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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Family mobility and educational planning Skogstad, Judy Lee 1973

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FAMILY MOBILITY AND EDUCATIONAL PLANNING by JUDY LEE SKOGSTAD B.Ed., University of Alberta, 1968 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the School of Community and Regional Planning We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May, 1973 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s representatives. It i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of The University of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date ~?y?a ABSTRACT Mo b i l i t y and increasing urbanization have resulted i n a pattern of d i f f e r e n t i a l growth rates among school enrollments. This has necessitated that educational planners develop an understanding of family mobility i n order to better predict student populations and maximize the use of e x i s t i n g school f a c i l i t i e s . In the past, such predictions have not usually incorporated factors which account f o r changes i n the separate components of population. An examination of elementary school enrollments i n Vancouver evidenced the need f o r a more de t a i l e d understanding of migration. The present study set out to e s t a b l i s h the impact which various migration patterns exerted on elementary enrollments i n the Vancouver School D i s t r i c t and 'in three areas within the school d i s t r i c t , which i l l u s t r a t e d d i f f e r e n t migration patterns. Secondly, the reasons why f a m i l i e s with elementary school c h i l d r e n move into and out of s p e c i f i c school areas i n the c i t y were analyzed from data c o l l e c t e d by means of a questionnaire. A chi-square t e s t was used to e s t a b l i s h the significance of differences i n the-responses of each group. The migration streams d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n i i i terms of the reasons stated f o r moving and the f a c t o r s of importance i n the choice of a new home. S i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the l a t t e r were mostly r e f l e c t e d i n school areas characterized by d i f f e r e n t migration streams. The study demonstrated that educational planners should be aware of the migration patterns a f f e c t i n g each school area i n t h e i r d i s t r i c t i n order that they may c a l c u l a t e , and wherever possible,influence the impact of changes i n any f a c t o r s which influence mobility. i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER I: OVERVIEW OF THE PROBLEM 7 I. Impact of Migration on Populations Within the Metropolitan area 7 I I . Methods f o r Projecting Student Populations 10 I I I . Vancouver as a Case Study 13 A. The Necessity of Analyzing the Separate Components of Population Change .13 B. Problems Associated with the Projection of Student Populations and Net Migration Levels 20 CHAPTER I I : THEORIES OF MIGRATION 24 I. Introduction 24 I I . Reasons f o r Movement and Factors Important i n the Choice of a Residence...25 A. Movement Within the Metropolitan Environment 25 1. General Theories of Intra-Metropolitan Migration 25 2. S p e c i f i c Theories of Intra-Metropolitan Migration 26 a. Changes i n Socio-Economic Status 26 b. Li f e - C y c l e Changes 27 B. Movement into Metropolitan Areas from Outside Areas 33 1. Movement from Outside Areas Vvithin the Same Country .34 a. Economic Reasons 34 b. Non-Economic Reasons 36 2. Households Moving from Other Countries... 36 I I I . Summary .. ..33 Page CHAPTER I I I : METHODOLOGY 40 I . Development of Hypotheses 40 A. Hypotheses Related to the Migration Streams 40 1 . Hypotheses Related to the Decision to Move 40 2 . Hypotheses Related to the Choice of a Residence 43 B. Hypotheses Related to S p e c i f i c School Areas 44 I I . Testing of the Hypotheses 46 A. The Basis for the Sample 46 B. The Sample 55 C. Returns of the Questionnaire 56 CHAPTER IV: SURVEY RESULTS 62 I . Hypotheses Related to Reasons f o r Out-Migration from Di f f e r e n t Origins into C i t y School Areas 62 I I . Hypotheses Related to Choice of a Residence 68 I I I . Hypotheses Related to School Areas 73 A. Hypotheses Related to the Choice of a Residence 73 B. Hypothesis Related to Reasons f o r Out-Migration 80 IV. An Examination of Other S i g n i f i c a n t Differences Among Migration Streams and Among School Areas 81 A. Demographic Variables 82 B. Socio-Economic Variables 84 C. Housing Variables 85 CHAPTER V: DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 89 I . Limitations of the Sample 89 I I . Comparison of Results of Survey f o r Migration Streams with Results for School Areas 91 Page CHAPTER VI: IMPLICATIONS FOR PLANNING 95 I. The Prediction of Student Enrollments....95 I I . The Shaping of Migration Streams 102 I I I . The Adaptation of Educational Plans to Meet the E f f e c t s of Migration 104 IV. Summary 105 BIBLIOGRAPHY... 107 APPENDIX A... I l l APPENDIX B 114 APPENDIX C... 116 v i LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 E f f e c t of Dif f e r e n t Factors on the Enrollment i n Elementary Schools i n Vancouver City 14 2 Actual Enrollment i n Vancouver City Elementary Grades 1969 et Seq. Showing Percentage Continuation From Previous Grade IS 3 Comparison of Predicted and Actual Elementary Enrollment and Retention Ratios f o r 1971 i n the Vancouver School D i s t r i c t 19 4 Proportion of Tot a l Transfers i n Each School Area, Subdivided by Origin and Destination, Vancouver City, 1970-71. 54 5 Proportion of Total Transfers Sampled i n Each School Area, Subdivided by Origin and Destination, Vancouver City, Sept. 1, 1971 to Feb. 10, 1973 57 6 Proportion of Total Transfers Responding to Questionnaire i n Each School Area, Subdivided by Origin and Destination, Vancouver City, Sept. 1, 1971 to Feb. 10, 1973 59 7 Proportion of Total Transfers, Total Sample, - and Total Responses, Represented by Each Migration Stream 60 8 Features Which Were S i g n i f i c a n t l y D i f f e r e n t i n Contributing to the Migration of Families From Different Orieins into Areas i n Vancouver City 66 9 Features Which Were of S i g n i f i c a n t l y D i f f e r e n t Importance i n Contributing to the Choice of a Home by Families from Different Origins.. 69 10 Residential Features Considered Important by More Than 50fr of Families from D i f f e r e n t Origins i n the Choice of Their Home 74 11 Features Important i n the Choice of a Home Which Varied S i g n i f i c a n t l y Between School Areas Characterized by Dif f e r e n t Migration Streams.... 76 v i i Table Page -12 Residential Features Considered Important by More Than 50% of Families Migrating in t o School Areas Characterized by Different Migration Streams 79 V l l LIST OF MAPS Map Page I Mobile School Areas 49 I I Stable School Areas 50 III School Areas Sampled 52 i x LIST OF DIAGRAMS Diagram Page 1 M i g r a t i o n Streams A f f e c t i n g S c h o o l E n r o l l m e n t s i n Vancouver C i t y 62 X LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Elementary Schools i n Vancouver City, Net Changes i n Enrollment Due to Changes i n B i r t h Rates and Net Migration 15 INTRODUCTION D i f f e r e n t i a l growth rates of student populations within d i f f e r e n t sections of the metropolitan area, l a r g e l y the product of migration, have created a number of problems f o r planners of elementary educational f a c i l i t i e s . Migration has fluctuated from year to year, making predictions d i f f i c u l t . In the past, educational planners have usually assumed that migration would continue unchanged. The student population projection techniques employed have consequently not included any means of analyzing migration or changes i n i t . Net movements of students from one school area to another have caused imbalances i n the demand f o r e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s . Classrooms i n some sections of the c i t y have been underutilized, whereas, elsewhere, there has been a demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l educational f a c i l i t i e s . Net losses of students v i a migration from an entir e school d i s t r i c t have, i n the case of Vancouver City, been associated with an increase i n the per p u p i l costs of education. According to one school board member, administrative and maintenance costs have not decreased i n proportion to the net decrease 1 0 2 i n the number of students due to migration. The student population determines the p r o v i n c i a l grants to a l o c a l school board. The purpose of t h i s thesis was to examine the fac t o r s a f f e c t i n g the movement of f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t areas of o r i g i n into Vancouver C i t y school areas and within the c i t y . This involved an analysis of the reasons f o r the movement of fa m i l i e s and of the r e s i d e n t i a l features considered important i n the choice of a home. Three migration streams were studied: movement from areas outside the metropolitan area into Vancouver C i t y ; movement from the Lower Mainland (Metropolitan Vancouver exclusive of Vancouver City) into Vancouver Cit y ; and, movement within Vancouver C i t y . Families moving from Vancouver City to the Lower Mainland were sampled, but the number of responses was too small to allow a separate analysis of t h i s migration stream. Families moving from areas within the c i t y to areas outside Metropolitan Vancouver were not sampled as t h e i r addresses were too d i f f i c u l t to obtain. In addition to an examination of the factors a f f e c t i n g the movement of fa m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s into Vancouver City areas, the thesis involved an analysis 3 i n single school areas of the reasons f o r moving out and the r e s i d e n t i a l features considered important i n the choice of a home. This analysis was performed on school areas characterized by d i f f e r e n t migration streams: Lord Roberts (the West End), characterized by a migration of f a m i l i e s from areas outside Metropolitan Vancouver; Lord Kitchener (the Dunbar area), by a migration of f a m i l i e s from other areas i n the c i t y ; and Lord Tennyson (East K i t s i l a n o ) , by a migration of f a m i l i e s to other areas i n Vancouver C i t y . A questionnaire was mailed to families who had moved eithe r into or out of the three school areas over a two and one-half year period. The questionnaire was designed to determine the reasons for moving and features important i n the choice of a residence f o r the d i f f e r e n t migration streams, and for f a m i l i e s moving i n and out of the three school areas which were sampled. Additional f a c t o r s , such as housing type and tenure, socio-economic and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were explored f o r both migration streams and the school areas. The study depicted s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t reasons f o r the movement of fa m i l i e s from various o r i g i n s into c i t y school areas, and s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the features considered important i n the choice of a 4 residence by f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s . There were also s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the importance attached to s p e c i f i c r e s i d e n t i a l features among school areas characterized by d i f f e r e n t migration streams. The features which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the three school areas sampled were often the -same -as those which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the migration streams which characterized the school areas. However, there were others which were not. The s i g n i f i c a n t differences found among the migration streams i n respect of the reasons f o r moving and the features important i n the choice of a residence indicate that planners of educational f a c i l i t i e s should take a more comprehensive approach to the pr e d i c t i o n of student populations, incorporating i n t h e i r predictions the f a c t o r s which a f f e c t migration patterns. I t i s important that an analysis of such fac t o r s be done on a school area basis as the survey r e s u l t s depicted s i g n i f i c a n t differences among school areas which did not correspond with the migration streams characterizing them, and vice versa. In order to incorporate i n t o the pr e d i c t i o n of school enrollments the r e s i d e n t i a l features contributing to the migration into and out of some school areas of fa m i l i e s with elementary school age children, school planners w i l l have to c a l i b r a t e the features which were s p e c i f i e d by the respondents to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y important. 5 The f a c t o r s which contribute to the out-migration of f a m i l i e s from s p e c i f i c school areas and from the entire school d i s t r i c t are the means by which the educational planner can shape migration streams. Although the educational planner i s not delegated the power to suggest zoning, deal d i r e c t l y with t r a f f i c problems, or implement programs, f o r example, i t i s e s s e n t i a l that he has a voice i n the decision to implement such p o l i c i e s and programs, which have an impact on student population l e v e l s . Organization of the Study The study consists of four parts: Chapter I, a p o r t r a y a l of migration and i t s impact on student e n r o l l -ments; Chapter I I , a l i t e r a t u r e survey of the theories of migration; Chapter I I I , the methodology of the study; Chapters IV, V,' and VI, survey r e s u l t s , discussion of r e s u l t s and implications f o r planning. Chapter I deals with the impact which migration has had on Canadian c i t y populations, and more p a r t i c u l a r l y , with the problems which t h i s has created i n planning educational f a c i l i t i e s . The methods used by educational planners to project student populations are delineated,, and the inadequacies of these methods i n dealing with migration are noted. Vancouver C i t y i s used to demonstrate the necessity of analyzing migration before projecting student populations and the problems which migration has created f o r planners of elementary school f a c i l i t i e s . 6 Chapter II i s a synthesis of what other studies have depicted to be the reasons f o r movement of f a m i l i e s from various or i g i n s i n t o c i t y areas, and the factors which they consider important i n t h e i r choice of a residence. In Chapter I I I the hypotheses to be tested are delineated, as well as the means for t e s t i n g the hypotheses. The basis f o r the sample and problems i n sampling are discussed. In addition, the extent to which the responses are representative of the sample and the migration c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the school areas are presented. Chapter IV deals with the survey r e s u l t s : the reasons why f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t areas of o r i g i n moved from t h e i r previous residences, and the features important i n t h e i r choice of a home; the reasons why f a m i l i e s moved from s p e c i f i c school areas, and the features considered important i n the choice of a home by f a m i l i e s moving into s p e c i f i c school areas. The r e s u l t s of the study are discussed i n Chapter V, and are portrayed to be possibly s p e c i f i c to t h i s samole. A comoarison i s made between the school areas and the migration streams i n resnect of the reasons f o r moving and the features important i n the choice of a residence. The implications of the r e s u l t s f o r planning of elementary school f a c i l i t i e s are discussed i n Chapter VI. CHAPTER I: OVERVIEW OF THE PROBLEM I. Impact of Migration on Populations Within the  Metropolitan Area One of the most important problems fac i n g educational planners i s that of matching f a c i l i t i e s to the requirements of students. With an increase i n urbanization, the problem has become increasingly d i f f i c u l t to manage. Associated with urbanization have been rapid increases i n student populations i n metropolitan areas, and more importantly, d i f f e r e n t i a l growth rates of student populations within d i f f e r e n t areas of the metropolitan'environment. These changes have necessitated that educational planners understand the s p e c i f i c components of population growth, and the manner i n which these components a f f e c t , and are affected by, the urban environment. Migration has a great impact on the growth rates of metropolitan areas. An analysis of the l a t e s t a v a i l a b l e census data for Canada indicates that between 1951 and 1961, net migration accounted f o r over 60 percent of the population growth i n Calgary, Vancouver, and V i c t o r i a (Stone, 1967). I t also contributed to greater growth rates f o r suburban areas than f o r other parts of the metropolitan areas. Stone states that 8 n86 percent of the d i f f e r e n t i a l i n population growth between the c e n t r a l c i t i e s and the remainder of the... MAs may be attributed to the d i r e c t impact of net migration** (Stone, 1967, p. 159). Educational planners are also interested i n the varying age structure of the population i n various parts of those metropolitan areas which are characterized by d i f f e r e n t i a l growth rates. For example, i n the years 1951-61, the net migration gains to the c e n t r a l c i t y were highest i n the age group characterized by recently married or single persons (20 to 24 years). On the other hand, the net migration gains to the remainder of the metropolitan areas were concentrated among those age groups weighted with f a m i l i e s having young childre n (24 to 29 years). Stone a t t r i b u t e d these changes i n the composition of the urban population to.the increasing tendency f o r migration to be i n t o locations outside the c e n t r a l c i t y , and to the increasing tendency of f a m i l i e s with young childre n to re-locate i n the suburbs. The r e s u l t s of a study of net migration within Metropolitan Toronto have reinforced Stone's findings (Simmons, 1971). A n analysis of the age and sex c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of people moving from one census t r a c t to another over a f i f t e e n year period demonstrated a tendency f o r those migrating into the c i t y to be young (15 to 19), 9 and to s e t t l e i n apartment areas of the c e n t r a l c i t y . Increases of 200-300 percent i n the population of the apartment area i n the c e n t r a l c i t y were noted. Older people, however, tended to move from the c e n t r a l c i t y to the suburban areas. Out-migration to the suburban areas began with the 20 to 24 age group and continued f o r the 25 to 29, and 30 to 34 age groups. Of the three age categories, the l a s t showed the strongest movement to the suburban areas. Variations i n the strength and age-structures of migration streams have upset attempts to match educational f a c i l i t i e s to the needs of students. In Calgary, f o r example, migration to the suburban areas, i n conjunction with a d e c l i n i n g b i r t h rate, has resulted i n i n s u f f i c i e n t classroom space i n the suburbs and excessive space i n the c i t i e s . nTo avoid the expensive construction of new schools i n outlying areas...the c i t y ' s board of education has made contr o v e r s i a l proposal to bus childr e n i n t o the r a p i d l y emptying classrooms of the inner c i t y . The c i t y schools have too much space because of a d e c l i n i n g b i r t h rate and a migration to the suburbs. At l a s t count, the c i t y ' s 150 elementary, junior hierh and high schools had closed more than 400 vacant classrooms, some of which might never be used again 1* (Dennett, 1973, p. 5). Similar problems have been encountered by the C i t y of Edmonton and the City of Vancouver (Dennett, 1973, p.5; Cole, 1972, p. 1). 