UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Family mobility and educational planning Skogstad, Judy Lee 1973

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FAMILY MOBILITY AND EDUCATIONAL PLANNING by JUDY LEE SKOGSTAD B.Ed., U n i v e r s i t y o f A l b e r t a ,  1968  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE  REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the School of  Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g  We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the required  THE  standard  UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May, 1973  In p r e s e n t i n g  t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements f o r  an advanced degree at the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree the  L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e  and  that  study.  I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s .  be granted by  the Head of my  I t i s understood t h a t copying or  of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be written  permission.  Department of The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada  Date  ~?y?  a  Department or publication  allowed without  my  ABSTRACT  M o b i l i t y and  i n c r e a s i n g u r b a n i z a t i o n have  r e s u l t e d i n a p a t t e r n of d i f f e r e n t i a l growth r a t e s among s c h o o l e n r o l l m e n t s . t h a t e d u c a t i o n a l planners  T h i s has n e c e s s i t a t e d develop  an  understanding  o f f a m i l y m o b i l i t y i n order t o b e t t e r p r e d i c t student p o p u l a t i o n s and maximize the use facilities.  of e x i s t i n g  school  In the p a s t , such p r e d i c t i o n s have not  u s u a l l y i n c o r p o r a t e d f a c t o r s which account f o r changes i n the separate  components o f p o p u l a t i o n .  An examination  o f elementary s c h o o l  i n Vancouver evidenced understanding  enrollments  the need f o r a more d e t a i l e d  of m i g r a t i o n .  The  present  study s e t out  t o e s t a b l i s h the impact which v a r i o u s m i g r a t i o n e x e r t e d on elementary enrollments  patterns  i n the Vancouver  S c h o o l D i s t r i c t and 'in t h r e e areas w i t h i n the  school  d i s t r i c t , which i l l u s t r a t e d d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s . Secondly,  the reasons why  c h i l d r e n move i n t o and  f a m i l i e s w i t h elementary s c h o o l  out o f s p e c i f i c  i n the c i t y were analyzed means of a q u e s t i o n n a i r e .  school  from data c o l l e c t e d  areas by  A c h i - s q u a r e t e s t was  used  t o e s t a b l i s h the s i g n i f i c a n c e of d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e responses o f each group. The m i g r a t i o n streams d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n i  ii  terms of the reasons s t a t e d f o r moving and o f importance i n the c h o i c e  o f a new  the  home.  factors  Significant  d i f f e r e n c e s i n the l a t t e r were mostly r e f l e c t e d i n s c h o o l a r e a s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n The should  study demonstrated t h a t e d u c a t i o n a l  be aware o f the m i g r a t i o n  planners  patterns a f f e c t i n g  each s c h o o l area i n t h e i r d i s t r i c t may  streams.  i n order  t h a t they  c a l c u l a t e , and wherever p o s s i b l e , i n f l u e n c e  impact o f changes i n any  the  f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e m o b i l i t y .  iii  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1  INTRODUCTION CHAPTER I : OVERVIEW I. II. III.  OF THE PROBLEM  7  Impact o f M i g r a t i o n on P o p u l a t i o n s W i t h i n the M e t r o p o l i t a n area Methods f o r P r o j e c t i n g Student Populations Vancouver as a Case Study A. The N e c e s s i t y o f A n a l y z i n g the Separate Components o f P o p u l a t i o n Change B. Problems A s s o c i a t e d w i t h the P r o j e c t i o n o f Student P o p u l a t i o n s and Net M i g r a t i o n L e v e l s  CHAPTER I I : THEORIES OF MIGRATION I. II.  III.  7 10 13 .13 20 24  Introduction  24  Reasons f o r Movement and F a c t o r s Important i n the Choice o f a Residence...25 A. Movement W i t h i n the M e t r o p o l i t a n Environment 25 1. General T h e o r i e s o f Intra-Metropolitan Migration 25 2. S p e c i f i c T h e o r i e s o f Intra-Metropolitan Migration 26 a. Changes i n Socio-Economic Status 26 b. L i f e - C y c l e Changes 27 B. Movement i n t o M e t r o p o l i t a n Areas from Outside Areas 33 1. Movement from Outside Areas Vvithin the Same Country .34 a. Economic Reasons 34 b. Non-Economic Reasons 36 2. Households Moving from Other Countries... 36 Summary  ..  ..33  Page CHAPTER I I I : METHODOLOGY I.  II.  Development o f Hypotheses A. Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o the M i g r a t i o n Streams 1. Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o the D e c i s i o n t o Move 2. Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o the Choice o f a Residence B. Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o S p e c i f i c School Areas  40  T e s t i n g o f the Hypotheses A. The B a s i s f o r t h e Sample B. The Sample C. Returns o f the Q u e s t i o n n a i r e  46 46 55 56  CHAPTER I V : SURVEY RESULTS I.  II. III.  IV.  II.  40 40  43 44  62  Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o Reasons f o r O u t - M i g r a t i o n from D i f f e r e n t O r i g i n s i n t o C i t y School Areas  62  Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o Choice o f a Residence  68  Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o S c h o o l Areas A. Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o the Choice o f a Residence B. Hypothesis R e l a t e d t o Reasons f o r Out-Migration An Examination o f Other S i g n i f i c a n t D i f f e r e n c e s Among M i g r a t i o n Streams and Among School Areas A. Demographic V a r i a b l e s B. Socio-Economic V a r i a b l e s C. Housing V a r i a b l e s  CHAPTER V : DISCUSSION OF RESULTS I.  40  73 73 80  81 82 84 85 89  L i m i t a t i o n s o f the Sample  89  Comparison o f R e s u l t s o f Survey f o r M i g r a t i o n Streams w i t h R e s u l t s f o r S c h o o l Areas  91  Page CHAPTER V I : IMPLICATIONS FOR PLANNING I. II. III.  IV.  95  The P r e d i c t i o n o f Student Enrollments....95 The Shaping o f M i g r a t i o n Streams The Adaptation  of Educational  102  Plans  t o Meet the E f f e c t s o f M i g r a t i o n  104  Summary  105  BIBLIOGRAPHY... APPENDIX A...  107 I l l  APPENDIX B  114  APPENDIX C . . .  116  vi  LIST OF TABLES  Table 1 2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  Page  E f f e c t o f D i f f e r e n t F a c t o r s on the E n r o l l m e n t i n Elementary Schools i n Vancouver C i t y  14  A c t u a l E n r o l l m e n t i n Vancouver City Elementary Grades 1969 e t Seq. Showing Percentage C o n t i n u a t i o n From Previous Grade  IS  Comparison o f P r e d i c t e d and A c t u a l Elementary E n r o l l m e n t and R e t e n t i o n R a t i o s f o r 1971 i n t h e Vancouver School D i s t r i c t  19  P r o p o r t i o n o f T o t a l T r a n s f e r s i n Each School Area, Subdivided by O r i g i n and D e s t i n a t i o n , Vancouver C i t y , 1970-71.  54  P r o p o r t i o n o f T o t a l T r a n s f e r s Sampled i n Each School Area, Subdivided by O r i g i n and D e s t i n a t i o n , Vancouver C i t y , Sept. 1, 1971 t o Feb. 10, 1 9 7 3  57  P r o p o r t i o n o f T o t a l T r a n s f e r s Responding t o Q u e s t i o n n a i r e i n Each School Area, S u b d i v i d e d by O r i g i n and D e s t i n a t i o n , Vancouver C i t y , Sept. 1, 1971 t o Feb. 10, 1973  59  P r o p o r t i o n o f T o t a l T r a n s f e r s , T o t a l Sample, - and T o t a l Responses, Represented by Each M i g r a t i o n Stream  60  F e a t u r e s Which Were S i g n i f i c a n t l y D i f f e r e n t i n Contributing t o the Migration of Families From D i f f e r e n t O r i e i n s i n t o Areas i n Vancouver City  66  F e a t u r e s Which Were o f S i g n i f i c a n t l y D i f f e r e n t Importance i n C o n t r i b u t i n g t o the Choice o f a Home by F a m i l i e s from D i f f e r e n t O r i g i n s . .  69  R e s i d e n t i a l Features Considered Important by More Than 50fr o f F a m i l i e s from D i f f e r e n t O r i g i n s i n the Choice o f T h e i r Home  74  Features Important i n the Choice o f a Home Which V a r i e d S i g n i f i c a n t l y Between School Areas C h a r a c t e r i z e d by D i f f e r e n t M i g r a t i o n Streams.... 76  vii  Table 12  R e s i d e n t i a l Features Considered Important by More Than 50% of F a m i l i e s M i g r a t i n g i n t o School Areas C h a r a c t e r i z e d by D i f f e r e n t M i g r a t i o n Streams  Page -  79  V l l  LIST OF MAPS Map  Page  I  M o b i l e School Areas  49  II  S t a b l e S c h o o l Areas  50  III  S c h o o l Areas Sampled  52  ix  LIST OF DIAGRAMS Diagram 1  Page M i g r a t i o n Streams A f f e c t i n g S c h o o l Enrollments i n Vancouver C i t y  62  X  LIST OF FIGURES  Figure 1  Elementary Schools i n Vancouver C i t y , Changes i n E n r o l l m e n t Due t o Changes i n B i r t h Rates and Net M i g r a t i o n  Page Net 15  INTRODUCTION D i f f e r e n t i a l growth r a t e s o f student  populations  w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t s e c t i o n s o f the m e t r o p o l i t a n l a r g e l y t h e product  area,  o f m i g r a t i o n , have c r e a t e d a  number o f problems f o r p l a n n e r s  o f elementary e d u c a t i o n a l  facilities. M i g r a t i o n has f l u c t u a t e d from year t o year, making p r e d i c t i o n s d i f f i c u l t .  I n the p a s t ,  educational  p l a n n e r s have u s u a l l y assumed t h a t m i g r a t i o n would c o n t i n u e unchanged. techniques  The student  population projection  employed have consequently  not i n c l u d e d  any means o f a n a l y z i n g m i g r a t i o n o r changes i n i t . Net movements o f students from one s c h o o l area t o another  have caused imbalances i n the demand f o r  existing f a c i l i t i e s .  Classrooms i n some s e c t i o n s of  the c i t y have been u n d e r u t i l i z e d , whereas, elsewhere, t h e r e has been a demand f o r a d d i t i o n a l e d u c a t i o n a l facilities. Net  l o s s e s o f students v i a m i g r a t i o n from an  e n t i r e s c h o o l d i s t r i c t have, i n the case o f Vancouver C i t y , been a s s o c i a t e d with an i n c r e a s e i n the per p u p i l costs of education.  A c c o r d i n g t o one s c h o o l  board member, a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and maintenance c o s t s have not decreased  i n p r o p o r t i o n t o the net decrease 1 0  2  i n the number o f students due t o m i g r a t i o n .  The  student p o p u l a t i o n determines the p r o v i n c i a l  grants  t o a l o c a l s c h o o l board. The purpose o f t h i s t h e s i s was t o examine t h e f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the movement o f f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t areas o f o r i g i n i n t o Vancouver C i t y areas and w i t h i n the c i t y . o f the reasons  school  T h i s i n v o l v e d an a n a l y s i s  f o r the movement o f f a m i l i e s and o f the  r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s c o n s i d e r e d important  i n the c h o i c e  o f a home. Three m i g r a t i o n streams were s t u d i e d : movement from areas o u t s i d e the m e t r o p o l i t a n area i n t o Vancouver C i t y ; movement from the Lower Mainland  (Metropolitan  Vancouver e x c l u s i v e o f Vancouver C i t y ) i n t o Vancouver C i t y ; and, movement w i t h i n Vancouver C i t y .  Families  moving from Vancouver C i t y t o the Lower Mainland were sampled, but the number o f responses was t o o s m a l l t o allow a separate a n a l y s i s o f t h i s m i g r a t i o n stream. F a m i l i e s moving from areas w i t h i n the c i t y t o areas o u t s i d e M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver were not sampled as t h e i r addresses  were t o o d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n .  In a d d i t i o n t o an examination  o f the f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g  the movement o f f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s  into  Vancouver C i t y areas, the t h e s i s i n v o l v e d an a n a l y s i s  3  i n s i n g l e s c h o o l areas o f the reasons f o r moving out and the r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s c o n s i d e r e d  important  i n the c h o i c e of a home.  performed  T h i s a n a l y s i s was  on s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams: Lord Roberts  (the West End), c h a r a c t e r i z e d  by a m i g r a t i o n of f a m i l i e s from areas o u t s i d e M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver; L o r d K i t c h e n e r (the Dunbar a r e a ) , by a m i g r a t i o n of f a m i l i e s from o t h e r  areas  i n the c i t y ; and L o r d Tennyson (East K i t s i l a n o ) ,  by  a m i g r a t i o n of f a m i l i e s t o o t h e r areas i n Vancouver City. A q u e s t i o n n a i r e was  m a i l e d t o f a m i l i e s who  had  moved e i t h e r i n t o or out o f the t h r e e s c h o o l areas a two was  and o n e - h a l f year p e r i o d .  designed  The  over  questionnaire  t o determine the reasons f o r moving and  f e a t u r e s important  i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e f o r  the d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams, and f o r f a m i l i e s moving i n and out of the t h r e e s c h o o l areas which were sampled.  A d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r s , such as housing  t e n u r e , socio-economic  type  and  and demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  were e x p l o r e d f o r both m i g r a t i o n streams and the s c h o o l areas. The  study d e p i c t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t  reasons  f o r the movement of f a m i l i e s from v a r i o u s o r i g i n s  into  c i t y s c h o o l a r e a s , and s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the f e a t u r e s c o n s i d e r e d important  i n the choice o f a  4  r e s i d e n c e by f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s .  There  were a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the importance a t t a c h e d t o s p e c i f i c r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s among s c h o o l areas  c h a r a c t e r i z e d by d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n  streams.  The  f e a t u r e s which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y  for  the three s c h o o l areas sampled were o f t e n the  -same -as those which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y for  significant  significant  the m i g r a t i o n streams which c h a r a c t e r i z e d the s c h o o l  areas.  However, there were others which were n o t .  The  s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s found among t h e  m i g r a t i o n streams i n r e s p e c t o f the reasons f o r moving and the f e a t u r e s important i n d i c a t e t h a t planners  i n the choice of a residence  of educational f a c i l i t i e s  should  take a more comprehensive approach t o t h e p r e d i c t i o n o f student  populations,  incorporating i n their predictions  the f a c t o r s which a f f e c t m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s . important  t h a t an a n a l y s i s o f such f a c t o r s be done on  a s c h o o l area b a s i s as t h e survey  results  s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s among s c h o o l areas did  Iti s  not correspond  depicted which  w i t h the m i g r a t i o n streams c h a r a c t e r i z i n g  them, and v i c e v e r s a .  I n order t o i n c o r p o r a t e i n t o the  p r e d i c t i o n o f s c h o o l enrollments  the r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s  c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e m i g r a t i o n i n t o and out o f some s c h o o l areas  o f f a m i l i e s with elementary s c h o o l age c h i l d r e n ,  s c h o o l planners w i l l have t o c a l i b r a t e the f e a t u r e s which were s p e c i f i e d by the respondents t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y important.  5  The of  f a c t o r s which c o n t r i b u t e t o the  out-migration  f a m i l i e s from s p e c i f i c s c h o o l areas and from the  e n t i r e s c h o o l d i s t r i c t are the means by which the e d u c a t i o n a l planner Although  can shape m i g r a t i o n streams.  the e d u c a t i o n a l planner  power t o suggest  i s not d e l e g a t e d  zoning, d e a l d i r e c t l y w i t h  the  traffic  problems, or implement programs, f o r example, i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t he has a v o i c e i n the d e c i s i o n t o implement such p o l i c i e s and programs, which have an impact student p o p u l a t i o n  on  levels.  O r g a n i z a t i o n of the Study The  study c o n s i s t s of f o u r p a r t s : Chapter I, a  p o r t r a y a l of m i g r a t i o n and i t s impact on student  enroll-  ments; Chapter I I , a l i t e r a t u r e survey o f the t h e o r i e s of  m i g r a t i o n ; Chapter I I I , the methodology of the  study; Chapters IV, V,' and VI, survey r e s u l t s , d i s c u s s i o n of  r e s u l t s and  implications f o r planning.  Chapter I d e a l s with the impact which m i g r a t i o n has had  on Canadian c i t y p o p u l a t i o n s , and more p a r t i c u l a r l y ,  w i t h the problems which t h i s has c r e a t e d i n p l a n n i n g educational f a c i l i t i e s .  The methods used by  p l a n n e r s t o p r o j e c t student and the inadequacies m i g r a t i o n are noted.  educational  p o p u l a t i o n s are d e l i n e a t e d , ,  o f these methods i n d e a l i n g w i t h Vancouver C i t y i s used t o demonstrate  the n e c e s s i t y o f a n a l y z i n g m i g r a t i o n before p r o j e c t i n g student  p o p u l a t i o n s and the problems which m i g r a t i o n  c r e a t e d f o r p l a n n e r s of elementary s c h o o l  facilities.  has  6  Chapter I I i s a s y n t h e s i s of what o t h e r s t u d i e s have d e p i c t e d t o be the reasons  f o r movement of f a m i l i e s  from v a r i o u s o r i g i n s i n t o c i t y areas, and the f a c t o r s which they c o n s i d e r important  i n t h e i r choice of a  residence. I n Chapter I I I the hypotheses t o be t e s t e d are d e l i n e a t e d , as w e l l as the means f o r t e s t i n g hypotheses. i n sampling  The  b a s i s f o r the sample and  are d i s c u s s e d .  the  problems  In a d d i t i o n , the  extent  t o which the responses are r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f the and  the m i g r a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e s c h o o l  are  presented. Chapter IV d e a l s w i t h the survey r e s u l t s :  reasons  why  sample areas  the  f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t areas o f o r i g i n  moved from t h e i r p r e v i o u s r e s i d e n c e s , and the f e a t u r e s important  i n t h e i r c h o i c e o f a home; the reasons  f a m i l i e s moved from s p e c i f i c s c h o o l areas, the f e a t u r e s c o n s i d e r e d important  and  i n the c h o i c e o f a  home by f a m i l i e s moving i n t o s p e c i f i c s c h o o l The  why  areas.  r e s u l t s o f the study are d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter V,  and are p o r t r a y e d t o be p o s s i b l y s p e c i f i c t o t h i s  samole.  A comoarison i s made between the s c h o o l areas and  the  m i g r a t i o n streams i n r e s n e c t of the reasons and the f e a t u r e s important The  f o r moving  i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e .  i m p l i c a t i o n s of the r e s u l t s f o r p l a n n i n g of elementary  s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s are d i s c u s s e d i n Chapter V I .  CHAPTER I : OVERVIEW OF THE I.  PROBLEM  Impact of M i g r a t i o n on P o p u l a t i o n s W i t h i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Area One  of the most important  the  problems f a c i n g  e d u c a t i o n a l planners i s t h a t o f matching f a c i l i t i e s t h e requirements  of students.  to  With an i n c r e a s e i n  u r b a n i z a t i o n , the problem has become i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t t o manage. A s s o c i a t e d w i t h u r b a n i z a t i o n have been r a p i d i n c r e a s e s i n student p o p u l a t i o n s i n m e t r o p o l i t a n areas, and more i m p o r t a n t l y , d i f f e r e n t i a l growth r a t e s o f student p o p u l a t i o n s w i t h i n d i f f e r e n t areas of the metropolitan'environment.  These changes have n e c e s s i t a t e d  t h a t e d u c a t i o n a l planners understand  the  specific  components of p o p u l a t i o n growth, and the manner i n which these components a f f e c t , and are a f f e c t e d by, the urban environment. M i g r a t i o n has a g r e a t impact of m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s .  on the growth r a t e s  An a n a l y s i s of the  latest  a v a i l a b l e census d a t a f o r Canada i n d i c a t e s t h a t between 1951  and 1961,  net m i g r a t i o n accounted  f o r over  60  p e r c e n t of the p o p u l a t i o n growth i n C a l g a r y , Vancouver, and V i c t o r i a  (Stone, 1967).  I t also contributed to  g r e a t e r growth r a t e s f o r suburban areas than f o r other p a r t s o f the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s .  Stone s t a t e s t h a t  8  n  86  p e r c e n t o f the d i f f e r e n t i a l i n p o p u l a t i o n growth  between the c e n t r a l c i t i e s and the remainder MAs  may  be a t t r i b u t e d t o the d i r e c t impact  migration** (Stone, 1967,  p.  of the...  o f net  159).  E d u c a t i o n a l p l a n n e r s are a l s o i n t e r e s t e d i n the v a r y i n g age s t r u c t u r e o f the p o p u l a t i o n i n v a r i o u s p a r t s o f those m e t r o p o l i t a n areas which are c h a r a c t e r i z e d by d i f f e r e n t i a l growth r a t e s .  For example, i n the  y e a r s 1951-61, the net m i g r a t i o n g a i n s t o the  central  c i t y were h i g h e s t i n the age group c h a r a c t e r i z e d by r e c e n t l y m a r r i e d or s i n g l e persons  (20 t o 24 y e a r s ) .  On the o t h e r hand, the net m i g r a t i o n gains t o the remainder  of the m e t r o p o l i t a n areas were c o n c e n t r a t e d  among those age groups weighted young c h i l d r e n  with f a m i l i e s  (24 t o 29 y e a r s ) .  having  Stone a t t r i b u t e d  these changes i n the composition o f the urban p o p u l a t i o n t o . t h e i n c r e a s i n g tendency  f o r m i g r a t i o n t o be  l o c a t i o n s o u t s i d e the c e n t r a l c i t y , and t o the tendency i n the The  into increasing  o f f a m i l i e s w i t h young c h i l d r e n t o r e - l o c a t e suburbs. r e s u l t s o f a study of net m i g r a t i o n w i t h i n  M e t r o p o l i t a n Toronto have r e i n f o r c e d Stone's  findings  (Simmons, 1971).  