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Effects of temporal perspective width on intuitive prediction of player behaviour by ice-hockey officials Tench, Elizabeth 1991

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EFFECTS OF TEMPORAL PERSPECTIVE WIDTH ON INTUITIVE PREDICTION OF PLAYER BEHAVIOUR BY ICE-HOCKEY OFFICIALS by ELIZABETH TENCH B.Ed, The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1977 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Department of Psychology, U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia) We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the r e q u i r e d standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1991 © E l i z a b e t h Tench, 1991 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of TT5( The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada Date CLpril, linJRi DE-6 (2/88) ABSTRACT T h i s t h e s i s i n v e s t i g a t e s a new model of non-normative p r e d i c t i o n t h at addresses the c o n t r i b u t i o n of width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . I n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s d e f i n e d i n t h i s t h e s i s as the non-normative p r e d i c t i o n of other's behaviour. T h i s new model of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s termed the Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Model (TPM). The n o t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e expands upon the understanding of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n p rovided by s e v e r a l major s o c i a l and c o g n i t i v e t h e o r i e s of the judgement process. TPM a s s e r t s that u t i l i s a t i o n of the t r i a d of past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e , present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n c r e a s e s accuracy of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i n judgement contexts. Past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s are used through the g e n e r a t i o n and r e h e a r s a l of both e x p e r i e n c e - a c q u i r e d and n o v e l , p o s s i b l e judgement s t r a t e g i e s o u t s i d e of the a c t u a l judgement context (GIOA). Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (PTP) p l a y s a mediating r o l e i n the e x p r e s s i o n of the products of t h i s process w i t h i n the judgement context. TPM p o s i t s that the width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s i n f l u e n c e d by p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y , which i s a s s o c i a t e d with use of past and f u t u r e p e r s p e c t i v e s i n the g e n e r a t i o n of judgement s t r a t e g i e s , and a l s o by m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e , which i s a s s o c i a t e d with engagement of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . F i v e m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s and t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d a f f e c t s are proposed as i n f l u e n c e s on present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e : a g g r e s s i v e m o t i v a t i o n , c o n f l i c t m o t i v a t i o n , c o m p e t i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n , c o o p e r a t i v e m o t i v a t i o n and competence m o t i v a t i o n . The context i n which TPM has been i n v e s t i g a t e d i s the s p o r t environment. The s u b j e c t s i n t h i s study were 118 i c e -hockey o f f i c i a l s from Vancouver's Lower Mainland. A two by two f a c t o r i a l d e s i g n was u t i l i s e d t o i n v e s t i g a t e the major p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t the temporal p e r s p e c t i v e model d i s t i n g u i s h e s i n d i v i d u a l s i n terms of o v e r a l l achievement i n a judgement con t e x t . The o v e r a l l achievement v a r i a b l e was the f i r s t p r i n c i p l e component d e r i v e d from an a n a l y s i s of a s e t of nine items r e f e r r i n g t o achieved l e v e l s of o f f i c i a t i n g , number of games assigned and s u p e r v i s o r and peer commendations. T h i s a n a l y s i s demonstrated s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between l e v e l s of o v e r a l l achievement on the f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s : a) engagement of past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s o u t s i d e of the judgement context; b) engagement of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e w i t h i n the judgement context; c) the m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s of c o o p e r a t i o n and competence. Aggressive, c o n f l i c t and c o m p e t i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n s d i d not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i s t i n g u i s h groups i n terms of o v e r a l l achievement. A second two by two d e s i g n of p a s t - f u t u r e by present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e was implemented to i n v e s t i g a t e the mediation of p a s t - f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s by present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e on the dependent v a r i a b l e of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . The v a r i a b l e of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n was the f i r s t p r i n c i p l e component of an a n a l y s i s performed on f i v e items r e l a t i n g to peer r e p o r t s of implementation of s u c c e s s f u l , c r e a t i v e or o r i g i n a l s o l u t i o n s to game problems. T h i s a n a l y s i s y i e l d e d s i g n i f i c a n t main e f f e c t s f o r the f i r s t f a c t o r of p a s t -f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and f o r the second f a c t o r of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . A h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n t e r a c t i o n was found between p a s t - f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e on the dependent v a r i a b l e i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . C o r r e l a t i o n a l a n a l y s e s r e v e a l e d s i g n i f i c a n t a s s o c i a t i o n s between present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e . The r e s u l t s of t h i s study have l a r g e l y supported the v a l i d i t y of the c o n s t r u c t s proposed i n TPM. / i v TABLE OF CONTENTS A b s t r a c t i i Table of Contents i v / L i s t of T a b l e s v i i L i s t of Appendix Tables v i i i L i s t of F i g u r e s i x Acknowledgements x Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 1. Themes d i s t i n g u i s h i n g the Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Model (TPM) from P r e v a i l i n g T h e o r i e s of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n ' 2 2. Summary of O b j e c t i v e s 7 3. Fundamental Model Assumption: Judgement Versus A c t i o n 7 4. C o n s t r u c t D e f i n i t i o n s i n TPM 10 4. L i t e r a t u r e Review: Part One: A Review of Major S o c i a l , C o g n i t i v e and D e c i s i o n T h e o r i e s of Judgement 14 a. Lewin's F i e l d Theory: Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e i n S o c i a l Psychology 16 b. A t t r i b u t i o n Theory and Judgement 19 c. H e i d e r ' s Naive Psychology 19 d. Correspondent Inference Theory and Judgement 21 e. K e l l e y ' s A t t r i b u t i o n Model and Judgement 23 f. Summary: The U t i l i t y of A t t r i b u t i o n Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 24 g. C r i t i c i s m s of A t t r i b u t i o n Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 24 h. C o g n i t i v e Theory: Schemas and Judgement 30 i . Summary: The U t i l i t y of Schema Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 38 j . C r i t i c i s m s of Schema Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 38 k. D e c i s i o n Theory and Judgement 42 1. Summary: The U t i l i t y of D e c i s i o n Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 49 m. C r i t i c i s m s of D e c i s i o n Theory i n Terms Terms of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 50 n. Summary of L i t e r a t u r e Review P a r t One. 53 5. L i t e r a t u r e Review: Part Two: I n f l u e n c e s on Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e 54 V a. Current Concept D e f i n i t i o n s and M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Problems i n the Study of Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e 54 b. The Requirement f o r a Model of Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e 56 c. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and M o t i v a t i o n 57 d. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and S t r e s s 58 e. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and Ego S t r e n g t h 61 f. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and Development 63 g. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and Achievement 67 h. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and R e f l e c t i v i t y 68 i . Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and A f f e c t 69 j . Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e as a S t y l i s t i c V a r i a b l e 70 k. Summary: P o i n t s from the Current L i t e r a t u r e on Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e 71 6. Summary of the L i t e r a t u r e Review: The Need f o r a New Model of Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e 73 7. The Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Model: The Current Study 76 a. The Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Model: A Model of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 79 b. Model P a r t A: Processes Outside of the Performance S i t u a t i o n 83 c. Future and Past Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e s : Generation of Images-of-Achievement (GIOA) 83 d. I n f l u e n c e s on GIOA: S e l f - E f f i c a c y 87 e. Model P a r t B: Processes W i t h i n the Performance S i t u a t i o n 88 f. Present Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e (PTP) 88 g. M o t i v a t i o n a l I n f l u e n c e s on PTP 88 h. Negative A f f e c t and PTP 91 i . E f f e c t s of Aggressive M o t i v a t i o n on PTP 91 j . E f f e c t s of C o n f l i c t e d m o t i v a t i o n on PTP 92 k. Summary of TPM P r o p o s i t i o n s 93 I I . OBJECTIVES 95 I I I . HYPOTHESES 96 IV. METHOD 98 a. Procedure 99 b. Instruments and Measures 100 V. ' DESIGN AND ANALYSES 105 VI. RESULTS 107 v i VII. DISCUSSION 114 a. The TPM Model 114 b. GIOA: C o n t r i b u t i o n s of A c t i v i t y Outside the Performance S i t u a t i o n to I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 114 c. M o t i v a t i o n t o Engage i n GIOA: the I n f l u e n c e of S e l f - E f f i c a c y i n Schema Adaptations 119 d. The Role of PTP i n I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n . 121 e. Influe n c e s on PTP: M o t i v a t i o n a l V a r i a b l e s 123 VI I I . REFERENCES 128 IX. APPENDIX 155 a. Scale V a l i d a t i o n s 156 b. H i s t o r i c a l development of Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Concept 163 TABLES TABLE 1. MANOVA on O v e r a l l Achievement by Years of Experience 2. C e l l Frequencies f o r MANOVA on O v e r a l l Achievement by Years of Experience 3. U n i v a r i a t e ANOVAS Fo l l o w i n g S i g n i f i c a n t MANOVA on O v e r a l l Achievement 4. Comparison of Group Means on U n i v a r i a t e ANOVAS f o l l o w i n g S i g n i f i c a n t MANOVA 5. Two-Factor ANOVA of GIOA by PTP on I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 6. Means and N's For Two-Way ANOVA on I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 7. C o r r e l a t i o n s Between Aggression, C o n f l i c t and Competence M o t i v a t i o n s and PTP 8. C o r r e l a t i o n s Between Cooperation and Competence M o t i v a t i o n s and PTP VI 1 1 APPENDIX TABLES 1. D i s c r i m i n a n t V a l i d i t y of TPM S c a l e s 155 2. C o r r e l a t i o n s between M o t i v a t i o n S c a l e s and O b j e c t i v e c r i t e r i a 156 3. V a l i d a t i o n s of GIOA Scale 157 4. V a l i d a t i o n s of PTP Scale 159 5. V a l i d a t i o n s of S e l f - e f f i c a c y S c a l e 160 6. C o r r e l a t i o n s between O v e r a l l Achievement, I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n and Years of Experience 160 7. T o t a l Sample Means on TPM V a r i a b l e s 161 FIGURES Page The Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Model: A Model of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n 79 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T h i s t h e s i s could not have been completed without the kind a s s i s t a n c e of my committee c h a i r p e r s o n Dr. Susan Butt, whose a d v i c e , patience and many hours spent on t h i s p r o j e c t have been much ap p r e c i a t e d . I would a l s o l i k e to thank the members of my committee: Dr. Ralph H a k s t i a n , who i n s p i r e d a co n f i d e n c e i n and enjoyment of s t a t i s t i c s , and Dr. J e n n i f e r Campbell f o r her h e l p f u l advice. I would e s p e c i a l l y l i k e to thank my committee member and f r i e n d Dr. G i l l i a n Watson, who gave generously of her time and whose suggestions have c o n t r i b u t e d g r e a t l y ' to the success of t h i s p r o j e c t . I am a l s o indebted t o V i r g i n i a Green who has a s p e c i a l g i f t f o r combining kindness, endless patience and expert knowledge i n the course of a s s i s t i n g with s t a t i s t i c a l q u e s t i o n s . To the o f f i c i a l s of the Lower Mainland who gave t h e i r time i n order to make t h i s t h e s i s p o s s i b l e I extend my s i n c e r e thanks. In p a r t i c u l a r I am g r a t e f u l f o r the e f f o r t s of Mr. Douglas Stokes, Mr. Ron Jones, Wes Smith, Rob Gordon, Jim F i s h e r , Jay S harrers, Shaun M c M i l l a n , Derek Adams, Ken P i l g r i m , Sarah Hunter, Rob L o n c a r i c , C u r t i s Berry and the f a m i l y of L u c i l l e Hoover. I would a l s o l i k e t o thank my dear hockey f r i e n d s John Musser and Ron Patch f o r t h e i r support and much a p p r e c i a t e d g o a l t e n d i n g advice d u r i n g t h i s . time. I would a l s o l i k e to express my a p p r e c i a t i o n f o r the support of Dr. and Mrs. Liang Ng, Cindy Carey and Al Wong f o r t h e i r kindness d u r i n g the work of t h i s t h e s i s . F i n a l l y I would l i k e to thank my f a m i l y : George, Doreen, and Anthony Tench; E l a i n e , Bob, Alexandra and Amy Markin; and Anthea, Mi c h a e l , L i a n a and Mark Stammers f o r t h e i r unwavering lov e , encouragement and f a i t h . I f not f o r them, t h i s . t h e s i s would not have been p o s s i b l e . INTRODUCTION 1 T h i s t h e s i s i s concerned w i t h the proposal and e x p l o r a t i o n of a model t h a t emphasises the importance of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i n a s o c i a l s e t t i n g . I n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n can be d e f i n e d as the non-normative p r e d i c t i o n of other's behaviour ( N i s b e t t & Ross, 1980). T h i s new model, termed the Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Model (TPM), i s examined i n the context of the sp o r t environment. Three words capture the essence of t h i s t h e s i s : ' p r e d i c t i o n ' , 'temporal' and 'p e r s p e c t i v e ' . The Oxford d i c t i o n a r y d e f i n e s p r e d i c t i o n as the " . . . c o g n i t i v e a b i l i t y to f o r e t e l l (or) prophesy", 'temporal' i s d e f i n e d as ' denoting time and space', and ' p e r s p e c t i v e ' i s drawn from the L a t i n word p e r s p e c t i v a , meaning "to look" o r to g i v e a t t e n t i o n t o (Mcintosh, 1974). These three simple d e f i n i t i o n s can be combined to c o n s t i t u t e the primary t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o s i t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s that u n d e r l i e s TPM: The a b i l i t y of an i n d i v i d u a l to f o r e t e l l the behaviour of others, or t o engage i n ' i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n ' , i s enhanced by i n c r e a s i n g the width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e or d i r e c t i n g mental p e r s p e c t i v e t o knowledge from three p o i n t s of the temporal event t r i a d : 1) a c t u a l past events (past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ) ; 2) pe r c e i v e d present events (present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ) : 3) 2 imagined, p o s s i b l e f u t u r e events ( f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ) . One may v i s u a l i z e the past, present and f u t u r e of an i n d i v i d u a l ' s s o c i a l e xperiences as a t r i a d i c p a r t i t i o n i n g of a c t u a l and imagined events i n time/space based on the degree to which event outcomes are c e r t a i n . For the purposes of t h i s model, past, present and future are d e f i n e d i n terms of event outcome c e r t a i n t y i n the f o l l o w i n g way: past events are those events whose outcomes are i r r e v o c a b l y determined, present events are those whose outcomes are p a r t i a l l y determined by the presence of d e f i n i n g f a c t o r s or cues, and f u t u r e events are those events whose outcomes are wholly i n d e t e r m i n a t e . Themes D i s t i n g u i s h i n g TPM from P r e v a i l i n g T h e o r i e s of I n t u i t i v e  P r e d i c t i o n There are s e v e r a l themes t h a t d i s t i n g u i s h TPM from many of the p r e v a i l i n g t h e o r i e s i n s o c i a l and c o g n i t i v e psychology: 1) TPM o u t l i n e s the importance of the p r e d i c t o r ' s c o n s i d e r a t i o n of a l l three p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d to the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . TPM i n t r o d u c e s the n o t i o n that p r e v i o u s models of the e x p l a n a t i o n and p r e d i c t i o n p rocess s u f f e r i n the emphasis of the p e r c e i v e r ' s use of i n f o r m a t i o n d e r i v e d s o l e l y from r e l a t i v e l y p a s s i v e p r o c e s s i n g of p r e s e n t and past events, without c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the impact of imagined f u t u r e events on these processes. TPM a s s e r t s t h a t e x c l u s i v e use of b a s e - r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n i n p r e d i c t i o n leads to i n f e r i o r p r e d i c t i o n because s i t u a t i o n a l outcomes are m u l t i f a c t o r i a l i n o r i g i n and c o n t i n u a l l y e v o l v i n g w i t h the changing environment. Past-based i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s always a st e p behind the events of the performance s i t u a t i o n because i t i s based on what has been and not what could be. Normative theory would suggest t h a t p r e d i c t i o n of the low p r o b a b i l i t y event i s of l i t t l e u t i l i t y i f the average event can be p r e d i c t e d s u c c e s s f u l l y through normative methods (Nisbet t & Ross, 1980). I t may be s t a t e d , however, that the cost of normative p r e d i c t i o n , which can be d e s c r i b e d as the achievement of parsimony i n i n f o r m a t i o n r e p r e s e n t a t i o n , i s accuracy of low p r o b a b i l i t y events. There are two ways i n which p r e d i c t i o n of the low p r o b a b i l i t y event i s important: a) i f the outcome cost of f a i l i n g to p r e d i c t the uncommon event i s high b) i f the uncommon events i n qu e s t i o n are low p r o b a b i l i t y events that can be p r o j e c t e d t o have a hi g h e r p r o b a b i l i t y of occurrence i n the near f u t u r e Two examples drawn from the sp o r t context i l l u s t r a t e the importance of the low p r o b a b i l i t y event i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . An example of the f i r s t type o f low p r o b a b i l i t y event i s when a p l a y e r p h y s i c a l l y aggresses a g a i n s t u n r u l y fans i n the audience at a game. F a i l u r e t o i n t e r v e n e s u c c e s s f u l l y on the part of the o f f i c i a l can r e s u l t i n personal i n j u r y , l a w s u i t s and l o s s of p o s i t i o n f o r the o f f i c i a l . An example of the second type of low p r o b a b i l i t y event may be drawn from the p e r i o d of the l a t e 1980's d u r i n g 4 which i t has slowly became apparent that c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of p l a y e r p o p u l a r i t y have begun to supersede c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r o f f i c i a l ' s a u t h o r i t y , r e s u l t i n g i n e s c a l a t i o n s i n the i n c i d e n c e of p l a y e r -o f f i c i a l c o n f l i c t s . P r e d i c t i o n of the low p r o b a b i l i t y event i s a n e c e s s i t y i f one adheres to the f o l l o w i n g n o t i o n s : a) both . s i t u a t i o n and d i s p o s i t i o n i n t e r a c t to a f f e c t behaviour: b) the human s p e c i e s i s i n a continuous s t a t e of development, t h e r e f o r e d i s p o s i t i o n a l e v o l u t i o n ; c) the environment ( s i t u a t i o n ) i s c o n s t a n t l y changing and e v o l v i n g . The concept of i n a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of past models has been p r e v i o u s l y suggested (Abelson, 1976; Frank, 1939). 2) TPM proposes that a preparatory process of r e s o l u t i o n of imaginary or p o s s i b l e future event.problems o u t s i d e of the a c t u a l event context, termed g e n e r a t i o n of images-of-achievement (GIOA). c o n t r i b u t e s to the enhancement of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . GIOA i n v o l v e s the engagement of past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n the sense that past a c t u a l events are u t i l i s e d by the i n d i v i d u a l i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of novel, p o s s i b l e f u t u r e events. T h i s process i s proposed to enhance the s e l e c t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e judgements and a c t i o n s t r a t e g i e s concerning the outcome of a c t u a l events by r e d u c i n g the p r o c e s s i n g and decision-making load w i t h i n the event context. In e f f e c t , judgements are made a p r i o r i o u t s i d e of the event context. T h i s / d i s t i n c t i o n s h i f t s part of the focus of the study of 5 judgement from the t y p i c a l i n - s i t u a t i o n a n a l y s i s t o an i n v e s t i g a t i o n of the c o n t r i b u t i o n of engagement of both past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s o u t s i d e of the a c t u a l s i t u a t i o n to the i n - s i t u a t i o n judgement task. W i t h i n the performance s i t u a t i o n , TPM p o s i t s that the major task of the i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t o r i s to engage present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n the p e r c e p t i o n of s i t u a t i o n a l cues. These s i t u a t i o n a l cues are then matched to the products of engagement of past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s (GIOA) i n memory. T h i s matching process i s p o s i t e d t o d i r e c t judgment and, consequently, a c t i o n . The three temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s are p o s i t e d to i n t e r a c t i n the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . 3) TPM i s concerned with a s e t of i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e s that are proposed t o i n f l u e n c e the a b i l i t y of the i n d i v i d u a l to make use of a l l t h r e e p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d and which form the b a s i s f o r a model of the i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n process. I t i s e s s e n t i a l at t h i s p o i n t to make c l e a r that t h i s study i s not intended as a v a l i d a t i o n of the causal pathways of the proposed model, but r a t h e r as an i n i t i a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the l i k e l i h o o d of p a r t i c u l a r m o t i v a t i o n a l components being important to the TPM model. These i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e s are proposed to have an e f f e c t on achievement i n judgement contexts through t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on the t r i a d of p e r s p e c t i v e s and c o n s i s t of the f o l l o w i n g : 6 a) GIOA: A b i l i t y to generate a l t e r n a t i v e outcomes or g e n e r a t i o n of images-of-achievement (use of past and f u t u r e p o i n t s of temporal t r i a d ) b) S e l f - e f f i c a c y : m o t i v a t i o n a l e f f e c t s of p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y on GIOA a c t i v i t y . c) Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (PTP): a b i l i t y t o ma i n t a i n focus on present cues i n performance s i t u a t i o n s (use of present p o i n t of temporal t r i a d ) d) M o t i v a t i o n : e f f e c t s of a g g r e s s i v e , c o n f l i c t e d , competence, c o o p e r a t i v e and competitive m o t i v a t i o n s on PTP. 4) TPM emphasises the importance of d i f f e r e n c e s i n judgement s t y l e s and r e l a t e d achievement outcomes. I n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the engagement of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s and the i n f l u e n c e of p a r t i c u l a r a s s o c i a t e d v a r i a b l e s on temporal p e r s p e c t i v e are proposed t o a f f e c t achievement i n the judgement c o n t e x t . Achievement c o n s i d e r a t i o n s are p o s i t e d t o be v a l u a b l e c r i t e r i a by which to i l l u m i n a t e d i f f e r e n c e s i n judgement s t y l e . T h i s study has been conducted i n the context of the s p o r t environment. S p e c i f i c a l l y , the p r e d i c t i o n of p l a y e r behaviour by ice-hockey o f f i c i a l s i s the v e h i c l e by which i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s s t u d i e d . For the purposes of t h i s t h e s i s , the 'events' under c o n s i d e r a t i o n are d e f i n e d as ongoing c o n f l i c t e d i n t e r a c t i o n s between two or more p l a y e r s that commence at the f i r s t p o i n t of a g g r e s s i v e v e r b a l or p h y s i c a l c o n t a c t and are concluded when 7 aggressive c o n t a c t between those p l a y e r s i s completed. Of s p e c i f i c i n t e r e s t i s the event i n which an o f f i c i a l must inter c e d e s u b t l y or o v e r t l y i n order to m a i n t a i n a c t i v e involvement i n the game f o r the m a j o r i t y of the p a r t i c i p a n t s . T h erefore, s i n c e i t i s the r o l e of the o f f i c i a l t o intervene or perform i n these c o n f l i c t e d events, these events are termed 'performance s i t u a t i o n s ' . Summary of O b j e c t i v e s In summary, three major o b j e c t i v e s are addressed i n t h i s i • t h e s i s : 1) The t h e s i s examines the importance of width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . 2) The t h e s i s addresses the question of whether the set of i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e s proposed as elements of TPM are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the engagement of the t h r e e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s . 3) The t h e s i s i n v e s t i g a t e s the c o n s t r u c t v a l i d i t y of the proposed TPM model. T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s framed as the q u e s t i o n of whether the model elements d i s t i n g u i s h i n d i v i d u a l s i n terms of o v e r a l l achievement i n a s p o r t judgement context. Fundamental Model Assumption: Judgement Versus A c t i o n A fundamental assumption u n d e r l y i n g the i n v e s t i g a t i o n of the o b j e c t i v e s o u t l i n e d i s t h a t judgement i s i n some manner a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a c t i o n and t h e r e f o r e with achievement i n the 8 domain i n which the judgements are being made. 'Action', i n the context of t h i s t h e s i s , r e f e r s to judgement-prompted i n t e r v e n t i o n on the part of the o f f i c i a l designed to prevent f u r t h e r c o n f l i c t between two or more a g g r e s s i n g p l a y e r s i n performance s i t u a t i o n s . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between judgement and a c t i o n i s somewhat analogous t o the c o n t r o v e r s i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between a t t i t u d e and behaviour i n the s o c i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l l i t e r a t u r e (Ajzen & F i s h b e i n , 1977). The co n t r o v e r s y may be summarized i n the f o l l o w i n g way: does knowing the i n d i v i d u a l ' s e v a l u a t i o n (judgement) of an o b j e c t n e c e s s a r i l y enable one t o p r e d i c t i f that i n d i v i d u a l w i l l choose ( c h o i c e / a c t i o n ) t h a t o b j e c t when given the chance. Researchers have i n d i c a t e d t h a t the " d i s t i n c t i o n between judgements and d e c i s i o n s i s a tenuous one" and use the terms i n t e r c h a n g e a b l y ( S l o v i c & L i c h t e n s t e i n , 1971). T h i s view i s a l s o supported by Wa l l s t e n (1980), Hammond et a l . (1980) and Jaspars (1978), who i n d i c a t e t h a t both judgement and a c t i o n r e p r e s e n t the making of a choice among s e v e r a l a l t e r n a t i v e s . The p o s i t i o n that judgement and a c t i o n are synonymous has had i t s d e t r a c t o r s . Einhorn and Hogarth (1981) maintain that when the i n d i v i d u a l makes c h o i c e s , r e s p o n s i b i l i t y and r e g r e t e n t e r i n t o the d e c i s i o n so can i t can be p o s t u l a t e d that judgement i s n e i t h e r s u f f i c i e n t nor n e c e s s a r y f o r ch o i c e . The p o s i t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s on the judgement-action issue has been to i n v e s t i g a t e the GIOA process as an e n t i t y i n i t s e l f by means of s u b j e c t i v e r e p o r t methods and a l s o t o attempt t o l o c a t e an o b j e c t i v e b e h a v i o u r a l achievement c o r r e l a t e t h a t would i n some 9 manner determine that GIOA had o c c u r r e d . T h i s approach addresses the c o n t r o v e r s y by a s s e s s i n g both the nature of judgement as an i n d i v i d u a l process and as the expected behavioural l i n k between t h i s process and achievement outcome. T h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n begins w i t h a set of c o n s t r u c t d e f i n i t i o n s t h a t are e s s e n t i a l to the understanding of how the l i t e r a t u r e review i l l u m i n a t e s the need f o r a model subsuming these c o n s t r u c t s . The l i t e r a t u r e review concentrates on the ' understanding of judgement, as i t a p p l i e s to i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n , that i s p r o v i d e d by s e v e r a l major s o c i a l and c o g n i t i v e p s y c h o l o g i c a l t h e o r i e s . The review concludes w i t h a summary of how the most rec e n t work i n the study of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e demonstrates the m u t a b i l i t y of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e with r e s p e c t to a number of s i t u a t i o n a l and i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e s . The purpose of t h i s endeavour i s to i l l u m i n a t e the n e c e s s i t y f o r a model of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n t h a t a c h i e v e s the f o l l o w i n g o b j e c t i v e s : a) the new model takes i n t o account the importance of u t i l i s i n g a l l t h r e e p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d : b) the new model d e s c r i b e s the c o n t r i b u t i o n of GIOA a c t i v i t y o u t s i d e of the performance s i t u a t i o n to judgement; c) the new model i n v e s t i g a t e s a s s o c i a t i o n s between m o t i v a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s and engagement of the temporal t r i a d . The l i t e r a t u r e review i s f o l l o w e d by an e l a b o r a t i o n of TPM and how i t expands upon c u r r e n t understanding of the judgement p r o c e s s . A d e s c r i p t i o n of the hypotheses, r a t i o n a l e s and procedure that u n d e r l i e the r e s e a r c h i s then presented. F i n a l l y , the r e s u l t s of the study are 10 d i s c u s s e d i n ^ terms of c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g the i m p l i c a t i o n s of the r e s e a r c h . An h i s t o r i c a l review of the e v o l u t i o n of the concept of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e , new s c a l e v a l i d a t i o n s , and a d d i t i o n a l analyses of i n t e r e s t are inc l u d e d i n the appendix. The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n e l a b o r a t e s c o n s t r u c t d e f i n i t i o n s of TPM terms t h a t w i l l be of use i n the review of the l i t e r a t u r e . ' C o n s t r u c t D e f i n i t i o n s i n TPM S e l f - e f f i c a c y . A c o g n i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n d e r i v e d from i n t e r n a l s t a n d a r d s and concerns s e l f - e v a l u a t i v e r e a c t i o n s to one's performances (Bandura, 1977). S e l f - e f f i c a c y i s p o s i t e d by Bandura (1982) to i n f l u e n c e thought p a t t e r n s , a c t i o n s and, emotional a r o u s a l . Judgements of s e l f - e f f i c a c y are important determinants of how much e f f o r t w i l l be expended by an i n d i v i d u a l and the length of p e r s i s t e n c e w i t h d i f f i c u l t t a s k s . Low s e l f -e f f i c a c y i s a s s o c i a t e d with heightened p e r c e p t i o n s of f u t u r e task d i f f i c u l t i e s (Bandura, 1982). GIOA. A c o g n i t i v e process of me n t a l l y r e c o n s t r u c t i n g and d e v e l o p i n g a l t e r n a t i v e images of performance s i t u a t i o n s t h a t i s conducted o u t s i d e of the performance s i t u a t i o n . T h i s process u t i l i s e s both past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s through the c o n s t r u c t i o n of novel or low frequency (future) a l t e r n a t i v e s from the b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s of remembered experiences ( p a s t ) . The k e y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h i s process i s the v i s u a l i s a t i o n of m u l t i p l e outcomes f o r s i m i l a r s e t s of environmental cues or imagining the same i n d i v i d u a l s and environmental cues with d i f f e r e n t p o s s i b l e outcomes. T h i s process encourages the i n d i v i d u a l t o r e c o g n i s e and address the person x environment i n t e r a c t i o n t h a t produces behaviour (Heider, 1958; K e l l e y , 1972b). GIOA can be d i s t i n g u i s h e d from most major judgement model processes by the fe a t u r e of i n c l u s i o n of both past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e images. P a s t -f u t u r e based a l t e r n a t i v e s are developed and t e s t e d i n the performance s i t u a t i o n f o r v a l i d i t y . I t i s to be noted that lack of encounter with a c t u a l experience of p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s does not preclude t h e i r r e t e n t i o n i n memory. The pool of p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e images i s t h e r e f o r e not r e s t r i c t e d t o those events through experience as i n K e l l y ' s (1955) model of c o n s t r u c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v i s m . The novel a l t e r n a t i v e s are proposed to be r e t a i n e d i n memory u n t i l needed. GIOA serves s e v e r a l f u n c t i o n s , one of which i s the removal of the s t r e s s of performance s i t u a t i o n s from the development of judgement a l t e r n a t i v e s , t hereby improving a l t e r n a t i v e complexity and q u a l i t y (Alexander, 1979; Beach and M i t c h e l l , 1978; Ben Zur and B r e z n i t z , 1981; G o l d i n , 1978; P i t z et a l . , 1980). GIOA enhances i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i n performance s i t u a t i o n s by the p r o v i s i o n of ready-made judgements,. T h e in f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g task of the i n d i v i d u a l w i t h i n the performance s i t u a t i o n i s then reduced, from d e v e l o p i n g custom-designed judgements on the spot, to matching s i t u a t i o n a l cues to images-of-achievement already i n memory r e s u l t i n g from GIOA. Imaqes-of-achievement. Pribram (1971) d e f i n e d images-of -achievement (IOA) as h o l i s t i c c o g n i t i v e p l a n s of movement that precede a c t u a l a c t i o n . Pribram's concept of IOA r e f e r r e d to the 12 process by which environmental c o n t i n g e n c i e s and past experiences combine to form a b l u e p r i n t f o r behaviour. Pribram suggested that the image decays every .5 seconds and i s r e p l a c e d by another c o n t a i n i n g a i l the output and outcomes necessary f o r the next step of the p l a n . Environmental cues are screened and f i l t e r e d by the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e r e c o r d of p r i o r e x p e r i e n c e . When the course of a c t i o n looks good, a t e r m i n a l IOA guides the f i n a l phase of a c t i o n and the e n t i r e plan of a c t i o n i s present before i t i s needed ( F i s h e r . 