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Investigation of the relationship between cultural values and citizen opinions on growth of Greater Vancouver Oliver, Anita Louise 1973

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c 1 AN INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CULTURAL VALUES AND CITIZEN OPINIONS ON GROWTH OF GREATER VANCOUVER by ANITA LOUISE OLIVER B.A. , Simon Fraser U n i v e r s i t y , 1970 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the School of Community and Regional Planning We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA APRIL, 1973 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f or reference and study. I f u r t h e r agree that permission f o r extensive copying of t h i s thesis f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s representatives. I t i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my wr i t t e n permission. School of Community and Regional Planning The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada i i ABSTRACT The work undertaken i n t h i s thesis was f o r the purpose of examining the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t ' s conclusion that c i t i z e n s are against f u r t h e r growth of the region. Growth i n terms of population increase, urban expansion, and economic pr o d u c t i v i t y has always been highly valued by North Americans, and i t was f e l t that genuine r e j e c t i o n of the growth ethic would imply an important s h i f t i n the goal preferences of the s o c i e t y . A r e d i r e c t i o n of the growth ethic was discussed i n r e l a t i o n to the s t r u c t u r a l changes that are becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y prevalent i n our s o c i e t y , which some observers i n t e r p r e t as the emergence of a post-i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y . It was emphasized that successful adjustment of the s o c i e t y to the conditions of p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l i s m i s to a large extent dependent upon the adoption of new, more appropriate c u l t u r a l values to replace those which have evolved to s u i t the needs of an i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y . In order to de-emphasize continuing growth as a major goal of the so c i e t y , i t was suggested that those c u l t u r a l values which support the growth ethic must f i r s t be modified. S p e c i f i c a l l y , i t was hypothesized that those i n d i v i d u a l s who are i n favor of continued growth w i l l have more t r a d i t i o n a l values than those who are not i n favor of continued growth. Three value o r i e n t a t i o n s were chosen as examples of the kind of a t t i t u d e s which are r e l a t e d to d i s p o s i t i o n to favor or i i i r e j e c t growth. A questionnaire was devised to determine perceptions of and opinions on four aspects of growth, and to a s c e r t a i n value preferences on the three dimensions defined. I t was administered i n person to 159 Vancouver residents. Indices of growth o r i e n t a t i o n and scales which aggregated the value preferences were constructed from the raw data. C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s were obtained to determine i f there i s a consistent r e l a t i o n s h i p between an i n d i v i d u a l ' s values and h i s opinion on growth. A s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p was shown to e x i s t , from which i t was concluded that the hypothesis was supported. The i m p l i c a t i o n of these findings i s that s h i f t s i n the goal preferences of the society r e s t upon attendant s h i f t s i n the supportive value structure. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES . . v i i Chapter One PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH 1 A. Introduction to the Problem 1 B. Hypothesis 2 C. Scope of the Study . 5 Chapter Two THE GROWTH ETHIC OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY . . . 6 A. Roots of the Growth E t h i c . . . . . . 7 B. Problems Associated with the Growth E t h i c . 10 C. Redirection of the Growth E t h i c . . . . 12 Chapt er Three THE EMERGENCE OF A POST-INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY . 14 A. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a P o s t - I n d u s t r i a l Society 14 B. The Role of Value Change i n the T r a n s i t i o n to Post-Industrialism . . . 21 Chapter Four METHODOLOGY 24 A. C l a r i f i c a t i o n of the Value Orientations . . 24 B. Op e r a t i o n a l i z i n g the Hypothesis . . . . 26 V Page C. The Questionnaire 31 D. S e l e c t i o n of the Sample 34 E. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the Sample 35 F. Preparation of the Data f o r Analysis . . . 37 G. S t a t i s t i c a l Analysis 40 H. Pre-Test 41 Chapter Fi v e RESULTS I: CITIZEN PERCEPTION OF AND OPINIONS ON GROWTH 43 A. Comments on Perception of Growth . . . 43 B. Comments on Opinions on Growth 46 C. Relationship Between Opinions on Growth ~ ' 48 D. I n t e r p r e t a t i o n of Opinions on Growth . . . 49 Chapter Six RESULTS I I : HYPOTHESIS VERIFICATION 53 A. Results 53 B. Discussion of Results 56 C. Content V a l i d i t y of the Value Scales . . . 59 D. Demographic C o r r e l a t i o n s 61 Chapter Seven REFINEMENT OF THE MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUE . . . . 63 -v i Page Chapter Eight CONCLUSION . . . 67 A. Overview of Results 67 B. Implications f o r Planning 69 FOOTNOTES . 73 BIBLIOGRAPHY 77 APPENDICES . . . . . . 79 A. Changes i n Emphasis of S o c i a l Patterns i n the T r a n s i t i o n to Post-Industrialism . . 81 B. The Questionnaire 83 C. Location of Respondents by Address and by Map . . . 89 D. Scale Assignment of A t t i t u d e Statements 92 E. Content V a l i d i t y of A t t i t u d e Statements 94 F. A t t i t u d e Statements Deleted . 102 LIST OF TABLES Table Page V. l Summary of Perceptions and Opinions on Growth 45 2 Growth Sector C o r r e l a t i o n s 49 VI. 1 C o e f f i c i e n t s of Co r r e l a t i o n s Between Value Scores and'Growth Scores 53 2 Percentage Overlap Between Growth Biases and Value Orientations 55 3 Demographic Cor r e l a t i o n s 61 VII. l Core A t t i t u d e Statements f o r Improved Value Scales 65 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Most of a l l , sincere appreciation must be expressed to Dr. William Rees f o r the time and e f f o r t which he spent helping me write t h i s t h e s i s . A lso, I wish to thank Dr. John C o l l i n s and Dr. Craig Davis f o r t h e i r w i l l i n g n e s s to contribute t t h i s work. And, f i n a l l y , t h i s work was made much more enjoyable by the assistance and i n t e r e s t shown by Michael Becker and Bo Martin. CHAPTER ONE PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH A. Introduction to the Problem The question addressed i n t h i s thesis i s , are c i t i z e n s ' "no-growth" opinions associated with a s h i f t i n the c u l t u r a l values of the society? The i n i t i a l i n t e r e s t i n t h i s topic stemmed from the find i n g s of a public p a r t i c i p a t i o n program (the Li v a b l e Region Program) which has been c a r r i e d out over the past year by the Planning Department of the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t . This study concluded, from t a l k i n g to several hundred residents of Greater Vancouver about goals f o r the future of the region, that there are strong f e e l i n g s of "no more growth" prevalent i n the general p u b l i c . The basis f o r the f e e l i n g that no-growth opinions are of p a r t i c u l a r s i g n i f i c a n c e i s that growth has always been an important goal of North American society, and r e j e c t i o n of continued growth suggests that perhaps other goals are coming to be of more importance. For example, a greater emphasis on q u a l i t a t i v e rather than q u a n t i t a t i v e and e f f i c i e n c y aspects of urban l i f e might be associated with a tendency to favor no-growth goals. The p o s s i b i l i t y that continuation of present rates of growth f o r an i n d e f i n i t e period could lead to serious problems of resource depletion, p o l l u t i o n , and i n a b i l i t y to adjust to the rapid change rate, suggests 2 that the question of whether or not to pursue f u r t h e r growth i s , indeed, a relevant one. I t i s of value to understand as well as possible the c u l t u r a l roots of the growth e t h i c , so that t h i s can be taken into account when assessing the a c c e p t a b i l i t y of a l t e r n a t e growth s t r a t e g i e s . It i s most important that we become aware of the c u l t u r a l context i n which adoption of p o l i c i e s to manage growth w i l l be undertaken. B, Hypothesis Speculation as to the meaning of contemporary no-growth opinions l e d to the suggestion that, i n order to be genuine, no-growth opinions should be a r e f l e c t i o n of more fundamental changes of outlook. This has implications f or any future attempt to de-emphasize growth as an * important goal of the society. The contention of t h i s work i s that we w i l l not be able to slow down or r e d i r e c t growth to any appreciable extent u n t i l the values which support the growth ethic are f i r s t modified. Further, i t i s suggested that the relevant values are considerably broader than the simple a f f i r m a t i o n that "growth i s good"; that the values encouraging growth extend to perceptions and a t t i t u d e s beyond those immediately associated with ph y s i c a l and economic growth. This contention can be formalized i n a hypothesis as follows: I t i s hypothesized that those i n d i v i d u a l s who are i n favor of continued growth w i l l have more t r a d i t i o n a l values than those who are not i n favor of continued growth. Chapter Two discusses why t h i s might be d e s i r a b l e . 3 Two important c l a r i f i c a t i o n s of terminology should be made, concerning the usage of the term "growth" and the meaning of " t r a d i t i o n a l values". F i r s t l y , f o r purposes of t e s t i n g the hypothesis, the ambiguous nature of the term "growth" was reduced somewhat by separating growth a c t i v i t i e s into four d i s t i n c t components: population growth, p h y s i c a l growth ( i n e f f e c t , growth of the b u i l t - u p area), growth of economic a c t i v i t y , and increase i n the amount of material goods which we consume domestically. I t i s a n t i c i p a t e d that the hypothesis w i l l be most v a l i d with reference to economic growth. Secondly, i t i s necessary to explain what the relevant values supporting the growth e t h i c were defined to be. Three value o r i e n t a -t i o n s which influence a t t i t u d e to growth were defined. They are not ne c e s s a r i l y the most important influences, and they're c e r t a i n l y not the only ones; they were selected on the basi s that each of them represents an i n t e r e s t i n g s o c i a l (and philo s o p h i c a l ) dilemma of the times, and i t i s the purpose of t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n to demonstrate that desi r e f o r continued growth i s rooted i n basic premises, such as these, on the nature of man and the goals of human existence. At t h i s stage of the t h e s i s , the relevant value o r i e n t a t i o n s w i l l be expressed i n the form of value neutral questions. How the value o r i e n t a t i o n s w i l l be op e r t a t i o n a l i z e d , and t h e i r reformulation i n terms of a t r a d i t i o n a l -progressive dimension, w i l l be dealt with i n Chapter Four. I Our notion of human progress: do we view progress p r i m a r i l y i n terms of technological advancement, or i n terms of 4 s o c i a l betterment? II How we view man i n h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p to nature: to what extent are we w i l l i n g to exploit the p h y s i c a l environment fo r human purposes or, conversely, what values do we place upon maintenance of the p h y s i c a l environment i n i t s n a t u r a l state? I I I Our preference f o r material goods: are a l l commodities de s i r a b l e and necessary, or should we do without a l o t of them? The key v a r i a b l e s i n the t e s t i n g of the hypothesis w i l l be the four growth components and the three value o r i e n t a t i o n s . The research undertaken f o r t h i s work w i l l attempt to f i n d out i f the hypothesized r e l a t i o n s h i p between these v a r i a b l e s a c t u a l l y e x i s t s . In addition, the research w i l l address the following questions: are contemporary c i t i z e n s ' no-growth f e e l i n g s d i r e c t e d e x c l u s i v e l y toward population and p h y s i c a l growth, as represented by r e j e c t i o n of f u r t h e r urbanization? What are c i t i z e n a t t i t u d e s toward continued expansion of i n d u s t r i a l and commercial enterprises, and toward increase i n the rate of material goods consumption? And, more b a s i c a l l y , do c i t i z e n s i n f a c t perceive that growth i s taking place i n each of the four component sectors? Explanation of the research technique employed to answer these questions, and to test the hypothesis, w i l l be preceded by two chapters which 5 discuss the h i s t o r i c a l and t h e o r e t i c a l aspects of the growth e t h i c , i n order to f u r t h e r develop the context f o r i n t e r e s t i n the topic and formulation of the hypothesis. C. Scope of the Study It should be stated at the outset that t h i s work i s concerned with the anti-growth f e e l i n g s of c i t i z e n s , and not with the economic state of no-growth. The bias which w i l l be apparent throughout t h i s t h e s i s i s that present rates of growth ( i n terms of a l l four components) cannot, and should not, continue forever; and that expectation of, and desire f o r , i n d e f i n i t e continuation of growth i s inappropriate to emerging s o c i a l and environmental r e a l i t i e s . For t h i s reason, then, concern here i s with the c u l t u r a l motivation f o r the growth we are experiencing at present, and the conditions under which t h i s motivation might be lessened or r e d i r e c t e d , rather than with the more t e c h n i c a l question of the economic implications of a no-growth state. I t i s believed that the input of c i t i z e n s to the decision-making process i s becoming of greater importance, and that, therefore, p u b l i c support f o r s olutions to the problem of continuing growth ( i f , indeed, i t i s accepted that t h i s i s a problem) i s e s s e n t i a l . The change i n c u l t u r a l values required to obtain t h i s support i s of i n t e r e s t i n t h i s work. CHAPTER TWO •THE GROWTH ETHIC OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY The question of whether we need more growth and, e s p e c i a l l y , whether more growth i s d e s i r a b l e , has become a s a l i e n t one i n recent years. The basis for concern about population growth i s f a i r l y obvious, on a world scale at l e a s t . The r e a l i t y of food shortage and, i n many parts of the world, lack of s u f f i c i e n t l i v i n g space as w e l l , have convinced most people that natural l i m i t s to the p r o l i f e r a t i o n of human numbers do e x i s t . L i m i t a t i o n s to economic growth are not nearly so w e l l recognized or accepted, however. The expectation of continued economic growth p e r s i s t s among a majority of North America s population. The p r a c t i c e of extrapolating past performance and rates of increase into the future encourages the b e l i e f that economic p r o d u c t i v i t y can, and should, become even greater than at present. On the surface, there don't appear to be too many reasons to doubt that high l e v e l production of material goods can continue i n d e f i n i t e l y . Technology i s constantly upgrading the productive capacity of most enterprises, and there i s a widespread b e l i e f that the problems r e s u l t i n g from in t e n s i v e use of the earth's resources can be solved by yet f u r t h e r a p p l i c a t i o n of technology This discussion w i l l be l i m i t e d to North American context. 