UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

The case for experimental evolution in development planning Mack, Bruce Howard 1976

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THE CASE FOR EXPERIMENTAL EVOLUTION IN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING  by Bruce Howard Mack B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, 1969 B . S c , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, 1974  THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE 1  n  THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING  We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o t h e requi red s t a n d a r d  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h September,  (c)  Columbia  1976  Bruce Howard Mack, 1976  In  presenting  this  thesis  an a d v a n c e d  degree at  the L i b r a r y  shall  I  f u r t h e r agree  for  scholarly  by h i s of  the U n i v e r s i t y  make  written  thesis  of  that permission  -It  for  for extensive  p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d  for  British  of  is understood  f i n a n c i a l gain shall  CoI^I^LCCA.//v  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h  /ta^'ST^/'  Columbia  2075 W e s b r o o k P l a c e V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1WS  J^s>X  1/  t ?7<*  the  requirements  Columbia,  I agree  r e f e r e n c e and copying of  this  that copying  not  or  that  thesis or  publication  be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my  rf*  for  study.  by t h e Head o f my D e p a r t m e n t  permission.  Department  Date  fulfilment of  it freely available  representatives.  this  in partial  THE CASE FOR EXPERIMENTAL EVOLUTION IN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING THESIS ABSTRACT  This thesis  r e v e a l s some major weaknesses  in development  based p r i m a r i l y on economic growth and suggests the development  strategies record  can o n l y be improved s i g n i f i c a n t l y by a d o p t i n g a p r o c e s s o f e x p e r i m e n t a l evolut ion. The obvious s t a r t i n g p o i n t i s d e f i n i n g and d e s c r i b i n g Development  development.  i s d e f i n e d as n e i t h e r more nor l e s s than the improvement o f  i n d i v i d u a l and s o c i a l w e l f a r e , and the f i r s t c h a p t e r draws on some o f the social  sciences'  l i t e r a t u r e i n an attempt t o d e s c r i b e i n d i v i d u a l and s o c i a l  development. W h i l e t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n i s f a r from d e f i n i t i v e , s e v e r a l t e n t a t i v e c o n c l u s i o n s may be drawn.  Individuals  have a wide v a r i e t y o f  needs, from the b a s i c p h y s i o l o g i c a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l needs f o r f u l f i l l m e n t .  t o those  higher  These needs a r e s a t i s f i e d in v a r y i n g degrees by  the s o c i a l system (or the s o c i a l d e l i v e r y s y s t e m s ) .  There i s no e v i d e n c e  t h a t one type o f s o c i a l system performs b e t t e r over a l l than any o t h e r . The components o f the s o c i a l system, the subsystems as y e t p o o r l y understood) r u p t i o n o f one subsystem  have a complex  (and  interdependence and i n t e r a c t i o n , such t h a t d i s i s l i k e l y t o produce ( l a r g e l y  r a m i f i c a t i o n s throughout the r e s t o f the s o c i a l system.  unforeseen) Beyond the few  b a s i c p h y s i o l o g i c a l needs, economic a c t i v i t y s a t i s f i e s few o f the needs and many economic a c t i v i t i e s i n h i b i t o r even p r e c l u d e many needs' faction. social  satis-  And f i n a l l y , any i n t e r v e n t i o n which s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i s r u p t s  system i s  the  l i k e l y to be c o u n t e r - p r o d u c t i v e , as the reduced s y s t e m i c  performance g e n e r a l l y negates  the b e n e f i t s d e r i v e d from the i n t e r v e n t i o n .  i i For these reasons i t i s suggested t h e r e i s l i t t l e j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r s o c i a l e v a n g e l i s m o r mimicry and t h a t d i s r u p t i v e s t r a t e g i e s have a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t a l consequences.  necessarily  Economic growth i s n e i t h e r  costless  nor p r i c e l e s s . The economic e v a l u a t i o n s o f the l a s t two decades o f  'development'  e f f o r t s bear out t h i s c o n c l u s i o n , t h a t the development r e c o r d f o r the T h i r d World has been d i s a p p o i n t i n g and l e s s  than adequate, and t h a t the major  cause was u n a n t i c i p a t e d s o c i e t a l r e p e r c u s s i o n s .  T h i s appears t o have  been the case whether the s t r a t e g i e s were e x p l i c i t l y d i s r u p t i v e o r was more g e n e r a l l y the case)  i n a d v e r t e n t l y so.  reasons f o r the poor r e c o r d as w e l l .  (as  There a r e , however, o t h e r  The t r a d i t i o n a l ' b a r r i e r s to d e v e l o p -  m e n t , and numerous e x t e r n a l o r u n a l t e r a b l e f a c t o r s 1  e s t a b l i s h e d m a r k e t s , demand and s u p p l y  (comparative  advantages,  l i m i t s , the 'development o f  under-  d e v e l o p m e n t ' ) each c o n t r i b u t e i n v a r y i n g degrees t o c i r c u m s c r i b e the economic growth p o t e n t i a l o f each c o u n t r y .  These c o n s t r a i n t s  further  weaken the case f o r economic growth s t r a t e g i e s t h a t r e q u i r e easy access to open markets and t o l i m i t e d It  resources.  i s recognized that a concerted e f f o r t is necessary  t o reduce  these e x t e r n a l b a r r i e r s to economic g r o w t h , to more e q u i t a b l y d i s t r i b u t e the world's  r e s o u r c e s and income.  t i m e , a developmental process  It  is a l s o n e c e s s a r y  to develop, at  this  t h a t may be a p p l i e d i n any c o u n t r y , w i t h i n  these c o n s t r a i n t s . The process must seek t o determine the l e v e l o f s o c i a l  performance  w i t h i n the s o c i e t y , because e v e r y s o c i e t y has both s t r e n g t h s and weakn e s s e s — a n d most have more s t r e n g t h s  than weaknesses.  It must  involve  the p e o p l e in d e t e r m i n i n g the l e v e l o f performance and in d e f i n i n g t h e i r own s o c i a l g o a l s , because o n l y they can l e g i t i m a t e l y do i t and because the involvement  is  in i t s e l f d e v e l o p m e n t a l .  The i n t e r v e n t i o n must be designed  i ii t o m a i n t a i n the l e v e l o f performance in n o n - t a r g e t subsystems disruption)  (minimize  and i t must be f l e x i b l e , s u i t a b l e f o r m o d i f i c a t i o n as  problems  arise.  These o b j e c t i v e s are f a c i l i t a t e d by experiments s m a l l  scope.  F i n a l l y the process must i n c l u d e m o n i t o r i n g and e v a l u a t i o n , not  o n l y o f the t a r g e t subsystem, is necessary no n e g a t i v e  in s c a l e and  but o f the whole s o c i a l performance.  t o p e r m i t adjustments t o the s t r a t e g y , t o ensure t h e r e are impacts in o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n s , and to improve our  understand-  ing o f s o c i a l system b e h a v i o r , a p r e r e g u i s i t e f o r more e f f i c i e n t strategies.  This  development  TABLE OF CONTENTS  Page INTRODUCTION  1  CHAPTER 1 1.0  D e f i n i n g the Development O b j e c t i v e s  6  CHAPTER 2 2.0  The Record  20  2.1  The Economic Growth Record  20  2.2  The Development Record  26  3.0  The Reasons f o r the Poor Record  34  3.1  Causes o f the Poor Growth Record  34  3.2  Causes o f the Poor Development Record  44  4.0  D e f i n i n g the Problem o f P l a n n i n g f o r Development  53  4.1  I d e n t i f y i n g Performance D e f i c i e n c i e s  53  4.2  The Problem o f Change  54  4.3  I d e n t i f y i n g the Causes o f D e f i c i e n c i e s  56  4.4  Designing Appropriate S t r a t e g i e s  57  5-0  Toward a S t r a t e g y f o r Development  59  5.1  The Role o f the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Community  59  5.2  The Role o f the Development P l a n n e r  62  CHAPTER 3  CHAPTER 4  CHAPTER 5  BIBLIOGRAPHY  V  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  S e v e r a l people gave g e n e r o u s l y o f t h e i r time and i d e a s . l i k e to acknowledge i n p a r t i c u l a r the a s s i s t a n c e and a d v i c e o f C.S.  Belshaw, S.D.  professors  B u t t - F i n n , H. Hightower and D. Webster.  Two i n d i v i d u a l s deserve s p e c i a l mention. Professor  I would  I r v i n g K. Fox and my w i f e , L i l l i a n ,  I would l i k e t o thank  f o r t h e i r encouragement  and support t h a t went f a r beyond the scope o f t h i s paper. The d e f i c i e n c i e s t h a t remain in t h i s work are e n t i r e l y my own respons i b i 1 i t y .  1 INTRODUCTION P l a n n e r s have been concerned w i t h c o n d i t i o n s in the T h i r d World f o r some t i m e , and c o n s i d e r a b l e e f f o r t has been expended to improve what have g e n e r a l l y been viewed as u n s a t i s f a c t o r y l e v e l s o f l i v i n g t h e r e .  Despite  the e f f o r t , however, and some change, t h e r e has not been comparable improvement.  Development p l a n n i n g i s now at a c r i t i c a l  stage.  There i s s u f f i c i e n t  i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e to e v a l u a t e , i f o n l y g r o s s l y , the r e c o r d o v e r the l a s t two decades.  The r e c o r d has not been good.  There are now, in a d d i t i o n  to most o f the problems t h a t e x i s t e d p r i o r t o the c o n c e r t e d p l a n n i n g i n t e r v e n t i o n s , e x a c e r b a t e d problems of i n c r e a s e d i n e g u i t i e s , o f a l i e n a t i o n and unemployment, o f  1  homelessness .  to the p r e s e n t problems.  And growing p o p u l a t i o n s add p r e s s u r e  1  So p l a n n e r s must look c r i t i c a l l y a t past  s t r a t e g i e s , must f i n d t h e i r weaknesses, which o f f e r more promise o f s u c c e s s . that  and must develop new s t r a t e g i e s  This thesis  is a contribution to  task. I brought  t o t h i s study s e v e r a l p e r c e p t i o n s , w h i c h , given the s t a t e  o f my knowledge (and even the s t a t e o f knowledge i n these f i e l d s ) may be l i t t l e more than b i a s e s .  F i r s t , i s the d i s c r e p a n c y I p e r c e i v e d between  the r e a l w o r l d and our d e s c r i p t i o n s o f i t .  The d e s c r i p t i o n s (by no means  the o n l y ones, but the ones upon which p o l i c i e s a r e genera 11y based) d e s c r i b e the death and d i s e a s e and w r e t c h e d p o v e r t y o f these a r e a s . S o c i a l , demographic and economic i n d i c a t o r s i n c l u d e f i g u r e s on death r a t e s , b i r t h r a t e s , health f a c i l i t i e s , education, n u t r i t i o n , housing, t a t i o n and communication s e r v i c e s , and o u t p u t .  i n v e s t m e n t , consumption  H a r d l y s u r p r i s i n g l y , the d e s c r i p t i o n o f the T h i r d World  s o c i e t i e s based on these types o f w i t h the more a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s . by v a r i o u s  income, s a v i n g s ,  transpor-  communicable d i s e a s e s  i n f o r m a t i o n i s dismal indeed in comparison ( i n t e r e s t i n g l y , the U.N. r e c o r d s deaths p r e v a l e n t in the t r o p i c s , but not by h e a r t  2 disease,  lung c a n c e r , o r c a r a c c i d e n t s ) .  that i f s o c i a l  It  i s not d i f f i c u l t  to speculate  i n d i c a t o r s c o u l d i n c l u d e happiness o r s e c u r i t y o r mental  hea1th--perhaps  the most important c r i t e r i a o f a l l - - t h e r a n k i n g o f  s o c i e t i e s might be very d i f f e r e n t .  A l l t h i s t h e s i s manages to do is  to  show t h i s p e r c e p t i o n , t h a t t h e r e i s much o f v a l u e i n most s o c i e t i e s , t h a t no one s o c i e t y has demonstrated  i t s s u p e r i o r i t y , and t h a t  t h a t much o f v a l u e in o t h e r s o c i e t i e s w i l l  apprehensions  be l o s t u n l e s s new s t r a t e g i e s  are f o u n d , i s shared by o t h e r s . My second b i a s generalizations.  i s a s t r o n g , a p r i o r i s u s p i c i o n of models and  The T h i r d World i s not an e n t i t y .  c o u n t r i e s o t h e r than the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d West o r E a s t ,  Beyond b e i n g the i t defies description.  Even per c a p i t a incomes are not u n i v e r s a l l y low, p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e O.P.E.C. has shown i t s s t r e n g t h . pressures  vary.  Resources  vary, c a p i t a l v a r i e s ,  Most i m p o r t a n t l y , s o c i a l systems  are h a r d l y i n the same c l a s s as Chad; India  vary.  population M a l a s i a and B r a z i l  i s unique a g a i n .  How can a  s t r a t e g y t h a t i n v o l v e s u r b a n i z a t i o n a p p l y e q u a l l y among the Yoruba  in  N i g e r i a , w i t h t h e i r urban t r a d i t i o n s and in p a r t s o f East A f r i c a , where even v i l l a g e s were s c a r c e ?  My i n i t i a l  i n t e n t t o examine the a p p l i c a b i l i t y  o f v a r i o u s m o d e l s - - t h e Japanese, the B r a z i l i a n , the A s i a n c i t y - s t a t e s , the Chinese, the Russian and the Western was s h o r t - l i v e d .  Dore,  (1971)  s u c c i n c t l y o u t l i n e s the l i m i t a t i o n s o f the Japanese e x p e r i e n c e as a model for other countries.  The same would have t o be done f o r each o f the o t h e r  models, each r e q u i r i n g a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f the s o c i a l system and the w o r l d s i t u a t i o n as i t changed in response pressures.  But t h a t i s o n l y the b e g i n n i n g .  such model a p p l y o r be i n a p p r o p r i a t e ? viewed as worthy o f Chile?  to i d e n t i f i a b l e development For what c o u n t r i e s would any  I f t h e B r a z i l i a n model  (were i t  i m i t a t i o n ) were a p p l i c a b l e to A r g e n t i n a , would i t be to  Models are not  i n h e r e n t l y dangerous,  but they must be based on  3 adequate e m p i r i c a l knowledge.  The s i m p l e f a c t i s our knowledge o f s o c i a l  system b e h a v i o r and performance i s Finally,  inadequate t o j u s t i f y t h e i r use.  I harbour the s u s p i c i o n  behind development e f f o r t s are f a l s e .  t h a t many o f the b a s i c It  i s o f t e n assumed we know the  course o f s o c i a l e v o l u t i o n - - w e used t o t a l k o f s o c i e t i e s where we now use or  'modern'.  assumptions  ' p r i m i t i v e ' and  'underdeveloped' or 'developing'  'civilized'  and ' d e v e l o p e d '  I f development i s d e f i n e d , as i t must be, as the  improvement  o f i n d i v i d u a l and s o c i a l w e l f a r e , I s t r o n g l y s u s p e c t many o t h e r s o c i a l systems are more developed than are those o f the Western, i n d u s t r i a l i z e d countries.  Al1 we can say about s o c i a l e v o l u t i o n at t h i s p o i n t i s t h a t  has been d i v e r g e n t e v o l u t i o n .  it  Development p l a n n e r s ought to seek what  each s o c i e t y can l e a r n from o t h e r s ,  in terms o f i t s o b j e c t i v e s .  We cannot assume economic growth i s c o s t l e s s .  The changes i t  causes, sometimes n e c e s s a r i l y , have c o s t s and they may be h i g h . we assume economic growth i s p r i c e l e s s , t h a t no c o s t o f s o c i a l  Nor can disruption  o r i n d i v i d u a l a n x i e t y is too g r e a t t o c o u n t e r the b e n e f i t s to be d e r i v e d from economic growth.  I n d i c a t i o n s of s o c i a l m a l a i s e in the a f f l u e n t  c o u n t r i e s may i n d i c a t e the c o s t s are p r o h i b i t i v e .  Indications  o f the high  c o s t s and g e n e r a l l y s m a l l and o f t e n n e g l i g i b l e b e n e f i t s in the T h i r d World may i n d i c a t e some resources ought t o be r e - a l l o c a t e d t o more i m p o r t a n t development e f f o r t s w i t h b e t t e r c o s t - b e n e f i t r a t i o s  in s o c i a l  terms.  These views may be l i t t l e more than b i a s e s , but t h i s paper does show t h a t much o f the b a s i s f o r economic growth o r development s t r a t e g i e s on no more s o l i d  ground.  What, t h e n , does t h i s paper hope t o a c c o m p l i s h ? social  sciences  is  Drawing on the  l i t e r a t u r e , I t r y to get an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of what  i n v o l v e d in i n d i v i d u a l and s o c i e t a l development.  Knowledge  is  in t h i s a r e a  i s f a r from c o m p l e t e , but i t i s p o s s i b l e to gain some i n s i g h t s  i n t o human  needs and the ways in which s o c i e t i e s accommodate, s a t i s f y , o r f r u s t r a t e these needs.  Development s t r a t e g i e s must be based on t h i s  and the process must p r o v i d e f o r the improvement o f t h a t  understanding,  understanding.  In l o o k i n g a t the weaknesses o f p r e s e n t s t r a t e g i e s s e v e r a l were open.  A case study c o u l d have been examined, b u t , even w i t h the  c o s t s o f doing the a n a l y s i s  (and a complete one would be i m p o s s i b l e ) ,  c o u l d but show in t h i s case the s t r a t e g y f a i l e d o r was hundreds  options  inappropriate.  and perhaps thousands of such s t u d i e s have been done.  or l i m i t a t i o n s .  been i m p o s s i b l e - - t h e l i t e r a t u r e exist,  And  Alternative  I c o u l d have d i s c u s s e d each type o f s t r a t e g y , a t t e m p t i n g t o expose u n d e r l y i n g assumptions  it  its  But an e x h a u s t i v e study would have  i s s i m p l y too v a s t .  A l s o , there already  in s e v e r a l b a s i c books on ' d e v e l o p m e n t ' o r economic g r o w t h , adeguate  d e s c r i p t i o n s o f enough s t r a t e g i e s t o g i v e anyone i n t e r e s t e d i n the f i e l d a f a i r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the n a t u r e , i f not the a c t u a l s u b s t a n c e , o f most sets of  strategies. I felt  i t was j u s t i f i a b l e , t h e r e f o r e , t o d i s c u s s types o f  r a t h e r than s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t s .  strategies  It was a l s o e x p e d i e n t t o draw on aggregates  o f e x p e r i e n c e more than s p e c i f i c p r o j e c t e v a l u a t i o n s and t h i s may be j u s t i f i e d by the remarkable consensus t h a t emerged.  Observations  and  e v a l u a t i o n s o f the development e x p e r i e n c e over the l a s t two decades, by authors  from the extreme r i g h t to f a r l e f t , a r e s u r p r i s i n g l y Based on these o b s e r v a t i o n s ,  development are n e c e s s a r y .  It w i l l  i t i s e v i d e n t new approaches be n e c e s s a r y  d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s and incomes.  to  to change the w o r l d  market and c r e d i t systems to a l l o w ( l e t a l o n e encourage)  however,  consistent.  the more e g u i t a b l e  Of prime concern in t h i s  i s t h e n e c e s s i t y t o adopt a developmental process  that  thesis, recognizes  the i n a d e g u a c i e s o f our u n d e r s t a n d i n g of s o c i a l performance and b e h a v i o r , o f i n d i v i d u a l needs and t h e i r s a t i s f a c t i o n ; t h a t can be a p p l i e d d e s p i t e  5 t h e s e i n a d e q u a c i e s and can improve our u n d e r s t a n d i n g ; and t h a t can be adopted to meet the changing  social conditions.  Such an approach, a t  this  time must be h i g h l y e x p e r i m e n t a l and must have r e s e a r c h as a major component.  It  i s a p r o c e s s , not a s p e c i f i c , a l t e r n a t i v e development  f o r any e x p l i c i t s t r a t e g y at t h i s time would be premature. Mishan,  To  strategy,  paraphrase  (1967), i f t h i s approach appears weak f o r l a c k o f q u a n t i f i a b l e  e v i d e n c e , t h e f a u l t l i e s more w i t h the s t a t e o f our knowledge than w i t h the argument.  The time has come t o c h a r t a new course  T h i s t h e s i s suggests the d i r e c t i o n ; the course w i l l  i n development p l a n n i n g . f o l l o w from t h a t .  6 CHAPTER 1  DEFINING THE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES  Development  i s the improvement o f i n d i v i d u a l and s o c i a l w e l f a r e o r  the improvement o f s o c i a l system performance.  It i s s u b j e c t i v e .  Objective,  q u a n t i f i a b l e parameters may be examined t o h e l p i n d i c a t e development ( o r , in s t a t i c terms, s o c i a l p e r f o r m a n c e ) .  The U.N. p r e s e n t l y records  t h r e e such i n d i c a t o r s - - i n c o m e s , n u t r i t i o n , h e a l t h ( a c t u a l l y  seventy-  diseases),  l i t e r a c y l e v e l s , e t c . — b u t t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s may not c o r r e l a t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h performance o r may even c o r r e l a t e n e g a t i v e l y .  Many components o f  w e l f a r e may be q u a n t i f i e d , but many more may n o t - - h a p p i n e s s ,  security,  s e l f - e s t e e m , s a t i s f a c t i o n - - a n d these unmeasurable components a r e perhaps more c r i t i c a l  t o w e l f a r e and hence t o any q u e s t i o n s o f development.  Development, as d e f i n e d by W e b s t e r ' s  and as g e n e r a l l y used, has a  connotation of 'betterment' o r 'improvement . 1  Development, t h e n ,  any value-dependent t e r m , i s i n t h e eyes o f the b e h o l d e r . o t h e r change, may o r may not be d e v e l o p m e n t a l . i t y may be o b j e c t i v e and v a l u e - f r e e (Be'lshaw, it  Growth, o r any  Increased systems complex1970, 1972), but i n s o f a r as  i s , i t cannot be used as a d e f i n i t i o n o f development w i t h o u t  begging  the q u e s t i o n o f whether i n c r e a s e d systems c o m p l e x i t y n e c e s s a r i l y an improvement  i n s o c i a l performance.  uncommon in the s o c i a l s c i e n c e s 1973)-  like  T h i s u n j u s t i f i e d assumption  l i t e r a t u r e ( s e e , f o r example,  indicates i s not  Chodak,  Whether the d e f i n i t i o n i s very p r e c i s e — a l e v e l o f development i s  e q u i v a l e n t t o a c e r t a i n per c a p i t a i n c o m e — o r s i m p l y  imposes a s e t o f  v a l u e s which may not be u n i v e r s a l l y a c c e p t a b l e — c o n d i t i o n s o f P a r e t o improvement o r P a r e t o o p t i m i z a t i o n — i t t r i e s t o d e f i n e f o r a n o t h e r what his  p e r c e p t i o n o f improvement i s o r ought t o be.  In some s o c i e t i e s , a  development o b j e c t i v e might c o n c e i v a b l y be a more e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of w e l f a r e .  