1984). Cooperation, competition, a g g r e s s i o n , c o n f l i c t and  competence m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s . F i v e s o c i a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s proposed by Butt (1979, 1987) to be important to the sport context. The f i v e m o t i v a t i o n s and a s s o c i a t e d a f f e c t s ( i n brackets) are as f o l l o w s : 1) c o o p e r a t i v e : other i n d i v i d u a l s i n the sport context are seen as e s s e n t i a l and a p p r e c i a t e d p a r t n e r s ( p o s i t i v e a f f e c t ) ; 2) c o m p e t i t i v e : m o t i v a t i o n stems from the d e s i r e to d e f e a t o t h e r s (negative a f f e c t ) ; 3) a g g r e s s i v e : t h i s m o t i v a t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h energy, a c t i v i t y and i m p u l s i v i t y (negative a f f e c t ) ; 4) c o n f 1 i c t e d : t h i s m o t i v a t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h n e u r o t i c i s m and s e l f - a b s o r p t i o n (negative a f f e c t ) ; 5) competence: t h i s m o t i v a t i o n i s concerned with s e l f - i n s i g h t , s k i l l development and joy i n s p o r t p a r t i c i p a t i o n ( p o s i t i v e a f f e c t ) . I t i s the a f f e c t i v e component of the f i v e m o t i v a t i o n s , and the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a f f e c t and a t t e n t i o n i n the performance s i t u a t i o n ( N i d e f f e r , 1976, 1979, 1981), that i s of i n t e r e s t i n t h i s t h e s i s . Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (PTP). N i d e f f e r (1976, 1979, 1981; N i d e f f e r & Sharp, 1978) d e f i n e d a t t e n t i o n a l s t y l e s i n terms of width and d i r e c t i o n of focus and i n d i c a t e d that broad-width and e x t e r n a l l y d i r e c t e d a t t e n t i o n was a s s o c i a t e d with h i g h l e v e l s of s o c i a l p r e d i c t i o n i n the s p o r t environment. Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e may be d e f i n e d as a broad-external a t t e n t i o n a l s t y l e . E f f e c t i v e engagement of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e means th a t a m u l t i p l i c i t y of present-based cues i s a v a i l a b l e to the i n d i v i d u a l t o p r o v i d e a b e t t e r match t o an IOA i n memory than j u s t a few cues. In TPM i t i s proposed t h a t the more i n f o r m a t i o n the i n d i v i d u a l has about the cues of the current s i t u a t i o n , the more a c c u r a t e l y a match can be ac h i e v e d between that s i t u a t i o n and.one from the memories storehouse of a c t u a l and hy p o t h e s i z e d e x p e r i e n c e . 14 LITERATURE REVIEW i Part One: A Review of Major S o c i a l , C o g n i t i v e and D e c i s i o n  T h e o r i e s of Judgement Hammond et a l . (1980) o u t l i n e d s i x approaches t o the study of judgement that can be p l a c e d ' i n four general c a t e g o r i e s based upon the degree of p s y c h o l o g i c a l t o economic or c o s t - u t i l i t y based o r i e n t a t i o n . These are: 1) S o c i a l judgement theory, i n f o r m a t i o n i n t e g r a t i o n theory and  a t t r i b u t i o n theory: a l l t h r e e models examine judgements on t h e i r own terms without r e f e r e n c e to p r o b a b i l i t i e s and u t i l i t i e s as fundamental concepts. A t t r i b u t i o n theory has been the l e a s t i n t e g r a t e d i n t o decision-making r e s e a r c h ( F i s c h o f f , 1976). 2) P s y c h o l o g i c a l d e c i s i o n theory: p s y c h o l o g i c a l d e c i s i o n t h e o r y o u t l i n e s d e p a r t u r e s from the normative judgement process. A c o g n i t i v e account of judgement r e p l a c e s normative emphasis. 3) B e h a v i o u r a l d e c i s i o n theory: behavioural d e c i s i o n t h e o r y d e s c r i b e s how task and p s y c h o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s r e s u l t i n departures from normative theory. 4) D e c i s i o n theory: d e c i s i o n theory concentrates on p r o b a b i l i t i e s and u t i l i t i e s and how an i n d i v i d u a l s h o u l d make d e c i s i o n s i f f o l l o w i n g a normative model. P a r t One o f . t h i s l i t e r a t u r e review f o l l o w s the l o g i c of the t h e o r e t i c a l p r o g r e s s i o n o u t l i n e d by Hammond, although i t does not encompass every type of judgement theory e l a b o r a t e d by Hammond. The review commences with a d i s c u s s i o n of the importance of the concept of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to the understanding of human p e r c e p t i o n , as o u t l i n e d i n Lewin's f i e l d theory (1935). The remainder of the 1 i t e r a t u r e . r e v i e w i s concerned w i t h an e x p l o r a t i o n of the c o n t r i b u t i o n s to the understanding of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n provided by a t t r i b u t i o n theory, c o g n i t i v e theory and decision-making theory. Each t h e o r e t i c a l p o s i t i o n i s accompanied by two s u b s e c t i o n s . The f i r s t subsection.summarises u s e f u l c o n t r i b u t i o n s of each theory t h a t have a p p l i c a t i o n t o TPM. The second s u b s e c t i o n e l a b o r a t e s the shortcomings of each t h e o r e t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n d e s c r i b e d and s e t s the stage f o r the need fo r a new theory of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . P a r t One of the l i t e r a t u r e review c o n c e n t r a t e s on the f o l l o w i n g d e f i c i e n c i e s i n e x i s t i n g t h e o r i e s of judgement: 1) The judgement t h e o r i e s d e s c r i b e d f a i l t o take i n t o account the e f f e c t s of u t i l i s i n g a l l t h r e e p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d i n the judgement process. 2) One of the th r e e judgement t h e o r i e s d e s c r i b e d does not address the n o t i o n of c o n t r i b u t i o n of d e l i b e r a t e a c t i v i t y o u t s i d e of the judgement s i t u a t i o n t o improvement i n judgemental e f f i c i e n c y . 3) One of the th r e e judgement t h e o r i e s d i s c u s s e d f a i l to account f o r taxonomies of judgement s t y l e or i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the use of judgmental h e u r i s t i c s . 16 4) The r e l a t i o n s h i p s between a f f e c t i v e v a r i a b l e s and those c o g n i t i v e v a r i a b l e s t h a t are r e l a t e d to judgement are a l l u d e d to but not s t r e s s e d as c e n t r a l components of the judgement process i n the three t h e o r e t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n s d e s c r i b e d . 5) The judgement t h e o r i e s d e s c r i b e d p o s i t t h a t c o g n i t i v e changes are n e g a t i v e l y motivated by c o n f l i c t ; t h e importance of schematic change t h a t i s p o s i t i v e l y motivated i s not addressed by these t h e o r i e s . Lewin's F i e l d Theory: Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e i n S o c i a l Psychology B l e u l e r (1912) drew the d i s t i n c t i o n between " l o g i c a l thinking...which corresponds to r e a l i t y , i s a r e p r o d u c t i o n i n thought of the connections which r e a l i t y o f f e r s . . . a n d a u t i s t i c thinking...(which) i s d i r e c t e d by s t r i v i n g s which d i s r e g a r d l o g i c and r e a l i t y . " Frank (1939) was a p p a r e n t l y the f i r s t t o d e f i n e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and t o d e l i n e a t e the p r o g r e s s i o n s i n time p e r s p e c t i v e that occur over the course of an i n d i v i d u a l ' s l i f e . He t i e d the n o t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n t o Lewin's f i e l d theory (Lewin, 1935) and noted the f a c t t h a t an i n d i v i d u a l may have d i f f e r i n g time p e r s p e c t i v e s i n d i f f e r e n t a s p e c t s of l i f e such as the economic, p o l i t i c a l and s o c i a l spheres. Frank suggested that temporal p e r s p e c t i v e can e f f e c t a r e t r o a c t i v e e f f e c t on behaviour. Frank s t a t e d that p e r c e p t i o n s of f u t u r e outcomes a f f e c t present b e h a v i o r . He d e s c r i b e d two types of i n d i v i d u a l s : one w i t h a remote f u t u r e p e r s p e c t i v e who e x h i b i t e d instrumental behaviour and another whose 'consummatory' behaviour 17 i n d i c a t e d a r e l a t i v e d i s r e g a r d f o r consequences. Frank (1939) spoke e l o q u e n t l y of the r o l e of e v o l u t i o n i n r e p u d i a t i n g the importance of the past i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of the f u t u r e : . . . c u r i o u s l y enough, human behaviour does change, d e s p i t e frequent a s s e r t i o n s to the c o n t r a r y and the p r o f e s s i o n a l demonstration of the unchanging mores, the ' r e s i d u e s ' and the ' d e r i v a t i o n s i n t h i s e v o l u t i o n a l l manners of A's (past events) have been found to be i r r e l e v a n t t o the f u t u r e events they were supposed to i n i t i a t e and new and unsuspected A's were r e v e a l e d as having c r i t i c a l importance. Only by r e p u d i a t i n g the past as a guide to the f u t u r e , by superseding a f u t u r e time p e r s p e c t i v e governed by the dimensions of the past, c o u l d t h i s t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o c c u r . (pp.302) Lewin (1948) composed a s h o r t chapter on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and morale that was to i n s p i r e n e a r l y a h a l f century of theory and r e s e a r c h on the t o p i c of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Lewin's conception s t r e s s e d the importance of d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between the i n d i v i d u a l ' s mature, r e a l i s t i c ' l e v e l of e x p e c t a t i o n ' and c h i l d i s h , u n r e a l i s t i c ' i r r e a l i t y l e v e l of wishes.' Lewin a s s e r t e d t h a t the concept of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e could be embedded i n h i s theory of f i e l d s or the l i f e - s p a c e of an i n d i v i d u a l to i n c l u d e not o n l y the present but the f u t u r e and the past. Lewin r e i n f o r c e d Frank's n o t i o n of a developmental p r o g r e s s i o n of expansion i n temporal p e r s p e c t i v e that was to l a t e r be c h a r a c t e r i z e d v i a P i a g e t i a n analogues as the p r o g r e s s i o n from sensorimotor to formal o p e r a t i o n a l thought ( I n h e l d e r & Piaget, 1958). Lewin d e s c r i b e d the r e l a t i o n s h i p between temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and morale and v a r i o u s p r o c e s s e s i n c l u d i n g p e r s i s t e n c y , d i s a g r e e a b l e s i t u a t i o n s , p r o d u c t i v i t y , 18 a s p i r a t i o n , g o a l d i s t a n c e and u n c e r t a i n t y concerning f u t u r e events. Lewin (1942) r e f e r r e d again b r i e f l y to the t o p i c with a commentary which suggested that the s o c i a l environment i n f l u e n c e s the i n d i v i d u a l ' s temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . I t i s p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r e s t i n g t h a t both Frank and Lewin were absorbed by t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l n o t i o n at a time when the world was caught up i n the p r o s p e c t i v e u n c e r t a i n t y of a world war. T h i s was a time of great a n t i c i p a t i o n and dread that focussed the i n t e r e s t of s o c i a l psychology on the impact of s o c i e t a l f o r c e s on the a n t i c i p a t o r y process. As Lewin (1948) notes i n a poignant p o s t s c r i p t t o h i s chapter: T h i s chapter was w r i t t e n before December 7, 1941;now we are at war. The e f f e c t on the morale of the country has been immediate and s t r i k i n g - a circumstance which bears out some of the p o i n t s we have d i s c u s s e d . Before December 7, what was a r e a l i s t i c outlook f o r one i n d i v i d u a l was doubted by a second and r i d i c u l e d as impossible by a t h i r d . Now the s i t u a t i o n has been c l a r i f i e d . Countless c o n f l i c t s , whether among f a c t i o n s of the p o p u l a t i o n or w i t h i n each i n d i v i d u a l h i m s e l f , have ceased now that the major aspects of the time p e r s p e c t i v e s are d e f i n i t e l y s e t . (pp.123) T h i s s e c t i o n of the l i t e r a t u r e review has e l a b o r a t e d p e r c e p t i o n of the importance of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e t o the understanding of human thought as e a r l y i n the h i s t o r y of s o c i a l psychology as i n Lewin's time. In the next s e c t i o n , the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of a t t r i b u t i o n theory t o the a n a l y s i s of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n w i l l be examined wi t h r e s p e c t to how the n o t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e might enhance these p r o p o s i t i o n s . 19 A t t r i b u t i o n Theory and-Judgement The three a t t r i b u t i o n a 1 t h e o r i e s o u t l i n e d below, Heider's theory of naive psychology, correspondent i n f e r e n c e theory and K e l l e y ' s model of a t t r i b u t i o n , address d i r e c t l y the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . The major t e n e t s of each theory are o u t l i n e d , f o l l o w e d by a s u b s e c t i o n of c r i t i c i s m s d e a l i n g with general inadequacies i n the understanding of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n that apply to a l l t h r e e t h e o r i e s . The f o l l o w i n g c r i t i c i s m s of a t t r i b u t i o n theory w i l l , be d i s c u s s e d : 1) A t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r y does not examine the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of c o n s i d e r a t i o n of imaginary events to the e v a l u a t i o n of cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s and the i m p l i c a t i o n s of such analyses f o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . 2) A t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r y does not i n v e s t i g a t e the c o n t r i b u t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n judgement s t y l e and the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . 3) A t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r y r e s e a r c h l a r g e l y n e g l e c t s the outcomes of v a r i o u s cause and e f f e c t analyses i n terms of achievement i n contexts r e q u i r i n g i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . Heider's Naive Psychology Heider (1958) p u b l i s h e d The Psychology of I n t e r p e r s o n a l  R e l a t i o n s i n which he attempted to e x p l i c a t e the processes i n v o l v e d i n the 'naive psychology' of everyday l i f e . Heider contended t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s develop t h e o r i e s about events around them and that these t h e o r i e s are e i t h e r supported or m o d i f i e d by ongoing o b s e r v a t i o n s . Heider contends t h a t a c t i o n i s r e l a t e d to a person's b e l i e f s or t h e o r i e s and that the understanding of behaviour i s i n e x t r i c a b l y l i n k e d t o the comprehension of an i n d i v i d u a l ' s t h e o r i e s about events. Heider i n d i c a t e d that these i n f o r m a l t h e o r i e s about events a l l o w the i n d i v i d u a l to f u n c t i o n a d a p t i v e l y i n the s o c i a l world. Heider proposed a set of axioms t h a t d e s c r i b e the manner i n which these t h e o r i e s are developed and operate: 1) Heider proposed t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s search f o r c a u s a t i o n i n the o b s e r v a t i o n of d a i l y events. I t i s important to note that s o c i a l p r e d i c t i o n , and consequently a c t i o n or outcome, i s . i n e x t r i c a b l y t i e d to a t t r i b u t i o n or causal i n f e r e n c e i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n p r o c e s s e s . I f a p a r t i c u l a r event i s a s s o c i a t e d with a p a r t i c u l a r cause then the i n d i v i d u a l w i l l tend to p r e d i c t t h a t event when the a s s o c i a t e d cause i s i n evidence ( c o v a r i a t i o n p r i n c i p l e ) . I t i s important to note that the data sources f o r such causal analyses are proposed to be a c t u a l experience r a t h e r than a c t u a l p l u s imagined experiences. 2) Heider t h e o r i s e d t h a t people p r e f e r t o a t t r i b u t e c a u s a t i o n to s t a b l e or enduring d i s p o s i t i o n a l or permanent s i t u a t i o n a l causes r a t h e r than to u n s t a b l e causes, thereby i n c r e a s i n g p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of behaviour. Heider d i d not address the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s may d i f f e r i n the tendency to engage i n t h i s s t y l e of a t t r i b u t i o n . The c o n s i d e r a t i o n of i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h i s s t y l e of a t t r i b u t i o n i s important. T h i s importance l i e s i n Heider's c o n t e n t i o n that 21 environmental and d i s p o s i t i o n a l f o r c e s are h y d r a u l i c a l l y r e l a t e d i n the p r o d u c t i o n of a c t i o n . If t h i s i s the t r u e s t a t e of c a u s a l i t y then i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the r e c o g n i t i o n of t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p would have profound i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r a t t r i b u t i o n and, t h e r e f o r e , i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . Correspondent Inference Theory and Judgement Jones and Davis (1965) expanded upon Heider's n o t i o n of naive psychology by pr o p o s i n g correspondent i n f e r e n c e t h e o r y . There are s e v e r a l p r i n c i p l e concepts that are d e f i n e d i n t h i s theory: 1) Correspondent i n f e r e n c e theory proposes that correspondent i n f e r e n c e occurs when an observer i n f e r s another i n d i v i d u a l ' s p e r s o n a l i t y t r a i t s ( d i s p o s i t i o n s ) and t h e r e f o r e i n t e n t i o n s from t h a t i n d i v i d u a l ' s behaviour. I t i s important to note t h a t sources of in f o r m a t i o n f o r c a u s a l analyses are, as i n Hei d e r ' s o r i g i n a l p r o p o s i t i o n , s t i l l r e s t r i c t e d to a c t u a l or past-based data. 2) Correspondent i n f e r e n c e theory o u t l i n e s the importance of c o n s i d e r a t i o n of consequences of chosen and non-chosen a c t s the assessment of d i s p o s i t i o n a l a t t r i b u t i o n . I f the a c t o r has a low amount of choice between a c t i v i t i e s then the observer cannot e a s i l y i n f e r i n t e n t i o n from behaviour. An important c o r o l l a r y of t h i s axiom s t a t e s t h a t a p e r c e i v e r cannot be sure which e f f e c t was intended i f a c t i o n s have many d i f f e r e n t consequences (Ajzen & Holmes, 1976; Newton, \ 22 1974). I t may be proposed t h a t the p e r c e p t i o n of c h o i c e between a c t i v i t i e s i s to some degree dependent on the observer's r e p e r t o i r e of a l t e r n a t e choices f o r a c t i o n . T h i s i s important f o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n as the l e s s the p e r c e i v e d choice f o r a c t o r behaviour, the more d i s p o s i t i o n a l the a t t r i b u t i o n and the l e s s r e c o g n i t i o n of the i n t e r a c t i o n between person and environment i n the p r o d u c t i o n of a c t i o n on the p a r t of the observer.' T h i s t h e s i s p o s i t s t h a t the p e r c e p t i o n of a l t e r n a t e c h o i c e s , and subsequent r e d u c t i o n i n unidimensional d i s p o s i t i o n a l c a u s a l assessment, may be expanded through GIOA. 3) Correspondent i n f e r e n c e theory s t a t e s that correspondent i n f e r e n c e s are made from non-normative behaviours (Jones & H a r r i s , 1967). Jones and M c G i l l i s (1976) d e s c r i b e d an expansion upon correspondent i n f e r e n c e theory i n which i t was proposed that correspondence i s a measure of the p r o b a b i l i t y of i n f e r r i n g d i s p o s i t i o n from a behaviour. Jones and M c G i l l i s i n d i c a t e d t h a t behaviours t h a t r e s u l t e d i n a d i s c o n f i r m a t i o n of e x p e c t a n c i e s produced a g r e a t amount of correspondence. T h i s was due to the f a c t t h at correspondence was proposed to be synonymous with the amount of i n f o r m a t i o n gained concerning the p r o b a b i l i t y of a d i s p o s i t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e . I t may be p o s i t e d that the i n d i v i d u a l tendency to view d i s c o n t i n u e d e x p e c t a t i o n s as person by s i t u a t i o n i n t e r a c t i o n s r a t h e r than being due to d i s p o s i t i o n a l causes has s i g n i f i c a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r 23 success i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . The importance of examination of i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i s not a c e n t r a l concern of a t t r i b u t i o n theory. 4) Correspondent i n f e r e n c e theory proposes t h a t causal assessment can be a f f e c t e d by anything which causes a t t e n t i o n to be focussed on a p o t e n t i a l cause (McArther & Post, 1977; McArthur & Solomon, 1978). A t t e n t i o n appears to ex e r t a s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e on a t t r i b u t i o n and subsequent p r e d i c t i o n s . K e l l e y ' s A t t r i b u t i o n Model and Judgement K e l l e y (1967) co n s t r u c t e d a cube of the normative model of causal a n a l y s i s f o r which the p r i n c i p l e i n t e n t was to a s c e r t a i n the process by which i n d i v i d u a l s assess the v a l i d i t y of event impressions. S p e c i f i c a l l y , K e l l e y attempted to address the tendency of the observers i n general t o a t t r i b u t e the event i n qu e s t i o n t o s i t u a t i o n a l or d i s p o s i t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . K e l l e y proposed t h a t such assessments were of a s s i s t a n c e to the observer i n j u d ging whether inf o r m a t i o n or judgements about the event were v a l i d . K e l l e y o u t l i n e d three dimensions of observer assessment: 1) D i s t i n c t i v e n e s s : the degree t o which e f f e c t occurs p r i m a r i l y i n presence of one causal candidate and not i n presence of o t h e r s . 2) C o n s i s t e n c y : the degree to which the e f f e c t i s observed r e l i a b l y when a p a r t i c u l a r causal c a n d i d a t e i s present 3) Consensus: the degree to which people o t h e r than the t a r g e t a c t o r show the e f f e c t . 24 I n d i v i d u a l s must respond to each of these i n a s s e s s i n g causal i n f l u e n c e ( K e l l e y , 1967, 1972a, 1972b, 1973; McArthur, 1972; O r v i s et a l . , 1975; Weiner et a l . , 1972). I t i s important to note that d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s , c o n s i s t e n c y and consensus are a l l based on analyses of a c t u a l experience. K e l l e y does not address the p o s s i b i l i t y that imaginary experience can be a source of cause and e f f e c t a n a l y ses of non-experienced events, the products of which may be of u t i l i t y i n novel s i t u a t i o n s . Summary: The U t i l i t y of A t t r i b u t i o n a l Theory i n Terms of  I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n A t t r i b u t i o n a l t h e o r y has r e s u l t e d i n two important c o n t r i b u t i o n s to the understanding of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n : 1) A t t r i b u t i o n theory e x p l a i n s i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n of events that are h i g h l y s i m i l a r t o those i n the i n d i v i d u a l ' s e x p e r i e n t i a l r e p e r t o i r e through experience-based causal assessments. In o t h e r words, a t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r y addresses p r e d i c t i o n based on the a c t u a l , experienced event. 2) A t t r i b u t i o n theory addresses the n o t i o n that a t t e n t i o n a l processes can a f f e c t causal assessments. C r i t i c i s m s of A t t r i b u t i o n a l Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e  P r e d i c t i o n There are two major c r i t i c i s m s of a t t r i b u t i o n theory proposed i n t h i s t h e s i s : 1) A t t r i b u t i o n theory does not address the c o n t r i b u t i o n of imagined, p o s s i b l e events to i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . The major shortcoming of the three a t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r i e s i s that 25 cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s are determined s o l e l y on the b a s i s of past experience ( K e l l e y , 1967, 1972a, 1972b, 1973; McArthur, 1972; O r v i s et a l . , 1975; Weiner et a l . , 1972). The i n d i v i d u a l ' s a b i l i t y t o make use of imagined, p o s s i b l e events as well as a c t u a l past events i n the i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n process i s not addressed i n a t t r i b u t i o n theory. In other words, the i n d i v i d u a l i s not- p o s i t e d t o ref o r m u l a t e and manipulate event s c e n a r i o s to p r e d i c t a l t e r n a t i v e outcomes f o r the experienced cause and e f f e c t cues. M a n i p u l a t i o n of such cues c o u l d r e s u l t i n p r e p a r a t o r y , p o s s i b l e cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n memory. T h i s a c t i v i t y i s d e s c r i b e d as the GIOA process which i n a t t r i b u t i o n terms could be d e s c r i b e d as mental experimentation with c o n s i s t e n c e data from the source of imagination. The consequence of r e l y i n g e x c l u s i v e l y on past experience f o r causal a s s o c i a t i o n s i s that i f one c o n s i d e r s an event as a phenomenon t h a t i s r e l a t e d to both i n v a r i a n t person and v a r i a n t s i t u a t i o n a l causal o r i g i n (Heider, 1958; K e l l e y , 1972b) then even sma l l v a r i a t i o n s i n the presence of s i t u a t i o n a l causes can e s c a l a t e the number of p o t e n t i a l outcomes tremendously. The i n d i v i d u a l i s presumably l o o k i n g f o r the b e s t - f i t a l t e r n a t i v e outcome which i s not s u f f i c e d by a p p l y i n g past-based c a u s a l analyses e x c l u s i v e l y t o new combinations of s i t u a t i o n a l cues. 2) A t t r i b u t i o n theory does not examine the outcomes of v a r i o u s judgement s t r a t e g i e s i n terms of achievement i n i n t u i t i v e 26 p r e d i c t i o n . A t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r i e s purposely neglect the assessment of outcomes of v a r i o u s judgement s t y l e s i n the search f o r common f a c t o r s of cau s a l assessment and judgement pro c e s s e s . It may be proposed t h a t the comparison of s u p e r i o r judges with i n f e r i o r judges, i n other words the assessment of comparison by achievement outcome i n judgement conte x t s , may be u s e f u l i n d e t e r m i n i n g the s t y l e of judgement s t r a t e g i e s that lead t o s u p e r i o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . If one were t o ca s t t h i s p r o p o s i t i o n i n the terms of a t t r i b u t i o n theory, s u p e r i o r judges might be employing a s t y l e of a t t r i b u t i o n i n which use of f u t u r e o r imagination-based c o n s i s t e n c y , d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s and consensus i n f o r m a t i o n was i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o past-based analyses, w i t h i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r judgemental accuracy. Achievement as a c r i t e r i o n i s a necessary element of such an i n v e s t i g a t i o n . Ross and Anderson (1980) r e f e r r e d t o the small i n t e r e s t i n judgemental accuracy as a dependent v a r i a b l e i n most a t t r i b u t i o n s t u d i e s and i n d i c a t e d t h a t the number of outcome s t u d i e s i n a r e a l i s t i c judgement context were ve r y few. A t t r i b u t i o n theory p o s i t s that an understanding of judgement i s gained by d e l i n e a t i n g common or average judgement proce s s e s . The outcome of such processes i s of l i t t l e i n t e r e s t t o a t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r i s t s . Two important ideas can be addressed by examining.the achievement outcome of judgement processes: a) s u p e r i o r judges may be u t i l i s i n g q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t judgement processes than i n f e r i o r 27 judges; b) judgement processes that are not q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t between s u p e r i o r and i n f e r i o r judges may be ranked on a i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e process continuum with i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r judgemental accuracy. 