sex  A  n  a n a l y s i s o f the age and  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f people moving from one t o another tendency  census t r a c t  over a f i f t e e n year p e r i o d demonstrated a  f o r those m i g r a t i n g i n t o the c i t y t o be young (15 t o 19),  9 and t o s e t t l e i n apartment areas of the c e n t r a l  city.  I n c r e a s e s o f 200-300 percent i n the p o p u l a t i o n o f the apartment a r e a i n the c e n t r a l c i t y were noted. people, however, tended  t o move from the c e n t r a l  t o the suburban a r e a s .  Out-migration  t o the  Older city  suburban  areas began with the 20 to 24 age group and  continued  f o r the 25 t o 29, and 30 t o 34 age groups.  Of the  t h r e e age  c a t e g o r i e s , the l a s t  showed the s t r o n g e s t  movement t o the suburban a r e a s . V a r i a t i o n s i n the s t r e n g t h and a g e - s t r u c t u r e s o f m i g r a t i o n streams have upset attempts t o match e d u c a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s t o the needs o f s t u d e n t s .  In C a l g a r y , f o r  example, m i g r a t i o n t o the suburban areas, i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h a d e c l i n i n g b i r t h r a t e , has r e s u l t e d i n i n s u f f i c i e n t classroom the  space i n the suburbs and e x c e s s i v e space i n  cities. T o a v o i d the expensive c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new s c h o o l s i n o u t l y i n g areas...the c i t y ' s board o f e d u c a t i o n has made c o n t r o v e r s i a l p r o p o s a l t o bus c h i l d r e n i n t o the r a p i d l y emptying classrooms of the i n n e r city. The c i t y s c h o o l s have too much space because o f a d e c l i n i n g b i r t h r a t e and a m i g r a t i o n to the suburbs. At l a s t count, the c i t y ' s 150 elementary, j u n i o r hierh and h i g h s c h o o l s had c l o s e d more than 400 vacant classrooms, some of which might never be used again * (Dennett, 1973, p. 5 ) . n  1  S i m i l a r problems have been encountered  by the C i t y o f  Edmonton and the C i t y o f Vancouver (Dennett, C o l e , 1972,  p. 1 ) .  1973,  p.5;  10  II.  Methods f o r P r o j e c t i n g Student Although  m i g r a t i o n has  Populations  a g r e a t impact on  the  growth r a t e s and p o p u l a t i o n p a t t e r n s o f urban areas, i t has tended t o be e i t h e r i g n o r e d or d e a l t w i t h i n a simplistic planners.  and inadequate  manner by  educational  School p l a n n e r s have tended to r e s o r t  to techniques population  which estimate  i n d i r e c t l y the f u t u r e  l e v e l s of students, and  do not estimate  specific  changes i n the components o f p o p u l a t i o n , or the f o r c e s a f f e c t i n g changes i n these One  components.  of the more common techniques  p r o j e c t i n g student  used i n  p o p u l a t i o n s i s t h a t of e x t r a p o l a t i n g  from census data which i n d i c a t e s a g e - s p e c i f i c p o p u l a t i o n s o f c h i l d r e n of s c h o o l ages.  T h i s method  assumes t h a t the major f o r c e s determining p o p u l a t i o n s , such as m i g r a t i o n r a t e s , w i l l  student continue  to.change at the same r a t e t h a t they have i n the  past.  A second method, l e s s commonly used because i t tends t o be more u n r e l i a b l e than the p r e c e d i n g i s t h a t of analogy.  I t i s based on the assumption t h a t  the growth p a t t e r n s of two developed  historically,  i n the same manner.  technique,  s i m i l a r communities w i l l have  i n terms o f the p o p u l a t i o n s t r u c t u r e ,  I t s u n r e l i a b i l i t y stems from the  f a c t t h a t , i n g e n e r a l , communities are not a c c u r a t e l y .comparable.  11  .  A t h i r d method, the r e l a t i n g o f s c h o o l  enrollments  t o the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , i s used when data on t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n s o f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s are a v a i l a b l e from other sources.  A r a t i o of the student  populations at p a r t i c u l a r  grade l e v e l s t o the a g e - s p e c i f i c p o p u l a t i o n o f the m u n i c i p a l i t y i s determined, f o r example, by p r o j e c t i o n from past census data or by analogy w i t h other districts.  school  T h i s method d i f f e r s from the p r e c e d i n g  two  i n t h a t i t i s the r a t i o o f the student p o p u l a t i o n t o the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n which i s determined and not the student  p o p u l a t i o n s themselves.  The method i s u n r e l i a b l e  f o r c i t i e s which are e x p e r i e n c i n g e i t h e r r a p i d growth o r d e c l i n e s i n student  p o p u l a t i o n s as i t assumes t h a t  the components of p o p u l a t i o n change such as m i g r a t i o n r a t e s are c o n s t a n t .  The s p e c i f i c components o f change  are not g e n e r a l l y t r e a t e d as independent v a r i a b l e s . Probably student  the most common method used t o p r o j e c t  p o p u l a t i o n s i s the " a v e r a g e - s u r v i v o r  ratio"  technique. ( C o u n c i l o f E d u c a t i o n a l F a c i l i t y P l a n n e r s ,  1968).  T h i s method, a l s o based on a n a l y s i s o f past census data, d i f f e r s from the p r e c e d i n g m o d i f i e d i n the l i g h t  i n that b i r t h r a t e s are  o f new t r e n d s , and are, i n f a c t ,  an e s s e n t i a l component o f the t e c h n i q u e . f o r a g i v e n year are compared w i t h s c h o o l f i v e and s i x years l a t e r ,  Birth  data  enrollments  i n k i n d e r g a r t e n and grade  12  one,  respectively.  w i t h grade two,  Grade one  and so on.  e n r o l l m e n t s are compared  Average s u r v i v o r r a t i o s  o b t a i n e d from an a n a l y s i s of the average  number o f  c h i l d r e n s u r v i v i n g from one grade t o another  over  a p e r i o d of time are used t o p r o j e c t the e n r o l l m e n t s f o r each grade l e v e l .  L i k e other techniques, t h i s  one  assumes t h a t , except f o r the b i r t h r a t e , t h a t which has happened i n the p a s t w i l l continue t o occur i n the f u t u r e .  Consequently,  changes i n the net  m i g r a t i o n r a t e s of students are not normally e s s e n t i a l p a r t of t h i s  an  technique.  A f i f t h method used f o r long-range  planning i s  the s a t u r a t i o n a n a l y s i s , a technique which a s c e r t a i n s the u l t i m a t e enrollment r e s u l t i n g i f a l l l a n d w i t h i n a s c h o o l d i s t r i c t were developed.  T h i s i n v o l v e s an  e v a l u a t i o n o f such f a c t o r s as l a n d use p a t t e r n s , the number o f a c r e s l i k e l y t o be used f o r r e s i d e n t i a l development, the type and number o f s p e c i f i c d w e l l i n g u n i t s , and the probable changes i n d e n s i t y r a t i o s t o the aging of communities.  Such an e v a l u a t i o n  n e c e s s i t a t e s c o l l a b o r a t i o n with c i t y planning who  suggest  due  officials  zoning changes and other measures a f f e c t i n g  r e s i d e n t i a l p a t t e r n s , as w e l l as d e t a i l e d  analysis  o f the manner i n which housing v a r i a b l e s and elements a f f e c t p o t e n t i a l e n r o l l m e n t s .  other  13  S a t u r a t i o n a n a l y s i s , a long-range p r o j e c t i o n method based on an a n a l y s i s of the i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the p h y s i c a l environment and f a c t o r s such as and  migration  b i r t h r a t e s , i s the o n l y one which attempts to  a n t i c i p a t e changes  i n p o p u l a t i o n by t a k i n g i n t o  c o n s i d e r a t i o n a l t e r a t i o n s i n the components o f change.  The  average-survivor  r a t i o technique  population does  i n c o r p o r a t e changing b i r t h r a t e s , but t h i s i s the  only  component of p o p u l a t i o n change which i s taken i n t o consideration.  A l l the methods (with the e x c e p t i o n  s a t u r a t i o n a n a l y s i s ) assume t h a t m i g r a t i o n  of  will  remain unchanged. III.  Vancouver as a Case Study A. The  of-each  The N e c e s s i t y of A n a l y z i n g the Separate Components o f P o p u l a t i o n Change n e c e s s i t y of s e p a r a t e l y a n a l y z i n g the o f the components of p o p u l a t i o n change  trends can  be demonstrated by an examination of the impacts which both b i r t h and  death r a t e s have on s c h o o l  For example, i n Vancouver C i t y , there was o f over 1000  students  i n 1966  due  i n the b i r t h r a t e some f i v e years i n c r e a s e of over 1000  students  due  t o an  populations. an  increase  earlier, t o net  d u r i n g the 1956-66 s c h o o l p e r i o d (Table  increase  and  an  migration  1).  14  Table 1 E f f e c t of D i f f e r e n t F a c t o r s on the E n r o l l m e n t i n Elementary S c h o o l s i n Vancouver C i t y Net Changes Due t o Migration  Net Changes Due to Differences i n Birth Rates and R e t e n t i o n at Grade 7  Year  1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972  +1081 -171 -659 -334 -216 -918 -1100  +1031 +481 +561 +46 -310 -782 -1186  SOURCE: Vancouver S c h o o l Board G r a p h i c a l d e o i c t i o n o f the net changes  indicates  t h a t the t r a n s i t i o n from an i n c r e a s e i n e n r o l l m e n t i n 1966  caused by b i r t h s and net m i g r a t i o n t o a decrease  o f a s i m i l a r magnitude  i n 1972  was  not smooth (Figure 1).  Abrupt changes i n net m i g r a t i o n , f o r example, between 1966  and 1967,  and between 1970  and  occurred 1971.  The "average s u r v i v o r r a t i o " or "average r e t e n t i o n r a t i o " t e c h n i q u e emdoyed by the Vancouver S c h o o l Board does i n c o r p o r a t e changes i n the b i r t h r a t e .  Table 2  i l l u s t r a t e s the "average s u r v i v o r r a t i o " o r "average r e t e n t i o n r a t i o " t e c h n i q u e used by the Vancouver S c h o o l Board.  Figure 1 Elementary Schools i n Vancouver City, Net Changes i n Enrollment Due t o Changes i n B i r t h Rates and Net M i g r a t i o n Net Changes R e l a t e d t o B i r t h and R e t e n t i o n a t Grade Seven Net Changes Due t o M i g r a t i o n  1966  1967  1968  1969  1970  1971.  1972  16  The l e t t e r a " , f o r example, prefixes the n  number of children born four years p r i o r to 1969 i n Vancouver City (6187).  The l e t t e r a _ prefixes the n  n  percentage of these births (80.5 percent) e n r o l l i n g i n kindergarten i n 1970, while the l e t t e r " a " depicts 2  the actual number of students e n r o l l i n g i n kindergarten (4978) i n 1970.  An analagous  sequence i s represented  by the l e t t e r s "b", b_", "b2 , which indicate, respectively, n  n  actual enrollment i n kindergarten i n 1969, the percentage of these e n r o l l i n g i n grade one i n 1970, and the actual numbers e n r o l l i n g i n grade one i n 1970.  The f i g u r e s  f o r 1971 are projections based on "retention r a t i o s " 1 or "survivor r a t i o s " of the previous year. For example, 2 103.3  percent  of the kindergarten students i n 1969  registered i n grade one i n 1970.  I t was therefore  1. The 1970 "retention r a t i o s " are used only to project student populations f o r 1971. The actual number of students registered i n 1971 w i l l be obtained from school enrollment records, "retention r a t i o s " w i l l be calculated, and used to project 1972 enrollments. The table i s corrected annually so that errors i n projecting are not compounded. 2. A r a t i o of less than one hundred w i l l be caused by a retention (non-promotion to the next grade) of students and a net out-migration of students f o r that grade l e v e l . A r a t i o greater than one hundred w i l l be caused by a net in-migration of students.  17  assumed that migration would be the same as i n the preceding year and that the same percentage  (represented  by the l e t t e r "a-j^Jwould r e g i s t e r i n grade one i n 1971. The actual number which was assumed or predicted to r e g i s t e r i n grade one was 5142 students (represented by the l e t t e r "a^"). A comparison of the actual retention r a t i o s and the actual number of students e n r o l l i n g i n each grade i n 1971 portrays the shortcomings  of the retention  r a t i o technique which i s based on the assumption that changes i n net migration w i l l continue as they have i n the past (Table 3 ) . The actual retention r a t i o s were lower than the predicted ones f o r a l l grade l e v e l s , and p a r t i c u l a r l y so f o r the kindergarten 3 enrollment.  In terms of the t o t a l enrollment,  the difference between the t o t a l projected elementary enrollment students.  and the actual enrollment was 1159 Assuming that there were 30 students per  classroom, t h i s i s equivalent to approximately 39 classrooms and teachers. 3. The decrease i n retention r a t i o s could not have necessarily been anticipated as migration can fluctuate from year to year (see Figure 1).  Table 2 A c t u a l E n r o l l m e n t i n Vancouver C i t y Elementary Grades 1969 e t Seq. Showing Percentage C o n t i n u a t i o n From P r e v i o u s Grade Res. Births  Kind.  Gr. One  Gr. Two  G r ^ . G r . G r ; G r . G r . Three Four Five Six Seven  6187  5509  604^  5710  5927  Sept. 1969  ou. ?  80.5 Sept. 1970  Sept. 1971*  6529  103.3-  94.1  97.3  5992  98.0  5818  99.1  5527  101.5  5423  100.3  4°78 / r s 5692 5686 5555 5809 5938 5903 5544 V^fe)^ V 80.5 .. 103.3 ^ 9 4 . 1 97.3 98.0 99.1 101.5 100.3  6526  5282  _5142  _  5356  5532  5444  5757  6027  5921  *Sept., 1971 e n r o l l m e n t s a r e p r e d i c t e d and are based on the r e t e n t i o n r a t i o o f the p r e v i o u s y e a r . The f i g u r e s f o r Sept. 1969 and Sept. 1970 a r e a c t u a l e n r o l l m e n t s and a c t u a l r e t e n t i o n r a t i o s . SOURCE: Vancouver  S c h o o l Board  Table 3 Comparison of Predicted and Actual Elementary and Retention Ratios f o r 1971 i n the Vancouver School D i s t r i c t Res. Births 1971  GrT One  Kind.  Gr.. Two  Grl Three  Enrollment  Gr\ Four  Gr~, Six  GrI Five  Gr. Seven  Proj.  Ret. Ratios  80.9  103.3  94.1  97.3  98.0  99.1  101.5  100.3  71.5  101.5  93.3  96.5  97.2  98.7  98.9  97.8  1971 Act. Ret. Ratios 1971  Proj.  Enrollment  5282  1971 Act. EnrollmeAt 4671 SOURCE: Vancouver School Board  5142  5356  5532  5444  5757  6027  5921  5052  5313  5485  5400  5734  5875  5772  20  B. Problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the P r o j e c t i o n o f Student P o p u l a t i o n s and Net M i g r a t i o n L e v e l s Some o f t h e prohlems a r i s i n g out o f the i n a b i l i t y o f s c h o o l boards t o p r e d i c t a c c u r a t e l y student  populations  are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e r a t i o n a l a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s (taxpayers money). delegated  L o c a l s c h o o l boards have been  the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f o p e r a t i n g ,  and m a i n t a i n i n g  administering,  a l l schools w i t h i n t h e i r d i s t r i c t  9 7 ( b ) , 9 7 ( c ) , and 9 8 ( a ) o f t h e P u b l i c Schools  (Sections  Act).  These, f o r example, r e q u i r e the h i r i n g o f p e r s o n n e l , i n c l u d i n g t e a c h e r s , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n and o p e r a t i n g o f s c h o o l b u i l d i n g s , and the p r o v i s i o n and maintenance o f classroom  equipment and s u p p l i e s .  D e c i s i o n s on these  matters have t o be made i n advance - i n the case o f h i r i n g of t e a c h e r s , i n the f a l l ;  p r i o r t o the opening o f c l a s s e s  and, i n , the case o f t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of  new s c h o o l s , a t l e a s t one or two years  i n advance.  On a s h o r t range b a s i s , i t i s consequently t h a t n o t o n l y the t o t a l number o f students a c c u r a t e l y f o r the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t t h i s accuracy  desirable  be p r e d i c t e d  as a whole, b u t t h a t  extend t o each s c h o o l l e v e l .  The t e x t  books and r e q u i r e d t e a c h i n g q u a l i f i c a t i o n s v a r y by grade. There must be s u f f i c i e n t o f each f o r each grade  level.  21  Over the medium term, the i n a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n o f student p o p u l a t i o n s can r e s u l t i n the unnecessary a c q u i s i t i o n of s c h o o l s i t e s and buildings.  c o n s t r u c t i o n of s c h o o l  Vancouver School Board, f o r example,  purchased a s c h o o l s i t e f o r $135,000 i n 1971 Laura S e c o r d - S e l k i r k a r e a .  i n the  L a t e r t h i s purchase  was  c o n s i d e r e d unnecessary. "The $117,000 annex was t o have been ready f o r use i n September. But l a s t week, o f f i c i a l s s a i d , a survey of p o p u l a t i o n trends i n d i c a t e d a sharp drop i n a n t i c i p a t e d e n r o l l m e n t . . . ' I t ' s j u s t something t h a t couldn't be f o r s e e n . I t had been one o f our worst over-crowded a r e a s . ' P l a n n i n g d i r e c t o r Don P r i t c h a r d s a i d t h e r e was no c l e a r reason f o r the r a p i d drop i n enrolment, other than t h a t people were moving out of the area b o r d e r i n g V i c t o r i a D r i v e from B u r r a r d I n l e t t o about S i x t e e n t h . He s a i d an exodus t o the suburbs by people w i t h young c h i l d r e n seems t o be underway " (Cole, 1972, p. 1 ) . ;  A second s e t o f problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h changes i n net l e v e l s of m i g r a t i o n a r i s e , n o t from an  inability  t o p r e d i c t these changes, but from a l a c k of c o n t r o l over them.  Even i f s c h o o l o f f i c i a l s ,  by a c a r e f u l  c a l i b r a t i o n of m i g r a t i o n streams moving i n and  out  and  w i t h i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n area, p r e d i c t changes i n student p o p u l a t i o n s , they are s t i l l f a c e d with the problem o f b u i l d i n g a d d i t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s i n some areas having u n d e r u t i l i z e d f a c i l i t i e s not a  simple  and  i n other a r e a s .  There  s o l u t i o n to t h i s problem because s c h o o l  is  22  b u i l d i n g s tend t o be permanent s t r u c t u r e s and cannot  be c o n v e r t e d e a s i l y f o r a l t e r n a t i v e uses,  moved t o new classrooms  locations.  Q u i t e o f t e n , o n l y a few  i n a number o f s c h o o l s are no l o n g e r needed.  Thus, w h i l e a number o f classrooms whole b u i l d i n g s must s t i l l  are b e i n g u n d e r u t i l i z e d ,  be operated and  maintained.  The Vancouver S c h o o l Board has attempted w i t h t h i s problem i n a number o f ways. it  to deal  I n some cases,  has converted o r d i n a r y s c h o o l s t o s p e c i a l purpose  schools.  For example, O s i e r was  a school f o r retarded children. was  or  transformed  Oakridge,  E d i t h C a v e l l Annex  i n t o an e x p e r i m e n t a l " f r e e s c h o o l " f o r  grades f i v e t o t e n . used f o r purposes of students.  annexed t o  Elsewhere,  classrooms  are being  other than c o n v e n t i o n a l t e a c h i n g  At Waverly Elementary  School, a  classroom has been r e n t e d out a t a nominal f e e o f two  d o l l a r s a day t o an o r g a n i z a t i o n c a l l e d PACE f o r  the 1971-72 s c h o o l y e a r .  Simon F r a s e r Annex has  been  converted i n t o a teachers' centre. I n a t h i r d case, commercial encroachment i n t o a s c h o o l a r e a f o r c e d the c l o s u r e o f a complete s c h o o l (Dawson).  At the same time, however, the S c h o o l  Board  i s f a c e d w i t h the p r o s p e c t of b u i l d i n g a new s t r u c t u r e i n the same area  (the West End),  but i n a l o c a t i o n  t h a t students are not f o r c e d t o c r o s s a number of main a r t e r i e s .  such  23  The  net decrease  i n enrollment i n the C i t y o f  Vancouver has i n c r e a s e d the c o s t o f e d u c a t i o n per p u p i l . While  t h e r e has been some attempt  o f t h e e x t r a classrooms cases the classrooms  t o make e f f e c t i v e use  and s c h o o l b u i l d i n g s , i n most  s t i l l had t o be maintained and  operated. Secondly,  the decrease i n the number o f s t u d e n t s  has meant fewer r e c e n t u n i v e r s i t y graduates  c o u l d be  h i r e d as t e a c h e r s .  are p a i d  Because these graduates  lower s a l a r i e s than t e a c h e r s with more e x p e r i e n c e , lower the average While  salary paid to teachers.  the c o s t s o f e d u c a t i o n per student have  r i s e n , the revenue r e c e i v e d by the Vancouver S c h o o l Board  from the p r o v i n c i a l government has decreased.  P r o v i n c i a l g r a n t s t o the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s  a r e based  u l t i m a t e l y on the number o f s t u d e n t s a t the v a r i o u s grade l e v e l s i n the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t s .  they  24  CHAPTER I I : THEORIES OF MIGRATION I.  Introduction Because the b a s i c purpose o f t h i s t h e s i s i s t o  obtain a greater understanding of the f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g movement i n t o and .within .a city., the f o l l o w i n g l i t e r a t u r e survey w i l l be a s y n t h e s i s o f those f a c t o r s which have been demonstrated t o have been o f importance i n related studies. separated  In general,  migration  other s t u d i e s have not  streams w i t h i n a m e t r o p o l i t a n  area.  Wherever p o s s i b l e , however, r e f e r e n c e w i l l be made t o the two i n t r a - m e t r o p o l i t a n m i g r a t i o n  streams - w i t h i n  the c i t y and between the c i t y and the suburban Studies as having  of migration  p o r t r a y the m i g r a t i o n  areas. process  two dimensions - "push" and " p u l l " f o r c e s  operating together.  (  The former tends t o p r e c i p i t a t e  the move, but more so when there a r e a l t e r n a t i v e s perceived  as b e t t e r elsewhere, or other f a c t o r s  the i n d i v i d u a l i n t o a new s e t t i n g .  "pulling"  I n t h e case o f t h e  i n t r a - c i t y and i n t r a - m e t r o p o l i t a n migrant, the "push" and  " p u l l " f o r c e s are, r e s p e c t i v e l y , the reasons why  f a m i l i e s move from t h e i r o r i g i n a l r e s i d e n c e ,  and the  f a c t o r s which c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e i r c h o i c e o f a d i f f e r e n t residence.  F o r migrants from areas o u t s i d e t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n  25  area, for  the  "push" and  moving, and  " p u l l " f o r c e s are the  reasons  the f a c t o r s important i n the movement  i n t o the m e t r o p o l i t a n  area,  respectively.  However, f o r  the purpose of t h i s t h e s i s , the f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the movement of f a m i l i e s i n t o the c i t y and  into  s p e c i f i c areas i n the c i t y are a l s o r e l e v a n t .  