The c o s t s o f t h i s t o some segments o f s o c i e t y may decrease  t h e i r w e l f a r e , but t h e r e may b e , n o n e t h e l e s s , marked s o c i e t a l development.  7 S o c i e t a l development i s , t h e n , a s u b j e c t i v e term, l i k e or betterment.  The o b j e c t i v i t y o f v a r i o u s components o f i t do not a l t e r  its basic s u b j e c t i v i t y . Or h i g h e r  improvement  Do more c a r s and f r i d g e s mean more development?  incomes but fewer happy m a r r i a g e s ?  not attempt t o , answer t h a t g u e s t i o n .  T h i s paper c a n n o t , and w i l l  In f a c t , i t w i l l  argue t h a t o n l y  the members o f the s o c i e t y may l e g i t i m a t e l y e v a l u a t e t h e i r l e v e l o f s o c i a l system performance and the degree t o which changes in i t are d e v e l o p m e n t a l . It may be p o s s i b l e , however, t o i d e n t i f y some o f the u n d e r l y i n g  individual  needs f o r s e l f - f u l f i l l m e n t . Individual  development, s e l f - f u l f i l l m e n t o r s e l f a c t u a l i z a t i o n i s  the process o f s a t i s f y i n g o n e ' s p h y s i o l o g i c a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l Social to  development  i s the process o f c r e a t i n g an environment  needs.  conducive  i n d i v i d u a l development. Maslow (1968, 1971, and G o b l e , 1970)  "deficiency") needs--physiological  identifies basic  (or  needs f o r a i r , w a t e r , f o o d , s h e l t e r ,  s l e e p , and sex, and p s y c h o l o g i c a l needs f o r s a f e t y and s e c u r i t y , love and "belongingness"  and s e l f - e s t e e m and esteem by o t h e r s .  Maslow argues t h a t  these needs a r e h i e r a r c h i c a 1 - - t h a t the p h y s i o l o g i c a l needs must be met b e f o r e the i n d i v i d u a l  i s a b l e t o attempt to s a t i s f y needs f o r s a f e t y and  s e c u r i t y , which must i n t u r n be s a t i s f i e d b e f o r e ( o r a r e more b a s i c the need f o r love and b e l o n g i n g n e s s ,  than)  which must precede esteem g r a t i f i c a t i o n .  F a i l u r e t o s a t i s f y these needs, he c l a i m s , causes p h y s i c a l o r  psychological  i l l n e s s ; s a t i s f a c t i o n o f them prevents o r cures the i l l n e s s , and a h e a l t h y p e r s o n , by d e f i n i t i o n , has s a t i s f i e d h i s b a s i c needs. b a s i c needs, the i n d i v i d u a l needs.  Having s a t i s f i e d h i s  i s prepared t o grow, to s a t i s f y h i s  These needs, f o r t r u t h , goodness, beauty, a l i v e n e s s ,  growth  individuality,  perfection, necessity, completion, j u s t i c e , order, s i m p l i c i t y ,  richness,  p l a y f u l n e s s , e f f o r t l e s s n e s s , s e l f s u f f i c i e n c y , and meaningfulness  are  8 n o n - h i e r a r c h i c a l and, in many c a s e s ,  interrelated.  F i n a l l y , need s a t i s -  f a c t i o n depends on the e x t e r n a l e n v i r o n m e n t , the p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r  satis-  f a c t i o n being freedom, j u s t i c e , o r d e r l i n e s s and c h a l l e n g e o r s t i m u l a t i o n . Maslow's h i e r a r c h y o f needs s h o u l d not be c o n s i d e r e d an e x h a u s t i v e l i s t i n g , nor is t h e r e n e c e s s a r i l y any g r e a t m e r i t i n h i s  terminology.  For example, c u r i o s i t y and c r e a t i v i t y (on which Maslow and o t h e r s c o n s i d e r a b l e emphasis) expressions  c o u l d be viewed as s e p a r a t e needs  o f t h e needs f o r t r u t h , b e a u t y ,  p e r f e c t i o n s , c o m p l e t i o n , and p l a y f u l n e s s . questioned.  There are p r o b a b l y  r a t h e r than as  individuality,  meaningfulness,  The h i e r a r c h y i t s e l f c o u l d be  innumerable examples of i n d i v i d u a l s p l a c i n g  h i g h e r v a l u e on l e s s b a s i c n e e d s — e v e n  t o the p o i n t o f f o r f e i t i n g  i t s e l f for higher values—and of i n d i v i d u a l s a h i e r a r c h y o f the ( n o n - h i e r a r c h i c a l ) How u n i v e r s a l  (and s o c i e t i e s )  life  establishing  growth-needs.  i s the h i e r a r c h y p r e s e n t e d by Maslow?  are these needs themselves?  put  How u n i v e r s a l  How c o m p a t i b l e o r complementary are the needs?  The i m p l i c a t i o n t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s s u f f e r i n g from m a l n u t r i t i o n or d i s e a s e l a c k o f s a f e t y a r e unable t o (or u n w i l l i n g to) s a t i s f y o t h e r  or  "higher"  needs, l i k e l o v e , s e l f - e s t e e m o r t r u t h i s a t b e s t q u e s t i o n a b l e .  Also,  i n d i v i d u a l s o r c u l t u r e s may p l a c e g r e a t e r emphasis o n , f o r example, c o m p l e t i o n than o n , s a y , p l a y f u l n e s s - t h e P r o t e s t a n t e t h i c o f l i v i n g t o work and the e q u a l l y widespread e t h i c o f working to l i v e . t h a t these needs, all  " g o o d " needs.  It can be seen  r e f l e c t i n g M a s l o w ' s view o f man and h i s methodology  are  What of the need to dominate, to a c q u i r e and p o s s e s s ,  t o win? It may be p o s s i b l e t o draw a d i s t i n c t i o n between human needs goals.  and  Goals may be d e f i n e d as the m a n i f e s t a t i o n of the need, the  o b j e c t i v e by which the i n d i v i d u a l attempts to s a t i s f y h i s u n d e r l y i n g need. Goals are very l a r g e l y c u l t u r a l l y d e t e r m i n e d , w h i l e needs may or may not  9 be.  For example, the ' n e e d s '  t o dominate, t o a c q u i r e , o r t o w i n may be  goals f o s t e r e d by a c u l t u r e to s a t i s f y t h e needs Theologians  and p h i l o s o p h e r s  f o r status or s e l f - e s t e e m .  have debated i n c o n c l u s i v e l y f o r m i l l e n i a  whether man i s b a s i c a l l y good o r e v i l .  Psychologists  and o t h e r s o c i a l  s c i e n t i s t s have to some e x t e n t undermined t h i s argument by s u g g e s t i n g he has the c a p a c i t y f o r b o t h , s u b j e c t to the s o c i a l environment,  but  social  'utopian'  development e f f o r t s are s t i l l  or ' n a i v e '  i f they f a i l  s u b j e c t t o such e p i t h e t s as  to c o n t a i n man's ' n a t u r a l ' t e n d e n c i e s  c o m p e t i t i o n , dominance, power and s e l f - i n t e r e s t . for  self-fulfillment  A l l individuals  strive  in a s o c i a l c o n t e x t - - i t i s the s o c i a l c o n t e x t t h a t  determines the c r i t e r i a f o r esteem and s t a t u s .  So, where i n d i v i d u a l s  rewarded f o r a c h i e v i n g s u c c e s s i n c o m p e t i t i v e s i t u a t i o n s , and e x e r c i s i n g power, and where s a n c t i o n s social  toward  are weak a g a i n s t  are  for attaining neglect  of  r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , b e h a v i o r d i r e c t e d toward a c h i e v i n g acceptance and  status w i l l  be markedly d i f f e r e n t (though n e i t h e r more nor l e s s  'natural')  than b e h a v i o r d i r e c t e d toward the same needs s a t i s f a c t i o n in a s o c i e t y w i t h more s o c i a 1 1 y ^ o r i e n t e d , c o - o p e r a t i v e  norms.  Before e x p l o r i n g these s o c i e t a l d i f f e r e n c e s , t h e r e i s another o f the s e t o f i n d i v i d u a l needs  t h a t has  Man appears  to have c o n f l i c t i n g needs.  orderliness  from h i s  society.  Much o f the ' d e v e l o p m e n t '  implications for social  feature  organization.  He a p p a r e n t l y needs s e c u r i t y  and  He a l s o needs c h a l l e n g e o r s t i m u l a t i o n .  (economic growth)  e f f o r t discussed  i n Chapter 2  was d i r e c t e d toward i n c r e a s i n g the l e v e l of c h a l l e n g e and s t i m u l a t i o n , ostensibly  t o i n c r e a s e i n n o v a t i o n and change.  Kenneth Arrow  (1963) got  the Nobel P r i z e f o r showing, m a t h e m a t i c a l l y , you c a n ' t p l e a s e everyone a l l the t i m e .  S o c i a l systems,  however, need not be r e s t r i c t e d t o such s i m p l e  choi c e s . At what p o i n t does s e c u r i t y and o r d e r l i n e s s  render the c h a l l e n g e o r  stimulation ineffective? reaches u n h e a l t h y l e v e l s ? o p t i m a l i t y , or is  How much c h a l l e n g e may e x i s t b e f o r e  insecurity  Ought we be t h i n k i n g i n such g e n e r a l  terms o f  i t p o s s i b l e to provide diverse o p p o r t u n i t i e s ,  perhaps  o f f e r i n g c h a l l e n g e , the s t i m u l a t i o n f o r c r e a t i v i t y in one s e c t o r  (perhaps  the economic) w h i l e r e t a i n i n g a degree o f o r d e r l i n e s s , s t a b i l i t y and ity  in another s e c t o r ( f o r example, the f a m i l y o r community  Perhaps  secur-  structure)?  i t i s not so much o f a dilemma as i t f i r s t appears.  The i n d i v i d u a l  r e q u i r e s a degree o f s t a b i l i t y from which t o grow and to which t o r e t u r n other stresses  become too g r e a t , but he a l s o r e q u i r e s the o p p o r t u n i t y  if  to  expand, t o meet c h a l l e n g e s and develop h i s p o t e n t i a l . Nyerere  (1974) c a l l s f o r the n e c e s s a r y  change t o f r e e people from  poverty,  ignorance and d i s e a s e and from e x p l o i t a t i o n , o p p r e s s i o n  and s u b -  sistence  l i v i n g , yet he r e c o g n i z e s  necessary  to achieve that  t h a t a degree of s t a b i l i t y i s  change.  In a d d r e s s i n g  this  issue of s o c i e t i e s '  r o l e in i n d i v i d u a l  ment, B e n e d i c t developed t h e concept o f s o c i e t a l s y n e r g y .  fulfill-  Benedict  (1970)  argues t h e r e can be s e v e r a l " g r o u n d p l a n s " f o r s o c i e t i e s which can be s t a b l e and v i a b l e , i n c l u d i n g h i g h l y  i n e q u i t a b l e ones, so long as t h e r e  some r e c o g n i t i o n o f mutual b e n e f i t to members o f the s o c i e t y . p l a n s " appear t o be l e s s these broader s t r u c t u r e s . s o c i a l arrangements Synergistic  group by the same a c t i o n .  social  orders  The " g r o u n d within  Values and norms are a major component o f the  t h a t can, i n e f f e c t , make o r break a s o c i e t y .  arrangements  t h a t emerges  important than the s o c i a l arrangements  is  are those t h a t advantage  the i n d i v i d u a l and the  "From a l l c o m p a r a t i v e m a t e r i a l the  conclusion  i s that s o c i e t i e s where n o n a g g r e s s i o n i s conspicuous  have  in which the i n d i v i d u a l by the same a c t and at the same time  s e r v e s h i s own advantage and t h a t o f the g r o u p "  ( B e n e d i c t , 1970).  systems and arrangements where c o n f l i c t and a g g r e s s i o n are high  Social  generate  hostility,  resentment, and envy and high  produces w i n n e r s ,  i t a l s o produces  levels of i n s e c u r i t y ( i f c o n f l i c t  losers)  and hence f a i l u r e .  Insecurity  and f a i l u r e are h a r d l y conducive t o s e l f - e s t e e m and o t h e r needs f a c t i o n and i n d i v i d u a l  satis-  fulfillment.  The concept o f s o c i a l synergy and the a l t e r n a t i v e developmental mechanisms  o f c o - o p e r a t i o n and c o m p e t i t i o n are o b v i o u s l y  and are c e n t r a l , e i t h e r e x p l i c i t l y o r i m p l i c i t l y , oriented decisions.  closely  to many  related  development  It has been e v i d e n t f o r some time not o n l y  that  d i f f e r e n t s o c i e t i e s have d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f c o o p e r a t i o n and c o m p e t i t i o n but t h a t some s o c i e t i e s are b a s i c a l l y c o o p e r a t i v e and o t h e r s  basically  c o m p e t i t i v e , though none are l i k e l y t o be e x c l u s i v e l y one o r the o t h e r (Mead,  1937).  Enguiries  i n t o the r e l a t i v e advantages  c o m p e t i t i o n per se as b a s i c s o c i a l m o t i v a t i o n s  are,  o f c o o p e r a t i o n over as y e t ,  inconclusive,  though t h e r e are i n d i c a t i o n s " t h a t human p o t e n t i a l s are wasted due to the environmental  c u l t i v a t i o n o f c o m p e t i t i o n and a g g r e s s i o n as opposed  c o o p e r a t i o n and the s o c i a l s i d e o f man's n a t u r e . win f a i l  For those who do not  t o develop the degree o f i n f l u e n c e o r the f e e l i n g s of  necessary  t o make c o n t r i b u t i o n s  i n s o c i e t i e s where a g g r e s s i o n ,  ism and c o m p e t i t i o n are s a n c t i o n e d " ( B u t t - F i n n , 197*0. case,  i f aggression,  to  worthiness individual-  If t h i s  is  the  i n d i v i d u a l i s m and c o m p e t i t i o n c o n t r i b u t e to low  synergy and low synergy r e s t r i c t s the c a p a c i t y o f a s o c i a l system t o satisfy  i t s members, why do such systems not o n l y e x i s t but appear  f l o u r i s h and even dominate o t h e r , more s y n e r g i s t i c help e x p l a i n t h i s  Two  arguments  difficulty.  Recent p s y c h o l o g i c a l  game experiments appear to s u p p o r t Mead's  concern t h a t c o o p e r a t i v e b e h a v i o r has 'advancing  systems?  to  little  groups w i t h c o m p e t i t i v e v a l u e s ' .  to p r o t e c t i t  against  Competitive behavior  tends  to f o r c e c o o p e r a t i v e i n d i v i d u a l s and groups t o adopt c o m p e t i t i v e b e h a v i o r  f o r t h e i r own s u r v i v a l , even in s i t u a t i o n s would be more a p p r o p r i a t e ( B u t t - F i n n , defences a g a i n s t  in which c o o p e r a t i v e b e h a v i o r The handshake may have a few  1974).  the sword, and may be f o r c e d , f o r s u r v i v a l , t o take up the  sword, but t h a t i s weak e v i d e n c e that the sword i s u l t i m a t e l y s u p e r i o r achieving social objectives.  Dominances,  in  t h e r e f o r e , may not be an  appropriate c r i t e r i o n for evaluating social  systems.  It appears from t h i s t h a t low l e v e l s of synergy may p r e c l u d e many or even most members o f a s o c i e t y from d e v e l o p i n g t h e m s e l v e s , t h a t s o c i a l synergy may be a c o n d i t i o n o f s o c i e t a l development.  That being the c a s e ,  development e f f o r t s which have tended to reduce synergy may be i n h e r e n t l y anti-developmental.  It  i s t h e r e f o r e i m p e r a t i v e t h a t the concept o f  synergy be a p p l i e d t o the development p r o c e s s , and t h a t the t r a n s f e r o f t e c h n o l o g y and c o m p e t i t i v e v a l u e s be examined more c r i t i c a l l y .  Synergy  may be p l o t t e d on a development m a t r i x w i t h a measure o f the l e v e l t e c h n o l o g y , or f o r example, per c a p i t a income.  Each may be seen as a  c o n t r i b u t o r t o the s a t i s f a c t i o n o f p h y s i o l o g i c a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l (As the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of the t e c h n o l o g y  of  needs.  i s more re 1 e v a n t - - i . e . a very  h i g h l e v e l o f t e c h n o l o g y may a c t u a l l y a l i e n a t e i n d i v i d u a l s — b u t h a r d e r to a s s e s s , per c a p i t a income has been used as an a l t e r n a t i v e i n d i c a t o r . ) On t h i s s i m p l i s t i c m a t r i x , development would be seen as a movement toward the t h i r d quadrant.  There are numerous o t h e r c r i t e r i a o f development  which d i f f e r e n t s o c i e t i e s may choose to employ.  Individual  freedom, f o r  example, as c o n c e i v e d i n Western d e m o c r a t i c i d e o l o g y may be a p r e c o n d i t i o n (as Maslow s u g g e s t s ) o r i t may be p e r c e i v e d d i f f e r e n t l y and v a l u e d much l e s s by some o t h e r s o c i e t i e s . however, effort  The p o i n t being s t r e s s e d  in t h i s  thesis,  i s t h a t some o f the c r i t e r i a on which c o n s i d e r a b l e developmental  i s based, may not w a r r a n t a h i g h p r i o r i t y .  An i n c r e a s e  in synergy  may be more developmental than an i n c r e a s e i n per c a p i t a incomes and an  13  PER CAPITA INCOME LOW  HIGH  HIGH B  1  F  SYNERGY  4  E  LOW  increase  in per c a p i t a incomes, at the expense of synergy i s very  likely  t o be a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t a 1 . To s e r v e as and the p o s i t i o n s  i l l u s t r a t i o n s , though synergy has not been measured are g u e s t i o n a b l e ,  a few c o u n t r i e s have been p l o t t e d  on the m a t r i x . A.  Peoples R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a : per c a p i t a income, 1973, $270.; appears t o have a h i g h l e v e l o f s y n e r g y , i f r e p o r t s o f worker and peasant p a r t i c i p a t i o n , of egual o p p o r t u n i t i e s to c r e a t e , i n n o vate and undertake t r a i n i n g are t r u e . F u r t h e r development may (depending on the Chinese p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e i r needs) r e g u i r e an i n c r e a s e in some o t h e r a r e a s - - p e r h a p s i n d i v i d u a l freedom, o r m a t e r i a l w e l l b e i n g - - b u t t h a t cannot be determined o b j e c t i v e l y .  B.  Ghana: per c a p i t a income, 1973, $300.; l i k e many ' t r a d i t i o n a l ' s o c i e t i e s , appears to have a high l e v e l of s y n e r g y , r e f l e c t e d in such t h i n g s as s t o o l lands ( p u b l i c h o l d i n g o f l a n d ) , extended f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s and s u p p o r t . Care must be taken t o m a i n t a i n t h i s synergy as o t h e r developmental concerns are a d d r e s s e d .  C.  Haiti: per c a p i t a income, 1973, $130.; per c a p i t a incomes are lower and o p p r e s s i o n p r o b a b l y worse h e r e , but much o f f e u d a l L a t i n America and a t l e a s t p a r t s of I n d i a belong in t h i s guadrant. It i s dangerous to confuse ' C w i t h ' A ' or ' B ' .  14 D.  J a p a n : per c a p i t a income, 1973, $3,630.; whether Japanese ' c o l l e c t i v e c o m p e t i t i o n ' o r 'synergy w i t h i n small groups' i s more developmental than Western i n d i v i d u a l i s m i s d i f f i c u l t t o determine. I have p l a c e d i t h i g h e r because the i n d i v i d u a l appears t o d e r i v e c o n s i d e r a b l e support from h i s group, though t h e r e i s a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t p r e s s u r e t o c o n t r i b u t e to t h e group.  E.  The U n i t e d S t a t e s : per c a p i t a income, 1973. $6,200.; p r o b a b l y the epitome o f the P r o t e s t a n t E t h i c and rugged i n d i v i d u a l i s m , though i t i s f o l l o w i n g o t h e r a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s i n i n c r e a s i n g i t s concern f o r p u b l i c w e l f a r e . I t s low l e v e l o f synergy may p r e c l u d e many i n d i v i d u a l s from d e v e l o p i n g t h e m s e l v e s , making i t , by t h i s c r i t e r i o n , an underdeveloped c o u n t r y .  F.  Bulgari a:  G.  Greece:  per c a p i t a income, 1973. $1 ,590.; and per c a p i t a income, 1973, $1,870.  B u l g a r i a and Greece were c a r e f u l l y chosen t o compare l e v e l s o f social  performance between two c o u n t r i e s , East and West, w i t h comparable  pre-W.W.I I h i s t o r y , geography, p o p u l a t i o n , r e s o u r c e s , (Apel and S t r u m p e l , 1976). each c o u n t r y .  F i v e hundred  t e c h n o l o g y and incomes  i n d i v i d u a l s were i n t e r v i e w e d i n  I n e q u a l i t y and p a r t i c u l a r l y i n s e c u r i t y  i n Greece were much  h i g h e r and c o n t r i b u t e d t o h i g h e r l e v e l s o f apprehension and g e n e r a l  dissatisfaction.  about the f u t u r e  In B u l g a r i a where v i r t u a l l y everyone  inter-  viewed e i t h e r worked f o r t h e s t a t e o r was a f a r m e r , t h e r e was a much h i g h e r l e v e l o f s a t i s f a c t i o n and a h i g h l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e f u t u r e . Bulgarians,  No  but 17 percent o f the Greeks f e l t they were worse o f f than a  decade p r e v i o u s l y ;  the Greeks had g r e a t e r j o b m o b i l i t y and h i g h e r e x p e c t a -  t i o n s , b u t low j o b s a t i s f a c t i o n . "The s t r o n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n the sense o f w e l l - b e i n g between B u l g a r i a n s and Greeks p o i n t out t h e importance of i n t e r p e r s o n a l and i n t e r t e m p o r a l comparisons. Large d i f f e r e n t i a l s o f income and w e a l t h , and unsteady employment, p r i c e s ( i n f l a t i o n ) , and i n d i v i d u a l consumption l e v e l s (due t o s i c k n e s s and d i s a b i l i t y ) , are c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f the Greek e x p e r i e n c e . A move toward e q u a l i t y and c o n t i n u i t y in the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f rewards may w e l l be a p p r o p r i a t e i n a d e v e l o p ment s t r a t e g y t h a t t r i e s t o r e s p e c t the l i m i t s o f contemporary man's c a p a c i t y f o r coping w i t h s o c i a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n and change." (Apel and S t r u m p e l , 1976) From t h i s  i t appears  the s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n  in Bulgaria  more t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l ' s w e l l - b e i n g than does t h a t i n Greece.  contributes While  15 Bulgaria,  l i k e C h i n a , may l a c k o t h e r developmental c r i t e r i a ,  to have a high  level of synergy.  From t h i s paths.  It  i t does appear  i t i s e v i d e n t t h a t s o c i a l e v o l u t i o n has taken s e v e r a l  is e g u a l l y apparent t h a t no one s o c i a l system, and p a r t i c u l a r l y  the a f f l u e n t w e s t , has a c l a i m to the r i g h t p a t h . argument can be pursued  further.  This  evolutionary  One of the most b a s i c assumptions  under-  l y i n g c u r r e n t development e f f o r t s i s the b e l i e f , the m i s c o n c e p t i o n , t h a t s o c i a l e v o l u t i o n can be and has been e v a l u a t e d . Historians historical  are no doubt a p p a l l e d by the frequency w i t h which  arguments  much as b i o l o g i s t s  are presented w i t h o u t an h i s t o r i c a l  r e a c t to " e v o l u t i o n a r y " a n a l o g i e s .  perspective,  The assumption  that  e v o l u t i o n a r y s o c i a l experiments can be c o n c l u s i v e l y e v a l u a t e d i n a p e r i o d o f at most a c o u p l e o f c e n t u r i e s t o t a l l y ignores h i s t o r y and n a t u r a l h i s t o r y .  