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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Urban characteristics as the determinants of air passenger generation Ghosh, Ranen Kumar 1973

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URBAN C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S AS THE DETERMINANTS OF A I R PASSENGER GENERATION by RANEN KUMAR GHOSH B . A r c h . , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l c u t t a , 1 9 5 9 . A T H E S I S SUBMITTED IN P A R T I A L FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n th8 S c h o o l o f C o m m u n i t y a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s a s c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE U N I V E R S I T Y OF B R I T I S H COLUMBIA May, 1 9 7 3 . In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o lumbia, I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f Lj0yy\ The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada ABSTRACT B o t h t h e p r o c e s s o f d e s i g n i n g b e t t e r p l a n s a n d t h e p r o c e s s o f e v a l u a t i n g p l a n s d e p e n d h e a v i l y on a d e t a i l e d u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s among u r b a n a c t i v i t i e s . T h i s t h e s i s e x p l o r e s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n some o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f u r b a n a r e a s a n d t h e i r a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . The r e s e a r c h m e t h o d o l o g y c o n s i s t s o f a r e v i e w o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e on a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . S e c o n d l y , d a t a f r o m t h i r t y - n i n e C a n a d i a n c i t i e s a r e u s e d f o r e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s . F a c t o r a n a l y s i s , g r o u p i n g a n a l y s i s a n d m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s a r e e m p l o y e d . The r e s u l t s e x p l a i n t h a t , i n g e n e r a l , t h e f a c t o r o f u r b a n i z a t i o n p l a y s a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m u r b a n a r e a s . A l s o , f o r some c i t i e s , t h e t r a d e a n d s e r v i c e f u n c t i o n s d i s c o u r a g e a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n t o some e x t e n t . M o r e o v e r , t h i s s t u d y s u g g e s t s t h a t a v a i l a b l e t e c h n i q u e s o f a n a l y s i s c a n be u s e d s u c c e s s f u l l y , t o i m p r o v e u p o n t h o s e w h i c h a r e commonly u s e d i n d e v e l o p i n g p r e d i c t i v e e q u a t i o n s f o r a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . I t i s e v i d e n t f r o m ; t h e m o d e l s d e v e l o p e d i n t h i s s t u d y t h a t , f o r a g r o u p o f c i t i e s , t h e more t h e y a r e s i m i l a r i n t h e i r . c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , t h e b e t t e r i s t h e p r e d i c t i v e e q u a t i o n . F i n a l l y , t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s a n d l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h i s s t u d y h a v e b e e n d i s c u s s e d a l o n g w i t h t h e s u g g e s t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . i i i T A B LE OF CONTENTS P a g e L I S T OF TABLES v L I S T OF FIGURES v i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v / i i C h a p t e r 1. INTRODUCTION 1 D u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r R e s e a r c h . . . . . 1 The P r o b l e m . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 The G e n e r a l H y p o t h e s i s . . . 4 The R e s e a r c h A p p r o a c h 6 P r e v i e w «••-.-•-•-. 7 D e f i n i t i o n s 9 2. L I T E R A T U R E 13 N a t i o n a l T r e n d 13 The I n t e r c i t y L i n k a g e C o n c e p t 16 E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f C o m m u n i t i e s 19 L i n e a r R e l a t i o n s h i p t o U r b a n C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 21 C o n c l u s i o n s 24 3. METHOD OF A N A L Y S I S AND DATA 28 F a c t o r A n a l y s i s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 G r o u p i n g A n a l y s i s . . . 31 The V a r i a b l e s 33 D a t a 37 4. A N A L Y S I S 43 F a c t o r A n a l y s i s 43 i u C h a p t e r P a g e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s : M o d e l I 49 G r o u p i n g A n a l y s i s 51 R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s : M o d e l I I . • 55 5. CONCLUSIONS 58 R e s e a r c h F i n d i n g s . 5 8 I m p l i c a t i o n s o f R e s e a r c h F i n d i n g s . . . . . 6 0 Recommended A d d i t i o n a l R e s e a r c h 62 BIBLIOGRAPHY 6« APPENDIX - A 69 APPENDIX - B 74 B - 1 : F a c t o r A n a l y s i s 75 B-2 : M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s 85 B - 3 : G r o u p i n g A n a l y s i s 89 B-4: M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s f o r G r o u p I . 94 B-5: M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s f o r G r o u p I I 96 L I S T OF TABLES T a b l e P a g e 1• A i r P a s s e n g e r G e n e r a t i o n by C o m m u n i t y T y p e 8 2. E c o n o m i c C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f C o m m u n i t i e s • • • 20 3. F a c t o r L o a d i n g s o f E i g h t H y p o t h e t i c a l V a r i a b l e s 29 4. T h i r t y - t w o V a r i a b l e s 34 5. C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f New Y o r k J s A i r T r a v e l l e r s . . . . . . . . . 35 6. 1961 P o p u l a t i o n a n d A i r P a s s e n g e r V o l u m e s o f 39 C a n a d i a n C i t i e s . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 7. F a c t o r L o a d i n g s on 32 V a r i a b l e s a f t e r V a r i m a x R o t a t i o n . . . . . . . 44 8. S e v e n Homogeneous G r o u p s o f 39 C i t i e s 54 9. N a t i o n a l T r e n d o f U.S. B u s i n e s s A i r T r a v e l 70 1 0 . N a t i o n a l T r e n d o f U.S. P e r s o n a l A i r T r a v e l 71 1 1 . D a t a M a t r i x 72 V i L I S T OF FIGURES F i g u r e P a g e 1. R e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n C i t y S i z e a n d A i r P a s s e n g e r G e n e r a t i o n f o r 39 C a n a d i a n C i t i e s . . . 5 2. R e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n P e r c e n t a g e o f F a m i l i e s E a r n i n g $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 a Y e a r a n d A i r P a s s e n g e r G e n e r a t i o n f o r 39 C a n a d i a n C i t i e s . 5 3. D i a g r a m a t i c R e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f C o m m u n i t y C l a s s i f i c a t i o n . . . . 20 4. R e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f E i g h t H y p o t h e t i c a l V a r i a b l e s on Two F a c t o r s 29 5. L o c a t i o n o f 39 C i t i e s i n C a n a d a 39 6. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f 39 C i t i e s on F a c t o r s I & I I 46 7. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f 39 C i t i e s on F a c t o r s I I I & IV 46 8. P r o f i l e o f E r r o r I n c r e a s e i n G r o u p i n g P r o c e s s 52 9. P r o f i l e o f A v e r a g e F a c t o r S c o r e s o f G r o u p s I , I I & I I I . . . . 53 1 0 . P r o f i l e o f A v e r a g e F a c t o r S c o r e s o f G r o u p s I V , V, V I & V I I , , 5 3 u i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I w i s h t o e x p r e s s my s i n c e r e a p p r e c i a t i o n t o P r o f e s s o r P a u l R o e r f o r h i s e n e r g y a n d g u i d a n c e t h r o u g h o u t t h e w h o l e o f t h i s s t u d y . I t i s l a r g e l y b e c a u s e o f h i s e x c e l l e n t c r i t i c i s m t h a t t h e s t u d y e u o l u e d i n t o i t s p r e s e n t f o r m . T h a n k s a r e due t o many p e o p l e who p r o u i d e d i n s i g h t s a n d i n f o r m a t i o n d u r i n g t h e f o r m u l a t i o n a n d u n d e r t a k i n g o f t h e s t u d y . I n p a r t i c u l a r , I am i n d e b t e d t o D r . G. B r o w n o f t h e C i u i l E n g i n e e r i n g D e p a r t m e n t , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , The f i n a l m a n u s c r i p t was t y p e d by Donna V a i l l a n t , T h i s i s g r a t e f u l l y a c k n o w l e d g e d . F i n a l l y , I w o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k my w i f e L i l y whose p a t i e n c e , u n d e r -s t a n d i n g a n d e n c o u r a g e m e n t made t h e u n d e r t a k i n g a n d c o m p l e t i o n o f t h i s s t u d y p o s s i b l e . 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION J u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r R e s e a r c h A t one t i m e t h e a i r p o r t was s p a t i a l l y a n d f u n c t i o n a l l y m a r g i n a l t o t h e c i t y . B u t i n t h e c o u r s e o f i t s g r o w t h , t h e c i t y h a s e x p a n d e d b e y o n d t h e a i r p o r t d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no s p e c i a l a t t r a c t i o n i n t h a t d i r e c t i o n . H o w e v e r , s e v e r a l a t t r a c t i o n s do e x i s t . The a i r p o r t i t s e l f i s a l a r g e s o u r c e o f e m p l o y m e n t . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e l a b o u r n e c e s s a r y m e r e l y t o o p e r a t e t h e a i r p o r t a n d t h e a i r l i n e s , c o n s i d e r t h e c o m p l e x a u x i l i a r y s e r v i c e s c o n n e c t e d w i t h a i r p a s s e n g e r s a n d c a r g o b e f o r e d e p a r t u r e a n d u p o n a r r i v a l . T h e n t h e r e a r e h o t e l s , r e s t a u r a n t s , a n d e n t e r t a i n m e n t f a c i l i t i e s ; a s u b s t a n t i a l number o f p e o p l e v i s i t a i r -p o r t s s p e c i f i c a l l y f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s . F i n a l l y t h e r e e x i s t t h e c o m m e r c i a l a n d i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s t h a t g a t h e r i n t h e v i c i n i t y o f a i r p o r t s b e c a u s e t h e y r e q u i r e e a s y a c c e s s t o t h e m . A l l t h e s e f a c t o r s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e a i r p o r t now b e a r s a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same r e l a t i o n t o t h e c i t y a s t h e c e n t r a l r a i l r o a d t e r m i n a l d i d some d e c a d e s a g o . A l t h o u g h a u t o m o b i l e s r a t h e r t h a n a i r p l a n e s h a v e r e p l a c e d a c o n s i d e r a b l e a m o unt o f r a i l r o a d p a s s e n g e r t r a f f i c , t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n , a n d t h e f a c t t h a t a l a r g e r p e r c e n t a g e o f p e o p l e now t r a v e l , make t h e a i r p o r t a s i n t e n s i v e l y u s e d a s was t h e r a i l r o a d t e r m i n a l . " * " A i r p o r t s t o d a y a r e s e n s i t i v e t o t h e w a y s i n w h i c h t h e c i t y may c h a n g e , a n d t h e y i n t u r n i n f l u e n c e t h e s e c h a n g e s . I t i s o b v i o u s , t h e r e -f o r e , t h a t a i r p o r t s m u s t be p l a n n e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e o t h e r s e r v i c e s a n d f a c i l i t i e s o f c i t i e s . I n f a c t , p l a n n e r s i n l a r g e u r b a n a r e a s a r e 2 p r e s e n t l y f a c e d w i t h a number o f c o m p l e x p r o b l e m s , s u c h a s : t h e e x p a n s i o n o f e x i s t i n g a i r p o r t s , t h e l o c a t i o n o f new a i r p o r t s , t h e c o n t r o l o f new l a n d u s e p l a n s a r o u n d a i r p o r t s , a n d t h e c r e a t i o n o f e f f i c i e n t g r o u n d a c c e s s f a c i l i t i e s . T o d a y , e l e c t e d o f f i c i a l s f r e q u e n t l y f a c e demands f o r u r g e n t i m p r o v e -m e n t s i n a i r p o r t f a c i l i t i e s t o g e t h e r w i t h e x p a n d i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s i n t h e f i e l d s o f e d u c a t i o n , h e a l t h , s o c i a l s e c u r i t y , h o u s i n g e t c . How c a n t h e y e v a l u a t e a n a i r p o r t d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n ? T h i s r e q u i r e s a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f w h a t t h e c o m m u n i t y w i l l g a i n f r o m i t . O n l y when t h e y h a v e some u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e n a t u r e o f t h a t g a i n a n d c a n c o m p a r e i t w i t h t h e g a i n t h a t c o u l d be o b t a i n e d f r o m o t h e r p r o g r a m s ( s u c h a s h e a l t h , h o u s i n g e t c . ) c a n t h e y f e e l c o n f i d e n t i n m a k i n g d e c i s i o n s i n t h e b e s t i n t e r e s t s o f t h e c o m m u n i t y . 2 B a k e r & W i l m o t t e s u g g e s t t h a t t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s o f a n y a i r p o r t - a c c e s s d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n m u s t i n c l u d e a s o c i a l a n d e c o n o m i c s t u d y o f t h e c o m m u n i t y . The p u r p o s e o f s u c h a s t u d y i s : "To e s t a b l i s h w h i c h s o c i a l a n d e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s d e p e n d u p o n a i r t r a n s p o r t , a n d e s t i m a t e t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f c h a n g e s i n t h e l e v e l o f s e r v i c e o f a i r t r a n s p o r t , t h a t i s , t o d e t e r m i n e c h a n g e s i n s e r v i c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t w o u l d be i m p o r t a n t t o t h e a c t i v i t i e s t h a t u s e a i r t r a n s p o r t " . 3 T h u s , i t i s c l e a r t h a t b o t h t h e p r o c e s s o f d e s i g n i n g b e t t e r p l a n s a n d t h e p r o c e s s o f e v a l u a t i n g t h e s e p l a n s d e p e n d h e a v i l y on a d e t a i l e d 4 u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t u r b a n a c t i v i t i e s . I t i s f B l t , t h e r e f o r e , a s a i r p o r t d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n s a r e p - i a y i n g a n i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n t h e t o t a l c o m m u n i t y p l a n , t h a t p e r h a p s t h e t i m e h a s come t o d e t e r m i n e w h i c h u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s h e l p g e n e r a t e a i r p a s s e n g e r s . The P r o b l e m As a r e s u l t o f t h e d i v e r s i f i e d i n t e r e s t s o f r e s e a r c h e r s , many h y p o t h e s e s c o n c e r n i n g a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n h a v e b e e n f o r m u l a t e d a n d 3 t e s t e d . E c o n o m i s t s h a v e c o n c e n t r a t e d t h e i r e f f o r t s on r e l a t i n g a i r t r a v e l t o f a r e s , o r s u c h e c o n o m i c i n d i c e s a s t h e G r o s s N a t i o n a l P r o d u c t a n d D i s p o s -5 a b l e P e r s o n a l I ncome , e t c . T h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e a i r t r a v e l i n d u s t r y h a v e a t t r i b u t e d t h e a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n t o s u c h f a c t o r s a s s p e e d , s a f e t y , s e a t i n g c a p a c i t y , s c h e d u l i n g a n d p a s s e n g e r s e r v i c e s . ^ B u t a m a j o r p o r t i o n o f t h e r e s e a r c h d o n e on t h e s u b j e c t h a s b e e n b a s e d on t h e i n t e r c i t y l i n k a g e c o n c e p t , w h i c h e n c o m p a s s e s a number o f f i e l d s , i n c l u d i n g t h o s e o f t r a n s p o r -t a t i o n , e n g i n e e r i n g , e c o n o m i c s , p l a n n i n g , c o m m u n i c a t i o n s , g e o g r a p h y a n d s o c i o l o g y . ^ The m o d e l u s e d i n t h e i n t e r c i t y l i n k a g e c o n c e p t i s b a s i c a l l y t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l , w h i c h a s s u m e s t h a t a i r t r a f f i c b e t w e e n two c o m m u n i t i e s i s d i r e c t l y p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n p r o d u c t o f t h e s e c o m m u n i t i e s a n d i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e t r a v e l f r i c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e m . A l t h o u g h t h e v a l i -d i t y o f t h i s h y p o t h e s i s h a s b e e n d e m o n s t r a t e d i n a n u mber o f e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s , some r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e c r i t i c i z e d t h e u s e o f p o p u l a t i o n s i z e a s a m e a s u r e o f a c o m m u n i t y ' s p o t e n t i a l a i r t r a f f i c f l o w on t h e g r o u n d s t h a t s i z e a l o n e d o e s n o t r e f l e c t t h e s o c i a l o r e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e s o f t h e c o m m u n i t y , f a c t o r s t h a t a r e b e l i e v e d t o be o f i m p o r t a n c e i n t h i s q u e s t i o n . I n r e s p o n s e t o t h i s c r i t i -c i s m , some r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e s u g g e s t e d t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e m u l t i p l i c a t i v e g f a c t o r t o t h e s i z e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . H o w e v e r , t h e l i t e r a t u r e s u g g e s t s t h a t , " t h e r e h a s b e e n no s u f f i c i e n t e v i d e n c e a d v a n c e d t o d e m o n s t r a t e t h a t p o p u l a t i o n s i z e i n i t s e l f i s a r e l i a b l e e n o u g h i n d e x o f a c o m m u n i t y ' s a b i l i t y t o p r o d u c e a n d g a t t r a c t t r i p s . . . " . A number o f o t h e r a n a l y t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s h a v e a l s o b e e n t r i e d i n t h e p a s t t o d i s c o v e r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a i r p a s s e n g e r t r a f f i c f r o m u r b a n a r e a s , a n d t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e a r e a s t h e m s e l v e s . " * " ^ U n f o r t u -n a t e l y , i n m o s t o f t h e s e s t u d i e s o n l y a f e w u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s h a v e b e e n 4 d e a l t w i t h . T h e r e f o r e , t h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o i n v e s t i g a t e a l a r g e n umber o f u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , a n d t h e n t o e s t a b l i s h t h e i r e f f e c t u p o n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . The G e n e r a l H y p o t h e s i s The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e s i z e o f a c o m m u n i t y a n d i t s a i r p a s s e n -g e r g e n e r a t i o n i s w e l l documented."'""'" The 1 9 6 1 p o p u l a t i o n s o f 39 C a n a d i a n c o m m u n i t i e s a r e p l o t t e d i n F i g u r e 1, a g a i n s t t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e t o t a l v o l u m e o f d o m e s t i c a i r p a s s e n g e r s g e n e r a t e d i n t h e same y e a r . The v o l u m e o f p a s s e n g e r s r e p r e s e n t s t h e t o t a l n u mber o f p a s s e n g e r s t r a v e l l i n g t o a n d f r o m e a c h c o m m u n i t y . The g r a p h c o n f i r m s t h a t c i t y s i z e i s an i n d i c a t o r o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a i r t r a v e l a n d i n c o m e h a s a l s o b e e n a s u b -j e c t o f many s t u d i e s . I n 1 9 5 5 , t w e n t y - o n e p e r c e n t o f t h e a i r p a s s e n g e r s t r a v e l l i n g t o a n d f r o m New Y o r k w e r e i n t h e f a m i l y i n c o m e b r a c k e t o f $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 -12 a n d - o v e r . I n 1 9 6 2 , 85 p e r c e n t o f U.S. a i r p a s s e n g e r s w e r e i n t h e $ 7 , 5 0 0 -a n d - o v e r i n c o m e b r a c k e t , a n d 60 p e r c e n t w e r e i n t h e $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 - a n d - o v e r i n c o m e 13 b r a c k e t . I t b e c o m e s c l e a r t h a t t h e t e n d e n c y a n d a b i l i t y t o t r a v e l by a i r a r e d e f i n i t e l y r e l a t e d t o i n c o m e . I n F i g u r e 2 t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e number o f a i r p a s s e n g e r s a n d t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f f a m i l i e s i n f l O , 0 0 0 - a n d - o v e r i n c o m e b r a c k e t s f o r 39 C a n a d i a n c i t i e s i s s h o w n . The g r a p h c l e a r l y i l l u s -t r a t e s t h a t h i g h f a m i l y i n c o m e i s a l s o an i n d i c a t o r o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a -t i o n . S i m i l a r l y , a number o f s t u d i e s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s o f a c o m m u n i t y a r e g o o d i n d i c a t o r s o f t h e a m ount o f a i r p a s s e n g e r t r a f f i c i t g e n e r a t e s . The i n d i c e s u s e d i n t h e s e s t u d i e s a r e e i t h e r t h e e m p l o y m e n t o r t h e p e r c a p i t a s a l e s i n d i f f e r e n t e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s . The s t u d i e s by t h e U.S. C i v i l A e r o n a u t i c s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n d i v i d e d a number o f c i t i e s i n t o s e v e r a l A i r P a s s e n g e r Volume i n Thousands FIGURE 1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CITY SIZE AND AIR PASSENGER GENERATION FOR • 39 CANADIAN CITIES FIGURE 2 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PERCENTAGE OF FAMILIES EARNING $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 OR OVER A YEAR AND AIR RASSENGER GENERATION FOR 39 CANADIAN CITIES Note: F o r c i t y names and o t h s r d a t a see T a b l e s 6 & 1 1 . 6 g r o u p s on t h e b a s i s o f p e r c a p i t a w h o l e s a l e s a l e s a n d e m p l o y m e n t i n m i n i n g a n d m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s . T h e s e s t u d i e s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e r a t e o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e s w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e i n w h o l e s a l e a c t i v i t y . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , i t d e c r e a s e s a s t h e a c t i v i t y i n i n d u s t r y , i . e . m i n i n g a n d m a n u f a c t u r i n g , i n c r e a s e s . I t i s a p p a r e n t f r o m a p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n t h a t a number o f u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s e x e r t some i n f l u e n c e on t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f a i r p a s s e n -g e r s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e f o l l o w i n g h y p o t h e s i s h a s b e e n d e v e l o p e d a s a f o c u s f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h : " A i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n o f a n u r b a n a r e a i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h a t a r e a ' s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s " . The R e s e a r c h A p p r o a c h The f u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m i n v o l v e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i s t o d e t e r m i n e w h i c h f a c t o r e x e r t s t h e g r e a t e s t i n f l u e n c e : l o c a t i o n , c o m m u n i t y s i z e o r t h e v a r i o u s o t h e r u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e h y p o t h e s i s t o be t e s t e d i s t h a t t h e v a r i a t i o n i n a v a r i a b l e ( c r i t e r i o n ) i . e . a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n , i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e v a r i a t i o n s i n a s e r i e s o f o t h e r v a r i a b l e s ( p r e d i c t o r s ) i . e . l o c a t i o n , c o m m u n i t y s i z e a n d o t h e r c o m m u n i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . W i t h t h i s i n m i n d , t h e m e t h o d o f a n a l y s i s s e l e c t e d f o r t h i s s t u d y i s r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . The s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h i s m e t h o d s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s m u s t make i n d e p e n d e n t a n d a d d i t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e . To i n s u r e t h a t m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i s a v o i d e d , f a c t o r a n a l y s i s i s c a r r i e d o u t t o e x t r a c t i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s f o r m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . A n o t h e r a r e a t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n t h i s s t u d y i s t h e n a t u r e o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i n 15 h o m o g e n e o u s g r o u p s o f c i t i e s . M c C a r t h y p o i n t e d o u t t h a t i n a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , t h e a g g r e g a t i o n o f h e t e r o g e n e o u s o b j e c t s , i n t h i s c a s e 7 c i t i e s , o b s c u r e s t h e t r u e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n t h e d e p e n d e n t a n d t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . As a r e s u l t , i t i s d i f f i c u l t , i f n o t i m p o s s i b l e , " t o d e v e l o p g e n e r a l t r i p - g e n e r a t i o n e q u a t i o n s - t h o s e t h a t w o u l d be 16 17 a p p l i c a b l e t o more t h a n one s t u d y a r e a " . S i m i l a r l y , L e u n g h a s d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t a g r o u p o f h o m o g e n e o u s o b j e c t s p r o d u c e s a more s t a b l e 2 r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , i . e . h i g h R , t h a n a g r o u p o f h e t e r o g e n e o u s o b j e c t s . P a s t r e s e a r c h h a s a l s o d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m one c i t y t y p e t o t h e o t h e r v a r y c o n s i s t e n t l y ( s e e T a b l e l ) . The e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h i s v a r i a t i o n i s n o t c l e a r l y k n o w n . I n t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y , a g r o u p i n g a n a l y s i s w i l l be c a r r i e d o u t w i t h s a m p l e c i t i e s i n o r d e r t o c l a s s i f y t h em i n t o s u b g r o u p s o f h o m o g e n e o u s c i t i e s . The homo-g e n e i t y , h o w e v e r , w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e i r s i m i l a r i t y o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . F i n a l l y , i f t h e g r o u p i n g a n a l y s i s e s t a b l i s h e s more t h a n one s u b g r o u p , m u l t i p l e - r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s w i l l a g a i n be u s e d on e a c h o f t h e m . The s e r i e s o f e q u a t i o n s t h u s o b t a i n e d a r e n o t o n l y e x p e c t e d t o i m p r o v e u p o n t h e o r i g i n a l o n e ( o b t a i n e d f o r a l l t h e c i t i e s t a k e n t o g e t h e r ) , b u t t h e y w i l l a l s o i n d i c a t e d some e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e v a r i a t i o n i n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m d i f f e r e n t c i t y t y p e s . P r e v i e w C h a p t e r Two s u m m a r i z e s e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e on t h e s u b j e c t . C h a p t e r T h r e e e x p l a i n s t h e r e s e a r c h m e t h o d o l o g y , a n d t h e d a t a u s e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s . The r e s u l t s o f t h e a n a l y s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n C h a p t e r F o u r . The c o n c l u d i n g c h a p t e r c o n t a i n s t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s , t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s a n d s u g g e s t i o n s f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . 8 TABLE 1 AIR PASSENGER GENERATION BY COMMUNITY TYPE E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r A v e r a g e No. P a s s e n g e r s P e r 1 0 , 0 0 0 P o p u l a t i o n . ( P a s s e n g e r s To & From) S e p t e m b e r S e p t e m b e r 194 0 1946 M a r k e t i n g C e n t r e s 108 578 I n s t i t u t i o n a l 1 0 4 5 4 1 B a l a n c e d 61 284 I n d u s t r i a l s 50 2 2 1 S o u r c e : U. S. D e p t . o f Commerce, C i v i l A e r o n a u t i c s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r o f C o m m u n i t i e s , N o v e m b e r 1 9 4 8 . 9 D e f i n i t i o n s C o m m u n a l i t y . T h i s r e f e r s t o t h e sum o f t h e s q u a r e d c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e v a r i a b l e a n d e a c h o f t h e f a c t o r s . I t i s u s u a l l y d e n o t e d by 2 t h e s y m b o l h . C o r r e l a t i o n M a t r i x . T h i s i s a c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t m a t r i x o f a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s . The c o e f f i c i e n t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n e x p r e s s t h e d e g r e e o f t h e l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e r o w a n d c o l u m n v a r i a b l e s o f t h e m a t r i x . The c l o s e r t o z e r o t h e c o e f f i c i e n t , t h e s m a l l e r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p ; t h e c l o s e r t o o n e , t h e g r e a t e r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p . A n e g a t i v e s i g n i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e V a r i a b l e s a r e i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d . The p r i n c i p a l d i a g o n a l , w h i c h 18 i s a l w a y s o n e , u s u a l l y c o n t a i n s t h e c o r r e l a t i o n o f a v a r i a b l e w i t h i t s e l f . E i g e n v a l u e . The e i g e n v a l u e s e q u a l t h e sum o f t h e c o l u m n o f s q u a r e d l o a d i n g s f o r e a c h f a c t o r . T h e y m e a s u r e t h e a m o unt o f v a r i a t i o n a c c o u n t e d f o r by a f a c t o r a n d a r e t h e r o o t s o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c e q u a t i o n o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x . " ^ F a c t o r S c o r e . T h i s i s t h e s c o r e o r m e a s u r e m e n t o f a n o b s e r v a t i o n on a f a c t o r . The s c o r e s a r e s t a n d a r d i z e d , w h i c h means t h e y a r e s c a l e d s o t h a t on a n y f a c t o r t h e i r mean i s z e r o a n d s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n i s 1.0. T h e r e f o r e t h o s e s c o r e s g r e a t e r t h a n +1.0 o r l e s s t h a n -1.0 a r e i c e n s l c l e r e d h i g h o r l o w . F - P r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e E q u a t i o n . T h i s r e p r e s e n t s t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f 2 o b t a i n i n g a v a l u e o f R g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h e one c a l c u l a t e d , g i v e n t h a t t h e r e i s no a s s o c i a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e d e p e n d e n t a n d i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . I f t h i s p r o b a b i l i t y i s l e s s t h a n t h e d e s i r e d v a l u e ( 0 . 