The  r e s u l t s o f s t u d i e s p o r t r a y i n g these w i l l be II.  Reasons f o r Movement and F a c t o r s the Choice of a Residence  Important i n  A. Movement w i t h i n the M e t r o p o l i t a n 1.  General T h e o r i e s  Volpert o u t l i n e d the migration  (1965)  and  "push" and  process.  presented.  Environment  of Intra-Metropolitan  Brown and Moore  (1971)  " p u l l " dimensions of  Migration  have  the  In both t h e o r i e s , the d e c i s i o n t o  move i s viewed as a r i s i n g from a s i t u a t i o n i n which the household's r e s i d e n t i a l d e s i r e s are w i t h i t s environment.  incongruent  Wolpert s t a t e s t h a t the i n d i v i d u a l ,  on the b a s i s o f h i s or her knowledge of e x i s t i n g r e s i d e n t i a l opportunities, evaluates  their  utility  r e l a t i v e t o that of h i s present  environment.  movement occurs i f the assigned  "place u t i l i t y "  a p a r t i c u l a r residence  provides  r e l a t i v e t o the c o s t o f the move.  a sufficient  The of  improvement  26  2.  S p e c i f i c Theories of Intra-Metropolitan M i g r a t i o n a.  Changes i n Socio-Economic  One  s p e c i f i c t h e o r y r e f l e c t i n g the  o f the " p u l l " and  Status interaction  "push" f o r c e s i s t h a t which r e l a t e s  changes i n r e s i d e n c e t o changes i n the household's socio-economic  status.  I n c o n g r u e n c e s between the  household's p e r c e p t i o n of i t s socio-economic and  status  t h a t of i t s r e s i d e n c e motivate a change i n  r e s i d e n c e t o b r i n g the two Whitney and G r i g g percent  i n t o l i n e with each o t h e r .  (1958) have shown t h a t  o f l o c a l moves o f predominantly  Protestant  middle-income f a m i l i e s i n the E a s t e r n U n i t e d were f o r s t a t u s reasons.  90  States  In h i s a n a l y s i s o f m i g r a t i o n  by middle management p e r s o n n e l i n Vancouver C i t y , Paper  (1959) found t h a t the m a j o r i t y moved t o a d j u s t  t h e i r residence to t h e i r a s p i r a t i o n s of s t a t u s . Ross (1961-62) and L e s l i e and Richardson d i s c o v e r e d t h a t movement f o r s t a t u s reasons  (1961)  tended  t o be a suburban r a t h e r than an urban phenomenon. I n Ross's study of Boston, s t a t u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n s were the most important  m o t i v a t i o n f o r moving from the  c i t y t o the p e r i p h e r a l l o c a t i o n s . sampled r e l a t i v e l y new Indiana,  and found  L e s l i e and  central Richardson  suburban areas i n L a f a y e t t e ,  t h a t 90 percent  of the respondents  with s o c i a l m o b i l i t y e x p e c t a t i o n s i n d i c a t e d an i n t e n t i o n  27  t o change t h e i r r e s i d e n c e 12 percent Not  with no such  compared t o approximately expectation.  a l l s t u d i e s have d e p i c t e d s t a t u s  t o be an important reason f o r moving. found t h a t commitment  considerations  B u t l e r et a l . (1963)  t o s o c i a l m o b i l i t y d i d not f o r  the most p a r t d i f f e r e n t i a t e those with moving i n t e n t i o n s i n suburban and  urban neighborhoods o f Los  Angeles.  In Deutschman's study o f movement w i t h i n the New Metropolitan  area, income and  occupational  d i d not d i f f e r e n t i a t e between movers and  York  class  non-movers  (Deutschman, 1971). b.  L i f e - C y c l e Changes  L i f e - c y c l e changes are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h m o b i l i t y when they c r e a t e new  r e s i d e n t i a l needs, such as the need  f o r more space.  o f the more commonly  One  accepted  d e s c r i p t i o n s of the l i f e - c y c l e concept i s t h a t Foote et a l . (I960).  of  A stage i n the l i f e - c y c l e i s  d e f i n e d i n terms o f the m a r i t a l s t a t u s and  age  of  the  household head, the presence or absence o f c h i l d r e n and  t h e i r ages.  designated  Three stages  as t e n d i n g  amount of m o b i l i t y :  i n the l i f e - c y c l e  to be a s s o c i a t e d with "family formation",  are  a great  or marriage;  " c h i l d - b e a r i n g " , or the b i r t h of c h i l d r e n ; and " c h i l d - l a u n c h i n g " , i n which c h i l d r e n l e a v e to e s t a b l i s h homes of t h e i r own.  The  " c h i l d - r e a r i n g " period,  durine  which the c h i l d r e n are a t t e n d i n g s c h o o l , i s a p e r i o d  28  of r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e  residential mobility.  Foote e t a l .  emphasize changes i n the s i z e and ages o f c h i l d r e n as f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y . S t u d i e s o f i n t r a - m e t r o p o l i t a n m i g r a t i o n have supported Foote e t a l . * s t h e s i s t h a t changes i n .household .size .and .the -development o f c h i l d r e n a r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h changing r e s i d e n t i a l  requirements,  which,: when not met l e a d t o a change o f r e s i d e n c e . Rossi  (1955) i n h i s c l a s s i c study o f why f a m i l i e s move  i n P h i l a d e l p h i a concluded t h a t m o b i l i t y was a process which enabled the household  t o a d j u s t i t s housing t o  i t s needs generated by changes i n the c o m p o s i t i o n o f the household.  R o s s i (1961-62) found t h a t those moving  w i t h i n the same square m i l e i n the c e n t r a l c i t y a r e a o f Boston tended t o mention reasons r e l a t e d t o f e a t u r e s o f the house and changes i n the f a m i l y s i z e and composition. S i m i l a r l y , the r e s e a r c h conducted  by L a n s i n g e t a l . (1964)  on f a m i l i e s moving w i t h i n Standard M e t r o p o l i t a n areas i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s d e p i c t e d reasons l a r g e l y t o the d w e l l i n g u n i t and  related  changes i n f a m i l y c o m p o s i t i o n .  Chevan* s sampling o f r e s i d e n t i a l and f a m i l y h i s t o r i e s o f couples  i n the P h i l a d e l p h i a - T r e n t o n M e t r o p o l i t a n  a r e a i n d i c a t e d t h a t f a m i l i e s p r o d u c i n g a c h i l d d u r i n g any given  p e r i o d of marriage tended t o have a h i g h e r r a t e  29  of mobility than other f a m i l i e s (Chevan, 1971). b i r t h s were compared  When  across d i f f e r e n t periods of  marriage, the b i r t h of a c h i l d contributed to greater mobility i n the early stages of marriage.  The  i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of t h i s was that f a m i l i e s were more l i k e l y to have already moved i n the early stages to adjust t h e i r housing t o anticipated needs. Other studies r e l a t i n g l i f e - c y c l e changes to r e s i d e n t i a l mobility have stressed the importance of the age of the household head, independent of changes i n household size and composition.  In Speare's study of  Rhode Island residents, rates of mobility f o r each of h i s l i f e - c y c l e categories decreased as t h e i r age increased (Speare, 1970).  Butler et a l . (1963), i n t h e i r analysis  of suburban and urban areas i n Los Angeles, found changes i n family composition to be l e s s r e l i a b l e than age of household head i n d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g those with mobility intentions.  In Deutschman's analysis of mobility  rates i n ^ew York Metropolitan  area, age of household  head, i n addition to variables depicting changes i n the size and composition of the household, was a s i g n i f i c a n t discriminator between movers and non-movers (Deutschman, 1971).  S i m i l a r l y , i n Long's national sample of households  i n the United States, age was of importance, i n determining the propensity  of a household t o move (Long, 1972).  30  The t h e o r y r e l a t i n g changes i n l i f e - c y c l e r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y i s based  on the t h e s i s that  between the r e s i d e n t i a l environment household  to  and needs o f the  are generated by l i f e - c y c l e changes.  s t u d i e s have attempted  t o a s s e s s the  o f the r e s i d e n t i a l environment  conflicts  Some  specific  aspects  which tend t o be most  o f t e n incongruent w i t h the needs o f the  household.  Most o f these s t u d i e s have found d w e l l i n g u n i t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t o be more commonly i n c o m p a t i b l e w i t h changing needs than neighborhood  characteristics.  D w e l l i n g u n i t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s have been more important than neighborhood  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n moving from a  r e s i d e n c e and more important i n the c h o i c e o f a residence.  A few  s t u d i e s have found l o c a t i o n t o work  t o be of importance  i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e f o r  f a m i l i e s moving w i t h i n the c i t y and from the t o " t h e suburbs.  city  I t has not, however, been an  r e a s o n f o r moving.  important  L o c a t i o n t o work has been important  i n the movement of f a m i l i e s from the suburbs  t o the  city.  In R o s s i ' s study, d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h the amount o f space i n the d w e l l i n g u n i t was reason f o r wanting  the most  t o move ( R o s s i , 1955).  f a c t o r s , i n order of importance,  important Other  were complaints  the s o c i a l and p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the neighborhood.,  and r e n t a l and maintenance c o s t s .  about  31  Chevan ( 1 9 7 1 ) d e p i c t e d s i z e to.be f a c t o r i n the c h o i c e of a new investigating  important  residence i n h i s  o f the e f f e c t o f movement on the d e n s i t y  o f the household, ratio.  an  measured i n terms o f person per room  Couples moving d u r i n g a g i v e n t h r e e - y e a r p e r i o d  were found t o have a h i g h e r person per room r a t i o b e f o r e t h e i r move than couples not moving, and household  d e n s i t i e s a f t e r the move.  consequently housing  Moving  similar  was  d e p i c t e d as a mechanism used t o a d j u s t  space t o housing  needs.  L a n s i n g e t a l . ( 1 9 6 4 ) found t h a t over o f the l o c a l moves were f o r reasons d w e l l i n g u n i t i t s e l f - space, ownership.  -  one-half  r e l a t e d to the  q u a l i t y , and home  Only t e n percent were f o r reasons  t o the neighborhood.  related  Neighborhood c o n s i d e r a t i o n s  were a l s o d e p i c t e d t o be secondary  to dwelling unit  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n the e v a l u a t i o n of the most r e c e n t move, 32 percent  o f the people  j u d g i n g the  success  o f t h e i r move i n terms o f the d w e l l i n g u n i t ,  compared  t o 22 percent i n terms of neighborhood f e a t u r e s . In M i c h e l s o n s 1  those moving and  study o f the e x p e c t a t i o n s of  i n t e n d i n g t o move w i t h i n a suburban  s i n g l e - f a m i l y d w e l l i n g u n i t a r e a and a h i g h - r i s e downtown a r e a i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Toronto, by the g r e a t e s t percentage unit interior  the f e a t u r e s mentioned  of movers were d w e l l i n g  ( s i z e and l a y o u t ) , e x t e r i o r s e t t i n g ,  neighborhood, i n t h a t o r d e r  (Michelson,  1972).  and  32  Deutschman (1971) has r e l a t e d reasons f o r moving to  d i f f e r e n t groupings, a c c o r d i n g t o age o f household  heado was  The  need t o change the s i z e of r e s i d e n c e  the most imoortant reason f o r moving f o r households  whose heads f e l l  i n t o the f o l l o w i n g age  categories:  25-34, 35-44, and 45-54.  In a d d i t i o n , at l e a s t  40  p e r c e n t o f the households  i n the c a t e g o r i e s a t t r i b u t e d  moving t o f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the d w e l l i n g u n i t s i z e , type, and r e n t . the most importance  The 45-54 age group  t o neighborhood  attributed  type and s c h o o l s ,  but o n l y 11 percent o f them i n d i c a t e d t h i s t o be a reason f o r changing r e s i d e n c e . Two  s t u d i e s d e p i c t i n g l o c a t i o n t o work t o be of  some importance  i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e f o r  i n t r a - c i t y migrants and migrants from the c i t y t o the suburbs were those by L a n s i n g et a l . (1964) and W o l f o r t h (1965).  L a n s i n g e t a l . found t h a t s l i g h t l y more than  o n e - t h i r d o f movers decided on a maximum journey time to  work when s e a r c h i n g f o r a new  home, and over  p e r c e n t of these kept w i t h i n t h e i r l i m i t .  90  While  W o l f o r t h found t h a t i n Vancouver C i t y d i s t a n c e from work had l i t t l e  e f f e c t i n determining r e s i d e n t i a l  l o c a t i o n , i t d i d i n f l u e n c e p l a n t workers i n p e r i p h e r a l workplaces.  33  Both Ross (1961-62) and B u t l e r et a l . (1969) a n a l y z e d the reasons f o r moving a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams.  While over 50 percent o f  those moving w i t h i n a l o c a l area (approximately one square m i l e ) i n Ross's study moved because of d w e l l i n g u n i t f e a t u r e s , convenience o f l o c a t i o n was  a more  important r e a s o n f o r those moving from the l e s s p a r t s o f Boston i n t o the c e n t r a l c i t y a r e a .  central  In B u t l e r ' s  a n a l y s i s o f movements w i t h i n s e v e r a l m e t r o p o l i t a n areas i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s , the need f o r a d d i t i o n a l space was  the most important r e a s o n f o r moves i n the c i t y  the  suburbs, and from the c e n t r a l c i t y t o the  areas.  Neighborhood  important.  and  suburban  f a c t o r s were not c i t e d as  The two most important reasons f o r  movement from the suburbs t o the c i t y were convenience o f . l o c a t i o n t o j o b , and the d e s i r e f o r a s m a l l e r l o t size. B.  Movement i n t o M e t r o p o l i t a n Areas from Outside Areas Households moving i n t o a m e t r o p o l i t a n area can  come from o t h e r communities,  both urban and  rural,  w i t h i n the same country, or from other c o u n t r i e s . Both are g e n e r a l l y motivated by d i f f e r e n t  factors  from those which operate w i t h i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n environment.  34  1.  Movement from Outside Areas W i t h i n the Same Country a.  Economic Reasons  S t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t the most important for  reasons  i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n are job r e l a t e d o r  economic.  While most o f the evidence f o r t h i s  has  been based on r e s e a r c h u s i n g secondary sources, such as census data, a -few d i r e c t surveys have -also been done, mostly as p a r t s o f other s t u d i e s . Ross (1961-62)  showed t h a t 7 4 percent of those  m i g r a t i n g from o u t s i d e the Boston M e t r o p o l i t a n area i n t o the c e n t r a l c i t y moved f o r reasons o f convenience, (Ross, 1961-62).  such as c l o s e n e s s t o work and f r i e n d s  S i m i l a r l y , i n B u t l e r ' s study, job chances  or r e t i r e m e n t  were the most important reasons f o r movine from areas o u t s i d e the m e t r o p o l i t a n area i n t o the suburbs city  (Butler et a l .  t  1969).  Another  and the  study,  a n a l y z i n g the reasons f o r both s h o r t d i s t a n c e and l o n g d i s t a n c e moves, was conducted by Whitney and G r i g g (1958). They found t h a t 9 0 percent of the l o n g d i s t a n c e moves were f o r "economic" r e a s o n s . In of  a s e p a r a t e study o f the g e o g r a p h i c a l m o b i l i t y  l a b o r i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s , L a n s i n g and M u e l l e r  (1967) d i s c o v e r e d t h a t most i n t e r - c o u n t y moves were motivated by j o b - r e l a t e d  factors.  35 Researchers  u s i n g secondary sources o f data  have d e p i c t e d income d i f f e r e n t i a l s between p l a c e s o f o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n t o be s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d t o m i g r a t i o n r a t e s between them. Canadian census data, found  Mclnnis  (1969), u s i n g  p r o v i n c i a l income  d i f f e r e n c e s t o be an important  predictor of inter-  p r o v i n c i a l m i g r a t i o n f o r the years  1956-61.  Similarly,  Laber et a l . (1971), Courchene (1970), and Vanderkamp (1971) p o r t r a y e d income d i f f e r e n t i a l s t o be s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d with i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n i n Canada. S i m i l a r r e s u l t s were o b t a i n e d by Greenwood  and Gormely  (1971) and A. Rogers (1968) i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s . Other s t u d i e s u s i n g secondary sources have found  o f data  i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n t o be r e l a t e d t o  d i f f e r e n c e s i n employement  o p p o r t u n i t i e s between the  areas o f o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n .  F o r example,  Lowry (1966), i n h i s study o f the determinants  of  m i g r a t i o n flows between 90 m e t r o p o l i t a n areas i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s d u r i n g the 1950-60 decade, found  migration  d i f f e r e n t i a l s t o be l a r g e l y a f u n c t i o n o f employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s a t the place of d e s t i n a t i o n .  Vanderkamp  (1968) and Courchene (1970) i n Canada found  unemployment  d i f f e r e n c e s t o account f o r a c o n s i d e r a b l e p o r t i o n o f interregional migration.  I n the U n i t e d S t a t e s ,  (1968) d e p i c t e d the unemployed t o have a h i g h e r t o migrate  than the employed, w h i l e F a b r i c a n t  Kasnick propensity  (1970)  36 found l a b o r s u p p l y and demand t o account f o r a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of m i g r a t i o n between s t a t e s . Ladinsky  (1967) r e l a t e d m i g r a t i o n d i f f e r e n t i a l s  t o d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n economic b.  expansion,  Non-Economic Reasons  Although economic c o n s i d e r a t i o n s have been c i t e d as the most important f a c t o r s determining i n t e r r e g i o n a l migration, other features also a f f e c t i t .  For example,  i n the study p u b l i s h e d by the U.S.A. Bureau o f Labor Statistics,  (1963), non-economic reasons c i t e d f o r  i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n were reasons r e l a t e d to marriage and the f a m i l y  (15 p e r c e n t ) and  I n L a n s i n g and M u e l l e r ' s study  " o t h e r " reasons  (35 p e r c e n t ) .  (1967), "non-economic" and  "no r e a s o n " accounted, r e s p e c t i v e l y , f o r 23 and 5 p e r c e n t of the i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n . Other reasons suggested i n the l i t e r a t u r e have been the more s t i m u l a t i n g c u l t u r a l  environment  o f some urban c e n t r e s , and c l i m a t i c d i f f e r e n c e s between r e g i o n s (M. J . Greenwood, 1968: 2.  Households The  T.lni. Rogers,  1968).  Moving from Other C o u n t r i e s  reasons f o r immigration tend t o v a r y w i t h  the economic and p o l i t i c a l circumstances o f the country o f o r i g i n .  Three o f the more important reasons •  f o r e m i g r a t i o n have been p o l i t i c a l  instability,  37  o v e r - p o p u l a t i o n , and l a c k o f economic o p p o r t u n i t y i n the country o f o r i g i n .  Thomas (1959), i n a review  o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n , i n d i c a t e s these t o have been o f importance i n d i f f e r e n t periods.  Dudley and Hyuck (1965)  reasons  historical  i n their discussion  o f postwar m i g r a t i o n from E a s t e r n European c o u n t r i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t w h i l e e m i g r a t i o n was p r i m a r i l y due t o p o l i t i c a l o p p r e s s i o n , economic and p o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e a l s o played a r o l e .  Other a r t i c l e s and authors have  s t r e s s e d economic motives f o r e m i g r a t i n g ( " I n t e r n a t i o n a l Migration S t a t i s t i c s " ,  1964; "Economic and S o c i a l  F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g M i g r a t i o n " , 1953; Spengler,  1956).  Research on the r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s c o n s i d e r e d important tended  by new immigrants i n t h e i r c h o i c e o f a home  t o emphasize the r o l e o f " e t h n i c r e c e i v i n g  neighborhoods" or " m i n o r i t y neighborhoods".  Such  neighborhoods, composed o f the same e t h n i c or m i n o r i t y group as the immigrant, tend t o be o f low  socio-economic  s t a t u s because most r e c e n t immigrants have l i t t l e  capital  and tend t o be u n s k i l l e d .  I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e "economic  s e c u r i t y " p r o v i d e d by such  communities, they a l s o  p r o v i d e s o c i a l s e c u r i t y o r a sense o f community. c u l t u r e and l i f e - s t y l e  The  o f the immigrant i s u s u a l l y  d i f f e r e n t from t h a t i n the country i n t o which he i s immigrating,  and he f i n d s c u l t u r a l comfort  i n the ethnic  38  or minority III.  community.  Summary 1.  S t u d i e s have d e p i c t e d t h a t f a m i l i e s move  w i t h i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a i n order t o b r i n e r e s i d e n t i a l environment i n l i n e with t h e i r  their  residential  needs. a.  F o r f a m i l i e s moving w i t h i n the c i t y and from  the c i t y t o the suburbs, r e s i d e n t i a l needs have o f t e n changed, c r e a t i n g i n c o n g r u e n c i e s between the household's needs and the r e s i d e n t i a l environment.  The changes  i n the household's needs have most o f t e n been generated by l i f e - c y c l e changes.  I n some cases, changes i n  socio-economic s t a t u s have a l s o been important reasons f o r moving.  Dwelling unit features, e s p e c i a l l y  size,  have been most o f t e n d e p i c t e d as important i n the movement from one r e s i d e n c e and i n the c h o i c e o f another. b.  F o r f a m i l i e s moving from the suburbs t o  the c i t y , l o c a t i o n t o j o b has been an important reason f o r moving. 2.  S t u d i e s have p o r t r a y e d economic f a c t o r s t o have  c o n t r i b u t e d most t o i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n , or movement from other m e t r o p o l i t a n areas and r u r a l  areas  i n the same country, and t o immigration from o t h e r countries. political  In the case o f the l a t t e r ,  however,  and demographic f a c t o r s have a l s o been important.  39  F a m i l i e s moving i n t o a m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a from other c o u n t r i e s have i n t h e i r c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e a t t a c h e d importance to the s o c i a l and economic o f f e r e d by " e t h n i c r e c e i v i n g  neighborhoods."  