r d e r :  b a s i c connections - f i r s t l y t o Peace  R i v e r and Hope-Princeton, Hardy, T o f i n o , C h i l c o t i n j  more r e c e n t l y t o K e l s e y Bay,  e x t e r n a l connections - n o t a b l y the  Trans-Canada, Deas Throughway, Yellowhead linksj  and North Thompson  l o c a l i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n - e s p e c i a l l y farm and  roads, i n Okanagan and Cariboo p a r t i c u l a r l y ; r e l i e f , replacement  - these are u s u a l l y around  and a t r a p i d l y e s c a l a t i n g  Port  tourist  improvement, urban a r e a s ,  costs.  A v a r i a t i o n of the process of b a s i c c o n n e c t i o n has been e x t e n s i o n or p i o n e e r i n g , as i n A t l i n , or to S t u a r t Lake i n Omineca.  68 The  p a t t e r n of investment has  frequently  the d i f f i c u l t y of r o a d - b u i l d i n g i n the p r o v i n c e , quent "lumpiness" o f investment, and mile cost of The  revealed  the  conse-  the h i g h l y v a r i a b l e per  links. p a t t e r n showed the l i m i t e d choice amongst urgent  needs i n the e a r l y years,  compared with the wider range o f  a l t e r n a t i v e c h o i c e s e x i s t i n g today.  In order to  decide  amongst these f i n e r c h o i c e s , there i s a g r e a t e r need f o r a d e f i n i t i o n of p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s , a l o n g e r p l a n n i n g  horizon,  and more measureable i n p u t to the investment d e c i s i o n . Although i t i s somewhat obscured by the p e c u l i a r arrangement o f accounting  districts,  there has been a p a t t e r n  of spending around and between areas o f concentrated t i o n , not completely  popula-  d i s t u r b e d by d i s p a r i t i e s o f c o n s t r u c t i o n  c o s t s or development p o l i c i e s . I t was  p o s s i b l e to d i s c o v e r some of the major  f a c t o r s u n d e r l y i n g the g e n e r a l p a t t e r n - p o p u l a t i o n , e x i s t e n c e o f through paths, and dominant.  e x t e r n a l connection  distance, were  P r o p o r t i o n o f trunk mileage, p r o p o r t i o n o f improved  mileage, t e r r a i n and  c l i m a t e make up a second group of impor-  tant f a c t o r s . There were suggestive  d e v i a t i o n s from the  general  p a t t e r n - such as the roads f o r h y d r o - e l e c t r i c development, or f o r p i o n e e r i n g , support  or f o r t o u r i s t c i r c u i t s .  Such roads, i n  o f s p e c i a l o b j e c t i v e s , have taken a s i g n i f i c a n t  p o r t i o n of the spending i n A t l i n ,  P r i n c e Rupert, Comox, Peace  R i v e r , F o r t George, Kamloops, Revelstoke-Slocan, Cariboo.  pro-  Omineca,  and  69 The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a d i s t r i c t ' s share over  diffe-  r e n t time p e r i o d s i n d i c a t e d the changing p r i o r i t i e s i n provision of f a c i l i t i e s .  There i s some evidence o f sequence  and inter-dependence, but the non-homogenous r e p o r t i n g u n i t s d i s t u r b e d such p a t t e r n s . There has been a peaking o f a c t i v i t y around  election  years, which has brought on some e x t r a c o s t s i n the form o f i n f l a t e d contract prices.  E x t r a spending i n e l e c t i o n years  was g e n e r a l l y g i v e n over t o some l a r g e c o n t r a c t s o f recons t r u c t i o n and paving, and t o i n c r e a s e d l o c a l a c t i v i t y o f maintenance and improvement. to the p u b l i c g e n e r a l l y ;  The f i r s t type i s v e r y  "visible"  the second type i n c r e a s e s l o c a l  employment and l o c a l incomes d i r e c t l y . C o n s t r u c t i o n p r i c e s have r i s e n over the l a s t t e n y e a r s , which r e f l e c t s i n c r e a s i n g wages and perhaps the b i a s o f more d i f f i c u l t work i n remoter areas (Skeena, P o r t MacNeil, Chilcotin,  Lougheed). I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f the p a t t e r n o f spending was  tempered by the c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n times o f h i g h o r low construction costs.  The e f f e c t o f i n f l a t i o n over the p e r i o d has  been unevenly spread amongst the d i s t r i c t s . The approach  t o i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f the data on  spending - through h y p o t h e s i s i n g some i d e a l p a t t e r n out o f experience elsewhere and l o g i c a l deductions - p r o v i d e d a u s e f u l p e r s p e c t i v e on l i k e n e s s e s and d e v i a t i o n s t o the p a t t e r n . I t helped t o show up the s t r o n g e r group o f f a c t o r s ,  existing  amongst many o t h e r s , which i n f l u e n c e a p a t t e r n o f investment, but which may not become obvious i f one works outward from the data t o the elements.  70 REFERENCES : 1 Support f o r the " s o f t " treatment eomes from comments i n Robinson X1956); Thomas and Anderson ( 1 9 6 5 ) ; Robinson and Caroe ( 1 9 6 7 ) . 2 "Open", i n the d e f i n i t i o n of the Department o f Highways, i n c l u d e s a l l roads improved beyond the " c l e a r i n g o n l y " s t a g e . 1962 was chosen s i n c e i t marks a p l a t e a u of both spending and road e x t e n s i o n , f o r the whole p e r i o d . 3 A l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f these c o s t s has been r e p a i d by the B.C. Hydro C o r p o r a t i o n t o the Department o f Highways. In the treatment o f t o t a l spending on roads, these repayments have been i n c l u d e d , s i n c e they r e p r e s e n t a r e a l c o s t t o the P r o v i n c e , and a r e a l a d d i t i o n to the t o t a l s t o c k o f road f a c i l i t i e s . 4 Highway C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i c e Index, S t a t i s t i c s Canada Series 62520. D e s c r i p t i o n o f sources, uses, and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n g i v e n i n Sept. 1 9 6 2 , e d i t i o n . 5 1 9 5 7 - 8 and 1963-4 were y e a r s o f approximately equal spending. 58 c o n t r a c t o r s were p r e s e n t i n the f i r s t year, absent i n the second; 76 were absent i n the f i r s t , p r e s e n t i n l a t e r y e a r . Only 40 were p r e s e n t i n both l i s t s o f tenders. Source: Annual Report, M i n i s t e r o f Highways, 1 9 5 7 - 8 , p. 2 3 3 3 ; 1963-4, p. 6 3 - 7 8 . 6 The d e f l a t i o n a r y e f f e c t on the HCPI o f more i n t e n s e c o m p e t i t i o n i n the s l a c k years has been taken i n t o the "guess". T h i s i n c r e a s e d c o m p e t i t i o n would r e s u l t from the a t t r a c t i o n of new f i r m s d u r i n g the busy p e r i o d . 7 Commission of I n q u i r y i n t o Road User Charges, V i c t o r i a , B. C.  1959,  8 A.A. Walters, The Economics o f Road User Charges, a l s o , Walters ( 1 9 6 1 ) .  (1968)  9 Highway Research Board, NCHRP Report No. 1 2 2 , p. 7 9 , U.S. Bureau of P u b l i c Roads, G u i d e l i n e s f o r T r i p G e n e r a t i o n A n a l y s i s , I 9 6 7 , p. 1 2 . Less c o n c l u s i v e , but s u g g e s t i v e , was G a r r i s o n , ( 1 9 5 6 ) , p. 2 8 0 - 8 8 . 10 Flow index, 1954 1971 = 4 0 3 .  = 100,  1959  - 165,  1964  = 235,  CHAPTER 4  SPENDING ON B.C. HIGHWAYS, 1946-71, ACCORDING TO CATEGORIES  4.1  PURPOSE OF THE CHAPTER The p r e v i o u s chapter d e s c r i b e d the p a t t e r n o f t o t a l  spending over time and over a r e a .  W i t h i n the t o t a l ,  there  were i d e n t i f i e d f i v e c a t e g o r i e s and two c l a s s e s o f items o f spending.  I t i s suggested  t h a t a l l these items a r e r e a l l y -  interdependent, and t h a t i n s p e c t i o n o f t h e i r shares over  time  and a r e a w i l l o f f e r some i n s i g h t s on the i n t e n t i o n s o f the authorities.  A h y p o t h e t i c a l sequence o f spending, based on a  process o f i n t e g r a t i o n o f an a l r e a d y s e t t l e d a r e a , i s o f f e r e d as a way o f approaching road development.  d e s c r i p t i o n o f the B.C. experience o f  Development o f a branch  system might e n t a i l  development o f the trunk system, o r might be a s u b s t i t u t e f o r it.  P r o v i s i o n o f h i g h standard t r u n k s might e x c i t e a l o c a l  demand f o r development o f a p p a r e n t l y i n f e r i o r branch  roads.  Trunk roads might be a d j u s t e d t o discourage o r a v o i d l o c a l branch t r a f f i c .  As f o r the c a t e g o r i e s , maintenance and  c a p i t a l c o s t s may be mutually s u b s t i t u t a b l e t o some  degree.  Survey work i n d i c a t e s the opening up o f new r o u t e s o r the realignement  o f e x i s t i n g ones.  Right-of-way  c o s t s , which a r e  g e n e r a l l y lumped i n t o c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s , w i l l t e l l o f the  71  72 specific difficulties  o f road p r o v i s i o n i n some a r e a s .  G r a v e l l i n g , s u r f a c i n g , o r r e - s u r f a c i n g c o s t s may i n d i c a t e where the a u t h o r i t i e s p e r c e i v e a b u i l d - u p i n t r a f f i c or  the need f o r p r e v e n t i v e maintenance.  flow,  Disaggregation o f  the g r o s s f i g u r e s i n t h i s manner should p r o v i d e a b e t t e r understanding o f the p a t t e r n and purposes  4.2  o f investment.  RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRUNK DEVELOPMENT AND BRANCH DEVELOPMENT By d e f i n i t i o n , t r u n k s serve p o i n t s i n the r e a l  world - they a r e u s u a l l y "downtown" t o "downtown".  Only a  v e r y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l t r a f f i c has immediate a c c e s s to  them ( i . e . ,  Branches,  t o o r i g i n s and d e s t i n a t i o n s l o c a t e d on t r u n k s ) .  a g a i n by d e f i n i t i o n , draw o r d i s t r i b u t e  from o r t o these p l a c e s .  traffic  I n c r e a s i n g economic a c t i v i t y g e n e r a l  l y r e q u i r e s more t r a f f i c and more space, the former  demanding  i n c r e a s e d c a p a c i t y o r q u a l i t y o f f a c i l i t i e s , the l a t t e r demanding e x t e n s i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s .  Over a l o n g p e r i o d o f  development o f a road system, w i t h t r a f f i c i n c r e a s i n g , one might expect a tendency ing (B).  flows g e n e r a l l y  t o spend an i n c r e a s -  p r o p o r t i o n on the branch o r f e e d e r o r "back-route" Given a demand-led investment  t h i s g e n e r a l tendency  programme, then  roads  logically,  would be i n t e r r u p t e d from time t o time  by spending on the trunk system ( T ) , t o r e l i e v e  congestion  and maintenance c o s t s o c c u r r i n g with i n c r e a s e d t r a f f i c volume. A t h i g h l e v e l s o f urban development, trunk spending w i l l be dominant, t o c a t e r f o r i n t e r - u r b a n complementarity,  as  again  73 happened with the U.S. i n t e r s t a t e freeway system.  A graph o f  the T/B r a t i o w i l l d e s c r i b e a s e r i e s o f waves over time and, perhaps, a l s o over a r e a . frequency district  The a r e a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n h e i g h t and  o f waves would be due t o the r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n o f a i n the t o t a l p a t t e r n o f t r a f f i c f l o w s .  Those  areas  near the centre o f a network, i n terms o f t r a f f i c f l o w s , would experience  the e a r l i e r waves o f T development.  Such  simple  p r o f i l e s would depend on the a u t h o r i t i e s f o l l o w i n g a n e u t r a l , demand-led programme o f Fig.  a)  investment.  9 - H y p o t h e t i c a l P r e s e n t a t i o n o f Trunk/Branch R a t i o o f Spending "Central" area  b)  " P e r i p h e r a l " area  25 years  25 y e a r s  F i g u r e 9 i s an i d e a l i z e d r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the p a t t e r n one might expect area o f the road system.  i n a c e n t r a l and i n a p e r i p h e r a l The frequency  o f the T c r e s t s would  depend on the q u a l i t y and c a p a c i t y o f the e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , t o g e t h e r with the r a t e o f g e n e r a t i o n o f t r a f f i c .  I f the  a u t h o r i t i e s worked with a l o n g p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n , and i f the budget a l l o c a t i o n s were o n l y l o o s e l y c o n s t r a i n e d , then the  7  k  frequency o f T c o s t s would be reduced. These two c o n s i d e r a t i o n s would a f f e c t the h e i g h t of the wave v a r i a t i o n s .  For o r i g i n a l or pioneer  connections,  the c r e s t i s l i k e l y to be v e r y pronounced - t h a t i s , a v e r y l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f the d i s t r i c t ' s a l l o c a t i o n going i n t o t h a t one  job.  C r e s t s r e p r e s e n t i n g improvements o r adjustments o f  a f a c i l i t y would be r a t h e r s m a l l e r , g i v e n the same s i z e c a t i o n t o the d i s t r i c t .  allo-  However, i f a l i n k had t o be r e b u i l t  or r e p l a c e d , then the c r e s t would a g a i n be v e r y pronounced. The  trough f o l l o w i n g such a c r e s t would be v e r y steep and  deep, s i n c e the new f a c i l i t i e s would reduce o p e r a t i n g and maintenance c o s t s f o r a t l e a s t a few y e a r s . The T/B r a t i o p r o v i d e s a conceptual device w i t h which t o approach the masses o f f i g u r e s to be d e r i v e d from the f i n a n c i a l accounts.  I t i s a way o f i l l u m i n a t i n g  trends  w i t h i n d i s t r i c t s and sharp d e v i a t i o n s which suggest of t r a f f i c o r c o s t s , o r which suggest other p a r t i c u l a r o b j e c t i v e .  build-up  the p u r s u i t o f some  Comparison o f d i s t r i c t s would  i n d i c a t e the r e l a t i v e importance o f the two road c l a s s e s from time t o time w i t h i m p l i c a t i o n s as t o the nature o f t r a f f i c flows and economic a c t i v i t y i n c e r t a i n a r e a s . One cannot assume t h a t a l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p  exists  between the change i n t r a f f i c volume (F) and the change i n cost o f road f a c i l i t i e s  (R).  The f o l l o w i n g diagrams i n d i c a t e  the l a r g e s t e p a d d i t i o n s t o accumulating f a c i l i t i e s a t d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f flow.  costs f o r various  75 F i g . 10 - G e n e r a l i z e d Diagrams o f the R e l a t i o n o f I n c r e a s i n g Flow t o the Accumulating C a p i t a l and Maintenance Cost o f F a c i l i t i e s a)  Change from f e r r y t o bridge  b)  A d d i t i o n o f t r u c k lane on h i l l s , 2-lane highway  c)  Elimination of i n t e r s e c t i o n by an overhead c r o s s i n g  d)  Replacement o f 2-lane highway by l i m i t e d access freeway  R  R  R = accumulating c o s t o f f a c i l i t i e s F = t r a f f i c flow Source:  S y n t h e s i z e d from statements i n Winfrey and Z e l l n e r , NCHRP Report No. 122, p. 6 0 - 5 ; 80-5? and i n Tallamy A s s o c i a t e s , NCHRP Report No. 42, p. 9, pp. 4 1 - 5 5 . I n each case,  costs just before  there i s a p e r i o d o f s h a r p l y  rising  the adjustment, and a p e r i o d o f minimal c o s t  a f t e r the adjustment.  I n (e) above, o p e r a t i n g and maintenance  c o s t s f o r the i n t e r s e c t i o n a r e dispensed  with.  I n (a) and (d),  there i s a r e l a t i v e l y l o n g p e r i o d b e f o r e  costs s t a r t to increase  76  againj  whereas i n (h), the r e s p i t e i n o p e r a t i n g and mainte-  nance c o s t s i s r e l a t i v e l y b r i e f .  A curve r e p r e s e n t i n g user  c o s t would show a sharp f a l l a f t e r each adjustments case of (a) and The  ( c ) , i t would d e c l i n e to almost  case o f (a) and  i n the  zero.  (b) above can q u i t e p o s s i b l y  occur i n branch development (B) as w e l l , and may  help to  e x p l a i n the depths of some of the troughs o c c u r r i n g i n F i g u r e 9.  The  troughs can be regarded as an absence o f T, and/or as  an i n d i c a t i o n o f a p a r t i c u l a r l y l a r g e investment B development, whether new  i n B.  The  c o n s t r u c t i o n or improvement,  can  be g e n e r a l l y d e s c r i b e d i n t h r e e p r o c e s s e s : i)  i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n or i n t e g r a t i o n :  the  "back-route"  connections between the t r u n k s , which a l s o serve minor i n t e r mediate communities and a c t i v i t i e s .  In B r i t i s h Columbia,  such  r o u t e s are Kelowna-Roek Creek, or C l i n t o n - L i l l o o e t - L y t t o n ,  or  L i t t l e Fort-100 M i l e House. ii)  intensification:  network impinging on a node.  i n c r e a s i n g the s u b - r e g i o n a l T h i s has o c c u r r e d around  Creek and around W i l l i a m s Lake and iii)  pioneering:  Dawson  Quesnel.  extending p e r i p h e r a l branches  and  b a s i c connections - such as to T o f i n o , t o B e l l a Coola, t o Mackenzie, or t o P o r t Hardy from Sayward. A t the e a r l i e s t stage o f road development, the  T/B  r a t i o of simple mileage would be b i a s e d towards B - t h a t i s , numerous l o c a l roads f o r e x p l o r a t i o n , farming,  forestry,  gathered i n sub-systems and drawn t o g e t h e r by s u p e r i o r r a i l or  water t r a n s p o r t .  Such was  the case with the F r a s e r V a l l e y ,  77 Okanagan, West Kootenay and E a s t Kootenay sub-systems b e f o r e 19^6  - they were drawn together  p o o r l y e s t a b l i s h e d trunk  4.3  the  roads.  1946-71,  SPENDING IN B.C.  by the r a i l w a y and not by  BY ROAD SYSTEM  Table VII shows a d i s t o r t i o n t o the i d e a l p o s t u l a t e d i n the p r e c e d i n g  section.  The  pattern  p r o p o r t i o n o f B to  T dipped i n the middle years b e f o r e resuming a r a p i d t r e n d towards B,  The  d e c l i n e i n the middle years h i g h l i g h t s an  element of e x t e r n a l p o l i c y s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c i n g the  alloca-  t i o n s w i t h i n the p r o v i n c e .  saw  The  years 1956  t o 1962,  b u s i e s t a c t i v i t y i n b u i l d i n g the Trans-Canada Highway.  the Federal  money spent i n the N a t i o n a l Parks i s i n c l u d e d i n the T amounts; so i s a l a r g e share (roughly 50% o f the t o t a l f o r the Canada) o f f e d e r a l money p r o v i d e d the highway.  The  p r o v i n c e had  route - perhaps more than was  f o r a l l other s e c t i o n s o f  to a l l o c a t e money to t h a t warranted from a p u r e l y  p o i n t o f view - i n order to get the b e n e f i t s o f the s h a r i n g scheme. has  local  cost-  highway, from V i c t o r i a through to F i e l d ,  taken about $ 3 3 0 m i l l i o n over the whole p e r i o d , o f which  about $180 one  The  Trans-  m i l l i o n has  come from the F e d e r a l Government.  sense, the e x t e r n a l connection  has  d i s t o r t e d the  or p u r e l y l o c a l a l l o c a t i o n which would have occured;  In  "natural" in  another sense, the c o s t - s h a r i n g scheme has r e l e a s e d c e r t a i n p r o v i n c i a l funds to be used elsewhere i n the p r o v i n c i a l road system.  78 TABLE V I I TOTAL SPENDING IN THE DISTRICTS, ACCORDING TO ITEM AND TO ROAD SYSTEM, 1946-71 C o n s t r u c t i o n and Improvement ($m.current)  Period B  T  1946-49 1949-52 1952-56 1956-59 1959-62 1962-65 1965-68  3.8 7*0 18.7 20.2 34.5 82.8  33.4 41.9 76.7 162.0 190.9 141.8 128.4  1968-71  105.9  114.5  Total  298.5  899.6  1946-71  25.5  Construction & Improvement  B/T %  18 13  60  33  A l l Items  ($m. I96I) T  B  4.2 7.0 17.2  37.1 51.9 70.4 122.7 175.1 144.7  19.3 18.5 35.2 64.7 100.3 78.4 - 84.8 244.5  787.0  B/T  18  fo  B'%  T %  22 24  78 76 69 77 82  31 13  54  31  23  18 28 44  72  52  56 48  33  67  * Note the breakdown o f maintenance and snow-cleaning items between T and B i s not p e r f e c t l y c o r r e c t . Only u n t i l 1 9 5 6 - 7 were d e t a i l s p r o v i d e d i n the accounts o f where i n the d i s t r i c t the c o s t was i n c u r r e d . F o r a l l l a t e r y e a r s , an estimate o f the breakdown has been made, based on r e l a t i v e T/B mileage, and adding a percentage f a c t o r f o r the e x t r a c o s t s l i k e l y on T roads. E r r o r i s l i k e l y t o r e s u l t i n a s l i g h t exaggeration o f the B share. Since the amounts i n v o l v e d a r e about 1 5 p e r cent o f t o t a l , and s i n c e t h e b i a s i s c o n s i s t e n t over the p e r i o d , then any e r r o r should n o t upset the v a l i d i t y o f the g e n e r a l t r e n d shown by the percentages. Despite  t h a t d i p o f B i n the middle p e r i o d , the  general trend i s clear.  Since the g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f T  spending o c c u r r e d e a r l i e r than t h a t o f B, i t i s necessary t o a d j u s t t h e t o t a l f o r each i n t o constant means o f HCPI (Table V I I ) . cant except i n r e c e n t  ( I 9 6 I ) d o l l a r s by  The d i f f e r e n c e s a r e n o t s i g n i f i -  years.  Amongst the d i s t r i c t s , the T/B r a t i o can serve as  79 a rough guide t o the demands on l o c a l r o a d development. TABLE V I I I PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL SPENT ON BRANCH SYSTEM 1946-71 Percentage Range 0-9  Districts Columbia  10-19  C h i l l i w a c k , Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , F o r t George, D e l t a , R o s s l a n d - T r a i l , Kootenay, Skeena, NelsonCreston, Kamloops.  20-29  Saanich, North Vancouver, Dewdney, BoundarySimilkameen, Shuswap.  30-39  Vancouver, South Peace, North Peace, C a r i b o o .  40-49  Omineca, North Okanagan, South Okanagan, P r i n c e Rupert.  50-59  Cowichan, R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n .  60+  Esquiraalt, Nanaimo, Comox, A l b e r n i , Mackenzie.  Atlin,  Vancouver I s l a n d , R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n , Omineca, Peace R i v e r , Cariboo, Okanagan and P r i n c e Rupert have averaged a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f B (over 30 per c e n t ) .  relatively  I n these d i s t r i c t s ,  t r a f f i c f o r off-highway areas has r e c e i v e d g r e a t e r a t t e n t i o n : farm and ranch roads;  mining r o a d s j  the n o r t h o f Vancouver I s l a n d ;  b a s i c connections i n  roads f o r h y d r o - e l e c t r i c  developments i n Revelstoke and Peace R i v e r .  Special projects  i n P r i n c e Rupert d i s t r i c t i n c l u d e d the r o a d to P o r t Edward, and from Masset to Skidegate on the Queen C h a r l o t t e I s l a n d s . Trunk development has been much more dominant i n Skeena, F o r t George, Columbia, Kootenay.  Nelson-Creston, R o s s l a n d - T r a i l and  A l l but the l a s t have experienced expensive  d i f f i c u l t construction projects;  but a l s o , areas o f  and  settle-  ment i n these d i s t r i c t s have been r a t h e r c o n f i n e d , as i s  80 apparent  from the t o u r i s t road map  c i a l government.  The T/B  p u b l i s h e d by the p r o v i n -  r a t i o , i n such cases, seems t o  d e s c r i b e the nature of economic a c t i v i t y i n a d i s t r i c t ,  as  to whether i t i s concentrated o r d i s p e r s e d - a c o n s i s t e n t l y h i g h e l e v a t i o n o f the p r o f i l e suggests e i t h e r an e a r l y  stage  o f road connection, or a c o n f i n e d p a t t e r n of a c t i v i t y ; e l e v a t i o n suggests a d i s t r i c t developed  a  low  "growing" l o c a l l y w i t h w e l l -  trunk r o u t e s , or w i t h none a t a l l ,  and having a  dispersed pattern of a c t i v i t y . Such an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n c o u l d be used o n l y as a f i r s t approach t o the breakdown of spending. rough guides, t h e r e are some l a r g e anomalies.  As w i t h a l l Delta, C h i l l i -  wack, Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , Kamloops and Shuswap have q u i t e a h i g h degree of development, as i n d i c a t e d by any map population d i s t r i b u t i o n .  o f roads or of  However, t h e i r B p r o p o r t i o n over  the whole p e r i o d has been depressed by the r e l a t i v e dominance o f spending on the Trans-Canada trunk.  Kamloops was  also  a f f e c t e d by the l a r g e a l l o c a t i o n t o the North Thompson t r u n k . I n developed areas, a f t e r t r u n k s o f good q u a l i t y have been put i n , a h i g h e r B r a t i o can be expected, but w i t h v e r y pronounced waves o f T, mainly because adjustments f a c i l i t i e s are extremely expensive large t r a f f i c flows.  to  i n b u i l t up a r e a s w i t h  In l e s s developed areas, the T waves  would p r o b a b l y be l e s s pronounced, as minor adjustments  can  be made t o meet the demands of i n c r e a s i n g , but s t i l l much lower, l e v e l s of t r a f f i c flow.  However, t h i s second  l i z a t i o n has not h e l d t r u e f o r B.C.  genera-  i n the 1946-71 p e r i o d .  81 The T connections have been i n l a r g e , i n d i v i s i b l e lumps, i n v o l v i n g l o n g d i s t a n c e s and d i f f i c u l t o b s t a c l e s .  The genera-  l i z a t i o n may h o l d t r u e i n r u r a l d i s t r i c t s f o r the p r e s e n t and immediate  f u t u r e , s i n c e the b a s i c l i n k s o f good q u a l i t y have  been p u t i n , and r e l a t i v e l y minor improvements can be made such as t r u c k l a n e s , c o n t r o l l e d a c c e s s , and improved  vision.  A s e r i o u s d i f f i c u l t y i n i n t e r p r e t i n g the T/B r a t i o f o r a p a r t i c u l a r d i s t r i c t i s t h a t l a r g e a d d i t i o n s t o T may be f o r c e d i n a d i s t r i c t because o f p r e s s u r e coming from  elsewhere  i n the system, and not a t a l l a s s o c i a t e d with the s t a t e o f B i n the d i s t r i c t .  The Trans-Canada  have been c i t e d as examples.  and North Thompson Highways  The same i s t r u e o f the Northern  T r a n s - p r o v i n c i a l through Skeena d i s t r i c t , link.  o r the Salmo-Creston  A f u r t h e r d i f f i c u l t y i s p r e s e n t e d by the e l e c t o r a l  d i v i s i o n s c u t t i n g a c r o s s sub-systems  o f roads - a d i s t r i c t  may  i n c l u d e more than one d i r e c t i o n o f T and, t h e r e f o r e , waves w i l l appear more f r e q u e n t l y than i f t h e r e i s a s i n g l e t r u n k with minor branches  (see F i g u r e 1 1 ) .  I n such cases, the r e l a -  t i v e importance o f each r o a d c a t e g o r y i n terms o f spending can be a s s e s s e d by comparing  the T/B r a t i o o f mileage w i t h the  T/B r a t i o o f spending from time t o time. F i g . 11 - Diagrams o f Trunk Mileage w i t h i n E l e c t o r a l a)  Cariboo  b)  Kamloops  Districts  82 4.4  CHANGES IN THE T/B RATIO OVER TIME A number o f d i s t r i c t s have been s e l e c t e d f o r obser-  v a t i o n o f the p a t t e r n d e s c r i b e d by t h e T/B r a t i o .  The average  h e i g h t o f t h e T percentage l i n e w i l l v a r y from d i s t r i c t t o district,  depending mainly on t h e percentage o r c a p a c i t y o f  trunk mileage w i t h i n the t o t a l mileage i n c l u d e d i n an e l e c t o ral district.  Costs o f T p e r m i l e have averaged about  or f i v e times those o f B.  four  F o r example, the T percentage f o r  C h i l l i w a c k , F o r t George and Columbia  has remained h i g h e r than  average, while t h a t of. Comox, A l b e r n i , and North Okanagan has remained below average  (see F i g u r e 1 2 ) .  t i o n s o f T mileage i n Cariboo, Kootenay  The d e c l i n i n g proporand North Okanagan  suggest some f u r t h e r opening up o f these d i s t r i c t s has been taking place. Comox d i s t r i c t bears out the sequence, earlier,  postulated  o f an a r e a a t the p e r i p h e r y o f a road network - a  h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f T, g r a d u a l l y d e c r e a s i n g f o r a w h i l e , a s i g n i f i c a n t new a d d i t i o n t o T, then a r e v e r s i o n t o the t r e n d . The trunk r o u t e here i s from Courtenay t o K e l s e y Bay) the branch r o u t e s , which a r e o f the e x t e n s i o n and p i o n e e r i n g type, are  i n t o the Gold R i v e r and P o r t MacNeil a r e a s . Saanich t y p i f i e s the p r o f i l e t o be expected more  commonly i n u r b a n i z e d d i s t r i c t s .  The p r o f i l e  shows peaks  r e p r e s e n t i n g the l a r g e e f f o r t r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e thoroughfares i n built-up areas.  The f i r s t peak was f o r spending on  Highway emerging from V i c t o r i a  (1953-55)$  the  Trans-Canada  the  second peak r e p r e s e n t s spending on the highway from  B  %  50  0 46-49  C O M O X  50  K O O T E N A Y  68  S A A N I C H  C A R I B O O  84 V i c t o r i a to Swartz Bay. appears  A f t e r a b r i e f r e s p i t e , another peak  a t the end of the p e r i o d , as another l a r g e investment  i s r e q u i r e d t o r e l i e v e the t r a f f i c p r e s s u r e which has up a l o n g t h i s r o u t e ( P a t r i c i a Bay Highway).  built  Much of the  branch system i n t h i s and other u r b a n i z e d d i s t r i c t s w i l l  not  be a l l o c a t e d spending through the Department o f Highways r a t h e r , through the l o c a l  municipalities.  Cariboo shows the g e n e r a l t r e n d of the T/B u n d i s t u r b e d by p r e s s u r e s e x t e r n a l t o the d i s t r i c t , e x t r a - p r o v i n c i a l connections.  ratio  such as  Kootenay has a s i m i l a r  though i t s p e r i o d o f prime a t t e n t i o n to T was  profile,  more p r o t r a c t e d ,  because o f i n c l u s i o n i n the d i s t r i c t of trunk r o u t e s c o v e r i n g five  directions. D e l t a a l s o i n c l u d e s trunk r o u t e s c o v e r i n g many  d i f f e r e n t d i r e c t i o n s - Deas Throughway, 401 Highway, 99 way.  High-  The T wave was v e r y pronounced and spread over q u i t e a  long period.  The  deep trough i n D e l t a ' s p r o f i l e i n d i c a t e s a  change o f emphasis, investment  now  catering f o r r e l i e f  branch  roads f o r l o c a l t r a f f i c - p a r t i c u l a r l y the Knight S t r e e t B r i d g e . E x t e r n a l i n f l u e n c e shows up i n D e l t a ' s accounts i n the p r o v i s i o n o f over-passes  f o r the r a i l w a y t o Roberts Bank and of an  access road t o the p o r t . North Okanagan e x e m p l i f i e s the expected p r o f i l e investment  i n a well-developed r u r a l a r e a .  There was  an  moderately  h i g h c o n c e n t r a t i o n on the T r o u t e s , d e c l i n i n g  of early,  s h a r p l y a f t e r the b a s i c connections o f good q u a l i t y were completed.  S i n c e p r e s s u r e of l o c a l and through t r a f f i c  built  85 up c o n s i d e r a b l y , more investment had to be put back i n t o T i n t h i s case, widening and improving the a r t e r i a l s  about  Vernon. The use o f t h r e e - y e a r averages  i n plotting  the  T/B  r a t i o gives: a b e t t e r i n d i c a t i o n o f the purposes o f  investment  than the p r o f i l e s p r o v i d e d by annual a l l o c a t i o n s .  These can  be d i s t o r t e d from a g e n e r a l t r e n d by a number of f a c t o r s ,  such  as unfavourable weather and r u n - o f f c o n d i t i o n s i n a p a r t i c u l a r area, or the s a t i s f a c t i o n of s h o r t - t e r m p o l i t i c a l aims, or the absence of a s u i t a b l e c o n t r a c t o r , or the need to c o o r d i n a t e w i t h the p r o j e c t s o f o t h e r a u t h o r i t i e s . ding f o r p o l i t i c a l g a i n may district  to d i s t r i c t !  l o c a l farm roads;  A l s o , the d i r e c t i o n o f  v a r y from year t o year and  i n one  spen-  from  case, i t might be f o r improving  i n another case, i t might be f o r removing  an o b s t a c l e on the main trunk system.  F u r t h e r , because of the  lump-sum nature o f many p r o j e c t s i n road f a c i l i t i e s i n  B.C.,  the investment  " p i e " cannot be cut i n any i d e a l p a t t e r n from  year to y e a r .  P r o j e c t s s t a r t e d or r e - s t a r t e d i n an  year have o f t e n r e q u i r e d another two c o n t r a c t to be completed.  election  or t h r e e y e a r s f o r the  As an i n d i c a t i o n o f the v a r i a t i o n  i n the T/B r a t i o from year to year, the s i x d i s t r i c t s above are r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 1 3 .  The h i g h degree  selected of v a r i -  a t i o n i n Saanich i s due t o the a c c o u n t i n g of p r o g r e s s on the P a t r i c i a Bay Highway.  Note t h a t Cariboo and Kootenay p r o f i l e s  show an upturn i n the l a t e s t year, c o n t r a r y t o the g e n e r a l t r e n d - t h i s r e f l e c t s new  investment  i n upgrading the trunk  r o u t e s t o the i n c r e a s e d l e v e l of usage.  Fig 13. Trunk-Branch Spending, for Selected Districts (plotted annually)..  co  ON  87 4.5  MEANING OF THE TRUNK/BRANCH DIVISION OF SPENDING The T/B r a t i o i s a u s e f u l d e v i c e f o r s e t t i n g  d e s c r i b i n g what has happened i n r o a d development:  about  but i t i s  not  v e r y u s e f u l f o r p l a n n i n g purposes, and i t i s a poor b a s i s  for  prediction.  There i s o b v i o u s l y some interdependence o f  branch development,  traffic  consistency i s lacking.  flow, and t r u n k development, but  Up t o a c e r t a i n stage, branch roads  t h a t open up a d i s t r i c t w i l l generate t r a f f i c from the branches and i n t o the t r u n k s .  They w i l l a l s o a t t r a c t t r a f f i c a l o n g the  t r u n k s and i n t o the branches - n o t a b l y , t o u r i s t t r a f f i c . such circumstances, spending on one system w i l l  In  eventually  r e q u i r e spending on the other, g i v e n t h a t economic a c t i v i t y in a district  i s sustained or increased.  Trunk  might not r e q u i r e l o c a l branch development,  development  however, i f the  trunk i s f o r t r a f f i c p a s s i n g through an u n a t t r a c t i v e a r e a : but i f urban c e n t r e s on a through path a r e a b l e to t r a p some of  the p a s s i n g t r a f f i c ,  then over a l o n g p e r i o d , economic  a c t i v i t i e s t h e r e might r e q u i r e more space and perhaps, t h e r e f o r e , some expansion o f branches. Beyond the stage o f interdependence o f systems, when traffic to  c o r r i d o r s become c o n s t r i c t e d , spending on B might be,  some e x t e n t , s u b s t i t u t e f o r spending on T.  C o n s i d e r the  case where a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f t r a f f i c on a trunk i s r e a l l y l o c a l t r a f f i c - t h a t i s , on a t r i p l e s s than a complete to-urban movement.  urban-  An a l t e r n a t i v e r o u t e might be p r o v i d e d t o  serve the l o c a l t r a f f i c ,  t h e r e b y r e d u c i n g the need f o r f u r t h e r  investment i n the trunk r o u t e (see F i g u r e 1 4 ) .  Substitution  88 o f B f o r T p r o b a b l y occurs o n l y a t "very h i g h " l e v e l s o f t r a f f i c flow.  