0 5 f o r t h i s s t u d y ) , 2 i t i s u s u a l l y c o n c l u d e d t h a t R i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m z e r o . 10 The S t a n d a r d E r r o r o f E s t i m a t e . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h e a c c u r a c y w i t h w h i c h t h e v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e may be e s t i m a t e d f r o m t h e v a l u e s o f i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . I t i s c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f t h e r e s i d u a l s o f t h e o b s e r v e d a n d e s t i m a t e d ( f r o m t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n ) v a l u e s . 2 The S q u a r e d M u l t i p l e C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t o r R . T h i s r e p r e s e n t s t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l v a r i a t i o n i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e , e x p l a i n e d 2 by t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a c t i n g t o g e t h e r . The v a l u e o f R i s a l w a y s b e t w e e n z e r o a n d o n e ; t h e c l o s e r i t i s t o o n e , t h e b e t t e r t h e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n f i t s t h e d a t a . 11 FOOTNOTES B e r n a r d A. S c h r i e v e r a n d W i l l i a m W. S e i f e r t , A i r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n  1 9 7 5 a n d B e y o n d : A S y s t e m s A p p r o a c h , The M. I . T. P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . 1 9 6 8 , p p . 2 6 - 2 8 . 2 R o b e r t F. B a k e r a n d Raymond M. W i l m o t t e , T e c h n o l o g y a n d  D e c i s i o n s i n A i r p o r t A c c e s s , A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r s , New Y o r k , 1 9 7 0 . 3 I b i d . , p . 7 5 . 4 B r i t t o n H a r r i s , "New T o o l s f o r P l a n n i n g " , J o u r n a l o f t h e  A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s , Hay 1 9 6 5 , p. 9 1 . 5 Norman L. J o h n s o n , " F o r c a s t i n g A i r p o r t T r a f f i c " , J o u r n a l o f  t h e A e r o - S p a c e T r a n s p o r t D i v i s i o n , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r s , V o l . 9 0 , No. A T 2 , O c t o b e r 1 9 6 4 , p p . 1 8 1 ; P h i l l i p s S c h a r y a n d R o b e r t M. W i l l i a m s , " A i r l i n e F a r e P o l i c y a n d P u b l i c I n v e s t -m e n t " , T r a n s p o r t a t i o n J o u r n a l , V o l . 7, F a l l 1 9 6 7 , p p . 4 1 - 4 9 . ^T. F. C o m i c k a n d W. M. W a l l a c e , F o r e c a s t o f U n i t e d S t a t e s  D o m e s t i c A i r l i n e T r a f f i c 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 5 , M a r k e t R e s e a r c h a n d P l a n n i n g D i v i s i o n , B o e i n g Company, W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 7 . 7 V o g t , I v e r s a n d A s s o c i a t e s , S o c i a l a n d E c o n o m i c F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g  I n t e r c i t y T r a v e l , N a t i o n a l C o o p e r a t i v e H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m R e p o r t 7 0 , H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h B o a r d , 1 9 6 9 , p. 3 7 . 8 S e e t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r u n d e r s e c t i o n 'The I n t e r c i t y L i n k a g e C o n c e p t ' f o r a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n on t h i s . g I b i d . , p . 4 1 . " ^ S e e C h a p t e r I I o f t h i s t h e s i s . "'""'"Most o f t h e s e s t u d i e s a r e on t h e b a s i s o f g r a v i t y c o n c e p t . See C h a p t e r I I o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r r e f e r e n c e s . 12 The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y , A v i a t i o n D e p a r t m e n t , F o r e c a s t a n d A n a l y s i s D i v i s i o n , New Y o r k ' s A i r T r a v e l l e r s , The Eno F o u n d a t i o n f o r H i g h w a y T r a f f i c C o n t r o l , S a u g a t u c k , C o n n e c t i c u t , 1 9 5 6 , p . 5 0 . 13 B e r n a r d A. S c h r i v e r a n d W i l l i a m W. S e i f e r t , o p . c i t . , p. 6 6 . 14 U. S. D e p a r t m e n t o f Commerce, E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r o f C o m m u n i t i e s , C i v i l A e r o n a u t i c s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , N o v e m b e r 1 9 4 8 ; s e e a l s o U. S. D e p a r t m e n t o f Commerce, C o m m u n i t y S i z e a n d E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r , C i v i l A e r o n a u t i c s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , J u l y 1 9 5 3 ; a n d U. S. F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n A g e n c y , A i r T r a f f i c  P a t t e r n s a n d C o m m u n i t y C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , 1 9 6 3 . 12 15 G e r a l d M. M c C a r t h y , " M u l t i p l e - R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s o f H o u s e h o l d T r i p G e n e r a t i o n - A C r i t i q u e " , H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h R e c o r d , No. 2 9 7 , 1 9 6 9 , p p . 3 1 - 4 3 . 1 6 I b i d . , p. 3 2 . 17 H o w - Y i n L e u n g , " C o m p a r a t i v e A p p r o a c h t o P l a n n i n g A n a l y s i s - A M o d e l f o r CBD F l o o r S p a c e P r e d i c t i o n " , U n p u b l i s h e d M.Sc. T h e s i s , U n i v e r -s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1 9 7 0 . 18 O f t e n h o w e v e r , when t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x i s f a c t o r e d u s i n g t h e common f a c t o r a n a l y s i s m o d e l , t h e p r i n c i p a l d i a g o n a l c o n t a i n s c o m m u n a l i t y e s t i m a t e s i n s t e a d o f u n i t y . 19 R. 3. Rummel, A p p l i e d F a c t o r A n a l y s i s , N o r t h W est U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , E v a n s t o n , 1 9 7 0 , p . 1 4 4 . 20 F o r a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n , s e e H u b e r t M. B l a l o c k , D r . , S o c i a l  S t a t i s t i c s , McGraw H i l l Book C o . , 1 9 6 0 , p p . 3 0 3 - 3 0 5 . 13 CHAPTER I I L I T E R A T U R E An e x a m i n a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e on t h e s u b j e c t r e v e a l s t h a t a number o f h y p o t h e s e s h a v e b e e n p u t f o r w a r d r e l a t i n g a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r -a t i o n t o u r b a n o r n a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . T h e s e h y p o t h e s e s c a n be b r o a d l y d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r g r o u p s . 1. N a t i o n a l t r e n d . 2. I n t e r c i t y l i n k a g e c o n c e p t . 3. E c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r o f c o m m u n i t i e s . 4. L i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The h y p o t h e s e s , t o g e t h e r w i t h a t y p i c a l a n a l y t i c a l a p p r o a c h t o t h e e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s f o r e a c h d f t h e s e g r o u p s , a r e r e v i e w e d b e l o w . N a t i o n a l T r e n d I t h a s b e e n o b s e r v e d t h a t a c o m m u n i t y ' s s h a r e i n t h e n a t i o n a l a i r t r a v e l m a r k e t i s r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h e r e f o r e f o r a com-m u n i t y t o r e a c h a n a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f t h e a m ount o f i t s a i r p a s s e n g e r t r a f f i c 21 by a p p l y i n g t h i s m a r k e t s h a r e t o t h e n a t i o n a l a i r p a s s e n g e r p r o j e c t i o n . T h e r e f o r e t h e p r o b l e m f o r t h i s g r o u p o f s t u d i e s was t o d e t e r m i n e t h e f u t u r e a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f o r t h e n a t i o n ; s e v e r a l m e t h o d s o f 22 a n a l y s i s w e r e u s e d t o do t h i s . O n l y t h e m e t h o d o f ' m a r k e t a n a l y s i s ' i s d i s c u s s e d h e r e b e c a u s e o f t h e f a c t t h a t s i m i l a r m e t h o d s o f a n a l y s i s c a n a l s o be a d o p t e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m a n y c o m m u n i t y . A s t u d y by "The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y * a s s u m e d t h a t : ". . . A i r t r a v e l i s c o n s i d e r e d a s e s s e n t i a l l y a c o m m o d i t y - o n e o f s e v e r a l i n c o m p e t i t i o n f o r t h e b u y e r s d o l l a r s . T h i s a p p r o a c h a c c e p t s t h e p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t e a c h t r i p r e s u l t s f r o m a m o r e - o r - l e s s c a r e f u l l y w e i g h t e d d e c i s i o n by t h e t r a v e l l e r , made u n d e r m o r e - o r - l e s s c o m p e l l i n g c i r c u m s t a n c e s , a n d t e m p e r e d by t h e t r a v e l l e r ' s b a c k g r o u n d a n d e x p e r i e n c e , h i s r e s o u r c e s , h i s t a s t e s a n d p r e f e r e n c e s a n d o t h e r p r i m a r i l y p e r s o n a l c o n -s i d e r a t i o n s . "23 I n 1 9 5 5 , a s a p r e l i m i n a r y s t e p , a m a r k e t s u r v e y was c o n d u c t e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c c o n d i t i o n s t h a t e x p l a i n d e c i s i o n s t o t r a v e l by a i r . The b a s i c c r i t e r i a u s e d f o r t h e U. S. d o m e s t i c a i r p a s s e n g e r f o r e c a s t w e r e d e v e l o p e d by a n a l y z i n g t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s s u r v e y . The f o r e c a s t was made f o r two t y p e s o f a i r t r a v e l : p e r s o n a l a n d b u s i n e s s . F o r b u s i n e s s t r a v e l a c o m p l e x t a b l e w i t h 127 c e l l s was c o n s t r u c t e d u s i n g o c c u p a t i o n , i n d u s t r y a n d i n c o m e f a c t o r s . S i m i l a r l y , a g e , o c c u p a t i o n , i n c o m e a n d e d u c a t i o n w e r e u s e d t o b u i l d a t a b l e w i t h 1 60 c e l l s f o r p e r -24 s o n a l t r a v e l . The a g e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n was d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r g r o u p s : 1 8 - 2 4 , 2 5 - 4 4 , 4 5 - 6 4 a n d 6 5 - a n d - o v e r . T h a t o f i n c o m e was a l s o d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r g r o u p s : u n d e r $ 3 0 0 0 , $ 3 0 0 0 - $ 5 9 9 9 , $ 6 0 0 0 - 1 9 9 9 9 a n d $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 - a n d - o v e r . S i m i l a r l y , t wo e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l s w e r e u s e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s : h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s a n d n o n - h i g h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s . The f o u r t e e n f o l l o w i n g c l a s s i -f i c a t i o n s f o r i n d u s t r y , u s e d i n a n a l y z i n g b u s i n e s s t r a v e l , w e r e : 1. M i n i n g 8. F i n a n c e , I n s u r a n c e & 2. M a n u f a c t u r i n g R e t a i l S a l e 3. G o v e r n m e n t 9. P r o f e s s i o n a l S e r v i c e 4. B u s i n e s s S e r v i c e 1 0 . A g r i c u l t u r e , F o r e s t r y & 5. C o n s t r u c t i o n F i s h i n g 6. W h o l e s a l e & R e t a i l 1 1 . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 7. P e r s o n a l S e r v i c e 1 2 . R e p a i r S e r v i c e 1 3 . A musement, R e c r e a t i o n 1 4 . P r i n t i n g & P u b l i s h i n g V a r i o u s o c c u p a t i o n s w e r e g r o u p e d s e p a r a t e l y u n d e r b u s i n e s s a n d p e r s o n a l t r a v e l . The f i v e f o l l o w i n g t y p e s o f o c c u p a t i o n s w e r e i n c l u d e d i n e a c h g r o u p l : 15 A. B u s i n e s s T r a v e l 1. P r o f e s s i o n a l , T e c h n i c a l 2. M a n a g e r i a l , P r o p r i e t o r 3. S a l e s 4. C l e r i c a l a n d L a b o r 5. F a r m : O w n e r s , M a n a g e r s a n d F o r e m a n B. P e r s o n a l T r a v e l 1. P r o f e s s i o n a l , M a n a g e r i a l , T e c h n i c a l , P r o p r i e t o r 2. C l e r i c a l , S a l e s L a b o r 3. F a r m : O w n e r s , M a n a g e r s a n d F o r e m a n 4. H o u s e w i v e s , S t u d e n t s , U n e m p l o y e d 5. R e t i r e d The n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n f a l l i n g i n t o e a c h o f t h e p e r s o n a l a n d b u s i n e s s t r a v e l c e l l s was d e t e r m i n e d f r o m 1 9 5 5 U. S. C e n s u s d a t a . A s i m i l a r p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n was d e t e r m i n e d f o r 1 9 6 5 a r i d 1 9 7 5 f r o m U. S. C e n s u s B u r e a u p r o j e c t i o n s . F r o m t h e m a r k e t s u r v e y i t was p o s s i b l e t o c a l -c u l a t e t h e p e r c a p i t a t r a v e l f r e q u e n c y f o r e a c h c e l l i n t h e 1 9 5 5 t a b l e s . I n o r d e r t o f o r e c a s t t h e a m o unt o f t r a v e l f o r 1 9 6 5 a n d 1 9 7 5 , i t was n e c e s s -a r y t o e s t i m a t e t h e f r e q u e n c y o f t r a v e l f o r t h o s e y e a r s . T h i s was c a l c u l a t e d by e x t r a p o l a t i n g p a s t t r e n d s . F o r e x a m p l e , i n 1 9 5 5 , p r o f e s s i o n a l s i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y , e a r n i n g b e t w e e n $ 3 0 0 0 a n d 1 5 9 9 9 , t o o k 600 t r i p s p e r 1 0 0 0 . A g r a p h was c o n s t r u c t e d c o n n e c t i n g t h i s p o i n t t o ' z e r o ' i n 1935,- when t h e f i r s t b u s i n e s s t r i p s w e r e t a k e n . By p r o j e c t i n g t h i s t r e n d l i n e t o 1 9 6 5 a n d 1 9 7 5 r e s p e c t i v e l y , 900 a n d 1 2 0 0 t r i p s w e r e f o u n d t o o c c u r . F i n a l l y , by m u l t i p l y i g g t h e s e f r e q u e n c y r a t e s by t h e p r o j e c t e d p o p u l a t i o n i n e a c h c e l l , t r a v e l v o l u m e s w e r e o b t a i n e d f o r 1 9 6 5 a n d 1 9 7 5 . As t h i s m e t h o d i s b a s e d on t h e e x t r a p o l a t i o n o f p a s t t r e n d , i t s a p p l i c a t i o n l a r g e l y d e p e n d s on t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e p a s t a s w e l l a s p r e s e n t s u r v e y d a t a . A l s o , i n t h i s m e t h o d a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s p l a y e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g f u t u r e a i r p a s s e n g e r v o l u m e . I t h a s v e r y l i t t l e q u a l i t y i n i d e n t i f y i n g t h e i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e s t h a t h e l p g e n e r a t e a i r p a s s e n g e r s . L a s t l y , t h i s s t u d y i s b a s e d on t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t a 16 t r a v e l l e r ' s d e c i s i o n t o t r a v e l by a i r d e p e n d s on h i s p e r s o n a l s o c i o - e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d . T h i s means i t c o m p l e t e l y d i s r e g a r d s t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s o f a c o m m u n i t y , i . e . i t s l o c a t i o n , p o p u l a t i o n a n d o t h e r s o c i o -e c o n o m i c u n i q u e n e s s . The I n t e r c i t y L i n k a g e C o n c e p t The h y p o t h e s i s r e g a r d i n g t h i s c o n c e p t h a s a l r e a d y b e e n d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r One. The m o d e l commonly u s e d i s c a l l e d t h e ' g r a v i t y m o d e l ' w h i c h i s e x p r e s s e d a s f o l l o w s : T. . = k ( P . P.) D _ b . i j i J i j W h e r e , T.. = Number o f t r i p s b e t w e e n c i t i e s i & j i j & P = P o p u l a t i o n o f i & j D. . = D i s t a n c e b e t w e e n i & j k = A c o n s t a n t b = An e x p o n e n t o f D. T h i s e x p r e s s i o n o f t h e i n t e r c i t y l i n k a g e c o n c e p t makes one v e r y b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e p o p u l a t i o n ; i t a s s u m e s t h a t a l l p o p u l a t i o n s h a v e a u n i f o r m g e n e r a t i v e f o r c e . Y e t i t i s known t h a t m a r k e d v a r i a t i o n s e x i s t i n 25 t h e r a t e o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m d i f f e r e n t u r b a n a r e a s . T h e s e v a r i a t i o n s , a s S t e w a r t n o t e s , a r e due t o t h e f a c t t h a t a c o m m u n i t y u n d e r o n e s e t o f s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c i r c u m s t a n c e s i s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y o f t h e same i m p o r t a n c e 2 6 a s u n d e r a n o t h e r s e t . O t h e r s h a v e a l s o s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e s e c i t y v a r i a t i o n s 27 a r e due t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e f u n c t i o n s o f t h e c i t i e s . To a c c o u n t f o r t h e s e c i t y d i f f e r e n c e s some h a v e s u g g e s t e d t h e u s e o f ' m u l t i p l i c a t i v e w e i g h t s ' i n 28 t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l . T h u s t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l f o r m u l a w i t h t h e w e i g h t e d f a c t o r s w o u l d t a k e t h e f o l l o w i n g f o r m : I . . .= k(P.W.) (P.W.) D~ b i j i i J J i j W h e r e , I . . = Number o f a i r t r i p s b e t w e e n c i t i e s i & j i j P i & P j = P o p u l a t i o n o f i & j W & W . = W e i g h t s f o r c i t i e s i & j i J D . = D i s t a n c e b e t w e e n i & j i j b = E x p o n e n t o f D k = A c o n s t a n t 29 Hammer a n d I k l e u s e t h i s e q u a t i o n t o d e t e r m i n e t h e c i t y w e i g h t s . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e w e i g h t s d e t e r m i n e d a r e n o t i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e number o f i n t e r a c t i o n s i . e . a i r t r i p s . T h e s e w e i g h t s w e r e i n t e r p r e t e d a s b e i n g an i n d e x o f t h e ' a v e r a g e p r o p e n s i t y o f i n t e r a c t i o n ' o f a l l t h e i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h e c i t y . F i n a l l y , c o r r e l a t i o n s w e r e o b t a i n e d b e t w e e n t h e r a n k s o f t h e s e c i t y w e i g h t s a n d a s e r i e s o f s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e c i t i e s . The r e s u l t s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s show t h a t t h e p r o p e n s i t y o f i n t e r a c t i o n , t h a t i s t h e p e r c a p i t a number o f a i r p a s s e n g e r s g e n e r a t e d , i n c r e a s e s w i t h a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e f o l l o w i n g u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : 1. p e r c e n t a g e o f m a n a g e r s , o f f i c i a l s a n d p r o p r i e t o r s i n a c i t y . 2. p e r c a p i t a a n n u a l r e t a i l s a l e a n d , 3. t h e number o f r o o m s f o r t r a n s i e n t s i n M e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s , d i v i d e d by t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . The r e s u l t s a l s o show t h a t t h e h i g h e r a c i t y ' s m e d i a n f a m i l y i n c o m e , t h e l o w e r i s i t s p e r c a p i t a number o f a i r t r i p s . T h i s i n c o n s i s t e n c y , a s t h e s t u d y s u g g e s t s , , m a y be due t o i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h o t h e r f a c t o r s . A n o t h e r a p p r o a c h t o t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r c i t y d i f f e r -30 e n c e s was u s e d by D o g a n i s i n h i s s t u d y o f E u r o p e a n c i t i e s , a n d a l s o by 31 B e l m o n t i n r e l a t i o n t o U. S. c i t i e s . I n t h i s m o d e l , t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f e a c h c o m m u n i t y was r e p l a c e d by i t s t o t a l a i r t r a f f i c . The a d v a n t a g e s d e r i v e d i n u s i n g t h e amount o f a i r t r a f f i c i n s t e a d o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n , a s n o t e d by D o g a n i s , a r e a s f o l l o w s : ". ... I n t h i s way p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d e m a r c a t i o n o f t o w n b o u n d a r i e s a n d o f h i n t e r l a n d a r e a s a r e a v o i d e d . T o t a l a i r t r a f f i c i n c o r p o r a t e s a number o f o t h e r v a r i a b l e s w h i c h p o p u l a -t i o n d o e s n o t . N o t o n l y d o e s i t r e f l e c t t h e s i z e o f t h e w h o l e p a p u l a t i o n w h i c h i s s e r v e d by a p a r t i c u l a r a i r p o r t , b u t a l s o t h e e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r o f t h a t p o p u l a t i o n , t h e q u a l i t y o f a i r s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d a n d t h e c o m p e t i t i o n f r o m t h e n e i g h b o r i n g a i r p o r t s . . ."32 33 I n a n o t h e r s t u d y L o n g u s e s t h e f o l l o w i n g e x p r e s s i o n t o a c c o u n t f o r c i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : T 1 2 = k l * k2 + k 3 °12 °12 D 1 2 w h e r e , T = T o t a l t r a f f i c b e t w e e n c o m m u n i t i e s 1 & 2 k = C o n s t a n t P^, P^ = P o p u l a t i o n o f c o m m u n i t i e s 1 & 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y Y^, Y^ = P o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n c o m e $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 - o r - o v e r i n c o m m u n i t i e s 1 & 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y E ^ , E^ = P o p u l a t i o n w i t h one o r more y e a r s o f c o l l e g e e d u c a t i o n i n c o m m u n i t i e s 1 & 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y D^2 = D i s t a n c e i n m i l e s b e t w e e n c o m m u n i t i e s 1 & 2 A l t h o u g h a l l t h e s e m o d e l s w e r e t e s t e d on e m p i r i c a l d a t a w i t h v a r y i n g d e g r e s s o f s u c c e s s , r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e r a i s e d a number o f q u e s t i o n s 34 35 a s t o t h e i r u n i v e r s a l a p p l i c a t i o n . H a y h i l l a n d R i c h m o n d h a v e p o i n t e d o u t t h a t , f o r m e t r o p o l i t a n c e n t r e s , i t i s n o t y e t c l e a r l y known w h i c h o n e o f t h e t h r e e p o p u l a t i o n s i z e s - c e n t r a l c i t y , m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , o r s t a n -d a r d m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a - s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l . S i m i l a r l y , e m p i r i c a l o b s e r v a t i o n s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e i m p a c t o f d i s t a n c e i s 19 n o t u n i f o r m a n d t h a t i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i s n o t a s i m p l e i n v e r s e o n e , b u t one i n w h i c h d i s t a n c e i s r a i s e d t o some p o w e r o t h e r t h a n u n i t y . I k l e ' s f i n d i n g s on t w e n t y - n i n e m a j o r U. S. 36 c i t i e s s u g g e s t a p o w e r o f 1.07, w h e r e a s T a a f f e s u g g e s t s a v a l u e o f 37 2 i n h i s s t u d y . W i t h E u r o p e a n c i t i e s D o g a n i s o b t a i n e d a r a n g e o f v a l u e s 38 f r o m u n i t y t o 1.5. A more c o m p l e x p r o b l e m , h o w e v e r , a r i s e s when c o n -s i d e r i n g w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e e x p o n e n t o f d i s t a n c e s h o u l d be a c o n s t a n t o r a v a r i a b l e . T h a t i s , i f o t h e r f a c t o r s a r e made c o n s t a n t w i l l d i s t a n c e h a v e a u n i f o r m e f f e c t on t h e a m o unt o f p a s s e n g e r s ? I k l e o b s e r v e s t h a t a i r 39 t r i p s b e t w e e n two c i t i e s d e c r e a s e i n n u mber b e y o n d 150 t o 200 m i l e s , w h e r e a s D o g a n i s n o t e s t h a t t r a f f i c by a l l modes d e c r e a s e s a s t h e d i s t a n c e i n c r e a s e s , b u t a s t h e a d v a n t a g e o f t r a v e l l i n g by a i r i n c r e a s e s w i t h i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e , i t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p e c t t h a t b e y o n d a c e r t a i n d i s t a n c e a n i n -40 c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l t r a f f i c w i l l be a i r t r a f f i c . T h u s i t i s c l e a r t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f d i s t a n c e i n t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l h a s n o t y e t b e e n f u l l y e x p l o r e d . E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f C o m m u n i t i e s O v e r t h e p a s t t h i r t y y e a r s , c o m m u n i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , a n d t h e i r e f f e c t on p a t t e r n s o f a i r t r a f f i c , h a v e b e e n t h e s u b j e c t o f a s e r i e s o f r e l a t e d s t u d i e s by t h e U. S. C i v i l A e r o n a u t i c s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d t h e U. S. 41 F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n A u t h o r i t y . I n N o v e m b e r 1 9 4 8 , t h e C i v i l A e r o n a u t i c s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n i s s u e d a r e p o r t i n w h i c h U. S. c i t i e s w e r e c l a s s i f i e d i n t o f o u r g r o u p s - I n d u s t r i a l , M a r k e t i n g C e n t r e , B a l a n c e d a n d I n s t i t u t i o n a l - on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p e r c e n t -a g e o f p e o p l e e m p l o y e d i n m i n i n g a n d m a n u f a c t u r i n g , a n d t h e p e r c a p i t a w h o l e s a l e s a l e s . T a b l e 2 a n d F i g u r e 3 a r e p r e s e n t e d h e r e t o e x p l a i n t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . 2 0 TABLE 2 ECONOMIC C L A S S I F I C A T I O N OF COMMUNITIES E c o n o m i c T y p e E m p l o y m e n t i n M i n i n g P e r C a p i t a W h o l e s a l e & M a n u f a c t u r i n g . S a l e o r E m p l o y m e n t i n ; (%) T r a d e (fo).  S i g n i f i c a n t l y a b o v e T y p i c a l l y b e l o w a v e r a g e I N DUSTRIAL a v e r a g e ( s t a n d a r d ( s t a n d a r d s c o r e o f s c o r e o f +100 o r b e l o w z e r o ) . h i g h e r ) . MARKETING CENTRE T y p i c a l l y b e l o w S i g n i f i c a n t l y a b o v e a v e r a g e . a v e r a g e . BALANCED A r o u n d a v e r a g e ( w i t h i n A r o u n d a v e r a g e . a s t a n d a r d s c o r e r a n g e o f +99 t o - 9 9 ) . I N S T I T U T I O N A L S i g n i f i c a n t l y b e l o w T y p i c a l l y b e l o w a v e r a g e . a v e r a g e ( s t a n d a r d s c o r e o f - 1 0 0 o r l o w e r ) . - P CO • H CD > H • H O - ^ p O O If) =n T J CD U •~\ CO CO " O CD C CD CO •—I - P o cn .c — 300 I O O -- I O O -Zoo -500 M a r k e t i n g C e n t r e B a l a n c e d I n s t i t u t i o n a l I n d u s t r i a l -300 - 2oo - I O O I O O ZOO 300 I n d u s t r i a l E m p l o y m e n t ( S t a n d a r d S c o r e s ) FIGURE 3 • DIAGRAMATIC REPRESENTATION OF COMMUNITY C L A S S I F I C A T I O N S o u r c e : U . S . F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n A g e n c y , A i r T r a f f i c P a t t e r n s a n d C o m m u n i t y  Characteristics« W a s h i n g t o n , D.C., 1 9 6 3 . 21 The f i n d i n g s o f t h e r e p o r t s a r e a s f o l l o w s : 1. The a m o unt o f a i r t r a f f i c g e n e r a t e d by a c o m m u n i t y i s r e l a t e d t o i t s p o p u l a t i o n s i z e ; t h a t i s , l a r g e c i t i e s g e n e r a t e more a i r p a s s e n g e r s t h a n s m a l l c i t i e s . T r a f f i c v a r i a t i o n s w i t h i n a g r o u p o f c o m m u n i t i e s ' o f e q u a l s i z e , h o w e v e r , r e f l e c t d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e c o m m u n i t i e s c o n c e r n e d . 