UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Simulation of cottage lot subdivision : a synthesis of social, economic and environmental concerns Chamber, Alan David 1971

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S I M U L A T I O N O F C O T T A G E L O T S U B D I V I S I O N : A S Y N T H E S I S O F S O C I A L , E C O N O M I C , A N D E N V I R O N M E N T A L C O N C E R N S by A L A N D A V I D C H A M B E R S B . S . F . , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1"964 M . F . , . D u k e U n i v e r s i t y , 1967 A T H E S I S S U B M I T T E D I N P A R T I A L F U L F I L M E N T O F T H E R E Q U I R E M E N T S F O R T H E D E G R E E O F D O C T O R O F P H I L O S O P H Y i n I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y S t u d i e s R e s o u r c e S c i e n c e C e n t r e We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g to the r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A M a r c h , 1971 I n p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a n a d v a n c e d d e g r e e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e a n d s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e H e a d o f my D e p a r t m e n t o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Alan D. Chambers j&R&Rtoagufcxctfc Resource Science Centre The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a V a n c o u v e r 8, C a n a d a D a t e 23 April 1971 A B S T R A C T C o n c e r n w i t h t h e i n a b i l i t y o f t r a d i t i o n a l m e a s u r e s o f v a l u e t o r e f l e c t e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y l e d to t h i s s e a r c h f o r a n o t h e r m e a s u r e t o b e u s e d i n t h e r a p i d l y d e v e l o p i n g G u l f I s l a n d s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . T h e m e a s u r e i d e n t i -f i e d , o u r s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e f o r c o t t a g e l o t s of v a r i o u s s i z e s , i s d e f i n e d m a t h e m a t i c a l l y a n d c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e m o r e t r a d i t i o n a l m e a s u r e s — d e v e l o p -m e n t c o s t a n d m a r k e t p r i c e . A s e t o f 3 5 m m c o l o u r s l i d e s , a l l a p p a r e n t l y t a k e n f r o m t h e s a m e c o t t a g e p o r c h , w e r e m a n u f a c t u r e d b y s u p e r i m p o s i n g i m a g e s o f v a r i o u s n u m -b e r s of n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e s o n f o u r b a c k g r o u n d s c e n e s . W h e n s h o w n t h e s l i d e s a n d a s k e d w h i c h v i e w t h e y w o u l d p r e f e r f r o m t h e i r o w n c o t t a g e p o r c h , s u b j e c t s w e r e f o u n d to r e s p o n d t o t h e n u m b e r o f n e i g h b o u r s a n d d i s t a n c e t o t h e n e a r e s t a c c o r d i n g t o W e b e r ' s l a w . B y t r a n s f o r m i n g n e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e t o a m e a s u r e m e n t o f a r e a , a r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s u b j e c t i v e p r e -f e r e n c e a n d l o t s i z e i s e s t a b l i s h e d . T o c o m p a r e t h e a b o v e s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e - l o t s i z e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h m o r e t r a d i t i o n a l m e a s u r e s of v a l u e , a g e n e r a l i z e d t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n f o r c o t t a g e l o t s i s b u i l t a n d t h e n t u n e d w i t h d a t a f r o m t h e l i t e r a t u r e . F r o m t h e t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n ' b o t h a v e r a g e a n d m a r g i n a l c o s t e q u a t i o n s a r e d e r i v e d a n d p l o t t e d f o r l o t s o f v a r y i n g s i z e . A s m i g h t b e e x p e c t e d , t h e r e i s n o a p p a r e n t s i m i l a r i t y b e t w e e n s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e a n d d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t f o r l o t s o f a n y p a r t i c u l a r s i z e . W i t h t h e c o o p e r a t i o n of t h e P r o v i n c i a l A s s e s s o r a n d R e g i s t r a r of L a n d s , m a r k e t p r i c e , l o t s i z e , d a t e o f s a l e , a n d o t h e r d a t a w e r e c o l l e c t e d f o r 5 7 9 p a r c e l s o f t h e G u l f I s l a n d s . A n a n a l y s i s o f t h i s d a t a s u g g e s t s t h a t , u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s of v e r y r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e - l o t s i z e r e l a t i o n s h i p , m i g h t b e r e f l e c t e d i n t h e m a r k e t p r i c e s . B u t t h i s t r a d i -t i o n a l m e a s u r e o f v a l u e i s n o t a r e l i a b l e r e f l e c t i o n of s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e . I n a n e f f o r t to l e a r n s o m e of the c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e s c o u l d be s a t i s f i e d , a m e a s u r e of the i m p a c t of d e v e l o p m e n t u p o n e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i s c o n c e i v e d and i n c o r p o r a t e d i n a m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l of the d e v e l o p m e n t of the G u l f I s l a n d s . W i t h i n the m o d e l , d e v e l o p e r s s u b -d i v i d e l a n d i n r e s p o n s e to d e m a n d f o r cot tage l o t s , t h e i r d e s i r e f o r p r o f i t , a n d the c o s t of p r o d u c i n g the l o t s . The s e n s i t i v i t y of the m o d e l to v a r i o u s p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s i s t h e n t e s t e d . i v T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S P a g e T I T L E P A G E i A B S T R A C T i i T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S . . . . i v L I S T O F T A B L E S v i L I S T O F F I G U R E S . . v i i LIST OF PLATES... ix L I S T O F A P P E N D I C E S . . x A C K N O W L E D G M E N TS x i I N T R O D U C T I O N 1 L O T S I Z E A S A M E A S U R E O F E N V I R O N M E N T A L Q U A L I T Y 3 Q u e s t i o n i n g M e t h o d s 3 R e s p o n s e M e a s u r e m e n t 5 R e s p o n s e V a r i a b i l i t y 6 S l i d e M a n u f a c t u r e 8 E x p e r i m e n t a l P r o c e d u r e 9 R e s u l t s and D i s c u s s i o n 9 P R O D U C T I O N C O S T V E R S U S L O T S I Z E 23 M A R K E T V A L U E V E R S U S L O T S I Z E 31 D a t a C o l l e c t i o n and A n a l y s i s 32 T H E G U L F I S L A N D S R E C R E A T I O N A L L A N D S I M U L A T O R 39 D e m a n d f o r C o t t a g e L o t s 40 S u p p l y of C o t t a g e L o t s . . . 42 I n t e r a c t i o n of S u p p l y and D e m a n d 47 S i m u l a t i o n M o d e l s . . . . . 50 G r a p h i c a l R e p r e s e n t a t i o n of Q u a l i t y 52 G I R L S V a l i d i t y 55 S i m u l a t i o n S t u d i e s '. 57 CONCLUSIONS BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDICES v i L I S T O F T A B L E S T a b l e P a g e I S i g n i f i c a n c e of d a t a a d j u s t m e n t by the P , Q t r a n s f o r m 13 II M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s i n i t i a l l y t e s t e d , v a r i a n c e r a t i o s , s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s , a n d c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e -l a t i o n 15 -1 .5 III P a r a m e t e r s A and B of the r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l R = A - B D N , v a r i a n c e r a t i o s , s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s , a n d c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e l a t i o n f o r e a c h of the s c e n e s i n P l a t e 1 17 I V A t a b u l a r c o m p a r i s o n of u n a d j u s t e d (E) , a d j u s t e d (R), and p r e d i c t e d m e a n e v a l u a t i o n s of p i c t u r e s s h o w n i n P l a t e 1 18 V D e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s , 160 a c r e s u b d i v i s i o n 27 V I A n a l y s i s of m a r k e t p r i c e v a r i a t i o n . 3 5 V I I N u m b e r of p a r c e l s , a v e r a g e p r i c e , a n d p r i c e r a n g e by s i z e c l a s s a n d a s s e s s m e n t y e a r 37 V I I I C a l c u l a t i o n of the " q u a l i t y a r e a " i n a s y s t e m at one p o i n t i n t i m e 53 v i i L I S T O F F I G U R E S F i g u r e Page 1 Combinations of background scene, distance to, and number of neighbours r e p r e s e n t e d by p i c t u r e s r e p r o d u c e d in P l a t e 1. 10 2 O b s e r v e d (adjusted) p r e f e r e n c e s v e r s u s those p r e d i c t e d by the r e g r e s s i o n equation for each scene 16 3 Subjective p r e f e r e n c e v e r s u s distance to n e a r e s t neighbour, scenes 1-4, one house v i s i b l e 19 4 P r e f e r e n c e v e r s u s lot s i z e . A l l scenes, one house v i s i b l e . . . ZI 5 Development cost v e r s u s lot size, 160 a c r e s u b d i v i s i o n 28 6 A v e r a g e and m a r g i n a l development cost v e r s u s lot size, 160 a c r e s u b d i v i s i o n 29 7 S i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n and average p a r c e l p r i c e by a s s e s s m e n t year 38 8 F l o w d i a g r a m of the Gulf Islands R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r 41 9 F l o w d i a g r a m of the " S u b d i v i s i o n " p r o c e s s 45 10 F l o w d i a g r a m of the one component of " E c o l o g i c a l F e e d b a c k " in c l u d e d in GIRLS > 48 11 G r a p h i c a l output of the Gulf Islands R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d Simulator, no interventions 51 12 G I R L S output showing the effect of a reduced rate of population growth f r o m 1966 60 13 G I R L S output showing the effect of an a c c e l e r a t e d rate of population growth f r o m 1966 61 14 G I R L S output showing the effect of a reduced rate of e c onomic growth f r o m 1966 62 15 G IRLS output showing the effect of an a c c e l e r a t e d rate of e conomic growth f r o m 1966 63 v i i i F i g u r e P a g e 16 G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of z e r o p o p u l a t i o n and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m 1966 „ 64 17 G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a 10 p e r cent s a l e s t a x f r o m 1966 65 18 G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of i n c r e a s e d m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e s f r o m 1966 66 19 G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of i n c r e a s e d p r o p e r t y -t a x e s f r o m 1 9 6 6 . 67 Z0 G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a p o l i c y i m p o s i n g a m i n i m u m l o t s i z e ° 8 i x LIST OF PLATES P l a t e • Page 1 D i s p l a y of p i c t u r e s used in the study 11 X L I S T O F A P P E N D I C E S A P P E N D I X I P a g e I T H E C O N T R I B U T I O N O F B I N O C U L A R V I S I O N T O T H E P E R C E P T I O N O F D I S T A N C E 74 II Q U E S T I O N N A I R E S U S E D I N T H E S T U D Y O F L O T S I Z E A S A M E A S U R E O F E N V I R O N M E N T A L Q U A L I T Y 81 III A L I S T I N G O F G I R L S 88 x i A C K N O W L E D G M E N T S T h e w o r k d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s t h e s i s w a s done w i t h s u p p o r t f r o m a F o r d F o u n d a t i o n g r a n t to D r . C . S . H o l l i n g . I a m v e r y g r a t e f u l to D r . H o l l i n g and the F o r d F o u n d a t i o n f o r h a v i n g g i v e n m e the o p p o r t u n i t y to w o r k i n the a b s e n c e of o r t h o d o x b o u n d s . A n e x c i t i n g m i x of p r o b l e m - o r i e n t e d g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s f r o m a s s o r t e d d e p a r t m e n t s , d i s c i p l i n e d b y the d e m a n d s of s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l l i n g and l e d b y D r . C . S . H o l l i n g a n d D r . W . W . J e f f r e y , p r o v i d e d the s t i m u l a t i n g a t m o s p h e r e i n w h i c h the s t u d y w a s c o n c e i v e d . W i t h o u t the a s s i s -t a n c e of K e r s t i W o o l m a n , J a n e t G u m m e r , and Ian B a n k s , i t s c o m p l e t i o n m i g h t r e m a i n i n the f u t u r e . I N T R O D U C T I O N T h e G u l f I s l a n d s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a l i e i n the m o s t p r o t e c t e d w a t e r s of the P a c i f i c C o a s t of N o r t h A m e r i c a , and i n the m o s t gent le c l i m a t i c r e g i o n of C a n a d a . T h e i r b e a u t y i s w i d e l y a c c l a i m e d . It i s not s u r p r i s i n g , t h e r e f o r e , that t h e s e i s l a n d s a r e e x p e r i e n c i n g an a c c e l e r a t i n g i n f l u x of s u m m e r and p e r -m a n e n t r e s i d e n t s . So r a p i d h a s b e e n t h i s d e v e l o p m e n t r e c e n t l y that one f r e -q u e n t l y h e a r s s t o r i e s of " d e t e r i o r a t i n g q u a l i t y " and the g r o w i n g " s u b u r b a n e n v i r o n m e n t " . The s a m e s t o r y i s h e a r d e l s e w h e r e w i t h r e f e r e n c e to r i c h a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d s as w e l l as i d y l l i c h o l i d a y r e g i o n s . U s i n g o u r s o c i e t y ' s t r a d i t i o n a l m e a s u r e s of v a l u e , the m a r k e t a n d b a l l o t box , no j u s t i f i c a t i o n c a n be f o u n d f o r c l a i m s of l o s t q u a l i t y . O n m o v i n g f r o m a g r i c u l t u r a l o r e x t e n s i v e r e c r e a t i o n a l use to m o r e i n t e n s i v e s u b u r b a n u s e s , v a l u e a c r u e s to the l a n d , f o r p r i c e s c e r t a i n l y r i s e and p o l i t i c a l c a m -p a i g n s a r e n e v e r fought on s u c h m u n d a n e b a t t l e f i e l d s as " l a n d u s e " . G o v e r n -m e n t s s e l d o m m a k e p e r m a n e n t p o l i c y a d j u s t m e n t s to s l o w or s top s u c h s h i f t s i n the u s e of l a n d , yet s t o r i e s of l o s t q u a l i t y c o n t i n u e and s e e m i n t u i t i v e l y c o r r e c t . T h e w o r k d e s c r i b e d h e r e w a s u n d e r t a k e n i n c o n s e q u e n c e of the above i n t u i t i o n a n d i s p a r t of a l a r g e r s tudy of r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d u s e i n the G u l f I s l a n d s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . The a i m of the l a r g e r s t u d y w a s to d e v e l o p a s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l of l a n d m o v i n g f r o m a g r i c u l t u r e a n d f o r e s t r y to m o r e i n t e n s i v e use as s u m m e r cot tage s i t e s . In a c h i e v i n g i t s g o a l , the p a r e n t s t u d y i d e n t i f i e d and l i n k e d p r o c e s s e s w h i c h d e s c r i b e the s u p p l y of l a n d to d e v e l o p e r s , the s u b d i v i s i o n of p a r c e l s s u i t a b l e f o r co t tage use , c o n s e q u e n t c h a n g e s i n t h e i r r e c r e a t i o n a l q u a l i t y , the d e m a n d f o r t h e m , and an a u c t i o n o r m a r k e t i n w h i c h s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d i n t e r a c t . T h e r e s u l t i n g G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r ( G I R L S ) m i m i c s the d e v e l o p m e n t of the I s l a n d s f o r co t tage use f r o m 1 9 0 0 to 2 0 0 0 , g i v e n c e r t a i n a s s u m p t i o n s c o n -c e r n i n g f u t u r e r a t e s of t a x a t i o n , p o p u l a t i o n and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h , the d i s t r i -2 b u t i o n of w e a l t h , and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of the I s l a n d s to d e v e l o p e r s . M o r e b r i e f l y , the m o d e l s i m u l a t e s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of a r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e as p r i v a t e l y - o w n e d p a r c e l s of l a n d . W i t h i n s u c h a d i s t r i b u t i o n s y s t e m , a k e y p r o c e s s i s that w h i c h sub-d i v i d e s the r e s o u r c e i n t o i n d i v i d u a l p a r c e l s . T h e r e the e n v i r o n m e n t r e c e i v e s the i m p a c t of e c o n o m i c a l l y e x p r e s s e d s o c i a l d e m a n d s . It i s m y h y p o t h e s i s that the d e v e l o p m e n t ( s u b d i v i s i o n ) of a r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e i n r e s p o n s e to e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a lone c a n r e s u l t i n the d e t e r i o r a t i o n of that e n v i r o n m e n t . T h e f o l l o w i n g o b j e c t i v e s w e r e d e s i g n e d f i r s t to t e s t that h y p o t h e s i s ; t h e n , i f t r u e , to p r o v i d e e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t e d m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n s w h i c h c o u l d be u s e d to b u i l d the s u b d i v i s i o n and e n v i r o n m e n t a l change p r o c e s s e s i n G I R L S . T h i s s t u d y t h e r e f o r e b r i n g s in to b e i n g a m a j o r p o r t i o n of G I R L S , a n d r e p r e -s e n t s p a r t of m y c o n t r i b u t i o n to the d e v e l o p m e n t of that s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . T h e o b j e c t i v e s of t h i s s t u d y w e r e : 1. T o i d e n t i f y s o m e v i s u a l l y p e r c e i v a b l e m e a s u r e of the i n t e n s i t y of d e v e l o p m e n t of the e n v i r o n m e n t i n q u e s t i o n . 2. T o i d e n t i f y s o m e u n c o n s t r a i n e d m e a s u r e of p r e f e r e n c e f o r tha t e n v i r o n m e n t . 3. T o q u a n t i t a t i v e l y r e l a t e i n t e n s i t y of d e v e l o p m e n t to: (a) the above u n c o n s t r a i n e d m e a s u r e of p r e f e r e n c e ; (b) m a r k e t v a l u e ; and, (c) d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t . 4 . T o e x p r e s s the a b o v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m , t h e n l i n k e q u a t i o n s i n a m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l of r e c r e a t i o n a l Land use ( G I R L S ) . 5. T o s i m u l a t e d e v e l o p m e n t of the I s l a n d s f o r c o t t a g e r s f r o m 1900 to 2000 u n d e r a v a r i e t y of s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d c o n d i t i o n s i n an a t t e m p t to l e a r n s o m e of the c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h m a r k e t v a l u e s r e f l e c t s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e s . 3 L O T S I Z E A S A M E A S U R E O F E N V I R O N M E N T A L Q U A L I T Y T o m a n y p e o p l e , t h e r e i s a c a u s e a n d e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n c h a n g e i n h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y a n d c h a n g e d e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . T o p u r s u e e m p i r i c a l v e r i f i c a t i o n of that r e l a t i o n s h i p one m u s t f i r s t s p e c i f y the q u a l i t a t i v e a t t r i b u t e u n d e r s t u d y a n d the a r e a l ex tent of d e n s i t y , h e n c e q u a l i t y m e a s u r e m e n t s . H e r e q u a l i t y i s d e f i n e d as an a g g r e g a t e of p r e f e r e n c e s c o l l e c t i v e l y b e y o n d a n a l y s i s . O n e d i m e n s i o n of the a g g r e g a t e , p r i v a c y or the a v a i l a b i l i t y of s o l i t u d e , m a y be v i e w e d as a f u n c t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y o v e r a r a t h e r s m a l l a r e a . T r a d i t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y m e a s u r e m e n t s a r e e x p r e s s e d as the n u m b e r of i n d i v i d u a l s p e r u n i t a r e a of l a n d s u r f a c e . M u c h m o r e c o n v e n i e n t i n the s t u d y of h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n s i s the i n v e r s e , o r u n i t s of l a n d a r e a p e r i n d i v i d u a l , f a m i l y , o r o t h e r s o c i a l u n i t . S u c h an e x p r e s s i o n h a s p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n i n the p l a n n i n g of c o m m u n i t i e s , and h i s t o r i c a l d a t a c o n c e r n i n g the s i z e of i n d i v i d u a l p a r c e l s of l a n d (and c h a n g e s i n m u n i c i p a l b o u n d a r i e s ) a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r the p a s t c e n t u r y or m o r e . In the o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l c o n t e x t of t h i s s t u d y , the f a m i l y i s the p e r t i n e n t s o c i a l uni t , s o l i t u d e the q u a l i t a t i v e a t t r i b u t e , and l o t s i z e the a p p l i c a b l e m e a s u r e of p o p u l a t i o n d i s p e r s i o n . Q u e s t i o n i n g M e t h o d s T o s i m p l y a s k p e o p l e what i n t e n s i t y of d e v e l o p m e n t , s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u -t i o n of f a m i l i e s , or l o t s i z e they w o u l d p r e f e r i n a g i v e n e n v i r o n m e n t , m a k e s l i t t l e s e n s e . T o a s k t h e m to g r a p h i c a l l y r e l a t e the change i n t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e w i t h c h a n g i n g l o t s i z e s e e m s m o r e r i d i c u l o u s . E v e n i f r e s p o n d e n t s ' u n d e r -s t a n d i n g of s p a t i a l m e a s u r e m e n t w e r e d e t a i l e d , the m e n t a l i m a g e s u p o n w h i c h a n s w e r s w e r e b a s e d m u s t c e r t a i n l y d i f f e r as w o u l d the u n i t s of v a l u e u s e d to r e p l y . T w o k e y p r o b l e m s w e r e t h e r e f o r e : ( 1 ) the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of s o m e m e t h o d of m e a s u r i n g an u n c o n s t r a i n e d s u b j e c t i v e r e s p o n s e ; and ( 2 ) the v i s u a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of l o t s i z e . T h e l a t t e r r e c e i v e s a t t e n t i o n f i r s t . T h e v i s u a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of d i f f e r e n t lo t s i z e s f o r s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a -t i o n r e q u i r e s s o m e u n m i s t a k a b l e a r e a l i n d e x and a h i g h d e g r e e of s p a t i a l r e a l i t y . A l l o t h e r a s p e c t s of the e n v i r o n m e n t s h o u l d be h e l d c o n s t a n t . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h r e e p o s s i b i l i t i e s w e r e a p p a r e n t . 1. A f i e l d s i t u a t i o n w h e r e o b s e r v e r s w e r e a s k e d to e v a l u a t e a c t u a l l o t s . 2 . A t h r e e - d i m e n s i o n a l m o d e l . 3 . P h o t o g r a p h s . T h e f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e , i d e a l i n m a n y r e s p e c t s , w o u l d not p r o v i d e an e n v i r o n -m e n t u n i f o r m i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o t h e r t h a n l o t s i z e a n d i t s use w o u l d be p r o -h i b i t i v e l y e x p e n s i v e . A l t h o u g h the r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s by p h o t o g r a p h s s e e m s q u e s t i o n a b l e , they c a n m i m i c the r e m a i n i n g e n v i r o n m e n t w i t h g r e a t e r r e a l i s m t h a n c a n t h r e e - d i m e n s i o n a l m o d e l s . If, t h e r e f o r e , a t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l p h o t o g r a p h c a n a d e q u a t e l y r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t l o t s i z e s , that p r e s e n t a t i o n m e d i u m w o u l d s e e m b e s t . T h e c h o i c e of s i g n s by w h i c h to i n d i c a t e v a r i o u s l o t s i z e s w a s l i m i t e d to a f e n c e o r a n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e . S i n c e l o t s i z e i s u s e d h e r e as a m e a s u r e of p r i v a c y a v a i l a b l e , a f e n c e w o u l d be i n a d e q u a t e , f o r a l t h o u g h p r o p e r t y b o u n d a r i e s c a n be t h u s d e f i n e d , the p r o x i m i t y of a n e i g h b o u r c a n n o t . T h e d i s t a n c e to a n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e w a s t h e r e f o r e c o n s i d e r e d the b e s t a v a i l a b l e i n d i c a t o r of s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n , h e n c e l o t s i z e . B u t c a n s u c h d i s t a n c e s be r e v e a l e d i n p h o t o g r a p h s ? D i s t a n c e p e r c e p t i o n i s d e p e n d e n t on m o n o c u l a r as w e l l as b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n ( G i b s o n , 1958) . I n d e e d , b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n d o m i n a t e s the j u d g m e n t of d i s t a n c e s l e s s t h a n 10 m e t e r s f r o m an o b s e r v e r ( A p p e n d i x I) . B e y o n d that r a n g e , m o n o c u l a r c u e s (the s i z e of f a m i l i a r o b j e c t s , t e x t u r e g r a d i e n t s , and o t h e r s ) s u b j u g a t e d i s t a n c e j u d g m e n t s ( A p p e n d i x I; H o l o w a y a n d B o r i n g , 1941; G i b s o n , 1958; B e r r y , 1948) . So l o n g as the d i s t a n c e to a n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e 5 i s n o t l e s s t h a n 1 0 m e t e r s , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t d i s t a n c e c a n b e c o r r e c t l y p e r -c e i v e d b y m o n o c u l a r c u e s a l o n e . I n a p h o t o g r a p h , c h a n g e s i n t h e d i s t a n c e to t h a t n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e w o u l d b e r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e e x p a n s i o n o r c o n t r a c t i o n o f t h e b u i l d i n g ' s i m a g e . S u c h a c h a n g e w o u l d b e p e r c e i v e d b y a h u m a n o b s e r -v e r a s a c h a n g e i n t h e d i s t a n c e t o t h e h o u s e ( S c h i f f , 1 9 6 5 ; A p p e n d i x I), p a r t i -c u l a r l y i f g l a r e a n d o t h e r c u e s f o r f l a t n e s s ( S c h l o s b e r g , 1 9 4 1 ) w e r e a v o i d e d t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f r e a r p r o j e c t i o n . P h o t o g r a p h s w e r e t h e r e f o r e c h o s e n a s t h e m o s t a c c e p t a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r t h e d i s p l a y of d i f f e r e n t l o t s i z e s . R e s p o n s e M e a s u r e m e n t T h e u s e o f p h o t o g r a p h s t o p r e s e n t e n v i r o n m e n t s f o r e v a l u a t i o n i s c e r t a i n l y n o t n e w ( F i n e s , 1 9 6 8 ; L a c e y , e t a l . , 1 9 6 3 ; L e v i , 1 9 6 5 ; S a n o f f , 1 9 6 9 ; S h a f e r , e t a L , 1 9 6 9 ) . N e i t h e r i s t h e i r m o d i f i c a t i o n b y r e - t o u c h i n g ( H e r m a n n , e t a l . , 1 9 6 8 ) o r m o n t a g e ( J a c o b s a n d W a y , 1 9 6 9 ) t e c h n i q u e s . S u c h m e t h o d s s e e m d e s t i n e d t o b e c o m e a s t a n d a r d t o o l f o r i n v e s t i g a t i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l v a l u e s . T h e m e t h o d s b y w h i c h r e s p o n s e s o r e v a l u a t i o n s a r e m e a s u r e d , h o w e v e r , a r e e x t r e m e l y d i v e r s e . T h e y v a r y f r o m t h e s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l ( B e r l y n e a n d P e c k h a m , 1 9 6 6 ; O s g o o d , 1 9 5 2 ; S a n o f f , 1 9 6 9 ) c o m m o n i n t h e a r c h i t e c t u r a l l i t e r a t u r e , t h r o u g h v a r i o u s p s y c h o p h y s i c a l t e c h n i q u e s ( S t e v e n s , 1 9 5 1 ) , t o t h e e n d o c r i n o l o g i s t s ' m e a s u r e m e n t of c a t e c h o l a m i n e e x c r e t i o n ( L e v i , 1 9 6 5 ) . O f t h e s e m e t h o d s , t h o s e f o u n d i n t h e p s y c h o p h y s i c a l l i t e r a t u r e s e e m m o s t a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h i s s t u d y . T h e r e , m e a s u r e m e n t s o f p h y s i c a l s t i m u l i a n d p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e a r e q u a n t i t a t i v e a n d r e l a t e d b y a w e l l -d o c u m e n t e d l a w ( E k m a n a n d S j o b e r g , 1 9 6 5 ; S t e v e n s , I 9 6 0 ; T r e i s m a n , 1 9 6 6 ) . T h e q u a n t i t a t i v e a t t r i b u t e s a r e a n e c e s s a r y r e q u i r e m e n t f o r m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l l i n g a n d , i f d a t a c o l l e c t e d w e r e f o u n d to c o n f o r m t o e s t a b l i s h e d p s y c h o -l o g i c a l l a w s , t h e d a n g e r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i s c i p l i n a r y t r e s p a s s w o u l d b e m i n i m i z e d . E x p e r i m e n t a l l y , p s y c h o p h y s i c a l i n v e s t i g a t o r s e x p o s e o b s e r v e r s t o a r a n g e o f i n t e n s i t i e s of s o m e s t i m u l u s . D u r i n g t h e e x p o s u r e , o b s e r v e r s ' i n v o l u n t a r y r e s p o n s e s c a n b e r e c o r d e d o n a n e l e c t r o c a r d i o g r a p h , e l e c t r o -6 e n c e p h a l o g r a p h , or s i m i l a r d e v i c e . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , o b s e r v e r s m a y be a s k e d to r e s p o n d v o l u n t a r i l y by a s s i g n i n g to e a c h s t i m u l u s l e v e l p r e s e n t e d s o m e p o s i t i o n on a r e s p o n s e c o n t i n u u m p r o v i d e d b y the i n v e s t i g a t o r . R e s p o n s e c o n t i n u a u s e d v a r y f r o m b r i g h t n e s s of l i g h t , l o u d n e s s of s o u n d , o r f o r c e of h a n d g r i p , to a r a n g e of n u m b e r s (S tevens , I 960 ) . B e c a u s e the b e s t m e a s u r e s of s u b j e c t i v e r e s p o n s e do not r e q u i r e the o b s e r v e r to m a k e n u m e r i c a l e s t i m a -t i o n s (S tevens , I960) , yet s o m e c o m p a r a t i v e l y s i m p l e s y s t e m by w h i c h the o b s e r v e r l e f t a p e r m a n e n t r e c o r d of h i s j u d g m e n t w a s d e s i r a b l e f o r t h i s s tudy , o b s e r v e r s w e r e a s k e d to r e c o r d t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e f o r e a c h s t i m u l u s p r e s e n t e d b y m a r k i n g l e v e l s i n c o l u m n s of " p r e f e r e n c e " ( A p p e n d i x II) . In t h i s w a y the u s e of e l a b o r a t e a p p a r a t u s a n d the i n a c c u r a c i e s of n u m e r i c a l e s t i m a t i o n s w e r e a v o i d e d , w h i l e s i m p l i c i t y w a s p r e s e r v e d . R e s p o n s e V a r i a b i l i t y I n u n d e r t a k i n g a s t u d y s u c h as t h i s , one i s c o n s t a n t l y p l a g u e d b y n o t i o n s of i n d i v i d u a l i t y , that p e o p l e , u n l i k e o t h e r a n i m a l s , do not r e s p o n d p r e d i c t a b l y to the s a m e s t i m u l u s on d i f f e r e n t o c c a s i o n s and that c u l t u r a l d i v e r s i t y i m p l i e s r e s p o n s e d i s s i m i l a r i t i e s . If the f e a r p r o m o t e s h e s i t a t i o n , i t a l s o e m b o l d e n s the i n v e s t i g a t o r s i n c e g r e a t v a r i a t i o n i n r e s u l t s c a n be a t t r i b u t e d to d i v e r s i t y i n the e x p e r i m e n t a l o r g a n i s m and s h o d d y t e c h n i q u e t h u s d i s g u i s e d . In e i t h e r event , w h e n s i g n i f i c a n t r e s p o n s e v a r i a t i o n i s e x p e c t e d b e t w e e n p o p u l a t i o n s t r a t a , t h o s e s t r a t a s h o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d and m o n i t o r e d as d a t a c o l l e c t i o n p r o c e e d s . C o n s i d e r i n g the s t r a t a l i k e l y to c o r r e s p o n d w i t h r e s p o n s e d i f f e r e n c e s , the ex tent of c r o w d i n g i n c h i l d h o o d and p r e s e n t h o m e s i t u a t i o n s a s s u m e i m m e d i a t e i m p o r t a n c e . P e o p l e r e a r e d or l i v i n g i n an e x t r e m e l y l a r g e c i t y m a y f e e l i l l at e a s e w i t h o u t the k n o w l e d g e that o t h e r s a r e n e a r o r , c o n v e r s e l y , m a y h a v e g r o w n m i s a n t h r o p i c . S i m i l a r s p e c u l a t i o n c a n be m a d e w i t h r e s p e c t to o t h e r c h i l d h o o d and p r e s e n t h o m e e n v i r o n s . T h e s i z e of c o m m u n i t y i n w h i c h r e s p o n d e n t s w e r e r e a r e d , a n d the s i z e of c o m m u n i t y i n w h i c h t h e y l i v e , a r e t h e r e f o r e i m p o r t a n t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s of the p o p u l a t i o n . 7 V a r i a t i o n i n r e s p o n d e n t s ' ages m i g h t a l s o c o i n c i d e w i t h d i f f e r e n c e s i n r e s p o n s e to the p r o x i m i t y of n e i g h b o u r s , not o n l y b e c a u s e age r e f l e c t s the t i m e d u r i n g w h i c h , s a y , m i s a n t h r o p y c o u l d h a v e d e v e l o p e d , but age a l s o r e f l e c t s d i f f e r e n t f u n c t i o n a l s t a g e s i n an i n d i v i d u a l ' s l i f e . P r e - p u b e r t y r e s p o n s e s m i g h t be d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h o s e of i n d i v i d u a l s of m a t i n g age, p r e -c o u r t s h i p r e s p o n s e s m i g h t d i f f e r f r o m t h o s e of m a t e d i n d i v i d u a l s , and c o u p l e s w i t h y o u n g m i g h t r e s p o n d d i f f e r e n t l y f r o m c o u p l e s who h a v e no c h i l d r e n . A g e , sex , m a r i t a l s t a t u s , a n d f a m i l y s i z e w e r e t h e r e f o r e a d d e d to the l i s t of s t r a t a i n w h i c h p e r s o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n w a s to be c o l l e c t e d . I n c o m e , a t r a d i t i o n a l c o r r e l a t e of r e s p o n s e d i f f e r e n c e s , and t h e use a p a r c e l of l a n d i s to s e r v e , w o u l d s e e m i m p o r t a n t c o n d i t i o n s upon w h i c h a p r e f e r e n c e r e s p o n s e w a s b a s e d . B e c a u s e the s tudy i s d i r e c t l y c o n c e r n e d w i t h r e c r e a t i o n a l , o r co t tage u s e , r e s p o n d e n t s h a d to be a s k e d to r e s p o n d i n that c o n t e x t . A t the s a m e t i m e i t w o u l d be i n t e r e s t i n g to t e s t f o r d i f f e r e n t p r e f e r e n c e f u n c t i o n s i f the p r o p e r t i e s w e r e to be u s e d not as s u m m e r h o m e s i t e s but p e r m a n e n t r e s i d e n c e s . L a s t l y , r e s p o n s e s m i g h t be c o n d i -t i o n e d b y c u r r e n t cot tage o w n e r s h i p , o r by l a c k of i n t e r e s t i n o w n i n g a s u m m e r c o t t a g e . T h e s e t h r e e f a c t o r s , i n c o m e , u s e , and cot tage o w n e r s h i p , w e r e t h e r e f o r e a d d e d to the s i x p r e v i o u s l y d e r i v e d to f o r m the b u i l d i n g b l o c k s f r o m w h i c h the p e r s o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w e r e b u i l t . T h e s p a c i n g of s a m p l i n g p o i n t s w i t h i n t h e s e n i n e s t r a t a w a s p u r e l y s u b j e c t i v e a n d r e s u l t e d i n the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s d i s p l a y e d i n A p p e n d i x II. J u s t as r e s p o n s e m i g h t be c o r r e l a t e d to the p o p u l a t i o n s t r a t a d i s -c u s s e d a b o v e , i t m i g h t be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h q u a l i t i e s o t h e r t h a n p r i v a c y (lot s i z e ) , h e n c e the q u e s t i o n s : (1) w h a t a d d i t i o n a l q u a n t i f i a b l e p a r a m e t e r s c a n be c o n s i d e r e d p a r t of the a s s e m b l a g e w h i c h c o n s t i t u t e s e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y , a n d (2) w h i c h of t h e s e , i f any, s h o u l d be i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y , the o b j e c t i v e of w h i c h i s to i s o l a t e and d e s c r i b e v a r i a t i o n i n p r e f e r e n c e due to l o t s i z e a l o n e ? 8 T w o s u c h m e a s u r e s a r e the s l o p e of a p a r c e l of l a n d and i t s p r o x i m i t y to w a t e r . T h e f o r m e r p e r h a p s b e c a u s e i t r e f l e c t s the o p p o r t u n i t y to v i e w o n e ' s s u r r o u n d i n g s , the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b u i l d i n g , or the e a s e w i t h w h i c h the l a n d m a y be t i l l e d ; the l a t t e r b e c a u s e i t r e f l e c t s o p p o r t u n i t y f o r w a t e r - o r i e n t e d r e c r e a t i o n a n d / o r f o o d g a t h e r i n g a c t i v i t i e s . Indeed , s l o p e a l o n e h a s b e e n f o u n d to be a f a i r l y r e l i a b l e p r e d i c t o r of o n - s i t e s u b -j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s of w a t e r f r o n t p r o p e r t y ( C h a m b e r s , 1969). A n o t h e r m e a s u r e o r g r o u p o f m e a s u r e s of q u a l i t y i n v o l v e s v e g e t a t i o n , n o t o n l y as i t r e l a t e s to s h e l t e r f ro m the e l e m e n t s , a v a i l a b l e food, or p a s t o r a l b e a u t y , but a l s o as a p u r v e y o r of p r i v a c y ( D a r l i n g , 1951). A c c o r d i n g l y , a v e g e t a t i o n s c r e e n m i g h t be an a p p r o p r i a t e v e g e t a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c to use h e r e . W i t h i n G I R L S , h o w e v e r , s l o p e , d i s t a n c e to w a t e r , and v e g e t a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e u s e d to d e t e r m i n e i n i t i a l l a n d q u a l i t i e s a n d a r e not c o n -s i d e r e d h e r e . The q u a l i t a t i v e , f e a t u r e s s t u d i e d w e r e , t h e r e f o r e , r e d u c e d to (1) the d i s t a n c e to, a n d (2) n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e s . L o t s i z e i s a f u n c t i o n of the f i r s t . S l i d e M a n u f a c t u r e T o m a i n t a i n c o n t i n u i t y b e t w e e n p i c t u r e s , a s t a n d a r d v i s u a l r e f e r e n c e h a s b e e n f o u n d u s e f u l i n s i m i l a r s t u d i e s ( J a c o b s and W a y , 1969) . T h e a p p r o -p r i a t e s t a n d a r d i n t h i s c a s e w a s a cot tage p r o c h f r o m w h i c h a l l p i c t u r e s a p p e a r e d to be t a k e n . T h e s l i d e m a n u f a c t u r i n g p r o c e d u r e e m p l o y e d w a s to p h o t o g r a p h an 8x10 i n c h c o l o u r p r i n t of s o m e b a s i c l a n d s c a p e u p o n w h i c h the co t tage p r o c h f o r e g r o u n d and n e i g h b o u r i n g cot tage i m a g e s h a d b e e n a r r a n g e d . B a s i c s c e n e s , w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of one, w e r e c h o s e n to m a x i m i z e the p o s s i -b i l i t y of s u p e r i m p o s i n g b u i l d i n g i m a g e s at v a r i o u s d i s t a n c e s . S c e n e f o u r w a s s e l e c t e d b e c a u s e it r e p r e s e n t e d w a t e r f r o n t p r o p e r t y . N e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e s t e s t e d f e l l i n the ; r a n g e f r o m 50 to 500 f e e t . T h e l o w e r l i m i t w a s c h o s e n as a r e s u l t of the i n v e s t i g a t i o n r e p o r t e d i n A p p e n d i x I, the u p p e r b y s u b j e c t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , a n d the k n o w l e d g e that 9 s u c h n e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e s w o u l d r e q u i r e l o t s i z e s of about 5 a c r e s . W i t h i n that r a n g e , d i s t a n c e s c h o s e n w e r e 50, 90, 124, 180, 300, a n d 500 fee t . B e c a u s e a l l s e m b l a n c e of r e a l i t y w a s l o s t i f m o r e t h a n f i v e h o u s e s w e r e i n -c l u d e d , the n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s r a n g e d f r o m z e r o to f i v e . W i t h i n the c o n -s t r a i n t s i m p o s e d by b a s i c s c e n e s and p h o t o g r a p h i c t e c h n i q u e , s c e n e s , d i s t a n c e s and n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s w e r e c o m b i n e d as s h o w n i n F i g u r e 1 to p r o d u c e the p i c t u r e set d i s p l a y e d i n P l a t e 1. E x p e r i m e n t a l P r o c e d u r e A u n i v e r s i t y " O p e n H o u s e " p r o v i d e d an e x c e l l e n t o p p o r t u n i t y to o b t a i n r e s p o n s e s f r o m a l a r g e n u m b e r of p e o p l e f r o m a r a n g e of age , i n c o m e and o t h e r p o p u l a t i o n s t r a t a , p r o v i d e d the p r o c e d u r e e m p l o y e d c o u l d u t i l i z e a c o n -t i n u o u s f l o w of r e s p o n d e n t s . The f o l l o w i n g r a n d o m i z e d s p l i t - p l o t d e s i g n was t h e r e f o r e e m p l o y e d . F o u r p i c t u r e s w e r e s e l e c t e d r a n d o m l y f r o m w i t h i n e a c h of two s y s t e m a t i c a l l y s e l e c t e d s c e n e s ( P l a t e 1). T h e s e two g r o u p s of f o u r p i c t u r e s e a c h w e r e d i s p l a y e d o n a r e a r p r o j e c t i o n s c r e e n , and t h i r t y r e s p o n d e n t s a s k e d , t h r o u g h q u e s t i o n n a i r e s ( A p p e n d i x II) to g r a d e the p i c t u r e s a c c o r d i n g to t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e . A f t e r t h e s e t h i r t y q u e s t i o n n a i r e s h a d b e e n r e t u r n e d , the p r o c e d u r e w a s r e p e a t e d u s i n g a n o t h e r t w o g r o u p s of f o u r r a n d o m l y s e l e c t e d p i c t u r e s . B e c a u s e a w i d e r r a n g e of n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e s and n u m b e r s w a s a v a i l a b l e i n s c e n e s 1 and 2, t h e s e w e r e s a m p l e d t w i c e as i n t e n s i v e l y as w e r e s c e n e s 3 a n d 4 . R e s u l t s and D i s c u s s i o n Of the 720 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s d i s t r i b u t e d , 681, or 94 p e r cent , w e r e r e t u r n e d a n d u s a b l e . P r e f e r e n c e s w e r e m e a s u r e d i n h u n d r e d t h s of the p r e -f e r e n c e c o l u m n h e i g h t s , and a l l i n f o r m a t i o n c o d e d on c o m p u t e r c a r d s . P r e -l i m i n a r y m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n r e v e a l e d the b u l k of the v a r i a b i l i t y to be a s s o -c i a t e d w i t h the d i s t a n c e to , and n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s, the b a c k g r o u n d s c e n e , 1 0 NUMBER OF NE IGHBOURS 0 1 2 3 4 5 OC ID o CQ I (3 Ul HI OC < Lil Z LU O z < C/5 50 90 124 180 300 500 >500 © © e SCENE 1 50 90 124 180 300 500 >500 0 1 2 3 4 5 <5 © © © © SCENE 2 50 90 124 180 300 500 >500 0 1 2 3 4 5 9 © 9 50 90 124 180 300 500 >500 0 1 2 3 4 5 © 0 SCENE 3 SCENE 4 F i g u r e 1 . C o m b i n a t i o n s of s c e n e , d i s t a n c e to, a n d n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s r e p r e s e n t e d by p i c t u r e s r e p r o d u c e d i n P l a t e 1 . Plate 1 SCENES 1 to 4 (LEFT TO RIGHT) WITH PORCH AND NEIGHBOURING HOUSE(S) SUPER IMPOSED 1 2 a n d p i c t u r e g r o u p . T h e r e w a s no i n d i c a t i o n that a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n of the r e s p o n s e v a r i a t i o n w a s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h age, sex , m a r i t a l s t a t u s , i n c o m e , or a n y of the " p e o p l e " v a r i a b l e s . T h a t i s to say , v a r i a t i o n i n r e s p o n s e to a s p e c i f i c s t i m u l u s on a g i v e n o c c u r r e n c e w a s v e r y l o w and a p p a r e n t l y not the r e s u l t of d i f f e r e n c e s i n r e s p o n d e n t s . H o w e v e r , s i g n i f i c a n t r e s p o n s e d i f f e r e n c e s d i d o c c u r b e t w e e n o c c u r r e n c e s of a s p e c i f i c s t i m u l u s . T h a t i s , the p r e f e r e n c e r a t i n g g i v e n a p a r t i c u l a r p i c t u r e v a r i e d w i t h the g r o u p of f o u r p i c t u r e s w i t h w h i c h i t w a s s h o w n . I n i t i a l e f f o r t s w e r e t h e r e f o r e d i r e c t e d t o w a r d a n e x p l a n a t i o n of t h i s s o u r c e of v a r i a t i o n , so that r e s p o n s e s m i g h t be a d j u s t e d a n d p o o l e d f o r the a n a l y s i s of v a r i a b i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h n e i g h b o u r n u m b e r , d i s t a n c e , a n d b a c k g r o u n d s c e n e . P r e f e r e n c e s a r e r e l a t i v e . S o m e t h i n g c a n be p r e f e r r e d o n l y a f t e r c o m -p a r i n g i t w i t h s o m e t h i n g e l s e . A c c o r d i n g l y , p r e f e r e n c e s r e c o r d e d w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p of f o u r p i c t u r e s w e r e m a d e w i t h r e f e r e n c e to o t h e r p i c t u r e s i n that g r o u p . S u p p o s e a r e c o r d e d p r e f e r e n c e (E) i s a t r a n s f o r m a t i o n on a r e a l p r e f e r e n c e (R), so tha t w h e r e the c o n s t a n t i s d e p e n d e n t o n l y upon the p a r t i c u l a r g r o u p of f o u r p i c t u r e s . T h e n a l l s u c h t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s a r e w h e r e P and Q a r e c o n s t a n t s s p e c i f i c to e a c h p a r t i c u l a r g r o u p (I) of p i c t u r e s of s cene (J). T h o s e v a l u e s of P(I) a n d Q(I) w h i c h m i n i m i z e v a r i a t i o n b e t w e e n m e a n r e s p o n s e s to s e p a r a t e o c c u r r e n c e s of the s a m e p i c t u r e w e r e f o u n d i t e r a t i v e l y and the se t of a d j u s t e d p r e f e r e n c e s (R) o b t a i n e d ( T a b l e I V ) . ( E i - Eg) = c o n s t a n t x ( R x - R 2 ) ( 1 ) E ( I , J) = P(I) x R ( L J) + Q(I) ( 2 ) T a b l e I i l l u s t r a t e s the s i g n i f i c a n c e ' of the P , Q t r a n s f o r m a t i o n . T A B L E I . S i g n i f i c a n c e of d a t a a d j u s t m e n t b y the P , Q t r a n s f o r m . ( A l l v a r i a t i o n b e t w e e n o c c u r r e n c e s of g i v e n p i c t u r e s . ) S i g n i f i -S o u r c e of V a r i a t i o n d . f . ss m s F c a n c e R e m o v e d by f i t t i n g P , Q 96 1.8639 0 .0194 4 .04 99.9 % ( r e g r e s s i o n ) R e m a i n i n g a f t e r f i t t i n g 65 0.30 95 0 .0048 ( r e s i d u a l ) B e f o r e f i t t i n g P , Q 161 2 .1734 (total) T a b l e I V a n d the above a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e i l l u s t r a t e the a d v a n t a g e of the P , Q t r a n s f o r m . Indeed , the r e d u c t i o n i n r e s p o n s e v a r i a t i o n b e t w e e n o c c u r -r e n c e s of a s p e c i f i c s t i m u l u s ( p i c t u r e ) i s s u c h that a d j u s t e d r e s p o n s e s c a n be p o o l e d f o r a n a l y s i s of v a r i a t i o n a t t r i b u t a b l e to the n u m b e r of a n d d i s t a n c e to n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e s . A g a i n , p r e f e r e n c e s a r e r e l a t i v e . T h e a d j u s t e d set (R) r e f l e c t s p r e -f e r e n c e f o r one p i c t u r e i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h o t h e r s s h a r i n g the s a m e b a c k -g r o u n d s c e n e . C o n s i d e r i n g o n l y the e f f e c t of d i s t a n c e to n e a r e s t p e r c e i v e d n e i g h b o u r , s u p p o s e a change i n p r e f e r e n c e (AR) d e p e n d s u p o n : (1) the l e v e l of p r e f e r e n c e p r e v a i l i n g b e f o r e the change (R); (2) the m a g n i t u d e of the c h a n g e i n n e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e (AD); and, (3) the n e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e e x i s t i n g b e f o r e the change (D), s u c h that w h e r e R , A R , D , a n d A D a r e a s d e f i n e d a b o v e , a n d ot i s s o m e c o n s t a n t . By-a s s u m i n g s m a l l A R a n d A D , a n d a c o n t i n u o u s f u n c t i o n , t h e n r e - a r r a n g i n g , we o b t a i n | d R = c t g I D (4) . w h i c h , u p o n i n t e g r a t i o n , y i e l d s I n R = a l n D + c . (5) C o n s i d e r t h e i n t e g r a t i o n c o n s t a n t c to b e r e l a t e d to a s e c o n d c o n s t a n t k a s f o l l o w s : c = I n k . (6) S u b s t i t u t i n g (6) i n (5) a b o v e a n d t a k i n g a n t i l o g s , w e o b t a i n R = k D ° \ (7) U s i n g s i m i l a r a s s u m p t i o n s a n d a r g u m e n t , a h y p o t h e t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n the a d j u s t e d p r e f e r e n c e s e t (R) a n d t h e n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s v i s i b l e (N) c a n b e e x p r e s s e d a s R = k ' N ^ (8) w h e r e k ' a n d j8 a r e c o n s t a n t s c o m p a r a b l e w i t h k a n d a i n e q u a t i o n (7) . E q u a t i o n s (7) a n d (8) a r e p r e c i s e l y t h e f o r m t a k e n b y W e b e r ' s L a w ( S t e v e n s , I 9 6 0 ) . T h i s n o w c l a s s i c " p o w e r f u n c t i o n " of p s y c h o p h y s i c s i s g e n e r a l l y e x p r e s s e d a s Y = k $ m (9) w h e r e Y i s t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e t o s o m e p h y s i c a l s t i m u l u s $, k a c o n s t a n t , a n d m s o m e p o w e r w h i c h v a r i e s b e t w e e n s t i m u l i . G i v e n t h e i r s i m i l a r i t y w i t h t h i s w e l l - d o c u m e n t e d l a w of p s y c h o l o g y ( E k m a n a n d S j o b e r g , 1965) , e q u a t i o n s (7) a n d (8) o f f e r e d p r o m i s e a s c o m p o n e n t s of a m a t h e m a t i c a l d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e a n d t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s u n d e r s t u d y . M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s i n i t i a l l y t e s t e d t h e r e f o r e e m p l o y e d t h e s e v a r i a b l e s i n a v a r i e t y of c o m b i n a -15 t i o n s and w i t h a r a n g e of p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s , r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of w h i c h a r e s h o w n i n T a b l e I I . Of the v a r i a t i o n s p o s s i b l e , the f o r m o f f e r i n g the g r e a t e s t p r o m i s e w a s R = A + B D f f N ^ . (10) T A B L E I I . M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s i n i t i a l l y t e s t e d , v a r i a n c e r a t i o s (F) , s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s ( S i g n i f . ) , and c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e -l a t i o n . ( C o n s i d e r i n g o n l y w i t h i n s c e n e v a r i a t i o n . ) M o d e l F S i g n i f . ( % ) C o e f f i c i e n t of C o r r e l a t i o n R = A + B i D 1 + B 3 N 1 19.5 95 .68 R = A + Bx D _ 1 + B 2 N 1 46 .9 95 .79 R = A + B x D " * 5 + B 2 N 1 47 .4 95 .79 R = A + B D - 1 N 1 53.3 95 .80 U s i n g e q u a t i o n (10) as the m o d e l a n d f i t t i n g a a n d /3 to a l l d a t a , v a l u e s of t h o s e p a r a m e t e r s w e r e sought w h i c h m i n i m i z e d r e s i d u a l s u m s of s q u a r e s . T r i a l v a l u e s of /3 c o n v e r g e d qui te r a p i d l y to an o p t i m u m 0 .5 + .2 (90 p e r cent C . I . ) . The p a r a m e t e r a c o n v e r g e d v e r y s l o w l y to an o p t i m u m -1 .0 + .5 (90 p e r cent C . I . ) . T h e e x t r e m e l y h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n d e p e n d e n t a n d i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s ( T a b l e III and F i g u r e 2) a r e i n i t i a l l y c a u s e f o r a l a r m . S u c h c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e s e l d o m f o u n d e x c e p t w h e n c o m p a r i n g s o m e t h i n g w i t h i t s e l f . T h e r e i s i n d e e d the p o s s i b i l i t y that p e o p l e w e r e r e s p o n d i n g to the q u e s t i o n s , " H o w m a n y h o u s e s a r e t h e r e ? " , and, " H o w f a r a w a y i s the n e i g h b o u r ? " B u t , s i n c e s c o r e s w e r e r e c o r d e d on " p r e f e r e n c e " c o l u m n s , t h e s e m a y be v a l i d q u e s t i o n s . S u c h h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e not u n c o m m o n i n p s y c h o l o g i c a l ( Z D U I -U D LU LY LL 100 90 I BO 70 GO 50 40 30 SO 10 X X X v + + > + S C E N E 1 x S C E N E 2 > S C E N E 3 V S C E N E 4 V 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r 10 SO 30 40 50 BO 70 BO 90 100 OBSERVED R Figure 2 . Observed (adjusted) preferences versus those predicted by the regression equation for each scene. 17 i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , o r t h o s e w h o s e t e c h n i q u e s a r e b o r r o w e d f r o m that f i e l d ( M a s u d a a n d H o l m e s , 1967). -1 .5 T A B L E III . P a r a m e t e r s A and B of the r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l R = A - B D N , v a r i a n c e r a t i o s (F) , s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s ( S i g n i f . ) , and c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e l a t i o n f o r e a c h of the s c e n e s i n P l a t e 1. S c e n e F B F S i g n i f . (%) C o e f f i c i e n t of C o r r e l a t i o n 1 74 2750 52.6 99 .93 2 70 2550 157.8 99 .97 3 . 73 2100 230 .2 99 .99 4 88 1950 17.6 95 .92 A l l 72 2150 77.4 99 .85 I n t e r p r e t i n g T a b l e III and F i g u r e 3, one m i g h t a t t r i b u t e v a r i a t i o n i n p a r a m e t e r A to d i f f e r e n t i n i t i a l q u a l i t i e s of the s c e n e s p r e s e n t e d , but l i t t l e s i g n i f i c a n c e c a n be a t t a c h e d to t h o s e d i f f e r e n c e s h e r e . S t u d i e s l i k e t h o s e of F i n e s (1968) and S h a f e r , et a l . , (1969), a r e d i r e c t e d t o w a r d a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the p r o c e s s b y w h i c h i n i t i a l p r e f e r e n c e s f o r d i f f e r e n t s c e n e s o r l a n d s c a p e s a r e m a d e . V a r i a t i o n i n the p a r a m e t e r B ( T a b l e III) c a n be i n t e r p r e t e d as a m e a s u r e of the s e n s i t i v i t y of a p a r t i c u l a r s c e n e (or e n v i r o n m e n t ) to the e f f e c t s of p o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e , a c o n c e r n of P e t e r s o n and N e u m a n n (1969). T h e c o m -p a r a t i v e l y l o w w e i g h t g i v e n B i n s c e n e 4 m i g h t be a r e s u l t of the p r o x i m a t e w a t e r f r o n t , r e f l e c t i n g a g r e a t e r c a p a c i t y of that e n v i r o n m e n t to a b s o r b p o p u -l a t i o n p r e s s u r e o r , c o n v e r s e l y , to s u p p l y p e o p l e w i t h the r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e they s e e k . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , B c a n be c o n s i d e r e d a m e a s u r e of the i m p a c t of d e v e l o p m e n t u p o n the r e c r e a t i o n a l q u a l i t y of an e n v i r o n m e n t . J a c o b s and W a y (1969) i n i t i a t e d m o s t i m p o r t a n t w o r k i n t o the c a p a c i t y of an e n v i r o n m e n t to a b s o r b or m a s k s i g n s of d e v e l o p m e n t o r , i n the c o n t e x t of t h i s s t u d y , to i d e n t i f y the e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e t e r m i n a n t s of the p a r a m e t e r B . 18 T A B L E I V . A t a b u l a r c o m p a r i s o n of u n a d j u s t e d (E) , a d j u s t e d (R), and p r e d i c t e d m e a n e v a l u a t i o n s of p i c t u r e s s h o w n i n P l a t e 1. U n a d j u s t e d A d j u s t e d P r e d i c t e d D i s t a n c e S c ene P i c t u r e M e a n S E M e a n S E M e a n N u m b e r to n e a r -(E) (R) R = A + B D ~ 1 N H o u s e s es t ( f t . ) 1 88 5 85 2 74 0 2 70 8 . 