The a l t e r n a t e might not show up i n the  o f one p a r t i c u l a r F i g . 14  a)  accounts  district.  Diagrams o f R e l a t i o n s h i p o f B and T Systems (Width o f l i n e p r o p o r t i o n a l to flow and f a c i l i t y c o s t s )  Interdependence  o f B and T  T h i s sequence i s t y p i f i e d by the F r a s e r Canyon r o u t e (on a v e r y broad s c a l e ) , and by the Okanagan Highway (on a sub-regional scale). b)  S u b s t i t u t i o n of B f o r T  h"  1  ft  u  WTri T h i s sequence i s t y p i f i e d by the b u i l d i n g o f Knight S t . Bridge; o r , on a much l a r g e r s c a l e , the L i t t l e Fort-100 M i l e House connection, or the Kelowna-Rock Creek "back-route". In these l a t t e r eases, the r e l i e f of p r e s s u r e i s , more s p e c i f i c a l l y , p r o v i d i n g more a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t o u r i s t t r a f f i c . Even i f the determining r e l a t i o n s h i p o f trunk t o branch can be d i s c e r n e d , there i s s t i l l an important i n r e l a t i n g the T/B  difficulty  t r e n d t o , say, t r a f f i c counts, and p r o j e c -  t i n g i t i n t o the f u t u r e .  T h i s d i f f i c u l t y l i e s i n the v a r y i n g  r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f l e v e l s of flow to c o s t s of f a c i l i t i e s ,  which  were s e t out i n F i g u r e 10, with v e r y g e n e r a l i z e d dimensions. The exact dimensions  o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p v a r y from case to  89 case, and t h e i r causes may r a t h e r than economic and  w e l l be p o l i t i c a l and  engineering.  social,  Which c l a s s o f c o s t s  to minimize i s e s s e n t i a l l y a p o l i t i c a l and  s o c i a l question -  user c o s t ? or immediate c a p i t a l c o s t ? o r long-term cost?  total  Q u a l i t y o f s e r v i c e p r o v i d e d by the f a c i l i t y i n v o l v e s  t r a v e l c o s t , r u n n i n g speed, t o t a l t r a v e l time, s a f e t y and ease, and so on.  reliability,  Standards g u i d i n g the  are p o l i t i c a l l y or s o c i a l l y determined.  planners  T h e r e f o r e , the  r a t i o would become a u s e f u l p r e d i c t o r o n l y i f the  standards  were s t r i c t l y determined and s t r i c t l y adhered t o , and p l a n n i n g h o r i z o n were constant f o r a l l p r o j e c t s . unrealistic conditions.  T/B  i f the  These are  The r a t i o remains, then, a d e s c r i p -  t i v e device f o r o r d e r i n g h i n d s i g h t and f o r i l l u m i n a t i n g a p r o c e s s w i t h i n road development. As a d e s c r i p t i v e d e v i c e , the T/B  r a t i o has  out a s i g n i f i c a n t t r e n d i n the a l l o c a t i o n of t o t a l i n B.C., has  and  pointed spending  i n the a l l o c a t i o n s f o r v a r i o u s d i s t r i c t s .  shown the e f f e c t s on spending  p a t t e r n s o f the  processes  of b a s i c connection, l o c a l i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n and r o u t e tution.  substi-  I t s e l e v a t i o n on the graphs has i n d i c a t e d the  t i v e importance of the r e s p e c t i v e r o a d systems from to  district.  connections  It  rela-  district  I t has emphasized the importance of e x t e r n a l i n the r o a d - b u i l d i n g h i s t o r y o f  The  T/B  B.C.  r a t i o has p r o v i d e d a v e r y g e n e r a l commentary  on the p o l i c i e s behind a l l o c a t i o n s o f spending the p r o v i n c e .  E a r l i e r , the obvious  b a s i c trunk connections l a t e r , t h e r e was  on a r e a s  i n t e n t i o n s were t o  of h i g h c o s t and good q u a l i t y j  of develop and  more emphasis on l o c a l branches and a l t e r n a t e  90 routes.  The concern f o r good e x t e r n a l connections  became  c l e a r - Trans-Canada, Yellowhead, North Thompson, Deas Throughway.  R e l i e f o f t r a f f i c p r e s s u r e has appeared as a s i g n i f i c a n t  o b j e c t i v e i n r e c e n t years - i n Saanich,  North Vancouver,  D e l t a , Dewdney, Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , and North Okanagan.  Evidence  o f the p o l i c y o f e x t e n s i o n o r p i o n e e r i n g was p r o v i d e d by the r a t i o i n A t l i n , Coraox, A l b e r n i , P r i n c e Rupert, Cariboo and Omineca.  I n g e n e r a l , the r a t i o h e l p s one r e c o g n i z e  the trends  i n road development, which a s t a t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n (as i n Chapter 3) does not c l e a r l y  4.6  illustrate.  THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MAINTENANCE AND CONSTRUCTION COSTS As roads a r e upgraded, maintenance c o s t s (M) g e n e r a l l y  decrease f o r the same t r a f f i c volume ( F ) . redesigned  and r e b u i l t w i t h a tarmac s u r f a c e , then the opera-  t i o n s o f grading, brushing, v i r t u a l l y eliminated. M,  I f a g r a v e l road i s  p a t c h i n g and s h o u l d e r i n g w i l l be  A h i g h c a p i t a l c o s t o f f s e t s long-term  I f F r i s e s g r e a t l y on the new f a c i l i t y , then i t i s p o s s i b l e  t h a t o t h e r o p e r a t i n g c o s t s w i l l i n c r e a s e , such as i c e and snow c l e a r i n g and road p a t r o l s . So a f t e r the b a s i c connections trict,  a r e put i n t o a d i s -  g e n e r a l l y M w i l l become a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f the  d i s t r i c t budget, while d e c l i n i n g i n a c t u a l amount.  The s i t u a -  t i o n w i l l h o l d u n t i l i n c r e a s i n g F f o r c e s up M (and e v e n t u a l l y f o r c e s new a d d i t i o n s and improvements), o r u n t i l q u a l i t y and extent o f s e r v i c e a r e i n c r e a s e d .  A t f i r s t , F w i l l be a b l e t o  91 increase  much f a s t e r than M,  u n t i l the o p e r a t i n g  the f a c i l i t y i s approached.  capacity  the  i n a purely  outcome o f c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s ,  o f design, roadbed and  composition of F .  1  M and  user  f a s t e r than F.  Maintenance c o s t s per m i l e , sense, are  Grade and  surface,  q u a l i t y o f s e r v i c e to p r o v i d e .  The  d e c i s i o n s w i l l be evolved a t two and  quality  and  the l e v e l  and  but M i s i n no way  to F, f o r there i s a v i t a l i n t e r v e n i n g  central administration,  and  technical  c u r v a t u r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are  sometimes important f a c t o r s a l s o *  "tied"  d e c i s i o n about what  c r i t e r i a i n f l u e n c i n g such  levels - guidelines  from  the  assessment of a c t u a l needs a t  the  district level.  Where a f a c i l i t y i s due  the near f u t u r e ,  or where the a u t h o r i t i e s are  f o r replacement i n intending  slow the g e n e r a t i o n of t r a f f i c on a p a r t i c u l a r l i n k , q u a l i t y of service  (Q) might be allowed t o d e c l i n e .  i s i n c r e a s i n g f a s t e r than F, then Q w i l l be constant r o a d system (assuming no B.C.  Generally,  inflation).  Department o f Highways seems to have pur-  l a r l y on v i t a l r o u t e s ,  appear t o be g r e a t e r  F.  Apart from maintenance o f s u r f a c e s  and  signposts,  the p a t r o l s a g a i n s t  If M  improving over a  sued such a p o l i c y o f improving Q - a d d i t i o n s  the  to  then  however, as F r i s e s , M w i l l a l s o r i s e , to m a i n t a i n Q.  The  of  With i n c r e a s i n g l y h i g h e r l e v e l s  of F, p a r t i c u l a r l y on a d e t e r i o r a t i n g s u r f a c e , costs w i l l increase  capacity  and  t o M,  particu-  than i n c r e a s e s  s h o u l d e r s , markings  expensive items a t t e n d a n t to h i g h F hazards and  in  are  delays.  I n the d e l i b e r a t e development o f a road system,  large  92  c a p i t a l investments w i l l o f t e n be made f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n o f b a s i c connections, as a way o f keeping down long-term maintenance  and user c o s t s .  The e x t e n t t o which such  substitution  can be c a r r i e d out depends on the p e r c e i v e d demands o f the t o t a l t r a n s p o r t system, the p r i o r i t y accorded t o v a r i o u s o b j e c t i v e s o f r o a d c o n s t r u c t i o n , and the l i m i t a t i o n s o f the department's budget.  When c o n c e n t r a t i n g on j u s t a few expensive,  indivi-  s i b l e p r o j e c t s , M, and t h e r e f o r e Q, i n o t h e r p a r t s o f the r o a d system w i l l be decreased;  b u t a f t e r the main connections o f  good q u a l i t y a r e put i n , M p e r m i l e w i l l d e c l i n e i n the s h o r t run.  T h i s s i t u a t i o n a l l o w s the a u t h o r i t i e s to extend b a s i c  maintenance s e r v i c e s , and t o i n c r e a s e Q over a g r e a t e r m i l e age.  A c o s t l y trunk f a c i l i t y w i l l e v e n t u a l l y b e n e f i t the o f f -  highway back-road  u s e r s (such as farmers) by r e l e a s i n g more  of a d i s t r i c t ' s M budget f o r use i n the branch  system.  D i s t r i c t s having a low p r o p o r t i o n o f M t o C would l o g i c a l l y be i n a "development phase" o r " r e l i e f phase" o f road-building.  R e l i e f can take the form o f upgrading,  r e s t r i c t i n g access, or r e p l a c i n g a route.  widening,  D i s t r i c t s with a  h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f M t o C are b e i n g overlooked i n the development phase, o r a r e e n j o y i n g the b e n e f i t s o f r e c e n t l y b u i l t facilities,  o r a r e b u i l d i n g up to a congested h i g h - c o s t s i t u -  a t i o n on ageing  facilities.  I n B.C. over the whole p e r i o d a t a f a s t e r r a t e than C. i n t e r r u p t e d about  1946-71, M i n c r e a s e d  F i g u r e 15 shows t h a t the t r e n d was  I96O-63, when M a c t u a l l y d e c l i n e d , f o l l o w i n g  a p e r i o d o f v e r y heavy spending  on C.  S i n c e then, M has r i s e n  93 at  an average 6.5%  1956,  per year, C a t about 2%.  M averaged about 25% o f a l l spending.  From 1946 This  proportion  d e c l i n e d i n the middle years o f i n t e n s i v e c o n s t r u c t i o n v i t y to about 14%;  to  acti-  but s i n c e then, has edged back t o around  20%. Fig.  15 - R e l a t i o n s h i p o f Construction,Maintenance and T r a f f i c Flows, B.C. 1946-71 (Plotted f o r 8 sub-periods).  F//  '71  •46  F - R u r a l T r a f f i c Flow Index 4- 20 (see f n . 3.10) C - Total Construction Costs T 10, $ m i l l i o n M - T o t a l Maintenance Cost, $million I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f the i n c r e a s e s i n M, p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e 1963i i s e s s e n t i a l l y s p e c u l a t i v e . the i n c r e a s e s are due to h i g h e r would f a l l  C e r t a i n l y , some o f  wages f o r day-labour,as these  d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y on M r a t h e r than C.  nance o p e r a t i o n s  a r e g e n e r a l l y more piecemeal, with  and broken s h i f t s , and more l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e , than scale construction contracts. patching  Mainte-  full-  T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y true o f  o r s m a l l improvement jobs, where t r a f f i c  i s an important f a c t o r .  delays  interference  Some p a r t o f the i n c r e a s e s i s due to  the g r e a t e r extent o f the road system, which has i n c r e a s e d a t 2 an average  o f j u s t under 1 per cent per y e a r .  Yet another  i n d e n t i f i a b l e p a r t o f the i n c r e a s e s i s due to the r i s i n g c o s t o f f e r r y o p e r a t i o n s , mainly i n Comox, MacKenzie, Omineca, Nelson-Creston and R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n - c o s t s have r i s e n t o improve the q u a l i t y and extent o f s e r v i c e , and t o keep ahead of i n c r e a s i n g F.  However, c o s t s f o r a l l f e r r y o p e r a t i o n s ,  e x c l u d i n g the B.C. F e r r i e s D i v i s i o n , have remained a t a f a i r l y constant 15 t o 17 per cent o f t o t a l M, over the l a s t ten years. T h e r e f o r e , i t seems t h a t i n c r e a s i n g M i s due l a r g e l y to o p e r a t i o n s intended t o m a i n t a i n Q as F has r i s e n , and o p e r a t i o n s intended t o improve Q over a l a r g e r p a r t o f the r o a d system.  There are no i n d i c a t i o n s i n the accounts as  to which i n t e n t i o n was the s t r o n g e r , though i t might be d i s coverable from the accounts o f o p e r a t i o n s a t the d i s t r i c t l e v e l , before aggregation into e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s . i n d i c a t i o n i s o b t a i n e d by imposing  the t o t a l M l i n e  F i g u r e 6 a o f the p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r .  A general onto  D e s p i t e a l l the improve-  ments o f s t r u c t u r e s and s u r f a c e s , M rose more s h a r p l y than gas t a x and l i c e n c e c o l l e c t i o n s , s u g g e s t i n g t h a t Q was b e i n g more than maintained  i n the f a c e o f i n c r e a s i n g F,  F u r t h e r , i n the  Annual Report o f 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 (p. 7 2 ) the S e n i o r Maintenance Engineer r e f e r r e d t o "the improving  standard o f highway main-  tenance"! and again, i n the Annual Report o f 1 9 6 6 - 6 7  (p. 7 3 ) ,  to "the growing demand f o r improvements and p a v i n g c a r r i e d out under our day-labour programme".  The c o n c l u s i o n , t h a t Q i s  95 b e i n g i n c r e a s e d and extended, i s supported a l s o by the a n c i n g formula f o r d i s t r i c t M c o s t s .  fin-  T h i s a l l o w s a 7 per  i n c r e a s e from year to year, on top o f any new  cent  construction  work which would a c t u a l l y reduce the c u r r e n t need f o r M. The pronounced t a k e - o f f i n M c o s t s o c c u r r e d i n 1966-67  (up 16  per cent over p r e v i o u s y e a r ) , w i t h  boost i n 1 9 6 9 - 7 0 (up 14 per c e n t ) .  The 1 9 6 6 - 6 7  another  financial  year f o l l o w e d a winter of heavy s n o w f a l l s , so perhaps some p a r t o f the i n c r e a s e i s due to r e p a i r of damage caused pavement d e t e r i o r a t i o n and s p r i n g r u n - o f f . does not account  by  This explanation  f o r the h i g h l e v e l s of M b e i n g s u s t a i n e d i n  subsequent y e a r s .  Those two  o u t s t a n d i n g years  correspond  w i t h e l e c t i o n - y e a r a c t i v i t y , which would h e l p e x p l a i n the i n c r e a s i n g Q and the i n c r e a s i n g extent o f maintenance s e r vices.  There appears to be no communality i n the c h a r a c t e r  o f d i s t r i c t s b e i n g favoured w i t h i n c r e a s e s ( g e n e r a l l y more than 20 per cent over the p r e v i o u s y e a r ) .  Now,  g i v e n the  d i f f e r e n t needs o f the v a r i o u s d i s t r i c t s , and the a p p a r e n t l y i n d i s c r i m i n a t e a l l o c a t i o n o f i n c r e a s e d M, be t h a t M was  the c o n c l u s i o n must  not being used as a f a c t o r i n a s p e c i f i c  but as a means o f s a t i s f y i n g user demand i n a g e n e r a l  4.7  policy, way.  MAINTENANCE COSTS OVER AREA The M a l l o c a t i o n s i n 1 9 7 0 - 7 1 ranged from about $500  per mile-improved-^  i n the Similkameen-Okanagan areas, up to  about $ 2 , 9 0 0 i n the Lower Mainland. unobtainable  from the accounts  P r e c i s e f i g u r e s are  s i n c e d o l l a r amounts are g i v e n  96 by e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s w h i l e mileages are l i s t e d by highways administrative d i s t r i c t s .  A l s o , i t has not been p o s s i b l e t o  c a l c u l a t e f o r a l l the e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s s i n c e some are s p l i t between, or spread a c r o s s , more than one highway d i s trict. Still,  the grouping o f d i s t r i c t s by M c o s t s per  m i l e i s i n d i c a t i v e of the purpose The Lower Mainland ranked a r e a .  ($2,900)  i s about  allocations.  double t h a t of the next  R o s s l a n d - T r a i l , Nelson-Creston and R e v e l s t o k e -  S l o c a n are grouped  about $ 1 , 2 0 0  Comox around $ 1 , 0 0 0 ; L i l l o o e t $800?  behind t h e i r  to $ l , 5 0 0 j  F o r t George and  P r i n c e Rupert, Kootenay and Y a l e -  Kamloops, Shuswap, Omineca and Skeena between  $600 and $ 7 0 0 , and Peace R i v e r , Cariboo, Okanagan, and Boundary-Similkameen a l l between $ 5 0 0 and $ 6 0 0 . R e f e r r i n g back t o the f a c t o r s o f f e r e d as determinants o f M c o s t (para. 3 ,  Section 4 : 6 ) ,  one has t o d i s c o u n t  the q u a l i t y o f f a c i l i t i e s as a g e n e r a l l y p e r v a s i v e f a c t o r i n current a l l o c a t i o n s .  I t was  suggested t h a t h i g h q u a l i t y  i l i t i e s would reduce M c o s t s per m i l e ; i n the p r e c e d i n g paragraph,  but i n the  fac-  distribution  h i g h M c o s t s are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  areas o f h i g h e r q u a l i t y f a c i l i t i e s  (as measured by the v e r y  broad standard o f m i l e s paved); and v i c e - v e r s a , except i n the Boundary-Okanagan a r e a s .  Nor do c l i m a t e and t e r r a i n p r o v i d e  a g e n e r a l e x p l a n a t i o n of the M a l l o c a t i o n s , though they have c o n t r i b u t e d to the grouping about $500 to $ 6 0 0 . The most important determining f a c t o r i s almost c e r t a i n l y the l e v e l of f l o w .  The p r e s s u r e on f a c i l i t i e s i n  97 the Lower Mainland i s i n d i c a t e d by the tremendously h i g h a l l o c a t i o n o f $2,900 per m i l e  (which i s about 10 per  o f the c a p i t a l c o s t per m i l e o f the 401 Mann b r i d g e ) .  The  need f o r a new  cent  freeway west of P o r t  p e r i o d o f C spending,  r e l a t e d to the r e l i e f of congestion,  i s a g a i n shown.  more remote areas, with much lower l e v e l s of F, the M  In allo-  c a t i o n i s much reduced, d e s p i t e the more s e v e r e p h y s i c a l 4 c o n d i t i o n s - Skeena, Columbia, Comox, P r i n c e Rupert.  The  a l l o c a t i o n s o f M are almost c e r t a i n l y l e d by user demand, and not guided by a p o l i c y o f d i f f e r e n t i a l improvement o f  one  d i s t r i c t over another. 4.8  THE  MEANING OF M COST PATTERNS As s t a t e d e a r l i e r , M c o s t s r e l a t i v e to other  ding were h i g h i n the decade from 1946,  d e c l i n e d i n the next  p e r i o d through to 1965» then r o s e a g a i n . m i l l i o n i n 1956-57 was then,  The  peak of  not exceeded u n t i l 1964-65» and  the t o t a l has grown every y e a r .  capacity of f a c i l i t i e s ,  of some f e r r i e s , allowed about f i v e y e a r s .  $11.7 since  High c o s t s i n the e a r l y  years h e r a l d e d a p e r i o d o f i n t e n s i v e c o n s t r u c t i o n . proved q u a l i t y and  spen-  and  The  im-  the replacement  the r e d u c t i o n of M spending f o r  I t i s l i k e l y t h a t the r a p i d l y r i s i n g  costs  i n r e c e n t y e a r s h e r a l d y e t another p e r i o d of i n t e n s i v e construction. It  i s n o t i c e a b l e t h a t the areas of h i g h e s t M c o s t s  per m i l e are a l s o the areas having g e n e r a l l y the lowest t i o n s of M c o s t s t o t o t a l C c o s t s f o r the whole p e r i o d .  proporThe  98 p r e s s u r e f o r new  f a c i l i t i e s i s i n the areas of c o s t l i e s t  p r o v i s i o n of f a c i l i t i e s . finding alternative  There i s , then, some urgency i n  means o f r e l i e v i n g o r d i f f u s i n g t h a t  p r e s s u r e i n order to break out o f the p r o v i s i o n - g e n e r a t i o n congestion s p i r a l .  Whether the new  f a c i l i t i e s w i l l he  pro-  v i d e d soon i s a q u e s t i o n o f p o l i c y , and t h i s matter i s not c o n f i n e d simply to the Department o f Highways. allocations  I n any  o f M have been shown as o n l y a weak guide  case, to  p o l i c y a t work, b e i n g more c l o s e l y t i e d to l e v e l s o f userdemand than to wider o b j e c t i v e s .  The  evidence  f o r the  i n t e n t i o n a l p u r s u i t of s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e s i s i n the allocations,  capital  and f o r the p e r i o d as a whole, i n the a l l o c a -  t i o n s to the trunk system.  99 REFERENCES j 1 See NCHRP Report No. 42, 196?, Ch. 4. The study t r i e s to f i n d uniform M per m i l e , to be a p p l i e d by a l l a u t h o r i t i e s concerned w i t h the U.S. I n t e r s t a t e Highways. 2 M i l e s open, March 1962j 22,584; March 1971« Sourcei Annual Report, M i n i s t e r o f Highways.  24,180.  3 I n c l u d e s o n l y paved and g r a v e l r o a d s . I t i s assumed t h a t M c o s t s on e a r t h roads a r e kept to a bare minimum. 4 O b s t a c l e s and damaged pavements a r e p r o b a b l y more t o l e r a b l e i f met o n l y once (e.g., on t o u r i s t v a c a t i o n ) , than those met r e g u l a r l y (e.g., on commuter or shopping t r i p s i n urban a r e a s ) .  CHAPTER 5  INVESTMENT IN THE TRUNK NETWORK  5.1  INTRODUCTION S i n c e 1 9 ^ 6 , the trunk roads have taken about 67% o f  t o t a l spending.  P o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n and n a t u r a l b a r r i e r s  c o n s t r a i n the shape and number o f i n t e r - u r b a n r o u t e s $  also,  new p i o n e e r o r e x t e n s i o n r o u t e s and r e l i e f o f urban c o n g e s t i o n have come t o r e c e i v e h i g h e r p r i o r i t y .  Consequently,  t h i s pro-  p o r t i o n has d e c l i n e d t o around 50% i n r e c e n t y e a r s . The a c t u a l s i z e o f the amount spent on trunk would alone  j u s t i f y a s p e c i a l treatment  roads  o f these r o a d s .  But  a s t r o n g e r j u s t i f i c a t i o n i s i n the r o l e p l a y e d by the trunk system i n the development and i n t e g r a t i o n o f B.C., e s p e c i a l l y since 1 9 4 6 .  D e s c r i b i n g the t i m i n g , d i s t r i b u t i o n and c o s t o f  trunk development i s the necessary f i r s t  step towards under-  s t a n d i n g a l a r g e p a r t o f the transport-economy r e l a t i o n s h i p . The  data w i l l be reduced here t o t o t a l c o s t and p e r m i l e c o s t  of each l i n k , and o u t s t a n d i n g d i s p a r i t i e s and w i l l be e x p l a i n e d . investment connected  The important  correspondences  q u e s t i o n o f how c l o s e l y  on a l i n k might be r e l a t e d t o response  a t the  node, w i l l then be c o n s i d e r e d i n some d e t a i l . 100  To  101 get an i d e a o f the g e n e r a l response, changes i n t r a f f i c w i l l be r e l a t e d t o investment i n l i n k s .  flow  Some measures o f  s t r u c t u r a l change w i l l be made, t o show the v a r y i n g c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f p a r t i c u l a r l i n k s t o the t o t a l system.  Structural  measures by themselves w i l l be seen as not p a r t i c u l a r l y h e l p f u l towards an understanding o f economic e f f e c t s o f l i n k additions.  5.2  IMPORTANCE OF THE TRUNK SYSTEM A g e n e r a l i z e d response t o r o a d investment  r e a d i l y o b s e r v a b l e on the trunk system,  i s more  although the branch  roads o f f e r many cases o f s m a l l - s c a l e , i s o l a t e d responses.  The  most important i n f l u e n c e o f the trunk system i s t h a t i t c o n f e r s r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n a l advantages amongst the s e t o f nodes i n the P r o v i n c e , e i t h e r by p r o v i d i n g a c c e s s , o r by r e d u c i n g the c o s t of movement o f people and goods.  Not o n l y do r e l a t i o n s h i p s  between nodes change, but probably a l s o the r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f i n t e r v e n i n g s e t t l e m e n t s t o end-point nodes.  Small l o c a l s t o r e s  and domestic o r farm s e r v i c e s , which s u r v i v e i n a market cons t r a i n e d by a h i g h f r i c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e , w i l l be exposed t o c o m p e t i t i o n from the h i g h e r o r d e r nodes.  These i n t e r v e n i n g  a c t i v i t i e s tend t o disappear, u n l e s s they can adapt t o serve the market o f p a s s i n g t r a f f i c . trunk system,  Thus, the development o f a  i n the i n t e r e s t s o f e f f i c i e n c y o f d i s t r i b u t i o n ,  can cause s o c i a l d i s r u p t i o n which has t o be " p a i d f o r " i n o t h e r ways - r e l o c a t i o n and r e t r a i n i n g o f i n d i v i d u a l s , s h i f t i n l a n d v a l u e s , t a x e s , and so on.  Hodge ( I 9 6 5 ,  and 1 9 6 9 ) showed how  102 some trade  c e n t r e s d i e or change under the pressure  t i t i o n and  the quest f o r e f f i c i e n c y , a tendency s t r o n g l y  accentuated "by t r a n s p o r t development. f a c t o r s of production and r e s p o n s i v e ,  fluid  a f a c t o f t e n overlooked or assumed away i n Trunk development i s not  as wholly b e n e f i c i a l a l l o f the  seen  time.  Hutchinson (1972, p. 499)  contends t h a t where the  the highway system are both w e l l developed, as i n  Southern O n t a r i o , way  showed t h a t not a l l  or elements o f s o c i e t y are e q u a l l y  a s s e s s i n g c o s t s and b e n e f i t s .  economy and  He  o f compe-  then changes i n t r a n s p o r t c o s t s through h i g h -  investment are so s m a l l t h a t they appear to have  little  impact on the l o c a t i o n or p r o s p e r i t y o f economic a c t i v i t i e s , so t h a t the  "use  of user b e n e f i t s o n l y i s j u s t i f i e d " i n a s s e s -  s i n g the r e p e r c u s s i o n s t h a t statements  o f investment.  but one  There i s some t r u t h i n  suspects t h a t the economic a c t i v i t i e s  r e f e r r e d to are c o n f i n e d to the manufacturing s e c t o r , which have g e n e r a l l y lower m o b i l i t y than other urban a c t i v i t i e s . For c e r t a i n l y there are s i g n i f i c a n t responses to changed a c c e s s i b i l i t y patterns  caused by freeway or subway t r a n s i t develop-  ments, i n r e t a i l i n g , o f f i c e f u n c t i o n s , r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g s , warehousing and markets o n l y .  d i s t r i b u t i o n , and The  not l i m i t e d to  intra-urban  problem o f e v a l u a t i n g r e p e r c u s s i o n s  investment i n developed a r e a s i s r e a l l y one a f f e c t e d a c t i v i t i e s and  of  of i d e n t i f y i n g the  the a f f e c t e d components w i t h i n them.  A second major i n f l u e n c e o f the trunk system i s on the p o t e n t i a l f o r s o c i a l and  economic i n t e g r a t i o n .  Isolation  i s o f t e n a c o n t r i b u t o r y f a c t o r i n s o c i a l or p o l i t i c a l  dissensionj  103 remote communities o f t e n f e e l n e g l e c t e d ,  "missing out"  on  o p p o r t u n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e to the r e s t of the p o p u l a t i o n , t h e i r v i s i b l e , p h y s i c a l connections inadequate.  are a c t u a l l y or r e l a t i v e l y  T h i s phenomenon i s not q u a n t i f i a b l e , y e t i t may  i n f l u e n c e r o a d - b u i l d i n g p r i o r i t i e s , as suggested  by the  t e s t s of Gold R i v e r and Port Hardy r e s i d e n t s d u r i n g time i n 1972,  the F r a s e r Canyon r o u t e .  pro-  election  or by the o c c a s i o n a l a g i t a t i o n o f M e r r i t t  zens f o r b u i l d i n g o f the C o q u i h a l l a route as an to  while  citi-  alternative  A trunk road system u s u a l l y  provides a greater p o t e n t i a l f o r r e g i o n a l i n t e r a c t i o n  than  the r a i l w a y or r i v e r systems (which serve more s p e c i f i c  loca-  t i o n s , r e s o u r c e s and t r a n s p o r t f u n c t i o n s ) . Investment i n the trunk system w i l l tend t o reduce the total freight b i l l  f o r the P r o v i n c e .  Increasing s p e c i a l i z a t i o n ,  a f e a t u r e o f most advanced economies, p l a c e s i n c r e a s i n g emphasis  on the d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n .  pronounced i n B.C.,  T h i s emphasis i s p a r t i c u l a r l y  v/here the demand f o r imports  where the avenues of imports are few,  where the  i s high, resource-  development nodes are dependent on e x t e r n a l s u p p l i e s o f almost e v e r y t h i n g , and where the m e t r o p o l i t a n area has such a dominance over i t s h i n t e r l a n d .  Since the per c a p i t a c o s t of  i n t e r n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i n B.C.  i s so v e r y h i g h ,  1  investment  in  the trunk system can e v e n t u a l l y have a s t r o n g income e f f e c t , to  be expressed  initially  i n the i n t e n s i t y of a c t i v i t y a t  favoured nodes. F r e i g h t c o s t s may directly.  The  be reduced  truck operator,  and v e h i c l e c o s t s , may  e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n -  e x p e r i e n c i n g lower d r i v e r c o s t s  o f f e r lower r a t e s i n order to a t t r a c t  104 more shipments.  I f he m a i n t a i n s the e a r l i e r charges  after  s i g n i f i c a n t r o a d improvements, thereby i n c r e a s i n g h i s p r o f i t s , then o t h e r o p e r a t o r s might be a t t r a c t e d i n t o the r o u t e , t o f o r c e down f r e i g h t charges.  ( I n B.C., the p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f  e n t r y a r e c o n s t r a i n e d by r e g u l a t i o n s a d m i n i s t e r e d by the P u b l i c U t i l i t i e s Commission). c o m p e t i t i o n with r a i l ,  I f the r o a d improvements enable  water, o r a i r s e r v i c e s which p r e v i o u s l y  enjoyed a monopoly s i t u a t i o n , then f r e i g h t r a t e s w i l l tend t o decrease,  depending on the nature o f goods b e i n g t r a n s p o r t e d . One l o o k s a t the trunk system f o r i t s t o t a l  effect  on p o p u l a t i o n and economic a c t i v i t y a t o r about a node.  Con-  n e c t i o n o r improvement w i l l a f f e c t almost a l l a c t i v i t i e s a t a p l a c e , some s u b s t a n t i a l l y , some t o a n e g l i g i b l e degree.  This  i s i n c o n t r a s t t o improvement i n a branch road, which u s u a l l y a f f e c t s o n l y a segment o f the road-user p o p u l a t i o n about a node, so t h a t the income e f f e c t o f reduced t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s i s r e f l e c t e d i n o n l y some o f the a c t i v i t i e s i n o r about a node. F i n a l l y , t o u r i s t t r a f f i c , which g r e a t l y i n f l u e n c e s some a c t i v i t i e s and some d e c i s i o n s t o i n v e s t i n v a r i o u s subr e g i o n s , i s perhaps more s t r o n g l y a f f e c t e d by trunk than by branch development i n B.C., (assuming  equal a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f  s u b - r e g i o n s ) , because o f the l a r g e d i s t a n c e s to be t r a v e l l e d to parks and areas o f i n t e r e s t and r e t r e a t .  T o u r i s t s probably  p r e f e r w e l l - d e v e l o p e d trunks t o reach the favoured areas, and then r e l a t i v e l y undeveloped sense o f escape,  branches t o m a i n t a i n the d e s i r e d  o r i g i n a l i t y , wilderness, or seclusion.  So f o r t h e i r g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e on p r o v i n c i a l and r e g i o n a l development, f o r t h e i r g r e a t e r e f f e c t on l o c a t i o n a l  105 advantage, s o c i a l i n t e g r a t i o n , o v e r a l l f r e i g h t c o s t s , t o u r i s t s and the m a j o r i t y o f r o a d u s e r s , the trunk roads are f o r more d e t a i l e d  5.3  separated  description.  BUILD-UP OF THE TRUNK NETWORK In  the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s , the p r o v i n c i a l r o a d system  i s reduced t o the trunk r o u t e s o f the I n t e r i o r  (north and east  of Hope), p l u s the Trans-Canada Highway from Vancouver t o Hope. T h i s i s done f o r s i m p l i c i t y and convenience  - the Vancouver  •node* sprawls f a r about the l i n k a s s i g n e d t o i t j the  ferry  s e r v i c e s and the p o s s i b l e i n t e r - u r b a n r o u t e s or sub-urban roads s u p p l i e d by the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , confuse the r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment  and t r a f f i c  flow.  A l s o , the  between l o c a l t r a f f i c and i n t e r - u r b a n t r a f f i c  distinction  is relatively  vague i n the Lower Mainland and southern Vancouver I s l a n d . T h i s e x c l u s i o n does not g r e a t l y a f f e c t the main i s s u e o f the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s , which i s the r e l a t i o n between and i n t e r - u r b a n t r a f f i c , p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u c k s .  investment  The  intention  i s t o s e t a stage f o r comparison o f r o a d improvement and t r u c k - r e l a t e d economic a c t i v i t i e s . Between 1 9 6 k  and 1971•  the t o t a l amount spent on the  l i m i t e d trunk on surveys, r i g h t - o f - w a y , c o n s t r u c t i o n , s u r f a c i n g and improvements ( e x c l u d i n g maintenance, snow-clearing p a t r o l s ) was investment  approximately $ 7 7 0 m i l l i o n .  F i g u r e 16  and  shows the  a c c o r d i n g t o the p e r i o d i n which each l i n k had i t s  "major" a l l o c a t i o n - "major" b e i n g l o o s e l y d e f i n e d as more than o n e - t h i r d o f the t o t a l o c c u r r i n g i n one p e r i o d .  Most l i n k s  Fig 16. Development of the Trunk Network, by Period, (link indicates a period of "major" investment)  •costs here not exactly true, because of simplification of network structure; Vernon-Kamloops link is really Vernon-Monte Cr.; and Merritt-Lytton is really Merritt-Spences Bridge.  Mann Bridge  Fig 17. Total Cost of Links in the Trunk System 1946-71 $ million (surveys, right-of-way, construction, paving, improving).  ,16  r  224.  L48  158,  1131  T76  272 30  275  190  171  1181  167  59  92  29  571  '2866 Pt. Mann  695  <98  120 95  95  Fig 18. Cost per mile, for Trunk Links 1946-71  $'000  109 appear more than once, as the i n t e n s i v e a c t i v i t y extends  over  from one time p e r i o d t o another, or i s r e p e a t e d i n another form i n a l a t e r p e r i o d . The p i c t u r e i s c o m p l i c a t e d by the f a c i l i t i e s b e f o r e 19 6, k  and does not imply t h a t a l l l i n k s were of equal  c a p a c i t y and c o n d i t i o n a t t h a t date.  There i s an obvious  emphasis on the Southern T r a n s p r o v i n c i a l i n the f i r s t (there was  existing  no Trans-Canada  period  a t t h a t t i m e ) , d i s p l a c e d i n the  second p e r i o d by development i n the southern I n t e r i o r . t h i r d p e r i o d shows a d i v e r s i t y o f a c t i v i t y , dominated Trans-Canada.  The by the  The f i n a l p e r i o d shows a s h i f t t o the North  C e n t r a l and Northern  Interior.  