UBC Theses and Dissertations

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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Study of the opportunities and costs of preserving recreation sites along the lower Fraser River Friesen, Brock Frederick James 1974

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h STUDY OF THE OPPOBTONITIES AND COSTS OF PRESERVING 1JCREATIOK SITES ftLONG THE LOWER FRASER RIVER by BROCK FREDERICK JAMES FRIESEN B.A. (hon), Simon Eraser University, 1972 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFIL REKT CF THE REQUIREMENTS FOB THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the School of Community and Regional Planning We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1974 i In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements f o r an advanced degree at the D n i v e r s i t y c f B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree t h a t the l i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and study. I f u r t h e r agree t h a t permission f o r e x t e n s i v e copying of t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . I t i s understood t h a t copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . School of Community and Regional Planning D n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia A p r i l , 1974 i i A b s t r a c t T h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o e x a m i n e t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f p r e s e r v i n g s p e c i f i e d r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s a l o n g t h e l o w e r F r a s e r R i v e r . I n a c h i e v i n g t h i s p u r p o s e i t d o e s t h e f o l l o w i n g : 1. i t e x a m i n e s t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s w h e r e b y l a n d i s a l l o c a t e d t c s p e c i f i c u s e s , 2. i t i d e n t i f i e s t h e p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s f c r p o s s i b l e p r e s e r v a t i o n , 3 . i t a s s e s s e s t h e n a t u r e a n d e x t e n t o f t h e c o n f l i c t b e t w e e n r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s a n d e x i s t i n g a n d p o t e n t i a l i n d u s t r i a l s h o r e l a n d u s e , 4. i t d e v e l o p s a n a n a l y t i c f r a m e w o r k f o r e x a m i n i n g t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f p r e s e r v i n g r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , 5 . i t a p p l i e s t h e f r a m e w o r k t o d e t e r m i n e t h e b e n e f i t s w h i c h t h e r e g i o n m i g h t f o r g o i f i t w e r e t o p r e s e r v e t h e r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d . A n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l s e t t i n g f o u n d t h a t p r i v a t e m a r k e t s a l o n e m a y n o t p r o v i d e r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n t h e l o w e r F r a s e r i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h s o c i e t y ' s w i l l i n g n e s s t o p a y f o r t h e m . P u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s h a v e e v o l v e d t o r e g u l a t e t h e m a r k e t , h o w e v e r , a n d a n a n a l y s i s o f t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f p r e s e r v i n g r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i s m a d e i n o r d e r t o a s s i s t d e c i s i o n m a k e r s i n f u t u r e s h o r e l a n d a l l o c a t i o n s . T o r t h i s a n a l y s i s t o b e m e a n i n g f u l i t w a s n e c e s s a r y t o i d e n t i f y s p e c i f i c r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , a n d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e n a t u r e a n d e x t e n t o f t h e i i i conflict between these and industrial use. Thirty-two major recreation sites were identif ied. About two-thirds cf these were found tc conflict with potential industrial needs for shoreland designated industrial by the Hegional Plan, and with log storage act ivit ies cf the forest industry. Ideally a technique for allocating shoreland to recreational or industrial uses should te based on an assessment cf the benefits and costs of alternative land uses. However, an opportunity cost approach is a l l that is practicable at this time because of the d i f f i cu l t i e s associated with evaluating present and future recreation demands. A qualitative approach to the evaluation was devised because past attempts to measure social opportunity cost were not appropriate in this situation where concern was primarily with demand far into the future. The analysis focussed on the rental value differences between industrial use of shoreland and upland, the supply and demand fcr industrial shoreland, and the cost cf log storage alternatives. The analysis produced four main findings. F i r s t , most firms do not attach a signif icantly higher rental value to shoreland than to upland sites. Second, the supply cf waterway access is much greater than anticipated industrial demand, and the opportunity cost of preserving land with recreation potential is zero in the short run. Third, the study area has sufficient land designated industrial that a small reduction for the preservation of recreation sites wi l l net affect the land market. Four, seasonal storage leases and bundle booming can be implemented to free recreation sites of stored logs without incurring a net opportunity cost. I w o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k P r o f . I r v i n g F o x a n d D r . J e n O ' R i o r d a n , my a d v i s o r s , f o r t h e d i r e c t i o n a n d c r i t i c i s m t h e y h a v e g e n e r o u s l y s u p p l i e d i n t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s . I n a d d i t i o n I w o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k M r . K e n P e t e r s e n f o r p a t i e n t l y r e a d i n g a n d r e r e a d i n g t h e m a n y d r a f t s o f t h i s m a n u s c r i p t , a n d t h e W e s t w a t e r R e s e a r c h C e n t e r w h i c h f u n d e d t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f m u c h o f t h e d a t a u s e d . A l t h o u g h n o t d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d , s p e c i a l t h a n k s g o t o D r . E d G i b s o n f o r t h e m o t i v a t i o n a n d c o n f i d e n c e p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h h i s f r i e n d s h i p . V Table of Contents Chapter One -- Scope and O b j e c t i v e s 1 A?" oijECTIVES OF~THE~STUDY ~ 3 B. ; DEFINITION OF THE STUDY ARIA 4 C. ORGANIZATION 5 Chapter Two zz The I n s t i t u t i o n a l S e t t i n g 8 A. PRIVATE~MARKET FAILURES ~ 9 B. PUBLIC INSTITUTIONAL REGULATION 15 C. , SUMMARY 22 Chapter Three zz P o t e n t i a l Value f o r R e c r e a t i o n a l Purposes 24 A. RECREATIONAL~LAND~INVENTORY 25 B. INVENTORY RESULTS 33 (1) Major S i t e s 34 (2) Dispersed S i t e s 37 (3) Small S i t e s 38 €. „ SUMMARY 39 Chapter Four -- I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of R e c r e a t i o n a l - I n d u s t r i a l Shoreland Use C o n f l i c t s 46 A. NATURE OF INDUSTRIAL USE ~ 47 B. CONFLICTS WITH PERMANENT INDUSTRIAL USE 48 (1) Regional Plan 49 (2) Channel C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 54 (3) Foundation C o n d i t i o n s 55 (4) Other C o n s i d e r a t i o n s 56 C. CONFLICTS 8ITH NON-PERMANENT INDUSTRIAL USE 58 D. , SUMMARY 60 Chapter F i v e -- A n a l y t i c Frame work f o r Ejcamining the S o c i a l 2£12£iU£2il Cost of P r e s e r v i n g F r a s e r Shoreland f o r R e c r e a t i o n 71 A. EVALUATING~SOCIAL OPPOHTUNITY~COST: A REVIEW OF PERTINENT THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL LITERATURE 73 (1) F a c t o r s i n the Ren t a l Value of Shorelanas 75 (2) Past Attempts to Measure Opportunity Cost 85 B. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK FOR THIS STUDY 91 (1) L i m i t i n g Shoreland Use f c r New P l a n t S i t e s 93 (2) Log Storage A l t e r n a t i v e s 98 Chapter Six zz The S o c i a l Opportunity Cost of P r e s e r v i n g R e c r e a t i o n S i t e s : An A n a l y s i s of the Demand and Su££lj of I n d u s t r i a l " " s h o r e land ~ ~ 99 A. RENTAL VAL U l T o F ~ WATER WAY ACCESS 100 <1) I n d u s t r i a l Use of Fr a s e r Shorelands 101 (2) Recent Trends i n Shoreland P l a n t L o c a t i o n s 107 (3) Firm Needs and P r e f e r e n c e s 111 (4) S p e c i f i c I n d u s t r i e s 114 (5) V a l u a t i o n of Shoreland 116 (6) Summary 122 vi B. SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOB WATERWAY ACCESS: THE SOCIAL OPPORTUNITY COST OF UNEMPLOYED RESOURCES 123 (1) Past P r e d i c t i o n s 124 (2) C a p a c i t y of Shorelands 128 (3) Rate of Shoreland Occupation 130 (4) Summary 134 C. DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIAL LAND 134 Chapter Seven The S o c i a l Opportunity Cost of P r e s e r v i n g R e c r e a t i o n S i t e s : An A n a l y s i s of Log Storacje A l t e r n a t i v e s 138 A. RELOCATION ~ 139 B. SEASONAL STORAGE 141 C. BUNDLE BOOMING 144 D. SUMMARY 146 Chapter E i g h t -- Summary and C o n c l u s i o n s 147 IT" IDENTIFICATION OF~RECREATION SITES 149 B. CONFLICTS WITH INDUSTRIAL NEEDS 150 C. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK 152 D. THE SOCIAL OPPORTUNITY COST OF PRESERVING RECREATION SITES 154 (1) R e n t a l Value of Waterway Access 154 (2) Supply and Demand of Waterway Access 156 (3) Supply and Demand f o r I n d u s t r i a l Land i n the G.V.R.D. 157 (4) The Opportunity Cost of Fr e e i n g R e c r e a t i o n S i t e s of Log Storage 157 E. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS 158 Bibliography, 160 Persons Consulted 168 Appendix I 169 appendix I I 171 l££endix I I I 173 v i i i i i ? ! 2t Figures F i g u r e One — Study area and Shoreland Use 7 Figure Two — Inventory of R e c r e a t i o n areas 41 F i g u r e Three -- O f f i c i a l Regional Plan 62 F i g u r e Four — Channel S u i t a b i l i t y 63 F i g u r e F i v e — Foundation C o n d i t i o n s 64 F i g u r e S i x — Log Storage areas 65 F i g u r e Seven P r o j e c t e d shoreland Occupation Port areas i n Deep 132 F i g u r e E i g h t -- P r o j e c t e d shoreland Occupation Port areas i n Shallow 133 v i i i L i s t of T a b l e s Table One — R e c r e a t i o n a l Use and F o t e n t i a l of Major S i t e s 42 Table Two — Summary of R e c r e a t i o n a l - I n d u s t r i a l Shoreland C o n f l i c t s 52 Table Three — P o t e n t i a l and E x i s t i n g C o n f l i c t s 66 Table Four -- Extent of the R e c r e a t i o n a l - I n d u s t r i a l C o n f l i c t 69 Table F i v e -- I n d u s t r i a l Use of F r a s e r Shoreland 103 Table Six — New I n d u s t r i a l E stablishments 110 Table Seven — R e s u l t s of Survey of I n d u s t r i a l R e a l t o r s 113 Table E i g h t -- Land Values Long the North Bank of the Main Arm 118 Table Nine — T y p i c a l I n d u s t r i a l Land Values 121 Table Ten -- P o s s i b l e Future Shoreland Occupation 129 Table Eleven -- Vacant Shoreland and the C a p a c i t y f o r New Occupants 130 Table Twelve — Average Monthly Log Inventory i n the Main Arm 143 1 Chapter One Scope and O b j e c t i v e s A r a p i d l y emerging planning i s s u e i n the Greater Vancouver re g i o n i s the a l l o c a t i o n of shorelands along the F r a s e r R i v e r . Part of the area's waterfrontage i s c u r r e n t l y used f o r i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s , and the O f f i c i a l R egional P l a n has f e s t e r e d a continued growth i n the i n d u s t r i a l use of shoreland by d e s i g n a t i n g the bulk of the l a r g e l y unused lands f o r such a c t i v i t i e s . Recently r e c r e a t i o n i s t s have begun to demand t h a t c e r t a i n s i t e s be preserved f o r p u b l i c r e c r e a t i o n a l use, and they have produced a number of s t u d i e s which have appealed f o r government a c t i o n to prevent i n d i s c r i m i n a t e development of s p e c i f i c s i t e s . A c t i o n has a l s o been demanded to r e s t r i c t l o g storage a c t i v i t i e s which l i m i t f o r e s h o r e use f o r r e c r e a t i o n purposes. Evidence of a new concern f o r r e c r e a t i o n i n the F r a s e r shorelands i s expressed i n numerous r e p o r t s (eg., Halladay and H a r r i s : 1972, Pearson: 1973, Watmough: 1972, and Hersta: 1973). P a r t i c u l a r i l y s t r o n g i n t e r e s t has been expressed by the R e c r e a t i o n P o l i c y Committee of the Greater Vancouver Region a l D i s t r i c t ' s l i v e a b l e Region Program (G.V.R.D.: 1973) which has 2 urged the establishment of a board to manage areas of the R i v e r s u i t e d to r e c r e a t i o n use, the a s s e r t i o n of p u b l i c r i g h t of access to a l l f o r e s h o r e and R i v e r waters, and the p o s s i b l e use of Greenbelt Act funds t o a c g u i r e shoreland f o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Although r e c r e a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t i n the lower Fraser i s being expressed with i n c r e a s i n g i n t e n s i t y i t has been mainly concerned with s p e c i f i c s i t e s , and f r e q u e n t l y very l i t t l e i s known about each of them. The r e p o r t s which have been mentioned and those which are l i s t e d i n Appendix I I have e i t h e r been c o n f i n e d to s m a l l a r e a s , have only c o n s i d e r e d s i n g l e uses such as bar f i s h i n g , or have been very s u p e r f i c i a l i n nature. These o b s e r v a t i o n s have prompted the Recreation P o l i c y Committee to recommend a c a t a l o g u i n g of p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n areas. P r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n s i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n d u s t r i a l use and needs f o r shoreland were complex and u n c l e a r . I t was noted t h a t i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s not only use shorelands i n the t r a d i t i o n a l sense as s i t e s f o r p l a n t s or r e l a t e d s t r u c t u r e s , but much of the s h o r e l i n e was a l s o e x t e n s i v e l y used f c r the storage of l o g s . While t h i s use i s l e s s important from the point of view of permanent d e s t r u c t i o n of n a t u r a l landscapes, i t does prevent the use of s e v e r a l upland and f o r e s h o r e areas by r e c r e a t i o n i s t s and i s l i k e l y to be the most immediate problem. C o n f l i c t with upland use i s l e s s obvious as F i g u r e One i l l u s t r a t e s that much of the shorelands are vacant or a g r i c u l t u r a l i n aspect. But while i t can be observed t h a t upland s i t e s have not as 3 yet been e x t e n s i v e l y occupied by i n d u s t r y , r e g i o n a l land-use p o l i c y has widely favoured the expansion of i n d u s t r i a l use. The Lower Mainland R e g i o n a l Plan (L.M.R.P.B.: 1966) has designated the l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of the F r a s e r shoreland w i t h i n the G.V.R.D. f o r i n d u s t r i a l use. More r e c e n t l y . Forward's (1968) study of the present use and f u t u r e demands f o r s h o r e l a n d , and the G.V-B.D.«s (1971) study of the f u t u r e i n d u s t r i a l development of the Region have both r e i n f o r c e d the Regional Plan's a l l o c a t i o n f o r i n d u s t r i a l use. The former c o n s i d e r s the F r a s e r as " w e l l s u i t e d to accomodate the great m a j o r i t y of the r e g i o n ' s water-oriented i n d u s t r y " , and the l a t t e r e s t i m a t e s t h a t even with the l a r g e areas a l r e a d y designated f o r i n d u s t r y there w i l l only be enough shoreland to accomodate the needs t c the year 2000. &. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY. One may a p p r o p r i a t e l y ask whether t h e r e i s any reason to b e l i e v e t h a t e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s do not a l l o c a t e shoreland to serve the best i n t e r e s t of s o c i e t y . One of the i n i t i a l t a sks of t h i s study, t h e r e f o r e , was to examine e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements to determine how shorelands are a l l o c a t e d . There i s c l e a r evidence that because of the l i m i t a t i o n s c f market f o r c e s p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s i n t e r v e n e i n the a l l o c a t i o n of s h o r e l a n d . T h i s t h e s i s examines the i n f o r m a t i o n needed by d e c i s i o n makers i n d e c i d i n g how shorelands should be a l l o c a t e d , and attempts to f i l l some of the gaps i n the i n f o r m a t i o n c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e . 4 In d e c i d i n g whether i t i s a d v i s a b l e to a l l o c a t e shoreland t o r e c r e a t i o n uses, p u b l i c o f f i c i a l s must, i n e f f e c t , determine whether a given p a r c e l of land w i l l y i e l d g r e a t e r b e n e f i t s to s o c i e t y i f used f o r r e c r e a t i o n than i f i t were used f o r other purposes. , The comparison of the b e n e f i t s and c o s t s of a l t e r n a t i v e shoreland uses r e g u i r e s an assessment of the r e c r e a t i o n p o t e n t i a l , the b e n e f i t s of the r e c r e a t i o n uses, the value of i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n , and the c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d with the c o n s t r u c t i o n and maintainance of both a c t i v i t i e s at i n l a n d and shoreland s i t e s . although some of the i n f o r m a t i o n necessary f o r t h i s type of e v a l u a t i o n was c o l l e c t e d , weighing the b e n e f i t s and c o s t s of a l t e r n a t i v e uses to a r r i v e at the net b e n e f i t s each use w i l l produce i s a d i f f i c u l t task f o r reasons t h a t are e x p l a i n e d more f u l l y l a t e r on i n t h i s t h e s i s . Confronted with t h i s d i f f i c u l t y i t was decided t h a t t h i s study should f c c u s upon the b e n e f i t s s o c i e t y would forgo i f c e r t a i n shorelands were a l l o c a t e d t o r e c r e a t i o n uses. These b e n e f i t s forgone are r e f e r r e d t o as the " s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t " of p r e s e r v i n g s p e c i f i e d s i t e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n purposes. I t i s the purpose of t h i s t h e s i s to examine t h i s c o s t . B. DEFINITION OF THE STUDS AREA A number of reasons can be c i t e d f o r s e l e c t i n g the G.V.R.D. as the study area (shown i n F i g u r e One). I t i s the area where most of F r a s e r V a l l e y ' s p o p u l a t i o n i s c o n c e n t r a t e d , and t h e r e f o r e , the area most l i k e l y to experience i n t e n s e land 5 use c o n f l i c t s . The depth and channel c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s upstream from the G.V.R.D. r e s t r i c t the p o t e n t i a l i n d u s t r i a l use of t h i s s e c t i o n of the R i v e r . Because many of the land uses transcend m u n i c i p a l boundaries, and because the Regional Government i s p l a y i n g an e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g r o l e i n the a l l o c a t i o n of land i t i s a l s o the most important d e c i s i o n making u n i t . The terms shoreland and shorezone w i l l be used i n t e r c h a n g a b l y i n t h i s study t o i n c l u d e not only the narrow s t r i p on e i t h e r s i d e of the s h o r e l i n e , but a l s o the upland and the o f f s h o r e waters i n s o f a r as they a f f e c t each other. While i t i s conceded that such a d e f i n i t i o n i s u n s a t i s f a c t o r i l y c i r c u l a r , i t a l lows the boundaries to vary with the a l l o c a t i o n problem at hand. I f the problem concerns l o g booming i t w i l l extend from the a f f e c t e d i n t e r t i d a l f o r e s h o r e i n t o the adjacent water a r e a ; i f the problem concerns a major i n d u s t r i a l s i t e i t can i n c l u d e the necessary depth and breadth of upland. C. ORGANIZATION In Chapter Two the i n s t i t u t i o n a l s e t t i n g i s examined to determine whether an e v a l u a t i o n of s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t i s worthwhile. In Chapter Three r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s p o t e n t i a l l y v a l u a b l e f o r r e c r e a t i o n purposes are i d e n t i f i e d . In Chapter Four, the nature and extent of the c o n f l i c t s between use of i d e n t i f i e d s i t e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n purposes and 6 e x i s t i n g and p o t e n t i a l i n d u s t r i a l use of these areas i s determined. In Chapter F i v e , by drawing upon a p p l i c a b l e l i t e r a t u r e a methodology f o r making a q u a l i t a t i v e assessment of the s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of r e s e r v i n g the i d e n t i f i e d s i t e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n purposes i s developed. In Chapter S i x , the methodology i s a p p l i e d to the i d e n t i f i e d p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i i o n s i t e s and the e v a l u a t i o n i s made f o r i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s r e q u i r i n g p l a n t l o c a t i o n s . I n Chapter Seven, three l o g storage a l t e r n a t i v e s are examined to determine the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s of using these to f r e e r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . The c o n c l u d i n g chapter summarizes the f i n d i n g s of the study. 8 Chapter Two The I n s t i t u t i o n a l S e t t i n g A very l a r g e number of demands are placed on the supply of land. Obvious major users i n c l u d e housing, a g r i c u l t u r e , i n d u s t r y and r e c r e a t i o n . A number of v a r i a b l e s i n f l u e n c i n g t h i s demand can be l i s t e d : p o p u l a t i o n growth, d i s p o s a b l e income, l e i s u r e time, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n technology, consumer p r e f e r e n c e , and the c o m p e t i t i v e p o s i t i o n of a r e g i o n ' s i n d u s t r y i n n a t i o n a l and world markets (Beaulieu and Maxwell: 1972). Because of the complexity of these h i g h l y i n t e r r e l a t e d socio-economic and t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , problems of land a l l o c a t i o n are both d i f f i c u l t and dynamic. D e c i s i o n making about land use has h i s t o r i c a l l y been widely d i s p e r s e d among l i t e r a l l y m i l l i o n s of persons ( i n d i v i d u a l and corporate) and a host of p u b l i c agencies. These i n t e r e s t s are p r i m a r i l y o r g a n i z e d by the market mechanism under the guidance of a number of i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n t r o l s . The purpose of t h i s c hapter w i l l be to o u t l i n e the way both the p r i v a t e market and the e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements work i n a l l o c a t i n g s h o r e l a n d , and to i n v e s t i g a t e t h e i r apparent shortcomings. 9 A . P R I V A T E M A R K E T F A I L U R E S I f t h e e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n o f s h o r e l a n d i s d e f i n e d a s t h a t s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n w h i c h m a x i m i z e s t h e v a l u e - i n - u s e f o r i n d i v i d u a l p a r c e l s o f l a n d , a n d i f a l l p a r c e l s a r e a l l o c a t e d t o t h o s e a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h a r e w i l l i n g - t o - p a y t h e m o s t f o r t h e m , t h e t o t a l s u m o f r e n t a l f e e s w i l l b e m a x i m i z e d . T h i s d e f i n i t i o n i s b a s e d o n t h e t h e o r y o f r e n t s w h e r e t h e r e n t a l v a l u e o f a p a r c e l o f l a n d i s b i d u p t o a p o i n t w h e r e i t e x h a u s t s t h e p r o f i t s o f t h e a c t i v i t y o c c u p y i n g t h a t p a r c e l . I n a f r e e m a r k e t e c o n o m y t h e b i d d e r w h o p a y s t h e h i g h e s t p r i c e w i l l o b t a i n t h e r i g h t t o u s e a n y g i v e n p a r c e l o f l a n d . T h e p r i c e p a i d i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e d e m a n d s p l a c e d o n a p a r t i c u l a r p a r c e l o f l a n d b e c a u s e o f i t s p a r t i c u l a r c o m b i n a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s a n d a c c e s s i b i l i t y . B e c a u s e s o m e p a r c e l s o f l a n d m a y b e o f g r e a t e r v a l u e t h a n o t h e r s , a n d s o m e u s e r s m a y b e a b l e t o p a y m o r e f o r a p a r c e l t h e y d e s i r e , i t i s a r g u e d t h a t c o m p e t i t i o n a m o n g u s e r s w i l l g e n e r a t e t h e g r e a t e s t a m o u n t o f i n c o m e p e r a c r e , a n d s i t e s w i l l b e o c c u p i e d b y t h e u s e w h i c h i s o f g r e a t e s t e c o n o m i c v a l u e . T h i s i s o f t e n r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e " h i g h e s t a n d b e s t u s e " . F o r t h e m a r k e t t o a l l o c a t e l a n d e f f i c i e n t l y t h e p r i c e o f t h e l a n d m u s t r e f l e c t t h e v a l u e o f a l l s e r v i c e s w h i c h c o u l d b e p r o d u c e d o n t h e l a n d . U n d e r c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s , h o w e v e r , t h e w i l l i n g n e s s - t o - p a y o f c o n s u m e r s f o r t h e s e r e s o u r c e s m a y n e t b e r e g i s t e r e d : t h e e x i s t e n c e o f c o l l e c t i v e g o o d s , d e c r e a s i n g c o s t i n d u s t r i e s , e x t e r n a l i t i e s , a n d o p t i o n v a l u e s . B e c a u s e t h e s e i m p e r f e c t i o n s p r e c l u d e t h e e x p r e s s i o n o f w i l l i n g n e s s - t o - p a y , m a r k e t p r i c e s m a y n o t r e f l e c t s o c i e t y ' s w i l l i n g n e s s - t o - p a y f o r 1 0 r e c r e a t i o n a l use of F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s . T h e r e f o r e , land may not be a l l o c a t e d t o the uses which are of g r e a t e s t economic va l u e . The p r o v i s i o n of a r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t y on the F r a s e r shorelands can be termed a c o l l e c t i v e good. In c o n s i d e r i n g the problems a s s o c i a t e d with c o l l e c t i v e goods i t i s necessary to d i s t i n g u i s h them from p r i v a t e goods. The important c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of p r i v a t e goods i s t h a t consumption or use of a u n i t of good by one i n d i v i d u a l e f f e c t i v e l y prevents someone e l s e from consuming the same u n i t of t h a t good. C o l l e c t i v e goods on the other hand, are u s u a l l y consumed communally and cannot be i n d i v i d u a l l y packaged and s o l d . One person's consumption of a good such as a f i s h i n g bar or nature walk does net prevent, and f r e q u e n t l y does not d i m i n i s h , the enjoyment of t h a t good by another person. These d e f i n i t i o n s r e p r e s e n t i d e a l types and a great number of goods do not f i t e x c l u s i v e l y i n t o e i t h e r category. Because of the communal nature of c o l l e c t i v e goods, a person who prov i d e s them f o r h i m s e l f w i l l be p r o v i d i n g them without c o s t t o o t h e r s who may wish to use them. For example, i f a s h i p p i n g company b u i l d s a l i g h t h o u s e f o r i t s f l e e t , a l l s h i p p i n g i n the v i c i n i t y w i l l be a b l e to b e n e f i t from i t s s i g n a l . I t f o l l o w s t h a t s h i p p i n g companies w i l l be r e l u c t a n t to b u i l d l i g h t h o u s e s i n hopes t h a t other s h i p p i n g companies w i l l b u i l d them. T h i s example can be r e a d i l y a p p l i e d to the p r o v i s i o n of r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s on shoreland i f we assume that persons w i l l seek to minimize t h e i r own expenditure, and hope t h a t someone e l s e w i l l b u i l d and maintain parks and 11 beaches. In such cases, t h e r e f o r e , there i s l i k e l y to be a severe u n d e r p r o v i s i o n i n g of goods of t h i s type, and sons form of non-market a c t i o n i s r e g u i r e d i f goods which i n d i v i d u a l s w i l l not pay f o r , but groups i n s o c i e t y as a whole w i l l , are to be provided. The problems a s s o c i a t e d with d e c r e a s i n g - c c s t i n d u s t r i e s , such as the p r o v i s i o n of a r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t y on the F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s , can be d e s c r i b e d i n terms of the f o l l o w i n g example. Suppose t h a t an a d d i t i o n a l u n i t of a good which i s p r e s e n t l y being produced could be s u p p l i e d to a consumer a t a very low c o s t . The a d d i t i o n a l c o s t i s termed the marginal c o s t and i t w i l l pay a producer to supply the e x t r a u n i t at any p r i c e above h i s marginal c o s t . In a competetive market, theory has i t that the p r i c e f o r a l l u n i t s w i l l b e-driven down to t h i s marginal c o s t (not j u s t f o r the a d d i t i o n a l u n i t ) , and as a r e s u l t r e s o u r c e s w i l l be a l l o c a t e d i n the most e f f i c i e n t manner p o s s i b l e . The c r i t i c a l assumption of t h i s model i s that beyond a c e r t a i n p o i n t , there e x i s t diseconomies of s c a l e . However, there are some i n d u s t r i e s f o r which marginal c o s t s are always d e c r e a s i n g . Shoreland r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s can be c i t e d as examples of t h i s s i t u a t i o n because most of the pr o d u c t i o n c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d with them are i n c u r r e d a t the time of c o n s t r u c t i o n , and much of the wear and t e a r w i l l be a f u n c t i o n of time r a t h e r than use, thus y i e l d i n g a s i t u a t i o n where l i t t l e or no c o s t s are i n v o l v e d i n a l l o w i n g access t o an a d d i t i o n a l fisherman or beachcomber. I f an i n d u s t r y of t h i s type s e t s i t s p r i c e s equal 12 t o m a r g i n a l c o s t a t a l e v e l b e l o w a v e r a g e c o s t i t w i l l s o o n f a c e b a n k r u p t c y . I n o t h e r w o r d s t h e e s s e n t i a l c o n d i t i o n o f s u c c e s s f u l f r e e e n t e r p r i s e , t h a t t o t a l r e v e n u e e x c e e d t o t a l c o s t , w i l l n o t b e m e t i f t h e m a r g i n a l c o s t s a r e l e s s t h a n a v e r a g e c o s t s a n d p r i c e s a r e s e t a c c o r d i n g t o m a r g i n a l c o s t s . I f a v e r a g e c o s t s a r e c h a r g e d , t h e i n d u s t r y w i l l b r e a k e v e n b u t t h e g o o d s p r o d u c e d w i l l b e u n d e r u t i l i z e d a n d t h e r e s o u r c e s i n e f f i c i e n t l y d i s t r i b u t e d . I f r e c r e a t i o n a l g o o d s p r o d u c e d b y t h e s e t y p e s o f i n d u s t r i e s a r e t o b e s u p p l i e d , t h e y m u s t e i t h e r b e m a r k e t e d a t a v e r a g e c o s t , o r s o c i e t y m u s t b e p r e p a r e d t o s u b s i d i z e t h e i n d u s t r y t o m a k e u p t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n a v e r a g e a n d m a r g i n a l c o s t . I n t h e f i r s t i n s t a n c e , b e c a u s e o f s c a l e e f f i c i e n c i e s , c c m p e t i t i c n i s u n w o r k a b l e a n d t h e r i s e o f m o n o p o l i e s w i l l b e f a v o u r e d w h i c h w i l l i n v o l v e g r e a t e r i n e f f i c i e n c i e s o f a l l o c a t i o n a s m o n o p o l i e s w i l l t e n d t o r e s t r i c t o u t p u t i n o r d e r t o s e t p r i c e s a t a p o i n t t h a t w i l l m a x i m i z e p r o f i t s . I f s o c i e t y c h o o s e s t o s u b s i d i z e t h e p r o d u c t i o n i t w i l l h a v e t o b e d o n e f r o m a g e n e r a l t a x a t i o n n o t f r o m l e v i e s o n t h e c o n s u m e r s i n v o l v e d a s t h i s w o u l d a m o u n t t o r a i s i n g t h e p r i c e o f t h e g o o d t o t h e a v e r a g e c o s t . I t c a n b e s e e n , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t p r i v a t e m a r k e t s c a n n o t e f f i c i e n t l y p r o d u c e a n d a l l o c a t e g o o d s , w h i l e a t t h e s a m e t i m e m a k e a p r o f i t , i n t h e c a s e w h e r e t h e m a r g i n a l c o s t o f p r o d u c t i o n i s l e s s t h a n t h e a v e r a g e c o s t o f p r o d u c t i o n . T h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h i s s i t u a t i o n l i e s i n i t s p e r v a s i v e n e s s , a f f e c t i n g a s i t d o e s v i r t u a l l y a l l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s e r v i c e s . O u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s n a t u r a l l y f a l l i n t o t h e c a t e g o r y 13 of d e c r e a s i n g - c o s t i n d u s t r i e s i n t h a t they a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by very h i g h f i x e d c o s t s and very low v a r i a b l e c o s t s . As a r e s u l t m a r g i n a l c o s t v e r y o f t e n approaches z e r o w h i l e average c o s t ( a l t h o u g h i t f a l l s i n d i r e c t p r o p o r t i o n t o numbers of users) may be c o n s i d e r a b l e . The l o g i c a l c o n c l u s i o n o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t h a t p r i v a t e i n d u s t r y w i l l not be a b l e t o p r o v i s i o n s o c i e t y w i t h o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s on F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s i n an e f f i c i e n t manner. The t h i r d market f a i l u r e r e l e v a n t to the a l l o c a t i o n of s h o r e l a n d c o n c e r n s th e p r o d u c t i o n of p h y s i c a l , s o c i a l and economic s i d e - e f f e c t s . These s p i l l o v e r e f f e c t s on o f t e n u n r e l a t e d t h i r d p a r t i e s a r e not r e f l e c t e d i n the i n d i v i d u a l i n p u t - o u t p u t c a l c u l u s of the f i r m , and no market mechanism e x i s t s whereby a consumer can pay e i t h e r to consume i t o r a v o i d i t (O'Biordan: 1971). An e s s e n t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c i s t h a t the e x t e r n a l e f f e c t produced " i s not a d e l i b e r a t e c r e a t i o n but an u n i n t e n t i o n a l o r i n c i d e n t a l b y - p r o d u c t of some o t h e r w i s e l e g i t i m a t e a c t i v i t y " ( H ishan: 1971). Common examples of t h e s e i n the shorezone might i n c l u d e u n s i g h t l y b u i l d i n g s , e x c e s s i v e smoke, and l i q u i d waste d i s c h a r g e s . The i m p o r t a n c e of e x t e r n a l i t i e s i n t h e s h c r e z c n e may be g r e a t i f l a n d i s a l l o c a t e d on the b a s i s o f market p r i c e s which do not t a k e them i n t o a c c o u n t . E x t e r n a l i t i e s impose c o s t s cn goods which i n d u s t r i e s may c o n s i d e r f r e e , but s o c i e t y as a whole may c o n s i d e r s c a r c e ; and the market p r i c e o n l y r e f l e c t s the v a l u e of l a n d as a p r i v a t e good r a t h e r t h a n as a common p r o p e r t y good. S o c i e t y as a whole may be w i l l i n g t o pay a g r e a t d e a l to 14 safeguard the q u a l i t y of i t s waters or the a e s t h e t i c environment of i t s urban sho r e l a n d s , but because land i s a l l o c a t e d by the market, too much land may be a l l o c a t e d to those uses with u n d e s i r a b l e negative s p i l l o v e r s . The f o u r t h market f a i l u r e concerns the need t c c o n s i d e r values i n a n t i c i p a t i o n c f use. In the F r a s e r shorelands, as w e l l as i n much of north America, we have grown accustomed to making d e c i s i o n s l a r g e l y i n terms of present day c r i t e r i a . However, the need to c o n s i d e r the f u t u r e i s becoming more r e a d i l y apparent as p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t i e s i n c r e a s e and the permanence of man's e f f e c t on the land i s r e a l i z e d . Once a p a r c e l of shoreland i s taken out of i t s n a t u r a l s t a t e ( i e . developed), then subsequent owners must pay not only the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s i n h e r e n t i n i t s l o c a t i o n a l and s i t e advantages, they must a l s o pay the c a p i t a l i z e d value c f any improvements t h a t a p r i o r owner had put on the land. In a d d i t i o n they may have t o overcome any negative e x t e r n a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d with the previous use. Because a r e c r e a t i o n s i t e r e l i e s on i t s n a t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i t w i l l probably be i m p o s s i b l e , or a t l e a s t very c o s t l y , t o convert c e r t a i n types of urban or i n d u s t r i a l l a n d use back to a n a t u r a l r e c r e a t i o n use. The o r i g i n a l untouched appearance can never be r e c a p t u r e d . Because the market has no way of a s s i g n i n g a p r i c e to the " o p t i o n v a l u e " of p r e s e r v a t i o n , i n cases where present demands are not g r e a t shoreland may be a l l o c a t e d to users which do not take advantage of a p a r t i c u l a r l o c a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e such as a s h o r e l i n e . Subsequent users of s h o r e l i n e land may be p e n a l i z e d 15 u n n e c e s s a r i l y i n that goods may not be p r o v i d e d , be more expensive, or be i n l e s s demand i f they were not provided at the s h o r e l i n e . Obvious examples i n c l u d e f i s h i n g and swimming. Thus i t has been demonstrated t h a t p r i v a t e markets are u n l i k e l y to p r o v i d e r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s on the F r a s e r shorelands i n a manner which i s c o n s i s t e n t with s o c i e t y ' s w i l l i n g n e s s - t o - p a y f o r such f a c i l i t i e s . Because parks and r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s have not been provided i n s i g n i f i c a n t numbers by p r i v a t e i n d u s t r y , e i t h e r on the shorelands or elswhere i n the r e g i o n , governments have had to i n t e r v e n e f o r t h i s purpose. The r o l e of government agencies w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n the next s e c t i o n . B. PUBLIC INSTITUTIONAL REGULATION A number of shortcomings of the market mechanism have teen i l l u s t r a t e d , and i t i s c l e a r t h a t extra-market a c t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l i n order to minimize the e f f e c t s of these l i m i t a t i o n s . T h i s i s not a new r e v e l a t i o n as i t can be observed that governments have already i n i t i a t e d s e v e r a l r e g u l a t o r y measures. The main c o n s t r a i n t s are harbour a u t h o r i t y r e g u l a t i o n s , and r e g i o n a l and m u n i c i p a l zoning. They have not r e p l a c e d the market, they have onl y imposed broad l i m i t s w i t h i n which i t can f u n c t i o n f r e e l y and o f t e n very w e l l . The purpose of t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l be to examine the j u r i s d i c t i o n a l arrangements which have evolved to c o n s t r a i n the market mechanism, and p c i n t out any l i m i t a t i o n s which might i m p a i r e f f e c t i v e p u b l i c a c t i o n . 