70 5 69 1 500 3 55 10 58 3 65 1 300 4 55 18 54 7 59 1 180 5 43 12 46 4 52 1 124 6 33 13 36 3 43 1 90 7 57 13 55 4 52 2 180 8 30 16 36 2 21 3 90 9 21 8 0 3 6 5 90 1 73 11 71 1 70 0 2 78 8 70 3 65 1 500 3 74 8 63 2 62 1 300 4 57 12 54 2 56 1 180 5 55 8 44 4 49 1 124 6 53 10 45 3 42 1 90 7 63 12 55 1 58 2 300 8 37 8 33 2 20 3 90 9 21 7 12 2 13 4 90 LO 26 13 24 2 30 2 90 L l 13 6 2 6 7 5 90 1 75 4 73 0 73 0 2 66 3 69 2 69 1 500 3 64 11 67 3 66 1 300 4 57 12 6 4 2 61 1 180 5 43 10 57 0 56 1 124 6 37 14 49 1 50 1 90 1 82 8 8 3 5 88 0 2 71 9 71 5 66 1 90 3 63 7 62 3 49 1 50 4 46 13 45 8 39 1 50 5 23 9 24 • 3 55 2 50 1 9 DISTANCE TO NEAREST NEIGHBOUR (FEET) F i g u r e 3. S u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e v e r s u s d i s t a n c e t o n e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r , s c e n e s 1-4, one h o u s e v i s i b l e . 20 F i n a l l y , the distance between neighbouring houses (D) can be t r a n s -f o r m e d to the s i z e of the lots they occupy (L.S) by a s s u m i n g lot a r e a to be that of a c i r c l e the diameter of which is the given distance. Hence, LS = n(D/2) 2. (11) Substituting this r e l a t i o n s h i p in equation (10) y i e l d s the e x p r e s s i o n R = A + B ^ (12) to d e s c r i b e the r e l a t i o n s h i p between subjective p r e f e r e n c e and lot s i z e ( F i g u r e 4 ) . A l l of the foregoing supports the notion that e n v i r o n m e n t a l quality is affected by p e r c e i v e d population density. Indeed, subjective p r e f e r e n c e for summer cottage lots d e c r e a s e s with their p e r c e i v e d s i z e a c c o r d i n g to a r e l a t i o n s h i p which obeys a well e s t a b l i s h e d law of psychology. Two p r i n c i p a l c o n c l u s i o n s may be drawn: (1) The s u b d i v i s i o n of lots to s i z e s below two a c r e s may be a ccompanied by a r a t h e r r a p i d d e c r e a s e i n quality. (2) Change i n the quality of subdivided land i s at least p a r t l y density dependent. The i m p l i c a t i o n s of the f i r s t c o n c l u s i o n s e e m i n i t i a l l y obvious. But let me be the f i r s t objector to an i m p l i e d bylaw p r o h i b i t i n g s u b d i v i s i o n of l a n d into p a r c e l s l e s s than two a c r e s . Only one of a multitude of d i mensions which c o l l e c t i v e l y constitute quality i s c o n s i d e r e d here. Certainly, there a r e those who argue quite fervently, and I b e l i e v e rightly, that a suburban environment where the population i s u n i f o r m l y d i s t r i b u t e d is s t e r i l e . In the context of the Gulf Islands of B r i t i s h Columbia, a two-acre m i n i m u m lot s i z e for future s u b d i v i s i o n s might indeed be valid, for there is r e l i e f f r o m the higher d e n s i t i e s of the c i t i e s , and the c a p a b i l i t y of r e c r e a t i o n a l lands to function in that capacity must be maintained. F i g u r e 4. P r e f e r e n c e v e r s u s l o t s i z e . A l l s c e n e s , one h o u s e v i s i b l e . 22 M o s t i m p o r t a n t , h o w e v e r , i s the i m p l i c a t i o n of the s e c o n d c o n c l u s i o n . T h e m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n f o u n d to r e l a t e u n c o n s t r a i n e d p r e f e r e n c e to v i s i b l e s i g n s of d e n s i t y s u g g e s t s a m e t h o d f o r h a n d l i n g m a n y d i m e n s i o n s of q u a l i t y i n the c o n t e x t of a s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . B y s i m p l y e x p a n d i n g the p a r a -m e t e r s of e q u a t i o n (10) to v e c t o r s , m a t r i c e s o r e q u a t i o n s , d e f i n i n g A as r e l a t i v e q u a l i t y b e f o r e d e v e l o p m e n t b e g i n s , and B the r a t e at w h i c h the s i g n s of i n c r e a s i n g d e n s i t y ( v i s u a l , a u d i o , o r o l i f a c t o r y . ) i m p r o v e u p o n or d e t r a c t f r o m A , the s k e l e t o n of a s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l a p p e a r s , an e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o -g r a m s u r f a c e s , and a u s e f u l t o o l f o r t h o s e c o n c e r n e d w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i s p r o m i s e d . S u c h a t o o l c o u l d be i n f i n i t e l y v a l u a b l e b o t h to t h o s e w h o s e e k to p r e s e r v e e n v i r o n m e n t s , and to those who w i s h to d e v e l o p t h e m , f o r i t c o u l d f o s t e r m o r e e f f e c t i v e c o m m u n i c a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e m . 23 P R O D U C T I O N C O S T V E R S U S L O T S I Z E S i n c e the q u a l i t y of cot tage l o t s i s at l e a s t p a r t l y d e t e r m i n e d by t h e i r s i z e , t h o s e e c o n o m i c f o r c e s i n f l u e n c i n g l o t s i z e a s s u m e n e w i m p o r t a n c e . If the p r o d u c t i o n or m a i n t e n a n c e of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i s , o r s h o u l d c o m e to be , a s o c i a l p r i o r i t y , then r e s p o n s e to e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a l o n e m i g h t p r o d u c e a l e s s t h a n o p t i m u m l o t s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n . D e f i n i t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n p r o d u c t i o n c o s t and lo t s i z e i s t h e r e f o r e n e c e s s a r y f o r c o m p a r i s o n w i t h the q u a l i t y - s i z e f u n c t i o n d e v e l o p e d e a r l i e r . T h e e m p i r i c a l d e f i n i t i o n of a g e n e r a l i z e d t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n f o r the s u b d i v i s i o n of cot tage l o t s s e e m s a n i m p e r t i n e n t u n d e r t a k i n g . T h e t r e m e n -d o u s n u m b e r of v a r i a b l e s i n v o l v e d and the r e l u c t a n c e of d e v e l o p e r s to d i s -c l o s e d a t a p r e d i c t f a i l u r e f r o m the o u t s e t . Y e t r u l e s of t h u m b and g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h e s to p r o d u c t i o n c o s t e s t i m a t i o n s a r e not u n c o m m o n ( B l i s s , 1957; M a s h k e , 1963; W a g n e r , 1957); d e t a i l e d t r e a t m e n t s of the s p e c i f i c a t i o n s a n d r e q u i r e m e n t s of s o m e c o m m u n i t i e s c a n be f o u n d ( M c K e e v e r , 1968); and, i n d e e d , m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l s of c a s h f l o w s have b e e n b u i l t to o p t i m i z e the r e t u r n f r o m l o n g - t e r m , l a r g e - s c a l e d e v e l o p m e n t s (Wendt , 1967). H o w e v e r , a v a i l a b l e m o d e l s of d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s c o n s i d e r s p e c i f i c s e r v i c e s ( s e w e r s ) a n d o n l y the r e g i o n of i n c r e a s i n g r e t u r n s to s c a l e ( D o w n i n g , 1969), or r e t r e a t to the u n t e s t a b l e ( S m i t h , 1969) . O n e p r a c t i t i o n e r ( T h o m s e n , 1968) h a s f o u n d and p u b l i s h e d the g e n e r a l f o r m of a c o s t c u r v e p r e d i c t e d b y c l a s s i c a l e c o n o m i c t h e o r y 1 , and P e a r s o n (1965) h a s d e t a i l e d the c o s t s of s u b d i v i d i n g s e v e r a l a c r e a g e s in to v a r i o u s s i z e d l o t s at s e r v i c i n g l e v e l s r e q u i r e d by l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s ( T a b l e V ) . T h e f i r s t p r o v i d e s the i m p e t u s to a t t e m p t m a t h e m a t i c a l d e s c r i p t i o n of a g e n e r a l i z e d t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n , the s e c o n d e m p i r i c a l d a t a w i t h w h i c h to t e s t i t s w o r t h . 1 F e r g u s o n , C . E . 1966. M i c r o e c o n o m i c T h e o r y . I r w i n . H o m e w o o d , I l l i n o i s , p. 170. 24 L e t the t o t a l c o s t ( T C ) of p r o d u c i n g a n u m b e r of l o t s be c o m p r i s e d of l a n d p u r c h a s e (P) a n d s u b d i v i s i o n (S) c o s t s , so that T C = P + S (13) N o w c o n s i d e r l a n d p u r c h a s e (P) a l o n e , and l e t the a r e a to be s u b d i v i d e d be g a c r e s . If t h e s e g a c r e s a r e p u r c h a s e d f o r b d o l l a r s p e r a c r e , P = bg (14) a n d the t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n b e c o m e s T C = bg + S . (15) N o w a l l o w g a c r e s to be s u b d i v i d e d i n t o n l o t s of s i z e s, and l e t s o m e un-s t a t e d p r o p o r t i o n of s r e p r e s e n t that l a n d u s e d f o r r o a d s , p a r k s , s c h o o l s , a n d o t h e r p u b l i c p r o p e r t y so that g = n s . (16) S u b s t i t u t i n g (16) i n (15) above , we o b t a i n T C - b s n + S . (17) N e x t , c o n s i d e r the c o n t r i b u t i o n of l e g a l , s u r v e y , and r e a l t y f ees to s u b -d i v i s i o n c o s t s (S). S u c h f e e s a r e f r e q u e n t l y c a l c u l a t e d as a p r o p o r t i o n of the m a r k e t p r i c e of the p r o p e r t y i n q u e s t i o n a n d c a n t h e r e f o r e be m o d e l l e d a s s o m e p r o p o r t i o n (k) of the s e l l i n g p r i c e (r) of the n l o t s p r o d u c e d . S = k r n (18) T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p h o l d s e v e n f o r the p a r t i c u l a r case w h e r e g a c r e s a r e b o u g h t and t h e n s o l d i n t a c t , f o r t h e r e j u s t one l o t i s p r o d u c e d . N o w c o n s i d e r that l a n d and l a b o u r a r e the two i n p u t s r e q u i r e d f o r co t tage l o t p r o d u c t i o n . O n e of t h e s e i n p u t s m a y be d e c r e a s e d and a g i v e n 25 l e v e l of p r o d u c t i o n m a i n t a i n e d o n l y b y i n c r e a s i n g the o t h e r i n p u t . 2 T h a t i s to say , t e n l o t s m i g h t be p r o d u c e d f r o m f i f t y a c r e s of l a n d w i t h a s m a l l a m o u n t of l a b o u r . T o p r o d u c e t e n l o t s f r o m one a c r e , a d d i t i o n a l w a t e r m u s t be t r a n s -p o r t e d to the s i t e , m o r e e l a b o r a t e w a s t e d i s p o s a l s y s t e m s m u s t be b u i l t , and r o a d s m u s t be m o r e d u r a b l e . The c o s t of s e r v i c i n g a s i n g l e l o t m a y t h e r e f o r e be c o n s i d e r e d i n v e r s e l y p r o p o r t i o n a l to i t s s i z e (s) . T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s c o n v e n i e n t l y i n c l u d e d i n the s u b d i v i s i o n c o s t s (S) by m o d i f y i n g e q u a t i o n (18) as f o l l o w s . S = k r n (1 (19) w h e r e L i s a c o n s t a n t d e s c r i b i n g the t e c h n o l o g y a v a i l a b l e f o r s e r v i c i n g l o t s . T h e e x p r e s s i o n — r e p r e s e n t s a d d i t i o n s to s u b d i v i s i o n c o s t s w h i c h r e s u l t f r o m l o t s m a l l n e s s . W h e r e t e c h n o l o g y i s i n e x p e n s i v e and h i g h l y d e v e l o p e d , o r not r e q u i r e d to a d e q u a t e l y s e r v i c e s m a l l l o t s , L i s v e r y s m a l l . B u t w h e r e a d d i -t i o n a l w a t e r m u s t be i m p o r t e d , s e w a g e e x p o r t e d , or o ther e x p e n s i v e t e c h n o -l o g i c a l p r o b l e m s a r i s e as l o t s b e c o m e s m a l l e r , L m a y be a d j u s t e d u p w a r d to a c c o u n t f o r t h o s e d i f f i c u l t i e s . T u r n i n g f i n a l l y to the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t o t a l c o s t a n d n u m b e r of l o t s p r o d u c e d , t r a d i t i o n s u g g e s t s r e g i o n s of i n c r e a s i n g a n d d e c r e a s i n g r e t u r n s to s c a l e . B e c a u s e s u c h a c u r v e i s c o m p l e x m a t h e m a t i c a l l y , the o t h e r c o s t - p r o d u c t i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p s h i g h l y s i m p l i f i e d , and p r o d u c t i o n a l w a y s i n the r e g i o n of d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s a n y w a y , 3 no r e g i o n of i n c r e a s i n g r e t u r n s i s i n c l u d e d h e r e . S i n c e the a i m of t h i s e x e r c i s e i s to p r o d u c e a g e n e r a l i z e d t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n w h i c h c a n be t u n e d to a g i v e n set of c o n d i t i o n s , a l l f e a t u r e s of the f u n c t i o n m u s t be f l e x i b l e . W i t h r e s p e c t to a r e g i o n of d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s , t h i s f l e x i b i l i t y m u s t p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t y to a d j u s t (1) the l e v e l of p r o d u c t i o n w h e r e d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s b e g i n to o c c u r , and (2) the r a t e at s F e r g u s o n , o p . c i t . , p . 157. 3 F e r g u s o n , o p . c i t . , p . 197. 26 w h i c h r e t u r n s d i m i n i s h . T h e s e o b j e c t i v e s a r e m e t s i m p l y and c o n v e n i e n t l y b y m o d i f y i n g e q u a t i o n (19) as f o l l o w s : S = k r n (1 +—) + m ( e p n - 1) (20) s w h e r e m and p a r e c o n s t a n t s . T h e p a r a m e t e r m e f f e c t i v e l y d e t e r m i n e s e n t r e p r e n e u r e f f i c i e n c y , o r the n u m b e r of l o t s w h i c h c a n be p r o d u c e d b e f o r e d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s b e g i n to o c c u r . O n c e begun, the r a t e at w h i c h r e t u r n s d i m i n i s h i s d e t e r m i n e d b y the p a r a m e t e r p . S u b s t i t u t i n g (20) i n (17), the t o t a l c o s t e q u a t i o n n o w b e c o m e s T C = b s n + k r n ( l +—) + m ( e P n - 1). (21) 5 A l t h o u g h e u q a t i o n (21) i s h i g h l y s i m p l i f i e d , the i n p u t c o n s t a n t s p r o v i d e the f l e x i b i l i t y r e q u i r e d to a c c o m m o d a t e s u b d i v i s i o n p r o b l e m s of d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n s . A g r a p h i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n ( F i g u r e 5) of e q u a t i o n (21), u s i n g a not u n r e a l i s t i c set of i n p u t v a l u e s , m a t c h e s P e a r s o n ' s (1965) d a t a ( T a b l e V) w i t h r e a s o n a b l e a c c u r a c y . If a s k e d to p l a c e a v a l u e on s o m e t h i n g , one m i g h t w e l l c i t e i t s p r o d u c -t i o n c o s t . T w o m e a s u r e s of c o s t w i t h w h i c h to c o m p a r e s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e s a r e t h e r e f o r e m a r g i n a l a n d a v e r a g e d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s of cot tage l o t s . A v e r a g e c o s t i s s i m p l y the t o t a l c o s t of a s u b d i v i s i o n d i v i d e d b y the n u m b e r of l o t s i t c o n t a i n s . M a r g i n a l c o s t i s the a d d i t i o n to t o t a l c o s t a t t r i b u t a b l e to the p r o -d u c t i o n of one. m o r e l o t . C o m p a r i s o n of F i g u r e 6 w i t h F i g u r e 4 l e a d s r a p i d l y to the c o n c l u s i o n that s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e c h a n g e s w i t h d i m i n i s h i n g l o t s i z e q u i t e d i f f e r e n t l y f r o m the w a y i n w h i c h a v e r a g e and m a r g i n a l c o s t s change w i t h d i m i n i s h i n g l o t s i z e . M o r e o v e r , a d e v e l o p e r r e s p o n d i n g to e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a l o n e w o u l d p r o d u c e l o t s of a s i z e d i c t a t e d by the i n t e r s e c t i o n of m a r g i n a l r e v e n u e w i t h m a r g i n a l c o s t above a v e r a g e c o s t . T h a t i s to say , u n d e r the c o n d i t i o n s l i s t e d b e l o w F i g u r e 5, a d e v e l o p e r w o u l d o n l y p r o d u c e l o t s l e s s t h a n 1 - 3 / 4 a c r e s , T A B L E V . S u b d i v i s i o n C o s t s (160 a c r e s ) L o t S i z e N o . L o t s C o s t p e r l o t ($) S e r v i c i n g L e v e l F u l l P a r t i a l M i n i m a l T o t a l S u b d i v i s i o n C o s t s ($) S e r v i c i n g L e v e l F u l l P a r t i a l M i n i m a l 2, 500 f t . (.06 ac) 1614 1135 685 401 1 ,831,933 1 ,105 ,433 647 ,325 5,000 f t . 2 (.11 ac) 939 1588 984 60 3 1 ,491, 543 923 ,892 566,061 10,000 f t . 2 ' (.23 ac) 532 121961 i i 1457 90 5 1 ,168,356 775 ,060 4 8 1 , 6 2 5 40 ,000 f t . 2 ( . 9 2 ac) 150 5421 3594 2419 813 ,143 539 ,084 362,818 5. ac 30 7833 235,000 A f t e r P e a r s o n (1965). T h e 5 a c r e c o s t s w e r e c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g that a u t h o r ' s f i g u r e s a n d p r o v i d i n g g r a v e l r o a d s on ly , a n d d e v e l o p e r ' s l a n d c o s t s a r e a s s u m e d to be $ 1 6 0 , 0 0 0 . T h e b o x e d f i g u r e s a r e t h o s e w h i c h p r o v i d e a d e q u a t e s e r v i c i n g to l o t s of c o r r e s p o n d i n g s i z e ( P e a r s o n ) a n d a r e p l o t t e d i n F i g u r e s 9 a n d 10. + AFTER PEARSON (1965) AND TABLE V TC = bsn + krn (1 +^ )+ m(e p n-1) i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 r 1 2 3 4 5 LOT S IZE ( A C R E S ) 5 . D e v e l o p m e n t c o s t v e r s u s l o t s i z e , 160 a c r e s u b d i v i s i o n . A s s u m p t i o n s : 1 . e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g p r i c e p e r l o t $6 , 000 ; 2 . d e v e l o p e r ' s l a n d c o s t $ 1 , 000 p e r a c r e ; 3 . l e g a l , s u r v e y a n d r e a l t y f e e s = 15% of s e l l i n g p r i c e ; 4 . l o t s i z e at w h i c h m a r g i n a l c o s t h a s i n c r e a s e d 10% b e -c a u s e of s m a l l n e s s = 0 . 5 a c . ; 5 . 10% p e n a l t y at the m a r g i n , f o r d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s to s c a l e a f t e r d e v e l o p i n g 1000 l o t s ; 6 . 20% p e n a l t y at the m a r g i n , f o r d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s to s c a l e a f t e r d e v e l o p i n g 2000 l o t s . 2.+ 29 F i g u r e 6. A v e r a g e and m a r g i n a l d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t v e r s u s l o t s i z e , 160 a c r e s u b d i v i s i o n . A s s u m p t i o n s as L i s t e d b e n e a t h F i g u r e 5. 30 a n d of ten v e r y m u c h s m a l l e r t h a n t h a t . T o p r e v e n t c o n c o m i t a n t e n v i r o n -m e n t a l q u a l i t y l o s s e s , c o s t c r i t e r i a m u s t be m o d i f i e d a n d t r a d i t i o n a l l y we l o o k to the m a r k e t to p r o v i d e the n e c e s s a r y c o r r e c t i n g i n f l u e n c e . T h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n t h e r e f o r e e x a m i n e s the i n f l u e n c e of p a r c e l s i z e i n m a r k e t p r i c e d e t e r m i n a t i o n s . 31 M A R K E T V A L U E V E R S U S L O T S I Z E B e c a u s e l a n d t e n u r e a s s u m e s s u c h a d o m i n a n t r o l e i n o u r s o c i e t y , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g that e x t e n s i v e d a t a c o n c e r n i n g l a n d o w n e r s h i p a r e to be f o u n d i n g o v e r n m e n t a l o f f i c e s . A l t h o u g h r e c o r d k e e p i n g s y s t e m s h a v e c h a n g e d , t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t c o n t i n u i t y to c a r r y out i n t e n s i v e s t u d i e s of the h i s t o r y of l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t . T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n e x a m i n e s the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n the s i z e and m a r k e t p r i c e of p a r c e l s of G u l f I s l a n d l a n d . If the p r i c e p a i d f o r a g i v e n p a r c e l of l a n d i s e x p e c t e d to v a r y w i t h i t s s i z e , i t m u s t a l s o be e x p e c t e d to v a r y w i t h the s u i t a b i l i t y of the p a r c e l f o r the b u y e r ' s n e e d s . A n a g r i c u l t u r a l i s t w o u l d l i k e l y p a y a h i g h e r p r i c e f o r t i l l a b l e l a n d t h a n he w o u l d f o r a s teep r o c k y h i l l s i d e . A s d e v e l o p e d e a r l i e r , s l o p e , p r o x i m i t y to w a t e r , and c e r t a i n v e g e t a t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e t h r e e d e t e r -m i n a n t s of q u a l i t y i n the c o n t e x t of o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . S i n c e m a r k e t d a t a a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s s t u d y i n c l u d e p r e c i s e d e s c r i p t i o n s of p a r c e l l o c a t i o n s , s l o p e s and p r o x i m i t y to w a t e r c o u l d be d e f i n e d f o r e a c h . V e g e t a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , h o w e v e r , a r e s u b j e c t to r a t h e r r a p i d c h a n g e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i f one c o n s i d e r s the p r e s e n c e of t r e e s to be i m p o r t a n t . B e c a u s e v e g e t a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s at the t i m e s a l e s took p l a c e a r e u n k n o w n , t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on m a r k e t p r i c e m u s t a p p e a r as u n e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e . B e c a u s e the o v e r a l l s t u d y w a s c o n f i n e d to the G u l f I s l a n d s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , s a m p l i n g w a s of p a r c e l s o n G a l i a n o , S a l t s p r i n g , M a y n e , S a t u r n a , N o r t h P e n d e r and S o u t h P e n d e r I s l a n d s , a n d the s m a l l i s l a n d s i n t h e i r i m m e d i a t e v i c i n i t y . D a t a r e q u i r e d w e r e : (1) p a r c e l s i z e ; (2) a v e r a g e s l o p e ; (3) d i s t a n c e f r o m the n e a r e s t w a t e r ( lake o r ocean) ; (4) p u r c h a s e p r i c e ; and (5) date of s a l e . In a d d i t i o n , s o m e m e t h o d of s t a n d a r d i z i n g d o l l a r v a l u e s t h r o u g h t i m e w a s r e q u i r e d . H i s t o r i c a l r e c o r d s of l a n d o w n e r s h i p , the s i z e of i n d i v i d u a l p a r c e l s , d a t e s of l a n d s a l e s , p r i c e s p a i d , and a w e a l t h of o t h e r d a t a o c c u r p a r t l y i n t a x a s s e s s m e n t r e c o r d s and p a r t l y i n P r o v i n c i a l L a n d R e g i s t r y f i l e s . T h e 32 l a t t e r , a l t h o u g h c o n t a i n i n g a l l i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d f o r the s t u d y d e s c r i b e d h e r e , a r e a c h r o n o l o g y of l a n d s u b d i v i s i o n and o w n e r s h i p c h a n g e s w i t h i n the p r o v i n c e . T h e y a r e t h e r e f o r e i n d e p e n d e n t of s p e c i f i c g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s of the p r o v i n c e . T a x a s s e s s m e n t r e c o r d s , on the o t h e r h a n d , a r e k e y e d to a g r i d e s t a b l i s h e d i n o r i g i n a l l a n d s u r v e y s . A l t h o u g h t h e s e r e c o r d s do not c o n t a i n m a r k e t p r i c e s a n d d a t e s of l a n d s a l e s , they do s tate the s i z e and p r e -c i s e l o c a t i o n of p a r c e l s of l a n d , a n d the " C e r t i f i c a t e of T i t l e " n u m b e r u n d e r w h i c h that d o c u m e n t i s f i l e d i n the L a n d R e g i s t r y . In a d d i t i o n , a s s e s s e d v a l u e s a r e u s u a l l y r e c o r d e d s e p a r a t e l y f o r l a n d and " i m p r o v e m e n t s . " W h i l e a s s e s s e d v a l u e s do not n e c e s s a r i l y m i m i c m a r k e t p r i c e s at any p o i n t i n t i m e , t h e y do p e r m i t s o m e e s t i m a t e of that p r o p o r t i o n of the p r i c e w h i c h bought the l a n d a n d that p r o p o r t i o n w h i c h bought the b u i l d i n g s on i t . D a t a C o l l e c t i o n and A n a l y s i s A s s e s s m e n t r o l l s of the a p p r o p r i a t e i s l a n d s f o r 1930, 1940, 1950, I960, a n d 1970 w e r e a v a i l a b l e f o r the s t u d y . O f t h e s e , the 1930 and 1940 r o l l s d i d n o t i n c l u d e " C e r t i f i c a t e of T i t l e " n u m b e r s r e q u i r e d to g a i n a c c e s s to m a r k e t v a l u e s f i l e d i n the L a n d R e g i s t r y . S a m p l i n g w a s t h e r e f o r e r e s t r i c t e d to the l a s t t h r e e a s s e s s m e n t r o l l s . R e q u i r e d i n f o r m a t i o n w a s r e c o r d e d f r o m a t e n p e r cent s y s t e m a t i c s a m p l i n g of e a c h l e d g e r . M a r k e t v a l u e s and t r a n s a c t i o n d a t e s w e r e l a t e r o b t a i n e d f r o m L a n d R e g i s t r y f i l e s a l o n g w i t h p l a n s of s u b -d i v i s i o n s w h i c h i n c l u d e d s a m p l e d l o t s . A v e r a g e s l o p e and d i s t a n c e to w a t e r w e r e r e c o r d e d f o r e a c h p a r c e l a f t e r l o c a t i n g i t o n a t o p o g r a p h i c m a p . A t l e a s t f o u r t y p e s of t r a n s a c t i o n s o c c u r i n L a n d R e g i s t r y d a t a : (1) r e g u l a r s a l e ; (2) i n h e r i t a n c e ; (3) s a l e f o r $1 and " n a t u r a l l o v e and a f f e c t i o n " ; a n d (4) the s u b d i v i s i o n of one p a r c e l i n t o s e v e r a l w h i c h a r e i n i t i a l l y r e g i s t e r e d i n the n a m e of the s u b d i v i d e r . S i n c e the l a t t e r t h r e e t y p e s of t r a n s f e r do not p r o v i d e a m a r k e t - d e t e r m i n e d p r i c e , they a r e e x c l u d e d f r o m the a n a l y s i s . A n o t h e r e f f e c t w h i c h c o u l d b i a s the a n a l y s i s i s change i n the r e l a t i v e v a l u e of d o l l a r s t h r o u g h t i m e . M a r k e t p r i c e s w e r e t h e r e f o r e s t a n d a r d i z e d 33 u s i n g the D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s t o t a l c o n s u m e r p r i c e i n d e x ( C P I ) a d j u s t e d to a c o m m o n b a s e y e a r ( C a n a d a Y e a r B o o k s 1914, 1946, a n d 1969). B e c a u s e the r e l a t i o n s h i p s d e v e l o p e d h e r e a r e to be e x a m i n e d i n the contex t of the G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r ( R e s o u r c e S c i e n c e C e n t r e , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ) , and p r i c e s i n that m o d e l a r e i n 1961 d o l l a r s , m a r k e t v a l u e s c o l l e c t e d i n t h i s s t u d y w e r e a l s o b r o u g h t to that s t a n d a r d , as f o l l o w s ; . n . T r a n s a c t i o n p r i c e * C P I (1961) P r i c e (1961 d o l l a r s ) = „ _ T f r r , c : s -C P I ( T r a n s a c t i o n y e a r ) T h e p r o p o r t i o n of the p r i c e w h i c h b r o u g h t the " i m p r o v e m e n t s " on e a c h p a r c e l w a s t h e n r e m o v e d to o b t a i n l a n d v a l u e s ( L V ) as f o l l o w s : T / , ^ / , -, n i > P r i c e (1 961 d o l l a r s ) * l a n d a s s e s s m e n t L V (1961 d o l l a r s ) = * - -t o t a l a s s e s s m e n t T h e v a l i d i t y of t h i s l a s t " c o r r e c t i o n " to o b s e r v e d p r i c e s i s q u e s t i o n a b l e s i n c e a s s e s s m e n t a n d m a r k e t p r i c e d e t e r m i n a t i o n s u s e d w e r e not n e c e s s a r i l y m a d e i n the s a m e y e a r . B u t b y u s i n g a s s e s s m e n t s m a d e i n , or a f t e r , the y e a r of s a l e , and a s s u m i n g that m a n y m o r e i m p r o v e m e n t s w e r e a d d e d t h a n r e m o v e d t h r o u g h t i m e , l a n d v a l u e s o b t a i n e d w i l l c o n s i s t e n t l y u n d e r e s t i m a t e l a n d p r i c e s , and t r e n d s i n m a r k e t p r i c e s w h i c h a p p e a r f r o m the a n a l y s i s s h o u l d r e f l e c t a c t u a l t r e n d s . T o e x a m i n e c o r r e c t e d p r i c e s f o r t r e n d s a l o n g t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e " l o t s i z e " , i t i s n e c e s s a r y to g r o u p the d a t a i n p a r c e l or l o t s i z e c l a s s e s . T h a t i s , i n d i v i d u a l l a n d h o l d i n g s v a r y i n s i z e f r o m l e s s t h a n 0.1 to o v e r 1000 a c r e s , w h i l e the s i z e - p r i c e c o m p a r i s o n s u p o n w h i c h t h i s s t u d y c o n c e n t r a t e s a r e t h o s e of s m a l l p a r c e l s w h e r e the s i z e - p r e f e r e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p d e v e l o p e d e a r l i e r s h o u l d be r e f l e c t e d . T h e r e f o r e , i f - s i z e c l a s s e s a r e c o n s t r u c t e d f r o m the s i z e - p r e f e r e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p R = A + B D " 1 N * 5 34 s u c h that the r a n g e of R i s s i m i l a r f o r e a c h c l a s s , the s i m p l e s t h y p o t h e s i s i s that the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a v e r a g e m a r k e t p r i c e and s i z e c l a s s i s l i n e a r w i t h u n i t y s l o p e . P r i c e v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n s i z e c l a s s e s i s a t t r i b u t a b l e to f a c t o r s o t h e r t h a n t h o s e u n d e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n . C o n s i d e r i n g e q u a t i o n (1Z), T a b l e III and o n l y t h o s e c a s e s w h e r e one n e i g h b o u r i s v i s i b l e , the g e n e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n p r e f e r e n c e and l o t s i z e b e c o m e s R = 7Z - Z150 (^f^Pj • N o w l e t us s a y , qu i te a r b i t r a r i l y , that t h o s e p a r c e l s of l a n d l e s s t h a n f i v e a c r e s i n s i z e a r e of g r e a t e s t i n t e r e s t and that a d e s i r a b l e d e g r e e of r e s o l u -t i o n r e q u i r e s s i x s i z e c l a s s e s b e l o w f i v e a c r e s . C o n v e n i e n t c l a s s l i m i t s a r e d e t e r m i n e d b y a d o p t i n g a p r e f e r e n c e i n t e r v a l of s e v e n u n i t s f o r e a c h s i z e c l a s s . P r e f e r e n c e 0 37 44 51 58 65 7Z P a r c e l S i z e Q Q 7 ^ ^ ^ ^ Q Q ( A c r e s ) T a b l e V I r e v e a l s the r e s u l t s of an a n a l y s i s of p r i c e v a r i a t i o n i n the b l o c k e d d a t a . B o t h p a r c e l s i z e and y e a r of s a l e e x p l a i n a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r -t i o n of w i t h i n - b l o c k p r i c e v a r i a t i o n , w h i l e d i s t a n c e to w a t e r and p e r cent s l o p e do n o t . B e t w e e n s i z e c l a s s e s , p r i c e v a r i a t i o n a p p e a r s to be s i z e i n d e p e n d e n t , i n d i c a t i n g the i n a d e q u a c y of the s i m p l e s i z e - p r i c e h y p o t h e s i s . M o s t i m p o r t a n t i s the d e p e n d e n c e of m a r k e t p r i c e upon the i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e " y e a r of s a l e " b e t w e e n s i z e c l a s s e s . O f f u n d a m e n t a l i m p o r t a n c e to the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h i s d e p e n d e n c e i s the n o t i o n that m a r k e t p r i c e r e p r e s e n t s the i n t e r s e c t i o n of s u p p l y and d e m a n d , and that h i s t o r i c a l m a r k e t p r i c e d a t a t r a c e the l o c u s of t h i s i n t e r s e c t i o n t h r o u g h t i m e . T e m p o r a l c h a n g e s i n e i t h e r 35 T A B L E VI? A n a l y s i s of m a r k e t p r i c e v a r i a t i o n a f t e r b l o c k i n g data i n s i z e c l a s s e s d e f i n e d a b o v e . S o u r c e of V a r i a t i o n dof M S F Y e a r of S a l e ( R e g r e s s i o n ) 1 3 7 . 