F i g u r e 1? shows the development o f the trunk system a c c o r d i n g t o the c o s t of l i n k s , and r e f l e c t s the enormous o b s t a c l e s i n c o n n e c t i n g c e r t a i n nodes.  More was  spent between  H a z e l t o n and T e r r a c e than i n a l l the Okanagan trunk mileage. The Yellowhead and North Thompson r o u t e s stand out as tremendous commitments, o f the o r d e r o f the Rogers Pass o r F r a s e r Canyon l i n k s , but with a p p a r e n t l y l e s s  j u s t i f i c a t i o n or urgency.  Connections t o and between towns i n the West Kootenay have been n o t i c e a b l y expensive, mainly because  district  o f the c o s t o f  b r i d g e s and o f g a i n i n g enough width a l o n g the c o n f i n e d r i v e r valleys. F i g u r e 18 shows the per m i l e c o s t o f l i n k s i n the trunk system.  The d i s t r i b u t i o n emphasizes the importance  the Trans-Canada  Highway, and g e n e r a l l y shows up the  of d i f f i c u l t t e r r a i n and r i v e r b a r r i e r s  of  effects  - Salmo-Creston,  Nelson-  K i n n a i r d , H a z e l t o n t o P r i n c e Rupert and K i t i m a t , Hope t o Cache  110 Creek.  Two-thirds  o f the l i n k s have c o s t l e s s than $200,000  per m i l e , and most o f the o t h e r s are to do w i t h the Canada, which was  Trans-  b u i l t to a h i g h e r standard o f d e s i g n .  per m i l e c o s t i s an average f i g u r e f o r a l i n k t  This  t h e r e are  p a r t s o f l i n k s having c o s t s f a r above o r f a r below the  average,  and a f i n e r p i c t u r e of the i n c i d e n c e of c o s t s c o u l d have been presented from the f i n a n c i a l accounts  o f the Annual Reports.  The f i g u r e s are put t o g e t h e r i n t h i s form ( F i g u r e s 16, because o f the concern o f t h i s study w i t h investment  17,  18)  and  t r a f f i c between p a i r s o f nodes and a l o n g major r o u t e s . One  i s tempted t o a s c r i b e a l l the d i s p a r i t i e s i n per  m i l e c o s t s to the occurrence o f b r i d g e s , h i l l y t e r r a i n ,  the  s e v e r i t y o f w i n t e r and drainage requirements,  exis-  tence o f f a c i l i t i e s b e f o r e 1946. to  or to the  It i s virtually  impossible  apply a f a c t o r r e p r e s e n t i n g the degree o f d i f f i c u l t y  a f f o r d e d by t e r r a i n or c l i m a t e . g r a d i e n t s , do not t e l l the f u l l  R i s e and f a l l ,  or  percentage  s t o r y , f o r there i s a d i f f e r e n t  s o l u t i o n o f curves, grades, r o c k removal, c u l v e r t  filling,  c l e a r i n g , s h o u l d e r i n g , g r a v e l supply and g r a v e l c r u s h i n g f o r each s i t u a t i o n .  Survey and d e s i g n c o s t s v a r y from p l a c e to  p l a c e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i f b r i d g e s are i n v o l v e d .  Right-of-way  c o s t s become s i g n i f i c a n t i n urban r o a d developments.  Infla-  t i o n o f c o n t r a c t p r i c e s has h i t harder on some l i n k s than others.  Standards  of c o n s t r u c t i o n are themselves a v a r i a b l e  f a c t o r , depending mainly of  on  on expected  traffic,  projected l i f e  f a c i l i t i e s , d e s i r a b l e l e v e l o f s e r v i c e , and funds  available.  There a r e , however, cases where the g r e a t e r per m i l e  Ill investment  has been i n response  t o c u r r e n t or expected  traffic  volumes.  The 401 r o u t e from Vancouver to Rosedale i s the most  obvious}  expensive  a d d i t i o n s o f p a s s i n g l a n e s from Hope t o  Cache Creek, Salmon Arm  t o Sicamous, P r i n c e George to Tete  Jaune Cache, and from Hope to P r i n c e t o n are a l s o d e t a i l e d i n the accounts.  Widening o f the highway from Kelowna to n o r t h  of Vernon, the a l t e r n a t e e n t r y from the south i n t o P r i n c e George, the i n t e r c h a n g e s a t C a s t l e g a r , the overhead b r i d g e s a t V a l l e y v i e w , and the replacement  o f f e r r i e s , are a l l examples  o f c o s t l y a d d i t i o n s to highway c a p a c i t y . passes  Breaching o f the  can be regarded as i n t e g r a t i o n or as a d d i t i o n s t o capa-  c i t y o f the system - Creston-Salmo, the No. n e c t i o n n o r t h from Rossland,  3 B to No.  3 con-  the R i c h t e r Pass, and the Cranbrook-  Wasa a l t e r n a t e . There are cases where the h i g h expenditures are to s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t s or t o longer-term p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s . e l e c t r i c development has r e q u i r e d much road investment  due Hydro-  on the  Vernon-South S l o c a n l i n k , and on the Chetwynd-Hudson's HopeF o r t S t . John l i n k .  The T e r r a c e - K i t i m a t l i n k was  constructed  i n support of the s m e l t i n g a c t i v i t y , while the extensions t o the border from Yahk and E l k o presumably are designed t o h e l p a t t r a c t more t o u r i s t s . the expenditure  T h i s i s p a r t o f the m o t i v a t i o n behind  on the Yellowhead and North Thompson highways,  which are perhaps a l s o i n t e n d e d to i n c r e a s e i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h s e t t l e m e n t s i n the P r a i r i e P r o v i n c e s , and to i n c r e a s e the market range o f producers particularly.  a t Vancouver, P r i n c e George and P r i n c e Rupert  112 I n the b u i l d - u p of the  trunk network, t h e r e have  been d i f f e r e n t p r i o r i t i e s a t work, some of these becoming v i s i b l e i n the  s i z e of a l l o c a t i o n s  t a t i o n of f i g u r e s world f a c t s t h a t the nodes are capability,  i n abstract strongly  one  than the  But  influence  the  allocations.  might expect more c o s t l y  a g r e a t e r f a c t o r i n the  s i z e of i t s a l l o c a t i o n  c h a r a c t e r of the nodes which i t connects. allocations  have been p o s s i b l e  t r a f f i c and  An  around the  Lower standards alignment  o t h e r nodes,  through r o u t e s .  NODE ACTIVITY  important q u e s t i o n thus a r i s e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y from  - g i v e n the v a r i a b i l i t y of a l l o c a t i o n s ,  strong influence  to l i n k s and  the  a t the nodes?  and  given  of through-path development, can  c o n n e c t i o n be made between the  f i c u l t y and  with  h i g h e r standards have been " f o r c e d "  importance o f the  LINK INVESTidBNT AND  Compare,  to r a d i a l s from M e r r i t t ,  about M e r r i t t ;  p a r t i c u l a r l y Salmon Arm,  the  facilities  c e n t r e s , a l l other c o n d i t i o n s  of c o n s t r u c t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y i n curves, width and  F i g u r e 18  Firstly,  traffic-generating  those from Creston, or Radium, or Salmon Arm.  5A  presen-  Secondly, e x i s t e n c e of a l i n k i n a major path ,.  f o r example, the  by the  the  graph form conceals some r e a l  to be p r o v i d e d between l a r g e r  tends to be  link.  o f v a s t l y d i f f e r i n g s i z e and  so t h a t  being equal.  per  relative dollar  allocations  r e l a t i v e importance or i n t e n s i t y o f  In o t h e r words, i s the  distance i n t r a v e l r e l a t e d  r e s u l t i n g degree of a c t i v i t y a t nodes?  any  activity  c o s t of overcoming d i f consistently  to  the  113 I n an i s o l a t e d s i t u a t i o n , w i t h equal d i f f i c u l t y road c o n s t r u c t i o n , a much l a r g e r  investment i n one  w i l l p r o v i d e b e t t e r f a c i l i t i e s f o r one in a different direction. c o s t s o f t r a v e l on one nodes are  Assuming t h a t the  more t r a f f i c w i l l flow to the  i n a g e n e r a l way,  However, i f the  to the  the  surrounding  attractiveness,  favoured d i r e c t i o n .  t i n g ehanges i n economic a c t i v i t y and  tions.  l i n k than f o r another  o f equal s i z e , complexity and  relatable,  direction  This w i l l lessen, r e l a t i v e l y  side.  of  The  then resul-  node importance are  relative dollar  existing attraction  then  alloca-  of nodes i s  un-  equal, then a b e t t e r c o n n e c t i o n from a minor to a major node may  a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t a c t i v i t y a t the  the market range o f the node, whose l i n k has because o f the  larger*s  minor node, by  activities.  such a case, there i s no dollar allocations  Another minor  o n l y a s m a l l a l l o c a t i o n , may  p r o t e c t i o n of d i s t a n c e and clear  increasing  survive  travel costs.  In  c o n n e c t i o n between r e l a t i v e  to l i n k s and  r e l a t i v e importance of node  activity. F u r t h e r , a s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t o f the benefit node.  u s e r s i n a g e n e r a l way The  comfort and  l a n d s c a p i n g , c l e a r and  not  relatable  t r a v e l , the making one  to any  particular  amenity a s p e c t s , such as wide s h o u l d e r s , f r e q u e n t s i g n s , and  p l a c e s , w i l l probably have v e r y l i t t l e behaviour between any  a l l o c a t i o n might  two  nodes.  For  roadside stopping  i n f l u e n c e on long-distance  users* recreational  investment might have some d i r e c t i o n a l e f f e c t s , a r e a more a t t r a c t i v e  to t o u r i s t s than another.  R e d u c t i o n of hazard and a v i r t u e b e l o n g i n g to the  in  accidents, also,  seems to  whole system, or to a major p a t h .  be  114 C e r t a i n l y the g r e a t e r i n c i d e n c e of the r e d u c t i o n w i l l be  felt  i n i t i a l l y by u s e r s from nodes a t the end of an a d j u s t e d  link,  because they are more l i k e l y than t o u r i s t s , more l i k e l y  than  bus in es s t r a v e l l e r s from elsewhere, t o make more t r i p s the l i n k .  However, t h i s assumes t h a t t h e r e i s equal  along  probabi-  l i t y o f a c c i d e n t o r damage f o r each v e h i c l e on the l i n k a t  any  time, which i s u n r e a l i s t i c i n the ease o f h a b i t u a l u s e r s .  It  would be i n t e r e s t i n g t o know o f the p a t t e r n of a c c i d e n t s on a trunk l i n k , whether there i s a h i g h e r r a t i o o f t r i p s to i n v o l v e ment f o r l o c a l r e s i d e n t s than f o r t o u r i s t s and t r a v e l l e r s , g i v e n the same t r a f f i c  conditions.  T h i s concern f o r the i n c i d e n c e of a c c i d e n t might seem l i k e quibbling» ely costly.  I n the U.S.,  but,  costs  i n f a c t , a c c i d e n t s are extrem-  t h e i r " c o s t approaches ... the amount  spent y e a r l y on highway c o n s t r u c t i o n and maintenance. a c c i d e n t s may  f  Traffic  c o n t r o l the u l t i m a t e answer of the economic 2  value  ... o f a p r o p o s a l " . A p a r t from the d i s p o s i t i o n o f the a l l o c a t e d funds,  there i s a l s o the problem o f the nature nected.  con-  Some nodes w i l l respond t o l i n k improvement immediately  - e s p e c i a l l y those w i t h products those with a c t i v i t i e s now and those  o f nodes b e i n g  dependent on t r u c k t r a n s p o r t ,  able to reach a. c e r t a i n t h r e s h o l d ,  s u f f i c i e n t l y d i s t a n t from l a r g e r competing c e n t r e s .  For o t h e r nodes, the response may  be g r a d u a l and  protracted.  I n some cases, a s u p p o r t i n g change or investment may to enable a node to respond a t a l l t o the new wood, i n B.C.,  has not been a b l e to t r a p any  be r e q u i r e d  potential.  Green-  o f the p o t e n t i a l  115 for  development p r o v i d e d by the improved highway;  Armstrong  and O l i v e r have perhaps l o s t something because o f improvements on l i n k s t o Vernon and Osoyoos. Another stumbling b l o c k t o the correspondence o f the  s i z e o f a l l o c a t i o n s w i t h a c t i v i t y a t nodes, i s the p o s i -  t i o n o f a l i n k added t o the network difficulty  has been mentioned e a r l i e r ,  of major p a t h s . to  (Burton, 1962).  concerning the e f f e c t  I t needs to be emphasized t h a t a l l o c a t i o n s  l i n k up sub-systems o f the network may  degree o f improvement  achieve a l a r g e ;  f o r the whole system ( i f o n l y i n a b s t r a c t  terms o f c o n n e c t i v i t y r a t h e r t h a n i n terms o f t r a f f i c That improvement  This  flow).  may not rebound t o the b e n e f i t o f the end-  p o i n t nodes, s i n c e t r a f f i c may  simply pass through t o l a r g e r  nodes t h a t were f o r m e r l y a t t a i n a b l e by a more c i r c u i t o u s r o u t e . The l i n k from South S l o c a n to Vernon has a g r e a t e f f e c t on the t o t a l i t y o f the network;  the Chetwynd - F o r t S t . John l i n k  has a v e r y s m a l l e f f e c t .  P r o v i s i o n o f a l i n k from Revelstoke  or  Golden through to Tete Jaune, would have an i n t e r m e d i a t e  e f f e c t on c o n n e c t i v i t y and t r a f f i c f l o w .  A g r e a t e r e f f e c t on  t r a f f i c flow, but not on c o n n e c t i v i t y , would r e s u l t from the p r o v i s i o n o f a Vancouver - Squamish - C l i n t o n trunk l i n k . These examples are suggested i n order to i l l u s t r a t e the v e r y d i f f e r e n t p o s s i b l e outcomes o f l i n k a d d i t i o n , r e g a r d l e s s o f d o l l a r amounts, because o f the sub-systems and p a i r s o f nodes b e i n g connected. F i n a l l y , i t i s p o s s i b l e to have i n c r e a s e d flows on an unchanged road system, simply because o f node a c t i v i t y h a v i n g been s t i m u l a t e d by development r e l a t e d t o other modes o f  116 transport.  P r i n c e George, and the Peace R i v e r o i l and  gas  development, are examples o f such a change. The  c o n c l u s i o n must he t h a t to r e l a t e expected  i n a c t i v i t y t o the funds a v a i l a b l e f o r adding,  change  or improving,  l i n k , i s a poor b a s i s f o r p l a n n i n g and decision-making.  a  Yet  when budget a l l o c a t i o n s are d i s c u s s e d , and r e c o r d s o f p r o g r e s s a d v e r t i s e d , the d o l l a r amounts are emphasized - a way ing  of  t h a t $10 m i l l i o n spent here and $10 m i l l i o n spent  imply-  there  are j u s t the same i n u t i l i t y or w e l f a r e f o r the P r o v i n c e .  The  d i s t r i b u t i o n f a c t o r and the time f a c t o r a r e o f t e n i g n o r e d ,  as  they were i n many p r o j e c t developments i n the T h i r d World, (Wilson e t . a l . , 1 9 6 6 ) ,  The g r e a t e r i n t e n s i t y o f a c t i v i t y  t r a f f i c f l o w i n developed  and  economies p r o b a b l y conceals m i s a l l o -  c a t i o n or u n d e r - u t i l i s a t i o n ( i f they do occur) by more r a p i d adjustment, r e l o c a t i o n , and r e - r o u t i n g . To g a i n a g e n e r a l i m p r e s s i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p d i s c u s s e d above, t o t a l d o l l a r s spent on l i n k s from 1 9 6 k  were r e l a t e d to percentage 1971  change i n t r a f f i c f l o w from 1 9 5  i n a simple r e g r e s s i o n t e s t .  not a v a i l a b l e b e f o r e 1 9 5 3 - 5 . k  The  1971  to k  "to  Comparable s t a t i s t i c s are I n c l u s i o n of spending  before  t h a t date i s to b r i n g i n t o the r e l a t i o n s h i p some v i t a l i n v e s t ments which probably had an e f f e c t on t r a f f i c flow i n the  mid  1950's, but which were begun i n the l a t e 1 9 0 ' s - p a r t i c u l a r l y k  on the Southern T r a n s p r o v i n e i a l and John Hart Highways.  Twenty-  seven l i n k s were chosen, to t r y t o r e p r e s e n t t r a f f i c p a t t e r n s , without b e i n g too r e p e t i t i v e - s i x out of the nine on the Trans-Canada r o u t e j Transprovineialj  seven o f the s i x t e e n o f the  Southern  three out o f nine s e r v i n g the Okanagan a r e a ;  117 two  on the Cariboo Highway, two  on the North Thompson, two  in  the Peace R i v e r area, two between P r i n c e Rupert and P r i n c e George, p l u s Merritt-Kamloops attempt was  and Vernon-South S l o c a n .  No  made to i n d i c a t e the nature o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p -  the investment  c o u l d be a response  t o l o c a l demand f o r move-  ment, or c o u l d i n i t i a t e or s t i m u l a t e i t . TABLE IX RELATIONSHIP OF DOLLAR ALLOCATIONS AND SELECTED LINKS T r a f f i c Flow r e l a t e d tot  T o t a l Spending ($m) on 27 l i n k s 1946-71  FLOWS, ON  Spending per m i l e ( $ 0 0 0 ) on 27 l i n k s 1946-71  r  +.37  +.36  exponent  9.75  .90  431.2  constant  389.4  From the p r e v i o u s d i s c u s s i o n , the d i r e c t i o n weakness o f the c o r r e l a t i o n i n Table IX are to be Stronger c o r r e l a t i o n was  and  expected.  found on the Trans-Canada and  Okanagan  l i n k s taken together, than on those i n n o r t h e r n d i s t r i c t s together;  which suggest, perhaps, t h a t the c o r r e l a t i o n  i n f l u e n c e d by e x i s t e n c e of important  5.5  was  through paths, a h i g h e r  c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f urban settlement, and by f a c i l i t i e s been p r o v i d e d b e f o r e  taken  having  1946.  NETWORK IMPROVEMENT FROM THE ALLOCATIONS The  B.C.  road system does not l e n d i t s e l f w e l l t o  the p u r e l y s t r u c t u r a l measures o f networks, as used by G a r r i s o n et a l . ( 1 9 6 5 ) ,  Garrison ( i 9 6 0 ) ,  and Burton  (1962).  Because o f  118 the wide v a r i a t i o n i n l e n g t h o f l i n k s as presented i n t h i s study, a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n d i c e s d e r i v e d from the c o u n t i n g and s c a l i n g o f l i n k s g i v e some nonsense  answers.  F o r example, the  170-mile l i n k from P r i n c e George t o Tete Jaune Cache i s counted the same as the 9 m i l e s from Kaleden t o P e n t i c t o n j  the  devious South Slocan-Vernon l i n k i s counted the same as the d i r e c t Vernon-Kelowna l i n k .  A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s s e t o f l i n k s and  nodes, the minimum path from C a l g a r y t o Kamloops would take a route through Tete Jaune.  The a d d i t i o n o f a new l i n k (say,  Cascade t o K i n n a i r d and Rossland, o r Cranbrook t o F o r t S t e e l e to Wasa) can add t o minimum paths by r e q u i r i n g the i n c l u s i o n o f i n t e r s e c t i o n nodes.  On the o t h e r hand, a d d i t i o n o f a l i n k  can reduce minimum paths by a l l o w i n g r o u t e s t o by-pass some nodes, as has happened w i t h the R i c h t e r Pass, the Salmo-Creston Highway, and the Nelson-Vernon highway.  T h i s p a r t i c u l a r pro-  blem o f measurement and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n was mentioned by Kansky (I963,  p. 128), who changed from t o p o l o g i c a l t o m e t r i c a l v a l u e s  when d e s c r i b i n g the g e n e r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f d i s p e r s i o n , a c c e s s i b i l i t y and c i r c u i t y . Nor a r e the t o p o l o g i c a l i n d i c e s which Kansky o f f e r e d (I963,  p. 10-28) p a r t i c u l a r l y meaningful i n d e s c r i b i n g change  i n the B.C. network s i n c e 1 9 5 2 .  The measures o f c o n n e c t i v i t y ,  d e n s i t y , edge l e n g t h and node weights, a r e more u s e f u l f o r comparing  change i n one network w i t h change i n another  I t means l i t t l e  t o measure the degree o f c o n n e c t i v i t y f o r the  B.C. trunk network as having changed the p e r i o d .  network.  from 8 . 5 % t o 9 . 5 % over  H i s E t a , P i , and Theta i n d i c e s , which g e n e r a l l y  119  decrease as networks and economies develop, may i n c r e a s e d i n the case o f B.C., three p a r t i c u l a r l i n k s .  because  i n f a c t have  o f the a d d i t i o n o f  The I o t a i n d e x w i l l t e l l  just  something  of  the i n t e n s i t y of use of the network ( m i l e s d i v i d e d by nodes times a t r a f f i c flow or p o p u l a t i o n f a c t o r ) , but t h i s i s not n e c e s s a r i l y r e l a t e d to d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s , as was the p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n .  discussed i n  For i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n i s not r e a l l y the  s t o r y o f development i n the B.C.  r o a d system - the s e t o f  nodes has been h e l d amost constant, and o n l y 9 l i n k s have been added.  A d m i t t e d l y , three of these have caused  significant  s t r u c t u r a l changes (Yellowhead, North Thompson, S l o c a n links)« still,  the l a r g e r r e s u l t o f investment has been an improvement  o f the l i n k s o f a q u i t e s t a b l e system, r a t h e r than a profound s t r u c t u r a l change. More meaningful f i g u r e s o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y a c c o r d i n g to s t r u c t u r e are found i f the paths are f o r c e d t o f o l l o w r e a l i s t i c r o u t e s - t h a t i s , some sense o f v a l u e informs the s e l e c t i o n of paths.  As an i n d i c a t i o n o n l y , of the s t r u c t u r a l e f f e c t o f  adding new  l i n k s , the paths from f o u r p e r i p h e r a l and two  central  nodes to a l l other nodes have been counted, the r o u t e s o f which were s e l e c t e d on the b a s i s o f what seemed l i k e l y w i t h the p r e v i o u s , and c u r r e n t , road c o n d i t i o n s ,  (Table X ) .  The S l o c a n l i n k  b r i n g s the g r e a t e s t amount o f s t r u c t u r a l change because i t c r o s s e s between sub-systems,  from the C e n t r a l  Interior-North  Okanagan, t o the Kootenay d i s t r i c t .  Both these d i s t r i c t s have  a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h d e n s i t y of nodes.  I f a l l node s c o r e s were  c a l c u l a t e d i n t h i s f a s h i o n , the apparent importance  o f the  S l o c a n l i n k would grow i n c r e a s i n g l y l a r g e r , as the c l u s t e r s o f  o CM  H  TABLE X EXAMPLE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE RESULTING FROM LINK ADDITION  Node  Links to A l l Nodes 1952  Vancouver  519  510  519  519  510  504  2.9  Kamloops  399  392  293  399  286  283  29.I  Ft.MacLeod  699  699  625  533  459  443  36.6  Ros.-Trail  526  524  402  526  400  384  27.0  Edmonton  417  364  417  405  352  339  18.7  Pr.Rupert  815  8I3  753  775  711  681  16.4  3375  3302  3009  3157  2718  2634  22.0  2.2  10.8  19.5  22.0  Total  Reduction 1952-71  1971 i n c l . N.Thompson Only  1971 i n e l . Slocan Only  1971 i n c l . Yellowhead Only  6.5'  1971 i n c l . all three  1971 i n c l . % a l l new Reduction links 1952-71  121 nodes r e p e a t the advantageous change i n r o u t i n g .  This scale  of importance bears no r e l a t i o n t o the s c a l e o f a l l o c a t i o n s over the p e r i o d - f o r example, $14 m i l l i o n was spent on the S l o c a n l i n k , $ 5 1 m i l l i o n on the Yellowhead, and $40 m i l l i o n on the North Thompson. Nor does the l i n k importance measure  (Kissling,  p. 117) p r o v i d e any b e t t e r account o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p investment a l l o c a t i o n s and c o n t r i b u t i o n s to network  1969,  between  structure.  The measure counts each time a l i n k o c c u r s i n the minimum s t r u c t u r a l paths between a l l p a i r s o f nodes.  I n the 1952  net-  work, the most important l i n k s were Cache C r e e k - C l i n t o n , Cache Creek-Kamloops, and Osoyoos-Kaleden.^  In the 1971 network, the  f i r s t two m a i n t a i n t h e i r predominance, but the R i c h t e r Pass and S l o c a n l i n k s have taken the " p r e s s u r e " o f f the Okanagan r o u t e , while the Rogers Pass a d d i t i o n g i v e s a boost to the "use" o f the Sicamous-Revelstoke l i n k . s t r u c t u r a l measures only;  "Pressure" and "use" r e f e r t o  but they a l s o show a very weak  correspondence w i t h the s i z e o f investments as p r e s e n t e d i n P i g . 17 and F i g . 18.  The l i n k b e i n g a f f e c t e d  structurally  might not be the one r e c e i v i n g the a l l o c a t i o n .  5.6  MEASUREMENT OF NETWORK CHANGE The p o i n t has been c l e a r l y made, t h a t  structural  change and d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s do not have a c o n s i s t e n t nor meaningful r e l a t i o n s h i p .  S t r u c t u r a l measures are a somewhat  deceptive d e s c r i p t i o n o f network development.  Kansky  "tied"  s t r u c t u r e t o economic development, and Burton used s t r u c t u r a l  122 change as a p r e l i m i n a r y method f o r highway p l a n n i n g  -  the  i m p l i c a t i o n o f both being t h a t economic development and i n vestment i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ought to b r i n g s t r u c t u r a l changes o f a c e r t a i n type and order The  i n the network and  g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s seem t o ignore  i t s parts.  the f a c t t h a t a  resource-  e x p l o i t i n g economy might r e q u i r e a hub-and-spoke s t r u c t u r e , not g r e a t l y i n t e r c o n n e c t e d ,  w h i l e a uniform farming or s p e c i -  a l i z e d manufacturing economy might r e q u i r e a s t r u c t u r e having g r e a t e r c o n n e c t i v i t y . B.C.  The  pyramid-lattice examples from  the  experience show t h a t without w e i g h t i n g the nodes, without  v a l u i n g the l i n k s , and without a s s e s s i n g the r e a l - w o r l d provided  by an a l l o c a t i o n , the measures o f s t r u c t u r e  v i r t u a l l y useless f o r planning  and  often confusing  gain  are  f o r des-  cription. The  d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s have to be passed through a  medium o f "improvement bought" before response a t the nodes. i n t e n t i o n a l l y and  A l l o c a t i o n s to the v a r i o u s l i n k s  are  i n e v i t a b l y unequal - an a l l o c a t i o n r e l a t e d  only to e x i s t i n g t r a f f i c  demand and  r e i n f o r c e e x i s t i n g patterns ignore  they can be r e l a t e d to  to m i l e s of d i s t a n c e , would  of movement and a c t i v i t y , and  the r e a l - w o r l d c o s t s of c o n s t r u c t i o n .  The  degree o f  improvement can be measured i n a number o f ways, r e l a t i n g s p e c i f i c l i n k s and nodes or to the t o t a l network, and w i l l be a p p l i e d i n the f o l l o w i n g  chapters.  would  to  these  123  REFERENCES j 1 T r a n s p o r t Routes i n the Economic Development of Northern B.C., (1956), Bureau of Economics & S t a t i s t i c s . V i c t o r i a . E s t i m a t e d o p e r a t i n g revenues o f i n t e r - c i t y c a r r i e r s i n 1970 was $195 m i l l i o n , about the same as t o t a l farm cash r e c e i p t s . In 1971, $127 m i l l i o n o f new commercial v e h i c l e s were bought. (Sourcet F i n a n c i a l & Economic Review, 1972, Department o f Finance, V i c t o r i a , p. 62). 2 Winfrey and Z e l l n e r quote the U.S. experience (NCHRP Report No. 122, p. 59) - $11 b i l l i o n f o r a c c i d e n t s , $13 b i l l i o n f o r highways per y e a r . Many o f the highways are designed w i t h a c c i d e n t r e d u c t i o n as a major o b j e c t i v e . From an I l l i n o i s study o f 1958, r u r a l a c c i d e n t s accounted f o r 25% and commercial v e h i c l e s " a c c i d e n t s 10% o f the t o t a l (p. 6 0 ) . I n B.C., i n 1970, 28% o f the 7 0 , 0 0 0 a c c i d e n t s were i n r u r a l a r e a s , 10% of a l l v e h i c l e s i n v o l v e d were commercial. ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 53001, Motor V e h i c l e T r a f f i c A c c i d e n t s , 1 9 7 0 ) . 3 Scores taken from c a l c u l a t i o n s prepared mainly f o r Chapter 7 o f t h i s t h e s i s .  CHAPTER 6  EVALUATING IMPROVEMENTS IN LINK CHARACTERISTICS  6.1  INTRODUCTION A c c e s s i b i l i t y i s a p o t e n t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between  a t l e a s t two  locations.  I t i s r e a l i z e d o n l y by users making,  or i n t e n d i n g t o make, t r i p s or c o n t a c t s between p l a c e s . i m p l i e s an element o f c o s t , and K i s s l i n g (1966), 0 ' S u l l i v a n  not  just a physical  It  connection.  (1969) and Wheat (I969) have shown  t h a t r e a l i z a t i o n of the p o t e n t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p i s q u i t e s e n s i t i v e to the c o s t s o f movement and  to the s t r u c t u r e and  o f a c t i v i t i e s a t the v a r i o u s l o c a t i o n s .  T h i s chapter argues  t h a t p a r t o f the e f f e c t o f highway investment on throughout the Province  can be  content  accessibility  seen i n a p a r t i c u l a r c l a s s o f  road user - l a r g e t r u c k s - which r e l a t e s q u i t e c l o s e l y to more b a s i c economic a c t i v i t i e s . investment has  The  improvement bought by  to pass through the medium o f road u s e r s  i t s e f f e c t s can be expressed i n other a c t i v i t i e s . ment o f improvement p r o v i d e s i n road-oriented The  the  The  before measure-  a b a s i s f o r examining responses  a c t i v i t i e s at various l o c a t i o n s .  f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s attempt to j u s t i f y ,  first  l o g i c a l l y , then from e m p i r i c a l evidence, the choice o f a l a r g e t r u c k f o r measuring improvements i n r o a d s . 124  The  great  importance  125 of The  t r u c k i n g a c t i v i t y , e s p e c i a l l y i n B.C.,  w i l l be demonstrated.  content, methods and e m p i r i c a l l y - t e s t e d  relationships  i n v o l v e d i n the s i m u l a t i o n of t r u c k c o s t s i n B.C.,  are  presen-  ted  i n the f o u r t h s e c t i o n o f t h i s chapter, and i n Appendix I I I .  The  f i n a l s e c t i o n p r e s e n t s some o f the output o f the s i m u l a t i o n ,  and o f f e r s some evidence on i t s r e l i a b i l i t y .  I n chapter 7»  the  s i m u l a t e d c o s t s w i l l be used i n a network context, t o show the v a r i a b l e degrees of improvement bought by i n d i v i d u a l l i n k i n vestments.  The  correspondence  o f t r u c k c o s t s and  and of t r u c k c o s t s and t r a f f i c flows w i l l be  investment,  considered.  E s t i m a t e s of a c t u a l savings to l a r g e t r u c k s through road  im-  provements are attempted i n chapter 7 and 8 , the r e a s o n i n g b e i n g t h a t the • s u r p l u s ' has t o be accumulated a t the s e r v i c e f u n c t i o n ( i . e . f r e i g h t o p e r a t i o n s ) b e f o r e s a v i n g s w i l l be passed and cause adjustments i n , other 6.2  on t o ,  activities.  THE CHOICE OF A LARGE TRUCK FOR CHANGES  EVALUATING LINK  C u r r e n t users are the f i r s t b e n e f i c i a r i e s o f road provements:  a new  p o t e n t i a l i n p r o d u c t i o n and consumption i s  p r o v i d e d by the change i n r u n n i n g c o s t , t r a v e l time, s a f e t y and  im-  increased capacity.  S t u d i e s from the U.S.  comfort, show t h a t  commercial v e h i c l e s u s u a l l y g a i n more than p r i v a t e v e h i c l e s .  1  T h i s r e s u l t s from the h i g h e r time c o s t o f commercial v e h i c l e s  2 and d r i v e r s ' wages, i n total cost.  and the g r e a t e r s i g n i f i c a n c e o f these  At 1970  items  p r i c e s , the t o t a l c o s t f o r heavy t r u c k  t r a v e l over 50,000 m i l e s i s about $22,000, o f which f u e l i s  $4,000, r e p a i r s and t y r e s $7,000, and d r i v e r s ' wages and  126 d e p r e c i a t i o n o f equipment about that truck cost reductions  $11,000.^  I t i sunlikely  would ever determine by themselves  the a l l o c a t i o n o f investment, s i n c e commercial v e h i c l e s make up o n l y  20-25$  o f r e g i s t r a t i o n s i n Canada and U.S., many o f  them i n v o l v e d i n urban a c t i v i t y where they a r e g r e a t l y outnumbered by p r i v a t e and commuter v e h i c l e s , o r i n v o l v e d i n r e g i o n a l l y - d i s p e r s e d but l o c a l l y - o r i e n t e d farm a c t i v i t y .  But  t r u c k i n g a c t i v i t y i s a good i n d i c a t o r o f response t o r o a d improvement, as i t i s an e x p r e s s i o n  o f t r a n s p o r t as a d e r i v e d  demand. The than the c a r . facilities.  t r u c k i s more t i e d t o b a s i c economic a c t i v i t y The t r u c k can be regarded as p a r t o f the highway Truck t r a n s p o r t i s p a r t o f the t o t a l  costs f o r a place.  The p r i v a t e ear can be regarded as consumer  o f the highway f a c i l i t i e s ? a t t r i b u t a b l e to a place. the q u e s t i o n  production  of personal  i t i s p a r t o f the f i n a l demand O b s e r v a t i o n o f the p r i v a t e c a r r a i s e s  t r a v e l and r e c r e a t i o n , a h i g h e r  order  and more v a r i a b l e a c t i v i t y , - * n o t so c l o s e l y t i e d t o g e n e r a l economic a c t i v i t y a t a p o i n t . where the amount o f p e r s o n a l  T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e o f B.C., t r a v e l v a r i e s g r e a t l y from season  to season, and probably a l s o i n o r i e n t a t i o n (e.g. r e s i d e n t s t o u r i n g the c e n t r a l and n o r t h e r n  metropolitan  i n t e r i o r , and r e s i -  dents o f r e s o u r c e - e x p l o i t i n g towns t r a v e l l i n g t o warmer and/or urban areas a f t e r a c o n f i n e d Most o f the i n i t i a l  winter). development o f primary  resources  i n B.C. has been r e l a t e d t o r a i l o r water t r a n s p o r t .  However,  f u r t h e r growth o f these urban p l a c e s has been i n h i b i t e d by i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f v a r i o u s k i n d s , a s m a l l l o c a l market, and  127 c o n c e n t r a t i o n on a few v e r y s p e c i a l i z e d f u n c t i o n s . sibility"  can i n c l u d e f a c t o r s o f h i g h c o s t , s e a s o n a l d i s r u p t i o n ,  discomfort, u n r e l i a b i l i t y ,  c i r c u i t o u s r o u t e s and  from major paths i n the system.  i n v i s i t o r or p a s s i n g t r a f f i c  enabled  sub-regions, an i n c r e a s e  (which c o n s t i t u t e s an  o p p o r t u n i t y f o r t e r t i a r y a c t i v i t y , and  r a i l and water t r a n s p o r t .  remoteness  Highway development has  g r e a t e r c o n t a c t with o t h e r towns and  market),  "Inacces-  enlarged  competition with  Competition has not been c o n f i n e d  simply t o i n t e r - u r b a n f r e i g h t charges - d e l i v e r y time, p o i n t - t o p o i n t s e r v i c e , and f l e x i b i l i t y of schedules and r o u t i n g have been important  factors.^  Where the road p r o v i d e s i n i t i a l a c c e s s t o an a r e a , new  economic development may  f o l l o w , depending on r e s o u r c e s ,  r e l a t i v e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s , s u p p o r t i n g a c t i v i t i e s , remoteness from e x i s t i n g supply or p r o d u c t i o n c e n t r e s , and the dynamism i n the economy g e n e r a l l y . ted 19 6 k  Such development would c e r t a i n l y be  i n trucking a c t i v i t y .  