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Soviet-American computer trade : a facet of international interdependence McGhie, Michael John 1979

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SO VIET-AMERICAN COMPUTER TRADE: A FACET OF INTERNATIONAL INTERDEPENDENCE by MICHAEL JOHN MCGHIE B i S . , M i c h i g a n S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , 1971 l THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Department o f P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e ) We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SEPTEMBER 1 9 7 9 © M i c h a e l John McGhie, 1 9 7 9 In presenting th i s thesis in par t i a l fu l f i lment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Univers ity of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library shal l make i t f ree ly avai lable for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of th i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It i s understood that copying or publ icat ion of th i s thesis for f inanc ia l gain shal l not be allowed without my written permission. Department nf P o l i t i c a l Science The Univers ity of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 wesbrook Place Vancouver, Canada V6T 1W5 Date September 17, 1979 i i ABSTRACT I n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s i s now c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . T h i s f a c t i s b o t h t h e c a u s e and e f f e c t o f i n c r e a s e d t r a n s n a t i o n a l and t r a n s g o v e r n m e n t a l c o n t a c t s , a r i s i n g f r o m t h e . s i z e and c o m p l e x i t y o f modern g o v e r n m e n t s . T r a d i t i o n a l c o n c e r n s a b o u t m i l i t a r y s e c u r i t y r e s u l t e d i n t h e o r i e s of i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s w h ich f o c u s s e d p r i m a r i l y on t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r war between s o v e r e i g n s t a t e s and r e l e g a t e d i s s u e s o f t r a d e , e c o n o m i c s , c o m m u n i c a t i o n s and t h e l i k e t o t h e s t a t u s o f "low p o l i t i c s " , . The r e a l i t y o f w o r l d p o l i t i c s t o d a y r e q u i r e s t h e a n a l y s t t o r e a s s e s s t h e r o l e o f e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r a c t i o n . M i l i t a r y f o r c e i s an u n w i e l d y o r i n a p p r o p r i a t e t o o l f o r many v i t a l i s s u e s i n t h e c o n t e m p o r a r y w o r l d s Computer t r a d e i s one s u c h i s s u e . The a n n u a l v a l u e o f t r a d e i n c o m p u t i n g e q u i p m e n t i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y US$10 b i l l i o n , and i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e m a n y f o l d i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e ; T h i s p a p e r f o c u s s e s on computer t r a d e between two s t a t e s w h i c h t h e t r a d i t i o n a l t h e o r y p o s i t s a s m o r t a l e n e m i e s . The i m p o r t a n c e o f c o m p u t e r s t o a modern s o c i e t y makes co m p u t e r t r a d e between a d v e r s a r y n a t i o n s a c o n t r o v e r s i a l s u b j e c t s . The e m p h a s i s o f t r a d i t i o n a l t h e o r y on m i l i t a r y s e c u r i t y i s an i n a d e q u a t e p e r s p e c t i v e f r o m which t o a s s e s s t h e e f f e c t s o f computer t r a d e ; t h e r e f o r e , t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e p a radigm o f Keohane and Nye i s used f o r t h e b a s i s o f t h e p o l i t i c a l a n a l y s i s i i i p r e s e n t e d i n t h i s paper,. . A c h a p t e r on computer s o f t w a r e i s p r e s e n t e d f o r t h e r e a d e r who i s n o t k n o w l e d g a b l e about c o m p u t e r s . H o p e f u l l y , t h e r e a d e r w i l l u n d e r s t a n d more about how c o m p u t e r s work, a b o u t t h e amount o f t h o u g h t and l a b o r r e q u i r e d t o b u i l d and use c o m p u t e r s , and why s o f t w a r e and h a r d w a r e c a n be c o n s i d e r e d s e p e r a t e l y . .. The l a s t p o i n t i s c o n s i d e r e d e s p e c i a l l y i m p o r t a n t f o r t h e f u t u r e o f r e l a t i o n s between t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e U n i o n o f S o v i e t S o c i a l i s t R e p u b l i c s : . i v TABLE OF CONTENTS C h a p t e r 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n • *« 1 C h a p t e r 2 P o l i t i c a l A s p e c t s o f Computer T r a d e , , i . i . . 10 C h a p t e r 3 The P o l i t i c a l M i l i e a u : B i l a t e r a l Dependence .....18 C h a p t e r 4 Computers i n t h e S o v i e t S o c i e t y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 C h a p t e r 5 The S i g n i f i c a n c e o f S o f t w a r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 C h a p t e r 6 C o n c l u s i o n : i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 B i b l i o g r a p h y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..• . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Appendix A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... .. . . 70 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION R e l a t i o n s between s t a t e s has been t h e : t r a d i t i o n a l focus of s tudents of i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s . The s t a t e i s seen as the " b a s i c u n i t of a c t i o n " , the possessor and user of power (meaning, of course , m i l i t a r y p o w e r ) i 1 The s t a t e was the a c t o r which sub jec ted l e s s e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s and other s t a t e s to i t s w i l l by the constant t h r e a t ( e x p l i c i t or i m p l i c i t ) of the use of m i l i t a r y f o r c e . . The . s t a t e - c e n t r i c view ho lds t h a t s a l i e n t p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s such as geography, t e c h n o l o g y , and domestic p o l i t i c s , w h i l e c o n t r i b u t i n g to the environment of s t a t e - t o -s t a t e i n t e r a c t i o n , a r e , f o r purposes of a n a l y t i c a l convenience , o u t s i d e the s y s t e m . 2 The assumptions of t h e : s t a t e - c e n t r i c model are summarized as f o l l o w s : 1. s t a t e s as coherent u n i t s are the dominant a c t o r s i n world p o l i t i c s , 2. f o r c e i s a usable instrument of p o l i c y , and 3 . there i s a h i e r a r c h y of i s s u e s i n world p o l i t i c s headed by q u e s t i o n s of m i l i t a r y s e c u r i t y . 3 This model ho lds the s t a t e to be a o v e r a l l a c t o r ; the s t a t e ac t s i n the u n i f i e d i n t e r e s t of i t s people . In the d i s c u s s i o n of 0\.S. -Soviet computer t rade which f o l l o w s , these assumptions w i l l be cha l l enged e x p l i c i t l y or i m p l i c i t l y ; , Keohane and Nye found t h i s s t a t e - c e n t r i c model of wor ld 1 Robert 0 . Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, J r . , e d s . . T r a n s n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s , a n d ^ W o r l d ; P o l i t i e s (Cambridge: Harvard U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1971), p . i x . 2 Keohane and Nye, p . x, 3 Robert 0. .Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, J r . , Power and Interdependence: World P o l i t i c s . i n ^ T r a n s i t i o n - (Boston: L i t t l e , Brown and Company, 1977) , p i 23. 2 p o l i t i c s t o have i n a d e q u a t e a n a l y t i c a l power t o e x p l a i n t h e phenomena w h i c h t h e y and many o t h e r s o b s e r v e d i n t h e y e a r s f o l l o w i n g t h e end of World War I I . . C o n t a c t s between b u r e a u c r a c i e s and a g e n c i e s o f g o v e r n m e n t s have become r o u t i n e i n many c a s e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e E u r o p e a n E c o n o m i c Community; t h e s e t r a n s g o v e r n m e n t a l c o n t a c t s t a k e p l a c e below t h e l e v e l o f h i g h d i p l o m a c y . I n c r e a s e d numbers o f n o n - s t a t e i n t e r n a t i o n a l a c t o r s a n d t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e i n f l u e n c e which t h e s e a c t o r s seemed t o have s u g g e s t e d i n a d e q u a c i e s i n the c l a s s i c a l m odel. O r g a n i z a t i o n s o t h e r t h a n s t a t e s (or g o v e r n m e n t a l s u b u n i t s ) were o b s e r v e d i n t e r a c t i n g a c r o s s n a t i o n a l b o u n d r i e s i n ways w h i c h d i d n o t f i t t h e model o f s t a t e s ' b e h a v i o r d o m i n a t e d by t h e c o n s t a n t d a n g e r o f m i l i t a r y c o n f l i c t . These t r a n s n a t i o n a l a c t o r s i n c l u d e d l a r g e c o r p o r a t i o n s as w e l l as s e r v i c e o r g a n i z a t i o n s s u c h as t h e Red C r o s s , and o r g a n i z a t i o n s s u c h as t e r r o r i s t g r o u p s (the PLO).. These t r a n s n a t i o n a l and t r a n s g o v e r n m e n t a l r e l a t i o n s t a k e p l a c e i n a much more complex f a s h i o n t h a n would be p r e d i c t e d by t h e s t a t e - c e n t r i c m o d e l i S t a t e s which a c t e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s t a t e - c e n t r i c model o f t e n f o u n d t h e m s e l v e s f a c i n g p o l i c y f i a s c o s . , One example (which w i l l be somewhat expanded below) i s t h e F r e n c h g o v e r n m e n t ' s a t t e m p t i n t h e mid-1960's t o e n s u r e . a n a l l - F r e n c h computer i n d u s t r y ; The g o v e r n m e n t ' s p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s i n 1963 and 1965 have ( a l o n g w i t h o t h e r f a c t o r s ) i r o n i c a l l y r e s u l t e d i n an A m e r i c a n - d o m i n a t e d computer i n d u s t r y i n F r a n c e . O b s e r v a t i o n s o f i n c r e a s e d t r a n s g o v e r n m e n t a l and t r a n s n a t i o n a l i n t e r a c t i o n s c o u p l e d w i t h t h e i n a d e q u a t e 3 e x p l a n a t o r y power o f c l a s s i c a l t h e o r y i n s p i r e d Keohane and Nye t o f o r m u l a t e an a l t e r n a t i v e . p a r a d i g m t o e x p l a i n t h e phenomena. They s e e t h e w o r l d now c h a r a c t e r i z e d by complex i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e * The s t a t e - c e n t r i c model i s n o t c o m p l e t e l y i n v a l i d ; m i l i t a r y power i s much g r e a t e r t h a n e v e r . However, complex i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e b e t t e r e x p l a i n s t h o s e s i t u a t i o n s where m i l i t a r y power i s n o t e f f e c t i v e o r a p p l i c a b l e * . How i s i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e d e f i n e d ? Dependence, s i m p l y d e f i n e d , means a s t a t e o f b e i n g d e t e r m i n e d o r s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t e d by e x t e r n a l f o r c e s . I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e , most s i m p l y d e f i n e d , means mutual d e p e n d e n c e . . I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i n w o r l d p o l i t i c s r e f e r s t o s i t u a t i o n s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by r e c i p r o c a l e f f e c t s among c o u n t r i e s o r among a c t o r s i n d i f f e r e n t c o n t r i e s , * * I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i s n o t l i m i t e d t o s i t u a t i o n s o f mutual b e n e f i t , n o r a r e t h e t r a n s a c t i o n s n e c e s s a r i l y s y m m e t r i c a l i n t h e s e n s e t h a t o n e ' s g a i n i s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e o t h e r ' s l o s s * Power, i n t h e c o n t e x t o f i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e , i s s e e n n o t as t h e a b i l i t y t o e n f o r c e an a c t o r ' s w i l l on o t h e r a c t o r s , b u t r a t h e r as c o n t r o l o v e r r e s o u r c e s . T h i s c o n t r o l o v e r r e s o u r c e s , o r p o t e n t i a l t o a f f e c t o u tcomes, h a s two d i m e n s i o n s : s e n s i t i v i t y and v u l n e r a b i l i t y . S e n s i t i v i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e " i n v o l v e s d e g r e e s of r e s p o n s i v e n e s s w i t h i n a p o l i c y framework -how q u i c k l y do c h a n g e s i n one s t a t e b r i n g c o s t l y c h a n g e s i n a n o t h e r , and how g r e a t a r e . t h e c o s t l y e f f e c t s ? 1 ' 5 , S e n s i t i v i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i s e v i d e n c e d by t r a n s b o r d e r e c o n o m i c * Keohane and Nye, 1977, p, 8,. 5 Keohane and Nye, 1977, pi. 12. 4 i n t e r a c t i o n s , such as an o i l embargo, where t h e c o s t i s measured i n t e r m s o f monetary u n i t s ; and a l s o by t r a n s b o r d e r i n t e r a c t i o n s such as t e r r o r i s t a t t a c k s , !where t h e c o s t i s measured i n t e r m s o f l i v e s and a h e i g h t e n e d s e n s e o f f e a r i n t h e s o c i e t y . The s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e U.S. t o c h a n g e s i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l o i l s u p p l y and d i s t r i b u t i o n can b e . s e e n f r o m t h e r e c e n t r e v o l u t i o n i n I r a n ; even t h o u g h I r a n had d i r e c t l y s u p p l i e d o n l y a s m a l l f r a c t i o n o f t o t a l U.S. o i l i m p o r t s , t h e p r i c e o f p e t r o l e u m . p r o d u c t s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s r o s e s h a r p l y i n t h e f i r s t two q u a r t e r s o f 1979;. 6 S e n s i t i v i t y assumes t h a t p o l i c y ( f o r example, t h e p o l i c y o f i m p o r t i n g o i l ) r e m a i n s unchanged; t h i s c o u l d be e v i d e n c e o f an a c t o r ' s commitment t o a p o l i c y , o r might r e f l e c t t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f f o r m u l a t i n g new p o l i c y w i t h i n a s h o r t t i m e . 7 V u l n e r a b i l i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e r e f l e c t s a l o n g e r t e r m c h a r a c t e r i s t i c , t h e r e l a t i v e a v a i l a b i l i t y and c o s t l i n e s s o f a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t a c t o r s f a c e ; t h a t i s , t h e a b i l i t y t o c h ange p o l i c y ; A n o t h e r d e f i n i t i o n i s t h e " a c t o r ' s l i a b i l i t y to s u f f e r c o s t s i m p o s e d by e x t e r n a l e v e n t s even a f t e r p o l i c i e s have been a l t e r e d ; " 8 A s t a t e would be v u l n e r a b l e i n t h e f a c e o f h i g h e r p r i c e s f o r i m p o r t e d o i l i f i t had no d o m e s t i c a l t e r n a t i v e s u p p l y which c o u l d r e p l a c e t h e u n a v a i l a b l e o r o v e r p r i c e d i m p o r t 6 I t has been s u g g e s t e d t h a t i m p o r t s h o r t a g e s were m a n i p u l a t e d by t h e o i l c o m p a n i e s ; but t h i s e v i d e n c e does n o t n e g a t e t h e p o l i t i c a l s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o o i l i s s u e s , r a t h e r , i t r e i n f o r c e s t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e c o n c e p t o f p o l i t i c a l s e n s i t i v i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e ; . 7 Keohane and Nye, 1977, p. 12. 8 Keohane and Nye, 1977, p. 131 5 a t a modest c o s t i n c r e a s e . _ A s w i t c h t o a n o t h e r s o u r c e o f o i l , o r o f e n e r g y , would be a p o l i c y change i n d i c a t i v e o f low v u l n e r a b i l i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . 9 V u l n e r a b i l i t y might be a c o n d i t i o n o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s (as i n t h e c a s e o f J a p a n , w h i c h h a s no o i l r e s e r v e s ) t o r i t m i g h t r e f l e c t s o c i o p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s (such as t h e A m e r i c a n s ' r e l u c t a n c e t o a l t e r t h e i r o i l - c o n s u m p t i v e l i f e s t y l e ) . 1 0 The key a s p e c t o f v u l n e r a b i l t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i s t i m e ; 1 g i v e n a r e a s o n a b l e t i m e p e r i o d , i s i t p o s s i b l e f o r an a c t o r t o r e d u c e t h e c o s t s e x t e r n a l l y i mposed by c h a n g i n g h i s p o l i c y . V u l n e r a b i l i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e f o c u s e s on w h i c h a c t o r s e t s t h e r u l e s o f t h e game.11 Complex i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i n c o n t e m p o r a r y w o r l d p o l i t i c s d e r i v e s f r o m t h e a s y m m e t r i e s and p e r m u t a t i o n s of dependence and i n d e p e n d e n c e - any s t a t e i s l i k e l y t o be r e l a t i v e l y d e p e n d e n t i n some r e s o u r c e s o r i s s u e s , i n d e p e n d e n t i n o t h e r s , and t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s a r e l i k e l y t o be a s y m m e t r i c a l a s w e l l as b e i n g c h a r a c t e r i z e d by v a r y i n g d e g r e e s o f s e n s i t i v i t y ; a n d / p r v u l n e r a b i l i t y , . W orld p o l i t i c s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by c o m p l e x i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e has t h e f o l l o w i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : 1,. M u l t i p l e c h a n n e l s c o n n e c t s o c i e t i e s , f r o m f o r m a l ( g o v e r n m e n t a l ) t o i n f o r m a l 9 A s t a t e may i m p o r t l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f o i l when i t I s a v a i l a b l e t o t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f a q u a n l i t a t i v e s u p e r i o r i t y o f t h e import;. F o r example, t h e U.S., might i m p o r t low s u l p h u r c r u d e o i l e v e n t h o u g h h e r own r e s e r v e s o f c r u d e a r e l a r g e i n o r d e r t o t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f t h e f a c t t h a t low s u l p h u r c r u d e o i l c a n be r e f i n e d more c h e a p l y t o meet t h e U.S.. e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o t e c t i o n s t a n d a r d . i »o Keohane and Nye, 1977, p. 14... »* Keohane and Nye, 1977, p. 15. i 6 (personal, business) levels,, 2. There i s an absence of hierarchy among issues. M i l i t a r y security does not dominate the agenda* 3. M i l i t a r y force i s not used by governments toward other governments within the region or on the issues when complex interdependence p r e v a i l s * 1 2 The s t a t e - c e n t r i c model views states as monolithic actors with policy formulated by a small group of decision makers. P o l i t i c a l l y important contacts between states occur at the highest l e v e l of government.. The contemporary world does not operate in that fashion exclusively. Transnational r e l a t i o n s (that i s , transgovernmental and transnational contacts) have led to durable connections between parts of d i f f e r e n t s o c i e t i e s ; the growth of this phenomenon has resulted i n the increase i n t e r n a t i o n a l interdependence. A government's p o l i c y decisions often emerge from p o l i t i c a l interplay between the c o n f l i c t i n g i nterests of i t s constituent bureaus, i t s national corporations, and other s o c i e t a l groups.* 3 Governmental domestic policy can be influenced from foreign transnational actors as well. For example, Mid-East t e r r o r i s t a c t i v i t i e s contributed to the establishment of t i g h t security procedures at many of the world's airports. In some cases, the analogous bureaus of two or more governments might conspire against t h e i r respective foreign ministries over policy matters.. . For example, the agriculture ministries of EEC nations often c o n f l i c t with t h e i r respective national governments on 1 2 Keohane and Nye, 1977, p. 24-5. 1 3 Only i n extreme c r i s e s , such as the Cuban missile c r i s i s , are state decisions made by small groups.. 