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Simulation of cottage lot subdivision : a synthesis of social, economic and environmental concerns Chamber, Alan David 1971

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SIMULATION OF C O T T A G E L O T SUBDIVISION: A SYNTHESIS OF SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS by A L A N DAVID CHAMBERS B.S.F.,  U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , M . F . , . Duke University,  1"964  1967  A THESIS S U B M I T T E D IN P A R T I A L F U L F I L M E N T O F THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE  OF  DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Interdisciplinary  Studies  Resource Science  Centre  W e a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g to the required  THE  standard  UNIVERSITY  OF  March,  BRITISH 1971  COLUMBIA  In  presenting  an  advanced  the I  Library  further  for  this  thesis  degree shall  agree  scholarly  at  in partial  fulfilment  o f the requirements  the University  of British  Columbia,  make  that  available  of  this  It  for financial  f o r reference  for extensive  p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d  his representatives.  written  freely  permission  by  thesis  it  by t h e Head  is understood gain  copying  shall  that  of  I  this  n o t be a l l o w e d  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h V a n c o u v e r 8, C a n a d a  Date  23 April 1971  Columbia  or  or publication w i t h o u t my  Alan D. Chambers  Resource Science Centre  thesis  o f my D e p a r t m e n t  copying  that  and study.  permission.  j&R&Rtoagufcxctfc  agree  for  ABSTRACT C o n c e r n w i t h t h e i n a b i l i t y of t r a d i t i o n a l m e a s u r e s e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y l e d to t h i s s e a r c h f o r a n o t h e r the r a p i d l y d e v e l o p i n g G u l f I s l a n d s fied,our  subjective  mathematically ment  of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a .  for cottage lots  to be u s e d i n  The  slides,  on four b a c k g r o u n d s c e n e s .  the n e a r e s t a c c o r d i n g to W e b e r ' s to a m e a s u r e m e n t  law.  of a r e a ,  defined  same  of v a r i o u s n u m -  W h e n s h o w n the  f r o m their own cottage porch, and distance  By transforming nearest  a relationship between  the a b o v e  neighbour  subjective  pre-  subjective  preference  of v a l u e ,  - lot size  relationship  a generalized total cost function  for cottage lots i s b u i l t and then t u n e d w i t h data f r o m the l i t e r a t u r e . the t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n ' b o t h a v e r a g e  and m a r g i n a l cost equations  a n d p l o t t e d f o r l o t s of v a r y i n g s i z e . s i m i l a r i t y between  l o t s of a n y p a r t i c u l a r  A s m i g h t be e x p e c t e d ,  subjective  preference  market price,  for  parcels  579  l o t s i z e , d a t e of s a l e ,  m i g h t be r e f l e c t e d  and other  A n analysis  u n d e r c o n d i t i o n s of v e r y r a p i d d e v e l o p m e n t ,  tional measure  there is  From derived no cost  for  size.  of t h e G u l f I s l a n d s .  size relationship,  are  and development  W i t h t h e c o o p e r a t i o n of t h e P r o v i n c i a l A s s e s s o r Lands,  to  established.  with more traditional measures  apparent  identi-  measures—develop-  s u b j e c t s w e r e f o u n d to r e s p o n d to the n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s  To compare  is  a l l a p p a r e n t l y t a k e n f r o m the  slides and asked w h i c h v i e w they would prefer  f e r e n c e and l o t s i z e is  measure  of v a r i o u s s i z e s ,  w e r e m a n u f a c t u r e d by s u p e r i m p o s i n g images  of n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e s  distance  reflect  price.  set of 3 5 m m c o l o u r  cottage porch,  measure  and c o m p a r e d w i t h the m o r e t r a d i t i o n a l  cost and m a r k e t  A  bers  preference  of v a l u e to  i n the  of v a l u e i s n o t a r e l i a b l e  the  and R e g i s t r a r  data were  collected  of t h i s d a t a s u g g e s t s subjective  market prices.  of  preference  that, - lot  But this t r a d i -  r e f l e c t i o n of s u b j e c t i v e  preference.  I n a n e f f o r t to l e a r n s o m e of the c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h p r e f e r e n c e s c o u l d be s a t i s f i e d ,  a measure  subjective  of the i m p a c t of d e v e l o p m e n t u p o n  e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y is c o n c e i v e d and i n c o r p o r a t e d i n a m a t h e m a t i c a l of the d e v e l o p m e n t of the G u l f I s l a n d s .  W i t h i n the m o d e l , d e v e l o p e r s  d i v i d e l a n d i n r e s p o n s e to d e m a n d f o r c o t t a g e l o t s , a n d the c o s t of p r o d u c i n g the l o t s . p o l i c y interventions is then tested.  model sub-  their desire for profit,  T h e s e n s i t i v i t y of the m o d e l to v a r i o u s  iv TABLE  OF  CONTENTS Page  TITLE PAGE  i  ABSTRACT  ii  T A B L E OF CONTENTS....  iv  LIST OF T A B L E S  vi  LIST OF FIGURES..  vii  LIST O F PLATES...  ix  LIST OF A P P E N D I C E S . . A C K N O W L E D G M E N TS  x xi  INTRODUCTION  1  L O T SIZE AS A M E A S U R E OF E N V I R O N M E N T A L Q U A L I T Y  3  Questioning Methods Response Measurement Response Variability Slide Manufacture Experimental Procedure R e s u l t s and D i s c u s s i o n  3 5 6 8 9 9  P R O D U C T I O N COST VERSUS L O T SIZE  23  M A R K E T V A L U E VERSUS L O T SIZE  31  D a t a C o l l e c t i o n and A n a l y s i s THE G U L F ISLANDS R E C R E A T I O N A L LAND SIMULATOR D e m a n d for Cottage L o t s S u p p l y of C o t t a g e L o t s . . . I n t e r a c t i o n of S u p p l y and D e m a n d Simulation Models..... G r a p h i c a l R e p r e s e n t a t i o n of Q u a l i t y GIRLS Validity Simulation Studies '.  32 39 40 42 47 50 52 55 57  CONCLUSIONS BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDICES  vi LIST OF  TABLES  Table  Page  I  S i g n i f i c a n c e of d a t a a d j u s t m e n t b y the P , Q t r a n s f o r m  13  II  M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n models i n i t i a l l y tested, v a r i a n c e r a t i o s , s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s , a n d c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e lation  15 -1  III  IV  V VI VII  VIII  P a r a m e t e r s A a n d B of the r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l R = A - B D v a r i a n c e r a t i o s , s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s , a n d c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e l a t i o n f o r e a c h of the s c e n e s i n P l a t e 1  .5 N  , 17  A t a b u l a r c o m p a r i s o n of u n a d j u s t e d (E), a d j u s t e d (R), a n d p r e d i c t e d m e a n e v a l u a t i o n s of p i c t u r e s s h o w n i n P l a t e 1  18  Development costs,  27  160 a c r e s u b d i v i s i o n  A n a l y s i s of m a r k e t p r i c e v a r i a t i o n N u m b e r of p a r c e l s ,  average price,  . 35 and p r i c e range by  size class and a s s e s s m e n t year  37  C a l c u l a t i o n of the " q u a l i t y a r e a " i n a s y s t e m at one p o i n t in time  53  vii  LIST OF  FIGURES  Figure 1  Page C o m b i n a t i o n s of b a c k g r o u n d s c e n e , of n e i g h b o u r s r e p r e s e n t e d  2  d i s t a n c e to, and  number  b y p i c t u r e s r e p r o d u c e d i n P l a t e 1.  O b s e r v e d (adjusted) p r e f e r e n c e s  v e r s u s those p r e d i c t e d  10  by  the r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n f o r e a c h s c e n e 3  Subjective preference s c e n e s 1-4,  one  v e r s u s d i s t a n c e to n e a r e s t  Preference  5  D e v e l o p m e n t cost v e r s u s lot size,  6  A v e r a g e and  7  acre  neighbour,  house v i s i b l e  4  160  16  v e r s u s lot size.  19  A l l scenes, 160  one  acre  house v i s i b l e . . .  ZI  subdivision  28  m a r g i n a l development cost v e r s u s lot size,  subdivision  S i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n and  29 a v e r a g e p a r c e l p r i c e by  assessment  year 8  9 10  38  F l o w d i a g r a m of the G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l  Land  Simulator  41  F l o w d i a g r a m of the " S u b d i v i s i o n " p r o c e s s  45  F l o w d i a g r a m of the one  c o m p o n e n t of " E c o l o g i c a l F e e d b a c k "  included in GIRLS 11  G r a p h i c a l o u t p u t of the G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l Simulator,  12  13  > Land  no i n t e r v e n t i o n s  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a r e d u c e d r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h f r o m 1966  60  61  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a r e d u c e d r a t e of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m 1966  15  51  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of an a c c e l e r a t e d r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h f r o m 1966  14  48  62  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a n a c c e l e r a t e d r a t e of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m 1966  63  viii Figure 16  17  18  19  Z0  Page G I R L S o u t p u t s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of z e r o p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m 1966 „  64  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a 10 p e r c e n t s a l e s t a x f r o m 1966  65  G I R L S o u t p u t s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of i n c r e a s e d m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e s f r o m 1966  66  G I R L S o u t p u t s h o w i n g t h e e f f e c t of i n c r e a s e d p r o p e r t y taxes f r o m 1966.  67  G I R L S o u t p u t s h o w i n g t h e e f f e c t of a p o l i c y i m p o s i n g a m i n i m u m lot size  °8  ix LIST O F P L A T E S Plate 1  • Display  of p i c t u r e s u s e d i n the s t u d y  Page 11  X  LIST OF A P P E N D I C E S APPENDIX I  II  III  I  Page  T H E C O N T R I B U T I O N O F B I N O C U L A R VISION TO THE PERCEPTION OF DISTANCE  74  QUESTIONNAIRES USED IN T H E STUDY O F L O T S I Z E AS A M E A S U R E O F E N V I R O N M E N T A L QUALITY  81  A LISTING OF GIRLS  88  xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS T h e w o r k d e s c r i b e d i n t h i s t h e s i s w a s done w i t h s u p p o r t f r o m a F o r d F o u n d a t i o n g r a n t to D r . C . S . H o l l i n g .  I a m v e r y g r a t e f u l to D r . H o l l i n g a n d  t h e F o r d F o u n d a t i o n f o r h a v i n g g i v e n m e the o p p o r t u n i t y to w o r k i n the a b s e n c e of o r t h o d o x b o u n d s .  A n e x c i t i n g m i x of p r o b l e m - o r i e n t e d  students f r o m a s s o r t e d departments,  d i s c i p l i n e d b y the d e m a n d s of s i m u l a t i o n  m o d e l l i n g and l e d by D r . C . S. H o l l i n g and D r . W . W. J e f f r e y , s t i m u l a t i n g a t m o s p h e r e i n w h i c h the study was c o n c e i v e d . t a n c e of K e r s t i W o o l m a n , m i g h t r e m a i n i n the  Janet G u m m e r ,  future.  graduate  and Ian B a n k s ,  p r o v i d e d the  W i t h o u t the its  assis-  completion  INTRODUCTION T h e G u l f I s l a n d s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a l i e i n the m o s t p r o t e c t e d  waters  of the P a c i f i c C o a s t of N o r t h A m e r i c a , a n d i n the m o s t g e n t l e c l i m a t i c r e g i o n of C a n a d a .  T h e i r beauty is widely a c c l a i m e d .  It i s not s u r p r i s i n g ,  therefore,  t h a t t h e s e i s l a n d s a r e e x p e r i e n c i n g a n a c c e l e r a t i n g i n f l u x of s u m m e r a n d p e r manent residents. quently hears environment".  So r a p i d h a s b e e n t h i s d e v e l o p m e n t r e c e n t l y t h a t one f r e -  s t o r i e s of " d e t e r i o r a t i n g q u a l i t y " a n d the g r o w i n g " s u b u r b a n T h e s a m e s t o r y i s h e a r d e l s e w h e r e w i t h r e f e r e n c e to r i c h  a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d s a s w e l l as i d y l l i c h o l i d a y r e g i o n s . U s i n g our society's t r a d i t i o n a l m e a s u r e s b a l l o t box,  of v a l u e , the m a r k e t a n d  no j u s t i f i c a t i o n c a n be f o u n d f o r c l a i m s of l o s t q u a l i t y . O n m o v i n g  f r o m a g r i c u l t u r a l o r e x t e n s i v e r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e to m o r e i n t e n s i v e s u b u r b a n uses,  v a l u e a c r u e s to the l a n d ,  f o r p r i c e s c e r t a i n l y r i s e and p o l i t i c a l c a m -  p a i g n s a r e n e v e r fought on s u c h mundane b a t t l e f i e l d s as " l a n d u s e " .  Govern-  m e n t s s e l d o m m a k e p e r m a n e n t p o l i c y a d j u s t m e n t s to s l o w o r s t o p s u c h s h i f t s i n the u s e of l a n d ,  y e t s t o r i e s of l o s t q u a l i t y c o n t i n u e a n d s e e m i n t u i t i v e l y  correct. The w o r k d e s c r i b e d here was undertaken i n consequence  of the  i n t u i t i o n a n d i s p a r t of a l a r g e r s t u d y of r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d u s e i n the I s l a n d s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a .  above Gulf  T h e a i m of t h e l a r g e r s t u d y w a s to d e v e l o p a  s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l of l a n d m o v i n g f r o m a g r i c u l t u r e a n d f o r e s t r y to m o r e i n t e n s i v e use as s u m m e r cottage s i t e s . study i d e n t i f i e d and l i n k e d p r o c e s s e s developers, changes  In a c h i e v i n g i t s g o a l , t h e  w h i c h d e s c r i b e the s u p p l y of l a n d to  t h e s u b d i v i s i o n of p a r c e l s s u i t a b l e f o r c o t t a g e u s e ,  i n t h e i r r e c r e a t i o n a l q u a l i t y , the d e m a n d f o r t h e m ,  or m a r k e t i n w h i c h supply and demand i n t e r a c t . Recreational  Land Simulator  (GIRLS)  m i m i c s the  I s l a n d s f o r c o t t a g e u s e f r o m 1 9 0 0 to 2 0 0 0 , c e r n i n g f u t u r e r a t e s of t a x a t i o n ,  parent  consequent  a n d an a u c t i o n  The r e s u l t i n g Gulf Islands d e v e l o p m e n t of  the  given certain assumptions  con-  p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h , the d i s t r i -  2  b u t i o n of w e a l t h , briefly,  a n d t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of the I s l a n d s to d e v e l o p e r s .  More  the m o d e l s i m u l a t e s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of a r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e  as  p r i v a t e l y - o w n e d p a r c e l s of l a n d . Within such a distribution system,  a k e y p r o c e s s i s that w h i c h sub-  d i v i d e s the r e s o u r c e i n t o i n d i v i d u a l p a r c e l s .  T h e r e the e n v i r o n m e n t  t h e i m p a c t of e c o n o m i c a l l y e x p r e s s e d s o c i a l d e m a n d s .  receives  It i s m y h y p o t h e s i s  t h a t the d e v e l o p m e n t ( s u b d i v i s i o n ) of a r e c r e a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e  in response  to  e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a l o n e c a n r e s u l t i n the d e t e r i o r a t i o n of t h a t e n v i r o n m e n t . The following objectives true,  w e r e d e s i g n e d f i r s t to t e s t t h a t h y p o t h e s i s ; t h e n ,  if  to p r o v i d e e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t e d m a t h e m a t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n s w h i c h c o u l d  b e u s e d to b u i l d the s u b d i v i s i o n a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l c h a n g e p r o c e s s e s  in GIRLS.  T h i s s t u d y t h e r e f o r e b r i n g s i n t o b e i n g a m a j o r p o r t i o n of G I R L S , a n d r e p r e s e n t s p a r t of m y c o n t r i b u t i o n to the d e v e l o p m e n t of t h a t s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . The objectives 1.  of t h i s s t u d y w e r e :  T o i d e n t i f y s o m e v i s u a l l y p e r c e i v a b l e m e a s u r e of the i n t e n s i t y of d e v e l o p m e n t of t h e e n v i r o n m e n t i n q u e s t i o n .  2.  T o i d e n t i f y s o m e u n c o n s t r a i n e d m e a s u r e of p r e f e r e n c e  for that  environment. 3.  4.  T o q u a n t i t a t i v e l y r e l a t e i n t e n s i t y of d e v e l o p m e n t to: (a)  the a b o v e u n c o n s t r a i n e d m e a s u r e  (b)  market value;  (c)  development  of  preference;  and, cost.  T o e x p r e s s the a b o v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m ,  then  l i n k e q u a t i o n s i n a m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l of r e c r e a t i o n a l Land u s e (GIRLS). 5.  T o s i m u l a t e d e v e l o p m e n t of the I s l a n d s f o r c o t t a g e r s  from  1900 to 2000 u n d e r a v a r i e t y of s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d c o n d i t i o n s i n a n a t t e m p t to l e a r n s o m e of the c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h m a r k e t values reflect subjective  preferences.  3  L O T SIZE AS A M E A S U R E OF E N V I R O N M E N T A L To many people,  QUALITY  there is a cause and effect r e l a t i o n s h i p between  change i n h u m a n population density and changed e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y .  To  p u r s u e e m p i r i c a l v e r i f i c a t i o n of t h a t r e l a t i o n s h i p one m u s t f i r s t s p e c i f y the q u a l i t a t i v e a t t r i b u t e u n d e r s t u d y a n d the a r e a l e x t e n t of d e n s i t y , measurements.  H e r e q u a l i t y i s d e f i n e d as a n a g g r e g a t e of p r e f e r e n c e s  collectively beyond analysis. a v a i l a b i l i t y of s o l i t u d e , a rather  hence quality  O n e d i m e n s i o n of the a g g r e g a t e ,  p r i v a c y o r the  m a y be v i e w e d a s a f u n c t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y o v e r  small area. Traditional population density measurements  n u m b e r of i n d i v i d u a l s p e r u n i t a r e a of l a n d s u r f a c e . i n the s t u d y of h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n s i s the i n v e r s e , individual,  family,  or other s o c i a l unit.  are e x p r e s s e d Much more  convenient  o r u n i t s of l a n d a r e a  S u c h an e x p r e s s i o n h a s  a p p l i c a t i o n i n the p l a n n i n g of c o m m u n i t i e s ,  as the  per  practical  and h i s t o r i c a l data c o n c e r n i n g the  s i z e of i n d i v i d u a l p a r c e l s of l a n d (and c h a n g e s i n m u n i c i p a l b o u n d a r i e s ) a v a i l a b l e f o r the p a s t c e n t u r y o r m o r e . of t h i s s t u d y , attribute,  In the o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l  the f a m i l y i s t h e p e r t i n e n t s o c i a l u n i t ,  a n d l o t s i z e the a p p l i c a b l e m e a s u r e  are  context  s o l i t u d e the q u a l i t a t i v e  of p o p u l a t i o n d i s p e r s i o n .  Questioning Methods T o s i m p l y a s k p e o p l e w h a t i n t e n s i t y of d e v e l o p m e n t , t i o n of f a m i l i e s , little sense.  spatial d i s t r i b u -  or lot s i z e they w o u l d p r e f e r i n a g i v e n e n v i r o n m e n t ,  T o a s k t h e m to g r a p h i c a l l y r e l a t e t h e c h a n g e i n t h e i r  makes  preference  w i t h changing lot size s e e m s more r i d i c u l o u s .  E v e n if respondents'  s t a n d i n g of s p a t i a l m e a s u r e m e n t  the m e n t a l i m a g e s u p o n w h i c h  were detailed,  answers were based must certainly differ reply.  Two key p r o b l e m s were therefore:  as w o u l d the u n i t s of v a l u e u s e d to ( 1 ) the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of  m e t h o d of m e a s u r i n g a n u n c o n s t r a i n e d s u b j e c t i v e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of l o t s i z e .  under-  The latter r e c e i v e s  response;  some  a n d ( 2 ) the v i s u a l  attention f i r s t .  T h e v i s u a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of d i f f e r e n t l o t s i z e s f o r s u b j e c t i v e  evalua-  t i o n r e q u i r e s s o m e u n m i s t a k a b l e a r e a l i n d e x a n d a h i g h d e g r e e of s p a t i a l reality.  A l l o t h e r a s p e c t s of t h e e n v i r o n m e n t s h o u l d be h e l d  Accordingly, 1.  three p o s s i b i l i t i e s were  constant.  apparent.  A f i e l d s i t u a t i o n w h e r e o b s e r v e r s w e r e a s k e d to e v a l u a t e  actual  lots. 2.  A three-dimensional model.  3.  Photographs.  The f i r s t alternative,  ideal in many respects,  ment u n i f o r m in characteristics hibitively expensive.  o t h e r t h a n l o t s i z e a n d i t s u s e w o u l d be p r o -  A l t h o u g h the r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s b y  photographs seems questionable, with greater  w o u l d not p r o v i d e an e n v i r o n -  t h e y c a n m i m i c the r e m a i n i n g e n v i r o n m e n t  r e a l i s m than can t h r e e - d i m e n s i o n a l m o d e l s .  If,  therefore,  a  t w o - d i m e n s i o n a l photograph can adequately represent different lot sizes,  that  presentation m e d i u m would seem best. T h e c h o i c e of s i g n s b y w h i c h to i n d i c a t e v a r i o u s l o t s i z e s w a s l i m i t e d to a f e n c e o r a n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e . of p r i v a c y a v a i l a b l e ,  S i n c e l o t s i z e i s u s e d h e r e as a  a f e n c e w o u l d be i n a d e q u a t e ,  for although property  b o u n d a r i e s c a n be t h u s d e f i n e d , the p r o x i m i t y of a n e i g h b o u r c a n n o t . d i s t a n c e to a n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e w a s t h e r e f o r e i n d i c a t o r of s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n , h e n c e l o t s i z e .  measure  The  c o n s i d e r e d the b e s t a v a i l a b l e But can such distances  be  revealed in photographs? D i s t a n c e p e r c e p t i o n i s d e p e n d e n t on m o n o c u l a r a s w e l l a s b i n o c u l a r vision (Gibson,  1958).  I n d e e d , b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n d o m i n a t e s the j u d g m e n t of  d i s t a n c e s l e s s t h a n 10 m e t e r s f r o m a n o b s e r v e r range, others)  ( A p p e n d i x I).  m o n o c u l a r c u e s (the s i z e of f a m i l i a r o b j e c t s ,  B e y o n d that  texture gradients,  s u b j u g a t e d i s t a n c e j u d g m e n t s ( A p p e n d i x I; H o l o w a y a n d B o r i n g ,  G i b s o n , 1958;  B e r r y , 1948).  and 1941;  S o l o n g as the d i s t a n c e to a n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e  5  is  not l e s s t h a n 10 m e t e r s ,  therefore,  ceived by monocular cues alone.  that d i s t a n c e  In a photograph,  that n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e w o u l d be r e p r e s e n t e d of the b u i l d i n g ' s i m a g e . v e r as a change  Such a change  t h r o u g h the u s e of r e a r the m o s t a c c e p t a b l e  Response  cues for flatness  projection.  1968; Lacey,  (Fines,  1 9 6 5 ; A p p e n d i x I),  (Schlosberg,  1941)were  obserparti-  avoided  chosen  as  sizes.  environments for evaluation is  et a l . ,  extremely diverse.  architectural literature,  T h e y v a r y f r o m the  methods  measured,  semantic  differential  1 9 6 9 ) c o m m o n i n the  through various psychophysical techniques  1951),  to the e n d o c r i n o l o g i s t s ' m e a s u r e m e n t  (Levi,  1965).  Of these methods,  s e e m most appropriate for this  those study.  s t i m u l i and p s y c h o l o g i c a l response  The quantitative attributes  are  of c a t e c h o l a m i n e  excretion  found i n the p s y c h o p h y s i c a l There,  (Stevens,  measurements  literature  of p h y s i c a l  are quantitative and related by a 1 9 6 5 ; Stevens,  documented l a w ( E k m a n and Sjoberg,  logical laws,  (Hermann,  Such  or evaluations are  1 9 6 6 ; O s g o o d , 1 9 5 2 ; Sanoff,  and Peckham,  m o d e l l i n g and,  1 9 6 5 ; Sanoff, 1 9 6 9 ;  a standard tool for investigating environmental  The methods by w h i c h r e s p o n s e s are  1963; Levi,  (Jacobs and Way, 1969)techniques.  s e e m d e s t i n e d to b e c o m e  (Berlyne  contraction  N e i t h e r is their m o d i f i c a t i o n by r e - t o u c h i n g  1 9 6 8 ) or montage  however,  (Schiff,  a l t e r n a t i v e f o r t h e d i s p l a y of d i f f e r e n t l o t  1969).  et a L ,  values.  b y the e x p a n s i o n or  to  Measurement  c e r t a i n l y not n e w  et a l . ,  i n the d i s t a n c e  Photographs were therefore  T h e u s e of p h o t o g r a p h s to p r e s e n t  Shafer,  changes  per-  w o u l d be p e r c e i v e d by a h u m a n  i n the d i s t a n c e to the h o u s e  c u l a r l y if g l a r e and other  c a n be c o r r e c t l y  a necessary  I960;  associated  1966).  