7 1 ** i n a remedial capacity. A. Development of the Growth Ethic 2 The h i s t o r i c a l roots of our "growthmania" are no doubt deep. The p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r material betterment have seemed v i r t u a l l y endless since the time of the i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n , and throughout the i n d u s t r i a l era expansion of economic a c t i v i t i e s has been equated with progress. I t i s l i k e l y that the i d e o l o g i c a l roots of t h i s d r i v i n g force are contained i n the development dynamic of the Protestant E t h i c . According to the 3 i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of Max Weber, ma t e r i a l prosperity, which symbolized s p i r i t u a l prosperity i n the early days of c a p i t a l i s m , had to be s t r i v e n f o r unceasingly; i t could be attained only by sustained motivations of achievement, a c q u i s i t i o n , and upward mo b i l i t y . Not to prosper became a sign of wickedness. These values supported the developing entre-preneurial part of the s o c i e t y , whose welfare (prosperity) had become of c e n t r a l importance.. This doctrine has evolved through the centuries so that today the r e l i g i o u s b a s i s f o r growth and p r o d u c t i v i t y has a l l but disappeared. The equation of material wealth with progress, however, i s s t i l l a very r e a l one i n the i n d u s t r i a l f o l k l o r e of North American society. Materialism has become, i n the words of one observer, "the credo of American l i f e " , with "more" and "better" the guiding symbols 4 i n that quest. It i s easy to appreciate the r e a l p h y s i c a l needs toward the Footnotes are used to c i t e the source of information, and the references may be found following the text. 8 s a t i s f a c t i o n of which mechanical production was f i r s t d i r e c t e d . Existence f o r the majority of people has no doubt been both prolonged and enhanced by the i n i t i a l b e n e f i t s which technology was capable of bestowing. D i f f i c u l t i e s o r i g i n a t e d where the aroused momentum of the i n d u s t r i a l machine began to be di r e c t e d towards production of goods which are not, s t r i c t l y speaking, necessary. Many of these may be considered u s e f u l , but at some point a d d i t i o n a l goods become superfluous, and the want f o r them must be manufactured along with the product."* I t i s evident that today a large proportion of our economic p r o d u c t i v i t y — o r at l e a s t the increase i n t h i s p r o d u c t i v i t y — c o n s i s t s of the l a t t e r c l a s s of goods, which represent t r i v i a l rather than basic needs. The assumption of i n f i n i t e wants, or the "postulate of nonsatiety" as the mathematical economists c a l l i t , ^ i s the basis f o r a l o t of economic theory. "Economic man" i s supposed to know h i s needs and to know also how to s a t i s f y them; t h i s i s presumed to be a matter of personal freedom, regulated only by the market.^ That the c o l l e c t i v e consequences of such i n d i v i d u a l decisions might be a matter f o r concern i s seldom r e a l i z e d . In s p i t e of the apparent redundancy of continuing e f f o r t s to maxi-mize both the stock and the flow of wealth, there are numerous pressures to maintain t h i s s i t u a t i o n . As mentioned, the growth ideology i t s e l f i s a powerful force: even when a man as consumer stands to ben e f i t only marginally ( i f at a l l ) from f u r t h e r goods production, he w i l l nonetheless support t h i s goal i f he believes that t h i s i s the way progress i s made. From the other d i r e c t i o n , very r e a l and s u b s t a n t i a l monetary ben e f i t s accrue to those who, through a d v e r t i s i n g , b u i l t - i n obsolescence and 9 minor product innovations, are encouraging maximization of the flow of goods. This constitutes a s u b s t a n t i a l pressure f o r the encouragement of growth as a d e s i r a b l e end i n i t s e l f . A d d i t i o n a l pressures are applied as well from the negative aspects of non-growth: i f economic growth was to h a l t or slow down s i g n i f i c a n t l y , two c l o s e l y r e l a t e d problems inherent i n the present s t r u c t u r e of our g economic and s o c i a l system would have to be faced. F i r s t , growth i s necessary to maintain f u l l employment. Only i f i t i s p o s s i b l e f o r nearly everyone to have a job can the income-through-jobsethic of d i s t r i b u t i o n remain workable. Second, growth takes the edge off of d i s t r i b u t i o n a l c o n f l i c t s — i f everyone's absolute share of income i s increasing, there i s l e s s of a tendency to f i g h t over r e l a t i v e shares, e s p e c i a l l y since such f i g h t s may i n t e r f e r e with growth and even lead to a lower absolute share f o r a l l . These problems can only be kept at bay while growth i s taking place and, unfortunately, the r e a l i z a t i o n of t h i s has only reinforced the development of expedient p o l i c i e s which emphasize growth as the s o l u t i o n , rather than facing the underlying d i s t r i b u t i o n issues squarely. Perhaps the most unfortunate aspect of growthmania i s the f e e l i n g of i n e v i t a b i l i t y which accompanies i t . Reisman recognized as long ago as 1958 that "the b e l i e f that one cannot stop inventions, cannot stop technological progress, has i t s e l f become a t r a d i t i o n , indeed a form 9 of r e a l i s t i c i n s a n i t y " . We tend to take for granted the notion that growth i n population, material assets, and gross natio n a l product i s i n e v i t a b l e , i n s p i t e of the frequent recognition that i t i s not always 10 d e s i r a b l e . The growth dynamic tends to supercede other values we possess, and once growth as such becomes a value, every development can be seen e i t h e r as growth or as the necessary p r i c e of growth. 1^ B. Problems Associated With the Growth E t h i c Continuation of the kind of economic growth that we have today may be l o g i c a l l y absurd, even morally re p u l s i v e , but arguments against growth can be made on a more concrete basis than t h i s . Fundamental concern i s being expressed ever more v o c a l l y these days f o r the environmental e f f e c t s of growth and r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s . 1 1 B a s i c a l l y , the problem stems from the sequence of a c t i v i t i e s which economic production e n t a i l s : since matter and energy cannot be created, production inputs must be taken from the environment, which leads eventually to depletion. Since matter and energy cannot be destroyed, an equal amount of matter and energy i n the form of waste must be returned to the environment, leading to p o l l u t i o n . Completion of the c y c l e through r e c y c l i n g of i n d u s t r i a l output i s not a widespread p r a c t i c e . Higher rates of production r e s u l t i n higher rates of throughput. The l i m i t s regarding what rates of depletion and p o l l u t i o n are t o l e r a b l e are not p r e c i s e l y known—except that they cannot be i n f i n i t e . Whatever l i m i t s e x i s t are set by e c o l o g i c a l thresholds which, i f exceeded, w i l l cause 12 a breakdown of the system. This i s , of course, an o v e r s i m p l i f i c a t i o n , but the fa c t that the l i f e chain does operate according to such r u l e s and r e l a t i o n s h i p s stands i n stark c o n t r a d i c t i o n to our i m p l i c i t assumption that the earth's bounty i s l i m i t l e s s . 11 Just p r e c i s e l y what the l i m i t s are i s a matter of considerable debate today. L i m i t a t i o n s to the capacity of the p h y s i c a l environment 13 can be recognized i n f i v e separate areas. The relevant areas are: population, p o l l u t i o n , n a t u r a l resources, a g r i c u l t u r a l production and 14 i n d u s t r i a l production. The Club of Rome group has attempted a simulation model of the world i n terms of these f i v e f a c t o r s . They have experimentally set various l i m i t s to the capacity of each of these f a c t o r s . The conclude that, given the exponential nature of present growth, no matter what the exact l i m i t s to a v a i l a b l e resources and carrying capacity are i n r e a l i t y , they w i l l be exceeded within the next few decades i f present consumption p r a c t i c e s continue. In other words, growth cannot continue forever. ^ "^  In a d d i t i o n to environmental problems associated with continued economci growth, some w r i t e r s have recognized l e s s tangible s i d e - e f f e c t s of growth and materialism, i n r e l a t i o n to the kind of s o c i e t y we have become. We have, f o r example, come to define "progress" and " c i v i l i z a t i o n " i n terms of material and technological achievement. By i t s e l f , t h i s may appear to be j u s t i f i a b l e i n a c e r t a i n sense; but the consequence of t h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of progress i s that other aspects of human endeavour have become l e s s important. As Dubos put i t , "gentle behaviour, humane laws, l i m i t a t i o n s of war, a high l e v e l of purpose and conduct have been forgotten i n the bargain."*"^ This i s akin to the d i s t i n c t i o n often made between qua n t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e aspects of human endeavour. Fromm extends the suggestion that over-emphasis on material growth and consumption discourages more 12 meaningful and productive experiences: i n our cu l t u r e "consumption i s e s s e n t i a l l y the s a t i s f a c t i o n of a r t i f i c i a l l y stimulated phantasies / s i c / . . . a performance alienated from our concrete, r e a l selves."^ He concludes that e c o l o g i c a l balance, and h e a l t h f u l balance between production and consumption i n i n d i v i d u a l l i v e s , may be congruent needs. There i s another aspect to the problems associated with economic growth i n the developed nations, that i s one of e t h i c s . North America and European nations are consuming and p o l l u t i n g at l e v e l s f a r exceeding those of the underdeveloped nations of the world. On a per c a p i t a basis we consume considerably more food(in terms of p r o t e i n p a r t i c u l a r l y ) , more energy, and more natural resources than non-western peoples. This i s a serious d i s t r i b u t i o n problem i n a moral sense, and at the p o l i t i c a l l e v e l i t i s bound to become even more of an issue as awareness of these discrepancies spreads. If i t were simply a question of producing and otherwise making a v a i l a b l e to the r e s t of the world the advantages which we enjoy, the s o l u t i o n would not be so d i f f i c u l t ; but i t i s doubtful that enough resources are now, or ever w i l l be, a v a i l a b l e to provide the r e s t of the world with a standard of l i v i n g which approaches our own. C. Redirection of the Growth Et h i c If the p o s s i b i l i t y of continuing to f i g h t environmental l i m i t a t i o n s by technological means i s not a f e a s i b l e one, then i t would seem de s i r a b l e , even necessary, that expectations of continued growth be revised before natural l i m i t s are imposed. This w i l l involve fundamental 13 changes to most of our current economic p r a c t i c e s and consumption habits. Various suggestions have been made as to the s h i f t which economic p r o d u c t i v i t y should begin to make. To i l l u s t r a t e the nature of the t r a n s i t i o n which i s d e s i r a b l e , 18 we can (to use an analogy coined by Daly) compare the human economy to an ecosystem moving from an e a r l i e r to a l a t e r stage of succession; as with the ecosystem, the natural course of events f o r the economy i s that production, growth and quantity should evolve into p r o t e c t i v e maintenance, s t a b i l i t y , and q u a l i t y , r e s p e c t i v e l y , as the major s o c i a l goals. The basic needs which stimulated a demand f o r production, growth, and quantity have been l a r g e l y s a t i s f i e d ( i n North America, at l e a s t ) , and we are i n a p o s i t i o n now to redefine progress i n q u a l i t a t i v e terms. What t h i s would involve i s a change i n emphasis from economic growth c o n s i s t i n g of material goods production to economic growth i n 19 terms of nonphysical goods. This i s , i n e f f e c t , a s u b s t i t u t i o n of time-intensive a c t i v i t i e s f o r m a t e r i a l - i n t e n s i v e commodities. T y p i c a l 20 of the former group are education and l e i s u r e a c t i v i t i e s . In add i t i o n , health care and other s o c i a l services would be emphasized. Economic p r o d u c t i v i t y and growth based p r i m a r i l y on p r o v i s i o n of services instead of goods would have the advantage of being non-polluting, of not consuming resources wastefully,.and of providing more meaningful work f o r a l a r g e r number of people. This r e d i r e c t i o n of economic growth (i n a t r a d i t i o n a l sense, i t i s "non-growth") would have extensive s o c i a l i m p l i c a t i o n s . In what kind of society could such r e d i r e c t i o n be brought about? CHAPTER THREE THE EMERGENCE OF A POST-INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY The changing emphasis of economic p r o d u c t i v i t y suggested i n Chapter Two cannot l i k e l y he achieved within the s t r u c t u r a l and c u l t u r a l framework of i n d u s t r i a l society. Changes of t h i s magnitude require r e l a t e d s h i f t s of emphasis i n other aspects of the society as w e l l . The t r a n s i t i o n from an i n d u s t r i a l to a p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y i s the context f o r the r e d i r e c t i o n suggested. A. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a P o s t - I n d u s t r i a l Society In the words of Bertram Gross, one of the s i l l i e s t of a l l American myths i s the present-as-culmination i l l u s i o n . . . T h i s i s the myth that we i n the United States have a r r i v e d , that countries l i k e India and N i g e r i a are ' t r a n s i t i o n a l ' s o c i e t i e s close to the ' t a k e - o f f toward 'self-sustained growth'. This misses a c e n t r a l f a c t of t h i s century: that the United States i s i t s e l f a t r a n s i t i o n a l society i n the throes of a great transformation from the l a s t stage of i n d u s t r i a l i s m to the f i r s t stage of post-industrialism.2j References to revolutionary s o c i a l change of t h i s nature are becoming more prevalent i n the l i t e r a t u r e . Although there are a wide v a r i e t y of explanations f o r , and d e s c r i p t i o n s of, t h i s change process, there i s considerable consensus that western society i s at a major turning point, and that future society w i l l d i f f e r v a s t l y from contemporary 22 s o c i e t y . B a s i c a l l y , the conclusion that a transformation of such 15 significance i s actually occuring rests on two related perceptions: f i r s t , the observation that certain social trends and other indications of fundamental change are becoming more pervasive, and that persistence of these trends would constitute profound alteration to the structure of the society; second, the realization that the cultural values and adjustment strategies which evolved to meet the needs of industrial society are inadequate for coping with these structural changes, and that the eventual adoption of new cultural values to match the structural changes would constitute profound alteration to the social fabric of the society. 23 Opinions vary as to the speed of this transformation. Tr i s t feels that, structurally, the existence of post-industrial society is already established. His analysis of the nature of the structural changes which have taken (or are taking) place i s probably the most thorough and comprehensive in taking into account a l l aspects of society. For present purposes this discussion w i l l be concerned mainly with providing an overview of the most common themes in the literature regarding the nature of the structural changes. The underlying condition leading to this social transformation is the science-technology revolution, characterized by uneven, 24 accelerating, and changing rates of change. The rate of discovery and invention has been explosive during the past two decades, and we have 25 come to accept rapid change as a normal, no-change condition. There is every indication that new technologies w i l l continue to be created and this, coupled with expanding knowledge of physical, biological, and 16 social systems, is triggering off a great increase in our capacity to modify those systems. The p o s s i b i l i t i e s extend beyond the limits of our present a b i l i t y to cope with change, and raise serious questions 26 27 concerning the limitations of human adaptation. T r i s t describes this environment of rapid change and in s t a b i l i t y as a turbulent f i e l d , arising from the increased complexity and size of the total environment. It i s from this technological revolution that changes to the structure of industrial society are emanating. The change in the character of the economy, from production of primarily material goods to a mix of material goods and services (discussed 28 previously), is already beginning to be evident. This constitutes one of the most significant phase changes in the transition from an industrial to a post-industrial society; quite l i t e r a l l y , the designation "post-industrial" is appropriate for a society whose economic ac t i v i t i e s are increasingly involving the provision of services rather 29 than the production of goods. As Trist has pointed out, when goods and goods-related services are separated from service-related services and person-related services, the latter group now account for more than half the GNP, for more than half of total employment, and for most of the gains in numbers employed (based on U.S. data). Related to this i s the emergence of the non-market sector as a major source of wealth—by some accounts the non-market sector i s beginning to exceed the 30 market sector. This trend w i l l no doubt increase as the