7 a g r i c u l t u r a l p o l i c y . Thus the s t a t e , as seen from the p e r s p e c t i v e of t r a n s n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s and interdependence, i s no longer m o n o l i t h i c . Complex interdependence i s an i d e a l paradigm which w i l l not apply t o every s i t u a t i o n . Most cases probably f a l l i n between the c l a s s i c a l model and t h i s a l t e r n a t i v e world p o l i t i c s paradigm. Computer trade i s an i s s u e area where the proponents of the two models c l a s h . H o p e f u l l y , the f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r s w i l l show why complex interdependence o f f e r s more i n s i g h t on t h i s i s s u e . Computer t r a d e i s the type of phenomenon which has i n s p i r e d Keohane and Nye to formulate t h e i r a l t e r n a t i v e model. The i n v e n t i o n of computers i n the l a t e 1940's and the : growth (mushrooming might be a more i l l u m i n a t i n g d e s c r i p t i o n ) of t r a d e i n computer equipment roughly p a r a l l e l the growth of the p e r c e p t i o n t h a t the s t a t e - c e n t r i c model was not e n t i r e l y adequate. The c h o i c e of the wrong con c e p t u a l model of world p o l i t i c s can have d i s a s t e r o u s e f f e c t s on p o l i c y outcome; the French computer i n d u s t r y i s r e f e r r e d to above. The G a u l l i s t post-WWII French p o l i c y was formulated on t r a d i t i o n a l great power i d e a l s . The French plans i n c l u d e d the development of an independent n u c l e a r c a p a b i l i t y , the f o r c e de frappev The United S t a t e s government sought t o h i n d e r the p r o l i f e r a t i o n of n u c l e a r weapons to France by r e f u s i n g t o allow O.S.-based m u l t i n a t i o n a l f i r m s to s e l l powerful computing equipment to them,. The French responded to the American p o l i c y (the two purchase deals 8 i n v o l v e d IBM-Europe i n 1963, and CDC i n 1965) by a t t e m p t i n g t o keep t h e F r e n c h c omputer f i r m s a l l - F r e n c h : f i r s t by d e n y i n g t h e e s t a b l i s h e d Compaqnie des. M a c h i n e s . : B u l l p e r m i s s i o n t o s e l l 20% o f i t s s t o c k t o t h e U.S. G e n e r a l E l e c t r i c Company (1963) , and s e c o n d , by a t t e m p t i n g t o o r g a n i z e t h e F r e n c h computer f i r m s ( e x c l u d i n g what r e m a i n e d o f M a c h i n e s B u l l ) u n d e r government d i r e c t i o n i n t o t h e Compaqnie I n t e r n a t i o n a l e , p o u r 1 ' I n f o r m a t i g u e ( 1 9 6 5 ) . S e r i o u s f i n a n c i a l p r o b l e m s a l l o w e d GE t o t a k e o v e r 66% o f CMB's s t o c k i n 1964 d e s p i t e t h e F r e n c h g o v e r n m e n t ' s e a r l i e r p o s i t i o n (GE-MB became C o m p a q n i e ^ H o n e y w e l l i - B u l l i n 1970 when GE s o l d i t s d a t a p r o c e s s i n g b u s i n e s s t o H o n e y w e l l ) ; and C I I e v e n t u a l l y f o u n d e r e d d u r i n g an a t t e m p t w i t h o t h e r E u r o p e a n c o m p a n i e s t o b u i l d an a l l - E u r o p e a n computer f i r m . The n e t r e s u l t was t h a t i n 1976 a merger between C I I and CHB l e f t H o n e y w e l l C o r p o r a t i o n w i t h 47% o f t h e s t o c k o f C I I -H o n e y w e l l / B u l l , * 4 and t h e most p o w e r f u l CII-H/B c o m p u t e r s a r e H o n e y w e l l d e s i g n s . T r a n s f e r o f t e c h n o l o g y between t h e West and t h e S o v i e t b l o c ( e i t h e r l a t h e f o r m o f a c o m p l e t e m a n u f a c t u r i n g t e c h n o l o g y as i n a t u r n - k e y p l a n t , 1 5 o r as embodied i n e n d - p r o d u c t s ) seems l * The i n t e r e s t e d r e a d e r can f o l l o w t h e d e t a i l s o f t h i s s e r i e s o f e v e n t s i n Y-.S. Hu, T h e ^ I m p a c t ^ o f „ U > S . :Investment i n Europe,: .a C a s e S t u d y - of t h e A u t o i g b i l e and Computer. I n d u s t r i e s (New Y o r k : P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1 9 7 3 ) , p.. 32-150. See a l s o Moody's I n d u s t r i a l M a n u a l, 1977, and Economist> 257, November 15,1975, p. 48. * 5 A ' t u r n - k e y ' p l a n t i s d e l i v e r e d t o t h e c u s t o m e r by t h e b u i l d e r c o m p l e t e i n a l l r e s p e c t s , w i t h a l l e q u i p m e n t and p r o c e d u r e s s u p p l i e d . C o n t r a c t o r s w i l l o f t e n t r a i n t h e work f o r c e t o use t h e new p l a n t , so t h e c u s t o m e r h a s o n l y t o s u p p l y w o r k e r s t o b e g i n p r o d u c t i o n . 9 t o e x h i b i t t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f complex i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . The s u b j e c t of t h i s p a p e r i s a s m a l l but i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f t h e i n t e r - b l o c t e c h n o l o g y t r a n s f e r i s s u e : computer t r a d e * C o m p u t e r i z a t i o n i s an i n c r e a s i n g l y p e r v a s i v e f a c t i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s a s w e l l as i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s . Computer t r a d e between f r i e n d l y n a t i o n s i s c o n s i d e r e d n o r m a l b u s i n e s s and i s o f c o n s i d e r a b l e m a g n i t u d e , e s t i m a t e d a t $10 b i l l i o n p e r y e a r . 1 6 Computer t r a d e between a d v e r s a r y n a t i o n s , such a s t h e U.S. and t h e USSB, i s c o n t r o v e r s i a l . C o m p u t ers c o n t r i b u t e t o m i l i t a r y s y s t e m s , a s w e l l as e c o n o m i c s y s t e m s ; t h u s many a n a l y s t s i n t h e West f e a r t h a t t h e S o v i e t s m ight t u r n i m p o r t e d c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s from n o n - m i l i t a r y u s e s t o m i l i t a r i l y a g g r e s s i v e p u r p o s e s * . Computer t r a d e c o n t r i b u t e s s u r p l u s e s t o t h e U«S,. b a l a n c e o f t r a d e c a l c u l a t i o n , so t h e r e a r e s t r o n g c o m m e r c i a l and g o v e r n m e n t a l e c o n o m i c f o r c e s f a v o r i n g i t * 1 6 B * . 0 . . S z u p r o w i c z , "The W o r l d ' s Top 50 Computer I m p o r t M a r k e t s , " D a t a m a t i o n , 24, No. 3 (1 978), p. 153. . 10 CHAPTER 2 POLITICAL ASPECTS OF COMPUTER TRADE At t h e end of WWII most A m e r i c a n a n a l y s t s v i e w e d t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a s t h e n e x t t h r e a t t o s e c u r i t y , . The p o s t - w a r e n v i r o n m e n t was s e e n as one o f s t r u g g l e on i d e o l o g i c a l , e c o n o m i c , and g e o g r a p h i c a l d i m e n s i o n s ; T h e . S o v i e t g o vernment was s e e n as a r e p r e s s i v e f o r c e w h i c h s o u g h t t o d o m i n a t e (even c o l o n i z e ) E u r o p e and America w h i l e a t t h e same t i m e o p p r e s s i n g i t s own p e o p l e s . I t was t h o u g h t t h a t t h e b e s t d e f e n s e a g a i n s t t h i s t h r e a t was f o r t h e ' p e a c e l o v i n g * West t o band t o g e t h e r and t o d e t e r a g g r e s s i o n by t h e m a i n t e n a n c e o f a m i l i t a r y f o r c e w i t h s u c h a m a r g i n o f power a s t o e n s u r e t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f any enemy so f o o l i s h a s t o s t a r t a war. A n y t h i n g which c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e enemy's a b i l i t y t o wage war was seen as a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o a r e d u c t i o n o f t h e margin o f s a f e t y , ; NATO was formed as a m i l i t a r y r e s p o n s e t o t h e p e r c e p t i o n o f a m o n o l i t h i c communist enemy;;. The U.S. D e f e n s e D e p a r t m e n t s o u g h t t o impose e c o n o m i c s a n c t i o n s i n t h e f o r m of e x p o r t c o n t r o l s , f o l l o w i n g t h e r a t i o n a l e t h a t : U*S. d e f e n s e p o l i c y p l a c e s p r i m a r y e m p h a s i s on d e t e r r e n c e ; t h e s u c c e s s o f d e t e r r e n c e r e s t s on a m a r g i n o f m i l i t a r y o r t e c h n o l o g i c a l advantage;,,;; t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s h o u l d n o t , t h e r e f o r e , s u p p l y i t s a d v e r s a r i e s t h r o u g h t h e c h a n n e l s o f t r a d e w i t h t h e w h e r e w i t h a l t o r e d u c e t h a t m a r g i n ; * 7 , . 1 7 R o b e r t E. K l i t g a a r d , N a t i o n a . I n s e c u r i t y , a n d E x p o r t C o n t r o l s ( S a n t a M o n i c a , CA: t h e Rand C o r p o r a t i o n * R-1432-ARPA/CIEP, 1974), p. 15. . See a l s o Samuel H u n t i n g t o n , . " T r a d e T e c h n o l o g y , and L e v e r a g e : E c a n o m i c s D i p l o m a c y , " F o r e i g n P o l i c y 32 ( F a l l 1978) , p. 63. . 11 To e f f e c t c o n t r o l s , t h e O f f i c e o f E x p o r t A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U.S. Department o f Commerce, i s empowered t o a d m i n i s t e r a Commodity C o n t r o l L i s t , ( h e r e i n a f t e r , CCL),. The c o o p e r a t i o n of o t h e r f r i e n d l y W e s t e r n n a t i o n s was s o u g h t , and an agreement was r e a c h e d between t h e NATO n a t i o n s ( e x c l u d i n g I c e l a n d ) and J a p a n . * 8 The U.S. Department o f S t a t e was a b l e t o o b t a i n t h e c o o p e r a t i o n o f t h e s e n a t i o n s t h r o u g h v a r i o u s e c o n o m i c p r e s s u r e s ( p r i m a r i l y the t h r e a t t o withdraw M a r s h a l l P l a n f u n d s ) b u t t h e r e s u l t i n g C o n s u l t a t i v e G r o u p -C o o r d i n a t i n g Committee (CoCom) was n e v e r f o r m a l i z e d by a t r e a t y . 1 9 The U . S . S t a t e D e p a r t m e n t i s a b l e , t o e n c o u r a g e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n CoCom, t h o u g h t h e mechanism i s l e s s e f f e c t i v e t o d a y , b e c a u s e CoCom i s so c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h NATO, and t h r o u g h t h e e x e r c i s e o f e x t r a t e r r i t o r i a l c o n t r o l s o v e r p a t e n t s and l i c e n s e s owned by i t s m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s . 2 0 E x p o r t c o n t r o l o f f i c i a l s c l a i m t h a t f e a r o f a major S o v i e t t e c h n o l o g i c a l b r e a k t h r o u g h i s t h e major r e a s o n f o r t h e c o n t i n u e d e x i s t e n c e o f e x p o r t c o n t r o l s . 2 1 1 8 H u n t i n g t o n , p,. 65n. 1 9 K l i t g a a r d , p; 2. 2 0 The U.S. e x e r c i s e s • e x t r a t e r r i t o r i a l * c o n t r o l o v e r m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s which have t h e i r home ba s e i n A m e r i c a by e n f o r c i n g U.S. law ( p a r t i c u l a r l y a n t i - t r u s t l a w , and t h e T r a d i n g With t h e Enemies A c t ) on t h e f o r e i g n s u b s i d i a r i e s o f t h o s e c o m p a n i e s . . In t h e F r e n c h c a s e o f 1963, t h e IBM C o r p o r a t i o n s E u r o p e a n s u b s i d i a r y was p r o h i b i t e d f r o m s e l l i n g h i g h powered c o m p u t e r s t o the F r e n c h n u c l e a r weapon program on t h e g r o u n d s t h a t s u c h a s a l e c o n t r a v e n e d p r o v i s i o n s o f t h e U i S . r S o v i e t T e s t Ban T r e a t y . . 12 The o r i g i n a l l i s t s o f r e s t r i c t e d g oods were q u i t e l o n g , 2 2 and r e f l e c t e d t h e 0.Si p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e n a t u r e o f t h e S o v i e t g overnment. F o r example, t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e embargo on p l a s t i c combs ( u n t i l 1954) and s u g a r f r o s t e d b r e a k f a s t c e r e a l s ( u n t i l 1966) was " b e c a u s e t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s u c h i t e m s was t h o u g h t t o s t i f l e t h e w i l l t o r e v o l t . 1 , 2 3 In r e c e n t t i m e s , t h e g r o w i n g economic s t r e n g t h and i n d e p e n d e n c e o f CoCom p a r t n e r n a t i o n s has l e d t o s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n o f t h e number o f r e s t r i c t e d g oods.. The l i s t s a r e now composed o f t h o s e . g o o d s w h i c h a r e t h o u g h t t o have a d i r e c t and s i g n i f i c a n t m i l i t a r y c o n t r i b u t i o n and which t h e 'enemy* i s n o t a b l e t o p r o d u c e o r o b t a i n on h i s own.. Examples a r e some v e r y l a r g e c o m p u t e r s , s o p h i s t i c a t e d e l e c t r o n i c s m a n u f a c t u r i n g e q u i p m e n t and t e c h n o l o g y , m i l i t a r y hardware and r a r e m i n e r a l s . However, c o m p e t i t i o n among W e s t e r n n a t i o n s f o r ex p a n d e d m a r k e t s h a s e r o d e d t h e e f f i c a c y o f t h e CoCom c o n t r o l s t r u c t u r e . The d e s i r e t o use t r a d e f o r p o l i t i c a l p u r p o s e s has been r e f l e c t e d i n n e g o t i a t i o n s on ' e x c e p t i o n r e q u e s t s ' 2 4 r e s u l t i n g i n t h e o c c a s i o n a l a p p r o v a l o f s u c h p r e v i o u s l y u n t h i n k a b l e t r a n s a c t i o n s as t h e s a l e o f H a r r i e r a i r c r a f t t o t h e P e o p l e s ' 2 1 K l i t g a a r d , p. 16* I t i s n o t c l e a r where t h i s b r e a k t h r o u g h would o c c u r ; p r e s u m a b l y i t would r e s u l t i n sudden and d e f i n i t e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y s u p e r i o r i t y . 2 2 Henry R. Nau, T e c h n o l o g y . T r a n s f e r and,O.S. F o r e i g n P o l i c y (New York ; P r a e g e r P u b l i s h i n g Company, 1976) , p,; 29,; . The CCL l i s t i s t h e l a r g e r , as i t i n c l u d e s t h e CoCom l i s t as a s u b s e t . The c u r r e n t CoCom l i s t c o n t a i n s a b o u t 150 i t e m s * . 2 3 K l i t g a a r d , p. 14. 2 4 An ' e x c e p t i o n r e q u e s t ' i s a r e q u e s t by a CoCom member n a t i o n t o waive t h e p r o h i b i t i o n on a s p e c i f i c s a l e . C o m puting equipment a c c o u n t s f o r t h e l a r g e s t s i n g l e s o u r c e o f e x c e p t i o n r e q u e s t s . 13 B e p u b l i c o f C h i n a , 2 s T h i s s a l e i s s e e n t o be s t r a t e g i c a l l y d e s i r a b l e b e c a u s e a s t r o n g C h i n a w i l l be m o r e . a b l e t o o f f s e t S o v i e t power, p r e s u m a b l y c a u s i n g t h e R u s s i a n s t o e a s e o f f m i l i t a r i l y i n Europe,. U.S. i n d u s t r i e s a p p l y p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e on t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s government t o r e l a x i t s u n i l a t e r a l t r a d e r e s t r i c t i o n s so t h a t t h e y may compete f o r g r o w i n g E a s t e r n markets,. The U.S, has an a c k n o w l e d g e d l e a d e r s h i p i n l a r g e computer s y s t e m s , and t h e i n d u s t r y would l i k e t o be a b l e t o f i n d a s many c u s t o m e r s a s p o s s i b l e . The m a g n i t u d e o f t h e l a r g e s t c o mputer s y s t e m s i n t e r m s o f c o m p u t i n g power and c o s t l i m i t s t h e m a r k e t t o v e r y l a r g e , r i c h c u s t o m e r s . I n many c a s e s , t h e f u n c t i o n s p e r f o r m e d by v e r y l a r g e c o m p u t e r s c a n be d u p l i c a t e d by s y s t e m s o r n e t w o r k s o f s m a l l e r m a c h i n e s * 2 6 The U.S. t e c h n o l o g i c a l a d v a n t a g e can t h e r e f o r e be u n d e r m i n e d by o t h e r v e n d o r s t a t e s w i t h s t r o n g computer i n d u s t r i e s and l e s s s t r i n g e n t e x p o r t c o n t r o l s * 2 7 II EconomlstT"270. F e b r u a r y 24, 1979, p. 11. O t h e r \ p r o p o s e d s a l e s t o t h e P e o p l e s R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a which i n v o l v e e x c e p t i o n r e g u e s t s i n c l u d e F r e n c h p r e c i s i o n g u i d e d weapons and a huge c o m p u t e r d e a l , $69 m i l l i o n worth o f CDC C y b e r e q u i p m e n t . . 2 6 U s u a l l y t h i s i n v o l v e s a h i g h e r c o s t . . I n t h e U*S., n e t w o r k s o f l e s s p o w e r f u l c o m p u t e r s may be c h e a p e r t h a n one l a r g e c o m p u t e r b e c a u s e o f the g r o w i n g 'used c o m p u t e r ' b u s i n e s s . NASA employed used c o m p u t e r s i n t h e Venus s p a c e p r o b e e f f o r t b e c a u s e t h e c o s t o f l e a s i n g new equipment was t o o high;; , See J . . B e e l e r , "NASA R e c o m m i s i o n s O l d SIGMA 5 War H o r s e s , " Computer w o r l d 13 F e b r u a r y 26, (1979, p. 9. 2 7 The f a c t t h a t t h e CCL l i s t i s more e x t e n s i v e t h a n t h e CoCom l i s t p l a c e s some U.S* . i n d u s t r y a t a r e l a t i v e d i s a d v a n t a g e w i t h r e s p e c t t o o t h e r NATO n a t i o n s * I n f a c t , t h e l a r g e s t Western s u p p l i e r of c o m p u t e r s t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i s I n t e r n a t i o n a l C omputers, L i m i t e d (ICL) o f B r i t i a n * The S o v i e t s have p u r c h a s e d c o m p u t e r s from 35 d i f f e r e n t W e s t e r n f i r m s * r See A• C. S u t t o n , W e s t ern .Technology and S o v i e t E c o n o m i c Development ( S t a n f o r d , Hoover I n s t i t u t i o n P r e s s , 1973), p. 323. . 14 The U.S. Commerce Department o f t e n s i d e s w i t h t h e b u s i n e s s community on n e g o t i a t i o n s o v e r e x c e p t i o n r e q u e s t s . I n t h e c a s e o f e x c e p t i o n r e q u e s t s f o r c o mputer s y s t e m s s a l e s , D e f e n s e u s u a l l y o p p o s e s , Commerce u s u a l l y i s s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e p r o p o s e d s a l e , and S t a t e i s u n d e c i d e d , u s u a l l y b a s i n g i t s r e c o m m e n d a t i o n on c u r r e n t i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l e v e n t s . T h u s , t h e s t a t e -c e n t r i c a s s u m p t i o n o f a s t a t e a c t i n g a s a u n i t i s v i o l a t e d r o u t i n e l y i n t h i s i s s u e a r e a . The p o s i t i o n of, t h e S t a t e D epartment on e a c h p r o p o s e d s a l e o v e r th e h i s t o r y o f computer t r a d e might be an i n t e r e s t i n g s t u d y . W i l l i a m N o r r i s , p r e s i d e n t o f C o n t r o l D a t a C o r p o r a t i o n , s e e s t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f e x p o r t c o n t r o l s a s a b e n e f i t t o t h e U.S. i n s e v e r a l ways* The p o t e n t i a l l y l a r g e S o v i e t m a r k e t would become more a c c e s s i b l e , which would i n c r e a s e CDC's p r o f i t and c r e a t e j o b s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . 2 8 A l s o , t h e r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t S o v i e t a c a d e m i c c o m p u t e r s c i e n t i s t s a r e of t o p q u a l i t y l e a d s N o r r i s t o b e l i e v e t h a t l e s s r e s t r i c t e d t r a d e would r e s u l t i n a b e n e f i c i a l exchange o f knowledge t h r o u g h j o i n t R & D p r o j e c t s . T h i s would b e n e f i t b o t h c o u n t r i e s b e c a u s e i t c o u l d a l l o w f o r a r e d u c t i o n o f r e s e a r c h c o s t s t h r o u g h t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f d u p l i c a t e d r e s e a r c h . T h i s , he s a y s , would be:a boon t o t h e U.S. i n d u s t r y , whieh i s e x p e r i e n c i n g a r e d u c t i o n o f R & D 2 8 B. 0. S z u p r o w i c z , " W o r l d ' s Top M a r k e t s , " pp. 153-168. 15 f u n d i n g due t o t h e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e NASA moon p r o g r a m . 2 9 N o r r i s s e e s th e u l t i m a t e r e s u l t as i m p r o v e d p r o d u c t s a t l o w e r c o s t f o r a l l . 