3) A t t r i b u t i o n theory does not examine the importance of i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n a t t r i b u t i o n a 1 s t y l e . An example of a p o s s i b l e i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e construed as a u b i q u i t o u s phenomenon by a t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r i s t s i s the fundamental a t t r i b u t i o n e r r o r . The fundamental a t t r i b u t i o n e r r o r i s a tendency to o v e r - a t t r i b u t e behaviour to the a c t o r ' s d i s p o s i t i o n and to underemphasize powerful s i t u a t i o n a l determinants of behaviour ( A r k i n and Duval, 1975; Duval and Wicklund, 1972; Regan & T o t t e n , 1975; Ross. 1977; Ross & Anderson, 1980). Heider (1958) and K e l l e y (1972b) both s t a t e d that complex p a t t e r n s of c a u s a l i t y between person and environment f o r c e s are p o s s i b l e and, a c c o r d i n g l y , a t t r i b u t i o n t h e o r i s t s p o s i t e d that people engage i n dual assessments of person-environment c a u s a t i o n when a t t r i b u t i o n a 1 accuracy i s seen as important (Kassin & Hochreich, 1977). I t i s suggested i n t h i s t h e s i s that the tendency to r e c o g n i z e the importance of the person-environment i n t e r a c t i o n may be conceived as an i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e . T h i s a b i l i t y of the observer to p e r c e i v e the p o s s i b i l i t y that a c t o r s can behave d i f f e r e n t l y / i n very s i m i l a r contexts may not on l y be r e l a t e d to s i t u a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as importance of j 28 a t t r i b u t i o n s , but a l s o to s t y l i s t i c d i f f e r e n c e s . T h i s view of the observer as an a c t i v e construer of p o s s i b l e outcomes, r a t h e r than a responder to a c t u a l outcomes, d i s t i n g u i s h e s the observer i n a t t r i b u t i o n theory from the observer i n the model presented i n t h i s t h e s i s . The important idea t o keep i n mind i s that s i t u a t i o n a l c o m p l e x i t i e s r e s u l t i n constant i n a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of past-based models (Abelson, 1976). Overuse of past-based causal analyses of c o n s i s t e n c y , d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s and consensus i n f o r m a t i o n do not a s s i s t the observer i n ever-changing judgement t a s k s . The tendency t o u t i l i s e consensus, d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s and c o n s i s t e n c y i n f o r m a t i o n may be conceived as an i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e . In l a y terms, K e l l e y ' s p r o p o s i t i o n of parameters of event i n t e r p r e t a t i o n may be expressed i n the f o l l o w i n g manner: 1) do a l l i n d i v i d u a l s a c t the same way i n t h i s event (consensus); 2) does the t a r g e t a c t o r behave t h i s way i n a l l s i m i l a r events ( d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s ) ; 3) does the t a r g e t a c t o r always behave t h i s way d u r i n g t h i s event ( c o n s i s t e n c y ) . One of the major c o n t r o v e r s i e s concerning K e l l e y ' s work has ce n t e r e d around the r o l e of consensus i n f o r m a t i o n i n a t t r i b u t i o n . The f o l l o w i n g f i n d i n g s have been made on the use of consensus i n f o r m a t i o n : 1) th e r e i s l i t t l e evidence t h a t consensus has a large e f f e c t on a t t r i b u t i o n (McArthur, 1972, 1976; N i s b e t t & Borgida, 1975); 2) when the sample i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the p o p u l a t i o n people use consensus i n f o r m a t i o n (Wells & Harvey, 1977); 3) judgements of s t i m u l i the person has experienced d i r e c t l y are l e s s a f f e c t e d by consensus i n f o r m a t i o n (Feldman et a l . , 1976; T y l e r , 1980); 4) people who f e e l u n c e r t a i n of t h e i r judgements may welcome consensus i n f o r m a t i o n ( K u l i k & T a y l o r , 1980). I t i s apparent that much of the r e s e a r c h has centered on s i t u a t i o n a l e f f e c t s on consensus, d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s and c o n s i s t e n c y . I t seems that an i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the p e r c e p t i o n t h a t a c t o r s can behave d i f f e r e n t l y i n the same contexts, with i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n a b i l i t y , might be of u t i l i t y . Indeed, i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the use of consensus i n f o r m a t i o n may d i s t i n g u i s h h i g h and low a c h i e v e r s i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , i t may be p o s i t e d that the lack of a b i l i t y to imagine v a r i a t i o n s i n behaviour ac r o s s i n d i v i d u a l s i n s i m i l a r events would be a h i g h l y non-adaptive and perhaps unusual s t y l e of p r o c e s s i n g e x p e r i e n t i a l i n f o r m a t i o n . T h i s lack of a d a p t a b i l i t y might e x p l a i n the l a c k of robust f i n d i n g s on the use of consensus i n f o r m a t i o n i n causal analyses. T h i s s e c t i o n of the l i t e r a t u r e review has concentrated on the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of a t t r i b u t i o n theory t o the understanding of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . In the next s e c t i o n , the major c o n t r i b u t i o n s of c o g n i t i v e t h e o r i e s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d and how the notion of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e might enhance the c o n c e p t u a l i s a t i o n of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n p r o v i d e d by these, t h e o r i e s . 30 •» C o g n i t i v e Theory of Schemas and Judgement The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n on c o g n i t i v e schema as i t a p p l i e s to i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s presented i n an e f f o r t to address the f o l l o w i n g concepts: 1) Schema theory n e g l e c t s the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of f u t u r e or imagination based data sources to the a s s o c i a t i v e networks of schemas and s c r i p t s . 2) Schema theory de-emphasizes the contexts and c o n d i t i o n s under which judgemental h e u r i s t i c s can be h i g h l y e f f i c i e n t and adaptive modes of p r o c e s s i n g i n f o r m a t i o n . 3) Schema theory does not examine the importance of achievement s t u d i e s i n judgement contexts as guides t o fundamental d i f f e r e n c e s between low and h i g h a c h i e v e r s i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . C o g n i t i v e schema theory ( K e l l e y , 1972b) i s based on two fundamental concepts: 1) Schemas are mental r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of a c t u a l events that a s s i s t i n the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n and the guidance of behaviour. C o g n i t i v e theory was u n i t e d w i t h a t t r i b u t i o n theory when K e l l e y (1972b) i n t r o d u c e d the idea of a causal schema to a t t r i b u t i o n theory. N e i s s e r (1976) i n d i c a t e d t h a t the schema c o n s t r u c t i s a cornerstone of p s y c h o l o g i c a l theory. Many authors (Berne, 1964; Cantor, 1990; Goffman, 1959) have made the p o i n t t h a t events i n the phenomenal world are never approached s u i g e n e r i s but are a s s i m i l a t e d i n t o p r e - e x i s t i n g s t r u c t u r e s i n the mind of the 31 p e r c e i v e r . K e l l e y (1972b) proposed that i n d i v i d u a l s make use of the concept t h a t schematic s u f f i c i e n c y and n e c e s s i t y are important i n the i n d i v i d u a l ' s d e t e r m i n a t i o n of c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s . K e l l e y s p e c i f i e d two types of schemas: a) 'Single necessary cause schemas' i n which the e x i s t e n c e of the e f f e c t c a r r i e s w i t h i t the c e r t a i n t y that a p a r t i c u l a r cause was present; b ) ' m u l t i p l e s u f f i c i e n t cause schemas' i n which the e x i s t e n c e of the e f f e c t i m p l i e s the p o s s i b i l i t y of s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t causes. Note that both types of schematic r e p r e s e n t a t i o n are proposed to be based on a c t u a l experience, i n f a c t , a r e t r o s p e c t i v e a n a l y s i s . S c r i p t s are the type of schema which i s r e f e r r e d to i n t h i s t h e s i s as IOA or images-of-achievement. A s c r i p t i s a p a r t i c u l a r type of schema i n which the r e l a t e d elements are s o c i a l o b j e c t s i n v o l v i n g the i n d i v i d u a l as a c t o r or observer (Abelson, 1976; Schank & Abelson, 1977). U n l i k e schemas, which are s t a t i c networks of a s s o c i a t i o n s , s c r i p t s are event sequences extended over time. S c r i p t r e l a t i o n s h i p s have a d i s t i n c t l y causal f l a v o u r , t h a t i s , events e a r l y i n the s c r i p t produce or at l e a s t enable l a t e r events. Tracks are v a r i a t i o n s on s c r i p t v a r i a b l e s , f o r example, w i t h i n the r e s t a u r a n t s c r i p t . t h e w a i t e r v a r i a b l e can i n c l u d e the v a r i a t i o n s of s u r l y or p o l i t e . GIOA i s p o s i t e d to increase the number of t r a c k s a v a i l a b l e to the o b s e r v e r . S c r i p t s can be h i g h l y a b s t r a c t and owe t h e i r e x i s t e n c e o n l y s l i g h t l y to personal experience which i s an important p r o p o s i t i o n of the GIOA pr o c e s s . 32 However, the conception of personal experience i n t h i s t h e s i s r e f e r s to the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of imagined experience r a t h e r than v i c a r i o u s e x p e r i e n c e (Nisbett & Ross, 1980). S c r i p t s have the important p r o p e r t y of r e n d e r i n g new events r e a d i l y comprehensible and p r e d i c t a b l e . The cost of t h i s p r e - s t r u c t u r i n g of i n f o r m a t i o n i s the p o s s i b i l i t y of erroneous event i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s , i n a c c u r a t e e x p e c t a t i o n s and i n f l e x i b l e modes of response ( N i s b e t t & Ross, 1980). Cantor and M i s c h e l (1977), f o r example, showed the b i a s i n g e f f e c t s of schemas or pro t o t y p e s on i n t e r p r e t a t i o n on ambiguous in f o r m a t i o n . Markus (1977) showed how the speed of p r o c e s s i n g i n f o r m a t i o n about the s e l f i s enhanced by the presence of a self-schema. I t appears that a process which would guard a g a i n s t p r e d i s p o s i n g an i n d i v i d u a l to i n t e r p r e t events based on a c t u a l experience r a t h e r than imagined p o s s i b i l i t i e s would be of use. T h i s i s i n f a c t the process proposed by the GIOA p r o c e s s . Schematic r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of a c t u a l events are s u b j e c t to a s e r i e s of h e u r i s t i c b i a s e s and e r r o r s . Kahneman and Tversky (1972, 1973) have o u t l i n e d a theory of s o c i a l judgement i n which i n d i v i d u a l s attempting t o make i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n s r e l y upon i n f o r m a t i o n drawn from processes that do not f o l l o w the g u i d e l i n e s of normative s t a t i s t i c a l axioms. N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) compare t h i s t o the 33 normative process followed i n the course of s c i e n t i f i c i n q u i r y : The s c i e n t i s t o f t e n needs to observe c o v a r i a t i o n between events.and to measure the magnitude of the c o v a r i a t i o n i n terms of some d e f i n e d c r i t e r i o n . I f p o s s i b l e , p r i n c i p l e s or t h e o r i e s capable of c a u s a l l y e x p l a i n i n g the c o v a r i a t i o n are formulated. The observed c o v a r i a t i o n and the p o s t u l a t e d causal e x p l a n a t i o n s are then used as the b a s i s f o r p r e d i c t i n g f u t u r e events. For the formal s c i e n t i s t , a l l three t a s k s are governed by f i x e d s t a t i s t i c a l and l o g i c a l p r i n c i p l e s , (pp.9) Note t h a t the pe r c e p t i o n of c o v a r i a t i o n between events i s based on analyses of past behaviours w i t h the attendant i m p l i c a t i o n s of d e f i c i e n c y i n judgemental accuracy (Abelson, 1976). Kahneman and Tversky (1972, 1973) r e f e r to a set of e r r o r s i n the inference process that are proposed to c o n t r i b u t e t o inaccurate s o c i a l p r e d i c t i o n v i a the f a u l t y a s c r i p t i o n of causation by the i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t o r . These are d e s c r i b e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n . E f f e c t s of Use of H e u r i s t i c s on Judgement Knowledge s t r u c t u r e s . I n f e r e n t i a l e r r o r s can be t r a c e d back to the tendency to overuse i n t u i t i v e , i n f e r e n t i a l s t r a t e g i e s , or schemas (Piaget, 1936) about the behaviour of other i n d i v i d u a l s , and to underuse formal, s t a t i s t i c a l s t r a t e g i e s (Nisbett & Ross, 1980). N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) suggest t h a t the use of h e u r i s t i c s i s g e n e r a l l y automatic, n o n - r e f l e c t i v e and notably f r e e of any conscious c o n s i d e r a t i o n of ap p r o p r i a t e n e s s . Meehl (1955), S l o v i c and L i c h t e n s t e i n (1971), and Dawes and 3 4 Co r r i g a n (1974) found the a c t u a r i a l method equal or s u p e r i o r to c l i n i c a l judgements. In c o n t r a s t t o t h i s p o i n t of view, Cohen (1981) has s a i d t h a t normative theory i s a c c e p t a b l e only so f a r as i t accords w i t h the evidence of untutored i n t u i t i o n which has set i t ' s own standards. Cohen suggests that normative t h e o r i e s should not be taken as d e f i n i t i v e models. Lobo and N a i r (1990) have found that the combination of s t a t i s t i c a l and judgemental or non-normative f o r e c a s t s i s s u p e r i o r to e i t h e r type alone. In summary, the l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l s t h a t there i s some c o n t r o v e r s y over the u t i l i t y of i n d i v i d u a l knowledge s t r u c t u r e s . I t i s proposed i n t h i s t h e s i s that the type of event being p r e d i c t e d , usual or unusual, determines the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of the p r e d i c t i o n paradigm. In contexts such as s o c i a l behaviour, which i s the context of the c u r r e n t study, normative o r past-based paradigms may prove inadequate i n the face of complex i n t e r a c t i o n s between person and environment (Heider, 1958; K e l l e y , 1972b). Knowledge s t r u c t u r e s or schemas are i n f l u e n c e d by two major judgemental h e u r i s t i c s , a v a i l a b i l i t y and r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s , which a f f e c t which schemas w i l l be aroused (Higgens, Roles & Jones, 1977; H o r n s t e i n , 1975; N i s b e t t & Ross, 1980). These h e u r i s t i c s are d e s c r i b e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n . R e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s h e u r i s t i c . The r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s h e u r i s t i c r e f e r s t o the tendency to a s s i g n an event to a c e r t a i n category due to i t s s i m i l a r i t y to other o b j e c t s i n t h a t category. N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) s t a t e that t h i s h e u r i s t i c i s problematic 35 because i t i s invoked without r e g a r d to the more no r m a t i v e l y a p p r o p r i a t e method of a s s e s s i n g r e l a t i v e f r e q u e n c i e s of the category i n the p o p u l a t i o n under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . The layperson appears w i l l i n g to d i s r e g a r d base-rate i n f o r m a t i o n when then i s an o p p o r t u n i t y to use any o t h e r s t r a t e g y . Kahneman and Tversky (1972, 1973) a s s e r t that t h e r e i s an o v e r c o n t r i b u t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n d e r i v e d from c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of the event i n q u e s t i o n i n the f o r m u l a t i o n of schemas. I t i s proposed i n t h i s t h e s i s t h a t r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s can be a h i g h l y u s e f u l t o o l i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i f the GIOA process i s used by the observer to i n c r e a s e the d i a g n o s t i c i t y of present s i t u a t i o n a l cues through the g e n e r a t i o n and mental d i a g n o s t i c t e s t i n g of novel s i t u a t i o n a l s c e n a r i o s . In t h i s l i g h t , r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s becomes a h i g h l y e f f i c i e n t t o o l . A v a i l a b i l i t y h e u r i s t i c . Schema f o r m u l a t i o n i s a l s o s u b j e c t to the a v a i l a b i l i t y h e u r i s t i c which i s used t o judge the frequency and l i k e l i h o o d of events and event r e l a t i o n s . The a v a i l a b i l i t y h e u r i s t i c i s a process by which judgement concerning the p r o b a b i l i t y of an event i s p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d to the a v a i l a b i l i t y of t h a t event i n memory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). The e r r o r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s h e u r i s t i c i s that f a c t o r s t h a t are not t r u l y v a l i d as evidence i n f l u e n c e a v a i l a b i l i t y i n memory, such as v i v i d n e s s . I f a person r e l i e s upon the sample generated by personal experience, he w i l l be m i s l e d about o b j e c t i v e f r e q u e n c i e s . N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) provide the example of s u b j e c t i v e assessments of words beginning with the l e t t e r 1 r ' 36 versus words with ' r ' as the t h i r d l e t t e r . I n d i v i d u a l s can more r e a d i l y generate the f i r s t type of word and, although o b j e c t i v e f r e q u e n c i e s do not correspond w i t h t h i s impression, s u b j e c t i v e l y e v a l u a t e the p r i o r word type as more frequent. In t h i s t h e s i s , i t i s proposed that GIOA i n c r e a s e s the a v a i l a b i l i t y of both r a r e and common events, thereby maximally preparing the obs e r v e r f o r as many outcomes as p o s s i b l e i n a c o n s t a n t l y changing environment (Frank, 1939). The GIOA process a l l e v i a t e s s e v e r a l of the problems with a v a i l a b i l i t y proposed by N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) o u t l i n e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n . F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g A v a i l a b i l i t y H i n d s i g h t knowledge. Research has been conducted on the s u b j e c t i v e c e r t a i n t y of h i n d s i g h t knowledge ( F i s c h o f f . 1975; F i s c h o f f & Beyth, 1975). Outcomes i n r e t r o s p e c t o f t e n seem to have been i n e v i t a b l e . T h i s may be because the antecedents and causal s c e n a r i o s that p r e d i c t e d such outcomes have f a r g r e a t e r a f t e r the f a c t a v a i l a b i l i t y than do antecedents or s c e n a r i o s that p r e d i c t e d a l t e r n a t i v e outcomes t h a t d i d not i n f a c t o c c u r . I t appears t h a t an i n v e s t i g a t i o n of a process such as GIOA t h a t enhances the a v a i l a b i l i t y of imaginary s c e n a r i o s c o u l d counteract the e f f e c t s of h i n d s i g h t knowledge. N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) suggest that p e r c e p t u a l s a l i e n c e , memorability and i m a g i n a b i 1 i t y may be r e l a t i v e l y unbiased and t h e r e f o r e s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d with t r u e frequency. GIOA i s p o s i t e d to decrease s a l i e n c e e f f e c t s by the c o n s i d e r a t i o n and e l a b o r a t i o n of n o n - s a l i e n t cues. GIOA i s a l s o p o s i t e d to increase memorability and i m a g i n a b i 1 i t y of non-o c c u r r i n g a l t e r n a t i v e outcomes v i a the r e h e a r s a l process. Concrete or v i v i d knowledge. P o t e n t i a l events which do not occur have low e f f e c t on people's i n f e r e n c e s (Nisbett & Ross, 1980). Information that i s more concrete and imaginable i n images r a t h e r than words promotes r e c o g n i t i o n and r e c a l l (Gehring et a l . , 1976; P a i v i o , 1971; Shepard, 1967; Standing, Conezio, & Haber, 1970). Information that i s more memorable i s more a v a i l a b l e f o r i n c o r p o r a t i o n i n t o i n f e r e n c e s . Hamill et a l . (1979) showed t h a t a s i n g l e v i v i d i n s t a n c e can i n f l u e n c e s o c i a l a t t i t u d e s when p a l l i d s t a t i s t i c s of f a r g r e a t e r e v i d e n t i a l v a l u e do not. I t i s p o s i t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s t h a t GIOA f u n c t i o n s by i n c r e a s i n g the v i v i d n e s s of low-impact events i n memory or non-o c c u r r i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s thereby i n c r e a s i n g the a v a i l a b i l i t y of b e s t - f i t s c e n a r i o s f o r i n d i v i d u a l s i t u a t i o n s . C o n f l i c t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n . Overconfidence (Einhorn & Hogarth, 1978; F i s c h o f f et a l . , 1977; Goldberg. 1959; Oskamp, 1965) leads the lay s c i e n t i s t to stop s e a r c h i n g as soon as a p l a u s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n i s adduced. Snyder and Cantor (1979) found t h a t memory searches favour h y p o t h e s i s - c o n f i r m i n g evidence even when the h ypothesis i s merely a t e n t a t i v e one. H a s t i e and Kumar (1979) r e p o r t e d t h a t s u r p r i s i n g or incongruent events may be attended to and s t o r e d i n memory more than expected o r h y p o t h e s i s - c o n f i r m i n g events. Many r e s e a r c h e r s have found t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s tend to c l i n g to e x i s t i n g hypotheses (Darley & F a z i o , 1980; N i s b e t t & Ross, 1980; Ross et a l . , 1975; Snyder & Swann, 38 1978; Snyder, et a l . . 1977; T a y l o r & Crocker. 1981). A process such as GIOA could be v i s u a l i s e d as an i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e i n attempts to overcome the tendency to stop improving event e x p l a n a t i o n s , thereby i n c r e a s i n g the chances of f i n d i n g a b e s t -f i t r a t h e r than j u s t a d e q u a t e - f i t event e x p l a n a t i o n . Summary: The U t i l i t y of Schema Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e  P r e d i c t ion Several axioms of schema theory have d i r e c t b e a r i n g on the understanding of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n p r o v i d e d i n t h i s t h e s i s : 1) Schema theory emphasises the c o n t r i b u t i o n of c o g n i t i v e work completed p r i o r to the judgement s i t u a t i o n on i n f o r m a t i o n -p r o c e s s i n g w i t h i n the s i t u a t i o n . 2) Schema theory o u t l i n e s the e f f e c t of p e r c e p t i o n f a c t o r s such as on v i v i d n e s s , concreteness and s a l i e n c e of judgement o b j e c t s on i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . 3) Schema theory i l l u m i n a t e s the need to take i n t o account systematic c o g n i t i v e b i a s e s i n the judgement process. C r i t i c i s m s of Schema Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n Schema theory may be c r i t i c i s e d f o r c e r t a i n reasons: 1) Schema theory f a i l s to c l o s e l y examine the u t i l i t y of judgemental h e u r i s t i c s . Kahneman and Tversky (1982) s t a t e d that i t i s o f t e n f a r from c l e a r whether these e f f e c t s s hould be t r e a t e d as e r r o r s or b i a s e s or whether they s h o u l d be . accepted as v a l i d elements of human experience. N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) concluded t h a t causal p e r c e p t i o n i s not an 39 i n h e r e n t l y f a u l t y c o g n i t i v e apparatus but r a t h e r , one t h a t m a nifests c e r t a i n e x p l i c a b l e flaws and that formal t r a i n i n g in s t a t i s t i c s can improve the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . I t may be proposed that judgmental h e u r i s t i c s have a f a r g r e a t e r u t i l i t y i n p a r t i c u l a r circumstances than suggested by Kahneman and Tversky and N i s b e t t and'Ross. T h i s t h e s i s i n v e s t i g a t e s the circumstances (use of GIOA) under which h e u r i s t i c s can be h i g h l y v a l u a b l e judgement t o o l s . Judgement v i a the u t i l i s a t i o n of judgemental h e u r i s t i c s may be- enhanced i f the circumstances d e s c r i b e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n apply. Rehearsal of event s c e n a r i o s . N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) r e f e r b r i e f l y to the concept t h a t use of the a v a i l a b i l i t y h e u r i s t i c may be p e r c e i v e d as a b e n e f i c i a l process. I f a v a i l a b i l i t y i s a c t u a l l y a s s o c i a t e d with o b j e c t i v e frequency, i n that p e r c e p t u a l or memorial s a l i e n c e of o b j e c t s i s not d i s t o r t e d by "factors i r r e l e v a n t to the pro b a b i 1 i t y . of t h e i r occurrence, a v a i l a b i l i t y can be a u s e f u l h e u r i s t i c . It i s suggested i n t h i s t h e s i s that GIOA i s a process by which many event s c e n a r i o s are me n t a l l y r e c o n s i d e r e d and r e c o n s t r u c t e d . GIOA may a f f e c t the a v a i l a b i l i t y of both common and uncommon s c e n a r i o s i n memory through the r e h e a r s a l process. The r e h e a r s a l process should c o n t r i b u t e t o g r e a t e r v i v i d n e s s , concreteness and a v a i l a b i l i t y of a v a r i e t y of both experienced and imagined s c e n a r i o s i n memory. 40 Optimal cue d i a g n o s t i c i t y . N i s b e t t and Ross' (1980) work has been c r i t i c i z e d on the grounds that the s u p p o r t i n g s t u d i e s lack e c o l o g i c a l v a l i d i t y (Cohen, 1981). It has been suggested that one of the d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h l a b o r a t o r y examinations of judgemental h e u r i s t i c s i s that the d i a g n o s t i c value of • p r e d i c t o r s i s a s s i g n e d f o r the s u b j e c t s , d e v o i d i n g the judgement process of the necessary t e s t i n g phase of a proposed 'hunch-then-test hunch' process' (Bowers et a l . , 1990). N i s b e t t and Ross s t a t e that when t a r g e t i n f o r m a t i o n i s h i g h l y d i a g n o s t i c , t h a t i s when c o v a r i a t i o n between t a r g e t f e a t u r e s and outcome c a t e g o r i e s i s v i r t u a l l y p e r f e c t , people's o v e r r e l i a n c e on r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s c r i t e r i o n may cost them very l i t t l e . I t may be proposed that r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s can be a h i g h l y u s e f u l t o o l i f cue d i a g n o s t i c i t y i s o p t i m a l . GIOA i s p o s i t e d to be a process by which optimal d i a g n o s t i c i t y can be a s c e r t a i n e d by the constant development and t e s t i n g of a l t e r n a t i v e judgements i n and out of the performance s i t u a t i o n . C o l l e c t i v e problem s o l v i n g . C o l l e c t i v e s o l v i n g of problems should produce i n f e r e n c e s b e t t e r than those of i n d i v i d u a l s working i n i s o l a t i o n through the process t h a t i n f e r e n t i a l shortcomings should cancel each other out to some" degree ( N i s b e t t & Ross, 1980). Schema theory underemphasises the c o n t r i b u t i o n of o t h e r ' s input to the process of d e v e l o p i n g schemas and s c r i p t s . . The emphasis i n 41 schema r e s e a r c h appears to be on the i n d i v i d u a l and on the concreteness. v i v i d n e s s and s a l i e n c e of that i n d i v i d u a l ' s past experience i n the development of schemas ( N i s b e t t & Ross, 1980). GIOA a c t i v i t y i s p o s i t e d to i n c l u d e r e f l e c t i o n upon and s o l i d i f y i n g i n memory of judgement a l t e r n a t i v e s provided by other i n d i v i d u a l s . Importance of achievement s t u d i e s . As w i t h a t t r i b u t i o n s t u d i e s , many of the schema s t u d i e s d e s c r i b e d above have centered around analyses of general t e n d e n c i e s without regard f o r performance outcomes. Kahneman and Tversky's (1972) study concerning the choice of i n d i v i d u a t i n g versus base-rate i n f o r m a t i o n i n judgement tasks i s p r o t o t y p i c a l of t h i s problem. The s u b j e c t ' s choice of h e u r i s t i c i s examined without a s s e s s i n g success i n p r e d i c t i o n as a f u n c t i o n of judgement s t r a t e g y . The fundamental assumption u n d e r l y i n g t h i s and many a t t r i b u t i o n s t u d i e s i s that the normative model i s the u l t i m a t e p r e d i c t i o n model and i n d i v i d u a l ' s judgement s t r a t e g i e s are assessed u s i n g the normative model as a g o l d s t a n d a r d . N i s b e t t and Ross (1980) i n d i c a t e that d i a g n o s t i c i n d i v i d u a t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n i s an acceptable a l t e r n a t i v e to base-rate i n f o r m a t i o n . I t may be suggested that e i t h e r use of h i g h l y d i a g n o s t i c i n f o r m a t i o n or a combination of base-r a t e and i n d i v i d u a t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n (Lobo & N a i r , 1990) i s a more promising judgement model than e i t h e r normative or h e u r i s t i c models alone. 42 Shortcomings of base-rate i n f o r m a t i o n . As w i t h a t t r i b u t i o n models, schema theory a s s e r t s that e i t h e r d i a g n o s t i c or base-rate i n f o r m a t i o n i s developed s o l e l y from past-based info r m a t i o n . The d i f f i c u l t i e s with u s i n g o n l y , past-based i n f o r m a t i o n sources have been d i s c u s s e d i n the preceding s e c t i o n on a t t r i b u t i o n theory. T h i s s e c t i o n has e l a b o r a t e d the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of c o g n i t i v e psychology to the understanding of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of d e c i s i o n theory t o the study of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n w i l l be d e s c r i b e d . Enhancement of d e c i s i o n theory v i a the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the n o t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e w i l l be d i s c u s s e d . D e c i s i o n Theory and Judgement The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n on d e c i s i o n theory as i t a p p l i e s to i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s presented i n an e f f o r t to address the f o l l o w i n g concepts: 1) D e c i s i o n theory does not address the u t i l i s a t i o n of the t r i a d of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s i n judgement. 2) D e c i s i o n theory d i s c u s s e s the n o t i o n that i n f o r m a t i o n -p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y c o n s t r a i n s d e c i s i o n q u a l i t y , but does not e l a b o r a t e the c o n t r i b u t i o n of work done o u t s i d e of the judgement context, to a r e d u c t i o n i n the i n f o r m a t i o n -processing- load. 3) D e c i s i o n theory does not address the c o n t r i b u t i o n of non-c o n f l i c t m o t i v a t i o n to judgemental accuracy. The d e c i s i o n problem i n v e s t i g a t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s i s of the i l l - d e f i n e d type. I l l - d e f i n e d d e c i s i o n s can be de s c r i b e d as those d e c i s i o n s f o r which the i n d i v i d u a l i s unable to a s s i g n s p e c i f i c p r o b a b i l i t i e s to outcomes (Howell & Burnett, 1978: Luce & R a i f f a . 1957). I l l - d e f i n e d d e c i s i o n s are common i n group and o r g a n i s a t i o n a l contexts. There are fou r g e n e r a l phases of the d e c i s i o n process that are common to t h i s category of d e c i s i o n t h e o r i e s : 1) problem r e c o g n i t i o n ; 2) i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s ; 3) e v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s ; 4) s e l e c t i o n of an a l t e r n a t i v e . Each w i l l be o u t l i n e d b r i e f l y . Problem r e c o g n i t i o n . R e c o g n i t i o n of a d e c i s i o n problem in v o l v e s the p e r c e p t i o n of d i s c r e p a n c i e s between an e x i s t i n g . s t a t e and a d e s i r e d s t a t e ( M i l l e r & S t a r r , 1967). I n d i v i d u a l s may monitor the environment f o r d i a g n o s t i c s i g n s that such d i s c r e p a n c i e s have occurred (Steinbruner, 1974). Mintzberg et a l . (1976) noted that problems must be s o r t e d out from environmental noise or non-relevant or d i a g n o s t i c cues. The d e c i s i o n maker scans the r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n to determine i f the cues promote an image of hi m s e l f e x p e r i e n c i n g personal setbacks, before moving on t o the phase of s u r v e y i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s ( J a n i s & Mann, 1977). I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s . A d e c i s i o n problem can be s t r u c t u r e d i n one of two ways: a) t h e o r y - d r i v e n : the problem i s assigned to a p a r t i c u l a r category on the b a s i s of problems faced i n the past, the category i s t y p i c a l l y r e t r i e v e d wholesale from memory and a p p l i e d with l i t t l e m o d i f i c a t i o n ; b) d a t a - d r i v e n : hypotheses are c o n s t r u c t e d and r e v i s e d on the b a s i s of incoming i n f o r m a t i o n with aspects unique to the s i t u a t i o n . I n d i v i d u a l s may at times use both processes i n s u c c e s s i o n (Schank & Abelson, 1977) . The category-matching process i s t y p i c a l of d e c i s i o n -makers wi t h a great amount of d o m a i n - s p e c i f i c knowledge (Go l d i n , 1978) . The use of s c r i p t s , or event sequences of a c t i o n s and outcomes, by p o l i t i c i a n s to i n t e r p r e t new i n t e r n a t i o n a l events p o l i t i c a l decision-making has been examined. D e c i s i o n theory views s c r i p t s as a means by which e f f i c i e n c y i n s t r u c t u r i n g d e c i s i o n problems can be i n c r e a s e d ( F i s k e & Kinder, 1980; Walker & Murphy, 1982). I n d i v i d u a l s l a c k i n g knowledge i n a domain w i l l tend to generate hypotheses i n an e f f o r t to e x p l a i n d e c i s i o n problems (Getty & F i s h e r , 1979). G e t t y and F i s h e r contend t h a t a r e c u r s i v e memory search i s i n i t i a t e d i f e x i s t i n g hypotheses do not meet a c e r t a i n p l a u s i b i l i t y l e v e l . New hypotheses that meet t h i s t h r e s h o l d are added to the c u r r e n t s e t . I t i s important t o note that d e c i s i o n theory d e s c r i b e s these processes as they o c c u r w i t h i n the judgement context. The development of a l t e r n a t i v e s has beert proposed to f o l l o w a continuum with one end c o n s i s t i n g of the search f o r ready-made a l t e r n a t i v e s and the other end r e p r e s e n t i n g the c o n s t r u c t i o n of custom-made a l t e r n a t i v e s (Alexander, 1979; Mintzberg et a l . , 1976). Newell and Simon (1972) have d e s c r i b e d the nature of the custom d e s i g n process as one i n which the d e c i s i o n maker w i l l m e n t a l l y t e s t v a r i o u s combinations of a l t e r n a t i v e s a g a i n s t p o s s i b l e attainment of g o a l s . Readings from v a r i o u s r e s e a r c h endeavours on d e c i s i o n theory have p r o v i d e d i n f o r m a t i o n concerning the circumstances that e l i c i t e i t h e r a s e a r c h or a design approach to problem-solving (Alexander, 1979; Beach & M i t c h e l l , 1978; Ben Zur & B r e z n i t z , 1981; G o l d i n , 1978; P i t z et a l . , 1980): 1) D e c i s i o n makers w i l l f o l l o w the l e a s t e f f o r t p r i n c i p l e and w i l l attempt to design novel s t r a t e g i e s only as a l a s t r e s o r t when search s t r a t e g i e s prove inadequate. 