16 The p e c u l i a r nature of shorelands at the water-land i n t e r f a c e has been a major determinant i n the e v o l u t i o n of p u b l i c r e g u l a t o r y bodies. Because of t h i s , t r a d i t i o n a l m u n i c i p a l and r e g i o n a l zoning has been supplemented by two F e d e r a l bodies — the F r a s e r B i v e r Harbour Commission on the Main Arm, and the North F r a s e r Harbour commission on the North Arm. The powers granted to these bodies make them the most important of a l l bodies and they w i l l be d i s c u s s e d f i r s t . F o l l o w i n g t h a t a number of P r o v i n c i a l S t a t u t e s w i l l be mentioned, and the r o l e s of r e g i o n a l and l o c a l governments reviewed. The F e d e r a l government has s e t up a s e r i e s of i n d i v i d u a l l y i n c o r p o r a t e d Harbour Commissions to a d m i n i s t e r the property of p u b l i c harbours which had been t r a n s f e r r e d from the p r o v i n c e s to the F e d e r a l Government at the time of C o n f e d e r a t i o n . As a r e s u l t of t h i s the f e d e r a l government has two l e v e r s cf power with r e s p e c t to harbours - p r o p r i e t a r y r i g h t s and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . The harbours c o n t r o l l e d by the f e d e r a l government were those used as such a t the time of B r i t i s h Columbia's e n t r y i n t o C o n f e d e r a t i o n ; and only the p a r t s of each that were a c t u a l l y i n use were t r a n s f e r e d . F e d e r a l ownership of land i n c l u d e s the r i v e r bed and i n t e r t i d a l f o r e s h o r e (LaForest: 1969). There were s e v e r a l problems i n s p e c i f y i n g what was and was not a harbour i n 1871, but the s i t u a t i o n was c l a r i f i e d somewhat by the S i x Harbours Agreement i n 1924 which c l a s s i f i e d Sew Westminster as a f e d e r a l l y owned harbour. Future e x t e n s i o n s , however, remained the property of the p r o v i n c i a l 1 7 government. T h i s accounts f o r such anomalies as the North F r a s e r Harbour Commission which i s a f e d e r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e agency with c o n t r o l over p r o v i n c i a l l y owned la n d . The Harbour Commission Act (S.C: 1964: s.2) j o i n e d the a c t s which o r i g i n a l l y i n c o r p o r a t e d both of the Commissions and r e s t a t e d t h e i r powers. Because they are r e s p o n s i b l e to the M i n i s t r y of Transport, and o n l y two r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from a d j o i n i n g m u n i c i p a l i t i e s are appointed (by t h e i r c o u n c i l s ) , the Commissions enjoy a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount of independence from l o c a l j u r i s d i c t i o n s and l o c a l p u b l i c sentiment. The powers of the Commissions are e x t e n s i v e and they i n c l u d e : "the r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l of use and development of a l l l a n d , b u i l d i n g s and property w i t h i n the l i m i t s of the harbour, and a l l docks, wharves and eguipment e r e c t e d or used i n connection t h e r e w i t h . " In a d d i t i o n the Commissions are empowered to a c q u i r e land, b u i l d wharves and s t r u c t u r e s , and t o s e l l and l e a s e the same; and i f they see the need, the power to e x p r o p r i a t e was a l s o granted ( S . C : 1964-1965: s. 9 and 19). The Commissions' most important r o l e c o ncerning the study area i s t h e i r power to l e a s e underwater land and water l o t s under t h e i r j u r i s d i c t i o n r e g a r d l e s s of the l e v e l of government owning the l a n d . The execution of t h i s power i s very complex, however, as the Commission must o f t e n l e a s e land which i t does not own i n order that i t may r e - l e a s e i t to p r o s p e c t i v e u s e r s . Any i n d u s t r y wanting to use f o r e s h o r e or adjacent water areas f o r l o g booming or barge b e r t h s must l e a s e i t from the Commission. The powers of the Commissions are vast with r e s p e c t to 18 shor e l a n d s , and they have the power to s e t a s i d e lands which they own f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l use, and to designate other shorelands f o r these uses as w e l l . The Commissions, however, have g e n e r a l l y not taken such measures and have r e l i e d cn municipal and r e g i o n a l zoning t o determine upland use. Eut, i f they f e l t i t was i n the p u b l i c i n t e r e s t they could o v e r r i d e l o c a l zoning o r d i n a n c e s . T h e i r c o n t r o l over f o r e s h o r e and adjacent waters i s ab s o l u t e on lands ( i n c l u d i n g water l o t s ) which tbey cwn, and n e a r l y so on P r o v i n c i a l lands which they a d m i n i s t e r . Most important of t h e i r powers with r e s p e c t to r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i s t h e i r a b i l i t y to l e a s e and r e g u l a t e water l o t s f o r l o g s t o r a g e . The Commissions• p o l i c y i n t h i s regard has been to grant l o g storage l e a s e s t c anyone who can secure the consent c f the upland owner. The upland owner's permission i s r e g u i r e d i f log s s t o r e d adjacent t o upland property impede the r i g h t of access to the property by water ( i e . , i f l o g s are s t o r e d above or i n c l o s e proximity t o the low water mark). T h i s need f o r the p r o s p e c t i v e tenant to secure the upland owners r i p a r i a n r i g h t s has l e d to the s i t u a t i o n whereby f o r e s t companies have purchased long narrow s t r i p s of s h o r e l i n e upland to a v o i d c o m p l i c a t i o n s and payments a r i s i n g from these t r a n s f e r s . However, while t h i s has been the Commissions 1 p o l i c y i n the past, they do have the d i s c r e t i o n a r y power not t o grant l e a s e s i n s i t u a t i o n s where i t may be d e s i r a b l e t o preserve water access f o r shoreland r e c r e a t i o n a l use. While the powers of the Harbour Commissions are g r e a t , they were not s e t f o r the s p e c i f i c f u n c t i o n of p r o v i d i n g r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s on shorelands. Because they are r e s p o n s i b l e f o r 19 generating s u f f i c i e n t revenues to maintain themselves, they have been put i n a p o s i t i o n of having to favour uses which s i l l produce higher revenues through the g r a n t i n g of shoreland l e a s e s f o r l o g s t o r a g e , docks or other i n s t a l l a t i o n s . As a r e s u l t i t i s i n t h e i r i n t e r e s t to encourage development and uses which can pay them the most f o r these lands. I t may be that they are f i n a n c i a l l y unable to c o n s i d e r the p r o v i s i o n of r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , and t h a t i f they are to manage harbours so as to overcome market f a i l u r e s and provide c o l l e c t i v e goods which are i n the p u b l i c i n t e r e s t , they may need a l t e r n a t i v e sources of revenue. The Province has a number of j u r i s d i c t i o n a l l e v e r s . Although the Harbour Commissions are paramount over P r o v i n c i a l a u t h o r i t y on lands which the P r o v i n c e owns, i t can place some l i m i t s on the Commissions' powers. The Land Act p r o t e c t s t i d a l land and f o r e s h o r e from preemption and a l i e n a t i o n . By v i r t u e of t h i s Act, the P r o v i n c e has some l i m i t s over the Commissions i n that f i l l i n g i n the f o r e s h o r e i n p r o v i n c i a l l y owned areas would not, f o r example, be c o n s i d e r e d a r i g h t of j u r i s d i c t i o n (B.S.B.C.: 1960: c. 206). A second important P r o v i n c i a l S t a t u t e i s the Park Act (B.S.E.C.: 1965: c. 31). By a u t h o r i t y of t h i s l e g i s l a t i o n the Lieutenant-Governor i n C o u n c i l may e s t a b l i s h any area of Crown Land as a park, a r e c r e a t i o n area, or a n a t u r a l conservancy area. Because these must be cn Crown Land the Act a l s o permits the a c g u i s i t i o n by purchase or e x p r o p r i a t i o n , lands which i t would l i k e f o r these purposes. The P r o v i n c e , however, has not u t i l i z e d t h i s Act i n the study area to date. 20 The most powerful p r o v i n c i a l l e g i s l a t i o n i s the Land Commission Act (B.S.B.C.: 1973: c. 46). T h i s Act empowers a commission to preserve a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d , preserve green b e l t land, and preserve park l a n d f o r r e c r e a t i o n . Although the weight o f h i s l e g i s l a t i o n has only been f e l t with r e s p e c t to a g r i c u l t u r a l land so f a r , i t i s p o t e n t i a l l y one of the s t r o n g e s t means of p r e s e r v i n g shoreland r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . The f o c u s of the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t ' s power i s i n establishment of a r e g i o n a l p l a n . Once enacted by the Regional Board, the Regional p l a n governs a l l land use w i t h i n the d i s t r i c t ; and " n e i t h e r the Regional Board nor the C o u n c i l nor the T r u s t e e s of a member m u n i c i p a l i t y , as the case may be, s h a l l enact any p r o v i s i o n or i n i t i a t e any works which would impair or impede the u l t i m a t e r e a l i z a t i o n of the o b j e c t i v e s o f the r e g i o n a l plan or any pa r t or p a r t s t h e r e o f " (B.C.: 1971). The O f f i c a l Regional Plan was adopted i n 1966 by the Lower Mainland Regional P l a n n i n g Board, each of i t s 28 member m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , and the P r o v i n c i a l Government. When the Board was disbanded i n 1969 r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the Plan was t r a n s f e r e d to the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t and three other r e g i o n a l d i s t r i c t s i n the r e s t of the Lower Mainland area. The Plan was conceived of as a p o l i c y framework w i t h i n which l o c a l p o l i c i e s c o u l d be formulated, and a "Current Stage Plan Map" was drawn which designated a l l land as being one of f i v e p o s s i b l e types of "development a r e a " — urban, r u r a l , i n d u s t r i a l , park, and r e s e r v e , while the Plan i s a powerful document i t i s l i m i t e d with r e s p e c t t o the shorelands because i t 21 o n l y r e g u l a t e s u p l a n d u s e , b e c a u s e t h e H a r b o u r C o m m i s s i o n s h a v e d i r e c t p o w e r s t o r e g u l a t e s h o r e l a n d s t r u c t u r e s , a n d b e c a u s e t h e y a r e s u b j e c t t o P r o v i n c i a l l a n d u s e r e g u l a t i o n . T h e B a r b o u r C o m m i s s i o n s , h o w e v e r , h a v e r e s p e c t e d i t w i t h r e g a r d t o u p l a n d u s e , a n d i t i s l i k e l y t h e y w i l l c o n t i n u e t o d o s o . A k e y p u r p o s e o f t h e P l a n w a s t h e n e e d t o p r o v i d e c e r t a i n s e r v i c e s a n d f a c i l i t i e s w h i c h w e r e r e g i o n a l i n n a t u r e a n d c o u l d n o t , o r w o u l d n o t , b e p r o v i d e d b y t h e i n d i v i d u a l m e m b e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . A n i m p o r t a n t f u n c t i o n w a s t h e p r o v i s i o n o f p a r k s a s i t w a s n o t e d , " s e v e r a l p u b l i c l y o w n e d m a j o r p a r k s i t e s a p p e a r l i k e l y t o r e m a i n u n d e v e l o p e d b e c a u s e , u n d e r s t a n d a b l y , t h e f e w m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n v o l v e d c a n n o t s e e w h y t h e y s h o u l d d e v e l o p t h e m l a r g e l y f o r t h e b e n e f i t o f t h e c i t i z e n s o f m a n y o t h e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s " ( L . M . R . P . B . : 1 9 6 3 ) . H o w e v e r , t h e P l a n h a s n o t r e c o g n i z e d t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s a s r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , o r h a s s e e n s h o r e l a n d s a s s e r v i n g a m o r e i m p o r t a n t u s e , a n d h a s d e s i g n a t e d t h e l a r g e s t p a r t o f t h e m f o r i n d u s t r i a l u s e . I f t h e D i s t r i c t * s o u t l o o k s h o u l d c h a n g e , t h e P l a n c a n b e a m e n d e d b y a t w o - t h i r d s m a j o r i t y o f m e m b e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s , a n d s o m e s m a l l s h o r e l a n d a m e n d m e n t s h a v e b e e n m a d e . N o h e a r i n g s a r e r e q u i r e d . A l t h o u g h t h e a m e n d m e n t s w h i c h h a v e b e e n m a d e h a v e n o t s p e c i f i c a l l y b e e n t o e s t a b l i s h p a r k s , l o c a l p a r k u s e s a r e p e r m i t t e d i n t h o s e w h i c h h a v e b e e n r e d e s i g n a t e d a s u r b a n u s e s f r o m i n d u s t r i a l . T h e e i g h t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s a d j o i n i n g t h e s t u d y a r e a h a v e c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n t r o l o v e r l a n d u s e d e s p i t e t h e l i m i t s p l a c e d o v e r t h e m b y t h e B e g j . o n a l P l a n a n d t h e p r o v i n c i a l r e g u l a t i o n s 22 and f e d e r a l agencies mentioned. T h e i r c o n t r o l i s by v i r t u e of l o c a l zoning, c o n t r o l over land s u b d i v i s i o n , and the power to enact b u i l d i n g r e g u l a t i o n s . Although the blanket i n d u s t r i a l d e s i g n a t i o n i s a severe r e s t r i c t i o n , the power to zone has s t i l l been q u i t e important i n t h a t land could be r e t a i n e d f o r "lower or d e r " use such as a g r i c u l t u r e i f development was not d e s i r e d i n c e r t a i n a r e a s . C o n t r o l over s u b d i v i s i o n i s important i n that i t governs the area, shape, dimensions and alignment of land which has an impact on the type of land use and o f t e n the e f f i c i e n c y of s h o r e l i n e use depending on the width of p a r c e l s c r e a t e d . An a d d i t i o n a l m u n i c i p a l power i s i n the extension of s e r v i c e s which c r e a t e s an e f f e c t i v e development c o n t r o l . C. SUMMARY I t has been demonstrated t h a t p r i v a t e markets w i l l tend to u n d e r - a l l o c a t e F r a s e r shoreland to outdoor r e c r e a t i o n a l uses because they do not r e f l e c t t r u e p r e f e r e n c e s f c r these c o l l e c t i v e goods. A d d i t i o n a l market i m p e r f e c t i o n s were noted with the d e c r e a s i n g - c o s t nature of these f a c i l i t i e s , with the i n a b i l i t y of market p r i c e s to account f o r e x t e r n a l e f f e c t s , and with the b i a s towards present v a l u e s . Because of these market f a i l u r e s p r i v a t e i n d u s t r y has not provided r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n the study area and governments have had to i n t e r v e n e . The powers of s e v e r a l i n s t i t u t i o n a l bodies with a u t h o r i t y to e s t a b l i s h r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s were reviewed, and numerous l e g i s l a t i v e avenues were found t c be open 2 3 f o r t h i s purpose. Although the Harbour Commissions, the most powerful a g e n c i e s , are cot s p e c i f i c a l l y designed t c overcome market f a i l u r e s and provide r e c r e a t i o n a l areas, they have tended to f o l l o w the p o l i c i e s of the r e g i o n a l and municipal governments i n t h i s matter, and are l i k e l y t o continue to do so. Although s e v e r a l p u b l i c agencies are empowered to e s t a b l i s h parks and n a t u r a l r e s e r v e s i t has been observed t h a t very few of these have been s e t a s i d e i n the F r a s e r shorelands. I t may be t h a t the l a c k of a c t i o n i s a r e s u l t of i n s u f f i c i e n t i n f o r m a t i o n as to the r e c r e a t i o n p o t e n t i a l and the i n d u s t r i a l needs f o r Fra s e r s h o r e l a n d s . Because no s y s t e m a t i c assessment has been made an e v a l u a t i o n of s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s would be very u s e f u l to l o c a l d e c i s i o n makers. T h i s i n f o r m a t i o n could be u s e f u l t o s e v e r a l bodies and the f o l l o w i n g a n a l y s i s w i l l not be d i r e c t e d at any one government agency. 20 C h a p t e r T h r e e P o t e n t i a l V a l u e f o r R e c r e a t i o n a l P u r p o s e s T h e F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s h a v e b e e n r e f e r r e d t o a s V a n c o u v e r ' s " o t h e r w a t e r f r o n t " i n a r e c e n t n e w s p a p e r a r t i c l e w h i c h p l e a d e d f o r p u b l i c a c t i o n t o s a v e a p o r t i o n f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l a n d a e s t h e t i c p l e a s u r e ( L e i r i n : 1 9 7 3 ) . T h i s d e s c r i p t i o n i s r e i n f o r c e d i n d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h c o m m u n i t y l e a d e r s a n d p l a n n e r s a n d i t a p p e a r s t o b e t h e o u t c o m e o f a p e r c e p t i o n w h i c h h a s b e e n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c t h r o u g h o u t t h e F r a s e r ' s h i s t o r y . H u t c h i s o n , i n h i s h i s t o r y o f t h e F r a s e r , n o t e s t h a t " g r e a t m o m e n t s c n t h e r i v e r l a c k e d a s p e c t a t o r w h o c o u l d g i v e t h e m p e r m a n e n t l i f e " ( H u t c h i s o n : 1 9 5 0 ) . H o w e v e r , e v i d e n c e o f a c h a n g i n g o u t l o o k h a s b e e n c i t e d a t t h e o u t s e t a n d m o r e w i l l f o l l o w . F o r a s t u d y o f s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s o f p r e s e r v i n g s h o r e l a n d s i n t h e L o w e r F r a s e r f o r r e c r e a t i o n u s e s t c b e o f p r a c t i c a l v a l u e i t m u s t d e a l w i t h s p e c i f i c s i t e s . T h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s c h a p t e r i s t o i d e n t i f y t h e s i t e s o f p o t e n t i a l v a l u e f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r p o s e s . H o e f f o r t i s m a d e t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e s e l a n d s t o r e c r e a t i o n p u r p o s e s w o u l d i n f a c t r e s u l t i n t h e h i g h e s t a n d b e s t u s e o f s h o r e l a n d s . 2 5 a. RECREATIONAL LAND INVENTORY In undertaking an inv e n t o r y of p o t e n t i a l s i t e s along the Fr a s e r i t i s u s e f u l to examine p r e v i o u s attempts i n c r d e r to b e n e f i t from s i m i l a r experiences i n developing a methodology f o r gath e r i n g and o r g a n i z i n g data. A review of the l i t e r a t u r e found i t t o be n e i t h e r voluminous nor s o p h i s t i c a t e d , and many land resource i n v e n t o r i e s are l i t t e r e d with a r b i t r a r y standards and perso n a l value judgements. Yet, i t i s a l l that i s a v a i l a b l e at the c u r r e n t s t a t e of the a r t . The procedure f o l l o w e d , t h e r e f o r e , attempts to apply t o the study area the b e t t e r p a r t s of known techniques. F o l l o w i n g a review o f b a s i c terms, " l a n d " and " r e c r e a t i o n " , the d i s c u s s i o n examines the processes of in v e n t o r y and e v a l u a t i o n , and o u t l i n e s the methodology used. The main i n t e r e s t i s i n land which can be used i n i t s n a t u r a l s t a t e , or with a minimum of m o d i f i c a t i o n . No attempt i s made to c o n s i d e r p o t e n t i a l areas f o r uses i n v o l v i n g major c o n s t r u c t i o n such as t e n n i s c o u r t s or marinas. I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of a p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n area does not a u t o m a t i c a l l y imply that i t should be developed as a r e g i o n a l or p r o v i n c i a l park. The term " l a n d " i s used to r e f e r to a v a r i e t y c f n a t u r a l resource a t t r i b u t e s i n a " . . . p r o f i l e from the atmosphere above the s u r f a c e down to some meters below the s u r f a c e " (Stewart: 1968: 1). The p a r t i c u l a r a t t r i b u t e s of a given p a r c e l , such as c l i m a t e , l a n d form and v e g e t a t i o n , are f i x e d i n l o c a t i o n and extent and, t h e r e f o r e , must be e x p l o i t e d where they are s i t u a t e d . In order to assess the type, g u a n t i t y and g u a l i t y of each a t t r i b u t e a d e f i n a b l e geographic u n i t i s needed. 26 S e v e r a l commentators have attempted to d e f i n e r e c r e a t i o n . T y p i c a l d e f i n i t i o n s i n c l u d e : " a c t i v i t y undertaken because one wants to do i t " (Clawson: 1966), " p l e a s u r a b l e and c o n s t r u c t i v e e xpenditures of l e i s u r e time" ( H i l l s : 1961: 14), and " v o l u n t a r y a c t i v i t y i n d u l g e d i n without e x t e r n a l compulsion which r e s u l t s i n the r e v i t a l i z a t i o n (or r e c r e a t i o n ) of body and mind" (Far i n a : 1961: 944). I t would be f r u i t l e s s here to pursue a more p r e c i s e d e f i n i t i o n because of the h i g h l y s u b j e c t i v e manner i n which r e c r e a t i o n i s experienced. One a d d i t i o n a l g u a l i f i c a t i o n i s to be kept i n mind, however, and t h a t i s the outdoor nature of the a c t i v i t y . In t h i s sense, only a c t i v i t i e s which are dependent cn the p h y s i o g r a p h i c and e c o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the land are of i n t e r e s t i n t h i s study. Because no p r e c i s e d e f i n i t i o n of outdoor r e c r e a t i o n e x i s t s , i t w i l l be d i f f i c u l t t o devise r e c r e a t i o n resource a n a l y s i s methods based on p r e c i s e knowledge of the land r e s o u r c e needs of p a r t i c u l a r r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s . While the nature c f a given land u n i t may suggest c e r t a i n uses, there may s t i l l be a c o n f l i c t of i n d i v i d u a l p r e f e r e n c e s . P e i l u c k (1967: 5) i l l u s t r a t e s the dilemma w e l l i n the f o l l o w i n g passage: "Thus i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t a l e n g t h of s h o r e l i n e could be locked upon as a p u b l i c campground by a government agency, a l u c r a t i v e c o t t a g e s u b d i v i s i o n by a p r i v a t e developer, and a wilderness area by a p r e s e r v a t i o n i s t . " The f a i l u r e to r e c o g n i z e the d i s t i n c t i o n between i n v e n t o r y and e v a l u a t i o n i s one of the most common shortcomings c f past attempts at resource a n a l y s i s . The i n v e n t o r y stage e s s e n t i a l l y 27 c o n s i s t s of a s e r i e s of o b j e c t i v e measurements, while the e v a l u a t i o n stage g e n e r a l l y i n v o l v e s an i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the data i n terms of s p e c i f i c l a n d uses. I f we c o n s i d e r a t y p i c a l i n v e n t o r y v a r i a b l e such as topographic s l o p e , a number of e v a l u a t i o n schemes have been a p p l i e d i n order to s p e c i f y land c a p a b i l i t y f o r u r b a n i z a t i o n . Because the c u t - o f f p o i n t f o r u r b a n i z a t i o n may range anywhere between 9 and 45 degrees, the s e l e c t i o n and d i s p l a y of i n f o r m a t i o n must be done sc as to i n d i c a t e i t s e v a l u a t i v e nature. Numerous examples of past s t u d i e s , however, l o s e s i g h t of t h i s d i s t i n c t i o n and i n c o r r e c t l y l a b e l t h e i r data i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s as i n v e n t o r i e s . Thus S t e i n i t z (1969) r i g h t l y c oncludes, i t i s u s u a l l y not the data i n v e n t o r y , but the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the data which d i s t i n g u i s h e s methods. It i s i n s t r u c t i v e to separate the processes i n v o l v e d i n land resource a n a l y s i s i n order to c l a r i f y the matter f u r t h e r . I t w i l l be u s e f u l t o breakdown the process of land c a p a b i l i t y a n a l y s i s i n t o three d i s t i n c t phases; these have been l a b e l l e d as " i n d i v i d u a t i o n " , " d e s c r i p t i o n " and " c l a s s i f i c a t i o n " by C o n k l i n (1960). I n d i v i d u a t i o n i s the f i r s t stage because land e x i s t s i n a continuous plane and must be broken down i n t o i d e n t i f i a b l e u n i t s . D e s c r i p t i o n i s simply a l i s t i n g or i n v e n t o r y of a s s o c i a t e d a t t r i b u t e s , and c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i n v o l v e s grouping a c c o r d i n g to a set of c r i t i e r i a f o r what to recognize and what t o i g n o r e . The term c l a s s i f i c a t i o n as Co n k l i n uses i t i s analagous t o the term e v a l u a t i o n used here. Two methods of i n d i v i d u a t i o n were co n s i d e r e d . The f i r s t , which was used by the Canada Land Inventory, i n v o l v e s a 28 s c i e n t i f i c breakdown of the landscape based upcn c l i m a t e and landform. Because t h i s produced only very l a r g e land u n i t s , o f t e n encompassing s e v e r a l miles of s h o r e l i n e , a second method based on the United S t a t e s N a t i o n a l F o r e s t R e c r e a t i o n Survey (United S t a t e s . : 1959) was adapted f o r the study area. The F o r e s t S e r v i c e method was designed as a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n procedure f o r determining the e x i s t i n g and p o t e n t i a l amount, kind, g u a l i t y and l o c a t i o n of r e c r e a t i o n r e s o u r c e s on land administered by the F o r e s t S e r v i c e . The f i r s t step i n t h e i r procedure was to separate the landscape i n t o two c l a s s e s , each with a number of s u b c l a s s e s . In the f i r s t group, l a b e l l e d "development s i t e s " , t h e i r s u b c l a s s e s were based on a number of landscape f e a t u r e s which made an area amenable to such a c t i v i t i e s as b o a t i n g , swimming and f i s h i n g . In t h e i r second group, l a b e l l e d " d i s p e r s e d r e c r e a t i o n areas", they i n c l u d e d wilderness areas, h i k i n g areas and so on. T h i s approach can be r e a d i l y u t i l i z e d i n the study area as two types of r e c r e a t i o n a l use of shoreland became apparent i n the i n i t i a l f i e l d w o r k . The f i r s t i s the development s i t e type which i s w e l l s u i t e d to some s p e c i f i c r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t y or s e t s of a c t i v i t e s ; these are renamed "major s i t e s " f o r t h i s study. The second type i s the d i s p e r s e d a c t i v i t i e s which are t y p i c a l l y s u i t e d to s c e n i c d r i v e s or walkways. O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n the d i s p e r s e d s i t e s need not be c o n f i n e d to n a t u r a l f e a t u r e s i n the sense that such man-made f e a t u r e s as f i s h i n g docks or s m a l l boatworks are not i n c o n s i s t e n t with the o v e r a l l type of use. A t h i r d category 2 9 w h i c h i s p e c u l i a r t o t h e F r a s e r h a s b e e n e s t a b l i s h e d , a n d i t a r i s e s f r o m t h e u s e o f v e r y s m a l l l o o k o u t p o i n t s o r s a n d b a r s , o f t e n a t t h e e n d s o f c i t y s t r e e t s , b y t h e o c c a s s i o n a l p i c n i c k e r o r f i s h e r m a n . T h e s e w i l l b e l a b e l l e d " s m a l l s i t e s " a n d d e a l t w i t h s e p a r a t e l y . H a v i n g d e v e l o p e d a m e a n s o f i n d i v i d u a t i o n b a s e d c n t h r e e t y p e s o f s i t e s , m a j o r , d i s p e r s e d , a n d s m a l l , t h e n e x t p h a s e i s t h e i n v e n t o r y . B e c a u s e d i s c u s s i o n s o f i n v e n t o r y n a t u r a l l y l e a d i n t o e v a l u a t i o n i t w i l l b e n e c e s s a r y t o d i s c u s s t h e m t o g e t h e r . A k e y i s s u e t o b e r e s o l v e d i s w h e t h e r l a n d a n a l y s i s s h o u l d b e u n d e r t a k e n f r o m a m o r p h o l o g i c a l o r a f u n c t i o n a l p o i n t o f v i e w . C o m m e n t a t o r s s u c h a s C h r i s t i a n ( 1 9 5 9 ) a r g u e t h a t b e c a u s e l a n d u s e p r o b l e m s a n d c o n c e p t s o f b e s t f o r m o f l a n d u s e c h a n g e a s t h e e c o n o m y c h a n g e s a n d m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n i s g a i n e d , i t i s h i g h l y d e s i r a b l e t h a t r e s o u r c e a n a l y s i s b e b a s e d o n t h e f u n d a m e n t a l q u a l i t i e s o f t h e l a n d . B e c a u s e t h e s e a r e i n d e p e n d e n t c f p r e s e n t k n o w l e d g e o f l a n d u t i l i z a t i o n t h e i n v e n t o r y w i l l b e a c c u r a t e a t a l l p o i n t s i n t i m e , o p p o n e n t s a r g u e t h a t i n v e n t o r i e s n e e d t o b e o r i e n t e d t o a s e t o f s p e c i f i c u s e s i n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y r e l e v a n t r e s o u r c e a t t r i b u t e s . C h a p i n ( 1 9 6 5 : 3 4 3 ) f o r e x a m p l e , s t a t e s t h a t r e s o u r c e i n v e n t o r i e s m u s t b e c a r e f u l l y t a i l o r e d t o t h e n e e d s o f t h e t a s k a t h a n d . I t i s e v i d e n t , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t a c c u r a c y c a n b e s t b e a s s u r e d i f a s t r i c t l y m o r p h o l o g i c a l a p p r o a c h i s t a k e n . H o w e v e r , s o m e a m o u n t o f f u n c t i o n a l e v a l u a t i o n i s r e g u i r e d i n t h e c h o i c e o f w h i c h l a n d a t t r i b u t e s a r e i m p o r t a n t t o p a r t i c u l a r r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i f t h e r e s u l t i n g i n v e n t o r y i s t o b e u s e f u l . B e c a u s e 30 the exact needs of s p e c i f i c r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s are seldom c l e a r , i t i s i n e v i t a b l e t h a t some degree of s u b j e c t i v i t y be present. F u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n of procedures f o r e v a l u a t i n g the importance and q u a l i t y of each r e s o u r c e a t t r i b u t e t c s p e c i f i c r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s found t h a t r e l i a b i l i t y decreased r a p i d l y with attempts to i n c r e a s e s p e c i f i c i t y . The most common method of e v a l u a t i o n i n v o l v e s the use of p o i n t r a t i n g systems to a s s i g n weighting f a c t o r s to each resource a t t r i b u t e , and m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of these by p o i n t s assigned to i n d i c a t e the q u a l i t y of each. The f i n a l a t t r i b u t e t o t a l s are then cumulated to y i e l d a c a p a b i l i t y r a t i n g number f o r a s i t e which can then be compared with other s i t e s . The main problem with using the r a t i n g numbers to compare s i t e s i s that d i f f e r e n t resource a t t r i b u t e s at each l o c a t i o n are compared a c c o r d i n g to an a r b i t r a r y s c a l e . I f the c r i t e r i a f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g the worth of each a t t r i b u t e are t o be a c c u r a t e , much more knowledge of user p r e f e r e n c e s than c u r r e n t l y e x i s t s i s e s s e n t i a l (for a d e t a i l e d review see S t e i n i t z : 1970). The c o n c l u s i o n of the i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n t o methods of i n v e n t o r y and e v a l u a t i o n was t h a t no w e l l r e f i n e d techniques have yet been d e v i s e d , and the best approach f o r t h i s study w i l l be to c o n f i n e the i n v e n t o r y to a g e n e r a l l e v e l . The Canada Land Inventory has been s u c c e s s f u l a t t h i s l e v e l and t h e i r approach can be e a s i l y modified f o r use along the F r a s e r . While the land was s u b d i v i d e d d i f f e r e n t l y the i n v e n t o r y of c a p a b i l i t y can be conducted i n a s i m i l a r manner. The c r i t e r i a f o r a number of p o s s i b l e r e c r e a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s were used d i r e c t l y , and any omissions were f i l l e d by r e f e r r i n g to s t u d i e s by Eelknap and 31 Furtado (1965), Brown (1971), and Lewis (1964)... Ho attempt w i l l be made to rank each s i t e s c a p a b i l i t y , and the C.L.I. p o i n t system based on i n t e n s i t y of use w i l l not be used. M o d i f i c a t i o n s f o r each type of s i t e mentioned w i l l be i n t r o d u c e d . Most of the i n v e n t o r y work i s c o n f i n e d t o the development s i t e s . The d i s p e r s e d r e c r e a t i o n a l s i t e s w i l l g e n e r a l l y c o n s i s t of areas s u i t e d to p l e a s u r e d r i v e s and a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n w i l l be made of each; the small s i t e s w i l l be given a s i m i l a r d e s c r i p t i v e treatment. The f o l l o w i n g w i l l l i s t the a c t i v i t i e s c o n s idered and d e s c r i b e the t y p i c a l areas s u i t e d to each. I t i s important to r e a l i z e t h a t none of the c a t e g o r i e s i s mutually e x c l u s i v e , and t h a t o f t e n the presence of one w i l l markedly improve the c a p a b i l i t y f o r another ( i . e . , o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r beachcombing w i l l enhance other beach a c t i v i t i e s ) . A n g l i n g . Shoreland p r o v i d i n g access to reaches of the r i v e r which are capable of s u s t a i n i n g s p o r t f i s h . F a c t o r s to be c o n s i d e r e d are width and topography of fo r e s h o r e or upland, depth, water g u a l i t y , flow and bottom c o n d i t i o n s . Beach A c t i v i t y . Shoreland which i s l e v e l to moderately s l o p i n g and predominately made up of sand or t i l l . The predominant use would be f o r sunbathing or p i c n i c k i n g . G e n e r a l l y the s i t e would be of s u f f i c i e n t width to accomodate p i c n i c t a b l e s and some amount of organized p a r k i n g . In some cases, wide s e c t i o n s of upland may be i n c l u d e d . B o a t i n g . Shorelands where road access and water conditions are suitable for launching small boats and canoes. Generally these w i l l be transportable by hand rather than from back-in type t r a i l e r s . A channel safe from turbulence, currents, cr major shipping, as well as proximity to in t e r e s t i n g islands or features, are factors. l S i £ b£2ibing. Shorelands which because of t i d a l or freshet conditions have tended to accumulate a good assortment of driftwood, or which possess rocks, minerals or vegetation that tends to a t t r a c t curious beachcombers or hikers. Often these areas may be quite narrow and somewhat inaccessible. Camping. Because of the urban nature of the waterway thi s a c t i v i t y w i l l occur r a r e l y . Generally i t w i l l have the same t r a i t s as the beach a c t i v i t y category, but with wider upland area suitable for construction of campsites. Cultural Patterns. Shorelands exhibiting unusual or varied c u l t u r a l landscapes. Examples may include f i s h i n g camps, settlement patterns, and farming a c t i v i t y . Viewing. Shorelands which o f f e r a prominent vantage point or good viewing opporunities. wide expanses of natural scenery or in t e r e s t i n g maritime commerce are t y p i c a l sights to be seen. W i l d l i f e . Shorelands which provide an opportunity tc either view from a distance, or actually move about in a wildfowl nesting area. Other natural f l o r a or fauna 3 3 may a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d . Information f o r a l l c l a s s e s of l a n d u n i t was gathered by means of a i r photos, maps, pr e v i o u s s t u d i e s , i n t e r v i e w s with knowledgeable r e c r e a t i o n i s t s , and f i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n s on land and by boat. A l i s t of sources i s provided i n Appendix I. In order to o r g a n i z e the i n f o r m a t i o n a c h e c k l i s t was devised f o r the development s i t e s (see Appendix I I ) . I t was based on the c r i t e r i a d e f i n e d and on the survey conducted p r i m a r i l y on the upper reaches of the B i v e r beyond Barnston I s l a n d by HcNah (1965). G e n e r a l l y , data were c o l l e c t e d p r e t a i n i n g to s i t e a t t r i b u t e s , a c c e s s i b i l i t y , c u r r e n t and p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n a l use, and c o n f l i c t s with other uses. In using t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , i t should be noted t h a t the a c c e s s a b i l i t y i n f o r m a t i o n and c o n f l i c t s i d e n t i f i e d are dynamic and, t h e r e f o r e , accurate o n l y at the time surveyed. B. INVENTORY RESULTS I f the g e n e r a l f i n d i n g s of the survey can be summarized i n a phrase, i t i s t h a t F r a s e r shorelands have a very good, though s p e c i a l i z e d , p o t e n t i a l f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l use. G e n e r a l l y , most s i t e s l a c k the glamorous appeal of the mountanous North Shore, but they do have the c a p a b i l i t y to s a t i s f y a l a r g e measure of l o c a l demand given improved access and the i m a g i n a t i v e p r o v i s i o n of r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l i t i e s . While waters are c o l d , f r e q u e n t l y s w i f t and t u r b u l e n t , and u n a t t r a c t i v e l y muddy, they do have an appeal to many as evidenced by observed use d u r i n g f i e l d s t u d i e s 3 4 i n the summer of 1973. The most a c t i v e uses at present are bar f i s h i n g , p i c n i c i n g and s c e n i c d r i v e s . (1) Major S i t e s A number of s p e c i f i c o b s e r v a t i o n s can be made concerning these s i t e s from a review of the i n f o r m a t i o n d i s p l a y e d i n Table One. The l o c a t i o n s of each can be seen i n F i g u r e Two. Beginning with the i n f o r m a t i o n i n the f i r s t s i x rows, the most common type of s i t e combines some area of upland with f o r e s h o r e . G e n e r a l l y , f o r e s h o r e areas tend t o be more important than upland, and i n ten s i t e s they were c l e a r l y the most important. Because the l e v e l of the t i d a l high water mark v a r i e s with the time of the year and the annual r u n o f f , the a c t u a l usable area w i l l vary. In most years the maximum exposed beach occurs i n middle t o l a t e summer. N a t u r a l l y , any p h y s i c a l development w i l l have to be e i t h e r p o r t a b l e ( i . e . , p i c n i c t a b l e s ) or above the high water mark; but, i n most cases, only a minimum of improvement i s needed beyond the p r o v i s i o n of a d d i t i o n a l parking areas. Hith the e x c e p t i o n of f i v e i s l a n d s , f o u r of which are a c c e s s i b l e only by boat, most of the s i t e s are a c c e s s i b l e by road. As f a r as i t c o u l d be determined the three s i t e s which were not i n s p e c t e d by c a r were a c c e s s i b l e by f o o t . In a l l cases where there were roads, a t l e a s t some parking c o u l d be found even i f i t was only along a wide shoulder, and i n a l l cases, there was s u f f i c i e n t space to i n c r e a s e the p a r k i n g a r e a . The assessment of the p o s s i b l i t y of accommodating a d d i t o n a l v e h i c l e s 35 was more important than o r i g i n a l l y a n t i c i p a t e d because very few of the s i t e s were near a l a r g e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n which could e a s i l y walk to the r i v e r . as Table One shows, most s i t e s were surrounded by a g r i c u l t u r a l , vacant, or i n d u s t r i a l l a n d . H h i l e p r o x i m i t y to r e s i d e n t i a l areas ( i . e . , w i t h i n walking d i s t a n c e ) was only noted i n three cases, t h i s may be misleading because land near a number of s i t e s may be developed f o r housing i n the near f u t u r e , a l s o , a l a r g e number of b i c y c l e r i d e r s were observed d u r i n g f i e l d s t u d i e s . r The i n f o r m a t i o n on the use observed and i n t e r e s t expressed was i n c l u d e d p r i m a r i l y t o show the source of data. I t i s notable t h a t i n almost every case the s i t e has been mentioned by at l e a s t one r e p o r t or informant, or e l s e use was a c t u a l l y observed during f i e l d s t u d i e s . T h i s would appear t c suggest t h a t concern has been f a i r l y i n t e n s e on the whole, but t h a t i t has only been d i r e c t e d towards the p r e s e r v a t i o n of s i n g l e s i t e s r a t h e r than the o v e r a l l r e c r e a t i o n p o t e n t i a l of the s h o r e l a n d s . The remaining rows note the p o t e n t i a l of each s i t e to accommodate the e i g h t a c t i v i t i e s l i s t e d e a r l i e r . C l e a r l y the most important r e c r e a t i o n a l p u r s u i t i s a n g l i n g . Ear f i s h i n g was found to be important at a l l but three s i t e s , and at seven s i t e s i t was found to be the only major a c t i v i t y . These corresponded almost p e r f e c t l y with the s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d as f o r e s h o r e o r i e n t e d . From d i s c u s s i o n s with fishermen i t was concluded t h a t almost every reach of the r i v e r o f f e r s some c p p o r t u i t y f o r f i s h i n g , and t h a t fishermen w i l l f i s h almost anywhere they can. Beach a c t i v i t y was the next most important category with a 36 t o t a l of nineteen s i t e s . These were u s u a l l y i n areas where s u i t a b l e upland areas were a v a i l a b l e f o r the p r o v i s i o n cf p i c n i c s i t e s , play a r e a s , washrooms and p a r k i n g . S i n c e most were a l s o good f i s h i n g s i t e s there i s c o n s i d e r a b l e scope f o r developing a number of parks which are s u i t a b l e f o r p i c n i c k e r s , fishermen and sun b a t h e r s . Boating was the t h i r d most important a c t i v i t y with a t o t a l of 17 s u i t a b l e s i t e s . Many of these s i t e s are f r e q u e n t l y used f o r l a u n c h i n g s m a l l boats and cances, and a l l c o n t a i n g e n t l y s l o p i n g bars which are w e l l adapted to t h e i r use. Because nine of the s i t e s were not a c c e s s i b l e by c a r , and f i v e of these were i s l a n d s , boating i s the on l y means of access as well as an important a c t i v i t y . The i s l a n d s were found to be e a s i l y approached by boat and g e n e r a l l y s u i t a b l e f o r a n g l i n g cr beach a c t i v i t y . There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e scope f o r improving some cf them i n order to accommodate the f a s t growing numbers c f boaters i n the study area. The remaining c a t e g o r i e s were g e n e r a l l y found t c be sup p o r t i n g a c t i v i t i e s r a t h e r than primary uses. Beachcombing added c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r e s t i n a t h i r d of the cases, and notable c u l t u r a l p a t t e r n s were observed n e a r l y as o f t e n . O p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r viewing were s l i g h t l y more important and w i l d l i f e areas much l e s s so. A n o t i c e a b l e tendency f o r some s i t e s t o monopolize these a c t i v i t i e s was noted, and i n t h a t sense s i t e s 1,2,3,5,12,13,14,15,17,20,22,24,30,31, and 32 can be i d e n t i f i e d as key major s i t e s w i t h i n the study area. While a l l of the s i t e s mentioned are c o n s i d e r e d to be important, these s i t e s are 37 c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i a b l e a s t h e m o s t v a l u a b l e . I n t e r e s t h a s b e e n e x p r e s s e d i n a l l o f t h e m , t h e y a r e s u i t a b l e f o r b e a c h a c t i v i t y , m o s t a r e g o o d f i s h i n g b a r s , a n d t h e y a l l h a v e s o m e a d d i t i o n a l p o i n t s o f i n t e r e s t s u c h a s v i e w i n g o r b e a c h c o m b i n g . (2) D i s p e r s e d s i t e s B e c a u s e o f t h e n a t u r e o f t h e F r a s e r ' s r e c r e a t i o n p o t e n t i a l i t w a s n e c e s s a r y t o u t i l i z e t h i s c a t e g o r y f o r t h e d e s c r i p t i o n s o f A t o G s h o w n i n F i g u r e T w o . T h e s e a r e a s d o n o t r e p r e s e n t p o t e n t i a l l i n e a r p a r k s i t e s , b u t r a t h e r a r e a s w h e r e a t t e m p t s m i g h t b e m a d e t o p r e s e r v e t h e p r e s e n t c h a r a c t e r o f t h e i r l a n d u s e s s o t h e y m i g h t r e m a i n o f i n t e r e s t t o p e o p l e o n d a y o u t i n g s l i k e p l e a s u r e d r i v i n g , c y c l i n g , h i k i n g , o r h o r s e b a c k r i d i n g . A r e a s A , B , C , E , a n d G a r e s i m i l a r i n t h a t t h e y a r e i n a r e a s w h i c h a r e e s s e n t i a l l y a g r i c u l t u r a l o r v a c a n t . T h e r o a d i s l o c a t e d o n t o p o f a d y k e f o r t h e m o s t p a r t , a n d i s n o t s u i t a b l e f o r f a s t d r i v i n g . F i s h i n g c a m p s , a b a n d o n e d d o c k s , a n d t h e o c c a s i o n a l b o a t b u i l d e r a r e s c a t t e r e d a l o n g t h e w a y , a n d a d d i t i o n a l u s e s o f t h i s n a t u r e , a s w e l l a s t h e o c c a s i o n a l r e s t a u r a n t , f i s h o r v e g e t a b l e s t a n d , o r c r a f t s h c p , c o u l d b e a l l o w e d o r e v e n e n c o u r a g e d . T h e s e a r e b a s i c a l l y i n a r e a s w h i c h a r e i n t e r e s t i n g b e c a u s e t h e y c o n t a i n a v a r i e t y o f a c t i v i t i e s , b e c a u s e t h e y o f f e r n u m e r o u s o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r v i e w i n g t h e B i v e r , a n d b e c a u s e i t i s p o s s i b l e t o g a i n a c c e s s t o t h e w a t e r i n s e v e r a l p l a c e s . A l t h o u g h a l l a r e s u i t e d t o p l e a s u r e d r i v i n g , t h e y a r e a l l e x c e l l e n t c y c l i n g a r e a s a n d s e v e r a l h o r s e b a c k r i d e r s w e r e o b s e r v e d . I n s o m e c a s e s i t w o u l d b e p o s s i b l e t o c o n s t r u c t s e p e r a t e p a t h s f o r t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s . 