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A marketing model of transportation demand at industrial sites Dawson, Ian N. 1973

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C.I A M A R K E T I N G MODEL OF T R A N S P O R T A T I O N AT  INDUSTRIAL  DEMAND  SITES  BY  IAN M.A.  A THESIS  N.  DAWSON  U N I V E R S I T Y OF G E O R G I A , 1 9 6 8  SUBMITTED  IN PARTIAL  OF THE R E Q U I R E M E N T S  FULFILLMENT  FOR THE D E G R E E OF  DOCTOR OF P H I L O S O P H Y  in  t h e Department o f Geography  We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s required standard:  as conforming  t ot h e  •/$MUNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October  1973  In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s  thesis  an advanced degree at  in p a r t i a l  f u l f i l m e n t o f the requirements f o r  the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia,  the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e I  f u r t h e r agree  for  that  r e f e r e n c e and study.  f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f  this  thesis  s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department o r  by h i s of  that permission  for  I agree  this  representatives. thesis  It  is understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n  f o r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l  written permission.  Department of  Geography  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Vancouver 8, Canada  Date  1 9 t h March  1974  Columbia  not be allowed without my  - i -  A M A R K E T I N G MODEL OF T R A N S P O R T A T I O N  DEMAND AT I N D U S T R I A L  SITES  BY  IAN  N. DAWSON  ABSTRACT This  study  volume o f t r u c k significance study  analyses  the factors  movement f r o m  o f these  of forty-three  factors  urban  which  influence the  manufacturing  i stested  sites.  b y means o f a  wood p r o d u c t s p l a n t s  The  case  i n Vancouver,  British  Columbia. Some o f t h e d a n g e r s passenger discussed,  travel "analysis  o f a p p l y i n g the assumptions t o urban  goods movement s t u d i e s a r e  w i t h emphasis on t h e problems  forecasting.  A review o f urban  o f urban  o f aggregation and  goods movement s t u d i e s  t o date  shows t h a t p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h d o e s n o t i n c o r p o r a t e e x p l a n a t i o n s of  t h e c a u s a l mechanism behind  variations  i n truck  demand, b u t r a t h e r  relies  as  t o e s t i m a t e t h e volume o f t r i p - m a k i n g .  employment s i z e A marketing  squares ables  multiple  model  fluence  behind  i s proposed.  regression  to thebasic  theory  on simple w i t h i n - s i t e  transport  I t takes  equations which  plant-size  model.  variables  t h e form  such  of least-  add marketing  vari-  The d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e  t h e m a r k e t i n g model d i s c u s s e s t h e expected i n -  o f the manufacturer's  physical  distribution  channel on  his  trip  which  generation rate.  are expected  t o be  customers  f o r the  transport  s u p p l y , and  tion  data  effects  their  own  function  o f one  significant  variables  a personal survey of month  channel  behaviour  i n the  of  size,  distribu-  The trip  i n taken  the p l a n t - s i z e  same s u r v e y  attraction  truck future  into  capacity  were  conditions  movements  over  manufacturers.  m o d e l was  the  r e v e a l e d when  market which  i s  retail-  account.  d a t a was  rates.  using  e x p l a n a t o r y power o f  p r o p o r t i o n of the manufacturer's  oriented  are tested  truck  f r o m wood p r o d u c t s  improvement i n the  m a r k e t i n g model o v e r  the  are the  the  product w i t h r e s p e c t to shipment  of marketing  g a t h e r e d by  a period  the  significant  of  channel. The  A  Characteristics  Size  found  used  of t h e i r  t o be  which  model. are..discussed,.co.o  to estimate  supply-market  significant.  may  retailers  limit  Lastly,  applications  1  and the of  - i i i  T A B L E OF  CHAPTER NUMBER I  -  CONTENTS  CHAPTER T I T L E a n d SUB-TITLES  PAGE  INTRODUCTION  1  Context and Purpose o f t h e Study O r g a n i z a t i o n and Major F i n d i n g s II  DEFICIENCIES PLANNING  I N URBAN  TRANSPORTATION 14  Transportation Planning Methodology Units of Analysis III  TRUCK T R I P G E N E R A T I O N - P R E V I O U S RESEARCH  TOWARDS A M A R K E T I N G MODEL OF TRUCK GENERATION  27 34 TRIP  The Demand f o r T r u c k T r a n s p o r t The S u p p l y o f T r u c k T r a n s p o r t I n d u s t r i a l L o c a t i o n and T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Demand I n d u s t r i a l S t r u c t u r e and P h y s i c a l Distribution P h y s i c a l D i s t r i b u t i o n and T r i p Generation V  THE S U R V E Y METHOD, P I L O T S U R V E Y R E S U L T S AND DATA O R G A N I Z A T I O N The S u r v e y P r o c e d u r e Results o f t h e P i l o t Survey Shipment C l a s s i f i c a t i o n and Organization  VI  A T E S T OF THE I N D U S T R I A L MODEL  14 24  27  Conceptual Models and Proposed Research Strategies Empirical Studies IV  1 9  50 53 61 69 79 95 105 106 111 116  PLANT-SIZE  The P l a n t - S i z e M o d e l : A Test Using the Vancouver Survey Data T r i p G e n e r a t i o n Rates and Market Distance Employment-Local Shipment C o r r e l a t i o n : A Comparison w i t h Aggregate Data  121 122 128 142  - i v -  CHAPTER NUMBER  VII  CHAPTER T I T L E a n d SUB-TITLES  PAGE  A T E S T OF THE M A R K E T I N G MODEL  148  D i s t r i b u t i o n Channel - T r i p Generation Relationships: Regression Analysis D i s t r i b u t i o n Channel - T r i p Generation Relationships: Sawmills Shipment S i z e and Truck C a p a c i t y : Sawmill Shipments D i s t r i b u t i o n Channel - T r i p Generation Relationships: Other Manufacturing Sites T r i p G e n e r a t i o n a n d The E f f e c t s o f Marketing Variables: Conclusions f r o m t h e Wood P r o d u c t s I n d u s t r y Analysis VIII  R E T A I L T R I P ATTRACTION RATES  F O R E C A S T I N G THE VOLUME AND S P A T I A L DENCE OF URBAN TRUCK MOVEMENTS  164  17 2  183  191 200 2 04 206  INCI-  F u t u r e C o n d i t i o n s w h i c h do n o t l i m i t a p p l i sal t i e n s . f t o f t ; t h e ;.,-Mode 1 F u t u r e C o n d i t i o n s w h i c h may l i m i t a p p M c a l t i o n .".of. . t h e ' . M a r k e t i n g e M o d e l X  157  188  The C o l l e c t i o n a n d C a l c u l a t i o n o f R e t a i l T r i p A t t r a c t i o n Model Data Manufacturing-Retail Linkages G r e a t e r T h a n One T r i p P e r Week R e t a i l T r i p A t t r a c t i o n Rates S i t e Ownership D i s t i n c t i o n s IX  151  213 215 230  CONCLUSIONS  241  BIBLIOGRAPHY  246  APPENDIX:  Standard I n d u s t r i a l Classification  25'4  -  v  -  L I S T OF TABLE NUMBER •  1  TABLE •  Factors Used to Estimate in Selected Cities  2  Highway  3  Vancouver Survey: Trip Data  4  Share of  Correlation Local  PAGE  Truck  Trip  Attractions 18  Intercity  Commodity T r a f f i c  Employment, P r o d u c t i o n ,  54 55  Truck 117  Coefficients:  Production,  Shipments,  Shipments, Employment  5  Rank o f  6  Percentage of Total Type. P e r c e n t a g e of. L o c a l  7  TABLES  Correlation  14 3  Coefficients: Local  Trips  Sawmills  to Each  145  Customer 149  Quantity  to  Each  Customer  Type  150  8  Correlation  9  Manufacturing-Retail Trip  Per  Matrix:  Week:  Revised Model Variables Linkages  Regression  10  A l l Retail:  Correlation  11  A l l Retail:  Partial  12  S i t e Ownership:  G r e a t e r Than Equations  Matrix  Correlation  Variable  Means  152 One 20 2 205  Matrix  207 209  - v i -  L I S T OF  FIGURES  FIGURE NUMBER  'FIGURE '•.  1  P a t t e r n s o f F r e i g h t Movement  2  Conceptual and  F o r e c a s t i n g U r b a n Goods Movement  Hypothetical Distribution  4  I m p a c t on T r u c k  Trip  33  System  Generation  62 Rates  M a r k e t D e n s i t i e s and T r a n s p o r t  of  Differ-  Supply  5  Distribution  6  Calculation  7  Simplified  8  Principle  9  Wood P r o c e s s i n g P l a n t s i n G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r ,  64  Channels  90  o f Economic Order Q u a n t i t y Distribution  Channels:  93  Industrial  Goods  o f Minimum T r a n s a c t i o n s  (map)..  19 70 10 9  T o t a l Truck  Trips/Total  11  Residuals  12  Total Trips/Total  from  97 10 3  '  10  i_  30  Framework f o r A n a l y z i n g , M o d e l l i n g ,  3  ent  PAGE  Employees:  Regression  A l l Plants  ( F i g u r e 10)  Employees  123 124  f o r Sawmills  126  3  13 14  R e s i d u a l s f r o m R e g r e s s i o n ( F i g u r e 12) Frequency o f T r i p Generation Rates: Export, Distance, and r  Local.  12 7 Long 130  15  Local Trips/Non-Basic  16  Residuals  17  P l a n t S i z e v . s . Range o f S a l e s  141  18  Residuals  154  19  R e s i d u a l s from Regression: Sawmills ( w i t h o u t two l a r g e s t t r i p g e n e r a t o r s ) Product Linkages: Sawmill A c t i v i t y System  20  from  from  Employment  Regression  Regression:  ( F i g u r e 15)  Sawmills  1136 137  156 15 8  - v i i -  FIGURE NUMBER  FIGURE • by Size o f Shipments:  PAGE Sawmills  168  21  Number- o f T r i p s  22a  Shipments  22b  Trucks  22c  Capacity  23  B . C. C o a s t S a w m i l l s : T o t a l O r d e r s on Hand, P r o d u c t i o n and S h i p m e n t s (1959-1972)  216  24  B . C. C o a s t S a w m i l l s : L o c a l O r d e r s on Hand a n d L o c a l Shipments (1959-1972)  218  25  B . C. C o a s t S a w m i l l s : Truck and Load Shipments by Month (1960-1970)  219  26a  Total Order-Shipment Cycle  (1959-1965)  224  26b  Total  (1966-1970)  225  27  Local Order-Shipment Cycle (1966-1970)  to Retailers  169  Owned b y R e t a i l e r s  169 169  of Trucks  Order-Shipment Cycle  (19 5 9 - 1 9 65)! • a n d 227  - v i i i  -  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  The f o l l o w i n g a r e a c k n o w l e d g e d f o r t h e i r a s s i s t a n c e in the completion of this thesis: Dr. Walter Hardwick, and i n s i g h t . Dr. for  f o rh i s guidance,  encouragement  J . D. C h a p m a n , D r . R. L . L e i g h , a n d D r . T. H e a v e r t h e i r c o n t i n u a l support and c o n s t r u c t i v e c r i t i c i s m .  Wood p r o d u c t s the p r o v i s i o n  manufacturers i n t h e Vancouver of confidential data.  The C a n a d i a n T r a n s p o r t C o m m i s s i o n support.  area f o r  for i t s financial  Harry and J u l i e Swain, f o rl a b o u r i n g over t h e i l l u s t r a t i o n s d u r i n g a n O t t a w a summer. Pat  Coughlin and Karen K l e i n  f o rt y p i n g t h e manuscript.  - 1 -  CHAPTER 1  INTRODUCTION  Context The commercial describes on  subject  vehicles and t e s t s  of this  i n urban  most s i g n i f i c a n t  sis  during  sons  This  advances  and urban  little  freight  study i s a p a r t i a l  plains uring  areas.  In particular,  influence  characteristics  sites  i n urban  movement e x p l a n a t i o n  o f the s i t e , such  market  that  or forecasting. I t ex-  demand a t m a n u f a c t -  not only  to the  internal  but also t o  i . e . i t s supply and  are fundamental  reasons  f o r improving our  understanding o f the nature o f commercial  to  commercial  areas. There  modity  of  imbalance.  as i t s s i z e ,  linkages,  analy-  respect to per-  p r o g r e s s on t h e s i d e  i s a response  sites.  transportation  redress of this  nature of i t s external  factors  generated at i n d u s t r i a l  why t h e v o l u m e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and r e t a i l  the study  of several  r e c e n t y e a r s h a v e b e e n made w i t h  movement, w i t h  vehicle  trips  o f the Study  r e s e a r c h i s t h e movement o f  the causal  the volume o f t r u c k  The  the  and Purpose  flows i n urban school  areas.  vehicle  a n d com-  One r e a s o n i s t o l e n d  o f thought which  views  but n e v e r t h e l e s s understandable system  the city of  as a  support complex  interrelated  - 2 -  activities.  The b a s i c  research  i s that  vities.  These  they and  activities  dynamic  tion  terms  T h e y may  other  through space.  between  activities  dimension)  as t h e i r  uses,  t o urban  geography.  definition  o f t h e scope  assertion;  a cursory  irical  behaviour  activities  with  each  linkages  them a  o f urban  spatial and p r e d i c -  transportation  i s no n e e d  geography  i t s importance."'"  t o attempt  t o defend  this  it. i s the theoretical has  a n d emp-  contributed  our understanding of the present structure  movement o f f r e i g h t  a  However, i n t r a n s -  o f p a s s e n g e r movement w h i c h  o f urban  of  and i t s b e h a v i o u r as a  There  o f urban  research generally  most towards  transporta-  glance at recent general treatments of  indicates  analysis  of  and i n t e n s i t i e s  t o give  characteristics  research  portation  Urban  to the explanation  This i s the contribution  subject  i n terms  An u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e s e  i s a prerequisite  of the city's  patterns  associate  (or land  density,  may b e r e s p o n s i v e o r g o a l -  system.  the  volume,  c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e two.  functionally  acti-  components, and  a l s o be d e s c r i b e d  research i s concerned with  movement w h i c h  transportation  of inter-related  are the system  behaviour, which  o r some  o f urban  i s a system  i n such  distribution.  seeking,  tion  the city  are described  their  assumption  areas.  This,  despite  the fact  i s k n o w n t o be a s i g n i f i c a n t  and  that the  determinant  Indeed " d e f i n i t i o n s o f scope" are probably outm o d e d ; s e e B e r r y , B. J . L . a n d F. E . H o r t o n , ( e d . ) G e o g r a p h i c P e r s p e c t i o n s on Urban Systems, (Englewood C l i f f s , N . J . : Prentice-Hail,. 1970),a n d L . S. B o u r n e , I n t e r n a l S t r u c t u r e o f t h e C i t y , (London: O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 7 1 ) , f o r an i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e scope o f urban geography.  -  of  many c o m m e r c i a l The  and  ability  to plan  and  the  to  how  achieve  tional is  to encourage  equity, in  desired.  efficiency,  the  brought to ing  the  run  b e a r on  amount o f  labour,  the  risk  by  from  the  efficiency achieved  and  existence  information  the  ant  distribute mercial  a l l polluting  goal  i s also  the  vehicles  do  power  goal  say,  is  rules  govern-  require  a  being  sub-  Otherwise  equity,  which  we  for  located  dis-  sacrifice  to  been  way. required  to  The  correct market indivisibility  externalities. fully  pay  failof  latter is especially  s e c t o r , whose r e s p o n s i b i l i t y  not  some-  distribu-  (reduce p o l l u t i o n ) had  from e i t h e r the  impact of  is  planning  materials.  firms  that  requirements  w i t h o u t knowing e i t h e r the  result  public  and  urban  That i s to  f i r m s , we  distributional  from e x t e r n a l i t i e s .  f o r the  of  operating  about t h e i r  to markets  most e f f e c t i v e  u r e s w h i c h may  of  in  which  planning  and  our  distributional  criteria.  before  locational  or whether the  Planning  good or  thesis,  achieving  city,  many s t a t e s  efficiency  urban  effectiveness;  m o s t common g e n e r a l  the  example might e n t a i l tant  Planning  s t a t e which maximizes  access of  are  into  improve  income d i s t r i b u t i o n  the  this  behaviour  stantial land,  that  of  i s to  distributional  There  and  constrained context  flows  urban p h y s i c a l p l a n t .  a balance of  generally  locations.  for needing research  commodity  a r e a s i s required-to a c h i e v e is  -  industrial  second reason  commercial v e h i c l e  3  f o r the  I t may  a import-  i t i s to be  that  congestion,  recom-  noise  - 4 -  and  a i r pollution  streets.  This  and g e n e r a l  contention,  bably  b e r e j e c t e d , b u t how  truck  transport  by  on u r b a n  re-arranging  t o know w h i c h  land  i n c o n v e n i e n c e they cause on  city  i f i t were h y p o t h e s i z e d , would  pro-  t h e n d o we  areas?  uses?  activities  reduce  the impact o f  By r e s t r i c t i n g  This  require  brings  trip-making;  us back  t o t h e need  how m u c h t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ,  and  f o r what r e a s o n . Of cess  t h e three major  - analysis,  design,  concerned only with part  components o f t h e p l a n n i n g  and p o l i c y - m a k i n g - t h i s  the f i r s t .  Urban  geographers  company a t t h e d e s i g n s t a g e b u t t h e i r  sis  are partly  its  assumptions The  coincident. and methods  Approach  t o w h i c h we now  and Method  f o rthis  important f o r t h e urban  adds  clarity  geographer  t o t h e notions o f "system  and p l a n n e r s  of  i n analy-  analysis,  turn. Study  Linkages between o t h e r w i s e d i s t i n c t are  thesis i s  interests  I t i s the question  pro-  urban  activities  and p l a n n e r . component"  and  Chapin "linkage" 2  through h i s d e f i n i t i o n s activity uals,  patterns".  institutions,  Examples  systems  which  of  An  individ-  occur i n spatial  relevant  which produce,  i n cities.  case - Chapin uses  Illinois:  and f i r m s  of activity  a r e those endeavours  consume c o m m o d i t i e s special  a n d movement s y s t e m s .  system comprises the "behaviour patterns  families,  thesis  of activity  to  transport,  this trade,  "Transport" i s something o f a  the term  "movement s y s t e m "  - for i t  C h a p i n , F. S. U r b a n L a n d U s e P l a n n i n g , ( U r b a n a , U n i v e r s i t y o f I l l i n o i s P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 ) C h a p t e r s 6 a n d 8.  - 5 -  aids  the p h y s i c a l c i r c u l a t i o n  between a c t i v i t y  systems.  o f c o m m o d i t i e s b o t h w i t h i n and  We may d e t e c t  systems-within-  systems c o n s t r a i n e d o n l y t h e the l o g i c o f d e f i n i n g m i c r o systems o f a c t i v i t y , and  computational  analysis,  activity  although  site  aggregation, Chapter  II.  trip  patterns  portation is  linkages.  sites,  be  Zonal  reviewed  t o observe  that  a r e measures o f t h e i n t e n s i t y of trip  generation  t o the planning o f fixed  and p u b l i c investment t h a t such  t o o u r knowledge o f t h e f a c t o r s  rates  zones.  and t h a t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t r i p  time  are e s s e n t i a l  a l s o some e v i d e n c e  location.  and t o s a t i s f y  may be g r o u p e d i n t o  Explanations  facilities  unit of  are s p a t i a l manifestations o f l i n k -  rates per unit  patterns  computation  F o r now i t i s s u f f i c i e n t  ages between a c t i v i t y  these  the l o g i c a l  however, p o s e s p r o b l e m s w h i c h w i l l  transportation  generation  i s normally  to f a c i l i t a t e  many p l a n n i n g n e e d s , s i t e s  of  resources,  research objectives. The  in  and i n s t i t u t i o n a l  These q u e s t i o n s  r a t e s and trans-  invehiclesthere  e x p l a n a t i o n s may c o n t r i b u t e influencing  o f aggregation,  and p a t t e r n s , and r e l e v a n c e  activity trip  to planning  site  generation  and l o c a t i o n  all  i n f l u e n c e t h e m e t h o d o l o g y u s e d , h y p o t h e s e s t e s t e d , and  the  significance It  research  and u s e f u l n e s s o f r e s e a r c h  results.  i s a fundamental assumption o f t h e c l a s s o f  t o which  this  t h e s i s belongs  s y s t e m i s made up o f components whose may be m o d e l l e d .  that the c i t y  as a  interrelationships  T h i s i s b a s e d on t h e b e l i e f  that within  - 6 -  the  complexity  order,  of  urban  a quantifiable  response  to stimuli  requisite  This It  a model of terms o f  area  logic,  m u s t be  i s the  i s not  urban  transport.  the  model  i s an  a b s t r a c t e d as  The  i s almost  and  e x p l a i n i n g , and  environment. parallel  that of  weaker than urban  The  intention  of  study  this  success  to  those  for this  non-existent.  the  research  concentrates able  tacitly  on  of model  fitting)  and  theory.  modelling  accepts  calibration  model t e s t i n g ,  foundations  of  one  relationship  kind of  rather  than  probable rather  another.  foundationsof  than  model  Two analyze  the  distinct  city  as  on  approaches  a system.  the  testing are  First,  and  availon  ques-  parameter  behavioural  study  to  expect  components  focuses  on  the  truck transport, problems.  available the  most and  have  (or system)  urban  or  is far  theory  a priori,  this  known  therefore  results  definition  less  and  behind  a result,  T h u s we  research  between model  calibration  as  weakness of  and  of  passen-  theory  science theory  l e a d us,  a theory  in  in  s u b j e c t and i t s  available;  Consequently,  construct  i s comparable  model s h o u l d  (variable  the model w h i c h  to  relationships  problem.  but  models.  available  theory's  the  literature  pre-  A model i s a r e p r e s e n t a t i o n  the  tools  of  i s that the  Social  the modelling  a l a r g e body o f  tions  between the  and  f o r e c a s t i n g urban  use  structure of the  essential  f o r the  reason  to exist  behaviour,;  rationale  a t h e o r y , which, i n t u r n i s a s e t o f  hypothesized  underlying  an  truck t r a n s p o r t a t i o n which  complexity  ger  the  there  whose s t r u c t u r e ,  to understanding,  phenomena.  of  the  by  dynamic  which  to  approach  -  examines forces in  the  may  forces  be  acting  policies  system behaviour:  tion mic  o f income, activity  the system  societal  technology.  least  defensible  ships  among i n t e r n a l  therefore,  on  urbanization,  system behaviour r e l y  ing  -  system  approach. building  second  As  suggested above,  o f dynamic  micro-relationships This  approach  location, price,  relies  an  It i s partial,  assumed and  model. might family is  time.  disposable  immediate  the  tested.  behavioural  urban  to  theories  activity  about  or commodities  the the  systems.  choice of  demanded a t  on  that  only  c a u s a l way  a  a function  income. data which  attribute  The  approach  refer  ability  per  of  the  household  size  and  is static;  the  specific  point  in  the degree  to  t o one  i s limited  causality  set  related  to the subject  of household  a vice  finite  can be  number o f a u t o m o b i l e t r i p s  Its forecasting can  been  a  i t i s concerned w i t h  i n the sense  h y p o t h e s i z e d t o be  w h i c h we  surpris-  areas are  are modelled - those which  F o r example,  calibrated  I t i s not  termed  at  relation-  i t i s a prerequisite  on  of  i n s u p p l y g i v e n a change i n demand, and  of relationships in  be  between d i f f e r e n t heavily  models  the nature of  tentatively  since  volume o f s e r v i c e s  changes  versa.  models  econo-  understanding of or  about  may  distribu-  or changing  models o f urban  option  Such changes  i n the  However, dynamic  r e c e n t phenomena and have o n l y The  changes  components.  dynamic  a whole-  stimulate  values,  upon a c l e a r  assumptions  that  as  or processes which  shifting  and  7  by  to relationships  model  specified  - 8 -  in  the model,  by  our  ability  v a r i a b l e s and-future values, environment remain  (other  constructs  incorporate  mic  simulation  the  static  models.  partial  selected  Out  hope  attempt  to  the  relationships  of  demand.  major  and  households  services  in this who  i n an  either  buy  themselves"  and  by  as  values,  and  of  of  found  needs,  in  and  i t s inclusion  urban  the  means  commodity may  significance  relates  to  one  day  and  firms  The  major  directly "buy  buy  "open"  trans-  i s consumed  services gain  and  i n recog-  output of  which  to  the  entity  which  system,  to  transportation  i s a productive  open  who  dyna-  essentially  t h e s e , we  transportation  firms  do  models.  i s a service  w i t h other goods...or  of  i s t o be  Despite the  such  linkages.  system  as  analysis  city  theore-  which  i t i s of necessity  of households  inter-city  such  approach,  which  the  approaches  for this  assumption  that  and  characteristic  simulation  i s that  assume  sell  portation  blocks  complete  largely  of  f o r the  models  the''-Mnkageswbeitweeh" a c t i v i t i e s  activity.  of building  consisting goods  and  relationships,  analysis We  reason  of.intangibles  study  uses  mechanisms  theisyistem  Another method  which  a behavioural  i n this  flows.  for  extent to which  behavioural  The  i n human  nature of  only  ation  the  "un-modelled")  on  feedback  importance  opportunities  nition  by  research  relies  thetcemplexity." o f  of  urban,  urban  not  and  and  independent  constant. Most  tical  t o estimate the  place  transport  in  by  combin-  utility  services  as  - 9 -  a  factor of production.  transportation  i s a derived  case o f firms  at least,  ties  consumed.  o f goods  demand s h o u l d for  is  t h e demand f o r  demand w h o s e m a g n i t u d e ,  should  i n the  be a f u n c t i o n o f t h e q u a n t i -  The s p a t i a l  o f those  6ccurrence.-of•;  this  goods.  the appropriate  ton-miles  words,  b e a r e s p o n s e t o t h e l o c a t i o n s o f t h e demand  and s u p p l y If  In other  m e a s u r e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n demand  as i t m i g h t be f o r l o c a t i o n p r o b l e m s ,  then the  p r o b l e m i s one i n v o l v i n g "goods movement";  i f , however,  wish  measures o f s i g -  to convert  nificance  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n demand  f o r urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system planning,  mate o f v e h i c l e  ( t r u c k ) movement  Organization It the  continue  stage  although this  only  main  are  presented;  ing  Findings  t h e s i s t h a t some  This trip  the f i r s t  stage  drawbacks o f t h i s  approach  of the basic  involves  generation,  - trip  movements.  traditional  network, - i s applied  In Chapter  procedure  a real  behaviour.  I I , the  f o r analysis  aggregating  and f o r e c a s t i n g w i t h o u t  causes o f trip-making  a multi-  distribution,  generation  i tinvolves problems with  i n zones,  version of  assignment t o t h e transport  t h e s i s t o urban truck  two  analysis  procedure:  and t r i p  esti-  t o urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n a l y s i s  t o be u s e f u l .  modelling  modal s p l i t  in  approach  an  i s required.  and M a j o r  i s assumed i n t h i s  traditional  will  into  we  units of  understandJustification  3 S n e l l , J . a n d P. W. S h u l d i n e r . A n a l y s i s o f Urban Transportation Research. ( E v a n s t o n , 1 1 1 . : The T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C e n t e r , N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y , 1966), p. 10.  -  is  made f o r s t u d y i n g  vidual ing  units  the  of  causal  factors  are  generation divided  i n t o two  conceptual  which truck However, the  The  of  variable  firm,  for  the  and  r e l a t i o n s h i p s has  conclusions and  surveys i n that  no  m o d e l Of  this  model  g e n e r a t e d by the  s i z e of  but  also  i s that  the  or  truck  and  type  site,  and of  to  identified. to  date  analysis  overly  transportation  simp-  demand  variables  development of  transportation.  site  i n terms of  size)  the  volume of  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of  function,  have  truck  a manufacturing  tion,  physical  i s devoted to  urban  that  Chapter  size.  Chapter IV  of  of  causal  trips) i s attributed s o l e l y to w i t h i n - s i t e  keting  first  c a r r i e d out  (truck  employment  re-  constraints  been attempted,  variation in local  truck  The  i n that  as  the  of  models/proposed  studies/surveys.  