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A study in estuarine resource management : the Fraser training works proposal Hobson, Robert Douglas 1979

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A STUDY IN ESTUARINE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT THE FRASER TRAINING WORKS PROPOSAL by ROBERT DOUGLAS HOBSON A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES School o f Community and Reg iona l P l a n n i n g We accep t t h i s t h e s i s as c on fo rm ing to the r e q u i r e d s t anda rd THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1979 © R o b e r t Douglas Hobson, 1979 In presenting th i s thesis in par t i a l fu l f i lment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Univers ity of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library shal l make i t f ree ly avai lable for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of th i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It i s understood that copying or publ icat ion of th is thesis for f inanc ia l gain shal l not be allowed without my written permission. . _ Graduate S t u d i e s Department of The Univers ity of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T iW5 A p r i l 30, 1979 i i ABSTRACT The Fraser estuarine area i s characterized by an abundance of biophy-s i ca l resources interact ing with high levels of human demand for food, recreat ion, transportat ion, indust r ia l l oca t ion , and other uses. Our society frequently r e l i e s on the market to a l locate resources in a s o c i a l l y optimal fashion. But for estuarine resources th i s approach i s often inadequate because ex te rna l i t i e s from resource uses are not con-sidered, or because a competitive market is not operative. In such cases government intervention is considered necessary to a l locate re-sources in accordance with societal preferences. This thesis seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of government i n t e r -vention in a l l ocat ing estuarine resources in the Fraser estuarine area for navigation and port development in a s o c i a l l y optimal fashion, through an examination of the planning process leading to the genera-t ion of a proposal to t ra in the lower reaches of the main are of the Fraser River. The purpose of the proposal i s to create, through a s e l f -scouring channel, an improved draft for deep sea shipping. This pro-posal has been chosen for analysis because i t represents a major demand on the resources of the estuary, and has considerable potential for a f fect ing a wide range of in terest s . As such i t should prove a good test of the effectiveness of government intervention in a l locat ing es-tuarine resources in a s o c i a l l y optimal manner. This thesis thus has the fol lowing object ives: i i i 1. To evaluate the effectiveness of the "ports provision system" in a r r i v i ng at a s o c i a l l y optimal a l locat ion of estuarine resources for navigation and port development. To achieve th i s objective i t i s necessary to achieve the fol lowing sub-object ives: 2. To ident i f y those interests who w i l l benefit and those who w i l l bear a s i gn i f i can t share of the costs that w i l l re su l t i f the t ra in ing works proposal i s implemented. 3. To describe the a c t i v i t i e s and interact ions among affected i n t e r -ests in the process of deriving the t ra in ing works proposal. 4. To determine whether adequate information for the evaluation of a l ternat ives has been generated. These objectives were pursued as fol lows. Normative c r i t e r i a were de-rived for evaluating the effectiveness of an ideal process for a l l o c a t -ing estuarine resources for navigation and port development. A basic assumption behind these c r i t e r i a was that societal preferences can be e l i c i t e d through a process of bargaining amongst legit imate interests . The interests affected by the t ra in ing works proposal were i den t i f i ed by reviewing the potential ef fects on biophysical processes, by i d e n t i -fying other uses displaced by the project, and by a descr ipt ion of an-t i c ipated economic e f fec t s . The avai lable l i t e r a tu re on these factors was reviewed, and interviews were held with representatives of l i k e l y affected interests . i v Next, the involvement of interests in the planning process was deter-mined. This h i s t o r i ca l antecedents to the t ra in ing works proposal were outl ined to place the project in context and to define the extent of past involvement by interest in port development. Those interests with a formal l e g i s l a t i v e basis for involvement in the process were then i den t i f i ed . The involvement of other interests was determined by reviewing written material and by informal discussions with as many affected interests as could be contacted within time constraints. For convenience, the planning process was considered in three stages: conceptualization of the problem, derivation of a l te rnat i ves , and eva l -uation of a l ternat ives . The decision stage, yet to come, was not con-sidered. The effectiveness of the process in a r r i v ing at a s o c i a l l y optimal proposal was analyzed in terms of the extent to which affected interests were able to bargain "for the consideration of a l ternat ives which they favoured, and the extent to which evaluative information generated on alternat ives i den t i f i ed the effects on the various l e g i -timate interests . Six general categories of information were evaluated. F i na l l y , a number of behavioural factors which appear to have inh ib i ted the generation of a l ternat ives and of evaluative information were noted, based on a review of the l i t e r a tu re on l im i t s to r a t i o n a l i t y , and on interviews with actors involved in the planning process. The analysis showed that the planning process f a i l ed to meet the norma-t i ve c r i t e r i a and that the problem was of s u f f i c i en t magnitude to ser-V iously a f fect the optimal a l locat ion of estuarine resources for navigation and port development. The ports problem was conceptualized in a manner that precluded the consideration of a wide range of a l ternat ive so lut ions, because only the values of those interests who would benefit from the proposal were brought to bear on the problem. S im i l a r l y , the a l terna-t i ve generated, and the evaluative information did not meet the concerns of many affected interests because they were excluded from the bargain-ing process. The att itudes of those interests involved were thus permitted to guide the process. There was l i t t l e bargaining amongst interests to determine social preferences because many interests were excluded from the process or lacked the necessary evaluative information to be-come involved. F i na l l y , elected representatives played a l im i ted role in the process, permitting c i v i l servants in powerful agencies to i n t e r -pret societal preferences. vi Table of Contents Page Chapter I Introduction 1 1. The Fraser estuarine area 1 2. Estuarine resource management 2 3. Scope of the study 3 4. Organization of the study 4 Chapter II A Theoretical Overview 6 1. Why the market f a i l s to a l locate estuarine resources for port purposes in a s o c i a l l y optimal manner 6 a. The problem of ex te rna l i t i e s 7 b. Opportunity costs not taken into account 9 c. Imperfect competition in port supply 10 2. Some relevant publ ic decision-making theory 12 a. The rat ionale for government intervention 12 b. A de f i n i t i on of the "publ ic i n te re s t " 13 c. A l locat ion of estuarine resources for navigation and port development in the public interest 14 3. C r i t e r i a of a ports provision system which can be expected to a l locate resources for navigation and port development in a s o c i a l l y optimal fashion 15 - conceptualization of problems at a strategic level 15 - generation of good evaluative information on a lternat ives and communication of i t amongst interests 17 - bargaining amongst legit imate interests 18 - accountabi l i ty to elected representatives 19 v i i Page 4. Behavioural factors a f fect ing i n s t i t u t i ona l performance 19 a. The rat ional model of decision-making 20 b. Limitations of the rat ional model 20 i . bounded r a t i ona l i t y 20 i i . the role of perceptions and att i tudes 23 i i i . the role of uncertainty 25 c. Inter-organizational factors 25 5. Summary of the theory 27 Chapter III I dent i f i ca t ion of Affected Interests 29 1. Introduction 29 2. Environmental concerns 29 a. Effects on estuarine processes 30 b. Effects on b io log ica l product iv i ty 32 3. Opportunity costs 35 a. Commercial f i shery 36 b. Recreational f i shery 37 c. Wildfowl u t i l i z a t i o n 38 d. Recreation and conservation 39 e. Other opportunity costs 40 4. Economic effects 41 a. National benefits and costs 41 i . benefits 41 i i . costs 42 b. Regional benefits and costs 44 i . benefits 44 i i . costs 47 vi i i Page c. Local benefits and costs 48 d. The effects of alternate port development scenarios on the incidences of benefits and costs 49 5. Summary of affected interests 50 Chapter IV H i s to r i ca l Antecedents to the Training Works Proposal 54 1. Early development of the Fraser port 54 2. The ro le of the Fraser River Harbour Commission 59 3. Improvements to the navigable channel 68 4. Fisheries management and port development ^ / ^ 75 5. Summary of key h i s to r i ca l factors 80 Chapter V The Training Works Decision Process 82 Introduction 82 The Formal Ports Provision System 82 Stages in the Planning Process 85 conceptualization of the problem (to 1974) 86 derivation of a l ternat ives (1974-July 1975) 86 evaluation of a lternat ives (July 1975-1979) 86 the decision stage (to come) 87 Considerations Which Enter Into the Decision 87 technical factors 87 environmental factors 88 opportunity costs 88 d i rec t costs and benefits 88 regional considerations 89 national considerations 89 i x Page A c t i v i t i e s and Processes 90 Conceptualization of the Problem (to 1974) 90 1. Nature of involvement 90 2. Concern for decision factors 92 a. Technical factors 92 b. Environmental factors 93 c. Opportunity costs 98 d. Direct costs and benefits 99 e. Regional considerations 99 f. National considerations 103 Derivation, of Alternat ives (1974-July 1975) 104 1. Nature of involvement 104 2. Concern for decision factors 105 a. Technical factors 105 b. Environmental factors 105 c. Opportunity costs 106 d. Direct costs and benefits 106 e. Regional considerations 106 f. National considerations 107 Evaluation of Alternat ives (July 1975-1979) 107 1. Nature of involvement 107 2. Concern for decision factors 113 a. Technical factors 113 b. Environmental factors 113 c. Opportunity costs 116 d. Direct costs and benefits 116 X Page e. Regional considerations 117 f. National considerations 118 Chapter VI Appl ication of the Theory to the Decision Process 120 1. Limitations to the consideration of a l ternat ives 120 a. Lack of economic incentives on the part of the proponents 121 b. Limited involvement of affected interests in the process 126 c. Behavioural influences on those involved 132 2. Limitations to the generation of evaluative information 139 3. Limitations to the involvement of elected represen-tat ives 151 4. Conclusions 154 Bibliography Appendix I 157 164 xi L i s t of Tables A. In the Text Page I. Fraser River Shipping Channel Expenditures 43 II. Increased Shipping Draft Resulting from the Proposed Scheme 46 I I I. Fraser River Harbour Development Scenarios 49 IV. The Training Works Proposal, some Incidences of Costs and Benefits 51 V. Antecedents to the Training Works Proposal 80 VI. The Training Works Proposal, Summary of Affected Interests 123 VII. The Training Works Proposal, Involvement of Interests in the Process of Deriving Alternat ives 129 VIII. The Training Works Proposal, Involvement of Interests in the Generation of Evaluative Information IX. Attitudes Favouring Fraser Draft Improvements 135 X. Federal Support for the Aquatic Sciences in the Vancouver Region. 142 B. In Appendix I I. Extent of Wetland Communities in the Fraser Estuary 168 II. Fraser River Shipping Channel Project 169 X I 1 L i s t of Figures A. In the Text Page 1. I l l u s t ra ted diagram of the detr i tus food web typ ica l of a slough/channel t i da l marsh habitat in the Fraser Estuary 33 2. Dredging, Control Works, and Channel Depth 65 3. Structures in the Lower Fraser River ^ ^ov^ 4. The Fraser Ports Provision System 84 5. The Planning Process for the Training Works Proposal (as envisaged by PWC in May, 1976) 108 B. In Appendix I 1. I l l u s t ra ted diagram of the detr i tus food web typical of a slough/channel t i da l marsh habitat in the Fraser Estuary 166 2. Seasonal usage of the lower mainstem Fraser River by the major species of migratory fishes 175 xi i i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The au tho r would l i k e to exp re s s h i s s i n c e r e a p p r e c i a t i o n to I r v i n g Fox, Tony Dorcey , and to o t h e r a d v i s o r s who a s s i s t e d i n the c o m p l e t i o n o f t h i s s t u d y . Thanks i s a l s o due to a number o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n government a genc i e s who r ev i ewed d r a f t m a t e r i a l . Any e r r o r s or o m i s s i o n s a r e , o f c o u r s e , the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f the a u t h o r . 1 Introduction 1. The Fraser Estuarine Area. The Fraser River estuarine area is characterized by an abundance of b io-log ica l and physical resources. The Fraser River drains a watershed 2 of 233,000 k , or most of south-central B r i t i s h Columbia. The lower reaches carry a sediment load of 20 m i l l i on tonnes, enriching the ex-tensive t i da l f l a t s on Sturgeon and Roberts Bank, and marshes in the mainstem of the r i ve r . The Fraser supports one of the world 's largest salmon runs. Salmon migrate to upstream spawning beds and juveni les move downstream through the estuary on the i r way to sea. The detritus-based food web of the estuary provides support to these migrating salmon. Sloughs and s ide-channels provide feeding and rearing areas for several species. In ad-d i t ion to salmon, 38 other species of f i sh use the estuary. The Fraser estuary is also important habitat for many species of birds and mammals. M i l l i ons of ducks, shorebirds, and other species use the Fraser wetlands en route to destinations in the Soviet Union, North America, and South America. In addit ion, thousands of birds overwinter in the estuary. The r i ch sediment load of the Fraser has created thousands of acres of highly arable f loodplain in the lower Fraser Val ley. Much of the land adjacent to the r i ve r and delta has been developed for agr icu l ture. 2 In addit ion to these natural resources, the Fraser estuarine area i s home to over a m i l l i o n people. Much of the population makes use of the area's natural resources for jobs, homesites, and recreation. The increasing intens i ty of such uses places many demands on the estuary. Over two thirds of the de l ta ' s wetlands have been f i l l e d and developed for other purposes. Much of the foreshore has been dyked and extensive areas of r ipar ian habitat have been l o s t . There i s an extensive commercial and recreational f i shery , and most of the foreshore i s used for wildfowl hunting. The navigable channels of the r i ve r are extensively used for shipping and log movement and storage, and industry i s spreading along much of the waterfront. F i n a l l y , the waters of the estuary are used for disposal of the region 's municipal and indust r ia l wastes. 2. Estuarine resource management. While in North America market forces are t yp i c a l l y used to a l locate resources, the market cannot be r e l i ed upon to a l locate estuarine re -sources in accord with soc ieta l preferences. This i s due both to fea-tures of the estuarine ecosystem and to fa i l u re s in the market i t s e l f . It i s for these reasons that government intervention is considered neces-sary to a l locate estuarine resource uses. It i s assumed that represen-tat i ve po l i t i c i an s w i l l make decisions which r e f l e c t socia l preferences. This implies that representatives are aware of social preferences and that they are well informed about the benefits and costs of a l ternat ive resource a l locat ions . 3 These conditions for successful estuarine resource management are d i f -f i c u l t to achieve where there are many resource uses, many potential users, numerous management agencies, several levels of government, and many uncertainties about the consequences of alternate resource a l l o ^ cations. The effectiveness of resource management must thus be measured in terms of the output of these complex interact ions , which can be ca l led "provis ion systems". 3. Scope of the study. This thesis explores the performance of the provision system for a l l o c a t -ing estuarine resources for navigation and deep sea port development in the Fraser estuarine area. For the purposes of th is thesis th i s area has been defined to include Howe Sound, Burrard In let , Sturgeon and Roberts Bank, the lower main arm of the Fraser, Boundary and Semiahmoo Bays. The planning process for a spec i f i c proposal to t ra in the flow of the lower reaches of the main arm of the Fraser River is examined. The t ra in ing works proposal i s intended to provide deeper and more re-l i a b l e draft to accommodate the needs of deep sea shipping. It i s a major project, comprising over 16,000 l inear metres of structures, with an estimated 1976 cost of $30 m i l l i o n . It represents a s i gn i f i can t demand on the estuary and has potential for major impacts on users of other estuarine resources. Thus i t i s a good candidate for a case study on the effectiveness of the ports provision system in a l locat ing estuarine resources for navigation and port development in a s oc i a l l y optimal fashion. 4 4. Organization of the study. The thesis has the fol lowing object ives: 1. To evaluate the effectiveness of the ports provision system in a r r i v ing at a s o c i a l l y optimal a l locat ion of estuarine resources for navigation and port development. To achieve this objective i t i s necessary to achieve the fol lowing sub-objectives : 2. To ident i f y those interests who w i l l benefit and those who w i l l bear a s i gn i f i cant share of the costs that w i l l resu l t i f the t ra in ing works proposal i s implemented. 3. To describe the a c t i v i t i e s and interact ions among affected i n -terests in the process of deriving the t ra in ing works proposal. 4. To determine whether adequate information for the evaluation of a lternat ives has been generated. The reasons for market f a i l u r e and the rat ionale for government i n t e r -vention in resource a l locat ion for navigation and port development are explored in Chapter II. Normative c r i t e r i a for an ideal port provision system are derived. F i na l l y , the l i t e r a tu re on behavioural l im i tat ions to the rat ional model of decision-making i s surveyed. Chapter III i den t i f i e s the interests l i k e l y to be affected by the pro-posal. These are derived from a discussion of environmental concerns, social opportunity costs, and economic e f fect s . The potential env i r -onmental effects are described in greater deta i l in Appendix I. 5 Chapter IV places the proposal in a h i s t o r i ca l context. The history of Fraser port development is sketched and major antecedents to the t ra in ing works proposal are l i s t e d . The key h i s to r i ca l actors are introduced and more recent interactions between deep sea shipping and other uses of the estuary are noted. In Chapter V the t ra in ing works decision process i s described. The fo r -mal ports provision system i s out l ined. Then the involvement of i n t e r -ests in the various stages of the planning process is described. The generation of evaluative information i s considered in terms of s i x major decision factors . The analysis in Chapter VI applies the theory in Chapter II to the de-c i s ion process described in Chapter V. Factors which l imi ted the con-s iderat ion of a lternat ives and the generation of evaluative information are i d e n t i f i e d . Limitations to the involvement of elected representa-t ives are noted. F i na l l y , a number of conclusions are drawn from the analys is. 6 Chapter II , Theory .. 1. Why the market f a i l s to a l locate estuarine resources for port devel-opment in a s o c i a l l y optimal manner. Under competitive markets, economists postulate that resources w i l l be al located according to tradeoffs amongst competing demands. The quanti -ty of each good supplied w i l l depend on i t s marginal rate of subst i tu -tion with other goods. Market a l locat ion w i l l maximize social welfare by ensuring that resources w i l l be d i s t r ibuted to that point where ad-d i t iona l benefits obtained from one use equal those benefits foregone from another use. This model i s based on a number of assumptions: that there are many buyers and s e l l e r s , that there is perfect i n f o r -mation, etc. For estuarine resources, market theory i s largely inappl icable in deter-mining social preferences because many of the assumptions of the approach do not hold. The most obvious l im i ta t i on is related to the common pro-perty aspects of estuarine resources. In a competitive market private costs are interna l i zed and thus converge with social costs. But for common property resources there is no incentive to in te rna l i ze costs, and therefore private and social costs diverge. The resu l t may be a s oc i a l l y suboptimal a l locat ion of resources because the socia l costs of some uses are not ref lected in the market pr ice. Two types of exter-nal costs are pa r t i cu l a r l y relevant to navigation and port development: ex te rna l i t i e s and opportunity costs. These are discussed in the next two sections. 7 A second factor which l im i t s competitive resource use a l locat ion is of par t i cu la r relevance to navigation and port a c t i v i t i e s . There may, for a var iety of reasons, be no competitive market for the provision of port f a c i l i t i e s in a region. Port development may be subsidized in a var iety of ways, suitable s i tes may be l im i ted , or port a l locat ion decisions may be based on other than competitive economic factors. These questions are discussed in the th i rd section below. a. The problem of ex te rna l i t i e s . In nature resources are a "seamless web" of in ter re lated biophysical charac te r i s t i c s . Man uses components of his environment, but his use is constrained by the nature of biophysical l inkages, by the manner in which he values attr ibutes of the environment, by technology ava i l ab le , by economic constraints, and by scarc i ty of various natural substances. Resources can thus be viewed as opportunities for man's use of the envi r -onment (Zimmermann, 1951), subject to certain natural and human con-s t ra i n t s . Furthermore, resources are not merely tangible objects but functional relat ionships between man's wants, his a b i l i t i e s , and his appraisal of his environment. (Hunker, 1964). For estuarine resources, the linkages amongst natural components are pa r t i cu l a r l y strong. Ketchum (1972) characterizes the estuary as that area where there are high levels of b io log ica l interact ion between land and water ecosystems. This description not only highl ights the 8 impacts one resource use can have on other resources, but also makes the essential point that an estuary i s not ju s t an aquatic ecosystem. Es-tuarine product iv i ty is based on interact ion between aquatic and ter res -t r i a l ecosystems. The market f a i l s to account for resource uses which af fect the produc-t i v i t y of the estuarine ecosystem and d i r e c t l y or i nd i r e c t l y a f fect other uses of estuarine resources. Economists c a l l these ef fects ex te rna l i t i e s : effects on parties standing outside a market transaction. (Ditton, et. a l . , 1977) When these ex te rna l i t i e s occur, there is a divergence between private and social costs, and a suboptimal a l l ocat ion of resources. Environmental ex te rna l i t i e s are pa r t i cu l a r l y d i f f i c u l t to detect and man-age for estuarine resources because of close biophysical l inkages. The environment's ass imi lat ive capacit ies make i den t i f i c a t i on of negative ex te rna l i t i e s d i f f i c u l t . The issue is further complicated by the ex i s -tence of many points of access to the estuarine ecosystem, and the fact that the consequences of an externa l i ty can appear far from the source of an intervent ion, and long a f te r i t has ceased. While po l lut ion is the most commonly i den t i f i ed externa l i ty a f fect ing the aquatic environment, navigation affects estuarine product iv i ty in several other ways. Dredging to maintain a navigable channel can k i l l f i s h , espec ia l ly migrating f ry. Dredge s p o i l , construction of t ra in ing works, and development of port f a c i l i t i e s can smother habitat and af-fect the estuarine food web. More i n d i r e c t l y , a l te rat ion in r i ve r 9 flow and sedimentation patterns can af fect f i sh movement, marsh develop-ment, delta formation, the sa l t wedge, and the freshwater plume. A l l of these factors are related to the b io log ica l product iv i ty of the estuary. The t ra in ing works proposal, discussed in Chapter I I I , i s current ly under invest igat ion to determine the extent of i t s potential e x te rna l i t i e s . The major potential ef fects are described in more deta i l in Appendix I. b. Opportunity costs not taken into account. Opportunity costs are simply other uses of the resource base which are foregone because of a par t i cu la r u t i l i z a t i o n of a resource use oppor-tunity. As such, they include the ex te rna l i t i e s introduced in the pre-vious section. They describe ex te rna l i t i e s in human terms. For navigation and port development there are two sets of opportunity costs borne by other users of an estuary. F i r s t , there are those which flow from the physical and b io log ica l a l terat ions to the estuary, and the resu l t ing effects on biophysical processes. Thus, for example, f i s h stocks may be reduced and f i sh ing opportunities be constrained. A second set of opportunity costs follows from uses which are displaced by navigation and port development. For example, addit ional waterfront development may reduce recreational access to the water, or addit ional deep sea t r a f f i c may imperil small c ra f t movement. These two sets of opportunity costs are, of course, re lated, for the a l terat ion to the mix 10 of uses in the estuary would l i k e l y a f fect biophysical processes. For example, indus t r ia l development on the waterfront could be expected to remove r ipar ian habitat. The major potential opportunity costs from the t ra in ing works proposal are summarized in Chapter III and described in greater deta i l in Appendix I. C lear ly , deep sea port development in an estuary has a potential for creating a wide array of ex te rna l i t i e s and opportunity costs. To the extent that these costs are not borne by those who benefit from th i s re -source use, the market w i l l f a i l to a l locate estuarine resources in a s o c i a l l y optimal manner. c. Imperfect competition in port supply. Under competitive market condit ions, navigation and port developments would be provided in response to demand, and use in turn would be affected by pr ice. However, i f there i s an i n su f f i c i en t number of "port suppl iers " to establ i sh a competitive p r i ce , the market w i l l function suboptimally. In the Fraser estuarine area, deep sea port supply i s regulated by two agencies: the National Harbours Board, which controls Vancouver Harbour, Roberts Bank, Sturgeon Bank, Boundary Bay, and Semiahmoo Bay, Fraser River Harbour Commission, which controls the main arm of the lower Fraser River. In addition to regulating port development, both agencies own prime s i tes and have developed deep sea port f a c i l i t i e s . One of the reasons for the tendency toward market f a i l u r e then, is that deep sea 11 f a c i l i t i e s are in the hands of two major suppl iers. Another factor i n -h ib i t i ng the development of a competitive market is the r e l a t i v e l y l imi ted number of regional s i tes which can economically be developed for deep sea port f a c i l i t i e s . Apart from the l im i ta t ions of supply imposed by ownership and economic s u i t a b i l i t y , the development of a competitive supply market i s inh ib i ted by a var iety of d i rect and ind i rect subsidies provided to deep sea ship-pers. A major form of subsidy i s provided by the absorption of naviga-tion maintenance costs by the federal government. In the Fraser, ship-pers do not pay the costs of channel maintenance through dredging, or through the construction of r i ve r t ra in ing works. Other subsidies are provided by government ownership of port f a c i l i t i e s , as in the case of FRHC docks, which do not pay municipal taxes. These subsidies prevent the establishment of a competitive price r e f l e c t i ng the cost of providing port f a c i l i t i e s . The natural monopoly character i s t i c s of ports provide further d i s incen-t ive for the creation of a.competitive market. The costs of development, and the s ize of the market do not j u s t i f y addit ional investment in com-pet i t i ve f a c i l i t i e s . There are therefore economies of scale which favour monopoly rather than market contro l . F i na l l y , there may be cases where port owners and operators choose not to operate in a competitive manner. Waters ( in Ruppenthal and Stanbury, 1976) points out that in an ol igopoly rates may be set at an uneconomic 12 level as a resu l t of excessive competition. S im i l a r l y , port f a c i l i t i e s may be oversupplied during temporary boom periods, resu l t ing in long-term excess capacity. 2. Some relevant public decision-making theory, a. The rat ionale for government intervention. Because the market f a i l s to a l locate navigation and port f a c i l i t i e s in an optimal manner, government intervention i s considered necessary to ensure the implementation of public preferences. One of the purposes of government action is to ensure that ex te rna l i t i e s and opportunity costs are accounted for in resource use. In the case of the t ra in ing works proposal, government intervention would thus ensure that environmental e f fect s , other estuarine uses foregone, and the d i s t r i bu t i on of economic benefits and costs were weighed in the decision process. Government intervention is not, however, simply a matter of shoring up the market. Instead, the market process i s replaced by the p o l i t i c a l process. The d i s t i nc t i on i s important, because societal preferences may d i f f e r from market preferences, even under competitive market condi-t ions. In a democracy, publ ic decisions are ult imately made, or should be made, by elected representatives. Only in th is manner can soc ieta l preferences c l ea r l y determine the course of government intervent ion, and decisions be made in the "publ ic i n te res t " . A second, and equally important premise of the democratic system i s that elected representatives make decisions on the basis of good i n -13 formation, f i r s t , about the courses of action ava i lable to them, second, about the consequences of those courses of action for society, and t h i r d , about the nature of publ ic preferences. Unless elected represen-tat ives have th i s information, they cannot be expected to sa t i s f y the rat ionale for government intervent ion, namely that the p o l i t i c a l process w i l l a l locate estuarine resources in a s o c i a l l y optimal fashion when the market f a i l s to do so. They w i l l , in f a c t , not be able to ident i f y the "publ ic i n te res t " in any resource a l locat ion decis ion. b. A de f i n i t i on of the "publ ic i n te re s t " . What then is the "publ ic in teres t " in estuarine resource a l locat ion? In r e a l i t y , there is no s ingle uni f ied set of public values. Instead, the concept of publ ic interest used in th is thesis w i l l be what Banfield (1955) has ca l led an i nd i v i dua l i s t conception. That i s , the ends of the p l u r a l i t y "as a whole" are simply the aggregate of ends entertained by ind iv idua l s . These ends are generally shared by groups of ind iv idua l s , which can be ca l led interests . There is thus not one but many "publ ic i n te res t s " . Another feature of the i nd i v i dua l i s t conception of the publ ic interest is that i t i s dynamic. Because i t i s based on values, and because values change, the public interest w i l l be served by d i f fe rent resource a l l o -cations at d i f fe rent times. It i s for th is reason that elected repre-sentatives must be able to determine the range of public preferences with respect to resource decisions in some manner that supplements pub-14 l i e choices made at e lect ions. Furthermore, i t should be noted that the ends of indiv iduals and interest groups may c o n f l i c t , over a range of issues. c. A l locat ion of estuarine resources for navigation and port develop-ment in the public interest . How then should man's use of estuarine resources for navigation and port development be planned and managed? Bross (1953) defines planning as the process of generating and evaluating alternate courses of act ion. O'Riordan (1971) defines resource management as a process of decision making whereby resources are a l located over space and time according to the needs, asp i rat ions, and desires of man within the framework of his technological inventiveness, his p o l i t i c a l and socia l i n s t i t u t i on s , and his legal and administrative arrangements. I f the market w i l l not adequately a l locate estuarine resources for nav i -gation arid port development, and i f optimal a l locat ion is based on values, government intervention is necessary to ensure appl icat ion of soc ieta l preferences. As previously indicated, there i s no uni f ied set of values held by a l l members of society. Instead, there are many groups repre-senting various sets of commonly shared values or in terest s . These i n -terest groups w i l l value certain a l locat ions of resources highly, others less highly, and w i l l oppose or be ind i f fe rent to others. Haefele (1972) postulates that a process of "vote trading" amongst repre-sentatives of interests w i l l reveal societal preferences over a range 15 of issues. This approach i s supported by other converts of the public choice school. Sproule-Jones (1976) supports a f ede ra l i s t approach as a means of s i gna l l i ng consumer preferences, d i s t r i bu t i ng the costs of co l l ec t i ve provision and consumption of goods, i n te rna l i z i ng e x te rna l i -t i e s , and responding to changing soc ieta l values. Ostrom (1971, b) ar-gues for overlapping j u r i sd i c t i on s to overcome some of the public goods aspects of estuarine resources which are suboptimally a l located by the market. This thesis accepts the notion that a process of bargaining amongst i n t e r -ests affected by navigation and port development proposals i s a c r i t i c a l component of any scheme for a l l oca t ing estuarine resources for such pur-poses in the public interest . The next section of th is chapter l i s t s c r i -t e r i a of an idea l ized approach to estuarine resource a l locat ion for port development which can be expected to a l locate resources in a s o c i a l l y op-timal manner. 