But the investment  i n B.C.  reflec-  roads s i n c e  has been l a r g e l y f o r a v a s t improvement o f e x i s t i n g  and f o r connections to a l r e a d y - d e v e l o p i n g a r e a s . f l e c t i o n o f investment as with i n i t i a l a c c e s s i  So the r e -  i n t r u c k i n g a c t i v i t y i s not so i t now  links,  obvious  depends on the degree of improve-  ment bought, t o g e t h e r with the t r a n s p o r t needs of a c t i v i t i e s at  a p l a c e , and w i t h the a b i l i t y o f those a c t i v i t i e s to  to  the n e w ' f i e l d o f p o t e n t i a l ' . ' '  respond  T h i s f i e l d o f p o t e n t i a l r e s u l t s from the p r e s e n t  loca-  t i o n o f u s e r s , t h e i r remoteness, and the shape and c a p a c i t y o f the network.  P a r t l y because o f the importance  of paths  through  the system, and p a r t l y because of the v a r y i n g market s i z e  and  128 range of a c t i v i t i e s , i t i s not simply a p o i n t - t o - p o i n t phenomenon, i . e . the p o t e n t i a l spreads over continuous space  around  favoured l o c a t i o n s , the c o n c e n t r i c ranges o f advantage b e i n g bent towards the through paths to e x p l o i t p a s s i n g flow or make use o f the lower c o s t s o f movement on the generally s u p e r i o r facilities.  The a b i l i t y o f a node or s u b - r e g i o n to  respond  depends, i n g e n e r a l terms, on i t s m a t u r i t y or l e v e l of development.  8  More s p e c i f i c a l l y ,  i t depends on the mix of a c t i v i t i e s ,  9  some of which w i l l be a b l e to t r a p more o f the market, e i t h e r from the f l o w on a path or from areas p r e v i o u s l y served other l o c a t i o n s .  from  Thus, d i s t a n c e from competing c e n t r e s i s a 10  determining f a c t o r i n the response.  Some p l a c e s may  from improved a c c e s s i b i l i t y , but because o f t h e i r  benefit  differing  demands f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , not a l l a c t i v i t i e s a t a p l a c e w i l l respond  i n similar fashion.  The favoured a c t i v i t i e s might en-  l a r g e or improve t h e i r f a c i l i t i e s ,  the investment  being released  by r e d u c t i o n s i n supply or d i s t r i b u t i o n c o s t s ( i n c r e a s e d profits),  o r b e i n g made i n a n t i c i p a t i o n o f reduced t r i p c o s t o f  shoppers  (increased sales).  F o c u s s i n g on t r u c k c o s t s d i s p o s e s  one t o f i n d the f i r s t type o f adjustment, p o t e n t i a l has been trapped.  where some o f the  new  The p l o t t i n g o f t r u c k c o s t savings  l a t e r i n t h i s and the next chapter, w i l l show which p l a c e s and which r o u t e s have been more favoured than o t h e r s , s u g g e s t i n g p l a c e s worth examining  f o r t h e i r economic  response.  But c a u t i o n i s needed i n a f f i r m i n g the s t r e n g t h of the r e l a t i o n s h i p .  Wheat ( I 9 6 9 ) p o s t u l a t e d a c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p  between ' i n t e r s t a t e freeway a c c e s s ' and activity*  i n the U.S.,  ' i n c r e a s e d manufacturing  but found t h a t i t had t o be supported  as  129  w e l l with such f a c t o r s as i n i t i a l s i z e o f c i t i e s and the existence  of a i r services.  Werner ( 1 9 6 8 ) suggested t h a t more  a t t e n t i o n should be p a i d to the e f f i c i e n c y o f networks, and not  just t h e i r s t r u c t u r a l a t t r i b u t e s , i n assessing  response.  economic  I n the same p u b l i c a t i o n , G a u t h i e r took a second  l o o k a t the r o a d system o f Sao Paulo S t a t e  i n B r a z i l , t o add  a c a p a c i t y c o n s t r a i n t t o the i n t e r - u r b a n l i n k s , t o b e t t e r r e f l e c t the r e a l i t y o f p o t e n t i a l use.  In h i s 1970 a r t i c l e ,  G a u t h i e r r e l a x e d even f u r t h e r the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a n s p o r t investment and economic development.  Empirical studies,  e s p e c i a l l y those o f the Brookings I n s t i t u t e s e r i e s , support this tendency.  I n 1 9 5 9 , Z e t t e l was warning t h a t although  1 1  highway investment s e t s up a g r a v i t a t i o n a l p u l l f o r some p l a c e s , and  s t a r t s a c h a i n r e a c t i o n , the t i m i n g and d i r e c t i o n o f t h a t  r e a c t i o n cannot be c l o s e l y mapped. use and i n c i d e n c e o f b e n e f i t . goes i n t o l o w e r i n g  The d i f f i c u l t y i s i n the  Some p a r t o f highway b e n e f i t  d i s t r i b u t i o n and p r o d u c t i o n  might be passed on as lower f i n a l p r i c e s .  c o s t s , which  Assuming an e l a s t i c  demand f o r goods and s e r v i c e s , t o t a l demand w i l l then i n c r e a s e , thus g e n e r a t i n g  more a c t i v i t y .  But a l a r g e p a r t o f the h i g h -  way b e n e f i t does not r e l e a s e income nor p r o v i d e d u c t i o n - i t i s contained  i n personal  f o r added pro-  time, convenience and  comfort, which can be a t t r i b u t e d almost t o t a l l y t o p r i v a t e c a r s . The  underlying  i m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t highway investment and  change i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s w i l l induce some growth. (1971)  Wills  showed t h a t i n B.C., economic growth measured by l i q u o r  s a l e s a t nodes was g e n e r a l l y w e l l i n advance o f changes i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y - a r e f l e c t i o n o f the resource-based  activities  130 r e l y i n g on r a i l and water t r a n s p o r t .  The h i g h e r o r d e r a c t i -  v i t i e s w i l l be more c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o r o a d development, f o r they r e q u i r e more f r e q u e n t and more f l e x i b l e movement o f people and goods than i s o f f e r e d by o t h e r modes.  Increasing  i n t e g r a t i o n o f the p r o v i n c i a l economy w i l l e n t a i l more use o f v a r i a b l e r o u t i n g , i . e . t r u c k s , than the more c o n f i n e d and centralized r a i l routes.  Expansion  o f market range o f some  c e n t r e s o f the I n t e r i o r w i l l be p e r m i t t e d o r c o n s t r a i n e d by r o a d c o n d i t i o n s and running c o s t s r a t h e r than by r a i l  service.  Lower f r e i g h t charges w i l l a f f e c t o n l y some a c t i v i ties.  Reductions  i n factor costs of resource-processing i n -  d u s t r i e s w i l l g e n e r a l l y be o f minor importance,  although some  b e n e f i t w i l l accrue t o q u a r r y i n g and l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s t h a t can use highways r a t h e r than t r a i l s ;  and some p r o d u c t i o n  c e n t r e s , such as C a s s i a r , would probably respond t o b e t t e r road connections.  Primary producers w i l l probably  benefit,  e i t h e r by i n c r e a s i n g s a l e s over a wider market, o r by lower d i s t r i b u t i o n c o s t s which w i l l a l l o w them i n c r e a s e d economies of  s c a l e , h i g h e r p r o f i t s , or t o compete i n p r i c e w i t h  producers  from other areas - f o r example, Cariboo beef with A l b e r t a beef, or  Okanagan f r u i t with imported  t i o n s are affected? reduce  fruit.  But which urban func-  R e t a i l e r s w i l l g e n e r a l l y be a b l e t o  t h e i r p r i c e s o r i n c r e a s e t h e i r v a r i e t y o f stock, t h e r e -  by a t t r a c t i n g a wider market i f t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t of  demand f o r t h e i r goods.  elasticity  Thus they might capture p a r t o f  the market o f o t h e r c e n t r e s .  Wholesalers might be a b l e t o  reduce t h e i r stock, because o f i n c r e a s e d r e l i a b i l i t y and speed of  service?  some might even be f o r c e d out by w h o l e s a l e r s a t  131 larger centres.  T h i s has o c c u r r e d w i t h r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f  g a s o l i n e and m i l k d i s t r i b u t i o n .  Commercial a c t i v i t y s e r v i n g  people and b u s i n e s s e s w i l l show l i t t l e response  to freight  c o s t r e d u c t i o n s , f o r i t i s e s s e n t i a l l y market-oriented,  being  a f f e c t e d more by the p r e v a i l i n g c o s t and frequency o f p r i v a t e t r i p s and by the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f a l t e r n a t i v e  communication.  So the r e l a t i o n between t r u c k c o s t r e d u c t i o n s and economic a c t i v i t y must be l i m i t e d i n g e n e r a l t o a s e t o f a c t i v i t i e s , o c c u r r i n g i n p l a c e s having a c e r t a i n remoteness from competing p l a c e s .  T r a c i n g out the t r u c k c o s t savings shows  up p a r t o f the new p o t e n t i a l due t o investment  i n roads;  the  s t r u c t u r e o f a c t i v i t y a t f a v o u r e d nodes would need t o be known i n o r d e r t o suggest with some c e r t a i n t y the response; s i z e and type o f subsequent investment  and the  would need t o be known  i n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y the degree and nature o f response  t o the  new p o t e n t i a l .  6.3  TRUCKS IN THE TOTAL TRAFFIC I f a connection i s i m p l i e d between t r u c k c o s t s a v i n g s  and response  o f user a c t i v i t i e s , the q u e s t i o n a r i s e s as t o how  much c o s t s have t o change b e f o r e the savings become usable, both to t r u c k o p e r a t o r s and t o s h i p p e r s . fit  Many s t u d i e s o f user bene-  ( c i t e d i n f o l l o w i n g pages) have w r e s t l e d w i t h t h i s problem.  R e a l i z a t i o n o f time savings depends on the degree o f improvement r e l a t i v e t o t o t a l t r a v e l time; of time i n the t o t a l t r i p c o s t ; on the income l e v e l o f u s e r s ;  on the r e l a t i v e  importance  on the purpose o f the t r i p ; on the importance  of other t r a v e l  132 f e a t u r e s such as comfort, convenience, r e l i a b i l i t y , ness, s a f e t y , and congestion?  and on the r e l a t i v e  o f competing modes o f t r a n s p o r t . subjective?  directattributes  Such f e a t u r e s are l a r g e l y  more o b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n occurs where time  savings are r e a l i z a b l e i n o u t - o f - p o c k e t or c a p i t a l c o s t s , o r are v i t a l t o the marketing o f goods and  services.  G e n e r a l l y , commuter t r a f f i c has a low e v a l u a t i o n of the money c o s t o f time, weighing a g a i n s t convenience, p r i v a c y and c o n g e s t i o n .  T o u r i s t and r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a f f i c has a r e l a -  t i v e l y low e v a l u a t i o n o f time s a v i n g s , b e i n g more concerned w i t h s a f e t y , amenity, r e l i a b i l i t y and comfort.  P e r s o n a l and  b u s i n e s s t r a v e l probably weights time and comfort t o g e t h e r , e s p e c i a l l y over l o n g e r d i s t a n c e s where t r a i n o r a i r t r a v e l becomes p o s s i b l e .  I t would seem then, t h a t the technique o f  c o n v e r t i n g time s a v i n g s t o money v a l u e s stands on weak l o g i c a l grounds. Yet these g e n e r a l i z e d a s s e r t i o n s above, do not match one's p e r s o n a l experience - people do show a g r e a t s e n s i t i v i t y to d e l a y s .  The apparent c o n t r a d i c t i o n between response t o time  c o s t and response to money c o s t has s t i m u l a t e d much r e s e a r c h . Winfrey and Z e l l n e r  1  (1971» p. 6 l ) sum up the problem:  " T r a v e l time has p s y c h o l o g i c a l a t t r i b u t e s t h a t g i v e i t , perhaps, an importance beyond i t s r e a l monetary v a l u e . People do not l i k e to be delayed ...are more s a t i s f i e d i f they keep moving while i n t h e i r v e h i c l e s ...even p r e f e r r i n g t h a t to a t r i p t h a t r e q u i r e s l e s s time but i n v o l v e s more s t o p s . " The need to put a v a l u e on the cost o f time has been imposed  by the accepted technique o f highway economy s t u d i e s .  Time s a v i n g s are o f t e n the main j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r p r o j e c t s ,  133 hence the need to convince the f i n a n c i n g a u t h o r i t i e s t h a t time means money. ( 1 9 6 2 , p. 1 2 - 3 )  I n a review o f c o s t - b e n e f i t s t u d i e s , F l e i s c h e r found t h a t time b e n e f i t s ranged from 4 3 $ to  of a l l other b e n e f i t s .  Commercial v e h i c l e time was  37$ to  set of studies.  k  73$  17$  o f a l l b e n e f i t s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o a l l users* time, and was to 88$ o f a l l b e n e f i t s i n another  13 $  But f o r most  p e r s o n a l t r a v e l , i n c l u d i n g commuting, time s a v i n g s do not r e l e a s e any income f o r other purposes ( u n l e s s one  i s going to a s s e r t  t h a t 'income* i s a f u n c t i o n o f a l l time and money t o g e t h e r ) . Truck o p e r a t o r s probably p e r c e i v e p l a c e t o p l a c e s a v i n g s as v i t a l ,  e s p e c i a l l y i f the c o n v e r s i o n from time  money s a v i n g s i s r e a l i z a b l e .  Employed d r i v e r s , who  time  to  i n B.C.  can  choose to be p a i d an h o u r l y or a per m i l e r a t e , ^ would r e g a r d 1  time s a v i n g s as a bonus i n l e i s u r e ?  i f time saved  can be  i n t o more t r i p s and more m i l e s covered i n a month, then  turned  they  g a i n i n money terms as w e l l , and the t r u c k owners g a i n g r e a t e r revenue-miles  from e x i s t i n g c a p a c i t y .  F o r each type of t r a v e l , there i s a minimum a t which time s a v i n g s become meaningful.  Thomas ( 1 9 6 7 ) suggested  that  commuters do not v a l u e time s a v i n g s o f l e s s than 5 minutes per trip.  S m a l l savings f o r one v e h i c l e , m u l t i p l i e d by the  daily  t r a f f i c , and then v a l u e d a t an average h o u r l y c o s t , do not g i v e a r e a l i s t i c measure of b e n e f i t . to 30 minutes mean l i t t l e  Gver-the-road  s a v i n g s o f up  to most t r a v e l l e r s and t r u c k d r i v e r s ,  the savings b e i n g used by the l a t t e r f o r l o n g e r stops or more r e l a x e d paperwork and  checking o f equipment. ^ 1  Unless or u n t i l  the t r u c k d r i v e r or o p e r a t o r sees the advantage o f r e a r r a n g i n g h i s schedule f o r the whole round t r i p , p r o p e r l y c o - o r d i n a t e d  134 with terminal f a c i l i t i e s , w i l l not be  'added up' and  Fleischer  then s m a l l s a v i n g s from l i n k t o l i n k used.  (1962, p.5,1?,289)  r e f u t e d the assumptions  u n d e r l y i n g time-savings a n a l y s i s i n highway economy. saved does not have immediate economic v a l u e .  Time  Not a l l i n c r e -  ments of s a v i n g can be added, he s a i d , hence the f a l l a c y o f v a l u i n g t o t a l hours of time saved a t the average time f o r d r i v e r s and v e h i c l e s .  straight-line  Minimum hours and s u b s i s t e n c e  arrangements f o r d r i v e r s o f t e n negate the p o t e n t i a l savings to  the owners of over-the-road and t e r m i n a l changes.  'Large'  time s a v i n g s might make a d i f f e r e n c e i n o p e r a t i o n s over a c e r t a i n range,  p r o v i d e d t h a t cargo supply i s continuous,  and  d r i v e r s ' hours f l e x i b l e - i n which case o p e r a t o r s c o u l d hope to  achieve a g r e a t e r revenue-mileage  over a y e a r .  C e r t a i n l y out-of-pocket c o s t s w i l l be reduced roads are improved - f o r t y r e s , brakes,  as  suspension, a c c i d e n t s  -  but, as has been emphasized they are s m a l l i n r e l a t i o n t o time costs.  The  conclusion of F l e i s c h e r , a f t e r studying a f l e e t  o p e r a t i o n on the U.S.  West Coast, was  t h a t the company was  un-  a b l e to take advantage o f g a i n s due t o r o a d improvements u n t i l • s u b s t a n t i a l * g a i n s accrued over an e i g h t - y e a r p e r i o d , a l l o w i n g r e o r g a n i z a t i o n of o p e r a t i o n s , schedules and warehousing H i s study d e a l s w i t h o n l y one  company.  It is likely  t h a t competitors, while i n h i b i t i n g the readjustment observed  (p.286-9).  of the  company, entered the i n d u s t r y t o p r o v i d e b e t t e r s e r v i c e ,  perhaps d e f l a t i n g f r e i g h t charges r e l a t i v e to other p r i c e s , thus d e l i v e r i n g t o the economy g e n e r a l l y some o f the to  be expected from improved r o a d s .  and  savings  I t i s l a r g e l y the s t r u c t u r e  135 o f the i n d u s t r y and  competing modes, ( i n c l u d i n g the r a m i f i c a -  t i o n s of r e g u l a t i o n ) , and  the t r a n s p o r t needs of a c t i v i t y i n  a r e g i o n , t h a t determine the e f f e c t o f improved o p e r a t i o n s producers and  consumers.  indeterminate  r e l a t i o n s h i p , between road improvements  truck operations, justments.  There i s a l a g time, and  and between t r u c k o p e r a t o r s *  and  possibly  c a t i v e only, and  i n the f o l l o w i n g pages - the savings  simulation are  indi-  by F l e i s c h e r .  R e s t r i c t i n g the c o s t e s t i m a t e s t o l a r g e t r u c k s excludes a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of highway u s e r s . were 288,000 v e h i c l e s r e g i s t e r e d i n B.C.,  In 1 9 6 1 , and  The  In 1950,  only, there  o f which 74,000 were  l a t t e r were growing a t about 9$ per  the t o t a l was  i n 1971,  ad-  t h e i r e f f e c t s need to be s t u d i e d n e a r e r to  the l e v e l e x p l o r e d  commercial.  an  and  users'  These weaknesses are kept i n mind i n the  o f cost savings  on  year. ^ 1  584,000, o f which 117,000 were commercial}  the f i g u r e s were 1,084,000 and  228,000 r e s p e c t i -  16  vely.  Commercial v e h i c l e s i n c l u d e a wide range o f vans  l i g h t trucks, often associated with l o c a l d e l i v e r y , small v i c e s and  farming.  but accounted f o r about 17  covered by commercial v e h i c l e s . '  s t a t e freeway i n Oregon, F l e i s c h e r ( 1 9 6 2 , to be 19$  ser-  inter-  found  trucks  p. 36)  o f a l l v e h i c l e s , the heavy t r u c k s alone b e i n g  - a t 4 a.m.,  35$}  a t 8 a.m.,  18$;  about 65$ o f t o t a l t r a f f i c ; a t noon, 14$;  and  6$.  a t 6 p.m.,  at 6  1972,  on the main highways o f B.C.,  time  a.m.,  11$.  Observations d u r i n g daytime t r a v e l i n J u l y and ber,  80$  On the  Commercial v e h i c l e s i n observed r u r a l t r a f f i c vary with the 1 8 o f day  7$  ' I n t e r - c i t y f o r - h i r e * r e g i s t r a t i o n s were  o f a l l commercial v e h i c l e s i n 1 9 6 4 , o f ton-miles  and  showed t r u c k s to  Septembe  136 about 10% o f t r a f f i c p a s s i n g i n the opposite t r u c k s b e i n g 7%.  d i r e c t i o n , heavy  S a w h i l l e t a l , ( 1 9 7 0 , p, 3 6 ) found t h a t l a r g e  t r u c k s were about 6% o f t o t a l t r a f f i c on m e t r o p o l i t a n  freeways  about S e a t t l e , d e c l i n i n g t o 1% i n peak p e r i o d s .  (1950)  Saal  found t h a t a l l commercial t r u c k s made up 18% o f t r a f f i c on 4 - l a n e highways, and 25% on freeways. probably  T h i s p r o p o r t i o n would  have changed s i n c e then, as the r a t e o f i n c r e a s e o f 19  p r i v a t e v e h i c l e s has exceeded t h a t o f commercial v e h i c l e s .  7  T r a f f i c counts i n B.C. do not d i f f e r e n t i a t e between types o f v e h i c l e .  However, a survey c a r r i e d out i n the summer  o f 1 9 7 2 by the Department o f Highways attempted t o g i v e a break20 down o f composition.  At 4 6 s t a t i o n s , observations  were made  f o r p a r t s o f one o r two days d u r i n g J u l y o r August, t o count the number o f c a r s , v i s i t i n g c a r s , campers, pick-ups, and heavy t r u c k s and buses. 9 a.m. o r 1 0 a.m.,  Since most o b s e r v a t i o n s  light began a t  and ended a t 4 p.m. o r 5 p.m., the propor-  t i o n o f t r u c k s i n t h e t o t a l d a i l y t r a f f i c i s underestimated. Many t r u c k s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e summer, w i l l move a t n i g h t time t o a v o i d o t h e r t r a f f i e and t o meet schedules.  A l s o , the  car t r a f f i c has g r e a t e r seasonal v a r i a t i o n than the t r u c k fic.  traf-  The o v e r a l l r e s u l t s o f t h e survey showed heavy t r u c k s as  5% o f weekday t r a f f i c ,  2% o f weekend t r a f f i e , and 3 . 7 % o v e r a l l .  I f l i g h t t r u c k s a r e i n c l u d e d , t h e percentages a r e 1 1 ,  5» and 8  respectively. The  Department o f Commercial Transport  keeps aggregate  annual f i g u r e s f o r v e h i c l e s c a l l i n g a t weigh s t a t i o n s .  The  count i s done manually, and t h e r e i s some doubt about i t s  137 reliability.  The s t a t i o n s do n o t operate  around the c l o c k ,  so t h a t many t r u c k movements a r e unrecorded.  The t o t a l checked  has remained remarkably constant - 1 . 3 1 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 6 6 - 7 , 1.34  million i n 1969-70.  In 1970-1,  to 1 . 2 7 m i l l i o n , but t h i s recovered  there was a g e n e r a l  slump  to 1.39 m i l l i o n i n 1971-2.  C o n s i d e r i n g t h a t there a r e about 1 8 , 0 0 0 ' i n t e r - c i t y  for-hire'  21 registrations,  and a l l o w i n g f o r o u t - o f - p r o v i n c e  operators,  then the check-ins per heavy t r u c k a r e only about 70 p e r y e a r . T h i s seems r a t h e r low f o r the l i k e l y annual mileage o f 5 0 , 0 0 0 , suggesting  t h a t the weight-checking s t a t i o n s have a poor time-  and area-coverage.  Comparison w i t h g e n e r a l counts a t the per-  manent t r a f f i e s t a t i o n s supports  that contention.  Thirteen  l o c a t i o n s were comparable i n 1 9 7 1 - commercial v e h i c l e s averaged only about 1 . 4 $ o f annual t r a f f i c .  Excluding  s t a t i o n s o b v i o u s l y counting much commuter t r a f f i c  those (such as  east o f P a t u l l o Bridge) the p r o p o r t i o n was 4 . 2 $ , s t i l l very low in relation to registrations. The Annual Report o f the Department o f Highways r e c o r d s t r a f f i c on f e r r i e s .  Taking a random sample o f y e a r s  and p l a c e s i n the l a s t decade, ' t r u c k s ' have averaged 2 1 $ o f total vehicles carried,  I t s h o u l d be noted t h a t most o f the  f e r r i e s now occur on t h e branch r o u t e s o n l y :  that i s , not  s e r v i n g i n t e r - u r b a n t r a f f i c as d e f i n e d i n t h i s study.  Neverthe-  l e s s , the complete coverage by f e r r y o p e r a t o r s r e s u l t s i n a f i g u r e nearer  t o the r e g i s t r a t i o n s .  S t a t i s t i c s Canada (see  r e f . 6 : 1 7 ) p r o v i d e d an o u t l i n e o f t r u c k o p e r a t i o n s vince i n 1 9 6 4 . was 3 0 , 0 0 0 ;  i n the pro-  The average y e a r l y mileage f o r heavy t r u c k s  the average revenue p e r t r u c k was about $ 1 3 , 0 0 0 ;  138 and the average ton-mile revenue about 4 , 5 c e n t s .  It is  i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t 33% o f the t o t a l mileage was covered while the t r u c k was empty, and t h a t 63% o f t o t a l ton-mile c a p a c i t y was used, i n d i c a t i n g the f r e q u e n t absence o f back-haul loads.  L i v e animals gave the h i g h e s t ton-mile revenue a t 14  cents, g e n e r a l f r e i g h t gave 5 cents, crude m a t e r i a l s 5 , and f r e s h food 3 . 6 , The  T o r - h i r e T r u c k i n g Survey o f B.C. 1970*  Statistics  Canada, s e r i e s 53-224) updates the p r e v i o u s i n f o r m a t i o n .  It  p r o v i d e s some i n t e r e s t i n g commentary on the imbalance o f flows and revenues t o and from Vancouver (see chapter 8 o f t h i s  thesis).  There i s a g r e a t e r d i s p a r i t y i n revenues than i n tonnages, because the shipments 'valuable* t o t r u c k o p e r a t o r s , such as g e n e r a l f r e i g h t and end products, mostly  i n o r from Vancouver.  a r e those which o r i g i n a t e  The estimated t o t a l revenues o f  f o r - h i r e i n t e r - c i t y c a r r i e r s was $ 1 9 5 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 7 0 - about the same as t o t a l farm cash r e c e i p t s ! 22 U.S. s t u d i e s i n 1 9 5 7 f r o z e n f r u i t and vegetable  showed t h a t t r u c k s took 61% o f  shipments, 90% o f p o u l t r y , 50% o f  canned goods, and were g n e r a l l y i n c r e a s i n g t h e i r share.  In  B.C., the p r o p o r t i o n s a r e probably h i g h e r , because o f the l e s s competitive r a i l s e r v i c e and the g a t h e r i n g o f populated w i t h i n t h e competitive range o f t r u c k s . Lower Mainland  areas  P a r c e l m a i l out o f the  has been d i s t r i b u t e d by t r u c k r a t h e r than  train  since 1 9 6 2 . Some t r a n s - c o n t i n e n t a l h a u l i e r s o f f e r f a s t e r - t h a n rail  service.  imported  A l l o f the f r e s h f r u i t moves by t r u c k .  Some  c a r s a r e taken by t r u c k from Vancouver to Edmonton.  139 More f r e s h f i s h i s b e i n g t r u c k e d out of P r i n c e Rupert P r a i r i e and U.S.  I n t e r i o r markets.  g e s t i o n s o f the importance  A l l these are o n l y sug-  of truck operations.  the data from which to a s s e s s the importance the t o t a l t r a n s p o r t f u n c t i o n of B.C. cases, u n r e l i a b l e . importance  t o the  Obviously,  of trucking i n  i s very patchy and i n some  A separate study i s r e q u i r e d t o analyze the  and s t r u c t u r e o f the t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y i n B.C.,  d e t a i l the changes due t o road investment,  technology,  t i t i o n , and users* p r e f e r e n c e , and t o support an  to  compe-  understanding  o f s p a t i a l changes i n the economy.  6.4  METHOD OF SIMULATION OF TRUCK OPERATING COSTS The accuracy of a s i m u l a t i o n depends on the q u a l i t y  of data a v a i l a b l e , on the s t r e n g t h and s t a b i l i t y o f l o g i c a l l y or e m p i r i c a l l y - s u p p o r t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and on the s u c c e s s f u l arrangement i n s t e p s o f n a t u r a l or induced p r o c e s s e s t h a t are g e n e r a l l y f l u i d and continuous.  Q u a n t i t i e s and  have t o v a r y by measureable degrees, lation.  The  relationships  or be i g n o r e d by the simu-  f i n e n e s s o f measurement depends mainly on the  poses o f the s i m u l a t i o n .  I f one  pur-  i s s e e k i n g the * t r u t h * i n  t r a v e l c o s t s between p l a c e s , then the s i m u l a t i o n i n c l u d e s such d e t a i l as o i l consumption, gear changes, r i s e and f a l l i n f e e t , d r i v e r s * response so on.  to c o n g e s t i o n , d r i v e r s * f r i n g e b e n e f i t s ,  L e s s d e t a i l would be r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e a f l e e t  t o r w i t h an estimate of h i s r u n n i n g c o s t s .  and  opera-  F o r most s t u d i e s  o f s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n Geography, even more g e n e r a l i z e d measurements have been made, u s i n g o n l y time or t o t a l d i s t a n c e  140 data.  I t was  suggested i n an e a r l i e r chapter t h a t the  deter-  r e n t component i n the g r a v i t y model ought to be more thoroughly d e s c r i b e d and  q u a n t i f i e d - but not to the extent  of having a  f i n e measure i n the denominator as a g a i n s t a g r o s s measure i n the numerator.  Since the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t r a v e l  frequency o f t r a v e l , p r i c e s of goods and v i t y are not  general  cost,  economic a c t i -  c l e a r l y d e f i n e d nor n e c e s s a r i l y determinate, i t  would be i n c o n s i s t e n t to apply  a strict  a r a t h e r vague assessment o f response.  estimate of c o s t s to Indicative quantities  o n l y are r e q u i r e d f o r t h i s study, to p i c k out the v a r y i n g  degree  of change f o r l i n k s In the network. The most d e t a i l e d s i m u l a t i o n s come from the c i v i l engineers,  o f t r u c k c o s t s have  some working on engine  and  23 v e h i c l e design,  others on the design  of f a c i l i t i e s .  Increa-  J  s i n g refinement o f the parameters u s u a l l y e n t a i l s a m u l t i p l i c a t i o n o f the data requirements, hence the r e s t r i c t i o n 24  of  e m p i r i c a l t e s t s t o very s m a l l s e c t i o n s o f highways.  Highway  economy s t u d i e s g e n e r a l i z e from the b a s i c r e s e a r c h . l i n e s f o r use  on e v a l u a t i o n o f p r o j e c t s g e n e r a l i z e  a d j u s t i n g to the data a v a i l a b l e and  Guide-  J  further,  to the purposes o f  the  evaluation.^ Roberts (1966) used a s u b s t a n t i a l amount of i n preparing The  detail  a s i m u l a t i o n f o r t r u c k c o s t s i n developing  8 v a r i a b l e s f o r the l i n k and  12  f o r the t r u c k r e q u i r e  data not g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e i n t h a t s i t u a t i o n . o f the s i m u l a t i o n and with the type and  the e f f o r t r e q u i r e d ,  The  some  fineness  seem out of balance  degree o f response which one  those circumstances.  countries.  might expect i n  A s i m i l a r c r i t i c i s m might be a p p l i e d to  141 the s i m u l a t i o n used by G r i f f i t h s f i n e margins o f f u e l , o i l , and  (1968), which i n c l u d e d  very  t y r e c o s t s i n a model f o r  a s s e s s i n g road development p r o j e c t s i n Dahomey.  Gauthier  d e s c r i b e d the d i f f i c u l t y o f o b t a i n i n g i n f o r m a t i o n  on  trans-  p o r t a t i o n c o s t s i n B r a z i l , mainly because the i n d u s t r y " i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a l a r g e number of very p. 108).  small firms"  Using l o c a l l y generated estimates,  Gauthier included  overhead charges, i n i t i a l equipment c o s t s and expenses to d e r i v e a s e t o f v a l u e s  (1968,  administrative  r e l a t i n g transport  costs  to l e n g t h o f h a u l over d i f f e r e n t types of s u r f a c e .  The  t i o n s h i p between t r a v e l c o s t and  overhead  c o s t s was  a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and  rela-  d i s c u s s e d by Stevens (1961) and Adkins et a l . ( 1 9 6 7 ) ;  g e n e r a l l y , the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s too weak o r indeterminate f i x a measure o f g a i n due  to r o a d improvement. ? 2  to  Kissling  ( 1 9 6 6 ) r e l i e d mainly on the g u i d e l i n e s of Stevens ( I 9 6 I ) AASHO ( i 9 6 0 )  i n o b t a i n i n g r u n n i n g speeds and  f o r Nova S c o t i a , from a highway i n v e n t o r y For l a c k o f time and  information,  operating  and  costs  t a k i n g i n 10 v a r i a b l e s .  the p r e s e n t  study takes i n  only 7 v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g the l i n k , to d e r i v e r u n n i n g speeds, 28  l i n k time and  c o s t f o r a 70,000 l b . g r o s s tandem s e m i - t r a i l e r .  E l a b o r a t i o n of the content and provided  mechanics o f the s i m u l a t i o n i s  i n Appendix I I I . The  d e s c r i p t i o n o f l i n k s i n the B.C.  r o a d system  been compiled from topographic maps, t o u r i s t maps, and  has  by t r a c i n g  the development h i s t o r y o f each l i n k through the accounts i n the Annual Reports.  The  y e a r s 1952,  1962  to mark stages i n highway development. are s c a r c e ;  and  1971  have been chosen  Route data before  1952  investment data are a v a i l a b l e o n l y u n t i l March  1971»  142 at  the time o f w r i t i n g .  D i s t a n c e s and f e r r y d e l a y s have been  taken from p u b l i s h e d t o u r i s t maps.  Zones o f l e g a l  speed  r e s t r i c t i o n s have been estimated from t o p o g r a p h i c maps and, i n the l a t e s t year, from p e r s o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n s .  The type and  c o n d i t i o n o f s u r f a c e s has been taken from t o u r i s t maps, topog r a p h i c maps, r e f e r e n c e s i n the accounts, and p e r s o n a l observation.  Lane and roadway widths - f o r which the data a r e l e a s t  r e l i a b l e - have been estimated from topographic maps, r e f e r e n c e s i n the accounts and p e r s o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n .  Grades have been  estimated r a t h e r c r u d e l y from t o p o g r a p h i c maps, c a l c u l a t i n g the t o t a l r i s e and f a l l over a l i n k , and m o d i f y i n g the g r a d i e n t f a c t o r where r e f e r e n c e s i n the accounts or  r e d e s i g n o p e r a t i o n s had taken p l a c e .  suggested  cut-and-fill  Curves c o u l d not be  estimated from the a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n .  Volume o f t r a f f i c  was measured from the Department o f Highways summer counts o f 1953,  1954,  1962,  traffic  and 1971.  Average running speeds on s t r a i g h t , l e v e l ,  unimpeded 29  s u r f a c e s were s e t a t 50mph, f o r paved and 38mph. f o r g r a v e l .  7  Speeds w i t h i n l e g a l zones were s e t a t 20mph.^° - l e g a l zones i n d i c a t e a h i g h e r frequency o f i n t e r s e c t i o n s , crosswalks, fic lights,  stop s i g n s , o n - s t r e e t p a r k i n g e t c . , which  speeds w i t h i n urban a r e a s . i n September, 1972,  P e r s o n a l o b s e r v a t i o n on a Thursday  estimate.  Lane and roadway widths reduce From the sources r e f e r r e d t o , ^ Table XI.  reduce  o f t r u c k s p a s s i n g through Kamloops and  Vernon, supported the 20mph.  for  traf-  1  d e s i r e d o r f r e e speed.  a range o f f a c t o r s was d e r i v e d  I n d i c a t i o n s from comparison o f c a l c u l a t e d and  observed speeds suggest t h a t g r e a t e r r e s t r i c t i v e i n f l u e n c e  143 should a p p l y on narrow and r e s t r i c t e d roads i n the e a r l i e r years, TABLE XI PERCENTAGE OF FREE SPEED, UNDER WIDTH RESTRICTIONS Range  Description Open i  12' l a n e s , good good v i s i o n  Narrow* Restricted*  shoulders, 96 - 100  ......  10*-12* l a n e s , poor shoulders, adequate v i s i o n l e s s than 10* l a n e s , poor shoulders, poor v i s i o n ......  88 -  95  82 -  88  The danger i s t h a t the width f a c t o r i s a p p l i e d w i t h the grade and volume f a c t o r i n h i l l y winding s e c t i o n s , g i v i n g an u n r e a l i s t i c cumulative r e s t r a i n t ;  whereas the presence o f a grade  f a c t o r more o r l e s s c a n c e l s out the e f f e c t o f a width f a c t o r , as the v e h i c l e i s slowed by g r a v i t y r a t h e r than by d r i v e r ' s caution. A measurement o f the t o t a l r i s e and f a l l was taken from maps, i . e . each time the r o a d c r o s s e d a 1 0 0 ' contour l i n e . The average r i s e and f a l l , rity,  a s l i g h t l y b e t t e r i n d i c a t o r o f seve-  was found by d i v i d i n g the t o t a l by the l i n k  distance.  