the e v i d e n c e o f s o c i a l  Yet t h i s assumption  i s so p r e v a l e n t , very  few i n d i v i d u a l s q u e s t i o n such e p i t h e t s as " d e v e l o p e d " and " u n d e r d e v e l o p e d " and ask  i f t h e r e i s any more j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r such terms now than at the  time o f the a n c i e n t empires of C h i n a , E g y p t , o r M i d d l e A m e r i c a . pessimism t o r e c o g n i z e that o t h e r s o c i a l have f l o u r i s h e d and v a n i s h e d .  It  systems and indeed o t h e r  is  not  species,  I am not p r e d i c t i n g man's e x t i n c t i o n , nor  t h a t o f h i s Western s o c i o - e c o n o m i c  system.  I am e c h o i n g Dubos'  (1966)  concern t h a t our r a t e o f s o c i a l change may o u t s t r i p our c a p a c i t y to adapt, y e t t h a t our a b i l i t y t o adapt may mask c h r o n i c and l a t e n t problems the u l t i m a t e t o l e r a n c e p o i n t i s  reached.  C o n t i n u i n g w i t h t h i s e v o l u t i o n a r y argument: f o r a d a p t a b i l i t y and e v o l u t i o n a r y s u c c e s s . a high but n o n e t h e l e s s unchanged  until  diversity  is a necessity  Our g e n e t i c d i v e r s i t y  provides  l i m i t e d degree o f a d a p t a b i l i t y , being v i r t u a l l y  s i n c e Cro-Magnon times  extended t o s o c i a l s y s t e m s — b o t h  (Dubos, 1966).  L o g i c a l l y t h i s may be  i n t e r - and i n t r a s o c i e t a l  diversity.  C o m p e t i t i v e s o c i e t i e s tend t o f e a t u r e , among o t h e r t h i n g s scale  (Mead,  a single  1937), a f e a t u r e w h i c h , b e s i d e s d i s c r i m i n a t i n g a g a i n s t  w i t h o u t the a p p r o p r i a t e a p t i t u d e , may l i m i t the s o c i e t i e s ' ability.  success those  adaptive  G l o b a l l y , t h e c e n t r a l theme o f t h i s paper i s the r e j e c t i o n o f  a t t e m p t s t o impose an as y e t p o o r l y e v a l u a t e d s o c i a l system on o t h e r s o c i a l systems.  P a r t o f the r a t i o n a l e f o r t h i s p o s i t i o n  d i v e r s i t y and a l t e r n a t i v e approaches.  i s the consequent  B r i e f l y summarizing t o t h i s  loss of point,  i t i s suggested t h e r e a r e i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t man has a v a r i e t y o f needs which must be s a t i s f i e d f o r h i s development and f u l f i l l m e n t .  These needs may  have a h i e r a r c h i c a l o r d e r i n g - - s a t i s f a c t i o n o f " h i g h e r " needs may be dependent on the p r i o r s a t i s f a c t i o n of more " b a s i c " needs. universal, most).  inherent  in a l l men, though o b v i o u s l y  These needs may be  f r u s t r a t e d in many  Whether t h i s p a r t i c u l a r set o f needs, o r the h i e r a r c h y  in which  Maslow has p l a c e d them, are u n i v e r s a l however,  i s not o f c r i t i c a l  ance.  terms o f the  One may p r e f e r t o t h i n k in more general  "need f o r p o s i t i v e e f f e c t ing but u n d e r l i e s  it."  (which)  1959).  import-  universal  i s not a product o f c u l t u r a l  (Goldschmidt,  (or  condition-  What i s c r i t i c a l  is  the  r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t at l e a s t some o f these needs a r e common t o a l l men, t h a t most,  i f not a l l these needs can o n l y be s a t i s f i e d by s o c i a l  and t h a t many o f these needs appear t o have l e v e l s beyond t h e b a s i c n e c e s s i t i e s  arrangements,  l i t t l e c o n n e c t i o n w i t h economic  for survival.  D i f f e r e n t s o c i a l systems appear to have d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f s y n e r g y — d i f f e r e n t c a p a c i t i e s t o s a t i s f y or f r u s t r a t e t h e s e i n d i v i d u a l needs. appears  t h a t s o c i e t y must not o n l y p r o v i d e the s t i m u l a t i o n o r  challenge  f o r c r e a t i v i t y and development but i t must a l s o p r o v i d e the s e c u r i t y s t a b i l i t y upon which a l l stimulation?  i n d i v i d u a l s depend t o some degree.  How much s t a b i l i t y ?  C l e a r l y t h e r e is too l i t t l e  It  and  How much  How does one induce synergy? i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e at t h i s time t o  d e s i g n t h e p e r f e c t s o c i a l system. arrive.  It  i s p o s s i b l e such a time w i l l  never  There i s , however, enough evidence t o w a r r a n t the s e r i o u s  guestion-  i n g o f attempts t o model one s o c i e t y on a n o t h e r , p a r t i c u l a r l y where i n t e n t and/or e f f e c t i s d i s r u p t i o n o f the e x i s t i n g s o c i a l system. disruption g r e a t l y increases destroys  even more  security  i t provided.  In the absence  o f i n d i v i d u a l and s o c i a l w e l f a r e , such attempts  i t would appear t h a t s o c i a l systems w i t h low l e v e l s  synergy o r low l e v e l s o f w e l f a r e might  l e a r n from those w i t h high  o f synergy and w e l f a r e , r a t h e r than those w i t h low l e v e l s o f o r per c a p i t a (monetary) as i t i s suggested, income does. Individual  of  levels  technology  income a t t e m p t i n g t o mimic those w i t h h i g h e r ,  if  synergy c o r r e l a t e s mores c l o s e l y w i t h w e l f a r e than  But s o c i a l systems d i f f e r from one another  i n numerous  ways.  and s o c i e t a l v a l u e s may d i f f e r , and t h e p h y s i c a l , c a p i t a l and  human resources  upon which s o c i e t y draws d i f f e r .  subsystems have d i f f e r e n t s t a t u s  Consequently  different  and impact in the s o c i a l system.  There  l i t t l e e v i d e n c e one s o c i a l system i s s u p e r i o r to another and even  less understanding performance  o f how one s o c i e t y might be changed to improve  in d e l i v e r i n g w e l f a r e .  These two f a c t s put s e v e r e  its  limits  on t h e a b i l i t y t o t r a n s p o r t e x p e r i e n c e between s o c i a l systems w i t h any degree o f r e l i a b i l i t y w i t h o u t e x t e n s i v e i n q u i r y  i n t o subsystem i n t e r -  a c t i o n in both s o c i e t i e s and leave l i t t l e j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r s o c i a l  evange-  l i s m or mimi c r y . To b r i e f l y summarize, development performance, an i n c r e a s e in the needs' society.  are  suspect.  Logically,  is also  Such  s o c i e t a l s t i m u l a t i o n but a l s o v i r t u a l l y  s t a b i l i t y and the necessary  o f adeguate measurements  the  i s the improvement  in a s o c i e t y ' s  s a t i s f a c t i o n o f the members o f  A p r i o r i t y must presumably be g i v e n t o the u n i v e r s a l  f a c t i o n o f the d e f i c i e n c y needs t o some minimal l e v e l .  satis-  The l e v e l  of  the  18 social  performance  (what  i s more commonly c a l l e d i t s  i s the e x t e n t t o which the s o c i e t y p r o v i d e s i t s members and p r o v i d e s  level of  development)  f o r the b a s i c needs o f  al1  an environment c o n d u c i v e t o the w i d e s p r e a d  a t i o n o f t h e i r growth needs.  Where a s o c i e t y cannot p r o v i d e f o r  s a t i s f a c t i o n nor p r o v i d e such an environment, e i t h e r through r e s o u r c e s , o r g a n i z a t i o n or technology o r through  realiz-  this  inadeguate  ineguitable d i s t r i b u t i o n  o f t h e s e , such t h a t some members o f s o c i e t y are s a t i s f i e d w h i l e o t h e r s not, that s o c i e t y i t s members'  i s underdeveloped.  d e f i c i e n c y and growth needs depends on s e v e r a l  The economic resources deficiency  The a b i l i t y o f a s o c i e t y t o  satisfy  factors.  and output are i m p o r t a n t , p a r t i c u l a r l y in meeting  requirements.  However, an environment o f freedom, j u s t i c e and  o r d e r l i n e s s , w i t h a mix o f both s t i m u l a t i o n and s t a b i l i t y , appears e g u a l l y necessary met.  are  t o be  f o r development, p a r t i c u l a r l y once the d e f i c i e n c y needs  are  S o c i a l synergy may, i n a d d i t i o n , be a p r e r e g u i s i t e t o development,  f o r where l e v e l s o f synergy are low, some members o f s o c i e t y s a t i s f y needs a t the expense of o t h e r members.  their  Where some members have t h e o p p o r -  t u n i t y f o r development b l o c k e d i n t h i s way, the s o c i e t y cannot be c o n sidered developed. F i n a l l y , the s a t i s f a c t i o n of the v a r i o u s d e f i c i e n c y needs and the v a r i o u s o f the e n t i r e s o c i a l system. d i v e r s e need.  physical  and  psychological  growth needs depend on the performance  No one subsystem can p r o v i d e f o r such  To remain h e a l t h y , t h e r e f o r e , a s o c i e t y must f u n c t i o n as  an i n t e g r a t e d system, and no one subsystem ought to a t t a i n a dominant position.  In many c a p i t a l i s t c o u n t r i e s , f o r example, the pre-eminance  o f t h e economic system has reduced the e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f o t h e r l i k e the f a m i l y . religious system.  institutions,  In o t h e r s o c i e t i e s the pre-eminance o f , f o r example,  i n s t i t u t i o n s , may i n h i b i t the e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f the economic Development,  in short,  i s a h o l i s t i c c o n c e p t , which can o n l y be  a s s e s s e d by the q u a l i t a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n o f the v a r i o u s  components  by the  members of each s o c i e t y . The a n a l y s i s which f o l l o w s  i s an attempt to assess the e x t e n t t o  which the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f the economic r e s o u r c e s  has  i n c r e a s e d and, more  i m p o r t a n t l y , the e x t e n t t o which they and o t h e r s o c i a l o u t p u t s i n c r e a s e d the w e l l - b e i n g o f the members o f s o c i e t i e s  have  i n the T h i r d W o r l d .  20 CHAPTER 2  THE RECORD  I n s o f a r as most o f the development e f f o r t has f o c u s s e d on a c h i e v i n g economic growth on the assumption mental o r t h a t i t p r o v i d e s  is develop-  the w h e r e w i t h a l ! t o s a t i s f y needs and thus  achieve development, we w i l l 2.1  t h a t e i t h e r economic growth  look at t h a t component of the r e c o r d  first.  The Economic Growth Record Measuring economic growth, as d e f i n e d by Lewis  (1955) as  simply,  "growth o f output per head o f p o p u l a t i o n " p r e s e n t s enough problems i t s e l f , p a r t i c u l a r l y in non-market o r non-monetized systems, s e r i o u s l y t h e v a l u e o f measures o f gross n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t . however, t h i s c o n v e n t i o n a l measurement w i l l  to  in  limit  At t h i s  point,  be used, not so much t o compare  the a b s o l u t e o r even r e l a t i v e l e v e l s o f economic o u t p u t among s o c i e t i e s t o i n d i c a t e the changes in l e v e l s o f o u t p u t . t h r e e reasons:  first,  as  T h i s may be j u s t i f i a b l e f o r  i f the r e c o r d o f development  is t o be a s s e s s e d ,  much o f the e f f o r t was d i r e c t e d toward i n c r e a s i n g economic growth, i t  and is  o n l y f i t t i n g t h a t the assessment i n c l u d e an a n a l y s i s of the e f f e c t o f t h a t effort  in terms o f i t s o b j e c t i v e s .  Second, GNP, d e s p i t e i t s  limitations  and the g e n e r a l acceptance o f those l i m i t a t i o n s by e c o n o m i s t s , convenient short-hand  ( w i t h the i n e v i t a b l e apology)  "because  a v a i l a b l e " , by e c o n o m i s t s , p l a n n e r s and d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s .  i s used as a  i t i s the best  T h i r d , and t h i s  may be a weak argument, as most o f the development e f f o r t has been a p p l i e d t o i n c r e a s e economic growth, one might e x p e c t t h e g r e a t e s t amount o f improvement in t h a t s e c t o r .  A low l e v e l o f economic g r o w t h , t h e n , may be  taken to i n d i c a t e a low l e v e l o f development, which i s much more d i f f i c u l t to measure than economic growth.  It  i s not i m p o s s i b l e , of c o u r s e ,  that  the s t r a t e g i e s designed t o promote growth, though f a i l i n g i n t h a t , d i d produce o t h e r developmental changes.  The problem o f a s s e s s i n g t h i s  growth  21 i s even more d i f f i c u l t An assessment  than measuring  it.  o f the growth s t r a t e g i e s and e f f o r t s r e q u i r e s some  measure o f the input to t h a t e f f o r t . T h i r d World economic growth?  How much has been spent t o s t i m u l a t e  F o r e i g n a i d i s e a s i l y measured--A8.7  from the West in 1973 ( U . N . , 197Aa)--but gets i t ?  Magdoff  (1969),  how e f f i c i e n t l y  is  billion  i t used?  Who  Frank (1969), and Bauer (197 *), among o t h e r s , 1  argue c o n v i n c i n g l y t h a t much a i d is d e l i b e r a t e l y a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t a l , c r e a t i n g indebtedness and economic dependence, i n h i b i t i n g l o c a l ment.  develop-  A f u r t h e r $12 b i l l i o n o f p r i v a t e c a p i t a l , l a r g e l y in d i r e c t i n v e s t -  ment, flowed i n t o the T h i r d World from the West in 1973, but i t s impact on n a t i o n a l economic growth i s no e a s i e r t o a s s e s s .  How much was used t o  e s t a b l i s h s u b s i d i a r i e s t o supply parent companies, o r t o assemble and market e s s e n t i a l l y f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s , p e r m i t t i n g c o r p o r a t i o n s t o a v o i d taxes?  How much p r o f i t was l o s t t o the parent c o r p o r a t i o n s ?  combined i n f u s i o n o f $20.7 b i l l i o n  To t h i s  (from t h e West, i n 1973), would have t o  be added s i m i l a r i n f u s i o n s from t h e s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s and a l l i n t e r n a l growth and development budgets.  The i n t e r n a l monies would i n c l u d e those  f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , p u b l i c c o r p o r a t i o n s , s u b s i d i e s o f v a r i o u s types f o r  local  o r e x p a t r i a t e e n t e r p r i s e s , and p o r t i o n s o f budgets f o r h e a l t h s e r v i c e s and f a c i l i t i e s , e d u c a t i o n , f a m i l y p l a n n i n g and p o s s i b l y even p a r t o f the m i l i t a r y ' s or m i n i s t r y of foreign a f f a i r s ' . c o n s i d e r a b l e ( e s t i m a t e d a t $170 b i l l i o n ing the f i g u r e i s d i f f i c u l t e n o u g h — u s i n g  The t o t a l  investment must be  in 197^ (Powers, 1975)).  Calculat-  i t in a meaningful way to a s s e s s  the e f f i c i e n c y o f growth s t r a t e g i e s would be i m p o s s i b l e .  Any  assessment  o f the e f f o r t a p p l i e d to T h i r d World economic growth must t h e r e f o r e be very g e n e r a l ; any p r e t e n c e o f e m p i r i c a l r e l i a b i l i t y  i s u n j u s t i f i e d in the presence  o f so many unanswered (and unanswerable) g u e s t i o n s . assessed.  We are l e f t , t h e n , w i t h e f f e c t i v e n e s s .  E f f i c i e n c y cannot be  Measuring  the e f f e c t o f t h i s e f f o r t i s h a r d l y l e s s  O b v i o u s l y , w i t h the d i v e r s i t y o f s o c i a l systems,  difficult.  t h e r e can be no c o n t r o l  s u b j e c t s , so i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o determine the amount o f growth o r d e v e l o p ment, t h e e x t e n t o f unsolved problems, had no e x p l i c i t s t r a t e g i e s employed.  been  Burma r e j e c t e d s t r a t e g i e s o f economic growth, but i t was (and  i s ) one o f the few food e x p o r t e r s .  (Burma's GNP per c a p i t a i n c r e a s e d an  annual average o f 0.7 percent from 1965 t o 1973-)  It would not be  p o s s i b l e , on t h e b a s i s o f the Burmese e x p e r i e n c e , t o e s t i m a t e where a p a r t i c u l a r s o c i e t y would be had i t not f o l l o w e d p a r t i c u l a r growth s t r a t e gies.  E v a l u a t i n g l o n g - t e r m and s h o r t - t e r m investment  g e n e r a l l y o v e r l o o k e d by measuring c h a n g e — c h i l d r e n telephones o r d o c t o r s p e r 1,000 persons,  i s d i f f i c u l t and  i n s c h o o l , number o f  n u t r i t i o n and d i s e a s e  w i t h GNP per head the major s i n g l e measure o f s u c c e s s .  levels,  An investment i n  e d u c a t i o n o r i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , not y e t r e f l e c t e d i n i n c r e a s e d GNP, may n o n e t h e l e s s be s i g n i f i c a n t . investment  On t h e o t h e r hand, how e f f i c i e n t  i n e d u c a t i o n o r i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i n r a i s i n g GNP?  To suggest  economic growth can be f a i r l y a p p r a i s e d w i t h these l o n g - t e r m not taken i n t o account i s perhaps However,  i s an  investments  misleading.  i n s p i t e o f the d i f f i c u l t i e s o f i d e n t i f y i n g , measuring  and weighing t h e components o f economic growth, the development e f f o r t f o r t h e T h i r d World has been g e n e r a l l y e v a l u a t e d and t h e r e appears t o be a f a i r l y broad consensus on s e v e r a l First,  t h e o v e r a l l r a t e o f economic growth i n the T h i r d World has  been d i s a p p o i n t i n g . '60's) f a i l  important p o i n t s .  Not o n l y d i d the F i r s t Development Decade ( t h e  t o produce the "minimum 5 p e r c e n t growth t a r g e t s e t f o r  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , " the aggregate  r a t e r e p r e s e n t e d no improvement over  the 195^+-1964 growth r a t e and many c o u n t r i e s a c t u a l l y e x p e r i e n c e d n e g a t i v e growth i n p e r c a p i t a income (U.N.,  1967)-  More recent f i g u r e s  (World Bank  At 1 a s ,  1975)  i n d i c a t e t h e r e has s t i l l  been no improvement.  From 1965 to  1973, o f 39 A s i a n c o u n t r i e s , t e n , o r 26 p e r c e n t , had a n e g a t i v e annual growth r a t e o f GNP per c a p i t a . the 1960 t o 1973 p e r i o d .  average  T h i s was up from 1 (18 p e r c e n t )  for  Almost 50 p e r c e n t o f these c o u n t r i e s had per  c a p i t a GNP growth r a t e s below 2 p e r c e n t per year from 1965 t o 1973.  In  A f r i c a and South America i t was hi percent and hi percent o f the c o u n t r i e s r e s p e c t i v e l y w i t h annual averages below 2 p e r c e n t , i n c l u d i n g , i n A f r i c a another 8 nations  (15 percent o f the 53) w i t h n e g a t i v e per c a p i t a growth  and a n o t h e r one i n South A m e r i c a . 1973 p e r i o d .  T h i s too was worse than the 1960 t o  In c o n t r a s t , none o f the 39 market economies o f Europe had a  per c a p i t a growth r a t e below 2 p e r c e n t o v e r e i t h e r o f these p e r i o d s . These d i f f e r e n c e s mask t h e w i d e d i f f e r e n c e s among T h i r d World countries.  Thirteen countries  (with p o p u l a t i o n s over one m i l l i o n each)  had per c a p i t a average annual growth r a t e s above 5 p e r c e n t from 1965 t o 1973: N i g e r i a , L i b y a n Arab R e p u b l i c , Japan, R e p u b l i c o f Korea,  Iran,  R e p u b l i c o f C h i n a , Saudi A r a b i a , Hong Kong,  Dominican  R e p u b l i c , B r a z i l and Papua New G u i n e a .  I s r a e l , Singapore,  Of t h e s e , t h r e e (Libyan Arab  R e p u b l i c , Japan and I s r a e l ) have per c a p i t a incomes  (1973) above $3,000  and can h a r d l y be c o n s i d e r e d poor (though o f course they may be underdeveloped) and a n o t h e r t h r e e ( N i g e r i a , oil  producers.  Iran and Saudi A r a b i a ) a r e major  There i s n o t h i n g wrong w i t h p r o d u c i n g o i 1 , but i t i s  some-  t h i n g o f a bonanza w h i c h i s not p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l a t e d to the s u c c e s s o r f a i l u r e o f growth s t r a t e g i e s .  Indeed, N i g e r i a , from 1960 to 1965  to p r o d u c i n g o i l ) had an average annual percent.  drop i n GNP per c a p i t a o f h  Even among the remaining seven, however, t h e r e were some  spectacular increases. o f S.h  (prior  Singapore average an annual per c a p i t a GNP i n c r e a s e  percent from 1965 to 1973; Korea, 8.7 p e r c e n t ; Taiwan, 7-3 p e r c e n t ,  and B r a z i l 6.0  percent.  2k These s u c c e s s e s are even more i m p r e s s i v e understandable)  somewhat  given the g e n e r a l l y h i g h r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e .  e f f e c t of population increase w i l l it  (and the f a i l u r e s  The  be e x p l o r e d f u r t h e r in Chapter 3, but  i s worth n o t i n g here t h a t the average p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e from 1962 t o  1972 in the T h i r d World was 2.5 p e r c e n t . any i n c r e a s e s  T h i s o b v i o u s l y c u t s deeply  into  in GNP.  Even the n a t i o n a l averages  mask wide d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n c o u n t r i e s .  S p a t i a l and s e c t o r a l d i f f e r e n c e s in per c a p i t a income i n c r e a s e s w i d e l y and a study o f k3 T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s  (non-communist)  differ indicates  t h a t , w i t h few e x c e p t i o n s , the d i f f e r e n c e s are w i d e s t where r a t e s o f n a t i o n a l economic growth a r e h i g h e s t .  (Adelman and M o r r i s ,  1973-)  economic growth p r o c e e d s , " t h e p o s i t i o n o f the p o o r e s t kO p e r c e n t  As typic-  a l l y worsens in both r e l a t i v e and a b s o l u t e t e r m s " (my emphasis; Adelman and Morris,  1973 and a l s o Powers, 1975).  Excluding Israel  and J a p a n , which  b o t h have per c a p i t a incomes above $3,000 (1973), o n l y the R e p u b l i c o f Korea, Singapore and Taiwan (of non-communist  c o u n t r i e s ) have managed to  combine economic growth w i t h an e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f  increased  i ncomes. With t h e s e few e x c e p t i o n s , t h e n , the r e c o r d r e v e a l s almost 50 percent o f the T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s b a r e l y i n c r e a s i n g t h e i r average per c a p i t a incomes, incomes.  i n c l u d i n g almost 20 percent w i t h decreased per c a p i t a  And these f i g u r e s , f o r 1965 t o 1973, a r e worse, not b e t t e r than  f o r the p r e v i o u s decade.  In a d d i t i o n , the p r o v e r t y w i t h i n most c o u n t r i e s  i s i n c r e a s i n g , as most o f the i n c r e a s e d income i s r e s t r i c t e d t o the top 5 o r 10 p e r c e n t o f the p o p u l a t i o n and i s c o n c e n t r a t e d in the urban (Adelman and M o r r i s ,  areas  1973)-  On top o f t h i s g e n e r a l l y poor r e c o r d , the T h i r d World has accumul a t e d a debt o f some 130 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s from the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d West.  25 The e f f e c t o f t h i s d e b t , i s t h a t , by 1966 " a p p r o x i m a t e l y kk percent o f a i d f l o w i n g from t h e advanced t o the underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s was needed t o f i n a n c e past d e b t . "  (Magdoff, 1969).  