security  40  CHAPTER I I I : METHODOLOGY I,  Development o f Hypotheses A.  Hypotheses 1.  R e l a t e d t o the M i g r a t i o n  Hypotheses  Streams  R e l a t e d t o the D e c i s i o n t o Move  S t u d i e s have demonstrated  t h a t a number o f f a c t o r s  i n f l u e n c e t h e movement o f f a m i l i e s .  F a m i l i e s moving  w i t h i n the c i t y and from the c i t y t o t h e suburbs tend t o be m o t i v a t e d by a d i v e r g e n c e between t h e i r environment changes.  residential  and r e s i d e n t i a l needs, generated by l i f e - c y c l e  There i s some, although l e s s , evidence t o  i n d i c a t e t h a t such i n c o n g r u e n c i e s a r e caused by socio-economic changes.  The f e a t u r e s o f the r e s i d e n t i a l  environment which tend t o be most o f t e n i n c o n f l i c t w i t h household needs concern the d w e l l i n g u n i t and p a r t i c u l a r l y  space.  Neighborhood  are o f secondary importance.  itself,  considerations  F o r f a m i l i e s moving from  t h e suburbs t o t h e c i t y , convenience o f l o c a t i o n p l a y s an important r o l e i n t h e d e c i s i o n t o move. In contrast to intra-metropolitan migration, m i g r a t i o n i n t o the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a tends t o be m o t i v a t e d by economic  and j o b - r e l a t e d r e a s o n s .  This i s true f o r  households coming from o t h e r p a r t s o f t h e country, and ' from o t h e r c o u n t r i e s .  I n a d d i t i o n , c l i m a t i c and  c u l t u r a l considerations influence interregional migration,  w h i l e p o l i t i c a l u n r e s t and demographic f a c t o r s a f f e c t m i g r a t i o n from o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . The p r e c e d i n g r e s u l t s , d e p i c t i n g reasons f o r m i g r a t i o n , suggest t h e f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s : Hypothesis I F a m i l i e s moving i n t o c i t y areas from d i f f e r e n t w i l l be m o t i v a t e d by s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t S e v e r a l sub-hypotheses  origins  reasons.  d e s c r i b e more d e t a i l e d  reasons which are presumed t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n streams. Sub-hypothesis  1-1  Change o f j o b w i l l c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y more t o the o u t - m i g r a t i o n o f f a m i l i e s from areas  o u t s i d e the  m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a than from areas w i t h i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n area. Sub-hypothesis  1-2  L o c a t i o n t o j o b w i l l c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y more t o the movement o f f a m i l i e s from the suburban  areas than  from o t h e r a r e a s . Sub-hypothesis  1-3  F e a t u r e s r e l a t e d t o the d w e l l i n g u n i t and neighborhood w i l l c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y more t o the movement o f f a m i l i e s from other areas i n the c i t y than from areas o u t s i d e the c i t y .  42  There w i l l be an attempt t o determine whether s i g n i f i c a n t socio-economic and l i f e - c y c l e  differences  e x i s t amongst t h e m i g r a t i o n streams - movement w i t h i n the c i t y , movement between the c i t y and the suburbs, and movement i n t o t h e c i t y from o u t s i d e a r e a s . l i t e r a t u r e has demonstrated  The  t h a t movement t o the  suburbs tends t o be motivated by both l i f e - c y c l e and socio-economic changes, w h i l e movement w i t h i n the c i t y tends t o be r e l a t e d p r i m a r i l y t o l i f e - c y c l e The sample t o be used i n t e s t i n g the hypotheses  changes. i n this  t h e s i s , b e i n g f a m i l i e s w i t h c h i l d r e n a t the elementary school l e v e l ,  i s expected t o be too homogeneous t o  r e v e a l any s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n l i f e - c y c l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s between t h e m i g r a t i o n streams.  Evidence  i n o t h e r s t u d i e s , f a v o r i n g the socio-economic e x p l a n a t i o n o f r e s i d e n t i a l m o b i l i t y , tends t o be limited.  Consequently, i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o propose  r e l a t i o n s h i p s between socio-economic s t a t u s and m i g r a t i o n w i t h any degree o f c o n f i d e n c e .  These  r e l a t i o n s h i p s and those between m i g r a t i o n streams and l i f e - c y c l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i l l t h e r e f o r e be approach i n an e x p l o r a t o r y manner.  In a d d i t i o n , t h e r e w i l l  also  be an i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the m i g r a t i o n streams and other v a r i a b l e s , such as changes i n type, tenure, c o s t , and l i v i n g space o f housing, areas c o n s i d e r e d i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e , and the  43  reasons f o r c o n s i d e r i n g the a r e a s .  2.  Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o the Choice o f a Residence I t would seem reasonable t h a t the c o n s i d e r a t i o n s  which prompt the d e c i s i o n t o move w i l l be r e f l e c t e d i n the c h o i c e o f a new r e s i d e n c e . o f hypotheses  The second s e t  l i n k s these c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t o the  d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams. Hypothesis I I The  importance  a t t a c h e d t o d i f f e r e n t f e a t u r e s i n the  c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e by f a m i l i e s moving i n t o  city  areas from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s w i l l vary s i g n i f i c a n t l y . Sub-hypothesis I I - l F a m i l i e s moving i n t o c i t y areas from other areas i n the c i t y w i l l a t t a c h more importance f e a t u r e s and neighborhood  to dwelling unit  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s than  families  moving from areas o u t s i d e the c i t y . Sub-hypothesis I I - 2 F a m i l i e s moving i n t o c i t y areas from areas o u t s i d e the c i t y w i l l a t t a c h more importance  to locational considerations  than f a m i l i e s moving from o t h e r areas o f the c i t y .  44  Immigrants from other c o u n t r i e s have t o move i n t o areas populated by t h e i r own groups. Chinese  tended ethnic  While e t h n i c communities, s«ch as the S t r a t h c o n a area, do e x i s t i n Vancouver C i t y ,  the s c h o o l areas t o be sampled, although immigrants,  receiving  are not p e r c e i v e d as being c h a r a c t e r i z e d  by any p a r t i c u l a r e t h n i c group.  T h e r e f o r e the  social  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the sample neighborhood i n the present study are expected r e s i d e n t i a l c h o i c e o f the  t o be unimportant immigrant  i n the  0  B. Hypotheses R e l a t e d to S p e c i f i c School  Areas  V a r i a t i o n s i n the m i g r a t i o n streams which c h a r a c t e r i z e s c h o o l areas s h o u l d be r e f l e c t e d i n the importance a t t a c h e d t o the d i f f e r e n t features.  The  following  residential  hypotheses p o r t r a y these  expectations. Hypothesis The  III  importance a t t a c h e d t o d i f f e r e n t r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s  by f a m i l i e s moving i n t o s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams w i l l vary  significantly.  Sub-Hypothesis I I I - l More importance w i l l be a t t a c h e d to d w e l l i n g u n i t and neighborhood f e a t u r e s i n s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by an i n - m i g r a t i o n of f a m i l i e s from other areas i n the city.  45  Sub-hypothesis  III-2  More importance w i l l be a t t a c h e d t o l o c a t i o n t o j o b i n s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by an in-mi£ration o f f a m i l i e s from areas o u t s i d e the c i t y . The  a n a l y s i s o f the reasons why f a m i l i e s move out  o f s c h o o l areas i s r e s t r i c t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s t o movement t o other s c h o o l s i n Vancouver C i t y and t o the suburban areas.  T h i s was because the new addresses  of families  moving t o p l a c e s o u t s i d e the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a were too d i f f i c u l t  to obtain.  The f i n a l  hypothesis  r e l a t e s t h i s out-migration t o r e s i d e n t i a l features. Hypothesis  Four  R e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s w i l l c o n t r i b u t e t o the movement o f f a m i l i e s from s c h o o l areas t o other s c h o o l areas i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a . more important  They w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t l y  i n s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a net  o u t - m i g r a t i o n t o o t h e r s c h o o l areas i n the c i t y . As i n the case o f the a n a l y s i s o f l i f e - c y c l e and socio-economic  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and o t h e r  factors  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h m i g r a t i o n , the a n a l y s i s o f these r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n s c h o o l areas w i t h d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s w i l l be e x p l o r a t o r y .  46 Ho  T e s t i n g o f the Hypotheses • A»  The  B a s i s f o r the  Sample  In order t o t e s t the hypotheses, a q u e s t i o n n a i r e was  sent t o f a m i l i e s with elementary s c h o o l  children  moving i n and  age  out of s c h o o l areas i n Vancouver  4 City. why  The  questionnaire  was  designed  t o determine  f a m i l i e s had moved from t h e i r p r e v i o u s  and the reasons  f o r t h e i r choice of t h e i r  residence, present  residence. T e s t i n g of hypotheses three and f o u r n e c e s s i t a t e d the sampling  of s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by  m i g r a t i o n streams.  I t was  different  f e l t that a cluster  sampling  o f such s c h o o l areas would p r o v i d e a s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e sample of each m i g r a t i o n stream t o t e s t the f i r s t hypotheses and t h e i r r e l a t e d  two  sub-hypotheses.  In order to c l u s t e r sample a p p r o p r i a t e s c h o o l affected  by d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams, a  areas  separate  study o f the e f f e c t s which m i g r a t i o n streams were having on the s p e c i f i c s c h o o l areas i n Vancouver C i t y necessary.  The  only m i g r a t i o n data possessed  was by  the  Vancouver School Board F l a n n i n g Department r e l a t e d net m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s f o r the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t The a two  and  1972. ITi  study was  See  made i n the summer o f 1972  to  as a whole. and  one-half year p e r i o d - October 1, 1969  M i g r a t i o n d u r i n g a p a r t i c u l a r s c h o o l year  covered t o May was  Appendix A f o r a copy of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e .  1,  47  considered to have occurred between October 1 and September 30 as many of the transfers registered at the opening of schools i n September had a c t u a l l y occurred p r i o r to t h i s time. Secretaries of the 93 elementary schools (including annexes) i n Vancouver City were asked to complete a 5 form  d e t a i l i n g the number of students from t h e i r schools  t r a n s f e r r i n g to and from the following areas: a.  Vancouver City;  b.  Lower Mainland  (Metropolitan Vancouver exclusive  of Vancouver C i t y ) ; c.  areas outside the Lower Mainland, including other countries, other provinces, and other parts of B r i t i s h Columbia;  d.  private schools; and  e.  others, which were b a s i c a l l y "unknowns" or students with incomplete  t r a n s f e r records.  Those t r a n s f e r r i n g between schools i n Vancouver C i t y were separated into two groups - those changing  addresses  and moving to a d i f f e r e n t school, and those maintaining t h e i r addresses but changing schools. The survey indicated that migration streams caused a much greater turnover of student population i n some areas of the c i t y than i n others. 5.  Maps I and II portray  See Appendix B f o r a copy of the form.  48  m o b i l e and s t a b l e s c h o o l areas, r e s p e c t i v e l y .  The  former was d e f i n e d as one i n which the t r a n s f e r s i n and out f o r t h e two and o n e - h a l f year p e r i o d c o n s t i t u t e d 50 p e r c e n t  or more o f the numbers o f students e n r o l l e d  i n the s c h o o l f o r the same p e r i o d .  Stable  areas  c o n t a i n e d s c h o o l s i n which the t r a n s f e r s i n and out c o n s t i t u t e d 3 0 percent o r l e s s o f the student  population.  The r a t e o f change i n student p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l s caused by m i g r a t i o n was not always g r e a t e s t f o r s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a h i g h r a t e o f m o b i l i t y . Nevertheless, were expressed  when, f o r example, net l o s s e s and g a i n s as a percentage o f the s c h o o l  enrollments  f o r the 1 9 7 0 - 7 1 s c h o o l p e r i o d , the s c h o o l areas r e l a t i v e l y h i g h "net l o s s p e r c e n t a g e s "  tended t o be  those w i t h r e l a t i v e l y h i g h r a t e s o f m o b i l i t y . twelve  with  Of the  s c h o o l areas w i t h r e l a t i v e l y h i g h r a t e s o f m o b i l i t y ,  seven had r e l a t i v e l y h i g h "net l o s s or g a i n  percentages"  6 (9 percent  or h i g h e r ) .  The remaining  five  schools  tended t o be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a moderate r a t e o f student mobility.  Only one s c h o o l w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y low r a t e  o f student m o b i l i t y had a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n change. comparatively  The e n r o l l m e n t  of t h i s school  was  s m a l l and s m a l l changes i n the number o f  students meant r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e r a t e s o f change. F! I n terms o f a c t u a l changes i n student p o p u l a t i o n , a net l o s s or g a i n percentage o f 9% was e q u i v a l e n t t o a change i n e n r o l l m e n t o f at l e a s t 3 0 students (one c l a s s r o o m ) .  'mm  51  On the basis of the varying impacts which the d i f f e r e n t migration streams had on the student pooulation i n Vancouver City, three school areas were chosen f o r the survey. and boundaries.  Map I I I portrays t h e i r l o c a t i o n  These had varying rates of both  student mobility and changes i n student population. The three school areas were characterized by d i f f e r e n t migration streams.  Table 4 portrays the r e l a t i v e  importance i n 1970-71 of each migration stream to be sampled i n the three school areas. In the Lord Roberts school area, the transfers i n and out constituted 76.1% of i t s enrollment, and the increase i n i t s student ponulation f o r the 1970-71 period was 14.7% (85 students).  The most important  migration stream was in-migration from areas outside the Lower Mainland.  This was also primarily responsible  f o r the r e l a t i v e l y high increase i n student population f o r t h i s period.  However, Lord Roberts also experienced  a s l i g h t net gain from other schools i n Vancouver C i t y . In the Lord Tennyson area which was also characterized by a r e l a t i v e l y large amount of mobility, the transfers i n and out constituted 55.5% of i t s enrollment.  However,  i n contrast to Lord Roberts, i t s student population experienced a r e l a t i v e l y large decrease  (10.7%),  equivalent to 55 students, during the 1970-71 period.  53  The  s t r o n g e s t m i g r a t i o n streams were those  Lord Tennyson and  between  other Vancouver s c h o o l s , i n  p a r t i c u l a r m i g r a t i o n out t o other Vancouver s c h o o l s . T h i s exchange was  p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the  net l o s s o f students  from the a r e a .  An a d d i t i o n a l  f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the net l o s s o f was  the net o u t - m i g r a t i o n  t o the Lower M a i n l a n d .  In the Lord K i t c h e n e r out comprised only 20.4% experienced population  s c h o o l area, the t r a n s f e r s  o f the e n r o l l m e n t .  a r e l a t i v e l y small increase i n (2.5%).  The  l a t t e r was  i n c r e a s e o f 19 s t u d e n t s . f o r L o r d K i t c h e n e r was schools.  students  T h i s was  The  It student  equivalent to  main m i g r a t i o n  an  stream  i n - m i g r a t i o n from other Vancouver  p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the  net i n c r e a s e i n i t s student  ponulation,  slight  counteracting  the net l o s s t o the Lower M a i n l a n d . There was s c h o o l areas  l i t t l e v a r i a t i o n amongst the  three  i n terms of t h e i r t r a n s f e r s to and  the Lower Mainland, c o n s i s t e n t w i t h s c h o o l i n Vancouver C i t y as a whole.  areas  from  54  Table 4 P r o p o r t i o n o f T o t a l T r a n s f e r s i n Each S c h o o l S u b d i v i d e d by O r i g i n and D e s t i n a t i o n Vancouver C i t y , 1 9 7 0 - 7 1  Area,  9  S c h o o l Areas. T r a n s f e r r i n g From and To:  Proportions Transferring  From L o r d Roberts t o other Vancouver S c h o o l s : To L o r d Roberts from o t h e r Vancouver S c h o o l s :  14<>9% 19.3%  From L o r d Roberts t o Lower Mainland:* To L o r d Roberts from Lower Mainland:  10.9% 5.5%  To L o r d Roberts from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland:**  34.3%  From Lord Tennyson t o other Vancouver S c h o o l s : To L o r d Tennyson from o t h e r Vancouver S c h o o l s : From L o r d Tennyson t o Lower M a i n l a n d : To L o r d Tennyson from Lower Mainland: To Lord Tennyson from Lower M a i n l a n d :  areas o u t s i d e the  29.8% 20.2% 11.9% 8.6%  9.5%  From L o r d K i t c h e n e r t o other Vancouver S c h o o l s : To L o r d K i t c h e n e r from other Vancouver S c h o o l s :  12.7% 23.6%  From L o r d K i t c h e n e r t o Lower Mainland: To L o r d K i t c h e n e r from Lower Mainland:  10.3% 2.9%  To L o r d K i t c h e n e r from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland:  * Lower Mainland  14.9%  does not i n c l u d e Vancouver C i t y .  ** M i g r a n t s t o areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland are not sampled i n the study and t h e r e f o r e are not p o r t r a y e d i n the t a b l e .  55  B.  The  Sample  The names and addresses  o f students  transferring  i n and out o f each s c h o o l area are recorded a t the p a r t i c u l a r school.  Some o f the r e c o r d s are  i n some cases both the addresses  incomplete;  and s c h o o l s t o which  the students had t r a n s f e r r e d were unknown.  In o t h e r  cases, o n l y the s c h o o l s t o which the students  had  t r a n s f e r r e d were known. In to  the case of the l a t t e r ,  o b t a i n t h e i r addresses  involved.  an attempt  was made  by c o n t a c t i n g the s c h o o l s  Many of the students who  from the Lord Tennyson s c h o o l area  had  transferred,  in particular,  had a l r e a d y moved a g a i n . In i t was  regard t o t r a n s f e r s  t o the Lower Mainland,  i m p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n the new  Lower Mainland  schools.  addresses  from  Such i n f o r m a t i o n i s c o n s i d e r e d  c o n f i d e n t i a l , and o n l y i n the case o f Vancouver C i t y was  such i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e .  Lower Mainland  are consequently  T r a n s f e r e e s t o the under-represented  i n the sample. These d i f f i c u l t i e s i n sampling  were r e f l e c t e d  i n the sample obtained f o r the separate s c h o o l areas (Table 5).  A comparison of Tables 4 and 5 i n d i c a t e s -  t h a t out-migrants  to the Lower Mainland were p a r t i c u l a r l y  56  under-represented L o r d Roberts  i n the Lord Roberts  For  both  and Lord Tennyson, t h e r e were more  i n - m i g r a n t s from the Lower Mainland out-migrants  area.  to t h i s area.  The  sampled than  actual transfer  r e c o r d s f o r the time p e r i o d sampled demonstrated a net l o s s t o t h i s area, and not a net g a i n . Another d i s c r e p a n c y between Tables 4 and  5 occurred  i n the t r a n s f e r s between Lord Tennyson and other i n Vancouver C i t y .  schools  A t a b u l a t i o n o f the a c t u a l t r a n s f e r s  between L o r d Tennyson and o t h e r Vancouver s c h o o l s f o r the sampled time p e r i o d d e p i c t e d a net l o s s t o o t h e r Vancouver s c h o o l s , as e x i s t e d i n 1970-71*  However,  the sampled number o f t r a n s f e r s out to o t h e r Vancouver schools f e l l  s h o r t of the number of t r a n s f e r s i n t o  the  school area. C.  Returns o f the The  Questionnaire  q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were m a i l e d to the parents  approximately  one week l a t e r , a l e t t e r o f reminder  sent out t o those who 202  Of these, 43.6%  f a m i l i e s i n t h i s area.  48%  were from f a m i l i e s  t r a n s f e r r i n g i n and out o f Lord Roberts T h i s r e p r e s e n t e d 40.6%  was  had not r e t u r n e d the q u e s t i o n n a i r e .  q u e s t i o n n a i r e s were r e t u r n e d , approximately  o f those m a i l e d .  and,  school area.  of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e s sent t o Of the remainder, 28.2%  were  from f a m i l i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the Lord Tennyson a r e a .  such  57 Table 5 Proportion of the T o t a l Transfers Sampled i n Each School Area, Subdivided by Origin and Destination, Vancouver Citv, Sept. 1, 1971 to Feb. 10, 1973* School Areas, Transferring From and To:  Proportions Transferring  From Lord Roberts to other Vancouver Schools: To Lord Roberts from other Vancouver Schools:  16.6$ 22.6$  From Lord Roberts to Lower Mainland:** To Lord Roberts from Lower Mainland:  4.6$ 17.0$  To Lord Roberts from areas outside the Lower Mainland:***  39.2$  From Lord Tennyson to other Vancouver Schools: To Lord Tennyson from other Vancouver Schools:  30.4$ 40.0$  From Lord Tennyson to Lower Mainland: To Lord Tennyson from Lower Mainland: To Lord Tennyson from areas outside the Lower Mainland: From Lord Kitchener to other Vancouver Schools: To Lord Kitchener from other Vancouver Schools: From Lord Kitchener to Lower Mainland: To Lord Kitchener from Lower Mainland: To Lord Kitchener from areas outside the Lower Mainland:  8.9$ 7.2$ 13.6$ 18.8$ 50.5$ 11.9$ 7.7$ 10.9$  * The time period chosen f o r the sample was Sept. 1, 1971 to Feb. 10, 1973, the l a t t e r being the time at which the questionnaires were mailed. I t was f e l t that the time period would be s u f f i c i e n t l y long to provide an adequate sample, but not too long to prevent respondents from accurately r e c a l l i n g necessary information. ** Lower Mainland does not include Vancouver C i t y . *** Migrants to areas outside the Lower Mainland are not sampled i n the study and therefore are not portrayed i n the t a b l e .  