Treisman,  requirement for  mathematical  i f d a t a c o l l e c t e d w e r e f o u n d to c o n f o r m to e s t a b l i s h e d  the d a n g e r s  well-  with disciplinary trespass  psycho-  would  be  minimized.  Experimentally, range  of i n t e n s i t i e s  psychophysical investigators  of s o m e  involuntary responses  stimulus.  expose  D u r i n g the e x p o s u r e ,  observers  to  observers'  c a n be r e c o r d e d on a n e l e c t r o c a r d i o g r a p h ,  electro-  a  6  encephalograph,  or s i m i l a r d e v i c e .  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , o b s e r v e r s m a y be a s k e d  to r e s p o n d v o l u n t a r i l y b y a s s i g n i n g to e a c h s t i m u l u s l e v e l p r e s e n t e d p o s i t i o n on a r e s p o n s e c o n t i n u u m p r o v i d e d b y the i n v e s t i g a t o r .  some  Response  c o n t i n u a u s e d v a r y f r o m b r i g h t n e s s of l i g h t , l o u d n e s s of s o u n d , o r f o r c e of handgrip,  to a r a n g e of n u m b e r s ( S t e v e n s , I 9 6 0 ) .  B e c a u s e the b e s t  measures  o f s u b j e c t i v e r e s p o n s e do n o t r e q u i r e the o b s e r v e r to m a k e n u m e r i c a l e s t i m a tions (Stevens, I960),  y e t s o m e c o m p a r a t i v e l y s i m p l e s y s t e m b y w h i c h the  o b s e r v e r l e f t a p e r m a n e n t r e c o r d of h i s j u d g m e n t w a s d e s i r a b l e f o r t h i s s t u d y , o b s e r v e r s w e r e a s k e d to r e c o r d t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e f o r e a c h s t i m u l u s p r e s e n t e d b y m a r k i n g l e v e l s i n c o l u m n s of " p r e f e r e n c e "  ( A p p e n d i x II).  In t h i s w a y the  u s e o f e l a b o r a t e a p p a r a t u s a n d the i n a c c u r a c i e s of n u m e r i c a l e s t i m a t i o n s were avoided, while s i m p l i c i t y was p r e s e r v e d . Response  Variability  I n u n d e r t a k i n g a s t u d y s u c h as t h i s ,  one i s c o n s t a n t l y p l a g u e d b y  n o t i o n s of i n d i v i d u a l i t y , t h a t p e o p l e , u n l i k e o t h e r a n i m a l s ,  do n o t r e s p o n d  p r e d i c t a b l y to the s a m e s t i m u l u s on d i f f e r e n t o c c a s i o n s and t h a t c u l t u r a l diversity implies response d i s s i m i l a r i t i e s .  If the f e a r p r o m o t e s h e s i t a t i o n ,  i t a l s o e m b o l d e n s t h e i n v e s t i g a t o r s i n c e g r e a t v a r i a t i o n i n r e s u l t s c a n be a t t r i b u t e d t o d i v e r s i t y i n the e x p e r i m e n t a l o r g a n i s m a n d s h o d d y t e c h n i q u e thus d i s g u i s e d .  In e i t h e r e v e n t ,  when significant response v a r i a t i o n is  expected between population strata,  t h o s e s t r a t a s h o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d a n d  m o n i t o r e d as d a t a c o l l e c t i o n p r o c e e d s . C o n s i d e r i n g the s t r a t a l i k e l y to c o r r e s p o n d w i t h r e s p o n s e t h e e x t e n t of c r o w d i n g i n c h i l d h o o d a n d p r e s e n t h o m e s i t u a t i o n s immediate importance.  differences, assume  P e o p l e r e a r e d or l i v i n g i n an e x t r e m e l y l a r g e c i t y  m a y f e e l i l l at e a s e w i t h o u t the k n o w l e d g e t h a t o t h e r s a r e n e a r o r , m a y have grown m i s a n t h r o p i c .  S i m i l a r s p e c u l a t i o n c a n be m a d e w i t h  to o t h e r c h i l d h o o d and p r e s e n t h o m e e n v i r o n s . which respondents were reared,  conversely, respect  T h e s i z e of c o m m u n i t y i n  a n d the s i z e of c o m m u n i t y i n w h i c h t h e y l i v e ,  a r e t h e r e f o r e i m p o r t a n t c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s of t h e p o p u l a t i o n .  7  V a r i a t i o n in r e s p o n d e n t s '  ages might also coincide with d i f f e r e n c e s  r e s p o n s e to the p r o x i m i t y of n e i g h b o u r s , t i m e d u r i n g w h i c h , say, reflects  n o t o n l y b e c a u s e age r e f l e c t s  m i s a n t h r o p y could have developed,  d i f f e r e n t f u n c t i o n a l s t a g e s i n an i n d i v i d u a l ' s l i f e .  responses  but age  the  also  Pre-puberty  m i g h t be d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h o s e of i n d i v i d u a l s of m a t i n g age,  courtship responses  pre-  m i g h t d i f f e r f r o m t h o s e of m a t e d i n d i v i d u a l s , a n d c o u p l e s  w i t h y o u n g m i g h t r e s p o n d d i f f e r e n t l y f r o m c o u p l e s w h o h a v e no c h i l d r e n . sex,  m a r i t a l status,  and f a m i l y size were therefore  i n w h i c h p e r s o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n w a s to be Income,  a traditional correlate  a p a r c e l of l a n d i s to s e r v e , preference  response  with recreational, that context.  a d d e d to the l i s t of  strata  collected. of r e s p o n s e d i f f e r e n c e s ,  and the use  was based.  B e c a u s e the s t u d y i s d i r e c t l y  concerned  r e s p o n d e n t s h a d to be a s k e d to r e s p o n d i n  A t the s a m e t i m e i t w o u l d be i n t e r e s t i n g to t e s t f o r  preference  functions  homesites  but p e r m a n e n t r e s i d e n c e s .  i f t h e p r o p e r t i e s w e r e to be u s e d n o t a s  tioned by c u r r e n t cottage o w n e r s h i p ,  Lastly,  responses  different  summer  m i g h t be c o n d i -  o r b y l a c k of i n t e r e s t i n o w n i n g a s u m m e r  cottage.  These three factors,  therefore  a d d e d to the s i x p r e v i o u s l y d e r i v e d to f o r m t h e b u i l d i n g b l o c k s  income,  use,  and cottage o w n e r s h i p ,  f r o m w h i c h the p e r s o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n q u e s t i o n n a i r e s  were built.  of s a m p l i n g p o i n t s w i t h i n t h e s e n i n e s t r a t a w a s p u r e l y s u b j e c t i v e  size),  The  spacing  and r e s u l t e d  m i g h t be c o r r e l a t e d to the p o p u l a t i o n s t r a t a d i s -  i t m i g h t be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h q u a l i t i e s o t h e r t h a n p r i v a c y (lot  h e n c e the q u e s t i o n s :  (1) w h a t a d d i t i o n a l q u a n t i f i a b l e p a r a m e t e r s  be c o n s i d e r e d p a r t of the a s s e m b l a g e w h i c h c o n s t i t u t e s a n d (2) w h i c h of t h e s e ,  if a n y ,  can  environmental quality,  s h o u l d be i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y ,  of w h i c h i s to i s o l a t e a n d d e s c r i b e v a r i a t i o n i n p r e f e r e n c e alone?  were  d i s p l a y e d i n A p p e n d i x II.  J u s t as r e s p o n s e c u s s e d above,  Age,  would s e e m i m p o r t a n t c o n d i t i o n s upon w h i c h a  or cottage use,  i n the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s  in  the  objective  due to l o t s i z e  8  Two such measures to w a t e r .  a r e the s l o p e of a p a r c e l of l a n d a n d i t s p r o x i m i t y  T h e f o r m e r p e r h a p s b e c a u s e i t r e f l e c t s the o p p o r t u n i t y to v i e w  o n e ' s s u r r o u n d i n g s , the d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b u i l d i n g , w i t h w h i c h the l a n d m a y be t i l l e d ;  o r the e a s e  the l a t t e r b e c a u s e i t r e f l e c t s o p p o r t u n i t y  f o r w a t e r - o r i e n t e d r e c r e a t i o n a n d / o r food gathering a c t i v i t i e s .  Indeed,  s l o p e a l o n e h a s b e e n f o u n d to be a f a i r l y r e l i a b l e p r e d i c t o r of o n - s i t e j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s of w a t e r f r o n t p r o p e r t y ( C h a m b e r s , A n o t h e r m e a s u r e or group of m e a s u r e s  1969).  of q u a l i t y i n v o l v e s v e g e t a t i o n ,  n o t o n l y as i t r e l a t e s to s h e l t e r f r o m the e l e m e n t s , beauty,  sub-  a v a i l a b l e food, or p a s t o r a l  b u t a l s o as a p u r v e y o r of p r i v a c y ( D a r l i n g , 1 9 5 1 ) .  Accordingly, a  v e g e t a t i o n s c r e e n m i g h t be a n a p p r o p r i a t e v e g e t a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c to u s e here.  Within GIRLS, however,  slope,  d i s t a n c e to w a t e r ,  and v e g e t a t i o n  characteristics  a r e u s e d to d e t e r m i n e i n i t i a l l a n d q u a l i t i e s a n d a r e n o t c o n -  sidered here.  The qualitative, features  (1)  the d i s t a n c e to,  studied were,  therefore,  a n d (2) n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e s .  r e d u c e d to  L o t size is a  f u n c t i o n of the f i r s t . Slide Manufacture To maintain continuity between pictures,  a standard visual reference  has b e e n found u s e f u l i n s i m i l a r studies (Jacobs and Way,  1969).  The appro-  p r i a t e s t a n d a r d i n this case was a cottage p r o c h f r o m w h i c h a l l p i c t u r e s a p p e a r e d to be t a k e n . p h o t o g r a p h a n 8x10  T h e s l i d e m a n u f a c t u r i n g p r o c e d u r e e m p l o y e d w a s to  i n c h c o l o u r p r i n t of s o m e b a s i c l a n d s c a p e u p o n w h i c h the  cottage p r o c h f o r e g r o u n d and n e i g h b o u r i n g cottage i m a g e s had been B a s i c scenes,  w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of one,  arranged.  w e r e c h o s e n to m a x i m i z e the p o s s i -  b i l i t y of s u p e r i m p o s i n g b u i l d i n g i m a g e s at v a r i o u s d i s t a n c e s .  Scene four was  s e l e c t e d b e c a u s e it r e p r e s e n t e d w a t e r f r o n t p r o p e r t y . N e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e s t e s t e d f e l l i n the r a n g e f r o m 50 to 500 f e e t . ;  The l o w e r l i m i t was chosen  as a r e s u l t of the i n v e s t i g a t i o n r e p o r t e d i n  A p p e n d i x I, t h e u p p e r b y s u b j e c t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s ,  a n d the k n o w l e d g e t h a t  9 s u c h n e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e s w o u l d r e q u i r e l o t s i z e s of a b o u t 5 a c r e s . W i t h i n that range,  d i s t a n c e s c h o s e n w e r e 50,  90,  124,  180,  300,  a n d 500 f e e t .  B e c a u s e a l l s e m b l a n c e of r e a l i t y w a s l o s t i f m o r e t h a n f i v e h o u s e s w e r e i n cluded,  the n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s r a n g e d f r o m z e r o to f i v e .  W i t h i n the c o n -  s t r a i n t s i m p o s e d by b a s i c s c e n e s and p h o t o g r a p h i c t e c h n i q u e ,  scenes,  d i s t a n c e s a n d n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s w e r e c o m b i n e d as s h o w n i n F i g u r e 1 to p r o d u c e the p i c t u r e set d i s p l a y e d i n P l a t e 1. Experimental Procedure A u n i v e r s i t y " O p e n H o u s e " p r o v i d e d a n e x c e l l e n t o p p o r t u n i t y to o b t a i n r e s p o n s e s f r o m a l a r g e n u m b e r of p e o p l e f r o m a r a n g e of a g e , other population strata,  i n c o m e and  p r o v i d e d the p r o c e d u r e e m p l o y e d c o u l d u t i l i z e a c o n -  t i n u o u s f l o w of r e s p o n d e n t s .  The f o l l o w i n g r a n d o m i z e d s p l i t - p l o t d e s i g n was  therefore employed. F o u r p i c t u r e s w e r e s e l e c t e d r a n d o m l y f r o m w i t h i n e a c h of t w o s y s t e m a t i c a l l y s e l e c t e d s c e n e s ( P l a t e 1).  T h e s e t w o g r o u p s of f o u r p i c t u r e s  each were d i s p l a y e d on a r e a r projection screen, asked,  and t h i r t y r e s p o n d e n t s  t h r o u g h q u e s t i o n n a i r e s ( A p p e n d i x II) to g r a d e the p i c t u r e s a c c o r d i n g  to t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e .  A f t e r t h e s e t h i r t y q u e s t i o n n a i r e s h a d b e e n r e t u r n e d , the  p r o c e d u r e w a s r e p e a t e d u s i n g a n o t h e r t w o g r o u p s of f o u r r a n d o m l y s e l e c t e d pictures.  B e c a u s e a w i d e r r a n g e of n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e s a n d n u m b e r s w a s  a v a i l a b l e i n s c e n e s 1 a n d 2, t h e s e w e r e s a m p l e d t w i c e a s i n t e n s i v e l y a s  were  s c e n e s 3 and 4. R e s u l t s and D i s c u s s i o n O f the 720 q u e s t i o n n a i r e s d i s t r i b u t e d , 681, r e t u r n e d and usable.  Preferences  ference column heights,  o r 94 p e r c e n t ,  were  w e r e m e a s u r e d i n h u n d r e d t h s of the p r e -  a n d a l l i n f o r m a t i o n c o d e d on c o m p u t e r c a r d s .  Pre-  l i m i n a r y m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n r e v e a l e d t h e b u l k of the v a r i a b i l i t y to be  asso-  c i a t e d w i t h the d i s t a n c e t o ,  a n d n u m b e r of n e i g h b o u r s,  the b a c k g r o u n d s c e n e ,  10  NUMBER 0  1  2  3  4  OF N E I G H B O U R S 5  50  OC ID  0  90  ©  124  e  ©  90  CQ  300  300  (3  500  500  >500  >500  Ul  3  4  5  <5  ©  ©  4  5  124 180  I  2  50  180  o  1  ©  SCENE 1  HI  ©  SCENE 2  OC < Lil Z  LU  O  z < C/5  0  1  2  3  4  5  0  50  50  90  90  124  124  180  180  300  9  300  500  ©  500  >500  1.  2  3  0  >500  9  SCENE 4  SCENE 3  Figure  ©  1  Combinations  of scene,  distance  to, a n d n u m b e r o f n e i g h b o u r s  r e p r e s e n t e d by pictures r e p r o d u c e d i n Plate 1.  Plate 1  S C E N E S 1 to 4 (LEFT TO RIGHT) WITH PORCH AND NEIGHBOURING HOUSE(S) SUPERIMPOSED  12  and picture g r o u p .  T h e r e w a s no i n d i c a t i o n t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n  of the r e s p o n s e v a r i a t i o n w a s a s s o c i a t e d income,  w i t h age,  o r a n y of t h e " p e o p l e " v a r i a b l e s .  response  differences  status,  variation in  was v e r y l o w and  in respondents.  did occur between occurrences  T h a t i s , the p r e f e r e n c e  marital  T h a t i s to s a y ,  to a s p e c i f i c s t i m u l u s on a g i v e n o c c u r r e n c e  a p p a r e n t l y not the r e s u l t of d i f f e r e n c e s response  sex,  However,  significant  of a s p e c i f i c s t i m u l u s .  r a t i n g g i v e n a p a r t i c u l a r p i c t u r e v a r i e d w i t h the  g r o u p of f o u r p i c t u r e s w i t h w h i c h i t w a s s h o w n .  Initial efforts were  d i r e c t e d t o w a r d a n e x p l a n a t i o n of t h i s s o u r c e of v a r i a t i o n ,  so t h a t  therefore responses  m i g h t be a d j u s t e d a n d p o o l e d f o r the a n a l y s i s of v a r i a b i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d neighbour number,  distance,  and b a c k g r o u n d scene.  P r e f e r e n c e s are r e l a t i v e . p a r i n g it w i t h s o m e t h i n g e l s e .  with  S o m e t h i n g c a n be p r e f e r r e d o n l y a f t e r c o m -  Accordingly, preferences recorded within  g r o u p of f o u r p i c t u r e s w e r e m a d e w i t h r e f e r e n c e to o t h e r p i c t u r e s i n t h a t group.  Suppose a r e c o r d e d preference  preference  (R),  (E) i s a t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o n a r e a l  so t h a t  (Ei  - Eg)  =  constant  x(R  x  - R )  (1)  2  w h e r e t h e c o n s t a n t i s d e p e n d e n t o n l y u p o n the p a r t i c u l a r g r o u p of f o u r pictures.  Then a l l such transformations E ( I , J)  where  P  and  =  are  P(I) x R ( L J) + Q(I)  (2)  Q a r e c o n s t a n t s s p e c i f i c to e a c h p a r t i c u l a r g r o u p (I)  p i c t u r e s of s c e n e  (J).  T h o s e v a l u e s of P(I)  v a r i a t i o n between mean responses  a n d Q(I)  of  which minimize  to s e p a r a t e o c c u r r e n c e s  of the  p i c t u r e w e r e f o u n d i t e r a t i v e l y a n d the s e t of a d j u s t e d p r e f e r e n c e s  same (R)  obtained (Table IV). T a b l e I i l l u s t r a t e s the s i g n i f i c a n c e ' of the P , Q t r a n s f o r m a t i o n .  each  TABLE  I.  S i g n i f i c a n c e of d a t a a d j u s t m e n t b y t h e P , Q t r a n s f o r m . ( A l l v a r i a t i o n b e t w e e n o c c u r r e n c e s of g i v e n p i c t u r e s . )  S o u r c e of V a r i a t i o n  d.f.  ss  ms  F  Significance  4.04  99.9 %  R e m o v e d by fitting P , Q (regression)  96  1.8639  0.0194  R e m a i n i n g after fitting (residual)  65  0 . 3 0 95  0.0048  161  2.1734  Before fitting (total)  P,Q  T a b l e I V a n d t h e a b o v e a n a l y s i s of v a r i a n c e i l l u s t r a t e t h e a d v a n t a g e of t h e P, Q transform.  Indeed, the r e d u c t i o n i n r e s p o n s e v a r i a t i o n between o c c u r -  r e n c e s of a s p e c i f i c s t i m u l u s ( p i c t u r e ) i s s u c h t h a t a d j u s t e d r e s p o n s e s c a n b e p o o l e d f o r a n a l y s i s of v a r i a t i o n a t t r i b u t a b l e to t h e n u m b e r of a n d d i s t a n c e to neighbouring houses. Again, ference  preferences are relative.  T h e a d j u s t e d s e t (R) r e f l e c t s p r e -  f o r o n e p i c t u r e i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h o t h e r s s h a r i n g the s a m e b a c k -  ground scene. neighbour,  C o n s i d e r i n g o n l y t h e e f f e c t of d i s t a n c e to n e a r e s t p e r c e i v e d  s u p p o s e a c h a n g e i n p r e f e r e n c e (AR) d e p e n d s u p o n :  (1)  t h e l e v e l of p r e f e r e n c e p r e v a i l i n g b e f o r e t h e c h a n g e ( R ) ;  (2)  t h e m a g n i t u d e of t h e c h a n g e i n n e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e (AD); a n d ,  (3) s u c h that  t h e n e a r e s t n e i g h b o u r d i s t a n c e e x i s t i n g b e f o r e t h e c h a n g e (D),  where  R,  AR,  assuming  D , a n d A D a r e as d e f i n e d above,  s m a l l A R and AD, and a continuous  a n d ot i s s o m e  function,  constant.  By-  then r e - a r r a n g i n g ,  we  obtain  |dR which,  =  upon integration, =  C o n s i d e r the integration  alnD  + c .  constant  c  (5) to b e r e l a t e d  to a s e c o n d  constant  k  follows: c  Substituting  =  Using  similar  between visible  =  k'  =  s e t (R) a n d t h e n u m b e r  generally  expressed  This  k ' N ^  (8) comparable  now classic  "power  =  k $  with k  and a i n equation  (7).  Law  f u n c t i o n " of p s y c h o p h y s i c s  is  (9)  m  Y is the p s y c h o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e and m  some  s i m i l a r i t y with this  mathematical  of n e i g h b o u r s  as Y  1965),  relationship  (7) a n d (8) a r e p r e c i s e l y t h e f o r m t a k e n b y W e b e r ' s  I960).  Sjoberg,  a hypothetical  as  a n d j8 a r e c o n s t a n t s  a constant,  we obtain (7)  and argument,  (N) c a n b e e x p r e s s e d  (Stevens,  their  and taking antilogs,  the a d j u s t e d p r e f e r e n c e  Equations  where  (6)  kD°\  assumptions  R where  Ink.  (6) i n (5) a b o v e R  k  (4)  yields  InR  as  ctgID  equations  power  to s o m e  which varies  physical stimulus  $,  between  Given  w e l l - d o c u m e n t e d l a w of p s y c h o l o g y (7) a n d (8) o f f e r e d p r o m i s e  d e s c r i p t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n  a n d the independent v a r i a b l e s initially tested therefore  stimuli.  under  study.  (Ekman and  as c o m p o n e n t s subjective  Multiple regression  employed these variables  in a variety  of a  preference models of c o m b i n a -  .  15 t i o n s a n d w i t h a r a n g e of p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s , shown i n T a b l e II.  representatives  O f the v a r i a t i o n s p o s s i b l e ,  of w h i c h a r e  the f o r m o f f e r i n g the g r e a t e s t  p r o m i s e was R  T A B L E II.  = A + BD N^.  (10)  f f  M u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n models initially tested, variance ratios ( F ) , s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s ( S i g n i f . ) , a n d c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e lation. (Considering only within scene variation.)  Model  F  Signif.(%)  C o e f f i c i e n t of Correlation  R = A + Bi D  1  + B N  1  19.5  95  .68  R = A + Bx D  _ 1  + B N  1  46.9  95  .79  47.4  95  .79  53.3  95  .80  3  2  R = A + B D"* + B N 5  x  R = A + BD  - 1  N  2  1  1  U s i n g e q u a t i o n (10) a s t h e m o d e l a n d f i t t i n g a a n d /3 to a l l d a t a , v a l u e s of t h o s e p a r a m e t e r s squares.  T r i a l v a l u e s of /3 c o n v e r g e d q u i t e r a p i d l y to a n o p t i m u m 0 . 5 +  (90 p e r c e n t C . I . ) . -1.0  + .5  w e r e s o u g h t w h i c h m i n i m i z e d r e s i d u a l s u m s of  The p a r a m e t e r  .2  a c o n v e r g e d v e r y s l o w l y to a n o p t i m u m  (90 p e r c e n t C . I . ) .  The e x t r e m e l y h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n s between dependent and independent v a r i a b l e s ( T a b l e III a n d F i g u r e 2) a r e i n i t i a l l y c a u s e  for a l a r m .  Such  c o r r e l a t i o n s are s e l d o m found except when c o m p a r i n g something with itself. T h e r e i s i n d e e d the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t p e o p l e w e r e r e s p o n d i n g to the " H o w m a n y h o u s e s a r e t h e r e ? ", But,  and,  " H o w f a r a w a y i s the n e i g h b o u r ? "  s i n c e s c o r e s w e r e r e c o r d e d on " p r e f e r e n c e "  valid questions.  questions,  c o l u m n s , t h e s e m a y be  S u c h h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e not u n c o m m o n i n p s y c h o l o g i c a l  100  90  +  SCENE  1  x  SCENE  2  >  SCENE  3  V  SCENE  4  I  V  BO  (Z  70  D U IU  GO  D LU LY LL  40  +  >  +  50 X v  30  X  SO X  10  4  10  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  r  SO  30  40  50  BO  70  BO  90  100  OBSERVED R Figure 2 .  Observed (adjusted) preferences versus those predicted by the regression equation for each scene.  17 investigations,  or those whose t e c h n i q u e s a r e b o r r o w e d f r o m that f i e l d  (Masuda and H o l m e s ,  1967).  -1  T A B L E III.  P a r a m e t e r s A a n d B of the r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l R = A - B D N , v a r i a n c e r a t i o s (F), s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s (Signif.), and c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e l a t i o n f o r e a c h of t h e s c e n e s i n P l a t e 1.  F  C o e f f i c i e n t of Correlation  Scene  F  B  1  74  2750  52.6  99  .93  2  70  2550  157.8  99  .97  3  . 73  2100  230.2  99  .99  4  88  1950  17.6  95  .92  All  72  2150  77.4  99  .85  Signif.  I n t e r p r e t i n g T a b l e III a n d F i g u r e 3,  (%)  one m i g h t a t t r i b u t e v a r i a t i o n i n  p a r a m e t e r A to d i f f e r e n t i n i t i a l q u a l i t i e s of the s c e n e s p r e s e n t e d , s i g n i f i c a n c e c a n be a t t a c h e d to t h o s e d i f f e r e n c e s h e r e . F i n e s (1968) a n d S h a f e r ,  et a l . ,  (1969),  measure  but l i t t l e  S t u d i e s l i k e t h o s e of  are d i r e c t e d t o w a r d an understanding  of the p r o c e s s b y w h i c h i n i t i a l p r e f e r e n c e s are made.  .5  for different scenes or  landscapes  V a r i a t i o n i n t h e p a r a m e t e r B ( T a b l e III) c a n be i n t e r p r e t e d a s a  of t h e s e n s i t i v i t y of a p a r t i c u l a r s c e n e (or e n v i r o n m e n t ) to t h e e f f e c t s  of p o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e ,  a c o n c e r n of P e t e r s o n a n d N e u m a n n ( 1 9 6 9 ) .  The com-  p a r a t i v e l y l o w w e i g h t g i v e n B i n s c e n e 4 m i g h t be a r e s u l t of the p r o x i m a t e waterfront,  reflecting a greater  lation p r e s s u r e or, r e s o u r c e they seek.  conversely,  c a p a c i t y of t h a t e n v i r o n m e n t to a b s o r b p o p u to s u p p l y p e o p l e w i t h the  recreational  A l t e r n a t i v e l y , B c a n be c o n s i d e r e d a m e a s u r e of the  i m p a c t of d e v e l o p m e n t u p o n the r e c r e a t i o n a l q u a l i t y of a n e n v i r o n m e n t . J a c o b s a n d W a y (1969) i n i t i a t e d m o s t i m p o r t a n t w o r k i n t o the c a p a c i t y of a n e n v i r o n m e n t to a b s o r b o r m a s k s i g n s of d e v e l o p m e n t o r ,  i n the c o n t e x t of  t h i s s t u d y , to i d e n t i f y the e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e t e r m i n a n t s of the p a r a m e t e r  B.  18  T A B L E IV.  S c ene  A t a b u l a r c o m p a r i s o n of u n a d j u s t e d (E), a d j u s t e d (R), a n d p r e d i c t e d m e a n e v a l u a t i o n s of p i c t u r e s s h o w n i n P l a t e 1.  Picture  Unadjusted Mean SE (E)  1  88  5  2  70  8  3  55  10  4  55  18  5  43  6  Adjusted Mean SE (R)  Predicted Mean R=A+BD~ N 1  Number Houses  Distance to n e a r est (ft.)  2  74  0  5  69  1  500  58  3  65  1  300  54  7  59  1  180  12  46  4  52  1  124  33  13  36  3  43  1  90  7  57  13  55  4  52  2  180  8  30  16  36  2  21  3  90  9  21  8  0  3  6  5  90  85 .  