T h i s measure i s n o t as p r e c i s e a s K i s s l i n g ' s ' c r i t i c a l  gradient*  ( 1 9 6 9 , p. 114) i n measuring the e f f e c t s on t r u c k speed. o f f a c t o r s was d e r i v e d from experiments elsewhere.-^  2  A range  Grades  a l s o i n c r e a s e the r a t e o f f u e l consumption by a g r e a t e r  margin  than t h a t caused by a decrease i n speed, due t o gear r e d u c t i o n . So a f a c t o r f o r e x t r a f u e l consumption on grades was added, (see Table X I I ) .  144 TABLE XII INDICES OF FREE SPEED AND NORMAL CONSUMPTION, DUE INCREASING RISE AND FALL R i s e and F a l l * ( t o t a l R.and F. •f m i l e s )  1  2  3  4  5  6  Modern paved  95  85  74  62  53  46  Old paved  93  82  71  57  47  40  Gravel  98  92  81  72  66  60  110  120  145  170  200  230  Consumption *  TO  T o t a l R i s e and F a l l i s found by counting the number o f times the road c r o s s e s 100* contour l i n e s , then m u l t i p l y i n g by •7J|§§» "to supply the s c a l e with an i n t e g e r .  Note«  r e d u c t i o n s o f speed on g r a v e l are l e s s severe because o f the lower base speeds a t t r i b u t a b l e to g r a v e l roads. The r e d u c t i o n s on modern pavements are r e l a t i v e l y l e s s severe because o f the r e a l i g n i n g o f curves, grades and c u t t i n g s during r e c o n s t r u c t i o n .  I n c o r p o r a t i o n o f a f a c t o r to r e f l e c t volume o f f i c was  most d i f f i c u l t .  not t e l l o f the frequency  The  traf-  t r a f f i c counts are patchy and  o f t r u c k s i n the t o t a l stream.  summer counts o v e r s t a t e the average annual d a i l y f l o w . knowing the h o u r l y d i s t r i b u t i o n s of t r a f f i c ,  do The  Without  i t i s impossible  to deduce the l e n g t h o f p e r i o d s when flow i s approaching capacity.  A l s o , one  can only g e n e r a l i z e very b r o a d l y i n s a y i n g  t h a t t r u c k d r i v e r s and owners w i l l a v o i d congested p e r i o d s rescheduling.  Such r e s c h e d u l i n g c a r r i e s an e x t r a p e n a l t y  by to  the o p e r a t o r i n overtime or n i g h t s h i f t r a t e s , so the a p p l i c a t i o n o f a f a c t o r f o r daytime c o n g e s t i o n i s not e n t i r e l y  indiscrimi-  nate (Table X I I I ) . F u e l consumption v a r i e s a c c o r d i n g to r u n n i n g gross weight, engine power, g r a d i e n t s and  so  on.  34  speed,  145 TABLE X I I I PERCENTAGE OF FREE SPEED, UNDER AVERAGE DAILY FLOWS Volume  Paved  ^ 3 5 0 0 p e r day, 2 lane 3500 -  100  100  93  97  92  90  5500  ^5500 Note:  Gravel  the f a c t o r s are somewhat i n f l a t e d f o r t h i s s i m u l a t i o n , s i n c e they a r e a p p l i e d a f t e r width and grade f a c t o r s .  t  the g r e a t e r hazard o f v i s i o n and i n c r e a s e d s p a c i n g reduces the speed on g r a v e l s u r f a c e s by a s l i g h t l y wider margin.  t  r e f . S a a l ( 1 9 5 0 ) , p. 21j AASH0 ( i 9 6 0 ) , p. 2 9 , and de W e i l l e (1966), p. 4 9 .  For s i m p l i c i t y , t h i s s i m u l a t i o n t i e s consumption gradients only. 35mph,,  Consumption  66,  80;  t o speeds and  decreases f o r speeds from 20 t o  then s t a r t s to i n c r e a s e  (see Table XIV).  F u e l i s one  c o s t whose t o t a l might r i s e because o f improvements t o road facilities.  Cost per g a l l o n i s s e t a t 40  cents.  TABLE XIV INDICATIVE FUEL CONSUMPTION AT AVERAGE RUNNING SPEEDS (vehicle 3-S-2, d i e s e l , 7 0 , 0 0 0 1 b . gross) Speed G a l l o n s per m i l e  20  25  30  35  40  45  50  .26  .23  .20  .20  .22  .26  .28  The c a l c u l a t i o n o f h o u r l y c o s t of v e h i c l e s and has p r o v i d e d w i d e l y d i f f e r i n g v a l u e s . $ 3 . 0 0 per hour;  Kissling  F l e i s c h e r ( 1 9 6 2 ) used $ 3 . 9 0 ;  (1966)  drivers  used  Adkins e t a l .  ( 1 9 6 7 ) used $4 to $8;  Winfrey and Z e l l n e r used $ 3 . 7 5 ;  and  Koppelman used $ 6 . 0 0 .  Based on the e x i s t i n g Teamsters*  Union  c o n t r a c t , d r i v e r s ' wages i n B.C.  are s e t a t $ 5 . 0 0 per hour, and  146 an average o f $ 0 . 6 0 overnight  stops).  i s allowed f o r s u b s i s t e n c e  (meals and  F o l l o w i n g t h e example o f Adkins e t a l .  ( 1 9 6 7 , p. 3 6 ) , $ 2 has been added f o r d r i v e r s ' w e l f a r e  (holi-  days, workers' compensation, e t c . ) and v e h i c l e d e p r e c i a t i o n . - ^ The  j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r these i n c l u s i o n s i s t h a t on an improved  l i n k , l e s s time i s spent, and t h e r e f o r e l e s s o f the d i r e c t operating  cost i s a t t r i b u t a b l e to that section.  The t o t a l  time c o s t a p p l i e d i n t h i s s i m u l a t i o n i s $ 7 . 5 0 p e r hour. V e h i c l e maintenance and r e p a i r c o s t i s a complex f u n c t i o n o f average speed, weight, l o a d s , speed changes, curves and grades. i n t e s t s e c t i o n s elsewhere, and  surfaces,  Using evidence gathered  t h e c o s t o f r e p a i r s , maintenance  t y r e s was s e t a t 18 cents p e r mile f o r o l d g r a v e l , 17  cents f o r normal g r a v e l , 13 cents  f o r o l d pavement, and 12  cents f o r pavement under 8 y e a r s o l d (where t h i s was a v a i l a b l e from maps and the f i n a n c i a l  6.5  stops,  information  accounts).  OUTPUT FROM THE SIMULATION From the data a n d . r e l a t i o n s h i p s  o u t l i n e d i n the p r e -  v i o u s s e c t i o n and i n Appendix I I I , t r u c k c o s t s on each l i n k were c a l c u l a t e d f o r 1 9 5 2 , 1 9 6 2 , and 1 9 7 1 . information  obtained  An example o f the  i s g i v e i n Table XV.  Note t h a t the d o l l a r f i g u r e s a r e i n 1 9 7 1 v a l u e s t h i s i s the c o s t o f running a 1 9 7 1 t r u c k a t 1971 f a c t o r p r i c e s over a l i n k whose c o n d i t i o n has been d e s c r i b e d a t three The  f i g u r e s a r e n o t comparable with G a u t h i e r ' s  stages.  - he i n c l u d e d  a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and overhead c o s t s , the f i g u r e s b e i n g i n B r a z i l i a n  147 TABLE XV TRUCK OPERATING COSTS ON SELECTED LINKS Av. Time Miles speed hours  Link  Year  Hope1952 P r i n c e t o n  Time Cost  $  Fuel Cost  $  83  31  2.7  20.04 1 0 . 7 4  Repairs tyres  Total Cost  10.79  41.55  $  1962  Pentictont Kelowna  48  35  1.37  10.29  4.61  5.76  1971  Revelstoke -Golden  92  28  3.27  24.50 18.55  11.96  c r u z e i r o s d e f l a t e d to 1940 values.  20.66 55.01  However, the f i g u r e s a r e  somewhat comparable with K i s s l i n g ' s , though he used a 3 0 , 0 0 0 lb,  t r u c k and a lower h o u r l y c o s t .  (see Table XVI)  TABLE XVI RELIABILITY OF CALCULATED COSTS Calculated Costs, 1 9 7 1 .  Links, of mileage ...  $  10-20  K i s s l i n g ' s costs, Nova S c o t i a , 1966.  4-11  $5-9  20-30  9-16  9-14  30-40  1 5 - 27  14-18  40-50  1 6 - 29  18-24  50-60  22-30  25-28  60-80  25-40  29-40  The  times per l i n k from the s i m u l a t i o n a r e comparable  with a c t u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s taken i n 1 9 7 2 , u s i n g a s m a l l c a r . T e s t s o f the r e l i a b i l i t y different links,  o f the s m a l l c a r speeds, taken on s i x  showed t h a t they overestimated  the t r u c k speed  by 4 - 8 % on f l a t o r r o l l i n g t e r r a i n , and by 8 - 1 2 $ on h i l l y  terrain.  148 These have been a d j u s t e d f o r i n c l u s i o n i n Table XVII.  For  f u r t h e r comparison, average r u n n i n g speeds f o r Greyhound were taken from the S p r i n g , 1 9 7 2 s c h e d u l e .  Fleischer  buses  (1962,  p. 74) noted t h a t the average speed f o r the bus was u s u a l l y about 5-10% f a s t e r than the t r u c k ' s .  F o r Table XVII, the  l i s t e d bus speeds have been reduced by 10%, the h i g h e r f i g u r e b e i n g used because o f the frequency o f h i l l y country, i n which buses u s u a l l y perform b e t t e r than t r u c k s . TABLE XVII RELIABILITY ,. . Tete Jaune L i t t l e Fort P r i n c e George Tete Jaune  OF CALCULATED SPEEDS, 1 9 7 1 Calculated Av. speed  Greyhound speed ( a d j )  Private car speed ( a d j )  36.4  37.8  39  42.6  38.7  42  41.6  41.4  43  36.5  36.0  39  28.6  34.2  35  33.0  34.2  35  Cranbrook Yahk Hope - L y t t o n Greenwood Osoyoos Hope Princeton  The c o n c l u s i o n from Table XVI and Table XVII i s t h a t the  e s t i m a t e s g i v e n by the s i m u l a t i o n f o r 1971 s u r f a c e s a r e  r e a s o n a b l y u s e f u l and r e l i a b l e f o r the purposes o f t h i s study. The margin o f e r r o r i s p r o b a b l y g r e a t e r on those l i n k s which have n o t been p e r s o n a l l y t e s t e d - P r i n c e Rupert t o P r i n c e  George  and to F o r t S t . John, and Vernon t o S l o c a n , Nelson, Kootenay Lake and C r e s t o n .  Some d i s c r e p a n c i e s a p p e a r i n g i n the output  149 are probably data.  The  due  to e r r o r o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n or inadequacy o f  range o f per mile c o s t s i s 40-50 cents f o r most  l i n k s , which compares w e l l with Stevens* 1961  estimates  of  38-40 c e n t s . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note the wider range i n c o s t estimates  as compared with those o f Nova S c o t i a .  ( 1 9 6 9 , p. 124-5) e x p l a i n e d  Kissling  that  "average speeds on the l i n k s may seem low ... i t must be remembered t h a t s m a l l s e t t l e m e n t s are numerous i n Nova S c o t i a ... as w e l l , there are poor o v e r t a k i n g c o n d i t i o n s , narrow winding and u n d u l a t i n g roads ... narrow bridges." With more open country between l i n k s , average speeds i n have been much h i g h e r f o r e q u i v a l e n t d i s t a n c e s .  Where average  speeds were s i m i l a r , as i n the Okanagan and A n n a p o l i s then the h i g h e r v e h i c l e and  valleys,  d r i v e r c o s t a p p l i e d i n B.C.  the t o t a l l i n k c o s t r e l a t i v e l y h i g h e r . f a s t e r average speeds i n B.C.  B.C.  forced  On the l o n g e r l i n k s ,  have kept t o t a l c o s t s w i t h i n the  same range as i n Nova S c o t i a . I t i s a l s o i n t e r e s t i n g to note the h i g h degree of c o r r e l a t i o n with the l i n k v a l u e s used by W i l l s ( 1 9 7 1 ) .  He  allowed 45mph. f o r a p r i v a t e c a r t r a v e l l i n g over a paved road, and  30mph.  over a g r a v e l r o a d .  Comparing h i s ear times and  s i m u l a t i o n ' s t r u c k c o s t s f o r a random 40 l i n k s o f 1952 the r e s u l t was and  r = .98.  the 1971,  and  T h i s shows the c l o s e l i n e a r i t y of time  c o s t s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r commercial v e h i c l e s , and  suggests  t h a t i n some cases, a c c e s s i b i l i t y can be f a i r l y e v a l u a t e d terms o f l i n k d i s t a n c e , s u r f a c e and time o n l y . c u l a r l y t r u e where d r i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s are  in  This i s p a r t i -  'smoothed out'  and  150 c o s t s averaged t o a per m i l e o r per hour b a s i s . simulation  appears  c o r r e l a t i o n on only •restrictive* next  chapter).  sufficiently discriminating,  However, the s i n c e the  those l i n k s deemed t o be * h i l l y ' or  f a l l s t o r = ,?4.  (see a l s o F i g u r e  24 i n the  151 REFERENCESi 1 F l e i s c h e r (1962) p . 1 2 H a l l e t a l . (1970) p.35. The l a t t e r found t h a t t r u c k s were 5.6% o f t r a f f i c , h u t g a i n e d 12% of annual time savings on m e t r o p o l i t a n freeways. }  2 T h i s p o i n t demonstrated by A d k i n s e t a l . ( 1 9 6 7 ) ; and i n U.S. Bureau o f P u b l i c Roads, Dept. o f Commerce ( I 9 6 I ) . 3 The t r u c k r e f e r r e d t o i s a d i e s e l tandem-tractor (5 a x l e s i n 3 - S - 2 ) , g r o s s weight o f 7 0 , 0 0 0 1 b s . , which i s q u i t e t y p i c a l o f t h e l o n g - d i s t a n c e h a u l i e r s i n B.C. E s t i m a t e s from g r o s s f i g u r e s o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada, s e r i e s 53-222, suggest $ 8 , 0 0 0 f o r r e p a i r s and t y r e s , and $3,000 f o r f u e l , lower f o r the l a t t e r because o f t h e i n c l u s i o n i n t h e i r sample o f s m a l l e r - e n g i n e trucks. 4 From the l i t e r a t u r e , i t seems t h a t t h e t r u c k o p e r a t o r s * lobby e x e r t s some p r e s s u r e f o r t h e g e n e r a l d i s p o s a l o f funds to highway development, but t h a t i t s maxn e f f o r t i s i n the f i e l d s o f t a x a t i o n and r e g u l a t i o n . 5 The proponents o f r e c e n t work a t t e m p t i n g t o p r e d i c t r e c r e a t i o n a l and p e r s o n a l t r a v e l would p r o b a b l y d i s p u t e t h i s statement - NCHRP Reports no. 82, 8 9 , 4 4 ; Plummer e t a l . (1961) p . 74-85j Thomas and Thompson (1970) p . 1-19; Wolfe (1969) p . 1 0 5 - 2 1 . Very simply put, the r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l i n t o o r out o f a p l a c e w i l l depend mainly on i t s r e l a t i v e amenity and a t t r a c t i v e n e s s . Two p l a c e s o f equal s i z e and p e r s o n a l income, b u t o f unequal a t t r a c t i v e n e s s , w i l l p r o b a b l y have s i m i l a r l e v e l s o f truck a c t i v i t y , but d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f recreational travel. 6 Gray (1969) c h . 5» s e t s out a users* e v a l u a t i o n o f s p e c t s of t r a n s p o r t s e r v i c e . 7  T h i s term suggested and e n l a r g e d upon by Lachene (1964)  p. 184-6.  8 Kansky (1963) p . 119-21} Lachene (1964) p. 1 9 4 - 6 ; G a u t h i e r (1968) p . 8 9 - 9 I ; Wilson (1970). 9 Hodge (1965)$ Cummings (1967)1  0*Sullivan (1969);  Kissling  (1967)1  10 T h i s f a c t o r was b u i l t i n t o t h e models o f K i s s l i n g (1966) p. 145; W i l l s ( 1 9 7 1 ) ; and Haynes and Ip (1971) p . 3 5 9 .  11  Fromm (I965);  Wilson e t a l .  (i960);  Brown (1966).  12 Adkins e t a l . (1967)} Winch ( 1 9 6 3 ) 1 Claffey (i960, 1961)1 Curry ( I 9 6 3 ) ; Thomas and Thompson ( 1 9 7 0 ) ; Thomas (1967)1 Haney (1967$, and L i s c o ( 1 9 6 7 ) , these l a s t t h r e e r e p o r t e d by Winfrey and Z e l i n e r .  152 13 S e t out i n the a r t i c l e s o f Master F r e i g h t and Cartage Agreement, General Teamsters* Union, L o c a l 181, Vancouver, B.C. i n January, 1 9 7 2 . The h o u r l y r a t e i s $ 5 . 0 0 , t h e mileage r a t e is $0.15. I f the average speed f o r the whole t r i p exceeds 3 3 m p h , , then the mileage r a t e i s more rewarding f o r the h i r e d driver. 14 P e r s o n a l view o f o f f i c i a l s a t Teamsters* L o c a l 181, Vancouver} and v e r i f i e d by an i n t e r v i e w i n "New York Times Magazine", 12 Nov., 1 9 7 2 ; and by F l e i s c h e r ( 1 9 6 2 ) p, 1 7 . 15  B.C. F a c t s and S t a t i s t i c s .  1970.  16 Annual Report, Motor V e h i c l e Branch. General, V i c t o r i a , B.C. 1 9 7 1 , p. 7 . 17 Motor T r a n s p o r t T r a f f i c i n B.C. 1 9 6 4 . s e r i e s 53-214. 18 19 U.S. 1959.  Dept. o f A t t o r n e y S t a t i s t i c s Canada,  Highway Research Board, S p e c i a l Report no. 8 7 , I 9 6 I , p. 3 7 . Trend f o r B.C. and O n t a r i o i s assumed t o be s i m i l a r i n Commission o f I n q u i r y i n t o Road-user Charges. Victoria, p. 1 5 .  20 Output o f the survey was k i n d l y made a v a i l a b l e by Mr, Harding, T r a f f i c Branch, Dept. o f Highways, V i c t o r i a . 21 E s t i m a t e d e r i v e d from s t a t i s t i c s c i t e d i n r e f . 16 and 1 7 , above. 22 Reported i n Highway Research Board, B u l l e t i n no. 3 0 1 , January I 9 6 I . p. 2 1 - 8 . 23  F i r e y and P e t e r s e n ( 1 9 6 2 )  24 S a a l ( 1 9 5 0 ) } (1970).  Claffey  ;  Clark  (I968).  ( I 9 6 I and 1 9 7 1 ) ;  Sawhill et a l .  25 Stevens ( 1 9 6 1 ) } Lang and Robbins ( 1 9 6 2 ) } Winfrey ( 1 9 6 3 ) } Roberts and Soberman ( 1 9 6 7 ) } Adkins e t a l . ( I 9 6 7 ) } Soberman and C l a r k ( 1 9 7 0 ) . 26 AASH0 ( i 9 6 0 ) } Ritter (I960); Hawkins ( i 9 6 0 ) } (1966)} G r i f f i t h s (1968)} Koppelman ( 1 9 7 0 ) .  de W e i l l e  27 T h i s a s s e r t i o n supported by i n f e r e n c e s from S t a t i s t i c s Canada, s e r i e s 5 3 - 0 0 5 ; and from F l e i s c h e r ' s 1 9 6 2 account o f a f i r m ' s adjustment. 28 The Dept. o f Highways now keeps a d e t a i l e d i n v e n t o r y o f the roads; so, more a c c u r a t e s i m u l a t i o n s s h o u l d be p o s s i b l e in future.  153 29 S a a l (1950) p. 2 0 ; AASHO ( I 9 6 0 ) p. 8 3 , 9 2 , 9 6 ; Claffey ( 1 9 6 1 ) p. 91 Highway Research Board, Report no. 63 ( 1 9 6 9 ) p. 58} de W e i l l e ( 1 9 6 6 ) p. 14, 5 0 - 1 . 30  Stevens (1961) p. 3 1 ,  3 1 AASHO ( I 9 6 0 ) p. 9 3 - 5 ; Highway C a p a c i t y Manual, 1 9 5 0 , p. 535 de W e i l l e ( 1 9 6 6 ) p. 49; K i s s l i n g ( 1 9 6 6 ) Appendix C, p. p.  32 Saal 72.  ( 1 9 5 0 ) p. 2 2 ;  de W e i l l e  ( 1 9 6 6 ) p. 1 5 ;  AASHO  (i960)  33 Soberman and C l a r k ( 1 9 7 0 ) p. 6 9 ; Stevens ( 1 9 6 1 ) p. de W e i l l e ( 1 9 6 6 ) p. 1 5 ; S a a l ( 1 9 5 0 ) p. 2 2 . 34 Stevens (1961) p. 1 1 7 ; Kent ( i 9 6 0 ) ; ( 1 9 7 0 ) p. 6 9 ; de W e i l l e ( 1 9 6 6 ) p. 1 5 , 53.  117;  Soberman and C l a r k  35 T h i s amount i s j u s t i f i e d as f o l l o w s t i f the v e h i c l e i s r e a s o n a b l y used f o r 5 0 hours per week f o r 5 0 weeks, the y e a r l y t o t a l o f 2500 hours g i v e s an a l l o w e d c o s t o f $ 5 0 0 0 . S i n c e v e h i c l e s l a s t about 8 y e a r s , w i t h a replacement c o s t of about $ 3 0 0 0 0 , then the allowed amount w i l l cover replacement and drivers' welfare. 36 AASHO ( i 9 6 0 ) p. 2 9 ; Stevens ( I 9 6 I ) ( 1 9 6 6 ) p. 3 0 , 6 0 ; Adkins e t a l . ( 1 9 6 7 ) . 37  Repairs: Tyres 1  p. 9 0 ;  paved, 8 c e n t s ; g r a v e l , 1 1 c e n t s . paved, 5 c e n t s ; g r a v e l , 6 c e n t s .  de W e i l l e  4.  CHAPTER 7 CHANGE IN THE NETWORK INDICATED BY TRUCK COSTS  7.1  INTRODUCTION The p r e c e d i n g chapter has s u p p l i e d a reasonable  measure o f improvement on each l i n k . different  The sum o f the l i n k s a t  times g i v e s a g e n e r a l i d e a o f change i n the network  since 1 9 5 2 .  That sum, however, i s not a t r u e r e f l e c t i o n o f  the use o f the network, f o r c e r t a i n l i n k s are more v i t a l o t h e r s i n terms o f s t r u c t u r e and o f use.  than  L i n k importance can  be measured i n three ways - by counting the numbert o f times a l i n k occurs i n minimum paths between p a i r s o f nodes? weighting the l i n k s by r e c o r d e d o r estimated t r a f f i c  by flow;  or by o b s e r v i n g the change i n node a c c e s s i b i l i t y s c o r e s w i t h s u c c e s s i v e removal o f v i t a l l i n k s from a network. chapter, l i n k improvements w i l l  f i r s t be c o n s i d e r e d f o r them-  s e l v e s , then r e l a t e d t o investments and then g i v e n measurement of t h i s l a s t measurement investment  In t h i s  p e r l i n k (out o f ch. 5 ) »  i n a network context.  The i n t e n t i o n  i s t o show t h a t the ' r e t u r n * on an  depends very much on where i t i s p l a c e d i n the  network.  7.2  INVESTMENT ALLOCATIONS AND TRUCK COST SAVINGS Some r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l a l l o c a t i o n s have a c h i e v e d  154  155 l a r g e savings (compare F i g . 17  remarkably 19 and 2 1 ) .  and 18 w i t h F i g .  These were cases o f upgrading from g r a v e l t o  tarmac with r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n - on the r a d i a l s from M e r r i t t , from Sicamous to Enderby Jn., from Greenwood to Grand F o r k s , and Dawson Greek t o F o r t S t . John.  Such changes  r e f l e c t the l a r g e p e n a l t i e s a p p l i e d t o speeds and r e p a i r c o s t s on g r a v e l s u r f a c e s , i n t h i s s i m u l a t i o n . For purposes  o f comparison of investment  and t r u c k  c o s t s a v i n g s , the r a t i o o f d o l l a r s per m i l e to each Ifo s a v i n g i n t r u c k c o s t s , i s s e t out i n F i g . 2 3 .  The  lower  quantities  i n d i c a t e a lower expenditure per u n i t o f s a v i n g s .  Breaching  of the passes between Revelstoke and Golden,  Salmo and  Creston,  Cascade and K i n n a i r d , Osoyoos and Keremeos, Hope and P r i n c e t o n , appear t o have been f u l l y  j u s t i f i e d by t h i s measure.  Invest-  ments i n the b r i d g e s a t Kelowna, C a s t l e g a r and Hudson's Hope, are a l s o shown up f a v o u r a b l y .  Savings on the Northern  p r o v i n c i a l appear t o have come r a t h e r 'cheaply*.  Trans-  The huge  c o s t s o f b r i n g i n g improvements t o b u i l t - u p areas and c o n f i n e d r o u t e s , are shown up by the Vancouver-Hope-Lytton-Cache Creek links.  On the o t h e r hand, these c o s t s would be  justified  by  those l i n k s having the h e a v i e s t t r a f f i c flows o f the whole network. The devious c o n n e c t i o n between investment  allocations  and t r u c k c o s t savings has been i m p l i e d i n the d i s c u s s i o n of l i n k investment  and node a c t i v i t y i n s e c t i o n o f chapter 5 .  weak c o r r e l a t i o n was  found between the s i z e of investment  change i n t r a f f i c flow on a l i n k . to be expected  A  k  and  A stronger c o r r e l a t i o n i s  i n r e l a t i n g truck cost savings to t r a f f i c flows,  Fig 19. Simulated Heavy-Truck Costs, 1952 Links.($, rounded)  Fig 23. Spending per Mile Related to Unit Savings in Truck Costs ($*000 per mile, per 1% saving 1971 over 1952).  161 p a r t l y because improved roads g e n e r a l l y  d i v e r t and o f t e n  gene-  r a t e t r a f f i c , p a r t l y because t r a f f i c has been g e n e r a l l y i n creasing  over a l l o f the P r o v i n c e , and p a r t l y because o f the  i n c l u s i o n o f some v i t a l paths i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r The  e f f e c t o f such an i n c l u s i o n i s t h a t t r a f f i c  more r e l a t e d to the f u n c t i o n  correlation. on the l i n k i s  o f the path, r a t h e r  than t o the  c o s t - s a v i n g a t t r i b u t e s o f a p a r t i c u l a r l i n k (see Table X V I I I ) . TABLE XVIII RELATIONSHIP OF INVESTMENT, Savings $, 1952-1971... related to:  TRAFFIC FLOWS AND TRUCK COSTS  Investment per l i n k  Investment per m i l e  (27)  {221  r  .36  .25  .33  exponent  .176  .119  .180  constant  87.6  That t r u c k cost the  (allT  87.2  89.7  Change i n T r a f f i c Flow  (27)  .789 41.8 - 48.8  s a v i n g s c o r r e l a t e v e r y weakly w i t h  s i z e o f investment i s not s u r p r i s i n g .  I t i s perhaps a f a u l t  of the s e t o f o b s e r v a t i o n s t h a t g i v e s a h i g h e r c o r r e l a t i o n o f savings w i t h t o t a l l i n k cost than with p e r m i l e l i n k cost f o u r l i n k s with r e l a t i v e l y huge t o t a l c o s t cause a s t r o n g  bias,  which i s somewhat weakened a f t e r the d i v i s i o n i n t o per m i l e cost.  F o r both c o r r e l a t i o n s , b u i l d - u p o f t r a f f i c  congestion  on some important and c o s t l y l i n k s has negated some o f the. e f f e c t s o f the investment;  a more p r e c i s e  t i m i n g o f the r e l a -  t i o n s h i p might w e l l f i n d s t r o n g c o r r e l a t i o n a t an e a r l i e r time, gradually  d e c r e a s i n g as t r a f f i c  increases.  This i s indicated  162 by the s l i g h t l y h i g h e r  c o r r e l a t i o n f o r a l l l i n k s , a grouping  which i n c l u d e s a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of the more remote, uncongested  links.  The  c o r r e l a t i o n s are weakened perhaps because  some c o s t l y c o n s t r u c t i o n items, such as b r i d g e s , up as t r u c k c o s t savings, used i n the  simulation.  permitting heavier nance c o s t s be  due  do not show  t o the g e n e r a l i t y o f d e s c r i p t i o n  Nor would t h e i r important e f f e c t s of  l o a d s , and  of reducing  shown i n t r u c k o p e r a t i n g  c o r r e l a t i o n g e n e r a l l y , i t might be  a c c i d e n t s and  costs.  mainte-  As f o r the  t h a t c o s t s i n the  earlier  y e a r s were underestimated f o r l a c k of p r e c i s e i n f o r m a t i o n  on  r o a d s u r f a c e s and  the  design,  thereby underestimating  as w e l l  degree o f improvement f o r the l a t e r y e a r . The another k i n d . congestion  method o f s i m u l a t i o n causes u n d e r e s t i m a t i o n o f Factors  i n d i c a t i n g r e s t r i c t i o n caused by  a p p l i e d o n l y i n the l a s t y e a r , s i n c e none of  t r a f f i c counts i n the e a r l i e r y e a r reached the c r i t i c a l  traffic the level.  I t might w e l l be t h a t a lower l e v e l a p p l i e d , i n f a c t , i n earl i e r years,  because o f narrower r o a d s .  The  g e n e r a l i t y of  map  d e s c r i p t i o n s prevented such a f a c t o r b e i n g a p p l i e d f a i r l y J any  in  case, the r e s t r i c t i n g width f a c t o r had a l r e a d y been a p p l i e d  more to the 1952 mation s t i l l  s u r f a c e s than to those o f 1 9 7 1 .  occurs,  however, because the  The  underesti-  s i m u l a t i o n does not  t e l l what would have been the c o s t o f r u n n i n g a t r u c k w i t h present  l e v e l s of t r a f f i c ,  over the o l d s u r f a c e s .  This  ence b r i n g s up the argument, w e l l presented by G r i f f i t h s ch. 3)  that "with  than "before  differ(1968,  and without" t e s t s are o f t e n more meaningful  and a f t e r " t e s t s , e s p e c i a l l y where t r a f f i c gene-  r a t i o n or s h i f t s i n a c t i v i t y  occur.  163 The weakness o f the c o r r e l a t i o n s shown i n T a b l e s IX and XVIII has important i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r development p l a n n e r s . The connections between investment, f a c i l i t i e s bought, t r a n s p o r t s a v i n g s and economic response, cannot be assumed t o be o f a p a r t i c u l a r q u a n t i t y or p a r t i c u l a r constancy.  Ridley  p. 4 ) r e c o g n i z e d the f i c k l e n e s s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s . model o f time s a v i n g s i n an improved  network, he  (1969,  For h i s  stipulated  t h a t u n i t t r a v e l times on each l i n k v a r y i n a s p e c i f i e d manner with the amount of investment i n the l i n k .  Then, most important,  he noted t h a t $ "investment per l i n k and s a v i n g s per l i n k , v a r y from l i n k t o l i n k " .  But as w e l l as these d i s p a r i t i e s , t h e r e  are o f t e n v e r y d i f f e r e n t i n c r e a s e s i n p u b l i c w e l f a r e from l a r a l l o c a t i o n s t o roads, communications, r e c r e a t i o n areas, and so on.  simi-  power development,  I t cannot be expected t h a t  r e g i o n s w i l l a t t r a c t investment from elsewhere  sub-  (given suitable  economic c o n d i t i o n s ) i n some constant r e l a t i o n t o the p u b l i c investment i n t r a n s p o r t i n f r a s t r u c t u r e .  1  Investment, p r o d u c t i o n ,  p r i c i n g and marketing d e c i s i o n s w i l l be i n f l u e n c e d by a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f d i f f e r e n t k i n d s , and t h i s v a r i e s g r e a t l y f o r any g i v e n a l l o c a t i o n of investment.  F u r t h e r , the e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f  an a l l o c a t i o n t o one s u b - r e g i o n might adjustments  i n other sub-regions.  depend on investments  and  A very simple example of  t h i s i s the dependence of p r i v a t e investment i n Sukunka R i v e r c o a l mining on p u b l i c investment i n p o r t f a c i l i t i e s i n o t h e r sub-regions.  In the Denike model (see r e f . 7 t l ) ,  the p u b l i c  investment ought to be c r e d i t e d t o the sub-region c o n t a i n i n g the dependent a c t i v i t y .  164 7.3  LINK CHARACTERISTICS OF TRUCK COST SAVINGS The t o t a l cost f o r a 1971  l i n k s o f 1952 1952 Big  was $2032j  and i n 1971,  sum);  i n 1962,  t r u c k moving over a l l the i t was $1854 (91% o f the  i t was $1693 ( 8 3 $ ) .  R e p l a c i n g the  Bend and Cascade-Rossland r o u t e s by the new l i n k s ,  a 1971  gives  sum o f $1629 (80$). Some r o u t e s have b e n e f i t t e d more than o t h e r s (see  Table XIX). TABLE XIX (1971  IMPROVEMENTS IN TRUCK OPERATING COSTS c o s t s as % o f 1952 c o s t s , u s i n g new l i n k s ) Complete Route  $  Vancouver to F i e l d  70  Vancouver t o Crows Nest  84  Cache Creek to P r i n c e George  86  P r i n c e George t o Dawson Crk.  78  P r i n c e George t o Pr.Rupert  78  Keremeos t o Sicamous  83  Cranbrook t o Golden  86  C e r t a i n l y the 401 and Rogers Pass a d d i t i o n s to the Trans-Canada Highway have shown up s i g n i f i c a n t l y ;  but the other  improvements  to t h i s r o u t e are not so pronounced, because o f the i n c r e a s i n g d e n s i t y o f t r a f f i c a b s o r b i n g some o f the g a i n s .  With constant  l e v e l s o f t r a f f i c f l o w over the p e r i o d , savings on t h i s route would have appeared about 5$ g r e a t e r .  S i m i l a r l y , the Okanagan  route would have been about 80$ i n s t e a d o f 8 3 $ .  I t i s obvious  from the t a b l e t h a t the r o u t e s which have had major r e c o n s t r u c t i o n  165 (Nthn. T r a n s - p r o v i n c i a l , John H a r t ) , have shown much g r e a t e r savings  than those undergoing p a r t i a l improvement,  (Sthn.  Trans-provincial). Figures 19, provided  by the  20,  21,  22 and  23 s e t out the q u a n t i t i e s  simulation of truck costs.  Generally  the  weighting f a c t o r s used were s a t i s f a c t o r y , as they gave r e s u l t s from the c u r r e n t , v e r i f i a b l e data which are not by o b e r v a t i o n s  i n the f i e l d .  The  contradicted  g e n e r a l l y lower-than-observed  speeds (see Table XVII) are perhaps due  to the  simplified  mechanics o f the s i m u l a t i o n , which a p p l i e s the r e s t r a i n i n g f a c t o r s c o n s e c u t i v e l y to the base speeds (see Appendix I I I ) . More r e a l i s t i c a l l y ,  there  where the width f a c t o r was f a c t o r s occurred, when other general  1952  not a p p l i e d when c e r t a i n g r a d i e n t  or where volume f a c t o r s should not have a p p l i e d  f a c t o r s occurred,  impression  and  so on.  For 1952  i s t h a t they are too low,  the inadequate data and period.  should have been a c u t - o f f l e v e l ,  u n c e r t a i n map  costs,  probably due  to  i n t e r p r e t a t i o n f o r that  Probably road widths were r e a l l y more r e s t r i c t i v e i n  than suggested i n t h i s s i m u l a t i o n .  P a r t s o f the o l d road,  which are s t i l l to be seen between Cache Creek and the F r a s e r Canyon, and along speeds and  Kamlops, i n  the North Thompson, suggest t h a t  c o s t s would have been much more s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t e d  than was  i n d i c a t e d by the map  doubling  o f the p e n a l t y  descriptions.  i n c l u d e d , and  (As an example, a  f o r width r e s t r i c t i o n s would have  i n c r e a s e d the t o t a l c o s t s by about 2%).  A l s o , had  curves been  c r i t i c a l g r a d i e n t s more a c c u r a t e l y measured, then  the c o s t s a g a i n s t the 1952 greater.  the  In favour  network would have been r e a l t i v e l y  of the s i m u l a t i o n ,  i t can be  s a i d that  the  166 c o s t s as i n d i c a t o r s a r e s a t i s f a c t o r y , t h a t the same data and f a c t o r s have been used c o n s i s t e n t l y , and t h a t the r e s u l t s do discriminate rain.  between l i n k s o f d i f f e r e n t s i z e , type and t e r -  They a r e perhaps more r e l i a b l e f o r comparisons o f l i n k s  within years,  r a t h e r than a c r o s s  d i f f e r i n g q u a l i t y o f the data For a g e n e r a l  time p e r i o d s ,  because o f the  input.  i n d i c a t i o n o f the r e l a t i v e c o s t on  v a r i o u s l i n k s , the 1 9 7 1 c o s t s have been d i v i d e d by d i s t a n c e t o give a t r u c k c o s t p e r m i l e average f i g u r e , (see F i g . 24). The l i n k s h a v i n g f e r r i e s o r mountain passes show up c l e a r l y as very  c o s t l y per mile.  On mountainous s t r e t c h e s , there  combined e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s i n g l a p s e d time and f u e l The  i s the  consumption.  a v e r a g i n g o f l i n k c o s t s obscures the f a c t t h a t only some  s e c t i o n s a r e severes  a f i n e r breakdown o f l i n k s would h e l p t o  i d e n t i f y these s e c t i o n s . 40 cents  That so many average c o s t s f a l l  about  i s not s u r p r i s i n g - t h i s c o s t i s the outcome o f a  running speed around 40mph., which i s q u i t e c o n s i s t e n t with 2 observed speeds i n these c o n d i t i o n s .  As the average speed  i n c r e a s e s , the d r i v e r c o s t p e r m i l e decreases, but f u e l and r e p a i r costs increase. 401  F o r example, savings  i n time on the  and Cariboo Highways o f f s e t the e x t r a running c o s t s a t  higher  speeds.  So i f the d r i v e r ' s c o s t continues  to increase  f a s t e r than other f a c t o r c o s t s , the importance o f a h i g h average running speed and the avoidance o f congestion  w i l l be enhanced.  There may be now a need f o r by-passes, p a r t i c u l a r l y around Penticton,  and widening between Cranbrook and Kimberley, t o  reduce c o s t s due t o congestion.  Whether r e d u c t i o n o f running  c o s t s i n these areas i s the most b e n e f i c i a l o b j e c t i v e , i s a  168 separate q u e s t i o n . Because  d r i v e r s can s w i t c h to a mileage r a t e as they  p r e f e r , there i s an e x t r a c o m p l i c a t i o n i n the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of o v e r - t h e - r o a d c o s t s . it  In the f o l l o w i n g diagram  (Fig. 25),  i s assumed t h a t d r i v e r s w i l l take the h i g h e r r a t e where  applicable}  a l s o , r e p a i r s are s e t a t 120 per m i l e up t o 3 5 m p h . ,  then become 1 3 0 .  There i s no p e n a l t y f o r e x t r a consumption  on  grades, (though i n r e a l i t y , a t r u c k a v e r a g i n g 2 0 - 2 5 m p h . i s a l most c e r t a i n l y consuming more than p r o p o r t i o n a l amounts of fuel). F i g , 25 i- Running Costs f o r Large Truck, a t I n c r e a s i n g  Sourcei  20 30 40 50 S y n t h e s i z e d from Highway Research Board c i t e d i n ch. 6 .  Speed  60mph literature  F i g . 25 shows t h a t i n c r e a s i n g speed beyond 40-45mph. p r o v i d e s no immediate  s a v i n g s , except t o the d r i v e r i n the form o f i n -  creased l e i s u r e a t the same wages.  Perhaps a l s o the s h i p p e r s  and r e c e i v e r s b e n e f i t from the s h o r t e r t r a n s i t time o f goods.  