58  The  same percentage  i n and  were r e t u r n e d by f a m i l i e s moving  out of the L o r d K i t c h e n e r a r e a .  The  returned  q u e s t i o n n a i r e s r e p r e s e n t e d 4 5 . 6 % o f those r e l a t i n g t o the L o r d Tennyson area, and  56.5% f o r the Lord K i t c h e n e r  area. A comparison o f T a b l e s 5 and 6 i n d i c a t e s  the  proportion of questionnaires returned r e l a t i v e to the p r o p o r t i o n sampled.  There were some d i s c r e p a n c i e s  between the p r o p o r t i o n a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the m i g r a t i o n streams i n the sample and i n the F o r example, t h e r e was transferring  a g r e a t e r response  i n t o L o r d Roberts  responses. from  families  and from other Vancouver  s c h o o l a r e a s , than from f a m i l i e s t r a n s f e r r i n g i n the reverse d i r e c t i o n . On the whole, the dominant m i g r a t i o n streams f o r each s c h o o l area were adequately example, the response the Lower Mainland the number sampled.  represented.  For  o f i n - m i g r a n t s from areas o u t s i d e  was  approximately  In-migrants  i n proportion to  i n t o the L o r d K i t c h e n e r  area from o t h e r Vancouver s c h o o l s responded s i m i l a r l y . I n the L o r d Tennyson area, however, the p r o p o r t i o n o f responses  from i n - m i g r a n t s from other Vancouver C i t y  s c h o o l areas was  l e s s than t h a t sampled.  Those  t r a n s f e r r i n g t o other Vancouver s c h o o l s were overrepresented.  N e v e r t h e l e s s , w h i l e these responses  were  not i n the p r o p o r t i o n s sampled, the r e l a t i v e p r o p o r t i o n s  59 Table 6 Proportion of Total Transfers Responding to Questionnaire i n Each School Area, Subdivided by Origin and Destination, Vancouver City, Sept. 1, 1971 to Feb. 10, 1973 School Areas, Transferring From and  T o : P r o p o r t i o n Responding  From Lord Roberts to other Vancouver Schools: To Lord Roberts from other Vancouver Schools:  24.4% 16.6%  From Lord Roberts to' Lower Mainland:* To Lord Roberts from Lower Mainland:  4.45^ 13.3%  To Lord Roberts from areas outside the Lower Mainland:**  41.1%  From Lord Tennyson to other Vancouver Schools: To Lord Tennyson from other Vancouver Schools:  40.0% 25.0%  From Lord Tennyson t o Lower Mainland: To Lord Tennyson from Lower Mainland:  8.3% 8.3%  To Lord Tennyson from areas outside the Lower Mainland:  18.3%  From Lord Kitchener to other Vancouver Schools: To Lord Kitchener from other Vancouver Schools:  23.2% 48.2%  From Lord Kitchener to Lower Mainland: To Lord Kitchener from Lower Mainland: To Lord Kitchener from areas outside the Lower Mainland:  7.1/f 7.1% 14.3%  * Lower Mainland does not include Vancouver C i t y . ** Migrants to areas outside the Lower Mainland are not sampled i n the study and therefore are not portrayed i n the table.  60  Table 7 P r o p o r t i o n o f T o t a l T r a n s f e r s , T o t a l ^ample, and T o t a l Responses, Represented by Each M i g r a t i o n Stream Prop, o f Total Transfers Rep. by Migration Streams  Prop, o f Total Sample Rep. by Migration Streams  Prop, o f Total Transfers Rep. by Migration Streams  T r a n s f e r s Out t o o t h e r Vancouver Schools  22.3$  23.8$  29.2$  T r a n s f e r s In from o t h e r Vancouver Schools  25.5$  30.7$  29.9$  14.8$  7.4$  6.4$  8.2$  12.1$  9.9$  29.2$  26.0$  24.9$  Migration  Streams  T r a n s f e r s Out t o Lower M a i n l a n d T r a n s f e r s In from Lower M a i n l a n d  T r a n s f e r s In from areas o u t s i d e the Lower M a i n l a n d  •  * Lower M a i n l a n d does not i n c l u d e Vancouver C i t y .  61  f o r the two m i g r a t i o n streams d i d r e p r e s e n t the a c t u a l migration s i t u a t i o n .  There were more out-migrants  other Vancouver C i t y s c h o o l s than i n - m i g r a n t s ,  to  although  as p r e v i o u s l y e s t a b l i s h e d , the samDle d i d not r e f l e c t The  p r o p o r t i o n o f responses from  t o the Lower Mainland  might be so low  the r e s u l t s o f the study. r e l a t i v e l y few  out-migrants as t o a f f e c t  As i n d i c a t e d p r e v i o u s l y ,  of these f a m i l i e s c o u l d be  '  sampled.  I n a d d i t i o n , f o r the Lord K i t c h e n e r area, a s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n of those m i g r a t i n g t o the Lower  Mainland  responded t o the q u e s t i o n n a i r e than were sampled. The  r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l e r s i z e of the sample and o f the  response f o r the m i g r a t i o n stream between Vancouver C i t y and the Lower Mainland  this.  i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n Table  7.  62  CHAPTER IV: SURVEY RESULTS I.  Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o Reasons f o r O u t - M i g r a t i o n from D i f f e r e n t O r i g i n s i n t o ^ i t y S c h o o l Areas The f i r s t major h y p o t h e s i s s t a t e s t h a t t h e r e w i l l  be s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t reasons f o r the movement o f f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t areas i n t o the c i t y .  These  •expected d i f f e r e n c e s were d e l i n e a t e d i n a number o f sub-hypotheses.  They were reasons r e l a t e d to change of  job, l o c a t i o n t n j o b , and d w e l l i n g u n i t and  neighborhood  f e a t u r e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , f o r f a m i l i e s moving from outsidethe m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a (Diagram 1, M i g r a t i o n Stream A), from the suburbs  (Diagram 1, M i g r a t i o n Stream B), and  from o t h e r areas i n the c i t y Diagram  (Diagram 1, M i g r a t i o n Stream 1  M i g r a t i o n Streams A f f e c t i n g S c h o o l E n r o l l m e n t s i n Vancouver C i t y Outside M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver: M i g r a t i o n Stream A ,''Lower Mainland | M i g r a t i o n Stream B  N  M  ff g  Vancouver C i t y W \ '1% M j g ^ ^ t i o n stream C j  \  ~~ ~~~^ \  \  N  \ \ \  1 j  I j  /  I  C)  63  Q u e s t i o n 9, 18, and 19 o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e were used t o t e s t these hypotheses.  Question 9  i n d i c a t e d the three main areas o f o r i g i n f o r f a m i l i e s moving i n t o c i t y areas i n Vancouver.  Question 19  was the most important q u e s t i o n i n terms o f the response r a t e as i t p r o v i d e d a uniform s e t o f f a c t o r s t o which a l l households a list  c o u l d respond,,  I t contained  o f the p o s s i b l e reasons f o r the movement o f  f a m i l i e s , and respondents were asked t o i n d i c a t e the importance  o f these reasons.  Question 18, an  open-ended q u e s t i o n a s k i n g respondents  to state  the reasons f o r the movement out o f t h e i r p r e v i o u s r e s i d e n c e , was not answered as completely as q u e s t i o n 19. I t was more o f t e n used when the important reasons f o r the f a m i l y ' s o u t - m i g r a t i o n were not d e l i n e a t e d i n q u e s t i o n 19. Chi-square v a l u e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e r e were s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the f a c t o r s which c o n t r i b u t e d t o the m i g r a t i o n o f f a m i l i e s from v a r i o u s o r i g i n s 7 (Table 8 ) . For i n - m i g r a n t s from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland,  (Diagram  1, M i g r a t i o n Stream A), "change o f  j o b " and "other reasons" were s i g n i f i c a n t l y  more  important i n c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e i r m i g r a t i o n from 7. See Appendix C. f o r an e x p l a n a t i o n o f the Chi-Square and an i l l u s t r a t i o n o f i t s use i n the p r e s e n t studv.  •-64 t h e i r p r e v i o u s r e s i d e n c e than they were f o r f a m i l i e s o r i g i n a t i n g from o t h e r a r e a s .  Of the respondents  i n d i c a t i n g "change of j o b " and "other r e a s o n s " t o be o f importance, 46.0% and 60.5%, r e s p e c t i v e l y , were migrants from  areas o u t s i d e the Lower M a i n l a n d .  T h i s group c o n s t i t u t e d only 28.7% o f the sample o f i n - m i g r a n t s r e s p o n d i n g t o these v a r i a b l e s . The migrants i n d i c a t i n g  " d i s t a n c e from j o b " t o  be o f importance w«re from t h e Lower Mainland t o a disproportionate extent.  Of the respondents t o  t h i s v a r i a b l e , 10.7% were from the Lower Mainland, (Diagram 1, M i g r a t i o n Stream B), but 26.3% o f the f a m i l i e s c o n s i d e r i n g i t t o be o f importance i n t h e i r o u t - m i g r a t i o n were from the Lower M a i n l a n d . Housing f a c t o r s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important f o r f a m i l i e s who moved from other areas i n the c i t y , (Diagram 1, M i g r a t i o n Stream C), than they were f o r f a m i l i e s who moved from areas o u t s i d e t h e c i t y . Of the o u t - m i g r a t i n g f a m i l i e s s p e c i f y i n g housing f e a t u r e s t o be important, a t l e a s t 80% o f those from other c i t y areas noted each o f the f o l l o w i n g  specific  h o u s i n g f e a t u r e s : home too run down; home too l a r g e or s m a l l ; l a n d l o r d s o l d home; o f f e r e d a good p r i c e f o r home; and d e s i r e d n i c e r home and/or  neighborhood.  Two reasons r e l a t e d s p e c i f i c a l l y t o the neighborhood - "too much t r a f f i c " and "neighborhood t o o run down" were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important f o r  Q  65  f a m i l i e s who  moved out o f areas i n the c i t y  f o r f a m i l i e s who  than  moved out of areas o u t s i d e the  Of the o u t - m i g r a t i n g f a m i l i e s d e p i c t i n g these t o have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e i r movement,  city.  reasons  82.9%  and 76.7%, r e s p e c t i v e l y , were from other areas i n the city. The responses t o the open-ended q u e s t i o n ( q u e s t i o n 18) p r o v i d e d some a d d i t i o n a l i n s i g h t  into  the m o t i v a t i n g f a c t o r s which were o p e r a t i n g i n d i f f e r e n t areas.  For example, t h r e e "other reasons"  f o r moving, s i g n i f i c a n t at the .05 l e v e l , were c o n s i d e r e d important by a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e number o f f a m i l i e s moving from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland. These were c l i m a t i c , p o l i t i c a l , considerations.  and  cultural  Over 80% o f the households  specifying  these reasons t o be important were migrants from o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland, o f the respondents  29.5%  t o the q u e s t i o n .  G e n e r a l l o c a t i o n was v a r i a b l e which was  the l a t t e r c o m p r i s i n g  areas  a statistically  significant  s t a t e d t o be important by a  d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e number o f migrants from suburban areas.  In c o n t r a s t t o the 9.6%  which t h i s group  c o n s t i t u t e d of the t o t a l respondents 17.0%  t o the q u e s t i o n ,  s p e c i f i e d i t t o be important i n t h e i r o u t - m i g r a t i o n .  66  Table 8 F e a t u r e s Which Were S i g n i f i c a n t l y D i f f e r e n t i n Contributing to the M g r a t i o n of Families From D i f f e r e n t O r i g i n s i n t o Areas i n Vancouver C i t y Feature  Level of Significance  Change o f j o b .  005  Too f a r from j o b  01  Home t o o r u n down  025  Home t o o l a r g e or s m a l l  005  Did  005  not l i k e  d e s i g n o f home  L a n d l o r d s o l d home  05  O f f e r r e d a good p r i c e f o r home  05  Too much t r a f f i c  005  D e s i r e d n i c e r home and/or neighborhood... .005 Neighborhood t o o r u n down  05  Other reasons  005  f o r moving  SOURCE: From c h i - s q u a r e v a l u e s o b t a i n e d by c r o s s t a b u l a t i n g q u e s t i o n 19 (22 reasons f o r moving) with q u e s t i o n 9 (the m i g r a t i o n streams) o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e .  The  d e s i r e t o buy a home was a l s o a s t a t i s t i c a l l y  s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e a t the 95% l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e . Of m i g r a t i n g f a m i l i e s s t a t i n g i t t o be important, 92.9/0 were from other Vancouver C i t y a r e a s .  Of the  67  f a m i l i e s responding t o the q u e s t i o n , 61.0$ were from o t h e r Vancouver C i t y a r e a s . H y p o t h e s i s I and i t s a s s o c i a t e d sub-hypotheses have consequently been supported i n a s i g n i f i c a n t manner. of  statistically  However, w h i l e the c o n t r i b u t i o n  d i f f e r e n t motivating factors to out-migration varied  S i g n i f i c a n t l y i n terms o f the o r i g i n o f the f a m i l y , a r e l e v a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s the a b s o l u t e e x t e n t t o which they were important f o r f a m i l i e s from  different  origins. Job reasons c o n t r i b u t e d more t o the movement of  f a m i l i e s from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland  than  of  f a m i l i e s o r i g i n a t i n g from other a r e a s .  of  the f a m i l i e s from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland,  However,  o n l y 41.1$ and 46.4$, r e s p e c t i v e l y , d e p i c t e d "change of  j o b " and "other r e a s o n s " t o be important.  The  p r o p o r t i o n o f migrants from these areas s t a t i n g p o l i t i c a l and c l i m a t i c reasons, and the d e s i r e t o l i v e in a different to  c u l t u r a l s e t t i n g as h a v i n g c o n t r i b u t e d  t h e i r o u t - m i g r a t i o n was c o n s i d e r a b l y lower. For  f a m i l i e s o r i g i n a t i n g from the Lower Mainland  " l o c a t i o n t o j o b " was c o n s i d e r e d important by 47.6$ of  the f a m i l i e s , w h i l e " l o c a t i o n i n g e n e r a l " was  to  be important by 50$ o f these o u t - m i g r a n t s .  stated  68 I n t h e case o f f a m i l i e s who moved from o t h e r a r e a s i n Vancouver C i t y , o n l y two v a r i a b l e s were c o n s i d e r e d important  by 40% or more o f the f a m i l i e s .  These were s i z e o f home, and the d e s i r e f o r a n i c e r home, s p e c i f i e d as important o f these II.  by 48.7% and 47.1%, r e s p e c t i v e l y ,  out-migrants.  Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o Choice o f a The  Residence  second h y p o t h e s i s s t a t e d t h a t the importance  a t t a c h e d t o r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s i n the c h o i c e o f a home by f a m i l i e s from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s would v a r y significantly. were expected  D w e l l i n g u n i t and neighborhood f e a t u r e s t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y important  f o r families  who moved w i t h i n the c i t y , and l o c a t i o n f o r f a m i l i e s who moved from areas o u t s i d e the c i t y  (sub-hypotheses one  and two of h y p o t h e s i s two). The  second s e t o f hypotheses was t e s t e d by c r o s s -  t a b u l a t i n g q u e s t i o n 9 with q u e s t i o n s 22 and 23.  As  p r e v i o u s l y s t a t e d , q u e s t i o n 9 d e l i n e a t e d the area o f origin.  Question 23, a l i s t  of locational,  dwelling  u n i t , and neighborhood f e a t u r e s which might be important i n the c h o i c e o f a home, was more v a l u a b l e than q u e s t i o n 22. The  l a t t e r , an open-ended q u e s t i o n a s k i n g  t o i n d i c a t e t h e important  factors i n their  respondents residential  c h o i c e , w a s , l i k e q u e s t i o n 18, used mainly t o determine important  f a c t o r s not l i s t e d i n the c l o s e d q u e s t i o n .  69  The  chi-square values depicted s i g n i f i c a n t  d i f f e r e n c e s i n the importance a t t a c h e d t o most o f the housing f e a t u r e s , but t o o n l y a few o f the l o c a t i o n a l features  (Table 9 ) . Table 9  Features Which Were o f S i g n i f i c a n t l y D i f f e r e n t -Importance i n C o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e Choice o f a Home by F a m i l i e s from D i f f e r e n t O r i g i n s Feature  Level of Significance  C l o s e r t o shopping  025  Closer to recreational f a c i l i t i e s  05  S i z e o f home  01  Cost o r r e n t o f home  025  Design  or l a y o u t o f home  .005  SOURCE: From c h i - s a u a r e v a l u e s o b t a i n e d by c r o s s t a b u l a t i n g q u e s t i o n 23 (16 f a c t o r s important i n the c h o i c e o f a residence) with q u e s t i o n 9 (the m i g r a t i o n streams) o f t h e questionnaire,, Features  o f the d w e l l i n g u n i t were c o n s i d e r e d t o  be more important areas i n the c i t y ,  by f a m i l i e s who moved from o t h e r than they were by f a m i l i e s who  moved from areas o u t s i d e the c i t y .  Of i n - m i g r a t i n g  f a m i l i e s c o n s i d e r i n g s i z e t o be important,  68.1% were  from other areas i n t h e c i t y , w h i l e 60.9£> o f the respondents  t o t h i s q u e s t i o n were from t h i s a r e a .  Of  i n - m i g r a t i n g f a m i l i e s n o t i n g c o s t and d e s i g n o f home  70  t o be o f r e l e v a n c e i n t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l c h o i c e , 64.5% and 68.3%, r e s p e c t i v e l y , were from o t h e r areas.  In c o n t r a s t , 9.4%,  7.8%,  city  and 9.6% o f f a m i l i e s  i n d i c a t i n g s i z e , c o s t , and d e s i g n , r e s p e c t i v e l y , t o be r e l e v a n t were from the Lower Mainland. c o n s t i t u t e d 11.7% o f the respondents.  The l a t t e r In the case o f  i n - m i g r a n t s from areas o u t s i d e the Lower comprising 27.4% o f the respondents,  Mainland,  22.5%, 27.4%, and 18.4%  s p e c i f i e d s i z e , c o s t , and d e s i g n , r e s p e c t i v e l y , t o contribute to t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l choice. Of the i n - m i g r a t i n g f a m i l i e s , t h e r e was a tendency f o r a c o n s i d e r a b l y g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of f a m i l i e s from other c i t y areas than from areas o u t s i d e the c i t y t o note the importance of s p e c i f i c d w e l l i n g u n i t , features.  S i z e was c o n s i d e r e d important  by 78.3%,  47.8%, and 72.2% o f f a m i l i e s from other c i t y the Lower Mainland, respectively.  areas,  and areas o u t s i d e the Lower  Design o f home was important  Mainland,  t o 68.3%  o f f a m i l i e s from other c i t y areas, but only t o 47.8% o f families  from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland.  While d w e l l i n g u n i t f e a t u r e s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important,  i n the c h o i c e of a home, t o f a m i l i e s  who moved w i t h i n the c i t y , neighborhood f e a t u r e s were not.  With the e x c e p t i o n o f the " s t a t u s o f the neighborhood"  these f e a t u r e s were c o n s i d e r e d important 50% o f a l l i n - m i g r a n t s .  by more  There was not s u f f i c i e n t  than  71  v a r i a t i o n among t h e groups i n t h e importance t o " s t a t u s o f neighborhood", neighborhood",  attached  "type o f people i n  and " q u a l i t y o f s c h o o l " t o produce  c h i - s q u a r e v a l u e s which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y  significant  0  While t h e r e was thus some support f o r sub-hypothesis f o u r , d e a l i n g w i t h the r e l a t i v e importance o f d w e l l i n g u n i t and neighborhood  features i n r e s i d e n t i a l  c h o i c e , support f o r sub-hypothesis f i v e , d e a l i n g with l o c a t i o n a l f e a t u r e s , was more l i m i t e d .  Proximity  o f j o b was expected t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important i n the c h o i c e o f a home f o r migrants from areas o u t s i d e the c i t y than f o r f a m i l i e s . m o v i n g w i t h i n the c i t y . While a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f respondents from areas o u t s i d e t h e c i t y d i d s p e c i f y p r o x i m i t y o f j o b t o be important, the d i f f e r e n c e s were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e 05 l e v e l . o  • Two l o c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t were nearness t o shopping and t o r e c r e a t i o n a l facilities.  These were more important f o r f a m i l i e s  who moved from areas o u t s i d e t h e Lower Mainland  than  f o r f a m i l i e s who moved from both the Lower Mainland and other c i t y a r e a s . Nearness t o shopping was important f o r 77.8$ o f """ f a m i l i e s who moved from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland, but important f o r o n l y 47.8% and 58.3$ o f f a m i l i e s  72 from the Lower Mainland and o t h e r c i t y areas, respectively.  Of the i n - m i g r a n t s c o n s i d e r i n g i t  important i n t h e i r c h o i c e o f a home, 34.1% were f a m i l i e s from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland, a group which c o n s t i t u t e d 27.6%  o f the t o t a l  respondents.  D i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y fewer f a m i l i e s from the Lower Mainland and other - c i t y areas c o n s i d e r e d i t important.  Of the f a m i l i e s n o t i n g l o c a t i o n t o  shopping t o be imnortant, 8.9% and 56.9% were from the Lower Mainland and other c i t y areas, r e s p e c t i v e l y . The sample o f respondents was composed o f 11.7%  from  the Lower Mainland, and 60.9% from o t h e r c i t y a r e a s . S i m i l a r l y , o f the f a m i l i e s d e p i c t i n g  accessibility  t o r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s as c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e i r r e s i d e n t i a l c h o i c e , d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y fewer  were  from the Lower Mainland than o t h e r c i t y areas  (10.9%  and 55.5%, r e s p e c t i v e l y ) , r e l a t i v e t o t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n the sample (see a b o v e )  0  D i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y more were from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland  (33.6%).  Of the i n - m i g r a n t s from  areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland, 79.6%  specified  t h i s v a r i a b l e t o be important,. i n c o n t r a s t t o 60.9% f o r those from the Lower Mainland, and 59.2% f o r f a m i l i e s from o t h e r c i t y a r e a s .  73  The  f a c t o r s c o n s i d e r e d i n the c h o i c e o f a  r e s i d e n c e were noted as being important  by a g r e a t e r  p r o p o r t i o n o f f a m i l i e s from each a r e a o f o r i g i n , were reasons No  than  f o r moving from the p r e v i o u s r e s i d e n c e .  s i n g l e reason f o r moving was  been important  c o n s i d e r e d t o have  by more than 50% o f the f a m i l i e s .  c o n t r a s t , there were many f a c t o r s o f the environment c o n s i d e r e d important  In  residential  by more than  50$  o f the f a m i l i e s from each a r e a i n t h e i r c h o i c e o f a residence. III.  Hypotheses R e l a t e d to School A.  