38 Area D f Barnston I s l a n d , w i l l be mentioned s e p a r a t e l y because i t r i n g s an e x c l u s i v e l y a g r i c u l t u r a l area and much of the o u t s i d e of the dykes remains n a t u r a l . The road i s very popular with l o c a l c y c l i s t s who park t h e i r c a r s at the f e r r y dock, r i d e onto the c a r f e r r y , and c y c l e around the i s l a n d . There are s e v e r a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s to stop and gaze at the B i v e r , and the two major s i t e s a t e i t h e r end of the i s l a n d provide an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r r e l a t e d a c t i v i t y . S i t e F encompasses a l l of the e s t u a r i n e i s l a n d s and much has been s a i d about p r e s e r v i n g these. A d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n can be found i n Halladay and H a r r i s (1972) and o n l y the s a l i e n t p o i n t s need be repeated here. The l a r g e s t and outermost are used e x t e n s i v e l y f o r a g r i c u l t u r e as w e l l as c o n t a i n i n g an important b i r d s a n ctuary. The area i s used by s e v e r a l p l e a s u r e d r i v e r s , c y c l i s t s and nature o b s e r v e r s . The s m a l l e r i s l a n d s are covered by t y p i c a l e s t u a r i n e marsh with patches of t r e e s , shrubs and g r a s s , and they form a key waterfowl n e s t i n g area. Although some p a r t s of these are dyked and farmed, they f o r the most p a r t are n a t u r a l and only a c c e s s i b l e by s m a l l boat. The marsh area on the mainland i s i n c l u d e d because i t i s of a s i m i l a r nature. (3) Small S i t e s F i g u r e Two shows a number of s m a l l r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s but i t i s not i n anyway comprehensive. There undoubtedly are s e v e r a l o t h e r s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n the d i s p e r e d r e c r e a t i o n a l areas, but the category was d e v i s e d p r i m a r i l y t o accommodate the proposals made to preserve s e v e r a l s t r e e t end parks on the Vancouver s i d e of 3 9 the North Arm. These are g u i t e important i n t h a t area because most of the land i s a l r e a d y occupied and they r e p r e s e n t the l a s t chance f o r p u b l i c access to the F r a s e r . The main r e c r e a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e of these s i t e s i s the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r v i e w i n g . Although p i c n i c t a b l e s c o u l d be placed at some, and the o c c a s s i o n a l fisherman was noted during f i e l d w o r k , they are b a s i c a l l y s u i t e d only f o r vantage p o i n t s . G. SUMMARY An examination of the F r a s e r shorelands* p o t e n t i a l value f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l uses was conducted a c c o r d i n g to a methodology based on p r e v i o u s i n v e n t o r y approaches. T h i r t y - t w o major s i t e s were i d e n t i f i e d , n e a r l y h a l f of which were found to be s u f f i c i e n t l y a t r a c t i v e to merit r e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n as key major s i t e s . Most of the s i t e s are s u i t e d to beach a c t i v i t y but the most important use i s f o r sand bar f i s h i n g . Another important use i s f o r b o a t i n g , and s e v e r a l s i t e s are a t t r a c t i v e f o r t h i s use, p a r t i c u l a r i l y the e s t u a r i n e i s l a n d s . S e v e r a l d i s p e r s e d areas were found and these can accommodate numerous ple a s u r e d r i v e r s , c y c l i s t s and walkers. The s m a l l s i t e s were noted p r i m a r i l y as examples of ways of p r o v i d i n g o c c a s s i o n a l access p o i n t s f o r viewing R i v e r a c t i v i t y , p a r t i c u l a r i l y i n b u i l t up areas. The amount of shoreland which i s of r e c r e a t i o n a l value w i l l be examined i n d e t a i l i n the next chapter which a s s e s s e s c o n f l i c t s . However, i t i s notable at t h i s p o i n t that of a t o t a l uo of 139.5 miles of s h o r e l i n e i n the study area (measured between the l i m i t s shown i n F i g u r e One), approximately 18.1 miles are s u i t a b l e f o r major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Because the amount of shoreland necessary f o r s m a l l s i t e s i s i n s i g n i f i c a n t , and the amount necessary f o r d i s p e r s e d s i t e s i s h i g h l y v a r i a b l e , no esti m a t e s were made f o r these s i t e s . The amount of upland covered by major s i t e s was c r u d e l y estimated at 2500 ac r e s (assuming an average s i t e width of 1500 f e e t and not counting the c e n t e r s of l a r g e i s l a n d s ) . However, t h i s f i g u r e does not pr o v i d e a t r u e p i c t u r e because the fo r e s h o r e area at each s i t e was f r e q u e n t l y as l a r g e or l a r g e r than the upland (as shown from the s u r v e y ) . I f i t were p o s s i b l e t o measure t h i s i n t e r t i d a l b e l t the estimate of r e c r e a t i o n a l shoreland area would be in c r e a s e d c o n s i d e r a b l y . 0 0 42 Table One R e c r e a t i o n a l Use and P o t e n t i a l of Major S i t e s (from f i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n and sources i n Appendix I) I MAP N U M B B R » | i 1 1 I x_ 2 I 3 I l * 1 5 1 6 I 7 I 8 1 1 9 1 1 0 | i 111 i I J t o p o g r a p h y ^ | i , i T u f | u f i u I u f J u f | u f | f | f 1 1 1 f u | r— u 1 u I — H — I r .1 | r o a d a c c e s s 2 | i , „ , , i X I X ! x I x I x 1 x 1 X T 1 1 x 1 _1 x 1 — 4 _ x 1 I • T { p a r k i n g p o s s i b l e 3 | i . .. . . . . . i x f X -I 1 x ] x I x I X -+-1 1 T 1 1 _ f T j s u r r o u n d i n g u s e * | i i i v | iv i r v i j r v l I | a r | i v | V T 1 1 T v 1 1 i — i v | — 4 _ 1 I | i i i j u s e o b s e r v e d * | x I I x 1 x 1 x 1 j " 1 I " • — r ~ x 1 — 1 — 4 { i n t e r e s t e x p r e s s e d 6 t a n g l i n g —. , 4-x j x | I x .4 x I (beach a c t i v i t y I boating x I - i 4-I x I - 4 4-I I — 4 I H 4-x — 4 x I — 4 I x I I 4 4 _ I I .j 4-I I -4-I x I 4 4-1 I ! H 4 4 — 1 I I beachcombing I -4-| c a m p i n g J c u l t u r a l p a t t e r n s —-\ H -4 4 I v i e w i n g I w i l d l i f e {see notes x f {•— — I I -~\ I I H x I x I X — I 1 x { 1. u - upland most important; f - f o r e s h o r e most important 2 . assumes no p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y r e s t r i c t i o n s 3 . some parking space a l r e a d y and room f o r more 4 . i - i n d u s t r i a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l ; a - a g r i c u l t u r a l ; r - r e s i d e n t i a l ; v - vacant; I - i s l a n d 5 . use noted during summer f i e l d i n v e s t i g a t i o n 6. area has been mentioned i n a recent r e p o r t or suggested by a r e c r e a t i o n i s t 43 Table One JconJMtJ, BAP N O H B E H » | 12| 13 1. u upland most important; f - fore s h o r e most important 2. assumes no p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y r e s t r i c t i o n s 3. some parking space a l r e a d y and room f o r more 4. i - i n d u s t r i a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l ; a - a g r i c u l t u r a l ; r - r e s i d e n t i a l ; v - vacant; I - i s l a n d 5. use noted during summer f i e l d i n v e s t i g a t i o n 6. area has been mentioned i n a r e c e n t r e p o r t or suggested by a r e c r e a t i o n i s t 44 Table One J c o n j t l 30| 3 11 321TOT| 4 -( j. 1 uf| f u | f u j j -\ r 1 -i x | x | | 231 -I + ~ + — H x I x I | 23| 1. u upland most important; f - fo r e s h o r e most important 2. assumes no p r i v a t e property r e s t r i c t i o n s 3. some parking space a l r e a d y and room f o r more 4. i - i n d u s t r i a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l ; a - a g r i c u l t u r a l ; r - r e s i d e n t i a l ; v - vacant; I - i s l a n d 5. use noted during summer f i e l d i n v e s t i g a t i o n 6. area has been mentioned i n a r e c e n t r e p o r t or suggested by a r e c r e a t i o n i s t 45 Motes f o r Table One S i t e 1. T h i s i s c l e a r l y one of the best s i t e s i n the study a r e a ; and i t o f f e r s s i x miles of beach, the only sand dunes i n the r e g i o n , and the densest c o n c e n t r a t i o n of b i r d s anywhere on the Lower Mainland. S i t e 2. Before the c o n s t r u c t i o n of the Iona I s l a n d causeway Macdonald Slough was a part of the Sturgeon Bank e s t u a r i n e a r e a . I t s s e p a r a t i o n has caused i t to become a stagnant freshwater body with r a p i d l y d e t e r i o r a t i n g water q u a l i t y from e x t e n s i v e booming a c t i v i t i e s . The adjacent lands have recorded among the h i g h e s t b i r d counts of anywhere on the Lower Mainland, and they are a key n e s t i n g area f o r the endangered Gadwell s p e c i e s . S i t e 3. Vancouver C i t y has expressed r e c e n t i n t e r e s t i n d eveloping t h i s area between Angus Drive and Bernard S t r e e t as a waterfront park. S i t e 4. Richmond's only f o r e s h o r e park. S i t e _12. The c i t y o f New Westminster has been i n t e r e s t e d i n developing a w a t e r f r o n t park i n t h i s area f o r a number of years. S i t e V3. Although the e x t r a c t i o n of g r a v e l from the Coguitlam R i v e r has a f f e c t e d s t e e l h e a d and salmon runs, there i s s t i l l reasonably good f i s h i n g where i t j o i n s the F r a s e r . S i t e 15. Douglas I s l a n d c o n t a i n s one of the l a r g e s t f r e s h water marshes i n the lower mainland, and i t i s used e x t e n s i v e l y by Canada geese and s e v e r a l s p e c i e s of ducks. There are a number of bars s c a t t e r e d arcund the i s l a n d which would be s u i t a b l e f o r teaching a s m a l l boat or f o r bar f i s h i n g . S i t e _I6. There are ample sand bar areas to accommodate s e v e r a l fishermen. S i t e 17. T h i s i s unguestionably one of the best p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i n the study area. Wide sandy f o r e s h o r e and upland would be e a s i l y developed f o r day-use or overnight camping. S i t e 2JI. T h i s used t c be one of the most well used f i s h i n g bars i n the Lower Mainland. 32. Access to t h i s i s l a n d i s c u r r e n t l y by a land b r i d g e usable o n l y at low t i d e . I f a more s e r v i c e a b l e f o o t b r i d g e was c o n s t r u c t e d , the i s l a n d c o u l d f u n c t i o n as an e x c e l l e n t p i c k n i c k s i t e , f i s h i n g bar, vantage p o i n t and nature study area. 46 Chapter Four I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f R e c r e a t i o n a l - I n d u s t r i a l Shoreland Use C o n f l i c t s The need f o r a c l e a r understanding of the nature and extent of r e c r e a t i o n a l - i n d u s t r i a l s horeland use c o n f l i c t s became apparent during the e a r l y stages of the study. The complaints of r e c r e a t i o n i s t s were v a r i e d and i n c o n s i s t e n t , and p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n d u s t r i a l use and needs f o r shoreland were complex and u n c l e a r . I n d i c a t i o n s were that the problem concerned the i n d i s c r i m i n a t e l o c a t i o n of new p l a n t s r a t h e r than the t o t a l amount of shoreland absorbed by i n d u s t r y , but i t was necessary t o undertake a q u a n t i t a t i v e estimate of the p r e c i s e nature and extent of the c o n f l i c t i n order t c develop and apply a methodology f o r the e v a l u a t i o n of s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t . Two main types of c o n f l i c t can be i d e n t i f i e d : these which i n v o l v e permanent use f o r f a c t o r y s i t e s or r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y , and those which i n v o l v e non-permanent uses such as l o g booming. T h i s chapter w i l l e stimate the amount of c o n f l i c t with major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , and the amount and type c f vacant i n d u s t r i a l land along the B i v e r . C o n f l i c t s with d i s p e r s e d s i t e s 47 and s m a l l s i t e s w i l l a l s o be mentioned. I t w i l l be necessary to begin by d e s c r i b i n g b r i e f l y the e x i s t i n g use of sho r e l a n d s . A. NATUBE OF INDUSTRIAL USE Shoreland use can e i t h e r be i n the form of f i x e d s t r u c t u r e s which occupy upland and f o r e s h o r e s i t e s ; or i t can be i n the form of p o r t a b l e water l o t and f o r e s h o r e use f o r l o g storage which i n f l u e n c e s other uses of upland and f o r e s h o r e s i t e s . Beginning with the former, i t was observed i n F i g u r e One that shorelands are e s s e n t i a l l y vacant or a g r i c u l t u r a l i n aspect. Subseguent measurement on l a r g e s c a l e maps r e v e a l e d t h a t only 40 of 139 .5 miles of study area s h o r e l i n e i s occupied by some type of i n d u s t r i a l , commercial, or r e s i d e n t i a l a c t i v i t y . Of the used length about 24 miles are occupied by s i g n i f i c a n t i n d u s t r i a l o p e r a t i o n s , while the remainder i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d mainly by l e s s i n t e n s i v e c o m m e r c i a l - i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s such as f i s h i n g sheds or s m a l l marinas. In other words only about 175? cf the study area's shoreland i s c u r r e n t l y occupied by sawmills, g r a v e l s t o r a g e , food p r o c e s s i n g p l a n t s or s i m i l a r s i z e d i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s . The f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s use of f o r e s h o r e and adjacent water areas i s by f a r the most important c o n s i d e r a t i o n under t h i s heading. The geography of the c o a s t a l f o r e s t i n d u s t r y has teen s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by the the c o a s t a l waterway and the F r a s e r River because of the need f o r an economical means of t r a n s p o r t i n g l o g s . Most of the major m i l l s are centered i n the 48 G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r a r e a , w h i l e t i m b e r i s h a r v e s t e d a t v a r i o u s p o i n t s a l o n g t h e c o a s t . L o g s a r e t o w e d i n b o o m s , 6 6 f e e t w i d e b y 6 6 f e e t l o n g a n d u s u a l l y o n e l o g t h i c k , a n d s t o r e d i n t h e w a t e r u n t i l n e e d e d . W h i l e t h e F r a s e r o f f e r s t h e k e y a d v a n t a g e o f f r e s h w a t e r p r o t e c t i o n f r o m m a r i n e b o r e r s , i t s s t r o n g t i d a l a n d f r e s h e t c u r r e n t s l i m i t t h e t i m e s a n d s e a s o n s w h e n l e g s m a y b e b r o u g h t i n t o t h e R i v e r , a n d c o n s e g u e n t l y a l a r g e i n v e n t o r y m u s t b e m a i n t a i n e d u p s t r e a m f r o m t h e m i l l s . A d d i t i o n a l s t o r a g e n e e d s a r e a l s o a d d e d b y s e a s o n a l i n t e r r u p t i o n s i n s u p p l y b r o u g h t o n b y v e r y d r y s u m m e r s o r h e a v y s n o w f a l l . A n o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n w h i c h h a s e v o l v e d b e c a u s e o f t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f w a t e r l o t s f o r s t o r a g e h a s b e e n t h a t t h e s e l o c a t i o n s f a c i l i t a t e t r a d i n g o f d i f f e r e n t s p e c i e s a n d g r a d e s o f t i m b e r a m o n g m i l l s . t i n d e r e x i s t i n g t i m b e r t e n u r e r e g u l a t i o n s m i l l s m a y o n l y p r o c e s s t h e q u a n t i t y o f l o g s h a r v e s t e d f r o m t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r t r e e f a r m l i c e n c e s , b u t t h e s e n e e d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y b e t h e s a m e l o g s a s t h e y c u t i n t h e i r o w n c a m p s . I n o r d e r t o f a c i l i t a t e s p e c i a l i z a t i o n a m o n g m i l l s , t h e y m a y t r a d e e q u i v a l e n t q u a n t i t i e s o f l o g s a m o n g t h e m s e l v e s . T h e F r a s e r , t h e r e f o r e , h a s p r o v i d e d n o t o n l y t h e m e a n s o f t r a n s p o r t , b u t a l s o a p l a c e f o r e x t e n s i v e y e a r - r o u n d s t o r a g e t o a c c o m m o d a t e s e a s o n a l v a r i a t i o n s a n d m i l l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n . B . C O N F L I C T S W I T H P E R M A N E N T I N D U S T R I A L D S I B e c a u s e m u c h o f t h e F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s a r e u n u s e d , i t m i g h t a p p e a r t h a t l a n d c o u l d b e r e a d i l y s e t a s i d e f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e s . L o c a l p l a n n i n g a u t h o r i t i e s , h o w e v e r , h a v e n o t s h a r e d t h i s 49 p e r c e p t i o n ; i n s t e a d t h e y h a v e m a n a g e d F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d w i t h t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t a l l w a t e r f r o n t s i t e s s h o u l d b e r e s e r v e d f o r i n d u s t r i e s t h a t e x h i b i t a w a t e r f r o n t o r i e n t a t i o n . T h e a s s e s s m e n t o f c o n f l i c t , t h e r e f o r e , w i l l b e g i n b y i d e n t i f i n g w h i c h o f t h e m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s a r e l o c a t e d i n a r e a s d e s i g n a t e d f o r i n d u s t r i a l u s e b y t h e R e g i o n a l P l a n . W h i l e t h i s d o c u m e n t c o n t r o l s a l l l a n d u s e i n t h e s t u d y a r e a , o t h e r f a c t o r s g o v e r n t h e s u i t a b i l i t y o f s h o r e l a n d s i t e s f o r i n d u s t r i a l o c c u p a t i o n . T h e s e i n c l u d e c h a n n e l d e p t h , f o u n d a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s , a n d s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e . H o w e v e r , w h i l e t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e i m p o r t a n t r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e o f f i c i a l d e s i g n a t i o n , t h e y w e r e o n l y e x a m i n e d i n t h e a r e a s d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l f o r p u r p o s e s o f t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t e v a l u a t i o n . (1) R e g i o n a l P l a n T h e R e g i o n a l P l a n r e g u l a t e s a l l l a n d u s e , a n d a n y v i o l a t i o n t h e r e o f c o n s t i t u t e s a v i o l a t i o n o f t h e M u n i c i p a l a c t . O f t h e f i v e t y p e s o f d e v e l o p m e n t a r e a s — i n d u s t r i a l , u r b a n , r u r a l , p a r k a n d r e s e r v e — i n d u s t r i a l c l e a r l y i s a l l o c a t e d t h e l a r g e s t p o r t i o n o f t h e s h o r e l a n d , a s F i g u r e T h r e e d e m o n s t r a t e s . R e c r e a t i o n s i t e c o n f l i c t s w i t h o t h e r d e s i g n a t i o n s w e r e n o t c o n s i d e r e d b e c a u s e o f t h e s m a l l a m o u n t o f l a n d i n v o l v e d , b e c a u s e p a r k a r e a s a r e p e r m i t t e d w i t h i n a r e a s d e s i g n a t e d u r b a n , a n d b e c a u s e r u r a l a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e s g e n e r a l l y d o n o t i n v o l v e r e s t r i c t i n g a c c e s s t o , o r b u i l d i n g p e r m a n e n t s t r u c t u r e s u p o n t h e s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d . I n t h e a r e a s d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l t h e o n l y a c t i v i t e s p e r m i t t e d a r e i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s , i n t e r i m r u r a l u s e s , a n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n u s e s . 50 The Plan has been a l t e r e d by amendments and by the P r o v i n c i a l Government, and these changes w i l l have t c be noted before proceding to the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of c o n f l i c t s . The impact of m u n i c i p a l 2oning i s a l s o important i n that i t e f f e c t s the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f the P l a n . F i r s t , the Plan has been a l t e r e d by a few amendments s i n c e 1966. Although F i g u r e Three and a l l of the f o l l o w i n g c a l c u l a t i o n s r e f l e c t the amendments as they concern the shorezone, none of the c o n f l i c t s i d e n t i f i e d were i n areas d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by them. Second, the P r o v i n c i a l Government has, through the Land Commission Act, designated a number of areas as a g r i c u l t u r a l land r e s e r v e s . Areas possessing f e r t i l e s o i l s have been designated primary r e s e r v e s , and only a g r i c u l t u r a l and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n uses are permitted. Because the Re g i o n a l P l a n and l o c a l zoning must abide by the Act, F i g u r e Three and the f o l l o w i n g c a l c u l a t i o n s have been modified a c c o r d i n g l y . The only area d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d i s Barnston I s l a n d where s i t e s 16 and 17 are l o c a t e d . The Act a l s o s e t s a s i d e a number of secondary r e s e r v e s i n l e s s f e r t i l e areas. These lands are t e m p o r a r i l y r e s t r i c t e d to a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s e r v e s but no f i n a l d e c i s i o n s have yet been made concerning t h e i r use. The r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s which may e v e n t u a l l y be a f f e c t e d when c u r r e n t s t u d i e s c f these r e s e r v e s are completed are noted i n the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of c o n f l i c t s . T h i r d , l o c a l zoning can have an important i n f l u e n c e on i n d u s t r i a l use, but a review of l o c a l zoning bylaws found them to vary l i t t l e from the Regional P l a n . Although s l i g h t l y l e s s 5 1 s h o r e l i n e h a s b e e n z o n e d f o r i n d u s t r i a l u s e , o n l y s i t e 3 1 i s z o n e d o u t o f i n d u s t r i a l u s e . B e c a u s e o f t h i s s i m i l a r i t y , a n d b e c a u s e o f t h e r e l a t i v e e a s e w i t h w h i c h m u n i c i p a l z o n i n g m a y b e a l t e r e d ( t h e R e g i o n a l P l a n r e g u i r i n g a t w o - t h i r d s m a j o r i t y v o t e ) , l o c a l z o n i n g w a s n o t c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e a s s e s s m e n t o f c o n f l i c t . T h e a m o u n t o f c o n f l i c t b e t w e e n m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s a n d t h e R e g i o n a l P l a n h a s b e e n i d e n t i f i e d i n t e r m s o f Biles c f s h o r e l a n d , a n d i n t e r m s o f a c r e s o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d . B e c a u s e v e r y l i t t l e u p l a n d a r e a i s r e q u i r e d b y m a j o r s i t e s t h e f o r m e r i s m o s t i m p o r t a n t a n d t h r e e t a b l e s h a v e b e e n d e v i s e d t o d i s p l a y t h e i n f o r m a t i o n . T a b l e T w o s u m m a r i z e s t h e m a i n c o n f l i c t s i d e n t i f i e d i n t e r m s o f s h o r e l i n e m i l e s . T h e a c t u a l c o n f l i c t a t e a c h m a j o r s i t e a n d a d e t a i l e d e v a l u a t i o n o f c o n f l i c t s w i t h v a r i o u s t y p e s o f s h o r e l a n d a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e s T h r e e a n d F o u r , r e s p e c t i v e l y , w h i c h a p p e a r a t t h e e n d o f t h i s c h a p t e r . a . M i l e s o f C o n f l i c t F r o m t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f c o n f l i c t s i n T a b l e T h r e e i t c a n b e s e e n t h a t 2 3 o f t h e 3 2 m a j o r s i t e s a r e l o c a t e d i n a r e a s d e s i g n a t e d i d u s t r i a l . T h r e e o f t h e d i s p e r s e d r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s w e r e a l s o a f f e c t e d . T h e s u m m a r y i n T a b l e T w o i n d i c a t e s that p r e s e r v i n g a l l o f t h e m a j o r s i t e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n w o u l d i n v o l v e the l o s s o f 9 . 6 m i l e s , o r 1 6 % , o f t h e r e g i o n ' s v a c a n t s h o r e l a n d d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l . 52 Table Two Summary of R e c r e a t i o n - I n d u s t r i a l Shoreland C o n f l i c t s J M i l e s ^ SHORELAND POTENTIAL AND USE | NORTH ARM| MAIN ARM | TOTAL | 4 4 - — — 4 4 miles ( $ s u i t . f o r major s i t e s ) | 4- 4-vacant designated i n d u s t r i a l 18.5 -shallow p o r t - g c o d - f a i r f o u n d a t i o n s (7) | 41.3 (20) | 59.8 (16)| (7) | 15.8 (18) | 34.3 (12) | -\ 4 4 (8) | 12.0 (9) | 23.0 (9) | { 7.3 (10)1 7.3 ( 1 0 H -deep port o r i e n t e d - g o o d - f a i r f o u n d a t i o n s | 3.3 (3) | 3.3 (3) 4--deep p o r t / p o r t o r i e n t e d j - g o o d - f a i r f o u n d a t i o n s | 18.2 (34) | 18.2 (34) | | 14.0 (40) | 14.0 (40) | b. Acres of C o n f l i c t I t i s imp o s s i b l e to s p e c i f y a c c u r a t e l y the t o t a l area of i n d u s t r i a l land t h a t would be i n v o l v e d i f a l l of the major s i t e s were preserved because i t i s d i f f i c u l t to estimate the width of the r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d . However, because the removal of a l a r g e amount of the re g i o n s l a n d designated i n d u s t r i a l c ould have s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s on the land market a rough estimate was made. In 1966 there were about 18,300 acres of land designated i n d u s t r i a l i n the G.V.R.D. ( c a l c u l a t e d from G.V.R.D.: 1971). However, of t h i s only 12,500 acres were c o n s i d e r e d s u i t a b l e f o r immediate use by Space f o r Indu s t r y . The remainder was con s i d e r e d s u i t a b l e only f o r f u t u r e expansion. Since then the Land Commission has removed about 2500 acr e s from the t o t a l f o r 5 3 p r i m a r y a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s e r v e s . I n d u s t r i a l e x p a n s i o n h a s t a k e n u p a n a d d i t i o n a l 1 8 0 0 a c r e s t o 1 9 7 2 ( c a l c u l a t e d f r o m L e v e s g u e : 1 9 7 4 ) . S u b t r a c t i n g o u t t h e n e w e x p a n s i o n a n d t h e p r i m a r y r e s e r v e s we a r e l e f t w i t h a b o u t 1 4 , 0 0 0 a c r e s c f v a c a n t l a n d d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l , a n d 8 2 0 0 a c r e s o f l a n d c o n s i d e r e d t o b e s u i t a b l e f o r i m m e d i a t e u s e . A n e s t i m a t e o f t h e l a n d a r e a r e g u i r e d f o r m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s w a s n a d e f o r e a c h s i t e w i t h i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l d e s i g n a t e d r e g i o n . A s s u m i n g a l i b e r a l s i t e w i d t h o f 1 5 0 0 f e e t , a n d d i s c o u n t i n g s m a l l i s l a n d s n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e a b o v e t o t a l s , i t w a s f o u n d t h a t a b o u t 5 0 0 a c r e s w o u l d b e n e e d e d . T h i s t o t a l o n l y i n c l u d e s t h e u p l a n d a r e a o f s i t e s a s t h e f o r e s h o r e i s n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e t o t a l s a b o v e . W h i l e 5 0 0 a c r e s m a y a p p e a r t o b e a l o w e s t i m a t e f o r t h e n u m b e r o f s i t e s i n v o l v e d , i n c l u s i o n o f t h e f o r e s h o r e , a s t h e p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r i n d i c a t e d , w o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e e s t i m a t e o f a c t u a l u s a b l e m a j o r s i t e a c r e a g e c o n s i d e r a b l y . C o m p a r i n g t h e a r e a o f m a j o r s i t e s w i t h t h e t o t a l a c r e a g e o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d i n t h e r e g i o n , i t w a s c a l c u l a t e d t h a t a b o u t 4 $ o f t h e v a c a n t l a n d w o u l d b e n e e d e d i f a l l c f t h e m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s w e r e p r e s e r v e d . S i m i l a r i l y a b o u t 6% o f t h e v a c a n t i m m e d i a t e l y s u i t a b l e l a n d w o u l d b e r e g u i r e d f o r m a j o r s i t e s . T h e r e f o r e , 6n t h e b a s i s o f t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s i t i s s a f e t o s a y t h a t m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s c o n f l i c t w i t h a b o u t 555 o f t h e r e g i o n ' s t o t a l s u p p l y o f l a n d d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l . B e c a u s e t h i s t o t a l p r o v e d t o b e s m a l l i t w i l l n o t b e n e c e s s a r y t o b r e a k i t d o w n f u r t h e r , i n t e r m s o f a r e a , i n t h e s u b s e g u e n t e x a m i n a t i o n o f c h a n n e l s u i t a b i l i t y a n d f o u n d a t i o n s i n 54 t h i s c h a p t e r . However, i t w i l l have to be c o n s i d e r e d as a f a c t o r i n the e v a l u a t i o n of s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t . (2) Channel c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s The main concern of waterway users seeking shoreland s i t e s i s l i k e l y to be the s u i t a b i l i t y of the waterway f o r t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r type of use. The p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t between these uses and r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s was assessed i n terms c f channel c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . F i g u r e Four i l l u s t r a t e s the s u i t a b i l i t y of areas designated i n d u s t r i a l f o r p o r t or p o r t o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y r e q u i r i n g deep water, port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y r e q u i r i n g deep water, and p o r t o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y r e g u i r i n g shallow water ("port" i n d u s t r i e s are l a r g e l y engaged i n deepsea s h i p p i n g , and " p o r t o r i e n t e d " i n d u s t r i e s r e g u i r e waterfrentage e i t h e r to b r i n g i n s u p p l i e s or to s h i p f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s ) . The c r i t e r i a f o r c l a s s i f y i n g s horelands a c c o r d i n g to these c a t e g o r i e s were taken e n t i r e l y from a r e c e n t study by the G.V.R.D.. (1971). G e n e r a l l y speaking areas shown as s u i t a b l e f o r p o r t or port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y w i l l be able to accommodate v e s s e l s with a d r a f t of up to 33 f e e t on a 12 f o o t t i d e and, with the c u r r e n t dredging program, up to 35 f e e t w i t h i n t h r e e years. The maximum depth p o s s i b l e with f u r t h e r dredging i s l i m i t e d t o 40 f e e t because of the Deas I s l a n d Tunnel. The port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y category g e n e r a l l y a p p l i e s to areas having a depth range from 20 t o 33 f e e t . Shallow water i n d u s t r i a l areas may c o n t a i n as l i t t l e as 10 f e e t , but g e n e r a l l y range as high as 15 f e e t . In the North Arm a dredging program i s aiming a t t h i s higher mark as a uniform minimum depth w i t h i n the next two to 5 5 t h r e e y e a r s . F u r t h e r d r e d g i n g i s u n l i k e l y , h o w e v e r , b e c a u s e c f h i g h c o s t s a n d p r o b l e m s o f b a n k e r o s i o n . T a b l e T h r e e s h o w s t h e c h a n n e l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e a c h s i t e , a l t h o u g h s h a l l o w d r a f t o c c u r s m o r e f r e q u e n t l y i n t e r m s o f t o t a l n u m b e r s o f m a j o r s i t e s , a l a r g e r n u m b e r o f k e y s i t e s a r e f o u n d i n d e e p d r a f t a r e a s . H o w e v e r , i n T a b l e T w o a m o r e d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e c o n f l i c t w i t h p o r t a n d p o r t o r i e n t e d u s e i s r e a d i l y o b s e r v a b l e . O f a t o t a l o f 2 8 . 2 m i l e s o f s h o r e l i n e i n t h i s c a t e g o r y t h e r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s o c c u p y a b o u t 22%; a n d o f t h e v a c a n t s h o r e l a n d i n t h i s g r o u p t h e y o c c u p y 3U3I c f 1 8 . 2 m i l e s . T h e s e c o n d m o s t i m p o r t a n t c o n f l i c t i s w i t h v a c a n t s h a l l o w d r a f t u s e w i t h a b o u t "\2% o f a p o s s i b l e 3 4 . 3 m i l e s i n v o l v e d . M o s t o f t h i s i s a c c o u n t e d f o r b y t h e M a i n a r m a s o n l y 1% o f t h e l a n d i n t h i s c a t e g o r y i s a f f e c t e d o n t h e N o r t h a r m . M a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s c o n f l i c t w i t h o n l y 1 0 % o f t h e l a n d i n t h e d e e p p o r t o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y c a t e g o r y . ( 3 ) F o u n d a t i o n C o n d i t i o n s a n o t h e r f a c t o r w h i c h i s t y p i c a l l y c o n s i d e r e d a s i m p o r t a n t t o t h e l o c a t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s i s t h e f o u n d a t i o n c o n d i t i o n . B e c a u s e m a n y L o w e r M a i n l a n d a r e a s a r e n o t e d f o r t h e i r v e r y p o o r f o u n d a t i o n s m u c h a t t e n t i o n h a s b e e n p a i d t o t h i s a s p e c t c f l a n d u s e . T h e m o s t d e t a i l e d i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f f o u n d a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s c a n b e f o u n d i n D y n a m i c s o f I n d u s t r i a l L a n d S e t t l e m e n t ( L . M . B . P . B . : 1 9 6 1 ) , a n d F i g u r e F i v e i s d r a w n f r o m i t s f i n d i n g s . B a s e d o n t h i s r e p o r t a l l s h o r e l a n d s c a n b e c l a s s i f i e d i n t o o n e o f f o u r c a t e g o r i e s : ( 1 ) n o e x t r a c o s t s n o r m a l l y i n v o l v e d , ( 2 ) n o e x t r a c o s t o r c a p a b l e o f s u c c e s s f u l t r e a t m e n t a t m o d e r a t e c o s t . 5 6 (3) e x t r a c o s t not known but l i k e l y to be moderate to high, (4) e x t r a c o s t s l i k e l y to be high. However, on the b a s i s of observed use of F r a s e r shoreland i t became e v i d e n t t h a t p a t t e r n s of i n d u s t r i a l use d i d not c l o s e l y correspond to t h e i r o u t l i n e , and measurement i n d i c a t e d that 28% of a l l occupied shoreland was i n category (3) and (4) areas. The l a r g e s t p a r t of the use has occurred i n category (4) lands i n the Surrey and D e l t a s e c t i o n s . Based on t h i s o b s e r v a t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , i t was decided t c u t i l i z e only two c a t e g o r i e s , good to f a i r and poor to very poor, f o r a n a l y s i s . Table Three shows the f o u n d a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s a t each s i t e , and the amount of c o n f l i c t i s summarized i n Table Two. As i t can be seen major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s c o n f l i c t with areas having good foun d a t i o n s p r i m a r i l y i n the port and p o r t o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y c a tegory. of a t o t a l of 14.0 miles of t h i s type of shoreland, 40% would need to be removed to preserve major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . (4) Other C o n s i d e r a t i o n s A number of other f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g new i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n s were examined but not found to be worthy of e x t e n s i v e treatment. The f i r s t of three was access to other t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , namely road and r a i l . Because of the dynamic nature of these f a c i l i t i e s i t would be d i f f i c u l t to make a meaningful estimate of the s h o r e l a n d areas having access to them, and the percentage of these c l a s s i f i e d as r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . I t i s f a i r to say t h a t the l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of study area shoreland can be reached by road, and s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t s by r a i l 57 as w e l l , and t h a t r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s do not occupy a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l a r g e amount of these a r e a s . Eased cn Table Two i t would probably be more c o r r e c t to say they occupy a p r o p o r t i o n a l l y s m a l l e r l e n g t h of road or r a i l s e r v i c e d s h o r e l i n e . Sewer and water s e r v i c e , the second f a c t o r , i s l e s s a v a i l a b l e than t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , but i t s dynamic nature a l s o l i m i t s the u s e f u l n e s s of e s t i m a t e s . In a d d i t i o n i t was found that many f i r m s have the a b i l i t y to be l a r g e l y independent cf these s e r v i c e s , and a study by Swan-Wooster Engineering (1972) f o r a major i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t l o c a t i n g on unse r v i c e d land i n d i c a t e d t h a t f i r m s c o u l d p r o v i d e t h e i r own well water and sewage treatment a t a moderate c o s t r e l a t i v e t o the t o t a l investment. The t h i r d f a c t o r c o n s i d e r e d was land tenure. I t was found t h a t upland p o r t i o n s of most of the major s i t e s were l o c a t e d on p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y ; f o r e s h o r e s are owned e i t h e r by the Province or the Harbour Commissions; and adjacent water was owned by the F e d e r a l Government. Because of t h i s complexity, and because ownership of p r i v a t e property can change very q u i c k l y , no meaningful estimates of c o n f l i c t can be made i n t h i s r e gard. 58 C. CONFLICTS WITH NON-PEHMANENT INDUSTRIAL USE F i g u r e Six i l l u s t r a t e s the extent of l o g storage a c t i v i t y on the F r a s e r , and Table Three shows the major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s where booming c o n f l i c t s . I t can be seen that a c o n f l i c t was noted at 24 s i t e s , 11 of which were key s i t e s . For each s i t e an approximate estimate was made of the minimum storage area that would have to be removed i n order to accommodate r e c r e a t i o n a l use. I t must be s t r e s s e d t h a t these estimates do net r e f l e c t the t o t a l s t orage area t h a t may l i e adjacent to a s i t e , they only r e f l e c t the minimum necessary t o reduce the c o n f l i c t s u f f i c i e n t l y t o accommodate r e c r e a t i o n a l use. T h e i r main value i s f o r the purpose of d e r i v i n g a t o t a l i n order to estimate the p r o p o r t i o n of the t o t a l s t orage area i n v o l v e d , r a t h e r than as p r e c i s e e s t i m a t e s a t a s i t e l e v e l . I t w i l l be noted that i n some cases a c o n f l i c t was l i s t e d i n Table Three but the estimate shown i s zero. At these s i t e s i t may be p r e f e r a b l e t o e l i m i n a t e some s t o r a g e area, but not e s s e n t i a l . Table Four shows t h a t i t would be necessary t o move 65? of the t o t a l s t orage area i n the North Arm and 9% i n the Main Arm i n order to f r e e a l l of the major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . In t o t a l t h i s amounts to approximately 815 of 1700 acreas c f storage space. A note of q u a l i f i c a t i o n about the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of c o n f l i c t s with l o g booming i s warranted at t h i s p o i n t . The c a l c u l a t i o n s have d e l i b e r a t e l y been c o n f i n e d to the minimum needed to f r e e the r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i n order to f a c i l i t a t e uses r e g u i r i n g d i r e c t water c o n t a c t (eg. f i s h i n g ) . The t o t a l area 59 w h i c h m a y a p p e a r t o c o n f l i c t m a y b e l a r g e r b u t m u c h d i s a g r e e m e n t h a s b e e n f o u n d o v e r t h e a e s t h e t i c m e r i t s a n d d e m e r i t s o f l o g b o o m s . W h i l e t h e h o s t o f t h e r e p o r t s c o n s u l t e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r c o n d e m n b o o m i n g c o m p l e t e l y , o t h e r s h a v e e x t o l l e d t h e b e a u t y a n d v i r t u e o f l o g b o o m s . T o q u o t e H a r d w i c k ( 1 9 6 1 ) f o r e x a m p l e : " T h e o r d e r o f t h e b o o m , t h e m a s s i v e n e s s o f t h e b o o m , t h e r e a l i z a t i o n t h a t t h o u s a n d s o f y e a r s o f l i v i n g t r e e s a r e a s s e m b l e d , t h e n m o v e d f o r . f a n ' s u s e t o s o m e p r o c e s s i n g e s t a b l i s h m e n t - a l l m a k e l o g b o o m s f a s c i n a t i n g a n d e v e n r o m a n t i c t o t h e c o a s t d w e l l e r . " a f e w s p e c i a l s i t u a t i o n s w e r e o b s e r v e d d u r i n g f i e l d w o r k w h e r e u s e o f u p l a n d c o u l d b e a l t e r e d o r r e l o c a t e d t o f a c i l i t a t e r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e . S i t e 20, a s c r a p y a r d , i s a n i m p o r t a n t e x a m p l e . I t m a k e s n o u s e o f r i v e r f r o n t a g e , a n d n o p e r m a n e n t i n d u s t r i a l w o r k s h a v e b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d . I t i s s i m p l y u s e d f o r t h e s t o r a g e o f o l d c a r b o d i e s . O t h e r c a s e s a r e l i s t e d i n t h e n o t e s t o T a b l e T h r e e w h e r e a n u p l a n d o w n e r m a k e s l i t t l e o r n o u s e o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n s i t e i n q u e s t i o n b u t c o n t r o l s a c c e s s t o i t . u s e o f t h e s e s i t e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n w o u l d i n v o l v e t h e p r o v i s i o n o f a n a c c e s s c o r r i d o r a n d s u i t a b l e f e n c i n g t o f a c i l i t a t e r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e . 60 D. SUMHftBY The i n f o r m a t i o n generated i n t h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l be used to p r o v i d e a s p e c i f i c frame of r e f e r e n c e w i t h i n which the f o l l o w i n g chapter w i l l c o n s i d e r the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of p r e s e r v i n g major, d i s p e r s e d and s m a l l r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Two main types of c o n f l i c t have been i d e n t i f i e d which a f f e c t the use of major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i n the F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s . In the f i r s t case i n v o l v i n g the c o n s t r u c t i o n of permanent i n d u s t r i a l f a c i l i t i e s , i t was found t h a t most of the major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s have been designated f o r i n d u s t r i a l use by the Begio n a l P l a n , and the most important type of s h o r e l a n d a f f e c t e d was t h a t having deep d r a f t p o r t and port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y p o t e n t i a l and good foundation c o n d i t i o n s . In order to preserve the major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i t would be necessary to forgo s h o r e l i n e i n each of the f o l l o w i n g c a t e g o r i e s : 12% of the shoreland s u i t a b l e f o r shallow p o r t i n d u s t r y , 10% of the shoreland s u i t a b l e f o r deep p o r t o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y , and 34% of the shoreland s u i t a b l e f o r p o r t and port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y . Because some of the major s i t e s occupy lands having good fo u n d a t i o n s , the p o s s i b l e removal of lands having good foundations w i l l have to be c o n s i d e r e d i n the e v a l u a t i o n cf o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t . The extent of t h i s problem was summarized i n Table Two. Because of the nature of the s m a l l and dis p e r s e d s i t e s , c o n f l i c t s with these have only been mentioned b r i e f l y . The second type of c o n f l i c t noted l a r g e l y concerned the use of shorelands f o r l o g storage. Because of the u n c e r t a i n t y i n v o l v e d i n e s t i m a t i n g the extent of t h i s c o n f l i c t percieved by 6 1 r e c r e a t i o n i s t s i t was decided to estimate only a minimum l i m i t of the storage area that would need to be relocated to accommodate r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . In t h i s case i t w i l l be necessary to calculate the cost of relocating approximately 8* of the t o t a l storage area. 66 Table Three P o t e n t i a l and E x i s t i n g C o n f l i c t s i—: T : 1 •_ 1 : — — — i — : — — i — : : T • — ~ i : T | SITE | APPHOX.