70  1  73  11  71  1  70  0  2  78  8  70  3  65  1  500  3  74  8  63  2  62  1  300  4  57  12  54  2  56  1  180  5  55  8  44  4  49  1  124  6  53  10  45  3  42  1  90  7  63  12  55  1  58  2  300  8  37  8  33  2  20  3  90  7  12  9  21  2  13  4  90  LO  26  13  24  2  30  2  90  Ll  13  6  2  6  7  5  90  1  75  4  73  0  73  0  2  66  3  69  2  69  1  500  3  64  11  67  3  66  1  300  4  57  12  64  2  61  1  180  5  43  10  57  0  56  1  124  6  37  14  49  1  50  1  90  1  82  8  83  5  88  2  71  9  71  5  66  1  90  3  63  7  62  3  49  1  50  4  46  13  45  8  39  1  50  5  23  9  24  • 3  55  2  50  0  19  DISTANCE  F i g u r e 3.  TO N E A R E S T  NEIGHBOUR  (FEET)  S u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e v e r s u s d i s t a n c e to n e a r e s t s c e n e s 1-4,  onehouse  visible.  neighbour,  20  Finally,  the d i s t a n c e b e t w e e n n e i g h b o u r i n g h o u s e s (D) c a n be  trans-  f o r m e d to the s i z e of the l o t s t h e y o c c u p y (L.S) by a s s u m i n g l o t a r e a to t h a t of a c i r c l e the d i a m e t e r of w h i c h i s the g i v e n d i s t a n c e .  LS  =  =  Hence,  n(D/2) .  (11)  2  S u b s t i t u t i n g t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i n e q u a t i o n (10) y i e l d s the  R  be  A  expression  ^  + B  (12)  to d e s c r i b e the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e  and  lot size  4).  (Figure  A l l of the f o r e g o i n g  s u p p o r t s the n o t i o n that e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i s  a f f e c t e d by p e r c e i v e d p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y . summer  cottage  Indeed, s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e  lots d e c r e a s e s with their p e r c e i v e d  r e l a t i o n s h i p w h i c h obeys a well established law conclusions  may  (1)  The  be  size according  of p s y c h o l o g y .  for  to a  Two  principal  drawn:  s u b d i v i s i o n of l o t s to s i z e s b e l o w two  acres  may  be  a c c o m p a n i e d by a r a t h e r r a p i d d e c r e a s e i n q u a l i t y . (2)  C h a n g e i n the q u a l i t y of s u b d i v i d e d  l a n d i s at l e a s t p a r t l y  density dependent.  The let me  i m p l i c a t i o n s of the f i r s t c o n c l u s i o n  s e e m initially obvious.  be the f i r s t o b j e c t o r to an i m p l i e d b y l a w p r o h i b i t i n g s u b d i v i s i o n of  l a n d i n t o p a r c e l s l e s s t h a n two  acres.  O n l y one  of a m u l t i t u d e  which c o l l e c t i v e l y constitute quality is considered a r e t h o s e who  a r g u e q u i t e f e r v e n t l y , and  for  d e n s i t i e s of the c i t i e s ,  and  f u n c t i o n i n t h a t c a p a c i t y m u s t be  of d i m e n s i o n s  Certainly,  there  that a s u b u r b a n  distributed is s t e r i l e .  of the G u l f I s l a n d s of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ,  f u t u r e s u b d i v i s i o n s m i g h t i n d e e d be v a l i d ,  higher  here.  I believe rightly,  e n v i r o n m e n t w h e r e the p o p u l a t i o n i s u n i f o r m l y context  But  a two-acre m i n i m u m lot size  f o r t h e r e i s r e l i e f f r o m the  the c a p a b i l i t y of r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d s maintained.  In the  to  Figure  4.  P r e f e r e n c e v e r s u s lot s i z e .  A l l s c e n e s , one h o u s e  visible.  22  Most important, The mathematical  however,  expression  i s the i m p l i c a t i o n of the s e c o n d c o n c l u s i o n .  f o u n d to r e l a t e  unconstrained  preference  to  v i s i b l e s i g n s of d e n s i t y s u g g e s t s a m e t h o d f o r h a n d l i n g m a n y d i m e n s i o n s of q u a l i t y i n the c o n t e x t of a s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . m e t e r s of e q u a t i o n (10) to v e c t o r s ,  B y s i m p l y e x p a n d i n g the p a r a -  m a t r i c e s or equations,  r e l a t i v e quality before development begins,  defining A  a n d B the r a t e at w h i c h t h e  of i n c r e a s i n g d e n s i t y ( v i s u a l , a u d i o , o r o l i f a c t o r y . ) i m p r o v e u p o n o r f r o m A , t h e s k e l e t o n of a s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l a p p e a r s , g r a m surfaces,  as signs  detract  an e x p e r i m e n t a l p r o -  and a u s e f u l t o o l f o r those c o n c e r n e d w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l  quality is p r o m i s e d .  S u c h a t o o l c o u l d be i n f i n i t e l y v a l u a b l e b o t h to t h o s e  w h o s e e k to p r e s e r v e e n v i r o n m e n t s ,  a n d to t h o s e who w i s h to d e v e l o p t h e m ,  for it could foster m o r e effective communication between  them.  23 PRODUCTION COST VERSUS L O T SIZE S i n c e the q u a l i t y of c o t t a g e l o t s i s at l e a s t p a r t l y d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e i r size,  those e c o n o m i c f o r c e s influencing lot size assume new i m p o r t a n c e .  the p r o d u c t i o n o r m a i n t e n a n c e be,  of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y i s ,  If  o r s h o u l d c o m e to  a s o c i a l p r i o r i t y , t h e n r e s p o n s e to e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a l o n e m i g h t p r o d u c e  a l e s s than o p t i m u m lot size d i s t r i b u t i o n .  D e f i n i t i o n of the  b e t w e e n p r o d u c t i o n c o s t and lot s i z e is t h e r e f o r e  relationship  necessary for  comparison  w i t h the q u a l i t y - s i z e f u n c t i o n d e v e l o p e d e a r l i e r . T h e e m p i r i c a l d e f i n i t i o n of a g e n e r a l i z e d t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n f o r t h e s u b d i v i s i o n of c o t t a g e l o t s s e e m s a n i m p e r t i n e n t u n d e r t a k i n g . d o u s n u m b e r of v a r i a b l e s i n v o l v e d a n d the r e l u c t a n c e c l o s e d a t a p r e d i c t f a i l u r e f r o m the o u t s e t .  The  tremen-  of d e v e l o p e r s to d i s -  Y e t r u l e s of t h u m b a n d g e n e r a l  a p p r o a c h e s to p r o d u c t i o n c o s t e s t i m a t i o n s a r e n o t u n c o m m o n ( B l i s s , M a s h k e , 1963; requirements indeed,  1957;  W a g n e r , 1957); d e t a i l e d t r e a t m e n t s of t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of s o m e c o m m u n i t i e s c a n be f o u n d ( M c K e e v e r , 1968);  and  and,  m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l s of c a s h f l o w s h a v e b e e n b u i l t to o p t i m i z e the  return from long-term,  large-scale  developments  (Wendt, 1967).  a v a i l a b l e m o d e l s of d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s c o n s i d e r s p e c i f i c s e r v i c e s a n d o n l y t h e r e g i o n of i n c r e a s i n g r e t u r n s to s c a l e ( D o w n i n g , 1969), t o the u n t e s t a b l e  (Smith,  However, (sewers) or r e t r e a t  1969).  One practitioner (Thomsen,  1968)  has found and p u b l i s h e d the  f o r m of a c o s t c u r v e p r e d i c t e d b y c l a s s i c a l e c o n o m i c t h e o r y , 1  general  and P e a r s o n  (1965) h a s d e t a i l e d the c o s t s of s u b d i v i d i n g s e v e r a l a c r e a g e s i n t o v a r i o u s s i z e d l o t s at s e r v i c i n g l e v e l s r e q u i r e d b y l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s  (Table V ) .  The  f i r s t p r o v i d e s the i m p e t u s to a t t e m p t m a t h e m a t i c a l d e s c r i p t i o n of a g e n e r a l i z e d total cost function,  1  Ferguson, C . E . I l l i n o i s , p.  the s e c o n d e m p i r i c a l d a t a w i t h w h i c h to t e s t i t s w o r t h . 1966. 170.  Microeconomic Theory.  Irwin.  Homewood,  24 L e t the t o t a l c o s t ( T C ) of p r o d u c i n g a n u m b e r of l o t s be c o m p r i s e d of land purchase  (P) a n d s u b d i v i s i o n (S) c o s t s , TC  =  P + S  Now consider land purchase g  acres.  If t h e s e  g  so t h a t  (13)  (P) a l o n e ,  a n d l e t the a r e a to be s u b d i v i d e d be  a c r e s are purchased for  b  d o l l a r s per  acre,  = bg  P  (14)  a n d the t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n b e c o m e s TC Now allow  g  =  bg + S .  (15)  a c r e s to be s u b d i v i d e d i n t o  s t a t e d p r o p o r t i o n of  s  n  l o t s of s i z e  s,  r e p r e s e n t that l a n d used f o r r o a d s ,  and let s o m e unparks,  schools,  a n d o t h e r p u b l i c p r o p e r t y so t h a t g Substituting  = ns.  (16) i n (15) a b o v e , TC  Next,  (16)  -  we o b t a i n  b s n + S.  c o n s i d e r t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of l e g a l ,  d i v i s i o n c o s t s (S).  (17) survey,  a n d r e a l t y f e e s to  sub-  S u c h f e e s a r e f r e q u e n t l y c a l c u l a t e d as a p r o p o r t i o n of  the m a r k e t p r i c e of the p r o p e r t y i n q u e s t i o n a n d c a n t h e r e f o r e be m o d e l l e d a s s o m e p r o p o r t i o n (k) of the s e l l i n g p r i c e (r) of the S  =  n  lots produced.  krn  (18)  T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p h o l d s e v e n f o r the p a r t i c u l a r c a s e w h e r e bought and then s o l d intact,  g  acres  are  f o r t h e r e j u s t one l o t i s p r o d u c e d .  N o w c o n s i d e r t h a t l a n d a n d l a b o u r a r e the t w o i n p u t s r e q u i r e d f o r cottage lot p r o d u c t i o n .  O n e of t h e s e i n p u t s m a y be d e c r e a s e d a n d a g i v e n  25 l e v e l of p r o d u c t i o n m a i n t a i n e d o n l y b y i n c r e a s i n g the o t h e r i n p u t . to s a y ,  That is  2  t e n l o t s m i g h t be p r o d u c e d f r o m f i f t y a c r e s of l a n d w i t h a s m a l l a m o u n t  of l a b o u r .  T o p r o d u c e t e n l o t s f r o m one a c r e ,  p o r t e d to t h e s i t e ,  more elaborate  r o a d s m u s t be m o r e d u r a b l e .  a d d i t i o n a l w a t e r m u s t be  waste d i s p o s a l s y s t e m s  m u s t be b u i l t ,  T h e c o s t of s e r v i c i n g a s i n g l e l o t m a y  be c o n s i d e r e d i n v e r s e l y p r o p o r t i o n a l to i t s s i z e (s).  transand  therefore  This relationship is  c o n v e n i e n t l y i n c l u d e d i n t h e s u b d i v i s i o n c o s t s (S) b y m o d i f y i n g e q u a t i o n (18)  as  follows. S where  =  k r n (1  (19)  L i s a c o n s t a n t d e s c r i b i n g the t e c h n o l o g y a v a i l a b l e f o r s e r v i c i n g l o t s .  The expression  — represents  a d d i t i o n s to s u b d i v i s i o n c o s t s w h i c h r e s u l t f r o m  lot s m a l l n e s s .  W h e r e technology i s i n e x p e n s i v e and highly developed,  r e q u i r e d to adequately s e r v i c e s m a l l l o t s , t i o n a l w a t e r m u s t be i m p o r t e d ,  L is very small.  sewage exported,  l o g i c a l p r o b l e m s a r i s e as l o t s b e c o m e s m a l l e r ,  o r not  But where addi-  or other e x p e n s i v e  techno-  L m a y be a d j u s t e d u p w a r d to  account for those difficulties. T u r n i n g f i n a l l y to the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t o t a l c o s t a n d n u m b e r l o t s p r o d u c e d , t r a d i t i o n s u g g e s t s r e g i o n s of i n c r e a s i n g r e t u r n s to s c a l e .  and  of  decreasing  B e c a u s e such a c u r v e is complex m a t h e m a t i c a l l y ,  the  other c o s t - p r o d u c t i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p s h i g h l y s i m p l i f i e d , and p r o d u c t i o n always i n the r e g i o n of d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s a n y w a y , is included here.  3  no r e g i o n of i n c r e a s i n g  S i n c e the a i m of t h i s e x e r c i s e i s to p r o d u c e a g e n e r a l i z e d  t o t a l c o s t f u n c t i o n w h i c h c a n be t u n e d to a g i v e n set of c o n d i t i o n s , of the f u n c t i o n m u s t be f l e x i b l e . returns,  returns  all features  W i t h r e s p e c t to a r e g i o n of d i m i n i s h i n g  t h i s f l e x i b i l i t y m u s t p r o v i d e o p p o r t u n i t y to a d j u s t (1) the l e v e l of  p r o d u c t i o n w h e r e d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s b e g i n to o c c u r , s  Ferguson,  op. cit.,  p.  157.  3  Ferguson,  op. cit.,  p.  197.  a n d (2)  the r a t e at  26 which returns diminish.  These objectives  b y m o d i f y i n g e q u a t i o n (19) S where  m  and  entrepreneur  p  =  as f o l l o w s :  k r n (1 +—) s  are constants.  efficiency,  are met s i m p l y and conveniently  + m(e  p n  - 1)  (20)  The p a r a m e t e r  m  effectively  determines  o r the n u m b e r of l o t s w h i c h c a n b e p r o d u c e d b e f o r e  d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s b e g i n to o c c u r .  O n c e b e g u n , the r a t e at w h i c h r e t u r n s  d i m i n i s h i s d e t e r m i n e d b y the p a r a m e t e r  p.  S u b s t i t u t i n g (20) i n (17),  the  total cost equation now becomes TC  =  b s n + k r n ( l +—)  5  + m(e  P n  A l t h o u g h e u q a t i o n (21) i s h i g h l y s i m p l i f i e d , t h e f l e x i b i l i t y r e q u i r e d to a c c o m m o d a t e regions.  matches  provide  s u b d i v i s i o n p r o b l e m s of d i f f e r e n t  Pearson's  u s i n g a not  (1965) d a t a ( T a b l e V ) w i t h  accuracy.  If a s k e d to p l a c e a v a l u e on s o m e t h i n g , tion cost.  (21)  the i n p u t c o n s t a n t s  A g r a p h i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n ( F i g u r e 5) of e q u a t i o n (21),  u n r e a l i s t i c set of i n p u t v a l u e s , reasonable  - 1).  Two measures  are therefore  one m i g h t w e l l c i t e i t s p r o d u c -  of c o s t w i t h w h i c h to c o m p a r e s u b j e c t i v e  preferences  m a r g i n a l a n d a v e r a g e d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s of c o t t a g e l o t s .  Average  c o s t i s s i m p l y the t o t a l c o s t of a s u b d i v i s i o n d i v i d e d b y the n u m b e r of l o t s i t contains.  M a r g i n a l c o s t i s the a d d i t i o n to t o t a l c o s t a t t r i b u t a b l e to the p r o -  d u c t i o n of one. m o r e l o t . C o m p a r i s o n of F i g u r e 6 w i t h F i g u r e 4 l e a d s r a p i d l y to the c o n c l u s i o n that s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e  changes w i t h d i m i n i s h i n g lot size quite d i f f e r e n t l y  f r o m the w a y i n w h i c h a v e r a g e a n d m a r g i n a l c o s t s c h a n g e w i t h d i m i n i s h i n g lot size.  M o r e o v e r , a d e v e l o p e r r e s p o n d i n g to e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a l o n e w o u l d  p r o d u c e l o t s of a s i z e d i c t a t e d b y the i n t e r s e c t i o n of m a r g i n a l r e v e n u e m a r g i n a l cost above average b e l o w F i g u r e 5,  cost.  T h a t i s to s a y ,  with  u n d e r the c o n d i t i o n s l i s t e d  a developer would only produce lots l e s s than 1-3/4  acres,  TABLE  V.  Subdivision Costs  (160 a c r e s )  C o s t p e r l o t ($) Servicing Level Lot Size  No. Lots  Full  1614  1135  2  939  1588  2  532  2, 500 f t . (.06 ac) 5,000 f t . (.11 ac) 10,000 f t . ' (.23 ac) 40,000 f t . ( . 9 2 ac) 5. ac  2  150  30  T o t a l S u b d i v i s i o n C o s t s ($) Servicing Level  Minimal  Full  Partial  Minimal  685  401  1,831,933  1,105,433  647,325  984  60 3  1 , 4 9 1 , 543  923,892  566,061  121961  1457  90 5  1,168,356  775,060  481,625  5421  3594  2419  813,143  539,084  362,818  i  Partial  i  7833  A f t e r P e a r s o n (1965). T h e 5 a c r e c o s t s w e r e c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g that a u t h o r ' s f i g u r e s and p r o v i d i n g g r a v e l roads only, and d e v e l o p e r ' s l a n d costs a r e a s s u m e d to b e $ 1 6 0 , 0 0 0 . The boxed f i g u r e s a r e those w h i c h p r o v i d e adequate s e r v i c i n g to l o t s of c o r r e s p o n d i n g s i z e ( P e a r s o n ) a n d a r e p l o t t e d i n F i g u r e s 9 a n d 10.  235,000  2.+ +  AFTER  P E A R S O N (1965) AND  TABLE  V  TC = bsn + krn (1 +^ )+ m ( e - 1 ) p n  i  1  1  1  LOT  5.  1  1  2  SIZE  1  3  1  1  1  4  (ACRES)  Development cost v e r s u s lot s i z e ,  160 a c r e s u b d i v i s i o n .  Assumptions: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.  expected s e l l i n g p r i c e p e r lot $6, 000; d e v e l o p e r ' s l a n d c o s t $ 1 , 000 p e r a c r e ; l e g a l , s u r v e y a n d r e a l t y f e e s = 1 5 % of s e l l i n g p r i c e ; l o t s i z e at w h i c h m a r g i n a l c o s t h a s i n c r e a s e d 10% b e c a u s e of s m a l l n e s s = 0 . 5 a c . ; 10% p e n a l t y at the m a r g i n , f o r d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s t o s c a l e a f t e r d e v e l o p i n g 1000 l o t s ; 20% p e n a l t y at the m a r g i n , f o r d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u r n s t o s c a l e a f t e r d e v e l o p i n g 2000 l o t s .  r 5  29  Figure  6.  A v e r a g e and m a r g i n a l d e v e l o p m e n t cost v e r s u s lot size, 160 a c r e s u b d i v i s i o n . A s s u m p t i o n s as L i s t e d b e n e a t h F i g u r e 5.  30  and often v e r y m u c h s m a l l e r than that. mental quality losses,  To prevent c o n c o m i t a n t e n v i r o n -  c o s t c r i t e r i a m u s t be m o d i f i e d a n d t r a d i t i o n a l l y we  l o o k to the m a r k e t to p r o v i d e t h e n e c e s s a r y c o r r e c t i n g i n f l u e n c e . following section therefore price  determinations.  The  e x a m i n e s the i n f l u e n c e of p a r c e l s i z e i n m a r k e t  31 M A R K E T V A L U E VERSUS LOT SIZE Because land tenure assumes  s u c h a dominant r o l e in our society,  it  i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t e x t e n s i v e d a t a c o n c e r n i n g l a n d o w n e r s h i p a r e to be found i n governmental offices.  A l t h o u g h r e c o r d keeping systems have changed,  t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t c o n t i n u i t y to c a r r y out i n t e n s i v e s t u d i e s of the h i s t o r y of land development.  T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n e x a m i n e s the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n the  s i z e a n d m a r k e t p r i c e of p a r c e l s of G u l f I s l a n d l a n d . If t h e p r i c e p a i d f o r a g i v e n p a r c e l of l a n d i s e x p e c t e d to v a r y w i t h i t s size,  i t m u s t a l s o be e x p e c t e d to v a r y w i t h the s u i t a b i l i t y of the p a r c e l f o r the  buyer's needs.  A n a g r i c u l t u r a l i s t would l i k e l y pay a higher p r i c e for t i l l ab le  l a n d t h a n he w o u l d f o r a s t e e p r o c k y h i l l s i d e . p r o x i m i t y to w a t e r ,  A s developed earlier,  and c e r t a i n v e g e t a t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  m i n a n t s of q u a l i t y i n t h e c o n t e x t of o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n .  slope,  are three  deter-  Since m a r k e t data  a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s s t u d y i n c l u d e p r e c i s e d e s c r i p t i o n s of p a r c e l l o c a t i o n s , s l o p e s a n d p r o x i m i t y to w a t e r c o u l d be d e f i n e d f o r e a c h . characteristics,  however,  a r e s u b j e c t to r a t h e r r a p i d c h a n g e s ,  i f one c o n s i d e r s the p r e s e n c e characteristics  Vegetational  of t r e e s to be i m p o r t a n t .  Because  particularly vegetational  at t h e t i m e s a l e s t o o k p l a c e a r e u n k n o w n , t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on  m a r k e t p r i c e m u s t a p p e a r as u n e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e . B e c a u s e the o v e r a l l s t u d y w a s c o n f i n e d to t h e G u l f I s l a n d s of B r i t i s h Columbia,  s a m p l i n g w a s of p a r c e l s o n G a l i a n o , S a l t s p r i n g , M a y n e ,  N o r t h P e n d e r and South P e n d e r I s l a n d s , immediate vicinity.  and the s m a l l i s l a n d s i n t h e i r  Data required were:  (1) p a r c e l s i z e ;  (3) d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e n e a r e s t w a t e r ( l a k e o r o c e a n ) ; (5) d a t e of s a l e .  Saturna,  (2) a v e r a g e  (4) p u r c h a s e p r i c e ;  slope; and  I n a d d i t i o n , s o m e m e t h o d of s t a n d a r d i z i n g d o l l a r v a l u e s  through time was r e q u i r e d . H i s t o r i c a l r e c o r d s of l a n d o w n e r s h i p , the s i z e of i n d i v i d u a l d a t e s of l a n d s a l e s ,  prices paid,  parcels,  a n d a w e a l t h of o t h e r d a t a o c c u r p a r t l y i n  t a x a s s e s s m e n t r e c o r d s and p a r t l y i n P r o v i n c i a l L a n d R e g i s t r y f i l e s .  The  32 latter,  a l t h o u g h c o n t a i n i n g a l l i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d f o r the s t u d y d e s c r i b e d  h e r e , a r e a c h r o n o l o g y of l a n d s u b d i v i s i o n a n d o w n e r s h i p c h a n g e s w i t h i n the province.  T h e y a r e t h e r e f o r e i n d e p e n d e n t of s p e c i f i c g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s of  the p r o v i n c e .  Tax assessment records,  on the o t h e r h a n d ,  grid established in original land surveys.  A l t h o u g h t h e s e r e c o r d s do not  c o n t a i n m a r k e t p r i c e s a n d d a t e s of l a n d s a l e s , c i s e l o c a t i o n of p a r c e l s of l a n d ,  a r e k e y e d to a  t h e y do s t a t e the s i z e a n d p r e -  a n d the " C e r t i f i c a t e of T i t l e " n u m b e r u n d e r  w h i c h that d o c u m e n t i s f i l e d i n the L a n d R e g i s t r y .  In addition,  assessed  v a l u e s a r e u s u a l l y r e c o r d e d s e p a r a t e l y for l a n d and " i m p r o v e m e n t s . "  While  a s s e s s e d v a l u e s do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y m i m i c m a r k e t p r i c e s at a n y p o i n t i n t i m e , t h e y do p e r m i t s o m e e s t i m a t e  of t h a t p r o p o r t i o n of t h e p r i c e w h i c h b o u g h t the  l a n d a n d t h a t p r o p o r t i o n w h i c h b o u g h t the b u i l d i n g s on i t . D a t a C o l l e c t i o n and A n a l y s i s A s s e s s m e n t r o l l s of the a p p r o p r i a t e i s l a n d s f o r 1930, a n d 1970 w e r e a v a i l a b l e f o r the s t u d y .  O f t h e s e , the 1930  1940,  1950,  I960,  a n d 1940 r o l l s d i d  n o t i n c l u d e " C e r t i f i c a t e of T i t l e " n u m b e r s r e q u i r e d to g a i n a c c e s s to m a r k e t v a l u e s f i l e d i n the L a n d R e g i s t r y . last three assessment r o l l s . p e r cent s y s t e m a t i c  S a m p l i n g w a s t h e r e f o r e r e s t r i c t e d to the  R e q u i r e d i n f o r m a t i o n was r e c o r d e d f r o m a ten  s a m p l i n g of e a c h l e d g e r .  M a r k e t v a l u e s and t r a n s a c t i o n  d a t e s w e r e l a t e r o b t a i n e d f r o m L a n d R e g i s t r y f i l e s a l o n g w i t h p l a n s of s u b divisions which included sampled lots.  A v e r a g e s l o p e a n d d i s t a n c e to w a t e r  w e r e r e c o r d e d for each p a r c e l after locating it on a topographic map. A t l e a s t f o u r t y p e s of t r a n s a c t i o n s o c c u r i n L a n d R e g i s t r y d a t a : r e g u l a r sale;  (2) i n h e r i t a n c e ;  (3) s a l e f o r $1 a n d " n a t u r a l l o v e a n d a f f e c t i o n " ;  a n d (4) the s u b d i v i s i o n of one p a r c e l i n t o s e v e r a l w h i c h a r e i n i t i a l l y i n the n a m e of the s u b d i v i d e r .  (1)  registered  S i n c e the l a t t e r t h r e e t y p e s of t r a n s f e r do n o t  provide a market-determined price,  t h e y a r e e x c l u d e d f r o m the a n a l y s i s .  A n o t h e r e f f e c t w h i c h c o u l d b i a s t h e a n a l y s i s i s c h a n g e i n the r e l a t i v e v a l u e of d o l l a r s t h r o u g h t i m e .  M a r k e t prices were therefore  standardized  33 u s i n g the D o m i n i o n B u r e a u of S t a t i s t i c s  total consumer p r i c e index  a d j u s t e d to a c o m m o n b a s e y e a r ( C a n a d a Y e a r B o o k s 1914,  1946,  (CPI)  and 1969).  B e c a u s e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s d e v e l o p e d h e r e a r e to b e e x a m i n e d i n the  context  of the G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r ( R e s o u r c e S c i e n c e  Centre,  U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ) , a n d p r i c e s i n t h a t m o d e l a r e i n 1961 d o l l a r s , m a r k e t v a l u e s c o l l e c t e d i n t h i s s t u d y w e r e a l s o b r o u g h t to t h a t s t a n d a r d ,  as  follows; . P r i c e (1961  . dollars) n  =  T r a n s a c t i o n p r i c e * C P I (1961) „_ , : C P I ( T r a n s a c t i o n year) T  frr  c  s  T h e p r o p o r t i o n of t h e p r i c e w h i c h b r o u g h t t h e " i m p r o v e m e n t s " on e a c h p a r c e l w a s t h e n r e m o v e d to o b t a i n l a n d v a l u e s ( L V ) as f o l l o w s : / , ^ / , L V (1961 T  -, > dollars) ni  =  P r i c e (1 961 d o l l a r s ) * l a n d a s s e s s m e n t * total assessment  T h e v a l i d i t y of t h i s l a s t " c o r r e c t i o n " to o b s e r v e d p r i c e s i s  questionable  s i n c e a s s e s s m e n t and m a r k e t p r i c e d e t e r m i n a t i o n s used w e r e not n e c e s s a r i l y m a d e i n the s a m e y e a r . y e a r of s a l e ,  the  and a s s u m i n g that m a n y m o r e i m p r o v e m e n t s w e r e added than  removed through time, land prices,  B u t b y u s i n g a s s e s s m e n t s m a d e i n , or a f t e r ,  land values obtained w i l l consistently  underestimate  a n d t r e n d s i n m a r k e t p r i c e s w h i c h a p p e a r f r o m the a n a l y s i s  should reflect actual trends. To examine c o r r e c t e d p r i c e s for trends along the independent v a r i a b l e "lot size",  i t i s n e c e s s a r y to g r o u p t h e d a t a i n p a r c e l o r l o t s i z e  classes.  