3 © A d e t a i l h e r e i l l u s t r a t e s some o f t h e c o m p l e x i t i e s i n v o l v e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f computer t r a d e . N o r r i s a s s e r t s t h a t i n c r e a s e d t r a d e would d i r e c t l y i n c r e a s e employment i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . T h i s i s not n e c e s s a r i l y t h e c a s e ; b e c a u s e t h e S o v i e t U n i o n h a s s t a n d a r d i z e d i t s e l e c t r i c a l s y s t e m a t 220 v o l t s , 50 h e r t z , c o m puters s o l d t o t h e S o v i e t s by U.S. f i r m s w i l l most l i k e l y be b u i l t by t h e f i r m ' s E u r o p e a n s u b s i d i a r y . 3 1 Thus, a l t h o u g h the t r a n s a c t i o n m ight have been n e g o t i a t e d by an A m e r i c a n - b a s e d team o f e x e c u t i v e s , t h e l a b o r i n p u t p r o b a b l y would be E u r o p e a n * I t i s n o t c l e a r e x a c t l y where t h e r e v e n u e s from s u c h t r a n s a c t i o n s a c t u a l l y flow,. F u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i s r e q u i r e d t o e s t a b l i s h t h e a c t u a l p a t h o f t h e f l o w of f u n d s , b u t i t s h o u l d be c l e a r t h a t t h e d y n a m i c s o f t h i s t y p e o f b u s i n e s s a r e more r e a d i l y p e r c e i v e d i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t r a n s n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s and i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e t h a n i n t h e model 2 9 N o r r i s n e g l e c t s t o m e n t i o n f u n d i n g f o r new programs s u c h as t h e s p a c e s h u t t l e , p e r h a p s b e c a u s e IBM w i l l be t h e s u p p l i e r f o r t h e o n - b o a r d c o m p u t e r s f o r t h e s h u t t l e . , I t i s g e n e r a l l y a c k n o w l e d g e d t h a t t h e r e has been a slowdown o f U.S._R & D s p e n d i n g . However, some o r g a n i z a t i o n s have m a i n t a i n e d h i g h l e v e l s o f R & D f u n d i n g , and i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e C a r t e r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n m i g h t t a k e s t e p s t o i m prove t h e o v e r a l l s i t u a t i o n . See J o h n Walsh, "What Can Government Do f o r I n n o v a t i o n ? " S c i e n c e , 205, J u l y 27, 1979, p. 378-80; a l s o E c o n o m i s t , 270, F e b r u a r y 3, 1979, p. 86,. 3 0 W i l l i a m N o r r i s , " H i g h T e c h n o l o g y T r a d e w i t h th e Communists", D a t a m a t i o n . 24, No*. 1 (1978), p, 99. A Rand s t u d y c o n c u r s about t h e q u a l i t y o f S o v i e t s c i e n t i s t s * . See R. T u r n and A. E. N i m i t z , C omputers and - S t r a t e g i c A d v a n t a g e : I i Computer T e c h n o l o g y i n . t h e .United,;States.;and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n { S a n t a M o n i c a ^ CA: t h e Rand C o r p o r a t i o n , R-1642, 19 7 5 ) , P- 57. . 3 1 S z u p r o w i c z , " W o r l d ' s Top M a r k e t s , " p..168. 16 o f s t a t e - t o - s t a t e c o n f r o n t a t i o n d o m i n a t e d by m i l i t a r y f o r c e . . Some p o l i t i c a l a n a l y s t s view more r e l a x e d t r a d e c o n t r o l s as a means t o t h e c r e a t i o n o f an e f f e c t i v e b a r g a i n i n g c h i p . The s t a t e d p o s i t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n P r e s i d e n t i s t h a t h i s c o u n t r y s h o u l d t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f i t s economic and t e c h n o l o g i c a l m a r g i n t o e n c o u r a g e S o v i e t ' c o o p e r a t i o n ' on t h e s o l u t i o n o f r e g i o n a l p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t s . 3 2 T h i s s o r t o f b a r g a i n m i g h t t r a d e s o p h i s t i c a t e d o i l f i e l d e q u i pment s a l e s t o t h e S o v i e t s f o r f u t u r e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y o r p o l i t i c a l r e s t r a i n t i n some t r o u b l e d a r e a o f t h e . w o r l d , s u c h as I r a n . The p o t e n t i a l o f c o m p u t e r t r a d e t o c r e a t e t h i s p o l i t i c a l l e v e r i s s u g g e s t e d by t h e S o v i e t O n i o n ' s l a c k o f s u f f i c i e n t p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y t o f i l l i t s d o m e s t i c needs f o r c o m p u t e r s , by i t s g r o w i n g e c o n o m i c p r o b l e m s ( d i s c u s s e d i n c h a p t e r 2) , and by i t s e x p r e s s e d d e s i r e t o c o m p u t e r i z e ( d i s c u s s e d i n c h a p t e r 3 ) . F o r t h e s e r e a s o n s she s e e k s s y s t e m s f r o m t h e W e s t . 3 3 C o m p u t e r s c a n be s e e n as a r e s o u r c e , t h e . g u a l i t a t i v e l y s u p e r i o r s o u r c e o f which i s c o n t r o l l e d by the U n i t e d S t a t e s . The S o v i e t s p r e f e r A m e r i c a n t e c h n o l o g y as t h e most s o p h i s t i c a t e d and c o s t - e f f e c t i v e , b u t w i l l s e e k a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e s i f U.S. p r o d u c t s a r e made u n a v a i l a b l e . The r e c e n t c a n c e l l a t i o n o f t h e s a l e o f a U n i v a c 1110 s y s t e m by P r e s i d e n t C a r t e r h a s f o r c e d t h e S o v i e t s t o s e e k a computer f r o m a F r e n c h 3 2 J o h n R i s e r , "What Gap? Which Gap?", i n F o r e i g n P o l i c y , 32 (Autumn 1978), p. .91. 3 3 A f u r t h e r m o t i v a t i o n m i g h t be t h e l e s s t h a n a d e q u a t e s t a t e o f S o v i e t s o f t w a r e . T h i s t o p i c w i l l be examined i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l i n a l a t e r c h a p t e r . 17 company, C I I - H o n e y w e l l / B u l l , 3 * The O n i v a c d e a l was t o have been w o r t h $10 m i l l i o n , a s u b s t a n t i a l l o s t s a l e f o r t h e S p e r r y -O n i v a c Company. The s u b s t i t u t e s y s t e m , an IRIS 80, was o r i g i n a l l y d e s i g n e d by H o n e y w e l l , and w i l l n e t t h e F r e n c h company w h i c h m a n u f a c t u r e s i t some $18 m i l l i o n . 3 5 Thus t h e p o l i t i c a l r a m i f i c a t i o n s o f t r a d e i n h i g h t e c h n o l o g y c o m m o d i t i e s s u c h as l a r g e c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s r a n g e from t h e i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e a p p l i e d by s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t g r o u p s l o b b y i n g d o m e s t i c g o v e r n m e n t s , t o t h e e f f e c t s on r e l a t i o n s among NATO a l l i e s , and r e l a t i o n s between a d v e r s a r y s t a t e s ; t h i s o c c u r s i n b i l a t e r a l and m u l t i l a t e r a l p e r m u t a t i o n s . M i l i t a r y power has no d i r e c t b e a r i n g on t h e i s s u e , e x c e p t as t h e i n t a n g i b l e s p e c u l a t i v e b a s i s f o r o b j e c t i o n by c e r t a i n g r o u p s w i t h i n s o c i e t i e s . The i s s u e o f c o m p u t e r t r a d e seems o u t s i d e t h e bounds o f s t a t e - c e n t r i c t h e o r y , and y e t i s d e f i n i t e l y a f f e c t e d by p o l i t i c a l mechanisms c o n s i d e r e d by s u c h t h e o r y . 3 * s e e page 7, above,. Note t h a t CII-H/B i s n o t p u r e l y F r e n c h * I n t h e o r y , P r e s i d e n t C a r t e r might have t h e power t o r e s t r i c t t h i s t r a n s a c t i o n too,; but t h e f a c t t h a t he h a s n ' t u n d e r s c o r e s t h e s y m b o l i c n a t u r e o f t h e O n i v a c c a n c e l l a t i o n , and t h e n e c e s s i t y t o c o n s i d e r t h e F r e n c h r e a c t i o n , 3 5 D e b o r a h S h a p e l y , "New C h i p s Shed L i g h t on S o v i e t E l e c t r o n i c s " , S c i e n c e 240, ( 1 9 7 9 ) , p. 283. A l s o , i t can be assumed t h a t due t o t h e l a r g e s h a r e o f CII-H/B which H o n e y w e l l owns, t h a t some o f t h e p r o f i t from t h e s a l e w i l l f i n d i t s way back t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . . 18 CHAPTER 3 THE POLITICAL MILIEAU: BILATERAL DEPENDENCE Dependence and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s The p o l i t i c a l d i m e n s i o n s o f computer t r a d e can be c o n s i d e r e d i n t e r m s o f t h e complex i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e p a r a d i g m o f Keohane and N y e . 3 6 I t i s assummed t h a t i n t e r d e p e n d e n c i e s ( o r r e c i p r o c a l d e p e n d e n c i e s ) e x i s t . I t i s n o t t h e i n t e n t h e r e t o p r o v e t h a t t h e U.S. i s s p e c i f i c a l l y d e p e n d e n t on any one c o u n t r y , o r f o r any s p e c i f i c commodity. T h i s p a p e r assumes t h a t t h e U.S. e x i s t s i n a w o r l d which i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e among n a t i o n s . A few c i r c u m s t a n t i a l b i t s o f e v i d e n c e a r e o f f e r e d , n o t as p r o o f o f dependence, b u t r a t h e r , as i l l u s t r a t i o n s o f i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . W h i l e i t i s u n u s u a l t o c o n c e i v e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s as d e p e n d e n t on t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , the f a c t i s t h a t i n a v e r y b r o a d s e n s e A m e r i c a i s d e p e n d e n t on f o r e i g n n a t i o n s f o r raw m a t e r i a l s and a l s o f o r m a r k e t s f o r i t s m a n u f a c t u r e d goods. Many o f t h e s e raw m a t e r i a l s a r e p r e s e n t i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n o r a r e under S o v i e t c o n t r o l * The S o v i e t s , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , a r e a l m o s t s e l f s u f f i c i e n t i n raw m a t e r i a l s ( a l t h o u g h s h o r t a g e s i n p r o d u c t i o n o f some c r i t i c a l r e s o u r c e s s u c h a s o i l a r e f o r e c a s t f o r t h e n e a r f u t u r e ) , b u t seem t o be u n a b l e t o f i l l t h e i r d o m e s t i c n e e d s f o r c e r t a i n k i n d s o f m a n u f a c t u r e d g o o d s . 3 7 3 6 Keohane and Nye, 1977, c h a p t e r s 1 and 2;. 3 7 A g e n e r a l d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r o f t h e S o v i e t economy i s f o u n d i n c h a p t e r 1 o f Roy A. Medvedev, On S o c i a l i s t Democracy (New Y o r k : W. W. N o r t o n 6 Co., I n c * , 1 9 7 5 ) . 19 I n an a r t i c l e w h i c h compares t h e U*S, , t h e U.S.S., R. , and t h e P e o p l e s ' R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a i n t e r m s o f r e s o u r c e l e v e l o f s t r a t e g i c m a t e r i a l s , B. 0...Szuprowicz f i n d s t h a t t h e U.S. i s de p e n d e n t on i m p o r t s t o s u p p l y o v e r 50% o f i t s n e e d s f o r a t l e a s t 19 b a s i c i n d u s t r i a l r e s o u r c e s . The s u p p l y o f many o f t h e s e m a t e r i a l s v i t a l t o U. S. , i n d u s t r y - g o l d , aluminum, b e r y l l i u m , chromium, germanium* t i n , t a n t a l u m , z i r c o n i u m , i n d i u m - i s c o n c e n t r a t e d i n t h e S o v i e t b l o c ( i n c l u d i n g c e r t a i n " . . ^ M a r x i s t A f r i c a n n a t i o n s * , , ; " ) . 3 « S z u p r o w i c z i s a l a r m e d by t h e S o v i e t i n t e r e s t i n t h e p o l i t i c a l l y u n s t a b l e r e g i o n s o f s o u t h e r n A f r i c a where many o f t h e s e c r i t i c a l r e s o u r c e s abound. I f t h e s e n a t i o n s come un d e r S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e , t h e S o v i e t s would have v i r t u a l c o n t r o l o v e r a dozen o r more m i n e r a l s e s s e n t i a l t o e l e c t r o n i c s m a n u f a c t u r e . I f t h i s comes t o p a s s , t h e d i r e c t U.S. d e pendence on t h e S o v i e t a n i o n would be c l e a r c u t . As i t s t a n d s , t h e S o v i e t s a r e a b l e t o e x e r t c o n s i d e r a b l e i n f l u e n c e o v e r p r i c e s o f many c r i t i c a l m i n e r a l s . A l s o , t h e U.S..needs o v e r s e a s m a r k e t s f o r i t s m a n u f a c t u r e d g o o d s . H i s t o r i c a l l y , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t r a d e b a l a n c e showed a s u r p l u s . The r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t o f U.S,. dependence on f o r e i g n s o u r c e s f o r c r u d e o i l and t h e i n c r e a s e d c o m p e t i t i o n from s t r o n g E u r o p e a n and J a p a n e s e e c o n o m i e s have r e v e r s e d t h i s t r e n d . However, t h e co m p u t e r t r a d e s e c t o r o f t h e A m e r i c a n b a l a n c e o f t r a d e p i c t u r e r e t u r n e d a s u r p l u s o f some $1.54 b i l l i o n i n 3 8 B. 0, S z u p r o w i c z , " S o v i e t Sgueeze on S t r a t e g i c M a t e r i a l s " . D a t a m a t i o n . 24. No; 10 (19781. 147-154. 20 1 9 7 6 . 3 « The i n t e r n a t i o n a l c l i m a t e i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d as • i n t e r d e p e n d e n t ' by p o l i t i c i a n s and government o f f i c i a l s o f many n a t i o n s * 4 0 The use o f t h e term • i n t e r d e p e n c e * by t h e s e i n d i v i d u a l s c a n n o t be c o n s t r u e d t o be t h e o f f i c i a l p o l i c y , n o r c a n i t be c o n s t r u e d t o have t h e same a n a l y t i c a l meaning as Keohane and Nye d e f i n e , i n t h e i r complex i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e p a r a d i g m , b u t i t i n d i c a t e s c o g n i z a n c e o f a s t a t e o f a f f a i r s d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e . c o n f l i c t u a l model o f t h e c l a s s i c a l r e a l i s t s . F i n a l l y , t h e e x i s t e n c e o f h u n d r e d s o f b i l l i o n s o f E u r o d o l l a r s t h r o u g h o u t t h e w o r l d i n p r i v a t e h a n d s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e 0,S. i s v u l n e r a b l e t o p o t e n t i a l damage t o i t s economy w h i c h t r a d i t i o n a l m i l i t a r y t o o l s o f s t a t e c r a f t a r e p o w e r l e s s t o c o n t r o l . Dependence and t h e S o v i e t O n i o n The S o v i e t O n i o n i s a l s o n o r m a l l y c o n s i d e r e d an i n d e p e n d e n t s t a t e . To f i n d t h e s o u r c e s o f S o v i e t d e p e n d e n c e , i t i s u s e f u l t o b r i e f l y l o o k a t t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e S o v i e t economy i n t e r m s o f t h e s o u r c e s o f i t s p a s t growth r a t e and 3 9 f r o m S z u p r o w i c z , " W o r l d ' s Top M a r k e t s , " p.. . 155* P a r t i a l d a t a f r o m t h e O.S* Department o f Commerce f o r f o r e i g n t r a d e i n 1977 ( t h e most r e c e n t a v a i l a b l e f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h ) show an i n c r e a s e o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 17% i n 0,S. e x p o r t s of a c c o u n t i n g and c o m p u t i n g e q u i p m e n t . 4 0 O.S. C o n g r e s s , House Committee on I n t e r n a t i o n a l Be l a t i on s, S c i e n c e , Technology,, :a.nd_. D i p l o m a c y i n t h e Age o f I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . by F r a n k l y n H u d d l e and Warren J o h n s t o n , C o n g r e s s i o n a l fiesearch S e r v i c e , L i b r a r y o f C o n g r e s s (Washington, D.C..: GPO, 1976), p. 274-6. 21 p o t e n t i a l sources of f u t u r e growth, B e r l i n e r and Holzman d i s t i n g u i s h between q u a l i t a t i v e and q u a n t i t a t i v e sources of growth. Q u a n t i t a t i v e sources of growth are those i n c r e a s e s i n the b a s i c f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n ( c a p i t a l , l a b o r , l a n d ) , while g u a l i t a t i v e sources of growth are those which produce improvement i n f a c t o r performance ( p r o d u c t i v i t y of l a b o r , higher r e t u r n on c a p t i a l investment) . The S o v i e t p a t t e r n of development has been t o depend on the q u a n t i t a t i v e sources of growth,, High growth r a t e s were maintained by l a r g e annual i n c r e a s e s i n q u a n t i t i e s of the f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n , with l e s s regard f o r improvement of the p r o d u c t i v i t y of the f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n . The f a c t o r s of production are r e l a t i v e l y f i n i t e (there i s only so much l a n d , c a p i t a l , or so many workers at a given time, and the l e v e l s are not r e a d i l y changed to f i t the needs of planners) ; thus, as the authors p o i n t out, "the p o s s i b i l i t y of m a i n t a i n i n g past r a t e s of i n c r e a s e of the q u a n t i t i e s of the f a c t o r s tends to d i m i n i s h . " 4 1 T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t a d e c l i n e of the growth r a t e seems q u i t e l i k e l y f o r an economy which n e g l e c t s the q u a l i t a t i v e sources of growth. Pros p e c t s f o r continued growth of the S o v i e t economy from q u a n t i t a t i v e sources are s l i m s i n c e the i n c r e a s e of the f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n has slowed. Labor shortaqes seem imminent, as i t has been noted t h a t the S o v i e t b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n e d 4 1 Joseph B e r l i n e r and F r a n k l y n Holzman, "The S o v i e t Economy: Domestic and I n t e r n a t i o n a l I s s u e s , " i n William E. G r i f f i t h , ed., The S o v i e t Empire: Expansion and ;Detente (Lexington, MA: D. C. Heath and Company, 1976), p* 90-22 d r a m a t i c a l l y * The.number o f b i r t h s f o r t h e p e r i o d 1965-69 was o n l y 58% o f t h e f i g u r e f o r t h e f i v e y e a r p e r i o d f r o m 1 9 5 5 - 5 9 . 4 2 T h i s means t h a t t h e number o f new w o r k e r s e n t e r i n g t h e work-age g r o u p f r o m 1981 t o 1985 w i l l be s u b s t a n t i a l l y s m a l l e r t h a n t h e number o f p e r s o n s which e n t e r e d t h e work-age g r o u p d u r i n g 1971-75. S o v i e t p r a c t i c e i n t h e p a s t has been t o e n c o u r a g e e x c e s s a g r i c u l t u r a l l a b o r t o move t o t h e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r . T h i s s o u r c e c a n n o t p r o v i d e any a d d i t i o n a l i n c r e m e n t s ( b a r r i n g s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e s i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e c o l l e c t i v i s t a g r a r i a n s e c t o r ) , n o r can t h e S o v i e t l e a d e r s h i p e x p e c t t o i n c r e a s e t h e number o f women i n t h e l a b o r p o o l . Thus, B e r l i n e r and Holzman s t a t e " e c o n o m i c g r o w t h w i l l no l o n g e r b e n e f i t t o t h e same e x t e n t a s i n t h e p a s t f r o m l a r g e a n n u a l i n c r e m e n t s o f l a b o r . " * 3 Economic growth r a t e i n c r e a s e s f r o m th e o t h e r f a c t o r s o f p r o d u c t i o n a r e a l s o a p p a r e n t l y i n d e c l i n e * Those n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s which were n e a r t o c i t i e s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n have been e x t e n s i v e l y e x p l o i t e d . . The v a s t r e s e r v e s o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s i n t h e S o v i e t Union a r e f o u n d i n t h e remote and h a r s h e n v i r o n m e n t s o f S i b e r i a and C e n t r a l A s i a . U n e x p l o i t e d a r a b l e • 2 A. K v a s h a , " A , S c i e n t i s t * s F o r e c a s t : The G e n e r a t i o n o f t h e Y e a r 2000", L i t e r a t u r n y a g a z e t a (March 22, 1972), p i . 1 0 , c i t e d i n M o r t o n S c h w a r t z , T h e - F o r e i g n P o l i c y o f t h e USSR: D o m e s t i c F a c t o r s ( E n c i n o , CA: D i c k e n s o n P u b l i s h i n g C o l , 1 9 7 5 ) , p. 12. 