|BEGI08-|FOUNDA-|CHANNEL|BOOHING|STCBAGE|CT HEBS | jNO. ISHOBE. |AL PLANfTIONS |SOIT. jCONFL. |ACRES J-SEE | | jFOOTAGE|CONFL. 1 AT SITEJ AT SIT1| |CONFL.2|NOTES | r H H 4— H H -I — I i | J, | 4600 j J I | x* | 6 | x | j 4— 4— 4 — H-—— 4 — -\ — — H 1 2 | 10000 | | | | x* | 15 } x | Y-^—i 4 -I 4 — . 4 - -I : — 4 — 4 | 3 | 1200 | x 3 | f a i r | s h a l . | x | 4 | x | »-— + -\ ^ 4 -I -4- 4 | 4 | 1000 | | | | | | | j 4~ 4 I 4- 4 —i 4 | 5 | 2400 | | | | | | x | | 6 I 900 t ~ j ] ] t ~ t 1 I 7 | 300 | x 3 |v.poor j s h a l . | x I 1 | | I 8 | 200 | x 3 |v.pcor j s h a l . | x | 0.5 | I I- -j + - 4 — -J ^ H 4 — 4 | 9 | 1500 | x 3 |v.poor | s h a l . | x | 3 | | | 10 J 600 | x | gooa | s h a l . | x | 1.5 | I l~ 4- -\ 1 4 — I 4~ ^ -I | 11 | 3000 | x | f a i r | s h a l . j x 6 | 2 | I r 4-—- 4 V- 4 — 1 H -i — 1 | 12 | 800 | x | gcoa | deep* | x* J 0 | I r - - — H -i— — 4 H H -4 4 — 4 | I J | 2000 | x | poor | deep* | x | 7 | I | 14 | 2000 | | | | x j 6.5 1 1 H — H H H -I - H 4— 4 4 | 15 | 19000 | | | | x* | 5 | x | | 16 | 1000 | | | | x | 5 | x | | 17 | 2000 | | | | ~ x j 9 1 } 18 | 1500 | x |v.poor | s h a l . | x | 8 | | | 19 | 900 | x |v.poor | deep* | x 6 | 0 | x | I H 4 H . 4~ — 4 — — 4 — H -i | 20 | 900 | x |v.poor | deep* | x | 2 | x | I - — — 4 H —4- H — f 4- — I 4 | 21 | 1000 | x | f a i r | deeps | | | | }• -\ 4- -4- -I -I -* H — H | 22 I 1 0 0 0 I x I good | deep 8 j x | 6 | | j. _-j — I -! .j _ . j 4 H + | 23 | 600 | x | good | s h a l . | I I I L 1 i J L I I 4 I 67 Table Three j c o n ^ t j r T : 1— T T T T — — i : 1 | SITE|APPBOX.| BEGION-|FOUNDA-|CHANNEL|BOOHING|STOBAGI|CTEIBS \ | N 0 . ISHOBE. |AL PLAN|TIONS |SUIT. fCONFL. JACHES |-SEE | | |FOOTAGEJCONFL. |AT SITE)AT SITE| j CONFL.2|NOTES | I 24 | 2000 | x | good | s h a l . | x | 5 | I — H H r 1 —I — — — 4 — — -j | 25 | 2500 | x 3 | f a i r | s h a l . | x* | 0 | | | 26 | 700 | x | f a i r | s h a l . | x | 1.5 | I I 27 | 2000 | x |v.peor | Seeps | j ' | x | f H _ — H h -J -I - H 4 | 28 | 1500 | x | f a i r | deeps | x | 4 | | I 4 — 4 H 4 4 — 4 - 4 — 4 | 29 | 600 | x | f a i r | deeps | x | 3 | x | H . H _ _ + +_ -j 4- H 4- ^ | 30 | 15000 | x 3 | f a i r | deep 5 | x 6 | 33 | I r — = H 4 4 H H H H 4 I | 3600 | x 3 | f a i r | aeeps I I I ! r H H — 1 1 -I — H 4 4 | 32 | 7200 | x j f a i r | deep* I I I I j . r — 4 - j — -I -J 4 — ^ | A | 14000 | | | | | i | I- 4 1 4 h 4 — H -\ — 4 | B | 20000 | x |v.poor | s h a l . | x* | 0 | I I- 4 1 -\ 4 - 4 - 4- 4 4 | C | 7000 | x 3 | f a i r | deep* | x« | 0 | J |. 4_ 4- H i H f -I 4 | D | 33000 | | | | x* J 0 | | | E | 14000 | x Jv.poor | deep 5 | x 6 | 0 | I j. +_ ^ — 4 — -I 4 — — H -4 | F | N.A. | | t I t i I I G J 12000 | | | | J I I L 1 J I I I L i J key major r e c r e a t i o n areas x i n d i c a t e s c o n f l i c t 1. i n d i c a t e s approximate minimum length that would have to be forgone i n order to accomodate r e c r e a t i o n a l needs 2. i n d i c a t e s approximate minimum storage area that would have to be forgone i n order to accomodate r e c r e a t i o n a l use 3. upland has been designated secondary a g r i c u l t u r a l reserve 4. port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y only 5. port or port or i e n t e d i n d u s t r y 6. denotes only a p a r t i a l c o n f l i c t N o t e s f o r T a b l e T h r e e S i t e J_. A l i g h t i n d u s t r i a l p a r k h a s b e e n p r o p o s e d f o r t h i s s i t e . S i t e 2 . T h i s i s a p a r t i c u l a r i l y d i f f i c u l t a r e a t o e s t i m a t e t h e l o g s t o r a g e a r e a c o n f l i c t . S i t e 3 . T h e r e h a v e b e e n v a r i o u s p r o p o s a l s f o r l i g h t a n d h e a v y i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t a t t h i s s i t e . S i t e 5. T h e c o n f l i c t i n t h i s c a s e w a s w i t h b a r g e s t o r a g e r a t h e r t h a n l o g s t o r a g e b u t i t w a s t r e a t e d i n t h e s a m e w a y f o r s i m p l i c i t y . T h e e s t i m a t e r e p r e s e n t s t h e l o g s t o r a g e a r e a t h a t w o u l d h a v e t o b e f o r g o n e i n o r d e r t o a c c o m o d a t e t h e b a r g e s i f t h e s i t e w a s g i v e n o v e r t o r e c r e a t i o n u s e . S i t e J .5 . W h i l e t h e e n t i r e i s l a n d i s r i n g e d w i t h l o g b o o m s i t w o u l d o n l y b e n e c e s s a r y t o r e m o v e a f e w t o i m p r o v e t h e r e c r e a t i o n a l c a p a b i l i t y . S i t e . 1 6 . A c c e s s t o t h i s s i t e i s r e s t r i c t e d b e c a u s e o f t h e l o c a t i o n o f a f a r m e r s y a r d a n d b u i l d i n g s . S i t e J 9 . U s e o f u p l a n d a r e a f o r g r a v e l s t o r a g e p r e v e n t s a c c e s s t o a f o r m e r l y p o p u l a r s a n d b a r f i s h i n g s i t e . S i t e 2 0 . U s e o f t h e u p l a n d a n d f o r e s h o r e a r e a b y a s c r a p m e t a l d e a l e r h a s e l i m i n a t e d a c c e s s t o o n e o f t h e m o s t p o p u l a r s a n d b a r s i n t h e a r e a . S i t e 2 7 . A c c e s s t o t h i s s i t e i s d i f f i c u l t b e c a u s e a p e r m i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o c r o s s t h e B i c h m o n d D u m p . T h e d u m p h a s m a d e i t a v e r y d i r t y a n d u n p l e a s a n t s i t e , b u t i t h a s s t i l l r e m a i n e d p o p u l a r a m o n g f i s h e r m e n . S i t e 2 9 . A c c e s s t o t h i s s i t e i s r e s t r i c t e d b y t h e u p l a n d o w n e r . 69 T a b l e F o u r E x t e n t o f t h e B e c r e a t i o n a l - I n d u s t r i a l C o n f l i c t * i — - — i : T : — N O B T H A B M | M A I N A B B | T O T A L S H O B E L A N D P O T E N T I A L A N D O S E -H m i l e s ( ^ i n d u s t . d e s i g n a t e d ) I m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s t . 9 (27)| 12.8 (65)| 17.7 (54) 4 H -j 3.5 (6) | 10.5 (59) | 14.0 (46) | 4 + 4 k e y m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s m i l e s ( S s u i t . f o r m a j o r s i t e s ) | _ — + _ — 4 . -H 4 8 . - 5 . ( 1 0 ) 1 91.0 (14)|139.5 (13) | H 1— 4 t o t a l s h o r e l i n e v a c a n t o r a g r i c u l t u r a l 31.3 (16)| 68.2 (18)| 99.5 (18) | 4- -4 d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l - s h a l l o w p o r t - d e e p p o r t o r i e n t e d 31.6 (4) | 60.0 (14) | 91.6 (10) | 31.6 (4) | 20.4 (8) I 52.0 (5) | - d e e p p o r t / p e r t o r i e n t e d I 11.4 (6H 11.4 < 6 H I 28.2 (22) | 28.2 (22) | 4-v a c a n t d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l - s h a l l o w p o r t 18.5 ( 7 ) | 41.3 (20) | 59.8 (16) | 4- 4-18.5 (7) | 15.8 (18)| 34.3 (12) j 4-- g o o d - f a i r f o u n d a t i o n s - p c o r - v . p o o r f o u n d a t i o n s I — - — 11.0 (8) | 12.0 (9) | 23.0 (9) | -I . 4 1 7.5 (5) | 3.8 (8) I 11.3 (6) | 4— - d e e p p o r t o r i e n t e d 0 - g o o d - f a i r f o u n d a t i o n s 4-| 7.3 (10) | 7.3 (10) | I 3.3 (3) | 3.3 (3)1 - p o o r - v . p o o r f o u n d a t i o n s I 4.0 (15) | 4.0 (15) | - d e e p p o r t / p o r t o r i e n t e d J 18.2 (34) | 18.2 (34) | - g o o d - f a i r f o u n d a t i o n s | 14.0 (40) I 14.0 (40) | 4- — 4 - p c o r - v . p o o r f o u n d l o g s t o r a g e a r e a | 4.2 (12)| 4.2 (12)| a c r e s ( % c o n f . w i t h m a j o r s i t e s ) j 600 (6) |1100 (9) J1700 (8) | 4-a c r e s ( I c o n f . w i t h k e y nt. s i t e s ) 4- 4- — 4 l o g s t o r a g e a r e a 600 (4) 11100 (7) | 1700 (6) | L I 1. The l e n g t h of s h o r e l i n e was measured on l a r g e s c a l e maps but s e v e r a l f a c t o r s l i m i t i t s accuracy. These mainly i n c l u d e the shape and amount used of occupied l o t s , and a number of f i r m s which l o c a t e d too near to the shore t o permit another i n d u s t r i a l use, but which d i d not a c t u a l l y occupy the immediate shore area. I s l a n d s were g e n e r a l l y measured i f they were not innundated d u r i n g high r u n o f f years, but the long narrow ones were only measured along one s i d e because they c o u l d not accomodate i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y cn both s i d e s . The l i m i t s of the s h o r e l i n e measured are shown i n F i g u r e One. Estimates of l o g storage areas were taken from Harbour Commission maps and Forward (1968), and t h e i r accuracy can only be claimed t c be s u f f i c i e n t f o r such purposes as they were used here. 71 Chapter F i v e A n a l y t i c Framework f o r Examining the S o c i a l Q££ort_nit_! Cost of P r e s e r v i n g E r a s e r Shoreland f o r R e c r e a t i o n Chapter Two concluded that there may be seme s e r i o u s shortcomings i n the way t h a t present i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements a l l o c a t e s h o r e l a n d . Whether new arrangements are needed i s d i f f i c u l t to say, but i t i s c l e a r at l e a s t t h a t b e t t e r e v a l u a t i o n techniques are r e q u i r e d f o r improved shoreland a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s . Chapter Three i d e n t i f i e d a number of r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s which may be worthy of p r e s e r v a t i o n , and Chapter Four i d e n t i f i e d the main c o n f l i c t s between the s i t e s and p o t e n t i a l and e x i s t i n g upland use. The purpose of t h i s Chapter i s t o set out a framework i n which the s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of p r e s e r v i n g these s i t e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n can u s e f u l l y be examined. I d e a l l y , an a n a l y t i c technique should be able to a ssess a l l the b e n e f i t s and c o s t s of a l t e r n a t i v e l a n d uses. I t would, i n other words, perform the same r o l e as a w e l l - f u n c t i o n i n g market i n a l l o c a t i n g the land to i t s best use. To undertake a b e n e f i t - c o s t a n a l y s i s , the most commonly employed framework, to determine the best use of major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d , i t 72 would be necessary to impute a value to unpriced r e c r e a t i o n b e n e f i t s . There are techniques f o r making such an e v a l u a t i o n t h a t have been a p p l i e d s u c c e s s f u l l y elsewhere, but p r i m a r i l y i n s i t u a t i o n s where the r e c r e a t i o n i s t s c o u l d e a s i l y be i d e n t i f i e d and questioned. The c u r r e n t use by r e c r e a t i o n i s t s cn F r a s e r shorelands i s f a r l e s s than t h a t which could e a s i l y be accommodated and thus the argument f o r p r e s e r v i n g the s i t e s r e s t s more on e x p e c t a t i o n s of f u t u r e demand. Future demand i s c l o s e l y l i n k e d t o the p e r c e p t i o n c f supply and a change i n d e s i g n a t i o n o f the land p l u s the p r o v i s i o n of s u i t a b l e f a c i l i t i e s w i l l undoubtedly have a major i n f l u e n c e on the demand f o r r e c r e a t i o n on the F r a s e r shorelands. Eut t h i s i s e x c e e d i n g l y d i f f i c u l t to p r e d i c t a c c u r a t e l y . Given these d i f f i c u l t i e s t h i s t h e s i s seeks t c provide an a l t e r n a t i v e approach which t r i e s t o i l l u m i n a t e the key elements which should be c o n s i d e r e d i n a shoreland a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n . The approach adopted i s to examine the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of a l l o c a t i n g shorelands to r e c r e a t i o n a l use. In p a r t i c u l a r the perceived assumption t h a t there i s a s c a r c i t y of shoreland f o r i n d u s t r i a l purposes w i l l be s c r u t i n i z e d to assess the i m p l i c a t i o n s of removing some of the land from i t s i n d u s t r i a l d e s i g n a t i o n . The o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t approach asks the q u e s t i o n , what i n f a c t i s given up by a l l o c a t i n g land to one use as opposed to another. Because shorelands are considered to be v a l u a b l e to i n d u s t r y by the Regional Plan, t h i s suggests t h a t many fi r m s may a t t a c h a r e n t a l value to shoreland i n excess of the r e n t a l value which they a t t a c h to upland s i t e s with s i m i l a r foundation or 73 s e r v i c i n g f e a t u r e s . T h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l attempt to ev a l u a t e the nature and s i z e of the r e n t a l d i f f e r e n c e i n q u a l i t a t i v e terms, p r o j e c t the f u t u r e needs of f i r m s which r e g u i r e shoreland, and compare these needs with the supply of land designated i n d u s t r i a l . T h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l not, of course, answer a l l the guestions a d e c i s i o n maker wants answered. For example, i t w i l l s t i l l be necessary to make a judgement about whether the r e c r e a t i o n b e n e f i t s generated by F r a s e r shorelands exceed the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of so a l l o c a t i n g the lands. But knowing f i r s t something of the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t makes t h i s judgement much more manageable. ft. EVALUATING SOCIAL OPPOBTUHITI COST: A BEVIEH CF EEBTIMENT THEOflETICAL AND EHPIBICAL LITEBATUBE The e v a l u a t i o n of s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t w i l l be concerned with the demands placed on shorelands by i n d u s t r y , and the a b i l i t y of the supply of vacant lands to absorb these. As i t has been pointed out the supply of vacant shoreland can be assessed i n terms of miles of waterway access and i n terms of land a rea. Because the main c o n f l i c t i d e n t i f i e d was with the miles of waterway access which are r e g u i r e d f o r r e c r e a t i o n t h i s w i l l be the c e n t r a l concern. However, a s m a l l amount of the r e g i o n ' s l a n d designated i n d u s t r i a l would a l s o have to be forgone i n order to preserve r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s and t h i s w i l l a l s o be of i n t e r e s t . An e v a l u a t i o n of the o p p o r t u n i t y c c s t of log storage a l t e r n a t i v e s w i l l be approached from a d i f f e r e n t p o i n t 74 o f v i e w i n t h a t t h e c o s t s o f t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e s w i l l b e e x a m i n e d i n p e c u n i a r y t e r m s . A n y a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s i m p o s e d b y c h a n g i n g t o o t h e r m e a n s o r a r e a s f o r s t o r a g e w i l l b e r e f e r r e d t o a s o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s . A m a j o r a s p e c t o f t h e a n a l y s i s c o n c e r n s t h e d e m a n d s p l a c e d o n s h o r e l a n d s f o r w a t e r w a y a c c e s s . B e c a u s e d i f f e r e n t f i r m s r e q u i r e d i f f e r e n t c o m b i n a t i o n s o f l a n d r e s o u r c e a t t r i b u t e s t h e y a t t a c h p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e s t o s u c h f e a t u r e s a s f o u n d a t i o n s , p r o x i m i t y t o c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s a r e a s , u t i l i t y s e r v i c i n g , w a t e r f r o n t a g e a n d g r o u n d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . T h e i m p o r t a n c e o f c e r t a i n c o m b i n a t i o n s o f t h e s e a t t r i b u t e s c a n b e t e r m e d a r e n t a l v a l u e . T h i s r e n t d o e s n o t e q u a l t h e a m o u n t a c t u a l l y p a i d t o u s e t h e l a n d , o r t h e a m o u n t t h a t c a n b e i m p u t e d f r o m m a r k e t v a l u e d a t a . B u t r a t h e r i t r e f l e c t s t h e a m o u n t a u s e r c o u l d p a y f o r t h e l a n d b e c a u s e o f t h e n e t p r o d u c t h e g e t s f r o m i t . B e c a u s e s h o r e l a n d s m a y h o l d a p a r t i c u l a r r e n t a l v a l u e f o r s o m e f i r m s i t w i l l b e i m p o r t a n t e x a m i n e t h i s f a c t o r i n d e t a i l . H o w e v e r , i t m a y n o t b e t h e o n l y c o n s i d e r a t i o n a n d t h e l i t e r a t u r e o n i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n w a s c o n s u l t e d t o p r o v i d e a n o v e r v i e w o f i t s r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e . B i t h t h i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e d i s c u s s i o n w i l l p r o c e e d t o a r e v i e w o f m e t h o d s o f e v a l u a t i n g t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f l i m i t i n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f c e r t a i n l a n d s . T h e f i n a l s e c t i o n w i l l d e s c r i b e t h e a n a l y t i c t e c h n i q u e s w h i c h w i l l b e a p p l i e d t o t h e s t u d y a r e a . 7 5 {1) F a c t o r s i n the Rental Value of Shorelands a. Access to Wajterway T r a n s p o r t a t i o n The d e s i r e of f i r m s to minimize t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s has been the c e n t r a l theme throughout much of the l i t e r a t u r e cn i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n . Because waterway t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s the cheapest means of moving goods, p a r t i c u l a r i l y heavy gccds over great d i s t a n c e s , i t i s g e n e r a l l y assumed t h a t f i r m s w i l l a u t o m a t i c a l l y choose i t wherever p o s s i b l e . T h i s t h i n k i n g has c h a r a c t e r i z e d much of c u r r e n t theory which was founded by Weber ( t r a n s l a t e d i n F r i e d r i c h : 1965) a t the t u r n of the century. Although more recent w r i t e r s (eg. Hoover: 1945 or Alonso: 1967) have developed more complex analyses which i n c o r p o r a t e many a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , they have not s t r a y e d from the o r i g i n a l " l e a s t - c o s t " p r i n c i p l e . In order to review the c u r r e n t a p p l i c a b i l i t y of t h i s approach and the importance of access to waterway t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i t w i l l be necessary to c o n s i d e r i t s s i g n i f i c a n c e to i n t e r r e g i o n a l and i n t r a r e g i o n a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s . The former d e a l s with the means an i n d u s t r y chooses to l o c a t e i n a r e g i o n , and the l a t t e r with where i t l o c a t e s w i t h i n a given r e g i o n . Because waterway access i s not a v a i l a b l e i n a l l r e g i o n s i f i s a unique element capable of i n f l u e n c i n g the decison to choose a s p e c i f i c r e g i o n . At the i n t r a r e g i o n a l l e v e l i t o f f e r s a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e to i n d u s t r i e s that have a l r e a d y decided upon t h e i r r e g i o n , i n a d d i t i o n , i t w i l l be necessary to examine the importance of changing technology to both p o i n t s of view. 76 At the i n t e r r e g i o n a l l e v e l P r o b s t (1967) notes t h a t t e c h n i c a l and m a n a g e r i a l p r o g r e s s has s i g n i f i c a n t l y reduced the imp o r t a n c e of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t t c the l o c a t i o n of i n d u s t r y . In a s i m i l a r v e i n Friedman (1967) notes t h a t " the n a t i o n a l market i s becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y a c c e s s i b l e from a l l p o t e n t i a l l o c a t i o n s and e x t e r n a l economies can he o b t a i n e d cn p r a c t i c a l l y t h e same s c a l e i n a l l l a r g e m e t r o p o l i t a n r e g i o n s . " Be goes on t o e s t i m a t e t h a t p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s p r o b a b l y v a r y by l e s s than 10 p e r c e n t among a l t e r n a t i v e l o c a t i o n s and the d i f f e r e n c e may be d e c l i n i n g (Friedman: 1964). Luttrell«s (1962) s t u d i e s i n B r i t a i n i n d i c a t e d t h a t about t w o - t h i r d s o f B r i t i s h i n d u s t r y c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d " f o o t l o o s e " . I n e t h e r words the l o n g run p r o f i t a b i l i t y would be about the same i n a l l l o c a t i o n s . K araska (1969) adds f u r t h e r e v i d e n c e t o i n d i c a t e t h a t e x c e p t i n the case of heavy b u l k and p r o c e s s i n g a c t i v i t i e s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s a re p l a y i n g a d e c l i n i n g r o l e i n t h e l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n . He a l s o s u g g e s t s t h a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n may need t o be examined from the p o i n t o f view o f f l e x i b i l i t y , speed and a v a i l a b i l i t y of s u p p l y . Gray's (1971) f i n d i n g s s u g g e s t s i m i l a r c o n c l u s i o n s and i t i s s t a t e d : "as road f a c i l i t i e s expand t o c o a s t a l c e n t e r s i n the p r o v i n c e , g e n e r a l commodity t r a f f i c i s s t e a d i l y s h i f t i n g from from water t r a n s p o r t t o road t r a n s p o r t . 1 ' T h i s phenomenon i s o c c u r r i n g i n s p i t e of t h e s a v i n g s a v a i l a b l e i n u s i n g water t r a n s p o r t . A r e v i e w o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t f a c t o r a t the i n t r a r e g i o n a l l e v e l p o i n t s t o s i m i l a r c o n c l u s i o n s . A major r e a s o n f o r i n c r e a s e d m o b i l i t y was the i n v e n t i o n of the t r u c k . Hoses and W i l l i a m s o n (1967) note t h a t i t removed the dependence 77 on p r o x i m i t y to the r a i l w a y t e r m i n a l i n i t s e a r l y stage of development, and reduced the o v e r a l l importance of r a i l as i t was improved. Pred (1964) notes t h a t f l e x i b l e movement a f f o r d e d by improved roads and freeways now permits e f f i c i e n t l o c a l marketing from p e r i p h e r a l p o i n t s . Barloon (1965) adds t h a t low c o s t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s have been r e p l a c e d by the g r e a t e r importance of high speed s e r v i c e . He s t r e s s e s the value of s u p e r i o r s e r v i c e standards, s m a l l l o t movement, s h o r t door to door d e l i v e r y time, and a high p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of a r r i v a l time. S i m i l a r i l y Gray's (1971) study i n d i c a t e d a high preference f o r road t r a n s p o r t . The f i n d i n g s of a number of s t u d i e s based on g u e s t i o n a i r e surveys a l s o suggest a d e c l i n i n g r o l e f o r the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c t o r i n both i n t e r r e g i o n a l and i n t r a r e g i o n a l l o c a t i o n s . The Employer's C o u n c i l of B r i t i s h Columbia conducted a survey of secondary i n d u s t r y i n 1969. I t was concluded t h a t market o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i t h i n the r e g i o n and raw m a t e r i a l a v a i l a b i l i t y were the most s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s f o r both new and p r o s p e c t i v e i n d u s t r i e s . Transport f a c i l i t i e s ranked f i f t h and s i x t h r e s p e c t i v e l y . Evidence from Macmillan»s (1965) survey a r t i c l e suggests t h a t t h i s f i n d i n g i s t y p i c a l with the exception of t r a n s p o r t f a c i l i t i e s which u s u a l l y rank s l i g h t l y h i g h e r . A r e c e n t survey of p l a n t managers i n Vancouver by Richmond (1973) i n d i c a t e d t h a t nearness to markets, s k i l l e d l a b o u r , and t r u c k and r a i l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n were important to a l l i n d u s t r i a l c a t e g o r i e s , nearness f o markets was important f o r s m a l l e r f i r m s , and the importance of t r u c k t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i s s t r e s s e d . B a i l or water were important to resource p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s , 78 and nearness to markets f o r the non-resource based. The minor importance of water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n as a l o c a t i o n f a c t o r i s noted, and Bichmond observes t h a t t h i s i s i n d i c a t i v e of the f a c t t h a t only a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of Vancouver's manufacturing i n d u s t r y i s water o r i e n t e d . The r o l e of technology i n redu c i n g the importance c f water t r a n s p o r t to the l o c a t i o n of i n d u s t r y i s i n c r e a s i n g as new methods of cargo handling are i n t r o d u c e d . Of p a r t i c u l a r importance i s the move to c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n . F r a n k e l (1968) estimates t h a t 82 percent of the ge n e r a l cargo c u r r e n t l y moved on the world's oceans c o u l d be handled by c o n t a i n e r s , and the berths r e g u i r e d would be l e s s than 60 compared to s e v e r a l thousand c u r r e n t l y i n use i n U.S. p o r t s . Labour t e r m i n a l e f f i c i e n c i e s are i n c r e a s e d t e n f o l d , and s u b s t a n t i a l economies of s c a l e are i n t r o d u c e d by the v i r t u a l independence c f port time and u n i t c o n t a i n e r s h i p l o a d . As a r e s u l t there are major i n c e n t i v e s to conc e n t r a t e a c t i v i t y i n a few p o r t s and b u i l d a h i g h l y e f f i c i e n t road and r a i l feeder network. The c o n s o l i d a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n f u n c t i o n s give way to concentrated use of p r o d u c t i v e t r a n s p o r t f a c t o r s . C o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n has s e v e r a l i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n . Firms which c u r r e n t l y f i n d i t advantageous to have waterway access and s h i p d i r e c t l y may f i n d i t more economical to use c o n t a i n e r s loaded a t a s p e c i a l i z e d port f a c i l i t y . Savings w i l l accrue from being a b l e to s h i p goods as produced r a t h e r than b u i l d i n g the necessary s t o c k p i l e s to f i l l a s h i p , and a wider range of p o r t s w i l l be a v a i l a b l e as c o n t a i n e r s can be 79 placed i n s m a l l numbers on v e s s e l s bound f c r v a r i o u s d e s t i n a t i o n s . There are s e v e r a l examples of f i r m s which have found i t advantageous to use c o n t a i n e r t r a n s p o r t . The lumber i n d u s t r y f o r example, f r e q u e n t l y f i n d s i t more advantageous to use c o n t a i n e r s r a t h e r than e x i s t i n g waterway access which may be enjoyed (Rimes: 1971). Although not f u l l y c o n t a i n e r i z e d , the move t o the packaging of lumber has l e a d to the b u i l d i n g of an ultramodern lumber port and the phasing out of barging of lumber from m i l l s to p o r t areas f o r l o a d i n g over the s i d e (E.C. Research: 1967). Apedaile (1972) pro v i d e s an i n c r e a s i n g l y t y p i c a l example of an awkward cargo (newsprint) being taken by land to a s u s t a n t i a l l y more d i s t a n t port i n c o n t a i n e r s timed to c o i n c i d e with s h i p p i n g . Thus there i s c o n s i d e r a b l e evidence t c i n d i c a t e a s i g n i f i c a n t d e c l i n e i n the importance of waterway access f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n as a f a c t o r of p l a n t l o c a t i o n . Changing a t t i t u d e s demanding speed and f l e x i b i l i t y have, with the p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n of some re s o u r c e based f i r m s , lessened the d e s i r e to f i n d the t r a d i t i o n a l Weberian l e a s t - c o s t l o c a t i o n i n both the i n t e r r e g i o n a l case and the i n t r a r e g i o n a l case. The c u r r e n t t r e n d to c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n suggests t h a t f c r f i r m s who oust s h i p by water, g r e a t e r savings can be had by using road or r a i l f eeder l i n e s t o h i g h l y e f f i c i e n t port f a c i l i t i e s than by l o c a t i n g on the waterfront and s h i p p i n g d i r e c t l y . Thus, i t i s t e n t a t i v e l y suggested t h a t access to the waterway may net be the main determinant of the r e n t a l value c f shorelands. 80 b. B e l a t e d L o c a t i o n F a c t o r s Past s t u d i e s have i d e n t i f i e d a host of f a c t o r s which are s a i d to i n f l u e n c e i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n , but t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l be concerned only with those which, bes i d e s the waterway, may make shorelands a t t r a c t i v e to p r o s p e c t i v e f i r m s . Many f a c t o r s are r e l a t i v e l y uniform w i t h i n a r e g i o n , and these i n c l u d e wage r a t e s , taxes, labour supply, t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r a t e s and u t i l i t y r a t e s . However, three f a c t o r s may vary c o n s i d e r a b l y : p r o x i m i t y to c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t s , p a r c e l s i z e , and foundations. The f i r s t two of these f a c t o r s have been e x t e n s i v e l y i n v e s t i g a t e d by Goldberg (1969) and he notes that p l a n t s i n l e s s dense l o c a t i o n s have g r e a t e r i n t e r n a l r e t u r n s t c s c a l e than s i m i l a r p l a n t s at the c i t y c e n t e r ( i e . , they are l a r g e r and can i n t e r n a l i z e many of the s e r v i c e s t h a t a s m a l l p l a n t would have to c o n t r a c t o u t ) , and because space c o n s t r a i n t s at a given s i t e l i m i t the amount of growth a p l a n t can experience a p l a n t must move to a l e s s dense l o c a t i o n i f i t i s e x p e r i e n c i n g r a p i d growth. Goldberg*s argument i s supported by s e v e r a l other f i n d i n g s . Space f o r Industry noted t h a t the a b i l i t y of suburban areas to provide l a r g e p a r c e l s at r e l a t i v e l y low c o s t i s perhaps t h e i r key a t t r a c t i o n to new i n d u s t r y . C h i n i t z (1964) noted t h a t the g r e a t e r a v a i l a b i l i t y of open s i t e s i s probably the most important s i n g l e f a c t o r u n d e r l y i n g the move to the suburbs. Vernon (1960) s t a t e s t h a t s m a l l f i r m s are dependent cn goods and s e r v i c e s f o r production which they cannot provide themselves, and t h e r e f o r e have tended to choose more c e n t r a l downtown l o c a t i o n s . Hhen a f i r m grows i t no longer r e q u i r e s the b e n e f i t s of these e x t e r n a l economies as they are a b l e to i n t e r n a l i z e many 81 more of the functions needed for production. a related c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of firm growth i s the a b i l i t y tc r e a l i z e substantial economies of scale as a r e s u l t of the technology of mass production. This analysis has three main implications here. F i r s t , the shorelands on the Horth arm are l i k e l y tc exert an a t t r a c t i v e force for many small and medium size plants because of the proximity to the central business area. A related consideration might be that a waterway using firm may exert an a t t r a c t i v e force on related industry causing non-waterway using firms to locate on adjacent shorelands. Second, because most of the Fraser i s in a non-central and low density location, i t i s possible that larger firms w i l l be attracted to s i t e s cn i t s banks for that reason alone. and t h i r d , because large or expanding firms tend to seek sizeable parcels of land, and shoreland i s currently subdivided into very large l e t s (they range mainly between 30 and 50 acres; G.V.B.D.: 1971), i t may be d i f f i c u l t to distinguish between plants seeking waterway access and plants seeking larger s i t e s . Therefore, i t can be suggested that shoreland s i t e s carry an important rental value f c r reasons other than waterway access, and because of t h i s the importance attached to the waterway access component alone may be d i f f i c u l t to determine. The importance of foundations i s noted because much of the lower Mainland i s characterized by areas with very poor foundation conditions. Because the additional costs of f i l l and structures necessary to u t i l i z e these areas may be high, firms 82 w i l l place a g r e a t e r demand on lands with sounder f o o t i n g s . Foundations, t h e r e f o r e , may be an important component i n the r e n t a l value of s h o r e l a n d s . c. Firm Behavior The preceding suggests t h a t s e v e r a l f a c t o r s may i n f l u e n c e the r e n t a l value of s h o r e l a n d s . However, there i s a growing body of l i t e r a t u r e which suggests t h a t these f a c t o r s are of o n l y minor importance, and t h a t p a t t e r n s of i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n d i s p l a y a high degree of randomness (Smith: 1966). A number of e m p i r i c a l surveys have i n d i c a t e d t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l economic f a c t o r s are r e l a t i v e l y unimportant i n the c h o i c e of l o c a t i o n . Hunker (1958) f o r example, found that " i n i t i a t i v e and i n v e n t i v e n e s s have played an i m p e l l i n g r o l e i n the l o c a t i o n of n e a r l y 65% of Columbus' manufacturing e s t a b l i s h m e n t s . " H u e l l e r ( e t . a l . : 1961) found t h a t p e r s o n a l reasons or chance determined the l o c a t i o n c f 50% of 296 p l a n t s surveyed. In h i s review of ten l o c a t i o n surveys Turner (1971) a l s o notes the o v e r a l l importance of p e r s o n a l reasons. S e v e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s which might be suggested i n the preceding paragraph are s t r o n g l y r e i n f o r c e d i n Hodge's (1970) study of i n d u s t r i e s within a 100 mile r a d i u s of the Toronto r e g i o n . He attempted t o demonstrate the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between l o c a t i o n a l p a t t e r n s and the v a r i a b l e s , taxes, wages, t r a n s p o r t c o s t s , and land c o s t s . He found a low c o r r e l a t i o n with taxes and wages, no c o r r e l a t i o n with la n d p r i c e s , and only some c o r r e l a t i o n with t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s . There was no c o r r e l a t i o n 83 with t r a n s p o r t c o s t s f o r the 7000 p l a n t s l o c a t e d w i t h i n 50 miles of Toronto. "Thus the accumulated evidence of t h i s study i s that i n d u s t r y has not l o c a t e d a t those l o c a t i o n p o i n t s i n the m e t r o p o l i t a n r e g i o n which have the best c o n f i g u r a t i o n of l e a s t - c o s t f a c t o r s " (Hodge: 1970). Hodge attempts to e x p l a i n h i s f i n d i n g s by examining two p o s s i b l e hypotheses. He suggests that e i t h e r f i r m s are i r r a t i o n a l or l e a s t - c o s t f a c t o r s are not s i g n i f i c a n t enough to make a major impact. The importance c f each f a c t o r i s dependent on i t s share of the o v e r a l l p r o d u c t i o n c o s t . In the case of land he c i t e s O n t a r i o government f i g u r e s that i n d i c a t e t h a t even i n the h i g h e s t c o s t l o c a t i o n , land would r e p r e s e n t no mere than one-eighth of the t o t a l c a p i t a l investment (assuming a one acre p a r c e l , twelve workers, and $20,000 investment per worker). T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r i l y i n t e r e s t i n g i n l i g h t of the f a c t t h at land p r i c e s a t the c o r e are twenty times those at the p e r i p h e r y . He a l s o found t h a t f i r m s up to 40 miles from the cere could t r a n s p o r t to market and d i s t r i b u t i o n f a c i l i t i e s at c o s t s e q u i v a l e n t to those at the core. I t i s t h e r e f o r e concluded that f i r m s are r e l a t i v e l y i n d i f f e r e n t to l e a s t c o s t f a c t o r s , and i t i s suggested that amenity f a c t o r s such as c u l t u r a l and r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s may be a determining f a c t o r . The preceding o b s e r v a t i o n s have been used by r e s e a r c h e r s such as Townroe (1971) to argue t h a t an a l t e r n a t i v e theory of f i r m l o c a t i o n behavior i s needed. His approach attempts to e x p l a i n l o c a t i o n i n terms of behavior which i s governed mere by o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s than pure economic l o g i c . He 84 observes that i n d i v i d u a l f i r m s approach l o c a t i o n a l problems from d i f f e r i n g p o i n t s of view. Some c o n s i d e r i t a s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d managerial task, and o t h e r s c o n s i d e r i t a major d e c i s i o n upon which s u b s t a n t i a l r e s o u r c e s and e x p e r t i s e are brought to bear. In h i s r e s e a r c h he found t h a t most companies undertook a very l i m i t e d e v a l u a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e l o c a t i o n s , and th a t s e v e r a l companies were onl y l o o k i n g f o r the minimum reguirements s i t e . F r e g u e n t l y d e c i s i o n s were made g u i c k l y and before a thorough a n a l y s i s could be undertaken. In h i s survey 17/59 picked the f i r s t p o s s i b l e s i t e , and 40/59 pi c k e d the f i r s t " s a t i s f a c t o r y " s i t e ( s a t i s f a c t o r y i s d e f i n e d as l y i n g between minimal and o p t i m a l ) . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g to note t h a t l o c a t i c n a l d e c i s i o n s are unusual d e c i s i o n s f o r a f i r m t o make, and behavior i n t h i s case may not r e f l e c t the f i r m s normally s t r o n g l e a s t - c o s t goals. In a d d i t i o n i t might be added t h a t search c o s t s , e s p e c i a l l y i n terms of l o s t p r o d u c t i o n time, may s i g n i f i c a n t l y outweigh any b e n e f i t s t o be d e r v i e d from an o p t i m a l l o c a t i o n . Thus there i s a s u b s t a n t i a l body of t h e o r e t i c a l and e m p i r i c a l evidence suggesting t h a t l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s are h e a v i l y dependent on p e r s o n a l p r e f e r e n c e s and company o r g a n i z a t i o n . I t i s d o u b t f u l t h a t a uniguely optimal l o c a t i o n e x i s t s or i s i n f a c t found, and f i r m s are f r e g u e n t l y w i l l i n g to s e t t l e f o r the f i r s t f e a s i b l e l o c a t i o n . The a b i l i t y to be s a t i s f i e d by a sub-optimal s i t e probably reduces the number of e s s e n t i a l p r e r e q u i s a t e s f o r any given l o c a t i o n . Thus the r e n t a l value attached to shorelands, or indeed any la n d s , may not be very high. 85 d. Summary Three important o b s e r v a t i o n s can be drawn from t h i s review. F i r s t , shorelands may be important to some types c f f i r m s , but the o v e r a l l demand f o r them i s not great. Second, f a c t o r s of proximit y , p a r c e l s i z e , and f o u n d a t i o n s may be important elements i n the r e n t a l value of shorelands. T h i r d , i t appears t h a t f i r m s a t t a c h very l i t t l e value t o any p a r t i c u l a r l o c a t i o n . (2) Past attempts to Measure Opportunity Cost a. Q u a n t i t a t i v e Estimate of R e n t a l D i f f e r e n c e s L i n d has been a major proponent of using d i f f e r e n c e s among land r e n t s t o estimate the b e n e f i t s from proposed f l o o d p l a i n p r o t e c t i o n works. His approach i s based on the c l a s s i c a l theory of r e n t s where economic re n t i s d e f i n e d as " s u r p l u s earned by a p a r t i c u l a r f a c t o r of production over and above the minimum earnings necessary to induce i t to do i t s work" (Robinson: 1967). L i n d d e f i n e s the net b e n e f i t s as the aggregate d o l l a r values of the economic g a i n of f i r m s c r households that f i n d i t p r o f i t a b l e to move i n t o a f l o o d p l a i n once p r o t e c t i o n has been e s t a b l i s h e d . The o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of not p r o v i d i n g p r o t e c t i c n i s the value of those b e n e f i t s not r e a l i z e d . The measurement of the aggregate value c f the r e n t a l changes i n v o l v e s two main steps. Rephrasing h i s d e s c r i p t i o n i n terms of the shoreland s i t u a t i o n , i t would f i r s t be necessary to p r e d i c t which a c t i v i t i e s would move onto shorelands given i n d u s t r i a l zoning and municipal s e r v i c i n g . Then f c r each of the a c t i v i t i e s i t would be necessary t o know the new set cf r e n t s that would be r e a l i z e d . T h i s would i n v o l v e an accounting of the 86 c o s t s and s a v i n g s of waterway t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and of changed founda t i o n c o n d i t i o n s , p r o x i m i t y to business d i s t r i c t s , ground t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s , u t i l i t i e s a v a i l a b l e , and any other f a c t o r s r e l a t e d to s p e c i f i c i n d u s t r i e s . By summing these d i f f e r e n c e s , Lind argues, one can estimate the b e n e f i t s of i n d u s t r i a l use of shorelands. T h i s i s c l e a r l y a t a l l order and one may r i g h t l y q u e s t i o n i t s f e a s i b i l i t y . although A r v a n i t i d i s (1972) has a p p l i e d i t with some success t o r e s i d e n t i a l land uses, no other a p p l i c a t i o n s were found. (Lind only developed the t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s t r u c t s . ) In a d d i t i o n to these measurement problems, a number of conceptual d i f f i c u l t i e s were noted i n c o n s i d e r i n g the use of Lind»s approach i n the study area. L i n d c a u t i o n s t h a t i t i s only a p p l i c a b l e to r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l p r o j e c t s . The main reasons f o r t h i s are t h a t l a r g e p r o j e c t s may i n f l u e n c e p r i c e s f o r goods and s e r v i c e s produced on l a n d , and that the l o c a t i o n p a t t e r n w i l l not be known i n advance where development of a l a r g e r e g i o n i s concerned. The importance of the f i r s t g u a l i f i c a t i o n i n the F r a s e r i s u n c e r t a i n , but the second f a c t o r i s l i k e l y to be a l i m i t i n g element, as Koopmans and Beckman (1957) c a u t i o n , i t would be " g u i t e inadeguate" to assume t h a t the use of one l o c a t i o n does not depend on the use of another l o c a t i o n . a number of other more g e n e r a l i s s u e s r e l a t i n g to the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of r e n t a l value can be i n t r o d u c e d which l i m i t the d i r e c t use c f t h i s approach i n the shorezone. Two b a s i c assumptions of the t h e o r e t i c a l model are p e r f e c t knowledge and 87 pure economic m o t i v a t i o n . In other words i f a f l o o d p l a i n i s dyked or a new t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t y b u i l t and the land p a r c e l s a f f e c t e d take on a higher r e n t a l value, and t h i s change i n value i s used as a measure of b e n e f i t s , i n d u s t r i e s w i l l have to be aware of the d i f f e r e n c e and w i l l i n g to move i f t h i s measure i s to be a c c u r a t e , (Lind has a l s o assumed away the c o s t of moving). I f the c o s t savings to be r e a l i z e d from waterfront l o c a t i o n s are to be c o n s i d e r e d as o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s of not a l l o w i n g shoreland occupancy then they must be p e r c e i v e d and taken advantage of i f they are to be meaningful. But,-a look at the l i t e r a t u r e on i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n suggests that f i r m s are n e i t h e r w e l l informed nor r a t i o n a l (eg.. Hedge: 1970, Townroe: 1971). Because they do not c o n s i s t e n t l y respond to the a v a i l a b i l i t y of more v a l u a b l e l o c a t i o n s t h i s measure would r e f l e c t p o t e n t i a l r a t h e r than r e a l b e n e f i t s . I f an a l t e r n a t i v e argument i s posed, that f i r m s are both informed and r a t i o n a l i n t h a t i t i s not worth i t f o r them to move, the b e n e f i t estimate would be i n s i g n i f i c a n t . A second important i s s u e concerns the assumption cf p e r f e c t m o b i l i t y . Turvey (1957) notes t h a t " i f c o n d i t i o n s were d i f f e r e n t and b u i l d i n g s had very s h o r t l i v e s , the a c t u a l shape and form of a town would be c l o s e to i t s e q u i l i b r i u m p a t t e r n . " Because c a p i t a l improvements are placed on the l a n d , and the value of the land resource takes on these as w e l l as the land i t s e l f , the r e n t a l value of the land alone may not be the only c o n s i d e r a t i o n . " T h e r e f o r e , s h i f t s to uses that p l a c e s t r u c t u r e s on the land become v i r t u a l l y i r r e v e r s i b l e even when the supply and demand c o n d i t i o n s t h a t c r e a t e d the o r i g i n a l s h i f t have 88 a l t e r e d " ( C a l i f o r n i a : 1971). b. Q u a n t i t a t i v e Estimate Based on land P r i c e s In h i s a r t i c l e on n o n s t r u c t u r a l measures f o r f l o o d damage c o n t r o l J a m e s (1965) has developed a model based on land value data which are capable of e s t i m a t i n g the op p o r t u n i t y c o s t of not developing a f l o o d p l a i n . He argues that the "market value of land i s presumably the present worth of i t s f u t u r e time stream of expected net income or r e n t . " I t r e f l e c t s such advantages as a c c e s s i b i l i t y , f e r t i l i t y and fo u n d a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s . The main reason c i t e d f o r using land values i s p r i m a r i l y ease of measurement. To attempt to gauge o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t otherwise, he argues, would i n v o l v e a very complex and d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s . A g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y and foundation c o n d i t i o n s could be estimated from comparisons with nearby areas and the advantages of l o c a t i o n and a c c e s s i b i l i t y would have to be eval u a t e d on the b a s i s of p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s i t e s f o r development. Whether t h i s would occur w i t h i n or o u t s i d e of the r e g i o n would be of importance, and a major problem would be to develop a means f o r e v a l u a t i n g the impact of preventing development i n one area on the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s throughout the r e g i o n . The essence of J a m e s 1 method i s the s u b t r a c t i o n of the present value of the market p r i c e of a p a r c e l of land i n the f u t u r e from the c u r r e n t market p r i c e m u l t i p l i e d by a f a c t o r r e f l e c t i n g the p r o d u c t i v i t y of the s i t e f o r a given use. T h i s produces a value which es t i m a t e s the net urban c r developed 8 9 income. The annual l o c a t i o n c o s t of p r e v e n t i n g urban development d u r i n g a s p e c i f i e d p e r i o d can be determined by s u b t r a c t i n g out the p o s s i b l e net a g r i c u l t u r a l income and the p o s s i b l e net p u b l i c income i f urban use i s t o t a l l y excluded. Without d e s c r i b i n g the method i n f u r t h e r d e t a i l , the most important p o i n t of c o n t e n t i o n i s James 1 use of land values f o r the measurement of o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t . The importance placed on the r a t e of r e t u r n on a given land investment would tend to imply that urban u s e r s , and p a r t i c u l a r i l y i n d u s t r y i n t h i s case, l o c a t e d p r i m a r i l y on the b a s i s of land p r i c e s . T h i s n o t i o n would seem to be h i g h l y g u e s t i o n a b l e as the p r i c e of land to s e v e r a l urban uses, such as h i g h l y automated manufacturing, r e p r e s e n t s a very low p r o p o r t i o n of o v e r a l l investment at a s i t e . An examination of the i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e i n d i c a t e s t h a t the p r i c e of land i s not a major c o n s i d e r a t i o n . S t u d i e s i n Toronto by Kerr (1968) and Hodge (1970) i n d i c a t e d that land c o s t s d i d not make a d i f f e r e n c e to p l a n t l o c a t i o n . Hodge's study s t r o n g l y suggests an apparent i n d i f f e r e n c e to pure economic f a c t o r s . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s and tax r a t e s were a l s o i n c l u d e d i n the a n a l y s i s . Steed's (1972) a n a l y s i s of the l o c a t i o n a l dynamics of manufacturing i n Vancouver observed an i n t e r e s t i n g anomaly t h a t concurs with these f i n d i n g s . An u n u s u a l l y l a r g e number of s m a l l p l a n t s were found i n the o u t l y i n g a r e a s , while a great number of l a r g e p l a n t s were found near the c e n t r a l c i t y area. The g e n e r a l p a t t e r n i n other c i t i e s i s e x a c t l y o p p o s i t e as s m a l l f i r m s are u s u a l l y w i l l i n g to pay 90 high c e n t r a l area land c o s t s i n r e t u r n f o r access to the s e r v i c e s of other i n d u s t r i e s . Measurements c f the r a t e of r e t u r n per land p a r c e l type, t h e r e f o r e , are l i a b l e to y i e l d h i g h l y u n r e l i a b l e r e s u l t s . A more mechanical problem with using James* approach a r i s e s from the c h o i c e of land value data. M u n i c i p a l tax assessment r o l e s , r e a l e s t a t e company a p p r a i s a l s , and a c t u a l s a l e s p r i c e s are l i a b l e to be q u i t e d i f f e r e n t . L o c a l v a r i a t i o n s have a l s o been noted by Solzoan (1966) who found that non-waterway using p l a n t s u s u a l l y p a i d l e s s f o r a s i m i l a r p a r c e l than those h i g h l y dependent on access to the waterway; the vender having a d j u s t e d the p r i c e a c c o r d i n g l y . T h e r e f o r e , the use of land values to compute the r e n t a l value or o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t w i l l not produce a c o n s i s t e n t q u a n t i t a t i v e estimate. c. 0.uajitijtative Estimate of R e l o c a t i o n Cost A C a l i f o r n i a (1971) c o a s t a l zone study undertook a d i r e c t measurement of the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of not a l l o c a t i n g shorezone space to i n d u s t r y by asking i n d i v i d u a l f i r m s what a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s would be i n c u r r e d i f they were f o r c e d to seek an i n l a n d s i t e . , The measurement of o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t i n v o l v e d an i n t e r v i e w - q u e s t i o n n a i r e ; twelve r e p r e s e n t a t i v e use c a t e g o r i e s were surveyed. The q u e s t i o n n a i r e measured both e x t r a investment and e x t r a o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , but with numerous q u a l i f i c a t i o n s and assumptions. Among the study's c o n c l u s i o n s i t was noted, f o r example, t h a t a s m a l l p l a n t on the s h o r e l i n e may have to be c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r i f i t were to l o c a t e i n l a n d , and investment would have to more than compensate f o r the l o s s of 91 waterfrontage. The o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s a l s o f l u c t u a t e d a c c o r d i n g to v a r i a t i o n s i n p h y s i c a l geography and p r o x i m i t y to other developed areas. L o c a l supply and demand c o n d i t i o n s and t e c h n o l o g i c a l i d i o s y n c r a c i e s made i t d i f f i c u l t to c l a s s i f y meaningfully shoreland users a c c o r d i n g to dependency. The r e p o r t s t r e s s e s that a l l measurements are s p e c i f i c to the f i r m s c o n s u l t e d and they have l i m i t e d u t i l i t y o u t s i d e of that c o n t e x t . Because of the problems r a i s e d by t h i s study any d i r e c t measurement of o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t i n the same terras would have to be undertaken with c o n s i d e r a b l e care and w e l l g u a l i f i e d i n each case. However, i t i s not l i k e l y t h a t such measurements would need to be made i n the study area as i t s e s s e n t i a l l y vacant nature has placed the emphasis on f u t u r e needs r a t h e r than r e l o c a t i o n s . The only i n s t a n c e where they are unavoidable i s i n the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y ' s use of f o r e s h o r e and water l o t s f o r the storage of l o g s , but the problems a s s o c i a t e d with the c a l c u l a t i o n of the c o s t s of a l t e r n a t i v e methods of l o g storage are much l e s s complex. B. ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK FOR THIS STODY I t would appear t h a t L i n d ' s study p r o v i d e s the best means of e v a l u a t i n g s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t a t the c u r r e n t s t a t e of the a r t . I t i n v o l v e s an estimate of the r e n t a l d i f f e r e n c e s between shoreland and upland s i t e s . The procedure begins by f o r e c a s t i n g l a n d uses, and goes on to examine the c o s t s and 92 savings of s e v e r a l f a c t o r s which a f f e c t p r o d u c t i v e a c t i v i t i e s , such as f o u n d a t i o n s , waterway a c c e s s , p r o x i m i t y , and r e l a t e d s e r v i c e s . Despite the measurement and c o n c e p t u a l d i f f i c u l t i e s mentioned, t h i s approach would l i k e l y produce a reasonable estimate f o r a s m a l l f l o o d p l a i n or shoreland development p r o j e c t . However, a number of reasons can be c i t e d why the r e n t a l d i f f e r e n c e approach i s u n s u i t a b l e f o r t h i s study, at l e a s t at t h i s stage i n the study area's development. Formcst of the reasons i s t h a t L i n d ' s work was concerned only with immediate use. When he r e f e r s to f o r e c a s t i n g land use he i s o n l y concerned with a c t i v i t i e s which w i l l move onto a f l o o d p l a i n as soon as p r o t e c t i o n works are b u i l t . In t h i s study the concern i s with d i s t a n t r e t u r n s from a much l e s s p r e d i c t a b l e demand f o r waterway access over a long p e r i o d of time. When the shorelands have f i l l e d i n with more development and the nature of the demand i s more pronounced, a p p l i c a t i o n may be warranted. In so doing, however, i t c o u l d only be a p p l i e d to a s m a l l part of the study area where l o c a t i o n a l p a t t e r n s were w e l l determined i n order to avoid the problems a s s o c i a t e d with l o c a t i o n a l interdependence. Another i s s u e which was r a i s e d i n the l i t e r a t u r e review was t h a t r e n t a l value d i f f e r e n c e s may not be high enough to produce s i g n i f i c a n t e stimates. These o b s e r v a t i o n s suggest t h a t the best course c f a c t i o n which can be undertaken a t the present time i s a q u a l i t a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s . T h i s i s based on a review of the demand and supply f o r F r a s e r shorelands. Three 93 main c o n s i d e r a t i o n s are suggested by the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of c o n f l i c t s i n Chapter Four. F i r s t , i t w i l l be necessary to examine the demand and supply f o r waterway access because the p r e s e r v a t i o n of r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s would be at the expense of 9.6 m i l e s , or 16%, of the r e g i o n ' s vacant i n d u s t r i a l waterfrontage. Because t h i s i s most important, demand and supply w i l l be considered s e p a r a t e l y i n two s e c t i o n s : the f i r s t w i l l examine the r e n t a l value attached to waterway access, and the second w i l l compare the supply of waterway access with p r o j e c t e d demand f o r i t . , Second i t w i l l be necessary to c o n s i d e r the supply and demand f o r i n d u s t r i a l land i n the r e g i o n because the p r e s e r v a t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s would i n v o l v e the f o r g o i n g cf about 500 a c r e s , or 5%, of the r e g i o n ' s supply c f vacant i n d u s t r i a l l a n d . T h i r d , the c o s t of a l t e r n a t i v e l o g storage arrangements w i l l be e v a l u a t e d i n pecuniary terms to determine the c o s t of removing Q% of the log storage area i n f r o n t of major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . The remainder of t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l review the procedure f o r each phase of the a n a l y s i s . I t w i l l be d i v i d e d i n t o two s e c t i o n s : the f i r s t and most important concerns l i m i t i n g s h o r e l a n d use f o r new p l a n t s i t e s and the second concerns l o g storage removal a t major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . O ) L i m i t i n g Shoreland Dse f o r Sew g i a n t S i t e s a. Demand f o r Waterway Access T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l examine a number of i n d i c a t o r s of shoreland demand i n order to determine the r e n t a l value attached to s h o r e l a n d . T h i s w i l l not be c a l c u l a t e d i n pecuniary terms f o r the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t ; i t w i l l be based on a 94 q u a l i t a t i v e assessment of c u r r e n t shoreland use, r e c e n t t r e n d s , f i r m needs, r e l a t i v e land c o s t s , and s p e c i f i c changes i n i n d u s t r i a l s h o r e l a n d demands. Current Osg. A good understanding of the value placed on shoreland can be d e r i v e d from an a n a l y s i s of p a t t e r n s of occupation and use. The f i r s t step w i l l be the enumeration of e x i s t i n g i n d u s t r i a l users a c c o r d i n g t c two d i g i t c l a s s e s used i n the Standard I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Hanual (Canada: 1 9 7 0 ) . Any use an i n d u s t r y makes of the B i v e r , f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , water supply, or waste d i s c h a r g e , w i l l then be l i s t e d from f i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n , P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l Board permits and past s t u d i e s . T h i s w i l l produce t a b l e s showing types of i n d u s t r y and main use, which can be i n t e r p r e t e d to d e s c r i b e the g e n e r a l need f o r shoreland by type. 2§£®2i Trends. The second s t e p w i l l i n t r o d u c e the time of l o c a t i o n to the l i s t of shoreland p l a n t s i n order t c p l o t new i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n s by type f o r each year s i n c e 1960. T h i s w i l l i n d i c a t e the t r e n d s i n type c f i n d u s t r y l o c a t i n g over a twelve year p e r i o d which w i l l i d e n t i f y those i n d u s t r i e s which are not growing. By i n t r o d u c i n g the type of use i n f o r m a t i o n i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e to determine whether new p l a n t s are a c t u a l l y using the waterway, and f o r what purpose. Firm P r e f e r e n c e s . H h i l e some l o c a l i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n s t u d i e s w i l l be used, a survey was undertaken i n order to i d e n t i f y any r e g i o n a l deviance from the g e n e r a l p a t t e r n s which are suggested by the l i t e r a t u r e . I t was found t h a t many surveys of p l a n t managers were l i k e l y t o be u n r e l i a b l e , and i n 95 c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h a s p e c i a l i s t i n p l a n t l o c a t i o n , D r . M i k e G o l d b e r g , i t w a s d e c i d e d t o u n d e r t a k e a s u r v e y c f i n d u s t r i a l r e a l t o r s . B e c a u s e r e a l t o r s c o n s t a n t l y w o r k w i t h i n d u s t r y t h e y a r e m o r e l i k e l y t o b e a w a r e o f t h e n e e d s a n d p r e f e r e n c e s o f f i r m s t h a n i n d i v i d u a l p l a n t m a n a g e r s w h o m a y n o t e v e n h a v e b e e n i n v o l v e d . T h e g u e s t i o n n a i r e w a s d e s i g n e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e o v e r a l l i m p o r t a n c e o f s h o r e l a n d t o s p e c i f i c i n d u s t r i a l t y p e s , a n d i t i d e n t i f i e d t h o s e f o r w h i c h i t i s a b s o l u t e l y e s s e n t i a l . S p e c i f i c I n d u s t r i e s . I n t h e r e v i e w o f s t u d i e s o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d n e e d s i t w a s o b s e r v e d t h a t m a n y o f t h e f o r e c a s t i n g p r o b l e m s w h i c h w e r e e n c o u n t e r e d w e r e b a s e d o n t h e r e l i a n c e o n p a s t t r e n d s . T h e r e f o r e , i t w a s d e c i d e d t c e x a m i n e t h o s e f i r m s w h i c h a r e c o m m o n w a t e r w a y u s e r s b u t w h i c h m a y h a v e c h a n g i n g n e e d s i n t h e f u t u r e . T h e i m p o r t a n c e o f c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n t o t h e s h o r e l a n d n e e d s o f p o r t i n d u s t r y , a n d t h e g r o w t h r a t e o f t h e f o r e s t i n d u s t r y , c u r r e n t l y t h e m a j o r l a n d u s e r , w e r e e x a m i n e d . L a n d C o s t , M a r k e t v a l u e i n f o r m a t i o n c a n b e u t i l i z e d t o p r o v i d e a n i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i v e d e m a n d f o r l a n d i n c e r t a i n l o c a t i o n s . A l t h o u g h d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s o f l a n d v a l u e d a t a m a y v a r y , t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f v a r i o u s p a r c e l s c f l a n d i s l i k e l y t o r e m a i n f a i r l y c o n s t a n t , a n d i t i s s a f e t o r e l y o n o n e s o u r c e p r o v i d i n g t h a t i t i s o n l y u s e d f o r c o m p a r a t i v e p u r p o s e s a n d n o a t t e m p t i s m a d e t o c a l c u l a t e a n a c t u a l r e n t a l v a l u e . I n t h i s c a s e d a t a w a s a v a i l a b l e f r o m r e a l e s t a t e a p p r a i s e r s . T h e a n a l y s i s w i l l i l l u s t r a t e t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e w a t e r w a y a n d p r o x i m i t y t o d o w n t o w n a s d e t e r m i n a n t s o f l a n d 96 p r i c e s ; t h e r e f o r e , p r o v i d i n g a q u a l i t a t i v e i n d i c a t i o n c f the value placed on s h o r e l a n d s . The methodology f o r doing t h i s w i l l be borrowed from an e x c e l l e n t study by Solzman (1966) who used property value i n f o r m a t i o n to p l o t changes i n value along the Chicago Ship Canal t o determine whether shoreland was more v a l u a b l e because i t was shoreland or because of i t s proximity to the c i t y c e n t e r . S i m i l a r data are a v a i l a b l e f o r much of the study area and i t can be used i n a s i m i l a r manner along the length of the Main firm, as w e l l as to compare r i v e r f r o n t property values with other i n d u s t r i a l land values. (although the Chicago Ship Canal and the F r a s e r are not s t r i c t l y comparable because the Fr a s e r does not i n t e r s e c t the c e n t r a l Vancouver bus i n e s s d i s t r i c t , i t i s f r o n t e d by a s i g n i f i c a n t r e g i o n a l c e n t e r ) . Some data i s a v a i l a b l e f o r v a r i o u s years so i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o suggest whether demand i s i n c r e a s i n g or d e c r e a s i n g . b. Supply and Demand f o r Waterway S i t e s T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l be concerned with the supply and demand f o r waterway s i t e s i n terms miles of usable waterfrontage. F o l l o w i n g a review of past s t u d i e s of i n d u s t r i a l waterfront needs i n the study a r e a , the d i s c u s s i o n w i l l examine the c a p a c i t y of shorelands and p r o j e c t p o s s i b l e r a t e s of occ u p a t i o n . Past S t u d i e s . Because other s t u d i e s , p a r t i c u l a r i t y Space f o r Industry (G.V.R.D.: 1971) and Dynamics of I n d u s t r i a l Land Settlement (L.M.R.P.B.: 1961), have made a number of o b s e r v a t i o n s and p r e d i c t i o n s concerning the F r a s e r , these w i l l be introduced at t h i s p o i n t f o r a gen e r a l comparison. 97 C a p a c i t y of Shorelands. F i r s t , i t w i l l te necessary to e x a i a i n e the c a p a c i t y of shoreland s i t e s to accomodate new i n d u s t r i a l expansion. T h i s w i l l be done by comparing e x i s t i n g mileage used with p o t e n t i a l mileage a v a i l a b l e . A p o s s i b l e doubling or t r i p l i n g of shoreland occupation w i l l be p o s t u l a t e d to determine the c a p a c i t y of vacant land to absorb expansion without u t i l i z i n g any of the major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Bate o f Occupation. The second step w i l l be to examine the c u r r e n t r a t e of i n d u s t r i a l expansion on sh o r e l a n d s . Using the i n f o r m a t i o n generated i n the a n l y s i s of use and t r e n d s , a number of a l t e r n a t i v e r a t e s of growth are p o s t u l a t e d . These w i l l be used to suggest when shorelands are l i k e l y t c become f u l l y occupied f o r d i f f e r e n t types of use. c. Demand and Supply of I n d u s t r i a l Land The p o s s i b l e removal.of 5% of the r e g i o n ' s t o t a l supply of land designated i n d u s t r i a l may have an impact on the land market. An examination of the importance of the Fr a s e r shorelands as a p a r t of the r e g i o n ' s t o t a l supply of i n d u s t r i a l land w i l l be made p r i m a r i l y from a review c f Space f o r Industry. I t p r o v i d e s a d e t a i l e d i n v e n t o r y of the r e g i o n ' s supply of l a n d , and makes a s e r i e s of p r o j e c t i o n s of p o s s i b l e f u t u r e i n d u s t r i a l land needs. d. fiualitatiye E v a l u a t i o n of S o c i a l Opportunity Cost T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l summarize the f i n d i n g s of each of these s e c t i o n s i n order to provide a q u a l i t a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of the 9 8 s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of p r e s e r v i n g r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . (2) Log Storage A l t e r n a t i v e s C o n f l i c t with the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y ' s use of f o r e s h o r e and water l o t s f c r l o g storage was i d e n t i f i e d as the most immediate problem f a c i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l use o f the s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d . In order to a l l e v i a t e the c o n f l i c t other storage a l t e r n a t i v e s were considered which would not r e q u i r e the use of these s i t e s . The a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s were determined f o r each of three a l t e r n a t i v e s : r e l o c a t i o n , s easonal use a t r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , and bundle booming. 99 C h a p t e r S i x T h e S o c i a l O p p o r t u n i t y C o s t o f P r e s e r v i n g R e c r e a t i o n S i t e s _ A n A n a l y s i s o f t h e D g m a n d a n d S u p p l y o f I n d u s t r i a l S h o r e l a n d C h a p t e r F i v e c o n c l u d e d w i t h a d e t a i l e d o u t l i n e o f t h e a p p r o a c h a d o p t e d f o r e x a m i n i n g t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f p r e s e r v i n g t h e m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d i n C h a p t e r T h r e e . B a s e d o n t h e t w o m a i n t y p e s o f c o n f l i c t i d e n t i f i e d i n C h a p t e r F o u r , t h e a n a l y s i s w a s d i v i d e d i n t o t w o p a r t s . T h e f i r s t a n d m o s t i m p o r t a n t o f t h e s e c o n c e r n s t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f r e s t r i c t i n g t h e n u m b e r o f n e w p l a n t s w h i c h m i g h t b e a l l o w e d t o l o c a t e o n s h o r e l a n d . T h e s e c o n d p a r t i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h a n e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e c o s t o f l o g s t o r a g e a l t e r n a t i v e s w h i c h m i g h t b e u s e d t o f r e e m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l d e a l w i t h t h e f i r s t p h a s e o f t h e a n a l y s i s . T h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e p o s s i b l e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f l i m i t i n g n e w p l a n t l o c a t i o n s w i l l b e i n t h r e e p a r t s . F i r s t , e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e w i l l b e r e v i e w e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f w a t e r w a y a c c e s s a s a f a c t o r i n t h e r e n t a l v a l u e c f s h o r e l a n d . T h e e x a m i n a t i o n i s d e s i g n e d t o e v a l u a t e g u a l i t a t i v e l y t h e r e n t a l d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n s h o r e l a n d a n d u p l a n d i n d u s t r i a l s i t e s . S e c o n d , t h e a n a l y s i s w i l l q u a n t i v a t i v e l y e x a m i n e t h e s u p p l y c f 1 0 0 s h o r e l a n d s i t e s ( i n t e r m s c f l e n g t h o f s h o r e l i n e ) , a n d p r o j e c t s o m e p o s s i b l e r a t e s o f o c c u p a t i o n a c c o r d i n g t o a l t e r n a t i v e l e v e l s o f d e m a n d . T h i r d , t h e p r e s e r v a t i o n o f s h o r e l a n d s f o r r e c r e a t i o n w i l l b e e x a m i n e d i n t e r m s o f a p o s s i b l e r e d u c t i o n i n t h e r e g i o n ' s s u p p l y o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d . A . R E N T A L V A L U E O E W A T E R W A Y A C C E S S S e v e r a l f a c t o r s w e r e i d e n t i f i e d e a r l i e r a s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e r e n t a l v a l u e o f l a n d ( e g . f o u n d a t i o n s a n d s e r v i c e s ) , b u t t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l o n l y b e c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h a t v a l u e w h i c h i s a d d e d b y a c c e s s t o t h e w a t e r w a y f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . F o u r r e a s o n s w h y f i r m s c h o o s e w a t e r f r o n t l o c a t i o n s c a n b e c i t e d : ( a ) l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f w a t e r a r e r e q u i r e d f o r i n d u s t r i a l p u r p o s e s , ( b ) w a t e r f r o n t l o c a t i o n s a r e a d v a n t a g e o u s f o r t h e d i s p o s a l c f i n d u s t r i a l w a s t e s , ( c ) m a n u f a c t u r e o r p r o c e s s i n g o f w a t e r r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s ( e g . , f i s h i n g c a m p s , s h i p b u i l d i n g ) , ( d ) e i t h e r t h e r a w m a t e r i a l c r f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t i s t r a n s p o r t e d b y w a t e r . T h e r e a r e a n u m b e r o f r e a s o n s w h y o n l y t h e l a t t e r t w o c a t e g o r i e s a r e c o n s i d e r e d t o b e i m p o r t a n t i n t h i s s t u d y . I n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e u s e o f R i v e r w a t e r f o r i n d u s t r i a l p u r p o s e s i s d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n , b u t a c c o r d i n g t o G c l d i e ( 1 9 6 7 ) i t i s l i m i t e d . W a t e r u s e i s m a i n l y c o n f i n e d t o h e a v y d u t y c l e a n i n g o p e r a t i o n s a n d c a n b e s t b e d e s c r i b e d a s a n e x t r a 101 b e n e f i t of shoreland l o c a t i o n r a t h e r than as a determinant. T h i s p i c t u r e i s not l i k e l y to change i n the f o r s e e a b l e f u t u r e as Riv e r water i s too s i l t y f o r most purposes, and no supply problems from e x i s t i n g North Shore sources are e n v i s i o n e d by the Greater Vancouver Sewage and Drainage D i s t r i c t (Rees: 1972). In order to determine the importance of the waterway as an o u t l e t f o r i n d u s t r i a l wastes, l i s t s of P o l l u t i o n C o n t r o l Board permits were c o n s u l t e d . Information from t h i s source was i n c o n c l u s i v e , however, as examples of almost every type of f i r m had o u t l e t s . The only category i d e n t i f i e d with c o n s i s t e n t l y high volumes of dis c h a r g e was the food i n d u s t r y , and i t i s co n c e i v a b l e that a ready source of waste d i s p o s a l (the Fraser) was a l o c a t i o n d e t e r a i a n t . While t h i s may be c o r r e c t , the r e n t a l value o f r i v e r s i d e waste d i s p o s a l was not considered f c r two reasons. F i r s t , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h i s f a c t o r has been more important i n the past than i t w i l l be i n the f u t u r e as recent p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l r e g u l a t i o n s make i t d i f f i c u l t f o r f i r m s to dump huge amounts of untreated wastes d i r e c t l y i n t o the Ri v e r . Second, the c o s t of extending d i s c h a r g e pipes a few hundred f e e t to p r o v i d e access to the s h o r e l i n e was found to be a r e l a t i v e l y minor component i n the t o t a l investment made by new shoreland p l a n t s ( C a l i f o r n i a : 1971). (1) I n d u s t r i a l Use of F r a s e r Shorelands The purpose of t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l be to i d e n t i f y the kinds of i n d u s t r i e s occupying s h o r e l a n d , the nature and extent c f t h e i r use, and the main reaches of the Ri v e r where shoreland has teen developed. 102 Table F i v e , which i s based l a r g e l y on an ex t e n s i v e f i e l d survey i n the summer of 1973, i l l u s t r a t e s the importance of each of eleven c a t e g o r i e s of observed use. The f i r s t nine of these r e p r e s e n t the t i t l e s of two d i g i t Standard I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Manual c a t e g o r i e s , and the l a s t two are c a t c h a l l groups which i n c l u d e a number of d i v e r s e uses. Wood i n d u s t r i e s are c l e a r l y the most important i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y on the B i v e r , and they account f o r 2751 of the occupied s h c r e l a n d s . Non-metallic mineral i n d u s t r i e s occupy 115E, water t r a n s p o r t 65?, and metal f a b r i c a t i n g 45?; other i n d u s t r i a l uses vary between 1 and 355. Mixed uses account f o r as much of the s h o r e l i n e as the wood i n d u s t r i e s , but these can be de s c r i b e d as c o n s i d e r a b l y l e s s i n t e n s i v e uses i n t h a t much of the shoreland c l a s s i f i e d under t h i s heading i s made up of s m a l l f i s h i n g f l o a t s , o l d sheds, and houses with a s s o c i a t e d f i s h i n g a c t i v i t i e s . I t would probably be reasonable to c o n s i d e r much of t h i s shoreland vacant from the po i n t of view of i n d u s t r i a l expansion as the value of the s t r u c t u r e s themselves i s t y p i c a l l y low. 103 Table g i v e I n d u s t r i a l Oge of F r a s e r Shoreland (Fieldwork: 1973) |CATEGORY OF USE I I j |food and beverage i n d u s t r y |wood i n d u s t r i e s j ( i n c l u d i n g f u r n i t u r e indust.) Ipaper i n d u s t r i e s I NORTH ARM MILES (%N.ARM) 0.4 (2) MAIN ARM MILES (*M.ARM) 0.6 (3) i : — : 1 TOTAL MILES (TOTAL) 1.0 (3) 6.3 (37) 0.3 (2) 4.4 (19) 10.7 (27) -I 0.3 4 (1) 0.6 (1) |metal f a b r i c a t i n g 0.9 (5) 0.4 (2) 1.3 (4) — 4 | t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment j ( s h i p b u i l d i n g ) 0.4 (2) 0.5 (2) 0.9 (2) j |non-metallic mineral i n d u s t r y | ( i n c l u d i n g g r a v e l storage) Ichemical i n d u s t r i e s |water t r a n s p o r t 1.7 (10) 2.7 (12) 4.4 (11) 0.4 (2) 0 0.4 (2) 2.5 (11) 0.8 (2) 4 2.5 (6) |storage and warehousing | _ 0.6 (4) 0.5 (2) 1.1 (3) |mixed u s e s 1 ( f i s h i n g camps, | boat works, dredging,etc.) , . l o t h e r 1 ( i n s t i t u t i o n a l , | r e c r e a t i o n a l , etc.) 1 3.0 (17) 8.0 (35) 3.2 (19) 2.5 (11) - 4 11.0 (27) 5.7 (14) -4 4 — 4 - 1 117.2(100) |22.8 (100) |40.0 (100) | _ J : J L J |TOTAL 1. e v a l u a t i o n was p a r t i c u l a r i l y d i f f i c u l t i n these c a t e g o r i e s and they can only be c o n s i d e r e d as reasonable approximations to show orders of magnitude The two types of B i v e r use which w i l l be considered as prime generators o f r e n t a l value are the p r o c e s s i n g cf water r e l a t e d products and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . In the case of the former i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t major s h i p y a r d s , f i s h i n g camps and s h i p p i n g t e r m i n a l s have shoreland f o r waterway acc e s s . The s h o r e l i n e 1 04 l e n g t h o c c u p i e d b y t h e s e c a t e g o r i e s i s d i s p l a y e d i n T a b l e F i v e . I n t h e c a s e o f s h i p b u i l d i n g a n d w a t e r t r a n s p o r t 1 0 0 * o f t h e f i r m s o c c u p y i n g s h o r e l a n d u s e t h e w a t e r w a y . H o w e v e r , b e c a u s e " m i x e d u s e s " r e f e r s t o a l m o s t a n y d i f f i c u l t t o c l a s s i f y s h o r e l a n d s t r u c t u r e , a l l o f t h e l e n g t h c a n n o t b e c o n s i d e r e d a s u s e d . O f t h e f o u r u s e s l i s t e d , t h e u s e o f t h e w a t e r w a y f c r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n b y i n d u s t r i a l f i r m s i s t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n a s s e s s i n g t h e r e n t a l v a l u e a t t a c h e d t o s h o r e l a n d . B e c a u s e t h i s i s c l e a r l y t h e l a r g e s t u s e a d e t a i l e d e x a m i n a t i o n o f i t s c u r r e n t i m p o r t a n c e w a s m a d e . F o r e a c h o f t h e s h o r e l a n d i n d u s t r i a l c a t e g o r i e s i d e n t i f i e d a n a p p r o x i m a t e e s t i m a t e o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f s h o r e l a n d o c c u p i e r s a c t u a l l y u s i n g t h e w a t e r w a y f o r t h i s p u r p o s e w a s m a d e . B a s e d c n t h e f i r m s i d e n t f i e d i n a f i e l d s u r v e y t h e f o l l o w i n g l i s t s h o w s t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f f i r m s i n e a c h c a t e g o r y w h i c h u s e t h e w a t e r w a y f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p u r p o s e s : w o o d i n d u s t r i e s —> 9 0 % o r g r e a t e r n o n - m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l i n d u s t r i e s — 9 0 * o r g r e a t e r p a p e r i n d u s t r i e s — 3 0 - 5 0 * m e t a l f a b r i c a t i n g — 3 0 - 5 0 * s t o r a g e — 3 0 - 5 0 * c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r i e s — 2 0 * o r l e s s f o o d a n d b e v e r a g e i n d u s t r i e s — 2 0 * o r l e s s T h e p e r c e n t a g e s s h o w n a r e l i s t e d i n r o u n d f i g u r e s b e c a u s e i t w a s s o m e t i m e s d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e i f f i r m s a c t i v e l y u s e t h e w a t e r w a y o r i f t h e y u s e d i t a t o n e t i m e b u t n o l o n g e r Ao s o . A l s o a n a c c o u n t i n g b a s e d o n o n l y t w o p o s s i b l e c a t e g o r i e s , u s e r 105 a n d n o n - u s e r , m a y b e m i s l e a d i n g i n t h a t i n t e n s i t y c f u s e c a n v a r y f r o m a o n c e - m o n t h l y s h i p m e n t a t a n i m p o r t e d c a r u n l o a d i n g d o c k , t o s e v e r a l b a r g e l o a d s o f g r a v e l i n o n e d a y a t a c o n c r e t e m a n u f a c t u r i n g e s t a b l i s h m e n t . S i m i l a r i l y t h e i n t e n s i t y o f s h o r e l i n e u s e v a r i e s a s f i r m s m a y o n l y r e q u i r e c n e - g u a r t e r o f t h e a c t u a l f r o n t f o o t a g e t h e y o c c u p y f o r d o c k s p a c e . T a b l e F i v e a l s o i l l u s t r a t e s a m a r k e d t r e n d t o w a r d s p e c i f i c l o c a t i o n s . a l t h o u g h t h e N o r t h a r m o n l y h a s o n e - h a l f a s m u c h s h o r e l a n d d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l a s t h e M a i n a r m i t a c c o u n t s f o r H3t o f t h e t o t a l o c c u p i e d l e n g t h , a n d 4 8 % o f t h e l e n g t h t a k e n u p b y t h e n i n e s p e c i f i c i n d u s t r i a l c a t e g o r i e s . T h e f o r e s t i n d u s t r y a n d t h e n o n - m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l s a r e n o t i c a b l y m o r e c o n c e n t r a t e d i n t h e N o r t h a r m . B e c a u s e t h e N o r t h a r m i s c o n s i d e r a b l y c l o s e r t o t h e c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t t h a n o t h e r p a r t s o f t h e B i v e r i t i s p o s s i b l e t h i s m a y h a v e b e e n a n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n ( i t i s a b o u t o n e - h a l f o f t h e c o m m u t i n g t i m e a w a y c o m p a r e d t o o t h e r a r e a s , L . M . B . P . B . : 1961). T h i s o b s e r v a t i o n i s s u p p o r t e d b y F i g u r e O n e w h i c h s h o w s t h e n o r t h b a n k t c b e m o r e i n t e n s i v e l y u s e d t h a n t h e s o u t h b a n k o f t h e N o r t h a r m . T h e t e n d e n c y t o f a v o u r t h e N o r t h a r m i n d i c a t e s a g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e o f s h a l l o w w a t e r r a t h e r t h a n d e e p w a t e r o r i e n t e d u s e . A l a r g e n u m b e r o f f i r m s o n t h e M a i n a r m a l s o u s e o n l y s h a l l o w d r a f t f r o n t a g e , a n d a n u m b e r o f f i r m s o c c u p y i n g d e e p d r a f t s i t e s u t i l i z e t h e m o n l y f o r b a r g e o r b o o m i n g a c t i v i t i e s w h i c h r e g u i r e o n l y s h a l l o w d r a f t c a p a b i l i t y . I n t h e w o c d i n d u s t r i e s o n e m i l l u s e s i t s s i t e ' s d e e p d r a f t p o t e n t i a l , b u t e v e n t h i s h a s d e c l i n e d a s l u m b e r f r o m t h i s m i l l i s n o w t r u c k e d t o a c e n t r a l s h i p p i n g 1 0 6 t e r m i n a l i n B u r r a r d I n l e t . T h u s u s e o f t h e R i v e r o n a l l r e a c h e s i s m o r e o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s c o a s t a l m o v e m e n t s o f h e a v y o r b u l k p r o d u c t s t h a n t o d e e p s e a s h i p p i n g . A s i d e f r o m a c t u a l p e r t i n d u s t r y , t h e o n l y d e e p s e a u s e i s b y o n e f o o d p r o c e s s o r , o n e m e t a l f a b r i c a t o r , o n e n o n - m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l p r o d u c t s f i r m , a n d t w o s t o r a g e a n d w h o l e s a l e f i r m s . T h i s i s c l e a r l y a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f w e l l o v e r 2 0 0 s h o r e l a n d o c c u p y i n g f i r m s i n t h e s t u d y a r e a . F u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n c f s h o r e l a n d o c c u p i e r s r e v e a l e d t h a t 2835 o f a l l s h o r e l a n d u s e i n i n d u s t r i a l d e s i g n a t e d a r e a s w a s o n l a n d c o n s i d e r e d t o h a v e p o o r o r v e r y p o o r f o u n d a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s . A s m o s t o f t h i s i s i n t h e v i c i n i t y o f m a j o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r o u t e s t o t h e c e n t r a l b u s i n e s s d i s t r i c t o n t h e N o r t h A r m , a n d n e a r t h e P a t u l l o B r i d g e o n t h e B a i n A r m i t a p p e a r s l i k e l y t h a t t h e s e a r e t h e m a j o r i n f l u e n c e s o n i n d u s r i a l l o c a t i o n . A f i n a l s p a t i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n c o n c e r n s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f w a t e r w a y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n u s e r s . I n t h i s a d e f i n t e p a t t e r n e m e r g e d a s f e w e x a m p l e s o f n o n - u s e r s w e r e n o t e d o n t h e M a i n A r m , b u t o n t h e N o r t h A r m s e v e r a l w e r e f o u n d . M a j o r e x a m p l e s i n c l u d e d m e t a l f a b r i c a t o r s , a p a p e r b o x c o m p a n y , c h e m i c a l p l a n t s , b o a t b u i l d e r s , f o o d p r o c e s s o r s , a n d f u r n i t u r e m a k e r s . T h i s o b s e r v a t i o n w o u l d s u g g e s t t h a t f a c t o r s o t h e r t h a n w a t e r w a y a c c e s s h a v e b e e n i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s c f s h o r e l a n d s i t e u s e ; a n d p r o x i m i t y t o d o w n t o w n m a y a g a i n b e t h e v i t a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n . 