variables  studies  isolat-  discussion  f r e i g h t movement r e s p o n d s m u s t be  empirical  indi-  and  listic  such  of  analyses  selected  conceptual  have been e i t h e r n o n - e x p l a n a t o r y , of  the  previous  supports  set  behaviour  behaviour.  studies  empirical  studies,  distinct  and  case  such  groups:  group,  the  behind  rates.  s t r a t e g i e s , and  that  in this  III investigates  search  II:  -  transportation  analysis,  Chapter trip  the  10  the  and  main  mar-  premiss  commercial v e h i c l e - t r i p s  is a  function  numbers o f  market  for  d i s t r i b u t i o n environment of  the  In  not  only  of  employees,  the  transportation  ownership e s p e c i a l l y ) .  significant implications  The  a  product  supply  (loca-  (size  other words,  firm i s asserted  for transportation  demand.  of the to  - 11 -  Transportation is  discussed,  ply  on t r u c k  tion  theory  demand's r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h the possible trip  demand  the  in  that  the volume o f l o c a l  couver  a r e a was c o n d u c t e d  explains while  generation  a-test  rates  i s shipped  i n the Van-  trip-generation  i s modified  by  survey  releases  of the local  approach used a secondary  specifically  market  generation  V  and r e l a t e s them t o vehicle  carrying  second  experience introduces taking  f o r the  rates. trip  gener-  d a t a on t h e  o f s i t e s which constitute Chapter V I I I  model  improves t h e  to estimate  benefit:  a  that  to retailers  of trip  market o f the manufacturer. a t t r a c t i o n rates  I t i s found  directly  and e s t i m a t i o n  attraction rates  supply,  previously  Chapter  Chapter V I I t e s t s  i . e . one w h i c h  account the proportion  The  trip  40 f i r m s  such data.  o f the  distribution variables.  explanation  trip  and  movement.  survey of over  size variables.  model,  product which  ation  to  variations  i n t e s t i n g t h e p l a n t - s i z e model and which  physical  lead  t h e survey procedure and t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s ,  based on p l a n t  into  industrial  which  usefully explain  t o produce  Chapter VI provides  gained  from  t o t e s t t h i s m o d e l were n o t  and an i n - d e p t h  sup-  loca-  distribution.channel  commercial v e h i c l e  Adequate data  transport  insight into the  distribution analysis  i tcould  demand  and i n d u s t r i a l  for further  the physical  behaviour within  available,  of truck  However, i t i s c o n c e p t s  and p h y s i c a l  hypothesis  firm  i s assessed,  i s investigated  behaviour of firms. structure  influence  commodity  the local  analyzes  these '  transportation  capacity.  -  Chapter the  IX  based,  and  of  changes i n these  the  troduction  major  of  distribution  effect  generation  gaps  generalized i n our  trips  the  used  g e n e r a t e d by  customer's  truck  to  the  holds  only  wisdom.  influence  trade  the  of  but  transport  at  first  trip  one  with  the  considered  however,  or  volume  This size,  i t i s also supply,  asso-  notably  might  of  number o f  seem a t  to  increase.  odds  with  decline This  is  with attri-  5  them.  retailer  attraction rates  capacity.' . U i M . t s , a a n d r p r b b a b l y  and  i s . t h e most i m p o r t a n t e x p l a n a t o r y  associated  of  wholesaler,  making does n o t  appears truck  trip  c e r t a i n s p e c i a l cases, being  in-  type  i n consignment  retailers'  Local  i f anything  for  the  ownership.  which  ages between p a i r s o f city  itsf  analysis of  but  buted  products  and  conclusions  distance,  recommends  i s that  (retailer,  activity,  the  conventional  and  identi-  a manufacturing s i t e .  variations i n truck  to  conclusions,  analysis  locally  ciated with  leads  f o r model l i m i t a t i o n s  does have a marked i n f l u e n c e on.the  the  The  which  attraction rates  knowledge,  i s l a r g e l y due,to differences  s i z e of  upon  research.  finding of  channel  d e p e n d i n g on  and  marketing variables, s p e c i f i c a l l y  re-manufacturer), truck  conditions  implications  draws  for further The  of  the  the  conditions.  significant  priorities  trip  assesses  Chapter X fies  -  evaluates  m a r k e t i n g model of  is  12  For  the the  Vancouver  most i n t e n s e  manufacturer,  truck  variable; i t is  trips.  wood linkcapa-  positively  Where a l l l i n k a g e s  i n c l u d i n g those which  are  weak, the  are number  - 13 -  of  suppliers  t o each r e t a i l e r  i s the dominant  explanatory  variable. Several never been  tested  to one i n d u s t r y ledge  about  demand  not hold  Although special  structure only  when u s e d  transport  truck  have  applied  to create  i s placed lags  t o assess  under which  new  only  know-  transport  the model  f o r forecasting are conditions  on changes  are  the underlying  demand h a v e b e e n  evaluated.  i n t h e volume o f  (production),  and m a r k e t i n g .  the validity  will  postulated,  between t h e independent  and i t s p r e d i c t o r  possible  serve  factors behind  future  of manufacturing  way b e c a u s e  does  the conditions  shipments, possible (shipments)  effects  areas.  ten possible emphasis  and t h e i r  so t h e a n a l y s i s , w h i l e  the behavioural  i n local  will  before,  i n one c i t y ,  Lastly, or  o f these v a r i a b l e s  local  variable  and t h e changing Naturally,  i t i s  o f the model i n t h i s  causes o f v a r i a t i o n i n truck identified  initially.  CHAPTER I I  DEFICIENCIES  I N URBAN  TRANSPORTATION  Transportation Planning The ence  d i s c u s s i o n which  t o persons'  most s i g n i f i c a n t b e e n made field,  PLANNING  Methodology  follows i s with primary  movement i n c i t i e s . methodological  I t i s here  and a n a l y t i c a l  on g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e  that the  advances  i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g ; weaknesses  t h e r e f o r e , take  refer-  have  i n this  whenever  goods  movement i s c o n s i d e r e d . The ing  urban  classical  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n demand u s e s (1)  trips  into  trip  by which (4)  (3)  generation:  Trip  people Trip  t o the present  procedure:  e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e number of traffic  zones.  d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e means o f  and goods  assignment: o r some  the following  forecast-  zones.  between p a i r s  Modal s p l i t :  and  e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e number o f  distribution:  interchanges (3)  travel  Trip  and out o f t r a f f i c (2)  of  method o f " e x p l a i n i n g "  move. allocation  o f the output  of  f u t u r e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n network." " 1  I t i s n o t suggested t h a t t h i s format i s u n i v e r s a l l y adhered t o . I t i s p r e s e n t e d as a norm t o w h i c h v a r i a t i o n s and r e f i n e m e n t s may b e a d d e d . A common v a r i a t i o n i s t h e c o m b i n i n g of g e n e r a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n s t a g e s i n t o one p r o c e s s , as i n the use ofagravitydmbdels.  - 15  Once s t a g e estimated: predicted  excess activity  (4) i s c o m p l e t e ,  t r a v e l over l i n k  and is  planning obviously  rational icy  wards the  most  ning.  sequential  extremely  and e f f i c i e n t  trip  to  process  important method  of guiding  facilities. research  and used. that  investment  has been  split;  these  and  (1), trip  generation  estimation,  the r e l a t i o n s h i p between  measures  describing  normally  used t o describe (1)  The Y  where: Y X,.......X  (2)  n  land  generation  use. this  One  pol-  are c e r t a i n l y plan-  dependent  information.  recognition  t r a v e l behaviour  a  directed to-  of results i s heavily  o f good t r i p  I t  i t be  t e c h n i c a l l y complex phases o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n the accuracy  of  transportation  f o r our c i t i e s  d i s t r i b u t i o n and modal  However  and  i s  In  given  various  o f two t e c h n i q u e s  are  relationship:  l i n e a r least-squares a + b.X, 1 1  .b  model: X  n  t r i p s generated t r a f f i c zones.  n  from or a t t r a c t e d  to  are explanatory v a r i a b l e s w h i c h may b e s o c i o - e c o n o m i c , o r measure l o c a t i o n , density, r e l a t i v e accessibility to a l t e r n a t i v e modes, e t c .  Category  non-parametric version employs  documented  be  the impact  of transportation  Most o f the a t t e n t i o n  on t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y stage  capacity,  transportation  has been very widely  decisions.  t h e f o l l o w i n g may  s y t e m c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s on  d e m a n d , o r t h e i m p a c t o f new This  -  analysis:  this  i s essentially a  of the least-squares  c r o s s - c l a s s i f i c a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s , was  model. first  I t developed  -  in  the  the  Puget Sound S t u d y , U.K.  one  -  and  has  found  i t s greatest  uses  in  2  (3) greater  16  A  third  technique  which w i l l  attention i s simulation modelling.  proposed  a p p l i c a t i o n to urban  undoubtedly Putman  transportation  see  discusses  planning  3 which  explicitly  includes  models have a conceptual they  are  dynamic  variables model's of  one  ility  through  time,  s t r u c t u r e ) , and run  of  the  systems,  gression through  of  models (a)  o r more a c c u r a t e l y the i s an may  Simulation models  behaviour  e s s e n t i a l component o f  be  stochastic: one  results.  of  The  an  main  in  that of  the  i . e . the  result  e m p i r i c a l probabadvantages  of  are:  They and  advantage over s t a t i c  model i s but  distribution  simulation  plex  (time,  commodity movements.  allow  us  to  analyse  causal  chains  in  o v e r c o m e some d e f i c i e n c i e s o f m u l t i p l e  techniques  i n observing  the  behaviour  of  comre-  systems  time. (b)  They  machine i n t e r a c t i o n ,  are and  s t r u c t u r e d so thus  as  to  perform useful  allow  for  man-  learning-process  functions.  W.ialker, J . R. " R a n k C l a s s i f i c a t i o n : A Procedure f o r D e t e r m i n i n g Future T r i p Ends," Highway Research Board, R e c o r d , 240, (1968).  3 P u t m a n , S. H. "An I n t e g r a t e d S y s t e m o f M o d e s f o r the A n a l y s i s of Urban Transport I n t e r f a c e s , " Transportation J o u r n a l , ( S p r i n g , 1971), 29-39.  - 17 -  (c) anisms the  which  Simulation  models,  by c o n t a i n i n g  feedback  a l l o w m o d e l o u t p u t s t o b e r e r u n as i n p u t s ,  continuity The  o f system  which  and  main problems  (usually)  i n simulation  the lack  of firm  t o estimate the structure  quently, stages  such  models  - at least  model  behaviour. models  are their  enormous d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s , c o m p u t a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e ments,  mech-  theoretical  o f system  a r e , a t t h e moment,  as f a r as u r b a n  requirebases  behaviour.  on  Conse-  i n experimental  socio-economic  systems  are  concerned. The types  development  and t e s t i n g  has been almost e x c l u s i v e l y  of the f i r s t  i n terms  portation  demand; w o r k o n s i m u l a t i o n  infancy.  Where c o m m e r c i a l  vehicle  f r o m one s t u d y to- a n o t h e r .  reasons  for their  association Table  rather  selection than  1 demonstrates  trip  been used  that  causal  have  inconsist h e .-.  close  structure.  of variables  which  have  i n the past. Furthermore,  merits  have been  on a p p a r e n t  any u n d e r l y i n g range  trans-  generation rates  This suggests  are based  t h e wide  of persons'  models i s o n l y i ni t s  been e s t i m a t e d , t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s tent  two model  of trip  ment, Douglas  i n their  s h o r t summary o f t h e r e l a t i v e  generation techniques applied and Lewis  found  were improvements on a g g r e g a t e  that  to persons  household-based  (zonal)  " . . . t r i p end models based be r e j e c t e d . Such models u n s t a b l e from one a r e a t o there i s l i t t l e reason f o  move-  models  models:  on zones s h o u l d h a v e shown t o be another; hence, r assuming they  - 18 -  TABLE 1 FACTORS USED TO ESTIMATE TRUCK TRIP ATTRACTIONS IN SELECTED CITIES C i t y - year Washington,  D.C.  Variables  Key t o V a r i a b l e s  none  E = T o t a l employment  1963  E^= R e t a i l employment  New O r l e a n s , L a . I960  Kansas C i t y , Mo.  DU,D,E, A ,SC c  E = M a n u f a c t u r i n g employment m E = Commercial employment  none  E = Employment o t h e r t h a n r e t a i l & mfg.  1959  c  F t . Worth, Tex. 196k  P,E ,E , E  E = Various specialized employment  C h a r l e s t o n , W.Va.  E ,T,S ,  S = R e t a i l s a l e s by v a r i o u s V specialized categories  C  m  0  1965  V  V  A.= A c r e s o f i n d u s t r i a l l a n d 1  N a s h v i l l e , . Tenn.  none  Chattanooga, Tenn.  none  196l  1962  A = A c r e s o f Commercial c  Land  SC= T o t a l s c h o o l e n r o l l m e n t P = Population  Waterbury,  P,E ,E , c m  Conn.  1963  P,E ,E , ' r' m  E r i e , Pa. 1963  Greensboro, 196k  P,E ,E , c m  N.C.  C,E,E ' r  F a r g o , N.D. 1965  DU= Number o f D w e l l i n g U n i t s I = Income C = Number o f a u t o m o b i l e s D = D i s t a n c e from CBD . . T = Truck  ownership  DU,E,A , A.  A p p l e t o n , Wis. 1965  C  1  Source: S h u l d i n e r , P.Q. "Land Use, A c t i v i t y , and N o n - R e s i d e n t i a l T r i p G e n e r a t i o n , " Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , R e c o r d , 1^1 (1966),  p. 1 2 .  -  19  -  w i l l be s t a b l e o v e r t i m e . . . F u t u r e w o r k s h o u l d c o n c e n t r a t e on the d e v e l o p m e n t o f household models, i n o r d e r t h a t a l l the important parameters a f f e c t i n g t r i p g e n e r a t i o n c a n be i s o l a t e d . " The squares such  regression  are  t o w a r d s an There  also  favoured  analysis  as  the  retention  a means t o w a r d s  of  least-  developing  models.