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Highway investment in British Columbia, 1946-71 : a study of the spatial distribution of investment… Townsend, Don Frank 1973

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HIGHWAY INVESTMENT IN BRITISH COLUMBIA 19^6-71s A STUDY OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENT AND AN ASSESSMENT OF ITS IMPACT ON THE HIGHWAY NETWORK by DON FRANK TOWNSEND B.A., University of Sydney, 19^3 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the Department of Geography We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1973 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by hi s representatives. It i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. DON FRANK TOWNSEND Department of Geography The University of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date A p r i l , 1973 ABSTRACT The subject of t h i s study i s road investment i n B.C. made through the P r o v i n c i a l Department of Highways i n the years 19^6-71, The pattern of investment i s described and i s used to indicate p o l i c i e s and objectives being evolved over the period. An e f f o r t i s also made to evaluate the impact of the investment i n terms of the benefit to c e r t a i n classes of road users. Data on investment were gathered from the Annual Reports of the Minister, and assembled according to area, item, time period and class of road. The nature of investment has been given close attention because i t i s f e l t that i t s r o l e has been somewhat overlooked i n the previous studies of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between transport inf r a s t r u c t u r e and economic a c t i v i t y . That r e l a t i o n s h i p has usually been treated i n summary form, with highly generalized indices. There i s an attempt i n t h i s study to f i n d a r a t i o n a l e of spending to explain the v a r i -ations between areas, and from which to draw inferences about p o l i c i e s . This leads on to closer examination of the trunk network. Some s t r u c t u r a l measures of improvement i n the net-work were calculated, but were not very h e l p f u l . This study argues that the improvement has to be valued by some user before i t i s translated into increased a c c e s s i b i l i t y and responses i i i i i amongst economic a c t i v i t i e s . Because improvements mean d i f -ferent things to d i f f e r e n t users and non-users, d i f f e r e n t approaches to evaluation have to he taken. A large truck i s chosen f o r the case of B.C., and operating costs are simulated fo r the roads e x i s t i n g i n 1952, 1962 and 1971. The changes i n truck operating costs are used to explore the meanings of •improvement' and the ' j u s t i f i c a t i o n * of certa i n investments. An estimate of annual savings to trucks from road improvements i s derived from the simulated costs. The approach through investment i s found to a i d understanding of route and network development. I t provides c r i t e r i a by which to evaluate other aspects of road develop-ment, such as the road needs of ce r t a i n populations, and the effe c t s of external connections and through paths. I t reveals the highly variable per mile eost of l i n k s , and emphasizes the interdependence of d i f f e r e n t types of spending. I t suggests a r e l a t i o n s h i p between inter-urban and l o c a l spending and t r a f f i c , which should be worth following up i n other s i t u a t i o n s . Among other things, i t i s discovered that there has been a tendency to spend an increasing proportion on the branch or feeder roads. In the l a s t few years, there has been an increasing concentration on urban or near-urban roads f o r the r e l i e f of congestion. The purposes of roads and routes are seen to change over time. The pattern of spending has been much affected by the d i f f i c u l t y of road construction i n B.C. In-creases i n e l e c t i o n years have stood out markedly. These have 'cost* the Province a s i g n i f i c a n t amount through i n f l a t e d con-t r a c t p r i c e s . i v Some suggestions are made on how over-the-road savings could make t h e i r way through to f r e i g h t rates, sched-ules and services, and thus a f f e c t the c l i e n t economic a c t i -v i t i e s . The estimate of annual savings of $15-20 m i l l i o n to large trucks i s a conservative and p a r t i a l measure of benefit. The aim was not a d e f i n i t i v e measure of improvement and p a r t i a l benefit, but to use the measure i n d i f f e r e n t con-texts and reveal the d i f f e r e n t meanings and quantities of improvement. Different ' j u s t i f i c a t i o n s * f o r l i n k investment were provided from d i f f e r e n t perspectives. The interdependence of l i n k s and of investment a l l o c a t i o n s i n the t o t a l system was emphasized. I t i s the main strength of t h i s modified network perspective that i t allows the simultaneous consideration of flows, structure, l i n k importance and nodal a c c e s s i b i l i t y . TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract i i L i s t of Tables v i i i L i s t of Figures x Acknowledgement x i i Chapter 1 - SCOPE OF THE STUDY 1. Introduction 1 2. Definitions 2 3. Resume of Spending: Actual Amounts, Possible Objectives 3 k. Investment by D i r e c t i o n and By Itemi A Hypothetical Generalized Programme 8 5. The Potential of a Changed Road Network 10 6. Summary of the Argument 13 7. Organization of the Study 1^ Chapter 2 - ANTECEDENTS OF THE STUDY 1. Transportation Studies i n Geography.. 18 . 2. Description of Transport Networks ... 20 3. Investment i n highway f a c i l i t i e s .... 21 4. Flows, t r a f f i c Behaviour and Simu-lated T r a f f i c 22 5. Investment, A c c e s s i b i l i t y and Economic Response 25 6. Synthesis of Themes and Interests i n the Literature 28 Chapter 3 - TOTAL SPENDING ON HIGHWAYS IN B.C. 19^6-71, BY.DISTRICT 1. Introduction - Aims and Sources 31 2. A Conceptual Framework of Spending .. 35 3. A Formula f o r Amounts of Spending? .. 38 k. Actual D i s t r i b u t i o n of Investment ... kO v v i Page Chapter 3-5. Possible V a l i d i t y of the Postulated Pattern 7^ 6. Breakdown of the Whole Period -Construction Price Changes 48 7. The Alloc a t i o n s over Time 52 8. The D i s t r i c t s ' A l l o c a t i o n over Time ... 57 9. Emphasis within Sub-periods 62 10. The Total A l l o c a t i o n Reviewed 6? Chapter 4 - SPENDING ON B.C. HIGHWAYS, ACCORDING TO CATEGORIES 1. Purpose of the Chapter 71 2. Relationship between Trunk Development and Branch Development 72 3. Spending i n B.C., by Road System .... 77 4. Changes i n the Trunk/Branch Ratio Over Time 82 5. Meaning of the T/B D i v i s i o n of Spending 87 6. Relationship between Maintenance and Construction Costs ............ 90 7. Maintenance Costs over Area 95 8. Meaning of Maintenance Cost Patterns. 97 Chapter 5 - INVESTMENT IN THE TRUNK NETWORK 1. Introduction 100 2. Importance of the Trunk System 101 3. Build-up of the Trunk System, 1946-71 105 4. Link Investment and Node A c t i v i t y ... 112 5. Network Improvement from the Allocat i o n s 117 6. Measurement of Network Change 121 Chapter 6 - EVALUATING IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TRUNK SYSTEM 1. Introduction 124 2. Choice of a Large Truck i n Evaluating Link Changes 125 v i i Page Chapter 6 - 3 . Trucks i n the Total T r a f f i c 131 4. Method of Simulation of Truck Operating Costs 139 5. Output from the Simulation 146 Chapter 7 - CHANGE IN THE NETWORK INDICATED BY TRUCK COSTS 1. Introduction 154 2. Investment A l l o c a t i o n s and Truck Cost Savings 154 3. Link Ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Truck Cost Savings 164 4. Link Changes i n a Network Context .. 170 5. Minimum Paths i n the Network 173 6. The Chapter Reviewed 179 Chapter 8 - THE VITAL CONCERN - USE OF TIME AND COST SAVINGS 184 Chapter 9 - CONCLUSION 1. The Approach 191 2. The Pattern Observed 194 3. Measurement of Improvement 199 BIBLIOGRAPHY 205 APPENDIX I Changes i n E l e c t o r a l D i s t r i c t s Since 1946 219 APPENDIX II The Trunk Roads, as Used i n This Thesis 220 APPENDIX III Content and Methods of the Simulation of Heavy Truck Costs 221 • • * V l l l LIST OF TABLES Table Page I. Influence on Cost per Mile of the Trunk Mileage k6 I I . Breakdown of Spending, by Period 53 I I I . Indicators of Road-user A c t i v i t y , 1950-72 5^ IV. Grouping of D i s t r i c t s According to the Sub-period of t h e i r Largest Share of Total Spending , 58 V. Grouping of D i s t r i c t s According to the Sub-period of t h e i r Most Intensive A c t i v i t y 63 VI. % Reduction from 19^6-71 Total a f t e r Adjustment f o r I n f l a t i o n 6^  VII. Total Spending i n the D i s t r i c t s , According to Item and To Road System, 19^6-71 78 VIII. Percentage of Total Spent on Branch System, by D i s t r i c t 79 IX. Relationship of Dollar A l l o c a t i o n s and Flows, on Selected Links 117 X. St r u c t u r a l Changes Resulting from Link Addition 120 XI. Percentage of Free Speeds, Under Width Restr i c t i o n s 1^ 3 XII. Indices of Free Speed and Normal Consumption, Due to Increasing Rise and F a l l IV* XIII. Percentage of Free Speeds, Under Average Daily Flows 1^ 5 XIV. Indicative Fuel Consumption at Average Running Speeds 1^ 5 XV. Truck Operating Costs on Selected Links .... 1*4-7 XVI. R e l i a b i l i t y of Calculated Costs 1^ 7 i x Table Page XVII. R e l i a b i l i t y of Calculated Speeds 148 XVIII. Relationship of Investment, T r a f f i c Flows and Truck Operating Costs 161 XIX. Improvements i n Truck Operating Costs 164 XX. Shimbel A c c e s s i b i l i t y Scores, 1971 Truck Costs 172 XXI. Shimbel Index Scores, 1952 and 1971. Selected Nodes 175 XXII. Link Occurrence In A l l Paths, 1952 and 1971 176 XXIII. Diversion of T r a f f i c from Kootenay Lake fe r r y , 1962-5 178 XXIV. Relationship Between Link Occurrence and Actual T r a f f i c , i n 1971» Selected Links 179 XXV. For-hire Trucks, Freight Movements, B.C. 1970 189 X LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Spending on Highways as % of Total Government Spending 4 2. Total Spending hy E l e c t o r a l D i s t r i c t s , 1946-71 41 3 . Total Spending per Mile of Road Open, 1946-71 43 4 . Total Spending per Mile of Road Improved, 1946-71 45 5. Highway Construction Price Index, 1956-71 50 6. Relationship of Spending on Roads to Indicators of Road User A c t i v i t y 55 7. Share of Total Spending, According to Sub-periods 61 8. D i s t r i b u t i o n of a D i s t r i c t ' s Total, According to Sub-periods 66 9 . Hypothetical Presentation of Trunk/Branch Ratio of Spending 73 1 0 . Generalized Diagrams of the Relation of Increasing T r a f f i c Flow to the Accumulating Cap i t a l and Maintenance Cost of F a c i l i t i e s 75 11. Diagrams of Trunk Mileage Within E l e c t o r a l D i s t r i c t s • • 81 12. Trunk/Branch Spending f o r Selected D i s t r i c t s , 3-year Averages 83 13. Trunk/Branch Spending f o r Selected D i s t r i c t s , Annually 86 14. Diagrams of the Relationship of Trunk and Branch Systems 88 x i Figure Page 15. Relationship of Construction, Maintenance and T r a f f i c Flows 93 16. Development of the Trunk System, by Period 106 17. Total Cost of Links i n the Trunk System, 19^6-71 107 18. Cost per Mile of Trunk Links, 1946-71 108 19. Simulated Heavy-Truck Costs, 1952 Links 156 20. Simulated Heavy-Truck Costs, 1962 Links 157 21. Simulated Heavy-Truck Costs, 1971 Links 158 22. 1971 Costs Related to 1952 Costs 159 23. Spending per Mile Related to Unit Savings i n Truck Costs 160 24. Average Truck Costs per Mile, 1971 Links I 6 7 25. Running Costs f o r Heavy Trucks At Increasing Speed 168 26. Imbalance i n Freight Movements i n B.C., 1970 186 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Gabrielle was the severest c r i t i c and most w i l l i n g helper. Special thanks are due to Roger Leigh, f o r h i s guidance and encouragement throughout, and to Bob North and Ken Denike f o r t h e i r c r i t i c i s m s and suggestions. Larry Meyer's help with the computer operations was indispensable. The Transport Development Agency made s u r v i v a l possible, by means of a fellowship award. My fellow graduate students helped to make the days i n t e r e s t i n g and the winters t o l e r a b l e . A special note of appreciation i s due to I s a b e l l and Alexandra, for the typing and i l l u s t r a t i o n s r e s p e c t i v e l y . x i i CHAPTER 1 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 1.1 INTRODUCTION The intention of t h i s thesis i s to describe and analyze road development i n B r i t i s h Columbia since World War II, t r y i n g e s p e c i a l l y to discern patterns i n the a l l o c a -tions of p r o v i n c i a l government spending that w i l l provide some clues to the p o l i c y objectives e x i s t i n g f o r various times and for various areas. The description concentrates on the main trunk network, which i s separated out f o r a special inspection of changes i n structure and quality , as related to d o l l a r s spent on improvements. I t must be emphasized that highways comprise only part of the t o t a l system of transportation i n B r i t i s h Columbia, and also that investment i n transportation i s only one of a number of means by which society can hope to achieve desired objectives.^" Governments can adjust the p r i o r i t y of trans-portation amongst the s o c i a l services they provide. Businesses can adjust the transport component of t h e i r factors of pro-duction. To consumers, transportation i s an adjustable element of demand. However, there i s probably l i t t l e need to argue the case that i n B.C. over the l a s t 25 years highway investment 2 has been a major t o o l of government, and i s a f i t topic f o r geographic analysis. 1 .2 DEFINITIONS The term "highways" does not cover a homogeneous ent i t y . On the contrary, highways vary greatly i n t h e i r purposes of service, t h e i r design, t h e i r capacity, t h e i r t r a f f i c composition, and t h e i r importance to the whole net-work. Within one region, i t i s possible to i d e n t i f y routes serving mainly commuters or t o u r i s t s or l o c a l r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t y , truck t r a f f i c , and le s s tangible purposes such as pioneering or integration. It i s l i k e l y that the purposes w i l l change over time and area as s t r u c t u r a l and s p a t i a l s h i f t s occur i n the economy, and that these w i l l be r e f l e c t e d i n the a l l o c a t i o n s of spending. The highway system, i n t h i s study, includes a l l highways, roads, t r a i l s , bridges and f e r r i e s which are adminis-tered, constructed, maintained, p a t r o l l e d or subsidized by, or through, the p r o v i n c i a l Department of Highways. A l l shared projects, where they have been detailed i n the accounts of the Annual Report of the Minister of Highways, are included i n the general term, "highway system", - f o r example, the access to hydro-electric development on the Columbia River, or the main highways through national parks. The highway system also includes the B.C. F e r r i e s D i v i s i o n , though i t s a l l o c a t i o n w i l l be kept out of most of the ana l y s i s . The reason f o r t h i s separate treatment i s i n the 3 range and influence of the operations of the D i v i s i o n . Perries, whether across r i v e r s or across g u l f s , connect-up subsystems of the whole network. With a mainland f e r r y , such as at Gastlegar, or at Kelowna, the range of influence i s r e l a t i v e l y l o c a l . Therefore, one i s on safer ground i n a t t r i b u t i n g costs and gains from those f e r r i e s to the l o c a l or surrounding sub-systems. One of the requirements of network analysis applied to geography i s a close r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment i n l i n k s of a subsystem and some observable response at the same scale. Not so with the Gulf f e r r i e s , since the subsystems connected are more numerous, more complex, and of greater extent. The highways system also includes roads and t r a i l s constructed or maintained under the scheme of grants-in-aid of mining development, and roads which are within municipal l i m i t s but which have been designated as a r t e r i a l s . The system excludes the la b y r i n t h of logging t r a i l s . I t also excludes the enormous mileage of roadway constructed and maintained by the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . This i s a s i g n i f i c a n t exclusion, since i n an increasingly urban society, a greater burden of the o v e r a l l road construction and maintenance w i l l s h i f t to the l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s , and more p r o v i n c i a l funds w i l l be channelled through the mu n i c i p a l i t i e s and not through the 2 Department of Highways. 1 . 3 RESUME OP SPENDINGt PROVINCIAL TOTALS, POSSIBLE OBJECTIVES In B r i t i s h Columbia since 1 9 ^ 6 , the budget a l l o c a t i o n s 4 to the highway system suggest two d i s t i n c t periods, described simply as "increasing p r i o r i t y " and "decreasing p r i o r i t y " . The f i r s t f i f t e e n years peaked i n 1960-61, when the a l l o c a t i o n reached 25 per cent of the t o t a l expenditure (see Figure 1), up from about 16 per cent i n 1947-48. In recent years, greater p r i o r i t y has been given to education, health and s o c i a l ser-vices, so that the a l l o c a t i o n to highways has decreased to around 11 per cent. F i g . 1 - Spending on Highways as a Percentage of Total Government Spending B.C. 1946-1972*  25 20 15 • 10 . i VO H I O vO I o vO H I I ON O VTi VO I vO VO CM I H IS-^plotted as 4- or 5-year averages, to illuminate the trends. ...dotted l i n e represents p r o v i n c i a l spending, net of cred i t s from Federal Government and B.C. Hydro. Sources B.C. Review of Resources, Production and Government  Finances, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950. B.C. Facts and S t a t i s t i c s , I967, 1968, I969. B.C. F i n a n c i a l and Economic Review, years I96I to 1972, Department of Finance, V i c t o r i a , B. C 5 Actual spending on highways has maintained an im-pressive rate of increase - from $91 m i l l i o n i n the three years 1949 to 1952 (including $3 m i l l i o n Federal payments), to $251 m i l l i o n i n 1959 to 1962 (including $42 m i l l i o n Federal), and to $430 m i l l i o n i n 1969 to 1972. The budget f o r 1973 to 1974 allows f o r $230 m i l l i o n - so the period 1971 to 1974 w i l l t o t a l about $650 m i l l i o n . Total spending maintained some-thing of a gently sloping plateau from 1957 through to 1969» as the main external connections and through-routes were put i n (see F i g . 5, Ch. 3 ) . Spending i n 1969 to 1970, and 1971 to 1972, has been ex t r a o r d i n a r i l y high, suggesting that the province i s entering onto a new l e v e l of annual spending on highways. This w i l l probably not be f o r another "development" phased rather a "relief-of-congestion" phase that w i l l be expressed i n the widening of bottlenecks, adding of freeways or alternates, constructing by-passes, and reorganizing the operations of the f e r r i e s . I t i s i n t h i s phase that parochial-p r o v i n c i a l tensions become more pronounced - the j u r i s d i c t i o n i s l o c a l ; the disruption of communities i s l o c a l ; the need f o r r e l i e f appears l o c a l though may, i n f a c t , be regional; the repercussions of r e l i e f i n one l i n k or i n one community are p r a c t i c a l l y immediate on the adjacent l i n k or community; but the decisions on funding and p r i o r i t y are s t i l l p r o v i n c i a l . The preceding paragraphs open up a consideration of some of the objectives of highway development. For a region, s t a r t i n g from a poor base of transport i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , there i s a tendency to go through the following arrangement of p r i o r i t y of objectives!^ 6 access to known or possible resources; p o l i t i c a l - s o c i a l intangibles, i . e . , "connecting up the region", f o r both i n t e r n a l integration and external contact, or f o r spreading more evenly c u l t u r a l and economic opportunities; reducing costs of production and d i s t r i b u t i o n through lower running and operating costs and t r a v e l time. The intention i s to stimulate or a t t r a c t a c t i v i t y , often directed to a t t r a c t i n g investment from outside the region; increasing the r e l i a b i l i t y of t r a v e l and supply; access to s p e c i f i c s i t e s of development, such as dams, i n s t a l l a t i o n s , and pipe l i n e s ; encouraging and f a c i l i t a t i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l to e x i s t i n g and new areas; favouring some industries and sub-regions over others, through the q u a l i t y of transportation; reduction of the elements of movement f o r which cost assessment i s impossible or extremely controversial - congestion, accidents, d i s -comfort , inconvenience; reduction of f r e i g h t and t r a v e l costs i n d i r e c t l y , through inter-nodal competition; influence on " l i v e a b l e " areas and on the supply of land f o r s p e c i f i c uses, through new access, f e r r i e s , bypasses, limited-access freeways, t o l l f a c i l i t i e s ; short-term unemployment r e l i e f and stimulus to a l o c a l economy; c a p i t a l investment i n the present to reduce future operating and maintenance costs of the autho-r i t i e s . Because of the range of responses to any investment i n transport infrastructure, i t i s very u n l i k e l y that one objec-t i v e w i l l be pursued f o r i t s e l f alone. For instance, (h) above has a strong bearing on ( f ) , and (d) could perhaps be considered as part of ( c ) . Given t h i s interdependence of objectives, 7 there are, however, examples i n the B.C, experience of the obvious predominance of one objective over others. Reading i n the government reports of the mid-19*K)s, p a r t i c u l a r l y those of the R e h a b i l i t a t i o n Commission, suggests that the demands on the highway au t h o r i t i e s were probably quite c l e a r l y and narrowly pereeived. The war would have reminded people of the economic and psychological concern f o r national security and communal integration. The war had convincingly demonstrated the importance of mobility and motor power. I t now l e f t problems of s o c i a l and economic r e h a b i l i t a t i o n and absorption of labour. The f i r s t major highways projects a f t e r 1945 were b a s i c a l l y attempts at integration - John Hart High-way into the Peace River d i s t r i c t , and the Southern Transpro-v i n c i a l from Hope to Keremeos and Penticton, and again from Nelson to Creston. For these projects, a high rate of spending was maintained from 1946 to 1952. As the economy has developed, and as the highway network has been b u i l t up by the completion and improvement of "obviously" urgent l i n k s , the a u t h o r i t i e s are faced with a growing number of demands with f i n e r margins of urgency. In purely economic terms, the d i s p a r i t i e s ( i n f r e i g h t and t r a v e l costs) between various l i n k s i n the system have been greatly reduced. The urgent tasks are now l e s s "obvious"; choices now involve more s o c i a l issues which are increasingly controversial and l e s s q u a n t i f i a b l e . S t r i c t economic analysis of investment proposals, nevertheless, becomes more important i n the sense of i d e n t i f y i n g and measuring what i s q u a n t i f i a b l e . In a l e s s 8 than perfect p o l i t i c a l system, i t i s economically and s o c i a l l y unsound to wait f o r l o c a l protest as an in d i c a t o r of road needs. The main data input to decisions on the a l l o c a t i o n of road investment i n B.C. has been undifferentiated t r a f f i c counts,-* usually taken i n the peak months of July and August.^ To use such a c r i t e r i o n exclusively over a long period would r e s u l t i n a uniform pattern, centered around the major produ-cing and the major populated areas, extending along the i n t e r -urban trunks, and shading o f f into the remote "economic wilderness".^ I f the a u t h o r i t i e s were bound to t h i s c r i t e r i o n , then highway investment would always follow s t r u c t u r a l and s p a t i a l s h i f t s i n the economy to the extent that they influence t r a f f i c flows. Highways would then reinforce economic-popula-t i o n patterns, and not help to mould them. As we s h a l l see, the actual pattern of investment over the past 25 years shows a severe d i s t o r t i o n away from such a simple pattern: the strongest factors i n that d i s t o r t i o n appear to be physiography, external connection, and o f f i c i a l government p o l i c y pursuing s p e c i f i c objectives. 1.4 INVESTMENT BY DIRECTION AND BY ITEM* A HYPOTHETICAL, GENERALIZED PROGRAMME A regional highway system i s made up of inter-urban long distance a r t e r i e s (trunks), and l o c a l lower-volume feeders (branches). A very primitive network, serving unplanned settlements, w i l l usually have a greater proportion of branch 9 mileage, i n the form of sub-systems of crude roads and t r a i l s to farms, forests, mines and so on, the sub-systems being 8 connected by low q u a l i t y trunks, by r a i l , or r i v e r transport. But with a central government programme of development, and an economy tending towards c e n t r a l i z a t i o n , attention i s usually directed towards the trunks to improve the quali t y , rather than to increase the mileage. At t h i s stage, the choice of projects i s r e l a t i v e l y l i m i t e d , e s p e c i a l l y where settlement has preceded the "Motor Age" - settlement appears to dictate the p r i o r i t i e s . A f t e r the major trunks are completed, more attention can be given to the branches u n t i l such time as the increase i n t r a f f i c or deterioration of the f a c i l i t y forces improvement, re l o c a t i o n or replacement of a trunk l i n k . A l i n k requiring such an adjustment ean occur within a sub-region where the feeders are being developed, or elsewhere i n the path to major populated areas. Over a long period, once can expect some s h i f t i n the trunk/branch r a t i o of spending. This r a t i o w i l l vary amongst sub-systems of the whole, w i l l vary f o r the whole system over time, and f o r p a r t i c u l a r sub-systems over time. Observing t h i s r a t i o f o r B.C. roads since 19^6 should indicate p a r t i c u l a r p o l i c i e s of development p r e v a i l i n g from time to time. As roadways are improved, maintenance costs w i l l decrease, at l e a s t f o r a short time a f t e r the improvement.^ Tarmac surfacing abolishes the need f o r grading? good design and wide shoulders reduce the damage caused by spring runoff and washouts; good design also reduces accidents and congestion, 10 depending of course on the rate of t r a f f i c generation. Rising maintenance and operating costs indicate the need f o r a major c a p i t a l investment - bridge replacing f e r r i e s i s the most obvious example of the s u b s t i t u t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s . Re-routing of t r a f f i c flows i s another way of reducing maintenance costs i n a d i s t r i c t * the alternate route may occur i n another part of the system and not be revealed by the accounts of one p a r t i -cular d i s t r i c t . In an early stage of road development, maintenance costs (M) w i l l be high i n r e l a t i o n to construction and improve-ment costs (C). With a deliberate programme of connection and improvement, C w i l l r i s e r a p i d l y , and M w i l l tend to decrease, on a per mile basis. In a f u l l y developed sub-system, with very low C, M w i l l r i s e as t r a f f i c flow (F) increases. Increases i n M t i e d to increases i n F indicate an attempt to maintain a given q u a l i t y of service. The pattern of M costs per mile, over time and over area, w i l l indicate something of the inten-tions of the auth o r i t i e s with regard to road development. 1.5 THE POTENTIAL OF A CHANGED ROAD NETWORK The early development of roads may be simply to allow movement and t r a v e l , i . e . , basic access. Beyond the stage of f i r s t connections, the aim i s generally to reduce the cost, time and d i f f i c u l t y of movement. The reduction of these elements can have very d i f f e r e n t e f f e c t s , hence the use of road develop-ment i n the planning f o r other objectives. I t matters where, when and how the reduced costs are achieved, f o r change i n one 11 part of the transport system e n t a i l s a rearrangement of r e l a -t i v e advantage and disadvantage elsewhere. A l l parts of the system (or of the economy) are competing f o r allocations? but also, some parts of the system are dependent on a l l o c a t i o n s to other parts of the system. Each a l l o c a t i o n contributes to the t o t a l structure and q u a l i t y of the whole system, but varying amounts of improvement can r e s u l t from s i m i l a r d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s , depen-ding on where they occur i n the network, on what f a c i l i t i e s are provided, and the time span assessed f o r use of the f a c i -l i t i e s . There i s a conscious choice to be made between, say, a l l o c a t i o n to the extension of a low-grade peripheral l i n k , and a l l o c a t i o n to the widening and improvement of a busy l i n k i n a v i t a l path. By r e l a t i n g the actual a l l o c a t i o n s to the amount of improvement "bought" f o r the whole system, a pattern of p r i o r i t y and preference may emerge, with indic a t i o n s of p o l i c y objectives being pursued from time to time. The reduction of costs of movement creates a new f i e l d of economic pote n t i a l i n absolute and i n r e l a t i v e terms. E x i s t i n g a c t i v i t y i n an area may be stimulated, sometimes to the disadvantage of si m i l a r a c t i v i t y i n other areas; new a c t i v i t y of a d i f f e r e n t type may be attracted to the favoured area." 1 , 0 Such adjustments and relocations w i l l be p a r t l y re-f l e c t e d i n the pattern, volume and composition of t r a f f i c flows - providing that the a c t i v i t i e s e x i s t i n g i n , or attracted to, an area express a consistent demand f o r road transportation. Where the road investment provides a f i r s t l i n k , or a l i n k to enable competition with other modes of transport, or a l i n k of 12 s i g n i f i c a n t l y improved quali t y , one would expect a s i g n i f i c a n t response by the trucking industry to the new po t e n t i a l of lower running costs, shorter t r i p times, increased load dimen-sions, and re-routing of t r i p s , provided that the nature and l e v e l of demand f o r transportation i s sustained or increased. With the vast improvement of the B.C. road system from 19^6 to 1971i and the dramatic removal of obstacles such as f e r r i e s and mountain passes, the response of the trucking industry ought to have been equally substantial and dramatic, even allowing f o r change within the trucking industry i t s e l f , due to technology, organization, regulation or other factor costs. There are important attenuating factors," 1"^ such as r a i l com-p e t i t i o n , or the lack of generated growth i n some areas. Areas favoured by investment, but lacking i n response, are also informative about the nature of economic development. An important c r i t e r i o n of the success of investment i s the degree to which the po t e n t i a l has been r e a l i z e d , and not just the p o t e n t i a l improvement offered. Road investments, of course, are not made as an end i n themselves, but should be rel a t e d to the economic "mix" and "maturity" of an area, f o r these charac-t e r i s t i c s strongly influence the type and degree of response. Observation of the trucking industry w i l l c e r t a i n l y not t e l l the f u l l story of the e f f e c t s of road investment i n B.C. A very important e f f e c t i s i n the volume and routing of t o u r i s t t r a f f i c , or i n the good access to other a c t i v i t i e s such as dam-building, mines and sawmills. However, the trucking industry has been singled out because of i t s being highly sensitive to changes i n the main network's structure and q u a l i t y . 13 At t h i s stage, the study can be considered p a r t i a l l y closed and p a r t i a l l y open. I t i s closed i n the sense that the investment pattern has been described, the network changes measured, and the pot e n t i a l f o r response outlined. I t i s open i n the sense that trucking i s only a small part of the response to road investment, and that wider repercussions w i l l occur as a r e s u l t of reduced cost of access to d i f f e r e n t locations. 1 .6 SUMMARY OF THE ARGUMENT Investment i n roads can be used as a means of achie-ving p a r t i c u l a r objectives, apart from the immediate r e l i e f of user demand or reduction of user cost. Over a long period, investment a l l o c a t i o n s w i l l describe c e r t a i n patterns, which are evidence of p o l i c i e s i n force. A p o l i c y and a p a r t i c u l a r decision r e l a t i n g to i t can be a powerful determinant of the shape, structure and qu a l i t y of a network; yet, t h i s may not be apparent from the usual method of r e l a t i n g c e r t a i n economic indices to network measures. Comparison of the road maps of 19^5 and 1971 suggests that one of the main r e s u l t s of investment has been integration-by-road, of settlements within the province, and of the province, as a whole, with the re s t of Canada and the U.S. northwest region. The trunk system i s the instrument f o r those p o l i c y objectives attainable through investment i n road transportation to the extent that a c t i v i t i e s depend on road transportation, and to the extent that affected a c t i v i t i e s are urban-oriented. I n i t i a l settlement and growth, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n B.C., are often 14 independent of the trunk system, but growth i n the higher order a c t i v i t i e s i s usually c l o s e l y r e l a t e d . Improvements and additions to the trunk system rearrange the po t e n t i a l f o r s o c i a l and economic i n t e r a c t i o n . Examination of the trunk system shows that the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a change i n invest-ment and a change i n that p o t e n t i a l i s highly v a r i a b l e . Truck movements over the trunk system represent a p a r t i c u l a r type of in t e r a c t i o n . Demand f o r i t i s expressed at a c e r t a i n l e v e l of cost of movement. Reductions i n the cost of movement, generally brought on by investment i n road f a c i l i t i e s , w i l l allow that demand to increase i f other con-d i t i o n s are permissive. I f the trunk system i s extended with new l i n k s , then the induced demand or the captured demand w i l l show, to some extent, i n truck movements. Response i n the trucking industry i s a v a l i d measure of the e f f e c t of road investment, though the measurement i s p a r t i a l and entangled with many other e f f e c t s and pressures. The gain bought by an investment i s not measurable i n terms of f a c i l i t i e s supplied} i t depends very much on where and when the investment i s made, i n r e l a t i o n to t o t a l network structure, t r a f f i c generating areas, and paths through the system. Different evaluations give d i f f e r e n t perspectives on the "worth" of investments i n road f a c i l i t i e s . 1.7 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY To place the study i n i t s f i e l d , and to show the inter e s t s being exercised, a b r i e f review of s i m i l a r or rel a t e d studies i s given i n Chapter 2. Chapter 3 reduces a great deal of information on actual spending to a few summary patterns, the main e f f o r t being directed towards some general statements about the factors determining investment i n p a r t i -cular d i s t r i c t s , and an attempt to suggest arrangements of p r i o r i t i e s . The attempt i s ca r r i e d over into Chapter 4, where the t o t a l s are broken down into classes of road and categories of spending. The classes and the categories are seen to be inter-dependent and substitutable to some extent. The dominance of the trunk system i n the patterns and pro-grammes of investment i s then obvious, so that Chapter 5 separates the trunk system f o r closer examination. The huge t o t a l cost and cost per mile f o r a few v i t a l l i n k s stand out i n t h i s description. Some suggestions are made about the possible reactions of users and a c t i v i t i e s to trunk investment. Some major s t r u c t u r a l changes are measured, and r e l a t e d to the cost of achieving them - but i t i s stressed that the st r u c t u r a l measures alone are not a clear indicator of actual gain. Chapter 6 looks at truck operations as one of the most important classes of road users. The available data are used to i l l u s t r a t e t h e i r importance i n B.C. p a r t i c u l a r l y . Trucks are used as the basis of measurement of l i n k quality, and a simple simulation of operating costs i s constructed, drawn from many experiments elsewhere and a compilation of a road inventory f o r B.C. Some indications of the r e l i a b i l i t y of the output of t h i s are provided from other sources and from personal observations, made i n July and September of 1972. 16 Simulated truck costs are then applied to the net-work i n Chapter 7> not so much to describe what has happened, as to show how d i f f e r e n t perspectives and measurements can be applied to description. This method brings out the varying meaning of ' l i n k importance'. Improvements are seen to occur on d i f f e r e n t scales, according to the perspective used. Chapter 8 gives s p e c i a l treatment to an important consideration - how road improvements might work through to truck operator or user savings. Some estimates of gain f o r the B.C. s i t u a t i o n are attempted. The attempt at l e a s t high-l i g h t s the lack of usable data. The conclusion i n Chapter 9 brings together the f a c t u a l findings and some general thoughts a r i s i n g from the study. 17 REFERENCESi 1 C. J , Oort, C r i t e r i a f o r Investment i n the Infrastructure  of Inland Transport, OBCD, Paris, undated. 2 The p r o v i n c i a l government provides an annual grant to the municipality of $25 per capita f o r "highways, p o l l u t i o n control, p o l i c i n g , and parks". I t also pays 100 per cent f o r designated a r t e r i a l s ; and for approved secondary roads, i t pays 50 per cent of construction and 40 per cent of maintenance. The actual frant f o r highways alone was $4 .5 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 5 9 - 6 0 , now up to 64.5 m i l l i o n i n 1971 -2. Source« B.C. F i n a n c i a l and Economic  Review. July 1972, pp. 33, 37, Department of Finance, V i c t o r i a , B.C. 3 R. Winfrey and C. Zellner describe three phases i n the U.S. experience - the development period, the roadway surfacing period, and the high-capacity period. The B.C. experience can be described i n si m i l a r fashion, though the actual phases occur at s i g n i f i c a n t l y l a t e r dates. NCHRP Report No. 122, Highway Research Board, (1971). 4 This generalized statement i s drawn from a reading of many studies r e l a t e d to the r o l e of transport i n development -notably Fromm (1965), Roberts ( 1 9 6 6 ) , Wilson (1966), Rimmer (197D, O'Connor (1965), Hawkins (1958 and i 9 6 0 ) , Brown ( 1 9 6 6 ) , U.S. Department of Commerce (1964). 5 This opinion has been confirmed i n discussions with o f f i c i a l s of the Department of Highways. The l e s s concrete but more powerful input to decisions has been p o l i c y determined outside the Department of Highways, e s p e c i a l l y concerning a l l o c a t i o n s to the inter-urban trunk system. 6 "Undifferentiated" i n that the automatic recorders do not d i s t i n g u i s h between dir e c t i o n s of t r a f f i c ; also, the t o t a l recorded i s divided by 2, as i f every vehicle had only 2 axles. 7 Conditions required f o r t h i s uniform pattern of spending are elaborated i n Chapter 3 , Section 2. 8 Winfrey and Zellner, NCHRP Report No. 122, op.cit., p. 3 , describe such a s i t u a t i o n . R. Lachene ( 1 9 6 5 ) , p. 1 8 3 - 9 6 ; E. Taaffe et a l . , (1963), p. 5 0 3 - 2 9 . 9 NCHRP Report No. 42, (1965). 10 Theoretical bases f o r such adjustments are set out i m B. Berry and W. Garrison, ( 1958), p. 304-11; J . Parr and K. Denike, ( 1 9 7 0 ) , p. 567, 5 8 6 ; M. W i l l s , ( 1 9 7 D , Ch. 5; and D. Winch ( 1 9 6 3 ) . 