10 I I . Methods for Projecting Student Populations Although migration has a great impact on the growth rates and population patterns of urban areas, i t has tended to be either ignored or dealt with i n a s i m p l i s t i c and inadequate manner by educational planners. School planners have tended to resort to techniques which estimate i n d i r e c t l y the future population l e v e l s of students, and do not estimate s p e c i f i c changes i n the components of population, or the forces a f f e c t i n g changes i n these components. One of the more common techniques used i n projecting student populations i s that of extrapolating from census data which indicates age-specific populations of c h i l d r e n of school ages. This method assumes that the major forces determining student populations, such as migration rates, w i l l continue to.change at the same rate that they have i n the past. A second method, less commonly used because i t tends to be more unreliable than the preceding technique, i s that of analogy. I t i s based on the assumption that the growth patterns of two s i m i l a r communities w i l l have developed h i s t o r i c a l l y , i n terms of the population structure, i n the same manner. I t s u n r e l i a b i l i t y stems from the f a c t that, i n general, communities are not accurately .comparable. 1 1 . A t h i r d method, the r e l a t i n g of school enrollments to the t o t a l population, i s used when data on the t o t a l populations of m u n i c i p a l i t i e s are avai l a b l e from other sources. A r a t i o of the student populations at p a r t i c u l a r grade l e v e l s to the age-specific population of the municipality i s determined, f o r example, by projection from past census data or by analogy with other school d i s t r i c t s . This method d i f f e r s from the preceding two i n that i t i s the r a t i o of the student population to the t o t a l population which i s determined and not the student populations themselves. The method i s unr e l i a b l e f o r c i t i e s which are experiencing either rapid growth or declines i n student populations as i t assumes that the components of population change such as migration rates are constant. The s p e c i f i c components of change are not generally treated as independent vari a b l e s . Probably the most common method used to project student populations i s the "average-survivor r a t i o " technique. (Council of Educational F a c i l i t y Planners, 1 9 6 8 ) . This method, also based on analysis of past census data, d i f f e r s from the preceding i n that b i r t h rates are modified i n the l i g h t of new trends, and are, i n f a c t , an e s s e n t i a l component of the technique. B i r t h data f o r a given year are compared with school enrollments f i v e and s i x years l a t e r , i n kindergarten and grade 12 one, r e s p e c t i v e l y . Grade one enrollments are compared with grade two, and so on. Average survivor r a t i o s obtained from an analysis of the average number of ch i l d r e n surviving from one grade to another over a period of time are used to project the enrollments f o r each grade l e v e l . Like other techniques, t h i s one assumes that, except f o r the b i r t h rate, that which has happened i n the past w i l l continue to occur i n the future. Consequently, changes i n the net migration rates of students are not normally an e s s e n t i a l part of t h i s technique. A f i f t h method used f o r long-range planning i s the saturation analysis, a technique which ascertains the ultimate enrollment r e s u l t i n g i f a l l land within a school d i s t r i c t were developed. This involves an evaluation of such factors as land use patterns, the number of acres l i k e l y to be used f o r r e s i d e n t i a l development, the type and number of s p e c i f i c dwelling units, and the probable changes i n density r a t i o s due to the aging of communities. Such an evaluation necessitates collaboration with c i t y planning o f f i c i a l s who suggest zoning changes and other measures a f f e c t i n g r e s i d e n t i a l patterns, as well as detailed analysis of the manner i n which housing variables and other elements a f f e c t p o t e n t i a l enrollments. 13 Saturation analysis, a long-range projection method based on an analysis of the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the physical environment and f a c t o r s such as migration and b i r t h rates, i s the only one which attempts to anticipate changes i n population by taking into consideration a l t e r a t i o n s i n the components of population change. The average-survivor r a t i o technique does incorporate changing b i r t h rates, but t h i s i s the only component of population change which i s taken into consideration. A l l the methods (with the exception of saturation analysis) assume that migration w i l l remain unchanged. I I I . Vancouver as a Case Study A. The Necessity of Analyzing the Separate  Components of Population Change The necessity of separately analyzing the trends of-each of the components of population change can be demonstrated by an examination of the impacts which both b i r t h and death rates have on school populations. For example, i n Vancouver City, there was an increase of over 1000 students i n 1966 due to an increase i n the b i r t h rate some f i v e years e a r l i e r , and an increase of over 1000 students due to net migration during the 1956-66 school period (Table 1). 14 Table 1 E f f e c t of Different Factors on the Enrollment i n Elementary Schools i n Vancouver C i t y Year Net Changes Due to Differences i n B i r t h Rates and Retention at Grade 7 Net Changes Due to Migration 1966 +1031 +1081 1967 +481 -171 1968 +561 -659 1969 +46 -334 1970 -310 -216 1971 -782 -918 1972 -1186 -1100 SOURCE: Vancouver School Board Graphical deoiction of the net changes indicates that the t r a n s i t i o n from an increase i n enrollment i n 1966 caused by b i r t h s and net migration to a decrease of a s i m i l a r magnitude i n 1972 was not smooth (Figure 1). Abrupt changes i n net migration, f o r example, occurred between 1966 and 1967, and between 1970 and 1971. The "average survivor r a t i o " or "average retention r a t i o " technique emdoyed by the Vancouver School Board does incorporate changes i n the b i r t h r a t e . Table 2 i l l u s t r a t e s the "average survivor r a t i o " or "average retention r a t i o " technique used by the Vancouver School Board. Figure 1 Elementary Schools i n Vancouver City, Net Changes i n Enrollment Due to Changes i n B i r t h Rates and Net Migration Net Changes Related to B i r t h and Retention at Grade Seven Net Changes Due to Migration 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971. 1972 16 The letter na", for example, prefixes the number of children born four years prior to 1969 i n Vancouver City (6187). The letter n a _ n prefixes the percentage of these births (80.5 percent) enrolling i n kindergarten in 1970, while the letter "a 2" depicts the actual number of students enrolling in kindergarten (4978) in 1970. An analagous sequence i s represented by the letters "b", nb_", "b2n, which indicate, respectively, actual enrollment in kindergarten in 1969, the percentage of these enrolling i n grade one in 1970, and the actual numbers enrolling i n grade one i n 1970. The figures for 1971 are projections based on "retention ratios" 1 or "survivor ratios" of the previous year. For example, 2 103.3 percent of the kindergarten students i n 1969 registered in grade one i n 1970. It was therefore 1. The 1970 "retention ratios" are used only to project student populations for 1971. The actual number of students registered in 1971 w i l l be obtained from school enrollment records, "retention ratios" w i l l be calculated, and used to project 1972 enrollments. The table i s corrected annually so that errors in projecting are not compounded. 2. A ratio of less than one hundred w i l l be caused by a retention (non-promotion to the next grade) of students and a net out-migration of students for that grade level. A ratio greater than one hundred w i l l be caused by a net in-migration of students. 17 assumed that migration would be the same as i n the preceding year and that the same percentage (represented by the letter "a-j^Jwould register i n grade one i n 1971. The actual number which was assumed or predicted to register i n grade one was 5142 students (represented by the letter "a^"). A comparison of the actual retention ratios and the actual number of students enrolling in each grade i n 1971 portrays the shortcomings of the retention ratio technique which i s based on the assumption that changes in net migration w i l l continue as they have i n the past (Table 3). The actual retention ratios were lower than the predicted ones for a l l grade levels, and particularly so for the kindergarten 3 enrollment. In terms of the total enrollment, the difference between the total projected elementary enrollment and the actual enrollment was 1159 students. Assuming that there were 30 students per classroom, this i s equivalent to approximately 39 classrooms and teachers. 3. The decrease in retention ratios could not have necessarily been anticipated as migration can fluctuate from year to year (see Figure 1). Table 2 Actual Enrollment i n Vancouver City Elementary Grades 1969 et Seq. Showing Percentage Continuation From Previous Grade Res. Kind. Gr. Gr. G r ^ . G r . G r ; G r . G r . Births One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Sept. 1969 6187 5509 604^ 5710 5927 5992 5818 5527 5423 80.5 103.3- 94.1 97.3 98.0 99.1 101.5 100.3 o u . ? Sept. 6529 4°78 /rs 5692 5686 5555 5809 5938 5903 5544 1970 V ^ f e ) ^ V 80.5 .. 103.3 ^94.1 97.3 98.0 99.1 101.5 100.3 Sept. 1971* 6526 5282 _5142 _ 5356 5532 5444 5757 6027 5921 *Sept., 1971 enrollments are predicted and are based on the retention r a t i o of the previous year. The fig u r e s f o r Sept. 1969 and Sept. 1970 are actual enrollments and actual retention r a t i o s . SOURCE: Vancouver School Board Table 3 Comparison of Predicted and Actual Elementary Enrollment and Retention Ratios for 1971 in the Vancouver School District Res. GrT Gr.. Grl Gr\ GrI Gr~, Gr. Births Kind. One Two Three Four Five Six Seven 1971 Proj. Ret. Ratios 80.9 103.3 94.1 97.3 98.0 99.1 101.5 100.3 1971 Act. Ret. Ratios 71.5 101.5 93.3 96.5 97.2 98.7 98.9 97.8 1971 Proj. Enrollment 5282 5142 5356 5532 5444 5757 6027 5921 1971 Act. EnrollmeAt 4671 5052 5313 5485 5400 5734 5875 5772 SOURCE: Vancouver School Board 20 B. Problems associated with the Projection of Student  Populations and Net Migration Levels Some of the prohlems a r i s i n g out of the i n a b i l i t y of school boards to predict accurately student populations are associated with the r a t i o n a l a l l o c a t i o n of resources (taxpayers money). Local school boards have been delegated the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of operating, administering, and maintaining a l l schools within t h e i r d i s t r i c t (Sections 9 7(b), 9 7 ( c ) , and 98(a) of the Public Schools Act). These, f o r example, require the h i r i n g of personnel, including teachers, the construction and operating of school buildings, and the provision and maintenance of classroom equipment and supplies. Decisions on these matters have to be made i n advance - i n the case of h i r i n g of teachers, p r i o r to the opening of classes i n the f a l l ; and, in, the case of the construction of new schools, at lea s t one or two years i n advance. On a short range basis, i t i s consequently desirable that not only the t o t a l number of students be predicted accurately f o r the school d i s t r i c t as a whole, but that t h i s accuracy extend to each school l e v e l . The text books and required teaching q u a l i f i c a t i o n s vary by grade. There must be s u f f i c i e n t of each f o r each grade l e v e l . 21 Over the medium term, the inaccurate p r e d i c t i o n of student populations can r e s u l t i n the unnecessary a c q u i s i t i o n of school s i t e s and construction of school buildings. Vancouver School Board, for example, purchased a school s i t e f o r $135,000 i n 1971 i n the Laura Secord-Selkirk area. Later t h i s purchase was considered unnecessary. "The $117,000 annex was to have been ready f o r use i n September. But l a s t week, o f f i c i a l s said, a survey of population trends indicated a sharp drop i n anticipated enrollment... 'It's just something that couldn't be forseen. I t had been one of our worst over-crowded areas.' Planning d i r e c t o r Don Pritchard said there was no c l e a r reason f o r the rapid drop i n enrolment, other than that people were moving out of the area bordering V i c t o r i a Drive from Burrard Inle t to about Sixteenth. He said an exodus to the suburbs by people with young children seems to be underway ;" (Cole, 1972, p. 1). A second set of problems associated with changes i n net l e v e l s of migration arise,not from an i n a b i l i t y to predict these changes, but from a lack of c o n t r o l over them. Even i f school o f f i c i a l s , by a c a r e f u l c a l i b r a t i o n of migration streams moving i n and out and within the metropolitan area, predict changes i n student populations, they are s t i l l faced with the problem of b u i l d i n g a d d i t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s i n some areas and having underutilized f a c i l i t i e s i n other areas. There i s not a simple sol u t i o n to t h i s problem because school 22 buildings tend to be permanent structures and cannot be converted e a s i l y f o r al t e r n a t i v e uses, or moved to new lo c a t i o n s . Quite often, only a few classrooms i n a number of schools are no longer needed. Thus, while a number of classrooms are being underutilized, whole buildings must s t i l l be operated and maintained. The Vancouver School Board has attempted to deal with t h i s problem i n a number of ways. In some cases, i t has converted ordinary schools to s p e c i a l purpose schools. For example, Osier was annexed to Oakridge, a school f o r retarded children. Edith C a v e l l Annex was transformed into an experimental "free school" f o r grades f i v e to ten. Elsewhere, classrooms are being used f o r purposes other than conventional teaching of students. At Waverly Elementary School, a classroom has been rented out at a nominal fee of two d o l l a r s a day to an organization c a l l e d PACE f o r the 1971-72 school year. Simon Fraser Annex has been converted into a teachers' centre. In a t h i r d case, commercial encroachment into a school area forced the closure of a complete school (Dawson). At the same time, however, the School Board i s faced with the prospect of building a new structure i n the same area (the West End), but i n a l o c a t i o n such that students are not forced to cross a number of main a r t e r i e s . 2 3 The net decrease i n enrollment i n the C i t y of Vancouver has increased the cost of education per p u p i l . While there has been some attempt to make e f f e c t i v e use of the extra classrooms and school buildings, i n most cases the classrooms s t i l l had to be maintained and operated. Secondly, the decrease i n the number of students has meant fewer recent u n i v e r s i t y graduates could be hired as teachers. Because these graduates are paid lower s a l a r i e s than teachers with more experience, they lower the average salary paid to teachers. While the costs of education per student have r i s e n , the revenue received by the Vancouver School Board from the p r o v i n c i a l government has decreased. P r o v i n c i a l grants to the school d i s t r i c t s are based ultimately on the number of students at the various grade l e v e l s i n the school d i s t r i c t s . 2 4 CHAPTER I I : THEORIES OF MIGRATION I. Introduction Because the basic purpose of t h i s t h e s i s i s to obtain a greater understanding of the facto r s i n f l u e n c i n g movement into and .within .a city., the following l i t e r a t u r e survey w i l l be a synthesis of those factors which have been demonstrated to have been of importance i n relat e d studies. In general, other studies have not separated migration streams within a metropolitan area. Wherever possible, however, reference w i l l be made to the two intra-metropolitan migration streams - within the c i t y and between the c i t y and the suburban areas. Studies of migration portray the migration process as having two dimensions - "push" and " p u l l " forces operating together. ( The former tends to p r e c i p i t a t e the move, but more so when there are alter n a t i v e s perceived as better elsewhere, or other factors " p u l l i n g " the i n d i v i d u a l into a new s e t t i n g . In the case of the i n t r a - c i t y and intra-metropolitan migrant, the "push" and " p u l l " forces are, respectively, the reasons why fa m i l i e s move from t h e i r o r i g i n a l residence, and the factor s which contribute to t h e i r choice of a d i f f e r e n t residence. For migrants from areas outside the metropolitan 25 area, the "push" and " p u l l " forces are the reasons f o r moving, and the f a c t o r s important i n the movement in t o the metropolitan area, r e s p e c t i v e l y . However, for the purpose of t h i s t h e s is, the factors contributing to the movement of f a m i l i e s into the c i t y and into s p e c i f i c areas i n the c i t y are also relevant. The r e s u l t s of studies portraying these w i l l be presented. I I . Reasons fo r Movement and Factors Important i n  the Choice of a Residence A. Movement within the Metropolitan Environment 1. General Theories of Intra-Metropolitan Migration Volpert (1965) and Brown and Moore (1971) have outlined the "push" and " p u l l " dimensions of the migration process. In both theories, the decision to move i s viewed as a r i s i n g from a s i t u a t i o n i n which the household's r e s i d e n t i a l desires are incongruent with i t s environment. Wolpert states that the i n d i v i d u a l , on the basis of his or her knowledge of e x i s t i n g r e s i d e n t i a l opportunities, evaluates t h e i r u t i l i t y r e l a t i v e to that of his present environment. The movement occurs i f the assigned "place u t i l i t y " of a p a r t i c u l a r residence provides a s u f f i c i e n t improvement r e l a t i v e to the cost of the move. 26 2. S p e c i f i c Theories of Intra-Metropolitan Migration a. Changes i n Socio-Economic Status One s p e c i f i c theory r e f l e c t i n g the i n t e r a c t i o n of the " p u l l " and "push" forces i s that which rel a t e s changes i n residence to changes i n the household's socio-economic status. Incongruences between the household's perception of i t s socio-economic status and that of i t s residence motivate a change i n residence to bring the two i n t o l i n e with each other. Whitney and Grigg (1958) have shown that 90 percent of l o c a l moves of predominantly Protestant middle-income f a m i l i e s i n the Eastern United States were f o r status reasons. In h i s analysis of migration by middle management personnel i n Vancouver City, Paper (1959) found that the majority moved to adjust t h e i r residence to t h e i r aspirations of status. Ross (1961-62) and L e s l i e and Richardson (1961) discovered that movement f o r status