^ The  one:  authors  question  being  p r e s e n t methods o f axiomatic  i s increasing  raised here i s a trip  formulation evidence  that  most s e r i o u s  allegations against  is  generation  that  trip  variables  may  or  which e x i s t s i n  may  not  generation of  the  they  analysis  subject's are  not.  One  a  transport  functional  moving  contents?  most t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  models r e l a t i n g describe  fundamental  of  the  studies  average  relationship  reality:  "...to date i n the area of f o r e c a s t i n g t r a f f i c movements, t h e e m p h a s i s has been on what p e o p l e do, w i t h r e l a t i v e l y little a t t e n t i o n d e v o t e d t o why t h e y c h o o s e t o  D o u g l a s , A.A. and R.J. L e w i s . "Trip Generation Techniques", T r a f f i c Engineering and C o n t r o l , (November 1970 to February 1971). """The a x i o m a t i c m e t h o d c o n s i s t s o f f o r m u l a t i n g a s e t of p r o p o s i t i o n s w h i c h must f u l f i l l c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n s . T h e y m u s t be f r e e o f c o n t r a d i c t i o n s , and t h e d e d u c t i o n s der i v e d from them must c o n t a i n our knowledge of the f i e l d and . . . . h o p e f u l l y , l e a d t o i n s i g h t s " . 0. M o r g e n s t e r n , " L i m i t s o f the Uses o f M a t h e m a t i c s i n E c o n o m i c s , " M a t h e m a t i c s and t h e S o c i a l S c i e n c e s , e d . J . C. C h a r l e s w o r t h ( P h i l a d e l p h i a : The A m e r i c a n A c a d e m y o f P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l S c i e n c e , 1963), p. 23.  - 20 -  do w h a t t h e y d o . A t r a f f i c p r o j e c t i o n b a s e d o n how p e o p l e h a v e b e h a v e d i n t h e p a s t i m p l i c i t l y assumes p e o p l e w i l l beh a v e o n t h e a v e r a g e t h e same way i n t h e future....Intuitively we k n o w t h a t m a n ' s behaviour i s constantly changing i n r e sponse t o h i s s o c i a l system."6 If, "people" the  sized ual  and "economic"  problem  research  i n t h e above  the internal  behaviour.  disciplines  we  this  outside  we h a v e  thesis  "firms" f o r  a statement o f  i s directed.  Recent  of passenger transportation  characteristics  This  substitute  for "social"  towards which  i n the f i e l d  lines,  line  o f households  o f research has r e l i e d  urban  geography  consumer b e h a v i o u r t h e o r y ,  social  h a s emphaand  individ-  strongly  and planning,  mainly  psychology and  attitude  on  7 studies. Before  of  parti-  cular  r e l e v a n c e t o t h e goods movement model p r e s e n t e d  later,  there  a r e two p a r t i c u l a r  be  briefly  tion.  summarizing  methodological problems  i n t r o d u c e d now:  They  are consequent  implications  the previous research  forecasting  and l e v e l  which  o f aggrega-  upon t h e above d i s c u s s i o n  f o r the approach  should  taken i n the subsequent  and have modeling  process. Forecasting The cities  purpose  i s to abstract  o f modeling reality  transportation  s o t h a t we  demand i n  can s t u d y i t s most  g Chaplin,  F. S.,  l o c . c i t . , p. 225  7 S t ' o w e r s , J . R. a n d E . L . K a n w i t . "The U s e o f Behavioural Surveys i n Forecasting Transportation Requirem e n t s , " H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h B o a r d , R e c o r d , 106 ( 1 9 6 6 ) , 4 4 - 5 1 .  -  significant future.  There  i s an  will  For  of  estimates  to  hardly  is a  spread  data  i t t o be  sufficiently  of  through  little  most o f  that  to find  a model  If this  progress  our  time.. five  which  apparent f i t  relationships  problem  the  observed  f o r t r a n s p o r t , say  i n modeling  important  comment, a l t h o u g h  b e e n made t o w a r d s  easy  logical  use  planning for  however,  i n question.  represent a set of  and  for, l e n g t h y p e r i o d s of  s h o r t - t e r m demand  f i t the  expect  running  somehow h o l d  hence, i t i s r e l a t i v e l y  does not  This  assumption  planning procedures,  relationships  appears  -  features while anticipating  transportation  years  21  we  long-term  can change.  t o have drawn appears  to  wide-  have  i t solution.  "In p r e d i c t i n g t h e o r i g i n s and d e s t i n a t i o n s of f u t u r e t r a v e l , . t h e u s u a l method i s t o assume t h a t the p r e s e n t t r i p p r o d u c t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w i l l not change through t i m e , and c a n be d i r e c t l y u s e d t o e s t i m a t e f u t u r e trips. R e c e n t l y b u d g e t s t u d y d a t a and t h e r e s u l t s f r o m r e p e a t 0-D, s u r v e y s h a v e s h o w n t h a t t h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s n o t t r u e , and c a n l e a d t o considerable errors i n future estimates...enough i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e f r o m 0-D surveys, economic study groups, market a n a l y s i s r e p o r t s , etc. t o w a r r a n t a s e r i o u s a t t e m p t a t a more r a t i o n a l approach to e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e t r i p generation characteristics. This research i s v e r y e s s e n t i a l , as e s t i m a t e s o f f u t u r e t r i p o r i g i n s and d e s t i n a t i o n s , i n t e r z o n a l t r a n s f e r s , and t h e a s s i g n m e n t o f t r a f f i c t o the f u t u r e network a l l o r i g i n a t e from the t r i p generation characteristics u t i l i z e d . " ^  M a r t i n , B. V., F. W. M e m m o t t , A. J . B o n e ; , Princ i p l e s a n d T e c h n i q u e s Of P r e d i c t i n g F u t u r e Demand f o r U r b a n Area Transportation. (Cambridge: M. I . T., R e s e a r c h P a p e r Report 38), June, 1961.  - 22 -  Both Quandt and P e s k i n  made a s i m i l a r p o i n t  i n 1965:  Neglect of behavioural d e t a i l and various technical factors i s appropriate t o forec a s t i n g under those c i r c u m s t a n c e s where the f a c t o r s cannot be e x p e c t e d t o change v e r y much d u r i n g t h e f o r e c a s t p e r i o d . "The longer-term transportation forecast . . . r e q u i r e s as d e e p e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f the determinants o f t r a v e l than has conv e n t i o n a l l y been the case. Certain of these determinants, which over short time p e r i o d s c a n be assumed c o n s t a n t , have changed h i s t o r i c a l l y and can be e x p e c t e d t o change o v e r l o n g time p e r i o d s . They i n c l u d e , b e s i d e s p o p u l a t i o n and w e a l t h , the supply and t e c h n i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of transportation f a c i l i t i e s . "These l o n g e r - t e r m models must s p e c i f y b e h a v i o u r a l and c a s u a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t have been l a r g e l y overlooked i n t h e past."9 In rethink  t h e same v o l u m e , Q u a n d t p o i n t s  much o f t h e p r e s e n t t h e o r e t i c a l and s t a t i s t i c a l  odology.  He p o s e s  considerations other kind  that  lead  including:  respect  of research  development o f adequate  more work  "what a r e t h e t h e o r e t i c a l  one t o e x p e c t  of behaviour with  Quandt's discussion  meth-  a v a r i e t y o f q u e s t i o n s w h i c h must be  answered i n t h e f u t u r e ,  the  o u t t h e need t o  a priori  one o r a n -  to travel?""^  B y 19 7 0 ,  needs has changed l i t t l e :  transportation  i s needed i n a v a r i e t y  of areas,  demand  i n  functions,  especially:  P e s k i n , H. M. "Some P r o b l e m s i n F o r e c a s t i n g Transp o r t a t i o n Demand," S t u d i e s i n T r a v e l Demand, e d . R . E . M i l l e r , ( P r i n c e t o n , N . J . : M a t h e m a t i c a , 1965), pp. 22-32. Q u a n d t , R. E . " I n t r o d u c t i o n " ,  ibid.,  p . 1.  -  (a) attribute  The  which  underlies  the  C o n f e r e n c e on  to  and do  the  points  change.  manner i n w h i c h  the  socio-economic  out  the  need  intent  theory  f o r models  of  U r b a n C o m m o d i t y F l o w was  latter)  the  o f travel.''""'"  The  demand f o r e c a s t i n g  the  the  models.  generation  also  socio-economic  ces  enter  Specification of  Carey to  -  s p e c i f i c a t i o n of  variables (b)  23  the  to  techniques  U.  sensitive  S.-Canadian  develop  data  ( i t apparently  sour-  failed  but;  " I t appeared t h a t the c o l l e c t i o n of data and t h e d e s i g n o f s o p h i s t i c a t e d demand f o r e c a s t i n g m o d e l s w o u l d n o t be sufficient. Unless they were s e n s i t i v e to changing patterns of urban s t r u c t u r e , t h e m o d e l s w o u l d n o t be v a l i d . " - ' 2  cv to  This be  need  with to  research  us  an  b e f o r e we  re-structure -  our  are  current  faced with  c a r e f u l s e t t i n g down o f essential pre-requisite  structural  relationships  Measurement,  that  since  have understood  especially with We  The  statement admits  regard a  approaches to  large  goods  based  adequate on  future  past, to  tends  there  is  a  transportation  movement.  s p e c i f i c a t i o n problem.  functional to  the  the  relationships  will  be  forecasting.  Only  as  (a p r i o r i ) t h e o r y  replace  Q u a n d t , R. E. T h e D e m a n d f o r T r a v e l : Theory and (Lexington, Mass. : D~. C~. H e a t h , 1970) , p . 15.  12 C a r e y , W. N. " G o o d s M o v e m e n t i n C i t i e s T h a t for People", Paper presented at the S i x t h Conference of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Road F e d e r a t i o n , Montreal, October 1970.  Are the  - 24 -  empirical  r e l a t i o n s h i p s based  t o be c o n f i d e n t  on o b s e r v e d  i n , or at least  know,  fact  c a n we  the l i m i t s  begin  t o our fore-  casts . Units The portation is ity  has been  zones  i s ignored,  "that the size  elopment  the t r a f f i c  and t r a v e l  and t h i s  of districts  urban  trans-  zone whose minimum  t h a t o f t h e census t r a c t .  o f these  belief  unit of analysis i n the c l a s s i c a l  study  normally  Of A n a l y s i s  used  demand i s p r o b a b l y  The i n t e r n a l  size  variabil-  has l e d t o a  growing  f o r f o r e c a s t i n g devtoo large  to  detect  13 the  assumed  more, a f t e r  land-use-transportation interactions". the formulation  ed  differences  of  activities  (between  ection  o f the size  ability units  the plans)  may n o t e x i s t  Alternative  which t r i p  "the expect-  i n the spatial aggregate  arrangement 14  scale."  must be c o n s i d e r e d  i n the sel-  and arrangement o f a r e a l u n i t s .  although  generation  patterns  this  The  i s low i f l a r g e  increases  and a t t r a c t i o n  Consequently, by developing micro-scale  at this  pay-offs  to forecast travel  are used,  of alternative plans,  Further-  areal  the precision with  r a t e s may  be  improved models which  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n d e m a n d , we may  expect  estimated. analyze to increase  B o y c e , D. E . , N. D. D a y , C. M c D o n a l d , M e t r o p o l i t a n P l a n Making (Regional Science Research I n s t i t u t e , Monograph S e r i e s N o . 4, P h i l a d e l p h i a , 19 7 0 , p p . 8 5 - 8 7 . Ibid.  - 25 -  both  locational  demand.^ found  precision  and e x p l a i n e d v a r i a t i o n  One o f t h e f e w e m p i r i c a l  tests  of this  i n this hypothesis  that: "The h o u s e h o l d (disaggregate) equation prod u c e d a much l o w e r m a g n i t u d e o f e r r o r when compared t o t h e aggregate p r o c e d u r e s . I t i s recommended t h a t h o u s e h o l d d i s a g g r e g a t e e q u a t i o n s be u s e d i n t r i p g e n e r a t i o n a n a l y s e s - . ... D i s a g g r e g a t e e q u a t i o n s h a v e a m o r e l o g i c a l basis f o r producing t r i p generation results: They r e p r e s e n t t h e t r u e c o r r e l a t i o n a n d v a r i a b i l i t y b e t w e e n t h e v a r i a b l e s . "-^^ It  extends is  s h o u l d be added  through  no u n a n i m i t y  gested tion  other branches  there i s a possible  Aggregation,  this  errors.  t o changes  s c i e n c e , and t h e r e  G r u n f e l d and G r i l i c h e s  sug-  aggrega-  o n t h e g r o u n d s t h a t we d o n o t k n o w  they 1 7  to specify  contend,  micro-equations  f r e q u e n t l y reduces  Edwards and O r c u t t have  by c l a i m i n g t h a t t h e a b i l i t y  respond  aggregation  gain i n information with  enough about m i c r o - b e h a v i o u r  specification  of social  on t h e s u b j e c t .  i n model b u i l d i n g  fectly.  that a dispute over  i n t h e system  perthese  countered  o f aggregate  models t o  i s much w e a k e r  than i n  15 D i c k e y , J . W. , F. H. H o r t o n , E . N. T h o m a s , " A r e a l A g g r e g a t i o n and F o r e c a s t i n g P r e c i s i o n i n Urban T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S t u d i e s " , T i j d s c h r i f t voor Ecohomische eh S o c i a l e G e o g r a f i e , 60, 1 (1969), pp. 60-62. 16 K a s s o f , H. a n d H. D. D e u t s c h m a n . "Trip Generation: A Critical Appraisal." Highway Research BoardsR e c o r d , 297 (1969) p . 3 0 . 17 G r u n f e l d , Y. a n d Z. G r i l i c h e s . "Is Aggregation N e c e s s a r i l y B a d , " R e v i e w . o f E c o n o m i c s a n d S t a t i s t i c s , 42 ( 1 9 6 0 ) , 1-13.  - 26 -  micro-models,  and as a r e s u l t  more d i s a g g r e g a t e d  data are  18 needed  t o improve p o l i c y It  analyze  been cal  justified  planning. aggregate  of activity  the fundamental  problems  encountered  obscure  where these  relationships  model which  cannot account  to estimate  cally, lying cant  there  f o r such  general demand  a need  to change;  a  i s suspect  when  o r goods.  Specific  t o deduce  the  undersignifi-  to empirical analysis.  