3. C r i t e r i a of a ports provision system which can be expected to a l locate resources for navigation and port development in a s o c i a l l y optimal fashion. a. Conceptualization of problems at a s t rateg ic l e v e l . A strategy can be defined as a process of analysis and action leading to the determination of interventions. (Cartwright, 1973) Strategies deal with general concerns at a systems l e v e l . Strategies, which deal with what can be done within a system, may be distinguished from t a c t i c s , which deal with how things w i l l be done. A st rateg ic approach to port a l l o -cation w i l l thus involve defining the potential of the estuarine area for port use before spec i f i c a l locat ions are envisaged. 16 Jantsch (1970) points out that i t is not possible to move from the t a c t i c a l to the st rateg ic l e v e l . I t i s only possible to move downward from the pol icy or normative level to the s t rateg ic , and then to the t a c t i c a l . This is the case because addit ional values must be brought to bear on a problem before new strategies are i d e n t i f i e d , and ult imately new tac t i c s are considered. Because values must be applied to a problem before i t can be considered at a s t rateg ic l e v e l , and because no one interest proposing an a l locat ion of estuarine resources for port development can be expected to embrace more than one set of values, the values of additional legit imate i n t e r -ests must be brought to bear on a problem before i t can be conceptualized s t r a teg i ca l l y . A s t rateg ic approach to conceptualization of a port a l -locat ion problem must therefore be characterized by par t i c ipat ion of other estuarine resource users who may be affected to a s i gn i f i can t ex-tent by a proposed resource a l locat ion for port purposes. To a large extent, a strategic conceptualization of the port a l locat ion problem can only be val idated by i t s outputs at subsequent stages in the planning process. It should lead to a r ich group of a l ternat ives for evaluation, including alternate l eve l s , locat ions, and means of providing navigation and port f a c i l i t i e s . In short, the s t rateg ic approach should demonstrate an awareness that any use of estuarine resources w i l l poten-t i a l l y create opportunity costs which impact on other users of the es-tuary. The problem should thus be conceptualized in a manner which a l -17 lows for considerable f l e x i b i l i t y in seeking so lut ions, so that a l t e r -natives which r e f l e c t the concerns of other interests can be generated. b. Generation of a lternat ives r e f l ec t i ng the range of concerns of legit imate interests . A second characte r i s t i c of an ideal ports provision system i s that i t w i l l e l i c i t a range of a l ternat ives r e f l ec t i ng the concerns of a l l " l e g i -timate i n te re s t s " . These interests include a l l those l i k e l y to be af-fected by resolut ion of the problem. It should be noted that the range of legit imate interests includes not onlythosewho are resident in the estuary, but extends beyond i t to include those interests elsewhere who incur s i gn i f i can t costs or receive s i gn i f i can t benefits from a pro-posal. This c r i t e r i on is needed as a precursor to the estimation of ef-fects of a l ternat ives on interests and to the communication of soc ieta l preferences to elected representatives. I f an a l ternat ive favoured by an interest is not derived, that group w i l l have no basis for bargaining with other interests . c. Generation of good evaluative information on a lternat ives and com-munication of i t amongst interests . "Good" evaluative information means simply that the effects of a l te rna-t i ve courses of action on interests are i den t i f i ed and communicated to them in a manner which they comprehend. It means further that insofar as poss ible, any addit ional information on a l ternat ives that an interest feels i t needs to know in order to order i t s preferences i s generated and e f f ec t i ve l y communicated. 18 Several categories of evaluative information seem pa r t i cu l a r l y relevant to the problems considered in th i s thes i s . They include: - technical factors : w i l l the proposal work - environmental factors : what are the environmental effects - opportunity costs: what are they and who bears them - d i rect costs: are the estimates r e l i a b l e - regional considerations: is th i s the best regional choise - national considerations: is th is the best a l ternat ive from a national perspective These factors are explored at length in the next chapter, a f ter which the i r relevance w i l l appear c learer. The overal l purpose of evaluative information.is to i l luminate, to the extent pract icable, what the broad d i s t r i bu t i on of social costs and benefits w i l l be from the relevant a l -ternat ives. This information lays the basis for bargaining amongst in teres t s , and for democratic decision-making. d. Bargaining amongst legit imate interests . As stated above, th is thesis accepts the p r inc ip le that a bargaining pro-cess amongst legit imate interests is the most e f fec t i ve way of determin-ing socia l preferences for resource a l l oca t i on . (Haefele, 1972) At the problem de f i n i t i on and derivation of a l ternat ives stage i t w i l l ensure that a f u l l range of solutions re f l ec t i ng the breadth of values held by affected interests is derived. At the evaluation stage i t w i l l encourage the generation of evaluative information which meets the concerns of a l l interests . F i n a l l y , at the decision stage i t w i l l give elected representatives an ind icat ion of the strength and d i rec -tion of public preferences. 19 e. Accountabi l i ty to elected representatives. Ult imately, the choice of resource a l locat ion for port development must be made by elected representatives. They must make a c lear choice on the basis of information e l i c i t e d by the process. This means that repre-sentatives w i l l weigh a l l a l ternat ives and make a decis ion, not that they w i l l give t a c i t approval to a s ingle a l ternat ive derived by a s ingle interest . Nor w i l l representatives permit decisions to be made by non-elected o f f i c i a l s . Furthermore, representatives w i l l consider a l l the avai lable and relevant evaluative information, not ju s t a segment of i t . F i na l l y , they w i l l make the i r decision with f u l l knowledge of the d i s -t r ibut ion .o f public preferences for the relevant a l ternat ives . 4. Behavioural factors a f fect ing i n s t i t u t i ona l performance. A ports provision system which meets the c r i t e r i a described in the pre-vious section may be considered " r a t i o n a l " in the sense used by Banfield (1962, p. 71), in that "a l ternat ives and consequences are considered as f u l l y as the decision-maker, given the time and other resources a v a i l -able to him, can afford to consider them". However, considerable e v i -dence exists that there are many behavioural factors which i n h i b i t the optimal performance of a provision system in meeting the ideal c r i t e r i a . These are discussed in the fol lowing sections under two gener-al categories: l im i tat ions to the rat ional model of decision-making, and inter-organizat ional constraints. 20 a. The rat ional model of decision-making. As implied by Banf ie ld ' s d e f i n i t i o n , the rat ional model of dec is ion-making postulates that indiv iduals rank a l l known alternat ives in a con-s i s tent manner, consistently choose those a l ternat ives which provide the highest net benefit in terms of the i r own preferences, and when faced with uncertainty, fol low a-strategy of reducing i t through learning, followed by a re-ordering of preferences in the face of newly revealed opportunity costs. (Ostrom, 1971) Extending th i s approach to the con-cept of an in teract ive provision system, the model implies that a l te rna-t ives which optimize social benefits w i l l be derived i f the ideal c r i -t e r i a are met. b. Limitations of the rat ional model. A large body of l i t e r a tu re c r i t i qu i ng the rat ional model of dec is ion-making has developed in the past few years. It i s not intended that th is section provide a comprehensive review, but rather that a few factors that might be relevant to the ports provision system be iden-t i f i e d . i . Bounded r a t i ona l i t y . A large body of l i t e r a t u r e c r i t i qu i ng the rat ional model of dec is ion-making has developed in the past few years. Analysts such as Simon (1957) suggest that psychological and physiological factors lead to "bounded r a t i o n a l i t y " wherein decision-makers do not consider a l l pos-s ib le a l te rnat ives , but rather choose the f i r s t a l ternat ive which 21 " s a t i s f i c i n g " o r i s good enough.. Further, he postulates that indiv iduals are uncertainty avoiding, rather than uncertainty reducing. Other ob-servers suggest that " t ra in ing and soc i a l i za t i on to professional norms associated with the creation of a s p e c i a l i s t , are not soley processes of knowledge acqu i s i t i on , but also processes of formulating a perspective from which to view the world. . . To break the professional mold of thinking and reduce misspeci f icat ion of choice models, analysts must undergo a certa in amount of "unlearning". (Stanbury, Vertinsky and Vertinsky, 1978). The manner in which r a t i ona l i t y i s constrained within decision units helps explain how information is generated and u l t imately, how options are foreclosed to produce s oc i a l l y suboptimal a l locat ions . Simon (1957) suggests that decision-makers adapt to complex, uncertain environments by fac to r i z ing problems., replacing optimization by a satisf i 'c i ing pattern of choice, by avoiding uncertainty, and by developing standard operating procedures. Margolis (1958) characterizes the bounded r a t i ona l i t y choice process as a select ion of actions to s a t i s f y some present constraints. Thus the f i r s t feas ib le solut ion may be chosen without reference to any concept of opt imal i ty. Lindblom (1959), in another in terpretat ion , describes the process of pol icy formulation as one of incremental change at the margin. The actor would f i r s t set up simple and i m p l i c i t object ives, d i s -regarding other social values as beyond his in terest . As a second step, he would out l ine those r e l a t i v e l y few pol icy a l ternat ives that occured to him. He would then compare them. In comparing his l imited 22 number of a l te rnat i ves , most of them fami l i a r from past contro-vers ies, he would not o rd ina r i l y f ind a body of theory precise enough to carry him through a comparison of the i r respective consequences. Instead he would re ly heavily on the record of past experience with small po l icy steps to predict the con-sequences of s imi la r steps extended into the future (p. 80). Rat iona l i ty i s further bounded by the l imi ted capacity of indiv iduals to absorb information. "Part ic ipants who cannot absorb a l l the informa-t ion they are exposed to, tend to attend to that which reinforces cur-rent states, minimizes uncertainty, involves minimal reception costs (pleasing and/or easy to understand and/or short). Part ic ipants are l i k e l y to se lec t i ve l y reta in information, forgett ing information which creates internal c on f l i c t s of i s unpleasing in any other way." (Stanbury, Vertinsky, and Vertinsky, 1978) The l a t t e r point alludes to "cognit ive dissonance" (Festinger, 1957), a state of psychological discomfort or tension which occurs when an indiv idual i s forced to act in a manner which is contrary to his pr ivate at t i tude. The theory may be applied to interact ing organizations as well as ind iv iduals . Heberlein (1973) summarizes the work of Simon, Kates, White, and Cyert and March with respect to the theory of bounded r a t i o n a l i t y as fo l lows: the cognitive l imi tat ions of the decision-maker force him to construct a s imp l i f i ed model of the world in order to deal with i t . Man seeks sat i s factory rather than necessari ly optimal levels of achievement. Faced with d i f f i c u l t i e s in establ i sh ing the p robab i l i t i e s associated with various states of nature, people tend to s impl i fy the matrix of probable events by. zeroing out low probab i l i ty events or by adopting 23 one of several possible " f i x e s " to change the amount of v a r i a b i l i t y in the natural or human environment. These include: the technological f i x , used to reduce natural v a r i a b i l i t y , but which ignores long-term or low probab i l i ty events; the cognit ive f i x , which assumes improved information w i l l change behavior, but which ignores the ro le of b e l i e f s , a t t i tudes , and i n s t i t u t i ona l and social constraints; and the structural f i x which attempts to modify the decision structure by removing social constraints, but which is inh ib i ted by entrenched i n s t i t u t i ona l con-; s t ra in t s . Halperin, in an empirical work (Bureaucracy, P o l i t i c s and  Foreign Po l i cy , 1974) describes several methods of resolving "uncertainty by ce r ta in ty " , in support of a pos i t ion, including the use of pat images and arguments by analogy, inferences of transformation (wishful think-ing), inferences of impos s ib i l i t y , and negative images. i i . The role of perceptions and att i tudes. As implied by much of the l i t e r a t u r e described above, the perceptions and att i tudes of key actors in a decision process can severely con-s t ra in the achievement of a rat ional outcome. Bross (1953) postulates that actors w i l l seek information on the basis of the i r own values and understanding of the p robab i l i t i e s of future events. Thus the search for information which w i l l define problems or e l i c i t a l ternat ives i s constrained by perceptions and values. Furthermore, the information obtained in response to one of these factors w i l l l i k e l y a f fect the other one. 24 Where information must be communicated amongst decision units , att itudes and perceptions can be expected to play a cruc ia l ro le . Churchman, Mason and M i t ro f f have developed a theory of information/inquiry sys-tems " f i t ne s s " based on d i f fe rent psychological types. If differences in cognit ive s ty le occur between two groups, each w i l l repel information from the other; lesser differences w i l l resu l t in "noisy" communication. Other observers have noted that professional t ra in ing affects the range of choice considered. Sewell (1966) found that engineers considered the public to be dependent on the i r judgment, pa r t i cu l a r l y where techn i -cal or organizational complexities were concerned, a conclusion shared by White (1969) who noted that the public did indeed tend to re ly on experts for solutions to complex environmental problems. This led professionals to make assumptions about societal preferences which were not tested. Kneese and Smith (1966) concluded that professionals are i so lated from " l ay " people by a code of ethics which "creates a power-f u l , part ly insulated a t t i t ud ina l environment which encourages conform-i t y to accepted codes of behavior and established problem-solving techniques." (p. 308) Kates (1962) refers to the resource manager as being "the prisoner of experience". In summary, there are a number of studies which indicate that the r a -t i o n a l i t y of actors is l imi ted by values, a t t i tudes , and perceptions. These factors constrain the generation and acceptance of a l te rnat i ves , evaluative information, and of the legitimacy of f u l l y representative bargaining processes. 25 i i i . The role of uncertainty The most common reaction to uncertainty i s to ignore i t . (Quade, 1975) In resource management this approach is evident when decisions are made on the basis of any s ingle projection of future events. While some un-cer ta int ies can be reduced by invest igat ion, others can only be con-sidered as p r obab i l i t i e s , and s t i l l others may not be subject to analy-s i s because the nature of future outcomes i s unknown. It i s th i s th i rd category of " r e a l " uncertainties that is most frequently ignored in publ ic decision-making. For example, Yorque (1976) notes that environmental impact assessments frequently ignore the uncertainties of future societal interact ion with the b io log ica l system. A second l im i t a t i on to r a t i ona l i t y in the face of uncertainty i s to con-fuse the various categories by assuming that real uncertainties can be reduced to r i s k , or that r i s k can be eliminated by invest igat ion. Such an approach can lead to a misal locat ion of resources to produce evalua-t ive information which is i n v a l i d , and which ult imately leads to the adoption of a l ternat ives which f a i l to reduce the costs of uncertainty. c. Inter-organizational factors. The bargaining approach described e a r l i e r in th i s chapter i s based on the assumption that a l l affected interests w i l l be represented in the process of a l locat ing estuarine resources for navigation and port development. In r e a l i t y , the capacity of interests to bargain in favour 26 of a l ternat ives which meet the i r concerns i s severely constrained in many cases. The problem stems in part from the fact that the extent to which estuarine resources are public goods varies from one resource to another, and from one use to another. While deep sea shipping can be characterized as a "pr ivate good" because shippers can be excluded from using the estuary by rules and charges, other resource uses which compete for estuarine resources with deep sea shipping may not be able to do so. Olson (1965, p. 34) notes that w i th -out coercion, consumers of a co l l e c t i ve (or public) good w i l l not com-pensate for i t s provis ion. In the absence of the exclusion p r i n c i p l e , i t is d i f f i c u l t to determine the actual u t i l i t y that users obtain from u t i l i z i n g estuarine resources. Only certa in special i n s t i t u t i ona l arrangements w i l l give the indiv idual members an incentive to purchase the amounts of a co l l e c t i ve good that would add up to the amount that would be in the best interest of the group as a whole. This tendency toward suboptimality is due to the fact that a c o l l e c t i v e good i s , by d e f i n i t i o n , such that other indiv iduals in the group cannot be kept from consuming i t once any indiv idual in the group has provided i t for himself. The larger the group the smaller the f ract ion of the tota l group bene-f i t any person acting in the group interest receives, the less adequate is the reward for any group-oriented act ion, and the further the group w i l l f a l l short of getting an optimal supply of the good. I f , however, groups are organized for other purposes than the provision of public 27 goods, and are held together by coercion, they are in a strong pos it ion to lobby for the provision of publ ic goods from which they benefit. This may lead to reduced opportunities for other users which, while more numerous, are less well organized. "The pr iv i leged and intermediate groups often triumph over the numerically superior forces in the latent or large groups because the former are generally organized and act ive while the l a t t e r are normally unorganized and i nac t i ve " . (Olson, 1965, p. 128). One of the results of th i s " l og i c of c o l l e c t i ve act ion " problem i s that d i f fuse interests may not be well represented in the bargaining process. Transaction costs w i l l simply be too high for them to be able to obtain resources. Thus they w i l l not be able to generate a l ternat ives or evaluative information, or be able to evaluate choices presented. And they w i l l not be able to bargain to require others to do so on the i r behalf. F i n a l l y , they w i l l not be able to demonstrate the strength of the i r preferences to elected representatives. 5. Summary of the theory. This chapter has l a i d the theoret ical basis for invest igat ion of the performance of the ports provision system in the Fraser estuarine area. F i r s t , the f a i l u r e of the market to a l locate estuarine resources for navigation and port development in an optimal manner was described. There are two basic reasons for market f a i l u r e : ex te rna l i t i e s and opportunity costs are not taken into consideration by decision-makers, and there is imperfect competition in port supply. 28 Faced with market f a i l u r e , society has intervened to ensure the implemen-tat ion of soc ieta l preferences. The public interest was defined and a process for a l locat ing estuarine resources for navigation and port development according to the public interest through bargaining amongst affected interests was described. Next, some c r i t e r i a of an ideal ports provision system were described, based on the inter-group bargaining process. I t was argued that th i s process would e l i c i t a f u l l range of a l te rnat ives , good information on the effects of each a l te rnat i ve , and a c lear ind icat ion of societal pre-ferences for elected representatives. This process would be democratic and would meet the requirements of good resource management. F i na l l y , a cursory review of the l i t e r a t u r e on public decision-making revealed a number of impediments to optimal performance by a resource provision system. Chief amongst these were a number of constraints to rat ional performance by indiv iduals and i n s t i t u t i on s . L imitat ions to e f fec t i ve involvement in the bargaining process by poorly organized interests were also noted. 29 Chapter III Ident i f i cat ion of Affected Interests 1. Introduction. The purpose of th is chapter is to ident i fy the legit imate interests af -fected by the proposal to bui ld t ra in ing works in the main arm of the Fraser River. While the number of interests is potent ia l l y very large, only those who pay a major portion of the socia l costs or receive a major share of the benefits are included. Despite th i s a r t i f i c i a l bound-ing of affected in teres t s , the analysis w i l l show that potential bene-f i t s and costs extend beyond the Fraser estuarine area. For example, i f Pac i f i c salmon stocks are adversely af fected, socia l costs w i l l be borne by fishermen in a l l f i sh ing v i l lages on the B.C. coast. And i f port development att racts addit ional shipping which adds to the GNP, then national benefits w i l l accrue from the proposal. The methodology u t i l i z e d in th is chapter i s to f i r s t out l ine the env i r -onmental ef fects which have been i den t i f i ed as being l i k e l y to stem from the proposal. Social opportunity costs are then considered. Next, eco-nomic effects are analyzed, from avai lable data, including the sens i t i v -i t y of economic effects to alternate economic scenarios. F i na l l y , the major affected interests are summarized in re la t ion to the nature of incidences of costs and benefits. 2. Environmental concerns. The biophysical impacts of the t ra in ing works proposal can be considered in several phases. The construction phase would have an immediate im-pact, as i t would include the imposition of over 16,000 l inear metres of 30 rock wa l l s , groins, s i l l s , weirs and p i l e s . Table I in Appendix I sum-marizes the proposed modif ications. The purpose of the works is to scour 16 x 10^ m-^  of bedload material to the delta front. Approximately 7 years of "normal" freshets would accomplish t h i s , during which ve loc i t i e s within the shipping channel would increase at certa in times of the year. After th is period the proponents estimate that equi l ibr ium conditions w i l l be reinstated as the present cross-sectional area i s recovered. The th i rd phase of environmental ef fects includes the long-term changes in biophysical processes that can be antic ipated and the consequences of addit ional deep sea shipping and waterfront development that can be a t -tr ibuted to the improvements. Many of the environmental ef fects are quite uncertain. No one can es-timate with confidence jus t how serious they are l i k e l y to be. Thus the t ra in ing wall i s more in the nature of a threat than a definate cost. Therefore the environmental ef fects discussed in this section are based on the judgments of s c ien t i s t s gleaned from the l i t e r a tu re on this pro-posal, and from interviews with sc ient i s t s knowledgable in th is f i e l d . a. Effects on estuarine processes. The Fraser River carr ies about 3.5 m i l l i on tonnes of sediment into the lower reaches each year. About one-third i s deposited as bedload while the remainder is carr ied into the S t r a i t of Georgia. Sedimentation has created about 1900 hectares of t i da l marsh on Sturgeon Bank, Roberts Bank, and in Boundary Bay. A further 780 hectares of t i d a l marsh has developed in the r i ve r i t s e l f , near the mouth of the main arm. 31 The natural pattern of accretion and erosion in the estuary has been to a large extent modified by dyking, dredging, f i l l i n g , and r i ve r t ra in ing works. The most obvious ef fect of these changes has been the loss of wetland habitat. Table II in Appendix I shows the extent of th is loss. It should be noted that most of th i s loss occured over 60 years ago, when the r i ve r was dyked. Relat ive ly l i t t l e of the t i d a l mud f l a t s , eelgrass beds, and t i da l marshes have been l o s t , although many areas are currently under threat from various development proposals. Several questions have been raised about the potential ef fects of the t ra in ing works on sedimentation patterns. F i r s t , there is concern that the bedload material to be scoured from the channel may smother produc-t ive habitat downstream. Second, increased sedimentation may occur in the areas behind t ra in ing works. F i na l l y , sediment transport processes to the outer banks may be affected. It has been noted that "the exten-sive marshlands and t i da l f l a t s of the western delta front of the Fraser River evolved as a resu l t of the interact ion of r i ve r and marine processes. Accompanying changes in the a c t i v i t y of waves and currents have not always compensated for man-imposed a l terat ions to r i ve r flow. Furthermore, the dispersal routes of both s i l t and clay (essential to the maintenance of the marsh) and of sand (essential to the s t a b i l i t y of the outer sand f l a t s on which development has taken place) have been and w i l l be altered by the erection of engineering structures on or across the f l a t s . " (Habitat Work Group, 1978, p. 13) 32 Other questions have been raised about the effects of the works on the sa l t wedge and on the Fraser plume. If the s a l t wedge moves further into the r i ve r during low flow, changes in sedimentation patterns can be ex-pected. Changes in the Fraser plume would a l t e r the processes by which the r i v e r ' s fresh water flow mixes with the s a l t water of the estuary. b. Effects on b io log ica l product iv i ty . The Fraser estuarine area has been reported to contain 86 species of f i s h (Northcote, 1974) of which 12 are of commercial importance. Of these, salmon are the most valuable. Pinks average over 5 m i l l i on migrants in odd-numbered years, and 220 m i l l i on juveni les in even-numbered years. Juvenile sockeye average 45 m i l l i on annually while juveni le chum average 27 m i l l i on per annum. The t ra in ing works may adversely a f fect the mig-ration patterns and survival rates of these f i s h by changing r i ve r velo-c i t i e s . The major concern for f i sh i s , however, the p o s s i b i l i t y that s i gn i f i cant areas of habitat w i l l be Tost. The bui ld ing of the works and associated dredging and f i l l i n g w i l l smother some habitat, but i t i s the long term effects on sedimentation patterns which may be more s i gn i f i can t . I f ex i s t ing marshes are degraded there may be two e f fec t s : damage to food webs supporting salmon, and loss of marsh habitat essential to the su rv i -val of juveni le salmon. Figure T. shows the de t r i t a l food web. De t r i -tus from marshes contains nutrients which support the food webs that feed salmon. F i g u r e 1. I l l u s t r a t e d d i a g r a m o f t h e d e t r i t u s f o o d w e b t y p i c a l o f a s l o u g h / c h a n n e l t i d a l l . i a r s h h a b i t a t i n t h e F r a s e r E s t u a r y . 34 There is considerable uncertainty about the importance of marshes as habitat for salmon. Although some species have been found in most marshes, i t i s not known whether they reside there for prolonged periods, or whether they require marshes for acc l imat i zat ion, predator refuges, or staging areas before going to sea. While some research i s underway, i t i s un l ike ly that the magnitude of the effects of marsh loss on salmon can be estimated for many years. The Fraser marshes are also important for 203 species of b irds. (Hoos and Packman, 1974). Up to two m i l l i on ducks, f i ve m i l l i on shorebirds and thousands of other birds migrate annually through the estuarine area. In addit ion, 250,000 ducks, 20,000 snow geese and a m i l l i on shorebirds over-winter in the t i da l marshes and lowlands of the estuary. The Fraser estuary supports the largest population of wintering waterfowl in Canada and the marshes provide c r i t i c a l feeding areas for both migrants and over-wintering birds. If the t ra in ing works lead to increased deep sea shipping in the r i ve r and to addit ional waterfront development for port f a c i l i t i e s and indus-t r i a l development, further environmental effects can be ant ic ipated. One ef fect would be the loss of r ipar ian habitat and of natural areas on the adjacent upland. This could be quite detrimental to wi ldfowl, as many species require both marsh and upland habitat for the i r nest-ing, feeding, and roosting a c t i v i t i e s . Riparian vegetation also provides food for f i s h , although i t s importance in the Fraser i s not well; under-35 stood. A second ef fect of development would be further a l te rat ion to aquatic habitat from construction of wharves, f i l l i n g of waterfront lands, and construction of r iprapping. In addition to foreshore loss, i t i s l i k e l y that addit ional shipping would bring increased po l l u t i on . Larger ships with larger cargoes would bring higher r i sks of major s p i l l s from shipping accidents. F i na l l y , slack water behind the t ra in ing works w i l l be a t t rac t i ve for uses which benefit from a reduced current. Chief amongst these i s marina develop-ment, for which there are few remaining developable s i tes in the region. Such uses of backwater areas could increase habitat loss and po l l u t i on . The t ra in ing works may also lead to habitat creation in some areas by encouraging accretion and protecting accreted areas from freshets. There is some ind icat ion that t ra in ing works have led to marsh creation in the past. (WCHL, 1976) This section has touched on some of the major environmental concerns a r i s ing from the t ra in ing works proposal. These are considered in greater deta i l in Appendix I. It should be stressed, however, that there are considerable uncertainties about the nature and extent of biophysical e f fect s . While these questions are currently the subject of an env i r -onmental impact assessment, the complexity and long-term nature of antic ipated impacts w i l l leave many questions unresolved. 3. Opportunity costs. Social opportunity costs which can be ant ic ipated from the t ra in ing works proposal are summarized in th i s sect ion. No attempt is made to 36 estimate the precise degree of impact on other users, as th is i s beyond the objectives of the thes i s , and is presently the subject of invest iga-tion in an environmental impact statement. The purpose here is to iden-t i f y who would incur the opportunity costs and in what manner. a. Commercial f i shery The project can have two general effects on the v i a b i l i t y of the commer-c i a l f i shery. Any reduction in f i s h stocks w i l l resu l t in reduced eco-nomic returns from commercial f i she r ie s . The salmon f i shery is the most important in economic terms, providing a gross annual r e t a i l value of $86 m i l l i on in 1976 do l l a r s . (Fisheries and Environment Canada, 1976) While many of the province's 14,000 commercial fishermen are based out-side the lower mainland, most catch Fraser salmon. Thus many small coastal towns would be severely affected by reductions in annual al low-able catches. (Burns, 1977) In addit ion to fishermen, the industry employs some 3,000 people in the processing and tendering trades in the lower mainland, and industries aux i l i a r y to the f i shery spend about $100 m i l l i on per annum. (Fisheries and Environment Canada, 1976) F i na l l y , i t should be noted that a major salmonid enhancement program is underway in the Fraser system, aimed at producing an addit ional annual catch of 10 m i l l i on f i s h . Any reduction in f i s h habitat may be c r i t i c a l for th is program which w i l l produce an additional 200,000,000 juveni le migrants in the estuary each year. The second effect on the commercial f i shery would be in the nature of constraints on harvesting a c t i v i t i e s in the r i v e r . Changes in r i ve r 37 flow may make f i sh ing more d i f f i c u l t and increased deep sea t r a f f i c would create hazards to small c ra f t movement, the laying of nets, and hauling in of catches. The native food f ishery is important for both economic and cu l tura l reasons. As Bennett (1973) notes: " . . . the f i shery resource provides part of the food supply for a very high proportion of Indian fami l ie s . If the f i shery were adverse-ly af fected, a large number of Indians would be without s u f f i c i en t food. It i s doubtful whether a l ternat ive forms of sustenance would be accept-able. Most of those sampled said they would not substitute other foods in place of f i s h in the i r d iet . Furthermore, because of the fact that f i sh ing i s a fundamental part of the i r l i v e s , the loss of the f i shery would detach the Indian people from the culture which they have developed throughout the centur ies. " Clear ly reduction in f i sh harvesting capa-b i l i t i e s could have severe social impacts on the 91 Indian bands which are found along the Fraser system. b. Recreational f i shery. The recreational f ishery i s important for both commercial and le i sure a c t i v i t i e s of the people in the region. Recent surveys estimate that 20 percent of the lower mainland population part ic ipates in marine f i s h -ing and 10 percent part ic ipate in bar f i sh ing . Recreational f i sh ing would be adversely affected by reduced stocks, by increased v e l o c i t i e s , by increased movement of larger vessels, and by loss of f i sh ing bars. 38 The sport f i shery is also valuable as a source of tou r i s t revenue. It has been estimated that sports f i s h i ng in B.C. produced a tou r i s t expen-diture of $27 m i l l i on in 1975. (Fisheries and Environment Canada, 1978) Any reduction in f i sh stocks, f i sh ing bars, or qua l i ty of catch would af fect tour i s t expenditures. c. Wildfowl u t i l i z a t i o n . Wildfowl are important for commerical and recreational purposes. I t has been estimated that 5000 hunters hunted 77,000 days in the Fraser Estuary in 1977. (Fisheries and Environment Canada, 1978) Using " w i l l -ingness to pay" and "compensation required" methods respect ive ly, the Habitat Work Group of the Fraser River Estuary Study estimated the tota l annual value of wildfowl to be $6.7 m i l l i on and $13.7 m i l l i on respectively. Considering the broader contr ibution of wildfowl to general recreational enjoyment of the foreshore, the Habitat Work Group estimated b i rd - re la ted values for the general public to be from $25 m i l l i on per annum, using the wi l l ingness to pay method and the compensation required method respect ively. As noted in the second section of th is chapter, the major threat to w i l d -fowl associated with the t ra in ing works can be expected from the effects of por t - indust r ia l development, and associated loss of habitat. Some habitat may be lo s t through increased ve loc i t i e s in the channel, but these may be compensated for by accretion behind the t ra in ing works, assuming that such areas are not developed for other purposes. 