107 ( 2 ) R e c e n t T r e n d s i n S h o r e l a n d P l a n t l o c a t i o n s I n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h a p i c t u r e c f t h e t r e n d s i n F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d i n d u s t r i a l o c c u p a t i o n a n d u s e . D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s l i s t s o f n e w i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e G . V . R . D . w e r e c o n s u l t e d f o r a t w e l v e y e a r p e r i o d b e t w e e n 1 9 6 0 a n d 1 9 7 2 . E a c h i n d u s t r y w a s c l a s s i f i e d i n t o t w o d i g i t S . I . C . C a t e g o r i e s a n d t h e s h o r e l a n d o c c u p i e r s d e t e r m i n e d f r o m t h e a d d r e s s e s p r o v i d e d . T h e y w e r e c l a s s i f i e d a s u s e r s a n d n o n - u s e r s f r o m f i e l d n o t e s u s e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n . A s a c r o s s - r e f e r e n c e s i m i l a r l i s t s p r e p a r e d b y t h e P r o v i n c i a l D e p a r t m e n t o f T r a d e a n d C o m m e r c e w e r e a l s o c o n s u l t e d , a n d t o e n s u r e t h a t n o s h o r e l a n d u s i n g f i r m s w e r e m i s s e d a n n u a l l i s t s o f f o r e s h o r e l e a s e h o l d e r s w e r e a l s o e x a m i n e d . A l t h o u g h t h e c o m p l e t e n e s s o f t h i s l i s t c a n n e v e r b e a s c e r t a i n e d t h e r e i s n o r e a s o n t o s u s p e c t t h a t i t f a v o u r s o r i g n o r e s a n y o n e s e c t o r , a n d i t i s l i k e l y t h a t a l l o f t h e m a j o r p l a n t s a r e i n c l u d e d b e c a u s e o r i g i n a l d a t a s o u r c e s i n c l u d e d b u i l d i n g p e r m i t s a n d t r a d e j o u r n a l s . H o w e v e r , b e c a u s e t h e d a t a d o e s n o t s h o w f i r m s g o i n g o u t o f b u s i n e s s , o r t h o s e t a k i n g o v e r a n e x i s t i n g o p e r a t i o n , t h e r e m a y b e m o r e n e w s t a r t s s h o w n t h a n t h e n u m b e r o f c u r r e n t l y o p e r a t i n g f i r m s . I n o r d e r t o i n c l u d e a r o u g h e s t i m a t e c f s i z e , d a t a o n a c r e a g e s o c c u p i e d b y e a c h f i r m w e r e p r o v i d e d b y M r . E . L e v e s g u e f r o m h i s s u r v e y o f i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t l o c a t i o n s . T h e m a i n r e s u l t s o f t h e i n v e s t i g a t i o n a r e s u m m a r i z e d i n T a b l e S i x . A t o t a l o f 1 1 9 4 n e w p l a n t s l o c a t e d w i t h i n t h e G . V . R . D . d u r i n g t h e t w e l v e y e a r p e r i o d , a n d o f t h a t 4 3 c h o s e F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d l o c a t i o n s . H o w e v e r , a m o r e r e v e a l i n g p i c t u r e c a n b e h a d i f we c o n s i d e r o n l y t h e f i r m s w h i c h o c c u p i e d o n e a c r e 108 or more, and the t o t a l i n t h i s case was 339, and of t h a t 37 were on the s h o r e l a n d s . With the e x c e p t i o n of f o u r s m a l l wood i n d u s t r i e s ( l e s s than one acre) most of the f i r m s were of the g r e a t e r than one acre i n s i z e . Examining each group i n d i v i d u a l l y i t can be seen that o n l y i| of 32 food and beverage i n d u s t r i e s l o c a t e d on the s h o r e l a n d s . l o o k i n g at the wood i n d u s t r i e s i t must be noted t h a t more than sawmills are i n c l u d e d i n the category, and t h a t a l l 10 of the new m i l l s l o c a t e d on the shore l a n d . Only 2 of the 63 other i n d u s t r i e s i n t h i s group chose shoreland s i t e s (eg., f u r n i t u r e i n d u s t r i e s ) . Of the m i l l s i t was a l s o noted that only two of them occupied more t h a t f i v e a c r e s . Very l i t t l e growth was experienced i n the paper i n d u s t r i e s and the one new shoreland o c c u p i e r was a non-user of the waterway. The o p p o r t u n i t y to u t i l i z e the waterway was taken by c n l y 3 of 44 new metal f a b r i c a t o r s , while two chose a shoreland s i t e without using i t s waterway access advantage. Four new b o a t b u i l d e r s were noted, and a l l o f these occupied s m a l l s i t e s with only shallow d r a f t c a p a b i l i t y . F r a s e r shorelands were c l e a r l y a t t r a c t i v e to n o n - m e t a l l i c mineral i n d u s t r i e s as n e a r l y one-half of these l o c a t e d there, and a l l of them were waterway us e r s . One new waterway using chemical i n d u s t r y was l o c a t e d from a t o t a l of 17 new ones, but i t was notably the l a r g e s t i n the group. Ho new s h i p p i n g t e r m i n a l s on the F r a s e r were reported i n the l i s t s but three o t h e r s were found elsewhere i n the r e g i o n . Major bulk t e r m i n a l s were l o c a t e d i n North Vancouver and Roberts Bank, and a major cargo t e r m i n a l was a l s o l o c a t e d i n North Vancouver. 1 0 9 Examining the areas which have a t t r a c t e d the l a r g e s t number of new f i r m s , the North Arm has c l e a r l y been the most a c t i v e . However, i t has a l s o a t t r a c t e d the g r e a t e s t number of non-users sugges t i n g that other f a c t o r s were more important than the waterway. Again nearness to downtown can be suggested. The a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of the North Arm a l s o i m p l i e s t h a t shallow d r a f t waterways are favoured; and on the Main Arm o n l y 6 of the 16 waterway us i n g f i r m s , 13 of which had at l e a s t p o r t o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y c a p a b i l i t y , u t i l i z e d t h e i r s i t e s f o r more than shallow d r a f t uses. I t was observed t h a t i n d u s t r i e s l o c a t i n g along the Bain Arm were g e n e r a l l y much l a r g e r than North Arm f i r m s , as 9 p l a n t s occupied 6 a c r e s or more, compared to only 3 p l a n t s i n t h i s group on the North Arm. 110 Table S i x New I n d u s t r i a l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s (D.B.S. and B.C.: 1960-1972) \ I f ooa hr | wood i n d u s t r i e s i n d u s t r i e s |paper i n d u s t r i e s |metal f a b r i c a t i n g I | t r a n s , eg. (boatbuilding) I n o n - m e t a l l i c minerals h jchemical i n d u s t r i e s {water t r a n s p o r t h Istorage and warehousing f . . i | a l l o ther r — HOBTH ABM new p l a n t s >1acre | (non-waterway j users) _ j — ^ . 2 (2) 7 (2) <* (2) 1 ( D 2 (D |TOTAL (7) MAIS |T0TAL |TOTAL ABM IBIVEB IGVBC _-1 +— I o v a c i |>1AC. I -+— 1 I r 1 | U (2) | 101 | 31 | 110 (2) | 190 ~h -+-1 (1) | 1 (1) | 22 | | 73 6 H I —I 4-j 5 (2) | 197 | 44 I 2 •4-I 9 -4 I -4-J 51 22 12 W^J*2 I 1 7 I 0 I 3 | 3 I 2 J 43 | 15 I ~ » I - H I —4 0 I 2 ( 1 ) | 508 I 122 •4-•4 L 14 (1) |37 (9) tTl94 |337 ~ j In a d d i t i o n to the i n f o r m a t i o n generated from an a n a l y s i s of new p l a n t s , an attempt was made to determine the a t t r a c t i o n of shorelands f o r new investment i n e s t a b l i s h e d p l a n t s . The l i s t s o f new i n d u s t r i e s compiled by the Province a l s o show the value of new investment, bat the data were not complete enough to use f o r a q u a n t i t a t i v e a n a l y s i s . However, i t can be observed t h a t f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s , metal f a b r i c a t o r s , and n o n - m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l i n d u s t r i e s on the F r a s e r shorelands were the most a c t i v e , but there i s no evidence t o suggest they were more a c t i v e than i n l a n d f i r m s . One n o t i c a b l e e x c e p t i o n , however, was 111 with s h i p p i n g t e r m i n a l s and c o n s i d e r a b l e amounts of c a p i t a l were spent to update and expand e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s . Thus i t can be seen t h a t F r a s e r shorelands have net been a major a t t r a c t i v e f o r c e f o r p r o s p e c t i v e new f i r m s i n the G.V.B.D. and l e s s than 10% of the new p l a n t s over one acre i n s i z e were waterway u s e r s . The F r a s e r has c l e a r l y been most important to new sawmills and n o n - m e t a l l i c m i n e r a l i n d u s t r i e s , and only o c c a s i o n a l l y important to other i n d u s t r i e s . Shallow d r a f t c a p a b i l i t y and the North Arm are a l s o n o t i c a b l y favoured among new p l a n t s i t i n g s . The number.of non-using f i r m s along the North Arm would tend to suggest t h a t competition f o r waterway s i t e s i s not r e l a t e d so much to waterway access as to other f a c t o r s . (3) Firm Needs and Pr e f e r e n c e s The process o f shoreland a l l o c a t i o n would be made c o n s i d e r a b l y more simple i f i t was p o s s i b l e to know which f i r m s must have waterway access f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n purposes, and which f i r m s c o u l d e a s i l y do without. While t h i s study cannot c l a i m to have the answer i t i s f e l t t h a t a reasonable i n d i c a t i o n can be gotten from a survey of i n d u s t r i a l r e a l t o r s . Because they have an i n t i m a t e knowledge of i n d u s t r i a l needs, and because they w i l l tend t o be l e s s biased than p l a n t managers who w i l l be l o o k i n g at t h e i r d e c i s i o n i n r e t r o s p e c t ( i f i n f a c t they were even i n v o l v e d ) , they were chosen f o r the survey. A t o t a l of nine completed g u e s t i o n n a i r e s . They were chosen i n c o n s u l t a t i o n with the S e c r e t a r y of the Greater Vancouver S e a l E s t a t e Board, and every e f f o r t was made to s e l e c t the most knowledgable. 112 I t must be noted, however, t h a t c a u t i o n i s needed i n the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of g u e s t i o n a i r e r e s u l t s . "Inherent i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s , b i a s e s and mere i n a c c u r a c i e s , i n combination with an a p p e a l i n g elegance and s i m p l i c i t y pose obvious dangers f o r use by r e g i o n a l economic p o l i c y and planning a u t h o r i t i e s " (Nishioka and Krumme: 1973). F r e g u e n t l y r e s u l t s are presented i n a h i g h l y aggregated f a s h i o n which makes sweeping g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s about a l l types of i n d u s t r i e s . Often the g u e s t i o n a i r e s l i s t a number of f a c t o r s t o be ranked, and i n so doing a u t o m a t i c a l l y l i m i t the respondents p e r c e p t i o n of the d e c i s i o n problem. For these reasons r e s u l t s of surveys must be c a r e f u l l y i n t e r p r e t e d . i n order to t r y to to a v o i d some of these p i t f a l l s an open ended g u e s t i o n a i r e was used (see Appendix I I I ) , and i t simply asked the r e a l t o r s t o l i s t the ten most important f a c t o r s f o r the l o c a t i o n of each category. They were then asked to place an E beside those which were co n s i d e r e d e s s e n t i a l . The c a t e g o r i e s used were those i d e n t i f i e d i n the v a r i o u s s e c t i o n s of t h i s chapter as being p r o s p e c t i v e shoreland users. The r e s u l t s are summarized i n Table Seven, and the ranked importance of waterfrontage i s shown f o r each. I t can be seen t h a t i n no case d i d the food and beverage i n d u s t r y or storage and warehousing need sh o r e l a n d a c c o r d i n g to the r e a l t c r s . In the wood i n d u s t r i e s the r e a l t o r s were informed that s a w m i l l i n g was the main i n t e r e s t and the r e s u l t s r e f l e c t the need f o r waterway l o g h a n d l i n g . The most i n t e r e s t i n g r e s u l t s were the n o n - m e t a l l i c minerals and the metal f a b r i c a t o r s which show up as 113 only o c c a s i o n a l l y r e q u i r i n g shoreland according to the r e a l t o r s . T h i s would seem to c o n t r a d i c t the c u r r e n t trends i n these s e c t o r s t o some extent. In the other i n d u s t r i a l groups i t i s f a i r t o i n t e r p r e t the r e a l t o r s as saying that waterway access would be p r e f e r a b l e by some but c l e a r l y not e s s e n t i a l . Table Seven R e s u l t s of Survey, of I n d u s t r i a l R e a l t o r s r - — | INDUSTRY TYPE I r — T T — — I — RESPONSE QF T ~ r t EACH REALTOR 1 1 "T 1 F Ifood industries • 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 i i 0 | . _.,_ i , . T 0 | 1 0 T 1 0 1 1 | 0 1 -4 I |wood industries i . 1 £ 1 E 1 E 1 E T I E | j — . E | i. < i E 1 ' 1 1 E " I 1 1 E r — •• — |paper industries i 1 E | 6 1 2 1 3 1 i 4 1 4 1 3 | i . 2 t 1 I E 1 1 I 3 i r |metal fabricators \ Ichemical ind. i *» 1 E | 0 0 t 0 0 1" 3 3 1 T 4 I 4-3 1 i T 3 1 2 1 i 0 3 1 1 1 1 0 2 • 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 •1 H i — |petroleum r e f i n . |non-metallic min. i _ . 1 1 | 3 ! 2 1 3 1 l 2 1 i _ r 2 1 3 • 1 1 I 2 E 1 E | i 0 1 3 1 T 3 1 , | 1 0 1 1 E 1 I 1 0 1 I 1 2 i r |storage i 1 1 -X. 0 1 0 i 1 0 1 1 0 -X- 0 1 i 0 1 . L-0 1 1 0 1 1 0 i E - waterway access i s e s s e n t i a l 0-10 - order of importance shown i n q u e s t i o n n a i r e D i s c u s s i o n s with i n d i v i d u a l r e a l t o r s i n d i c a t e d that p l a n t managers were seldom w e l l informed of the l o c a t i o n s a v a i l a b l e to them, or even of t h e i r own s i t e needs. The l e v e l of knowledge i s f r e g u e n t l y so low th a t a r e a l t o r must t e l l h i s c l i e n t what h i s needs are. The importance of the order i n which p l a n t s i t e s are v i s i t e d and p e r s o n a l i t y of the r e a l t o r were mentioned as being important. G e n e r a l l y the f i r m s are w i l l i n g to s e t t l e f o r an a c c e p t a b l e r a t e of r e t u r n r a t h e r than seek the l e a s t - c o s t 114 l o c a t i o n . The r e s u l t s of t h i s survey would appear to i n d i c a t e that shoreland i s e s s e n t i a l mainly to the s a w m i l l i n g i n d u s t r y , and that a number of o t h e r s p r e f e r i t . But on the whole the o p p o r t u n i t y f o r waterway t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a f f o r d e d by shoreland s i t e s was not e s s e n t i a l . I t was a l s o noted that f i r m s are net w e l l aware of t h e i r l o c a t i o n needs and f r e q u e n t l y choose t h e i r s i t e s a f t e r very l i t t l e d e l i b e r a t i o n . (4) S p e c i f i c I n d u s t r i e s At the o u t s e t i t was thought that an examination c f the p o s s i b l e growth of a l l i n d u s t r i e s r e g u i r i n g shorelands would be an important element i n the a n a l y s i s of demand. However, the examination of p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t i n Chapter Four, and the a n a l y s i s of e x i s t i n g use and r e c e n t trends i n d i c a t e d t h a t two s p e c i f i c c a t e g o r i e s — wood i n d u s t r i e s and port i n d u s t r i e s were of much g r e a t e r importance than a l l o t h e r s . The r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s were found to s t r o n g l y c o n f l i c t with l a n d s u i t a b l e f o r port i n d u s t r y , and the wood i n d u s t r i e s were noted as the main shoreland user. The r e s u l t s of an examination c f t h e i r needs has s i g n i f i c a n t i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the F r a s e r which may outweigh any o b s e r v a t i o n s i n the remaining c a t e g o r i e s . The i m p l i c a t i o n s of c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n on pert i n d u s t r i a l needs f o r s h o r e l a n d are s i z e a b l e i n that much of Vancouver's gen e r a l cargo could be moved through one or two modern t e r m i n a l s which would occupy c o n s i d e r a b l y l e s s s h o r e l i n e foctage than e x i s t i n g types of docks. Although much land may be r e g u i r e d f o r 1 1 5 l o a d i n g a n d s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s d i r e c t l y b e h i n d t h e a c t u a l d o c k , t h e h i g h s p e e d w i t h w h i c h s h i p s a r e l o a d e d a n d u n l o a d e d g r e a t l y d e c r e a s e s t h e t i m e s p e n t i n p o r t , a n d t h u s r e d u c e s t h e n u m b e r o f d o c k s r e g u i r e d t o m o v e a c e r t a i n a m o u n t o f c a r g o . F r a n k e l ( 1 9 6 8 ) , i n h i s l a n d m a r k a r t i c l e , c i t e s e v i d e n c e w h i c h d e m o n s t r a t e s t h a t t h e s w i t c h t o c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n i n c r e a s e s s h i p p r o d u c t i v i t y b y a f a c t o r o f a b o u t 3 , w h i l e t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y o f d o c k , l a b o u r a n d t e r m i n a l r e s o u r c e s i n c r e a s e s b y a f a c t o r o f 1 0 . T h e t r e n d t o c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n o f w o r l d s h i p p i n g h a s n o w b e c o m e a r e a l i t y a n d t h e p o r t s i n t h e V a n c o u v e r a r e a h a v e a l r e a d y b e g u n t o c o n v e r t ( e g . C e n t e n n i a l P i e r ) . W h i l e c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n i s l i k e l y t o r e d u c e t h e n e e d f o r s h o r e l a n d i n t h e f u t u r e , o t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n w a s f o u n d w h i c h i n d i c a t e d t h a t g e n e r a l c a r g o w a s n o t l i k e l y t c b e t h e m a i n c o m p o n e n t o f a l l c a r g o s h i p p e d i n t h e f u t u r e . A c c o r d i n g t o E . C . R e s e a r c h C o u n c i l ( 1 9 6 7 ) f i n d i n g s , t h e t o t a l v o l u m e c f g e n e r a l c a r g o m o v e d t h r o u g h t h e p o r t o f V a n c o u v e r i n 1 9 6 6 w a s 2 . 7 2 m i l l i o n s h i p p i n g t o n s , w h i l e a s i m i l a r t o t a l f o r b u l k c a r g o w a s 9 . 8 5 m i l l i o n s h i p p i n g t o n s . A n d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r p r o j e c t i o n s , t h e f i g u r e f o r g e n e r a l c a r g o i s o n l y e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e t o 7 . 6 m i l l i o n s h i p p i n g t o n s b y 1 9 8 5 , w h i l e f o r b u l k c a r g o i t i s e x p e c t e d t o b e 3 8 . 2 m i l l i o n s h i p p i n g t o n s . O n t h i s b a s i s , t h e r e f o r e , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e n e e d f o r b u l k t e r m i n a l s w i l l b e o f g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e i n t h e f u t u r e . I t w a s o b s e r v e d p r e v i o u s l y t h a t t h e r e g i o n ' s t w o n e w b u l k t e r m i n a l s d i d n o t c h o o s e F r a s e r s i t e s . A n d f u r t h e r m o r e i t i s h i g h l y u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e R i v e r w i l l b e v e r y a t t r a c t i v e t o t h i s 116 a c t i v i t y i n the f u t u r e because of the 40 f o o t d r a f t l i m i t a t i o n . Current world s h i p p i n g trends are toward bulk c a r r i e r s drawing 60 t o 70 f e e t . According to Ross (1970), an acknowledged expert i n p o r t design, bulk t e r m i n a l developments should only be c o n s i d e r e d f o r harbours having p r e s e n t day depths to 72 f e e t and the a b i l i t y to go deeper i n the f u t u r e as r e q u i r e d . The p o s s i b l e growth of the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y was a l s o examined i n some d e t a i l as i t was found to be the major shoreland user. In t h i s case i n d u s t r y e x e c u t i v e s and harbour a u t h o r i t y o f f i c i a l s were f i r m l y i n agreement t h a t no new p l a n t s would be e s t a b l i s h e d i n the study area i n the f u t u r e . Because the a l l o w a b l e annual cut i n the c o a s t a l r e g i o n i s c u r r e n t l y being harvested the o n l y expansion l i k e l y i n the F r a s e r w i l l be from r e l o c a t i o n s from F a l s e Creek or E u r r a r d I n l e t . I t was a l s o observed t h a t a t l e a s t f o u r m i l l s have c l o s e d i n r e c e n t years, and the number of m i l l s i n the p r o v i n c e as a whole has decreased while the p r o d u c t i o n has i n c r e a s e d (B.C.: 1972), (5) V a l u a t i o n of Shoreland In Chapter Three i t was suggested t h a t market p r i c e s can be used to y i e l d an approximate i n d i c a t i o n of the value placed cn s h o r e l a n d by i n d u s t r i a l o p e r a t i o n s ( i n areas which are zoned i n d u s t r i a l ) . Data were obtained from i n t e r v i e w s with the land assessor who undertook a study of shoreland values f o r the Fraser R i v e r Harbour Commission to use f o r the establishment of r a t e s f o r t h e i r f o r e s h o r e and water l o t l e a s e s (Keenlyside: 1973), and from the Greater Vancouver Real E s t a t e Board's annual survey of i n d u s t r i a l land values. I t was analyzed i n two ways: 117 f i r s t , a p r o f i l e of land values was c o n s t r u c t e d along the Main Arm, and second, i n d u s t r i a l s horeland v a l u e s were compared with other i n d u s t r i a l areas i n the r e g i o n . Table E i g h t was c o n s t r u c t e d t o show the d i f f e r i n g land values along the north bank of the Main Arm. Values on the south bank were g e n e r a l l y more uniform and lower, and net shown. S i m i l a r data were not a v a i l a b l e f o r the North Arm. The t a b l e shows t h a t shorelands i n the v i c i n i t y of New Westminster c a r r y a much higher premium than other p a r t s of the channel. Shallow water fron t a g e areas near New Westminster are a l s o more expensive than a l l other areas along the S i v e r , most cf which had p o r t or po r t o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y c a p a b i l i t y . Annacis I s l a n d p r o p e r t y , the value of which i s d e r i v e d from long term l e a s e r a t e s , was no t a b l y above average, as was St e v e s t c n property. T h i s i l l u s t r a t e s a c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between pr o x i m i t y to the s e r v i c e s of an e s t a b l i s h e d i n d u s t r i a l area and higher land v a l u e s . The New Westminster area i s a l s o c l o s e r to the downtown Vancouver area than most other l o c a t i o n s so i t may be a t t r a c t i v e f o r t h i s reason as we l l as i n i t s own r i g h t as an i n d u s t r i a l a r e a. Areas w i t h i n a s i m i l a r commuting time to downtown (as shown i n L.M.R.P.B.: 1961) on the southern shore of L u l u I s l a n d d i d not c a r r y high v a l u e s , however, suggesting t h a t they are e i t h e r not p e r c e i v e d as being c l o s e , or that f i r m s f e a r the t r a f f i c b o t t l e n e c k s which develop on the freeway and the Oak S t r e e t B r i dge. 118 Table E i g h t Land Values Along; the North Bank of the Main Arm (Keenlyside: 1973) (thousands of d o l l a r s ) 0 10 20 30 UO 50 60 77 Steveston OOOOOOOOO XXOXXXXXXXXXXXX Ft.No.4Rd. 00000 XXXXXXXX Ft.No.7Rd. 00000 XXXXXXXXXXXEEEEEEEEEEEEEE Annacis Chan. 000 XXXXXX Annacis west 0000 XXXXX Annacis East 0000000000 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx New Best s h a l . 1 0000C0000000 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx New West deep OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCOOOOOOOOOO xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx F r a s e r M i l l s O O O O O O xxxxxxxxxxxx Coguitlam R. 00 XXXXXXXX P i t t R. 000 xxxxxxx 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 77 0 - 1969 X - 1973 E - estimated c o s t of f i l l 1. t h i s area i s at the entrance to the North Arm 119 G e n e r a l l y speaking areas with poor foundation c o n d i t i o n s were of low value compared to other areas but the d i f f e r e n c e was not g r e a t . In order t o o b t a i n a more accurate p i c t u r e of land values on poor f o u n d a t i o n s i n f o r m a t i o n was obtained on the c o s t of f i l l i n g i n areas of t h i s type f o r i n d u s t r i a l use. Using the f o o t of Number Seven Road as an example, the s i t e has a peat l a y e r up to 23 f e e t t h i c k r e s t i n g on s i l t y c l a y (B.C. Hydro: 1963). A s i m i l a r area, but with a t h i c k e r peat l a y e r was found to c o s t about $17,500 per acre to compact and r a i s e with sand, g r a v e l and hog f u e l (Swan-Wooster: 1972). when added to the lan d value t h i s r a i s e d the t o t a l market p r i c e of the land i n a usable form to about $31,000. T h i s i s s t i l l c o n s i d e r a b l y lower than the more c e n t r a l New Westminster l o c a t i o n . Some of the values may be s l i g h t l y lower because the p a r c e l s tend to be l a r g e r than average, t h e r e f o r e , commanding a lower per acre p r i c e . T able Nine shows a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e l i s t o f i n d u s t r i a l land values i n the Greater Vancouver Area. Although no data c c u l d be found f o r the North Arm the f i g u r e shown f o r the fiarine Drive area i s probably i n d i c a t i v e of north bank p r i c e s . As i t can be seen they are c o n s i d e r a b l y higher than any values on the Hain Arm, and they are c o n s i d e r a b l y higher than the comparable shallow d r a f t area near New Westminster. As i t was observed t h i s area has a t t r a c t e d most of the new i n d u s t r i a l development, and a c c o r d i n g l y land p r i c e s are higher; and s i m i l a r i l y we can suggest t h a t p r o x i m i t y to the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t i s a f a c t o r as w e l l . Examining the data f o r the other areas i t can be seen t h a t i n d u s t r i a l l a n d p r i c e s i n the G.V.R.D.. appear to 1 2 0 b e s t r o n g l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h p r o x i m i t y t o t h e d o w n t o w n a r e a . T h e a r e a s a r e g e n e r a l l y l i s t e d i n o r d e r o f i n c r e a s i n g t r a v e l t i m e f r o m d o w n t o w n a n d v a l u e s g e n e r a l l y f a l l a c c o r d i n g l y ( P e a r s o n : 1 9 7 2 , g r a p h e d t h e m a n d f o u n d t h e y f e l l a l m o s t e x p o n e n t i a l l y w i t h d i s t a n c e ) . L o o k i n g a t t h e F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s i n T a b l e E i g h t a n d t h e o t h e r a r e a s i n T a b l e N i n e i t i s r e a d i l y a p p a r e n t t h a t s h o r e l a n d s a r e a m o n g t h e l o w e s t p r i c e d i n d u s t r i a l l a n d s w i t h i n t h e r e g i o n . S i m i l a r w a t e r f r o n t l a n d w i t h a p o r t i n d u s t r y p o t e n t i a l i n N o r t h V a n c o u v e r i s c o n s i d e r a b l y h i g h e r p r i c e d t h a n F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d , e v e n w i t h t h e e s t i m a t e d c o s t o f f i l l i n c l u d e d . P r o p e r t y o n A n n a c i s I s l a n d , o n e o f t h e r e g i o n s b e t t e r i n d u s t r i a l e s t a t e s , i s m u c h l e s s t h a n h a l f a s v a l u a b l e a s i n L a k e C i t y I n d u s t r i a l E s t a t e d e s p i t e i t s w a t e r f r o n t p o t e n t i a l . 121 Table Mine T y p i c a l I n d u s t r i a l Land Values (Greater Vancouver Heal E s t a t e Board: 1969, 1970) r I a , ..... „ • — r ! i . 1969 T I 1 1973 i 1 l r ICambie to Bain | ( v i c i n i t y 2nd Avenue) i •„,,. , -, , „ - • • T 174000- 261000 1 1 348000-436000 1 i r " — - - — — • — - • - -|Boundary Boad i , „ 1 40000-50000 I 50000-60000 I ...J ? (Marine D r i v e area • 1 45000-60000 1 87000-131000 T J 1 ILougheed a t Boundary L ' , , 1 . 45000- 55000 1 70000-85000 J r I H i l l i n g d o n area i , , , . , . . , . _ , „ , . ,.„, 1 25000-35000 1 45000-65C00 i j 1 • (Lake C i t y i , . 1 45000-60000 1 70000-160000 1 i r . . ." : . |North Vancouver | (waterfront f i l l e d ) i . , 1 30000-50000 j 80000-100000 I _ i 1'. • (Port Coguitlam j (not waterfront) i _,., „,, ,,, _. ! 2500- 3500 j 30000-40000 1 i r —  (Bichmond j (not waterfront) i ....., X. 7500- 15000 L 25000-70000 1 _ J I n i t i a l l y i t was hoped t h a t more data could be obtained f o r a l o n g e r time span i n order to determine i f shorelands were i n c r e a s i n g or d e c r e a s i n g i n value, but only the twc years shown were a v a i l a b l e . However, i t can s t i l l be observed t h a t many of the r e g i o n ' s non-waterfront areas have more than doubled i n value over the past f i v e years, and i n Port Coguitlam the gain ranges from 400 to 1000%. In Table E i g h t i t can be observed that shorelands have b a r e l y kept pace, and almost no areas showed more than a 60 to 100% g a i n ; the main exc e p t i o n being the Marine Drive area which has gained r a p i d l y . However, the number of non-users i n the area suggests t h a t t h i s may be because of i t s p r o x i m i t y to downtown r a t h e r than i t s waterfront p o t e n t i a l . 122 Thus i t can be seen t h a t p r o x i m i t y to the F r a s e r Hiver has v i r t u a l l y no e f f e c t on land v a l u e s w i t h i n the r e g i o n . . Shoreland values appear to be determined by pr o x i m i t y t o Vancouver's c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t and to some extent New Westminster's. G e n e r a l l y , i n c r e a s e s i n value have been l e s s than i n more c e n t r a l p a r t s of the G.V.R.D. The f a c t t h a t shorelands on the North Arm, and on the banks of both arms c l o s e s t t c downtown are more v a l u a b l e than the banks on the opposite s i d e c f the River suggests t h a t the R i v e r may be a c t i n g as something of an impediment to the normal outward expansion of a growing i n d u s t r i a l base. I t can be argued from t h i s evidence t h a t because shorelands do not now c a r r y a high market value they are not i n great demand compared to other l o c a t i o n s . . The d i f f e r e n t i a l i n r e n t a l value of the sho r e l a n d , i f market p r i c e s can be used as a proxy, may be negative other t h i n g s being e q u a l . That i s , i n s t e a d of shorelands being more v a l u a b l e because of waterway access , t h i s f a c t o r i s h e a v i l y outweighed by o t h e r s . (6) Summary, A great deal of evidence can be found which i n d i c a t e s t h a t shorelands do not on the whole c a r r y a higher d i f f e r e n t i a l value r e l a t i v e to upland s i t e s . A l a r g e number of f i r m s do net use i t s waterway access a t t r i b u t e and i n d u s t r i a l s e t t l e m e n t i s more c l e a r l y o r i e n t e d to the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t than the wa t e r f r o n t . The River has not been very a t t r a c t i v e to new p l a n t l o c a t i o n s i n the r e g i o n as only the wood i n d u s t r i e s and the n o n - m e t a l l i c mineral i n d u s t r i e s favour i t c o n s i s t e n t l y . T h i s 123 o b s e r v a t i o n of low demand f o r waterway access was s t r o n g l y r e i n f o r c e d by the r e a l t o r s survey. While two i n d u s t r y c a t e g o r i e s noted, as well as por t i n d u s t r y , do place a high r e n t a l value on shoreland f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n uses, t h e i r competion f o r shoreland may not be enough to have a s i g n i f i c a n t a f f e c t on land v a l u e s . The wood i n d u s t r y i n p a r t i c u l a r i s not growing and the needs of the por t i n d u s t r y on the F r a s e r are not l i k e l y t o be g r e a t . An i n v e s t i g a t i o n of land p r i c e s , which might be used as an i n d i c a t o r of r e n t a l value, demonstrates t h a t shorelands have no s p e c i a l value i n the market p l a c e , and that p r o x i m i t y to c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t s i s f a r mere important f o r most f i r m s . T h e r e f o r e , i t can be concluded t h a t shorelands on the whole do not c a r r y a higher r e n t a l value f o r waterway access than s i m i l a r s i t e s i n l a n d . B. SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOB WATERWAY ACCESS: THE SOCIAL GPPOBTINTY COST OF UNEMPLOYED RESOURCES T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l be concerned with i n d i c a t i n g the c a p a c i t y of vacant lan d designated i n d u s t r i a l along the F r a s e r , and with e s t a b l i s h i n g when that c a p a c i t y might be exceeded. The approach d i f f e r s with previous s t u d i e s of i n d u s t r i a l needs f o r shoreland i n t h a t i t w i l l f o cus on s h o r e l i n e length r a t h e r than land area. T h i s approach was undertaken because concern i s p r i m a r i l y with waterway access r a t h e r than with i n d u s t r i a l l a n d , and because of the shortcomings noted i n prev i o u s s t u d i e s . These s t u d i e s w i l l be reviewed before examining the e m p i r i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n . 124 (1) Past P r e d i c t i o n s The r e s u l t s of t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n have so f a r i n d i c a t e d t h a t shorelands have very l i t t l e r e n t a l value to most f i r m s . As i t has been mentioned, re c e n t s t u d i e s of f u t u r e i n d u s t r i a l land needs have not reached the same c o n c l u s i o n , and an attempt w i l l he made to account f o r the d i f f e r e n c e . Although much outdated, probably the most thorough study of i n d u s t r i a l l a n d use and needs was p u b l i s h e d by the L.M.R.P.B. (1961), and i s e n t i t l e d Dynamics of I n d u s t r i a l land Settlement. Ten years l a t e r the G.V.R.D. pub l i s h e d a followup study e n t i t l e d Space f o r Indu s t r y . Two other r e l e v a n t s t u d i e s were done by the B.C. Research C o u n c i l but these p e r t a i n only to the North Arm. The o r i g i n a l L.B.R.P.B. study was l a r g e l y r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the a l l o c a t i o n s of shoreland to i n d u s t r i a l use i n the Region a l P l a n . The r e s u l t s of t h a t study are analyzed i n Space f o r Indu s t r y . I t was found t h a t o v e restimates were made i n most of the s e c t o r s and the reasons c i t e d i n c l u d e d i n c r e a s e d worker d e n s i t i e s ( i e . , labour and c a p i t a l s u b s t i t u t e d f o r land) as the region s h i f t e d from a pr o c e s s i n g to a f a b r i c a t i n g o r i e n t e d economy, and over optimism on the p a r t of i n d u s t r i a l i s t s surveyed. The f o r e c a s t land a b s o r b t i o n r a t e at deep water s i t e s was 73% higher than a c t u a l l y o c c u r r e d , and at shallow water s i t e s i t was 69% higher. Although f o r e c a s t s of upland use were at l e a s t 44% high the wat e r f r o n t s e c t o r was the most exaggerated. Despite the e r r o r s i n of the L.H.R.P.B. study. Space f o r Indus t r y went on to p r e d i c t a heavy demand f o r waterfront s i t e s 125 as w e l l , and i t s t a t e d that most of the r e g i o n ' s shoreland acreage would l i k e l y be taken up by the year 2 0 0 0 . Four crude methods were used f o r p r e d i c t i o n : average-population c o e f f i c i e n t , land a b s o r b t i o n r a t e , employment d e n s i t y f o r e c a s t , and l a n d per worker c o e f f i c i e n t . I t was noted t h a t about one-half of the i n d u s t r i a l l y used acreage i n m e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver has waterfrontage although i t i s occupied only by one-tenth of the f i r m s , and t h a t demand f o r w a t e r f r o n t s i t e s was g e n e r a l l y growing apace of the demand f o r upland s i t e s . The main users were l i s t e d as wood i n d u s t r i e s ( s a w m i l l i n g ) , f i s h canning, s h i p y a r d s , n o n - m e t a l l i c mineral i n d u s t r i e s , and petroleum r e f i n e r i e s . Of the l i s t the r e p o r t p r e d i c t e d wood and p e t r o c h e m i c a l s would be the main consumers of shoreland. The n o n - m e t a l l i c metal i n d u s t r i e s were p r e d i c t e d to grow s l i g h t l y and the remaining two not s i g n i f i c a n t l y . An a n a l y s i s of independent sources, however, i n d i c a t e d that the expansion i n the wood i n d u s t r y , to take the most important component, i s h i g h l y u n l i k e l y (Draeske: 1972). Furthermore, some of the p r e d i c t i o n s based on past trends may be m i s l e a d i n g . They were based on experience i n the m i d - s i x t i e s and cn p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e d employment which may not n e c e s s a r i l y lead to new p l a n t s i t e s . Another p o s s i b l e cause of o v e r e s t i m a t i n g the shoreland use i s based on the r e p o r t ' s o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t n e a r l y one-half of the acreage absorbed between 1960 and 1966 was taken up by water o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y . The p r e d i c t i o n i s based cn the assumption t h a t past t r e n d s w i l l continue and i t i s suggested that 355? of the acreage used w i l l be on the w a t e r f r o n t . Because i n t e n s i t y of use i s not c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e i r estimates of land 126 a b s o r b t i o n ( i e . , the whole s i t e which a p l a n t owns i s con s i d e r e d as used) i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t the es t i m a t e s are toe high. It was observed t h a t p l a n t s f r e q u e n t l y do not use the f u l l s h o r e l i n e length which they own, and f r e q u e n t l y o n l y use a s m a l l p o r t i o n of the s i t e area. I t i s suggested, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t a change i n municip a l s u b d i v i s i o n p o l i c y c o u l d e a s i l y e f f e c t the pa t t e r n of use and produce a d i f f e r e n t e s t i m a t e ; and much of the p r e d i c t e d expansion i n each s e c t o r which was based on employment estimates c o u l d occur at e x i s t i n g p l a n t s . An a d d i t i o n a l source of e r r o r concerns the p o s s i b l e reuse of land as o l d e r p l a n t s are demolished and new ones b u i l t on the same s i t e s . In 1958 the B.C. Research C o u n c i l undertook a study of the f u t u r e economic a c t i v i t y on the North Arm. At th a t time i t was p r e d i c t e d t h a t v i r t u a l l y a l l of the north bank and much of the Lulu I s l a n d s h o r e l i n e would be occupied by i n d u s t r y by 1965. However, i t was s t r e s s e d t h a t "new i n d u s t r y w i l l be e s t a b l i s h e d i n the area c h i e f l y because of the pressure of met r o p o l i t a n growth and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of l a n d , r a t h e r than because of the r i v e r . " The r e s u l t s of t h e i r study, based on a g u e s t i o n a i r e survey of a l l f i r m s on the banks, i d e n t i f i e d a number of f i r m s which o r i g i n a l l y l o c a t e d to use the Ri v e r f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n but have s i n c e switched t o r a i l or t r u c k (and i n p a r t i c u l a r c o a s t a l t r a f f i c which now goes by tr u c k and f e r r y ) . S e v e r a l p l a n t s which have never used the River s a i d they chose t h e i r l o c a t i o n because of cheap l a n d , s u i t a b l e premises, nearness t c s u p p l i e s and customers, or to escape u n s a t i s f a c t o r y c o n d i t i o n s elsewhere. They noted t h a t undeveloped shoreland areas had no s p e c i a l a t t r a c t i o n f o r i n d u s t r y , other than the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y , except 127 that they were a v a i l a b l e . Looking back at t h i s r e p o r t i t appears t h a t i t has o v e r s t a t e d the case i n two r e s p e c t s : i n d u s t r i a l development has not been as great as p r e d i c t e d , and while non-users of the waterway have been important new shoreland o c c u p i e r s they have not dominated to the extent p r e d i c t e d . The second study undertaken by the same o r g a n i z a t i o n was d i r e c t e d toward a c o s t - b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s of widening and deepening the North Arm channel (B.C. Research: 1970). In t h i s study i t was noted that many changes have occ u r r e d s i n c e 1958 but the e f f e c t on harbour u t i l i z a t i o n was s m a l l . A c t i v i t y amongst metal f a b r i c a t o r s and the sand and g r a v e l i n d u s t r y i s expected to be more important i n the f u t u r e , but i n the long term the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y w i l l c o ntinue to be most important. I t was noted t h a t no new m i l l s were l i k e l y but production at e x i s t i n g s i t e s was i n c r e a s i n g . The evidence presented i n t h i s review i s mixed. On the b a s i s of the L.H.R.P.B. and G.V.R.D. s t u d i e s i t would appear that f u t u r e i n d u s t r i a l demand w i l l be g r e a t . However, the methodology of Space f o r Industry was guestioned because of i t s r e l i a n c e on employment data, past trends and e x i s t i n g s i t e s i z e s . The two B.C. Research s t u d i e s appear to i n d i c a t e a much l e s s important r o l e f o r the waterway. 128 (2) C a p a c i t y of Shorelands A number of i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s have been i d e n t i f i e d which commonly choose waterfront s i t e s . Examples of most of these can be found on the F r a s e r but the l i s t w i l l be supplemented with others from the r e s t of the G.V.B.D. and from o u t s i d e the r e g i o n . The o b j e c t i v e of t h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l be t c determine how much i n d u s t r i a l growth could be accommodated on the Fraser shorelands b e f o r e i t would be necessary to u t i l i z e the areas which have been i d e n t i f i e d as major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . G e n e r a l l y the method simply i n v o l v e d d o u b l i n g the c u r r e n t length of s h o r e l i n e occupied, both by users and non-users, f o r each category i n the e n t i r e e n t i r e G.V.B.D. to give the f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e , and t r i p l i n g i t to produce a second a l t e r n a t i v e . Data f o r t h i s was taken from t h i s study and from Forward (1969), and the r e s u l t s are i n Table Ten. The only e x c e p t i o n s were i n the wood i n d u s t r i e s and the primary metals. In the former s t r o n g evidence was found i n d i c a t i n g t h a t no new p l a n t s were forthcoming i n the study area. A c c o r d i n g l y the f i r s t f i g u r e f o r wood i n d u s t r i e s i n Table Ten r e p r e s e n t s the amount needed f o r a t o t a l r e l o c a t i o n from Burrard I n l e t to the F r a s e r , and the second f i g u r e a r b i t r a r i l y adds another mile to r e p r e s e n t the e g u i v a l e n t of a new m i l l complex. The second e x c e p t i o n , primary metals, was i n t r o d u c e d because i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t i n d u s t r i e s not c u r r e n t l y found i n the G.V.B.D. may l o c a t e i n the Begicn i n the f u t u r e . In a review of i n f o r m a t i o n s u p p l i e d by the American Waterway 129 Operators Income, primary metals sere the only group which seemed to be p o t e n t i a l new shoreland o c c u p i e r s . Other types were discounted because the F r a s e r i s not comparable to an i n l a n d waterway i n t h a t i t s t r a f f i c i s o r i e n t e d to c o a s t a l and deepsea s h i p p i n g . Table Ten P o s s i b l e Future Shoreland Occupation (miles of s h o r e l i n e ) r — •' ~" I i , , . , „ , , . ... _,. , _____ — f. |ALTERS. #1 ._- — | ALTERS i . . 1 #2 . .4 r " 1  1 i , __.__._.__ j s h a l l * 1 deep 1 | s h a l l . 1 1 deep 1 1 |food i n d u s t r i e s t , , , , ,  1 1 1.5 1 1 1 3 1 . l r • • |wood i n d u s t r i e s i | 1.8 I I 2.8 1 1 l l |paper i n d u s t r i e s I 0.3 I I 0.6 1 1 j _„_ _ _____ __ r ™ |primary metals I 1 1 1 1 2 1 I 1 |metal f a b r i c a t o r s i , . I 1.0 1 0.5 1 2 1 1 1 I 1 r . . | t r a n s , e g . ( b o a t b u i l d i n g ) |chemical i n d u s t r i e s i ,, , - , . . _ | 0.4 I 0.6 * t 1.4 0.6 1 0.8 1~TT__ 1 + 2.8 1.2 1 -I 1 r |petroleum i n d u s t r i e s i 1 1 2.2 i 1 4.4 t . J I | n o n - m e t a l l i c minerals i ,„. , , 1 1 I 8.8 « 2 1 l I (storage and ware. 1 1 1.8 1 1 3.6 1 1 1 , , |TOTAL PORT ORIEMTED IHD. | 8.5 1 10 . 0 | 16.2 1 20.0 1 4 r — | water t r a n s p o r t i 5.9 I 1 11.8 1 1 „, .,,_. „_ _ _ _ _ _ ,„ „ |TOTAL i _. _ — 1 8.5 _x | 15.9 _ j. | 16.2 _ j .J. 31.8 _ J I t can be seen from the summary i n Table Eleven that a l l cf the e x i s t i n g s h o r e l a n d use i n every category i n the r e g i o n c o u l d about double and s t i l l be accommodated on F r a s e r shorelands i n 1 3 0 areas with f a i r to good f o u n d a t i o n s , and without having to u t i l i z e any major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . I f use was to t r i p l e a l l of the p o r t o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y c o u l d s t i l l be accommodated w i t h i n c u r r e n t l y designated i n d u s t r i a l areas, i n t h i s case, however, the p o r t i n d u s t r y would r e g u i r e more vacant land than i s shewn. But i f one-half of the l a n d p r e v i o u s l y c l a s s i f i e d as mixed uses were redeveloped, i t c o u l d e a s i l y be accommodated without having to u t i l i z e any major or s m a l l r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Table Eleven Vacant Shoreland and i t s C a p a c i t y f o r New Occupants (miles of s h o r e l i n e ) r - — T — T -j | v a c a n t | a l t . T — # 1 | a l t . i • » # 2 | . 