o f whether people  o r goods movement i s  t h e r e f o r e , an approach t o t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g  f o r t r a n s p o r t i n urban areas  ultimately  agreement on t h e b e h a v i o u r a l to vary  through  u r b a n g o o d s movement  on  periods  f o r an e x p o s i t i o n o f t h e t h e o r y  prior  Irrespective  demand  changes  and  between the  f o r f o r e c a s t i n g over  the generation of travel,  considered,  relationships  future flows o f people  causes o f t r a v e l  methodologi-  transportation research  m i g h t be e x p e c t e d  to  has  problem i s t h a t models based  i s critical  i s a need  i n order  behaviour,  of the general  functional  This  t h a t t h e need t o  i n urban areas,  i n urban  The most g e n e r a l data  thesis  bases o f s p a t i a l  by an examination  variables.  used  models.  i s an assumption o f t h i s  micro-systems  understand  response  factors  space and time.  research w i l l  relies  causing  A review  confirm  this  of  of the  on a this  recent  contention.  E d w a r d s , J . B. a n d G. H. O r c u t t , " S h o u l d A g g r e g a t i o n P r i o r t o E s t i m a t i o n Be t h e R u l e " , R e v i e w O f E c o n o m i c s a n d . S t a t i s t i c s , 51 (1969), 409-420.  - 27 -  CHAPTER I I I  TRUCK  T R I P GENERATION - PREVIOUS RESEARCH  Conceptual Models The the  and Proposed  only really  non-residential  land  Research  concerted effort use t r i p  Strategies toconceptualize  generation problem  has  been by S h u l d i n e r and o t h e r s a t N o r t h w e s t e r n U U n i v e r s i t y . 1 The  details  of their  work need n o t concern  us h e r e  since  they were m a i n l y s t u d y i n g a l l t r i p s  generated by o r a t t r a c t e d  to  Although  commercial  high  and i n d u s t r i a l  correlation  rates,  land.  between persons  t h e r e i s no o b v i o u s  and goods t r i p  functional  more, t h e r e i s n o r m a l l y no s i g n i f i c a n t between t h e d i r e c t i o n patterns  of trip  o f persons  t h e r e may b e generation  relationship. spatial  and goods t r i p s  a  Further-  correlation or  their  ends.  " " " S h u l d i n e r , P. W. e t a l . N o n - R e s i d e n t i a l T r i p G e n e r a t i o n A n a l y s i s (Evanston: Northwestern U n i v e r s i t y Research Report, 1965). , "Land Use, A c t i v i t y , and N o n - R e s i d e n t i a l T r i p G e n e r a t i o n , " Highway R e s e a r c h Board, R e c o r d , 141 (1966), 63-88. , a n d F. E . H o r t o n , Land Use L i n k a g e s Paper p r e s e n t e d t o t h e 0-D C o m m i t t e e , 4 5 t h A n n u a l M e e t i n g o f t h e H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h B o a r d , W a s h i n g t o n , D.C., J a n u a r y 1 9 6 6 . T h o m a s , E . N . , . F . E . H o r t o n , J . W. D i c k e y , F u r t h e r Comments o n t h e A n a l y s i s o f N o n - R e s i d e n t i a l T r i p G e n e r a t i o n (Evanston: N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y Research R e p o r t , Nov. 1966).  - 28 -  Some o f t h e c o n c l u s i o n s western  g r o u p ' s w o r k may  (1)  t o come  from the North-  be summarized as  follows:  2  The s e l e c t i o n o f t r i p a t t r a c t i o n f a c t o r s a p p e a r s t o be b a s e d on t h r e e b r o a d c r i t e r i a : (a) L o g i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n a g i v e n v a r i able, either singly or i n combination with o t h e r v a r i a b l e s , and t h e a t t r a c t i o n o f t r i p s for the p a r t i c u l a r purposes being considered. (b)  The d e g r e e o f a s s o c i a t i o n e v i d e n c e d through s t a t i s t i c a l analysis of a given variable, either singly of i n combination with other variables, with the attraction of trips f o r the purposes o f purpose being c o n s i d e r e d .  (c) The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a t a , i t s a c c u r a c y , the expense o f o b t a i n i n g i t . Variable  i . e . :  the  reverse  the  controlling factor  variables; the  order,  selection  statistical  set of variables  priorities  data  availability  i n the,selection association  used.  are usually  of trip  i s used  The l o g i c a l  the. d e p e n d e n t a n d i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s  appears  or  given i n t o be  generation  to select  relationship  from between  may"thus become  (2)  The r e l a t i v e . u t i l i t y o f f l o o r s p a c e , and employment i n . f o r e c a s t i n g s h o u l d f u l l y explored.  (3)  L i n k a g e s between l a n d u s e s s h o u l d be more deeply explored, p a r t i c u l a r l y those that occur on multi-purpose t r i p s and d a i l y trip.sets. A l s o o f importance i s the e f f e c t o f s e p a r a t i o n and c o n t i g u i t y > : 6 f a c t i v i t i e s upon t r i p a t t r a c t i o n s and t r i p l e n g t h s .  (4)  T r i p g e n e r a t i o n i s a m a n i f e s t a t i o n o f human activity. A high degree of v a r i a b i l i t y i s to be'expected, p a r t i c u l a r y i n those a c t i v i t i e s which l i e outside formal s o c i a l or economic systems. 2  Adapted  tenuous.  sales be more  f r o m S h u l d i n e r , l o c . c i t . , 1965 and 1966.  - 29 -  These stantial system,  conclusions  p a y o f f s from such  the  "logical  for  truck  an a n a l y s i s  that  there might  of a "formal"  as a m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y , relationships"  trip  between  be  sub-  activity  i n identifying  the variables  accounting  generation rates.  Grava's ive  suggest  dissertation  and g e n e r a t i n g f o r c e s  attempted t o i d e n t i f y  of material  "attract-  flow by types o f  3 establishment". the  I t was an e n t i r e l y q u a l i t a t i v e  channels through which  commodities  onment, a n d o f t h e modes o f t r a n s p o r t t i o n e d here because (1) of  the fact  a r e somehow  explicit  different  contributions: and study  "transportation  different  commodities  urban  uti-  areas.  I t r e c o g n i s e d t h e i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e o f a wide,  o f types of firm work,  and commodity  flow.  as he a d m i t t e d , s u f f e r e d  o f any d a t a t o s u p p o r t h i s arguments  goods movement.  interrelationships i n urban  about  from the vehicle  I n f a c t h i s m a i n c o n t r i b u t i o n was a  diagram o f commercial  Metropolitan  envir-  I t i s men-  recognition  marketing channels w i t h i n  Grava's  uncommon  of  related.  I t recognised that  (3)  lack  utilized.  t h a t marketing channels and  (2)  variety  move i n an u r b a n  three important  I t i s the only  requirements"  lize  it.made  description  and m a n u f a c t u r i n g a c t i v i t i e s  i n an u r b a n  area.  planning studies.  Toronto Plan  Review,  Such diagrams Figure  or  flow  and  their  are not  1, f r o m t h e  i s presented here t o  3 G r a v a , S. I n t r a - U r b a n F r e i g h t Movement: Transp o r t a t i o n L i n k a g e s and L o c a t i o n Requirements'. Unpublished Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 6 5 .  FIGURE  INBOUND & OUTBOUND ROADS  1:  PATTERNS OF F R E I G H T LOCAL DELIVERY  MOVEMENT •TYPICAL SPECIFIC COMMODITY MOVEMENTS  RETAIL OUTLETS  EXPRESS TERMINALS ROAD  3  "O'D  s-r  PIGGY BACK TERMINAL CINTER-CITY COMMON i PRIVATE CARRIER)  4>4^-  ^  INTER-CITY PRIVATE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS  ROAD ^  READY-MIX COMPANIES  PRECAST PLANTS  PLANTS WAREHOUSES (BEVERAGES,FOOD, MANUFACTURING, PARTS, ETC.)  o  ROAD CONSTRUCTION SITES  INTER-CITY COMMON CARRIER  TRANSPORT TERMINALS (LINE-HAUL INTERLINE LOCAL PICK-UP LOCAL DELIVERY  LOCAL PICK-L'P AND DELIVERY  SERVICE INDUSTRY (CLEANING, LAUNDRY ETC)  SOURCE:  LOCAL PICK-UP AND DELIVERY  CANADA POST OFFICE GATEWAY  PROCESSING FACILITIES (CANAOA POST OFFICE)  METROPOLITAN TORONTO PLAN R E V I E W , E X I S T I N G F R E I G H T MOVEMENT S Y S T E M S ,  i  LOCAL PICK-UP AND DELIVERY  OCTOBER,  1972.  -  illustrate  this  type  31 -  of abstraction.  preliminary  step  scale  goods movement m o d e l .  to  urban  calibrate  towards  such  laying  a model  I t can be seen  the foundations  that  related  the distribution to trip  of a  However, t h e d a t a  full^ required  are not available.  N o o r t m a n ' s O.E.C.D. p a p e r m e n t i o n s , ly,  as a  channel  generation  rates:  almost i n c i d e n t -  o f a commodity might be 4  " . . . . t h e number o f v e h i c l e movements f o r t h e same q u a n t i t y t o p l a c e s o f s a l e f o r c h a i n stores i s considerably lower than the supply to conventional places o f sale." Noortman d i d n o t e l a b o r a t e concerned with  the general  current trends  i n commercial l o c a t i o n .  to urban problems rising  associated with  economic  quently  taken  activities  i n North  The  I n a study  goods movement i s an e x t e n s i o n  roach  t o urban  lysis  o f people  of wider  fre-  scope  model, Noortman's  most r e c e n t l y proposed  transport planning.  seemed l o g i c a l  that  paper  require deeper a t t e n t i o n .  urban  it  congestion,  decentralization of  - i s more s u b t l e t h a n  America.  mainly  However, h i s approach  goods movement -  the development o f a marketing  would undoubtedly  he was  i m p l i c a t i o n s o f some  shipping costs, the undesirable  certain  than  planning  on t h i s ;  "to.start with  movement t h a t  framework  for  modeling  of the traditional To t h e model's  t h e framework  already  exists",  app-  authors,  f o r t h e anab u t they  went  4  N o o r t m a n , H. J . " I n t e r r e l a t i o n B e t w e e n U r b a n M o v e ment o f Goods a n d P l a n n i n g o f U r b a n A r e a s , " P a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t t h e T e c h n o l o g y A s s e s s m e n t R e v i e w , O.E.C.D., P a r i s , O c t o b e r , 1970. /  a  -  on  to suggest a variety  32  -  of problems  which would  be  peculiar  5 to  t h e goods movement m o d e l .  ceptual might  framework,  have o f t h i s  Chapter  framework  zones dual is  firms  not  as  answered  which would  by  the majority  to  operation  to believe  of these studies needed,  with  t o those asked i n  changes  study  i n goods relationships  i s i t better  activity  or the  to  use  indivi-  This latter question  and  that  articles  available.  a l m o s t no  The  with  t h e r e i s no  titles  shortage  Unfortunately,  are descriptions  these d a t a s h o u l d p l a y  o f w o r k i n g models.  we  Watson.  research strategies  seem t o be  the role  one  con-  questions  specified  ofsanalysis?  F r e n c h and  The  transportation  and  industrial  are s e v e r a l papers  lead  alternative  which  urban  of firms,  and  the units  There  of  are s i m i l a r  on p r e v i o u s l y  o r groups  of commercial firm  2.  t o what e x t e n t are p r e d i c t e d  movement demand b a s e d between  the French-Watson  i s shown i n F i g u r e  I I of the t r a d i t i o n a l  approach:  This,  of the  data  effort being given  i n the construction value of  and  descriptive  F r e n c h , A. a n d P. W a t s o n "Demand F o r e c a s t i n g a n d Development o f Framework f o r A n a l y s i s o f Urban Commodity Flow," P a n e l R e p o r t , Urban Commodity F l o w , Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , S p e c i a l R e p o r t 1 2 0 , W a s h i n g t o n , D. C., 1 9 7 1 , p p . 1 3 5 - 1 4 1 . S e v e r a l p a p e r s i n Urban Commodity F l o w , i b i d . G o s s , D. N. e t a l . U r b a n G o o d s M o v e m e n t D e m a n d . (Columbus, Ohio: B a t t e l l e M e m o r i a l . I n s t i t u t e , 1967). H i l l e , S. J . " U r b a n G o o d s M o v e m e n t R e s e a r c h - A P r o p o s e d A p p r o a c h , " T r a f f i c Q u a r t e r l y , 25j 1 ( J a n u a r y 1 9 7 1 ) , pp. 25-38.  -  Figure  2:  33  Conceptual Modelling, Movement  -  Framework f o r A n a l y z i n g , and F o r e c a s t i n g Urban Goods  Industry network location  Transaction  Flow  Means c h o i c e  \  r Network  —  first-generation second-generation  _  sequential internal  ........  third-generation fully  Source:  French  and  Watson  s  assignment  recycling  iterative  ( 1 9 7 1 ) , p.  138  -  statistics to  been w i d e l y  the f a c i l i t i e s  congestion,  and  -  recognized  the subsequent modelling  identify of  has  34  process,  as an e s s e n t i a l and has  input  been used  to  a v a i l a b l e f o r goods t r a n s p o r t , a r e a s  many a s p e c t s  of transport  incompatible  7 with  an  improved  urban  environment.  Empirical There  a r e a l a r g e n u m b e r of e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s  commercial v e h i c l e a c t i v i t y to  the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between  and  structure, particularly  scale land of  changes uses  this  and,  Studies  i n the density  have had  approach  to a lesser  on  in cities.  Many o f t h e s e  goods movement and the general and  effects  location  extent, Martin's  form large  of the  dominant  Good  examples  intra-urban traffic.  are C h i n i t z ' s study  refer  urban that  of  o f t h e New  industrial  York  region,  geography  of  London.^ Another  group  o f e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s , and by  greatest  i n number, i s t h a t w h i c h  specific  problems  of congestion,  deals high  with  social  placeand  f a r the and  time-  economic  T h e C . A . T . S . how h a s a n o n - g o i n g c o m m i t m e n t t o t h e c o l l e c t i o n and a n a l y s i s o f f r i e g h t t r a f f i c d a t a i n t h e C h i c a g o area;; T h e A t l a s o f F r e i g h t F a c i l i t i e s (19 71) i s t h e f i r s t i n a series of publications. g C h i n i t z , B. F r e i g h t a n d t h e M e t r o p o l i s . (Cambridge: Harvard U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1960). M a r t i n , J . E. Greater-London: An I n d u s t r i a l G e o graphy . (London: B e l l and Sons, 1966).  0  -  35 -  costs  o f s h i p p i n g goods,  blems  i n t h e movement o f goods  of  these  to  problems,  occur  advocate  and a wide  rather  and r a r e l y  i n the first  of distinct  and commercial  narrow probe  range  vehicles.  