39 d. Recreation and conservation. Impacts on recreation and conservation uses of the estuary are related in large measure, to addit ional i ndus t r i a l -por t development which can be expected to fol low from navigation improvements. Recreational use of the estuary i s estimated to vary from 400-600,000 people per day for peak summer periods and from 121-217,000 per day during winter months. User values (excluding values at t r ibutab le to birds) have been crudely es-timated to vary from $42 m i l l i on to $88 m i l l i o n , based on wi l l ingness to pay and compensation required methods respect ively. (Fisheries and Environment Canada, 1978) A major source of opportunity costs can be found in the loss of natural areas to development. These are becoming increasingly scarce and are i r rep lacab le. The value of the estuary to conservationists and to many recreat ion i s t s w i l l diminish in proportion to the loss of natural habi-tat s . And as such areas are not avai lable within the time and resource constraints of most residents, the effects may bear more heavily on low income residents. In addition to d i rec t loss , port development can be expected to bring aesthetic effects which reduce the recreation and conservation values of the estuary. Local residents have complained of noise, a i r po l l u -t ion and reduced visual attractiveness at the Fraser-Surrey docks. (EPS, pers. comm.) Additional structures in the r i v e r , addit ional vessel 40 movements in the r i v e r , and addit ional waterfront development w i l l re -duce the conservation values associated with the aesthetic features of the estuary. F i na l l y , development can be expected to reduce recreational access to the waterfront. Many of the recreational areas along the r i ve r are pr ivate ly owned or are owned by public agencies in ant ic ipat ion of development. The Recreation Work Group of the Fraser River Estuary Study strongly urged the designation of additional recreation s i te s in the estuary. In addition to blocking d i rect access, waterfront development can reduce visual access. e. Other opportunity costs. It i s possible that the project may reduce the potential for hydro-elec-t r i c development upstream. This subject is under invest igat ion. The costs of any such reduction would be borne by the residents of the Province at large, who presumably would face higher cost power generation a l t e r -natives . Changes in r i ve r levels and current patterns w i l l create costs for r i -parian landowners who must improve riprapping and dyking. (Inspector of Dykes, per. comm.) In other areas increased sedimentation may necessi-tate dredging for water access. The potential of the project for increas-ing the flood hazard i s discussed in section 4, below. Much of the waterfront land in the estuary is located in the Agr icu l tura l Land Reserve, or is adjacent to i t . Port and indust r ia l development w i l l 41 require improvement in land serv ic ing. These in turn w i l l cut through agr icu l tura l land, displacing high capab i l i t y land, bringing noise, po l -l u t i o n , and.visual degradation. The impact of transportation and u t i l i t y corridors on farming communities in the region has been well documented. (GVRD, 1976) F i na l l y , i t should be stressed that por t - indust r ia l development features many cumulative effects which may appear i n s i gn i f i can t for any s ingle use of the estuary 's biophysical resources. Thus, for example, while a l t e r -ations in natural drainage patterns at one s i t e may appear i n s i gn i f i c an t , runoff from a number of s i te s may produce a level of tox ic wastes which adversely af fects b io log ica l product iv i ty. I t i s unforeseen cumulative effects from spinoff developments related to an improved navigation chan-nel which provide much of the potential for additional opportunity costs. 4. Economic e f fec t s . a. National benefits and costs. i . Benefits. Three major benefits can be considered from the national accounting stance. F i r s t , there is the saving which can be expected from reducing the cost of maintaining the navigable waterway. These costs are currently paid by the Federal Government, so any saving would accrue to i t . Public Works Canada has estimated these savings to be $1,800,000 per annum in 1976 do l l a r s , assuming an 80% scour rate. (PWC, 1976) 42 A second major benefit would be derived from new businesses established soley as a resu l t of the project, and excluding sh i f t s in businesses from other areas. This i s a most d i f f i c u l t factor to estimate, as much of the vacant industr ia l ly-des ignated land in the region is located alon the Fraser, espec ia l ly the large vacant s i tes which are increasingly in demand. (GVRD, 1977) For growth to be at t r ibutab le to the t ra in ing works project i t must: a) require not only water access, but also the improved draft ob-tained from the t ra in ing works, and b) be a new business, not a s h i f t from other locations There does not appear, at th i s time, to be any detai led analysis of thes benefits. A th i rd benefit a t t r ibutab le to the proposal would be the amount saved by d ivert ing present t r a f f i c from higher cost modes of transport. Thus, to give a hypothetical example, the improvements may induce savings in shipping which make i t cheaper for the forest industry to ship lumber to the U.S. by water than by r a i l . A l ternate ly , shippers might f ind i t cheaper to ship v ia the Fraser than via the Port of Vancouver. No ana-l y s i s of th i s nature appears to have been undertaken to date. i i . Costs. The major cost to be considered is that of the planning, construction, and operating and maintenance costs at t r ibutab le to the proposal. Pub-l i c Works Canada has funded a l l hydraul ic, engineering, environmental, 43 and economic studies to date, with the exception of in-house costs i n -curred by other agencies to provide data and to evaluate the studies. The major costs incurred up to the i n i t i a t i o n of the formal environmen-tal impact statement are summarized in Table . Table I-Fraser River Shipping Channel Expenditures Study Completion Cost Date Baseline f i sher ies studies January,1978 300,000 (not i n c l . in-house FEC expendi.) Economic impact study (B.C. Research) October,1975 12,000 Hydraulic studies (Western Canada Hydraulics) 1976 350,000 I n i t i a l environmental evaluation(Envirocon)March,1976 34,000 In-house baseline studies (PWC) May,1976 99,000 Total 495,000 The cost of constructing the works has been estimated by PWC to be $31 m i l l i on in 1976 do l l a r s . An addit ional $500,000 would be required for property acqu i s i t i on , and maintenance costs are estimated to be $100,000 per annum after 5 years. (PWC, 1976) The potential of the project for increasing the f lood hazard should be considered from the national as well as the regional level as the Federal Government pays a substantial portion of f lood protection costs and may be expected to contribute substant ia l ly to any flood r e l i e f program. 44 The cause of concern i s that the t ra in ing structures, by decreasing the convective area of the r i v e r , could delay a flood wave unt i l the dykes are threatened. This factor i s important because the dyking system in the lower Fraser has been constructed to withstand a flood of the 1894 l e v e l . As f lood crests approach the flood of record, there i s an increas-ing probab i l i ty of f looding through dyke f a i l u r e . The Fraser i s bank-ful when 5.5 metres of water at Mission i s reached. It has been e s t i -mated that there i s a .66 probab i l i ty that 5.5 metres at Mission w i l l be reached in any given year, a .33 probab i l i ty that 6.1 metres w i l l be reached, and a .125 probab i l i ty that 6.7 metres w i l l be reached. Seven metres has been approached or exceeded s ix times since 1894. The dyking system has been b u i l t to withstand water elevations of 7.3 metres at Mission. (Canada-B.C. Fraser Joint Advisory Board, 1976) A flood of the 1894 level would inundate up to 74,870 hectares of f lood-plain in the Fraser Valley i f the dykes were to f a i l completely. I t has been estimated that there is a one in three probab i l i ty that the 1894 flood w i l l be equalled or exceeded during the 60 year period from 1973 to 2032. ( Ibid.) In sum, the t ra in ing works may increase the flood hazard e i ther by overtopping or by bank f a i l u r e . Assuming that the Federal Government would pay one half the cost of f lood r e l i e f and dyke reconstruction, i t can be said that half the cost of any increased flood hazard is paid by Canadian taxpayers at large. b. Regional benefits and costs, i . Benefits Derivation of the net benefits to the region from the project i s d i f f i -cu l t because of leakages from the regional economy. The object here is 45 simply to sketch the kinds of benefits which can be expected. One bene-f i t would be savings to local shippers from reduced transportation costs. This i s based on the assumption that shipping companies w i l l pass on part of the i r reduced costs to the i r customers. This may not be a r e a l -i s t i c assumption, given the f a i l u r e of the supply market outl ined in Chap-ter II. Nevertheless, i f savings do occur i t w i l l be because shippers are able to leave the harbour with f u l l e r loads and with less waiting for t i d a l a i d . As turnaround time is becoming an increasingly important factor in west coast shipping, th i s should reduce costs. The second regional benefit then is the increased p ro f i t s which local shipping companies can expect from reduced shipping costs. B.C. Research estimated that the requirement for t i da l aid costs shipping companies $1.25 m i l l i on per annum. (B.C. Research, 1975) As can be seen from Table II, DPW has estimated that the project w i l l provide draft of 35 feet above Ti lbury Island for 70% of the hours of the year while the ex i s t ing channel can only provide 28 feet for the same period. There is no doubt that the trend in deep sea shipping on the west coast i s t o -ward deeper draft and faster turnaround time. Pr io r to the 19601s the Fraser was v i s i t ed by r e l a t i v e l y small cargo vessels with drafts of less than 9.14 metres. In more'recent years, drafts for vessels in the l i n e r category have increased to the 9.75-10.6 metre range, with tramps a l i t -t l e greater. (Land Use Work Group, 1978) If shipping costs are reduced, addit ional demand can be ant ic ipated. FRHC has estimated that t r a f f i c w i l l increase by 5% per annum, with an 46 Table II Increased shipping draft resu l t ing from the Proposed Scheme Shipping Draft Draft A v a i l a b i l i t y as a Ft. Percentage of Hours in a Year  Ex ist ing Channel Improved Channel Upstream of Downstream of Ti lbury Ti lbury Island Island to the Mouth 22 100% 100% 100% 24 95 100 100 26 87 100 100 28 70 100 . 100 30 48 100 100 32 24 100 100 33 12 97 97 34 3 90 92 35 1 70 85 36 - 52 76 37 - 25 64 38 - 7 52 39 - 1 40 40 - - 25 41 - - 8 42 - 3 Note: (1) Due to variat ions in da i l y t ide levels and yearly changes in bed elevat ions, the above percentages are based on a typ ica l whole year. (2) Operational allowances could reduce some of the percentages which are shown to be less 100%. Example: A change in s a i l i n g time of 0.5 hour could change avai lable draft in the ex i s t ing channel by an average of 0.5 f t . This would reduce the a v a i l a b i l i t y as a percentage of hours in a year for 32 f t . draft from 24% to 18%. (3) Draft a v a i l a b i l i t y would be increased by incorporating waiting time during the day. (4) At certa in times of the year one-lane t r a f f i c i s assumed. (5) Necessary future improvements at Sandheads by dredging is assumed. Source: PWC, 1976 47 immediate increase in port revenue of $5,000,000 which w i l l accrue to local shipping companies and port operators. Much of this revenue w i l l go to the FRHC which operates the major deep sea docks in the r i v e r . As FRHC funds go to improve harbour f a c i l i t i e s and to promote harbour development, the benefits of FRHC's share w i l l u lt imately go to shipping companies and the i r customers. F i na l l y , i f local shipping companies i n -crease the i r p r o f i t s , i t can be expected that reduced shipping costs w i l l be ref lected in increased p ro f i t s for the i r customers. Thus water-oriented industr ies and other businesses that ship v ia the Fraser can be expected to receive a share of the benefits from the project. Companies contracted to construct the works w i l l receive substantial benef its, as w i l l local labour hired to work on i t . Regional employ-ment w i l l also be boosted by any increases in port-re lated jobs associated with increased shipping. FRHC estimates that wages from these a c t i v i t i e s w i l l amount of $38 per ton of increased goods shipped, or $47,500,000 over 10 years ( in 1976 do l l a r s ) . (DPW, 1975) i i . Costs The major regional cost from the project could be the cost of increased flood damage. The reasons for th i s hazard were described e a r l i e r in this chapter. Although many of the d i rect costs of a f lood would be compensated for by Provincial and Federal Governments, i t i s l i k e l y that impacts on the regional economy would not be. Major costs could accrue 48 to farmers, as much of the region 's agr icu l tura l land i s in the Fraser f loodp la in , to residents of low ly ing urban areas l i k e Richmond, and industr ies , which could suffer damage from s i l t carr ied by flood waters. The region would also incur a proportion of the costs of constructing and maintaining the t ra in ing works in proportion to i t s share of Federal income tax co l l ec t i on s . Assuming the region pays these in proportion to i t s share of the national population, the regional share would amount to about 5% or $1.55 m i l l i on in capita l costs. c. Local benefits and costs. While most regional benefits and costs a t t r ibutab le to- the project ex-tend throughout the region, several are quite l oca l i zed . Benefits from increased taxes w i l l accrue to local munic ipa l i t ies in which addit ional industr ies induced by the project are located. In pa r t i cu l a r , the muni-c i p a l i t i e s of Richmond, Delta, and Surrey, where future indust r ia l de-velopment is most l i k e l y , w i l l benef it. In addit ion, those munic ipa l i t ies in the region with vacant industr ia l ly-des ignated land may benefit from indust r ia l expansion i f reduced shipping costs encourage indust r ia l growth. Langley is the most l i k e l y candidate in th is category as i t has good land transportation l inks to the Fraser-Surrey docks. Munic ipa l i t ies along the lower main arm of the Fraser can also be expected to incur costs from waterfront development. These w i l l include the re-49 quirement to extend municipal services and transportation networks. F i na l l y , local munic ipa l i t ies w i l l pay a portion of the cost of provid-ing FRHC port f a c i l i t i e s , as these i n s ta l l a t i on s do not pay municipal taxes. d. The effects of alternate port development scenarios on the inc iden-ces of benefits and costs. There i s considerable uncertainty about the future of deep sea shipping on the west coast. These uncertainties may resu l t in. low, medium, or high growth rates for deep sea shipping in the Fraser, even i f the t r a i n -ing works are constructed. Anticipated rates of growth re late to i n -creases in international demand, to supply constraints at other regional ports, and to changes in international shipping technology. Table. I l l outl ines some of the major factors . Table III Fraser River Harbour Development Scenarios Rate of Growth in Deep Sea Shipping Assumption Low Medium High Types of cargo shipped to and from region Accel lerated s h i f t to container and bulk Present trends continue Accel 1erated growth in general and spec ia l ized cargoes Capacity of other regional ports Expansion to retain adequate capacity at other regional ports Capacity of Vancouver constrained Capacity at Vancouver exceeded 50 Table. III(Cont'd) Assumption Low Medium High Draft requirements Grow beyond 40 feet for vessel types using Fraser S t ab i l i z e at 35 feet Stabi1ize at 30-35 feet Annual growth in regional deep sea shipping Less than 5% Around 5% Over 5% Structure of regional economy Continued s h i f t to Growth in p r i -t e r t i a r y and quater- mary and secon-nary sectors dary sectors High rate of growth in primary and secondary sectors While these assumptions may a f fect the economic v i a b i l i t y of the project and a l t e r the quantity of net economic benefits derived, i t does not appear that the overal l d i s t r i bu t i on of benefits and costs would be substant ia l ly altered amongst nat iona l , reg ional , and local levels or amongst interests in the region. Thus i t i s not necessary to extend this analys is , as the objective of ident i fy ing interests affected by economic impacts has been met. 5. Summary of affected interest s . The major interests affected by the t ra in ing works proposal have now been i den t i f i e d . These are summarized in Table .IV, The Training Works Proposal, Some Incidences of Costs and Benefits. This table includes some items which are self-explanatory and have not been discussed in the e a r l i e r sections of this chapter. Chief amongst these are the various costs to public agencies accruing from the project and i t s spinoff developments. Affected Interest TABLE ' IV The Training Works Proposal, Some Incidences of Costs and Benefits Incidences of Costs Secondary Effects on Pol icy Fisheries and Marine Service Canadian W i l d l i f e Service Inland Waters Directorate Environmental Protection Service Land Management Branch Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch Regional D i s t r i c t s Mun ic ipa l i t ies B.C. Hydro Transport Canada Commercial fishermen Fish processors/tenderers Recreational bar fishermen Reduced salmon enhancement capab i l i t i e s , costs of managing harvesting, research and monitor-ing costs Costs of addit ional research Increased costs of dyke construction and rehab i l i t a t i on Additional monitoring costs Increased cost of referra l s and impact assess-ments from development Increased cost of referra l s and impact assess-ments from development Costs of extending regional trunk services, impacts on regional recreation s i tes Costs of serv ic ing, transportation improvements Reduced power options upstream Cost of a l te r ing navigation aids Reduced catch, increased navigation hazards, increased cost of docks Reduced business and jobs Loss of bars, water access, aesthetic e f fect s , reduced catch Fish k i l l s during construction, loss of habitat, reduced water qua l i ty Threat of development a f fect ing wildfowl habitat Increased dyke maintenance and bank protection costs Reduced water qua l i ty Pressure to implement biophysical c r i t e r i a for land use ^ Loss of f i s h and w i l d l i f e stocks and habitat Pressure on regional plans: ORP, LRP, open space conservancy Pressure on municipal plans Affected Interest Incidences of Costs Secondary Effects on Pol icy Recreational boat fishermen Recreationists Conservationists Natives Dredging companies Agr icu l tura l Land Commission Farmers Parks Branch Ministry of Highways Hunters Riparian land owners Treasury Board (Federal) Po l lut ion Control Branch Reduced catch, navigation hazards, aesthetic ef fects Aesthetic e f fec t s , reduced water access, noise during construction, reduced access, po l lut ion Loss of natural areas, loss of w i l d l i f e , aesthetic e f fec t s , noise, po l l u t i on , loss of access to r i ve r Reduction in food f i shery, aesthetic e f fect s , loss of r i v e r access Loss of business, loss of access to borrow s i tes Cost of addit ional appeals for ALR exclusions Increased transportation and servicing networks through agr icu l tura l areas, noise, aesthetic ef fects Degradation of recreation values at designated s i tes Cost of improving transportation grid Loss of hunting areas and wildfowl Cost of increased bank protection/dredging for access, cost of extending sewer ou t fa l l s beyond t ra in ing works Capital cost of t ra in ing works Cost of increased enforcement related to waterfront development Loss of farmland ro Degradation of recreation values at undesignated s i tes Pressure to a l t e r regional trans-portation plan Affected Interest Water Investigations Branch Pub!ic Works Canada Regional residents Shallow draft shippers Federal Government Deep sea shippers Shipping Companies Port Operators Regional labour Munic ipal i t ies Incidences of Costs Secondary Effects on Pol icy Cost of increased water qual i ty monitoring Costs of engineering and maintenance 5% of cap i ta l cost through income taxes, increased flood hazard Increased fuel costs from faster ve loc i ty , increased congestion and hazard from deep sea vessels Incidences of Benefits Savings on channel maintenance costs, increase in GNP from new businesses on Reduced shipping costs Increased p ro f i t s Increased p ro f i t s Additional jobs from construction of project, from increased shipping, and from economic growth induced by reduced shipping costs Increased taxes from port and industr ia l development 54 Chapter IV H i s to r i ca l Antecedents to the Training Works Proposal 1. Early development of the Fraser Port. This chapter outl ines the h i s to r i ca l factors that have led to the t r a i n -ing works proposal. A b r ie f history of the Fraser port i s followed by an introduction to the involvement by major actors in the port pro-v is ion system. These include the Fraser River Harbour Commission and Public Works Canada, both of which were c losely t ied to the early de-velopment of the port. A discussion of the more recent involvement of Fisheries and Environment Canada fol lows. F i na l l y , the key h i s t o r i c a l factors leading to the present proposal are summarized. This chapter thus provides a l i nk between the theory presented in Chapter II and the description of the t ra in ing works decision process in Chapter V for i t outl ines past interact ions amongst major interests and helps explain some of the behavioural factors exhibited in more recent events. The Fraser River and i t s resources have been used by man since prehis-to r i c times. Native populations depended on the Fraser as a transpor-tat ion route and as a source of food, pa r t i cu l a r l y i t s abundant salmon and eulichan resources. Simon Fraser, the f i r s t white man to explore the region from the landward side in 1805, t rave l led down the r i ve r that was to bear his name. Although Fraser was disappointed to discover that the r i ve r was not an arm of the Columbia, a modest white settlement was established by the Hudson Bay Company for fur trading purposes, at Fort Langley. The location of the f o r t marked the upstream extent of vessel movement under s a i l . 55 J In 1857 gold was discovered north of Kami oops. Fortune-seekers from the gold f i e ld s of Ca l i fo rn ia flocked there, many using the Fraser as a route, turning up the Harrison, and crossing overland northeast of Harrison Lake. In 1858, in response to the i n f l ux of over 30,000 miners, Governor Douglas enl i s ted the Royal Engineers to lay out a townsite at New Westminster. The location of the town was determined part ly by st rateg ic factors ; i t was located on the north side of the r i ve r to re s i s t American invasion. Its locat ion on the Fraser was l o g i c a l , as the r i ve r was the main route to Fort Langley and to the i n t e r i o r go ld f ie lds . The announcement of the Caribou gold rush had brought an in f lux of Amer-ican, steamers to the Fraser, although small steamers had previously served the post at Fort Langley. In 1859 Governor Douglas issued a proclamation that Queensborough ( l a te r New Westminster) was to be the sole port of entry for the mainland colony. Duties on imported goods and pi lotage fees were charged to provide the revenue to improve communication with V i c to r i a . As New Westminster grew, local businessmen lobbied for i t s development as a deep sea port in competition with V i c t o r i a . However, ocean-going s a i l i n g c ra f t could not navigate Sandheads and the lower reaches of the Fraser without d i f f i c u l t y . The f i r s t overseas cargo out of the port was on December 14, 1859, a schooner taking cabinet wood and cranberries to 56 San Francisco. The second ship to arr ive had to be towed through Sand-heads. Most of the early t r a f f i c was l o c a l , with V i c to r i a the major dest ination. Sa i l i ng vessels and steamers a l i ke suffered frequent disasters. In 1860 New Westminster businessmen formed a Harbour Committee and urged City Council to "take some immediate action re la t i ve to the water Front-age". (New Westminster Times, November 17, 1860) A long and b i t t e r batt le with the Port of V i c to r i a ensued. Ea r l i e r in the year V i c to r i a had been proclaimed a free port and NW businessmen complained that th i s put them in an unfair competitive pos i t ion. John Robson, spokesman for the merchants, demanded equal opportunities with V i c t o r i a , and demanded government assistance to bu i ld up deep sea trade. However, Governor Douglas refused to provide other than minor assistance in bui ld ing wharves, i n s i s t i n g that NW "pay as you go". In 1864 Douglas was replaced by Seymour. Separate governors were appointed for B r i t i s h Columbia and Vancouver Island, and a period of hos t i le compe-t i t i o n followed. Seymour pressed NW's case for deep sea connections with San Francisco, mentioning in an o f f i c i a l dispatch that the r i ve r entrance was "deep, p lac id and undevious". This statement was somewhat tarnished l a te r in the year when H.M.S. Tribune stuck fast in the r i ve r and had to be scrapped. Robson blamed the p i l o t and the B r i t i s h Columbian urged that "With a l i gh t sh ip , a steam tug - - with proper buoys, enough of 57 them, and properly maintained, we need not fear . " (25 June, 1864) A l i ghtsh ip was i n s t a l l ed in 1865 but was not followed by the ant ic ipated l i ne of steamers from San Francisco. Union was proclaimed in 1866 and Seymour was made Governor of the com-bined colony. However, V i c to r i a was chosen as the c a p i t a l , and NW went into a depression unt i l the early 1870's. The port survived on f re ight movements upriver to Valley settlemtns, and on the increasing volumes of salmon and lumber trade. The f i r s t commercial salmon cannery on the Fraser was b u i l t at Annie-v i l l e in 1870, (although salted salmon were shipped to the Sandwich Is-lands in barrels by Hudson Bay Company as early as 1835). Other can-neries p ro l i f e ra ted , and by 1900 the Fraser supported the world 's most productive salmon f i shery. Lumber had been produced and moved by water in the Fraser since the ea r l i e s t days of New Westminster. But the un su i t ab i l i t y of the r i v e r for ocean-going vessels soon led to use of the more favourable a t t r i -butes of Burrard In let . In the early 1860s the t r a i l from NW to Burrard Inlet was improved to a road and a number of m i l l s were esta-blished there. By 1877 i t was claimed that "at least s i x hundred ships of large tonnage. . . have entered to load and have l e f t the port, not one of which received any damage." (CPR: Reports on Explorations, Surveys, and Preliminary Operations, Sanford Fleming, Ottawa 1874 and 1877) 58 Given the natural super ior i ty of Burrard In let as a deep-sea port, i t was not surpr is ing that i t should have been chosen as the western t e r -minus of the CPR in the early 1870s. The commencement of the railway led to a boom for New Westminster and for steamers supplying crews bringing the r a i l s down the Fraser Valley towards Port Moody. Once completed, the railway encouraged up-valley settlement. New Westminster soon became a prosperous market town for the region. In 1888 a branch l i ne of the railway was b u i l t from Port Coquitlam to NW and on i t were constructed the Ross, McLaren Sawmills (now Fraser M i l l s ) . While some overseas shipments of lumber followed, and the salmon trade was already well establ ished, the harbour remained largely a shallow-draft port, serving the immediate region. Throughout these years NW had managed to push the Dominion government into some r i ve r improvements. The c i t y had established docks along much of i t s waterfront, leasing these to private operators. But by the turn of the century developments in world shipping made i t c lear that the Fraser would soon be unable to compete as a deep sea port. Sa i l i ng vessels were being replaced by larger twin-screw steamers. The Panama Canal, designed for larger vessels, was nearly complete in 1908. The New Westminster City Council and Board of Trade decided, in 1908, to hire an expert to develop a plan to improve the r i ve r channel. Mr. J . Francis le Baron, a renowned r i ve r engineer, who had worked on the 59 M i s s i s s ipp i , was asked to review the s i tua t ion . In 3 weeks LeBaron issued a report proposing $3,250,000 in physical improvements to the main arm as well as t ips on dredging. His major proposal was for 2 para l le l j e t t i e s at the r i ve r mouth, groynes at Ann iev i l l e and wing-dams at Woodward's slough. He estimated these would take 3 years to construct. The Mayor, urged on by the River Improvement Committee, went to Ottawa to convince the Government to enact the scheme. He was able to report that the recommendations had been "favourably considered by the Minis-ter of Public Works, Hon. Mr. Pugsley". (Minutes of NW Council Meetings, 1908) The report had been previously approved by the Resident Public Works Engineer. The lobbying had i t s desired e f f ec t ; a permanent dredging programme was begun in 1909 and construction of the Steveston North Jetty started in 1911. Further, in 1913, the Government created the New Westminster Harbour Commission and the North Fraser Harbour Commission. Each commission had 3 commissioners, 2 appointed by the Federal Cabinet, and one l o c a l l y appointed by municipal Councils. Since 1913, the role of pressing for port development has been assumed by the FRHC, on behalf of local mun ic ipa l i t i e s , industry, and port interests . 