4 3 B e r l i n e r and Holzman, p.. 90.., See a l s o G r e g o r y Grossman, "The E c o n o m i c s o f D e t e n t e and A m e r i c a n F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " i n R o b e r t C o n q u e s t , e t a l . , D e f e n d i n g A m e r i c a (New Y o r k : B a s i c Books, 1977), pp. 72-73, 23 l a n d i s o f p oor q u a l i t y , and i s l o c a t e d i n r e g i o n s w i t h p o o r c l i m a t e and a s h o r t g r o w i n g s e a s o n . T h e s e c o n d i t i o n s mean t h a t f u r t h e r S o v i e t e x p l o i t a t i o n o f n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s w i l l be b o t h more e x p e n s i v e and a l s o l e s s p r o d u c t i v e t h a n p r e v i o u s d e v e l o p m e n t * * 4 B e r l i n e r and Holzman c i t e S o v i e t f i g u r e s t o s u g g e s t t h a t c a p i t a l i s an i n c r e a s i n g l y s c a r c e r e s o u r c e i n t h e S o v i e t O n i on* The p r e s s u r e on t h e economic p l a n n e r s t o p r o v i d e f o r more consumer goods h a s c a u s e d them t o p l a n t o move i n v e s t m e n t c a p i t a l i n t o consumer i n d u s t r i e s , and away from p r i m a r y i n d u s t r i e s . B e r l i n e r and Holzman see e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e consumer goods s e c t o r o f t h e economy competes more s t r o n g l y f o r s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s , and t h a t t h i s i s h a v i n g an e f f e c t on t h e g r o w t h r a t e o f c a p i t a l s t o c k . * 5 The c o n s e g u e n c e o f t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s i s t h a t t h e p r o s p e c t o f d r a w i n g on t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e s o u r c e s o f growth i s l e s s f a v o r a b l e t h a n i t was i n t h e p a s t and " f a c t o r p r o d u c t i v i t y h a s ,*,*, become more i m p o r t a n t " as a s o u r c e o f s u s t a i n i n g g r o w t h r a t e s i n S o v i e t s o c i e t y , * 6 B e r l i n e r and Holzman r e v i e w p a s t S o v i e t e f f o r t s a t i n c r e a s i n g f a c t o r p r o d u c t i v i t y and c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e p a s t e f f o r t s have n o t been n o t a b l y s u c c e s s f u l . They I f i n d S o v i e t d o m e s t i c e c o n o m i c p o l i c y i s not l i k e l y t o g e n e r a t e t h e d e s i r e d r a t e o f g r o w t h , and t h a t t h e S o v i e t s must t u r n t o ** B e r l i n e r and Holzman, p. 91, T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e w i t h r e s p e c t t o o i l p r o d u c t i o n * Even t h o u g h p r o v e n S o v i e t r e s e r v e s a r e v a s t , t h e S o v i e t . O n i o n i s e x p e r i e n c i n g s h o r t a g e s o f p e t r o l e u m . * 5 B e r l i n e r and Holzman, p. 93, * 6 B e r l i n e r and Holzman, p. 93. 24 f o r e i g n s o u r c e s of g r o w t h . 4 7 I n c r e a s e s i n f a c t o r p r o d u c t i v i t y come f r o m t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n and f r o m i n c r e a s e s i n e f f i c i e n c y . Computers p r e s e n t t h e means t o b o t h t y p e s o f improvement o f f a c t o r p r o d u c t i v i t y : e f f i c i e n c y i m p r o v e m e n t s and t e c h n o l o g i c a l advance,. The a b i l i t y t o b u i l d c o m p u t e r s r e p r e s e n t s * by i t s e l f , an improvement o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l c a p a b i l i t y o v e r t h e s t a t e which c a n n o t b u i l d them,. . Computer a p p l i c a t i o n s i n i n d u s t r y r e p r e s e n t c a s e s o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l improvement r e s u l t i n g i n i m p r o v e d f a c t o r p r o d u c t i v i t y . An example i s u s i n g a c o m p u t e r f o r p r o c e s s c o n t r o l a p p l i c a t i o n s , where r e p l a c e m e n t o f the.human o p e r a t o r by e l e c t r o - m e c h a n i c a l c o n t r o l can r e s u l t i n h i g h e r q u a l i t y a n d / o r q u a n t i t y o f o u t p u t . * 8 C o m p u t e r s c a n a l s o be employed t o i n c r e a s e t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f i n d u s t r y * The g r e a t e s t i m p a c t can be made.in t h e a r e a o f management* W e s t e r n b u s i n e s s e s commonly u s e . c o m p u t e r s t o p r o v i d e management w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g any l e v e l o f t h e e n t e r p r i s e , i n d e t a i l o r i n aggregate,. A s u r v e y o f r e c e n t i s s u e s o f t h e The C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t : P r e s s r e v e a l s t h a t t h e S o v i e t s a r e v e r y i n t e r e s t e d i n t h i s f o r m o f c o m p u t e r a p p i i c a t i o n * 4 9 A n d r e i E r s h o v , a S o v i e t c omputer p r o f e s s i o n a l , d i s c u s s e d p l a n s t o use Eyad c o m p u t e r s i n a u t o m ated m a n u f a c t u r i n g and 4 7 B e r l i n e r and Holzman, p. 98. 4 8 P r o c e s s c o n t r o l a p p l i c a t i o n s a r e t h o s e where m a n u f a c t u r i n g p r o c e s s e s a r e automated e l e c t r o n i c a l l y r a t h e r t h a n m e c h a n i c a l l y . 4 9 See e s p e c i a l l y The C u r r e n t - D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t P r e s s XXX No. .5 and XXX No. 24,. 25 process c o n t r o l a p p l i c a t i o n s , and a l l l e v e l s of management i n c l u d i n g the s t a t e - w i d e macroeconomic p l a n n i n g of the Committee f o r State P lanning (GOSPLAN) . 5 0 The Sov ie t Union planned to b u i l d 18,000 new data centers d u r i n g 1971-1985 to f a c i l i t a t e the Automated Management System (AMS) , which would then be l i n k e d i n t o a N a t i o n a l Automated System (NAS) under GOSPLAN. C o m p u t e r i z a t i o n would not procede without c e r t a i n s o c i a l cos ts * An a r t i c l e by a member of the c o l l e g i u m of the M i n i s t r y o f the Radio I n d u s t r y p u b l i s h e d i n Pravda acknowledges t h a t " r e s t r u c t u r i n g of the system of a d m i n i s t r a t i v e , economic, and t e c h n i c a l management" would be r e q u i r e d i f the f u l l b e n e f i t s of c o m p u t e r i z a t i o n were to be r e a l i z e d , s i The^Current . D i g e s t of the S o v i e t Press from 1976 t o the present has many a r t i c l e s on the theme of Automated Management Systems and on the theme of a N a t i o n a l Automated System as p a r t of the Committee f o r S ta te P l a n n i n g . 5 2 To c l a i m that the S o v i e t Union i s dependent on the U n i t e d S ta tes f o r computers seems, a t f i r s t g l a n c e , to s t r e t c h the s 0 A n d r e i E r s h o v , "USSR: H i s t o r y o f Computing and DP D e v i c e s D e t a i l e d , w i t h 1980 F o r e c a s t , " D a t a m a t i o n , 21, No. 9 (1975), p. 82-4, Ryad i s t h e t r a d e name f o r t h e S o v i e t U n i f i e d System c o m p u t e r s . . 5 1 N. K o r n a k o v , "And Let t h e Computer Manage," The C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t P r e s s XXX No. 5, p » 1 0 . 5 2 The d a t e 1976 i s n o t meant h e r e t o be s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e s t a r t o f a new F i v e Y e a r P l a n , i t m e r e l y r e p r e s e n t s t h e l i m i t s o f t h e r e s e a r c h i n T h e : C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f  t h e S o v i e t P r e s s done f o r t h i s p a p e r . , A c i t a t i o n s e a r c h may be an i n t e r e s t i n g method f o r f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h t o d e t e r m i n e t h e s t a r t i n g p o i n t o f o f f i c i a l p o l i c y e n d o r s e m e n t o f c o m p u t e r i z a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y g i v e n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e c y b e r n e t i c s c o n t r o v e r s y o f t h e 1 9 5 0 f s . , 26 c a s e * The t o t a l number o f 0.S, b u i l t o r d e s i g n e d m a c h i n e s i n t h e S o v i e t Onion i s q u i t e s m a l l , and t h e R u s s i a n s have a computer i n d u s t r y which i m p r o v e s e a c h y e a r . The U.S. Commerce D e p a r t m e n t e s t i m a t e s t h a t 85% o f t h e e s t i m a t e d 12,500 j c o m p u t e r s ( i n c l u d i n g m i n i c o m p u t e r s ) i n s t a l l e d i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a r e d o m e s t i c a l l y produced,. The U.S. has s u p p l i e d o n l y a b o u t 5% o f t h e i n s t a l l e d computer s t o c k . " 5 3 CCL and CoCom c o n t r o l s p r o h i b i t t h e s a l e o f m i l i t a r y c o m p u t e r s t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , so i t c a n be assumed t h a t S o v i e t m i l i t a r y computer n e e d s a r e d o m e s t i c a l l y f i l l e d . S o v i e t s p a c e s u c c e s s e s and t h e i r s t r a t e g i c m i s s i l e c a p a b i l i t y b e a r o u t t h i s a s s u m p t i o n . None o f t h e Western s y s t e m s i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i s known t o be employed d i r e c t l y by t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e S o v i e t s have a s t r u c t u r e o f j o i n t v e n t u r e s w i t h o t h e r CMEA n a t i o n s t o e n g i n e e r and m a n u f a c t u r e c o m p u t i n g e q u i p m e n t and s y s t e m s * F u r t h e r m o r e * o t h e r n a t i o n s c a n s u p p l y c o m p u t i n g e g u i p m e n t t o t h e S o v i e t s and have done so i n t h e p a s t - B r i t a i n , F r a n c e , J a p a n , and Sweden a r e i n t h i s c a t e g o r y . . The S o v i e t s have o b t a i n e d many m a c h i n e s f r o m B r i t a i n t o be used i n r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r i e s and f o r e c o n o m i c p l a n n i n g . I m p o r t s from F r a n c e and Germany have been used f o r p r o c e s s c o n t r o l , r e s e a r c h , and i n management a p p l i c a t i o n s . As e n c o u r a g i n g as t h e above e v i d e n c e may be t o a S o v i e t 5 3 M a r i l y n R u rak, T h e _ A m e r i c a n „ G p m p u t e r I n d u s t r y i n i t s I n t e r n a t i o n a l , C o m p e t e t j v e , e n v i r o n m e n t , U.S* Department o f Commerce, ( W a s h i n g t o n , D.C.: GPO, November, 19 7 6 ) , p. 50, The e s t i m a t e s a r e b a s e d on i n f o r m a t i o n known as o f 1975,* 27 a u t a r k i s t , two f a c t s must be n o t e d * F i r s t , t h e S o v i e t s a l w a y s seek a d v a n c e d U,«S. equipment f o r t h e most demanding j o b s . The S o v i e t s have a t t e m p t e d t o p u r c h a s e h i g h powered CDC C y b e r -s e r i e s c o m p u t e r s and t h e C r a y - 1 ( p e r h a p s t h e most p o w e r f u l computer i n t h e world) f o r u s e a t r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e s (see a p p e n d i x A ) , When t h e r e q u e s t f o r a C y b e r 76 (an o l d e r , b u t v e r y p o w e r f u l model) was d e n i e d , t h e S o v i e t s a t t e m p t e d t o p u r c h a s e s e v e r a l s m a l l e r C y b e r c o m p u t e r s . , S e c o n d , many o f t h e E u r o p e a n c o m p u t e r s which t h e S o v i e t s have o b t a i n e d embody O.S. t e c h n o l o g y . Some m a c h i n e s a r e p r o d u c e d under l i c e n s e , o t h e r s u s e O.S. p a t e n t e d c i r c u i t s o r components, and many a r e s o f t w a r e c o m p a t i b l e wi t h U.S.,computers*. I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o mputers, L i m i t e d (ICL) o f B r i t a i n i s t h e o n l y major non-A m e r i c a n v e n d o r t o p u r s u e s o f t w a r e i n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m t h e 0*S* i n d u s t r y . M a c h i n e s which a r e s o f t w a r e c o m p a t i b l e w i t h t h e IBM 360 - 370 i n c l u d e F u j i t s u - H i t a c h i ' s M i s e r i e s ( J a p a n ) , S iemans 4004 (Germany), O n i d a t a 7.750 (a j o i n t Siemans and C I I -H/B p r o j e c t ) . , The F r e n c h company, C I I - H o n e y w e l l / B u l l , and t h e J a p a n e s e N E C - T o s h i b a c o m p a n i e s p r o d u c e m a c h i n e s b a s e d on H o n e y w e l l t e c h n o l o g y . 5 4 The dependence o f t h e S o v i e t s on U.S. d e s i g n c o n c e p t s i s most d r a m a t i c a l l y i l l u s t r a t e d w i t h t h e d e v e l o p e m e n t o f t h e S o v i e t U n i f i e d S y s t e m s (Ryad) o f computers* The d e s i g n o f t h e s e m a c h i n e s e m u l a t e s t h e IBM 360 s e r i e s i n a l m o s t a l l i m p o r t a n t d e t a i l s * The d e s i g n s i m i l a r i t y i s so c l o s e t h a t a l l »• Rurak, pp. 29^-42. 28 s o f t w a r e w r i t t e n f o r IBM 360 m a c h i n e s a p p a r e n t l y works on Ryad mac h i n e s w i t h o u t m o d i f i c a t i o n . 3 5 T h i s i s no a c c i d e n t , n o r i s t h e announced i n t e n t i o n f o r t h e n e x t s e r i e s o f S o v i e t d e v e l o p m e n t t o m i r r o r l a t e r IBM m o d e l s , e i t h e r t h e 370 s e r i e s o r t h e 3 0 3 x . 5 6 These Ryad-2 m a c h i n e s w i l l be t h e f i r s t t o be f u l l y amenable t o t i m e - s h a r i n g o p e r a t i o n , 5 7 and some e x a m p l e s , s u c h a s t h e p r o p o s e d R-65, a r e e x p e c t e d t o meet t h e p e r f o r m a n c e p a r a m e t e r s o f t h e . IBM 3033 o r t h e Amdahl 470v/6 (which i s i n s t a l l e d a t UBC)• 5 8 Ryad-2 m a c h i n e s a r e r e p o r t e d t o be " p r o g r a m - c o m p a t i b l e " w i t h Ryad-1 m a c h i n e s ; i t h a s been n o t e d t h a t Ryad-1 m a c h i n e s a r e program c o m p a t i b l e w i t h IBM 360 and 370 m o d e l s . The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h i s f a c t w i l l be examined i n 55 "E. German CPU O u t p e r f o r m s 370/145" C o m p u t e r w o r l d 17, December 17, 1975, p, ,34. . A l l Ryad s y s t e m s ( e x c e p t ES-1021) a r e d e s i g n e d t o be s o f t w a r e - c o m p a t i b l e . ; A d i s c u s s i o n o f s o f t w a r e a p p e a r s l a t e r i n t h i s p a p e r . . The Ryad p r o d u c t l i n e i n c l u d e s models ES 1020, ES 1030, ES 1040, ES 1050, and ES 1060., The m o dels a r e r o u g h l y e q u i v a l e n t t o IBM s y s t e m s w i t h s i m i l a r numbers, f o r example, an IBM 360/40 o r an IBM 370/145 i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y e q u i v a l e n t t o an ES 1040. . 56 M o d e l s i n t h e IBM 303x s e r i e s i n c l u d e . t h e 3031,3032 and 3033; O n l y t h e 3033 e v i d e n c e s d r a m a t i c i n n o v a t i o n ; . See S t e p h e n I p p o l i t o , "Measure f o r C o u n t e r m e a s u r e , " D a t a m a t i o n , 25, No. 2 (1379) , p. 121, 5 7 > The v a r i o u s components o f a c o m p u t e r s y s t e m - c e n t r a l p r o c e s s i n g u n i t ( c p u ) , p r i n t e r s , m a g n e t i c t a p e u n i t s - a l l o p e r a t e a t d i f f e r e n t s p e e d s . . P r i n t e r s a r e g e n e r a l l y v e r y s l o w , c p u ' s g e n e r a l l y p e r f o r m t h e i r f u n c t i o n s v e r y q u i c k l y . When a computer s y s t e m i s s e t up t o r u n o n l y o n e . j o b a t a t i m e , t h e f a s t components o f t h e s y s t e m u s u a l l y must w a i t f o r t h e s l o w components, c a u s i n g some o f t h e s y s t e m ' s r e s o u r c e s t o be i d l e f o r l a r g e f r a c t i o n s o f t h e t o t a l t i m e i t t a k e s t o r u n a j o b . ' T i m e - s h a r i n g * o p e r a t i o n a l l o w s a computer t o be much more p r o d u c t i v e b e c a u s e many j o b s s h a r e t h e s y s t e m ; a s one j o b i s u s i n g t h e p r i n t e r , a n o t h e r might be r e a d i n g o r w r i t i n g on a m a g n e t i c t a p e u n i t , and a n o t h e r might be e x e c u t i n g i n t h e c p u . , sa "Computer Systems Reach Second S t a g e " , T h e _ C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t P r e s s - XXX No. 33 ( J u l y 1978), p. 6. The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a r e c e i v e d i t s 470v/6 i n A p r i l o f 1978, 29 t h e c h a p t e r on s o f t w a r e . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e t h a t t h e c a p a b i l i t y which Byad-2 aims a t , t i m e - s h a r i n g , was a c h i e v e d b o t h f o r h a r d w a r e and f o r s o f t w a r e a b o u t t h e mid-1960*s by r e s e a r c h e r s and c o m p a n i e s i n t h e O.S. IBM 360/67 c o m p u t e r s s u p p o r t e d t i m e - s h a r i n g u s i n g t h e s o f t w a r e s u p p l i e d by t h e computer c e n t e r a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n ( c a l l e d t h e M i c h i g a n T e r m i n a l System, M T S ) . 5 9 S t o w e l l s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e S o v i e t computer i n d u s t r y has been d e p e n d e n t on Western d e s i g n c o n c e p t s f r o m v e r y e a r l y on. He f i n d s t h a t as f a r back as 1959, t h e two c o m p u t e r s i n t r o d u c e d by t h e R u s s i a n s as ' s i g n i f i c a n t a d v a n c e s ' (OSAL-I, and Minsk-2) showed, upon c l o s e e x a m i n a t i o n * t h a t " t h e i r s i m i l a r i t i e s t o W e s t e r n p r o t o t y p e s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more t h a t c o i n c i d e n t a l . " 6 0 S t o w e l l s t a t e s t h a t t h e Byad s e r i e s ( d e v e l o p m e n t o f B y a d began i n 1969) was modeled d i r e c t l y a f t e r t h e IBM 360 computer s e r i e s t o f a c i l i t a t e d e v e l o p m e n t * The S o v i e t s were a b l e t o draw on v a s t amounts o f p u b l i c l y a v a i l a b l e t e c h n i c a l d a t a c o n c e r n i n g IBM 360 c o m p u t e r s (announced i n 1964); and i t h a s been s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t s managed t o o b t a i n some 40 s a m p l e s of t h e 360 c o m p u t e r d e s p i t e O.S* e x p o r t c o n t r o l s , * 6 1 T h i s t y p e o f dependence on 0,. S„ . d e s i g n c o n c e p t s 5 9 Bon McQuiggan, " I n the B e g i n n i n g : How MTS Came t o 0BC," C o m p u t e r D a t a , 4, No. 3 (1979), p. 12. MTS i s s t i l l i n u s e t o d a y a t some t e n d a t a c e n t e r s i n N o r t h A m e r i c a and W e s t e r n E u r o p e , a l t h o u g h i t now r u n s on u p d a t e d h a r d w a r e s u c h as t h e Amdahl 4 70v/6 a t 0BC* 6 0 C h r i s t o p h e r S t o w e l l , S o v i e t : - I n d u s t r i a l , Import  P r i o r i t i e s (New Y o r k : P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1975), p,. 184.. 6 1 P h i l i p Hanson, " W e s t e r n T e c h n o l o g y i n the S o v i e t O n i o n , " P r o b l e m s o f Communism, XX V I I , No* 6, (November-December 1 9 7 8 ) , P- 27. 30 w i l l ensure t h a t the S o v i e t computer development program w i l l f o l l o w the O.S. l e a d , f o r i f an independent E &.D program i s not developed, the experience of the l e a r n i n g • p r o c e s s cannot be enjoyed f i r s t hand. Computer development, i t i s important to remember, i s an i n c r e m e n t a l p r o c e s s . Rarely i s the accumulated experience thrown out and a f r e s h s t a r t made from the b e g i n n i n g . 6 2 A very s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o c o n v e r s i o n of s c i e n t i f i c knowledge i n t o i n d u s t r i a l performance comes from p r a c t i c a l knowledge gained from the p r e v i o u s experience with a s i m i l a r product* The a b i l i t y to d u p l i c a t e one or two examples i n a l a b o r a t o r y i s not the same t a l e n t as the a b i l i t y to c r e a t e a new t h i n g , nor i s i t the same as the a b i l i t y t o mass produce the new device* The process of c r e a t i o n i n v o l v e s making mistakes, which a r e . v a l u a b l e f o r f u t u r e c r e a t i o n because they i n d i c a t e a f a l s e path which need not be explored a g a i n . The process of mass production i n v o l v e s the design of a n c i l l a r y eguipment and procedures which allow l e s s s o p h i s t i c a t e d workers than the r e s e a r c h e r t o produce volumes of a product with few e r r o r s . Copying a few examples i n a l a b , or even mass producing c o p i e s of goods developed elsewhere.short-changes the key p a r t of the process, which Amann c a l l s the "resea r c h -p r o d u c t i o n c y c l e " (research - experimental development i n n o v a t i o n - d i f f u s i o n ) , . The experience which i s not gained by copying i s moving o r i g i n a l r e s e a r c h through the i n n o v a t i o n -See I p p o l i t o , pp. 120-26. 