I have not addressed t h e i s s u e o f the widening gap d i r e c t l y ,  because,  as f a r as economic growth per se i s concerned, i t i s r e a l l y a f a l s e The reason i s o b v i o u s .  issue.  If a c o u n t r y has a per c a p i t a income o f $400 a  year ( l i k e South Korea) and even manages t o i n c r e a s e i t by an i n c r e d i b l e 10 percent a y e a r , per c a p i t a income i n c r e a s e s o n l y $40.  In comparison,  i f p e r c a p i t a income i s $3,000, a modest 2 p e r cent i n c r e a s e b r i n g s $60 more.  I f each m a i n t a i n s t h a t growth r a t e f o r f i v e y e a r s , p e r c a p i t a  income w i l l  have i n c r e a s e d i n the poorer by $2*»4 and i n the r i c h e r by $312.  Even growing f i v e times f a s t e r i s n ' t f a s t  enough.  If the o b j e c t o f economic growth e f f o r t s has been t o reduce, i f not e l i m i n a t e , p o v e r t y in t h e T h i r d World and t o enable a l l people t o enjoy comparable l e v e l s o f economic w e l l - b e i n g , they have not o n l y f a i l e d g i v e n t h e magnitude o f the t a s k ,  i s c e r t a i n l y understandable)  i m p o r t a n t l y , they have l o s t ground.  (which,  but more  A f i f t h o f the c o u n t r i e s a r e worse  o f f ; h a l f a r e h a r d l y b e t t e r o f f ; and the ranks o f the poor, both i n a b s o l u t e numbers and p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y , a r e growing. These a r e sweeping g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s . exceptions.  But t h e r e e x i s t s , from t h e f a r l e f t  the i n t e r m e d i a t e t e c h n o l o g i s t liberal  There a r e , as n o t e d , a few  economists  the extreme r i g h t  (Myrdal,  (Schumacher,  1969)  through  1973; C a r r , 1976) t o t h e  1975; Adelman and M o r r i s ,  (Farmer, 1972), a s u r p r i s i n g  has not been good enough,  (Frank,  1973) and even t o  consensus t h a t the r e c o r d  t h a t new approaches must be found.  The s u b j e c t o f t h i s t h e s i s , and i t i s argued t h e o b j e c t o f d e v e l o p ment p l a n n i n g , goes beyond economic g r o w t h . have had s u b s t a n t i a l  increases  That Singapore and B r a z i l  i n GNP per c a p i t a , w h i l e China (at 4.6  26 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y , 1965  to 1973)  has had a s m a l l e r i n c r e a s e , and Cuba even  a decrease (minus 0.7 o v e r t h a t p e r i o d ) , says very l i t t l e about t h e development in each c o u n t r y .  D e s p i t e the g r e a t e r d i f f i c u l t y  and even d e f i n i n g development, i t i s t h e r e f o r e n e c e s s a r y  in measuring  t o attempt t o  a s s e s s the changes in s o c i a l performance in the T h i r d World t o determine the e x t e n t o f the impact o f developmental s t r a t e g i e s on o v e r a l l development cri teria.  2.2  The Development  Record  B e f o r e a t t e m p t i n g t o e v a l u a t e the development r e c o r d , two p o i n t s must be emphasized.  F i r s t , the d i s t i n c t i o n used here between economic  growth and development i s not a sharp one.  There are developmental  concerns o u t s i d e the scope o f economics as t h e r e i s a l s o an a r e a o f o v e r l a p .  i t i s g e n e r a l l y a p p l i e d , but  Some types o f economic growth are  l i k e l y to be developmental in almost any s o c i e t y . example, i s a t once economic and d e v e l o p m e n t a l . h e r e , r a t h e r than above,  Food p r o d u c t i o n , f o r That i t i s  i s not t o suggest i t i s an i n a p p r o p r i a t e concern  o f economics, but t h a t i t i s a type o f economic output of developmental Second,  introduced  considerable  significance. i t must be re-emphasized t h a t development i s s u b j e c t i v e .  I have attempted to d e s c r i b e the n a t u r e o f development by i n d i c a t i n g some o f the f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o i t - - t h e v a r i o u s  types o f needs people may have  and the ways s o c i e t i e s s a t i s f y those needs.  How the needs are e x p r e s s e d ,  the r e l a t i v e v a l u e s a t t a c h e d t o them, the ways s o c i e t i e s s a t i s f y o r f r u s t r a t e them has not been and l i k e l y can not be determined u n i v e r s a l l y . However, that does not mean we know n o t h i n g o f development. possible  It s h o u l d be  to use t h i s very g e n e r a l d e s c r i p t i o n o f the n a t u r e o f d e v e l o p -  ment t o g r o s s l y a s s e s s development.  M a l n u t r i t i o n , m o r t a l i t y r a t e s and  27 mental  i l l n e s s are p r o b a b l y u n i v e r s a l  criteria.  L i t e r a c y may be;  o f s e l f - e s t e e m and s a t i s f a c t i o n , b e i n g s e l f - a s s e s s e d , something  like  levels  are d e f i n i t e l y ;  i n d i v i d u a l freedom, o r p r i v a c y may be l e s s so (though  may be w i d e l y f r u s t r a t e d , u n i v e r s a l n e e d s ) . necessity, gross.  they  T h i s assessment t h e n , i s o f  Whether i n c r e a s e d r e a l wages can compensate f o r i n -  c r e a s e d mental i l l n e s s can o n l y be determined s u b j e c t i v e l y . So what can be s a i d o f the development r e c o r d o v e r the l a s t two decades?  T o t a l food p r o d u c t i o n has i n c r e a s e d w o r l d w i d e , in both the  a f f l u e n t and T h i r d World regions  ( U . N . , 1974).  The r a t e o f  increase,  however, has dropped s i g n i f i c a n t l y in a l l regions except A f r i c a . 1952 to 1962 a l l r e g i o n s but A f r i c a (at 2.2 percent a n n u a l l y )  From  increased  food p r o d u c t i o n by o v e r 3 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y , and West A s i a had a 3.4 percent growth r a t e .  From 1962 to 1972 the r a t e o f i n c r e a s e f o r a l l  regions  was down t o 2.7 percent a n n u a l l y , e x c e p t L a t i n America and West A s i a , where i t was down t o 3-1 and 3.0 p e r c e n t r e s p e c t i v e l y . annual  i n c r e a s e was an improvement o n l y in A f r i c a . )  has, however, been i n s u f f i c i e n t .  (The 2.7 p e r c e n t  This  rate of  increase  Over these two decades, the i n c r e a s e  in  per c a p i t a food p r o d u c t i o n dropped in every r e g i o n except North America and A f r i c a , and w o r l d w i d e , the 1962-1972 p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e f e l l the p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e .  With the decreased p r o d u c t i o n in 1973,  and West A s i a , the w o r l d ' s  behind  in A f r i c a  per c a p i t a food p r o d u c t i o n f o r t h a t year was  below the 1961 -1965 average.  And the FAO (1966) r e p o r t e d t h a t the  1965-1966 per c a p i t a p r o d u c t i o n in the T h i r d World was " n o b e t t e r than b e f o r e W.W.I I".  In s p i t e o f t h i s f a i l u r e t o i n c r e a s e per c a p i t a food  s u p p l y , the w o r l d s t i l l everyone's  b a s i c needs'  consumes enough food and p r o t e i n t o  satisfy  Every r e g i o n consumes more than enough p r o t e i n  ( A f r i c a and the A s i a n P a c i f i c had the lowest consumption a t 141 percent the r e g u i r e d amount  (1970), which i n c l u d e s a 10 p e r c e n t a 1lowance f o r  28 household w a s t a g e ) .  A l t h o u g h t h e w o r l d food energy consumption  adequate (101 p e r c e n t ) , t h e r e a r e r e g i o n a l  imbalances.  In 1970, o n l y  L a t i n America had an average consumption above t h e energy (106 p e r c e n t )  i n the T h i r d World.  o n l y 88 percent t h e i r energy  is just  requirement  The A s i a n planned economies  consumed  requirement, w h i l e the o t h e r poor  regions  ranged from 93 t o 97 p e r c e n t . Food p r o d u c t i o n and average consumption a r e l e s s  reliable indicators  o f development than a r e l e v e l s o f m a l n u t r i t i o n o r undernourishment, f o r " t h e s e f i g u r e s conceal among v a r i o u s ( U . N . , 1974). little  large  i n e q u a l i t i e s i n l e v e l s o f food  consumption  s o c i o - e c o n o m i c groups as w e l l as w i t h i n i n d i v i d u a l One-in-eight  families"  p e o p l e , 300 t o 500 m i l l i o n , s u f f e r from t o o  food (undernourishment),  w h i l e 1-in-2, o r 1,600 m i l l i o n s u f f e r from  p r o t e i n d e f i c i e n c y o r m a l n u t r i t i o n (Dumont and R o s i e r , s i t u a t i o n has improved o n l y s l i g h t l y  1969).  The w o r l d  i n t h i s regard s i n c e t h e Second  World  War, and t h a t has been due l a r g e l y t o imports from t h e more a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s and a few successes i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d , n o t a b l y Mexico, and the Sudan ( M M l i k a n  and Hapgood,  1967).  Taiwan,  I t may be argued, as i t was  w i t h economic growth g e n e r a l l y , t h a t j u s t keeping pace w i t h the r i s i n g population the " b i g g e s t  i s something o f an achievement.  However, w i t h m a l n u t r i t i o n  s i n g l e c o n t r i b u t o r to c h i l d m o r t a l i t y in developing  (U.N. 1974), w i t h lower p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e s  i n most r e g i o n s ,  countries"  including  the major e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s , w i t h t h e i n c r e a s i n g s c a r c i t y o f new lands a v a i l a b l e f o r c u l t i v a t i o n , and w i t h l i t t l e  promise o f a slower  i n c r e a s e , t h e f u t u r e looks b l e a k e r , not b e t t e r . improve, t h e development  r e c o r d must  population  If that p r o j e c t i o n i s t o  improve.  M o r t a l i t y r a t e s have c o n t i n u e d t o d e c l i n e i n the T h i r d W o r l d . L i f e expectancy has i n c r e a s e d t o an average 53-9 y e a r s j u s t two decades a g o ) , w i t h a r e g i o n a l  (from under 30  range from 41.3 y e a r s  i n West  29 A f r i c a t o 64 years  in both the C a r i b b e a n , and M i c r o n e s i a and P o l y n e s i a .  I n f a n t m o r t a l i t y and i n f e c t i o u s d i s e a s e s , l a r g e l y p r e v e n t a b l e , remain f a i r l y h i g h ,  both o f which are c o n s i d e r e d in s p i t e o f the d r a m a t i c o v e r a l l  improvement. The i n c r e a s e in r e a l wages i s a n o t h e r economic index o f d e v e l o p mental c o n c e r n .  The f i g u r e s  f o r many c o u n t r i e s are not p a r t i c u l a r l y  r e l i a b l e and o f t e n r e f e r o n l y to m a n u f a c t u r i n g wages, but a few c o u n t r i e s — the R e p u b l i c o f K o r e a , Hong Kong, C h i l e , B r a z i l , Ecuador, Tanzania and Zambia--appear to have had s i g n i f i c a n t  improvement, o f near o r above 5  p e r c e n t annual averages from 1965 to 1972.  " F o r most o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g  c o u n t r i e s , the r e a l wage i n c r e a s e s have been e i t h e r modest o r a b s e n t . i s d i s t u r b i n g t h a t , f o r about one t h i r d o f the c o u n t r i e s  l i s t e d (9 o f  the l e v e l o f r e a l wages in m a n u f a c t u r i n g d e c l i n e d over t h i s p e r i o d " 197^).  Another d i s t u r b i n g f e a t u r e i s the f l u c t u a t i o n s .  It 28),  (U.N.,  Ecuador's  i n c r e a s e from 1965 to 1968 averaged o n l y 2.4 p e r c e n t , but jumped to a 12.8 p e r c e n t average  1968 to 1972.  P e r u ' s went from a n e g a t i v e  percent to a h e a l t h y 5-8 percent a v e r a g e . way,  even some o f the s i g n i f i c a n t for  Ghana, however, went the o t h e r  i t s 6.3 average 1965 to 1968 d r o p p i n g t o a n e g a t i v e 1.0  average from 1968 t o 1972.  2.3  percent  The g e n e r a l poor r e c o r d and the i n s e c u r i t y o f i n c r e a s e s suggest t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e  improvement in t h i s s e c t o r as  room  well.  L i t e r a c y r a t e s have c o n t i n u e d t o improve, w i t h more than t h r e e quarters of adults  in L a t i n America l i t e r a t e , more than h a l f in the market  economies o f A s i a and over one q u a r t e r in A f r i c a ,  in 1970.  Literacy rates,  however, a r e more an i n d i c a t i o n o f exposure to s c h o o l i n g than t o the developmental  role of education.  There can be l i t t l e  doubt t h a t by  i n c r e a s i n g the i n d i v i d u a l ' s c a p a b i l i t i e s l i t e r a c y per se i s d e v e l o p m e n t a l . However, where e d u c a t i o n r a i s e s u n r e a l i s t i c e x p e c t a t i o n s , where i t degrades  the t r a d i t i o n a l v a l u e s , o c c u p a t i o n s mental at a l l .  and l i f e s t y l e s , i t may not be d e v e l o p -  L i t e r a c y r a t e s themselves  which e d u c a t i o n has  cannot  i n d i c a t e the e x t e n t t o  liberated or frustrated individuals within t h e i r s o c i -  e t y , but i t can i n d i c a t e the success a s o c i e t y has had in d i s t r i b u t i n g t h i s at l e a s t p o t e n t i a l l y l i b e r a t i n g i n f l u e n c e . L e v e l s o f personal cross-national (Strumpel,  studies,  197$).  s a t i s f a c t i o n do not c o r r e l a t e w i t h incomes  in  but they do s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h i n s o c i e t i e s  I n e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f incomes c a n , then be seen  as a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t a 1 .  The r e c o r d over the l a s t two decades  indicates  t h a t economic growth, p a r t i c u l a r l y high growth r a t e s , have c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s problem.  Income i n e q u a l i t i e s , r a t h e r than d i m i n i s h i n g , have become  e x a c e r b a t e d , and most n o t a b l y in c o u n t r i e s w i t h high growth r a t e s , B r a z i l and Mexico.  "Indeed,  i t has become c l e a r t h a t economic  i t s e l f . . . i s one o f the prime causes o f income i n e q u a l i t y . " Morris,  1973).  poorer in a b s o l u t e terms, t o the p o i n t o f ment as m a l n u t r i t i o n i n c r e a s e s i n d i c a t e the growing  (Powers,  development, but are even  inhibiting physiological  1975).  Examples  i s even l e s s p r e c i s e .  Cross-cultural  psychological  comparisons  o f mental  (197*0 concludes  t h e r e is d e f i n i t e l y an i n c r e a s e in mental d i s o r d e r s Mazrui  l i k e China and  r e c o r d in terms o f  are e x t r e m e l y u n r e l i a b l e , but the U.N.  poor c o u n t r i e s .  develop-  case.  The assessment o f the development  disorders  (Adelman and  i n e q u a l i t y i s not i n e v i t a b l e , but they  remain the e x c e p t i o n s to the general  development  growth  In many cases the poor are not o n l y poorer in r e l a t i v e  terms, which i n h i b i t s s o c i a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l  Tanzania  like  that  in both the r i c h and  (1970) argues c r i m e , c o r r u p t i o n , nepotism and  s e l f - i n t e r e s t a r e " p o l l u t i n g " the p o l i t i c a l  systems o f A f r i c a .  Scholars  a p p a r e n t l y no l o n g e r debate whether t r a d i t i o n a l s o c i e t i e s wi11 d i e , but how (Fox,  1975).  31 The type o f i n f o r m a t i o n r e q u i r e d t o a s s e s s the development adequately  i s t h a t c o l l e c t e d by M i t c h e l l  Southeast A s i a n c i t i e s . thousand  (1972) in Hong Kong and o t h e r  By i n t e r v i e w i n g a c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l  in Hong Kong, and a f u r t h e r two thousand  Singapore,  and urban M a l a y s i a ,  record  and one thousand  a b l e t o o b t a i n an i n d i c a t i o n o f p s y c h o l o g i c a l  sample o f  four  in each o f Bangkok,  in T a i p e i , M i t c h e l l was  w e l l - b e i n g in these  areas.  At the time o f the study Hong Kong had a per c a p i t a GNP growth r a t e over 7 percent a y e a r , and a growth t h e r e had been no s i g n i f i c a n t p o p u l a t i o n was s t i l l  in r e a l wages almost as h i g h .  i m m i g r a t i o n f o r over a decade, though  growing at over 2 p e r c e n t a y e a r .  The study  c o n s i d e r a b l e v a r i a t i o n between c i t i e s , so g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s are As most o f the a n a l y s i s  In a d d i t i o n ,  f o c u s s e d on Hong Kong,  it will  the  revealed  dangerous.  be used t o g i v e an  i n d i c a t i o n o f developmental concerns and t h e i r s t a t e t h e r e . Most people (59 p e r c e n t ) worry a g r e a t deal ( t h e i r own 33 percent a r e unhappy;  21 percent have a low o r very  low s e l f  assessment); esteem  (0 or 1 on a 0 to k s c a l e ) ; kk percent f e e l they a r e unhealthy  physically;  53 p e r c e n t o f 18 t o 2k year o l d s have a h i g h l e v e l o f h o s t i l i t y , and even in those over 55, 33 percent have a high worse o f f than t h e i r p a r e n t s  (though  l e v e l ; 36 percent f e e l  31 p e r c e n t f e e l  39 percent have lower o c c u p a t i o n a l s t a t u s  they a r e  they'are better o f f ) ;  than t h e i r p a r e n t s ; o n l y  16  percent see an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r s u c c e s s in t h e i r c a r e e r (compared w i t h a surprising achievement  71 percent  in Bangkok);  i s h i g h , kl  d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h t h e i r personal  p e r c e n t ; w i t h t h e i r l i v i n g s i t u a t i o n , 32 p e r c e n t ;  f o r 30 percent " n o t h i n g g i v e s s a t i s f a c t i o n " ( " c h i l d r e n " was second w i t h 2k p e r c e n t ) ; and f i n a l l y , 53 percent f e e l  they cannot c o n t r o l the  course  o f t h e i r 1i f e . This  i s not p r e s e n t e d as a t y p i c a l case.  may be a t y p i c a l .  The f i n d i n g s  It may be, but e g u a l l y ,  from the r e s t o f M i t c h e l l ' s study  indicate  it  wide v a r i a t i o n e x i s t s and t h a t l e v e l s o f performance a r e not (Singapore  had the h i g h e s t  a l s o the h i g h e s t  l e v e l s o f h o s t i l i t y and low s e l f esteem, but  l e v e l o f upward, i n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l m o b i l i t y and the lowest  l e v e l o f d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h the l i v i n g s i t u a t i o n . ) performance must i n c l u d e a w e i g h i n g o f these f a c t o r s . Singapore,  consistent.  The l e v e l s o f s o c i a l For example,  in  do the a c c e p t a b l e l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s compensate f o r the low  self-esteem?  Also,  not development  i t must be noted t h a t t h i s  (though  i s a measure o f p e r f o r m a n c e ,  the measures o f p e r c e i v e d m o b i l i t y suggest t h a t ,  f o r many, the s i t u a t i o n i s not  improving).  The p a u c i t y o f d a t a , however, ought not obscure the v a l i d i t y o f the argument. stantial  In some a r e a s , p a r t i c u l a r l y death c o n t r o l , t h e r e has been subprogress.  In o t h e r a r e a s ,  the improvement i s f a r l e s s  general.  S e v e r a l c o u n t r i e s have i n c r e a s e d t h e i r per c a p i t a income c o n s i d e r a b l y ; a h a n d f u l have managed t o r e f l e c t f o r the poor.  t h a t in improved r e a l wages and in  The n a t i o n a l a v e r a g e s ,  however, h i d e the p r e v a l e n t  increases inequities  o f incomes and food consumption w i t h i n most T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s . But our concern goes beyond t h a t , to the p o o r l y documented e v i d e n c e o f s o c i a l d i s r u p t i o n and u n r e s t .  If  i t i s t r u e t h a t i n d i v i d u a l development  depends on a r e a s o n a b l y secure and p r e d i c t a b l e s o c i a l system and t h a t most s o c i e t i e s have e v o l v e d t o p r o v i d e an at l e a s t m i n i m a l l y a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l o f performance, then i t must be argued, on l o g i c a l grounds i f not e m p i r i c a l , t h a t the r e c o g n i z e d t r a n s i t i o n (or death) o f many s o c i a l systems w i l l pronounced, antidevelopmenta1  repercussions.  have  U n t i l more e m p i r i c a l work  i s done, the case cannot be made much s t r o n g e r  than t h i s .  Th*ere i s some  e v i d e n c e t h a t development i s not o c c u r r i n g o r i s o c c u r r i n g o n l y very s l o w l y , and t h a t some decreases stantially  in performance a r e a l s o e v i d e n t .  There i s  sub-  l e s s e v i d e n c e t h a t what economic growth has o c c u r r e d in the  T h i r d World has c o n t r i b u t e d to development.  As the e f f e c t s o f  rapid  social  change reach the v a s t  the successes  rural populations,  the problems  a r e l i k e l y t o become more p r e v a l e n t .  r a t h e r than  CHAPTER 3  THE REASONS FOR THE POOR RECORD  N e i t h e r the r e c o r d o f economic growth nor t h a t o f development been i m p r e s s i v e .  has  Both r e v e a l some success but on the whole the s i t u a t i o n  today i s l i t t l e b e t t e r than two decades ago.  The r e c o r d o f economic growth  appears t o be w o r s e n i n g , not improving and t h e r e are i n d i c a t i o n s , though as c o n c r e t e , t h a t t h i s  i s a l s o the case w i t h development.  There i s  concern t h a t the problems are i n c r e a s i n g , t h a t w i t h o u t a change o f the downward t r e n d w i l l will  c o n t i n u e and perhaps a c c e l e r a t e .  attempt t o e x p l a i n the reasons f o r these f a i l u r e s .  This  not  also course  chapter  J u s t as we found  d i f f e r e n t s o c i e t i e s have d i f f e r e n t mixes o f problems, o r s i m i l a r problems but d i f f e r i n g i n t e n s i t i e s , i t w i l l problems can have a v a r i e t y o f  3.1  become e v i d e n t here t h a t even s i m i l a r  causes.  Causes o f the Poor Growth Record Where the economic growth r e c o r d i s a s s e s s e d in terms o f per c a p i t a  increases, obviously  the r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n growth i s  important.  The  average annual r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e in the T h i r d World from 1965 t o 1973 was 2.5 p e r c e n t , up o n l y s l i g h t l y from the p r e v i o u s  f i v e years.  Some o f the lowest r a t e s were in the West A s i a n c o u n t r i e s w i t h the h i g h e s t increases  i n per c a p i t a GNP (Singapore  averaged 1.8 p e r c e n t ; K o r e a ,  Taiwan, however, i n c r e a s e d a t 2.8 percent a n n u a l l y .  In none o f  1.9).  