6 7 1 3 . 2 1 * * B e t w e e n S i z e C l a s s e s ( B l o c k s ) 6 1 0 . 7 7 3 . 7 7 * * R e s i d u a l 571 2 . 8 6 D i s t a n c e to W a t e r ( R e g r e s s i o n ) 1 9 . 2 6 3 . 1 9 B e t w e e n S i z e C l a s s e s ( B l o c k s ) 6 6 .08 2 . 0 9 R e s i d u a l 571 2 . 9 1 P e r c e n t S l o p e ( R e g r e s s i o n ) B e t w e e n S i z e C l a s s e s ( B l o c k s ) R e s i d u a l P a r c e l S i z e ( R e g r e s s i o n ) • B e t w e e n S i z e C l a s s e s ( B l o c k s ) R e s i d u a l 1 . 9 4 . 3 2 6 5 . 2 4 1 .79 571 2 . 9 2 1 7 2 . 0 4 2 5 . 8 * * 6 . 3 4 . 1 2 571 2 . 8 0 36 supply or demand or both t h e r e f o r e determine the path which market p r i c e s f o l l o w through time. F o r the past century or more, the demand for p a r c e l s of land on the Gulf Islands has i n c reased, if only because the r e s i d e n t popula-ti o n has grown. While the supply of land r e m a i n s fixed, the supply of i n d i v i -dual p a r c e l s has i n c r e a s e d with a r e s u l t a n t shift in p a r c e l s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h i s shift can be seen by c o m p a r i n g the frequency d i s t r i b u t i o n s of p a r c e l s i z e s shown in T a b l e VII and F i g u r e 7. A s s u b d i v i s i o n and the r e s u l t i n g shift in p a r c e l s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n take place, the capacity for future supply r e s p o n s e is reduced. In addition, more p a r c e l s of l e s s than optimum siz e are produced, setting the stage for the size-p r e f e r e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p to begin operation. These two effects combine with sustained population, hence demand growth to cause the s i z e - p r e f e r e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p to begin to r e f l e c t in m a r k e t p r i c e . Such an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the t i m e dependence of m a r k e t p r i c e between siz e c l a s s e s (Table VI) is supported by the average p r i c e - s i z e c l a s s r e l a t i o n s h i p d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e 7. C l e a r l y the market does not, under a l l c i r c u m s t a n c e s , p r o v i d e d e v e l o p e r s with a d i s c e r n i b l e m e a s u r e of quality l o s t because of p a r c e l s m a l l n e s s . A n d even when p r i c e s do indicate a quality change, the sig n a l might be too weak to modify the influence of cost c r i t e r i a . S u b d i v i s i o n in r e s p o n s e to the combined f o r c e s of development cost and m a r k e t p r i c e alone can t h e r e f o r e r e s u l t in degradation of e nvironmental quality. G i v e n this apparent i n c o m p a t i b i l i t y of l a i s s e z - f a i r e s u b d i v i s i o n with the maintenance of e n v i r o n m e n t a l quality, the p o l i c y maker might well cry, "help". Should he set p o l i c y which would p r o h i b i t s m a l l lot subdivison, or could some other p o l i c y achieve the d e s i r e d goal more e f f i c i e n t l y ? A n d what would be the economic and s o c i a l consequences of these alternative p o l i c i e s designed to protect e n v i r o n m e n t a l quality? W i l l the situation c o r r e c t i t s e l f if left alone? A n s w e r s to such questions can be found using s i m u l a t i o n models such as that d e s c r i b e d in the next section. T A B L E V I I . N u m b e r o f p a r c e l s , a v e r a g e p r i c e a n d p r i c e r a n g e b y s i z e c l a s s a n d a s s e s s m e n t y e a r . P r i c e s s h o w n a r e i n 1 9 6 1 $ a n d r e p r e s e n t l a n d v a l u e s o n l y . N u m b e r o f A v e r a g e P r i c e R a n g e S t a n d a r d P a r c e l P a r c e l s P r i c e M a x i m u m M i n i m u m D e v i a t i o n S i z e ( a c r e s ) A s s e s s m e n t Y e a r 1 9 5 0 1 2 9 3 6 4 6 2 6 , 4 4 9 1 9 8 4 , 5 9 9 5 . 0 0 + 4 0 9 2 8 3, 8 6 7 8 6 8 4 4 1 . 7 0 - 4 . 9 9 3 7 7 0 2 2 , 3 9 9 4 4 5 7 1 0 . 4 3 - 1 . 6 9 9 5 9 1 2 , 2 2 4 2 3 7 7 3 0 . 1 9 - 0 . 4 2 4 5 1 6 1, 4 7 2 1 9 6 5 1 0 . 1 1 - 0 . 1 8 1 1 5 9 - 1 5 9 1 5 9 0 0 . 0 7 - 0 . 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 - 0 . 0 6 A s s e s s m e n t Y e a r I 9 6 0 8 5 4 , 0 7 9 4 3 , 4 0 5 4 4 1, 5 1 6 1 1 , 0 9 0 2 7 6 8 2 2 , 5 1 6 1 5 1, 1 7 6 1 0 , 8 4 4 4 3 2 7 6 5 0 1 4 , 6 6 2 4 , 6 6 2 2 7 1 0 1 , 0 7 5 A s s e s s m e n t Y e a r 1 9 7 0 3 7 1 9 , 7 8 5 3 9 7 , 4 9 6 29 4 , 3 0 3 1 4 , 4 6 1 8 2 2 , 3 1 9 9 , 5 7 3 3 2 1, 4 7 9 4 , 3 7 9 1 4 8 5 4 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 7 7, 2 0 8 5 . 0 0 + 1 0 3 1, 9 4 1 1 . 7 0 - 4 . 9 9 4 1 5 6 8 0 . 4 3 - 1 . 6 9 3 2 , 6 9 1 0 . 1 9 - 0 . 4 2 1 2 ' 3 0 8 0 . 1 1 - 0 . 1 8 6 6 2 0 0 . 0 7 - 0 . 1 0 3 4 5 5 1 6 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 6 2 7 5 6 4 , 6 7 1 5 . 0 0 + 3 3 6 3, 5 6 1 1 . 7 0 - 4 . 9 9 3 3 2 , 0 6 8 0 . 4 3 - 1 . 6 9 1 4 1 1, 0 4 8 0 . 1 9 - 0 . 4 2 4 8 5 0 0 . 1 1 - 0 . 1 8 0 0 0 . 0 7 - 0 . 1 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 - 0 . 0 6 S i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n and a v e r a g e p a r c e l p r i c e by a s s e s s m e n t y e a r . 39 T H E G U L F I S L A N D S R E C R E A T I O N A L L A N D S I M U L A T O R " S u p p l y and d e m a n d " h a s b e c o m e an e x p r e s s i o n u s e d w h e n c o m p r e h e n -s i o n of t h e s e m a r k e t p r o c e s s e s b e c o m e s d i f f i c u l t . T o a n s w e r q u e s t i o n s con-c e r n i n g change i n s u p p l y , or d e m a n d , o r t h e i r e f f e c t on the p r i c e of any c o m -m o d i t y , a l o o k at t h e i r d y n a m i c r a t h e r t h a n t r a d i t i o n a l s t a t i c r e l a t i o n s h i p i s n e c e s s a r y . T o o b t a i n t h i s v i e w , b o t h s u p p l y and d e m a n d m u s t be d i s s e c t e d i n t o s u b - p r o c e s s e s that c a n be d e s c r i b e d , t h e n r e j o i n e d to p r o d u c e a m o d e l of the p a r e n t p r o c e s s e s . A m o s t u s e f u l a p p r o a c h to s u c h p r o b l e m s h a s b e e n d e s c r i b e d as an e x p e r i m e n t a l c o m p o n e n t s a n a l y s i s ( H o l l i n g , 1966) . It i s b a s e d on the b e l i e f that the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of any s p e c i f i c e x a m p l e of a c o m p l e x p r o c e s s c a n be d e t e r m i n e d b y the a c t i o n a n d i n t e r a c t i o n of a n u m b e r of d i s c r e t e c o m -p o n e n t s . S o m e of t h e s e c o m p o n e n t s a r e s h a r e d b y a l l e x -a m p l e s of the p r o c e s s a n d c a n be c a l l e d b a s i c , i n that t h e y .. u n d e r l i e a l l m a n i f e s t a t i o n s of the p r o c e s s . O t h e r s a r e p r e s e n t i n s o m e s i t u a t i o n s and not o t h e r s and c a n be t e r m e d s u b s i d i a r y . B y i n i t i a l l y d i v i d i n g the c o m p o n e n t s i n t o u n i -v e r s a l l y o c c u r r i n g , or b a s i c ones , and s p o r a d i c , o r s u b -s i d i a r y o n e s , g e n e r a l i t y of a h i g h o r d e r b e c o m e s at l e a s t t h e o r e t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e . S o m e of the f e a t u r e s of e v e r y e x -a m p l e of the p r o c e s s w i l l a r i s e f r o m the a c t i o n of v a r i o u s c o m b i n a t i o n s of the s u b s i d i a r y o n e s . O n c e the b a s i c c o m p o n e n t s and s o m e of the s u b s i d i a r y ones a r e t e n t a t i v e l y i d e n t i f i e d on the b a s i s of g e n e r a l o b -s e r v a t i o n and e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n , a s i m p l e e x a m p l e i s s e l e c t e d that i n c l u d e s o n l y the b a s i c c o m p o n e n t s . P r e l i m i n a r y e x -p e r i m e n t s s u g g e s t h y p o t h e s e s to e x p l a i n the a c t i o n of e a c h c o m p o n e n t , and t h e s e p o s t u l a t e s a r e t h e n t e s t e d e x p e r i m e n t a l l y i n the c l a s s i c a l s c i e n t i f i c m a n n e r . W h e n a se t of p o s t u l a t e s i s f i n a l l y p r o v e d adequate , they a r e t h e n e x p r e s s e d i n a m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m a n d the e q u a t i o n s s y n t h e s i z e d to p r o d u c e a m o d e l of the b a s i c a l l y s i m p l e e x a m p l e c h o s e n . T h i s p r o -v i d e s a b a s e f r o m w h i c h to e x p l o r e m o r e c o m p l e x e x a m p l e s w h e r e a d d i t i o n a l , s u b s i d i a r y c o m p o n e n t s o p e r a t e , f o r t h e s e n e w c o m p o n e n t s c a n be a n a l y z e d i n the s a m e w a y and the b a s i c m o d e l e x p a n d e d to i n c l u d e t h e m . In t h i s way a m o r e and m o r e c o m p l e x s t r u c t u r e i s b u i l t , e a c h p r o g r e s s i v e s tep b e i n g t a k e n o n l y w h e n a v a l i d e x p l a n a t i o n has been o b t a i n e d f o r the p r e -v i o u s s t e p . 40 In b r i e f , the w h o l e a p p r o a c h m a y be l i k e n e d to the c o n t i n u e d d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of a c o m p l e x m a t h e m a t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p u n t i l d e f i n a b l e t e r m s a p p e a r . O n c e d e f i n e d , t h e s e t e r m s m a y be i n t e g r a t e d to b u i l d the f i n a l p r o d u c t o r s i m u l a -t i o n m o d e l . T h e a p p l i c a t i o n of the a b o v e e x p e r i m e n t a l c o m p o n e n t s a n a l y s i s to the d e m a n d f o r a n d s u p p l y of co t tage l o t s i n the G u l f I s l a n d s c l i m a x e d w i t h the p r o d u c t i o n of a G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r ( G I R L S ) . A s s t a t e d i n the i n t r o d u c t i o n to t h i s t h e s i s , the m o d e l s i m u l a t e s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the G u l f I s l a n d s as p r i v a t e l y - o w n e d p a r c e l s of l a n d . W i t h i n s u c h a d i s t r i b u t i o n s y s t e m a k e y p r o c e s s i s that w h i c h s u b d i v i d e s the r e s o u r c e in to i n d i v i d u a l p a r c e l s . T h e r e the e n v i r o n m e n t r e c e i v e s the i m p a c t of e c o n o m i c a l l y e x p r e s s e d s o c i a l d e m a n d s . W h e n those d e m a n d s a r e s t r o n g l y e x p r e s s e d , the s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s i s l i k e l y to t a k e p l a c e w i t h a c o n c o m i t a n t l o s s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . If the e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a r e m a d e w e a k b y s o m e m o n e t a r y or o t h e r p o l i c y , e n v i r o n m e n t a l h e a l t h m i g h t be p r e s e r v e d at the e x p e n s e of, say , the h e a l t h of the e c o n o m y . In t h i s s e n s e , t h e n , the c o m b i n e d p r o c e s s e s of s u b -d i v i s i o n and e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e t e r i o r a t i o n m a y be v i e w e d as a s y n t h e s i s of s o c i a l , e c o n o m i c , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . F i g u r e 8 r e l a t e s the s u b r o u t i n e s ( r e c t a n g l e s ) and l i n k a g e s (hexagons) w h i c h c o m p r i s e G I R L S . H e r e the " S u b d i v i s i o n " and " E c o l o g i c a l F e e d b a c k " ( e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e t e r i o r a t i o n ) s u b r o u t i n e s a r e d e v e l o p e d i n d e t a i l s i n c e they a r e b a s e d u p o n the c o s t - l o t s i z e a n d s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e - l o t s i z e f u n c t i o n s d e v e l o p e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s t h e s i s . O n l y c u r s o r y e x p l a n a t i o n i s g i v e n the r e m a i n i n g s u b r o u t i n e s , s i n c e they a r e d e v e l o p e d i n d e t a i l e l s e w h e r e ( R e s o u r c e S c i e n c e C e n t r e , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ) . D e m a n d f o r C o t t a g e L o t s E a c h y e a r ( i t e r a t i o n ) G I R L S g e n e r a t e s a n u m b e r of f a m i l i e s w i t h a r a n g e of i n c o m e s , d e s i r o u s of p u r c h a s i n g co t tage l o t s on the G u l f I s l a n d s . T o g e n e r a t e t h i s d e m a n d , t h r e e s u b - p r o c e s s e s , o r s u b r o u t i n e s , a r e i n v o l v e d . / M O R T G A G E I P O L I C I E S POPULATION & MEAN INCOME IN 1900 MO R T G A G E a/ / MODEL POPUL A T I O N S. E C O N O M I C G R O W T H B U Y I N G POWER OF G R O S S I N C O M E YEARLY REGIONAL P O P U L A T I O N DENSITY B> FAMILY SIZE " INCOME RECREATIONAL DEMAND S A L E PRICE " DETERMINATION INITIAL A S K I N G P R I C E S BY LAND C A T E G O R Y / Y E A R L Y ' DEMAND BY > MAX I M U M 1 BIDDING \ PRICE N U M B E R OF L O T S FOR S A L E BY L A N D C A T E G O R Y N U M B E R _ NEW LOTS FOR S A L E REAPPQRTIONEL AMONG LAND/ C L A S S E S E C O L O G I C A L F E E D B A C K NEW LOTS BY C A T E G O R Y S AVERAGE S I Z E S U B D I V I S I O N S A L E S TAX M A R K E T P R O C E S S A N N U A L R E V E N U E F R O M S A L E S TAX L A N D A V A I L A B L E F O R SUBDIVISION, L A N D -X N E W L Y , D E V E L O P E D L A N D Q U A L I T I E S QUANTITIES s| 1900 EVALUATION OF L A N D FOR R E C R E A T I O N A V E R A G E S A L E P R I C E S BY LAND C A T E G O R Y N U M B E R OF\ L O T S S O L D BY L A N D C A T E G O R Y / N U MBER OF P E O P L E U N A B L E TO BUY U M B E R OF LOTS L E F T U N S O L D BY L A N D C A T E G O R Y L A N D AVAILABILITY QUANTITY S Q U A L I T Y O F .UNOEVELOPEI L A N D AG I N G a/ P R O C E S S /OWNED LOTS BY A G E 4 L A N D \ C A T E G O R Y A N N U A L R E V E N U E F R O M IPERTY T, TAXATION ON P R O P E R T Y P R O P E R T Y TAX N U M B E R OF O W N E D L O T S FOR R E S A L E PROBABILITY OF R E S A L E F i g u r e 8 . F l o w d i a g r a m of the G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r ( G I R L S ) . 42 1. T h e " P o p u l a t i o n a n d E c o n o m i c G r o w t h " s u b r o u t i n e m i m i c s h i s t o r i c a l c e n s u s f i g u r e s u n t i l 1961 . B e y o n d that y e a r r a t e s of p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h c a n be c h a n g e d at w i l l , so that b o o m s and d e p r e s s i o n s , p e s t i l e n c e o r p o p u l a t i o n e x p l o s i o n s c a n be i n t r o d u c e d . 2 . T h e " M o r t g a g e M o d e l " p r o v i d e s o p p o r t u n i t y to m a n i p u l a t e i n t e r e s t r a t e s and a m o r t i z a t i o n p e r i o d s , h e n c e the m a x i m u m p r i c e of p r o p e r t y a f a m i l y w i t h a s p e c i f i e d i n c o m e c a n p u r c h a s e . It s i m p l y p r o v i d e s an o p p o r t u n i t y to i n t r o d u c e o r r e m o v e " t i g h t m o n e y " p o l i c i e s . 3 . T h e s u b r o u t i n e l a b e l l e d " R e c r e a t i o n a l D e m a n d " i s a n a l o g o u s w i t h a s i e v e t h r o u g h w h i c h the p o p u l a t i o n i s s t r a i n e d to f i n d the n u m b e r , s i z e , and i n c o m e of f a m i l i e s w i s h i n g to p u r c h a s e a co t tage l o t on the G u l f I s l a n d s . The s i e v e ' s m e s h i s a d j u s t a b l e u s i n g i n c o m e a n d f a m i l y s i z e , w h i c h , i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h a p r o -p o r t i o n a l i t y c o n s t a n t , s p e c i f y t h o s e f a m i l i e s i n the m a r k e t f o r G u l f I s l a n d p r o p e r t y . S u p p l y of C o t t a g e L o t s S i m i l a r l y , f o r e a c h y e a r G I R L S g e n e r a t e s a n u m b e r of p a r c e l s of G u l f I s l a n d l a n d f o r s a l e . S e v e n s u b m o d e l s o r s u b r o u t i n e s p e r f o r m t h i s t a s k . 1. T h e " A g i n g P r o c e s s " s i m p l y r e t u r n s e x i s t i n g l o t s to the m a r k e t a c c o r d i n g to an a g e - d e p e n d e n t p r o b a b i l i t y w h i c h g r o w s to 1 o v e r a 6 0 - y e a r p e r i o d . 2 . " T a x a t i o n on P r o p e r t y " a l l o w s t a x r a t e s to be i n c r e a s e d or d e c r e a s e d , g e n e r a t i n g r e v e n u e f o r g o v e r n m e n t s e r v i c e s . 3 . " P r o b a b i l i t y of R e s a l e " s i m p l y s p e e d s the r e t u r n of e x i s t i n g l o t s to the m a r k e t w h e n p r o p e r t y t a x e s a r e h i g h . T h e t h r e e s u b m o d e l s a b o v e d e a l o n l y w i t h p a r c e l s a l r e a d y i n s e r v i c e as 4 3 co t tage s i t e s . T h e f o l l o w i n g f o u r a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h the s u b d i v i s i o n of " U n d e v e l o p e d " l a n d in to p a r c e l s s o l d to c o t t a g e r s . 4 . T h e s u b r o u t i n e l a b e l l e d " E v a l u a t i o n of L a n d f o r R e c r e a t i o n " d i v i d e s the l a n d a r e a s t u d i e d i n t o s e v e n q u a l i t y c l a s s e s . D i f -f e r e n t i a t i o n of q u a l i t i e s i s b a s e d on the s l o p e of the t e r r a i n , d i s t a n c e to w a t e r ( l ake o r ocean) , and c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the v e g e t a t i o n . T h u s , g e n t l y s l o p i n g w a t e r f r o n t p r o p e r t y c l o t h e d i n the A r b u t u s and s h o r e p i n e t y p i c a l of the r e g i o n , i s m o r e d e s i r a b l e r e c r e a t i o n a l p r o p e r t y t h a n a s teep, n e a r l y t r e e l e s s , r o c k y h i l l s i d e s e v e r a l m i l e s f r o m the w a t e r f r o n t . 5. " L a n d A v a i l a b i l i t y " c a l c u l a t e s an a m o u n t of l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r s u b d i v i s i o n e a c h y e a r . A d e v e l o p e r ' s e f f o r t to b u y l a n d f o r sub-d i v i s i o n i s a s s u m e d to be p r o p o r t i o n a l to the s i z e of and t r e n d s i n r e c e n t m a r k e t s . B u t a t t e m p t s to p u r c h a s e a r e not a l w a y s s u c c e s s f u l . A s the a m o u n t of " U n d e v e l o p e d L a n d " d e c l i n e s , i t s a v a i l a b i l i t y to d e v e l o p e r s a l s o d e c l i n e s . 6. " S u b d i v i s i o n " m i m i c s the p r o c e s s b y w h i c h a d e v e l o p e r l o o k s at l o t p r i c e s , the s i z e of the m a r k e t , the a r e a and p r i c e of l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r s u b d i v i s i o n , and a n t i c i p a t e d d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s ( e q u a t i o n (21)). T w o l e v e l s of d e v e l o p e r s o p h i s t i c a t i o n a r e i n c l u d e d i n the s u b m o d e l . T h e m o s t s o p h i s t i c a t e d buy u n d e v e -l o p e d l a n d a n d h o l d i t f o r f u t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t , w h i l e s m a l l e r , l e s s w e l l f i n a n c e d d e v e l o p e r s c a n o n l y buy , s u b d i v i d e , a n d m a r k e t i n the s a m e m a r k e t , p e r i o d . B o t h l a r g e and s m a l l d e v e l o p e r s p r o d u c e a s i z e and n u m b e r of l o t s w h i c h a r e e x p e c t e d to y i e l d a s p e c i f i e d m i n i m u m p r o f i t . T h a t m i n i m u m i s d e f i n e d as a p r o p o r t i o n of the e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g p r i c e . L o t s i z e i s d e t e r m i n e d by the p u r s u i t of t h i s m i n i m u m p r o f i t , g i v e n the d e m a n d a n d a m o u n t of l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r s u b -d i v i s i o n , and m a y be c o n s t r a i n e d by a p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n w h i c h 4 4 s p e c i f i e s a s i z e b e l o w w h i c h l o t s cannot be s u b d i v i d e d . A f l o w d i a g r a m ( F i g u r e 9) s e r v e s as a f o c u s f o r a m o r e d e t a i l e d d e s -c r i p t i o n of the s u b r o u t i n e . L o o k i n g f i r s t at the l a s t m a r k e t , the h y p o t h e t i c a l d e v e l o p e r ob-s e r v e s the n u m b e r of l o t s s o l d a n d the r a t e of p r i c e i n c r e a s e , e s t i m a t i n g f o r e a c h l a n d q u a l i t y (I), the n u m b e r of l o t s w h i c h w i l l be s o l d i n the n e x t m a r k e t . T h i s n u m b e r , r e c e i v e d f r o m the p r e -v i o u s s u b r o u t i n e , i s D M A N D (I). If no d e m a n d i s a n t i c i p a t e d i n q u a l i t y c l a s s (I), no d e v e l o p m e n t t a k e s p l a c e . If a d e m a n d i s a n t i c i p a t e d , the d e v e l o p e r se ts D M A N D (I) e q u a l to W N , the i n i t i a l n u m b e r of l o t s he e x p e c t s to p r o d u c e , and a s k s w h a t p r i c e he m u s t p a y f o r u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d . T h a t p r i c e ( X X B ) i s a s s u m e d to r i s e a n d f a l l at h a l f the r a t e of change i n cot tage l o t p r i c e s d u r i n g the l a s t two m a r k e t p e r i o d s . F r o m a p r e v i o u s e x a m i n a t i o n of the m a r k e t f o r u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d , ( " L a n d A v a i l a b i l i t y " ) , the d e v e l o p e r " k n o w s " that A V L N D (I) a c r e s of q u a l i t y (I) l a n d a r e f o r s a l e i f he s h o u l d d e c i d e to b u y t h e m . If t h e r e a r e any l a r g e - s c a l e d e v e l o p e r s i n v o l v e d , t h e n a n a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e of l a n d f o r d e v e l o p m e n t r e s i d e s i n H O L D (I), the n u m b e r of a c r e s of q u a l i t y (I) l a n d w h i c h t h e y bought p r e v i o u s l y . A n i n i t i a l a m o u n t of l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r s u b d i v i s i o n ( X G ) i s t h e r e f o r e e s t a b l i s h e d . W i t h the n u m b e r of l o t s to be p r o d u c e d (WN) and the l a n d a r e a a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e i r p r o d u c t i o n ( X G ) , the h y p o t h e t i c a l d e v e l o p e r t h e n c a l c u l a t e s the s i z e (WS) of t h e s e p r o p o s e d l o t s u s i n g e q u a -t i o n (16). If the l o t s i z e (WS) i s e q u a l to o r g r e a t e r t h a n the m i n i m u m s i z e p e r m i t t e d b y g o v e r n m e n t p o l i c y ( S Z M I N ) , p r o f i t a n t i c i p a t e d f r o m the p r o p o s e d v e n t u r e ( T P R O F ) i s c a l c u l a t e d as the d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t o t a l c o s t ( e q u a t i o n (21)) and e x p e c t e d r e v e n u e ( T R E V ) . T o t a l r e v e n u e ( T R E V ) i s s i m p l y the p r o d u c t of e x p e c t e d d e m a n d (WN) a n d e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g p r i c e ( X R ) . SUBROUTINE SUTiDV Subdivision Subroutine | D G C 9, 19701 i n i t i a l i z a t i o n XL = (XXL -XT) / 30. P = .6931 / (XXP - XXM) XR = SAL{I) XK = XXK * XR XK / (10.*XP*EXP(XP*XXM)) /land c l a s s e s \ no demand—no dovelopment determine price per acre of land to developers XXB(I) = XXB(I) * (1. * ZLOTS (I) / UNDV (I) ) XX B (I) £ AGR1 XB = XX B(I) add 10% of h o l d i n g s — a l l large scale developers now XG = -1 * HOLD (I) HOLD(I) ,= HOLD(I) - XG BIG (I) = 1. K = 1 SUMAL = XG determine lot si WS = XG / WM i n s u f f i c i e n t i r o f i t -—reduce l o t size by 10% WS = 9 • WS have added some holdings or reduce the number of l o t s s u p p l i e d — determine new l o t size determine t o t a l cost of development and expected p r o f i t TREV = WN * XR [•COST = XB*WS*WN+XK*WN* (l.+XI,/(WS-XT) ) + XM* (EXP(XP*WN)-1.) TPROF = TREV-TC0ST reduce number of lots supplied by 10 development p r o f i t a b l e DLOTS(I) = WN ASIZE(I) = WS ZL0TS (I) = WN_*_ WS add additional land K - 1 BIG(I) = (BIG(I)*XG+ ADLND)/(XG+ADLN0) XG = XG + ADLND HOLD(I) = HOLD(l) - ADLND SUMAL = SUMAL + ADLND no holdings were added— used available land only holdings were added—i.e., used a l l available land UNDV (I) = UNDV fl) -AVLND(I) no p r o f i t — development they buy up a proportion of any excess land XSLND = BIG(I)*(AVLND(I)-XG) XSLND i 0. HOLD{I) = HOLD(I)+XSLND UNDV(I? = UNDV(I)-XSLN0 end of land class loop any land put on the market from holdings and then not used i s returned to the holdings XSLND = XG - WN * WS XSLND * 0. HOLD (I) = HOLD f I) +XSLND holdings were added — r e t u r n them to developers BIG(I) = (BIG(I)'XG-SUMAL)/(XG-SUMAL) HOLD(I) = HOLDCD+SUMAL L Z no development DLOTS (I) = 0. ASIZE(I) = 0. ZLOTS (I ) = 0. u r e 9. F l o w d i a g r a m of the " S u b d i v i s i o n " p r o c e s s . 