T h a t i s , i n d i v i d u a l l a n d h o l d i n g s v a r y i n s i z e f r o m l e s s t h a n 0.1 to o v e r acres,  w h i l e the s i z e - p r i c e c o m p a r i s o n s u p o n w h i c h t h i s s t u d y  a r e t h o s e of s m a l l p a r c e l s w h e r e the s i z e - p r e f e r e n c e e a r l i e r s h o u l d be r e f l e c t e d . the s i z e - p r e f e r e n c e  Therefore,  relationship R  = A + BD"  1  N*  5  1000  concentrates  relationship developed  if-size classes are constructed f r o m  34 s u c h t h a t t h e r a n g e of R i s s i m i l a r f o r e a c h c l a s s , t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a v e r a g e with unity slope.  the s i m p l e s t h y p o t h e s i s  is  m a r k e t p r i c e and s i z e c l a s s is l i n e a r  P r i c e v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n s i z e c l a s s e s i s a t t r i b u t a b l e to  factors  other than those under investigation. C o n s i d e r i n g e q u a t i o n (1Z),  T a b l e III a n d o n l y t h o s e c a s e s w h e r e  n e i g h b o u r i s v i s i b l e , the g e n e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n p r e f e r e n c e  one  and lot s i z e  becomes  R = 7Z - Z150 (^f^Pj • N o w l e t us s a y ,  q u i t e a r b i t r a r i l y , t h a t t h o s e p a r c e l s of l a n d l e s s t h a n f i v e  a c r e s i n s i z e a r e of g r e a t e s t i n t e r e s t a n d t h a t a d e s i r a b l e d e g r e e of r e s o l u tion requires  six size classes below five acres.  d e t e r m i n e d by adopting a p r e f e r e n c e  Convenient c l a s s l i m i t s are  i n t e r v a l of s e v e n u n i t s f o r e a c h  size  class.  Preference P a r c e l Size (Acres)  0 Q  37 Q 7  44  51  ^  ^  58 ^  65  7Z ^  Q Q  T a b l e V I r e v e a l s the r e s u l t s of a n a n a l y s i s of p r i c e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e blocked data.  B o t h p a r c e l s i z e a n d y e a r of s a l e e x p l a i n a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r -  t i o n of w i t h i n - b l o c k p r i c e v a r i a t i o n , w h i l e d i s t a n c e s l o p e do n o t . independent,  Between size classes,  to w a t e r a n d p e r c e n t  p r i c e v a r i a t i o n a p p e a r s to be  i n d i c a t i n g t h e i n a d e q u a c y of the s i m p l e s i z e - p r i c e  hypothesis.  M o s t i m p o r t a n t i s the d e p e n d e n c e of m a r k e t p r i c e u p o n the v a r i a b l e " y e a r of s a l e " b e t w e e n  size classes.  independent  O f f u n d a m e n t a l i m p o r t a n c e to  t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h i s d e p e n d e n c e i s the n o t i o n that m a r k e t p r i c e t h e i n t e r s e c t i o n of s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d ,  size  represents  and that h i s t o r i c a l m a r k e t p r i c e data  t r a c e t h e l o c u s of t h i s i n t e r s e c t i o n t h r o u g h t i m e .  T e m p o r a l changes in either  35  T A B L E VI?  A n a l y s i s of m a r k e t p r i c e v a r i a t i o n a f t e r b l o c k i n g d a t a i n size classes defined above.  S o u r c e of V a r i a t i o n  dof  MS  F  Y e a r of S a l e ( R e g r e s s i o n ) Between Size Classes (Blocks) Residual  1 6 571  37.67 10.77 2.86  D i s t a n c e to W a t e r ( R e g r e s s i o n ) Between Size Classes (Blocks) Residual  1 6 571  9.26 6.08 2.91  3.19 2.09  Percent Slope (Regression) Between Size Classes (Blocks) Res idual  1 6 571  .94 5.24 2.92  .32 1.79  P a r c e l Size (Regression) • Between Size Classes (Blocks) Res idual  1 6 571  72.04 .34 2.80  13.21** 3.77**  25.8** .12  36  s u p p l y o r d e m a n d o r b o t h t h e r e f o r e d e t e r m i n e the p a t h w h i c h m a r k e t  prices  follow through time.  parcels  For  the p a s t c e n t u r y or m o r e , the d e m a n d f o r  of l a n d on the G u l f I s l a n d s h a s t i o n has  grown.  dual parcels  has  T h i s shift can  be  W h i l e the  place,  i n c r e a s e d with a resultant s e e n by  subdivision  the c a p a c i t y  parcels  i f o n l y b e c a u s e the r e s i d e n t  s u p p l y of l a n d r e m a i n s f i x e d ,  the  shift in p a r c e l  and  Figure  size distribution. parcel  7.  the r e s u l t i n g s h i f t i n p a r c e l  for future  popula-  s u p p l y of i n d i v i -  c o m p a r i n g the f r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n s of  s i z e s s h o w n i n T a b l e VII and  As  increased,  s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n take  supply r e s p o n s e is r e d u c e d .  of l e s s t h a n o p t i m u m s i z e a r e p r o d u c e d ,  p r e f e r e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p to b e g i n o p e r a t i o n .  s e t t i n g the  T h e s e two  more  s t a g e f o r the  effects  s u s t a i n e d p o p u l a t i o n , h e n c e d e m a n d g r o w t h to c a u s e the r e l a t i o n s h i p to b e g i n to r e f l e c t i n m a r k e t p r i c e .  In a d d i t i o n ,  size-  combine with  size-preference  S u c h an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the  t i m e d e p e n d e n c e of m a r k e t p r i c e b e t w e e n s i z e c l a s s e s  ( T a b l e VI) i s s u p p o r t e d  b y the  in Figure  average price-size class relationship displayed  C l e a r l y the m a r k e t d o e s not,  under a l l c i r c u m s t a n c e s ,  provide  d e v e l o p e r s w i t h a d i s c e r n i b l e m e a s u r e of q u a l i t y l o s t b e c a u s e of smallness.  And  e v e n w h e n p r i c e s do  parcel  i n d i c a t e a q u a l i t y c h a n g e , the  m i g h t be too w e a k to m o d i f y the i n f l u e n c e r e s p o n s e to the c o m b i n e d f o r c e s  7.  of c o s t c r i t e r i a .  of d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t and  signal  Subdivision  in  market price  alone  c a n t h e r e f o r e r e s u l t i n d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y .  Given this apparent incompatibility the  m a i n t e n a n c e of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y ,  "help".  S h o u l d he  of l a i s s e z - f a i r e s u b d i v i s i o n  with  the p o l i c y m a k e r m i g h t w e l l  cry,  set p o l i c y w h i c h w o u l d p r o h i b i t s m a l l l o t s u b d i v i s o n ,  c o u l d s o m e o t h e r p o l i c y a c h i e v e the d e s i r e d what w o u l d be  the e c o n o m i c and  p o l i c i e s d e s i g n e d to p r o t e c t correct  itself if left alone?  simulation  goal m o r e efficiently?  s o c i a l c o n s e q u e n c e s of t h e s e  environmental quality?  W i l l the  or  And  alternative situation  A n s w e r s to s u c h q u e s t i o n s c a n be f o u n d u s i n g  m o d e l s s u c h as that d e s c r i b e d i n the n e x t  section.  T A B L E  VII.  Number class  of p a r c e l s ,  average  price  and a s s e s s m e n t year.  and represent land values  and p r i c e range  Prices  shown are  by  size  i n 1961  $  only.  Number of  Average  Parcels  Price  Assessment  Year  Price M a x i m u m  Range  Standard  M i n i m u m  Deviation  Parcel Size  (acres)  1 950  129  3646  26, 449  40  928  37  702  5.00  +  844  1.70  -  4.99  571  0.43  -  1.69  23  198  4, 5 9 9  3, 8 6 7  86  2, 3 9 9  44  9  591  2, 2 2 4  773  0.42  516  1, 4 7 2  0.19  -  4  651  0.11  -  0.18  1  19  159 0  159  159  0  0.07  - 0.10  0  0  0.00  -  7, 2 0 8  5.00  +  1,  941  1.70  568  0.43  691  0.19  0 Assessment  Year  -  0  I960  85  4,079  43,405  97  44  1, 5 1 6  11, 090  103  27  682  2, 5 1 6  41  15  1, 1 7 6  10, 844  3  2,  4  327  650  12  308  0.11  1  4, 6 6 2  4, 6 6 2  662  0  0.07  2  710  1,075  345  516  0.00  Assessment  Year  0.06  '  -  4.99  -  0.42  -  1.69 0.18 0.10 0.06  1970  37  19,785  397,496  275  64,  671  5.00  29  4,303  14,461  336  3,  561  1.70  82  2, 3 1 9  9, 5 7 3  33  2, 0 6 8  0.43  32  1, 4 7 9  4, 379  141  1, 0 4 8  0.19  1  485  485  485  0  0.11  0  0  0  0  0  0.07  0  0  0  0  0  0.00  +  -  4.99 1.69 0.42 0.18 0.10 0.06  S i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n and a v e r a g e p a r c e l p r i c e by a s s e s s m e n t  year.  39 THE  G U L F ISLANDS R E C R E A T I O N A L LAND  " S u p p l y and d e m a n d " has b e c o m e s i o n of t h e s e m a r k e t p r o c e s s e s  modity,  an e x p r e s s i o n u s e d w h e n c o m p r e h e n -  becomes difficult.  c e r n i n g change i n supply, or d e m a n d ,  SIMULATOR  To answer questions  con-  o r t h e i r e f f e c t on the p r i c e of a n y c o m -  a l o o k at t h e i r d y n a m i c r a t h e r t h a n t r a d i t i o n a l s t a t i c r e l a t i o n s h i p i s  necessary.  To obtain this view,  into s u b - p r o c e s s e s  b o t h s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d m u s t be  that c a n be d e s c r i b e d ,  of the p a r e n t p r o c e s s e s .  dissected  t h e n r e j o i n e d to p r o d u c e a m o d e l  A m o s t u s e f u l a p p r o a c h to s u c h p r o b l e m s h a s  d e s c r i b e d as an e x p e r i m e n t a l c o m p o n e n t s a n a l y s i s ( H o l l i n g ,  1966).  It i s b a s e d o n the b e l i e f t h a t t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a n y s p e c i f i c e x a m p l e of a c o m p l e x p r o c e s s c a n be d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e a c t i o n a n d i n t e r a c t i o n of a n u m b e r of d i s c r e t e c o m p o n e n t s . S o m e of t h e s e c o m p o n e n t s a r e s h a r e d b y a l l e x a m p l e s of t h e p r o c e s s a n d c a n be c a l l e d b a s i c , i n t h a t t h e y .. u n d e r l i e a l l m a n i f e s t a t i o n s of the p r o c e s s . O t h e r s a r e p r e s e n t i n s o m e s i t u a t i o n s a n d n o t o t h e r s a n d c a n be t e r m e d s u b s i d i a r y . B y i n i t i a l l y d i v i d i n g the c o m p o n e n t s i n t o u n i v e r s a l l y o c c u r r i n g , or b a s i c ones, and s p o r a d i c , or s u b s i d i a r y o n e s , g e n e r a l i t y of a h i g h o r d e r b e c o m e s at l e a s t t h e o r e t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e . S o m e of the f e a t u r e s of e v e r y e x a m p l e of the p r o c e s s w i l l a r i s e f r o m t h e a c t i o n of v a r i o u s c o m b i n a t i o n s of the s u b s i d i a r y o n e s . O n c e the b a s i c c o m p o n e n t s a n d s o m e of the s u b s i d i a r y o n e s a r e t e n t a t i v e l y i d e n t i f i e d on the b a s i s of g e n e r a l o b s e r v a t i o n and e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n , a s i m p l e e x a m p l e is s e l e c t e d t h a t i n c l u d e s o n l y the b a s i c c o m p o n e n t s . P r e l i m i n a r y e x p e r i m e n t s s u g g e s t h y p o t h e s e s to e x p l a i n the a c t i o n of e a c h component, and these p o s t u l a t e s a r e then tested e x p e r i m e n t a l l y i n the c l a s s i c a l s c i e n t i f i c m a n n e r . W h e n a s e t of p o s t u l a t e s is f i n a l l y p r o v e d adequate, they are then e x p r e s s e d in a m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m a n d the e q u a t i o n s s y n t h e s i z e d to p r o d u c e a m o d e l of t h e b a s i c a l l y s i m p l e e x a m p l e c h o s e n . T h i s p r o v i d e s a b a s e f r o m w h i c h to e x p l o r e m o r e c o m p l e x e x a m p l e s where additional, s u b s i d i a r y components operate, for these n e w c o m p o n e n t s c a n be a n a l y z e d i n the s a m e w a y a n d the b a s i c m o d e l e x p a n d e d to i n c l u d e t h e m . In t h i s w a y a m o r e a n d m o r e c o m p l e x s t r u c t u r e is built, each p r o g r e s s i v e step being taken o n l y w h e n a v a l i d e x p l a n a t i o n h a s b e e n o b t a i n e d f o r the p r e vious step.  been  40 In brief,  the w h o l e a p p r o a c h m a y be l i k e n e d to the c o n t i n u e d d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n  of a c o m p l e x m a t h e m a t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p u n t i l d e f i n a b l e t e r m s defined,  appear.  Once  t h e s e t e r m s m a y be i n t e g r a t e d to b u i l d the f i n a l p r o d u c t o r s i m u l a -  tion model. T h e a p p l i c a t i o n of the a b o v e e x p e r i m e n t a l c o m p o n e n t s  a n a l y s i s to the  d e m a n d f o r a n d s u p p l y of c o t t a g e l o t s i n the G u l f I s l a n d s c l i m a x e d w i t h the p r o d u c t i o n of a G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r ( G I R L S ) . i n the i n t r o d u c t i o n to t h i s t h e s i s ,  parcels.  stated  the m o d e l s i m u l a t e s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the  G u l f I s l a n d s as p r i v a t e l y - o w n e d p a r c e l s of l a n d . system a key process  As  Within such a distribution  i s t h a t w h i c h s u b d i v i d e s the r e s o u r c e  into i n d i v i d u a l  T h e r e the e n v i r o n m e n t r e c e i v e s t h e i m p a c t of e c o n o m i c a l l y  social demands.  When those demands a r e strongly e x p r e s s e d ,  expressed  the s u b d i v i s i o n  of s m a l l l o t s i s l i k e l y to t a k e p l a c e w i t h a c o n c o m i t a n t l o s s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l quality. policy,  If the e c o n o m i c f o r c e s a r e m a d e w e a k b y s o m e m o n e t a r y o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l h e a l t h m i g h t be p r e s e r v e d at the e x p e n s e of,  h e a l t h of the e c o n o m y .  In t h i s s e n s e ,  then,  other  say,  t h e c o m b i n e d p r o c e s s e s of s u b -  d i v i s i o n a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e t e r i o r a t i o n m a y be v i e w e d a s a s y n t h e s i s social,  economic,  and e n v i r o n m e n t a l  (rectangles)  and l i n k a g e s  H e r e the " S u b d i v i s i o n " a n d " E c o l o g i c a l  (environmental deterioration)  a r e b a s e d upon the c o s t - l o t s i z e and s u b j e c t i v e p r e f e r e n c e - l o t  remaining subroutines, (Resource  D e m a n d for Cottage  they  size functions  elsewhere  U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a ) .  Lots  E a c h year (iteration) r a n g e of i n c o m e s ,  Feedback"  O n l y c u r s o r y e x p l a n a t i o n i s g i v e n the  since they are developed i n d e t a i l  Science Centre,  (hexagons)  subroutines are developed in detail since  developed earlier in this thesis.  of  considerations.  F i g u r e 8 r e l a t e s the s u b r o u t i n e s which comprise GIRLS.  the  G I R L S g e n e r a t e s a n u m b e r of f a m i l i e s w i t h a  d e s i r o u s of p u r c h a s i n g c o t t a g e l o t s o n the G u l f I s l a n d s .  To generate this demand,  three sub-processes,  or subroutines,  are involved.  SALE  PRICE  " DETERMINATION  SALES  AVERAGE SALE PRICES BY LAND CATEGORY  TAX  /  MORTGAGE  I  POLICIES  MORTGAGE  /  MODEL  a/  INITIAL ASKING PRICES BY LAND CATEGORY  BUYING POWER OF GROSS INCOME  BY RECREATIONAL  POPULATION & MEAN  INCOME  IN 1900  NUMBER _ N E W LOTS FOR S A L E REAPPQRTIONEL A M O N G LAND/ CLASSES  POPULATION S. E C O N O M I C GROWTH  ECOLOGICAL FEEDBACK  NUMBER OF\ LOTS  DEMAND  YEARLY REGIONAL POPULATION D E N S I T Y B> FAMILY SIZE " INCOME  / YEARLY ' D E M A N D BY > MAXIMUM 1 BIDDING \ PRICE  NEW S  CATEGORY/  AVERAGE  N U M B E R OF PEOPLE UNABLE TO BUY  ANNUAL REVENUE FROM S A L E S TAX  LAND AVAILABLE FOR SUBDIVISION,  SUBDIVISION  SIZE  -X  LAND QUALITIES QUANTITIES s| 1 9 0 0  UMBER OF LOTS LEFT UNSOLD BY LAND CATEGORY ANNUAL REVENUE FROM IPERTY T,  EVALUATION LAND  FOR  RECREATION  ON PROPERTY  LAND  LAND NEWLY , DEVELOPED  OF  TAXATION  AVAILABILITY  PROPERTY TAX  QUANTITY QUALITY  S OF  .UNOEVELOPEI LAND NUMBER OF OWNED FOR  F i g u r e 8.  / O W N E D LOTS BY A G E 4 LAND \ CATEGORY  a/  MARKET  LOTS  CATEGORY  AGING PROCESS  PROCESS  NUMBER OF LOTS FOR SALE BY LAND CATEGORY  BY  SOLD LAND  F l o w d i a g r a m of t h e G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r ( G I R L S ) .  LOTS  RESALE  PROBABILITY OF  RESALE  42 1.  The " P o p u l a t i o n and E c o n o m i c G r o w t h " subroutine h i s t o r i c a l c e n s u s f i g u r e s u n t i l 1961.  mimics  B e y o n d t h a t y e a r r a t e s of  p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h c a n be c h a n g e d at w i l l , b o o m s and d e p r e s s i o n s ,  so t h a t  pestilence or population explosions  can  be i n t r o d u c e d . 2.  T h e " M o r t g a g e M o d e l " p r o v i d e s o p p o r t u n i t y to m a n i p u l a t e i n t e r e s t r a t e s and a m o r t i z a t i o n p e r i o d s ,  h e n c e the m a x i m u m  p r i c e of p r o p e r t y a f a m i l y w i t h a s p e c i f i e d i n c o m e c a n  purchase.  It s i m p l y p r o v i d e s a n o p p o r t u n i t y to i n t r o d u c e o r r e m o v e  "tight  money" policies. 3.  The subroutine l a b e l l e d " R e c r e a t i o n a l D e m a n d " is  analogous  w i t h a s i e v e t h r o u g h w h i c h the p o p u l a t i o n i s s t r a i n e d to f i n d the number,  s i z e , a n d i n c o m e of f a m i l i e s w i s h i n g to p u r c h a s e  cottage l o t on the G u l f I s l a n d s .  The s i e v e ' s  m e s h is  a  adjustable  using income and f a m i l y size, which, i n combination with a prop o r t i o n a l i t y constant,  s p e c i f y t h o s e f a m i l i e s i n the m a r k e t f o r  Gulf Island property. S u p p l y of C o t t a g e Similarly,  Lots f o r e a c h y e a r G I R L S g e n e r a t e s a n u m b e r of p a r c e l s of G u l f  Island land for sale. 1.  Seven submodels or subroutines p e r f o r m this  The " A g i n g P r o c e s s "  task.  s i m p l y r e t u r n s e x i s t i n g l o t s to the  a c c o r d i n g to a n a g e - d e p e n d e n t  market  p r o b a b i l i t y w h i c h g r o w s to 1 o v e r  a 60-year period. 2.  " T a x a t i o n o n P r o p e r t y " a l l o w s t a x r a t e s to be i n c r e a s e d decreased,  3.  generating revenue for government  " P r o b a b i l i t y of R e s a l e "  or  services.  s i m p l y s p e e d s the r e t u r n of e x i s t i n g l o t s  to the m a r k e t w h e n p r o p e r t y t a x e s a r e h i g h . The t h r e e submodels above deal only with p a r c e l s a l r e a d y i n s e r v i c e  as  43  cottage sites.  T h e f o l l o w i n g f o u r a r e c o n c e r n e d w i t h the s u b d i v i s i o n of  " U n d e v e l o p e d " l a n d i n t o p a r c e l s s o l d to c o t t a g e r s . 4.  T h e s u b r o u t i n e l a b e l l e d " E v a l u a t i o n of L a n d f o r  Recreation"  d i v i d e s the l a n d a r e a s t u d i e d i n t o s e v e n q u a l i t y c l a s s e s .  Dif-  f e r e n t i a t i o n of q u a l i t i e s i s b a s e d o n the s l o p e of the t e r r a i n , d i s t a n c e to w a t e r ( l a k e o r o c e a n ) , a n d c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s the v e g e t a t i o n .  of  Thus, gently sloping waterfront property clothed  i n the A r b u t u s a n d s h o r e p i n e t y p i c a l of the r e g i o n , i s  more  d e s i r a b l e r e c r e a t i o n a l p r o p e r t y than a steep, n e a r l y t r e e l e s s , r o c k y h i l l s i d e s e v e r a l m i l e s f r o m the w a t e r f r o n t . 5.  " L a n d A v a i l a b i l i t y " calculates subdivision each year.  a n a m o u n t of l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r  A d e v e l o p e r ' s e f f o r t to b u y l a n d f o r s u b -  d i v i s i o n i s a s s u m e d to be p r o p o r t i o n a l to the s i z e of a n d t r e n d s in recent markets. successful.  B u t a t t e m p t s to p u r c h a s e a r e n o t a l w a y s  A s the a m o u n t of " U n d e v e l o p e d L a n d " d e c l i n e s ,  a v a i l a b i l i t y to d e v e l o p e r s a l s o 6.  its  declines.  " S u b d i v i s i o n " m i m i c s the p r o c e s s b y w h i c h a d e v e l o p e r l o o k s at lot p r i c e s ,  the s i z e of t h e m a r k e t ,  t h e a r e a a n d p r i c e of l a n d  a v a i l a b l e f o r s u b d i v i s i o n , and a n t i c i p a t e d d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s ( e q u a t i o n (21)).  T w o l e v e l s of d e v e l o p e r s o p h i s t i c a t i o n a r e  i n c l u d e d i n the s u b m o d e l .  The m o s t s o p h i s t i c a t e d buy  l o p e d l a n d and h o l d it for future development, l e s s w e l l financed d e v e l o p e r s can only buy,  undeve-  while smaller,  subdivide, and  m a r k e t i n the s a m e m a r k e t , p e r i o d . B o t h l a r g e a n d s m a l l d e v e l o p e r s p r o d u c e a s i z e a n d n u m b e r of l o t s w h i c h a r e e x p e c t e d to y i e l d a s p e c i f i e d m i n i m u m p r o f i t . T h a t m i n i m u m i s d e f i n e d a s a p r o p o r t i o n of the e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g price.  L o t s i z e i s d e t e r m i n e d by the p u r s u i t of t h i s m i n i m u m  profit,  g i v e n the d e m a n d a n d a m o u n t of l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r  division,  sub-  a n d m a y be c o n s t r a i n e d by a p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n w h i c h  44  s p e c i f i e s a s i z e b e l o w w h i c h l o t s c a n n o t be s u b d i v i d e d . A f l o w d i a g r a m ( F i g u r e 9) s e r v e s as a f o c u s f o r a m o r e d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n of the s u b r o u t i n e . L o o k i n g f i r s t at the l a s t m a r k e t , the h y p o t h e t i c a l d e v e l o p e r obs e r v e s t h e n u m b e r of l o t s s o l d a n d the r a t e of p r i c e  increase,  e s t i m a t i n g f o r e a c h l a n d q u a l i t y (I), the n u m b e r of l o t s w h i c h w i l l be s o l d i n the n e x t m a r k e t .  T h i s n u m b e r , r e c e i v e d f r o m the p r e -  v i o u s s u b r o u t i n e , i s D M A N D (I). quality class  If no d e m a n d i s a n t i c i p a t e d i n  (I), no d e v e l o p m e n t t a k e s p l a c e . If a d e m a n d i s  a n t i c i p a t e d , the d e v e l o p e r s e t s D M A N D (I) e q u a l to W N , the i n i t i a l n u m b e r of l o t s he e x p e c t s to p r o d u c e , a n d a s k s w h a t p r i c e he m u s t pay for undeveloped l a n d .  T h a t p r i c e ( X X B ) i s a s s u m e d to  r i s e a n d f a l l at h a l f t h e r a t e of c h a n g e i n c o t t a g e l o t p r i c e s d u r i n g the l a s t t w o m a r k e t p e r i o d s . F r o m a p r e v i o u s e x a m i n a t i o n of the m a r k e t f o r u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d , ("Land Availability"),  the d e v e l o p e r " k n o w s " t h a t A V L N D  (I)  a c r e s of q u a l i t y (I) l a n d a r e f o r s a l e if he s h o u l d d e c i d e to b u y them.  If t h e r e a r e a n y l a r g e - s c a l e  developers involved,  then  a n a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e of l a n d f o r d e v e l o p m e n t r e s i d e s i n H O L D (I),  the n u m b e r of a c r e s of q u a l i t y (I) l a n d w h i c h t h e y b o u g h t  previously. (XG)  A n i n i t i a l a m o u n t of l a n d a v a i l a b l e f o r s u b d i v i s i o n  is therefore  established.  W i t h the n u m b e r of l o t s to be p r o d u c e d (WN) a n d the l a n d a r e a a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e i r p r o d u c t i o n ( X G ) , the h y p o t h e t i c a l d e v e l o p e r t h e n c a l c u l a t e s the s i z e (WS) of t h e s e p r o p o s e d l o t s u s i n g e q u a t i o n (16).  If the l o t s i z e (WS) i s e q u a l to o r g r e a t e r t h a n the  m i n i m u m size p e r m i t t e d by g o v e r n m e n t p o l i c y ( S Z M I N ) , p r o f i t a n t i c i p a t e d f r o m the p r o p o s e d v e n t u r e ( T P R O F ) i s c a l c u l a t e d as the d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t o t a l c o s t ( e q u a t i o n (21)) revenue ( T R E V ) .  and expected  T o t a l r e v e n u e ( T R E V ) i s s i m p l y the p r o d u c t  of e x p e c t e d d e m a n d (WN) a n d e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g p r i c e ( X R ) .  SUBROUTINE SUTiDV S u b d i v i s i o n Subroutine | D G C  9, 19701  initialization XL = (XXL -XT) / 30. P = .6931 / (XXP - XXM) XR = SAL{I) XK = XXK * XR XK / (10.*XP*EXP(XP*XXM)) /land  classes\  no demand—no  dovelopment  determine p r i c e p e r acre of land t o d e v e l o p e r s XXB(I) = XXB(I) * (1. * ZLOTS (I) / UNDV (I) ) XX B (I) £ AGR1 XB = XX B(I)  add 10% of h o l d i n g s — a l l l a r g e s c a l e developers now XG = -1 * HOLD (I) HOLD(I) ,= HOLD(I) - XG BIG (I) = 1. K = 1 SUMAL = XG have added some h o l d i n g s o r reduce the number o f l o t s s u p p l i e d — determine new l o t s i z e  determine l o t s i WS = XG / WM  i n s u f f i c i e n t i r o f i t —reduce l o t s i z e by 10% WS = 9 • WS -  determine t o t a l cost o f development and expected p r o f i t TREV = WN * XR [•COST = XB*WS*WN+XK*WN* (l.