2. The Role of the Fraser River Harbour Commission The Fraser River Harbour Commission was incorporated as the New West-minster Harbour Commission in 1913. (New Westminster Harbour Commission  Act, 1913) The new body was charged with the re spons ib i l i t y for ensur-60 ing the orderly development of the Fraser River Harbour and i t s safe use for navigation. Although a federal ly-created body, i t has always had strong t ies with local interests . In f ac t , th i s was the intent of such "municipal harbour commissions" across Canada. The harbour com-mission form of administration dates from before Confederation. ( Inter-departmental Group on Canadian Ports, Ottawa, 1968, p. 6) The Gibb Report (1931/2) notes that there were two types of commissions. Federal commissions were comprised exclus ively of commissioners appointed by the Federal Government. Municipal Commissions included a minority of municipally appointed commissioners as well as the majority of federa l l y appointed ones. Vancouver was o r i g i n a l l y a federal commission while the Fraser River commission was municipal. The extent of municipal involvement in port development i s exemplified by New Westminster's bylaw 148 (1912) allowing the borrowing of $500,000 for the construction of docks. Total cost to the local taxpayer over -the 50 years of the loan was $1,346,637. Users of these f a c i l i t i e s did not pay the i r f u l l cost, for in 1958, when i t became necessary to rebui ld them, the City found that "Revenue from leases and rentals over the period 1915-1958 has been i n s u f f i c i en t to cover i n te re s t , sinking fund payments, loss of taxes and maintenance costs. As a resu l t no de-preciat ion fund has been establ i shed." (City of NW, 1958) In addition to bui lding i t s own docks, the City also supported private ventures. In 1931, the City guaranteed interest on debentures for 61 Pac i f i c Coast Terminals, in the amount of $300,000. A tota l of $420,000 was paid by the City over the l i f e of these debentures. More recent ly, in 1952, the City gave up water lot s valued at $400,000 to the FRHC, on the condition that modern docks be b u i l t . The Board agreed to bui ld docks at an estimated cost of $1,250,000, and to lease them to private interests . In i t s early years the FRHC endeavoured to compete with the Port of Vancouver for international trade. I t did so by encouraging investment in the Port by pr ivate in teres t s , the City of New Westminster, and the federal government. The 1926 Annual Report stated that " I t i s the pol icy of the commissioners to encourage indust r ia l development in the har-bour by private in teres t s , rather than to favour the investment of pub-l i c funds in the construction of terminals, docks, etc. In the past few years substantial progress has been made in th is respect and other large and important projects are pending". The "substantial progress" comprised four pr ivate dock f a c i l i t i e s , with a tota l length of 4100 feet and 5 warehouses with a storage capacity of 90,000 square feet. The " large and important projects " pending were Pac i f i c Coast Termin-a l s , under construction at NW, and a proposed grain elevator, to be bu i l t by the Commission i t s e l f . The Commission f e l t obliged to admit that the i r pol icy of pr ivate development had been "modified" with re -spect to the grain elevator. In fact the project was a "pork ba r re l " p o l i t i c a l decis ion, ( interview with McLaren). The federal government 62 in 1927 agreed to guarantee a $700,000 bond issue for i t and the 1927 Annual Report reported that the 1800 feet of water frontage and 12 acres, of reclaimed land, plus 60 acres on shore, "gives th i s property great p o s s i b i l i t i e s for future use and development." I t was hoped that th is project would encourage future port development by private i n t e r -ests. Unfortunately, the grain elevator did not turn out to be as prof i tab le as ant ic ipated. Its twin was never b u i l t , and in l a t e r years the Com-mission noted " . . . the elevator was never used to i t s f u l l e s t poten-t i a l and did in fact towards the end of i t s useful days become a burden and a l i a b i l i t y rather than an asset." (Br ief to Mayor of NW, May 11, 1971) In 1930 S i r Alexander Gibb took the Commission to task, s tat ing that "There is every evidence that a competitive s i tuat ion i s a r i s ing between the Fraser. River ports and Vancouver, only made possible by the extensive outlay of Federal funds" (para 334) and that "The prosperity and progress of the country as a whole depend, however, on the Port of Vancouver to a much greater extent than on the Fraser River, and demand that the development of Vancouver should not be handicapped or pre-judiced in any way, as would necessari ly be the resu l t i f th is subsidized competition were to continue. . . . The log ica l course would be to develop the l a t t e r as the lumber port and also as an indust r ia l area." (para 336) Gibb was a l luding to the overdevelopment of port f a c i l i t i e s by harbour commissions throughout the country, which was a major factor in motivating the Federal government to establ i sh his Royal Commission. 63 It has been stated that "Unt i l the 1930's, Canadian ports were a f f l i c t e d with the same weaknesses that had attended the Country's railway po l icy: over-construction during boom periods, f i e rce competion resu l t ing in bankruptcy followed by government loans or takeovers during recessions." (Interdepartmental Group on Canadian Ports, 1968) This echoes Gibb's appraisal of the FRHC grain elevator: " I t is necessary to protect ex i s t ing interests from indiscr iminate competition and to see that the f a c i l i t i e s are not mul t ip l ied in temporary boom conditions to a degree unjus t i f ied by normal requirements." (Gibb, 1931/2, para 310) Gibb was also c r i t i c a l of the Commission's po l icy of charging nominal harbour dues, while the Federal government expended large sums on chan-nel improvements, to which shipping interests were not contr ibut ing. The Commission responded that "In carrying out River Improvements the Federal Government was protecting established industr ies , which rep-resent an investment of mi l l i ons of do l l a r s , and providing for future development i n d u s t r i a l l y , and results.have shown th is expenditure am-ply j u s t i f i e d and in the National i n te re s t . " (FRHC, 1933) Nevertheless, the Commission responded to Gibb's j i be by ra i s ing harbour dues to two cents per net ton. While attempting to encourage deep sea shipping with negligable harbour dues and water l o t renta l s , the Commission continued to encourage further improvements to the navigable channel by the Department of Publ ic Works. In 1926 the Commission reported in i t s Annual Report, " I t i s confidently 64 expected that these works (extensions to Steveston Jetty) when completed w i l l be the means of providing a deep permanent channel at the shoaler stretches in the r i ve r and that the necessity for dredging w i l l to a large extent be obviated. This has been the experience with works of th i s character already constructed." Again, in 1928: "Author it ies continue to work at confining the r i ve r to i t s proper channel to esta-b l i sh a goal of 30 feet minimum depth." (Annual Report) The ambition of using control works to achieve a stable 30 foot minimum draft has not been rea l i zed. Figure 2, Dredging, Control Works and Channel  Depth, shows that considerable increases in annual maintenance dredg-ing have accompanied the construction of control works, up to the completion of the t r i f u r ca t i on works. Redevelopment of the old elevator s i t e as a deep sea cargo dock in the 1960s could not have occured without the bui lding of the t r i f u r c a t i o n works fol lowing the i n i t i a t i o n of model studies on the main arm. The elevator s i t e was for many years subject to annual i n f i l l i n g which made the dock inoperative for deep sea vessels for 2 to 4 months of the year, with draft re s t r i c ted to 17 feet. As Pretious and Vollmer note in the i r H i s to r i ca l Review of River Training and i t s Effects in the New  Westminster Area. (1960) "Bui ld ing the grain elevator on the l e f t bank at the locat ion shown on the 1926 map and requir ing greater depths there than the ex i s t i ng , natural depths of 16 to 22 feet below local low water, was a r i sk because greater depths could only be obtained by dredging or by addit ional structures. " (p. 10) In 1958 an engineering study stated, The first dredging Start of north Steveston .jetty North jetty.cVsoufh jetty completed Trifurcation completed [ 4 0 ' Depth of deep sea channel incl. tidal aid (feet) 2 - 0 1.5 1 . 0 0 . 5 amount dredged (million cu..^ds) Channel Depth Dredging 3 0 2 0 1 0 13S0 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 74 source, Dept. of Public Works Figure 2. Dredging, Control Works and Channel Depth 66 "Since dredging is required at the elevator each year, the uncertainty of adequate depth considerably reduces the usage of th is f a c i l i t y . " (C.B.A., 1958, p. 61) In the early 1950's, DPW, with FRHC's encouragement, had achieved a 27 foot deep sea channel to NW, with t i da l a id . By 1958 this was not, however, considered adequate by FRHC, who contacted an engineering f i rm to provide information on economic development of the harbour, inc lud-ing a spec i f i c requirement to consider "Channel widths, depths, anchor-ages, e t c . , to serve and support ships f i ve hundred and f i f t y feet in length, fourteen thousand tons dead weight, and t h i r t y foot draughts." (C.B.A., 1958, p. 1) This report suggested the construction of engin-eering works at Sandheads, Steveston Cut, Ti lbury ( s ic ) Range, St. Mungo Bend, Ann iev i l le Channel, and in the Tr i fu rcat ion Area. But the report went on to warn that " I t cannot be too strongly emphasized that th i s indicat ion i s tentat ive, and that any programme of t ra in ing works must be designed on the basis of a f u l l y detai led study, which must deal with the whole length of the navigation channel as one ent i ty and not treat indiv idual sections as i f they existed in i s o l a t i o n . " ( I b id . , P. 13) Tests on the U.B.C. Model had advanced by 1961 to the point where the Federal Government announced a 3 to 4 m i l l i on do l la r t ra in ing scheme at t r i f u r c a t i o n . A year e a r l i e r Canadian C o l l i e r i e s , located adjacent to the Fraser River Elevator, had written to a committee of the Dominion 67 Government Departments of Public Works and Transport with a b r ie f pro-posing improvement plans for the NW t r i f u r ca t i on area. The Company was concerned that previous t ra in ing works had increased s i l t i n g in front of the i r docks. This appears to have been the case. The same year the NW Chamber of Commerce requested a larger-scale New Westminster Model. Presumably th i s was to encourage expansion of the model to include the north arm, which was undergoing indust r ia l development. (The NFHC un-dertook a f e a s i b i l i t y study of increasing the north arm channel draft to 20 feet in 1965) When the U.B.C. model was dismantled in 1961, i t was confidently predicted in Ottawa by "observers", presumably senior DPW o f f i c i a l s , (Financial Post, Nov 4, 1961) that another would be b u i l t in several years. How-ever, with the change in federal government in 1963, NW c i t y council found i t necessary to support a b r ie f by FRHC urging completion of t r i -furcation plans, which seems to have been "qu iet ly pigeon-holed or swept under the rug". (Province, Oct 3, 1963) The 1961 t r i f u r ca t i on works were c l ea r l y in l i ne with the opt imi s t i c development plans of local governments in the region. The Chairman of FRHC said of the works, "This w i l l be a wonderful thing for the port of NW. It is the s ta r t of a development program which we hope w i l l con-tinue over a long per iod." (Province, Sept 28, 1961) Three months l a te r the LMRPB recommended reclamation of 10,400 acres of "waterlogged" 68 land at the mouth of the Fraser to meet a " c r i t i c a l need" for indus-t r i a l waterfront. Major proposals were also under consideration to develop Boundary Bay and Squamish. (Dec 23, 1961, JCW) The FRHC became heavily involved in the development of deep sea ports in the Fraser in the 19601s and 1970's. These i n i t i a t i v e s are discussed in the next chapter. They began with the acquis i t ion of waterfront land in south Richmond in 1969 and the development of Fraser-Surrey docks (1968-71) 3. Improvements to the navigable channel. The Federal Department of Public Works has been act ive in the Fraser since the 1880's. A program of snag removal was implemented in 1882 to aid log movement in t r ibutary channels and to increase depths at the mouth of the main arm. Three years l a t e r , at the request of the Board of Trade of the City of New Westminster, the lower reaches of the Fraser were surveyed "to determine the f e a s i b i l i t y of obtaining a deep water channel from the S t r a i t of Georgia into the r i v e r . " (Fraser River History of Improvements, p. 13) A year l a t e r , in 1886, the f i r s t control works were b u i l t at the mouth of the main arm. They consisted of brush mattresses and rock j e t t i e s , intended to close channels breaking out of the main channel through Sandheads. Two thousand nine hundred and f i f t y feet of Dam No. 1 were b u i l t in 1886, with another 10,580 added in 1893 to counteract scouring 69 around the west end. Three wing dams, t o t a l l i n g 1600 feet were also added along the channel face. By 1888 the minimum flow through Sand-heads was increased from 8 feet to 10 feet. The channel was also improved through dredging. Pr ivate dredging had begun in 1880, at Woodwards Slough. In 1892 a s a i l i n g ship grounded at Ann iev i l l e Bar and DPW began maintenance dredging there. Tide guages were established at Garry Point, and a topographic survey was carr ied out in 1898. Three years l a te r a suction pipel ine dredge costing $100,000 was acquired by the Department. A second dredge, a sea-going hopper dredge, was obtained short ly afterward at a cost of $250,000. Regular maintenance dredging began in 1909. As early as 1894 i t was apparent to DPW that extensive control works would be required to maintain a deep sea channel without dredging. That year, the resident engineer proposed pa ra l l e l j e t t i e s at the mouth of the main arm. However, th i s proposal was to l i e dormant for 14 years, un-t i l local p o l i t i c a l pressure forced consideration of a s im i la r scheme. By that time (1910), DPW had spent over 1.4 m i l l i on dol lars on the main-tenance of the navigable channel. (DPW, 1949) Over the next 40 years, DPW b u i l t extensive control works on the r i ve r (and in the early years, added bank protection) to produce a s a t i s f a c -tory depth for shallow draft and deep sea navigation with a minimum of dredging. In 1919 the Geological Survey undertook the f i r s t geological invest igat ion of the r i v e r , " la rge ly for the purpose of aiding the DPW to determine by what engineering methods the navigable parts of the r iver might be improved." (Johnson, 1919, p. 1) The report concluded 70 that "changes detrimental to navigation w i l l go on indef inate ly unless protection is afforded the outer sides of the bends, where erosion is most a c t i ve . " (p. 41) In drawing this conclusion the Geological Survey was echoing the conclusions of Le Baron, who had proposed t ra in ing works at major bends between Steveston and New Westminster. By 1949 DPW had spent $7 m i l l i on in t ra in ing works in the main arm, and a further $8 m i l l i on on dredging. There were now 64,000 feet of control works (see f igure ) below New Westminster; dredging had re -moved 32 m i l l i o n cubic yards of material from the channel. In the absence of good hydrographic and sediment data for the overal l system, there were many cost ly fa i lu res in early channel improvements. Struc-tures designed to solve local problems had adverse consequences elsew where; frequently works had to be r ebu i l t , and addit ional works imple-mented to compensate for negative e f fec t s . (Limited funding also con-strained the Department in bui ld ing adequate structures). A DPW engin-eer stated in 1968, "P r io r to the 1950's, the design of these works was based on local knowledge, past experience, and in some cases, engin-eering i n t u i t i o n . " (Proceedings of the Seminar on A l l u v i a l Problems in River Engineering, 1968, p. 66) Despite these d i f f i c u l t i e s , DPW had managed to provide adequate draft to meet shipping requirements through most of the NW harbour. The major problem area that remained was at t r i f u r c a t i o n , where the r i ve r divided into the main arm, north arm, and Annacis Channel. Sapperton 7 3 Dyke (see f igure 3), constructed in 1935, was intended to divide r i ve r flow equally between Port Mann and Sapperton Channels. How-ever, in 1940 i t was necessary to undertake dredging in the downstream end of Port Mann Channel. In 1944 the resident engineer requested an hydraulic model study of the area to determine the ef fects of Sapperton Dyke and to study the possible results of addit ional proposed dykes in City Bank. This request led to the construction of a series of physical models of the Fraser that have guided the design and implementation of r i v e r control works to the present day. In 1946, a f ter a severe freshet had resulted in undesirable shoaling, National Research Council inaugurated three years of hydrographic model studies in Ottawa on the area between NW railway Bridge and Sapperton Dyke. As a resu l t of these tes t s , two addit ional wing dams were bu i l t in 1951, el iminating the need for dredg-ing at the downstream end of Pt. Mann Channel. In 1949, NRC b u i l t a hydraulic model of the Fraser River on the UBC campus. The model had an erodible bed from the mouth to Port Mann and a f ixed bed upstream to Sumas. The major controls were t ide l eve l s , r i ve r discharge and sediment i n jec t i on . As the engineer responsible for the model project stated, "The improvement of the t i d a l reaches of an a l l u v i a l r i ve r by t ra in ing structures to sa t i s f y the needs of shipping, has as i t s goal the development of a navigation channel of adequate width, depth and alignment, which can be maintained with a 74 minimum of dredging." (Fraser River Model Project Tech. Rept. 5, 1960, p. 5) In 1953 DPW took over operation of the model. That year, the model was employed to solve the remaining problems in the t r i f u r c a t i on area, including the westward movement of the Ann iev i l le Channel fol lowing the construction of the two wing dams below Sapperton Dyke. A major concern at the time was the prospect of addit ional shoal-ing near the FRHC Grain Elevator. DPW was also anxious to reduce i t s dredging costs in the NW area, where one th i rd of the annual mainten-ance dredging on the main arm took place. Dredge spoi l s i tes were be-coming scarce, and addit ional dredging to achieve the 32 foot operating drafts demanded by shipping interests would have accel lerated the i r loss. Channel maintenance expenditures, now up to $500,000 in the area, would also have d r a s t i c a l l y increased. Thus, in 1953 tests began on the t r i f u r ca t i on works, the most ambit i -ous r i v e r control works constructed with the aid of the UBC model. The complex problems required nine years of study and over 200 indiv idual tests . Tenders on Phase 1 were received in 1962 and Phase 3 was com-pleted in 1969. These works proved successful in putting an end to a l l maintenance dredging in Ann iev i l le Channel. The UBC model was removed in 1961 to permit the construction of a park-ing l o t . Over i t s l i f e 13 projects with a construction cost of $26 m i l l i on were tested on i t . Summing up i t s a c t i v i t i e s , the managing en-75 gineer stated, "The model was employed as an aid to the functional de-sign of r i v e r t ra in ing structures to minimize the dredging maintenance in the navigation channels of the Fraser River Estuary. It was also employed to test proposed plans for the overal l improvement of the es-tuary for deep-sea navigation, as an aid to i t s economic development. Thus industry and commerce would be attracted to the estuary and would benefit from a properly control led and maintained waterway." (FRM 235, 1961, p. 1) A 30 foot draft in the main arm was achieved by 1966, through a combina-tion of t ra in ing and dredging. However, the prospect of deeper draft requirements led to further improvements and model studies. These are described in the next chapter. 4. Fisheries management and port development. Federal F i sher ies, under i t s various names, has had broad const i tut ional authority over f i sher ies on the Fraser since Confederation. Commercial catch l imi tat ions on the Fraser were i n s t i tu ted in 1882. The 1913 He l l ' s Gate s l i de caused a sudden decline in escapement and led to many a t -tempts to remove the obstruction unt i l the construction of fishways in 1941. H i s t o r i c a l l y , the major management concern has been the c o n f l i c t between the commercial fisherman's desire for large catches and the b i o l o g i s t ' s concern for large escapements. (Hi 1 born and Peterman, 1976) 76 Since the 19501s mathematical stock recruitment models have been used to determine adequate escapement. However, strong lobbying by com-mercial fishermen, and the increasing strength of other interests such as the native food f i shery and the recreational f i shery , have made i t d i f f i c u l t to base catch l im i t s purely on b io log ica l parameters. It i s hard to escape the conclusion that "There can be l i t t l e doubt that much of the past concern for salmon has been due largely to the s i g n i -ficance of the f i sh ing industry, espec ia l ly the salmon f i sh ing industry, and not to any great desire to protect our natural environment." (Scott and Schouwenburg, 1976, p. 122) Nevertheless, the Fisheries Act (1932 and amendments) includes p rov i -sion for protection of f i sh from po l lut ion (section 33), dams (section 20) and water diversion (section 28). In the early 1950's, concern about the effects of hydroelectr ic projects led to the creation of the Fish Culture Branch, l a te r the Resource Development Branch, with an en-gineering and b io log ica l capab i l i t y to evaluate ef fects on the f i shery. In the early 1960's the Branch's a c t i v i t i e s were expanded to deal with major po l lut ion threats associated with the developing pulp and paper and mining industr ies in B.C. At th i s time authority to control po l -lu t ion under the Fisheries Act was re s t r i c ted (section 33) to post hoc prosecutions for f i s h k i l l s . Po l lut ion control s t a f f grew to approx-imately 25 professional and technical s t a f f in the Pac i f i c Region by the time the Department of Fisheries and Forestry was incorporated into the Department of Environment in 1972. The nucleus of the new 77 Environmental Protection Service s t a f f in the Pac i f i c Region came from the Po l lut ion Control Section of the old Resource Development Branch. With the creation of the new Department, Department of Environment (DOE) a number of processes were established whereby DOE became more c losely involved with channel maintenance and port development in the Fraser. The major changes in the Department's interact ion with DPW and FRHC since 1972 involve the dredge monitoring program, the EARP, introduced in 1973, the regulations under the Ocean Dumping Control Act (1975), and the Amend- ments to the Fisheries Act (1977). These interactions are discussed below. Pr io r to these innovations, the major interests of Fisheries on the Fraser had been the control of logging operations under the Logging Order, and the removal of gravel under the Gravel Removal Order (both under section 34 of the Fisheries Ac t ) , the control of po l lut ion under section 33 of the Fisheries Act, the regulation of water intakes under section 28 of the Act and regulation of hydro projects under section 20. The major logging concerns were in t r ibuta r ie s of the Fraser, where log dr iv ing could in ter fere with spawning. S im i l a r l y , the major concern about gravel removal was in the upper reaches of the Fraser Val ley, and in t r i b u t a r i e s , rather than in the lower main arm. Control of po l lut ion and water intakes affected indust r ia l a c t i v i t i e s in the main arm, but involved no d i rect confrontation with shipping operations. Since 1972, with the new Departmental p o l i c i e s , in terac-tions with deep sea shipping have become more frequent and complicated. 78 Fisheries has only recently become involved in sc rut in i z ing the dredg-ing program in the Fraser. The Fisheries Act c lea r l y prohibits the k i l l i n g of salmon f r y , parr and smolt less than three pounds in weight (section 12), water intakes without f i sh guards (section 28(1)), the destruction of eggs or f ry on the spawning grounds (section 30), or the dumping of "deleterious substances" in waters frequented by f i s h (section 33). However, as these prohibit ions require post hoc proof of contravention, the re lat ionship between dredging and the Fisheries  Act was not apparent unt i l Fisheries Off icers discovered chum salmon fry in a dredge spoil operation on the Fraser at Mission, in 1971. Following these observations, a program of dredge monitoring was i n -s t i tu ted and in 1975 the Fraser River Dredging Guide was issued. It prohibited suction and hopper dredging during f ry migration, s tat ing that, "The aim of re s t r i c t i on s i s to confine suction dredge operation during the c r i t i c a l f ry migration periods." (generally March 15-June 1) (Fraser River Dredging Guide, 1975) These re s t r i c t i on s were rejected by PWC s t a f f , who c i ted the i r author-i t y under the Pub! i c Works Act. The resu l t was a negotiated resolut ion under which PWC agreed to undertake only "emergency" dredging during f ry migration. If " s i g n i f i c an t " numbers of f ry were found in the dredge s p o i l , dredging would be halted. An interdepartmental committee was also established to review the annual maintenance dredging pro-gram. 79 In 1975 the Ocean Dumping Control Act was enacted. I t was aimed at the regulation of dumping of hazardous substances at sea. The regulations to the Act require appl icat ion for a permit to dump at sea. Public Works Canada accepted the l e g i s l a t i o n ' s authority for hopper dredge dumping o f f Sandheads, but disputed i t s appl icat ion in the Fraser. A com-promise was reached whereby PWC dumping in the Fraser i s scrut in ized by EPS, but permits are not required. The dredge monitoring program also brought Fisheries and Environment Canada into c o n f l i c t with FRHC. The Commission i s responsible for administering pr ivate dredging in the Fraser and receives revenue from sale of dredge s p o i l . When the dredging regulations were f i r s t implemented, FRHC took the stance that Fisheries should prosecute under the Fisheries Act i f pr ivate dredging was found to be k i l l i n g f ry . However, a f ter PWC agreed to cooperate with F i sher ies , FRHC agreed to proh ib i t pr ivate suction dredging during peak f ry migra-t ion . In the 1970's Fisheries began to develop a concern for f i s h habitat which resulted in scrutiny of dredge spoil s i te s . Since 1973 a l l dredge spoi l proposals from PWC have been referred to FEC. Acceptable dredge spoi l s i tes have become increasingly scarce in the r i v e r , pa r t i cu l a r l y near the mouth of the main arm. 80 5. Summary of key h i s t o r i ca l factors. The e a r l i e r sections of th is chapter have shown that deep sea port development in the Fraser has been a complex h i s to r i ca l process. Some of the major events which led to the t ra in ing works proposal are summarized in Table V below. Table V Antecedents to the Training Works Proposal Date Event 1909 Federal maintenance dredging started 1911 Steveston North Jetty started 1913 Fraser River Harbour Commission established 1926 Fraser grain elevator b u i l t 1944 Resident Engineer proposed hydraulic studies at t r i f u r ca t i on 1958 FRHC report proposed t ra in ing works at t r i f u r ca t i on 1969 Tr i fu rcat ion completed 1969 FRHC obtained south Richmond s i t e 1971 Fraser-Surrey docks completed 1971 Fisheries commences dredge monitoring 1974 Fraser River Dredging Guide issued 1975 New Fraser River model completed Signif icance Federal commitment to pro-viding draft F i r s t comprehensive t r a i n -ing program Permanent agency support-ing port development esta-b l i shed; separate adminis-t ra t ion from Vancouver i n s t i t u t i ona l ized F i r s t FRHC deep sea port f a c i l i t y ; s i t i n g helped en-courage model studies at t r i f u r ca t i on to overcome shoaling problem Led to development of phy-s i ca l models Encouraged construction of t r i f u r ca t i on works started in 1961 Success in reducing dredging encouraged further t ra in ing programs Obtained for future deep sea port development Bu i l t to accommodate deep sea vessels with drafts up to 40 f t . Led to re s t r i c t i on s on dredging and spo i l ing Restr icted dredging and spo i l ing Permitted hydraulic studies and design of comprehensive t ra in ing program 81 The next chapter picks up some of these h i s to r i ca l threads and relates them to the conceptualization and planning of the t ra in ing works scheme. 82 Chapter V The Training Works Decision Process Introduction The purpose of th is chapter is to describe the a c t i v i t i e s and interac-tions amongst interests in developing the t ra in ing works proposal. F i r s t , the formal "ports provision system", that i s , the major s tatu-tory and non-statutory linkages amongst agencies promoting and in f luenc-ing port development in the Fraser estuarine area, i s described. Next the assessment framework is out l ined. This includes an out l ine of the three stages in the planning process and an explanation of the s ix decision factors considered. F i na l l y , the detai led a c t i v i t i e s and i n -teractions amongst interests are described, including the concern for the decision factors. The Formal Ports Provision System At the heart of the process is the FRHC, which has the general power, under the Harbour Commission Act 1964-65, to regulate navigation and harbour use including the construction of channels and port f a c i l i t i e s , and to regulate and control the use and development of a l l land, bu i l d -ings and other property within the l im i t s of the harbour, and a l l docks, wharfs, and equipment used in connection with i t . The Commission is composed of 3 members appointed by the Federal Cabinet and 2 members appointed j o i n t l y by the munic ipal i t ies adjacent to the harbour. The Commission reports to the Minister of Transport as does the North Fraser Harbour Commission, which administers the north arm of the Fraser. The j u r i s d i c t i o n of FRHC extends from the mouth of the main arm to Kanaka 83 Creek, jus t downstream of McMillan Island in Langley, and includes the P i t t River to P i t t Lake. The Federal Government has t i t l e to the bed of the Fraser between Ti lbury Island and Kanaka Creek and to the bed of the P i t t , but that portion of the harbour downstream of Ti lbury Island is leased from the Province. The lease is administered by the Lands Branch of the Ministry of the Environment. The major interact ions of the ports provision system can thus be sum-marized as fo l lows: 1. FRHC reports.to the Minister of Transport. 2. The Port of Vancouver reports to the National Harbours Board, which reports to the Minister of Transport. 3. FRHC leases the lower main arm of the Fraser from the Province, through the Land Management Branch. 4. The Pac i f i c Pi lotage Authority determines the deep sea vessel operating practices permitted in the r i v e r ; the Authority re-ports to the Minister of Transport. 5. The municipal representatives on the FRHC provide a l i nk with local governments. 6. Publ ic Works Canada is responsible for maintaining the navigable draft in the r i ve r re l y ing , in large measure on the advice of FRHC to determine adequate draf t . 7. A regional dredging committee, representing PWC, Transport Canada, and Fisheries and Environment Canada reviews annual dredging programs. Figure 4 The Fraser Ports Provision System TRANSPORT CANADA National Harbours Board Port of Vancouver FEDERAL CABINET PROVINCIAL CABINET 1 FISHERIES AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA PUBLIC WORKS CANADA i i •EARP-• Regional Dredging Committee-Pac i f i c Pilotage Authority North Fraser Harbour Commission Fraser River Harbour Commission - industr ia l and transportation interests MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY OF MUNICIPAL AFFAIRS Land Management Branch j i CO Greater Vancouver Regiona D i s t r i c t -municipal i t i e s 85 8. FEC reviews PWC dredging and spoi l programs through a re fer ra l process established under EARP. 9. EARP also allows for the establishment of a formal environmental impact assessment process for major projects. 10. Structures proposed within a navigable channel are subject to approval by Transport Canada under the Navigable Waters Protec- t ion Act. . 11. Major projects in harbours are reviewed by an interdepartmental commi t tee. Where relevant, these interact ions are discussed in the fol lowing sections. The Assessment Framework  Stages in the planning process The planning process for the t ra in ing works proposal can be divided into four stages: conceptualization of the problem, derivation of a l te rnat i ves , evaluation of a l te rnat ives , and the decision stage. The f i r s t three stages have been completed while the f i na l stage is yet to come. This d iv i s ion of the process i s , of course, ent i re l y a rb i t ra ry , and the stages overlap to some extent. It should also be noted that an environmental impact assessment and a "regional ports economic study" are currently underway and w i l l provide further information on the proposal, but for reasons discussed in the next chapter, are not expected to e l i c i t f u r -ther a l ternat ives . 