11 R. Stroup and L. Vargha ( 1961) , pp. 1-12. CHAPTER 2 ANTECEDENTS OF THE STUDY 2.1 TRANSPORTATION STUDIES IN GEOGRAPHY In t r a n s l a t i n g economic and s o c i a l behaviour into s p a t i a l terms, i t i s inevitable that transportation becomes a major concern to geographers. I t i s the means of l e a s t e f f o r t functions of human in t e r a c t i o n ; i t i s an important component i n production functions and demand curves; i t i s a permissive factor i n s p e c i a l i z a t i o n of production, i n chan-ges i n the range of markets, and i n the tendency towards perfect knowledge amongst economic e n t i t i e s . For stimulation and development of the economic body, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the economically backward countries, the c i r c u l a t o r y system has been given very close inspection. Regional geography has gradually increased i t s recognition of transportation as a moulding force on regional character. x The work of Ullman (1956), Isard (1956), and Garrison (1959-60) can be said to have established a foundation f o r transportation studies within geographic inquiry. The function and form dichotomy of geography has had i t s expression, too, i n transportation research. Questions of function came from the mainstream of economics into the 18 gravity model formulations and into the am p l i f i c a t i o n of central place theory and l a t e r into d i f f u s i o n studies. The most i n t e r e s t i n g treatment of form has been through network analysis. These models have provided geographers with a new perspective and a better framework on which to describe 2 s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . Flows of goods and people, choice and l o c a t i o n of routes, impacts of and adjustments to changes i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y , land use patterns, questions of central place functions and hierarchy have a l l been given a more r e a l i s t i c and complete treatment v i a network concepts and techniques. This thesis draws together two streams of interest* (1) the r o l e of transportation i n economic development, and (2) the structure of networks. E s p e c i a l l y over the , l a s t twenty years, i n the programs of a i d from abroad f o r underdeveloped countries, transport i n f r a s t r u c t u r e has been of prime importance. Only recently has there been some drawing back from t h i s position,-^ as expectations of r e s u l t s have not always been f u l f i l l e d . A c r i t i c a l aspect of invest-ment i s the new po t e n t i a l created? even more c r i t i c a l , where c a p i t a l i s very scarce, i s the degree to which that p o t e n t i a l has been r e a l i z e d . In the following chapters, part of the new poten t i a l created by road investment i n B r i t i s h Columbia w i l l be measured, and an attempt w i l l be made to indicate how that p o t e n t i a l has been r e a l i z e d . 20 2.2 DESCRIPTION OF TRANSPORT NETWORKS In the description of network structure, the abstrac-t i o n of the transport system from i t s broader s o c i a l and economic context seems to imply some deterministic dynamic of growth inherent i n the network i t s e l f . Some studies have constructed networks from models of transport development,-* or from models of economic behavior,^ or from models guided by a p a r t i c u l a r 7 constraint of length, cost, connectivity, etc. The assumption of consistent or co o l l y objective decision-making i s v i t a l , t o such models; but i t can be argued that there i s such v a r i a t i o n within p o l i c y objectives and decision-making that t h i s process, i t s e l f , becomes an important f a c t o r i n the r e a l i z e d structure o and q u a l i t y of networks. Considerations of " s o c i a l cohesion" or " p o l i t i c a l impact" or "minimum s o c i a l disruption" r e a l l y do inform many decisions on the provision of transport f a c i l i t i e s , yet they cannot be f u l l y b u i l t into the models constructed from empirical evidence elsewhere. This thesis w i l l attempt to discover, from the patterns of investment, some of the p o l i c y objectives which might have influenced a l l o c a t i o n s of investment i n B, C, The network w i l l then be seen as a composite of various motives, which cannot be f u l l y described by one summary measure, A measure of connectivity, or a c c e s s i b i l i t y , may provide a neat summary of a physical condition of the network; but i t t e l l s l i t t l e about the meaning of a c c e s s i b i l i t y to the various users and non-users of the network. 21 2 . 3 INVESTMENT IN HIGHWAY FACILITIES The description of road investment, following i n t h i s thesis, stays within the t r a d i t i o n of chorography. I t i s a f i r s t , useful step towards r e l a t i n g t h i s one quantity to other data. There i s a general pattern of development of roads i n B.C. that p a r t l y corresponds with the i d e a l - t y p i c a l sequence described by Taaffe et a l . ( 1 9 6 3 ) . I t i s probably more accurate to describe t h e i r "phases" as processes which had already been i n action well before t h i s study opens, and which coincide, overlap, or compete with each other over time o and over area.^ The processes seem to have been shaped more by deliberate p o l i c y , rather than by the "natural" or "spon-taneous" adjustments implied i n Taaffe's study. Another important difference i s that t h e i r model was unaffected by external land connections, whereas external connection has been a very powerful influence i n the development of roads i n B.C. The problems and adjustments involved i n considering external connection for a network, were treated by Kansky ( I963, p. 64), and by K i s s l i n g ( I968) f o r Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; however, the degree of weighting of nodes f o r the exogenous factor remains a contentious issue. Smith (I963) found d i s t o r t i o n i n the patterns of demand f o r f r e i g h t movement to and from border-area towns. Within the pattern of t o t a l spending, there are items of cost, the changing importance of which may indicate the objectives being pursued. For instance, there i s some trade-off between maintenance costs and construction costs, and between user costs and operator costs. The highway 22 engineering l i t e r a t u r e abound with t h e o r e t i c a l and empirical studies of such relationships, which can be roughly catego-r i z e d as those dealing with f a c i l i t i e s , " 1 ' 0 and those dealing with t r a f f i c . "*""*" The American Association of State Highway O f f i c i a l s , the Canadian Good Roads Association, the Highway Research Board and UK Road Research Laboratory publications have set up c r i t e r i a for the design, structure and materials considered necessary f o r various l e v e l s of service i n various physical and t r a f f i c conditions. The NCHRP Report No. 42 ( 1 9 6 7 ) has described the r e l a t i o n s h i p between construction and maintenance, a topic treated as well i n the exhaustive textbooks of Oblesby and Hewes ( I 9 6 3 ) and Woods, Berry and Goetz ( i 9 6 0 ) . These studies show that there are v i t a l techni-c a l considerations a f f e c t i n g the eventual structure and qu a l i t y of the network. The argument that engineering solutions are not necessarily optimal i n a s p a t i a l sense may well be coun-tered with the argument that many desirable s p a t i a l arrange-ments have no f e a s i b i l i t y i n engineering terms. 2.4 FLOWS, TRAFFIC BEHAVIOUR, AND SIMULATED TRAFFIC The study of t r a f f i c and flows moves highway engineering one step nearer to that realm of geography known as s p a t i a l analysis. Beckman ( I 9 6 7 ) , Quandt ( i 9 6 0 ) , and Ford and Fulker-son (1962) have explored the theory of flows i n networks, and George et a l . ( I 9 6 I ) and Gerlough and Capelle (1964) have theorized on t r a f f i c behaviour i n a l i n k . There has been much 2 3 empirical analysis of the behaviour of vehicles under d i f f e r e n t conditions. The AASHO Road Test has been the basis of highway economy studies since 1 9 5 9 . De Weille (1966) has compiled a si m i l a r series of tables, r e l a t i n g road design to vehicle running speeds, r e l a t i n g operating conditions to vehicle opera-t i n g costs, and so on. The Highway Research Board, an agency of the U.S. National Research Council, has c a r r i e d out many 1 2 studies on s p e c i f i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s . These findings provide an understanding of the varying cost of i n t e r a c t i o n under varying conditions, an inconstant r e l a t i o n s h i p that a f f e c t s the workings of the g r a v i t y model. Geographic inquiry accepts and uses such findings, absorbing them into a general concept of a c c e s s i b i l i t y . Gauthier ( 1968) and K i s s l i n g (1969) have converted te c h n i c a l data into generalized costs of movement. The apparently sensi-t i v e response of t r a f f i c flows, times and costs to d i f f e r e n t 13 f a c i l i t i e s , conditions and t r a f f i c composition, J suggests that s p a t i a l analysis should pay closer attention to the " f r i c t i o n " of movement - t h i s may have been somewhat neglected because of the concentration on nodes, urban centres, urban functions, etc. K i s s l i n g * s work has somewhat balanced that record i n studies r e l a t i n g economic indices to network measures. Theoretical formulations, including the gravity model, describe t r a f f i c as homogeneous. Empirical studies have attempted to provide a breakdown of the composition of t r a f f i c . 1 * * " This i s an important clue i n the geographer's understanding of the nature and extent of i n t e r a c t i o n , and of the s p a t i a l arrangements i t describes. The assumption of homogeneity of t r a f f i c i s as 24 flawed as an assumption of undifferentiated productive a c t i v i t y at a point of t r a f f i c generation; but the r e g u l a r i t i e s i n observed flows are not yet s u f f i c i e n t l y established to be usable from one case to another, a weakness with which most project evaluation or impact studies have to work. While some studies have translated i n t e r a c t i o n into t r a f f i c f l o w s , o t h e r s have used commodity fl o w s . 1 ^ In a l l cases, there i s an attempt to r e l a t e concrete phenomena to abstract concepts. The same attempt i s made i n r e l a t i n g con-cepts to routes, networks, and rank order of towns - another l e v e l of abstraction where " s p a t i a l a n a l y s i s " displaces the "geography of transportation," A hierarchy of complexity can be discerned amongst the phenomena and concepts used i n the analysis of s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s . At the base are raw or simple aspects of move-ment - vehicle counts, pedestrian counts, commuters, f r e i g h t rates, truck t r i p s , c a p i t a l movements, etc. At a second l e v e l , suggesting some simple patterns either i n a c t u a l i t y or i n one's way of observing the world, there occurs migration, commodity flows, bus timetables, land use d i s t r i b u t i o n s , newspaper c i r c u -l a t i o n , o r i g i n - d e s t i n a t i o n patterns. At a higher l e v e l , one r e f e r s to the abstract forms - hinterlands, service t r i b u t a r y areas, settlement patterns, urban place hierarchies, transport networks. The top l e v e l i s made up of the concepts, such as demand, in t e r a c t i o n , association, a c c e s s i b i l i t y , dominance. In the following chapters, the concept of a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i l l be given i d e n t i f i a b l e form by the use of networks, 1? and p r a c t i c a l 25 measurement by the observation of truck performance. 2 . 5 INVESTMENT, ACCESSIBILITY, AND ECONOMIC RESPONSE The r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment i n f a c i l i t i e s and improved a c c e s s i b i l i t y along a l i n k i s quite s t r a i g h t f o r -ward. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment and change over the whole network i s more involved. Burton ( I 9 6 2 ) provided a neat and simple treatment of the d i f f e r e n t gains r e s u l t i n g from the di f f e r e n t placement of investment i n a network. K i s s l i n g (1969) presented a method of measuring a " l i n k * s importance to an entire system". Werner (1968) suggested a more involved measurement of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between hinterland changes and network or route changes. The next step, r e l a t i n g investment and network changes to s o c i a l and economic change, i s a more tentative one. The response has to be simulated, or measured through a surrogate. Simulation by means of a gr a v i t y model has been questioned and refined by many writers, notably Carrothers (1956), Neidercom and Bechdolt ( 1 9 6 9 ) , Burch (1961) and B r i t t o n (1971). Because of changing parameters of i n t e r a c t i o n (such as t e r r a i n , or the seasonal demand f o r transportation), a gravity model has to be adjusted from case to case. In the B.C. economy, parameters of i n t e r a c t i o n vary from sub-region to sub-region, depending mainly on the degree of dependence on the metropolitan a r e a , 1 ^ the physical d e s i r a b i l i t y of an area, and the degree of d i f f i -culty of t r a v e l . Gravity models are even more suspect where there i s competition between modes of transport. 26 W i l l s (1971i p. 21) weighted distances between points by a scale r e l a t i n g t r a v e l speed to type of surface - a genera-l i z e d scale, since data l i m i t a t i o n s were quite severe. Evidence 20 from road user studies would suggest that the speed of 45 mph attributed to 2-lane paved roads i s too high, e s p e c i a l l y since the simulated flows were to be r e l a t e d to actual t r a f f i c flows of the summer months when congestion i s greatest. I f t h i s i s so, then i t might account for a portion of the unusually large 21 exponent of 2.7 which gave the best p r e d i c t i o n from the gra-v i t y model (Wills, 1971i p. 27). Further, h i s scale implied that gravel roads caused a 30 per cent greater r e s t r i c t i o n on movement than 2-lane paved roads 1 the r e s t r i c t i o n i s probably stronger than 30 per cent, since other elements apart from t r a v e l speed, such as disconfort, hazard, and wear and tear, 22 enter into the perception of distance. The measures of both r e s t r i c t i o n (denominator) and a t t r a c t i o n (numerator) become even more controversial when dealing with seasonal t r a f f i c , and with flows biased by t r a f f i c of a p a r t i c u l a r type. As for surrogates and indices of development, d i f f e r e n t measures are applicable i n d i f f e r e n t circumstances, p a r t i c u l a r l y depending on the maturity of the economy,2-* and on the main 24 function of the road improvement. I f the investment provided i n i t i a l access to a developed area, then t r a f f i c would be gene-rated quite early, J so than an index of a c t i v i t y r e l a t e d to road users or to higher-order functions would be appropriate. I f the investment provided access f o r road-oriented i n i t i a l development, then a suitable measure of response would be employment or production over a long term. I f an investment 27 r e l i e v e d congestion of e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , then suitable indices of response could be r e t a i l sales, or t r i p times, or t r a f f i c flows. In urban or peri-urban areas p a r t i c u l a r l y , land values are very sensitive to actual or expected changes i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y . On a very small scale, s i t e a t t r i b u t e s can be much affected by t r a f f i c patterns r e l a t e d to new invest-26 ment. Investment to s u b s t a n t i a l l y improve e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s w i l l probably cause a response i n t r a f f i c flows and f r e i g h t costs. In each case, there w i l l probably be changes i n h i e r a r c h i c a l relationships between urban centres over the long term, as the revised transport system helps to rearrange at t r i b u t e s of r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n . 2 ^ Improved road conditions and network structure w i l l mean d i f f e r e n t things to d i f f e r e n t users - the p r a c t i c a l i m p l i -cations of changed a c c e s s i b i l i t y are highly v a r i a b l e . Walters (1961) explains some of the reactions i n an urban s i t u a t i o n , with implications about the measures appropriate f o r assessing the effectiveness of road investment. Wheat ( I 9 6 9 ) showed that manufacturing a c t i v i t y can be r e l a t e d to freeway develop-ment under certa i n circumstances. Gauthier (1968) sought a response to network change i n the value of r e t a i l sales. Garrison ( 1 9 6 5 , p. 71-87) showed that integration between nodes, and the complexity of network flows, increase fa s t e r 28 than general economic or general network development. Kansky ( 1 9 6 3 , p. 41-52) demonstrated that d i f f e r e n t indices of economic a c t i v i t y are associated best with d i f f e r e n t measures of trans-port i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . 0 ' S u l l i v a n (1969) r e l a t e d d i f f e r e n t 28 l e v e l s of a c c e s s i b i l i t y to various economic indicators and found widely d i f f e r e n t strengths i n the associations. Kanaan (1965) found eight variables which needed to be taken together i n assessing the e f f e c t of network change i n S y r i a . A l l these studies emphasize that responses to l e v e l s and categories of transport investment are highly variable so that the indices of response, no matter how j u d i c i o u s l y chosen, can only be p a r t i a l . 2.6 SYNTHESIS OF THEMES AND INTERESTS IN THE LITERATURE This study draws on the extensive treatment of trans-port investment i n economic development. I t uses network analysis as a way of looking at change i n the highway system, but unlike other network studies i n geography, attempts to highlight the importance of investment p o l i c i e s and decisions as a factor i n the extent, q u a l i t y and structure of the B.C. road network. Investment has dramatically changed patterns of a c c e s s i b i l i t y . A c c e s s i b i l i t y , a concept having widely d i f f e r e n t meanings and p r a c t i c a l applications, w i l l be described i n terms of one class of road user. This description r e l i e s heavily on the work of K i s s l i n g (1969) and on the empirical data of the various Highway Research Board investigations. Indications of response to changed a c c e s s i b i l i t y w i l l be discussed i n an attempt to discover how changes work t h e i r way through user behaviour, to have some measurable economic impact. 29 REFERENCES: 1 See the reviews of B. Berry ( 1 9 5 9 ) ; J . Wheeler (1971) . 2 For an account of the range and variety of network analysis, see P. Haggett and R. Chorley, ( 1 9 6 9 ) . 3 Hawkins ( i 9 6 0 ) , Fromm ( 1 9 6 5 ) , Wilson et a l . , ( 1 9 6 6 ) , document many case studies of transport development projects. Roberts (1966) and Gauthier (1970) o f f e r some cautionary advice on the r o l e of transportation i n development; and B i r d s a l l (1971) o f f e r s some alt e r n a t i v e c r i t e r i a f o r evaluation of trans-port projects. Rimmer (1971) describes a s i t u a t i o n of road investment unbalancing the t o t a l transport system. 4 "The crux of a highway project i s not i t s putative revenue, but i t s c a t a l y t i c e f f e c t on economic development." Rimmer ( 1 9 7 D , P. 15. 5 Taaffe, M o r r i l l , and Gould ( 1 9 6 3 ) ; Kansky ( I 9 6 3 ) , Ch. 8; Garrison ( 1 9 6 5 ) , pp. 100-107. 6 R. Lachene (1965); P. Haggett (1965), p. 82; R. M e r r i l l ( 1 9 6 5 ) . 7 See the summary of such attempts i n C, Werner ( 1 9 6 8 ) ; also, M. Beckman (1967); Quandt ( i 9 6 0 ) and Garrison and Marble (1958), H a i k a l i s and Joseph ( 1961) . 8 Meinig (1962); Wolpert (1964; 1970). 9 See also Winfrey and Zellner*s description of road development, f n . 3» Chapter 1. 10 Canadian Good Roads Association (I963) and (1970); American Association of State Highway O f f i c i a l s (I960); Capelle et a l . (1968); Quandt ( i 9 6 0 ) ; H a i k a l i s and Joseph (1961); Woods et a l . ( i 9 6 0 ) ; Oglesby and Altenhoffen ( I 9 6 9 ) . 11 Beckman (1967); Ford and Fulkerson ( 1 9 6 2 ) ; Gerlough and Capelle ( 1 9 6 4 ) ; Plummer et a l . ( I 9 6 I ) ; Walters (1968); and George et a l . ( I 9 6 I ) . 12 For example, Sawhill and Firey ( 1 9 6 2 ) ; Stevens ( I 9 6 I ) ; Saal ( 1 9 5 0 ) ; Wagner and May ( i 9 6 0 ) ; Adkins et a l . (1967); Claffey ( i 9 6 0 ) ; Winfrey ( I 9 6 3 , 1969 and 1971) . 13 See general comments i n AASHO ( i 9 6 0 ) ; De Weille ( 1 9 6 6 ) ; NCHRP Report No. 122 ( 1 9 7 D . 14 NCHRP Reports 58, 70, 83, 8 9 ; Wagner and May ( i 9 6 0 ) ; Gwynn (1968); Plummer et a l . (1961); Wolfe ( I 9 6 9 ) . 30 15 J . Burch ( 1 9 6 l ) i B. Harris ( 1 9 6 4 ) : D. Starkie ( I 9 6 9 ) ; M. W i l l s (1971) . 16 W. Garrison and D. Marble ( 1 9 6 5 ) ; J . Nystuen and M. Dacey (1961); R. Smith ( 1 9 6 3 ) ; A. Scott ( 1967); L. Cummings (1967); J . B r i t t o n (1971) . 17 Drawing on the work of A. Shimbel ( 1 9 5 3 ) ; I». Katz (1953)? W. Garrison ( i 9 6 0 ) ; I. Burton ( 1 9 6 2 ) ; K. Kansky (1963)? C. K i s s l i n g ( I 9 6 9 ) . 18 Following the techniques used by Gauthier (1968); K i s s l i n g (1966 and 1 9 6 9)1 G r i f f i t h s (1968). 19 This observation drawn from large-scale (census d i v i s i o n ) data, i n K. Denike and R. Leigh, Regional Economic Development  i n B.C., unpub. mimeo, Department of Geography, UBC,(197l), p. 16; also, i n W i l l s , ( 1 9 7 D . p. 84. 20 DeWeille (1966), p. 14, pp. 49 -51 I HRB Bull..No. 306, (1961), p. 9» AASHO ( i 9 6 0 ) pp. 8 3 - 9 2 , 93-5? UK Road Research (196) p. 1 0 9 . 21 Compared with, say, J . Burch ( I 9 6 I ) who found an exponent of 2 suitable f o r simulating i n t e r a c t i o n along freeways; or Starkie ( 1 9 6 9 ) , who found a "best" exponent of 1 . 7 5 » or Helvig (1964) who used 1.5 f o r c a l i b r a t i n g a model of truck movements from Chicago. See also the comments of B, Harris ( 1 9 6 4 ) . 22 Hawkins ( i 9 6 0 ) ; NCHRP Report No. 122, p. 6 1 - 8 . Gauthier's truck cost estimates support the 30, per cent figure (Gauthier 1968, p. 82) i n B r a z i l . However, Heflebower*s estimates f o r trucks i n Venezuela suggests a r e s t r i c t i o n of about 100 per cent (in G. Fromm, 1965» p. 5 4 ) . In B.C., average d a i l y summer t r a f f i c between Kamloops and Princeton increased by about 90 per cent over 3 years, ( 1 9 5 6 - 5 9 ) . as the surface was upgraded and paved. 23 K. Denike (1971). PP. 2 0 - 1 ; W. Garrison (1965) and K. Kansky (1963) tested a number of indices to f i n d those which best matched network measures at d i f f e r e n t stages of development. 24 W. Garrison et a l . ( 1 9 5 9 ) , pp. 11-12. 25 U.S. Dept. of Commerce ( 1 9 6 4 ) , p. 15. 26 Garrison et a l . ( 1 9 5 9 ) ; U.S. Bureau of Commerce ( 1 9 6 4 ) ; Graybeal and G i f f o r d ( I 9 6 8 ) . 27 R. Lachene (1964), p. 193-5. 28 Also suggested by W i l l s (1971), p. 26. 31 CHAPTER 3 TOTAL SPENDING ON HIGHWAYS IN B.C. 19^6-71 f»BY DISTRICT 3 . 1 INTRODUCTION - AIMS AND SOURCES This chapter surveys spending on highways as i t was di s t r i b u t e d amongst d i s t r i c t s of the province and over time. I t also o f f e r s some " i d e a l patterns" which might have occurred under c e r t a i n conditions. The two perspectives are complemen-tary. The dictates of sequence and interdependence apply to d i s t r i b u t i o n s both over time and over area. Just as the physi-c a l environment causes d i s p a r i t i e s i n construction costs from area to area, so the economic environment, through i n f l a t i o n and variable factor composition, causes d i s p a r i t i e s i n the r e a l value of a l l o c a t i o n s from time to time. The figures are surveyed within e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s , and patterns are sought which might suggest p o l i c i e s i n e f f e c t from time to time. Description and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of patterns of spending i n B.C. require f i r s t of a l l a reduction i n the complexity of the data as published i n the Annual Reports of the Minister of Public Works (19^6-55) and of Highways (since 1 9 5 5 ) . I t might have been possible to extract summaries of major road develop-ments only, from the annual "Financial and Economic Review" -but t h i s i s at f a u l t , p r a c t i c a l l y , f o r ignoring about h a l f of 32 the t o t a l budget? and at f a u l t , conceptually, f o r ignoring the f a c t of interdependence of a l l items of spending, p a r t i -c u l a r l y interdependence between "normal" spending and "expan-sionary" or improvement" spending. 1 The operation and administration of the Highways Department i s organized into four regions and 3^ l o c a l d i s t r i c t s . The f i n a n c i a l accounting f o r the Annual Reports i s arranged according to e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s , which are e s s e n t i a l l y groupings of population having some homogeneity of i n t e r e s t and a c t i v i t i e s . The two types of d i v i s i o n coincide i n only a few cases. There i s no consistent or necessary connection between the population grouping and the t r a f f i c generation within, or the flow across, the d i s t r i c t . Since some e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s cut across t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g sub-systems or embrace more than one sub-system, an accounting r e l a t e d to sub-systems of the transport network would have been more useful f o r tying together investment, t r a f f i c flow and economic response. The present accounting of the Department seems designed to de f l e c t suggestions of unequal p o l i t i c a l influence i n some electorates. The number and shape of e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s have changed over the period (see Appendix I ) . Most of the changes took place i n 1966. Thus, the accounting f o r some stretches of road i s to be found i n d i f f e r e n t d i s t r i c t s over the period. Where possible, the accounting was traced back so that the aggregation used i n t h i s thesis i s f o r the d i s t r i c t s as i f they had been exactly as i n 1971 over the whole period. The most d r a s t i c re-arrangements, i n terms of importance of roads 33 and amounts of investment, were between West Vancouver, L i l l o o e t and Yale-Lillooet? between Similkameen and Yale-Lillooet} and between North Okanagan and Shuswap. To simplify descriptions, a l l the Vancouver d i s t r i c t s , the Burnaby d i s t r i c t s and New Westminster, were grouped as one; Delta was "re-formed" to include the present r i d i n g s of Delta, Langley, Surrey and Richmond. Coquitlam was gathered back into Dewdney. The North Vancouver r i d i n g s and West Vancouver - Howe Sound were joined together. Oak Bay was included with the "Headquarters" account. Thus, the data are summarized and pre-sented i n the form of "Headquarters" plus 31 other d i s t r i c t s . The f i n a n c i a l accounts d e t a i l the items of spending and t h e i r l o c a t i o n on a p a r t i c u l a r road. U n t i l 1956-57, mainte-nance and snow-clearing amounts were also described by l o c a t i o n . Since then, they have been given i n lump sums f o r each e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t . To seek out patterns i n the accounts, items were grouped into f i v e categories and two classes. Categories were made up oft constructionj surfacing and improvement} mainte-nance and minor improvements} snow-clearing} and surveys, rights-of-way, b e a u t i f i c a t i o n and l e g a l surveys. Classes were either trunk (main roads, a r t e r i a l s , inter-urban) or branch (feeders, l o c a l or farm roads), actual descriptions of which are set out i n Appendix I I . Except f o r the maintenance and snow-clearing items, the accounts can not be faulted f o r d e t a i l . The most severe l i m i t a t i o n , however, i s i n the shape and size of e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s . Generally, there i s l i t t l e correspondence apparent 34 between the nature of the road system and the nature of the area delimited by e l e c t o r a l d i v i s i o n s . This i s l a r g e l y i n e v i -table, since roads within areas are also serving other roads and a c t i v i t i e s belonging to other areas. The d i s p a r i t i e s i n s i z e , shape, road mileage and character of the reporting units have required a very restrained s t a t i s t i c a l treatment of the d a t a . 1 Because the units were not l o g i c a l l y r e l a t e d to the quantities they enclose, there i s no l o g i c a l measure for making the quantities immediately compar-able. The sequence of maps, following i n t h i s chapter, i s an attempt to f i n d a rationale for the v a r i a t i o n i n spending, and though the attempt does r e s u l t i n a better understanding, i t does not provide a consistent explanation. The possible factors influencing a d i s t r i c t ' s share of the t o t a l are discernible at an i n t u i t i v e l e v e l . However, too great a v a r i a b i l i t y remains within the factors themselves to draw them together into a general mathematical expression -such as trunk mileage, improved mileage, t e r r a i n , climate, municipal spending, population, stage of development, and existence of t r a n s - p r o v i n c i a l paths. As well, there are two very i n f l u e n t i a l variables - intended development and import-ance of external contacts - f o r which values are l a r g e l y indeterminate. A simple "model" or argument about the basis of spending i s therefore attempted i n the next section. I t provides a reference against which actual patterns of spending can be evaluated i n the following section. 35 3 . 2 A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF SPENDING The primitive stage of road transport i n f r a s t r u c t u r e generally consists of unconnected sub-systems. The e a r l i e s t phase of regionally-planned development involves basic i n t e r -connections between resource areas and transport break-points, and between resource areas and populated centres. A second phase of development i s characterized by integrative l i n k s between populated centres, and by demand-serving l i n k s of access f o r l e i s u r e and recreation purposes. I t i s suggested that the two processes - basic connec-t i o n and advancing integration - describe a very broad tendency of the growth of transport i n f r a s t r u c t u r e f o r a developing economy. Lachene (1965) found a l o g i c a l basis f o r the tendency while Taaffe et a l . (1963) synthesized a s i m i l a r model from experience i n under-developed countries. Kansky ( I 9 6 3 ) simu-lated such a development from mathematical re l a t i o n s h i p s between economic indices and network structure. The tendency w i l l be obscured from time to time by the necessary responses to newly-generated t r a f f i c ( i n the form of enlargement of e x i s t i n g connections), and to user-cost or operator-cost differences between parts of the whole system. Since the au t h o r i t i e s operate under a budget constraint, the f a c i l i t i e s provided can only s a t i s f y a ce r t a i n l e v e l of demand over a l i m i t e d period. In that i n t e r v a l , investment can be directed to other parts of the transport system, or to other s o c i a l needs, u n t i l increasing costs and congestion demonstrate the need f o r adjustment of the o r i g i n a l f a c i l i t i e s . The length of that i n t e r v a l w i l l depend 36 on the q u a l i t y of the o r i g i n a l f a c i l i t i e s , and on the rate of generation of t r a f f i c . The q u a l i t y of f a c i l i t i e s can i t s e l f be a f a c t o r i n the rate of t r a f f i c generation - along with 'other factors such as economic growth, supply of a l t e r n a t i v e modes of transport, the l e v e l of personal incomes, and the l e v e l of car ownership and usage. In 1945, basic connections existed between the popu-lated centres of B.C. (except into the Peace River d i s t r i c t , and from Revelstoke to the east). Compared with the present system, the l i n k s , as indicated by the published t o u r i s t maps, were generally of low r e l i a b i l i t y , low quality, and high user cost. Investment i n the f i r s t h a l f of the period 1946-71 necessarily concentrated on them. In l a t e r years, the choices on where to invest and on what to provide, have been more numerous. Reading the Annual Reports and discussions with employees of the Department of Highways, confirm that s t r i c t economic surveys of the cost-benefit or before-and-after type have been r a r e l y used. Decisions seem to have been based mainly on some general scheme of economic development, on undifferentiated t r a f f i c counts, and on informed guesses about the composition of t r a f f i c and the l i k e l y future demand f o r f a c i l i t i e s . An investment p o l i c y guided only by undifferentiated t r a f f i c counts over a long period, would respond to user demand, and would not make f u l l use of the influence available to the transport component i n achieving s o c i a l and economic objectives. Such a p o l i c y would r e s u l t i n a p a r t i c u l a r pattern of highway 37 investment - concentrated around populated areas, extending along a narrow band between populated and/or producing areas, and extending to the points of export and external contact. For t r a f f i c flows to be t r u l y r e f l e c t e d i n the pattern of road investment over a period, the following i d e a l conditions would be required: a) A l l d i s t r i c t s s t a r t i n g from the same stock of trans-port f a c i l i t i e s , including v e h i c l e s . A consistent r e l a t i o n s h i p between road transport and other means of transport and communication. A neutral p o l i c y towards economic and regional development. Equal impediment to road construction, i n a l l di r e c t i o n s . An assumption of no l o c a t i o n a l s h i f t s of economic a c t i v i t i e s to areas not connected to the e x i s t i n g network. A constant r e l a t i o n s h i p between t r a f f i c volume and the cost of f a c i l i t i e s needed to match that volume. g) Road requirements of the province being uninfluenced by the paths of external connection. h) A constant r e l a t i o n s h i p between the cost of f a c i l i t i e s and t h e i r contribution to network q u a l i t y . The exercise of set t i n g up a l o g i c a l model such as t h i s to i s o l a t e one r e l a t i o n s h i p i s not rendered pointless by the f i r s t breeze of r e a l i t y which w i l l , obviously, deny the assumptions. The model shows the l i k e l y d i f f i c u l t i e s and l i k e l y factors i n i n f e r r i n g an intention or a p o l i c y from an observed pattern. I t also suggests the possible degree of v a r i a b i l i t y i n a l l o c a t i o n s to i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s or stretches of road. 38 3 . 3 A FORMULA FOR AMOUNTS OF SPENDING? Before plunging into the wealth of information pro-vided by the published f i n a n c i a l accounts, i t i s worth consi-dering what r e a l l y major forces l i e behind a d i s t r i b u t i o n of road investment. The f i r s t i s population - roads are needed within and between most s e t t l e d areas. The second i s resources, which often require road connection f o r t h e i r development and f u l l e x p l o i t a t i o n . Roads are required to ports and markets, and i n the case of B.C., from the resource hinterland to the dominant metropolis. Thirdly, connections toother provinces make demands on the investment pattern. d i s t r i c t s , an attempt was made to d i s t r i b u t e i t ($134? m i l l i o n ) according to the factors of population, external connection, and distance from Vancouver. For t h i s exercise, distance was simply scaled from 30 (the Vancouver grouping) to 1 (such as A t l i n , North Peace River and MacKenzie); a p a r t i c u l a r d i s t r i c t was rated from Figure 2 , Chapter 3 , hy the number of d i s t r i c t s more remote from Vancouver which passed t h e i r t r a f f i c on to i t . This i s a recognition of the e f f e c t of through paths on t r a f f i c and road requirements f o r any "intervening" d i s t r i c t . The suggested r e l a t i o n s h i p of the three postulated factors is» Ix - expected spending i n d i s t r i c t x E - known actual cost of external connections P - population D - "distance" scale n - number of e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s Taking the actual amount spent i n the e l e c t o r a l Px Dx + Ex 39 Because of the importance of the population factor, and because of the population d i s t r i b u t i o n i n the province, the d i s t r i b u t i o n of investment from the above formula gave a tremendous exaggeration f o r the d i s t r i c t s i n the Lower Main-land and southern Vancouver Island, Vancouver actually-received $42 m i l l i o n over the p e r i o d i the "generated invest-ment" was $500 m i l l i o n . For southern Vancouver Island, actual was $78 m i l l i o n , generated was $151 m i l l i o n . The d i s p a r i t i e s i n populated areas are extreme, but two other factors operating together would have done something towards r e c o n c i l i n g the actual and generated patterns - one, the formula assumed that a l l d i s t r i c t s started i n 1946 from an equal supply of f a c i l i -t i e s , but r e a l l y , the populated d i s t r i c t s were already well supplied before then? and two, the actual a l l o c a t i o n s of public money to the populated d i s t r i c t s would have been much greater i f the amounts of road grants through municipalities had been known and included. The model gave a better simulation of the d i s t r i b u -t i o n of investment ($867 m i l l i o n ) a f t e r excluding the populated areas of southern Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland. The d i s t r i c t s of pronounced overestimation - Okanagan, Kamloops, Rossland-Trail, Kootenay - were againthose with concentrations of population. Prince Rupert and MacKenzie were overestimated, probably because of water transport serving t h e i r transport needs as much as road connections. Yale, fievelstoke, A t l i n and Omineca d i s t r i c t s were a l l noticeably underestimated. For the f i r s t two, the costs i n the Fraser Canyon and Rogers Pass 40 boosted t h e i r actual a l l o c a t i o n s ; A t l i n d i s t r i c t has received much attention f o r mining roads, and Omineca seems to have been"favoured" f o r having the Northern Transprovineial and the Stuart Lake road passing through i t . For the f i r s t d i s t r i b u t i o n ($1347 m i l l i o n ) the mean o f A c t u a A ; t S a i r e t i C a l * w a s a b o u t 7 0 f o t F o r t h e s e c o n d d i s t r i b u t i o n ( $ 8 6 7 ) , i t was about 3 5 $ . Obviously the hypothe-t i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n based on population, "distance" from Vancouver, and external connection, i s only a weak i n d i c a t i o n of the actual investment pattern. The basic flaw i s the unequal amounts of f a c i l i t i e s i n the d i s t r i c t s before 1 9 4 6 . The value of the exercise was to point out the areas of marked deviations, i n support of the suspected reasons f o r unequal amounts of spending, which were mainly the d i f f i c u l t y of construction i n some areas; the complex r e l a t i o n s h i p between size of population and road requirements; the deliberate p o l i c i e s of expansion; the importance of through t r a f f i c ; and the existence of special projects, notably hydro-electric development. Generally, "response to t r a f f i c flows", as measured by population and i t s p o s i t i o n i n through paths, does not seem to be a suitable standard by which to describe the d i s t r i b u t i o n of road investment i n B.C. 3 . 