2. M a r k e t i n g c e n t r e s a n d I n s t i t u t i o n a l c o m m u n i t i e s h a v e g r e a t e r p e r c a p i t a a i r t r a f f i c t h a n do I n d u s t r i a l c o m m u n i t i e s ; w h i l e B a l a n c e d c o m m u n i t i e s h a v e a b o u t a n a v e r a g e a m ount o f a i r t r a f f i c . T h i s m o d e l i s p e r h a p s t h e f i r s t a t t e m p t t o r e l a t e a number o f c o m m u n i t y v a r i a b l e s t o a i r t r a f f i c . I t s t a t e s t h a t n o t o n l y t h e s i z e b u t a l s o t h e e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a c o m m u n i t y a r e s t r o n g f a c t o r s i n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . I n o t h e r w o r d s , two c o m m u n i t i e s may h a v e t h e same p o p u l a t i o n b u t t h e i r a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n may v a r y due t o d i f f e r -e n c e s i n t h e i r e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y . H o w e v e r , t h i s m o d e l t a k e s i n t o a c c o u n t o n l y two e c o n o m i c c r i t e r i a , i . e . e m p l o y m e n t a n d w h o l e s a l e a c t i v i t y , a l t h o u g h i t i s known t h a t t h e i n t e r p l a y o f a l a r g e number o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i t h i n 42 c o m m u n i t i e s d i f f e r e n t i a t e one f r o m t h e o t h e r . L i n e a r R e l a t i o n s h i p t o U r b a n C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s S t u d i e s d o n e u s i n g t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e a r e i n c l u d e d w i t h i n t h i s g r o u p . I n t h e s e s t u d i e s i t i s p o s t u l a t e d t h a t a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i s a f u n c t i o n o f a number o f u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The l i t e r -a t u r e i n d i c a t e s t h a t b e s i d e s p o p u l a t i o n a n d d i s t a n c e , a number o f o t h e r u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s h a v e b e e n p u t f o r w a r d a s g e n e r a t o r s o f a i r p a s s e n g e r s . T h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e : I . P o p u l a t i o n I I . L i f e C y c l e 4 3 I I I . S e x 4 4 22 I U . No. o f h o t e l r e g i s t r a n t s V. I n c o m e : A. F a m i l y Income B. E x c e s s F a m i l y I n c o m e 4 ^ C. P e r C a p i t a I n c o m e 4 ^ An e x a m p l e o f t h e u s e o f t h e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e i s a 47 c a s e s t u d y by R i c h m o n d f o r t h e c i t y o f D e n v e r , C o l o r a d o . T h r e e v a r i a b l e s a n d 65 c o m m u n i t i e s w h i c h h a d m a j o r a i r p a s s e n g e r e x c h a n g e a n d w e r e more t h a n 200 m i l e s away f r o m D e n v e r w e r e c o n s i d e r e d f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s a n a l y s i s . The e q u a t i o n o b t a i n e d i s a s f o l l o w s : l o g X = 1.97 + 0.71 l o g % - 0.84 l o g X 3 W h e r e , = t h e a i r p a s s e n g e r v o l u m e g e n e r a t e d b e t w e e n D e n v e r a n d a s a m p l e c i t y i n 1 9 5 2 . = t h e number o f h o t e l r e g i s t r a n t s f r o m o t h e r c i t i e s r e g i s t e r e d a t D e n v e r h o t e l s . = t h e n umber o f i n t e r m e d i a t e s t o p s b e t w e e n o t h e r c i t i e s a n d D e n v e r . The m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t f o r t h i s e q u a t i o n was f o u n d t o be 0 . 9 1 ; t h i s was a l s o t e s t e d by t h e m e t h o d o f a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a n c e a n d was f o u n d t o be s i g n i f i c a n t . A n o t h e r s t u d y u s i n g a s i m i l a r t e c h n i q u e o f a n a l y s i s i s t h a t o f 48 L a n s i n g , L i u a n d S u i t . The v a r i a b l e s u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y w e r e d i s t a n c e , p o p u l a t i o n a n d p e r c e n t a g e o f f a m i l i e s w i t h i n t h e i n c o m e b r a c k e t o f $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 -o r - o v e r . The f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n s w e r e o b t a i n e d f o r New Y o r k a n d C h i c a g o f r o m 1 5 1 s a m p l e c i t i e s . L o g T (New Y o r k ) = - 0 . 2 1 L o g X + 1.66 L o g X ( 0 . 1 3 ) ( 0 . 1 5 ) +0.19 L o g X + 6.02 ( 0 . 4 2 ) 6 R 2 = 0.51 L o g T ( C h i c a g o ) = - 0 . 7 9 L o g X + 1.38 L o g X + 1.25 L o g X + 3.50 ( 0 . 1 6 ) 1 ( 0 . 1 3 ) Z ( 0 . 3 9 ) 3 R 2 = 0.54 23 W h e r e , T = number o f t r i p s b e t w e e n New Y o r k ( C h i c a g o ) a n d t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s . = d i s t a n c e b e t w e e n New Y o r k ( C h i c a g o ) a n d t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s . = p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s . - p e r c e n t a g e o f f a m i l i e s w i t h i n c o m e o v e r | 1 0 , 0 0 0 i n t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s . N u m b ers i n p a r e n t h e s i s a r e t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r s f o r t h e r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s . I n t h e a b o v e e q u a t i o n s , t h e s m a l l c o e f f i c i e n t a t t a c h e d t o t h e d i s t a n c e f a c t o r s u g g e s t s t h e u n i q u e p o s i t i o n o f New Y o r k a s a n a t i o n a l c o m m e r c i a l c e n t r e : i t s r o l e i n t h e c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f a c t i v i t y i m p l i e s a n e e d f o r c o m m u n i c a t i o n a l m o s t r e g a r d l e s s o f d i s t a n c e . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e C h i c a g o e q u a t i o n s u g g e s t s i t s p o s i t i o n a s a r e g i o n a l c e n t r e , w i t h t h e 49 v o l u m e o f t r a f f i c d e c r e a s i n g r a p i d l y a s d i s t a n c e i n c r e a s e s . M o r e o v e r , t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f t h e i n c o m e v a r i a b l e i s a f f e c t e d by c i t y s i z e . The New Y o r k r e g r e s s i o n g a v e a c o e f f i c i e n t l e s s t h a n a f i f t h t h e s i z e o f t h a t c a l c u l a t e d f o r C h i c a g o . On t h i s i n c o n s i s t e n t r e s u l t , t h e s t u d y n o t e s t h a t : " I f t h e c o m m e r c i a l a s p e c t o f a i r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n c r e a s e s r a p i d l y w i t h c i t y s i z e , a n d i f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n w i t h h i g h i n c o m e s r e f l e c t s t h i s f a c t , t h e n we w o u l d e x p e c t v a r i a t i o n i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l p o p u l a t i o n t o r e f l e c t a r e s u l t s i m i l a r t o t h a t f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n a s a w h o l e . T h a t i t f a i l s t o do s o i n t h e c a s e o f New Y o r k may be due t o o t h e r f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h New Y o r k a s a n a t i o n a l c e n t r e . I n a n y c a s e , i t c o n s t i t u t e s a s e r i o u s p r o b l e m t h a t m u s t be t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f a more c o m p l e t e t h e o r y o f i n t e r u r b a n c o m m u n i c a t i o n s . " 5 0 2 The R v a l u e o f b o t h t h e e q u a t i o n s s u g g e s t a l a r g e p e r c e n t a g e o f v a r i a t i o n s i n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n a r e y e t t o be e x p l a i n e d . I n t h i s r e g a r d v e r y l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e i s n o t e d b e t w e e n New Y o r k a n d C h i c a g o m o d e l s . T h i s c e r t a i n l y i n d i c a t e s t h a t a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m a n y c o m m u n i t y n e e d s t o be i n v e s t i g a t e d b e y o n d t h e t h r e e p a r a m e t e r s , i . e . d i s -24 t a n c e , p o p u l a t i o n s i z e , a n d f a m i l y i n c o m e . The a n a l y s i s was p u r s u e d f u r t h e r i n o r d e r t o s t u d y t h e e f f e c t o f d i s t a n c e on a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . I n t h e r e v i s e d e q u a t i o n t h e i n d e -p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s w e r e t h e d i s t a n c e b e t w e e n c i t i e s i a n d j , a n d a l l t h e o t h e r f a c t o r s - p o p u l a t i o n , i n c o m e , c l i m a t e , e c o n o m i c r o l e e t c . - p e c u l i a r t o i n d i v i d u a l c i t i e s w e r e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i n dummy v a r i a b l e s C^ a n d Cy The r e v i s e d m o d e l i s a s f o l l o w s : L o g t . . = a + b L o g d. . + C. + C. i j i j i J The s t u d y f i n a l l y c o n c l u d e d t h a t a i r t r a v e l b e t w e e n two c i t i e s v a r i e s d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n a n d i n c o m e a n d i n v e r s e l y w i t h t h e d i s t a n c e b e t w e e n t h e m , a n d i s a l s o i n f l u e n c e d by o t h e r f a c t o r s p e c u l i a r t o t h e c i t i e s i n v o l v e d . I t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e a b o v e s t u d y was c a r r i e d o u t t o t e s t a h y p o t h e s i s s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l . I t i s , h o w e v e r , t r u e t h a t i n t h i s s t u d y r e s e a r c h e r s h a v e f a i l e d t o e x p l o r e i n d e t a i l t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e ' o t h e r p e c u l i a r i t i e s * o f c i t i e s . C o n c l u s i o n F r om a s u r v e y o f t h e e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e on t h e s u b j e c t , t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n e l u s i o n s c a n be d r a w n : 1. W h i l e a l a r g e number o f u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w e r e f o u n d t o be 51 f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g i n t e r c i t y t r a v e l by a l l modes o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , o n l y a f e w o f them w e r e s t u d i e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i n p a r -t i c u l a r . I t i s , h o w e v e r , n o t e d t h a t t h e m a r k e t a n a l y s i s m e t h o d , w h i c h d e a l s w i t h a l a r g e number o f v a r i a b l e s , c a n a l s o be u s e d t o d e t e r m i n e a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m c o m m u n i t i e s . The p r o b l e m w i t h t h i s m o d e l i s t h a t i t i s b a s e d o n l y on t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a i r t r a v e l l e r s (who c o n s t i t u t e t h e a i r t r a v e l ' m a r k e t ' ) . T h u s a number o f u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s u c h a s s i z e , 25 c o m m u n i t y s t r u c t u r e a n d many o t h e r s o c i a l f a c t o r s , a r e n o t t a k e n i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n . 2. I t i s c l e a r f r o m t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e v i e w e d t h a t t h e p r i m a r y o b j e c -t i v e o f m o s t o f t h e s e s t u d i e s i s t o o b t a i n a g o o d c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t , a n d l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n t o e x p l a i n i n g t h e whys o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r -a t i o n . A f e w v a r i a b l e s , s u c h a s p o p u l a t i o n , d i s t a n c e ( t i m e , f a r e s o r m i l e s ) a n d i n c o m e , w e r e f o u n d a t t r a c t i v e to many r e s e a r c h e r s . A t t e m p t s t o i n d e x u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by m u l t i p l i c a t i v e w e i g h t s i n g r a v i t y m o d e l s , o r by dummy v a r i a b l e s i n r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , w e r e c a r r i e d o u t m a i n l y t o o b t a i n g o o d p r e d i c t i v e e q u a t i o n s . T h e s e e q u a t i o n s s e r v e t h e p u r p o s e i n i d e n t i f y i n g some o f t h e u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t h e l p g e n e r a t e a i r p a s s e n g e r s . 3. A number o f m e t h o d s h a v e b e e n u s e d i n t h e p a s t i n c l a s s i f y i n g t h e c i t i e s i n t o s e v e r a l e x c l u s i v e g r o u p s . The p u r p o s e o f t h i s was t o d e v e l o p 52 a n i n t e r c i t y t r a v e l e q u a t i o n f o r e a c h o f t h e s e g r o u p s . B u t t h e m e t h o d o f a n a l y s i s a d o p t e d i n g r o u p i n g t h e c i t i e s o n l y p e r m i t s t h e u s e o f a f e w v a r i -a b l e s a t a t i m e . F u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i s t h e r e f o r e n e c e s s a r y t o r e l a t e t h e w h o l e r a n g e o f a c i t y ' s s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . 26 FOOTNOTES 21 J o h n E. P e t e r s o n , A i r p o r t f o r J e t s , The A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , 1 9 5 9 , p . 1 1 . 22 The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y , A v i a t i o n D e p a r t m e n t , F o r e c a s t a n d A n a l y s i s D i v i s i o n , A i r T r a v e l F o r e c a s t i n g : 1 9 6 5 - 1 9 7 5 , The Eno F o u n d a t i o n f o r H i g h w a y T r a f f i c C o n t r o l , S a u g a t u c k , C o n n e c t i c u t , J a n u a r y 1 9 5 7 , p . 1 8 ; s e e a l s o P h i l l i p S c h a r y a n d R o b e r t 1*1. W i l l i a m s , o p . c i t . , p p . 4 1 - 6 9 . 23 The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y , I b i d . , p. 1 9 . 24 S e e T a b l e s 9 a n d 1 0 . 25 R i g a s D o g a n i s , " T r a f f i c F o r e c a s t i n g a n d t h e ' G r a v i t y M o d e l " ' , F l i g h t I n t e r n a t i o n a l , 2 9 t h S e p t e m b e r 1 9 6 6 , p p . 8 9 - 9 0 . 26 J . Q. S t e w a r t , "An I n v e r s e D i s t a n c e V a r i a t i o n f o r C e r t a i n S o c i a l I n f l u e n c e s " , S c i e n c e , V o l . 9 3 : 2 4 0 4 , J a n u a r y 1 9 4 1 , p p . 8 9 - 9 0 . 27 D ' A r c y H a r v e y , " A i r l i n e P a s s e n g e r T r a f f i c P a t t e r n w i t h i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " , J o u r n a l o f A i r Law a n d Commerce, V o l . 1 8 , 1 9 5 1 , p p . 1 5 7 -1 6 5 ; s e e a l s o E d w a r d J . T a a f f e , " A i r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d U n i t e d S t a t e s U r b a n D i s t r i b u t i o n " , The G e o g r a p h i c a l R e v i e w , A p r i l 1 9 5 6 , p p . 2 1 9 - 2 3 8 . 28 W. I s a r d , M e t h o d o f R e g i o n a l A n a l y s i s : An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o  R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e , M .I.T. P r e s s , 1 9 6 0 , p p . 2 3 2 - 3 0 5 . 29 C a r l Hammer a n d F r e d C h a r l s I k l e , " I n t e r c i t y T e l e p h o n e a n d A i r l i n e T r a f f i c R e l a t e d t o D i s t a n c e a n d t h e ' P r o p e n s i t y t o I n t e r a c t ' " , S o c i o m e t r y , V o l . 2 0 , 1 9 5 7 , p p . 3 0 6 - 3 1 6 . D o g a n i s , o p . c i t . 31 D. M. B e l m o n t , "A P a t t e r n o f I n t e r s t a t i o n A i r l i n e T r a f f i c " , T r a n s a c t i o n s o f t h e A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r s , V o l . 1 2 2 , 1 9 5 7 , p p . 8 6 4 - 8 7 1 . 32 D o g a n i s , o p . c i t . , p . 5 4 8 . 33 W e s l e y H. L o n g , " C i t y C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d t h e Demand f o r I n t e r u r b a n A i r T r a v e l " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 4 4 , May 1 9 6 8 , p p . 1 9 7 - 2 0 4 . 34 G. R. M a y h i l l , "A C r i t i q u e o f t h e CAA S t u d i e s on t h e A i r T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , " J o u r n a l o f A i r Law a n d Commerce, V o l . 2 0 , May 1 9 5 3 , p p . 1 5 8 - 1 7 7 . S a m u e l B. R i c h m o n d , " I n t e r s p a t i a l R e l a t i o n s h i p s A f f e c t i n g A i r T r a v e l " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 4 4 , May 1 9 6 8 , p p . 1 9 7 - 2 0 4 . 27 36 F r e d C h a r l s I k l e , " S o c i o l o g i c a l R e l a t i o n s h i p o f T r a f f i c t o P o p u l a t i o n a n d D i s t a n c e " , T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , U o l . 8, 1 9 5 4 , p . 1 2 9 . 37 E d w a r d J . T a a f f e , "The U r b a n H i e r a r c h y : An A i r P a s s e n g e r D e f i n i t i o n " , E c o n o m i c G e o g r a p h y , U o l . 3 8 , 1 9 6 2 , p . 1 3 . 38 D o g a n i s , o p . c i t . , p . 5 4 8 . 39 I k l e , o p . c i t . , p . 1 3 3 . 4CL . . . c - x o D o g a n i s , o p . c i t . , p . 5 4 9 . 41 U. S. D e p a r t m e n t o f Commerce, o p , c i t . ; s e e a l s o U. S. F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n A g e n c y , o p . c i t . 42 H a r o l d H. H a y e r , " M a k i n g a L i v i n g i n C i t i e s : The U r b a n E c o n o m i c B a s e " , J o u r n a l o f G e o g r a p h y , F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 9 , p p . 8 2 - 8 3 . 43 J . B. L a n s i n g a n d D. 1*1. B l o o d , "A C r o s s S e c t i o n A n a l y s i s o f Non B u s i n e s s A i r T r a v e l " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , D e c e m b e r 1 9 5 8 , p p . 9 2 8 - 9 4 7 . 44 I b i d . 45 Demand f o r a i r t r a v e l t e n d s t o r e m a i n f a i r l y c o n s t a n t f o r f a m i l y i n c o m e s u n d e r $ 7 , 5 0 0 a n d t h e n b e g i n s t o i n c r e a s e . The e x c e s s f a m i l y i n c o m e i s d e f i n e d a s t h e i n c o m e o v e r $ 7 , 5 0 0 . S e e S c h r i e v e r a n d S e i f e r t , o ' p : . ~ c i t . , p p . 4 3 - 4 4 . 46 I b i d . , p . 4 2 . 47 S a m u e l B. R i c h m o n d , " F o r e c a s t i n g A i r P a s s e n g e r T r a f f i c by M u l t i p l R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s " , J o u r n a l o f A i r Law a n d Commerce, U o l . 2 2 , 1 9 5 5 , p p . 4 3 5 - 4 4 4 . 48 J . B. L a n s i n g , J . L i u a n d D. B. S u i t s , "An A n a l y s i s o f I n t e r u r b a n A i r T r a v e l " , Q u a r t e r l y J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , U o l . 7 5 , F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 1 , p p . 87 49 I b i d . , p . 9 4 . 50 I b i d . , p. 9 5 . 51 U o g t , I.vers a n d A s s o c i a t e s , o p . c i t . 5 2 . . . , I b i d . 28 CHAPTER I I I METHOD OF A N A L Y S I S AND DATA The r e s e a r c h a p p r o a c h d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r One e s t a b l i s h e s t h e d i f f e r e n t m e t h o d s o f a n a l y s i s t o be f o l l o w e d i n t h i s s t u d y . I n t h i s c h a p t e r a n a t t e m p t h a s b e e n made t o d e s c r i b e t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f e a c h o f t h e s e m e t h o d s . T h i s c h a p t e r a l s o i n c l u d e s a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e d a t a s e l e c t e d f o r t h e a n a l y s i s . F a c t o r A n a l y s i s F a c t o r a n a l y s i s i s a m a t h e m a t i c a l m e t h o d o f a n a l y z i n g a s e t o f o b s e r v a t i o n s ( o b t a i n e d f r o m a g i v e n s a m p l e ) by s t u d y i n g t h e i r i n t e r c o r -r e l a t i o n s , i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r t h e v a r i a t i o n s r e p r e s e n t e d c a n be a d e q u a t e l y a c c o u n t e d f o r by a s m a l l e r n u mber o f b a s i c c a t e g o r i e s t h a n w e r e u s e d a t t h e s t a r t o f t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n . T h u s d a t a o b t a i n e d by a l a r g e number o f a p r i o r i m e a s u r e s may be e x p l a i n e d i n t e r m s o f a s m a l l e r n umber o f r e f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e s . S t a t e d s i m p l y , f a c t o r a n a l y s i s d e m o n s t r a t e s how some v a r i a b l e s c a n be g r o u p e d t o g e t h e r b e c a u s e t h e y b e h a v e s i m i l a r l y , a n d i t d e l i n e a t e s new i n d e p e n d e n t , u n d e r l y i n g f a c t o r s w h i c h a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h i s g r o u p i n g . F o r e x a m p l e , we h a v e t h e r e s u l t s o f e i g h t h y p o t h e t i c a l t e s t s , t h e c o r r e l a t i o n v e c t o r s o f w h i c h a r e r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 4. The a n g l e b e t w e e n a n y two o f t h e s e v e c t o r s m e a s u r e s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e m . The c l o s e r t h e a n g l e t o 9 0 ° , t h e w e a k e r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p . S i m i l a r l y , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p i s s t r o n g e r when t h e a n g l e b e t w e e n them i s c l o s e s t t o z e r o . The c o n f i g u r a t i o n o f t h e e i g h t v e c t o r s s h o w s t h a t t h e y f a l l i n t o two d i s t i n c t c l u s t e r s . T h i s means t h a t t h e v e c t o r s i n e a c h c l u s t e r a r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o e a c h o t h e r . What a r e c a l l e d ' f a c t o r s ' a r e " n o t h i n g more t h a n c o o r d i n a t e FIGURE 4 REPRESENTATION OF EIGHT HYPOTHETICAL V A R I A B L E S ON TWO FACTORS TABLE 3 FACTOR LOADINGS OF EIGHT HYPOTHETICAL V A R I A B L E S V a r i a b l e s U n r o t a t e d R o t a t e d L o a d i n g s L o a d i n g s _ _ _ — 1 2 1 2 1 0.76 0.48 0.25 0.85 2 0.83 0.51 0.27 0.92 3 0.59 0.73 - 0 . 0 2 0.95 4 0.63 0.66 0.01 0.91 5 0.77 - 0 . 6 0 0.98 0.08 6 0.64 -0.71 0.97 -0 . 0 8 7 0.72 - 0 . 5 3 0.91 0.09 8 0.81 - 0 . 5 8 0.96 0.13 S o u r c e : R.D.Rummel, " U n d e r s t a n d i n g F a c t o r A n a l y s i s " , J o u r n a l  o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , V o l . I I , No. 4, 1 9 6 7 , p . 4 7 3 . 30 a x e s i m p o s e d u p o n t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t e s t v e c t o r s b u i l t up f r o m c o r r e l a t i o n s , a s shown by a n d F^ i n F i g u r e 4; t h i s f i g u r e p r e s e n t s a c a s e w h e r e o n l y t wo f a c t o r s a r e i n v o l v e d . By t h i s means a n y one t e s t c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e n u m e r i c a l v a l u e o f i t s p r o j e c t i o n s on t h e two c o o r d i n a t e s . F o r e x a m p l e , t e s t 4 i s r e s o l v e d i n t o +0.63 o f F^ a n d +0.64 o f F^. I n t h i s way e i g h t t e s t s c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d i n t e r m s o f o n l y two f a c t o r s . T h u s e a c h s u b j e c t c a n t h e n be a s s i g n e d s c o r e s on t h e s e two f a c t o r s i n s t e a d o f s c o r e s on e i g h t t e s t s . The t e c h n i q u e o f f a c t o r a n a l y s i s a l s o i n c l u d e s t h e r o t a t i o n o f f a c -t o r a x e s . By means o f t h i s r o t a t i o n e a c h f a c t o r i s made t o d e f i n e a d i s t i n c t c l u s t e r o f i n t e r r e l a t e d t e s t s . The l o a d i n g s o f t h e e i g h t t e s t s on two u n -r o t a t e d f a c t o r s F^ a n d F 2 a r e shown din T a b l e 3. T h i s t a b l e i n d i c a t e s t h a t e a c h f a c t o r i s r e l a t e d t o a l m o s t a l l o f t h e t e s t s a n d t h e a m o u n t o f l o a d i n g s v a r i e s f r o m h i g h t o m o d e r a t e . T h u s i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d i s t i n g u i s h t h e c l u s t e r s o f t e s t s f r o m t h e s e l o a d i n g s . I n t h e r o t a t i o n m e t h o d , t h e f i r s t f a c t o r F^ i s r o t a t e d t o F j u n t i l i t d e f i n e s a d i s t i n c t c l u s t e r o f i n t e r -r e l a t e d t e s t s ( F i g . 4 ) , a n d t h e s e c o n d f a c t o r F^ i s p l a c e d a t a r i g h t a n g l e ( o r t h o g o n a l ) t o t h e f i r s t . T h r o u g h t h i s r o t a t i o n t h e f a c t o r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s h i f t s f r o m u n r o t a t e d f a c t o r s d e l i n e a t i n g t h e m o s t g e n e r a l p a t t e r n o f t h e t e s t s , t o f a c t o r s d e l i n e a t i n g d i s t i n c t g r o u p s o f i n t e r r e l a t e d t e s t s . I n o u r e x a m p l e , t h e c l u s t e r s a r e e a s i l y d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e f r o m t h e r o t a t e d f a c t o r l o a d i n g s . T a b l e 3 a l s o s h o w s t h a t e a c h t e s t c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d by one o f t h e f a c t o r s . A number o f t e c h n i q u e s c a n be u s e d f o r f a c t o r a n a l y s i s . The m e t h o d o f p r i n c i p a l c o m p o n e n t a n a l y s i s h a s b e e n c h o s e n f o r t h i s s t u d y . The a d v a n -t a g e o f t h i s m e t h o d o v e r o t h e r s i s t h a t i t d e t e r m i n e s t h e f a c t o r s f r o m a s e t o f g i v e n d a t a , a n d no a s s u m p t i o n i s r e q u i r e d o f i t s common a n d u n i q u e 53 fi p a r t o f v a r i a t i o n s i n a s e t o f v a r i a b l e s . ' 3 1 The c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x i n t h e p r i n c i p a l c o m p o n e n t m e t h o d i s f a c t o r e d w i t h u n i t s i n d i a g o n a l a n d t h e number o f f a c t o r s , p , a r e e q u a l t o t h e number o f v a r i a b l e s , m. S i n c e p = in i s h a r d l y a n o t e w o r t h y r e d u c t i o n i n t h e number o f v a r i a b l e s , c o m p o n e n t a n a l y s i s i s g e n e r a l l y c a r r i e d o u t u s i n g a t e c h n i q u e ( e . g . p r i n c i p a l a x e s ) t h a t c l a s s i f i e s t h e f a c t o r s f o u n d i n t e r m s o f t h e amount o f v a r i a n c e t h e y d e f i n e . I t c a n g e n e r a l l y be o b s e r v e d t h a t t h e f a c -t o r s w i t h e i g e n v a l u e l e s s t h a n u n i t y a c c o u n t f o r t r i v i a l v a r i a n c e s . T h e r e -f o r e , i n t h e p r e s e n t a n a l y s i s , t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e i g n o r e d ; i n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e f a c t o r s w i t h e i g e n v a l u e e q u a l t o , o r g r e a t e r t h a n , u n i t y a r e r e t a i n e d . M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s Where a d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e i s a s s u m e d t o be i n f l u e n c e d by more t h a n one i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e , a n d t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p i s l i n e a r , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n . Y = a + b n X , + b X 1 1 m m Where Y r e p r e s e n t s t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a n d X^, . . . . X m r e p r e s e n t s t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . The m e t h o d o f m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n e s t a b l i s h e s t h e unknown p a r a m e t e r s i n t h e a b o v e e q u a t i o n f r o m a s e t o f known s c o r e s on Y a n d c o r r e s p o n d i n g X ' s . G r o u p i n g A n a l y s i s F o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y , t h e m e t h o d o f h i e r a r c h i c a l g r o u p i n g h a s b e e n s e l e c t e d f r o m a number o f a v a i l a b l e t e c h n i q u e s , f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g r e a s o n s : 1. I t e x h i b i t s t h e maximum h o m o g e n e i t y w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p , a n d 2. The g r o u p s i z e s e s t a b l i s h e d by u s i n g t h i s t e c h n i q u e a r e a l m o s t e q u a l . T h i s means r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s c a n be p e r f o r m e d on a l m o s t a l l o f 54 t h e g r o u p s w i t h f e w e r s u b j e c t s t h a n t h e number r e q u i r e d by o t h e r t e c h n i q u e s . 32 T h i s g r o u p i n g p r o c e s s commences w i t h a c o m p a r i s o n o f a s e r i e s o f l\l s c o r e p r o f i l e s w i t h a s e r i e s o f K v a r i a b l e s , a n d p r o g r e s s i v e l y c l a s s i f i e s t hem i n t o g r o u p s i n s u c h a way a s t o m i n i m i z e a n o v e r a l l e s t i m a t e o f v a r i -a t i o n w i t h i n e a c h g r o u p . I n o t h e r w o r d s , i t d e f i n e s e a c h s u b j e c t a s a g r o u p , a n d r e d u c e s t h e s e N g r o u p s by a s e r i e s o f s t e p d e c i s i o n s u n t i l a l l N s u b j e c t s h a v e b e e n c l a s s i f i e d i n t o one g r o u p . The c r i t e r i o n f o r d e t e r m i n i n g w h i c h p a i r i s t o be c o m b i n e d i s e s t a b l i s h e d on t h e b a s i s o f a ' v a l u e -55 r e f l e c t i n g ' number w h i c h i s m i n i m a l l y i n c r e a s e d a t e a c h s t e p . Ward d e s -c r i b e s t h i s v a l u e - r e f l e c t i n g n u mber a s t h e l o s s o f i n f o r m a t i o n i n t h e 56 g r o u p i n g p r o c e s s . The v a l u e - r e f l e c t i n g number f o r a g r o u p i s d e t e r m i n e d by t h e e r r o r sum o f s q u a r e s (ESS) o f t h e s c o r e , w h i c h i s d e r i v e d by t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n : E S S = l * * - \(£*if F o r e x a m p l e , s c o r e s o f e i g h t i n d i v i d u a l s on a t e s t a r e ( 2 , 5 , 3 , 2 , 1 , 1 , 5 , 2 ) . ESS o f t h e g r o u p o f e i g h t i s a s f o l l o w s : ESS = X *£ - y 8 ( Z x L ) 2 = 73 - 5 5 - I & I f t h e e i g h t i n d i v i d u a l s a r e c l a s s i f i e d i n t o 4 g r o u p s ( 2 , 2 , 2 ) ( 5 , 5 ) ( 1 , 1 ) ( 3 ) t h e ESS c a n be e v a l u a t e d a s f o l l o w s : ^ ^ ( 4 g r o u p s ) ^ " ^ ( g r o u p I ) + ^ ^ ( g r o u p I I ) + ^ " ^ ( g r o u p I I I ) + ESS / .... = 0 ( g r o u p I U ) The c o m p u t e r o u t p u t o f t h i s a n a l y s i s s h o w s t h i s v a l u e - r e f l e c t i n g n u m ber o r e r r o r i n d e x a t e a c h s t e p o f t h e g r o u p i n g p r o c e s s . The h i g h e r t h i s 57 e r r o r v a l u e , t h e g r e a t e r t h e l o s s o f i n f o r m a t i o n . The o u t p u t a l s o s h o w s a ' s e l e c t i o n - v a l u e ' f o r e a c h s t e p o f t h e g r o u p i n g . T h i s v a l u e r e p r e s e n t s t h e r a t i o o f t h e p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e i n 58 e r r o r t o t h e p e r c e n t a g e d e c r e a s e i n t h e n u mber o f g r o u p s . The s e l e c t i o n o f t h e n u mber o f g r o u p s d e p e n d s p r i m a r i l y on t h e 33 s u b j e c t i v e j u d g e m e n t o f t h e r e s e a r c h e r ; i n o t h e r w o r d s , i t d e p e n d s on how much e r r o r o r l o s s o f i n f o r m a t i o n one w i l l a l l o w i n t h e r e s e a r c h by s e l e c -t i n g t h e g r o u p s a t a n y s t e p i n t h e g r o u p i n g p r o c e s s . The V a r i a b l e s A s e r i e s o f u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e r e v i e w e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n i n a n a t t e m p t t o r e b a t e a v a i l a b l e d a t a t o t h e p r e l i m i n a r y h y p o t h e s i s . The p u r p o s e o f t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s t o s e l e c t t h o s e p a t t e r n s o f a i r t r a v e l s t u d i e d i n p r e v i o u s s u r v e y s a n d r e s e a r c h w h i c h m i g h t be more c l e a r l y d e f i n e d by t h i s s t u d y . The v a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n w h i c h w e r e f o u n d i m p o r t a n t i n e a r l i e r s t u d i e s c a n be b r o a d l y d i v i d e d i n t o two g r o u p s . T h e s e a r e : t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a i r t r a v e l l e r s , a n d t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f c i t i e s . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a i r t r a v e l l e r s . I n T a b l e 4, t h e v a r i a b l e s l i s t e d u n d e r t h e h e a d i n g s p o p u l a t i o n , l i f e c y c l e , e t h n i c i t y , s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g , e d u c a t i o n a n d h o u s i n g r e p r e s e n t t h e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e members o f a c o m m u n i t y a s s u m e d t o be p o t e n t i a l a i r t r a v e l l e r s . The r e l a t i o n -s h i p o f some o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s t o a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i s shown i n t h e 59 r e s u l t s o f a s u r v e y o f New Y o r k t r a v e l l e r s ( s e e T a b l e 5 ) . T h i s s u r v e y c l e a r l y s h o w s t h a t t h e m a l e s e c t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n , a g e d b e t w e e n 2 5 - 6 4 y e a r s , a n d t h o s e w i t h h i g h f a m i l y i n c o m e s t r a v e l m o s t f r e q u e n t l y by a i r . The l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n i s a l s o a n i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e i n e x p l a i n i n g t h e f r e q u e n c y o f a i r t r a v e l . The s u r v e y f i n d i n g s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e amount o f a i r t r a v e l among a d u l t s i n c r e a s e s w i t h a h i g h e r l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n , e v e n when t h e f a m i l y i n c o m e r e m a i n s c o n s t a n t . ^ I n t h i s s t u d y i t i s f e l t u n -n e c e s s a r y t o i n c l u d e e d u c a t i o n a s a s e p a r a t e f a c t o r , s i n c e t h e e d u c a t i o n a l TABLE 4 THIRTY-TWO V A R I A B L E S No. Name  P o p u l a t i o n : 1. 1961 P o p u l a t i o n ( O O O ) . 2. M a l e t o f e m a l e r a t i o . 3. % o f p o p u l a t i o n i n l a b o u r f o r c e . L i f e C y c l e : 4. % of p o p u l a t i o n b e t w e e n 0 - 1 9 y r s . o f a g e . 5. % o f p o p u l a t i o n b e t w e e n 2 0 - 3 4 y r s . o f a g e . 6. % o f p o p u l a t i o n between 3 5 - 6 4 y r s . o f a g e . 7. % o f p o p u l a t i o n b e t w e e n 6 5 y r s . o f age o r o v e r . E t h n i c i t y : 6. % o f p o p u l a t i o n o f B r i t i s h o r i g i n . 9. % o f p o p u l a t i o n o f F r e n c h o r i g i n . 10. % of p o p u l a t i o n o f o t h e r E u r o p e a n o r i g i n . S t a n d a r d o f L i v i n g : 1 1 . % of f a m i l i e s e a r n i n g $5,999 o r l e s s a y e a r . 12. % o f f a m i l i e s e a r n i n g b e t w e e n $6,000 & "$9,999 a y e a r . 1 3 . % o f f a m i l i e s e a r n i n g $10,000 o r more a y e a r . IU. A v e r a g e p e r s o n i n e a c h h o u s e h o l d . E d u c a t i o n : 15. No. o f u n i v e r s i t y s t u d e n t s ! 0 0 0 ) . H o u s i n g : 16. % o f s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s . 1 7 . % o f a p a r t m e n t s . 18. % o f home owned. L o c a t i o n : 19. No. o f c i t i e s ( 1 0 , 0 0 0 + ) w i t h i n 100 m i l e r a d i u s . 2 0 . D i s t a n c e t o c l o s e s t o f M o n t r e a l . T o r o n t o & V a n c o u v e r . Employment by O c c u p a t i o n : 2 1 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n M a n a g e r i a l & P r o f e s s i o n a l . 22. % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n S a l e s . 23. % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n C l e r i c a l . 24. % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n S e r v i c e & R e c r i a t i o n . Employment by I n d u s t r y : 25. % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n M i n i n g . 26. % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n M a n u f a c t u r i n g . 27. % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n P u b l i c A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . 28. $i o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n . 29. S o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n W h o l e s a l e & R e t a i l T r a d e . Economy: 30 . P e r c a p i t a a n n u a l r e t a i l s a l e s i n d o l l a r s . 31 . P e r c a p i t a a n n u a l w h o l e s a l e s a l e s i n d o l l a r s . 32. P e r c a p i t a a n n u a l s a l e s i n s e r v i c e t r a d e s i n d o l l a r s . TABLE 5 C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S DF NEW YORK'S A I R T R A V E L L E R S P e r c e n t a g e o f T r a v e l l e r s 1 . Age fc Sex: Between 12 -Between 25 -Between 45 -6 5 y r s . & Over > M a l e Female T o t a l 2 4 y r s . •7 6 1 3 4 4 y r s . 3 9 1 2 5 1 6 4 y r s . 2 5 8 3 3 2 1 3 T o t a l 7 3 2 7 1 0 0 2 . F a m i l y Income: Under 3,000-6,000-10,000-3,000 5,999 9,999 $19,999 Unknown Income Total 4 1 4 2 2 * 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 . O c c u p a t i o n : P r o f e s s i o n a l , T e c h n i c a l M a n a g e r , O f f i c i a l S a l e s m a n S e c r e t a r y , C l e r k M e c h a n i c s & C r a f t s m a n O t h e r s & Unknown O c c u p a t i o n H o u s e w i f e S t u d e n t s Armed F o r c e s R e t i r e d T o t a l 3 0 2 8 9 5 2 3 1 2 5 5 1 1 0 0 4 » I n d u s t r y A g r i c u l t u r e M i n i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n M a n u f a c t u r i n g T r a n s p o r t k U t i l i t i e s Government E n t e r t a i n m e n t W h o l e s a l e & R e t a i l B u s i n e s s & P e r s o n a l S e r v i c e s F i n a n c e , I n s u r a n c e &. R e a l E s t a t e M e d i c i n e , L a w , R e l i g i o n & E d u c a t i o n Not R e p o r t e d T o t a l 1 1 5 '1 4 2 1 5 9 8 7 3 1 0 0 The p e r c e n t a g e s shown u n d e r t h i s c a t a g o r y a r e f o r b u s i n e s s t r i p s o n l y . S o u r c e : The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y . A v i a t i o n D e p a r t m e n t F o r e c a s t and A n a l y s i s D i v i s i o n , N e w Y o r k ' s A i r . T r a v e l l e r s , T h e Eno F o u n d a t i o n f o r Highway T r a f f i c C o n t r o l , S a u g a t u c k , C o n n e c t i c u t , 1 9 5 6 , 36 l e v e l i s g e n e r a l l y i m p l i e d by a p e r s o n ' s o c c u p a t i o n a n d , i n p a r t , by t h e ' i n d u s t r y he i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h . H o w e v e r , a s n e i t h e r t h e o c c u p a t i o n n o r t h e i n d u s t r y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i n c l u d e t h e s t u d e n t p o p u l a t i o n , u n i v e r s i t y s t u d e n t s a r e c o n s i d e r e d a s a s e p a r a t e v a r i a b l e . The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n e t h n i c a n d h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , a n d a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i s n o t y e t c l e a r l y k n o w n . H o w e v e r , V o g t , I v e r s a n d A s s o c i a t e s n o t e t h a t e t h n i c t i e s b e t w e e n c o m m u n i t i e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t i n 61 d e t e r m i n i n g i n t e r c i t y t r a v e l . H o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y i n o r d e r t o r e i n f o r c e t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f a number o f o t h e r v a r i a b l e s . F o r e x a m p l e , s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s e s c a n be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f a m i l y s i z e , w h e r e a s , t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f h o u s e s owned c a n a c t a s a n i n d i c a t o r o f t h e e c o n o m i c w e l l -b e i n g o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f c i t i e s . The e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a commu-n i t y a r e g e n e r a l l y i n d i c a t e d by t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e e n g a g e d i n 62 d i f f e r e n t e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s . T a b l e 5 s h o w s t h a t p e o p l e e n g a g e d i n s u c h o c c u p a t i o n s a s t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l - t e c h n i c a l , m a n a g e r - o f f i c i a l , t o g e t h e r w i t h h o u s e w i v e s , t r a v e l more by a i r t h a n o t h e r s . S i m i l a r l y , t h o s e i n t h e m a n u f a c -t u r i n g a n d w h o l e s a l e - r e t a i l i n d u s t r i e s g e n e r a t e more t h a n f i f t y p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l a i r p a s s e n g e r t r a f f i c f r o m New Y o r k . I n t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y t h e e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f c i t i e s h a v e b e e n r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e e n g a g e d i n f o u r m a j o r t y p e s o f o c c u p a t i o n s a n d f i v e t y p e s o f i n d u s t r i e s . The e c o n o m i c r o l e o f c o m m u n i t i e s i s a l s o a s s e s s e d by s t u d y i n g p e r 63 c a p i t a s a l e s i n t h e w h o l e s a l e , r e t a i l a n d s e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s . M a x w e l l n o t e s t h a t t h e s e e c o n o m i c f u n c t i o n s p r e d o m i n a t e i n a l a r g e n u mber o f C a n a d i a n c o m m u n i t i e s . T r a v e l e n a b l e s p e o p l e t o s a t i s f y t h e i r d e s i r e s i n a r e a s o t h e r t h a n t h e o n e s i n w h i c h t h e y l i v e . O p p o r t u n i t i e s t o s a t i s f y human d e s i r e s i n c r e a s e 37 w i t h c i t y s i z e , b e c a u s e t h e g o o d s a v a i l a b l e f o r c o n s u m p t i o n a n d e n t e r t a i n -ment f a c i l i t i e s i n c r e a s e i n number a n d v a r i e t y w i t h a n i n c r e a s e i n c i t y s i z e . T h u s , a s c i t y s i z e i n c r e a s e s t h e a m o unt o f t r a v e l away f r o m t h e c i t y ( b y r e s i d e n t s ) d e c r e a s e s a n d t h e a m o unt o f t r a v e l t o i t ( b y n o n - r e s i d e n t s ) 64 i n c r e a s e s . F i g u r e 1 s u g g e s t s t h a t m o s t i n t e r c i t y a i r t r a v e l g r a v i t a t e s t o w a r d t h e l a r g e r c i t i e s i n a h i e r a r c h i c a l m a n n e r a s p e o p l e a t t e m p t t o s a t i s f y t h e i r d e s i r e s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e s i z e o f a c o m m u n i t y i s p r o b a b l y a n i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t o f i t s a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . The s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c o m m u n i t i e s a l s o d e t e r m i n e s t h e i r f u n c -t i o n . M a x w e l l d e m o n s t r a t e s t h a t i n C a n a d a , c i t i e s w i t h h i g h m a n u f a c t u r i n g a c t i v i t y a r e f o u n d i n c l u s t e r s f o c u s e d on T o r o n t o a n d M o n t r e a l . T h e s e c i t i e s f o r m b a s i c u n i t s i n f u l l y i n t e g r a t e d m a n u f a c t u r i n g r e g i o n s w i t h a h i g h d e g r e e o f c o n u r b a t i o n . I n c o n t r a s t , c i t i e s w h i c h a c t a s w h o l e s a l e , r e t a i l , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , r e c r e a t i o n , c o m m u n i t y s e r v i c e , a n d g o v e r n m e n t c e n t r e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by t h e i r h i g h d e g r e e o f c e n t r a l p l a c e f u n c t i o n s a n d t h e i r 65 i s o l a t e d l o c a t i o n . Two v a r i a b l e s i n d i c a t i n g t h e l o c a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f c o m m u n i t i e s a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y . The number o f c i t i e s w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s o f 1 0 , 0 0 0 o r o v e r i n d i c a t e s t h e d e g r e e o f c o n u r b a t i o n , w h e r e a s t h e i r i s o l a t i o n i s i n d i c a t e d by t h e i r d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e t h r e e l a r g e s t u r b a n c e n t r e s i n C a n a d a : M o n t r e a l , T o r o n t o a n d V a n c o u v e r . D a t a T h i r t y - t w o v a r i a b l e s f o r t h i r t y - n i n e C a n a d i a n c i t i e s w e r e s e l e c t e d f o r a n a l y s i s . The names o f t h e s e c i t i e s a n d t h e v a r i a b l e s a r e shown i n T a b l e s 6 a n d 4. T h e i r l o c a t i o n i s shown i n F i g u r e 5. The d a t a was c o l l e c t e d 66 f r o m t h e 1 9 6 1 r e p o r t o f t h e D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , C a n a d a . i n t h i s r e p o r t , some d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e o n l y f o r t h o s e c i t i e s w h i c h h a v e a p o p u l a -t i o n o f 1 0 , 0 0 0 o r o v e r . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , t h e c i t i e s s e l e c t e d f o r a n a l y s i s 38 TABLE 6 1961 POPULATION AND A I R PASSENGER VOLUMES OF 39 CANADIAN C I T I E S Name* P o p u l a t i o n A i r P a s s e n g e r ( 0 0 0 ) V o l u m e 1. B r a n d o n (BRAN) 28.1 2,830 2. C a l g a r y ( C A L G ) 2 7 9 . 0 2 3 1 , 9 1 0 3. C h a r l o t t e t o w n (CHAR) 1 8 . 3 2 4 , 0 7 5 4. E d m o n t o n (EDMO) 3 3 7 . 5 2 5 2 , 1 3 5 5. F l i n F l o n ( F L I N ) 11.1 7,215 6. F o r t W i l l i a m & P o t r A r t h u r ( F W I L ) 93.2 5 6 , 3 9 5 7. F r e d e r i c t o n ( F R E D ) 19.6 3 0 , 7 5 5 8. H a l i f a x ( H A L l ) 1 8 3 . 9 1 7 4 , 0 2 0 9. K a m l o o p s (KAML) 1 0 . 0 7,975 1 0 . K e l o w n a ( K E L O ) 13.1 8,650 1 1 . L e t h b r i d g e ( L E T H ) 35.4 1 1 , 3 1 5 1 2 . L o n d o n (LOND) 1 8 1 . 2 6 3 , 2 0 5 1 3 . M e d i c i n e H a t ( M E D l ) 24.4 2,195 1 4 . M o n c t o n (MQNC) 55.7 7 6 , 5 2 0 1 5 . M o n t r e a l (MONT) 2,109 . 5 7 4 7 , 7 6 5 1 6 . N o r t h B a t t l e f o r d (NOBA) 11.2 2,160 1 7 . N o r t h Bay (NOBY) 23.7 2 3 , 5 2 0 1 8 . O t t a w a (OTWA) 4 2 9 . 7 2 4 2 , 5 1 0 1 9 . P e n t i c t o n ( P E N T ) 13.8 1 8 , 3 2 0 2 0 . P r i n c e A l b e r t ( P R A L ) 24.1 9,490 2 1 . P r i n c e G e o r g e (PRGO) 13.8 1 7 , 9 2 0 2 2 . Q u ebec (QUBE) 3 5 7 . 5 1 3 5 , 6 1 0 2 3 . R e g i n a ( R E G I ) 112.1 9 4 , 1 6 0 2 4 . R i m o u s k i (RIMO) 17.7 4 1 , 7 7 5 2 5 . R i v i e r e - d u - L o u p ( L O U P ) 10.8 3,945 2 6 . S a i n t Dohn, N.B. ( S A 3 0 ) 9 5 . 5 5 0 , 0 8 0 2 7 . S t . J o h n ' s , N f l d . (STDO) 2 8 . S a s k a t o o n ( S A T N ) 90.8 8 1 , 3 9 5 9 5 . 5 6 6 , 0 6 0 2 9 . S a u l t S t e . M a r i e ( M A R I ) 58.4 2 6 , 7 7 0 3 0 . S u d b u r y (SDBR) 1 1 0 . 6 3 1 , 0 8 0 3 1 . S w i f t C u r r e n t (SWCU) 12.1 1,975 3 2 . S y d n e y & G l a c e Bay ( G L B Y ) 106.1 4 7 , 9 3 5 3 3 . T i m m i n s ( T I M l ) 40.1 2 8 , 0 3 5 3 4 . T o r o n t o (TORO) 1,824.4 9 7 7 , 6 8 5 3 5 . V a i D'Or (VAOR) 1 0 . 9 8,905 3 6 . V a n c o u v e r (VANC) 790.1 4 7 9 , 2 7 0 3 7 . V i c t o r i a ( V I C T ) 154.1 1 1 2 , 0 5 0 3 8 . W i n d s o r (WSOR) 1 9 3 . 3 1 1 8 , 0 8 5 3 9 . W i n n i p e g (WPEG) 4 7 5 . 9 2 5 9 , 7 9 0 A b b r e v i a t i o n s w i t h i n p a r e n t h e s e s h a v e b e e n u s e d i n c o m p u t e r a n a l y s i s . CANADA AND NEWFOUNDLAND h a v e a p o p u l a t i o n o f 1 0 , 0 0 0 o r o v e r , a n d a l s o h a v e r e g u l a r a i r s e r v i c e f a c i l i t i e s . The t o t a l n umber o f a i r p a s s e n g e r s o f e a c h o f t h e 39 c i t i e s i s 67 o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e 1 9 6 1 s u r v e y r e p o r t by t h e A i r T r a n s p o r t B o a r d . T h i s 68 s u r v e y was c o n f i n e d t o m a i n l i n e t r a f f i c w i t h i n C a n a d a , a n d f r o m C a n a d a t o U.S.A. I n t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y t h e o r i g i n - d e s t i n a t i o n f i g u r e s w i t h i n C a n a d a a r e r e s t r i c t e d t o d o m e s t i c p a s s e n g e r s . The s a m p l e o f t h e a b o v e s u r v e y was d r a w n f r o m p a s s e n g e r t i c k e t s - 10% on t h e h i g h v o l u m e r o u t e s 69 a n d 20% on a l l o t h e r s . F u r t h e r m o r e , i t was c o m p i l e d on t h e b a s i s o f o n e -way, s i n g l e d i r e c t i o n j o u r n e y s . R o u n d t r i p s , c i r c l e t r i p s a n d o p e n - j a w 70 t r i p s w e r e b r o k e n i n t o two t r i p s . T r i p s t o o f f - m a i n l i n e p o i n t s w e r e c o n s i d e r e d a s b e i n g t e r m i n a t e d a t t h e s t a t i o n w h e r e t h e p a s s e n g e r l e f t t h e m a i n l i n e s y s t e m . The r e p o r t r e c o r d e d 1 02 s t a t i o n s on m a i n l i n e r o u t e s , o f w h i c h o n l y 43 h a d a p o p u l a t i o n e q u a l t o , o r g r e a t e r t h a n , 1 0 , 0 0 0 . A g a i n , o u t o f t h e s e 43 c i t i e s , f o u r s t a t i o n s - K i n g s t o n , Oshawa, P r i n c e R u p e r t a n d S a r n i a - r e p o r t e d t o h a v e b e g u n t h e i r a i r - s e r v i c e f a c i l i t i e s i n 1 9 6 1 . S i n c e t h e t r a f f i c v o l u m e s f o r t h e s e f o u r c i t i e s i n 1 9 6 1 w e r e n o t c o m p a r a b l e t o t h e o t h e r 39 c i t i e s , t h e y a r e n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y . H o w e v e r , i t i s n o t e d t h a t t h e s e 39 c i t i e s r e p r e s e n t a b o u t 88% o f t h e t o t a l d o m e s t i c a i r p a s s e n g e r s g e n e r a t e d i n 1 9 6 1 . 71 The 1957 A t l a s o f C a n a d a i s u s e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e number o f c i t i e s w i t h i n a 100 m i l e r a d i u s o f e a c h o f t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s , a n d t h e d i s t a n c e by a i r b e t w e e n t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s a n d T o r o n t o , M o n t r e a l a n d V a n c o u v e r . 41 FOOTNOTES 53 R. J . Rummel, " U n d e r s t a n d i n g F a c t o r A n a l y s i s " , J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t  R e s o l u t i o n , V o l . 9, No. 4, 1 9 6 7 , p. 4 5 5 . 54 H o w - Y i n L e u n g , o p . c i t . , p p . 1 2 1 - 1 2 3 . 55 U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e , "UBC - C GROUP", No v e m b e r 1 9 7 1 , p. 1, ( M i m e o g r a p h e d ) . 56 J o e H. W a r d . D r . , " H i e r a r c h i c a l G r o u p i n g t o O p t i m i z e a n O b j e c t i v e F u n c t i o n " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , V o l . 5 8 , 1 9 6 3 , p p . 2 3 6 - 2 4 4 . 57 U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , "UBC - C GROUP", o p . c i t . , p p . 1 4 - 1 5 . 5 8 I b i d . , p . 1 4 . 59 The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y , New Y o r k ' s A i r T r a v e l l e r s , o p . c i t . , p p . 2 4 - 3 2 . ^ T h e P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y , A i r T r a v e l F o r e c a s t i n g : 1 9 6 5 - 1 9 6 7 , o p . c i t . , p p . 2 4 - 3 2 . ^ V o g t , I v e r s a n d A s s o c i a t e s , o p . c i t . , p. 4 4 . 6 2 C h a u n c y D. H a r r i s , "A F u n c t i o n a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f C i t i e s " , G e o g r a p h i c a l R e v i e w , V o l . X X X I I I , No. 1, J a n u a r y 1 9 4 3 , p p . 8 6 - 9 9 . 63 J . Id. M a x w e l l , "The F u n c t i o n a l S t r u c t u r e o f C a n a d i a n C i t i e s : A C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f C i t i e s " , G e o g r a p h i c a l B u l l e t i n , V o l . 7, No. 2, 1 9 6 5 , p p . 7 9 - 1 0 4 . 64 V o g t , I v e r s a n d A s s o c i a t e s , o p . c i t . , p p . 3 6 - 3 7 . 65 J . U. M a x w e l l , o p . c i t . ^ D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , 1 9 6 1 C e n s u s o f C a n a d a , V o l . 1,2, 3,4 & 6, O t t a w a . 6 7 A i r T r a n s p o r t B o a r d , O r i g i n a n d D e s t i n a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s : M a i n l i n e  R e v e n u e P a s s e n g e r s D o m e s t i c S u r v e y : 1960-1961,, P r e p a r e d by t h e S t a t i s t i c s S e c t i o n , D e p a r t m e n t o f T r a n s p o r t on b e h a l f o f A i r T r a n s p o r t B o a r d , O t t a w a , C a n a d a , N o v e m b e r 1 9 6 2 . ^ ' M a i n l i n e s • a r e g e n e r a l l y t h o s e w i t h a c o n s i d e r a b l e d e g r e e o f r e g u l a r i t y o f s e r v i c e a n d w i t h a i r c r a f t i n t h e DC3 c l a s s o r l a r g e r . 42 The s u r v e y r e p o r t d o e s n o t i n d i c a t e t h e c i t i e s on h i g h a n d l o w v o l u m e r o u t e s . 70 A ' C i r c l e - T r i p ' i s a r e t u r n j o u r n e y , o f w h i c h t h e g o i n g a n d t h e r e t u r n i n g p o r t i o n s a r e d i f f e r e n t ; an 'Open-Jaw' i s a t r i p i n w h i c h t h e d i s -t a n c e b e t w e e n t h e t r i p ' s o r i g i n a n d i t s f i n a l d e s t i n a t i o n i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e m o s t d i s t a n t p a r t o f t h e j o u r n e y ; e . g . O t t a w a -N o r a n d a / T o r o n t o - O t t a w a i s a c i r c l e - t r i p , a n d O t t a w a - V a n c o u v e r - M o n t r e a l i s a n o p e n - j a w t r i p . A t l a s o f C a n a d a , D e p a r t m e n t o f M i n e s a n d T e c h n i c a l S u r v e y s , G e o g r a p h i c a l B r a n c e , O t t a w a , 1 9 5 7 . 4 3 CHAPTER IV A N A L Y S I S F a c t o r A n a l y s i s T h e e n t i r e r a n g e o f a n a l y s i s d i s c u s s e d i n t h i s c h a p t e r was u n d e r t a k e n a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a c o m p u t i n g c e n t r e . The f i r s t p h a s e o f t h e a n a l y s i s , i . e . , f a c t o r a n a l y s i s , was c o m p l e t e d 72 by u s i n g t h e c a n n e d p r o g r a m FACTO. I n t h e f i r s t s t e p t h i s p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e d t h e m e a n s , s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s a n d t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x f r o m t h e r a w d a t a . S e c o n d l y , t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x was u s e d f o r p r i n c i p a l c o m p o n e n t s o l u t i o n t o e l i m i n a t e t h e r e d u n d a n c i e s ( b y d e v e l o p i n g o r t h o g o n a l b a s i s ) i n 32 v a r i a b l e s . E a c h o f t h e new o r t h o g o n a l a x e s s u m m a r i z e d one p a t t e r n o f i n t e r - c o r r e l a t i o n o f t h e v a r i a b l e s . The o u t p u t o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i n c l u d e s t h e e i g e n v a l u e s , t w o m a t r i c e s o f f a c t o r l o a d i n g s - one f o r t h e p r i n c i p a l a x i s s o l u t i o n a n d t h e o t h e r f o r t h e v a r i m a x r o t a t i o n o f t h e a x e s - a n d a m a t r i x f o r f a c t o r s c o r e s , w h i c h l o c a t e s 39 c i t i e s on t h e o r t h o g o n a l f a c t o r s . I n t h e f i r s t s e t o f a n a l y s i s , e i g h t f a c t o r s w i t h e i g e n v a l u e s e q u a l t o , o r g r e a t e r t h a n , 1.0 w e r e r e t a i n e d . T h e s e f a c t o r s n o t o n l y e x p l a i n e d 83 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l v a r i a t i o n b u t a l s o s h o w e d t h a t a l l e x c e p t t w o v a r i a b l e s h a d c o m m u n a l i t i e s o f 70 p e r c e n t o r o v e r . H o w e v e r , a c l e a r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f o n l y t h e f i r s t f o u r o f t h e s e f a c t o r s was p o s s i b l e ; h i g h l o a d i n g s f r o m s e v e r a l c o n f l i c t i n g v a r i a b l e s made i t d i f f i c u l t t o i d e n t i f y t h e o t h e r s . F o r t h i s r e a s o n a s e c o n d f a c t o r a n a l y s i s was c a r r i e d o u t r e t a i n i n g o n l y t h e f i r s t f o u r f a c t o r s . The r e s u l t s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s a r e 44 TABLE 7 FACTOR LOADINGS ON 32 V A R I A B L E S AFTER VARIVAX ROTATION V a r i a b l e N o s . F a c t o r s * h 2 I I I I I I I V 1 0.79 0.68 2 0.50 0.41 3 0.63 0.71 4 -0 . 5 1 0.62 5 0.73 0.75 6 0.56 0.64 7 0.64 0.76 8 0.55 0.45 9 - 0 . 8 6 0.80 10 0.62 0.65 11 - 0 . 5 0 - 0 . 7 5 0.85 12 0.77 0.84 1 3 0.71 0.54 0.82 14 - 0 . 6 8 0.75 1 5 * * 0.19 16 0.87 0.88 17 - 0 . 7 9 0.76 18 0.80 0.73 19 0.83 0.71 2 0 * * 0.32 21 0.78 0.73 22 0.59 0.60 23 0.51 0.57 0.69 24 0.54 0.32 25 ' - 0 . 7 7 0.67 26 0.63 0.47 2 7 * * 0.38 28 0.54 0.39 29 0.68 0.63 3 0 * * 0.49 3 1 * * 0.28 32 0.76 0.64 E i g e n v a l u e s 6.79 5.56 4.10 3.19 C u m u l a t i v e P r o p o r t i o n o f 0.21 E i g e n v a l u e s 0.38 0.51 0.61 •* O n l y l o a d i n g s 5. 0.50 a r e s h o w n . * * No f a c t o r h a s l o a d i n g ^ 0 . 5 0 on t h i s v a r i a b l e . 45 shown i n A p p e n d i x B - 1 . T a b l e 7 a l s o s h o w s t h e l o a d i n g s w h i c h a r e g r e a t e r t h a n , o r e q u a l t o 0 . 5 0 , e i g e n v a l u e s , a n d t h e c o m m u n a l i t i e s o f a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s . I t i s a p p r a n t f r o m t h i s t a b l e t h a t o n l y t h i r t e e n v a r i a b l e s , c o m p a r e d t o t h i r t y i n t h e f i r s t a n a l y s i s , h a v e r e t a i n e d t h e i r c o m m u n a l i t i e s o f 70 p e r c e n t o r o v e r . The r e d u c t i o n i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l v a r i a t i o n e x p l a i n e d (61%) by t h e f o u r f a c t o r s i s a l s o n o t i c e a b l e . H o w e v e r , t h e a d v a n t a g e o f t h i s a n a l y s i s o v e r t h e f i r s t o n e i s t h a t t h e c h a n g e i n t h e l o a d i n g s t r u c t u r e s makes t h e f a c t o r s more m e a n i n g f u l . I n T a b l e 7 t h e l a r g e s t l o a d i n g s , e i t h e r p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e , s u g g e s t t h e m e a n i n g o f t h e f a c t o r o r u r b a n d i m e n s i o n s ( f o r 32 c i t i e s o f C a n a d a ) . The p o s i t i v e l o a d i n g s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e v a r i a b l e i n c r e a s e s w i t h a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e d i m e n s i o n , a n d a n e g a t i v e l o a d i n g i n d i c a t e s a d e c r e a s e i n t h e v a r i a b l e a s t h e d i m e n s i o n i n c r e a s e s . The f o u r u r b a n d i m e n s i o n s , a s d e l i n e a t e d by 32 v a r i a b l e s , a r e e x p l a i n e d a s f o l l o w s : F a c t o r I ; S o c i a l I n d e x . T h i s f a c t o r a c c o u n t s f o r 21.2 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l v a r i a n c e . I t h a s h i g h l o a d i n g s , p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e , o n t h e f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s . 4. % o f p o p u l a t i o n b e t w e e n 0-19 y r s . o f a g e ( - 0 . 5 1 ) . 7. % o f p o p u l a t i o n b e t w e e n 65 y r s . o f a g e a n d o v e r ( 0 . 6 4 ) . 8. % of p o p u l a t i o n o f B r i t i s h o r i g i n ( 0 . 5 5 ) . 9. % o f p o p u l a t i o n o f F r e n c h o r i g i n ( - 0 . 8 6 ) . 1 0 . % o f p o p u l a t i o n o f o t h e r E u r o p e a n o r i g i n ( 0 . 6 2 ) . 1 4 . A v e r a g e p e r s o n s i n e a c h h o u s e h o l d ( - 0 . 6 8 ) . 1 6 . % o f s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s ( 0 . 8 7 ) 1 7 . % o f a p a r t m e n t s ( - 0 . 7 9 ) . 1 8 . % o f home owned ( 0 . 8 0 ) . 114--2 I 4 + 2 9X A c , x 2 o -I 33A °25 14°^ + 1 e>2& 4 - 1 4-2 + 2 +3 in iv-8* a37 • l * . \ i o 25 0»'o *>22 ^ r * I5 A *I2> ©32. + 2 FIGURE 6 + -3 III FIGURE 7 X2.I -4IV -f3 LEGEND G r o u p I • G r o u p I I X G r o u p I I I o G r o u p IU A G r o u p U • G r o u p UI • G r o u p V I I • D I S T R I B U T I O N OF 39 C I T I E S ON FACTORS I & I I D I S T R I B U T I O N OF 39 C I T I E S ON FACTORS I I I & IU N o t e s : 1. See T a b l e 8 f o r g r o u p i n g d e t a i l s . 2. C i t i e s w i t h s t r o n g g r o u p i n g t e n -d e n c y a r e shown w i t h i n e l l i p s e s . 47 The f i g u r e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s show t h e amount o f l o a d i n g s . T h i s f a c t o r a p p e a r s t o r e p r e s e n t t h e s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s b e c a u s e o f t h e f a c t t h a t i t h a s h i g h l o a d i n g s on t h e v a r i a b l e s r e l a t e d t o l i f e c y c l e , e t h n i c i t y a n d f a m i l y s i z e . T h e s e s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s h a v e b e e n r e i n f o r c e d f u r t h e r by h i g h l o a d i n g s on t h e t h r e e h o u s i n g v a r i -a b l e s . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t t h e c i t i e s u i t h a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f F r e n c h p o p u l a t i o n a l s o h a v e a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f l a r g e f a m i l i e s . T h e s e c i t i e s a l s o h a v e a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f a p a r t m e n t d u e l l i n g s , u h i c h i s c o n t r a r y t o t h e g e n e r a l b e l i e f t h a t l a r g e r f a m i l i e s e n c o u r a g e s i n g l e f a m i l y 73 d u e l l i n g s . F i g u r e 6 s h o u s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f 39 c i t i e s on f a c t o r s I a n d I I , u h i c h i n d i c a t e s t h a t V a n c o u v e r , V i c t o r i a , P e n t i c t o n a n d M e d i c i n e H a t h a v e h i g h p o s i t i v e ."• 8edireer- on f a c t o r I . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , m o s t Quebec c i t i e s — M o n t r e a l , Q u e b e c , R i m o u s k i a n d V a l - D ' O r - a r e on t h e n e g a t i v e s i d e o f t h e s c a l e . I n t e r m o f t h e o r i g i n a l v a r i a b l e s , t h i s m e a n s , t h o s e u i t h h i g h p o s i t i v e l o a d i n g s a r e t h e p r o m i n e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e f o r m e r g r o u p o f c i t i e s , u h e r e a s , t h o s e u i t h h i g h n e g a t i v e l o a d i n g s a r e t h e s i g n i f i c a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e l a t e r g r o u p . F a c t o r I I ; U r b a n i z a t i o n ^ I n d e x . T h i s f a c t o r a c c o u n t s f o r 17.4 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l v a r i a t i o n . The c h a r a c t e r o f t h i s f a c t o r i s r e f l e c t e d by h i g h l o a d i n g s on t h e f o l l o u i n g v a r i a b l e s . 1. 1961 p o p u l a t i o n ( 0 . 7 9 ) . 6. % o f p o p u l a t i o n b e t w e e n 3 5 - 6 4 y r s . o f age ( 0 . 5 6 ) . 1 1 . % of f a m i l i e s e a r n i n g $ 5 , 9 9 9 o r l e s s a y e a r ( - 0 . 5 0 ) . 1 3 . % o f f a m i l i e s e a r n i n g $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 o r more a y e a r ( 0 . 7 1 ) . 1 9 . No. o f c i t i e s ( 1 0 , 0 0 0 + ) w i t h i n 100 m i l e r a d i u s ( 0 . 8 3 ) . 48 2 3 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n c l e r i c a l o c c u p a t i o n ( 0 . 5 1 ) . 2 6 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y ( 0 . 6 3 ) . The f i g u r e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s show t h e amount o f l o a d i n g s . A l l t h e v a r i a b l e s c l e a r l y show t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f u r b a n i z a t i o n , i . e . , h i g h p o p u l a t i o n c o n c e n t r a t i o n , c o n u r b a t i o n , h i g h f a m i l y i n c o m e a n d a l a r g e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e m i d d l e - a g e g r o u p . The c l e r i c a l 74 o c c u p a t i o n a n d m a n u f a c t u r i n g a c t i v i t y a r e a l s o p r e d o m i n a n t . From F i g u r e 6 i t i s n o t e d t h a t L o n d o n , M o n t r e a l , O t t a w a , T o r o n t o , V a n c o u v e r a n d V i c t o r i a h a v e h i g h p o s i t i v e ."..soores- on t h i s f a c t o r . F a c t o r I I I ; T r a d e a n d S e r v i c e F u n c t i o n s . T h i s f a c t o r a c c o u n t s f o r 12.8 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l v a r i a t i o n . H i g h l o a d i n g s o f t h i s f a c t o r a r e on t h e f o l l o w i n g e m p l o y m e n t v a r i a b l e s , 2 1 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n m a n a g e r i a l a n d p r o f e s s i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n ( 0 . 7 8 ) . 2 2 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n s a l e s o c c u p a t i o n ( 0 . 5 9 ) . 2 3 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n c l e r i c a l o c c u p a t i o n ( 0 . 5 7 ) . 2 4 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n s e r v i c e a n d r e c r e a t i o n o c c u p a t i o n ( 0 . 5 4 ) . 2 5 . "•% o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n m i n i n g i n d u s t r y ( - 0 . 7 7 ) . 2 8 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n d u s t r y ( 0 . 5 4 ) . 2 9 . % o f l a b o u r f o r c e i n w h o l e s a l e a n d r e t a i l t r a d e ( 0 . 6 8 ) . The f i g u r e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s show t h e amount o f l o a d i n g s . The a b o v e v a r i a b l e s , w h i c h h a v e p o s i t i v e l o a d i n g s , i n d i c a t e t h a t t h i s f a c t o r r e p r e s e n t s t h e t r a d e a n d s e r v i c e f u n c t i o n s o f t h e c i t i e s . T h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s s u b s t a t i a t e d by h i g h n e g a t i v e s c o r e s on t h o s e c i t i e s w h i c h a c t a s n o n - s e r v i c e c e n t r e s . T h e s e c i t i e s , s u c h a s F l i n F l o n , S u d b u r y , S a u l t S t e . M a r i e , S y d n e y - G l a c e B a y , T i m m i n s , V a i D'Or a n d W i n d s o r , ( s e e F i g u r e 7 ) a r e p r i m a r i l y e n g a g e d i n s p e c i a l i z e d a c t i v i t i e s , i . e . , r e s o u r c e 49 e x t r a c t i o n a n d i n d u s t r y . F a c t o r I V : F a m i l y I n c o m e . From t h e l o a d i n g s on t h e f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t t h i s f a c t o r r e p r e s e n t s t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f f a m i l y i n c o m e . 2 . M a l e t o f e m a l e r a t i o ( 0 . 5 0 ) . 3. % o f p o p u l a t i o n i n l a b o u r f o r c e ( 0 . 6 3 ) . 5. % o f p o p u l a t i o n b e t w e e n 2 0 - 3 4 y r s . o f a g e ( 0 . 7 3 ) . 1 1 . % df f a m i l i e s . e a r n i n g $ 5 , 9 9 9 o r l e s s a y e a r ( - 0 . 7 5 ) . 1 2 . % o f f a m i l i e s e a r n i n g b e t w e e n $ 6 , 0 0 0 & $ 9 , 9 9 9 a y e a r ( 0 . 7 7 ) . 1 3 . % o f f a m i l i e s e a r n i n g $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 o r more a y e a r ( § . 5 4 ) . 3 2 . P e r c a p i t a a n n u a l s a l e s i n s e r v i c e t r a d e s i n d o l l a r s ( 0 , 7 6 ) . The f i g u r e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s r e p r e s e n t t h e ammount o f l o a d i n g s . T h e l o a d i n g s on t h e a b o v e v a r i a b l e s e x p l a i n t h a t m o s t m i d d l e i n c o m e f a m i l i e s come f r o m t h e y o u n g e r a g e g r o u p o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e . The p r i m a r y s o u r c e o f t h e i r i n c o m e i s f r o m s e r v i c e t r a d e . H o w e v e r , i t i s a l s o n o t e d t h a t a m o d e r a t e p e r c e n t a g e o f h i g h i n c o m e f a m i l i e s a l s o f a l l w i t h i n t h i s a g e a n d t r a d e c a t e g o r y . F i g u r e 7 s h o w s t h a t C a l g a r y , E d m o n t o n , R e g i n a , K a m l o o p s , N o r t h Bay a n d P r i n c e G e o r g e h a v e h i g h p o s i t i v e s c o r e s o n t h i s f a c t o r , w h e r e a s , C h a r l o t t e t o w n , K e l o w n a , R i v i e r e — d u - L o u p , S a i n t J o h n , S t . J o h n ' s , S y d n e y - G l a c e Bay a n d V i c t o r i a a r e o n t h e l o w e r e n d o f t h e s c a l e . F r om t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x o f t h e f a c t o r s c o r e s ( s e e A p p e n d i x B—1) i s i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e f o u r f a c t o r s a r e i n d e p e n d e n t f r o m e a c h o t h e r . R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s ; M o d e l I The m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s was r u n w i t h t h e 1961 a i r p a s s e n g e r v o l u m e s f r o m 39 s a m p l e c i t i e s a s a d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . T h e s c o r e s o n t h e 50 f o u r f a c t o r s e x t r a c t e d f r o m e a r l i e r a n a l y s i s w e r e u s e d a s i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , A p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n on g r a p h p a p e r i n d i c a t e d t h a t some o f t h e f a c t o r s a r e w e l l r e l a t e d t o t h e l o g a r i t h m i c ( n o r m a l ) v a l u e s o f t h e a i r p a s s e n g e r v o l u m e s . F o r t h i s r e a s o n t h e o r i g i n a l v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e w e r e t r a n s f o r m e d t o t h e i r l o g a r i t h m v a l u e s . A n o t h e r a d v a n t a g e o f t h i s t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i s t h a t i t t e n d s t o n o r m a l i z e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f d a t a . The c o m p u t e r o u t p u t o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s p r e s e n t e d i n A p p e n d i x B - 2 , The e q u a t i n o b t a i n e d f r o m t h i s a n a l y s i s i s : M o d e l I : L o g Y = 3.63 + 1.15 x R 2 = 0.50 ( 0 . 1 9 ) ( 0 . 1 9 ) 2 Where Y r e p r e s e n t s t h e a n n u a l a i r p a s s e n g e r v o l u m e i n t h o u s a n d s a n d i s t h e s c o r e on f a c t o r I I , The f i g u r e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s s h o w t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s . M o d e l I s h o w s t h a t o n l y f a c t o r I I i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t a 5 p e r c e n t l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e , a n d i t e x p l a i n s a b o u t f i f t y p e r c e n t o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . The m o d e l e s t i m a t e s v a l u e s e i t h e r l o w e r o r h i g h e r t h a n t h e a c t u a l v o l u m e o f p a s s e n g e r s f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y h a l f o f t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s . The l o w e r e s t i m a t i o n s a r e p r o m i n e n t f o r s m a l l c i t i e s l i k e B r a n d o n , V a i D'Or, R i v i e r e - d u - L o u p , P e n t i c t o n a n d P r i n c e G e o r g e e t c . S i m i l a r l y , h i g h e s t i m a t i o n s a r e n o t e d f o r a number o f l a r g e c i t i e s , s u c h a s T o r o n t o , V i c t o r i a , O t t a w a , H a l i f a x a n d F o r t W i l l i a m - P o r t A r t h u r . T h i s c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s t h a t p e r h a p s t o o many d i s t i n c t t y p e s o f c i t i e s h a v e b e e n g r o u p e d t o g e t h e r t o e x p r e s s t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p i n a s i n g l e e q u a t i o n . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , t h e f o l l o w i n g g r o u p i n g a n a l y s i s i s d o n e t o s e g r e g a t e t h e d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f c i t i e s t h a t e x i s t w i t h i n t h e s a m p l e . 51 G r o u p i n g A n a l y s i s 75 The c a n n e d p r o g r a m CGROUP was u s e d f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s , w h i c h l o c a t e d t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n o f 39 c i t i e s i n t h e t o t a l f a c t o r s p a c e . The f o u r f a c t o r s , d e f i n e d by t h e f a c t o a n a l y s i s , f o r m e d t h e b a s i s o f t h i s s p a c e . As d i s c u s s e d i n C h a p t e r I I I , t h i s g r o u p i n g p r o c e s s i s b a s e d on t h e p r o f i l e s i m i l a r i t y o f f a c t o r s c o r e s . The o u t p u t o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s p r e s e n t e d i n A p p e n d i x B - 3 ; t h i s s h o w s t h e number o f g r o u p s , a n e r r o r i n d e x a n d a s e l e c t i o n v a l u e a t e a c h s t e p o f t h e g r o u p i n g p r o c e s s with„the.names o f t h e c i t i e s i n e a c h g r o u p . I t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t t h e e r r o r v a l u e i n c r e a s e s w i t h t h e d e c r e a s e i n t h e number o f g r o u p s . T h u s , t h e e r r o r i s z e r o when e a c h c i t y i s c o n s i d e r e d a s a n i n d e p e n d e n t g r o u p . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e e r r o r v a l u e i s 2 8 . 1 5 when a l l t h e c i t i e s a r e g r o u p e d t o g e t h e r . F i g u r e 8 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e p r o f i l e o f e r r o r i n c r e a s e w i t h a r e d u c t i o n i n t h e number o f g r o u p s . T h i s p r o f i l e s u g g e s t s t h a t a s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n e r r o r i s e n c o u n t e r e d when t h e number o f g r o u p s d e c r e a s e s f r o m s e v e n . The s e l e c t i o n c r i t e r i a , i n t h i s c a s e , i s t o r e d u c e t h e number o f g r o u p s t o a s f e w a s p o s s i b l e . T h e r e f o r e , i t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o s e l e c t t h e s e v e n g r o u p s . The r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e s e g r o u p s i s f u r t h e r e n s u r e d by t h e s e l e c t i o n v a l u e w h i c h i s e x t r e m e l y h i g h ( a n u n d e s i r a b l e f e a t u r e ) when t h e y a r e r e d u c e d t o s i x g r o u p s . The c i t i e s i n s e v e n g r o u p s , a s d e t e r m i n e d by t h i s a n a l y s i s , a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 8. T h e s e g r o u p s w i l l now be u s e d f o r f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s . The a v e r a g e s c o r e s by t h e s e g r o u p s on t h e f o u r f a c t o r s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e s 9 a n d 1 0 . T h e s e f i g u r e s t o g e t h e r w i t h F i g u r e s 6 a n d 7 e x p l a i n t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s a n d d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e s e g r o u p s . The f i r s t g r o u p h a s h i g h p o s i t i v e s c o r e s o n t h e s o c i a l i n d e x , b u t m o d e r a t e n e g a t i v e s c o r e s on t h e f a m i l y i n c o m e . H o w e v e r , i t a p p e a r s t h a t i n t h i s g r o u p f a c t o r I 30 H 25 H 20 -\ 15 H 10 H 5 H 39 35 31 27 23 19 15 II Number o f G r o u p s FIGURE 8 PROFILE OF ERROR INCREASE IN GROUPING PROCESS F A C T O R S I I I I I IU G r o u p I G r o u p I I G r o u p I I I \ ~< \ \ N h + i.o FIGURE 9 P R O F I L E OF AVERAGE FACTOR SCORES OF GROUPS I , I I , & I I I 0.0 — 1.0 -2.0 G r o u p U G r o u p I U G r o u p U l G r o u p U I I I I i l l 'V 1 \ \ h+i.o / / 0.0 I — 1 . 0 -2.0 -2.5 FIGURE 10 P R O F I L E OF AUERAGE FACTOR SCORES OF GROUPS I V , V , U I , & U I I 54 TABLE 8 SEVEN HOMOGENEOUS GROUPS OF 39 C I T I E S G r o u p I : B r a n d o n , F o r t W i l l i a m & P o r t A r t h u r , K e l o w n a , M e d i c i n e H a t , P e n t i c t o n , S y d n e y & G l a c e B a y , a n d W i n d s o r , G r o u p I I : C a l g a r y , E d m o n t o n , F r e d e r i c t o n , H a l i f a x , K a m l o o p s , L e t h b r i d g e , N o r t h B a t t l e f o r d , N o r t h B a y , P r i n c e A l b e r t , P r i n c e G e o r g e , R e g i n a , S a s k a t o o n , S w i f t C u r r e n t , a n d W i n n i p e g . G r o u p I I I : C h a r l o t t e t o w n , M o n c t o n , R i v i e r e - d u - L o u p , S a i n t J o h n , a n d S t . J o h n ' s , G r o u p I V : F l i n F l o n , S a u l t S t e . M a r i e , S u d b u r y , a n d T i m m i n s . G r o u p V: L o n d o n , T o r o n t o , V a n c o u v e r - a n d V i c t o r i a . G r o u p V I : M o n t r e a l , O t t a w a , a n d Q u e b e c . G r o u p V I I : R i m o u s k i a n d V a l D'Or. p l a y s a more i m p o r t a n t r o l e t h a n t h e o t h e r f a c t o r s ( s e e F i g u r e 6 ) . G r o u p I I h a s l o w t o medium s c o r e s on a l l t h e f a c t o r s . F i g u r e 7 s h o w s t h a t p r o b a b l y f a c t o r s I I I a n d IV i n f l u e n c e t h e s e c i t i e s more t h a n o t h e r s . T h e r e i s a l s o v e r y l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e a v e r a g e s c o r e s on t h e f i r s t t h r e e f a c t o r s b e t w e e n G r o u p I I a n d I I I . H o w e v e r , h i g h s c o r e s i n o p p o s i t e d i r e c t i o n s on f a c t o r I V e x p l a i n t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e s e t w o g r o u p s . S i m i l a r l y , G r o u p IV h a s h i g h s c o r e s on f a c t o r I I I , b u t e x t r e m e l y l o w s c o r e s on t h e o t h e r s . A g a i n , w h i l e V a n d V I h a v e s i m i l a r a v e r a g e s c o r e s o n f a c t o r s I I , I I I a n d I V , t h e y h a v e h i g h s c o r e s , b u t i n o p p o s i t e d i r e c t i o n s , on f a c t o r I . The two c i t i e s i n t h e l a s t g r o u p h a v e n e g a t i v e a v e r a g e s c o r e s on a l l t h e f a c t o r s . I t a p p e a r s f r o m F i g u r e 6 t h a t f a c t o r s I a n d I I h a v e b e e n i n f l u e n t i a l i n g r o u p i n g t h e s e c i t i e s t o g e t h e r . On t h e w h o l e , i t i s c l e a r t h a t t h e g r o u p s a r e d i s t i n c t l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m e a c h o t h e r . 55 R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s ; M o d e l I I The p r e c e d i n g a n a l y s i s h a s c l a s s i f i e d t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s i n t o s e v e n m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e g r o u p s . A l t h o u g h i t u a s t h e i n t e n t i o n t o a p p l y r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s t o a l l t h e g r o u p s , t h e i r s i z e s r e s t r i c t e d i t s u s e t o o n l y t h e f i r s t t u o . The s c o r e s o f t h e s e t u o g r o u p s on f o u r f a c t o r s u e r e u s e d a g a i n a s i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . The r e s u l t s o f t h e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n A p p e n d i c e s B-4 a n d B - 5 . F o r G r o u p I no f a c t o r i s f o u n d s i g n i f i c a n t a t a 5 p e r c e n t l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . F o r G r o u p I I , o n l y t u o f a c t o r s a r e f o u n d s i g n i f i c a n t . The e q u a t i o n s f o r t h i s g r o u p a r e : M o d e l I I : S t e p 1: L o g Y = 4.76 + 2.91 x R 2 = 0.70 ( 0 . 3 6 ) ( 0 . 5 5 T S t e p 2: L o g Y = 5.60 + 3.01 x - 1.45 x ( 0 . 4 1 ) ( 0 . 4 4 T ( 0 . 5 1 ) R 2 = 0.82 Where Y r e p r e s e n t s t h e a n n u a l a i r p a s s e n g e r v o l u m e i n t h o u s a n d s , a n d x ^ a n d x ^ r e P r e s e n t t h e s c o r e s on f a c t o r s I I a n d I I I r e s p e c t i v e l y . The f i g u r e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s s h o u t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r s o f c o e f f i c i e n t s . S t e p 2 o f t h e a b o v e m o d e l s h o u s t h a t f a c t o r s I I a n d I I I e x p l a i n a b o u t 82 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l v a r i a t i o n i n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m G r o u p I I . H o u e v e r , s t e p 1 i n d i c a t e s t h a t m o s t o f t h i s v a r i a t i o n i s a c c o u n t e d f o r by f a c t o r I I a l o n e . M o r e o v e r , s t e p 2 o f t h i s m o d e l c o n t r i b u t e s t o t h e v a l i d i t y o f s t e p 1 ( a n d a l s o o f M o d e l 1 ) , T h e l a s t m o d e l e x p l a i n s t h e f a c t t h a t u i t h a n i n c r e a s e i n u r b a n i z a t i o n , u h i c h i s r e p r e s e n t e d by f a c t o r I I , a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i n c r e a s e s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , i t i s a l s o t r u e t h a t u i t h a n i n c r e a s e i n u r b a n i z a t i o n t h e t r a d e a n d s e r v i c e f u n c t i o n f - . r e p r e s e n t e d by f a c t o r I I I , o f a n y c o m m u n i t y 56 d e c r e a s e s c o m p e r a t i v e l y . T h u s t h e c o m p l e m e n t a r y n a t u r e o f t h e s e t w o f a c t o r s i s r e v e a l e d by t h e d i r e c t i o n ( o p p o s i t e ) i n w h i c h t h e y a r e r e l a t e d t o a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n ( i n s t e p 2 o f M o d e l I I ) . 57 FOOTNOTES Dames H. B j e r r i n g , "UBC FACTO: F a c t o r A n a l y s i s " U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e , May 1 9 6 9 , ( M i m e o g r a p h e d ) . 73 F i r e s t o n e n o t e s t h a t a v e r a g e f a m i l y s i z e i n Q u ebec i s l a r g e r t h a n t h a t o f a n y o t h e r p r o v i n c e i n C a n a d a : a f a c t o r w h i c h s h o u l d h a v e n o r m a l l y e n c o u r a g e d i n b u i l d i n g s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s . B u t l o w a v e r a g e i n c o m e o f t h e s e f a m i l i e s a n d t h e i r c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n u r b a n a r e a s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n M o n t r e a l , h a v e r e s u l t e d i n b u i l d i n g a l a r g e r p e r c e n t a g e o f m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g s t h a n o f a n y o t h e r t y p e . F o r e x a m p l e , 34.7 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l d w e l l i n g s b u i l t i n Q u ebec i n 1 9 4 9 i s o f s i n g l e f a m i l y u n i t s , w h e r e a s , s i m i l a r t y p e o f u n i t s b u i l t i n a n y o t h e r p r o v i n c e , i n t h e same y e a r , i s w e l l o v e r 80 p e r c e n t . See 0 . 3 . F i r e s t o n e , R e s i d e n t i a l R e a l E s t a t e i n  C a n a d a , U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o , 1 9 5 1 . 74 Dames a n d R o b e r t Simmons n o t e t h a t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d m a n u f a c t u r i n g a c t i v i t i e s i n c r e a s e w i t h t h e p a c e o f u r b a n i z a t i o n i n C a n a d a , See Dames a n d R o b e r t S i m m o n s , U r b a n C a n a d a . The Copp C l a r k P u b l i s h i n g Company, T o r o n t o , 1 9 6 9 . U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , o p . c i t . 58 CHAPTER V CONCLUSIONS R e s e a r c h F i n d i n g s The r e s u l t s o f f a c t o r a n a l y s i s s h o u t h a t 32 o r i g i n a l m e a s u r e s o f t h e u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f 39 C a n a d i a n c i t i e s a r e h i g h l y i n t e r r e l a t e d , a n d t h a t t h e y c a n be r e p r e s e n t e d by f o u r b a s i c d i m e n s i o n s , e . g . s o c i a l i n d e x , u r b a n i z a t i o n , t r a d e a n d s e r v i c e , a n d f a m i l y i n c o m e . T h e s e d i m e n -s i o n s , h o u e v e r , e x p l a i n o n l y 6 1 . 4 p e r c e n t o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i n 32 v a r i a b l e s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e f o u r f a c t o r s s a t i s f a c t o r i l y e x p l a i n t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e C a n a d i a n c i t i e s . I n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , t h e r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s o f C a n a d a on a F r e n c h a n d n o n - F r e n c h b a s i s a r e d i s t i n g u i s h e d by t h e s o c i a l i n d e x , a n d l a r g e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s h a v e b e e n s e g r e g a t e d f r o m o t h e r a r e a s by t h e u r b a n i z a t i o n i n d e x . S i m i l a r l y , t h e t r a d e a n d s e r v i c e d i m e n s i o n s h o u s t h a t m o s t o f t h e C a n a d i a n c i t i e s c o n s i d e r e d a r e e n g a g e d i n t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s e i t h e r a s a d o m i n a n t o r s e c o n d a r y i n t e r e s t . T h i s d i m e n s i o n a l s o c l e a r l y s h o u s t h a t some C a n a d i a n c i t i e s , u h i c h a r e s o l e l y e n g a g e d i n s p e c i a l i z e d a c t i v i t i e s l i k e r e s o u r c e e x t r a c t i o n a n d i n d u s t r y ( F l i n F l o n , T i m m i n s , S u d b u r y , W i n d s o r a n d V a l D'Or, e t c . ) a r e e x t r e m e l y i n a c t i v e i n t h i s d i m e n s i o n . The l a s t d i m e n s i o n , f a m i l y i n c o m e , s h o u s t h a t t h o s e c i t i e s e n g a g e d i n t h e t r a d e a n d s e r v i c e f u n c t i o n a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a h i g h p e r -c e n t a g e o f m i d d l e i n c o m e f a m i l i e s a n d a m o d e r a t e p e r c e n t a g e o f h i g h i n c o m e f a m i l i e s . The r e s u l t s o f r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s e x p l a i n t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f ' u r b a n i z a t i o n ' a s a d e t e r m i n a n t o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . H o u e v e r , u i t h r e s p e c t t o o r i g i n a l v a r i a b l e s , M o d e l I e x p l a i n s a l o u p e r c e n t a g e o f 59 2 2 v a r i a t i o n (R ) . The r e a s o n f o r s u c h a l o w R v a l u e may be a t t r i b u t e d t o one o r a l l o f t h e f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s : 1. From t h e r e s u l t s o f f a c t o r a n a l y s i s , i t i s f e l t t h a t t h e 32 v a r i a b l e s c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y a r e n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o d e l i n e a t e a l l t h e d i m e n s i o n s o f t h e s a m p l e c i t i e s . I t may be p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e u n i d e n t i f i e d d i m e n s i o n s w o u l d h a v e c l a r i f i e d a p o r t i o n o f t h e u n e x p l a i n e d v a r i a t i o n i n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . 2. I t may a l s o be p o s s i b l e t h a t f a c t o r s o t h e r t h a n u r b a n c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s , i . e . s p e e d , s a f e t y a n d c o m f o r t , e t c . p l a y a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . 3. I t h a s b e e n a r g u e d e a r l i e r t h a t t h e a g g r e g a t i o n o f t o o many d i s s i m i l a r o b j e c t s ( i n t h i s c a s e , c i t y t y p e s ) s o m e t i m e s o b s c u r e s t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n d e p e n d e n t a n d i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , i n r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s . I t i s s t r o n g l y s u s p e c t e d t h a t t o o many d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f c i t i e s h a v e b e e n g r o u p e d t o g e t h e r i n M o d e l I w h i c h r e s u l t s i n l o w 2 R v a l u e . The l a s t o f t h e s e t h r e e p o s s i b l e f a c t o r s h a s b e e n i n v e s t i g a t e d i n d e t a i l i n t h i s s t u d y . I m p r o v e m e n t o f M o d e l I I o v e r I c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f g r o u p i n g t h e c i t i e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r s i m i l a r i t y i n c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s . H o w e v e r , a b o u t a f i f t h o f t h e t o t a l (18%) v a r i a t i o n i n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n s t i l l r e m a i n s t o be e x p l a i n e d by M o d e l I I , w h i c h may be due t o t h e f i r s t t wo f a c t o r s , i . e . t h e m i s s i n g u r b a n d i m e n s i o n s , a n d s u c h s y s t e m c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a s s p e e d , s a f e t y , a n d c o m f o r t , e t c . I n t e r m s o f t h e o r i g i n a l v a r i a b l e s , t h e ' u r b a n i z a t i o n ' f a c t o r r e p r e s e n t s a h i g h p o p u l a t i o n c o n c e n t r a t i o n , a h i g h d e g r e e o f c o n u r b a t i o n , m a n u f a c t u r i n g a n d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a c t i v i t y , a n d a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e m i d d l e - a g e g r o u p a n d h i g h - i n c o m e b r a c k e t . C o i n c i d e n t a l l y , some o f t h e v a r i a b l e s , i . e . a g e , i n c o m e , a n d m a n u f a c t u r i n g a c t i v i t y , h a v e 60 b e e n f o u n d t o be t h e d o m i n a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f New Y o r k t r a v e l l e r s ( s e e T a b l e 5 ) . H o w e v e r , t h e p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s s t r o n g l y s u g g e s t s t h a t n o t o n l y p o p u l a t i o n s i z e , b u t a l s o s o c i o - e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s , a r e i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . The g r o u p i n g a n a l y s i s h a s d i v i d e d t h e 39 c i t i e s i n t o s e v e n d i s t i n c t g r o u p s . Due t o t h e i n a d e q u a t e s i z e o f t h e g r o u p s , t h e n e x t s t e p o f a n a l y s i s , i . e . r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , was r e s t r i c t e d t o t h e f i r s t t wo g r o u p s . The a n a -l y s i s f o r t h e f i r s t g r o u p r e s u l t e d i n a s t a t i s t i c a l l y i n v a l i d e q u a t i o n . The r e s u l t s f o r t h e s e c o n d g r o u p a r e p r e s e n t e d i n M o d e l I I . I n many r e s p e c t s t h e s e c o n d m o d e l s h o w s a c o n s i d e r a b l e i m p r o v e m e n t o v e r t h e f i r s t . I n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , t h e s e c o n d m o d e l e x p l a i n s a h i g h e r p e r c e n t a g e o f v a r i a t i o n . T h i s means t h a t t h e unknown f a c t o r s n o t c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s s t u d y p l a y a l e s s i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n t h e s e c o n d m o d e l t h a n t h e y do i n t h e f i r s t . S e c o n d l y , t h e p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e u r b a n i z a t i o n f a c t o r i s f u r t h e r r e i n f o r c e d by t h e n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f t r a d e a n d s e r v i c e f u n c t i o n s t o a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n . I n c i d e n t a l l y , Dames a n d R o b e r t e x p l a i n t h a t t h e s e two f u n c t i o n s a r e i n f a c t c o m p l e m e n t a r y t o e a c h o t h e r i n 16 t h e C a n a d i a n u r b a n d o m a i n . H e n c e i t c a n be c o n c l u d e d t h a t i n t h e s e c o n d m o d e l f a c t o r I I I r e a l l y s i g n i f i e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f f a c t o r I I . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e f o r e g o i n g a n a l y s i s v a l i d a t e t h e g e n e r a l h y p o t h e s i s t h a t : " A i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m a n u b b a n a r e a i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h a t a r e a ' s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s " . I t i s a l s o e v i d e n t f r o m t h e r e s u l t s t h a t v a r i a t i o n i n a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n f r o m c o m m u n i t i e s i s n o t due t o d i f f e r e n t u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s b u t due t o v a r i a t i o n i n t h e same c h a r a c t e r i s t i c , i . e . u r b a n i z a t i o n . I m p l i c a t i o n s o f R e s e a r c h F i n d i n g s The f i n d i n g s o f t h i s r e s e a r c h a r e d e r i v e d f r o m e m p i r i c a l m o d e l s . 61 The i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e s e m o d e l s , a s d e s c r i b e d by B r i t t o n H a r r i s , i s due t o t h e i r r o l e a s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r e x p e r i m e n t i n t h e i n i t i a l s t a g e s o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f u r b a n p l a n n i n g , a n d a s a g u i d e t o e x p e r i m e n t a t a l a t e r 77 s t a g e . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s s h o u l d be v i e w e d n o t a s a n e n d i n t h e m s e l v e s b u t a s s u g g e s t e d c o u r s e s o f a c t i o n f o r f u r t h e r e x p e r i m e n t i n t h e t o t a l p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . W i t h t h i s i n m i n d , t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s a r e a s f o l l o w s : 1. The r e s u l t s o f t h i s s t u d y s u b s t a n t i a t e t h e g e n e r a l a r g u m e n t t h a t p o p u l a t i o n s i z e a l o n e i s n o t a s u f f i c i e n t m e a s u r e f o r t h e i n t e r a c t i o n b e t w e e n c o m m u n i t i e s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e u s e o f t h e g r a v i t y m o d e l i n d e v e l o p i n g e q u a t i o n s e i t h e r f o r a i r t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n o r f o r a i r t r i p g e n e r a t i o n s h o u l d be e x -p a n d e d b e y o n d t h e p o p u l a t i o n s i z e . 2. A number o f e q u a t i o n s f o r a i r t r i p g e n e r a t i o n h a v e b e e n d e v e l o p e d i n t h e p a s t by u s i n g t h e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e . I n t h e s e e q u a t i o n s t h e b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n i s t h a t e a c h o r i g i n a l u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c i n f l u e n c e s a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n i n d e p e n d e n t l y . The f i n d i n g s o f t h e p r e s e n t s t u d y s u g g e s t t h a t t h e r e a r e no v a l i d g r o u n d s f o r s u c h a n a s s u m p t i o n . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e s e u r b a n m e a s u r e s , when r e l a t e d t o e a c h o t h e r , r e p r e s e n t a f e w b a s i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e p o p u l a t i o n s i z e a n d t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f h i g h i n c o m e f a m i l i e s r e p r e s e n t t h e same b a s i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f ' u r b a n i -z a t i o n 1 . H e n c e , t h e y c a n n o t be c o n s i d e r e d a s i n d e p e n d e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 78 a s t h e y h a v e b e e n i n s e v e r a l p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s . The p r e s e n t s t u d y i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s e s h o r t c o m i n g s c a n be a v o i d e d by a v a i l a b l e t e c h n i q u e s o f a n a l y s i s . 3. Some t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s t u d i e s s u g g e s t t h a t i n t e r c i t y t r i p - p r e d i c t i o n e q u a t i o n s d e v e l o p e d on t h e b a s i s o f c i t y t y p e s a r e more d e p e n d a b l e t h a n a 79 s i n g l e e q u a t i o n f o r a l l t y p e s t a k e n t o g e t h e r . I n t h e s e s t u d i e s c i t i e s a r e c l a s s i f i e d on t h e b a s i s o f e i t h e r o n e o r two v a r i a b l e s . Ahmed n o t e s t h a t t h i s m e t h o d o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n n e g l e c t s a h u g e mass o f d a t a p e r t a i n i n g t o d i f f e r e n t 62 80 a s p e c t s o f c i t y s t r u c t u r e a n d l i f e . I n t h e l i g h t o f t h e m e t h o d o f a n a l y s i s a d o p t e d i n t h i s s t u d y , i t i s c l e a r t h a t a v a i l a b l e t e c h n i q u e s o f a n a l y s i s c a n a l s o be u s e d s u c c e s s f u l l y t o c l a s s i f y t h e c i t i e s on t h e b a s i s o f a l a r g e mass o f d a t a . Recommended A d d i t i o n a l R e s e a r c h T h i s s t u d y h a s s e r v e d t o p r o v i d e a f o u n d a t i o n f o r i d e n t i f y i n g t h e b a s i c r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r -a t i o n . B e c a u s e o f t h e v a s t n e s s o f s u c h a f i e l d o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n , a d d i t i o n a l r e s e a r c h i s n e c e s s a r y t o f a l l o w up a n d r e f i n e t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s r e s e a r c h . T h o s e a r e a s r e q u i r i n g f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g : 1. F o r e g o i n g a n a l y s i s s u g g e s t s t h e n e e d f o r more d a t a i n b o t h t h e v a r i a b l e s a n d t h e c i t y s a m p l e . The l a c k o f s u f f i c i e n t v a r i a b l e s h a s r e s u l t e d i n some i m p e r f e c t i o n s i n t h e r e s u l t s . I t i s f e l t t h a t i n t h i s s t u d y some v a r i a b l e s h a v e b e e n o m i t t e d w h i c h w o u l d h a v e e i t h e r i d e n t i f i e d some m i s s i n g f a c t o r s o r r e i n f o r c e d t h e f o u r f a c t o r s i n o r d e r t o e x p l a i n a l a r g e r p e r -c e n t a g e o f v a r i a t i o n . S i m i l a r l y , a n i n - d e p t h s t u d y o f a l l t h e g r o u p s was n o t p o s s i b l e due t o t h e i n a d e q u a c y o f t h e i r s i z e . 2. The amm o f t h i s s t u d y h a s b e e n t o r e l a t e u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o t h e t o t a l a i r p a s s e n g e r v o l u m e . I t i s , h o w e v e r , a p p a r e n t t h a t i n s a m p l e c i t i e s a n i n c r e a s e i n a i r p a s s e n g e r v o l u m e s d o e s n o t c o i n c i d e w e l l w i t h t h e p e r c a p i t a r a t e o f g e n e r a t i o n : f r o m F i g u r e 5 a n d T a b l e 6 i t i s n o t e d t h a t c i t i e s w h i c h g e n e r a t e t h e h i g h e s t a m o unt o f a i r p a s s e n g e r s g e n e r a l l y h a v e t h e l o w e s t p e r c a p i t a r a t e . T h e r e f o r e , f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s a r e r e q u i r e d t o r e l a t e t h e r a t e o f a i r p a s s e n g e r g e n e r a t i o n t o u r b a n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n w i l l a d d c o n s i d e r a b l y t o t h e b o d y o f k n o w l e d g e on i n t e r c i t y a i r t r a v e l b e h a v i o r . FOOTNOTES J a m e s a n d R o b e r t S i m m o n s , o p . c i t . 77 B r i t t o n H a r r i s , " P l a n o r P r o j e c t i o n : An E x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e u s e o f M o d e l s i n P l a n n i n g " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s , N o v e m b e r 1 9 6 0 , p p . 2 6 5 - 2 7 2 . 78 S e e C h a p t e r I I o f t h i s t h e s i s . 79 V o g t , I v e r s a n d A s s o c i a t e s , o p . c i t . , p . 2 2 . Q a z i Ahmed, I n d i a n C i t i e s : C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s & C o r r e l a t e s , The U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , R e s e a r c h P a p e r No. 1 0 2 , 1 9 6 5 , p. 1 6 . 64 BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. P e r i o d i c a l s a n d U n p u b l i s h e d M a t e r i a l s B a r t o n , G e o r g e W. " G r o u n d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , A i r p o r t s , a n d R e l a t e d L a n d U s e " , P l a n n i n g 1 9 7 0 . A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , 1 9 7 0 , 1 6 0 - 1 6 6 . B e l m o n t , D.M. "A P a t t e r n o f I n t e r s t a t i o n A i r l i n e T r a f f i c " , T r a n s a c t i o n s ;  A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r s , V o l . 1 1 2 , 1 9 5 7 , 8 6 4 - 8 7 1 . . "A S t u d y o f A i r l i n e I n t e r s t a t i o n T r a f f i c " , J o u r n a l o f A i r Law a n d Commerce. V o l . 2 5 , Summer 1 9 5 8 , 3 6 1 - 3 6 8 . B j e r r i n g , Dames H. "UBC FACTO: F a c t o r A n a l y s i s " , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a : C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e , May 1 9 6 9 , ( M i m e o g r a p h e d ) . C a r r o t h e r s , G.A.P. "A H i s t o r i c a l R e v i e w o f G r a v i t y a n d P o t e n t i a l C o n c e p t s o f Human I n t e r a c t i o n " , D o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s . V o l . 2 2 , 1 9 5 6 , 9 4 - 1 0 2 . C h a n , S h e u n g - L i n g . " M u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y i n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n M o d e l s " , U n p u b l i s h e d M.A. T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1 9 7 0 . D o g a n i s , R i g a s . " T r a f f i c F o r e c a s t i n g a n d t h e ' G r a v i t y M o d e l ' " , F l i g h t  I n t e r n a t i o n a l . 2 9 t h S e p t e m b e r 1 9 4 1 , 5 4 7 - 5 4 9 . E d w a r d s , G o r d o n . "Dumbo D e t s a n d t h e E m e r g i n g A i r p o r t C i t y " , P l a n n i n g  1 9 6 7 , A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , 1 9 6 7 , 2 4 0 - 2 4 6 . F i s h e r , L e i g h . " A i r p o r t s A t t r a c t s I n d u s t r y " , U r b a n L a n d , V o l . 2 1 , No. 9, O c t o b e r 1 9 6 2 , 3-6. F o s t e r , J o s e p h A. " I m p a c t o f t h e Jumbo J e t on C o m m u n i t y P l a n n i n g " . P l a n n i n g  1 9 6 7 . A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , 1 9 6 7 , 2 4 6 - 2 5 2 . . "The A i r p o r t : A C o m m u n i t y A s s e t " , The A p p r a i s a l J o u r n a l . O c t o b e r 1 9 6 9 , 5 4 3 - 5 5 4 . Gamey, R o n a l d K e n n e t h . " L o n g Range F o r e c a s t i n g o f D o m e s t i c a n d I n t e r n a t i o n a l B o a r d i n g P a s s e n g e r s a t C a n a d i a n A i r p o r t s by M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s " , U n p u b l i s h e d M.B.A. T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1 9 6 9 . Hammer, C , a n d F.C. I k l e . " I n t e r c i t y T e l e p h o n e a n d A i r l i n e T r a f f i c R e l a t e d t o D i s t a n c e a n d t h e ' P r o p e n s i t y t o I n t e r a c t ' " , S o c i o m e t r y , V o l . 2 0 , 1 9 5 7 , 3 0 6 - 3 1 6 . 65 H a r r i s , B r i t o n . " P l a n n i n g o r P r o j e c t i o n : An E x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e Use o f M o d e l s i n P l a n n i n g " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s . N o vember 1 9 6 0 , 2 6 5 - 2 7 2 . . "New T o o l s f o r P l a n n i n g " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e o f P l a n n e r s . May 1 9 6 5 , 9 0 - 9 4 . H a r r i s , C h a u n c y D. "A F u n c t i o n a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f C i t i e s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " , G e o g r a p h i c a l R e v i e w . U o l . 3 3 , No. 1, J a n u a r y 1 9 4 3 , 8 6 - 9 9 . H a r v e y , D ' A r c y . " A i r l i n e P a s s e n g e r T r a f f i c P a t t e r n w i t h i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " , J o u r n a l o f A i r Law a n d Commerce, U o l . 1 8 , 1 9 5 1 , 1 5 7 - 1 6 5 . I k l e , F r e d C h a r l s . " S o c i o l o g i c a l R e l a t i o n s h i p o f T r a f f i c t o P o p u l a t i o n a n d D i s t a n c e " , T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y . U o l . 8, 1 9 5 4 , 1 3 2 - 1 3 6 . J o h n s o n , Norman L. " F o r e c a s t i n g A i r p o r t T r a f f i c " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A e r o - S p a c e T r a n s p o r t D i v i s i o n . P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r s , U o l . 9 0 , No. A T 2 , O c t o b e r 1 9 6 4 , 1 8 1 - 1 9 5 . K i n g , L e s l i e J . " C r o s s - S e c t i o n a l A n a l y s i s o f C a n a d i a n U r b a n D i m e n s i o n : 1 9 5 1 - 1 9 6 1 " , C a n a d i a n G e o g r a p h e r . U o l . 1 0 , No. 4, 1 9 6 6 , 2 0 5 - 2 2 4 . L a n s i n g , J . B . , a n d D . M . B l o o d . "A C r o s s - S e c t i o n a l A n a l y s i s o f N o n - B u s i n e s s A i r T r a v e l " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n . D e c e m b e r 1 9 5 8 , 9 2 8 - 9 4 7 . , J . L i u a n d D . B . ' S u i t s . "An A n a l y s i s o f A i r T r a v e l " , Q u a r t e r l y J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s . U o l . 7 5 , F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 1 , 8 7 - 9 5 . L e e , F.B. "How CAA F o r e c a s t s A i r T r a f f i c P o t e n t i a l " , S o c i e t y o f  A u t o m o t i v e E n g i n e e r s : J o u r n a l . U o l . L I X , A p r i l 1 9 5 1 , 4 4 - 4 5 . L e i g h , F i s h e r . " A i r p o r t a n d C i t y P l a n n i n g " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A i r T r a n s p o r t D i v i s i o n : P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e A 5 C E , U o l . 8 2 , No. A T 3 , N ovember 1 9 5 6 , 1-7. L e u n g , H o w - Y i n . " C o m p e r a t i v e A p p r o a c h t o P l a n n i n g - A M o d e l f o r CBD F l o o r S p a c e P r e d i c t i o n " , U n p u b l i s h e d M.Sc. T h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1 9 7 0 . L o n g , W e s l e y H. " C i t y C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d t h e Demand f o r I n t e r u r b a n A i r T r a v e l " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s , U o l . X L I U , No. 2, May 1 9 6 8 , 1 9 7 - 2 0 4 . L u k e n s , M a t h i a s E. " M a k i n g A i r p o r t s E n v i r o n m e n t a l A s s e t s " , P l a n n i n g 1 9 7 0 . A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i n g O f f i c i a l s , 1 9 7 0 , 1 5 6 - 1 6 0 . M a r c o u , G e o r g e T. "A S u r v e y o f t h e L i t e r a t u r e on I n t e r - C o m m u n i t y T r a f f i c " , H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h B o a r d : B u l l e t i n No. 3 4 7 . 1 9 6 2 , 3 0 2 - 3 1 8 . M a x w e l l , J.W, "The F u n c t i o n a l S t r u c t u r e o f C a n a d i a n C i t i e s : A C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f C i t i e s " , G e o g r a p h i c a l B u l l a t i n . U o l . 7, No. 2, 1 9 6 5 , 7 9 - 1 0 4 . 66 M a y e r , H a r o l d 1*1. " M a k i n g a L i v i n g i n C i t i e s : The U r b a n E c o n o m i c B a s e " , J o u r n a l o f G e o g r a p h y , F e b r u a r y 1 9 6 9 , 7 0 - 8 7 , M a y h i l l , G.R. "A C r i t i q u e o f t h e CAA S t u d i e s on t h e A i r T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " , J o u r n a l o f A i r Law a n d Commerce, V o l . 2 0 , 1 9 5 3 , 1 5 8 - 1 7 7 . M c C a r t h y , G e r a l d M. " M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s o f H o u s e h o l d T r i p G e n e r a t i o n - A C r i t i q u e " , H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h R e c o r d . No. 2 7 9 , 3 1 - 4 3 . M i l l e r , R.E. " F o r e c a s t i n g A i r T r a f f i c " , J o u r n a l o f t h e A e r o - S p a c e T r a n s p o r t D i v i s i o n : P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e A S C E , O c t o b e r 1 9 6 4 , 1 8 1 - 1 9 5 . R i c h m o n d , S a m u e l B. " F o r e c a s t i n g A i r P a s s e n g e r T r a f f i c by M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s " , J o u r n a l o f A i r Law a n d Commerce, V o l . 2 2 , 1 9 5 5 , 4 3 4 - 4 4 4 . . " I n t e r s p a t i a l R e l a t i o n s h i p A f f e c t i n g A i r T r a v e l " , L a n d E c o n o m i c s V o l . 3 3 , F e b r u a r y 1 9 5 7 , 6 5 - 7 3 . Rummel, R . J . " U n d e r s t a n d i n g F a c t o r A n a l y s i s " , J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t  R e s o l u t i o n . V o l . X I , No. 4, D e c e m b e r 1 9 6 7 , 4 4 4 - 4 8 0 , S c h a r y , P h i l l i p s , , a n d R o b e r t M. W i l l i a m s . " A i r l i n e F a r e P o l i c y a n d P u b l i c I n v e s t m e n t " , T r a n s p o r t a t i o n J o u r n a l . V o l . 7, F a l l 1 9 6 7 , 4 1 - 4 9 . S c o t t , J o h n T , , J r . " F a c t o r A n a l y s i s a n d R e g r e s s i o n " , E c o n o m e t r i c a , V o l . 34 No. 3, J u l y 1 9 6 6 , 5 5 2 - 5 6 2 . S t e w a r t , J.Q. "An I n v e r s e D i s t a n c e V a r i a t i o n f o r C e r t a i n S o c i a l I n f l u e n c e s S c i e n c e , V o l . 6 3 : 2 4 0 4 , J a n u a r y 1 9 4 1 , 89-90.. T a a f f . e , E d w a r d J . " T r e n d i n A i r l i n e P a s s e n g e r T r a f f i c : A G e o g r a p h i c C a s e S t u d y " , A n n a l s : A s s o c i a t i o n o f A m e r i c a n G e o g r a p h e r s , V o l . 4 9 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 5 9 , 3 9 3 - 4 0 8 . . " A i r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d U n i t e d S t a t e s U r b a n D i s t r i b u t i o n " , The G e o g r a p h i c a l R e v i e w . A p r i l 1 9 5 6 , 2 1 9 - 2 3 8 , . "The U r b a n H i e r a r c h y : An A i r P a s s e n g e r D e f i n i t i o n " , E c o n o m i c G e o g r a p h y . V o l . 3 8 , 1 9 6 2 , 1-14. U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e , "UBC - CGR0UP", November 1 9 7 1 , ( M i m e o g r a p h e d ) . W a r d , J o e H . , J r . " H i e r a r c h i c a l G r o u p i n g t o O p t i m i z e a n O b j e c t i v e F u n c t i o n " J o u r n a l o f t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , V o l , 5 8 , M a r c h 1 9 6 3 , 2 3 6 - 2 4 4 , W i l s o n , A.G. " M o d e l i n U r b a n P l a n n i n g : A S y n o p t i c R e v i e w o f R e c e n t L i t e r a t u r e " , U r b a n S t u d i e s . V o l . 5, No. 3, November 1 9 6 8 , 2 4 9 - 2 7 6 . 67 Wong, S.T. "A M u t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s o f U r b a n T r a v e l B e h a v i o r i n C h i c a g o " , T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h , V o l . 3, 1 9 6 9 , 3 4 5 - 3 6 3 . 2 . B o o k s Ahmed, Q u a z i . I n d i a n C i t i e s ; C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d C o r r e l a t e s . The U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o , D e p a r t m e n t o f G e o g r a p h y , R e s e a r c h P a p e r No. 1 0 2 , 1 9 6 5 . B a k e r , R o b e r t F., a n d R a y n o l d M. W i l m o t t e . T e c h n o l o g y a n d D e c i s i o n i n  A i r p o r t A c c e s s . A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r s , 1 9 7 0 . B l a l o c k , H u b e r t M. S o c i a l S t a t i s t i c s . M c G r a w - H i l l Book C o . , 1 9 6 0 . C o m i c k , T.F., a n d W.M. W a l l a c e . F o r e c a s t o f U n i t e d S t a t e s D o m e s t i c A i r l i n e  T r a f f i c 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 5 . M a r k e t R e s e a r c h a n d P l a n n i n g D i v i s i o n , B o e i n g Company, W a s h i n g t o n , 1 9 6 7 . E z e k i e l , M o r d e c a i . , a n d K a r l A. F o x . M e t h o d o f C o r r e l a t i o n a n d R e g r e s s i o n  A n a l y s i s ; L i n e a r a n d C u r v i l i n e a r . 3 r d e d , , Dohn W i l e y a n d S o n s , I n c . , New Y o r k , 1 9 5 9 , F i r e s t o n e , 0 . 0 , R e s i d e n t i a l R e a l E s t a t e i n C a n a d a , U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o , 1 9 5 1 . I s a r d , W. M e t h o d o f R e g i o n a l A n a l y s i s : An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e . M.I.T. P r e s s , 1 9 6 0 . L a n s i n g , 3.B. The T r a v e l M a r k e t 1 9 6 4 - 1 9 6 5 , S u r v e y R e s e a r c h C e n t r e , I n s t i t u t e o f S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n , Ann A r b o r , 1 9 6 5 , L a w l e y a n d M a x w e l l , F a c t o r A n a l y s i s a s a S t a t i s t i c a l M e t h o d , B u t t e r w o r t h , L o n d o n , 1 9 6 3 . P e t e r s o n , Dohn E. A i r p o r t s f o r g e t s . The A m e r i c a n S o c i e t y o f P l a n n i m g O f f i c i l s , 1 9 5 9 . Rummel. R.3. A p p l i e d F a c t o r A n a l y s i s . N o r t h West U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , E v a n s t o n , 1 9 7 0 , S c h r i e v e r , B e r n a r d A,, a n d W i l l i a m W. S e i f e r t . A i r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 1 975 a n d B e y o n d ; A S y s t e m s A p p r o a c h , The M.I.T. P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . , 1 9 6 8 . S i m m o n s , Dames a n d R o b e r t . U r b a n C a n a d a . The Copp C l a r k P u b l i s h i n g Company, T o r o n t o , 1 9 6 9 . The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y , A v i a t i o n D e p a r t m e n t , F o r e c a s t a n d A n a l y s i s D i v i s i o n . New Y o r k ' s A i r T r a v e l l e r s . The Eno F o u n d a t i o n f o r H i g h w a y T r a f f i c C o n t r o l , S a u g a t u c k , C o n n e c t i c u t , 1 9 5 6 . 68 . A i r T r a v e l ' F o r e c a s t i n g : 1 9 6 5 - 1 9 7 5 . The Eno F o u n d a t i o n f o r H i g h w a y T r a f f i c C o n t r o l , S a u g a t u c k , C o n n e c t i c u t , J a n u a r y 1 9 5 7 . U.S. D e p a r t m e n t o f Commerce. E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r o f C o m m u n i t i e s . C i v i l A e r o n a u t i c s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , N ovember 1 9 4 8 . • . C o m m u n i t y S i z e a n d E c o n o m i c C h a r a c t e r . C i v i l A e r o n a u t i c s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , D u l y 1 9 5 3 . U.S. F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n A g e n c y . A i r T r a f f i c P a t t e r n a n d C o m m u n i t y  C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 1 9 6 3 . U o g t , I v e r s a n d A s s o c i a t e s , S o c i a l a n d E c o n o m i c F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g  I n t e r c i t y T r a v e l . N a t i o n a l C o o p e r a t i v e H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m R e p o r t 7 0 , H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h B o a r d , 1 9 6 9 . 3. D a t a S o u r c e A i r T r a n s p o r t B o a r d . O r i g i n a n d D e s t i n a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s ; M a i n l i n e R e v e n u e  P a s s e n g e r D o m e s t i c S u r v e y : 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 6 1 . P r e p a r e d by t h e S t a t i s t i c s S e c t i o n , D e p a r t m e n t o f T r a n s p o r t , on b e h a l f o f A i r T r a n s p o r t B o a r d , O t t a w a , C a n a d a , N o v e m b e r 1 9 6 2 . A t l a s o f C a n a d a . D e p a r t m e n t o f M i n e s a n d T e c h n i c a l S u r v e y s , G e o g r a p h i c a l B r a n c h , O t t a w a , 1 9 5 7 . D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s , 1961 C e n s u s o f C a n a d a . U o l . 1, 2, 3, 4 & 6, O t t a w a . 69 APPENDIX A TABLE 9 NATIONAL TREND OF U.S. BUS I N E S S A I R TRAVEL PROFESS 1QXAL T R C K H : C A I . KUlAOroiAl., PROPHIKTOR SAJJ3 C L E R I C A L , LABOR TAX*'. 0WS2R.1, X A U H i - R S , AKG T O B I J C N TOTAL ftXVPATlOR 1950 1955 1965 1975 1950 1955 1965 1975 1950 1955 1965 1975 1950 1955 1965 19 75 1950 1955 1965 1975 19'.o 1955 1-.-65 1975 K1XIXG UrwW $3,000 43,000 - 15,999 Jo,000 - $),W9 0"«r 110,000 2-3 2-3 5-1 6.0 16.9 21.0 30.7 1.2.0 6 .1 1-5 30.1 10 .0 7 .0 30.0 1 1 5 15.0 6 1 . 8 11 .8 30.0 117 .6 . - _- - : ] : : 6.1 6.8 32.7 10 .0 12 .1 36.O 11-5 31-9 85 -3 11.3 60.7 153 .6 WUtUTACTUniKG Un.A*r $3,000 13,000 - !5,y>9 $6,000 - 49,999 Over $10,000 33 .0 166.1 73 .8 22 .5 17 .3 151..2 226.5 266 .0 678.5 11*37.0 27 .0 355-2 916.3 3518-0 72.5 1028.1 126.0 1309.0 36 .1 113.V 2>0.2 1*073.1. 30.5 111.6 321.1 9 3 3 1 . 2 99.8 35-3 120.0 112 .0 9 2 . 7 11-9-5 11.7.0 166.1 607.6 216.0 3'.-5.7 2171.0 : 61.2 327.1* 181 .6 1170 .6 13 . 6 368.0 1 1 5 . 2 1 7 2 1 . 5 67 -1 6 1 2 . 0 1095-1 6118 . 0 57 .5 715 .3 I656 .I 15350 .2 ! Under 43,000 $3,000 - (5,999 46,000 - $9,959 Over $ 10,000 U3.2 10.6 7-1 1.2.9 37 .1 36.1 liS .2 63 . I 1 3 1 . ' 3 7 . 2 90 .7 3 1 5 2 1 6 . 1 72 .6 150 55.0 273- 1* 192-0 16 .7 313-9 366.O 1.6.5 1*00.0 803 .1 - - - - • - - - - - 89.6 83.2 22.1 97 9 310.5 2}9.1 91.9 377-0 500 .1 83.7 570.7 1113.6 a B'JSIKTT^ 3FKVICE Under 43,000 $3,000 - $5,999 $ A , U O O - 19,999 over $-10,0.* 7-0 21.9 50 .3 &.2 73-5 100.0 li'.S J15--0 tV .6 .0 2 0 . 2 m i . 2 9-5 7.5 18.0 9-5 11.0 3I1.O 18.0 20 .5 78.0 26.5 1*1* .0 l f o . o \ ] \ \ I6.5 37.1* 38-3 15.7 0 7 . 5 112.0 3C.8 J U . 3 711.0 16.7 1-.M.2 HIGH TIUVLT, U n X ' S T n l r i - " • - - - - - • - - 723.3 9 7 5 - 3 I t M o . B 3 i *9 . 7 • • - 721 . 3 975 . 3 '.>Vr0.8 J.-J.9.7 COBSTHUCTIOlt Under $3,000 $3,CCO - *5,99<i $6,COO - $9,999 Over 410,000 51 .8 8.1 3-0 79.0 22 .0 • 7 .0 120.0 5-?.5 l o . 6 110.0 9 3 . 6 106.8 2-3 19.9 5.3 36 .9 9-9 120.0 15.5 2 ,'1.6 ; \ - - 51.8 10 .7 22.9 79.0 2 7 . 3 13 .9 12O.0 t i l . 7 160 .6 110 . 0 109 .1 331.1 l RETAIL Under 43,000 43,COO - 45,999 46,COO - 49,999 Over 410,000 28 .5 l»5-0 95-0 109.0 231.0 570.0 516.0 1156.6 1.5.2 50 .8 H 5 - 5 7 3 . 1 150 .3 508.0 89.3 236.6 1339-5 105-3 359-0 3001*. 0 2 1 . 8 1*0.3 6.8 61*.7 360-3 59-6 92.7 829.1. 233-3 9 7 - 3 531.2 - : : 70 . 0 119-6 197-3 137-8 61 3-6 6 7 5 - 6 162 .0 12A>.0 2112 . 3 202 .6 2073-1 5106.8 FERLWSAL Under 43.000 53,COO - ?5,999 $6,000 - i ? ,999 Over $10,000 •9 1.9 • 9 7.1 7 .0 13-9 16.0 6.0 1.6 2 .1 8.9 1 . 7 2 . 6 13-5 11-9 8 . 3 16.0 23-7 22 .0 ; ; \ \ - - - - - • • - 6.0 2-5 2.5 8 .9 6.6 3-5 1 3 5 19-3 15.S 16.0 37 .6 10.c 1 n s w r . , FFJU. ESTATE Under $3,000 $3 ,000 - 45,999 $6,DOG - 19,999 Over $10,000 l . l 3-0 1.8 5.0 13-2 9-0 13.8 51.6 76 .5 12 .3 6 7 . 1 1S1 .7 9-9 10 .2 2 0 . 3 10.6 28 .0 78.0 10.2 35.6 173.2 11.2 1*1.7 376.3 25.8 8 . 1 3-3 29-2 32.2 12 .5 33-9 52 .6 1.3-7 37-2 7 2 . 6 106.5 \ \ ] '• 39.8 21.6 2 5 . 1 1 1 . 8 73-t 99-5 57 .9 1 1 2 . 8 203.1 6 1 . 2 181.1 665-C S E T V I C E U n i e r $3,000 43,000 - $5,999 46,000 - $9,999 Over 410,000 16U.7 1.9.3 7 8 . 1 2C0.1 31.1.7 393-3 258 .0 5-2.3 1103.9 21.0.0 •79-5 2 6 6 3 . 2 8.0 5-3 12. 1 10.0 11.6 52-5 1 9 . 8 3.1.5 201 .1 2 2 5 50 .0 397.5 ; ; - - '-172 .7 5 5 1 90.3 290 .1 353-3 115.8 2 7 7 . 8 5 7 5 . 8 ' 1365.3 t - 1 . 5 3035-7 >icrjM T w v i x m a - C T R i - - - - - • - - 221.1 3 - 3 3 623.2 IC13.0 - - - - 221.1 3 M . 3 6 2 3 . 2 1013 .0 A^UCULTLnE, KlSFiTWf, R r . H U * C 26.0 1*5.1. 110.9 125.6 - - ' - • - - - - 3'..1 61*.2 129.1* 226.1 62.1 109.6 210 .3 352.2 Tii*J*."Kj'r;ATION, ZOt+fl.'MiCA'iIOBS, i / r i L J T i r s 25 .0 37.7 7 8 . 1 116 .9 21 . 3 2 7 . 8 1*1.9 7 0 . 1 - - - - - - - - - 4 16. 3 6 5 . 5 120 .0 139-3 REPAIR SERVICE A W S f M ^ T , RECREATICJI - - - - - -P R D C D K , PWtl . ISHIIC 23.1 26.6 1.5.5 E C . 2 l l . o 17-5 31 .2 1*9.5 - - - - - - - - - - 37 .1 11 . 1 79 . 7 129.7 LO'J TRAVEL I-fPUSTRlES • - - - - - - - - 57-7 69.2 110.2 161.. 7 - - - - 57 .7 6 9 - 2 110 .2 161 .7 CJUKD TOTAL (Survey Population) J26.5 •AW-3 7191-7 13388.8 1775-3 31C8.8 7798.8 16SC6.9 361 .3 920-7 2206 .6 50O9-9 1O02 .0 1388.3 £611*.2 1*232.1 36.1 61*.2 129.1* 226.1 1101.1 8 0 3 9 . 3 1 9 9 « 1 . 7 39761.1 S o u r c e : The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y , A v i a t i o n D e p a r t m e n t , F o r e c a s t a n d A n a l y s i s D i v i s i o n , A i r T r a v e l F o r e c a s t i n g : 1 9 6 5 - 1 9 7 5 . The E no F o u n d a t i o n f o r H i g h w a y T r a f f i c C o n t r o l , S a u g a t u c k , 1 9 5 7 . o TABLE 10 NATIONAL TREND OF U.S. PERSONAL A I R TRAVEL PROnr-SICHAL, TECHNICAL, KANACPJIIAL AND PROPRIETOR CLERICAL, PA11S, LABOR i i o u s E w r v c : ; , i r n m w r s , U N i ^ j L o Y E D PARM: <m}?Z, MA1UCLNS 1 AND FORUtfJi RLTIRED TOTAL OCCUPATIOrt Aft* L lucat loo Ycer I M e r $3.COO IJC $3,oco. 15, m WE $£,000-$9,999 Over $10,000 E ' C Under , $3,000-$3 , 020 $5,999 $6,000-$9,99? Over J-10,COC IWer $3,000 IN: 1 $3,000-55,999 36,000. (9,999 Over $10,OCO UMrr • $1,000 INC 53,000 $5,999 VZ ;6,ooo-$9,999 Over $10,000 Under $3,000 LNCC "$3 ,cx». $5,9-99 S*S $6,000-$9,999 Over $10,000 Uiiler 13. COO $3,000-$5,999 cm $6,000-S;,?;J Over $10,0*0 G7AXD TOTAL CO Hoo-Slgh GreduAtea 1950 1555 1505 1975 W.l 2.1 1.5 5-5 2.! 5.6 10.3 11.6 0.5 2.6 7.6 11.7 7.3 16.5 156.I 96.1, 137-1 163.3 50.1 187.2 1I.5.6 i.07.1 1-9 50.1 159-8 353-6 0.6 6.1 35-6 109.6 81.3 10.6 69.1 33-5 2 .2 132.2 256.9 277 2 0.1 6.6 21.8 39-3 0.3 3T-1 183.1 123-8 \ 7-5 10.8 11.9 38.6 0-3 C l 0.6 0.8 • \ \ -" 2'-1.7 139 A 210.8 252-3 622 335-6 651.3 731-5 2.6 59.7 1S9.8 k«.3 0.9 13-5 226.0 519-9 307.6 578.3 1,281-3 1,9^.0 Hie* School Graduatei 1950 1=55 1965 1975 60 . 7 11 .1 U l.2 192-5 50.5 K6.0 1C5-0 226.3 5.1" 25.6 71*.0 123-6 2.3 16.6 50.5 125.1 66.0 55-9 163.0 2-7.8 20.8 101.: 311--9 175-3 1.1 57.6 D89.I 772.9 1-7 16.9 121.0 117.0 3s--2 27-1 65.8 95 -8 0.8 31.1 127-5 0.1 35-5 103.0 196-9 28.8 187-3 617.5 \ 0.1 0.0 3-8 1.5 • \ '. 