86 Conceptualization of the problem (to 1974). The f i r s t stage in the planning process involves the i den t i f i c a t i on of the "shape" of a planning problem, pr io r to the development of a l terna-t ives for i t s reso lut ion. For the purposes of this study this stage can be i den t i f i ed as encompassing that period up to 1974, when FRHC asked PWC to investigate the f e a s i b i l i t y of developing the Fraser navigation channel to 40 foot draft . By establ ishing the problem as one of inade-quate draft in the Fraser, FRHC appears to have established the basis for the derivation of a lternat ives which followed. Derivation of a lternat ives (1974-July 1975) This second phase involves the generation of a l ternat ive solutions to the problem as conceptualized. In the case of the t ra in ing works pro-posal i t can be traced to the period from 1974, when PWC received the request from FRHC, to July 1975, when economic impact and environmental impact studies for a t ra in ing scheme were proposed. This date is some-what of a compromise between 1974, when hydraulic studies began, and August 1975, when the economic impact and i n i t i a l environmental evalua-t ion contracts were awarded. In the inter im, in-house navigation, plann-ing, and hydraulic studies began within PWC. Evaluation of alternatives- (July 1975-1979) During th i s period PWC carr ied out detai led investigations of engineer-ing solutions to the draft problem in the Fraser. In Ju ly , 1976, PWC 87 issued a report supporting a comprehensive engineering scheme as the so lu-t ion to the draft problem. In March, 1978, an environmental impact as-sessment for the project was i n i t i a t e d . In March, 1979, a "regional ports economic study" was contracted. Unt i l these studies are complete this phase cannot be considered complete, although the terms of reference for these studies are such that they are unl ike ly to generate alternates to the proposal. (They may, however, lead to environmental mit igat ion through design options, or a decision to postpone the project, due to incomplete economic j u s t i f i c a t i o n ) . The decision stage This stage in the process is beyond the scope of this thesis as i t has not been reached. It w i l l fol low a recommendation by the Minister of Environment (Federal) in response to the environmental impact assess-ment. I f he rejects the project, the Minister of Public Works may s t i l l decide that i t should go ahead, in which case the Minister of Environ-ment would have recourse to Cabinet. Considerations which enter into the decision A number of factors may be of concern to affected parties in the decision process. Six of these are discussed below. a. Technical factors. The basic question here is simply: w i l l the proposal work? I f the pro-ject f a i l s to achieve i t s object of providing an 80% scour rate and en-88 suring deeper and more r e l i ab l e draft as estimated in Table I I, then considerable e f fo r t and expenditure w i l l have been wasted. S im i l a r l y , i f the works are destroyed by severe freshets, they w i l l be judged a f a i l u r e . These items would be of interest to those who would benefit from the improvements as well as those who pay for them. b. Environmental factors. The question of what the environmental effects might be is obviously im-portant in view of the scale of the proposal and i t s potential biophy-s i ca l impacts as outl ined in Appendix I. These effects would be of con-cern both to those who value or use other estuarine resources and to those who are e t h i c a l l y concerned about the retention of resource pro-duct iv i ty and resource use opportunities for future generations. c. Opportunity costs. The opportunity costs from the proposal are important considerations in determining the d i s t r i bu t i on of i t s costs. It i s thus necessary not only to i dent i f y the nature of the opportunity costs, but also to iden-t i f y who bears them. This w i l l enable affected interests to determine the i r preferences for a l ternat ives . d. Direct costs and benefits. Here the question i s whether the estimates of capita l and operating costs and of economic benefits are r e l i a b l e . I f costs are underesti-89 mated, other a lternat ives may turn out to be more desirable. On the other hand, i f benefits are overestimated, the costs may be excessive in terms of the benefits gained. e. Regional considerations. This factor concerns the question of whether alternate conceptualiza-tions of the ports problem, and alternate solutions to i t within the region are more s oc i a l l y optimal. If alternate deep sea port s i tes ex i s t in the region, i t would be necessary to ident i f y them and com-pare the f e a s i b i l i t y for the i r development or expansion with the Fraser, using s im i la r methods of analys is. Such an analysis would include environmental and opportunity costs, as well as economic fac -tors , to provide the necessary evaluative information for affected interests to make informed choices. f. National considerations. A basic question from the national perspective i s : what are the bene-f i t s and costs of the next best a l ternat ive to the t ra in ing works pro-posal? This raises the question of whether the project is needed at a l l , and s p e c i f i c a l l y , whether the costs of not improving the d ra f t , as generated by FRHC, are r e l i a b l e . (FRHC has indicated that without the improvements the port w i l l deteriorate to the extent that present deep sea f a c i l i t i e s must be phased out.) 90 A c t i v i t i e s and Processes This section describes f i r s t the involvement of affected interests in the planning process. Then concerns raised for the decision factors are i d en t i f i e d . Conceptualization of the problem (to 1974) 1. Nature of involvement. As indicated in the previous chapter, the t ra in ing works proposal was a resu l t of a long h i s to r i ca l process. In the late 1960's and early 1970's FRHC took steps to provide for future deep sea port development in the r i ve r . In 1968, 48 acres of land adjacent to the grain eleva-tor s i t e on the Surrey-Delta border were acquired, and with the removal of the old structure, a modern general cargo f a c i l i t y was constructed. (The Department of Transport had previously forgiven the remaining debt on the e levator) . In 1969, in a land swap between the Department of Transport and the municipal ity of Richmond, the Commission acquired 240 acres of waterfront land in south Richmond. Since then addit ional acquis i t ions have resulted in a s i t e of 655 acres. Three years l a t e r , FRHC obtained approval from the Minister of Transport to borrow $10.5 m i l l i on for construction of a container f a c i l i t y adja-cent to i t s general cargo docks at Fraser-Surrey. The berths for the new f a c i l i t y , which was completed in 1974, were b u i l t to accommodate ships with 40 feet of d ra f t , in ant ic ipat ion of a deeper navigation channel. 91 In 1972, FRHC contracted the preparation of a plan for the harbour. Discussions were held with local munic ipa l i t ies and 7 of nine approved of i t . One, Richmond, gave conditional approval, and Delta rejected i t , asking that an environmental baseline inventory of the region be completed f i r s t (see section i i b. below) The Study (Fraser River Development Study, 1972) did not mention the t ra in ing works as a requirement for deep sea port development, although i t recognized the need for deeper draft i f container f a c i l i t i e s were to be considered. " I t may be then that the Fraser.River can o f fe r an appropriate s i t e , although channel improvements would be required." (Pearson, 1972, p. 15) I t also pro-posed c luster ing port development in the lower main arm, and staging i t , rather than allowing i t to be strung out along the waterfront. "Focuss-ing such development w i l l also make essential channel deepening less co s t l y . " ( I b id . , p. 20) There were no discussions with other public interest groups between the completion of the plan and i t s adoption by the Commission. By 1966, Public Works Canada was able to achieve the 30 foot operating draft with t i da l aid which had been requested by FRHC in 1959. (FRHC, 1959) However, the costs of dredging, and the prospect of deeper draft requirements to meet the needs of deep sea shipping, led the Department to consider the f e a s i b i l i t y of constructing a new model. The proposal did not, however, receive Departmental approval, and in 1971 a private f i rm, Western Canada Hydraulics (WCHL), commenced construction of a new physical model in Coquitlam. 92 This project was given moral support by PWC and FRHC. Although no f i n -ancial assistance was given toward i t s construction, i t was c lear that PWC would require addit ional model studies i f deeper draft in the Fraser was ant ic ipated. The same year, in 1971, FRHC requested hydraulic model studies in the St. Mungo-Tilbury area. PWC has described th i s proposal, which was requested in response to the success of the t ra in ing works at t r i f u r ca t i on and in Annacis Channel, as "the next log ica l step in a plan to reduce.the annual dredging e f f o r t and the associated seasonal period of reduction in service to shipping." ( I s f e ld , 1978) Over the next two years studies were carr ied out.by Western Canada Hydraulics, i n i t i a l l y using ana lyt ica l models, and subsequently u t i l i z i n g the com-pany's new Fraser River Model for physical studies. With the near-com-plet ion of the model in 1974, FRHC made i t s request for a model study of the main arm, with a view toward developing up to a maximum of 40 feet of draft on the lower Fraser from Sandheads to t r i f u r c a t i o n . (Ibid.) This section has shown that involvement in the conceptualization of the problem was largely l im i ted to FRHC and PWC. FRHC took an act ive role in port development. PWC responded to pressure for increased draft with addit ional model studies, seeking a technical solut ion to draft l i m i t a -tions . 2. Concern for decision factors, a. Technical factors. Concern for technical factors was generally confined to Public Works Canada and i t s consultant engineers at th i s stage. Optimism that hy-93 draul ic model studies could resu l t in a successful program of t ra in ing works was based on the sat i s factory results of previous structures de-signed with the aid of the Fraser River Model at U.B.C. Undoubtedly the foremost of these was the t r i f u r ca t i on project. The Tr i furcat ion Project demonstrates that major r i ve r improve-ments can be achieved through the use of r i v e r t ra in ing s t ruc-tures. The results are proof that, provided due consideration has been given to a l l physical and operational factors , and provided hydraulic model studies are u t i l i z e d as a basis for design, a given reach can be improved with few or no adverse e f fec t s . (Wallace, 1973) b. Environmental factors. As indicated in sections c. and e., the primary concerns of other users of the estuary pr io r to 1974 related to the loss of waterfront land to indus t r i a l -por t development in general, and to the concern for po l l u -t i on , rather than to the effects of dredging and spo i l ing on the estu-arine environment, or to the ef fects of r i ve r t ra in ing . As noted in the previous chapter, the dredge monitoring program did not s ta r t unt i l 1974. Fisheries studies on the estuarine ecosystem of the Fraser did not receive serious Departmental attention unt i l 1973, as described below. One spec i f i c reference to potential environmental ef fects of a t ra in ing scheme was made by a public interest group in 1972. On November 9, 1972, the B.C. Environmental Council wrote to Premier Barrett and Prime Minister Trudeau with a comprehensive b r ie f on the Fraser River. One spec i f i c complaint was that, 94 "No studies have been undertaken to ascertain what environmental and socia l impact the dredging, channelization and i n d u s t r i a l i -zation of the Lower Fraser would have; nevertheless, the Department of Transport has given permission to the Fraser River Harbour Com-mission to borrow more than $10 m i l l i on to underwrite the costs of the f i r s t phase of the planned deep sea port - - 1600 feet of container port with more than one hundred acres of blacktopped back-up land in the Surrey area." In the early 1970's Fisheries began to respond to a number of proposed developments in west coast estuaries. Fisheries studies in Oregon, and impact assessments at Squamish (1972), Nanaimo (1973), and Prince Rupert (1973-74) began to show the potential s ign i f icance of estuarine habitat to salmonids. (Reimers, P.E. and R.E. L o e f e l l , 1967) (Goodman, D. and P.R. Vroom, 1972)(Higgins R. and W.J. Schouwenburg, 1973) In 1973, fol lowing announcement that the Department of Transport intended to expropriate homes on Sea Island for a i rpor t expansion, an intergov-ernmental committee known as the A i rport Planning Committee (APC) was established. The Department of Environment (Federal) was an or ig ina l member of th is committee, the terms of reference of which included the requirement to, "advise on studies needed to ensure that the proposed development of Vancouver International A i rport is compatible with the planning of the various levels of government and the concerns of the pub-l i c in the communities involved." (Ecological Subcommittee, 1975, p. 1) 95 Several of the proposed runway alignments for VIA expansion required f i l l i n g of portions of the Sturgeon Bank foreshore. Fisheries gathered data on f i s h u t i l i z a t i o n of Sturgeon Bank and on the extent of h i s t o r i -cal habitat loss in the Fraser Estuary. (Fisheries and Marine Service, 1975) Pr ior to the formation of the Department, much of the Federal f i sher ies research e f f o r t was conducted within research i n s t i tu te s under the gener-al d i rect ion of the Fisheries Research Board (composed of distinguished s c i en t i s t s ) . Further research was undertaken by the international com-missions. Within the Department i t s e l f , the focus, of environmental re-search ( in the Resource Development Branch) was on contraventions to the Fisheries Act. Thus in the Pac i f i c Region there were three sets of actors: 1. Fisheries.management, Vancouver 2. Researchers at the Pac i f i c B io log ica l Stat ion, Nanaimo 3. International Pac i f i c Salmon Commission Fisheries management, being, responsible for the enforcement of the pro-visions of the Fisheries Act, tended to operate in a reactive mode, in response to development threats. Operational objectives were formulated by negotiations between Fisheries s t a f f , development in teres t s , and/or other regulatory agencies. Examples of such negotiations included b io-log ica l treatment of pulpmill e f f luent , adjudication of pest ic ide ap-96 p l i c a t i on s , negotiation of e f f luent rec i rcu la t ion systems for the mining industry, and review of logging operations along salmon-bear-ing streams. Such research as was undertaken tended to be related to po l l u t i on , logging operations, and hydro-electr ic projects. Within the research in s t i tu tes ( Pac i f i c B io log ica l S tat ion, and l a t e r , Pac i f i c Environment Inst i tute) research objectives were to a much greater extent i n te rna l l y derived. Individual research proposals were subject to peer review, and the overal l research programs were ult imately re-viewed by FRB. In the early 1970 1s, "estuar ies, which had been former-ly treated as a no-man's land between the r ivers and the sea, began re-ceiving the attention they deserved. But the common complaint of f i s h -eries personnel became that they couldn ' t be everywhere at once. In-creases in s t a f f only led to the uncovering of more reasons for con-cern. (Larkin, 1979) Because researchers couldn ' t be everywhere at once, and because p r i o r i -t ies were largely i n te rna l l y derived, research objectives tended to re-f l e c t the interests and capab i l i t i e s of indiv idual research groups. Thus, while research on the Fraser was undertaken in the 1960's, the emphasis was on the S t r a i t of Georgia and the Fraser plume, rather than on the estuarine wetlands. There were several reasons for t h i s . F i r s t , researchers in Nanaimo tended to be oceanographers. Second, being located somewhat d istant from the Fraser, PBS s t a f f tended to concen-97 trate i t s research on other areas. Third, the terms of reference for IPSC included the regulation of f i sh ing with addit ional relevant re-search e f fo r t s . This was interpreted by the Department to mean that Departmental s t a f f were not to do research on sockeye and pink salmon. The Commission., in turn, assumed that sockeye and pinks did not use the estuary, so no research was done on i t . (Larkin, pers. comm.) With the creation of the Department of the Environment in 1971, th is s i tuat ion changed quite quickly. In 1972-73 f i sher ies research i n s t i -tutes were incorporated into the new Fisheries and Marine Service. As one observer noted, th i s change " re f lected a pol icy prescr ipt ion for making science more relevant. . . . It has been assumed that close or -ganizational t ie s between s c i e n t i f i c and operational groups w i l l f a c i l -i t a te improvements in both science and f i sher ies management." (Fletcher, 1979, p. 1054) These organizational changes were made in response to the development of a government science pol icy in 1972, with the objec-t ive of achieving greater research "relevance" in federal agencies. In 1973 the Ministry of State for Science and Technology developed the Make-or-Buy Guidelines, the aim of which was to lower the proportion of research and development performed in government departments and to i n -crease i t in the indust r ia l sector. The guidelines were subsequently applied by Treasury Board in i t s funding of Departmental research pro-grams, including subventions. The major effects of th is po l icy were f e l t in the Pac i f i c Region a f te r 1974 and are therefore discussed in subsequent stages in the planning process. 98 c. Opportunity costs. In the early 1970's a number of concerns were raised about the impact of indus t r ia l and port development in the Fraser River estuary on other resource uses. The Provincial Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch and the Canadian W i l d l i f e Service j o i n t l y published A Commitment to the Future in March 1972, warning that "urban development is rapidly reducing the quantity and qual i ty of wetland for w i l d l i f e and that c r i t i c a l l y important habi-tat must be preserved from incompatible uses i f the aquatic b i rd re-sources of the lower Fraser Valley are to survive." (Halladay, E.R., and R.D. Harr i s , 1972) Later in the year, the B.C. Environmental Coun-c i l c r i t i c i z e d FRHC's plans for port development, charging that, "The Commission plans tota l i ndu s t r i a l i z a t i on of a l l of the r i ve r within i t s j u r i s d i c t i o n , channel izat ion, f i l l i n g of l i t t o r a l channels and dredging for deep-water port. To date there has been no public hear-ing concerning th i s plan, or even a meeting to which representatives from a l l the affected munic ipa l i t ies have been i n v i t e d . " ( l e t t e r to Barrett and Trudeau) They went on to complain that port development would endanger small c ra f t movements in the r i v e r , that channelization would increase the flood hazard, and that the Pearson Plan allowed for only a " f i s t f u l " of recreation land on the waterfront. A year l a t e r , Mayor P h i l l i p s of Vancouver expressed the view that FRHC should be changed to r e f l e c t interest in developing other a c t i v i t i e s than port development along the Fraser. He charged that FRHC was a 99 "one purpose" organization with an aim toward developing industry along the r i ve r . (Vancouver Sun, November 17, 1973) d. Direct benefits and costs. As no spec i f i c proposal had been generated at th i s stage, no concerns were expressed about the d i rect costs of channel improvements. However, FRHC and PWC, the primary actors in the process at the conceptualization stage, were of the opinion that channel improvements would reduce the costs of channel maintenance and encourage addit ional shipping. The primary concern of PWC at th i s time was to f ind a " leas t cost" means of meeting i t s r e spon s i b i l i t i e s . The Department had a large number of other marine re spon s i b i l i t i e s in the Pac i f i c Region, including meeting the navigation requirements of the f i sh ing industry, coastal shipping, and shallow draft shipping. ( I s fe ld , pers. comm.) FRHC, for i t s part, considered the benefits of deeper draft to be se l f evident, as they were convinced that with only two railheads to the P a c i f i c , and with the Port of Vancouver being " f u l l " , business must come to the Fraser. (McLaren, pers. comm.) e. Regional considerations. In the late 19601s and early 1970's, i n i t i a t i v e s were started by the Department of Transport, the Department of Environment, and by local interests to achieve a regional perspective on development in the Fraser River Estuary. The Department of Transport had sought a co-100 ordinated approach to port development in the lower mainland since the early 1960's. There were two problems: f i r s t , there was local pressure in Vancouver to get more local autonomy from the National Harbours Board, which control led the administration of the Port of Vancouver. Second, there was concern within the Department that FRHC (or the New West-minster Harbour Commission, as i t was then known) was competing exces-s ive ly with Vancouver, espec ia l ly because of the parochial att i tude of the City of New Westminster. An agreement was arranged whereby the City would give up-its monopoly on local appointments to the Commission in return for the Department paying o f f the Commission's debt on the grain elevator. However, New Westminster could not be convinced to accept a s ingle administration of ports in the region, and the then Minister of Transport (Howard Green) decided to wait for local opposi-t ion to die down. (pers. comm. Stead, former ADM Transport) In 1966, the Min ister of Transport (Mr. P i c ke r s g i l l ) advocated f u l l co-ordination of development plans for a l l lower mainland harbours as " v i t a l to the economic growth and well-being of the country." (Sun, May 12, 1966) Shortly afterward the administrative boundaries of NFHC and FRHC were reduced to exclude Sturgeon and Roberts Banks, and the boundaries of the Port of Vancouver were extended to include these areas as well as Boundary Bay. In 1970 Transport Minister Jamieson announced that the NHB was to be dissolved (Province, July 25, 1970). Later in the year he said he was receiving contradictory advice about a regional port authority. "Some are arguing for a s ingle authority for the Lower Main-101 land or even the whole B.C. coast. But others, l i k e the FRHC, are i n -s i s t i ng on autonomy." (Sun, December 12, 1970) The next year, the Minister said that he favoured a s ingle authority but NHB and FRHC strongly protested. He added that he hoped there would be co-operation between the boards so there wouldn't be needless competition and unnecessary du-p l i ca t i on in capita l expenditures. (Province, November 24, 1971) By 1972, the Minister was under heavy pressure from local interests who asserted that up to a th i rd of the cargoes destined for Vancouver were diverted to Seatt le because of inadequate f a c i l i t i e s for containers. (Globe and Ma i l , July 8, 1972) The previous winter, he had before him a number of proposals for container f a c i l i t i e s in the lower mainland, and that "I don't have a d o l l a r ' s worth of business I can j u s t i f y expen-diture of public funds on. But I need advice on how to proceed." (Sun, May 12, 1971) In the Spring of 1972, the Chairman of the FRHC went to Ottawa saying that he had a l e t t e r of intent from a shipping company to load 1000 container capacity ships at a proposed Fraser-Surrey container termin-al . , adding that he expected two s im i la r l e t te r s of intent short ly. The Secretary to the Commission added that he expected a flow of between 15,000 and 20,000 containers through the f a c i l i t y in the f i r s t f u l l year of operation. (Province, June 22, 1974) In September, a month before a federal e l ec t i on , the Federal Government announced the expenditure 102 of $35 m i l l i on for a new container terminal in Vancouver, and approval for FRHC to borrow $10 m i l l i on for a container terminal in the Fraser. The second attempt to develop a regional perspective to development on the estuary was promulgated by loca l and regional governments, environ-mental interest groups, and the Department of the Environment. In Novem-ber, 1972, the B.C. Environmental Council wrote to Premier Barrett and Prime Minister Trudeau urging that "your governments should give urgent consideration to the t o t a l i t y of approved plans for the estuary of the Fraser River. " In A p r i l , 1973, the GVRD urged the Ministry of State for Urban A f fa i r s "to evaluate the environmental assets of the ent i re region and to prepare an environmental assets c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . S imi lar requests for an environmental baseline study of the Fraser River Es-tuary came from Vancouver and Richmond. In May, 1973, the Minister of the Environment, Mr. Davis, announced that the f i r s t p r i o r i t y of the new regional o f f i c e of the Lands Directorate was to undertake an environmental baseline study of the Lower Mainland Region, ( l e t t e r from Davidson to Lash, May 2, 1973) In a l e t t e r to Vancouver in October, the study was referred to as an out l ine environ-mental impact study of the Fraser River Estuary, ( l e t t e r from Davis to L i t t l e , October 4, 1973) At the same time the Minister directed his department to determine what percentage of the estuary was essential for continued product iv i ty of estuarine resources. A deadline of March 31, 1974 was placed on this request (memo from Lacate to McCormack, 18 March, 1974) 103 At a symposium in October, 1973, representatives of DOE Services expressed the opinion that i t was not possible to determine what areas of the es-tuary were b i o l og i ca l l y important. However, i t was agreed that when studies on Roberts Bank, Sturgeon Bank, and north Sturgeon Bank, and an inventory of regional port f a c i l i t i e s were completed, "the Pac i f i c Re-gion should be in a better pos it ion to ident i f y the least sens i t ive areas in the estuary. The Region should at that time also be in a better pos i -t ion to suggest techniques for reclaiming or returning areas to produc-t ion and to suggest design c r i t e r i a that may permit ex i s t ing or new de-velopments to co-exist with other uses." (Memo from Lacate to McCormack, 18 March, 1974) In 1974, the Lands Directorate pursued the objective of an environmental baseline inventory for the Estuary. The f i r s t phase was a gathering of ex i s t ing data. One resu l t of th i s was the publ icat ion of the f i r s t in a series of "status of knowledge" reports on B.C. estuaries. However, the overal l project foundered due to DOE's i n a b i l i t y to interest the Provin-c i a l Environment and Land Use Committee Secretar iat in a j o i n t program of studies. f. National considerations. Concern for the need to develop the Fraser port v i s -a -v i s other deep sea ports was c lea r l y evident in the i n i t i a t i v e s of the Department of Trans-port and the Minister of Transport described in section e. However, be-tween the time that the Fraser-Surrey Container Terminal was approved in 104 1972 (the circumstances of which were described above) and the generation of the t ra in ing works proposal, no evaluation of the role of the Fraser in a west-coast ports context was undertaken. Derivation of a l ternat ives (1974 - July 1975) 1. Nature of involvement. The Federal budgetary cycle requires that departments submit estimates approximately 18 months p r io r to the s tar t of the f i s c a l year in which resources are to be expended. Thus for PWC to begin studies on the t ra in ing works scheme in the Spring of 1975, i t would have been necessary to submit estimates in September, 1973. Major capita l projects in Fed-eral Harbours are subject to review by an interdepartmental (PWC and Department of Transport) s t a f f committee. Although the deta i l s of how this spec i f i c proposal was handled are not ava i lab le , the h i s t o r i c a l practice has been for the committee to consider each proposal from a benefit-cost perspective, excluding environmental e f fects . (Stead, pers. comm.) Following review by this committee, the project was placed in the 5 year estimates for major projects. From avai lable evidence there does not appear to have been any e f f o r t to generate, a l ternat ives for evaluation, other than the t ra in ing works proposal, at th i s stage, by FRHC, PWC, or the Department of Transport. 105 2. Concern for decision factors. a. Technical factors. PWC had carr ied out studies of hydraulics since 1974, including mathe-matical and physical modelling (by Western Canada Hydraul ics), and geo-log ica l research. b. Environmental factors. Under the Environmental Assessment and Review Process (EARP) implemented by Federal Cabinet in 1973, a l l federal projects which may have an ad-verse e f fect on the environment require environmental assessments be-fore irrevocable decisions are made. The preliminary stage involves review of the project by the Regional Screening and Coordinating Com-mittee (comprising representatives from services in the Department of Environment (now the Department of Fisheries and Oceans and the Depart-ment of the Environment). Two of the RSCC's functions are to advise on the need for an I n i t i a l Environmental Evaluation, and to refer the proposal to other DOE agencies and relevant Provincial agencies, through the Environmental Protection Service. In the case of the t ra in ing works proposal, PWC did not seek the advice of the RSCC, and instead chose to go d i r e c t l y to the preparation of an I n i t i a l Environmental Evaluation (IEE). (This i s described in the next stage of the planning process.) Because PWC omitted the f i r s t stage, EPS did not establ ish a re fe r ra l process for the project un t i l a f ter the IEE was received from PWC (in December, 1975). Thus spec i f i c environmental concerns about the project were not raised at th i s stage. 106 c. Opportunity costs. No new concerns were raised at th is stage, beyond the general issues of port/ industr ia l development discussed in the previous stage. d. Direct costs and benefits. On December 16, 1974 Treasury Board authorized PWC to undertake a study of the f e a s i b i l i t y of providing a channel in the Fraser River from i t s mouth to New Westminster to accommodate ships up to 40 feet dra f t . (PWC, 1976) No estimates of benefits or costs had been done at th i s stage, so i t must be assumed that PWC's submission to Treasury Board was based on information prepared by FRHC in 1972, j u s t i f y i n g improvements in the St. Mungo-Tilbury area. e. Regional considerations. In May, 1975, the Ecological Subcommittee to the Airport Planning Com-mittee issued i t s report on the proposed expansion of Vancouver Interna-t ional A i rport . (The Ecological Sub-Committee, 1975). The Subcommittee recommended a moratorium be placed on a l l major development proposals in the Fraser River Estuary/Delta, and that, During this moratorium, and before any further major development i s permitted to take place, a comprehensive pol icy be prepared which would take into account requirements for both the manage-ment and the protection of the Fraser River Estuary/Delta as an ecological unit. (p. VII-2) The Report l i s t e d major development proposals in the estuary, but the t ra in ing works proposal was not mentioned. It must be assumed then that the agencies represented on the Sub-Committee were not aware of the pro-ject at th i s stage. 107 f. National considerations. No concerns about the comparative advantages of the proposal, from a national perspective, appear to have been raised by those interests who participated, in th i s stage of the process. This section has shown that involvement of interests at th is stage was very circumscribed. PWC obtained approval for evaluation of the t r a i n -ing works proposal without consideration of a l ternat ives . Attention thus began to focus on th i s solution to the ports problem, and with the implementation of the EARP, on i t s environmental e f fect s . The plan-ning process was guided by PWC at th i s stage. Concern for the environmen-ta l e f fects of development on the estuary was increasing, but was focussed on other major projects (such as the Vancouver International A i rport expansion proposal). Evaluation of a l ternat ives (July, 1975-1979) 1. Nature of involvement. In the Spring of 1975, PWC began a program of studies on the f e a s i b i l i t y of the t ra in ing works a l te rnat i ve . The chronology of th is program i s shown in Figure 5, and the contents of the various studies, where r e l e -vant, are noted in part i i of th i s section. The new Fraser River Model was opened in 1975. At th i s occasion, the Regional Director-General of PWC sa id , "We look forward to working with the s t a f f of the laboratory over the next 2 years in carrying out the FRASER RIVER ESTUARY STUDY LEGEND Existing training devices EXISTING TRAINING WORKS 1. Steveston North Jetty 2. Steveston South Jetty No. 3. No. 1. Dam No. 3 Dam Steveston South Jetty No. Albion Dyke No. 1 Albion Dyke No. 2 Steveston Breakwater Dyke 3 109 intensive studies for the future improvement of the Fraser 's deep sea shipping channels. . . . PWC feels that the time has come to formulate a longer range plan for the Fraser River deep sea channel, which w i l l accommodate the proposed changes. In formulating this plan we w i l l of course, as in the past, work very c lose ly with the FRHC, the 1 organization d i r e c t l y responsible for the administration of the harbour." The hydrau-l i c model studies, which had begun in 1974, were followed by in-house PWC navigation and planning studies. These studies pr imar i ly involved interact ion with FRHC. Riparian land-owners' development intentions were inferred from land use maps, and from data supplied by FRHC. The only land use approval sought d i r e c t l y , was from the Provincial Land Management Branch, which administers the Provincial lease of the r i ve r bed downstream of Ti lbury Island. However, the Director repl ied that he had no concerns at th is stage. It does not appear that he s o l i c i t e d the advice of other Provincial agencies concerned with the Fraser Es-tuary, (pers. comm. with s t a f f of the Land Management Branch, Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch, Parks Branch). In Ju ly , 1975, an economic impact study was contracted. The l i s t of con-tacts for th i s study includes terminal operators, shipping agents, trans-port regulatory agencies, and other organizations which might benefit from the project. (B.C. Research, 1975) In June, 1975, PWC contracted an I n i t i a l Environmental Evaluation of the proposals. Its terms of reference were to: no 1. Discuss the proposed project with resource management agen-cies and interest groups to ident i f y areas of par t i cu la r s en s i t i v i t y and concern. 2. Use presently avai lable information to ident i fy areas of en-vironmental s en s i t i v i t y and out l ine preliminary impacts. 3. Determine spec i f i c environmental parameters where or ig ina l or addit ional data is required. 4. Prepare guidelines for further studies necessary to the de-velopment of an environmental impact statement (Envirocon, 1976). During th i s study the project was discussed with a number of in teres t s , but only those who had information needed for the completion of the IEE were contacted, (pers. comm., Don Guthrie) Interests contacted included: Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch, GVRD, Canadian W i l d l i f e Service, Parks Branch, B.C. W i l d l i f e Federation, and a representative of com-mercial fishermen. Upon completion of the IEE in November, 1975, i t was sent to Fisheries and Environment Canada for comment. In A p r i l , 1976, s t a f f from PWC and DFE met to discuss what environmental impact assessments might be under-taken by DFE and what studies would have to be undertaken by consul-tants. DFE made i t c lear that under Departmental po l i cy , the "propon-ent must pay" for environmental impact studies. Furthermore, Fisheries had l imited resources to carry out studies on the Fraser within the imposed time period required. A further problem was evident. Fisher-ies s t a f f were concerned that so l i t t l e was known about the Fraser Estuary that studies would have to be undertaken before the terms of I l l reference for a detai led EIS on the t ra in ing works proposal could be drawn up. PWC therefore agreed to fund a program of studies, including both base-l i ne data gathering and spec i f i c studies to assess the possible impacts of the r i ve r t ra in ing works. In the f i r s t category were studies of product iv ity and u t i l i z a t i o n by f i s h of sloughs and backwaters, and a Fraser River Inventory (FRI) which included habitat parameters, s t ruc-tures, land use and ownership, location of development proposals, dredg-ing and spo i l ing s i t e s , and water qua l i ty sampling s i t e s . In the second category were studies of water qua l i ty in poorly flushed areas (which might simulate s ituat ions created by t ra in ing works), and studies of the abundance and d i s t r i bu t i on of food items u t i l i z e d by juveni le salmon in re la t ion to water ve loc i ty and water qua l i ty . While the purpose of these studies was "to undertake some preliminary invest igations re la t ing to the proposed project, pr ior to formulation of guidelines by the RSCC panel" ( l e t t e r from Boyd to Waldichuk), th i s is not what happened. Instead, the project was registered with the Federal EARP Off ice in June, 1976 by PWC, an EARP Panel was formulated, and guidelines for a detai led environmental impact assessment (EIS) were prepared by December. The Fisheries studies, on the other hand, continued for two years. Representation on the EARP Panel included the fol lowing agencies: the Federal Environmental Assessment Review Of f i ce , Public Works Canada, 112 Habitat Protection Divis ion (F i sher ies ) , Environmental Protection Ser-v ice, Inland Waters Directorate, and an observer from the B.C. Ministry of the Environment (subsequently elevated to membership on the Panel). Lack of baseline data required that the terms of reference be quite broad, (pers. comm., Herity) The terms of reference for the EIS were not reviewed by public interests pr io r to the i r issuance in December, 1976. However, the Panel was of the opinion that by making them publ ic, they were i n v i t i n g public response. There has been no public response to date. (Herity, pers. comm.) In March, 1977, PWC formed an Environ-mental Advisory Committee to ass i s t the Project Manager in supervising the consultant 's work. A consultant was appointed for the EIS in March, 1978. In May, 1978, PWC held a public meeting at which PWC and FRHC representatives explained the rat ionale for the project, Western Canada Hydraulics s t a f f explained the hydraulic model studies, and the consultants outl ined some of the i r approaches to the environmental assessment. The consultants held a public workshop in December, 1978, to further explain the i r program of studies. F i na l l y , in February, 1979, PWC con-tracted the preparation of a "port economic study" for the lower main-land. This section has shown that the EARP was the dominant interact ive pro-cess at th i s stage, with the j o i n t PWC-Fisheries environmental program playing an important ro le . These factors are analyzed at length in the next chapter. 