4 ACTUAL DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENT Figure 2 provides a summary of t o t a l spending over the period. S u p e r f i c i a l comparisons are to be discouraged, 42 because of the varying size and content of the e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s . The meaning of the pattern of investment i s ob-scured by t h i s f a c t and by the varying mileage within the d i s t r i c t s . Figure 3 shows the pattern of spending, s t i l l within the same i r r e g u l a r d i s t r i c t s , but standardized accor-ding to the mileage "open" i n March, 1962, I t provides a very d i f f e r e n t perspective. The enormous costs per mile i n the Lower Mainland r e f l e c t the impediment of reclaiming land from other uses (d, i n previous section), the escalating f a c i l i t y costs i n r e l a t i o n to increasing t r a f f i c (f, above), the e f f e c t of external connection, and the impediment of natural obstacles (Fraser River, and t e r r a i n from Burrard I n l e t to Squamish). Obtaining rights-of-way i n the North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby and Delta d i s t r i c t s , has averaged about 10-15$ of the t o t a l spending. In the sparsely s e t t l e d d i s t r i c t s l i k e Columbia and Omineca, i t was l e s s than Ifo. Also, i t i s reasonable to assume that higher q u a l i t y and higher capacity f a c i l i t i e s are provided i n areas having a r e l a t i v e l y high and consistent t r a f f i c flow, as opposed to the many I n t e r i o r areas where high l e v e l s of flow are experienced only on a few occasions i n the summer. Where d i f f i c u l t natural b a r r i e r s had to be bridged or breached, costs per mile f o r the d i s t r i c t were extraordina-r i l y high. The a l l o c a t i o n to Revelstoke-Slocan d i s t r i c t showed the expense of replacing the Big Bend Highway; i n Fort George d i s t r i c t , i t was the John Hart Highway and the Yellowhead 44 Highway: i n Prince Rupert, construction d i f f i c u l t i e s from the lower Skeena River to the c i t y i t s e l f . The a l l o c a t i o n s to the non-urban d i s t r i c t s are some-what depressed i n Figure 3 by the i n c l u s i o n i n the d i v i s o r of a l l "open" roads - earth, gravel and tarmac. By excluding the "earth" roads, and adjusting the d i v i s o r to include a l l "improved" roads ( i . e . , gravelled, and surfaced roads), a d i f f e r e n t pattern emerges i n Figure 4. One i s j u s t i f i e d i n ignoring the earth roads, since such a r e l a t i v e l y small cost per mile could be a t t r i b u t e d to them. Thus removing the ranching roads of Y a l e - L i l l o o e t and Cariboo d i s t r i c t s , v i r t u -a l l y doubles t h e i r cost per mile a l l o c a t i o n . S i m i l a r l y , there are notable changes i n the d i s t r i c t s of Peace River, Boundary-Similkameen, and Kootenay. The a l l o c a t i o n s according to Figure 4 are not e n t i r e l y s a t i s f a c t o r y as indicators of underlying p o l i c y . The d i f f e r -ences between neighbouring Kootenay and Nelson-Creston, or Omineca and Skeena, or North Okanagan and South Okanagan, are not to be explained by widely d i f f e r i n g t e r r a i n or the number of urban settlements. Since over the whole period, costs per mile on the trunk inter-urban roads have averaged roughly f i v e times those on the improved or l o c a l roads, an important variable behind the patterns of Figures 2, 3 and 4, i s the proportion of the t o t a l mileage being constructed and main-tained as part of the trunk system. Table I helps to explain some of the anomalies ex i s t i n g i n Figures 2, 3 and 4 - such as Rossland-Trail, Nelson-46 TABLE I INFLUENCE ON COST-PER-MILE OF THE TRUNK MILEAGE Trunk as % of Improved D i s t r i c t Mileage  over 50% Shuswap, Columbia, Fort George 40 - 50 Rossland-Trail, Nelson-Creston 3© - 4 0 Kootenay, South Peace, Skeena, Dewdney, Chilliwack 20 - 30 A l b e r n i , Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , Boundary-Similkameen, Kamloops, Omineca, Prince Rupert 10 - 20 Comox, Cariboo l e s s than 10 North Okanagan, South Okanagan, Revelstoke-Slocan, A t l i n , MacKenzie. Table I helps to explain some of the anomalies e x i s t i n g i n Figures 2 , 3 and 4 - such as Rossland-Trail, Nelson-Creston, Columbia, and Fort George. According to Table I, Shuswap "ought" to have been much higher. However, i n that d i s t r i c t , trunk roads remained close to the v a l l e y s , so that construction has been r e l a t i v e l y l e s s expensive. Possible reasons f o r the differences between Comox and Albern i , between Omineca and Skeena, between Cariboo and Kamloops, between Kootenay and Columbia, are suggested by Table I. The anomaly of Revelstoke-Slocan, and the difference between North Okanagan and South Okanagan, require further consideration. The extremely high cost per mile i n Revelstoke-Slocan i s due to the large amount of investment i n access roads to the hydro-electric development schemes on the Columbia River^ - over $30 m i l l i o n since 1 9 6 6 . In the Okanagan, one 47 of the more costly items a t t r i b u t a b l e to the South was the crossing of the Lake, e a r l i e r by f e r r i e s , l a t e r by bridge. Also, tarmac surfacing has been extended to a greater propor-t i o n of the mileage i n the South than i n the North. 3.5 POSSIBLE VALIDITY OF THE POSTULATED PATTERN The pattern of spending suggested e a r l i e r i n t h i s chapter emerges, though very generally, from Figure 4 when viewed i n conjunction with Table I. The southern quarter of Vancouver Island, and the Okanagan Valley, had benefited from road development before 1946 - hence t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y low al l o c a t i o n s i n 1946-71. External connection accounts f o r a large part of the investment i n Columbia, Revelstoke-Slocan, Fort George and Delta. Apart from these special cases, there remains a concentration of spending around the populated areas - Saanich, North Vancouver, Vancouver and Burnaby, Delta, Chilliwack, Dewdney, and Rossland-Trail. Also, there i s a concentration of spending along the routes between populated areas, indicated by the greater a l l o c a t i o n s i n d i s t r i c t s having a large proportion of trunk mileage. That the highway investment a l l o c a t i o n has been used f o r purposes of leading or f a c i l i t a t i n g economic a c t i v i t y i n cer t a i n areas, i s suggested by the r e l a t i v e l y high costs per mile i n Alberni, Comox, A t l i n and Peace River, when weighed against a general understanding of the type and degree of deve-lopment i n those areas. From the diagrams, the processes behind the pattern 48 of investment over the whole period, can be generally described as: a) f i l l i n g i n or upgrading the basic connections to population and resource centres, b) adjusting the roads i n areas of high population and t r a f f i c congestion, e) providing good qu a l i t y l i n k s as part of external connections, sometimes coincident with a), d) a s s i s t i n g a c t i v i t y i n remote areas ("remote" i n r e l a t i o n to the main portion of the network). 3 . 6 BREAKDOWN OF THE WHOLE PERIOD - CONSTRUCTION PRICE CHANGES Since the 1 9 4 6 - 7 1 period i s long enough to include d i f f e r e n t stages of road development, and d i f f e r e n t p r i o r i t i e s amongst the p o l i c y objectives, and since the unequal d i s t r i c t s are f i t t e d over areas of d i f f e r e n t character and d i f f e r e n t economic a c t i v i t y , then a more precise description can be achieved only by breaking the period into shorter spans. This should show road development as a dynamic process, able to serve d i f f e r e n t objectives i n d i f f e r e n t areas and at d i f f e r e n t times. The peculiar physiography and population d i s t r i b u t i o n of B.C. present s p e c i a l problems of investment a l l o c a t i o n . The obstacles are so severe, the separate l i n k s so long, that a programme of improvement requires more of large, all-at-onee inputs, rather than gradual extensions or upgrading. Only a very small proportion of the f i n a l benefits are obtainable from a p a r t i a l l y improved l i n k . The John Hart Highway, b u i l t i n the 49 l a t e 1940's, was of no benefit u n t i l a l l of i t was completed through to Dawson Creek. The same i s almost as true f o r the Yellowhead and North Thompson extensions to the Alberta border. Mountain passes and bridges can be regarded i n the same way: Rogers Pass, Salmo-Creston, Riehter Pass, and major bridges at B r i l l i a n t , Kelowna and Hudson's Hope, a l l required massive i n d i v i s i b l e investment over a number of years. The e f f e c t i s to make peaks and troughs i n the a l l o c a t i o n s according to d i s t r i c t . I t matters then, at what time a d i s t r i c t received a large proportion of i t s t o t a l . I f a pattern can be discerned from the timing of a l l o c a t i o n s , i t w i l l throw l i g h t on the motives behind road investment. I t matters, too, because of the changing cost of construction. A Highway Construction Price Index (HCPI) has been published by S t a t i s t i c s Canada, f o r each province, and f o r Canada as a whole, going back to 195o. The units of work have been held constant - such as an acre of clearing, a thousand cubic yards of l e v e l l i n g , a ton of surfacing and so on. ,J-'he changing prices are drawn from the tender bid of the contractor who was awarded the job. A l l contracts awarded i n a year are taken, then s t r a t i f i e d according to the nature of the work and the area of the province, i n an attempt to mini-mize the bias e f f e c t of d i f f i c u l t y of construction work. The HCPI does not r e l a t e to maintenance, minor improvements and survey work, which are a l l done by employees of the Department of Highways, I t i s quite clear from Figure 5 and confirmed i n 51 conversation with o f f i c i a l s of the Department of Highways, that the HCPI i s clo s e l y related to the amount of work a v a i l -able. In other words, contractors bid up prices i n the busy years, and l a t e r deflate t h e i r bids when competition i s keener. The HCPI shows a general tendency of decline from 1 9 5 6 to 1 9 6 3 , interrupted i n 1 9 5 9 - 6 0 by a sudden increase i n the amount of work av a i l a b l e . The general tendency r e f l e c t s the introduction of very large, labour-displacing machinery, and the entry of a number of new firms into the industry.^ Since I 9 6 3 , the HCPI has tended to r i s e back to the l e v e l s of the e a r l i e r , labour-intensive days. The peaks i n t o t a l spending correspond with (pro-v i n c i a l ) e l e c t i o n years. Road improvement, p a r t i c u l a r l y tarmac surfacing, i s a highly v i s i b l e ? and immediately e f f e c t i v e demonstration of a government at work. Local a c t i v i t y helps r e l i e v e unemployment and increase r e t a i l sales at the l o c a l l e v e l . Since the Dpartment of Highways has always operated on an annual budget (sometimes supplemented by Special Warrants issued through the Treasury Board), and hence has had a very r e s t r i c t e d horizon of planning, i t s investment operations have been p a r t i c u l a r l y susceptible to manipulation f o r short-term p o l i t i c a l impact. There i s a good case f o r a three-year c a p i t a l budget being allowed to the Department of Highways. By smoothing out the e l e c t i o n year peaks into three year averages, a calculated guess can be made as to the l e v e l of the HCPI without the i n f l a t i o n a r y pressure of e l e c t i o n years, Without that pressure, t o t a l spending from 1 9 5 6 to 1 9 7 1 would have been about $35 m i l l i o n l e s s than i t a c t u a l l y was. In other 52 words, the province might have gained more or better f a c i l i t i e s per d o l l a r i f the construction contracts had been l e t out evenly over the period. Generally, work done i n the 1961-64 period gave more "mileage" per d o l l a r than i n 1 9 5 6 - 5 8 or i n 1 9 6 8 - 7 1 . I f a d i s -t r i c t had i t s t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n concentrated i n that middle period, then i t probably gained r e l a t i v e l y more, i n terms of road f a c i l i t i e s , than i s apparent from the o v e r a l l investment fig u r e . I t would be possible, though very cumbersome, to stan-dardize the figure f o r each e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t i n each year since 1956-57» according to the HCPI. However, the t o t a l spen-ding figure includes a s i g n i f i c a n t l y large (20-40$) amount of work not r e f l e c t e d i n the HCPI - minor improvements, maintenance, snow removal, and surveys, performed by employees of the Depart-ment of Highways. I t i s more convenient to regard the figures of spending i n t h e i r current d o l l a r values, and to apply the HCPI only to those d i s t r i c t s having a pronounced concentration i n a period of noticeable i n f l a t i o n or d e f l a t i o n . 3 . 7 THE ALLOCATIONS OVER TIME The whole period has been subdivided into eight sub-periods, using the peak i n spending as a centre point f o r each subdivision. Half of the t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n was spent i n the l a s t 10 years. However, the increasing amounts of investment i n construction and maintenance since 1 9 5 9 , have only served to keep pace with i n f l a t i o n of p r i c e s . I f the i n f l a t i o n i n other 53 p r i c e s i s considered too - such as rights-of-way, day labour wages, materials - then the road f a c i l i t i e s of the province have probably been expanding at a slower rate i n each year since 1 9 5 9 - 6 0 . This confirms the d i v i s i o n of increasing p r i o r i t y / decreasing p r i o r i t y suggested i n the opening chapter. TABLE II BREAKDOWN OF SPENDING, BY PERIOD (Inel. Federal spending on Trans-Canada Highway) Period Current Dollars -millions-Constant 1961 Pol. Total % of Grand Av.per year Total io of Grand Av.per year 19^6-49 1 9 4 9 - 5 2 1 9 5 2 - 5 6 * 1 9 5 6 - 5 9 1959-62 1 9 6 2 - 6 5 1 9 6 5 - 6 8 1 9 6 8 - 7 1 5 2 . 9 8 5 . 3 142.4 2 2 9 . 6 244 .9 2 1 7 . 3 2 6 5 . 0 2 8 9 . 3 3 . 5 5 . 6 9 . 3 1 5 . 0 1 6 . 0 14 .2 1 7 . 4 1 9 . 0 1 7 . 6 28 . 4 3 5 . 6 7 6 . 5 81 .6 7 2 . 4 8 8 . 3 9 6 . 4 5 7 . 0 8 5 . 3 1 3 5 . 9 1 8 9 . 0 2 2 9 . 2 2 1 9 . 6 2 2 1 . 6 2 3 6 . 6 4 . 1 6 . 2 9 . 9 1 3 . 8 1 6 . 6 1 6 . 0 1 6 . 2 1 7 . 2 1 9 . 0 28 .4 3 9 . 0 63.O 7 6 . 3 7 3 . 2 7 3 . 9 7 8 . 9 Grand Totals 1 5 2 6 . 7 1 0 0 . 0 6 1 . 1 1 3 7 4 . 5 1 0 0 . 0 5 5 . 0 1 9 6 9 - 7 2 (est.) 3 3 5 . 0 1 1 1 . 7 2 6 1 . 0 8 7 . 0 * Note that 1952-56 covers four years. Also, note that the adjustments f o r the f i r s t three periods are based on an e s t i -mated HCPI. Source« Annual Reports, Minister of Highways 1955-6 to 1 9 7 0 - 7 1 Annual Reports, Minister of Public Works, 1 9 4 6 - 7 to 1 9 5 4 - 5 . The f a i r l y constant spending since i 9 6 0 also confirms the suspicion that the province i s "coasting" on the benefits of an e a r l i e r period of intensive development. When adjusted f o r i n f l a t i o n , the rate of spending has added roughly constant amounts 54 of f a c i l i t i e s throughout the 1960's whereas car ownership, private t r a v e l and truck operations have heen growing at an accelerating r a t e . Since most of the v i t a l connections have heen put i n , the next stage of spending may he f o r the "high-capacity period" described by Winfrey and Zellner. TABLE III INDICATORS OF ROAD USER ACTIVITY, B.C. 1 9 5 0 - 7 2 1 9 5 0 - 5 1 1 9 6 0 - 6 1 1 9 6 8 - 6 9 1971-72 R e t a i l Trade of Dealers, Garages, and Service Stns. $ m i l l i o n s 256 386 730 9 0 0 * * Gas Tax* and Licence Revenue $ m i l l i o n s 2 0 . 0 5 1 . 7 1 0 1 . 5 1 5 0 . 0 Licensed Vehicles i n B.C., private and commercial, thousands 288 584 988 1120** Tourist Passenger Vehicles from U.S. into B.C. thousands 353 448 1000 1 2 0 0 * * * Some changes occurred over the period i n the tax rate per gallon. I f the e a r l i e r rate s t i l l applied, then the c o l l e c t i o n s of 1 9 6 8 - 6 9 would have been about $85 m, and i n 1 9 7 1 - 7 2 , about $130 m. ** Estimates from 1971-72 p r o v i s i o n a l f i g u r e s . Source: B.C. Facts and S t a t i s t i c s , Dept. of Trade and Industry, V i c t o r i a , 1970, p. 60, p. 74. Fi n a n c i a l and Economic Review, Ministry of Finance, Victoria, 1961, 1 9 6 9 , 1972. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g to note from Table I I I that licensed vehicles and tax revenues "took o f f " i n the f i r s t decade, but that r e t a i l trade and tourism "took o f f " i n the second (see Fig.6, 55 following). The early "take-off" of ownership and f u e l con-sumed suggest that there was pent-up i n t e r n a l demand which, when r e a l i z e d , attracted further a c t i v i t y i n the form of more numerous or more expensive vehicles, equipment and services, and more t o u r i s t s from the U.S. F i g . 6 - Relation of Spending on Roads, to Indicators of User A c t i v i t y  a) Current Dollars 160. 120. 80-40-4950-1 1960-1 1970-1 M - Maintenance costs, i n $00,000. C - Total costs, i n $000,000. T - Taxes and licenses, i n $000,000. R - R e t a i l Trade i n $0,000,000. b) Constant Dollars 1950-1 1960-1 1970-1 Ca - Total cost, adjusted, i n $ m i l l i o n . F - Rural T r a f f i c Flow Index 1954 = 100 L - Licensed vehicles i n B.C. (x 10,000) V - Tourist vehicles from U.S, (x 10,000) Sources $ As i n T a b l e l l l , also Annual Reports, Minister of Highways; S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 62 . 5 2 0 , (see footnote 4, t h i s chapter). Figure 6 shows that t o t a l spending on roads, (exclu-ding the F e r r i e s Division) has declined as a percentage of revenue c o l l e c t e d from road users - from about 200$ i n 1957, 56 to around 100% i n recent years. What proportion of user taxes should be reinvested, i s a very controversial issue, and i t i s not simply a question of one d o l l a r amount re l a t e d to another 7 d o l l a r amount. There are many other i n d i r e c t or i n v i s i b l e investments made by sections of society on behalf of road users, such as p r o v i n c i a l parks, police patrols, bus operation subsidies, commuter parking space. On the other hand, road users contribute more than just f u e l taxes and licenses, through such things as sales tax on automobile accessories, income tax on commercial operators, f i n e s , camping and parking fees. o Without going into the area of s o c i a l and economic p r i o r i t i e s , i t i s enough to note that the early importance of road invest-ment has been r e l a t i v e l y diminished i n recent years. Figure 6a deals with amounts subject to varying degrees of i n f l a t i o n . Figure 6b r e l a t e s quantities of constant value to the amounts of spending adjusted by the HCPI to constant (1961) d o l l a r s . The adjustment i s approximate, since the main-tenance and day labour operations have been treated by the HCPI, although they were not included i n the calculations by S t a t i s t i c s Canada to produce that Index. I t i s probable, how-ever, that i n f l a t i o n f o r those items has been greater than f o r construction alone, so that the adjustment i s somewhat conser-vative. S t i l l , Figure 6b does show how spending on roads went f a r ahead of users and v i s i t o r s i n the 1950's and early 1960's, but slipped back i n recent years. I t has been shown elsewhere^ that "miles t r a v l l e d per year" increases as a person's dispos-able income increases, and further, i t increases as the q u a l i t y of roads and t o u r i s t amenities are improved. That these things have been happening i n B.C. i s indicated i n Figure 6b by the r u r a l t r a f f i c flow index (average d a i l y summer t r a f f i c f o r 30 points i n the i n t e r i o r , plus Port Mann and Patullo b r i d g e s ) . 1 0 This index c l e a r l y shows that the gap between f a c i l i t i e s and use widened over the l a s t 10 years, more than i s apparent from the current d o l l a r figures i n Figure 6 a . The contention that pressure has been bu i l d i n g up for a new period of more rapid expansion, i s supported i n both diagrams by the sharp upward turn i n recent spending. Part of t h i s i s due to the extension-type routes ( i n the north of Comox d i s t r i c t , i n A t l i n , i n the C h i l c o t i n , and to Mac-kenzie) and part of i t i s due to the f i n a l stages of the Yellowhead and North Thompson connections to Alberta. But the routes which have been recently r e c e i v i n g most attention are the Northern Transprovineial, e s p e c i a l l y along the lower Skeena River; the Trans-Canada on the east side of Kamloops; the Southern Transprovincial south of Nelson and west of Princeton; the Lougheed Highway from Agassiz to Haig; the Upper Levels Highway, the Knight Street bridge, and the P a t r i c i a Bay highway. The greatly increased attention to urban t r a f f i c needs i s i n accordance with the c y c l i c nature of road development. 3 . 8 DISTRICTS' ALLOCATIONS OVER TIME Certain d i s t r i c t s group together i n c e r t a i n time periods (Table IV), and suggest the main concerns of the 58 a u t h o r i t i e s at d i f f e r e n t times. TABLE IV GROUPING OF DISTRICTS ACCORDING TO THE SUB-PERIOD OF THEIR LARGEST SHARE OF TOTAL SPENDING 1946-49 Comox, Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , Boundary-Similkameen, Nelson-Creston, South Peace. 1 9 4 9 - 5 2 Cowiehan, Dewdney, Kootenay, Cariboo. 1 9 5 2 - 5 6 Nanaimo, South Okanagan, North Okanagan, Shuswap, Omineca, MacKenzie. 1 9 5 6 - 5 9 North Vancouver, Chilliwack, Columbia. 1 9 5 9 - 6 2 Vancouver & Burnaby, Revelstoke-Slocan, Rossland-T r a i l , A t l i n , 1 9 6 2 - 6 5 Delta. 1 9 6 5 - 6 8 Kamloops, Fort George. 1968-71 Saanich, Alberni, Dewdney (same as 1 9 4 9 - 5 2 ) , North Peace, Skeena, Prince Rupert. NOTEt "Groupings" only are used, and not anything more d e f i -n i t i v e . This " s o f t " treatment i s due to the nature of reporting units and t h e i r quantities. The a c t i v i t y which gave likeness to the d i s t r i c t s i n the f i r s t 10 years was the development of trunk l i n k s f o r the " p u l l i n g together" of the province - f o r example, from Courte-nay to Campbell River, from Hope through to Osoyoos, from Nelson across Kootenay Lake and south to Creston, the John Hart Highway, and from Cranbrook through to Alberta. In the following 10 years, the Trans-Canada dominated a l l a c t i v i t y . The d i f f i c u l t Sheep Lake section of the Southern Transprovin-c i a l affected the a l l o c a t i o n to Rossland-Trail; and i n A t l i n , there was much concern with the Stewart-Cassiar road. The 1 9 6 5 - 6 8 period was dominated by the Yellowhead and North Thompson routes - the d i s t r i c t s of Kamloops and Fort 59 George claimed an extraordinary 2 5 % of the t o t a l spent i n a l l d i s t r i c t s . There already were railways serving the f o r e s t product industries along the Fraser and North Thompson Val-leys, so that these routes were not of the pioneering type -probably they were intended to make easier inter-urban contact (Vancouver - Edmonton and Prince George - Edmonton -Calgary), and to complete new and i n t e r e s t i n g c i r c u i t s f o r t o u r i s t s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r those using the highly a t t r a c t i v e Banff-Jasper route i n Alberta. Further, the North Thompson route draws t r a f f i c o f f the Trans-Canada east of Kamloops, thus delaying the need f o r adjustment of that highway. The Yellowhead accentuates the p o s i t i o n of Prince George as a hub c i t y , and w i l l c e r t a i n l y have encouraged more t e r t i a r y a c t i v i t y to complement the basic manufacturing which moved i n during the 1960's, than would have occurred without the connection to Alberta. There i s a mixture of a c t i v i t i e s among the d i s t r i c t s included i n the most recent period (Table IV), and t h i s mix-ture r e f l e c t s the increasing range of f i n e r choices open to the a u t h o r i t i e s . For Dewdney d i s t r i c t , the investment has been to r e l i e v e congestion, by providing the north bank exten-sion of the Lougheed Highway as an alternate to the Hope -Chilliwack section of the 401. Congestion has also forced the large investment i n Saanich, f o r the widening and improving of the e x i s t i n g l i n k between V i c t o r i a and Swartz Bay f e r r y termi-n a l . In Alberni, there has been a recent e f f o r t to provide the basic l i n k s of good q u a l i t y into Tofino and Gold River. 60 Major improvements to the e x i s t i n g North Transprovincial High-way show up i n Skeena and Prince Rupert. In North Peace d i s t r i c t , completion of the roads associated with the W.A.C. Bennett Dam was carried out i n the l a s t sub-period - probably a case of c a p i t a l substitution, completing the l i n k to a standard well above current needs, to avoid protracted mainte-nance costs and the start-up costs of contractors at a l a t e r date. Again the high degree of d i f f i c u l t y i n road con-st r u c t i o n i n t h i s province has an e f f e c t on the grouping i n Table IV. A commitment of p o l i c y to improve access to c e r t a i n d i s t r i c t s equally, does not r e s u l t i n an equal a l l o c a t i o n of investment, mainly because of the timing and d i f f i c u l t y of overcoming obstacles. There may be eases where i n f a c t , simi-l a r p r i o r i t y was given to a number of d i s t r i c t s , but resulted i n v a s t l y d i f f e r e n t a l l o c a t i o n s . Figure 7 i l l u s t r a t e s the e f f e c t of commitments to construct or improve high-cost i n d i v i s i b l e connections. In North Vancouver, the peak represents spending on the Upper Levels Highway, and the Squamish Highway; i n Delta, i t was the k 0 1 and the Deas Throughway occurring consecutively? i n Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , i t was f i r s t l y the Hope-Princeton connection, and l a t e r the major improvements to the Fraser Canyon route. Kamloops was influenced more by the North Thompson route than by e a r l i e r work on the Trans-Canada. The Yellowhead Highway stands out dramatically f o r Fort George. The f i r s t peak i n Revelstoke-Slocan indicates the work on the Rogers Pass route; 20h 15 -% 10 1946-7 1968-71 NORTH VANCOUVER DELTA Y A L E - L I L L O O E T KAMLOOPS FORT GEORGE R E V E L S T O K E - S L O C A N Fig 7. Share of Total Spending according to sub-periods, for selected districts, (dotted line indicates % share over whole period). ON 62 and the second peak r e f l e c t s the provision of access to hydro-electric development projects along the Columbia River. 3 . 9 EMPHASIS WITHIN SUB-PERIODS In the previous section, changing a l l o c a t i o n s among the d i s t r i c t s were scanned f o r indicators of underlying p o l i c y . The grouping of d i s t r i c t s suggested some p o l i c i e s at work, inferences about which would be tempered by the varying degree of d i f f i c u l t y i n construction being undertaken. Now i f the t o t a l a l l o c a t i o n to a d i s t r i c t f o r the period 1 9 4 6 - ? 1 i s taken, and subdivided according to the share f a l l i n g into each sub-period, a d i f f e r e n t pattern w i l l emerge. This new perspective i n e f f e c t "standardizes" the size , physiography and population v a r i a b i l i t y between d i s t r i c t s . Because t o t a l spending has been increasing generally over the period, i t might be expected at f i r s t that the most recent sub-period would have contributed most to the t o t a l f o r a d i s t r i c t , and that any d i s t r i c t which had i t s largest share i n an e a r l i e r sub-period, p a r t i c u l a r l y before 1 9 5 6 , must have been re c e i v i n g an es p e c i a l l y high p r i o r i t y . The e f f e c t of generally increasing budgets (see Table V) i s shown by the smaller grouping i n the f i r s t decade, and the larger grouping i n the l a s t decade, when compared with Table IV. I f i t i s assumed that t r a f f i c flow has been increas-ing i n a l l parts of the province, then i t would seem that the f i r s t f i v e d i s t r i c t s l i s t e d i n Table V would soon be receiving 63 greater p r i o r i t y f o r the r e l i e f of t r a f f i c pressure. TABLE V GROUPING OF DISTRICTS ACCORDING TO THE SUB-PERIOD OF THEIR MOST INTENSIVE ACTIVITY (CURRENT DOLLARS) 1Q2*6->+9 None 1949-52 Cowichan 1952-56 Esquimalt, South Okanagan, North Okanagan, MacKenzie 1956-59 North Vancouver, Chilliwack, Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , Kootenay, Columbia 1959-62 Vancouver-Burnaby, Delta, Rossland-Trail, Revelstoke-Slocan 1962-65 Boundary-Similkameen, Nelson-Creston 1965-68 Kamloops, Fort George, South Peace 1968-71 Alberni, Comox, North Peace, A t l i n j and Saanich, Nanaimo, Dewdney, Shuswap, Cariboo, Omineca, Skeena, Prince Rupert, In f a c t , the percentages f o r each of those d i s t r i c t s have r i s e n i n the l a s t few years, an i n d i c a t i o n of the c y c l i c need behind the provision of road f a c i l i t i e s . For the l a s t eight d i s t r i c t s grouped i n 1 9 6 8 - 7 1 , the greater part of investment was to r e l i e v e t r a f f i c congestion, or to upgrade the f a c i l i t i e s to match the increased l e v e l of usage and desired standard of service. In the other four d i s t r i c t s of the l a s t sub-period, investment was mainly to provide basic linkages of the exten-sion or pioneering type. The very large, i n d i v i s i b l e investments group the d i s t r i c t s i n the middle periods. Work on the Trans-Canada was the main p r i o r i t y of the 1956-62 period. For 1962-65, i t was the Salmo-Creston l i n k and the Richter Pass. In 1965-68, road 64 bu i l d i n g f o r the Peace River Dam project boosted the a l l o c a -t i o n i n South Peace d i s t r i c t . Much of the increasing budget has been consumed by i n f l a t i o n , and has not resulted i n s i m i l a r l y increasing f a c i -l i t i e s . A truer picture of the p r i o r i t y given to p a r t i c u l a r d i s t r i c t s can only be gained through an adjustment of spend-ing, to take account of i n f l a t i o n . Changes to Table V as a r e s u l t of t h i s adjustment, are n e g l i g i b l e - only four d i s t r i c t s changed sub-periods. But because of the varying a l l o c a t i o n s to d i s t r i c t s i n d i f f e r e n t sub-periods, the e f f e c t of i n f l a t i o n was more severe i n some than i n others. Using the HCPI as an approximate regulator, the "cost" of i n f l a t i o n throughout the 1946-71 period has averaged just over 13$. Table VI shows the incidence of that i n f l a t i o n over the d i s t r i c t s . TABLE VI PER CENT REDUCTION FROM 1946-71 TOTAL, AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR INFLATION 8 Delta, Boundary-Similkameen 9 None 10 Y a l e - L i l l o o e t 11 Cowichan, Vancouver-Burnaby, Nelson-Creston 12 South Okanagan, Rossland-Trail, Kootenay, South Peace 13 Esquimalt, Comox, Chilliwack, North Okanagan, Columbia Average 14 Nanaimo, Dewdney, Shuswap, Cariboo, Omineca, A t l i n , MacKenzie 15 North Vancouver, Revelstoke-Slocan 16 Kamloops, Skeena 17 Fort George, North Peace 18 Saanich, Alberni 21 Prince Rupert 65 Saanich d i s t r i c t has probably been affected more than any other by i n f l a t i o n of construction and other p r i c e s . A large portion of recent spending there was fo r buying rights-of-way, costs of which have c e r t a i n l y r i s e n f a s t e r since the I 9 6 I base year than the price of units of road construction. Table VI emphasizes that i n the comparison of d i s t r i c t s ' a l l o c a t i o n s , d i s t r i b u t i o n over time-periods i s an important f a c t o r . The d i f f e r e n t shaped p r o f i l e s i n Figure 8 r e f l e c t d i f f e r e n t stages of development and the d i f f e r e n t demands on the road system. In Comox, the basic connections are s t i l l being put i n ; i n Revelstoke-Slocan and Fort George, the major obstacles have been overcome. The main roads through Omineca and Cariboo are being upgraded. The recent large shares i n Ya l e - L i l l o o e t , North Okanagan, Saanich and North Vancouwer, r e f l e c t measures being taken to r e l i e v e congestion on main throughways. The inflation-gap has increased i n the l a t e s t period. The cycle of provision of road f a c i l i t i e s has come round to r e l i e f of urban and semi-urban congestion, i n areas of very high non-building costs such as land reclamation, l e g a l surveys, t r a f f i c disruption, and coordination with other u t i l i t i e s . These two things combined mean that the r e a l gain i n actual f a c i l i t i e s i s now much les s than i t was a decade ago, and that current spending should be measured against current needs, not against previous l e v e l s of spending. The p r o f i l e s i n Figure 8 show a concentration of spending i n just one or two sub-periods. This again emphasizes 66 Fig 8. Distribution of District Totals, according to sub-period 1946-71 (plotted for 3-ycar averages). is adjusted for inflation _^  J I _J I I - J L I I I I 1 , 1 I L ' • ' • ' I I I 67 the occurrence of large i n d i v i s i b l e investments, a problem i n looking at the a l l o c a t i o n s over time. The early commit-ments to v i t a l l i n k s stand out - from Hope through to Osoyoos, from Prince George to Peace River, and so on. The dominant invluence of the Trans-Canada project i s very pronounced (especially since construction prices were declining i n the middle period). The attention to d i s t r i c t s o f f the Trans-Canada route i s indicated i n the l a s t two sub-periods (Table V), as f a c i l i t i e s elsewhere were upgraded to a similarly high standard, (Omineca, Skeena, Prince Rupert, South Peace, Cariboo), and as new f a c i l i t i e s were extended (Comox, Alberni, Dewdney, A t l i n , and Cariboo). 3.10 THE TOTAL ALLOCATION REVIEWED The dominant processes revealed i n the inspection of a l l o c a t i o n s over time and area are mainly four,and f a l l i n some temporal order: basic connections - f i r s t l y to Peace River and Hope-Princeton, more recently to Kelsey Bay, Port Hardy, Tofino, C h i l c o t i n j external connections - notably the Trans-Canada, Deas Throughway, Yellowhead and North Thompson l i n k s j l o c a l i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n - e s p e c i a l l y farm and t o u r i s t roads, i n Okanagan and Cariboo p a r t i c u l a r l y ; improvement, r e l i e f , replacement - these are usually around urban areas, and at rapi d l y escalating costs. A v a r i a t i o n of the process of basic connection has been extension or pioneering, as i n A t l i n , or to Stuart Lake i n Omineca. 68 The pattern of investment has frequently revealed the d i f f i c u l t y of road-building i n the province, the conse-quent "lumpiness" of investment, and the highly variable per mile cost of l i n k s . The pattern showed the l i m i t e d choice amongst urgent needs i n the early years, compared with the wider range of al t e r n a t i v e choices e x i s t i n g today. In order to decide amongst these f i n e r choices, there i s a greater need fo r a d e f i n i t i o n of p o l i c y objectives, a longer planning horizon, and more measureable input to the investment decision. Although i t i s somewhat obscured by the peculiar arrangement of accounting d i s t r i c t s , there has been a pattern of spending around and between areas of concentrated popula-ti o n , not completely disturbed by d i s p a r i t i e s of construction costs or development p o l i c i e s . I t was possible to discover some of the major factors underlying the general pattern - population, distance, existence of through paths, and external connection were dominant. Proportion of trunk mileage, proportion of improved mileage, t e r r a i n and climate make up a second group of impor-tant f a c t o r s . There were suggestive deviations from the general pattern - such as the roads for hydro-electric development, or f o r pioneering, or f o r t o u r i s t c i r c u i t s . Such roads, i n support of s p e c i a l objectives, have taken a s i g n i f i c a n t pro-portion of the spending i n A t l i n , Prince Rupert, Comox, Peace River, Fort George, Kamloops, Revelstoke-Slocan, Omineca, and Cariboo. 69 The d i s t r i b u t i o n of a d i s t r i c t ' s share over d i f f e -rent time periods indicated the changing p r i o r i t i e s i n provision of f a c i l i t i e s . There i s some evidence of sequence and inter-dependence, but the non-homogenous reporting units disturbed such patterns. There has been a peaking of a c t i v i t y around e l e c t i o n years, which has brought on some extra costs i n the form of i n f l a t e d contract p r i c e s . Extra spending i n e l e c t i o n years was generally given over to some large contracts of recon-struction and paving, and to increased l o c a l a c t i v i t y of maintenance and improvement. The f i r s t type i s very " v i s i b l e " to the public generally; the second type increases l o c a l employment and l o c a l incomes d i r e c t l y . Construction prices have r i s e n over the l a s t ten years, which r e f l e c t s increasing wages and perhaps the bias of more d i f f i c u l t work i n remoter areas (Skeena, Port MacNeil, C h i l c o t i n , Lougheed). Interpretation of the pattern of spending was tempered by the concentrations i n times of high or low con-st r u c t i o n costs. The e f f e c t of i n f l a t i o n over the period has been unevenly spread amongst the d i s t r i c t s . The approach to in t e r p r e t a t i o n of the data on spending - through hypothesising some i d e a l pattern out of experience elsewhere and l o g i c a l deductions - provided a useful perspective on likenesses and deviations to the pattern. I t helped to show up the stronger group of factors, e x i s t i n g amongst many others, which influence a pattern of investment, but which may not become obvious i f one works outward from the data to the elements. 70 REFERENCES : 1 Support f o r the " s o f t " treatment eomes from comments i n Robinson X1956); Thomas and Anderson ( 1 9 6 5 ) ; Robinson and Caroe ( 1 9 6 7 ) . 2 "Open", i n the d e f i n i t i o n of the Department of Highways, includes a l l roads improved beyond the "clearing only" stage. 1962 was chosen since i t marks a plateau of both spending and road extension, f o r the whole period. 3 A large proportion of these costs has been repaid by the B.C. Hydro Corporation to the Department of Highways. In the treatment of t o t a l spending on roads, these repayments have been included, since they represent a r e a l cost to the Province, and a r e a l addition to the t o t a l stock of road f a c i l i t i e s . 4 Highway Construction Price Index, S t a t i s t i c s Canada Series 6 2 5 2 0 . Description of sources, uses, and interpreta-t i o n given i n Sept. 1 9 6 2 , e d i t i o n . 5 1957-8 and 1963-4 were years of approximately equal spending. 58 contractors were present i n the f i r s t year, absent i n the second; 76 were absent i n the f i r s t , present i n l a t e r year. Only 40 were present i n both l i s t s of tenders. Source: Annual Report, Minister of Highways, 1 9 5 7 - 8 , p. 2 3 -3 3 ; 1963-4, p. 6 3 - 7 8 . 6 The deflationary e f f e c t on the HCPI of more intense competition i n the slack years has been taken into the "guess". This increased competition would r e s u l t from the a t t r a c t i o n of new firms during the busy period. 7 Commission of Inquiry into Road User Charges, 1 9 5 9 , V i c t o r i a , B. C. 8 A.A. Walters, The Economics of Road User Charges, ( 1968) also, Walters ( 1 9 6 1 ) . 9 Highway Research Board, NCHRP Report No. 1 2 2 , p. 7 9 , U.S. Bureau of Public Roads, Guidelines f o r T r i p Generation  Analysis, I 9 6 7 , p. 1 2 . Less conclusive, but suggestive, was Garrison, ( 1 9 5 6 ) , p. 2 8 0 - 8 8 . 10 Flow index, 1954 = 1 0 0 , 1959 - 1 6 5 , 1964 = 2 3 5 , 1971 = 4 0 3 . CHAPTER 4 SPENDING ON B.C. HIGHWAYS, 1946-71, ACCORDING TO CATEGORIES 4.1 PURPOSE OF THE CHAPTER The previous chapter described the pattern of t o t a l spending over time and over area. Within the t o t a l , there were i d e n t i f i e d f i v e categories and two classes of items of spending. I t i s suggested that a l l these items are really-interdependent, and that inspection of t h e i r shares over time and area w i l l o f f e r some insig h t s on the intentions of the au t h o r i t i e s . A hypothetical sequence of spending, based on a process of integration of an already s e t t l e d area, i s offered as a way of approaching description of the B.C. experience of road development. Development of a branch system might e n t a i l development of the trunk system, or might be a substitute f o r i t . Provision of high standard trunks might excite a l o c a l demand f o r development of apparently i n f e r i o r branch roads. Trunk roads might be adjusted to discourage or avoid l o c a l branch t r a f f i c . As f o r the categories, maintenance and c a p i t a l costs may be mutually substitutable to some degree. Survey work indicates the opening up of new routes or the realignement of ex i s t i n g ones. Right-of-way costs, which are generally lumped into construction costs, w i l l t e l l of the 71 72 s p e c i f i c d i f f i c u l t i e s of road provision i n some areas. Gravelling, surfacing, or re-surfacing costs may indicate where the au t h o r i t i e s perceive a build-up i n t r a f f i c flow, or the need f o r preventive maintenance. Disaggregation of the gross figures i n t h i s manner should provide a better understanding of the pattern and purposes of investment. 4 . 