+XI,/(WS-XT) ) + XM* (EXP(XP*WN)-1.) TPROF = TREV-TC0ST  reduce number o f l o t s s u p p l i e d by 10  add a d d i t i o n a l land K - 1 BIG(I) = (BIG(I)*XG+ ADLND)/(XG+ADLN0) XG = XG + ADLND HOLD(I) = HOLD(l) - ADLND SUMAL = SUMAL + ADLND development p r o f i t a b l e DLOTS(I) = WN ASIZE(I) = WS ZL0TS (I) = WN_*_ WS  no no h o l d i n g s were a d d e d — used a v a i l a b l e land o n l y  they buy up a p r o p o r t i o n o f any excess land XSLND = BIG(I)*(AVLND(I)-XG) XSLND i 0. HOLD{I) = HOLD(I)+XSLND UNDV(I? = UNDV(I)-XSLN0  profit— development  h o l d i n g s were a d d e d — i . e . , used a l l a v a i l a b l e land UNDV (I) = UNDV f l ) -AVLND(I) h o l d i n g s were added — r e t u r n them to developers BIG(I) = (BIG(I)'XGSUMAL)/(XG-SUMAL) HOLD(I) = HOLDCD+SUMAL  any land put on the market from h o l d i n g s and then not used i s returned t o the h o l d i n g s XSLND = XG - WN * WS XSLND * 0. HOLD (I) = HOLD f I) +XSLND  L  no development DLOTS (I) = 0. ASIZE(I) = 0. ZLOTS (I ) = 0.  end o f land c l a s s loop  ure 9.  F l o w d i a g r a m of t h e " S u b d i v i s i o n " p r o c e s s .  Z  46 T h e m i n i m u m p r o f i t w h i c h w i l l p r o m p t d e v e l o p e r s to s u b d i v i d e ( P R M I N ) i s c a l c u l a t e d a s a p r o p o r t i o n ( E X P R ) of a n t i c i p a t e d total revenue ( T R E V ) .  If the d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n c o s t s a n d  r e v e n u e ( T P R O F ) i s e q u a l to o r g r e a t e r t h a n the m i n i m u m r e q u i r e d f o r s u b d i v i s i o n to o c c u r ( P R M I N ) , s u b d i v i s i o n t a k e s p l a c e a n d the r e m a i n d e r of the s u b r o u t i n e p e r f o r m s the b o o k keeping chores.  If,  however,  there is insufficient profit,  lot  s i z e i s r e d u c e d 10 p e r c e n t a n d t h e a n t i c i p a t e d p r o f i t r e c a l c u l a t e d . This process occurs,  of l o t s i z e r e d u c t i o n c o n t i n u e s u n t i l s u b d i v i s i o n  o r u n t i l l o t s i z e f a l l s b e l o w the p o l i c y m i n i m u m .  I n the e v e n t t h a t l o t s i z e b e c o m e s too s m a l l , with land holdings are operating,  and b i g d e v e l o p e r s  the a m o u n t of l a n d a v a i l a b l e  f o r s u b d i v i s i o n (XG) i s i n c r e a s e d and the p r o c e s s c u l a t i o n and s i z e r e d u c t i o n is r e p e a t e d .  W h e n the  d e v e l o p e r s ' h o l d i n g s h a v e t h u s b e e n d i s p o s e d of, s u b d i v i s i o n has taken place, option is not i n use,  of p r o f i t c a l large a n d s t i l l no  o r i n the event the l a r g e  speculator  the n u m b e r of l o t s to be p r o d u c e d (WN) i s  r e d u c e d b y t e n p e r c e n t a n d the p r o c e s s  of p r o f i t c a l c u l a t i o n a n d  lot s i z e r e d u c t i o n r e p e a t e d yet a g a i n . B y r e d u c i n g the s i z e a n d n u m b e r of l o t s to be d e v e l o p e d i n response  to the c o m b i n e d f o r c e s of m a r k e t p r i c e ,  c o s t s and p r o f i t e x p e c t a t i o n ,  development  the s t a g e i s set f o r s i m u l a t e d  d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y .  While this  subroutine,  l i k e that f o l l o w i n g and a l l o t h e r s i n G I R L S , p r e s e n t s simple,  a terribly  s u s p e c t v i e w of the p r o c e s s e s i t i s s u p p o s e d to d e s c r i b e ,  i t i m p r o v e s u p o n the " s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d " c l i c h e ,  if only b e c a u s e  i t r e m a i n s s u s p e c t a f t e r m o v i n g t h r o u g h one l e v e l of c o m p l e x i t y a n d f r o m the s t a t i c to d y n a m i c s i t u a t i o n . 7.  The " E c o l o g i c a l F e e d b a c k " of m a n y p a r t s .  submodel is conceptually  comprised  O n l y o n e , ' the i m p a c t of s m a l l l o t s u b d i v i s i o n o n  47 q u a l i t y i s i n c l u d e d i n t h i s v e r s i o n of G I R L S . Feedback",  therefore,  "Ecological  s i m p l y r e v i s e s the r e c r e a t i o n a l q u a l i t y  of n e w l y s u b d i v i d e d p a r c e l s a c c o r d i n g to the l o t s i z e subjective preference  class-  relationship developed e a r l i e r .  A flow  d i a g r a m of t h e s u b r o u t i n e ( F i g u r e 10) p u n c t u a t e s t h i s s i m p l i c i t y . T h e q u a l i t y c l a s s (I) of n e w l y s u b d i v i d e d l o t s ( D L O T S (I) ) i s d e c r e a s e d i f t h o s e l o t s a r e s m a l l e r t h a n 1.7 a c r e s (see p a g e in market price section).  T h e n u m b e r of q u a l i t y c l a s s e s  34  lost  e q u a l s the n u m b e r of s i z e c l a s s e s t h r o u g h w h i c h the l o t s h a v e moved,  b u t i n no c a s e d o e s the q u a l i t y d r o p b e l o w c l a s s  six.  B y r e d u c i n g the q u a l i t y c l a s s of l o t s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o s m a l l s i z e s , the m a r k e t i n w h i c h they a r e s o l d c h a n g e s .  That is, within  G I R L S t h e r e a r e s e v e n m a r k e t s i n e a c h m a r k e t p e r i o d , one f o r e a c h q u a l i t y of l a n d . therefore, change.  L o t s which suffer a quality r e d u c t i o n w i l l ,  i n c u r a p r i c e r e d u c t i o n a s w e l l b e c a u s e of the  This consequence  c e i v e d by d e v e l o p e r s ,  market  reflects in market information r e -  h e n c e t h e i r a s s e s s m e n t of the n e x t  market period. As  stated p r e v i o u s l y , t h i s and a l l G I R L S s u b r o u t i n e s are t e r r i b l y  s i m p l e d e s c r i p t i o n s of c o m p l i c a t e d p r o c e s s e s .  T h e e x t e n t of  r e d u c t i o n s i n q u a l i t y due to l o t s m a l l n e s s m a y be e x c e s s i v e conservative.  M u c h m o r e e x p e r i m e n t a l w o r k w i l l be  or  necessary  t o v e r i f y r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n d e t e r m i n a n t s of q u a l i t y a f t e r t h e i r identities have been d e t e r m i n e d .  I n t e r a c t i o n of S u p p l y a n d D e m a n d H a v i n g g e n e r a t e d a n u m b e r of l o t s a n d a d e m a n d f o r t h e m ,  the  sub-  r o u t i n e l a b e l l e d " S a l e P r i c e D e t e r m i n a t i o n " c a l c u l a t e s an i n i t i a l or " a s k i n g " p r i c e for lots each year. past three years  C a l c u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d on p r i c e t r e n d s o v e r the  ( m a r k e t p e r i o d s ) a n d a c o n s t a n t w h i c h i n d i c a t e s the  degree  SUBROUTINE PRVCY E c o l o g i c a l Feedback Subroutine Dec. 9, 1970  land c l a s s e s I = 1,7  1  i n i t i a l i z e temporary a r r a y TEMP (I) = 0. /land  A  t o zero  classes\  I =,1,7  /  XNUM = DLOTS(I) skip ecological feedback process  NO  AVSIZ = A S I Z E ( I ) size classes J = 1,6 l o o p from s m a l l e s t s i z e upwards u n t i l c o r r e c t one r e a c h e d JJ = 8 -J  YES  (CONTINUE)  size class JJ—determine r e s u l t a n t land c l a s s II = I + J J - 1 II 6 6  top s i z e c l a s s — n o change i n l a n d c l a s s TEMP (I) = TEMP(I) +XNUM  move l o t s i n t o t h i s land c l a s s TEMP ( I I ) = TEMP ( I I ) +XNUM  -(CONTINUE)  'land c l a s s e s \ I =1,7 /' N  r e d i s t r i b u t e l o t s by r e s u l t a n t land c l a s s DLOTS(I) = TEMP (I) TUI F i g u r e 10.  F l o w d i a g r a m , of the o n e c o m p o n e n t of " E c o l o g i c a l now included in G I R L S .  Feedback"  49 of o p t i m i s m a m o n g d e v e l o p e r s .  The subroutine labelled " M a r k e t  Process"  t h e n r e c e i v e s t h r e e p i e c e s of i n f o r m a t i o n : 1.  initial asking price;  2.  the d e m a n d f o r c o t t a g e l o t s (a v e c t o r of the n u m b e r of ' b u y e r s b y p r i c e of p r o p e r t y t h e y a r e a b l e to b u y ) ; a n d ,  3.  the s u p p l y of c o t t a g e l o t s (a v e c t o r of the n u m b e r of l o t s by q u a l i t y c a t e g o r y ) .  P r o c e e d i n g f r o m h i g h e s t to l o w e s t q u a l i t y l o t s , demand.  supply is compared with  A t each c o m p a r i s o n three situations can o c c u r .  These  situations  a n d s u b s e q u e n t a c t i o n of the " M a r k e t P r o c e s s " a r e as f o l l o w s : (a)  When e x p r e s s e d demand exceeds supply, there are fewer t h a n b u y e r s a b l e to p a y the i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e . sold on a " f i r s t come, f i r s t s e r v e " b a s i s . of l o t s  s o l d to e a c h  income  category  lots  Lots are then  T h a t i s , the n u m b e r  i s p r o p o r t i o n a l to  the  n u m b e r of b i d d e r s t h e r e i n . (b)  W h e n d e m a n d e q u a l s s u p p l y , t h e r e a r e e q u a l n u m b e r s of l o t s a n d b u y e r s a b l e to p a y the p r i c e s a s k e d .  The i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e  therefore  a n d l o t s a r e s o l d to a l l  b e c o m e s the m a r k e t p r i c e ,  bidders. (c)  W h e n supply exceeds demand, there are m o r e lots than buyers a b l e to p a y the i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e .  In t h i s e v e n t ,  to t h o s e b i d d i n g the i n i t i a l a s k i n g p r i c e , and m o r e lots s o l d .  lots are sold  w h i c h is then l o w e r e d  This process is repeated until all lots  are  s o l d o r u n t i l the p r i c e d r o p s to a f l o o r ( h a l f the s e l l i n g p r i c e two y e a r s before),  b e l o w w h i c h no one w i l l s e l l .  u n s o l d l o t s a r e c a r r i e d f o r w a r d to n e x t y e a r ' s T h i s v i e w of the m a r k e t ,  In t h i s event,  market.  although o v e r s i m p l i f i e d , provides a convenient  m e e t i n g p l a c e f o r c o t t a g e l o t s a n d b u y e r s g e n e r a t e d i n the o t h e r  submodels.  50 Simulation Models A l t h o u g h i t s r e s e m b l a n c e w i t h the r e a l w o r l d i s o n l y a n e c d o t a l ,  the  G u l f I s l a n d s R e c r e a t i o n a l L a n d S i m u l a t o r i s a u s e f u l t o o l w i t h w h i c h to e x p l o r e t h e e f f e c t s of c h a n g e . change on another, of the s y s t e m .  B y a l l o w i n g one c o m p o n e n t to c h a n g e ,  or by i m p o s i n g  we c a n s e e h o w s u c h c h a n g e s m i g h t a f f e c t y e t o t h e r  parts  I n t h i s w a y , s i m u l a t i o n s t u d i e s c a n a i d the p r o c e s s of a n t i c i -  pation. H e r e l i e s the g r e a t s t r e n g t h of s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l s a n d t h e i r p r o p e n s i t y for abuse.  So l o n g a s i t i s r e c o g n i z e d t h a t p r e d i c t i o n s a r e m a d e o n l y f o r  t h o s e p a r t s o f the  s y s t e m the b u i l d e r h a s c h o s e n to i n c l u d e i n h i s m o d e l ,  the i n t e r a c t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e s e and the e x c l u d e d p a r t s a r e t h e r e f o r e and that because caricatures,  that  absent,  the m o d e l i s i n c o m p l e t e a n d c o m p r i s e d of m a t h e m a t i c a l  p r e d i c t i o n s of m a g n i t u d e a r e h i g h l y s u s p e c t ,  s i m u l a t i o n studies  c a n a i d the a n t i c i p a t i o n of the e f f e c t s of n a t u r a l o r i n d u c e d c h a n g e .  If m u c h  c r e d i b i l i t y i s g i v e n the p r e d i c t e d t i m e of a p p e a r a n c e a n d m a g n i t u d e of t h e s e effects, arise.  the d a n g e r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h b e l i e f i n a n y f a l s e h o o d o r h a l f t r u t h W i t h t h i s c a u t i o n a r y note f i r m l y made,  a t t e n t i o n c a n b e d i v e r t e d to t h e  r e a l v a l u e of the m o d e l , the p r e d i c t i o n of t r e n d s g i v e n d i f f e r e n t p o l i c i e s . A l i s t i n g of G I R L S , i n c l u d i n g p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s , A p p e n d i x III.  m a y be f o u n d i n  M o r e p e r t i n e n t h e r e i s the g r a p h i c a l o u t p u t s h o w n i n F i g u r e 1 1 .  T h e a b s c i s s a of a l l t h r e e g r a p h s i s t i m e a n d r e p r e s e n t s the i n t e r v a l 1900 2000.  -  O n the u p p e r m o s t g r a p h the p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l l a n d a r e a t h a t h a s  b e e n d e v e l o p e d i s p l o t t e d f o r e a c h of f o u r q u a l i t y c l a s s e s . c l a s s e s s e r v e s o n l y to c l u t t e r the d i a g r a m . )  ( P l o t t i n g the  other  T h e r e m a i n i n g l o c u s on the  u p p e r g r a p h ( w i t h d a t a p o i n t s p l o t t e d ) r e p r e s e n t s the p r o p o r t i o n of c o t t a g e b u y e r s u n a b l e to f i n d a s u i t a b l e p u r c h a s e i n s p i t e of t h e i r a b i l i t y to p a y .  lot The  a r e a of l a n d d e v e l o p e d i n e a c h q u a l i t y c l a s s e a c h y e a r i s p l o t t e d on the c e n t r a l graph,  a n d on the l o w e s t ,  the p r i c e of l o t s i n e a c h of the f o u r q u a l i t y c l a s s e s .  4 OQ P CD  PRICE (SUMO)  Gr Sir P  p  TS tr »—'  p r> o J" i—• rt-  o  o  p rtT3  rt(T>  O  <;  P rt-  rt-  n> tr rt-  O to  0  P l-h  1—l cn i—•  P  Cu w  to CD O  n > P rtt^-  O  P  i—•  tr p a  DEVQJPVfM  52 Graphical Representation  of Q u a l i t y  I n d e v e l o p i n g the m e a s u r e the l o w e r g r a p h of F i g u r e 11, 1.  of q u a l i t y t r a c e d b y the r e m a i n i n g l o c u s on  three notions are r e q u i r e d :  I n the c o n t e x t of G I R L S ,  the q u a l i t y of the s y s t e m at a n y t i m e  c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e " q u a l i t y a r e a " t h e r e i n . in Table VIII,  A s shown  t h i s m e a s u r e i s s i m p l y the s u m of the p r o d u c t s  of w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r s a n d a r e a s of l a n d i n e a c h q u a l i t y c l a s s . F i r s t q u a l i t y l a n d i s g i v e n t w i c e the w e i g h t of s e c o n d q u a l i t y land,  t h r e e t i m e s t h a t of t h i r d q u a l i t y l a n d , a n d so o n .  Weighting factors reverse  order.  a r e t h e r e f o r e the q u a l i t y c l a s s n u m b e r s i n  Since quality is lost (within GIRLS)  according  to the n u m b e r of s i z e c l a s s e s t h r o u g h w h i c h a p a r c e l and s i z e c l a s s i n t e r v a l s r e p r e s e n t equal p r e f e r e n c e  moves, intervals,  such a weighting seems justified. 2.  T h e t o t a l q u a l i t y of the s y s t e m m a y be d i v i d e d i n t w o p a r t s .  The  f i r s t i s t h a t p o r t i o n of t h e t o t a l w h i c h h a s b e e n d e v e l o p e d ( s e q u e s t e r e d by i n d i v i d u a l f a m i l i e s ) and i s a m e a s u r e in direct use.  of q u a l i t y  T h e s e c o n d is t h a t p o r t i o n of the t o t a l w h i c h 1  r e m a i n s undeveloped and is a m e a s u r e  of the c a p a c i t y of the  s y s t e m to a b s o r b o r " b o u n c e b a c k " f r o m q u a l i t y l o s s e s r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s . 3.  T o t a l q u a l i t y a n d e a c h of i t s p a r t s a r e s u b j e c t to  Several "barometers" apparent.  w i t h w h i c h to m o n i t o r the s y s t e m ' s  T h e f i r s t p o s s i b i l i t y w h i c h s p r i n g s to m i n d ,  appropriate for three reasons. perceive differences, an e a r l i e r section.  change. quality are  t o t a l q u a l i t y , i s not  The f i r s t and m o s t i m p o r t a n t is that  not t o t a l q u a n t i t i e s ,  people  an a s s e r t i o n a m p l y supported by  T h e s e c o n d a n d t h i r d r e a s o n s c o n c e r n the l a r g e r  of h i g h e s t q u a l i t y l a n d w h i c h a r e d e v e l o p e d e a r l y i n the h i s t o r y of the  parcels system.  M u c h of the t o t a l q u a l i t y i s c o n t a i n e d i n t h e s e p a r c e l s w h i c h , i n r e a l i t y ,  are  53 TABLE  VIII.  (1) Land Class  Calculation in time.  of the " q u a l i t y a r e a " i n a s y s t e m at one p o i n t  (2)  (3)  A r e a (acres)  Weighting factor  (2) x (3)  1  1000  7  7000  2  2000  6  12000  3  9000  5  45000  4  1000  4  4000  5  1000  3  3000  6  1000  2  2000  7  1000  1  1000  Total "quality a r e a "  74000  54  r e t u r n e d to s u b d i v i d e r s m o r e s l o w l y t h a n " u n d e v e l o p e d " l a n d . act as a buffer,  or d e l a y i n g m e c h a n i s m ,  W i t h i n G I R L S , the d e l a y i s c o m p l e t e . r e t u r n e d to d e v e l o p e r s .  therefore  i n the d e g r a d a t i o n of t o t a l q u a l i t y .  Once developed,  p a r c e l s are  never  Such r e c y c l i n g would r e q u i r e computing facilities  l a r g e r t h a n t h o s e a v a i l a b l e ( I B M 1130) the m o d e l .  They  a n d w o u l d a d d l i t t l e of c o n s e q u e n c e to  P e o p l e p e r c e i v e and evaluate d i f f e r e n c e s .  R a t e s of c h a n g e  t h a n t o t a l a m o u n t s a r e t h e r e f o r e the a p p r o p r i a t e m e a s u r e s  rather  of q u a l i t y .  Suppose some land area A is subdivided in a given year.  Depending  u p o n the l a n d c l a s s e s f r o m w h i c h A i s d r a w n , i t s u n d e v e l o p e d q u a l i t y c a n be c a l c u l a t e d (as i n T a b l e VIII) a n d e x p r e s s e d as the q u a l i t y - a r e a d e v e l o p e d (QAD) i n that y e a r .  If,  a f t e r s u b d i v i s i o n , s o m e of t h a t q u a l i t y i s l o s t b e c a u s e  l o t s p r o d u c e d a r e t o o s m a l l , the q u a l i t y l o s t c a n a l s o be c a l c u l a t e d a n d expressed  as q u a l i t y a r e a l o s t ( Q A L ) .  T h e n the p r o p o r t i o n P  of the  u n d e v e l o p e d q u a l i t y of A , w h i c h i s r e t a i n e d a f t e r s u b d i v i s i o n , i s _  QAD - Q A L QAD  W h i l e the a b o v e p r o p o r t i o n i s i m p o r t a n t ,  alone it is insufficient.  E a r l y i n the d e v e l o p m e n t of a r e g i o n s m a l l l o t s a r e p r o d u c e d , b u t t h e s e " e r r o r s " w o u l d ( i n t u i t i v e l y ) h a v e m i n i m a l i m p a c t o n the w h o l e s y s t e m . m o r e a n d m o r e of t h e r e g i o n i s d e v e l o p e d ,  As  i t s r e s i l i e n c e o r c a p a c i t y to  a b s o r b q u a l i t y l o s s e s i s d i m i n i s h e d . S m a l l l o t s p r o d u c e d l a t e i n the h i s t o r y of d e v e l o p m e n t h a v e m u c h g r e a t e r i m p a c t t h a n t h o s e p r o d u c e d e a r l i e r . proportion P should therefore  be m o d i f i e d b y s o m e m e a s u r e  the c h a n g i n g r e s i l i e n c e of the  system.  N o t e t h a t the p r o p o r t i o n P i s r e l a t e d to the i n s t a n t a n e o u s q u a l i t y , r , as f o l l o w s : P  =  1 - r  where r  -  QAL QAD  The  which reflects  r a t e of c h a n g e i n  55 C o n s i d e r the l a n d a r e a w h i c h r e m a i n s u n d e v e l o p e d at the s t a r t of the given year.  Its q u a l i t y a r e a i s a m e a s u r e  of the s y s t e m ' s  resilience  (page  52),  s o m e p a r t of w h i c h ( Q A D ) i s w i t h d r a w n f o r d e v e l o p m e n t that y e a r .  T h e n the  p r o p o r t i o n R of the u n d e v e l o p e d q u a l i t y a r e a ( Q A R ) w h i c h r e m a i n s  unseques-  t e r e d at the y e a r e n d  is _ "  R  QAR - QAD QAR  ( 2 5 )  T h e q u a l i t y i m p a c t l i n e ( F i g u r e 11) r e p r e s e n t s tions P and R,  the p r o d u c t of t h e t w o p r o p o r -  a n d i s p l o t t e d on a n o r d i n a t e s c a l e d f r o m z e r o (at the o r i g i n )  to one (at $ 7 4 , 0 0 0 ) .  GIRLS Validity H a v i n g m a n u f a c t u r e d G I R L S a n d o b t a i n e d the b a s i c o u t p u t s h o w n i n F i g u r e 11,  the f i r s t q u e s t i o n c o n c e r n s the a c c u r a c y w i t h w h i c h the m o d e l  m i m i c s actual trends. should m i m i c .  F i g u r e 7 r e v e a l s the t w o t r e n d s w h i c h the m o d e l  F i r s t , the s h i f t i n g p a r c e l s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n i m p l i e s t h a t  a n d s m a l l e r p a r c e l s of l a n d a r e s u b d i v i d e d t h r o u g h t i m e . increase  Secondly,  a n d p r i c e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n s i z e c l a s s e s i n c r e a s e to  B e c a u s e of the l i n k b e t w e e n p a r c e l s i z e a n d q u a l i t y , t r e n d i n G I R L S m a y be s e e n as d e p r e s s i o n s F i g u r e 11.  While prices increase  ( F i g u r e s 7 a n d 11),  smaller  prices  1970.  e v i d e n c e of the f i r s t  i n the q u a l i t y i m p a c t l i n e of  more r a p i d l y i n G I R L S than i n r e a l i t y  the c o r r e c t t r e n d i s c e r t a i n l y p r e s e n t i n the m o d e l a n d , i f  o n e t a k e s i m a g i n a r y c r o s s s e c t i o n s t h r o u g h the l o w e s t g r a p h i n F i g u r e t h e r e i s , b e t w e e n 1900 different qualities. should, to the  a n d 1970,  11,  a n i n c r e a s i n g s p r e a d i n p r i c e s of l o t s of  W h i l e m a g n i t u d e s r e m a i n i n q u e s t i o n as I t h i n k they  G I R L S d o e s m i m i c the d i r e c t i o n of s h i f t s i n p r i c e a n d p a r c e l  size  present.  B e c a u s e the s u p p l y of l a n d w i t h i n the G u l f I s l a n d s i s f i n i t e , m o d e l p r o v i d e s f o r a l i m i t e d r a n g e of p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n s , p o s e d at the e n d of the l a s t s e c t i o n m u s t be r e c a s t .  the  a n d the  questions  They therefore  become:  56 1.  Is the s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s ,  h e n c e the d e g r a d a t i o n of  e n v i r o n m e n t a l quality, d i s c o u r a g e d by a g r o w i n g , or d e c l i n i n g d e m a n d for cottage lots? G I R L S a n d F i g u r e 8,  constant,  W i t h r e f e r e n c e to  the q u e s t i o n b e c o m e s m o r e  specific.  W h a t m a n i p u l a t i o n s of p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h d i s c o u r a g e the d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y ? 2.  W h i c h of the f o l l o w i n g p o l i c i e s c a n be u s e d to  discourage  the s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s (and c o n s e q u e n t  degradation  of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y ) , a n d w h a t o t h e r e f f e c t s c a n be a n t i c i p a t e d if they w e r e  used?  (i)  T h e m a n i p u l a t i o n of m o r t g a g e  interest  rates.  (ii)  T h e i m p o s i t i o n of a s a l e s t a x o n c o t t a g e l o t s .  (iii)  T h e m a n i p u l a t i o n of p r o p e r t y t a x e s .  (iv)  T h e i m p o s i t i o n of a m i n i m u m l o t s i z e .  B e c a u s e the p r i n c i p a l f o c u s of t h i s t h e s i s h a s b e e n the i m p a c t of a shifting lot size d i s t r i b u t i o n upon e n v i r o n m e n t a l quality, f i r s t attention was g i v e n to t h a t e f f e c t w h e n m a k i n g a n d i n t e r p r e t i n g v a r i o u s i n t e r v e n t i o n s .  But  e q u a l e m p h a s i s m u s t be g i v e n t h e e c o n o m i c a n d s o c i a l c o n s e q u e n c e s of v a r i o u s p o l i c i e s as r e f l e c t e d b y p r i c e s a n d the p r o p o r t i o n of b u y e r s (uppermost graph) r e s p e c t i v e l y .  unsatisfied  Because there is a sustained depression in  the q u a l i t y i m p a c t l o c u s f r o m a b o u t 1950  ( F i g u r e 11),  a n d the c o u r s e of e v e n t s  l a t e i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of the s y s t e m a r e of g r e a t e s t i n t e r e s t ,  all interven-  t i o n s w e r e m a d e at the e n d of t h e 1965 m a r k e t p e r i o d . A s h a s b e e n the c a s e t h r o u g h o u t d i s c u s s i o n s of G I R L S , the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s w h i c h f o l l o w r e f e r to the m o d e l and its i n t e r n a l w o r k i n g s . with reality occur,  W h e r e o b v i o u s d e f i c i e n c i e s i n the  analogy  t h e y m u s t be i n t e r p r e t e d a s j u s t s u c h d e f i c i e n c i e s a n d n o t  s t a t e m e n t s about r e a l i t y .  57 Simulation Studies F i g u r e s 12 t h r o u g h 20 s h o w the r e s u l t s of the s i m u l a t e d d e v e l o p m e n t of the G u l f I s l a n d s w i t h i n t e r v e n t i o n s of v a r i o u s k i n d s .  F o r convenient  p a r i s o n e a c h F i g u r e a l s o d i s p l a y s the u n i n t e r r u p t e d o u t p u t . s e a r c h i n g t h r o u g h text and F i g u r e s ,  com-  To m i n i m i z e  a l l F i g u r e s a r e g r o u p e d at the e n d of  this discussion. C o n s i d e r q u e s t i o n one,  above,  a n d the e f f e c t of a r e d u c e d r a t e of  p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h o n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of the G u l f I s l a n d s . s e n t s the G I R L S o u t p u t u n d e r s u c h c i r c u m s t a n c e s . p o r t i o n of u n s a t i s f i e d b u y e r s a l r e a d y p r e s e n t ,  F i g u r e 12  repre-  B e c a u s e of t h e l a r g e p r o -  the s u b d i v i s i o n of s m a l l l o t s  c o n t i n u e s a s d o e s t h e s u s t a i n e d d e p r e s s i o n of q u a l i t y .  