46 T h e m i n i m u m p r o f i t w h i c h w i l l p r o m p t d e v e l o p e r s to s u b d i v i d e ( P R M I N ) i s c a l c u l a t e d as a p r o p o r t i o n ( E X P R ) of a n t i c i p a t e d t o t a l r e v e n u e ( T R E V ) . If the d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n c o s t s and r e v e n u e ( T P R O F ) i s e q u a l to o r g r e a t e r t h a n the m i n i m u m r e -q u i r e d f o r s u b d i v i s i o n to o c c u r ( P R M I N ) , s u b d i v i s i o n t a k e s p l a c e and the r e m a i n d e r of the s u b r o u t i n e p e r f o r m s the b o o k -k e e p i n g c h o r e s . If, h o w e v e r , t h e r e i s i n s u f f i c i e n t p r o f i t , l o t s i z e i s r e d u c e d 10 p e r c e n t and the a n t i c i p a t e d p r o f i t r e c a l c u l a t e d . T h i s p r o c e s s of l o t s i z e r e d u c t i o n c o n t i n u e s u n t i l s u b d i v i s i o n o c c u r s , or u n t i l l o t s i z e f a l l s b e l o w the p o l i c y m i n i m u m . In the event that l o t s i z e b e c o m e s too s m a l l , and b i g d e v e l o p e r s w i t h l a n d h o l d i n g s a r e o p e r a t i n g , the a m o u n t of l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r s u b d i v i s i o n (XG) i s i n c r e a s e d and the p r o c e s s of p r o f i t c a l -c u l a t i o n and s i z e r e d u c t i o n is r e p e a t e d . W h e n the l a r g e d e v e l o p e r s ' h o l d i n g s h a v e t h u s b e e n d i s p o s e d of, and s t i l l no s u b d i v i s i o n h a s t a k e n p l a c e , o r i n the event the l a r g e s p e c u l a t o r o p t i o n i s not i n u s e , the n u m b e r of l o t s to be p r o d u c e d (WN) i s r e d u c e d b y t e n p e r cent a n d the p r o c e s s of p r o f i t c a l c u l a t i o n a n d l o t s i z e r e d u c t i o n r e p e a t e d yet a g a i n . B y r e d u c i n g the s i z e a n d n u m b e r of l o t s to be d e v e l o p e d i n r e s p o n s e to the c o m b i n e d f o r c e s of m a r k e t p r i c e , d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s and p r o f i t e x p e c t a t i o n , the stage i s set f o r s i m u l a t e d d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . W h i l e t h i s s u b r o u t i n e , l i k e that f o l l o w i n g and a l l o t h e r s i n G I R L S , p r e s e n t s a t e r r i b l y s i m p l e , s u s p e c t v i e w of the p r o c e s s e s i t i s s u p p o s e d to d e s c r i b e , i t i m p r o v e s u p o n the " s u p p l y and d e m a n d " c l i c h e , i f o n l y b e c a u s e i t r e m a i n s s u s p e c t a f t e r m o v i n g t h r o u g h one l e v e l of c o m p l e x i t y and f r o m the s t a t i c to d y n a m i c s i t u a t i o n . 7. T h e " E c o l o g i c a l F e e d b a c k " s u b m o d e l i s c o n c e p t u a l l y c o m p r i s e d of m a n y p a r t s . O n l y one , ' the i m p a c t of s m a l l l o t s u b d i v i s i o n o n 47 q u a l i t y i s i n c l u d e d i n t h i s v e r s i o n of G I R L S . " E c o l o g i c a l F e e d b a c k " , t h e r e f o r e , s i m p l y r e v i s e s the r e c r e a t i o n a l q u a l i t y of n e w l y s u b d i v i d e d p a r c e l s a c c o r d i n g to the l o t s i z e c l a s s -s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p d e v e l o p e d e a r l i e r . A f l o w d i a g r a m of the s u b r o u t i n e ( F i g u r e 10) p u n c t u a t e s t h i s s i m p l i c i t y . T h e q u a l i t y c l a s s (I) of n e w l y s u b d i v i d e d l o t s ( D L O T S (I) ) i s d e c r e a s e d i f those l o t s a r e s m a l l e r t h a n 1.7 a c r e s (see page 34 i n m a r k e t p r i c e s e c t i o n ) . The n u m b e r of q u a l i t y c l a s s e s l o s t e q u a l s the n u m b e r of s i z e c l a s s e s t h r o u g h w h i c h the l o t s h a v e m o v e d , but i n no c a s e d o e s the q u a l i t y d r o p b e l o w c l a s s s i x . B y r e d u c i n g the q u a l i t y c l a s s of l o t s s u b d i v i d e d in to s m a l l s i z e s , the m a r k e t i n w h i c h t h e y a r e s o l d c h a n g e s . T h a t i s , w i t h i n G I R L S t h e r e a r e s e v e n m a r k e t s i n e a c h m a r k e t p e r i o d , one f o r e a c h q u a l i t y of l a n d . L o t s w h i c h s u f f e r a q u a l i t y r e d u c t i o n w i l l , t h e r e f o r e , i n c u r a p r i c e r e d u c t i o n as w e l l b e c a u s e of the m a r k e t c h a n g e . T h i s c o n s e q u e n c e r e f l e c t s i n m a r k e t i n f o r m a t i o n r e -c e i v e d by d e v e l o p e r s , h e n c e t h e i r a s s e s s m e n t of the n e x t m a r k e t p e r i o d . A s s t a t e d p r e v i o u s l y , t h i s and a l l G I R L S s u b r o u t i n e s a r e t e r r i b l y s i m p l e d e s c r i p t i o n s of c o m p l i c a t e d p r o c e s s e s . T h e e x t e n t of r e d u c t i o n s i n q u a l i t y due to l o t s m a l l n e s s m a y be e x c e s s i v e or c o n s e r v a t i v e . M u c h m o r e e x p e r i m e n t a l w o r k w i l l be n e c e s s a r y t o v e r i f y r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n d e t e r m i n a n t s of q u a l i t y a f t e r t h e i r i d e n t i t i e s h a v e b e e n d e t e r m i n e d . I n t e r a c t i o n of S u p p l y and D e m a n d H a v i n g g e n e r a t e d a n u m b e r of l o t s and a d e m a n d f o r t h e m , the s u b -r o u t i n e l a b e l l e d " S a l e P r i c e D e t e r m i n a t i o n " c a l c u l a t e s an i n i t i a l or " a s k i n g " p r i c e f o r l o t s e a c h y e a r . C a l c u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d on p r i c e t r e n d s o v e r the p a s t t h r e e y e a r s ( m a r k e t p e r i o d s ) and a c o n s t a n t w h i c h i n d i c a t e s the d e g r e e SUBROUTINE PRVCY E c o l o g i c a l Feedback Subroutine land c l a s s e s I = 1,7 1 Dec. 9, 1970 i n i t i a l i z e temporary array to zero TEMP (I) = 0. s k i p e c o l o g i c a l feedback NO process /l a n d c l a s s e s \ A I =,1,7 / XNUM = DLOTS(I) AVSIZ = ASIZE(I) s i z e c l a s s e s J = 1,6 loop from s m a l l e s t s i z e upwards u n t i l c o r r e c t one reached J J = 8 - J  YES ( C O N T I N U E ) top s i z e c l a s s — n o change i n land c l a s s TEMP (I) = TEMP(I) +XNUM - ( C O N T I N U E ) 'land c l a s s e s N TUI s i z e c l a s s J J — d e t e r m i n e r e s u l t a n t land c l a s s I I = I + J J - 1 I I 6 6 move l o t s i n t o t h i s land c l a s s TEMP (II) = TEMP (II) +XNUM \ I =1,7 /' r e d i s t r i b u t e l o t s by r e s u l t a n t land c l a s s DLOTS(I) = TEMP (I) F i g u r e 10. F l o w d i a g r a m , of the one c o m p o n e n t of " E c o l o g i c a l F e e d b a c k " n o w i n c l u d e d i n G I R L S . 49 of o p t i m i s m a m o n g d e v e l o p e r s . T h e s u b r o u t i n e l a b e l l e d " M a r k e t P r o c e s s " t h e n r e c e i v e s t h r e e p i e c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n : 1. i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e ; 2. the d e m a n d f o r cot tage l o t s (a v e c t o r of the n u m b e r of ' b u y e r s b y p r i c e of p r o p e r t y t h e y a r e a b l e to b u y ) ; and, 3. the s u p p l y of cot tage l o t s (a v e c t o r of the n u m b e r of l o t s by q u a l i t y c a t e g o r y ) . P r o c e e d i n g f r o m h i g h e s t to l o w e s t q u a l i t y l o t s , s u p p l y i s c o m p a r e d w i t h d e m a n d . A t e a c h c o m p a r i s o n t h r e e s i t u a t i o n s c a n o c c u r . T h e s e s i t u a t i o n s a n d s u b s e q u e n t a c t i o n of the " M a r k e t P r o c e s s " a r e as f o l l o w s : (a) W h e n e x p r e s s e d d e m a n d e x c e e d s s u p p l y , t h e r e a r e f e w e r l o t s t h a n b u y e r s ab le to p a y the i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e . L o t s a r e t h e n s o l d o n a " f i r s t c o m e , f i r s t s e r v e " b a s i s . T h a t i s , the n u m b e r of l o t s s o l d to e a c h i n c o m e c a t e g o r y i s p r o p o r t i o n a l to the n u m b e r of b i d d e r s t h e r e i n . (b) W h e n d e m a n d e q u a l s s u p p l y , t h e r e a r e e q u a l n u m b e r s of l o t s and b u y e r s ab le to pay the p r i c e s a s k e d . T h e i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e t h e r e f o r e b e c o m e s the m a r k e t p r i c e , and l o t s a r e s o l d to a l l b i d d e r s . (c) W h e n s u p p l y e x c e e d s d e m a n d , t h e r e a r e m o r e l o t s t h a n b u y e r s a b l e to p a y the i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e . In t h i s event , l o t s a r e s o l d to t h o s e b i d d i n g the i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e , w h i c h i s t h e n l o w e r e d a n d m o r e l o t s s o l d . T h i s p r o c e s s i s r e p e a t e d u n t i l a l l l o t s a r e s o l d o r u n t i l the p r i c e d r o p s to a f l o o r (ha l f the s e l l i n g p r i c e two y e a r s b e f o r e ) , b e l o w w h i c h no one w i l l s e l l . In t h i s event , u n s o l d l o t s a r e c a r r i e d f o r w a r d to n e x t y e a r ' s m a r k e t . T h i s v i e w of the m a r k e t , a l t h o u g h o v e r s i m p l i f i e d , p r o v i d e s a c o n v e n i e n t m e e t i n g p l a c e f o r co t tage l o t s and b u y e r s g e n e r a t e d i n the o t h e r s u b m o d e l s . 50 S i m u l a t i o n M o d e l s A l t h o u g h i t s r e s e m b l a n c e w i t h the r e a l w o r l d i s o n l y a n e c d o t a l , the G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r i s a u s e f u l t o o l w i t h w h i c h to e x p l o r e the e f f e c t s of c h a n g e . B y a l l o w i n g one c o m p o n e n t to change , or b y i m p o s i n g c h a n g e on a n o t h e r , we c a n see h o w s u c h c h a n g e s m i g h t a f f e c t yet o t h e r p a r t s of the s y s t e m . In t h i s w a y , s i m u l a t i o n s t u d i e s c a n a i d the p r o c e s s of a n t i c i -p a t i o n . H e r e l i e s the g r e a t s t r e n g t h of s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l s and t h e i r p r o p e n s i t y f o r a b u s e . So l o n g as i t i s r e c o g n i z e d that p r e d i c t i o n s a r e m a d e o n l y f o r t h o s e p a r t s o f the s y s t e m the b u i l d e r has c h o s e n to i n c l u d e i n h i s m o d e l , that the i n t e r a c t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e s e and the e x c l u d e d p a r t s a r e t h e r e f o r e absent , a n d that b e c a u s e the m o d e l i s i n c o m p l e t e a n d c o m p r i s e d of m a t h e m a t i c a l c a r i c a t u r e s , p r e d i c t i o n s of m a g n i t u d e a r e h i g h l y s u s p e c t , s i m u l a t i o n s t u d i e s c a n a i d the a n t i c i p a t i o n of the e f f e c t s of n a t u r a l or i n d u c e d c h a n g e . If m u c h c r e d i b i l i t y i s g i v e n the p r e d i c t e d t i m e of a p p e a r a n c e and m a g n i t u d e of t h e s e e f f e c t s , the d a n g e r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b e l i e f i n any f a l s e h o o d or h a l f t r u t h a r i s e . W i t h t h i s c a u t i o n a r y note f i r m l y m a d e , a t t e n t i o n c a n be d i v e r t e d to the r e a l v a l u e of the m o d e l , the p r e d i c t i o n of t r e n d s g i v e n d i f f e r e n t p o l i c i e s . A l i s t i n g of G I R L S , i n c l u d i n g p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s , m a y be f o u n d i n A p p e n d i x III. M o r e p e r t i n e n t h e r e i s the g r a p h i c a l output s h o w n i n F i g u r e 1 1 . T h e a b s c i s s a of a l l t h r e e g r a p h s i s t i m e and r e p r e s e n t s the i n t e r v a l 1900 -2000 . O n the u p p e r m o s t g r a p h the p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l l a n d a r e a that has b e e n d e v e l o p e d i s p l o t t e d f o r e a c h of f o u r q u a l i t y c l a s s e s . ( P l o t t i n g the o t h e r c l a s s e s s e r v e s o n l y to c l u t t e r the d i a g r a m . ) The r e m a i n i n g l o c u s on the u p p e r g r a p h ( w i t h d a t a p o i n t s p lo t ted) r e p r e s e n t s the p r o p o r t i o n of cot tage l o t b u y e r s u n a b l e to f i n d a s u i t a b l e p u r c h a s e i n s p i t e of t h e i r a b i l i t y to p a y . T h e a r e a of l a n d d e v e l o p e d i n e a c h q u a l i t y c l a s s e a c h y e a r i s p l o t t e d on the c e n t r a l g r a p h , and on the l o w e s t , the p r i c e of l o t s i n e a c h of the f o u r q u a l i t y c l a s s e s . 4 OQ P CD Sir Gr p P T S t r p »—' rt- r> o J" i — • o p o rt-T 3 P rt-rt-(T> O <; rt-n> tr rt-O 0 P to l-h 1—l cn i — • P C u w t o CD O n> P rt-t^-O P i — • tr p a PRICE (SUMO) D E V Q J P V f M 52 G r a p h i c a l R e p r e s e n t a t i o n of Q u a l i t y I n d e v e l o p i n g the m e a s u r e of q u a l i t y t r a c e d b y the r e m a i n i n g l o c u s on the l o w e r g r a p h of F i g u r e 11, t h r e e n o t i o n s a r e r e q u i r e d : 1 . In the c o n t e x t of G I R L S , the q u a l i t y of the s y s t e m at any t i m e c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d b y the " q u a l i t y a r e a " t h e r e i n . A s s h o w n i n T a b l e V I I I , t h i s m e a s u r e i s s i m p l y the s u m of the p r o d u c t s of w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r s and a r e a s of l a n d i n e a c h q u a l i t y c l a s s . F i r s t q u a l i t y l a n d i s g i v e n t w i c e the w e i g h t of s e c o n d q u a l i t y l a n d , t h r e e t i m e s that of t h i r d q u a l i t y l a n d , and so o n . W e i g h t i n g f a c t o r s a r e t h e r e f o r e the q u a l i t y c l a s s n u m b e r s i n r e v e r s e o r d e r . S i n c e q u a l i t y i s l o s t ( w i t h i n G I R L S ) a c c o r d i n g to the n u m b e r of s i z e c l a s s e s t h r o u g h w h i c h a p a r c e l m o v e s , and s i z e c l a s s i n t e r v a l s r e p r e s e n t e q u a l p r e f e r e n c e i n t e r v a l s , s u c h a w e i g h t i n g s e e m s j u s t i f i e d . 2 . T h e t o t a l q u a l i t y of the s y s t e m m a y be d i v i d e d i n two p a r t s . T h e f i r s t i s that p o r t i o n of the t o t a l w h i c h has b e e n d e v e l o p e d ( s e q u e s t e r e d b y i n d i v i d u a l f a m i l i e s ) and i s a m e a s u r e of q u a l i t y i n d i r e c t u s e . T h e s e c o n d is 1 that p o r t i o n of the t o t a l w h i c h r e m a i n s u n d e v e l o p e d and i s a m e a s u r e of the c a p a c i t y of the s y s t e m to a b s o r b o r " b o u n c e b a c k " f r o m q u a l i t y l o s s e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m the s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s . 3 . T o t a l q u a l i t y a n d e a c h of i t s p a r t s a r e s u b j e c t to c h a n g e . S e v e r a l " b a r o m e t e r s " w i t h w h i c h to m o n i t o r the s y s t e m ' s q u a l i t y a r e a p p a r e n t . T h e f i r s t p o s s i b i l i t y w h i c h s p r i n g s to m i n d , t o t a l q u a l i t y , i s not a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h r e e r e a s o n s . The f i r s t a n d m o s t i m p o r t a n t i s that p e o p l e p e r c e i v e d i f f e r e n c e s , not t o t a l q u a n t i t i e s , a n a s s e r t i o n a m p l y s u p p o r t e d b y a n e a r l i e r s e c t i o n . The s e c o n d and t h i r d r e a s o n s c o n c e r n the l a r g e r p a r c e l s of h i g h e s t q u a l i t y l a n d w h i c h a r e d e v e l o p e d e a r l y i n the h i s t o r y of the s y s t e m . M u c h of the t o t a l q u a l i t y i s c o n t a i n e d i n t h e s e p a r c e l s w h i c h , i n r e a l i t y , a r e 53 T A B L E VIII. C a l c u l a t i o n of the "quality a r e a " in a s y s t e m at one point in time. (1) (2) (3) L a n d C l a s s A r e a (acres) Weighting f a c t o r (2) x (3) 1 1000 7 7000 2 2000 6 12000 3 9000 5 45000 4 1000 4 4000 5 1000 3 3000 6 1000 2 2000 7 1000 1 1000 T o t a l "quality a r e a " 74000 54 r e t u r n e d to s u b d i v i d e r s m o r e s l o w l y t h a n " u n d e v e l o p e d " l a n d . T h e y t h e r e f o r e a c t as a b u f f e r , or d e l a y i n g m e c h a n i s m , i n the d e g r a d a t i o n of t o t a l q u a l i t y . W i t h i n G I R L S , the d e l a y i s c o m p l e t e . O n c e d e v e l o p e d , p a r c e l s a r e n e v e r r e t u r n e d to d e v e l o p e r s . S u c h r e c y c l i n g w o u l d r e q u i r e c o m p u t i n g f a c i l i t i e s l a r g e r t h a n t h o s e a v a i l a b l e ( I B M 1130) and w o u l d add l i t t l e of c o n s e q u e n c e to the m o d e l . P e o p l e p e r c e i v e and e v a l u a t e d i f f e r e n c e s . R a t e s of change r a t h e r t h a n t o t a l a m o u n t s a r e t h e r e f o r e the a p p r o p r i a t e m e a s u r e s of q u a l i t y . S u p p o s e s o m e l a n d a r e a A i s s u b d i v i d e d i n a g i v e n y e a r . D e p e n d i n g u p o n the l a n d c l a s s e s f r o m w h i c h A i s d r a w n , i t s u n d e v e l o p e d q u a l i t y c a n be c a l c u l a t e d (as i n T a b l e VIII) a n d e x p r e s s e d as the q u a l i t y - a r e a d e v e l o p e d ( Q A D ) i n that y e a r . If, a f t e r s u b d i v i s i o n , s o m e of that q u a l i t y i s l o s t b e c a u s e l o t s p r o d u c e d a r e too s m a l l , the q u a l i t y l o s t c a n a l s o be c a l c u l a t e d and e x p r e s s e d as q u a l i t y a r e a l o s t ( Q A L ) . T h e n the p r o p o r t i o n P of the u n d e v e l o p e d q u a l i t y of A , w h i c h i s r e t a i n e d a f t e r s u b d i v i s i o n , i s _ Q A D - Q A L Q A D W h i l e the above p r o p o r t i o n i s i m p o r t a n t , a l o n e i t i s i n s u f f i c i e n t . E a r l y i n the d e v e l o p m e n t of a r e g i o n s m a l l l o t s a r e p r o d u c e d , but t h e s e " e r r o r s " w o u l d ( i n t u i t i v e l y ) h a v e m i n i m a l i m p a c t on the w h o l e s y s t e m . A s m o r e a n d m o r e of the r e g i o n i s d e v e l o p e d , i t s r e s i l i e n c e o r c a p a c i t y to a b s o r b q u a l i t y l o s s e s i s d i m i n i s h e d . S m a l l l o t s p r o d u c e d l a t e i n the h i s t o r y of d e v e l o p m e n t h a v e m u c h g r e a t e r i m p a c t t h a n t h o s e p r o d u c e d e a r l i e r . The p r o p o r t i o n P s h o u l d t h e r e f o r e be m o d i f i e d b y s o m e m e a s u r e w h i c h r e f l e c t s the c h a n g i n g r e s i l i e n c e of the s y s t e m . N o t e that the p r o p o r t i o n P i s r e l a t e d to the i n s t a n t a n e o u s r a t e of change i n q u a l i t y , r , as f o l l o w s : P = 1 - r w h e r e Q A L  r - Q A D 55 C o n s i d e r the l a n d a r e a w h i c h r e m a i n s u n d e v e l o p e d at the s t a r t of the g i v e n y e a r . I t s q u a l i t y a r e a i s a m e a s u r e of the s y s t e m ' s r e s i l i e n c e (page 52), s o m e p a r t of w h i c h ( Q A D ) i s w i t h d r a w n f o r d e v e l o p m e n t that y e a r . T h e n the p r o p o r t i o n R of the u n d e v e l o p e d q u a l i t y a r e a ( Q A R ) w h i c h r e m a i n s u n s e q u e s -t e r e d at the y e a r end i s _ Q A R - Q A D R " Q A R ( 2 5 ) T h e q u a l i t y i m p a c t l i n e ( F i g u r e 11) r e p r e s e n t s the p r o d u c t of the t w o p r o p o r -t i o n s P and R , a n d i s p l o t t e d on an o r d i n a t e s c a l e d f r o m z e r o (at the o r i g i n ) to one (at $74 ,000) . G I R L S V a l i d i t y H a v i n g m a n u f a c t u r e d G I R L S a n d o b t a i n e d the b a s i c output s h o w n i n F i g u r e 11, the f i r s t q u e s t i o n c o n c e r n s the a c c u r a c y w i t h w h i c h the m o d e l m i m i c s a c t u a l t r e n d s . F i g u r e 7 r e v e a l s the two t r e n d s w h i c h the m o d e l s h o u l d m i m i c . F i r s t , the s h i f t i n g p a r c e l s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n i m p l i e s that s m a l l e r a n d s m a l l e r p a r c e l s of l a n d a r e s u b d i v i d e d t h r o u g h t i m e . S e c o n d l y , p r i c e s i n c r e a s e a n d p r i c e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n s i z e c l a s s e s i n c r e a s e to 1970. B e c a u s e of the l i n k b e t w e e n p a r c e l s i z e and q u a l i t y , e v i d e n c e of the f i r s t t r e n d i n G I R L S m a y be s e e n as d e p r e s s i o n s i n the q u a l i t y i m p a c t l i n e of F i g u r e 11 . W h i l e p r i c e s i n c r e a s e m o r e r a p i d l y i n G I R L S t h a n i n r e a l i t y ( F i g u r e s 7 and 11), the c o r r e c t t r e n d i s c e r t a i n l y p r e s e n t i n the m o d e l and, i f one t a k e s i m a g i n a r y c r o s s s e c t i o n s t h r o u g h the l o w e s t g r a p h i n F i g u r e 11, t h e r e i s , b e t w e e n 1900 and 1970, a n i n c r e a s i n g s p r e a d i n p r i c e s of l o t s of d i f f e r e n t q u a l i t i e s . W h i l e m a g n i t u d e s r e m a i n i n q u e s t i o n as I t h i n k they s h o u l d , G I R L S does m i m i c the d i r e c t i o n of s h i f t s i n p r i c e and p a r c e l s i z e to the p r e s e n t . B e c a u s e the s u p p l y of l a n d w i t h i n the G u l f I s l a n d s i s f i n i t e , and the m o d e l p r o v i d e s f o r a l i m i t e d r a n g e of p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s , the q u e s t i o n s p o s e d at the end of the l a s t s e c t i o n m u s t be r e c a s t . T h e y t h e r e f o r e b e c o m e : 56 1. Is the s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s , h e n c e the d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y , d i s c o u r a g e d b y a g r o w i n g , c o n s t a n t , o r d e c l i n i n g d e m a n d f o r cot tage l o t s ? W i t h r e f e r e n c e to G I R L S and F i g u r e 8, the q u e s t i o n b e c o m e s m o r e s p e c i f i c . W h a t m a n i p u l a t i o n s of p o p u l a t i o n and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h d i s c o u r a g e the d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y ? 2 . W h i c h of the f o l l o w i n g p o l i c i e s c a n be u s e d to d i s c o u r a g e the s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s (and c o n s e q u e n t d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y ) , and what o t h e r e f f e c t s c a n be a n t i c i p a t e d i f t h e y w e r e u s e d ? (i) The m a n i p u l a t i o n of m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e s . (ii) T h e i m p o s i t i o n of a s a l e s t a x on cot tage l o t s . ( i i i ) The m a n i p u l a t i o n of p r o p e r t y t a x e s . (iv) T h e i m p o s i t i o n of a m i n i m u m l o t s i z e . B e c a u s e the p r i n c i p a l f o c u s of t h i s t h e s i s has b e e n the i m p a c t of a s h i f t i n g l o t s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n u p o n e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y , f i r s t a t t e n t i o n w a s g i v e n to that e f f e c t w h e n m a k i n g a n d i n t e r p r e t i n g v a r i o u s i n t e r v e n t i o n s . B u t e q u a l e m p h a s i s m u s t be g i v e n the e c o n o m i c and s o c i a l c o n s e q u e n c e s of v a r i o u s p o l i c i e s as r e f l e c t e d b y p r i c e s and the p r o p o r t i o n of b u y e r s u n s a t i s f i e d ( u p p e r m o s t g r a p h ) r e s p e c t i v e l y . B e c a u s e t h e r e i s a s u s t a i n e d d e p r e s s i o n i n the q u a l i t y i m p a c t l o c u s f r o m about 1950 ( F i g u r e 11), and the c o u r s e of e v e n t s l a t e i n the d e v e l o p m e n t of the s y s t e m a r e of g r e a t e s t i n t e r e s t , a l l i n t e r v e n -t i o n s w e r e m a d e at the end of the 1965 m a r k e t p e r i o d . A s h a s b e e n the c a s e t h r o u g h o u t d i s c u s s i o n s of G I R L S , the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w h i c h f o l l o w r e f e r to the m o d e l and i t s i n t e r n a l w o r k i n g s . W h e r e o b v i o u s d e f i c i e n c i e s i n the a n a l o g y w i t h r e a l i t y o c c u r , they m u s t be i n t e r p r e t e d as j u s t s u c h d e f i c i e n c i e s and not s t a t e m e n t s about r e a l i t y . 