reasons tended to be a suburban rather than an urban phenomenon. In Ross's study of Boston, status considerations were the most important motivation for moving from the c e n t r a l c i t y to the peripheral l o c a t i o n s . L e s l i e and Richardson sampled r e l a t i v e l y new suburban areas i n Lafayette, Indiana, and found that 90 percent of the respondents with s o c i a l mobility expectations indicated an i n t e n t i o n 27 t o change t h e i r residence compared to approximately 12 percent with no such expectation. Not a l l studies have depicted status considerations to be an important reason f o r moving. Butler et a l . (1963) found that commitment to s o c i a l mobility did not f o r the most part d i f f e r e n t i a t e those with moving intentions i n suburban and urban neighborhoods of Los Angeles. In Deutschman's study of movement within the New York Metropolitan area, income and occupational class did not d i f f e r e n t i a t e between movers and non-movers (Deutschman, 1971). b. L i f e - C y c l e Changes L i f e - c y c l e changes are associated with mobility when they create new r e s i d e n t i a l needs, such as the need f o r more space. One of the more commonly accepted descriptions of the l i f e - c y c l e concept i s that of Foote et a l . (I960). A stage i n the l i f e - c y c l e i s defined i n terms of the marital status and age of the household head, the presence or absence of c h i l d r e n and t h e i r ages. Three stages i n the l i f e - c y c l e are designated as tending to be associated with a great amount of m o b i l i t y : "family formation", or marriage; "child-bearing", or the b i r t h of children; and "child-launching", i n which children leave to e s t a b l i s h homes of t h e i r own. The " c h i l d - r e a r i n g " period, durine which the chi l d r e n are attending school, i s a period 28 of r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e r e s i d e n t i a l mobility. Foote et a l . emphasize changes i n the size and ages of chi l d r e n as factors associated with r e s i d e n t i a l mobility. Studies of intra-metropolitan migration have supported Foote et a l . * s thesis that changes i n .household .size .and .the -development of children are associated with changing r e s i d e n t i a l requirements, which,: when not met lead to a change of residence. Rossi (1955) i n his c l a s s i c study of why f a m i l i e s move i n Philadelphia concluded that mobility was a process which enabled the household to adjust i t s housing to i t s needs generated by changes i n the composition of the household. Rossi (1961-62) found that those moving within the same square mile i n the ce n t r a l c i t y area of Boston tended to mention reasons r e l a t e d to features of the house and changes i n the family size and composition. S i m i l a r l y , the research conducted by Lansing et a l . (1964) on f a m i l i e s moving within Standard Metropolitan areas i n the United States depicted reasons l a r g e l y related to the dwelling unit and changes i n family composition. Chevan* s sampling of r e s i d e n t i a l and family h i s t o r i e s of couples i n the Philadelphia-Trenton Metropolitan area indicated that f a m i l i e s producing a c h i l d during any given period of marriage tended to have a higher rate 29 of mobility than other families (Chevan, 1971). When births were compared across different periods of marriage, the birth of a child contributed to greater mobility in the early stages of marriage. The interpretation of this was that families were more l i k e l y to have already moved in the early stages to adjust their housing to anticipated needs. Other studies relating l i f e - c y c l e changes to residential mobility have stressed the importance of the age of the household head, independent of changes in household size and composition. In Speare's study of Rhode Island residents, rates of mobility for each of his l i f e - c y c l e categories decreased as their age increased (Speare, 1970). Butler et a l . (1963), i n their analysis of suburban and urban areas in Los Angeles, found changes i n family composition to be less reliable than age of household head in differentiating those with mobility intentions. In Deutschman's analysis of mobility rates in ^ew York Metropolitan area, age of household head, in addition to variables depicting changes i n the size and composition of the household, was a significant discriminator between movers and non-movers (Deutschman, 1971). Similarly, in Long's national sample of households i n the United States, age was of importance, in determining the propensity of a household to move (Long, 1972). 30 The theory r e l a t i n g changes i n l i f e - c y c l e to r e s i d e n t i a l mobility i s based on the thesis that c o n f l i c t s between the r e s i d e n t i a l environment and needs of the household are generated by l i f e - c y c l e changes. Some studies have attempted to assess the s p e c i f i c aspects of the r e s i d e n t i a l environment which tend to be most often incongruent with the needs of the household. Most of these studies have found dwelling unit c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s to be more commonly incompatible with changing needs than neighborhood c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Dwelling unit c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s have been more important than neighborhood c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n moving from a residence and more important i n the choice of a residence. A few studies have found l o c a t i o n to work to be of importance i n the choice of a residence f o r f a m i l i e s moving within the c i t y and from the c i t y to"the suburbs. It has not, however, been an important reason f o r moving. Location to work has been important i n the movement of f a m i l i e s from the suburbs to the c i t y . In Rossi's study, d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n with the amount of space i n the dwelling unit was the most important reason for wanting to move (Rossi, 1955). Other fac t o r s , i n order of importance, were complaints about the s o c i a l and physical c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the neighborhood., and r e n t a l and maintenance costs. 31 Chevan (1971) depicted size to.be an important f a c t o r i n the choice of a new residence i n h i s i n v e s t i g a t i n g of the e f f e c t of movement on the density of the household, measured i n terms of person per room r a t i o . Couples moving during a given three-year period were found to have a higher person per room r a t i o -before t h e i r move than couples not moving, and s i m i l a r household densities a f t e r the move. Moving was consequently depicted as a mechanism used to adjust housing space to housing needs. Lansing et a l . (1964) found that over one-half of the l o c a l moves were f o r reasons r e l a t e d to the dwelling unit i t s e l f - space, q u a l i t y , and home ownership. Only ten percent were f o r reasons re l a t e d to the neighborhood. Neighborhood considerations were also depicted to be secondary to dwelling unit c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n the evaluation of the most recent move, 32 percent of the people judging the success of t h e i r move i n terms of the dwelling unit, compared to 22 percent i n terms of neighborhood features. In Michelson 1s study o f the expectations of those moving and intending to move within a suburban single-family dwelling unit area and a high-rise downtown area i n Metropolitan Toronto, the features mentioned by the greatest percentage of movers were dwelling u n i t i n t e r i o r (size and layout), exterior s e t t i n g , and neighborhood, i n that order (Michelson, 1 9 7 2 ) . 32 Deutschman (1971) has r e l a t e d reasons f o r moving to d i f f e r e n t groupings, according to age of household heado The need to change the size of residence was the most imoortant reason f o r moving f o r households whose heads f e l l i nto the following age categories: 25-34, 35-44, and 45-54. In addition, at l e a s t 40 percent of the households i n the categories a t t r i b u t e d moving to factors associated with the dwelling unit -s i z e , type, and rent. The 45-54 age group a t t r i b u t e d the most importance to neighborhood type and schools, but only 11 percent of them indicated t h i s to be a reason f o r changing residence. Two studies depicting l o c a t i o n to work to be of some importance i n the choice of a residence f o r i n t r a - c i t y migrants and migrants from the c i t y to the suburbs were those by Lansing et a l . (1964) and Wolforth (1965). Lansing et a l . found that s l i g h t l y more than one-third of movers decided on a maximum journey time to work when searching f o r a new home, and over 90 percent of these kept within t h e i r l i m i t . While Wolforth found that i n Vancouver City distance from work had l i t t l e e f f e c t i n determining r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n , i t did influence plant workers i n peripheral workplaces. 33 Both Ross (1961-62) and Butler et a l . (1969) analyzed the reasons f o r moving associated with d i f f e r e n t migration streams. While over 50 percent of those moving within a l o c a l area (approximately one square mile) i n Ross's study moved because of dwelling unit features, convenience of l o c a t i o n was a more important reason f o r those moving from the le s s c e n t r a l parts of Boston into the c e n t r a l c i t y area. In Butler's analysis of movements within several metropolitan areas i n the United States, the need f o r a d d i t i o n a l space was the most important reason f o r moves i n the c i t y and the suburbs, and from the central c i t y to the suburban areas. Neighborhood factors were not c i t e d as important. The two most important reasons f o r movement from the suburbs to the c i t y were convenience o f . l o c a t i o n to job, and the desire f o r a smaller l o t s i z e . B. Movement into Metropolitan Areas from Outside Areas Households moving into a metropolitan area can come from other communities, both urban and r u r a l , within the same country, or from other countries. Both are generally motivated by d i f f e r e n t factors from those which operate within the metropolitan environment. 34 1. Movement from Outside Areas Within the Same Country a. Economic Reasons Studies indicate that the most important reasons f o r i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration are job related or economic. While most of the evidence f o r t h i s has been based on research using secondary sources, such as census data, a -few d i r e c t surveys have -also been done, mostly as parts of other studies. Ross (1961-62) showed that 74 percent of those migrating from outside the Boston Metropolitan area into the c e n t r a l c i t y moved fo r reasons of convenience, such as closeness to work and friends (Ross, 1961-62). S i m i l a r l y , i n Butler's study, job chances or retirement were the most important reasons f o r movine from areas outside the metropolitan area into the suburbs and the c i t y (Butler et a l . t 1969). Another study, analyzing the reasons f o r both short distance and long distance moves, was conducted by Whitney and Grigg (1958). They found that 90 percent of the long distance moves were f o r "economic" reasons. In a separate study of the geographical mobility of labor i n the United States, Lansing and Mueller (1967) discovered that most inter-county moves were motivated by job-related f a c t o r s . 35 Researchers using secondary sources of data have depicted income d i f f e r e n t i a l s between places of o r i g i n and destination to be strongly related to migration rates between them. Mclnnis (1969), using Canadian census data, found p r o v i n c i a l income differences to be an important predictor of i n t e r -p r o v i n c i a l migration f o r the years 1956-61. S i m i l a r l y , Laber et a l . (1971), Courchene (1970), and Vanderkamp (1971) portrayed income d i f f e r e n t i a l s to be strongly associated with i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration i n Canada. Similar r e s u l t s were obtained by Greenwood and Gormely (1971) and A. Rogers (1968) i n the United States. Other studies using secondary sources of data have found i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration to be related to differences i n employement opportunities between the areas of o r i g i n and destination. For example, Lowry (1966), i n h i s study of the determinants of migration flows between 90 metropolitan areas i n the United States during the 1950-60 decade, found migration d i f f e r e n t i a l s to be l a r g e l y a function of employment opportunities at the place of destination. Vanderkamp (1968) and Courchene (1970) i n Canada found unemployment differences to account f o r a considerable portion of in t e r r e g i o n a l migration. In the United States, Kasnick (1968) depicted the unemployed to have a higher propensity to migrate than the employed, while Fabricant (1970) 36 found labor supply and demand to account f o r a large proportion of migration between states. Ladinsky (1967) related migration d i f f e r e n t i a l s to d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n economic expansion, b. Non-Economic Reasons Although economic considerations have been c i t e d as the most important f a c t o r s determining i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration, other features also a f f e c t i t . For example, i n the study published by the U.S.A. Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s , (1963), non-economic reasons c i t e d f o r i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration were reasons related to marriage and the family (15 percent) and "other" reasons (35 percent). In Lansing and Mueller's study (1967), "non-economic" and "no reason" accounted, respectively, f o r 23 and 5 percent of the i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration. Other reasons suggested i n the l i t e r a t u r e have been the more stimulating c u l t u r a l environment of some urban centres, and c l i m a t i c differences between regions (M. J . Greenwood, 1968: T.lni. Rogers, 1968). 2. Households Moving from Other Countries The reasons f o r immigration tend to vary with the economic and p o l i t i c a l circumstances of the country of o r i g i n . Three of the more important reasons • f o r emigration have been p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y , 37 over-population, and lack of economic opportunity i n the country of o r i g i n . Thomas (1959), i n a review of i n t e r n a t i o n a l migration, indicates these reasons to have been of importance i n d i f f e r e n t h i s t o r i c a l periods. Dudley and Hyuck (1965) i n t h e i r discussion of postwar migration from Eastern European countries indicate that while emigration was primarily due to p o l i t i c a l oppression, economic and population pressure also played a r o l e . Other a r t i c l e s and authors have stressed economic motives f o r emigrating ("International Migration S t a t i s t i c s " , 1964; "Economic and S o c i a l Factors A f f e c t i n g Migration", 1953; Spengler, 1956). Research on the r e s i d e n t i a l features considered important by new immigrants i n t h e i r choice of a home tended to emphasize the r o l e of "ethnic receiving neighborhoods" or "minority neighborhoods". Such neighborhoods, composed of the same ethnic or minority group as the immigrant, tend to be of low socio-economic status because most recent immigrants have l i t t l e c a p i t a l and tend to be u n s k i l l e d . In addition to the "economic s e c u r i t y " provided by such communities, they also provide s o c i a l security or a sense of community. The culture and l i f e - s t y l e of the immigrant i s usually d i f f e r e n t from that i n the country into which he i s immigrating, and he finds c u l t u r a l comfort i n the ethnic 3 8 or minority community. I I I . Summary 1 . Studies have depicted that f a m i l i e s move within the metropolitan area i n order to brine t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l environment i n l i n e with t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l needs. a. For f a m i l i e s moving within the c i t y and from the c i t y to the suburbs, r e s i d e n t i a l needs have often changed, creating incongruencies between the household's needs and the r e s i d e n t i a l environment. The changes i n the household's needs have most often been generated by l i f e - c y c l e changes. In some cases, changes i n socio-economic status have also been important reasons f o r moving. Dwelling unit features, e s p e c i a l l y s i z e , have been most often depicted as important i n the movement from one residence and i n the choice of another. b. For f a m i l i e s moving from the suburbs to the c i t y , l o c a t i o n to job has been an important reason f o r moving. 2 . Studies have portrayed economic factors to have contributed most to i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration, or movement from other metropolitan areas and r u r a l areas i n the same country, and to immigration from other countries. In the case of the l a t t e r , however, p o l i t i c a l and demographic factors have also been important. 39 Families moving into a metropolitan area from other countries have i n t h e i r choice of a residence attached importance to the s o c i a l and economic security offered by "ethnic receiving neighborhoods." 40 CHAPTER I I I : METHODOLOGY I, Development of Hypotheses A. Hypotheses Related to the Migration Streams 1 . Hypotheses Related to the Decision to Move Studies have demonstrated that a number of facto r s influence the movement of f a m i l i e s . Families moving within the c i t y and from the c i t y to the suburbs tend to be motivated by a divergence between t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l environment and r e s i d e n t i a l needs, generated by l i f e - c y c l e changes. There i s some, although l e s s , evidence to indicate that such incongruencies are caused by socio-economic changes. The features of the r e s i d e n t i a l environment which tend to be most often i n c o n f l i c t with household needs concern the dwelling unit i t s e l f , and p a r t i c u l a r l y space. Neighborhood considerations are of secondary importance. For fa m i l i e s moving from the suburbs to the c i t y , convenience of l o c a t i o n plays an important role i n the decision to move. In contrast to intra-metropolitan migration, migration i n t o the metropolitan area tends to be motivated by economic and job-related reasons. This i s true f o r households coming from other parts of the country, and ' from other countries. In addition, c l i m a t i c and c u l t u r a l considerations influence i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration, while p o l i t i c a l unrest and demographic factors a f f e c t migration from other countries. The preceding r e s u l t s , depicting reasons f o r migration, suggest the f i r s t hypothesis: Hypothesis I Families moving into c i t y areas from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s w i l l be motivated by s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t reasons. Several sub-hypotheses describe more det a i l e d reasons which are presumed to be associated with the s p e c i f i c migration streams. Sub-hypothesis 1-1 Change of job w i l l contribute s i g n i f i c a n t l y more to the out-migration of fa m i l i e s from areas outside the metropolitan area than from areas within the metropolitan area. Sub-hypothesis 1-2 Location to job w i l l contribute s i g n i f i c a n t l y more to the movement of f a m i l i e s from the suburban areas than from other areas. Sub-hypothesis 1-3 Features related to the dwelling unit and neighborhood w i l l contribute s i g n i f i c a n t l y more to the movement of fam i l i e s from other areas i n the c i t y than from areas outside the c i t y . 