2) D e c i s i o n s that are s i g n i f i c a n t and i r r e v e r s i b l e are more l i k e l y t o e l i c i t custom-made a l t e r n a t i v e s . T h i s idea i s important to the study at hand due to the f a c t t h a t the judgements of o f f i c i a l s are h i g h l y p u b l i c , t h e r e f o r e presumably of high importance to the i n d i v i d u a l . P i l o t i n t e r v i e w s f o r t h i s t h e s i s r e v e a l e d a r e l u c t a n c e on the part of the o f f i c i a l to r e v e r s e d e c i s i o n s i n order t o a v o i d the appearance of i n d e c i s i v e n e s s . T h e r e f o r e i t may be proposed that custom-designing of a l t e r n a t i v e s , w i t h the attendant i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g c o n s t r a i n t s w i t h i n the s i t u a t i o n i s a s i g n i f i c a n t i s s u e f o r the judgement context examined i n t h i s t h e s i s . 3) D i f f e r e n t s t y l e s of i n f o r m a t i o n - g a t h e r i n g and p r o c e s s i n g w i l l r e s u l t i n a taxonomy of d e c i s i o n s t y l e s . P r e c e p t i v e i n d i v i d u a l s r e l y on p r e - e x i s t i n g schemas to guide i n f o r m a t i o n a c q u i s i t i o n and i n t e r p r e t i n f o r m a t i o n . Receptive i n d i v i d u a l s are s e n s i t i v e to the s t i m u l u s i t s e l f 46 and r e l y more upon d e s i g n d r i v e n a l t e r n a t i v e s . The importance of judgemental s t y l e i s examined i n d e c i s i o n theory. 4) The number of a l t e r n a t i v e s generated depends on the number of independent aspects of the d e c i s i o n problem that are p e r c e i v e d . T h i s concept i l l u m i n a t e s the need f o r examination of a t t e n t i o n a l or i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g c o n s t r a i n t s on judgement. 5) When the d e c i s i o n maker custom designs a l t e r n a t i v e s i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g c o n s t r a i n t s may l i m i t the number of a l t e r n a t i v e s to a small number. 6) Time pressure c o n s t r a i n s the i n d i v i d u a l t o a s m a l l number of more c a u t i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s . 7) A d e c i s i o n problem r e q u i r i n g an optimal r a t h e r than j u s t an adequate s o l u t i o n w i l l generate a g r e a t e r number of a l t e r n a t i v e s . It i s important t o note that many of the c o n s t r a i n t s on d e c i s i o n making i s an important part of d e c i s i o n t h e o r y and that examination of such c o n s t r a i n t s i s based on the premise that much of d e c i s i o n c o n s t r u c t i o n takes place w i t h i n the judgement context. In t h i s t h e s i s i t i s proposed t h a t s u p e r i o r judges u t i l i s e GIOA o u t s i d e of the judgement context t o reduce t h i s load and that t h i s approach t o judgement can be c o n s i d e r e d as a new taxonomic v a r i a t i o n . E v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s . E v a l u a t i o n can be con s i d e r e d 47 as a set of i t e r a t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of a l t e r n a t i v e s designed to reduce u n c e r t a i n t y . The d e c i s i o n maker c l a r i f i e s the c r i t e r i a by which to judge a l t e r n a t i v e s , and estimate the p r o b a b i l i t y of p a r t i c u l a r outcomes of v a r i o u s d e c i s i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s (McCall et al.., 1982). D e c i s i o n makers are o f t e n unsure of t h e i r a l t e r n a t i v e p references, a l t e r p r e f e r e n c e s i n the face of a c t u a l experience and apply p r e f e r e n c e s i n c o n s i s t e n t l y (Dyckman, 1981; F i s c h o f f et a l . , 1980). Note t h a t as w i t h the a t t r i b u t i o n and c o g n i t i v e t h e o r i e s presented a l t e r n a t i v e s m o d i f i c a t i o n i s prompted by a c t u a l experience alone. GIOA p o s i t s a s i m i l a r i t e r a t i v e process, but one which i n c l u d e s imaginary a l t e r n a t i v e s and which takes place o u t s i d e of the judgement context. S e l e c t i o n of an a l t e r n a t i v e . The s e l e c t i o n phase of decision-making i s p o s i t e d to be a s t r e s s f u l process i n that u n c e r t a i n t y may s t i l l remain concerning choice between h i g h l y s i m i l a r a l t e r n a t i v e s . The p o s t - d e c i s i o n a l phase i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by r e g r e t and d e c i s i o n - b o l s t e r i n g r e a c t i o n s (Soelberg, 1967). J a n i s and Mann (1977) termed t h i s a p e r i o d of ' a n t i c i p a t o r y r e g r e t ' i n which d e c i s i o n makers me n t a l l y p r o j e c t themselves i n t o an u n c e r t a i n f u t u r e . The authors a l s o contend t h a t c o n f l i c t i n t h i s phase i s r e l a t e d to such f a c t o r s as d e c i s i o n importance and i r r e v e r s i b i l i t y , and a l s o the q u a l i t y of p r e - d e c i s i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g . I t i s important to note t h a t d e c i s i o n theory p o s i t s t h a t c o n f l i c t i s the impetus f o r d e c i s i o n m o d i f i c a t i o n without c o n s i d e r a t i o n of p o s i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n s . 48 Fa c t o r s A f f e c t i n g Information G a t h e r i n g and I n t e g r a t i o n Several f a c t o r s have been proposed as i n f l u e n c e s on the f o u r stages of i l l - d e f i n e d d e c i s i o n theory: 1) D e c i s i o n t h e o r i s t s p o s i t t h a t p o s i t i v e instances of a concept are more r e a d i l y used by the decision-maker than negative instances.: c o n f i r m a t o r y reasoning i s based on an e a r l i e r P i a g e t i a n stage of re a s o n i n g than d i s c o n f i r m a t o r y r e a s o n i n g (Smedslund, 1963). T h i s concept i s s i m i l a r to "the n o t i o n of h i n d s i g h t knowledge d i s c u s s e d i n the s e c t i o n on c o g n i t i v e theory, with the same i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . 2) D e c i s i o n theory proposes the ' i l l u s i o n of v a l i d i t y ' (Einhorn & Hogarth, 1978) i n which i t i s s t a t e d t h a t , because data are not a v a i l a b l e on the p o t e n t i a l success of r e j e c t e d options, the d e c i s i o n maker w i l l tend t o overestimate the success r a t e of chosen o p t i o n s . C a r r o l l (1978) found that r e h e a r s a l of r e l e v a n t event s c e n a r i o s r e s u l t e d i n a tendency tended t o r a t e those s c e n a r i o s as more probable than unrehearsed event s c e n a r i o s . T h i s i s an important f u n c t i o n of GIOA but r a t h e r than j u s t r e h e a r s a l of experienced s c e n a r i o s , GIOA p o s i t s the r e h e a r s a l of novel s c e n a r i o s . 3) D e c i s i o n t h e o r i s t s s t a t e t h a t the process of e s t i m a t i n g expected f u t u r e values from past models i s dangerous due t o the f a c t that non-diagnostic f e a t u r e s of the present event may t r i g g e r a connection between past and present events 49 (Abelson, 1976). T h i s concept addresses the requirement f o r updating s c e n a r i o s but bases updates on ongoing experience r a t h e r than imaginary experience. 4) D e c i s i o n theory a s s e r t s that i n f o r m a t i o n overload a m p l i f i e s the use of s i m p l i f y i n g i n f o r m a t i o n a l b i a s e s (George, 1974). T h i s concept poi n t s out the p o s s i b l e u t i l i t y of the GIOA process t o judgement. Summary: the U t i l i t y of D e c i s i o n Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e  P r e d i c t i o n The review of the d e c i s i o n t h e o r y l i t e r a t u r e has r e s u l t e d i n the i l l u m i n a t i o n of s e v e r a l p o i n t s concerning the judgement process. These p o i n t s are as f o l l o w s : 1) D e c i s i o n theory addresses the n o t i o n that a taxonomy of d e c i s i o n s t y l e s i s p o s s i b l e . 2) D e c i s i o n theory emphasises the concept of e f f i c i e n c y r a t h e r than j u s t guidance i n schema use. 3) D e c i s i o n theory e l a b o r a t e s the n o t i o n of custom-designed a l t e r n a t i v e s and a l s o the circumstances that promote t h i s a c t i v i t y . 4) D e c i s i o n theory o u t l i n e s the importance of a t t e n t i o n a l processes, eg.the p e r c e p t i o n of p o s i t i v e i n s t a n c e s , t o the judgment process. 5) D e c i s i o n theory e l a b o r a t e s the n o t i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n -p r o c e s s i n g c o n s t r a i n t s on d e c i s i o n q u a l i t y . 6) D e c i s i o n theory emphasises the importance of e v a l u a t i o n or t e s t i n g of judgment a l t e r n a t i v e s . 50 7) D e c i s i o n theory addresses the n o t i o n of the i n f l u e n c e of s t r e s s , f o r example, time c o n s t r a i n t s , and importance of a c t i v i t y on judgement. 8) D e c i s i o n theory addresses the concept of the p o s s i b i l i t y of d i f f e r e n c e s i n achievement outcome r e l a t i v e t o v a r i o u s i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e judgement process v a r i a b l e s . C r i t i c i s m s of D e c i s i o n Theory i n Terms of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n I l l - d e f i n e d d e c i s i o n theory comes c l o s e r than the preceding t h e o r i e s o u t l i n e d i n d e s c r i b i n g the process of judgement o u t l i n e d i n t h i s t h e s i s . There are s e v e r a l c r i t i c i s m s of d e c i s i o n theory that are p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t to the t h e s i s problem. Importance of c o n s i d e r a t i o n of imaginary events. D e c i s i o n theory a s s e r t s that e s t i m a t i n g expected f u t u r e v a l u e s from past models i s dangerous due to the f a c t t h a t n o n - d i a g n o s t i c f e a t u r e s of the present event may t r i g g e r a c o n n e c t i o n between past and present events (Abelson, 1976). T h i s p r o p o s i t i o n presumably r e l a t e s to the idea t h a t d i a g n o s t i c i t y of p a r t i c u l a r cues a l t e r s over time and a p r i o r i t h e o r i e s developed w i t h these values of cue d i a g n o s t i c i t y become of l i t t l e u t i l i t y . The a d d i t i o n of the concept of d a t a - d r i v e n processes i n d e c i s i o n t h e o r y addresses t h i s d e f i c i e n c y . T h i s p r o p o s i t i o n , however, i s made more i n the s p i r i t of c o n s t r u i n g the s u p e r i o r decision-maker as a c o n s c i e n t i o u s attender to s i t u a t i o n a l cues t h a t lend lack of c r e d u l i t y to a p r i o r i t h e o r i e s , than to an a c t i v e r e f l e c t o r upon and d e s i g n e r of p o s s i b l e upcoming event s c e n a r i o s , as suggested by the GIOA process. In d e c i s i o n theory, the s u p e r i o r d e c i s i o n -maker i s engaging past and present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s maximally, the use of f u t u r e p e r s p e c t i v e i s not addressed. D e c i s i o n theory p o s i t s m o d i f i c a t i o n of a p r i o r i t h e o r i e s but, as with a t t r i b u t i o n and c o g n i t i v e theory, s t i l l bases m o d i f i c a t i o n on a c t u a l experience r a t h e r than a c t u a l experience plu s imagined, p o s s i b l e events. As s t a t e d p r e v i o u s l y i n c r i t i c i s m s of a t t r i b u t i o n and c o g n i t i v e t h e o r i e s , e x c l u s i v e use of base-rate inf o r m a t i o n i n p r e d i c t i o n leads to i n f e r i o r p r e d i c t i o n because s i t u a t i o n a l outcomes are m u l t i f a c t o r i a l i n o r i g i n and c o n t i n u a l l y e v o l v i n g with the changing environment. However, t h i s t h e s i s proposes t h a t a v a r i a t i o n of the d a t a - d r i v e n p r o c e s s that can be maximally u t i l i s e d by engaging t h i s process both i n and out of the d e c i s i o n context through GIOA. Reduction of i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g load. D e c i s i o n theory deals with the v a r i a b l e of 'number of a l t e r n a t i v e s generated' f o r a given d e c i s i o n problem ( J a n i s & Mann, 1977). The number of a l t e r n a t i v e s i s framed i n terms of l i m i t s i n i n f o r m a t i o n -p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y and i s d e f i n e d w i t h i n the parameters of the a c t u a l judgement c o n t e x t . The number of a l t e r n a t i v e s generated i s t h e r e f o r e n e c e s s a r i l y c o n s t r a i n e d by the number of independent aspects of the d e c i s i o n problem that are p e r c e i v e d , whether or not a l t e r n a t i v e s are custom-designed- which r e q u i r e s more c o g n i t i v e work, whether there are time pressure c o n s t r a i n t s on the i n d i v i d u a l , whether the d e c i s i o n problem r e q u i r i n g an optimal r a t h e r than j u s t an adequate s o l u t i o n (Alexander, 1979; Beach & M i t c h e l l . 1978: Ben Zur & B r e z n i t z . 1981: G o l d i n . 1978: P i t z et 52 a l . , 1980). D e c i s i o n theory f a i l s to take i n t o account the e f f e c t s of doing much of the custom-designing of a l t e r n a t i v e s (GIOA) o u t s i d e of the a c t u a l judgement context on i n f o r m a t i o n -p r o c e s s i n g load i n the d e c i s i o n s i t u a t i o n . Importance of p o s i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e . U n l i k e p r i o r t h e o r i e s d e s c r i b e d , d e c i s i o n theory does not suggest a p r e s e n t -o r i e n t e d c o n f l i c t e d s t a t e as the source of impetus t o engage i n decision-making, but r a t h e r a r e c o g n i t i o n that f u t u r e events may induce c o n f l i c t i f the i n d i v i d u a l does not engage i n the d e c i s i o n process ( J a n i s & Mann, 1977; M i l l e r & S t a r r , 1967). In t h i s r e s p e c t , d e c i s i o n theory p o s i t s the c o n f l i c t e d nature of the d e c i s i o n process but moves c o n f l i c t from the present i n t o c o n f l i c t f o r e c a s t i n the f u t u r e . As suggested i n pr e c e d i n g s e c t i o n s , i t i s a premise of t h i s t h e s i s that the d e s i r e t o prove o n e s e l f competent i n the environment i s a s u p e r i o r m o t i v a t i o n f o r decision-making. Competence m o t i v a t i o n (White, 1959, 1961) induces the i n d i v i d u a l to make d e c i s i o n e v a l u a t i o n s a g a i n s t an i n t e r n a l standard r a t h e r than a g a i n s t the censure of o t h e r i n d i v i d u a l s . I t i s comparison with i n t e r n a l standards which allows the i n d i v i d u a l to experiment i n the d e c i s i o n c o n t e x t , as f a i l u r e i s weighed only a g a i n s t i n t e r n a l standards and not a m p l i f i e d by exte r n a l c r i t i c i s m . Reduction i n s u s c e p t i b i l i t y t o c r i t i c i s m from without i s p o s i t e d to reduce anxiety and t h e r e f o r e to enhance the p e r c e p t i o n of s i t u a t i o n a l cues which i s e s s e n t i a l to the matching of s i t u a t i o n a l cues t o formulated a l t e r n a t i v e s (Ingram et a l . , 1987, 1988; Ingram & K e n d a l l . 1987). 53 Summary of L i t e r a t u r e Review Part One Part One of the l i t e r a t u r e review may be summarized wi t h the f o l l o w i n g p o i n t s : 1) One of the three judgement t h e o r i e s d e s c r i b e d f a i l t o take i n t o account the e f f e c t s of u t i l i s i n g a l l three p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d i n the judgement process. 2) One of the three judgement t h e o r i e s do not address the n o t i o n of c o n t r i b u t i o n of d e l i b e r a t e a c t i v i t y o u t s i d e of the judgement s i t u a t i o n to improvement i n judgemental e f f i c i e n c y . 3) Two of the three t h e o r i e s f a i l t o account f o r e i t h e r one o f : a) taxonomies of judgement s t y l e b) i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the use of judgmental h e u r i s t i c s . 4) The t h r e e t h e o r e t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n s d e s c r i b e d a l l u d e t o but do not s t r e s s as c e n t r a l components the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between a f f e c t i v e v a r i a b l e s and those c o g n i t i v e v a r i a b l e s that are r e l a t e d t o judgement. 5) The t h r e e t h e o r i e s d i s c u s s e d p o s i t t h a t c o g n i t i v e changes are motivated by c o n f l i c t ; t h e importance of p o s i t i v e l y m o t i v a t e d schematic change and the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r a t t e n t i o n a l processes e s s e n t i a l f o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s not s t r e s s e d by these t h e o r i e s . 54 L i t e r a t u r e Review Part Two: In f l u e n c e s on Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Part Two of the l i t e r a t u r e review i s concerned with the e l a b o r a t i o n of the ways i n which temporal p e r s p e c t i v e can be i n f l u e n c e d by p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e s . The o b j e c t i v e i n Part Two i s to e s t a b l i s h by means of su p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h t h a t temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s a mutable phenomenon, which i s an important p r o p o s i t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s , and which has i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r achievement i n judgement contexts. Current Concept D e f i n i t i o n s and Me t h o d o l o g i c a l Problems i n the Study of Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Recent r e s e a r c h on temporal p e r s p e c t i v e has concentrated p r i m a r i l y on the t o p i c of fut u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e with a r e l a t i v e d i s r e g a r d f o r the importance of past and present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s . T h i s i s r a t h e r i r o n i c c o n s i d e r i n g t h a t the major t h e o r i e s of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n d i s c u s s e d p r e v i o u s l y have emphasised past and present p e r s p e c t i v e s w i t h no c o n s i d e r a t i o n of f u t u r e p e r s p e c t i v e s . Lack of p a r i t y i n measurement and a u n i f i e d d e f i n i t i o n of the c o n s t r u c t ( s ) i n v o l v e d remain major h u r d l e s t o be overcome i n e m p i r i c a l v e r i d i f i c a t i o n of r e s e a r c h hypotheses (Gjesme, 1983). T h i s i s a longstanding problem i n the area. For example, s t u d i e s u s i n g the d i f f e r e n t techniques f o r the measurement of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e found d i s c r e p a n c i e s between scores of the same s u b j e c t s on t h i s c o n s t r u c t ( L e s s i n g , 1968). To f u r t h e r confuse matters there has been a s p l i n t e r i n g of the general concept of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n t o a myriad 55 of proposed s m a l l e r dimensions and p o t e n t i a l i n f l u e n c e s i n c l u d i n g temporal e x t e n s i o n ( l e n g t h of time over which thought i s p r o j e c t e d ) , temporal d e n s i t y (frequency of thoughts i n a p a r t i c u l a r past, present or fut u r e temporal zone), r e a l i s m ( r e a l i t y versus u n r e a l i t y of thought), p e r c e i v e d goal d i s t a n c e (distance of goal from present s i t u a t i o n ) and pessimism versus optimism (valence of time o r i e n t a t i o n ) (De Voider, 1979; K l i n e b e r g , 1968; Trommsdorf. 1983). The m u l t i p l e dimension p r o p o s i t i o n has been countered by a l i m i t e d i n t e r e s t i n pursuing the concept of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e as a unidimensional c o n s t r u c t ( D a l t r e y & Langer, 1984). D a l t r e y and Langer developed an 88 item inventory from 120 items which appeared to present a u n i d i m e n s i o n a l i t y of c o n s t r u c t when s u b j e c t e d to f a c t o r a n a l y s i s . Sanders' (1986) attempt to develop a s e l f - r e p o r t s c a l e to measure, among other t i m e - r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s , f u t u r e and past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e t y p i f i e s a longstanding problem concerning the v a l i d i t y of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s c a l e s . Through a combination of r a t i o n a l and f a c t o r a n a l y t i c methods, Sanders developed two 6-item s c a l e s r e f e r r i n g t o temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . The s c a l e s showed promise i n terms of d i s c r i m i n a b l e v a l i d i t y but as with many s t u d i e s i n the area, f a i l e d to attempt to r e l a t e s c a l e s with o b j e c t i v e c r i t e r i a of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . In f a c t , one of the most s t r i k i n g d e f i c i t s i n r e s e a r c h t o date has been a d i s r e g a r d f o r strenuous attempts at c r i t e r i o n v a l i d a t i o n of instruments. T h i s d e f i c i t provides an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r the 56 present t h e s i s to address the problem of c r i t e r i o n v a l i d i t y i n the c o n s t r u c t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e measures. U t i l i s e d t e s t s i n c l u d e such p u r p o r t e d l y o b j e c t i v e instruments as the c i r c l e s t e s t , events l i s t i n g , s t o r y techniques and a v a r i e t y of p i c t o r i a l time l i n e s and s e l f - r e p o r t t e s t s whose v a l i d r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the c o n s t r u c t under i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s i n q u e s t i o n (Trommsdorf & Lamb. 1975). What f o l l o w s i s a review of the most r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e i n order to assess the e m p i r i c a l advances i n the study of time o r i e n t a t i o n . I t may be noted t h a t temporal e x t e n s i o n and temporal p e r s p e c t i v e have been addressed i n the l i t e r a t u r e as r e l a t e d but separate e n t i t i e s . Some of the work on temporal e x t e n s i o n i s i n c l u d e d here because of t h e o r e t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s that bear upon the s u b j e c t of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . The Requirement f o r a Model of Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e In 1983, an e n t i r e volume of The I n t e r n a t i o n a l J o u r n a l of  Psychology was devoted to the t o p i c of the concept of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Trommsdorf (1983) commented t h a t s o c i a l experiences determine the k i n d of future temporal p e r s p e c t i v e an i n d i v i d u a l possesses and suggested that a f u n c t i o n a l model demonstrating the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c o g n i t i v e and person v a r i a b l e s and f u t u r e o r i e n t a t i o n i s r e q u i r e d . T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i l l u m i n a t e s the importance of r e s e a r c h on temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to the d i s c i p l i n e of s o c i a l psychology. She d i s c u s s e d the importance of such v a r i a b l e s as locus of c a u s a l i t y (Trommsdorf & 57 Lamb, 1975), the p e r c e i v e d a f f e c t i v e q u a l i t y of conceptions of the f u t u r e , and the m o t i v a t i o n a l aspect of f u t u r e c o n c e p t i o n s . Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and M o t i v a t i o n Gjesme (1983), the e d i t o r of t h i s s p e c i a l e d i t i o n of The  I n t e r n a t i o n a l J o u r n a l of Psychology, r e f e r r e d t o the f a c t t h a t the c o n s i d e r a t i o n of s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s as i n f l u e n c e s on temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s a r e l a t i v e l y new concept i n the area. Gjesme proposed that f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e must be d i s t i n g u i s h e d with r e s p e c t t o l a t e n t a b i l i t i e s and the degree of ar o u s a l of such l a t e n t a b i l i t i e s i n given s i t u a t i o n s t h a t may possess d i f f e r e n t i a l v a l u e - o r i e n t a t i o n s f o r the i n d i v i d u a l . S p e c i f i c a l l y , an i n d i v i d u a l may demonstrate a low f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e because he/she possesses a low l a t e n t a b i l i t y t o engage i n fu t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Conversely, low apparent f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s may be manifested i n s i t u a t i o n s f o r which the i n d i v i d u a l does not p l a c e much value on the f u t u r e outcome. Gjesme i n d i c a t e d t h a t narrowing the study of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e t o s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n s can l e s s e n the l i k e l i h o o d of a c c u r a t e l y gauging an i n d i v i d u a l ' s l a t e n t f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Gjesme proposes that the importance of a gi v e n a c t i v i t y to the i n d i v i d u a l w i l l be r e l a t e d t o the degree of a c c e n t u a t i o n of the e f f e c t s of f u t u r e - r e l a t e d motives and rein f o r c e m e n t on performance. Gjesme a s s e r t e d t h a t f u t u r e P e r s p e c t i v e can be envisaged both as a s i t u a t i o n a l l y determined phenomenon and a t r a i t . However Gjesme's study c o n c e n t r a t e d 58 p r i m a r i l y on the c o r r e l a t i o n between a n x i e t y and importance of a c t i v i t y as inducements of the manif-estation of an unknown c a p a c i t y . f o r f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . U n d e r l y i n g the s i t u a t i o n a l aspect of the m a n i f e s t a t i o n appears to be a t r a i t l i k e conception of the o r i e n t a t i o n phenomenon with degree of arousal as the s i t u a t i o n a l l y v a r i a b l e aspect. What Gjesme has not addressed i s a measurement of the m a n i f e s t a t i o n of the t r i a d of past, present and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s under the s t r e s s of s i t u a t i o n s whose value to the i n d i v i d u a l i s high. T h i s task i s undertaken i n the present study. Agarwal and T i w a r i (1988) conducted a s i m i l a r study concerning the r e l a t i o n s h i p between m o t i v a t i o n and temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . They determined t h a t a group who was forewarned about t e s t i n g on a l i s t d i s c r i m i n a t i o n task performed b e t t e r than a group who was not forewarned. Agarwal and T i w a r i concluded that p e r c e p t i o n s of f u t u r e u t i l i t y a f f e c t the amount of temporal coding that i s e f f e c t e d i n such a task. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and S t r e s s B o u f f a r d et a l . (1983) examined the decrements i n temporal extension that occur i n response to goal f r u s t r a t i o n and found a s i g n i f i c a n t negative c o r r e l a t i o n between temporal extension and f r u s t r a t i o n . T h i s study was an attempt to i n v e s t i g a t e the e f f e c t s of s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s on f u t u r e time extension. B o u f f a r d found that there were no d i f f e r e n c e s between groups before the occurrence of the f r u s t r a t i n g s i t u a t i o n on f u t u r e temporal e x t e n s i o n measures. F o l l o w i n g admission or r e j e c t i o n to the U n i v e r s i t y of Rwanda, there was a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n length of future temporal p e r s p e c t i v e between admitted or n o n - f r u s t r a t e d groups and r e j e c t e d o r f r u s t r a t e d groups. The c o n c l u s i o n to be drawn from t h i s study i s that present-based t h i n k i n g may be a r e a c t i o n t o f r u s t r a t i n g circumstances. The main d i f f i c u l t y w i t h t h i s study i s that the p o s t - t e s t group was not the same group as that obtained f o r the p r e - t e s t and the o r i g i n a l design was m o d i f i e d t o become e s s e n t i a l l y a p o s t t e s t only design. T h i s d i f f i c u l t y c a sts i n doubt the assumption of e q u a l i t y of groups on the measure preceding the m a n i p u l a t i o n . Lomranz (1985) i n v e s t i g a t e d the s e n s i t i v i t y of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e t o s o c i a l pressures. Lomranz r e f e r r e d to "the human tendency to m a i n t a i n personal i n t e g r i t y and c o n t i n u i t y w i t h i n a framework of time o r i e n t a t i o n (temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ) . . . ( t h a t was)... t e s t e d by the most d e v a s t a t i n g s t r e s s e s of constant l o s s and t h r e a t to l i f e . " Lomranz a l l u d e d t o the p o s s i b i l i t y of d e f i n i n g p o s i t i v e r a t h e r than t r a d i t i o n a l l y sought a f t e r negative aspects of s u r v i v o r adjustments. He f u r t h e r r e f i n e d the concept of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n t o 'predominance' or r e l a t i v e weights a t t a c h e d to the past and futu r e by the i n d i v i d u a l and 'density' d e f i n e d as a measure of the number of events t h a t s u b j e c t s are concerned with r e g a r d i n g the past or f u t u r e . T h i s d i s t i n c t i o n was drawn i n r e c o g n i t i o n of the f a c t that a s i n g l e c a t a s t r o p h i c event such as the holocaust can cause an i n d i v i d u a l to a t t a c h a gr e a t s i g n i f i c a n c e to the '60 past and to use such an event as a y a r d s t i c k f o r a l l o t h e r l i f e events. Lomranz compared a group of Holocaust s u r v i v o r s w i t h a c o n t r o l group and found t h a t Holocaust s u r v i v o r s were more p a s t -o r i e n t e d , more p e s s i m i s t i c and l e s s f u t u r e - o r i e n t e d than the c o n t r o l group. No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s were found i n p r e s e n t o r i e n t a t i o n . T h i s f i n d i n g i s consonant with other s t u d i e s t h a t found a r e d u c t i o n i n f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e under p e r i o d s of emotional s t r e s s . There i s an i n t e r e s t i n g p o i n t to c o n s i d e r i n t h i s study as i n many others u s i n g time l i n e s or w r i t t e n l i n e a r geometric r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of the l i f e span. These k i n d s of t e s t s r e q u i r e the i n d i v i d u a l to form a l i n e a r c o g n i t i v e map of events that may not be l i n e a r l y c o n c e p t u a l i s e d c o g n i t i v e l y and t o t r a n s f e r these p o s s i b l y a r t i f a c t u a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s i n t o a w r i t t e n format. If i t i s assumed that c o g n i t i v e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s are even roughly l i n e a r then i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n s p a t i a l a b i l i t i e s c o u l d confound t e s t r e s u l t s . Lomranz commented on t h i s p o i n t i n d i r e c t l y by s u g g e s t i n g t h a t an independent weighing of f u t u r e and past might be more i n f o r m a t i v e i n terms of b e i n g l e s s r e s t r i c t e d to instrumental c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Lomranz made an i n t e r e s t i n g comment th a t " i f s u r v i v o r s give g r e a t e r predominance to the past i t must be at the expense of the f u t u r e , as the l i n e (measure) i s f i n i t e . " T h i s p o i n t may be argued on the b a s i s that Lomranz i s c l a i m i n g t h a t a f i n i t e measuring instrument which may or may not v a l i d l y r e p r e s e n t temporal c o g n i t i o n i s synonymous with the c o m p l e x i t i e s of human thought p a t t e r n s . Another study on the e f f e c t s of s t r e s s on temporal p e r s p e c t i v e was conducted by B e i s e r (1987). B e i s e r ' s r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d that a l t e r a t i o n s i n time p e r c e p t i o n may serve an adaptive purpose. B e i s e r i n v e s t i g a t e d a group of Southeast A s i a n refugees i n Vancouver. I n d i v i d u a l s who were preoccupied w i t h the past were found to have s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r l e v e l s of d e p r e s s i o n . During periods of acute s t r e s s , i n d i v i d u a l s who focussed e x c l u s i v e l y on the present were comparably l e s s depressed. A reemergence of thoughts about the past and f u t u r e d u r i n g s t r e s s f u l p e r i o d s r e s u l t e d i n e x a c e r b a t i o n s of d e p r e s s i v e s t a t e s . Agarwal (1983) found that e x p e r i e n t i a l r a t h e r than p h y s i c a l d e p r i v a t i o n d u r i n g e a r l y developmental p e r i o d s p r e d i c t e d degree of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Low d e p r i v a t i o n groups were found to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r on measures of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and e x t e n s i o n than h i g h d e p r i v a t i o n groups. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and Ego S t r e n g t h Rapaport (1985) conducted an i n t e r e s t i n g study on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between ego i d e n t i t y and temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Rapaport contended that a s t r o n g sense of ego i d e n t i t y i s consonant with a s t r o n g , dynamic f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . He agreed with the c o n t e n t i o n of P i a t t and Darkes (1969) that the d i f f i c u l t y i n o b t a i n i n g strong i n d i c a t o r s of v a l i d i t y f o r measures of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s the "apparent c r u c i a l i t y of s p e c i f i c context t o temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . " To t h i s end Rapaport c a l l e d f o r more molar measures of t e m p o r a l i t y with r e l a t i v e l y few 62 contextual cues. Rapaport used the Rapaport Time L i n e as a measure of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . T h i s instrument r e q u i r e s the s u b j e c t to place s i g n i f i c a n t l i f e events on a s t r i p of paper and gauges v a r y i n g d e n s i t i e s of events p l a c e d i n the past, present and f u t u r e as i n d i c a t o r s of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y Rapaport d i d not give r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e v a l i d i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y i n f o r m a t i o n on h i s measurement instruments. A l l o c a t i o n of s u b j e c t s i n t o groups of i n c r e a s i n g l y i n t e g r a t e d e g o - i d e n t i t y was c a r r i e d out by an experimenter who was aware of the nature of the study, although i t i s not c l e a r i f Rapaport h i m s e l f d i d the group assignment task. I n t e r r a t e r r e l i a b i l i t y f o r t h i s a s s i g n a t i o n was computed on the a s s i g n a t i o n s of a much l e s s q u a l i f i e d i n d i v i d u a l , y i e l d i n g a 76% i n t e r r a t e r r e l i a b i l i t y r a t e , a l l of which leaves a c t u a l group membership i n some doubt. Despite doubts c o n f e r r e d by the procedures and measures, some i n t e r e s t i n g r e s u l t s emerged from t h i s data. Rapaport found t h a t there was a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n the amount of e x p e r i e n c e s that s u b j e c t s p l a c e i n each temporal zone on the paper s t r i p . The a l l o c a t i o n f o r d i s t a n t f u t u r e experiences was h i g h e r f o r i n d i v i d u a l s w i t h more h i g h l y i n t e g r a t e d ego s t r u c t u r e s than f o r i n d i v i d u a l s e x p e r i e n c i n g i d e n t i t y c r i s e s . In a d d i t i o n to t h i s , the more i n t e g r a t e d the ego i d e n t i t y the more o v e r a l l balance was a c h i e v e d between past, present and f u t u r e time zones. T h i s study i s c o r r e l a t i o n a l i n nature, t h e r e f o r e a case could be made f o r e x p l o r i n g the d i r e c t i o n . o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p between ego i d e n t i t y and temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Rapaport made re f e r e n c e to ego 63 i d e n t i t y as a f l u i d e n t i t y whose degree of i n t e g r a t i o n i s responsive to the degree of i d e n t i t y c r i s i s . It would be i n t e r e s t i n g to conduct the same study as a p r e t e s t - p o s t t e s t design to see i f temporal p e r s p e c t i v e changes during i d e n t i t y c r i s e s , as the b a s e l i n e value was not e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h i s study. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and Development With r e s p e c t to developmental i s s u e s i n r e l a t i o n s h i p to temporal p e r s p e c t i v e , Kastenbaum (1987) i n d i c a t e d that a wealth of e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h and c l i n i c a l experience i n d i c a t e s the importance of i n t e g r a t i n g past, present and f u t u r e i n t o the sense of the c o n t i n u i n g s e l f . Kastenbaum a s s e r t e d that a r e a l i s t i c and s i g n i f i c a n t goal i n therapy f o r the e l d e r l y i s to i n t e g r a t e past experience i n t o the ongoing matrix of present experience. E r i k s o n (1964) has w r i t t e n that "the young person, i n order to experience wholeness, must f e e l a p r o g r e s s i v e c o n t i n u i t y between that which he has come to be d u r i n g the long years of c h i l d h o o d and that which he promises to be i n the a n t i c i p a t e d f u t u r e . S e l f - c o n t i n u i t y i s promoted by s h i f t s i n temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and i s r e p r e s e n t e d i n p s y c h o a n a l y t i c theory as a means of p r e v e n t i n g p a t h o l o g i c fragmentation of the p e r s o n a l i t y (Freud, 1953, 1958). More r e c e n t l y Satran (1989) contended t h a t addressing the past i s a c e n t r a l theme i n p s y c h o a n a l y s i s . Oppenheimen and Van der Lee (1983) i n v e s t i g a t e d the r e l a t i o n s h i p of s o c i a l p e r s p e c t i v e - t a k i n g and r e v e r s i b i l i t y . Oppenheimen and Van der Lee found t h a t s o c i a l - p e r s p e c t i v e t a k i n g competence develops a f t e r the a b i l i t y to r e c o n s t r u c t forward and 64 backward sequences develops i n c h i l d r e n . In oth e r words, the a b i l i t y to r e c o n s t r u c t sequences i n order o t h e r than t h e i r o r i g i n a l occurrence was s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d with measures of s o c i a l - p e r s p e c t i v e t a k i n g . The main problem w i t h t h i s work i s the same problem t h a t plagues many of the s t u d i e s on temporal p e r s p e c t i v e which i s the v a l i d i t y of measures used and i n t h i s case the v a l i d i t y of the measure of s o c i a l p e r s p e c t i v e - t a k i n g . Savickas et a l . (1984) i n v e s t i g a t e d the r o l e of m a t u r i t y of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n the care e r decision-making process. U t i l i s i n g the Long Term Personal D i r e c t i o n S c a l e and the A c h i e v a b i 1 i t y of Future Goals S c a l e , Savickas determined that f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e was a component of two f a c t o r s r e l a t i n g to v o c a t i o n a l m a t u r i t y and decision-making. Greene (1986) examined the changes i n f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e t h a t e v o l v e with the advent of formal o p e r a t i o n a l reasoning. Greene a s s e r t e d that Piaget f a i l e d t o d e s c r i b e the p a r t i c u l a r dimensions of future temporal p e r s p e c t i v e that are i n f l u e n c e d by c o g n i t i v e developmental change. An i n v e s t i g a t i o n was conducted to a s c e r t a i n the s h i f t s i n e x t e n s i o n , d e n s i t y and co n s i s t e n c y of f u t u r e events that occurred over the course of adolescent development. Greene found g r e a t e r temporal ex t e n s i o n i n o l d e r a d o l e s c e n t s but f a i l e d to f i n d a g r e a t e r d e n s i t y of futu r e r e l a t e d p e r c e p t i o n s between a d o l e s c e n t s of v a r y i n g ages. Groups s t u d i e d were 15, 17 and 19 years r e s p e c t i v e l y . One cu r i o u s aspect of t h i s study i s that Greene d i d not include a younger group than 15 years as t h i s i s an age by which many 65 r e s e a r c h e r s p o s i t t h a t the formal o p e r a t i o n a l c a p a c i t y i s a l r e a d y i n p l a c e . T h i s may account f o r the weakening of r e s u l t s w i t h r e s p e c t to f u t u r e temporal d e n s i t y . Greene u t i l i s e d the d e n s i t y of f u t u r e Events t a s k i n which the number of f u t u r e events r e p o r t e d i s taken as an i n d i c a t o r of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and the o l d e s t r e p o r t e d proposed age attached to each event, was a measure of maximum e x t e n s i o n . T h i s t e s t v i o l a t e s one of the b a s i c tenets of Lewin's th e o r y with r e s p e c t to the r e a l i s m -i r r e a l i s m dimension of p e r s p e c t i v e , as i t makes no d i s t i n c t i o n between d e n s i t i e s of p l a u s i b l e and f a n t a s t i c a l f u t u r e p r o j e c t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , Greene measured h i g h e s t value of f u t u r e e x t e n s i o n and median value of f u t u r e e x t e n s i o n f o r v a r y i n g ages and found s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between groups o n l y on the h i g h e s t value measure. T h i s r e s u l t i s i n q u e s t i o n because t h i s measure i s probably s u b j e c t to u n r e a l i s t i c guessing of v a l u e s . I n t e r e s t i n g l y enough, Greene focussed on the Balance Beam measure of formal o p e r a t i o n s as the probable c u l p r i t i n the l a c k of s i g n i f i c a n t f i n d i n g s where t h i s measure appears to be i n f a c t the most v a l i d and r e l i a b l e of the study. Tismer (1987) examined the r e l a t i o n s h i p between development and temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . H i s r e s u l t s demonstrated a decrease i n f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and i n c r e a s e i n present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e d u r i n g adolescence. Tismer used the c i r c l e s t e s t as a measure of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e which he i n d i c a t e d i s an o b j e c t i v e measure. I t may be noted that the s u b j e c t s were given the f o l l o w i n g t e s t i n s t r u c t i o n s : "draw the c i r c l e s . . . t h a t best 66 show how you f e e l about the past, present and f u t u r e . " These i n s t r u c t i o n s appear t o be more a t t i t u d i n a l l y - r e l a t e d than d e n s i t y - r e l a t e d and Tismer may have i n a c t u a l i t y been i n v e s t i g a t i n g the importance of valence of temporal c o n c e p t i o n s r a t h e r than the d e n s i t y of temporal thoughts. Tismer d i d however re c o g n i z e the d i s t i n c t i o n between r e a l i s t i c - m a t u r e versus fanciful-immature n o t i o n s of the f u t u r e . Tismer q u e s t i o n e d the l i n e a r model of c o g n i t i v e and m o t i v a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e of a n t i c i p a t i o n s and made a case f o r r e g a r d i n g temporal p e r s p e c t i v e as a c u r v i l i n e a r phenomenon i n which temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s r e l a t e d t o the d i s t a n c e of the go a l from the present as opposed to the t r a d i t i o n a l l i n e a r c o n c e p t i o n . Tismer's r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d that younger adolescents engage i n more u n r e a l i s t i c , w i s h f u l t h i n k i n g while o l d e r a d o l e s c e n t s engage i n more r e a l i s t i c f u t u r e -o r i e n t e d thought. Strumpf (1987) used the Time Reference Inventory t o gauge temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s of the e l d e r l y . Contrary t o the d i c t a t e s of "common knowledge", Strumpf found t h a t e l d e r l y i n d i v i d u a l s r e p o r t e d t h a t the present dominated t h e i r thoughts. Only 7% of the s u b j e c t s claimed t o t h i n k more about the past than the present. However, most of the s u b j e c t s s a i d t h a t the past was the most important time i n t h e i r l i v e s and t h a t they d e r i v e d the most enjoyment from t h i n k i n g about the past. Strumpf concluded that i t i s not necessary to be p a s t - o r i e n t e d to t h i n k about and enjoy the past. T h i s f i n d i n g i s consonant w i t h the s t u d i e s concerning temporal p e r s p e c t i v e under s t r e s s , i f one 67 takes i n t o account that the study was conducted i n an i n s t i t u t i o n f o r the e l d e r l y . I n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n may be an r e l a t i v e l y unhappy and t h e r e f o r e s t r e s s f u l experience f o r many e l d e r l y i n d i v i d u a l s which may r e s u l t i n a predominance of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e , s i m i l a r to the o r i e n t a t i o n s mentioned e a r l i e r i n p e r i o d s of s o c i a l upheaval such as war. When the e l d e r l y i n d i v i d u a l r e f l e c t s on the r e l a t i v e autonomy of t h e i r l i f e p r i o r t o i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n perhaps a present-based p e r s p e c t i v e i s adaptive. Hyman (1988) i n v e s t i g a t e d aspects of what she termed "time competence" i n e l d e r l y women. Hyman concluded that the s e l f -a c t u a l i z i n g i n d i v i d u a l o r i e n t s themselves p r i m a r i l y i n the present. The present i s t r e a t e d as a means to an end and r e g r e t s over events t h a t have occurred i n the past are overcome. She u t i l i s e d the f o r c e d choice Personal P e r s p e c t i v e Inventory which was v a l i d a t e d by comparison of scores t o c l i n i c a l a l l o c a t i o n t o groups based on degree of s e l f - a c t u a l i z a t i o n . P o s s i b l y the most d i s t u r b i n g aspect of t h i s study was the f a c t t h at the sample c o n s i s t e d of 343 female 'helping p r o f e s s i o n a l s ' who were probably a r e l a t i v e l y homogeneous group i n terms of s e l f - a c t u a l i z a t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , the r e l i a b i l i t y v a l u e s were c a l c u l a t e d on c o l l e g e students who presumably f a l l l a r g e l y i n t o the same s e l f -a c t u a l i z e d category. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and Achievement M i t c h e l l and Cantlon (1987) d e v i s e d a model f o r i n d u c i n g f u t u r i s t i c problem-solving. M i t c h e l l and Cantlon contended t h a t the f u t u r e - o r i e n t e d problem s o l v e r must c r e a t e g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s , analyze f o r c e s a f f e c t i n g goal achievement and f o r e c a s t the consequences of s o l u t i o n s on the problem s i t u a t i o n . Born (1984) found a p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between r e a l i s t i c o r g a n i z a t i o n of elements contained i n thoughts about the f u t u r e and s u c c e s s f u l i n t e g r a t i o n i n t o s o c i e t y . Hyman (1988) r e v e a l e d a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between fut u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e , i n t e r n a l locus of c o n t r o l and high l e v e l s of o c c u p a t i o n a l a s p i r a t i o n . Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and R e f l e c t i v i t y Agarwal (1983) conducted a study of the i n f l u e n c e of d i s p o s i t i o n a l f a c t o r s on time p e r s p e c t i v e which he proposed i s learned through s o c i a l f o r c e s . The e f f e c t of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e on behaviour was a l s o s t u d i e d as w e l l as the r e l a t i o n s h i p of r e f l e c t i v i t y versus i m p u l s i v i t y to time p e r s p e c t i v e . T h i s study u t i l i s e d a c h e c k l i s t of l i f e events and the p r o p o r t i o n of chosen f u t u r e responses to p o s s i b l e f u t u r e responses d i v i d e d by t o t a l of a l l past, present and f u t u r e responses chosen as a measure of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Agarwal a l s o s t u d i e d the concept of f u t u r e e x t e n s i o n d e f i n e d i n t h i s study as the number of years t h a t the s u b j e c t planned and thought over the past and the f u t u r e . Agarwal s t u d i e d the r e l a t i o n s h i p between r e f l e c t i v e versus i m p u l s i v e s t y l e i n decision-making u s i n g the s t o r y technique i n which open-ended present tense statements were presented to s u b j e c t s who were asked to complete the sentences w i t h s t o r i e s t h a t were then analyzed f o r f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and e x t e n s i o n . Agarwal found that f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and e x t e n s i o n were s i g n i f i c a n t l y and p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d with response time. In a d d i t i o n the study showed t h a t r e f l e c t i v e s t y l e showed a g r e a t e r preference f o r delayed g r a t i f i c a t i o n when i t was accompanied by a g r e a t e r f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Agarwal contends that the r e s u l t s demonstrate t h a t r e f l e c t i v i t y i s r e l a t e d to f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n t h a t an i n d i v i d u a l who i s r e f l e c t i v e ponders v a r i o u s hypotheses before a r r i v i n g at a c o r r e c t s o l u t i o n and i s b e t t e r prepared to d e l a y immediate small rewards f o r l a r g e r delayed rewards. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e and A f f e c t Strack (1985) s t u d i e d the e f f e c t s of a f f e c t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h recent event memories on r a t i n g s of l i f e s a t i s f a c t i o n . S t r a c k r e f e r r e d to the work of Tversky and Kahneman (1982) i n which the authors s t a t e d t h a t r e c a l l e d events are c o n s i d e r e d by the i n d i v i d u a l t o be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of other events t h a t take p l a c e i n present l i f e . S t r a c k found t h a t , i f past events e l i c i t a f f e c t at a l l , then r e c a l l of recent events w i t h n e g a t i v e a f f e c t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n s w i l l have an e f f e c t on r a t i n g s of l i f e s a t i s f a c t i o n . I f no a f f e c t i s e l i c i t e d then a r e v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between n e g a t i v e event r e c a l l and l i f e s a t i s f a c t i o n r a t i n g s may be found. Darasse (1988) examined d i f f e r e n t i a l temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s t h a t are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v a r y i n g m i l i t a n t p o l i t i c a l a f f i l i a t i o n s . She found that communists were more p a s t - o r i e n t e d than French 70 consumer union a c t i v i s t s . Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e d i d not d i s t i n g u i s h the two groups but communists were more p o s i t i v e about the f u t u r e than the consumer union a c t i v i s t s . Darasse used Osgood's Semantic D i f f e r e n t i a l S c a l e to determine temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . T h i s study c o u l d be c r i t i c i s e d i n t h i s r e s p e c t as Darasse appears to confuse temporal p e r s p e c t i v e w i t h temporal Valence. For example, a choice of ' r e a s s u r i n g versus worrying' with r e s p e c t to how one f e e l s about the past may be l e s s an i n d i c a t o r of temporal dominance than of optimism-pessimism about the past. Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e as a S t y l i s t i c V a r i a b l e Zuckerman (1988) attempted to i n v e s t i g a t e the r o l e of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n a t t r i b u t i o n s . He p o s i t e d t h a t the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of an event by the observer can be seen i n terms of an i n f e r e n c e that might be drawn from that event or p o t e n t i a l knowledge that can be l e a r n e d from t h a t event. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of an event can be seen as an e x p l a n a t i o n l e a d i n g to the event o r a p o t e n t i a l cause of the event. In other words, some i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s are designed o n l y to e x p l a i n the past and others are designed to be t e s t e d i n the future^ Zuckerman manipulated the temporal o r i e n t a t i o n v a r i a b l e by a s s i g n i n g s u b j e c t s to one group w i t h i n s t r u c t i o n s t h a t t h e r e would be a follow-up s e s s i o n or to another group w i t h i n s t r u c t i o n s t h at there would be no follow-up s e s s i o n . Zuckerman found that f u t u r e - o r i e n t e d o b s e r v e r s focus on what he terms the i n f e r e n c e set which r e v e a l s i n f o r m a t i o n to the observer about how the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n w i l l account f o r f u t u r e events. T h i s i s a s i m i l a r concept to that proposed i n TPM i n which both source of event to be i n t e r p r e t e d and purpose of i n t e r p r e t i n g such events i s to be found i n future events. Another study concerning the s t y l e of a t t r i b u t i o n with respect to temporal p e r s p e c t i v e was conducted by Wolf and Savickas (1985) . A p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p was found between a sense of c o n t i n u i t y between past, present and f u t u r e , m o t i v a t i o n and a t t r i b u t i o n s of success to ones own e f f o r t and a b i l i t y as opposed to a t t r i b u t i n g success to luck. The Long Term Personal D i r e c t i o n Inventory (Wessman, 1973) was used on a sample of 215 tenth grade students. Wolf and Savick a s contended t h a t grade tens are past the age when time concepts have emerged. Some c r i t i c i s m may be l e v i e d on t h i s p o i n t s i n c e there are s t u d i e s d e s c r i b e d i n the developmental s e c t i o n t h a t are based on the premise t h a t temporal p e r s p e c t i v e development continues t o occur up u n t i l 19 y e a r s of age. Summary: P o i n t s from the Current L i t e r a t u r e on Temporal  P e r s p e c t i v e The review of recent l i t e r a t u r e above i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of the current trends i n t h e o r e t i c a l i n q u i r y concerning temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . From the wealth of i n f o r m a t i o n above, s e v e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s r e l e v a n t to the i n t e g r a t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n t o a model of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n can be drawn: 1) Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s i n f l u e n c e d by both s o c i a l e xperiences and p e r s o n a l i t y v a r i a b l e s . A f u n c t i o n a l model 72 demonstrating the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between c o g n i t i v e and person v a r i a b l e s and temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s r e q u i r e d . 2) Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e must be examined w i t h r e s p e c t to l a t e n t a b i l i t i e s and the degree of a r o u s a l of such l a t e n t a b i l i t i e s i n g iven s i t u a t i o n s that may possess d i f f e r e n t i a l v a l u e -o r i e n t a t i o n s f o r the i n d i v i d u a l . Goals are important determinants of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e engagement. 3) Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e width can be reduced under periods of emotional s t r e s s and o v e r c o n c e n t r a t i o n on one part of the temporal t r i a d r e s u l t s i n d e f i c i e n c i e s i n c o n c e n t r a t i o n upon other p a r t s of the t r i a d . 4) Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h adjustment. A strong sense of ego i d e n t i t y i s consonant with a strong, dynamic f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . A wealth of e m p i r i c a l r e s e a r c h and c l i n i c a l experience i n d i c a t e s the importance of i n t e g r a t i n g past, present and f u t u r e i n t o the sense of the c o n t i n u i n g s e l f . 5) Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e development progresses from a more u n r e a l i s t i c , w i s h f u l t h i n k i n g approach t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of the f u t u r e to a more r e a l i s t i c c o nception of the f u t u r e . 6) Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s r e l a t e d to r e f l e c t i v i t y i n that an i n d i v i d u a l who i s r e f l e c t i v e i s more f u t u r e o r i e n t e d . 7) Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e width i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p o s i t i v e a f f e c t . 8) Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e can be c o n c e p t u a l i s e d as a s t y l i s t i c i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e . 73 (See a l s o h i s t o r i c a l review of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e l i t e r a t u r e i n appendix f o r f u r t h e r support of p o i n t s l i s t e d ) . Summary of the L i t e r a t u r e Review: The Need f o r a New Model of Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e The preceding l i t e r a t u r e review may be summarized with the f o l l o w i n g p o i n t s that t i e the n o t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n t o the concept of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n : 1) Previous models of the e x p l a n a t i o n and p r e d i c t i o n process s u f f e r i n t h e i r emphasis on the p e r c e i v e r ' s use of i n f o r m a t i o n d e r i v e d s o l e l y from r e l a t i v e l y p a s s i v e p r o c e s s i n g of p r e s e n t and past events, without c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the impact of imagined f u t u r e events on these processes. A new theory i s r e q u i r e d t h a t o u t l i n e s the importance of the p r e d i c t o r ' s dynamic i n t e g r a t i o n of past, present and f u t u r e events to the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . 2) The importance of a preparatory process of r e s o l u t i o n of imaginary or p o s s i b l e f u t u r e event problems o u t s i d e of the a c t u a l event context (GIOA) to the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n r e q u i r e s i n v e s t i g a t i o n . T h i s process i s proposed to enhance the s e l e c t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e judgements and a c t i o n s t r a t e g i e s concerning the outcome of a c t u a l events by reducing the p r o c e s s i n g and decision-making l o a d w i t h i n the event context. 3) The review of c u r r e n t temporal p e r s p e c t i v e l i t e r a t u r e p o i n t s out the n e c e s s i t y of examining the e f f e c t s of p a r t i c u l a r 74 i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e s on the i n d i v i d u a l ' s a b i l i t y to make use of a l l three p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d . Several of the important v a r i a b l e s d i s c u s s e d have been s e l e c t e d , based on i n f o r m a t i o n provided i n p i l o t i n t e r v i e w s , to form the b a s i s of a dynamic model of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n and c o n s i s t of the f o l l o w i n g : a) GIOA: a b i l i t y to generate a l t e r n a t i v e outcomes or gen e r a t i o n of images-of-achievement (use of past and futu r e p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d ) b) S e l f - e f f i c a c y : e f f e c t s of p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f -e f f i c a c y on GIOA. c) Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (PTP): a b i l i t y t o maintain focus on present cues i n performance s i t u a t i o n s (use of present p o i n t of temporal t r i a d ) d) M o t i v a t i o n : e f f e c t s of ag g r e s s i v e , c o n f l i c t e d , competence, c o o p e r a t i v e and competitive m o t i v a t i o n s on PTP. I t i s important t o reemphasize at t h i s p o i n t t h a t t h i s study i s not intended as a v a l i d a t i o n of the causal pathways of the proposed model, but r a t h e r as an i n i t i a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o the l i k e l i h o o d of the above-mentioned p a r t i c u l a r components b e i n g important to the model. The v a l i d a t i o n of model components i s an e s s e n t i a l p r e c u r s o r to causal a n a l y s i s . I f the proposed model components 75 are found to be v a l i d then the next s t e p i s to a s c e r t a i n the causal r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the components. T h i s would be an a n a l y s i s t h a t would be c a r r i e d out subsequent to t h i s study. TEMPORAL PERSPECTIVE THEORY: THE CURRENT STUDY A new model of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n termed TPM has been developed with the awareness of c r i t i c i s m s of previous t h e o r i e s d i s c u s s e d i n Part One of the l i t e r a t u r e review. From these c r i t i c i s m s the f o l l o w i n g c r i t e r i a have guided t h e o r e t i c a l p r o p o s i t i o n s : 1) The l i t e r a t u r e review p o i n t s out the need to take i n t o account the e f f e c t s of u t i l i s i n g a l l three p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d i n the judgement process. 2) The l i t e r a t u r e review i l l u m i n a t e s the requirement f o r i n v e s t i g a t i n g the no t i o n that GIOA a c t i v i t y o u t s i d e of the judgement s i t u a t i o n c o n t r i b u t e s to improvement i n judgemental e f f i c i e n c y . 3) The l i t e r a t u r e review emphasises the need f o r an i n v e s t i g a t i o n of the u s e f u l n e s s of c o n s i d e r i n g i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the use of judgmental s t r a t e g i e s . 4) The l i t e r a t u r e review p o i n t s out the need t o examine r e l a t i o n s h i p s between a f f e c t i v e v a r i a b l e s and c o g n i t i v e judgement v a r i a b l e s as s i g n i f i c a n t components of judgement 5) The l i t e r a t u r e review o u t l i n e s the importance of i n v e s t i g a t i n g p o s i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n s f o r schematic change. The TPM p r o p o s i t i o n i n c o r p o r a t e s the importance of the p r e d i c t o r ' s c o n s i d e r a t i o n of past, present and fut u r e events t o the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . The model emphasises the importance of a prepara t o r y process of r e s o l u t i o n of imaginary 77 or p o s s i b l e f u t u r e event problems ou t s i d e of the a c t u a l event context (GIOA) to the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . As s t a t e d before, t h i s process i s proposed to enhance the s e l e c t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e judgements and a c t i o n s t r a t e g i e s concerning the outcome of a c t u a l events by reducing the p r o c e s s i n g and d e c i s i o n -making load w i t h i n the event context. The model examines the e f f e c t s of. p a r t i c u l a r i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e v a r i a b l e s on the i n d i v i d u a l ' s a b i l i t y t o make use of a l l three p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d and c o n s i s t of the f o l l o w i n g : a) GIOA: a b i l i t y to generate a l t e r n a t i v e outcomes or ge n e r a t i o n of images-of-achievement (use of past and fu t u r e p o i n t s of temporal t r i a d ) b) S e l f - e f f i c a c y : e f f e c t s of p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f -e f f i c a c y on GIOA. c) Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (PTP): a b i l i t y to maintain focus on present cues i n performance s i t u a t i o n s (use of present p o i n t of temporal t r i a d ) d) M o t i v a t i o n : e f f e c t s of a g g r e s s i v e , c o n f l i c t e d , competence, cooperative and com p e t i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n s on PTP. T h i s model of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e can be viewed as a b i -p a r t a t e d i v i s i o n between the importance t o the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n o f : 1) Past and f u t u r e p e r s p e c t i v e o u t s i d e of the performance s i t u a t i o n (GIOA) 78 Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e w i t h i n the performance' s i t u a t i o n (PTP). Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s p o s i t e d to mediate the e x p r e s s i o n of past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s w i t h i n the performance s i t u a t i o n . S p e c i f i c a l l y , PTP i s p o s i t e d to i n t e r f e r e with the a c c e s s i n g of the products of GIOA. I t i s proposed that the primary-f u n c t i o n of PTP engagement i s s i t u a t i o n a l cue p e r c e p t i o n . I f cue p e r c e p t i o n i s inadequate then the matching image i n memory w i l l not be a b e s t - f i t s o l u t i o n to the judgement problem. 79 The Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Model: A Model of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n The f o l l o w i n g schematic o u t l i n e s the i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n process an i n d i v i d u a l goes through i n the s e l e c t i o n of a b e s t - f i t or most l i k e l y outcome of a performance s i t u a t i o n . :-ef f i< S e l f - i c a c y low | hi g h Part A o u t s i d e performance s i t u a t i o n : c o g n i t i v e v a r i a b l e s Competition Aggression P a r t B: i n p e r f . s i t . : a f f e c t i v e v a r i a b l e s r—> Part B: i n perf s i t . : c o g n i t i v e v a r i a b l e FTP 1ow I h i gh r Outcome L I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n low | h i g h c o n s t r u c t s = a s s o c i a t i o n s = F i g u r e 1: The Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Model P r e d i c t i o n model p a r t s > A Model of I n t u i t i v e E l a b o r a t i o n of Schematic Model P a r t s Part A: Outside of the Performance S i t u a t i o n m o t i v a t i o n through s e l f - e f f i c a c y - > engagement of past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (GIOA) or engagement of past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (memory) -> Part B: Within the Performance S i t u a t i o n a g g r e s s i v e - c o m p e t i t i v e or c o n f 1 i c t e d - c o m p e t i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n (negative a f f e c t ) or competence-cooperat i v e mot i v a t i o n ( p o s i t i v e a f f e c t ) - > engagement of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (PTP)(pick up cues match ongoing current s i t u a t i o n t o image-of-achievement i n memory) or f a i l u r e to engage present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ) - > accuracy of i n t u i t i v e s o c i a l p r e d i c t i o n or i n a c c u r a c y of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n ) - > p e r c e p t i o n s of e f f i c a c y - > . . . c y c l e d back i n t o GIOA... 81 TPM s t a t e s that the a b i l i t y of an i n d i v i d u a l to f o r e t e l l the behaviour of others or to engage i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s enhanced by the l o o k i n g at, or d i r e c t i n g mental p e r s p e c t i v e to, knowledge from t h r e e p o i n t s of the temporal event t r i a d : 1) a c t u a l past events (past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ) ; 2) p e r c e i v e d present events (present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ) ; 3) imagined, p o s s i b l e future events or images-of-achievement ( f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ) . A c t u a r i a l p r e d i c t i o n may be c o n c e p t u a l i s e d as a process by which p r e d i c t i o n i s c o n f i n e d to the examination of past event f r e q u e n c i e s or the past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Lobo and N a i r (1990) found that a combination of s t a t i s t i c a l and judgemental f o r e c a s t s y i e l d e d more accurate earning f o r e c a s t s than e i t h e r method alone. TPM a s s e r t s that a combination of a c t u a r i a l (past-based) and imaginative, s p e c u l a t i v e processes (future-based) c o n t r i b u t e to s u p e r i o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . TPM i s a l s o concerned with how m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s are r e l a t e d to the degree of m a n i f e s t a t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n performance s i t u a t i o n s . The e f f e c t s of these v a r i a b l e s on temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s proposed to i n f l u e n c e the i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n process. The review of c u r r e n t temporal p e r s p e c t i v e l i t e r a t u r e i n d i c a t e s that temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s a phenomenon that i s mutable, but only when su b j e c t e d to g r e a t s o c i a l f o r c e s . In t h i s t h e s i s i t i s suggested that an i n d i v i d u a l ' s temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s u f f e r s an e f f e c t under s t r e s s t h a t may be compared to a r e g r e s s i o n of the developmental process i n which, the c i t e d r e s e a r c h has r e v e a l e d , p e r s p e c t i v e g r a d u a l l y expands to encompass 82 not only present experience, but past and f u t u r e experience as w e l l . Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s c o n c e p t u a l i z e d i n t h i s t h e s i s as a more e l a s t i c phenomenon that demonstrates expansion and c o n t r a c t i o n s i n the width of the temporal span i n s i t u a t i o n s that are only moderately s t r e s s f u l . The p a r t i c u l a r emphasis i n t h i s t h e s i s i s that the fu t u r e and past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e are of maximum importance o u t s i d e of the performance context i n the development of ready-made judgement s t r a t e g i e s (GIOA) and that the present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e becomes of s i g n i f i c a n t importance w i t h i n the performance s i t u a t i o n . The importance of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s i n the i n d i v i d u a l ' s i n -performance s i t u a t i o n p e r c e p t i o n of cues that i s necessary to c s e l e c t the b e s t - f i t ready made IOA from the GIOA process. I t i s a b a s i c p r o p o s i t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s that the width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e can be reduced i n two ways. Outside of the performance s i t u a t i o n . The i n d i v i d u a l f a i l s to make use of imagined, p o s s i b l e events i n the development of ready-made, b e s t - f i t judgement s o l u t i o n s or images-of-achievement (IOA). Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s reduced to a c t u a l experienced or pa s t - d e r i v e d IOA. The a l t e r n a t i v e to t h i s s t y l e of p r o c e s s i n g experiences i s the e l i c i t a t i o n of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Note that f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s i n t i m a t e l y t i e d t o past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n the development of p o s s i b l e , imagined IOA. T h i s i s due to the f a c t that the past p r o v i d e s the m a t e r i a l s f o r g e n e r a t i n g new, p o s s i b l e s c e n a r i o s . P e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y are proposed to encourage the i n d i v i d u a l t o 83 continue engagement i n GIOA. In a d d i t i o n , cooperation-competence m o t i v a t i o n i s p o s i t e d to r e s u l t i n a more r e f l e c t i v e GIOA process than the e x t e r n a l l y o r i e n t e d c o m p e t i t i v e - a g g r e s s i v e m o t i v a t i o n . Within the performance s i t u a t i o n . The width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e can a l s o be reduced by f a i l u r e to e f f e c t i v e l y engage present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e w i t h i n the performance s i t u a t i o n . An e s s e n t i a l part of the judgement process i s the matching of IOA i n memory to performance s i t u a t i o n cues. I f an i n d i v i d u a l i s unable to s u c c e s s f u l l y p i c k up s i t u a t i o n a l cues i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t b e s t - f i t s t r a t e g i e s developed from past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s (GIOA) w i l l be aroused. I f cue pick-up i s inadequate then i n a p p r o p r i a t e s t r a t e g i e s w i l l be aroused, m o t i v a t i o n a l type i s proposed as i n f l u e n c e s on the engagement of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . Model Part A: Processes Outside of the Performance S i t u a t i o n  Future and Past Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e s : GIOA The importance of past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i n the g e n e r a t i o n of multiple-images-of-achievement i s o u t l i n e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n . Pribram (1971) d e f i n e d images-of-achievement (IOA) as h o l i s t i c p l ans of movement that precede a c t u a l a c t i o n . Pribram's concept of IOA r e f e r r e d to the process by which environmental co n t i n g e n c i e s and past experiences combine t o form a b l u e p r i n t f o r behaviour. Pribram suggested that the image decays every .5 seconds and i s r e p l a c e d by another c o n t a i n i n g a l l the output and outcomes necessary f o r the next step of the p l a n . Environmental 84 cues are screened and f i l t e r e d by the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e r e c o r d of p r i o r experience. When the course of a c t i o n looks good, a t e r m i n a l IOA guides the f i n a l phase of a c t i o n and the e n t i r e plan of a c t i o n i s present before i t i s needed ( F i s h e r , 1984). In interviews f o r the purposes of t h i s t h e s i s , a t h l e t e s and o f f i c i a l s r e p o r t e d the g e n e r a t i o n of s e v e r a l p r e - a c t i o n IOA f o r any p a r t i c u l a r performance s i t u a t i o n , based upon a s e t of environmental cues t h a t i n d i c a t e p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r the behaviour o f x o t h e r s . From t h i s s e t of p o s s i b l e options i s s e l e c t e d a t e r m i n a l IOA that guides the i n d i v i d u a l ' s behaviour. Provi d e d the i n d i v i d u a l i s a b l e to take i n maximal amounts of i n f o r m a t i o n from the environment, an IOA can be s e l e c t e d from experience that best matches the cues. The choice of IOA should be as wide as p o s s i b l e i n o r d e r to provide the best f i t to the p a r t i c u l a r performance s i t u a t i o n . Much of the expansion of the IOA r e p e r t o i r e by s u p e r i o r o f f i c i a l s was a p p a r e n t l y achieved o u t s i d e of the a c t u a l performance s i t u a t i o n . C l e a r l y , many IOA can be drawn from a c t u a l experience but i t appears t h a t s u p e r i o r achievement i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s r e l a t e d to p o s s e s s i o n of a r e p e r t o i r e of IOA t h a t goes beyond a c t u a l experience to c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of p o s s i b l e , imagined or f u t u r e IOA. T h i s makes sense as i t would seem l o g i c a l that the more s u b s t a n t i a l the r e p e r t o i r e the more l i k e l y i t i s that a ' b e s t - f i t ' p r e d i c t i o n w i l l be a v a i l a b l e t h a t w i l l i n f a c t f i t the s i t u a t i o n at hand. I t i s at t h i s point that width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e p l a y s an important r o l e i n the expansion of the r e p e r t o i r e . The process 85 of i n t r o d u c i n g imaginary experience to r e f l e c t i o n s on performance s i t u a t i o n s i s considered i n t h i s t h e s i s t o be the i n t r o d u c t i o n of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to the more passive past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e - o r i e n t e d r e f l e c t i v e process. Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s p o s i t e d t o determine the q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y of IOA p e r t a i n i n g to a performance s i t u a t i o n t h a t are i n the i n d i v i d u a l s memory. By q u a n t i t y i s meant the number of p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e p r e d i c t i o n s generated; by q u a l i t y i s meant the accuracy of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n s generated. I t i s to be noted that IOA that prove u s e f u l i n performance s i t u a t i o n s are p o s i t e d to be d e r i v e d from a combination of p r a c t i c a l and p r o j e c t i v e modes of thought. T h i s s t i p u l a t i o n i s i n keeping w i t h Lewin's (1948) d i s t i n c t i o n between r e a l i t y and i r r e a l i t y i n f u t u r e o r i e n t e d thought as i t seems reasonable to suggest t h a t w i s h f u l t h i n k i n g i n the l i g h t of i r r e a l i t y does not y i e l d u s e f u l products. Future temporal p e r s p e c t i v e , as an adaptive phenomenon, i s not simply a general tendency to T o o k to the f u t u r e ' as i s suggested i n the recent l i t e r a t u r e on time p e r s p e c t i v e . Instead, t h i s t h e s i s suggests, as d i d E r i k s o n ' s f o r m u l a t i o n w i t h regard to ego i d e n t i t y , t h a t a f u l l y developed and adaptive f u t u r e time p e r s p e c t i v e i n c o r p o r a t e s and d e r i v e s i t s substance from concerns of the present experience, interwoven with thoughts of past experience as s u b j e c t matter f o r the r e c o n s t r u c t i o n and p r e d i c t i o n of f u t u r e events. In t h i s manner, f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s a combination of temporal a t t e n t i o n to the past, present and f u t u r e and not simply a » 86 tendency to 'look ahead ' without r e g a r d to the past or present. In t h i s t h e s i s , o u t s i d e of the s t r e s s f u l s i t u a t i o n , the n o t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s c o n c e p t u a l i z e d more s i m i l a r l y to the s t a b l e c onception represented i n the l i t e r a t u r e to date. Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s considered i n t h i s t h e s i s much i n the same manner as the c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n by Gjesme (1983), where i t was p o s i t e d t h a t there i s a d i s t i n c t i o n between a b i l i t y and m a n i f e s t a t i o n of that a b i l i t y as a f u n c t i o n of the importance of the s i t u a t i o n t o the i n d i v i d u a l . Within the sport context there has been a body of r e s e a r c h that s p e c i f i c a l l y addresses the r e l e v a n c e of non-stressed r e f l e c t i o n to performance i n the s t r e s s f u l s i t u a t i o n . A primary source of expansion of the r e p e r t o i r e of IOA appears to be d i r e c t e d daydreams or 'what i f ' daydreams. D i r e c t e d daydreams must be d i s t i n g u i s h e d from non-active daydreams and the e i d e t i c which responds p o o r l y to a c t i v e imaginal h a n d l i n g (Ahsen, 1977). Daydreams are considered to be an important aspect of mental l i f e that can c o n t r i b u t e to h e a l t h (Singer & Switzer, 1980). Some a u t h o r i t i e s have suggested that d i v e r g e n t t h i n k i n g i s an important f u n c t i o n of daydreams (Straub & W i l l i a m s , 1984). I n d i v i d u a l s d i f f e r i n the a b i l i t y to imagine v i s u a l l y or v e r b a l l y (Sheehan, 1972). The q u a n t i t y and v i v i d n e s s of r e p o r t e d daydreams d i f f e r s between i n d i v i d u a l s (Singer & Antrobus, 1963; Singer & Switzer, 1980). Some i n d i v i d u a l s use daydreams i n a c o n s t r u c t i v e manner to s o l v e problems (Huba et a l . , 1977; S i n g e r & Antrobus, 1963). 87 Influences on GIOA: S e l f - e f f i c a c y S e l f - e f f i c a c y has been c o n c e p t u a l i s e d by Bandura (1984. 1986; Bandura et a l . . 1963) as an c o g n i t i v e v a r i a b l e that moves the i n d i v i d u a l toward performance of an a c t i v i t y . Bandura (1983) has r e f e r r e d to s e l f - e f f i c a c y p e r c e p t i o n s as determinants of a n t i c i p a t e d f e a r s . S e l f - e f f i c a c y p e r c e p t i o n s have been found to i n f l u e n c e performance on c o g n i t i v e tasks (Bouffard-Bouchard, 1990) i n terms of number of problem tasks completed, e f f i c i e n c y of s e l e c t e d s t r a t e g i e s and accuracy of s e l f - e v a l u a t i o n of responses. With r e s p e c t t o s e l f - e v a l u a t i o n , Conway (1990) found that r e t r o s p e c t i v e adjustments i n a u t o b i o g r a p h i c a l r e c a l l were more f r e q u e n t l y s i g n i f i c a n t f o r lower achievement i n d i v i d u a l s than higher achievement i n d i v i d u a l s . S e l f - e f f i c a c y i n TPM i s proposed to serve three important f u n c t i o n s . These a r e : 1) S e l f - e f f i c a c y p e r c e p t i o n s o r i e n t the i n d i v i d u a l t o fut u r e goals and achievements and are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the engagement of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n the s e r v i c e of goal achievement. 2) S e l f - e f f i c a c y p e r c e p t i o n s are a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e a l i s t i c s e l f and s i t u a t i o n a l assessments which are necessary ' r e a l i s m dimensions' (Lewin, 1948) of the GIOA process. 3) S e l f - e f f i c a c y p e r c e p t i o n s are a s s o c i a t e d with r e d u c t i o n s i n the frequency of images of a n t i c i p a t e d f e a r s of performance s i t u a t i o n s and a l l o w the development of r e a l i s t i c problem s o l u t i o n s . T h i s f u n c t i o n i s r e l a t e d t o the l i m i t e d i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y d e s c r i b e d i n the s e c t i o n on 88 d e c i s i o n theory. TPM p o s t u l a t e s that a n t i c i p a t e d f e a r s are low u t i l i t y images t h a t occupy i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g space and which,when p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y are h i g h , are r e p l a c e d by images of s o l v i n g problems r e a l i s t i c a l l y and s u c c e s s f u l l y . The low u t i l i t y of a n t i c i p a t e d f e a r s i s p o s i t e d i n t h i s t h e s i s to be due to the a s s o c i a t e d arousal and e f f e c t s on a t t e n t i o n a l processes. Model Part B: Processes w i t h i n the Performance S i t u a t i o n  Present Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e has been d e f i n e d i n t h i s study as the a b i l i t y to focus on o r p e r c e i v e meaningful cues i n the judgement context. There are f i v e m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s proposed by Butt (1979, 1987) t h a t TPM p o s i t s exert an i n f l u e n c e on the i n d i v i d u a l ' s a b i l i t y to engage present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e o (PTP). These m o t i v a t i o n s are proposed to exert i n f l u e n c e on PTP p r i m a r i l y through the e f f e c t s of a s s o c i a t e d a r o u s a l . M o t i v a t i o n a l I n f l u e n c e s on PTP From the TPM schematic, i t can be seen that changes i n the a c c e s s a b i 1 i t y of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e under performance s t r e s s are proposed to mediate the a v a i l a b i l i t y of m u l t i p l e -images-of-achievement that have been generated o u t s i d e the s t r e s s f u l s i t u a t i o n . T h i s s e c t i o n i s concerned w i t h these m o t i v a t i o n a l i n f l u e n c e s on the a c c e s s a b i 1 i t y of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . The m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s o u t l i n e d i n the i n -p e r f o r m a n c e - s i t u a t i o n part of the TPM p r o p o s i t i o n are important f o r the a f f e c t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each m o t i v a t i o n . I t i s the 89 a f f e c t i v e component that d i s t i n g u i s h e s t h i s m o t i v a t i o n a l part of the model from the c o g n i t i v e , f u t u r e - o r i e n t i n g s e l f - e f f i c a c y m o t i v a t i o n proposed in the f i r s t part of the model. In t h i s t h e s i s , s e l f - e f f i c a c y m o t i v a t i o n i s a c o g n i t i v e v a r i a b l e and the other f i v e m o t i v a t i o n s are considered f o r t h e i r importance as a f f e c t i v e variables.. N i d e f f e r (1976, 1979, 1981; N i d e f f e r & Sharp, 1978) d e f i n e d a t t e n t i o n a l s t y l e s i n terms of width and d i r e c t i o n of focus and i n d i c a t e d that broad-width and e x t e r n a l l y d i r e c t e d a t t e n t i o n was a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h l e v e l s of s o c i a l p r e d i c t i o n i n the sport environment. Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e may be d e f i n e d as a b r o a d - e x t e r n a l a t t e n t i o n a l s t y l e . E f f e c t i v e engagement of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e means that a m u l t i p l i c i t y of present-based cues i s a v a i l a b l e to the i n d i v i d u a l to provide a b e t t e r match to an IOA i n memory than j u s t a few cues. In TPM i t i s proposed that the more information the i n d i v i d u a l has about the cues of the c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n , the more a c c u r a t e l y a match can be achieved between that s i t u a t i o n and one from the memories storehouse of a c t u a l and hypothesized experience. White's (1959, 1961) theory of e f f e c t a n c e p o s t u l a t e s t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s are motivated by the d r i v e to have an e f f e c t on the environment which he terms " e f f e c t a n c e m o t i v a t i o n " . White maintains that competence d e r i v e s from e f f e c t i v e i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h the environment through the enactions of learned behaviour. A c q u i s i t i o n s i n competence are made independently of other d r i v e s such as hunger and sex. E f f e c t a n c e m o t i v a t i o n i s expressed i n 90 s o c i a l s e t t i n g s as i n f l u e n c e by c o m p e t i t i o n and a g g r e s s i o n or i n f l u e n c e by cooperation and competence. Butt (1979, .1987) drew upon White's theory and the e x t e n s i v e l i t e r a t u r e concerning c o o p e r a t i v e and competitive m o t i v a t i o n s and achievement to develop and r e s e a r c h a model of s p o r t m o t i v a t i o n i n which p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between: 1) c o o p e r a t i v e and competence mo t i v a t i o n s and 2) competitive and a g g r e s s i v e or c o n f l i c t e d m o t i v a t i o n s were proposed and found. Butt developed a q u i n t e t of s e l f - r e p o r t s c a l e s designed to measure the f i v e m o t i v a t i o n s of cooperation, competition, aggression, competence and c o n f l i c t i n the s p o r t environment v i a assessments of a s s o c i a t e d a f f e c t . In competence and cooperative m o t i v a t i o n s a t t e n t i o n i s focussed on the improvement of s e l f and others.' Competence and c o o p e r a t i v e m o t i v a t i o n s are a s s o c i a t e d with p o s i t i v e a f f e c t such as p l e a s u r e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h self-improvement. Competitive m o t i v a t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h negative a f f e c t and a t t e n t i o n i s focussed e i t h e r on the d e f e a t of opponents or on i n n e r t u r m o i l . Competitive m o t i v a t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h : a) a g g r e s s i v e m o t i v a t i o n where anger i s the primary a s s o c i a t e d a f f e c t ; b) c o n f l i c t e d m o t i v a t i o n where g u i l t and anxiety c o n s t i t u t e the primary a s s o c i a t e d a f f e c t . I t i s the nature of the a f f e c t a s s o c i a t e d with each of the m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s that are of primary i n t e r e s t i n the TPM p r o p o s i t i o n . As d i s c u s s e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , negative a f f e c t -has profound e f f e c t on present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . 91 Negative A f f e c t and PTP Negative a f f e c t has been d e s c r i b e d as a r o u s a l t h a t has been c o g n i t i v e l y l a b e l l e d as negative. Schacter (1964; Schacter & Singer. 1962, 1979; Schacter & Wheeler, 1962) p o s t u l a t e d two c o n d i t i o n s necessary f o r the experience of emotion: p h y s i o l o g i c a l a r o u s a l and the c o g n i t i v e process t h a t d e f i n e s a p a r t i c u l a r emotional s t a t e . TPM a s s e r t s t h a t n e g a t i v e a f f e c t has a detrimental e f f e c t i n temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n the performance s i t u a t i o n . As proposed by Butt (1979, 1987) n e g a t i v e a f f e c t can be expressed outwardly as aggression or inwardly as c o n f l i c t . The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s e l a b o r a t e two ways i n which negative a f f e c t i n f l u e n c e s present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . E f f e c t s of Aggressive M o t i v a t i o n on PTP The temporal p e r s p e c t i v e l i t e r a t u r e supports the n o t i o n t h a t s t r e s s n e g a t i v e l y a f f e c t s the width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (Beiser, 1987; B e t t l e h e i m , 1958; B o u f f a r d , 1983; Lomranz, 1985; S t o u f f e r , 1959). TPM a s s e r t s that negative a f f e c t i s more s t r e s s f u l to the i n d i v i d u a l than p o s i t i v e a f f e c t . I t i s proposed i n t h i s study that the width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s a f f e c t e d d i f f e r e n t i a l l y by the valence that i s a t t a c h e d to the arousal that occurs under s t r e s s f u l performance s i t u a t i o n s , much i n the same way that a r o u s a l a f f e c t s f i e l d width and s a l i e n c e of o b j e c t s i n the present a t t e n t i o n a l f i e l d . The r e l a t i o n s h i p between present a t t e n t i o n a l width and a r o u s a l has been we 11-documented i n the a t t e n t i o n a l l i t e r a t u r e (Bacon, 1974; Burkham, 1964; Landers, 1980). TPM p o s i t s that n e g a t i v e l y - v a l e n c e d a r o u s a l of aggression, that Butt (1979, 1987) proposed stems from competitive m o t i v a t i o n , i s a s s o c i a t e d with the i n a b i l i t y to engage present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . N e g a t i v e l y - l a b e l l e d arousal or negative a f f e c t a f f e c t s the engagement of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (cue pick-up) by reducing the i n d i v i d u a l ' s a b i l i t y to p e r c e i v e a m u l t i p l i c i t y of environmental cues to match to IOA i n memory. E f f e c t s of C o n f l i c t e d M o t i v a t i o n on PTP C o n f l i c t e d m o t i v a t i o n (Butt, 1979, 1987) i s a s s o c i a t e d with g u i l t and a n x i e t y i n the performance s i t u a t i o n . A rousal with a s s o c i a t e d negative a f f e c t have been s t u d i e d i n terms of the tendency of negative a f f e c t to lead to inward focus (Bower, 1981; Isen et a l . , 1978; Wicklund, 1975). T h i s inward focus c o n t r i b u t e s to the l i k e l i h o o d that i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l focus on negative memories about themselves. In t h i s p r o c e s s , IOA developed o u t s i d e of the s t r e s s f u l s i t u a t i o n are d i s p l a c e d i n working memory by r e g r e s s i o n s i n temporal p e r s p e c t i v e that dominate the i n d i v i d u a l ' s thoughts with past or f u t u r e f a i l u r e s . There are two i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h i s process: 1) Only c e r t a i n IOA w i l l be a v a i l a b l e t o the i n d i v i d u a l . I f working memory has a f i n i t e c a p a c i t y ( H u t t e n l o c h e r & Burke, 1976; Pascual-Leone. 1970) and i s f i l l e d ' w i t h negative images from past s i t u a t i o n s or u n r e a l i s t i c images of upcoming events, the number o f . a v a i l a b l e working memory u n i t s w i t h which t o r e f l e c t upon more r e a l i s t i c , b e t t e r s i t u a t i o n a l l y matched images-of-achievement i s reduced. 9 3 2) Negative a f f e c t w i l l i n f l u e n c e the a b i l i t y to engage PTP by a f f e c t i n g cue p e r c e p t i o n . The negative r e l a t i o n s h i p between s t a t e anxiety and performance has been documented i n the sport environment (Cooley, 1977; Martens. 1977). A ne g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between a n x i e t y and temporal p e r s p e c t i v e has been found (Kraus & Ruiz, 1967: Ruiz & Kraus, 1968). TPM p o s i t s that negative a f f e c t such as anxiety a f f e c t the i n d i v i d u a l ' s a b i l i t y to engage present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e through the i n t e r f e r e n c e of s e 1 f - f o c u s s e d thoughts. Summary of TPM P r o p o s i t i o n s Gjesme (1983) c o n c e p t u a l i s e d temporal p e r s p e c t i v e as a l a t e n t a b i l i t y whose m a n i f e s t a t i o n i s sub j e c t to the e f f e c t s of p a r t i c u l a r aspects of the performance s i t u a t i o n . In accordance wi t h t h i s p r o p o s i t i o n , TPM proposes t h a t : 1) The use of both past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s i n GIOA out s i d e of the performance context enhances i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . The.notion of the c o n t r i b u t i o n of e f f o r t exacted outside of the performance s i t u a t i o n expands upon the understanding of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n provided by a t t r i b u t i o n , c o g n i t i v e and d e c i s i o n t h e o r i e s . 2) Lack of a b i l i t y to engage i n present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e r e s u l t s i n an a c t u a l r e g r e s s i o n t o a p r i m i t i v e , narrow temporal p e r s p e c t i v e under s t r e s s . 3) S e l f - e f f i c a c y perceptions and m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e a f f e c t the width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . S e l f - e f f i c a c y i s p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with i n c r e a s e d use of past and f u t u r e 94 temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s . P o s i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s are a s s o c i a t e d with i n c r e a s e d use of present temporal perspect ive. / 95 OBJECTIVES The three major o b j e c t i v e s of the proposed r e s e a r c h are as f o l l o w s : 1) This t h e s i s examines the c o n s t r u c t v a l i d i t y of the TPM p r o p o s i t i o n . 2) This t h e s i s undertakes an i n q u i r y i n t o the importance of width of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . 3) T h i s t h e s i s i n v e s t i g a t e s the a s s o c i a t i o n between the TPM p r o p o s i t i o n and achievement i n a judgement context. HYPOTHESES 96 Hypothesis 1 I t i s p r e d i c t e d t h a t there w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between high and low achievement groups i n performance contexts r e q u i r i n g i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n , r e g a r d l e s s of le n g t h of experience, on the f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s : Model Part A i ) (GIOA): The high achievement group w i l l y i e l d h i g h e r s c o r e s than the low achievement group on the tendency to d e r i v e problem s o l u t i o n s from c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of both p a s t - a c t u a l and f u t u r e - p o s s i b l e event s c e n a r i o s o u t s i d e of the performance context. i i ) P e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y : The high achievement group w i l l y i e l d h i g h e r s c o r e s on measures of p e r c e i v e d s e l f - e f f i c a c y than low achievement group Model Part B i ) M o t i v a t i o n : The high achievement group w i l l y i e l d h i g h e r means on measures of competence and cooperation m o t i v a t i o n and lower s c o r e s on measures of competition, c o n f l i c t and a g g r e s s i o n m o t i v a t i o n than low achievement groups. i i ) Present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (PTP): The h i g h achievement group w i l l y i e l d h i g h e r s c o r e s than the low achievement group on a measure of the a b i l i t y t o engage PTP under s t r e s s f u l conditions., Hypothesis 2 I n d i v i d u a l s who are hig h i n GIOA and high i n PTP w i l l be d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e i n terms of achievement i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n from i n d i v i d u a l s who are high i n GIOA and low i n PTP. PTP i s p o s i t e d to mediate the e x p r e s s i o n of GIOA i n s t r e s s f u l performance s i t u a t i o n s . T h i s e f f e c t i s p o s i t e d to be due to the importance of PTP cue pickup and matching to GIOA b e s t - f i t a l t e r n a t i v e s i n memory. Hypothesis 3 It i s hypothesized that the f o l l o w i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s w i l l be found: Model Part A i ) GIOA w i l l be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f -e f f i c a c y . Model Part B i i ) PTP and competitive, c o n f l i c t e d and agg r e s s i v e m o t i v a t i o n w i l l be n e g a t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d . i i i ) PTP and cooperative and competence m o t i v a t i o n s w i l l be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d . 98 METHOD The s u b j e c t s used i n t h i s study were 118 ice-hockey o f f i c i a l s from the lower mainland of Vancouver. The sample c o n s i s t e d of 116 male and 2 female o f f i c i a l s r a nging i n age from 14 to 51 years of age. The TPM p r o p o s i t i o n was developed from a s e r i e s of interviews with, and o n - i c e o b s e r v a t i o n s of. a c r o s s -s e c t i o n of o f f i c i a l s i n which i t became apparent that the proposed s e t of TPM v a r i a b l e s were l i k e l y candidates f o r c r i t i c a l determinants of competency i n o f f i c i a t i n g . The r o l e of the o f f i c i a l i n ice-hockey i s t o m a i n t a i n boundaries f o r the behaviour of p a r t i c i p a n t s i n the game with as l i t t l e obvious i n t e r v e n t i o n as p o s s i b l e . The o f f i c i a l who i s high i n the a b i l i t y to make accurate i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n s should be ab l e t o mai n t a i n these boundaries without r e s o r t i n g to more obvious i n t e r v e n t i o n t a c t i c s , by p r e d i c t i n g and s u b t l y i n f l u e n c i n g the beh a v i o u r a l choices that are made by p l a y e r s . Ice-hockey o f f i c i a l s are r e c e r t i f i e d each f a l l i n c l i n i c s h e l d throughout the p r o v i n c e . The c l i n i c s c o n s i s t of 30 to 100 o f f i c i a l s and are d i v i d e d by L e v e l , that i s , each c l i n i c i s designed f o r a p a r t i c u l a r L e v e l from Level One (minor hockey) to Level S i x ( c o l l e g e and j u n i o r hockey). I n d i v i d u a l s are a s s i g n e d to L e v e l One or Two i f they pass a w r i t t e n examination. Assignment to the other f o u r L e v e l s i s by i n v i t a t i o n based on e v a l u a t i o n s and recommendation by experienced o f f i c i a l s . Once / 99 the o f f i c i a l i s q u a l i f i e d he/she may be assigned to i n c r e a s i n g l y more demanding c a l i b r e s of hockey w i t h i n a given p l a y e r age category such as Bantam. Midget or J u n i o r . I n d i v i d u a l s under the age of 14 were d e l e t e d from the analyses as i t was d e s i r a b l e to r e t a i n only those i n d i v i d u a l s who had achieved an age where the achievement of formal o p e r a t i o n a l c a p a b i l i t i e s were probable (Case and G r i f f i n , 1989; Case, 1988; F i s c h e r and Pipp. 1984: Keating and Clark, 1980). A d d i t i o n a l analyses f o r the purposes of v a l i d a t i n g the GIOA and PTP s c a l e s were conducted on 110 t h i r d year undergraduate psychology students on a p a r a l l e l form q u e s t i o n n a i r e d e a l i n g with examination and study judgements and s t r a t e g i e s . I t i s important t o e s t a b l i s h t h at the performance s i t u a t i o n of the o f f i c i a l s under study i s i n f a c t a judgement context. T h i s matter was addressed by a c q u i r i n g a copy of the o f f i c i a l e v a l u a t i o n form which i s u t i l i s e d by o f f i c i a l e v a l u a t o r s to assess the competence of o f f i c i a l s . The r a t i n g s c a l e i n c l u d e s an item " r a t i n g of judgment a b i l i t y " t h a t must be assessed by the e v a l u a t o r . T h i s item supports the c o n t e n t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s t hat judgement i s an important component of the performance s i t u a t i o n under study. Procedure The instruments used i n t h i s study were adm i n i s t e r e d i n the c o n t r o l l e d s e t t i n g of the summer c l i n i c s i n time p e r i o d s of approximately one hour. Student surveys were adm i n i s t e r e d i n the s p r i n g of 1988 i n the undergraduate psychology c l a s s e s . 