169 But the r e a l g a i n i s i n the i n c r e a s e d u t i l i z a t i o n o f v e h i c l e and  d r i v e r , which depends mainly on the supply  the c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f end-point f a c i l i t i e s . might be made w i l l be d i s c u s s e d The discernible.  i n the next  o f cargo and  How adjustments chapter.  i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r p r i v a t e c a r u s e r s a r e not e a s i l y The s i m u l a t i o n i s not d i r e c t l y r e l e v a n t t o p r i -  vate c a r s , s i n c e other f a c t o r s and a d i f f e r e n t e v a l u a t i o n o f time would be r e q u i r e d o f i t . The i n f l u e n c e o f grades w i l l be l e s s f o r cars than f o r t r u c k s , as w i l l the d e v i a t i o n from f r e e speeds a t i n t e r s e c t i o n s and curves. the  'felt*  As f r e e speed i s approached,  c o s t o f other t r a f f i c and c o n g e s t i o n  more a c u t e .  becomes much  Because f u e l i s a l a r g e r component o f t o t a l running  c o s t s f o r p r i v a t e c a r s , i n c r e a s i n g speeds and consumption may appear more s i g n i f i c a n t .  But r u n n i n g c o s t f o r p r i v a t e c a r s i s  not a g r e a t l y important item when weighted a g a i n s t  such  as motel and campground charges, meals and i n i t i a l  cost o f  vehicle.  Saving i n a c c i d e n t  c o s t i s something due t o the soc-  i e t y as a whole r a t h e r than b e i n g Generally,  f e l t by any p a r t i c u l a r user.  f o r p r i v a t e c a r s , the response t o road improvement  w i l l come more from the sense o f comfort, speed, s a f e t y , b i l i t y and convenience, r a t h e r than from money The very value  things  simple,  relia-  savings.^  f i g u r e s presented so f a r i n t h i s chapter g i v e a even u n r e a l i s t i c , view o f the network.  The t o t a l  o f a l l l i n k s i n 1971 ($1693) i s f o r the use o f each l i n k  once by one t r u c k , whereas c e r t a i n l i n k s a r e i n f a c t used much more f r e q u e n t l y than o t h e r s .  So a s m a l l e r degree o f improve-  ment on a v i t a l l i n k , say, Kamloops t o Cache Creek, m u l t i p l i e d many times by the degree o f use, can supply  a larger total  170 b e n e f i t than a g r e a t l y improved  p e r i p h e r a l l i n k which i s used  r e l a t i v e l y i n f r e q u e n t l y , say, T e r r a c e to H a z e l t o n . t i o n s h i p s are c o n s i d e r e d i n the f o l l o w i n g  7.4  Such r e l a -  section.  LINK CHANGES IN A NETWORK CONTEXT D e s c r i p t i o n s so f a r r e f e r t o the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f  links.  I t was  shown e a r l i e r t h a t major paths o f the network  a f f e c t these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and t h a t network change c a n s d i f f e r g r e a t l y from l i n k change due t o the same investment.  There are  two a s p e c t s o f network behaviour which i n f l u e n c e the e v a l u a t i o n of  a link.  One  i s i t s frequency o f use i n r e a l terms, i t s  t r a f f i c f l o w r e l a t i v e to o t h e r s * .  Savings m u l t i p l i e d by f l o w  gives a f a i r i n d i c a t i o n of a l i n k ' s c o n t r i b u t i o n to current network q u a l i t y .  The second a s p e c t i s i t s frequency of occur-  rence i n minimum paths between a l l p a i r s o f nodes i n the n e t work.  T h i s measure shows how  p o t e n t i a l l y important or v i t a l  the l i n k i s t o the whole system.  For example, the M e r r i t t to  P r i n c e t o n l i n k i s b u s i e r than the P r i n c e George to Chetwynd l i n k , according to t r a f f i c i n t h a t i t j o i n s up two I t was  counts}  y e t the l a t t e r i s more v i t a l  sub-systems.  noted e a r l i e r i n the chapter t h a t the  s a v i n g f o r one t r u c k was  about 18%.  average  More a c c u r a t e f i g u r e s on  t r u c k movements would a l l o w the c a l c u l a t i o n o f gross£,savings over the whole network.  From the patchy s t a t i s t i c s  available,  an a r b i t r a r y p r o p o r t i o n o f 5% has been a p p l i e d t o the summer traffie  counts, t o d e r i v e an e s t i m a t e o f heavy t r u c k t r a f f i c  on the 27 l i n k s which were s e l e c t e d i n Table IX and XVIII as  171 r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f the whole network. l i n k s showed a s a v i n g of 22%;  One  w e i g h t i n g the l i n k s by the  estimated t r u c k t r a f f i c gave a s a v i n g o f 63% o v e r a l l . average  d a i l y summer s a v i n g on the 27 l i n k s was  t h a t i s , a s a v i n g i n 1971  The average  (70 l i n k s ) was  The  about $ 4 7 0 0 0  -  compared w i t h running the same  number o f t r u c k s , w i t h the same f a c t o r faces.  27  t r u c k over the  c o s t s , over 1952  sur-  d a i l y summer s a v i n g on the whole network  about $ 7 2 0 0 0 .  The Golden-Revelstoke  l i n k alone  c o n t r i b u t e d about $ 2 3 0 0 0 , and the 401 freeway and Kelowna Bridge about $4000 each.  A c o n s e r v a t i v e estimate o f the  annual  savings t o heavy t r u c k s on the i n t e r i o r trunk network i s $ 1 2 $15  million.  4  Some examples o f change i n v a l u e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y have been taken from the network t o show the importance paths.  The network was  of major  e n l a r g e d to make i t more complete,  r e f l e c t more c l o s e l y the l i k e l y use of v a r i o u s r o u t e s .  to  The  nodes o f Edmonton, Jasper, Banff, Calgary, F o r t Macleod and Rest-of-Canada U.S.  were added to the e a s t :  and Rest-of-Ameriea  the nodes o f R e s t - o f -  were added t o the southern i n t e r i o r .  The e f f e c t , s t r u c t u r a l l y , was  t o i n c r e a s e the importance  of  i n t e r i o r nodes r e l a t i v e to the Vancouver node, and t o o f f s e t the e f f e c t o f the many nodes from P r i n c e Rupert George.  F i n e r adjustments  t r a f f i c weightings,  c o u l d be made with p o p u l a t i o n or  Costs on the e x t e r n a l l i n k s have been  estimated, not s i m u l a t e d : been d e l i b e r a t e l y  to P r i n c e  t h e i r degree o f improvement has  exaggerated.  Using the expanded network, v a l u e d a c c e s s i b i l i t y o f the same nodes as appeared  i n Table X has been c a l c u l a t e d  -  172 t h a t i s , the c o s t o f r e a c h i n g a l l o t h e r network nodes from each o f the named nodes.  directly  Table XX emphasises the remote-  ness o f P r i n c e Rupert, and the p r o x i m i t y o f Kamloops and Rossland- T r a i l ,  to the network as a whole. TABLE XX  * SHIMBEL ACCESSIBILITY'* IN 1 9 7 1 1952 surfaces  Node  TRUCK COSTS  1971 surfaces  1971 as % of 1952  Vancouver  14882  11908  80**  Kamloops  10024  7981  80**  P r i n c e Rupert  28263  21140  75  Edmonton  20550  13287  65  Rossland-Trail  12327  9679  78  F o r t Maeleod  17447  12074  69  (6)  103493  76069  73.6  Total  * Shimbel a c c e s s i b i l i t y s c o r e s a r e found by adding up the c o s t o f moving from the named node, t o a l l o t h e r nodes i n the network, u s i n g minimum p a t h s . The number o f t r i p s i s equal t o ( n - 1 ) nodes. ** Notei c o s t s f o r Vancouver and Kamloops would have been about 2% lower had c o n g e s t i o n f a c t o r s which a p p l i e d i n the l a t e r year, been i g n o r e d . These c o s t s are i n d i c a t i v e o n l y - there i s a danger o f g i v i n g too mueh a u t h o r i t y to the t r u c k c o s t estimates by a p p l y i n g them too  s p e c i f i c a l l y i n t a b l e s and m a t r i c e s . In chapter 5»5» the importance o f the Slocan, Yellow-  head and North Thompson l i n k s was p o i n t e d out;  and F i g .  22  showed the g r e a t e f f e c t on c o s t s o f the improved Trans-Canada l i n k s east o f Almon Arm.  Because o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e p o s i t i o n s  r e l a t i v e t o these r o u t e s , Kamloops and Edmonton have b e n e f i t e d  173 more than Vancouver and R o s s l a n d - T r a i l .  That R o s s l a n d - T r a i l  and P r i n c e Rupert showed a g r e a t e r degree o f s a v i n g s o v e r a l l , than Kamloops and Vancouver,  i s due t o the d i f f e r i n g degree  of improvement on l i n k s a d j a c e n t t o them. from Vancouver began w i t h the sequence - 99i  A l l o f the paths  8 8 - 90 - 9 1 o r 8 8 - 9 1  from Kamloops, they were mostly 9 0 -, o r 9 2 - (see  Fig. 2 2 ) .  But from R o s s l a n d - T r a i l , the paths began w i t h 8 2 -  4 4 , o r w i t h 8 8 - . A l l paths from P r i n c e Rupert began w i t h the  sequence  7 1 - 7 5 - 8 2 - 8 3 - 8 3 - 7 8 .  Improvements i n  A l b e r t a were exaggerated, so t h a t paths from Edmonton began with 5 5 - , 7 0 - , or 75-5 or 8 0 - .  and from F o r t Macleod, they were 6 7 - ,  Hence there appeared t o be a g r e a t improvement i n the  •centrality*  o f those two nodes.  The p o i n t i s , t h a t the de-  gree o f improvement t o the t o t a l network s u p p l i e d by a l i n k , can depend g r e a t l y on the l i n k ' s p o s i t i o n r e l a t i v e t o paths i n the system, and on the ' s i z e ' o f the node i t connects.  7.5  MINIMUM PATHS IN THE NETWORK In o r d e r t o examine t h e statement t h a t the g a i n  achieved by an investment depends on where i t i s p l a c e d i n the network,  i t i s necessary t o use the s i m u l a t e d t r u c k c o s t s i n  d e s i g n a t i n g minimum paths.  R e a l i s t i c e s t i m a t e s are now i n s e r -  ted  There i s no i n s i s t e n c e t h a t the  f o r the A l b e r t a l i n k s .  c a l c u l a t e d paths are g o i n g t o be f o l l o w e d by each t r u c k , i f the s i m u l a t e d c o s t s a r e t r u e .  even  There may be good reasons f o r  t a k i n g more 'devious* paths, such as a v o i d i n g d i f f i c u l t y i n w i n t e r c o n d i t i o n s , l o n g e r r o u t e s b u t f a s t e r average speed t o  174 a v o i d congestion, p a r t - l o a d d e l i v e r y or pick-up, and p r e f e r r e d meal or o v e r n i g h t s t o p s .  I t i s one  o f the p r e c a r i o u s assump-  t i o n s i n network measures, t h a t users* paths w i l l be with c a l c u l a t e d The  identical  paths.  c a l c u l a t i o n of minimum paths, a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n -  d i c e s and l i n k importance s c o r e s , was  done by means of a com-  p u t e r programme d e r i v e d from K i s s l i n g ' s work a t M c G i l l University  (1966),  and developed  by R. Whitaker and K. Denike o f the  Geography Department a t U.B.C. put w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s  Only a s m a l l p a r t o f the  out-  thesis.  F o r s i m p l e r d e s c r i p t i o n of change, 15 nodes out o f the 59 used i n the network have been s e l e c t e d t o r e p r e s e n t the main t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g a r e a s .  Table XXI  s e t s out  the  Shimbel i n d i c e s f o r each o f the s e l e c t e d nodes - t h a t i s , the c o s t o f r e a c h i n g a l l o t h e r 58 nodes by the s h o r t e s t path. The q u a n t i t i e s d i f f e r s l i g h t l y from those i n Table XX because o f the adjustments to the l i n k s i n A l b e r t a .  A g a i n the c e n t r a -  l i t y o f some nodes (Kamloops, Kelowna, R e v e l s t o k e ) , and remoteness of o t h e r s ( P r i n c e Rupert, sized.  Dawson Creek), are empha-  These are p o t e n t i a l f i g u r e s only, and do not  a c t u a l movements between nodes.  the  reflect  But even so, t h i s r e p r e s e n t a -  t i o n o f the network as a b u i l d - u p o f paths r a t h e r than o f l i n k s , g i v e s a t r u e r p i c t u r e of improvement - the average s a v i n g i s now  Z6fo, as compared w i t h 18% shown by the simple sum  links. accounts  o f the  The r e p e a t e d counting o f some v a s t l y improved l i n k s f o r the l a r g e r o v e r a l l g a i n - such as the Rogers Pass,  Kelowna-Penticton, Yellowhead Highway.  Salmo-Creston, Vernon-South Slocan, and Improvement has been spread  unequally,  the  175 TABLE XXI SHIMBEL INDEX SCORES FOR SELECTED NODES  1952 surfaces  Node  1971 surfaces  %  1 9 7 1 -r 1952  Vancouver  15358  12274  80  Kamloops  11068  8000  72  Kelowna  11056  8386  76  Osoyoos  11419  8908  78  Rossland-Trail  12402  9799  79  Nelson  12496  75  Creston  13883  9739 10390  75  Cranbrook  14382  10260  71  Fort  17218  12047  70  11219  Revelstoke  16709 11966  67 74  Edmonton  19487  72  Dawson Creek  19413  13943 15481  P r i n c e George  15394  10717  70  Prince  28231  20652  73  230932  170671  73.9  link:  175814  76  " :  171675  74.3  177470  77  172696  75  Macleod  Calgary  Rupert  Total T o t a l , without Yellowhead Total,  without N. Thompson  Total,  without both these l i n k s :  T o t a l , without S l o c a n L i n k  mainly because  :  8856  80  o f the p r o x i m i t y o f the chosen nodes t o some o f  these l i n k s , p a r t i c u l a r l y C a l g a r y and P r i n c e George.  T h i s same  phenomenon was noted i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h Table XX, i n the previous  section. I t can be noted from Table XXI t h a t the Yellowhead  l i n k has been more 'important' s t r u c t u r a l l y than the North Thompson.  T h i s i s due t o the number o f nodes west o f P r i n c e George  176 which would use paths a l o n g t h i s l i n k i n t o A l b e r t a , R e s t - o f Canada, and even i n t o the E a s t Kootenays.  The North Thompson  i s one o f t h r e e or f o u r a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t r a f f i c from B.C. to Edmonton and Jasper,  nodes  The s t r o n g e f f e c t o f the p r o v i s i o n o f  the Vernon t o South S l o c a n l i n k i s a l s o shown up i n the t a b l e . The importance o f l i n k s can be i n d i c a t e d by t h e i r quency o f occurrence i n these p o t e n t i a l minimum paths?  fre-  frequency  i s here a measure o f s t r u c t u r e , not o f a c t u a l usage, and i s v e r y much dependent  on the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f nodes about the network.  For example, the Cascade-Grand  Forks l i n k s c o r e s h i g h because i t  j o i n s one c l u s t e r o f nodes (Okanagan) w i t h another c l u s t e r Kootenays),  (West  The changes i n l i n k importance s c o r e s are s e t out  i n Table XXII.  In both y e a r s , the two l i n k s n o r t h and e a s t o f  Cache Creek were the most important  structurally.  TABLE XXII LINK OCCURRENCE IN ALL PATHS (Number o f times a l i n k appears i n a l l the minimum paths between a l l p a i r s o f nodes) Link Cache C r . - C l i n $ o n Cache Cr.-Kamloops Kamloops-Salmon Arm Revelstoke-Golden Penticton-Kelowna Osoyoos-Kaleden Keremeos-Kaleden Cascade-Grand Forks Nelson-Lake-Creston Kimberley-Wasa J n . Wasa Jn.-Radium J n . Tete Jaune-Jasper R i c h t e r Pass Yellowhead (Y) Slocan (S) Creston-Salmo North Thompson (NT) Hudson's Hope  1952 559 535 247 253 427 512 149 423 305 157 159 58 0 0 0 0 0 0  1971 434 418 193 198 222 179 29 187 0 34 263 199 102 176 150 212 73 82  NT. 462 427 175 228 217 173 30 190 0 34 274 184 102 184 145 223 0 82  1971, without. NT..Y. Y. 578 562 322 353 218 173 31 190 0 34 246 58 102 0 172 241 0 82  580 564 278 283 222 179 29 187 0 34 235 63 102 0 177 230 83 82  s. 434 418 199 211 357 314 29 314 b 34 278 201 102 176 0 205 71 82  177 The r e - r o u t i n g o f p o t e n t i a l t r a f f i c  i s now  shown to  have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on nodes and l i n k s f a r removed from the  l i n k a c t u a l l y d e t e r m i n i n g the adjustments.  The  interde-  pendence o f investment a l l o c a t i o n s becomes obvious: W i l l s ( 1 9 7 1 ) put i t , they a r e "shocks t o the whole  o r , as system".  A c c o r d i n g t o the 1952  network, ' t r a f f i c ' from P r i n c e George  to  came down through the Okanagan and then  the E a s t Kootenays  along the Southern T r a n s - p r o v i n c i a l Highway. was  By 1 9 7 1 ,  this  d i r e c t e d down the Yellowhead, through A l b e r t a , and south  through Radium.  T h i s adjustment, p l u s the S l o c a n l i n k , have  g r e a t l y reduced p r e s s u r e on the Okanagan and No.  3  highways.  The North Thompson has d i v e r t e d some ' t r a f f i c ' which would have used the Trans-Ganada Highway.  The Yellowhead i s a g a i n shown  as h a v i n g had a g r e a t e r s t r u c t u r a l e f f e c t than the North Thompson.  I t would serve paths between those nodes west of P r i n c e  George, and those south of Banff and as f a r west as Golden Creston;  and  whereas the North Thompson has o n l y t h r e e nodes t o  the  e a s t , some o f which are reached through B a n f f and C a l g a r y .  For  the same reason, the North Thompson l i n k o c c u r s i n fewer  paths than the Hudson's Hope l i n k , which supports a l l the ' t r a f f i c ' which would move between F o r t Nelson - F o r t  St.John  and a l l the nodes west o f C r e s t o n . The g r e a t e f f e c t o f the S l o c a n l i n k on p o t e n t i a l t r a f f i c i s due t o the f a c t t h a t i t l i n k s up l a r g e of  the network.  sub-systems  The investment i n t h i s l i n k , o r i g i n a l l y t o  h e l p i n h y d r o - e l e c t r i c development,  may  w e l l pay o f f i n the  l o n g r u n by d i v e r t i n g t r a f f i c from o t h e r l i n k s where r e c o n s t r u c t i o n and expansion would prove r a t h e r c o s t l y .  Similarly,  178 the Salmo-Creston whole system, ferries  l i n k has become a v e r y important p a r t o f the  and has taken the p r e s s u r e o f f Kootenay Lake  (see Table X X I I I ) . TABLE XXIII DIVERSION OF TRAFFIC FROM KOOTENAY LAKE FERRY ( a f t e r 1964 opening of Salmo-Creston l i n k )  Year  $ Maintenance, a l l f e r r i e s i n Nelson-Creston d i s t r i c t  Total Vehicles on f e r r y  1962-3  186000  369000  I963-4  141000  341000  1964-5  890OO  289000  Source:  Annual  Reports, M i n i s t e r o f Highways, V i c t o r i a ,  B.C.  The d e s c r i p t i o n o f s t r u c t u r a l change has r e f e r r e d to p o t e n t i a l t r a f f i c only. l a r g e degree  I t i s obvious t h a t there has been a  of i n t e g r a t i o n o f the network, from the r e d u c t i o n s  i n the number o f l i n k s r e q u i r e d t o get from node t o node.  But  to put these changes i n a t r u e r l i g h t , the 14 most important • l i n k s ' o f the network i n 1971 t h e i r 1971  have been r a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o  summer t r a f f i c flow, (see Table XXIV).  , Table XXIV shows t h a t o n l y i n the Okanagan and a l o n g the Trans-Canada e a s t o f Cache Creek do s t r u c t u r a l paths  and  l i n k importance  with  measures correspond to any marked degree  the r e a l use as measured by summer t r a f f i c f l o w s . t i o n e d i n chapter 5» i n c o n s i d e r i n g Burton's use  As was men(1962) of  s t r u c t u r a l measures to i d e n t i f y important l i n k s i n the highway system o f Northern O n t a r i o , the l i n k frequency measure can be a d e c e p t i v e i n d i c a t o r , a t the mercy of a p a r t i c u l a r t i o n and s e l e c t i o n o f nodes and l i n k s .  distribu-  However, i t g i v e s a  179 TABLE XXIV RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LINK OCCURRENCE AND ACTUAL TRAFFIC Occurrence Rank Range  Link CacheC-Pr.Geo.  1  434358  CacheC.-Kaml.  2  418  Pr.G.-Hzelt.  3  364220  Kami.-Vernon  4  Radium-Wasa.  5 6  297 263  Kaled.-Vernon  T r a f f i c as Traffie,1971 % of busiest Rank Link l i n k , 1971 31-20 47 17-8 19 20  246216  1  Van.-Hope  2  Pent,-Kelowna  3  Lytt.-Cache C.  4  Kaled.-Pentic.  67-40  \ 5 6  Hope-Lytt. Sica.-Revel.  7 8  230  18  6  Cache-Kami.  224  51  8  Kaml.-S. Arm  221  17  8  Revel.-Golden  Osoy.-Cascade  9 10  215187  15  10  Kelowna-Vernon  Salmo-Crest.  11  212  10  11  Princet,-Kerem.  Yahk-Crest.  12  211  20  12  Gold.-Banff  Revel.-Golden  13 14  198  40  13  S.Arm-Sica.  193  40  14  Cache-Clint.  Yahk-Cranbrook Sicam.-Revelst. Cranb.-Wasa(95)  Kami.-S.Arm  u s e f u l d e s c r i p t i o n o f p o t e n t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n about the network, which p r o v i d e s a d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e current t r a f f i c  counts.  F o r example, t r a f f i c  would appear n o t t o ' j u s t i f y * the Yellowhead l i n k ;  than t h a t o f f e r e d by counts a t p r e s e n t  the huge investment t h a t went i n t o  but the l i n k importance measures show i t s  v i t a l r o l e i n terms o f s t r u c t u r e and p o t e n t i a l t r a f f i c .  7.6  THE CHAPTER REVIEWED T h i s chapter has condensed a l o t o f generated data t o  a s e r i e s o f maps and t a b l e s .  D e s c r i p t i o n o f the a c t u a l data has  180 been d e l i b e r a t e l y kept t o a minimum, f o r two r e a s o n s .  The  output o f the s i m u l a t i o n should n o t be used as i f i t i s d e f i n i t i v e , s i n c e t h e r e i s some doubt about the r o u t e d e s c r i p t i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y o f the base year ( 1 9 5 2 ) .  But a l s o , the main i n -  t e n t i o n o f the chapter was t o use those i n d i c a t i v e c o s t s t o e x p l o r e some measures and p e r s p e c t i v e s p r o v i d e d by the network context. L i n k investments can n o t be r a t e d simply by t h e i r t o t a l cost, or cost per mile.  There i s g r e a t v a r i a b i l i t y i n  the r e l a t i o n s h i p between d o l l a r s spent, f a c i l i t i e s bought, and immediate g a i n a c h i e v e d .  F i g . 23 gave an i n t e r e s t i n g view o f  c o s t per u n i t o f g a i n on each l i n k ;  but the 'costs* would be  v e r y much a l t e r e d i f the degree o f use were added i n t o the calculations. Nor should the l i n k c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s be c o n s i d e r e d for  themselves a l o n e .  Some e x t r a user c o s t s o r s a v i n g s on a  p a r t i c u l a r l i n k might be due t o changes o c c u r r i n g  elsewhere.  There i s an interdependence o f investments i n terms o f paths and o f adjustments  over time.  There i s an interdependence o f  t r a f f i c r o u t i n g , as was shown by the output o f the minimum path calculations. A point-to-point evaluation of a l i n k i t s r e a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o a network. showed an improvement o f o n l y 2 2 $ ;  misunderstands  The sum o f l i n k savings when a d j u s t e d t o take  account o f t r a f f i c flow, the same l i n k s showed a s a v i n g o f 6 3 $ . The network i s r e a l l y a b u i l d - u p o f paths r a t h e r than a b u i l d up o f l i n k s . L i n k s v a l u e d by t h e i r c u r r e n t use gave a good i n d i c a -  181 t i o n o f r e a l improvement i n the network.  Y e t the c o u n t i n g o f  l i n k s ' occurrence i n p o s s i b l e paths o f the network p r o v i d e d an i n d i c a t i o n of p o t e n t i a l gain. to the whole system.  I t showed how v i t a l a l i n k i s  T h i s measure has to be taken t o g e t h e r w i t h  a f l o w measure, f o r the two w i l l r a r e l y correspond.  The former  i s s u b j e c t t o the s e l e c t i o n and s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f nodes and l i n k s i  the l a t t e r i s s u b j e c t t o the c u r r e n t arrangement  and ' s i z e ' o f t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g a r e a s .  They would correspond  o n l y i f a l l nodes were o f equal t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g  capacity,  and i f a l l minimum paths were the same as the a c t u a l paths o f users. The r e d u c t i o n i n the o v e r a l l t o t a l o f l i n k s i n a l l p o t e n t i a l paths showed t h a t the network has become more i n t e g r a t e d over the p e r i o d .  S t r u c t u r a l l y , the Yellowhead and S l o c a n  l i n k s have c o n t r i b u t e d most towards t h i s . The unequal g a i n s i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y f o r some nodes show t h a t the a b i l i t y o f t r a f f i c t o take advantage o f some v a s t l y improved r o u t e s v a r i e s from p l a c e t o p l a c e .  I n o t h e r words,  the c o n t r i b u t i o n made by an improved l i n k t o the t o t a l network q u a l i t y depends every much on i t s p o s i t i o n r e l a t i v e t o through paths and r e l a t i v e t o t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g a r e a s .  Some w e l l - u s e d  through r o u t e s were seen t o have had l a r g e r g a i n s than o t h e r s , because o f the f a v o u r a b l e sequence o f improved l i n k s . Removal o f some l i n k s from the a c t u a l network has shown t h e i r r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o network s t r u c t u r e and q u a l i t y , and the 'shocks' which they have passed on t o other  links.  182 A reasonable estimate o f the o v e r a l l g a i n i n heavyt r u c k r u n n i n g c o s t s was p r o v i d e d from the s i m u l a t i o n and summer t r a f f i c counts.  Some suggestions o f the r e a c t i o n s o f u s e r s t o  changed running c o s t s were o f f e r e d .  These w i l l be examined  more c l o s e l y i n the next chapter, and a c o r r o b o r a t i n g estimate of  improvement w i l l be approached from another  angle.  183 REFERENCES s 1 T h i s was done i n a m o d e l - b u i l d i n g study o f investment a l l o c a t i o n , a p p l i e d t o B.C., i n K. Denike, The Role o f Transp o r t a t i o n Investment i n Economic Development"! (1972). 2 See Table XVIII? a l s o Wagner and May ( i 9 6 0 ) . Starkie ( I 9 6 9 ) , p. 6 3 , r e p o r t e d t h a t a 1 9 6 5 survey o f a busy freeway i n U.K. d i s c o v e r e d a t y p i c a l r u n n i n g speed o f 40mph. f o r l a r g e trucks. 3  Winfrey and Z e l l n e r , NCHRP Report no. 1 2 2 , 1 9 7 1 , c h . 6 .  4 Two g r o s s assumptions a r e made herej f i r s t l y , t h a t there were no competing modes i n 1 9 5 * F o r example, the use o f t r a i n s t o by-pass the c o s t l y B i g Bend r o u t e i s d e l i b e r a t e l y i g n o r e d i n forming t h i s e s t i m a t e . A l s o , i t i s assumed t h a t weight and s i z e r e s t r i c t i o n s were the same then as now. 2  CHAPTER 8  THE VITAL CONCERNs  USE OF TIME AND COST SAVINGS  I t i s a b e l i e f c e n t r a l t o investment i n r o a d t i e s t h a t users*  savings  i n time, a c c i d e n t  facili-  costs, running costs,  equipment, and so on, w i l l g e n e r a l l y b r i n g g r e a t e r  efficiency  i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n , and r e l a t i v e l y lower c o s t s f o r producers, s h i p p e r s and consumers.  I n chapter 5, t h i s connec-  t i o n was a s s e r t e d i n a too g e n e r a l way. c o s t savings  The manner i n which  work through t r u c k o p e r a t i o n s  very i n d e t e r m i n a t e .  One needs t o r e g a r d  t o the economy i s  the equipment, degree  of u t i l i z a t i o n , f i x e d overhead c o s t s , v a r i a b l e overhead c o s t s , r u n n i n g c o s t s , d r i v e r c o s t , d e p r e c i a t i o n , competition, operation,  fleet  cargo supply and so on, as working p a r t s o f a mecha-  nism t h a t determines revenues, t o t a l c o s t s , p r o f i t a b i l i t y and tariffs. one  An exhaustive treatment o f t r u c k i n g o p e r a t i o n s  takes  i n t o the f i e l d o f b u s i n e s s management, an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t  the major problems are i n the 'overheads' r a t h e r than i n 'overthe-road' c o s t s . method ( 1 9 6 2 ) , The  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , one needs t o take F l e i s c h e r ' s  o f p u l l i n g apart the o p e r a t i o n s  highway r e s e a r c h l i t e r a t u r e has c o n f i n e d  o f j u s t one f i r m .  i t s e l f t o over-the-  road c o s t s , t o i d e n t i f y which c o s t s are a f f e c t e d by r o a d cond i t i o n s and t o what d e g r e e .  1  184  185 T a k i n g the s i m p l e s t  case o f an owner-operator, a  breakdown o f c o s t s can be made, as was done i n p. 13-14 o f the j o u r n a l , "Truck Canada", May, 1972. t r a i l e r , the f i x e d c o s t s  Using a $30000 t r u c k and  ( r e g i s t r a t i o n , insurance,  interest,  d e p r e c i a t i o n and bookkeeping) a r e about $10000 p e r y e a r . reasonable s a l a r y , 'paid* t o h i m s e l f , (5$)  i s $12000;  i s a reasonable r e t u r n on h i s investment.  A  and $1500  These t a r g e t  f i g u r e s a f f e c t the d e s i r e d revenue mileage t o be covered i n a year, on t o p o f which i s mileage covered w h i l e empty. 1964  survey by S t a t i s t i c s Canada,  about 35$.  I n the  the empty p r o p o r t i o n was  To cover 50000 revenue m i l e s p e r year - which i s  reasonable i n the l i g h t o f the 1964 survey f i n d i n g s and the expected l i f e o f v e h i c l e s - the t o t a l mileage w i l l be about 77000, w i t h t o t a l c o s t s about $38900.  ( i n c l u d i n g f u e l , r e p a i r s and t y r e s )  So the c o n t r a c t s which he e n t e r s  about $0.78 p e r m i l e .  i n t o must pay  Assuming an average payload o f 20 tons,  the d e s i r e d ton-mile revenue i s 3-9 cents, which l i e s  within  the range d i s c o v e r e d by t h e survey. The  example above pretends t h a t no t e r m i n a l ,  or d e l i v e r y c o s t s a r e borne by the owner-operator. of r e p a v i n g was  pick-up  The e f f e c t  s u r f a c e s , as used i n the s i m u l a t i o n i n Chapter 6,  a r e d u c t i o n i n r e p a i r s from 130 t o 120.  By i t s e l f ,  this  means only a 0.2 cent r e d u c t i o n i n the d e s i r e d c o n t r a c t p r i c e of t h i s o p e r a t o r . reduce p e r m i l e  Increased  speed over b e t t e r s u r f a c e s would  c o s t o f a l l items.  Neither  o f these changes  f o r paved roads was w e l l brought out by the s i m u l a t i o n , o f the g e n e r a l i t y o f d e s c r i p t i o n o f r o a d  surfaces.  because  186 The  $0.?8  p e r m i l e revenue i s an average  figure.  R e a l l y , the operator r e q u i r e s a much h i g h e r reward on 'headh a u l * c o n t r a c t s because o f the n e c e s s i t y o f u n d e r - c u t t i n g tariffs  t o g e t any *back-haul'  contracts.  The p a t t e r n o f  f r e i g h t movements i n B.C. makes f o r v e r y keen back-haul competition. Fig.  F i g u r e 26 shows the d i s p a r i t y i n f l o w s .  26 -  F r e i g h t Movements i n B.C. 1970  $ Revenues  Tons  REST OF B.C.  <  Sourcet  <  <  S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1970.  53-224$  3.7m.  <  F o r H i r e T r u c k i n g Survey,  Revenues from outward t r a f f i c from Vancouver a r e 2§- times  those  from inward t r a f f i c , whereas tons o f f r e i g h t a r e o n l y If- times greater.  The l e s s e r revenue p e r t o n f o r the inward  (average $ 7 . 5 5 as a g a i n s t  $12.68)  freight  i s due t o the nature  m o d i t i e s , and t o u n d e r - c u t t i n g o f t a r i f f charges.  o f com-  The f r e i g h t  outward from Vancouver c o n t a i n s a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f end  187 products per t o n ) :  ($25  ($38  per ton revenue) and g e n e r a l merchandise  whereas the inward f r e i g h t has a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n  of food products  ($10  per t o n ) , crude m a t e r i a l s ( $ 4 )  r i c a t e d m a t e r i a l s a t $11  per  and  fab-  ton.  In g e n e r a l , most t r u c k shipments o r i g i n a t e i n the Lower Mainland;  much o f the produce o f the I n t e r i o r , p a r t i c u -  l a r l y f o r e s t and m i n e r a l products,  i s served by  railways.  S p e c i a l i z e d o p e r a t i o n s - such as r e f r i g e r a t e d t r a i l e r s out the Lower Mainland or P r i n c e Rupert, or new or householders'  ear  distribution,  removal - are s e v e r e l y a f f e c t e d by the l a c k  of back-haul f r e i g h t .  So if_  the owner-operator r e f e r r e d to  e a r l i e r can capture more f r e i g h t , and reduce the empty t i o n t o , say,  of  20$,  propor-  then the r e q u i r e d average c o n t r a c t p r i c e i s  reduced to $ 0 . 6 3 per m i l e . Such an improvement due  to r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n i s perhaps  the major i n t e n t i o n of f l e e t - and -warehouse o p e r a t i o n s . only are pick-up  and d e l i v e r y c o s t s f o r the o p e r a t o r  Not  reduced  f o r them, but a l s o the o r g a n i z a t i o n o f f u l l l o a d s and the m i s a t i o n of space-weight r e l a t i o n s h i p s become p o s s i b l e . t i o n s i n w a i t i n g time and over-the-road a l l o w the f l e e t operator to achieve  time, t o g e t h e r ,  optiReduc-  can  g r e a t e r revenue mileage  from l e s s equipment, thereby r e d u c i n g h i s overhead f i x e d c o s t s . He might f u r t h e r a v o i d some of these  c o s t s i f he uses l e a s e d  equipment t o cover p e r i o d s of i n c r e a s e d a c t i v i t y or to handle l o a d s with p a r t i c u l a r h a n d l i n g or t r a i l i n g  requirements.  Where does the e f f e c t o f improved roads come i n ?  If  the road improvement a l l o w s the owner-operator to i n c r e a s e h i s speed from 31 to 3 5 m p h . , he w i l l be a b l e to cover 86000  miles  188 per year, working the same hours as b e f o r e , and g e t t i n g f r e i g h t as and when he i s a v a i l a b l e . becomes 56000$ his  A t 35% empty, h i s revenue mileage  and a f t e r adding the e x t r a f u e l and r e p a i r c o s t s ,  d e s i r e d c o n t r a c t p r i c e becomes $ 0 . 7 4 per m i l e . The  f l e e t o p e r a t o r u s i n g employed d r i v e r s , may  not  be  able to take f u l l advantage o f the time savings, s i n c e h i s d r i v e r s w i l l switch to the mileage r a t e o f pay above 32mph.» the operators*  g a i n w i l l then be i n the u t i l i z a t i o n o f equipment.  I f he has 10 v e h i c l e s and improved running  i s able to a d j u s t h i s s e r v i c e s to the  speeds, then he w i l l be able to cover the same  mileage with 9 v e h i c l e s o n l y .  So he avoids the e x t r a d e p r e c i a -  t i o n , i n t e r e s t , r e g i s t r a t i o n , insurance 10th.  truck.  and  d r i v e r c o s t o f the  With the same degree o f u t i l i z a t i o n  c o n t r a c t p r i c e c o u l d become $ 0 . 7 0 . the c a p i t a l f o r m e r l y due  He  (65%),  i s then able to i n v e s t  t o the t e n t h t r u c k i n warehouse, adver-  t i s i n g or l o c a l d e l i v e r y o p e r a t i o n s , which w i l l i n c r e a s e stabilize his freight  his  and  supply.  For a l a r g e r f l e e t o p e r a t o r ,  the p i c t u r e becomes more  complex - there are s c a l e economies a v a i l a b l e to c e r t a i n a s p e c t s of the o p e r a t i o n , but i n c r e a s i n g overheads may Economies w i l l probably  occur as w e l l .  appear i n the p u r c h a s i n g  of f u e l  and  equipment, f i n a n c i n g , r e p a i r and maintenance f a c i l i t i e s ,  ware-  housing,  and  s c h e d u l i n g , c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f types o f equipment  flexibility  of s e r v i c e .  