31 d i f f u s i o n s t a g e s o f t h e c y c l e . * 3 As J o h n Walsh s a y s * " i t i s g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d t h a t i n n o v a t i o n i s a complex p r o c e s s which depends n o t o n l y on B & D, b u t on a c t i o n a c r o s s t h e s p e c t r u m o f f i n a n c i n g , e n g i n e e r i n g , p r o d u c t i o n , and m a r k e t i n g . " * * The program o f ' r e v e r s e e n g i n e e r i n g ' f r o m f o r e i g n models "has c a u s e d t h e S o v i e t s t o e x c e l a t m a s t e r i n g y e s t e r d a y ' s t e c h n o l o g y , t h e r e b y m i n i m i z i n g t h e i r , a b i l i t y t o keep a b r e a s t w i t h t o d a y ' s and a n t i c i p a t e t o m o r r o w ' s . " 6 5 A major s h o r t c u t r e l e v a n t t o m o d e l l i n g Eyad a f t e r IBM i s t h a t s o f t w a r e r e q u i r e m e n t s w i l l be i d e n t i c a l * . T h u s , o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m s and l i b r a r y r o u t i n e s ( d e f i n i t i o n s t o f o l l o w ) c o u l d be t r a n s f e r r e d f r o m an IBM s y s t e m t o a E y a d s y s t e m w i t h a minimum o f a d d i t i o n a l manpower c o s t . Here a g a i n t h e r e i s a p o t e n t i a l dependency; a s w i t h hardware, the ' c o p y i n g ' s t a t e must w a i t f o r t h e ' l e a d e r ' s t a t e t o d e v e l o p t h e p r o d u c t . The l e a d e r i n computer t e c h n o l o g y r e a p s t h e b e n e f i t of h a v i n g t h e more p r o d u c t i v e e q u i p m e n t f o r t h e l o n g e s t t i m e . T h e r e f o r e , t h e l e v e l o f p r o d u c t i v i t y o f t h e S o v i e t computer i n d u s t r y i s l i k e l y t o r e m a i n somewhat b e h i n d t h e l e v e l o b t a i n e d by U.S. t e c h n o l o g y ( p r o v i d i n g , o f c o u r s e , t h e U.S. economy r e m a i n s h e a l t h y enough t o s u s t a i n c o n t i n u e d p r o g r e s s i n computer t e c h n o l o g y ) , and t h e S o v i e t s w i l l l i k e l y c o n t i n u e t o be d e p e n d e n t on f o r e i g n n a t i o n s t o s u p p l y t h e h i g h e s t p e r f o r m a n c e computer equipment and s o f t w a r e . . The f a c t 6 3 B o n a l d Amann, " S o v i e t T e c h n o l o g i c a l P e r f o r m a n c e , " S u r v e y , 23 ( S p r i n g 1977-78), p. 69. 6 * W a l s h , p..378. 6 5 Grossman, p. 70.. 32 t h a t t h e c a n c e l l a t i o n o f t h e O n i v a c s a l e c a u s e d t h e R u s s i a n s t o t u r n t o a n o t h e r f o r e i g n s u p p l i e r i s s u g g e s t i v e o f t h i s c o n d i t i o n . . , P r e s u m a b l y , a n e t w o r k o f s e v e r a l Ryad m a c h i n e s s i m i l a r t o t h e ES-1040 (IBM 370/145 l o o k - a l i k e ) c o u l d have f i l l e d t h e gap; t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e g u i r e d s o f t w a r e does n o t a p p a r e n t l y e x i s t i n t h e S o v i e t O n i o n must f i g u r e i n t h e d e c i s i o n t o s e e k t h e I R I S 80. The s o f t w a r e dependency i s i n d i c a t e d i n a n o t h e r i n t e r e s t i n g , b u t o b l i q u e way - one w i t h p o l i t i c a l r a m i f i c a t i o n s f o r i n t e r n a l S o v i e t p o l i t i c a l c l i m a t e . . The s t a t e d p u r p o s e o f t h e T a s s s y s t e m p u r c h a s e i s t o s e r v i c e t h e demand f o r b a c k g r o u n d i n f o r m a t i o n about a t h l e t e s c o m p e t i n g i n t h e Moscow O l y m p i c s . Bu t t h e games w i l l o n l y l a s t some number o f weeks, so what i s t o become o f t h e c o m p u t e r a t t h e end o f i t s s t a t e d f u n c t i o n ? O.S. S e n a t o r Henry J a c k s o n has s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e s y s t e m c o u l d be u s e d t o m o n i t o r S o v i e t d i s s i d e n t s . 6 6 The s u g g e s t i o n i s r e a s o n a b l e , s i n c e t h e l o g i c o f t h e d a t a b a s e f u n c t i o n f o r O l y m p i c r e p o r t a g e c o u l d e a s i l y b e . a p p l i e d t o t h e p r o b l e m o f m o n i t o r i n g p e r s o n s i n a p o p u l a t i o n , . . The f a c t t h a t t h e S o v i e t s a r e i m p o r t i n g a s y s t e m r a t h e r t h a n a t t e m p t i n g t o g a r n e r t h e p r e s t i g e o f p r o d u c i n g one t h e m s e l v e s s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e i r h a r d w a r e o r t h e i r s o f t w a r e c a p a b i l i t i e s l e a v e s o m e t h i n g t o be d e s i r e d . D a t a base o p e r a t i o n s e s s e n t i a l t o r e p o r t a g e a r e a l s o e s s e n t i a l t o any k i n d o f management i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s u c h as t h e p r o p o s e d S o v i e t AMS and a r e w e l l d e v e l o p e d i n 6 6 " C a r t e r C a n c e l s Computer S a l e t o S o v i e t O n i o n * " W a i i S t r e e t J o u r n a l . J u l y 19, 1978, p. 4. 33 Western computer s y s t e m s . M u t u a l dependence ( a d m i t t e d l y a s y m e t r i c a l and s m a l l - s c a l e ) between the U n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n seems t o e x i s t ; and t h e c o n d i t i o n s i n b o t h c o u n t r i e s seem t o i n d i c a t e t h a t t h i s i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e w i l l c o n t i n u e . An i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f S o v i e t d e p endence i s i t s a p p a r e n t w i l l i n g n e s s t o f o l l o w t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l l e a d o f t h e U*S. W h i l e t h i s a p p r o a c h o b v i a t e s some d e v e l o p m e n t p r o b l e m s , i n t h e l o n g r u n t h i s i n c r e a s e s v u l n e r a b i l i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i n t h e S o v i e t c o m p u t e r i n d u s t r y by c a u s i n g any f u t u r e d e s i g n i n d e p e n d e n c e p r o j e c t t o i n c u r t h e huge c o s t o f reprogramming* Computer t r a d e r e p r e s e n t s an i s s u e where a s y m e t r i c a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e c a n be e a s i l y s e e n . The e v e n t s o f t h e U n i v a c c a s e s u g g e s t s e n s i t i v i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e (as Keohane and Nye have f o r m u l a t e d i t ) s i n c e t h e S o v i e t s have been f o r c e d t o r e a c t t o an a c t i o n t a k e n by t h e A m e r i c a n p r e s i d e n t p r e d i c a t e d on p o l i t i c a l g r o u n d s , and had t o r e a c t w i t h i n t h e c o n s t r a i n t s o f a p r i o r p o l i c y . . The S o v i e t r e s p o n s i v e n e s s t o t h e A m e r i c a n a c t i o n and t h e i r w i l l i n g n e s s t o b e a r an 80% i n c r e a s e i n c o s t s t r o n g l y i n d i c a t e s e n s i t i v i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . 34 CHAPTER 4 COMPUTERS IN THE SOVIET SOCIETY A s u r v e y o f a r t i c l e s i n S o v i e t t e c h n i c a l p u b l i c a t i o n s and i n t h e S o v i e t p r e s s r e v e a l s a wide s p e c t r u m o f p l a n n e d a p p l i c a t i o n s f o r c o m p u t i n g e q u i p m e n t i n S o v i e t U n i o n . A s u r v e y o f a r t i c l e s p u b l i s h e d i n The. C u r r e n t _ , D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t P r e s s d u r i n g t h e p a s t few y e a r s shows t h a t c o m puters a r e b e i n g u s e d o r p r o p o s e d f o r t e l e p h o n e b i l l i n g s y s t e m s , s p a c e c r a f t g u i d a n c e s y s t e m s , c o m p u t e r d a t i n g s e r v i c e s , i n d u s t r i a l p r o c e s s c o n t r o l , t o model t h e p r o g r e s s o f a f l u e p i d e m i c , o p t i m i z e a s s i g n m e n t o f s t u d e n t s t o s p e c i a l t y s c h o o l s , s c h e d u l e c o n s t r u c t i o n p r o j e c t p r o g r e s s , s t a t e e c o n o m i c p l a n n i n g , e n t e r p r i s e management s y s t e m s and f o r many o t h e r p u r p o s e s * 6 7 A r t i c l e s d e a l i n g w i t h t h e p r o b l e m s i n t h e S o v i e t c o m p u t e r i n d u s t r y a r e a l s o q u i t e p r e v a l e n t , w i t h t h e theme seeming t o be t h a t t h e r e i s n o t enough c o m p u t e r i z e d e n t e r p r i s e i n t h e economy, t h e r e i s i n a d e q u a t e s o f t w a r e , and t h e r e a r e an i n s u f f i c i e n t number o f c o m p u t e r s o f h i g h enough power and r e l i a b i l i t y t o s e r v i c e t h e d e m a n d . 6 8 C l u e s a b o u t t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f S o v i e t c o m p u t i n g s t o c k a r e f o u n d b u r i e d i n t h e s e a r t i c l e s . F o r example, some a r t i c l e s w i l l t r e a t a s p e c i f i c a p p l i c a t i o n o r i n d u s t r y , s u c h as t h e c a s e o f a s c h e d u l i n g s y s t e m f o r heavy t r u c k s i n 'open c u t ' m i n e s . . F a v o r a b l e 6 7 The C u r r e n t D i g e s t of, t h e S o v i e t , P r e s s , X X V I I I No.,1 t o t h e p r e s e n t . See a l s o Wade. H o l l a n d , ed., So v iet.-. Gy be r n e t i c Review, 3 v o l s . , ( Santa M o n i c a : t h e Rand C o r p o r a t i o n , 1970-1973), 6 8 See e s p e c i a l l y The C u r r e n t - D i g e s t o f t h e , . S o v i e t P r e s s XXVII No. 31, p, 7. 35 economic b e n e f i t s a r e a p p a r e n t l y t o be had by c o m p u t e r i z i n g t h i s s c h e d u l i n g t a s k , y e t f o r a c u r r e n t e s t i m a t e d demand o f 200 u n i t s , i n t e n d e d p r o d u c t i o n - i n 1978 i s s i x s y s t e m s , 6 9 . F u r t h e r a n a l y s i s b a s e d on t h i s t y p e o f c l u e c o u l d r e v e a l t h a t t h e S o v i e t c o m p u t e r i n d u s t r y i s n o t a b l e t o s u p p l y a c e r t a i n t y p e of demand, b u t an a n a l y s t would need t h e f a c t s c o n c e r n i n g t h e number and s i z e o f m i n i n g o p e r a t i o n s f o r which c o m p u t e r i z a t i o n was p r o p o s e d , and a l s o d e t a i l s c o n c e r n i n g t h e . s i z e o f t h e computer t o be u s e d and t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f the c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m . I n t h i s c a s e , s c h e d u l i n g s o f t w a r e o f t h i s t y p e i s a v a i l a b l e i n t h e West and t h e t a s k c o u l d b e . p e r f o r m e d on a r a t h e r s m a l l c o m p u t e r , The a n a l y s t would s t i l l need t o know i f t h e e c o n o m i c s o f e a c h m i n i n g o p e r a t i o n c o u l d j u s t i f y t h e c o s t o f c o m p u t e r i z a t i o n . T h e s e d a t a a r e n o t t o be f o u n d i n t h e a r t i c l e c i t e d * P r o j e c t e d g r o w t h o f computer s t o c k i s t o be l a r g e l y c h a n n e l e d i n t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f computer c e n t e r s . 7 0 The c u r r e n t s t a t e o f t h e S o v i e t c o mputer c a p a c i t y i s d e s c r i b e d , e x p l i c i t l y and i m p l i c i t l y , as a m i x t u r e o f s e c o n d and t h i r d g e n e r a t i o n m a c h i n e r y . 7 1 The c u r r e n t s t o c k i s a p p a r e n t l y 6 9 The C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t P r e s s XXX No. 24, p, . 10, 7 0 1 The C u r r e n t ; D i q e s t _ o f ^ t h e _ S o v i e t _ P r e s s X X V I I I No. 31, p. 7. 7 4 The C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t _ _ P r e s s - XXX No,; 37 p,; 19, and X X V I I I No. 31, p, 7, 36 hard w a r e and s o f t w a r e i n a d e q u a t e f o r ' r e a l t i m e ' o p e r a t i o n , 7 2 and c o m p l a i n t s a b o u t t h e . i n a d e q u a c y o f s o f t w a r e a p p e a r f r e q u e n t l y i n a r t i c l e s p u b l i s h e d i n T h e ; C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t P r e s s . F o r example, A. A. Y e z h e v s k y , C h a i r m a n o f t h e S t a t e Committee f o r P r o d u c t i o n and T e c h n i c a l S u p p l y t o A q r i c u l t u r e s a y s : The i n a d e q u a t e p r e p a r a t i o n o f s t a n d a r d s o f t w a r e f o r t h e U n i f i e d System c o m p u t e r s i s a major s h o r t c o m i n g i n o r g a n i z i n g t h e c r e a t i o n o f a u t o m a t e d management s y s t e m s , a f a c t o r t h a t i s s l o w i n g t h e . p a c e o f s y s t e m s d e v e l o p m e n t i n m i n i s t r i e s and d e p a r t m e n t s ; 7 3 The i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e p r o b l e m s posed by t h e l a c k o f s t a n d a r d i z e d s o f t w a r e w i l l be examined i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l l a t e r , b u t i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o n o t e h e r e t h a t t h e Ey a d c o m p u t e r s a r e t h e newest S o v i e t c o m p u t e r s i n mass p r o d u c t i o n , d e s i g n e d t o be u s e d f o r t h o s e e n t e r p r i s e management computer c e n t e r s w h i c h a r e t o compose t h e b u l k o f t h e i n c r e a s e i n c a p a c i t y i n t h e c u r r e n t F i v e Y e a r P l a n , and w i t h o u t s o f t w a r e any c o m p u t e r i s n o n f u n c t i o n a l * I n c o n t r a s t * A m e r i c a n computer s t o c k now i n c l u d e s m a c h i n e s which c o u l d be c l a s s e d i n t h e f i f t h g e n e r a t i o n , and t i m e -s h a r i n g i s w i d e s p r e a d among f o u r t h (and even some t h i r d ) 7 2 The C u r r e n t D i g e s t of. t h e S o v i e t P r e s s XXVII No,.43, p. 33. The term ' r e a l t i m e * i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e computer r e s p o n d s so f a s t t o a g i v e n s t i m u l u s t h a t t h e t i m e d e l a y i s n e g l i g i b l e * E e s p o n s e t i m e s a r e u s u a l l y measured i n t h e r a n g e o f f r a c t i o n s o f a s e c o n d (as s m a l l as m i l l i s e c o n d s ) . R d e l a y t h i s s h o r t i n many c a s e s d o e s n o t a f f e c t t h e . o n g o i n g p r o c e s s , t h e r e f o r e , t h e r e s p o n s e i s s a i d t o o c c u r i n r e a l t i m e . 7 3 Xhg-Cug£gii;fc - D i g e s t o f t h e S o v i e t P r e s s -XXX No,; 37, p,- 19. r 37 g e n e r a t i o n m a c h i n e s * 7 * The f a c t t h a t Ryad s y s t e m s a r e n o t s u p p l i e d w i t h s t a n d a r d i z e d s o f t w a r e m e a n s , t h a t e a c h o f t h e new computer c e n t e r s w i l l n o t be a b l e t o engage i n p r o d u c t i v e work f o r t h e improvement o f t h e economy u n t i l a f t e r t e c h n i c i a n s have w r i t t e n b a s i c s o f t w a r e f o r t h e s i t e . T h i s w i l l n e c e s s a r i l y c a u s e a l a r g e amount o f t i m e t o be l o s t , and w i l l p r o b a b l y r e s u l t i n i n e f f i c i e n t usage o f Ryad c a p a c i t y . a n o t h e r common theme f o u n d i n The C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f ,the S o v i e t P r e s s a r t i c l e s on c o m p u t e r s i s t h e c a l l f o r improvement o f c o m p u t e r c e n t e r e f f e c t i v e n e s s and t h e b r o a d e n i n g o f t h e s c o p e o f c o m p u t e r a p p l i c a t i o n s * 7 5 The aim o f S o v i e t e c o n o m i c p l a n n e r s i s t o a c h i e v e an automated s y s t e m o f management i n f o r m a t i o n r e p o r t i n g (aMS) which w i l l have a computer s y s t e m a t e a c h e n t e r p r i s e . The aMS computer w i l l r e p o r t t h r o u g h t i m e -s h a r i n g n e t w o r k s t o h i g h e r l e v e l c o m puter s y s t e m s , w h i c h w i l l i n t u r n be s u b o r d i n a t e t o a N a t i o n a l automated System a t t h e l e v e l of t h e Committee f o r S t a t e P l a n n i n g (GOSPLAN) . The p r o j e c t e d s y s t e m w i l l a l l o w GOSPLaN t o examine t h e f u n c t i o n o f any p a r t o f t h e e c o n o m i c s y s t e m by p o l l i n g i t s c o m p u t e r , c i r c u m v e n t i n g t h e human managers. T h i s t y p e o f i n f o r m a t i o n m o n i t o r i n g would be used t o enhance t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e e c o n o m i c m o d e l i n g p r o c e s s . 7 4 i a c o m p u t e r g e n e r a t i o n r e f e r s t o t h e t e c h n o l o g y embodied i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e machine* The p r i n c i p l e g e n e r a t i o n s a r e : ,1, Vacuum t u b e t e c h n o l o g y . (IBM 704, 1952) 2. T r a n s i s t o r s as d i s c r e t e components. (IBM 7030, 1961) 3. I n t r o d u c t i o n o f i n t e g r a t e d c i r c u i t s * (IBM 360, 1965) 4. L a r g e s c a l e i n t e g r a t e d c i r c u i t s , s e m i c o n d u c t o r memory. (amdahl 470, 1972) 5. V e r y l a r g e s c a l e i n t e g r a t i o n , m i c r o p r o g r a m a b i l i t y * ( C r a y - 1 , 1976) 7s s e e e s p e c i a l l y V o l * XXX, No. 5, p. 10. 38 The s c a l e o f t h i s p r o j e c t i s u n p r e c e d e n t e d and t h e amount of e q u i p m e n t and s o f t w a r e s u p p o r t r e q u i r e d w i l l be v e r y g r e a t . I f t h e S o v i e t computer i n d u s t r y h a s p r o b l e m s s u p p l y i n g s u f f i c i e n t e q u i p m e n t a t c u r r e n t l e v e l s o f demand, t h e p r o p o s e d s y s t e m would seem t o be w e l l beyond t h e c a p a c i t y o f S o v i e t i n d u s t r y f o r any f o r e s e e a b l e t i m e f r a m e . A l s o , i t i s n o t e d t h a t a computer s y s t e m p r o d u c e d by t h e S o v i e t O n i o n a p p e a r s t o be about (15 t i m e s more e x p e n s i v e t h a n an American e q u i v a l e n t . 