need to absorb social costs in addition to market costs becomes more unavoidable. This is particularly true for the public costs which w i l l necessarily be 17 incurred i n the r e s t o r a t i o n of environmental q u a l i t y . The changing nature of work i s one of the most s a l i e n t c h a r a c t e r i -s t i c s of the t r a n s i t i o n from an i n d u s t r i a l to a p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l stage of development, i n i t s repurcussions on the s o c i a l organization of the 31 society. Many observers are p r e d i c i t n g that the time i s coming where 32 to work w i l l be the p r i v i l e g e of a well-educated e l i t e . The stages through which human society has evolved i n t h i s regard i n d i c a t e how profound a change of t h i s nature would be: i n p r e - i n d u s t r i a l times work was a necessity f o r l i f e ; i n the early i n d u s t r i a l era work was considered to be man's duty and pride; i n the l a t e i n d u s t r i a l era work became a r i g h t ; and now we are witnessing the beginning of a s i t u a t i o n 33 i n which work w i l l become not a r i g h t , but a status symbol. It i s already evident that those who are most highly educated and who have the most i n t e r e s t i n g and important jobs work considerably longer hours than do the working cl a s s and lower echelons of the white c o l l a r ranks. The automation which moved men from the farms into the f a c t o r i e s and, more recentl y , from the f a c t o r i e s to o f f i c e s , w i l l i n the near future l i k e l y take over many of the routine office-based paper-work occupations as w e l l . The onset of these changes i s c u r r e n t l y r e f l e c t e d i n the widespread recognition that most of the u n s k i l l e d and under-educated can expect to be excluded from the labor force today, and the further r e a l i z a t i o n that careers are l i k e l y to be s e r i a l rather than s i n g l e , due to the obsolescence of c e r t a i n jobs and the i n f u s i o n of new ones i n the 34 p r o f e s s i o n a l and s e r v i c e sectors. The implications f o r our value system of the long-range forecast that i t w i l l not be necessary, and 18 indeed not possible, for everyone to work are enormous. Another salient aspect of the transition process is represented 35 by the information explosion. The rise of cybernation and various means of rapid electronic communication have, in effect, eliminated the space and time limitations which u n t i l this point in history had inhibited greatly the sharing of knowledge and information at the local as well as the global level. At the same time as these techniques are proving effective in disseminating information, they are strengthening the knowledge basis as well through advanced research and analytical techniques. As mentioned above, this is leading to many r e a l i s t i c p o s s i b i l i t i e s for intervention in the l i f e support systems. Another 36 result of information becoming the most important new technology is the advancement of the. knowledge industry into the centre of influence and power, with scientists and professionals coming to replace financiers 37 and industrialists as the p o l i t i c a l l y most influential establishment. This w i l l most l i k e l y have consequences for the type of goals which the society chooses to pursue in the future. Fundamental shifts in the patterns of formal organizations can be 38 observed. We are accustomed to think in terms of large, single-purpose organizations which are functionally efficient in their concentration on isolated problem areas. The misconception here is the 39 belief that any problem can in fact be "isolated". Chevalier has described the emergence of an essentially new kind of problem which demands new administrative approaches; the meta-problem, as he defines i t , i s the perception of clusters of problem areas as a single, massive 19 problem, in effect, an aggregation composed of many dynamically integrated elements or sub-elements. To deal with these requires a cooperative approach achieved through increasing functional overlap and administrative mergers. This new approach is resulting in the transition from the i n i t i a l large-scale formal organization to s t i l l larger clusters and constellations composed of intertwined corporations, 40 associations, and agencies at a l l levels. Resistance to the need for adaptation of this nature results in the well-known symptoms of bureaucratic inefficiency and ineffectiveness. Recognition of the existence of the meta-problem i s a hopeful indication that this scale increase is not simply a quantitative jump to yet larger bureaucracies, but rather a step in the direction of more comprehensive and relevant decision-making. Another distinction between industrial and post-industrial society i s in terms of response to the future. Through most of the industrial age, the future was seen as closely resembling the present; where conditions and events would depart from the present, the response 41 was to accommodate to those conditions and events. The big change is the current shift away from that image and accommodative response, and a greater willingness to acknowledge that a non-intervention approach w i l l not solve problems, as i t was presumed to do in the past. With the emergence of the post-industrial stage of development, the future i s coming to be seen by many to depart drastically from the present, and there is increased interest in designing the future, so to speak. There 42 has been a rapid rise in the quasi-science of futurism and, similarly, 20 in the use of simulation models on a variety of scales. Forecasting and planning of one sort or another are further encouraged by the av a i l a b i l i t y of the expanded technology and knowledge base discussed above. That these trends are very much in evidence is seldom disputed; that, taken together, they signify or constitute social change of 43 revolutionary magnitude is not so generally accepted. Harman has made a study of historical occurrences of revolutionary cultural and p o l i t i c a l change, from which he has come up with the following l i s t of "lead indicators of revolutionary change", or typical occurrences i n the period leading up to that change. They are: 1) decreased sense of community 2) increased sense of alienation and purposelessness 3) increased occurrence of violent crimes 4) increased frequency of personal disorders and mental ill n e s s 5) increased frequency and severity of social disruptions 6) increased use of police to control behaviour 7) increased public acceptance of hedonistic behaviour 8) increase in amount of noninstitutionalized religious a c t i v i t i e s There is an impressive coincidence between the behaviours l i s t e d and the increasing frequency with which occurrences of this kind have been reported in the newspapers (for example) over the past decade, much more so in the United States than in Canada, however. At any rate, there 21 is no need to debate here the val i d i t y of the revolutionary change inter-pretation of the trends under discussion. The point is that profound changes to the structure of industrial society are becoming increasingly prevalent, that many observers feel we are ill-prepared to cope with these—and that the indications of social unrest cited above may or may not be the product of stresses related to these changes. B. The Role of Value Change in the Transition to Post-Industrialism The importance of value change in bringing about successful adjustment to the new conditions cannot be emphasized too strongly. For one thing, " i t i s very nearly a truism that most of our severe societal problems are essentially the consequence of our technological 44 and industrial successes." The nature of these problems is such that many analysts seriously question whether those basic values and premises which have served to build up our present technological and industrial capabilities are now suitable for the humane application, or even rational control, of those powers. Forms of adaptation, both personal and organizational, developed to meet a simpler type of environment no longer suffice to meet the higher levels of complexity now coming into existence. The structural emergence of the post-industrial society has not been accompanied by appropriate cultural values to f a c i l i t a t e 45 adjustment to, and management of, the new conditions. To take just one example, an area of much potential confusion and conflict i s in the realm of the changing nature of work, discussed above. 22 Under industrial conditions, where jobs were available for most of the labour force, the expectation that work was necessary, and that individuals would support themselves through participation in the job market, was a r e a l i s t i c one. As the work force shrinks to encompass progressively smaller numbers of workers, two problems are i n sight: f i r s t , another means of income distribution than through jobs w i l l have to be devised; and, second, a new ethic for use of leisure time w i l l have to be created to replace the mores which have for so long assured us that work is more virtuous than idleness. Today, with the f i r s t indication of chronic unemployment, we see that public reaction does not appear to favour a post-industrial solution to either aspect of this problem. Instead, as suggested in Chapter Two, "more growth" i s the solution sought. Most observers do not go so far as to suggest in specific terms just what acceptable cultural values might be; to use T r i s t ' s ^ analogy, new and appropriate trends are nearer the horizon than the main sky. Trist's own paradigm of "changes in emphasis of social patterns in the transition to post-industrialism" i s probably the most comprehensive and explicit attempt to suggest what cultural values of the future might be li k e . His suggested trends are, indeed, very credible ones and the details of this paradigm are included in Appendix A. Of more general interest, certain suggestions found in the literature might be indicative of values which should be encouraged. 1) greater emphasis on communal actions, more cooperation and 23 less competition 48 2) more time spent in participation in p o l i t i c s and planning 49 3) increasing interest in humanistic and transcendental values 4) greater demand for educational and cultural f a c i l i t i e s ^ 0 5) greater acceptance of social diversity and cultural pluralism"* 1 52 6) affirmation of man as a part of nature 53 7) declining interest in acquisition of material goods This is not an exhaustive l i s t , nor are the items independent o one another. It i s simply a suggestion as to the direction in which we may be heading. To some extent these values are beginning to take hold in certain strata of contemporary society. It can be observed that "the persistence of outmoded forms i s unevenly distributed among the many strata and sectors which make up a large p l u r a l i s t i c society" In the future i t w i l l be of some value to recognize the conditions under which the cultural lag problem i s more or less pronounced, in order to aid the change process. CHAPTER FOUR METHODOLOGY The research technique employed to test the hypothesis was formulation and administration of a questionnaire to a sample of Vancouver residents. This chapter w i l l detail, in sequence, the cl a r i f i c a t i o n of the value orientations referred to in the hypothesis (Section A); the formulation of the testing items (Section B); the content of the Questionnaire (Section C); selection and characteristics of the sample (Sections D. and E); preparation of the data (Section F) for s t a t i s t i c a l analysis (Section G); and the pre-test of the Questionnaire (Section H). A. Clari f i c a t i o n of the Value Orientations The hypothesis u t i l i z e d a distinction between traditional and non-traditional values. For each suggested value orientation, a judgment has been made as to what constitutes a traditional orientation and what is considered a progressive orientation. The frame of reference for this distinction is identification of the value orientation with either an industrial or a post-industrial cultural outlook: a value orientation appropriate to a post-industrial culture i s deemed to be progressive,' while a value orientation which i s generally associated with an industrial society i s considered to be traditional. Support for this interpretation 25 in the case of values II and III (man's relationship to nature and preference for material goods) can be derived from the reference to these particular value orientations by several contemporary writers as significant ones in the transition to post-industrialism (see page 23). Accordingly, a judgment is being made here as to which value-set i s most desirable for the society to encourage. Re-statement of the value neutral questions posed in Chapter One are on the basis of this judgment is as follows: Value I: The traditional emphasis in industrial society on technological advancement as an important criterion of human progress should be modified to emphasize social betterment and cultural improvement as the primary indicators of progress in a post-industrial society. Value II: Willingness to exploit the physical environment for human purposes i s a traditional tenet of industrial society. It is related to the view that man is separate from nature, and that the natural environment exists primarily for man's benefit. This point of view should be replaced by a greater valuation of the physical environment in i t s natural state, and an appreciation that i t s existence contributes to man's well-being in more important ways than provision of material benefit. Value III: Emphasis on convenience, use of time- and labor-saving devices, and substitution of natural substances with manufactured ones, are basic characteristics of industrial society; willingness to adopt more "organic" and less complex modes of consumption is a pre-requisite for rejection of further material growth 26 These value orientations w i l l at times be referred to by the assigned numbers, since the sense of each i s not easily condensed into a convenient word or phrase. B. Operationalizing the Hypothesis Testing the hypothesis required a means of measuring the three value orientations and attitude toward growth. The latter i s most easily explained, and w i l l be dealt with f i r s t . Measurement of attitude toward growth consisted of, f i r s t , discerning a respondent's perceptions of growth and, second, finding out his opinion on this growth or non-growth. It was considered to be of some interest and importance to f i r s t of a l l verify the assumption that everyone is aware of the relatively high growth rate of the Greater Vancouver region. In order to obtain more accurate insight into what citizen reactions are to particular aspects of growth, a distinction was made between population growth, physical growth, economic growth, and increase in material goods consumption, as outlined in Chapter One. This was considered to be the finest level of distinction which could be made while s t i l l maintaining recognition of the separate components through the use of everyday descriptions thereof. The third growth sector, economic activity, i s , at this level of generality, open to question as to which type of economic ac t i v i t i e s i t implies. Where this enquiry was raised by those f i l l i n g out the questionnaire, a standard explanation of "business in general, meaning a l l types of industry and r e t a i l activity", was used. The intention was to exclude 27 welfare, cultural and service a c t i v i t i e s from consideration here, in order to measure as accurately as possible orientation toward material growth, which is traditionally the industrial conception of economic activity. The actual testing items (consisting of seven questions) constructed to determine awareness of, and attitude toward, these growth sectors are included in Appendix B. Note that the fourth growth sector—material goods consumption—is closely tied to growth of economic activity as defined above. The query on material goods consumption i s in a sense simply a different way of asking the same thing, except that i t i s more to the point and possibly w i l l provide responses which are a more accurate reflection of an individual's material growth orientation. Practically speaking, material goods are i n many ways both the result of and the impetus toward increased economic activity. For this reason, then, desire for greater consumption of material goods i s assumed to be closely a l l i e d with an individual's disposition to favor economic growth. Operationalizing the three value orientations was a less straight-forward procedure. Discerning and measuring an individual's values is a d i f f i c u l t and complex task. Direct questioning on the subject i s seldom useful. Some means of indirect assessment i s a more accurate guage of pr i o r i t i e s and values. For this purpose, a series of attitude statements was constructed to form three measurement scales, one relating to each of Values I, II, and III. The intent was that an individual's agree or disagree response to each attitude statement would reflect to some extent his orientation on the related value, and that, cumulatively, 28 the value scales (each of which was composed of a l l the attitude state-ments relating to that value) would reflect with some degree of accuracy a respondent's position on the values in question. I n i t i a l l y , the idea of using attitude statements to tap various aspects of more fundamental beliefs was derived from a review of McKechnie's Environmental Response Inventory.