42 There w i l l be an attempt to determine whether s i g n i f i c a n t socio-economic and l i f e - c y c l e differences ex i s t amongst the migration streams - movement within the c i t y , movement between the c i t y and the suburbs, and movement into the c i t y from outside areas. The l i t e r a t u r e has demonstrated that movement to the suburbs tends to be motivated by both l i f e - c y c l e and socio-economic changes, while movement within the c i t y tends to be related primarily to l i f e - c y c l e changes. The sample to be used i n t e s t i n g the hypotheses i n t h i s t h e s i s , being fa m i l i e s with children at the elementary school l e v e l , i s expected to be too homogeneous to reveal any s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n l i f e - c y c l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s between the migration streams. Evidence i n other studies, favoring the socio-economic explanation of r e s i d e n t i a l mobility, tends to be l i m i t e d . Consequently, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to propose r e l a t i o n s h i p s between socio-economic status and migration with any degree of confidence. These r e l a t i o n s h i p s and those between migration streams and l i f e - c y c l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i l l therefore be approach i n an exploratory manner. In addition, there w i l l also be an in v e s t i g a t i o n of the rel a t i o n s h i p s between the migration streams and other variables, such as changes i n type, tenure, cost, and l i v i n g space of housing, areas considered i n the choice of a residence, and the 43 reasons f o r considering the areas. 2. Hypotheses Related to the Choice of a Residence I t would seem reasonable that the considerations which prompt the decision to move w i l l be r e f l e c t e d i n the choice of a new residence. The second set of hypotheses l i n k s these considerations to the d i f f e r e n t migration streams. Hypothesis II The importance attached to d i f f e r e n t features i n the choice of a residence by fa m i l i e s moving into c i t y areas from d i f f e r e n t origins w i l l vary s i g n i f i c a n t l y . Sub-hypothesis I I - l Families moving into c i t y areas from other areas i n the c i t y w i l l attach more importance to dwelling unit features and neighborhood c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s than f a m i l i e s moving from areas outside the c i t y . Sub-hypothesis II-2 Families moving into c i t y areas from areas outside the c i t y w i l l attach more importance to l o c a t i o n a l considerations than f a m i l i e s moving from other areas of the c i t y . 4 4 Immigrants from other countries have tended to move into areas populated by t h e i r own ethnic groups. While ethnic communities, s«ch as the Chinese Strathcona area, do e x i s t i n Vancouver City, the school areas to be sampled, although receiving immigrants, are not perceived as being characterized by any p a r t i c u l a r ethnic group. Therefore the s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the sample neighborhood i n the present study are expected to be unimportant i n the r e s i d e n t i a l choice of the immigrant 0 B. Hypotheses Related to S p e c i f i c School Areas Variations i n the migration streams which characterize school areas should be r e f l e c t e d i n the importance attached to the d i f f e r e n t r e s i d e n t i a l features. The following hypotheses portray these expectations. Hypothesis III The importance attached to d i f f e r e n t r e s i d e n t i a l features by f a m i l i e s moving into school areas characterized by d i f f e r e n t migration streams w i l l vary s i g n i f i c a n t l y . Sub-Hypothesis I I I - l More importance w i l l be attached to dwelling unit and neighborhood features i n school areas characterized by an in-migration of f a m i l i e s from other areas i n the c i t y . 45 Sub-hypothesis III-2 More importance w i l l be attached to l o c a t i o n to job i n school areas characterized by an in-mi£ration of fa m i l i e s from areas outside the c i t y . The analysis of the reasons why f a m i l i e s move out of school areas i s r e s t r i c t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s to movement to other schools i n Vancouver City and to the suburban areas. This was because the new addresses of f a m i l i e s moving to places outside the metropolitan area were too d i f f i c u l t to obtain. The f i n a l hypothesis r e l a t e s t h i s out-migration to r e s i d e n t i a l features. Hypothesis Four Residential features w i l l contribute to the movement of f a m i l i e s from school areas to other school areas i n the metropolitan area. They w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important i n school areas characterized by a net out-migration to other school areas i n the c i t y . As i n the case of the analysis of l i f e - c y c l e and socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and other factors associated with migration, the analysis of these rel a t i o n s h i p s i n school areas with d i f f e r e n t migration patterns w i l l be exploratory. 46 H o Testing of the Hypotheses • A» The Basis for the Sample In order to test the hypotheses, a questionnaire was sent to families with elementary school age childre n moving i n and out of school areas i n Vancouver 4 C i t y . The questionnaire was designed to determine why f a m i l i e s had moved from t h e i r previous residence, and the reasons f o r t h e i r choice of t h e i r present residence. Testing of hypotheses three and four necessitated the sampling of school areas characterized by d i f f e r e n t migration streams. It was f e l t that a c l u s t e r sampling of such school areas would provide a s u f f i c i e n t l y large sample of each migration stream to test the f i r s t two hypotheses and t h e i r related sub-hypotheses. In order to c l u s t e r sample appropriate school areas affected by d i f f e r e n t migration streams, a separate study of the e f f e c t s which migration streams were having on the s p e c i f i c school areas i n Vancouver City was necessary. The only migration data possessed by the Vancouver School Board Flanning Department related to net migration l e v e l s f o r the school d i s t r i c t as a whole. The study was made i n the summer of 1972 and covered a two and one-half year period - October 1, 1969 to May 1, 1972. Migration during a p a r t i c u l a r school year was ITi See Appendix A f o r a copy of the questionnaire. 47 considered to have occurred between October 1 and September 30 as many of the transfers registered at the opening of schools in September had actually occurred prior to this time. Secretaries of the 93 elementary schools (including annexes) i n Vancouver City were asked to complete a 5 form detailing the number of students from their schools transferring to and from the following areas: a. Vancouver City; b. Lower Mainland (Metropolitan Vancouver exclusive of Vancouver City); c. areas outside the Lower Mainland, including other countries, other provinces, and other parts of British Columbia; d. private schools; and e. others, which were basically "unknowns" or students with incomplete transfer records. Those transferring between schools i n Vancouver City were separated into two groups - those changing addresses and moving to a different school, and those maintaining their addresses but changing schools. The survey indicated that migration streams caused a much greater turnover of student population in some areas of the city than in others. Maps I and II portray 5. See Appendix B for a copy of the form. 4 8 mobile and stable school areas, r e s p e c t i v e l y . The former was defined as one i n which the transfers i n and out f o r the two and one-half year period constituted 50 percent or more of the numbers of students enrolled i n the school f o r the same period. Stable areas contained schools i n which the tra n s f e r s i n and out constituted 30 percent or l e s s of the student population. The rate of change i n student population l e v e l s caused by migration was not always greatest f o r school areas characterized by a high rate of m o b i l i t y . Nevertheless, when, f o r example, net losses and gains were expressed as a percentage of the school enrollments f o r the 1970-71 school period, the school areas with r e l a t i v e l y high "net loss percentages" tended to be those with r e l a t i v e l y high rates of m o b i l i t y . Of the twelve school areas with r e l a t i v e l y high rates of mobility, seven had r e l a t i v e l y high "net loss or gain percentages" 6 (9 percent or higher). The remaining f i v e schools tended to be characterized by a moderate rate of student mobility. Only one school with a r e l a t i v e l y low rate of student mobility had a r e l a t i v e l y high rate of population change. The enrollment of t h i s school was comparatively small and small changes i n the number of students meant r e l a t i v e l y large rates of change. F! In terms of actual changes i n student population, a net lo s s or gain percentage of 9% was equivalent to a change i n enrollment of at le a s t 30 students (one classroom). 'mm 51 On the basis of the varying impacts which the different migration streams had on the student pooulation i n Vancouver City, three school areas were chosen for the survey. Map III portrays their location and boundaries. These had varying rates of both student mobility and changes i n student population. The three school areas were characterized by different migration streams. Table 4 portrays the relative importance in 1970-71 of each migration stream to be sampled i n the three school areas. In the Lord Roberts school area, the transfers in and out constituted 76.1% of i t s enrollment, and the increase in i t s student ponulation for the 1970-71 period was 14.7% (85 students). The most important migration stream was in-migration from areas outside the Lower Mainland. This was also primarily responsible for the relatively high increase i n student population for this period. However, Lord Roberts also experienced a slight net gain from other schools in Vancouver City. In the Lord Tennyson area which was also characterized by a relatively large amount of mobility, the transfers in and out constituted 55.5% of i t s enrollment. However, in contrast to Lord Roberts, i t s student population experienced a relatively large decrease (10.7%), equivalent to 55 students, during the 1970-71 period. 53 The strongest migration streams were those between Lord Tennyson and other Vancouver schools, i n p a r t i c u l a r migration out to other Vancouver schools. This exchange was primarily responsible f o r the net loss of students from the area. An a d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r contributing to the net loss of students was the net out-migration to the Lower Mainland. In the Lord Kitchener school area, the t r a n s f e r s out comprised only 20.4% of the enrollment. I t experienced a r e l a t i v e l y small increase i n student population (2.5%). The l a t t e r was equivalent to an increase of 19 students. The main migration stream f o r Lord Kitchener was in-migration from other Vancouver schools. This was primarily responsible f o r the s l i g h t net increase i n i t s student ponulation, counteracting the net l o s s to the Lower Mainland. There was l i t t l e v a r i a t i o n amongst the three school areas i n terms of t h e i r transfers to and from the Lower Mainland, consistent with school areas i n Vancouver City as a whole. 54 Table 4 Proportion of Total Transfers i n Each School Area, Subdivided by Origin and Destination 9 Vancouver C i t y , 1 9 7 0 - 7 1 School Areas. Transferring From and To: Proportions Transferring From Lord Roberts to other Vancouver Schools: 14<>9% To Lord Roberts from other Vancouver Schools: 19.3% From Lord Roberts to Lower Mainland:* 10.9% To Lord Roberts from Lower Mainland: 5.5% To Lord Roberts from areas outside the Lower Mainland:** 34.3% From Lord Tennyson to other To Lord Tennyson from other From Lord Tennyson to Lower To Lord Tennyson from Lower To Lord Tennyson from areas Lower Mainland: Vancouver Schools: 2 9 . 8 % Vancouver Schools: 2 0 . 2 % Mainland: 11.9% Mainland: 8.6% outside the 9.5% From Lord Kitchener to other To Lord Kitchener from other From Lord Kitchener to Lower To Lord Kitchener from Lower To Lord Kitchener from areas Lower Mainland: Vancouver Schools: 12.7% Vancouver Schools: 23.6% Mainland: 10.3% Mainland: 2.9% outside the 14.9% * Lower Mainland does not include Vancouver C i t y . ** Migrants to areas outside the Lower Mainland are not sampled i n the study and therefore are not portrayed i n the t a b l e . 55 B. The Sample The names and addresses of students t r a n s f e r r i n g i n and out of each school area are recorded at the p a r t i c u l a r school. Some of the records are incomplete; i n some cases both the addresses and schools to which the students had transferred were unknown. In other cases, only the schools to which the students had transferred were known. In the case of the l a t t e r , an attempt was made to obtain t h e i r addresses by contacting the schools involved. Many of the students who had transferred, from the Lord Tennyson school area i n p a r t i c u l a r , had already moved again. In regard to transfers to the Lower Mainland, i t was impossible to obtain the new addresses from Lower Mainland schools. Such information i s considered c o n f i d e n t i a l , and only i n the case of Vancouver City was such information a v a i l a b l e . Transferees to the Lower Mainland are consequently under-represented i n the sample. These d i f f i c u l t i e s i n sampling were r e f l e c t e d i n the sample obtained f o r the separate school areas (Table 5). A comparison of Tables 4 and 5 indicates-that out-migrants to the Lower Mainland were p a r t i c u l a r l y 56 under-represented i n the Lord Roberts area. For both Lord Roberts and Lord Tennyson, there were more in-migrants from the Lower Mainland sampled than out-migrants to t h i s area. The actual t r a n s f e r records f o r the time period sampled demonstrated a net loss to t h i s area, and not a net gain. Another discrepancy between Tables 4 and 5 occurred i n the transfers between Lord Tennyson and other schools i n Vancouver C i t y . A tabulation of the actual transfers between Lord Tennyson and other Vancouver schools f o r the sampled time period depicted a net loss to other Vancouver schools, as existed i n 1970-71* However, the sampled number of transfers out to other Vancouver schools f e l l short of the number of transfers into the school area. C. Returns of the Questionnaire The questionnaires were mailed to the parents and, approximately one week l a t e r , a l e t t e r of reminder was sent out to those who had not returned the questionnaire. 202 questionnaires were returned, approximately 48% of those mailed. Of these, 43.6% were from f a m i l i e s t r a n s f e r r i n g i n and out of Lord Roberts school area. This represented 40.6% of the questionnaires sent to such f a m i l i e s i n t h i s area. Of the remainder, 28.2% were from f a m i l i e s associated with the Lord Tennyson area. 57 Table 5 Proportion of the Total Transfers Sampled in Each School Area, Subdivided by Origin and Destination, Vancouver Citv, Sept. 1, 1971 to Feb. 10, 1973* School Areas, Transferring From and To: Proportions Transferring From Lord Roberts to other Vancouver Schools: 16.6$ To Lord Roberts from other Vancouver Schools: 22.6$ From Lord Roberts to Lower Mainland:** 4.6$ To Lord Roberts from Lower Mainland: 17.0$ To Lord Roberts from areas outside the 39.2$ Lower Mainland:*** From Lord Tennyson to other Vancouver Schools: 30.4$ To Lord Tennyson from other Vancouver Schools: 40.0$ From Lord Tennyson to Lower Mainland: 8.9$ To Lord Tennyson from Lower Mainland: 7 . 2 $ To Lord Tennyson from areas outside the Lower Mainland: 13.6$ From Lord Kitchener to other To Lord Kitchener from other From Lord Kitchener to Lower To Lord Kitchener from Lower To Lord Kitchener from areas Lower Mainland: Vancouver Schools: 18.8$ Vancouver Schools: 50.5$ Mainland: 11.9$ Mainland: 7.7$ outside the 10.9$ * The time period chosen for the sample was Sept. 1, 1971 to Feb. 10, 1973, the latter being the time at which the questionnaires were mailed. It was f e l t that the time period would be sufficiently long to provide an adequate sample, but not too long to prevent respondents from accurately recalling necessary information. ** Lower Mainland does not include Vancouver City. *** Migrants to areas outside the Lower Mainland are not sampled in the study and therefore are not portrayed in the table. 58 The same percentage were returned by f a m i l i e s moving i n and out of the Lord Kitchener area. The returned questionnaires represented 4 5 . 6 % of those r e l a t i n g to the Lord Tennyson area, and 56.5% f o r the Lord Kitchener area. A comparison of Tables 5 and 6 indicates the proportion of questionnaires returned r e l a t i v e to the proportion sampled. There were some discrepancies between the proportional representation of the migration streams i n the sample and i n the responses. For example, there was a greater response from f a m i l i e s t r a n s f e r r i n g into Lord Roberts and from other Vancouver school areas, than from f a m i l i e s t r a n s f e r r i n g i n the reverse d i r e c t i o n . On the whole, the dominant migration streams f o r each school area were adequately represented. For example, the response of in-migrants from areas outside the Lower Mainland was approximately i n proportion to the number sampled. In-migrants into the Lord Kitchener area from other Vancouver schools responded s i m i l a r l y . In the Lord Tennyson area, however, the proportion of responses from in-migrants from other Vancouver City school areas was less than that sampled. Those t r a n s f e r r i n g to other Vancouver schools were over-represented. Nevertheless, while these responses were not i n the proportions sampled, the r e l a t i v e proportions 59 Table 6 Proportion of Total Transfers Responding to Questionnaire in Each School Area, Subdivided by Origin and Destination, Vancouver City, Sept. 1, 1971 to Feb. 10, 1973 School Areas, Transferring From and T o : P r o p o r t i o n Responding From Lord Roberts to other Vancouver Schools: 24.4% To Lord Roberts from other Vancouver Schools: 16.6% From Lord Roberts to' Lower Mainland:* 4.45^  To Lord Roberts from Lower Mainland: 13.3% To Lord Roberts from areas outside the Lower Mainland:** 41.1% From Lord Tennyson to other To Lord Tennyson from other From Lord Tennyson to Lower To Lord Tennyson from Lower To Lord Tennyson from areas Lower Mainland: Vancouver Schools: 40.0% Vancouver Schools: 25.0% Mainland: 8.3% Mainland: 8.3% outside the 18.3% From Lord Kitchener to other To Lord Kitchener from other From Lord Kitchener to Lower To Lord Kitchener from Lower To Lord Kitchener from areas Lower Mainland: Vancouver Schools: 23.2% Vancouver Schools: 48.2% Mainland: 7.1/f Mainland: 7.1% outside the 14.3% * Lower Mainland does not include Vancouver City. ** Migrants to areas outside the Lower Mainland are not sampled in the study and therefore are not portrayed in the table. 