7 6 Thus i t would seem t h a t g i v e n t h e e x p r e s s e d d e s i r e o f t h e S o v i e t s t o v a s t l y i n c r e a s e t h e i r c o m p u t i n g c a p a c i t y and a p p l i c a t i o n s , and t h e : r a t t i e r more c o s t e f f e c t i v e n a t u r e o f A m e r i c a n and o t h e r W e s t e r n h a r d w a r e , t h e S o v i e t s might have a s t r o n g e c o n o m i c i n c e n t i v e t o i n v e s t i n i m p o r t e d computer e g u i p m e n t . G e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , i n c r e a s e d use of c o m p u t e r s i n a s o c i e t y c a n have two k i n d s o f p o s i t i v e e f f e c t ; f r e e r e s o u r c e s o r e n h a n c e c a p a b i l i t i e s . A r e s o u r c e f r e e i n g a p p l i c a t i o n i s one which a l l o w s some f u n c t i o n t o be p e r f o r m e d a t a c o n s t a n t l e v e l , b u t w i t h f e w e r r e s o u r c e s , be t h e y manpower r e s o u r c e s , e l e c t r i c a l power r e s o u r c e s , o r whatever., A c o m p u t e r i z e d b o o k k e e p i n g s y s t e m would, a t t h e b e g i n n i n g , be a r e s o u r c e f r e e i n g a p p l i c a t i o n i f i t a l l o w e d t h e same b o o k k e e p i n g 7 6 S z u p r o w i c z , " W o r l d ' s Top M a r k e t s , " p. 153. J a p a n e s e and W e s t e r n E u r o p e a n m a n u f a c t u r e r s a r e now be c o m i n g p r i c e c o m p e t e t i v e a t some r a t h e r h i g h l e v e l s o f p e r f o r m a n c e w i t h t h e U* S. T h i s c o m p e t e t i o n s h o u l d c a u s e t h e p r i c e a d v a n t a g e o f t h e Western c o m p u t e r s t o i n c r e a s e e v e n more, a l t h o u g h t h e S o v i e t s s h o u l d b e g i n t o r e a l i z e some e c o n o m i e s o f s c a l e a s t h e y c o n t i n u e s e r i a l p r o d u c t i o n o f t h e Byad s e r i e s * 39 f u n c t i o n s as t h e manual s y s t e m . i t r e p l a c e d , b u t r e q u i r e d f e w e r w o r k e r s . I m p l e m e n a t i o n o f a N a t i o n a l Automated System o f ecomomic r e p o r t i n q s u c h as t h e p r o p o s e d GOSPLAN s y s t e m would be a c a p a b i l i t y e n h a n c i n g a p p l i c a t i o n b e c a u s e . i t would a l l o w f u n c t i o n s n o t p o s s i b l e under t h e o l d s y s t e m . . A p o s s i b l e n e g a t i v e e f f e c t o f c o m p u t e r i z a t i o n i s t h e • r e s o u r c e d e m a n d i n g 1 e f f e c t . . I f a p r o j e c t i s t o o a m b i t i o u s o r n o t w e l l t h o u g h t t h r o u g h , i t may e v e n t u a l l y r e q u i r e a v e r y l a r g e number o f e x t r a p e r s o n n e l . S c a r c e p e r s o n n e l r e s o u r c e s would be drawn away f r o m o t h e r t a s k s . T h i s has been a r e l a t i v e l y common We s t e r n p r o b l e m , due t o t h e d i f f i c u l t y i n a c c u r a t e l y a s s e s s i n g t h e s c o p e o f a p r o p o s e d c o m p u t e r p r o j e c t . O t h e r a r e a s which p o t e n t i a l l y b e n e f i t f r o m i m p o r t o f c o m p u t e r s i n c l u d e t h e m i l i t a r y , b a s i c r e s e a r c h , and p o l i c e a c t i v i t i e s . W h i l e i n f o r m a t i o n i s s p a r s e a b o u t S o v i e t a p p l i c a t i o n s such a s m i l i t a r y u s e , t h e p o t e n t i a l u s e s i n t h e s e a r e a s h a s c a u s e d c o n c e r n among t h e g o v e r n m e n t s o f n a t i o n s which a r e p o t e n t i a l s u p p l i e r s o f c o m p u t i n g e q u i p m e n t , An e s t i m a t e o f p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s o f c o m p u t e r s i n t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y c a n be i n f e r r e d f r o m known f a c t s a b o u t S o v i e t m i l i t a r y p r a c t i c e and f r o m S o v i e t a c h e i v e m e n t s i n n o n - m i l i t a r y v e n t u r e s , s u c h as s p a c e e x p l o r a t i o n . Much o f t h e c o n c e r n e x p r e s s e d by U , S . . a n a l y s t s o v e r p o s t u l a t e d S o v i e t a c t i v i t y i s b a s e d on e x t r a p o l a t i o n s f r o m t h e U.Si d e f e n s e p h i l o s o p h y and p r a c t i c e . . A m e r i c a n a n a l y s t s p o i n t t o t h e use of c o m p u t e r s i n U. S-. d e f e n s e s y s t e m s and t h e n e x t e n d 40 t h e model t o t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y s t r u c t u r e . W h i l e t h i s may be u s e f u l a s a h y p o t h e t i c a l w o r s t - c a s e a n a l y s i s , i t d o e s n o t seem t o be j u s t i f i e d by t h e known f a c t s a b o u t S o v i e t m i l i t a r y o r g a n i z a t i o n . 7 7 A l a r g e amount o f m i l i t a r y r e s e a r c h and d e v e l o p m e n t i s c o m p u t e r - a i d e d i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . , The USSR has a p p a r e n t l y d e v e l o p e d s u f f i c i e n t c o m p u t i n g t e c h n o l o g y t o s o l v e i t s E & D p r o b l e m . In a r e a s s u c h as m i s s i l e g u i d a n c e , t h e B u s s i a n s have o p t e d f o r a d i f f e r e n t d e s i g n a p p r o a c h t h a n t h e A m e r i c a n s . . The A m e r i c a n s have c o n c e n t r a t e d on m i n i t u r i z a t i o n o f g u i d a n c e c o m p u t e r s c a r r i e d on t h e m i s s i l e ; t h e S o v i e t s h a v e , c o n c e n t r a t e d on i m p r o v i n g r o c k e t motor t e c h n o l o g y t o i m p r o v e t h e a c c u r a c y and c a p a c i t y o f t h e i r ICBM m i s s i l e s * The S o v i e t s have t h e n e c e s s a r y c omputer power t o p e r f o r m th e m a t h e m a t i c a l c a l c u l a t i o n s n e c e s s a r y t o g u i d e s p a c e c r a f t t o t h e moon and beyond (and t h e r e f o r e , m i l i t a r y m i s s i l e s as w e l l ) . . The p o s t u l a t e d S o v i e t l a g of f r o m f i v e t o t e n y e a r s i n o n - b o a r d c o m p u t e r s f o r m i l i t a r y m i s s i l e r y seems t o be a d e q u a t e l y c ompensated f o r by t h e g u a l i t a t i v e s u p e r i o r i t y o f S o v i e t r o c k e t motor t e c h n o l o g y . 7 8 The U.S. A i r F o r c e p l a c e s g r e a t r e l i a n c e on l a r g e computer s y s t e m s f o r i t s s p a r e p a r t s i n v e n t o r y c o n t r o l and f o r a i r c r a f t 7 7 A more a p p r o p r i a t e m e t h o d o l o g y would be t o i d e n t i f y t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y p h i l o s o p h y , t h e n a t t e m p t t o a p p l y s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s w i t h i n t h i s framework t o t h e s t r u c t u r e o f m i l i t a r y o r g a n i z a t i o n f o r t h e . p u r p o s e o f o p t i m i z a t i o n w i t h i n s u b s y s t e m s . 7 8 K l i t g a a r d , p. 4 1 . See a l s o S t o w e l l , c h a p t e r 5. S t o w e l l s u g g e s t s t h a t much o f t h e S o v i e t ' s s o p h i s t i c a t e d c o m p u t i n g s t o c k has been p u r c h a s e d f r o m t h e U.S., B r i t a i n , 6 o t h e r s . However, a n a l y s t s s u c h as K l i t g a a r d seem t o t h i n k t h a t t h e S o v i e t c o m p u t e r most o f t e n u s e d f o r s e n s i t i v e m i l i t a r y o r s p a c e v e n t u r e s i s a S o v i e t - d e s i g n e d model, the.BESM-6. 41 m a i n t e n a n c e s c h e d u l i n g f o r i t s s o p h i s t i c a t e d f l e e t . T h i s i s n e c e s s i t a t e d by t h e t y p e o f a i r c r a f t t h e y have c h o s e n t o u s e f o r t h e i r m i s s i o n * The f a c t t h a t t h e 0;*S. A i r F o r c e has a manpower s h o r t a g e due t o h i g h c o s t s f o r p e r s o n n e l and t h e r e l a t i v e u n p o p u l a r i t y o f m i l i t a r y s e r v i c e a s an o c c u p a t i o n f u r t h e r e x a c e r b a t e s t h e . p r o b l e m . The l o n g r a n g e , m u l t i p u r p o s e , a i r - t o - g r o u n d and a i r - t o - a i r a i r c r a f t w h i c h t h e O.S* u s e s a r e v e r y e x p e n s i v e and r e l a t i v e l y few i n number. Each a i r c r a f t h a s a h i g h v a l u e t o m i s s i o n f u l f i l l m e n t , so t h e A i r F o r c e must t r y t o m i n i m i z e t u r n - a r o u n d t i m e on r e p a i r s * S p a r e p a r t s a v a i l a b i l i t y i s c r i t i c a l t o t h e s e r v i c a b i l i t y of t h e f l e e t , and t o t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e m i s s i o n . S o v i e t a i r c r a f t t e n d t o be s i n g l e p u r p o s e , s h o r t - r a n g e c r a f t . T h e s e a r e c h e a p e r t o b u i l d b e c a u s e t h e y a r e f a r l e s s complex*„ S i n c e t h e p l a n e s a r e c h e a p e r t o b u i l d , and s i m p l e r , t h e S o v i e t s c a n a f f o r d t o b u i l d more o f them, and d e s i g n them i n m o d u l a r f a s h i o n s o t h a t t h e y c a n t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f p a r t s i n t e r c h a n g a b i l i t y * With f e w e r p a r t s and a l e s s e r v a r i e t y o f p a r t s , t h e R u s s i a n s can more e a s i l y keep on t o p o f t h e s p a r e p a r t s i n v e n t o r y p r o b l e m . 7 9 The w o r l d w i d e d i s p e r s a l o f t h e . 0, S,. A i r F o r c e f u r t h e r a g g r e v a t e s t h e A m e r i c a n s ' p r o b l e m . The A m e r i c a n s have been f o r c e d by t h e t y p e o f a i r power t h e y have c h o s e n t o a d o p t a c o m p u t e r i z e d p a r t s i n v e n t o r y and r o u t i n g s y s t e m . The S o v i e t a i r f o r c e s i m p l y d o e s n ' t need t h a t l e v e l o f c e n t r a l i z e d c o n t r o l K l i t g a a r d , p. 42. 42 t o f u l f i l l i t s d e f e n s i v e r o l e ; The a d d i t i o n o f a p o w e r f u l c e n t r a l i z e d c o mputer p a r t s i n v e n t o r y c o n t r o l system would p r o b a b l y n o t improve t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e S o v i e t a i r f o r c e a g r e a t d e a l ; i f t e c h n i c a l w o r k e r s were removed f r o m o t h e r more p r o d u c t i v e o r v i t a l t a s k s t o m a i n t a i n s u c h a s y s t e m , t h e r e s u l t c o u l d even be a n e t l o s s o r d e g r a d a t i o n o f f u n c t i o n . I t i s n o t c l e a r t h a t a r e o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a l o n g more au t o m a t e d , c e n t r a l i z e d l i n e s a s t h e A m e r i c a n s have done would e v e n be d e s i r a b l e f r o m t h e S o v i e t p o i n t o f v i e w . 8 0 G e n e r a l l y , t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y has c h o s e n t o s u b s t i t u t e manpower (which has been, f o r them, p l e n t i f u l and cheap) and o t h e r r e s o u r c e s f o r c o mputer power t o a c h i e v e d e s i r e d l e v e l s o f m i l i t a r y s t r e n g t h . 8 * I t w i l l be i n t e r e s t i n g t o s e e how t h e coming l a b o r s h o r t a g e a f f e c t s t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y manpower s u p p l y , The S o v i e t O n i o n would need t o embrace t h e same s o r t o f p o l i c y as t h e O n i t e d S t a t e s h a s c h o s e n b e f o r e i m p o r t e d c omputer e q u i p m e n t would c o n t r i b u t e g r e a t l y t o t h e i r m i l i t a r y power. K l i t g a a r d f o u n d i n h i s Rand C o r p o r a t i o n s t u d y t h a t S o v i e t m i l i t a r y s t r e n g t h would n o t be d r a m a t i c a l l y i m p r o v e d by a sudden i n f u s i o n o f 0,S, computer t e c h n o l o g y . Any g a i n s would l i k e l y be o f t h e r e s o u r c e f r e e i n g v a r i e t y and m i n o r i n s c a l e , w i t h t h e p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n o f a t m o s p h e r i c m o d e l i n g and 8 0 The S o v i e t d e f e n s e problem i s d i f f e r e n t * t a c t i c a l l y and s t r a t e g i c a l l y , f r o m t h e A m e r i c a n p r o b l e m : t h e S o v i e t s must c o n t e n d w i t h two l o n g l a n d b o a r d e r s , one o f which i s an h i s t o r i c a l i n v a s i o n r o u t e f r o m t h e west, t h e o t h e r f r o n t s d i r e c t l y w i t h an o p e n l y h o s t i l e power, a t r a d i t i o n a l enemy. 8 » K l i t g a a r d , p, 43. 43 o c e a n o g r a p h i c s i m u l a t i o n * The A m e r i c a n l e a d a p p e a r s t o be s u b s t a n t i a l h e r e * „ However, Seymour C r a y , d e s i g n e r o f t h e w o r l d ' s most p o w e r f u l computer t o d a t e , n o t e s t h a t even t h e most p o w e r f u l c omputer i s i n s u f f i c i e n t t o model t h e a t m o s p h e r e above a s m o k e s t a c k ; s o t h e . m i l i t a r y o f s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e s e two m o d e l i n g a p p l i c a t i o n s seems t o be l e s s t h a n i m m e d i a t e . 8 2 8 2 Edward K. Y a s a k i , "Wanted: More Power," D a t a m a t i o n , 24, No. 4 (1978) , p. . 189-44 CHAPTER 5 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF SOFTWARE Computer so f tware i s an aspect of S o v i e t - A m e r i c a n computer t r a d e which i s o f t e n neglec ted by p o l i t i c a l a n a l y s t s , who tend to pay more a t t e n t i o n t o the value of hardware s a l e s . The d i s c u s s i o n o f sof tware which f o l l o w s h o p e f u l l y w i l l show some of the l e s s t a n g i b l e aspects of computer t r a d e . V u l n e r a b i l i t y interdependence i s evidenced by the f a c t t h a t the Russian model of computer development f o l l o w s d i r e c t l y the IBM p a t t e r n . 8 3 now t h a t the S o v i e t s are l o c k e d i n t o t h i s d e s i g n p h i l o s o p h y , a p o l i c y change t o a n o t h e r , r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t des ign program would render u s e l e s s the accumulated body of sof tware which i s the legacy of the 360-370-303x des ign s e r i e s . As w i l l be shown, the c o s t of deve loping replacement sof tware c o u l d be very l a r g e i n d e e d . Keohane and Nye s t a t e t h a t " the v u l n e r a b i l i t y dimension of interdependence r e s t s on the r e l a t i v e a v a i l a b i l i t y and c o s t l i n e s s of the a l t e r n a t i v e s n a t i o n s f a c e . " 8 * This chapter w i l l examine the r e l a t i v e a v a i l a b i l i t y and c o s t l i n e s s of the a l t e r n a t i v e to i m p o r t i n g U . S . s o f t w a r e . Software i s a very important aspect of the computer t r a d e i s s u e f o r o ther p o l i t i c a l reasons as w e l l as f o r p r a c t i c a l ones. H o p e f u l l y , the r a t h e r lengthy examinat ion which f o l l o w s w i l l r e v e a l why the S o v i e t s might be i n t e r e s t e d i n o b t a i n i n g computer sof tware from the U . S . , and what the consequences w i l l 8 3 Refer t o pages 3-5. 8 * Keohane and Nye, p. 13. 45 be i n t e r m s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . _ I t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o e x p l o r e t h e p o s s i b l e b e n e f i t s o f s o f t w a r e t r a n s f e r b e c a u s e t h e S o v i e t s a r e i n t e r e s t e d i n p u r c h a s i n g • 0.S. computer s y s t e m s , and s o f t w a r e i s i n t e g r a l t o and more d i f f i c u l t t o p r o d u c e t h a n t h e h a r d w a r e component o f a c omputer s y s t e m . The s y s t e m s which t h e S o v i e t have s o u g h t t o a c q u i r e f r o m th e U.S. a r e t h e most a d v a n c e d t y p e s , w i t h t h e most s o p h i s t i c a t e d s o f t w a r e * Hardware c a n n o t p e r f o r m a t i t s p o t e n t i a l w i t h o u t s o p h i s t i c a t e d s o f t w a r e . W e s t e r n o b s e r v e r s c i t e a ' s o f t w a r e gap' o f as much a s t e n y e a r s between t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e S o v i e t Union* 8 5 A l s o , t h e r e c e n t l y announced E y a d s e r i e s o f c o m p u t e r s p r o d u c e d i n CMEA c o u n t r i e s a p p e a r s t o be f u l l y s o f t w a r e c o m p a t i b l e w i t h th e IBM 360 s e r i e s o f c o m p u t e r s made i n U n i t e d S t a t e s * , Computing equipment i s complex enough t o s u p p o r t th e i n t u i t i v e s u g g e s t i o n t h a t t h e c o m p a t i b i l i t y was n o t a c c i d e n t a l o r c o i n c i d e n t a l , and s o f t w a r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s have a r o l e t o p l a y i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h i s s i t u a t i o n * The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e d e s i g n s i m i l a r i t y and program c o m p a t i b i l i t y o f t h e Eyad s e r i e s and t h e IBM 360 (and t h e r e f o r e , models 370 and t h e most r e c e n t s e r i e s , 303x) i s t o be a p p r e c i a t e d f r o m t h e f a c t t h a t t h o u s a n d s o f 360 c o m p u t e r s a r e i n d a i l y o p e r a t i o n w o r l d w i d e ( t h i s i m p l i e s t h a t a l a r g e body of p r o v e n s o f t w a r e e x i s t s ) and from t h e f a c t t h a t t h e a t t e m p t e d S o v i e t p u r c h a s e s o f U.S,,computer s y s t e m s i n c l u d e s 8 5 T u r n and N i m i t z , p, 34, 46 a b o u t f o u r c o m p u t e r s from the 360 (and i t s d e s c e n d e n t , t h e model 370) s e r i e s w i t h s o f t w a r e . 8 6 A l s o , a p r o s p e c t u s o f s o f t w a r e t o be o f f e r e d w i t h t h e Byad computer s y s t e m s l i s t s s u p p o r t f o r t h e most commonly used O.S. and E u r o p e a n programming l a n g u a g e s . 8 7 I t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e S o v i e t computer d e v e l o p m e n t program i n c l u d e s a t l e a s t t h e p o t e n t i a l t o i m p o r t s o f t w a r e t e c h n o l o g y f r o m W e s t e r n n a t i o n s . . I n o r d e r t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e i r i n t e n t i o n s , a d e f i n i t i o n o f ' s o f t w a r e ' w i l l be g i v e n , f o l l o w e d by an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e i m m e d i a t e b e n e f i t s t o be o b t a i n e d by i m p o r t i n g s o f t w a r e r a t h e r t h a n w r i t i n g i t . The t e r m ' s o f t w a r e ' has been used i n t h i s p a p e r as a g e n e r a l term t o d e n o t e t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f p r o g r a m s r e q u i r e d t o make a computer an a c c e s s i b l e , u s e f u l t o o l . 8 8 Computer programs a r e d e t a i l e d s e t s o f i n s t r u c t i o n s which t e l l how a s p e c i f i c p r o b l e m i s t o be s o l v e d by a co m p u t e r . T h e r e a r e t h r e e c l a s s e s of programs w i t h i n t h e g e n e r a l c a t e g o r y • s o f t w a r e * : u t i l i t y p r o g r a m s , s u p e r v i s o r p r o g r a m s ( o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m s ) , and a p p l i c a t i o n s p rograms. A b r i e f o u t l i n e o f e a c h c l a s s o f s o f t w a r e i s r e q u i r e d t o show t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f e a c h 8 6 F o r a l i s t o f p r o p o s e d s a l e s t o t h e S o v i e t O n i o n , see a p p e n d i x A. A l s o , IBM s o f t w a r e i s i n t h e p u b l i c domain. 8 7 S o v i e t C y b e r n e t i c Beview, v o l . 3, p. 37. 8 8 DI W; Rosy, A i r F o r c e , Command :and C o n t r o l , - I n f o r m a t i o n P r o c e s s i n g i n t h e 1980*5: T r e n d s ^ i n S o f t w a r e T e c h n o l o g y ( S a n t a H o n i c a : t h e Band Corporation7 B-1012-PB, 1974), p; 24; 47 c l a s s t o t h e s y s t e m as a w h o l e * 8 9 Computer c e n t r a l p r o c e s s i n g u n i t s ( t h e p a r t o f t h e s y s t e m w h i c h p e r f o r m s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s and t h e l o g i c a l o p e r a t i o n s ) a r e b a s i c a l l y n e t w o r k s o f l o g i c a l s w i t c h e s ( o r ' g a t e s ' ) w h i c h , when an a p p r o p r i a t e s e q u e n c e o f s w i t c h s t a t e s i s p r e s c r i b e d , c a n be u s e d t o r e p r e s e n t many l o g i c a l o p e r a t i o n s * , A program i s a p r e s c r i p t i o n o f a s e q u e n c e . o f l o g i c a l s w i t c h s t a t e s n e c e s s a r y and s u f f i c i e n t t o s o l v e a s p e c i f i c p r o b l e m . The program which t h e c e n t r a l p r o c e s s i n g u n i t (cpu) u n d e r s t a n d s i s r e p r e s e n t e d by a s t r i n g o f o n e s and z e r o s which i s t e r m e d m a c h i n e l a n g u a g e , 9 0 The machine l a n g u a g e program r e q u i r e s a l a r g e number o f b i n a r y d i g i t s t o become m e a n i n g f u l t o t h e c p u , s i n c e t h e program must s p e c i f y t h e s t a t e o f a l l o f t h e l o g i c a l s w i t c h e s i t u s e s , . The s t r i n g o f o n e s and z e r o s i s s u b d i v i d e d i n t o g r o u p i n g s w i t h d i f f e r e n t meanings t o t h e cpu* Some s u b s t r i n g s i n d i c a t e t h a t an a c t i o n i s t o be p e r f o r m e d s u c h a s 'add two numbers' - t h e s e 8 9 A d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e v e r y r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s o f • f i r m w a r e ' and ' m i c r o c o d e p r o g r a m m a b i l i t y • i s o m i t t e d h e r e as i t t e n d s t o u n d u l y b l u r t h e d i s t i n c t i o n between h a r d w a r e and s o f t w a r e * These i s s u e a r e a s r e g u i r e f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h , as t h e y r e p r e s e n t a ' n e x t l e v e l ' t y p e o f t e c h n o l o g y improvement which i s now b e i n g d i f f u s e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e 0,S* i n d u s t r y * The S o v i e t s have n o t been a b l e t o d u p l i c a t e t h i s t e c h n o l o g y on a wide s c a l e t o d a t e ; b u t t h e y have g i v e n e v i d e n c e o f t h e i r i n t e r e s t i n i t w i t h r e s p e c t t o Eyad-2 d e v e l o p m e n t , 9 0 L o g i c a l l y , t h e ones and z e r o s c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e s t a t e o f t h e g a t e s i n t h a t a one r e p r e s e n t s a l o g i c s w i t c h s t a t e o f "on" and a z e r o r e p r e s e n t s an " o f f " f o r any g i v e n s w i t c h . T h e r e a r e f i v e b a s i c t y p e s o f g a t e s from which a l l computer f u n c t i o n s c a n be g e n e r a t e d * These a r e AND, NOT, NAND, NOB, and OB*. T h e s e f u n c t i o n s can be w i r e d f r o m o n l y t h r e e b a s i c c i r c u i t s u s i n g t h e r u l e s o f B o o l e a n a l g e b r a . , See, f o r example, J i m Ashe, E l e c t r o n i c s S e l f - T a u g h t (Blue B i d g e Summit, PA: TAB B o o k s , 1971), c h a p t e r 5> F o r an e x p l a n a t i o n o f how B o o l e a n a l g e b r a i s a p p l i e d t o e l e c t r o n i c c i r c u i t s t o p r o d u c e a c o mputer, s e e W i l l i a m C. H o i t o n , "The L a r g e - s c a l e I n t e g r a t i o n o f M i c r o e l e c t r o n i c C i r c u i t s , " S c i e n t i f i c A m e r i c a n , 237, No. 9 (1977) , pp. 82-94. . 