100 Instruments and Measures 1 The measurement s t r a t e g y taken i n t h i s study was to use a number of o r i g i n a l s c a l e s designed f o r the purpose of the study and which were s p e c i f i c to the sport environment. These new s c a l e s were backed up by s e v e r a l widely used measures of r e p o r t e d r e l i a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y and s e v e r a l o b j e c t i v e and performance measures. In keeping w i t h the philosophy of Gjesme (1983), whose r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t temporal p e r s p e c t i v e may not be aroused i n every s i t u a t i o n , i t was p r e f e r a b l e to c o n s t r u c t s c a l e s that r e f e r r e d s p e c i f i c a l l y to the s i t u a t i o n of i n t e r e s t which was the s p o r t context. A m a n i p u l a t i o n of the degree of s i t u a t i o n a l importance of the o f f i c i a t i n g a c t i v i t y was the overwhelmingly p o s i t i v e response to an item that questioned o f f i c i a l s as to whether they would p a r t i c i p a t e i n the a c t i v i t y of o f f i c i a t i n g without payment. A second reason f o r u t i l i s i n g s p o r t s p e c i f i c s c a l e s was to i n c r e a s e the face v a l i d i t y of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e f o r the respondents i n o r d e r to enhance the degree of c o n s c i e n t i o u s responding. A t h i r d reason was that the s c a l e s are intended t o be used subsequently as p r a c t i c a l , s p o r t s p e c i f i c t o p i s . Model Part A ~ GIOA. An experimental s c a l e was c o n s t r u c t e d c o n s i s t i n g of 11 items that were balance keyed and intended to i n d i c a t e the degree of non-stressed thoughts about the performance context t h a t were concerned w i t h the development of f u t u r e - o r i e n t e d novel s o l u t i o n s t o problems. The content of these items was based on d e s c r i p t i o n s provided by high achievement o f f i c i a l s i n p i l o t 101 i n t e r v i e w s . Items were i n v e s t i g a t e d f o r r e l i a b i l i t i e s and v a l i d i t i e s and a l l 11 items proved s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r s c a l e i n c l u s i o n . A sample item i s : " A f t e r games I l i k e to t h i n k about problems that came up and h o w l might have handled them d i f f e r e n t l y " . (alpha r e l i a b i 1 i t y = . 5 1 4 3 . See appendix f o r t e s t i tems). S e l f - e f f i c a c y . P e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y were measured u s i n g the s e l f - c o n f i d e n c e f a c t o r from Quinlan and J a n i s ' S e l f -Esteem Scale (1982). High scores on the s e l f - e f f i c a c y s c a l e are i n d i c a t i v e of str o n g p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y . A sample item i s : "I expect to do w e l l i n the f u t u r e as an o f f i c i a l " . (Cronbach's alpha=.91). Model Part B PTP. An experimental 20 item s c a l e balance keyed i n the d i r e c t i o n of f o c u s s i n g on present cues was developed from a pool of 30 items. Item content was based on d e s c r i p t i o n s of cue p e r c e p t i o n behaviour provided by h i g h achievement o f f i c i a l s . The s t a t i s t i c a l p r o p e r t i e s of the 30 items were analyzed and item s t a t i s t i c s , r e l i a b i l i t i e s and v a l i d i t i e s were c o n s i d e r e d i n the f i n a l choice of 20 items. High s c o r e s on the PTP s c a l e are i n d i c a t i v e of a b i l i t y to ma i n t a i n focus on the present and t o p e r c e i v e r e l e v a n t s i t u a t i o n a l cues. A sample item i s : "I r a r e l y miss much of what i s going on around me i n a game", (alpha re 1 i a b i l i t y = . 7 4 3 5 . See appendix f o r t e s t items). M o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e . M o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e was as s e s s e d u s i n g Butt's Sport M o t i v a t i o n S c a l e s (Butt, 1979:1987). The f i v e 5-item s c a l e s are keyed i n the d i r e c t i o n of coo p e r a t i o n , competition, competence, a g g r e s s i o n and c o n f l i c t . S c a l e items r e f e r to expressions of a f f e c t a s s o c i a t e d with each m o t i v a t i o n a l type. A sample item i s : "When I am o f f i c i a t i n g I o f t e n f e e l h appier than I am than doing anything e l s e (competence item)", ( s p l i t h a l f r e l i a b i l i t y = . 5 - . 8 ) Other Measures Used i n t h i s Study C a t t e l l ' s F a c t o r M S c a l e . C a t t e l l ' s F a c t o r M s c a l e i s a measure of " a u t i a : a t r a i t of general tendency t o be a u t i s t i c , i . e . to p e r c e i v e r e a l i t y f a l s e l y as i n accord with one's wishes, a l s o wrapped up i n i n n e r i m a g i n a t i v e developments, bohemian, c a r e l e s s of p r a c t i c a l i t i e s " ( C a t t e l l , 1965). C a t t e l l ' s F a c t o r C S c a l e . C a t t e l l ' s F a c t o r C s c a l e i s a measure of "ego s t r e n g t h : a source t r a i t showing i t s e l f i n good emotional s t a b i l i t y and c a p a c i t y t o cope with emotional d i f f i c u l t i e s . . . ( t h e o p p o s i t e pole of which)...manifests i t s e l f i n emotional i n s t a b i l i t y and being e a s i l y upset and moody." ( C a t t e l l , 1965). . P h y s i c a l symptoms c h e c k l i s t . T h i s was a 10 item c h e c k l i s t of p h y s i c a l symptoms p e r c e i v e d by the i n d i v i d u a l around game time and intended as an o b j e c t i v e somatic c o r r e l a t e of negative a f f e c t . GIOA and PTP c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s . A s e t of items intended as o b j e c t i v e v a l i d a t i o n s of experimental s c a l e s i n c l u d i n g p r e f e r r e d types of books, l e i s u r e 103 a c t i v i t i e s , school grade over previous year, team c a p t a i n c y , number of l o t t e r y t i c k e t purchases per month, number of f i s t f i g h t s over l i f e t i m e , chess a b i l i t y , t a r d i n e s s , number of t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s and t i c k e t s r e l a t i v e to age, p o l i t i c a l p r e f e r e n c e and frequency of p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n v i c a r i o u s l e a r n i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s . These items were u t i l i s e d i n two p r i n c i p l e component analyses to produce two f i r s t p r i n c i p l e components which served as c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s f o r the v a l i d a t i o n of GIOA and PTP (see appendix). Sample items are: "What k i n d of books/movies do you p r e f e r ? (GIOA)"; " How many t r a f f i c a c c i d e n t s have you been i n v o l v e d i n f o r which you were the d r i v e r ? ( P T P ) " . O v e r a l l achievement c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e . Overa11 Achievement as an o f f i c i a l was measured by t a k i n g scores on the f i r s t p r i n c i p l e component of a set of items r e f e r r i n g to achieved L e v e l , c a l i b r e of hockey o f f i c i a t e d the p r e v i o u s year, number of games assigned per month over the l a s t year, number of p l a y o f f games assigned i n the past year, number of l e t t e r s of complaint from coaches and parents d i v i d e d by years of experience, frequency of comments from peers on the implementation of novel s o l u t i o n s and frequency of comments from peers on the implementation of u n s u i t a b l e s o l u t i o n s . A sample item i s : "What c a l i b r e of hockey d i d you p r i m a r i l y o f f i c i a t e l a s t year ( s p e c i f y B, A, AA or AAA c a l i b r e ) ? " . I r i t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e . A measure of the s u i t a b i l i t y and o r i g i n a l i t y of performance s i t u a t i o n s o l u t i o n s and a b i l i t y to p l a n ahead and deal e f f e c t i v e l y with odd 104 s i t u a t i o n s was generated by means of a p r i n c i p l e component a n a l y s i s on 5 items r e l a t e d to peer r e p o r t s on these a b i l i t i e s . T h i s v a r i a b l e was developed with the i n t e n t i o n of conducting a more s p e c i f i c a n a l y s i s of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n than that used i n the main model a n a l y s i s . The main model a n a l y s i s was conducted u s i n g the more robust O v e r a l l Achievement v a r i a b l e . A sample item i s : "I have been complimented by o f f i c i a l performance e v a l u a t o r s on my use of o r i g i n a l s o l u t i o n s to game problems". Scores on the f i r s t p r i n c i p l e component of t h i s a n a l y s i s formed the c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e . The r a t i o n a l e u n d e r l y i n g the use of t h i s v a r i a b l e i s t h a t use of s u c c e s s f u l and o r i g i n a l problem-solving s t r a t e g i e s i n the performance s i t u a t i o n i s presumed to be an index of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . According to i n f o r m a t i o n provided i n the p i l o t i n t e r v i e w s and o b s e r v a t i o n s , the t a s k of an o f f i c i a l i s t o p e r c e i v e , i n t e r p r e t and p r e d i c t behaviour and to intervene on a s u b t l e l e v e l b e f o r e i t becomes necessary to c a l l p e n a l t i e s . The c o r r e l a t i o n between I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n and O v e r a l l Achievement as an o f f i c i a l c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s was .4860 (p <.000). T h i s a s s o c i a t i o n between O v e r a l l Achievement and I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n has two i m p l i c a t i o n s : 1) I n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s an important p a r t of the composite of a b i l i t i e s t h a t are r e q u i r e d of a competent o f f i c i a l . 2) Analyses i n t h i s study based on o v e r a l l achievement imply a s i g n i f i c a n t i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n component. I 105 DESIGN AND ANALYSES A n a l y s i s 1 A two by two MANOVA d e s i g n of achievement by years of experience was u t i l i s e d , f o l l o w e d by u n i v a r i a t e ANOVAS on dependent v a r i a b l e s . O f f i c i a l s were d i v i d e d i n t o the f o u r groups based on the O v e r a l l Achievement v a r i a b l e y i e l d i n g two groups of h i g h and low O v e r a l l Achievement, and a d i v i s i o n of groups i n t o low and high Years of E x p e r i e n c e . Group d i v i s i o n s were based on median s p l i t s on O v e r a l l Achievement and Years of Experience. The f o l l o w i n g values were u t i l i s e d f o r the median s p l i t s : a) Low ye a r s of experience were from 0 to 6 (mean=3.15) and hig h y e a r s of experience were from 7 to 30 (mean=12.63). Low O v e r a l l Achievement ranged from -1.57 t o -.999 (mean=-.863) and h i g h O v e r a l l Achievement ranged from 0 to 1.758 (mean=.863). The dependent v a r i a b l e s i n t h i s a n a l y s i s were : 1) GIOA 2) S e l f - e f f i c a c y 3) PTP 4) Aggressive m o t i v a t i o n 5) C o n f l i c t e d m o t i v a t i o n 6) Competence m o t i v a t i o n * 7) Cooperative m o t i v a t i o n 8) Competitive m o t i v a t i o n 106 A n a l y s i s 2 A two by two ANOVA design of GIOA by PTP on the dependent v a r i a b l e of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n was used. A n a l y s i s 3 Pearson c o r r e l a t i o n s were computed f o r the f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s : i ) GIOA and S e l f - E f f i c a c y i i ) a) PTP and Competitive, C o n f l i c t e d and Aggressive M o t i v a t i o n s . b) PTP and Cooperative and Competence M o t i v a t i o n s . i 107 RESULTS In order t o t e s t the experimental hypotheses, a s e r i e s of d e s c r i p t i v e and i n f e r e n t i a l t e s t s were performed. These i n c l u d e d a n a l y s e s of v a r i a n c e , post-hoc t e s t s and c o r r e l a t i o n a l indexes. The r e s u l t s of each of these t e s t s w i n be reviewed i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s . A number of experimental s c a l e s designed f o r , the purpose of t h i s study were developed. As some of the r e s u l t s of the major analyses were achieved u t i l i s i n g these experimental s c a l e s , i n v e s t i g a t i o n of the v a l i d i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y of these s c a l e s was of c r i t i c a l importance to the r e s u l t s . The psychometric p r o p e r t i e s of these s c a l e s are explored more f u l l y i n the appendix. A n a l y s i s 1: I n v e s t i g a t i o n of Group D i f f e r e n c e s i n Terms of  O v e r a l l Achievement and Years of Experience on TPM V a r i a b l e s As p r e d i c t e d , a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e was found between groups i n terms of O v e r a l l Achievement, r e g a r d l e s s of Years of Experience (Table 1 and Table 2). The main e f f e c t f o r O v e r a l l Achievement was s i g n i f i c a n t , F( 1, 95) =5 . 8730, p_ < .001. The main e f f e c t f o r Years of Experience was not s i g n i f i c a n t , F(1,95)=.3010, p_ > .05. No s i g n i f i c a n t i n t e r a c t i o n was found between the independent v a r i a b l e s of Years of Experience and O v e r a l l Achievement, F_(l, 95) = .2498, p_ > . 05. U n i v a r i a t e ANOVA's f o l l o w i n g the s i g n i f i c a n t main e f f e c t of O v e r a l l Achievement were conducted (Table 3 and Table 4). High O v e r a l l Achievement group means were s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r 108 than low O v e r a l l Achievement groups on GIOA, S e l f - e f f i c a c y , PTP, Competence M o t i v a t i o n , and Cooperative M o t i v a t i o n (See Table 4 fo r group means). Competitive M o t i v a t i o n . Aggressive M o t i v a t i o n and C o n f l i c t M o t i v a t i o n d i d not d i s t i n g u i s h groups i n terms of O v e r a l l Achievement. Table 1 MANOVA on O v e r a l l Achievement by Years of Experience Source of Approx. S i g . V a r i a t i o n DF F F. O v e r a l l Achiev 1 5.8730 p < .001 Years of Exper. 1 .3010 p > .05 Over.Ach x Yrs.Exp. 1 .2498 p > .05 N: O f f i c i a l ' s N of Cases=99. Table 2 C e l l Frequencies f o r MANOVA on O v e r a l l Achievement by Years of Experience Group N Low O.A Low Yrsex 28 Low O.A High Yrsex 21 High O.A Low Yrsex 24 High O.A High Yrsex 26 109 Tab l e 3 U n i v a r i a t e ANOVAS F o l l o w i n g S i g n i f i c a n t MANOVA on O v e r a l l Achievement Source Approx. S i g . of V a r i a t i o n DF F F GIOA 1 18. .4819 P < .001 SELF-EFFIC. 1 23. ,8819 P < .001 PTP 1 6, .1947 P < .01 AGGRESSION 1 ,1314 P > .05 CONFLICT 1 .0700 P > .05 COMPETITION 1 ,0002 P > .05 COOPERATION 1 4. .2144 P < .05 COMPETENCE 1 7. ,9430 P < .01 N o t e . O f f i c i a l s : N=99 Table 4 Comparison of Group Means on U n i v a r i a t e ANOVAS F o l l o w i n g S i g n i f i c a n t MANOVA V a r i a b l e Low O v e r a l l High O v e r a l l Achievement Mean SD Mean SD GIOA 35, .020 3, .992 38 .431 3. .848 SELF-EFFIC. 34, .490 5. .057 39. , 157 3. ,523 PTP 64, .928 8. .536 68, .587 6, . 115 AGGRESSION 13, .569 2. ,900 13. , 691 2. ,822 CONFLICT 11, .255 3, .346 11, . 196 2, .546 COMPETITION 14, .784 3. ,460 14, ,765 2. ,534 COOPERATION 18, .588 2. .751 19, .784 3, . 177 COMPETENCE . 16. .039 2. ,986 17. ,608 2. .721 Note. N of Groups: Low O v e r a l l Achievement =52 High O v e r a l l Achievement=47 110 A n a l y s i s 2: The Me d i a t i n g E f f e c t s of PTP on GIOA S i g n i f i c a n t main e f f e c t s were found f o r both GIOA, F(l,108)=19.325, 2 <.001. and PTP, F (1,108)=4.526. p. < .05 on the dependent v a r i a b l e of I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n . S i g n i f i c a n t i n t e r a c t i o n e f f e c t s between the two independent v a r i a b l e s were a l s o found, F(1,108)=6.993, p. < .001 (see Table 5 and 6). Simple e f f e c t s a n a l y s i s on the i n t e r a c t i o n r e s u l t e d i n a f i n d i n g of s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between means f o r groups h i g h on GIOA on PTP, F ( l , 54)=9.232, p. < .001. Table 5 Two-Factor ANOVA of GIOA by PTP on I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n Source of Approx. S i g . V a r i a t i o n DF F Main E f f e c t s 2 * 13.0612 p < . .001 GIOA 1 19.3253 P < .001 PTP 1 4.5262 P < .05 2-way In t . GIOA PTP 1 6.9931 P < .001 Note. O f f i c i a l s : N of cases=112 I l l Table 6 Means and N's f o r Two-Way ANOVA on I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n Group Mean N Low GIOA -Low PTP 34.61 33 Low GIOA -Hiqh PTP 32.78, 27 High GIOA-Low PTP 43.21 28 High GIOA-High PTP 59.19 27 A n a l y s i s 3: A s s o c i a t i o n s Between Model V a r i a b l e s Model P a r t A. GIOA was found t o be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h S e l f - E f f i c a c y i n the o f f i c i a l ' s a n a l y s i s (r=.25, p_ < .01). Student a n a l y s e s shoVed a n o n - s i g n i f i c a n t trend i n the same d i r e c t i o n (r=.13, p_ > .05) Model P a r t B. I t was p o s i t e d t h a t Aggressive M o t i v a t i o n , C o n f l i c t M o t i v a t i o n , Competitive M o t i v a t i o n would be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d . Low engagement of PTP and Competitive M o t i v a t i o n were p o s i t e d t o be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d . The r e s u l t s demonstrated the p o s i t e d a s s o c i a t i o n s between Aggression M o t i v a t i o n , C o n f l i c t M o t i v a t i o n , C o m p e t i t i v e M o t i v a t i o n and PTP i n the o f f i c i a l ' s analyses (Table 7 ) . Student analyses demonstrated comparable r e s u l t s except f o r the a s s o c i a t i o n between Aggressive M o t i v a t i o n and PTP. 112 Table 7 C o r r e l a t i o n s between Aggression, C o n f l i c t and. Competition M o t i v a t i o n s and PTP Aggression C o n f l i c t Competition PTP Aggression .1909 .3617** -.2000* .1624 .3170** -.0809 C o n f l i c t .2360* -.4544** .2251* -.2657* Competition -.3483** -.1509 PTP Note: Upper Value: N of cases: O f f i c i a l s 118 Lower Value: N of cases: Students 110 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p_ < .01 ** p_ < .001 b) Cooperative and Competence M o t i v a t i o n s , and engagement of PTP were p o s i t e d to be p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d . Proposed p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n s between Competence and Co o p e r a t i v e M o t i v a t i o n s were found (Table 8). The p r e d i c t e d p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between PTP and Competence M o t i v a t i o n was found. The proposed p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between PTP and Cooperative M o t i v a t i o n was not supported i n the o f f i c i a l ' s analyses but was supported i n the student analyses. 113 Table 8 C o r r e l a t i o n s between Cooperation and Competence M o t i v a t i o n s and PTP Cooperation Competence PTP Cooperation .3760** ' -.0083 .3734** .2601* Competence .2101 .3195** PTP Note. Upper Value: N of cases : O f f i c i a l s 118 Lower Value: N of cases : Students 110 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p_ < .01 ** P < .001 114 DISCUSSION The TPM Model One of the most important o b j e c t i v e s i n t h i s study was achi e v e d . The hy p o t h e s i s was l a r g e l y confirmed t h a t the s e t of v a r i a b l e s p e r t i n e n t to the proposed model of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n are important d i s t i n g u i s h i n g v a r i a b l e s i n terms of o v e r a l l achievement as an o f f i c i a l . The f i n d i n g s of the o v e r a l l achievement a n a l y s i s support p r e v i o u s f i n d i n g s t h a t achievement i s p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h span of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e , p a r t i c u l a r l y with the e x t e n s i o n of p e r s p e c t i v e i n t o the f u t u r e (Born, 1984; Hyman, 1988). The f i n d i n g s of t h i s t h e s i s are encouraging f o r the prospect of c o n t i n u i n g r e s e a r c h i n the development of the proposed model with methodology and analyses a p p r o p r i a t e to the i n v e s t i g a t i o n of causal model pathways. GIOA: C o n t r i b u t i o n s of A c t i v i t y Outside the Performance S i t u a t i o n  to I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n I t appears that GIOA i s a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t o r to the d i s t i n c t i o n between achievement groups. T h i s i s a r e s u l t which runs counter t o i n t u i t i v e n o t i o n s t h a t , u l t i m a t e l y , i t i s a c t u a l experience that p r o v i d e s s o l u t i o n s to a l l i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n problems. In f a c t , i n t h i s study, y e a r s of experience was not a s i g n i f i c a n t main e f f e c t nor d i d years of experience c o n t r i b u t e to an i n t e r a c t i o n e f f e c t with achievement. Years of experie n c e showed only a m i l d , n o n s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n with o v e r a l l achievement. The c o n c l u s i o n to be \ drawn from t h i s r e s u l t i s that i t i s not experience t h a t c o n t r i b u t e s t o achievement as much as i t i s what one does w i t h the memories from one's experience. The r e s t r u c t u r i n g and m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of s o l u t i o n s i n o u t - o f - p e r f o r m a n c e - s i t u a t i o n contexts has an important r e l a t i o n s h i p with achievement. T h i s r e s u l t i s . i n f a c t , consonant wi t h the f i n d i n g s of many s p o r t r e s e a r c h e r s that daydreams are c o n s i d e r e d to be an important aspect of mental l i f e t h a t can c o n t r i b u t e to h e a l t h (Singer & Switzer, 1980), that d i v e r g e n t t h i n k i n g i s an important f u n c t i o n of daydreams (Straub & W i l l i a m s , 1984), t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s d i f f e r i n the a b i l i t y to imagine v i s u a l l y (Sheehan, 1972; S i n g e r & Antrobus, 1963; Singer & Switzer, 1980) and that some i n d i v i d u a l s use daydreams i n a c o n s t r u c t i v e manner t o s o l v e problems (Huba et a l . , 1977; Singer & Antrobus, 1963). The GIOA concept i s s i m i l a r to the ' c o n s t r u c t i v e a l t e r n a t i v i s m ' proposed by K e l l y (1955). K e l l y p o s i t e d t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s engage i n a l t e r n a t i v e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of s i m i l a r events e i t h e r by c o n c e p t u a l i s i n g d i f f e r e n t i n d i v i d u a l s i n the same event o r the same i n d i v i d u a l i n repeated involvements i n the same event. K e l l y t h e o r i s e d t h a t t h i s i n t e r p r e t i v e process was at the ce n t e r of i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s and c h a n n e l l e d b e h a v i o u r a l responses. K e l l y s t i p u l a t e d , however, t h a t any personal t h e o r y was s u b j e c t to a l t e r a t i o n based on c o n f l i c t i n g f a c t s from ongoing experience. The c o n c e p t i o n of personal theory g e n e r a t i o n from imaginative sources was not a theme of K e l l y ' s p r o p o s i t i o n . GIOA would be c o n c e p t u a l i s e d as the same i n d i v i d u a l i n v o l v e d i n d i f f e r e n t events or d i f f e r e n t outcomes f o r the same event. It i s apparent from the r e s u l t s of t h i s t h e s i s that the i n d i v i d u a l ' s use of imagination can c o n t r i b u t e s u b s t a n t i a l l y t o the development of a l t e r n a t i v e s . GIOA i s a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i s t i n g u i s h i n g v a r i a b l e i n terms of behaviour and achievement i n judgement contexts. The importance of out-of-judgement-context i n t u i t i v e analyses can not be overemphasised. The r e s u l t s of t h i s study have supported the n o t i o n that IOA m o d i f i c a t i o n can occur o u t s i d e of the judgement context. In terms of d e c i s i o n theory w i t h r e s p e c t to i n f o r m a t i o n - p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y , GIOA r e l i e v e s the i n d i v i d u a l of the task of c o n s t r u c t i n g d a t a - d r i v e n t h e o r i e s w i t h i n the performance s i t u a t i o n . U t i l i s a t i o n of GIOA s o l v e s the f o l l o w i n g i n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g problems o u t l i n e d by d e c i s i o n theory (Alexander, 1979; Beach and M i t c h e l l , 1978; Ben Zur and B r e z n i t z , 1981: G o l d i n 1978; P i t z et a l . , 1980): 1) Custom d e s i g n i n g s o l u t i o n s consumes much of the i n f o r m a t i o n -p r o c e s s i n g c a p a c i t y of the i n d i v i d u a l i n the performance s i t u a t i o n . 2) Time pressure i n performance s i t u a t i o n s l i m i t s the number of a l t e r n a t i v e s developed to a small number. 3) Performance s i t u a t i o n i n f o r m a t i o n o v e r l o a d c o n t r i b u t e s to the use of s i m p l i f y i n g h e u r i s t i c s , which may i n t e r f e r e w i t h d e c i s i o n or judgement q u a l i t y . 4) Information o v e r l o a d i n the performance s i t u a t i o n l i m i t s the number of cues p e r c e i v e d and consequently the number of 117 a l t e r n a t i v e s generated. The f u n c t i o n a l aspect of preparedness has been noted (Fiske & Kinder, 1980; Walker & Murphy. 1982). P r e p a r a t o r y r e h e a r s a l of s c r i p t s e l e v a t e s the i n d i v i d u a l ' s e s t i m a t i o n s of the p r o b a b i l i t y of occurrence of rehearsed events ( C a r r o l l , 1978). T h i s aspect of r e h e a r s a l i s r e l a t e d to the ' i l l u s i o n of v a l i d i t y ' i n which p o s i t i v e i n s t a n c e s are used more r e a d i l y than n e g a t i v e instances (Smedslund, 1963). From the r e s u l t s of t h i s t h e s i s , i t appears that r e h e a r s a l of imaginary s c r i p t s allows the i n d i v i d u a l to e n t e r t a i n new p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r s i t u a t i o n a l outcomes by making the ' i l . l u s i o n of v a l i d i t y ' serve a u s e f u l purpose. In other words, r e h e a r s a l of imaginary s c r i p t s allows those s c r i p t s to become part of the i n d i v i d u a l ' s s t o r e d s c r i p t r e s o u r c e . Schemas have been d e s c r i b e d as r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e , sometimes automatic, plans of a c t i o n (Showers & Cantor, 1985) developed spontaneously w i t h experience. In p e r i o d s of s t r e s s the i n d i v i d u a l i s p o s i t e d to f a l l back on these schemas or 'well-worn s o c i a l r o u t i n e s ' (Cantor, 1990) . T h i s t h e s i s has p o s i t e d and supported a more dynamic, d e l i b e r a t e , o u t - o f - p e r f o r m a n c e - s i t u a t i o n process of schema development i n which the 'well-worn r o u t i n e s ' are under constant r e c o n s t r u c t i o n , r e a p p r a i s a l and r e v i s i o n . T h i s GIOA process i s analogous to an o u t - o f - p e r f o r m a n c e - s i t u a t i o n i l l -d e f i n e d decision-making process. . The d e 1 i b e r a t e n e s s proposed i n TPM may be compared to the notion of 'defensive pessimism' proposed by Cantor (1989). Defensive pessimism r e f e r s to an a p r i o r i approach to t a s k s i n which e x p e c t a t i o n s f o r outcome are 118 lowered p r i o r to the task and c o n f r o n t i v e coping i s u t i l i s e d to deal w i t h anxiety. The e f f e c t i v e n e s s of d e f e n s i v e pessimism l i e s i n the preparatory aspect (Brehm et a l . , 1983). TPM concurs with the n o t i o n of preparatory, c o n f r o n t i v e coping but not with the aspect of lowering e x p e c t a t i o n s p r i o r to an event. I n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the r e a l i s t i c nature of e x p e c t a t i o n s i s at the very heart of TPM and i t i s t h a t f a c t o r which d i s t i n g u i s h e s i n d i v i d u a l s i n terms of achievement. T h i s t h e s i s has proposed and supported the n o t i o n that the nature of an e x p e c t a t i o n s e t s the l e v e l of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n that can r e s u l t i n performance s i t u a t i o n s as i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n must by n e c e s s i t y be l i n k e d to r e a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s and not e g o - p r o t e c t i n g e x p e c t a t i o n s . T h i s study has found that GIOA or schema, adapta t i o n i t s e l f f u n c t i o n s as a coping mechanism both p r e c e d i n g and f o l l o w i n g negative outcomes by ensuring the i n d i v i d u a l that f u t u r e occurrences of s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n s w i l l be more a c c u r a t e l y p r e d i c t e d and p r o v i d e d f o r . In a d d i t i o n , schema 'readiness' through GIOA enhances performance and t h e r e f o r e p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y . Cantor (Cantor, 1990) r e v e a l s t h a t d e f e n s i v e pessimism r e s u l t s i n h i g h c o s t s i n anxiety f o r the i n d i v i d u a l and l i k e n s the process t o a c o s t - b e n e f i t t r a d e o f f . In TPM, the process of c o n f r o n t i n g p o t e n t i a l l y a n x i e t y - p r o d u c i n g f a i l u r e s or expected d i f f i c u l t i e s i s eased by the prospect of b e i n g b e t t e r prepared. T h i s n o t i o n has been supported by Showers (1988) who has contended that f o c u s s i n g s t r i c t l y on concrete 'how t o ' s ' of tasks prevents anxious ruminations. Cantor (1990) and Wright and M i s c h e l (1987) have poi n t e d out the n e c e s s i t y f o r low environmental demands and repeated s c r i p t r e h e a r s a l i n i n t e r v e n t i o n s to modify e x i s t i n g schemas. These non-stressed r e h e a r s a l s are e x a c t l y the c o n d i t i o n s d e f i n e d f o r GIOA. I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g that Cantor s t a t e s that d e f e n s i v e pessimism i s non-adaptive because i t focuses the i n d i v i d u a l on l o w - p r o b a b i l i t y outcomes. I t i s p r e c i s e l y the r e h e a r s a l of l o w - p r o b a b i l i t y outcomes i n a d d i t i o n to h i g h p r o b a b i l i t y outcomes t h a t d i s t i n g u i s h e s s u p e r i o r i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t o r s i n t h i s t h e s i s . M o t i v a t i o n t o engage i n GIOA: The I n f l u e n c e of S e l f - e f f i c a c y on  Schema Adaptations B u i l d i n g on K e l l e y ' s (1973) work, r e s e a r c h e r s have d e l i n e a t e d schemas, s c r i p t s and e p i s o des as fundamental c o g n i t i v e u n i t s of p e r s o n a l i t y (Cantor, 1990). These schemas that shape the way'in which i n d i v i d u a l s p e r c e i v e and i n t e r p r e t events are c o n c e p t u a l i s e d as personal s t y l e s f o r seeing the world (Cantor, 1990) . The approach taken i n t h i s t h e s i s , which i s supported by the r e s u l t s , i s t h a t schemas are r e f l e c t e d i n personal s t y l e and a r e a l s o i n f l u e n c e d by i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n the w i l l i n g n e s s and a b i l i t y to adapt personal s t y l e s to changing environments i n the s e r v i c e of p r e d i c t i n g events i n those environments. T h i s view of schemas i s a more dynamic one than that p o s i t e d p r e v i o u s l y (Baumeister and Scher, 1988; Cantor, 1990; E p s t e i n , 1973; N i s b e t t & Ross, 1980) i n which the i n d i v i d u a l i s p i c t u r e d as r e l a t i v e l y r e s i s t a n t to schema m o d i f i c a t i o n . 120 Several t h e o r i s t s have p o s i t e d t h a t schema m o d i f i c a t i o n occurs p r i m a r i l y as a response to c o n f l i c t or overwhelming l i f e events (Stewart, 1989; V e r s o f f , 1983). Other r e s e a r c h e r s p o s i t that p e r c e p t i o n s of f u t u r e u t i l i t y a f f e c t the degree to which temporal p e r s p e c t i v e w i l l be engaged (Agarwal and T i w a r i , 1988; Gjesme, 1983). The view of the i n d i v i d u a l i n TPM i s more consonant with the l a t t e r p r o f i l e . T h i s c o n c e p t i o n has a l s o been proposed by Markus and Nurius (1986) who suggest that the i n d i v i d u a l invokes m u l t i p l e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s on past, present and f u t u r e s e l v e s with the idea of a t t a i n i n g an i d e a l s e l f (Higgens et a l . , 1985). D e c i s i o n t h e o r i s t s have p o s i t e d that the e x p e c t a t i o n of personal setbacks, goal attainment, the c o n t r i b u t i o n s of p e r c e i v e d d i s c r e p a n c i e s between e x i s t i n g cues and d e s i r e d s t a t e s d r i v e s the i n d i v i d u a l to engage i n the decision-making process (Dyckman, 1981; J a n i s & Mann, 1977; Newell & Simon, 1972; Soelberg, 1967). I t i s t h i s p u r s u i t of the i d e a l s e l f , i n which schematic change i s r e f e r e n c e d to i n t e r n a l standards, that has promoted the study v i a TPM of the r o l e of s e l f - e f f i c a c y (Bandura, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1986; Bandura et a l . . 1963; Bandura & Cervone, 1983) i n the e l i c i t a t i o n of IOA or schematic e v o l u t i o n . The existence of i n d i v i d u a l d i f f e r e n c e s i n p e r c e p t i o n s of s e l f - e f f i c a c y has been shown i n t h i s t h e s i s to be r e l a t e d to d i f f e r e n t i a l p r o c l i v i t i e s f o r the t r i a d i c temporal engagement that i s a s s o c i a t e d with schema or IOA a d a p t a t i o n . Markus and Nurius (1987) a l l u d e d to t h i s c o n n e c t i o n when they V r e p o r t e d that absence of p o s i t i v e images of f u t u r e s e l v e s lead to 121 d i f f i c u l t i e s i n m o b i l i s i n g f o r s p e c i f i c a c t i o n i n the present. TPM a s s e r t s that the i n d i v i d u a l needs to be conceived of as f a l l i n g on a continuum of being w i l l i n g to r e p e t i t i v e l y address p a r t i c u l a r problems i n order to reach s e l f - g o a l s ( S t e e l e , 1988). The Role of PTP i n I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n The r e s u l t s of t h i s study i n d i c a t e that PTP i s an e s s e n t i a l component of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . These r e s u l t s support N i d e f f e r ' s (1976. 