and t e c h n o l o g i c a l  f o rthe reasons  p l a c e ; these papers  proMost  solutions  why  problems  do n o t c o n c e r n  us  here. The which of  third  group  i s t h e concern  studies which  generation rates  uses  i n terms  ged  by t h e i r  to  ing  r e s e a r c h i s t h e one This a f a i r l y  to explain  commercial  o f those  studies  variations  o f these  entirely  studies  land  land  i n trip  a precise  jud-  distri-  possible which  on t h e l a t t e r .  requires  uses.  s h o u l d be  simultaneously, but the discussion  concentrates almost  group  variation i n  and i n d u s t r i a l  characteristics  i n explaining  small  as g e n e r a t i o n , f o r i t i s f r e q u e n t l y  analyse both  appreciation  thesis.  made b y a n y o f t h e s e  success  as w e l l  follows  from  of certain  contribution  bution  of this  have attempted  trip  The  of empirical  An  understand-  of terminology: Trip  time  leaving  Generation Rate:  a particular  unit,  t h e number o f t r i p s or class  per unit  of units, of land l  use. Trip ation  rate.  Attraction  Every  trip  definition  be a t t r a c t e d  generation  rates  but  a distinction  Rate:  the corrolary  generated  by one a c t i v i t y  by another.  i f only vehicular  of trip  Attraction counts  gener-  must by  rates  equal  are considered,  i s made b e t w e e n t h e t w o .  A trip  generated  -  is  to  ver  deliver  goods  at  the  "consignment".  this  It is  a  expression good, or  i t s early,  argument i n schemes. stores,  with  i s to  a  i s synonomous c o l l e c t i o n or  of  central  site  deli-  assortment and  city  freight  stores  and  to  notof  the  consolidation of  office buildings  consignment s i z e  another.  was  comprehensive, presentation  central  respect  with  Philadelphia  goods movement c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  specialty  primarily  and  favour of  The  attracted  f o r movement b e t w e e n one  Horwood's s t u d y for  a trip  site.  goods d e s t i n e d  able  -  goods e l s e w h e r e ;  Shipment:  of  36  department  were  and  the  analyzed, diurnal  9  variation  in trip  here because of (1) in  two He  Horwood's r e s e a r c h  drew a t t e n t i o n  associated with (2)  greater  i s the  manufactures. central sults  in  large  He  core a  is  to  to  the  seasonal  downtown l a n d  uses,  variations particularly  retailing.  observed  "the  larger  probability  that  i t consumes more o f  This  no  doubt increases  imports which  small  number o f  trucks  p.  to  the  the  city,....the  supply  per  truck  central  its  percentage  come f r o m l o c a l v e n d o r s  average d e l i v e r y  H o r w o o d , E. Aspect of Congestion," 203 (1958). Ibid.,  mentioned  contributions:  goods movement v o l u m e s  those  a  making.  or,  and  own  of re-  conversely,  establishments".^^  M. " C e n t e r C i t y G o o d s M o v e m e n t : An Highway R e s e a r c h B o a r d , B u l l e t i n ,  96.  -  37  -  T h i s was n o t a c t u a l l y with  other  further ting fic  cities,  t e s t e d by c o m p a r i n g P h i l a d e l p h i a  b u t i t seems t o . b e a h y p o t h e s i s  attention i n transportation planning.  worthy o f  I f , by  anticipa-  i n c r e a s e s i n t h e u r b a n e c o n o m i c b a s e , we c a n p r e d i c t t r a f congestion  and i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n we have t h e r u d i m e n t s o f a  long-range planning Reefer's with  specific  general  both.automobile  of cities.  eration  research  t o be a s l i g h t trip  patterns  concerned with  and t r u c k .  The c o n c l u s i o n s  are r a r e l y  tendency  the d i s t r i -  tend  of interest  more p r e c i s e t h a n :  to trip "there  " i t does seem r e a s o n a b l e to rely  more on r a i l  took a  a v a i l a b l e from a  f o r s m a l l e r p l a n t s t o develop  r a t e s " because  l a r g e r p l a n t s would  associated  The s t u d y  a p p r o a c h , and was b a s e d on d a t a  variety  truck  monograph on t h e t r a v e l  l a n d u s e s was m a i n l y  bution of t r i p s , very  tool.  genseems  higher  that the  and w a t e r  shipments".^ R e s e a r c h i n E u r o p e a n d t h e U. K. a p p e a r s t o have p r o d u c e d more s p e c i f i c in  results,  explaining the v a r i a t i o n  at n o n - r e s i d e n t i a l land Williams  i f not greater r e a l  i n commercial v e h i c l e  progress,  traffic  uses.  and L a t c h f o r d p i o n e e r e d  U.K.  research i n  12 the  field.  T h e i r study  of industrial  estates i n northeast  K e e f e r , L. E . Urban T r a v e l P a t t e r n s f o r A i r p o r t s , S h o p p i n g C e n t e r s , and I n d u s t r i a l P l a n t s . (Washington: N a t i o n a l C o o p e r a t i v e Highway R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m R e p o r t No. 24, 1 9 6 6 ) , p. 69. 12 W i l l i a m s , T. E . H. and J . C. R. L a t c h f o r d . " P r e d i c t i o n o f T r a f f i c i n I n d u s t r i a l Areas," T r a f f i c Engineering and C o n t r o l , (Dec. 1965 - A p r i l , 1 9 6 6 ) .  -  England trips;  instead  a l lvehicular floor  space  extremely  high correlation  vehicular  trips  and  to explain  isfactorily Williams  coefficients  and  trips  firms  d i d not  four  industries  sites. were  and  floor  H o w e v e r , t h e r e was  conform  trips  Williams  and  failure  rate  employment a l o n e . series  - t h e number o f  ranges In  separated  on  Latchford  inconclusive industries  based  from seven  a later  but  commercial  of papers firms  This i s to The  space  reason  is  rather  never been  sat-  exception to and  tex-  gives  model i n  cause  predicting  Furthermore, must be  i n each  to  the  regarded  of the four  as  sample  to eleven.  similar  vehicle  between  S i n c e t h e r e were  the u s e f u l n e s s o f the simple l i n e a r  vehicle  Consequently,  success; clothing  t o the model.  a n a l y s e d , a 25%  on  vehicle  with  found  space.  i t s f r e q u e n t use has  Latchford's apparent  tile  were c o r r e l a t e d  at industrial  between  defended.  and  trips  commercial  i n the case o f employment.  for high correlations difficult  distinquish  employment o r f l o o r  expected, at least  doubt  -  did..not, u n f o r t u n a t e l y ,  employment and  be  38  from  type of analysis,  Maltby  automobile t r i p generation 13  for h i s study of results  demonstrate  Latchford's  where:  industrial w h a t we  approach:  plants  i n Sheffield.  expected from W i l l i a m s  a model i n the  Y m a + bx Y = commercial v e h i c l e g e n e r a t e d p e r day X -  Traffic  23  trips  His and  form;  attracted  or  employees  M a l t b y , D. " T r a f f i c a t M a n u f a c t u r i n g P l a n t s " , E n g i n e e r i n g and C o n t r o l , 12, 2 ( J u n e , 1 9 7 0 ) , pp.  72-77.  - 39 -  is  much l e s s s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r e s t i m a t i n g  w o u l d be where  Y = automobile  trips.  truck  trips  Of e i g h t  than i t  equations  with  Y a l t e r n a t i v e l y commercial v e h i c l e  a t t r a c t i o n s and genera-  tions  space  of  and X as employment  firms  the  only  two were  equivalent  as  eight  assessed  f o rvarious  as s i g n i f i c a n t  f o r automobile  trips,  groupings  by Maltby.  only  one was  Of given  insignificant. Certainly  generation sites  trip  rates  over  rate  coefficient for  truck  probably  floorspace.  mentioned  i t focussed  case  trip  industrial  I t has s e v e r a l ad-  attempts  to explain  industrial  sites.  on t h e c o m m e r c i a l  I t vehiand  n o n - l i n e a r i t i e s i n the relationships." "  the linear  1  model, S t a r k i e  on f l o o r s p a c e .  somewhat u n e x p e c t e d , should  Towns s t u d y .  o f 0.496 f o r t r u c k  trips  - i n this  of truck  a n a l y s i s was more c o m p e t e n t l y p r e s e n t e d ;  attempted t o e x p l a i n Using  analysis  v a r i a t i o n between  o f 77 s i t e s ;  statistical  useful  at non-residential  the previously  generation  was a s u r v e y cle;  t h e most  r was S t a r k i e ' s Medway  vantages  it  or floor  trips  found a c o r r e l a t i o n  on employment  The l a t t e r  c o e f f i c i e n t was  f o r S t a r k i e had reasoned  be a b e t t e r  Unfortunately  predictor  trip  a l l 77 p l a n t s )  that  the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s could  that  employment  generation  a p l o t of the data  (for  a n d 0.607  than  at this, stage  w a s n o t made a v a i l a b l e ; i t i s p o s s i b l e have been  influenced  S t a r k i e , D. N. M. T r a f f i c and I n d u s t r y : A o f T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n and S p a t i a l I n t e r a c t i o n . London: School o f Economics and P o l i t i c a l Science, Geographical N o . 3, 1 9 6 7 .  Study London Papers  -  by (27  a  few and  40  extreme values. 19  However, the  high  r e s p e c t i v e l y ) i n d i c a t e t h a t the  overpredict  trip  went u n n o t i c e d transform  -  generation  by  previous  values  coefficients  regression  for small  s t u d i e s , but  both variables to t h e i r  alpha  equations  firms.  This  i t led Starkie  logarithms.  This  fact  to  gave  the  15 following  results:  where:  log  Y =  0.257 +  log  Y =  -1.175 +0.5  Y =  commercial v e h i c l e t r i p s  X =  employment per  X£=  floorspace  &  Not  only  did  reduced.  anything  looks  what appear "economies are  able  are  likely  of  of  One  may  f  per  plant  (sq.  load  r a i s e both  S t a r k i e was  0.775)  plant  correlation  t h e ".alpha  value  generation"  to  of -  the  that  i n the  coef-  signifi"almost  Starkie  gave  apparent larger  v e h i c l e s , and  departments  unable  was  Fleischer that  f a c t o r s of  e s t a b l i s h new  (r = per  double l o g . p a p e r " , b u t  in trip  0.732)  ft. )  plausible explanations  scale  day  (r =  plant  but  &r  g  log X  argue w i t h  b e t t e r on  to increase to  72  transformation  t o be  growth.  gested  per  especially for X  ficients, cantly  the  0.559 l o g X  that  early  t e s t e i t h e r of  firms firms  stages  these  sug-  causes of n o n - l i n e a r i t y .  working,  A  sub-set  and  allied  Ibid.,  of  the  trades"  p.  32.  data  -  plants  the  "engineering,  (37)  - was  metal-  extracted  for  - 41 -  separate  analysis.  The r e a s o n  t h a t much o f t h e v a r i a b i l i t y accounted at  i n trip  f o r by an e x a m i n a t i o n  the manufacturing  the  behind  following  plants".  this  generation  o f the "type This  was t h e s u s p i c i o n  subset  r a t e s c o u l d be  o f work  analysis  undertaken generated  equations:  Y =  21.826 + 0.034  X  (r  0.774)  (r=  0.931)  e log  Y =  0.401 + 0.500 l o g X  Starkie variable, sub-set Again  mainly  high  r value  10000. than  very wide X  etc.)  Q  .  t h e case  o f an a p p a r e n t l y  r a t e s and employment.  can be a t t r i b u t e d  line.  Well 100.  over  half  and p r o c e e d s w i t h f o r observed  good  of  f i t between  Unfortunately, the  from  approximately  i ti s not surprising  generation  firms  decrease  truck trip  generation  a  (nonfengineering,  analysis o f the probable  r e s i d u a l s from t h e o v e r a l l  t o and use o f r a i l  of  rates f o r the low values  a qualitative  The e x p l a n a t i o n he n o r m a l l y  t h a t access  1000  to find  uses  regression  i s differing  labour intensiveness, but also discourses b r i e f l y  fact  this.  t h e f i r m s have employment t o t a l s  Consequently,  range o f t r i p  proof  t o t h e e x i s t e n c e o f some 5 o r  Starkie returns t o the other  reasons  of  t h a t i t was i n s i g n i f i c a n t i n  f i r m s w i t h employment totals' r a n g i n g  less  of  on t h e grounds  we h a v e s e e n generation  to  h a d a l r e a d y r e j e c t e d f l o o r s p a c e as a u s e f u l  a n a l y s e s , b u t he gave no s t a t i s t i c a l  trip  6  g  o r wharf  degrees on t h e  facilities  could  rates.  ^ " I b i d . , p. 34. F l e i s c h e r ' s r e m a r k w a s made i n F l e i s c h e r , A . , "On P r e d i c t i o n and Urban T r a f f i c , " Papers and-Proceedings of the R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e A s s o c a t i o n , 7 (1961), pp. 43-50.  -  The his  analysis  Medway The  second  distribution  various  model  plants,  significance  fortrip  on zonal  t o short  gravity  model  generation rates  counties"  of trips  was  from the  of the gravity  rather  at different  a l lthe available  model.  tests o f  than i n of i t s land  uses.  interaction  averages.. the decrease  have been g e n e r a l l y  goods movement.  formulation  estimated truck  f o rlarger  areal  i n trip-making  unsuccessful  distance  area reasonably well and  formulations  to explain  distance  applied  distribution  and c o n s e q u e n t l y gave no i n d i c a t i o n  Efforts increasing  monograph  1  Towns a r e a as a w h o l e ,  i s a problem with  models based  of Starkie s  analysed the distance-decay i n trip  f r o m t h e Medway  dividual  This  contribution  of the spatial  Towns u s i n g  making  42  Helvig trips  units  such  but "distance^is mot....important  with  when  found: "the  t o the Chicago as  states  i n determing  17 truck  trip  volumes  at the local  Similarly, lication  part  of the gravity  level".  o f Hoel's  model  c o n t r i b u t i o n was an  to inter-zonal  app-  movements o f  trucks  i n t h e Los A n g e l e s a r e a , and he found t h e model t o be 18 largely ineffective. The b a s i c r e a s o n s f o r t h i s a r e  H e l v i g , M. C h i c a g o ' s E x t e r n a l T r u c k Movements. (Chicago: U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o P r e s s , D e p a r t m e n t o f Geoe g r a p h y R e s e a r c h P a p e r No. 9 0 , 1 9 6 4 ) , p p . 1 1 5 - 1 1 6 . 18 H o e l , L . A. A Study o f t h e U t i l i z a t i o n o f Trucks f o r T r a n s p o r t i n Urban A r e a s . U n p u b l i s h e d Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y , 196 3.  - 43 -  that  the total  vehicles these  The  i n urban  costs  costs,  o f owning  t o reduce  probably quite  and therefore  a t shipping  line  haul  part of  and t e r m i n a l  and h a n d l i n g  distance  i n urban  l o w f o r many t r i p s .  length  commercial  but the greater  - wages, equipment,  i n c l u d i n g congestion  therefore  and o p e r a t i n g  areas are high,  are fixed  incentive  tern,  costs  o f commercial  Also  vehicle  areas i s the pat-  trip  is  determined by t h e p a t t e r n  and l o c a t i o n o f t r i p  in  turn  ends i s determined by a  range  the location of trip  o f factors which  points.  making,  ends, and wide  may o r may n o t b e r e l a t e d t o t r u c k  access. Hoel's the  Los Angeles  esting  dissertation, while  p r i m a r i l y concerned  Region Transportation  insight into the influence  Study,  gave  of the vehicle  an  with  inter-  and commodity  19 on  truck  trip  generation  rates.  Hoel's  argument i s as  follows: Assume t h a t (industrial) of  constant  their ber  establishment weight  based  is.known  capacity  destinations.  of trips  t h e w e i g h t o f goods g e n e r a t e d b y and t h a t  i s used  I f a l ltrucks on t h e w e i g h t  to ship  one v e h i c l e  type  t h e s e goods t o  are fully  capacity  each  l o a d e d , t h e num-  o f truck  i s -  W N  w  "  w where:  N W  t  = number o f t r u c k w ., capacity. c  trips c  based  on t r u c k  = t o t a l w e i g h t o f commodity = weight  Hoel,  capacity  ibid.,  of the truck.  pp. 70-73.  weight  - 44 -  Assume t h a t acity,  and the d e n s i t y  number o f t r i p s N  where:  c  d  if  truck d  c  volume  weight  and volume >  will  i s less  is (K  c <  The  of the truck  i s -  capcity  ), f o rN  determine than  capacity  i s given  t o i t s volume  = N  a r e , i n urban capacity.  capacity  , then the weight  where  capacity  o f t h e commodity  commodity  will  by the r a t i o  i n t h e same v a l u e o f N.  the quantity  the c r i t i c a l  full  density  result  o f the truck  to their  of the truck  commodity  loaded below capacity w  capacity  i s d  density  criteria  (W /V  Trucks loaded  capacity  critical  the truck's  Where d  commodity  volume o f t h e shipment  = shipment's  The  weight  on t h e volume  = volume c  o f t h e (packaged)  cap-  W c = c v7 d l ? t c t  V" = t o t a l V  the  based  t y p e ; h a s a maximum v o l u m e  V  = V  of  the truck  density,  determine  shipped;  then the  the quantity.  areas, fairly The d e g r e e  of  infrequently  to which  i s expressed by t h e load  a  truck  factor  or K ) v w  K  =  a  w where:  W  t  = average weight o f shipment of  if  this  number o f t r u c k N = w  o v e r some  period  time. average  trips w — K w  shipment  weight  o v e r t h e same p e r i o d  i s known, t h e n t h e of time i s :  -  where:  N  give  minimum number o f loads  N'  =  a c t u a l number o f average value of  Of  course  the  effect  Hoel this  data  the  regulations those  tors be  on  role  q u a n t i f i e d , we i n the  on  generation  our of  the  to  (v)  to  test  relating  each shipment t o i t s  not  t o use  was  We  may  able  note,  in affecting  capacity: of  strive  however,  trip  and  L.A.R.T.S.  t h a t i t does government  generation  to maximize  i f Hoel's  the  the  load  relationships  estimate  of  the  t r u c k s t e c h n i c a l or  rates faccan  effect  of  regulated,  rates.  other  current stock  change  those  w o u l d h a v e an  ones d i s c u s s e d  improving  be  that v e h i c u l a r technology  might play  few  may  the  requirements  a c t i v i t i e s which  A  allowing for  full  restrictions.  commercial v e h i c l e s ;  trip  trips K^.  possible with  stringent data  he  a test.  changes  to  the  c a p a c i t y , and  trips  s u b s c r i p t s (w)  of volume  noted  to provide  suggest  in  the  model, p a r t i c u l a r l y  vehicle's  -  = w  to  45  s t u d i e s have taken above, but  of knowledge o r  predictive  models of  they  an  have  approach added  seriously  similar  little  considered  truck trip  to ways  generation  20 rates.  An  exception  i s the  input/output  approach  used  B a t e s , M. V. "The T r u c k i n g I n d u s t r y a n d U r b a n Development," Unpublished r e p o r t , (Toronto: Smith Transport, 1968) . E l i o t - H u r s t , M. E . , "An A p p r o a c h t o t h e S t u d y o f N o n - R e s i d e n t i a l L a n d Use T r a f f i c G e n e r a t i o n " , A n n a l s o f t h e A s s o c i a t i o n Of A m e r i c a n G e o g r a p h e r s , 30, 1 ( 1 9 7 0 ) , pp. 153-173. W i l b u r S m i t h and A s s o c i a t e s , M o t o r T r u c k s i n t h e M e t r o p o l i s , (New H a v e n , C o n n . : W i l b u r S m i t h , A u g u s t , 1 9 6 9 ) .  -  Hutchinson  to  combine i n t e r r e g i o n a l commodity f l o w trip  and  the  -  by  truck  at  46  University  modal s p l i t  regional  freight transport  that  method s t i l l  the  ation  and  Waterloo, which  estimates flows.  relies  attraction rates.  survey of  of  on  to  data  is  designed  for Ontario  forecast  with  future  inter-  I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g to  adequate models of  For  the  trip  Waterloo Study,  manufacturing establishments  i n the  note  a  Toronto  generfield region  21 was  conducted  to  produce the  following  equations:  Light Trip Generators (firms producing confect i o n a r i e s , shoes, carpets, c l o t h i n g , commercial printing, small e l e c t r i c a l appliances, communic a t i o n equipment) Y  =  7.231  p Y  +  0.018.X,  r =  0.182  +  0.191.X2  r =  0.205  2  i =6.803  a  2  Medium T r i p G e n e r a t o r s ( f i r m s p r o d u c i n g canned f o o d s , p u l p and p a p e r m i l l s , p a p e r b o x e s and b a g s , h a r d w a r e and c u t l e r y , m a j o r appliances). Y  p  Y  =  10.852 + .  0.024.X  =  10.412 +  0.037.X,  cl  r =0.472 2  1  1  r = 2  0.560  -L  Heavy T r i p G e n e r a t o r s ( f i r m s p r o d u c i n g meat products, bakery products, s o f t drinks, brewery products, newspapers, ready-mix concrete, clay products. log  e  log  Y Y  e where:  p  =  2.701  =  2.375 +  =  truck  =  truck trips industry  a Y Y  P a  +  9.270.log X g  3  0 . 2 6 8 . l o g Xe t r i p s products attracted  r = 2  0.457  r =  0.256  2  ( o r i g i n s ) by  an  (destinations)  industry by  an  21 H u t c h i n s o n , B. G. " F o r e c a s t i n g Inter-Regional C o m m o d i t y F l o w s " , P a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t t h e NATO C o n f e r e n c e o n The A p p l i c a t i o n o f O p e r a t i o n a l Research to Transport Problems, S a n d e f j o r d , N o r w a y , A u g u s t ,1972.  - .47 -  = male m a n u f a c t u r i n g employment i n t h e i n d u s t r y X2. — m a l e o f f i c e X^ = p r i v a t e Only been conducted,  employment i n t h e i n d u s t r y  trucks  a few major  available  urban  to the industry  commodity  two r e c e n t examples  flow  surveys  b e i n g t h o s e i n New  have York  22 City  and Calgary.  than  commodity movements, a n d b o t h were i n v e s t i g a t i o n s  situation to  i nparticular  cities,  support a h y p o t h e s i s o r even  In o t h e r words, veys  like  similar  have n o t been based  necessary the  Both these surveys were o f t r u c k  provements  than data  calibrate  projects  a forecasting  systems  mented.) a r o s e d i r e c t l y  from t h e i r  sur-  This i s not t o say that  o f commodity  ideas f o rconsolidation  model.  structures which are  g e n e r a t e d have n o t a n d may n o t l e a d  i n urban  of a  collected  b e f o r e them, such  on t h e o r e t i c a l  f o rlong-range planning.  data actually  Region's  rather  rather  flow.  t oim-  The T r i - S t a t e ' s  o f shipments  (as y e t u n i m p l e 23 1960's s u r v e y work. A  T r i - S t a t e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C o m m i s s i o n , New Y o r k : " C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f I n t e r n a l Truck F r e i g h t " , (Report 4042-3512), June 1966. "Truck F r e i g h t i n t h e T r i - S t a t e Region", (Report 4095-6053), October 1968. "Truck F r e i g h t A c t i v i t y a t S e l e c t e d T e r m i n a l Areas i n t h e T r i - S t a t e Region", (Report 4102-6591). "Truck F r e i g h t i n t h e T r i - S t a t e Region", (Report 4143-1610), O c t o b e r 1969. "Truck F r e i g h t i n t h e Garment D i s t r i c t " , (Report 4156-1610), December 1969. W o o d , R. T. " M e a s u r i n g U r b a n F r e i g h t State Region", Paper presented a t t h e Technology R e v i e w , O.E.C.D., P a r i s , A p r i l 1 7 , 19 7 0 .  i n the T r i Assessment  T r a n s p o r t a t i o n D e v e l o p m e n t A g e n c y , Urban Goods Movement: C a l g a r y S u r v e y M e t h o d , P h a s e I I , ( M o n t r e a l : T.D.A., t o be published) .  ation  I n t e r v i e w w i t h R o b e r t Wood,. T r i - S t a t e T r a n s p o r t C o m m i s s i o n , J u l y 19 7 2 .  - 48 -  r e a l disadvantage o f surveys such as these i s t h a t  truck  movements which r e c e i v e g r e a t e s t a t t e n t i o n are those o f f o r - h i r e c a r r i e r s , whereas the m a j o r i t y  o f dommercial v e h i c l e  t r i p s are by p r i v a t e o r i n s t i t u t i o n a l c a r r i e r s . f o r t h i s emphasis i s that f o r - h i r e operators  The reason  own the l a r g e s t  urban t r u c k i n g f l e e t s , and consequently the number o f operat o r s p e r t r u c k whose cooperation  i s required i s r e l a t i v e l y  low. In sum, t o t h i s p o i n t , zonal average models have been widely c r i t i c i z e d f o r t h e i r many inadequacies.  A more  p r o m i s i n g approach has been the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f d i s t i n c t c l a s s e s o f n o n - r e s i d e n t i a l a c t i v i t y in- order* t o ^minimize as much as p o s s i b l e v a r i a t i o n s i n t r i p making r a t e s able t o s i t e f u n c t i o n .  Even t h i s leaves  attribut-  a suspiciously large  amount o f unexplained v a r i a t i o n i n the data, and no f i r m base on which to estimate f u t u r e t r i p generation The  rates.  most p r o f i t a b l e f u t u r e d i r e c t i o n s o f t r u c k move-  ment r e s e a r c h have been i n d i r e c t l y suggested by a small group of w r i t e r s , e s p e c i a l l y those whose c o n t r i b u t i o n s have been reviewed i n t h i s chapter.  We may expect to see attempts t o  f o r m a l l y s t r u c t u r e the t h e o r e t i c a l underpinnings o f research and p l a n n i n g  methodologies.  T h i s w i l l probably come about  through a n a l y s i s o f m i c r o - s c a l e  t r a n s p o r t behaviour, ( i n  which the u n i t o f a n a l y s i s i s the i n d i v i d u a l economic u n i t , i . e . the firm) and through t h e t e s t i n g o f hypotheses about the  f a c t o r s assumed t o be c a u s a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the demand  - 49  for  vehicle  tionships variations  movements.  which  may  i n truck  Chapter  improve trip  -  on  IV discusses our  generation  current rates.  a set of  rela-  understanding  of  -  50  -  CHAPTER I V  TOWARDS A M A R K E T I N G MODEL OF TRUCK T R I P  As  a r e s u l t o f the foregoing  transportation research cal  studies  generally,  transport  data  availability  tory  variables  should  selected  established (2)  be a c o n s t r a i n t should  causal  t o t h e demand  and structure  are  used  to forecast normally  theories  (truck)  However,  the explana-  movement i s No  f a c t b y means o f a t t e m p t s  movement t o i n d u s t r i a l  loca-  and models. movement c a n v a r y  o f modal competition.  i n urban areas,  only;  f o r goods movement.  The demand f o r t r u c k  to thelevel  discounted  truck  depend p r i m a r i l y o n a p r e -  The demand f o r v e h i c l e  related  (3) ding  criti-  logic.  ultimately relate vehicle  tion  movement  as i t sdominant c r i t e r i o n .  advantage has been taken o f t h i s to  urban  movement f r o m a zone o r s i t e  availability  data  closely  o f estimating  The s e l e c t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s  volume o f t r u c k  viously  and urban goods  demand: (1)  takes  reviews o f urban  i n p a r t i c u l a r , we c a n i s o l a t e t h e f o l l o w i n g  d e f i c i e n c i e s i n methods  the  GENERATION  despite  i m p o r t a n t nodes on r a i l ,  This  accor-  i s usually  the fact that  cities  water, p i p e l i n e and a i r networks.  - 51 -  (4)  The demand f o r t r u c k  transport, which  study  i s measured by t h e g e n e r a t i o n  lated  t o t h e demand  to  the nature  vehicle Also truck  capacity  i tw i l l  (5) site  rical  Firms  vary  to their  studies  markets.  have s t u d i e d  to market.  especially different  the size types This  detail, of  possible transport  i s dismissed  discusses  that  ordered  empi-  by  identified.  deficienciesi n  First,  the concept  transport" i s discussed.  f o r short  with  other  the nature  distance  of inter-city  demand v a r i e s b e t w e e n d i f f e r e n t Secondly,  but also  the effect of  because o f the almost  it  within-  characteristics,  these  of competition  transport  rates.  to their  to estimate  o f customer have n o t been  f o r truck  of  the effects of variation i n  except  nance o f t r u c k  port  the incidence  generation  o f shipment normally  chapter  reduced  rates.  No u r b a n g o o d s m o v e m e n t  E f f e c t of other  complication  i s observed  that  according  and i n t h e f o l l o w i n g order.  " t h e demand  generation  fortrip  not only  F o r example  such as employment s i z e ,  market c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , distance  trip  chapter  i s significant  ( 2 , above) b u t a l s o  supply.  to increase  i n this  characteristics,  according  transport  tends  be seen  ownership  rates, i s not only r e -  f o r goods movement  of truck  i n this  The  modes o f  total trips,  domibut  truck,trans-  industries.  