60 Table 7 Proportion of Total Transfers, Total ^ample, and Total Responses, Represented by Each Migration Stream Migration Streams Prop, of Prop, of Prop, of Tota l Total T o t a l Transfers Sample Transfers Rep. by Rep. by Rep. by Migration Migration Migration Streams Streams Streams Transfers Out to other Vancouver 22.3$ 23.8$ 29.2$ Schools Transfers In from other Vancouver 25.5$ 30.7$ 29.9$ Schools Transfers Out to • Lower Mainland 14.8$ 7.4$ 6.4$ Transfers In from Lower Mainland 8.2$ 12.1$ 9.9$ Transfers In from areas outside the 29.2$ 26.0$ 24.9$ Lower Mainland * Lower Mainland does not include Vancouver C i t y . 61 f o r the two migration streams did represent the actual migration s i t u a t i o n . There were more out-migrants to other Vancouver City schools than in-migrants, although as previously established, the samDle did not r e f l e c t t h i s . The proportion of responses from out-migrants to the Lower Mainland might be so low as to a f f e c t the r e s u l t s of the study. As indicated previously, ' r e l a t i v e l y few of these f a m i l i e s could be sampled. In addition, f o r the Lord Kitchener area, a smaller proportion of those migrating to the Lower Mainland responded to the questionnaire than were sampled. The r e l a t i v e l y smaller size of the sample and of the response f o r the migration stream between Vancouver Ci t y and the Lower Mainland i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n Table 7. 6 2 CHAPTER IV: SURVEY RESULTS I. Hypotheses Related to Reasons for Out-Migration  from Di f f e r e n t Origins into ^ i t y School Areas The f i r s t major hypothesis states that there w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t reasons f o r the movement of f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t areas into the c i t y . These •expected differences were delineated i n a number of sub-hypotheses. They were reasons related to change of job, l o c a t i o n tn job, and dwelling unit and neighborhood features, respectively, f o r f a m i l i e s moving from outside-the metropolitan area (Diagram 1, Migration Stream A), from the suburbs (Diagram 1, Migration Stream B), and from other areas i n the c i t y (Diagram 1, Migration Stream C) Diagram 1 Migration Streams A f f e c t i n g School Enrollments i n Vancouver C i t y Outside Metropolitan N \ Vancouver: Migration N Stream A M \ ,''Lower Mainland ff ~~ ~~~^ \ | Migration Stream B g \ \ Vancouver C i t y W \ 1 I '1% Mjg^^tion stream C j j j \ / I 63 Question 9, 18, and 19 of the questionnaire were used to test these hypotheses. Question 9 indicated the three main areas of o r i g i n f o r f a m i l i e s moving into c i t y areas i n Vancouver. Question 19 was the most important question i n terms of the response rate as i t provided a uniform set of fact o r s to which a l l households could respond,, I t contained a l i s t of the possible reasons for the movement of f a m i l i e s , and respondents were asked to indicate the importance of these reasons. Question 18, an open-ended question asking respondents to state the reasons f o r the movement out of t h e i r previous residence, was not answered as completely as question 19. I t was more often used when the important reasons f o r the family's out-migration were not delineated i n question 19. Chi-square values indicated that there were s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the fact o r s which contributed to the migration of f a m i l i e s from various ori g i n s 7 (Table 8). For in-migrants from areas outside the Lower Mainland, (Diagram 1, Migration Stream A), "change of job" and "other reasons" were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important i n contributing to t h e i r migration from 7. See Appendix C. f o r an explanation of the Chi-Square and an i l l u s t r a t i o n of i t s use i n the present studv. •-64 t h e i r previous residence than they were f o r f a m i l i e s o r i g i n a t i n g from other areas. Of the respondents i n d i c a t i n g "change of job" and "other reasons" to be of importance, 46.0% and 60.5%, respectively, were migrants from areas outside the Lower Mainland. This group constituted only 28.7% of the sample of in-migrants responding to these va r i a b l e s . The migrants i n d i c a t i n g "distance from job" to be of importance w«re from the Lower Mainland to a disproportionate extent. Of the respondents to t h i s variable, 10.7% were from the Lower Mainland, (Diagram 1, Migration Stream B), but 26.3% of the f a m i l i e s considering i t to be of importance i n t h e i r out-migration were from the Lower Mainland. Housing factors were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important f o r f a m i l i e s who moved from other areas i n the c i t y , (Diagram 1, Migration Stream C), than they were for f a m i l i e s who moved from areas outside the c i t y . Of the out-migrating f a m i l i e s s p e c i f y i n g housing features to be important, at l e a s t 80% of those from other c i t y areas noted each of the following s p e c i f i c housing features: home too run down; home too large or small; landlord sold home; offered a good price f o r home; and desired nicer home and/or neighborhood. Two reasons related s p e c i f i c a l l y to the neighborhood - "too much t r a f f i c " and "neighborhood too run down" were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important for Q 65 f a m i l i e s who moved out of areas i n the c i t y than f o r f a m i l i e s who moved out of areas outside the c i t y . Of the out-migrating f a m i l i e s depicting these reasons to have contributed to t h e i r movement, 82.9% and 76.7%, respectively, were from other areas i n the c i t y . The responses to the open-ended question (question 18) provided some ad d i t i o n a l insight into the motivating factors which were operating i n d i f f e r e n t areas. For example, three "other reasons" f o r moving, s i g n i f i c a n t at the .05 l e v e l , were considered important by a disproportionate number of f a m i l i e s moving from areas outside the Lower Mainland. These were c l i m a t i c , p o l i t i c a l , and c u l t u r a l considerations. Over 80% of the households spec i f y i n g these reasons to be important were migrants from areas outside the Lower Mainland, the l a t t e r comprising 29.5% of the respondents to the question. General l o c a t i o n was a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t variable which was stated to be important by a disproportionate number of migrants from suburban areas. In contrast to the 9.6% which t h i s group constituted of the t o t a l respondents to the question, 17.0% s p e c i f i e d i t to be important i n t h e i r out-migration. 66 Table 8 Features Which Were S i g n i f i c a n t l y D i f f e r e n t i n Contributing to the M g r a t i o n of Families From D i f f e r e n t Origins into Areas i n Vancouver City Feature Level of Significance Change of job. 005 Too f a r from job 01 Home too run down 025 Home too large or small 005 Did not l i k e design of home 005 Landlord sold home 05 Offerred a good price f o r home 05 Too much t r a f f i c 005 Desired nicer home and/or neighborhood... .005 Neighborhood too run down 05 Other reasons for moving 005 SOURCE: From chi-square values obtained by crosstabulating question 19 (22 reasons f o r moving) with question 9 (the migration streams) of the questionnaire. The desire to buy a home was also a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t variable at the 95% l e v e l of confidence. Of migrating f a m i l i e s s t a t i n g i t to be important, 92.9/0 were from other Vancouver C i t y areas. Of the 67 f a m i l i e s responding to the question, 61.0$ were from other Vancouver City areas. Hypothesis I and i t s associated sub-hypotheses have consequently been supported i n a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t manner. However, while the contribution of d i f f e r e n t motivating factors to out-migration varied S i g n i f i c a n t l y i n terms of the o r i g i n of the family, a relevant consideration i s the absolute extent to which they were important f o r f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s . Job reasons contributed more to the movement of f a m i l i e s from areas outside the Lower Mainland than of f a m i l i e s o r i g i n a t i n g from other areas. However, of the f a m i l i e s from areas outside the Lower Mainland, only 41.1$ and 46.4$, respectively, depicted "change of job" and "other reasons" to be important. The proportion of migrants from these areas s t a t i n g p o l i t i c a l and cl i m a t i c reasons, and the desire to l i v e i n a d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r a l s e t t i n g as having contributed to t h e i r out-migration was considerably lower. For f a m i l i e s o r i g i n a t i n g from the Lower Mainland " l o c a t i o n to job" was considered important by 47.6$ of the f a m i l i e s , while " l o c a t i o n i n general" was stated to be important by 50$ of these out-migrants. 68 In the case of fa m i l i e s who moved from other areas i n Vancouver City, only two variables were considered important by 40% or more of the f a m i l i e s . These were size of home, and the desire f o r a nicer home, s p e c i f i e d as important by 48.7% and 47.1%, respectively, of these out-migrants. I I . Hypotheses Related to Choice of a Residence The second hypothesis stated that the importance attached to r e s i d e n t i a l features i n the choice of a home by fa m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s would vary s i g n i f i c a n t l y . Dwelling unit and neighborhood features were expected to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y important f o r fam i l i e s who moved within the c i t y , and l o c a t i o n f o r f a m i l i e s who moved from areas outside the c i t y (sub-hypotheses one and two of hypothesis two). The second set of hypotheses was tested by cross-tabulating question 9 with questions 22 and 23. As previously stated, question 9 delineated the area of o r i g i n . Question 23, a l i s t of l o c a t i o n a l , dwelling unit, and neighborhood features which might be important i n the choice of a home, was more valuable than question 22. The l a t t e r , an open-ended question asking respondents to indicate the important fac t o r s i n t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l choice, was,like question 18, used mainly to determine important factors not l i s t e d i n the closed question. 69 The chi-square values depicted s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the importance attached to most of the housing features, but to only a few of the l o c a t i o n a l features (Table 9). Table 9 Features Which Were of S i g n i f i c a n t l y D i f ferent -Importance i n Contributing to the Choice of a Home by Families from Di f f e r e n t Origins Feature Level of Significance Closer to shopping 025 Closer to rec r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s 05 Size of home 01 Cost or rent of home 025 Design or layout of home .005 SOURCE: From chi-sauare values obtained by crosstabulating question 23 (16 factors important i n the choice of a residence) with question 9 (the migration streams) of the questionnaire,, Features of the dwelling unit were considered to be more important by f a m i l i e s who moved from other areas i n the c i t y , than they were by fa m i l i e s who moved from areas outside the c i t y . Of in-migrating f a m i l i e s considering s i z e to be important, 68.1% were from other areas i n the c i t y , while 60.9£> of the respondents to t h i s question were from t h i s area. Of in-migrating families noting cost and design of home 70 to be of relevance i n t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l choice, 64.5% and 68.3%, respectively, were from other c i t y areas. In contrast, 9.4%, 7.8%, and 9.6% of fa m i l i e s i n d i c a t i n g s i z e , cost, and design, respectively, to be relevant were from the Lower Mainland. The l a t t e r constituted 11.7% of the respondents. In the case of in-migrants from areas outside the Lower Mainland, comprising 27.4% of the respondents, 22.5%, 27.4%, and 18.4% s p e c i f i e d s i z e , cost, and design, respectively, to contribute to t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l choice. Of the in-migrating f a m i l i e s , there was a tendency for a considerably greater proportion of f a m i l i e s from other c i t y areas than from areas outside the c i t y to note the importance of s p e c i f i c dwelling u n i t , features. Size was considered important by 78.3%, 47.8%, and 72.2% of f a m i l i e s from other c i t y areas, the Lower Mainland, and areas outside the Lower Mainland, resp e c t i v e l y . Design of home was important to 68.3% of f a m i l i e s from other c i t y areas, but only to 47.8% of fa m i l i e s from areas outside the Lower Mainland. While dwelling unit features were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important, i n the choice of a home, to fa m i l i e s who moved within the c i t y , neighborhood features were not. With the exception of the "status of the neighborhood" these features were considered important by more than 50% of a l l in-migrants. There was not s u f f i c i e n t 71 v a r i a t i o n among the groups i n the importance attached to "status of neighborhood", "type of people i n neighborhood", and "q u a l i t y of school" to produce chi-square values which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t 0 While there was thus some support f o r sub-hypothesis four, dealing with the r e l a t i v e importance of dwelling unit and neighborhood features i n r e s i d e n t i a l choice, support for sub-hypothesis f i v e , dealing with l o c a t i o n a l features, was more l i m i t e d . Proximity of job was expected to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important i n the choice of a home f o r migrants from areas outside the c i t y than f o r families.moving within the c i t y . While a greater proportion of respondents from areas outside the c i t y did specify proximity of job to be important, the differences were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t at the o05 l e v e l . • Two l o c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t were nearness to shopping and to rec r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s . These were more important f o r fa m i l i e s who moved from areas outside the Lower Mainland than f o r f a m i l i e s who moved from both the Lower Mainland and other c i t y areas. Nearness to shopping was important f o r 77.8$ of "" f a m i l i e s who moved from areas outside the Lower Mainland, but important f o r only 47.8% and 58.3$ of f a m i l i e s 7 2 from the Lower Mainland and other c i t y areas, resp e c t i v e l y . Of the in-migrants considering i t important i n t h e i r choice of a home, 34.1% were fa m i l i e s from areas outside the Lower Mainland, a group which constituted 27.6% of the t o t a l respondents. Disproportionately fewer fa m i l i e s from the Lower Mainland and other -city areas considered i t important. Of the fam i l i e s noting l o c a t i o n to shopping to be imnortant, 8.9% and 56.9% were from the Lower Mainland and other c i t y areas, res p e c t i v e l y . The sample of respondents was composed of 11.7% from the Lower Mainland, and 60.9% from other c i t y areas. S i m i l a r l y , of the fam i l i e s depicting a c c e s s i b i l i t y to r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s as contributing to t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l choice, disproportionately fewer were from the Lower Mainland than other c i t y areas (10.9% and 55.5%, r e s p e c t i v e l y ) , r e l a t i v e to t h e i r representation i n the sample (see above) 0 Disproportionately more were from areas outside the Lower Mainland (33.6%). Of the in-migrants from areas outside the Lower Mainland, 79.6% s p e c i f i e d t h i s variable to be important,. i n contrast to 60.9% fo r those from the Lower Mainland, and 59.2% f o r fa m i l i e s from other c i t y areas. 73 The factors considered i n the choice of a residence were noted as being important by a greater proportion of f a m i l i e s from each area of o r i g i n , than were reasons f o r moving from the previous residence. No single reason f o r moving was considered to have been important by more than 50% of the f a m i l i e s . In contrast, there were many factors of the r e s i d e n t i a l environment considered important by more than 50$ of the f a m i l i e s from each area i n t h e i r choice of a residence. I I I . Hypotheses Related to School Areas A. Hypotheses Related to the Choice of a Residence Hypothesis three and i t s corresponding sub-hypotheses predicted that s i g n i f i c a n t differences would e x i s t i n the importance attached to r e s i d e n t i a l features by f a m i l i e s moving into school areas characterized by d i f f e r e n t migration streams. Dwelling unit and neighborhood features were presumed to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y important f o r f a m i l i e s who moved into school areas characterized by an in-migration from other c i t y areas. Locational factors were anticipated to be important f o r school areas characterized by an in-misration from areas outside the c i t y . 74 Table 10 Residential Features Considered Important by More Than 50% of Families from Different Origins i n the Choice of Their Home Origin of Family Residential Feature Proportion of Families Attaching Importance to the Features Families from Being near to .-job.... 55.8% other c i t y Being near to shoppine 58.3% areas Being near to recre a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s 59.2% Being near to schools 76.7% Size of home 78.3% Quality of home 75.8% Cost or rent of home 75.8% Desien or layout of home 68.3% Status of neighborhood, 50.9% Type of people i n neighborhood 58.3% Quality of schools 7.17% Families from Being near to job 73.9% the Lower Being near to re c r e a t i o n a l Mainland f a c i l i t i e s 60.9% Being near to schools 73.9% Size of home 56.5% Quality of home.. 69.6% Type of people i n • neighborhood 52.2% Quality of schools 57.4% Families from' Being near to job 68.5% areas outside Being near to shopping 77.8% the Lower Being near to re c r e a t i o n a l Mainland f a c i l i t i e s 79.6% Being near to schools 85.2% Size of home 57.4% Quality of home 6A.8% Cost or rent of home 72.2% Type of people i n neighbor-hood..... 51.9% Quality of schools 82.6% SOURCE: Crosstabulation of question 23 (factors important i n the choice of a home)with question 9 (the migration streams) of the questionnaire. * Lower Mainland does not include Vancouver C i t y . 