these  cases would an average o r even above average r a t e of i n c r e a s e in p o p u l a t i o n have negated t h e i r per c a p i t a income g a i n s .  This  i s a l s o t r u e o f the o i l  p r o d u c e r s , most o f which had p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e s above 3 p e r c e n t (though Saudi A r a b i a ' s was o n l y 1.7) • critical,  P o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s were most  in t h i s sense, where i n c r e a s e s  in GNP were much lower.  Most  A f r i c a n and L a t i n American c o u n t r i e s had p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s above 2  p e r c e n t and many above 3 p e r c e n t a year from 1965 to 1973-  But  there  d o e s n ' t appear t o be much c o r r e l a t i o n between r a t e s o f i n c r e a s e o f popul a t i o n and o f GNP, w i t h i n these a r e a s . of population  increase  but  rates  (.1.8 p e r c e n t ) , yet had a per c a p i t a l o s s o f  income (minus 0.7 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y ) . (3.3 p e r c e n t )  Cuba has one o f the lowest  Venezuela's  population  growth  c u t i t s per c a p i t a GNP i n c r e a s e t o a 1.3 p e r c e n t  Ivory Coast, w i t h the f a s t e s t growing p o p u l a t i o n  m a i n t a i n e d a 3-0 percent i n c r e a s e  (h.0  in per c a p i t a income.  p o p u l a t i o n growth at 2 p e r c e n t o r l e s s ,  average,  percent a year) Had i t h e l d  i t would have j o i n e d the few w i t h a  5 p e r c e n t o r b e t t e r per c a p i t a GNP average  increase.  As t h e r e  probably  a r e n ' t any c o u n t r i e s a c t u a l l y s h o r t o f p e o p l e , what t h i s means i s  simply  t h a t a lower p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e would make a h i g h e r GNP per c a p i t a growth  r a t e t h a t much e a s i e r .  It may a l s o mean many c o u n t r i e s d i d w e l l  have even a small per c a p i t a income i n c r e a s e . cause o f low GNP per c a p i t a i n c r e a s e s — m a n y inadequate  increases  i f population  to  But i t is not the o n l y  c o u n t r i e s would s t i l l  have  i n c r e a s e s were c o n t r o l l e d at  1.5  percent a year. There are s e v e r a l e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s which the T h i r d W o r l d .  I have a l r e a d y  impede economic growth  r e f e r r e d to the burden o f debt  which t a k e s some kh p e r c e n t o f f o r e i g n a i d . than s i m p l y the amount t o be r e p a i d .  But the burden i s  in  servicing, greater  The a i d o f t e n has s t r i n g s  attached.  Equipment has t o be purchased from the donor c o u n t r y , b i n d i n g the r e c i p i e n t t o a l e v e l o f t e c h n o l o g y which may not be a p p r o p r i a t e and t o a s u p p l i e r o f p a r t s who demands hard c u r r e n c y . currency.  The r e c i p i e n t  to obtain t h i s currency,  is  And the debt s e r v i c i n g  then f o r c e d t o i n v e s t  requires  in export a c t i v i t i e s  l i m i t i n g h i s o p t i o n s o f growth  strategies.  The l i m i t a t i o n s on the o p t i o n s may be more than academic. the "development o f underdevelopment"  (Frank,  1969)  hard  o r merely the  Whether  p r e s e r v a t i o n o f an e x p l o i t i v e systems i s t h e general c a s e , t h a t most o f the T h i r d World i s a t a s e r i o u s d i s a d v a n t a g e market (de Souza and P o r t e r , 197*0e x c e p t i o n but S t e r n and T i m s '  i t is evident in the world  The o i l producers a r e a major  (1976) a n a l y s i s  suggests t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r  producers o f o t h e r major primary commodities t o form s i m i l a r c a r t e l s i s very l i m i t e d .  The argument t h a t e x p o r t s a r e e s s e n t i a l t o p r o v i d e the f o r e i  c a p i t a l , equipment and ideas n e c e s s a r y 1962)  f o r "development"  (Cairncross,  i s undermined by the worsening terms o f t r a d e f o r most primary p r o -  ducers.  Yet t h i s very worsening o f terms o f t r a d e i n c r e a s e s t h e need f o r  a i d t o m a i n t a i n t h e b a l a n c e o f payments The p r i m a r y producers  (de N a v a r r e t e and G r i f f i n , 1972).  ( a g a i n , e x c l u d i n g t h e o i l producers)  a r e then caught  in a v i c i o u s c i r c l e — t h e y must e x p o r t t o repay loans and a c q u i r e goods and s e r v i c e s , y e t they must borrow t o o f f s e t the d e c r e a s i n g power o f t h e i r e x p o r t s .  Magdoff  purchasing  (1969) e s t i m a t e s the p e r c a p i t a e x t e r n a l  p u r c h a s i n g power o f e x p o r t s i n L a t i n America has been reduced t o about one t h i r d t h e 1928 l e v e l ! R i d k e r (1976) f i n d s t h e h i g h e r p r i c e s f o r p e t r o l e u m and food have e x c e r b a t e d the problem s i n c e 1972.  But t h e r e a r e o t h e r reasons as w e l l .  P r i m a r y p r o d u c t s , e s p e c i a l l y a g r i c u l t u r a l , have been s u b j e c t t o f l u c t u a t i o n in p r o d u c t i o n , t o o f t e n s t i f f c o m p e t i t i o n from o t h e r T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s , and t o u n c e r t a i n t y and i n s t a b i l i t y as demand f l u c t u a t e s o r drops w i t h synthetic substitutes.  And r a r e l y can they compete, i n p r i c e , w i t h t h e  imported secondary and t e r t i a r y goods and s e r v i c e s . shift  t o secondary and t e r t i a r y e x p o r t s  Yet t o argue f o r a  i s t o underestimate the d i f f i -  c u l t i e s o f b r e a k i n g i n t o the w o r l d market.  Many m u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s  p r o h i b i t t h e i r s u b s i d i a r i e s o r l i c e n c e e s from e x p o r t i n g p r o d u c t s t o a t h i r d c o u n t r y (Magdoff, 1969; Business Week, 1975).  Most c o u n t r i e s have  h i g h e r t a r i f f s on processed goods than on unprocessed,  reducing t h e  37 i n c e n t i v e f o r poor c o u n t r i e s t o process w i t h o u t these b a r r i e r s ,  products p r i o r to e x p o r t .  i t is often d i f f i c u l t  Even  for a f l e d g l i n g industry  to  compete a g a i n s t w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d m a r k e t i n g systems, w h i c h have not o n l y t h e product t o s e l l , but a l s o the means t o r e t a i n access If the concept o f comparative advantage kets,  to the market.  i s a p p l i e d to t h i s access  to mar-  i t may dampen the o p t i m i s m seen f o r even some r e s o u r c e r i c h T h i r d  World c o u n t r i e s . The r a t e o f growth o f w o r l d market demands may a l s o the r a t e o f growth f o r e x p o r t - o r i e n t e d a c t i v i t i e s . countries w i l l the growth  be a b l e t o s e l l  circumscribe  J u s t how many more  p l a s t i c d o l l s o r cocoa o r c a r s ?  Much o f  in Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong was due to a s h i f t o f a c t i v i t y  from Japan as Japan moved i n t o products w i t h h i g h e r  returns.  If  c o u n t r i e s are a b l e to move up the p r o d u c t i o n s c a l e , o t h e r poorer may b e n e f i t from t h a t s h i f t .  these countries  If wages i n c r e a s e too much t h e r e , o t h e r  c o u n t r i e s may e n t e r the market more c o m p e t i t i v e l y .  But the p o i n t  is t h i s —  most o f these p r o d u c t i o n s h i f t s , due t o changes in t e c h n o l o g y o r demand, originate  in the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , and they a r e , to the T h i r d  World, f o r t u i t o u s .  Much of the growth o f i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s  due to a s h i f t i n g and s h a r i n g o f e x i s t i n g markets.  This  then,  l i m i t s the p o t e n t i a l  f o r g l o b a l growth and ( i n the c o n t e x t o f the e x i s t i n g w o r l d market p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r widespread economic growth  in the T h i r d W o r l d .  to suggest demand i s f i x e d , but t h a t i t i s not l i k e l y to i n c r e a s e  system)  This  i n c r e a s e must be a n o t h e r ' s  is  fast  enough f o r many c o u n t r i e s to have s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s e d o u t p u t . s h o r t - t e r m t h e n , much o f o n e ' s  is  In the  loss.  In t h e l o n g - t e r m , t h i s s h a r i n g w i t h i n u l t i m a t e l i m i t s t o growth may be more c r i t i c a l .  Perhaps  not been d e f i n i t e l y d e t e r m i n e d .  the l i m i t s to g l o b a l economic growth have It  is nonetheless  does have a l i m i t e d s u p p l y o f non-renewable  c l e a r t h a t the w o r l d  resources  and a l i m i t e d  not  c a p a c i t y to produce renewable ones.  A l l the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d a f f l u e n t n a t i o n s  consume a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e share o f these r e s o u r c e s .  The U n i t e d S t a t e s ,  f o r example, consumes k2 p e r c e n t o f the w o r l d ' s aluminum consumption, percent o f i t s c o a l , 28 p e r c e n t o f i t s  i r o n , 63 p e r c e n t of i t s n a t u r a l  and 31 p e r c e n t o f i t s p e t r o l e u m (Meadows, 1972).  The U.S.,  by i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s t a n d a r d s ,  even over-consumes  40 percent more than i t g e n e r a t e s .  This  where the n a t u r a l resources  hk  raises  gas  under-populated  oxygen,  consuming  the very b a s i c q u e s t i o n o f  to support the i n d u s t r i a l growth o f the T h i r d  World are t o come from. There appear t o be, t h e n , numerous o b s t a c l e s t o s i g n i f i c a n t increases  in i n d u s t r i a l output f o r a l a r g e number o f c o u n t r i e s .  That a few  have been s u c c e s s f u l may be more of a b a r r i e r than model f o r o t h e r countries.  J u s t how i m p e n e t r a b l e these b a r r i e r s a r e , o f c o u r s e ,  on s e v e r a l f a c t o r s : the resources  r e q u i r e d , the demand f o r the p r o d u c t ,  the c o m p e t i t i o n f o r the market, the degree o f autonomy marketing.  depends  in p r o d u c t i o n and  From t h i s i t i s apparent t h a t a t l e a s t some o f the causes o f  the poor r e c o r d are beyond the c o n t r o l o f the T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s t h a t , unless barriers,  the i n t e r n a t i o n a l community takes s t e p s t o remove some o f  these  the r e c o r d may not be a b l e to improve s u f f i c i e n t l y .  There are a l s o the t r a d i t i o n a l " b a r r i e r s t o development".  Economic  growth may be expressed as a f u n c t i o n o f the i n p u t s to p r o d u c t i o n : labour, natural 'U')  and  resources,  capital,  t e c h n o l o g y and some composite ( o f t e n denoted  o f the s o c i a l environment  including values, organization,  systems and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , e t c .  legal  Any b a s i c t e x t on economic development  d i s c u s s e s t h e s e ; the p e r c e i v e d d e f i c i e n c i e s in the T h i r d World are g e n e r a l l y r e f e r r e d t o as " b a r r i e r s to development".  D i f f e r e n t authors  reflect their  own e x p e r i e n c e and p e r c e p t i o n s by p l a c i n g more o r l e s s emphasis  on  p a r t i c u l a r b a r r i e r s , but each i s undoubtedly a c u l p r i t in some c i r c u m s t a n c e s ,  39 but i s e q u a l l y u n l i k e l y t o be so i n a l l c i r c u m s t a n c e s . s h o r t supply  f o r much o f t h e T h i r d W o r l d - - i n  are based on c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n — a n d most growth endeavours,  ingredient f o r  but i t i s c e r t a i n l y not a s u f f i c i e n t  input.  o f the l a s t few decades has been  the poor r e c o r d i n s p i t e o f the c a p i t a l i n f u s i o n s . not produce the e l u s i v e s e l f - s u s t a i n i n g  East bears w i t n e s s  i s in  f a c t most d e f i n i t i o n s o f i t  i t i s a necessary  Indeed, one o f t h e major d i s a p p o i n t m e n t s  itself, will  Capita]  C a p i t a l , i n and o f growth.  The M i d d l e  t o t h a t , w h i l e some major a i d r e c i p i e n t s , l i k e  Indo-  n e s i a , a p p a r e n t l y have d i f f i c u l t y u t i l i z i n g a l l the c a p i t a l . S i m i l a r l y , an i l l i t e r a t e , or unhealthy  unskilled, undisciplined,  undernourished,  l a b o u r f o r c e may r e s t r i c t t h e n a t u r e , type and r a t e o f economic  a c t i v i t y and growth.  Adelman and M o r r i s  success o f K o r e a , S i n g a p o r e , of education.  and Taiwan t o t h e i r g e n e r a l l y h i g h e r  T h i s c a t e g o r y may a l s o  human r e s o u r c e — e n t r e p r e n e u r i a l or administrative a b i l i t y .  (1973) a t t r i b u t e much o f the levels  i n c l u d e o t h e r a t t r i b u t e s o f the  s k i l l s and m o t i v a t i o n , and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l  There i s a g e n e r a l  consensus t h a t much o f the  f a i l u r e o f t h e growth r e c o r d i s d i r e c t l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o d e f i c i e n c i e s i n t h i s necessary  s o f t - w a r e , t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c a p a -  b i l i t i e s o f many s o c i e t i e s . 1972;  Adelman and M o r r i s ,  (Waterston,  1969; de N a v a r r e t e and G r i f f i n ,  1973; and N i e h o f f , 1969).  Some c o u n t r i e s o f t h e Fourth World, the very p o o r e s t may have been hampered (and undoubtedly w i l l by an inadequate r e s o u r c e base.  countries,  c o n t i n u e t o be hampered)  Chad, M a l i and N i g e r ,  f o r example, a r e  not o n l y w i t h o u t marketable m i n e r a l s , t h e i r c l i m a t e , s o i l and w a t e r supplies  are inadequate f o r even s u b s i s t e n c e  spread m a l n u t r i t i o n and undernourishment.  a g r i c u l t u r e without wide-  F o r t u n a t e l y few c o u n t r i e s  have  such a b s o l u t e resource d e f i c i e n c i e s , b u t many o t h e r s w i t h l a r g e r popul a t i o n s , o v e r - t a x o r t a x t o the l i m i t , t h e i r r e s o u r c e b a s e ,  leaving  little  40 o r no s u r p l u s on which to b u i l d . These f a c t o r s — the p o p u l a t i o n e x p l o s i o n , the e x t e r n a l market c o n s t r a i n t s , the g l o b a l natural  resource l i m i t s , and i n t e r n a l d e f i c i e n c i e s o f  resources and human resources — t o v a r i o u s degrees  c o u n t r i e s , have f r u s t r a t e d the economic growth e f f o r t .  capital,  in d i f f e r e n t  W h i l e a few  c o u n t r i e s have overcome these o b s t a c l e s t o a c o n s i d e r a b l e degree, most have n o t . supply  Indeed,  the n a t u r e o f some o f the o b s t a c l e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y w o r l d  l i m i t s and the l i m i t e d and o n l y s l o w l y growing demand, suggests  t h a t most c o u n t r i e s w i l l  not be a b l e to overcome these c o n s t r a i n t s  and  t h a t the s u c c e s s o f one c o u n t r y reduces the chances o f success o f a n o t h e r . But success in terms o f economic growth i s not an a b s o l u t e  measure.  W i t h i n these g l o b a l supply and demand l i m i t s t h e r e i s p r o b a b l y a b l e room f o r i n c r e a s i n g economic o u t p u t .  consider-  And t h e r e i s d e f i n i t e l y the  p o s s i b i l i t y o f improving economic growth in the T h i r d World by r e d u c i n g some o f the present  inequities.  Given t h i s p o t e n t i a l , w i t h i n the above c o n s t r a i n t s , why has economic growth r e c o r d been so poor? p a r t were i n a p p r o p r i a t e . major b a r r i e r s .  The s t r a t e g i e s employed f o r the most  F i r s t , the s t r a t e g i e s f a i l e d to address  Second, they were not adapted to l o c a l  they f a i l e d to c o n s i d e r s o c i a l system  the  the  conditions.  Third,  responses.  Very b r i e f l y , t h i s s e t o f s t r a t e g i e s , taught and p r o f f e r e d u n t i l late  1  60 s 1  and e a r l y  ' 7 0 s , was based upon such concepts as 1  the  leading  s e c t o r s , e x p o r t - l e d growth, v i c i o u s c i r c l e s , t h r e s h o l d s , and c u m u l a t i v e c a u s a t i o n , growth p o l e s and growth c e n t r e s . Kahl's  I t i s s u c c i n c t l y embodied i n  (1968) d e c l a r a t i o n : " F o r the development ( s i c ) process to o c c u r , a s u r p l u s must be made a v a i l a b l e f o r c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t . F a c t o r i e s must be b u i l t , mines sunk, farm machinery and f e r t i l i z e r s bought. C i t i e s must be c r e a t e d as c e n t r e s o f i n d u s t r y and as sources o f j o b s to absorb the excess p o p u l a t i o n from r u r a l a r e a s . A l s o , highways, r a i l r o a d s , s c h o o l s , and h o s p i t a l s have to be c o n s t r u c t e d . "  As w i l l  be seen below, however, even some r u r a l development schemes  i n t o some of these  fell  pitfalls.  Where many o f the c o n s t r a i n t s and i n h i b i t i n g f a c t o r s a r e e x t e r n a l , investments  i n e x p o r t - o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n may b r i n g s m a l l  returns.  Many f l e d g l i n g i n d u s t r i e s even have d i f f i c u l t y competing in t h e i r domestic market.  Where p o p u l a t i o n growth exceeds the economic growth c a p a c i t y ,  d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l a r g e investments t o i n c r e a s e economic o u t p u t may be very i n e f f i c i e n t .  Nor i s the argument t h a t p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l i s o u t s i d e  the scope o f development p l a n n i n g o r even economic p l a n n i n g , j u s t i f i a b l e . An e n g i n e e r may not be a g e o l o g i s t , but he i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r his bridge w i l l  stand.  ensuring  If t h e b e a r i n g c a p a c i t y i s i n s u f f i c i e n t e i t h e r a  f i r m e r substratum must be found o r the design must be a l t e r e d .  Strategies  based on i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n f a i l e d at l e a s t in p a r t because they d i d not address the f a c t o r s which l i m i t e d the market p o t e n t i a l o f the p r o d u c t . Capital  i n f u s i o n s , w i t h o u t removing the s t r i n g s o r c o n d i t i o n s o f  servicing  ( p a r t i c u l a r l y in hard c u r r e n c y ) , may have c o n t r i b u t e d more t o i n d e b t e d ness and dependence than to growth. The f a i l u r e t o adapt s t r a t e g i e s  to the l o c a l c o n d i t i o n s  course r e l a t e d , i n s o f a r as some of the l o c a l  is of  c o n d i t i o n s may be b a r r i e r s to  growth (though b e a r i n g in mind at the same t i m e , they may be agents  of  development) Adelman (1961) went so f a r as to argue t h a t , because the society's  t e c h n o l o g y , c u l t u r e , o r g a n i z a t i o n and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n were  c u l t t o measure and t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n to o u t p u t was d i f f i c u l t  diffi-  to q u a n t i f y  they c o u l d not "even i n p r i n c i p i e . . . b e p l a c e d on a f o o t i n g e q u i v a l e n t t o t h a t o f the p h y s i c a l  inputs."  Even in p r i n c i p l e ?  T h i s approach has  proven  costly. Frankel  (1975) found the t e c h n o l o g i e s employed in water supply  treatment were o f t e n i n a p p r o p r i a t e , making c o s t s h i g h e r than n e c e s s a r y  and and  i n c r e a s i n g the i n c i d e n c e and d u r a t i o n o f maintenance problems.  Schumacher  (1973) argues c o n v i n c i n g l y t h a t the i n a p p r o p r l a t e n e s s o f much o f our nology goes f a r beyond w a t e r s u p p l y systems. as mentioned above, found the s t r a t e g i e s  Waterston  (1969) and o t h e r s ,  i n a p p r o p r i a t e f o r the type  perhaps even l e v e l ) o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l administrative capabilities.  (and and  They argue t h a t the s i n g l e major cause o f  the poor r e c o r d was the i n a b i l i t y to implement the s t r a t e g i e s . would c a u t i o n a g a i n s t  tech-  While I  such a g e n e r a l i z a t i o n , and draw a t t e n t i o n t o the  o t h e r f a c t o r s w h i c h , i n some c i r c u m s t a n c e s , might have been as c r i t i c a l , is n o n e t h e l e s s  c l e a r t h i s was a major problem.  N i e h o f f (1969) and Weiner  (1972) f i n d s u b s t a n t i a l l y the same reasons f o r f a i l u r e in v a r i o u s r u r a l development.  Very s i m p l y ,  it  types o f  i f the c u l t u r e o r the t e c h n o l o g i c a l ,  o r g a n i z a t i o n a l o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c a p a b i l i t i e s c o u l d not o r would not adapt t o the s t r a t e g i e s , and the s t r a t e g i e s were not adapted t o them, implement a t i o n would be f r a u g h t w i t h problems and f a i l u r e s would not be uncommon. Finally,  i n f a i l i n g t o c o n s i d e r the impacts o f economic growth on  the system, some h i g h and u n p r o d u c t i v e c o s t s were i n c u r r e d .  Many have  argued q u i t e e x p l i c i t l y f o r s o c i a l d i s r u p t i o n : "By d i s r u p t i n g the s t a t u s quo, they g i v e peoples and economies a chance t o s p u r t ahead under new management by a f r e s h e l i t e of ambitious s o c i a l c l i m b e r s . " (Erasmus); "Where c o n f l i c t i s a b s e n t , we can be c e r t a i n t h a t development does not o c c u r . " (Friedman, 1969); and u r b a n i z a t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l  to development" because  " i n the r e l a t i v e l y impersonal and fragmented s e t t i n g o f urban l i f e the a l l - e m b r a c i n g bonds o f t r a d i t i o n a l community systems are d i f f i c u l t t o m a i n t a i n " (Adelman and M o r r i s , 1973). O t h e r s s i m p l y e x t r a p o l a t e from the assumption t h a t t o " d e v e l o p " (and we a r e s t i l l  t a l k i n g i n terms o f economic g r o w t h ) , o t h e r p o o r e r  s o c i e t i e s must become " e x a c t l y l i k e the  rich,  43 " e x a c t l y l i k e the r i c h , e c o n o m i c a l l y and c u 1 t u r a l 1 y . . . ( r e q u i r i n g ) the t o t a l m o d e r n i z a t i o n and i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n o f the economy. In the p r o c e s s , the l o c a l c u l t u r e d i s s o l v e s " (Farmer, 1972; A l s o F o s t e r , 1973; and I n k e l e s and S m i t h , 1974). The developmental c o s t s o f the r e s u l t a n t d i s r u p t i o n may be e x h o r b i t a n t , but even the economic c o s t s can be p r o h i b i t i v e . J u l i u s Nyerere  El-Shakhs  (1974) and  (1974) f i n d the c o s t s o f m a i n t a i n i n g o r d e r and s t a b i l i t y  and p r o v i d i n g the bare minimum o f u t i l i t i e s and s o c i a l s e r v i c e s  in urban  areas v e r y h i g h , and a t the expense o f n a t i o n a l growth and development at the expense o f the r u r a l poor. individuals social  As s o c i a l d i s r u p t i o n worsens (as more  l e a v e t h e i r communities, as changing  v a l u e s and h a b i t s weaken  i n s t i t u t i o n s which p r o v i d e " e c o n o m i c " s o c i a l  o f the s i c k , aged, o r unemployed) increase proportionately.  