Areas  Hypotheses R e l a t e d t o the Choice  Hypothesis  t h r e e and i t s c o r r e s p o n d i n g  of a  Residence  sub-  hypotheses p r e d i c t e d t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s would e x i s t i n the importance a t t a c h e d t o r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s by f a m i l i e s moving i n t o s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams.  Dwelling  u n i t and neighborhood f e a t u r e s were presumed t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y important  f o r f a m i l i e s who  moved i n t o  s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by an i n - m i g r a t i o n from o t h e r c i t y areas.  L o c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s were a n t i c i p a t e d t o  be important  f o r s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by  i n - m i s r a t i o n from areas o u t s i d e the  city.  an  74 T a b l e 10 R e s i d e n t i a l F e a t u r e s Considered Important by More Than 50% o f F a m i l i e s from D i f f e r e n t O r i g i n s i n the Choice o f T h e i r Home O r i g i n o f Family  R e s i d e n t i a l Feature  F a m i l i e s from other c i t y areas  B e i n g near t o .-job.... Being near t o shoppine B e i n g near t o r e c r e a t i o n a l facilities Being near t o s c h o o l s S i z e o f home Q u a l i t y o f home Cost or r e n t o f home D e s i e n o r l a y o u t o f home S t a t u s o f neighborhood, Type o f people i n neighborhood Quality of schools  F a m i l i e s from the Lower Mainland  Families from' areas outside the Lower Mainland  Proportion of F a m i l i e s Attaching Importance to t h e Features  Being near t o job Being near t o r e c r e a t i o n a l facilities Being near t o s c h o o l s S i z e o f home Q u a l i t y o f home.. Type o f people i n • neighborhood Quality of schools B e i n g near t o job Being near t o shopping Being near t o r e c r e a t i o n a l facilities Being near t o s c h o o l s S i z e o f home Q u a l i t y o f home Cost or r e n t o f home Type o f people i n n e i g h b o r hood..... Q u a l i t y o f schools  55.8% 58.3% 59.2% 76.7% 78.3% 75.8% 75.8% 68.3% 50.9% 58.3% 7.17% 73.9% 60.9% 73.9% 56.5% 69.6% 52.2% 57.4% 68.5% 77.8% 79.6% 85.2% 57.4% 6A.8% 72.2% 51.9% 82.6%  SOURCE: C r o s s t a b u l a t i o n o f q u e s t i o n 23 ( f a c t o r s important i n t h e c h o i c e o f a home)with q u e s t i o n 9 (the m i g r a t i o n streams) o f the q u e s t i o n n a i r e . * Lower Mainland does not i n c l u d e Vancouver C i t y .  75 To t e s t the hypotheses,  q u e s t i o n 2, which  i n d i c a t e d the s c h o o l area i n t o which a f a m i l y had t r a n s f e r r e d , was c r o s s t a b u l a t e d with q u e s t i o n s 22 and 23, which as p r e v i o u s l y s t a t e d , p o r t r a y e d the f a c t o r s c o n s i d e r e d important a residence.  by f a m i l i e s i n the s e l e c t i o n o f  R e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s which were  s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z by d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams are l i s t e d t h e i r corresponding The  with  l e v e l s of s i g n i f i c a n c e i n Table 11  f e a t u r e s of the d w e l l i n g u n i t i t s e l f were  c o n s i d e r e d t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important  i n the  L o r d K i t c h e n e r area, which i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a net i n - m i s r a t i o n o f f a m i l i e s from o t h e r areas i n Vancouver C i t y , than i n the Lord Roberts  area,  c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a l a r g e i n f l u x o f f a m i l i e s from o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland.  areas  I n the Lord Tennyson  area, c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a net o u t - m i g r a t i o n t<"» o t h e r c i t y s c h o o l s , the responses  t o the r e s i d e n t i a l  v a r i a b l e s were, i n most cases, c l o s e s t t o the average f o r the sample. S i z e was c o n s i d e r e d t o be important  by 82.1$ o f  the f a m i l i e s who moved i n t o the Lord K i t c h e n e r area, but by o n l y 50.8% o f the f a m i l i e s who moved i n t o Roberts  area.  Q u a l i t y o f home was noted as  by 87.2$ o f migrants  Lord  important  i n t o the Lord K i t c h e n e r 'area,  76  but o n l y 57.4% o f those who moved i n t o Lord area.  Roberts  Of the f a m i l i e s who moved i n t o Lord K i t c h e n e r  area, 87.2% and 71.8% s p e c i f i e d c o s t and d e s i g n o f home, r e s p e c t i v e l y , t o be r e l e v a n t t o t h e i r c h o i c e o f home. T h i s c o n t r a s t e d w i t h 62.3% and 37.7% f o r t h e Lord Roberts  area. T a b l e 11  F e a t u r e s Important i n the Choice o f a Home Which V a r i e d S i g n i f i c a n t l y Between School Areas C h a r a c t e r i z e d by D i f f e r e n t M i g r a t i o n Streams Feature  Level of S i g n i f i c a n c e  Being near t o shopping  005  S i z e o f home  005  Q u a l i t y o f home  025  Cost or r e n t o f home  05  Design  005  or l a y o u t o f home...  S t a t u s o f neighborhood  01  Quality of school  005  SOURCE: From c h i - s q u a r e v a l u e s o b t a i n e d by c r o s s t a b u l a t i o n o f q u e s t i o n 23 (16 f a c t o r s important i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e ) with q u e s t i o n 2 ( s c h o o l areas i n t o which f a m i l i e s transferred) i n .questionnaire. The  f a m i l i e s i n the Lord K i t c h e n e r a r e a who  s p e c i f i e d d w e l l i n g u n i t f e a t u r e s t o be important a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h i s type o f respondent  contributed than  they  77  d i d o f the t o t a l number o f respondents. was t r u e i n the Lord Roberts  area.  The r e v e r s e  Of the respondents  t o t h e q u e s t i o n , 29.8% and 4 6 . 6 % were f a m i l i e s moved i n t o L o r d K i t c h e n e r and Lord Roberts areas, r e s p e c t i v e l y . size, quality,  who  school  Of the f a m i l i e s who s p e c i f i e d  c o s t , and d e s i g n -to be important,  37.6%, 38.2%, 36.6%, and 41.8% r e s p e c t i v e l y  had moved  i n t o the L o r d K i t c h e n e r a r e a , and 36.5%, 39.3%, 40.9%, and 34.3%, r e s p e c t i v e l y ,  i n t o the Lord Roberts  area.  Neighborhood c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important  f o r f a m i l i e s which had moved i n t o the  L o r d K i t c h e n e r area than i n t o the Lord Roberts S t a t u s o f neighborhood was i n d i c a t e d 69.2% o f migrants  to be important  o f . s c h o o l was more important  Similarly,  i t t o be important  i n c o n t r a s t t o 54.1% f o r Lord Roberts. who noted  quality  f o r those who moved i n t o  L o r d K i t c h e n e r j 87.2% i n d i c a t e d  Of the  s t a t u s o f neighborhood and  q u a l i t y o f s c h o o l t o be important, respectively,  were migrants  42.2% and 38.6%,  i n t o Lord K i t c h e n e r ,  w h i l e 37.5% were f a m i l i e s which had moved i n t o the Lord Roberts  by  i n t o Lord K i t c h e n e r , but o n l y by 39.3% o f  those who moved i n t o L o r d Roberts.  respondents  area.  area f o r both  variables.  78  There was  only one  locational  variable  ( a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o shopping) f o r which  migrants  i n t o the d i f f e r e n t s c h o o l areas responded i n a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t manner, important Roberts 64.1%  i t was  most  f o r f a m i l i e s which had moved i n t o the  area, beine d e p i c t e d by 82.0%  o f migrants  did likewise. as nearness  o f them.  Lord Only  i n t o the Lord K i t c h e n e r area  Other l o c a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s ,  t o job and r e c r e a t i o n a l  c o n s i d e r e d important  such  facilities,  were  by f a m i l i e s moving i n t o a l l  t h r e e s c h o o l areas, but t h e r e was  little  variation  i n the p r o p o r t i o n s between s c h o o l a r e a s . Although  there has been s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n i n  the importance a t t a c h e d t o r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s between s c h o o l areas, c o n s i d e r a b l e importance was  attached  t o most r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s i n a l l the s c h o o l a r e a s . Table 12 d e l i n e a t e s r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s s p e c i f i e d as important  by more than 50% o f the  in-migrants,  and the p r o p o r t i o n o f f a m i l i e s i n each s c h o o l a r e a n o t i n g them t o be  important.  79 Table 12 Residential Features Considered Important by More Than 50% of Families Migrating into School Areas Characterized by Different Migration Streams School Areas  Feature  Lord Roberts  Being near to job Being near to snooping Being near to recreational facilities.... Being near to schools Size of home.... Quality of home Quality of school  Proportion of Families Attaching . Importance to the Feature 70.5% 82.0% 75»4% 83.6% 50.8% 57.4% 54.1%  Lord Tennyson  Being near to job 64.5% Being near to recreational facilities 54.8?b Being near to schools 64.5% Size of home 71.0% Quality of home 64.5% Cost or rent of home 67.7% Design or layout of home.... 51.6% Type of people i n neighborhood 54.8% Quality of school 67.7%  Lord Kitchener  Being near to job Being near to shopping Being near to recreational facilities Being near to schools Size of home Quality of home Cost or rent Design or layout Status of neighborhood Type of people i n neighborhood Quality of school  69.2% 64.1% 71.8% 84.6% 82.1% 87.2% 87.2% 66.7% 69.2% 66.7% 87.2%  SOURCE: Crosstabulation of question 23 (factors important i n the choice of a heme) with question 2 (school areas into which f a m i l i e s had transferred) of the questionnaire  80  B.  Hypothesis The  R e l a t e d t o Reasons f o r O u t - M i g r a t i o n  expectation that r e s i d e n t i a l features  would c o n t r i b u t e t o the o u t - m i g r a t i o n o f f a m i l i e s from c i t y s c h o o l areas t o o t h e r p a r t s o f the c i t y was s t a t e d i n hypothesis f o u r .  In a d d i t i o n , t h i s  hypothesis  a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s would be s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important  i n s c h o o l areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d  by f a m i l i e s moving t o o t h e r c i t y s c h o o l a r e a s . T h i s h y p o t h e s i s was t e s t e d by c r o s s t a b u l a t i n g q u e s t i o n 10,  i n d i c a t i n g the area from which the household had  t r a n s f e r r e d , w i t h q u e s t i o n 18 and 19, d e s c r i b i n g the reasons  f o r movement out o f t h e p r e v i o u s r e s i d e n c e .  I t was expected  t h a t more than 50% o f t h e f a m i l i e s  which migrated from the t h r e e s c h o o l areas would i n d i c a t e some f e a t u r e s o f the r e s i d e n c e t o have been more important i t was expected  than o t h e r s .  In p a r t i c u l a r ,  t h a t f a m i l i e s m i g r a t i n g from the  L o r d Tennyson area would a t t a c h s i g n i f i c a n t l y more importance t o r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s than  families  moving from the other s c h o o l a r e a s , as t h i s s c h o o l area was c h a r a r a c t e r i z e d by a net o u t - m i g r a t i o n t o o t h e r s c h o o l areas i n the c i t y . There was l i t t l e  support f o r the h y p o t h e s i s .  o n l y two v a r i a b l e s c o n s i d e r e d important 50% o f t h e respondents  The  by more than  from any s c h o o l area were s i z e  o f home and the d e s i r e t o l i v e i n a n i c e r home and/or  81  neighborhood, by  ^he  55.6$, 44.8%,  former was  and  55.6%  noted as important  o f the respondents which  moved from Lord Roberts, Lord Tennyson, and Lord Kitchener, r e s p e c t i v e l y .  The d e s i r e t o l i v e i n a  n i c e r home and/or neighborhood  62.1%,  and  50.0%  was  s p e c i f i e d by  48.1%,  o f the f a m i l i e s from Lord Roberts,  Lord Tennyson, and Lord K i t c h e n e r , r e s p e c t i v e l y . "Too much t r a f f i c " was was  the o n l y v a r i a b l e which  s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t a t the .05 l e v e l .  Of  those c o n s i d e r i n g t h i s t o be an important reason f o r o u t - m i g r a t i o n , 52.0% came from the Lord Tennyson area which c o n t r i b u t e d 39.2% o f the respondents.  Of the  f a m i l i e s movine out o f t h i s a r e a , 44.8% noted i t t o be important, w h i l e 37.0% and 11.1% o f the f a m i l i e s moving from Lord Roberts and Lord K i t c h e n e r , r e s p e c t i v e l y , s p e c i f i e d i t t o be  important.  0  IV.  An Examination of Other S i g n i f i c a n t D i f f e r e n c e s Among M i g r a t i o n Streams a n d Among S c h o o l A r e a s Demographic, socio-economic, and housing v a r i a b l e s  p l u s areas c o n s i d e r e d i n the c h o i c e of a r e s i d e n c e and reasons f o r c o n s i d e r i n g the areas were examined t o determine  the e x i s t e n c e of s t a t i s t i c a l l y  d i f f e r e n c e s between the m i g r a t i o n streams  significant (families  from d i f f e r e n t o r i g i n s moving i n t o c i t y s c h o o l areas)  82  and between the s c h o o l a r e a s .  I n the case o f the  areas c o n s i d e r e d i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e and the reasons f o r c o n s i d e r i n g the areas, the v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e responses were too v a r i e d t o permit any statistically  s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s t o emerge.  were t h e r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y  significant  Neither  socio-economic  d i f f e r e n c e s among the d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams. However, among the s c h o o l areas t h e r e were some statistically  s i g n i f i c a n t demographic and  differences.  F o r both the s c h o o l areas and the  m i g r a t i o n streams,  d i f f e r e n c e s i n housing type and  tenure were s t a t i s t i c a l l y Ao  socio-economic  significant.  Demographic V a r i a b l e s V a r i a b l e s d e s c r i b i n g the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the  f a m i l y which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y  s i g n i f i c a n t a t the  .05 l e v e l were type o f f a m i l y , s i n g l e versus two-parent f a m i l i e s ; age o f o l d e s t c h i l d ; and the c o m p o s i t i o n o f the f a m i l y , d e s c r i b e d i n terms o f the ages o f the children. V.hile most f a m i l i e s i n the t h r e e s c h o o l areas i n c l u d e d two p a r e n t s , a s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r percentage of  s i n g l e - p a r e n t f a m i l i e s moved i n t o the Lord  area.  Roberts  Of the s i n g l e - p a r e n t f a m i l i e s , 63.4% had moved  i n t o the Lord Roberts a r e a , although f a m i l i e s moving  83  i n t o t h i s area c o n s t i t u t e d respondents  only 4 7 . 4 % of the t o t a l  t o the q u e s t i o n .  Of a l l the  moving i n t o the Lord Roberts single-parent  families  area, 3 6 . 5 % were  families.  The number of c h i l d r e n  i n the f a m i l y  was  s i g n i f i c a n t l y s m a l l e r f o r the Lord Roberts and  l a r g e r f o r the Lord K i t c h e n e r a r e a .  transferring  i n t o the Lord Roberts  o n e - c h i l d f a m i l i e s ; and,  or more.  Of  families  area, 6 0 . 3 % were  of those m i g r a t i n g i n t o  Lord K i t c h e n e r area, 5 1 . 3 % were f a m i l i e s children  area  the  with t h r e e  Of those moving i n t o the  Lord  Tennyson area, the g r e a t e s t p r o p o r t i o n were f a m i l i e s with two  children  (38.7%).  I n r e g a r d t o the age was  o f the o l d e s t  a s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t percentage  w i t h the o l d e s t Roberts  area  c h i l d of elementary  age  c h i l d , there of  families  i n the  Lord  - 8 7 . 3 % of the f a m i l i e s moving i n t o  area.  The  g r e a t e s t percentage  oldest  c h i l d i n secondary  of f a m i l i e s with  school existed  the  the  i n the Lord  Tennyson area, where 4 5 . 2 % o f i n - m i g r a t i n g f a m i l i e s had a c h i l d i n t h i s  category.  S i m i l a r l y , i n terms of the ages of c h i l d r e n i n the f a m i l y , Lord Tennyson had the g r e a t e s t p r o p o r t i o n of f a m i l i e s with some c h i l d r e n  i n the secondary  grades.  84  The  g r e a t e s t percentage  o f f a m i l i e s moving i n t o  Lord Tennyson and Lord Roberts children  -48.4$  and  68.3%,  had  just  both  elementary  respectively.  The  school  a r e a c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the g r e a t e s t p r o p o r t i o n o f i n m i g r a t i n g f a m i l i e s w i t h some p r e - s c h o o l age was  Lord K i t c h e n e r , with  38.5$  children  of such f a m i l i e s .  the same p r o p o r t i o n were f a m i l i e s w i t h o n l y children B.  Almost  elementary  (35.9$).  Socio-Economic V a r i a b l e s Statistically  significant  socio-economic  e x i s t i n g among the s c h o o l areas concerned c a t e g o r i e s and income l e v e l s . Lord K i t c h e n e r area tended  occupation  The migrants  into  t o be managers i n l a r g e  o p e r a t i o n s and p r o f e s s i o n a l s  (51.2$).  Only  respectively,were i n t h i s category.  Lord Tennyson and  Roberts,  areas,  In both  of  s c h o o l areas, c l e r i c a l workers  and craftsmen were almost  comprised  and  3 3 . 3 $  1 9 . 6 $ i n the Lord Tennyson and Lord Roberts  t h e l a t t e r two  differences  3 4 o 4 %  e q u a l l y represented - 3 3 . 3 % i n  i n the Lord Roberts  area.  They  the major o c c u p a t i o n a l group f o r Lord and the second major one f o r Lord Tennyson.  Lord K i t c h e n e r was  a l s o c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the  -  l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of i n - m i g r a t i n g f a m i l i e s with  high  incomes.  57.8%  had  Of the f a m i l i e s moving i n t o t h i s area,  incomes of  $12,000  per annum or more.  This  8  c o n t r a s t e d w i t h 24.7% and 19.3%  f o r the Lord Tennyson a r e a ,  f o r the L o r d Roberts  area.  The g r e a t e s t  p r o p o r t i o n of f a m i l i e s w i t h incomes o f l e s s $6000 per annum h»d area  (71.0%).  5  moved i n t o the Lord  S i m i l a r l y , the g r e a t e s t  than  Roberts percentage  w i t h incomes between $6000 and $8999 per annum were migrants Co-  i n t o the Lord Tennyson area  (41.2%).  Housing V a r i a b l e s The housing v a r i a b l e s which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y  s i g n i f i c a n t were type and tenure o f present  and  p r e v i o u s home, and changes i n both the s i z e and c o s t o f housing.  F a m i l i e s from o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland  had migrated p r i m a r i l y i n t o apartments (71.5%).  Of  these f a m i l i e s , t h r e e - q u a r t e r s were i n apartment b l o c k s o f more than f o u r s t o r i e s .  Over o n e - h a l f o f  the f a m i l i e s coming from the Lower Mainland  (56.5%)  moved i n t o converted s u i t e s and apartments,  the  l a t t e r being mainly i n b u i l d i n g s o f f o u r s t o r i e s or less.  Of f a m i l i e s moving from o t h e r c i t y  areas,  70% moved i n t o s i n g l e a t t a c h e d or detached  homes,  or town houses. There were s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s among the s c h o o l areas r e g a r d i n g the type o f d w e l l i n g u n i t i n t o which f a m i l i e s had moved.  The g r e a t e s t p r o p o r t i o n  86  of migrants  i n t o the Lord Roberts  area moved i n t o  apartments i n b u i l d i n g s of more than f o u r s t o r i e s (65.6$),  w h i l e i n the Lord Tennyson area,  they  moved i n t o apartments i n b u i l d i n g s of f o u r s t o r i e s and  less  (32„3%).  S i n g l e detached  by 94.6$ o f migrants  u n i t s were chosen  i n t o the Lord K i t c h e n e r a r e a .  Other .housing types which were important Lord Tennyson area were s i n g l e a t t a c h e d s i n g l e detached  i n the (22.6$) and  (22.6$) u n i t s .  There were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y  significant differences  among the types of homes from which f a m i l i e s o f v a r i o u s o r i g i n s had moved as approximately (61$)  the same p r o p o r t i o n  from each area moved from what would be  c o n s i d e r e d s u i t a b l e f a m i l y accommodation - s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g u n i t s ( s i n g l e detached), ( s i n g l e a t t a c h e d ) , and town houses.  duplexes  However, f o r  f a m i l i e s moving i n t o the three s c h o o l areas, were s t a t i s t i c a l l y  there  s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between  the s c h o o l areas i n the type of d w e l l i n g u n i t from which the f a m i l y had moved.  A s i g n i f i c a n t percentage  of .  f a m i l i e s which moved i n t o Lord K i t c h e n e r had p r e v i o u s l y occupied  " s u i t a b l e f a m i l y accommodation"  In c o n t r a s t , o n l y 54.1% L o r d Roberts  and  and  51.6%  (89.5%).  of migrants  Lord Tennyson, r e s p e c t i v e l y ,  moved from t h i s type of  housing.  into had  87  F o r f a m i l i e s moving out o f the s c h o o l areas, differences  i n the type o f housing  moved were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y  i n t o which they  s i g n i f i c a n t , as the  m a j o r i t y from a l l s c h o o l areas moved i n t o family dwelling units,  duplexes,  single  o r town houses.  Tenure o f present home was s t a t i s t i c a l l y for  the t h r e e s c h o o l a r e a s .  I n the Lord  area, 87.2% o f the f a m i l i e s moved i n t o units.  and  areas,  Kitchener  self-owned  I n the other s c h o o l areas, however, t h *  m a j o r i t y o f migrants 98.4%  significant  moved i n t o r e n t a l  71.0% i n the Lord Roberts  units,  and Lord Tennyson  respectively.  Tenure o f present d w e l l i n g u n i t was a l s o statistically streams.  s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n  The m a j o r i t y o f f a m i l i e s moving w i t h i n the  city transferred  t o self-owned  of those moving i n t o c i t y areas  u n i t s , w h i l e the m a j o r i t y from the Lower  Mainland  (73.9%) and from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland chose r e n t a l  (86.0%)  units.  Tenure o f present d w e l l i n g u n i t was a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t f o r f a m i l i e s moving out o f the school areas.  statistically  three  Most o f the f a m i l i e s from the Lord  area moved i n t o , r e n t a l u n i t s  Roberts  (66.7%), w h i l e the  m a j o r i t y o f f a m i l i e s from Lord Tennyson (51.7%) and Lord Kitchener  (77.8%) moved i n t o self-owned  units.  88  There were s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n l i v i n g school areas.  d i f f e r e n c e s i n both  scace and c o s t o f housing among  A significant  p r o p o r t i o n of  families  which moved i n t o Lord K i t c h e n e r area i n c r e a s e d t h e i r living  ( 6 6 . 