113 Concern for decision factors. a. Technical factors. The f i n a l report on hydraulic f e a s i b i l i t y was submitted by WCHL in A p r i l , 1977. At the public information meeting held in June, 1978, most questions dealt with the environmental effects of the project; only two questions concerned i t s technical f e a s i b i l i t y . Dr. Tamburi, from WCHL, expressed considerable confidence in the physical model, stat ing that, "not only could we reproduce the ex i s t ing condit ions, but we could also impose s i gn i f i can t changes on the model, changes that are about the same order of magnitude as those contemplated, and f ind that indeed we did predict the results accurately. " ( t ranscr ipt of publ ic information meeting, May 17, 1978) b. Environmental factors. By the Spring of 1975, the Fisheries and Marine Service had become con-vinced that: 1. The estuary of the Fraser River, pa r t i cu l a r l y the slough, backwater and marsh areas of the lower r i ve r and the i n t e r t i -dal portions of Sturgeon and Roberts Bank serve as a rearing area for juveni le salmon and other f i shes. 2. A s i gn i f i can t portion of the d iet of these f i s h i s comprised of estuarine benthic organisms. 3. The highest biomass of these benthic invertebrates is found in the mid and high i n t e r t i d a l , vegetated, and saltmarsh portions of the estuary. 114 4. 71% of the former saltmarsh habitat of the Fraser River es-tuary has already been al ienated, (minutes of meeting of Nov. 24, 1975 between ELUCS, GVRD, FEC s ta f f ) This led Fisheries to support the argument expressed at the seminar held in 1973, that a l l the remaining wetland habitat should be preserved. But th is att i tude was based on extrapolation of resu lts from studies on Sturgeon Bank and from other estuaries. Thus, as T.G. Northcote noted in 1977, "Much more work is urgently required before enough basic information is avai lable to enable useful predictions to be made on im-pacts of various types of estuarine development on salmon or to permit improvement of th i s habitat, whether or not i t i s degraded. . . . The marked var iat ion evident between estuaries underlines the dangers of extrapolating resu lts between medium sized systems such as the Squamish, Nanaimo or Cowichan r i ve r systems.. Obviously i t would be even more unwise to extend:results from the l a t t e r systems to making decisions about the much larger and d i f fe rent Fraser estuary." ( l e t t e r to Geen, March.21, 1977) PWC's i n i t i a l at t i tude toward environmental assessment of the t ra in ing works proposal was that the necessary studies could be completed in one year. "As the. Department of Public Works is expected to complete the overal l project development as soon as possible, i t i s essential that the time 115 required for environmental assessment should be kept to a minimum." (PWC, May 1976, p. 21) However, when Fisheries s ta f f indicated how l i t -t l e was known about the Fraser ecosystem, PWC demonstrated both a w i l l -ingness to fund studies, and to adapt the project to reduce adverse environmental impacts. But PWC was not convinced that the project would have a serious environmental.impact, because i t " involved only 50% of what i s presently in the r i v e r " , (minutes of PWC-Fisheries meeting, Apr i l 21, 1976). Furthermore, as Fisheries s t a f f had i n d i -cated that a l l marsh habitat was valuable for f i s h , and as the project, l i k e past t ra in ing projects, would l i k e l y lead to creation of addit ional marsh habitat, PWC f e l t i t could lead to environmental enhancement. ( I s fe ld , pers. comm.) PWC funded a second year of Fisheries studies in 1977, but l imited fund-ing forced Fisheries to drop proposed studies of f l o r a and fauna asso-ciated with ex i s t ing t ra in ing wa l l s , habitat u t i l i z a t i o n of Gunderson Slough and Alb ion, and revegetation studies. Studies of Ti lbury and Deas Sloughs, and the Fraser River Inventory continued. Wildfowl studies, carr ied out by the Canadian W i l d l i f e Service, were completed in March, 1977. At the May 17, 1978 public meeting on the t ra in ing works project, a wide range of environmental concerns was raised. These focussed largely on potential impacts on the f i shery. The consultants for the environ-mental impact statement assured the audience that the community's con-cerns would be taken into account in the preparation of the statement. 116 c. Opportunity costs. To a large extent, those interests involved in the decision process have re l i ed on the environmental impact assessment to evaluate oppor-tunity costs from the proposal. d. Direct costs and benefits. In 1978, PWC announced that Treasury Board had required the preparation of a detai led benef it-cost study of the t ra in ing works proposal. In explaining the rat ionale for th is study, PWC s ta f f indicated at the pub-l i c meeting on May 17, 1978, that the terms of reference of B.C. Re-search economic study in 1975 had been too narrow as "the intent was to try to establ i sh the value of the port to the community and the im-portance of draft and increased draft as i t related to the port . " (PWC, 1978, p. 32) The Treasury Board's terms of reference s p e c i f i c a l l y re -quire that " h i s t o r i c a l trends are not acceptable as the sole bases for forecasts. Forecasts w i l l be based on evaluations of market condit ions, competition, new technology, constra ints, etc. I f h i s t o r i c trends are u t i l i z e d the consultant should be prepared to defend the i r use." (Treasury Board, 1978, p. 7) The study does not include an examination of the v a l i d i t y of cost estimates provided by PWC, but does include a s e n s i t i v i t y analysis to determine the effects of d i rect costs exceeding estimates, of t r a f f i c exceeding or f a l l i n g short of estimates, and of commercial ca r r i e r character i s t ic s exceeding estimates. 117 e. Regional considerations. In November, 1975, the Deputy Minister of Environment, responding to a c a l l from the Canadian Environmental Advisory Council for a comprehen-sive pol icy for the estuary, asked the Pac i f i c Region s t a f f to prepare a "resource s en s i t i v i t y map" for the Fraser River Estuary and Delta and to develop an accompanying framework for pol icy formulation. Early in 1976, the Department i n i t i a t e d informal contacts with Provincial agen-c ies , and in February, 1977, a formal federa l -prov inc ia l agreement was signed between the two Ministers of the Environment for the f i r s t phase of a j o i n t study. The f i r s t phase of th is study, e s sent ia l l y a "status of ex i s t ing information" approach, was completed in August, 1978. The Summary Report proposed - the preparation of an estuary man-agement plan, but did not propose a moratorium on development unt i l such a plan was implemented. With respect to port development, i t proposed that port expansion should be l imi ted to areas currently desig-nated for port and indust r ia l development, and that d i rect impacts on wetlands should be managed through spec i f i c design c r i t e r i a . (Fraser River Estuary Study Steering Committee, 1978, p. 77) In the Spring of 1978, PWC announced that a regional ports study would be contracted, in addition to a benefit-cost study of the t ra in ing works proposal. The regional study was requested by Treasury Board. It w i l l comprise a Federal marine terminal plan to a l locate port sup-ply in terms of demand, various natural and i n s t i t u t i ona l constra ints , 118 and in a cos t -e f fect i ve manner. If present supply i s inadequate, a second phase w i l l suggest development of addit ional f a c i l i t i e s . The benefit-cost study of the t ra in ing works proposal i s to be carr ied out regardless of the results of the regional study. Only the t ra in ing works project is to be subject to-formal benefit-cost analys is. A consultant for the regional ports study was contracted in February, 1979. The consultant has indicated that his approach to the benef i t -cost study " i s couched on the assumption that the Department of Public Works proposed improvement plan i s the a l ternat ive to be studied. " (Acres, 1979) The economic consultant to the environmental impact as-sessment of the t ra in ing works proposal has stated that, while the terms of reference for that study require that the EIS state reasons why the project i s proposed for the lower Fraser, he " w i l l not, within the pre-sent contract, independently j u s t i f y on economic terms the development. . . Nevertheless, certa in Guideline requirements should be met by the Port Economic Study a lbe i t in a time-frame most l i k e l y not consistent with the current studies schedule." (Beak, 1978, p. 24) f. National considerations. As indicated in the previous sect ion, the regional ports study i s i n -tended to consider regional port a l locat ion from a federal perspective. The terms of reference for this study include a consideration of other west coast ports, including Seatt le, where these are relevant to the 119 region. If present capacity i s found to be inadequate for regional demand, a l ternat ive solutions w i l l be i den t i f i ed and costed. Thus the evaluation process continued to be guided by PWC at th is stage. Evaluation concentrated on technical factors and on the environmental effects from the t ra in ing works proposal. Other agencies were largely concerned about environmental factors and did not press for evaluation of a l ternat ives . Thus a formal EIS was i n i t i a t e d . F i na l l y , a regional ports study was requested by Treasury Board, but only the t ra in ing works option was to be subjected to formal benefit-cost analys is. A federa l -provincial study on the estuary was funded, but the Steering Committee took the stance that proposals currently subject to EIS 1s should con-tinue to be evaluated under the EARP, without additional evaluation by the Study. Summary This chapter has described the decision process to early 1979. It should be noted that the evaluation stage w i l l continue for some months, and that the decision stage w i l l not be reached unt i l at least 1980. The next chapter evaluates the process in terms of the normative c r i t e r i a outl ined in Chapter II. 120 Chapter VI Appl icat ion of the Theory to the Decision Process This chapter analyzes the decision process, using the theory in Chapter II, and s p e c i f i c a l l y the normative c r i t e r i a of an ideal resource prov i -sion system as the basis for the analysis. Three major sets of factors are considered: the l imi tat ions to the consideration of a l te rnat ives , the l imi tat ions to the generation of evaluative information, and the l imi tat ions to the involvement of elected representatives. F i na l l y , the major conclusions drawn from the analysis are summarized. 1. Limitations to the consideration of a l ternat ives . It i s c lear from the discussion in Chapters IV and V that the t ra in ing works proposal i s the outcome of a long h i s t o r i ca l process that has f a i l ed to e l i c i t a wide range of a l ternat ives for consideration. For the purposes of th is analys is , options, which are a l ternat ive means of meeting the objective of improved draft in the Fraser, may be d i s t i n -guished from a l ternat ives , which are based on a broader conceptualiza-t ion of the ports problem and which embrace the consideration of varying amounts and/or locations of port development within the estuarine area. Thus the following variat ions to the t ra in ing works scheme, i den t i f i ed by PWC, are options: 1. Implementation of the project in two stages. 2. Different wall alignments and types of structures. 3. Openings within walls to permit movement of f i s h and f lushing. 4. Various mixes of dredging and t ra in ing . 121 On the other hand, some alternat ives to the scheme might be: 1. Maintenance of the status quo. 2. Provision of additional f a c i l i t i e s elsewhere in the region. 3. Expansion of ex i s t ing regional f a c i l i t i e s . 4. Provision of addit ional f a c i l i t i e s elsewhere on the west coast. 5. Other po l i c i e s to reduce regional demand for deep sea port f a c i l -i t i e s . This broader range of a l ternat ives is important to consider because one of these may provide a least cost a l ternat ive to the t ra in ing works pro-posal ("cost" here includes environmental and social costs ) , but th is w i l l not be known unt i l these a l ternat ives are investigated. There ap-pear to be three sets of reasons why a lternat ives such as these were not considered un t i l the promulgation of the regional ports study in 1979. F i r s t , there was a lack of economic incentive for the proponents to consider a l ternat ives . Second, affected interests who incur many of the opportunity costs from the t ra in ing works proposal were not i n -volved in the early stages of the planning process. F i n a l l y , there were a number of behavioural factors constraining the actions of those who were involved in the planning process. These factors are discussed below. a. Lack of economic incentives on the part of the proponents. I t i s c lear from the description of economic effects of the t ra in ing works proposal in Chapter III that while the major benefits from the 122 project accrue to the proponents and deep sea port in teres t s , the major costs are borne by other interests . Thus PWC can expect reduced dredg-ing costs, FRHC can expect increased port revenues, other port f a c i l i -t i e s can ant ic ipate increased p r o f i t s , and deep sea shippers w i l l re -ceive savings. On the other hand, the capita l costs of the proposal are borne by the Federal Government, and ult imately by the Canadian taxpayers. In Chapter II i t was stated that for estuarine resources private costs diverge from socia l costs, because of the common property nature of such resources. The analysis in Chapter III outl ined a wide range of exter-n a l i t i e s which may potent ia l l y threaten other uses of the estuary, e i ther through environmental e f fec t s , or through displacement of other uses by por t - indust r ia l development. Table VI summarizes, from i n fo r -mation in Table IV from Chapter I I I , the d i s t r ibu t ion of benefits and costs from the t ra in ing works proposal. This table indicates that not only are the known benefits and costs d i s t r ibuted in the proponents' f a -vour, but that the costs of major uncertainties accrue to other affected interests . There are three major types of uncertainty stemming from the proposal. F i r s t , there is the question of long term ecological effects resu l t ing from changes in hydraulic and sedimentation processes, from loss of wetland habitat, from increased po l lut ion r i s k s , and from secondary development of r ipar ian lands. Second, there i s the question of socia l Table VI The Training Works Proposal, Summary of Affected Interests Affected Interest Benefits Costs Fisheries and Marine Service xx? Canadian W i l d l i f e Service x? xx? Inland Waters Directorate x xx? Environmental Protection Service x Land Management Branch x Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch x Regional D i s t r i c t s xx Munic ipa l i t ies xx? xx B.C. Hydro xx? Transport Canada x x Commercial Fishermen x? xx? Fish Processors/Tenderers xx? Recreational Bar Fishermen x xx Recreationists xx Conservationists xx Natives xx? Dredging Companies x xx Agr icu l tura l Land Commission xx Farmers xx Parks Branch x Ministry of Highways xx Hunters x xx Riparian Land Owners xx x Treasury Board (Federal) xx Po l lut ion Control Branch x Water Investigations Branch x Affected Interest (Cont'd) Benefits Public Works Canada xx Regional Residents xx? Shallow Draft Shippers xx Deep Sea Shippers xx Shipping Companies xx Port Operators xx xx x Major Impact Incidental Impact Uncertainty about extent of Impact Costs xx? x 125 impacts resu l t ing from both ecological ef fects and secondary develop-ment. F i n a l l y , there are uncertainties about the extent of economic benefits a t t r ibutab le to the project, in l i g h t of changing shipping trends, technology, and physical constraints in the Fraser. The r i sks associated with these uncertainties are borne by other affected i n t e r -ests than the proponents, and whatever the i r ultimate magnitude, they w i l l not a l t e r the d i s t r ibu t ion of benefits and costs from the proposal. F i na l l y , because there i s not a competitive supply market for deep sea ports in the region, there is no incentive for the proponents to provide an optimal amount of navigation and port f a c i l i t i e s . As indicated in Chapter I I, the price shippers pay for using the Fraser does not re -f l e c t the f u l l cost of providing navigation and port improvements be-cause of the existence of various subsidies. Since shippers do not pay the f u l l cost of port development, they have no incentive to re late the i r demand to overal l social costs. The FRHC, which owns the major deep sea port f a c i l i t i e s in the r i v e r , has thus at times been able to meet i n -creased demands by providing increased supply at s o c i a l l y suboptimal pr ices. The lack of a competitive supply market has also enabled FRHC to take advantage of the Port of Vancouver's i n a b i l i t y to obtain approval for necessary capital improvements, as in the case of container terminals. Because Vancouver was slow in responding to increased demand for such 126 f a c i l i t i e s , FRHC was able to obtain federal approval for competitive container f a c i l i t i e s in the Fraser, as outl ined in Chapter V, even though the Fraser is constrained in economically handling modern container vessels. b. Limited involvement of affected interests in the process. The involvement of affected interests in the planning process was des-cribed in Chapter V. The theory of representation outl ined in Chapter II postulated that the values of affected interests must be brought to bear on a problem before a f u l l range of a l ternat ives r e f l e c t i ng the "publ ic i n te res t " can be derived. This section analyses the f i r s t three stages in the planning process: the conceptualization stage, the d e r i -vation of a lternat ives stage, and the evaluation stage. As indicated in the previous two chapters, de f i n i t i on -o f the ports pro-blem as one of inadequate and unpredictable draft in the Fraser has long h i s t o r i ca l associations with FRHC, local mun ic ipa l i t ie s , and PWC. Representation of interests at the conceptualization stage was re s t r i c ted to those interests included in the formal ports provision system out-l ined in Figure 4. Several factors l im i t i n g representation in the provision system can be noted: - Although munic ipa l i t ies are represented on the FRHC, the i r repre-sentatives are "preferably act ive businessmen" (Interdepartmental Group on Canadian Ports, 1968), and are l i k e l y to favour port-indust r ia l development. 127 - There is no representation of regional d i s t r i c t s in the process or of other municipal governments not located adjacent to the Fraser River. - The Port of Vancouver has a separate administrative structure from FRHC and has h i s t o r i c a l l y shown a strong resistence to Depart-ment of Transport ef forts to view lower mainland ports in a region-al perspective. - Provincial representation is l imited to the lease with FRHC on the bed of the lower main arm of the Fraser; the lease s p e c i f i c a l l y requires that the Commission endeavour "with due d i l i gence" to have a l l unreserved and ungranted Crown land in the r i ve r occupied at a l l times to ensure that the province obtains "as favourable and constant revenue as i s poss ib le " . - The EARP, although in place in 1974, does not encourage represen-tat ion of affected interests in i t s early stages. The involvement of affected interests in the process of deriving a l t e r -natives can be evaluated in terms of the effectiveness of each interest in bargaining for the evaluation of a lternat ives which are more favour-able to i t . Table VII, summarizes the effectiveness of involvement by interests in the process of deriving options according to a four point scale with the fol lowing components: 0 no involvement by the interest in the derivat ion of a l ternat ives 1 the interest was informed about the t ra in ing works proposal at th i s stage 128 2 a " c l i e n t " interest was involved in bargaining for considera-t ion of a l ternat ives ( i . e . an interest which is c losely related to and representative of the affected interest) 3 the interest was involved in the bargaining process for the development of a lternat ives 4 the interest generated a more favourable a l ternat ive for evalu-ation through bargaining For the purposes of this Table, the process of bargaining for considera-t ion of a lternat ives has been more loosely defined than in the previous chapter, and includes the period un t i l the Spring of 1976, when the I n i -t i a l Environmental Evaluation was d i s t r ibuted and discussed between PWC and Fisheries s ta f f . Using this scale, i t can be seen that while the proponents were able to have the i r a l ternat ive considered for evaluation, other interests were unable to do so. Fisheries and Environment Canada, Transport Canada, and Treasury Board were involved in the bargaining process but did not press for consideration of a l ternat ives . Instead they focussed on the generation of information about the a l ternat ive derived by the pro-ponents,. Fisheries and Environment Canada came closest to deriving a l -ternat ives, but chose instead to request design options. In the th i rd stage of the planning process, the proponents carr ied out detai led studies of the t ra in ing works proposal, including hydraulic The Training Works Proposal, Affected Interest Fisheries and Marine Service Canadian W i l d l i f e Service Inland Waters Directorate Environmental Protection Service Land Management Branch Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch Regional D i s t r i c t s Munic ipa l i t ies B.C. Hydro Transport Canada Commercial Fishermen Fish Processors/Tenderers Recreational Bar Fishermen Recreational Boat Fishermen Recreationists Conservationists Natives Table VII Involvement of Interests in the Process of Deriving Alternatives Nature of Involvement Effectiveness of Involvement Bargained for generation of engineering 3 "options" Informed during IEE 1 Informed by after IEE 1 F&MS bargained for engineering options 2 Informed by DPW 1 Informed during IEE 1 Contacted during IEE 1 FRHC derived t ra in ing works a lternat ive 2 No contact at this stage 0 Consulted during navigation studies, reviewed 3 proposal at headquarters Informed of proposal during IEE; F&MS involved in 2 bargaining for engineering "options" F&MS involved in bargaining for engineering 2 "options" F&MS involved in bargaining for engineering 2 "options" F&MS involved in bargaining for engineering 2 "options" W i l d l i f e Federation informed during IEE 1 W i l d l i f e Federation informed during IEE 1 No involvement at this stage (do not consider 0 F&MS representative of the i r interests) l\3 Affected Interest (Cont'd) Dredging Comapnies Agr icu ltura l Land Commission Farmers Parks Branch Ministry of Highways Hunters Riparian Land Owners (non-indust r ia l ) ( i ndus t r ia l ) Treasury Board (Federal) Pol lut ion Control Branch Water Investigations Branch FRHC DPW Shipping Interests International. P a c i f i c Salmon Fisheries Commission Nature of Involvement Effectiveness of Involvement Aware of proposal through contacts with 1 proponents Not involved at this stage 0 No involvement at this stage 0 Informed during IEE 1 Not involved at this stage 0 Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch and W i l d l i f e Federation informed during IEE 1 Not involved, at this stage 0 FRHC derived t ra in ing works proposal 2 Reviewed and approved f e a s i b i l i t y studies 3 Not involved at this stage 0 Not involved at this stage 0 Derived t ra in ing works proposal 4 Derived t ra in ing works proposal options 4 FRHC derived t ra in ing works proposal 3 FSMS bargained for engineering "options" 2 CO o 131 model studies, navigation studies, an economic review, and a planning study. In addit ion, Fisheries and Environment Canada undertook environmental studies. F i na l l y , a detai led EIS and a regional ports economic study are underway. The evaluative information generated at th is stage can be used as an i n -dicator of the "representativeness" of the process. As indicated in Chapter II, a representative planning process w i l l generate good i n fo r -mation on the effects of a l ternat ives on the concerns of legit imate i n -terests. In Table VIII, the effectiveness of information generated in meeting the ana lyt ica l requirements of affected interests i s evaluated according to a 4 point scale with the fol lowing c r i t e r i a : 0 no information describing the effects of the proposal on the affected interest has been generated at th i s stage 1 the affected interest was asked to describe the effects of the proposal on i t 2 the effects of the proposal on the affected interest were des-cribed by inference from ex i s t ing data 3 some addit ional information on the effects of the proposal on the interest was generated 4 the affected interest was s a t i s f i ed that adequate information on the effects of the proposal on i t had been generated It can be seen from Table VIII that al though much evaluative information has been generated, there have been serious l imi tat ions in the extent 132 to which the spec i f i c information . requirements of affected interests have been met. This discrepancy has ser iously hampered the capacity and motivation of interests to become involved in a process of bargaining for consideration of more favourable a l te rnat ives , because those i n t e r -ests do not know the extent of the opportunity costs they w i l l be asked to bear. (This problem i s discussed further in the fol lowing section.) c. Behavioural influences on those involved. This section discusses major factors af fect ing the behaviour of i n t e r -ests in generating a lternat ives for evaluation. i . The ports provision system. Those interests involved in the ports provision system have strong i n s t i -tut ional and a t t i t ud ina l incentives to favour navigation and port im-provements in the Fraser, without considering a l ternat ives . The Fraser River Harbour Commission has a c lear mandate under the Harbour Commissions  Act (1964-65) to ensure the orderly development of the Fraser River har-bour and i t s safe use for navigation. S im i l a r l y , Public Works Canada, under the Public Works Act, has the c lear mandate of maintaining and im-proving navigable channels. Having these c lear mandates, the proponents have been able to set and pursue consistent management object ives. FRHC, acting as a quasi-autonomous agency, has advocated the improvement of the Fraser ' s draft to i t s f u l l technical potential for many years. Public Works Canada, acting as a "service agency" for FRHC, has pursued the objective of ensuring that the Commission has ". . . improvements to The Training Works Proposal, Affected Interest Fisheries and Marine Service Canadian W i l d l i f e Service Inland Waters Directorate Environmental Protection Service Land Management Branch Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch Regional D i s t r i c t s Munic ipal i t ies B.C. Hydro Transport Canada Commercial Fishermen Fish Processors/Tenderers Recreational Bar Fishermen Recreational Boat Fishermen Recreationists Conservationists Table VIII volvement of Interests in the Generation of Evaluative Information Information Generated Effectiveness of Involvement DPW-funded studies of habitat u t i l i z a t i o n , 3 water qua l i t y , shoreline inventory DPW-funded studies of wildfowl u t i l i z a t i o n 3 Information on water levels generated during 3 hydraulic studies DPW-funded water qual i ty studies 3 Contacted with respect to effects on Provincial 1 land Asked for information during IEE 1 Asked for information during IEE 1 No contact at this stage 0 No information generated at this stage 0 Navigation studies undertaken 4 Asked for information during IEE; effects described 2 from ex i s t ing information in IEE No addit ional information generated at 0 this stage Effects described from exist ing information 2 in IEE Effects described from exist ing information 2 in IEE Effects described from exist ing information in 2 IEE Effects described from exist ing information 2 in IEE OJ CO Affected Interest (Cont'd) Natives Dredging Companies Agr icu l tura l Land Commission Farmers Parks Branch Ministry of Highways Hunters Riparian Land Owners Treasury Board (federal) Pol lut ion Control Branch Water Investigations Branch FRHC DPW Shipping Interests (Deep Sea) Shipping Interests (Shallow Draft) Information Generated Effectiveness of Involvement Effects on f ishery described by inference 2 No information generated at this stage 0 No information generated at this stage 0 No information generated at this stage 0 Effects described from exist ing information 2 in IEE No information generated at this stage 2 Asked for information during IEE (B.C. 2 W i l d l i f e Federation) Some effects described in planning studies from 2 ex i s t ing information Some information on benefits inferred from 2 ex i s t ing data (B.C. Research Economic Study) w No information generated at th is stage 0 DPW-funded water qual i ty studies 3 Economic benefits inferred from Seattle/ 3 Portland studies; deep sea shippers surveyed Effects on dredging program studied to s a t i s - 4 fact ion of DPW through model studies Benefits to navigation well described in interim 4 report Some potential effects described in IEE 2 135 those (federal) lands necessary to discharge the i r (federal agencies) re spons ib i l i t i e s e f f e c t i v e l y . " (DPW Annual Report, 1974-75) The management objectives of FRHC have been formulated part ly on the basis of demands by deep sea shippers in the r i v e r , and part ly as a resu l t of the perceptions and att itudes of the Commission i t s e l f . The Commission has taken an act ive role in encouraging deep sea port devel-opment in the r i v e r , to the extent of assembling i t s own dock f a c i l i -t i e s . This f a i th in the future of the r i ve r as a deep sea port has not been challenged by PWC, who have increased the shipping draft at the request of FRHC. Thus the management objectives of the proponents and the i r c l i e n t interests have been pursued without serious external constraints, except for the technical d i f f i c u l t y of developing r e l i ab l e engineering works. These i n s t i t u t i ona l factors have in turn given support to strong a t t i -tudes by FRHC, PWC, and local munic ipa l i t ies in favour of deep sea port development in the Fraser, as shown below in Table IX. Table IX Attitudes Favouring Fraser Draft Improvements Interest Att itude Actions PWC II service agency n FRHC, shipping interests and muni-c i p a l i t i e s determine draft require-ments. Least cost draft Search for engineering solut ions. provis ion. 136 Table IX (Cont'd) Interest A t t i tude Actions FRHC Benefits from increased Refusal to pay municipal taxes on shipping exceed cost. docks, estimates of benefits without research. Port f a c i l i t i e s must Pressing for deeper draft and addi t ion-be provided in a n t i c i - al deep sea docks without regional pation of need. trend analysis. Port of Vancouver Development of f a c i l i t i e s in compe-" f u l l " . t i t i o n with Vancouver. Munic ipa l i t ies Port Development pro- Support FRHC and shipping interest s , vides jobs and taxes. FRHC "understands" Support FRHC demands for deeper shipping trends. draft . Given FRHC/s strong mandate to encourage port development in the Fraser, and PWC's service ro l e , i t i s easy to see how the ports provision sys-tem can f a l l v ict im to the "bounded r a t i o n a l i t y " of key actors. As i n -dicated in Chapter II, the theory of bounded r a t i ona l i t y postulates that decision-makers do not consider a range of possible so lut ions, but choose the f i r s t that " s a t i s f i c e s " or is good enough. The t ra in ing works proposal, and i t s precursors of h i s t o r i ca l dredging and t r a i n i ng , are perfect examples of incremental changes at the margin, chosen to remove present constraints. 