and  the c o s t s  functions  like  care  t o the p u b l i c s e c t o r w i l l  Yet even now the s e r v i c e s o f f e r e d by the p u b l i c  s e c t o r are inadequate and "any meaningful  improvement...would  i n v o l v e an  a l l o c a t i o n o f resources which goes beyond the c a p a c i t y o f the economy o f most c o u n t r i e s "  (U.N.,  1974).  Growth s t r a t e g i e s designed to r a i s e the l e v e l o f the poor t o t h a t o f the r i c h a r e p r o b a b l y f u t i l e - - t h e g l o b a l them. less  l i m i t s to growth must  preclude  The growth r e c o r d was poor, however, even though those more o r f i x e d l i m i t s have not been reached.  T h i s was due in l a r g e p a r t to  an i n a p p r o p r i a t e a l l o c a t i o n o f the l i m i t e d resources were v a r i o u s  d i r e c t causes o f the poor r e c o r d : - - t h e e s t a b l i s h e d  o f the a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s  There position  in the w o r l d market; the i n e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n  o f resources among and w i t h i n c o u n t r i e s ; numerous  available.  s o c i a l and e n v i r o n m e n t a l  d i f f e r e n t p o t e n t i a l s f o r and  the p o p u l a t i o n e x p l o s i o n ;  and  d i f f e r e n c e s which g i v e d i f f e r e n t s o c i e t i e s  obstacles  to growth.  Had p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y  more resources been a l l o c a t e d t o r e c t i f y i n g t h e s e causes as they a p p l i e d in each s i t u a t i o n , the r e c o r d may have been s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e t t e r .  kk But economic growth must be p l a c e d in the c o n t e x t o f s o c i a l d e v e l o p ment.  For many s o c i e t i e s , p r o b a b l y f o r most, some economic growth w i l l  an important component o f development.  ( i t is q u i t e possible  be  development  in some o f the more a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s may r e q u i r e n e g a t i v e economic growth.)  There are p r o b a b l y no s o c i e t i e s  exclusively  (and perhaps not even l a r g e l y )  in which development w i l l  be  through economic growth.  The  f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n i n d i c a t e s some types o f economic a c t i v i t y have d e c r e a s e d , r a t h e r than i n c r e a s e d s o c i a l  3-2  performance.  Causes o f the Poor Development  Record  There a r e f o u r b a s i c reasons f o r the poor development r e c o r d . F i r s t , t h e r e are n a t u r a l s t r e s s e s which may s t r a i n the s o c i a l system and reduce i t s performance.  Second, the s o c i a l systems have been the t a r g e t  o r v i c t i m o f v a r i o u s e x t e r n a l i n f l u e n c e s which have s i m i l a r l y s t r a i n e d them and reduced performance.  T h i r d , many s o c i e t i e s have expended  f o r which they have r e c e i v e d l i t t l e unable t o , expend adequate r e s o u r c e s  resources  in r e t u r n and have f a i l e d t o , o r been t o enhance development.  F i n a l l y , some  s o c i e t i e s may have i n t e r n a l weaknesses t h a t have rendered them i n c a p a b l e o f making the n e c e s s a r y a d a p t a t i o n s  in response t o the v a r i o u s s t r e s s e s .  each area in which performance has not improved, each s o c i e t y i s  For  likely  to  have a d i f f e r e n t mix o f reasons o r the r e l a t i v e importance o f the causes wi11  vary. J u s t as p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e was a major f a c t o r in l i m i t i n g per c a p i t a  GNP growth, i t o u t s t r i p p e d the i n c r e a s e d food p r o d u c t i o n , so t h a t per c a p i t a food p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e d in most poor regions a n n u a l l y from 1962 tenure systems,  t o 1972.  by o n l y 0.2  percent  P o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s have a l s o s t r a i n e d  land  p a r t i c u l a r l y in the o v e r - p o p u l a t e d areas o f south A s i a .  T h i s p r e s s u r e on the land has  l i k e l y been an important f a c t o r in e n c o u r a g i n g  45 m i g r a t i o n to urban c e n t r e s , w h i c h in t u r n has had impacts on the s o c i a l system.  The d i f f e r e n c e s  and the d i f f e r e n c e s  in r a t e s o f p o p u l a t i o n growth d i s c u s s e d  in a v a i l a b l e resources  mean the s e r i o u s n e s s o f  growth as an i n h i b i t o r o f development v a r i e s c o n s i d e r a b l y . West A f r i c a and L a t i n America the resources much l a r g e r p o p u l a t i o n .  This  nor in the r e s o u r c e poor c o u n t r i e s o f the F o u r t h World.  rate of population  population  In p a r t s  of  are c a p a b l e o f s u s t a i n i n g  is not the case in India nor  be a safe g e n e r a l i z a t i o n , though,  above,  a  Bangladesh,  It would p r o b a b l y  t h a t in any T h i r d World c o u n t r y a lower  i n c r e a s e would i n c r e a s e the chances o f and r a t e o f  development. Important as t h a t p o i n t  i s , however,  i t ought not be a l l o w e d t o  overshadow  some o f the o t h e r causes o f underdevelopment.  negligible  increases  Despite  the  in per c a p i t a food p r o d u c t i o n , we have seen t h a t  p r o d u c t i o n has not been the major c u l p r i t i n f a i l i n g t o reduce m a l n u t r i t i o n . "It  is p a r a d o x i c a l t h a t p r o t e i n - c a l o r i e m a l n u t r i t i o n is widespread  in a  w o r l d t h a t a p p a r e n t l y produces more than enough p r o t e i n f o r each o f i n h a b i t a n t s " (U.N.,  197*0 .  more than enough p r o t e i n . development"  Not o n l y the w o r l d , but each r e g i o n  produces  " M a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i s the c e n t r a l f a c t i n under-  (de Souza and P o r t e r , 1974).  mankind, appears  its  China, with a quarter of a l l  to have e l i m i n a t e d s t a r v a t i o n and m a l n u t r i t i o n .  c o u n t r i e s have had comparable i n c r e a s e s  Other  i n p r o d u c t i o n , but the more  e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h i n China is p r o b a b l y the major f a c t o r in  its  success.  classes  The unequal  d i s t r i b u t i o n between d i f f e r e n t s o c i o - e c o n o m i c  accounts f o r the m a l n u t r i t i o n throughout adequate s u p p l i e s  (UN,  Unequal access  the T h i r d W o r l d , in the f a c e o f  1974). to r e s o u r c e s  a f f e c t s more than d i e t .  has found d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h o n e ' s income and p o s i t i o n  Strumpel  in l i f e  more c l o s e l y w i t h r e l a t i v e p o v e r t y than w i t h a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y .  (1976)  correlates Historically  46 the l e v e l s o f i n e q u i t y have dropped somewhat a f t e r t h e pronounced increases.  In the more a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s , the l e v e l appears  initial  t o have  s t a b i l i z e d , at a l e v e l w e l l below t h a t o f many T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s , and p a r t i c u l a r l y those e x p e r i e n c i n g t h e most r a p i d growth (Powers, Whether the i n e q u i t i e s w i l l point.  1975)-  decrease i n those c o u n t r i e s as w e l l  i s a moot  The p l a n n e r must ask t o what e x t e n t t h i s t r e n d i s n e c e s s a r y o r  desirable.  The comparison o f B u l g a r i a and Greece (Apel and S t r u m p e l , 1976)  suggests i t i s n e i t h e r n e c e s s a r y nor d e s i r a b l e , and the successes o f China and Cuba appear t o support t h a t .  I n e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f resources  i s the cause o f much o f the p o l i t i c a l o t h e r causes a r e a l s o  unrest  i n the T h i r d W o r l d ,  important ( E l - S h a k h s and Obudho,  though  1974; M a z r u i , 1970;  de Souza and P o r t e r , 1974). The d i s t i n c t i o n between cause and e f f e c t ,  i n what can amount t o  v i c i o u s c i r c l e s , i s d i f f i c u l t and perhaps m e a n i n g l e s s .  The p o l i t i c a l  unrest and i n s t a b i l i t y has hampered development e f f o r t s ( R o s s e r , 1972), and i s a l s o the r e s u l t o f inadequate development, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n urban areas.  The problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e r a p i d u r b a n i z a t i o n i n the T h i r d  W o r l d , the high degree o f primacy o f urban c e n t r e s and the i n a d e q u a c i e s o f i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l support a r e w e l l - k n o w n and w e l l documented 1969;  R o s s e r , 1972; E l - S h a k h s and Obudho,  1974, and o t h e r s ) .  burden t h i s p l a c e s on t h e c o u n t r y has a l r e a d y been d i s c u s s e d .  (Breese, The economic There i s  some e v i d e n c e i t a l s o l i m i t s development i n o t h e r a r e a s . Even i n the l a r g e l y u r b a n i z e d c o u n t r i e s t h e r e appear t o be h i g h psychological  c o s t s t o urban l i f e s t y l e s and, c o n v e r s e l y , many d e v e l o p -  mental a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e v i l l a g e community l i k e the s t a b i l i t y , o r d e r , and security  i t p r o v i d e s and the sense o f b e l o n g i n g and involvement i t  affords  (Almond, 1971; B u t t - F i n n , 1971 and B e r g e r , B e r g e r and K e l l n e r ,  1973)-  Where t h e c u l t u r e has not had time t o adapt t o t h i s major s h i f t o f  hi community, the i n d i v i d u a l  i s i n a quandary  t o r n between two c o n f l i c t i n g  s e t s o f values which demand i n c o m p a t i b l e b e h a v i o r a l 1972; G u t k i n d , 1970; M a z r u i , accept the c o n f l i c t as  1970).  i n e v i t a b l e (Erasmus, 1961; F o s t e r ,  1975), o t h e r s a r e more s e n s i t i v e  Grindal,  o r more pragmatic  1975).  (Grindal,  W h i l e many welcome t h i s change  1970; U l l r i c h , 1972)  responses  (Nyerere,  (Mair,  1969; U.N.  1973;  1969, and  and  Gutkind, 1972;  1974; World Bank,  The welcoming o f t h i s s o c i a l c o n f l i c t , in the absence o f any.  evidence that i t is necessary,  and in the presence o f reduced s o c i a l  performance, can o n l y be based on an u n j u s t i f i a b l e e t h n o c e n t r i c b i a s . The i n c r e a s e d i n c i d e n c e o f mental d i s o r d e r s c o n f l i c t s and c o n t r a d i c t i o n s  inherent  is a t t r i b u t a b l e to " t h e  in r a p i d s o c i a l change,  and the d i f f i c u l t i e s in a d a p t i n g to the urban s t y l e o f l i f e , the i n c r e a s e d pace and s t r e s s  of l i f e ,  growing p r o p o r t i o n o f o l d p e r s o n s " change  changing  (U.N.,  urbanization crowding,  s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s and a  1974).  The r a t e o f t h i s s o c i a l  in most o f the T h i r d World i s unprecedented in the h i s t o r y o f s o c i a l  evolution. If t h i s  r a p i d r a t e o f change  (of which u r b a n i z a t i o n  i s but a p a r t ,  i n c l u d i n g the emergence o f new e l i t e s , new v a l u e s and new s o c i a l ments which e x t e n d w e l l beyond the urban c e n t r e s ) d i s r u p t i v e and anti-deve1opmenta1 in t h i s a n a l y s i s  impacts, two q u e s t i o n s  o f the reasons f o r the poor development  what e x t e n t a r e these agents of change e x t e n t are they autonomous, Causation  does have  significant  must  be  record.  o r are they the r e s u l t o f o t h e r  In s p i t e o f  to i d e n t i f y and d i s c u s s some o f the  t h a t they may vary  to  Given  they a r e i n , i t  t h a t the c a u s a t i v e f a c t o r s would be u n i v e r s a l .  recognizing  First,  factors?  i s e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u l t t o prove in any dynamic system.  i t ought to be p o s s i b l e  asked  i n e v i t a b l e and second, t o what  the d i v e r s i t y o f s o c i a l systems and the environments doubtful  arrange-  causes,  in importance in d i f f e r e n t s o c i e t i e s .  is that,  P o p u l a t i o n growth i s perhaps  the one i n e v i t a b l e f a c t o r .  ( i t too  was t h e r e s u l t o f d e l i b e r a t e a c t i o n s , but i n s o f a r as few would the moral n e c e s s i t y o f r e t a i n i n g and improving programmes  challenge  t o reduce  m o r t a l i t y r a t e s , f o r p r a c t i c a l purposes,  it will  or unless  P o p u l a t i o n growth has i n t u r n put  b i r t h r a t e s drop comparably.)  p r e s s u r e on o t h e r resources encouraging  besides  m i g r a t i o n t o urban  remain a g i v e n  until  f o o d , which has c o n t r i b u t e d to p r e s s u r e s  centres.  Other f a c t o r s have c o n t r i b u t e d t o the r a p i d r a t e o f u r b a n i z a t i o n . The c o l o n i a l , e x p o r t o r i e n t e d , p r i m a r y c i t i e s have c o n t i n u e d t o s e r v e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and commercial  r o l e , c o n t i n u i n g t o grow and e x p l o i t a t the  expense o f n a t i o n a l development be a l i t t l e extreme.  Several  this  (de Souza and P o r t e r , 1974).  T h i s view may  c o u n t r i e s do have i n t e r m e d i a t e c i t i e s ,  like  Ghana, N i g e r i a and India and some have even e s t a b l i s h e d new n a t i o n a l administrative centres:  India, B r a z i l , N i g e r i a .  For the most p a r t ,  though,  s t r a t e g i e s o f i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , o f h e a l t h c a r e through h o s p i t a l s , o f h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n , o r o f expanding a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , have a l l c o n t r i b u t e d to t h e r a p i d u r b a n i z a t i o n .  Associated with this concentration of a c t i v i t y  is the domination o f the i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w . The v a l u e s are l a r g e l y urban.  t r a n s f e r r e d through the media, whether l o c a l o r f o r e i g n , The l i f e s t y l e s p o r t r a y e d , the a c t i v i t i e s d e s c r i b e d  (and p r o f f e r e d ) , have an urban c h a r a c t e r which i s found h i g h l y a t t r a c t i v e , although  the r e a l i t i e s may be markedly d i f f e r e n t ( G r i n d a l , 1972).  laden e d u c a t i o n a l programmes  t h a t t u r n o u t (unemployed)  Greek and L a t i n and Romantic E n g l i s h language,  Value-  c l e r k s , t h a t teach  l i t e r a t u r e i n s t e a d o f the l o c a l  a g r i c u l t u r e and t e c h n i g u e s o f problem a n a l y s i s  d i r e c t people  away from t h e i r communities, where they c o u l d c o n t r i b u t e , t o urban where they j o i n the unemployed o r under-employed.  areas  This value t r a n s f e r i s  g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t e d by the "myth o f underdevelopment".  The c o n t e n t i o n o f  this thesis  i s t h a t much o f the "underdevelopment" o f the T h i r d World  i s an e t h n o c e n t r i c b i a s .  That t h i s b i a s , t h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f s u p e r i o r i t y  and i n f e r i o r i t y , has been more o r l e s s s u c c e s s f u l l y t r a n s p o s e d t o many in the T h i r d World does not make the myth a r e a l i t y .  The e f f e c t o f t h i s myth  has been the widespread acceptance and e m u l a t i o n o f Western v a l u e s and l i f e s t y l e s , w i t h o u t an adequate assessment  o f the c o s t s  i n v o l v e d in such  a h o i i s t i c change. Another p o s s i b l e s e t o f causes f o r t h e poor development r e c o r d i s the i n h e r e n t i n a b i l i t y o f the e x i s t i n g s o c i a l system t o adapt and t o adapt to the v a r i o u s causes o f s t r e s s . be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h i s .  There a r e t h r e e c o n d i t i o n s which c o u l d  F i r s t , as Dubos (1966) s u g g e s t s , the r a t e o f  change may be beyond human a d a p t i v e c a p a c i t i e s .  If t h i s  i s t r u e in the  i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d , where t e c h n o l o g i c a l change i s so r a p i d , i t i s h a r d l y l i k e l y t o be l e s s t r u e in s o c i e t i e s in which t h e r a t e o f s o c i a l change  i s unprecedented.  Perhaps no s o c i e t y c o u l d handle t h e amount o f  stress  imposed by the v a r i o u s  factors.  The s o c i a l system may i n c l u d e s i g n i f i c a n t a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t a l components.  These may be c u l t u r a l a t t r i b u t e s such as a c a s t e - s y s t e m o r  an e l i t e w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t i n t h e s t a t u s guo.  Brecher  (1971)  suggests I n d i a has such an e l i t e , and i t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t much o f f e u d a l L a t i n America and s o u t h e r n A f r i c a does as w e l l .  Where t h e e l i t e has  s u f f i c i e n t power t o block development e f f o r t s , and uses t h a t power to m a i n t a i n i t s p r i v i l e g e d p o s i t i o n , development  is u n l i k e l y to occur.  However, even where the r a t e o f change i s not beyond man's a d a p t i v e c a p a c i t y and where t h e s o c i a l system i s not h e l d back by a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t components,  i t may s t i l l  p o s i t i v e l y to stress.  be unable t o marshal 1 i t s resources  t o respond  Our knowledge o f s o c i a l system b e h a v i o r and o u r  a b i l i t y t o e n g i n e e r s o c i a l systems  i s q u i t e l i m i t e d — w e do not understand  the s o c i a l  learning process.  This  f a c t , combined w i t h t h e common  defici-  encies  i n s o f t - w a r e d i s c u s s e d above, can g r e a t l y l i m i t the c a p a c i t y o f a  social  system t o respond t o change and t o d e v e l o p . Finally,  i t i s suggested a major cause o f the poor development  r e c o r d has been t h e p a u c i t y o f resources ment e f f o r t s .  t h a t have been a l l o c a t e d t o d e v e l o p -  No s o c i e t y has u n l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s and much o f the T h i r d  World has severe resource c o n s t r a i n t s .  Where t h e s e resources have been  a l l o c a t e d t o i n d u s t r i a l growth o r t o a t t e m p t i n g t o r e c i t f y some o f the problems a r i s i n g from " e x p l o d i n g c i t i e s i n n o n - e x p l o d i n g  economies"  (de Souza and P o r t e r , 1974), t h e r e have been inadequate resources a b l e t o d e v e l o p , i n i t i a t e and support development programmes. a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s , o n l y f o u r spent social  avail-  Of t h e more  l e s s than 10 percent o f t h e GNP on  s e c u r i t y i n 1970; Japan (5-7 p e r c e n t ) , A u s t r a l i a (8.2 p e r c e n t ) ,  Iceland  (9.0 p e r c e n t ) and the U n i t e d S t a t e s  15 t o 20 percent t o s o c i a l s e c u r i t y . World l i s t e d ,  Israel  (9.7 p e r c e n t ) .  Most a l l o c a t e d  Of the few c o u n t r i e s from the T h i r d  spent 9-7 p e r c e n t o f i t s GNP on s o c i a l s e c u r i t y but  the r e s t were a l l below 5 p e r c e n t , most spending about 3 p e r c e n t . small  This  investment and the l a c k o f adequate a d m i n i s t r a t i v e i n f r a s t r u c t u r e  make " t h e e a r l y p r o v i s i o n o f cash b e n e f i t s t o the r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r c o n t i n g e n c i e s such as d i s a b i l i t y , o l d age, o r the death o f the breadwinner u n l i k e l y " (U.N.,  1974).  The absence o f adequate s o c i a l s e c u r i t y f o r such  c o n t i n g e n c i e s was the major focus o f concern and apprehension  i n Greece  and l a r g e l y accounted f o r the d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f s a t i s f a c t i o n between Greece and B u l g a r i a  (where adequate p r o v i s i o n does e x i s t )  (Apel and  S t r u m p e l , 1976). The inadequate o r g a n i z a t i o n a l , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and problem s o l v i n g c a p a c i t y o f some o f these s o c i e t i e s has been blamed f o r much o f the f a i l u r e o f the economic growth r e c o r d .  I t has a l s o l i k e l y been a  c o n t r i b u t o r t o the poor development ity will  The improvement o f t h i s  depend to a c o n s i d e r a b l e degree on investment  e d u c a t i o n a l programmes. o n l y 3-2  record.  in appropriate  Yet the market economies o f the T h i r d World  percent o f t h e i r GNP on e d u c a t i o n  o f about 3 p e r c e n t a y e a r s i n c e 1960. c o u n t r i e s spent 5-4  capac-  in 1970,  i n c r e a s i n g an  spent  average  In comparison, the more a f f l u e n t  p e r c e n t o f t h e i r GNP on e d u c a t i o n and had  i t an average of almost 5 p e r c e n t a year s i n c e 1960  (U.N.,  increased  197*0.  Rural  development and b i r t h c o n t r o l need more a t t e n t i o n and more r e s o u r c e s , the heavy  investments  in o t h e r s e c t o r s ,  the m i l i t a r y takes s u b s t a n t i a l  p a r t i c u l a r l y economic growth  proportions  inadequate p r i o r i t y .  developmental concerns  In the l a s t 5 o r 6 years  r e c e i v e d i n c r e a s i n g a t t e n t i o n and s u p p o r t .  development,  to a secondary  r u r a l development  If development  has  identifying  and r e c t i f y i n g these o t h e r problems, d e f i c i e n c i e s o r sources o f i s e v i d e n t , and e x t r e m e l y important to r e c o g n i z e , t h a t  l i s t i n g o f causes i s  and  is to occur,  comparable a t t e n t i o n and support must be given t o programmes  It  (though  in some c o u n t r i e s ) , and the  p r e o c c u p a t i o n w i t h economic growth as an instrument o f s o c i a l have r e l e g a t e d these fundamental  but  stress. this  l a r g e l y s p e c u l a t i v e and t h a t t h e r e are some n o t a b l e  e x c e p t i o n s t o t h i s general  description.  