1979. 1981; N i d e f f e r & Sharp, 1978) content i o n t h a t broad-external a t t e n t i o n or PTP i s an important part of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . The performance s i t u a t i o n i s the point i n time at which a l l t h r e e . p o i n t s of the temporal t r i a d come together i n the s e r v i c e of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . The importance of PTP as a mediator of judgements d e r i v e d through GIOA l i e s i n the f a c t that i f the s i t u a t i o n a l cues are not a c c u r a t e l y p e r c e i v e d then the IOA s e l e c t e d from memory w i l l be inadequate. TPM proposed the n o t i o n t h a t the p i c k i n g up of s i t u a t i o n a l cues to match to IOA i n memory was i n t e r f e r e d w i t h by the f i l l i n g of s h o r t term memory with negative images stemming from aggressive m o t i v a t i o n or c o n f l i c t m o t i v a t i o n . T h i s lack of a b i l i t y to engage PTP stemmed from the f a c t that the number of a v a i l a b l e working memory u n i t s with which to r e f l e c t upon more r e a l i s t i c , b e t t e r s i t u a t i o n a l l y matched images-of-achievement i s reduced (Huttenlocher & Burke, 1976; Pascua1-Leone, 1970). D e c i s i o n theory r e f e r s t o t h i s point i n the d e c i s i o n process as tha t time when the i n d i v i d u a l must monitor the performance 122 s i t u a t i o n environment to p i c k up cues i n d i c a t i n g a d i s c r e p a n c y between e x i s t i n g and d e s i r e d s t a t e s ( J a n i s & Mann, 1977; M i l l e r & S t a r r . 1967; Mintzberg et a l . , 1976: Steinbruner, 1974). T h i s t h e s i s has p o s i t e d that the e x i s t i n g s t a t e i s present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e ,-the d e s i r e d s t a t e s stem not only from past, but from both past and future temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s . T h i s i s the p o i n t at which a l l three temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s i n t e r s e c t i n the p u r s u i t of accuracy i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . I t i s a l s o at t h i s p o i n t that the temporal span t h a t may have achieved optimal width o u t s i d e of the performance s i t u a t i o n , i n the engagement of both f u t u r e and past temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s , can s u f f e r decrements i n m a n i f e s t a t i o n that resemble e a r l i e r developmental periods (Inhelder & P i a g e t , 1958; Lens & G a i l y , 1980; V e r s t r a a t e n , 1980). Kastenbaum (1987) pointed out the n e c e s s i t y of i n t e g r a t i n g past, present and f u t u r e i n t o a sense of c o n t i n u i n g s e l f . E r i k s o n (1964) t h e o r i s e d that the whole person was developed from a sense of the importance of what had been and what c o u l d be. Freud (1953, 1958) p o s i t e d the importance i n s h i f t s i n temporal p e r s p e c t i v e as a means of a v o i d i n g p a t h o l o g i c fragmentation of the p e r s o n a l i t y . Other authors- have p o i n t e d out the importance of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and freedom from the events of the past that can come wit h m a t u r i t y (Greene, 1986; Hyman, 1988; Savickas, 1984; Strumpf, 1987; Tismer, 1987). The c r u c i a l ' i t y of present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to the i n t e g r a t i o n of the past, present and f u t u r e has been demonstrated i n the work of t h i s t h e s i s . The r e s u l t s show that an i n d i v i d u a l w i t h a s t r o n g 123 past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s not maximally e f f e c t i v e i n engaging i n i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n without a s t r o n g present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . I t i s c u r i o u s t h a t c u r r e n t s t u d i e s of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e have concentrated on the c o n t r i b u t i o n of f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e to achievement w i t h a r e l a t i v e d i s r e g a r d f o r PTP (Gjesme, 1983; Greene, 1986; Savickas, 1984; Tismer, 1987). Acco r d i n g to the r e s u l t s of the TPM study, PTP can s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t the a b i l i t y of the i n d i v i d u a l to u t i l i s e past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s i n the process of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n . Gjesme (1983) a l l u d e d to the p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t temporal p e r s p e c t i v e might not manifest i t s e l f i n every s i t u a t i o n . I t can be concluded from the r e s u l t s of t h i s t h e s i s t h a t context s p e c i f i c i t y , p a r t i c u l a r l y with r e s p e c t to the e f f e c t s of s t r e s s on PTP, i s a c r u c i a l determinant of e x p r e s s i o n of the true width of an i n d i v i d u a l ' s temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . I t might be proposed that the decrements i n temporal p e r s p e c t i v e noted by Lomranz (1985) and B e i s e r (1987) might be an i n s t a n c e of a s i m i l a r phenomenon where t r u e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e was masked by s i t u a t i o n a l e f f e c t s on one of the three p e r s p e c t i v e s . I n f l u e n c e s on PTP: M o t i v a t i o n a l V a r i a b l e s The model of s p o r t m o t i v a t i o n proposed by Butt (Butt, 1987) was supported by the c o r r e l a t i o n a l analyses i n t h i s study. Many of the proposed a s s o c i a t i o n s between PTP and B u t t ' s (1987) model of a g g r e s s i v e m o t i v a t i o n , c o n f l i c t m o t i v a t i o n , competence m o t i v a t i o n , c o o p e r a t i v e m o t i v a t i o n and c o m p e t i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n 124 were found. S p e c i f i c a l l y , i t was found that p o s i t i v e m otivations are a s s o c i a t e d with i n c r e a s e d engagement of PTP, while negative m o t i v a t i o n s are a s s o c i a t e d with decreased engagement of PTP. I t may be concluded from these r e s u l t s t h a t the f i v e m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s and a s s o c i a t e d a f f e c t s are a v a l i d component of the TPM p r o p o s i t i o n . With r e s p e c t to m o t i v a t i o n s a s s o c i a t e d with negative a f f e c t , the' f i n d i n g s of t h i s study r e v e a l a s t r o n g e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o n f l i c t m o t i v a t i o n and PTP, than between aggressive m o t i v a t i o n and PTP. T h i s f i n d i n g may be a t t r i b u t e d to the d i s t i n c t i o n between i n t e r n a l i t y and e x t e r n a l i t y of a t t e n t i o n a l d i r e c t i o n d e s c r i b e d by N i d e f f e r (1976, 1979, 1981; N i d e f f e r & Sharp, 1978). Butt's model addressed the n o t i o n of the p r i m a r i l y e x t e r n a l o r i e n t a t i o n of aggression, c o n f l i c t e d and c o m p e t i t i v e m o t i v a t i o n s , versus the i n t e r n a l o r i e n t a t i o n of competence and c o o p e r a t i v e o r i e n t a t i o n s (Butt, 1976). B u t t ' s model a l l o w s f o r c r o s s o v e r s i n e x t e r n a l - i n t e r n a l o r i e n t a t i o n s but s t r e s s e s the r e l a t i o n s h i p between c o n f l i c t and e x t e r n a l i t y . The f i n d i n g s of t h i s t h e s i s suggest that c o n f l i c t m o t i v a t i o n may be more i n t e r n a l l y o r i e n t e d i n terms of a t t e n t i o n a l focus being on f e e l i n g s of g u i l t and a n x i e t y . Competitive m o t i v a t i o n y i e l d s an a t t e n t i o n a l focus that i s narrowed on the opponent, which i n d i c a t e s that at l e a s t some environmental cues are being picked up. The o v e r a l l achievement a n a l y s i s supported the n o t i o n that cooperative and competence m o t i v a t i o n s are important to achievement i n a judgement context. Competitive, aggressive and 125 c o n f l i c t motivations d i d not d i s t i n g u i s h groups i n terms of achievement. The lack of d i s t i n c t i o n between groups on o v e r a l l achievement on the competition and aggression m o t i v a t i o n v a r i a b l e i s not unexpected. There may be a l i n k between the m o t i v a t i o n a l ' s t y l e of o f f i c i a l s and the type of a u t h o r i t y they h o l d over p l a y e r s . Raven (1974) d e s c r i b e d s i x types of leader power • i n c l u d i n g the f o l l o w i n g that are r e l e v a n t to o f f i c i a t i n g : 1) L e g i t i m a t e Power: by which r o l e r e l a t i o n s between a l e a d e r and a t a r g e t who are d e f i n e d as o b l i g a t i o n s on the p a r t of the t a r g e t to comply with the leader's r e q u e s t s . 2) Coercive Power: by which the leader has the a b i l i t y t o mediate t a r g e t punishment. Due to the f a c t t h a t o f f i c i a l s and p l a y e r s have a set of r u l e s by which to play and the o f f i c i a l ' s task i s to enforce those r u l e s , i t may be proposed t h a t o f f i c i a l s have l e g i t i m a t e and/or c o e r c i v e power over p l a y e r s . The e x i s t e n c e of t h i s type of power may a l l e v i a t e the n e c e s s i t y f o r the o f f i c i a l to be h i g h l y competitive or a g g r e s s i v e , as c o n f l i c t between p l a y e r and o f f i c i a l can u l t i m a t e l y be r e s o l v e d by r e f e r r i n g t o s t a n d a r d i s e d r u l e s . In f a c t , u n r u l y p l a y e r s may be e j e c t e d from the game at the d i s c r e t i o n of the o f f i c i a l . I t i s important to note t h a t the expected a s s o c i a t i o n s between PTP and the f i v e m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s were supported i n c o r r e l a t i o n a l analyses, but three of the f i v e s t y l e s f a i l e d t o d i s t i n g u i s h i n d i v i d u a l s i n terms of o v e r a l l achievement. I t i s a l s o i n t e r e s t i n g to observe that the m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s t h a t were most s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d with PTP, the c o m p e t i t i v e , a g g r e s s i v e and c o n f l i c t m o t i v a t i o n s , were l e s s e f f e c t i v e i n d i s t i n g u i s h i n g high a c h i e v e r s than the cooperative and competence m o t i v a t i o n s - which were l e s s s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h PTP. T h i s phenomenon can p o s s i b l y be e x p l a i n e d by noting t h a t PTP does not d i s t i n g u i s h groups i n terms of achievement as profoundly as GIOA, t h e r e f o r e i n f l u e n c e s oh PTP may be more weakly or i n d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to o v e r a l l achievement than PTP. Another p o s s i b i l i t y f o r the l a c k of f i n d i n g s on the c o m p e t i t i v e , aggressive and c o n f l i c t e d m o t i v a t i o n s may be the f a c t t h a t i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n i s o n l y one component of the o v e r a l l achievement c r i t e r i o n . PTP i s a part of i n t u i t i v e p r e d i c t i o n and m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e s are p o s i t e d to i n f l u e n c e PTP, not d i r e c t l y to i n f l u e n c e o v e r a l l achievement. Since the c o r r e l a t i o n a l analyses demonstrated the p o s i t e d a s s o c i a t i o n s between m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e and PTP, * i t may be suggested t h a t the i n d i r e c t nature of the m o t i v a t i o n a l i n f l u e n c e on o v e r a l l achievement i s not s u f f i c i e n t enough to be evidenced i n an i n v e s t i g a t i o n where o v e r a l l achievement i s a c r i t e r i o n . The examination of the TPM p r o p o s i t i o n and subsequent f i n d i n g s i n t h i s t h e s i s suggests t h a t i n order to p r e d i c t the behaviour of others i n s o c i a l s i t u a t i o n s , an i n d i v i d u a l must be possessed of: 1) a large r e p e r t o i r e of p o s s i b l e s i t u a t i o n a l outcomes based on the engagement of past and f u t u r e temporal p e r s p e c t i v e s ; 2) the a b i l i t y engage present temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i n the performance s i t u a t i o n . 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J o u r n a l of P e r s o n a l i t y  and S o c i a l Psychology 54(5), 748-757. 155 APPENDIX Table 1 D i s c r i m i n a n t V a l i d i t y of TPM Sca l e s COMPETEN COMPETIT COOPERAT AGGRESS GIOA PTP COMPETEN 1.0000 -.0322" 1.0000 -.0149 .3760** 3734** 0073 0199 3525** 1828 . 2101* .3195** COMPETIT 0322 0149 1.0000 1.0000 -.0997 -.0690 3617** 3170** 0191 1152 - . 3483** -.1509 COOPERAT .3760** .3734** 0997 0690 1.0000 1.0000 0332 0546 3160** 2919** -.0083 .2601* AGGRESS 0073 0199 .3617** 3170** , 0332 0546 1.0000 1.0000 .0537 . 0124 -.2000* -.0809 GIOA PTP 3525** 1828 2101* 3195** -.0191 . 1152 -.3483**--.1509 3160** 2919** 0083 2601* . 0537 ,0124 . 2000* 0809 1.0000 1.0000) . 1437 . 0303 . 1437 .0303 1.0000 1.0000 SELFEFFI 4282** 5586** -.1575 -.0437 .3144** .2259* -.0920 .0659 . 2469* . 1288 . 5329** ,4063** CONFLICT 3052** 3010** .2360* .2251* 1736 1626 1909 1624 -.1526 .0699 4544** 2657** CONFLICT SELFEFFI -.4586** -.4532** Note. Upper v a l u e = O f f i c i a l s : Based on N of cases: 118 Lower value=Students : Based on N of cases: 110 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p_ < .01 ** p_ < .001 156 Sca l e V a l i d a t i o n s : C r i t e r i o n V a l i d i t y : O f f i c i a l s 1) M o t i v a t i o n s c a l e s Sample Item: "When I am on the i c e I f e e l that I am performing my best y e t . " Table 2 C o r r e l a t i o n s Between M o t i v a t i o n s c a l e s and O b j e c t i v e C r i t e r i a SYMPTOMS FIGHTS PAYMENT ROLE NHL ROLE AGGRESSION .4822** -.1730 -.2143* -.3123** CONFLICT .2584* -.1716 . -.2543* -.1595 COMPETITION .1571 -.2281* COOPERATION .1975 COMPETENCE .3187** 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p_ < .01 ** p_ < .001 Items U t i l i s e d i n C r i t e r i o n V a l i d a t i o n of m o t i v a t i o n a l s c a l e s (with r a t i o n a l e s i n b r a c k e t s ) : > 1) SYMPTOMS: "Check of the number of symptoms you experience i n or around game time: f e e l s i c k , f e e l weak, f e e l d i z z y , headache, muscle aches." (somatic c o r r e l a t e s of ne g a t i v e a f f e c t ) . 2) FIGHTS: "How many f i g h t s d i d you have l a s t year p l a y i n g hockey?" ( c o r r e l a t e of a g g r e s s i v e impulse c o n t r o l ) 3) PAYMENT: "Would you o f f i c i a t e f o r no payment?" ( i n t r i n s i c m o t i v a t i o n a l s t y l e ) 4) ROLE: "Do you p r e f e r to Referee r a t h e r than to be a . Linesman?" (preference f o r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y and c o n t r o l a s s o c i a t e d w i t h Referee task) 5) NHL ROLE: "Would you p r e f e r to be a p l a y e r or and o f f i c i a l i n the NHL?" (preference f o r e x t r i n s i c a l l y rewarded r o l e ) . 157 2) GIOA S c a l e Alpha R e l i a b i 1 i t y = . 5 1 4 3 S c a l e Items: 1. I l i k e t o t h i n k about unusual i n c i d e n t s that c o u l d happen i n games and how I might handle them. 2. I l i k e t o c o n s u l t other o f f i c i a l s f o r ways to handle new s i t u a t i o n s t h a t come up i n games. 3. On the way to games I t h i n k of unusual s i t u a t i o n s t h a t might come up and how I might handle them. 4. My thoughts a f t e r the game are concerned with f i n d i n g d i f f e r e n t s o l u t i o n s to new game problems. 5. I l i k e t o p l a n how I wi11 deal w i t h odd s i t u a t i o n s on the i c e . 6. I p r e f e r t o t h i n k about p o s s i b l e i n c i d e n t s that might come up i n games r a t h e r than those t h a t d i d happen. 7. I do not t h i n k you l e a r n much except from a c t u a l experience. 8. My thoughts about my games o f f the i c e are best d e s c r i b e d as emotional. 9. I d i r e c t a l o t of thought t o a c t u a l experiences i n games I have been i n . 10. I do not l i k e to t h i n k about how games might have turned out i f people had acted d i f f e r e n t l y . 11. I do not t h i n k about unusual game problems that might come up. Table 3 V a l i d a t i o n s of GIOA Scale GIOA « PTP F a c t o r M S c a l e P r i n c i p l e Component 1 . 1437 -.0250 .3130** 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p_ < .01 ** p_ < .001 158 P r i n c i p l e Component 1: was d e r i v e d from a P r i n c i p l e Component A n a l y s i s of the f o l l o w i n g c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s proposed t o be r e l a t e d to tendencies and a b i l i t i e s corresponding to GIOA ( r a t i o n a l e i n b r a c k e t s ) : 1. "Do you u s u a l l y win at chess ( s t r a t e g i c s u c c e s s ) ? " 2. "Have you been t r a i n e d i n the use of mental imagery ( v i s u a l i z a t i o n s k i l l s ) ? " 3. "What were/are your pre f e r e n c e s i n school s u b j e c t s (subject preference was or g a n i z e d on a continuum of i n c r e a s i n g requirement f o r novel a b s t r a c t i o n ) ? " 4. "What type of a r t i c l e s have you. i f ever, w r i t t e n (same o r g a n i z a t i o n ; as i n c) " 5. "What types of books/movies do you p r e f e r (organized on continuum of preference f o r r e a l i s t i c t o f a n t a s t i c a l ) ? " 6. "How many times per month do you buy l o t t e r y t i c k e t s (low p r o b a b i l i t y p r o j e c t i v e t h i n k i n g ) ? " 7. "When you go to games, what percentage of your a t t e n t i o n i s focussed on the o f f i c i a l ( s e a r c h f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s t r a t e g i e s ) " ? 8. "How many a r t i c l e s on O f f i c i a t i n g d i d you read l a s t year(same as i n g)?" 9. "How many times per month do you go to watch peers O f f i c i a t e (same as i n g)?" 3) PTP Scale Alpha Re 1 i a b i l i t y = . 7 4 3 5 S c a l e items: 1. I r a r e l y miss what i s going on around me i n a game. 2. I re a c t b l i n d l y i n games. 3. I am able to p i c k up d e t a i l s of game s i t u a t i o n s . 4. I f i n d i t d i f f i c u l t to f o r g e t mistakes and go on. 5. I f i n d myself t h i n k i n g of past mistakes d u r i n g games. 6. I f i n d myself t h i n k i n g of past successes d u r i n g games. 7. I tend to jump the gun i n s t e a d of watching the s i t u a t i o n develop. 8. I daydream on the i c e when I should be watching the a c t i o n , 9. I/worry ahead d u r i n g games. 10. I f i n d i t d i f f i c u l t to keep t r a c k of the a c t i o n . 11. I know what a l l the p l a y e r s are doing at any time. 12. I n o t i c e when i t i s time f o r a p l a y e r to come out of the penalty box. 159 13. I o f t e n have to c o n s u l t linesmen about p e n a l t i e s I d i d n ' t see. 14. I f i n d that coaches comments durin g the game can d i s t r a c t me from the a c t i o n . 15. I am good at p i c k i n g up on a l l the game a c t i o n . 16. Most of my a t t e n t i o n i s focussed on the present s i t u a t i o n . 17. I t i s easy f o r me to s t a y m entally i n t o the game. 18. I can keep t r a c k of a c t i o n behind the p l a y . 19. I tend to dwell on my f e e l i n g s and miss game a c t i o n . 20. My thoughts do not get i n the way of p i c k i n g up game a c t i o n . T able 4 V a l i d a t i o n s of PTP S c a l e 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p_ < .01 ** p_ < .001 P r i n c i p l e Component 2: was d e r i v e d from a P r i n c i p l e Component A n a l y s i s of the f o l l o w i n g c r i t e r i o n v a r i a b l e s proposed to be r e l a t e d to t e ndencies and a b i l i t i e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o PTP ( r a t i o n a l e i n b r a c k e t s ) : a) "Check of the number of symptoms you experience i n o r around game time: f e e l s i c k , f e e l weak, f e e l d i z z y , headache, muscle aches (somatic a n x i e t y c o r r e l a t e s ) . " b) "How many auto a c c i d e n t s were you i n which you were the d r i v e r ( d i v i d e d by age i n years; a t t e n t i o n a l measure)?" c) "HOw.many speeding t i c k e t s have you had l a s t y e a r ( a t t e n t i o n a l measure)?" d) "I o f t e n have to c o n s u l t linesmen f o r i n f o r m a t i o n on p l a y s I d i d not see ( a t t e n t i o n a l c o n t r o l ) . " PTP P r i n c i p l e Component 2 F a c t o r C (Egostrength) F a c t o r M (Realism) .2068** .4147** -.1243 160 "I f i n d i t d i f f i c u l t to catch a l l the i n f r a c t i o n s when a p l a y e r f i g h t breaks out ( a t t e n t i o n a l c o n t r o l ) . " 4) S e l f - e f f i c a c y s c a l e Sample item: "When I t h i n k of what I have accomplished as an o f f i c i a l I f e e l very s a t i s f i e d with myself." Table 5 V a l i d a t i o n s of S e l f - e f f i c a c y S.cale S e l f - e f f i c a c y P reference f o r Referee Role over Subordinate Linesman Role .3556** F a c t o r C (Egostrength) .3401** 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p. < .01 ** p < .001 T h i s s c a l e has a l s o been v a l i d a t e d i n p r i o r s t u d i e s (see instruments s e c t i o n ) . Table 6 C o r r e l a t i o n s between O v e r a l l Achievement. I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n and Years of Experience O v e r a l l I n t u i t i v e Years of Achievement P r e d i c t i o n Experience O v e r a l l Achievement I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n .4860** Years of Experience .1300 .2370' 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p_ < .01 ** p_ < .001 Table 7 T o t a l Sample Means on TPM V a r i a b l e s V a r i a b l e Mean SD Range Median GIOA 36. 62 4, .32 23 to 43 35. 00 34. 60 5. . 25 — — SELFEFFI 37. 05 4. .89 24 t o 30 38. 00 32. 56 6 . 63 — — PTP 67. 04 7, .59 41 to 72 54. 00 64. 04 5. .34 — — AGGRESSION 13. 64 2. .99 7 to 22 14. 00 12. 36 2. ,85 — — CONFLICT 11 . 14 3. .01 5 to 18 11 . 00 14. 72 3. ,64 — •— COMPETITION 14. 75 3. .02 7 to 23 15. 00 13. 01 3. ,80 — — COOPERATION 19 . 34 3, .08 13 to 25 19. 00 17. 46 3. .07 — — COMPETENCE 16. 92 2, .89 9 to 25 16. 00 14. 05 3. .42 — — INTUITIVE PRE 0. 00 1 . 00 -4.2 to 3. 1 -. 02 OVERALL ACH 0. 00 1 , .00 -1.6 to 1. 8 • 03 YEARS EXPER 7. 87 5. .63 0 to 30 6 1.01 Note. O f f i c i a l s : Upper Value based on N=118. Students : Lower Value based on N=110. Table 8 C o r r e l a t i o n s between O v e r a l l Achievement, I n t u i t i v e P r e d i c t i o n , Years of Experience and TPM V a r i a b l e s O v e r a l l I n t u i t i v e Years of Achievement P r e d i c t i o n Experience GIOA .4023** .4311** .0703 PTP .2246* .2891* .0338 S e l f - e f f i c a c y .4756** .4188** . 1420 Competence .2672* .2947* -.0370 Competition -.0033 .0442 .0315 Cooperation .1992* .1620 -.0323 Aggression .0216 .0859 .0192 C o n f 1 i c t -.0100 -.1481 -.0188 1 - t a i l e d S i g n i f : * p_ < .01 ** p < .001 163 H i s t o r i c a l Research on Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e The n o t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e has been apparent i n the p s y c h o l o g i c a l l i t e r a t u r e from as e a r l y as 1939 when Frank (1939) presented an e l a b o r a t i o n of the concept i n terms of the e f f e c t s of an i n d i v i d u a l ' s conceptions of the past and the f u t u r e on the pe r c e p t i o n s of the present. The idea that maladaptive temporal p e r s p e c t i v e i s a s i g n i f i c a n t component of psychopathology has been a c e n t r a l concept i n p s y c h i a t r i c theory (Huibert & Lens, 1988). In the years f o l l o w i n g Frank's work, the concept of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e has EGFHundergone many m o d i f i c a t i o n s and progress i n r e s e a r c h of the c o n s t r u c t has s u f f e r e d from disagreements i n d e f i n i t i o n and ap p r o p r i a t e n e s s of measurement. The few c o n s i s t e n c i e s i n the for m u l a t i o n s to present are that temporal o r i e n t a t i o n i s a product of the s o c i a l environment, i s a r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e i n f l u e n c e on behaviour and i s e n d u r i n g l y m o d i f i e d by extreme s o c i a l f o r c e s (Lomranz, 1985). S t e r n (1924) i n d i c a t e d that the f u t u r e i s near to the person o n l y when i t i s experienced i n i t s p e r s o n a l s i g n i f i c a n c e f o r the p r e s e n t . S t r e s s and Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e In the d i s c u s s i o n of Lewin's f i e l d theory i t was suggested t h a t the Second World War was the i n s p i r a t i o n f o r the n o t i o n of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . The e f f e c t s of the war was to become a r e p e a t i n g theme i n the decades to come i n the development of theory/and r e s e a r c h on temporal p e r s p e c t i v e . 164 B e t t l e h e i m (1958) used the f o l l o w i n g words to d e s c r i b e the temporal p e r s p e c t i v e of c o n c e n t r a t i o n camp inmates i n Nazi Germany: The p r i s o n e r s l i v e d , l i k e c h i l d r e n , only i n the immediate present; they l o s t the f e e l i n g f o r the sequence of time;they became unable to plan f o r the f u t u r e or to give up immediate pl e a s u r e s a t i s f a c t i o n s to g a i n g r e a t e r ones i n the near f u t u r e , (pp.201) S t o u f f e r (1959), observed a s i m i l a r phenomenon o c c u r r i n g w i t h American s o l d i e r s sent i n t o b a t t l e i n World War Two.Stouffer wrote t h a t : (the troops experienced)...a s h o r t e n i n g of time p e r s p e c t i v e , l i v i n g i n the s h o r t run and f o c u s s i n g a t t e n t i o n on means r a t h e r than ends. The hedonism of combat troops on leave i s t r a d i t i o n a l . By b a n i s h i n g the long run to a s t a t u s of l i m i t e d r e a l i t y , , the combat man c o u l d to some extent escape f a c i n g the unpleasant p r o b a b i l i t i e s and a v o i d a d i s o r g a n i z i n g l e v e l of a n x i e t y , (pp. 189-190) The term "ant e p r e s s i o n " was c o i n e d to d e s c r i b e t h i s phenomenon. Eson and G r e e n f i e l d (1962) concluded t h a t a n t e p r e s s i o n occurs f r e q u e n t l y i n nonneurotic i n d i v i d u a l s . I n t h e i r study i t was found that s u b j e c t s tended to r a t e thoughts about f u t u r e events as p l e a s a n t . In h i s 1948 chapter, Lewin d i s c u s s e d the e f f e c t s of unemployment on f u t u r e time p e r s p e c t i v e . E i s e n b e r g and L a z a r f i e l d (1938) found t h a t workers f a c i n g long p e r i o d s of unemployment tended to reduce the frequency of thoughts about the f u t u r e . Lipman and Havens (1965) found t h a t f a m i l i e s who had been v i c t i m s of v i o l e n c e i n Columbia showed a l e s s e r sense of optimism, s e c u r i t y and preference toward thoughts of t h e i r f u t u r e . Coser and Coser (1963) r e f e r r e d to a " m u t i l a t i o n or d e s t r u c t i o n of time p e r s p e c t i v e " that occurs i n p e r i o d s of s o c i a l i n s t a b i l i t y . T h i s was conceived of as the " s u b j e c t i v e counterpart of a s t a b l e s o c i a l order and of s t a b l e scrcial i n s t i t u t i o n s , which not only permit but s a n c t i o n an o r d e r l y p r o g r e s s i o n of e x p e c t a t i o n s w i t h r e f e r e n c e to others and o n e s e l f " (Finestone, 1957). There were a number of s t u d i e s on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and a v a r i e t y of person and s i t u a t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . Temporal p e r s p e c t i v e was s t u d i e d i n r e l a t i o n s h i p to socioeconomic s t a t u s , achievement, sex, e t h n i c group and psychopathology (Barndt & Johnson, 1955: C o t t l e , 1974; Davids, 1969; Farnham-Diggory, 1966; Khoury & Thurmond, 1978; LeShan, 1952; L e s s i n g . 1968; Mehta et a l . , 1972, Shannon, 1975). F i n d i n g s i n d i c a t e d a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between SES and f u t u r e o r i e n t a t i o n , achievement and f u t u r e o r i e n t a t i o n , d e p r e s s i o n and past o r i e n t a t i o n , and a negative r e l a t i o n s h i p between f u t u r e e x t e n s i o n and p a t h o l o g i e s such as s c h i z o p h r e n i a . Anxiety and Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e I n t e r e s t i n the r e l a t i o n s h i p between temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and a n x i e t y was vigorous and a v a r i e t y of s t u d i e s p r o v i d e d c o n f l i c t i n g r e s u l t s . Krauss and Reiz (1967) found a s i g n i f i c a n t negative c o r r e l a t i o n between a measure of manifest a n x i e t y and the use of present or f u t u r e verbs i n a t e s t of sentence completion. High l e v e l s of manifest a n x i e t y were p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of present and past verbs and a l e s s e r p r o p o r t i o n of f u t u r e tenses. Eply and Ricks (1963) found a s i g n i f i c a n t n e g ative c o r r e l a t i o n between a n x i e t y and the length of f u t u r e time spans i n TAT s t o r i e s . C o n t r a r y to these f i n d i n g s , Rokeach (1960) suggested that "attempts to cope with a n x i e t y should i n v o l v e a deemphasis on the present and a preoccupation with the f u t u r e . " Maslow (1962) s t a t e d that " . . . t h r e a t and a n x i e t y p o i n t to the f u t u r e (no future=no neurosis) Ruiz and Krauss (1968) continued t h e i r s t u d i e s w i t h a l a r g e r p o p u l a t i o n of s i x t y - f o u r s u b j e c t s and found that with a g r e a t e r range i n measured l e v e l s of a n x i e t y a s i g n i f i c a n t c u r v i l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p between a n x i e t y and f u t u r e o r i e n t a t i o n emerged. The f i n d i n g s demonstrated t h a t the p a t i e n t s lowest i n a n x i e t y completed s l i g h t l y l e s s f u t u r e tense sentence completions than d i d the p a t i e n t s high i n manifest a n x i e t y and both groups completed s i g n i f i c a n t l y l e s s f u t u r e tense items than d i d the group who were found to be moderately anxious. I t appears from t h i s study t h a t a n x i e t y may have i n i t i a l l y b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s on f u t u r e o r i e n t a t i o n that are d e t r i m e n t a l l y i n f l u e n c e d by h i g h l e v e l s of a n x i e t y . Developmental Aspects of Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e The developmental aspects of temporal p e r s p e c t i v e were a l s o s t u d i e d thoroughly. The work of Inhelder and P i a g e t (1958) demonstrated the s h i f t i n dependence upon concrete r e a l i t i e s to the manipulation of a b s t r a c t i o n s . In t h e i r c l a s s i c paper Inhelder and P i a g e t made the f o l l o w i n g o b s e r v a t i o n : 167 The connection i n d i c a t e d by the words ' i f . . . t h e n ' ( i n f e r e n t i a l i m p l i c a t i o n ) l i n k s a r e q u i r e d l o g i c a l consequence to as a s s e r t i o n whose t r u t h i s merely a . p o s s i b i 1 i t y . T h i s s y n t h e s i s of deductive n e c e s s i t y and p o s s i b i l i t y c h a r a c t e r i z e s the use of p o s s i b i l i t y i n formal thought, as opposed to p o s s i b i 1 i t y - a s - a n - e x t e n s i o n - o f - t h e -a c t u a l s i t u a t i o n i n concrete thought and to u n r e g u l a t e d p o s s i b i l i t i e s i n i m a g i n a t i v e f i c t i o n s , (pp.257-258) As p r e v i o u s l y mentioned, both Frank and Lewin had r e c o g n i z e d the developmental p r o g r e s s i o n of an i n d i v i d u a l ' s time p e r s p e c t i v e from a narrow p r e s e n t - o r i e n t e d p e r s p e c t i v e to a more mature present, past and f u t u r e based p e r s p e c t i v e . A g r e a t deal of change i n p e r s p e c t i v e was p o s i t e d to occur i n the adolescent years (Eson & G r e e n f i e l d , 1962; Neugarten. 1968; Wallace, 1956). S p e c i f i c a l l y , the f i n d i n g s i n d i c a t e d t h a t , i n comparison to younger c h i l d r e n , a d o l e s c e n t s d i s p l a y e d a deeper and more extended temporal p e r s p e c t i v e (Kastenbaum, 1961, 1966; V e r s t r a a t e n . 1980: Wallace. 1956), were able to p r o j e c t a more complex set of f u t u r e events (Bortner & H u l t s c h , 1972; Douvan & Adelson, 1966; Moerk & Backer, 1971) and were ab l e to p r o j e c t future events with g r e a t e r o r g a n i z a t i o n and r e a l i s m (Lens & G a i l y , 1980; Moerk, 1974; V e r s t r a a t e n , 1980). With regard to the end of the l i f e s p a n some r e s e a r c h e r s suggested t h a t f u t u r e o r i e n t a t i o n decreased i n the e l d e r l y as an a d a p t a t i o n to impending death (Cummings & Henry, 1961: Dooley, 1941). Other t h e o r i s t s p o s i t e d and demonstrated a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between fu t u r e o r i e n t a t i o n and l i f e s a t i s f a c t i o n (Fink, 1957; Spence. 1968). E r i k s o n (1964) has w r i t t e n t h a t "the young 168 person, i n order to experience wholeness, must f e e l a p r o g r e s s i v e c o n t i n u i t y between that which he has come to be du r i n g the long years of childhood and that which he promises to be i n the a n t i c i p a t e d f u t u r e . S e l f - c o n t i n u i t y i s promoted by s h i f t s i n temporal p e r s p e c t i v e and i s r e p r e s e n t e d i n p s y c h o a n a l y t i c theory as a means of preventing p a t h o l o g i c fragmentation of the p e r s o n a l i t y (Freud. 1953, 1958). M o t i v a t i o n and Temporal P e r s p e c t i v e Heckhausen (1967.1977) i n d i c a t e d that i n terms of achievement m o t i v a t i o n theory, the f u t u r e i s the primary " m o t i v a t i o n a l space" that s t i m u l a t e s and d i r e c t s p e r c e p t i o n and performance. S p e c i f i c a l l y , when a d i s c r e p a n c y e x i s t s between the present and a n t i c i p a t i o n s of f u t u r e s i t u a t i o n s the i n d i v i d u a l i s motivated to enact e i t h e r approach or avoidance behaviour on the b a s i s of those a n t i c i p a t e d s i t u a t i o n s . 

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