Prices,  however,  rise  m o r e s l o w l y a n d the p e r c e n t a g e of u n s a t i s f i e d b u y e r s i s s l i g h t l y l o w e r t h a n i n the u n i n t e r r u p t e d r u n .  T h e i n c r e a s e d r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h s i m u l a t e d  i n F i g u r e 13 r e v e a l s a m o r e s e v e r e l y d e p r e s s e d q u a l i t y , h i g h e r p r i c e s ,  and  more unsatisfied buyers. T h e i n f l u e n c e of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h u p o n q u a l i t y a p p e a r s to be e v e n m o r e d r a m a t i c t h a n t h a t of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h .  A r e d u c t i o n i n t h e r a t e of  e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m t h r e e to one p e r c e n t ( F i g u r e 14) e a s e s the d e p r e s s i o n of q u a l i t y , a n d p r i c e s i n c r e a s e  more slowly.  sustained  Both these events  a r e the c o n s e q u e n c e of a r e d u c t i o n i n the n u m b e r of p e o p l e a b l e to b u y , t r e n d r e f l e c t e d i n t h e p e r c e n t a g e of b u y e r s u n s a t i s f i e d . e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i s i n c r e a s e d ( F i g u r e 15), and p r i c e s  a  W h e n the r a t e of  quality is most severely  depressed  skyrocket.  P e r h a p s m o r e i n t e r e s t i n g than any other i n t e r v e n t i o n i s that s h o w n i n F i g u r e 16,  where both e c o n o m i c and population g r o w t h w e r e e l i m i n a t e d .  B e c a u s e the r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p s m o r e s l o w l y u n d e r t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s , t a i n e d d e p r e s s i o n of q u a l i t y i s r e p l a c e d w i t h the l a r g e characteristic duced,  of e a r l y d e v e l o p m e n t .  That is,  the  sus-  oscillations  although s m a l l lots are  t h e i r r a t e of p r o d u c t i o n i s c o m p a r a t i v e l y l o w , h e n c e the r a t e of  prochange  58 in quality is also low.  T h e c o m p a r a t i v e r e s i l i e n c e of q u a l i t y i s m a i n t a i n e d so  that t h e r e i s r e c o v e r y .  The s y s t e m can "bounce back".  A c c o m p a n y i n g the  a b o v e e v e n t s i s a p r i c e r e d u c t i o n a n d g r a d u a l r e d u c t i o n i n the p e r c e n t a g e u n s a t i s f i e d b u y e r s i n the m a r k e t , p e o p l e to b e i m p o r t a n t . g r o w t h to z e r o , c a n be a c h i e v e d ,  a m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t t r e n d if one  of  considers  B y r e d u c i n g the r a t e s of p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c  the m a i n t e n a n c e  of q u a l i t y a n d s a t i s f a c t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n  a conclusion in direct contradiction with popular belief.  T h e i n t e r v e n t i o n s r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e s 17 t h r o u g h to a n s w e r the s e c o n d q u e s t i o n a s k e d e a r l i e r .  30 w e r e  made  Governments can manipulate  the supply and apparent d e m a n d for a p a r t i c u l a r r e s o u r c e t h r o u g h m o n e t a r y , tax,  and r e s o u r c e d e v e l o p m e n t p o l i c i e s .  ( F i g u r e 17) s a l e s tax,  effectively increases therefore,  T h e i m p o s i t i o n of a s a l e s t a x  the p r i c e a b u y e r m u s t pay for a l o t .  s i m p l y r e d u c e s the n u m b e r of b u y e r s i n the  A  market,  b u t w i t h the l a r g e n u m b e r a l r e a d y t h e r e a n d c o n t i n u e d g r o w t h , the l o n g - r u n e f f e c t of a s a l e s t a x i s n e g l i g i b l e . by i n c r e a s i n g interest rates,  T h e n u m b e r of b u y e r s c a n a l s o be r e d u c e d  a n e v e n t s i m u l a t e d i n F i g u r e 18.  r e d u c t i o n i n t h e d e g r a d a t i o n of q u a l i t y i s m o m e n t a r y at b e s t . outcome is essentially unchanged.  Again,  any  The eventual  '  T h e i m p o s i t i o n of a p r o p e r t y t a x w i t h i n the m o d e l s i m p l y h a s t e n s the r e c y c l i n g of l o t s i n u s e .  That is,  a p r o p e r t y tax,  w i t h i n G I R L S , is a t o o l by  w h i c h s u p p l y c a n be m a n i p u l a t e d . Its u s e ( F i g u r e 19) i n c r e a s e s q u a l i t y d e g r a d a t i o n and l o w e r s p r i c e s .  A possible explanation for this unusual  c o m b i n a t i o n of e f f e c t s i s t h a t l o w e r e d p r i c e s , r e c y c l i n g of p r o p e r t i e s ,  the r a t e of  t h e r e s u l t of a m o r e  b r i n g a s u m m e r h o m e s i t e w i t h i n the r e a c h of a  l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of the p o p u l a t i o n . In r e s p o n s e to t h i s i n c r e a s e d size,  rapid  developers quickly produce more,  therefore  s m a l l e r lots,  market  which  exert  m o r e p r e s s u r e on e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . O n l y the i m p o s i t i o n of a m i n i m u m l o t s i z e ,  F i g u r e 20,  prevides  n e a r l y c o m p l e t e r e l i e f f r o m the i m p a c t of f u r t h e r d e v e l o p m e n t a n d s m a l l l o t s i z e on e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . A n t i c i p a t e d e c o n o m i c a n d s o c i a l e f f e c t s ,  an  59 i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e s a n d p r o p o r t i o n of b u y e r s u n s a t i s f i e d , because most buyers are unsatisfied anyway. tion,  do n o t o c c u r  largely  In e x a m i n i n g t h i s l a s t s i m u l a -  its c o m p a r i s o n w i t h that i n w h i c h p o p u l a t i o n and e c o n o m i c g r o w t h w e r e  e l i m i n a t e d ( F i g u r e 16) p r o v e s i n t e r e s t i n g .  I n the l a t t e r  case,  free  market  c o n d i t i o n s p r e v a i l a n d s u s t a i n e d d e g r a d a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y d o e s n o t take place.  In the f o r m e r  case,  market restrictions  are i m p o s e d which,  a c c o r d i n g to t h e one s i m p l e q u a l i t a t i v e m e a s u r e u s e d h e r e , d e t e r i o r a t i o n of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y . alone,  prevent  the  Considering environmental quality  a d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g b o d y c a p a b l e of e i t h e r m a n i p u l a t i o n m i g h t c h o o s e  the m a r k e t r e s t r i c t i o n a n d i m p o s e a m i n i m u m l o t s i z e .  Such a decision would  c e r t a i n l y be t a k e n i f t h e p r o f i t m o t i v e w e r e i n v o l v e d b e c a u s e a r i s i n g is maintained along with quality.  W h e r e b e t t e r to m a k e a p r o f i t ?  market  Should  i m p o r t a n c e be a c c o r d e d t h e p r o p o r t i o n of t h e p o p u l a t i o n w h o s e d e s i r e f o r a s u m m e r home site was fulfilled, criteria,  t h e n d e p e n d i n g u p o n the w e i g h t g i v e n t h a t  t h e e l i m i n a t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h w o u l d h a v e to be  given serious  consideration.  PRICE ($1000)  F i g u r e 12.  DEVELOPMENT  PER CENT  PRICE f$1000)  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a r e d u c e d r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h f r o m  DEVELDPltNT  PER CENT  1966. o  Figure  13.  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a n a c c e l e r a t e d r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h f r o m  1966.  PRICE ($1000!  F i g u r e 14.  CEVELCFMENT  PER CENT  PRICE ($1000)  CCVELDRCNT  G I R L S output s h o w i n g t h e e f f e c t of a r e d u c e d r a t e of e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m 1 9 6 6 .  PER CENT  PRICE (JlflOO)  W  F i g u r e 16.  CEVELCFMENT  ft  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of z e r o p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h f r o m  1966.  PRICE (tlCOO)  F i g u r e 17.  DEVELOPMENT  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of a 10 p e r c e n t s a l e s t a x f r o m  1966.  F i g u r e 19.  G I R L S output s h o w i n g the e f f e c t of i n c r e a s e d p r o p e r t y t a x e s f r o m  1966.  c^  CONCLUSIONS T h e q u a l i t y of an- e n v i r o n m e n t u s e d f o r o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n d e p e n d s i n p a r t upon p e r c e i v e d p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y . f i r s t d e v e l o p e d by p s y c h o p h y s i c i s t s ,  W i t h o u t the u s e of  i t m i g h t be i m p o s s i b l e to s u p p o r t  such a statement with e m p i r i c a l evidence. unconstrained,  techniques  Because their methods  are  t h e y m a k e i t p o s s i b l e to t r a c e c h a n g i n g e n v i r o n m e n t a l  q u a l i t y a s s o m e c o m p o n e n t of the e n v i r o n m e n t i s c h a n g e d .  Such docu-  m e n t a t i o n is not p o s s i b l e u s i n g t r a d i t i o n a l e c o n o m i c or p o l i t i c a l methods. B e c a u s e of the s u c c e s s of t h i s a t t e m p t t o d e f i n e e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y using psychophysical techniques,  continued effort in this d i r e c t i o n  s e e m s c e r t a i n of g r e a t s u c c e s s .  T h e u s e of m o r e r e f i n e d m e t h o d s  d o c u m e n t the e f f e c t s of v i s u a l ,  audio and o l i f a c t o r y p e r c e p t i o n on  m a n ' s j u d g m e n t of h i s e n v i r o n m e n t w i l l l e a d to a n e x t r e m e l y m o d e l of e n v i r o n m e n t a l q u a l i t y .  W i t h s u c h a t o o l , the  c o n s e q u e n c e s of m a n y d i f f e r e n t k i n d s of r e s o u r c e viewed,  as a r e d o l l a r s ,  in cool,  useful  environmental  d e v e l o p m e n t m a y be  numerical terms.  Given a simulation package dealing with environmental quality, s e c o n d s t e p i s p o s s i b l e a s d e m o n s t r a t e d b y the G u l f I s l a n d s tional L a n d Simulator. economic  That is,  the e n v i r o n m e n t a l ,  c o n s e q u e n c e s of r e s o u r c e  d e v e l o p m e n t m a y be  policies.  a  Recrea-  s o c i a l and  i n a l a r g e r s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l w h i c h c a n t h e n be u s e d to v a r i o u s e f f e c t s of a l t e r n a t e  to  integrated  anticipate  H o w e v e r , this second step is  p o s s i b l e o n l y w h e n k e y i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s c a n be i d e n t i f i e d w h i c h t i e the a p p r o p r i a t e s y s t e m c o m p o n e n t s  together.  T h e k e y v a r i a b l e i n the s t u d y j u s t c o m p l e t e d w a s " l o t s i z e " .  T o that  i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e the e c o n o m i c a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s e q u e n c e s were f i r m l y tied.  T h e s o c i a l c o n s e q u e n c e i s i n d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to l o t  s i z e i n t h a t m a n y p e o p l e m a y be p r o v i d e d w i t h s m a l l l o t s ,  fewer  with  70  larger lots. identify.  S u c h k e y v a r i a b l e s m a y i n s o m e c a s e s be i m p o s s i b l e to  In a l l but s u c h c a s e s ,  simulation models provide a powerful  i n t e g r a t i v e f r a m e w o r k w i t h i n w h i c h a l l t h r e e c o m p o n e n t s of o u r c a n be v i e w e d i n c o n c e r t .  In this context,  the G u l f I s l a n d s  L a n d S i m u l a t o r s t a n d s as a u n i q u e e x a m p l e ,  Recreational  n o t of a p a n a c e a ,  n e w a n d p o w e r f u l a d d i t i o n to the t o o l s a v a i l a b l e to r e s o u r c e  society  b u t of a  developers.  71 BIBLIOGRAPHY  B e r l y n e , D . E . and So P e c k h a m . 1966. 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O p t i m u m l o t size when site rent is a t r a n s f e r A n a l s of R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e , _3(1): 8 - 1 5 .  S t e v e n s , S . S . (ed.) New York. .  I960.  1951.  H a n d b o o k of E x p e r i m e n t a l P s y c h o l o g y .  T h e p s y c h o p h y s i c s of s e n s o r y f u n c t i o n .  Amer.  payment.  Wiley,  Scientist,  48:226-253. Thomsen, C . B . 1968. E c o n o m i c o p t i m i z a t i o n of i n c o m e - p r o d u c i n g b u i l d i n g s with computers. I N : R a t c l i f f , R . U . (ed.). C o l l o q u i u m on c o m p u t e r a p p l i c a t i o n s i n r e a l e s t a t e i n v e s t m e n t a n a l y s i s . F a c u l t y of C o m m e r c e a n d B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , Vancouver. P p . 9-14. Treisman, M . 1 9 6 6 . A statistical decision model for sensory discriminat i o n w h i c h p r e d i c t s W e b e r ' s l a w and other s e n s o r y l a w s : S o m e r e s u l t s of a c o m p u t e r s i m u l a t i o n . P e r c e p t , a n d P s y c h o p h y s . 1 : 2 0 3 - 2 3 0 . Wagner,  P.E. 12-14.  Wendt,  P.F.  1957.  1967.  22(2):220-239.  Subdivision Costs.  Large-scale  Residential Appraiser,  community development.  J.  23 ( M a y ) :  Finance,  74  APPENDIX  I  T H E C O N T R I B U T I O N O F B I N O C U L A R VISION TO T H E P E R C E P T I O N  OF  DISTANCE Depth,  or distance  binocular vision,  perception,  although monocular  i m p o r t a n t as w e l l (Gibson,  1958).  has long been thought dependent cues have been  demonstrated  T h e p u r p o s e of t h i s e x e r c i s e  c a l c u l a t e the c o n t r i b u t i o n b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n c a n m a k e to d i s t a n c e Then,  to  be  is f i r s t  to  judgments.  by c o m p a r i n g t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h a c t u a l f i e l d j u d g m e n t s ,  t i v e i m p o r t a n c e of m o n o c u l a r c u e s m a y be C o n s i d e r two objects A_ and A f r o m an observer  ( F i g u r e 1).  2  a t d i s t a n c e s D_ a n d D  D i s p l a c e m e n t i n the l a s t ,  Diagrammatically,  therefore,  respectively  a  and  "  l • •=  D  A  2  b  (Hallert,  vertical,  or longitudinal plane,  p o n e n t g i v i n g r i s e to b i n o c u l a r p e r c e p t i o n of the i+1  2  T h e i r b i n o c u l a r p e r c e p t i o n is dependent upon  T h i s d i s p a r i t y i s c o m p r i s e d of c o m p o n e n t s i n t h r e e p l a n e s :  D  the r e l a -  assessed.  t h e t o t a l r e t i n a l d i s p a r i t y (both, e y e s ) of the i m a g e s  and longitudinal.  on  I960).  lateral,  i s the c o m -  distance  A°i-  is d r a w n d i r e c t l y above A_ .  Two further  o b s e r v a t i o n s w h i c h e x p l a i n the s y m m e t r y of F i g u r e 1: a)  If a s k e d w h a t d i s t a n c e s e p a r a t e d the o b j e c t s , to f a c e t h e m d i r e c t l y . s e p a r a t i o n of h i s e y e s , is therefore  b)  an o b s e r v e r would t u r n  B y s o d o i n g h e w o u l d m a x i m i z e the consequently,  his binocular v i s i o n .  A  2  B  p e r p e n d i c u l a r to L R .  D i s t a n c e s D ^ a r e m u c h g r e a t e r t h a n the e y e s e p a r a t i o n L R . therefore  effective  c o n s i d e r e d to b i s e c t  A B is 2  LR.  R e t i n a l d i s p a r i t y (p) i n the l e f t e y e ( F i g u r e 1) i s c l e a r l y r e l a t e d to the a n g l e y3  2  - y3i  =  AjS a n d the f o c a l l e n g t h of the eye  (f).  75  Appendix F i g u r e 1.  The geometry  of b i n o c u l a r  vision.  76  p  = f A/3  T h e s a m e i s t r u e f o r t h e r i g h t e y e so t h a t the s u m m e d d i s p a r i t y i s P Intuitively,  •= p + p  =  1  2 f Aj8.  one m i g h t e x p e c t a m i n i m u m d e t e c t a b l e P to e x i s t .  i n t u i t i o n i s supported by data ( M o e s s n e r , radians  1  1954) w h i c h s u g g e s t s 0 . 0 0 0 2 1  to b e t h e m i n i m u m Aj3 w h i c h t r a i n e d o b s e r v e r s  consistency.  Such  can detect with  some  T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n to t h e p e r c e p t i o n of d i s -  tance m a y t h e r e f o r e be r e l a t e d to changes i n the f u n c t i o n  p\  arctan  =  2D. Li  R  or A  ^  =  2LR (LR) +4D^ 2  A  °i  which becomes AD  t  = AjS(LR  2  +4Di ) LR' . 2  1  That i s , a n object at some d i s t a n c e D^ f r o m a n o b s e r v e r  m u s t be m o v e d  t h r o u g h a d i s t a n c e A D ^ s u f f i c i e n t to p r o d u c e the m i n i m u m a n g u l a r A {$ b e f o r e b i n o c u l a r d e t e c t i o n of A D ^ c a n o c c u r .  change  Variation in binocular acuity  c a n b e e x p e c t e d a s a c o n s e q u e n c e of v a r i a t i o n i n (1) e y e s e p a r a t i o n ( L R ) , the r a n g e of w h i c h i s 6 5 _+ 7 m m ( H o w a r d , 1 9 1 9 ) , a n d (2) A p\ F i g u r e s 2 a n d 3 depict the r e l a t i o n s h i p between distance change  (AD) r e q u i r e d to p r o d u c e a n a m b i t i o u s ^^rnin  =  0.00010 r a d i a n s , a n d  the i n f l u e n c e of e y e s e p a r a t i o n o n b i n o c u l a r d i s t a n c e p e r c e p t i o n .  1  (D), t h e  A l s o shown  M o e s s n e r ' s d a t a s u g g e s t A j S m i n i s r e a c h e d w h e n D i ( F i g u r e 1) i s 122 m m a n d X Y l i e s b e t w e e n 0 . 0 2 5 4 a n d .01 27 m m v i e w e d t h r o u g h t w o p o w e r l e n s e s . T h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n of D w a s t h r o u g h p e r s o n a l c o r r e s p o n d e n c e w i t h D r . M o e s s n e r a n d the A b r a m s I n s t r u m e n t C o r p o r a t i o n . x  0.127mm — — 122mm  • = 0.00010 r a d i a n s n  n  n  n  0.254mm —-rr 12 2 m m  „ = 0.0127  radians  77  100  +  DISTANCE (METRES) Appendix F i g u r e 2.  T h e m i n i m u m c h a n g e i n d i s t a n c e (AD) a n o b s e r v e r c o u l d d e t e c t u s i n g b i n o c u l a r c u e s a l o n e , a n d t h a t A D w h i c h c a n be d e t e c t e d , at v a r i o u s d i s t a n c e s (D) f r o m the o b s e r v e r .  After Gibson,  e _ a l . (1)  78  S5  +  LLJ D-  SO  u  SO  Appendix F i g u r e 3.  40  EO  DISTANCE (METRES) T h e m i n i m u m change i n d i s t a n c e (AD) an o b s e r v e r could detect u s i n g b i n o c u l a r c u e s a l o n e , a n d t h a t A D w h i c h c a n be d e t e c t e d , a t v a r i o u s d i s t a n c e s (D) f r o m the o b s e r v e r .  After Gibson,  e_t al_. (1)  79  50  +  • < f_J  40  LLJ  • \  >U Z  u u  30  1  EO  1  rH  LL LL. LLI  10  50  100  150  EOO  DISTANCE (METRES) Appendix F i g u r e 4.  T h e e f f i c i e n c y of b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n a l o n e c o m p a r e d w i t h t h a t of c o m p l e t e v i s i o n i n the j u d g m e n t of d i s t a n c e .  After Gibson,  et a l . (1)  80  a r e d a t a of G i b s o n , et a d . , (1955) w h o f o u n d s u b j e c t s c a p a b l e of d i s t i n g u i s h i n g m u c h s m a l l e r A D ' s at m u c h g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e s t h a n w o u l d be p o s s i b l e t h r o u g h binocular vision alone. T o m a k e the a b o v e c o m p a r i s o n m o r e t r a n s p a r e n t ,  the r e c i p r o c a l of  AD m a y be c o n s i d e r e d a m e a s u r e of the e f f i c i e n c y w i t h w h i c h d i s t a n c e i s p e r ceived;  that i s , at c l o s e q u a r t e r s d i s t a n c e j u d g m e n t s a r e v e r y e f f i c i e n t a n d a  v e r y s m a l l AD m a y be d e t e c t e d e a s i l y . volving remote objects.  F i g u r e 4,  T h e r e v e r s e i s t r u e of j u d g m e n t s i n -  t h e r e f o r e d e p i c t s the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n  d i s t a n c e a n d the e f f i c i e n c y w i t h w h i c h i t s c h a n g e i s p e r c e i v e d . T h e i n f e r e n c e of t h e a b o v e f i g u r e s i s t h a t b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n d o m i n a t e s d i s t a n c e j u d g m e n t s up to 9 o r 10 m e t r e s .  B e y o n d that d i s t a n c e ,  moncular  c u e s a s s u m e d o m i n a n c e a n d the c o n t r i b u t i o n b i n o c u l a r v i s i o n c a n m a k e to the p e r c e p t i o n of d i s t a n c e d i m i n i s h e s r a p i d l y .  APPENDIX  QUESTIONNAIRES  II  USED IN T H E S T U D Y  OF LOT  SIZE  AS A M E A S U R E OF E N V I R O N M E N T A L Q U A L I T Y  82 QUESTIONNAIRE  I.  Subjective  E v a l u a t i o n of L a n d s c a p e a n d D e v e l o p m e n t .  Y o u w i l l b e p r e s e n t e d w i t h t w o s e r i e s of p i c t u r e s i n w h i c h c e r t a i n c h a n g e s h a v e b e e n m a d e , a n d a s k e d to g r a d e t h e m a c c o r d i n g to y o u r p r e f e r e n c e . But f i r s t , w o u l d y o u p l e a s e a n s w e r the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s ?  W h e r e d i d y o u g r o w up?  •  I n the c o u n t r y In a t o w n or c i t y ,  Or  p o p u l a t i o n u n d e r 10, 10, 000 50, 50, 000 - 100, 100, 000 - 250, o v e r 250,  000 000 000 000 000  specify  W h e r e do y o u l i v e n o w ? In G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r '(please specify, N o r t h S u r r e y , B u r n a b y , etc.)  e.g.,  Kitsilano,  E l s e w h e r e (please specify) Would you m i n d t e l l i n g me how old you a r e ? U n d e r 12 y e a r s '12 - 20 21 - 30 A r e you m a r r i e d ? single? other?  31 - 4 0 _ _ ] o v e r 40 Q  [__ • •  A r e you male? female?  | [ Q  • •  D o y o u have any c h i l d r e n ? N o [__]  Y e s [^}  What is your f a m i l y ' s y e a r l y u n d e r $7, 000 $7, 000 - 10, 000  •  Ages... income? $10, 000 - 1 5, 000 o v e r $ 1 5 , 000  D o y o u own, or a r e y o u i n t e r e s t e d i n o w n i n g a s u m m e r a l r e a d y own 1  1  interested in owning [  [  C ]  Q cottage?  not i n t e r e s t e d |  |  83 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E I (continued)  N o w c o n s i d e r t h a t y o u a r e s h o p p i n g f o r a s u m m e r c o t t a g e . O n the s c r e e n a r e t w o g r o u p s of p i c t u r e s , a l l s u p p o s e d l y t a k e n f r o m the s a m e p o r c h ; the p o r c h of a cottage w h i c h p l e a s e s y o u i n i t s d e s i g n a n d c o n s t r u c t i o n , and w h i c h you might t h e r e f o r e buy. I w o u l d l i k e to k n o w w h i c h l o c a t i o n s ( p i c t u r e s ) y o u p r e f e r f o r y o u r and how m u c h you p r e f e r t h e m o v e r the o t h e r s . Would you t h e r e f o r e g r a d e t h e p i c t u r e s w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p ' o n the s c a l e s p r o v i d e d .  EXAMPLE Picture 1 2 3 Prefer More  x  GROUP  4 Prefer More  Picture 1 2 3  I  GROUP. Picture 1 2 3  4 Prefer More  x  Prefer Less  Comments:  Prefer Less  cottage please  Prefer Less  II  4  84 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E II.  Subjective  E v a l u a t i o n of L a n d s c a p e a n d D e v e l o p m e n t .  Y o u w i l l be p r e s e n t e d w i t h t w o s e r i e s of p i c t u r e s i n w h i c h c e r t a i n c h a n g e s h a v e b e e n m a d e a n d a s k e d to g r a d e t h e m a c c o r d i n g to y o u r p r e f e r e n c e . But f i r s t , w o u l d y o u p l e a s e a n s w e r the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s ?  W h e r e d i d y o u g r o w up?  •  I n the c o u n t r y I n a t o w n or c i t y ,  Or  p o p u l a t i o n u n d e r 10, 10, 000 50, 50, 000 - 100, 100, 000 - 250, o v e r 250,  000 000 000 000 000  specify  W h e r e do y o u l i v e n o w ? In G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r (please specify, N o r t h S u r r e y , B u r n a b y , etc.) E l s e w h e r e (please  e.g.,  Kitsilano,  specify),  Would you m i n d t e l l i n g me how old-you a r e ? U n d e r 12 y e a r s 12 - 20 • 21 - 30 Q  * o v e r 40 [ |  A r e you male ? female?  A r e you m a r r i e d ? • single? | | • o t h e r ? \~J  • tZU  D o you have any c h i l d r e n ? No [ ]  Yes Q  ;  What is your f a m i l y ' s y e a r l y under $7,000 $7, 000 - 10, 000  •  Ages... income? $10, 0 0 0 - 15, 000 o v e r $ 1 5 , 000  D o y o u own, or a r e y o u i n t e r e s t e d i n o w n i n g a s u m m e r a l r e a d y own |  1  interested in-owning 1 |  O  Q  cottage?  not i n t e r e s t e d |  |  85 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E II.  (continued)  O n t h e s c r e e n a r e t w o g r o u p s of p i c t u r e s , p o r c h of y o u r s u m m e r c o t t a g e .  a l l s u p p o s e d l y t a k e n f r o m the  I w o u l d l i k e to k n o w w h i c h v i e w s y o u p r e f e r a n d h o w m u c h y o u p r e f e r t h e m o v e r the o t h e r s . W o u l d y o u t h e r e f o r e p l e a s e g r a d e the p i c t u r e s w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p on the s c a l e s p r o v i d e d .  EXAMPLE Picture 1 2 3 Prefer More  GROUP Picture 1 2 3  4  x  I  GROUP Picture 1 2 3  4  Prefer More  Prefer More  Prefer Less  Prefer Less  x  x  P r efer L e ss  Comments:  x  II  4  Q U E S T I O N N A I R E III.  S u b j e c t i v e E v a l u a t i o n of L a n d s c a p e a n d D e v e l o p m e n t .  Y o u w i l l b e p r e s e n t e d w i t h t w o s e r i e s of p i c t u r e s i n w h i c h c e r t a i n c h a n g e s h a v e b e e n m a d e a n d a s k e d to g r a d e t h e m a c c o r d i n g to y o u r p r e f e r e n c e . But f i r s t , w o u l d y o u p l e a s e a n s w e r the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s ?  