161.9 L27.5 3I8.O 196.2 72.5 212.1 598.0 633-5 7.1 1:8.7 166.1 1,093.1 1.0 62.5 361.7 1,189.6 218.5 5 5 1 0 1,773-8 3,612.6 Hoo-P.ltr^ . School Qrf*luJ.tei 1950 1955 1965 1975 n-7 6-3 5-1 1.7 33-9 33.6 31.7 33-1 18 .e 55-1 61.0 118.6 25.8 66.8 116.7 266.6 135-5 55-3 1.0.0 31-3 11.7-2 263.1. 271.7 259.1 21.1 1 8 s .0 339-5 611.0 19.7 203.1 751-6 1,385.8 166.0 61.0 50.7 56.1 101.6 156.8 259-7 0.9 86.1 162.2 291.1 1.1 50.7 157-6 166.3 10-7 13-0 10.0 7.5 10.3 11.1 21.1 31-5 10.1 15-1 18.9 31.0 ! \ \ 325-9 1301 105.8 995 196.1 12-2.5 137.6 583.1 5L1 338 9 601.5 1,060.7 15-9 325.5 1,055-9 2,118.6 622.1 I.223.0 2,253-3 3,362.3 SchGDl Ore*!,.Alee 1950 1975 35-3 19.0 12.1 17-7 1?. •'-17.1.5 176.0 11.0.1, 397-1 51.6.9 657.3 £5.6 226.3 5:1.3 926.0 52.0 19-2 26.C 52-9 176.5 153.1 225.6 29-9 296.0 161.3 655.1 22.7 217-2 700.9 2,036.0 61.7 26.6 19.3 77.1 •'•7 231.6 232.1 230.7 125.2 303.1 619.6 2.0 71-0 199-0 171-9 1.7 2.0 1.9 3-8 2.1 3-9 1.8 12.1 2.1 1.0 2.9 1.3 -• \ 150.7 66.8 95.3 151.8 253-1 600.5 623.8 611.1 175.2 822.5 1,311-5 1,936.7 110.2 511.5 l , t c * . l 3,133-9 6*9.5 2,0:3.1 3.137.7 5,066.9 Non -B: GreJuA'.ei 1951 1955 1965 1975 5.' 2.2 l . l 1.3 17-9 18.3 15.9' 15-5 15.6 33.9 56.5 65.3 It .1 36.8 72-1 111.7 97.1 33-2 31-3 27-1-13.3 86.1 H3-5 158.1 251 217.1 587-1 1,0,1.3 8.5 53-5 239.8 572.6 111.5 37.7 26.5 23.2 7-1 H8.2 133-1 111.5 1-7 131.6 1G1.8 272.6 1.6 . 51-'' 139.1 278-5 7.1 8.1 9.1 11.1 5 6 7-9 6.6 10.3 l . l 5-5 6.9 . 6.2 • • * \ \ 221.3 61.2 68.6 63.O 79.2 260.8 3C1.1 295-1 16.5 393 0 E32.2 1,3«7.3 21.5 112. C 151-3 962-7 371-5 377.0 1,653-2 2,703.5 School Cr*J-.^ee \JC0 .955 iS>"'5 1975 7-3 3 3 10.1 12.0 29.6 32.2 16.2 .5 1-3.5 113.fi -?Ol .8 2U1.0 10. .8 250.1. 560.7 852.0 6.1 2.1 6.2 6.1 63-1 133.7 323.0 309-5 6-5 60.9 210.1 352-7 6.1 16.1 319.5 613.8 26.5 8.3 19.8 21.1 3-1 67.2 5!-2 51.1 3.6 391.1 873 -2 1,209-5 6.5 131.2 163.0 831.6 1.0 1 ] 0.8 1.1 2-3 33 1.8 3.6 1.7 1.6 6.1 10.6 11.3 3L6 : \ 10.2 13-7 36.1 11.1 95-6 231-1 126.6 A l l . 1 *5.k 5T2.6 1,238.8 1,668.0 123-5 n i . 6 1.357-5 2,365.0 315-1 1,312.0 3.119-1 1,705.5 1 Of .oo l Gre4ua.*.et 1950 1955 1965 1975 - \ - -\ - 53-9 15-1 21.2 23.0 l . l 65.0 71.0 67-3 1.6 92-3 L23.6 193-1 1.8 79-8 153.2 339-5 - 63.1 85-3 159-5 213-9 18.6 30.0 17.7 1'.7-7 8.6 13-2 16.6 16.3 3.8 3-7 17.8 2 1 .7 122.0 100.1 180.7 236.9 22.7 95-9 121.7 l?5-0 10.2 105-5 110.2 211.7 5-6 83.5 176.0 361.2 160.1 395.2 6 :8 .6 1.C27.7 Sctool 1950 1355 !?- '5 1975 12.e 20.3 23.3 17.3 9.0 26 . c 67.0 6 8 .C 13.0 1.5.0 257 0 308.0 \ 1.1 1-3 : -7 1-9 1.6 28.5 32-3 30.9 0.3 25.7 171.6 261.8 o. l 23-0 312 .7 639-3 • 16.3 22.8 56-5 7; .6 3 9 7-9 10.0 21.5 2.0 3.3 7.1, 19.0 5.5 7 5 23 5 30.0 20.7 21.1 53.2 79.5 18.2 56.6 65.5 T2.7 11.8 55-5 2'.6 .0 351-8 13.9 7 5 5 593 2 977-3 69.6 211.6 •*2.8 1 . 131 .2 CO 1 i TOTAL TIon-Hlrr. 1950 School J955 0ra4u»lee 1965 j 1975 23.2 10.9 11.0 11.1 11 .2 62.5 6O.9 60.2 35.0 96.9 118.c 195-5 1.0.2 103.6 22 C .0 301. .£ 389-0 185-3 2C6.5 222.1 215-6 512.0 Y-i •) (121.3 51-3 119-2 1,0?'',. 1 2,008.9 27.8 268.3 1,027-0 2 ,067 -9 112.7 151.1 I67.6 185.7 18-5 117.9 620 .9 715-8 1-3 316.9 189.1 799-3 5-0 218-9 638-3 1,508-1 18.1 21.1 19-3 18.6 23.1 32.8 71.9 C c . l 11.!,' 21.0 26 .1 1*3.0 68.1 85-3 159-5 213-9 18.6 30.0 17.7 117.7 8.6 13-2 16.6 18.3 3.8 3-7 17.8 21-7 O i l .0 157.0 565.9 651.7 360.2 1,115.1 1.565.2 1 .793.1 113.6 897-0 1,766.8 3,095-0 76.8 59', -5 1,909-1 3,995-1 1,161.6 3,063.6 5,806.9 9,510.5 TOTAL Sct;rol Or»d'.jAvee 1950 15^5 1963 1575 1C3.3 66 .8 112.5 18.7.2 21.1.5 352.7 1.32 .9 i £ t . l 195.3 562-9 692.6 1.059-9 205 -8 539.5 1,372.5 2,211.0 121.1 •n-2 200.1 30/.1 ue .e IU.6 7'>6.0 1,010.1 37.7 111.1 '.'60.5 1,781.0 30.6 ":,i'-i-3 3-C-..3.6 130.8 63-3 135.6 196.6 12.1 36',. 6 '.(•1.1 113.1 7-2 530.1 1,157-2 2,371.0 8.9 306-9 1,161.9 2,293-3 1.7 2.0 3.0 5.2 33 6.C 10.9 19-9 1.2 7.8 7-6 9.0 6.1 10.6 11.3 31.6 I6.3 22.8 56.5 77.6 3-9 7-9 10.0 21-5 2.0 3 3 7.1 19.0 5 5 7-5 23-5 30.0 376.5 232.0 5:7.6 768.6 139.6 1,112.6 1.713.3 1.961.9 219.I 1.569.3 3.325.1 5.2C9-9 257-2 1,111.1 3.716-5 7,6657 1,322.7 i , a v 3 . o 9.2931 15,666.2 GTA50 TOTAL (Survey PcpvUAtloa) 195'1 1955 '9- 5 1975 124.5 77.6 1>3.1 195.0 295 -7 i.93.6 521..! 233.2 659.7 1,01.0.8 1,205.1. 21.6.0 612 .1 1,598-1 2 .605 .8 513.3 262.5 101.6 529.2 121.1, ! PQ.l 953-5 | "63.5 1,559-9 2,01-6-9 1,831-6 !j,769-9 59.1 518.15 2,:71.3 5,161.-; 513-5 217.8 103.2 3-82-3 30.6 11.5 Fl-7-5 897-3 1.011.9 1,916.6 1.15-5-9 j 170.3 13-9 525.e 1,800.2 3,B0l.U 19-7 23-1 22.3 23.7 26.7 38-7 62.8 100.3 18.6 28.8 31.0 52.0 6.1 10.6 11-3 31.6 31.1 108.1 216.1 291.5 22.1 37-9 57.7 112 .2 10.6 170 21.0 67.3 9-3 11.2 H-3 51.7 1,237-5 689.O 1,103-5 1,120.3 799-8 2,257.7 3,279.0 3,760.3 363.0 2,166-3 5,072.2 8,364-9 331.0 1,738-6 5,625.1 11,661.2 2.761.3 7.151-6 15.100.3 25,206-7 S o u r c e : The P o r t o f New Y o r k A u t h o r i t y , A v i a t i o n D e p a r t m e n t , F o r e c a s t a n d A n a l y s i s D i v i s i o n , A i r T r a v e l F o r e c a s t i n g : 1 9 6 5 - 1 9 7 5 , The Eno F o u n d a t i o n f o r H i g h w a y T r a f f i c C o n t r o l , S a u g a t u c k , 1 9 5 7 , TABLE 11 DATA MATRIX Cities Variables 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 1 12 13 14 1 5 16 1 7 B3AU 2 8 . 1 0 . 9 7 3 6 . 4 35.2 1 9 . 8 32.9 1 2 . 2 6 7 . 0 0.3 32.5 78.9 19.5 1.5 3.5 0.7 76,3 . 1 9 . 4 CALG 2 7 9 . 0 1 .01 3 9 . 1 39.8 24 .4 2 9 . 0 6.8 5 7 . 6 4 . 0 35.6 63.9 29.4 6 . 7 3 . 6 0 . 7 6 4 . 7 2 8 . 1 CHAR 1 3 . 3 0 . 8 6 37.2 3 3 . 3 1 8 . 0 3 1 . 2 1 2 . 0 8 5 . 0 10.3 3 . 6 8 6 . 0 1 2 . 0 2 . 0 3 . 8 1 .0 4 2 . 8 3 0 , 9 ED:.;O 3 3 7 . 5 1 .02 3 8 . 9 4 1 . 4 24.4 2 3 . 4 5 .8 4 5 . 7 6 .6 4 5 . 0 6 5 . 5 23.7 5.8 3 . 7 0 . 7 6 9 . 4 24.3 1 1 . 1 0 . 9 1 33 .1 43.2 1 8 . 9 34.0 2 .9 5 1 . 3 7 . 2 3 9 . 7 6 5 . 2 3 0 . 4 4 . 4 3 . 9 1 .2 6 2 . 0 2 7 . 5 PiTIL 9 3 . 2 1 .05 37.4 3 3 . 9 19.3 34.4 7.4 4 2 . 8 6 .2 4 8 . 8 7 1 . 8 24.5 3 . 7 3 . 6 0 . 5 3 0 . 0 1 5 . 6 ?RED 1 9 . S 1 . 1 1 40.3 3 7 . 2 2 0 . 8 • 3 1 . 0 1 1 . 0 83.1 7 . 6 7 . 3 7 3 . 5 2 3 . 5 2 . 9 3 . 5 1.6 • 5 1 . 9 40.3 H A L I 1 3 3 . 9 1 .01 39.6 4 1 . 2 2 4 . 0 2 3 . 8 6 .0 7 3 , 3 9.9 1 3 . 1 7 2 . 4 2 3 . 5 4 . 1 - 3 . 8 i.o 55.3 3 5 . 2 KAJ.IL 1 0 . 0 ' 1 .06 3 3 . 3 3 6 . 0 2 1 . 5 3 1 . 5 1 1 . 0 6 3 . 0 4 . 0 3 0 . 0 6 3 . 2 3 2 . 2 4 . 6 • 3 . 5 0.9 7 3 . 0 1 5 . 3 KELO 1 3 . 1 0 . 9 4 3 3 . 3 3 7 . 2 1 5 . 3 3 1 . 1 1 5 . 7 55.7 3 . 0 3 9 . 1 7 5 . 6 2 1 . 6 2 . 3 3 . 4 0 . 7 8 0 . 4 1 4 . 6 Lzm 3 5 . 4 1 .00 3 8 . 4 39.5 20.4 3 1 . 5 8 . 6 48.3 2 .3 4 4 . 4 7 3 . 9 . 2 2 . 8 3.3 3 . 6 0 . 5 7 1 . 0 2 2 . 0 LOUD 1 8 1 . 2 0 . 9 6 4 0 . 8 3 6 . 4 2 1 . 4 3 3 . 0 9 .2 7 3 . 1 3 . 2 . 2 0 . 5 6 6 . 1 2 8 . 6 5 .3 ? , 5 0 . 8 6 6 . 9 2 7 . 7 MSDI 2 4 . 4 0 . 9 6 3 5 . 6 3 6 . 1 20.6 3 2 . 3 1 1 . 0 3 3 . 9 2 , 4 56,3 • 7 9 . 3 1 8 . 9 1.8 3 . 5 0 . 5 7 4 . 2 2 1 , 4 KOilC 5 5 . 7 0 . 9 2 3 5 . 6 43.5 2 0 . 1 3 1 . 1 5 .3 5 6 . 7 . 3 6 . 0 5 . 8 7 5 . 3 • 2 1 . 3 2.9 3 . 9 0 . 6 5 9 . 3 2 8 , 0 i:Oi:2 2 1 0 9 . 5 0 . 9 7 33.2 3 3 . 1 2 3 . 0 3 2 . 5 6.4 1 7 . 8 6 4 . 1 7 .0 6 0 . 8 2 3 . 7 7 . 5 3.7 0 .8 1 9 . 4 6 9 . 3 liCBA. 1 1 . 2 0.09 3 9 . 5 4 1 . 4 2 1 . 6 27.9 . 9.1 47.3 1 0 . ( 3 9 . 6 7 6 . 0 2 2 . 2 1 . 8 3 . 7 0 . 5 7 6 , 6 1 6 . 6 KOBX 2 3 . 7 0 . 9 3 3 6 . 0 4 0 . 3 2 2 . 1 2 0 . 1 7 . 6 '53.5 2 6 . 5 1 6 . 7 6 5 . 8 2 9 . 0 5 .2 3 . 7 0 . 5 6 3 . 9 2 6 . 2 01'.7 A 429.7 0 . 9 6 3 9 . 0 4 1 . 0 . 2 1 . 4 3 1 . 0 6 .6 4 4 . 0 4 0 . 7 1 2 . 2 5 6 . 6 3 3 . 6 9 . 3 3 . 8 1.0 4 8 . 2 3 7 , 3 PE;.T 1 3 . 8 0 . 9 6 3 4 . 0 3 6 . 9 1 6 . 6 3 4 . 0 1 2 . 5 65.9 3 . 6 ' 2 9 . 1 7 4 . 6 23.4 2 . 0 3 . 4 0 . 6 9 0 . 0 7 , 5 PRAL 2 4 . 1 0 . 9 3 35.9 4 1 . 5 2 0 . 3 2 3 . 1 3 .5 4 6 . 8 1 4 . 5 3 6 . 3 7 4 . 2 23.3 2 . 5 3 . 8 0 . 6 6 8 . 7 2 6 , 5 PRC-0 1 3 . 8 1 . 1 1 • 33.4 44.9 2 4 . 5 2 7 . 9 3.7- 52.1 5 .7 4 0 . 1 6 0 . 9 5 4 . 7 4 .4 3.9 0 . 4 7 2 . 7 1 8 . 1 QUB3 3 5 7 . 5 0 . 9 3 35.3 4 0 . 3 22.5 3 0 . 8 5 .9 3 . 9 9 4 . 2 1 .6 7 6 . 1 1 3 . 5 5 .4 4 . 2 1.0 2 9 . 2 5 7 . 2 R S U I 1 1 2 . 1 • 0.93 4 1 . 6 3 8 . 9 ' 2 4 . 2 2 9 . 2 7 . 7 4 6 . 8 4 . 1 46„9 6 4 . 0 3 0 . 5 5 .5 2 . 6 0 . 9 7 1 . 4 22.5 RI:.:O 1 7 . 7 0 . 39 3 2 . 9 4 8 . 0 2 3 . 2 2 4 . 9 3 . 9 1.1 9 3 . 3 0 . 6 8 0 . 3 1 6 . 1 3 . 6 4 . 7 0 . 9 33.7 4 5 . 1 LOUP 1 0 . 8 0 . 9 0 2 9 . 9 4 3 . 9 1 8 . 8 2 9 . 9 7.4 0.9 6 0 . 8 38.3 8 4 . 0 1 4 . 3 1.7 4 . 4 0 . 4 4 2 . 3 2 3 . 8 SAJO 95.5 0 . 9 7 34.8 4 0 . 6 1 8 . 8 3 1 . 8 8 .8 7 7 . 6 1 3 . 0 6.5 80.5 1 6 . 8 2.7 3 .8 4.9 3 6 . 5 55.1 3 T J 0 90.8 0 . 9 5 3 2 . 2 4 6 . 0 2 0 . 6 27.4 6 .0 9 5 . 2 1.4 . 2 . 1 7 6 . 6 1 7 . 4 4 . 0 4 . 3 5 .7 5 3 . 0 1 9 . 5 SATII 95.5 0 . 9 C 3 7 . 0 3 3 . 9 2 4 . 0 2 8 . 0 9 . 1 4 8 . 6 4 . 1 4 5 . 5 7 1 . 6 2 5 . 9 4 . 5 3 , 6 2 . 1 7 4 . 1 1 9 . 6 I U R I 53.4 1.05 3 6 . 7 4 2 . 2 22.7 • 09,4 5 .7 47.9 1 3 . 0 3 7 . 5 5 3 . 0 3 4 . 8 7 . 2 3.a 0 . 4 7 3 . 1 2 2 . 0 3D3H 1 1 0 . 6 1 .07 3 5 . 0 4 5 . 1 '22.9 2 8 . 7 3.3 3 3 . 4 3 6 . 1 2 3 . 2 6 0 . 6 2 6 . 4 5 .0 4 . 0 0.5 5 3 . 0 3 1 . 6 S'.VCU 1 2 . 1 1 .00 3 7 . 4 4 0 . 0 2 1 . 6 2 3 . 3 1 0 . 1 4 5 . 4 3.3 4 9 . 7 7 3 . 6 2 4 . 2 2 . 2 3 . 6 0 . 6 6 2 . 3 3 4 . 2 G L B I 1 0 6 . 1 1 .05 2 9 . 2 4 6 . 9 17.5 2 8 . 6 7 . 0 ' " 7 9 . 0 9.9 9.3 8 4 . 9 1 3 . 6 1.5 4.3 0 . 6 7 2 . 2 1 4 . 0 Tim 40.1 ' 1 .03 3 4 . 5 ' 4 2 . 7 2 0 . 0 31.5 5.8 32.4 3 3 . 9 27.6 8 2 . 2 15.9 ' 1.9- ' 3.9 0 . 4 6 0 . 0 3 3 . 0 TORO 1824.4 0 . 9 3 4 3 . 2 3 4 . 8 2 2 . 8 - 3 4 . 6 7 . 8 6 0 . 0 3.3 3 2 . 0 5 3 . 5 3 2 . 6 8.9 3.4 0 . 7 5 5 . 7 2 6 . 6 VAOR 10.9 1 .09 32.9 47.7 22.9 26.7 2 . 7 3.6 . 8 6 . 2 1 0 . 2 8 5 . 8 1 2 . 4 1 .8 4 . 4 0.5 34.7 4 3 . 4 VAKG 790.1 0.99 37.3 3 5 . 0 1 9 . 2 34.6 11.2 62.1 . 3.8 2 8 . 6 6 2 . 8 30.9 6.3 3.4 1 .1 7 5 . 0 2 0 . 8 V I C 2 1 5 4 . 1 0.97 3 6 . 0 34.6 1 7 . 1 32.5 1 5 . 8 77.7 2.9 1 5 . 2 68.4 2 7 . 8 3.8 3.4 0 . 8 7 5 . 1 19.5 WSOR 1 9 3 . 5 0.99 35.5 46.5 18.7 33.2 . 8.4 46.6 . 2 1 . 1 2 8 . 0 6 9 . 6 2 5 . 8 4 . 6 3.7 0.7 7 5 . 2 18.3 WPE& 475.9 0.97 4 0 . 8 47.2 21.1 32.7 9.0 44.9 8.3 44.9 68.9 25.9 5.2 3.5 1.1 70.3 24.5 TABLE 11 ( C o n t i n u e d ) C i t i e s Variables 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 3 0 3 1 3 2 BRAH CALG CHAR m:.o m u PV/IL FRED HALI KA.'.iL K£L0 LETU LOi.'D MEDI I.;0:IC uo'tv; KG 3 A I.0I3Y OTV/A PEUT PR A L PRGO QU32 R3GI HI MO ' LOUP SAJO STJO SA'TM ;.uni SDBR S.7CU GLBY Tir.,1' TORO VAOH VAIIC VICT usoa WP2G 7 3 . 6 6 3 . 2 4 2 . 8 6 5 . 0 6 8 . 9 7 5 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 4 . 8 6 5 . 3 7 3 . 1 6 3 . 0 6 6 . 7 7 2 . 3 6 0 . 6 3 2 . 5 6 6 . 6 6 3 . 9 5 1 . 7 7 2 . 5 6 7 . 1 6 9 . 6 4 2 . 2 6 6 . 4 5 1 . 5 6 1 . 9 4 4 . 3 6 9 . 2 7 0 . 6 7 4 . 5 5 6 . 4 6 0 . 0 7 8 . 4 5 9 . 0 6 7 . 4 4 3 . 4 6 9 . 7 7 1 . 3 7 2 . 4 6 6 . 7 2 . 0 3 . 0 4 . 0 2 . 0 1 . 0 1 . 0 4 . 0 3 . 0 4 . 0 5 . 0 3 . 0 2 2 . 0 2 . 0 7 . 0 1 9 . 0 3 . 0 2 . 0 9 . 0 5 . 0 3 . 0 1 . 0 1 1 . 0 2 . 0 3 . 0 6 . 0 5 . 0 1 . 0 3 . 0 2 . 0 2 . 0 1 . 0 2 . 0 2 . 0 2 9 . 0 3 . 0 6 . 0 9 . 0 8 . 0 2 . 0 1 3 5 0 . 0 6 5 2 . 0 9 8 7 . 0 8 4 1 . 0 1 7 3 1 . 0 9 1 7 . 0 5 2 2 . 0 8 3 2 . 0 2 6 4 . 0 3 0 3 . 0 7 9 8 . 0 1 2 3 . 0 9 0 3 V 0 6 4 8 . 0 0 . 0 1 0 7 3 . 0 2 1 4 . 0 1 2 6 . 0 2 5 0 . 0 1 3 0 3 . 0 4 7 9 . 0 1 6 7 . 0 1 2 9 7 = 0 3 5 1 . 0 2 3 4 . 0 5 3 9 . 0 1 6 4 0 . 0 1 2 0 0 . 0 4 9 0 . 0 2 9 9 . 0 1 0 4 8 . 0 9 5 4 . 0 4 5 0 . 0 0 . 0 3 3 6 . 0 0 . 0 4 1 . 0 6 9 1 . 0 1 3 8 0 . 0 2 0 . 2 2 3 . 0 2 2 . 6 2 2 . 0 1 5 . 7 1 7 . 2 2 3 . 5 1 9 . 2 2 7 . 5 2 1 . 6 2 3 . 6 2 0 . 4 2 0 . 3 2 1 . 3 2 0 . 4 2 6 . 2 2 3 . 6 2 3 . 9 2 1 . 8 2 3 . 7 2 5 . 1 2 1 . 5 2 2 . 1 2 5 . 2 2 4 . 0 1 9 . 3 2 2 . 3 2 4 . 4 1 5 . 3 1 5 . 5 2 3 . 2 1 5 . 8 1 4 . 3 2 1 . 1 1 6 . 6 2 2 . 2 1 9 . 8 1 9 . 6 1 8 . 2 1 0 . 0 8 . 9 8 . 8 8 . 4 7 . 1 6 . 7 7 . 7 6 . 4 ' 7 . 8 9 . 7 1 0 . 9 8 . 8 8 . 3 9 . 8 6 . 9 9 . 7 9 . 0 6 . 0 1 0 . 8 8 . 2 8 . 0 8 . 0 8 . 7 3 . 2 8 . 9 8 . 1 8 . 7 9 . 1 • 6 . 3 6 . 2 1 0 . 9 7 . 4 6 . 2 7 . 6 7 . 4 8 . 7 7 . 9 7 . 1 7 . 8 1 2 . 7 -1 8 . 2 1 4 . 9 1 7 . 2 7 . 1 1 3 . 2 1 3 . 7 . 1 6 . 7 1 2 . 8 1 1 . 3 1 2 . 6 1 6 . 9 7 . 0 2 0 . 6 1 7 . 3 1 1 . 6 1 6 . 2 2 3 . 7 1 2 . 7 1 3 . 9 1 2 . 9 1 6 . 7 2 2 . 0 1 3 . 5 1 2 . 1 1 6 . 4 1 7 . 0 1 5 . 7 1 1 . 7 9 . 7 1 1 . 1 8 . 4 8 . 6 2 0 . 6 ' 3 . 3 1 6 . 2 1 1 . 4 1 5 . 4 1 9 . 6 1 9 . 6 1 4 . 7 . 1 7 . 9 1 4 . 5 9 . 5 1 3 . 5 1 8 . 7 2 8 . 3 1 2 . 8 1 1 . 3 1 2 . 6 1 5 . 5 1 2 . 9 1 3 . 0 1 1 . 4 1 6 . 2 1 6 . 2 1 7 . 2 1 2 . 7 1 6 . 2 1 1 . 1 . 1 4 . 7 1 4 . 5 1 5 . 2 1 5 . 1 1 3 . 7 1 5 . 3 1 4 . 8 1 0 . 7 1 0 . 3 1 5 . 5 1 1 . 9 1 0 . 1 1 1 . 5 1 1 . 1 1 3 . 1 2 4 . 3 1 2 . 8 1 4 . 8 0 . 0 6 . 3 0 . 0 2 . 1 5 4 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 7 '• 0 . 2 0 . 6 0 . 0 0 . 6 0 . 0 1 . 1 1 . 3 0 . 4 0-.0 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 6 0 . 3 0 . 3 0 . 0 0 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 3 3 2 . 0 0 . 9 2 3 . 0 3 9 . 6 • 0 . 2 3 0 . 2 0 . 5 0 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 2 1 1 . 0 1 1 . 9 1 0 . 0 1 3 . 2 2 . 3 1 7 . 3 8 . 2 1 0 . 2 9 . 0 . 1 6 . 3 1 1 . 4 2 4 . 9 1 9 . 3 1 1 . 4 3 1 . 6 5 . 1 9 . 3 1 0 . 5 0 . 4 1 1 . 4 1 3 . 0 1 7 . 2 1 0 . 0 8 . 9 8 . 7 2 0 . 1 9 . 1 1 0 . 5 4 0 . 0 1 2 . 8 6 . 1 1 6 . 3 7 . 3 2 9 . 6 5 . 8 1 9 . 5 1 0 . 7 3 5 . 8 1 9 . 8 1 0 . 4 8 . 9 9 . 9 1 1 . 5 5 . 2 5 . 1 2 1 . 8 2 0 . 1 9 . 2 6 . 2 7 . 7 8 . 2 7 . 2 9 . 1 5 . 2 5 . 1 -1 1 . 3 3 3 . 2 7 . 7 1 1 . 7 6 . 3 1 4 . 8 1 3 . 3 4 4 . 0 6 . 7 7 . 0 1 4 . 7 8 . 3 4 . 5 4 . 2 8 . 5 6 . 8 3 . 3 5 . 4 3 . 7 6 . 1 2 5 . 8 4 . 3 8 . 3 1 3 . 7 1 1 . 1 1 1 . 9 1 1 . 0 4 . 7 1 8 . 6 8 . 7 1 0 . 4 1 7 . 9 6 . 8 1 1 . 1 7 . 9 1 1 . 7 1 9 . 5 1 0 . 9 1 1 . 6 2 0 . 9 6 . 7 1 0 . 4 1 1 . 6 1 2 . 9 8 . 6 1 2 . 4 1 5 . 2 1 5 . 1 1 4 . 0 1 3 . 9 1 2 . 0 7 . 9 6 . 1 1 3 . 3 1 0 . 3 6 . 5 8 . 7 5 . 5 1 1 . 8 7 . 5 7 . 7 1 3 . 7 2 1 . 5 2 1 . 7 2 0 . 8 2 1 . 0 1 1 . 9 1 7 . 2 1 8 . 7 1 7 . 0 1 7 . 9 2 2 . 7 2 5 . 3 1 7 . 8 1 7 . 6 2 6 . 1 1 5 . 9 2 0 . 9 1 6 . 2 1 3 . 4 2 2 . 9 1 9 . 7 2 0 . 3 1 7 . 2 2 3 . 1 1 6 . 6 1 8 . 1 2 1 . 2 2 3 . 8 2 2 . 1 1 5 . 0 1 4 . 1 2 4 . 4 1 5 . 3 1 4 . 4 1 8 . 5 1 3 . 8 2 0 . 3 1 6 . 4 1 5 . 7 2 1 . 2 1 2 5 6 . 0 1 2 2 7 . 0 1 6 0 5 . 0 1 1 4 8 . 0 1 0 4 3 . 0 1 1 3 6 . 0 2 2 5 1 . 0 1 0 0 5 . 0 2 2 8 9 . 0 1 5 2 5 . 0 1 5 7 5 . 0 1 3 4 3 . 0 1 3 3 7 . 0 1 2 9 5 . 0 9 6 1 . 0 1 6 5 3 . 0 1 6 5 2 . 0 1 0 1 7 . 0 1 3 9 1 . 0 1 1 7 2 . 0 1 9 7 3 . 0 9 6 7 . 0 1 1 8 0 . 0 1 1 Q 5 . 0 1 1 4 0 . 0 1 0 1 6 . 0 1 1 8 0 . 0 1 1 5 3 . 0 1 2 7 4 . 0 1 1 1 9 . 0 1 7 4 0 . 0 8 6 7 . 0 9 1 6 . 0 1 1 5 9 . 0 1 4 3 8 . 0 . 1 0 8 0 . 0 1 0 2 1 . 0 9 0 9 . 0 1 0 3 6 . 0 1 2 3 3 . 0 2 0 4 9 . 0 1 7 6 7 . 0 1 9 0 3 . 0 3 7 6 . 0 1 0 1 0 . 0 1 7 3 8 . 0 1 1 8 8 . 0 2 5 4 0 . 0 9 6 7 . 0 1 2 9 4 . 0 1 2 1 5 . 0 6 5 0 . 0 1 1 6 4 . 0 1 4 3 5 . 0 2 0 9 4 . 0 1 3 2 4 . 0 8 1 1 . 0 1 5 4 0 . 0 1 4 9 5 . 0 1 5 3 3 . 0 1 3 2 5 . 0 2 1 5 5 . 0 1 1 9 9 . 0 9 2 0 . 0 1 2 5 5 . 0 1 5 3 1 . 0 2 1 9 1 . 0 7 7 3 . 0 7 5 9 . 0 2 3 0 7 . 0 4 5 9 . 0 7 1 2 . 0 1 6 5 9 . 0 6 3 9 . 0 2 0 2 9 . 0 5 4 4 . 0 6 6 6 . 0 7 0 1 2 . 0 2 0 7 . 0 2 3 6 . 0 1 6 6 . 0 2 8 0 . 0 1 3 4 . 0 1 7 5 . 0 2 5 5 . 0 1 6 6 . 0 4 2 0 . 0 2 1 7 . 0 2 1 6 . 0 2 0 7 . 0 1 7 6 . 0 1 2 6 . 0 2 3 1 . 0 2 4 5 . 0 2 4 3 . 0 1 9 5-. 0 2 5 2 . 0 1 3 6 . 0 3 9 3 . 0 1 3 0 . 0 2 4 0 . 0 1 4 7 . 0 1 6 6 . 0 1 3 7 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 -2 0 9 . 0 2 2 4 . 0 1 5 5 . 0 2 4 6 . 0 3 5 . 0 1 2 7 . 0 2 3 6 . 0 2 7 5 . 0 2 2 3 . 0 1 7 5 . 0 1 3 4 . 0 2 1 9 . 0 74 APPENDIX B 75 B - 1 : FACTOR A N A L Y S I S F fi C T Q R- - S N ft 1-Y-SI-S-. : 1 — NO. OF CASES 39 . NO. OF VARIA3LES 32 MEANS STANDARD DEVIATION VARI ABLE X 1 217.23495 444.44189 X 2 0.93346 0.05387 X 3 36 .74 36 3 3.022 5? X 4 40.72 5 57 3.68205 . •' • X 5 20.97427 .2.31081 X 6 30.3*735 2.92264 • • , • X 7 3.07434 3.14497 X . % 50.63193 22.90869 X. 9 19.73193 26.57672 X 10 27.08 71.0 . 16.31056 X 11 71.39476 7.9559? X 12 23.97682 6.31936 : . X 13 4.12 56 3 • ' • 2.06776 ' X 14 3.73 34 5 0.368.22. X 15 1.00 2 56 • 1.07127 X 16 62. 17941 15.85990 X 17 27.79 430 12.75662 X 13 62 . 79 73 3 10.86589 X 19 •• 5.17949 . 5.95541 . X 20 654.94 849 ' 478.60278 • X 21 21.23703 3.32107 X 22 3.2? 3 30 1.29763 X 73 14.42559 4.C9612 X 24 14.50 506 3.74044 X 25 5.03717 12.61292 X 26 14.34353 8.41279 X 27 10.47944 8.37354 .X 23 11.28714 3.35132 X ?9 13.92812 3.52687 X 30 1290.64C8 7 •-. . • 341. 15405 . X 31 1476.17920 1066.70532 X 32 210.99°93 64.98.726 CORRELATION C0EcFICIENTS X 1 X 2 X 3 X 4 X 5 X 6 X 7 X 8 X 9 X 10 X 11 X 12 X 1 I.00000 X 2 -0.06887 l.OOCOO X 3 0.366 33 0.13619 i .ooooo X 4 -0.26016 O.C 3<- 99 -0.4405 7 1.00000 X 5 0.22203 0.30204 0.45740 0.17286 1.OOOOO X 6 0.32831 -0.10892 0.26208 -0.45349 -0.46292 1.00000 X 7 -0.06453 -0.21493 0.07596 -0.7C286 -0.58609 0.36617 1.00000 X 3 -0.12214 0.05264 0.21917 -0.36181 -0.32661 . 0.19666 0.46304 1.00000 X o 0.13243 -0.15341 -0.39917 0.45976 0.21611 -0.29726 -0.50418 -0.79110 1.00000 X 10 -0. 12953 0.17110 0.29965 -0.1991.3 0.09925 0.17643 •0. 15501' -0. 12886 -0.50035 1.00000 X 11 -0.3 62 73 -0...2 1059 -0.67296 0.27852 -C.40333 -0.13022 0.08431 -0.11735 0.31171 . -0.29425 1.00000 X 12 0.2 5121 0.2 57 59 0.66334 • -0.30230 0.35241 0.13221 -0.02618 0.16586 -0.40214 0.37931 -0.9841B 1.00000 X 13 0.62350 0.02044 0.54524 -0'ri4T69 0.47494 0.09673 -0.24557 -076571'7 CT.03076 -0.02554 -O.P40C3'"' 0.73068 X 14 -0 .16337 -0.07353 -0.66567 0.70733 0.03397 -0.40094 -0.57609 -0.39206 0.66500 -0.4VC79 0.48245 -0.53250 X 15 -0.032 13 -0.17310 -0.15153 0.09832 -0.07832 -0 .03942 -0.00310 0.42154 -0.14C78 -0.35844 0.17149 -0.21212 cn X 16 -0.35°52 0.21323 0.142-26—0.-26869-—Gv-25-74-3 Ov-18-2^ 7 0v«612 0.39390 -0.73433 0.65237 -0.27463 0.39531 X 17 0.41147 -0.00329 0.03937 0.12422 0.32437 -0.09326 -0.36351 -0.39660 0.65913 -0.54486 0.13628 -0.24290 X 18 -to.29606 0.10975 -0.02947 -0.12500 -0.26975 0.14805 0.28630 0.33317 -0.65187 0.60978 -0.23269 0.32888 X 19 0.74222 -0.21460 0.33575 -0.37913 0.04031 0.39887 0.09411 -0.01583 0.13578 -0.25553 -0.28724 . 0.20003 X 20 -0^.37152 -0.13644 0.03673 0.26682 0.00576 -0.06476 -0.08662. 0.24818 -0.39559 0.33219 0.22811 -0.17407 X 21 -0.06209 -0.13295 0.24657 -0.27757 0.19767 -0.25662 0.29412 0.08413 -0.06900 -0.00882 13213 0.15415 X 22 -0.24030 -0.36272 -0.04920 -0.28943 -0.21C42 -0.08019 0.46433 0.16456 -0.26977 0.22431 0.24207 -0.17134 X 23 0.40621 -0.19702 0.52313 -0.14657 0.33420 0.04129 -0.00677 0.18619 -0.02934 -0.24424 -0..43761 0.34985 X 24 -Q.14153 - p . l j ? 36 0. 1 3475 -0.24302 0.03134 -0.12209 0.33930 0.34338 -0.14012 -0.25369 0^0 7 3 65 -0.06462 X 25 -0"."13403 0.23533 -0.23167 "0.37243 -0.07237 0.01306 -0.47691 -0.18625 0.17480 0.00107 0.1"53'34 -0'.'141 20" X 26 0.51679 0.07856 0.16193 -0.07283 0.05645 0.32851 0.00245 -0.01127 -0.04389 0.03181 -0.36637 0.30509 X 27 -0.09250 -0.25299 0.CQ561 0.05048 0.14C52 -0.27171 0.01888 -0.03179 C.31008 -0.44581 -0.03287 -0.01308 X 23 - 0 . 12410 -0.16420 -0.05463 -0.02286 0.C7034 -0.28855 0.Q5757 0.060.95 -0.06522 0.02549 0.092H -^0.06150" X 29 -0.12490 -0.22183 0.12777 -0.22095 -0.05183 0.01446 .0.33185 0.33108 -0.41717 0.22150 0.12486.. -0.07332 X 30 -0.30406 0.3 133 9 0.24378 -0.24387 0.09777 -0.22_612 0. 24734 CU21 298 -0.24033 0._10971 -0 .06917 0.15861 X 31 0.15322 -0.03215 0.43530 0.04773 0.21357 0.04244 0.15728 0.06009 -0.20602 0". 24878 -0.17196 0." 16394 X 32 0.14337 0.40244 0.49565 -0.27786 0.39312 -0.05441' 0.07759 -0.00135 -0.21134 0.32826 -0.52061 0.56465 x~T3 x"T4 x~T5 X~T6 x~Tt J T T e x~T9 X 20 TTL x~22 5TT3 5TT4" X 13 1.00000 X 14 -0.228 0 6 1.00000 _ . •  X 15 -0.0i2"f7 0.14317 1.00000 X 16 -0.15065 -0.53632 -0.26643 1.00000 X 17 0.21673 0.32173 0.18743 -0.89996 1.00000 • ". .  X 18 -0.10330 -0.32298 -0.15264 0.90397 -0.90829 1.00000 • . X 19 0.49412 -0.14564 -0.C7020 -0.30142 .0.30414-0.222 64 . 1.00000 X__7 0 -0.3453 3 -0.0519 4 0.2 9 2 79 0.25738 -0.2830 8 0.31164 -Q. 5525 6 1.00 000 _ • . ' X 21 0.03469 -0."l407 5 6.06643 0.00326 -0.05525 -0.09043 0.0224~7 -0~.09'45T~ tTWOOO X 22 -C.40724 -0.23847 0.02038 0.30362 -0.31269 0.23058 -0.09989 0.17907 0.47426 1.00000 X 23 0.61321 -0.31874 0.24095 -0.20879 0.23C31 -0.25029 0.39626 -0.10965 0.37974 0.00231 1.000C0 X 24 -0.08732 -0. 115-74 0.09161 -0.02362 0.03775 -0.10643 -0.03584 0.08570 0.26515 0.05565 0.279C8 1.00000 X 25 -0.15796 0.30324 -0. 11292. -C.10176 0.07408 -0.04494 -0.21529 0.16176 -0.62C79 -0.39043 -0.54984 -0.41858 X 26 0.478 20 -0.14676 -0.05132 0.( 0359 0.10076 0..09337 0.50150 ^0^31006 -0.26342 -0.32017 0. 19256 -0.27021 _ X 27 0. 16472 0.1 1370 6.1 1436 -6.26066 0.24739 -0.25231 -0.008"6'3 -0.14145" 0.39175 -C.09422 '0.34207 0.55612' X 23. -0.16565 -0.00410 0. 12101 0.07630 -0.13585 0.09072 -0.22.673 0.13916 0.39421. 0.36695 0.23301 .0.12278 X 29 -0.24097 -0.35020 0.24940 0.2.866.0 -0.27739 0.19766 -0.13143 0.30854 0.44794 0.81475 0.31259 0.09245 T~30 -0.22213 -0.18084 1 -0.11524 0.16901 -0.19197 -0.00476 -0.18450 -0.06504 0.64505 0.36253 -0.07294 0.02348 X 31 0.14502 -0.29973 0.03130 0.11854 -0.06184 0.00839 -0.06990 0.26161 0.22801 0.19585 0.39790 0.07164 X 32 0.27661 -0.3 5 1 4 7 - 0 . 2 0446 0.20845 -0.17705 0.07081 0.07976 -0.19706 0.49010- 0.14423 0.11317 -0.14055 X 25 X 26 X 27 X 28 X 29 X 30 X 31 X 32 X 25 1.00000 ; ' . ' • .' . ' ' • • : • X 26 -0.29894 1.00000 X 27 -0.29831 -0.26818 1.00000 ' X 23 -0.48666 -0.14C90 0.06597. 1.00000 • •  X 29 -0.54007 -0.16533 -0.09636 0.44503 1.00000 X 30 -0.23703 -0.27371 -0.01047 0.27192 0.28160 1.00000 '. X 31 -C.29994 -0.0010C -0.03953 0.29822 0.40544 0.14868 1.00000  T~32 -0.22455 0.02583 -0.14749 0.10109 0.12937 0.67536 0.31312 1.00000 EIGENVALUES 6.79159 5.56375 4.10594 3.19521 2.15812 . 1.90138 1.52965 1.31539 . 0.90632 0.72260 0. 53012 0.55492 0.50095 0.43648 0.39107 . 0.25510 0.23210 0.20P84 0.16692 0.12946 0.09684 O.C7C67 0.04 764 0.04695 : 0.C3236 0.02072 0.01855 0.01239 ; 0.CC510 0.00240 0.0C023 0.00000 . ' CUMULATIVE PROPORTION OF EIGENVALUES 0.21224 0.38611 0.51442 0.61427 0.68171 0.74113 0.78894 0.83004 0.85836 0.88095 0.39907 0.91642 0.93207 0.94571 0.95793 0.96590 0.97316 0.97968 0.98490 0.98894 . 0.99879 0.99937 0.99976 0T99992 n-QQQQQ i .odcoo i . e r r o o EIGENVECTORS VECTOR . . . 1 0.00521 -0.20494 0. 14522 0.0 3 743 0.23592 0.16107 0.23071 0.06732 0.10033 -0.24053 -0.31R63 0.04977 -0.01507 -0.03940 . -0.18091 0. 0. 0. 11319 . 28497 04179 0.22660 -0.23945 -O.07C85 0.20377 0.22830 0.07827 -0.31873 ,0.01687 0.1994? 0.22322 C.05 ICC 0.15512 2 0.147 55 0.32196 -9.2P605 0.20137 0.03762 0.23760 0.24485 0.37432 -0.07236 -0.C6866 0.22628 -0.04140 ' • 0. -0. 06082 17520 -0.11704 0.21899 -C.08883 -0.17703 0.10824 0.28654 -0.C7386 -C.21981 3 0.02393 0.04749 -0.00303 -0.19323 0.13131 -C.21527 0.2 5049 0.01761 -0.01806 -0.06828 -0.06940 0.04299 p. -0. 21778 14479 0.06984 0.12548 -0.08627 0.06381 -0. 13810' 0.08559 -0.0627C -0.22661 0.12771 0.34214 0.12 7 53 -0.14431 0.22430 0. C 0096 -0.05122 0.25540. 0.03212 0.26492 0. 18245 -0.31751 -0. -0. 19 305 14913 " 0.158 55 C.27579 -0.22257 0.24397 0.03115" 0.25013 -O.OT406--0.141CC . 4 -0.17 346 -0.11857 0.17983 0.25114 0.14174 - C . C C851 0.07850 0.02274 , -0.02594 0.2 352 8 C.10135 -0.07149 0.38032 -0.10759 0.05585 . -0.37312 0.02478 -0.18498 -0.29647 . -0.03267 0.03774 -0.18113 -0.00611 0.14406 0.0777P -0.27963 0.00012 0.14706 0.C9679 0.2663C ERROR 0.12 609 BOUNDS POR EIG 0.29013 ENVALUES ; 0.00014-91 .0.000 0808 0.0001401 O.f 0C0646 . ' .' ERROR BOUNDS FOR. EIGENVECTORS 0.0002429 0.0001316 0.0003077- 0.C001419 FACTOR MATRIX ( 4 FACTORS) Z 1. Z 2 F 1 0.01359 0.09754 F 2 0.75943 O.0P874 F 3. 0.01628 0.43621 F 4 -0.32079 0.44892 . Z 3 Z 4 Z 5 0.60124 -0.62683 -C.03927 0.57754 -0.17137 0.53373 0.03569 •0.13836 . 0.08712 0.14032' 0.42057 0.67983 Z 6 Z 7 z a 0.29497 C.59C53 0.5 310.3 0.14345 -0.27607 -0.20952 0.29339 0.25426 0. 12930--0.66695 -0.51921 . -0.32373 ; Z 9 Z 10 Z 11 -0.83064 0.5317 3 ' -0.5 34 10 0.255 n -0.18601 -0.67473 0.17.342 0.45917 0.2 53 79 • 0.13889 . • 0.26286 -0.21195 Z 12 Z 13 Z 14 0.61431 0.17543 -0.33037 0.56045 0.83293 -0.16195 0.29242 •0.10379 0 .06508 0.25336 0.04065 0.18116 Z 15 Z 16 Z 17 -0.10267 0.74265 -0.62402 -0.09764 -0.41324 0.51655 0.36971 0.39118 0.32127 -0.19232 0.04430 -0.05839 Z 18 Z 19 Z 20 0.5949 6 0 .043 55 0.13290 -0.41753 0.67 58 7 -0.51843 •0.45099 0.06311 •0.02850 -CO 1092 -0.49985 0.17301 Z 21 Z 22 Z 23 0.3 78 45 0.41976 0.26146 0.05544 -0.46757 0.59086 0.69327 0.45451 0.51751 0.32154 -0.01521 -0.046 37 ' Z 24 I 25 Z 26 0.12969 -0.47146 0.10891 -0.04260 -0.16369 0.51568 0.53681 0.64337 0.302 18 -0.12778 0 .09982 -0.33066 m z 27 - 0 . 1 8 4 6 4 — S-5-1-6-'T7-3 G-.Q6-7-47-z 28 0.203 99 - 0 . 2 0 3 5 0 0 . 4 9 4 3 5 0 . 2 5 7 5 1 z 29 0 . 5 1 9 7 1 - 0 . 3 2 5 7 4 0 . 5 0 6 8 5 0 . 0 0 0 2 1 z 30 '. 0 . 4 0 4 2 6 - 0 . 1 4 790 0 . 2 8 5 7 1 0 . 4 7 6 0 2 z 31 . V 0 . 3 8 4 5 2 0.11202 3.2 5841 . 0 . 2 2 5 3 8 z 32 0 . 5 2 4 7 9 0 . 3 0 9 7 3 0 . 0 0 1 9 4 0 . 5 1 8 6 0 U'U WHERE U I S THE J N R 0 T A T E 0 FACTOR MATRIX 1 2 3 6.79156 •0.00001 5.56372 0.00002 -O.COCOl 4.10592 4. 0.OOC02 . -O.COOOO -0.00000 3.19519 ITERATION CYCLE 0 . VARIANCES 0.246669 1 2 . 3 0.320230 0.330469 0.3 32853 / • . . . 4 5 6 0.3 33271 0.333335 0.333346 7 • 8 9 0.333348 0.333347 0.333343 i' ' ' ' ' 10 11 12 0.333348 0.333343 0.333343 ROTATED FACTOR MATRIX •( 4 F A C T O R S ) VARIABLE F 1 F 2 3 F 4 Z 1 -0. 17 7 59 0.79523 -0.01993 0.12556 Z 2 0.06 569 -0.15900 -0.36042 0.49969 Z 3 0.20357 0.45T64 C.26810 0.62709 Z 4 -0.51036 -0.46396 -0.37775 -0.00727 Z 5 -0.47036 0.014 23 0.05662 0.72905 Z 6 0.48535 0.56179 -0.15102 -0.25399 Z 7 0.64072 0. 15 5 30 0.47515 -0.3142 5 - • ' ' ' : " • ' ' ' ' ' '•" Z 8 0.55406 0.09100 0.3 3596 -0.13881 Z 9 -0.36 355 -0.00190 -0.18114 -0.16115 * Z 10 0.62 070 -0.19994. -0.18170 < 0.44122 Z 11 -0.19701 -0.49737 0.02963 -0.75156 Z 12 0.30469 0.39 542 -0.02613 0.76935 Z 13 -0.17 274 0.70718 -0.03602 0.53993 Z 14 .-0.67 760 -0.35313 . -0.27434 -0.30608 Z 15 -0.11943 0.00338 0.29775 -0.30135 Z 16 0.37699 -0.23299 -0.05134 0.22639 Z 17 -0.79 263 C.34319 0.03402 -0.12 504 Z 18 0.79391 -0.22137 -C.16576 0.13082 Z 19 -0.09624 0.8 3454 0.06604 -0.04969 Z 20 0.26 2 57 -0.49423 0.03493 -0.05244 Z 21 -0.06486 -0.12617 0.78637 0.30317 Z 22 0.35493 -0.32704 0.59190 -0.13532 Z 23 -0.13919 0.50772 0.57085 0.26074 -.' Z 24 -0.^ 3452 0.03302 0.54385 -0.15833 Z 25 -0. 11244 -0.22246 -0.77680 '-0.08610 Z 26 0.09 783 0.632 82 -0.23937 0.09507 vo 7. 27" -0^ 43073- -O-s-0-3-9-4-1--• 0^ 43-396- :-0.05214 Z 23 -0.01401 -0.30943 0.53743 0.09451 Z 29 0.35793 -C.21215 0.67827 -0.02388 Z 30 0.13369 -0.35607 0.42704 0.40804 Z 31 ' V . 0.10343 -0.C 0327 -.. 0.39044 0.33884 Z 32 0.14377 . 0.01313 0.21010 . 0.75849 V V WHERE V IS THE ROTATED FACTOR MATRIX . -1 0.68009 2 -0.06319 0.40919 3 0.40117 0.15733 0.71399 4 -0.27 170 0.1727 6 -0.42 20 5 0.61847 5 0.18 530 0.31072 0.38314 . 0.20 674 0.75616 6 0.33163 -0.12992 , 0. 15614 -0.44946 -0.41398 0.63849 7 -0.03 921 .-0.31039 0. 13182 -0.57625 -0.50135 0.40627 0.75916 3 ' -0.05016 -0.16352 0. 15745 -0.45089 -0.34149 0.30455 0.57238 0.44740 9 0. 135 22 -0.07166 , -0.32628 0.5li20 0.27841 -0.35190 -0.58901 -0.51711 0.80450 10 -0.21020 , 0.35853 0.26233 -0.15859 0.01658 0.10431 0.14165 0.20342 -0.57381 0.65294 11 -0.45530 -0.320C 0 -0.73130 .0.32581 -0.46069 -0.18890 0.04672 -0.04018 0.28682 -0.35973 0.35241 12 0.35746 0.350^ 9 0.71843 -0.33469 0.42175 0.17857 0.00244 0.08922 -0.38312 0.45427 -0.33533 0.34178 13 0.66155 0.15899 0.61740 -0.23026 0.48295 0.18175 -0.18764 -0.11B41 0.06734 -0.00384 -0.72491 0.64333 0. 82 27 6 14 -0.19345 -0.0 4 24 3 -0. 56503 0.61552 0.07499 -0.40809 -0.52316 -0.45724 0.68483 -0.43518 0.53121 -0.57441 -0.23805 0.75279 15 -0.019 37 . -0.26623" -0.13192 -0.05090 • -0.14662 -0.02449 0.16018 0.07600 0.09776 -0.26187 0.25715 -0.27463 -0.15041 0.09029 0.19374 16 -0. U158 0.22628 0.20010 -0.32174 -0.25368 0.24500 0.43018 0.41602 -0.78406. . 0.70014 -0.22844 0.3 50 60 -0.19218 -0.56718 -0.13904 0.87728 17 0.39730 -0.18138 -0.07359 0.23336 0.28849 -0.16528 -0.39910 -0.37915 0.69781 -0.6219 5 .0.03027 -0.20239 0. 3108.8 0.44483 0.14363 -0.80514 " 0.76283 18. . -0.29319 '0.21279 : 0.C9892 -0.24337 -0.29295 0.25520 0.35763 0.3486 5 -0.68053 C.62798 -0.15041 0.2 603 7 -0.21795 ' -0.45774 -0.18494. 0.79034 -0.73121 0.73186 19 0. 67319. -0. 1376 5 0.3480 8 -0.36266 0.02470 . 0.42477 0.11494 0.05170 0.0 7757 -0.26052 . -0. 35 723 0.26071 0.57759 . -0.23240 0.04895 -0.29348 0.37115 -0.27908 0.71256 20 -0.44697 0.05705 -0.19627 . 0.08250 -0.16681 -0.14220 0.12455 0.11951 -0.22368 0.23232 0.23480 -0.156 70 -0.42447 0.00310 -0.00683 0.33177 -0.37000. 0.30654 "^0.43285" 0.31722 21 -0.06642 -0.11614 0.32999 -0.20762 0.29425 -0.29812 0.21723 0.17469 -0.13506 -0.C2415 -0.12395 0.143J5 0.05734 . -0.22003 0.15010 0.00078 -0.00305 -0.11457 -0.06218 0.05690 0.73341 22 -0.35190 -0.20563 -0.00358 i-O.25204 -0.23678 -0.06646 0.50042 0.38456 -0.39133 0.11846 0.21213 -0. 14C73 -0.3S698 -0.24601 0.17352 0.32649 . -0.35655 0.24018 -0.26128 0.28263 0.4^ 2 67 0.60162 • 0 23 0.45371 -0.16862 0.51039 -0.35654 0.31865 0.04097 0.14693 0.09697 0.01698 -0.20762 -0.39456- 0.3 2331 0.51195 -0.28751 0.11571 -0.25449 0.31102 -0.32405 0.46667 -0.29436 0.47616 0.06940 0.68743 24 0.00167 -0.2 32 6 5 0.05460 -0.20199 -0.06793 -0.04012 0.29118 0.18857 -0.04325 -0.19671 0.12547 -0.13343 -0. 07576 -0.089C1 0.21388 -0.10173 . 0.07699 -0.14575 . 0.07466 0.00192 0.37774 0.32028 0.29247 0.32312 25 -0.15227 0.2 64 94 -0.38695 0.45466 -0.05704 -0.04037 -0.44863 -0.33156 0.25211 0.07785 0.17 460 -0.16817 -0.15641 0.39421 -0.19267 -0.02639 -0.0C288. 0.07691 -0.22186 0.057e2 -0.60159 -0.41529 -0.55756 -0.41229 0.67296 „. 26 0.502 57 0.03953 0.30496 -0.25380 0.01878 0.415C0' 0.01735 . 0.01818 -0.05764 0.01964 -0.41233 0.3 594 3 0. 4905 7 -0.25319 -0.10946 -0.02784 0.11960 -0.009R1 0.49817 -0.30045 -0.24563 -0.3267 3 0.19003 -0.12772 0.02598 '" 0.47637" 27 0.09135 -0.21687 0.013 54 0.03848. . 0. 18973 -0.23979 -0.04746 -0.08215 0.30171 -0.37692 0.11779 -0.16752 0.05780 0.17523 0.19650 -0.42082 0.37591 -0.43141 0.10477 -0.11420 GO O 0.33514 0.05889 -0.18473 0.17698 0.14246 -0.24902 0.26041 -0.29272 -0.05299 0.10151 -0.05760 0.13216 . C.26759 -0.35520 • -0.33982 -0. 