in advertising, b i l l i n g , t o t a l space requirements.  I n c r e a s i n g c o s t s w i l l probably i n t r a - u r b a n c o l l e c t i o n and  d e l i v e r y , and  T h i s second group of c o s t s might  e v e n t u a l l y r e s u l t i n a h i g h e r degree o f use o f road and equipment and  appear  terminal  s t a f f , by c a p t u r i n g a g r e a t e r volume and more  189 r e g u l a r supply o f f r e i g h t f o r both d i r e c t i o n s o f each  trip.  I f an i n c r e a s e i n speed from 31 to 35mph. a l l o w s a r e d u c t i o n i n the c o n t r a c t p r i c e from $ 0 . 7 8 t o $ 0 . 7 0 ,  then i t  i s p o s s i b l e to make a v e r y g e n e r a l estimate of what t h i s means to the economy as a whole. of 1970  The S t a t i s t i c s Canada survey  p r o v i d e d i n f o r m a t i o n on tons c a r r i e d and  covered by  »for h i r e ' t r u c k s o n l y .  i n f o r m a t i o n r e l e v a n t to  Table XXV  summarizes the  B.C. TABLE  XXV  FOR-HIRE TRUCKS, FREIGHT MOVEMENTS - B.C.  Direction  r  ton-miles  Miles Tons each t o n (m)* c a r r i e d  1970  Cost per Cost per Annual t o n per t o n per Per ton savings savings trip trip $ mill.  B.C. to everywhere and from 1 8 . 5 everywhere.  264  10.30  9.24  1.06  19.6  Vancouver, t o everywhere and 11.0 from everywhere  320  12.48  11.20  1.28  14.1  Vancouver, to r e s t o f B.C. and from r e s t of B.C.  127  4.95  4.45  0.50  4.7  6.60  5.93  0.67  6.2  ^same, w i t h 15 t o n average payload. * ** *** Sourcest  9.3  m = millions a t 31 mph., 780 per m i l e , and 20 t o n payload a t 35 mph., 700 per m i l e , and 20 t o n payload S t a t i s t i c s Canada, F o r H i r e T r u c k i n g Survey. 1970. Savings f i g u r e s d e r i v e d from s i m u l a t i o n i n c h . 6 o f this thesis. The h i g h average d i s t a n c e s f o r the f i r s t  i n Table XXV  r e f l e c t the l o n g h a u l s to and from the  two  directions  Prairie  190 p r o v i n c e s and O n t a r i o p a r t i c u l a r l y .  Consequently,  the p o s s i b l e  savings due t o f a s t e r speeds appear much g r e a t e r than those f o r the f r e i g h t moving w i t h i n B.C. o n l y .  A l s o , the c o s t p e r  t o n p e r t r i p o f f r e i g h t w i t h i n B.C. i s r e l a t i v e l y low, most l i k e l y because o f the nature o f the goods.  Perhaps a l s o the  average payload o f 20 tons i s t o o h i g h f o r t r i p s w i t h i n B.C.j the apparent s a v i n g s become l a r g e r i f each t r i p i s s a i d t o c a r r y only 1 5 t o n s . The estimates i n the f i n a l column o f Table XXV complement and support those made i n s e c t i o n 4 o f chapter 7 .  The  p r e s e n t estimates a r e f o r a g i v e n change o f speed o n l y , by f o r hire trucks only. l e a s t 4 o r 5mph.  Many l i n k s have p r o v i d e d i n c r e a s e s o f a t i n the l a s t decade;  p r o v i d e d such i n c r e a s e s s i n c e 1 9 5 2 .  almost a l l o f them have As w e l l , t h e r e have been  s i g n i f i c a n t r e d u c t i o n s i n r e p a i r and t y r e c o s t s , and i n the u t l i z a t i o n o f equipment.  I t i s q u i t e l i k e l y then t h a t the  estimate o f annual savings o f $ 1 5 m i l l i o n i s r e a s o n a b l e , even c o n s e r v a t i v e - t h a t i s , the d i f f e r e n c e o f o p e r a t i n g these part i c u l a r 1 9 7 1 v e h i c l e s a t 1 9 7 1 c o s t s and w i t h the 1 9 7 1 i n d u s t r y s t r u c t u r e , over 1 9 5 2 s u r f a c e s .  REFERENCESj 1 Most o f the a n a l y s i s o f t r u c k i n g o p e r a t i o n s depends on the study o f F l e i s c h e r ( 1 9 6 2 ) , and on Adkins e t a l . ( 1 9 6 7 ) . 2 Cost f i g u r e s a r e taken from the "Truck Canada" a r t i c l e c i t e d , and from the S t a t i s t i c s Canada survey, ( 1 9 7 Q ) .  CHAPTER 9  CONCLUSIONS  9.1  THE APPROACH The d e s i r e t o examine the p a t t e r n o f investment  arose from a d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h the • c l a s s i c ' network anal y s e s , which c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y r e l a t e d change i n some measure o f t r a n s p o r t o r o f s p a t i a l arrangements t o change i n some economic i n d i c e s .  Whatever measures were used, o n l y i n a few  cases was t h e r e an attempt t o d e s c r i b e the d i r e c t i o n o f the relationship.  In the r e a l world, adjustments  i n the r e l a t i o n -  s h i p pass through a determining medium, here g e n e r a l i z e d as the 'investment d e c i s i o n ' .  The ' d e c i s i o n ' i n c l u d e s a s p e c t s  o f s o c i a l o b j e c t i v e s , o f f i c i a l p o l i c y , l o c a l concerns,  finan-  c i n g , c o - o p e r a t i n g a u t h o r i t i e s , and the t i m i n g and o r d e r o f projects.  Over a l o n g p e r i o d , a p a t t e r n and d e v i a t i o n s w i t h i n  i t were d i s c e r n i b l e as outcomes o f the investment  decision.  C o n c e n t r a t i n g on the investment d e c i s i o n and i t s outcome i n e v i t a b l y d i s p o s e s one t o f i n d cases o f f o u r k i n d s those which l e a d a c t i v i t y i n t o new areas 5  those which l a g i n  t h a t they connect up a l r e a d y developed a r e a s ;  those which a r e  r e q u i r e d t o a s s i s t i n o t h e r development p r o j e c t s ; which r e l i e v e c o n g e s t i o n around developed a r e a s .  191  and those This l a s t  192 k i n d might be vity,  considered  as l e a d i n g or l a g g i n g economic a c t i -  depending on the t i m i n g o f measurement of changes:  congestion  might ' f o r c e ' the p r o v i s i o n o f b e t t e r  facilities,  which might i n t u r n a s s i s t f u r t h e r economic growth. of t i m i n g has analyses,  not been adequately c o n s i d r e d  but i t i s one  The  i n the  issue  'classic*  of the v i r t u e s of the investment d e c i -  s i o n approach t h a t i t b r i n g s t h i s i s s u e i n t o the open. Such an approach shows investment i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n as a p o s i t i v e instrument i n p l a n n i n g . been o v e r - r a t e d ,  Sometimes i t s r o l e  but i t s l i m i t e d e f f e c t i v e n e s s has  c l e a r l y recognized  i n the l a s t decade.  has  been more  Investment i n f a c i l i -  t i e s can c o n f e r r e l a t i v e advantage on some areas or some a c t i v i t i e s , as i n d i c a t e d by the d i f f e r e n t i a l savings operating  c o s t s over the l i n k s of the B.C.  or delay of a p p a r e n t l y  i n truck  network.  necessary investment might be  The  absence  sometimes  regarded p o s i t i v e l y as w e l l , i f the o b j e c t i v e i s r e d u c t i o n urban growth or e q u a l i z a t i o n of  opportunity.  Some l a t e r s t u d i e s i n network a n a l y s i s , n o t a b l y of K i s s l i n g and  of  those  0 ' S u l l i v a n , have r e l a t e d types of economic  a c t i v i t y to d i f f e r e n t a s p e c t s o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y , i n r e c o g n i t i o n o f the f a c t t h a t d i f f e r e n t t r a n s p o r t f a c i l i t i e s can serve f e r e n t purposes a t d i f f e r e n t times. and  O b s e r v a t i o n o f the  dif-  pattern  type o f investment throws l i g h t on these changing purposes-  such as pioneer,  r e l i e f , feeder,  t o u r i s t or through-route.  Such  i n f e r e n c e s can be made w i t h o n l y a s u p e r f i c i a l a n a l y s i s of economic a c t i v i t i e s i n a f f e c t e d a r e a s .  T h i s approach b r i n g s l e s s  d e f i n e d measurement of the transport/economy r e l a t i o n s h i p , but a broader understanding.  193  An  important c o n s i d e r a t i o n  which comes out o f the o b s e r v a t i o n  f o r p l a n n i n g purposes,  o f investment, i s the  r e l a t i o n s h i p o f g a i n s i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y to the v i n g them. ship.  costs of  There i s extreme v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n t h i s r e l a t i o n -  I t i s an important f a c t o r i n understanding the  transport/economy i n t e r a c t i o n ; s o c i a l j u s t i c e , s i n c e the u s e r s ' p r i v a t e ' , and  the  'public',  the  the a c t i v i t i e s b e i n g measured by the 'private*.  changed a c c e s s i b i l i t y has  researched:  apparent  but a l s o , f o r q u e s t i o n s o f  investment i s u s u a l l y  nomic i n d i c e s u s u a l l y a l s o ment and  achie-  incidence  and  The  response to  been q u i t e  eco-  invest-  thoroughly  d i s p o s a l of b e n e f i t could  well  do w i t h more a t t e n t i o n . Cost-benefit  a n a l y s i s has  been much c r i t i c i z e d  i t s p a r t i a l i t y , or the i n a b i l i t y to i n c o r p o r a t e world changes i n t o i t s neat e q u a t i o n s . attempt to d e f l e c t any  I t was  acknowledged  changes observed here were to  o n l y a s a m l l p a r t o f the r e a l changes. those r e p o r t e d  real-  T h i s t h e s i s does not  o f those c r i t i c i s m s .  i n the f i r s t chapter t h a t the  a l l the  for  The  'costs* were  by the Department o f Highways, and  be  only  excluded such  t h i n g s as spending by m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , the o p p o r t u n i t y or i n t e r e s t c o s t s o f investment, or r e l a t e d c o s t s borne by p u b l i c or p r i v a t e a u t h o r i t i e s .  The  'transport  o t h e r competing or complementary modes. was  d e l i b e r a t e l y kept narrow and  The  other  system' i g n o r e d  measure o f  benefit  simple, to show the degree o f  immediate improvement o f f e r e d by changed f a c i l i t i e s . The  use  o f such improvement i s the  development p l a n n i n g .  c r u c i a l issue  I t i s extremely d i f f i c u l t to t r a c e  g a i n s through the users and  in the  dependent-users to t h e i r emergence  194  as a t a n g i b l e economic e f f e c t , as opposed to d e s c r i b i n g what happened here and what f o l l o w e d  there.  I t i s inevitable that  there are v e r y d i s p a r a t e economic responses to s i m i l a r changes i n f a c i l i t i e s : as the range of markets and  the i n t e r v e n i n g f a c t o r s , such  the t r a n s p o r t needs o f  were s e t out i n the f i r s t chapter. the necessary f i r s t  The  has  the changes i n f a c i -  shown a s m a l l p a r t of the  t i a l f o r response, i n the form of t r u c k o p e r a t i n g The  and  poten-  costs.  f i n a l defence o f t h i s p a r t i c u l a r approach, of  f o c u s s i n g on how provides  activities,  t h e s i s goes through  step, of showing how  l i t i e s were achieved, and  apparently  and where investment was  made, i s t h a t i t  a b e t t e r understanding o f the formation,  functions  purposes o f l i n k s and networks, as opposed to the  static  summary of the transport/economy r e l a t i o n s h i p .  The  former  h e l p s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n and h i s t o r i c a l treatment?  the  latter  h e l p s p r e c i s e measurement and p r e d i c t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p .  9.2  THE  PATTERN OBSERVED The  p a t t e r n o f investment i n B.C.  a b l y guided s t r o n g l y by user-demand. the d i f f i c u l t i e s of bad and  surfaces,  roads i s i n e v i t -  Current  delays,  u s e r s experience  hazards and  so  on,  u s u a l l y express t h e i r f e e l i n g s with a l a r g e degree of  unanimity. speed and  The  a u t h o r i t i e s are not p a s s i v e , however:  degree of response to t h a t demand can sometimes be  a r e g u l a t i n g f a c t o r i n economic a c t i v i t y , as i n the t h i r d crossing of Burrard increase  their  s h a r p l y a f t e r new  Inlet.  case of  the  That t r a f f i c flows o f t e n  f a c i l i t i e s are  s u p p l i e d , can  whether the government r o l e i s a p o s i t i v e or p e r m i s s i v e  obscure one.  195 P o l i c y d e c i s i o n s , taken i n a n a t i o n a l ,  provincial  or r e g i o n a l context, have a l s o i n f l u e n c e d the p a t t e r n o f i n vestment.  I t has been s a i d t h a t i n B.C. the government has  g i v e n an e x c e p t i o n a l l y p o s i t i v e r o l e t o the t r a n s p o r t i n economic development.  factor  Whether t h i s has been s t r o n g e r than  i n other s o c i e t i e s developing t h e i r transport  infrastructure,  would have t o be t e s t e d by some s o r t o f comparative r a t i o o f • l e a d i n g investment* t o ' t o t a l investment*, the d i f f i c u l t y b e i n g i n q u a n t i t a t i v e l y d e f i n i n g and i d e n t i f y i n g the former. 'Leading' investments may be taken as those which provide exceptionally high q u a l i t y f a c i l i t i e s to a p a r t i c u l a r a r e a o r r o u t e , r e l a t i v e to the r e s t o f the system;  which pro-  v i d e c a p a c i t y 'well i n excess* o f c u r r e n t l e v e l s o f use o r o f expected t r a f f i c generated from favoured nodes; t r a f f i c from e x i s t i n g r o u t e s ;  which r e - d i r e c t  which immediately and substan-  t i a l l y reduce c o s t s o f movement t o o r w i t h i n c e r t a i n areas; which open up new areas;  o r which c a t e r f o r some l e s s measure-  able o b j e c t i v e s such as n a t i o n a l defence, r e g i o n a l or  integration  support o f o t h e r p r o j e c t s . W i t h i n those broad terms, t h e r e were many l a r g e i n -  vestments  i n B.C. t h a t c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d ' l e a d i n g ' - t h e North  Thompson and Yellowhead Highways, improvements and u s e r - c o s t r e d u c t i o n s on the Northern T r a n s - p r o v i n c i a l from P r i n c e Rupert, p a r t s o f the Trans-Canada  Highway when f i r s t b u i l t , the Vernon-  South S l o c a n l i n k , the C h i l c o t i n Highway west from W i l l i a m s Lake, the 3B r o u t e north-west mines and m i l l s  from Rossland, roads t o v a r i o u s  (such as a t C a s s i a r , Highland V a l l e y , P r i n c e  George o r Mackenzie), the roads f o r h y d r o - e l e c t r i c development  196  n o r t h and south o f Revelstoke and around Hudson's Hope, and the roads t o B a r k e r v i l l e , G a r i b a l d i , and B u t t l e Lake. i s not an exhaustive l i s t s  the problem with o f f e r i n g  suggestions i s t h a t the purpose o f r o u t e s may over the p e r i o d .  F o r example, the o r i g i n a l  route c o u l d be regarded as an investment k i n d of investment  This these  have changed Hope-Princeton  for integration,  the  whose r e a l worth cannot be f u l l y measured  i n economic terms;  c u r r e n t adjustments  t o t h a t r o u t e can be  regarded as f o r c e d by user demand, i . e . ' l a g g i n g ' . A p a r t from b e i n g c h a r a c t e r i z e d as l e a d i n g or l a g g i n g some measure of demand, investments  can be d e s c r i b e d i n terms  o f e s p e c i a l l y s e r v i n g a process o f development.  In the  B.C.  case, such processes were b a s i c connection, e x t e r n a l connect i o n , p i o n e e r i n g , i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n , i n t e g r a t i o n , r e l i e f of t r a f f i c p r e s s u r e , and improvement o f d r i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s . processes are not e x c l u s i v e , but there i s some l o g i c a l and some evidence from B.C.,  Such  basis,  t h a t they e x i s t i n sequence.  Roads c o n s i d e r e d t o be s e r v i n g p a r t i c u l a r processes were i d e n t i f i e d i n e a r l i e r chapters.  The g e n e r a l t r e n d from b a s i c connec-  t i o n t o i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n , r e l i e f and improvement was  shown up  by the r e l a t i v e amounts spent i n the trunk and branch Some interdependence  of the amounts was  systems.  d e s c r i b e d i n ch.  4.  However, there i s o n l y a very weak n e c e s s i t y and even l e s s stancy i n the r e l a t i o n s h i p , and i t was  con-  made l e s s v i s i b l e by the  shape, s i z e and content o f the r e p o r t i n g u n i t s . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between maintenance c o s t s and s t r u c t i o n c o s t s was  con-  examined i n the l i g h t of two hypotheses  t h a t spending on maintenance can be an:.instrument  -  of p o l i c i e s  197 other than s a t i s f y i n g users* standards or e x p e c t a t i o n s ?  and  t h a t the r e s p e c t i v e l e v e l s o f spending are interdependent and s u b s t i t u t a h l e t o some degree.  The p a t t e r n of spending showed  many eases to support the l a t t e r statement.  But i t d i s m i s s e d  the former statement, s i n c e the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f maintenance spending appears to be t i e d to l e v e l s o f use and t o i n c r e a s i n g l e v e l s of s e r v i c e .  The h i g h e s t per m i l e c o s t s of maintenance  occurred i n busy, v i t a l s e c t i o n s of road, p a r t l y due to p a t r o l s , and p a r t l y due to more expensive p a t c h i n g and r e s u r f a c i n g .  The  emphasis on s a f e t y , speed and r e l i a b i l i t y f o r c e s up maintenance c o s t s , u s u a l l y i n the more b u i l t - u p areas e x p e r i e n c i n g the most expensive p r o v i s i o n of f a c i l i t i e s . A r e c u r r i n g element  i n the p a t t e r n o f investment  was  the l a r g e , i n d i v i s i b l e investment needed to b r i d g e a r i v e r o r breach a p a s s .  Such a s i t u a t i o n i n r o a d - b u i l d i n g prevents the  a u t h o r i t i e s from g r a d u a l expansion o f improvement (as would seem to be p o s s i b l e i n the p r a i r i e and p l a i n s r e g i o n s ) whereby spending and b e n e f i t can be seen to p r o g r e s s c l o s e t o g e t h e r . Another r e c u r r i n g s i g h t was election years.  the peaking o f spending  around  T h i s brought a c o s t to the p r o v i n c e i n the  form of i n f l a t e d c o n t r a c t p r i c e s .  Another form of s o c i a l or  p o l i t i c a l manoevering t h a t b r i n g s a c o s t to the p r o v i n c e , i s the g r e a t e r use o f day-labour crews where c o n t r a c t work might i n f a c t be l e s s c o s t l y per m i l e .  For example, day-labour crews  employed by the Department o f Highways d i d a l l but the s u r f a c i n g o f the Kelowna-Rock Greek road through South Okanagan and Boundary-Similkameen d i s t r i c t s , whereas the t o t a l s i z e o f the project  (about $4m.)  might have j u s t i f i e d a c o n t r a c t job.  The  198 use o f road; spending  i n the p u r s u i t of o t h e r w e l f a r e  t i v e s i s , o f course, a l e g i t i m a t e one, in  the narrow treatment  objec-  but i t i s o f t e n i g n o r e d  of c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s e s .  There were many i n d i c a t i o n s of the c y c l i c a l of  spending,  traffic. to  nature  the momentum being r e g u l a t e d mainly by l e v e l s o f  In the l a s t few y e a r s , the c y c l e has come around a g a i n  an emphasis on the r e l i e f of t r a f f i c c o n g e s t i o n ,  i n the Lower Mainland.  particularly  G e n e r a l l y , the i n t e r - u r b a n l i n k s  else-  where have been a b l e to cope so f a r with the i n c r e a s e d annual t r a f f i c flows.  For most o f them, c a p a c i t y i s approached o n l y  on a few o c c a s i o n s i n the summer months, p r e s e n t i n g a r e c o n c i l i a t i o n o f l a r g e f i x e d investments  difficult  and p r o t r a c t e d under-  u t i l i z a t i o n of capacity. T r a f f i c flow does not g i v e the f u l l measure of the dependence o f areas on p a r t i c u l a r l i n k s . a v a i l a b i l i t y o f other modes and activities*  Much depends on the  on the extent and nature  demand f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .  T r a f f i c f l o w may  of be  a  f a i r i n d i c a t o r of the importance of the A g a s s i z - H a i g s e c t i o n of  the Lougheed Highway, but c o u l d not convey the  of  the S t e w a r t - C a s s i a r l i n k , the A l b e r n i - T o f i n o l i n k , or the  Yellowhead Highway.  Roads which *make t h i n g s p o s s i b l e * r e q u i r e  a d i f f e r e n t treatment benefit analysis.  importance  to t h a t p r o v i d e d by the t r a d i t i o n a l c o s t -  'With and without*  measurement i s c e r t a i n l y  p r e f e r a b l e to 'before and a f t e r ' measurement i n such but would s t i l l not take i n the f u l l access.  cases,  e f f e c t s of i n i t i a l  F u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i n t o these e f f e c t s may  be u s e f u l , i f  o n l y to supply a more d e f i n i t e but q u a l i t a t i v e s c a l e o f to  initial  access.  road  response  199 The attempt d i n g by a mathematical successful.  a t c h a r a c t e r i z i n g the p a t t e r n o f spend e s c r i p t i o n was s u g g e s t i v e b u t n o t  I t seems t h a t p o p u l a t i o n , e x t e r n a l c o n n e c t i o n and  amount o f through path mileage account f o r much o f the v a r i a t i o n in districts*  t o t a l s , but a r e n o t r e l i a b l e i n d i c a t o r s .  Where  l a r g e r p o p u l a t i o n s 'would have* f o r c e d up the t o t a l s , a s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t o f r o a d p r o v i s i o n was hidden i n spending by and through the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s .  The seasonal d i f f e r e n c e s i n road  use suggest t h a t the p o p u l a t i o n f a c t o r o v e r e s t i m a t e s the spending r e q u i r e d i n the I n t e r i o r d i s t r i c t s , f o r two reasons:  many  a c t i v i t i e s i n the I n t e r i o r do n o t r e l y g r e a t l y on r o a d a c c e s s ; and many o f the roads a r e r e l a t i v e l y un-used, i n terms o f a c t u a l t r a f f i c numbers, f o r 7 o r 8 months o f the y e a r .  The s e a s o n a l  range o f t r a f f i c flows w i l l continue t o p r e s e n t d i f f i c u l t c h o i c e s f o r the a u t h o r i t i e s , c o n c e r n i n g the q u a l i t y o f f a c i l i t i e s and the standards o f maintenance.  9.3  THE MEASUREMENT OF IMPROVEMENT One o f the most important f i n d i n g s o f the a n a l y s i s  was the v a r y i n g •importance*  o f l i n k s depending  t i v e used.  those which r e q u i r e the b i g g e s t  I n budget terms,  on the perspec-  t o t a l investment w i l l be h e l d up as most important - such as the Yellowhead,  Rogers Pass, o r P o r t Mann B r i d g e .  A different  s c a l e w i l l emerge i f c o s t s p e r m i l e a r e used, and a g a i n a very d i f f e r e n t s c a l e i f t r u c k c o s t savings per u n i t o f spending a r e used.  Varying significance i s attached to a l i n k ,  depending  on the p e r s p e c t i v e taken - the l i n k p e r se, the l i n k i n terms  200 of  c u r r e n t flow, or the l i n k i n terms o f minimum paths  p o t e n t i a l flows.  The i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r p l a n n e r s are s e r i o u s -  s i m i l a r amounts of spending improvement}  and  buy v e r y d i f f e r e n t amounts o f  and the c o n t r i b u t i o n of a p a r t i c u l a r l i n k  im-  provement t o the t o t a l network q u a l i t y i s h i g h l y v a r i a b l e . Therefore, tical. of  the  for  the t i m i n g of improvement and b e n e f i t becomes c r i -  T r a f f i c might b u i l d up q u i t e suddenly, ' b e n e f i t ' i n a s h o r t time.  and  consume a l l  Relatively large  low l e v e l s of t r a f f i c might appear extravagant,  might h e l p r e - l o c a t e a c t i v i t i e s , r a t h e r than simply use o f c u r r e n t a c t i v i t i e s , and  savings yet  they  intensify  i n the l o n g run reduce the  total  s o c i a l c o s t of movement. The  t r u c k eosts were used i n a number of ways t o  demonstrate the v a r i a b l e meaning of improvement.  For one v e h i -  cle  u s i n g each o f the l i n k s , the savings over 1952  for  a s e l e c t i o n o f nodes e v a l u a t e d i n terms o f Shimbel acces-  s i b i l i t y s c o r e s , the average savings was  26%;  22$;  were  and f o r a r e p r e -  s e n t a t i v e sample of l i n k s weighted by t h e i r a c t u a l flow, i t 63$.  was  The  Shimbel i n d i c e s showed how  different  gains  o c c u r r e d f o r d i f f e r e n t p l a c e s , a c c o r d i n g to the degree of change on adjacent l i n k s . interdependence of  investments.  investment  The  l i n k importance measure showed the  o f r o u t e s , and  the consequent  interdependence  Pressure might b u i l d up elsewhere because of  i n a p a r t i c u l a r area.  The  l i n k e x p e r i e n c i n g most  congestion or h i g h e s t o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , need not be the where r e m e d i a l investment  i s applied.  the v a l u e d - l i n k measures supported  one  Both the s t r u c t u r a l  the c o n t e n t i o n t h a t the  and B.C.  road network has become much more i n t e g r a t e d , e s p e c i a l l y s i n c e 1962.  201 No matter how  the improvement i s measured, t h e r e  remains a v e r y d i f f i c u l t problem i n t r a c i n g i t s u t i l i z a t i o n . I n t e r p r e t a t i o n of p r i v a t e users* response to the  improved  roads has been almost completely a v o i d e d i n t h i s t h e s i s . i s obvious though,  t h a t the B.C.  It  s i t u a t i o n needs to be examined  i n the l i g h t of commuters' and t o u r i s t s ' response t o b e t t e r roads, s i n c e much o f the investment i s now those two groups.  d i r e c t e d towards  Even l i m i t i n g one's f i e l d to t r u c k s a l l o w s  only a 'guess' a t the degree o f response.  There are two  of response - the t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y as a whole, and f i r m s or o p e r a t o r s .  Gray  levels  individual  (1969) l o o k e d a t the f i r s t l e v e l ,  c o n c e n t r a t i n g mainly on r e g u l a t i o n - a n d c o m p e t i t i o n ; (1962) looked a t the second l e v e l .  Fleischer  A u s e f u l study would com-  bine the two p e r s p e c t i v e s , r e l a t i n g the response to road investment. Most of the network s t u d i e s i n Geography have l o o k e d a t the response amongst a c t i v i t i e s , r e l a t i v e l y few have observed the road u s e r s , where the i n i t i a l response and s h o r t - t e r m a d j u s t ments o c c u r .  Two  estimates of savings were made i n t h i s  the one working up from t r a f f i c  thesis,  counts, and the o t h e r working  back from a survey of f r e i g h t movements.  A number of h y p o t h e t i -  c a l s i t u a t i o n s i n v o l v i n g a t r u c k o p e r a t o r were presented, to show the i n i t i a l and p o s s i b l e adjustment  to r o a d improvements.  Given the data, i t i s p o s s i b l e to t r a c e through the a d j u s t ments? which l e a d s t o the d i f f i c u l t stage o f whether or  how  savings w i l l be made a v a i l a b l e to s h i p p e r s , producers and sumers, and whether or how  they w i l l make adjustments.  con-  202 Geographers have tended to assume away the mechanisms by which improved s u r f a c e s and  networks a f f e c t a c c e s s i b i l i t y ,  and by which t h i s i n t u r n a f f e c t s the adjustment o f One  obvious example has been the r a t h e r d e f e r e n t i a l treatment  o f the d e t e r r e n t Planners, failed and  activities.  or f r i c t i o n  component of the g r a v i t y model.  p a r t i c u l a r l y i n f o r e i g n - a i d type p r o j e c t s , have o f t e n  to take i n t o account the mix  t h e i r r e a l t r a n s p o r t needs.  through t r u c k operators  of  activities,  Tracing over-the-road  savings  and p r i v a t e users to s h i p p e r s and  ducers might w e l l provide t r a n s p o r t needs.  and m a t u r i t y  pro-  an understanding of the d i v e r s i t y o f  So no apology i s made f o r t a k i n g t h i s study  through the r e s e a r c h e s of the highway e n g i n e e r i n g  and  economy f i e l d s ,  i n order  spatial re-  arrangements may  occur.  to understand b e t t e r how  From such r e s e a r c h as to the use  highway  of p o t e n t i a l gains,  i t might be p o s s i b l e to a r r i v e a t some measure o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n needs f o r a d i s t r i c t ,  as attempted r a t h e r s k e t c h i l y i n  ch.3,  t a k i n g i n t o account the devious r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f investment, improvement and  use.  remain p o l i t i c a l and  The  e s s e n t i a l d e c i s i o n s on  s o c i a l ones.  promotes use  and,  eventually,  situations.  As the c y c l e i n B.C.  met,  wonders how before  sities, or use  That p r o v i s i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s  'needs', has been shown i n many  to the c o s t l y r e l i e f o f c o n g e s t i o n one  'needs' w i l l  has moved round i n r e c e n t i n urban or near-urban  f a r the demand f o r m o b i l i t y and  d i f f u s e demand.  be  c e n t r a l den-  d i s p e r s e d o f f i c e and r e t a i l and manufacturing of a l t e r n a t i v e transport  areas,  access w i l l  the d e l i b e r a t e r e a c t i o n s of i n c r e a s e d  years  functions  systems w i l l occur to reduce or  I n t e g r a t i o n of the network i n c r e a s e s faster:;*  than g e n e r a l economic development, but c o s t s i n urban a r e a s have been i n c r e a s i n g  a t an even f a s t e r r a t e , and t h i s may i n -  h i b i t the a u t h o r i t i e s *  attempts to g i v e a p o s i t i v e  direction  to economic and s o c i a l development through the investment i n roads.  BIBLIOGRAPHY AND APPENDICES  BIBLIOGRAPHY  SOURCES s B r i t i s h Columbia. Report o f t h e Commission Road-user Charges. V i c t o r i a , 1959.  of Inquiry into  B r i t i s h Columbia, Department Counts. 1953-71.  o f Highways,  Summer  B r i t i s h Columbia,  o f Highways,  Annual Report o f  the M i n i s t e r .  Department  1955-56 t o 1970-71.  B r i t i s h Columbia, Department o f P u b l i c Works, of the M i n i s t e r . 1946-47 to 1954-55. B r i t i s h Columbia, Department o f F i n a n c e , Economic Review. (annual)  Traffic  Annual Report  F i n a n c i a l and  B r i t i s h Columbia, Department o f Trade and I n d u s t r i a l Development , B.C. F a c t s and S t a t i s t i c s . (annual) B r i t i s h Columbia, P u b l i c U t i l i t i e s Commission, Annual R e p o r t s .  1969-72.  General Teamsters' Union. L o c a l 181. Master F r e i g h t and Cartage Agreement. 1972-73 Vancouver, B.C. Gray J . The Character and P e r v a s i v e n e s s o f T r a n s p o r t Compet i t i o n i n the Movement o f Commodities from G r e a t e r Vancouver O r i g i n s t o B.C. D e s t i n a t i o n s . MBA T h e s i s ,  U.B.C. I969.  S t a t i s t i c s Canada.  Highway C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i c e Index. S e r i e s 62-002  S t a t i s t i c s Canada. F o r - H i r e T r u c k i n g Survey, B.C. 1970. S e r i e s 53-224. S t a t i s t i c s Canada.  Motor V e h i c l e T r a f f i c A c c i d e n t s . S e r i e s 53-001  S t a t i s t i c s Canada.  Motor C a r r i e r s F r e i g h t Q u a r t e r l y . S e r i e s 53-005  S t a t i s t i c s Canada. Motor T r a n s p o r t T r a f f i c B.C. 1964. S e r i e s 53-214. S t a t i s t i c s Canada. Operations o f C l a s s I and C l a s s I I Motor C a r r i e r s ( F r e i g h t ) . S e r i e s 53-222.  205  206  S t a t i s t i c s Canada. Operations o f C l a s s I I I and C l a s s IV Motor C a r r i e r s ( F r e i g h t ) . S e r i e s 53-223. "Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Canada". Toronto.  May 1972,  ON HIGHWAY ENGINEERING: Baerwald, J.E. ( e d ) . T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r i n g Handbook., f o r I n s t , of T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r s . N.Y. 1965. Canadian Good Roads A s s o c i a t i o n . Roads. 1963; and 1 9 7 0 .  Geometric Design f o r Canadian  C a p e l l e , D. C l e v e l a n d , D. and Rankin, W. ( e d s ) . An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o Highway T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E n g i n e e r i n g . , f o r I n s t , of T r a f f i c E n g i n e e r s . N.Y. 1968. George H., e t a l .  Q u a l i t y and Theory o f T r a f f i c Flow.  Yale  u.p. 1 9 6 1 . Gerlough D., and C a p e l l e D. T r a f f i c Flow Theory. Highway Research Board S p e c i a l Report no, 7 9 , 1 9 6 4 . H a r i t o s Z., Road T r a n s p o r t I n f r a s t r u c t u r e Costs i n Canada. Canadian T r a n s p o r t Commission, Ottawa. 1 9 7 2 . Highway C a p a c i t y Manual. Report no. 8 7 .  1 9 6 5 . Highway Research Board,  Special  Highway Research Boards Economic A n a l y s i s i n Highway Programming, L o c a t i o n and Design. H.R.B. S p e c i a l Report no. 5 6 . Sept. 1 9 5 9 . Highway Research Board: I n t e r s t a t e Highway Maintenance R e q u i r e ments and U n i t Maintenance E x p e n d i t u r e Index. NCHRP Report no. 42. Wash. D.C. 1965. L i n d l e y J , , An Incremental Cost Study o f Highway S t r u c t u r e s i n Ohio. H.R.B. Proceedings, v. 3 6 , 1 9 5 7 . p. 4 4 - 5 0 . Oglesby C. and A l t e n h o f f e n M., Economics o f Design Standards f o r Low-volume R u r a l Roads. NCHRP Report no. 63. H.R.B.  19W.  Oglesby C , and Hewes L., Highway E n g i n e e r i n g . Roberts P., L i n k A n a l y s i s f o r Route L o c a t i o n . v. 7 7 . 1 9 6 5 .  Wiley, N.Y. 1 9 6 3 . H.R.B. Record,  Schwender H., Normann 0 . , Granum J . , New Methods o f C a p a c i t y D e t e r m i n a t i o n f o r R u r a l Roads i n Mountainous T e r r a i n . H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 1 6 7 , 1 9 5 7 . p. 1 0 - 3 7 .  207 Swanson E., A S t a t i s t i c a l A n a l y s i s o f R u r a l Road C o s t s . H.R.B. Proceedings, v.36, 1 9 5 7 . p. 1 5 - 2 3 . U.S., Bureau o f P u b l i c Roads, Highway Cost A l l o c a t i o n Study. Congress, House, Wash. 1961. Woods K., Berry D., Goetz W., Highway E n g i n e e r i n g Handbook. McGraw H i l l . N.Y. i 9 6 0 . ON TRANSPORTATION'S EFFECTS ON THE ECONOMY* A b l e r R., Adams P., Gould P., S p a t i a l O r g a n i s a t i o n - a Geographer's View o f the World. P r e n t i c e H a l l . N.J. 1971. Baumol W. On the S o c i a l Rate o f D i s c o u n t . American Economic Review, Sept. 1968. p. 788-803. Berry B. and G a r r i s o n W. A Note on C e n t r a l P l a c e Theory and the Range o f a Goiod. Economic Geography, v . 34, 1958. p. 304-11. Berry B. Recent S t u d i e s Concerning the Role o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n the Space Economy. Am. Assoc. Geog. Annals, v. 49. Sept. 1959. Berry B. and Pred A. C e n t r a l p l a c e S t u d i e s - Review and B i b l i o g r a p h y . . f o r R e g i o n a l Science I n s t . P h i l a . 1 9 6 1 . B i r d s a l l S. A Model f o r Determining Road Investment P r i o r i t i e s i n A g r i c u l t u r a l l y Underdeveloped A r e a s . E a s t Lakes Geographer, v . 