48 are c a l l e d o p c o d e s , 9 1 Other s u b s t r i n g s indicate.where data are to be found, these are c a l l e d 'addresses'. Other s u b s t r i n g s r e p r e s e n t raw data ( c a l l e d 'immediate a d d r e s s e s ' ) . Humans do not e a s i l y comprehend the p o i n t of programs represented i n machine language, so they have i n v e n t e d a symbolic way to r e p r e s e n t machine code. T h i s encoded symbolic language i s c a l l e d assembly language! (because i t i s assembled i n t o machine code), and i t r e g u i r e s a t r a n s l a t o r t o render i t i n t o machine comprehensible code. The n a t u r a l t h i n g t o do i s to have a program to perform t h i s t r a n s l a t i o n ; t h i s program i s c a l l e d an assembler. For example, a program might i n s t r u c t the cpu to add a g i v e n number, 3, to the number s t o r e d i n some temporary l o c a t i o n and to p l a c e the r e s u l t back i n the temporary l o c a t i o n ( c a l l e d a r e g i s t e r . ) In machine language, t h i s i n s t r u c t i o n might look l i k e t h i s : 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 . A program c o n s i s t s of hundreds or thousands of s t r i n g s l i k e t h i s catenated together. The assmebler allows the programmer to use a l p h a n u m e r i c 9 2 mnemonic codes t o r e p r e s e n t opcodes, addresses and data. The assembler a l l o w s a programmer to generate the s t r i n g of ones and zeros of our example by w r i t i n g : 9 1 Derived from 'o p e r a t i o n code'., 9 2 The term 'alphanumeric' r e f e r s t o the s e t of c h a r a c t e r s composed of the a l p h a b e t i c c h a r a c t e r s A through Z and the numerals 0 through 9, 49 ADI 03 (which means "add i m m e d i a t e t o r e g i s t e r " ) * A c o n s i d e r a b l e improvement i n r e a d a b i l i t y i s o b v i o u s * The a s s e m b l e r i s an example o f a u t i l i t y program. . The p r o c e s s o f w r i t i n g a program and v e r i f y i n g t h e c o r r e c t f u n c t i o n t h e r e o f (debugging) i s v e r y t i m e c o n s u m i n g (when w r i t i n g i n a s s e m b l y l a n g u a g e ; when w r i t i n g i n machine l a n g u a g e i t i s p r o h i b i t i v e l y so);* D e b u g g i n g t a k e s up. a s much a s 85% o f a programmer's t i m e . . Thus when e a r l y w o r k e r s i n t h e f i e l d , who programmed i n machine l a n g u a g e , r e a l i z e d t h e y were o f t e n d u p l i c a t i n g e a c h o t h e r ' s e f f o r t s t o s o l v e common t y p e s o f p r o b l e m s , t h e y d e v e l o p e d " l i b r a r i e s " o f common s o l u t i o n s . Such s o l u t i o n s r e s o l v e d common m a t h e m a t i c a l p r o b l e m s s u c h as f i g u r i n g s q u a r e r o o t s , c a l c u l a t i o n o f t r i g o n o m e t r i c f u n c t i o n v a l u e s , and common d a t a h a n d l i n g p r o b l e m s s u c h a s r e a d i n g d a t a from c a r d s o r w r i t i n g r e s u l t s on p a p e r . . These l i b r a r y r o u t i n e s a r e a n o t h e r s o r t o f u t i l i t y s o f t w a r e . E v e n t u a l l y a s y s t e m was worked o u t between a l l u s e r s o f common models of m a c h i n e s t o s h a r e t h e s e l i b r a r y s o l u t i o n s , t h u s f r e e i n g programming r e s o u r c e s t o s o l v e o t h e r p r o b l e m s . E a r l y c o m p u t e r s were l i m i t e d i n t e r m s o f memory s p a c e (where t h e programs and d a t a a r e s t o r e d i n t h e m a c h i n e . w h i l e i t i s w o r k i n g on them) , p r o c e s s i n g s p e e d and r e l i a b i l i t y , . I n p u t and o u t p u t e q u i p m e n t such as t h e punched c a r d r e a d e r and punch a r e s l o w e r t h a n t h e p r o c e s s o r s . . B u n n i n g a j o b on t h e computer i n v o l v e d a v e r y i n e f f i c i e n t p r o c e d u r e : 50 1. ' b o o t s t r a p ' 9 3 the system l o a d e r program from cards or tape, 2. read the assembler program from ca r d s , 3. read the a p p l i c a t i o n program to be assembled from cards, 4. c o l l e c t the assembled program from the card punch, 5. c o l l e c t c a r d decks of l i b r a r y programs r e q u i r e d by the a p p l i c a t i o n program, 6. load assembled a p p l i c a t i o n program deck, l i b r a r y decks, and data decks i n t o the.computer, 7. run program, c o l l e c t r e s u l t s from car d punch* 8. and f i n a l l y , l i s t output decks on an o f f l i n e p r i n t e r . 9 * And of c o u r s e , only one person c o u l d use the computer at a time. As computer hardware became more e f f i c i e n t (both f a s t e r and more r e l i a b l e i n terms of the number of minutes or hours d u r i n g which i t would run without breaking down), more e f f i c i e n t methods of d e a l i n g with the p h y s i c a l h a n d l i n g of programming m a t e r i a l were developed.. These.developments were programs, of course, and are grouped with the u t i l i t y programs. S o - c a l l e d h i g h e r order languages, which allow programs to be w r i t t e n i n a symbolic form more a k i n t o the type of problem to be s o l v e d , were developed to i n c r e a s e programmer p r o d u c t i v i t y and t o f a c i l i t a t e , the understanding of programs by persons other than the one who wrote them.. These languages, while 9 3 'Bootstrap' i s a f u n c t i o n wired i n t o the machine. A bootstrap l o a d e r i s a very simple program wired i n t o the computer which can be executed by the p r e s s i n g of a system i n t i a l i z a t i o n button* These programs u s u a l l y read data from a p r e s p e c i f i e d s t o r a g e . u n i t and l o a d i t i n t o the machine s t a r i n g at. e i t h e r the very f i r s t or l a s t memory l o c a t i o n . . The l a s t i n s t r u c t i o n of a b o o t s t r a p program i s a t r a n s f e r of program c o n t r o l t o the f i r s t i n s t r u c t i o n of the program j u s t loaded., 9 4 A d e v i c e i s ' o f f l i n e ' i f i t i s not under the c o n t r o l of the c e n t r a l computer system, t h a t i s , i f i t r e g u i r e s an operator to i n i t i a t e a procedure on some equipment not p a r t of the c e n t r a l computer system. 51 i m p r o v i n g t h e a b i l i t y o f programmers t o w r i t e a l g o r i t h m s " (ALGOL and FORTRAN r e s e m b l e d m a t h e m a t i c a l n o t a t i o n l i k e a l g e b r a , COBOL i s an E n g l i s h - l i k e n a r r a t i v e l a n g u a g e d e s i g n e d f o r b u s i n e s s a p p l i c a t i o n s ) , r e q u i r e d a u t i l i t y program c a l l e d a c o m p i l e r t o t r a n s l a t e t h e w r i t t e n code i n t o machine l a n g u a g e . Each h i g h e r o r d e r l a n g u a g e r e g u i r e s i t s own c o m p i l e r . I f t h e example i n s t r u c t i o n g i v e n above was t h e c o n s t a n t p a r t o f t h e a l g e b r a i c e q u a t i o n : y=x+3. t h e h i g h l e v e l l a n g u a g e would a l l o w t h e c h a r a c t e r s " +3 " t o r e p r e s e n t t h e machine l a n g u a g e s t r i n g o f ones and z e r o s . The c o m p i l e r program t r a n s l a t e s a s t a t e m e n t w r i t t e n a s "y=x+3" i n t o t h e a p p r o p r i a t e s t r i n g s o f ones and z e r o s t o p e r f o r m t h e c a l c u l a t i o n . 9 5 The term • a l g o r i t h m ' means a seguence o f i n s t r u c t i o n s r e q u i r e d t o a c h i e v e a s o l u t i o n t o a g i v e n p roblem* 9 6 Computer 'memory' i s f u n d a m e n t a l t o t h e o p e r a t i o n o f c o m p u t e r s ( t e c h n i c a l l y , s t o r e d program computers) o f t h e t y p e t h a t t h i s p a p e r i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h * The i n t e r e s t e d r e a d e r i s r e f e r r e d t o t h e f i r s t few c h a p t e r s o f J o s e p h Weizenbaum, Computer Powe rr_and Human R e a s o n : -From; Judgement t o C a l c u l a t i o n (San F r a n c i s c o : W* H, Freeman and Company, 1976), f o r a d i s c u s s i o n of t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e b a s i c c o n c e p t s o f l o g i c b e h i n d s t o r e d program c o m p u t e r s . t An a n a l o g y between c o m p u t e r memory and t h e f a m i l i a r a u d i o t a p e r e c o r d e r m i g h t be i n s t r u c t i v e * Computer memory can be r e a d ( p l a y e d ) , o r w r i t t e n ( r e c o r d e d ) on t h e s t o r a g e medium (tape)... The s t o r e d i n f o r m a t i o n c an be r e c a l l e d a t w i l l , a l t e r e d o r d e s t r o y e d w i t h o u t a l t e r i n g t h e p h y s i c a l s u b s t a n c e o f t h e s t o r a g e media. •Memory' i n a computer u s u a l l y r e f e r s t o h i g h s p e e d e l e c t r o n i c c i r c u i t s which c a n s t o r e i n f o r m a t i o n ( s e m i c o n d u c t o r memory), o r , i n o l d e r m a c h i n e s , memory i s a m a t r i x o f t i n y m a g n e t i z a b l e r i n g s c a l l e d c o r e o r c o r e memory. 52 as machine s i z e (memory) 9 6 and speed f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e d , l a r g e r and l a r g e r s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m s were w r i t t e n f o r more complex problems. The s i z e of the programs expressed i n the number of c a r d s to be handled i n order t o perform the given t a s k became to o l a r g e f o r the human operator t o handle without frequent e r r o r , so u t i l i t y programs were w r i t t e n to e l i m i n a t e the need f o r human i n t e r v e n t i o n i n the i n t e r m e d i a t e steps of the job's e x e c u t i o n . L i b r a r y r o u t i n e s and other u t i l i t y programs were s t o r e d on magnetic storage d e v i c e s , and a s u p e r v i s o r program handled the r e t r i e v a l and l o a d i n g of the r e q u i r e d r o u t i n e s , saved the i n t e r m e d i a t e output from assemblers ( e l i m i n a t i n g the punching of i n t e r i m decks of c a r d s ) , and a u t o m a t i c a l l y executed the program, Su p e r v i s o r programs were great time savers and e l i m i n a t e d many e r r o r s due t o human ha n d l i n g e r r o r , and, as they have evolved i n t o o p e r a t i n g systems, have become as c r u c i a l to system performance as hardware. Before s u p e r v i s o r s were developed, a programmer would need to f o l l o w the s t e p s given above t o run a job; i f there was an e r r o r at any p o i n t , the e n t i r e process might have to be repeated. Subsequent users of the same a p p l i c a t i o n s program had to perform the:procedure from the beginning f o r each use, a s u p e r v i s o r reduced the number of steps to the f o l l o w i n g : l o a d the deck c o n t a i n i n g the a p p l i c a t i o n program w r i t t e n i n a high l e v e l language, data, and c o n t r o l c a r d s ; run the j o b , and c o l l e c t the p r i n t e d r e c o r d from the p r i n t e r s a l l other manipulation of i n t e r i m r e s u l t s and programs i s handled by the s u p e r v i s o r program, which remains i n 53 the system ready t o process the next user's job* As hardware speed and memory s i z e continued to i n c r e a s e , s u p e r v i s o r programs evolved i n t o o p e r a t i n g systems, which c o n t r o l a l l o c a t i o n of system resources so e f f i c i e n t l y t h a t many user programs c o u l d be r e s i d e n t and executing i n the machine s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . 9 7 Operating systems today i n the O.S. allow complex computers to operate i n t h i s • t i m e - s h a r i n g ' mode, which a l l o w s f o r much more e f f i c i e n t matching of the speeds of the d i f f e r e n t components o f the system. A ti m e - s h a r i n g system can have many users a t t e r m i n a l s - video s c r e e n s , t e l e t y p e s , remote r e a d e r / p r i n t e r s , e t c . - each working as i f the machine were ded i c a t e d to h i s e x c l u s i v e use, and a l s o run the t r a d i t i o n a l punched car d jobs with scores o f jobs and us e r s o p e r a t i n g i n apparent s i m u l t a n e i t y . Operating systems coupled with extremely high p r o c e s s i n g speed make p o s s i b l e * r e a l - t i m e • 9 a mode which i s r e q u i r e d f o r modern communications c o n t r o l , data base management, and process c o n t r o l a p p l i c a t i o n s . . O perating systems were f i r s t developed as> a response to i n c r e a s e d workload and i n c r e a s e d hardware c a p a b i l i t y * , U t i l i t y programs have been generated t o optimize both machine and human i n t e r a c t i o n with the c e n t r a l processor u n i t , . U t i l i t y r o u t i n e s can respond t o i n c r e a s e d hardware f u n c t i o n i n ways which 9 7 That i s , they appear t o be executing simultaneously;; In f a c t , each job shares the system resources, t a k i n g i t s t u r n according t o the system's s c h e d u l i n g a l g o r i t h m . See note 57 on ti m e - s h a r i n g . 9 8 See note 72. 54 i n c r e a s e o v e r a l l s y s t e m p r o d u c t i v i t y * i n example i s f o u n d i n t h e h i g h e r o r d e r l a n g u a g e s which have been w r i t t e n t o s p e c i f i c a l l y o p t i m i z e f i l e m a i n t a i n e n c e and a c c e s s ( L I S P and S LIP a r e l i s t p r o c e s s i n g l a n g u a g e s which p e r f o r m t h i s way). T h e s e l a n g u a g e s f a c i l i t a t e s o l u t i o n of p r o b l e m s as l i s t p r o c e s s i n g , g r a p h i c s , m a t r i x a l g e b r a , and s o on. The t i m e s a v i n g s i s i l l u s t r a t e d by t h e s o l u t i o n o f a m a t r i x a l g e b r a p r o b l e m w h i c h may t a k e t h o u s a n d s o f i n s t r u c t i o n s i n a s s e m b l y c o d e , o r h u n d r e d s o f l i n e s o f code i n a h i g h e r o r d e r g e n e r a l p u r p o s e l a n g u a g e l i k e FORTRAN o r m e r e l y s c o r e s o f i n s t r u c t o n s i n a l a n g u a g e w i t h s p e c i a l i z e d m a t r i x f u n c t i o n s s u c h as i P L . The r e m a i n i n g c l a s s o f s o f t w a r e i s c a l l e d a p p l i c a t i o n s software;. The r a n g e o f a c t u a l and p o t e n t i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s i s t r u l y v a s t , and i s e x p e c t e d t o expand.. A p p l i c a t i o n s programs c o n t r o l s p a c e f l i g h t and a i r l i n e s r e s e r v a t i o n s s y s t e m s , and c o n t r i b u t e t o m e d i c a l r e s e a r c h , a c c o u n t i n g , and management i n f o r m a t i o n s s y s t e m s . , A p p l i c a t i o n s e x i s t i n t h e a r e a s o f m u s i c , g r a p h i c s and e s o t e r i c f i e l d s such a s r e s e a r c h on a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i g e n c e - . Programs i n t h i s c l a s s a l s o a i d t h e e x p l o r a t i o n f o r o i l , a s s i s t i n t h e e n g i n e e r i n g and d e s i g n of a wide a r r a y o f p r o d u c t s , f r o m m i c r o s c o p i c e l e c t r o n i c computer c i r c u i t s t o huge o f f i c e b u i l d i n g s , s h i p s , and a i r c r a f t . The s c o p e o f c o n c e i v a b l e a p p l i c a t i o n s programs seems t o be l i m i t e d o n l y by human i m a g i n a t i o n * However, n o t a l l a p p l i c a t i o n s programs w h i c h c o u l d be i m a g i n e d w i l l be i m p l e m e n t e d a s s o o n a s t h e y a r e c o n c e i v e d . The p r a c t i c a l l i m i t i n g f a c t o r s a r e t h e c o s t o f 55 software and hardware (some programs are too b i g f o r the equipment which e x i s t s a t the time the a p p l i c a t i o n i s co n c e i v e d ) , and the laws of p h y s i c s which bound the performance o f e l e c t r o n i c c i r c u i t r y (some programs, although l o g i c a l l y c o n c e i v a b l e , would r e q u i r e equipment to perform at t h e o r e t i c a l l y i m p o s s i b l e speed). T h i s p o i n t i s important, f o r i t suggests t h a t software development i s dependent on hardware a v a i l i b i l i t y * S i g n i f i c a n t developments i n software p a r a l l e l the development of hardware g e n e r a t i o n s : F i r s t g e n e r a t i o n . . Software development i n c l u d e d machine language, some low volume I/O (Input/Output) , and u t i l i t i e s . This g e n e r a t i o n l a s t e d u n t i l roughly the mid-1950' s. Second generation;* I n t e r p r e t e r s , high order languages, assemblers, and l i b r a r i e s of u t i l i t y s u broutines* Lasted u n t i l the e a r l y 1960's. . T h i r d generation., S u p e r v i s o r s , program l o a d i n g , l i n k a g e , I/O c o n t r o l , f i l e maintenance;, u n t i l the l a t e 1960's* . Fourth g e n e r a t i o n (concensus has not been reached on what c o n s t i t u t e s f o u r t h g e n e r a t i o n software.) Data base management systems, t i m e - s h a r i n g , network software, v i r t u a l memory schemes* 9 9 The Ryad computer hardware i s s t i l l roughly i n the t h i r d g e n e r a t i o n , not yet capable of supporting t i m e - s h a r i n g o p e r a t i o n s . "There a r e reasons t o b e l i e v e t h a t software development i n t h e . S o v i e t Union i s f o l l o w i n g the same p a t t e r n as i t f o l l o w e d i n the U,S., but with a time displacement 9 9 Rosy, p, 36. V i r t u a l memory i s a method of moving a user's memory requirement onto high speed p e r i p h e r a l s t o r a g e when he i s not using i t . The scheme works to gi v e the user the i l l u s i o n of having u n l i m i t e d a v a i l a b l e memory, hence ' v i r t u a l memory'. 