57 S i m u l a t i o n S t u d i e s F i g u r e s 12 t h r o u g h 20 s h o w the r e s u l t s of the s i m u l a t e d d e v e l o p m e n t of the G u l f I s l a n d s w i t h i n t e r v e n t i o n s of v a r i o u s k i n d s . F o r c o n v e n i e n t c o m -p a r i s o n e a c h F i g u r e a l s o d i s p l a y s the u n i n t e r r u p t e d output . T o m i n i m i z e s e a r c h i n g t h r o u g h t e x t and F i g u r e s , a l l F i g u r e s a r e g r o u p e d at the end of t h i s d i s c u s s i o n . C o n s i d e r q u e s t i o n one, above , a n d the e f f e c t of a r e d u c e d r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h o n the d e v e l o p m e n t of the G u l f I s l a n d s . F i g u r e 12 r e p r e -s e n t s the G I R L S output u n d e r s u c h c i r c u m s t a n c e s . B e c a u s e of the l a r g e p r o -p o r t i o n of u n s a t i s f i e d b u y e r s a l r e a d y p r e s e n t , the s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s c o n t i n u e s as d o e s the s u s t a i n e d d e p r e s s i o n of q u a l i t y . P r i c e s , h o w e v e r , r i s e m o r e s l o w l y and the p e r c e n t a g e of u n s a t i s f i e d b u y e r s i s s l i g h t l y l o w e r t h a n i n the u n i n t e r r u p t e d r u n . The i n c r e a s e d r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h s i m u l a t e d i n F i g u r e 13 r e v e a l s a m o r e s e v e r e l y d e p r e s s e d q u a l i t y , h i g h e r p r i c e s , a n d m o r e u n s a t i s f i e d b u y e r s . T h e i n f l u e n c e of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h u p o n q u a l i t y a p p e a r s to be e v e n m o r e d r a m a t i c t h a n that of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . A r e d u c t i o n i n the r a t e of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m t h r e e to one p e r cent ( F i g u r e 14) e a s e s the s u s t a i n e d d e p r e s s i o n of q u a l i t y , a n d p r i c e s i n c r e a s e m o r e s l o w l y . B o t h t h e s e e v e n t s a r e the c o n s e q u e n c e of a r e d u c t i o n i n the n u m b e r of p e o p l e ab le to buy, a t r e n d r e f l e c t e d i n the p e r c e n t a g e of b u y e r s u n s a t i s f i e d . W h e n the r a t e of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i s i n c r e a s e d ( F i g u r e 15), q u a l i t y i s m o s t s e v e r e l y d e p r e s s e d a n d p r i c e s s k y r o c k e t . P e r h a p s m o r e i n t e r e s t i n g t h a n any o t h e r i n t e r v e n t i o n i s that s h o w n i n F i g u r e 16, w h e r e b o t h e c o n o m i c a n d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h w e r e e l i m i n a t e d . B e c a u s e the r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p s m o r e s l o w l y u n d e r t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s , the s u s -t a i n e d d e p r e s s i o n of q u a l i t y i s r e p l a c e d w i t h the l a r g e o s c i l l a t i o n s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of e a r l y d e v e l o p m e n t . T h a t i s , a l t h o u g h s m a l l l o t s a r e p r o -d u c e d , t h e i r r a t e of p r o d u c t i o n i s c o m p a r a t i v e l y l o w , h e n c e the r a t e of change 58 i n q u a l i t y i s a l s o l o w . T h e c o m p a r a t i v e r e s i l i e n c e of q u a l i t y i s m a i n t a i n e d so that t h e r e i s r e c o v e r y . T h e s y s t e m c a n " b o u n c e b a c k " . A c c o m p a n y i n g the a b o v e e v e n t s i s a p r i c e r e d u c t i o n and g r a d u a l r e d u c t i o n i n the p e r c e n t a g e of u n s a t i s f i e d b u y e r s i n the m a r k e t , a m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t t r e n d if one c o n s i d e r s p e o p l e to be i m p o r t a n t . B y r e d u c i n g the r a t e s of p o p u l a t i o n and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h to z e r o , the m a i n t e n a n c e of q u a l i t y and s a t i s f a c t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n c a n be a c h i e v e d , a c o n c l u s i o n i n d i r e c t c o n t r a d i c t i o n w i t h p o p u l a r b e l i e f . T h e i n t e r v e n t i o n s r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e s 17 t h r o u g h 30 w e r e m a d e to a n s w e r the s e c o n d q u e s t i o n a s k e d e a r l i e r . G o v e r n m e n t s c a n m a n i p u l a t e the s u p p l y a n d a p p a r e n t d e m a n d f o r a p a r t i c u l a r r e s o u r c e t h r o u g h m o n e t a r y , t a x , and r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t p o l i c i e s . T h e i m p o s i t i o n of a s a l e s t a x ( F i g u r e 17) e f f e c t i v e l y i n c r e a s e s the p r i c e a b u y e r m u s t p a y f o r a l o t . A s a l e s tax , t h e r e f o r e , s i m p l y r e d u c e s the n u m b e r of b u y e r s i n the m a r k e t , b u t w i t h the l a r g e n u m b e r a l r e a d y t h e r e a n d c o n t i n u e d g r o w t h , the l o n g - r u n e f f e c t of a s a l e s t a x i s n e g l i g i b l e . T h e n u m b e r of b u y e r s c a n a l s o be r e d u c e d b y i n c r e a s i n g i n t e r e s t r a t e s , a n e v e n t s i m u l a t e d i n F i g u r e 18. A g a i n , any r e d u c t i o n i n the d e g r a d a t i o n of q u a l i t y i s m o m e n t a r y at b e s t . T h e e v e n t u a l o u t c o m e i s e s s e n t i a l l y u n c h a n g e d . ' T h e i m p o s i t i o n of a p r o p e r t y t a x w i t h i n the m o d e l s i m p l y h a s t e n s the r e c y c l i n g of l o t s i n u s e . T h a t i s , a p r o p e r t y tax , w i t h i n G I R L S , i s a t o o l by w h i c h s u p p l y c a n be m a n i p u l a t e d . Its use ( F i g u r e 19) i n c r e a s e s the r a t e of q u a l i t y d e g r a d a t i o n and l o w e r s p r i c e s . A p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s u n u s u a l c o m b i n a t i o n of e f f e c t s i s that l o w e r e d p r i c e s , the r e s u l t of a m o r e r a p i d r e c y c l i n g of p r o p e r t i e s , b r i n g a s u m m e r h o m e s i t e w i t h i n the r e a c h of a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n . In r e s p o n s e to t h i s i n c r e a s e d m a r k e t s i z e , d e v e l o p e r s q u i c k l y p r o d u c e m o r e , t h e r e f o r e s m a l l e r l o t s , w h i c h e x e r t m o r e p r e s s u r e on e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . O n l y the i m p o s i t i o n of a m i n i m u m l o t s i z e , F i g u r e 20, p r e v i d e s n e a r l y c o m p l e t e r e l i e f f r o m the i m p a c t of f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t a n d s m a l l l o t s i z e on e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . A n t i c i p a t e d e c o n o m i c and s o c i a l e f f e c t s , a n 59 i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e s and p r o p o r t i o n of b u y e r s u n s a t i s f i e d , do not o c c u r l a r g e l y b e c a u s e m o s t b u y e r s a r e u n s a t i s f i e d a n y w a y . In e x a m i n i n g t h i s l a s t s i m u l a -t i o n , i t s c o m p a r i s o n w i t h that i n w h i c h p o p u l a t i o n and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h w e r e e l i m i n a t e d ( F i g u r e 16) p r o v e s i n t e r e s t i n g . In the l a t t e r c a s e , f r e e m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s p r e v a i l and s u s t a i n e d d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y does not t a k e p l a c e . In the f o r m e r c a s e , m a r k e t r e s t r i c t i o n s a r e i m p o s e d w h i c h , a c c o r d i n g to the one s i m p l e q u a l i t a t i v e m e a s u r e u s e d h e r e , p r e v e n t the d e t e r i o r a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . C o n s i d e r i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y a l o n e , a d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g b o d y c a p a b l e of e i t h e r m a n i p u l a t i o n m i g h t c h o o s e the m a r k e t r e s t r i c t i o n and i m p o s e a m i n i m u m l o t s i z e . S u c h a d e c i s i o n w o u l d c e r t a i n l y be t a k e n i f the p r o f i t m o t i v e w e r e i n v o l v e d b e c a u s e a r i s i n g m a r k e t i s m a i n t a i n e d a l o n g w i t h q u a l i t y . W h e r e b e t t e r to m a k e a p r o f i t ? S h o u l d i m p o r t a n c e be a c c o r d e d the p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n w h o s e d e s i r e f o r a s u m m e r h o m e s i t e w a s f u l f i l l e d , t h e n d e p e n d i n g u p o n the w e i g h t g i v e n that c r i t e r i a , the e l i m i n a t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h w o u l d h a v e to be g i v e n s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n . PRICE ($1000) DEVELOPMENT PER CENT PRICE f$1000) DEVELDPltNT PER CENT F i g u r e 12 . G I R L S output showing the effect of a reduced rate of population growth f r o m 1966. o F i g u r e 13. G I R L S output showing the effect of an a c c e l e r a t e d rate of population growth f r o m 1966. PRICE ($1000! CEVELCFMENT PER CENT PRICE ($1000) CCVELDRCNT PER CENT F i g u r e 14. G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a r e d u c e d r a t e of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m 1966. PRICE (JlflOO) W ft CEVELCFMENT F i g u r e 16. G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of z e r o p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m 1966. PRICE (tlCOO) DEVELOPMENT F i g u r e 17. G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a 10 per cent s a l e s t a x f r o m 1966 . F i g u r e 19 . G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f fec t of i n c r e a s e d p r o p e r t y t a x e s f r o m 1966 . c^ C O N C L U S I O N S T h e q u a l i t y of an- e n v i r o n m e n t u s e d f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n d e p e n d s i n p a r t upon p e r c e i v e d p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y . W i t h o u t the u s e of t e c h n i q u e s f i r s t d e v e l o p e d by p s y c h o p h y s i c i s t s , i t m i g h t be i m p o s s i b l e to s u p p o r t s u c h a s t a t e m e n t w i t h e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e . B e c a u s e t h e i r m e t h o d s a r e u n c o n s t r a i n e d , they m a k e i t p o s s i b l e to t r a c e c h a n g i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y as s o m e c o m p o n e n t of the e n v i r o n m e n t i s c h a n g e d . S u c h d o c u -m e n t a t i o n i s not p o s s i b l e u s i n g t r a d i t i o n a l e c o n o m i c or p o l i t i c a l m e t h o d s . B e c a u s e of the s u c c e s s of t h i s a t t e m p t to d e f i n e e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y u s i n g p s y c h o p h y s i c a l t e c h n i q u e s , c o n t i n u e d e f f o r t i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n s e e m s c e r t a i n of g r e a t s u c c e s s . T h e u s e of m o r e r e f i n e d m e t h o d s to d o c u m e n t the e f f e c t s of v i s u a l , a u d i o a n d o l i f a c t o r y p e r c e p t i o n on m a n ' s j u d g m e n t of h i s e n v i r o n m e n t w i l l l e a d to a n e x t r e m e l y u s e f u l m o d e l of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . W i t h s u c h a t o o l , the e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s e q u e n c e s of m a n y d i f f e r e n t k i n d s of r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t m a y be v i e w e d , as a r e d o l l a r s , i n c o o l , n u m e r i c a l t e r m s . G i v e n a s i m u l a t i o n p a c k a g e d e a l i n g w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y , a s e c o n d s t e p i s p o s s i b l e as d e m o n s t r a t e d by the G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a -t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r . T h a t i s , the e n v i r o n m e n t a l , s o c i a l and e c o n o m i c c o n s e q u e n c e s of r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t m a y be i n t e g r a t e d i n a l a r g e r s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l w h i c h c a n then be u s e d to a n t i c i p a t e v a r i o u s e f f e c t s of a l t e r n a t e p o l i c i e s . H o w e v e r , t h i s s e c o n d s t e p i s p o s s i b l e o n l y w h e n k e y i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s c a n be i d e n t i f i e d w h i c h t i e the a p p r o p r i a t e s y s t e m c o m p o n e n t s t o g e t h e r . T h e k e y v a r i a b l e i n the s t u d y j u s t c o m p l e t e d w a s " l o t s i z e " . T o that i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e the e c o n o m i c and e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s e q u e n c e s w e r e f i r m l y t i e d . The s o c i a l c o n s e q u e n c e i s i n d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to l o t s i z e i n that m a n y p e o p l e m a y be p r o v i d e d w i t h s m a l l l o t s , f e w e r w i t h 70 l a r g e r l o t s . S u c h k e y v a r i a b l e s m a y i n s o m e c a s e s be i m p o s s i b l e to i d e n t i f y . In a l l but s u c h c a s e s , s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l s p r o v i d e a p o w e r f u l i n t e g r a t i v e f r a m e w o r k w i t h i n w h i c h a l l t h r e e c o m p o n e n t s of o u r s o c i e t y c a n be v i e w e d i n c o n c e r t . In t h i s context , the G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r s t a n d s as a un ique e x a m p l e , not of a p a n a c e a , but of a n e w a n d p o w e r f u l a d d i t i o n to the t o o l s a v a i l a b l e to r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p e r s . 71 B I B L I O G R A P H Y B e r l y n e , D . E . a n d So P e c k h a m . 1966. The s e m a n t i c d i f f e r e n t i a l and o ther m e a s u r e s of r e a c t i o n to v i s u a l c o m p l e x i t y . C a n . J . P s y c h o l . 20(2): 1 2 5 - 1 3 5 . B e r r y , R . N . 1948. Q u a n t i t a t i v e r e l a t i o n s a m o n g . v e r n i e r , r e a l d e p t h , a n d s t e r e o s c o p i c d e p t h a c u i t i e s . J . E x p l . P s y c h o l . 3 8 : 7 0 8 - 7 2 1 . B l i s s , G . M . 1957 . C o s t of d e v e l o p i n g r a w l a n d i n t o b u i l d i n g l o t s . T e c h n . V a l u a t i o n 6 (Oct . ) : 2 3 - 2 5 . C h a m b e r s , A . D . 1969. L a n d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n c h e c k . R e s o u r c e S c i e n c e C e n t r e , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , C a n a d a . D a r l i n g , F . F r a s e r . 1951 . T h e e c o l o g i c a l a p p r o a c h to the s o c i a l s c i e n c e s . A m e r . S c i . 39.(2): 2 4 4 - 2 5 6 . D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s . 1970 . C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x . Q u e e n ' s P r i n t e r , O t t a w a . - ', . 1969 . C a n a d a Y e a r B o o k 1969 . Q u e e n ' s P r i n t e r , O t t a w a . . 1946 . C a n a d a Y e a r B o o k 1946 . K i n g ' s P r i n t e r , O t t a w a . . 1914 . C a n a d a Y e a r B o o k 1914. K i n g ' s P r i n t e r , O t t a w a . D o w n i n g , P a u l P . 1969. T h e e c o n o m i c s of u r b a n s e w a g e d i s p o s a l . F r e d e r i c k A . P r a e g e r , N e w Y o r k . E k m a n , G . and L . S j o b e r g . 1965 . S c a l i n g . A n n . R e v . P s y c h o l . 1 6 : 4 5 1 -4 7 4 . .. F e r g u s o n , C . E . 1966 . M i c r o e c o n o m i c T h e o r y . I r w i n , H o m e w o o d , I l l i n o i s . F i n e s , K . D . 1968 . L a n d s c a p e e v a l u a t i o n . A r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t i n e a s t S u s s e x . R e g i o n a l S t u d i e s 2 : 4 1 - 5 5 . G i b s o n , E . J . , R . B e r g m a n a n d J . P u r d y . 1955. The e f f e c t of p r i o r t r a i n i n g w i t h a s c a l e of d i s t a n c e on a b s o l u t e and r e l a t i v e j u d g m e n t s of d i s t a n c e o v e r g r o u n d . J . E x p . P s y c h o l . 5 0 : 9 7 - 1 0 5 . G i b s o n , J . J . 1958. P e r c e p t i o n of d i s t a n c e i n the o p e n a i r . I N : B e a r d s l e e a n d W e r t h e i m e r ( eds . ) . 1958 . R e a d i n g s i n P e r c e p t i o n . V a n N o s t r a n d , P r i n c e t o n . 72 H a l l e r t , B„ I 9 6 0 . P h o t o g r a m m e t r y . M c G r a w - H i l l , N e w Y o r k . H e r m a n n , C . C . , W . D e e m , R . M a l e k , G . W i n k e l , P . T h i e l and R . B a r r i n g e r . 1968. R e s p o n s e to the r o a d s i d e e n v i r o n m e n t . A . D . L i t t l e , I n c . , S a n F r a n c i s c o . H o l l i n g , C . S . 1966. The f u n c t i o n a l r e s p o n s e of i n v e r t e b r a t e p r e d a t o r s to p r e y d e n s i t y . M e m . E n t . S o c . C a n . 4 5 : 1 - 6 0 . H o l o w a y , A . H . a n d E . G . B o r i n g . 1941 . D e t e r m i n a n t s of a p p a r e n t v i s u a l s i z e w i t h d i s t a n c e v a r i a n t . A m e r . J . P s y c h o l . 5 1 : 2 1 - 3 7 . H o w a r d , J . H . 1919. A t e s t f o r the j u d g m e n t of d i s t a n c e . A m e r . J . O p h t h a l m o l o g y 2_(9):331 - 3 3 9 . J a c o b s , P . and D . W a y . 1969. V i s u a l a n a l y s i s of l a n d s c a p e d e v e l o p m e n t . D e p t . L a n d s c a p e A r c h i t e c t u r e , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . L a c e y , J . L , J . K a g a n , B . C . L a c e y and H . A . M o s s . 1963 . The v i s c e r a l l e v e l : s i t u a t i o n a l d e t e r m i n a n t s a n d b e h a v i o r a l c o r r e l a t e s of a u t o n o m i c r e s p o n s e p a t t e r n s . I N : K n a p p , P . H . (ed.) . 1963 . E x p r e s s i o n of the e m o t i o n s i n m a n . P n t e r n a t . U n i v . P r e s s , N e w Y o r k . P p : l 6 l - 1 9 6 . L e v i , L . 1965. S t r e s s o r s , s t r e s s t o l e r a n c e , e m o t i o n s and p e r f o r m a n c e i n r e l a t i o n to c a t e c h o l a m i n e e x c r e t i o n . I N : L e v i , L . (ed . ) . 19 E m o t i o n a l S t r e s s . A m e r . E l s e v i e r P u b . C o . , N e w Y o r k . P p . 1 9 2 - 2 0 0 . M a s h k e , D . K . 1963 . T h e c o s t s of s u b d i v i d i n g . R e a l E s t a t e A p p r a i s e r , 29: ( O c t . ) : 9 - 1 4 . M a s u d a , M . , and T . H . H o l m e s . 1967. M a g n i t u d e e s t i m a t i o n s of s o c i a l r e a d j u s t m e n t s . J o u r . P s y c h o l m a t i c R e s . 1 1 : 2 1 9 - 2 2 5 . M c K e e v e r , J . R o s s . 1968. T h e c o m m u n i t y b u i l d e r s h a n d b o o k . U r b a n L a n d I n s t i t u t e , W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . M o e s s n e r , K . E . 1954. A s i m p l e t e s t f o r s t e r e o s c o p i c p e r c e p t i o n . P h o t o g r a m m e t r i c E n g i n e e r i n g 2 1 : 3 3 1 - 3 3 9 -O s g o o d , C . E . 1952. T h e n a t u r e a n d m e a s u r e m e n t of m e a n i n g . P s y c h o l . B u l l . 4 9 : 1 9 7 - 2 3 7 . P e a r s o n , N . 1965 . The s e r v i c i n g c o s t c o n s e q u e n c e s of s e v e r a l r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t p a t t e r n s and t h e i r i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r m u n i c i p a l g o a l s and p o l i c i e s . M . A . T h e s i s , S c h o o l of C o m m u n i t y a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a - . 73 P e t e r s o n , G . L . and E . S . N e w m a n n . 1969. M o d e l l i n g and p r e d i c t i n g h u m a n r e s p o n s e to the v i s u a l r e c r e a t i o n e n v i r o n m e n t . J . L e i s u r e R e s e a r c h , l_(3) :219-237. Sanoff , H . 1969 . V i s u a l a t t r i b u t e s of the p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t . I N : C o a t e s , G . J . a n d K . M . M o f f e t t ( eds . ) . 1969. R e s p o n s e to E n v i r o n -m e n t . S tudent P u b l i c a t i o n s of the S c h o o l of D e s i g n , N o r t h C a r o l i n a S ta te U n i v e r s i t y , R a l e i g h . P p . 3 7 - 6 0 . S c h i f f , W m . 1965 . P e r c e p t i o n of i m p e n d i n g c o l l i s i o n . P s y c h o l . M o n o g . , 7 9 ( l l ) : l - 2 6 . S c h l o s b e r g , H . 1941 . S t e r e o s c o p i c d e p t h f r o m s i n g l e p i c t u r e s . A m e r . J . P s y c h o l . 5 4 : 6 0 1 - 6 0 5 . S h a f e r , E . L . , J . F . H a m i l t o n and E . A . S c h m i d t . 1969. N a t u r a l l a n d s c a p e p r e f e r e n c e s : a p r e d i c t i v e m o d e l . J . L e i s u r e R e s e a r c h , 1_( 1): 1 -1 9. S m i t h , W . F . 1969. O p t i m u m l o t s i z e w h e n s i te r e n t i s a t r a n s f e r p a y m e n t . A n a l s of R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e , _3(1): 8 - 1 5 . S t e v e n s , S . S . (ed.) 1951 . H a n d b o o k of E x p e r i m e n t a l P s y c h o l o g y . W i l e y , N e w Y o r k . . I 9 6 0 . T h e p s y c h o p h y s i c s of s e n s o r y f u n c t i o n . A m e r . S c i e n t i s t , 4 8 : 2 2 6 - 2 5 3 . T h o m s e n , C . B . 1968. E c o n o m i c o p t i m i z a t i o n of i n c o m e - p r o d u c i n g b u i l d i n g s w i t h c o m p u t e r s . I N : R a t c l i f f , R . U . (ed. ) . C o l l o q u i u m on c o m p u t e r a p p l i c a t i o n s i n r e a l e s t a t e i n v e s t m e n t a n a l y s i s . F a c u l t y of C o m m e r c e and B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r . P p . 9 - 1 4 . T r e i s m a n , M . 1 9 6 6 . A s t a t i s t i c a l d e c i s i o n m o d e l f o r s e n s o r y d i s c r i m i n a -t i o n w h i c h p r e d i c t s W e b e r ' s l a w and o t h e r s e n s o r y l a w s : S o m e r e s u l t s of a c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n . P e r c e p t , and P s y c h o p h y s . 1 : 2 0 3 - 2 3 0 . W a g n e r , P . E . 1957. S u b d i v i s i o n C o s t s . R e s i d e n t i a l A p p r a i s e r , 23 ( M a y ) : 1 2 - 1 4 . Wendt , P . F . 1967. L a r g e - s c a l e c o m m u n i t y d e v e l o p m e n t . J . F i n a n c e , 2 2 ( 2 ) : 2 2 0 - 2 3 9 . 74 A P P E N D I X I T H E C O N T R I B U T I O N O F B I N O C U L A R V I S I O N T O T H E P E R C E P T I O N O F D I S T A N C E D e p t h , o r d i s t a n c e p e r c e p t i o n , h a s l o n g b e e n thought d e p e n d e n t on b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n , a l t h o u g h m o n o c u l a r c u e s h a v e b e e n d e m o n s t r a t e d to be i m p o r t a n t a s w e l l ( G i b s o n , 1958) . T h e p u r p o s e of t h i s e x e r c i s e i s f i r s t to c a l c u l a t e the c o n t r i b u t i o n b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n c a n m a k e to d i s t a n c e j u d g m e n t s . T h e n , by c o m p a r i n g t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h a c t u a l f i e l d j u d g m e n t s , the r e l a -t i v e i m p o r t a n c e of m o n o c u l a r c u e s m a y be a s s e s s e d . C o n s i d e r two o b j e c t s A _ a n d A 2 a t d i s t a n c e s D_ a n d D 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y f r o m a n o b s e r v e r ( F i g u r e 1). T h e i r b i n o c u l a r p e r c e p t i o n i s d e p e n d e n t u p o n the t o t a l r e t i n a l d i s p a r i t y (both, eyes) of the i m a g e s a a n d b ( H a l l e r t , I 960 ) . T h i s d i s p a r i t y i s c o m p r i s e d of c o m p o n e n t s i n t h r e e p l a n e s : v e r t i c a l , l a t e r a l , a n d l o n g i t u d i n a l . D i s p l a c e m e n t i n the l a s t , o r l o n g i t u d i n a l p l a n e , i s the c o m -p o n e n t g i v i n g r i s e to b i n o c u l a r p e r c e p t i o n of the d i s t a n c e D i + 1 " D l • •= A ° i -D i a g r a m m a t i c a l l y , t h e r e f o r e , A 2 i s d r a w n d i r e c t l y a b o v e A _ . T w o f u r t h e r o b s e r v a t i o n s w h i c h e x p l a i n the s y m m e t r y of F i g u r e 1: a) If a s k e d what d i s t a n c e s e p a r a t e d the o b j e c t s , a n o b s e r v e r w o u l d t u r n to f a c e t h e m d i r e c t l y . B y so d o i n g he w o u l d m a x i m i z e the e f f e c t i v e s e p a r a t i o n of h i s e y e s , c o n s e q u e n t l y , h i s b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n . A 2 B i s t h e r e f o r e p e r p e n d i c u l a r to L R . b) D i s t a n c e s D^ a r e m u c h g r e a t e r t h a n the eye s e p a r a t i o n L R . A 2 B i s t h e r e f o r e c o n s i d e r e d to b i s e c t L R . R e t i n a l d i s p a r i t y (p) i n the l e f t eye ( F i g u r e 1) i s c l e a r l y r e l a t e d to the a n g l e y32 - y3i = AjS a n d the f o c a l l e n g t h of the eye (f). 7 5 A p p e n d i x F i g u r e 1. T h e g e o m e t r y of b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n . 76 p = f A/3 T h e s a m e i s t r u e f o r the r i g h t eye so that the s u m m e d d i s p a r i t y i s P •= p + p 1 = 2 f Aj8. I n t u i t i v e l y , one m i g h t e x p e c t a m i n i m u m d e t e c t a b l e P to e x i s t . S u c h i n t u i t i o n i s s u p p o r t e d b y d a t a ( M o e s s n e r , 1954) w h i c h s u g g e s t s 0 .00021 r a d i a n s 1 to be the m i n i m u m Aj3 w h i c h t r a i n e d o b s e r v e r s c a n d e t e c t w i t h s o m e c o n s i s t e n c y . T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n to the p e r c e p t i o n of d i s -t a n c e m a y t h e r e f o r e be r e l a t e d to c h a n g e s i n the f u n c t i o n 2 D . p\ = a r c t a n o r w h i c h b e c o m e s L i R 2 L R A ^ = ( L R ) 2 + 4 D ^ A ° i A D t = A j S ( L R 2 + 4 D i 2 ) L R ' 1 . T h a t i s , a n o b j e c t at s o m e d i s t a n c e D^ f r o m a n o b s e r v e r m u s t be m o v e d t h r o u g h a d i s t a n c e AD^ s u f f i c i e n t to p r o d u c e the m i n i m u m a n g u l a r change A {$ b e f o r e b i n o c u l a r d e t e c t i o n of A D ^ c a n o c c u r . V a r i a t i o n i n b i n o c u l a r a c u i t y c a n be e x p e c t e d a s a c o n s e q u e n c e of v a r i a t i o n i n (1) eye s e p a r a t i o n ( L R ) , the r a n g e of w h i c h i s 65 _+ 7 m m ( H o w a r d , 1919), a n d (2) A p\ F i g u r e s 2 a n d 3 d e p i c t the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n d i s t a n c e (D), the change (AD) r e q u i r e d to p r o d u c e a n a m b i t i o u s ^^rnin = 0 .00010 r a d i a n s , a n d the i n f l u e n c e of eye s e p a r a t i o n o n b i n o c u l a r d i s t a n c e p e r c e p t i o n . A l s o s h o w n 1 M o e s s n e r ' s d a t a s u g g e s t A j S m i n i s r e a c h e d w h e n D i ( F i g u r e 1) i s 122 m m a n d X Y l i e s b e t w e e n 0 .0254 a n d .01 27 m m v i e w e d t h r o u g h two p o w e r l e n s e s . T h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n of D x w a s t h r o u g h p e r s o n a l c o r r e s p o n d e n c e w i t h D r . M o e s s n e r a n d the A b r a m s I n s t r u m e n t C o r p o r a t i o n . 0 . 1 2 7 m m n n n n • 0 . 