7 % ) and t h e i r housing c o s t s ( 7 6 . 3 % ) .  space  In c o n t r a s t , o n l y a few f a m i l i e s  moving i n t o  space  -(9.8%),  increased t h e i r  housing  L o r d Roberts area i n c r e a s e d t h e i r l i v i n g and l e s s than o n e - h a l f ( 4 8 . 2 % ) costs.  While  the  l e s s than o n e - h a l f o f the f a m i l i e s  moving (48.4%),  i n t o Lord Tennyson i n c r e a s e d t h e i r l i v i n g space  more than o n e - h a l f (61.3%) i n c r e a s e d t h e i r housing Changes i n both l i v i n g  space and c o s t s were  not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r f a m i l i e s o f the t h r e e s c h o o l a r e a s . was  statistically  i n the c i t y families  moving out  Only change i n l i v i n g  significant  m i g r a t i o n streams.  f o r the  F a m i l i e s moving from other areas  increased their l i v i n g  (57.1%).  space  (60.8%),  decreased  space  However, an almost e a u i v a l e n t p r o p o r t i o n  m a i n t a i n e d the amount which they had i n t h e i r previous residence  while  Of those from the Lower Mainland,  t h e g r e a t e s t percentage decreased t h e i r l i v i n g (39.1%).  space  different  from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland  t h e i r space  costs.  (34.8%).  89  CHAPTER V: DISCUSSION OF RESULTS I.  L i m i t a t i o n s of the Sample While s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n was  found among  f e a t u r e s important i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e by f a m i l i e s moving i n t o Vancouver C i t y s c h o o l areas from d i f f e r e n t areas of o r i g i n , these d i f f e r e n c e s  may  be s p e c i f i c t o the sample, and not r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of  the c i t y as a w h o l e Two  0  l o c a t i o n a l f e a t u r e s , nearness t o shopping  recreational f a c i l i t i e s , for  were s i g n i f i c a n t l y  f a m i l i e s moving from areas o u t s i d e the  Mainland i n t o Vancouver C i t y .  and  important Lower  Most of these f a m i l i e s ,  however, moved i n t o the Lord Roberts a r e a , w i t h i n w a l k i n g d i s t a n c e o f most s e r v i c e s . shopping might  Nearness  to  not, f o r example, have been s i g n i f i c a n t l y  more important f o r these in-mie-rants than migrants from other areas, were the former t o move t o o t h e r p a r t s of  the  city.  While l o c a t i o n t o job was  c o n s i d e r e d important  i n the c h o i c e of a r e s i d e n c e by a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of  migrants from o u t s i d e the c i t y than by  migrants, i t was  intra-city  a l s o s p e c i f i e d t o be important  more than 50% o f the l a t t e r group.  The  by  differences  90  among the migrant groups were not significant o  statistically-  T h i s c o u l d have been p a r t l y a f u n c t i o n  o f the l o c a t i o n of the Lord K i t c h e n e r i n t o which a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f the migrants were t r a n s f e r r i n g . The  school  area  intra-city  s c h o o l area i s l o c a t e d  i n p r o x i m i t y to the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h where a c o n s i d e r a b l e p r o p o r t i o n of the  Columbia,  in-migrating  household heads were employed. Dwelling unit features  ( s i z e , c o s t , and  o f home) were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important moving w i t h i n Vancouver C i t y than f o r other streams, although areas  more than 50$  o u t s i d e the c i t y a t t a c h e d  unit features.  design  for families migration  o f the f a m i l i e s from importance t o d w e l l i n g  I t i s t h e r e f o r e p o s s i b l e , f o r example,  t h a t such f a m i l i e s moving i n t o s e c t i o n s o f the  city  other than the Lord Roberts s c h o o l area, l o c a t e d near downtown, would a t t a c h as much importance to d w e l l i n g u n i t f e a t u r e s as i n t r a - c i t y Similarly, significant and  tenure  of housing  migrants. d i f f e r e n c e s i n the  type  i n t o which f a m i l i e s moved, as  w e l l as the change i n l i v i n g space which they  experienced  as a r e s u l t of the move, c o u l d have been p a r t l y due the nature  o f the sample.  For example,  to  rented  apartments i n b u i l d i n g s o f more than f o u r s t o r i e s  and  a decrease i n l i v i n g space were r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y  91  to  f a m i l i e s moving i n t o c i t y areas from p l a c e s o u t s i d e  the Lower Mainland.  However, i n the sample,  these  i n - m i g r a n t s moved mostly i n t o the Lord Roberts  area,  c o n t a i n i n g most of the r e n t a l accommodation i n the form of h i g h - r i s e b u i l d i n e s i n Vancouver C i t y . h o u s i n g p a t t e r n i s not repeated  This  i n o t h e r p a r t s o f the  city. While the r e s u l t s o f the survey cannot n e c e s s a r i l y be g e n e r a l i z e d completely  to the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t  a whole, they p o i n t t o the f a c t o r s which should c o n s i d e r e d i n a s i m i l a r examination  as be  of o t h e r p a r t s  of the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t . II.  Comparison o f R e s u l t s o f Survey f o r M i g r a t i o n Streams with R e s u l t s f o r School Areas S i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the f e a t u r e s which  were c o n s i d e r e d important  i n the c h o i c e of a r e s i d e n c e  were f o r the most p a r t r e f l e c t e d i n the  residential  f e a t u r e s which were s i g n i f i c a n t l y important  i n school  areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by d i f f e r e n t m i g r a t i o n streams. D w e l l i n g u n i t f e a t u r e s ( s i z e , c o s t , and for  example, were important  design),  f o r f a m i l i e s moving w i t h i n  the c i t y and f o r the Lord K i t c h e n e r area, c h a r a c t e r i z e d by m i g r a t i o n from other areas i n the L o c a t i o n t o shopping of  was  a home f o r both migrants  city.  important  i n the  choice  from areas o u t s i d e the  92  Lower Mainland,  and f o r the Lord Roberts  area,  c h a r a c t e r i z e d by t h i s m i g r a t i o n stream. Self-owned s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g u n i t s and an i n c r e a s e i n l i v i n g space were s t a t i s t i c a l l y t o f a m i l i e s who moved i n t o c i t y other c i t y  important  s c h o o l areas from  areas and i n t o the Lord K i t c h e n e r a r e a .  Rented apartments i n b u i l d i n g s o f more f o u r s t o r i e s and a decrease  i n l i v i n g space were  s i g n i f i c a n t f o r f a m i l i e s who moved from o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland  than  areas  and i n t o the Lord  Roberts  area. S c h o o l areas, however, are a f f e c t e d by more than one m i g r a t i o n stream, and t h i s has r e s u l t e d i n s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s among s c h o o l areas not e x i s t i n g among the m i g r a t i o n streams c h a r a c t e r i z i n g the s c h o o l areas.  I n other cases, d i f f e r e n c e s which were  statistically  s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the m i g r a t i o n streams were not s i g n i f i c a n t for  the s c h o o l areas which they c h a r a c t e r i z e d . Neighborhood f e a t u r e s i n the c h o i c e o f a r e s i d e n c e ,  for  example, were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r  the m i g r a t i o n streams, but they were f o r the s c h o o l areas.  S t a t u s o f neighborhood and q u a l i t y o f s c h o o l s  were s i g n i f i c a n t l y area.  important  f o r the Lord K i t c h e n e r  The type o f d w e l l i n g u n i t out o f which f a m i l i e s  had moved was not s t a t i s t i c a l l y  s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the  m i g r a t i o n streams, but W a s . s i g n i f i c a n t l y important  93  f o r the Lord K i t c h e n e r a r e a . o f the f a m i l i e s who  Three-quarters  moved i n t o t h i s s c h o o l area moved  out of s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g u n i t s . socio-economic  Significant  and demographic d i f f e r e n c e s e x i s t e d  f o r the s c h o o l areas, but not f o r the m i g r a t i o n streams which c h a r a c t e r i z e d them.  For example,  s i n g l e - p a r e n t and o n e - c h i l d f a m i l i e s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y important  f o r the Lord Roberts  area, and f a m i l i e s  of  t h r e e c h i l d r e n and more f o r the Lord K i t c h e n e r a r e a . The  s c h o o l a r e a w i t h the g r e a t e s t p r o p o r t i o n o f  secondary  s c h o o l age  t h a t with the c h i l d r e n was  c h i l d r e n was  Lord Tennyson,  g r e a t e s t percentage Lord K i t c h e n e r .  of pre-school  Higher  age  income f a m i l i e s  were s i g n i f i c a n t i n the L o r d K i t c h e n e r a r e a lower  and  income f a m i l i e s i n the Lord Roberts  and  area.  S i m i l a r l y , p r o f e s s i o n a l s and managers of l a r g e - s c a l e o p e r a t i o n s c h a r a c t e r i z e d Lord K i t c h e n e r , w h i l e  clerical  workers and craftsmen were the most dominant o c c u o a t i o n a l group i n the Lord Roberts  area.  There were fewer d i f f e r e n c e s which were s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the m i g r a t i o n streams but not f o r the areas which they c h a r a c t e r i z e d . f a c i l i t i e s was  important  f o r migrants  o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland, area.  I n c r e a s e s and  f a m i l i e s who  Nearness from  school to r e c r e a t i o n a l areas  but not f o r the Lord  decreases  Roberts  i n l i v i n g space c h a r a c t e r i z e d  moved w i t h i n the c i t y and i n t o the  city  94  from p l a c e s o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland, r e s p e c t i v e l y . Changes i n l i v i n e space, however, were not s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the s c h o o l  statistically  areas.  For the sample as a whole, t h e r e were s e v e r a l s i g n i f i c a n t reasons f o r the movement o f f a m i l i e s from one  a r e a i n the c i t y t o another: reasons r e l a t e d  t o the d w e l l i n g u n i t ("home too -run down", "home t o o l a r g e or s m a l l " , " d i d not l i k e design of home", " o f f e r r e d a good p r i c e f o r home," " l a n d l o r d s o l d home"); and reasons r e l a t e d to the neighborhood too run down", "too much t r a f f i c " ) . terms o f the o u t - m i g r a t i o n  ("neighborhood  However, i n  of f a m i l i e s from the  sampled s c h o o l areas to other p a r t s of the  three  metropolitan  area, the only s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e "too much t r a f f i c " .  I t was  most important  i n the  s c h o o l area c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a net o u t - m i g r a t i o n other p a r t s o f the The  preceding  school area.  r e s u l t s demonstrate the  necessity the  stream which c h a r a c t e r i z e s the  Such f a c t o r s do suggest those  which  should be i n v e s t i g a t e d , but an a n a l y s i s on a s c h o o l area b a s i s y i e l d s more d e t a i l and different  to  city.  o f a n a l y z i n g more than the f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g dominant m i g r a t i o n  was  information.  slightly  95  CHAPTER V I : IMPLICATIONS FOR PLANNING  Changes i n m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s have hampered the a c c u r a t e p r e d i c t i o n o f elementary  student  p o p u l a t i o n s and have c o n t r i b u t e d t o an imbalance i n demand f o r e x i s t i n g e d u c a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s  and t o  an i n c r e a s e i n the per p u p i l c o s t o f e d u c a t i o n . r e s u l t s o f the present  study suggest  may be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o a technique of  student  than those  enrollments  The  f a c t o r s which f o r the p r e d i c t i o n  t o make i t more comprehensive  g e n e r a l l y adopted by e d u c a t i o n a l  In a d d i t i o n , the r e s u l t s suggest  planners.  the means by which  e d u c a t i o n a l p l a n n e r s may shape m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s , c o n t r o l l i n g t o some extent the m i g r a t i o n o f students from s c h o o l areas and the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t .  Making  an attempt t o i n f l u e n c e the m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s which a f f e c t student p o p u l a t i o n s r e p r e s e n t s a marked change from the t r a d i t i o n a l approach o f e d u c a t i o n a l The  b a s i c f u n c t i o n o f s c h o o l boards has  the necessary student  planners.  been t o provide  f a c i l i t i e s t o accommodate changes i n  population l e v e l s  ( P u b l i c Schools  Act, Sections  158, 177). I.  The P r e d i c t i o n o f Student The  Enrollments  i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f those  f a c t o r s suggested  the study i n t o a p r o j e c t i o n o f elementary s c h o o l  by enrollments  96  would e n t a i l not only a comprehensive approach t o the p r e d i c t i o n process, but would i n v o l v e c o o p e r a t i o n  with  other governmental a g e n c i e s . The movement o f f a m i l i e s from the suburban areas i n t o Vancouver C i t y i s a m i g r a t i o n stream which does not a f f e c t "the student s p e c i f i c s c h o o l areas  p o p u l a t i o n s o f e i t h e r the or the e n t i r e c i t y s c h o o l  as much as other m i g r a t i o n streams do. it  district  Nevertheless  does c o u n t e r a c t the flow from the c i t y t o the  suburbs and i s s u s c e D t i b l e to d r a s t i c  change.  For example, moving c l o s e r t o work, which s i g n i f i c a n t l y important  was  f o r t h i s m i g r a t i o n stream,  c o u l d p o s s i b l y cease t o be r e l e v a n t i f r a p i d t r a n s i t were developed.  I t i s t h e r e f o r e necessary  that  e d u c a t i o n a l p l a n n e r s be aware o f p l a n s f o r major t r a n s p o r t a t i o n developments and t h e i r impacts on r e s i d e n t i a l developments.  This e n t a i l s  communication  with the Greater Vancouver R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t ,  which  would be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r i n i t i a t i n g major t r a n s p o r t a t i o n developments i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver. In p r o j e c t i n g the number o f f a m i l i e s moving from a r e a s o u t s i d e M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver i n t o the Vancouver School D i s t r i c t ,  planners o f s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s  should  c o n s i d e r the employment s i t u a t i o n i n M e t r o p o l i t a n  97  Vancouver r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r c e n t r e s i n Canada. "Change o f j o b " was one o f the main reasons f o r m i g r a t i o n from areas o u t s i d e M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver i n t o Vancouver C i t y . important  "Other r e a s o n s " was an a d d i t i o n a l ,  v a r i a b l e t o which t h i s m i g r a t i o n  responded i n the q u e s t i o n n a i r e .  stream  These i n c l u d e d p o l i t i c a l  and c l i m a t i c c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , and the d e s i r e t o l i v e in a different cultural setting.  Some immigrants from  o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , f o r example, Tanzania, moved f o r p o l i t i c a l reasons, w h i l e Vancouver's m i l d c l i m a t e i n f l u e n c e d i n - m i g r a n t s from other p a r t s o f Canada. I t i s t h e r e f o r e necessary t o c o n s i d e r the c l i m a t i c and  c u l t u r a l a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver,  r e l a t i v e t o other areas i n Canada, and account  Canadian immigration  t o take  into  policy.  C a l i b r a t i o n o f the employment s i t u a t i o n i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r areas, and e s t i m a t i o n o f the a d d i t i o n a l e f f e c t which c l i m a t i c and c u l t u r a l c o n d i t i o n s have on i n - m i g r a t i o n would be facilitated  i f the Vancouver School Board P l a n n i n g  Department worked i n c o o p e r a t i o n with the l o c a l r e s e a r c h branch  o f the Manpower and Immigration  Department.  l a t t e r has monthly r e c o r d s o f the unemployment  The  situation  i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver and other areas i n Canada. In a d d i t i o n , they are attempting  t o develop  a model t o  98  p r e d i c t the demand f o r l a b o r i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver. M i g r a t i o n from other p a r t s o f Canada and o t h e r c o u n t r i e s are e s s e n t i a l components o f t h e i r model. An understanding  o f the f a c t o r s which a f f e c t the  movement o f households i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver from o u t s i d e areas w i l l a s s i s t  i n the p r o j e c t i o n o f  student e n r o l l m e n t s , but w i l l not p r o v i d e a complete understanding  of the migration process.  I t w i l l not  i n d i c a t e the extent t o which the i n - m i p r a n t s  will  move i n t o Vancouver C i t y as opposed t o the suburban areas o f M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, nor w i l l i t d e p i c t t h e extent t o which these i n - m i g r a n t s w i l l move i n t o s p e c i f i c areas i n Vancouver C i t y . The  f a c t o r s which a f f e c t the m i g r a t i o n o f f a m i l i e s  from areas o u t s i d e M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver i n t o Vancouver C i t y are r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s .  A l i m i t e d supply o f  t h e f e a t u r e s which a r e important stream  to t h i s migration  i n c e r t a i n areas o f the c i t y  and i n the s c h o o l  district  r e l a t i v e t o suburban areas would cause these  migrants  t o s e t t l e i n other p a r t s o f t h e c i t y  the suburban areas, The  and  respectively.  r e s i d e n t i a l features considered  by more than 50 percent o f t h e respondents  important from areas  o u t s i d e M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver were a c c e s s i b i l i t y t o job  and s e r v i c e s (shopping,  r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s and  99  s c h o o l s ) ; housing neighborhood  ( s i z e , q u a l i t y , and c o s t ) ;  (type of people  A c c e s s i b i l i t y to shopping  and q u a l i t y o f s c h o o l ) .  and r e c r e a t i o n a l  were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important i n - m i g r a n t s than f o r o t h e r groups. have been p a r t l y due  and  facilities  f o r t h i s group o f However, t h i s  t o the nature o f the  may-  sample.  S i m i l a r l y , rented apartments i n h i g h - r i s e b u i l d i n g s , which were the d w e l l i n g u n i t type and tenure  chosen  by t h i s group, may  sample.  have been s p e c i f i c to the  N e v e r t h e l e s s , the r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s which were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more important  f o r t h i s group than f o r  other groups, i n a d d i t i o n t o those noted t o be important  by a m a j o r i t y of these i n - m i g r a n t s , s h o u l d  be c o n s i d e r e d i n the p r e d i c t i o n o f enrollments i n s c h o o l areas other than those  sampled.  I n order t o use these r e s i d e n t i a l f e a t u r e s as a means o f p r e d i c t i n g changes i n m i g r a t i o n p l a n n e r s must q u a n t i f y them. home was  For example, cost o f  noted to be important  r e s i d e n c e by 72.2%  levels,  i n the c h o i c e of a  of the f a m i l i e s moving i n t o Vancouver  C i t y from p l a c e s o u t s i d e M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver.  In  order t o use t h i s i n a p r e d i c t i o n o f the movement of these f a m i l i e s i n t o s p e c i f i c  s c h o o l areas i n Vancouver  C i t y and i n t o the e n t i r e s c h o o l d i s t r i c t ,  planners  100  must know the c o s t of housing o f the c i t y ,  i n the s p e c i f i c  areas  and i n the c i t y r e l a t i v e t o other p a r t s  o f M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver. It i s  not e s s e n t i a l t h a t the Vancouver  Board P l a n n i n g Department q u a n t i f y a l l the f e a t u r e s themselves. o f housing planning  School  residential  Data on type, tenure, and  quality  e x i s t at Vancouver C i t y H a l l , i n both  the  department and the assessment department.  S i m i l a r i n f o r m a t i o n f o r the other m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver c o u l d p o s s i b l y be o b t a i n e d from other m u n i c i p a l p l a n n i n g departments and from the G r e a t e r Vancouver R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t . self-owned  d w e l l i n g u n i t s may  The  costs of  be o b t a i n e d from the  Greater Vancouver Real E s t a t e Board, and housing and completions  from the l o c a l branch  and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n .  starts  o f C e n t r a l Mortgage  However, other i n f o r m a t i o n ,  such as the r e n t s of apartments and type o f  people  i n a neighborhood, i s not r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e .  Obtaining  and q u a n t i f y i n g t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n w i l l r e q u i r e c o o p e r a t i o n between the Vancouver School Board P l a n n i n g Department and other p l a n n i n g  agencies.  A q u a n t i f i c a t i o n of housing and f a c t o r s would a l s o be necessary  neighborhood  i n order t o p r e d i c t ^  the movement o f f a m i l i e s w i t h i n the c i t y and from the c i t y t o the suburban a r e a s .  Dwelling unit  and  101  neighborhood f e a t u r e s were more important f o r the i n t r a - c i t y migrants than they were f o r f a m i l i e s moving from o u t s i d e i n t o Vancouver  City.  Size,  c o n d i t i o n , and q u a l i t y o f home, and neighborhood c o n d i t i o n s , such as e x c e s s i v e t r a f f i c and run-down neighborhoods, were s i g n i f i c a n t l y important reasons f o r moving from one r e s i d e n c e t o another w i t h i n Vancouver  City.  I n the c h o i c e o f a d i f f e r e n t  residence,  the i n t r a - c i t y migrants and f a m i l i e s moving from the c i t y t o the suburban areas a t t a c h e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y more importance t o s i z e , c o s t , and d e s i g n o f home than d i d other m i g r a n t s .  