2 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRUNK DEVELOPMENT AND BRANCH DEVELOPMENT By d e f i n i t i o n , trunks serve points i n the r e a l world - they are usually "downtown" to "downtown". Only a very small proportion of t o t a l t r a f f i c has immediate access to them ( i . e . , to or i g i n s and destinations located on trunks). Branches, again by d e f i n i t i o n , draw or d i s t r i b u t e t r a f f i c from or to these places. Increasing economic a c t i v i t y general l y requires more t r a f f i c and more space, the former demanding increased capacity or q u a l i t y of f a c i l i t i e s , the l a t t e r demanding extension of f a c i l i t i e s . Over a long period of development of a road system, with t r a f f i c flows generally increasing, one might expect a tendency to spend an increas-ing proportion on the branch or feeder or "back-route" roads (B). Given a demand-led investment programme, then l o g i c a l l y , t h i s general tendency would be interrupted from time to time by spending on the trunk system (T), to r e l i e v e congestion and maintenance costs occurring with increased t r a f f i c volume. At high l e v e l s of urban development, trunk spending w i l l again be dominant, to cater f o r inter-urban complementarity, as 73 happened with the U.S. in t e r s t a t e freeway system. A graph of the T/B r a t i o w i l l describe a series of waves over time and, perhaps, also over area. The ar e a l differences i n height and frequency of waves would be due to the r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n of a d i s t r i c t i n the t o t a l pattern of t r a f f i c flows. Those areas near the centre of a network, i n terms of t r a f f i c flows, would experience the e a r l i e r waves of T development. Such simple p r o f i l e s would depend on the au t h o r i t i e s following a neutral, demand-led programme of investment. Fi g . 9 - Hypothetical Presentation of Trunk/Branch Ratio of Spending  a) "Central" area b) "Peripheral" area 25 years 25 years Figure 9 i s an i d e a l i z e d representation of the pattern one might expect i n a central and i n a peripheral area of the road system. The frequency of the T crests would depend on the q u a l i t y and capacity of the e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , together with the rate of generation of t r a f f i c . I f the aut h o r i t i e s worked with a long planning horizon, and i f the budget a l l o c a t i o n s were only loosely constrained, then the 7 k frequency of T costs would be reduced. These two considerations would a f f e c t the height of the wave va r i a t i o n s . For o r i g i n a l or pioneer connections, the crest i s l i k e l y to be very pronounced - that i s , a very large proportion of the d i s t r i c t ' s a l l o c a t i o n going into that one job. Crests representing improvements or adjustments of a f a c i l i t y would be rather smaller, given the same size a l l o -cation to the d i s t r i c t . However, i f a l i n k had to be r e b u i l t or replaced, then the crest would again be very pronounced. The trough following such a crest would be very steep and deep, since the new f a c i l i t i e s would reduce operating and maintenance costs for at l e a s t a few years. The T/B r a t i o provides a conceptual device with which to approach the masses of figures to be derived from the f i n a n c i a l accounts. I t i s a way of ill u m i n a t i n g trends within d i s t r i c t s and sharp deviations which suggest build-up of t r a f f i c or costs, or which suggest the pursuit of some other p a r t i c u l a r objective. Comparison of d i s t r i c t s would indicate the r e l a t i v e importance of the two road classes from time to time with implications as to the nature of t r a f f i c flows and economic a c t i v i t y i n c e r t a i n areas. One cannot assume that a l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p exists between the change i n t r a f f i c volume (F) and the change i n cost of road f a c i l i t i e s (R). The following diagrams indicate the large step additions to accumulating costs for various f a c i l i t i e s at d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of flow. 75 F i g . 10 - Generalized Diagrams of the Relation of Increasing Flow to the Accumulating Capital and Maintenance Cost of F a c i l i t i e s a) Change from f e r r y to bridge b) Addition of truck lane on h i l l s , 2-lane high-way R c) Elimination of in t e r s e c t i o n by an overhead crossing R d) Replacement of 2-lane highway by l i m i t e d access freeway R = accumulating cost of f a c i l i t i e s F = t r a f f i c flow Source: Synthesized from statements i n Winfrey and Zellner, NCHRP Report No. 122, p. 6 0 - 5 ; 80-5? and i n Tallamy Associates, NCHRP Report No. 42, p. 9, pp. 41 - 5 5 . In each case, there i s a period of sharply r i s i n g costs just before the adjustment, and a period of minimal cost a f t e r the adjustment. In (e) above, operating and maintenance costs f o r the in t e r s e c t i o n are dispensed with. In (a) and (d), there i s a r e l a t i v e l y long period before costs s t a r t to increase 7 6 again j whereas i n (h), the res p i t e i n operating and mainte-nance costs i s r e l a t i v e l y b r i e f . A curve representing user cost would show a sharp f a l l a f t e r each adjustments i n the case of (a) and (c), i t would decline to almost zero. The case of (a) and (b) above can quite possibly occur i n branch development (B) as well, and may help to explain the depths of some of the troughs occurring i n Figure 9 . The troughs can be regarded as an absence of T, and/or as an i n d i c a t i o n of a p a r t i c u l a r l y large investment i n B. The B development, whether new construction or improvement, can be generally described i n three processes: i ) interconnection or integration: the "back-route" connections between the trunks, which also serve minor i n t e r -mediate communities and a c t i v i t i e s . In B r i t i s h Columbia, such routes are Kelowna-Roek Creek, or C l i n t o n - L i l l o o e t - L y t t o n , or L i t t l e Fort-100 Mile House. i i ) i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n : increasing the sub-regional network impinging on a node. This has occurred around Dawson Creek and around Williams Lake and Quesnel. i i i ) pioneering: extending peripheral branches and basic connections - such as to Tofino, to B e l l a Coola, to Mackenzie, or to Port Hardy from Sayward. At the e a r l i e s t stage of road development, the T/B r a t i o of simple mileage would be biased towards B - that i s , numerous l o c a l roads f o r exploration, farming, forestry, gathered i n sub-systems and drawn together by superior r a i l or water transport. Such was the case with the Fraser Valley, 77 Okanagan, West Kootenay and East Kootenay sub-systems before 19^6 - they were drawn together by the railway and not by the poorly established trunk roads. 4 . 3 SPENDING IN B.C. 1946-71, BY ROAD SYSTEM Table VII shows a d i s t o r t i o n to the i d e a l pattern postulated i n the preceding section. The proportion of B to T dipped i n the middle years before resuming a rapid trend towards B, The decline i n the middle years h i g h l i g h t s an element of external p o l i c y strongly influencing the a l l o c a -tions within the province. The years 1956 to 1962, saw the busiest a c t i v i t y i n b uilding the Trans-Canada Highway. Federal money spent i n the National Parks i s included i n the T amounts; so i s a large share (roughly 50% of the t o t a l f o r the Trans-Canada) of federal money provided f o r a l l other sections of the highway. The province had to a l l o c a t e money to that route - perhaps more than was warranted from a purely l o c a l point of view - i n order to get the benefits of the cost-sharing scheme. The highway, from V i c t o r i a through to F i e l d , has taken about $330 m i l l i o n over the whole period, of which about $180 m i l l i o n has come from the Federal Government. In one sense, the external connection has d i s t o r t e d the "natural" or purely l o c a l a l l o c a t i o n which would have occured; i n another sense, the cost-sharing scheme has released c e r t a i n p r o v i n c i a l funds to be used elsewhere i n the p r o v i n c i a l road system. 78 TABLE VII TOTAL SPENDING IN THE DISTRICTS, ACCORDING TO ITEM AND TO ROAD SYSTEM, 1946-71 Period Construction and Improvement ($m.current) Construction & Improvement ($m. I96I) A l l Items B T B/T % B T B/T fo B'% T % 1946-49 3.8 33.4 4.2 37.1 22 78 1949-52 7*0 41.9 18 7.0 51.9 18 24 76 1952-56 18.7 76.7 17.2 70 .4 31 69 1956-59 25.5 162.0 13 19.3 122.7 13 23 77 1959-62 20.2 190.9 18.5 175.1 18 82 1962-65 34.5 141.8 35.2 144.7 28 72 1965-68 82.8 128.4 114.5 60 64.7 78.4 100.3 - 84.8 54 44 56 48 1968-71 105.9 52 Total 1946-71 298.5 899.6 33 244.5 787.0 31 33 67 * Note the breakdown of maintenance and snow-cleaning items between T and B i s not p e r f e c t l y correct. Only u n t i l 1 9 5 6 - 7 were d e t a i l s provided i n the accounts of where i n the d i s t r i c t the cost was incurred. For a l l l a t e r years, an estimate of the breakdown has been made, based on r e l a t i v e T/B mileage, and adding a percentage factor f o r the extra costs l i k e l y on T roads. Error i s l i k e l y to r e s u l t i n a s l i g h t exaggeration of the B share. Since the amounts involved are about 15 per cent of t o t a l , and since the bias i s consistent over the period, then any error should not upset the v a l i d i t y of the general trend shown by the percentages. Despite that dip of B i n the middle period, the general trend i s clear. Since the greater proportion of T spending occurred e a r l i e r than that of B, i t i s necessary to adjust the t o t a l f o r each into constant ( I 9 6 I ) d o l l a r s by means of HCPI (Table VII). The differences are not s i g n i f i -cant except i n recent years. Amongst the d i s t r i c t s , the T/B r a t i o can serve as 79 a rough guide to the demands on l o c a l road development. TABLE VIII PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL SPENT ON BRANCH SYSTEM 1946-71 Percentage D i s t r i c t s Range  0-9 Columbia 10-19 Chilliwack, Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , Fort George, Delta, Rossland-Trail, Kootenay, Skeena, Nelson-Creston, Kamloops. 20-29 Saanich, North Vancouver, Dewdney, Boundary-Similkameen, Shuswap. 30-39 Vancouver, South Peace, North Peace, Cariboo. 40-49 Omineca, North Okanagan, South Okanagan, Prince Rupert. 50-59 Cowichan, Revelstoke-Slocan. 60+ Esquiraalt, Nanaimo, Comox, Alb e r n i , A t l i n , Mackenzie. Vancouver Island, Revelstoke-Slocan, Omineca, Peace River, Cariboo, Okanagan and Prince Rupert have averaged a r e l a t i v e l y high proportion of B (over 30 per cent). In these d i s t r i c t s , t r a f f i c f o r off-highway areas has received greater attention: farm and ranch roads; mining roadsj basic connections i n the north of Vancouver Island; roads f o r hydro-electric developments i n Revelstoke and Peace River. Special projects i n Prince Rupert d i s t r i c t included the road to Port Edward, and from Masset to Skidegate on the Queen Charlotte Islands. Trunk development has been much more dominant i n Skeena, Fort George, Columbia, Nelson-Creston, Rossland-Trail and Kootenay. A l l but the l a s t have experienced expensive and d i f f i c u l t construction projects; but also, areas of s e t t l e -ment i n these d i s t r i c t s have been rather confined, as i s 80 apparent from the t o u r i s t road map published by the provin-c i a l government. The T/B r a t i o , i n such cases, seems to describe the nature of economic a c t i v i t y i n a d i s t r i c t , as to whether i t i s concentrated or dispersed - a consistently high elevation of the p r o f i l e suggests either an early stage of road connection, or a confined pattern of a c t i v i t y ; a low elevation suggests a d i s t r i c t "growing" l o c a l l y with well-developed trunk routes, or with none at a l l , and having a dispersed pattern of a c t i v i t y . Such an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n could be used only as a f i r s t approach to the breakdown of spending. As with a l l rough guides, there are some large anomalies. Delta, C h i l l i -wack, Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , Kamloops and Shuswap have quite a high degree of development, as indicated by any map of roads or of population d i s t r i b u t i o n . However, t h e i r B proportion over the whole period has been depressed by the r e l a t i v e dominance of spending on the Trans-Canada trunk. Kamloops was also affected by the large a l l o c a t i o n to the North Thompson trunk. In developed areas, a f t e r trunks of good q u a l i t y have been put i n , a higher B r a t i o can be expected, but with very pronounced waves of T, mainly because adjustments to f a c i l i t i e s are extremely expensive i n b u i l t up areas with large t r a f f i c flows. In l e s s developed areas, the T waves would probably be less pronounced, as minor adjustments can be made to meet the demands of increasing, but s t i l l much lower, l e v e l s of t r a f f i c flow. However, t h i s second genera-l i z a t i o n has not held true f o r B.C. i n the 1946-71 period. 81 The T connections have been i n large, i n d i v i s i b l e lumps, i n -volving long distances and d i f f i c u l t obstacles. The genera-l i z a t i o n may hold true i n r u r a l d i s t r i c t s f o r the present and immediate future, since the basic l i n k s of good q u a l i t y have been put i n , and r e l a t i v e l y minor improvements can be made -such as truck lanes, controlled access, and improved v i s i o n . A serious d i f f i c u l t y i n in t e r p r e t i n g the T/B r a t i o f o r a p a r t i c u l a r d i s t r i c t i s that large additions to T may be forced i n a d i s t r i c t because of pressure coming from elsewhere i n the system, and not at a l l associated with the state of B i n the d i s t r i c t . The Trans-Canada and North Thompson Highways have been c i t e d as examples. The same i s true of the Northern Trans-provincial through Skeena d i s t r i c t , or the Salmo-Creston l i n k . A further d i f f i c u l t y i s presented by the e l e c t o r a l d i v i s i o n s cutting across sub-systems of roads - a d i s t r i c t may include more than one d i r e c t i o n of T and, therefore, waves w i l l appear more frequently than i f there i s a single trunk with minor branches (see Figure 11). In such cases, the r e l a -t i v e importance of each road category i n terms of spending can be assessed by comparing the T/B r a t i o of mileage with the T/B r a t i o of spending from time to time. F i g . 11 - Diagrams of Trunk Mileage within E l e c t o r a l D i s t r i c t s a) Cariboo b) Kamloops 82 4.4 CHANGES IN THE T/B RATIO OVER TIME A number of d i s t r i c t s have been selected f o r obser-vation of the pattern described by the T/B r a t i o . The average height of the T percentage l i n e w i l l vary from d i s t r i c t to d i s t r i c t , depending mainly on the percentage or capacity of trunk mileage within the t o t a l mileage included i n an electo-r a l d i s t r i c t . Costs of T per mile have averaged about four or f i v e times those of B. For example, the T percentage f o r Chilliwack, Fort George and Columbia has remained higher than average, while that of. Comox, Alb e r n i , and North Okanagan has remained below average (see Figure 12) . The dec l i n i n g propor-tions of T mileage i n Cariboo, Kootenay and North Okanagan suggest some further opening up of these d i s t r i c t s has been taking place. Comox d i s t r i c t bears out the sequence, postulated e a r l i e r , of an area at the periphery of a road network - a higher proportion of T, gradually decreasing f o r a while, a s i g n i f i c a n t new addition to T, then a reversion to the trend. The trunk route here i s from Courtenay to Kelsey Bay) the branch routes, which are of the extension and pioneering type, are into the Gold River and Port MacNeil areas. Saanich t y p i f i e s the p r o f i l e to be expected more commonly i n urbanized d i s t r i c t s . The p r o f i l e shows peaks representing the large e f f o r t required to provide thorough-fares i n built-up areas. The f i r s t peak was f o r spending on the Trans-Canada Highway emerging from V i c t o r i a (1953-55)$ the second peak represents spending on the highway from B % 50 0 46-49 C O M O X 50 K O O T E N A Y 68 S A A N I C H C A R I B O O 84 V i c t o r i a to Swartz Bay. A f t e r a b r i e f r e s p i t e , another peak appears at the end of the period, as another large investment i s required to r e l i e v e the t r a f f i c pressure which has b u i l t up along t h i s route ( P a t r i c i a Bay Highway). Much of the branch system i n t h i s and other urbanized d i s t r i c t s w i l l not be allocated spending through the Department of Highways -rather, through the l o c a l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . Cariboo shows the general trend of the T/B r a t i o undisturbed by pressures external to the d i s t r i c t , such as extra-provincial connections. Kootenay has a si m i l a r p r o f i l e , though i t s period of prime attention to T was more protracted, because of i n c l u s i o n i n the d i s t r i c t of trunk routes covering f i v e d i r e c t i o n s . Delta also includes trunk routes covering many di f f e r e n t directions - Deas Throughway, 401 Highway, 99 High-way. The T wave was very pronounced and spread over quite a long period. The deep trough i n Delta's p r o f i l e indicates a change of emphasis, investment now catering f o r r e l i e f branch roads f o r l o c a l t r a f f i c - p a r t i c u l a r l y the Knight Street Bridge. External influence shows up i n Delta's accounts i n the provi-sion of over-passes f o r the railway to Roberts Bank and of an access road to the port. North Okanagan exemplifies the expected p r o f i l e of investment i n a well-developed r u r a l area. There was an early, moderately high concentration on the T routes, declining sharply a f t e r the basic connections of good q u a l i t y were completed. Since pressure of l o c a l and through t r a f f i c b u i l t 85 up considerably, more investment had to be put back into T -i n t h i s case, widening and improving the a r t e r i a l s about Vernon. The use of three-year averages i n p l o t t i n g the T/B r a t i o gives: a better i n d i c a t i o n of the purposes of investment than the p r o f i l e s provided by annual a l l o c a t i o n s . These can be distorted from a general trend by a number of factors, such as unfavourable weather and run-off conditions i n a p a r t i c u l a r area, or the s a t i s f a c t i o n of short-term p o l i t i c a l aims, or the absence of a suitable contractor, or the need to coordinate with the projects of other a u t h o r i t i e s . Also, the d i r e c t i o n of spen-ding f o r p o l i t i c a l gain may vary from year to year and from d i s t r i c t to d i s t r i c t ! i n one case, i t might be f o r improving l o c a l farm roads; i n another case, i t might be f o r removing an obstacle on the main trunk system. Further, because of the lump-sum nature of many projects i n road f a c i l i t i e s i n B.C., the investment "pie" cannot be cut i n any i d e a l pattern from year to year. Projects started or re-started i n an e l e c t i o n year have often required another two or three years f o r the contract to be completed. As an i n d i c a t i o n of the v a r i a t i o n i n the T/B r a t i o from year to year, the s i x d i s t r i c t s selected above are represented i n Figure 1 3. The high degree of v a r i -ation i n Saanich i s due to the accounting of progress on the P a t r i c i a Bay Highway. Note that Cariboo and Kootenay p r o f i l e s show an upturn i n the l a t e s t year, contrary to the general trend - t h i s r e f l e c t s new investment i n upgrading the trunk routes to the increased l e v e l of usage. Fig 13. Trunk-Branch Spending, for Selected Districts (plotted annually).. co ON 87 4.5 MEANING OF THE TRUNK/BRANCH DIVISION OF SPENDING The T/B r a t i o i s a useful device f o r se t t i n g about describing what has happened i n road development: but i t i s not very useful f o r planning purposes, and i t i s a poor basis f o r p r e d i c t i o n . There i s obviously some interdependence of branch development, t r a f f i c flow, and trunk development, but consistency i s lacking. Up to a ce r t a i n stage, branch roads that open up a d i s t r i c t w i l l generate t r a f f i c from the branches and into the trunks. They w i l l also a t t r a c t t r a f f i c along the trunks and into the branches - notably, t o u r i s t t r a f f i c . In such circumstances, spending on one system w i l l eventually require spending on the other, given that economic a c t i v i t y i n a d i s t r i c t i s sustained or increased. Trunk development might not require l o c a l branch development, however, i f the trunk i s f o r t r a f f i c passing through an unattractive area: but i f urban centres on a through path are able to trap some of the passing t r a f f i c , then over a long period, economic a c t i v i t i e s there might require more space and perhaps, there-fore, some expansion of branches. Beyond the stage of interdependence of systems, when t r a f f i c corridors become constricted, spending on B might be, to some extent, substitute f o r spending on T. Consider the case where a high proportion of t r a f f i c on a trunk i s r e a l l y l o c a l t r a f f i c - that i s , on a t r i p l e s s than a complete urban-to-urban movement. An alt e r n a t i v e route might be provided to serve the l o c a l t r a f f i c , thereby reducing the need f o r further investment i n the trunk route (see Figure 14). Substitution 88 of B f o r T probably occurs only at "very high" l e v e l s of t r a f f i c flow. The alternate might not show up i n the accounts of one p a r t i c u l a r d i s t r i c t . F i g . 14 - Diagrams of Relationship of B and T Systems (Width of l i n e proportional to flow and f a c i l i t y costs) a) Interdependence of B and T This sequence i s t y p i f i e d by the Fraser Canyon route (on a very broad scale), and by the Okanagan Highway (on a sub-regional s c a l e ) . b) Substitution of B f o r T h"1 ft WTri u This sequence i s t y p i f i e d by the b u i l d i n g of Knight St. Bridge; or, on a much larger scale, the L i t t l e Fort-100 Mile House connection, or the Kelowna-Rock Creek "back-route". In these l a t t e r eases, the r e l i e f of pressure i s , more s p e c i f i -c a l l y , providing more alt e r n a t i v e s f o r t o u r i s t t r a f f i c . Even i f the determining r e l a t i o n s h i p of trunk to branch can be discerned, there i s s t i l l an important d i f f i c u l t y i n r e l a t i n g the T/B trend to, say, t r a f f i c counts, and projec-t i n g i t into the future. This d i f f i c u l t y l i e s i n the varying r e l a t i o n s h i p s of l e v e l s of flow to costs of f a c i l i t i e s , which were set out i n Figure 10, with very generalized dimensions. The exact dimensions of the r e l a t i o n s h i p vary from case to 89 case, and t h e i r causes may well be p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l , rather than economic and engineering. Which class of costs to minimize i s e s s e n t i a l l y a p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l question -user cost? or immediate c a p i t a l cost? or long-term t o t a l cost? Quality of service provided by the f a c i l i t y involves t r a v e l cost, running speed, t o t a l t r a v e l time, r e l i a b i l i t y , safety and ease, and so on. Standards guiding the planners are p o l i t i c a l l y or s o c i a l l y determined. Therefore, the T/B r a t i o would become a useful predictor only i f the standards were s t r i c t l y determined and s t r i c t l y adhered to, and i f the planning horizon were constant f o r a l l projects. These are u n r e a l i s t i c conditions. The r a t i o remains, then, a descrip-t i v e device f o r ordering hindsight and f o r i l l u m i n a t i n g a process within road development. As a descriptive device, the T/B r a t i o has pointed out a s i g n i f i c a n t trend i n the a l l o c a t i o n of t o t a l spending i n B.C., and i n the a l l o c a t i o n s f o r various d i s t r i c t s . I t has shown the e f f e c t s on spending patterns of the processes of basic connection, l o c a l i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n and route s u b s t i -t u t i o n . I t s elevation on the graphs has indicated the r e l a -t i v e importance of the respective road systems from d i s t r i c t to d i s t r i c t . I t has emphasized the importance of external connections i n the road-building h i s t o r y of B.C. The T/B r a t i o has provided a very general commentary on the p o l i c i e s behind a l l o c a t i o n s of spending on areas of the province. E a r l i e r , the obvious intentions were to develop basic trunk connections of high cost and good q u a l i t y j and l a t e r , there was more emphasis on l o c a l branches and alternate 90 routes. The concern f o r good external connections became clear - Trans-Canada, Yellowhead, North Thompson, Deas Through-way. R e l i e f of t r a f f i c pressure has appeared as a s i g n i f i c a n t objective i n recent years - i n Saanich, North Vancouver, Delta, Dewdney, Y a l e - L i l l o o e t , and North Okanagan. Evidence of the p o l i c y of extension or pioneering was provided by the r a t i o i n A t l i n , Coraox, Albern i , Prince Rupert, Cariboo and Omineca. In general, the r a t i o helps one recognize the trends i n road development, which a s t a t i c representation (as i n Chapter 3) does not c l e a r l y i l l u s t r a t e . 4.6 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MAINTENANCE AND CONSTRUCTION COSTS As roads are upgraded, maintenance costs (M) generally decrease f o r the same t r a f f i c volume (F). I f a gravel road i s redesigned and r e b u i l t with a tarmac surface, then the opera-tions of grading, brushing, patching and shouldering w i l l be v i r t u a l l y eliminated. A high c a p i t a l cost o f f s e t s long-term M, I f F r i s e s greatly on the new f a c i l i t y , then i t i s possible that other operating costs w i l l increase, such as ice and snow clearing and road p a t r o l s . So a f t e r the basic connections are put into a d i s -t r i c t , generally M w i l l become a greater proportion of the d i s t r i c t budget, while d e c l i n i n g i n actual amount. The s i t u a -t i o n w i l l hold u n t i l increasing F forces up M (and eventually forces new additions and improvements), or u n t i l q u a l i t y and extent of service are increased. At f i r s t , F w i l l be able to 91 increase much fa s t e r than M, u n t i l the operating capacity of the f a c i l i t y i s approached. With increasingly higher l e v e l s of F, p a r t i c u l a r l y on a deteriorating surface, M and user costs w i l l increase faster than F. Maintenance costs per mile, i n a purely technical sense, are the outcome of c l i m a t i c conditions, q u a l i t y and capacity of design, roadbed and surface, and the l e v e l and composition of F. 1 Grade and curvature c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are sometimes important factors also* but M i s i n no way " t i e d " to F, f o r there i s a v i t a l intervening decision about what qua l i t y of service to provide. The c r i t e r i a influencing such decisions w i l l be evolved at two l e v e l s - guidelines from the central administration, and assessment of actual needs at the d i s t r i c t l e v e l . Where a f a c i l i t y i s due for replacement i n the near future, or where the a u t h o r i t i e s are intending to slow the generation of t r a f f i c on a p a r t i c u l a r l i n k , then qu a l i t y of service (Q) might be allowed to decline. Generally, however, as F r i s e s , M w i l l also r i s e , to maintain Q. I f M i s increasing f a s t e r than F, then Q w i l l be improving over a constant road system (assuming no i n f l a t i o n ) . The B.C. Department of Highways seems to have pur-sued such a p o l i c y of improving Q - additions to M, p a r t i c u -l a r l y on v i t a l routes, appear to be greater than increases i n F. Apart from maintenance of surfaces and shoulders, markings and signposts, the expensive items attendant to high F are the patrols against hazards and delays. In the deliberate development of a road system, large 9 2 c a p i t a l investments w i l l often be made f o r construction of basic connections, as a way of keeping down long-term main-tenance and user costs. The extent to which such s u b s t i t u t i o n can be carr i e d out depends on the perceived demands of the t o t a l transport system, the p r i o r i t y accorded to various objectives of road construction, and the l i m i t a t i o n s of the department's budget. When concentrating on just a few expensive, i n d i v i -s i b l e projects, M, and therefore Q, i n other parts of the road system w i l l be decreased; but a f t e r the main connections of good q u a l i t y are put i n , M per mile w i l l decline i n the short run. This s i t u a t i o n allows the au t h o r i t i e s to extend basic maintenance services, and to increase Q over a greater mile-age. A c o s t l y trunk f a c i l i t y w i l l eventually benefit the o f f -highway back-road users (such as farmers) by relea s i n g more of a d i s t r i c t ' s M budget f o r use i n the branch system. D i s t r i c t s having a low proportion of M to C would l o g i c a l l y be i n a "development phase" or " r e l i e f phase" of road-building. R e l i e f can take the form of upgrading, widening, r e s t r i c t i n g access, or replacing a route. D i s t r i c t s with a high proportion of M to C are being overlooked i n the deve-lopment phase, or are enjoying the benefits of recently b u i l t f a c i l i t i e s , or are building up to a congested high-cost s i t u -ation on ageing f a c i l i t i e s . In B.C. over the whole period 1946-71, M increased at a f a s t e r rate than C. Figure 15 shows that the trend was interrupted about I96O-63, when M a c t u a l l y declined, following a period of very heavy spending on C. Since then, M has r i s e n 93 at an average 6.5% per year, C at about 2%. From 1946 to 1956, M averaged about 25% of a l l spending. This proportion declined i n the middle years of intensive construction a c t i -v i t y to about 14%; but since then, has edged back to around 20%. F i g . 15 - Relationship of Construction,Maintenance and T r a f f i c Flows, B.C. 1946-71  (Plotted f o r 8 sub-periods). F / / •46 '71 F - Rural T r a f f i c Flow Index 4- 20 (see fn . 3.10) C - Total Construction Costs T 10, $ m i l l i o n M - Total Maintenance Cost, $m i l l i o n Interpretation of the increases i n M, p a r t i c u l a r l y since 1963i i s e s s e n t i a l l y speculative. Certainly, some of the increases are due to higher wages f o r day-labour,as these would f a l l disproportionately on M rather than C. Mainte-nance operations are generally more piecemeal, with delays and broken s h i f t s , and more labour-intensive, than f u l l -scale construction contracts. This i s e s p e c i a l l y true of patching or small improvement jobs, where t r a f f i c interference i s an important factor. Some part of the increases i s due to the greater extent of the road system, which has increased at 2 an average of just under 1 per cent per year. Yet another i n d e n t i f i a b l e part of the increases i s due to the r i s i n g cost of f e r r y operations, mainly i n Comox, MacKenzie, Omineca, Nelson-Creston and Revelstoke-Slocan - costs have r i s e n to improve the q u a l i t y and extent of service, and to keep ahead of increasing F. However, costs for a l l f e r r y operations, excluding the B.C. Ferries D i v i s i o n , have remained at a f a i r l y constant 15 to 17 per cent of t o t a l M, over the l a s t ten years. Therefore, i t seems that increasing M i s due l a r g e l y to operations intended to maintain Q as F has r i s e n , and operations intended to improve Q over a larger part of the road system. There are no indications i n the accounts as to which intention was the stronger, though i t might be d i s -coverable from the accounts of operations at the d i s t r i c t l e v e l , before aggregation into e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s . A general i n d i c a t i o n i s obtained by imposing the t o t a l M l i n e onto Figure 6a of the previous chapter. Despite a l l the improve-ments of structures and surfaces, M rose more sharply than gas tax and licence c o l l e c t i o n s , suggesting that Q was being more than maintained i n the face of increasing F, Further, i n the Annual Report of 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 (p. 72) the Senior Maintenance Engineer referr e d to "the improving standard of highway main-tenance"! and again, i n the Annual Report of 1 9 6 6 - 6 7 (p. 7 3 ) , to "the growing demand for improvements and paving c a r r i e d out under our day-labour programme". The conclusion, that Q i s 95 being increased and extended, i s supported also by the f i n -ancing formula for d i s t r i c t M costs. This allows a 7 per cent increase from year to year, on top of any new construction work which would a c t u a l l y reduce the current need f o r M. The pronounced take-off i n M costs occurred i n 1 9 6 6 - 6 7 (up 16 per cent over previous year), with another boost i n 1 9 6 9 - 7 0 (up 14 per cent). The 1 9 6 6 - 6 7 f i n a n c i a l year followed a winter of heavy snowfalls, so perhaps some part of the increase i s due to r e p a i r of damage caused by pavement deterioration and spring run-off. This explanation does not account f o r the high l e v e l s of M being sustained i n subsequent years. Those two outstanding years correspond with election-year a c t i v i t y , which would help explain the increasing Q and the increasing extent of maintenance ser-v i c e s . There appears to be no communality i n the character of d i s t r i c t s being favoured with increases (generally more than 20 per cent over the previous year). Now, given the d i f f e r e n t needs of the various d i s t r i c t s , and the apparently indiscriminate a l l o c a t i o n of increased M, the conclusion must be that M was not being used as a factor i n a s p e c i f i c policy, but as a means of s a t i s f y i n g user demand i n a general way. 4 . 7 MAINTENANCE COSTS OVER AREA The M a l l o c a t i o n s i n 1 9 7 0 - 7 1 ranged from about $500 per mile-improved-^ i n the Similkameen-Okanagan areas, up to about $ 2 , 9 0 0 i n the Lower Mainland. Precise figures are unobtainable from the accounts since d o l l a r amounts are given 96 by e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s while mileages are l i s t e d by highways administrative d i s t r i c t s . Also, i t has not been possible to calculate f o r a l l the e l e c t o r a l d i s t r i c t s since some are s p l i t between, or spread across, more than one highway d i s -t r i c t . S t i l l , the grouping of d i s t r i c t s by M costs per mile i s i n d i c a t i v e of the purpose behind t h e i r a l l o c a t i o n s . The Lower Mainland ( $ 2 , 9 0 0 ) i s about double that of the next ranked area. Rossland-Trail, Nelson-Creston and Revelstoke-Slocan are grouped about $ 1 , 2 0 0 to $ l , 5 0 0 j Fort George and Comox around $ 1 , 0 0 0 ; Prince Rupert, Kootenay and Yale-L i l l o o e t $800? Kamloops, Shuswap, Omineca and Skeena between $600 and $ 7 0 0 , and Peace River, Cariboo, Okanagan, and Boundary-Similkameen a l l between $500 and $ 6 0 0 . Referring back to the factors offered as determi-nants of M cost (para. 3 , Section 4 : 6 ) , one has to discount the q u a l i t y of f a c i l i t i e s as a generally pervasive factor i n current a l l o c a t i o n s . I t was suggested that high q u a l i t y fac-i l i t i e s would reduce M costs per mile; but i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n i n the preceding paragraph, high M costs are associated with areas of higher qu a l i t y f a c i l i t i e s (as measured by the very broad standard of miles paved); and vice-versa, except i n the Boundary-Okanagan areas. Nor do climate and t e r r a i n provide a general explanation of the M a l l o c a t i o n s , though they have contributed to the grouping about $500 to $ 6 0 0 . The most important determining factor i s almost c e r t a i n l y the l e v e l of flow. The pressure on f a c i l i t i e s i n 97 the Lower Mainland i s indicated by the tremendously high a l l o c a t i o n of $2,900 per mile (which i s about 10 per cent of the c a p i t a l cost per mile of the 401 freeway west of Port Mann bridge). The need f o r a new period of C spending, rel a t e d to the r e l i e f of congestion, i s again shown. In more remote areas, with much lower l e v e l s of F, the M a l l o -cation i s much reduced, despite the more severephysical 4 conditions - Skeena, Columbia, Comox, Prince Rupert. The a l l o c a t i o n s of M are almost c e r t a i n l y l e d by user demand, and not guided by a p o l i c y of d i f f e r e n t i a l improvement of one d i s t r i c t over another. 4.8 THE MEANING OF M COST PATTERNS As stated e a r l i e r , M costs r e l a t i v e to other spen-ding were high i n the decade from 1946, declined i n the next period through to 1965» then rose again. The peak of $11.7 m i l l i o n i n 1956-57 was not exceeded u n t i l 1964-65» and since then, the t o t a l has grown every year. High costs i n the early years heralded a period of intensive construction. The im-proved q u a l i t y and capacity of f a c i l i t i e s , and the replacement of some f e r r i e s , allowed the reduction of M spending f o r about f i v e years. I t i s l i k e l y that the r a p i d l y r i s i n g costs i n recent years herald yet another period of intensive con-str u c t i o n . I t i s noticeable that the areas of highest M costs per mile are also the areas having generally the lowest propor-tions of M costs to t o t a l C costs f o r the whole period. The 9 8 pressure f o r new f a c i l i t i e s i s i n the areas of c o s t l i e s t provision of f a c i l i t i e s . There i s , then, some urgency i n fi n d i n g a l t e r n a t i v e means of r e l i e v i n g or d i f f u s i n g that pressure i n order to break out of the provision - generation -congestion s p i r a l . Whether the new f a c i l i t i e s w i l l he pro-vided soon i s a question of p o l i c y , and t h i s matter i s not confined simply to the Department of Highways. In any case, a l l o c a t i o n s of M have been shown as only a weak guide to p o l i c y at work, being more c l o s e l y t i e d to l e v e l s of user-demand than to wider objectives. The evidence f o r the i n t e n t i o n a l pursuit of s p e c i f i c objectives i s i n the c a p i t a l a l l o c a t i o n s , and f o r the period as a whole, i n the a l l o c a -tions to the trunk system. 99 REFERENCES j 1 See NCHRP Report No. 42, 196?, Ch. 4. The study t r i e s to f i n d uniform M per mile, to be applied by a l l a u t h o r i t i e s concerned with the U.S. Interstate Highways. 2 Miles open, March 1962j 22,584; March 1971« 24,180. Sourcei Annual Report, Minister of Highways. 3 Includes only paved and gravel roads. I t i s assumed that M costs on earth roads are kept to a bare minimum. 4 Obstacles and damaged pavements are probably more tolerable i f met only once (e.g., on t o u r i s t vacation), than those met re g u l a r l y (e.g., on commuter or shopping t r i p s i n urban areas). CHAPTER 5 INVESTMENT IN THE TRUNK NETWORK 5 . 1 INTRODUCTION Since 19^6, the trunk roads have taken about 67% of t o t a l spending. Population d i s t r i b u t i o n and natural b a r r i e r s constrain the shape and number of inter-urban routes $ also, new pioneer or extension routes and r e l i e f of urban congestion have come to receive higher p r i o r i t y . Consequently, t h i s pro-portion has declined to around 50% i n recent years. The actual size of the amount spent on trunk roads would alone j u s t i f y a spe c i a l treatment of these roads. But a stronger j u s t i f i c a t i o n i s i n the r o l e played by the trunk system i n the development and integration of B.C., es p e c i a l l y since 1 9 4 6 . Describing the timing, d i s t r i b u t i o n and cost of trunk development i s the necessary f i r s t step towards under-standing a large part of the transport-economy r e l a t i o n s h i p . The data w i l l be reduced here to t o t a l cost and per mile cost of each l i n k , and outstanding d i s p a r i t i e s and correspondences w i l l be explained. The important question of how c l o s e l y investment on a l i n k might be re l a t e d to response at the connected node, w i l l then be considered i n some d e t a i l . To 100 101 get an idea of the general response, changes i n t r a f f i c flow w i l l be re l a t e d to investment i n l i n k s . Some measures of st r u c t u r a l change w i l l be made, to show the varying c o n t r i -butions of p a r t i c u l a r l i n k s to the t o t a l system. S t r u c t u r a l measures by themselves w i l l be seen as not p a r t i c u l a r l y h e l p f u l towards an understanding of economic e f f e c t s of l i n k additions. 