China i s the most  outstanding  example o f a T h i r d World c o u n t r y t h a t has managed t o overcome most o f these b a r r i e r s . countries  Whether a s o c i a l  i s q u e s t i o n a b l e , though  i t may w e l l be.  r e v o l u t i o n i s as n e c e s s a r y in some,  in o t h e r  l i k e H a i t i or southern  In any c a s e , China has s i g n i f i c a n t l y reduced i t s  Africa, birth  r a t e , v i r t u a l l y e x c l u d e d exogenous i n f l u e n c e s , removed an a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t a l e l i t e and, perhaps most  i m p o r t a n t l y , expended c o n s i d e r a b l e  e d u c a t i o n and o r g a n i z a t i o n .  It appears  resources  t h i s more b a l a n c e d approach  development has not d e t r a c t e d from t h e economic growth, but made i t possible.  in to  I am not s u g g e s t i n g , however, be e m u l a t e d .  It would p r o b a b l y be i n a p p r o p r i a t e  p o i n t being made is t h i s :  in development  must a n a l y s e  the  r e c o r d o f t h e i r s o c i e t y , d e t e r m i n i n g the c o n t r i b u t i o n o f the here i n the c o n t e x t o f t h a t s o c i e t y .  China s i m p l y u n d e r l i n e s  strategy,  resource  focussing  cause f o r o p t i m i s m . of  strategies?  The  investment  has produced n e i t h e r much economic growth nor much  factors discussed  to  i n programmes  improvement, at the expense o f  The p l a n n e r s and the d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s  the n a t u r a l  is  in many s o c i e t i e s .  the investment and e x p e n d i t u r e  o f i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and urban  ment.  t h a t the Chinese e x p e r i e n c e  develop-  development various  The case o f  the f a c t t h a t few o f the causes, except  l i m i t a t i o n s , are u n a l t e r a b l e and t h a t an  perhaps  appropriate  on the major d e f i c i e n c i e s and i t s c a u s e s , may be So what  is  involved  in f i n d i n g an a p p r o p r i a t e  set  53 CHAPTER k  DEFINING THE PROBLEM OF PLANNING FOR DEVELOPMENT  For a v a r i e t y o f reasons,  t h e n , development s t r a t e g i e s p r e d i c a t e d  on economic growth have f a i l e d t o produce e i t h e r s a t i s f a c t o r y economic growth o r d e v e l o p m e n t — i n d e e d , in many c i r c u m s t a n c e s the s t r a t e g i e s t o have c o n t r i b u t e d t o a d e c r e a s e i n s o c i a l performance.  I f these  appear strategies  have been found w a n t i n g , and i f t h e r e remain developmental problems, i s c l e a r new s t r a t e g i e s must be found. must focus on t h r e e b a s i c 4.1  it  T h i s s e a r c h f o r new s t r a t e g i e s  problems.  I d e n t i f y i n g Performance D e f i c i e n c i e s S o c i a l performance and development a r e s u b j e c t i v e .  must be c u l t u r a l l y r e l a t i v e and c u l t u r a l l y d e f i n e d .  They a r e , and  The a n a l y s i s o f the  development r e c o r d in the p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r i s based on a g r o s s d e s c r i p t i o n o f the n a t u r e o f development, u s i n g the types o f c r i t e r i a t h a t are  likely  t o be u n i v e r s a l l y r e l e v a n t but which may be weighed d i f f e r e n t l y by d i f f e r e n t cultures.  The f i r s t step in the search f o r a s t r a t e g y must be the  f i c a t i o n o f the problems  identi-  in terms o f the needs and a s p i r a t i o n s o f the mem-  bers o f the s o c i e t y . High i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e s , the p r e v a l e n c e o f p r e v e n t a b l e and m a l n u t r i t i o n , e i t h e r p r e s e n t o r a n t i c i p a t e d i n the f a c e o f p o p u l a t i o n s are s e r i o u s  diseases  growing  problems f a c i n g much o f the T h i r d W o r l d .  However,  d i f f e r e n c e s between c o u n t r i e s are g r e a t on each of these and t h e r e are other candidates f o r a t t e n t i o n .  Incomes are g e n e r a l l y low, w i t h 650  m i l l i o n people in " a b s o l u t e p o v e r t y " , e a r n i n g  l e s s than $50 per y e a r ;  a d u l t l i t e r a c y r a t e s a r e a l s o low.  unrest or f a c t i o n a l i s m or  Political  crime may be s i g n i f i c a n t b a r r i e r s t o development which the development p l a n n e r and the d e c i s i o n - m a k e r must be prepared t o a d d r e s s .  These a r e but  examples t o which numerous o t h e r i n d i c a t o r s o f s o c i a l performance c o u l d  c o n c e i v a b l y be added.  They are i n t r o d u c e d here merely to i n d i c a t e the  range o f developmental problems,  to suggest p e r c e p t i o n s o f one c u l t u r e may  not a p p l y in another and t h a t p e r c e p t i o n s based on an aggregated  world  view may be u n r e a l i s t i c i n any p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n . Where p h y s i c a l  d e f i c i e n c y needs are not b e i n g met some p r i o r i t y must  presumably be g i v e n to t h e s e .  But even t h a t is not a s i m p l e c a s e .  At  what p o i n t  l e s s o f a problem t h a n , f o r example,  infant  i s undernourishment  m o r t a l i t y from o t h e r causes? d e f i c i e n c y needs.  There a r e ,  in a d d i t i o n , the  psychological  Where s e l f - e s t e e m and s t a t u s are low, f o r example,  some m i n o r i t y groups (or even oppressed m a j o r i t i e s ) , i s t h i s developmental problem than some undernourishment? need f o r " p o s i t i v e e f f e c t " ? members o f the s o c i e t y perceptions resources  less of a  How important  is  the  These guest ions can o n l y be answered by the  in q u e s t i o n .  To d e v e l o p s t r a t e g i e s w i t h o u t t h e i r  i n mind i s to run the s e r i o u s  r i s k o f m i s a 1 l o c a t i n g the  limited  f o r development, one o f the f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the poor  development k.2  in  record to date.  The Problem o f Change The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f problems d i s c u s s e d  in a s t a t i c s t a t e .  S o c i a l systems,  though not development,  is  above deal t w i t h performance  however, are dynamic systems.  i n e v i t a b l e , though the r a t e and d i r e c t i o n o f  change may vary c o n s i d e r a b l y between s o c i e t i e s and over t i m e . argued, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t even in the absence o f s e r i o u s d e f i c i e n c i e s , the development p l a n n e r has an onerous t h e developmental problems.  Change,  The development p l a n n e r s  It may be  performance  task  in i d e n t i f y i n g  r o l e in t h i s  c a p a c i t y i s t o r e g u l a t e , as f a r as p o s s i b l e both the r a t e o f change  that  i n d i v i d u a l s and t h e i r s o c i a l system may r e a c t and adapt w i t h o u t l o s s o f performance, and the d i r e c t i o n o f change,  t h a t i t i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the  55 s o c i e t a l o b j e c t i v e s and i s ,  in f a c t , developmental.  I suggest,  though  o n l y t h e performance e v a l u a t i o n recommended above c o u l d p r o v e , t h a t the development o f some s o c i e t i e s may f i t more e a s i l y i n t h i s ing'  c a t e g o r y than in the ' p r o b l e m s o l v i n g ' ,  though  'problem avoid-  i t must be  no s o c i e t y i s l i k e l y t o f i t w h o l l y in one o r the o t h e r .  stressed  Ghana (and some  o f the o t h e r well-endowed West A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s ) , Cuba, China and v e r y l i k e l y s e v e r a l o t h e r c o u n t r i e s may have more cause t o worry about than about present problems.  change  S o c i a l performance, as we have seen,  is a  very complex aggregate which depends on the e q u a l l y complex i n t e r a c t i o n s o f the s o c i a l system t h a t have e v o l v e d o v e r long p e r i o d s . t h e r e f o r e , that j u s t as t h e v a s t m a j o r i t y o f mutations to be h a r m f u l , most s o c i e t a l change i s effects.  Not a l l change  It  is probable,  in organisms tend  l i k e l y to have i n i t i a l  i s u n d e s i r a b l e , and in any c a s e ,  negative  i t is i n e v i t a b l e ,  but the r a t e and d i r e c t i o n may not be beyond some degree o f c o n t r o l . The types o f problems one might a n t i c i p a t e are d e f i c i e n c i e s s i m i l a r t o those d i s c u s s e d above.  C l e a r l y , even where m a l n u t r i t i o n i s not p r e s e n t l y  a problem, i t may, i n the f a c e o f growing p o p u l a t i o n s , become a problem. Population pressures  may a l s o c r e a t e land tenure and land use c o n f l i c t s .  There may be grounds f o r concern about a weakening sense o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y and i t s a t t e n d a n t problems.  familial  A s h i f t from or a l t e r e d  s t a t u s o f t r a d i t i o n a l o c c u p a t i o n s and l i f e s t y l e s may not be u n i v e r s a l l y welcomed.  In s h o r t , we cannot assume t h a t being d i f f e r e n t from us  is a  problem, o r t h a t becoming more W e s t e r n i z e d i s not a problem. The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f developmental problems must i n c l u d e both the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g performance d e f i c i e n c i e s and the assessment o f the impact o f a n t i c i p a t e d change on s o c i a l performance.  Each s o c i e t y  is  l i k e l y t o have a mix o f t h e s e d e f i c i e n c i e s and a n t i c i p a t e d problems, y e t have l i m i t e d resources w i t h which to address  them.  The p r i o r i t i e s , l i k e  the e v a l u a t i o n o f performance, can o n l y be e s t a b l i s h e d by the members o f each s o c i e t y .  4.3  I d e n t i f y i n g the Causes o f D e f i c i e n c i e s Having  i d e n t i f i e d o r a n t i c i p a t e d the performance d e f i c i e n c i e s o f  c o n c e r n , the causes must be i d e n t i f i e d .  Again, this  is s e l f - e v i d e n t , yet  too f r e q u e n t l y a problem i s s i m p l y assumed t o have a p a r t i c u l a r cause. Malnutrition  i s a case in p o i n t .  For c o u n t r i e s w i t h poor s o i l ,  poor  c l i m a t e o r a p o p u l a t i o n exceeding the l a n d ' s c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y , l i k e o r Hong Kong, more food i s needed.  T h i s can o n l y come from o u t s i d e  Chad sources.  T h i s problem i s d i f f e r e n t from the more g e n e r a l case o f a c o u n t r y which  is  u n d e r u t i 1 i z i n g i t s r e s o u r c e s , which i s c a p a b l e o f p r o d u c i n g more f o o d . Most T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s f i t t h i s c a t e g o r y .  In a d d i t i o n , however, we  have found t h a t most m a l n u t r i t i o n , in every r e g i o n , inadequate s u p p l y but o f unequal d i s t r i b u t i o n . is short,  i s not the r e s u l t o f  And even where s u p p l y  i s the problem one o f p r o d u c t i o n , p r o c e s s i n g o r s t o r a g e ?  Is  the  poor d i s t r i b u t i o n due t o s p o i l a g e , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and m a r k e t i n g problems o r to s o c i a l c l a s s  inequalities?  Is p o p u l a t i o n growing f a s t e r than  p r o d u c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n systems can p r o v i d e f o r ? fall  Do these systems  behind because o f poor c r o p s , poor t e c h n i q u e s , poor e q u i p m e n t —  inadequate hardware, o r because o f o r g a n i z a t i o n a l , a d m i n i s t r a t i v e o r cultural  f a c t o r s — t h e software necessary  f o r problem s o l v i n g  and  implementation? Where domestic r e s o u r c e s cannot s a t i s f y the s o c i e t a l needs, what r e s t r i c t s access t o w o r l d s u p p l i e s ?  World markets t h a t r e q u i r e hard  c u r r e n c y , t h a t can o n l y be earned through u n f a v o r a b l e t r a d i n g b a r r i e r s , have not been conducive t o T h i r d World development.  Or has the s o c i e t y  been unable t o t a k e advantage o f m a r k e t a b l e r e s o u r c e s ?  The w o r l d market  57 system may be l a r g e l y o u t s i d e the c o n t r o l o f any one s o c i e t y ; the e x p l o i t a t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e resources  is  l a r g e l y w i t h i n i t s c o n t r o l , as  is  p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l which may be the cause o f v a r i o u s problems. i n f l u e n c e s may be h a r d e r t o c a t e g o r i z e . introduction of a l i e n values, e x i s t i n g system.  The s t r e s s e s  (presumably) Other  caused by the  l i f e s t y l e s o r o c c u p a t i o n s may undermine the  But where, u l t i m a t e l y , do these i n f l u e n c e s come from,  how are they i n t r o d u c e d i n t o the s o c i e t y ?  Some may be s p i n - o f f s  of  s p e c i f i c developmental s t r a t e g i e s : b y - p r o d u c t s of a v a l u e - l a d e n e d u c a t i o n a l programme o r o f an i n d u s t r i a l e n t e r p r i s e , f o r example.  Others may be media  borne--images  in magazines, newspapers,  f i l m o r on r a d i o can have  consider-  a b l e impact.  E l i t e s m i m i c i n g o t h e r c u l t u r e s may themselves be mimicked.  The problems are numerous and v a r i e d , the causes are c e r t a i n l y no l e s s  so.  k.k  Designing Appropriate The s t r a t e g y ,  Strategies  to be s u c c e s s f u l , must be a p p r o p r i a t e to both the  problem and the cause ( o r causes) o f the problem.  Chad and M a l i  will  p r o b a b l y have to look to the i n t e r n a t i o n a l community f o r a s s i s t a n c e provision of food.  i n the  C o u n t r i e s depending on e x p o r t s may have to look t o the  i n t e r n a t i o n a l community f o r improved terms o f t r a d e . involve high y i e l d crops,  I n t e n s i f i c a t i o n may  i r r i g a t i o n and f e r t i l i z e r s ; p r o c e s s i n g ,  and d i s t r i b u t i o n may have to improve.  Where a growing p o p u l a t i o n  storage, is  p u t t i n g an e x c e s s i v e demand on the p r o d u c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n systems, a p p r o p r i a t e s t r a t e g y might i n c l u d e c o n s i d e r a b l e investment i n p o p u l a t i o n control.  It may be found an i n d i r e c t cause may a f f e c t s e v e r a l  Problem s o l v i n g t e c h n i q u e s and o r g a n i z a t i o n may be a weakness  areas. which  f r u s t r a t e s attempts t o i n c r e a s e p r o d u c t i o n , e x p e d i t e d i s t r i b u t i o n and address o t h e r areas o f s o c i a l performance.  Educational  programmes  an  58 designed t o d e v e l o p such a b i l i t i e s may prove a v a l u a b l e Where s t r e s s e s  investment.  t o the system o r i g i n a t e e x t e r n a l l y , i t may be  n e c e s s a r y t o s c r e e n them more c a r e f u l l y .  T h i s may be f e a s i b l e p a r t i c u -  l a r l y f o r s p e c i f i c development p r o j e c t s o r p r i v a t e e n t e r p r i s e s . stresses  Where the  e n t e r more d i f f u s e l y , such as through the media, i t may be more  a p p r o p r i a t e to u t i l i z e  resources  where domestic programmes  to c o u n t e r such  influences.  are found to produce such s t r e s s e s ,  to be reviewed c r i t i c a l l y .  Obviously they ought  The mass media has c o n s i d e r a b l e s o c i a l i z i n g  p o t e n t i a l , a f a c t e x p l o i t e d more f o r p r i v a t e g a i n than p u b l i c good in most c o u n t r i e s .  Where s o c i a l performance i s d e f i c i e n t i n  p s y c h o l o g i c a l needs, o r where the system i s under s t r e s s  satisfying from c o n f l i c t i n g  v a l u e s , p u b l i c use o f the mass media may be a v a l u a b l e , e f f i c i e n t , necessary  and  strategy.  With the range o f problems and the causes o f these problems  it  s h o u l d be apparent t h a t the combinations f o r which s t r a t e g i e s must be designed are c o n s i d e r a b l e .  But  i t i s not even p o s s i b l e to c l a i m a s i n g l e  problem w i t h a s i n g l e cause has a s i n g l e , o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n . i t s e l f must be seen in the c o n t e x t o f the s o c i a l  The s t r a t e g y  system.  I f t h e r e i s one p o i n t t o s t r e s s , which has too f r e q u e n t l y been ignored,  i t i s t h a t the s t r a t e g i e s , the s o l u t i o n s , a r e themselves  o f change, causes o f s t r e s s .  T h e i r a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s , t h e n , depends on  t h e i r e f f i c i e n c y in s o l v i n g the t a r g e t problems the problems and t h e i r causes)  agents  ( t h e i r a p p l i c a b i l i t y to  and, as i m p o r t a n t l y , t h e i r tendency t o  promote development, or at l e a s t m i n i m i z e n e g a t i v e  change.  59 CHAPTER 5  TOWARD A STRATEGY FOR DEVELOPMENT  The t a s k ,  t h e r e f o r e , Is  t o e s t a b l i s h a developmental process  in  a c c o r d w i t h the p o i n t s t h a t have been r a i s e d above: i)  I t must s t r i v e t o enhance  i n d i v i d u a l w e l f a r e and s o c i a l  performance though at p r e s e n t our knowledge o f the u n i v e r s a l i t y o f human needs and our measures o f s o c i a l are g r o s s l y ii)  performance  inadequate,  It must begin w i t h and work w i t h the l o c a l  environment—the  n a t u r a l and e s p e c i a l l y the human, f o r any undue d i s r u p t i o n  is  c o s t l y and a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t a l . iii)  The process to feel  i t s e l f ought t o be d e v e l o p m e n t a l .  i n v o l v e d in shaping  People ought  t h e i r f u t u r e and t h e i r f u t u r e  ought t o take shape at a pace at which they and t h e i r s o c i e t i e s can a d a p t , iv)  It must i n c l u d e endeavours  t o e l i m i n a t e the exogenous  impediments to development. Such a process must  involve research, e v a l u a t i o n , p o l i c y formation  and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n on two f r o n t s .  5.1  The Role o f the I n t e r n a t i o n a l  Community  While t h e r e may be some m e r i t in many c o u n t r i e s  increasing  l e v e l o f s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y , i t i s p r o b a b l y d e s i r a b l e and, in any necessary,  to r e c o g n i z e the interdependence o f n a t i o n s .  s i m p l y do not have the resources countries  to support  case,  Many c o u n t r i e s  their population.  r e q u i r e t h e r e s o u r c e s o r markets o f o t h e r s  their  Most  t o m a i n t a i n or  i n c r e a s e t h e i r economic o u t p u t , and f o r much of the T h i r d World, an increase  in economic output c o u l d p r o b a b l y be an important  to development.  contributor  A s i n g l e c o u n t r y might be a b l e to undertake the  research  60 to d e t e r m i n e how, why and t o what e x t e n t v a r i o u s e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s  impede  its  its  development, o r the amount o f a s s i s t a n c e  development.  i t would r e q u i r e f o r  But i t c o u l d n o t , u n i l a t e r a l l y , f o r m u l a t e and implement  p o l i c i e s d e r i v e d from t h a t .  As much o f the success o f the development  e f f o r t wi11 depend on such p o l i c i e s , i t i s community address  these i s s u e s .  J u s t as  i m p e r a t i v e t h a t the i n t e r n a t i o n a l  i t would be presumptuous  a p r i o r i , what a p a r t i c u l a r s o c i e t y ought t o do t o d e v e l o p ,  to d e c l a r e ,  precisely  what the i n t e r n a t i o n a l community ought to do must be based on s u f f i c i e n t research t o i d e n t i f y more c l e a r l y the n a t u r e o f the v a r i o u s the ways the problems can be r e d r e s s e d . must be f o c u s s e d on the f o l l o w i n g i)  Providing  resources  to be l i t t l e  and  However, p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n  issues: f o r the Fourth W o r l d .  There  appears  these e x t r e m e l y poor and resource d e f i c i e n t  c o u n t r i e s can do t o markedly  improve t h e i r own s i t u a t i o n .  ( R i d k e r , e t . a l . , 1976), yet t h e i r s i t u a t i o n o f  poverty,  m a l n u t r i t i o n and impending s t a r v a t i o n f o r many,  is a global  concern and ii)  problems  responsibility,  Redistributing  r e s o u r c e s , markets and economic a c t i v i t y  to t h e T h i r d W o r l d . consumption  This w i l l  probably  decreasing  in the a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s , " f r e e i n g " a i d  r e c i p i e n t s and l i c e n c e e s , e n c o u r a g i n g , couraging  involve  the p r o d u c t i o n , p r o c e s s i n g  r a t h e r than  dis-  and m a r k e t i n g o f T h i r d  World commodities, w i t h terms o f t r a d e designed t o augment the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n .  The " f r e e i n g " o f a i d r e c i p i e n t s may  require a s h i f t to " n o - s t r i n g s " in any c u r r e n c y .  multi-lateral aid,  As " s o f t " c u r r e n c i e s accumulate  repayable in the  more a f f l u e n t c o u n t r i e s , products o f the T h i r d World may become more a t t r a c t i v e , i n t u r n s t i m u l a t i n g growth t h e r e .  iii)  Withdrawal o f support f o r t y r a n n i e s o r e l i t e s b l o c k i n g development.  Only the members o f the s o c i e t y can determine  whether the e l i t e p r e v e n t s development, but an e n t r e n c h e d e l i t e , w i t h e x t e r n a l support  in p a r t i c u l a r may be very  diffi-  cult to dislodge, iv)  R e f r a i n i n g from the i m p o s i t i o n o f v i e w s , v a l u e s , and s t r a t e gies.  The i n t e r n a t i o n a l community, and e s p e c i a l l y those  i n v o l v e d in development e f f o r t s , must s t r i v e t o i n c r e a s e our u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f the v a l u e and l e g i t i m a c y o f d i v e r s e s o c i a l systems and must encourage s o c i e t i e s to d e f i n e and pursue t h e i r own o b j e c t i v e s , v) P r o v i d i n g a s s i s t a n c e , where p o s s i b l e and where needed, t o h e l p the members o f s o c i e t y a c h i e v e the o b j e c t i v e s they have defined. I am not s u g g e s t i n g the w o r l d ' s w e a l t h c o u l d be (nor should be) redistributed overnight.  The o p t i m a l degree of r e d i s t r i b u t i o n and r a t e  o f r e d i s t r i b u t i o n may never be d e t e r m i n e d .  The p o i n t i s , a s h i f t  p r o b a b l y n e c e s s a r y t o enable many s o c i e t i e s t o d e v e l o p .  Similarly,  would be n a i v e t o expect u b i q u i t o u s v a l u e s c o u l d be c o n t a i n e d . i t s h o u l d be p o s s i b l e , and i t may be n e c e s s a r y , r a t h e r than a t o t a l  change.  