1.  W h e r e d i d y o u g r o w up? I n the c o u n t r y In a t o w n or c i t y ,  p o p u l a t i o n u n d e r 10, 000 10, 000 50, 50, 000 - 100, 100, 000 - . 2 5 0 , o v e r 250,  000 000 000 000  Or specify 2.  W h e r e do y o u l i v e n o w ? In G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r (please specify, N o r t h S u r r e y , B u r n a b y , etc.)  e.g.,  Kitsilano, *  E l s e w h e r e (please s p e c i f y ) . . . . . 3.  Would you m i n d t e l l i n g me how o l d you a r e ? U n d e r 12 y e a r s • 12 - 20 • 21 - 30 [ •  4.  A r e you m a r r i e d ? single? other?  5.  D o you have any c h i l d r e n ? N o [___]  6.  31 - 40 • ' o v e r 40 [~~|  A r e y o u m a l e ? L~] female?  L_l [__J Q  Yes Q  What is your f a m i l y ' s y e a r l y u n d e r $7, 000 $7,000 - 10,000  [__ •  Ages income? $10,000 - 1 5,000 over $15,000  • []]  87 Q U E S T I O N N A I R E III  (continued)  N o w c o n s i d e r t h a t y o u a r e s h o p p i n g f o r a h o u s e . O n the s c r e e n a r e t w o g r o u p s o f p i c t u r e s , a l l s u p p o s e d l y t a k e n f r o m t h e s a m e p o r c h ; the p o r c h of a h o u s e w h i c h p l e a s e s you i n its d e s i g n and c o n s t r u c t i o n , and w h i c h you might t h e r e fore buy. I w o u l d l i k e to k n o w w h i c h l o c a t i o n s ( p i c t u r e s ) you p r e f e r f o r y o u r h o u s e , a n d h o w m u c h y o u p r e f e r t h e m o v e r the o t h e r s . W o u l d y o u t h e r e f o r e p l e a s e g r a d e t h e p i c t u r e s w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p o n the s c a l e s p r o v i d e d .  EXAMPLE Picture 1 2 3  GROUP Picture 1 2 3  4  Prefer More  I  GROUP Picture 1 2 3  4  Prefer More  P r e f exMo re  Prefer Less  Prefer Less  X  x  P r ef e r Less  Comments;  x  II  4  APPENDIX  A LISTING OF  III  GIRLS  89  // F O R INCOM *ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E INCOM COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 » G S 2 » G M X 2 » G S C 2 • I G M 2 » G S 3 * G S C 3 . COMMON S A V E ( 6 * 5 ) » S A V E S ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E Y l 6 » 5 ) » I C T •COMMON G O * A » N Y » A C O N * B C O N ? D K * 1Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) * V F I N < 1 0 0 ) • R M N 1 N ( 1 0 0 ) » E C D E V » G R O T H » 6 I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) * S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) t A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) » P R 0 P 1 7 ) » 0 L 0 T ( 7 It 60) *P(60) » U N D V ( 7 ) * D E V ( 7 ) » C 0 N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S B I D ( 7 ) *HAPY(7) s D I S A T t O R I G 2(7)»TOLOTtF3 COMMON T H R S H » X L A R G » S M A L L * A K i P R O F t A V L N D l 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S f 7 ) » 1 A S I Z E ( 7 ) » D M A N D ( 7 ) * X X K » X X L »XT > X X M » X X P * C O N S B t C O N S S » K O D E t D A R E A COMMON R E V P T » R E V S T n P T X j S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » B E T A » T H E T A » F I N T » S I N T » MOR T1•M ORT 2 » F M O R G COMMON Q T O T  C c  c c c  4 C  E Q U I V A L E N C E ( R M N I N ( 2 2) » R 2 2) » ( R M N I N ( 3 2 ) » R 3 2 ) ( R M N I N ( 4 2 ) « R 4 2 ) 1 (RMNIN<52) » R ? 2 ) » (RMNIN(62> » R 6 2 ) I N P U T OF KNOWN MEAN I N C O M E S ( R M N I N ) FOR C E N S U S Y E A R S 19 2 1 * 1 9 3 1 * 1 9 4 1 * 1 9 5 1 * 1 9 6 1 R22=2209o R32=2687B  R4 2 = 2 6 0 8 « R52=2424« R62=5222« YEAR = 1+1899 D E T E R M I N A T ION OF M E A N I N C O M E S ( R M N I N ) FOR P R E C E N S U S Y E A R S 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 2 0 FAC10=R32/R22 FAC1 = F A B 1 0 * * O e l 0 DO 3 J = 1 * 2 1 I = 22-J R M N I N ( I ) = RMN IN( 1 + 1 ) / F A C 1 FOR Y E A R S B E T W E E N C E N S U S E S 1 9 2 2 - 1 9 3 0 DO 4 I = 2 3 » 3 1 R M N I N ( I ) = R M N I N ( I - 1 ) * F AC 1 FOR Y E A R S B E T W E E N C E N S U S E S 193 2 - 1 9 4 0 * 1 9 4 2 - 1 9 5 0 . 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 6 0 DO 6 J = l » 3 L = J * 1 0 + 20 FAC10=RMNIN(L+12)/RMNIN(L+2) FAC1  5 6  = FAC 1 0 * * 6 • 1 0  L3 = L + 3 L l l = L + 11 DO 5 I : L 3 » L 1 1 R M N I N ( I ) • RMN IN( 1 - 1 ) * F A C 1 CONTINUE CONTINUE RETURN END  // DUP *DELETE *STORE  WS  UA  INCOM INCOM  90  // F O R I N I T L INTEGERS SUBROUTINE INITL  #ONE WORD  COMMON  GMX1»IGM1»GS2»GMX2»GSC2«IGM2»GS3»GSC3  _  COMMON S A V E ( 6 I . 5 ) » S A V £ S ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 I 5 ) » I C T COMMON GO * A » N Y • A C O N > B C O N » BK » I Y COMMON '. 0 t P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) tRMNIN ( 1 0 0 ) » E C DE V » G R O T H t B I DN ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E t 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) »SAL1(7) •SAL 2(7) » A G R 1 • S O L D ( 7 ) » P R 0 P ( 7 ) ,0L0T(7 1»60) « P ( 6 0 ! iUNDV(7) » D E V ( 7 ) *CON(7) » T O T ( 7 ) »SBI D< 7) » H A P Y ( 7 ) » D I S A T s O R l G 2(7)»TOLOT*F3 COMMON T H R S H tXLARG » S M A L L tAK»P ROF 9 AVLND(7)»fcj I G ( 7 ) • H O L D ( 7 ) • D L O T S ( 1 ) 1 A S I Z E ( 7 ) J D M A N D ( 7 ) » X X K >XXL tXT * X X M » X X P » C O N S B » C O N S S » K O D E » D A R E A COMMON R E V P T » R E V S T » P TX » S A L TX COMMON A L P H A j S E T A » T H E T A j F I NT »SI NT » MORT1oMORT 2 » FMORG COMMON Q T O T »  GO = 1 9 0 0 . D=2792«8.  GROTH=.02844 ECDEV=«03 AGR1=1000. CONSB=o0001  CONSS=0aQQ7 ICT = 1 DO 11 1  = 1»7 H A P Y l I ) = 0 cO . HOLD(I) = 0.0 COM I ) = 0.  UNDV(I)=ORIG( I)-FRS L E ( I ) * A S I Z E ( I ) DEV(  I ) = OaO  SAL(I)-SAL 1 ( I ) 11 C-— C —  DO  = 1*60  11 J  OLOT(l>J)=0o  TOLOT = 0.0 BK=1.5E-06  F 2 ( I ) IS THE PROPORTION OF P E O P L E EARNING  LAND « PMAX=»S  I N I T I A L L Y MAXIMUM  ( 1 * 1 0 0 0 ) WHO WISH T O B U Y P R O P O R T I O N OF' .8 AT 1 = 15  QPINC=15. DO 2 0 1 = 1 » 1 0 0 XX = I  20  C—  F2m=PMAX*EXPU~e6366/'0PINC**2»*(XX-0PlNCj**2*  CONTINUE SALTX=0. PTX=0.005  MOTGAGE  SUBROUTINE  ALPHA=.2 5  BETA=e 5  THETA=.35  FINT=«02 SINT=i035  MORT1=15  MORT2=10  RETURN END  PARAMETERS  // DUP *DELETE •KSTQRE  91 WS  UA  INITL INITL  // FOR PROBS *QNE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E PROBS COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 » G S 2 » G M X 2 t G S C 2 • I G M 2 » G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E S ( 6 t 5) s S A V E Y ( 6 » 5 ) » I C T COMMON G O » A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K » I Y COMMON D » P O P C 3 ) » V F I N ( 1 0 0 . ) >RMNIN(10 0) tECDEV»GROTH»BIDN(100) •F2(100) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) >PROP(7) » O L O T ( 7 1 » 6 U ) » P ( 6 0 ) »U.NDV(7) * D E V ( 7 ) » C O N ( 7 ) # TOT ( 7 ) »SBI D ( 7 ) » H A P Y ( 7 ) * D I S A T » G R I 2(7)tTOLOT»F3 COMMON T H R S H » X L A R G » SMALL t A K » P R O F »A VLND ( 7 ) »B I G ( 7 ) » HOLD ( 7 ) » D L O T S IAS I Z E ( 7 ) » DMAND ( 7 ) » XXK » X X L »XT » XXM • XX P » C O N S B » CONSS » KODE » D A R E A COMMON R E V P T . R E V S T » P T X » S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » BETA » T H E T A » F I N T » S I N T • M O R T 1 » M Q R T 2 • F M O R G COMMON QTOT C—  c c—  10  c— 20  S U B R O U T I N E COMPUTES THE P O R O B A 3 I L I T Y OF R E S A L E OF OLD L O T S BASED ON THE S I Z E OF P R O P E R T Y TAX WHICH MUST L I E IN T H E RANGE Oo TO . 0 5 9 MEAN=3Q«*( l . - P T X / « Q 8 8 ) +5 MEAN=30*5-340«9#PTX M2=MEAN*2 XBAR=MEAN XBAR1=MEAN+1 SD = XBAR/3 . P<1)=GAUS< ( 1 « - X 8 A R ) / S D ) - G A U S ( - X B A R / S D ) DO 10 1 = 2 » M 2 XX = I P( I )=GAUS( ( X X - X 3 A R ) / S D ) - G A U S ( ( X X - X B A R 1 ) / S D ) CONTINUE S E T REMAINING P ( I ) TO 1. M2=M2+1 DO 20 I = M 2 » 6 0 P(I)=1. CONTINUE RETURN END  // DUP ^DELETE •STORE  WS  UA  PROBS PROBS  92  // F O R MORTG * Q N E WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E MORTG COMMON G M X l » l G M l * G S 2 t G M X 2 » G S C 2 » l G M 2 t G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 9 5 ) > S A V E S ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 * 5 ) t I C T COMMON G O * A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K . » I Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) i R M N I N ( 1 0 0 ) » E C D E V » G R O T H » B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) > S A L 1 ( 7 ) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) * P R O P ( 7 ) # 0 L 0 T ( 7 1 » 6 0 ) » P ( 6 0 ) . » U N D V ( 7) » D E V ( 7) » C O N ( 7 ) » T O T 17) » S B I D ( 7 ) * H A P Y ( 7 ) » D I S A T » O R I G 2(7)«T0L0T»F3 COMMON T H R S H 9 X L A R G » S M A L L 9 AK 9 P R O F » A V L N D ( 7 ) )»H0LD(7) »DL0TS(7)» 1 A S I Z E ( 7 ) 9DMAND(7) » X X K » X X L » X T » X X M 9 X X P 9 C 0 N S 3 9 C O N S S 9 K O D E 9DAREA COMMON R EV P T 9 RE VS T 9 P T X 9 S A L T X COMMON A L P H A * B E T A » T H E T A » F I N T * S I NT 9MOR T 1 9 M O R T 2 » F M O R G COMMON Q T O T 1 B I G I 7  ;  c  C— C— C— C— C— C— C-C—  .  .  ALPHA BETA THETA F I NT S I NT MORTl MORT2 FMORG  MAX. F I R S T M O R T G A G E D E B T / S E R V I C E U.--1. G E N . . 2 5 MAX. F I R S T L O A N TO V A L U E u « - l . G E N . 0 6 6 MAX« TOTAL D E B T / S E R V I C E u . - l . GEN. .35 HALF FIRST MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE HALF SECOND MORTGAGE I N T E R E S T RATE F I R S T MORTGAGE A M O R T I Z A T I O N PERIOD IN Y E A R S SECOND MORTGAGE A M O R T I Z A T I O N PERIOD IN YEARS I S T H E S M A L L E R OF T H E M U L T I P L Y I N G F A C T O R S F R A C 1 * F R A C 2 . D E N l = 12s-«-BETA-«- ( ( ( l . + F I N T ) * * . 1 6 6 - 1 . ) / '. 1. - I 1.+ F I NT ) ** l - 2 * M O R T l I ) ) + PT - IX DEN2 = 1 2 e * ( 1 - B E T A ) * ( ( 1 e + S I N T ) * * . 1 6 6 - 1 . ) / ( 1 ( 1 . + S I N T ) * * ( - 2 * M O R T 2 ) ) FRAC1=THETA/(DEM1+DEN2) FRAC 2 =ALPHA/DEN 1 C— S E L E C T S M A L L E R OF TWO F R A C T I O N S • I F ( F R A C 1 - F R A C 2 ) 50 9 50 9 6 0 50 FM0RG=FRAC1 GO TO 7 0 60 FM0RG=FRAC2 70 CONTINUE RETURN END // DUP *DELETE MORTG *STORE WS UA M O R T G c  0  // F O R P O P I M *ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E POP IN DIMENSION VFAM(8) COMMON G M X 1 9 I G M 1 9 GS 2 9 GMX29 G S C 2 9 IGM2 9 G S 3 9 G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 .5) 9 S A V E S ( 6 9 5 ) 9 S A V E Y ( 6 9 5 ) 9 I C T COMMO N GO 9 A 9 N Y 9 A C 0 N » B CO N 9 S K 9 1 Y COMMON D 9 P O P ( 8 ) 9 V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) 9 R M N I N ( 1 0 0) 9 E C D E V 9 G R O T H 9 B 1 D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 )  93 COMMON F R S L E I 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R l » S O L D ( 7 ) t P R O P ( 7 ) *OLOT<7 1 » 6 0 ) » P ( 6 0 ) * UNDV< 7) s D E V ( 7 ! »CON(7) i T O T ( 7 ) »SB I D ( 7 J » H A P Y ( 7 ) »D I SAT »OR IG 2(7)»TOLQTiF3 COMMON T H R S r i , X L A R G »SMALL»AK »PROF * A V L N D ( 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) * H O L D ( 7 ) * D L O T S ( 7 ) * 1A S IZ E ( 7 ) »D M A N D ( 7 ) J X X K • X X L t X T » X X M s> X X P » C 0 N S 3 t C 0 N S S • K 0 D E «D A R E A COMMON R E V P T »REVST» P T X o S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » B E T A * T H E T A » F I NT »SINT»MORT1 *MORT2 »FMORG COMMON QTOT  DATA V F A M / O o 3 4 0 » 0 e 2 0 0 » 0 6 2 1 6 » 0 « 1 3 2 » 0 » 0 6 5 0 * O e 0 2 6 2 » 0 « 0 1 1 6 * 0 * 0 0 9 7 6 /  DATA PRO/D 2 4 / DATA S D 6 1 / 2 8 1 6 . . / C— T H I S S U B R O U T I N E C O M B I N E S THE OLD P O P I AND ECOi\2* AND D E T E R M I N E S C P O P U L A T I O N S AND ECONOMIC GROWTH C 'THIS SECTION REPLACES POPI C-D TOTAL P O P U L A T I O N C—• GROTH P E R C E N T A G E GROWTH RATE OF P G P U L A I O N e P R I O R TO 1966» GROWTH C— RATE IS 2 » 8 4 4 ( FROM BASE OF 2 7 9 * 2 8 8 IN 1 9 0 0 C— PRO R E C I P R O C A L OF A V E R A G E F A M I L Y S I Z E C— VFAM(I) P R O P O R T I O N OF P O P U L A T I O N WITH I P E O P L E IN THE F A M I L Y IF ( G O - 1 9 5 1 ) 1 0 * 1 0 * 2 0 10 D=D*1.02844 GO TO 3 0 20 D*D*(le+GROTH) 30 POOP=D*PRO C— E T E R M I N E NUMBER OF F A M I L I E S IN EACH F A M I L Y S I Z E CATEGORY DO 4 0 I = l » 8 POP(I)=POOP*VFAM(I) 40 CONTINUE C T H I S S E C T I O N R E P L A C E S ECON2 I F ( I Y - 6 2 ) 60 »60»50 C D E T E R M I N A T I O N OF MEAN INCOME ( R M N I N ) FOR POST C E N S U S YEARS 1 9 6 2 - 2 0 0 0 C— ECDEV P E R C E N T A G E R A T E OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 50 RMNIN(IY)= RMNIN(IY-1)*(1•+ECDEV) 60 CONTINUE C DETERMINE MEAN (R M) AND STANDARD D E V I A T I O N ( S T D E V ) OF NORMAL C D I S T R I B U T I O N FROM M E A N ( R M N I N ) AND CONSTANT STANDARD D E V I A T I O N C ( S D 6 1 ) OF LOG NORMAL DI S T R I BUT ION» C A L C U L A T I O N S BASED ON 1 9 6 1 DATA C SD61 STANDARD D E V I A T I O N OF INCOMES IN 1 9 6 1 RM= 0 • 9 8 9 * A L O G ( R M N I N ( I Y ! ) S T D E V= 0 o 9 74 * S D6 1 / R MN I N ( I Y ) C ' D E T E R M I N A T I O N OF F A M I L Y INCOME VECTOR ( V F I N ) VFIN(1)=GAUS( (ALOG(100 0 « ) - R M ) / S T D E V )-GAUS(-RM/STDEV) DO 70 I=2»100 RI = I V F I N ( I ) =GAUS( ( A L O G ( R I * 1 0 0 0 o ) - RM ) / S T D E V ) 1 - GAUS( ( A L O G ( (R I -1» )* 100 0 e) - R M J / S T D E V ) 70 CONTINUE RETURN END / / DUP *DELETE POPIN *STORE WS UA POPIN  1  94  // F O R B U Y E R * O N E WORD I N T E G E R S SUBROUTINE BUYER D I M E N S I O N F l ( 8 ) i t J Y E R ( ICO ) COMMON G M X 1 • I G M 1 % G S 2 » G M X 2 * G S C 2 » I G M 2 t G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E S ( f c » 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 * 5 ) » I C T . COMMON G O » A » N Y * A C O N » B C O N * B K » I Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) *RMNIN( 1 0 0 ) » E C D E V » G R O T H » 3 I D N { 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) * S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R l » S O L D ( 7 ) # P R O P 1 7 ) t O L O T ( 7 It 6 0 ) » P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V ( 7 ) » D E V ( 7 ) t C 0 N ( 7 ) t T O T ( 7 ) >SB I D ( 7 ) » H A P Y ( 7 ) t D IS A T 10 R I G 2(7)»TOLOT»F3 COMMON T H R S H t X L A R G t S M A L L t AK t P R O F t A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) t D L O T S ! 7 ) t 1 A S 1 Z E ( 7 ) * D M A N D ( 7 ) >XXK ? X X L t X T » X X M t X X P t C 0 N S 3 » C O N S S • K O D E tDA REA COMMON R E V P T t R E V S T » P T X t S A L T X C0MMON A L P H A t B E T A t T H E TA t F I NT »SI NT » MORT11MORT 2 t FMORG COMMON Q T O T C C C C C— C C C  20 30 C— C— 40  T H I S S U B R O U T I N E R E P L A C E S BIDDW AND S A L E W T H I S S E C T I O N R E P L A C E S BIDDW AND C O N V E R T S P O T E N T I A L B U Y E R S TO 3 I D D E R S BY E X P R E S S I N G G R O S S INCOME I N TERMS O F T H E MAXIMUM MORTGAGE I T CAN S E R V I C E F1*F2*F3 A R E F U N C T I O N S D E T E R M I N I N G T H E P R O P O R T I ON O F P E O P L E I N T E R E S T E D IN BUYING COTTAGE L O T S * F l I S A F U N C T I O N OF F A M I L Y S I Z F 2 I S A F U N C T I O N OF INCOME* F3 I S THE PROPO T I O N I N T E R E S T E D IN B U Y I N G G U L F I S L A N D L A N D D A T A F l / e 8 8 » e 9 8 t 1 « * 1o » 1 e t 1 e * 1 a t I s / F3=A/(1«+100**EXP(-BK*D)) B=0« DO 3 0 1 = 1 * 1 0 0 BIDN(I)=Oo VF=VFIN(I) FACT=F3*F2(I) SUM=Oo DO 2 0 J = l » 8 SUM=SUM+POP(J)*F1(J)*VF*FACT CONTINUE BYER(I)=SUM B=B+SUM CONTINUE E L I M I N A T E T H O S E WHO H A V E A L R E A D Y B O U G H T L O T S PROR I S P R O P O R T I O N REMAINING IF (B-TOLOT) 9 9 * 9 9 * 4 0 PROR=l»-TOLOT/B DO 9 0 1 = 1 * 1 0 0  KAT=I*FMORG+.5  72 75 78 80 90 99  IF (KAT-i) 7 2 * 7 5 t 7 5 KAT=1 IF (KAT-100) 80»80t78 KAT=100 BIDN(KAT)=BIDN(KAT)+BYER(I)*PROR CONTINUE . CONTINUE  95  C— C C C C C C  T H I S S E C T I O N C A L C U L A T E S T H E NUMBER O F L O T S C O M I N G U P FOR R E S A L E F R S L E ( I ) I S NO. OF D E V E L O P E D L O T S OF R E C R E A T I O N CATEGORY I t FOR SALE s S A L ( I ) ARE SALE PRICES* P ( J ) ARE P R O B A B I L I T I E S OF LOTS O F . OWNERSHIP J C O M I N G F O R S A L E * R E S A L N O . O F OWNED L O T S O F C A T E G O R Y I t AG E J » C O M I N G U P F O R R E S A L E OWNED OWNED L O T S O F C A T E G O R Y I» A G E J S U M SUM O F L O T S O F C A T E G O R Y I F O R S A L E DO 160 1 = 1 * 7 SUM=FRSLE(I) DO 120  12 0160  // D U P •DELETE •STORE  //  FOR  •ONE  J=l»60  OWNED = 0 L O T ( I » J ) RESAL=OWNED*P(J) SUM=SUM+RESAL OLOT ( 1 » J ) = O W N E D - R E S A L CONTINUE FRSLE(I)=SUM CONTINUE RETURN END BUYER WS U A B U Y E R  AGING  WORD INTEGERS SUBROUTINE AGING  COMMON GMXl»IGMl»GS2tGMX2pGSC2tIGM2»GS3»GSC3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 * 5 ) t S A V E S ( 6 * 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 * 5 ) « 1 C T COMMON GO « A »NY » A C O N * B C O N »B K » I Y COMMON D » P O P ! 8 ) » V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) s>RMNINt10 0 ) » E C D E V » G R 0 T H • B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) J S A L I ( 7 ) » S A L 2 < 7 ) » A G R 1 » S O L D t 7 ) *P R O P ( 7 ) » O L O T ( 7 1*60) * P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V ( 7 ) » D E V ( 7 ) .CON(7) » T O T ( 7 ) »S3 I D ( 7 ) » H A P Y ( 7 ) » D I S A T * O R I G 2(7)»TOLOT»F3 C O M M O N T H R S H » X L A R G » S M A L L » A K » P R O F »A V L N D ( 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S ( 7 ) » I A S I Z E ( 7 ) » D M A N D ! 7 ) . X X K » X X L • X T • X X M * XXP » C O N S B » C O N S S » K O D E * D A R E A COMMON R E V P T J R E V S T » P T X I S A L T X COMMON COMMON  C C— C C  A L P H A • B E T A >T H E T A * F I N T * S I N T »MORTI»MORT2» FMORG GTOT  S U B R O U T I N E A D V A N C E S V A L U E S O F O L O T AND A C C U M U L A T E S T O T A L I T A L S O C A L C U L A T E S T O T A L R E V E N U E FROM P R O P E R T Y T A X E S S U M D E V I I ) » I . E . O L O T ( I . J ) * SUMMED OVER J A G E S T O L O T O L O T ( I » j ) SUMMED O V E R I AND J  REVPT=0. TOLOT=0.  DO  80 1=1*7  SUM=0. OWNED=OLOT(1*60)+OLOT(1*59) OLOT(1*60)=GWNED  SUM=SUM+OWNED  96  DO 7 0 K = 2 » 5 9 J=61-K OWNED = O L O T ( I » J - l )  O L O T ( I * J)=OWNED SUM=SUM+QWNED 70 '• C O N T I N U E OLOT(It1)=SOLD(I> S U M = S U M + S O L D I 1) DEV(I)=SUM TOLOT=TOLOT+SUM IF (PTX) 30>00J75 C— R E V E N U E ' R E V P T I S C O L L E C T E D E V E R Y Y E A R FROM P R O P E R T Y T A X ' P T X ' ON C— A L L OWNED L O T S D E V ( I ) ' E V A L U A T E D AT HHE A V E R A G E S E L L I N G P R I C E F O R C— LOTS OF THAT CATEGORY ' S A L l ( I ) ' 75 REVPT=REVPT+PTX*SALI(I)*SUM 80 CONTINUE RETURN END // D U P •DELETE AGING •STORE WS UA A G I N G 1  1  // FOR MARKT •ONE WORD I N T E G E R S S U B R O U T I N E MARKT DIMENSION D E S R ( 7 ) C 0 M MO N G M X i t I G M1» G S 2 » G M X 2 »G S C 2 t I G M 2 t G S 3 > G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 » 5 ) j S A V E S ( 6 * 5 ) tSAVEY(6 t> 5 ) » I CT COMMON GO * A * N Y* ACON » £ CON * BK » I Y COMMON D * P O P ( 8 ) »V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) • R MNIN( 10 0 ) *ECDEV» G R O T H » B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) »SAL 1 ( 7 ) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 « S O L D ( 7 ) » P R O P ( 7 ) > O L O T ( 7 1 » 6 0 ) » P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V ( 7 ) * D E V ( 7 ) » C O N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S B I D ( 7 } »H A P Y ( 7 ) » D I S A T i O R I G 2 ( 7 ) >TOLOT»F3 COMMON THRSH* X L A R G » SMALL *AK » P R O F • A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S ( 7 ) » IAS I Z E ( 7) »DMAND ( 7 ) » XXK. • X XL » XT » X X M » XXP « CONSB » C O N SS t KODE . DA REA COMMON R E V P T o R E V S T » P T X o S A L T X COMMON A L P H A * B E T A * T H E T A * F I N T » S I N T • M O R T 1 * M O R T 2 • F M O R G COMMON QTOT  C** C** C C C C C C C C C  DATA D E S R / l e » o 9 5 » « 8 5 » o 7 » » 5 » o 2 5 9 0 < » / DESR(I) P R O P O R T I O N O F B I D D E R S IN C A T E G O R Y ( 1 + 1 ) WHO WOULDCONS IDER BUYING LAND IN C A T E G O R Y I I F U N S A T I S F I E D IN T H E I R HIGHER C H O I C E S U B R O U T I N E S E L L S L O T S F R S L E TO B I D D E R S BIDN S A L ( I ) = P R 1 C E I N I T I A L L Y ASKED FOR L O T S OF CAT I GORY I SAL 1(I)=AVERAGE P R I C E ACTUALLY PAID S O L D ( I ) = N O « SOLD F R S L E U ) = N O o L O T S OF C A T E G O T Y 1 FOR S A L E B I D N ( K A T ) = N C B I D D E R S P R E P A R E D TO P A Y S 1 0 0 0 * K A T (MAXIMUM OF SlOOfOOO) S B I D ( I ) = N O o B I D D E R S I N I T I A L L Y B I D D I N G FOR LAND O F Q U A L I T Y I AND A B L E T O O F F E R A P R I C E G R E A T E R THAN A G R 1 e  97 AGR1=SALE P R I C E FOR UNDEVELOPED LAND. KAG=AGRl/1000.+.5 REVST=Q. DO 1305 1 = 1 . 7 SAL2( I)=SAL1( I ) TSBID=Q. SOLD( I ) = 0 o C NO. OF 3 I D D E R S FOR E A C H R E C R E A T I O N A L C A T E G O R Y IS CHANGED BY C PROPORTION D E S I R I N G LAND OF THAT Q U A L I T Y IF ( I - l ) 1 5 0 . 1 5 0 . 1 5 1 151 D E S I R = DESR( I ) DO 152 J = 1 » 1 Q 0 15 2 BIDN(J)=31DN(J)*DESIR 150 DO 230 J = K A G . 1 0 0 230 TSBID=TSBID+BIDN(J) SBIDtI)=TSBID C — ADD S A L E S TAX TO I N I T I A L S A L E P R I C E TO GET TRUE A S K I N G P R I C E SAL(I)=SAL(I)*(1s+SALTX) ASKPR = S A L ( I ) C DETERMINE I N I T I A L P R I C E CATEGORY FOR LOTS IN CATEGORY I C F I R S T D E T E R M I N E D O L L A R C A T E G O R Y ' ( K ) THAT IS COMPARABLE TO I N I T I A L C SALE PRICE. K=ASKPR/1000. +.5 IF(K)11.11.12 11 K = l 12 I F ( K - I O O ) 1 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 20 K = 100 C — • TOT(I = T O T A L = T O T A L NO. OF B I D D E R S FOR LAND OF Q U A L I T Y I AND C WITH B I D D I N G PROCE G R E A T E R THAN I N I T I A L P R I C E C J M I N ='MINIMUM FLOOR S A L E P R I C E BE LOW WHICH LAND WILL NOT BE SOLD 10 T O T A L =0. JMIN = 1 C A S H = 0.0 C F I N D TOTAL I N T E R E S T E D B I D D E R S AT THAT P R I C E DO 30 J = K . 1 0 0 30 T O T A L = T O T A L + BIDN( J J TOT(I)= T 0T A L C COMPARE NO. B I D D E R S WITH NO. L O T S TFRSL=FRSLE(I) IF ( T O T A L - T F R S L ) AO.40.50 C I F TOO FEW B I D D E R S . THEY A L L BUY AND P R I C E THEN DROPS 40 FRSLEtI)=TFRSL-TOTAL C PROP IS P R O P O R T I O N OF S A T I S F I E D B I D D E R S WHO ARE A B L E TO MATCH C INITIAL SALE PRICE PROP(I)=1o SOLD( I)=T O T A L C S T A R T REDUCING P R I C E U N T I L A L L L O T S SOLD OR P R I C E TOO L 0 W ( I E = J M 1 N ) J = K-l IF ( J ) 1 0 1 . 1 0 1 . 134 101 SAL1(I) = JMIN*1000 DO 102 J = K » 1 0 0 102 BIDN(J)=0. GO TO 130 134 JM1N = . 5 * S A L 2 ( I ) / 1 0 0 0 . IF(JMIN142.42.45 42 JMIN = 1 C  45 60 C 70  C 80  C C 50  98  I F ( J - J M I N ) I O O * 6 Q » 60 TFRSL=FRSLE(I) T BI D N = BI D N I J ) I F ( T F R S L - T B I D N ) 70 * 7 0 t 8 0 I F MORE B I D D E R S T H A N L O T S » S E L L A L L L O T S AND GO T O 1 0 0 "SOLDI I ) = S O L D ( I ) + T F R 5 L BIDN(J ) =T8IDN-TFRS L CASH=CASH+TFRSL*J*1000* F R S L E ( I ) = OoO GO T O 1 0 0 I F MORE L O T S THAN B I D D E R S * S A T I S F Y T H O S E B I D D E R S AND R E D U C E P R I C E SOLD(I)=SOLD(IJ+TBIDN F R S L E ( I ) = T F R S L - T B I DN CASH=CASH+TBIDN*J*10 00. BIDN(J) = 0 » 0 J aJ - l IF(J> 100* 100* 45 I F TOO MANY B I D D E R S * T H E Y B U Y A L L L O T S P R O R A T A ( N O T R I C H E S T BIDDERS F I R S T ) PROP! I ) = T F R S L / T O T A L SOLD( I) = T F R S L FRSLE(I)=0 a  100  C 110 C— 140  128 12 9 13 1 C C 130 130 5 C C C C 200 135  TPROP=PROP(I)  DO 1 1 0 J = K t 1 0 0 TBIDN=BIDN(J) T R A N S I S NO. T O T R A N S A C T I O N S IN T H I S C A T E G O R Y TRANS = TBIDN-»-TPROP CASH=CASH+TRANS*ASKPR BIDN(J)=TBIDN-TRANS IF ( S O L D ( I ) ) 1 3 1 * 1 3 1 * 140 D E D U C T S A L E S T A X T O G I V E T R U E V A L U E O F LAND REV=CASH*SALTX/ ( l e + S A L T X ) R E V S T - R E V S T+REV CASH=CASH-REV IF (CASH) 1 2 3 * 1 2 9 * 1 2 9 CASH=Oe CONTINUE SALKI)=CASH/SOLD(I) GO T O 1 3 0 S A L K I ) = 1Q01**JMIN ( l . - H A P Y ) I S T H E P R O P O R T I O N OF B I D D E R S WITH B I D D I N G P R I C E G R E A T E R THAN A G R 1 WHO C O U L D NOT B U Y HAPYt I ) = S O L D ( I ) / T S 6 I D CONTINUE I F SOME B I D D E R S F O R 1 S T C A T o P L O T S A R E U N S A T I S F I E D * I N C R E A S E CON UNHAP = 0. DO 1 3 5 I = 1*7 U N H A P I S T H E SUM OF T H E P E O P L E WHO WERE U N A B L E TO A C Q U I R E L A N K OF T H E Q U A L I T Y T H E Y D E S I R E D * D I S A T I S T H E P R O P O R T I O N OF T H E S E P E O P L E I N R E L A T I O N T O T H E NO* O R I G I N A L L Y I N T E R E S T E D (= S B I D l l J J o I F ( 1-1) 1 3 5 » 1 3 5 » 2 0 0 U N H A P = U N H A P + S 8 I D ( 1-1 ) * ( i o - H A P Y ( I - 1 ) ) * ( 1 . - D E S R ( I ) ) C O M I ) =ACOi\*EXP I BCON* ! 