5 . 2 IMPORTANCE OF THE TRUNK SYSTEM A generalized response to road investment i s more r e a d i l y observable on the trunk system, although the branch roads o f f e r many cases of small-scale, i s o l a t e d responses. The most important influence of the trunk system i s that i t confers r e l a t i v e l o c a t i o n a l advantages amongst the set of nodes i n the Province, either by providing access, or by reducing the cost of movement of people and goods. Not only do rela t i o n s h i p s between nodes change, but probably also the relationships of intervening settlements to end-point nodes. Small l o c a l stores and domestic or farm services, which survive i n a market con-strained by a high f r i c t i o n of distance, w i l l be exposed to competition from the higher order nodes. These intervening a c t i v i t i e s tend to disappear, unless they can adapt to serve the market of passing t r a f f i c . Thus, the development of a trunk system, i n the in t e r e s t s of e f f i c i e n c y of d i s t r i b u t i o n , can cause s o c i a l disruption which has to be "paid f o r " i n other ways - r e l o c a t i o n and r e t r a i n i n g of in d i v i d u a l s , s h i f t i n land values, taxes, and so on. Hodge ( I 9 6 5 , and 1969) showed how 102 some trade centres die or change under the pressure of compe-t i t i o n and the quest f o r e f f i c i e n c y , a tendency strongly accentuated "by transport development. He showed that not a l l factors of production or elements of society are equally f l u i d and responsive, a f a c t often overlooked or assumed away i n assessing costs and benefits. Trunk development i s not seen as wholly b e n e f i c i a l a l l of the time. Hutchinson (1972, p. 499) contends that where the economy and the highway system are both well developed, as i n Southern Ontario, then changes i n transport costs through high-way investment are so small that they appear to have l i t t l e impact on the l o c a t i o n or prosperity of economic a c t i v i t i e s , so that the "use of user benefits only i s j u s t i f i e d " i n asses-sing the repercussions of investment. There i s some truth i n that statements but one suspects that the economic a c t i v i t i e s r e f e r r e d to are confined to the manufacturing sector, which have generally lower mobility than other urban a c t i v i t i e s . For c e r t a i n l y there are s i g n i f i c a n t responses to changed acces-s i b i l i t y patterns caused by freeway or subway t r a n s i t develop-ments, i n r e t a i l i n g , o f f i c e functions, r e s i d e n t i a l buildings, warehousing and d i s t r i b u t i o n , and not l i m i t e d to intra-urban markets only. The problem of evaluating repercussions of investment i n developed areas i s r e a l l y one of i d e n t i f y i n g the affected a c t i v i t i e s and the affected components within them. A second major influence of the trunk system i s on the p o t e n t i a l f o r s o c i a l and economic integration. I s o l a t i o n i s often a contributory factor i n s o c i a l or p o l i t i c a l dissensionj 103 remote communities often f e e l neglected, "missing out" on opportunities available to the r e s t of the population, while t h e i r v i s i b l e , physical connections are a c t u a l l y or r e l a t i v e l y inadequate. This phenomenon i s not quantifiable, yet i t may influence road-building p r i o r i t i e s , as suggested by the pro-tests of Gold River and Port Hardy residents during e l e c t i o n time i n 1972, or by the occasional a g i t a t i o n of M e r r i t t c i t i -zens f o r b u i l d i n g of the Coquihalla route as an alternative to the Fraser Canyon route. A trunk road system usually provides a greater p o t e n t i a l f o r regional i n t e r a c t i o n than the railway or r i v e r systems (which serve more s p e c i f i c loca-tions, resources and transport functions). Investment i n the trunk system w i l l tend to reduce the t o t a l f r e i g h t b i l l for the Province. Increasing s p e c i a l i z a t i o n , a feature of most advanced economies, places increasing empha-s i s on the d i s t r i b u t i o n function. This emphasis i s p a r t i c u l a r l y pronounced i n B.C., v/here the demand fo r imports i s high, where the avenues of imports are few, where the resource-development nodes are dependent on external supplies of almost everything, and where the metropolitan area has such a domi-nance over i t s hinterland. Since the per capita cost of i n t e r n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i n B.C. i s so very h i g h , 1 investment i n the trunk system can eventually have a strong income e f f e c t , to be expressed i n i t i a l l y i n the i n t e n s i t y of a c t i v i t y at favoured nodes. Freight costs may be reduced either d i r e c t l y or i n -d i r e c t l y . The truck operator, experiencing lower driver costs and vehicle costs, may o f f e r lower rates i n order to a t t r a c t 104 more shipments. I f he maintains the e a r l i e r charges a f t e r s i g n i f i c a n t road improvements, thereby increasing h i s p r o f i t s , then other operators might be attracted into the route, to force down f r e i g h t charges. (In B.C., the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of entry are constrained by regulations administered by the Public U t i l i t i e s Commission). I f the road improvements enable competition with r a i l , water, or a i r services which previously enjoyed a monopoly si t u a t i o n , then f r e i g h t rates w i l l tend to decrease, depending on the nature of goods being transported. One looks at the trunk system f o r i t s t o t a l e f f e c t on population and economic a c t i v i t y at or about a node. Con-nection or improvement w i l l a f f e c t almost a l l a c t i v i t i e s at a place, some substantially, some to a n e g l i g i b l e degree. This i s i n contrast to improvement i n a branch road, which usually a f f e c t s only a segment of the road-user population about a node, so that the income e f f e c t of reduced transportation costs i s r e f l e c t e d i n only some of the a c t i v i t i e s i n or about a node. F i n a l l y , t o u r i s t t r a f f i c , which greatly influences some a c t i v i t i e s and some decisions to invest i n various sub-regions, i s perhaps more strongly affected by trunk than by branch development i n B.C., (assuming equal attractiveness of sub-regions), because of the large distances to be t r a v e l l e d to parks and areas of in t e r e s t and r e t r e a t . Tourists probably prefer well-developed trunks to reach the favoured areas, and then r e l a t i v e l y undeveloped branches to maintain the desired sense of escape, o r i g i n a l i t y , wilderness, or seclusion. So f o r t h e i r greater influence on p r o v i n c i a l and regional development, f o r t h e i r greater e f f e c t on l o c a t i o n a l 105 advantage, s o c i a l integration, o v e r a l l f r e i g h t costs, t o u r i s t s and the majority of road users, the trunk roads are separated f o r more detailed description. 5 . 3 BUILD-UP OF THE TRUNK NETWORK In the following chapters, the p r o v i n c i a l road system i s reduced to the trunk routes of the I n t e r i o r (north and east of Hope), plus the Trans-Canada Highway from Vancouver to Hope. This i s done f o r s i m p l i c i t y and convenience - the Vancouver •node* sprawls f a r about the l i n k assigned to i t j the f e r r y services and the possible inter-urban routes or sub-urban roads supplied by the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , confuse the r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment and t r a f f i c flow. Also, the d i s t i n c t i o n between l o c a l t r a f f i c and inter-urban t r a f f i c i s r e l a t i v e l y vague i n the Lower Mainland and southern Vancouver Island. This exclusion does not greatly a f f e c t the main issue of the following chapters, which i s the r e l a t i o n between investment and inter-urban t r a f f i c , p a r t i c u l a r l y trucks. The int e n t i o n i s to set a stage for comparison of road improvement and truck-related economic a c t i v i t i e s . Between 19 k 6 and 1971• the t o t a l amount spent on the l i m i t e d trunk on surveys, right-of-way, construction, surfacing and improvements (excluding maintenance, snow-clearing and patrols) was approximately $770 m i l l i o n . Figure 16 shows the investment according to the period i n which each l i n k had i t s "major" a l l o c a t i o n - "major" being loosely defined as more than one-third of the t o t a l occurring i n one period. Most l i n k s Fig 16. Development of the Trunk Network, by Period, (link indicates a period of "major" investment) •costs here not exactly true, because of simplification of network structure; Vernon-Kamloops link is really Vernon-Monte Cr.; and Merritt-Lytton is really Merritt-Spences Bridge. Mann Bridge Fig 17. Total Cost of Links in the Trunk System 1946-71 $ million (surveys, right-of-way, construction, paving, improving). ,16 1131 224. r272 30 158, L48 T76 190 275 171 1181 167 59 92 29 571 '2866 Pt. Mann 695 120 95 95 <98 Fig 18. Cost per mile, for Trunk Links 1946-71 $'000 109 appear more than once, as the intensive a c t i v i t y extends over from one time period to another, or i s repeated i n another form i n a l a t e r period. The picture i s complicated by the f a c i l i t i e s e x i s t i n g before 19 k6, and does not imply that a l l l i n k s were of equal capacity and condition at that date. There i s an obvious emphasis on the Southern Transprovincial i n the f i r s t period (there was no Trans-Canada at that time), displaced i n the second period by development i n the southern I n t e r i o r . The t h i r d period shows a d i v e r s i t y of a c t i v i t y , dominated by the Trans-Canada. The f i n a l period shows a s h i f t to the North Central and Northern I n t e r i o r . Figure 1? shows the development of the trunk system according to the cost of l i n k s , and r e f l e c t s the enormous obstacles i n connecting c e r t a i n nodes. More was spent between Hazelton and Terrace than i n a l l the Okanagan trunk mileage. The Yellowhead and North Thompson routes stand out as tremen-dous commitments, of the order of the Rogers Pass or Fraser Canyon l i n k s , but with apparently l e s s j u s t i f i c a t i o n or urgency. Connections to and between towns i n the West Kootenay d i s t r i c t have been noticeably expensive, mainly because of the cost of bridges and of gaining enough width along the confined r i v e r v a l l e y s . Figure 18 shows the per mile cost of l i n k s i n the trunk system. The d i s t r i b u t i o n emphasizes the importance of the Trans-Canada Highway, and generally shows up the e f f e c t s of d i f f i c u l t t e r r a i n and r i v e r b a r r i e r s - Salmo-Creston, Nelson-Kinnaird, Hazelton to Prince Rupert and Kitimat, Hope to Cache 110 Creek. Two-thirds of the l i n k s have cost l e s s than $200,000 per mile, and most of the others are to do with the Trans-Canada, which was b u i l t to a higher standard of design. This per mile cost i s an average figure f o r a l i n k t there are parts of l i n k s having costs f a r above or f a r below the average, and a f i n e r picture of the incidence of costs could have been presented from the f i n a n c i a l accounts of the Annual Reports. The figures are put together i n t h i s form (Figures 16, 17, 18) because of the concern of t h i s study with investment and t r a f f i c between pai r s of nodes and along major routes. One i s tempted to ascribe a l l the d i s p a r i t i e s i n per mile costs to the occurrence of bridges, h i l l y t e r r a i n , the severity of winter and drainage requirements, or to the exis-tence of f a c i l i t i e s before 1946. I t i s v i r t u a l l y impossible to apply a factor representing the degree of d i f f i c u l t y afforded by t e r r a i n or climate. Rise and f a l l , or percentage gradients, do not t e l l the f u l l story, f o r there i s a d i f f e r e n t solution of curves, grades, rock removal, culvert f i l l i n g , c learing, shouldering, gravel supply and gravel crushing f o r each s i t u a t i o n . Survey and design costs vary from place to place, p a r t i c u l a r l y i f bridges are involved. Right-of-way costs become s i g n i f i c a n t i n urban road developments. I n f l a -t i o n of contract prices has h i t harder on some l i n k s than on others. Standards of construction are themselves a variable factor, depending mainly on expected t r a f f i c , projected l i f e of f a c i l i t i e s , desirable l e v e l of service, and funds a v a i l a b l e . There are, however, cases where the greater per mile I l l investment has been i n response to current or expected t r a f f i c volumes. The 401 route from Vancouver to Rosedale i s the most obvious} expensive additions of passing lanes from Hope to Cache Creek, Salmon Arm to Sicamous, Prince George to Tete Jaune Cache, and from Hope to Princeton are also detailed i n the accounts. Widening of the highway from Kelowna to north of Vernon, the alternate entry from the south into Prince George, the interchanges at Castlegar, the overhead bridges at Valleyview, and the replacement of f e r r i e s , are a l l examples of costly additions to highway capacity. Breaching of the passes can be regarded as integration or as additions to capa-c i t y of the system - Creston-Salmo, the No. 3 B to No. 3 con-nection north from Rossland, the Richter Pass, and the Cranbrook-Wasa alternate. There are cases where the high expenditures are due to s p e c i f i c projects or to longer-term p o l i c y objectives. Hydro-e l e c t r i c development has required much road investment on the Vernon-South Slocan l i n k , and on the Chetwynd-Hudson's Hope-Fort St. John l i n k . The Terrace-Kitimat l i n k was constructed i n support of the smelting a c t i v i t y , while the extensions to the border from Yahk and Elko presumably are designed to help a t t r a c t more t o u r i s t s . This i s part of the motivation behind the expenditure on the Yellowhead and North Thompson highways, which are perhaps also intended to increase i n t e r a c t i o n with settlements i n the P r a i r i e Provinces, and to increase the market range of producers at Vancouver, Prince George and Prince Rupert p a r t i c u l a r l y . 112 In the build-up of the trunk network, there have been d i f f e r e n t p r i o r i t i e s at work, some of these becoming v i s i b l e i n the size of a l l o c a t i o n s per l i n k . But the presen-t a t i o n of figures i n abstract graph form conceals some r e a l world f a c t s that strongly influence the a l l o c a t i o n s . F i r s t l y , the nodes are of v a s t l y d i f f e r i n g size and t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g c a p a b i l i t y , so that one might expect more costly f a c i l i t i e s to be provided between larger centres, a l l other conditions being equal. Secondly, existence of a l i n k i n a major path ,. tends to be a greater factor i n the s i z e of i t s a l l o c a t i o n than the character of the nodes which i t connects. Compare, fo r example, the a l l o c a t i o n s to r a d i a l s from Me r r i t t , with those from Creston, or Radium, or Salmon Arm. Lower standards of construction, e s p e c i a l l y i n curves, width and alignment have been possible about M e r r i t t ; around the other nodes, p a r t i c u l a r l y Salmon Arm, higher standards have been "forced" by the t r a f f i c and importance of the through routes. 5 A LINK INVESTidBNT AND NODE ACTIVITY An important question thus a r i s e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y from Figure 18 - given the v a r i a b i l i t y of a l l o c a t i o n s , and given the strong influence of through-path development, can any connection be made between the r e l a t i v e d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s to l i n k s and the r e l a t i v e importance or i n t e n s i t y of a c t i v i t y at the nodes? In other words, i s the cost of overcoming d i f -f i c u l t y and distance i n t r a v e l r e l a t e d consistently to the r e s u l t i n g degree of a c t i v i t y at nodes? 113 In an i s o l a t e d s i t u a t i o n , with equal d i f f i c u l t y of road construction, a much larger investment i n one d i r e c t i o n w i l l provide better f a c i l i t i e s f o r one l i n k than f o r another i n a d i f f e r e n t d i r e c t i o n . This w i l l lessen, r e l a t i v e l y the costs of t r a v e l on one side. Assuming that the surrounding nodes are of equal size, complexity and attractiveness, then more t r a f f i c w i l l flow to the favoured d i r e c t i o n . The r e s u l -t i n g ehanges i n economic a c t i v i t y and node importance are then re l a t a b l e , i n a general way, to the r e l a t i v e d o l l a r a l l o c a -tions. However, i f the e x i s t i n g a t t r a c t i o n of nodes i s un-equal, then a better connection from a minor to a major node may adversely a f f e c t a c t i v i t y at the minor node, by increasing the market range of the larger*s a c t i v i t i e s . Another minor node, whose l i n k has only a small a l l o c a t i o n , may survive because of the protection of distance and t r a v e l costs. In such a case, there i s no c l e a r connection between r e l a t i v e d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s to l i n k s and r e l a t i v e importance of node a c t i v i t y . Further, a s i g n i f i c a n t part of the a l l o c a t i o n might benefit users i n a general way not r e l a t a b l e to any p a r t i c u l a r node. The comfort and amenity aspects, such as wide shoulders, landscaping, clear and frequent signs, and roadside stopping places, w i l l probably have very l i t t l e influence on users* behaviour between any two nodes. For long-distance r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l , the investment might have some d i r e c t i o n a l e f f e c t s , i n making one area more a t t r a c t i v e to t o u r i s t s than another. Reduction of hazard and accidents, also, seems to be a v i r t u e belonging to the whole system, or to a major path. 114 Certainly the greater incidence of the reduction w i l l be f e l t i n i t i a l l y by users from nodes at the end of an adjusted l i n k , because they are more l i k e l y than t o u r i s t s , more l i k e l y than business t r a v e l l e r s from elsewhere, to make more t r i p s along the l i n k . However, t h i s assumes that there i s equal probabi-l i t y of accident or damage f o r each vehicle on the l i n k at any time, which i s u n r e a l i s t i c i n the ease of habitual users. I t would be i n t e r e s t i n g to know of the pattern of accidents on a trunk l i n k , whether there i s a higher r a t i o of t r i p s to involve-ment f o r l o c a l residents than f o r t o u r i s t s and t r a v e l l e r s , f given the same t r a f f i c conditions. This concern f o r the incidence of accident costs might seem l i k e quibbling» but, i n f a c t , accidents are extrem-ely co s t l y . In the U.S., t h e i r "cost approaches ... the amount spent yearly on highway construction and maintenance. T r a f f i c accidents may control the ultimate answer of the economic 2 value ... of a proposal". Apart from the d i s p o s i t i o n of the a l l o c a t e d funds, there i s also the problem of the nature of nodes being con-nected. Some nodes w i l l respond to l i n k improvement immediately - e s p e c i a l l y those with products dependent on truck transport, those with a c t i v i t i e s now able to reach a. c e r t a i n threshold, and those s u f f i c i e n t l y distant from larger competing centres. For other nodes, the response may be gradual and protracted. In some cases, a supporting change or investment may be required to enable a node to respond at a l l to the new p o t e n t i a l . Green-wood, i n B.C., has not been able to trap any of the p o t e n t i a l 115 f o r development provided by the improved highway; Armstrong and Oliver have perhaps l o s t something because of improve-ments on l i n k s to Vernon and Osoyoos. Another stumbling block to the correspondence of the size of a l l o c a t i o n s with a c t i v i t y at nodes, i s the pos i -t i o n of a l i n k added to the network (Burton, 1962). This d i f f i c u l t y has been mentioned e a r l i e r , concerning the e f f e c t of major paths. I t needs to be emphasized that a l l o c a t i o n s to l i n k up sub-systems of the network may achieve a large ; degree of improvement f o r the whole system ( i f only i n abstract terms of connectivity rather than i n terms of t r a f f i c flow). That improvement may not rebound to the benefit of the end-point nodes, since t r a f f i c may simply pass through to larger nodes that were formerly attainable by a more ci r c u i t o u s route. The l i n k from South Slocan to Vernon has a great e f f e c t on the t o t a l i t y of the network; the Chetwynd - Fort St. John l i n k has a very small e f f e c t . Provision of a l i n k from Revelstoke or Golden through to Tete Jaune, would have an intermediate e f f e c t on connectivity and t r a f f i c flow. A greater e f f e c t on t r a f f i c flow, but not on connectivity, would r e s u l t from the provision of a Vancouver - Squamish - Clinton trunk l i n k . These examples are suggested i n order to i l l u s t r a t e the very d i f f e r e n t possible outcomes of l i n k addition, regardless of d o l l a r amounts, because of the sub-systems and pairs of nodes being connected. F i n a l l y , i t i s possible to have increased flows on an unchanged road system, simply because of node a c t i v i t y having been stimulated by development r e l a t e d to other modes of 116 transport. Prince George, and the Peace River o i l and gas development, are examples of such a change. The conclusion must he that to r e l a t e expected change i n a c t i v i t y to the funds ava i l a b l e f o r adding, or improving, a l i n k , i s a poor basis f o r planning and decision-making. Yet when budget a l l o c a t i o n s are discussed, and records of progress advertised, the d o l l a r amounts are emphasized - a way of imply-ing that $10 m i l l i o n spent here and $10 m i l l i o n spent there are just the same i n u t i l i t y or welfare f o r the Province. The d i s t r i b u t i o n factor and the time f a c t o r are often ignored, as they were i n many project developments i n the Third World, (Wilson et. a l . , 1 9 6 6 ) , The greater i n t e n s i t y of a c t i v i t y and t r a f f i c flow i n developed economies probably conceals misallo-cation or u n d e r - u t i l i s a t i o n ( i f they do occur) by more rapid adjustment, relo c a t i o n , and re-routing. To gain a general impression of the r e l a t i o n s h i p discussed above, t o t a l d o l l a r s spent on l i n k s from 1 9 k 6 to 1971 were re l a t e d to percentage change i n t r a f f i c flow from 1 9 5 k "to 1971 i n a simple regression t e s t . Comparable s t a t i s t i c s are not available before 1 9 5 3 - 5 k . The Inclusion of spending before that date i s to bring into the r e l a t i o n s h i p some v i t a l invest-ments which probably had an e f f e c t on t r a f f i c flow i n the mid 1950's, but which were begun i n the l a t e 1 9 k 0's - p a r t i c u l a r l y on the Southern Transprovineial and John Hart Highways. Twenty-seven l i n k s were chosen, to t r y to represent t r a f f i c patterns, without being too r e p e t i t i v e - s i x out of the nine on the Trans-Canada routej seven of the sixteen of the Southern Transprovineialj three out of nine serving the Okanagan area; 117 two on the Cariboo Highway, two on the North Thompson, two i n the Peace River area, two between Prince Rupert and Prince George, plus Merritt-Kamloops and Vernon-South Slocan. No attempt was made to indicate the nature of the r e l a t i o n s h i p -the investment could be a response to l o c a l demand fo r move-ment, or could i n i t i a t e or stimulate i t . TABLE IX RELATIONSHIP OF DOLLAR ALLOCATIONS AND FLOWS, ON SELECTED LINKS T r a f f i c Flow Total Spending ($m) on Spending per mile ( $ 0 0 0 ) r e l a t e d tot 27 l i n k s 1946-71 on 27 l i n k s 1946-71 r +.37 +.36 exponent 9.75 . 9 0 constant 431.2 389.4 From the previous discussion, the d i r e c t i o n and weakness of the c o r r e l a t i o n i n Table IX are to be expected. Stronger c o r r e l a t i o n was found on the Trans-Canada and Okanagan l i n k s taken together, than on those i n northern d i s t r i c t s taken together; which suggest, perhaps, that the c o r r e l a t i o n was influenced by existence of important through paths, a higher concentration of urban settlement, and by f a c i l i t i e s having been provided before 1 9 4 6 . 5 . 5 NETWORK IMPROVEMENT FROM THE ALLOCATIONS The B.C. road system does not lend i t s e l f well to the purely s t r u c t u r a l measures of networks, as used by Garrison et a l . ( 1 9 6 5 ) , Garrison ( i 9 6 0 ) , and Burton ( 1 9 6 2 ) . Because of 118 the wide v a r i a t i o n i n length of l i n k s as presented i n t h i s study, a c c e s s i b i l i t y indices derived from the counting and sca l i n g of l i n k s give some nonsense answers. For example, the 170-mile l i n k from Prince George to Tete Jaune Cache i s coun-ted the same as the 9 miles from Kaleden to Pentictonj the devious South Slocan-Vernon l i n k i s counted the same as the dir e c t Vernon-Kelowna l i n k . According to t h i s set of l i n k s and nodes, the minimum path from Calgary to Kamloops would take a route through Tete Jaune. The addition of a new l i n k (say, Cascade to Kinnaird and Rossland, or Cranbrook to Fort Steele to Wasa) can add to minimum paths by requ i r i n g the i n c l u s i o n of i n t e r s e c t i o n nodes. On the other hand, addition of a l i n k can reduce minimum paths by allowing routes to by-pass some nodes, as has happened with the Richter Pass, the Salmo-Creston Highway, and the Nelson-Vernon highway. This p a r t i c u l a r pro-blem of measurement and in t e r p r e t a t i o n was mentioned by Kansky ( I 9 6 3 , p. 128), who changed from topological to metrical values when describing the general c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of dispersion, a c c e s s i b i l i t y and c i r c u i t y . Nor are the topological indices which Kansky offered ( I 9 6 3 , p. 10-28) p a r t i c u l a r l y meaningful i n describing change i n the B.C. network since 1 9 5 2 . The measures of connectivity, density, edge length and node weights, are more useful f o r comparing change i n one network with change i n another network. I t means l i t t l e to measure the degree of connectivity f o r the B.C. trunk network as having changed from 8 .5% to 9 . 5 % over the period. His Eta, P i , and Theta indices, which generally 1 1 9 decrease as networks and economies develop, may i n f a c t have increased i n the case of B.C., because of the addition of just three p a r t i c u l a r l i n k s . The Iota index w i l l t e l l something of the i n t e n s i t y of use of the network (miles divided by nodes times a t r a f f i c flow or population f a c t o r ) , but t h i s i s not necessarily r e l a t e d to d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s , as was discussed i n the previous section. For i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n i s not r e a l l y the story of development i n the B.C. road system - the set of nodes has been held amost constant, and only 9 l i n k s have been added. Admittedly, three of these have caused s i g n i f i c a n t s t r u c t u r a l changes (Yellowhead, North Thompson, Slocan links)« s t i l l , the larger r e s u l t of investment has been an improvement of the l i n k s of a quite stable system, rather than a profound s t r u c t u r a l change. More meaningful f i g u r e s of a c c e s s i b i l i t y according to structure are found i f the paths are forced to follow r e a l i s -t i c routes - that i s , some sense of value informs the s e l e c t i o n of paths. As an i n d i c a t i o n only, of the s t r u c t u r a l e f f e c t of adding new l i n k s , the paths from four peripheral and two central nodes to a l l other nodes have been counted, the routes of which were selected on the basis of what seemed l i k e l y with the pre-vious, and current, road conditions, (Table X). The Slocan l i n k brings the greatest amount of s t r u c t u r a l change because i t crosses between sub-systems, from the Central Interior-North Okanagan, to the Kootenay d i s t r i c t . Both these d i s t r i c t s have a r e l a t i v e l y high density of nodes. I f a l l node scores were calculated i n t h i s fashion, the apparent importance of the Slocan l i n k would grow increasingly larger, as the clusters of o C M H TABLE X EXAMPLE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE RESULTING FROM LINK ADDITION Links to 1971 i n c l . 1971 i n e l . 1971 i n c l . 1971 i n c l . 1971 i n c l . % Node A l l Nodes 1952 N.Thompson Only Slocan Only Yellowhead Only a l l three a l l new l i n k s Reduction 1952-71 Vancouver 519 510 519 519 510 504 2 . 9 Kamloops 399 392 293 399 286 283 29.I Ft.MacLeod 699 699 625 533 459 443 3 6 . 6 Ros.-Trail 526 524 402 526 400 384 2 7 . 0 Edmonton 417 364 417 405 352 339 18 .7 Pr.Rupert 815 8 I 3 753 775 711 681 16 .4 Total 3375 3302 3009 3157 2718 2634 2 2 . 0 Reduction 1 9 5 2 - 7 1 2 . 2 1 0 . 8 6 . 5 ' 1 9 . 5 2 2 . 0 121 nodes repeat the advantageous change i n routing. This scale of importance bears no r e l a t i o n to the scale of a l l o c a t i o n s over the period - f o r example, $14 m i l l i o n was spent on the Slocan l i n k , $51 m i l l i o n on the Yellowhead, and $40 m i l l i o n on the North Thompson. Nor does the l i n k importance measure ( K i s s l i n g , 1969, p. 117) provide any better account of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between investment a l l o c a t i o n s and contributions to network structure. The measure counts each time a l i n k occurs i n the minimum st r u c t u r a l paths between a l l p airs of nodes. In the 1952 net-work, the most important l i n k s were Cache Creek-Clinton, Cache Creek-Kamloops, and Osoyoos-Kaleden.^ In the 1971 network, the f i r s t two maintain t h e i r predominance, but the Richter Pass and Slocan l i n k s have taken the "pressure" o f f the Okanagan route, while the Rogers Pass addition gives a boost to the "use" of the Sicamous-Revelstoke l i n k . "Pressure" and "use" r e f e r to s t r u c t u r a l measures only; but they also show a very weak correspondence with the size of investments as presented i n Pig. 17 and F i g . 18. The l i n k being affected s t r u c t u r a l l y might not be the one receiving the a l l o c a t i o n . 5.6 MEASUREMENT OF NETWORK CHANGE The point has been c l e a r l y made, that s t r u c t u r a l change and d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s do not have a consistent nor meaningful r e l a t i o n s h i p . Structural measures are a somewhat deceptive description of network development. Kansky " t i e d " structure to economic development, and Burton used s t r u c t u r a l 122 change as a preliminary method for highway planning - the implication of both being that economic development and i n -vestment i n transportation ought to bring s t r u c t u r a l changes of a c e r t a i n type and order i n the network and i t s parts. The generalizations seem to ignore the f a c t that a resource-exploiting economy might require a hub-and-spoke structure, not greatly interconnected, while a uniform farming or speci-a l i z e d manufacturing economy might require a pyramid-lattice structure having greater connectivity. The examples from the B.C. experience show that without weighting the nodes, without valuing the l i n k s , and without assessing the real-world gain provided by an a l l o c a t i o n , the measures of structure are v i r t u a l l y useless f o r planning and often confusing f o r des-c r i p t i o n . The d o l l a r a l l o c a t i o n s have to be passed through a medium of "improvement bought" before they can be r e l a t e d to response at the nodes. Al l o c a t i o n s to the various l i n k s are i n t e n t i o n a l l y and i n e v i t a b l y unequal - an a l l o c a t i o n r e l a t e d only to e x i s t i n g t r a f f i c demand and to miles of distance, would reinforce e x i s t i n g patterns of movement and a c t i v i t y , and would ignore the real-world costs of construction. The degree of improvement can be measured i n a number of ways, r e l a t i n g to s p e c i f i c l i n k s and nodes or to the t o t a l network, and these w i l l be applied i n the following chapters. 123 REFERENCES j 1 Transport Routes i n the Economic Development of Northern  B.C., (1956) , Bureau of Economics & S t a t i s t i c s . V i c t o r i a . Estimated operating revenues of i n t e r - c i t y c a r r i e r s i n 1970 was $195 m i l l i o n , about the same as t o t a l farm cash r e c e i p t s . In 1971, $127 m i l l i o n of new commercial vehicles were bought. (Sourcet F i n a n c i a l & Economic Review, 1972, Department of Finance, V i c t o r i a , p. 62). 2 Winfrey and Zellner quote the U.S. experience (NCHRP Report No. 122, p. 59) - $11 b i l l i o n f o r accidents, $13 b i l l i o n f o r highways per year. Many of the highways are designed with accident reduction as a major objective. From an I l l i n o i s study of 1958, r u r a l accidents accounted for 25% and commercial vehicles" accidents 10% of the t o t a l (p. 6 0 ) . In B.C., i n 1970, 28% of the 70,000 accidents were i n r u r a l areas, 10% of a l l vehicles involved were commercial. ( S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 53001, Motor Vehicle T r a f f i c Accidents, 1 9 7 0 ) . 3 Scores taken from calculations prepared mainly f o r Chapter 7 of t h i s t h e s i s . CHAPTER 6 EVALUATING IMPROVEMENTS IN LINK CHARACTERISTICS 6.1 INTRODUCTION A c c e s s i b i l i t y i s a p o t e n t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between at l e a s t two locations. I t i s r e a l i z e d only by users making, or intending to make, t r i p s or contacts between places. I t implies an element of cost, and not just a physical connection. K i s s l i n g (1966), 0'Sullivan (1969) and Wheat (I969) have shown that r e a l i z a t i o n of the p o t e n t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p i s quite sensi-t i v e to the costs of movement and to the structure and content of a c t i v i t i e s at the various l o c a t i o n s . This chapter argues that part of the e f f e c t of highway investment on a c c e s s i b i l i t y throughout the Province can be seen i n a p a r t i c u l a r class of road user - large trucks - which r e l a t e s quite c l o s e l y to the more basic economic a c t i v i t i e s . The improvement bought by investment has to pass through the medium of road users before i t s e f f e c t s can be expressed i n other a c t i v i t i e s . The measure-ment of improvement provides a basis f o r examining responses i n road-oriented a c t i v i t i e s at various locations. The following sections attempt to j u s t i f y , f i r s t l o g i c a l l y , then from empirical evidence, the choice of a large truck f o r measuring improvements i n roads. The great importance 124 125 of trucking a c t i v i t y , e s p e c i a l l y i n B.C., w i l l be demonstrated. The content, methods and empirically-tested r e l a t i o n s h i p s involved i n the simulation of truck costs i n B.C., are presen-ted i n the fourth section of t h i s chapter, and i n Appendix I I I . The f i n a l section presents some of the output of the simulation, and o f f e r s some evidence on i t s r e l i a b i l i t y . In chapter 7» the simulated costs w i l l be used i n a network context, to show the variable degrees of improvement bought by i n d i v i d u a l l i n k i n -vestments. The correspondence of truck costs and investment, and of truck costs and t r a f f i c flows w i l l be considered. Estimates of actual savings to large trucks through road im-provements are attempted i n chapter 7 and 8 , the reasoning being that the •surplus' has to be accumulated at the service function ( i . e . f r e i g h t operations) before savings w i l l be passed on to, and cause adjustments i n , other a c t i v i t i e s . 6.2 THE CHOICE OF A LARGE TRUCK FOR EVALUATING LINK CHANGES Current users are the f i r s t beneficiaries of road im-provements: a new pot e n t i a l i n production and consumption i s provided by the change i n running cost, t r a v e l time, comfort, safety and increased capacity. Studies from the U.S. show that commercial vehicles usually gain more than private v e h i c l e s . 1 This r e s u l t s from the higher time cost of commercial vehicles 2 and d r i v e r s ' wages, and the greater significance of these items i n t o t a l cost. At 1970 prices, the t o t a l cost f o r heavy truck t r a v e l over 50,000 miles i s about $22,000, of which f u e l i s $4,000, repair s and tyres $7,000, and d r i v e r s ' wages and 126 depreciation of equipment about $11,000.^ I t i s un l i k e l y that truck cost reductions would ever determine by themselves the a l l o c a t i o n of investment, since commercial vehicles make up only 20-25$ of r e g i s t r a t i o n s i n Canada and U.S., many of them involved i n urban a c t i v i t y where they are greatly out-numbered by private and commuter vehicles, or involved i n regionally-dispersed but l o c a l l y - o r i e n t e d farm a c t i v i t y . But trucking a c t i v i t y i s a good ind i c a t o r of response to road improvement, as i t i s an expression of transport as a derived demand. The truck i s more t i e d to basic economic a c t i v i t y than the car. The truck can be regarded as part of the highway f a c i l i t i e s . Truck transport i s part of the t o t a l production costs for a place. The private ear can be regarded as consumer of the highway f a c i l i t i e s ? i t i s part of the f i n a l demand at t r i b u t a b l e to a place. Observation of the private car r a i s e s the question of personal t r a v e l and recreation, a higher order and more variable activity,-* not so c l o s e l y t i e d to general economic a c t i v i t y at a point. This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y true of B.C., where the amount of personal t r a v e l varies greatly from season to season, and probably also i n orient a t i o n (e.g. metropolitan residents touring the central and northern i n t e r i o r , and r e s i -dents of resource-exploiting towns t r a v e l l i n g to warmer and/or urban areas a f t e r a confined winter). Most of the i n i t i a l development of primary resources i n B.C. has been r e l a t e d to r a i l or water transport. However, further growth of these urban places has been i n h i b i t e d by i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y of various kinds, a small l o c a l market, and 127 concentration on a few very s p e c i a l i z e d functions. "Inacces-s i b i l i t y " can include factors of high cost, seasonal disruption, discomfort, u n r e l i a b i l i t y , c i r c u i t o u s routes and remoteness from major paths i n the system. Highway development has enabled greater contact with other towns and sub-regions, an increase i n v i s i t o r or passing t r a f f i c (which constitutes an enlarged market), opportunity f o r t e r t i a r y a c t i v i t y , and competition with r a i l and water transport. Competition has not been confined simply to inter-urban f r e i g h t charges - delivery time, point-to-point service, and f l e x i b i l i t y of schedules and routing have been important f a c t o r s . ^ Where the road provides i n i t i a l access to an area, new economic development may follow, depending on resources, r e l a t i v e attractiveness, supporting a c t i v i t i e s , remoteness from e x i s t i n g supply or production centres, and the dynamism i n the economy generally. Such development would c e r t a i n l y be r e f l e c -ted i n trucking a c t i v i t y . But the investment i n B.C. roads since 19k6 has been l a r g e l y f o r a vast improvement of e x i s t i n g l i n k s , and f o r connections to already-developing areas. So the re-f l e c t i o n of investment i n trucking a c t i v i t y i s not so obvious as with i n i t i a l access i i t now depends on the degree of improve-ment bought, together with the transport needs of a c t i v i t i e s at a place, and with the a b i l i t y of those a c t i v i t i e s to respond to the new'field of potential'.'' This f i e l d of p o t e n t i a l r e s u l t s from the present loca-t i o n of users, t h e i r remoteness, and the shape and capacity of the network. Partly because of the importance of paths through the system, and p a r t l y because of the varying market size and 128 range of a c t i v i t i e s , i t i s not simply a point-to-point pheno-menon, i . e . the p o t e n t i a l spreads over continuous space around favoured locations, the concentric ranges of advantage being bent towards the through paths to exploit passing flow or make use of the lower costs of movement on the generally superior f a c i l i t i e s . The a b i l i t y of a node or sub-region to respond depends, i n general terms, on i t s maturity or l e v e l of develop-8 9 ment. More s p e c i f i c a l l y , i t depends on the mix of a c t i v i t i e s , some of which w i l l be able to trap more of the market, either from the flow on a path or from areas previously served from other locations. Thus, distance from competing centres i s a 10 determining factor i n the response. Some places may benefit from improved a c c e s s i b i l i t y , but because of t h e i r d i f f e r i n g demands f o r transportation, not a l l a c t i v i t i e s at a place w i l l respond i n s i m i l a r fashion. The favoured a c t i v i t i e s might en-large or improve t h e i r f a c i l i t i e s , the investment being released by reductions i n supply or d i s t r i b u t i o n costs (increased pro-f i t s ) , or being made i n a n t i c i p a t i o n of reduced t r i p cost of shoppers (increased s a l e s ) . Focussing on truck costs disposes one to f i n d the f i r s t type of adjustment, where some of the new p o t e n t i a l has been trapped. The p l o t t i n g of truck cost savings l a t e r i n t h i s and the next chapter, w i l l show which places and which routes have been more favoured than others, suggesting places worth examining f o r t h e i r economic response. But caution i s needed i n affirming the strength of the r e l a t i o n s h i p . Wheat ( I 9 6 9 ) postulated a close r e l a t i o n s h i p between 'interstate freeway access' and 'increased manufacturing a c t i v i t y * i n the U.S., but found that i t had to be supported as 129 well with such factors as i n i t i a l s ize of c i t i e s and the existence of a i r services. Werner (1968) suggested that more attention should be paid to the e f f i c i e n c y of networks, and not just t h e i r s t r u c t u r a l a t t r i b u t e s , i n assessing economic response. In the same publication, Gauthier took a second look at the road system of Sao Paulo State i n B r a z i l , to add a capacity constraint to the inter-urban l i n k s , to better r e f l e c t the r e a l i t y of p o t e n t i a l use. In h i s 1970 a r t i c l e , Gauthier relaxed even further the r e l a t i o n s h i p between trans-port investment and economic development. Empirical studies, e s p e c i a l l y those of the Brookings I n s t i t u t e series, support t h i s tendency. 