56 d i c t a t e d by hardware a v a i l a b i l i t y . " » 0 0 The s o f t w a r e gap, t h e n , would seem t o be f r o m f i v e t o t e n y e a r s wide., E a c h i n c r e a s e i n h a r d w a r e c a p a b i l i t y i s d e p e n d e n t on a d v a n c e s i n s y s t e m s o f t w a r e f o r t h e improvement t o be f u l l y e x p l o i t e d , T i m e - s h a r i n g s o f t w a r e i s r e g u i r e d t o f u l l y u t i l i z e h i g h s p e e d f o u r t h g e n e r a t i o n h a r d w a r e , and h i g h s p e e d h a r d w a r e i s r e q u i r e d f o r t i m e - s h a r i n g . „ In some c a s e s , i f t h e e q u i p m e n t i s f a s t enough, s e c o n d o r t h i r d g e n e r a t i o n h a r d w a r e c a n r e a c h h i g h e r p e r f o r m a n c e l e v e l s u s i n g n e x t g e n e r a t i o n s o f t w a r e . . I f t h e r e i s no p r o c e s s o r h a r d w a r e f a s t enough t o s u p p o r t r e a l t i m e o p e r a t i o n s , c e r t a i n r e a l t i m e a p p l i c a t i o n s c a n n o t be d e v e l o p e d , t e s t e d , o r i m p l e m e n t e d . T h i s would e f f e c t t h e a b i l i t y t o d e v e l o p s t r a t e g i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t s y s t e m s s u c h a s ABM g u i d a n c e s y s t e m s a s w e l l a s l a r g e management i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m s s u c h as t h e p r o p o s e d S o v i e t AMS and NAS, The s i z e o f p r o g r a m s and t h e c o s t r e l a t i v e t o t h e s y s t e m as a whole i s i m p o r t a n t t o t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e r o l e o f s o f t w a r e . A c o m p l i c a t e d s e t o f p r o g r a m s s u c h as an o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m d e v e l o p s o v e r t i m e , as s y s t e m s programmers l e a r n t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s and o p e r a t i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e h a r d w a r e . U s u a l l y t h e c h a n g e s a r e . i n c r e m e n t a l i n n a t u r e and t e n d t o a c c u m u l a t e o v e r t i m e , s i n c e v e r y few p e r s o n s c o u l d g r a s p t h e t o t a l i t y o f an o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m . . A r e l e v a n t example f o r t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t h e o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m o f t h e IBM 360 c o m p u t e r , which i s : known as OS/360., The s i z e o f t h i s o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m has been 10 0 T u r n and N i m i t z , p. 54* 57 e s t i m a t e d a t 5,000,000 i n s t r u c t i o n s i n 1968,; The manpower r e q u i r e m e n t t o r e p l i c a t e t h i s p r o d i g o u s program has been e s t i m a t e d a t from 5,000 t o 13,000 m a n - y e a r s . * ° * A n o t h e r s o u r c e e s t i m a t e s t h a t i t t a k e s 20,000 man-years t o w r i t e 5 m i l l i o n i n s t r u c t i o n s f r o m s c r a t c h . . T h i s s o u r c e a l s o s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e h i s t o r y o f s o f t w a r e " d e v e l o p m e n t i n d i c a t e s t h a t o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m s grow i n t e r m s o f t h e t o t a l number o f i n s t r u c t i o n s an o r d e r o f m a g n i t u d e e v e r y f i v e y e a r s . 1 0 2 Thus, OS/370 which was i n t r o d u c e d a b o u t 1973 f o r t h e System 370 models o f IBM c o m p u t e r s , s h o u l d have 50 m i l l i o n i n s t r u c t i o n s , and by 1983 t h e p r o j e c t e d number o f i n s t r u c t i o n s f o r an o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m i d e s c e n d e n t f r o m t h i s l i n e c o u l d r e a c h f i v e b i l l i o n i n s t r u c t i o n s ; 1 0 3 A program o f t h i s s i z e , a c c o r d i n g t o Massam, would r e q u i r e some 2 m i l l i o n man-years t o w r i t e f r o m s c r a t c h . The r e l a t i v e c o s t o f s o f t w a r e t o hardware i s i l l u s t r a t e d by t h e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e 0VS. . A i r F o r c e c o s t s f o r i t s 'World Wide M i l i t a r y Command and C o n t r o l System': $50 - 100 m i l l i o n f o r h a rdware; $722 m i l l i o n f o r s o f t w a r e d e v e l o p m e n t , The c o s t o f s o f t w a r e f o r c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s i n t h e O.S. i s now f i q u r e d t o be t h e most e x p e n s i v e i t e m i n t h e c o s t o f a computer s y s t e m , s o m e t i m e s as h i g h a s 90% o f t h e t o t a l b u d g e t * , As t h e c o s t p e r 1 0 1 Rosy, p. 45. 102 Thomas Massam, Computer F r o n t e i r s ( S a p h o r i n , S w i t z e r l a n d : G e o r g i P u b l i s h i n g Co., 1975), p. 152. 1 0 3 T h i s number does seem a b i t l a r g e , s i n c e t h e r e q u i r e d s t o r a g e would be some some f i v e h undred t i m e s more t h a n t h e s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y o f t h e computer a t OBC. T h e r e f o r e , f o r t h i s e s t i m a t e t h e t e r m ' o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m * i s t a k e n t o mean a l l l a n g u a g e p r o c e s s o r s , u t i l i t y p r o g r a m s , l i b r a r y r o u t i n e s , and so on. 58 c a l c u l a t i o n i s r e d u c e d by a d v a n c e s i n hardware t e c h n o l o g y , t h e need f o r a d d i t i o n a l s o f t w a r e t o use t h e i n c r e a s e d c o m p u t i n g power r i s e s , and t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f s o f t w a r e t o h a r d w a r e e s c a l a t e s . More programmers a r e r e q u i r e d t o w r i t e s o f t w a r e , so p e r s o n n e l c o s t s r i s e . The number o f t e c h n i c i a n s r e q u i r e d t o d e v e l o p s o f t w a r e i s v e r y l a r g e * w hich w i l l be a v e r y i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r S o v i e t p l a n n e r s as t h e y p u r s u e t h e g o a l o f a u t o m a t e d s t a t e i p l a n n i n g . The l a b o r - i n t e n s i v e n a t u r e o f s o f t w a r e d e v e l o p m e n t w i l l be p a r t i c u l a r l y p r o b l e m a t i c f o r S o v i e t p l a n n e r s g i v e n t h e i m p e n d i n g l a b o r s h o r t a g e s . S z u p r o w i c z n o t e s t h a t t h e S o v i e t O n i o n seems t o be f a c i n g a s h o r t a g e o f t r a i n e d p e r s o n n e l s i m i l a r t o t h e O.S, i n t h e 1960*s, when t h e e x p a n s i o n o f t h e O . S . computer base o u t s t r i p p e d t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e e d u c a t i o n a l s y s t e m t o s u p p l y t e c h n i c i a n s , ; . 1 °* The l a r g e s t n e t w o r k o f c o m p u t e r s i n t h e O.S. ( t h e ARPA network) h a s a b o u t f i f t y d a t a c e n t e r s l i n k e d t o g e t h e r ; t h e S o v i e t p l a n s f o r t h e AMS/NAS network c a l l s f o r a n e t w o r k o f 18,000 d a t a c e n t e r s . 1 0 5 O b v i o u s l y , t h e r e i s g o i n g t o be a l a r g e amount o f work t o be done on s o f t w a r e i o • B. 0. S z u p r o w i c z , "Computers From Communist C o u n t r i e s , " D a t a m a t i o n , 22, Noi 9 ( 1 9 7 6 ) , p,* 80, l o s The D e f e n s e D e p a r t m e n t ' s A d v a n c e d R e s e a r c h P r o j e c t s Agency s u p p o r t s a wide ra n g e o f b a s i c r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t i e s , many o f w h i c h a r e n o t d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o m i l i t a r y g o a l s . . The ARPA computer network l i n k s computer c e n t e r s a t u n i v e r s i t i e s and r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r i e s a c r o s s t h e O n i t e d S t a t e s * W h i l e t h i s n etwork i s n o t e x a c t l y i d e n t i c a l t o a c o m m e r c i a l network scheme s u c h as t h e AMS/NAS p r o p o s a l , t h e c o o r d i n a t i o n o f d a t a t r a n s f e r i s a p r o b l e m common t o any n e t w o r k ; and t h e ARPA network r e p r e s e n t s p r a c t i c a l e x p e r i e n c e i n n e t w o r k s which t h e S o v i e t s have n o t had. . See Massam, p, 124. 59 d e v e l o p m e n t , which w i l l r e q u i r e a g r e a t number o f programmers. The p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e S o v i e t s w i l l need and d e s i r e t o i m p o r t IBM c o m p a t i b l e s o f t w a r e from o t h e r n a t i o n s seems d i s t i n c t ; * F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e S o v i e t p r a c t i c e of l e a v i n g s o f t w a r e d e v e l o p m e n t and m a i n t e n a n c e t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l d a t a c e n t e r e x a c e r b a t e s t h e demand f o r s c a r c e p e r s o n n e l r e s o u r c e s . 1 0 6 i n t h e w o r s t c a s e f o r t h e Automated Management S y s t e m , 18,000 d a t a c e n t e r s c o u l d be engaged i n i d e n t i c a l programming e f f o r t s * _ S o v i e t s o f t w a r e c o s t s have been e s t i m a t e d a t "more t h a n 50% o f t h e t o t a l c o s t o f d e v e l o p i n g computer s y s t e m s . 1 1 * or i t i s f u r t h e r e s t i m a t e d t h a t r e v i s i n g and u p g r a d i n g t h e s o f t w a r e f o r t h e Byad-1 t o t a k e f u l l a d v a n t a g e of t h e h a r d w a r e improvement o f t h e Byad-2 s y s t e m s w i l l r e q u i r e 1,6000 - 2,000 man-years. The s m a l l e r p e r c e n t a q e o f t h e S o v i e t s o f t w a r e c o s t p r o b a b l y r e f l e c t s t h e h i g h e r c o s t f o r t h e h a r d w a r e component, as r e p o r t e d by S z u p r o w i c z , 1 0 8 p l u s t h e a b s e n c e o f a c o m p e t e t i v e wage p r i c i n g s y s t e m i n t h e S o v i e t economy. I f t h i s i n v e s t m e n t i n manpower r e s o u r c e s i s t o be a p p l i e d f o r e a c h o f t h e s e v e r a l t h o u s a n d c o m p u t e r s i n t h e Byad s e r i e s , t h e l a b o r c o s t becomes v e r y l a r g e . The a d v a n t a g e . o f i m p o r t i n g s y s t e m s s o f t w a r e , t h e n , s h o u l d be f a i r l y o b v i o u s . The huge d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s o f g e n e r a t i n g an 106 T u r n amd N i m i t z , p* 17. 1 0 7 The C u r r e n t D i g e s t o f : t h e - S o v i e t P r e s s XXX No. 24, p. 24. ~ x l o a S z u p r o w i c z , " W o r l d ' s Top M a r k e t s , " p, 153* S z u p r o w i c z r e p o r t s t h a t an " a v e r a g e " computer s y s t e m c o s t s t h e S o v i e t end-u s e r a b o u t 15 t i m e s more t h a n t h e " a v e r a g e " s y s t e m c o s t s t h e A m e r i c a n e n d - u s e r , I t i s n o t c l e a r i f t h e " a v e r a g e " s y s t e m i n e a c h c a s e has t h e same l e v e l o f c o m p u t i n g power,. 60 o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m a r e a v o i d e d ; f u r t h e r m o r e , a p u r c h a s e d s o f t w a r e s y s t e m w i l l have been p r o v e n i n t h e f i e l d by o t h e r c u s t o m e r s . An a d d i t i o n a l bonus i s t h a t v e n d o r s o f t e n a g r e e t o a c e r t a i n amount o f s o f t w a r e m a i n t e n a n c e o f o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m s . . T h i s amounts t o g e t t i n g t h e . i n c r e m e n t a l i m p r o v e m e n t s f r o m t h e v e n d o r as t h e y a r e made* O c c a s i o n a l l y , s u c h i m p r o v e m e n t s i n s o f t w a r e make s i g n i f i c a n t i mprovements i n t o t a l s y s t e m p e r f o r m a n c e , b u t t h e c o s t would be c o n t i n u e d W e s t e r n p r e s e n c e * . The c o n t i n u e d p r e s e n c e o f W e s t e r n e r s on t h e S o v i e t d a t a p r o c e s s i n g s c e n e would be a n o t h e r ' c h a n n e l ' c o n n e c t i n g t h e s o c i e t i e s ; i t would c o n t r i b u t e t o a c l i m a t e o f i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . 61 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION S o f t w a r e d e v e l o p m e n t i s e x p e n s i v e . . I f t h e S o v i e t s c h o o s e t o d e v e l o p t h e i r own, t h e a m b i t i o u s p r o j e c t s which t h e y e n v i s i o n a r e a l m o s t c e r t a i n t o o v e r t a x t h e a v a i l a b l e s u p p l y o f t e c h n i c a l l a b o r e r s , and w i l l c r e a t e a l a r g e demand f o r l a b o r which w i l l have t o come f r o m a l r e a d y p r e s s e d s e c t o r s o f t h e economy* T h i s c o u l d be d i s a s t r o u s f o r t h e S o v i e t economy g i v e n t h e i m p e n d i n g s h o r t a g e o f new w o r k e r s e n t e r i n g t h e w o r k f o r c e . I m p o r t e d s o f t w a r e c a n have b o t h r e s o u r c e f r e e i n g and c a p a b i l i t y e n h a n c i n g b e n e f i t s f o r S o v i e t s o c i e t y . The c o s t w i l l i n c l u d e a t minimum a c o n c e p t u a l ( o r R & D ) dependence on f o r e i g n s o u r c e s o f e x p e r t i s e , and t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f o p e n i n g up t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t o a d d i t i o n a l c o n t a c t w i t h f o r e i g n i n f l u e n c e s . Computer hardware . i m p o r t e d w i t h o u t s o f t w a r e q u i t e l i k e l y w i l l h ave a ' r e s o u r c e - d e m a n d i n g ' ( o r c a p a b i l i t y - d e g r a d i n g ) i n f l u e n c e b e c a u s e i t w i l l draw s c a r c e t e c h n i c a l r e s o u r c e s away from o t h e r s e c t o r s o f t h e economy.. I f t h e s e i m p o r t e d m a c h i n e s a r e r e s t r i c t e d t o n o n - m i l i t a r y u s e s * t h e n e t r e s u l t c o u l d be t o r a i s e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s o f c o m p u t e r i z i n g S o v i e t m i l i t a r y s y s t e m s ; 1 0 9 A p p l i c a t i o n s programs i m p o r t e d from th e U.S would c a r r y t h e p o t e n t i a l o f c h a n g i n g a s p e c t s of S o v i e t s o c i e t y . A p p l i c a t i o n programs a r e d e s i g n e d t o f a c i l i t a t e e x i s t i n g management s t r u c t u r e s ; . I f MIS p rograms a r e t o be i m p o r t e d , *<>9 K l i t g a a r d , p. 49> r e s u l t s f r o m t h e n o t i o n t h e i d e a i s 'what must one The c o n c e p t ' o p p o r t u n i t y o f s c a r c i t y o f r e s o u r c e s ; f o r e g o i f one c h o o s e s t o c o s t ' b a s i c a l l y , do x'„ 62 t h e y would a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y r e q u i r e t h e end u s e r t o m o d i f y h i s p r o c e d u r e s t o o b t a i n t h e maximum b e n e f i t f r o m t h e s o f t w a r e package,. I m p o r t i n q a p p l i c a t i o n s p r o q r a m s c o u l d have a p r o f o u n d e f f e c t on t h e S o v i e t s o c i e t y . I t would seem most l i k e l y t h a t t h e S o v i e t s would be more i n t e r e s t e d i n o p e r a t i n g s y s t e m s and u t i l i t i e s s u c h as d a t a b a s e management programs. These i programs c o u l d be employed w i t h l e s s s t r u c t u r a l change t o t h e S o v i e t e n t e r p r i s e which r e c e i v e s them* . The S o v i e t s have c h o s e n a p o l i c y o f c o p y i n g IBM c o m p u t e r s . T h i s means t h a t t h e y have b u i l t e x p e n s i v e f a c t o r i e s , and, most i m p o r t a n t l y , t h a t t h e y have t r a i n e d t h o u s a n d s o f t e c h n i c i a n s i n t h e IBM model; t h e r e f o r e i t would be v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o change t o a new d e s i g n c o n c e p t i n t h e s h o r t t e rm. Thus, t h e S o v i e t s a r e c o m m i t t e d t o a s p e c i f i c p o l i c y , and p u r c h a s e s o f f o r e i g n s y s t e m s t o f i l l e x c e p t i o n a l n e e d s (s u c h as t h e U n i v a c d e a l ) means t h a t t h e y e x p e r i e n c e s e n s i t i v i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e . T h i s f a c t m i g h t a l l o w t h e U.S. t o use c o m p u t e r hardware t r a d e as a b a r g a i n i n g c h i p , t h e r e b y i m p o s i n g c o n s t r a i n t s on S o v i e t f o r e i g n p o l i c y . I n t h e l o n g r u n , t h e S o v i e t h ardware s t a t e g y c o u l d r e s u l t i n h a r d w a r e i n d e p e n d e n c e , b u t i r o n i c a l l y f o r c e them i n t o s o f t w a r e dependence i f t h e i r s o f t w a r e t e c h n i c i a n s a r e u n a b l e t o f i l l t h e demand f o r p r o g r a m s . S i n c e S o v i e t h a r d w a r e i n d e p e n d e n c e i s s t i l l some t i m e i n t h e f u t u r e , t h e i m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t t h e S o v i e t s w i l l e x p e r i e n c e v u l n e r a b i l i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e i n c o m p u t e r s o f t w a r e . The v u l n e r a b i l i t y w i l l be f u r t h e r u n d e r s c o r e d i f i m p o r t e d s o f t w a r e p a c k a g e s f o r c e r e s t r u c t i n g o f S o v i e t b u s i n e s s o r s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s . T h i s 63 p o s s i b i l i t y i s s t r o n g , as management s o f t w a r e p a c k a g e s p r e s u p p o s e t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a d i f f e r e n t t y p e o f b u s i n e s s o r g a n i z a t i o n t h a n c u r r e n t l y e x i s t s i n t h e S o v i e t O n i o n . Computer s o f t w a r e r e p r e s e n t s an i s s u e a r e a w h e r e i n t h e S o v i e t O n i o n e x p e r i e n c e s v u l n e r a b i l i t y i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e ; . The c o s t of r e l i a n c e on e x t e r n a l s o u r c e s may be p o l i t i c a l l y o r i d e o l o g i c a l l y g r e a t e r t h a n t h e S o v i e t l e a d e r s h i p w i s h e s t o pay; on t h e o t h e r hand t h e e c o n o m i c c o s t o f a u t a r k y i n c o m p u t e r s o f t w a r e may be more t h a n t h e economy c a n b e a r g i v e n i t s poor f a c t o r p r o d u c t i v i t y and i t s c o m i n g c r i s i s w i t h r e s p e c t t o d e c l i n i n g g r o w t h r a t e s f r o m t o d i m i n i s h e d q u a n t i t a t i v e s o u r c e s o f g r o w t h . a n a l y s i s o f c o m p u t e r t r a d e between t h e O n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e S o v i e t O n i o n i s n o t f a c i l i t a t e d by t h e s t a t e - c e n t r i c model o f w o r l d p o l i t i c s . Computer t r a d e i s a t r a n s n a t i o n a l phenomenon. O.S. i a u l t i n a t i n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s d e a l d i r e c t l y w i t h a g e n c i e s o f t h e S o v i e t government, c o n s u l t i n g t h e O n i t e d S t a t e s g o v e r n m e n t a f t e r an agreement has been r e a c h e d w i t h t h e S o v i e t customer,* The O.S. f i r m s t h e n e f f e c t i v e l y l o b b y t h e a m e r i c a h government i n b e h a l f o f t h e S o v i e t O n i o n . , Governments ( p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e O.S. government) e x p e r i e n c e i n t e r n a l c o n f l i c t between v a r i o u s b u r e a u s o v e r p o l i c y c o n c e r n i n g c o mputer t r a d e ; d e c i s i o n s o f t e n c o n t r a d i c t p r e c e d e n t s r e c e n t l y s e t ; m i l i t a r y f o r c e i s n o t a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e r e s o l u t i o n o f t h e i s s u e ; and t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e i s s u e a r e a f l u c t u a t e s d e p e n d i n g on s e e m i n g l y e x t r a n e o u s e v e n t s (such as t h e t r e a t m e n t o f S o v i e t d i s s i d e n t s ) . a l s o , c o m p u t e r t r a d e e n c o u r a g e s m u l t i p l e c h a n n e l s between 64 s o c i e t i e s at formal and i n f o r m a l l e v e l s , M i l i t a r y s e c u r i t y i s a parameter of the i s s u e , but i t i s not the s o l e c o n s i d e r a t i o n , nor, can m i l i t a r y f o r c e be e f f e c t i v e l y a p p l i e d t o the i s s u e * The f a c t t h a t n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y i s a parameter does not negate the t r a n s n a t i o n a l q u a l i t y of the i s s u e . 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O i l p r o d u c t i o n a 1973 IBM 370/155 1 I n t o u r i s t r e s e r v a t i o n sys;. a 1972 I C L 1906A 2 I n s t i t u t e f o r H i g h a E n e r g y P h y s i c s Siemans 4004/150L , 1 . Siemans 4004/45 1 1972 CDC 6200 1 Dubna N u c l e a r E e s e a r c h a I n s t i t u t e IBM 360/65 3 a i r t r a f f i c c o n t r o l t r i p l e x s y s t e m 1972 IBM 360/40 1 r a d i o & t v f a c t o r y a 1972 IBM 360/50 1 S o v i e t M i n i s t r y of a C h e m i s t r y 1970 I C L 4/70 2 S t a t e P l a n n i n g agency a 1969 ICL 4/50 4 M i n i s t r y o f the Merchant a M a r i n e -1969 IC L 1900 5 a 1968 I C L 1905 1 a 1967 E n g l i s h E l e c t r i c 1 a (ECA S p e c t r a 70) 1964 G E - E l l i o t 503 5 Moscow Acdemy o f a -65 S c i e n c e s 1964 GE-H/B 400 1 a 1959 G E - E l l i o t 8022 Key: a - s y s t e m d e l i v e r e d -b - l i c e n s e d e n i e d n - n e g o t i a t i o n s p e n d i n g S o u r c e s : A. C. S u t t o n , C h r i s t o p h e r S t o w e l l , BAND E e p o r t E-1642, 0.S» C o n g r e s s ' * T h i s d e a l a l s o i n c l u d e s n e a r l y a d o z e n m i n i c o m p u t e r s y s t e m s from t h e IBM System 3 and IBM System 7 p r o d u c t l i n e s * 2 T h i s i s t h e f i r s t t r a c e a b l e s a l e t o the S o v i e t s . 

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