137 The t ra in ing works proposal i s a techn ica l ly complicated engineering solution to the draft problem in the Fraser. As such i t i s understood by a r e l a t i v e l y small group of highly specia l ized engineers and other s c i en t i s t s . As noted in Chapter I I, Sewell found that engineers tend to expect that the public r e l i e s on them to judge such technical matters, and White found th i s assumption to be generally true. This att i tude in turn leads professionals to make assumptions about soc ieta l prefer-ences which are not tested, and encourages conformity within the pro-fessional organization to accepted problem-solving techniques. Given. PWC's long history of dredging and t ra in ing in the Fraser, and the do-minance of engineering expertise within the Marine Section of the De-partment, i t i s not d i f f i c u l t to understand why s t a f f would conceptua-l i z e the ports problem as an engineering problem and why they would favour a structural so lut ion. i i . The Environmental Assessment and Review Process. In th i s case the EARP has f a i l e d to generate a lternat ives for evaluation. Although the I n i t i a l Environmental Evaluation i den t i f i ed substantial potential environmental impacts from the proposal, the proponents were not encouraged to consider a l ternat ives . On the contrary, the EARP encourages the formation of a Panel and the preparation of a detai led environmental impact statement on a spec i f i c proposal. A major reason for th i s procedure is that the EARP is an internal federal review pro-cess. It i s i n i t i a t e d by proponent agencies and the IEE and EIS are 138 carr ied out under the guidance of the proponents who favour the i n i -t i a l proposal. Because i t i s a consensus process, other federal agen-cies have been reluctant to c r i t i que the need for proposals, and such an analysis has not become an established component of the EARP, a l -though i t has been required in one or two cases. Furthermore, the pro-cess i s bas ica l l y designed to reduce environmental impacts, not to a l -locate resources in a s o c i a l l y optimal manner. It can be seen from the descr ipt ion of the decision process in Chapter V that the EARP very quickly led the planning process to the evaluation stage without a c r i t i c a l review of PWC's conceptualization of the pro-blem or the generation of a l ternat ives for evaluation. The attention of affected interests was thus quickly focussed on the environmental effects of the t ra in ing works proposal to the exclusion of other consider-ations. F i na l l y , because the evaluative information about the proposal w i l l not be avai lable unt i l the completion of the EIS, affected i n t e r -ests w i l l f ind i t most d i f f i c u l t to generate alternat ives for considera-t ion at such a la te stage in the planning process. i i i . The log ic of c o l l e c t i ve action problem. The theory in Chapter II described the d i f f i c u l t i e s that disparate i n -terests have in organizing to lobby for favourable a l locat ions of es-tuarine resources with publ ic goods character i s t i c s . In th i s case, such interests have been hampered by two factors. F i r s t , many of the 139 interests i den t i f i ed in Chapter III did not have the resources to gen-erate a lternat ives to the t ra in ing works proposal. This i s pa r t i cu l a r l y true of the non-government interests who lacked both technical expertise and f inanc ia l resources. A second, and more fundamental constraint was the lack of good information on the opportunity costs l i k e l y to be i n -curred by affected interests from the t ra in ing works proposal (as i n -dicated e a r l i e r in th is chapter). Lacking th i s information, interests could not know whether the transaction costs of becoming involved in the bargaining process would exceed the opportunity costs of the pro-posal . As a resu l t of these constraints, affected interests have been placed in a reactive mode. They must await the results of the EIS for evalua-t i ve information, a f te r which they w i l l not be permitted to suggest a l -ternatives under the EARP, but simply to respond to the adequacy of the EIS, before the federal Minister of Environment makes a decis ion. In this s i t ua t i on , affected interests w i l l l i k e l y be in a posit ion of only being able to oppose the project, rather than being able to suggest a lternat ives to i t . The c l a s s i c confrontation that has followed other projects in the region subjected to the EARP w i l l l i k e l y fol low. 2. L imitations to the generation of evaluative information. This section considers factors which have l imi ted the extent to which good evaluative information on the decision factors described in Chapter V has been generated. In Chapter II good evaluative informa-140 t ion was described as having two c r i t i c a l aspects: the i den t i f i c a t i on and communication to affected interests of the effects of a l ternat ive courses of act ion, and the provision of additional information on a l -ternatives that an interest feels i t needs to know to order i t s pre-ferences. a. Technical factors. Public Works Canada has developed hydraulic data on the Fraser over a very long period. The Department has had the opportunity to empir ica l ly test i t s physical and mathematical models in the f i e l d since the 1940's. This is not to say that a l l the physical effects of the t ra in ing works can be ant ic ipated, but s u f f i c i en t data i s avai lable to meet the pro-ponents' requirements. Nor has PWC been constrained by the Make-or-Buy Guidelines. Adequate contract research capab i l i t y ex ists in the region, including a physi-cal model of the r i v e r . Because of i t s fortuitous pos it ion of having a c lear mandate, wel l -de-fined management object ives, and well-organized c l i e n t i n te res t s , PWC has been able to obtain funding for a long program of physical studies of the Fraser. As a re su l t , the Department has been able to develop an integrated program of engineering works that meets almost a l l i t s objectives for providing maximum draft within technical constraints at the least cost. 141 b. Environmental factors. Concern for environmental factors i s centered in Fisheries and Environment Canada, because of that Department's central role in the EARP, and because of i t s mandate to manage f i s h and migratory wi ldfowl, and to protect the environment from po l l u t i on . The EARP c lea r l y encouraged the generation of extensive information on environmental e f fect s . It i s un l ike ly that PWC would have been motivated to support FEC's research program i f this process were not in place. There were, however, several constraints to FEC's capab i l i t y to generate good information on environmental e f fect s . Concern for estuarine habitat is a recent phenomenon in F i sher ies , dating only from the early 1970's. Furthermore, i n i t i a l research was carr ied out in other B.C. estuar ies, not in the Fraser. By the time attention turned to the Fraser, the Department was constrained in sev-eral ways. F i r s t , the federal government's Make-or-Buy Guidelines were implemented. These were designed to force Departments to contract more of the i r re -search to the pr ivate sector, and to encourage more "relevant" or ap-p l ied research. At the same time, overal l research capab i l i t i e s in the Department have declined since 1973, due to budget constraints. (Caissie and Willmer, 1976) While funding of research under the Unso l i -c i ted Proposals Addendum has increased, most contracts are for applied research, re f l ec t i ng the Make-or-Buy Guidelines. "Contracts l e t under the Make-or-Buy Program are pr imar i ly for applied research, instrument 142 and equipment development, or data co l l e c t i on . A r e l a t i v e l y i n s i g n i f i -cant number of contracts are l e t for basic research." (Fletcher, 1979, p. 1052) Regional support for the aquatic sciences in the univers i ty sector has also diminished, taking into account the rate of i n f l a t i o n , after an i n i t i a l increase in the early 1970's, as shown in Table X, , below. Table X Federal Support for the Aquatic Sciences in the Vancouver Region Recipient (donor agency) Support in thousands of dol lars 1971-2. 72-3 73-4 74-5 75-6 76-7 Westwater (IWD) 90 180 180 157.5 153 88 U.B.C. (NRC) 0 0 130 102.5 105. .8 170 U.B.C. Ins t i tute of Oceanography (NRC) 50 50 50 50 68. .7 70.5 Total 140 230 360 340 327. ,5 328.5 (from Ca.iss.le and Willmer) A second factor constraining Fisheries research on the Fraser Estuary was the Departmental pol icy that "the proponent must pay" for environmental impact studies. This pol icy meant, in e f fec t , that the Department would only do estuarine research in response to spec i f i c development threats. Thus, in the case of the t ra in ing works proposal, Fisheries required PWC to fund environmental studies, not only on the spec i f i c impacts from the t ra in ing works, but also baseline studies unrelated to the spec i f i c project at hand. 143 Fisheries has been strongly c r i t i c i z e d for i t s lack of environmental baseline data on the estuary. The Panel for the Roberts Bank EIS stated that i t was dismayed that more quant itat ive ecological information was not avai lable to evaluate the impacts of the proposed superport expan-sion. "The need to conduct environmental investigations on the developed port, in re lat ion to potential future expansion, should have been obvious and of high p r i o r i t y . " (FEARO, 1979, p. 18) A th i rd factor which has constrained Fisheries research on the estuary i s the reactive mode in which operational s t a f f in the Habitat Protec-t ion Divis ion have operated for many years. The d i rect ion for th i s ap-proach was derived from the Fisheries Act, which placed major emphasis on regulations to control po l l u t i on , a l terat ions to streamflow, and destruction of f i s h . The recent amendments to the Act, which give the Department the power to d i r e c t l y control habitat destruction are a con-t inuation of th i s approach. This at t i tude is important because the con-t ro l of research in Fisheries has been placed in the hands of f i sher ie s management, on the assumption that "close organizational t ie s between s c i e n t i f i c and operational groups w i l l f a c i l i t a t e improvements in both science and f i sher ies management". (F letcher, 1979, p. 1054) In the Fraser, th i s reorganization appears to have led to the use of re -search as a means of implementing regulations, rather than understanding the estuarine ecosystem. Thus the i n i t i a l benthic studies on Sturgeon Bank were not followed up by a detai led study of the remainder of the estuary Instead, i t took the addit ional threat of the t ra in ing works to move the focus of estuarine studies into the r i v e r . . 144 This process is not so much a re f l ec t i on on the p r i o r i t i e s of researchers (who had long recognized the lack of estuarine data) but rather is a resu l t of operational p r i o r i t i e s dictated by perceived development threats requir ing immediate assessment. Operational po l i c ie s have become para-mount because departmental reorganization has e f f ec t i ve l y placed the thrust of research in the hands of managers with the i r more short-term p r i o r i t i e s , and because federal po l icy has constrained long-term re -search, favouring short-term applied research. But, as Vallentyne (1978) has noted, "The sum of a number of s i t e - s p e c i f i c , project-or iented studies does not automatically lead to the development of generalized solutions applicable to other times and places." (p. 355) This lack of research has placed Fisheries in a d i f f i c u l t posit ion with regard to the t ra in ing works proposal. The Departmental stance that a l l wetland habitat must be preserved is inadequate for a major proposal which affects ex i s t ing marshes i n d i r e c t l y , and which may increase the amount of marsh in the estuary. Unt i l the character i s t i c s of pa r t i cu la r aquatic habitats that make them important for salmonids are determined, the effects of the t ra in ing works w i l l be very uncertain, and mit igat ive measures w i l l be r i sky at best. Had previous ecological research been carr ied out in conjunction with the many t ra in ing structures already in the r i v e r , Fisheries may have been able to suggest less r i sky mit igat ive measures for the t ra in ing works proposal. Instead, Fisheries w i l l have to rely on i t s a b i l i t y to bargain for an adaptive approach to the project, with construction in stages and careful monitoring of resu l t s . 145 c. Opportunity costs. The re spons ib i l i t y for generation of information on opportunity costs has been given to the consultants preparing the EIS, with some add i t ion-al analysis to follow during the benef it-cost study being prepared in conjunction with the regional ports study (but based on the findings of the EIS). It i s therefore not possible to evaluate how "good" the information w i l l be, except to make some general c r i t i c i sms of the EARP: - I t delays the generation of evaluative information unt i l late in in the process; although the planning process started in 1974, affected interests w i l l l i k e l y not know the extent of opportunity costs un t i l 1980. - The process doesn't evaluate the need for the project or provide information on other choices. - There i s no continuing l i a i s on with affected interests during the evaluative process; they are asked for the i r "concerns" before information i s generated, and asked to react a f ter i t has been gathered and analyzed. - The process focusses on d i rect environmental and socia l e f f ec t s ; however, in th is case secondary development and i t s cumulative effects may be more s i gn i f i can t . - The generation of large amounts of technical information tends to overwhelm affected interests and obscure the lack of informa-tion on c r i t i c a l assumptions about the need for the project and the need for a l ternat ives . 146 d. Direct costs and benefits. Two factors appear to have inh ib i ted the generation of good information on ant ic ipated benefits from the proposal. F i r s t , as noted e a r l i e r in this chapter, the att itudes of FRHC and PWC discouraged a search for better information. FRHC was convinced that port development would be bene f i c i a l , and that draft improvements were the best means of en-couraging i t . They also f e l t that navigation and port improvements must be provided in advance of need, as was evident with the success of the Port of Seatt le. Given these at t i tudes , further research was not considered necessary. S im i l a r l y , PWC's att i tude that the i r aim was to provide the best draft at the least cost, and that i t was not the i r role to define the "need" for d ra f t , further discouraged analysis of benefits. The second 1 imit ing factor was the f a i l u t e of the PWC-Department of Trans-port committee and of Treasury Board to require additional information when f e a s i b l i t y studies of the proposal were funded in 1973-4. The pro-posal was considered in i so la t ion and without a thorough examination of need. The analysis of cost prepared by PWC has not been challenged to date. Nor is such an analysis included in the terms of reference for the EIS or the benef it-cost study. The l a t t e r study i s asked to describe costs, but not to c r i t i que them. 147 e. Regional considerations. The planning process has f a i l ed to generate information on regional a l -ternatives to the t ra in ing works proposal, although i t i s l i k e l y that the regional ports study w i l l provide valuable baseline data. The basic question one might ask here is why the regional ports study was i n i t i a t e d in 1979 instead of in 1974, or even in 1972, pr ior to the funding of regional container f a c i l i t i e s ? One reason for th i s delay was the per-ception by FRHC and PWC that the Port of Vancouver was " f u l l " or "sev-erely constrained" by inadequate in f ras t ructura l supports. This assump-tion was evident in the Port of Vancouver's expansion plans at Roberts Bank. Yet the EARP Panel for the Roberts Bank EIS rejected the conten-t ion that addit ional f a c i l i t i e s , except for coa l , were required at Roberts Bank at th i s time. Furthermore, two major shippers have moved from the Fraser to Vancouver in recent years (Seaboard and Weyerhaeuser), taking over a m i l l i on tonnes of annual forest product exports with them. A th i rd company, Dow Chemical, decided in 1979 to open a major l iqu ids terminal in the Port of Vancouver, instead of expanding i t s Fraser te r -minal. As indicated in Chapter I I I, the question of port capacity i s related to technological and economic assumptions as well as to demand. The f a i l u r e of Fisheries s t a f f to encourage PWC to consider generating information about a lternat ives to the t ra in ing works proposal, and the f a i l u r e of PWC s t a f f to do so may be related to the i r response to the uncertainties about the effects of the proposal. In developing the 148 t ra in ing works scheme, the proponents were p r i nc ipa l l y concerned with uncertainties related to hydraulic processes and sedimentation patterns in the r i v e r , while Fisheries and Environment Canada s t a f f were p r i -marily concerned about uncertainties due to environmental impacts. Using Quade's (1975) taxonomy, three broad categories of "uncertainty" can be delineated: 1. Uncertainties that can be removed by acquis i t ion of further information. 2. Stochastic uncerta int ies: a. which can be estimated by prob-a b i l i t i e s b. which are random but cannot be reduced to r i sk 3. "Real" uncertainties for which events cannot be ant ic ipated: a. environmental (ecological impacts) b. s t rateg ic (factors beyond the decision maker's control) The proponents have generally recognized uncertainties in the f i r s t two categories. They would be the f i r s t to point out that the morphology of the channel is a resu l t of interact ion between water and sediment d i s -charges and t i da l act ion. It is the dynamic nature of these variables which is the basis for uncertainties about the mechanics of the Fraser River. The engineer recognizes that these factors can be described only by a range of p robab i l i t i e s . These are dealt with by considering an ex-pected range of values over "graded time". "In graded time channel form reaches equi l ibr ium with s ta t i s t i ca l l y -average hydraulic conditions. 149 The Fraser can be studied on the basis of these average conditions. The average conditions can be characterized by a dominant discharge which is the s ingle steady-state discharge that w i l l produce the channel form s im i la r to a range of discharges seen in nature. In the Fraser th is dominant, or channel forming discharge is about 330,000 cfs (9300 m /s). The dominant discharge is frequently used for analysis of channel pro-cess v ia physical or mathematical modell ing". (PWC, 1978, p. 13) Once average values for independent variables are assumed, equations can be formulated to describe antic ipated a l terat ions in dependent v a r i -ables within the r i ve r system. In the Fraser these equations have been f i t t e d to empirical data derived from physical models and from observa-tions in the r i ve r . Once empirical observation over a long period per-mits high confidence levels for a model (as in the case of the t r i f u r -cation works), further research i s treated more as a process of removing uncertainties by acquiring addit ional information than as a means of developing probab i l i ty d i s t r ibut ions for future events. The difference may appear s l i g h t , but in fact i t has the ef fect of obscuring the fact that the i n i t i a l assumptions of the model are bas ica l l y stochastic un-cer ta in t ie s . The response of Fisheries s t a f f to uncertainty has been of two general types. One group, recognizing the lack of ecological research on the lower Fraser, is confident that the impact of the t ra in ing works can be determined through a program of research. Like the engineers, the 150 members of th i s fact ion recognize uncertainties in the f i r s t two cate-gories. Their research methodology would not be d i s s im i l a r to that of the engineers: derive average values for key var iables, model the sys-tem, and test empir ica l ly . There i s , however, a second group who recognize uncertainties of the th i rd type. This group recognizes not only that there are some factors which can be resolved or reduced to p robab i l i t i e s by research, but there are real uncertainties about the effects of the t ra in ing program. This group's view is that so many complex and unpredictable events are l i k e l y to re-su l t from the t ra in ing works that uncertainties w i l l remain over time - -and may even increase with further research. The kinds of questions that trouble this group are as fo l lows: 1. How w i l l the aquatic ecosystem respond to additional s t ress , given the extent of h i s t o r i c habitat loss? 2. How w i l l changes in the nature and extent of man's use of the r i ve r and adjacent lands a f fect the product iv i ty of the aquatic ecosystem? 3. How w i l l fishermen respond to changes in the behaviour of salmon? Despite the recognition of real uncerta int ies, Fisheries did not press for the generation of information on regional a l ternat ives . On the contrary, by agreeing to undertake a program of research on the t r a i n -ing works proposal, and by asking for design options, they implied 151 that the uncertainties about the effects of the proposal on the f i shery could be reduced and that environmental effects could be mitigated to manageable leve l s . This was an assumption that PWC accepted as the reasonable s c i e n t i f i c manner of carrying out research. In short, although Fisheries s t a f f have indicated that they believe that there are real un-certa int ies about the environmental effects of the proposal, they acted as though they could be reduced by invest igat ion. Hence they did not bargain to have a lternat ives considered. f. National considerations. As indicated above the regional ports study can be expected to answer a number of questions of concern from a national perspective. Again, however, i t must be stressed that th is step comes very l a te in the pro-cess. The benef it-cost analysis for the t ra in ing works w i l l not be comparable to other a l ternat ives. Furthermore, since the terms of reference require that d i rect costs and benefits be the only factors considered, key secondary impacts w i l l be ignored. F i na l l y , a benef i t -cost analysis i s severely constrained for a project with a high degree of uncertainty about opportunity costs, such as the t ra in ing works pro-posal, because i t w i l l tend to focus on effects which can be measured in monetary terms. 3. Limitations to the involvement of elected representatives. The theory outl ined in Chapter II postulated that elected representatives should make the f i na l choices of resource a l locat ion for port develop-ment, and that such choices should be based on good information about 152 the effects of a l ternat ives and about the d i s t r ibu t ion of public pre-ferences for a l ternat ives . In th i s case elected representatives have not become involved in the bargaining process leading to the derivation and evaluation of a l te rna-t ives . Thus the Minister of Transport did not require the consideration of a l ternat ives to the t ra in ing works proposal when f e a s i b i l i t y studies were i n i t i a t e d in 1973-74. Nor did the Minister of Environment fol low through on his promise to local interests in 1973 that federal support of estuarine development would be based on an environmental s en s i t i v i t y plan. Thus the planning process has continued for over 5 years without any precise d i rect ion from elected representatives. Without p o l i t i c a l ac-countab i l i t y , the process has been l e f t in the hands of non-elected c i v i l servants, who have been unable, for a var iety of reasons, to fol low up on the expressed desire of both the Minister of Environment and the Minister of Transport for better information on which to base regional decisions. The lack of a l ternat ives , and the lack of good evaluative information on alternat ives have placed elected representatives in the pos i t ion where they w i l l be required to make decisions without good information. They w i l l not be able to choose amongst a l ternat ive courses of act ion, and they w i l l not know the range of soc ieta l preferences. In the f i r s t 153 instance the t ra in ing works proposal w i l l l i k e l y be presented to them in i so la t ion and in the second instance, affected interests w i l l have lacked the necessary information to derive the i r preferences and com-municate them to the i r representatives. 4. Conclusions. 1. While the socia l costs of the proposal were borne by a wide range of in teres t s , the benefits were shared by a r e l a t i v e l y small group of port interests who did not bear any of the major costs. This conclusion is drawn from the analysis in Chapter III and Appendix I. 2. There was no economic incentive on the part of the proponents to a l locate estuarine resources for navigation and port development in a s o c i a l l y optimal fashion. The ex te rna l i t i e s from the propo-sal would not be interna l i zed by the proponents, and a competitive supply market for deep sea navigation and port f a c i l i t i e s in the region was not evident. Thus the assumption that there was a ten-dency toward market f a i l u r e was largely substantiated. 3. At the conceptualization stage a r e l a t i v e l y narrow range of values was brought to bear on the problem, and consequently the ports pro-blem was defined in a manner that precluded the generation of a range of a l ternat ive solutions which ref lected the range of societal preferences. The problem was conceptualized by FRHC as one of inadequate draft in the Fraser, rather than as a regional ports problem. Once th i s was done, only a l ternat ives which increased the draft in the Fraser could be evaluated. 4. As a resu l t only one a l ternat ive was chosen for evaluation. It represented the preferences of a r e l a t i v e l y small group of i n t e r -ests because most affected interests were excluded from th is stage of the process. 3 155 The generation of good information on the a l ternat ive chosen for evaluation was l imi ted in several ways. F i r s t , the EARP focussed attention on one proposal, emphasized environmental e f fec t s , and delayed the generation of evaluation unt i l late in the process. Second, there was l imited involvement by affected interests to ensure that there concerns were analyzed. Third, the perceptions and att itudes of those interests involved in the planning process mitigated against the generation of certain types of evaluative information. For example, the be l i e f by port interests that the Port of Vancouver was " f u l l " convinced them that detai led evaluation of the need to improve the Fraser Port was not necessary. F i n a l l y , there were a number of i n s t i t u t i ona l constraints that made i t d i f f i -cu l t for interests to generate evaluative information. For example, Federal p o l i c i e s , and internal Departmental practices had constrained Fisheries from undertaking baseline b io log ica l research necessary to evaluate the t ra in ing works proposal. There was l imited bargaining amongst interests to determine socia l preferences for several reasons. F i r s t , many interests were excluded from the planning process. Second, most interests lacked evaluative information to become involved in the bargaining process, and the capacity to generate i t . Elected representatives played a l imited role in the bargaining pro-cess. F i r s t , they received l imi ted evaluative information to aid them in making choices. Second, many affected interests could not 156 make the i r preferences known to them. F i na l l y , elected represen-tatives f a i l ed to exercise leadership over powerful agencies, per-mitt ing unelected o f f i c i a l s to interpret societal preferences on the basis of the i r own perceptions and att i tudes. 157 Bib!iography Acres Consulting Services L td . , "Proposal for a port economic study, lower mainland B r i t i s h Columbia", 1978, Banf ie ld, E.C., and Meyerson, M., P o l i t i c s , Planning, and the Public  Interest. Chicago: The Free Press. 1955. B. C. Research, Economic Impact of Improving the Navigable Channel in the Fraser River, 1975. Boyd, F.C., Fraser River Dredging Guide, Technical Report Series, No. PAC/T-75-2, Vancouver, 1975. EIS Study Recommendations: Proposed Improvements to the Fraser River Shipping Channel, Beak Consultants, Vancouver, 1978. Be l l a , David A., Environment, Technology, and Future Generations. Cornva l l i s : Water Resources Research Inst i tute Oregon State Univers ity. January 1978. Bennett, M.G., Indian f i sh ing and i t s cu l tura l importance in the Fraser River system. Fisheries and Marine Service, Department of the Environment, and Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs, 1973. Burns, J.A., Fisheries report on small coastal communities-a p i l o t study. Fisheries and Environment Canada, Fisheries and Marine Services, Vancouver, B.C., 1977. Fraser River Upstream Storage Review Report, Canada-British Columbia Fraser River Jo int Advisory Board, V i c t o r i a , B.C., 1976. C. B.A. Engineering, L td . , An Introductory Study for the Development of the Tidal Sections of the Fraser River, Vancouver, 1958. Department of Public Works, Fraser River History of Improvements 1871-1948, 1949, Vancouver. Pac i f i c Salmon Management for People,, Derek V. E l l i s , ed., western geographical ser ies , volume 13, U V ic , 1977. Ch. 5 Environmental Foresight and Salmon: New Canadian Develop-ments, P. Scott and W. Schouwenburg pp. 121-137. Fraser River Shipping Channel, I n i t i a l Environmental Evaluation, Enviro-con, Public Works Canada, Vancouver, 1976. 158 A. Cont'd. FEARO, Report of the Environmental Assessment Panel, Roberts Bank port Expansion, March, 1979. Festinger, L., A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Evanston, I l l i n o i s , 1957. Fisheries and Marine Service, Kemano II environmental studies, Volume 5, 1976. Fisheries and Marine Service, Submission on the Impact of the Proposed  Port Expansion on the B io log ica l Resources of Roberts Bank, 1978. Forrester, E.A.M., G.B. Square, and M.E.A. North, Lower Fraser f lood pla in study, phase I I, Department of Environment, Vancouver 1974. Fox, Irving K., and Nowlan, J.P. The Management of Estuarine Resources  in Canada. Ottawa: Canadian Environmental Advisory Council. March 1978. Fraser River Estuary Study Steering Committee, Fraser River Estuary Study, V i c t o r i a , 1978. Volume II Proposals for the development of an estuary management plan, summary report; Volume IV Habitat; Volume V Recreation; Volume VII Land Use and Transportation. Fraser River Harbour Commission, A Submission by the New Westminster Harbour Commissioners Concerning the Development of the Fraser River, 1959. Gibb, S i r Alexander, The Report of S i r Alexander Gibb, Department of Transport, 1932. Goodman, D., and P.R. Vroom, Investigations into f i s h u t i l i z a t i o n of the inner: estuary of the Squamish Estuary. Fisheries Service, Vancouver Tech. Rept. No. 1972-12. Greater Vancouver Reqional D i s t r i c t , Farm V i a b i l i t y in Greater Vancouver, 1976. Industry and the Livable Region, Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t , Vancouver, 1977. Haefele, Edwin T. Representative Government and Environmental Management, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1972. Halladay, D.R., and R.D. Harr i s , A commitment to the future, Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch and Canadian W i l d l i f e Service, 1972. Hal per in, Morton H. Bureaucratic P o l i t i c s and Foreign Po l i cy , Washington, The Brookings I n s t i t u t i on , 1974. 159 A. Cont'd. Higgins, R., and W.J. Schouwenburg, A b io log ica l assessment of f i sh u t i l i z a t i o n of the Skeena River Estuary, with special reference to port development in Prince Rupert. Fisheries and Marine Ser-vice Technical Rept. No. 1973-1. Hoos, L.M. and Packman, G.A., 1974, The Fraser River Estuary, Status of  Environmental Knowledge, Special Estuary Series, No. 1, Environ-ment Canada, Vancouver. Hunker, J . , ed., Introduction to World Resources, Erich Walter Zimmer-mann, 1964. Interdepartmental Group on Canadian Ports , Study of Harbour Administra-t ion in Canada, Ottawa, 1968. I s fe ld , E.O., An open l e t t e r re: proposed improvements to the Fraser River shipping channel, June 27, 1978. Johnston, W.A., Sedimentation of the Fraser River Delta, Canada Dept. of Mines, Geological Survey, Ottawa, 1921. Kates, Robert W., Hazard and Choice Perception in Flood Plain Management, Chicago: U. of Chicago Dept. of Geography Research Paper No. 78, 1962." Ketchum, B.H., ed., The Water's Edge: C r i t i c a l Problems of the Coastal  Zone, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1972. An Ecological Evaluation of Fraser Estuary Tidal Marshes: The Role of Detritus and the Cycling of Elements, R.U. K i s t r i t z , Westwater Research Centre, Vancouver, 1978. Kneese, A.V., and S.C. Smith, Eds., Water Research, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1966. Marina Pol icy in the Tidal Area of the Pac i f i c Coast, P h i l i p A. Meyer and Mary C. Harrison, Department of the Environment, Vancouver, 1976. Meyer, P.A., Recreational and Preservation Values Associated with the Salmon of the Fraser River, 1974, Dept. of Environment, Vancouver. Mishan, E.J., Cost-Benefit Analys is . George Al len and Unwin L td . , London, 1972. Northcote, T.G., Biology of the Lower Fraser River: A Review, Westwater Technical Report No. 3, May, 1974, U.B.C. Olson, Mancur, The Logic of Co l lect i ve Act ion, Cambridge, Mass., 1965. 160 A. Cont'd. O'Riordan, T., Environmental ism, Pion L td . , London, 1976. O'Riordan, T., Perspectives on Resource Management, Pion L td . , London, 1971. Ostrom, Vincent, An Alternat ive Approach to the Design of Public Organ-izat iona l Arrangements, Indiana Univers i ty, 1971. Pearson, Norman, Fraser River Harbour Development Study, Vancouver, 1972. Pretious, E.S., Downstream Sedimentation Effects of Dams on Fraser River, B.C., U.B.C, 1972. Proposed Improvements to the Shipping Channel on the Fraser River from New Westminster to the S t r a i t of Georgia, Interim Report, Public Works Canada, Vancouver, 1976. An Introduction to River Mechanics and the Lower Fraser River, Public Works Canada, 1978. Proposed Improvements to the Fraser River Shipping Channel, t ranscr ipt of a public information meeting, May 17, 1978, Public Works Canada, Vancouver, 1978. Transcript of the Proceedings of a Public Workshop, December 2, 1978, Beak Consultants L td . , Public Works Canada, Vancouver, 1979. Quade, E.S., Analysis for Public Decisions. New York, American E l sev ier , 1975. Ruppenthal, Karl M., and W.T. Stanbury, Transportation Po l i cy : Regulation, Competition, and the Public Interests, the Centre for Transporta-t ion Studies, U.B.C, 1976. Sewell, W.R. Derrick, ed., Human Dimensions of Weather Modif icat ion, Chicago, U. of Chicago, Dept. of Geography Research Paper No. 105, 1966. Sewell, W.R.D., and Burton, Ian, ed. Perceptions and Attitudes in  Resource Management. Ottawa*Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, 1971. Simon, H., Models of Man, Wiley, N.Y., 1957. Sproule-Jones, M. The Real World of Po l lut ion Control, unpublished manuscript. Forecast of Ship Trends and Character ist ics as Related to Dry Dock F a c i l i -t ie s in Canada, Volume I, Swan Wooster, 1974. 