2 5 4 m m „ — — = 0 .00010 r a d i a n s — - r r = 0 .0127 r a d i a n s 1 2 2 m m 12 2 m m 77 100 + DISTANCE (METRES) A p p e n d i x F i g u r e 2. T h e m i n i m u m change i n d i s t a n c e (AD) a n o b s e r v e r c o u l d d e t e c t u s i n g b i n o c u l a r c u e s a l o n e , a n d that A D w h i c h c a n be d e t e c t e d , at v a r i o u s d i s t a n c e s (D) f r o m the o b s e r v e r . A f t e r G i b s o n , e _ a l . (1) 78 S5 + LLJ D- SO u SO 40 EO DISTANCE (METRES) A p p e n d i x F i g u r e 3. T h e m i n i m u m change i n d i s t a n c e (AD) a n o b s e r v e r c o u l d d e t e c t u s i n g b i n o c u l a r c u e s a l o n e , a n d that A D w h i c h c a n be d e t e c t e d , a t v a r i o u s d i s t a n c e s (D) f r o m the o b s e r v e r . A f t e r G i b s o n , e_t al_. (1) 79 50 + • < f -_ J LLJ • \ >-U Z u rH u L L LL. LLI 40 30 1 EO 1 10 50 100 150 EOO A p p e n d i x F i g u r e 4 . DISTANCE (METRES) T h e e f f i c i e n c y of b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n a l o n e c o m p a r e d w i t h that of c o m p l e t e v i s i o n i n the j u d g m e n t of d i s t a n c e . A f t e r G i b s o n , et a l . (1) 80 a r e data of G i b s o n , et ad. , (1955) who f o u n d s u b j e c t s c a p a b l e of d i s t i n g u i s h i n g m u c h s m a l l e r A D ' s at m u c h g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e s t h a n w o u l d be p o s s i b l e t h r o u g h b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n a l o n e . T o m a k e the above c o m p a r i s o n m o r e t r a n s p a r e n t , the r e c i p r o c a l of AD m a y be c o n s i d e r e d a m e a s u r e of the e f f i c i e n c y w i t h w h i c h d i s t a n c e i s p e r -c e i v e d ; that i s , at c l o s e q u a r t e r s d i s t a n c e j u d g m e n t s a r e v e r y e f f i c i e n t a n d a v e r y s m a l l AD m a y be d e t e c t e d e a s i l y . T h e r e v e r s e i s t r u e of j u d g m e n t s i n -v o l v i n g r e m o t e o b j e c t s . F i g u r e 4, t h e r e f o r e d e p i c t s the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n d i s t a n c e a n d the e f f i c i e n c y w i t h w h i c h i t s c h a n g e i s p e r c e i v e d . T h e i n f e r e n c e of the a b o v e f i g u r e s i s that b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n d o m i n a t e s d i s t a n c e j u d g m e n t s up to 9 o r 10 m e t r e s . B e y o n d that d i s t a n c e , m o n c u l a r c u e s a s s u m e d o m i n a n c e a n d the c o n t r i b u t i o n b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n c a n m a k e to the p e r c e p t i o n of d i s t a n c e d i m i n i s h e s r a p i d l y . A P P E N D I X II Q U E S T I O N N A I R E S U S E D I N T H E S T U D Y O F L O T S I Z E A S A M E A S U R E O F E N V I R O N M E N T A L Q U A L I T Y 82 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E I . S u b j e c t i v e E v a l u a t i o n of L a n d s c a p e a n d D e v e l o p m e n t . Y o u w i l l be p r e s e n t e d w i t h t w o s e r i e s of p i c t u r e s i n w h i c h c e r t a i n c h a n g e s h a v e b e e n m a d e , and a s k e d to g r a d e t h e m a c c o r d i n g to y o u r p r e f e r e n c e . B u t f i r s t , w o u l d y o u p l e a s e a n s w e r the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s ? W h e r e d i d y o u g r o w up? In the c o u n t r y • I n a t o w n or c i t y , p o p u l a t i o n u n d e r 10, 000 10, 000 - 50, 000 50, 000 - 100, 000 100, 000 - 250, 000 o v e r 250, 000 O r s p e c i f y W h e r e do y o u l i v e n o w ? I n G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r ' (p lease s p e c i f y , e . g . , K i t s i l a n o , N o r t h S u r r e y , B u r n a b y , etc . ) E l s e w h e r e ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) W o u l d y o u m i n d t e l l i n g m e h o w o l d y o u a r e ? U n d e r 12 y e a r s [__ '12 - 20 • 21 - 30 • A r e y o u m a r r i e d ? s i n g l e ? | [ o t h e r ? Q 31 - 40__] o v e r 40 Q A r e y o u m a l e ? • f e m a l e ? • D o y o u h a v e any c h i l d r e n ? N o [__] Y e s [^} A g e s . . . W h a t i s y o u r f a m i l y ' s y e a r l y i n c o m e ? u n d e r $7, 000 $7, 000 - 10, 000 • $10, 000 - 1 5, 000 C ] o v e r $15 , 000 Q D o y o u own, or a r e y o u i n t e r e s t e d i n o w n i n g a s u m m e r c o t t a g e ? a l r e a d y o w n 1 1 i n t e r e s t e d i n o w n i n g [ [ n o t i n t e r e s t e d | | 83 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E I ( cont inued) N o w c o n s i d e r t h a t y o u a r e s h o p p i n g f o r a s u m m e r c o t t a g e . O n the s c r e e n a r e t w o g r o u p s of p i c t u r e s , a l l s u p p o s e d l y t a k e n f r o m the s a m e p o r c h ; the p o r c h of a c o t t a g e w h i c h p l e a s e s y o u i n i t s d e s i g n a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n , a n d w h i c h y o u m i g h t t h e r e f o r e b u y . I w o u l d l i k e to k n o w w h i c h l o c a t i o n s ( p i c t u r e s ) y o u p r e f e r f o r y o u r co t tage a n d h o w m u c h y o u p r e f e r t h e m o v e r the o t h e r s . W o u l d y o u t h e r e f o r e p l e a s e g r a d e the p i c t u r e s w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p ' o n the s c a l e s p r o v i d e d . E X A M P L E G R O U P I G R O U P . II P r e f e r M o r e P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 P r e f e r L e s s x x P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 P r e f e r M o r e P r e f e r L e s s P r e f e r M o r e P r e f e r L e s s C o m m e n t s : 84 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E II . S u b j e c t i v e E v a l u a t i o n of L a n d s c a p e and D e v e l o p m e n t . Y o u w i l l be p r e s e n t e d w i t h t w o s e r i e s of p i c t u r e s i n w h i c h c e r t a i n c h a n g e s h a v e b e e n m a d e and a s k e d to g r a d e t h e m a c c o r d i n g to y o u r p r e f e r e n c e . B u t f i r s t , w o u l d y o u p l e a s e a n s w e r the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s ? W h e r e d i d y o u g r o w up? I n the c o u n t r y • I n a t o w n or c i t y , p o p u l a t i o n u n d e r 10, 000 10, 000 - 50, 000 50, 000 - 100, 000 100, 000 - 250, 000 o v e r 250, 000 O r s p e c i f y W h e r e do y o u l i v e n o w ? I n G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y , e . g . , K i t s i l a n o , N o r t h S u r r e y , B u r n a b y , etc . ) E l s e w h e r e ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) , W o u l d y o u m i n d t e l l i n g m e h o w o l d - y o u a r e ? U n d e r 12 y e a r s 12 - 20 • * o v e r 40 [ | 21 - 30 Q A r e y o u m a r r i e d ? • s i n g l e ? | | • o t h e r ? \~J A r e y o u m a l e ? • f e m a l e ? tZU D o y o u h a v e any c h i l d r e n ? N o [ ] ; Y e s Q A g e s . . . W h a t i s y o u r f a m i l y ' s y e a r l y i n c o m e ? u n d e r $ 7 , 0 0 0 $7, 000 - 10, 000 • $10, 000 - 15, 000 O o v e r $15 , 000 Q D o y o u o w n , or a r e y o u i n t e r e s t e d i n o w n i n g a s u m m e r c o t t a g e ? a l r e a d y o w n | 1 i n t e r e s t e d i n - o w n i n g 1 | not i n t e r e s t e d | | 85 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E I I . ( cont inued) O n the s c r e e n a r e two g r o u p s of p i c t u r e s , a l l s u p p o s e d l y t a k e n f r o m the p o r c h of y o u r s u m m e r c o t t a g e . I w o u l d l i k e to k n o w w h i c h v i e w s y o u p r e f e r and h o w m u c h y o u p r e f e r t h e m o v e r the o t h e r s . W o u l d y o u t h e r e f o r e p l e a s e g r a d e the p i c t u r e s w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p on the s c a l e s p r o v i d e d . E X A M P L E G R O U P I G R O U P II P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 P r e f e r M o r e x x P r e f e r M o r e P r e f e r M o r e x P r e f e r L e ss x P r e f e r L e s s P r e f e r L e s s C o m m e n t s : Q U E S T I O N N A I R E I I I . S u b j e c t i v e E v a l u a t i o n of L a n d s c a p e a n d D e v e l o p m e n t . Y o u w i l l be p r e s e n t e d w i t h t w o s e r i e s of p i c t u r e s i n w h i c h c e r t a i n c h a n g e s h a v e b e e n m a d e and a s k e d to g r a d e t h e m a c c o r d i n g to y o u r p r e f e r e n c e . B u t f i r s t , w o u l d y o u p l e a s e a n s w e r the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s ? 1. W h e r e d i d y o u g r o w up? In the c o u n t r y I n a t o w n or c i t y , p o p u l a t i o n u n d e r 10, 000 10, 000 - 50, 000 50, 000 - 100, 000 100, 000 - . 250 , 000 o v e r 250, 000 O r s p e c i f y 2 . W h e r e do y o u l i v e n o w ? I n G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y , e . g . , K i t s i l a n o , N o r t h S u r r e y , B u r n a b y , etc . ) * E l s e w h e r e ( p l e a s e s p e c i f y ) . . . . . 3 . W o u l d y o u m i n d t e l l i n g m e h o w o l d y o u a r e ? U n d e r 12 y e a r s • 31 - 40 • ' 12 - 20 • o v e r 40 [~~| 21 - 30 [ • 4 . A r e y o u m a r r i e d ? L_l A r e y o u m a l e ? L~] s i n g l e ? [__J f e m a l e ? o t h e r ? Q 5 . D o y o u h a v e any c h i l d r e n ? N o [___] Y e s Q A g e s 6. W h a t i s y o u r f a m i l y ' s y e a r l y i n c o m e ? u n d e r $7, 000 [__ $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 - 1 5 , 000 • $ 7 , 0 0 0 - 1 0 , 0 0 0 • o v e r $ 1 5 , 0 0 0 [ ] ] 87 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E III ( cont inued) N o w c o n s i d e r that y o u a r e s h o p p i n g f o r a h o u s e . O n the s c r e e n a r e two g r o u p s of p i c t u r e s , a l l s u p p o s e d l y t a k e n f r o m the s a m e p o r c h ; the p o r c h of a h o u s e w h i c h p l e a s e s y o u i n i t s d e s i g n and c o n s t r u c t i o n , and w h i c h y o u m i g h t t h e r e -f o r e b u y . I w o u l d l i k e to k n o w w h i c h l o c a t i o n s ( p i c t u r e s ) y o u p r e f e r f o r y o u r h o u s e , a n d h o w m u c h y o u p r e f e r t h e m o v e r the o t h e r s . W o u l d y o u t h e r e f o r e p l e a s e g r a d e the p i c t u r e s w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p on the s c a l e s p r o v i d e d . E X A M P L E G R O U P I G R O U P II P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 P r e f e r M o r e P r ef e r L e s s x P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 P i c t u r e 1 2 3 4 x X P r e f e r M o r e P r e f e r L e s s P r e f ex-M o r e P r e f e r L e s s C o m m e n t s ; A P P E N D I X III A L I S T I N G O F G I R L S 89 // FOR INCOM *ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E INCOM COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 » G S 2 » G M X 2 » G S C 2 • I G M 2 » G S 3 * G S C 3 . COMMON S A V E ( 6 * 5 ) » S A V E S ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E Y l 6 » 5 ) » I C T •COMMON G O * A » N Y » A C O N * B C O N ? D K * 1Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) * V F I N < 100) • R M N 1 N ( 1 0 0 ) » E C D E V » G R O T H » 6 I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) * S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) t A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) » P R 0 P 1 7 ) » 0 L 0 T ( 7 I t 6 0 ) * P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V ( 7 ) * D E V ( 7 ) » C 0 N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S B I D ( 7 ) * H A P Y ( 7 ) s D I S A T t O R I G 2 ( 7 ) » T O L O T t F 3 COMMON T H R S H » X L A R G » S M A L L * A K i P R O F t A V L N D l 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S f 7 ) » 1 A S I Z E ( 7 ) » D M A N D ( 7 ) * X X K » X X L »XT > X X M » X X P * C O N S B t C O N S S » K O D E t D A R E A COMMON R E V P T » R E V S T n P T X j S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » B E T A » T H E T A » F I N T » S I N T » MOR T1•M ORT 2 » F M O R G COMMON QTOT C c c c c 4 C 5 6 OF MEAN INCOMES Y E A R S 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 2 0 (RMNIN) E Q U I V A L E N C E ( R M N I N ( 2 2) » R 2 2) » ( R M N I N ( 3 2 ) » R 3 2 ) 1 (RMNIN<52) » R ? 2 ) » ( R M N I N ( 6 2 > » R 6 2 ) I N PUT OF KNOWN MEAN INCOMES (RMNIN) FOR C ENSUS Y E A R S 19 2 1 * 1 9 3 1 * 1 9 4 1 * 1 9 5 1 * 1 9 6 1 R 2 2 = 2 2 0 9 o R 3 2 = 2 6 8 7 B R4 2 = 2 6 0 8 « R 5 2 = 2 4 2 4 « R 6 2 = 5 2 2 2 « YEAR = 1 + 1 8 9 9 D E T E R M I N A T ION FOR P R E C E N S U S F A C 1 0 = R 3 2 / R 2 2 F A C 1 = F A B 1 0 * * O e l 0 DO 3 J = 1*21 I = 2 2 - J R M N I N ( I ) = RMN IN( 1 + 1 ) / F A C 1 FOR Y E A R S BETWEEN C E N S U S E S DO 4 I = 2 3 » 3 1 R M N I N ( I ) = RMNIN( I - 1 ) * F AC 1 FOR Y E A R S BETWEEN C E N S U S E S DO 6 J = l » 3 L = J * 1 0 + 20 F A C 1 0 = R M N I N ( L + 1 2 ) / R M N I N ( L + 2 ) F A C 1 = F A C 1 0 * * 6 • 1 0 L 3 = L + 3 L l l = L + 11 ( R M N I N ( 4 2 ) « R 4 2 ) 1 9 2 2 - 1 9 3 0 193 2 - 1 9 4 0 * 1 9 4 2 - 1 9 5 0 . 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 6 0 DO 5 I : R M N I N ( I ) C O N T I N U E C O N T I N U E RETURN END L 3 » L 1 1 • RMN IN( 1 - 1 ) * F A C 1 // DUP * D E L E T E * S T O R E WS UA INCOM INCOM 90 // FOR I N I T L #ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E I N I T L COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 » G S 2 » G M X 2 » G S C 2 « I G M 2 » G S 3 » G S C 3 _ COMMON S A V E ( 6 I . 5 ) » S A V £ S ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 I 5 ) » I C T COMMON GO * A » N Y • A C O N > B C O N » BK » I Y COMMON '. 0 t POP ( 8 ) » V F IN ( 1 0 0 ) tRMNIN ( 100 ) » EC DE V » G R O T H t B I DN ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E t 7)»SAL(7) »SAL1(7) •SAL 2(7) »AGR1•SOLD(7) » P R 0 P ( 7 ) ,0L0T(7 1»60) « P ( 6 0 ! iUNDV(7) » D E V ( 7 ) *CON(7) » T O T ( 7 ) »SBI D< 7) » H A P Y ( 7 ) » D I S A T s O R l G 2 ( 7 ) » T O L O T * F 3 COMMON T H R S H tXLARG » S M A L L tAK»P ROF 9 AVLND(7)»fcj I G ( 7 ) • H O L D ( 7 ) • D L O T S ( 1 ) » 1 A S I Z E ( 7 ) JDMAND(7) » X X K >XXL tXT * X X M » X X P » C O N S B » C O N S S » K O D E » D A R E A COMMON R E V P T » R E V S T » P TX » S A L TX COMMON A L P H A j S E T A » TH E T A j F I NT »SI NT » MORT1oMORT 2 » FMORG COMMON QTOT GO = 1 9 0 0 . D=2792«8. GROTH=.02844 ECDEV=«03 AGR1=1000. CONSB=o0001 CONSS=0aQQ7 ICT = 1 DO 11 1 = 1»7 H A P Y l I ) = 0 cO . H O L D ( I ) = 0.0 COM I ) = 0. UNDV(I)=ORIG( I)-FRS L E ( I ) * A S I Z E ( I ) DEV( I ) = OaO S A L ( I ) - S A L 1 ( I ) DO 11 J = 1*60 11 O L O T ( l > J ) = 0 o T O L O T = 0.0 BK=1.5E-06 C - — F 2 ( I ) IS THE P R O P O R T I O N OF P E O P L E E A R N I N G ( 1 * 1 0 0 0 ) WHO WISH TO BUY C — LAND « I N I T I A L L Y MAXIMUM P R O P O R T I O N OF' .8 AT 1 = 15 PMAX=»S Q P I N C = 1 5 . DO 2 0 1 = 1 » 1 0 0 XX = I F 2 m = P M A X * E X P U ~ e 6 3 6 6 / ' 0 P I N C * * 2 » * ( X X - 0 P l N C j * * 2 * 20 CONTINUE SALTX=0. PTX=0.005 C— MOTGAGE S U B R O U T I N E P A R A M E T E R S ALPHA=.2 5 BETA=e 5 THETA=.35 FINT=«02 SINT=i035 MORT1=15 MORT2=10 R E T U R N END 91 // DUP *DELETE INITL •KSTQRE WS UA INITL // FOR PROBS *QNE WORD INTEGERS SUBROUTINE PROBS COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 » G S 2 »GMX2 tGSC2•IGM2 »GS3 »GSC3 COMMON SAVE( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E S ( 6 t 5) s SAVEY( 6 » 5 ) »ICT COMMON G O » A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K » I Y COMMON D»POP C 3) »VFIN(100.) >RMNIN(10 0) tECDEV»GROTH»BIDN(100) •F2(100) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) »SAL1(7) »SAL2(7) » A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) >PROP(7) »OLOT(7 1»6U) »P(60) »U.NDV(7) *DEV(7) »CON(7) # TOT ( 7 ) »SBI D ( 7 ) »HAPY(7) * D I S A T » G R I G 2 ( 7 ) t T O L O T » F 3 COMMON T H R S H » X L A R G » SMALL t A K » P R O F »A VLND ( 7 ) »B I G ( 7 ) » HOLD ( 7 ) » DLOTS ( 7 ) * IAS I ZE ( 7 ) » DMAND ( 7 ) » XXK »XXL »XT » XXM • XX P »CONSB » CONSS » KODE »DAREA COMMON REVPT.REVST »PTX»SALTX COMMON ALPHA» BETA » THETA » FI NT»SI N T • M O R T 1 » M Q R T 2 • F M O R G COMMON QTOT C — c c— 10 c— 20 SUBROUTINE COMPUTES THE ON THE S I Z E OF PROPERTY MEAN=3Q«*( l . - P T X / « Q 8 8 ) + M E A N = 3 0 * 5 - 3 4 0 « 9 # P T X M2=MEAN*2 XBAR=MEAN XBAR1=MEAN+1 SD = XBAR/3 . P<1)=GAUS< ( 1 « - X 8 A R ) / S D ) - GAUS(-XBAR/SD) DO 10 1=2»M2 XX = I P( I )=GAUS( (XX-X3AR)/SD)-GAUS( (XX-XBAR1)/SD) CONTINUE SET REMAINING P ( I ) TO 1. M2=M2+1 DO 20 I=M2»60 P ( I ) = 1 . CONTINUE RETURN END POROBA3ILITY OF RESALE OF OLD LOTS BASED TAX WHICH MUST L I E IN THE RANGE Oo TO .059 5 // DUP ^DELETE •STORE WS UA PROBS PROBS 92 // FOR MORTG *QNE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E MORTG COMMON G M X l » l G M l * G S 2 t G M X 2 » G S C 2 » l G M 2 t G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 9 5 ) > S A V E S ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 * 5 ) t I C T COMMON G O * A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K . » IY COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) i R M N I N ( 1 0 0 ) » E C D E V » G R O T H » B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) > S A L 1 ( 7 ) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) * P R O P ( 7 ) # 0 L 0 T ( 7 1 » 6 0 ) » P ( 6 0 ) . » U N D V ( 7) » D E V ( 7) » C O N ( 7 ) » TOT 17) » S B I D ( 7 ) *HAPY( 7 ) » D I S A T »OR I G 2 ( 7 ) « T 0 L 0 T » F 3 COMMON T H R S H 9 X L A R G » S M A L L 9 AK 9 PROF » A V L N D ( 7 ) 1 B I G I 7 ) » H 0 L D ( 7 ) » D L 0 T S ( 7 ) » 1 A S I Z E ( 7 ) 9DMAND(7) » X X K » X X L » X T » X X M 9 X X P 9 C 0 N S 3 9 C O N S S 9 K O D E 9DAREA COMMON R EV P T 9 RE VS T 9 P T X 9 S A L T X COMMON A L P H A * B E T A » T H E T A » F I N T * S I NT 9MOR T19MORT 2 » F M O R G COMMON QTOT c ; . . C — A L P H A MAX. F I R S T MORTGAGE D E B T / S E R V I C E U.--1. G E N . .25 C — B E T A MAX. F I R S T LOAN TO V A L U E u « - l . G E N . 0 6 6 C — T H E T A M A X « T O T A L D E B T / S E R V I C E u . - l . G E N . .35 C — F I NT H A L F F I R S T MORTGAGE I N T E R E S T RATE C — S I NT H A L F SECOND MORTGAGE I N T E R E S T R A T E C — M O R T l F I R S T MORTGAGE A M O R T I Z A T I O N P E R I O D IN Y E A R S C - - MORT2 SECOND MORTGAGE A M O R T I Z A T I O N P E R I O D IN Y E A R S C — FMORG IS THE S M A L L E R OF THE M U L T I P L Y I N G F A C T O R S F R A C 1 * FRA C 2 c . D E N l = 12s-«-BETA-«- ( ( ( l . + F I N T ) * * . 1 6 6 - 1 . ) / '. 1. - I 1.+ F I NT ) ** l - 2 * M O R T l I ) ) + PT - I X DEN2 = 1 2 e * ( 1 0 - B E T A ) * ( ( 1 e + S I N T ) * * . 1 6 6 - 1 . ) / ( 1 ( 1 . + S I N T ) * * ( - 2 * M O R T 2 ) ) F R A C 1 = T H E T A / ( D E M 1 + D E N 2 ) F R A C 2 = A L P H A / D E N 1 C — S E L E C T S M A L L E R OF TWO F R A C T I O N S • I F ( F R A C 1 - F R A C 2 ) 50 9 50 9 60 5 0 FM0RG=FRAC1 GO TO 70 60 FM0RG=FRAC2 70 C O N T I N U E RETURN END // DUP * D E L E T E MORTG * S T O R E WS UA MORTG // FOR P O P I M *ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E POP IN D I M E N S I O N V F A M ( 8 ) COMMON G M X 1 9 I G M 1 9 GS 2 9 GMX29 GSC2 9 IGM2 9GS3 9GSC3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 .5) 9 S A V E S ( 6 9 5 ) 9 S A V E Y ( 6 9 5 ) 9 I C T COMMO N GO 9 A 9 N Y 9 A C 0 N » B CO N 9 S K 9 1 Y COMMON D 9 P O P ( 8 ) 9 V F I N ( 100) 9 R M N I N ( 1 0 0) 9 E C D E V 9 G R O T H 9 B 1 D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0) 93 COMMON F R S L E I 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) »SAL1 (7 ) »SAL2 (7 ) »AGRl»SOLD(7 ) t PROP (7 ) *OLOT<7 1 » 6 0 ) »P (60 ) * UNDV< 7) s D E V (7! »CON(7) i T O T ( 7 ) »SB I D ( 7 J »HAPY(7) »D I SAT »OR IG 2 ( 7 ) » T O L Q T i F 3 COMMON THRSr i , XLARG »SMALL»AK »PROF * A V L N D ( 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) * HOLD(7) *DLOTS (7 ) * 1A S IZ E ( 7 ) »D M A N D ( 7 ) J X X K • X X L t X T » X X M s> X X P » C 0 N S 3 t C 0 N S S • K 0 D E «D A R E A COMMON REVPT »REVST» PTXoSALTX COMMON ALPHA »BETA *THETA»FI NT »SINT»MORT1 *MORT2 »FMORG COMMON QTOT DATA V F A M / O o 3 4 0 » 0 e 2 0 0 » 0 6 2 1 6 » 0 « 1 3 2 » 0 » 0 6 5 0 * O e 0 262»0«0116*0*00976/ DATA PRO/D 2 4 / DATA S D 6 1 / 2 8 1 6 . . / C — THIS SUBROUTINE COMBINES THE OLD POPI AND ECOi\2* AND DETERMINES C POPULATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH C 'THIS SECT ION REPLACES POPI C-- D TOTAL POPULAT ION C—• GROTH PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE OF PGPULAIONe PRIOR TO 1966» GROWTH C — RATE IS 2 » 8 4 4 ( FROM BASE OF 2 7 9 * 2 8 8 IN 1900 C — PRO REC IPROCAL OF AVERAGE FAMILY S I Z E C — V F A M ( I ) PROPORTION OF POPULATION WITH I PEOPLE IN THE FAMILY IF (GO-1951) 1 0 * 1 0 * 2 0 10 D = D * 1 . 0 2 8 4 4 GO TO 30 20 D*D* ( l e+GROTH) 30 POOP=D*PRO C — ETERMINE NUMBER OF F A M I L I E S IN EACH FAMILY S I Z E CATEGORY DO 40 I = l » 8 P O P ( I ) = P O O P * V F A M ( I ) 40 CONTINUE C THIS SECT ION R E P L A C E S ECON2 IF ( I Y - 6 2 ) 60 »60»50 C DETERMINATION OF MEAN INCOME (RMNIN) FOR POST CENSUS YEARS 1 9 6 2 - 2 0 0 0 C — ECDEV PERCENTAGE RATE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 5 0 RMN IN ( I Y )= R M N I N ( I Y - 1 ) * ( 1 •+ E C D E V ) 60 CONTINUE C DETERMINE MEAN (R M) AND STANDARD DEV IAT ION (STDEV) OF NORMAL C D I STR I BUT ION FROM MEAN(RMNIN) AND CONSTANT STANDARD DEV IAT ION C (SD61) OF LOG NORMAL DI STRI BUT ION» CALCULAT IONS BASED ON 1961 DATA C SD61 STANDARD D E V I A T I O N OF INCOMES IN 1961 RM= 0•9 89*A LOG (RMNIN( I Y ! ) S T D E V= 0 o 9 74 *S D6 1 / R MN I N ( I Y ) C ' DETERMINATION OF F A M I L Y INCOME VECTOR (VF IN ) V F I N (1 ) = G A U S ( ( A L O G ( 1 0 0 0« ) - R M ) / S T D E V )-GAUS(-RM/STDEV) DO 70 I=2»100 RI = I V F I N ( I ) =GAUS( ( A L O G ( R I * 1 0 0 0 o ) - RM ) /STDEV) 1 - GAUS( (ALOG( (R I -1» )* 100 0 e ) - RMJ/STDEV) 70 CONTINUE RETURN END // DUP *DELETE POP IN *STORE WS UA POP IN 1 94 // FOR BUYER *ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E BUYER D I M E N S I O N F l ( 8 ) i t J Y E R ( ICO ) COMMON G M X 1 • I G M 1 % G S 2 » G M X 2 * G S C 2 » I G M 2 t G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E S ( f c » 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 * 5 ) » I C T . COMMON G O » A » N Y * A C O N » B C O N * B K » I Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N ( 100) *RMNIN( 1 0 0 ) » E C D E V » G R O T H » 3 I D N { 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) * S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R l » S O L D ( 7 ) #PROP17) t O L O T ( 7 It 60) » P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V ( 7 ) » D E V ( 7 ) t C 0 N ( 7 ) t T O T ( 7 ) >SB I D ( 7 ) » H A P Y ( 7 ) t D IS A T 10 R I G 2 ( 7 ) » T O L O T » F 3 COMMON T H R S H t X L A R G t S M A L L t AK tPRO F t A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) t D L O T S ! 7 ) t 1 A S 1 Z E ( 7 ) *DMAND(7) >XXK ?XXL t X T » X X M t XXP t C 0 N S 3 » C O N S S • K O D E tDA REA COMMON R E V P T t R E V S T » P T X t S A L T X C0MMON A L P H A t B E T A t T H E TA t F I NT »SI NT » MORT11MORT 2 t FMORG COMMON QTOT C T H I S S U B R O U T I N E R E P L A C E S BIDDW AND SALEW C T H I S S E C T I O N R E P L A C E S BIDDW AND C O N V E R T S P O T E N T I A L B U Y E R S TO C 3 I D D E R S BY E X P R E S S I N G GROSS INCOME IN TERMS OF THE MAXIMUM C MORTGAGE I T CAN S E R V I C E C — F 1 * F 2 * F 3 ARE F U N C T I O N S D E T E R M I N I N G THE P R O P O R T I ON OF P E O P L E C I N T E R E S T E D IN B U Y I N G C O T T A G E L O T S * F l IS A F U N C T I O N OF F A M I L Y S I Z C F2 I S A F U N C T I O N OF INCOME* F3 I S THE PROPO T I O N C I N T E R E S T E D IN B U Y I N G G U L F I S L A N D LAND DATA F l / e 8 8 » e 9 8 t 1 « * 1o » 1 e t 1 e * 1 a t I s / F 3 = A / ( 1 « + 1 0 0 * * E X P ( - B K * D ) ) B = 0 « DO 30 1 = 1 * 1 0 0 B I D N ( I ) = O o V F = V F I N ( I ) F A C T = F 3 * F 2 ( I ) SUM=Oo DO 20 J = l » 8 S U M = S U M + P O P ( J ) * F 1 ( J ) * V F * F A C T 20 C O N T I N U E B Y E R ( I ) = S U M B=B+SUM 30 C O N T I N U E C — E L I M I N A T E THOSE WHO HAVE A L R E A D Y BOUGHT L O T S C — PROR I S P R O P O R T I O N R E M A I N I N G I F ( B - T O L O T ) 9 9 * 9 9 * 4 0 4 0 P R O R = l » - T O L O T / B DO 90 1=1*100 K A T = I * F M O R G + . 5 I F ( K A T - i ) 7 2 * 7 5 t 7 5 72 KAT=1 7 5 I F ( K A T - 1 0 0 ) 8 0 » 8 0 t 7 8 78 K A T = 1 0 0 80 B I D N ( K A T ) = B I D N ( K A T ) + B Y E R ( I ) * P R O R 90 C O N T I N U E . 99 C O N T I N U E 9 5 C — T H I S S E C T I O N C A L C U L A T E S THE NUMBER OF LOT S COMING UP FOR R E S A L E C F R S L E ( I ) I S NO. OF D E V E L O P E D L O T S OF R E C R E A T I O N C A T E G O R Y I t FOR C S A L E s S A L ( I ) ARE S A L E P R I C E S * P ( J ) ARE P R O B A B I L I T I E S OF L O T S O F . C OWNERSHIP J COMING FOR S A L E * C R E S A L NO. OF OWNED L O T S OF C A T E G O R Y I t AG E J » COMING UP FOR R E S A L E C OWNED OWNED L O T S OF CA T E G O R Y I» A G E J C SUM SUM OF L O T S OF CA T E G O R Y I FOR S A L E DO 160 1=1*7 S U M = F R S L E ( I ) DO 120 J = l » 6 0 OWNED = 0 L O T ( I » J ) RES A L = O W N E D * P ( J ) SUM=SUM+RESAL OLOT ( 1 » J ) = O W N E D - R E S A L 12 0- C O N T I N U E F R S L E ( I ) = S U M 160 C O N T I N U E RETURN END // DUP • D E L E T E B U Y E R • S T O R E WS UA BUYER // F O R A G I N G • O N E WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E A G I N G COMMON G M X l » I G M l » G S 2 t G M X 2 p G S C 2 t I G M 2 » G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 * 5 ) t S A V E S ( 6 * 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 * 5 ) « 1 C T COMMON GO « A »NY » A C O N * B C O N » B K » I Y COMMON D » P O P ! 8 ) » V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) s >RMNIN t10 0 ) » E C D E V » G R 0 T H • B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) J S A L I ( 7 ) » S A L 2 < 7 ) » A G R 1 » S O L D t 7 ) * P R O P ( 7 ) » O L O T ( 7 1 * 6 0 ) * P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V ( 7 ) » D E V ( 7 ) . C O N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S 3 I D ( 7 ) » H A P Y ( 7 ) » D I S A T * O R I G 2 ( 7 ) » T O L O T » F 3 COMMON T H R S H » X L A R G » S M A L L » AK » P R O F »A V L N D ( 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S ( 7 ) » I A S I Z E ( 7 ) » D M A N D ! 7 ) . X X K » X X L • X T • X X M * XXP » C O N S B » C O N S S » K O D E * D A R E A COMMON R E V P T J R E V S T » P T X I S A L T X COMMON A L P H A • B E T A > T H E T A * F I N T * S I N T » M O R T I » M O R T 2 » F M O R G COMMON G T O T C S U B R O U T I N E A D V A N C E S V A L U E S OF OLOT AND A C C U M U L A T E S T O T A L C — IT A L S O C A L C U L A T E S T O T A L R E V E N U E FROM P R O P E R T Y T A X E S C SUM DEVI I ) » I . E . O L O T ( I . J ) * SUMMED OVER J A G E S C TOLOT O L O T ( I » j ) SUMMED OVER I AND J R E V P T = 0 . T O L O T = 0 . DO 8 0 1 = 1 * 7 SUM=0. O W N E D = O L O T ( 1 * 6 0 ) + O L O T ( 1 * 5 9 ) O L O T ( 1 * 6 0 ) = G W N E D SUM=SUM+OWNED 96 DO 70 K = 2 » 5 9 J=61-K OWNED = O L O T ( I » J - l ) O L O T ( I * J)=OWNED SUM=SUM+QWNED 70 '• CO N T I N U E O L O T ( I t 1 ) = S O L D ( I > SUM=SUM+SOLDI 1) D E V ( I ) = S U M T O L O T = T O L O T + S U M I F ( P T X ) 3 0 > 0 0 J 7 5 C — R E V E N U E ' R E V P T 1 I S C O L L E C T E D E V E R Y YEAR FROM P R O P E R T Y TAX 'PTX' ON C — A L L OWNED L O T S 1 D E V ( I ) ' E V A L U A T E D AT HHE A V E R A G E S E L L I N G P R I C E FOR C — L O T S OF THA T C A T E G O R Y ' S A L l ( I ) ' 7 5 R E V P T = R E V P T + P T X * S A L I ( I ) * S U M 80 C O N T I N U E RETURN END // DUP • D E L E T E A G I N G • S T O R E WS UA A G I N G // FOR MARKT •ONE WORD INTEGERS SUBROUTINE MARKT DIMENSION DESR(7) C 0 M MO N G M X i t I G M1» G S 2 » G M X 2 »G S C 2 t I G M 2 t G S 3 > G S C 3 COMMON SAVE( 6 » 5 ) j S A V E S ( 6 * 5) tSAVEY(6 t> 5 ) » I CT COMMON GO * A * N Y* ACON » £ CON * BK » I Y COMMON D * P O P ( 8 ) »V F I N ( 100) • R MNIN( 10 0 ) *ECDEV» GROTH» B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) »SAL 1 ( 7 ) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 « S O L D ( 7 ) » P R O P ( 7 ) >OLOT(7 1 » 6 0 ) » P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V ( 7 ) *DEV(7) » C O N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S B I D ( 7 } »H A P Y ( 7 ) »DISA T i O R I G 2(7) >TOLOT»F3 COMMON THRSH* XLARG » SMALL *AK » P R O F • A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S ( 7 ) » IAS I ZE ( 7) »DMAND ( 7 ) » XXK. • X XL » XT »XXM» XXP « CONSB »CON SS t KODE . DA REA COMMON R E V P T o R E V S T » P T X o S A L T X COMMON ALPHA * B E T A * THETA*FINT » S I N T • M O R T 1 * M O R T 2 • F M O R G COMMON QTOT DATA D E S R / l e » o 9 5 » « 8 5 » o 7 » » 5 » o 2 5 9 0 < » / C** DESR(I) PROPORTION OF BIDDERS IN CATEGORY ( 1 + 1 ) WHO WOULDCONS IDER C** BUYING LAND IN CATEGORY I I F UNSATISFIED IN THEIR HIGHER CHOICE C SUBROUTINE SELLS LOTS FRSLE TO BIDDERS BIDN C S A L ( I ) = P R 1 C E I N I T I A L L Y ASKED FOR LOTS OF CAT I GORY I C SAL 1(I)=AVERAGE PRICE ACTUALLY PAID C SOLD(I)=NO« SOLD C F R S L E U ) = N O o LOTS OF CATEGOTY 1 FOR SALE C BIDN(KAT)=NC e BIDDERS PREPARED TO PAYS1000*KAT (MAXIMUM OF C SlOOfOOO) C S B I D ( I ) = N O o BIDDERS INITIALLY BIDDING FOR LAND OF QUALITY I AND C ABLE TO OFFER A PRICE GREATER THAN AGR1 97 C AGR1=SALE PRICE FOR UNDEVELOPED LAND. KAG=AGRl/1000.+.5 REVST=Q. DO 1305 1=1.7 SAL2( I)=SAL1( I ) TSBID=Q. SOLD( I)=0 o C NO. OF 3IDDERS FOR EACH RECREATIONAL CATEGORY IS CHANGED BY C PROPORTION DESIRING LAND OF THAT QUALITY IF ( I - l ) 150.150.151 1 5 1 DESIR = DESR( I ) DO 152 J = 1 » 1 Q 0 15 2 B I D N ( J ) = 3 1 D N ( J ) * D E S I R 150 DO 230 J = KAG.100 230 TSBID=TSBID+BIDN(J) S B I D t I ) = T S B I D C — ADD SALES TAX TO I N I T I A L SALE PRICE TO GET TRUE ASKING PRICE S A L ( I ) = S A L ( I ) * ( 1 s + S A L T X ) ASKPR = SAL( I ) C DETERMINE INITIAL PRICE CATEGORY FOR LOTS IN CATEGORY I C FIRST DETERMINE DOLLAR CATEGORY'(K) THAT IS COMPARABLE TO I N I T I A L C SALE PRICE. K=ASKPR/1000. +.5 I F ( K ) 1 1 . 1 1 . 1 2 11 K=l 12 IF(K-IOO)10.10.20 20 K = 100 C — • TOT(I = TOTAL = TOTAL NO. OF BIDDERS FOR LAND OF QUALITY I AND C WITH BIDDING PROCE GREATER THAN I N I T I A L PRICE C JMIN ='MINIMUM FLOOR SALE PRICE BE LOW WHICH LAND WILL NOT BE SOLD 10 TOTAL =0. JMIN = 1 CASH = 0.0 C FIND TOTAL INTERESTED BIDDERS AT THAT PRICE DO 30 J = K.100 30 TOTAL = TOTAL + BIDN( JJ T O T ( I ) = T 0 T A L C COMPARE NO. BIDDERS WITH NO. LOTS TFRSL=FRSLE(I) IF (TOTAL-TFRSL) AO.40.50 C IF TOO FEW BIDDERS. THEY ALL BUY AND PRICE THEN DROPS 40 F R S L E t I ) = T F R S L - T O T A L C PROP IS PROPORTION OF SATISFIED BIDDERS WHO ARE ABLE TO MATCH C INITIAL SALE PRICE PROP(I)=1o SOLD( I)=T OTAL C START REDUCING PRICE UNTIL ALL LOTS SOLD OR PRICE TOO L0W(IE=JM1N) J = K - l IF (J) 101. 101. 