1 1 In 1959, Z e t t e l was warning that although highway investment sets up a g r a v i t a t i o n a l p u l l f o r some places, and s t a r t s a chain reaction, the timing and d i r e c t i o n of that reaction cannot be clos e l y mapped. The d i f f i c u l t y i s i n the use and incidence of benefit. Some part of highway benefit goes into lowering d i s t r i b u t i o n and production costs, which might be passed on as lower f i n a l p r i c e s . Assuming an e l a s t i c demand f o r goods and services, t o t a l demand w i l l then increase, thus generating more a c t i v i t y . But a large part of the high-way benefit does not release income nor provide f o r added pro-duction - i t i s contained i n personal time, convenience and comfort, which can be at t r i b u t e d almost t o t a l l y to private cars. The underlying implication i s that highway investment and change i n transportation costs w i l l induce some growth. Wil l s (1971) showed that i n B.C., economic growth measured by l i q u o r sales at nodes was generally well i n advance of changes i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y - a r e f l e c t i o n of the resource-based a c t i v i t i e s 130 r e l y i n g on r a i l and water transport. The higher order a c t i -v i t i e s w i l l be more clos e l y r e l a t e d to road development, f o r they require more frequent and more f l e x i b l e movement of people and goods than i s offered by other modes. Increasing integration of the p r o v i n c i a l economy w i l l e n t a i l more use of variable routing, i . e . trucks, than the more confined and centralized r a i l routes. Expansion of market range of some centres of the In t e r i o r w i l l be permitted or constrained by road conditions and running costs rather than by r a i l service. Lower f r e i g h t charges w i l l a f f e c t only some a c t i v i -t i e s . Reductions i n factor costs of resource-processing i n -dustries w i l l generally be of minor importance, although some benefit w i l l accrue to quarrying and logging operations that can use highways rather than t r a i l s ; and some production centres, such as Cassiar, would probably respond to better road connections. Primary producers w i l l probably benefit, ei t h e r by increasing sales over a wider market, or by lower d i s t r i b u t i o n costs which w i l l allow them increased economies of scale, higher p r o f i t s , or to compete i n price with producers from other areas - f o r example, Cariboo beef with Alberta beef, or Okanagan f r u i t with imported f r u i t . But which urban func-tions are affected? R e t a i l e r s w i l l generally be able to reduce t h e i r prices or increase t h e i r v a r i e t y of stock, there-by a t t r a c t i n g a wider market i f there i s s u f f i c i e n t e l a s t i c i t y of demand f o r t h e i r goods. Thus they might capture part of the market of other centres. Wholesalers might be able to reduce t h e i r stock, because of increased r e l i a b i l i t y and speed of service? some might even be forced out by wholesalers at 131 larger centres. This has occurred with r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n of gasoline and milk d i s t r i b u t i o n . Commercial a c t i v i t y serving people and businesses w i l l show l i t t l e response to f r e i g h t cost reductions, f o r i t i s e s s e n t i a l l y market-oriented, being affected more by the p r e v a i l i n g cost and frequency of private t r i p s and by the a v a i l a b i l i t y of al t e r n a t i v e communication. So the r e l a t i o n between truck cost reductions and economic a c t i v i t y must be l i m i t e d i n general to a set of a c t i -v i t i e s , occurring i n places having a ce r t a i n remoteness from competing places. Tracing out the truck cost savings shows up part of the new poten t i a l due to investment i n roads; the structure of a c t i v i t y at favoured nodes would need to be known i n order to suggest with some certainty the response; and the size and type of subsequent investment would need to be known i n order to i d e n t i f y the degree and nature of response to the new p o t e n t i a l . 6 . 3 TRUCKS IN THE TOTAL TRAFFIC I f a connection i s implied between truck cost savings and response of user a c t i v i t i e s , the question a r i s e s as to how much costs have to change before the savings become usable, both to truck operators and to shippers. Many studies of user bene-f i t ( c i t e d i n following pages) have wrestled with t h i s problem. Realization of time savings depends on the degree of improve-ment r e l a t i v e to t o t a l t r a v e l time; on the r e l a t i v e importance of time i n the t o t a l t r i p cost; on the purpose of the t r i p ; on the income l e v e l of users; on the importance of other t r a v e l 132 features such as comfort, convenience, r e l i a b i l i t y , d i r e c t -ness, safety, and congestion? and on the r e l a t i v e a t t r i b u t e s of competing modes of transport. Such features are l a r g e l y subjective? more objective evaluation occurs where time savings are r e a l i z a b l e i n out-of-pocket or c a p i t a l costs, or are v i t a l to the marketing of goods and services. Generally, commuter t r a f f i c has a low evaluation of the money cost of time, weighing against convenience, privacy and congestion. Tourist and r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a f f i c has a r e l a -t i v e l y low evaluation of time savings, being more concerned with safety, amenity, r e l i a b i l i t y and comfort. Personal and business t r a v e l probably weights time and comfort together, e s p e c i a l l y over longer distances where t r a i n or a i r t r a v e l becomes possible. I t would seem then, that the technique of converting time savings to money values stands on weak l o g i c a l grounds. Yet these generalized assertions above, do not match one's personal experience - people do show a great s e n s i t i v i t y to delays. The apparent contradiction between response to time cost and response to money cost has stimulated much research. 1 Winfrey and Zellner (1971» p. 6l) sum up the problem: "Travel time has psychological a t t r i b u t e s that give i t , perhaps, an importance beyond i t s r e a l monetary value. People do not l i k e to be delayed ...are more s a t i s f i e d i f they keep moving while i n t h e i r vehicles ...even pre-f e r r i n g that to a t r i p that requires l e s s time but involves more stops." The need to put a value on the cost of time has been imposed by the accepted technique of highway economy studies. Time savings are often the main j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r projects, 133 hence the need to convince the financing a u t h o r i t i e s that time means money. In a review of cost-benefit studies, F l e i s c h e r ( 1 9 6 2 , p. 1 2 - 3 ) found that time benefits ranged from 4 3 $ to 1 3 k $ of a l l other benefits. Commercial vehicle time was 37$ to 73$ of a l l benefits att r i b u t a b l e to a l l users* time, and was 17$ to 88$ of a l l benefits i n another set of studies. But f o r most personal t r a v e l , including commuting, time savings do not release any income f o r other purposes (unless one i s going to assert that 'income* i s a function of a l l time and money together). Truck operators probably perceive place to place time savings as v i t a l , e s p e c i a l l y i f the conversion from time to money savings i s r e a l i z a b l e . Employed drivers, who i n B.C. can choose to be paid an hourly or a per mile r a t e , 1 ^ would regard time savings as a bonus i n leisure? i f time saved can be turned into more t r i p s and more miles covered i n a month, then they gain i n money terms as well, and the truck owners gain greater revenue-miles from e x i s t i n g capacity. For each type of t r a v e l , there i s a minimum at which time savings become meaningful. Thomas (1967) suggested that commuters do not value time savings of l e s s than 5 minutes per t r i p . Small savings f o r one vehicle, m u l t i p l i e d by the d a i l y t r a f f i c , and then valued at an average hourly cost, do not give a r e a l i s t i c measure of benefit. Gver-the-road savings of up to 30 minutes mean l i t t l e to most t r a v e l l e r s and truck drivers, the savings being used by the l a t t e r f o r longer stops or more relaxed paperwork and checking of equipment. 1^ Unless or u n t i l the truck driver or operator sees the advantage of rearranging hi s schedule f o r the whole round t r i p , properly co-ordinated 134 with terminal f a c i l i t i e s , then small savings from l i n k to l i n k w i l l not be 'added up' and used. Fl e i s c h e r (1962, p.5,1?,289) refuted the assumptions underlying time-savings analysis i n highway economy. Time saved does not have immediate economic value. Not a l l i n c r e -ments of saving can be added, he said, hence the f a l l a c y of valuing t o t a l hours of time saved at the average s t r a i g h t - l i n e time f o r drivers and vehic l e s . Minimum hours and subsistence arrangements f o r drivers often negate the p o t e n t i a l savings to the owners of over-the-road and terminal changes. 'Large' time savings might make a difference i n operations over a cer-t a i n range, provided that cargo supply i s continuous, and drivers' hours f l e x i b l e - i n which case operators could hope to achieve a greater revenue-mileage over a year. Certainly out-of-pocket costs w i l l be reduced as roads are improved - f o r tyres, brakes, suspension, accidents -but, as has been emphasized they are small i n r e l a t i o n to time costs. The conclusion of F l e i s c h e r , a f t e r studying a f l e e t operation on the U.S. West Coast, was that the company was un-able to take advantage of gains due to road improvements u n t i l •substantial* gains accrued over an eight-year period, allowing reorganization of operations, schedules and warehousing (p.286-9). His study deals with only one company. I t i s l i k e l y that competitors, while i n h i b i t i n g the readjustment of the observed company, entered the industry to provide better service, perhaps d e f l a t i n g f r e i g h t charges r e l a t i v e to other prices, and thus d e l i v e r i n g to the economy generally some of the savings to be expected from improved roads. I t i s l a r g e l y the structure 135 of the industry and competing modes, (including the ramifica-tions of regulation), and the transport needs of a c t i v i t y i n a region, that determine the e f f e c t of improved operations on producers and consumers. There i s a lag time, and possibly an indeterminate r e l a t i o n s h i p , between road improvements and truck operations, and between truck operators* and users' ad-justments. These weaknesses are kept i n mind i n the simulation of cost savings i n the following pages - the savings are i n d i -cative only, and t h e i r e f f e c t s need to be studied nearer to the l e v e l explored by F l e i s c h e r . R e s t r i c t i n g the cost estimates to large trucks only, excludes a large proportion of highway users. In 1950, there were 288,000 vehicles registered i n B.C., of which 74,000 were commercial. The l a t t e r were growing at about 9$ per year. 1^ In 1 9 6 1 , the t o t a l was 584,000, of which 117,000 were commercial} and i n 1 9 7 1 , the figures were 1,084,000 and 228,000 r e s p e c t i -1 6 vely. Commercial vehicles include a wide range of vans and l i g h t trucks, often associated with l o c a l delivery, small ser-vices and farming. 'In t e r - c i t y f o r - h i r e * r e g i s t r a t i o n s were 7$ of a l l commercial vehicles i n 1 9 6 4 , but accounted f o r about 80$ 17 of ton-miles covered by commercial v e h i c l e s . ' On the i n t e r -state freeway i n Oregon, Fl e i s c h e r ( 1 9 6 2 , p. 36) found trucks to be 19$ of a l l vehicles, the heavy trucks alone being 6 $ . Commercial vehicles i n observed r u r a l t r a f f i c vary with the time 1 8 of day - at 4 a.m., about 65$ of t o t a l t r a f f i c ; at 6 a.m., 35$} at 8 a.m., 18$; at noon, 14$; and at 6 p.m., 1 1 $ . Observations during daytime t r a v e l i n July and Septem-ber, 1 9 7 2 , on the main highways of B.C., showed trucks to be 136 about 10% of t r a f f i c passing i n the opposite d i r e c t i o n , heavy trucks being 7%. Sawhill et a l , ( 1 9 7 0 , p, 36) found that large trucks were about 6% of t o t a l t r a f f i c on metropolitan freeways about Seattle, declining to 1% i n peak periods. Saal ( 1950) found that a l l commercial trucks made up 18% of t r a f f i c on 4-lane highways, and 25% on freeways. This proportion would probably have changed since then, as the rate of increase of 19 private vehicles has exceeded that of commercial vehic l e s . 7 T r a f f i c counts i n B.C. do not d i f f e r e n t i a t e between types of vehic l e . However, a survey c a r r i e d out i n the summer of 1972 by the Department of Highways attempted to give a break-20 down of composition. At 4 6 stations, observations were made fo r parts of one or two days during July or August, to count the number of cars, v i s i t i n g cars, campers, pick-ups, l i g h t and heavy trucks and buses. Since most observations began at 9 a.m. or 10 a.m., and ended at 4 p.m. or 5 p.m., the propor-t i o n of trucks i n the t o t a l d a i l y t r a f f i c i s underestimated. Many trucks, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the summer, w i l l move at night time to avoid other t r a f f i e and to meet schedules. Also, the car t r a f f i c has greater seasonal v a r i a t i o n than the truck t r a f -f i c . The o v e r a l l r e s u l t s of the survey showed heavy trucks as 5% of weekday t r a f f i c , 2% of weekend t r a f f i e , and 3.7% o v e r a l l . I f l i g h t trucks are included, the percentages are 1 1 , 5» and 8 respec t i v e l y . The Department of Commercial Transport keeps aggregate annual figures f o r vehicles c a l l i n g at weigh stations. The count i s done manually, and there i s some doubt about i t s 137 r e l i a b i l i t y . The stations do not operate around the clock, so that many truck movements are unrecorded. The t o t a l checked has remained remarkably constant - 1 .31 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 6 6 - 7 , 1 . 3 4 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 6 9 - 7 0 . In 1 9 7 0 - 1 , there was a general slump to 1 . 2 7 m i l l i o n , but t h i s recovered to 1 . 3 9 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 7 1 - 2 . Considering that there are about 18 , 0 0 0 ' i n t e r - c i t y f o r - h i r e ' 21 r e g i s t r a t i o n s , and allowing f o r out-of-province operators, then the check-ins per heavy truck are only about 70 per year. This seems rather low f o r the l i k e l y annual mileage of 5 0 , 0 0 0 , suggesting that the weight-checking stations have a poor time-and area-coverage. Comparison with general counts at the per-manent t r a f f i e stations supports that contention. Thirteen locations were comparable i n 1971 - commercial vehicles avera-ged only about 1 . 4 $ of annual t r a f f i c . Excluding those stations obviously counting much commuter t r a f f i c (such as east of Patullo Bridge) the proportion was 4 . 2 $ , s t i l l very low i n r e l a t i o n to r e g i s t r a t i o n s . The Annual Report of the Department of Highways records t r a f f i c on f e r r i e s . Taking a random sample of years and places i n the l a s t decade, 'trucks' have averaged 21$ of t o t a l vehicles carried, I t should be noted that most of the f e r r i e s now occur on the branch routes only: that i s , not serving inter-urban t r a f f i c as defined i n t h i s study. Neverthe-l e s s , the complete coverage by f e r r y operators r e s u l t s i n a figure nearer to the r e g i s t r a t i o n s . S t a t i s t i c s Canada (see r e f . 6 :17) provided an outline of truck operations i n the pro-vince i n 1 9 6 4 . The average yearly mileage f o r heavy trucks was 3 0 , 0 0 0 ; the average revenue per truck was about $ 1 3 , 0 0 0 ; 138 and the average ton-mile revenue about 4 , 5 cents. I t i s in t e r e s t i n g to note that 33% of the t o t a l mileage was covered while the truck was empty, and that 63% of t o t a l ton-mile ca-pacity was used, i n d i c a t i n g the frequent absence of back-haul loads. Live animals gave the highest ton-mile revenue at 14 cents, general f r e i g h t gave 5 cents, crude materials 5 , and fresh food 3 . 6 , The T o r - h i r e Trucking Survey of B.C. 1970* S t a t i s t i c s Canada, series 53-224) updates the previous information. I t provides some in t e r e s t i n g commentary on the imbalance of flows and revenues to and from Vancouver (see chapter 8 of t h i s t h e s i s ) . There i s a greater d i s p a r i t y i n revenues than i n tonnages, be-cause the shipments 'valuable* to truck operators, such as general f r e i g h t and end products, are those which originate mostly i n or from Vancouver. The estimated t o t a l revenues of fo r - h i r e i n t e r - c i t y c a r r i e r s was $195 m i l l i o n i n 1970 - about the same as t o t a l farm cash r e c e i p t s ! 22 U.S. studies i n 1957 showed that trucks took 61% of frozen f r u i t and vegetable shipments, 90% of poultry, 50% of canned goods, and were gnerally increasing t h e i r share. In B.C., the proportions are probably higher, because of the les s competitive r a i l service and the gathering of populated areas within the competitive range of trucks. Parcel mail out of the Lower Mainland has been d i s t r i b u t e d by truck rather than t r a i n since 1 9 6 2 . Some trans-continental hauliers o f f e r faster-than-r a i l service. A l l of the fresh f r u i t moves by truck. Some imported cars are taken by truck from Vancouver to Edmonton. 139 More fresh f i s h i s being trucked out of Prince Rupert to the P r a i r i e and U.S. I n t e r i o r markets. A l l these are only sug-gestions of the importance of truck operations. Obviously, the data from which to assess the importance of trucking i n the t o t a l transport function of B.C. i s very patchy and i n some cases, un r e l i a b l e . A separate study i s required to analyze the importance and structure of the trucking industry i n B.C., to d e t a i l the changes due to road investment, technology, compe-t i t i o n , and users* preference, and to support an understanding of s p a t i a l changes i n the economy. 6.4 METHOD OF SIMULATION OF TRUCK OPERATING COSTS The accuracy of a simulation depends on the q u a l i t y of data available, on the strength and s t a b i l i t y of l o g i c a l l y -or empirically-supported r e l a t i o n s h i p s , and on the successful arrangement i n steps of natural or induced processes that are generally f l u i d and continuous. Quantities and r e l a t i o n s h i p s have to vary by measureable degrees, or be ignored by the simu-l a t i o n . The fineness of measurement depends mainly on the pur-poses of the simulation. I f one i s seeking the * truth* i n t r a v e l costs between places, then the simulation includes such d e t a i l as o i l consumption, gear changes, r i s e and f a l l i n feet, drivers* response to congestion, drivers* fringe benefits, and so on. Less d e t a i l would be required to provide a f l e e t opera-tor with an estimate of h i s running costs. For most studies of s p a t i a l r elationships i n Geography, even more generalized measurements have been made, using only time or t o t a l distance 140 data. I t was suggested i n an e a r l i e r chapter that the deter-rent component i n the gravity model ought to be more thoroughly described and quantified - but not to the extent of having a fi n e measure i n the denominator as against a gross measure i n the numerator. Since the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t r a v e l cost, frequency of t r a v e l , prices of goods and general economic a c t i -v i t y are not c l e a r l y defined nor necessarily determinate, i t would be inconsistent to apply a s t r i c t estimate of costs to a rather vague assessment of response. Indicative quantities only are required f o r t h i s study, to pick out the varying degree of change f o r l i n k s In the network. The most detailed simulations of truck costs have come from the c i v i l engineers, some working on engine and 23 vehicle design, others on the design of f a c i l i t i e s . J Increa-sing refinement of the parameters usually e n t a i l s a m u l t i p l i -cation of the data requirements, hence the r e s t r i c t i o n of 24 empirical tests to very small sections of highways. Highway economy studies generalize from the basic research. J Guide-l i n e s f o r use on evaluation of projects generalize further, adjusting to the data available and to the purposes of the e v a l u a t i o n . ^ Roberts (1966) used a substantial amount of d e t a i l i n preparing a simulation f o r truck costs i n developing countries. The 8 variables f o r the l i n k and 12 f o r the truck require some data not generally available i n that s i t u a t i o n . The fineness of the simulation and the e f f o r t required, seem out of balance with the type and degree of response which one might expect i n those circumstances. A s i m i l a r c r i t i c i s m might be applied to 141 the simulation used by G r i f f i t h s (1968), which included very f i n e margins of f u e l , o i l , and tyre costs i n a model fo r assessing road development projects i n Dahomey. Gauthier described the d i f f i c u l t y of obtaining information on trans-portation costs i n B r a z i l , mainly because the industry " i s characterized by a large number of very small firms" (1968, p. 108). Using l o c a l l y generated estimates, Gauthier included overhead charges, i n i t i a l equipment costs and administrative expenses to derive a set of values r e l a t i n g transport costs to length of haul over d i f f e r e n t types of surface. The r e l a -tionship between t r a v e l cost and administrative and overhead costs was discussed by Stevens (1961) and Adkins et a l . ( 1 9 6 7 ) ; generally, the r e l a t i o n s h i p i s too weak or indeterminate to f i x a measure of gain due to road improvement. 2? K i s s l i n g (1966) r e l i e d mainly on the guidelines of Stevens ( I 9 6 I ) and AASHO ( i 9 6 0 ) i n obtaining running speeds and operating costs f o r Nova Scotia, from a highway inventory taking i n 10 variables. For lack of time and information, the present study takes i n only 7 variables describing the l i n k , to derive running speeds, 28 l i n k time and cost for a 70,000 l b . gross tandem s e m i - t r a i l e r . Elaboration of the content and mechanics of the simulation i s provided i n Appendix I I I . The description of l i n k s i n the B.C. road system has been compiled from topographic maps, t o u r i s t maps, and by t r a c i n g the development his t o r y of each l i n k through the accounts i n the Annual Reports. The years 1952, 1962 and 1971 have been chosen to mark stages i n highway development. Route data before 1952 are scarce; investment data are available only u n t i l March 1971» 142 at the time of writing. Distances and f e r r y delays have been taken from published t o u r i s t maps. Zones of l e g a l speed r e s t r i c t i o n s have been estimated from topographic maps and, i n the l a t e s t year, from personal observations. The type and condition of surfaces has been taken from t o u r i s t maps, topo-graphic maps, references i n the accounts, and personal obser-vation. Lane and roadway widths - f o r which the data are l e a s t r e l i a b l e - have been estimated from topographic maps, references i n the accounts and personal observation. Grades have been estimated rather crudely from topographic maps, c a l c u l a t i n g the t o t a l r i s e and f a l l over a l i n k , and modifying the gradient factor where references i n the accounts suggested c u t - a n d - f i l l or redesign operations had taken place. Curves could not be estimated from the available information. Volume of t r a f f i c was measured from the Department of Highways summer t r a f f i c counts of 1953, 1954, 1962, and 1971. Average running speeds on straight, l e v e l , unimpeded 29 surfaces were set at 50mph, f o r paved and 38mph. f o r gravel. 7 Speeds within l e g a l zones were set at 20mph.^° - l e g a l zones indicate a higher frequency of intersections, crosswalks, t r a f -f i c l i g h t s , stop signs, on-street parking etc., which reduce speeds within urban areas. Personal observation on a Thursday i n September, 1972, of trucks passing through Kamloops and Vernon, supported the 20mph. estimate. Lane and roadway widths reduce desired or free speed. From the sources referr e d t o , ^ 1 a range of factors was derived fo r Table XI. Indications from comparison of calculated and observed speeds suggest that greater r e s t r i c t i v e influence 143 should apply on narrow and r e s t r i c t e d roads i n the e a r l i e r years, TABLE XI PERCENTAGE OF FREE SPEED, UNDER WIDTH RESTRICTIONS Description Open i Narrow* Restricted* Range 12' lanes, good shoulders, good v i s i o n ...... 96 - 100 10*-12* lanes, poor shoulders, adequate v i s i o n 88 - 95 l e s s than 10* lanes, poor shoulders, poor v i s i o n ...... 82 - 88 The danger i s that the width fa c t o r i s applied with the grade and volume fac t o r i n h i l l y winding sections, giving an unreal-i s t i c cumulative r e s t r a i n t ; whereas the presence of a grade fac t o r more or l e s s cancels out the e f f e c t of a width factor, as the vehicle i s slowed by gravity rather than by driver's caution. A measurement of the t o t a l r i s e and f a l l was taken from maps, i . e . each time the road crossed a 1 0 0 ' contour l i n e . The average r i s e and f a l l , a s l i g h t l y better indicator of seve-r i t y , was found by div i d i n g the t o t a l by the l i n k distance. This measure i s not as precise as K i s s l i n g ' s ' c r i t i c a l gradient* ( 1 9 6 9 , p. 114) i n measuring the e f f e c t s on truck speed. A range of factors was derived from experiments elsewhere.-^2 Grades also increase the rate of f u e l consumption by a greater margin than that caused by a decrease i n speed, due to gear reduction. So a factor f o r extra f u e l consumption on grades was added, (see Table XII). 144 TABLE XII INDICES OF FREE SPEED AND NORMAL CONSUMPTION, DUE TO INCREASING RISE AND FALL Rise and F a l l * ( t o t a l R.and F. 1 2 3 4 5 6 •f miles) Modern paved 95 85 74 62 53 46 Old paved 93 82 71 57 47 40 Gravel 98 92 81 72 66 60 Consumption 110 120 145 170 200 230 * Total Rise and F a l l i s found by counting the number of times the road crosses 100* contour l i n e s , then multiplying by •7J|§§» "to supply the scale with an integer. Note« reductions of speed on gravel are l e s s severe because of the lower base speeds a t t r i b u t a b l e to gravel roads. The reductions on modern pavements are r e l a t i v e l y l e s s severe because of the r e a l i g n i n g of curves, grades and cuttings during reconstruction. Incorporation of a f a c t o r to r e f l e c t volume of t r a f -f i c was most d i f f i c u l t . The t r a f f i c counts are patchy and do not t e l l of the frequency of trucks i n the t o t a l stream. The summer counts overstate the average annual d a i l y flow. Without knowing the hourly d i s t r i b u t i o n s of t r a f f i c , i t i s impossible to deduce the length of periods when flow i s approaching capa-c i t y . Also, one can only generalize very broadly i n saying that truck drivers and owners w i l l avoid congested periods by rescheduling. Such rescheduling c a r r i e s an extra penalty to the operator i n overtime or night s h i f t rates, so the a p p l i c a t i o n of a factor f o r daytime congestion i s not e n t i r e l y i n d i s c r i m i -nate (Table XIII). Fuel consumption varies according to running speed, 34 gross weight, engine power, gradients and so on. 145 TABLE XIII PERCENTAGE OF FREE SPEED, UNDER AVERAGE DAILY FLOWS Volume Paved Gravel ^ 3 5 0 0 per day, 2 lane 100 100 3500 - 5500 93 97 ^ 5 5 0 0 92 90 Note: the factors are somewhat i n f l a t e d f o r t h i s simulation, since they are applied a f t e r width and grade fa c t o r s . t the greater hazard of v i s i o n and increased spacing reduces the speed on gravel surfaces by a s l i g h t l y wider margin. t r e f . Saal ( 1 9 5 0 ) , p. 21j AASH0 ( i 9 6 0 ) , p. 2 9 , 6 6 , 80; and de Weille (1966), p. 4 9 . For s i m p l i c i t y , t h i s simulation t i e s consumption to speeds and gradients only. Consumption decreases f o r speeds from 20 to 3 5 m p h , , then s t a r t s to increase (see Table XIV). Fuel i s one cost whose t o t a l might r i s e because of improvements to road f a c i l i t i e s . Cost per gallon i s set at 40 cents. TABLE XIV INDICATIVE FUEL CONSUMPTION AT AVERAGE RUNNING SPEEDS (vehicle 3-S - 2 , d i e s e l , 7 0 , 0 0 0 1 b . gross) Speed 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Gallons per mile .26 . 2 3 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 2 2 .26 .28 The c a l c u l a t i o n of hourly cost of vehicles and drivers has provided widely d i f f e r i n g values. K i s s l i n g (1966) used $ 3 . 0 0 per hour; Flei s c h e r ( 1962) used $ 3 . 9 0 ; Adkins et a l . (1967) used $4 to $8; Winfrey and Zellner used $ 3 . 7 5 ; and Koppelman used $ 6 . 0 0 . Based on the e x i s t i n g Teamsters* Union contract, d r i v e r s ' wages i n B.C. are set at $ 5 . 0 0 per hour, and 146 an average of $ 0 . 6 0 i s allowed f o r subsistence (meals and overnight stops). Following the example of Adkins et a l . ( 1 9 6 7 , p. 3 6 ) , $2 has been added f o r d r i v e r s ' welfare ( h o l i -days, workers' compensation, etc.) and vehicle depreciation.-^ The j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r these inc l u s i o n s i s that on an improved l i n k , l e s s time i s spent, and therefore l e s s of the d i r e c t operating cost i s attributable to that section. The t o t a l time cost applied i n t h i s simulation i s $ 7 . 5 0 per hour. Vehicle maintenance and repa i r cost i s a complex function of average speed, weight, loads, surfaces, stops, speed changes, curves and grades. Using evidence gathered i n test sections elsewhere, the cost of repairs, maintenance and tyres was set at 18 cents per mile f o r old gravel, 17 cents f o r normal gravel, 13 cents f o r old pavement, and 12 cents f o r pavement under 8 years o l d (where t h i s information was available from maps and the f i n a n c i a l accounts). 6 . 5 OUTPUT FROM THE SIMULATION From the data and.relationships outlined i n the pre-vious section and i n Appendix I I I , truck costs on each l i n k were calculated f o r 1 9 5 2 , 1 9 6 2 , and 1 9 7 1 . An example of the information obtained i s give i n Table XV. Note that the d o l l a r figures are i n 1971 values -t h i s i s the cost of running a 1971 truck at 1971 factor prices over a l i n k whose condition has been described at three stages. The figures are not comparable with Gauthier's - he included administrative and overhead costs, the figures being i n B r a z i l i a n 147 TABLE XV TRUCK OPERATING COSTS ON SELECTED LINKS Year Link Miles Av. Time speed hours Time Fuel Cost Cost $ $ Repairs tyres $ Total Cost 1952 Hope-Princeton 83 31 2 . 7 20.04 1 0 . 7 4 1 0 . 7 9 41 .55 1962 Pentictont Kelowna 48 35 1 . 3 7 1 0 . 2 9 4 . 6 1 5 . 7 6 2 0 . 6 6 1971 Revelstoke -Golden 92 28 3 . 2 7 24 .50 18 . 5 5 1 1 . 9 6 5 5 . 0 1 cruzeiros deflated to 1940 values. However, the figures are somewhat comparable with K i s s l i n g ' s , though he used a 3 0 , 0 0 0 l b , truck and a lower hourly cost. (see Table XVI) TABLE XVI RELIABILITY OF CALCULATED COSTS Links, of mileage ... 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 5 0 - 6 0 60-80 Calculated Costs, 1 9 7 1 . $ 4-11 9-16 1 5 - 27 1 6 - 29 2 2 - 3 0 25-40 Ki s s l i n g ' s costs, Nova Scotia, 1966. $ 5 - 9 9-14 14-18 18-24 25-28 29-40 The times per l i n k from the simulation are comparable with actual observations taken i n 1 9 7 2 , using a small car. Tests of the r e l i a b i l i t y of the small car speeds, taken on s i x d i f f e r e n t l i n k s , showed that they overestimated the truck speed by 4 -8% on f l a t or r o l l i n g t e r r a i n , and by 8 - 1 2 $ on h i l l y t e r r a i n . 148 These have been adjusted f o r i n c l u s i o n i n Table XVII. For further comparison, average running speeds f o r Greyhound buses were taken from the Spring, 1972 schedule. Flei s c h e r ( 1 9 6 2 , p. 74) noted that the average speed f o r the bus was usually about 5-10% f a s t e r than the truck's. For Table XVII, the l i s t e d bus speeds have been reduced by 10%, the higher figure being used because of the frequency of h i l l y country, i n which buses usually perform better than trucks. TABLE XVII RELIABILITY OF CALCULATED SPEEDS, 1971 ,. . Calculated Greyhound Private car Av. speed speed (adj) speed (adj) Tete Jaune -L i t t l e Fort 36.4 37.8 39 Prince George -Tete Jaune 42.6 38.7 42 Cranbrook -Yahk 41.6 41.4 43 Hope - Lytton 36.5 3 6 . 0 39 Greenwood -Osoyoos 28.6 34.2 35 Hope -Princeton 3 3 . 0 3 4 . 2 35 The conclusion from Table XVI and Table XVII i s that the estimates given by the simulation f o r 1971 surfaces are reasonably useful and r e l i a b l e f o r the purposes of t h i s study. The margin of error i s probably greater on those l i n k s which have not been personally tested - Prince Rupert to Prince George and to Fort St. John, and Vernon to Slocan, Nelson, Kootenay Lake and Creston. Some discrepancies appearing i n the output 149 are probably due to error of i n t e r p r e t a t i o n or inadequacy of data. The range of per mile costs i s 40-50 cents f o r most l i n k s , which compares well with Stevens* 1961 estimates of 38-40 cents. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g to note the wider range i n cost estimates as compared with those of Nova Scotia. K i s s l i n g ( 1 9 6 9 , p. 124-5) explained that "average speeds on the l i n k s may seem low ... i t must be remembered that small settlements are numerous i n Nova Scotia ... as well, there are poor overtaking conditions, narrow winding and undulating roads ... narrow bridges." With more open country between l i n k s , average speeds i n B.C. have been much higher f o r equivalent distances. Where average speeds were si m i l a r , as i n the Okanagan and Annapolis v a l l e y s , then the higher vehicle and d r i v e r cost applied i n B.C. forced the t o t a l l i n k cost r e l a t i v e l y higher. On the longer l i n k s , f a s t e r average speeds i n B.C. have kept t o t a l costs within the same range as i n Nova Scotia. I t i s also i n t e r e s t i n g to note the high degree of c o r r e l a t i o n with the l i n k values used by W i l l s ( 1 9 7 1 ) . He allowed 45mph. f o r a private car t r a v e l l i n g over a paved road, and 30mph. over a gravel road. Comparing his ear times and the simulation's truck costs f o r a random 40 l i n k s of 1952 and 1 9 7 1 , the r e s u l t was r = . 9 8 . This shows the close l i n e a r i t y of time and costs, e s p e c i a l l y f o r commercial vehicles, and suggests that i n some cases, a c c e s s i b i l i t y can be f a i r l y evaluated i n terms of l i n k distance, surface and time only. This i s p a r t i -c u l a r l y true where dr i v i n g conditions are 'smoothed out' and costs averaged to a per mile or simulation appears s u f f i c i e n t l y c o r r e l a t i o n on only those l i n k s • r e s t r i c t i v e * f a l l s to r = ,?4. next chapter). 150 per hour basis. However, the discriminating, since the deemed to be * h i l l y ' or (see also Figure 24 i n the 151 REFERENCESi 1 F l e i s c h e r (1962) p. 1 2 } H a l l et a l . (1970) p.35. The l a t t e r found that trucks were 5.6% of t r a f f i c , hut gained 12% of annual time savings on metropolitan freeways. 2 This point demonstrated by Adkins et a l . (1967); and i n U.S. Bureau of Public Roads, Dept. of Commerce ( I 9 6 I ) . 3 The truck referred to i s a d i e s e l tandem-tractor (5 axles i n 3-S-2), gross weight of 7 0 , 0 0 0 1 b s . , which i s quite t y p i c a l of the long-distance hauliers i n B.C. Estimates from gross figures of S t a t i s t i c s Canada, series 53-222, suggest $ 8 , 0 0 0 f o r r e p a i r s and tyres, and $3,000 f o r f u e l , lower f o r the l a t -t er because of the in c l u s i o n i n t h e i r sample of smaller-engine trucks. 4 From the l i t e r a t u r e , i t seems that the truck operators* lobby exerts some pressure f o r the general disposal of funds to highway development, but that i t s maxn e f f o r t i s i n the f i e l d s of taxation and regulation. 5 The proponents of recent work attempting to predict r e c r e a t i o n a l and personal t r a v e l would probably dispute t h i s statement - NCHRP Reports no. 82, 8 9 , 44; Plummer et a l . (1961) p. 74-85j Thomas and Thompson (1970) p. 1-19; Wolfe (1969) p. 1 0 5 - 2 1 . Very simply put, the re c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e l into or out of a place w i l l depend mainly on i t s r e l a t i v e amenity and attractiveness. Two places of equal size and per-sonal income, but of unequal attractiveness, w i l l probably have si m i l a r l e v e l s of truck a c t i v i t y , but d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of recre a t i o n a l t r a v e l . 6 Gray (1969) ch. 5» sets out a users* evaluation of spects of transport service. 7 This term suggested and enlarged upon by Lachene (1964) p. 184-6. 8 Kansky (1963) p. 119-21} Lachene (1964) p. 194 -6; Gauthier (1968) p. 8 9 - 9 I ; Wilson ( 1 9 7 0 ) . 9 Hodge (1965)$ 0 * S u l l i v a n ( 1 9 6 9 ) ; K i s s l i n g ( 1 9 6 7)1 Cummings (1967)1 10 This factor was b u i l t i n t o the models of K i s s l i n g (1966) p. 145; W i l l s (1971); and Haynes and Ip (1971) p. 359. 11 Fromm (I965); Wilson et a l . ( i960); Brown (1966). 