**~* His study employs large numbers of such items, carefully chosen to measure the relative strength of various impulses and orientations on specific aspects of the natural and cultural environment. The dimensions which McKechnie was measuring are not similar to the three with which this study i s concerned (with the exception that the scale formulated to measure Value II overlaps somewhat with his Environmental Adaptation scale), but examination of the logic on which his study is based was useful for deriving a procedure for this work. The task of formulating appropriate and valid attitude statements was a laborious one. On the f i r s t attempt to create a testing tool, most of the items were borrowed from McKenchnie. Subsequently, a l l but seven of these items proved to be insufficiently related to the values being studies, to be of use. The majority of the attitude statements ultimately used were formulated specifically for this study, by a process of intuition and informal content analysis. At f i r s t the procedure was largely guesswork, although as a core group of relevant attitude statements evolved for each value orientation, i t became easier to make up additional related items. The attitude statements are one-sentence value judgments with which 29 a respondent could agree or disagree on a five-point scale. Condensation of the wide spectrum of opinion which exists on any given issue to a choice of five standardized responses to an unqualified statement is a crude measure at best, but, for the sake of quantification, this simplification of issues and opinions was necessary. It was anticipated (and substantiated by later observation) that many respondents in the study would experience d i f f i c u l t y in categorizing their response to some of the items, because of the fact that most of the statements are of a general nature. In a sense i t is true to say that everyone could claim both agreement and disagreement with a large number of the attitude statements, depending on what conditions and qualifiers one thinks of when assessing the statement. It is maintained here that this generality does not invalidate the significance of a response: the choice of response ultimately made w i l l in most cases reflect an individual's p r i o r i t i e s and his assessment of whether the positive or negative implications of the statement are most important. Two examples from each scale w i l l help to c l a r i f y what is meant here. Value I: You can't stop progress. Welfare benefits should be given to a l l those in need, whether they are willing to work or not. Value II: Preservation of wilderness areas is not particularly important where these are not accessible for enjoyment by the public. The best use for a piece of land can be determined by economic studies. 30 Value III: I would rather have a canoe than a motor boat. An electric can opener i s a desirable convenience to have in a kitchen. Note that, to be consistent, an "agree" response to the f i r s t statement of Value I would have to be matched by a "disagree" response to the following attitude statement. This response set i s considered traditional. By the same token, an "agree" response to the f i r s t statement of Value III requires, for consistency, a "disagree" response to the next statement; this response set was judged to be indicative of progressive values. The loading or response bias of each attitude state-ment was taken into account in the coding of responses to the item (see Section F below). Notice also that the subject matter of the statements varies widely. While superficially i t may appear that a statement does not have much in common with the value orientation as described, in fact the subjective content of the statement i s in most cases of l i t t l e importance. The basis for the usefulness of the item is often not i t s l i t e r a l meaning, but rather i t s inference, the underlying assumptions on which response to the manifest content i s made. The question of content validity of the value scales constructed was approached with formal s t a t i s t i c a l analysis. There are two levels on which this may be examined: f i r s t , how does one know that the state-ments which have been classified together are really measuring the same thing? Second, how can we know that this "same thing" i s in fact the 31 value orientation that i t is purported to be? To address the second question f i r s t , the only vali d i t y criterion available i s to examine a l l the related statements together and (presuming the f i r s t requirement above has been satisfactorily met) try to describe, on the basis of their aggregated content, the value areas which are involved. In the case of the three value scales used in this study, i t i s believed that there i s sufficient l i t e r a l similarity between the content of the statements and the sense of the respective value orientations, to correctly assume that the statements adequately delineate the particular value orientation. The f i r s t question raised was formally addressed by means of a pre-test, which is described i n Section H of this chapter. C. The Quest ionnaire As mentioned at the beginning of this chapter, a questionnaire was formulated to test the hypothesis. Personal interviews with respondents, in their homes, was the method chosen for administering this questionnaire. A mail survey could have been undertaken but, because of the importance * of having each respondent complete the questionnaire on his own, and the generally lower response rate and longer time requirement of mailed surveys of this sort, i t was f e l t that time spent conducting the research in person would be worthwhile. An additional factor was the desirability The controversial nature of many of the questions aroused the suspicion that this requirement would not be f u l f i l l e d unless an interviewer was actually present. 32 of having the opportunity to observe f i r s t hand the responses and reactions to the questionnaire items, inasmuch as this would contribute greatly to familiarity with the data obtained. The complete questionnaire i s shown in Appendix B. It w i l l be recalled that questions 1-7 on this questionnaire deal with perception of, and attitude toward, the four components of growth. Questions 8-68 consist of the attitude statements (see Section H for discussion of how these were selected). In addition, certain demographic data were noted for each respondent, in order to determine the characteristics of the sample. What these items were, and why they were included, w i l l be commented upon br i e f l y . 1. Sex: this was included as a control item. In a situation where the proportion of males and females in the sample i s significantly unequal (which was anticipated), i t i s important to know whether this imbalance i s a source of bias in the overall results. 2. Age: i t was anticipated that a respondent's age would be correlated with his values and level of awareness. The actual age, rather than an age category, was used. 3. Education: this was included to test the prediction that low formal education would be correlated with traditional values. A six-point scale was used: 1—grade school; 2—some high school; 3—high school completion; 4—some university, nursing diploma, technical 33 or vocational training beyond high school; 5—university degree; 6—post-graduate degree. 4. Native Language: an attempt was made, primarily by avoiding certain parts of the city, to exclude from the sample those persons whose mother tongue was not English. The reason for this i s that a different native language almost always indicates a significantly different cultural background and, hence, a different perspective on the values and opinions being studied here. This study is not of sufficient scale to include such variables. Native English speakers were coded '0' on the questionnaire, and non-native English speakers were coded '1', so that i t may be noted from response correlations with this variable i f any bias resulted from inclusion in the sample of a small number of non-native English speakers. No questions about native language were asked; the only criterion was whether or not an accent could be detected in the respondent's speech. If the level of English was so low that the respondent would have d i f f i c u l t y with the questions, only the f i r s t seven questions were asked (verbally) and the answers were not counted. 5. Location in the City: respondents whose address was labelled East were coded '1', and those whose address was labelled West were coded '0'. In the case of non-numeric street names, Main Street provided the East-West boundary line. This division corresponds roughly with the socio-economic distribution of Vancouver residents. As a 34 crude two-variable index i t i s possibly not very meaningful, but i t w i l l be of interest as a control variable. The relatively small sample size does not permit further areal breakdown. A direct question on income, to determine socio-economic status more accurately, was not asked because, f i r s t of a l l , a simple income variable i s influenced by many things (stage of the l i f e cycle, for example), to the point where in many cases i t is invalid as an indicator of socio-economic status, and the trouble of obtaining a more complex index was not f e l t to be worthwhile; and, secondly, asking personal questions such as this can make the interviewee uncomfortable and disturb the rapport. D. Selection of the Sample The research objective was to administer the questionnaire to a sample of approximately 150 Vancouver residents. There did not appear to be a need to obtain a rigorously random sample; the main concern was that the sample contain different groups of age, socio-economic status, and l i f e styles. The latter criterion i s believed to be associated with value preferences and, therefore, i t was of importance, since testing the hypothesis required that there be a significant number of respondents in the sample who adhere to what has been designated non-traditional (progressive) values. The method chosen for obtaining such a sample was to select households, from which to obtain respondents, on the basis of their location in the city. The actual selection of households was done by designating major d i s t r i c t s in the city, and then ar b i t r a r i l y choosing, in advance, streets 35 in the d i s t r i c t . One day per d i s t r i c t was the limit set for interviewing in most cases, and every household on the block selected was approached. Whoever in the household was willing to be interviewed was used, provided that they could speak English. When one block was exhausted, the adjacent block was surveyed, as time permitted. Appendix C contains a map showing location of respondents within the city, and includes the addresses of the blocks surveyed. Since most of the interviewing (roughly three-quarters) was done in the daytime, a high rate of absenteeism was found. Also, overall the refusal rate was relatively high. No advance letters were sent, so to a certain extent this was to be expected. The refusal rate varied widely, from three or more refusals per completed interview in some parts of the city, to only one refusal in ten completed interviews in others. The refusal rate was consistently higher on the east side of the city, but was considerably reduced when the introduction was prefaced with the announcement that "I am not selling anything". In addition, part of the reason why there were fewer men than women in the sample (gee Section E below) is that there was a notably high refusal rate among men over age 40. This pattern was found i n a l l parts of this c i t y , and overall i t i s estimated that the 40-50 age group, especially males, i s under-represented in the sample. E. Characteristics of the Sample A sample of 159 respondents, a l l l i v i n g in the City of Vancouver, was obtained by the procedure described. The sample eonsisted of the 36 following: 1. 106 women and 53 men, a 2:1 ratio. 2. Average age of 38.8 years, with a range of from 17-82 years. 3. Average education of 3.3, which is slightly better than high school level. Possibly the average was skewed upwards somewhat by the fact that the scale was not accurately weighted to the actual distribution of the population: the upper part of the scale made finer distinctions, by means of a larger number of categories, than the lower part and, therefore, higher deviation from the average was weighted more heavily than lower deviation from the average. 4. 20 respondents, or 12% of the sample, were non-native English speakers, from a variety of backgrounds (not documented). Most of these spoke English very well, and a l l were at least competent in the language. 5. 105 respondents were from the west side of the city, and 54 were from the east side (again, see map and table in Appendix C). It w i l l be noted from Appendix C that one-third of the sample was from different parts of the Kitsilano area. This is a distinct over-representation, but i t seemed desirable for two reasons: f i r s t , practicality and convenience for interviewing; and, second, i n t e r e s t — a 37 greater diversity of l i f e styles i s found in this area than elsewhere in the city, and the aim was to include in the sample a sufficient number of respondents who were l i k e l y to have non-traditional values, for the sake of a more balanced comparison. Because of this, i t may be less valid to generalize the results to the population at large, but for the purpose of this study, the need to have a significant number of respondents with non-traditional values, against whom to test the hypothesis, has been f u l f i l l e d . F. Preparation of the Data for Analysis Before s t a t i s t i c a l analysis could be undertaken to test the hypothesis, the raw data, f i r s t had to be aggregated into manageable variables. To do this involved deriving a value I, a value II, and a value III score for each respondent, and also deriving growth scores for each of the component sectors. To deal f i r s t with the value scores, re c a l l from Section B that three value scales were formed, consisting of the attitude statements included in the questionnaire. Appendix D indicates to which value scale each of the attitude statements was assigned. These scales provided the means of measuring each of the value orientations. To derive three measurements, or scores, for each respondent was a matter of summing his responses to the attitude statements which relate to each of the three scales. Responses were easily quantified, with coding as follows: strongly agree=l; agree=2; no opinion=3; disagree=4; and strongly disagree=5. For most of the statements, the code number 38 could be added in a straightforward procedure, and the higher the resulting score, the less traditional the value orientation of the respondent. This was so because the nature of most of the attitude statements was such that they were affirming traditional values, and the respondent who did not share the value expressed by the statement was obliged to disagree with i t . For a disagreement response he would receive 4 or 5 points, as compared with 1 or 2 points for the respondent who agreed with the traditional value being expressed. About three-quarters of the attitude statements are biased in this direction, simply because, on the whole, more subtle statements were produced by wording ideas this way. Those statements which are a positive affirmation of progressive values (the opposite) were scored by reversing the code number and, for example, adding 2 points for a disagree response, etc. This procedure was used to obtain three scores for each of the 159 respondents. Growth scores were required for each respondent as well. Basically, this involved translating each respondent's opinions on the desirability or undesirability of population, physical, economic and material growth into a numerical equivalent. Accordingly, responses to questions 1-6 of the questionnaire were combined and coded as indicated below. 1. A respondent was said to be in favor of growth i f he said For this procedure, responses to questions 1 and 2, 3 and 4, 5 and 6, had to be combined to determine the respondent's opinion, since in each case the opinion response was contingent upon the answer to the preceding perception question. 39 that (i) a particular growth sector was increasing, and that this was desirable, or ( i i ) the growth sector was declining (or staying the same) and that this was undesirable; a pro-growth opinion was coded 1. 2. A respondent was determined to be against continued growth i f he said either that (i) a particular sector was growing, and that this was undesirable, or ( i i ) the growth sector was declining (or staying the same) and that this was desirable; an anti-growth opinion was coded 3. 