75 To te s t the hypotheses, question 2, which indicated the school area into which a family had transferred, was crosstabulated with questions 22 and 23, which as previously stated, portrayed the factors considered important by fam i l i e s i n the se l e c t i o n of a residence. Residential features which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r school areas characteriz by d i f f e r e n t migration streams are l i s t e d with t h e i r corresponding l e v e l s of si g n i f i c a n c e i n Table 11 The features of the dwelling unit i t s e l f were considered to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important i n the Lord Kitchener area, which i s characterized by a net in-misration of families from other areas i n Vancouver C i t y , than i n the Lord Roberts area, characterized by a large i n f l u x of f a m i l i e s from areas outside the Lower Mainland. In the Lord Tennyson area, characterized by a net out-migration t<"» other c i t y schools, the responses to the r e s i d e n t i a l variables were, i n most cases, closest to the average f o r the sample. Size was considered to be important by 82.1$ of the f a m i l i e s who moved into the Lord Kitchener area, but by only 50.8% of the fa m i l i e s who moved into Lord Roberts area. Quality of home was noted as important by 87.2$ of migrants into the Lord Kitchener 'area, 7 6 but only 57.4% of those who moved into Lord Roberts area. Of the fam i l i e s who moved into Lord Kitchener area, 87.2% and 71.8% s p e c i f i e d cost and design of home, respectively, to be relevant to t h e i r choice of home. This contrasted with 62.3% and 37.7% for the Lord Roberts area. Table 11 Features Important i n the Choice of a Home Which Varied S i g n i f i c a n t l y Between School Areas Characterized by Di f f e r e n t Migration Streams Feature Level of Significance Being near to shopping 005 Size of home 005 Quality of home 025 Cost or rent of home 05 Design or layout of home... 005 Status of neighborhood 01 Quality of school 005 SOURCE: From chi-square values obtained by crosstabulation of question 23 (16 facto r s important i n the choice of a residence) with question 2 (school areas into which f a m i l i e s transferred) i n .questionnaire. The f a m i l i e s i n the Lord Kitchener area who sp e c i f i e d dwelling unit features to be important contributed a greater proportion of t h i s type of respondent than they 77 d i d of the t o t a l number of respondents. The reverse was true i n the Lord Roberts area. Of the respondents to the question, 29.8% and 4 6 . 6 % were f a m i l i e s who moved into Lord Kitchener and Lord Roberts school areas, r e s p e c t i v e l y . Of the f a m i l i e s who s p e c i f i e d s i z e , q u a l i t y , cost, and design -to be important, 37.6%, 38.2%, 36.6%, and 41.8% respectively had moved i n t o the Lord Kitchener area, and 36.5%, 39.3%, 40.9%, and 34.3%, respectively, into the Lord Roberts area. Neighborhood c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important for fa m i l i e s which had moved into the Lord Kitchener area than into the Lord Roberts area. Status of neighborhood was indicated to be important by 69.2% of migrants into Lord Kitchener, but only by 39.3% of those who moved into Lord Roberts. S i m i l a r l y , q u a l i t y of.school was more important f o r those who moved into Lord Kitchenerj 87.2% indicated i t to be important i n contrast to 54.1% f o r Lord Roberts. Of the respondents who noted status of neighborhood and qu a l i t y of school to be important, 42.2% and 38.6%, respectively, were migrants i n t o Lord Kitchener, while 37.5% were fa m i l i e s which had moved into the Lord Roberts area f o r both varia b l e s . 78 There was only one l o c a t i o n a l variable ( a c c e s s i b i l i t y to shopping) f o r which migrants into the d i f f e r e n t school areas responded i n a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t manner, i t was most important f o r f a m i l i e s which had moved into the Lord Roberts area, beine depicted by 82.0% of them. Only 64.1% of migrants into the Lord Kitchener area did likewise. Other l o c a t i o n a l variables, such as nearness to job and r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , were considered important by f a m i l i e s moving int o a l l three school areas, but there was l i t t l e v a r i a t i o n i n the proportions between school areas. Although there has been s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n i n the importance attached to r e s i d e n t i a l features between school areas, considerable importance was attached to most r e s i d e n t i a l features i n a l l the school areas. Table 12 delineates r e s i d e n t i a l features s p e c i f i e d as important by more than 50% of the in-migrants, and the proportion of f a m i l i e s i n each school area noting them to be important. 79 Table 12 Residential Features Considered Important by More Than 50% of Families Migrating into School Areas Characterized by Different Migration Streams School Areas Feature Proportion of Families Attaching . Importance to the Feature Lord Roberts Being near to job 70.5% Being near to snooping 82.0% Being near to recreational f a c i l i t i e s . . . . 75»4% Being near to schools 83.6% Size of home.... 50.8% Quality of home 57.4% Quality of school 54.1% Lord Being near to job 64.5% Tennyson Being near to recreational f a c i l i t i e s 54.8?b Being near to schools 64.5% Size of home 71.0% Quality of home 64.5% Cost or rent of home 67.7% Design or layout of home.... 51.6% Type of people in neighborhood 54.8% Quality of school 67.7% Lord Being near to job 69.2% Kitchener Being near to shopping 64.1% Being near to recreational f a c i l i t i e s 71.8% Being near to schools 84.6% Size of home 82.1% Quality of home 87.2% Cost or rent 87.2% Design or layout 66.7% Status of neighborhood 69.2% Type of people in neighborhood 66.7% Quality of school 87.2% SOURCE: Crosstabulation of question 23 (factors important in the choice of a heme) with question 2 (school areas into which families had transferred) of the questionnaire 80 B. Hypothesis Related to Reasons f o r Out-Migration The expectation that r e s i d e n t i a l features would contribute to the out-migration of f a m i l i e s from c i t y school areas to other parts of the c i t y was stated i n hypothesis four. In addition, t h i s hypothesis anticipated that r e s i d e n t i a l features would be s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important i n school areas characterized by f a m i l i e s moving to other c i t y school areas. This hypothesis was tested by crosstabulating question 10, i n d i c a t i n g the area from which the household had transferred, with question 18 and 19, describing the reasons f o r movement out of the previous residence. I t was expected that more than 50% of the fa m i l i e s which migrated from the three school areas would indicate some features of the residence to have been more important than others. In p a r t i c u l a r , i t was expected that f a m i l i e s migrating from the Lord Tennyson area would attach s i g n i f i c a n t l y more importance to r e s i d e n t i a l features than f a m i l i e s moving from the other school areas, as t h i s school area was chararacterized by a net out-migration to other school areas i n the c i t y . There was l i t t l e support f o r the hypothesis. The only two variables considered important by more than 50% of the respondents from any school area were size of home and the desire to l i v e i n a nicer home and/or 81 neighborhood, ^he former was noted as important by 55.6$, 44.8%, and 55.6% of the respondents which moved from Lord Roberts, Lord Tennyson, and Lord Kitchener, respectively. The desire to l i v e i n a nicer home and/or neighborhood was s p e c i f i e d by 48.1%, 62.1%, and 50.0% of the f a m i l i e s from Lord Roberts, Lord Tennyson, and Lord Kitchener, r e s p e c t i v e l y . "Too much t r a f f i c " was the only variable which was s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t at the .05 l e v e l . Of those considering t h i s to be an important reason for out-migration, 52.0% came from the Lord Tennyson area which contributed 39.2% of the respondents. Of the f a m i l i e s movine out of t h i s area, 44.8% noted i t to be important, while 37.0% and 11.1% of the f a m i l i e s moving from Lord Roberts and Lord Kitchener, respectively, s p e c i f i e d i t to be important. 0 IV. An Examination of Other S i g n i f i c a n t Differences  Among Migration Streams a n d Among School A r e a s Demographic, socio-economic, and housing variables plus areas considered i n the choice of a residence and reasons f o r considering the areas were examined to determine the existence of s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t differences between the migration streams (families from d i f f e r e n t origins moving into c i t y school areas) 8 2 and between the school areas. In the case of the areas considered i n the choice of a residence and the reasons f o r considering the areas, the variations i n the responses were too varied to permit any s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s to emerge. Neither were there s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t socio-economic differences among the d i f f e r e n t migration streams. However, among the school areas there were some s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t demographic and socio-economic differences. For both the school areas and the migration streams, differences i n housing type and tenure were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . Ao Demographic Variables Variables describing the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the family which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t at the .05 l e v e l were type of family, single versus two-parent f a m i l i e s ; age of oldest c h i l d ; and the composition of the family, described i n terms of the ages of the ch i l d r e n . V.hile most f a m i l i e s i n the three school areas included two parents, a s i g n i f i c a n t l y greater percentage of single-parent f a m i l i e s moved into the Lord Roberts area. Of the single-parent f a m i l i e s , 63.4% had moved into the Lord Roberts area, although f a m i l i e s moving 83 i n t o t h i s area constituted only 47.4% of the t o t a l respondents to the question. Of a l l the f a m i l i e s moving into the Lord Roberts area, 36.5% were single-parent f a m i l i e s . The number of children i n the family was s i g n i f i c a n t l y smaller for the Lord Roberts area and larger f o r the Lord Kitchener area. Of f a m i l i e s t r a n s f e r r i n g into the Lord Roberts area, 60.3% were one-child f a m i l i e s ; and, of those migrating into the Lord Kitchener area, 51.3% were fa m i l i e s with three ch i l d r e n or more. Of those moving into the Lord Tennyson area, the greatest proportion were fam i l i e s with two childr e n ( 3 8 . 7 % ) . In regard to the age of the oldest c h i l d , there was a s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t percentage of f a m i l i e s with the oldest c h i l d of elementary age i n the Lord Roberts area - 87.3% of the f a m i l i e s moving into the area. The greatest percentage of f a m i l i e s with the oldest c h i l d i n secondary school existed i n the Lord Tennyson area, where 45.2% of in-migrating f a m i l i e s had a c h i l d i n t h i s category. S i m i l a r l y , i n terms of the ages of children i n the family, Lord Tennyson had the greatest proportion of f a m i l i e s with some children i n the secondary grades. 84 The greatest percentage of f a m i l i e s moving into both Lord Tennyson and Lord Roberts had just elementary childre n - 4 8 . 4 $ and 6 8 . 3 % , r e s p e c t i v e l y . The school area characterized by the greatest proportion of i n -migrating f a m i l i e s with some pre-school age c h i l d r e n was Lord Kitchener, with 3 8 . 5 $ of such f a m i l i e s . Almost the same proportion were fa m i l i e s with only elementary ch i l d r e n ( 3 5 . 9 $ ) . B. Socio-Economic Variables S t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t socio-economic differences e x i s t i n g among the school areas concerned occupation categories and income l e v e l s . The migrants into Lord Kitchener area tended to be managers i n large operations and professionals ( 5 1 . 2 $ ) . Only 3 3 . 3 $ and 1 9 . 6 $ i n the Lord Tennyson and Lord Roberts areas, respectively,were i n t h i s category. In both of the l a t t e r two school areas, c l e r i c a l workers and craftsmen were almost equally represented - 3 3 . 3 % i n Lord Tennyson and 3 4 o 4 % i n the Lord Roberts area. They comprised the major occupational group f o r Lord Roberts, and the second major one f o r Lord Tennyson. Lord Kitchener was also characterized by the -largest proportion of in-migrating families with high incomes. Of the f a m i l i e s moving into t h i s area, 5 7 . 8 % had incomes of $ 1 2 , 0 0 0 per annum or more. This 8 5 contrasted with 24.7% f o r the Lord Tennyson area, and 19.3% f o r the Lord Roberts area. The greatest proportion of f a m i l i e s with incomes of le s s than $6000 per annum h»d moved into the Lord Roberts area (71.0%). S i m i l a r l y , the greatest percentage with incomes between $6000 and $8999 per annum were migrants into the Lord Tennyson area (41.2%). Co- Housing Variables The housing variables which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t were type and tenure of present and previous home, and changes i n both the size and cost of housing. Families from outside the Lower Mainland had migrated primarily into apartments (71.5%). Of these f a m i l i e s , three-quarters were i n apartment blocks of more than four s t o r i e s . Over one-half of the f a m i l i e s coming from the Lower Mainland (56.5%) moved int o converted suites and apartments, the l a t t e r being mainly i n buildings of four s t o r i e s or l e s s . Of f a m i l i e s moving from other c i t y areas, 70% moved into single attached or detached homes, or town houses. There were s i g n i f i c a n t differences among the school areas regarding the type of dwelling unit into which f a m i l i e s had moved. The greatest proportion 86 of migrants into the Lord Roberts area moved into apartments i n buildings of more than four s t o r i e s (65.6$), while i n the Lord Tennyson area, they moved into apartments i n buildings of four s t o r i e s and less (32„3%). Single detached units were chosen by 94.6$ of migrants into the Lord Kitchener area. Other .housing types which were important i n the Lord Tennyson area were single attached (22.6$) and single detached (22.6$) u n i t s . There were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t differences among the types of homes from which f a m i l i e s of various o r i g i n s had moved as approximately the same proportion (61$) from each area moved from what would be considered suitable family accommodation - single family dwelling units (single detached), duplexes (single attached), and town houses. However, for f a m i l i e s moving into the three school areas, there were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t differences between the school areas i n the type of dwelling unit from which the family had moved. A s i g n i f i c a n t percentage of . f a m i l i e s which moved into Lord Kitchener had previously occupied "suitable family accommodation" (89.5%). In contrast, only 54.1% and 51.6% of migrants into Lord Roberts and Lord Tennyson, respectively, had moved from t h i s type of housing. 87 For f a m i l i e s moving out of the school areas, differences i n the type of housing into which they moved were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , as the majority from a l l school areas moved into single family dwelling units, duplexes, or town houses. Tenure of present home was s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the three school areas. In the Lord Kitchener area, 87.2% of the f a m i l i e s moved into self-owned u n i t s . In the other school areas, however, th* majority of migrants moved into r e n t a l units, 98.4% and 71.0% i n the Lord Roberts and Lord Tennyson areas, respectively. Tenure of present dwelling unit was also s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t for the d i f f e r e n t migration streams. The majority of fa m i l i e s moving within the c i t y transferred to self-owned units, while the majority of those moving into c i t y areas from the Lower Mainland (73.9%) and from areas outside the Lower Mainland (86.0%) chose r e n t a l u n i t s . Tenure of present dwelling unit was also s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r f a m i l i e s moving out of the three school areas. Most of the f a m i l i e s from the Lord Roberts area moved into, r e n t a l units (66.7%), while the majority of fa m i l i e s from Lord Tennyson (51.7%) and Lord Kitchener (77.8%) moved into self-owned u n i t s . 88 There were s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n both changes i n l i v i n g scace and cost of housing among school areas. A s i g n i f i c a n t proportion of f a m i l i e s which moved into Lord Kitchener area increased t h e i r l i v i n g space (66.7%) and t h e i r housing costs ( 7 6 . 3 % ) . In contrast, only a few fa m i l i e s moving int o the Lord Roberts area increased t h e i r l i v i n g space - ( 9 . 8 % ) , and le s s than one-half (48.2%) increased t h e i r housing costs. While less than one-half of the f a m i l i e s moving in t o Lord Tennyson increased t h e i r l i v i n g space ( 4 8 . 4 % ) , more than one-half (61.3%) increased t h e i r housing costs. Changes i n both l i v i n g space and costs were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r f a m i l i e s moving out of the three school areas. Only change i n l i v i n g space was s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t for the d i f f e r e n t migration streams. Families moving from other areas i n the c i t y increased t h e i r l i v i n g space ( 6 0 . 8 % ) , while f a m i l i e s from areas outside the Lower Mainland decreased t h e i r space ( 5 7 . 1 % ) . Of those from the Lower Mainland, the greatest percentage decreased t h e i r l i v i n g space ( 3 9 . 1 % ) . However, an almost eauivalent proportion maintained the amount which they had i n t h e i r previous residence ( 3 4 . 8 % ) . 