12 Adkins et a l . (1967)} Winch ( 1 9 6 3)1 Claffey ( i 9 6 0 , 1 9 6 1)1 Curry ( I 9 6 3 ) ; Thomas and Thompson ( 1970); Thomas (1967)1 Haney (1967$, and Lisco (1967), these l a s t three reported by Winfrey and Zeliner. 152 13 Set out i n the a r t i c l e s of Master Freight and Cartage  Agreement, General Teamsters* Union, Local 181, Vancouver, B.C. i n January, 1 9 7 2 . The hourly rate i s $ 5 . 0 0 , the mileage rate i s $ 0 . 1 5 . I f the average speed f o r the whole t r i p exceeds 3 3 m p h , , then the mileage rate i s more rewarding f o r the hired d r i v e r . 14 Personal view of o f f i c i a l s at Teamsters* Local 181, Vancouver} and v e r i f i e d by an interview i n "New York Times Magazine", 12 Nov., 1 9 7 2 ; and by Fle i s c h e r (1962) p, 1 7 . 15 B.C. Facts and S t a t i s t i c s . 1 9 7 0 . 16 Annual Report, Motor Vehicle Branch. Dept. of Attorney-General, V i c t o r i a , B.C. 1 9 7 1 , p. 7 . 17 Motor Transport T r a f f i c i n B.C. 1 9 6 4 . S t a t i s t i c s Canada, series 53-214. 18 Highway Research Board, Special Report no. 8 7 , I 9 6 I , p. 3 7 . 19 Trend f o r B.C. and Ontario i s assumed to be si m i l a r i n U.S. Commission of Inquiry into Road-user Charges. V i c t o r i a , 1 9 5 9 . p. 1 5 . 20 Output of the survey was kindly made available by Mr, Harding, T r a f f i c Branch, Dept. of Highways, V i c t o r i a . 21 Estimate derived from s t a t i s t i c s c i t e d i n r e f . 16 and 1 7 , above. 22 Reported i n Highway Research Board, B u l l e t i n no. 3 0 1 , January I 9 6 I . p. 2 1 - 8 . 23 Firey and Petersen ( 1 9 6 2 ) ; Clark ( I 9 6 8 ) . 24 Saal ( 1950)} Claffey ( I 9 6 I and 1 9 7 1 ) ; Sawhill et a l . ( 1 9 7 0 ) . 25 Stevens (1961)} Lang and Robbins ( 1962)} Winfrey (1963)} Roberts and Soberman (1967)} Adkins et a l . ( I 9 6 7 ) } Soberman and Clark ( 1 9 7 0 ) . 26 AASH0 ( i 9 6 0 ) } R i t t e r ( I 9 6 0 ) ; Hawkins ( i 9 6 0 ) } de Weille (1966)} G r i f f i t h s (1968)} Koppelman ( 1 9 7 0 ) . 27 This assertion supported by inferences from S t a t i s t i c s Canada, series 5 3 - 0 0 5 ; and from Fleischer's 1962 account of a firm's adjustment. 28 The Dept. of Highways now keeps a detailed inventory of the roads; so, more accurate simulations should be possible i n future. 1 5 3 29 Saal (1950) p. 2 0 ; AASHO ( I 9 6 0 ) p. 8 3 , 9 2 , 9 6 ; Claffey (1961) p. 91 Highway Research Board, Report no. 63 (1969) p. 58} de Weille (1966) p. 14, 5 0 - 1 . 30 Stevens (1961) p. 3 1 , 31 AASHO ( I 9 6 0 ) p. 93 -5 ; Highway Capacity Manual, 1 9 5 0 , p. 535 de Weille ( 1 9 6 6 ) p. 49; K i s s l i n g ( 1 9 6 6 ) Appendix C, p. 4. 32 Saal (1950) p. 2 2 ; de Weille (1966) p. 1 5 ; AASHO ( i 9 6 0 ) p. 7 2 . 33 Soberman and Clark (1970) p. 6 9 ; Stevens (1961) p. 117; de Weille (1966) p. 1 5 ; Saal ( 1950) p. 2 2 . 34 Stevens (1961) p. 1 1 7 ; Kent ( i 9 6 0 ) ; Soberman and Clark (1970) p. 6 9 ; de Weille ( 1966) p. 1 5 , 53. 35 This amount i s j u s t i f i e d as followst i f the vehicle i s reasonably used f o r 50 hours per week f o r 50 weeks, the yearly t o t a l of 2500 hours gives an allowed cost of $ 5 0 0 0 . Since vehicles l a s t about 8 years, with a replacement cost of about $ 3 0 0 0 0 , then the allowed amount w i l l cover replacement and dri v e r s ' welfare. 36 AASHO ( i 9 6 0 ) p. 2 9 ; Stevens ( I 9 6 I ) p. 9 0 ; de Weille (1966) p. 3 0 , 6 0 ; Adkins et a l . ( 1 9 6 7 ) . 37 Repairs: paved, 8 cents; gravel, 1 1 cents. Tyres 1 paved, 5 cents; gravel, 6 cents. CHAPTER 7 CHANGE IN THE NETWORK INDICATED BY TRUCK COSTS 7 . 1 INTRODUCTION The preceding chapter has supplied a reasonable measure of improvement on each l i n k . The sum of the l i n k s at d i f f e r e n t times gives a general idea of change i n the network since 1 9 5 2 . That sum, however, i s not a true r e f l e c t i o n of the use of the network, f o r c e r t a i n l i n k s are more v i t a l than others i n terms of structure and of use. Link importance can be measured i n three ways - by counting the numbert of times a l i n k occurs i n minimum paths between pai r s of nodes? by weighting the l i n k s by recorded or estimated t r a f f i c flow; or by observing the change i n node a c c e s s i b i l i t y scores with successive removal of v i t a l l i n k s from a network. In t h i s chapter, l i n k improvements w i l l f i r s t be considered f o r them-selves, then re l a t e d to investments per l i n k (out of ch. 5)» and then given measurement i n a network context. The intention of t h i s l a s t measurement i s to show that the 'return* on an investment depends very much on where i t i s placed i n the network. 7 . 2 INVESTMENT ALLOCATIONS AND TRUCK COST SAVINGS Some r e l a t i v e l y small a l l o c a t i o n s have achieved 154 155 remarkably large savings (compare F i g . 17 and 18 with F i g . 19 and 2 1 ) . These were cases of upgrading from gravel to tarmac with r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e reconstruction - on the r a d i a l s from Merritt, from Sicamous to Enderby Jn., from Greenwood to Grand Forks, and Dawson Greek to Fort St. John. Such changes r e f l e c t the large penalties applied to speeds and re p a i r costs on gravel surfaces, i n t h i s simulation. For purposes of comparison of investment and truck cost savings, the r a t i o of d o l l a r s per mile to each Ifo saving i n truck costs, i s set out i n F i g . 2 3 . The lower quantities indicate a lower expenditure per unit of savings. Breaching of the passes between Revelstoke and Golden, Salmo and Creston, Cascade and Kinnaird, Osoyoos and Keremeos, Hope and Princeton, appear to have been f u l l y j u s t i f i e d by t h i s measure. Invest-ments i n the bridges at Kelowna, Castlegar and Hudson's Hope, are also shown up favourably. Savings on the Northern Trans-p r o v i n c i a l appear to have come rather 'cheaply*. The huge costs of bringing improvements to built-up areas and confined routes, are shown up by the Vancouver-Hope-Lytton-Cache Creek l i n k s . On the other hand, these costs would be j u s t i f i e d by those l i n k s having the heaviest t r a f f i c flows of the whole net-work. The devious connection between investment a l l o c a t i o n s and truck cost savings has been implied i n the discussion of l i n k investment and node a c t i v i t y i n section k o f chapter 5 . A weak c o r r e l a t i o n was found between the size of investment and change i n t r a f f i c flow on a l i n k . A stronger c o r r e l a t i o n i s to be expected i n r e l a t i n g truck cost savings to t r a f f i c flows, Fig 19. Simulated Heavy-Truck Costs, 1952 Links.($, rounded) Fig 23. Spending per Mile Related to Unit Savings in Truck Costs ($*000 per mile, per 1% saving 1971 over 1952). 161 p a r t l y because improved roads generally d i v e r t and often gene-rate t r a f f i c , p a r t l y because t r a f f i c has been generally i n -creasing over a l l of the Province, and p a r t l y because of the in c l u s i o n of some v i t a l paths i n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r c o r r e l a t i o n . The e f f e c t of such an i n c l u s i o n i s that t r a f f i c on the l i n k i s more rela t e d to the function of the path, rather than to the cost-saving at t r i b u t e s of a p a r t i c u l a r l i n k (see Table XVIII). TABLE XVIII RELATIONSHIP OF INVESTMENT, TRAFFIC FLOWS AND TRUCK COSTS Savings $, 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 7 1 . . . related to: Investment Investment Change i n per l i n k per mile T r a f f i c Flow {221 (27) (allT (27) r .36 . 2 5 . 3 3 .789 exponent .176 .119 .180 41 .8 constant 8 7 . 6 8 7 . 2 8 9 . 7 - 48 .8 That truck cost savings correlate very weakly with the size of investment i s not su r p r i s i n g . I t i s perhaps a f a u l t of the set of observations that gives a higher c o r r e l a t i o n of savings with t o t a l l i n k cost than with per mile l i n k cost -four l i n k s with r e l a t i v e l y huge t o t a l cost cause a strong bias, which i s somewhat weakened a f t e r the d i v i s i o n into per mile cost. For both correlations, build-up of t r a f f i c congestion on some important and costly l i n k s has negated some of the. ef f e c t s of the investment; a more precise timing of the r e l a -tionship might well f i n d strong c o r r e l a t i o n at an e a r l i e r time, gradually decreasing as t r a f f i c increases. This i s indicated 162 by the s l i g h t l y higher c o r r e l a t i o n f o r a l l l i n k s , a grouping which includes a larger proportion of the more remote, uncon-gested l i n k s . The correlations are weakened perhaps because some costly construction items, such as bridges, do not show up as truck cost savings, due to the generality of description used i n the simulation. Nor would t h e i r important e f f e c t s of permitting heavier loads, and of reducing accidents and mainte-nance costs be shown i n truck operating costs. As f o r the c o r r e l a t i o n generally, i t might be that costs i n the e a r l i e r years were underestimated f o r lack of precise information on road surfaces and design, thereby underestimating as well the degree of improvement fo r the l a t e r year. The method of simulation causes underestimation of another kind. Factors i n d i c a t i n g r e s t r i c t i o n caused by t r a f f i c congestion applied only i n the l a s t year, since none of the t r a f f i c counts i n the e a r l i e r year reached the c r i t i c a l l e v e l . I t might well be that a lower l e v e l applied, i n f a c t , i n ear-l i e r years, because of narrower roads. The generality of map descriptions prevented such a f a c t o r being applied f a i r l y J i n any case, the r e s t r i c t i n g width factor had already been applied more to the 1952 surfaces than to those of 1 9 7 1 . The underesti-mation s t i l l occurs, however, because the simulation does not t e l l what would have been the cost of running a truck with present l e v e l s of t r a f f i c , over the old surfaces. This d i f f e r -ence brings up the argument, well presented by G r i f f i t h s ( 1 9 6 8 , ch. 3) that "with and without" tests are often more meaningful than "before and a f t e r " tests, e s p e c i a l l y where t r a f f i c gene-r a t i o n or s h i f t s i n a c t i v i t y occur. 163 The weakness of the correlations shown i n Tables IX and XVIII has important implications f o r development planners. The connections between investment, f a c i l i t i e s bought, trans-port savings and economic response, cannot be assumed to be of a p a r t i c u l a r quantity or p a r t i c u l a r constancy. Ridley ( 1 9 6 9 , p. 4) recognized the fickleness of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s . For h i s model of time savings i n an improved network, he s t i p u l a t e d that unit t r a v e l times on each l i n k vary i n a s p e c i f i e d manner with the amount of investment i n the l i n k . Then, most important, he noted that $ "investment per l i n k and savings per l i n k , vary from l i n k to l i n k " . But as well as these d i s p a r i t i e s , there are often very d i f f e r e n t increases i n public welfare from simi-l a r a l l o c a t i o n s to roads, communications, power development, recreation areas, and so on. I t cannot be expected that sub-regions w i l l a t t r a c t investment from elsewhere (given suitable economic conditions) i n some constant r e l a t i o n to the public investment i n transport i n f r a s t r u c t u r e . 1 Investment, production, p r i c i n g and marketing decisions w i l l be influenced by access-i b i l i t y of d i f f e r e n t kinds, and t h i s varies greatly f o r any given a l l o c a t i o n of investment. Further, the effectiveness of an a l l o c a t i o n to one sub-region might depend on investments and adjustments i n other sub-regions. A very simple example of t h i s i s the dependence of private investment i n Sukunka River coal mining on public investment i n port f a c i l i t i e s i n other sub-regions. In the Denike model (see r e f . 7 t l ) , the public investment ought to be credited to the sub-region containing the dependent a c t i v i t y . 164 7.3 LINK CHARACTERISTICS OF TRUCK COST SAVINGS The t o t a l cost f o r a 1971 truck moving over a l l the l i n k s of 1952 was $2032j i n 1962, i t was $1854 (91% of the 1952 sum); and i n 1971, i t was $1693 ( 8 3 $ ) . Replacing the Big Bend and Cascade-Rossland routes by the new l i n k s , gives a 1971 sum of $1629 (80$). Some routes have benefitted more than others (see Table XIX). TABLE XIX IMPROVEMENTS IN TRUCK OPERATING COSTS (1971 costs as % of 1952 costs, using new l i n k s ) Complete Route $ Vancouver to F i e l d 70 Vancouver to Crows Nest 84 Cache Creek to Prince George 86 Prince George to Dawson Crk. 78 Prince George to Pr.Rupert 78 Keremeos to Sicamous 83 Cranbrook to Golden 86 Certainly the 401 and Rogers Pass additions to the Trans-Canada Highway have shown up s i g n i f i c a n t l y ; but the other improvements to t h i s route are not so pronounced, because of the increasing density of t r a f f i c absorbing some of the gains. With constant l e v e l s of t r a f f i c flow over the period, savings on t h i s route would have appeared about 5$ greater. S i m i l a r l y , the Okanagan route would have been about 80$ instead of 83$. I t i s obvious from the table that the routes which have had major reconstruction 165 (Nthn. Trans-provincial, John Hart), have shown much greater savings than those undergoing p a r t i a l improvement, (Sthn. Trans-provincial). Figures 1 9 , 2 0 , 2 1 , 22 and 23 set out the quantities provided by the simulation of truck costs. Generally the weighting factors used were s a t i s f a c t o r y , as they gave r e s u l t s from the current, v e r i f i a b l e data which are not contradicted by obervations i n the f i e l d . The generally lower-than-observed speeds (see Table XVII) are perhaps due to the s i m p l i f i e d mechanics of the simulation, which applies the r e s t r a i n i n g factors consecutively to the base speeds (see Appendix I I I ) . More r e a l i s t i c a l l y , there should have been a cut-off l e v e l , where the width factor was not applied when ce r t a i n gradient factors occurred, or where volume factors should not have applied when other factors occurred, and so on. For 1952 costs, the general impression i s that they are too low, probably due to the inadequate data and uncertain map i n t e r p r e t a t i o n f o r that period. Probably road widths were r e a l l y more r e s t r i c t i v e i n 1952 than suggested i n t h i s simulation. Parts of the old road, which are s t i l l to be seen between Cache Creek and Kamlops, i n the Fraser Canyon, and along the North Thompson, suggest that speeds and costs would have been much more seriously affected than was indicated by the map descriptions. (As an example, a doubling of the penalty f o r width r e s t r i c t i o n s would have increased the t o t a l costs by about 2%). Also, had curves been included, and c r i t i c a l gradients more accurately measured, then the costs against the 1952 network would have been r e a l t i v e l y greater. In favour of the simulation, i t can be said that the 166 costs as indicators are s a t i s f a c t o r y , that the same data and factors have been used consistently, and that the r e s u l t s do discriminate between l i n k s of d i f f e r e n t si z e , type and t e r -r a i n . They are perhaps more r e l i a b l e f or comparisons of l i n k s within years, rather than across time periods, because of the d i f f e r i n g q u a l i t y of the data input. For a general i n d i c a t i o n of the r e l a t i v e cost on various l i n k s , the 1971 costs have been divided by distance to give a truck cost per mile average figure, (see F i g . 24). The l i n k s having f e r r i e s or mountain passes show up c l e a r l y as very costly per mile. On mountainous stretches, there i s the combined e f f e c t of increasing lapsed time and f u e l consumption. The averaging of l i n k costs obscures the f a c t that only some sections are severes a f i n e r breakdown of l i n k s would help to i d e n t i f y these sections. That so many average costs f a l l about 40 cents i s not surprising - t h i s cost i s the outcome of a running speed around 40mph., which i s quite consistent with 2 observed speeds i n these conditions. As the average speed increases, the driver cost per mile decreases, but f u e l and repai r costs increase. For example, savings i n time on the 401 and Cariboo Highways o f f s e t the extra running costs at higher speeds. So i f the driver's cost continues to increase f a s t e r than other factor costs, the importance of a high average running speed and the avoidance of congestion w i l l be enhanced. There may be now a need f o r by-passes, p a r t i c u l a r l y around Penticton, and widening between Cranbrook and Kimberley, to reduce costs due to congestion. Whether reduction of running costs i n these areas i s the most b e n e f i c i a l objective, i s a 168 separate question. Because drivers can switch to a mileage rate as they prefer, there i s an extra complication i n the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of over-the-road costs. In the following diagram ( F i g . 2 5 ) , i t i s assumed that drivers w i l l take the higher rate where applicable} also, repairs are set at 120 per mile up to 3 5 m p h . , then become 1 3 0 . There i s no penalty for extra consumption on grades, (though i n r e a l i t y , a truck averaging 20-25mph. i s a l -most c e r t a i n l y consuming more than proportional amounts of f u e l ) . F i g , 25 i- Running Costs f o r Large Truck, at Increasing Speed 20 30 40 50 60mph Sourcei Synthesized from Highway Research Board l i t e r a t u r e c i t e d i n ch. 6 . F i g . 25 shows that increasing speed beyond 40-45mph. provides no immediate savings, except to the driver i n the form of i n -creased l e i s u r e at the same wages. Perhaps also the shippers and receivers benefit from the shorter t r a n s i t time of goods. 169 But the r e a l gain i s i n the increased u t i l i z a t i o n of vehicle and driver, which depends mainly on the supply of cargo and the co-ordination of end-point f a c i l i t i e s . How adjustments might be made w i l l be discussed i n the next chapter. The implications f o r private car users are not e a s i l y d i s c e r n i b l e . The simulation i s not d i r e c t l y relevant to p r i -vate cars, since other factors and a d i f f e r e n t evaluation of time would be required of i t . The influence of grades w i l l be less for cars than for trucks, as w i l l the deviation from free speeds at intersections and curves. As free speed i s approached, the ' f e l t * cost of other t r a f f i c and congestion becomes much more acute. Because f u e l i s a larger component of t o t a l running costs f o r private cars, increasing speeds and consumption may appear more s i g n i f i c a n t . But running cost f o r private cars i s not a greatly important item when weighted against such things as motel and campground charges, meals and i n i t i a l cost of vehicl e . Saving i n accident cost i s something due to the soc-i e t y as a whole rather than being f e l t by any p a r t i c u l a r user. Generally, f o r private cars, the response to road improvement w i l l come more from the sense of comfort, speed, safety, r e l i a -b i l i t y and convenience, rather than from money savings.^ The figures presented so f a r i n t h i s chapter give a very simple, even u n r e a l i s t i c , view of the network. The t o t a l value of a l l l i n k s i n 1971 ($1693) i s f o r the use of each l i n k once by one truck, whereas c e r t a i n l i n k s are i n f a c t used much more frequently than others. So a smaller degree of improve-ment on a v i t a l l i n k , say, Kamloops to Cache Creek, m u l t i p l i e d many times by the degree of use, can supply a larger t o t a l 170 benefit than a greatly improved peripheral l i n k which i s used r e l a t i v e l y infrequently, say, Terrace to Hazelton. Such r e l a -tionships are considered i n the following section. 7 . 4 LINK CHANGES IN A NETWORK CONTEXT Descriptions so f a r r e f e r to the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of l i n k s . I t was shown e a r l i e r that major paths of the network a f f e c t these c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and that network change cansdiffer greatly from l i n k change due to the same investment. There are two aspects of network behaviour which influence the evaluation of a l i n k . One i s i t s frequency of use i n r e a l terms, i t s t r a f f i c flow r e l a t i v e to others*. Savings m u l t i p l i e d by flow gives a f a i r i n d i c a t i o n of a l i n k ' s contribution to current network q u a l i t y . The second aspect i s i t s frequency of occur-rence i n minimum paths between a l l pairs of nodes i n the net-work. This measure shows how p o t e n t i a l l y important or v i t a l the l i n k i s to the whole system. For example, the M e r r i t t to Princeton l i n k i s busier than the Prince George to Chetwynd l i n k , according to t r a f f i c counts} yet the l a t t e r i s more v i t a l i n that i t joins up two sub-systems. I t was noted e a r l i e r i n the chapter that the average saving f o r one truck was about 18%. More accurate figures on truck movements would allow the c a l c u l a t i o n of gross£,savings over the whole network. From the patchy s t a t i s t i c s available, an a r b i t r a r y proportion of 5% has been applied to the summer t r a f f i e counts, to derive an estimate of heavy truck t r a f f i c on the 27 l i n k s which were selected i n Table IX and XVIII as 171 representative of the whole network. One truck over the 27 l i n k s showed a saving of 22%; weighting the l i n k s by the estimated truck t r a f f i c gave a saving of 63% o v e r a l l . The average d a i l y summer saving on the 27 l i n k s was about $47000 -that i s , a saving i n 1971 compared with running the same number of trucks, with the same factor costs, over 1952 sur-faces. The average da i l y summer saving on the whole network (70 l i n k s ) was about $ 7 2 0 0 0 . The Golden-Revelstoke l i n k alone contributed about $ 2 3 0 0 0 , and the 401 freeway and Kelowna Bridge about $4000 each. A conservative estimate of the annual savings to heavy trucks on the i n t e r i o r trunk network i s $ 1 2 -$15 m i l l i o n . 4 Some examples of change i n valued a c c e s s i b i l i t y have been taken from the network to show the importance of major paths. The network was enlarged to make i t more complete, to r e f l e c t more cl o s e l y the l i k e l y use of various routes. The nodes of Edmonton, Jasper, Banff, Calgary, Fort Macleod and Rest-of-Canada were added to the east: the nodes of Rest-of-U.S. and Rest-of-Ameriea were added to the southern i n t e r i o r . The e f f e c t , s t r u c t u r a l l y , was to increase the importance of i n t e r i o r nodes r e l a t i v e to the Vancouver node, and to o f f s e t the e f f e c t of the many nodes from Prince Rupert to Prince George. Finer adjustments could be made with population or t r a f f i c weightings, Costs on the external l i n k s have been estimated, not simulated: t h e i r degree of improvement has been de l i b e r a t e l y exaggerated. Using the expanded network, valued a c c e s s i b i l i t y of the same nodes as appeared i n Table X has been calculated -172 that i s , the cost of reaching a l l other network nodes d i r e c t l y from each of the named nodes. Table XX emphasises the remote-ness of Prince Rupert, and the proximity of Kamloops and Ross-land- T r a i l , to the network as a whole. TABLE XX * SHIMBEL ACCESSIBILITY'* IN 1971 TRUCK COSTS Node 1952 surfaces 1971 surfaces 1971 as % of 1952 Vancouver 14882 11908 8 0 * * Kamloops 10024 7981 8 0 * * Prince Rupert 28263 21140 75 Edmonton 20550 13287 65 Rossland-Trail 12327 9679 78 Fort Maeleod 17447 12074 69 Total (6) 103493 76069 7 3 . 6 * Shimbel a c c e s s i b i l i t y scores are found by adding up the cost of moving from the named node, to a l l other nodes i n the network, using minimum paths. The number of t r i p s i s equal to (n-1) nodes. ** Notei costs for Vancouver and Kamloops would have been about 2% lower had congestion factors which applied i n the l a t e r year, been ignored. These costs are i n d i c a t i v e only - there i s a danger of givi n g too mueh authority to the truck cost estimates by applying them too s p e c i f i c a l l y i n tables and matrices. In chapter 5»5» the importance of the Slocan, Yellow-head and North Thompson l i n k s was pointed out; and F i g . 22 showed the great e f f e c t on costs of the improved Trans-Canada l i n k s east of Almon Arm. Because of t h e i r respective positions r e l a t i v e to these routes, Kamloops and Edmonton have benefited 173 more than Vancouver and Rossland-Trail. That Rossland-Trail and Prince Rupert showed a greater degree of savings o v e r a l l , than Kamloops and Vancouver, i s due to the d i f f e r i n g degree of improvement on l i n k s adjacent to them. A l l of the paths from Vancouver began with the sequence 8 8 - 90 - 91 or 8 8 - 91 - 9 9 i from Kamloops, they were mostly 9 0 -, or 92 - (see Fi g . 2 2 ) . But from Rossland-Trail, the paths began with 8 2 -4 4 , or with 8 8 - . A l l paths from Prince Rupert began with the sequence 7 1 - 7 5 - 8 2 - 8 3 - 8 3 - 7 8 . Improvements i n Alberta were exaggerated, so that paths from Edmonton began with 5 5 - , 7 0 - , or 75-5 and from Fort Macleod, they were 6 7 - , or 8 0 - . Hence there appeared to be a great improvement i n the •cen t r a l i t y * of those two nodes. The point i s , that the de-gree of improvement to the t o t a l network supplied by a l i n k , can depend greatly on the l i n k ' s p o s i t i o n r e l a t i v e to paths i n the system, and on the 'size' of the node i t connects. 7.5 MINIMUM PATHS IN THE NETWORK In order to examine the statement that the gain achieved by an investment depends on where i t i s placed i n the network, i t i s necessary to use the simulated truck costs i n designating minimum paths. R e a l i s t i c estimates are now inser-ted f o r the Alberta l i n k s . There i s no insistence that the calculated paths are going to be followed by each truck, even i f the simulated costs are true. There may be good reasons f o r taking more 'devious* paths, such as avoiding d i f f i c u l t y i n winter conditions, longer routes but fast e r average speed to 174 avoid congestion, part-load delivery or pick-up, and preferred meal or overnight stops. It i s one of the precarious assump-tions i n network measures, that users* paths w i l l be i d e n t i c a l with calculated paths. The c a l c u l a t i o n of minimum paths, a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n -dices and l i n k importance scores, was done by means of a com-puter programme derived from K i s s l i n g ' s work at McGill Univer-s i t y ( 1 9 6 6 ) , and developed by R. Whitaker and K. Denike of the Geography Department at U.B.C. Only a small part of the out-put w i l l be considered i n t h i s t h e s i s . For simpler description of change, 15 nodes out of the 59 used i n the network have been selected to represent the main t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g areas. Table XXI sets out the Shimbel indices f o r each of the selected nodes - that i s , the cost of reaching a l l other 58 nodes by the shortest path. The quantities d i f f e r s l i g h t l y from those i n Table XX because of the adjustments to the l i n k s i n Alberta. Again the centra-l i t y of some nodes (Kamloops, Kelowna, Revelstoke), and the remoteness of others (Prince Rupert, Dawson Creek), are empha-sized. These are p o t e n t i a l figures only, and do not r e f l e c t actual movements between nodes. But even so, t h i s representa-t i o n of the network as a build-up of paths rather than of l i n k s , gives a truer picture of improvement - the average saving i s now Z6fo, as compared with 18% shown by the simple sum of the l i n k s . The repeated counting of some v a s t l y improved l i n k s accounts f o r the larger o v e r a l l gain - such as the Rogers Pass, Kelowna-Penticton, Salmo-Creston, Vernon-South Slocan, and the Yellowhead Highway. Improvement has been spread unequally, 175 TABLE XXI SHIMBEL INDEX SCORES FOR SELECTED NODES Node 1952 1971 % surfaces surfaces 1971 -r 1952 Vancouver 15358 12274 80 Kamloops 11068 8000 72 Kelowna 11056 8386 76 Osoyoos 11419 8908 78 Rossland-Trail 12402 9799 79 Nelson 12496 9739 75 Creston 13883 10390 75 Cranbrook 14382 10260 71 Fort Macleod 17218 12047 70 Calgary 16709 11219 67 Revelstoke 11966 8856 74 Edmonton 19487 13943 72 Dawson Creek 19413 15481 80 Prince George 15394 10717 70 Prince Rupert 28231 20652 73 Total 230932 170671 7 3 . 9 Total, without Yellowhead l i n k : 175814 76 Total, without N. Thompson " : 171675 7 4 . 3 Total, without both these l i n k s : 177470 77 Total, without Slocan Link : 172696 75 mainly because of the proximity of the chosen nodes to some of these l i n k s , p a r t i c u l a r l y Calgary and Prince George. This same phenomenon was noted i n connection with Table XX, i n the pre-vious section. I t can be noted from Table XXI that the Yellowhead l i n k has been more 'important' s t r u c t u r a l l y than the North Thomp-son. This i s due to the number of nodes west of Prince George 176 which would use paths along t h i s l i n k into Alberta, Rest-of-Canada, and even into the East Kootenays. The North Thompson i s one of three or four a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r t r a f f i c from B.C. nodes to Edmonton and Jasper, The strong e f f e c t of the provision of the Vernon to South Slocan l i n k i s also shown up i n the table. The importance of l i n k s can be indicated by t h e i r f r e -quency of occurrence i n these p o t e n t i a l minimum paths? frequency i s here a measure of structure, not of actual usage, and i s very much dependent on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of nodes about the network. For example, the Cascade-Grand Forks l i n k scores high because i t joins one c l u s t e r of nodes (Okanagan) with another c l u s t e r (West Kootenays), The changes i n l i n k importance scores are set out i n Table XXII. In both years, the two l i n k s north and east of Cache Creek were the most important s t r u c t u r a l l y . TABLE XXII LINK OCCURRENCE IN ALL PATHS (Number of times a l i n k appears i n a l l the minimum paths between a l l p a i r s of nodes) Link 1952 1971 NT. 1971, without. NT..Y. Y. s. Cache Cr.-Clin$on 559 434 462 578 580 434 Cache Cr.-Kamloops 535 418 427 562 564 418 Kamloops-Salmon Arm 247 193 175 322 278 199 Revelstoke-Golden 253 198 228 353 283 211 Penticton-Kelowna 427 222 217 218 222 357 Osoyoos-Kaleden 512 179 173 173 179 314 Keremeos-Kaleden 149 29 30 31 29 29 Cascade-Grand Forks 423 187 190 190 187 314 Nelson-Lake-Creston 305 0 0 0 0 b Kimberley-Wasa Jn. 157 34 34 34 34 34 Wasa Jn.-Radium Jn. 159 263 274 246 235 278 Tete Jaune-Jasper 58 199 184 58 63 201 Richter Pass 0 102 102 102 102 102 Yellowhead (Y) 0 176 184 0 0 176 Slocan (S) 0 150 145 172 177 0 Creston-Salmo 0 212 223 241 230 205 North Thompson (NT) Hudson's Hope 0 73 0 0 83 71 0 82 82 82 82 82 177 The re-routing of p o t e n t i a l t r a f f i c i s now shown to have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on nodes and l i n k s f a r removed from the l i n k a c t u a l l y determining the adjustments. The interde-pendence of investment a l l o c a t i o n s becomes obvious: or, as W i l l s (1971) put i t , they are "shocks to the whole system". According to the 1952 network, ' t r a f f i c ' from Prince George to the East Kootenays came down through the Okanagan and then along the Southern Trans-provincial Highway. By 1 9 7 1 , t h i s was directed down the Yellowhead, through Alberta, and south through Radium. This adjustment, plus the Slocan l i n k , have greatly reduced pressure on the Okanagan and No. 3 highways. The North Thompson has diverted some ' t r a f f i c ' which would have used the Trans-Ganada Highway. The Yellowhead i s again shown as having had a greater s t r u c t u r a l e f f e c t than the North Thomp-son. I t would serve paths between those nodes west of Prince George, and those south of Banff and as f a r west as Golden and Creston; whereas the North Thompson has only three nodes to the east, some of which are reached through Banff and Calgary. For the same reason, the North Thompson l i n k occurs i n fewer paths than the Hudson's Hope l i n k , which supports a l l the ' t r a f f i c ' which would move between Fort Nelson - Fort St.John and a l l the nodes west of Creston. The great e f f e c t of the Slocan l i n k on p o t e n t i a l t r a f f i c i s due to the f a c t that i t l i n k s up large sub-systems of the network. The investment i n t h i s l i n k , o r i g i n a l l y to help i n hydro-electric development, may well pay o f f i n the long run by d i v e r t i n g t r a f f i c from other l i n k s where recon-st r u c t i o n and expansion would prove rather c o s t l y . S i m i l a r l y , 178 the Salmo-Creston l i n k has become a very important part of the whole system, and has taken the pressure o f f Kootenay Lake f e r r i e s (see Table XXIII). TABLE XXIII DIVERSION OF TRAFFIC FROM KOOTENAY LAKE FERRY (after 1964 opening of Salmo-Creston l i n k ) Year Total Vehicles on f e r r y $ Maintenance, a l l f e r r i e s i n Nelson-Creston d i s t r i c t 1962-3 186000 369000 I 9 6 3 - 4 141000 341000 1964-5 890OO 289000 Source: Annual Reports, Minister of Highways, V i c t o r i a , B.C. The description of s t r u c t u r a l change has referr e d to po t e n t i a l t r a f f i c only. I t i s obvious that there has been a large degree of integration of the network, from the reductions i n the number of l i n k s required to get from node to node. But to put these changes i n a truer l i g h t , the 14 most important • l i n k s ' of the network i n 1971 have been rated according to t h e i r 1971 summer t r a f f i c flow, (see Table XXIV). , Table XXIV shows that only i n the Okanagan and along the Trans-Canada east of Cache Creek do s t r u c t u r a l paths and l i n k importance measures correspond to any marked degree with the r e a l use as measured by summer t r a f f i c flows. As was men-tioned i n chapter 5» i n considering Burton's use (1962) of s t r u c t u r a l measures to i d e n t i f y important l i n k s i n the highway system of Northern Ontario, the l i n k frequency measure can be a deceptive indicator, at the mercy of a p a r t i c u l a r d i s t r i b u -t i o n and s e l e c t i o n of nodes and l i n k s . However, i t gives a 179 TABLE XXIV RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LINK OCCURRENCE AND ACTUAL TRAFFIC Link Occurrence T r a f f i c as % of busiest l i n k , 1971 Traffie,1971 Rank Range Rank Link CacheC-Pr.Geo. 1 434-358 418 31-20 1 Van.-Hope CacheC.-Kaml. 2 47 2 Pent,-Kelowna Pr.G.-Hzelt. 3 364-220 17-8 3 Lytt.-Cache C. Kami.-Vernon 4 297 19 4 Kaled.-Pentic. Radium-Wasa. 5 263 20 \ 5 Hope-Lytt. Kaled.-Vernon 6 246-216 67-40 6 Sica.-Revel. Yahk-Cranbrook 7 230 18 6 Cache-Kami. Sicam.-Revelst. 8 224 51 8 Kaml.-S. Arm Cranb.-Wasa(95) 9 221 17 8 Revel.-Golden Osoy.-Cascade 10 2 1 5 -187 15 10 Kelowna-Vernon Salmo-Crest. 11 212 10 11 Princet,-Kerem. Yahk-Crest. 12 211 20 12 Gold.-Banff Revel.-Golden 13 198 40 13 S.Arm-Sica. Kami.-S.Arm 14 193 40 14 Cache-Clint. useful description of po t e n t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n about the network, which provides a d i f f e r e n t perspective than that offered by current t r a f f i c counts. For example, t r a f f i c counts at present would appear not to ' j u s t i f y * the huge investment that went into the Yellowhead l i n k ; but the l i n k importance measures show i t s v i t a l r o l e i n terms of structure and p o t e n t i a l t r a f f i c . 7.6 THE CHAPTER REVIEWED This chapter has condensed a l o t of generated data to a series of maps and tables. Description of the actual data has 180 been del i b e r a t e l y kept to a minimum, for two reasons. The output of the simulation should not be used as i f i t i s d e f i -n i t i v e , since there i s some doubt about the route descriptions, p a r t i c u l a r l y of the base year ( 1 9 5 2 ) . But also, the main i n -tention of the chapter was to use those i n d i c a t i v e costs to explore some measures and perspectives provided by the network context. Link investments can not be rated simply by t h e i r t o t a l cost, or cost per mile. There i s great v a r i a b i l i t y i n the r e l a t i o n s h i p between d o l l a r s spent, f a c i l i t i e s bought, and immediate gain achieved. F i g . 23 gave an i n t e r e s t i n g view of cost per unit of gain on each l i n k ; but the 'costs* would be very much a l t e r e d i f the degree of use were added into the cal c u l a t i o n s . Nor should the l i n k c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s be considered for themselves alone. Some extra user costs or savings on a p a r t i c u l a r l i n k might be due to changes occurring elsewhere. There i s an interdependence of investments i n terms of paths and of adjustments over time. There i s an interdependence of t r a f f i c routing, as was shown by the output of the minimum path cal c u l a t i o n s . A point-to-point evaluation of a l i n k misunderstands i t s r e a l contribution to a network. The sum of l i n k savings showed an improvement of only 2 2 $ ; when adjusted to take account of t r a f f i c flow, the same l i n k s showed a saving of 6 3 $ . The network i s r e a l l y a build-up of paths rather than a b u i l d -up of l i n k s . Links valued by t h e i r current use gave a good in d i c a -181 t i o n of r e a l improvement i n the network. Yet the counting of l i n k s ' occurrence i n possible paths of the network provided an i n d i c a t i o n of potential gain. I t showed how v i t a l a l i n k i s to the whole system. This measure has to be taken together with a flow measure, for the two w i l l r a r e l y correspond. The former i s subject to the se l e c t i o n and s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of nodes and l i n k s i the l a t t e r i s subject to the current arrangement and 'si z e ' of t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g areas. They would correspond only i f a l l nodes were of equal t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g capacity, and i f a l l minimum paths were the same as the actual paths of users. The reduction i n the o v e r a l l t o t a l of l i n k s i n a l l p o t e n t i a l paths showed that the network has become more int e -grated over the period. S t r u c t u r a l l y , the Yellowhead and Slocan l i n k s have contributed most towards t h i s . The unequal gains i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y f o r some nodes show that the a b i l i t y of t r a f f i c to take advantage of some va s t l y improved routes varies from place to place. In other words, the contribution made by an improved l i n k to the t o t a l network qu a l i t y depends every much on i t s p o s i t i o n r e l a t i v e to through paths and r e l a t i v e to t r a f f i c - g e n e r a t i n g areas. Some well-used through routes were seen to have had larger gains than others, because of the favourable sequence of improved l i n k s . Removal of some l i n k s from the actual network has shown t h e i r r e l a t i v e contributions to network structure and qualit y , and the 'shocks' which they have passed on to other l i n k s . 182 A reasonable estimate of the o v e r a l l gain i n heavy-truck running costs was provided from the simulation and summer t r a f f i c counts. Some suggestions of the reactions of users to changed running costs were offered. These w i l l be examined more c l o s e l y i n the next chapter, and a corroborating estimate of improvement w i l l be approached from another angle. 183 REFERENCES s 1 This was done i n a model-building study of investment a l l o c a t i o n , applied to B.C., i n K. Denike, The Role of Trans-portation Investment i n Economic Development"! ( 1 9 7 2 ) . 2 See Table XVIII? also Wagner and May ( i 9 6 0 ) . Starkie ( I 9 6 9 ) , p. 6 3 , reported that a 1965 survey of a busy freeway i n U.K. discovered a t y p i c a l running speed of 40mph. f o r large trucks. 3 Winfrey and Zellner, NCHRP Report no. 1 2 2 , 1 9 7 1 , c h . 6 . 