3. In a l l cases a noncomittal opinion ("don't know") was coded 2. Responses to question 7, regarding material goods consumption, could be coded by a straightforward translation: preference for use of more material goods was coded 1, use of the same amount of material goods was coded 2, and use of fewer material goods was coded 3. This is parallel to the desirable/undesirable coding scale noted above. For interest, i t was decided to measure overall orientation to growth as well, by cumulating opinions on a l l four growth components to for a "Total" growth index. The code numbers assigned to the separate growth responses were summed to produce this overall indicator of orientation toward growth. The "Total" score which was derived for each respondent ranged from 4 (4 x 1 point) to 12 (4 x 3 points). And, as with the value scales, a higher score represents a less traditional orientation than does a lower score, since an anti-growth orientation was 40 judged to be non-traditional. Derivation of a sixth growth score involved basically the same procedure, the difference being that opinions on only two growth sectors were summed to make a partial index--the economic activity and material goods consumption aspects of growth. They were combined to make a separate index (labelled material-economic growth orientation) because intuitively i t was fe l t that these growth components would be the most salient in terms of the hypothesis, and i t would be of interest to observe how their interaction affected the correlations obtained. G. St a t i s t i c a l Analysis The calculations performed on the aggregated data (which, with the raw data^made a total of 82 variables) were done by the computer, u t i l i z i n g a TRIP program. This is the shortened name for Triangular Regression Package. The TRIP program consists of a number of different routines, which w i l l perform very simple as well as very complex analysis problems. The routine which satisfied a l l the needs of this analysis was the INMSDC routine. The INMSDC routine is used to read raw data, weight observations, extract subsets of the observations, and produce means, standard deviations, and correlations. The last three calculations were the only ones required for present purposes. The correlation coefficients were most important. They specified the extent to which any combination of pairs from the 82 variables were related to each other. 41 H. Pre-test In the course of constructing an appropriate questionnaire, many different versions of the testing tool were tried out. Several informa pre-tests were carried out with "convenient" respondents (friends and acquaintances), and one formal pre-test was conducted by knocking on doors in the Kitsilano and Point Grey areas of Vancouver. A sample of 17 was obtained in this way and, while i t was by no means random, this procedure yielded a diversity of respondents. The primary purpose of carrying out a pre-test was to check the content v a l i d i t y of the attitude statements. This was in response to a question raised in Section B of this chapter, which suggested the importance of verifying that those attitude statements grouped together are in fact measuring the same value disposition. The content vali d i t y check for each attitude statement was made by noting i t s correlation coefficient with each of the value scale scores. To be a valid measure i t was expected that each statement would (1) correlate better with the scale to which i t had been assigned than with the other two scales, and (2) correlate above the .05 significance level with the appropriate scale. What this means, in effect, is that the statement in question has contributed more to items on its own scale than i t has to items on the other scales; and, most important, that responses to that Statement are not random, but are in fact associated with predictable responses to other statements on that scale. To summarize the interpretation of the pre-test analysis, several changes to the questionnaire were made on the basis of the content 42 val i d i t y check. Of the sixty-five original pre-test attitude statements, forty-nine were included in the f i n a l questionnaire, some with minor modifications. Other changes included switching an item from one scale to another i f the correlations obtained warranted a reassignment. Subsequently, twelve new attitude state-ments were constructed and assigned, without benefit of pre-test, in order to ensure that each value scale had approximately twenty items relating to i t . CHAPTER FIVE RESULTS I: CITIZEN PERCEPTIONS OF AND OPINIONS ON GROWTH OF GREATER VANCOUVER The responses to four of the f i r s t seven questionnaire items were readily tabulated by simply taking t a l l i e s for questions 1, 3, 5 and 7 (the f i r s t three concerning perceptions of growth and the latter regarding preference for material goods). Responses to questions 2, 4, and 6 (the opinion questions) had to be compiled by the procedure described on pages 38 and 39. Table V.l shows the results of these tabulations. A. Comments on Perception of Growth Perceptions of growth were on the whole r e a l i s t i c . The small percentage of respondents who appeared not to be aware of population and physical growth is probably the same proportion who are generally unaware of what's happening in their city. It i s of some interest to note, however, that respondents were less l i k e l y to perceive growth in the economic activity sector, than in the population or physical growth sectors. From verbal comments made by respondents during the interview, three explanations are offered as to the basis for responses to question 5. Detailed notes on this were not made at the time of the interview, so the extent to which each explanation i s valid can only be estimated. 1. roughly half of the 77% who perceive that economic 44 activity is increasing appeared to be quite certain of this, and stated so with no hesitation. 2. approximately the same number of respondents indicated that they were not sure what the state of economic activity was—not because i t was d i f f i c u l t to find out, but because they hadn't thought about i t at a l l . The line of reasoning pursued by this group in choosing a response was that, since population and built-up areas are growing, then economic activity must be increasing as well. 3. the 23% of the sample who did not perceive economic activity as increasing were, from the interviewer's observation, actively dissatisfied with the state of the economy. A l l but one of this group of respondents stated that this non-growth was undesirable. Possibly i t would have been interesting, for subsequent correlations, to code this group separately as being more in favor of growth than those who were merely satisfied that the economy i s increasing. Such distinction in coding was not made, however. 45 TABLE V . l SUMMARY OF PERCEPTIONS AND OPINIONS ON GROWTH Respondent Perceptions of Population Growth No. of Percentage of Respondents Respondents increasing 154 97% staying the same 5 3% decreasing 0 -Respondent Opinions on Population Growth d e s i r a b l e 52 32% undesirable 79 50% noncomittal 28 18% Respondent Perceptions of Ph y s i c a l Growth increasing 152 95% staying the same 7 5% decreasing 0 -Respondent Opinions on Phy s i c a l Growth de s i r a b l e 60 _ 38% undesirable 86 54% noncomittal 13 . 8 % Respondent Perceptions of Economic Growth increasing staying the decreasing same 123 26 10 77% 16% 7% 46 Table V.l cont'd 6. Respondent Opinions on Growth of Economic Activity desirable 107 67% undesirable 30 19% noncomittal 22 14% 7. Respondent Preferences for Use of Material Goods use more 43 27% use same amount 56 35% use fewer 60 38% B. Comments on Opinions on Growth Opinions on the desirability of increasing population, physical, economic and material growth varied widely. For population and physical growth, approximately the same proportion of respondents (50-54%) were against further growth in each case; similarly, approximately the same proportion of respondents (32-38%) were in favor of further growth in each of these sectors. However, observations made while interviewing suggest, and correlations shown in Table V.2 confirm, that similar opinions on the two sectors do not necessarily occur together: i t was quite possible for a respondent to be against population growth on the one hand, and at the same time be in favor of increasing physical growth, or vice versa. Generally a respondent would know his opinion on population and physical growth without having to give too much thought to the question, 47 although i t is of some importance to note that having an opinion on whether or not growth is desirable was, in the view of some respondents, irrelevant, since the main point was the in e v i t a b i l i t y of growth in any case. These respondents were reluctant to express any other opinion than that growth is inevitable, although i t turned out that a decision, when f i n a l l y taken, was not always "don't know". By far the greatest support for more growth was in the economic activity sector; f u l l y two-thirds of a l l respondents supported this goal, in the main without apparent hesitation. It is interesting to note that this i s 40% more than are in favor of increasing further the use of material goods. If these two variables are related (as was suggested), and i f economic activity was perceived as including only goods production and r e t a i l activity (as was intended), then logically there should not be such a wide discrepancy between the two figures. Two explanations are plausible. F i r s t , i t could be that economic activity was considered to include a c t i v i t i e s not related to material goods production and marketing. This i s a possibility, but in my view an unlikely one, since the verbal explanation given excluded implicitly other categories of economic activity. Moreover, i t is believed that the majority of respondents were not sufficiently sophisticated in their conception of the economy to think of including service a c t i v i t i e s as a major component of economic activity. The second, more l i k e l y , explanation is that the pro-growth response here was basically just a habitual one, based on the frequently unquestioned assumption that growth means progress, and progress is always desirable. A pro-growth orientation is presumed 48 to follow the latter line of reasoning, and this i s the basis for the hypothesized relationship between an individual's concept of progress and his opinion on growth. One comment should be made regarding the t a l l i e s for question 7. It i s quite possible that the 38% figure for those in favor of using fewer material goods is higher than i t would be for the general population of Vancouver'. This could be one ramification of the fact that the Kitsilano area was over-represented in the sample. The inclusion in the sample of a relatively large proportion of respondents with a more youthful l i f e style, which was desired as a means of obtaining a variety of value orientations, probably i s related to the propensity to reject consumption of material goods. There is no reason to believe that this sample bias affected the other growth opinions in the same way, however. C. Relationship Between Opinions on Growth Components An attempt was made to get an idea of how opinions on one growth sector were related to opinions on the other sectors. Correlation coefficients form the basis for comparison. Table V.2 l i s t s the correlation coefficients which were obtained from the s t a t i s t i c a l analysis. 49 TABLE V.2 GROWTH SECTOR CORRELATIONS Population Physical Growth Economic Activity Material Goods Consumption Economic Material Goods Population Physical Growth Activity Consumption 1.00 .58 .39 .26 1.00 .38 .50 1.00 .40 1.00 No revealing pattern seems to emerge from these correlations. One suggestion for interpretation may be made; that i s that the correlations are low enough to lead to the conclusion that "growth" i s not thought of as a single phenomenon, and that the separate components as defined here are perceived and evaluated individually. D. Interpretation of Opinions on Growth Except for the material included in the questionnaire to test the hypothesis, this research did not provide any data which would aid in interpretation of opinions on growth. For example, no questions were asked as to the reasons which respondents had for desiring or rejecting further growth. The explanation of the no-growth phenomenon offered by those involved with the Livable Region Program i s included 50 here for purposes of discussion. The authors of A Report on L i v a b i l i t y " ^ readily acknowledge that the strongest feelings about growth come from what people have experienced; in other words, changes or threats of change in his own neighborhood are the most salient features of growth in the mind of the individual expressing no-growth feelings. The term "growth" was often used to summarize a l l the unpleasant changes in the environment. Many things of importance to people are perceived as being threatened by growth in it s present form—including the natural environment, clean a i r and water, maintenance of suburban residential densities, preservation of historic places and communities of a scale where personal involvement is possible. The speed with which many of these desirable amenities are transformed no doubt contributes to the feeling people have that growth i s getting out of control. The interpretation given by GVRD to the no-growth phenomenon i s that these anti-growth sentiments contrast with the more traditional view that growth means progress, that we should concentrate on keeping the community attractive to develop-ment. This view is s t i l l held by a minority of persons...who say growth is inevitable...but far more say 'no more'...^^ The findings of this research do not reveal such overwhelming support for no-growth as the Livable Region Program suggests. This i s particularly true for economic growth. The Livable Region Program did not make clear distinctions between the various aspects of growth, although i t i s probably true that most of the comments made by citizens 51 were directed toward the population and physical components of growth. It is l i k e l y that sample differences contributed to the discrepancy in assessment of the extent of no-growth feelings: the Livable Region Program's sample consisted primarily of suburban residents (i.e. those livi n g on the outskirts of Vancouver) who were, moreover, mostly homeowners, whereas my sample were not necessarily homeowners, and a l l were residents of Vancouver proper. Thus, since they are physically removed from a lot of the growth which is taking place in Greater Vancouver, they are l i k e l y to be less aware of and less concerned about the loss of rural amenities as urbanization proceeds up the Fraser Valley. In addition, the method used to discover citizen opinions was probably a factor in the diff e r e n t i a l results. The dynamics of a public meeting (which the Livable Region Program employed) can encourage participants to change their opinion, or to express an opinion more vehemently i f they are supported by others in the group. This i s not to suggest that the opinions are invalid, only that the consensus and vehemence which appeared to exist may be exaggerated due to the circumstances. Taking this into account, then, the proportion of respondents in my study who favored no-growth is probably a conservative estimation; no encouragement was given to express this opinion, and i t i s probably true that, i f a distinction i s made between population and physical growth, as opposed to economic growth, a larger number of respondents would have chosen an anti-growth response i f a suggestion had been made as to why they should do so. This insight raises an interesting question as to the real 52 nature of no-growth opinions. That i s , what do those who say "no more growth" really want? Is the wish for no-growth s t r i c t l y a negative reaction to the undesirable side-effects of growth as we know i t today? To extend this speculation further, perhaps i t is true to say that i f we could have growth and control pollution, i f we could continue to urbanize and make our urban structure of a higher quality, and so forth, then citizens might in fact be in favor of more growth. This may be the case, but there i s no way of establishing this with the data available. I would suggest, however, that i f no-growth i s really just "second best", a refusal to accept the negative trade-offs associated with growth, then i t ' s not really genuine at a l l ; desire for no-growth should stem also from the recognition that further growth (particularly material growth) is in many ways unnecessary. Where there is a recognition that the quantitative and material needs of the society have been largely satisfied, then "no-growth" becomes, in effect, a positive desire for more qualitative kinds of growth—an active interest in pursuing other goals, and not simply a reaction to a s t i l l -cherished dream which has got out of hand. Formulation of the hypothesis, which w i l l be tested in the next chapter, was an attempt to discover i f desire for different social goals, as inferred from the espousal of values contrary to those which encourage growth, was associated with the no-growth phenomenon. CHAPTER SIX RESULTS II: HYPOTHESIS VERIFICATION A. Results The correlation coefficients which resulted from s t a t i s t i c a l analysis of each value score with each growth score are shown in Table VI.1. TABLE VI.1 COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATION BETWEEN VALUE SCORES AND GROWTH SCORES (Concept of Progress) (Man in Nature) (Consumption Preferences) Value I Value II Value III Population Growth Score Physical Growth Score Economic Growth Score Material Consumption Score Total Growth Score Material-Economic Growth Score .29 .46 .44 .60 .60 .63 .30 .49 .36 .62 .60 .59 .20 .39 .33 .54 .49 .52 54 Accepting a correlation coefficient of .16 as being significantly different from chance at the .05 level (based on a sample size of 150), then i t is clear that there exists a highly significant relationship between a respondent's value predispositions and his opinions on the growth of Greater Vancouver. On the basis of these figures, i t i s safe to say that higher scores on the value scales (indicating a preference for non-traditional values) are most often associated with higher scores on the growth indices (indicating an anti-growth bias) as well. Conversely, individuals who, by agreement with traditional values, obtained lower scores on the value scales, are on the whole more in favor of continued growth as well. Note that the strength of the relationship varies quite a l o t , depending on the particular value scale and growth index involved. The strongest relationship i s that between the combined material-economic growth orientation and concept of progress, which suggests, quite logically, that interpretation of progress in technological terms i s strongly associated with desire for more material goods and economic activity. On the other hand, the weakest relationship appears to be that between preference for consumption of material goods and total growth orientation, although the correlation obtained here i s significant nonetheless. The high correlation coefficients obtained suggest that the hypothesized relationship actually exists, and that i t is consistently in the predicted direction. But, by i t s e l f , this does not yield information as to the predictive strength of the relationship. The 55 question may be asked, what is the actual relationship between the phenomena being observed? In other words, to what extent do these phenomena co-exist in reality? The standard manipulation used to quantify the degree of coincidence between two phenomena is to derive the percentage overlap by squaring the correlation coefficient. This procedure applied here yields the figures in Table VI.2. TABLE VI.2 PERCENTAGE OVERLAP BETWEEN GROWTH BIASES AND VALUE ORIENTATIONS (Concept of Progress) (Man in Nature) (Consumption Preferences) Population Growth Score Physical Growth Score Economic Growth Score Material Consumption Score Total Growth Score Material-Economic Growth Score Value I Value II 8% 21% 19% 36% 36% 40% 9% 24% 13% 38% 36% 35% Value III 4% 15% 11% 29% 24% 27% While these figures are nowhere near 100%, they do nonetheless indicate 56 an appreciable level of strength of prediction in most of the relation-ships in question. Note that the squaring procedure causes the level of overlap to drop more rapidly than the correlation coefficient, and to approach zero with the minimum significant correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient of .40, or 16% overlap, can be considered adequate for predictive purposes. If this i s used as a criterion, then i t i s clear that the population growth score does not overlap with the value orientations to an acceptable degree. In effect, these figures denote the percentage of one phenomenon that can be accounted for by the other, and for these data most of the percentages are high. This does not imply a causal connection, however, and speculation on whether the relationship i s in fact a causal one w i l l not be attempted here. B. Discussion of Results It i s interesting that three of the six growth indices obtain a noticeably higher level of correlation with the value scales than do the other three. The material consumption index of growth clearly shows a more reliable relationship to the value scales than do the other three growth components and, approached from the other side, the population index i s undoubtedly the growth sector with the least reliable relationships. What is inferred from this i s that being against population growth does not necessarily imply adherence to non-traditional values, whereas being against material growth i s much more l i k e l y to 57 involve value change. It was suggested earlier that feelings of no-growth in terms of population increase may be just a negative reaction to threats of change to valued amenities, such as low densities. Use of more material goods, on the other hand, i s probably not perceived by most people as leading to environmental deterioration or threats to valued amenities and, therefore, a no-growth stance in terms of material goods is much more l i k e l y to be based on an actual rejection of extraneous material consumption and, at the same time, a positive desire for alternate personal goals. To carry speculation on the meaning of the population correlations a step further, an intuitive impression noted during the interviewing should be mentioned. This is that being against population growth was not meaningfully associated with any of the other growth opinions or values being investigated, whereas being in favor of population growth almost always seemed to be associated with pro-growth feelings on the other growth sectors as well and, most often, with traditional value orientations. Although the analysis undertaken cannot support such an interpretation, this distinction i s probably the basis for what l i t t l e overlap there i s between stance on population growth and value orientation. It i s interesting to speculate on the basis for the overlap between a particular growth sector and the value scale with which i t correlates most highly. For example, a high correlation was shown between opinions on growth of the built-up area (physical growth) and the"man in nature" value scale (II). Since expansion of the built-up area frequently 58 involves destruction of the natural environment, i t can be seen that, theoretically at least, where a trade-off between increasing physical growth and preservation of the natural environment is resolved in favor of the former, i t is usually at the expense of the latter. In this sense, then, the more one is in favor of physical growth, the less one can be concerned about preservation of the natural environment. The data substantiates that this seems to be the case, and this i s in fact the connection on which the hypothesis was based. One comment can be made regarding the coding of responses to the question on material goods consumption. It is my feeling in retrospect that the three options provided on the questionnaire do not constitute an equal-interval scale, in the sense that preference for use of the same amount of material goods i s a truly middle position on an abstract scale measuring the importance of material goods to an individual. It would seem that the choice between using more material goods versus using the same amount of material goods is not really a reflection of orientation toward materialism as much as i t i s , for example, a reflection of the respondent's economic status. The meaningful distinction i s between choice of the f i r s t two options as opposed to preference for use of fewer material goods. It would have been of some value to take this distinction into account when coding, although not having done so could only mean that higher correlations are obscured, and not that actual correlations obtained are a r t i f i c i a l l y high. To sum up, a comment may be made as to the significance of the two cumulative growth indices, represented by the total growth score and 59 the material-economic growth score. These, along with the material consumption score, were the most salient growth measurements in terms of the hypothesis. Why should this be so, when the total score, for example, is simply an unweighted aggregation of the four separate growth sectors—three of which obtained considerably lower correlations with the value scales? This suggests that the t o t a l index may be, by i t s e l f , the best overall indicator of disposition to favor growth. Particular cominations of "pro", "anti", and "don't know" lose their importance, and the measure of strength of this disposition becomes the total number of "pros" and "antis". Possibly this i s because the range of scores (from 4 - 12) for the total index i s so much greater than, the range for any of the component indices (from 1 - 3 ) , and thereby finer distinctions are made between respondents' opinions. There is thus a greater po s s i b i l i t y of accurately measuring intensity of opinion. If the hypothesized relationship between growth orientation and value dispositions is a valid one, then the existence of this relationship w i l l be shown more decisively where the growth orientations and value dispositions are measured accurately. For the same reason, i t was important to have a large number of attitude statements (twenty per scale) to measure value biases: each statement by i t s e l f is not a perfect measure, but a pattern can emerge from twenty or so estimations. C. Content Validity of the Value Scales Recall from Chapter Four the content v a l i d i t y technique which 60 was employed in the pre-test to verify that the attitude statements grouped together consistently e l i c i t similar responses from respondents. Forty-nine of the sixty-one attitude statements on the questionnaire were shown to be valid on the basis of the pre-test analysis. With a big increase in sample size, however, and the addition of a dozen previously untested attitude statements, the pre-test val i d i t y of the items may not have been maintained in the f i n a l data. Appendix E documents the results of the content vali d i t y check in two ways: f i r s t , attitude statements are l i s t e d by scale, so that a l l the statements which correlate significantly with a scale are shown in rank order in that scale's column; second, each statement is l i s t e d by number on the. questionnaire, showing the correlation coefficient obtained with the value scale with which i t correlates best. To summarize these results, i t can be observed that (1) a l l attitude statements correlate with at least one scale (and usually a l l three scales) beyond .16, which is the required .05 significance value; and (2) the range of acceptable correlations is from .16 to .80, although a l l but fifteen of the attitude statements correlate with the assigned scale above .45, which is a very high level of correlation, Note also that, although a l l but eight attitude statements correlated best with the value scale with which they had been scored, the correlations obtained with either or both of the other two scales are usually not a great deal lower than this. This suggests that the three value orientations defined are not a l l that different from one another, or at least that they can be measured with the same testing items. The question of how 61 distinctive the value scales are was approached with further analysis, which w i l l be described in Chapter Seven. D. Demographic Correlations Demographic variables were included in the analysis primarily to ensure that the sample was f a i r l y well balanced according to the c r i t e r i a established. Correlation of growth scores and value scores with these variables i s not particularly important in relation to hypothesis testing, but i t i s interesting to note to what extent personal characteristics are associated with the values and opinions being measured. Table VI.3 shows the correlation coefficients obtained. TABLE VI.3 DEMOGRAPHIC CORRELATIONS Sex Age Education Language East or West Population Growth Score Physical Growth Score Economic Growth Score Material Consumptioi Score Total Growth Score Material-Economic Growth Score Value I Value II Value III -.08 -.19 -.02 -.13 -.10 -.04 -.14 -.16 -.19 -.08 -.19 -.22 -.21 -.27 -.25 -.38 -.42 -.39 .05 .24 .20 .32 .29 .33 .47 .48 .42 .01 -.13 .00 .08 -.07 -.05 -.02 -.14 .02 -.02 •,14 -.08 -.22 -.16 -.20 -.26 -.30 -.26 62 Correlations on the basis of sex and language are generally of t r i v i a l significance or no significance at a l l . The age and education variables, however, have proven significant in the direction anticipated: younger and better-educated respondents have significantly higher scores on a l l counts. The east-west variable correlates significantly with scale scores as well, but inasmuch as this variable i s a rather crude and insensitive one (recall discussion in Chapter Four), possibly the differences are really just camouflaged differences in education level (for example), since the west side does tend to be more highly educated (-.41). A l l of these variables, i n fact, probably interact with each other to a considerable extent, so that not too much should be made out of any one piece of information. Suffice i t to say that younger and better-educated respondents tend to be both less traditional in their value orientations, and more anti-growth as well. -CHAPTER SEVEN REFINEMENT OF THE MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUE It can be observed from Appendix E that there are large differences in the content validity of the sixty-one attitude statements. While a l l are s t a t i s t i c a l l y significant correlations, the marginal coefficients obtained with a few of the statements confirms the impression I had when interviewing that these items are too vague to be of much use in measuring the value orientations. This raises a question as to whether the statements with low content vali d i t y perhaps had a detrimental effect on the validity of the scale as a whole. As an experiment, the fifteen Arbitrary) attitude statements which were shown to be the least valid measures, were deleted from the scale scores to determine the effect this would have on the distinctiveness of the scales. Appendix F l i s t s these items. To summarize the changes in correlation which occurred between each of the remaining forty-six statements and the scale scores, the following points are pertinent: 1. the content validity of the attitude statements, as measured by their correlation with the score of the value scale to which they had been assigned, was improved in 31 cases, stayed the same in 9 cases, and was decreased in 6 cases. 64 2. the correlation coefficients obtained between each statement and the other two value scores was improved in 8 cases, Stayed the same in 6 cases, and was decreased in 29 cases. Clearly, then, removal of the least valid attitude statements had the effect of creating more unique scales, composed of items which relate more to each other, and less to components of the other scales. Further-more, these deletions had no significant effect on the correlation coefficients obtained between the value scales and the growth indices. It appears that, although refinement of the value scales did not result in greater support for the hypothesis, i t would be worthwhile for future research of this nature to select attitude statements more rigorously, by means of the content v a l i d i t y tests, prior to scale construction. Correlations obtained from the analysis are bound to be more useful i f one can say with accuracy just what i t i s that's being correlated. Methodical scrutiny of the inter-correlations between the individual attitude statements revealed that a small number of the statements correlated with each other very highly (.30 or higher), and at the same time, this group correlated at a much lower level (statement by statement) with another small cluster of statements which have high inter-correlations. What this means i s that, from the available pool of sixty-one attitude statements, five core items from scale I and eight from scale II were found to be the most valid and unique measures of the related values. These are shown in Table VII.l. 65 TABLE VII.l CORE ATTITUDE STATEMENTS FOR IMPROVED VALUE SCALES Value I: Concept of Progress 21. Our society has progressed a lot in the last century or so. 58. If a better "mousetrap" can be b u i l t , then i t should be bu i l t . 64. Jet air travel i s one of the great advances of our society. 65. We are fortunate in having more material advantages than our parents had. 67. You can't stop progress. Value II; Man in Nature 13. Wilderness areas would serve the public better i f they were provided with adequate auto access, commercial f a c i l i t i e s and t r a i l e r camps. 26. Gullies and ravines can sometimes be useful for the disposal of domestic refuse. 32. Preservation of wilderness areas is not particularly important where these are not accessible for enjoyment by the public. 42. A community whose population is increasing i s probably more progressive than one whose population is constant. 48. Pollution of a river in an unpopulated area is not as bad as pollution of a river near a town. 51. A beach or park is of l i t t l e value i f the public can't drive to i t . 61. Wherever possible swamps should be drained to make them useful for construction. 