134 1 0 1 S A L 1 ( I ) = JMIN*1000 DO 102 J = K » 1 0 0 102 BIDN(J)=0. GO TO 130 134 JM1N = .5*SAL2 ( I ) / 1 0 0 0 . IF(JMIN142.42.45 4 2 JMIN = 1 98 45 I F ( J - J M I N ) I O O * 6 Q » 60 60 T F R S L = F R S L E ( I ) T BI D N = BI D N I J ) I F ( T F R S L - T B I D N ) 70 * 7 0 t 8 0 C I F MORE B I D D E R S THAN L O T S » S E L L A L L L O T S AND GO TO 100 70 "SOLDI I ) = S O L D ( I ) + T F R 5 L B I D N ( J ) = T 8 I D N - T F R S L C A S H = C A S H + T F R S L * J * 1 0 0 0 * F R S L E ( I ) = OoO GO TO 100 C I F MORE L O T S THAN B I D D E R S * S A T I S F Y THOSE B I D D E R S AND REDUCE P R I C E 80 S O L D ( I ) = S O L D ( I J + T B I D N F R S L E ( I ) = T F R S L - T B I DN C A S H = C A S H + T B I D N * J * 1 0 0 0 . B I D N ( J ) = 0 » 0 J a J - l I F ( J > 1 0 0 * 1 0 0 * 45 C I F TOO MANY B I D D E R S * THEY BUY A L L L O T S PRO R A T A (NOT R I C H E S T C B I D D E R S F I R S T ) 50 PROP! I ) = T F R S L / T O T A L S O L D ( I ) = T F R S L F R S L E ( I ) = 0 a 1 0 0 T P R O P = P R O P ( I ) DO 110 J = K t 1 0 0 T B I D N = B I D N ( J ) C TRANS IS NO. TO T R A N S A C T I O N S IN T H I S C A T E G O R Y TRANS = TBIDN-»-TPROP C A S H = C A S H + T R A N S * A S K P R 1 1 0 B I D N ( J ) = T B I D N - T R A N S I F ( S O L D ( I ) ) 1 3 1 * 1 3 1 * 140 C — DEDUCT S A L E S TAX TO G I V E TRUE V A L U E OF LAND 1 4 0 R E V = C A S H * S A L T X / ( l e + S A L T X ) R E V S T - R E V S T+REV C A S H = C A S H - R E V I F ( C A S H ) 1 2 3 * 1 2 9 * 1 2 9 1 2 8 CASH=Oe 12 9 C O N T I N U E S A L K I ) = C A S H / S O L D ( I ) GO TO 130 13 1 S A L K I ) = 1 Q 0 1 * * J M I N C ( l . - H A P Y ) I S THE P R O P O R T I O N OF B I D D E R S WITH B I D D I N G P R I C E G R E A T E R C THAN AGR1 WHO COULD NOT BUY 13 0 H A P Y t I ) = S O L D ( I ) / T S 6 I D 1 3 0 5 C O N T I N U E C I F SOME B I D D E R S FOR 1 S T CA T o P L O T S A RE U N S A T I S F I E D * I N C R E A S E CON UNHAP = 0. DO 135 I = 1*7 C UNHAP IS T H E SUM OF THE P E O P L E WHO WERE U N A B L E TO A C Q U I R E LANK OF C THE Q U A L I T Y THEY D E S I R E D * D I S A T I S THE P R O P O R T I O N OF T H E S E P E O P L E C IN R E L A T I O N TO T H E NO* O R I G I N A L L Y I N T E R E S T E D (= S B I D l l J J o I F ( 1-1) 135 » 135 » 2 0 0 2 0 0 UNHAP = UNHAP + S 8 I D ( 1-1 ) * ( i o - H A P Y ( I - 1 ) ) * ( 1 . - D E S R ( I ) ) 1 3 5 COM I ) =ACOi\*EXP I BCON* ! 1 e - P R O P l I ) ) ) UNHAP = U N H A P + S B I D ( 7 ) * [ 1 * - H A P Y t 7 ) ) D I S A T «= U N H A P / S B I D I 1) DO 3 5 0 1=1*7 A V S P 1 = S A L 1 ( 1 ) • A V S P 2 = S A L 2 ( I ) I F ( A V S P l + e 1 - A V S P 2 ) 3 3 0 * 3 4 0 * 3 4 0 3 3 0 S A L ( I ) = A V S P 1 60 TO 3 5 0 3 4 0 S A L ( I ) = A V S P 1 * ( l . + C 0 N ( I ) * ( ( A V S P 1 - A V S P 2 ) / A V S P 1 + • 0 1 ) ) 3 50 C O N T I N U E RETURN END ' // DUP • D E L E T E MARKT • S T O R E WS UA MARKT // FOR D E V E L •ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E D E V E L COMMON G M X 1 * I G M 1 » G S 2 * GMX2 » G S C 2 » I G M 2 » G S 3 *GSC3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 * 5 ) * S A V E S ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 5 5 ) * I C T COMMON G 0 * A * N Y * A C 0 N * 3 C 0 N » B K » IY COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N < 100) » R M N I N ( 1 0 0 ) • E C D E V 1 G R O T H • b I D N ( 1 0 0 ) * F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) « S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) * P R u P ( 7 ) * U L O T ( 7 1 » 6 Q ) » P ( 6 Q ) » U N D V ( 7 ) » D E V I 7) i C O N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S 3 1 D ( 7 ) » H A P Y t 7 ) » D I S A T * O R I G 2 ( 7 ) * T O L O T * F 3 COMMON TH R S H * X L A R G * S M A L L » AK » P R O F * A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S ( 7 ) * 1 A S I Z E ( 7 ) > DMAND(7) » X X K * XXL * XT « X X M » X X P * CONSB » C G N S S * KODE « D A R E A COMMON R E V P T » R E V S T » P T X » S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » B E T A » TH E T A » F I N T » S I N T * M O R T 1 > M O R T 2 » FMORG COMMON QTQT C — B U Y I N G P R O C E S S - LOOP OVER C A T E G O R I E S 0 I N I T I A L I S E SLUMP COUNTER ISLMP=0 DO 100 I = l i 7 C — C A L C U L A T E R A T E OF P R I C E A P P R E C I A T I O N . AND E X C E S S R A T E e C — M A R K E T ONLY I F R A T E OF A P P R E C I A T I O N E X C E E D S SOME T H R E S H O L D * C — NO - D E T E R M I N E AMOUNT OF LAND A V A I L A B L E AND E F F E C T I V E DEMAND R A T E B s ( S A L 1 ( I ) - S A L 2 ( I ) ) / S A L 1 ( I) R A T E S = R A T E B - T H R S H DMAN D ( I ) = ( S O L D( I ) + 1 e ) • ( 1 a -f- ( e 4 *-R A T E 8 ) ) D M A N D ( I ) = D M A N D ( I ) - F R S L E ( I ) I F ( D M A N D ( I ) - l » ) 2 0 * 2 0 * 3 0 2 0 D M A N D ( I ) = 0 8 GO TO 100 3 0 C O N T I N U E A V L O T = U N D V ( I ) C — C A L C U L A T E R A T E OF A T T A C K OF B I G S P E C U L A T O R S RAB = R A T E B * X LARG+CONS B C — A R E T H E R E ANY SMALL T I M E D E V E L O P E R S I F ( R A T E S ) 4 0 * 5 0 * 5 0 4 0 C O N T I N U E R A S = 0 » B I G ( I ) = 1 * 100 G O T O 60 so • C O N T I N U E : C — C A L C U L A T E R A T E O F A T T A C K O F S M A L L D E V E L O P E R S A N D P R O P O R T I O N O F D E V E L C — W H I C H I S L A R G E S C A L E R A S = R A T E S * S M A L L + C G N S S •• B I G ( I ) = R A B / ( R A 8 + R A S ) 60. C O N T I N U E R A = ( R A S + R A B ) * D M A N D ( I ) * A V L O T A V L N D ( I ) = A V L O T * ( l e + R A / I A V L O T * A K ) ) * * ( - A K ) ) 100 C O N T I N U E 110 R E T U R N E N D / / D U P • D E L E T E D E V E L • S T O R E W S U A D E V E L // FOR SUBDV •ONE WORD INTEGERS SUBROUTINE SUBDV {SZM 1N»EXPR?XXB*2 LOTS) DIMENS ION XXB(7) *ZLOT S(7) COMMON GMX1»IGM1*GS2 • GMX2 »GSC2 »IGM2*GS3 sGSC3 COMMON SAVE(6»5)»SAVES(6*5)»SAVEYl6*5)»ICT COMMON GO*A»NY»ACON»BCON»BK»lY COMMON D » P 0 P ( 8 )* VFIN( 10 0! »RMNIN( 100 ) »ECOEV»GROTH> BIDN(100) »F2 <100) COMMON FRSLE(7)»SAL(7 ) *SAL1t 7) »SAL2 ( 7 )»AGRI*SOLD(7) >PROP(7) tQLOT(7 1*60) *P(60) » UNDV(7) *DEV(7) »CONI 7) »TOT(7)*SBID(7) »HAPY(7) »DISAT»ORIG 2(7)*TOLOT»F3 CO MMO N THRSH * XLARG * SM ALL * AK »PROF »AVLND( 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) * HO L D ( 7 ) »DLOTS ( 7 ) » 1ASIZE17) »DMAND(7) »XXK»XXL»XT»XXM>XXP»CONSB>CQNSS»KODE*DAREA COMMON REVPT»REVST»PTXjSALTX COMMON ALPHA»BETA » THETA *F INT »S I.NT * MORT 1 *MORT 2 • FMORG COMMON QTOT C—SUBDIVISION SUBROUTINE C — INITIALISE XL=(XXL-XT)/10. XP=«6931/(XXP-XXM) DO 300 1=1*7 C — INITIALISE FOR CLASS I WN=DMAND(I) IF (WN - . l ) 150*150*3 3 CONTINUE XB=XXB(I) K = 0 SUMAL=0. XG=AVLND(I) IF (XG) 6*6 i8 6 CONTINUE 7 X G - e l*HOLD(I) HOLD(I)=HOLD(I)-XG B I G ( I )=1 • SUMAL=XG 8 CONTINUE XR=SAL(I) XK=XXK*XR XM = XK/ ( 10**XP*EXP (XP*XXM) ) KJ = 0 10 CONTINUE WS=XG/WN 20 CONTINUE IF (WS-XTJ 100.30*30 30 IF (WS-SZMIN) 100*3 5.35 3 5 CONTINUE C — SZHIN IS A MINIMUM LOT SIZE - POLICY RESTRICTION TREV=WN*XR TCOST*XB*WS*WN+XK*WN* ( l . + XL/J WS-XT )) +XM* I E XP ( XP*WN )-1 • ) TPROF=TREV-TCOST C — EXPR IS MINIMUM ACCEPTABLE PROFIT AS A PROPORTION OF TREV PRMIN=EXPR*TREV IF ( TPRGF-PRMIN) 40 • 50 »50 40 CONTINUE C — INSUFFICIENT PROFIT - REDUCE LOT S I Z E BY TEN PERCENT AND TRY AGAIN 41 WS=*9*WS GO TO 20 50 CONTINUE IF(WM-1.)130*130*43 43 CONTINUE C — DEVELOPMENT PROFITABLE DLOTS(I)=WN AS I ZE(I)=WS ZLOTS(I)=WN*WS X X B ( I ) = X X B ( I ) * ( l . + 2 « * ( Z L O T S ( I ) / U N D V ( I ) ) ) IF ( X X B ( I ) - 1 0 0 0•) 4*5.5 4 CONTINUE XXB( I )=10Q0* 5 CONTINUE IF (K) 70*70*60 60 CONTINUE C — HOLDINGS WERE ADDED - IE USED UP ALL ORIGINAL AVLND(I) UNDV(I)=UNDV(I)-AVLND(I) C — ANY LAND PUT ON THE MARKET FROM HOLDINGS AND THEN NOT USED IS C — RETURNED TO HOLDINGS XSLND=XG-WN*WS IF (XSLND) 63*65*6 5 63 XSLND=0. 6 5 CONTINUE HOLD(I)=H0LD(IJ+XSLND GO TO 300 70 CONTINUE C — WORKED WITH ORIGINAL AVLND(l) ONLY - USED XG OF IT XG=WS*WN UNDV( I ) =UNDV( I)-XG IF ( B I G ( I ) ) 300*300.BO 80 CONTINUE C — THE BIG DEVELOPERS ADD A PROPRTION OF EXCESS LAND TO THEIR HOLDING XS L N D = ( A V L N D ( I ) - X 6 ) * B I G ( I ) 1 ft ? I F ( X S L N D ) 8 5 * 9 0 * 9 0 8 5 XSLND=Oa 90 C O N T I N U E H L D M X - . l * O R I G ( I ) I F ( H Q L D ( I ) - H L D M X ) 9 l i 9 1 i 9 2 9 1 . C O N T I N U E HOLD( I ) =HOLD( I ) + X S L N D U N D V ( I ) = U N D V ( I ) - X S L N D 92 C O N T I N U E GO TO 300 1 0 0 C O N T I N U E I F ( B I G ( I ) ) 1 2 5 * 1 2 5 . 1 1 0 1 1 0 C O N T I N U E C — T H E R E ARE B I G D E V E L O P E R S P R E S E N T - I F LAND I S A V A I L A B L E IN T H E I R C- HOLDINGS I N C R E A S E XG BY 10 P E R C E N T AND TRY A G A I N A D L N D = o l * X G I F t A D L N D - H O L D ( I ) ) 1 2 0 » 1 2 0 * 1 2 5 1 2 0 C O N T I N U E C - - I N C R E A S E P R O P O R T I O N OB IBG D E V E L O P E R S B I G ( I ) = ( B I G ( I ) * X G + A D L N D ) / ( X G + A D L N D ) XG-XG+ADLND HOLD( I ) = H Q L D ( I J - A D L N D S U M A L = S U M A L+A D L N D GO TO 10 12 5 C O N T I N U E C ~ I N S U F F I C I E N T P R O F I T - NO H O L D I N G S L E F T C — . REDUCE NUMBER OF L O T S S U P P L I E D AND RRY A G A I N WN= e9*WN I F (WN-lu) 1 3 0 * 1 3 0 * 1 0 13 0 C O N T I N U E C — I N S U F F I C I E N T P R O F I T - NO H O L D I N G S L E F T - HAVE REDUCED S I Z E AND NUM I F (K) 1 5 0 * 1 5 0 * 1 4 0 1 4 0 C O N T I N U E C — RETURN H O L D I N G S TO H O L D ( I ) - D E C R E A S E P R O P O R T I O N OF B I G D E V E L O P E R S C - - DO NOT S U B D I V I D E B I G ( I ) = ( B I G ( I ) # X G - S U M A L ) / ( X G - S U M A L ) HOLD{ I )=HOLD( I J + S U M A L 15 0 C O N T I N U E D L O T S { I ) = 0 « Z L O T S ( I ) = 0 . A S I Z E ( I ) = 0 « 3 0 0 C O N T I N U E RETURN END // DUP • D E L E T E SUBDV • S T O R E WS UA SUBDV // FOR PRVCY •ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E PRVCY D I M E N S I O N T E M P ( 7 ) » C L A S S < 7 ) COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 » GS 2 » G M X 2 » G S C 2 » I G M 2 » G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V ES ! 6 » 5 1 » S A V E Y ( 6 »5 ) ».ICT COMMON GO » A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K » I Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 J * V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) »RMNI.N( 1 0 0 ) » EC DEV *GR OT H t B I DN I 10 0 ) . F 2 U 0 0 ) , COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) fSAL!7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) , S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 » S 0 L D ( 7 ) » P R O P ( 7 ) » O L O T ( 7 1*60) » P ( S 0 ) » U N - D V ( 7 ) * D E V ( 7 ) >CQN(7) * T O T ( 7 ) »SdIu>< 7) » H A P Y ( 7) » D I S A T » 0 K 1 G 2 ( 7 ) *TOLOT * F 3 COMMON T H R S H » X L A R G » S M A L L » A K » P R O F » A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) * H O L D ( 7 ) * D L O T S ( 7 J * I A S I Z E ( 7 ! » D M A N D ( 7 ) ,XXK, .XXL » X T » X X M » X X P t C O N S b ' » C O N S S • KODE »DA RE A COMMON R £ V P . T » R E V S T » P T X » S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » B E T A » T H E T A » F I N T » S I N T • M O R T 1 » M O R T 2 » FMORG COMMON QTOT D A T A C L A S S / 5 o » 1 . 7 > o 4 3 * e l 9 » 6 i l » » 0 7 » 0 B / C * « I N I T I A L I S E G L O S S TO Z E R O Q L O S S = 0 » Q A D = 0 » C — I N I T I A L I S E TENPORARY ARRAY TO ZERO DO 10 I = l » 7 T E M P ( I ) = 0 e 10 C O N T I N U E C — LOOP OVER LAND C L A S S E S - DO C A L C U L A T I O N S ONLY I F S U B D I V I S I O N OCCURRED DO 80 1 = 1•7 X N U M = D L O T S ( I ) I F ( X N U M - c O l ) 8 0 > 8 0 » 2 0 20 C O N T I N U E C * * C A L C U L A T E Q U A L T Y A R E A D E V E L O P E D T H I S YEAR K J = 8 - I Q A D = Q A D + K J * A S I Z E ( I ) * D L O T S ( I ) A V S I Z = A S I Z E ( I ) C — LOOP OVER S I Z E C L A S S E S FROM S M A L L E S T S I Z E UPWARDS U N T I L CORRECT DO 4 0 J = i » 6 J J = 8 - J I F ( A V S I Z - C L A S S ( J J ) ) 5 0 * 5 0 * 4 0 40 CONTINUE. C — T C P S I Z E C L A S S - NO CHANGE IN LAND C L A S S TEMPI I ) = T E M P ( 1 ) + X N U M GO TO 80 50 C O N T I N U E C — S I Z E C L A S S J J - D E T E R M I N E R E S U L T A N T LAND C L A S S I I = I + J J - 1 -I F ( I I - 7 ) 6 0 * 6 0 * 5 5 55 11=7 C * * I I I S D E S T I N A T I O N C L A S S NUMBER 60 C O N T I N U E T E M P ( I I ) = T E M P ( I I ) + X N U M C * * C A L C U L A T E Q U A L I T Y A R E A L O S T D R O P = I I ~ I I F ( D R O P ) S O * 60 » 7 0 70 Q L G S = X N U M * A V S I Z * D R O P Q L O S S = Q L O S S + Q L O S 80 C O N T I N U E 104 C** CALCULATE QUALITY AREA REMAINING UNDEVELOPED QAR=0» DO 85 I=l»7 JK=6-I QAR=QAR+JK*UNDV(1 ) 85 -CONTINUE C** QTOT = IMPACT ON QUALITY QTOT=((QAD-QLQSS)/QAD)* IIQAR-QAD)/QAR) IF(QTOT)86*86 .87 86 QTQT=1e 8 7 CONTINUE C — LOOP OVER LAND CLASSES DO 90 I = 1 • 7 DLOTS(I)=TEMP t I ) F R S L E l I ) = F R S L E ( I )+DLOTS( I ) 90 • CONTINUE , ' RETURN END // DUP •DELETE PRVCY •STORE WS UA PRVCY // FOR GRAPH •ONE WORD INTEGERS SUBROUTINE GRAPH (ZLOTS) DIMENSION ZLOTS(7 ) DIMENSION Y P ( 6 ) » Y S ( 6 ) *YVAL(6) COMMON G M X 1 • I G M l » G S 2 * G M X 2 » G S C 2 * I G M 2 * G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON SAVE(6 »5) .SAVES!6.5) »SAVEY(6.5) »ICT COMMON GO • A »NY » A C O N » BOON » BK • I Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) * V F I N ( 100) »RMNIN!100) *ECDEV.GROTH*BIDN(100) »F2(100) COMMON FRS L E ( 7 ) »SALI 7) »SAL1(7) *SAL2(7) *AGR1» SOLD(7 ) tPROP(7) »GLOT(7 1*60) *P(60) *UNDV( 7) *DEV(7) *CON(7) »TOT(7) »S3ID(7 ) »HAPY(7) *DISAT*GRIG 2 ( 7 ) » T O L O T » F 3 COMMON THRSH * XLARG * SMALL * A.K * PROF »A VLND ( 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) »HOLD(7) »DLOTS(7 )•» IAS I ZE ( 7 ) »DMAND ( 7 ) ,XXi<.» XXL » XT • XXM »XXP * CONSB . CONSS • KODE »DAREA CO MHON R E V P T »R EVST» PTX »SALTX COMMON A L P H A , B E T A » T H E T A * F I N T »SI NT »MOR T1 *MORT 2 » FMORG COMMON QTOT C — GRAPHICAL UOTPUT SUBROUTINE - PLOTS ONLY EVERY F I F T H YEAR R Y = I Y DO 40 1=1*5 IF (1-3) 5*40*5 5 CONTINUE C SCALE POINTS TO BE PLOTTED YVAL( I)=SAL1( 1 ) YP(1)=GS3+GSC3*(lo-UNDV( I )/ORIG( I) ) YS( I )=GS2 + GSC2*ZLOTS( I ) . C TEST THAT POINTS ARE NOT OFF SCALE-GMX12=GMX1*2» IF ( YVAL ( I ) -GMX 12) 2 0 * 2 0 * 10 10 YVAL ( I ) = GMX 12 2 0 IF (Y S ( I ) ~ G M X 1 2 ) 4 0 * 4 0 * 3 0 3 0 YS ( I )=GMX12 40 CONTINUE C — SCALE PERCENT BUYERS U N S A T I S F I E D YM=GS3+GSC3*DISAT C * * SCALE IMPACT ON QUAL ITY ( 0 * 7 4 0 0 0 ) YQ=CiTOT*740 0 0 * I F ( Y Q - G M X 1 ) 4 6 * 4 6 * 4 3 45 YQ=GMX1 46 CONTINUE C — IS IT A F I F T H YEAR IF ( I CT-5 ) 5 0 * 6 0 * 6 0 5 0 CONTINUE C — •. I NC RE ME NT COUNTER ICT=ICT+1 GO TO 160 60 ' CONTINUE C PLOT LAND VALUES IF ( I Y-5 ) 6 1 * 6 1 * 6 2 61 L J = 2 GO TO 63 62 LJ--1 63 CONTINUE DO 80 1=1*5 IF (1-3 ) 6 5 * 8 0 * 6 5 6 5 CONTINUE KK=-2 DO 70 J = L J » 5 XPT=IY-6+J CALL FPLOT(KK»XPT* S A V E ( I * J ) ) KK-0 70 CONTINUE CALL FPLOT (-1 * RY » Y VAL( I) ) 80 . CONTINUE C * * PLOT IMPACT ON Q U A L I T Y K.!<=~2 DO- 85 J = L J »5 XPT=IY-6+J CALL F P L O T ( K K t X P T » S A V E Y ( 3 » J ) ) KK = Q CALL P O I N T ( 1 ) 8 5 CONTINUE CALL FPLOT(0»RY*YG) CALL P O I N T ( 1 ) CALL FPLOT(-1»RY»YQJ C PLOT NEW LAND PLACED ON THE MARKET DO 110 1=1*5 IF (1-3 ) 9 0 * 1 1 0 * 9 0 90 CONTINUE KK = -2 DO 100 J = L J * 5 X P T = l Y - 6 + J CALL F P L O T ( K K » X P T » S A V E S ( I » J ) ) KK = 0 106 100 CONTINUE CALL FPLOT (-1iRY»YS( I ) ) 110 CONTINUE C PLOT PERCENT OF LAND DEVELOPED DO 140 1=1*5 IF ( 1-2) 120 *140* 120 120 CONTINUE KK=-2 DO 130 J=LJ*5 XPT=IY-6+J CALL FPLOT ( K K » X P T > S A V E Y ( I > J ) ) K,<=0 130 CONTINUE CALL FPLOT (-1»RY*YP( I ) ) 140 CONTINUE C PLOT PERCENT BUYERS UNSATISFIED , • KK=-2 DO 150 J=LJ*5 XPT=IY-6+J CALL FPLOT(KK*XPT*SAVE(3*J) ) •KK=0 CALL, POINT (0) 150 CONTINUE CALL FPLOT (0 » RY * YM) CALL POINT (0) CALL FPLOT (-1»RY»YM) C RESET COUNTER ICT = 1 160 ' CONTINUE C STORE THIS YEAR'S RESULYS SAVEY(3*ICT)=YQ DO 180 1=1*5 IF (1-3) 170*180*170 170 CONTINUE S A V E Y t I . I C T ) = Y P ( I ) SAVES(I *ICT) = YS(I ) SAV E ( I » I C T ) = Y V A L ( 1 ) 180 CONTINUE SAVE(3 »ICT)= YM RETURN END // DUP •DELETE GRAPH •STORE WS UA GRAPH // FOR GULF1 •IOCS(CARD.1132 PR INTER.PLOTTER) •ONE WORD INTEGERS DIMENSION IYEAR111) COMMON GMX1»IGM1» GS2 »GMX2•GSC2 »IGM2 »GS3 *GSC3 COMMON SAVE(6.5)>SAVES(6.5).SAV EY(6.5) . I CT 107 COMMON G O » A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K » ! Y COMMON D * P O P ( 6 ) . V F I N ( 10 0) .RMNIN I 1 0 0 ) . E C D E V . G R O T H . B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) . F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R 5 L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) . S A L 2 ( 7 ) . A 6 R 1 » S O L D I 7) » P R O P ( 7 ) I O L O T I 7 1.60) > P ( 6 0 ) .UNDVt 7) .DEV< 7) » C O N ( 7 ) » T 0 T ( 7 ) » S B I D 1 7 ) » H A P Y 1 7 ) . D I S A T % OR IG • 2 ( 7 ) . T O L O T . F 3 • COMMON TH R S H * X L A R G • S M A L L >'AK » P R O F »A VLND ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7) > D L O T S ( 7 ) * 1A S I Z E { 7 ) »D M A N D ( 7 1 » X X K » X X L • X T • X X M» XXP » C Q N S B » C G N S S » KODE »DA REA COMMON R E V P T . RE V S T . P T X » S A L T X COMMON' A L P H A . B E T A • T H E T A i F I N T > S I N T > M O R T 1 » M 0 R T 2 » F M O R G COMMON QTOT DATA I Y E A R / 1 9 0 0 » 1 9 1 0 • 1920 » 193 0 » 1 9 4 0 . 19 50» 196 0» 1 9 7 0 » 1 9 8 0 » 19 9 0 . 2 0 0 0/ READ ( 2 * 1 0 1 ) O R I G READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) F R S L E C — READ A S I Z E READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) A S I Z E 1 0 1 FORMAT ( S F 1 0 . 0 ) READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) S A L 1 READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) S A L 2 WRITE ( 3 . 1 0 2 ) 1 0 2 FORMAT ( ' 1 I N I T I A L S A L E P R I C E S ' ) WRITE ( 3 . 1 0 1 ) S A L 1 READ ( 2 . 1 0 ) A . A C C N . B C O N . A K . N Y 10 FORMAT ( 4 F 1 0 « 5 » I 1 0 ) WRITE ( 3 . 1 1 ) 11 F O R M A T ( / 5 X j 'A 1 »7X . 1 A C O N 1 .6X. 1 B C C N ' *8X. » A K 1 » 1 0 X » 1 N Y 1 ) WRITE ( 3 . 1 0 ) A . A C O N . B C O N . A K . N Y C — READ D E V E L O P M E N T S U B R O U T I N E P A R A M E T E R S READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) X X K . X X L . X T . X X M » X X P . X L A R G tSMALL.THRSH WRITE ( 3 . 2 1 ) 21 FORMAT ( / 6 X 1 XXK 1 s 9 X . 'XXL' .9X. 'XT' s 9X . 1 XXM 1 . 9 X . 1 XXP" .9X» 1 X L A R G 1 s 17X . 1 SMALL 1 » 7 X . 1 T H R S H ' ) WRITE ( 3 . 2 0 ) XXK * X X L • X T • X X M 9 XXP » X L A R G . S M A L L » T HRSH 20 FORMAT ( 8 F 1 2 . ? ) WRITE ( 3 . 9 0 1 ) 9 0 1 FORMAT (/' H E C T A R E S OF LAND A V A I L A B L E 1 ) WRITE ( 3 . 1 0 1 ) O R I G C GMX2 S C A L E S THE D E V E L O P M E N T GRAPH READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) GMX1.GMX2 IGM1 = G M X l * . 0 0 i + 0 « 5 GS2 - 1•1*GMX1 GSC2 = GMX1---0 o4/GMX2 IGM2 = G M X 2 * 0 « 0 1 + 0 o 5 GS3 = 1 « 6 * 6 M X 1 G S C 3 = 0 » 4 * G M X l RY = 0 C A L L S C A L F ( 1 0 « / 1 0 0 • » 5 o / G M X 1 . - 2 0 • » - G M X 1 / 1 0 o ) C — I F DATA S W I T C H 14 I S ON. THE A X E S ARE NOT P L O T T E D C A L L DATSW ( 1 4 . J K L ) GO TO ( 5 5 . 2 5 ) . J K L 2 5 C A L L FCHAR ( 0 . . 0 o . <> 1 » * 1 5 . 1 * 5 7 ) C A L L F P L O T . l + l » ~ 6 o » G M X 1 / 3 * ) WRITE ( 7 . 1 0 7 ) 1 0 7 FORMAT ( ' P R I C E ( S 1 C 0 0 ) .' » 27 X . ' DE VE LOP MENT ' . 1 7X . ' PER C E N T ' ) C A L L FCHAR ( 0 » » G * . « l » » 1 5 » O o ) C A L L F P L O T ( 0 . - 2 . .-GMX1/15•) WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 0 ) I YEAR 1 1 0 FORMAT ( 1 1 ( I 4 * 6 X ) ) ' Y = - G M X 1 * « 0 0 0 5 C A L L F P L O T ( 0 * - 4 o » Y ) IP = 0 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP 1 1 5 FORMAT ( 1 3 ) Y l = G M X l / 5 e DO 30 J = l i 5 Y=Y+Y1 C A L L F P L O T (0 *-4o .Y ) I P = Y * . 0 0 1 + « 5 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP 3 0 C O N T I N U E Y=GS2 . C A L L F P L O T ( 0 » - 4 9 * Y ) IP = 0 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) I P Y 2 = Y l * o 6 6 6 6 DO 40 J = l » 3 R J = J Y=Y+Y2 C A L L F P L O T ( 0 » - 4 o » Y ) I P = R J * G M X 2 / 3 « + « 5 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP 40 C O N T I N U E Y = GS3 C A L L F P L O T ( 0 * - 4 o »Y ) IP = 0 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP DC 50 J = l * 2 Y=Y+Y1 C A L L F P L O T ( 0 * - 4 o » Y ) I P = I P + 5 0 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP 5 0 C O N T I N U E YMAX2=G52+GSC2*GMX2 Y M A X 3 = 2 o 0 * G M X l C A L L F G R I D ( 0 > 0 « * 0.* 1« , » 1 0 0 ) C A L L F P L O T {2 * 1 0 0 • » G M X 1 ) C A L L F P L O T ( - 1 t 0 d *GMX1 ) . C A L L F G R I D ( 0 » 0 o » G S 2 » 1» * 100 ) C A L L F P L O T (2 >100 « » YMAX2) C A L L F P L O T (-1 * 0•>YMAX2) C A L L F G R I D { 0 » 0 « t G S 3 » 1 . » 1 0 0 ) C A L L F P L O T ( 2 » 1 0 0 » » Y M A X 3 ) C A L L F P L O T (-1» 0•* YMAX3) C A L L F G R I D (3 * 0 » » Y M A X 3 *•0 4* GMX1 * 10 ) C A L L F G R I D { 3 * 0 • » Y M A X 2 » 1 0 0 • * G S C 2 » I G M 2 ) C A L L F G R I D ( 3 » 0 o * G M X 1 » 1 0 0 0 . t IGM1) 55 C A L L F P L O T (0 »Oo » 0« ) C A L L I N I T L C A L L INCOM C A L L L I N K ( G U L F 2 ) END // DUP • D E L E T E G U L F I • S T O R E C I WS UA G U L F 1 • LOC A L * S F 1 0 » I N I T L . I N C O M 1 109 // FOR G U L F 2 • I O C S ( 1 1 3 2 P R I N T E R * T Y P E W R I T E R . K E Y B O A R D ) •ONE WORD I N T E G E R S D I M E N S I O N S U M D L ( 7 ) D I M E N S I O N A V E G I (7 1 D I M E N S I O N X X B ( 7 ) * Z L O T S ( 7 ) " COMMON G M X 1 * I G M 1 » GS2 * G M X 2 » G S C 2 * IGM2 * G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( S . 3 ) * S A V E S ! 6 . 5 ) * S A V E Y ( 6 * 5 ) . I C T CO MMO N GO*A*N Y * A C 0 N * B CO N * B K . I Y COMMON D . P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N ! 10 0) » R M N I N ( 1 0 0 ) * E C D E V » G R O T H * B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) * S A L 1 I 7) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) * A G R 1 . S O L D ( 7 ) » P R O P ( 7 ) . O L O T ( 7 1*60) . P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V l 7 ) . D E V ( 7 ) . C O N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S B I D ( 7 ) »H A P Y ( 7 ) * D I S A T * OR I G 2 ( 7 ) » T O L O T . F 3 COMMON T H R S H * X L A R G . S M A L L • A K . P R O F » A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) * D L O T S ( 7 ) * 1 A S I Z E I 7 ) *DMAND(7) » X X K . X X L * X T » X X M * X X P * C O N S B » C O N S S * K O D E » D A R E A COMMON R E V P T . R E V S T . P T X . S A L T X C0MMON A L P H A . B E T A . T H E T A s F I N T » S I N T * M 0 R T 1 » M O R T 2 . F M O R G COMMON QTQT DATA S U M D L / 7 * O o / C A L L S C A L F ( 1 0 . / 1 0 0 • » 5 • / G M X 1 » 0 • » 0 e J S Z M I N = . l E X P R = . l • DO 8 1 5 1=1*7 X X B ( I ) = 1 0 0 o Z L O T S ( I ) = 0 . 8 1 5 C O N T I N U E C — I N I T I A L I S E V E C T O R OF P R O B A B I L I T Y OF R E S A L E C A L L PROBS C A L L MORTG DO 99 IY = l . N Y I F ( I Y - 6 6 ) 2 * 1 .2 1 P A U S E . ^  2 C O N T I N U E R Y = I Y C I F DATA S W I T C H 14 I S ON* PROGRAM DOES NOT T E S T OTHER S W I T C H E S C A L L DATSW ( 1 4 * J K L ) GO T O ( 2 5 0 » 2 4 0 ) » J K L 2 4 0 C O N T I N U E C * * DATA SWITCH 0 C O N T R O L S A D D I T I O N OF NEW LAND C WHEN DATA S WITCH 0 I S ON J 0 = 1 * WHEN O F F J 0 = 2 C A L L D A T S W ( O . J K L ) GO TO ( 3 0 0 * 6 0 0 ) . J K L 3 0 0 C A L L F P L O T ( 0 * R Y * O o O ) C A L L F P L O T ! 2 » R Y » 2 • 0 * GMX 1 ) C A L L F P L O T ( 1 > R Y . 2 o 0 * G M X 1 ) WRITE ( 1 . 6 0 ) UNDV 110 WRITE ( 3 » 3 0 5 ) IY 3 0 5 FORMAT (/• H E C T A R E S OF NEW LAND E N T E R I N G IN Y E A R ' 9 1 3 / ) WRITE. ( 1 9 3 1 0 ) 3 1 0 FORMAT ('ENTER C A T E G O R Y 9 S P A C E 9 NO 0 OF H E C T A R E S ' ) DO 4 0 0 I = 1 » 7 READ ( 6 . 5 0 0 ) I t A A A A A 5 0 0 FORMAT ( l i t I X 9 F l O o O ) LAND=AAAAA WRITE ( 3 t 8 0 0 ) I t L A N D 80 0 FORMAT ( '0' t I 1 1 I 1 0 ) O R I G ( I ) = O R I G ( I J + L A N D U N D V ( I ) = U N D V ( I J + L A N D 40 0 C O N T I N U E C A L L DATSW ( O t J O ) GO TO ( 3 0 0 9 6 0 0 ) t J O 6 0 0 C O N T I N U E C** T Y P E OF P O P U L A T I O N GROWTH A F T E R 1 9 6 6 C O N T R O L L E D BY DATA S W I T C H 2 C A L L DATSW ( 2 »J K L ) GO TO ( 6 1 0 t 6 2 0 ) » J K L 6 1 0 WRITE ( l t 6 1 5 ) 6 1 5 FORMAT ('ENTER POPNe GROWTH R A T E - oOXX') READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) GROTH 6 1 6 FORMAT ( F 1 0 * 0 ) C A L L F P L O T (-2 » R Y » 0 . ) C A L L P O I N T (1 ) C A L L F P L O T ( + 19 RY * 0 8 ) 6 20 C O N T I N U E C** - T Y P E QF ECONOMIC GROWTH A F T E R 1 9 6 1 C O N T R O L L E D BY DATA SWITCH 3 C A L L DATSW (3 9 J K L ) GO TO ( 6 2 5 t 6 3 0 ) 9 J K L 6 2 5 WRITE ( l t 6 2 7 ) 6 2 7 FORMAT ('ENTER E C O N O M I C GROWTH R A T E - eOXX') . READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) E C D E V C A L L F P L O T (-2.RY.Qo ) C A L L P O I N T (1 ) C A L L F P L O T ( + l * R Y t O o ) 6 3 0 C O N T I N U E C — " DATA S W I T C H 4 C O N T R O L S P R O P O R T I O N OF P E O P L E I N T E R E S T E D IN B U Y I N G C — OPTIMUM INCOME. C — LAND AND OPTIMUM INCOME B R A C K E T . E N T E R MAXIMUM P R O P O R T I O N AND C A L L DATSW ( 4 . J K L ) GO T O ( 6 3 5 . 6 6 0 ) > J K L 6 3 5 WRITE ( 1 . 6 4 0 ) 6 4 0 FORMAT ('ENTER PMAX') READ ( 6 . 6 1 6 ) PMAX WRITE ( 1 . 6 4 5 1 6 4 5 FORMAT ('ENTER O P I N C . WITH D E C I M A L ' ) READ ( 6 . 6 1 6 ) O P I N C DO 6 5 0 1 = 1 » 1 0 0 XX=I F21 I ) = P M A X * E X P ( l - o & 3 6 6 /OP I N C * * 2 ) * ( X X - O P I N C ) * * 2 ) 65 0 C O N T I N U E C A L L F P L O T (-2.RY.0o ) C A L L POINT (3 ) , C A L L F P L O T ( 1.RY.O. ) C A L L DATSW ( 4 . J 4 ) GO TO ( 6 3 5 * 6 6 0 ) * J 4 660 CONTINUE C — DATA SWITCH 5 - MAXIMUM DEMAND CONSTANT A CALL DATSW ( 5 * J K L ) GO TO ( 6 6 5 * 6 7 5 ) * J K L 66 5 WRITE ( 1 * 6 7 0 ) 6 7 0 FORMAT { 'MAX,, PROPORTION OF PEOPLE INTERESTED IN GULF I S . L A N D ' ) READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) A CALL FPLOT (-2 * R Y * 0 . ) CALL POINT (4) CALL FPLOT (1*RY»0« ) 67 5 CONTINUE C — DATA SWITCH 6 CONTROLS PROPERTY TAX AND SALES TAX . CALL DATSW ( 6 * J K L ) GO TO (685 > 6 9 5 ) * J K L 6 8 5 WRITE ( 1 * 6 9 0 ) 690 FORMAT ( ' ENTER PROPERTY TAX RATE 0 . - . 0 5 9 1 ) READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) PTX 6 9 1 CALL PROES CALL MORTG 6 9 2 WRITE ( 1 * 6 9 3 ) 6 9 3 FORMAT ( ' ENTER S A L E S T A X ' ) READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) SALT X CALL FPLOT (-2 »RY »0 « ) CALL POINT (5 ) CALL FPLOT ( 1 » R Y » 0 . ) 69 5 CONTINUE C — DATA SWITCH 8 CONTROLS MORTGAGE OPTIONS CALL DATSW ( 8 * J K L ) GO TO ( 7 3 0 * 7 3 5 ) » J K L 7 3 0 WRITE ( 1 * 7 3 1 ) 731 FORMAT ( ' (ALPHA) (BETA ) (THETA) (A I NT 1 ) (A I NT 2 ) (MORT1 ) (MORT2) 1 ) READ ( 6 * 7 3 2 ) ALPHA *EETA>THETA *FI NT*S INT .AMRT1*AMRT2 73 2 FORMAT ( 7 F 7 . 0 ) MORT1=AMRT1 MORT 2 = AMRT 2 FI NT = F1 N T * . 5 S I N T = S I N T * . 5 CALL MORTG CALL FPLOT ( - 2 * R Y » 0 . ) CALL P O I N T ( A ) CALL FPLOT (1»RY»Q« ) 7 3 5 CONTINUE C — DATA SWITCH 9 CONTROLS SUBDEVELOPMENT OPTIONS CALL DATSW ( 9 * J K L ) GO TO ( 7 4 0 . 7 5 5 ) . J K L 7 4 0 WRITE ( 1 * 7 4 5 ) 7 4 5 FORMAT ( ' (XXK M X X L ) ( XT ) ( XXM M X X P ) ' ) READ ( 6 * 7 3 2 ) XXK .XXL .XT .XXM»XXP CALL FPLOT ( - 2 » R Y . 0 . ) CALL POINT (4) CALL FPLOT ( i . R Y » 0 . ) 7 55 CONTINUE CALL DATSW ( 1 0 . J K L ) GO TO ( 7 6 0 * 7 7 0 ) t J K L 7 6 0 CONTINUE 112 WRITE (1*765) 765 FORMAT I ' (THRSH) (XLARG) (SMALL) (CONSB) (CONSS) » ) READ (6*732) THRSH » X LARG ? SMALL * CONSB * CONSS 770 CONTINUE C — DATA SWITCH 11 - DISPERSION COEFFICIENT OF -VE BINOMIAL CALL DATSW (11»JKL) GO TO ( 7 8 0 * 7 9 0 ) » J K L 760 CONTINUE WRITE (1*785) 78 5 FORMAT ( 'AK ' ) READ .{ 6*616 ) AK 79 0 CONTINUE C — DATA SWITCH 12 - SZMIN AND EXPR CALL DATSW (12* J K L ) GO TO (3 0 1 * 8 1 0 ) « J K L 801 CONTINUE WRITE (1*80 5) 805 FORMAT ( 1 ( S Z M I N ) ( E X P R )') READ (6*73 2) SZMIN*EXPR '810 CONTINUE 2 50 CONTINUE CALL POPIN CALL BUYER CALL MARKT KGDE=1 CALL DEVEL IF (KODE) 11111*22222*11111 11111 CONTINUE CALL SUBDV (SZMIN » EX PR * XXS ? ZLGT S) CALL PRVCY 2 2 222 CONTINUE DO 255 1=1*7 • SUMDH1)=SUMDL( I )+DLOTS( I ) 2 55 CONTINUE CALL AGING CALL GRAPH (ZLOTS) CALL DATSW I 13*JKL) GO TO (24*26) » JKL 24 CONTINUE DO 25 1=1*7 2 5 WRIT E (3.60) AVLND( I ) »SAL( I> »DMAND( I) * AS IZ E t I ) * DLOT SI I) »SAL 1 ( 1 ) * 1H0LD( I ) * X X 2 ( I ) »PROP( I ) .QTOT 2 6 CONTINUE IF ( I Y - 5 * ( I Y / 5 ) ) 99. 30. 99 3 0 WRITE (3.40) IY> TOLOT . D 40 FORMAT (//' YEAR '13.' TOTAL LOTS 1 F 8« 0 * 'REGIONAL POP.'FIO.O/) WRITE (3.15) 15 FORMAT ( / / • NO. DEVEL. ' »3X *'» PERCENT » »3X. ' PERCENT'» 3X »' AVERAGE ' *3X» 1'PERCENT ' » 3X . 1 NEW LOTS' * 6 X » ' U N S O L D ' *3X. 1 LOTS' .5X. 'LOTS' . 3X» 'AVE R A G 2E' »4X. 'AVERAGE•) WRITE (3.16) 16 FORMAT (4X> •LOTS' .6X . 'DEVELOPED BUYERS' .3X» 'PRICE' .5X»'PRICE' •I 9 X 1.'LOTS'«3X» 'FOR SALE 1 .3X« 'SOLD' » 3X » 1 GROSS ' » 6X. 'LOT 1 ) WRITE (3.17) 17 FORMAT ( 2 3 X . ' S A T I S F I E D ' » 1 1 X * ' I N C R E A S E D E V E L O P E D ' » 3 1 X . ' I N C O M E ' » 5 X » l ' S I Z E ' / ) 

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