4 r i j| shallow port | • . , i 3 4 . 3 | 8 . 5 1 i _ 1 6 . 2 ! —- 4 r — 1 | - g o o d / f a i r found. | i _ . „ i . „ _ „ _ | . 2 3 . 0 | _ .„ _, |., t 1 . . 4 . -i 1 1 | T 1 | -poor/v.poor found.) l ,n., . ,- •,— ,_ — _ . .- - ... .:. - , , .. 1 . 1 1 . 3 | T 1 r — — I | t o t a l deep p o r t | i , . , , , , i | _ 2 5 . 5 | I 1 5 . T 9 1 X-3 1 . 8 1 1 1 . i 1 - g o o d / f a i r found. 1 i , _,._ „ i 1 7 w 3 | I ! i 1 j 1 i | -poor/v.poor found.| t. — t . „ | 8 . 2 | j . , . ! 1 1 I j (3) Bate of Shoreland Occupation Based on a number c f p r o j e c t i o n s of f u t u r e i n d u s t r i a l acreage needed. Space f o r I n d u s t r y p r e d i c t e d the study area would exhaust i t s supply of vacant i n d u s t r i a l shoreland by the year 2 0 0 0 . However, because the problem here i s more concerned with a p o s s i b l e s c a r c i t y of waterway access a number cf simple p r o j e c t i o n s of s h o r e l i n e mileage needed were made. These were based on data used to examine r e c e n t t r e n d s i n p l a n t l o c a t i o n s , 131 and the measurements of le n g t h occupied were made cn l a r g e s c a l e maps. The curves are d e r i v e d by e x t r a p o l a t i n g the average annual r a t e s of new occu p a t i o n . F i g u r e Seven shows two p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r shorelands with deep port c a p a b i l i t y . F i r s t , p r o j e c t i n g the r a t e c f occupation by a l l types of a c t i v i t y , i t found t h a t s u f f i c i e n t lands were a v a i l a b l e t o about 2022. However, i f only uses which a c t u a l l y use deep water access were permitted, s u f f i c i e n t land i s a v a i l a b l e with good f o u n d a t i o n s t o 2042. The t o t a l supply would not be exhasted u n t i l the end of next c e n t u r y . F i g u r e E i g h t i n d i c a t e s t h a t shoreland o c c u p a t i o n i n shallow port areas c o u l d be accomodated to the year 2022 i f no r e g u l a t i o n s were imposed, with r e s t r i c t i o n t o waterway users only, and without any growth i n the wood i n d u s t r y , the shorelands c o u l d accomodate new p l a n t s a t l e a s t to the year 2052. Based on these o b s e r v a t i o n s i t would appear t h a t problems of shoreland s c a r c i t y are f a r o f f i n the f u t u r e . While s t r a i g h t l i n e p r o j e c t i o n s of t h i s kind must be i n t e r p r e t e d with c a u t i o n , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t they r e p r e s e n t upperbounds r a t h e r t h a t probable t r e n d s . Aside from the abundance of i n f o r m a t i o n i n d i c a t i n g a d e c l i n i n g demand f o r waterway access, these f i g u r e s are based on the observed width of a shoreland o c c u p i e r r a t h e r than the a c t u a l footage used. T h e r e f o r e , i f p l a n t s were more c l o s e l y spaced by f u r t h e r s u b d i v i s i o n of p a r c e l s , many more p l a n t s c o u l d be accomodated per s h o r e l i n e m i l e . 2072 e n 1 3 4 ( 4 ) S u m m a r y T h e a n a l y s i s i n t e r m s o f l e n g t h o f w a t e r w a y a c c e s s s t r o n g l y i n d i c a t e s t h a t v a c a n t s h o r e l a n d s a r e n o t l i k e l y t c b e s c a r c e i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . I t w a s f o u n d t h a t F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s c o u l d a c c o m o d a t e a d o u b l i n g o f a l l e x i s t i n g s t u d y a r e a s h o r e l a n d o c c u p a t i o n ( i n c l u d i n g n o n - w a t e r w a y u s e r s ) o n v a c a n t l a n d s d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l w i t h g o o d f o u n d a t i o n s , b u t w i t h o u t i n c l u d i n g t h e s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d f o r r e c r e a t i o n . S i m i a r i l y i f t h e p o o r f o u n d a t i o n l a n d s w e r e i n c l u d e d , t h e F r a s e r c c u l d a l m o s t a c c o m o d a t e a t r i p l i n g . H o w e v e r , e x t r a p o l a t i o n o f t h e c u r r e n t r a t e o f s h o r e l a n d o c c u p a t i o n i n d i c a t e d t h e F r a s e r c o u l d a c c o m o d a t e g r o w t h o f a l l c u r r e n t t y p e s o f i n d u s t r y f o u n d o n t h e s h o r e l a n d f o r a t l e a s t 5 0 y e a r s , i n b o t h s h a l l o w a n d d e e p p o r t a r e a s . I f t h e s h o r e l a n d s w e r e r e s t r i c e d t o w a t e r w a y u s i n g a c t i v i t i e s i n a l l a r e a s , a n d i f d e e p w a t e r u s i n g a c t i v i t i e s w e r e t h e o n l y u s e s p e r m i t t e d i n d e e p w a t e r a r e a s , t h e c a p a c i t y o f t h e s h o r e l a n d s i s a d e q u a t e f o r a t l e a s t 8 0 y e a r s . T h u s , i t c a n b e c o n c l u d e d b e c a u s e t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t s h o r e l a n d t o a c c o m o d a t e i n d u s t r y , a t l e a s t i n t h e f o r s e e a b l e f u t u r e , t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f p r e s e r v i n g t h e r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d i s z e r o i n t h e s h o r t r u n . C . D E M A N D A N D S 0 P P 1 X O F I N D U S T R I A L L A N D I n C h a p t e r F i v e i t w a s f o u n d t h a t p r e s e r v a t i o n c f a l l o f t h e m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s w o u l d i n v o l v e t h e d i s p l a c e m e n t o f a b o u t 5 0 0 a c r e s o f l a n d d e s i g n a t e d i n d u s t r i a l i n t h e R e g i o n a l P l a n . T h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f a n y a c t i o n t o s e t a s i d e t h e s e l a n d s 135 f o r r e c r e a t i o n are u n c e r t a i n , but s e v e r a l f a c t o r s suggest t h a t the e f f e c t on the land market would be s l i g h t . Looking at the t o t a l supply of i n d u s t r i a l l a n d . Space f o r I£^_istr_r concluded t h a t the r e g i o n would not be f a c i n g a shortage of i n d u s t r i a l land i n the f u t u r e . " I t appears t h a t land shortage i t s e l f w i l l not be a d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n t on i n d u s t r i a l growth i n the r e g i o n i n t h i s century i f a p p r o p r i a t e p o l i c i e s f o r r e s e r v i n g and s e r v i c i n g land f o r i n d u s t r y are a c t i v e l y pursued" (G.V.B.D.: 1971)., The r e p o r t c a u t i o n s t h a t the r e g i o n must s e t a s i d e f o r i n d u s t r y those s i t e s which are p a r t i c u l a r i l y a t t r a c t i v e to i n d u s t r y . On the b a s i s o f these f i n d i n g s i t would appear t h a t the r e d u c t i o n i n t o t a l supply i s l e s s important than the type of lands which would be taken out of i n d u s t r i a l d e s i g n a t i o n . A key i n g r e d i e n t i n the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f land to i n d u s t r y has been i t s p r o x i m i t y to urban c o r e s . Space f o r Industry noted t h a t the g r e a t e s t number of f i r m s and the l a r g e s t acreages developed were wi t h i n 30 minutes d r i v i n g time of downtown Vancouver. Eecause much of the F r a s e r , with the ex c e p t i o n of the Berth Arm, i s beyond t h i s l i m i t i t i s not p a r t i c u l a r i l y a t t r a c t i v e to new f i r m s . An important c o n s i d e r a t i o n of some f i r m s has been the s i z e of p a r c e l s a v a i l a b l e . I t was noted t h a t l a r g e p a r c e l s of land were absorbed i n the 30 to 40 minute range of downtown. Eecause the shorelands tend to be broken i n t o r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e l o t s they are a t t r a c t i v e to some f i r m s f o r t h i s reason. However, i t was a l s o observed on l a r g e s c a l e maps t h a t f i r m s tend to own much 136 m o r e l a n d t h a n t h e y a c t u a l l y u t i l i z e , a n d t h a t a r e d u c t i o n i n p a r c e l s i z e w o u l d p r o m o t e a h i g h e r d e n s i t y o f u s e . a n o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d i s i t s f o u n d a t i o n s . W h i l e t h e r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d a p p e a r t o b e a b o u t e g u a l l y d i v i d e d b e t w e e n g o o d a n d p o o r f o u n d a t i o n s , t h e s g u a r e a r e a s o f t h e s e w e r e n o t c o m p u t e d b e c a u s e n o e s t i m a t e s o f t h e t o t a l a r e a o f g o o d a n d p o o r l a n d i n t h e r e g i o n a r e a v a i l a b l e . H o w e v e r , L e v e s g u e ( 1 9 7 4 ) h a s e x a m i n e d t h e a m o u n t o f i n d u s t r i a l d e s i g n a t e d l a n d i n t h e r e g i o n w i t h g o o d f o u n d a t i o n s , n e a r b y s e r v i c e s , a n d n o n - a g r i c l u t u r a l l a n d r e s e r v e s t a t u s . a l t h o u g h h i s e s t i m a t e o f 3 2 0 0 a c r e s o f r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e p r i m e i n d u s t r i a l l a n d d o e s n o t i n c l u d e a l l l a n d s w i t h g o o d f o u n d a t i o n s , i t i s u s e f u l t o n o t e t h a t n o n e o f t h e s e a r e a s w e r e f o u n d o n F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . L e v e s g u e h a s a l s o p r o j e c t e d t h e i n d u s t r i a l l a n d n e e d s f o r f o r t h e r e g i o n u n t i l t h e e n d o f t h e c e n t u r y . B a s e d c n h i s a n a l y s i s i t w a s f o u n d t h a t t h e r e g i o n m a y n o t r e g u i r e a s m u c h i n d u s t r i a l l a n d a s i t w a s t h o u g h t a t t h e t i m e t h e R e g i o n a l P l a n w a s f o r m u l a t e d . S i m i l a r i l y t h e t h e f o r e c a s t i n g t e c h n i q u e s o f _£ _£_? f o r I _ d u s t r j w e r e c r i t i c i z e d e a r l i e r , a n d i t w a s n o t e d t h a t s e v e r a l f a c t o r s m a y h a v e l e a d t o a n o v e r e s t i m a t e . O n t h e b a s i s o f t h e e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d i t i s s u g g e s t e d t h a t i n d u s t r i a l l a n d i s n o t s c a r c e i n t h e r e g i o n , a n d t h e r e m o v a l o f o n l y 5 * o f i t w i l l n o t h a v e a s e r i o u s e f f e c t o n t h e l a n d m a r k e t i n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . W h i l e s o m e l a n d s o n t h e N o r t h a r m a r e p a r t i c u l a r i l y v a l u a b l e b e c a u s e o f t h e i r p r o x i m i t y t o t h e u r b a n c o r e , v e r y l i t t l e r e c r e a t i o n a l l a n d w a s i d e n t i f i e d i n t h i s a r e a . 137 Land appears t o c a r r y a d e f i n i t e v a l u e i n l e s s c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n s i f i t i s a v a i l a b l e i n l a r g e p a r c e l s , but i t was a l s o noted t h a t p a r c e l s were c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r than they needed t o be. C e r t a i n s i t e s might be p r e s e r v e d both f o r i n d u s t r y and r e c r e a t i o n , by s i m p l y c u t t i n g them p a r a l l e l t o the B i v e r a t a p o i n t a few hundred f e e t from th e h i g h water mark. T h i s would not d e s t r o y the upland s i t e s p o t e n t i a l f o r l a r g e p l a n t s , and i t would p r e v e n t unnecessary o c c u p a t i o n of f o r e s h o r e by non-waterway u s i n g f i r m s . 138 Chapter Seven The S o c i a l Opportunity Cost of P r e s e r v i n g R e c r e a t i o n S i t e s j . fin A n a l y s i s of Leg Storage A l t e r n a t i v e s The c o n f l i c t between the l o g s torage a c t i v i t i e s c f the f o r e s t i n d u s t r y and the use of a l a r g e number of r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s was i d e n t i f i e d as the most immediate problem i n Chapter Four. While t h i s a c t i v i t y does not i n v o l v e the permanent d e s t r u c t i o n of n a t u r a l landscapes, i t does r e s t r i c t r e c r e a t i o n a l use of shoreland as s e v e r a l square miles of i n t e r t i d a l f o r e s h o r e and water l o t s are covered over by l o g booms. T h i s reduces the s i z e of a v a i l a b l e sand bars as w e l l as prevents fishermen from c a s t i n g t h e i r l i n e s . Although s e v e r a l miles of s h o r e l i n e are l i n e d with log booms the magnitude of the c o n f l i c t was not as great as i n i t i a l l y expected. Chapter Four r e v e a l e d t h a t about 6% of the e x i s t i n g storage area would need to be removed t c f r e e a l l key major s i t e s , and about 8% to f r e e a l l major s i t e s . The purpose of t h i s Chapter w i l l be t o examine p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r f r e e i n g r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , and attempt to e v a l u a t e the c o s t s of each. As i t was o u t l i n e d i n Chapter F i v e , monetary estimates w i l l be made where necessary to compare three a l t e r n a t i v e s 139 p o s s i b l e r e l o c a t i o n , s e a s o n a l storage use at c e r t a i n areas, and bundle booming. Information was obtained l a r g e l y from i n t e r v i e w s with f o r e s t i n d u s t r y e x e c u t i v e s . A. RELOCATION The f i r s t of two p o s s i b l e r e l o c a t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s concerned the moving of e x i s t i n g storage area f u r t h e r o f f s h o r e . Logs are c u r r e n t l y s t o r e d along the s h o r e l i n e between the highwater mark and the harbour h e a d l i n e , sometimes extending the f u l l width. Because l o g s cannot be s t o r e d o u t s i d e of the headline which i s drawn to secure adequate space f o r n a v i g a t i o n , companies f r e q u e n t l y move l o g s o n l y at high water times i n order to o b t a i n i n c r e a s e d width. T h i s p r a c t i s e p l a c e s severe r e s t r i c t i o n s on the r e c r e a t i o n a l use of many s i t e s as l o g s are s i t t i n g high and dry on many otherwise a t t r a c t i v e sandbars. In c r d e r to a l l e v i a t e t h i s c o n f l i c t , and a number of l e s s severe c o n f l i c t s where logs are s t o r e d only up to the low water mark, an attempt was made to determine a t which s i t e s l o g s could simply be moved f u r t h e r o f f s h o r e . However, the r e s u l t s of that i n v e s t i g a t i o n were not c o n c l u s i v e . Although i t was p o s s i b l e i n some s i t u a t i o n s , a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s would be i n c u r r e d i n using longer p i l e s to c o n s t r u c t d o l p h i n s , and i n some cases tugboat crews would be r e l u c t a n t to use these f a c i l i t i e s as i n c r e a s e d c u r r e n t s near the c e n t e r make working more dangerous. The next a l t e r n a t i v e c o n s i d e r e d r e l o c a t i o n elsewhere i n the R i v e r . The f u l l s torage c a p a c i t y of the North arm and much of 140 the Main Arm has already been f u l l y u t i l i z e d for several years and the only available space i s further up the P i t t Biver beyond the study area. S u f f i c i e n t areas are available at aid-channel points and no additional c o n f l i c t s would be introduced on P i t t shorelands. Using t h i s area as an alternative an attempt was made to calculate the cost of relocating 8% of the storage area. According to B r i t i s h Columbia Forest Service figures for 1970 to 1972, an average of 480 m i l l i o n cubic feet of logs are towed into the study area from the ocean each year. Because i t i s not clear which logs are used d i r e c t l y i t i s d i f f i c u l t to know what proportion would have to be stored i n the P i t t . To be on the safe side, i f we assume that 851 of the annual t o t a l brought into the Biver were to be stored on the P i t t , t h i s would represent 38.4 m i l l i o n cubic feet, and at 4000 cubic feet per average f l a t r a f t section, t h i s represents about 9660 sections. The a d d i t i o n a l towing costs calculated from Boundary Bead in the north Arm to the P i t t are $28 per section, and for the backhaul $17 per section, for a t o t a l of $45. At that rate the annual extra towing costs would be $435,000. In addition i t would be necessary to construct new dolphins i n the f i r s t year. I f 8% of the t o t a l storage area i s affected t h i s would amount to 136 acres or 1300 sections. Using a standard 10 p i l i n g dolphin at the head of each storage area, 1 p i l e per section thereafter, and a 4 p i l e dolphin every fourth section, about $100,000 would be involved (at $120 per p i l e ) . Assuming a 95? disccunt rate over 20 years this would amount to about $11,000 per year. Thus the t o t a l annual cost would be about $446,000. 1 4 1 The r e l i a b i l i t y of t h i s type of estimate i s always d i f f i c u l t to a s c e r t a i n but i t i s l i k e l y to be much higher than need be f o r a number of reasons: c l o s e r storage areas may be found, many booms would not need to be towed sc f a r , and the P i t t c o u l d be used more as a r e s e r v e area and used l e s s e x t e n s i v e l y than downstream grounds. B . , SEASONAL STORAGE The second a l t e r n a t i v e concerned the timing of bccm storage use at r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Because most outdoor a c t i v i t y takes plac e i n the summer months i t was f e l t t h a t a l e s s i n t e n s i v e use of booming grounds a t t h i s time might be taken advantage c f by r e s t r i c t i n g c e r t a i n grounds. The B r i t i s h Columbia F o r e s t S e r v i c e maintains monthly s t a t i s t i c s on the t o t a l number of logs s t o r e d i n the Hain Arm and these were used to c o n s t r u c t the graph i n Table Twelve. As i t can be seen the months from A p r i l to August are the l e a s t important times f o r l o g s t o r a g e . While a s i z a b l e i n v e n t o r y must be kept during the months of A p r i l , Hay and June i n order to a v o i d d i f f i c u l t towing c o n d i t i o n s , i t does not appear to be n e a r l y so important as the i n v e n t o r y needed to keep m i l l s at f u l l p r o d u c t i o n over the winter months when log g i n g i s d i f f i c u l t . I t might be noted, however, t h a t these f i g u r e s were net as expected f o r these times of the year because f o r e s t company o f f i c i a l s s t r e s s e d the need f o r high s p r i n g i n v e n t o r i e s . The only reason which was found f o r t h i s p o s s i b l e d e c l i n e i n 142 i m p o r t a n c e i s t h e a d v e n t o f m o r e p o w e r f u l t u g s w h i c h a r e c a p a b l e o f m o v i n g l o g s u p s t r e a m a t a n y t i m e o f t h e y e a r . I n a n y e v e n t t h e s u m m e r i n v e n t o r i e s a r e o f t h e o r d e r o f 1 5 t o 2 0 % s m a l l e r t h a n t h e f a l l a n d w i n t e r i n v e n t o r i e s . T h e r e f o r e , f o r e s t c o m p a n i e s c o u l d r e d i r e c t l o g s w h i c h w o u l d n o r m a l l y b e s t o r e d a t r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s t o o t h e r s t o r a g e g r o u n d s d u r i n g s u m m e r m o n t h s . T a b l e T w e l v e s u g g e s t s t h a t n o s i g n i f i c a n t c o s t s n e e d t o b e i n c u r r e d b y t h e c o m p a n i e s i n v o l v e d a s l e s s t h a n o n e - h a l f o f t h e a p p a r e n t s u m m e r t i m e s u r p l u s s t o r a g e a r e a w o u l d b e a f f e c t e d . ft p o s s i b l e m e a n s o f e n f o r c e m e n t m i g h t b e t h e g r a n t i n g o f l o g l e a s e s w h i c h a r e o n l y t e n a b l e f r o m m i d - S e p t e m b e r t o m i d - M a r c h . Table Twelve Average Monthly Log; Inventory i n the Mail! -.1 ( c a l c u l a t e d from B.C. F o r e s t S e r v i c e F i g u r e s : 1970-1972*) 6 5 0 — X X X X X X X X X X X 600 — X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 5 5 0 — X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 500 — X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 4 5 0 — X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 000 — — 650 — 600 — 5 5 0 — 500 — 4 5 0 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X jan mar may J u l sep nov feb }un aug oc t a p r z ( m i l l i o n s of c u b i c feet) dec 1. data given i n board measure was converted using a f a c t o r of s i x 2. an un u s u a l l y low f i g u r e f o r 1972 made t h i s month appear lower than normal 144 C . B U N D L E B O O H I N G The t h i r d a l t e r n a t i v e c o n s i d e r e d concerned the p o s s i b i l i t y of s h i f t i n g to other types of l o g handl i n g and st o r a g e . The most f e a s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e would i n v o l v e c o n v e r t i n g from f l a t r a f t s to bundle booms. A thorough study of t h i s type of l o g han d l i n g was made by F a i r b a i r n (1974) and only a general review i s necessary. The main advantage of bundle booms i s t h a t a complete changeover could f r e e about 40 to 50% of the t o t a l storage area c u r r e n t l y i n use. F a i r b a i r n c a l c u l a t e d the s o c i a l c o s t s and b e n e f i t s of a p o s s i b l e c o n v e r s i o n and found the b e n e f i t s to exceed the c o s t s i n each of three p o s t u a l t e d a l t e r n a t i v e s i t u a t i o n s . S i m i l a r i l y , the c a l c u l a t i o n from a p r i v a t e stance i n d i c a t e d t h at f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s would p r o f i t by such a move. The main c o s t s i n c l u d e new equipment f o r boom c o n s t r u c t i o n , dredging of shallow storage areas (bundles r e g u i r e up t o a 4 f o o t draught), and the c o n v e r s i o n of m i l l s to r e c e i v e bundles; the main b e n e f i t s accrue from reduced l o g l o s s , reduced towing charges, and fewer d e l i v e r y d e l a y s . The accuracy c f t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n appears to be high as s e v e r a l f i r m s are e i t h e r c o n s i d e r i n g , or have already begun to switch. However, F a i r b a i r n c a u t i o n s t h a t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n s may not apply t c some s m a l l e r m i l l o p e r a t i o n f o r which the b e n e f i t s may not exceed the c o s t s . These o b s e r v a t i o n s would seem to suggest that bundle booming on a major s c a l e i s not f a r o f f , e s p e c i a l l y i f some form of e f f l u e n t tax i s imposed i n order t o speed up the process. 145 T h i s w o u l d s o l v e a l l o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n c o n f l i c t p r o b l e m s o u t r i g h t i f H a r b o u r C o m m i s s i o n s e n s u r e d t h a t g r o u n d s a t r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s w e r e t h e f i r s t t o b e t a k e n o u t o f s e r v i c e . H o w e v e r , b e c a u s e t h i s m a y t a k e s o m e y e a r s t o h a p p e n i t c a n b e s u g g e s t e d t h a t m o r e i m m e d i a t e a c t i o n t o c a n c e l l e g s t o r a g e l e a s e s a t c e r t a i n s i t e s , p a r t i c u l a r i l y a t k e y r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , w o u l d i m p o s e v e r y l i t t l e f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n o n t h e i n d u s t r y . M u c h o f t h e c o s t i n v o l v e d i n t h e c h a n g e o v e r c a n b e a v o i d e d i n t h e s h o r t r u n . I t h a s b e e n e s t i m a t e d t h a t a b o u t 5 0 ? o f t h e s t o r a g e a r e a s a r e a l r e a d y d e e p e n o u g h t o a c c o m o d a t e b u n d l e s , a n d t h e b e n e f i t - c o s t r a t i o o f c o n v e r t i n g s o m e m i l l s i m m e d i a t e l y i s m u c h h i g h e r i f d r e d g i n g c o s t s a r e n o t i n c l u d e d . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s a r g u e d t h a t s e v e r a l o p e r a t i o n s c a n m a k e t h e c h a n g e v e r y p r o f i t a b l y a n d t h e s m a l l a m o u n t o f s p a c e n e e d e d f o r r e c r e a t i o n e a s i l y a c c o m o d a t e d . I t m u s t b e c a u t i o n e d , h o w e v e r , t h a t s o m e p r o b l e m s o f e q u i t y m a y a r i s e i f c e r t a i n c o m p a n i e s h a p p e n t o o w n a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l a r g e s h a r e e f t h e a f f e c t e d b o o m i n g g r o u n d s . H a r b o r C o m m i s s i o n p o l i c y i n t h i s c a s e w o u l d h a v e t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e b u r d e n o f s t o r a g e s p a c e f o r g o n e w a s s h a r e d e q u i t a b l y a m o n g t h e f i r m s i n v o l v e d . 146 D. . SUMMARY T h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n h a s i d e n t i f i e d t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s t o e x i s t i n g l o g s t o r a g e a r r a n g e m e n t s w h i c h m i g h t b e u s e d t c f r e e m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . T h e u s e o f s e a s o n a l s t o r a g e l e a s e s i s p a r t i c u l a r i l y a t t r a c t i v e i n t h e s h o r t r u n b e c a u s e a l l m a j o r s i t e s c o u l d b e f r e e d f r o m l o g s t o r a g e d u r i n g t h e s u m m e r m o n t h s w i t h o u t i n c u r r i n g e x t r a p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s . T h e u s e o f b u n d l e b o o m i n g s t o r a g e i s m o s t a p p e a l i n g a s i t w o u l d f r e e m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s a l l y e a r r o u n d . E v e n i f f u l l s c a l e c o n v e r s i o n i s u n l i k e l y i n t h e i m m e d i a t e f u t u r e , p a r t i a l c o n v e r s i o n c o u l d b e f o r c e d o n t h e i n d u s t r y b y s i m p l y n o t r e n e w i n g l e a s e s a t r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . B e c a u s e t h e b e n e f i t s w o u l d e x c e e d t h e c o s t s t o t h e i n d u s t r y , p a r t i c u l a r i l y s i n c e d r e d g i n g w o u l d n o t b e r e g u i r e d , i t c a n n o t b e c o n s i d e r e d a s a f i n a n c i a l b u r d e n o n t h e f i r m s . T h e r e f o r e , i t c a n b e s u g g e s t e d o n t h e b a s i s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s t h a t a t l e a s t t w o a v e n u e s a r e o p e n f o r f r e e i n g m a j o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , a n d t h a t t h e b e n e f i t s f o r g o n e i f s t o r a g e a t r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i s d i s c o n t i n u e d a r e n e g l i g i b l e . 147 C h a p t e r E i g h t S u m m a r y a n d C o n c l u s i o n s F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s h a v e b e e n t h e f o c u s o f i n c r e a s i n g i n t e r e s t o n t h e p a r t o f l o c a l r e c r e a t i o n i s t s s e e k i n g t c p r e s e r v e f i s h i n g b a r s a n d o t h e r n a t u r a l r e c r e a t i o n a r e a s . H o w e v e r , p a r t o f t h e a r e a ' s w a t e r f r o n t a g e i s c u r r e n t l y t a k e n u p b y i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s , a n d t h e R e g i o n a l P l a n h a s f a c i l i t a t e d a c o n t i n u e d g r o w t h i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l u s e o f s h o r e l a n d b y d e s i g n a t i n g t h e b u l k o f t h e l a r g e l y u n u s e d l a n d s f o r t h i s a c t i v i t y . I n a d d i t i o n t o c o n c e r n f o r i n d i s c r i m i n a t e d e v e l o p m e n t c f p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s f o r i n d u s t r i e s , r e c r e a t i o n i s t s h a v e a l s o s o u g h t t o f r e e m a n y r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s f r o m t h e f o r e s t i n d u s t r y ' s l o g s t o r a g e a c t i v i t i e s o n t h e f o r e s h o r e a n d a d j a c e n t w a t e r l o t s . I n l i g h t o f t h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s t h i s s t u d y b e g a n w i t h a r e v i e w o f e x i s t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s t o d e t e r m i n e i f t h e r e w a s a n y r e a s o n t o b e l i e v e t h a t s h o r e l a n d w a s n o t b e i n g a l l o c a t e d t o s e r v e t h e p u b l i c i n t e r e s t . T h e r e i s c l e a r e v i d e n c e t h a t b e c a u s e o f t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e p r i v a t e m a r k e t , p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s i n t e r v e n e i n t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f s h o r e l a n d . T h i s t h e s i s e x a m i n e s t h e i n f o r m a t i o n n e e d e d b y d e c i s i o n m a k e r s i n d e c i d i n g h o w s h o r e l a n d s s h o u l d b e a l l o c a t e d , a n d a t t e m p t s t o 1 4 8 f i l l s o m e o f t h e g a p s i n t h e i n f o r m a t i o n c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e . I n d e c i d i n g w h e t h e r i t i s a d v i s a b l e t o a l l o c a t e s h o r e l a n d t o r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e s , p u b l i c o f f i c i a l s m u s t , i n e f f e c t , d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r a g i v e n p a r c e l o f l a n d w i l l y i e l d g r e a t e r b e n e f i t s t o s o c i e t y i f u s e d f o r r e c r e a t i o n t h a n i f i t w e r e u s e d f o r o t h e r p u r p o s e s . A l t h o u g h m u c h o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n n e c e s s a r y f o r t h i s t y p e o f e v a l u a t i o n w a s c o l l e c t e d , w e i g h i n g t h e b e n e f i t s a n d c o s t s o f e a c h a l t e r n a t i v e s h o r e l a n d u s e i s a d i f f i c u l t t a s k b e c a u s e o f , a m o n g o t h e r r e a s o n s , t h e p r o b l e m s o f e v a l u a t i n g r e c r e a t i o n a l u s e . C o n f r o n t e d w i t h t h i s d i f f i c u l t y t h i s t h e s i s f o c u s e s u p o n t h e b e n e f i t s s o c i e t y w o u l d f o r g e i f c e r t a i n s h o r e l a n d s w e r e a l l o c a t e d t o r e c r e a t i o n . T h e s e b e n e f i t s f o r g o n e a r e r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e " s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t " o f p r e s e r v i n g s p e c i f i e d s i t e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n u s e s . T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l s u m m a r i z e t h e s t e p s t a k e n i n t h e e x a m i n a t i o n c f s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t a n d d r a w s o m e c o n c l u s i o n s b a s e d o n i t . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o u n d e r t a n d t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y t h a t a n a n a l y s i s o f s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t d o e s n o t a n s w e r a l l o f t h e q u e s t i o n s a d e c i s i o n m a k e r m i g h t w a n t a n s w e r e d . T h e v a l u e o f r e c r e a t i o n b e n e f i t s m a y s t i l l n e e d t c b e d e t e r m i n e d i n o r d e r t c m a k e a c o m p a r i s o n w i t h t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t e s t i m a t e . H o w e v e r , k n o w i n g s o m e t h i n g o f t h e s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c c s t a t t h e o u t s e t m a k e s t h e t a s k m u c h m o r e m a n a g e a b l e . 1U9 A . IDENTIFICATION OF RECREATION SITES For an e v a l u a t i o n of s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t to be meaningful i t was necessary to begin by i d e n t i f y i n g p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s which might be worth p r e s e r v i n g . Such an i n v e n t o r y i s a l s o u s e f u l because r e c r e a t i o n a l use of the F r a s e r has been a r e c e n t and l o c a l i z e d concern and very l i t t l e i s known about i t s r e c r e a t i o n p o t e n t i a l . In order to undertake the i n v e n t o r y i t was necessary to begin with an examination of p r e v i o u s approaches i n ether areas. I t was found t h a t some degree of s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n was necessary i n order to provide s u f f i c i e n t d e t a i l t c make the i n v e n t o r y meaningful. A c c o r d i n g l y , s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i a were developed f o r each p o s s i b l e a c t i v i t y from a review of the l i t e r a t u r e . Information was generated from a review c f recent r e p o r t s and i n t e r v i e w s with knowledgable informants, as w e l l as from e x t e n s i v e f i e l d i n v e s t i g a t i o n s . Four types of r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s were i d e n t i f i e d i n the i n v e n t o r y . A t o t a l of 32 s i t e s were c l a s s i f i e d as major s i t e s , and of these n e a r l y one-half were judged as key major s i t e s (or w e l l above average). Most of the major s i t e s were s u i t a b l e f o r beach a c t i v i t y , but the most important use was f o r sand bar f i s h i n g . Other a c t i v i t i e s such as beachcombing and viewing c o n t r i b u t e d to the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of the b e t t e r than average s i t e s . The t h i r d category of s i t e s i n v o l v e d l e s s i n t e n s i v e uses than the major s i t e s , and these i n c l u d e d p l e a s u r e d r i v i n g , c y c l i n g , and walking f o r pleasure. A s e r i e s of s m a l l s i t e s were i d e n t i f i e d , mainly on the North Arm, which a f f o r d e d views of the 150 R i v e r . B. CONFLICTS WITH INDOSTBI&L NEEDS In order to assess the nature and extent of e x i s t i n g and p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t s with i n d u s t r i a l use i t was necessary to begin with a survey of c u r r e n t shoreland use. Q u a n t i t a t i v e measurement found t h a t shorelands were e s s e n t i a l l y vacant or a g r i c u l t u r a l i n aspect, o n l y about one-quarter of the shoreland i s b u i l t upon, and of t h a t about 40* i s taken up with low i n t e n s i t y uses such as f i s h i n g sheds or storage yards. However, because the F r a s e r has a r a t h e r unique r o l e i n p r o v i d i n g a t r a n s p o r t medium and storage area f o r l o g s , a n a l y s i s based only on use by permanent p l a n t s t r u c t u r e s i s m i s l e a d i n g . In a l l but the lower reaches of the Main arm l o g storage o c c u p i e s s e v e r a l acres of water l o t s and i n t e r t i d a l f o r e s h o r e . While t h i s use does not i n v o l v e the permanent d e s t r u c t i o n of upland landscapes i n the same way t h a t a f a c t o r y s i t e may, i t was found to be an impediment to shoreland r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . The i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of c o n f l i c t s , t h e r e f o r e , examined c o n f l i c t s with f i x e d i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t i e s on the one hand, and with l o g storage on the o t h e r . The former was the most important, but the main concern was with p o t e n t i a l r a t h e r than e x i s t i n g uses. Because the Regional Plan has designated most of the study area shorelands f o r i n d u s t r y , about two-thirds of the major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s f e l l i n these areas. I t was found that about 10* of the s h o r e l i n e mileage designated f o r i n d u s t r i a l 151 uses was s u i t a b l e f o r major r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Two other f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c e the l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s of new p l a n t s : channel c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and foundations. Areas s u i t a b l e f o r both deep and shallow port use, and the f o u n d a t i o n s i n each, were i d e n t i f i e d f o r the shorelands designated i n d u s t r i a l . The most important c o n f l i c t i d e n t i f i e d i n t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n was with shoreland s u i t a b l e f o r p o r t and port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y with good f o u n d a t i o n s . The amount of s h o r e l i n e needed to preserve r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i n areas s u i t a b l e f o r shallow d r a f t c r port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r y was comparatively s m a l l . A separate a n a l y s i s of c o n f l i c t s i n terms c f t o t a l land area was a l s o undertaken. I t was found t h a t p r e s e r v a t i o n of a l l major s i t e s would r e g u i r e about 500 a c r e s , or 5* of the r e g i o n ' s supply of l a n d designated i n d u s t r i a l . An a n a l y s i s of e x i s t i n g c o n f l i c t s between r e c r e a t i o n areas and l o g s t o r a g e was conducted from maps showing the s i z e cf water l o t l e a s e s . At each major s i t e the minimum storage area that would need to be removed i n order to f r e e that s i t e f o r r e c r e a t i o n a l use was c a l c u l a t e d . I n d i v i d u a l estimates were t o t a l l e d and i t was found t h a t l e s s than 8* of the t o t a l storage area would have to be forgone i n order to f r e e a l l of the s i t e s . The c o n c l u s i o n of t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n was that i n d u s t r i a l - r e c r e a t i o n a l shoreland use c o n f l i c t s mainly i n v o l v e f u t u r e use by new p l a n t s and e x i s t i n g use f o r l o g storage. Because very l i t t l e upland area i s i n v o l v e d , the a n a l y s i s i d e n t i f i e d c o n f l i c t s with i n d u s t r i a l land, channel 152 c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and foundation c o n d i t i o n s i n terms c f s h o r e l i n e l e n g t h . The l a r g e s t p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t was with land s u i t a b l e f o r p o r t i n d u s t r i a l use. C o n f l i c t with l o g storage i n v o l v e d about Q% of the t o t a l s t orage area. C. ANALYTIC FBAMEKORK In order to provide d e c i s i o n makers with needed i n f o r m a t i o n f o r s h o r e l a n d a l l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s , a review of p o s s i b l e approaches was undertaken to determine the best d i r e c t i o n f o r t h i s study. The approach adopted was to examine the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of a l l o c a t i n g shorelands to r e c r e a t i o n a l use. Of p a r t i c u l a r concern was the assumption t h a t there i s a s c a r c i t y of shoreland f o r i n d u s t r i a l purposes. The o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t approach asks the q u e s t i o n , what i n f a c t i s given up by a l l o c a t i n g land to one use as opposed to another. Because shorelands were c o n s i d e r d to be v a l u a b l e by the Regional Plan, t h i s suggests t h a t many f i r m s a t t a c h a r e n t a l value to shorelands i n excess of the r e n t a l value they a t t a c h to upland s i t e s with s i m i l a r foundation and s e r v i c i n g a t t r i b u t e s . Because of the concern f o r p o s s i b l e s c a r c i t y of shorelands, i t i s important to understand the f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e the r e n t a l v a l u e s f i r m s a t t a c h to shorelands. A review of i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l e d t h a t waterway access may be important to some types of f i r m s , but t h a t f a c t o r s of p r o x i m i t y , p a r c e l s i z e , and f o u n d a t i o n s may be more important elements i n the r e n t a l value of s h o r e l a n d s . A s i z a b l e body c f 153 l i t e r a t u r e a l s o suggested t h a t f i r m s are i n d i f f e r e n t among a v a r i e t y of l o c a t i o n s . Of three p o s s i b l e methods of a s s e s s i n g the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of not developing shorelands, L i n d ' s approach to measuring the r e n t a l value d i f f e r e n c e between shoreland and upland s i t e s was most a p p e a l i n g . I t i n v o l v e s the f o r c a s t i n g o f land uses, and a comparison of c o s t s and savings of s e v e r a l f a c t o r s which a f f e c t p r o d u c t i v e a c t i v i t e s a t d i f f e r e n t l o c a t i o n s - such as fou n d a t i o n s , waterway access, p r o x i m i t y to urban cores and so on. However, t h i s approach was not u t i l i z e d becuase i t was designed f o r a s h o r t term e v a l u a t i o n of f i r m s which would move i n t o a w e l l d e f i n e d area as soon as a measure was taken, i n h i s example, to p r o t e c t a f l c o d p l a i n . In the F r a s e r shorelands the main concern i s with a much l e s s p r e d i c t a b l e demand f o r waterway access over a long p e r i o d of time, and over a wide area. T h e r e f o r e , i t was concluded t h a t the best course of a c t i o n which can be undertaken a t t h i s time i s a q u a l i t a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n of s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t . The approach which was used i s based on a review of the supply and demand f o r shoreland. F i r s t , the demand and supply of waterway access was c o n s i d e r e d . The main t h r u s t of t h i s a n a l y s i s was to determine the r e n t a l value d i f f e r e n c e between shoreland and upland s i t e s , and the a r e a l and temporal l i m i t s of the s h o r e l i n e . Second, the impact of a r e d u c t i o n i n the r e g i o n ' s supply of land designated i n d u s t r i a l was considered i n the context of when c u r r e n t l y vacant land would be i n demand. And t h i r d , the c o s t s of a l t e r n a t i v e l o g sto r a g e arrangements 154 were e v a l u a t e d . D. THE SOCIAL OPPORTUNITY COST OF PRESERVING RECREATION SITES (1) Rental Value of Waterway Access In the review of i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n l i t e r a t u r e i t was observed t h a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s are p l a y i n g a d e c l i n i n g r o l e i n the s i t i n g of new p l a n t s . Changing a t t i t u d e s demanding speed and f l e x i b i l i t y , and u l t r a - e f f i c i e n t port f a c i l i t i e s are becoming more important than d i r e c t waterway s h i p p i n g by i n d i v i d u a l p l a n t s . An examination of r e l a t e d l o c a t i o n f a c t o r s found t h a t f i r m s may a t t a c h an important r e n t a l value to shorelands f o r such non-waterway o r i e n t e d reasons as l a r g e l o t s , good f o u n d a t i o n s , and p r o x i m i t y to urban c o r e s . Another body of l i t e r a t u r e was c o n s u l t e d which s t r o n g l y i n d i c a t e d t h a t f i r m s a t t a c h very l i t t l e r e n t a l value to p a r t i c u l a r l o c a t i o n s r e g a r d l e s s of s i t e a t t r i b u t e s . In the examination of f i v e i n d i c a t o r s of demand of waterway access , the above o b s e r v a t i o n s appeared to be a c c u r a t e . I t was found that i n d u s t r i a l occupation of shorelands was not g r e a t . A s i z e a b l e number of a c t i v i t i e s make nc use of the waterway f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n although they occupy a shoreland s i t e . The North Arm was favoured, e s p e c i a l l y among ncn-waterway users, s u g g e s t i n g t h a t other l o c a t i o n f a c t o r s may be important, and t h a t deep d r a f t port o r i e n t e d i n d u s t r i a l use was r e l a t i v e l y minor compared to shallow d r a f t . 