161 A. Cont'd. Treasury Board, "Terms of reference: port economic study, lower main-land B r i t i s h Columbia", 1978. Vancouver International A i rport Planning Committee, Summary Report prepared by the Ecological Sub-Committee, May, 1975. Vancouver International A i rport Planning Committee. An Environmental  Impact Assessment of the Vancouver International A i rport Expan- sion Proposals, Summary Report. Vancouver, 1976. Western Canada Hydraulics L td . , F ea s i b i l i t y study Development of a f o r t y -foot draft navigation channel, New Westminster to Sandheads, Vancouver, 1977. White, G i lbert F. Environmental Quality in a Growing Economy. The Johns Hopkins Press, 1969. 162 Bibliography B. A r t i c l e s and Papers Bross, D.J. Irwin, "The Nature of Decis ion", in Design for Decision, The Free Press, N.Y., 1953, pp. 18-32. Caiss ie, P.M., and J.S. Willmer, " S c i e n t i f i c resources for f i sher ies and aquatic sciences: the present s i t u a t i on " , FRBC Background Study no. 13, 1976. Cartwright, T . J . , "Problems, Solutions and St rateg ies " , JAIP. May, 1973, Dorcey, A.H.J.,T.G. Northcote, and D.V. Ward, "Are the Fraser Marshes Essential to Salmon?", Westwater Research, Vancouver, 1978. Farthing, G., "The Port of New Westminster", unpublished paper, U.B.C., 1959. Fletcher, H.F., "Toward a relevant science: f i sher ie s and aquatic s c i e n t i f i c resource needs in Canada", JFRB, 34: no. 7, 1979, pp. 1046-1074. Golembiewski, Robert T., "A Cr i t ique of "Democratic Administrat ion 1 and i t s Supporting Ideation, American P o l i t i c a l Science Review 71, 1977, 1488. Heberlein, Thomas A., "The Three Fixes: Technological, Cognitive, and S t ruc tu ra l " , Madison, Wisconsin, University of Wisconsin, 1973. Hi lborn, R. and Peterman, in Pac i f i c Salmon Management for People, Derek V. E l l i s , ed., western geographical ser ies , volume 13, U. of V i c , 1977. Jantsch, Er ich, "From Forecasting and Planning to Pol icy Sciences", Pol icy Sciences 1 (1970), 31-47. Larking, P.A., "Maybe you can ' t get there from here: a foreshortened history of research in re la t ion to management of pac i f i c salmon", JFRB, 36, 1, 1979, pp. 98-106. Lindblom, C.E., "The Science of Muddling Through", Publ ic Administration  Review, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1959, pp. 79-88. Luternauer, J . L . , and J.W. Murray, "Sedimentation on the western de l ta -front of the Fraser R iver " , 1973. Can. J . Earth Sc i . JT j ( l l ) : 1642-1663. Margolis, J . , Journal of Business, Vol. 31, 1958, pp. 187-199. 163 B. A r t i c l e s and Papers (Cont'd) Ostrom, Vincent., "Some Problems in Doing P o l i t i c a l Theory: A Response to Golembiewski's ' C r i t i q u e ' " , American P o l i t i c a l Science Review, 71, 1977, 1508. Pr i tchard, G.I., "Structured Aquaculture Development with a Canadian Perspective", Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada, Volume 33, No. 4, Part 1, Apr i l 1976. p. 856-869. Reimers, P.E. and R.E. L o e f e l l , "The length of residence of juveni le f a l l chinook salmon in selected Columbia River t r i b u t a r i e s . " Oregon Fish. Comm. Res. Rept. 13: 5-19. Russel l , C l i f f o r d S., and Kneese, Al len V., "Establ ishing the S c i e n t i f i c , Technical, and Economic Basis for Coastal Zone Management". Washington: Coastal Zone Management Journal, Volume 1, No. 1, 1973. Sewell, W.R. Derrick, "Changing Approaches to Water Management in the Fraser River Bas in", in White, G i lber t F., ed., Environmental  Effects of Complex River Development, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1969. Sewell, W.R. Derrick. "Environmental Perceptions and Attitudes of Engineers and Public Health O f f i c i a l s . " Environment and Behaviour, March, 1971. S k je i , Stephan S., "Urban Problems and the Theoretical, J u s t i f i c a t i o n of Urban Planning", Urban A f fa i r s Quarterly, Volume 11, Number 3, March 1976, pp. 323-342. Sproule-Jones, Mark " I n s t i tu t iona l and Intergovernmental Arrangements for the Management of Water Qual ity: The Lower Fraser River Case", November, 1976 (unpublished draft) Stanbury, W.T., Vertinsky, I. and Vertinsky, P., "Po l icy Implementation Analys i s " , U.B.C, 1978, memo. Vallentyne, J.R., "Facing the long term: an inquiry into opportunities to improve the climate for research with reference to limnology in Canada", JFRB, 35: no. 3, pp. 350-367, 1978. Wallace, R., "The Tr i furcat ion Pro ject " , paper presented to the 23rd International Navigation Congress, July 1973. Ward, Peter R.B., "Seasonal s a l i n i t y changes in the Fraser River Estuary", Canadian Journal of C i v i l Engineering, Volume 3, No. 2, pp. 342 - 348. 164 Appendix I This Appendix does not consider environmental impacts in a technical sense. This i s well beyond the expertise of the author. Instead, the general nature of potential environmental impacts w i l l be sketched, based on avai lable information, and major gaps in knowledge w i l l be i den t i f i ed . In order to understand the e f fect of the t ra in ing works proposals on the Fraser estuary i t is necessary f i r s t to consider the basic i n t e r r e -lat ionships which a f fect estuarine product iv i ty. Primary product iv i ty i s a resu l t of complex interact ions of fresh water flow from the Fraser and the receiving waters in the S t r a i t of Georgia. Lighter fresh water flows over the denser sa l ine waters of the S t r a i t , influenced by winds, t ides , currents, volume of freshwater flow, the c o r i o l i s e f fec t , and entrainment. A wedge of s a l t water at depth moves into the r i ve r as far as Annacis Island during low flows and to Steveston during freshet. The Fraser is considered a r e l a t i v e l y stable r i ve r with flows f l uc tua t -ing between 68,000 cfs minimum mean annual flow and 123,000 cfs maxi-mum mean annual flow. (Hoos and Packman, 1974) The Fraser drainage basin of 90,000 square miles i s largely (84%) located at a l t i tudes above 600 metres; thus two-thirds of the annual p rec ip i ta t ion in the basin i s in the form of snow, and peak flows occur during Spring freshet (generally to the end of June). The Fraser River carr ies a heavy load of sediment, about 25 m i l l i on tonnes annually at Hope. About 3.5 m i l l i on tonnes are carr ied into 165 the lower reaches and one th i rd of th i s i s deposited there. The re -mainder i s carr ied in suspension into the S t r a i t of Georgia. Concen-trat ions of suspended sediments reach 500-800 ppm during freshet and drop to less than 20 ppm in winter. The transported sediment helps ex-tend the i n t e r t i d a l area on Roberts and Sturgeon Banks by about 2.3 m per annum at the low water level and 4.6 m at the minus 38 m l e v e l . ' In addit ion to bui ld ing the banks, sedimentation has created a number of marshes in the lower reaches of the r i v e r , most notably the Duck-Woodward-Barber Island complex at Ladner. Much of the primary produc-t i v i t y of the estuary can be attr ibuted to these marsh areas in the r i ve r and on the outer banks. The nut r ient - r i ch waters of the Fraser and S t r a i t flood the i n t e r t i d a l areas providing sustenance for benthic algae and marsh vegetation. Detritus in turn is eaten by primary consumers, including benthic inverterbrates and zooplankton. Secondary and t e r t i -ary consumers complete a complex food wed. (see Figure 1) The impor-tant point here i s that a l l the soc ia l ly -va lued l i v i n g resources of the estuary are l inked to the sources of primary product iv i ty. The estuarine environment serves as an important rearing and feeding area for several species of juveni le salmon and herring and a s i gn i f i cant proportion of the i r d iet i s comprised of benthic organisms associated with the i n t e r -t i da l f l a t s and foreshore marshes. (Airport Planning Committee, 1976) The d e t r i t a l food web i s however complex and not completely understood. F i g u r e 1. I l l u s t r a t e d d i a g r a m o f t h e d e t r i t u s f o o d w e b t y p i c a l o f a s l o u g h / c h a n n e l t i d a l J i iarsh h a b i t a t i n t h e F r a s e r E s t u a r y . 167 In terms of biomass, estuarine marsh habitats are highly productive, matching those of intensive agr icu l ture. The marshes are fed by t i da l action (dissolved marine sa l t s ) and from organic par t i c les transported downstream by the r i ve r . These support plant growth which is e i ther consumed in s i tu by primary consumers or i s moved into the S t r a i t by t i da l act ion. Although marshes may not appear important as sources of nutrients compared to quantit ies brought to the estuary from dissolved r i ve r f lows, they appear to be s i gn i f i cant contributers in terms of the i r timing and a v a i l a b i l i t y for consumption. Under natural conditions the Fraser River delta would demonstrate a "dynamic equi l ibr ium" of accretion and erosion, with a consistent area of marsh habitat and annually flooded r ipar ian wetlands in proportion to annual and long term succession patterns. H i s t o r i c a l l y , r i ve r marsh habitat was bu i l t up by s i l t deposit ion, creating r ipar ian marshes along the mainstem and brackish water marshes near the mouth. Deltaic islands would eventually form from brackish marshes but these would be replaced by new marsh habitat as the delta expanded westward. This pattern has been severely modified by dyking, dredging, f i l l i n g , and r i ve r t ra in ing works. The most obvious ef fect of these a c t i v i t i e s has been the loss of wetland habitat. Table I, (Forrester et. al_., 1974) shows the extent of th is loss. 168 Table I Extent of Wetland Communities in the Fraser Estuary Plant Community H i s to r i c Extent Present Extent (ha) (ha) Salt Marsh 2230 380 Bulrush Marsh 1760 1690 Cattail/Sedge March 1830 1493 Wet Meadows 12400 2604 Wet Meadow/Willow 2350 258 Total 20570 6425 In addition to these losses, i t must be recognized that the j e t t i e s at the mouth of the main arm, by stopping the braiding of the channel, have checked the extensive formation of shallow water marsh habitat, and ult imately of new de l ta i c i s lands. It also appears that the Steves-ton Jetty has cut o f f much of the sediment discharge to Sturgeon Bank. Luternauer and Murray (1973) found that there i s a much smaller discharge of sediment to the north than to the south of the main arm. Training works and dredge spoi l s i tes have probably f a c i l i t a t e d the creation of marsh habitat at Steveston Island and in the Duck-Woodward-Barber Island complex. However, i t may be that in the l a t t e r case Woodward Dyke has accel lerated the rate of natural succession in the Ladner Islands, speeding the conversion of marsh to upland without creating complimen-tary submergent marsh habitat elsewhere. ( K i s t r i t z , 1978) 169 The impact of the t ra in ing works on the product iv i ty of the estuary must be considered in several phases. The construction phase would have an immedifce impact. Construction would tota l 16,459 l inear metres of rock wa l l s , groins, s i l l s , weirs, and p i l e s . Table II summar-izes the proposed modifications. Table II Fraser River Shipping Channel Project S i te Pre Dredging Sand Gravel Rock Timber Estimated M i l l i o n Cu.M. tonnes tonnes P i l e Cost Cu.M. M. $ St Mungo Bend 0.644 *(16,056) 85,574 99,397 119,117 4,870,000 Steveston Bend .9 *(13,762) 50,686 461,172 83,333 7,850,000 Steveston Cut - 125,776 268,571 166,992 244,757 8,520,000 Kirkland B i furcat ion - 88,693 106,968 202,361 117,349 5,340,000 Ti lbury Reach - 47,405 162,920 170,303 4,572 3,420,000 i n d i c a t e s sand supplied from pre-dredging Source: Proposed Improvements to the Shipping Channel on the Fraser River from New Westminster to the S t r a i t of Georgia, Publ ic Works Canada, 1976. These modifications would cause the loss of a considerable area of estuarine habitat. Associated dredging and rock dumping would also af fect adjacent habitat. Once the i n i t i a l works are completed a period of approximately 7 years 6 3 of "normal" freshets would be required to scour 16 x 10 m of bedload material to the delta f ront. During this period ve loc i t i e s within 170 the shipping channel would increase although the proponents ant ic ipate that these would diminish to present levels as the or ig ina l cross-sectional area i s recovered. The long term effects of the t ra in ing structures comprise the th i rd phase of environmental impact. These include not only the changes in biophysical processes that might be expected, with the i r associated effects on estuarine product iv i ty , but also include fche impacts of a " f u l l development" scenario in the r i v e r , insofar as improved draft conditions would lead to divergence from present trends. a. Effects on basic estuarine processes. Many of the impacts on estuarine product iv ity follow from potential changes in biophysical processes. The purpose of the project i s , of course, to change the present process of sedimentation. Some 21,000,000 cubic yards of material would be scound from the bed of the navigable channel by temporarily increasing the ve loc i ty . Although the propon-ents believe that v e l o c i t i e s , the o r i g ina l cross-section of the r i v e r , and the amount of sediment leaving the lower reaches w i l l revert to pre-sent levels in s ix to seven years, the Fraser River Estuary Study warned that "(the) t ra in ing programmes have the potential to create serious, long term changes in patterns of erosion, sediment deposition and water c i r cu l a t i on in the estuary and f l oodp la in . " (Habitat Work Group, 1978, p. 112) 171 Considering f i r s t the effects on sedimentation and erosion, there are several possible changes which can be ant ic ipated. F i r s t , there i s the question of where the material to be scoured from the bed of the channel w i l l be deposited. It may smother productive habitat downstream, in side channels, or on the outer banks. At the same time addit ional erosion w i l l undoubtedly require riprapping on banks opposite t ra in ing structures. (Pers. Comm. Inspector of Dykes) This w i l l destroy ad-d i t iona l aquatic habitat. Increased ve loc i t i e s w i l l also remove e x i s t -ing emergent habitat in the channel between t ra in ing structures. These losses may, of course, be compensated for by long term changes in sedimentation patterns. Where w i l l future sediment be deposited? Some w i l l be carr ied to the mouth of the r i ve r and possibly into the s t r a i t . Public Works Canada indicates that addit ional dredging w i l l be required at the mouth. Additional sediment transfer to the s t r a i t may a f fect the plume, (discussed below) Undoubtedly addit ional sedimentation w i l l occur in the areas with reduced ve loc i ty behind the wal l s . Whe-ther such areas w i l l become productive habitats depends on many factors. One set of factors relates to the use that man makes of these slack water areas. They may be dredged for moorage or for access to docks or may be f i l l e d for indust r ia l or port - re lated developments. These factors are discussed in the next section (effects on b io log ica l pro-duc t i v i t y ) . A second set of factors relates to the potential of the project to f a c i l i t a t e development of addit ional marsh habitat quite 172 apart from the question of whether s i tes w i l l be u t i l i z e d by man. One study suggests that past t ra in ing works in the Fraser have been accom-panied by marsh development. (Western Canada Hydraulics, 1977) How-ever, two questions remain unanswered. F i r s t , there i s the question of whether such marsh development compensates for habitat loss e ither in extent or in kind. Second, there is the question of maintenance of a level of dynamic equi l ibr ium in accretion-erosion patterns. A l -though marshes may appear adjacent to t ra in ing works, the i r successional pattern may be accel lerated and they could quite quickly develop into emergent habitat. These areas would not be compensated for by add i t ion-al marsh in the channel (these would be prevented by the t ra in ing works) or at the mouth (these are prevented by Steveston north and south j e t t i e s and other structures) . The t ra in ing structures may also a f fect the processes by which sediment is transported to Roberts and Sturgeon Bank. It has been noted that ". . . the extensive marshlands and t i da l f l a t s of the western delta front of the Fraser River evolved as a resu l t of the interact ion of r i ve r and marine processes. Accompanying changes in the a c t i v i t y of waves and currents have not always compensated for man-imposed a l terat ions to r i ve r flow. Furthermore, the dispersal routes of both s i l t and clay (essential to the maintenance of the marsh) and of sand (essen-t i a l to the s t a b i l i t y of the outer sand f l a t s on which development has taken place) have been and w i l l be altered by the erection of engineering structures on or across the f l a t s . " (Habitat Work Group, 1978, p. 13) 173 Fine sediment i s carr ied far into the S t r a i t of Georgia v ia the Fraser plume, a thin surface layer of r i ver 'water laden with f ine suspended s i l t . The physical and b io log ica l processes of the region are very much dependent on i t s actions. (Beak, 1979, p. 11) However, neither the ex i s t ing processes nor the e f fect of the t ra in ing wall proposals on them are well understood. (Beak, op. c i t , p. 12) In concluding this discussion of sediment processes i t i s useful to note the gaps in present knowledge: "To ensure that c r i t i c a l sand f l a t areas and marsh habitats are not degraded by a lterat ions to the foreshore on r i v e r , the fol lowing information i s required: (a) de f i n i t i on of the major sediment pathways in the estuary and r i ve r channels (b) the rates of sediment supply necessary to maintain the physical i n teg r i t y and the biota of the foreshore Unti l such information is avai lable the impacts of any structures on the foreshore or a l terat ions to the flow of the River, cannot be pre-dicted with any confidence." (Habitat Work Group, 1978, p. 144) The s a l t wedge extends into the r i v e r , under present condit ions, as far as Annacis Island during winter low flows but only to Steveston during peak flows. As the extent of intrus ion i s p a r t i a l l y dependent on 174 channel depth and conf igurat ion, the project may af fect the action of s a l i n i t y int rus ion. This in turn would a f fect flow character i s t ic s and sedimentation patterns as well as primary product iv i ty (due to changes in s a l i n i t y levels during low f low). Salt water destabi l i zes negatively charged suspended part ic les and causes them to f loccu late and s e t t l e . These effects are not well known and are d i f f i c u l t to predict with ex i s t ing steady-state models. (Beak workshop, December, 1979) b. Effects on b io log ica l product iv i ty. Eighty-s ix species of f i s h have been reported in the Fraser estuarine area. (Northcote, 1974) Of these, 29 can be considered estuarine spe-cies due to residency or migratory features. (Habitat Work Group, 1978, p. 55) Twelve species are of commercial importance. Eulachons, which enter the r i ve r in the b i l l i o n s from mid-March to mid-May, are numerically the dominant users of the lower Fraser. These are followed in number by the pink salmon, which average over 5 m i l -l i on adult migrants in odd-numbered years, and 220 m i l l i on juveni le migrants in even numbered years. Juvenile sockeye average 45 m i l l i on annually while juveni le chum average 27 m i l l i o n . (Northcote, 1974, p. 70) Season usage of the lower Fraser by major migratory f i s h is summarized in Figure 2. Much of the ava i lable data on aquatic biology in the estuary relates to the commercially s i gn i f i can t salmonids. Although there are s i g n i -175 F T ™ ] Y O U N G " D O W N S T R E A M E- J M IGRANTS fflf/Jft A D U L T D O W N S T R E A M " VWtfA M IGRANTS • AOULT U P S T R E A M MIGRANTS - - - -JAN JUL SEP NOV STEELHEAD 1 MILLION X " / 65,000 "— .^1000 / - — JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 104 ~ -~ 10* ~ JAN MAR JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Seasonal usage of the lower mainstem Fraser R i v e r by the major sp e c i e s of migratory f i s h e s . Note l o g a r i t h m i c o r d i n a t e s Source: Northcote, 1974 176 f i cant data gaps, th i s section w i l l focus on the salmon species because of the i r commercial and recreational values and because there is less data on other resident f i s h species. Several impacts on salmonids and other estuarine f i s h must be considered from th i s proposal: 1. short term and long term effects of changes in basic estuarine processes 2. effects on estuarine habitats The f i r s t impact of the project would stem from the bui ld ing of the t ra in ing works and associated dredging and f i l l i n g . This would un-doubtedly cause the loss of some f i s h , although the timing and methods of construction would be c r i t i c a l cont ro l l ing factors . During the years of increased ve l oc i t i e s and movement of sediment to the delta f ront, there may be an adverse impact on migration patterns and s u r v i -val rates. Very l i t t l e i s known about these factors and they are the subject of study under the t ra in ing works environmental impact s ta te -ment. Nevertheless, i t i s of s ign i f icance that a major f i s h k i l l , even over a s ingle migration period, would have a s i gn i f i can t impact, in that i t would take a number of years for stocks to return to e a r l i e r l e ve l s , i f indeed they would return under natural condit ions. Species that are natura l ly rather s table, tend to exhib i t l i t t l e r e s i l i ence . Once 177 a population has "crashed" to a lower population l e v e l , i t may stay there even i f the perterbation which caused the crash ceases. This was the case with the collapse of the Great Lakes f i shery , and in the Fraser, was the resu l t of the Hells Gate S l ide . Thus one of the goals of the Salmonid Enhancement Programme is to restore commercial catches to pre-Hells Gate l eve l s . As indicated e a r l i e r , the t ra in ing works could have s i gn i f i c an t impacts on the development and maintenance of both inshore marshes and marshes on the t i da l mudflats. They may cause the destruction or degradation of ex i s t ing marshes and may f a i l to compensate for t he i r loss. These can have two adverse e f fec t s : damage to food webs supporting salmon, and loss of marsh habitat essential to the survival of juven i le salmon. Figure conceptualizes the de t r i t a l food web and i t s re la t i on to salmon. Without marsh habitat, nutrients would not be released from sediments by marsh vegetation and consequently would not be ava i lable for the food webs which support salmon. Thus "the general observation that vascular plant production of sa l t marshes and t i da l freshwater marshes dominates the overal l primary production of turb id shallow estuarines can probably be applied as a va l i d general izat ion to the Fraser Estuary". ( K i s t r i t z , 1978, p. 24) Although juveni le salmon have been found in most marsh areas in the Estuary, the extent of u t i l i z a t i o n varies with species. More important, i t i s not yet c lear whether salmon "res ide" in the marshes for pro-178 longed periods. " I t i s evident that sockeye and pink juveni les do eat while passing down the lower River and through the estuary and are de-pendent on estuarine habitats. However, there are no data enabling comment on the "residence time" of the various juveni le salmonid spe-c i e s . " (Habitat Work Group, 1978, p. 80) Although salmon are found in marsh habitats throughout the estuary, "there i s s t i l l no conclu- sive evidence of temporary residence by any species of young salmon on e i ther the inner or outer marsh-tidal f l a t s of the Fraser." (Westwater Research, 1978, p. 7) At best, i t can be stated that some species u t i l i z e some marsh habitats for up to a few weeks or months. On the other hand, there is no evidence that such areas are not u t i l i z e d as temporary residences. Other common assertions about salmon use of marshes include: marshes are used to permit acc l imat izat ion to seawater; they are r i ch feeding areas in which salmon achieve rapid growth needed for survival at sea; that they are "staging" areas where salmon stay unt i l offshore conditions are more favourable; that marshes are tem-porary refuges from predators. None of these assertions has been conclusively substantiated for a l l species, although there i s also no evidence that any of them are wrong, and each is based on some empir-i ca l evidence for some species (but not necessari ly in the Fraser). From this discussion i t should be c lear that there i s considerable un-certainty about the importance of the marshes for salmon su rv i va l . Further, there i s the question of whether remaining marsh habitat, even 179 i f preserved, is adequate to permit salmonid enhancement to planned leve l s . These factors make estimating the impact of the t ra in ing works on f i sh product iv i ty most d i f f i c u l t . Although i t i s most probable that the net e f fect of the t ra in ing works w i l l be detrimental to f i s h pro-duct i v i t y , the magnitude of the ef fect cannot be estimated with present knowledge. The Fraser marshes are important for 203 species of birds (Hoos and Pack-man, 1974). "Two m i l l i o n ducks, perhaps f i ve m i l l i o n shorebirds and thousands of other birds migrate annually through the area. In add i t ion, about 250,000 ducks, 20,000 snow geese and one m i l l i o n shorebirds re-main to winter on the t i da l marshes and agr icu l tura l lands of the Fraser Va l ley . " ( I b id . , p. 151) The thirteen percent of the delta wetlands which is vegetated i s a key wintering area for wi ldfowl. The marshes provide c r i t i c a l feeding areas for migrants and overwintering birds. In f ac t , the Fraser estuary supports the largest population of winter-ing waterfowl in Canada. (Taylor, 1974) Most waterfowl u t i l i z e both marsh habitat and upland areas. Thus the development of upland areas and the cessation of winter flooding (due to dyking programmes) can adversely a f fect waterfowl use of the estuary even i f marsh habitat is preserved. I f a " f u l l development scenario" resu lts from the t ra in ing works, then wildfowl u t i l i z a t i o n of the estuary could be reduced even i f addit ional wetland habitat is not l o s t . 180 If the proposed t ra in ing works remove vegetated wetland areas, they w i l l undoubtedly adversely a f fect resident and migratory wildfowl pop-ulat ions. For example, increased flows would remove midchannel habitat used by Western Grebes. (Beak Workshop) The importance of marsh hab-i t a t i s wel1-documented for wi ldfowl. But i t i s not possible to e s t i -mate what the c r i t i c a l threshold of required marsh i s for maintaining present b i rd populations. There is good evidence that some species once abundant are now rare (Leach, 1976, l e t t e r to R.D. Harris) but i t i s not possible to a t t r ibute th i s to loss of marsh habitat as opposed to loss of dyked f loodp la in , hunting, and general pressures of urban de-velopment. It can only be stated in general terms that there is a very strong case for negative impacts on bird populations i f addit ional marsh habitat is l o s t . Turning to the secondary effects of the proposal on b io log ica l produc-t i v i t y , i t i s necessary to consider the f u l l range of a l terat ions to the estuary which would fol low i f the Fraser develops as a deep sea port with 40 dra f t . It is not f a i r to a t t r ibute a l l the environmental costs of future port - re lated development to the t ra in ing works proposal. This would be j u s t i f i a b l e i f port development were to cease without the provision of a deeper navigable channel. However, there are i n -dications that considerable port development can be ant ic ipated with in the constraints of present draft . Shallow draft shippers in the Port 181 of Vancouver expect to lose the i r leases as deep sea f a c i l i t i e s expand and as urban pressure on the waterfront increases. Vancouver harbour currently accounts for 37% of the region 's coastwise shipping of 5,863,054 metric tonnes in 1976. (Land Use Work Group, 1978) The north arm of the Fraser, which accounts for 56% of the region 's coast-wise shipping, suffers from l imited d ra f t , height r e s t r i c t i o n s , and a lack of undeveloped backup land. Thus, the main arm appears increas-ingly a t t rac t i ve for medium-draft shippers that are being squeezed out of Vancouver harbour or that u t i l i z e the larger t r an s i t s . (Personal communication, CMC) Major medium draft f a c i l i t i e s such as the CN barge loading dock on Ti lbury Island, and the proposed Rivtow scow moorage s i t e at Lion and Don Islands can be antic ipated to increase. In addit ion to foreshore loss , i t i s conceivable that addit ional ship-ping would bring increased r i sks of po l lu t ion . Although the number of ships may be reduced, larger ships with larger cargoes would bring higher r i sks of major s p i l l s from shipping accidents. Forty feet of draft i s l i k e l y to be inadequate for future tanker t r a f f i c , but any large ship can cause a major s p i l l of f ue l . "Recent experiences have i l l u s t r a t e d that shipping accidents not involving tankers can s t i l l result in the release of s i gn i f i cant quantit ies of o i l to the rece iv-ing waters. S p i l l s of th is nature in . . . any portion of the Fraser delta foreshore would have s i gn i f i cant detrimental impacts on the natural resources of these areas." (Fisheries Service Submission to 182 the Roberts Bank EIS, P. 9) The recent o i l s p i l l at Steveston i n d i -cated how d i f f i c u l t i t i s to respond to a s p i l l in a r i ve r with high ve loc i t i e s . While the t ra in ing works cannot be blamed for potential damage from a l l future water-oriented uses of the lower Fraser, i t must be recog-nized that one of the aims of the proposals i s to create a more stable draft for ships currently able to u t i l i z e the r i v e r . Thus the t r a i n -ing works can be judged to at least accel lerate the pace of water-front development, i f not increase overal l demand. The loss of re-maining natural areas w i l l therefore increase at a time when the value of and demand for retention of natural areas i s increasing. If the t ra in ing works lead to more intense use of areas behind them, then there i s potential for additional environmental impacts. I t has been suggested that foreshore structures have been part ly responsible for expansion of t i da l marshes. (Western Canada Hydraulics, 1977) This p o s s i b i l i t y has been introduced as a potent ia l l y "mit igat ing factor " for damage to ex i s t ing marshes at t r ibutab le to the t ra in ing works. I t was noted e a r l i e r that th is assertion ignores the uncertain-ty which remains with regard to the overal l e f fect of t ra in ing s t ruc-tures on marsh morphology. It also ignores the p o s s i b i l i t y that areas behind t ra in ing walls w i l l be used for other purposes. F i r s t , there i s the p o s s i b i l i t y that additional dredging w i l l occur. Three of the proposed t ra in ing works (St. Mungo Training Wal l , T i lbury Training Wall, and Kirkland B i furcat ion Training Wall No. 1) would enclose ex i s t ing water-oriented f a c i l i t i e s , creating the p o s s i b i l i t y of ad-183 d i t iona l dredging requirements to maintain dra f t . Of greater s i g n i f i -cance is the demand for dredgate for f i l l i n g at i ndus t r i a l s i t e s . V i r t ua l l y a l l of the i ndu s t r i a l l y zoned land along the main arm of the Fraser requires extensive s i t e preparation. In addit ion there i s a growing demand for r i ve r sand in conjunction with roadbuilding and extension of sewer and water services. F i na l l y , the exhaustion or re-development of major upland s i tes such as Mary H i l l and North Surrey has created a demand for r i v e r sand from the construction industry. These demands are ref lected in the extensive pr ivate dredging which takes place in the main arm, an amount exceeding the annual maintenance dredging. I f the t ra in ing works reduce annual maintenance dredging by 80%, an addit ional demand w i l l occur to replace dredgate now pumped by the PWC pipel ine dredge onto i ndu s t r i a l l y designated land. In sum, any s i l t e d areas behind t ra in ing works w i l l become increasingly a t t rac t i ve for pr ivate dredging. A reduction in maintenance dredging w i l l by no means mean an end to dredging in the main arm. The waters behind t ra in ing works w i l l also be a t t rac t i ve for uses which require slack water. A major use, for which regional demand is ex-pected to grow s tead i l y , is small c ra f t moorage. A 1976 report (DOE, 1976) indicated that the demand for permanent recreational moorage ex-ceeded supply by 48,000 l i nea r feet. However an informal survey by the author in 1977 indicated vacancy rates of up to 15% for marinas in the Fraser Estuary. The difference can probably be at t r ibuted to the 184 e l a s t i c i t y of demand for marina berths. If costs are high, users w i l l turn to a lternate methods such as dry land storage. Nevertheless i f regional demand increases at the rates estimated by Meyer (from 279,000 l inear feet in 1976 to 339,000 in 1986 and 449,000 in 2000) major ad-d i t iona l f a c i l i t i e s w i l l be required. (Meyer's f igures are l i k e l y exaggerated since he i den t i f i e s the growth in regional population as the major factor contributing to demand and population estimates have declined since 1976). Marina expansion in the north arm i s re s t r i c ted to a portion of the middle arm between Dinsmore Bridge and Oak St. Bridge, (by NFHC pol icy) Marinas are proposed at White Rock and Lad-ner harbour, but beyond these there is l i t t l e potential for f a c i l i t i e s with ready access to the Gulf Islands. It can be assumed then that there w i l l be pressure for marina development behind the t ra in ing works. While boat moorage i t s e l f i s not considered an environmental problem, f i l l i n g of foreshore to provide access to f loats and for backup devel-opment does reduce aquatic habitat. For example, in Deas Slough, pro-ductive marsh has been lo s t through marina development. From this discussion i t i s evident that the t ra in ing works proposal has considerable potential for environmental impacts. I t should be stressed, however, that there are many uncertainties about the nature and extent of such e f fec t s . Consequently, the impacts described in th i s Appendix should be considered as threats rather than de f i n i t e costs. These threats are translated into social opportunity costs in Chapter I I I. 

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