66 There are too few statements on these revised scales for purposes of testing the hypothesis; the reason for including them here i s to suggest that construction of additional, similar items would produce scales which more accurately depict the particular value orientations. The "fuzziness" of the original scales employed to test the hypothesis was not detrimental to the goal of showing that value orientations are related to growth biases, although i f i t was of importance to know precisely what the value orientations are, then the scales should be purified as suggested. CHAPTER EIGHT CONCLUSION A. Overview of Results The discussion in this work has ranged over a variety of topics: from the hypothesis of a relationship between attitude toward growth and personal values, through a discussion of the growth ethic in a historical and a future context, including empirical investigation of citizen opinions of growth. The suggestion was made that the structural transition to post-industrialism (of which a redirection of the growth ethic was shown to be an important part) requires an appropriate shift in cultural values as well, in order to f a c i l i t a t e adjustment to the new conditions. This work was an attempt to support this contention by examining one aspect of the transition—redirection of growth—in relation to the values which support i t . The hypothesized relationship was shown to exist. To this extent, then, i t may be concluded that an individual's conception of what constitutes progress, his view of man in relationship to the natural environment, and the extent of preference for material consumption, are associated with disposition to favor or reject further growth. Although the data i s not sufficiently extensive to warrant broad generalization, a suggestion w i l l nonetheless be offered as to the meaning 68 of the findings. The interpretation placed on these findings is that vir u t a l l y a l l major social goals and environmental attitudes are closely interrelated with basic assumptions and values regarding the nature of man and the goals of human existence. The implication here is that shifts in the goal preferences of the society rest upon attendant shifts in the supportive value structure. Two examples w i l l i l l u s t r a t e the relevance of this insight to contemporary problems (other than growth). Preference for use of the private automobile and for single family houses is deeply ingrained in North American culture. From a layman's point of view this i s not a "problem", and this question i s not the debatable point here. But i f i t i s anticipated that, in the future, continuing emphasis on this mode of transport and this housing style w i l l entail increasingly unacceptable consequences for the quality of urban development, for example, then some means of encouraging shifts in consumption preferences w i l l be necessary. A s t r i c t l y functional view of either cars or houses is l i k e l y to overlook the extent to which these assets f u l f i l l non-material needs as well; an automobile is not simply a means of transport, and a house is more than just a place to l i v e . And, as with growth, desire for them w i l l not l i k e l y be diverted un t i l an alternative value framework is adopted which w i l l support the shift in consumption preferences to more appropriate modes. Just what values are involved, and in what direction they should be shifted, i s a matter for social science research. But the implications for planning are immediate and readily discernable. 69 B. Implications for Planning On the basis of the conclusions derived from this work, and in light of the impending transformation of the industrial structure of our society (as discussed in Chapter Three), i t is maintained here that the planning profession has a responsibility to become actively involved in the process of social change, for the purpose of guiding the society towards an•acceptable future. This involves two things: f i r s t , more future-oriented planning, and second, acceptance of planning as a p o l i t i c a l activity. Amplification of this w i l l involve, f i r s t , an examination of the adequacy of the futurist tradition as the planning profession has traditionally interpreted this to be. Planning is most necessary where the future w i l l d i f f e r greatly from the past. There are many bases for the prediction that future society w i l l differ radically from what we know today. Yet this creates a dilemma for the planner: rapid change makes planning more necessary and, at the same time, more d i f f i c u l t , since the future cannot be planned on the basis of the present. On what basis, then, should future plans be made? Planners have traditionally used a variety of forecasting techniques and extrapolative methods to construct plans for the future. Characteristically, our long-range plans and predictions have been based on present trends and past performance of whatever system i s under review. This process is essentially looking toward the future in the image of the past. It may be said that city planning has never really been oriented to future change. Despite the long range horizons and the Utopian 70 traditions that have marked this f i e l d . . . i t has been guided by a future-directed ideology that has looked backwards. co J O Extrapolation of past trends is no longer adequate to the task of planning for the future, because extrapolation implies that past determinants of trends w i l l persist into the future, whereas i t i s very l i k e l y that they w i l l not. Similarly, i t cannot be assumed, as in the past, that social organization and social objectives w i l l remain stable during the time period under review, or that there is a society-59 wide consensus on development goals. Projections for the future w i l l have to take into account the precedence of qualitative over quantitative change. This w i l l require innovative solutions to many of our current problems. To avoid using the past as a guideline for these changes requires that we have (1) more and better information; (2) better methodologies and techniques of forecasting and prediction; and (3) new values on which to construct models of alternative futures. The f i r s t two requirements are recognized to a certain extent, and steady progress is being made in expanding the knowledge base and predictive techniques relevant to the planning process. With regard to the third requirement, however, planning which i s both anticipative and encouraging of alternate values, is seldom done. The argument made above can be extended further: anticipative planning by i t s e l f is not enough. It i s also necessary for the planner to "dirty his hands in pushing for or selling the plan to which he i s committed by influencing the values, biases, etc. of those who w i l l select 71 the plan to be implemented". Irrespective of whether or not i t i s a question of selling a particular plan, the contention made here is that the planning profession has a responsibility to encourage a questioning attitude toward current assumptions and values (many of which, as we have seen, are responsible for some of the problems that are faced now), and to suggest and promote alternate values which would f a c i l i t a t e adoption of innovative solutions to problems. Traditionally, i t has been considered desirable for the planner 0 to maintain a "value-neutral" position in professional decision-making and dealings with the public. This posture of neutrality was compatible with a professional role which saw the planner as an "expert", with technical knowledge which could be divorced from social processes and value judgments. The values and goals by which decisions were made and plans were formulated were, in theory at least, those of the client group, usually by way of their p o l i t i c a l representatives. It i s a matter of debate as to whether this supposed value-neutrality of planners has at any time been either accurate or appropriate. In any case, there are many reasons why such a professional role i s inadequate to the needs of planning today. The problems we face at this point are not technical problems related to efficiency needs, rather they are p o l i t i c a l problems pertaining to distribution of benefits and power to make decisions. The public interest which the planner i s supposed to serve consists of ever more diverse and fluctuating sub-groups, many of whose "interests" the planner is not in a position to know. 72 Getting the planner away from the task of designing projects, and into the larger task of evaluating policies and proposing innovative alternatives, requires that he assume an active responsibility for influencing (but not dictating) the goals and values of the society. The impetus for social change w i l l hopefully be other than sheer necessity, and i t is believed that the planner i s in a good position professionally to stimulate interest i n and awareness of a wide variety of problems and issues. Increasingly^the public w i l l take on a greater role in decision-making, and i t is to this amorphous public that the planner has a direct responsibility to provide information and civic education. Doing this properly requires that discussion and continuous evaluation of values and goals be a necessary input into the decision-maing process. For, in the long run, social change, and not technical solutions, i s required to solve, urban problems. 73 FOOTNOTES ''"Willis Harman, "Alternate Futures and Habitability," Fields  Within Fields...Within Fields, Vol. 3, No. 1 (1970), pp. 23-24. 2 Use of this term was borrowed from Herman Daly, "Toward a Stationary-State Economy," in Patient Earth, ed. by John Harte and John Socolow (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1971). 3 Max Weber, The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, as adapted by Eric T r i s t , The Relation of Welfare and Development in the  Transition to Post Industrialism (Socio-Technical Systems Division, Western Management Science Institute, UCLA, 1968), Appendix VII, pp. 58-59. 4 E.D. Eddy, Colleges for our Land and Time (1957), as quoted in V. Potter, Bioethics, Bridge to the Future (Englewood C l i f f s : Prentice Hall, 1971), p. 44. 1970). ^Geoffrey Vickers, Freedom in a Rocking Boat (London: Allen Lane, ^Daly, op. c i t . , p. 241. 7Vickers (1970), op c i t . , p. 22. g Daly, op. c i t . , p. 239. 9 David Reisman, "Work and Leisure in Post-Industrial Society," in Mass Leisure, ed. by Rolf Meyersohn and Eric Larrabee (Glencoe, I l l i n o i s : Free Press, 1958), p. 366. 1 0Vickers (1970), op_. ext., p. 24. "'""'"For example, see Ren£ Dubos, "The Despairing Optimist," in American Scholar, Vol. 40, 1970 (Summer and Winter); Raymond Kohn, ed., Environmental "Education", published by the U.S. National Commission for UNESCO (Washington, 1971); Donella Meadows, et a l , The Limits to Growth, (New York: Potomac Associates, 1972). 1 2Daly, op_. c i t . , p. 232. 74 "^Meadows, O J J. c i t . . 1 4 I b i d . 15 This conclusion i s supported by Dubos, op.cit. ; Meadows, op_. c i t . and Vickers (1970), op_. c i t . 16 Dubos, op_. ext., p. 390. 1 7As quoted in Kohn, op_. c i t . , p. 43. 18 Daly, op_. c i t . , p. 237. 19 See, for example, Daly, op_. c i t . ; also John Maddox, The Doomsday Syndrome (London: Macmillan, 1972). 2 0Daly, op_. c i t . , p. 238. 21 Bertram Gross, "The City of Man: A Social Systems Reckoning," in Environment for Man: The Next F i f t y Years, ed. by Ewald, W.R. (Indiana University Press, 1967). 22 Melvin Webber, Planning in an Environment of Change (Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley, 1969), p. 183. 23 Eric T r i s t , "Urban North America - the Challenge of the Next Thirty Years," in Plan Canada, Vol. 10, No. 3 (1970). 24„ Gross, o£. c i t . 25 Webber, op. c i t . , p. 179. 2 6 A l v i n Toffler, Future Shock (New York: Random House, 1970). 2 7 T r i s t (1968), op. c i t . , p. 37. 28 Maddox, op_. c i t . , p. 200. 29 T r i s t (1970), op_. c i t . , p. 7. 75 3 0 I b i d . 31 Ibid., p. 9. 32 Reisman, op_. c i t . , p. 375. 33 Webber, op_. c i t . , p. 185. 3 4 T r i s t (1970), op_. c i t . , p. 8. Gross, o_p_. c i t . 3fi T r i s t (1970), bp_. c i t . , p. 6. 37 Webber, op. c i t . , p. 184. Tris t (1970), op_. c i t . , p. 11. 39 Michel Chevalier, Social Science and Water Management: A Planning  Strategy (Policy and Planning Branch, Dept. of Energy, Mines and Resources, Ottawa, 1969). 40„ .„ • Gross, op_. c i t . ^Hjebber, op_. c i t . , p. 180. 4 2 I b i d . , p. 181. Willis Harman, "Key Choices of the Next Two Decades," in Fields  Within Fields...Within Fields, Vol. 5, No. 1 (1972), p. 30. 44 Ibid., p. 26. 4 5 T r i s t (1970), op. c i t . , p. 5. 4 ^ l b i d . , p. 12. Ibid. 4 8 T r i s t (1970), op_. c i t . ;;Webber, op. c i t . 76 49 Harman (1972), op_. c i t . ; Reisman, op. c i t . "^Reisman, op_. c i t . ; Webber, op_. c i t . ''"'"Gross, op_. c i t . ; Webber, op_. c i t . 52 Harman (1972), op_. c i t . 53 Reisman, op_. c i t . ; Vickers (1970), op_. c i t . 54 Tr i s t (1968), op_. c i t . , p. 21. "*~*McKechnie, George. "Measuring Environmental Disposition with the Environmental Response Inventory." Edra II. (Pittsburgh: 1970). "^Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , A Report on L i v a b i l i t y (Vancouver, 1972), p. 4. "^Ibid. , p. 5. 58 Webber, op_. c i t . 5 9 I b i d . ^Ronald Singer, "The Planner as Value-Neutral: A Useless Myth?" Plan Canada, Vol. 11, No. 2 (1970), p. 112. 77 BIBLIOGRAPHY Baler, K. and Reschner, N. (eds.)- Values and the Future. New York: ' Free Press, 1969. B r i t t , S.H. Psychological Experiments in Consumer Behavior. New York: Wiley, 1970. Campbell, D.T. and Fiske, D.W. "Convergent and Discriminant Validation by the Multitrait-Multimethod Matr ix.' 1 Readings in Attitude  Theory and Measurement. Fishbein, Martin (ed.). New York: Wiley, 1967. pp. 282-289. Chevalier, Michel. Social Science and Water Management: A Planning  Strategy. Policy and Planning Branch, Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Ottawa, 1969. Daly, Herman. "Toward A Stationery-State Economy." Patient Earth. Harte, John and Socolow, John (eds). New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc. 1971. pp. 226-244. Dubos, Rene*. "The Despairing Optimist." American Scholar, Vol. 40, 1971 (Summer), pp. 389-394 and Vol. 40, 1971 (Winter), pp. 70-71. Forrester, Jay W. World Dynamics. Cambridge: Wright-Allen Press, 1971. Gabor, Dennis. Innovations: Scientific, Technological, and Social. London: Oxford University Press, 1970. Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t . A Report on L i v a b i l i t y . Vancouver 1972. p. 5. Gross, Bertram. "The City of Man: A Social Systems Reckoning." Environment  for Man: The Next F i f t y Years. Ewald, W.R. (ed.) Indiana: University Press, 1967. Harman, W i l l i s . "Alternate Futures and Habitability." Fields Within Fields  ...Within Fields. The World Institute Council,Vol. 3, No.l, 1970. . "Key Choices of the Next Two Decades." Fields Within Fields...Within Fields. The World Institute Council, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1972. pp. 82-92. Kohn, Raymond, (ed.). Environmental "Education". Published by the U.S. National Commission for UNESCO, Washington, 1971. Leopold, Aldo. "Ethos, Ecos, and Ethics." The Subversive Science. Shepard, Paul and McKinley, Daniel (eds,). Boston: Houghton M i f f l i n Company, 1969. pp. 402-415. Maddox, John. The Doomsday Syndrome. London: Macmillan, 1972. 78 McKechnie, George. "Measuring Environmental Disposition with the Environmental Response Inventory." Edra II. Proceedings of the ' 2nd Annual Environmental Design Research Association Conference, Archea, John & Eastman, Charles (eds). Pittsburgh, October 1970. pp.320-Meadows, Donella, et. a l . . The Limits to Growth. New York: Potomac Associates, 1972. P h i l l i p s , Bernard. Social Research: Strategy and Tactics. New York: Macmillan, 1971. Potter, Van Reusselaer. Bioethics, Bridge to the Future. Englewood C l i f f s , N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1971. Reisman, David. "Work and Leisure in Post-Industrial Society." Mass  Leisure. Larrabee, Eric and Meyersohn, Rolf, eds. Glencoe, I l l i n o i s : Free Press, 1958. pp. 363-389. Shorter, Edward. "Industrial Society in Trouble: Some Recent Views." American Scholar Vol. 40, 1971 (Spring), pp. 330-348. Singer, Ronald. "The Planner as Value-Neutral: A Useless Myth?" Plan  Canada. Vol. 11. No. 2. 1970. pp. 107-113. Toffler, Alvin. Future Shock. New York: Random House, 1970. T r i s t , Eric. The Relation of Welfare and Development in the Transition  to Post-Industrialism. Socio-Technical Systems Division, Western Management Science Institute, UCLA, 1968. _____ . "Urban North America - The Challenge 6f the Next Thirty Years." Plan Canada. Vol. 10, No. 3, 1970. pp, 4-20. University of Victoria Biology Club, Environment Tomorrow, Vol. 1, No. 4, (Autumn), 1971. Vickers, Geoffrey. Value Systems and Social Process. London: Tavistock Publications, 1968. . Freedom in a Rocking Boat. London: Allen Lane, 1970. Webber, Melvin. Planning in an Environment of Change. Institute of Urban Change. University of California, Berkeley, 1969. ^ APPENDICES APPENDIX A 81 APPENDIX A Changes in Emphasis of S o c i a l Patterns i n the T r a n s i t i o n to Post-Industrialism" Type From Towards C u l t u r a l values achievement s e l f - a c t u a l i z a t i o n s e l f - c o n t r o l s elf-expression independence inter-dependence endurance of d i s t r e s s capacity f o r joy Organizational mechanistic forms organic forms philosophies competitive r e l a t i o n s c o l l a b o r a t i v e r e l a t i o n s separate objectives linked objectives own resources regarded own resources regarded as owned absolutely also as society's E c o l o g i c a l responsive to c r i s i s a n t i c i p a t i v e of c r i s i s s t r a t e g i e s s p e c i f i c measures comprehensive measures requ i r i n g consent req u i r i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n short planning horizon long planning horizon damping c o n f l i c t confronting c o n f l i c t d e t a i l e d c e n t r a l c o n t r o l generalized c e n t r a l c o n t r o l small l o c a l government enlarged l o c a l government units units standardized admini- innovative administration s t r a t i o n separate services co-ordinated services from T r i s t (1970). See Bibliography for complete reference. APPENDIX B 83 APPENDIX B The Questionnaire Please indicate your answer to the following questions. 