7. Dec. 1971. p. 60-71. B l e i l e G., and Moses L. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and the S p a t i a l D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Economic A c t i v i t y . H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 311. IWT Borchert J . 1961.  p. 2 7 - 3 0 . The Twin C i t i e s Urbanised A r e a . Geog. Rev. v . 5 1 , p. 47-70.  von Boventer E . R e l a t i o n s h i p between T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Costs and L o c a t i o n Rent i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Problems. J n l . R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e , v. 3 . no. 2 . 1961. p. 27-40. B r i t t o n J . Methodology i n Flow A n a l y s i s . E a s t Lakes Geographer, v. 7. Dec. 1971. p. 22-40. Brown R. T r a n s p o r t and the Economic I n t e g r a t i o n o f South A m e r i c a . B r o o k i n g s I n s t . Wash. D.C. 1 9 6 6 . Burch J . T r a f f i c I n t e r a c t a n c e between C i t i e s . no. "297; J a n . 1961. p. 14-17.  H.R.B. B u l l e t i n  208 Bureau o f Economics & S t a t i s t i c s . T r a n s p o r t Routes i n the Economic Development o f N o r t h e r n B.C. Victoria. 1956. Burns R. An A p p l i e d Systems Approach f o r the Development o f R e g i o n a l and N a t i o n a l Highway Systems i n Underdeveloped C o u n t r i e s . Master's T h e s i s , Dept. C i v i l Eng. M.I.T. Mass. Feb. 1966. C a r r o t h e r s G. An H i s t o r i c a l Review o f the G r a v i t y and Potent i a l Concepts o f Human I n t e r a c t i o n . J n l . Am. I n s t , o f P l a n n e r s , v. 2 2 . 1 9 5 6 . p. 9 4 - 1 0 2 . Curry D. and Haney D. A Manual f o r Conducting Highway Economy S t u d i e s . S t a n f o r d Research I n s t i t u t e . 1966. Curry L. Q u a n t i t i v e Geography..Canadian Geographer, no. W. 1967. p. 2 6 5 - 7 9 .  v.  11,  Curry L. C e n t r a l Place i n the Random Economy. J n l . Reg. S c i . v. 7, no. 2 . Supplement 1 9 6 7 . p. 2 1 7 - 2 3 8 . Denike K. The Role o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Investment i n Economic Developmenti B r i t i s h Columbia. UBC Centre f o r T r a n s p o r t S t u d i e s , O c c a s i o n a l Working Paper. 1972. Denike K. and L e i g h R. R e g i o n a l Economic Development i n B.C. unpub. mimeo. Dept. o f Geography. UBC. 1971. Duggal A. A Formula f o r P r e d i c t i n g I n t e r - c i t y T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n . Proceedings, 1967 Convention, Canadian Good Roads A s s o c . Vancouver, p. 4 4 0 - 4 9 . Eash R., C i v g i n M., Haack H. An Investment Approach Toward Developing P r i o r i t i e s i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g . RTR.B. Record no. 314. 1 9 7 0 . p. 8 7 - 9 7 . Evans H. Economic S t u d i e s f o r Highways. T r a f f i c v. 2 2 , Oct. 1 9 6 8 . p. 4 7 9 - 4 9 6 .  Quarterly,  Fromm G. T r a n s p o r t Investment and Economic Development. i n g s I n s t . Wash. D.C. 1 9 6 5 .  Brook-  G a r r i s o n W. E s t i m a t e s o f the Parameters o f S p a t i a l I n t e r a c t i o n . Papers and Procs. Reg. S c i , A s s o c . v. 2 . 1 9 5 6 . p. 280-88. G a u t h i e r H. Geography, T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and R e g i o n a l Development. Economic Geography, Oct. 1 9 7 0 . v. 46. no. 4 . p. 6 1 2 - 1 9 . Grant E. and Oglesby C. B u l l e t i n no. 3 0 6 .  Economy S t u d i e s f o r Highways. I96I. p. 2 3 - 3 8 .  H.R.B.  Graybeal R. and G i f f o r d J . Impact Model o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Systems on Land V a l u e s . Annals o f Reg. S c i . v. 2 . 1 9 6 8 . p. 153-60.  209 G r i f f i t h s W, The Economic E v a l u a t i o n o f P u b l i c Investment i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n Underdeveloped C o u n t r i e s . MBA T h e s i s . UBC. 1968. Haggett P. L o c a t i o n a l A n a l y s i s i n Human Geography. London" 1965.  Arnold,  H a i k a l i s G. and Joseph H. Economic E v a l u a t i o n o f T r a f f i c Networks. H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 306. 1961. p. 39-&3» Haney D. Problems, M i s c o n c e p t i o n s and E r r o r s i n B e n e f i t - C o s t A n a l y s e s o f T r a n s i t Sytems. Highway Research Record, no. 314. I9W. p. 9 8 - 1 1 3 . H a r r i s B. A Note on the P r o b a b i l i t y o f I n t e r a c t i o n a t a D i s t a n c e . J n l . o f Reg. S c i . v . 5. no. 2 . 1964. p. 31-35. Hawkins E . Investment i n Roads i n Underdeveloped C o u n t r i e s . B u l l e t i n o f the Oxford I n s t , o f S t a t i s t i c i a n s , v. 2 2 , no. 4. i 9 6 0 , p. 3 5 9 - 6 9 . Hawkins E .  Road T r a n s p o r t i n N i g e r i a .  O.U.P. 1 9 5 8 .  Costs and B e n e f i t s o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g . Record no. 314. 1 9 7 0 . Hirschman A. Development Wash. D.C. 1967.  Highway Research  P r o j e c t s Observed. Brookings I n s t .  Hodge G. P r e d i c t i o n o f Trade Centre V i a b i l i t y on the Great P l a i n s . Papers and P r o c s . Reg. S c i . A s s o c . V. 15. 1965. p. 8 1 - 1 1 6 . Hodge G. Urban S t r u c t u r e and R e g i o n a l Development. P r o c s . Reg. S c i . A s s o c . v . 2 1 . p. 1 0 1 - 1 2 .  Papers and  Horwood E, Community Consequences o f Highway Improvement. NCHRP Report no. 18. Highway Research Board. I963. Hurter A, and Moses L. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Investment and R e g i o n a l Development. J n l . Am. I n s t . P l a n n e r s , v . 3 0 , no. 2 . 1964. p. 132-39. . Hutchinson B. An^Approach t o the Economic E v a l u a t i o n o f Urban T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Investments. Highway Research Record, v. 314. 1 9 7 0 . p. 72-86. Hutchinson B. Economic C r i t e r i o n f o r Highway C a p a c i t y Determ i n a t i o n . P r o c s . Am. Soc. o f C i v i l Eng. Aug. 1 9 7 2 . p. 4 6 5 - 7 5 . Hutchinson B. Programming o f R e g i o n a l Highway Investments. P r o c s . o f Am. Soc. C i v i l Eng. Aug. 1 9 7 2 . p. 4 9 4 - 5 0 3 .  210 Ingram D. Concept o f A c c e s s i b i l i t y s Search f o r an O p e r a t i o n a l Form. R e g i o n a l S t u d i e s , v . 5. no. 2. J u l y , 1971. K i n g J . Economic Development P r o j e c t s and T h e i r A p p r a i s a l . Johns Hopkins, B a l t i m o r e . 1967. .Kuhn T, Economic Concepts o f Highway P l a n n i n g . no. 306. 1961. p. 81-121?  H.R.B. B u l l e t i n  Lee R. and Grant E . I n f l a t i o n and Highway Economy H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 100. 1955.  Studies.  L e v i n D. I d e n t i f y i n g and Measuring Non-user B e n e f i t s . S p e c i a l Report no. 56. Sept. 1959.  H.R.B.  M a r t i n B. and Warden C. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P l a n n i n g i n Developing Countries. T r a f f i c Quarterly, v . 17. Jan. 1965. p.59-75. M e i n i g D. A Comparative H i s t o r i c a l Geography o f Two R a i l n e t s . A n n a l s o f Assoc. Am. Geog. v. 5 2 . 1962. p. 394-413. Mohring H. and Harwitz M. Highway B e n e f i t s , an A n a l y t i c a l Framework. Northwestern U n i . I l l i n o i s . 1962. N e i d e r c o r n J . and Beehdolt B. An Economic D e r i v a t i o n o f the * G r a v i t y Law' o f S p a t i a l I n t e r a c t i o n . J n l . Reg. S c i . v. 9, no. 2. I 9 6 9 . p. 273-82. O'Connor A. Railways and Development i n Uganda. E a s t A f r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f S o c i a l Research. O.U.P. N a i r o b i , 1 9 6 5 . Oort C. C r i t e r i a f o r Investment i n the I n f r a s t r u c t u r e o f Inland T r a n s p o r t . 0,E.C.D, P a r i s , (undated) Orr E . A S y n t h e s i s o f T h e o r i e s o f L o c a t i o n , o f T r a n s p o r t Rates and o f S p a t i a l P r i c e E q u i l i b r i u m . Paps, and P r o c s . Reg. S c i . A s s o c . v . 4. 1 9 5 7 . p . 61-73. 0 * S u l l i v a n P. Transport Networks and the I r i s h Economy. London S c h o o l o f Economics, Papers i n Geography no. 4. 1 9 6 9 . Parr J . and Denike K. T h e o r e t i c a l Problems i n C e n t r a l Place A n a l y s i s . Economic Geography, v . 46, no. 4. Oct, 1970. p. 568-86. P e r l e E . The Demand f o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n . Papers no. 95. 1964.  U. Chicago Research  Pool J . A P o s t e r i o r i E v a l u a t i o n o f the Economic and S o c i a l E f f e c t s o f Investment i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n I n f r a s t r u c t u r e s the Mexican N a y a r i t ^ J a l i s c o C o a s t a l Highway. Ph.D. thesis. U. Colorado. 1969. P r e s t A. and Turvey R. C o s t - B e n e f i t A n a l y s i s - A Survey. Economic J o u r n a l , v. 75. Dec, 1965.  211 R i d l e y T. Reducing the T r a v e l Time i n a T r a n s p o r t Network, i n S c o t t A. T e d ) S t u d i e s i n R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e . London. 1969. p. 73-87. Rimmer P. T r a n s p o r t i n T h a i l a n d - the Railway D e c i s i o n . Research S c h o o l o f P a c i f i c S t u d i e s , dept. o f Human Geography. A.N.U. Canberra. 1971. Roberts P. T r a n s p o r t P l a n n i n g : Models f o r Developing C o u n t r i e s . Northwestern U n i . Ph.D. t h e s i s , C i v i l Eng. 1966. Roggeveen V. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n F o l k l o r e Important t o Systems A n a l y s i s . Annals o f Reg. S c i . v . 1. 1967. p. 213-22. Smith R. T r a n s p o r t Competition i n A u s t r a l i a n Border A r e a s . Economic Geog. v . 3 9 . 1963. p. 1 - 1 3 . S t a r k i e D. T r a f f i c and I n d u s t r y . London S c h o o l o f Economics, G e o g r a p h i c a l Papers no. 3 . 1 9 6 9 . Stroup R. and Vargha L. R e f l e c t i o n s on Concepts f o r Impact Research. H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 3 1 1 . 1961.p.1-12. T a f f e E., M o r r i l l R., Gould P. T r a n s p o r t Expansion i n Underdeveloped C o u n t r i e s . Geog. Rev. v . 53. 1 9 6 3 . p. 5 0 3 - 2 9 . Ullman E . The Role o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and the Bases f o r I n t e r a c t i o n , i n Thomas W. (ed) Man's Role i n Changing the Face o f the E a r t h . U.Chicago P r e s s . 1 9 5 6 . U n i t e d S t a t e s , Bureau o f P u b l i c Roads. Study. Wash. D.C. 1 9 6 5 .  Highway Cost A l l o c a t i o n  U n i t e d S t a t e s , Dept. o f Commerce, O f f i c e o f Research and Development. Highways and Economic and S o c i a l Changes. Wash. D.C. 196¥T^ Walters A. Theory and Measurement o f P r i v a t e and S o c i a l Cost o f Highway Congestion. Econometriea. v . 2 9 . 1961. p.676-99. Walters A. The Economics o f Road User Charges., f o r World Bank S t a f f O c c a s i o n a l Papers, no. 5. Johns Hopkins P r e s s . 1968. Wheat L. E f f e c t o f Modern Highways on Urban M a n u f a c t u r i n g Growilu Hway.Res.Record. v . 2 7 7 . 1969. p. 9-24. Wheeler J . An Overview o f Research i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Geography. E a s t Lake Geographer, v. 7. Dec. 1971. p. 3-12. W i l l s M. The Highway Network, T r a f f i c Flow, and the Growth o f S e t t l e m e n t s i n I n t e r i o r B.C. M.A, t h e s i s . U.B.C. Dept. o f Geography. 1971. Wilson G. e t a l . The Impact o f Highway Investment Brookings I n s t , Wash, D.C. 1966.  on Development.  212 W i l s o n G. The Role o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n R e g i o n a l Economic Growth., i n T y r c h n i e w i c z E . and T a n g r i 0 . (eds) T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and R e g i o n a l Development. Conference, Centre f o r T r a n s p o r t S t u d i e s . U n i . o f Manitoba. Dec. 1970. p. 4 3 - 5 3 . Winch D.  Economics o f Highway P l a n n i n g . U n i . Toronto.  1963•  Winfrey R. and Z e l l n e r C. Summary and E v a l u a t i o n o f Economic Consequences o f Highway Improvements. NCHRP Report no. 122. Hway. Res. Board. Wash.D.C. 1 9 7 1 . Wolpert J . Departures from the Usual Environment i n L o c a t i o n a l A n a l y s i s . A n n a l s . Amer. Assoc. Geog. v . 60, no. 2 . June 1 9 7 0 . p. 2 2 0 - 2 9 . Z e t t e l R. The Incidence o f Highway B e n e f i t s . Report no. 5 6 . Sept. 1 9 5 9 .  H.R.B. S p e c i a l  ON THEORY AND MEASUREMENT OF NETWORKS: Anderson R. The Problem o f A u t o c o r r e l a t i o n i n R e g r e s s i o n Analysis"! J n l . Am. S t a t s . Assoc. v. 4 9 , 1954. p. 1 1 3 - 2 9 . B a r t i e t t M. Some A s p e c t s of the Time C o r r e l a t i o n Problem i n Regard t o T e s t s o f S i g n i f i c a n c e . J n l . Roy. S t a t . Soc. v. 9 8 . p t . 3 . 1 9 3 5 . P. 5 3 6 . Bavelas A. Communication P a t t e r n s . J n l . o f the A c o u s t i c a l Soc. o f Am. v . 2 2 . 1 9 5 0 . p. 7 2 5 . Beauehamp M. An Improved Index o f C e n t r a l i t y . B e h a v i o u r a l S c i e n c e , v. 1 1 . 1966. p. 161. Beckman M.  A Continuous Model o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n . Econometrica,  v. 2 0 . T9~5T.  p. 643.  Beckman M. On The Theory o f T r a f f i c Flow i n Networks. Q u a r t e r l y , v. 2 1 . 1 9 6 7 . p. 1 0 9 .  Traffic  Beckman M. P r i n c i p l e s o f Optimal L o c a t i o n f o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Networks., i n G a r r i s o n W. and Marble D. Q u a n t i t a t i v e Geography. Northwestern Univ. S t u d i e s i n Geography, no. 1 3 . 1 9 6 7 . Berge C.  The Theory o f Graphs.  N.Y. W i l e y . 1 9 6 2 .  Berry B. and Baker A. Geographic Sampling., i n Berry B. and Marble D. S p a t i a l A n a l y s i s . P r e n t i c e H a l l , N.J. 1 9 6 8 . p. 91-103. B l a l o c k H. C o r r e l a t e d Independent V a r i a b l e s : the Problem o f Multicollinearity! S o c i a l F o r c e s , v . 42. 1 9 6 3 . p . 2 3 3 . Bunge W.  T h e o r e t i c a l Geography.  Gleerup, Lund U n i . Sweden.. I 9 6 6 .  213 Burton I . A c c e s s i b i l i t y i n Northern Ontario-an A p p l i c a t i o n of Graph Theory t o a R e g i o n a l Highway Network. Ontario Dept. o f Highways. 1962. Church D, Impact o f S i z e and D i s t a n c e on I n t e r c i t y Highway Share o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f I n d u s t r i a l Products. Hway. Res. Record no. 1 7 5 . 1967. p. 1 - 8 . Cummings L. 1967.  Flows and Network S t r u c t u r e .  Ph.D. t h e s i s ,  D a n t z i g E . On the S h o r t e s t Path Through a Network. Op. Research, v . 8 . I960, p. 187.  Iowa.  Jnl. of  Domanski R. Remarks on Simultaneous and A n i s o t r o p i c Models o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Networks^ Paps, and P r o c s . Reg. S c i . Assoc. v . 1 9 . 1967. p. 2 2 3 . F o r d L. and F u l k e r s o n D.  Flows i n Networks.  P r i n c e t o n U.P. 1 9 6 2 .  Funk M. and Roberts P. Toward Optimum Methods o f L i n k A d d i t i o n i n T r a n s p o r t Networks. Dept. C i v i l Eng. Report. Northwestern Um. I l l i n o i s . Sept. 1 9 6 4 . G a r r i s o n W. and Marble D. A n a l y s i s o f Highway Networks - A L i n e a r Programming F o r m u l a t i o n . H.R.B. Proceedings, v. 3 7 . p. 1 - 1 7 . G a r r i s o n W. e t a l . S t u d i e s o f Highway Development and Geographic Change. Seattle, 1959. G a r r i s o n W. C o n n e c t i v i t y o f the I n t e r s t a t e Highway System. Paps, and P r o c s . Reg. S c i . A s s o c . v . 6. I960, p. 1 2 2 . G a r r i s o n W. F a c t o r A n a l y t i c Study o f the C o n n e c t i v i t y o f a T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Network. Paps, and P r o c s . Reg. S c i . A s s o c . v . 1 2 . 1 9 6 3 . p. 2 3 1 . G a r r i s o n W., Marble D. e t a l . Prolegomenon t o the F o r e c a s t i n g of T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Development. Northwestern U n i . 1965. f o r U.S. Army, F o r t E u s t i s , V i r g i n i a . G a r r i s o n W. and Marble D. Q u a n t i t a t i v e Geography. Uni. S t u d i e s i n Geography, no. 1 3 . 1967.  Northwestern  G a u t h i e r H. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and the Growth o f the Sao Paulo Economy. J n l . Reg. S c i . v . 8. 1968. p. 77-94. G a u t h i e r H. L e a s t Cost Flows i n a C a p a c i t a t e d Network., i n Horton F. (ed) Geographic S t u d i e s o f Urban T r a n s p o r t a t i o n . Northwestern U n i . S t u d i e s i n Geography, no. 16. 1 9 6 8 , p. 1 0 2 . Haggett P. and Chorley R. London. 1 9 6 9 .  Network A n a l y s i s i n Geography.  Arnold,  214 Haynes K. and Ip P. P o p u l a t i o n , Economic Development and the S t r u c t u r e o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n the P r o v i n c e o f Quebec. T i j d s c h r f i t Voor Econ. en Soc. G e o g r a f i e . N o v . - D e c . 1971. p. 3 5 6 - 6 3 . Gould P. The Development o f the T r a n s p o r t a t i o n P a t t e r n i n Ghana, i n Northwestern U n i . S t u d i e s i n Geography no. 5 . I960. Haggett P. On the E x t e n s i o n o f the Horton C o m b i n a t o r i a l A l g o r i t h m to R e g i o n a l Highway Networks. J n l . Reg. S c i . v. 7 . 1967. p. 281-90. H e l v i g M. Chicago's E x t e r n a l Truck Movements; s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n s " between the Chicago a r e a and i t s h i n t e r l a n d . U. Chicago, Dept. o f Geography, Research Paper no. 9 0 . 1964. Horton P. Geographic S t u d i e s o f Urban T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and Network A n a l y s i s ! Northwestern U n i . S t u d i e s i n Geography, no. 16. 1968. I s a r d W. L o c a t i o n and the Space Economy. Cambridge, Mass. 1956.  M.I.T. P r e s s .  Kanaan N. S t r u c t u r e and Requirements o f the T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Network of S y r i a " Hway.Res. Record, v. 1 1 5 . 1 9 & 5 . P » 9 - 3 3 • 1  Kansky K. The S t r u c t u r e o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Networks. U n i . Chicago, Dept. o f Geography, Research Paper no. 84. 1 9 6 3 . Katz L.  A New  S t a t u s Index.  Psychometrika, v.18. 1 9 5 3 .  P.39-^3.  K i s s l i n g C. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Networks, A c c e s s i b i l i t y and Urban F u n c t i o n s ; an e m p i r i c a l and t h e o r e t i c a l a n a l y s i s . P h . D . t h e s i s , M c G i l l U. 1966. K i s s l i n g C. A c c e s s i b i l i t y and Urban Economic A c t i v i t y . P r o c s . of 5 t h New Zealand Conference o f G e o g r a p h y . A u c k l a n d 1967. Uni. Cantebury, Dept. of Geography S e r i a l s . K i s s l i n g C. Linkage Importance^in a R e g i o n a l Highway Network. Canadian Geographer, v. x i i i , no. 2 . 1969. p. 1 1 3 - 2 7 . Lachene R. Networks and the L o c a t i o n o f Economic A c t i v i t i e s . Paps, and Procs. Reg. S c i . Assoc. v. 14. 1965. p. I 8 3 - 9 6 . McCarty H. Use of C e r t a i n S t a t i s t i c a l Procedures i n Geograp h i c a l A n a l y s i s . Annals Assoc. Am. Geog. v. 46, 1956. p. 263. " Medvekov Y. A p p l i c a t i o n o f Topology i n C e n t r a l P l a c e A n a l y s i s . Paps and p r o c s . Reg. S c i . Assoc. v. 2 0 . 1 9 & 7 . P« 7 » 2  Morlok E . T r a n s p o r t Technology and Network S t r u c t u r e . Transp o r t a t i o n Centre, Northwestern U n i . I l l i n o i s . 1 9 6 7 .  215 Morlok E . T r a n s p o r t Technology and Network S t r u c t u r e . Transp o r t a t i o n Centre, Northwestern U n i . I l l i n o i s . I967. M o r r i l l R. S i m u l a t i o n o f C e n t r a l P l a c e P a t t e r n s over Time. Lund S e r i e s i n Geography, s e r i e s B. Human Geography, no. 24. 1962. Nordbeck S.  Computing D i s t a n c e i n Road Nets. Paps, and P r o c s . Reg. S c i . Assoc. v . 12. 1963. p. 207-20.  Nystuen J . and Daeey M. Graph Theory I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f Nodal Regions. Paps, and P r o c s . Reg. S c i . Assoc. v . 7. 1961. p. 29-42. P i t t s P. A Graph T h e o r e t i c Approach t o H i s t o r i c a l Geography. P r o f . Geog. v. 17, no. 5. 1965. p. 15-19. Quandt R. Models o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and Optimal Network Cons t r u c t i o n . J n l . Reg. S c i . v . 2. I960, p. 27-45. Robinson A. N e c e s s i t y o f Weighting Values i n C o r r e l a t i o n A n a l y s i s o f A r e a l Data. Annals A s s o c . Am. Geog. v. 46,  1956. p. 2 3 3 - 6 .  Robinson A. and Caroe L, On the A n a l y s i s and Comparison o f S t a t i s t i c a l S u r f a c e s . , i n G a r r i s o n W. Q u a n t i t a t i v e Geography. Northwestern U n i . S t u d i e s i n Geography,  no. 1 3 . I967.  S a s a k i Y. The Concept o f H i e r a r c h y i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n . v. 12, no. 125. 1966. p. 250.  Ekistics.  S c o t t A. A Programming Model o f an I n t e g r a t e d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Network. Paps, and P r o c s . Reg. S c i . Assoc. v . 19. 1967 p. 215-22. Shimbel A. S t r u c t u r a l P r o p e r t i e s o f Communication Networks. B u l l e t i n o f Mathematical B i o p h y s i c s , v. 15. 1953. p. 501-7. Shimbel A. and Katz L. metric Analysis.  A New S t a t u s Index D e r i v e d from SoeioPsychometrika, v. l b . 1953. P. 39-4-3.  Tanner J . A T h e o r e t i c a l Model f o r The Design o f a Motorway System. M i n i s t r y of T r a n s p o r t U.K. Road Research Lab., Report no. 23. 1966. Thomas E . Maps o f R e s i d u a l s from R e g r e s s i o n s . , i n Berry B. and Marble D. S p a t i a l A n a l y s i s . P r e n t i c e H a l l , N.J. 1968. Thomas E . and Anderson D. A d d i t i o n a l Comments on Weighting Values i n C o r r e l a t i o n A n a l y s i s o f A r e a l Data. Annals o f Am. Assoc. o f Geog. v . 55, 1965. p. 492-505. U.K. Road Research. M i n i s t r y o f T r a n s p o r t U.K. Road Research Laboratory, i960.  216 Werner C. Networks and t h e i r S e r v i c e Areas., i n Horton F. (ed) Northwestern U n i . S t u d i e s i n Geography, no. 1 6 . 1 9 6 8 , Wolpert J . The D e c i s i o n Process i n a S p a t i a l Context. o f A s s o c . Am. Geog. v. 5 3 . 1964. p. 5 3 7 - 5 « . ON VEHICLE BEHAVIOUR AND  Annals,  PERFORMANCE  Adkins W., A. Ward, W. McFarland. Value o f Time Savings o f Commercial V e h i c l e s . N a t i o n a l Cooperative Highway Researeh Program, Report no. 33. Highway Research Board. 1967. American A s s o c i a t i o n o f S t a t e Highway O f f i c i a l s (AASHO). Road User B e n f i t A n a l y s i s f o r Highway Improvements. Wash., D.C. I960. B e l l i s W. and J . Jones. 30TH PEAK HOUR TREND. Record, no. 2 7 . 1 9 6 3 . p. 1-13.  Highway Research  C l a f f e y P. Time and F u e l Consumption f o r Highway User B e n e f i t Studies^ H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 2 7 6 . I960. C l a f f e y P. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f Passenger Car T r a v e l on T o l l Roads and Comparable Free Roads. H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 3 0 6 . 1961. p . 1 - 2 2 . Dawson R. V e h i c l e O p e r a t i n g Costs i n I 9 6 2 . T r a f f i c Engineering and C o n t r o l , v. 4, no. 9 . London. Jan. I 9 6 3 . F l e i s c h e r G. The Economic U t i l i s a t i o n o f Commercial V e h i c l e Time Saved as the R e s u l t o f Highway Improvement. P u b l i c a t i o n no. 3 . P r o j e c t on Engineering-Economic P l a n n i n g . S t a n f o r d U. I 9 6 2 . F r i e d l a n d e r A. The I n t e r s t a t e Highway System. plublishing^ Amsterdam. 1965.  North H o l l a n d  Glaze C. and van Meighen G. V e h i c l e O p e r a t i n g Cost Survey. H.R.B. P r o c s . v. 3 6 . 1 9 5 7 . p. 51-63. Gwynn D.  Truck E q u i v a l e n c y .  1 9 6 8 . p. 2 5 3 - 3 6 .  T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , v. 2 2 .  April  H a l l J . , S a w h i l l R., Matteson J . User B e n e f i t s i n Economic A n a l y s i s o f M e t r o p o l i t a n F r e e w a y C o n s t r u c t i o n . Hway. Res. Record, v. 314. 1 9 7 0 , p. 32-40. Highway Research Board. F a c t o r s and Trends i n T r i p Lengths. NCHRP Report no. 48. 1968. Wash. D.C. Kent M. F u e l and Time Consumption Rates f o r Trucks i n F r e i g h t S e r v i c e . H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 2 7 6 . I960, p. 1-19.  217 Koppelman F. A Model f o r Highway Needs E v a l u a t i o n . Res. Record, no. 314. 1970. p. 1 2 3 - 3 4 . Lang A. and Robbins D. Operating Costs.  Hway.  A New Technique f o r P r e d i c t i n g V e h i c l e H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 308, 1962. p.19-35.  Lawton L. E v a l u a t i n g Highway Improvements on a Mileage and Time Cost B a s i s . T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , v . 4 , n o . l , 1 9 5 0 . p. 102-3. Loutzenheimer D. Resume o f AASHO Report. Report no. 5b. 1 9 5 9 . p. 36-42.  H.R.B. S p e c i a l  P h i l l i p s J . The S e n s i t i v i t y o f V e h i c l e F u e l Consumption Costs to Road Improvements. H.R.B. s e s s i o n on Highway Engmeer i n g Economy, j a n . 1 9 6 4 . Plummer A., W i l k i e L „ Gran R. H o l i d a y and Summer Weekend T r a f f i c Survey. H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 2 9 7 . 1961, p. 74-85. R i c h a r d s E . The Economic Value o f Road Improvements. and Road C o n s t r u c t i o n , v . 3 1 , 1 9 5 3 .  Roads  R i t t e r L. Determination o f ^ U n i t V e h i c l e O p e r a t i n g and Time Cost., i n Woods e t a l . Highway E n g i n e e r i n g . Wiley, N.Y. T96"0". p. 39-51. Roberts P. and Soberman R. A V e h i c l e Performance Model f o r Highways i n Developing Countries"! T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , v. 2 1 , no. 3. 1 9 6 7 . p. 443-62. S a a l C. Time and G a s o l i n e Consumption i n Motor Truck O p e r a t i o n as A f f e c t e d by the Weight and Power o f V e h i c l e s and by the R i s e and F a l l o f Highways. H.R.B. Research Report 9A. 1 9 5 0 . S a w h i l l R. and F i r e y J . P r e d i c t i n g F u e l and T r a v e l Time Consumption o f Motor T r a n s p o r t V e h i c l e s . H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 3 3 4 . 1963. p. 27-46. S a w h i l l R., Matteson J . , H a l l J . V e h i c l e C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f F u e l and T r a v e l Time on Urban A r t e r i a l s and Freeways. Hway. Res. Record, v . 314, 1 9 7 0 . p. 4 1 - 5 9 . Schwender H. V e h i c l e Operating C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . v. 3 6 . 1 9 5 7 . p. 5 3 9 - 6 0 . ;  H.R.B. P r o c s .  Soberman R. and C l a r k G. A General Purpose Model f o r Motor V e h i c l e Operating C o s t s. Hway. Res. Record, no. 314. 1 9 7 0 . p. 6 0 - 7 1 . Stevens H. L i n e Haul T r u c k i n g Costs i n R e l a t i o n t o V e h i c l e Gross Weights. H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 3 0 1 . 1961.  218 Tanner J , F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g t h e Amount o f T r a v e l . Road Research T e c h n i c a l Paper no. 5 1 . Road Res. Lab. U.K. 1961. Thomas T. and Thompson G. The Value o f Time f o r Commuting M o t o r i s t s as a Function" o f t h e i r Income L e v e l and the Amount o f Time Saved. Hway. Res. Record, no. 314. 1 9 7 0 . p. 1 - 1 9 . Wagner F. and May A. Volume and Speed C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a t Seven Study L o c a t i o n s . H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 2 b l . p. 4b-67. de W e i l l e J . Q u a n t i f i c a t i o n o f Road User Savings., f o r World Bank S t a f f O c c a s i o n a l Papers no. 2 . Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore. 1 9 6 6 . Winfrey R. Research on Motor V e h i c l e Performance R e l a t e d t o A n a l y s e s f o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Economy. H.R.B. A b s t r a c t s , v. 33 no. 1 2 . Dec. 1963. and Hway Res. Record, no. 7 7 . 1 9 6 3 . p. 1-18. Winfrey R. Economic A n a l y s i s f o r Highways. book Co. S c r a n t o n . P h i l a . 1969.  I n t e r n a t i o n a l Text-  Wolfe R. A T e n t a t i v e Procedure f o r E s t i m a t i n g R e c r e a t i o n a l Highway T r a f f i c . T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , v . 2 3 . no. 1 . J a n . 1969. p. 1 0 5 - 2 1 .  219 APPENDIX I CHANGES IN ELECTORAL DISTRICTS SINCE Vancouver-Point Grey was  s u b d i v i d e d i n 1966  19^6 into s i x d i s t r i c t s *  P o i n t Grey, South, Centre, L i t t l e Mountain, E a s t , B u r r a r d . Burnaby was  s u b d i v i d e d i n 1966  into three d i s t r i c t s *  Edmonds,  W i l l i n g d o n , North. D e l t a was  s u b d i v i d e d i n 1966  into four d i s t r i c t s *  Delta,  Richmond, Surrey, Langley. Dewdney l o s t i t s western s e c t o r to Coquitlam i n 1 9 6 6 . North Vancouver was  subdivided, i n 1966*  C a p i l a n o , Seymour, and  West Vancouver - Howe Sound which i n c l u d e d the southern s e c t i o n o f the former L i l l o o e t  district.  Nanaimo l o s t some o f the i s l a n d s to an extended Saanich and Islands.  The  The adjustment to Nanaimo a l s o e n t a i l e d some  adjustment to Cowichan - Newcastle, whose name was  then  changed to Cowichan - Malahat. L i l l o o e t l o s t i t s southern s e c t o r to West Vancouver i n I966,and was  - Howe Sound  i t s remainder was merged i n w i t h Y a l e - which  extended to the e a s t , - t o become Y a l e - L i l l o o e t .  Similkameen l o s t some o f i t s western t e r r i t o r y t o Y a l e - L i l l o o e t in I966,  and was then j o i n e d w i t h Grand F o r k s - Greenwood  to become Boundary - Similkameen. F e r n i e and Cranbrook were combined K a s l o - S l o c a n was  i n I 9 6 6 to become Kootenay.  j o i n e d w i t h the former Revelstoke to become  R e v e l s t o k e - S l o c a n . Revelstoke l o s t some t e r r i t o r y t o the former Salmon Arm, which then became Shuswap. The a d j u s t ment to form Shuswap a l s o i n v o l v e d some a l t e r a t i o n t o North Okanagan*s n o r t h e r n boundary. Peace R i v e r was  s p l i t a f t e r 1956  i n t o North and South  divisions.  220 APPENDIX I I THE TRUNK ROADS AS USED IN THIS THESIS Vancouver Islands  V i c t o r i a to Swartz Bay:  No. 1 Highway n o r t h to Nanaimo; to A l b e r n i ;  from V i c t o r i a , the  the road from P a r k s v i l l e  the I s l a n d Highway from Nanaimo to K e l s e y  Bay. Lower Mainland;  Squamish to Horseshoe Bay;  the Trans-Canada  from Horseshoe Bay east t o Hope, and n o r t h and e a s t to the  A l b e r t a border;  Marine D r i v e from Horseshoe Bay to  the  C i t y , u n t i l r e p l a c e d by the Upper L e v e l s Highway;  No. 1 from Vancouver, a l o n g Kingsway, a c r o s s P a t u l l o Bridge and eastwards, u n t i l r e p l a c e d by No. 401;  Hastings-  Barnet thoroughfare and Lougheed Highway east t o Haig; No. 499 from Vancouver south to U.S. border; u n t i l r e p l a c e d by Deas Tunnel; Terminal;  Ladner P e r r y  No. 17 t o Tswawassen  Ladner Trunk Road e a s t to Langley;  Surrey t o U.S. border; Bellingham;  No. 99 from  No. 13 from A l d e r g r o v e towards  A b b o t s f o r d - M i s s i o n No. 11;  and A g a s s i z  to Rosedale. Southern I n t e r i o r ;  Southern T r a n s - p r o v i n c i a l No. 3»  a l l s e c t i o n s o f 3A and 3B;  Rossland - Paterson, the  o r i g i n a l Rossland t o Cascade u n t i l r e p l a c e d ; Waneta; Porthill;  Remac to Nelway;  including  Yahk to K i n g s g a t e ;  Elko to R o o s v i l l e ;  Kamloops and - Spences B r i d g e ;  T r a i l to Creston to  Princeton - Merritt the Okanagan Highway from  Keremeos and Osoyoos n o r t h to Sicamous, Salmon Arm and Monte Cree;  Cranbrook - Kimberley and n o r t h , and Cran-  brook - F o r t S t e e l e and n o r t h ; link  the South S l o c a n to Vernon  (though i n c l u d e d as p a r t o f branch development i n  terms o f the spending on h y d r o - e l e c t r i c p r o j e c t s ) . Northern I n t e r i o r :  Kamloops - Tete Jaune Cache - P r i n c e George.  Hope - L y t t o n - Cache Creek - P r i n c e George;  Prince  George t o Chetwynd and Dawson Creek and v i a Hudson's Hope to F o r t S t . John; to F o r t Nelson; and K i t i m a t .  from Tupper t o Dawson Creek and n o r t h from P r i n c e George west t o P r i n c e Rupert  APPENDIX I I I CONTENT AND  METHODS OF  THE  SIMULATION OF TRUCK COSTS*  Identify link. I d e n t i f y m i l e s (D) o f s u r f a c e s , P p a v e d and G g r a v e l . I d e n t i f y m i l e s o f l e g a l l y r e s t r i c t e d speeds ( L ) . I d e n t i f y widths f o r various sections, convert to f a c t o r s (W) as i n T a b l e XI. C o u n t up t o t a l r i s e and f a l l i n f e e t f r o m 100* c o n t o u r maps, d i v i d e by l i n k d i s t a n c e , t o g e t a v e r a g e r i s e a n d f a l l ; c o n v e r t t o f a c t o r s f o r s p e e d (H) and f o r f u e l consumpt i o n (N) a c c o r d i n g t o T a b l e X I I . Take t r a f f i c f l o w f r o m p u b l i s h e d c o u n t s , c o n v e r t t o f a c t o r s (V) a c c o r d i n g t o T a b l e X I I I . Add i n any f e r r y d e l a y s ( Y ) . S e t b a s e s p e e d s a t 50mph. f o r P, and 38mph. f o r G. STEPS: 1.  Total D - legal  2.  L e g a l D -J-  3.  50  x Wp  «= s p e e d o v e r p a v e d  4.  38  x Wg  = speed over g r a v e l  5.  s t e p 3 x H = speed o v e r paved,  6.  s t e p 4 x H = speed o v e r g r a v e l ,  7.  s t e p 5 x V = speed o v e r paved,  8.  s t e p 6 x V = speed over g r a v e l ,  9.  s t e p 7 x Dp  = time o v e r paved  10.  s t e p 8 x Dg  = time o v e r g r a v e l  11.  sum  12.  link  t i m e -J- D = a v e r a g e  13.  Find  consumption  14.  Add  D =  20mph.  s t e p s 2,  9,  e x t r a grade  average  (Dp +  Dg)  = time o v e r l e g a l  and 10  factor  sections,  allowing  sections,  for  W.  allowing f o r  a l l o w i n g f o r W and allowing  f o r W and  a l l o w i n g f o r W, allowing  f o r W,  W, H. H.  H and H and  V. V.  sections.  = link  sections. time.  running  at this  D.  speed,  speed. see T a b l e  to consumption  XIV.  (Table  XIV)  to get  consumption.  15.  t o t a l D x average  16.  fuel  17.  s t e p 11  18.  link  19.  (Dp + l e g a l  20.  Dg  21.  sum  consumption  consumed x $0.40 = f u e l + Y = total  time x  $7.50 D)  18,  c o s t on  consumed. link.  time.  p e r h o u r = d r i v e r and  x paved  x gravel repair s t e p s 16,  link  = fuel  repair  costs = repair  cost = repair 19,  20  t r u c k c o s t on  = total  c o s t on  c o s t on g r a v e l link  link. paved.  sections.  cost.  Computer Programme p u t t o g e t h e r by L a r r y Meyer, D e p t . G e o g r a p h y , U.B.C.  of  

Cite

Citation Scheme:

        

Citations by CSL (citeproc-js)

Usage Statistics

Share

Embed

Customize your widget with the following options, then copy and paste the code below into the HTML of your page to embed this item in your website.
                        
                            <div id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidgetDisplay">
                            <script id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidget"
                            src="{[{embed.src}]}"
                            data-item="{[{embed.item}]}"
                            data-collection="{[{embed.collection}]}"
                            data-metadata="{[{embed.showMetadata}]}"
                            data-width="{[{embed.width}]}"
                            async >
                            </script>
                            </div>
                        
                    
IIIF logo Our image viewer uses the IIIF 2.0 standard. To load this item in other compatible viewers, use this url:
http://iiif.library.ubc.ca/presentation/dsp.831.1-0101618/manifest

Comment

Related Items