89 CHAPTER V: DISCUSSION OF RESULTS I. Limitations of the Sample While s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n was found among features important i n the choice of a residence by f a m i l i e s moving into Vancouver City school areas from d i f f e r e n t areas of o r i g i n , these differences may be s p e c i f i c to the sample, and not representative of the c i t y as a whole 0 Two l o c a t i o n a l features, nearness to shopping and r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s , were s i g n i f i c a n t l y important f o r f a m i l i e s moving from areas outside the Lower Mainland into Vancouver Cit y . Most of these f a m i l i e s , however, moved into the Lord Roberts area, within walking distance of most services. Nearness to shopping might not, f o r example, have been s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important f o r these in-mie-rants than migrants from other areas, were the former to move to other parts of the c i t y . While l o c a t i o n to job was considered important i n the choice of a residence by a greater proportion of migrants from outside the c i t y than by i n t r a - c i t y migrants, i t was also s p e c i f i e d to be important by more than 50% of the l a t t e r group. The differences 90 among the migrant groups were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y -s i g n i f i c a n t o This could have been partly a function of the l o c a t i o n of the Lord Kitchener school area into which a large proportion of the i n t r a - c i t y migrants were t r a n s f e r r i n g . The school area i s located i n proximity to the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, where a considerable proportion of the in-migrating household heads were employed. Dwelling unit features (size, cost, and design of home) were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important for f a m i l i e s moving within Vancouver City than for other migration streams, although more than 50$ of the f a m i l i e s from areas outside the c i t y attached importance to dwelling unit features. I t i s therefore possible, f o r example, that such f a m i l i e s moving into sections of the c i t y other than the Lord Roberts school area, located near downtown, would attach as much importance to dwelling unit features as i n t r a - c i t y migrants. S i m i l a r l y , s i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the type and tenure of housing into which f a m i l i e s moved, as well as the change i n l i v i n g space which they experienced as a r e s u l t of the move, could have been p a r t l y due to the nature of the sample. For example, rented apartments i n buildings of more than four s t o r i e s and a decrease i n l i v i n g space were related s i g n i f i c a n t l y 91 to f a m i l i e s moving into c i t y areas from places outside the Lower Mainland. However, i n the sample, these in-migrants moved mostly into the Lord Roberts area, containing most of the r e n t a l accommodation i n the form of high-rise buildines i n Vancouver C i t y . This housing pattern i s not repeated i n other parts of the c i t y . While the r e s u l t s of the survey cannot necessarily be generalized completely to the school d i s t r i c t as a whole, they point to the factors which should be considered i n a s i m i l a r examination of other parts of the school d i s t r i c t . I I . Comparison of Results of Survey for Migration  Streams with Results for School Areas S i g n i f i c a n t differences i n the features which were considered important i n the choice of a residence were f o r the most part r e f l e c t e d i n the r e s i d e n t i a l features which were s i g n i f i c a n t l y important i n school areas characterized by d i f f e r e n t migration streams. Dwelling unit features (size, cost, and design), f o r example, were important f o r f a m i l i e s moving within the c i t y and f o r the Lord Kitchener area, characterized by migration from other areas i n the c i t y . Location to shopping was important i n the choice of a home for both migrants from areas outside the 92 Lower Mainland, and f o r the Lord Roberts area, characterized by t h i s migration stream. Self-owned single family dwelling units and an increase i n l i v i n g space were s t a t i s t i c a l l y important to f a m i l i e s who moved into c i t y school areas from other c i t y areas and into the Lord Kitchener area. Rented apartments i n buildings of more than four s t o r i e s and a decrease i n l i v i n g space were s i g n i f i c a n t f o r families who moved from areas outside the Lower Mainland and into the Lord Roberts area. School areas, however, are affected by more than one migration stream, and t h i s has resulted i n s i g n i f i c a n t differences among school areas not e x i s t i n g among the migration streams characterizing the school areas. In other cases, differences which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t for the migration streams were not s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the school areas which they characterized. Neighborhood features i n the choice of a residence, for example, were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the migration streams, but they were f o r the school areas. Status of neighborhood and q u a l i t y of schools were s i g n i f i c a n t l y important f o r the Lord Kitchener area. The type of dwelling unit out of which fa m i l i e s had moved was not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the migration streams, but Was.significantly important 93 f o r the Lord Kitchener area. Three-quarters of the f a m i l i e s who moved into t h i s school area moved out of single family dwelling units . S i g n i f i c a n t socio-economic and demographic differences existed f o r the school areas, but not f o r the migration streams which characterized them. For example, single-parent and one-child f a m i l i e s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y important f o r the Lord Roberts area, and f a m i l i e s of three childr e n and more fo r the Lord Kitchener area. The school area with the greatest proportion of secondary school age childr e n was Lord Tennyson, and that with the greatest percentage of pre-school age ch i l d r e n was Lord Kitchener. Higher income fa m i l i e s were s i g n i f i c a n t i n the Lord Kitchener area and lower income f a m i l i e s i n the Lord Roberts area. S i m i l a r l y , professionals and managers of large-scale operations characterized Lord Kitchener, while c l e r i c a l workers and craftsmen were the most dominant occuoational group i n the Lord Roberts area. There were fewer differences which were s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the migration streams but not f o r the school areas which they characterized. Nearness to r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s was important f o r migrants from areas outside the Lower Mainland, but not for the Lord Roberts area. Increases and decreases i n l i v i n g space characterized f a m i l i e s who moved within the c i t y and into the c i t y 94 from places outside the Lower Mainland, res p e c t i v e l y . Changes i n l i v i n e space, however, were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the school areas. For the sample as a whole, there were several s i g n i f i c a n t reasons f o r the movement of f a m i l i e s from one area i n the c i t y to another: reasons related to the dwelling unit ("home too -run down", "home too large or small", "did not l i k e design of home", "offerre d a good price f o r home," "landlord sold home"); and reasons related to the neighborhood ("neighborhood too run down", "too much t r a f f i c " ) . However, i n terms of the out-migration of f a m i l i e s from the three sampled school areas to other parts of the metropolitan area, the only s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t variable was "too much t r a f f i c " . I t was most important i n the school area characterized by a net out-migration to other parts of the c i t y . The preceding r e s u l t s demonstrate the necessity of analyzing more than the factors a f f e c t i n g the dominant migration stream which characterizes the school area. Such factors do suggest those which should be investigated, but an analysis on a school area basis y i e l d s more d e t a i l and s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t information. 95 CHAPTER VI: IMPLICATIONS FOR PLANNING Changes i n migration l e v e l s have hampered the accurate p r e d i c t i o n of elementary student populations and have contributed to an imbalance i n demand f o r e x i s t i n g educational f a c i l i t i e s and to an increase i n the per p u p i l cost of education. The re s u l t s of the present study suggest factors which may be incorporated into a technique for the pr e d i c t i o n of student enrollments to make i t more comprehensive than those generally adopted by educational planners. In addition, the r e s u l t s suggest the means by which educational planners may shape migration patterns, c o n t r o l l i n g to some extent the migration of students from school areas and the school d i s t r i c t . Making an attempt to influence the migration patterns which a f f e c t student populations represents a marked change from the t r a d i t i o n a l approach of educational planners. The basic function of school boards has been to provide the necessary f a c i l i t i e s to accommodate changes i n student population l e v e l s (Public Schools Act, Sections 158, 177). I. The Prediction of Student Enrollments The incorporation of those factors suggested by the study into a projection of elementary school enrollments 96 would e n t a i l not only a comprehensive approach to the pr e d i c t i o n process, but would involve cooperation with other governmental agencies. The movement of families from the suburban areas i n t o Vancouver C i t y i s a migration stream which does not a f f e c t "the student populations of either the s p e c i f i c school areas or the entire c i t y school d i s t r i c t as much as other migration streams do. Nevertheless i t does counteract the flow from the c i t y to the suburbs and i s susceDtible to d r a s t i c change. For example, moving closer to work, which was s i g n i f i c a n t l y important f o r t h i s migration stream, could p o s s i b l y cease to be relevant i f rapid t r a n s i t were developed. It i s therefore necessary that educational planners be aware of plans f o r major transportation developments and t h e i r impacts on r e s i d e n t i a l developments. This e n t a i l s communication with the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , which would be responsible f o r i n i t i a t i n g major transportation developments i n Metropolitan Vancouver. In projecting the number of f a m i l i e s moving from areas outside Metropolitan Vancouver into the Vancouver School D i s t r i c t , planners of school f a c i l i t i e s should consider the employment s i t u a t i o n i n Metropolitan 9 7 Vancouver r e l a t i v e to other centres i n Canada. "Change of job" was one of the main reasons f o r migration from areas outside Metropolitan Vancouver into Vancouver C i t y . "Other reasons" was an add i t i o n a l , important variable to which t h i s migration stream responded i n the questionnaire. These included p o l i t i c a l and c l i m a t i c considerations, and the desire to l i v e i n a d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r a l s e t t i n g . Some immigrants from other countries, f o r example, Tanzania, moved f o r p o l i t i c a l reasons, while Vancouver's mild climate influenced in-migrants from other parts of Canada. I t i s therefore necessary to consider the cl i m a t i c and c u l t u r a l attractiveness of Metropolitan Vancouver, r e l a t i v e to other areas i n Canada, and to take into account Canadian immigration p o l i c y . C a l i b r a t i o n of the employment s i t u a t i o n i n Metropolitan Vancouver r e l a t i v e to other areas, and estimation of the addit i o n a l e f f e c t which c l i m a t i c and c u l t u r a l conditions have on in-migration would be f a c i l i t a t e d i f the Vancouver School Board Planning Department worked i n cooperation with the l o c a l research branch of the Manpower and Immigration Department. The l a t t e r has monthly records of the unemployment s i t u a t i o n i n Metropolitan Vancouver and other areas i n Canada. In addition, they are attempting to develop a model to 98 predict the demand f o r labor i n Metropolitan Vancouver. Migration from other parts of Canada and other countries are e s s e n t i a l components of t h e i r model. An understanding of the factors which a f f e c t the movement of households i n Metropolitan Vancouver from outside areas w i l l a s s i s t i n the projection of student enrollments, but w i l l not provide a complete understanding of the migration process. I t w i l l not indicate the extent to which the in-miprants w i l l move into Vancouver C i t y as opposed to the suburban areas of Metropolitan Vancouver, nor w i l l i t depict the extent to which these in-migrants w i l l move into s p e c i f i c areas i n Vancouver C i t y . The fa c t o r s which a f f e c t the migration of fam i l i e s from areas outside Metropolitan Vancouver into Vancouver C i t y are r e s i d e n t i a l features. A l i m i t e d supply of the features which are important to t h i s migration stream i n c e r t a i n areas of the c i t y and i n the school d i s t r i c t r e l a t i v e to suburban areas would cause these migrants to s e t t l e i n other parts of the c i t y and the suburban areas, respectively. The r e s i d e n t i a l features considered important by more than 50 percent of the respondents from areas outside Metropolitan Vancouver were a c c e s s i b i l i t y to job and services (shopping, r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s and 99 schools); housing (size, q u a l i t y , and cost); and neighborhood (type of people and q u a l i t y of school). A c c e s s i b i l i t y to shopping and r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important for t h i s group of in-migrants than f o r other groups. However, t h i s may-have been partly due to the nature of the sample. S i m i l a r l y , rented apartments i n high-rise buildings, which were the dwelling unit type and tenure chosen by t h i s group, may have been s p e c i f i c to the sample. Nevertheless, the r e s i d e n t i a l features which were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important f o r t h i s group than f o r other groups, i n addition to those noted to be important by a majority of these in-migrants, should be considered i n the p r e d i c t i o n of enrollments i n school areas other than those sampled. In order to use these r e s i d e n t i a l features as a means of predicting changes i n migration l e v e l s , planners must quantify them. For example, cost of home was noted to be important i n the choice of a residence by 72.2% of the f a m i l i e s moving into Vancouver Ci t y from places outside Metropolitan Vancouver. In order to use t h i s i n a pred i c t i o n of the movement of these f a m i l i e s into s p e c i f i c school areas i n Vancouver City and into the entire school d i s t r i c t , planners 100 must know the cost of housing i n the s p e c i f i c areas of the c i t y , and i n the c i t y r e l a t i v e to other parts of Metropolitan Vancouver. It i s not e s s e n t i a l that the Vancouver School Board Planning Department quantify a l l the r e s i d e n t i a l features themselves. Data on type, tenure, and q u a l i t y of housing exist at Vancouver City H a l l , i n both the planning department and the assessment department. Similar information f o r the other m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n Metropolitan Vancouver could possibly be obtained from other municipal planning departments and from the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t . The costs of self-owned dwelling units may be obtained from the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, and housing s t a r t s and completions from the l o c a l branch of Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation. However, other information, such as the rents of apartments and type of people i n a neighborhood, i s not r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . Obtaining and quantifying t h i s information w i l l require cooperation between the Vancouver School Board Planning Department and other planning agencies. A q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of housing and neighborhood facto r s would also be necessary i n order to predict^ the movement of f a m i l i e s within the c i t y and from the c i t y to the suburban areas. Dwelling unit and 101 neighborhood features were more important f o r the i n t r a - c i t y migrants than they were f o r f a m i l i e s moving from outside into Vancouver Cit y . Size, condition, and qual i t y of home, and neighborhood conditions, such as excessive t r a f f i c and run-down neighborhoods, were s i g n i f i c a n t l y important reasons f o r moving from one residence to another within Vancouver C i t y . In the choice of a d i f f e r e n t residence, the i n t r a - c i t y migrants and fa m i l i e s moving from the c i t y to the suburban areas attached s i g n i f i c a n t l y more importance to size , cost, and design of home than did other migrants. The quani f i c a t i o n of these fa c t o r s f o r the purpose of predicting enrollments would be f a c i l i t a t e d i f the school planning department worked i n conjunction with the government agencies previously mentioned: City H a l l assessment and planning departments, other rrlunicipal planning departments, the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , and Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of housing and neighborhood factors f o r the purposes of predicting student enrollments should be done on a school area basis and then aggregated for the school d i s t r i c t as a whole. -The r e s i d e n t i a l and neighborhood factors which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the migration streams did not always correspond to those which were s i g n i f i c a n t 102 f o r the school areas which they characterized. The converse was always true. In addition, the study depicted s i g n i f i c a n t differences among the ages and s i z e s of f a m i l i e s moving into the s p e c i f i c school areas. Both types of demographic data are of value i n p r e d i c t i n g enrollments. I I . The Shaping of Migration Streams Any attempt to influence the migration streams a f f e c t i n g elementary student enrollments would also necessitate cooperation with other governmental planning departments because l o c a l school boards do not have the delegated power to introduce the necessary programs and p o l i c i e s . This cooperation could either be "informal" and " u n o f f i c i a l " or "formal". In the case of the former, the school board would recommend changes to the p a r t i c u l a r planning agency involved. In the l a t t e r , the school board would have a vote i n the decision to implement p o l i c i e s and programs. The two approaches can be demonstrated with the following example. Some of the factors which have contributed to the migration of f a m i l i e s from some c i t y school areas to other parts of the c i t y were those characterizing the decline of neighborhoods as r e s i d e n t i a l areas. These were run-down homes and neighborhoods; 103 and too much t r a f f i c i n the neighborhoods. Too much t r a f f i c may r e s u l t from a number of causes: a major a r t e r i a l road through a r e s i d e n t i a l area, a change i n housing type, and/or commercial and i n d u s t r i a l encroachment into a r e s i d e n t i a l area. Run down neighborhoods and homes are often associated with each other and with an excessive amount of t r a f f i c . An " u n o f f i c i a l " approach to the prevention of the decline of school areas as r e s i d e n t i a l areas would involve recommendations such as the following to either c i t y council or to those c i t y planning o f f i c i a l s proposing changes: that major a r t e r i a l roads not be b u i l t through r e s i d e n t i a l areas, and that zoning not be changed to allow uses which increase the volume of t r a f f i c i n school areas. S i m i l a r l y , an " u n o f f i c i a l " approach used to counteract and change areas characterized by excessive t r a f f i c , and homes and neighborhoods which are run down,would involve recommendations to govenmental agencies. For example, zoning changes and changes i n t r a f f i c regulations would be proposed to c i t y planning o f f i c i a l s or aldermen, while r e h a b i l i t a t i o n programs could be suggested to Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation. An " o f f i c i a l " approach to shaping migration streams would mean that school board representatives could 104 vote on zoning changes and other measures designed to implement p o l i c i e s and programs, or have representation . on the zoning board i n an o f f i c i a l advisory capacity. In order to be able to do so, however, changes i n both the Municipal Act and the Public Schools Act are necessary. I t would be d i f f i c u l t to convince the p r o v i n c i a l government of the necessity f o r t h i s . A documentation of the e f f e c t s which municipal programs have on student enrollments would be necessary. This would also be necessary i n order to portray to c i t y h a l l planning o f f i c i a l s and aldermen the consequences of the measures which they intend to adopt. Otherwise they, and other government agencies, may tend to ignore recommendations made by the school board. I I I . The Adaptation of Educational Plans to Meet the  E f f e c t s of Migration It i s not only necessary that the school board provide evidence to convince municipal and p r o v i n c i a l o f f i c i a l s of the consequences of measures which they adopt. I t i s also e s s e n t i a l f o r school boards to develop close communications with these agencies i n order that they understand the reasons f o r proposed" changes. Measures of benefit to the school board may be detrimental to several groups of people or to the c i t y as a whole. In such a case, i t would be 105 u n r e a l i s t i c to expect that the school board's recommendations would be adopted. However, an awareness of the l i k e l i h o o d of such an occurrence would permit educational planners to adjust t h e i r plans accordingly. For example, i n areas which are l i k e l y to experience out-migration of students, classrooms may be created such that they can be converted e a s i l y f o r other uses. They could be i n the form of classrooms either decentralized i n a number of buildings, or i n a multi-purpose b u i l d i n g . IV. Summary The pre d i c t i o n of elementary school enrollments and the influencing of migration streams which a f f e c t student enrollments necessitates a more v e r s a t i l e approach to planning educational f a c i l i t i e s than has been done i n the past, and greater cooperation with other planning 'agencies. The l a t t e r i s important i f educational planners are to f a c i l i t a t e the p r e d i c t i o n of school enrollments and to counteract or prevent factors which a f f e c t student populations i n undesirable ways. At the same time i t provides the educational planner with the opportunity to determine the p r o b a b i l i t y of implementation of programs and measures which are detrimental to school planning objectives, but are of benefit to other groups within 106 the c i t y . This permits him to adjust his plans to the s i t u a t i o n and avoid i n e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n of the school board's resources. 