155 The F r a s e r shorelands have not been a major a t t r a c t i v e f o r c e on new f i r m s l o c a t i n g i n the G.V.B.D. Host of the f i r m s which d i d l o c a t e on the F r a s e r sere a t t r a c t e d to shallow d r a f t areas and the wood i n d u s t r i e s and n o n - m e t a l l i c mineral were most important. The Horth Arm was the favoured l o c a t i o n but a l a r g e number of new p l a n t s d i d not use the waterway. The survey of i n d u s t r i a l r e a l t o r s found that shoreland s i t e s were not e s s e n t i a l to most types of i n d u s t r y , and s u r p r i s i n g l y , they were not even p r e f e r r e d by many which have been observed to l o c a t e on shoreland. I t was a l s o ncted that l o c a t i o n d e c i s i o n s were g e n e r a l l y made a f t e r very l i t t l e d e l i b e r a t i o n and s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by p e r s o n a l preference. Two important waterway access using i n d u s t r i e s were considered s p e c i f i c a l l y , p o r t i n d u s t r y and wood products. I t was found t h a t because of c o n t a i n e r i z a t i o n and r e l a t i v e l y low g e n e r a l cargo volumes, port i n d u s t r y would l i k e l y net e x e r t a great d e a l of pressure on the a v a i l a b l e supply of s h o r e l i n e . The growing bulk p o r t demands f o r shoreland can not be accommodated because of d r a f t l i m i t a t i o n s . The l a r g e s t user of s h o r e l a n d i n the past has been the wood i n d u s t r y , but the f i x e d supply of a v a i l a b l e timber w i l l prevent the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of new m i l l s i n the r e g i o n . An examination of the market val u e s of shorelands r e v e a l e d that on the Main Arm they are among the lowest i n the r e g i o n . Higher values on the North Arm may be a r e s u l t cf urban pressures r a t h e r than the B i v e r i t s e l f . Thus shorelands i n g e n e r a l have not been i n great demand. 156 (2) ______ ___ Demand of Waterway access S t u d i e s by the L.H.R.P.B. (1961) and the G.V.R.D. (1971) s t r o n g l y i n d i c a t e d t h a t shorelands were i n sh o r t supply i n the r e g i o n . While the former was i n s t r u m e n t a l i n the fo r m u l a t i o n of the Regional Plan, i t s p r e d i c t i o n s of i n d u s t r i a l needs f o r l a n d were w e l l i n excess of those which were a c t u a l l y r e a l i z e d . In s p i t e of t h i s f i n d i n g which was recog n i z e d i n the G.V.R.D. study, the same study went cn to p r e d i c t heavy i n d u s t r i a l shoreland needs based on p r o j e c t i o n s of employment and r e l a t e d f a c t o r s . However, these p r e d i c i t o n s based on past t r e n d s , ana assuming a constant s u b d i v i s i o n p l a n , have dubious v a l i d i t y . a d i f f e r e n t approach to i n v e n t o r y and p r o j e c t i o n was used i n t h i s t h e s i s . I t was found t h a t F r a s e r shorelands c o u l d accommodate a doubling of a l l e x i s t i n g study area shoreland occupation ( i n c l u d i n g non-waterway users) on vacant lands designated i n d u s t r i a l with good foundations, but not i n c l u d i n g the s i t e s i d e n t i f i e d f o r r e c r e a t i o n . S i m i a r i l y i f the poor foundation lands were i n c l u d e d , the F r a s e r could accommodate almost a t r i p l i n g of e x i s t i n g use. Furthermore, e x t r a p o l a t i o n of the c u r r e n t r a t e of shoreland occupation i n d i c a t e d the F r a s e r c o u l d accommodate growth of a l l c u r r e n t types of i n d u s t r y found on the shoreland f c r a t l e a s t 50 years, i n both shallow and deep p o r t areas. I f the shorelands were r e s t r i c t e d to waterway using a c t i v i t i e s i n a l l a r e a s , and i f deep water using a c t i v i t i e s were the c n l y uses permitted i n deep water areas, the c a p a c i t y of the shorelands i s adequate f o r 157 at l e a s t 80 years. (3) Supply and Demand f o r I n d u s t r i a l land i n the G.V.R.D. To put the F r a s e r shoreland designated i n d u s t r i a l i n a r e g i o n a l c o n t e x t , the p r e s e r v a t i o n of r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s along the Lower F r a s e r would i n v o l v e a very small acreage of land designated i n d u s t r i a l . Becent s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e the r e g i o n i s w e l l s u p p l i e d with i n d u s t r i a l l a n d to the next c e n t u r y . Eecause F r a s e r shorelands are g e n e r a l l y i n n o n - c e n t r a l areas they are l e s s a t t r a c t i v e to i n d u s t r y than l o c a t i o n s c l o s e r to downtown. Although they are valued by some f o r t h e i r l a r g e p a r c e l s of l a n d , the dimensions of many of these c o u l d be reduced to accommodate both i n d u s t r y and r e c r e a t i o n . (4) The Opportunity Cost of F r e e i n g B e c r e a t i o n S i t e s of Log Storaae Three main a l t e r n a t i v e s were considered f o r a l l e v i a t i n g the c o n f l i c t a t r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . C o n s i d e r a t i o n of p o s s i b l e r e l o c a t i o n of booms f u r t h e r upstream found that a d d i t i o n a l annual c o s t s approaching one-half m i l l i o n d o l l a r s might be i n c u r r e d . A system of seasonal l e a s e s c o u l d be imposed at r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s without reducing the t o t a l downstream storage c a p a c i t y needed at a given time. Because the t o t a l number of l o g s s t o r e d i n the summer months i s lower than i n winter, they c o u l d be s t o r e d only i n areas of l i t t l e r e c r e a t i o n p o t e n t i a l during the summer. I f f i r m s were to switch t c l e s s space consuming bundle boom storage, the r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s c c u l d be f r e e d because f a r l e s s area would be r e g u i r e d f o r s t o r a g e . 158 while f u l l s c a l e c o n v e r s i o n to t h i s type of booming i s u n l i k e l y i n the immediate f u t u r e , p a r t i a l c o n v e r s i o n c o u l d be for c e d cn the i n d u s t r y simply by not renewing water l o t l e a s e s at r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . Because the b e n e f i t s of bundle booms, p a r t i c u l a r i l y i n reduced l o g l o s s , would exceed the c o s t s , such a c o n v e r s i o n would not e n t a i l a net o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t . E . CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS I t can be concluded, based on the i n v e n t o r y of p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s , t h a t the E r a s e r o f f e r s s e v e r a l very good o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r the development of r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s . The main asset of the B i v e r i s i t s wide i n t e r t i d a l f o r e s h o r e s which can be used by bar fishermen, p i c n i c k e r s and beachcombers i f upland access and f a c i l i t i e s are provided. I f these s i t e s were t o be preserved, the r e s u l t s of t h i s i n v e s t i g a t i o n have provided c l e a r evidence that the s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of doing so i s very near zero, at l e a s t i n the near f u t u r e . F i r s t , an examination of e x i s t i n g use, recent t r e n d s , f i r m p r e f e r e n c e s and market values demonstrates t h a t most f i r m s do not a t t a c h a g r e a t e r value t o shoreland than to s i m i l a r upland s i t e s . Second, an a n a l y s i s of the supply and p r o j e c t e d needs f o r sho r e l a n d i n d i c a t e s t h at the o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t of using f o r r e c r e a t i o n these lands which are net c u r r e n t l y employed i s zero i n the s h o r t run. T h i r d , a review of the r e g i o n ' s supply of i n d u s t r i a l land found t h a t the r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s occupied an i n s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of those lands which 159 m i g h t b e n e e d e d i n t h e f u t u r e . F o u r t h , a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f l o g s t o r a g e a l t e r n a t i v e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t a t l e a s t t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s c o u l d b e u s e d t o f r e e r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s w i t h o u t i n c u r r i n g a n y s o c i a l o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s . w h i l e t h e s e c o n c l u s i o n s h a v e b e e n s t r o n g l y s u p p o r t e d b y e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e , i t h a s b e e n e m p h a s i z e d t h a t t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n a l o n e i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t f o r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . H o w e v e r , b e c a u s e t h e s h o r t - r u n o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t i s z e r o , d e c i s i o n m a k e r s h a v e t i m e t o a c g u i r e a n d d e v e l o p c e r t a i n s i t e s f o r r e c r e a t i o n o n a n e x p e r i m e n t a l b a s i s . T h i s w o u l d p r o d u c e a c l e a r e r p i c t u r e o f t h e a c t u a l d e m a n d f o r F r a s e r s i t e s b y r e c r e a t i o n i s t s , a n d e n a b l e a m o r e r e l i a b l e e s t i m a t e o f t h e v a l u e o f t h i s d e m a n d t c b e m a d e s h o u l d i t b e c o m e n e c e s s a r y t o m a k e a b e n e f i t - c o s t e v a l u a t i o n w i t h i n d u s t r i a l d e m a n d s a s l a n d b e c o m e s s c a r c e r i n t h e f u t u r e . S u c h e s t i m a t e s w o u l d a l s o b e n e c e s s a r y t o e n s u r e t h a t f u n d s u s e d t o a c q u i r e F r a s e r s h o r e l a n d s w e r e b e i n g s p e n t t c m a x i m i z e t h e r e t u r n s o n p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t i n r e c r e a t i o n . B e c a u s e t h e e x p e n d i t u r e o f f u n d s t o a c q u i r e l a n d e n t a i l s a n o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t , i n t h a t a n a l t e r n a t i v e p u r c h a s e m u s t b e f o r e g o n e , s o m e i d e a o f t h e r e l a t i v e v a l u e o f t h e F r a s e r c o m p a r e d t o o t h e r p o t e n t i a l r e c r e a t i o n a r e a s w o u l d s t i l l b e n e e d e d f o r e f f i c i e n t d e c i s i o n m a k i n g . 1 6 0 A d a m s , N e a l e . 1 9 7 3 . " C a n B e A c h i e v e Z e r o P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h " . V a n c o u v e r S u n . A u g u s t 1 6 , p 6 . A l o n s o , W i l l i a m . 1 9 6 4 . L o c a t i o n a n d L a n d U s e . H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e . A p e d a i l e , B . D . 1 9 7 2 . " C a n a d i a n E x p o r t e r B o x e s N e w s p r i n t a n d P a p e r B o l l s " . U n r e f e r e n c e d x e r o x c o p y . A r v a n i t i d i s , N . V . , e t . a l . 1 9 7 2 . A C o m p u t e r S i m u l a t i o n M o d e l f o r F l o o d P l a i n C e v e l g p m e n t - - P a r t \i L a n d U s e P l a n n i n g a n d B e n e f i t E v a l u a t i o n . I N T A S A C o n s u l t a n t s , U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e , W a s h i n g t o n . A l o n s o , W. 1 9 6 7 . " A B e f o r m u l a t i o n o f C l a s s i c a l L o c a t i o n T h e o r y a n d i t s R e l a t i o n t o R e n t T h e o r y " . P a p e r s _ _ R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n . V o l u m e 2 2 , p p 1 4 9 - 1 5 3 . A y r e s , R . a n d K n e e s e , A . 1 9 6 9 . " P r o d u c t i o n , C o n s u m p t i o n a n d E x t e r n a l i t i e s " . A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c R e v i e w . V o l u m e 5 9 , p p 2 8 2 - 2 9 7 . B a t o r , F . M . 1 9 6 0 . T h e Q u e s t i o n o f G o v e r n m e n t S p e n d i n g . C o l l i e r B o o k s , N e w Y o r k . B a r l o o n , M . 1 9 6 5 . " T h e I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h e C h a n g i n g S t r u c t u r e o f A m e r i c a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d C h a n g e s i n I n d u s t r i a l L o c a t i o n " . L a n d E c o n o m i c s . V o l u m e 4 1 , p p 1 6 9 - 1 7 9 . B e a u l i e u , A . G a n d M a x w e l l , J . 1 9 7 2 . " N o t e s o n L a n d U s e a n d L a n d P l a n n i n g " . C o a s t a l Z o n e _ V o l u m e _ 1 A S e l e c t e d iS£jS3JE2UM P a p e r s . E d i t e d b y E n v i r o n m e n t C a n a d a , O t t a w a . B e l k n a p , R . a n d F u r t a d o , J . 1 9 6 5 . T h r e e a p p r o a c h e s t o M ^ i r o n m e n t a l R e s o u r c e A n a l y s i s . L a n d s c a p e A r c h i t e c t u e R e s e a r c h O f f i c e , G r a d u a t e S c h c c l c f D e s i g n , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , D e p a r t m e n t o f I n d u s t r i a l D e v e l o p m e n t , T r a d e a n d C o m m e r c e . 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 7 2 . I n d u s t r i a l E x p a n s i o n i n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . 1 9 7 1 . M u H i S i E S l V i c t o r i a . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , D e p a r t m e n t o f I n d u s t r i a l D e v e l o p m e n t , T r a d e a n d C o m m e r c e . 1 9 7 2 . T h e S a w m i l l I n d u s t r y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . 1 6 1 B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a F o r e s t S e r v i c e . 1 9 7 0 , 1 9 7 1 , 1 9 7 2 . M o n t h l y s t a t i s t i c s o f l o g s s t o r e d i n t h e M a i n A r m ; s u p p l i e d b y B . F a i r b a i r n . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a H y d r o a n d P o w e r A u t h o r i t y . 1 9 6 3 . P o t e n t i a l D e e p S e a I n d u s t r i a l S i t e s i n S o u t h w e s t e r n B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . I n d u s t r i a l D e v e l o p m e n t D e p a r t m e n t . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , P a r k s B r a n c h . 1 9 7 2 . L o w e r M a i n l a n d P a r k _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . § _ S t u d y . V i c t o r i a . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a R e s e a r c h C o u n c i l . 1 9 7 0 . B e n e f i t - C o s t S t u d y o f a n E n l a r g e d N o r t h A r m C h a n n e l . V a n c o u v e r . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a R e s e a r c h C o u n c i l . 1 9 6 7 . V a n c o u v e r H a r b o u r ^ T r a f f i c T r e n d s a n d F a c i l t y A n a l y s i s . A s t u d y p r e p a r e d f o r t h e N a t i o n a l H a r b o u r s B o a r d . B r o w n , R . 1 9 7 1 . T h e N a t u r a l O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n R e s o u r c e s o f M u s k o k a j ^ A n A p p r o a c h t o t h e I n v e n t o r y a n d f y a l u a t i c n o f O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n R e s o u r c e s . MA t h e s i s . U n i v e r s i t y o f W a t e r l o o . C a l i f o r n i a , D e p a r t m e n t o f N a v i g a t i o n a n d O c e a n D e v e l o p m e n t . 1 9 7 1 . A p p r o a c h e s T o w a r d a L a n d U s e A l l o c a t i o n S y s t e m f o r C a l i f o r n i a ' s C o a s t a l Z o n e . G r u e n a n d G r u e n a n d A s s o c i a t e s , L o s A n g e l e s . C a n a d a , D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s . 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 7 2 . N e w M a n u f a c t u r i n g E s t a b l i s h m e n t s i n C a n a d a . P u b l i s h e d a n n u a l l y b y I n f o r m a t i o n C a n a d a , O t t a w a . C a n a d a , D o m i n i o n B u r e a u o f S t a t i s t i c s . 1 9 7 0 . S t a n d a r d I n d u s r i a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n M a n u a l . I n f o r m a t i o n C a n a d a , O t t a w a . C a n a d a , D e p t . o f R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c E x p a n s i o n . 1 9 6 9 . T h e C a n a d a L a n d " L a n d C a p a b i l i t y C l a s s i f i c a t i o n f o r O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n " , R e p o r t n c . 6 . C h a p i n , F . 1 9 6 5 . U r b a n L a n d U s e P l a n n i n g . U n i v e r s i t y c f I l l i n o i s P r e s s , U r b a n a T ~ ~" C h i n i t z , B . 1 9 6 4 . " C i t y a n a S u b u r b " . C i t y , a n a S u b e r b : . T h e E c o n o m i c s o f M e t r o p o l i t a n G r o w t h . E d i t e d b y B . C h i n i t z . P r e n t i c e - H a l l , E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s . C h r i s t i a n , C . 1 9 5 7 . " T h e C o n c e p t o f L a n d U n i t s a n d L a n d S y s t e m s " . P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e N i n t h P a c i f i c S c i e n c e C o n g r e s s . V o l u m e 2 0 , p p 7 4 - 8 ? . ~ ~ C l a w s o n , H . a n d K n e t s c h , J . 1 9 6 6 . E c o n o m i c s o f O u t d o o r R g £ £ g a t i g n . R e s o u r c e s f o r t h e F u t u r e , J o h n s H o p k i n s P r e s s , B a l t i m o r e . 1 6 2 C o n k l i n , H . 1 9 6 0 . " P r i n c i p l e s o f L a n d C l a s s i f i c a t i o n " . P a p e r s o f t h e L a n d E c o n o m i c s I n s t i t u t e , M o d e r n L a n d P o l i c y . I r b a n a : U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s P r e s s , p p 3 3 7 - 3 4 3 . D r a e s e k e , G . L . 1 9 7 2 . " S h o r e l i n e M a n a g e m e n t — a n I n d u s t r y P e r s p e c t i v e " . A p a p e r p r e s e n t e d t o t h e W e s t w a t e r F o r u m , O c t o b e r 2 0 t h . E m p l o y e r ' s C o u n c i l o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . 1 9 6 9 . L i m i t a t i o n s a n d A t t r a c t i o n s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a f o r I n d u s t r y . V a n c o u v e r . F a i r b a i r n , B . 1 9 7 4 . S a w l o g P o l l u t i o n i n t h e L o w e r F r a s e r R i v e r MA t h e s i s . S c h o o l o f C o m m u n i t y a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U . B . C , , V a n c o u e r . F a r i n a , 3. 1 9 6 1 . " T h e S o c i a l a n d C u l t u r a l A s p e c t s o f R e c r e a t i o n " . R e s o u r c e s f o r T o m o r r o w . C o n f e r e n c e B a c k g r o u n d P a p e r s , V o l u m e 2 , O t t a w a . F o r w a r d , C . 1 9 6 8 . W a t e r f r o n t L a n d U s e j . n M e t r o p o l i t a n V a n c o u v e r , B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . G e o g r a p h i c a l P a p e r N u m b e r 4 1 , D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y M i n e s a n d R e s o u r c e s , O t t a w a . F r a n k e l , E . 1 9 6 8 . " C o n t a i n e r i z e d S h i p p i n g a n d I n t e g r a t e d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n " . P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e I E E E . V o l u m e 5 6 , p p 7 1 2 - 7 2 2 . F . R . H . C . , F r a s e r R i v e r H a r b o u r C o m m i s s s i o n . 1 9 7 1 . M a p s e r i e s 5 0 0 f e e t e q u a l s o n e i n c h , 1 0 0 0 f e e t g u a l s o n e i n c h , 3 0 0 f e e t e g u a l s o n e i n c h . F r i e d m a n , J . 1 9 6 4 . R e g i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t i n p o s t I n d u s t r i a l S o c i e t y - S o m e P o l i c y C o n s i d e r a t i o n s . M I T P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e . F r i e d r i c h , C . 1 9 6 5 . A l f r e d W e b e r _ : T h e o r y o f t h e L o c a t i o n o f I n d u s t r i e s . U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o P r e s s , T o r o n t o . G o l d b e r g , H . 1 9 6 9 . I n t r a m e t r o p o l i t a n i n d u s t r i a l L o c a t i o n . C e n t e r f o r R e a l E s t a t e a n d U r b a n E c o n o m i c s , B e r k e l y . G o l d i e , C . C . 1 9 6 7 . P o l l u t i o n i n t h e F r a s e r R i v e r . D e p a r t m e n t o f L a n d s , F o r e s t s a n d W a t e r R e s o u r c e s , V i c t o r i a . G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e a l E s t a t e B o a r d . 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 3 . R e a l E s t a t e T r e n d s . P u b l i s h e d a n n u a l l y . V a n c o u v e r . G . V . R . D . , G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t . 1 9 7 1 . S p a c e f o r I n d u s t r y . V a n c o u v e r . 1 6 3 G . V . R . D . , G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t . 1 9 7 3 . " R e p o r t o f t h e R e c r e a t i o n P o l i c y C o m m i t t e e t o t h e P l a n n i n g C o m m i t t e e o f t h e G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t " . C o m p l e t e d f o r t h e L i v a b l e R e g i o n P r o g r a m , V a n c o u v e r . G . V . R . D . , G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t . 1 9 7 3 . " P o p u l a t i o n F o r e c a s t " . P a m p h l e t , V a n c o u v e r . G r a y , J . 1 9 6 9 . T h e C h a r a c t e r a n d P e r v a s i v e n e s s o f T r a n s p o r t C o m p e t i t i o n i n t h e M o v e m e n t o f C o m m o d i t i e s F r o m G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r _ r i £ i n s t o B r i t i s h _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ D e s t i n a t i o n s . 8 f t t h e s i s , O . E . C . H a i g , R . H . 1 9 2 6 . " T o w a r d a n U n d e r s t a n d i n g o f M e t r c p l i s " . Q u a r t e r l y _ o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s . V o l u m e 4 0 , p p 4 2 1 -4 2 3 . H a l l a d a y , D . f i . a n d H a r r i s , R . D . 1 9 7 2 . A C o m m i t m e n t t o t h e F u t u r e ^ A P r o p o s a l f o r t h e P r o t e c t i o n a n d M a n a g e m e n t o f t h e F r a s e r W e t l a n d s . D e p a r t m e n t o f R e c r e a t i o n a n d C o n s e r v a t i o n , V i c t o r i a . H a r d w i c k , W . G . 1 9 6 1 . " C h a n g i n g L o g g i n g a n d S a w m i l l i n g S i t e s i n C o a s t a l B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a " . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ i n C a n a d i a n l i e o a r a p h y . E d i t e d b y R o b e r t M . I r v i n g ( 1 9 6 8 ) , H o l t , R i n e h a r t , a n d W i n s t o n , T o r o n t o , p p 3 3 3 - 3 4 0 . H a v e m a n , R . H . a n d K r u t i l l a , J . V . 1 9 6 8 . _ n e _ _ _ _ _ _ e _ t x I d l e C a p a c i t y , a n d t h e E v a l u a t i o n o f P u b l i c E x p e n d i t u r e s . R e s o u r c e s f o r t h e F u t u r e , B a l t i m o r e . H i l l s , G . 1 9 6 1 . T h e E c o l o g i c a l B a s i s f o r L a n d U s e P l a n n i n g . R e s e a r c h R e p o r t N o . " 4 6 , O n t a r i o D e p a r t m e n t o f L a n d s a n d F o r e s t s , T o r o n t o . H o d g e , G . 1 9 7 0 . " P a t t e r n s a n d P a r a m e t e r s o f I n d u s t r i a l L o c a t i o n i n t h e T o r o n t o U r b a n F i e l d " . R e s e a r c h P a p e r N u m b e r 2 8 , U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o . H o o v e r , E . 1 9 4 8 . T h e L o c a t i o n o f E c o n o m i c A c t i v i t y . M c G r a w -H i l l , N e w Y o r k . " H u n k e r , H . 1 9 5 8 . I n d u s t r i a l E v o l u t i o n o f C _ l _ _ b _ _ _ O h i o . B u r e a u o f B u s i n e s s R e s e a r c h , M o n o g r a p h N u m b e r 9 3 , T h e O h i o S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y . H u t c h i s o n , B r u c e . 1 9 5 0 . R i v e r s o f A m e r i c a : T h e F r a s e r . C l a r k , I r w i n . T o r o n t o . J a m e s , L . D . 1 9 6 5 . " N o n s t r u c t u r a l M e a s u r e s f o r F l o o d C o n t r c l " . W a t e r R e s o u r c e s R e s e a r c h . V o l u m e 1 , p p 9 - 2 4 . K a r a s k a , G . 1 9 6 9 . L o c a t i o n a l A n a l y s i s f o r M a n u f a c t u r i n g . M I T P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e . 1 6 4 K e r r , D . P . a n d F i e l d , N . C . 1 9 6 8 . G e o g r a p h i c a l A s p e c t s o f l i l j j j s t r i a l G r o w t h i n t h e H e t r o p o l i t a n T o r o n t o R e g i o n . D e p a r t m e n t o f T r e a s u r y a n d E c o n o m i c s , T o r o n t o . K n e t s c h , J . a n d D a v i s , R . 1 9 6 6 . " C o m p a r i s o n o f M e t h o d s f o r R e c r e a t i o n E v a l u a t i o n " . E c o n o m i c s o f t h e E n v i r o n m e n t . E d i t e d b y D o r f m a n a n d D o r f m a n , N e w Y o r k , 1 9 7 2 , p p 3 8 4 -4 0 2 . K o o p m a n s , T . C . a n d B e c k m a n n , M . 1 9 5 7 . " A s s i g n m e n t P r o b l e m s a n d t h e L o c a t i o n o f E c o n o m i c A c t i v i t i e s " . E c p n o m e t r i c a . V o l u m e 2 5 , p p 5 3 - 7 6 . L a F o r e s t , G . V . 1 9 6 9 . N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s a n d P u b l i c P r o p e r t y U n d e r t h e C a n a d i a n C o n s t i t u t i o n . U n i v e r s i t y c f T o r o n t o P r e s s . T o r o n t o . L e i r e n , H a l . 1 9 7 3 . " P u b l i c R i g h t t o F r a s e r w a t e r f r c n t R e c o g n i z e d " . V a n c o u v e r S u n . A p r i l 1 6 , p p 2 7 . L e v e s g u e , E . 1 9 7 4 . I m p a c t o f t h e K n i g h t S t r e e t B r i d g e c n t h e A l l o c a t i o n o f I n d u s t r i a l L a n d . M . A . T h e s i s , S c h o o l o f C o m m u n i t y a n d B e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U . B . C . , V a n c o u v e r . L e w i s , P . 1 9 6 4 . " Q u a l i t y C o r r i d o r s f o r W i s c o n s i n " . L a n d s c a p e A r c h i t e c t u r e Q u a r t e r l y . J a n u a r y , p p 1 0 0 - 1 0 7 . L i n d , R . C . 1 9 6 7 . " F l o o d C o n t r o l A l t e r n a t i v e s a n d t h e E c o n o m i c s o f F l o o d P r o t e c t i o n " . W a t e r R e s o u r c e s R e s e a r c h . V o l u m e 3 , p p 3 4 5 - 3 5 7 . L . M . B . P . B . , L o w e r M a i n l a n d B e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . 1 9 6 1 . D y n a m i c s o f I n d u s t r i a l L a n d S e t t l e m e n t . N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . L . M . B . P . B . , L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . 1 9 6 3 . C h a n c e a n d C h a l l e n g e . N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . L . M . R . P . B . , L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . 1 9 6 6 . A R e g i o n a l P a r k s P l a n f o r t h e L o w e r M a i n l a n d . N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . L . M . R . P . B . , L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . 1 9 6 6 . T h e L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n . N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . L . M . R . P . B . , l o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . 1 9 6 8 . O u r S o u t h w e s t e r n S h o r e s . N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . L u t t r e l l , W. 1 9 6 2 . F a c t o r y L o c a t i o n a n d I n d u s t r i a l M o v e m e n t . L o n d o n . M a c m i l l a n , T . 1 9 6 5 . " W h y M a n u f a c t u r e r s C h o o s e P l a n t L o c a t i o n s v s . D e t e r m i n a t s o f P l a n t L o c a t i o n s " . L a n d E c o n o m i c s . V o l u m e 4 1 , p p 2 3 9 - 2 4 6 . 1 6 5 M a c n a b , G . F . 1 9 6 5 . " A P r e l i m i n a r y R e c r e a t i o n S u r v e y o f t h e F r a s e r R i v e r " . B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a D e p a r t m e n t o f R e c r e a t i o n a n d C o n s e r v a t i o n , m i m e o . M i s h a n , E . 1 9 7 1 . " T h e P o s t w a r L i t e r a t u r e o n E x t e r n a l i t i e s : A n I n t e r p r e t a t i v e E s s a y " . J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c L i t e r a t u r e V o l u m e 9 , p p 1 - 2 8 . H o s e s , I . a n d W i l l i a m s o n , H . 1 9 6 7 . " T h e L o c a t i o n c f E c o n o m i c A c t i v i t y i n C i t i e s " . P a p e r s a n d P r o c e e d i n g s -A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c R e v i e w . V o l u m e 5 7 , p p 2 1 1 - 2 2 2 . M u e l l e r , E . e t . a l . 1 9 6 1 . l o c a t i o n D e c i s i o n s a n d I n d u s t r i a l -M o b i l i t y i n M i c h i g a n . U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n P r e s s , A n n A r b o r . "* ~ N . F . H . C . , N o r t h F r a s e r H a r b o u r C o m m i s s i o n . 1 9 6 7 . M a p s e r i e s 2 0 0 f e e t e g u a l s o n e i n c h . N i s h i o k a , H . a n d K r u m m e , G . 1 9 7 3 . " L o c a t i o n C o n d i t i o n s , F a c t o r s a n d D e c i s i o n s : A n E v a l u a t i o n o f S e l e c t e d L o c a t i o n S u r v e y s " . L a n d E c o n o m i c s . V o l u m e X L I X , p p 1 9 5 - 2 0 5 . 0 ' f l i o r d a n , T . 1 9 7 1 . P e r p e c t i y e s o n R e s o u r c e M a n a g e m e n t . P i o n L i m i t e d , L o n d o n . 0 , R . R . R . C . , O u t d o o r R e c r e a t i o n R e s o u r c e s R e v i e w C o m m i s s i o n . 1 9 6 2 . P r o s p e c t i v e D e m a n d f o r O u t d o o r B e c r e a t i o n . R e p o r t N o . 1 9 , W a s h i n g t o n . P e a r s e , P . H . 1 9 6 8 . " A N e w A p p r o a c h t o t h e E v a l u a t i o n o f N o n -P r i c e d R e c r e a t i o n a l R e s o u r c e s " . L a n d E c o n o m i c s . V o l u m e 6 4 , p p 8 7 - 9 9 . P e a r s o n , N o r m a n . 1 9 7 2 . T h e F r a s e r R i v e r H a r b o u r D e v e l o p m e n t S t u d y . F r a s e r l i v e r H a r b o u r C o m m i s s i o n , N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . P e a r s o n , N o r m a n . 1 9 7 3 . O p e r a t i o n O p e n S p a c e . A d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r p r e p a r e d f o r t h e G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t . P e i l u c k , R . 1 9 6 7 . T h e C l a s s i f i c a t i o n S y s t e m D e s i g n a t e d f o r t h e J 3 § £ : £ e a t i o n S e c t o r o f t h e C a n a d a L a n d I n v e n t o r y P r o j e c t MA t h e s i s , U n i v e r s i t y o f M a n i t o b a . P r e d , A . 1 9 6 4 . " I n t r a - H e t r o p o l i t a n L o c a t i o n o f A m e r i c a n M a n u f a c t u r i n g " . A n n a l s o f t h e A s s o c i a t i o n o f A m e r i c a n 2 ® 0 2 f S £ ^ ® £ s . V o l u m e 5 4 , p p 1 6 5 - 1 8 0 . P r o b s t , A . 1 9 6 7 . " C r i t e r i a f o r L o c a t i o n o f I n d u s t r i a l P l a n t s " . E c o n o m i s t C o m m i s s i o n f o r E u r o p e . U n i t e d N a t i o n s , N e w Y o r k . 1 6 6 R e e s , W. 1 9 7 2 . " I n t e r - I n s t i t u t i o n a l P o l i c y S i m u l a t o r " . W a t e r R e s o u r c e s S u b - G r o u p , I . I . P . S . , R e s o u r c e S c i e n c e C e n t e r , U B C . R o s s , I a n . 1 9 7 0 . " S o m e A s p e c t s o f M o d e r n P o r t D e v e l o p m e n t " . A p a p e r p r e s e n t e d t o t h e " S a i n t J o h n P o r t D a y " . R . S . B . C . R e v i s e d s t a t u t e s o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , R i c h m o n d , G . 1 9 7 3 . An A n a l y s i s o f M a n u f a c t u r i n g l o c a t i o n i n G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r . B A t h e s i s , S c h o o l o f C o m m u n i t y a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g , U B C . R i m e s , 1 . 1 9 7 1 . " B . C . L u m b e r S h i p m e n t s a r e C o n t a i n e r i z e d " . C a n a d i a n T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d D i s t r i b u t i o n M a n a g e m e n t . O c t o b e r T p p ~ 2 9 - 3 2 . R o b i n s o n , Jean. 1 9 6 5 . T h e E c o n o m i c s o f I m p e r f e c t C o m p e t i t i o n . M a c m i l l a n a n d C o m p a n y , L o n d o n . S m i t h , D . 1 9 6 6 . " T h e o r e t i c a l F r a m e w o r k f o r G e o g r a p h i c a l S t u d i e s o f I n d u s t r i a l L o c a t i o n " . E c o n o m i c G e o g r a p h y . V o l u m e 4 2 , p p 9 5 - 1 1 3 . S o l z m a n , D . 1 9 6 6 . W a t e r w a y I n d u s t r i a l S i t e s ^ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ C a s e _ _ _ _ _ • U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s , C h i c a g o . S . C . S t a t u t e s o f C a n a d a . S t e e d , G . 1 9 7 2 . " I n t r a m e t r o p l i t a n M a n u f a c t u r i n g : S p a t i a l F o r m a n d L o c a t i o n a l D y n a m i c s i n G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r " . U n p u b l i s h e d d r a f t . S t e i n i t z , C , e t . a l . 1 9 6 9 A C o m p a r a t i v e s t u d y o f R e s o u r c e _ _ _ _ _ _ ? _ _ M e t h o d s . G r a d u a t e S c h o o l o f D e s i g n , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y , C a m b r i d g e . S t e i n i t z , C , e t . a . 1 9 7 0 . " A G e n e r a l S y s t e m f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a l R e s o u r c e A n a l y s i s " . P u b l i c L a n d P o l i c y a n d t h e _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ • ! P a r t I I I E n v i r o n m e n t a l Q u a l i t y a n d t h e 5__I i_ _ _ _ _ _ • L a n d s c a p e s I n c . , M a d i s o n , W i s c o n s i n , N a t i o n a l T e c h n i c a l I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , U . S . D e p t . c f C o m m e r c e . S t e w a r t , G . 1 9 6 8 . L a n d E v a l u a t i o n . M a c m i l l a n o f A u s t r a l i a , M e l b o u r n e . S w a n - W o o s t e r E n g i n e e r i n g . 1 9 7 2 . A c o n f i d e n t i a l s t u d y o f t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f l o c a t i n g a n i n d u s t r i a l f i r m i n t h e s t u d y a r e a . T o w n r o e , P . 1 9 7 1 . I n d u s t r i a l L o c a t i o n D e c i s i o n s . U n i v e r s i t y o f B i r m i n g h a m , B i r m i n g h a m . 1 6 7 T u r n e r , R . 1 9 7 1 . " G e n e r a l T h e o r i e s o f P l a n t L o c a t i o n : A S u r v e y " . A m e r i c a n I n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t C o u n c i l J o u r n a l . V o l u m e 6 , p p 2 1 - 3 6 . T u r v e y , R . 1 9 5 7 . T h e E c o n o m i c s o f R e a l P r o p e r t y : A n A n a l y s i s o f P r o p e r t y V a l u e s a n d P a t t e r n s o f U s e . A l l e n a n d U n w i n , L o n d o n . U n i t e d S t a t e s , F o r e s t S e r v i c e . 1 9 5 9 . W o r k p l a n f o r t h e N a t i o n a l F o r e s t R e c r e a t i o n S u r v e y - A R e v i e w o f t h e O u t d o o r R e s o u r c e s o f t h e N a t i g a n l F o r e s t s . D i v i s i o n o f R e c r e a t i o n , F o r e s t S e r v i c e , D e p t . o f A g r i c u l t u r e , W a s h i n g t o n . V e r n o n , R . 1 9 6 0 . M e t r o p o l i s 1 9 8 5 . H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , C a m b r i d g e . W a t m o u g h , D o n . 1 9 7 2 . S h a d y I s l a n d ^ A N a t u r a l H i s t o r y . R i c h m o n d N a t u r e P a r k . W e r s t a , E . 1 9 7 3 . P r o p o s a l f o r B a r F i s h i n g W i t h i n t h e F r a s e r R i v e r D e l t a . L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l W i l d l i f e A s s o c i a t i o n . 1 6 8 P e r s o n s C o n s u l t e d M r . S t u a r t A d a m s ( P l a n n e r ) C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r M r . T o m B o y l e M a c a u l a y , N i c o l l s , M a i t l a n d a n d C o m p a n y M r . K e n C h e e s m a n B l o c k B r o t h e r s R e a l t y M r . D o u g C o p p G e n e r a l R e a l t y L i m i t e d M r . R i c k H a n k i n ( P l a n n e r ) G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t M r . S . B . H o b b s G e o f f H o b b s a n d A s s o c i a t e s M r . J i m H o l d o m F l a c k - H o l d o m I n v e s t m e n t s M r . H . K e e n l y s i d e P e n n y a n d K e e n l y s i d e A p p r a i s a l s L i m i t e d M r . C h a r l e s L o g a n M a c a u l a y , N i c o l l s , M a i t l a n d a n d C o m p a n y M r . T e d L y n e I n d u s t r i a l D e v e l o p m e n t D i v i s i o n , C a n a d i a n n a t i o n a l B a i l w a y s M r . K . J , M a c E w a n ( S e c r e t a r y ) N o r t h F r a s e r H a r b o u r C o m m i s s i o n M r . F . C . M a c K a y ( I n d u s t r i a l a n d T r a d e C o m m i s s i o n e r ) D e p a r t m e n t o f I n d u s t r i a l D e v e l o p m e n t , T r a d e a n d C o m m e r c e M r . S c o t t M c L a r e n ( S e c r e a t a r y ) F r a s e r R i v e r H a r b o u r C o m m i s s i o n M r . A l e x M c R o n e ( M a n a g e r , L o g A l l o c a t i o n ) H a c M i l l a n B l o e d e l L i m i t e d M r . H o w i e M a g e e ( I n d u s t r i a l D e v e l o p m e n t R e p r e s e n t a t i v e ) B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a H y d r o a n d P o w e r A u t h o r i t y M r . R o g e r M o n t g o m e r y w a l l a n d R e d e k o p L i m i t e d M r . T e d N e w m a n B l o c k B r o t h e r s B e a l t y M r . J . H . N o r t o n N o r t o n R e a l t y M r . M . F . P a i n t e r ( M a n a g e r , F o r e s t r y a n d L o g g i n g D i v i s i o n ) C o u n c i l o f F o r e s t I n d u s t r i e s c f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a flr. W i l l P a u l i c k B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a W i l d l i f e F e d e r a t i o n 1 6 9 A P P E N D I X I SfiiliSSs o f I n f o r m a t i o n f o r t h e I n v e n t o r y o f P o t e n t i a l R e c r e a t i o n S i t e s A d a m s , S t e w a r t . P l a n n e r , C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . B e a c h , D o r t h y . S a v e O u r S h o r e s C o m m i t t e e . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . C a n a d a L a n d I n v e n t o r y . 1 9 6 7 . P r e l i m i n a r y M a p s o f R e c r e a t i o n P o t e n t i a l . S h e e t s 9 2 G / 3 a n d 9 2 G / 2 . C h a s t e r , J . B . P l a n n e r , C i t y o f N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . H a l l a d a y , D . R . a n d H a r r i s , R . D . 1 9 7 2 . A C o m m i t m e n t t c t h e F u t u r e ^ A P r o p o s a l f o r t h e P r o t e c t i o n a n d M a n a g e m e n t o f t h e f r a s e r w e t l a n d s . D e p a r t m e n t o f R e c r e a t i o n a n d C o n s e r v a t i o n , V i c t o r i a . H a n k i n , R i c k . P l a n n e r , G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r R e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . K o w a l e n k o , S . 1 9 7 3 . " R e c r e a t i o n S t u d y o f t h e C o g u i t l a m - P c r t C o g u i t l a m D i s t r i c t " . D r a f t o f a r e p o r t c o m p l e t e d f o r a L o c a l I n i t i a t i v e s G r a n t . L e i r e n , H a l l . C o l u m n i s t , V a n c o u v e r S u n . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . L . M . R . P . B . , L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . 1 9 6 6 . A R e g i o n a l P a r k s P l a n f o r t h e L o w e r M a i n l a n d . N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . L . M . R . P . B . , L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g B o a r d . 1 9 6 8 . O u r S o u t h w e s t e r n S h o r e s . N e w W e s t m i n s t e r . M c L a r e n , S c o t t . S e c r e t a r y , F r a s e r R i v e r H a r b o u r C o m m i s s i o n . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . M a c N a b , G . F . 1 9 6 5 . " A P r e l i m i n a r y R e c r e a t i o n S u r v e y c f t h e F r a s e r R i v e r " . D e p a r t m e n t o f R e c r e a t i o n a n d C o n s e r v a t i o n . V i c t o r i a . P a u l i c k , W i l l . B . C . W i l d l i f e F e d e r a t i o n . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . P e a r s o n , N o r m a n . 1 9 7 3 . O p e r a t i o n O p e n S p a c e . A d i s c u s s i o n p a p e r p r e p a r e d f o r t h e G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r B e g i o n a l D i s t r i c t . S t r a i g h t , L e e . F i s h i n g G u i d e . M a p o f l o c a l f i s h i n g b a r s , V a n c o u v e r S u n P u b l i s h i n g . 170 T e i s s e n , E r i c . P l a n n e r , C i t y o f C o q u i t l a m . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . V a n c o u v e r , P l a n n i n g a n d C i v i c D e v e l o p m e n t D e p a r t m e n t . I n f o r m a t i o n s h e e t s o n p o s s i b l e w a t e r f r o n t p a r k s e a s t o f A n g u s D r i v e . V a n c o u v e r , P l a n n i n g a n d C i v i c D e v e l o p m e n t D e p a r t m e n t . 1 9 7 3 . I n f o r m a t i o n s h e e t s o n t h e a r e a a t t h e f o o t o f A n g u s D r i v e ; c o m p i l e d f o r p u r p o s e s o f p o s s i b l e r e c r e a t i o n d e v e l o p m e n t . W a t m o u g h , D . 1 9 7 2 . A n E c o l o g i c a l A p p r o a c h t o t j e D e y e ^ c c j e n t o f t h e R i c h m o n d F o r e s h o r e . R i c h m o n d N a t u r e P a r k , R i c h m o n d . w a t m o u g h , D . 1 9 7 2 . S h a d y I s l a n d : A N a t u r a l H i s t o r y . R i c h m o n d N a t u r e P a r k , R i c h m o n d . w a t m o u g h , D . 1 9 7 3 . A p r o p o s a l f o r R e c r e a t i o n i n M a c d o n a l d S l o u g h . D r a f t o f a r e p o r t c o m p l e t e d f o r a L o c a l I n i t i a t i v e s G r a n t . W a t m o u g h , D o n . A u t h o u r o f s e v e r a l r e c e n t r e c r e a t i o n s t u d i e s o n t h e l o w e r F r a s e r . P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w . W e r s t a , E . 1 9 7 3 . P r o p o s a l f o r B a r F i s h i n g W i t h i n t h e F r a s e r R i v e r D e l t a . L o w e r M a i n l a n d R e g i o n a l W i l d l i f e A s s o c i a t i o n . A P P E N D I X I I R e c r e a t i o n a l S i t e R e p o r t l o c a t i o n ( a ) s i t e n c . ( b ) m a p r e f . ( c ) n a m e o r d e s c r i p t i o n ( d ) s u r r o u n d i n g l a n d u s e S i t e D e s c r i p t i o n ( a ) t o p o g r a p h y ( b ) v e g e t a t i o n ( c ) s o i l ( d ) s e r v i c e s ( e ) w a t e r g u a l i t y ( f ) m a n - m a d e f e a t u r e s ( g ) p a r t i c u l a r f e a t u r e s ( h ) v i e w A c c e s s i b i l i t y ( a ) r o a d s ( b ) t r a i l s ( c ) p a r k i n g ( d ) p r o x i m i t y t o r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s R e c r e a t i o n D s e ( a ) p r e s e n t 1 7 2 ( b ) p o t e n t i a l 5 . C o n f l i c t s ( a ) a t p r e s e n t ( b ) p o t e n t i a l 6 . L a n d T e n u r e 7 . A d d i t i o n a l I n f o r m a t i o n 8. D a t a S o u r c e s 1 7 3 A P P E N D I X I I I I n d u s t r i a l R e a l t o r s Q u e s t i o n a i r e I N S T R U C T I O N S : 1 . I n t h e s p a c e s p r o v i d e d p l e a s e l i s t t h e t e n m o s t i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s w h i c h i n f l u e n c e a n i n d u s t r y ' s d e c i s i o n t o l o c a t e o n a s p e c i f i c s i t e . E e g i n w i t h t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t a n d e n d w i t h t h e l e a s t i m p o r t a n t . 2 . P l a c e a n " E ™ b e s i d e t h o s e f a c t o r s w h i c h y o u c o n s i d e r t c b e a b s o l u t e l y e s s e n t i a l . 3 . F e e l f r e e t o q u a l i f y y o u r a n s w e r s o n t h e b a c k o f t h i s s h e e t . F o o d a n d B e v e r a g e s 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 1 0 . C h e m i c a l a n d C h e m i c a l P r o d u c t s T7 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 1 0 . W o o d I n d u s t r i e s 17 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 1 0 . P e t r o l e u m a n d C o a l P r o d u c t s 1 . " 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 1 0 . P a p e r a n d A l l i e d I n d u s t r i e s 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 1 0 . N o n - m e t a l l i c M i n e r a l P r o d u c t s T . ~ 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 1 0 . Metal F a b r i c a t i n g I n d u s t r i e s Wholesale Trade and St o r a _ ^ — — — ^ 2. 2, 3. 3. 4. U. 5. 5. 6. 6 . 7. 7. 8 . 8 . 9 . 9 . 10. 10. 

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