4 Two gross assumptions are made herej f i r s t l y , that there were no competing modes i n 1 9 5 2 * For example, the use of tra i n s to by-pass the costly Big Bend route i s del i b e r a t e l y ignored i n forming t h i s estimate. Also, i t i s assumed that weight and size r e s t r i c t i o n s were the same then as now. CHAPTER 8 THE VITAL CONCERNs USE OF TIME AND COST SAVINGS It i s a b e l i e f central to investment i n road f a c i l i -t i e s that users* savings i n time, accident costs, running costs, equipment, and so on, w i l l generally bring greater e f f i c i e n c y i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n function, and r e l a t i v e l y lower costs f o r producers, shippers and consumers. In chapter 5, t h i s connec-t i o n was asserted i n a too general way. The manner i n which cost savings work through truck operations to the economy i s very indeterminate. One needs to regard the equipment, degree of u t i l i z a t i o n , f i x e d overhead costs, variable overhead costs, running costs, driver cost, depreciation, competition, f l e e t operation, cargo supply and so on, as working parts of a mecha-nism that determines revenues, t o t a l costs, p r o f i t a b i l i t y and t a r i f f s . An exhaustive treatment of trucking operations takes one into the f i e l d of business management, an i n d i c a t i o n that the major problems are i n the 'overheads' rather than i n 'over-the-road' costs. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , one needs to take Fleischer's method ( 1 9 6 2 ) , of p u l l i n g apart the operations of just one firm. The highway research l i t e r a t u r e has confined i t s e l f to over-the-road costs, to i d e n t i f y which costs are affected by road con-diti o n s and to what degree. 1 184 185 Taking the simplest case of an owner-operator, a breakdown of costs can be made, as was done i n p. 13-14 of the journal, "Truck Canada", May, 1972. Using a $30000 truck and t r a i l e r , the f i x e d costs ( r e g i s t r a t i o n , insurance, i n t e r e s t , depreciation and bookkeeping) are about $10000 per year. A reasonable salary, 'paid* to himself, i s $12000; and $1500 (5$) i s a reasonable return on h i s investment. These target figures a f f e c t the desired revenue mileage to be covered i n a year, on top of which i s mileage covered while empty. In the 1964 survey by S t a t i s t i c s Canada, the empty proportion was about 35$. To cover 50000 revenue miles per year - which i s reasonable i n the l i g h t of the 1964 survey findings and the expected l i f e of vehicles - the t o t a l mileage w i l l be about 77000, with t o t a l costs (including f u e l , repairs and tyres) about $38900. So the contracts which he enters into must pay about $0.78 per mile. Assuming an average payload of 20 tons, the desired ton-mile revenue i s 3-9 cents, which l i e s within the range discovered by the survey. The example above pretends that no terminal, pick-up or delivery costs are borne by the owner-operator. The e f f e c t of repaving surfaces, as used i n the simulation i n Chapter 6, was a reduction i n repairs from 130 to 120. By i t s e l f , t h i s means only a 0.2 cent reduction i n the desired contract price of t h i s operator. Increased speed over better surfaces would reduce per mile cost of a l l items. Neither of these changes f o r paved roads was well brought out by the simulation, because of the generality of description of road surfaces. 186 The $0.?8 per mile revenue i s an average f i g u r e . Really, the operator requires a much higher reward on 'head-haul* contracts because of the necessity of under-cutting t a r i f f s to get any *back-haul' contracts. The pattern of fr e i g h t movements i n B.C. makes f o r very keen back-haul compe-t i t i o n . Figure 26 shows the d i s p a r i t y i n flows. F i g . 26 - Freight Movements i n B.C. 1970 $ Revenues Tons REST OF B.C. < < < 3 . 7 m . < Sourcet S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 53-224$ For Hire Trucking Survey, 1 9 7 0 . Revenues from outward t r a f f i c from Vancouver are 2§- times those from inward t r a f f i c , whereas tons of f r e i g h t are only If- times greater. The les s e r revenue per ton f o r the inward f r e i g h t (average $ 7 . 5 5 as against $12.68) i s due to the nature of com-modities, and to under-cutting of t a r i f f charges. The f r e i g h t outward from Vancouver contains a larger proportion of end 187 products ($25 per ton revenue) and general merchandise ($38 per ton): whereas the inward f r e i g h t has a large proportion of food products ($10 per ton), crude materials ($4) and fab-r i c a t e d materials at $11 per ton. In general, most truck shipments originate i n the Lower Mainland; much of the produce of the In t e r i o r , p a r t i c u -l a r l y f o r est and mineral products, i s served by railways. Specialized operations - such as r e f r i g e r a t e d t r a i l e r s out of the Lower Mainland or Prince Rupert, or new ear d i s t r i b u t i o n , or householders' removal - are severely affected by the lack of back-haul f r e i g h t . So if_ the owner-operator referr e d to e a r l i e r can capture more f r e i g h t , and reduce the empty propor-t i o n to, say, 2 0 $ , then the required average contract price i s reduced to $ 0 . 6 3 per mile. Such an improvement due to r a t i o n a l i z a t i o n i s perhaps the major intention of f l e e t - and -warehouse operations. Not only are pick-up and delivery costs f o r the operator reduced for them, but also the organization of f u l l loads and the o p t i -misation of space-weight r e l a t i o n s h i p s become possible. Reduc-tions i n waiting time and over-the-road time, together, can allow the f l e e t operator to achieve greater revenue mileage from l e s s equipment, thereby reducing h i s overhead f i x e d costs. He might further avoid some of these costs i f he uses leased equipment to cover periods of increased a c t i v i t y or to handle loads with p a r t i c u l a r handling or t r a i l i n g requirements. Where does the e f f e c t of improved roads come in? I f the road improvement allows the owner-operator to increase his speed from 31 to 35mph. , he w i l l be able to cover 86000 miles 188 per year, working the same hours as before, and getting f r e i g h t as and when he i s a v a i l a b l e . At 35% empty, his revenue mileage becomes 56000$ and a f t e r adding the extra f u e l and r e p a i r costs, his desired contract price becomes $ 0 . 7 4 per mile. The f l e e t operator using employed drivers, may not be able to take f u l l advantage of the time savings, since h i s drivers w i l l switch to the mileage rate of pay above 32mph.» the operators* gain w i l l then be i n the u t i l i z a t i o n of equipment. If he has 10 vehicles and i s able to adjust h i s services to the improved running speeds, then he w i l l be able to cover the same mileage with 9 vehicles only. So he avoids the extra deprecia-tio n , i n t e r e s t , r e g i s t r a t i o n , insurance and d r i v e r cost of the 1 0 t h . truck. With the same degree of u t i l i z a t i o n (65%) , h i s contract price could become $ 0 . 7 0 . He i s then able to invest the c a p i t a l formerly due to the tenth truck i n warehouse, adver-t i s i n g or l o c a l delivery operations, which w i l l increase and s t a b i l i z e h i s f r e i g h t supply. For a larger f l e e t operator, the picture becomes more complex - there are scale economies available to c e r t a i n aspects of the operation, but increasing overheads may occur as w e l l . Economies w i l l probably appear i n the purchasing of f u e l and equipment, financing, repair and maintenance f a c i l i t i e s , ware-housing, scheduling, co-ordination of types of equipment and f l e x i b i l i t y of service. Increasing costs w i l l probably appear i n advertising, b i l l i n g , intra-urban c o l l e c t i o n and delivery, and t o t a l space requirements. This second group of costs might eventually r e s u l t i n a higher degree of use of road and terminal equipment and s t a f f , by capturing a greater volume and more 189 regular supply of f r e i g h t f o r both directions of each t r i p . I f an increase i n speed from 31 to 35mph. allows a reduction i n the contract price from $ 0 . 7 8 to $ 0 . 7 0 , then i t i s possible to make a very general estimate of what t h i s means to the economy as a whole. The S t a t i s t i c s Canada survey of 1970 provided information on tons ca r r i e d and ton-miles covered by »for h i r e ' trucks only. Table XXV summarizes the information relevant to B.C. TABLE XXV FOR-HIRE TRUCKS, FREIGHT MOVEMENTS - B.C. 1970 Direction Tons (m)* Miles each ton carried Cost per ton per t r i p Cost per ton per t r i p Per ton savings Annual savings $ m i l l . B.C. to every-where and from everywhere. 18 .5 264 1 0 . 3 0 9.24 1 . 0 6 19 .6 Vancouver, to everywhere and from every-where 1 1 . 0 320 12.48 1 1 . 2 0 1.28 14 . 1 Vancouver, to r r e s t of B.C. and from r e s t of B.C. 9 . 3 127 4 . 9 5 4 . 4 5 0 . 5 0 4 . 7 ^same, with 15 ton average payload. 6 . 6 0 5 . 9 3 0 . 6 7 6 . 2 * m = m i l l i o n s ** at 31 mph., 780 per mile, and 20 ton payload *** at 35 mph., 700 per mile, and 20 ton payload Sourcest S t a t i s t i c s Canada, For Hire Trucking Survey. 1970. Savings figures derived from simulation i n ch . 6 of t h i s t h e s i s . The high average distances f o r the f i r s t two directions i n Table XXV r e f l e c t the long hauls to and from the P r a i r i e 190 provinces and Ontario p a r t i c u l a r l y . Consequently, the possible savings due to fas t e r speeds appear much greater than those for the f r e i g h t moving within B.C. only. Also, the cost per ton per t r i p of f r e i g h t within B.C. i s r e l a t i v e l y low, most l i k e l y because of the nature of the goods. Perhaps also the average payload of 20 tons i s too high f o r t r i p s within B.C.j the apparent savings become larger i f each t r i p i s said to carry only 15 tons. The estimates i n the f i n a l column of Table XXV com-plement and support those made i n section 4 of chapter 7 . The present estimates are f o r a given change of speed only, by f o r -hire trucks only. Many l i n k s have provided increases of at lea s t 4 or 5mph. i n the l a s t decade; almost a l l of them have provided such increases since 1 9 5 2 . As well, there have been s i g n i f i c a n t reductions i n re p a i r and tyre costs, and i n the u t l i z a t i o n of equipment. I t i s quite l i k e l y then that the estimate of annual savings of $15 m i l l i o n i s reasonable, even conservative - that i s , the difference of operating these par-t i c u l a r 1971 vehicles at 1971 costs and with the 1971 industry-structure, over 1952 surfaces. REFERENCESj 1 Most of the analysis of trucking operations depends on the study of Fleischer ( 1 9 6 2 ) , and on Adkins et a l . ( 1 9 6 7 ) . 2 Cost figures are taken from the "Truck Canada" a r t i c l e c i t e d , and from the S t a t i s t i c s Canada survey, ( 1 9 7 Q ) . CHAPTER 9 CONCLUSIONS 9.1 THE APPROACH The desire to examine the pattern of investment arose from a d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n with the • c l a s s i c ' network ana-lyses, which c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y r e l a t e d change i n some measure of transport or of s p a t i a l arrangements to change i n some economic in d i c e s . Whatever measures were used, only i n a few cases was there an attempt to describe the d i r e c t i o n of the rel a t i o n s h i p . In the r e a l world, adjustments i n the r e l a t i o n -ship pass through a determining medium, here generalized as the 'investment decision'. The 'decision' includes aspects of s o c i a l objectives, o f f i c i a l p o l i c y , l o c a l concerns, finan-cing, co-operating aut h o r i t i e s , and the timing and order of projects. Over a long period, a pattern and deviations within i t were discernible as outcomes of the investment decision. Concentrating on the investment decision and i t s outcome i n e v i t a b l y disposes one to f i n d cases of four kinds -those which lead a c t i v i t y into new areas 5 those which l a g i n that they connect up already developed areas; those which are required to a s s i s t i n other development projects; and those which r e l i e v e congestion around developed areas. This l a s t 191 192 kind might be considered as leading or lagging economic a c t i -v i t y , depending on the timing of measurement of changes: congestion might 'force' the provision of better f a c i l i t i e s , which might i n turn a s s i s t further economic growth. The issue of timing has not been adequately considred i n the ' c l a s s i c * analyses, but i t i s one of the virtues of the investment deci-sion approach that i t brings t h i s issue into the open. Such an approach shows investment i n transportation as a p o s i t i v e instrument i n planning. Sometimes i t s role has been over-rated, but i t s l i m i t e d effectiveness has been more c l e a r l y recognized i n the l a s t decade. Investment i n f a c i l i -t i e s can confer r e l a t i v e advantage on some areas or some a c t i -v i t i e s , as indicated by the d i f f e r e n t i a l savings i n truck operating costs over the l i n k s of the B.C. network. The absence or delay of apparently necessary investment might be sometimes regarded p o s i t i v e l y as well, i f the objective i s reduction of urban growth or equalization of opportunity. Some l a t e r studies i n network analysis, notably those of K i s s l i n g and 0'Sullivan, have related types of economic a c t i v i t y to d i f f e r e n t aspects of a c c e s s i b i l i t y , i n recognition of the f a c t that d i f f e r e n t transport f a c i l i t i e s can serve d i f -ferent purposes at d i f f e r e n t times. Observation of the pattern and type of investment throws l i g h t on these changing purposes-such as pioneer, r e l i e f , feeder, t o u r i s t or through-route. Such inferences can be made with only a s u p e r f i c i a l analysis of eco-nomic a c t i v i t i e s i n affected areas. This approach brings l e s s defined measurement of the transport/economy r e l a t i o n s h i p , but a broader understanding. 193 An important consideration for planning purposes, which comes out of the observation of investment, i s the r e l a t i o n s h i p of gains i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y to the costs of achie-ving them. There i s extreme v a r i a t i o n within t h i s r e l a t i o n -ship. I t i s an important factor i n understanding the apparent transport/economy in t e r a c t i o n ; but also, f o r questions of s o c i a l j u s t i c e , since the investment i s usually 'public', the users 'private', and the a c t i v i t i e s being measured by the eco-nomic indices usually also 'private*. The response to invest-ment and changed a c c e s s i b i l i t y has been quite thoroughly researched: the incidence and disposal of benefit could well do with more attention. Cost-benefit analysis has been much c r i t i c i z e d f o r i t s p a r t i a l i t y , or the i n a b i l i t y to incorporate a l l the r e a l -world changes into i t s neat equations. This thesis does not attempt to d e f l e c t any of those c r i t i c i s m s . I t was acknowledged i n the f i r s t chapter that the changes observed here were to be only a samll part of the r e a l changes. The 'costs* were only those reported by the Department of Highways, and excluded such things as spending by m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , the opportunity or i n t e -r e s t costs of investment, or r e l a t e d costs borne by other public or private a u t h o r i t i e s . The 'transport system' ignored other competing or complementary modes. The measure of benefit was d e l i b e r a t e l y kept narrow and simple, to show the degree of immediate improvement offered by changed f a c i l i t i e s . The use of such improvement i s the c r u c i a l issue i n development planning. I t i s extremely d i f f i c u l t to trace the gains through the users and dependent-users to t h e i r emergence 194 as a tangible economic e f f e c t , as opposed to describing what happened here and what followed there. I t i s inevitable that there are very disparate economic responses to apparently s i m i l a r changes i n f a c i l i t i e s : the intervening factors, such as the range of markets and the transport needs of a c t i v i t i e s , were set out i n the f i r s t chapter. The thesis goes through the necessary f i r s t step, of showing how the changes i n f a c i -l i t i e s were achieved, and has shown a small part of the poten-t i a l f o r response, i n the form of truck operating costs. The f i n a l defence of t h i s p a r t i c u l a r approach, of focussing on how and where investment was made, i s that i t provides a better understanding of the formation, functions and purposes of l i n k s and networks, as opposed to the s t a t i c summary of the transport/economy r e l a t i o n s h i p . The former helps i n t e r p r e t a t i o n and h i s t o r i c a l treatment? the l a t t e r helps precise measurement and p r e d i c t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p . 9 . 2 THE PATTERN OBSERVED The pattern of investment i n B.C. roads i s i n e v i t -ably guided strongly by user-demand. Current users experience the d i f f i c u l t i e s of bad surfaces, delays, hazards and so on, and usually express t h e i r f e e l i n g s with a large degree of unanimity. The authorities are not passive, however: t h e i r speed and degree of response to that demand can sometimes be a regulating factor i n economic a c t i v i t y , as i n the case of the t h i r d crossing of Burrard I n l e t . That t r a f f i c flows often increase sharply a f t e r new f a c i l i t i e s are supplied, can obscure whether the government role i s a p o s i t i v e or permissive one. 195 Policy decisions, taken i n a national, p r o v i n c i a l or regional context, have also influenced the pattern of i n -vestment. I t has been said that i n B.C. the government has given an exceptionally po s i t i v e r o l e to the transport f a c t o r i n economic development. Whether t h i s has been stronger than i n other s o c i e t i e s developing t h e i r transport in f r a s t r u c t u r e , would have to be tested by some sort of comparative r a t i o of •leading investment* to ' t o t a l investment*, the d i f f i c u l t y being i n quantit a t i v e l y defining and i d e n t i f y i n g the former. 'Leading' investments may be taken as those which provide exceptionally high q u a l i t y f a c i l i t i e s to a p a r t i c u l a r area or route, r e l a t i v e to the r e s t of the system; which pro-vide capacity 'well i n excess* of current l e v e l s of use or of expected t r a f f i c generated from favoured nodes; which r e - d i r e c t t r a f f i c from e x i s t i n g routes; which immediately and substan-t i a l l y reduce costs of movement to or within c e r t a i n areas; which open up new areas; or which cater f o r some l e s s measure-able objectives such as national defence, regional integration or support of other projects. Within those broad terms, there were many large i n -vestments i n B.C. that could be considered 'leading'-the North Thompson and Yellowhead Highways, improvements and user-cost reductions on the Northern Trans-provincial from Prince Rupert, parts of the Trans-Canada Highway when f i r s t b u i l t , the Vernon-South Slocan l i n k , the C h i l c o t i n Highway west from Williams Lake, the 3B route north-west from Rossland, roads to various mines and m i l l s (such as at Cassiar, Highland Valley, Prince George or Mackenzie), the roads f o r hydro-electric development 1 9 6 north and south of Revelstoke and around Hudson's Hope, and the roads to B a r k e r v i l l e , Garibaldi, and Buttle Lake. This i s not an exhaustive l i s t s the problem with o f f e r i n g these suggestions i s that the purpose of routes may have changed over the period. For example, the o r i g i n a l Hope-Princeton route could be regarded as an investment f o r integration, the kind of investment whose r e a l worth cannot be f u l l y measured i n economic terms; current adjustments to that route can be regarded as forced by user demand, i . e . 'lagging'. Apart from being characterized as leading or lagging some measure of demand, investments can be described i n terms of e s p e c i a l l y serving a process of development. In the B.C. case, such processes were basic connection, external connec-tion, pioneering, i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n , integration, r e l i e f of t r a f f i c pressure, and improvement of d r i v i n g conditions. Such processes are not exclusive, but there i s some l o g i c a l basis, and some evidence from B.C., that they e x i s t i n sequence. Roads considered to be serving p a r t i c u l a r processes were i d e n t i f i e d i n e a r l i e r chapters. The general trend from basic connec-t i o n to i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n , r e l i e f and improvement was shown up by the r e l a t i v e amounts spent i n the trunk and branch systems. Some interdependence of the amounts was described i n ch. 4. However, there i s only a very weak necessity and even l e s s con-stancy i n the relat i o n s h i p , and i t was made le s s v i s i b l e by the shape, size and content of the reporting units . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between maintenance costs and con-st r u c t i o n costs was examined i n the l i g h t of two hypotheses -that spending on maintenance can be an:.instrument of p o l i c i e s 197 other than s a t i s f y i n g users* standards or expectations? and that the respective l e v e l s of spending are interdependent and substitutahle to some degree. The pattern of spending showed many eases to support the l a t t e r statement. But i t dismissed the former statement, since the d i s t r i b u t i o n of maintenance spending appears to be t i e d to l e v e l s of use and to increasing l e v e l s of service. The highest per mile costs of maintenance occurred i n busy, v i t a l sections of road, p a r t l y due to patrols, and p a r t l y due to more expensive patching and resurfacing. The emphasis on safety, speed and r e l i a b i l i t y forces up maintenance costs, usually i n the more built-up areas experiencing the most expensive provision of f a c i l i t i e s . A recurring element i n the pattern of investment was the large, i n d i v i s i b l e investment needed to bridge a r i v e r or breach a pass. Such a s i t u a t i o n i n road-building prevents the authorities from gradual expansion of improvement (as would seem to be possible i n the p r a i r i e and plains regions) whereby spending and benefit can be seen to progress close together. Another recurring sight was the peaking of spending around e l e c t i o n years. This brought a cost to the province i n the form of i n f l a t e d contract p r i c e s . Another form of s o c i a l or p o l i t i c a l manoevering that brings a cost to the province, i s the greater use of day-labour crews where contract work might i n f a c t be less costly per mile. For example, day-labour crews employed by the Department of Highways did a l l but the surfa-cing of the Kelowna-Rock Greek road through South Okanagan and Boundary-Similkameen d i s t r i c t s , whereas the t o t a l size of the project (about $4m.) might have j u s t i f i e d a contract job. The 198 use of road; spending i n the pursuit of other welfare objec-t i v e s i s , of course, a legitimate one, but i t i s often ignored i n the narrow treatment of cost-benefit analyses. There were many indications of the c y c l i c a l nature of spending, the momentum being regulated mainly by l e v e l s of t r a f f i c . In the l a s t few years, the cycle has come around again to an emphasis on the r e l i e f of t r a f f i c congestion, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the Lower Mainland. Generally, the inter-urban l i n k s else-where have been able to cope so f a r with the increased annual t r a f f i c flows. For most of them, capacity i s approached only on a few occasions i n the summer months, presenting a d i f f i c u l t r e c o n c i l i a t i o n of large f i x e d investments and protracted under-u t i l i z a t i o n of capacity. T r a f f i c flow does not give the f u l l measure of the dependence of areas on p a r t i c u l a r l i n k s . Much depends on the a v a i l a b i l i t y of other modes and on the extent and nature of a c t i v i t i e s * demand for transportation. T r a f f i c flow may be a f a i r i n d i c a t o r of the importance of the Agassiz-Haig section of the Lougheed Highway, but could not convey the importance of the Stewart-Cassiar l i n k , the Alberni-Tofino l i n k , or the Yellowhead Highway. Roads which *make things possible* require a d i f f e r e n t treatment to that provided by the t r a d i t i o n a l cost-benefit a n a l y s i s . 'With and without* measurement i s c e r t a i n l y preferable to 'before and a f t e r ' measurement i n such cases, but would s t i l l not take i n the f u l l e f f e c t s of i n i t i a l road access. Further research into these e f f e c t s may be useful, i f only to supply a more d e f i n i t e but q u a l i t a t i v e scale of response to i n i t i a l access. 199 The attempt at characterizing the p a t t e r n o f spen-ding by a mathematical description was suggestive but not successful. I t seems that population, external connection and amount of through path mileage account f o r much of the v a r i a t i o n i n d i s t r i c t s * t o t a l s , but are not r e l i a b l e i n d i c a t o r s . Where larger populations 'would have* forced up the t o t a l s , a s i g n i -f i c a n t part of road provision was hidden i n spending by and through the mu n i c i p a l i t i e s . The seasonal differences i n road use suggest that the population f a c t o r overestimates the spen-ding required i n the I n t e r i o r d i s t r i c t s , f o r two reasons: many a c t i v i t i e s i n the Int e r i o r do not r e l y greatly on road access; and many of the roads are r e l a t i v e l y un-used, i n terms of actual t r a f f i c numbers, f o r 7 or 8 months of the year. The seasonal range of t r a f f i c flows w i l l continue to present d i f f i c u l t choices f o r the aut h o r i t i e s , concerning the qual i t y of f a c i l i t i e s and the standards of maintenance. 9.3 THE MEASUREMENT OF IMPROVEMENT One of the most important findings of the analysis was the varying •importance* of l i n k s depending on the perspec-t i v e used. In budget terms, those which require the biggest t o t a l investment w i l l be held up as most important - such as the Yellowhead, Rogers Pass, or Port Mann Bridge. A d i f f e r e n t scale w i l l emerge i f costs per mile are used, and again a very d i f f e r e n t scale i f truck cost savings per unit of spending are used. Varying significance i s attached to a l i n k , depending on the perspective taken - the l i n k per se, the l i n k i n terms 200 of current flow, or the l i n k i n terms of minimum paths and p o t e n t i a l flows. The implications f o r planners are serious -si m i l a r amounts of spending buy very d i f f e r e n t amounts of improvement} and the contribution of a p a r t i c u l a r l i n k im-provement to the t o t a l network q u a l i t y i s highly v a r i a b l e . Therefore, the timing of improvement and benefit becomes c r i -t i c a l . T r a f f i c might b u i l d up quite suddenly, and consume a l l of the 'benefit' i n a short time. R e l a t i v e l y large savings fo r low l e v e l s of t r a f f i c might appear extravagant, yet they might help re-locate a c t i v i t i e s , rather than simply i n t e n s i f y use of current a c t i v i t i e s , and i n the long run reduce the t o t a l s o c i a l cost of movement. The truck eosts were used i n a number of ways to demonstrate the variable meaning of improvement. For one vehi-cle using each of the l i n k s , the savings over 1952 were 2 2 $ ; f o r a s e l e c t i o n of nodes evaluated i n terms of Shimbel acces-s i b i l i t y scores, the average savings was 26%; and f o r a repre-sentative sample of l i n k s weighted by t h e i r actual flow, i t was 6 3 $ . The Shimbel indices showed how d i f f e r e n t gains occurred f o r d i f f e r e n t places, according to the degree of change on adjacent l i n k s . The l i n k importance measure showed the interdependence of routes, and the consequent interdependence of investments. Pressure might b u i l d up elsewhere because of investment i n a p a r t i c u l a r area. The l i n k experiencing most congestion or highest operating costs, need not be the one where remedial investment i s applied. Both the s t r u c t u r a l and the valued-link measures supported the contention that the B.C. road network has become much more integrated, e s p e c i a l l y since 1 9 6 2 . 201 No matter how the improvement i s measured, there remains a very d i f f i c u l t problem i n tr a c i n g i t s u t i l i z a t i o n . Interpretation of private users* response to the improved roads has been almost completely avoided i n t h i s t h e s i s . I t i s obvious though, that the B.C. s i t u a t i o n needs to be examined i n the l i g h t of commuters' and t o u r i s t s ' response to better roads, since much of the investment i s now directed towards those two groups. Even l i m i t i n g one's f i e l d to trucks allows only a 'guess' at the degree of response. There are two l e v e l s of response - the trucking industry as a whole, and i n d i v i d u a l firms or operators. Gray (1969) looked at the f i r s t l e v e l , concentrating mainly on regulation-and competition; F l e i s c h e r (1962) looked at the second l e v e l . A useful study would com-bine the two perspectives, r e l a t i n g the response to road investment. Most of the network studies i n Geography have looked at the response amongst a c t i v i t i e s , r e l a t i v e l y few have observed the road users, where the i n i t i a l response and short-term adjust-ments occur. Two estimates of savings were made i n t h i s thesis, the one working up from t r a f f i c counts, and the other working back from a survey of f r e i g h t movements. A number of hypotheti-c a l situations involving a truck operator were presented, to show the i n i t i a l and possible adjustment to road improvements. Given the data, i t i s possible to trace through the adjust-ments? which leads to the d i f f i c u l t stage of whether or how savings w i l l be made available to shippers, producers and con-sumers, and whether or how they w i l l make adjustments. 202 Geographers have tended to assume away the mechanisms by which improved surfaces and networks a f f e c t a c c e s s i b i l i t y , and by which t h i s i n turn a f f e c t s the adjustment of a c t i v i t i e s . One obvious example has been the rather d e f e r e n t i a l treatment of the deterrent or f r i c t i o n component of the gravity model. Planners, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n foreign-aid type projects, have often f a i l e d to take into account the mix and maturity of a c t i v i t i e s , and t h e i r r e a l transport needs. Tracing over-the-road savings through truck operators and private users to shippers and pro-ducers might well provide an understanding of the d i v e r s i t y of transport needs. So no apology i s made f o r taking t h i s study through the researches of the highway engineering and highway economy f i e l d s , i n order to understand better how s p a t i a l re-arrangements may occur. From such research as to the use of p o t e n t i a l gains, i t might be possible to arrive at some measure of transportation needs fo r a d i s t r i c t , as attempted rather sketchily i n c h . 3 , taking into account the devious re l a t i o n s h i p s of investment, improvement and use. The e s s e n t i a l decisions on 'needs' w i l l remain p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l ones. That provision of f a c i l i t i e s promotes use and, eventually, 'needs', has been shown i n many sit u a t i o n s . As the cycle i n B.C. has moved round i n recent years to the costly r e l i e f of congestion i n urban or near-urban areas, one wonders how f a r the demand for mobility and access w i l l be met, before the deliberate reactions of increased central den-s i t i e s , dispersed o f f i c e and r e t a i l and manufacturing functions or use of a l t e r n a t i v e transport systems w i l l occur to reduce or diffuse demand. Integration of the network increases faster:;* than general economic development, but costs i n urban areas have been increasing at an even f a s t e r rate, and t h i s may i n -h i b i t the authorities* attempts to give a po s i t i v e d i r e c t i o n to economic and s o c i a l development through the investment i n roads. BIBLIOGRAPHY AND APPENDICES BIBLIOGRAPHY SOURCES s B r i t i s h Columbia. Report of the Commission of Inquiry into  Road-user Charges. V i c t o r i a , 1959. 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Jones. 30TH PEAK HOUR TREND. Highway Research Record, no. 2 7 . 1 9 6 3 . p. 1-13. Claffey P. Time and Fuel Consumption f o r Highway User Benefit  Studies^ H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 2 7 6 . I960. Claffey P. Characteristics of Passenger Car Travel on T o l l Roads and Comparable Free Roads. H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 3 0 6 . 1961. p.1 - 2 2 . Dawson R. Vehicle Operating Costs i n I 9 6 2 . T r a f f i c Engineering and Control, v. 4, no. 9 . London. Jan. I 9 6 3 . Fleischer G. The Economic U t i l i s a t i o n of Commercial Vehicle  Time Saved as the Result of Highway Improvement. Publication no. 3 . Project on Engineering-Economic Planning. Stanford U. I 9 6 2 . Friedlander A. The Interstate Highway System. North Holland plublishing^ Amsterdam. 1965. Glaze C. and van Meighen G. Vehicle Operating Cost Survey. H.R.B. Procs. v. 3 6 . 1 9 5 7 . p. 51-63. Gwynn D. Truck Equivalency. T r a f f i c Quarterly, v. 2 2 . A p r i l 1 9 6 8 . p. 2 5 3 - 3 6 . H a l l J., Sawhill R., Matteson J . User Benefits i n Economic  Analysis of Metropolitan FreewayConstruction. Hway. Res. Record, v. 314. 1 9 7 0 , p. 32-40. Highway Research Board. Factors and Trends i n Tr i p Lengths. NCHRP Report no. 48. 1968. Wash. D.C. Kent M. Fuel and Time Consumption Rates f o r Trucks i n Freight  Service. H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 2 7 6 . I960, p. 1-19. 217 Koppelman F. A Model f o r Highway Needs Evaluation. Hway. Res. Record, no. 314. 1970. p. 1 2 3 - 3 4 . Lang A. and Robbins D. A New Technique f o r Predicting Vehicle  Operating Costs. H.R.B. B u l l e t i n no. 308, 1962. p.19-35. Lawton L. Evaluating Highway Improvements on a Mileage and  Time Cost Basis. T r a f f i c Quarterly, v. 4 , no.l, 1 9 5 0 . p. 102-3. Loutzenheimer D. Resume of AASHO Report. H.R.B. Special Report no. 5b. 1 9 5 9 . p. 36-42. P h i l l i p s J . The S e n s i t i v i t y of Vehicle Fuel Consumption Costs  to Road Improvements. 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Quantification of Road User Savings., f o r World Bank S t a f f Occasional Papers no. 2 . Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore. 1 9 6 6 . Winfrey R. Research on Motor Vehicle Performance Related to  Analyses f o r Transportation Economy. H.R.B. Abstracts, v. 33 no. 1 2 . Dec. 1963. and Hway Res. Record, no. 7 7 . 1 9 6 3 . p. 1-18. Winfrey R. Economic Analysis f o r Highways. International Text-book Co. Scranton. P h i l a . 1969. Wolfe R. A Tentative Procedure f o r Estimating Recreational Highway T r a f f i c . T r a f f i c Quarterly, v. 2 3 . no. 1 . Jan. 1969. p. 1 0 5 - 2 1 . 219 APPENDIX I CHANGES IN ELECTORAL DISTRICTS SINCE 19^6 Vancouver-Point Grey was subdivided i n 1966 into s i x d i s t r i c t s * Point Grey, South, Centre, L i t t l e Mountain, East, Burrard. Burnaby was subdivided i n 1966 into three d i s t r i c t s * Edmonds, Willingdon, North. Delta was subdivided i n 1966 into four d i s t r i c t s * Delta, Richmond, Surrey, Langley. Dewdney l o s t i t s western sector to Coquitlam i n 1 9 6 6 . North Vancouver was subdivided, i n 1966* Capilano, Seymour, and West Vancouver - Howe Sound which included the southern section of the former L i l l o o e t d i s t r i c t . Nanaimo l o s t some of the islands to an extended Saanich and The Islands. The adjustment to Nanaimo also entailed some adjustment to Cowichan - Newcastle, whose name was then changed to Cowichan - Malahat. L i l l o o e t l o s t i t s southern sector to West Vancouver - Howe Sound i n I 9 6 6 ,and i t s remainder was merged i n with Yale - which was extended to the east, - to become Y a l e - L i l l o o e t . Similkameen l o s t some of i t s western t e r r i t o r y to Y a l e - L i l l o o e t i n I 9 6 6 , and was then joined with Grand Forks - Greenwood to become Boundary - Similkameen. Fernie and Cranbrook were combined i n I 9 6 6 to become Kootenay. Kaslo-Slocan was joined with the former Revelstoke to become Revelstoke-Slocan. Revelstoke l o s t some t e r r i t o r y to the former Salmon Arm, which then became Shuswap. The adjust-ment to form Shuswap also involved some a l t e r a t i o n to North Okanagan*s northern boundary. Peace River was s p l i t a f t e r 1956 into North and South d i v i s i o n s . 220 APPENDIX II THE TRUNK ROADS AS USED IN THIS THESIS Vancouver Islands V i c t o r i a to Swartz Bay: from V i c t o r i a , the No. 1 Highway north to Nanaimo; the road from P a r k s v i l l e to A l b e r n i ; the Island Highway from Nanaimo to Kelsey Bay. Lower Mainland; Squamish to Horseshoe Bay; the Trans-Canada from Horseshoe Bay east to Hope, and north and east to the A l b e r t a border; Marine Drive from Horseshoe Bay to the C i ty, u n t i l replaced by the Upper Levels Highway; No. 1 from Vancouver, along Kingsway, across Patullo Bridge and eastwards, u n t i l replaced by No. 401; Hastings-Barnet thoroughfare and Lougheed Highway east to Haig; No. 499 from Vancouver south to U.S. border; Ladner Perry u n t i l replaced by Deas Tunnel; No. 17 to Tswawassen Terminal; Ladner Trunk Road east to Langley; No. 99 from Surrey to U.S. border; No. 13 from Aldergrove towards Bellingham; Abbotsford - Mission No. 11; and Agassiz to Rosedale. Southern I n t e r i o r ; Southern Trans-provincial No. 3» including a l l sections of 3A and 3B; Rossland - Paterson, the o r i g i n a l Rossland to Cascade u n t i l replaced; T r a i l to Waneta; Remac to Nelway; Yahk to Kingsgate; Creston to P o r t h i l l ; Elko to Roosville; Princeton - M e r r i t t -Kamloops and - Spences Bridge; the Okanagan Highway from Keremeos and Osoyoos north to Sicamous, Salmon Arm and Monte Cree; Cranbrook - Kimberley and north, and Cran-brook - Fort Steele and north; the South Slocan to Vernon l i n k (though included as part of branch development i n terms of the spending on hydro-electric p r o j e c t s ) . Northern I n t e r i o r : Kamloops - Tete Jaune Cache - Prince George. Hope - Lytton - Cache Creek - Prince George; Prince George to Chetwynd and Dawson Creek and v i a Hudson's Hope to Fort St. John; from Tupper to Dawson Creek and north to Fort Nelson; from Prince George west to Prince Rupert and Kitimat. APPENDIX I I I CONTENT AND METHODS OF THE SIMULATION OF TRUCK COSTS* I d e n t i f y l i n k . I d e n t i f y m i l e s (D) of s u r f a c e s , P paved and G g r a v e l . I d e n t i f y m i l e s o f l e g a l l y r e s t r i c t e d speeds ( L ) . I d e n t i f y widths f o r v a r i o u s s e c t i o n s , convert to f a c t o r s (W) as i n Table XI. Count up t o t a l r i s e and f a l l i n f e e t from 100* contour maps, d i v i d e by l i n k d i s t a n c e , to get average r i s e and f a l l ; c o nvert t o f a c t o r s f o r speed (H) and f o r f u e l consump-t i o n (N) a c c o r d i n g to Table X I I . Take t r a f f i c f l ow from p u b l i s h e d counts, convert to f a c t o r s (V) a c c o r d i n g to Table X I I I . Add i n any f e r r y delays (Y). Set base speeds a t 50mph. f o r P, and 38mph. f o r G. STEPS: 1. T o t a l D - l e g a l D = (Dp + Dg) 2. L e g a l D -J- 20mph. = time over l e g a l D. 3. 50 x Wp «= speed over paved s e c t i o n s , a l l o w i n g f o r W. 4. 38 x Wg = speed over g r a v e l s e c t i o n s , a l l o w i n g f o r W, 5. step 3 x H = speed over paved, a l l o w i n g f o r W and H. 6. step 4 x H = speed over g r a v e l , a l l o w i n g f o r W and H. 7. step 5 x V = speed over paved, a l l o w i n g f o r W, H and V. 8. step 6 x V = speed over g r a v e l , a l l o w i n g f o r W, H and V. 9. s t e p 7 x Dp = time over paved s e c t i o n s . 10. step 8 x Dg = time over g r a v e l s e c t i o n s . 11. sum steps 2, 9, and 10 = l i n k time. 12. l i n k time -J- D = average running speed. 13. F i n d consumption a t t h i s speed, see Table XIV. 14. Add e x t r a grade f a c t o r to consumption (Table XIV) to get average consumption. 15. t o t a l D x average consumption = f u e l consumed. 16. f u e l consumed x $0.40 = f u e l c o s t on l i n k . 17. step 11 + Y = t o t a l l i n k time. 18. l i n k time x $7.50 per hour = d r i v e r and t r u c k c o s t on l i n k . 19. (Dp + l e g a l D) x paved r e p a i r c o s t s = r e p a i r c o s t on paved. 20. Dg x g r a v e l r e p a i r c o s t = r e p a i r c o s t on g r a v e l s e c t i o n s . 21. sum steps 16, 18, 19, 20 = t o t a l l i n k c o s t . Computer Programme put t o g e t h e r by L a r r y Meyer, Dept. of Geography, U.B.C. 

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