107 BIBLIOGRAPHY Brown, L. A. and E. G. Moore. 1971. "The Intra-Urban Migration Process: A Perspective", i n Interna]  Structure of the City, ed. L. S. Bourne, New York, p. 200-209. Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s . 1963. Snecial Labor Force  Report. Geographic M o b i l i t y and Employment Status, Washington, D.C., h~. Butler, E. W., G. Sabagh, and M. D. Van Arsdol. 1963. "Demographic and S o c i a l Psychological Factors i n Residential Mobility", Sociology and S o c i a l Research, 48, P. 139-154. Butler, E. W., et a l . 1969. Moving Behavior and  Residential Choice. National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report No. 81, Washington: Highway Research Board National Academy of Sciences. Chevan, A. 1971. "Family Growth, Household Density and Moving", Demography, Vol. 8, No. 4, p. 451-458. Cole, N. 1972. "School Annex Not Needed: Uprooted fam i l i e s t o l d 'Sorry'", The Sun f June 22, p. 1. Council of Educational F a c i l i t y Planners. 1969. Guide for Planning Educational F a c i l i t i e s , Columbus, Ohio. Courchene, T. J. 1971. " I n t e r p r o v i n c i a l Migration and Economic Adjustment", Canadian Journal of Economics, 3, p. 551-576. Dennett, C. 1973. "Calgary t e l l s i t s suburbs to use downtown schools", Toronto Star, Jan. 1, p. 5. Deutschman, H. D. 1971. "The Residential Location Decision: Study of Residential Mobility", Socio-Economic  Planning Sciences, Vol. 6, No. 4, p. 349-364. Dudley, K. and E. Huyck. 1956. "Overseers Migration From Europe Since World War I I " i n Demographic Analysis, eds. J. J . Spengler and 0. Dudley, I l l i n o i s : Free Press, p. 297-364. "Economic and S o c i a l Factors A f f e c t i n g Migration". 1953. Ch. IV i n Determinants and Consequences of Population  Trends, United Nations, p. 9 8 - 1 3 5 . 108 Fabricant, F. A. 1970. "An Expectational Model of Migration", Journal of Regional Science,, 10, p. 13-25. Foote, N. N. J . Abu-Lughod, M. M. Foley, and L. Winnick. I960. Housing Choices and Constraints. New York: McGraw H i l l Book Co. Freedman, R. 1967. "City Migration, Urban Ecology, and S o c i a l Theory" i n Urban Ecology, eds. E. W. Burgess and D. J. Bogue, Chicagoi University of Chicago Press, p. 92-114. .Greenwood, M. J.. 1968. "An Analysis .of the Determinants of Geographical Labor M o b i l i t y i n the United States", Review of Economics and S t a t i s t i c s , 51, p. 189-204. Greenwood, M. J . and P. T. Gormely. 1971. "A Comparison of the Determinants of White and Non-White Interstate Migration", Demography, 8, p. 141-154. "International Migration S t a t i s t i c s " . 1964. In The International Migration Digest. New York: The Missionaries of Saint Charles, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 76-87. Johnston, R. J. 1971. Urban Residential Patterns. London: G. B e l l and Sons Ltd. Laber, G. and R. Chase. 1971. " I n t e r p r o v i n c i a l Migration i n Canada as a Human Cap i t a l Decision", Journal of P o l i t i c a l Economy. 79, p. 795-808. Ladinsky, J. 1967. "Sources of Geographical M o b i l i t y Among Professional Workers: A M u l t i v a r i a t e Analysis", Demography. Vol. 4, p. 293-309. Lansing, J. B. and E. Mueller. 1967. The Geographical M o b i l i t y of Labor. Ann Arbor: Survey Research Centre, University of Michigan. Leu, J . 1965. Planning Educational F a c i l i t i e s . New York: The Centre of Applied Research i n Education Inc. L e s l i e , G. R. and A. H. Richardson. 1961. "Life-Cycle, Career Pattern, and The Decision to Move", American  S o c i o l o g i c a l Review. 25, p. 894-902. Long, L. H. 1972. "The Influence of Number and Ages of Children on Residential M o b i l i t y " , Demography. Vol. 9, No. 3, p. 371-382. 109 Lowry, I. S. 1966. Migration and Metropolitan Growth: Two A n a l y t i c a l Models. San Francisco: Chandler. Masnick, G. 1968. "Employment Status and Retrospective and Prospective Migration i n the United States", Demography, 5, p. 79-85. Mclnnis, M. 1969. " P r o v i n c i a l Migration and D i f f e r e n t i a l Economic Opportunity", i n Migration in Canada, ed. L. 0. Stone, Canada: Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s . Michelson, W. 1972. Environmental Choice: A Draft  Report on the S o c i a l Basis of Family Decisions on  Housing Type and Location i n Greater Toronto, Canada: Ministry of Urban A f f a i r s . Nie, N., D. H. Bent, and C. H. H u l l . 1970. S t a t i s t i c a l  Package For The S o c i a l Sciences,, New York: McGraw H i l l Book Company. Pape, S. W. 1959. Status and Prestige Motivational  Factors i n Residential M o b i l i t y . Unpublished Thesis, The University of B r i t i s h Columbia. Province of B r i t i s h Columbia. 1970. Public Schools Act. Rogers, A. 1968. Matrix Analysis of Interregional  Population Growth and D i s t r i b u t i o n . Berkeley: University of C a l i f o r n i a Press. Rogers, T. W. 1968. " D i f f e r e n t i a l Net Migration Patterns i n the Standard Metropolitan S t a t i s t i c a l Areas of Southern United States: 1960-60", International  Migration, 6, p. 22-32. Ross, H. L. 1961-62. "Reasons for Moves to and from a Central City area", S o c i a l Forces, 40, p. 261 - 2 6 3 . Rossi, P. H. 1955. Why Families Move. New York: The Free Press. Simmons, J. W. 1971. Net Migration Within Metropolitan  Toronto. Toronto: Center For Urban and Community Studies, University of Toronto. Speare, A.,Jr. 1970. "Home Ownership, L i f e Cycle State, and Residential Mobility", Demography, Vol. 7, No. 4, p. 449-458. 110 Spengler, J . J. 1 9 5 6 . '"Some Economic Aspects of Immigration into the Unitea States", i n Demographic Analysis, ed. J . J . Spengler and 0 . Dudley, I l l i n o i s : The Free Press, p. 2 7 7 - 2 9 6 . Stone, L. 0. 1 9 6 7 . Urban Development i n Canada. Canada: Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Sturat, F. C. 1 9 6 5 . Urban Land Use Planning. I l l i n o i s : University of I l l i n o i s Press. Thomas, B. 1 9 5 9 o "International Migration i n The Study of Population: An Inventory and Appraisal, eds. P. Hauser and 0 . Duncan, Chicago: The University of Chicago. Vanderkamp, P. 1 9 7 1 "Migration Flows, Their Determinants and the Ef f e c t s of Return Migration", Journal of P o l i t i c a l Economy. 7 9 , 1 0 1 2 - 3 2 . Ward, D. 1 9 6 8 0 "The Emergence of Central Immigrant Ghettos i n American C i t i e s : 1 8 4 0 - 1 9 2 0 " , Annals, Association of American Geographers, 5 8 , 3 4 3 - 5 9 . Weiss, S. F., K. B. Kenney, and P. C. Steffens. 1 9 6 6 . "Consumer Preferences i n Residential Location: A Preliminary Investigation of the Home Purchase Decision", Research Reviews. North Carolina: University of North Carolina, 1 3 , p . 1 - 3 2 . Whitney ¥. M. and C. M. Grigg. 1 9 5 8 . "Patterns of M o b i l i t y Among a Group of Families of College Students", American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review. 2 3 , p. 6 4 3 - 5 2 . Wolforth, J. R. 1 9 6 5 . Work Residence Relations  i n Vancouver. Unpublished Thesis, The University of B r i t i s h Columbia. Wolnert, J . 1 9 6 5 . "Behavioral Aspects of the Decision to Migrate", Papers of the Regional Science  Association. 1 5 , P. 1 5 9 - 1 6 9 . I l l APPENDIX A 1„ What are the ages of each person l i v i n g i n t h i s home? Person Under 5 5-12 13-18 19-24/ 25-2? 30-3V 3 5-39 40- 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Wife H u s b a n d Sons and Daughters Other Relatives (specify) Others (specify) 2. Which school(s) do your children attend? 3. What i s your marital status? Single Divorced Marr i e d Separated r Widowed 4. If you immigrated into Canada, what country did you come from? 5. I f you immigrated into Canada, when did you come? 6. Please indicate the educational l e v e l of the head of the house: Some High School or Less High School Diploma Some Vocational or Technical Training Some University or College University or College Degree(s) 7. What i s the occupation of the head of t h i s house? 8. Please indicate the income l e v e l of t h i s house (before taxes): Under $6000 $6000 to $8999 $9000 to $11999 ::12000 to $17999 5118000 to -$23999 $24000 and over 9. Flease check the area i n which you l i v e d just before moving here: Vancouver City Any of the following: West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby Port hoody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Surrey, Delta, White Rock, Richmond Other 10. I f yaur home just before you moved here was i n Vancouver City, what school(s) did your c h i l d or children attend? 11. Please check the type of home i n which you are now l i v i n g : Single Detached Single Attached (Duplex) Conversion (for example, a suite i n a home) Apartment (building up to 4 stories) Apartment (building 4 stories and more) Row House or Town House Other (specify) 12. Is your present home rented or owned? Rente d • Owned 13. Please check the type of home i n which you l i v e d just before you moved here: Single Detached Single Attached (Duplex) Conversion (for example, a suite in a home) Apartment (building up to 4 s t o r i e s ) . Apartment (building more than 4 stories) Row House or Town House Other (specify) 14. Was your previous home rented or owned? Rented Owned 15. How does the family l i v i n g space i n this home compare with that i n your previous home? More The Same Less 16. Compared with the size of your family when you were l i v i n g i n your previous home, what i s the size of your family now? Larger The Same Smaller 17. How do your present monthly payments (mortgage, i f buying your home, and rent, i f renting) compare with those of the home you l i v e d i n just before moving here? Kore J~~ The Same ^ Less There are many rttsons why people move out of one area ana into another one. Some people do not l i k e c e r t a i n things about t h e i r home and neighborhood. a. I f there were things you did not l i k e about your home which ware part of the reason why you moved, what v.ere these things? b. I f there were things you did not l i k e about your neighborhood which were part of the reason why you moved, what were these things? The following i s a l i s t of things which rr.ay have been of importance i n your decision to move out of your l a s t , residence. Please indicate whether they were of no importance, of some importance, or of great importance i n your decision to move: Of ito Importance Of iome Importance Of Great Importance Too f a r from playgrounds and Too f a r from daycare centers Home too costl y (rent, price of Evicted by landlord f o r a number of reasons - he did not l i k e pets, Was offered a good price f o r home.. Too much t r a f f i c i n neighborhood... Wanted to l i v e i n a nicer home 20. ••hen you were looking for a new place to l i v e , what neighborhoods or areas did you consider? 21. Why did you consider these areas? 22. What were the important reasons f or choosing your present home? 23. Hew important were each of the following i n your choice of your present home? Of No Importance Of Same Importance Of Great Importance Being near to daycare centres Being near to playgrounds and Being near to friends and r e l a t i v e s . Eeing near to people of same THANK YOU VERY K U C H FOR YOUR COOPERATION.. 114 APPENDIX B TALLY SHEET OF STUDENT TRANSFERS A-STUDENTS TRANSFERRED OUT OF THE SCHOOL New Add.-Van. . Lower Main. Outside Lower M. Same Add.-Van. P r i v a t e Sch. Other Kind. Gr. 1 Gr. 2 Gr. 3 Gr. 4 Gr. 5 Gr. 6 Gr. 7 Sp. 1 T o t a l I i B-STUDENTS TRANSFERRED INTO THE SCHOOL New Add.-Van. Lower Main,* Outside Lower M. Same Add.-Van. P r i v a t e Scb. Other Kind. Gr. 1 Gr. 2 i 1 D r . 3 p r . 4 1 & r . 5 S r . 6 Gr. 7 bp. T o t a l Ti'- A-: 1 fJew Add.-Van. = New 'address and a d i f f e r e n t school i n Vancouver C i t y . Same Add.-Van. = Same address but a d i f f e r e n t school i n Vancouver C i t y . Lower Main, and Lower M. = Lower Ma i n l a n d ( e x c l u s i v e of Vancouver C i t y ) . 116 APPENDIX C 117 Chi-square The v a l i d i t y of the various hypotheses was tested by means of the chi-square t e s t c r i t e r i o n . Stated i n simple terms, the chi-square test indicates the p r o b a b i l i t y that an observed proportion of a population possessing some at t r i b u t e i s consistent wit-h a s p e c i f i e d , or expected value f o r t h i s proportion. The SPSS crosstabulation programme used i n the analysis computed t o t a l chi-squares f o r each crosstabulation. In conjunction with the indicated degrees of freedom, the magnitude of the chi-square indicates the p r o b a b i l i t y that the observed d i s t r i b u t i o n among the crosstabulated a t t r i b u t e s i s consistent with the hypothesis that the a t t r i b u t e s are independent. Since the t o t a l chi-square refers to the d i s t r i b u t i o n among a l l the a t t r i b u t e s , i t indicates nothing about the i n d i v i d u a l a t t r i b u t e s . In instances where the t o t a l chi-square i s s i g n i f i c a n t , i . e . where the a t t r i b u t e s are not independent, i t i s i n s t r u c t i v e to examine the chi-square f o r each a t t r i b u t e combination separately i n order to discover any p a r t i c u l a r dependencies among the a t t r i b u t e s . These i n d i v i d u a l chi-squares may be considered to have one degree of-freedom f o r the purpose of assessing s i g n i f i c a n c e . 118 (This i s not s t r i c t l y correct as w i l l be shown, but the method i s i n d i c a t i v e of s i g n i f i c a n c e ) . The c a l c u l a t i o n of chi-square and the s p e c i a l method indicated above i s i l l u s t r a t e d by the following example. OBSERVED FREQUENCIES Area of Origin Change o f J o b Row No. Imo. Some Imp. Total Other c i t y areas 99 19 118 Lower Mainland 13 8 21 Outside the Lower Mainland 33 23 56 Column Total 145 50 195 I f the crosstabulated a t t r i b u t e s are independent, the expected frequencies w i l l be d i s t r i b u t e d i n proportion to the respective column and row t o t a l s . For example, the expected frequency i n column 1, row 1 w i l l be: E,, = 195x145/195 x 118/195 = 17110/195 = 87.74 The expected frequencies are as follows: EXPECTED FREQUENCIES Area of Origin Change ..of Job Row No. Imp. Some Imp. Total Other city-areas 87.74 30.26 118 .Lower Mainland 15.62 5.38 21 Outside the Lower Mainland 41.64 14.36 56 Column t o t a l 145 50 195 The chi-square f o r the entire tabulation i s calcualted from the following formula: 0^"= J>(0-E) 2 /E i . e . as the sum of the chi-squares "contributed" by each column/row c e l l . 120 These chi-square contributions are as follows: CHI-SQUARE Area of Origin Change of Job Row No. Imp. Some Imp. Total Other city-areas 1.44 4.19 5.63 Lower Mainland .44 1 .27 1.71 Outside the Lower Mainland 1 .79 5.20 6.99 Column Total 3 .67 10.66 14.33 The degrees of freedom fo r the t o t a l chi-square i s : df. = (Columns - l)x(Rows - 1) = ( 2 - l ) x ( 3 - D = 2 Considering each a t t r i b u t e comination to have 1 df. w i l l give 6 df» for the entire table; t h i s i s obviously too large. The t o t a l chi-square i s highly s i g n i f i c a n t since i t i s larger than the tabulated value of 10.60 f o r p = 0.005. The major contributions to the t o t a l chi-square arise i n column 2, rows 1 and 3» with the largest i n d i v i d u a l chi-square values. 121 The reasons why rows 1 and 3 of column 2 produced s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t chi-square values can be determined by looking at the proportions from the various areas of o r i g i n attaching importance to "change of job", r e l a t i v e to the proportions which these groups constitute of the t o t a l sample; and the proportions attaching importance to i t which are from the various areas of origin, r e l a t i v e to the proportions i n the t o t a l sample attaching importance to i t . PROPORTIONS Area of Origin Change of Job Row No , Imp. Some Imp. Total Other c i t y areas a. b. = 83.9%* = 63.3%' a. = 16.1% . b. = 38 .0% c. « 60.5% Lower Mainland a. b. = 61.9% = 9.0% a. = 38.1% b. = 1 6 . 0 % c. = 10.8% Outside the Lower Mainland a. b. = 58.9% = 22.8% a. = 41 . 1% b. = 4 6 . 0 % c. = 28.7% Column Percentage d 0 = 74.7% d. = 2 5 , 6 % 1 0 0 . 0 % where: a. = the i n d i v i d u a l row percentages, or the proportions from each area of o r i g i n •attaching importance to "change of job"; b. = the i n d i v i d u a l column percentages, or the proportions attaching importance to "change of job" being from various areas of o r i g i n ; c. = the row percentage, or the proportion of the t o t a l sample represented by respondents from each area of o r i e i n ; d. = the column percentage, or the proportion of t o t a l responses to each category of the variable (""change of job"). For example, row 1, column 2 depicts 16.1% of the f a m i l i e s from other c i t y areas as i n d i c a t i n g "change of job" to be an important reason for moving:. This i s lower than the percentage f o r the t o t a l sample (25.6%). Of those i n d i c a t i n g "change of job" to be important, 38.0% were from other c i t y areas, although t h i s group constituted 60.5% of the t o t a l responses. Row three, column 2 depicts 41.1% of the fa m i l i e s from areas outside the Lower Mainland attaching importance to "change of job" i n t h e i r decision to move. This i s higher than the proportion of the t o t a l sample attaching importance to "change of job" (25.6%). Of those i n d i c a t i n g i t to be important, 46.0% were from areas outside the Lower Mainland. This group, however, comprised only 28.7% of the respondents. Th« s i g n i f i c a n t l y s t a t i s t i c chi-square f o r the t o t a l sample, therefore, i s due to fewer respondents than expected from other c i t y areas attaching importance to to "change of j o b n , and a greater number than expected from areas outside the Lower Mainland attaching importance to i t . 

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