The q u a n i f i c a t i o n o f these  f a c t o r s f o r the purpose o f p r e d i c t i n g e n r o l l m e n t s would be f a c i l i t a t e d  i f the s c h o o l p l a n n i n g department  worked i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h the government agencies p r e v i o u s l y mentioned: departments,  C i t y H a l l assessment  and p l a n n i n g  o t h e r rrlunicipal p l a n n i n g departments, the  G r e a t e r Vancouver  R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t , and C e n t r a l  Mortgage and Housing C o r p o r a t i o n . The q u a n t i f i c a t i o n o f housing and neighborhood f a c t o r s f o r t h e purposes o f p r e d i c t i n g student e n r o l l m e n t s s h o u l d be done on a s c h o o l a r e a b a s i s and then aggregated f o r the s c h o o l d i s t r i c t  as a whole. -  The r e s i d e n t i a l and neighborhood f a c t o r s which were statistically  s i g n i f i c a n t f o r the m i g r a t i o n streams d i d  not always correspond t o those which were s i g n i f i c a n t  102  f o r the s c h o o l areas which they c h a r a c t e r i z e d . converse was  always t r u e .  In a d d i t i o n , the  The  study  d e p i c t e d s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s among the ages s i z e s of f a m i l i e s moving i n t o the s p e c i f i c areas.  school  Both types o f demographic data are of value  in predicting II.  and  enrollments.  The  Shaping of M i g r a t i o n Streams  Any  attempt t o i n f l u e n c e the m i g r a t i o n streams  a f f e c t i n g elementary  student enrollments would a l s o  n e c e s s i t a t e c o o p e r a t i o n with other governmental p l a n n i n g departments because l o c a l s c h o o l boards do not have the delegated power t o i n t r o d u c e the programs and p o l i c i e s . be  " i n f o r m a l " and  o f the former,  necessary  This cooperation could e i t h e r  " u n o f f i c i a l " or " f o r m a l " .  In the  case  the s c h o o l board would recommend changes  t o the p a r t i c u l a r p l a n n i n g agency i n v o l v e d .  In the  latter,  the s c h o o l board would have a vote i n the d e c i s i o n t o implement p o l i c i e s and The  two  approaches  f o l l o w i n g example.  programs. can be demonstrated w i t h  the  Some o f the f a c t o r s which have  c o n t r i b u t e d t o the m i g r a t i o n of f a m i l i e s from some c i t y s c h o o l areas to other p a r t s o f the c i t y were those c h a r a c t e r i z i n g the d e c l i n e of neighborhoods as areas.  These were run-down homes and  residential  neighborhoods;  103  and t o o much t r a f f i c i n the neighborhoods.  Too  much t r a f f i c may r e s u l t from a number o f causes: a major a r t e r i a l road through a r e s i d e n t i a l area, a change i n housing  type, and/or commercial and i n d u s t r i a l  encroachment i n t o a r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a .  Run down  neighborhoods and homes are o f t e n a s s o c i a t e d with each other and with an e x c e s s i v e amount o f t r a f f i c . An " u n o f f i c i a l " approach t o the p r e v e n t i o n o f the d e c l i n e o f s c h o o l areas as r e s i d e n t i a l areas would i n v o l v e recommendations such as the f o l l o w i n g t o e i t h e r c i t y c o u n c i l or t o those  c i t y planning o f f i c i a l s  proposing  changes: t h a t major a r t e r i a l roads not be b u i l t through r e s i d e n t i a l areas, and t h a t zoning not be changed t o allow uses which i n c r e a s e the volume o f t r a f f i c i n school areas.  Similarly,  an  " u n o f f i c i a l " approach  used t o c o u n t e r a c t and change areas c h a r a c t e r i z e d by excessive t r a f f i c ,  and homes and neighborhoods which  are r u n down,would i n v o l v e recommendations t o govenmental a g e n c i e s . changes i n t r a f f i c city  For example, zoning changes and  r e g u l a t i o n s would be proposed t o  planning o f f i c i a l s  or aldermen, w h i l e  programs c o u l d be suggested  rehabilitation  t o C e n t r a l Mortgage and  Housing C o r p o r a t i o n . An " o f f i c i a l " approach t o shaping m i g r a t i o n would mean t h a t s c h o o l board  streams  representatives could  104  vote to  on zoning changes and other measures designed  implement p o l i c i e s and programs, or have  representation  . on the zoning board i n an  advisory capacity.  official  In order t o be a b l e to do so,  however, changes i n both the M u n i c i p a l Act and P u b l i c Schools Act are n e c e s s a r y . difficult  the  I t would be  t o convince the p r o v i n c i a l government of the  necessity for t h i s .  A documentation  o f the  effects  which m u n i c i p a l programs have on student e n r o l l m e n t s would be n e c e s s a r y .  T h i s would a l s o be  necessary  i n order to p o r t r a y t o c i t y h a l l p l a n n i n g  officials  and aldermen the consequences of the measures which they i n t e n d t o adopt.  Otherwise  government a g e n c i e s , may  they, and  other  tend t o i g n o r e recommendations  made by the s c h o o l board.  III.  The A d a p t a t i o n of E d u c a t i o n a l Plans t o Meet the E f f e c t s of M i g r a t i o n I t i s not o n l y n e c e s s a r y t h a t the s c h o o l board  p r o v i d e evidence to convince m u n i c i p a l and  provincial  o f f i c i a l s of the consequences o f measures which they adopt.  I t i s a l s o e s s e n t i a l f o r s c h o o l boards  to  develop c l o s e communications w i t h these agencies i n order t h a t they understand the reasons f o r proposed" changes. may to  Measures of b e n e f i t t o the s c h o o l board  be d e t r i m e n t a l t o s e v e r a l groups o f people the c i t y as a whole.  or  In such a case, i t would be  105  u n r e a l i s t i c to expect  t h a t the s c h o o l board's  recommendations would be adopted.  However, an  awareness of the l i k e l i h o o d of such an would permit  e d u c a t i o n a l planners  plans accordingly.  to a d j u s t t h e i r  For example, i n areas which  are l i k e l y  to experience  classrooms  may  converted  occurrence  out-migration  of  be c r e a t e d such t h a t they can  e a s i l y f o r other uses.  i n the form o f classrooms  be  They c o u l d be  either decentralized i n a  number o f b u i l d i n g s , or i n a multi-purpose IV.  students,  building.  Summary The  p r e d i c t i o n of elementary s c h o o l  enrollments  and the i n f l u e n c i n g of m i g r a t i o n streams which a f f e c t student enrollments  n e c e s s i t a t e s a more v e r s a t i l e  approach t o p l a n n i n g e d u c a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s than has been done i n the past, and g r e a t e r w i t h other p l a n n i n g 'agencies. if  e d u c a t i o n a l planners  The  latter i s  are t o f a c i l i t a t e  p r e d i c t i o n of school enrollments or prevent  cooperation  and to  f a c t o r s which a f f e c t student  u n d e s i r a b l e ways.  important  the  counteract populations i n  At the same time i t p r o v i d e s  the  e d u c a t i o n a l planner w i t h the o p p o r t u n i t y to determine the p r o b a b i l i t y of implementation  of programs and  measures which are d e t r i m e n t a l to s c h o o l  planning  o b j e c t i v e s , but are of b e n e f i t to other groups w i t h i n  106  the c i t y .  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"Employment S t a t u s and R e t r o s p e c t i v e and P r o s p e c t i v e M i g r a t i o n i n the United S t a t e s " , Demography, 5, p. 79-85. M c l n n i s , M. 1969. " P r o v i n c i a l M i g r a t i o n and D i f f e r e n t i a l Economic Opportunity", i n M i g r a t i o n i n Canada, ed. L. 0. Stone, Canada: Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s . M i c h e l s o n , W. 1972. Environmental Choice: A D r a f t Report on the S o c i a l B a s i s of Family D e c i s i o n s on Housing Type and L o c a t i o n i n G r e a t e r Toronto, Canada: M i n i s t r y of Urban A f f a i r s . Nie, N., D. H. Bent, and C. H. H u l l . 1970. S t a t i s t i c a l Package For The S o c i a l Sciences,, New York: McGraw H i l l Book Company. Pape, S. W. 1959. Status and P r e s t i g e M o t i v a t i o n a l F a c t o r s i n R e s i d e n t i a l M o b i l i t y . Unpublished T h e s i s , The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. Province  o f B r i t i s h Columbia. 1970.  P u b l i c Schools  Act.  Rogers, A. 1968. M a t r i x A n a l y s i s of I n t e r r e g i o n a l P o p u l a t i o n Growth and D i s t r i b u t i o n . B e r k e l e y : U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a P r e s s . Rogers, T. W. 1968. " D i f f e r e n t i a l Net M i g r a t i o n P a t t e r n s i n the Standard M e t r o p o l i t a n S t a t i s t i c a l Areas of Southern United S t a t e s : 1960-60", I n t e r n a t i o n a l M i g r a t i o n , 6, p. 22-32. Ross, H. L. 1961-62. "Reasons f o r Moves t o and from a C e n t r a l C i t y area", S o c i a l Forces, 40, p. 2 6 1 - 2 6 3 . R o s s i , P. H. 1955. The Free P r e s s .  Why  F a m i l i e s Move. New  York:  Simmons, J . W. 1971. Net M i g r a t i o n W i t h i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Toronto. Toronto: Center For Urban and Community S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y of Toronto. Speare, A . , J r . 1970. "Home Ownership, L i f e C y c l e S t a t e , and R e s i d e n t i a l M o b i l i t y " , Demography, V o l . 7, No. 4, p. 449-458.  110  S p e n g l e r , J . J . 1 9 5 6 . '"Some Economic Aspects o f Immigration i n t o the Unitea S t a t e s " , i n Demographic A n a l y s i s , ed. J . J . Spengler and 0 . Dudley, I l l i n o i s : The Free Press, p. 2 7 7 - 2 9 6 . Stone, L. 0. 1 9 6 7 . Urban Development i n Canada. Canada: Dominion Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s , S t u r a t , F. C. 1 9 6 5 . Urban Land Use P l a n n i n g . I l l i n o i s : U n i v e r s i t y of I l l i n o i s Press. Thomas, B. 1 9 5 9 o " I n t e r n a t i o n a l M i g r a t i o n i n The Study o f P o p u l a t i o n : An Inventory and A p p r a i s a l , eds. P. Hauser and 0 . Duncan, Chicago: The U n i v e r s i t y o f Chicago. Vanderkamp, P. 1 9 7 1 " M i g r a t i o n Flows, T h e i r Determinants and the E f f e c t s o f Return M i g r a t i o n " , J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l Economy. 7 9 , 1 0 1 2 - 3 2 . Ward, D. 1 9 6 8 "The Emergence o f C e n t r a l Immigrant Ghettos i n American C i t i e s : 1 8 4 0 - 1 9 2 0 " , Annals, A s s o c i a t i o n o f American Geographers, 5 8 , 3 4 3 - 5 9 . 0  Weiss, S. F., K. B. Kenney, and P. C. S t e f f e n s . 1 9 6 6 . "Consumer P r e f e r e n c e s i n R e s i d e n t i a l L o c a t i o n : A P r e l i m i n a r y I n v e s t i g a t i o n o f the Home Purchase D e c i s i o n " , Research Reviews. North C a r o l i n a : U n i v e r s i t y o f North Carolina, 1 3 , p . 1 - 3 2 . Whitney ¥. M. and C. M. G r i g g . 1 9 5 8 . " P a t t e r n s o f M o b i l i t y Among a Group o f F a m i l i e s o f C o l l e g e Students", American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review. 2 3 , p. 6 4 3 - 5 2 . W o l f o r t h , J . R. 1 9 6 5 . Work Residence R e l a t i o n s i n Vancouver. Unpublished T h e s i s , The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia. Wolnert, J . 1 9 6 5 . " B e h a v i o r a l Aspects o f the D e c i s i o n t o M i g r a t e " , Papers o f the Regional Science A s s o c i a t i o n . 1 5 , P. 1 5 9 - 1 6 9 .  Ill  APPENDIX A  1„  What are the ages of each person l i v i n g i n t h i s home? Person  512  Under  5  13- 1918 24/  9.  Flease check the area i n which you l i v e d j u s t before moving here: Vancouver  25- 30- 3 5- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65+ 2? 3V 39 49 54 59 64  City  Any of the f o l l o w i n g : West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby Port hoody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Surrey, D e l t a , White Rock, Richmond  Wife Husband  Other  Sons and Daughters Other Relatives (specify)  10.  I f yaur home j u s t before you moved here was i n Vancouver what s c h o o l ( s ) d i d your c h i l d or c h i l d r e n attend?  11.  Please check the type of home i n which you are now S i n g l e Detached S i n g l e Attached (Duplex) Conversion ( f o r example, a s u i t e i n a home) Apartment ( b u i l d i n g up to 4 s t o r i e s ) Apartment ( b u i l d i n g 4 s t o r i e s and more) Row House or Town House Other ( s p e c i f y )  12.  I s your present home rented or owned? Rente d • Owned  13.  Please check the type of home i n which you l i v e d j u s t before you moved here: S i n g l e Detached S i n g l e Attached (Duplex) Conversion ( f o r example, a s u i t e i n a home) Apartment ( b u i l d i n g up to 4 s t o r i e s ) . Apartment ( b u i l d i n g more than 4 s t o r i e s ) Row House or Town House Other ( s p e c i f y )  14.  Was your previous home rented or owned? Rented Owned  15.  How does the f a m i l y l i v i n g space i n t h i s home compare with t h a t i n your previous home? More The Same Less  16.  Compared with the s i z e of your f a m i l y when you were l i v i n g i n your previous home, what i s the s i z e o f your f a m i l y now? Larger The Same Smaller  17.  How do your present monthly payments (mortgage, i f buying your home, and r e n t , i f r e n t i n g ) compare with those o f the home you l i v e d i n j u s t before moving here? Kore The Same Less  Others (specify) 2.  Which s c h o o l ( s ) do your c h i l d r e n attend?  3.  What i s your m a r i t a l status? Single Divorced Marr i e d Separated Widowed r  4.  I f you immigrated i n t o Canada, what country d i d you come from?  5.  I f you immigrated i n t o Canada, when d i d you come?  6.  Please i n d i c a t e the e d u c a t i o n a l l e v e l o f the head of the house: Some High School or Less High School Diploma Some V o c a t i o n a l or T e c h n i c a l T r a i n i n g Some U n i v e r s i t y or College U n i v e r s i t y o r College Degree(s)  7.  What i s the occupation of the head o f t h i s  house?  8.  Please i n d i c a t e the income l e v e l o f t h i s house (before t a x e s ) : Under $6000 $6000 t o $8999 $9000 t o $11999 ::12000 t o $17999 5118000 t o -$23999 $24000 and over  City,  living:  J~~ ^  There are many r t t s o n s why people move out of one area ana i n t o another one. Some people do not l i k e c e r t a i n things about t h e i r home and neighborhood. a.  b.  I f there were things you d i d not l i k e about your home which ware part of the reason why you moved, what v.ere these things?  I f there were things you d i d not l i k e about your neighborhood which were part of the reason why you moved, what were these things?  The f o l l o w i n g i s a l i s t of t h i n g s which rr.ay have been of importance i n your d e c i s i o n t o move out of your l a s t , r e s i d e n c e . Please i n d i c a t e whether they were of no importance, of some importance, or of great importance i n your d e c i s i o n t o move: Of ito Importance  Of iome Importance  Of Great Importance  20.  ••hen you were l o o k i n g f o r a new place t o l i v e , what neighborhoods or areas d i d you consider?  21.  Why d i d you consider these areas?  22.  What were the important reasons f o r choosing your present home?  23.  Hew important were each of t h e f o l l o w i n g i n your choice of your present home? Of No Importance Being near t o daycare centres Being near to playgrounds and Being near t o f r i e n d s and r e l a t i v e s . Eeing near to people of same  Too f a r from playgrounds and Too f a r from daycare centers  Home too c o s t l y (rent, p r i c e of  E v i c t e d by l a n d l o r d f o r a number of reasons - he d i d not l i k e pets,  Was o f f e r e d a good p r i c e f o r home..  Too much t r a f f i c i n neighborhood... Wanted t o l i v e i n a n i c e r home  THANK  YOU  VERY KUCH  FOR  YOUR  COOPERATION..  Of Same Of Great Importance Importance  114  APPENDIX B  TALLY SHEET OF STUDENT TRANSFERS  Kind. Gr. 1 Gr. 2 Gr. 3 Gr. 4 Gr. 5 Gr. 6 Gr. 7 Sp. Total  A-STUDENTS TRANSFERRED OUT OF THE SCHOOL New Add.-Van. . Lower M a i n . O u t s i d e Lower M. Same Add.-Van. P r i v a t e S c h . Other  1 I  i  New Add.-Van.  B-STUDENTS TRANSFERRED INTO THE SCHOOL Lower Main,* O u t s i d e Lower M. Same Add.-Van. P r i v a t e Scb. Other  Kind. Gr. 1 Gr. 2 Dr. 3 pr. 4 1 &r. 5 Sr. 6 Gr. 7 bp. Total 1 Ti'A: fJew Add.-Van. = New 'address and a d i f f e r e n t s c h o o l i n Vancouver C i t y . Same Add.-Van. = Same a d d r e s s but a d i f f e r e n t s c h o o l i n Vancouver C i t y . Lower M a i n , and Lower M. = Lower M a i n l a n d ( e x c l u s i v e o f Vancouver C i t y ) . i 1  -  116  APPENDIX C  117  Chi-square The tested  v a l i d i t y of the  by means of the  v a r i o u s hypotheses  chi-square t e s t c r i t e r i o n .  S t a t e d i n simple terms, the the  probability  that  was  an  chi-square t e s t  indicates  observed p r o p o r t i o n of a  p o p u l a t i o n p o s s e s s i n g some a t t r i b u t e  i s consistent  wit-h  a s p e c i f i e d , or expected value f o r t h i s p r o p o r t i o n . The analysis  SPSS c r o s s t a b u l a t i o n  programme used i n  computed t o t a l c h i - s q u a r e s f o r each  crosstabulation.  In c o n j u n c t i o n with the  degrees o f freedom, the magnitude of the indicates  the  among the  crosstabulated attributes  w i t h the  p r o b a b i l i t y that  hypothesis that  S i n c e the  the  nothing about the  the  the  indicated chi-square  observed d i s t r i b u t i o n is  consistent  a t t r i b u t e s are  t o t a l chi-square r e f e r s to  d i s t r i b u t i o n among a l l the  where the  the  attributes,  it  individual attributes.  independent.  the indicates In  instances  t o t a l c h i - s q u a r e i s s i g n i f i c a n t , i . e . where  attributes  t o examine the  are  not  independent, i t i s i n s t r u c t i v e  c h i - s q u a r e f o r each a t t r i b u t e  combination  s e p a r a t e l y i n order t o d i s c o v e r any  particular  dependencies among the  These i n d i v i d u a l  attributes.  c h i - s q u a r e s may  be  c o n s i d e r e d to have one  freedom f o r the  purpose of a s s e s s i n g  degree  of-  significance.  118 ( T h i s i s not s t r i c t l y c o r r e c t  as w i l l be shown,  but t h e method i s i n d i c a t i v e o f s i g n i f i c a n c e ) . The c a l c u l a t i o n of c h i - s q u a r e and the s p e c i a l method i n d i c a t e d  above i s i l l u s t r a t e d  by the f o l l o w i n g  example. OBSERVED FREQUENCIES Area of O r i g i n Other areas  Row Total  99  19  118  13  8  21  33  23  56  145  50  195  city  Lower Mainland Outside the Lower Mainland  Column  of Job Some I m p .  Change No. I m o .  Total  I f the crosstabulated a t t r i b u t e s  are independent,  the expected f r e q u e n c i e s w i l l be d i s t r i b u t e d i n p r o p o r t i o n t o the r e s p e c t i v e For  column and row  totals.  example, the expected frequency i n column 1,  row 1 w i l l be: E,, = 195x145/195 x 118/195 = 17110/195 = 87.74  The expected f r e q u e n c i e s are as f o l l o w s :  EXPECTED FREQUENCIES Change ..of Job No. Imp. Some Imp.  Area o f O r i g i n Other areas  city-  Row Total  87.74  30.26  118  .Lower Mainland  15.62  5.38  21  Outside the Lower Mainland  41.64  14.36  56  Column  total  145  50  195  The c h i - s q u a r e f o r the e n t i r e t a b u l a t i o n i s c a l c u a l t e d from the f o l l o w i n g f o r m u l a :  0^"= i.e.  J>(0-E) /E 2  as the sum o f the c h i - s q u a r e s " c o n t r i b u t e d " by  each column/row  cell.  120  These c h i - s q u a r e c o n t r i b u t i o n s  are as  follows:  CHI-SQUARE Area of  Origin  Other cityareas  Change of Job Some Imp. Imp.  No.  Row Total  1.44  4.19  5.63  .44  1.27  1.71  Lower Mainland Outside the Lower Mainland  1.79  5.20  6.99  Column T o t a l  3.67  10.66  14.33  The  degrees of freedom f o r the t o t a l c h i - s q u a r e i s : df. = =  (Columns - l)x(Rows (2-l)x(3-D = 2  1)  C o n s i d e r i n g each a t t r i b u t e comination t o have 1 d f . w i l l give too  f o r the  entire table; this i s  t o t a l chi-square i s h i g h l y  i s l a r g e r than the t a b u l a t e d  p = 0.005.  The  significant  value of 10.60  major c o n t r i b u t i o n s  to the  c h i - s q u a r e a r i s e i n column 2, rows 1 and the  obviously  large. The  it  6 df»  l a r g e s t i n d i v i d u a l chi-square values.  3»  since for  total with  121  The reasons why rows 1 and 3 o f column 2 produced  statistically  s i g n i f i c a n t chi-square  v a l u e s can be determined  by l o o k i n g a t the p r o p o r t i o n s  from the v a r i o u s areas o f o r i g i n a t t a c h i n g to  importance  "change o f j o b " , r e l a t i v e t o the p r o p o r t i o n s which  these groups c o n s t i t u t e o f the t o t a l sample; and the p r o p o r t i o n s a t t a c h i n g importance are  t o i t which  from the v a r i o u s areas o f o r i g i n , r e l a t i v e t o the  p r o p o r t i o n s i n the t o t a l sample a t t a c h i n g importance t o it. PROPORTIONS Area o f O r i g i n  Change of Job No , Imp. Some Imp.  Row Total  Other c i t y areas  a. = 83.9%* b. = 63.3%'  a. = 1 6 . 1 % . b. = 3 8 . 0 %  c. « 6 0 . 5 %  Lower Mainland  a. = 61.9% b. = 9.0%  a. = 38.1% b. = 1 6 . 0 %  c. = 10.8%  Outside the Lower Mainland  a. = 58.9% b. = 22.8%  a. = 4 1 . 1 % b. = 4 6 . 0 %  c. = 28.7%  Column Percentage  d  d. = 2 5 , 6 %  100.0%  0  = 74.7%  where: a. = the i n d i v i d u a l row percentages, o r the p r o p o r t i o n s from each area o f o r i g i n • a t t a c h i n g importance t o "change o f j o b " ; b. = the i n d i v i d u a l column percentages, or the p r o p o r t i o n s a t t a c h i n g importance to "change o f j o b " being from v a r i o u s areas of o r i g i n ; c. = t h e row percentage, or the p r o p o r t i o n o f the t o t a l sample r e p r e s e n t e d by respondents from each area o f o r i e i n ; d. = the column percentage, or the p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l responses t o each c a t e g o r y o f the v a r i a b l e (""change of j o b " ) .  For  example, row 1, column 2 d e p i c t s 16.1% of the  f a m i l i e s from other c i t y areas as i n d i c a t i n g  "change  of j o b " t o be an important reason f o r moving:. i s lower than the percentage f o r the t o t a l (25.6%).  Of those i n d i c a t i n g  This  sample  "change of j o b " t o be  important, 38.0% were from other c i t y areas, although t h i s group c o n s t i t u t e d 60.5% of the t o t a l Row  responses.  t h r e e , column 2 d e p i c t s 41.1% o f the f a m i l i e s  from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland a t t a c h i n g to  "change of j o b " i n t h e i r  d e c i s i o n to move.  importance This  i s h i g h e r than the p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l sample a t t a c h i n g importance  t o "change of j o b " (25.6%).  those i n d i c a t i n g i t t o be important, 46.0% were areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland.  Of from  T h i s group,  however, comprised o n l y 28.7% o f the respondents. significantly  Th«  s t a t i s t i c c h i - s q u a r e f o r the t o t a l sample,  t h e r e f o r e , i s due t o fewer respondents than  expected  from other c i t y areas a t t a c h i n g importance t o to  "change o f j o b , and a g r e a t e r number than expected n  from areas o u t s i d e the Lower Mainland a t t a c h i n g to i t .  importance  

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