1. In your estimation is the population of Greater Vancouver a) increasing b) staying the same c) decreasing 2. In your opinion is this a) desirable b) undesirable C ) don't know 3. Do you believe that the built-up area of Greater Vancouver is a) expanding b) staying the same c) decreasing 4. Do you feel this is a) desirable b) undesirable c) don 11 know 5. To your knowledge is the amount of economic activity taking place in Vancouver a) increasing b) staying the same c) declining 84 6. In your opinion is this a) desirable b) undesirable c) don't know Which alternative do you feel is on (For each alternative please assume average person.) the whole the best for Canadians? we are talking in terms of the a) to obtain more of the material goods which we have today b) to continue to use the same amount of material goods that we use today c) to use fewer material goods than we use today The following items are statements of opinion, some of which you w i l l agree with and others of which you w i l l disagree with. Please read each one carefully and then determine your assessment of the statement according to the following scale: 1) strongly agree 2) agree 3) no opinion 4) disagree 5) strongly disagree 8. Sooner or later, as t r a f f i c volume increases, most two-lane roads should become four-lane roadways. 9. Natural resources are for man's benefit. 10. I would rather go for a walk than watch television. 11. The opportunity for most people in our society to own their own car is an indication that we are more advanced than societies where such widespread private car ownership is not possible. 12. Even i f building a dam on a particular site would cause ecological disruption, i t should be built anyway i f the power is really needed. 85 13. Wilderness areas would serve the public better i f they were provided with adequate auto access, commercial f a c i l i t i e s and t r a i l e r camps. 14. Minute rice i s bad food. 15. It would be fun to have a skidoo in the mountains. 16. A colour television i s a lot more desirable than a black and white television. 17. I would like to see more of my tax money spent i n support of a r t i s t s , l i b r a r i e s and musicians, and less spent on building new roads, 18. It would be fun to have a vacation i n Las Vegas. 19. It speaks well for our society that the average household i s able to have i t s own washer, dryer, vacuum cleaner, etc. 20. Going to a health spa.is one of the best ways to get exercise. 21. Our society has progressed a lot in the last century or so. .22.. I don't consider any plant to be a weed. 23. Br i t i s h Columbians should try to cut down on the amount of ele c t r i c i t y that they use in their homes. 24. I think i t ' s quite important that a person keep the lawn around his house cut short. 25. Metrecal and other diet foods are good things for the person who wants to lose weight to use. 26. Gullies and ravines can sometimes be useful for the disposal of domestic refuse. 27. Rising average incomes are a good indicator of the well-being of Canadians. 28. Watching television i s for me a pleasant passtime. 29. A person has the right to do what he wishes with any property that he owns. 30. I don't l i k e to see a wig on anyone except a person who is balded by disease. 31. Chemical f e r t i l i z e r s improve the quality of food. 86 3 2 . P r e s e r v a t i o n o f w i l d e r n e s s a r e a s i s n o t p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t whe re t h e s e a r e n o t a c c e s s i b l e f o r en j oymen t b y t h e p u b l i c . 3 3 . M a k i n g r a i n by a r t i f i c i a l l y s t i m u l a t i n g c l o u d s i s a b e n e f i c i a l t e c h n o l o g i c a l a d v a n c e . 3 4 . A d o p t i o n o f a g u a r a n t e e d a n n u a l i ncome f o r a l l C a n a d i a n s w o u l d b e a p r o g r e s s i v e m e a s u r e . 3 5 . Y o u c a n ' t change human n a t u r e . 3 6 . - D e o d o r a n t s a r e u n n e c e s s a r y . 3 7 . I d o n ' t l i k e t o e a t p r e p a r e d f r o z e n d i n n e r s . 3 8 . G i v e n enough t i m e , s c i e n c e w i l l s o l v e most human p r o b l e m s . 3 9 . W e l f a r e s h o u l d b e r e s t r i c t e d t o t h o s e who a r e i n c a p a b l e o f w o r k i n g . 4 0 . Where p e s t s a r e t r o u b l e s o m e , c r o p s s h o u l d b e p r o t e c t e d w i t h p e s t i c i d e s . 4 1 . P l a s t i c f l o w e r s c a n b r i g h t e n up a r o o m . 4 2 . A communi ty whose p o p u l a t i o n i s i n c r e a s i n g i s p r o b a b l y more p r o g r e s s i v e t h a n one whose p o p u l a t i o n i s c o n s t a n t . 4 3 . G o i n g t o t h e moon i s a s i g n o f t h e g r e a t n e s s o f A m e r i c a n s o c i e t y . 4 4 . M o d e r n c o m m u n i t i e s a r e p l a s t i c and u g l y . 4 5 . Any m i n i n g v e n t u r e w h i c h i s e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e s h o u l d be e n c o u r a g e d . 4 6 . Some o f t h e s y n t h e t i c C h r i s t m a s t r e e s you c a n b u y a r e as d e s i r a b l e a s r e a l t r e e s . 4 7 . A p e r s o n s h o u l d spend t h e t i m e and e f f o r t t o l o o k t h e i r b e s t . 4 8 . P o l l u t i o n o f a r i v e r i n an u n p o p u l a t e d a r e a i s n o t a s bad a s p o l l u t i o n o f a r i v e r n e a r a t o w n . 4 9 . I w o u l d r a t h e r camp i n a t e n t t h a n i n a t r a i l e r . 5 0 . The amount o f t a x e s w h i c h a p r o p o s e d d e v e l o p m e n t w i l l b r i n g i n i s an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f t h e p r o j e c t . 5 1 . A b e a c h o r a p a r k i s o f l i t t l e v a l u e i f t h e p u b l i c c a n ' t d r i v e t o i t . 5 2 . I p r e f e r a s t i c k - s h i f t c a r to one w i t h an a u t o m a t i c t r a n s m i s s i o n . 87 53. An electric can opener i s a desirable convenience to have in a kitchen. 54. It's alright to leave behind t i n cans when camping as long as they are buried in the ground. 55. Extension of welfare benefits could be disastrous for Canada. 56. For the average city-dweller, a power lawn mower i s a big improve-ment over a hand mower. 57. I would rather go to l i v e theatre than to a night club, 58. If a better "mousetrap" can be buil t , then i t should be buil t . 59. It's nice to have a new car every year or so. 60. Most women should shave their legs. 61. Wherever possible swamps should be drained to make them useful for construction. 62. I would rather have a canoe than a motor boat. 63. The best use for a piece of land can be determined by economic studies. 64. Jet ai r travel i s one of the great advances of our society. 65. We are fortunate in having more material advantages than our parents had. 66.. Welfare benefits should be given to a l l those in need, whether they are willing to work or not. 67. You can't stop progress. 68. A woman isn't properly dressed without her make-up on. The age and educational attainment of the respondent were determined by oral questions on completion of the written questionnaire. The respondent's sex, address, and native language were noted by the interviewer. APPENDIX C 89 APPENDIX C Location of Respondents by Address West Side Di s t r i c t Wast End Kitsilano Dunbar Point Grey South Cambie Street Address 1800 - 1900 Nelson 1800 Trafalgar 3000 West 3rd Ave. 3000-3100 West 7th Ave. 2900-3200 West 8th Ave. 2600-2700 West 11th Ave 2300-2400 West 13th Ave. 2300-2400 West 14th Ave. 2400-2500 West 18th Ave. 3600-3800 West 20th Ave. 4300 West 11th Ave. 500-700 West 50th Ave. 6600 Ti s d a l l Number of Respondents 11 56 19 8 9 Total 105 B. East Side Di s t r i c t Sunset Street Address 000-100 East 56th Ave. 000-100 East 57th Ave. 000-100 East 58th Ave. Number of Respondents 9 Grandview- Woodland v i c i n i t y Adanac and Victoria Drive 7 90 . . .cont'd East Side District Killarney Kingsway and Victoria Drive Mt. Pleasant Renfrew Heights Riley Park Street Address Number of Respondents 5800-5900 Lancaster 9 6000 Kerr 5800-6100 Rupert 3000 East 45th Ave. 2000 East 24th Ave. 2000 East 25th Ave. 2000 East 26th Ave. 2000 East 27th Ave. 2000 East 28th Ave. 400 East 20th Ave. 2700 Franklin 8 9 3 4700-5000 Quebec 9 Total 54 Location of Respondents by Map 1. U)ts4 £w<_ f—1 APPENDIX D 92 APPENDIX D Scale Assignment of A t t i t u d e Statements Value Scale I .(concept of progress) Value Scale I I (man i n nature) Value Scale I I I (consumption preferences 11 8 10 (-) 16 9 14 (-) 17 (-)*** 12 15 19 13 18 24 22 (-) 20 27 23 (-) 21 33* 25 28 34 (-) 26 30 (-) 35 29 37 (-) 36 (-) 31* 41 39 32 46 42 38* 47 43 40 49 (-) 55 44* (-) 52* (-) 56 45 53 58 48 57 (-) 60 50 59* 64* 51 62 (-) 65 54 68 66 (-) 61 67 63 19 items 21 items 21 items * items borrowed (some with modifications) from McKechnie's Environmental  Response Inventory. ** the a t t i t u d e statements are ref e r r e d to by t h e i r number on the questionnaire. *** negative sign denotes that the code number for the statement was reversed when scoring with the value scale. APPENDIX E 94 APPENDIX E Content Validity of Attitude Statements I. By Number on the Questionnaire Question # 8 10 Question Sooner or later, as t r a f f i c volumes increase, most two-lane roads should become four-lane roadways• Natural resources are for man's benefit. I would rather go for a walk than watch television. Scale with which i t correlates best  II II III Correlation coefficient .56 ,28 .43 11 12 The opportunity for most people in our society to own their own car ; i s an indication that we are more advanced than societies where such widespread car ownership i s not possible Even i f building a dam on a parti -cular site would cause ecological disruption, i t should be built anyway i f the power is really needed. II .60 .61 13 Wilderness areas would serve the public better i f they were provided with adequate auto access, commercial f a c i l t i e s and t r a i l e r camps. II ,62 14 Minute rice i s bad food. I l l .35 * not the scale with which the question was scored 95 Question # Question Scale with Correlation which i t coefficient correlates best  15 It would be fun to have a skidoo III .39 in the mountiains. 16 A colour television i s a lot more III* .38 desirable than a black and white television. 17 I would l i k e to see more of my tax I .55 money spent in support of ar t i s t s , l i b r a r i e s and musicians, and less spent on building new roads. 18 It would be fun to have a vacation III .60 in Las Vegas. 19 It speaks well for our society that I .61 the average household i s able to have i t s own washer, dryer, vacuum cleaner, etc. 20 Going to a health spa is one of the III .46 best ways to get exercise. 21 Our society has progressed a lot in I* .64 the last century or so. 22 I don't consider any plant to be a I* .28 weed. 23 British Columbians should try to II .30 cut down on the amount of e l e c t r i c i t y that they use in their homes. 24 I think i t ' s quite important that a I .71 person keep the lawn around his house cut short. 25 Metrecal and other diet foods are II .53 good things for the person who wants to lose weight to use. 26 Gullies and ravines can sometimes be II useful for the disposal of domestic refuse. .55 96 Question # Question Scale with which i t correlates best Correlation coefficient 27 Rising average incomes are a II* .49 good indicator of the well-being of Canadians. 28 Watching television is for me a III .50 pleasant passtime. 29 A person has the right to do what , 1 1 .53 he wishes with any property that he owns. 30 I don't l i k e to see a wig on anyone III .26 except a person who is balded by disease. 31 Chemical f e r t i l i z e r s improve the II .36 quality of food. 32 Preservation of wilderness areas i s II .68 not particularly important where these are not accessible by the public. 33 Making rain by a r t i f i c i a l l y stimu- II* .19 lating clouds i s a beneficial technological advance. 34 Adoption of a guaranteed annual income I .39 for a l l Canadians would be a progressive measure. 35 You can't change human nature. II* .25 36 Deodorants are unnecessary I ,39 37 I don't l i k e to eat prepared frozen III .51 dinners. 38 Given enough time, science w i l l solve II .46 most human problems. 39 Welfare should be restricted to those I .51 who are incapable of working. 97 Question # Question Scale with which i t correlates best Correlation coefficient 40 Where pests are troublesome, II .49 crops should be protected with pesticides. 41 Plastic flowers can brighten up a III .57 room. 42 A community whose population i s II* .62 increasing i s probably more progressive than one whose population i s constant. 43 Going to the moon i s a sign of the I .54 greatness of American society. 44 Modern communities are plastic and II .42 ugly. 45 Any mining venture which i s II .79 economically feasible should be encouraged. 46 Some of the synthetic Christmas III .60 trees you can buy are as desirable as real trees. 47 A person should spend the time and I* .57 effort to look their best. 48 Pollution of a river in an unpopulated II .62 area i s not as bad as pollution of a river near a town. 49 I would rather camp in a tent than III .57 in a t r a i l e r . 50 The amount of taxes which a proposed II .42 development w i l l bring in is an important factor in determining the desirability of the project. 51 A beach or a park i s of l i t t l e value II .71 i f the public can't drive to i t . 52 I prefer a stick-shift car to one with an automatic transmission. I l l .60 98 Question An electric can opener is a desirable convenience to have in a kitchen. Scale with which i t correlates best  III Correlation coefficient .58 It's a l l r i g h t to leave behind tin cans when camping as long as they are buried in the ground. Extension of welfare benefits could be disastrous for Canada. II .37 ,60 For the average city-dweller, a power lawn mower is a big improvement over a hand mower ,52 I would rather go to l i v e theatre •than to a night club. I l l If a better "mousetrap" can be buil t , I then i t should be buil t . .49 .63 It's nice to have a new car every y e a r l l l or so. .61 Most women should shave their legs. I Wherever possible swamps should be II drained to make them useful for construction. .46 .80 I would rather have a canoe than a motor boat. I l l ,59 The best use for a piece of land can be determined by economic studies. Jet air travel i s one of the great advances of our society. II .64 .62 We are fortunate to have more material I goods than our parents had. .54 99 Question # Question Scale with which i t correlates best Correlation coefficient 66 Welfare benefits should be given to a l l those in need, whether they are willing to work or not. 67 You can't stop progress 68 A woman isn't properly dressed without her make-up on. I III .56 .61 .59 II. By Scale* SCALE I SCALE II SCALE III Ques. # Correlation coefficient Ques. # Correlation coefficient Ques. # Correlation coefficient 24 .71 61 .80 61 .63 45 .68 45 .79 59 .6.1 61 .68 51 .71 45 .60 21 .64 32 .68 52 .60 58 .63 63 .64 18 .60 64 .62 42 .62 46 .60 19 .61 48 .62 62 .59 67 .61 13 .62 68 .59 63 .61 12 .61 - 53 .58 55 .60 24 .59 49 .57 11 .60 8 .56 41 .57 42 .57 19 .56 21 .55 47 .57 26 .55 24 .54 66 .56 43 .54 63 .53 8 .55 29 .53 58 .51 17 .55 25 .53 43 .51 13 .54 58 .52 37 .51 43 .54 53 .51 28 .50 68 .54 68 .51 17 .50 65 .54 49 .50 57 .49 56 .52 23 .50 8 .48 52 .51 51 .50 42 .48 If a question did not correlate to a scale at the .05 significance level (.16) i t was not li s t e d with that scale. 100 Ques. # Correlation Ques. # coefficient 39 .51- 21 51 .50 27 59 .49 40 12 .46 17 53 .46 56 60 .46 11 32 .45 59 48 .45 64 62 .44 67 18 .44 38 27 .44 62 25 .43 63 41 .43 55 38 .42 44 26 .42 47 20 .41 50 23 .41 20 40 .41 41 44 .41 46 49 .41 18 46 .40 37 29 .39 54 34 .39 31 36 .38 28 16 .35 39 37 .35 60 28 .29 36 57 .29 57 31 .23 10 35 .21 66 54 .21 22 15 .20 35 14 .19 14 9 .18 15 10 .18 34 16 33 Correlation Ques. # Correlation Coefficient coefficient .49 47 .48 .49 19 .47 .49 48 .47 .48 51 .47 .48 20 .46 .47 65 .46 .47 23 .46 .47 13 .45 .47 56 .45 .46 25 .43 .44 12 .42 .44 11 .41 .43 67 .41 .42 32 .39 .42 44 .39 .42 64 .39 .42 60 .38 .41 27 .35 .40 40 .35 .39 36 .34 .38 38 .34 .37 26 .33 .36 29 .33 .35 31 .33 .33 55 .31 .32 50 .28 .31 66 .27 .30 30 .26 .28 39 .26 .28 34 .25 .27 22 .21 .25 35 .16 .22 .22 .22 .19 .19 APPENDIX F 102 APPENDIX F * Attitude Statements Deleted From Scale I . From Scale II From Scale III 16 9 10 33 22 14 34 31 15 35 44 30 36 50 54 * l i s t e d by number on the questionnaire 

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