1 e - P R O P l I ) ) ) UNHAP = U N H A P + S B I D ( 7 ) * [ 1 * - H A P Y t 7 ) ) D I S A T «= U N H A P / S B I D I 1) DO 3 5 0 1 = 1 * 7  330 340 3 50  AVSP1=SAL1(1) • AVSP2=SAL2(I) IF (AVSPl+e1-AVSP2) 330*340*340 SAL(I)=AVSP1 6 0 TO 3 5 0 S A L ( I ) = A V S P 1 * ( l . + C 0 N ( I )*( (AVSP1-AVSP2)/AVSP1+•01) ) CONTINUE RETURN END '  // DUP •DELETE •STORE  WS  UA  MARKT MARKT  // F O R D E V E L •ONE WORD I N T E G E R S SUBROUTINE DEVEL COMMON G M X 1 * I G M 1 » G S 2 * GMX2 » G S C 2 » I G M 2 » G S 3 *GSC3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 * 5 ) * S A V E S ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 5 5 ) * I C T COMMON G 0 * A * N Y * A C 0 N * 3 C 0 N » B K » IY COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N < 1 0 0 ) » R M N I N ( 1 0 0 ) • E C D E V 1 G R O T H • b I D N ( 1 0 0 ) * F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) « S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) * P R u P ( 7 ) * U L O T ( 7 1 » 6 Q ) » P ( 6 Q ) » U N D V ( 7 ) » D E V I 7) i C O N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S 3 1 D ( 7 ) » H A P Y t 7 ) » D I S A T * O R I G 2(7)*TOLOT*F3 COMMON T H R S H * X L A R G * S M A L L » AK » P R O F * A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S ( 7 ) * 1 A S I Z E ( 7 ) > D M A N D ( 7 ) » X X K * X X L * XT « X X M » X X P * C O N S B » C G N S S * K O D E « D A R E A COMMON R E V P T » R E V S T » P T X » S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » B E T A » TH E T A » F I N T » S I N T * M O R T 1 > M O R T 2 » FMORG COMMON Q T Q T C — B U Y I N G PROCESS - L O O P OVER C A T E G O R I E S 0 I N I T I A L I S E S L U M P C O U N T E R ISLMP=0 DO 1 0 0 I = l i 7 C — C A L C U L A T E R A T E OF P R I C E A P P R E C I A T I O N . AND E X C E S S R A T E e C — M A R K E T ONLY I F R A T E OF A P P R E C I A T I O N E X C E E D S SOME T H R E S H O L D * C— NO - D E T E R M I N E AMOUNT OF LAND A V A I L A B L E AND E F F E C T I V E DEMAND R A T E B s ( S A L 1 ( I ) - S A L 2 ( I ) )/SAL1( I) RATES=RATEB-THRSH DMAN D ( I ) = ( S O L D( I ) + 1 e ) • ( 1 a -f- ( e 4 *-R A T E 8 ) ) DMAND(I)=DMAND(I)-FRSLE(I) IF(DMAND(I)-l»)20*20*30 20 DMAND(I)=0 GO TO 100 30 CONTINUE AVLOT=UNDV(I) C — C A L C U L A T E R A T E OF A T T A C K OF B I G S P E C U L A T O R S RAB = R A T E B * X L A R G + C O N S B C — A R E T H E R E ANY S M A L L T I M E D E V E L O P E R S IF (RATES) 4 0 * 5 0 * 5 0 40 CONTINUE RAS=0» BIG(I)=1* 8  G O •  so  T O  100  60  C O N T I N U E :  C — C A L C U L A T E C — W H I C H  I S  R A T E  O F  L A R G E  R A S = R AT E S * S M A  ••  A T T A C K  O F  S M A L L  D E V E L O P E R S  A N D P R O P O R T I O N  O F  D E V E L  S C A L E L L + C G N S S  B I G ( I ) =R A B / ( R A 8 + R A S ) C O N T I N U E  60.  R A = ( R A S + R A B ) * D M A N D ( I ) * A V L O T A V L N D ( I ) = A V L O T * ( l e + R A / I A V L O T * A K ) ) * * ( - A K ) ) C O N T I N U E  100  R E T U R N  110  E N D / /  D U P  • D E L E T E • S T O R E  D E V E L W S  U A  D E V E L  // FOR SUBDV •ONE WORD INTEGERS SUBROUTINE SUBDV {SZM 1 N » E X P R ? X X B * 2 LOTS) DIMENS ION XXB(7) *ZLOT S(7) COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 * G S 2 • GMX2 »GSC2 »IGM2*GS3 sGSC3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E S ( 6 * 5 ) » S A V E Y l 6 * 5 ) » I C T COMMON G O * A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K » l Y COMMON D » P 0 P ( 8 )* V F I N ( 10 0! »RMNIN( 100 ) »ECOEV»GROTH> BIDN(100) »F2 <100) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) *SAL1t 7) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R I * S O L D ( 7 ) >PROP(7) tQLOT(7 1*60) *P(60) » UNDV(7) *DEV(7) »CONI 7) » T O T ( 7 ) * S B I D ( 7 ) »HAPY(7) » D I S A T » O R I G 2(7)*TOLOT»F3 CO MMO N THRSH * XLARG * SM ALL * AK »PROF »AVLND( 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) * HO L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S ( 7 ) » 1ASIZE17) »DMAND(7) » X X K » X X L » X T » X X M > X X P » C O N S B > C Q N S S » K O D E * D A R E A COMMON R E V P T » R E V S T » P T X j S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » B E T A » THETA *F INT »S I.NT * MORT 1 *MORT 2 • FMORG COMMON QTOT C — S U B D I V I S I O N SUBROUTINE C— INITIALISE XL=(XXL-XT)/10. XP=«6931/(XXP-XXM) DO 300 1=1*7 C— I N I T I A L I S E FOR CLASS I WN=DMAND(I) IF ( W N - . l ) 150*150*3 3 CONTINUE XB=XXB(I) K= 0 SUMAL=0. XG=AVLND(I) IF (XG) 6 * 6 i 8 6 CONTINUE 7 XG-el*HOLD(I) HOLD(I)=HOLD(I)-XG BIG(I)=1 •  8  10 20 30 35 C —  C —  40 C — 41 50 43 C —  4 5 60 C — C — C —  63 65  70 C —  80 C —  SUMAL=XG CONTINUE XR=SAL(I) XK=XXK*XR XM = XK/ ( 1 0 * * X P * E X P (XP*XXM) ) KJ = 0 CONTINUE WS=XG/WN CONTINUE I F (WS-XTJ 100.30*30 I F (WS-SZMIN) 1 0 0 * 3 5 . 3 5 CONTINUE S Z H I N IS A MINIMUM LOT S I Z E - P O L I C Y R E S T R I C T I O N TREV=WN*XR TCOST*XB*WS*WN+XK*WN* ( l . + X L / J WS-XT ) ) +XM* I E XP ( XP*WN )-1 • ) TPROF=TREV-TCOST EXPR IS MINIMUM A C C E P T A B L E P R O F I T AS A P R O P O R T I O N OF TREV PRMIN=EXPR*TREV I F ( T P R G F - P R M I N ) 40 • 50 » 5 0 CONTINUE I N S U F F I C I E N T P R O F I T - REDUCE LOT S I Z E BY TEN P E R C E N T AND TRY A G A I N WS=*9*WS GO TO 20 CONTINUE IF(WM-1.)130*130*43 CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT P R O F I T A B L E DLOTS(I)=WN AS I Z E ( I ) = W S ZLOTS(I)=WN*WS XXB(I)=XXB(I)*(l.+2«*(ZLOTS(I)/UNDV(I))) I F ( X X B ( I ) - 1 0 0 0•) 4 * 5 . 5 CONTINUE XXB( I )=10Q0* CONTINUE I F (K) 7 0 * 7 0 * 6 0 CONTINUE HOLDINGS WERE ADDED - I E USED UP A L L O R I G I N A L A V L N D ( I ) UNDV(I)=UNDV(I)-AVLND(I) ANY LAND PUT ON THE MARKET FROM H O L D I N G S AND THEN NOT USED I S RETURNED TO H O L D I N G S XSLND=XG-WN*WS IF (XSLND) 63*65*6 5 XSLND=0. CONTINUE HOLD(I)=H0LD(IJ+XSLND GO TO 300 CONTINUE WORKED WITH O R I G I N A L A V L N D ( l ) ONLY - USED XG OF I T XG=WS*WN UNDV( I ) =UNDV( I ) - X G IF ( B I G ( I ) ) 300*300.BO CONTINUE THE B I G D E V E L O P E R S ADD A P R O P R T I O N OF E X C E S S LAND TO T H E I R H O L D I N G XSLND=(AVLND(I)-X6)*BIG(I)  1 ft ?  85 90 91. 92 100 110 C— C120  IF (XSLND) 8 5 * 9 0 * 9 0 XSLND=Oa CONTINUE HLDMX-.l*ORIG( I ) IF(HQLD(I)-HLDMX)9li91i92 CONTINUE HOLD( I ) =HOLD( I ) + X S L N D UNDV(I)=UNDV(I)-XSLND CONTINUE GO TO 3 0 0 CONTINUE IF ( B I G ( I ) ) 125*125 .110 CONTINUE T H E R E A R E B I G D E V E L O P E R S P R E S E N T - I F LAND I S A V A I L A B L E IN T H E I R H O L D I N G S I N C R E A S E X G BY 10 P E R C E N T AND TRY A G A I N ADLND=ol*XG IF t A D L N D - H O L D ( I ) ) 1 2 0 » 1 2 0 * 1 2 5 CONTINUE  C--  I N C R E A S E P R O P O R T I O N OB I B G D E V E L O P E R S BIG(I)=(BIG(I)*XG+ADLND)/(XG+ADLND) XG-XG+ADLND HOLD( I ) = H Q L D ( I J - A D L N D S U M A L = S U M A L+A D L N D GO TO 10 12 5 CONTINUE C ~ I N S U F F I C I E N T P R O F I T - NO H O L D I N G S L E F T C — . R E D U C E NUMBER OF L O T S S U P P L I E D AND RRY A G A I N WN= e9*WN 13 0 C— 140 C— C15 0  300  I F (WN-lu)  130*130*10  CONTINUE I N S U F F I C I E N T P R O F I T - NO H O L D I N G S L E F T - H A V E R E D U C E D S I Z E AND NUM IF (K) 1 5 0 * 1 5 0 * 1 4 0 CONTINUE R E T U R N H O L D I N G S T O H O L D ( I ) - D E C R E A S E P R O P O R T I O N OF B I G D E V E L O P E R S - DO NOT S U B D I V I D E BIG(I)=(BIG(I)#XG-SUMAL)/(XG-SUMAL) HOLD{ I ) = H O L D ( I J + S U M A L CONTINUE DLOTS{I)=0« ZLOTS(I)=0. ASIZE(I)=0« CONTINUE RETURN END  // DUP •DELETE •STORE  WS  UA  SUBDV SUBDV  // FOR P R V C Y • O N E WORD I N T E G E R S SUBROUTINE PRVCY DIMENSION T E M P ( 7 ) » C L A S S < 7 ) COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 » GS 2 » G M X 2 » G S C 2 » I G M 2 » G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 » 5 ) » S A V E S ! 6 » 5 1 » S A V E Y ( 6 »5 ) ».ICT COMMON GO » A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K » I Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 J * V F I N ( 1 0 0 ) »RMNI.N( 1 0 0 ) » EC DEV *GR OT H t B I DN I 10 0 ) . F 2 U 0 0 ) , COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) f S A L ! 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) , S A L 2 ( 7 ) » A G R 1 » S 0 L D ( 7 ) » P R O P ( 7 ) » O L O T ( 7 1 * 6 0 ) » P ( S 0 ) » U N - D V ( 7 ) * D E V ( 7 ) > C Q N ( 7 ) * T O T ( 7 ) »SdIu>< 7 ) » H A P Y ( 7) » D I S A T » 0 K 1 G 2 ( 7 ) *TOLOT * F 3 COMMON T H R S H » X L A R G » S M A L L » A K » P R O F » A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) * H O L D ( 7 ) * D L O T S ( 7 J * I A S I Z E ( 7 ! » D M A N D ( 7 ) ,XXK, .XXL » X T » X X M » X X P t C O N S b ' » C O N S S • KODE »DA RE A COMMON R £ V P . T » R E V S T » P T X » S A L T X COMMON A L P H A » B E T A » T H E T A » F I N T » S I N T • M O R T 1 » M O R T 2 » FMORG COMMON Q T O T C*« C— 10 C—  20 C**  C—  40 C— 50 C— 55 C** 60 C** 70 80  DATA C L A S S / 5 o » 1 . 7 > o 4 3 * e l 9 » 6 i l » » 0 7 » 0 / I N I T I A L I S E G L O S S TO Z E R O QLOSS=0» QAD=0» I N I T I A L I S E T E N P O R A R Y A R R A Y TO Z E R O DO 10 I = l » 7 TEMP(I)=0e CONTINUE LOOP OVER LAND C L A S S E S - DO C A L C U L A T I O N S O N L Y I F S U B D I V I S I O N O C C U R R E D DO 8 0 1 = 1 • 7 XNUM=DLOTS(I) IF (XNUM-cOl) 8 0 > 8 0 » 2 0 CONTINUE C A L C U L A T E QUALTY A R E A DEVELOPED T H I S YEAR KJ=8-I QAD=QAD+KJ*ASIZE(I)*DLOTS(I) AVSIZ=ASIZE(I) LOOP OVER S I Z E C L A S S E S FROM S M A L L E S T S I Z E UPWARDS U N T I L C O R R E C T DO 4 0 J = i » 6 JJ=8-J IF ( A V S I Z - C L A S S ( J J ) ) 5 0 * 5 0 * 4 0 CONTINUE. T C P S I Z E C L A S S - NO C H A N G E I N LAND C L A S S TEMPI I ) = T E M P ( 1 ) + X N U M GO TO 80 CONTINUE S I Z E C L A S S J J - D E T E R M I N E R E S U L T A N T LAND C L A S S I I = I+JJ-1B  IF  (II-7) 60*60*55  11=7 I I I S D E S T I N A T I O N C L A S S NUMBER CONTINUE TEMP(I I)=TEMP(II)+XNUM CALCULATE QUALITY AREA LOST DROP=II~I I F ( D R O P ) S O * 60 » 7 0 QLGS=XNUM*AVSIZ*DROP QLOSS=QLOSS+QLOS CONTINUE  C**  85 C**  86 87 C —  90  •  104  C A L C U L A T E Q U A L I T Y AREA REMAINING UNDEVELOPED QAR=0» DO 85 I = l » 7 JK=6-I QAR=QAR+JK*UNDV(1 ) -CONTINUE QTOT = IMPACT ON Q U A L I T Y QTOT=((QAD-QLQSS)/QAD)* IIQAR-QAD)/QAR) I F ( Q T O T ) 8 6 * 8 6 .87 QTQT=1e CONTINUE LOOP OVER LAND C L A S S E S DO 90 I = 1 • 7 DLOTS(I)=TEMP tI) F R S L E l I ) = F R S L E ( I )+DLOTS( I ) CONTINUE , ' RETURN END  / / DUP •DELETE •STORE  WS  UA  PRVCY PRVCY  / / FOR GRAPH •ONE WORD I N T E G E R S SUBROUTINE GRAPH ( Z L O T S ) DIMENSION Z L O T S ( 7 ) DIMENSION Y P ( 6 ) » Y S ( 6 ) * Y V A L ( 6 ) COMMON G M X 1 • I G M l » G S 2 * G M X 2 » G S C 2 * I G M 2 * G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 »5) . S A V E S ! 6 . 5 ) » S A V E Y ( 6 . 5 ) » I C T COMMON GO • A » N Y » A C O N » BOON » BK • I Y COMMON D » P O P ( 8 ) * V F I N ( 100) » R M N I N ! 1 0 0 ) * E C D E V . G R O T H * B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L I 7) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) * S A L 2 ( 7 ) * A G R 1 » S O L D ( 7 ) tPROP(7) »GLOT(7 1*60) * P ( 6 0 ) *UNDV( 7) * D E V ( 7 ) * C O N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S 3 I D ( 7 ) » H A P Y ( 7 ) * D I S A T * G R I G 2(7)»TOLOT»F3 COMMON THRSH * X L A R G * SMALL * A.K * PROF »A VLND ( 7 ) * B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) » D L O T S IAS I ZE ( 7 ) » D M A N D ( 7 ) ,XXi<.» XXL » XT • XXM » X X P * CONSB . CONSS • KODE » D A R E A CO MHON R E V P T »R E V S T » P T X » S A L T X COMMON A L P H A , B E T A » T H E T A * F I N T »SI NT » M O R T1 *MORT 2 » FMORG COMMON QTOT C —  5 C  C  G R A P H I C A L UOTPUT S U B R O U T I N E - P L O T S ONLY RY=I Y DO 4 0 1=1*5 IF ( 1 - 3 ) 5 * 4 0 * 5 CONTINUE S C A L E P O I N T S TO BE P L O T T E D YVAL( I ) = S A L 1 ( 1 ) Y P ( 1 ) = G S 3 + G S C 3 * ( l o - U N D V ( I )/ORIG( I) ) YS( I )=GS2 + G S C 2 * Z L O T S ( I ) . T E S T THAT P O I N T S ARE NOT O F F S C A L E GMX12=GMX1*2»  EVERY  FIFTH  YEAR  I F ( YVAL ( I ) -GMX 1 2 ) 2 0 * 2 0 * 10 Y V A L ( I ) = GMX 12 IF ( Y S ( I ) ~ G M X 1 2 ) 40*40*30 YS(I)=GMX12 CONTINUE S C A L E PERCENT BUYERS UNSATISFIED YM=GS3+GSC3*DISAT C** S C A L E IMPACT ON Q U A L I T Y (0*74000) YQ=CiTOT*740 0 0 * IF(YQ-GMX1)46*46*43 45 YQ=GMX1 46 CONTINUE C — IS IT A F I F T H YEAR IF ( I C T - 5 ) 50*60*60 50 CONTINUE C — •. I NC RE ME NT COUNTER ICT=ICT+1 GO TO 160 60 ' CONTINUE C PLOT LAND V A L U E S IF ( I Y - 5 ) 6 1 * 6 1 * 6 2 61 LJ = 2 GO TO 63 62 LJ--1 63 CONTINUE DO 80 1 = 1 * 5 IF ( 1 - 3 ) 65*80*65 65 CONTINUE KK=-2 DO 70 J = L J » 5 XPT=IY-6+J CALL FPLOT(KK»XPT* S A V E ( I * J ) ) KK-0 70 CONTINUE C A L L FPLOT (-1 * RY » Y V A L ( I) ) 80 . CONTINUE C** PLOT IMPACT ON Q U A L I T Y K.!<=~2 DO 8 5 J = L J »5 XPT=IY-6+J CALL FPLOT(KKtXPT»SAVEY(3»J)) KK = Q CALL POINT(1) 85 CONTINUE CALL FPLOT(0»RY*YG) CALL POINT(1) CALL FPLOT(-1»RY»YQJ C PLOT NEW LAND P L A C E D ON THE MARKET DO 1 1 0 1 = 1 * 5 IF ( 1 - 3 ) 90*110*90 90 CONTINUE KK = - 2 DO 1 0 0 J = L J * 5 XPT=lY-6+J CALL F P L O T ( K K » X P T » S A V E S ( I » J ) ) KK = 0 10 20 30 40 C—  -  CONTINUE C A L L FPLOT (-1iRY»YS( I ) ) 110 CONTINUE C P L O T PERCENT OF LAND D E V E L O P E D DO 140 1=1*5 I F ( 1-2) 120 *140* 1 2 0 120 CONTINUE KK=-2 DO 130 J = L J * 5 XPT=IY-6+J CALL FPLOT ( K K » X P T > S A V E Y ( I > J ) ) K,<=0 130 CONTINUE C A L L FPLOT (-1»RY*YP( I ) ) 140 CONTINUE C PLOT PERCENT BUYERS U N S A T I S F I E D KK=-2 DO 150 J = L J * 5 XPT=IY-6+J CALL F P L O T ( K K * X P T * S A V E ( 3 * J ) ) •KK=0 C A L L , POINT ( 0 ) 150 CONTINUE C A L L FPLOT (0 » RY * YM) C A L L POINT ( 0 ) C A L L FPLOT ( - 1 » R Y » Y M ) C R E S E T COUNTER ICT = 1 160 ' CONTINUE C STORE THIS YEAR'S R E S U L Y S SAVEY(3*ICT)=YQ DO 180 1=1*5 IF ( 1 - 3 ) 1 7 0 * 1 8 0 * 1 7 0 170 CONTINUE SAVEYtI.ICT)=YP(I ) SAVES(I * I C T ) = Y S ( I ) SAVE(I»ICT)=YVAL( 1 ) 180 CONTINUE S A V E ( 3 » I C T ) = YM RETURN END // DUP •DELETE GRAPH •STORE WS UA GRAPH  106  100  ,  •  // FOR G U L F 1 • I O C S ( C A R D . 1 1 3 2 PR I N T E R . P L O T T E R ) •ONE WORD I N T E G E R S DIMENSION I Y E A R 1 1 1 ) COMMON G M X 1 » I G M 1 » GS2 » G M X 2 • G S C 2 » I G M 2 » G S 3 *GSC3 COMMON S A V E ( 6 . 5 ) > S A V E S ( 6 . 5 ) . S A V E Y ( 6 . 5 ) . I CT  107 COMMON G O » A » N Y » A C O N » B C O N » B K » ! Y COMMON D * P O P ( 6 ) . V F I N ( 10 0) .RMNIN I 1 0 0 ) . E C D E V . G R O T H . B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) . F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R 5 L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) » S A L 1 ( 7 ) . S A L 2 ( 7 ) . A 6 R 1 » S O L D I 7 ) » P R O P ( 7 ) I O L O T I 7 1 . 6 0 ) > P ( 6 0 ) .UNDVt 7 ) .DEV< 7) » C O N ( 7 ) » T 0 T ( 7 ) » S B I D 1 7 ) » H A P Y 1 7 ) . D I S A T % OR I G •2(7).TOLOT.F3 • COMMON T H R S H * X L A R G • S M A L L >'AK » P R O F »A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7) > D L O T S ( 7 ) 1A S I Z E { 7 ) »D M A N D ( 7 1 » X X K » X X L • X T • X X M» X X P » C Q N S B » C G N S S » K O D E »DA R E A COMMON R E V P T . RE V S T . P T X » S A L T X COMMON' A L P H A . B E T A • T H E T A i F I N T > S I N T > M O R T 1 » M 0 R T 2 » F M O R G COMMON Q T O T  C— 101  102 10 11 C— 21 20 901 C  D A T A I Y E A R / 1 9 0 0 » 1 9 1 0 • 1 9 2 0 » 1 9 3 0 » 1 9 4 0 . 19 5 0 » 196 0» 1 9 7 0 » 1 9 8 0 » 19 9 0 . 2 0 0 0/ READ ( 2 * 1 0 1 ) O R I G READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) F R S L E READ A S I Z E READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) A S I Z E FORMAT ( S F 1 0 . 0 ) READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) S A L 1 READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) S A L 2 WRITE ( 3 . 1 0 2 ) FORMAT ( ' 1 I N I T I A L S A L E P R I C E S ' ) WRITE (3.101) SAL1 READ ( 2 . 1 0 ) A.ACCN.BCON.AK.NY FORMAT ( 4 F 1 0 « 5 » I 1 0 ) WRITE ( 3 . 1 1 ) F O R M A T ( / 5 X j 'A » 7 X . A C O N . 6 X . B C C N ' * 8 X . » A K » 1 0 X » N Y ) WRITE ( 3 . 1 0 ) A.ACON.BCON.AK.NY READ D E V E L O P M E N T S U B R O U T I N E P A R A M E T E R S READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) X X K . X X L . X T . X X M » X X P . X L A R G tSMALL.THRSH WRITE ( 3 . 2 1 ) FORMAT ( / 6 X XXK s 9 X . ' X X L ' . 9 X . 'XT' s 9X . XXM . 9 X . X X P " . 9 X » X L A R G s 17X. SMALL » 7X. T H R S H ' ) W R I T E ( 3 . 2 0 ) XXK * X X L • X T • X X M 9 XXP » X L A R G . S M A L L » T H R S H FORMAT ( 8 F 1 2 . ? ) WRITE ( 3 . 9 0 1 ) FORMAT (/' H E C T A R E S O F LAND A V A I L A B L E ) WRITE ( 3 . 1 0 1 ) ORIG GMX2 S C A L E S T H E D E V E L O P M E N T G R A P H READ ( 2 . 1 0 1 ) GMX1.GMX2 IGM1 = G M X l * . 0 0 i + 0 « 5 1  1  1  25 107  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  GS2  C—  1  - 1•1*GMX1  G S C 2 = GMX1---0 o 4 / G M X 2 IGM2 = G M X 2 * 0 « 0 1 + 0 o 5 GS3 = 1 « 6 * 6 M X 1 GSC3 = 0 » 4 * G M X l RY = 0 CALL SCALF ( 10«/100 • »5o/GMX1.-20•»-GMX1/10o) I F D A T A S W I T C H 14 I S ON. T H E A X E S A R E NOT P L O T T E D C A L L DATSW ( 1 4 . J K L ) GO TO ( 5 5 . 2 5 ) . J K L C A L L F C H A R ( 0 . . 0 o . <> 1 » * 1 5 . 1 * 5 7 ) CALL FPLOT . l + l » ~ 6 o » G M X 1 / 3 * ) WRITE (7.107) FORMAT ( ' P R I C E ( S 1 C 0 0 ) .' » 2 7 X . ' DE V E LOP MENT ' . 1 7X . ' P E R C E N T ' ) C A L L FCHAR ( 0 » » G * . « l » » 1 5 » O o ) C A L L FPLOT ( 0 .-2. .-GMX1/15•)  WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 0 ) I YEAR FORMAT ( 1 1 ( I 4 * 6 X ) ) ' Y=-GMX1*«0005 CALL FPLOT (0*-4o »Y) IP = 0 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP 115 FORMAT ( 1 3 ) Yl=GMXl/5 e DO 30 J = l i 5 Y=Y+Y1 C A L L F P L O T ( 0 *-4o .Y ) IP=Y*.001+«5 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP 30 CONTINUE Y=GS2 . CALL FPLOT ( 0 » - 4 * Y ) IP = 0 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) I P Y2=Yl*o6666 DO 4 0 J = l » 3 RJ = J Y=Y+Y2 CALL FPLOT (0»-4o »Y) IP=RJ*GMX2/3«+«5 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP 40 CONTINUE Y = GS3 C A L L F P L O T ( 0 * - 4 o »Y ) IP = 0 WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP DC 5 0 J = l * 2 Y=Y+Y1 CALL FPLOT (0*-4o »Y) 110  9  IP=IP+50  WRITE ( 7 * 1 1 5 ) IP 50 CONTINUE YMAX2=G52+GSC2*GMX2 YMAX3=2o0*GMXl C A L L F G R I D ( 0 > 0 « * 0.* 1 « , » 1 0 0 ) C A L L F P L O T {2 * 1 0 0 • » G M X 1 ) C A L L F P L O T ( - 1 t 0 d *GMX1 ) . C A L L F G R I D ( 0 » 0 o » G S 2 » 1» * 1 0 0 ) C A L L F P L O T (2 >100 « » Y M A X 2 ) C A L L F P L O T (-1 * 0 • > Y M A X 2 ) CALL FGRID { 0 » 0 « t G S 3 » 1.»100) CALL FPLOT ( 2 » 1 0 0 » » Y M A X 3 ) C A L L F P L O T (-1» 0•* Y M A X 3 ) C A L L F G R I D ( 3 * 0 » » Y M A X 3 *•0 4* GMX1 * 10 ) CALL FGRID { 3 * 0 • » Y M A X 2 » 1 0 0 • * G S C 2 » I G M 2 ) C A L L F G R I D ( 3 » 0 o * G M X 1 » 1 0 0 0 . t IGM1) 55 C A L L F P L O T ( 0 »Oo » 0« ) CALL INITL C A L L INCOM CALL LINK(GULF2) END // DUP  • DELETE GULF I • STOREC I WS UA G U L F 1 • LOC A L * S F 1 0 » I N I T L . I N C O M  109 1  // F O R G U L F 2 •IOCS(1132 PRINTER*TYPEWRITER.KEYBOARD) •ONE WORD I N T E G E R S DIMENSION SUMDL(7) DIMENSION AVEGI (7 1 DIMENSION X X B ( 7 ) * Z L O T S ( 7 ) " COMMON G M X 1 * I G M 1 » G S 2 * G M X 2 » G S C 2 * IGM2 * G S 3 » G S C 3 COMMON S A V E ( S . 3 ) * S A V E S ! 6 . 5 ) * S A V E Y ( 6 * 5 ) . I C T CO MMO N G O * A * N Y * A C 0 N * B CO N * B K . I Y COMMON D . P O P ( 8 ) » V F I N ! 10 0) » R M N I N ( 1 0 0 ) * E C D E V » G R O T H * B I D N ( 1 0 0 ) » F 2 ( 1 0 0 ) COMMON F R S L E ( 7 ) » S A L ( 7 ) * S A L 1 I 7) » S A L 2 ( 7 ) * A G R 1 . S O L D ( 7 ) » P R O P ( 7 ) . O L O T ( 7 1 * 6 0 ) . P ( 6 0 ) » U N D V l 7 ) . D E V ( 7 ) . C O N ( 7 ) » T O T ( 7 ) » S B I D ( 7 ) »H A P Y ( 7 ) * D I S A T * OR I G 2(7) » TOLOT.F 3 COMMON T H R S H * X L A R G . S M A L L • A K . P R O F » A V L N D ( 7 ) » B I G ( 7 ) » H O L D ( 7 ) * D L O T S ( 7 ) * 1 A S I Z E I 7 ) *DMAND(7) » X X K . X X L * X T » X X M * X X P * C O N S B » C O N S S * K O D E » D A R E A COMMON R E V P T . R E V S T . P T X . S A L T X C0MMON A L P H A . B E T A . T H E T A s F I N T » S I N T * M 0 R T 1 » M O R T 2 . F M O R G COMMON Q T Q T DATA SUMDL/7*Oo/ CALL SCALF (10./100•»5•/GMX1»0•»0eJ  SZMIN=.l EXPR=.l  815 C—  1 2 C 240 C** C 300  • DO 8 1 5 1 = 1 * 7 XXB(I)=100o ZLOTS(I)=0. CONTINUE I N I T I A L I S E VECTOR OF PROBABILITY OF RESALE C A L L PROBS C A L L MORTG DO 9 9 IY = l . N Y I F ( I Y - 6 6 ) 2 * 1 .2 PAUSE CONTINUE RY=IY I F D A T A S W I T C H 14 I S ON* PROGRAM D O E S NOT T E S T C A L L DATSW ( 1 4 * J K L ) GO T O ( 2 5 0 » 2 4 0 ) » J K L CONTINUE D A T A S W I T C H 0 C O N T R O L S A D D I T I O N OF NEW LAND WHEN D A T A S W I T C H 0 I S ON J 0 = 1 * WHEN O F F J 0 = 2 CALL DATSW(O.JKL) GO TO ( 3 0 0 * 6 0 0 ) . J K L CALL FPLOT (0*RY*OoO) C A L L F P L O T ! 2 » R Y » 2 • 0 * GMX 1 ) CALL FPLOT(1>RY.2o0*GMX1) W R I T E ( 1 . 6 0 ) UNDV  .^ OTHER SWITCHES  305 310 500 80 0 40 0 600 C** 610 615 616  6 20 C** 625 627  .  630 C—" C— C— 635 640 645  65 0 ,  110 W R I T E ( 3 » 3 0 5 ) IY FORMAT (/• H E C T A R E S OF NEW LAND E N T E R I N G IN Y E A R ' 9 1 3 / ) WRITE. ( 1 9 3 1 0 ) FORMAT ( ' E N T E R C A T E G O R Y 9 S P A C E 9 NO 0 OF H E C T A R E S ' ) DO 4 0 0 I = 1 » 7 READ ( 6 . 5 0 0 ) I t AAAAA FORMAT ( l i t I X 9 F l O o O ) LAND=AAAAA WRITE ( 3 t 8 0 0 ) I t L A N D FORMAT ( ' 0 ' t I 1 1 I 1 0 ) ORIG(I)=ORIG(IJ+LAND UNDV(I)=UNDV(IJ+LAND CONTINUE C A L L DATSW ( O t J O ) GO TO ( 3 0 0 9 6 0 0 ) t J O CONTINUE T Y P E OF P O P U L A T I O N GROWTH A F T E R 1 9 6 6 C O N T R O L L E D BY D A T A S W I T C H 2 C A L L DATSW ( 2 »J K L ) GO TO ( 6 1 0 t 6 2 0 ) » J K L WRITE ( l t 6 1 5 ) FORMAT ( ' E N T E R P O P N e GROWTH R A T E - o O X X ' ) READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) GROTH FORMAT ( F 1 0 * 0 ) C A L L F P L O T (-2 » R Y » 0 . ) C A L L P O I N T (1 ) C A L L F P L O T ( + 19 RY * 0 8 ) CONTINUE T Y P E QF E C O N O M I C GROWTH A F T E R 1 9 6 1 C O N T R O L L E D BY D A T A S W I T C H 3 C A L L DATSW ( 3 9 J K L ) GO TO ( 6 2 5 t 6 3 0 ) 9 J K L WRITE ( l t 6 2 7 ) FORMAT ( ' E N T E R E C O N O M I C GROWTH R A T E - e O X X ' ) READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) ECDEV C A L L F P L O T (-2.RY.Qo ) C A L L POINT (1 ) CALL FPLOT (+l*RYtOo ) CONTINUE D A T A S W I T C H 4 C O N T R O L S P R O P O R T I O N OF P E O P L E I N T E R E S T E D I N B U Y I N G OPTIMUM INCOME. LAND AND O P T I M U M I N C O M E B R A C K E T . E N T E R MAXIMUM P R O P O R T I O N AND C A L L DATSW ( 4 . J K L ) GO T O ( 6 3 5 . 6 6 0 ) > J K L WRITE ( 1 . 6 4 0 ) FORMAT ( ' E N T E R P M A X ' ) R E A D ( 6 . 6 1 6 ) PMAX WRITE ( 1 . 6 4 5 1 FORMAT ( ' E N T E R O P I N C . WITH D E C I M A L ' ) READ ( 6 . 6 1 6 ) OPINC DO 6 5 0 1 = 1 » 1 0 0 XX=I F 2 1 I ) = P M A X * E X P ( l - o & 3 6 6 /OP I N C * * 2 ) * ( X X - O P I N C ) * * 2 ) CONTINUE CALL FPLOT (-2.RY.0o ) C A L L P O I N T (3 ) C A L L FPLOT ( 1.RY.O. ) C A L L DATSW ( 4 . J 4 )  660 C— 66 5 670  67 5 C— 685 690 691 692 693  69 5 C— 730 731 73 2  GO TO ( 6 3 5 * 6 6 0 ) * J 4 CONTINUE DATA S W I T C H 5 - MAXIMUM DEMAND CONSTANT A C A L L DATSW ( 5 * J K L ) GO TO ( 6 6 5 * 6 7 5 ) * J K L WRITE ( 1 * 6 7 0 ) FORMAT { ' M A X , , P R O P O R T I O N OF P E O P L E I N T E R E S T E D READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) A C A L L FPLOT (-2 * R Y * 0 . ) C A L L POINT ( 4 ) C A L L FPLOT ( 1 * R Y » 0 « ) CONTINUE DATA S W I T C H 6 C O N T R O L S PROPERTY TAX AND S A L E S C A L L DATSW (6*JKL) GO TO ( 6 8 5 > 6 9 5 ) * J K L WRITE ( 1 * 6 9 0 ) FORMAT ( ' E N T E R P R O P E R T Y TAX RATE 0.-.059 ) READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) P T X C A L L PROES C A L L MORTG WRITE ( 1 * 6 9 3 ) FORMAT ( ' E N T E R S A L E S T A X ' ) READ ( 6 * 6 1 6 ) S A L T X C A L L FPLOT (-2 »RY »0 « ) C A L L POINT (5 ) C A L L FPLOT ( 1 » R Y » 0 . ) CONTINUE DATA SWITCH 8 C O N T R O L S MORTGAGE O P T I O N S C A L L DATSW (8*JKL)  740 745  7 55 760  IS.  LAND')  TAX .  1  GO  TO  (730*735)»JKL  WRITE ( 1 * 7 3 1 ) FORMAT ( ' ( A L P H A ) ( B E T A ) ( T H E T A ) (A I NT 1 ) (A I NT 2 ) (MORT1 ) (MORT2) READ ( 6 * 7 3 2 ) A L P H A * E E T A > T H E T A *FI N T * S I N T . A M R T 1 * A M R T 2 FORMAT ( 7 F 7 . 0 ) MORT1=AMRT1 MORT 2 = AMRT 2 F I NT = F1 N T * . 5  735 C—  IN GULF  SINT=SINT*.5 C A L L MORTG C A L L FPLOT ( - 2 * R Y » 0 . ) CALL POINT(A) C A L L FPLOT ( 1 » R Y » Q « ) CONTINUE DATA SWITCH 9 C O N T R O L S S U B D E V E L O P M E N T OPTIONS C A L L DATSW ( 9 * J K L ) GO TO ( 7 4 0 . 7 5 5 ) . J K L WRITE ( 1 * 7 4 5 ) FORMAT ( ' ( X X K M X X L ) ( XT ) ( XXM MXXP )') READ ( 6 * 7 3 2 ) X X K . X X L . X T . X X M » X X P C A L L FPLOT ( - 2 » R Y . 0 . ) C A L L POINT ( 4 ) C A L L FPLOT ( i . R Y » 0 . ) CONTINUE C A L L DATSW ( 1 0 . J K L ) GO TO ( 7 6 0 * 7 7 0 ) t J K L CONTINUE  1  )  112 WRITE (1*765) 765 FORMAT I ' ( T H R S H ) ( X L A R G ) ( S M A L L ) (CONSB) (CONSS) » ) READ ( 6 * 7 3 2 ) THRSH » X LARG ? SMALL * CONSB * CONSS 770 CONTINUE C — DATA SWITCH 11 - D I S P E R S I O N C O E F F I C I E N T OF - V E B I N O M I A L C A L L DATSW ( 1 1 » J K L ) GO TO ( 7 8 0 * 7 9 0 ) » J K L 760 CONTINUE WRITE (1*785) 78 5 FORMAT ( 'AK ' ) READ .{ 6*616 ) AK 79 0 CONTINUE C — DATA SWITCH 12 - S Z M I N AND EXPR C A L L DATSW ( 1 2 * J K L ) GO TO ( 3 0 1 * 8 1 0 ) « J K L 801 CONTINUE WRITE ( 1 * 8 0 5) 805 FORMAT ( ( S Z M I N ) ( E X P R )') READ ( 6 * 7 3 2) S Z M I N * E X P R '810 CONTINUE 2 50 CONTINUE CALL POPIN C A L L BUYER C A L L MARKT KGDE=1 CALL DEVEL I F (KODE) 1 1 1 1 1 * 2 2 2 2 2 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CONTINUE C A L L SUBDV ( S Z M I N » EX PR * XXS ? ZLGT S) C A L L PRVCY 2 2 222 CONTINUE DO 255 1=1*7 • SUMDH1)=SUMDL( I )+DLOTS( I ) 2 55 CONTINUE C A L L AGING C A L L GRAPH (ZLOTS) C A L L DATSW I 1 3 * J K L ) GO TO ( 2 4 * 2 6 ) » J K L 24 CONTINUE DO 25 1=1*7 25 WRIT E ( 3 . 6 0 ) AVLND( I ) »SAL( I> » D M A N D ( I) * AS IZ E t I ) * DLOT SI I) » S A L 1 ( 1 ) * 1H0LD( I ) * X X 2 ( I ) » P R O P ( I ) .QTOT 26 CONTINUE I F ( I Y - 5 * ( I Y / 5 ) ) 9 9 . 3 0 . 99 30 WRITE ( 3 . 4 0 ) IY> T O L O T . D 40 FORMAT (//' YEAR ' 1 3 . ' T O T A L L O T S F 8« 0 * 'REGIONAL P O P . ' F I O . O / ) WRITE (3.15) 15 FORMAT ( / / • NO. D E V E L . ' »3X *'» P E R C E N T » » 3 X . ' P E R C E N T ' » 3X »' AVERAGE ' * 3 X » 1'PERCENT ' » 3X . NEW L O T S ' * 6 X » ' U N S O L D ' * 3 X . L O T S ' .5X. ' L O T S ' . 3X» 'AVE R A G 2 E ' » 4 X . 'AVERAGE•) WRITE (3.16) 16 FORMAT (4X> • L O T S ' .6X . 'DEVELOPED B U Y E R S ' .3X» ' P R I C E ' . 5 X » ' P R I C E ' • I 9 X 1 . ' L O T S ' « 3 X » 'FOR S A L E .3X« 'SOLD' » 3X » GROSS ' » 6 X . 'LOT ) WRITE (3.17) 17 FORMAT ( 2 3 X . ' S A T I S F I E D ' » 1 1 X * ' I N C R E A S E DEVELOPED'»31X.'INCOME'»5X» l'SIZE'/) 1  1  1  1  1  1  1  

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