remedies  However,  to again e f f e c t a s h i f t  developed as they are c u r r e n t l y being  Encouraging and s u p p o r t i n g the s e a r c h  l o c a l o b j e c t i v e s would f a c i l i t a t e the most c r i t i c a l  it  Dropping such terms as m o d e r n i z a t i o n ,  developed and un- (or under-) used would be but a s t a r t .  is  this shift.  for  Whether these i s s u e s  are  o r not i s not the important p o i n t ; whether the types o f  I have a l l u d e d t o are r e l e v a n t or w o r k a b l e matters  less.  The  important p o i n t i s t h a t development o f the T h i r d World depends upon the response o f the i n t e r n a t i o n a l community.  The most a p p r o p r i a t e  response  62 will  require a greater understanding  than I can b r i n g to the s u b j e c t .  It  will  a l s o r e q u i r e an unprecedented l e v e l o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l d e t e r m i n a t i o n  and c o - o p e r a t i o n . 5.2  The Role o f the Development  Planner  The second f r o n t on which underdevelopment domestic f r o n t .  must be fought  T h i s s e c t i o n might as a p p r o p r i a t e l y be l a b e l l e d  i s the 'The  role of i n t e r n a l s t r a t e g i e s ' .  Chapter k o u t l i n e s the t a s k s  ment p l a n n i n g must u n d e r t a k e .  It must f i r s t i d e n t i f y the performance  deficiencies.  As  I have s t r e s s e d  throughout  that develop-  t h i s paper, the e v a l u a t i o n  o f s o c i a l performance and the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f i t s d e f i c i e n c i e s can o n l y be done l e g i t i m a t e l y by the members o f the s o c i e t y . in t h i s  i s t o ensure d i v e r s e  The p l a n n e r ' s  role  i n t e r e s t s w i t h i n the s o c i e t y have the  o p p o r t u n i t y t o c o n t r i b u t e to the e v a l u a t i o n and the f o r m u l a t i o n o f s o c i a l o b j e c t i ves. In a n t i c i p a t i n g the e f f e c t s o f change, the p l a n n e r can draw on h i s understanding where.  o f s o c i a l system performance and on e x p e r i e n c e s  At p r e s e n t , t h i s c a p a c i t y i s very l i m i t e d :  developmental process  tribute w i l l  i t i s hoped, as  proceeds and our u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f s o c i a l  and t h e i r responses to change  improves, t h e p l a n n e r s '  increase correspondingly.  However,  elsethis  systems  c a p a c i t y to con-  i t must again be  left  t o t h e members o f the s o c i e t y t o judge whether the a n t i c i p a t e d change  is  developmental o r n o t . The a n a l y s i s the p l a n n e r s '  o f the problems, p r e s e n t and a n t i c i p a t e d , i s  responsibility.  problems and t h e i r c a u s e s ,  On the b a s i s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s  of  the  a l t e r n a t i v e s t r a t e g i e s must be d e s i g n e d .  may have t o be i n n o v a t i v e o r they may be d e r i v e d from e x p e r i e n c e s It  is  largely  These  elsewhere.  important t h a t the p l a n n e r p r e s e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s , f o r these too must  be e v a l u a t e d a n d s e l e c t e d on This  process  be s u b s t a n t i a l social  standing their  research.  Equally  strategies,  innovation.  in  strategies  social  responses Second,  research  is  the  If  in the s o c i a l  sense of  Freire's  (1968)  sense,  and c r e a t i v i t y , But  internal  development',  internal.  the  i t engenders  necessary  the  leadership,  likely  an e a r l y  development  o b j e c t i v e might  capabilities.  particularly  The p r o b l e m o f  how t y r a n n i e s  or  its  To  or  improve our  social  under-  subsystems  involves  and  the  but  in  confidence, for  develop-  as  1  improve  self-esteem  'positive  effect'.  the g u a l i t y  raises  frustrates  for  and  and  'self-sustaining of  problem-solving  the d i f f i c u l t  development  the planning  to  and  be t h e d e v e l o p m e n t  organizational  to explore  the  them  'observed ,  prerequisites  leadership also  leadership which  A brief digression  develop  to l e g i t i m i z e the process  needs.  t h e human r e s o u r c e ,  to  feature of  capacity  local  of  evaluate  P a r t i c i p a t i o n in  the process  individual's  to  the base  handled.  the  responsiveness  expand  of  'actors',  is also  its  be  sciences  the  increasing  must  leadership  ensure  to  must  change.  i t s e l f developmental.  not  there  establish  required  as b o t h an o b j e c t i v e a n d a n e c e s s a r y leadership  to  and  interactions of  process  subjects,  is  necessary  the  in  needed  objectives.  require technological  ment p r o c e s s , is  is  and  First,  and w e a k n e s s e s ,  research  and  perceptions  implications.  t h a t may  system b e h a v i o r ,  to stress  local  Research  specific  And more g e n e r a l  of  important  i d e n t i f y strengths  objectives.  appropriate  three  investment  performance,  societal  has  the basis of  question  efforts  can  implications of  be  this  justifiable. It by members but even  must of  f i r s t be e m p h a s i z e d  the  t h e members  of  society.  that oppression  An o u t s i d e r  may c o n s i d e r  t h e s o c i e t y may t o l e r a t e  perceive the oppression  at  all.  must be  an e l i t e  i t , accept  The W e s t e r n  perceived  i t or  oppressive t h e y may  v i e w o f many  not  communist  is  c o u n t r i e s may f i t t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n .  However, where the members o f the  s o c i e t y f i n d t h e e l i t e o p p r e s s i v e , and t h e i r development thwarted by i t , as  in South A f r i c a ,  i t becomes a development concern of major p r o p o r t i o n s .  U n f o r t u n a t e l y , the scope f o r development p l a n n i n g limited.  If nothing short of r e v o l u t i o n w i l l  the o n l y s o l u t i o n .  in such c i r c u m s t a n c e s  remove the e l i t e ,  it  Yet r e v o l u t i o n s are r e a l l y beyond p l a n n i n g .  is  The  A l g e r i a n r e v o l u t i o n may be more a p t l y c a l l e d a r e b e l l i o n , f o r i t d i d but exchange a l o c a l e l i t e f o r a f o r e i g n one.  little  The Russian produced a  g r e a t e r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n , but i t i s not c l e a r i t has f u l f i l l e d tionary objectives.  is  its  revolu-  China appears t o have come c l o s e r to i t s goal  than  e i t h e r A l g e r i a o r the S o v i e t U n i o n , but even t h e r e g r e a t u n c e r t a i n t i e s remain.  So much o f a r e v o l u t i o n depends on a few p e r s o n a l i t i e s and  historical ficantly  a c c i d e n t , i t i s d o u b t f u l t h a t the u n c e r t a i n t i e s can be s i g n i -  reduced.  A p l a n n e r , qua p l a n n e r , can p r o b a b l y do l i t t l e  he may choose t o a c t as an i n d i v i d u a l ) .  The o n l y course open may be to  remove as much support as p o s s i b l e from the l e a d e r s h i p , as above under the r o l e o f the i n t e r n a t i o n a l community. p l a n n i n g f o r development  (though  recommended  The dilemma o f  in an a n t i - d e v e l o p m e n t environment w i l l  not be  solved e a s i l y . Finally,  to r e t u r n to the development p r o c e s s ,  be e x p e r i m e n t a l - - i t must be e x p l i c i t l y strategy  i s an e x p e r i m e n t .  the process  must  r e c o g n i z e d t h a t any development  In the f i r s t c h a p t e r i t was suggested t h a t  the i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n o f the West, w i t h i t s u r b a n i z a t i o n and n u c l e a r families,  i s a s o c i a l experiment (indeed a p o o r l y a s s e s s e d one a t t h a t ) :  planned s t r a t e g i e s f o r the T h i r d World a r e no l e s s so. case,  i t would seem r e a s o n a b l e t o d e s i g n the s t r a t e g i e s as e x p e r i m e n t s .  E x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i m p l i e s the end r e s u l t doubt.  That being the  i s unknown o r a t l e a s t in some  And e x p e r i e n c e in development has  i n d i c a t e d unforeseen  problems  do i n e v i t a b l y a r i s e  (Hirshman,  jump (or push another)  1963).  No more than i t would be w i s e to  i n t o unknown w a t e r , i t i s not r e a s o n a b l e to under-  take l a r g e s c a l e e x p e r i m e n t s .  I f the course  i s u n c l e a r and problems are  c e r t a i n , the experiment ought t o be designed to m i n i m i z e d i s r u p t i o n and maximize f l e x i b i l i t y .  T h i s may be approached  The s c a l e o f the experiment i s crop,  in two ways.  important.  I n t r o d u c t i o n o f a new  r e q u i r i n g new t e c h n i q u e s , w i t h which the p r o d u c e r , d i s t r i b u t o r , and  consumer a r e u n f a m i l i a r i s  l i k e l y t o have more problems than i n t r o d u c i n g  improved t e c h n i q u e s f o r a f a m i l i a r c r o p .  The a b i l i t y t o m o n i t o r and assess  the p r o g r e s s o f the experiment i s a l s o e a s i e r i f the s c a l e i s s m a l l and t h i s in t u r n f a c i l i t a t e s f l e x i b i 1 i t y - - t h e f i n e t u n i n g t h a t may be  necessary.  There may be problems w i t h the new c r o p , w i t h the new equipment o r m a t e r i a l s , w i t h the n e c e s s a r y  s k i l l s o r w i t h i n the m a r k e t i n g system.  Where s e v e r a l d i f f i c u l t i e s a r i s e i t i s d i f f i c u l t the c r i t i c a l  ones, and perhaps as  support f o r the programme.  important, i t is d i f f i c u l t  i n t r o d u c i n g the change  in one l o c a l e , a d a p t i n g and  improving  Again the a b i l i t y t o a s s e s s  impacts i s f a c i l i t a t e d and the c o s t s of the programme,  the e v a l u a t i o n , and t h e a d a p t a t i o n s a r e l o w e r — a s i f the s c a l e i s  adaptations  The s c a l e may a l s o be r e s t r i c t e d  i t there before applying i t to other areas. the programme, and i t s  to m a i n t a i n  Where o n l y the t e c h n o l o g y changes,  can be made in i t as problems a r i s e . spatially,  to i d e n t i f y and c o r r e c t  i s the c o s t o f f a i l u r e ,  smal1.  Not u n r e l a t e d t o the q u e s t i o n o f s c a l e , but d i s t i n c t from i t , i s the scope o f the change and i t s r e l a t i o n to the s o c i a l system. development need not n e c e s s a r i l y produce s o c i a l change. change  is c o m p a t i b l e w i t h the e x i s t i n g system,  I f the i n t r o d u c e d  i f i t i s development w i t h i n  the system, t h e r e do not appear t o be the r e p e r c u s s i o n s social  Economic  throughout  system, t h a t accompany d i s r u p t i v e changes ( E p s t e i n , 1971).  the Based  66 on the r e s e a r c h  i n t o s o c i a l performance, e x p e r i m e n t a l changes may be  i n t r o d u c e d i n t o those subsystems most  in need o f improvement, w i t h c a r e  b e i n g taken t o m i n i m i z e the e f f e c t s on o t h e r subsystems. t h i s necessary  Until  now, w i t h o u t  i n f o r m a t i o n , the scope o f the change has not been  r e s t r i c t e d - - i n d e e d , as was i n d i c a t e d above, g r e a t e r the change,  i t was o f t e n argued t h a t the  the g r e a t e r the s p i l l o v e r e f f e c t , the g r e a t e r the d i s -  r u p t i o n , the b e t t e r .  As our u n d e r s t a n d i n g  o f s o c i a l system  behaviour  improves, as our a b i l i t y t o p r e d i c t changes in o t h e r subsystems and t h e i r interactions  improves,  experiments.  i t may be p o s s i b l e  At p r e s e n t ,  t o undertake more complex s o c i a l  i t would be f o o l i s h or c a l l o u s t o take such  a c t i o n in most c a s e s , where the problems o f s o c i a l performance are not systemic. A r c h i t e c t s appear t o be l e a r n i n g to d e s i g n n a t u r a l s e t t i n g , to change as  l i t t l e as p o s s i b l e .  adopted t h i s approach as w e l l . e c o l o g i c a l system i s almost  i n harmony w i t h the It  i s time  planners  Once r a z e d , the s o c i a l system,  impossible  to r e s u r r e c t .  And man's  like  the  creations  have y e t t o match the product o f m i l l e n i a o f e v o l u t i o n . Having thus designed possible  an e x p e r i m e n t , as s m a l l  in s c a l e and scope  ( g i v e n the n a t u r e and urgency o f the problem)  c l o s e l y as p o s s i b l e  and d i r e c t e d as  t o the s p e c i f i c performance d e f i c i e n c y , the implemen-  t a t i o n and outcome must be m o n i t o r e d , e v a l u a t e d and m o d i f i e d . be expected t h a t the p r e l i m i n a r y s t u d i e s w i l l  M o n i t o r i n g and e v a l u a t i o n t h e r e f o r e i s e s s e n t i a l  systems,  i t is  to improve performance.  cannot the  problems.  to allow m o d i f i c a t i o n s  Due to the i n t e r a c t i o n o f  i m p e r a t i v e t h a t the m o n i t o r i n g and e v a l u a t i o n be as  in scope as the i n i t i a l performance  It  permit the design o f  p e r f e c t e x p e r i m e n t , nor t h a t i t c o u l d be implemented w i t h o u t  o f the s t r a t e g y ,  as  r e s e a r c h , f o r i t cannot be assumed t h a t an  in the t a r g e t s e c t o r i n d i c a t e s a s u c c e s s f u l  experiment.  subbroad improved  67 Unforeseen c o m p l i c a t i o n s may reduce performance in o t h e r s e c t o r s . T h i s f o l l o w - u p r e s e a r c h has another important f u n c t i o n , b e s i d e s improving the s t r a t e g y and i t s performance. i n t o s o c i a l system b e h a v i o r , o b s e r v i n g  Over time t h i s  research  system response t o l i m i t e d i n t e r -  v e n t i o n s , ought t o markedly improve our u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f s o c i a l behavior.  The c u m u l a t i v e e f f e c t o f such u n d e r s t a n d i n g w i l l  system  be an  increased  p r e d i c t i v e c a p a c i t y , f a c i l i t a t i n g the design o f f u t u r e e x p e r i m e n t s , In the absence o f t h i s  r e s e a r c h (which i s e f f e e t i v e 1 y impaired by the n a t u r e  o f the s t r a t e g i e s p r e s e n t l y employed), very l i t t l e failures.  Strategy design  i s l e a r n e d from our  remains t h e r e f o r e l i t t l e more than e i t h e r  mimicry or t r i a l - a n d - e r r o r , n e i t h e r o f which has proved p a r t i c u l a r l y s u c c e s s f u l and n e i t h e r o f which has p r o v i d e d a base f o r f u t u r e The development p r o c e s s , present knowledge Several  is  success.  t h e n , must be a l e a r n i n g process as w e l l ,  f o r our  inadequate t o j u s t i f y a n y t h i n g e l s e .  c r i t i c i s m s o f t h i s approach are a n t i c i p a t e d .  t e x t ought t o c o n t a i n the r e b u t t a l , I wi11 t r y t o address  W h i l e the  these  arguments  directly. I have emphasized t h e l i m i t a t i o n s t o our u n d e r s t a n d i n g and the consequent need f o r r e s e a r c h .  It may be argued t h a t t h i s developmental  process may move too s l o w l y t o meet the urgency o f the problems or t h a t the quest f o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g may produce a p a r a l y s i s o f i n d e c i s i o n . ought not be the c a s e .  The t r a d e - o f f between r e s e a r c h and a c t i o n  That is  always a d i f f i c u l t one and the r i g h t mix depends on three f a c t o r s : i ) the s e v e r i t y and urgency of the problem; ii)  the a n t i c i p a t e d r i s k s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the course o f a c t i o n ; and  iii)  the c o s t s o f i n c r e a s i n g our u n d e r s t a n d i n g , of  research.  68 Where the problem i s v e r y s e r i o u s and urgent — f o r example a n a t u r a l c a t a s t r o p h e l i k e an e a r t h q u a k e o r s e v e r e drought — the r i s k of is r e l a t i v e l y less s i g n i f i c a n t — h i g h e r  risks  disruption  can be j u s t i f i e d .  Similarly,  where the proposed i n t e r v e n t i o n appears t o have l i t t l e a t t e n d a n t r i s k ,  it  may be j u s t i f i a b l e to t r a d e - o f f the c o s t s o f a d d i t i o n a l research t o reduce t h e a l r e a d y low r i s k f o r the b e n e f i t s o f e a r l i e r a c t i o n . o f r e s e a r c h are h i g h , and perhaps distant,  Where the c o s t s  the p r o s p e c t s o f i t s b e n e f i t s low o r v e r y  i t may be p r e f e r a b l e t o undertake the small s c a l e e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n .  The amount o f p r i o r r e s e a r c h w i l l  vary in each c i r c u m s t a n c e .  I would s u g g e s t , however, t h a t the degree o f urgency  in much o f  the T h i r d World i s not n e a r l y so g r e a t as many o f the economic suggest.  O v e r - a l l , many such s o c i e t i e s have f a i r l y h i g h  performance.  indicators  l e v e l s of s o c i a l  It would t h e r e f o r e be u n j u s t i f i a b l e t o take the h i g h  p o o r l y researched a c t i o n in such c a s e s . analogy o f the s o c i a l system as a c a r .  Mishan  risk  of  (1967) draws an apt  Being an e c o n o m i s t , o f course the  engine i s the economic system, w i t h economists being p r i m a r i l y concerned w i t h the e n g i n e ' s engine t h a t w i l l ners'  performance and the ways to diagnose and tune i t .  An  d r i v e a c a r a t 100 mph., however, ought not be the p l a n -  major c o n c e r n .  One hundred mph in the wrong d i r e c t i o n i s h a r d l y  progress 1 F i r s t and f o r e m o s t , the development process ought t o ensure car i s on the r i g h t road, heading  the  in the d i r e c t i o n the occupants want to  go. In the e a r l y  ' 6 0 ' s , Hirschman  p r o s p e c t s f o r development.  (1963) was o p t i m i s t i c about the  W h i l e problems would i n e v i t a b l y a r i s e , the  " H i d i n g Hand" (some deus ex machina composite o f man's  technology,  i n v e n t i v e n e s s and a d a p t a b i l i t y ) would j u s t as i n e v i t a b l y save the situation.  C a u t i o n , we were t o l d , was not t o be s t r e s s e d — a c t ion was  r e g u i r e d , the problems would be s o l v e d as they a r o s e .  W e l l , the problems  69 a r o s e , but the Hand too o f t e n has  remained h i d i n g .  f a i t h and hope, but h i s success w i l l butes.  To r e i t e r a t e ,  The p l a n n e r may need  depend more on h i s s u b s t a n t i v e  unforeseen problems w i l l  r e s e a r c h can serve to reduce such s u r p r i s e s ,  inevitably arise.  attri-  Initial  f o l l o w - u p r e s e a r c h can s e r v e  t o i d e n t i f y those problems b e f o r e they become s e r i o u s ,  and the s m a l l - s c a l e  experiements both reduce the c o m p l e x i t y and magnitude of the problems, and f a c i l i t a t e adjustments t o reduce them. Finally,  i t may be argued t h a t t h i s process o f development  e x p e r i m e n t a l e v o l u t i o n i s s o c i a l e n g i n e e r i n g as much as any o t h e r  through strategy  and f u r t h e r , i t does not produce the growth which the people o f the T h i r d World want.  P l a n n e r s , of c o u r s e , are always open t o charges o f p l a y i n g god.  The e x t e n t t o which i t i s v a l i d , however, depends on the e x t e n t t o which the p l a n n e r sees the people as o b j e c t s r a t h e r than as s u b j e c t s .  Where they  a r e the s u b j e c t s , the a c t o r s , and the p l a n n e r p r o v i d e s h i s s k i l l s  to  s a t i s f y t h e i r needs, he i s n e i t h e r e n g i n e e r i n g t h e i r s o c i e t y nor p l a y i n g god.  His s o c i a l e n g i n e e r i n g c o u l d o n l y be j u s t i f i e d i f in f a c t he knew  t h e a n s w e i — c o u l d say which s o c i a l system were b e t t e r .  That i s not p o s s -  i b l e ; g i v e n t h a t performance i s a s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n , i t i s impossible. process,  logically  To the e x t e n t the people are i n v o l v e d in the development  t h e n , t h e y , not the p l a n n e r , are e n g i n e e r i n g t h e i r s o c i e t y . To argue t h a t the c h o i c e has been made, t h a t w i t h a few e x c e p t i o n s  l i k e Nyere, the T h i r d World l e a d e r s have opted f o r economic growth t o make two dubious assumptions. has been made.  It  F i r s t , i t i s t o assume an e x p l i c i t  i s h a r d l y more n e c e s s a r y  decision  t h a t i t has been made i n the  T h i r d World than t h a t i t was made i n B r i t a i n two c e n t u r i e s ago. happened.  is  It  has  The i n e r t i a o f the w o r l d economic system has caught up the new  c o u n t r i e s , as much as the o l d .  A d m i t t e d l y , many l e a d e r s have  explicitly  endorsed s t r a t e g i e s o f r a p i d i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and even o f s o c i a l d i s r u p t i o n .  70 Much o f the e l i t e  is t h e r e p r e c i s e l y because i t has adopted such s t r a t e g i e s .  But the second assumption  i s more c l e a r l y f a l s e and more c e n t r a l t o t h i s  thes is . That i s the assumption  t h a t the T h i r d World has adopted s t r a t e g i e s  o f i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and economic growth i n a p e r f e c t , r a t i o n a l manner ( j u s t as consumers  are r a t i o n a l , u t i 1 i t y m a x i m i z e r s ) .  This  i s not t o  suggest the a d o p t i o n was i r r a t i o n a l , but r a t h e r n o n - r a t i o n a l , in the sense t h a t i t c o u l d not weigh the c o s t s a g a i n s t the b e n e f i t s were on d i s p l a y .  the b e n e f i t s , when o n l y  We are a l l p a r t o f G a l b r a i t h ' s  "seduced  p u b l i c " , b u y i n g goods we d o n ' t need o r want w i t h money we d o n ' t P a r t o f the p l a n n e r s '  task  i s t o r e v e a l the hidden c o s t s .  have.  If the c o s t s  are as h i g h as they appear t o be, and the b e n e f i t s as low, i t s h o u l d not be unreasonable  to expect a s h i f t away from s t r a t e g i e s o f i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n ,  u r b a n i z a t i o n , e x p o r t and d i s r u p t i o n . I suggest (and hope)  t h i s process o f development through  and e x p e r i m e n t a l e v o l u t i o n w i l l ment and i n d i v i d u a l  fulfillment.  research  p r o v i d e a sound base f o r s o c i e t a l d e v e l o p -  71  BlBLIOGRAPHY  Adelman, Irma. 1961. T h e o r i e s o f Economic Growth and Development. Stanford U n i v e r s i t y Press, Stanford. 1961. Adelman, Irma and C T . M o r r i s . 1973Economic Growth and S o c i a l E q u i t y Developing C o u n t r i e s . Stanford University Press, Stanford. 1973Almond, R i c h a r d . 1971. 224 ( 3 ) : 34-42.  "The T h e r a p e u t i c Community"  in  S c i e n t i f i c American  A p e l , Hans and Burkhard S t r u m p e l . 1976. 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