14996 -0.34577 0.16579 • -0.12667 -0.28581 0.05362 -0.31685 -0.04227 0.32231 0.37809 0.16863 -0.08862 0.22245 0.52559 -0.32974 28 29 0.34854 0.09844--C.24243 -0.09320 0.10171 -0.06795 C.49123 0.40154 v-0. 24862 -0. 1992 1 • 0.07333 -0.01119 0.13151 -0.01942 0.39371 0.40969 0.21664 -0.09990 -0.27609 -0.42692 -0.16542 -0.00278 0.16308 0.13024 0.22355 30 0.52974 0.60031 -0.26417 0.11537 -0.14307 0.20271 0. 20571 0.23453 -0.06997 0.35333 -0.51777 -0.06731 0.25369 -0.20690 -0.01298 -0.26395 -0.30328 0.27066 0. 13364 0. 10504 -0.26466 C.42291 0.12850 0.16822 0.63309 -0.2.5788 -0.30209 0.25661 0.20462 31 0.49577 0.36146 0.01379 0.03591 -0. 26185 0.2=3072 0.14410 • '0.33673 0.14370 0.15127 -0.30268 -0.20125 0.22042 -0.27979 0.00177 -0.27568 -0.09664 0.14817 0.09278 0.14483 -0.11222 0.37638 0.14117 0.06300 0.40318 -0.21463 -0.00373 0.49352 0.14344 0.02465 32 0.40346 0.22305 0.27797 0.07596 0.31064 . 0.29000 0.56724 0.15501 . -0.34338 -0.16435 0.49743 -0.05319 . -0.14722 0.10707 -0.04437 0.24142 0.04615 0.29437' -0.28447 0.31999 0.3831C -0.59868 0.62705 0. 33418 0.063't6 0.35367 0.64023 0.38641 0.29717 -0.39185 -0.18314 -0.01036 -0.24760 0.28395 0.04419 -0.19714 -0.00980 0.17635 0.17853 -0.02669 0.17294 -0.00117 0.41376 CHECK ON COMMU .ALITIES VARIABLE BEFORE ROTATION AFTER ROTATION DIFFERENCE X 1 X 2 X 3 0.63010 0.40919 0.7160 0 0.68009 0.40919 0.71599' 0.00001 0.00000 . . 0.00001 X 4 X 5 X 6 0.51943 0.75617 0.63349 0.61847 . 0.75616-0.63849 C.C0001 • . 0.00001 . '.0.00001 X 7 X 8 X 9 0 . 75917 0.44740 0.30451 0.75916 0.44740 0. 80450-0.00001 0.00001 0.00001 X 10 X 11 X 12 0.65295 0.35242 0.34179 0.65294 0.85241' 0.34178 . COO001 . COO 001 0.00001 X 13 X 14 X 15 0.82277 0.75230 0.19374 0.82276-0.75279 0.19374 0.00001 0.C0001 0.00000 X 16 X 17 X 18 0.87729 0.76234 0.73186 0.87728' 0.76283-0.73186 0.00001 0.00001 0.00001 X 19 X 20 X 21 0.71256 . 0.31722 0.73042 0.71256 0.31722 0.73041 0.00 001 0.00000 0.0C001 X 22 X 23 X 24 0.60163 0.68 744 0 .32313 0.60162 0.68743 0.32312 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 X 25 X 26 X 27 0.67297 0.47633 0.37 309 0.67296 0. 4763 7 0.37809 . 0.CC001 0.CC001 0.00 000 X 28 X 29 X 30 0.39 3 72 0.53310 0 . VJ3 52 0.39371 0.63309 0.49352 0.00000 0.00001 0.00001 • X 31 X 32 0.27 79 3 0.64029 0.27797-0.64028 0.00000 0.00001 THE PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL VARIANCVOF THE ORIGINAL STANDARDIZED VARIABLES WHICH IS ACCCUNTED FOP IN THE FACTOR SPATE IS 61".4 INVERTED OR PARTIALLY INVERTED CORRELATION MATRIX X I X 2 X 3 X 4 X 5 X 6 X 7 X 8 X 9 X 10 X 11 X 12 X 1 -15.07648 X 2 5.10976 -12.25652 X 3 -5\ 296 45 1.25501 -32.71420 . • X 4 -12.08114 11.64523 -8.62554 -53.99150  X 5 -11.99239 12.18239 -17.49350 -27.30832 -56.42519 X 6 -5.31616 5.35620 -2.01410 -21.56819 -20.52220 -14.20367 X 7 -12.77^55 7.20478 -33 .91226 -31.54755 -62.04933 -13.24055 -92.26852 '  X 8 -44.42651 -2.56905 43."l0936-123.41774 92.30009 -17.09084 115.43550********** X 9 -43.50333 -11.31594 43.7586 5-12 0.47827 119.39174 -9.81882 13 8.06242**********+********* X 10 -27.761 96 -7.90333 U.42055 -67.84534 82.97278 -2.43580 '97.66615********************-739.27222  X 11 -37.755 , 7 12.71C03-106.73979 79.08363-153.70268 4.99820-2 0 5.07 726 962.295901081.28320 690.58 740********** X 12 -35.70850 5.2 6464-101.573 32 76.96764-152.669 80 5.04403-203.67236 911.55 8841018.0 5200 654.29639******************** X 13 - ?_. 0 0 5 01 - 0 • r 3 3 43 0.0029 6 0 ._00 7_31 0 ._0_0 280 0^0003 2 0.0 0444 -0.0 0 493 - 0.0096 2 -0.00796 -3.88069 -3.0 64 70_ X 14 -?.'5'-6 17 -0.39 73 5 -19""."2 9339 16". 41826 - 24. 17 52 3 2.40521 -42.09767 134. 796 91 2 03 . 44 6 9T""l2T." 5 9 5 90"^1 577'23 8 9=2 0 9 .31055 X 15 -2.04017 -1.50473 -7.53530 4.82570 1.30107 1.97781' 0.68942 14.80604 9.02522 4.03010-17.04980 -16.3685? X 16 -0. 52335 3. 35976 30.44330' -2. 92357 32.21133 4.03255 46.14984-159.740 28-18 6.41 194-12 8. 19 8 87 228.28293 225.61659 X 17 -5. 55343 19.10197 3.27963 -41. 345~29 -3.89429 -14. 20712 7. 01249-16 3. 13908-1 60.69669 -93.4"5T82 1 77.97 749 184.02113 X 13 -9.01943 21.1 70'tl -22.50306 -37.69582 -37.42480 -18.54700 -36.59273 21.00290 46.93042 4 5.26149 -49. 12605 -34.12756 X 19 10 .733 93 -8.1312_5 19.49 744 _10.07290 25.99960 8.06599 30. 52264 -51 .62553 -64.32140-47.70049 118.35751 109.33965 X 20 6.06426 -9.'4 7 54 2 ~7 797447" T6.30595 12". 88334 7.33142 9:49193 19.89520 r2700562 "5.30377 11.88090 " "3.90046"" X 21 6.00349 -5.34207 13.49359 0.25911 29.40527 4.93392 37.2 3268-142.51187-163.37096-103.63 298 163.96169 157.67702 X 22 -3.62312 -5.13446 -5.01556 -0.73725 -9.92109 -3.92326-12.55667 23.37317 2-6.13542 15.59169 -51.86575 -53.38278 X~23 -5.9C468 5.33311 -11 .70932 .13.45872 -29.48373—-0.93917 -39. 29106 201.20632 225.46375 1 35. 56850-2 32. 79353-? 1 B. 502 18 X 24 5.39411. -4.63939 21.92149. 7.84326 34.44234 7.37408 42.94806-10 5.333 63-130.30299 -89.72139 171.60097 165.96729 X 25 10.5 7^04 -11 .03633 19.36703 23.29407 36.02122 15.48687 33.36470_-20.03823 -44.8 7268 -42. 53043 93.32056 89.86198 X 26- 10".'53C06 -13.91 704 16.06152 36.65857 38. 15649 13.37775 38.98721 -5".'2i087"""-27."6"9521 -29. 50462 " 49. 65704 "" 46.2 7448" X 27 5.32164 -7.60203 6.37559 20.62776 13.60258 8.84520 13.65486 40.21330 37.69576 15.61508 -19.57 533-19 .91772 X 28 2.22647 -3.77506 3.34064 -4.91279 7.72188 -0.10149 4.58032 -60.03760 -70.10875 -45.85225 72 .62209 67.41328 "X~29 10.48061 -5.5 7049 12.34096 15.23450 33. 14.381 12.63275 33.24492 -53.15121 -72.69160 -48.60353 120.29169 1 14.03812 X 30 -5.59431 7.30653 9.73481 -4.98594 -5.68503 -4.78657 0.99769 18.68730 19.53363 8.51996 19.25858 21.81993 X 31 6.71826 -4.02918 9.53766 18.37349 15.55649 7.44856 24.04919 19.38080 13.34236 8.71720 12.68611 12.15901 "x~32 4786733 1742320 3.7C595 """ 2.06514 1I7T30T3 3."47960~" -lT.'61643^ 46.41 995""""50.48433 ~ X 13 X 14 X 15 X 16 . X 17 X 18 X 19 X 20 X 21 X 22 X 23 X 24 X 13 0.00001 X 14 -0.00151 -43.35397 X 15 -0.00243 -3.67477 -5.84342 ' • ' . - '  X 16 0.00053 23.27823 -4.C8453 -78.78308 X 17 0.00122 30.30118 9.23602 -34.78764 -79.37453 X 13 -0.00111 0.09122 9.29808 30.95329 -49.52834 -86.51311 . • .  X~T9 0.00397 16.455 3 7 -0.35720 -26.06126 0.52095 29.56299 -25.70245 : ' ~ : ! X 20 -0.00045 -2.52695 -1.19712 -4.76667. 17.71806 25.64717-12.01322 -14 .62927 X 21 -0.00296 2 9.3 5776 1.69414 -26. 13014 -12.77893 15.77097 -16.69637 -3.01992 -32.18147 •  X 22 -0.00300 -3.6T742 -2737355 T2.4"7C"58 16.27470 6.88320 6.'49955 -1.0'5"46"2 T.5"0077~=I7727"058 X 23 -0.01129 -43.86655 -4.29934 25.98154 22.73351 -9.20729 20.46040 2.08146 33.18819 -10.02431 -54.75206 X 24 -0.00326 25.50821 -3.13359 -38.29698 -8.40558 26.21623 -20.60017 -6 .00929 -25.42207 6.73447 24.21483 -36.46129 X~25 -0.00775 5.62990 -7.21934 -30.63939 .20.68942 48.43333 -21. 79662 -13.203 13 -21.92374 2.52816 5.48963 -36.07329 X 26 -0.00774 3.50920 -6.97187-20.09418 32.01599 52.17413-19 .20926-15 .46184-18 .92543 -1.11317 5 .36119-29.52383 X 2 7 - 0 . 0 0 3 0 0 -4.61738 -3.06203 -1.54207 22.49757 26.24757 -8.24164 - 8 . 6 3 6 9 0 - 1 . 3 2 5 5 8 - 2 . 8 7 1 6 4 - 3 . 6 6 3 5 5 -6.33529 X 23 0.003C9 "8.73031 -9736T7T -1T730259 -2.480C3~ H .2 332 ft--"8703 524"-2758746 =9.57491"" 0.12759 11.73242 -10.08169" X 29 0.00389 15.15063 0.12360 -22.68518 -0.86424 21.39644 -19.52011 -9.19474 -20.33157 15.61486 22.09512 -25.10976 X 30 -0.0095? 1.37796 -2.85312 -14.73435 -11.59284 -6.20550 0.62057 2.55383 6.46797 1.66050 -7.59613 -5.37434 x T l -0.00258 4.80371 -0. 10897 -3.34163 8.64381 12.599 13 -8 . 17374 -5. 12970 -6. 53259 2.33264 5. 1 1501 -7.44312 X 32 0.00564 5.55299 1.94606 -9.80418 -10.04126 0.06174 -4.78955 -0.06350 -6 .22727 . 5.72053 4.96672 -7.66612 X 25 X 26 X 27 " X~ 2 8 X 29 X 30 X "3'1 X 32" X 25 -64.48055 X 26 -53.53986 -53.42696 C D rO 27 -19794^5? 28 -12.93745 29 30 -0.34396 31 -9^ .13416 32 -3.73357 -^22.09353 -15.03322 -8.33906 -1.84789 31.16895 -25.91542 -7.99389 3.70 33 3 2.5 5045 -13.02319 -6.69367 -6.15237 -1.95443 -8.92305 -7.34750 -34.29852 2.21194 2.55776 -19.44710 1.6C717 -7,82838 1.48464 -2.49693 -8.88007 3.32251 •11.66140. -1.08096-11.02385 REGRESSION EQUATIONS FOR COMPUTING FACTOR SCORES VARIA3LE FACTOR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 , 26 27 2 8 29 30 31 32 1 -0.01917 '0.00154 0.01294 -0.08352 . -0. 11464 0.11292 0.11201 6.10868 -0.12884 0.10658 0.09381 0.12670 0.0 -0.11160 -0.01961 0.14871 -0.12936 0.13811 0.00139 0.03766 -0.04309 0.04258 -0.05301 -0.01446 0.00429 0.03596 -0.08819 -0.02871 0.04034 -0.01126 . -0.00 599 -0.00821 2 0. 16 73 7 -0.06 317 0.06326 -0.1123 3- -0.05135 0.15279 0.06488 0.04205 -0.00527 -0.0563? -0.55436 -0.33539 0.0 -0.075C3 0.01475 -0.04629 0.06845 -0.04103 0.18987 -0.10280 -0.051'+3 -0.06143 • 0.09000 0.01414 -0.04372 0.13982 0.00050 -0.07745 -0.04092 -0.10508 -3.02104 -0.03931 3 -0.00466 -0.09149 0.04213 -0.06755 0.01560 -0.04809 0.09216 0.06240 -0.00994 -0.06662 0.0 8 3'+3 0.01468 0.0 -0.03498 0.07640 -0.04156 0.03340 -0.06382 . O.O1503 0.0C281 0.17706 0.12740 0. 12913 0.12757 -0.17100 -0.06208 0.11296 0. 12275 "" C.14463 0.08827 0.C302 2 0.03093 . 4 -0.01009 0.13313 0. 11801: 0.05186 0.19826 -C.11308 -0.11965 -0.06347 -0.0034 8 0.10471 -0.54292 -0.15317 0.0 -0.02672 • -0.07653 0.04010 -0.02300 0.01894 -0.05953 . 0.00640" 0.0735 5 -0.03739 0.0 309 5 -0.04896 0.00836 -0.01430 -0.00677 0.03483 -0.01645 0.111C8 0.0 748 5 0.18165 FACTOR SCORES ON ROTATED FACTORS FACTOR SU3JECT. F 1 F 2 F 3 F 4 1 " 1.20070 -0.41C05 0.64219 -0.39C46 2 -0.01054 0.05349 0.32902 1.16230 3 -0.12363 -0.04359 1.33338 -1.76480 4 -0.042 79 -0.24272 0.06554 1.37913 5 0. 502 30 -0.32 29 2 -2.41499 -0.07285 A 0.93559 -0.12556 -0.83957 0.05437 7 -0.35737 -0.02562 . 1.45676 0.41755 3 -0.7 3496 0.13255 0.47851 -0.0090 7 9 0.54321 -0.46417 0.83C03 - 1.76264 10 1.54790 0.C3515 0.12791 . -1.C5216 11 0.75581 -0.62040 0.49837 0.14275 12 0.6 39 16 1 .58702 0.14386 -0.10356 13 1.03102 -0.33062 -0.50614 -0.59662 14 -0. 36533- -0.26525 0.91636 -0.70062 15 -1.33761 2.71387 -0.18176 -0.08741 . 16 0.41333 -1.19277 ' 0.62930 0.51144 17 -0.67177 -0.34276 0.82490 1.07561 18 -1. 22553 1 .58907 0.24955 0.64699 19 1.60269 -0.17855 0.41890 -0.84545 20 0.16215 -3.63043 0.18571 -0.C8719 21 -0.04839 -1 .36563 -0.22240 2.53569 ,. 22 -2. 066 14 0.85549 0.14553 -0.67063 23 0.54037 0.05105 0.72969 1.32221 -24 -2.31155 -0.99659 0.74071 -0.43026 25 -0. 8 0c 6 5 -0.36982 0.00811 -1.16847 GO 26 27 28 29 30 v 3 1 n, c = a i c 0.69Z77 -1 75716 -0.3 7fc49 0. 33276 0.39234 -0.66579 0.3)3 26 v » J J u l J -0.92973 -0.54972 0.50522 -0.73480 -1 .13039 1.02220 0.62079 -.1.67024 -2.15518 0.89735 -1.08041 0.44981 1.24358 0.52540 0.45175 32 33 34 0.40636 -0.23292 0.43172 -0.94571 -9.47316 3.02069 -1.67286 -2.21785 -0.10875 . -1.63558 -0.76287 0.85848 -35 36 37 -2. 0 35 31 1.03039 1.0 762 9 -1.23156 1.25324 1.04316 -1.65380 0.14111 0.35786 0.01597 0.03888 . -1.26892 33 39 0.5 92 93 0.39704 0.73760 0.11166 -1.15915 0.30865 -0.37408 0.76439 " • MEANS OF THE FACTORS 0.00000 -0.00C02 0.00001 0.00001 STANDARD DEVIATIONS 1.0C03 7 OF THE FACTORS C.99996 1.00010 0.99992 CORRELATIONS OF THE F 1 F 2 FACTORS F 3 F 4 F 1 1.00000 . F 2 0.00031 1.00000 F 3 -0.00024 0.00039 1.00000 F 4 0.00141 -0.0'00'52 -0.C0CO8 1.00000 STOP 0 ' • • EXECUTION TERMINATED $SIQ oo 85 B-2: M U L T I P L E REGRESSION A N A L Y S I S CONTROL CARD NO. 1 * INMSOC * WARNING- NG. CF FORMAT CARDS KF=0; TRIP EXPECTS UNFORMATTE0 DATA OR USER SUPPLIED TOATA SUBROUTINE; OTHERWISE A PROGRAM INTERRUPT MAY OCCUR 39 OBSERVATIONS TCTAL 38 DEGREES CF. FREEDOM •  NAME VAR1 MEAN 0.179C72D-05 STO.DEV. 1.00087 V A R 2 VAR3 VARA VAR5 -0.1821810-04 0.999960 0.9541610-05 1.CC010 0.952012D-05 0.999925 3.63507 1.62763 CORRELATION MATRIX VARIABLE VAR1 __VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR 5 VAR1 l.OCOO __C. CC03_ -C.C002 C.0014 -0.2207 VAR2 l-COOO O.0CO4 -0.0005 0.7060 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 l.COCO -0.C0C1 0.0464 I.0000 0.1270 1.0000 CONTROL CARD NO. * STPREG * FPR08 LEVEL ACCEPT 0.05CC0 REJECT 0.05001 __5_EPEN0ENT_VARI ABLE IS_ STEP NO. 1 VAR5 RSQ FPRCB. STD ERR Y = 0.4984 _O.CCOO 1.1683" VAR COEFF STO ERR F-RAT10 FPROB. CCNST. VAR2 3.6351 1.1491 0.1871 0.1895' 36.7594 0.0000 POTENTIAL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: PARTIAL CORR. TOLERANCE FPROB VAR1 _VAR3_ VAR4 0.3119 0.0652 0.1798 1.0000 _1.0000_ l.COCO 0.0539 0.6981_ 0.2799 to m NO. OBSERVEO CALCULATED RESIDUAL NO. OBSERVED CALCULATED RESIDUAL 1. . 2. 3. 4.1464 6.6171 5.4910 5.4587 6.7535 5.4611 -1.3123 -0.13645 0.29992E-01 4. 5. 6. 4.9098 6.8652 6.1723 4.6181 7.1061 5.0752 0.29167 -0.22091 1.0971 -7. 8. 9. 5.4463 5.5300 3.4267 3.6965 3.3562 3.6056 1.7498 2.1738 -0.17894 1C. 11. 12. 5.1592 2.C763 2.4261 3.8448 3.1017 2.9222 1.3143 -1.0254 -0.49607 • 13. 14. 15. 0.77011 3.1579 2-2502 2.2645 2.6667 2.91C6 -1.4944 0.49116 -0.66037 16. 17. 18. 2.8859 4.5450 4.1906 2.4105 3.6937 3.0034 0.47538 0.85125 1.1872 19. 20. 21. 0.68057 5.5599 1.0403 2.3356 3.7634 3.1639 -1.6550 1.7965 -2.1236 22. 23. 24. 1.9762 4.0324 2.1576 3.2640 3.4908 3.6410 -1.2879 0.54157 -1.4834 25. 26. 27. 0.78618 2.9080 3.2873 3.1977 3.4299 4.2156 -2.4115 -0.52192 -0.92834 28. 29. 30. 3.4366 3.8698 3.3335 3.3078 2-5484 3.0914 0.12874 1.3215 0-24207 : -31. 32. 33. 4.7714 3.1812 4.3376 4-4826 3.5850 3.3303 C28876 -0.40382 1.0073 , . > . ' • '' ' 34. 35. 36. 3.7323 1.3724 3.9136 2.4899 2.6356 4.2764 1.2424 -1.2631 . -0.36282 37. 38. 39. 4.3993 2.1866 4.7189 2.5668 2.1625 4.8395 1.8326 0.24141E-01 -0.12056 AUTOCORRELATICN COEFF. 0.044 DURE IN—WATSON D STATISTIC 1.880 C O PREDICTED VALUES (VERTICAL AXIS) VS. OBSERVED VALUES OF VAR5 "+•< REPRESENTS POINTS OFF THE GRAPH 6.900 - + 6.900 / I 6.770 /_ ; ; -. • • • 6. 640_ / 6.510 / 6.380 / . ' 6.250 / 6.120 / 5.990 / ; [ : 5.860_ / , 5.730 5.600 - 5.600 / ' • • 1 1 5.470 / • .. ' 5.340 / 5.210 / ' . : . . ' . - 1 : 5.080_ / 4.950 / v 1 4.820 / • . • ' • • : • • ' • '' • - ; • ; 4.690 / 1 4.560 / 1 4.430 4.300 • ' 1 • • ' ;: • • _ 4.300 / 1 4.170 / 4.040 I \ - ' • ' • • • . ; 3.910 / 1 1 3.780 / 1 1 1 I 1 3.650 / •• - • • • • ' . 1 . ' : 3.520 / . . . : • • 1 1 1 "" 3.390 / 1 1 1 3.260 / 1 - 1 1 . - ' • • ; . 3.130 3.COO - 1 3.000 / 1 1 2.870 / ' - • " . ; ; 2.740_ I 1 1 1 1 2.610 / 1 2-480 / i . • i • :• • • ; 2.3,50 / i 1 2.220 / 2.090 / ' ; •' - . . • . 1.960_ / 1.830 1.700 - 1.700 / •_. : • • 1.570 _ = - ; : — : ' ' i . 4 4 o / 1.310 / ; . • • . . ; ^_ 1. 1S0_ / '" i 1.050 / , 0.9200 / . 0.7900 _ . . . : : ; ' ' 0.6600 / 0.5300 0.4C00 _ - _' _ _ 0.4000 77l /////////T///777///1/////////1 / / / / / / > / / 1 / / / / / / / / / ! / / / / / / / / / ! / / / / / / / / / 1 / / / / / / 7 / / I / / / / / / / / / I / / / / / / / / / 1 7 0.4000 1.7C0 3.000 4.300 5.600 6.900 OISTANCE BETWEEN SLASHES ON THE X-AXIS IS 0.6500E-01 ; ; 03 m 89 B-3: GROUPING A N A L Y S I S PROBLEM NAME **** AIR PASSENGER GENERATION,39:0BSERVATI0NStASFACTORS NUPBER C>. SU8JECTS = 39 NUMBER OF VARIABLES = 4 : . - - • . START PRINTING WHEN THERE ARE 10 GROUPS. STANDARDIZATION : NO TREE GRAPH : YES ; . '• CONTIGUITY CONSTRAINT : NO TRANSPOSE DATA MATRIX r YES * SU6JE CT I DENT IF I CAT ION NAPES TO 8E REAP IN : YES  FORMAT: <4F9.5> 38 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 16 IN= 1) £ 31 <N= 1) ERROR 3 0.451412E- 01 CUM = 0.451412E-01 SELECTION VALUE INFINITY 37 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 10 (N= 1) i 19 <N= 1) ERROR = 0.820757E- 01 CUM 0.127217 SELECTION VALUE = 31.0916 ' 36 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 2 (N= 1) 4 t N= 1) ERROR = 0.102609 CUM = 0.229826 SELECTION VALUE = 9.25633 35 GROUPS AFTER CONE IN ING 11 (N= 1) £ 28 (N= 1) ERROR = . 0.126717 CUM = 0.356543 SELECTION VALUE 8.45837 34 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 12 <N= 1) £ 36 <N= 1) ERROR = 0.154570 CUM 0.511113 SELECT ICN VALUE = 7.69318 33 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 9 <N = 1) £ 23 < N= 1) ERROR = 0.234776 CUM = 0.745889 SELECTION VALUE 17.6425 32 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 1 (N= 1) c 10 (N= 2) ERROR = 0.256188 CUM = • I.C0208 SELECTION VALUE = 3.00967 31 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 14 (N=~~ 1) V 27 (N= 1) ERROR 0.298549 CUM = 1.30063 SELECTION VALUE "5.29123 30 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 11 <N = 2) £ 20 (N= 1) ERROR = 0.303100 CUM = 1.60373 SELECTION VALUE = 0.472492 29 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 6 (N= 1) £ 13 (N= 1) ERROR = 0.304563 CUM 1.-90829 SELECTION VALUE 0.144809 28 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 2 IN= 2) £ 39 IN= 1) ERROR = 0.327228 CUM = 2.23552 SELECTION VALUE 2. 15816 27 GRCUPS AFTER CGM81NI NG 3 (N= 1) £ 26 <N= 1) ERROR = 0.492599 CUM = • 2.72811 SELECTION VALUE - 14.1503 26 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 5 (N = 1) £ 33 (N= I ) ERROR 0.539056 CUM = 3.26717 SELECTION VALUE = 2.54635 25 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 11 l.N= 3) £ 16 <N= 2) 'ERROR' 0.631925 CUM 3.89909 SELECTION VALUE ' 4.47930 24 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 7 (N= 1) £ 8 (N= 1) ERROR = . 0.651565 CUM = ' 4.55066 SELECTION VALUE = 0.776992 23 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 14 (N- 2) £ 25 (N= 1) ERROR = 0.843411 CUM = 5.39407 SELECTION VALUE = 7.06652 22 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 2 (N = 3) £ 9 (N= 2) ERROR 0.850891 CUM = 6.24496 SELECTION VALUE = 0.203996 21 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 6 (N= 2) £ 38 (N= 11 ERROR ' = 0.948317 CUM = 7. 19328 SELECTION VALUE = 2.51897 2C GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 5 IN = 2) £ 30 (N= 1) ERROR = 1.04622 CUM = 8.23949 SELECTION VALUE = 2.16794 19 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING" 7 ~iU= 2) 17 <N= T> ERROR 1.09872 CUM = 9.33821 SELECTION VALUE 1.00367 i a GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 15 IN = 1) £ 18 (N= I) ERROR = 1.18259 CUM = 10.5208 SELECTION VALUE = 1.45042 17 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 12 (N= 2) £ 37 (N= 1) ERROR = 1.18645 CUM 11.7073 SELECTION VALUE 0.587014E-01 16 GRCUPS AFTER CCMBINING 15 (N = 2) £ 22 (N= 1) ERROR = 1.92072 CUM 13.6280 SELECTION VALUE - 10.5210 15 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 3 (N= 2) s 14 IN= 3) ERROR = 1.98947 CUM = 15.6174 SELECTION VALUE 0.572681 14 GRCUPS AFTER CCMBINING 5 (N = 3) c 29 (N= 1) . ERROR 2-39222 CUM = 18.0097 SELECTION VALUE = 3.03662 13 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 2 <N = 5) £ 21 (N= 1) ERROR = 2.57114 CUM = 20.5808 SELECTION VALUE 1.04710 12 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 7 (N= 3) £ 11 (N= 5) ERROR = 2.78687 CUM = 23.3677 SELECTION VALUE = 1.09073 11 GRCUPS AFTER COMBINING 6 (N= 3) £ 32 IN= 1) ERROR = 2.81072 CUM = 26.1784 SELECTION VALUE = 0.102718 10 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 24 tN = 1) 35 (N= I) ERROR = 3.32710 CUM — 29.505 5 SELECTION VALUE - 2.02090 GROUP N= MEM BE R S I 2 3 3 6 5 8RAN" CALG CHAR KELO EDMO MONC PENT KAML LOUP PRGO SAJO REGI ST JO WPEG 5 6 7 4 4 8 F L I N FfcIL FRCE MAR I MEOI HAL I SDBR GLBY LETH TIMI WSOR _NOBA_ NOBY PRAL SATN SWCU 12 15 24 3 3 2 LOND MONT RIMO VANC " OTTA VAOR VICT" OUBE 9 GROUP GROUPS AFTER CCMBINING N= MEMBERS 12 (N = 3) £ 34 (N= I) ERROR = 3.75038 CUM = 33.2559 SELECTION VALUE » 1.27222 1 2 3 3 6 5 BRAN CALG CHAR KELO EOMO MONC PENT KA"L LOUP PRGO SAJO REGI STJO WPEG ID O 5 4 F U N MAR I SD8R TlMl ~~ : " • . " 6 4 FWIL MED I GLBY WSOR 7 8 FRCE HAL I L E T H NOBA NOBY PRAL SATN SWCU 12 4 . LCND TCRO VANC V I C T 15 3" . NCNT OTTA .QU8E 24 2 RIMO VAOR : . ' ' • •  8 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 1 <N= 3 ) £ 6 (N= 4) ERROR = 4 . 5 0 6 1 1 CUM = 3 7 . 7 6 2 0 S E L E C T I O N V A L U E = 1 . 8 1 3 5 7 GRCUP N - MEMBERS ; ' • • • ' V- ; : 1 7 BRAN FWIL KELO MEDI PE'NT GLBY WSOR 2 6 CALG EDMO KAML PRGO REGI WPEG 3 5 CHAR MONC LCUP S A J 0 S T J O ] \ • • • : \ 5 4 F L I N MARI SDBR T I MI , 7 8 FRDE HAL I L E T H NOBA NOBY PRAL SATN SWCU " 1 2 _ 4 LCND TORO VANC V I C T ; ; ; ._. : ._ 1 15 3 MONT OTTA QUSE . 24 2 RIMO VAOR 7 GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 2 (N= 6 ) G 7 (N= 8) ERROR = 5 . 2 6 2 6 2 CUM = 4 3 . 0 2 4 6 S E L E C T I O N V A L U E = 1.34307 GROUP N= MEMBERS 1 7 BRAN FWIL KELO MEDI PENT GLBY WSOR ' • ' . L 2 14 CALG EDMO FRDE HAL I KAML L E T H NOBA NOBY PRAL PRGO REGI SATN SWCU WPEG 3 5 CHAR MCNC LOUP S A J O S T J O 5 4 F L I N MARI SDBR T I M I ; : ' / - • • • - ' 12 4 LCND TORO VANC V I C T 15 3 MONT OTTA QUSE 24 2 RI MO VAOR. . ' ' •  6 GROUPS A F T E R COMBINING 3 <N= 5) £ 24 (N= 2) ERROR = 1 0 . 4 4 9 1 CUM = 5 3 . 4 7 3 7 S E L E C T I O N V A L U E = 6 . 8 9 8 7 1 GROUP N= MEMBERS 1 7 2 14 3 7 BRAN CALG CHAR FWIL EDMO MONC KELO FRDE RIMO MED I H A L I LOUP PENT KAML .SAJO GLBY L E T H . STJO_ WSOR NOBA NOBY PRAL VAOR PRGO REG I SATN SWCU WPEG 5 4 12. 4 15 3 F L I N LCND MCNT MARI TORO OTTA SDBR VANC QU8E T I M I V I C T 5 GROUPS A F T E R COMBINING GROUP N= MEMBERS 12 t N = 4) C 15 <N= 3 ) ERROR - 1 0 . 7 0 3 8 CUM = 6 4 . 1 7 7 4 S E L E C T I O N V A L U E = 0.146246 1 7 2 14 3 7 BRAN CALG CHAR FWIL EDMO MCNC KELO FRDE RIMO MEOI H A L I LCUP P E N T KAML S A J O GLBY L E T H S T J O WSOR NOBA NOBY P R A L . VAOR PRGO R E G I SATN SWCU WPEG 5 4 12 7 F L I N LCND MARI MONT SDBR OTTA T I M I CUBE TORO VANC V I C T 4 GROUPS A F T E R COMBINING 1 (N= 7 ) C 5 IN= 4 ) ERROR = 1 2 . 6 4 3 5 CUM = 7 6 . 8 2 1 0 S E L E C T I O N V A L U E = " 0T906110" GROUP N= MEMBERS 1 11 BRAN F L I N FWIL K E L O MEDI PENT MARI SOBR GLBY • T I M I WSOR - 2 14 . CALG EDMO FRDE H A L I KAML L E T H NOBA NOBY. PRAL PRGO R E G I SATN SWCU WPEG 3 7 CHAR MONC RIMO L C U P S A J O S T J O - VAOR 12 7 LO ND MCN T 0 T T A CUBE TORO VANC V I C T ' • , 3 GROUPS A F T E R COMBINING 2 (N= 14) C 3 IN= 7 ) ERROR = 2 1 . 7 6 3 5 CUM = 9 8 . 5 8 4 5 S E L E C T I O N V A L U E = 2 . 8 8 5 2 6 GROUP N= MEMBERS  1 11 BRAN F L I N FWIL K E L O MEDI PENT MARI SDBR GLBY . T I M I WSOR 2 21 CALG CHAR EDMO FRDE H A L I KAML L E T H MONC NOBA NOBY PRAL PRGO REGI RIMO LOUP S A J O S T J O SATN SWCU VAOR WPEG _ _ _ • [ . • . 12 7 "LCND ' MCNT OTTA CUBE TORO VANC V I C T 2 GROUPS A F T E R COMBINING 1 IN» 1 1 ) G 12 (N= 7 ) ERROR ° 2 5 . 3 2 8 9 CUM - 1 2 3 . 9 1 3 S E L E C T I O N V A L U E " 0 . 4 9 1 4 7 0 GROUP N= 1 18 2 21 MEMBERS BRAN FUN FWIL KELO LOND MEOI MONT OTTA PENT QUBE MAR I SD3R GLBY TIMI TORO VANC VICT WSOR CALG CHAR EDMO FROE HALI KAML LETH MONC NOBA NOBY PRAL PRGO REGI RIMO LOUP SAJO ST JO SATN SWCU VAOR WPEG 1. GROUPS AFTER COMBINING 1 <N= 18) 5 2 (N= 21) ERROR 28.1505 CUM 152.064 SELECTION VALUE = 0.222797 GROUP N= MEMBERS 1 39 BRAN CALG CHAR EOMO PRGO QUBE REGI RIMO FL IN FWIL LOUP SAJO FRDE HAL I KAML STJO SATN MART KELO LETH LOND MEDI SDBR SWCU GLBY TIMI MONC MONT NOBA NPBY OTTA PENT PRAL TORO VAOR VANC VICT WSOR WPEG A O NO ITEMS GROUPED 1 13 33 3 6 18 39 7 28 3 25 10 38 30 3 7 22 9 8 2 0 26 24 S T E P I J ERROR 19 32 29 3 4 2 2 3 1 7 16 14 35 * 6 5 12 15 4 21 11 31 27 1 16 31 C.04514119 * 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M I N I M I 1 1 1 1 I I l_M M I I I I 2 10 19 0.08207572 * ! I_! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.1 i l l 1 I I 1 1 I I 1 * 3 2 4 C.10260868 4 1 J L L J 1 1. L !_] 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! _ M 1 1 T I 11 1 1 I I 1 M M * 4 11 28 0.12671709 * 1 1 > 1 1 I 1 1 M i l l 1 I I I I I I J 1 1 I t 1 I I I I * 5 12 36 0.15457016 • 1 I I I I 1 1 1 1 !_! M i l l I I I I I 1 1 1 1 I I 1 I I I I * 6 9 23 0.23477626 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M M 1 1 I I 1 I I 1 1 1 I I I I I I 1 * 7 1 10 0.25618839 * l _ J 1 1 1 1 I I I 1 M i l l 1 J 1 1 1 1 1 I I M I I I I 1 * 8 14 27 0.29854935 * 1 I l l 1 1 1 j j M i l l 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I.I 1 I I * 9 11 20 C.30309975 * 1 I.I .1 1 1 ] | M i l l 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 — 1 1 I I 1 1 I I 1C 6 13 0.30456281 1 l_l 1 1 t 1 I | M i l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 : i i r i "i r i i * 11 2 39 0.32722819 1 I I 1 1 I I | M i l l 1__1 1 1 1 1 i I I I i I I I * 12 3 26 0.49259931 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 | | M i l l 1 1 1 1 1 i i I_I i i i t * 13 5 33 0.53905594 * 1 1 1 1-1 1 | j I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i i i i I I 14. 11 16 0.63192499 * I I I 1 1 j j I I 1 I I 1 -1 1 I I i i i i I I i 15 7 8 C.65156502 * 1 1 1 1 1 J _ J L _ I I I I 1 1 1 LJL-J- i i i I I i * 16 14 25 0.S4341079 1 1 1 1 1 M i l l 1 r i i i__i i i 17 2 9 0.85089135 I I I I . 1 1 i j M i l l 1 i I 1 i i I M * • 18 6 38 0.94831729 * I 1 1 1 1 j i M i l l 1 I 1 i i I I I * 19 5 30 1.04621696 * I | 1 1 i i M i l l 1 1 | •i i i i i • * 20 7 17 1.09871960 * 1 1 1 i j 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 i i I M * 21 15 18 1.18259335 j j 1 j i 1 1 l_l 1 1 i "T i i I M * 22 12 37 1.18645000 * 1 1 1 i i I I 1 I 1 i i I I I M * -23 15 22 1.92072201 1 1 . 1 i i 1 l__l 1 i i r i i i i * 24 3 14 1.98946953 1 I 1 j j 1 1 1 i i i i I M * 25 5 29 2.39222050 1 1 I_ j i I I J i l i i I I 26 2 21 2.57114220 * j j I 1 l_ „ i i i i i i • * 27 7 11 2.78686714 * I I 1 1 i . _ i I I I * 28 6 32 2.81072235 * | 1 j | i i I I * 29. 24 35 3.32710361 * i ~T j j i i I_I * 30 12 34 3.75038338 * i i 1 1 i i i * 31 1 6 4.5C611305 * i I 1 1 i i i 32 2 7 5.26261902 * i 1 1 _______ __i i i * 33 3 24 10.'4490900 * i M 1 i i * 34 12 15 10.7037792 * i I 1 i i 35 1 5 12.6435385 * i_ ! •, i i 36 2 3 21.7635040 * 1 1 i _ . ••• i * 37 1 12 25.3288727 * L 1 i * 38 1 2 28.1504669 * i i i * * * * * * * * * :* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *~ * *'* * * * *"* * 94 B-4: M U L T I P L E REGRESSION A N A L Y S I S FOR GROUP I CONTROL CARD NO. 1 * INMSDC * WARNING^  NO. CF FORMAT CARDS KF=0; . TRIP EXPECTS UNFORMATTE0 OATA OR USER SUPPLIED TOATA SUBROUTINE ? OTHERWISE A PROGRAM INTERRUPT MAY OCCUR 7 OBSERVATIONS TOTAL 6. DEGREES OF-FREEDOM. NAME MEAN STD.CEV. VARl 1.05967 0.447787 ._ . VAR2 -0.185391 0.5C9659 VA R 3 -0.426960 0.859392 VAR4 _-C.762854_ 0.534647 • . VAR5 2.79509 1.53439 CORRELATION MATRIX ' • - • ' VARIABLE VARl VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VARl l.CCOO VAR2 C.C891 l.CCOC ' • • ' ' - VAR3 C.8943 0.0508 l.COOO VAR4 C.0885 0.6189 0.0310 1.0000 . VAR 5 -0.5472 0.3723 -0.6663 0.1842 1.0000 CONTROL CARO NO. 2 * STPREG *. FPROB LEVEL ACCEPT REJECT O.C50CO 0.050C1 DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS VAR5 STEP. NO. 1 * RSQ = 0.4440 FPRCB. = 0.1008 ST"0" ERR Y = 1.2533 VAR COEFF STD ERR F-RATIO FPROB. CCNST. 2.2871 0.5376 VAR3 -1.1897 0.5954 3.9928 0.1008 POTENTIAL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: PARTIAL CORR. TOLERANCE FPROB VARl 0.1459 0.2002 VAR2 0.5454 0.9974 0.7716 0^ 2630 VAR4 0.2749 0.9990 0.6007 STEP NO. 2 ALL POTENTIAL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES FOUND TO BE NON-SIGNIFICANT AT INDICATED PERCENTAGE LEVELS * END OF CONTROL SET • vg 96 B-5; M U L T I P L E REGRESSION A N A L Y S I S FOR GROUP I I CONTROL CARO NO. 1 * INMSDC * WARNING^  NC. CF FORMAT CARDS KF=0; TRIP EXPECTS UNFORMATTED DATA OR USER SUPPLIED TDATA SUBROUTINE; OTHERWISE A PROGRAM INTERRUPT MAY OCCUR 14 OBSERVATIONS TOTAL 13 DEGREES OF FREEDOM NAME VARl MEAN 0.119472 STD.DEV. 0.450729 VA R 2 VAR3 VARA -0.454747 0.545159 0.848500 C.485424 0.413147 0.737463 VAR5 3.43605 1.68841 CORRELATION MATRIX VARIABLE VARl VAR 2 VARl l.CCOO -C. 1888 VAR2 VAR3 l.CCOO . VAR4 VAR5 VAR 3 VARA VAR5 -C.0686 C.0285 -0.3062 0.0835 1.0000 -0.1201 -0.3410 0.8367 -0.2831 1.0000 . 0.1170 1.0000 CONTROL CARD NO. 2 * STPREG * FPROB LEVEL '. • . " ACCEPT REJECT 0.05CC0 0.05001 : • . ' -CEPENDENTVARIA BLE IS VAR5 STEP- NO. 1 RSQ FPROB. 0.7001 0.0002 STC ERR Y = 0.9624 VAR CCEFF STD ERR F-RATIO FPROB. CCNST. VAR2 4.7595 2.91C3 0.3587 0.5498 28.0155 0.0002 POTENTIAL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES t PARTIAL CORR. TOLERANCE FPROB VARl 0. VAR3 0. 2756 6468 0. 0. 9643 9930 0.3649 0-0163 VAR4 0. 4000 0. 9856 0.1731 STEP NO. 2 RSQ 0-8256 FPROB. = O.C001 STD ERR Y = 0.7666 _ VAR CONST. MAR2 VAR3 CCEr-h 5.5983 3.0136 -1.4525 0.4130 0.4395 0.5164 47.0035 7.9111 0.0000 0.0163 POTENTIAL INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: PARTIAL CORR. TOLERANCE FPROB VAR1 VAR4 0.4077 0.2555 0.9615 0.8753 0.1861 0.4273 v O C O NG. OBSERVED CALCULATED RESIDUAL NO. OBSERVED CALCULATED RESIDUAL 1. 5.4463 5.2816 . 0.16473 K . 2. 5.5300 4.7717 0.75828 . 3. 3.4267 3.4051 0.21581E-01 4. 5.1592 5.4534 -0.29424 5. 2.0763 2.9939 -0.91756 6. 2.4261 3.0048 -0.57868 7. 0.77011 1.0897 -6.31963 8. 3.1579 1.8604 1.2974 9. 2^_2_5_02 3.42 86 -1.1783 10. 2.8859 2.7099 0.17605 11. 4.5450 4.6923 -0.14728 12. 4.1906 3.0400 1.1506 13. 0.68057 0.88686 -0.20629 14; 5.5599 5.4865 0.73365E-01 AUTCCORREL AT I CN COEFF. -0.230  DURBIN-WATSCN D STATISTIC 2.452 PREDICTED VALUES (VERTICAL AXIS) VS. OBSERVED VALUES OF VAR5 REPRESENTS POINTS OFF THE GRAPH 5.600 - 5.600 / 1 , 1 5.500 / ; ; . . ; __ 5.400 / 1 5.300 ~ / 5.200 / 5.100 / , 5.000 / 4.-900 l . . i l 4 . e o o _ / 1 4.700 4.600 - 4.600 / ' • ; ; 4.500 / 4.400 / .. 4.300 / _ ; ' _____ • 4.200 / . "4.100 / 4.000 / ; ' i •_ 3.900 / 3.800 / 3.700 3.600 - : \ •' ' • ; __ _ 3.600 7 • 3 > 5 0 0 / 1 1 3.400 / ; ' • ' ; ' . . ' , . ' 3.300 / 3.200 / 3.100 / ; I I . l * 3.000 / . . 2.900 / 2.800 / 1 • ' • 2.700 2.600 - 2.600 I 2.500 / ; : 2.400' • / 2.300" / 2.200 I ; 2. 100 / 2.000 / 1 1.900 / ••. • ; 1.800 / r - • . "1.700 1.600 - 1.600 / : ; ; • 1.500 / 1.400 / 1.300 / ; . i 1.200 _ / 1 " 1.100 / 1.000 / 1 . 0.9000 / 0.8000 / '' . 0.7000 0.6COO - : _^ _ _ 0.6000_ 7/17///////"/1 / ////////'I//////// /1 /////////1/////////I /////////1 /////////1 /////////1 //"//7//V/I77/777/771 " . 0.6C00 1.600 2.600 3.600 4.600 5.600 DISTANCE BETWEEN SLASHES ON THE X-AXIS IS 0.5000E-01 

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