the possible effects of truck  transport  - 52 -  supply ately to  on t r i p there  deduce  generation  i s no p r e v i o u s  these  generation rates  contributing for  truck  theory  itself  i s described,  i s explored.  will  a  both  u n i f i e d model  analysis c a n be  to truck  reviewed.  This  tigation.  Different  and  truck-  theory  further  rejected  a  of  trip  i s required before  to  speculation  the general  fruitful  demand.  study;  and  of limited  concepts  area o f  from  of  This  discussion structure  The l a r g e  identified this will  are  inves-  physical  as a r e a l t e r n a t i v e  on the e f f e c t s o f channel  and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s  as b e i n g  to the analysis  channels.  on t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  tenets  d i s t r i b u t i o n research  are reviewed,  firm behaviour within  i n one c a s e  be p a r t  at present,  t o be a more  approaches  channels  location  dlstr1butl6n  research  analysis  and p h y s i c a l  proves  that  constructed.  of  quantified  trip  location  to trip  i n the future  movement m o d e l s  structure  cause  capacities  a n d u r b a n goods movement  having  industrial  behaviour  movement  of inter-firm linkages,  o f l o c a t i o n and l i n k a g e  distribution  which  and t h e d i f f e r e n t  be t i e d  may  However,  Fourthly,  relevance  of  of industrial  the analysis  studies.  linkage  findings  from  I t i s concluded  ultimately  subset of l o c a t i o n theory,  in  available  are noted.  the p o s s i b i l i t y  and t h a t  generation  Unfortun-  t o w a r d s k n o w l e d g e o f t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e demand  trips  research,  research  under d i f f e r e n t truck  conditions Next,  are discussed.  e f f e c t s , so a t y p i c a l p a t t e r n  from one m a n u f a c t u r e r  ownership  rates  types  leads and  number o f  cannot  come o v e r  a l l be time  as  -  data  sources  ciently  improve.  strong  the  basis  VI:  this  of  and  the  capable of  the  channel  hypothesis  immediate  of  quantification that  that  generation  d e p e n d i n g on  now  we  studies,  modal  explicitly,  so  consideration  the  split  r o l e of  question  i t i s important should  National  be  part  and  etc.  U.S.A.  data, of  and  the  are  that  increases  trated  l u m b e r and  groups".  of  the  market/  modes o f  not  any be  fully  (role  data  on  in their  the  i n the  future.  factors influenby  truck,  l e a s t f o r the studies  with  of  U.S.  decreases This  group  is into  24  size,  rail,  U.K. Census  spatial  modes.  wood p r o d u c t s  total  model  comprehensive  s i z e and  i n other  sites.  that i t s -  commodities  classification  share of  now  trip  transport  our  c a r r i e d out  r e l a t i o n s h i p between p l a n t  and  enter  realize  i n plant  increases  industrial The  to  associated  and  f o r the  will  ship  Buhl,  market were both  The  vary  their  have other  non-residential  readily available, at  C h u r c h and  found  to  transportation  (1).  rates  institutional  as  other  regional  aggregate decisions  water,  and  Transport  have i g n o r e d ,  g o o d s m o v e m e n t s t u d y w h i c h may  cing  i t forms  i n Chapters V  generation  the  suffi-  d i s t r i b u t i o n ) c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of  goods movement o r i g i n a t i n g a t the  follows trip  Demand f o r T r u c k  Until  Also,  seems  customers.  The  in  hypothesis  study which  between manufacturers in  -  However one  case  i s the  53  extent  in  truck  is  illus-  i n Table  2  "shipper extent  s h i p m e n t s m o v i n g by  of  truck  - 54 -  TABLE 2 HIGHWAY SHADE OF INTER-CITY COMMODITY TRAFFIC, U.S.  TABLE 2 •(!) Highway Share o f T o t a l Tons o f Lumber and Wood P r o d u c t s , U.S.A.: Average Shipment Length Lumber and Wood Product's Group (size of firm - employees)  T r u c k Share o f T o t a l Tons - %  S i z e o f Market (ave. mis from p l a n t ) Truck Total Shipments Shipments  50.8 35.3 16.1  20-99 1 0 0 - k99 500 +•  2lh  232 26h  581 890 1119  Source: U.S. Census o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , 1 9 6 7 , V o l . 3 , Par 1 , Commodity T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Survey.  TABLE 2 ( 2 ) Highway Share o f I n t e r c i t y Shipments by M a n u f a c t u r e r s i n S e l e c t e d S t a t e s and P r o d u c t i o n Areas State  Highway Share  Washington. California Illinois Indiana New York Massachusetts  23-9  U9.1 ( 6 1 . 9 ) * ' 51.7  (5U.0)  56.7 ( 5 5 . 6 ) 52.2 81.1  Production Area Seattle** San F r a n c i s c o Los A n g e l e s Chicago New York Boston  Highway Share  29.7 U6.Q  (6k.3)  U7.5 ( 6 8 . 8 ) 53.0 ( 5 3 . 9 ) 77.8 87.6  * Parentheses i n d i c a t e e x l u s i o n o f p e t r o l e u m and c o a l p r o d u c t s . ** P r o d u c t i o n A r e a s comprise one o r more S.M.S.A.s: Seattle: S e a t t l e - E v e r e t t ; Tacoma. San F r a n c i s c o : San F r a n c i s c o - O a k l a n d ; V a l l e j o - N a p a ; San J o s e . Los A n g e l e s : Los Angeles-Long Beach; Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Grove; San B e r n a d i n o - R i v e r s i d e - O n t a r i o . Chicago: C h i c a g o , 1 1 1 . ; Gary-Hammond-East C h i c a g o ; : i n d . New York: New York, N.Y. Boston: Boston; Worcester; Providence-Pawtucket-Warwick; Brockton; Lawrence-Haverhill; Lowell. Source:  U.S. Census o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , 1 9 6 7 , V o l . 3 , P a r t 2 , Commodity T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Survey  TABLE 2 ( 3 ) Highway Share by D i s t a n c e  and Weight, o f Lumber and Wood  Under 2 0 0 mis  Weight (lbs)  Motor carrier  under 1000  Private truck  200-  Total  399  hoo. 599  Products  600999  i over 1000  mis  mis  mis  mis  63.7  3k.k  98.1  96.1  95.2  92.0  86.1  10009999  26.7  70.1+  97.1  96.9  93.7  92.6  62.6  1000029999  ' 17-7  80.2  97-9  91.3  81.1 .  60.0  9.h  ho.9  3000059999  23.2  70.1  93.3  88. k  78.9  6000089999  7-3  23.7  31.0  h.B  7-0  1.3  0.5  over 90000  9.6  12.0  21.6  9-0  3.7  1.8  l.l  i r c e :  U  - S  Census o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n . 1967,  26.2  V o l . 3 , P a r t 3 , Commodity T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Survey  -  were o b s e r v e d no  as the  f o ra l l other  similarities  there  56 -  groups as w e l l .  o f i n d i v i d u a l data  i s generally  a decrease  sis  f i r m s i z e and market a r e i n c r e a s e s ,  of distinct  types o f industry  i n studies  a l l manufacturers  split  we may n o t e  problem.at  by s t a t e the reason  based  that  (Table  scale  i n this  estimate  share by v a r i o u s  commercial national  functions  truck,  budget  industries.  The d i s c r i m i n a n t  (2) ) . t h e mode  than  (3) ) A have been developed  of either the total  (in ton-miles)  share  less  modes, u s u a l l y p r i v a t e  and r a i l ,  i s also  thesis:  2  Discriminant  alone i s  2  f o rn o t considering  200  (Table  the analy-  i n the- h i g h w a y  60,000 l b sm o v i n g  a r e by t r u c k ,  truck  This  almost a l l t h e shipments under miles  by  on p r o d u c t  a n d S.M.S.A.  the intra-urban  although  share a r e s i m i l a r  suggests  observed  were  the rate of  o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n demand.  borne o u t by t h e d i f f e r e n c e s  Finally  This  shipped  neither  decrease n o r t h e highway t r a n s p o r t  justified  of  between groups:  i nquantity  between d i f f e r e n t i n d u s t r i e s .  However, t h e r e  which  truck, regional or  or their  incidence  approach  finds that  i n various linear  C h u r c h , D. E . " I m p a c t o f S i z e a n d D i s t a n c e o n I n t e r c i t y Highway Share o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t s , " H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h B o a r d , R e c o r d , 175 ( 1 9 6 7 ) , 1-8. B u h l , W. F . " I n t e r c i t y H i g h w a y T r a n s p o r t S h a r e Tends t o V a r y I n v e r s e l y W i t h S i z e o f P l a n t , " i b i d . , p p . 9-14. 2 M i k l i u s , W. " E s t i m a t i n g F r e i g h t T r a f f i c o f Competing T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Modes: An A p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e L i n e a r D i s c r i m i n a n t F u n c t i o n , " Land Economics, 45, 2 (1969), pp. 267-273. B a y l i s s , B. T. a n d S. L . E d w a r d s . Industrial Demand f o r T r a n s p o r t . ( L o n d o n : H.M.S.O., 1 9 7 0 ) p p . 1 4 4 - 1 5 7 . See a l s o : W a r n e r , S.L. S t o c h a s t i c C h o i c e o f Modes i n U r b a n  - 57 -  c o m b i n a t i o n o f measurements c h a r a c t e r i z i n g best As  discriminates  m i g h t be e x p e c t e d ,  the  determined  simultaneously with The  used  term  fic  reference  its  true  tial  subject  generation  derived  demand  dence  this  national  has been  from economic  quantities  o f some  speci-  the restraints  i s i tvaries  Bayliss  views  In  as a  f i n a n c i a l resource".^  but this thesis  "poten-  imposed Truck  f o r commercial  i tp u r e l y  as  i n accordance with  transported.  There  the  i s evi-  assumption, a t l e a s t  found  theory.  o f commodities  d e m a n d may b e d e f i n e d  i s a reasonable  scale.  frequently  a c t u a l l y consumed w i t h o u t  f o r t h e commodity b e i n g that  i s  o r other monetary v a r i a b l e s .  sense,  - that  a t the  choice.  i s o n e m e a s u r e o f t h e demand  transport,  demand  modal  to actualizing within  vehicle  the  services  the availability  trip  indicates  to price  economic  since,  shipment s i z e  i n a sense divorced  as used h e r e  transportation  i s normally  "demand" f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  i n this thesis  "Demand"  by  the weight o f shipment  l e v e l of decision-making,  which  transportation.  most s i g n i f i c a n t independent v a r i a b l e  firm's  or  b e t w e e n two modes o f  shipments  on  a significant positive  Travel: A study i n Binary Choice. ,(Evanston: Northwestern U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ) , 1962. Q u a r m b y , D. A. " C h o i c e o f T r a v e l Mode f o r t h e J o u r n e y t o Work", J o u r n a l o f T r a n s p o r t E c o n o m i c s a n d P o l i c y , (1967), pp. 273-314. 3 P u t m a n , S. H. "An I n t e g r a t e d S y s t e m o f M o d e l s f o r t h e A n a l y s i s o f Urban Transport I n t e r f a c e s " , Trans p o r t a t io n J o u r n a l , 10, 3 (1971), 39.  -  correlation for it  between i n d u s t r i a l  transport  services  have noted  frequently  loaded  dity  could  flows  vehicle  substitutes  be  that  trucks  However,  at the local  level;  i n urban areas a r e  and an increase  cause an increase  u s e s o f demand  i n load  i n commo-  f a c t o r s and n o t  become more  transportation exist.  substitutes in urban areas,  the intra-urban  estimated  theory  relevant  s c a l e where i t i s t h e most apparent  f o rt r u c k  significant  that  assumption  below capacity,  the inter-urban  are  a n d t h e demand  trips. The  at  production  i n t h e U.K. a n d G e r m a n y . ^  may b e a l e s s r e a s o n a b l e  many o b s e r v e r s  in  58 -  demand f o r t r u c k  Unless we may  that  there  assume  transportation can  f r o m a k n o w l e d g e o f t h e demand f o r  goods  movement. Truck t r i p to  take  load  factors:  constant and  into account  i n only  two v a r i a b l e s  demand  f o rthat  a n a l y s i s would  of vehicles  operations  f o r truck  for  cement  t o be haulage  example.  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f a commo-  at least i n part  commodity.  have  and average  c a n be assumed  a few s p e c i a l i z e d cases:  i s , therefore,  demand  rate  the capacity  some w a s t e d i s p o s a l The  dity  these  generation  There  a function ofthe  i s one circumstance  where  ^ B a y l i s s , B. T. E u r o p e a n T r a n s p o r t , (London: Kenneth Mason, 1965), 18. 5 S e e e s p e c i a l l y : P e r l e , E.D. T h e D e m a n d f o r T r a n s portation: R e g i o n a l and Commodity S t u d i e s i n t h e U n i t e d States. (Chicago: U n i v e r s i t y o f Chicago Press) Department o f G e o g r a p h y R e s e a r c h P a p e r No. 9 5 , 1 9 6 4 .  -  truck  transport  may  not  c o m m o d i t y demand, and mode s u b s t i t u t e s city for  transport,  not  most s h o r t - d i s t a n c e  city and  truck that  mode.  transport  be  that  exist. but  59  almost  This at  totally  i s normally  the  d e m a n d was  Perle  quite  provided  growth i n truck  probably  due  absolute  market growth rates  more t o  Furthermore,  case  found  in  and  indeed  that  inter-  price  elastic,  important.substitute  commodity  transport  and  region,  market share  than prxcxng  other  indicate that  studies, cross  inter-  or  changing commodity c o m p o s i t i o n  Perle's  especially,  to  transport  scale,  highly  an  More d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s , by that  the  intra-urban  movements.  railway .service  responsive  i s where s i g n i f i c a n t  revealed  port  -  was and  consideratxons.'  i n passenger  elasticities  of  transdemand p  are  possibly  Since  no  trucks the we  more s x g n x f x c a n t  transportation  i n the  only  be  An that  the  trucking  concerned with  effectively  c o m m o d i t i e s may  transportation. •Ibid., 6  Ibid.,  This  industry  direct  important, exception  storage of  7  substitutes  elasticities.  urban commodity d i s t r i b u t i o n  market share of can  than dxrect  to be  process  100%)  elasticities.  generalization  substitutes  i s e n c o u r a g e d by  for  (i.e.  approaches  price this  exist  the  for  is  their  economies  of  42-43. 119-120.  g L a v e , L.B. "The D e m a n d f o r I n t e r c i t y P a s s e n g e r Transportation"/Journal o f R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e , 12, 1 (April, 1972), 71-84.  -  scale associated  -  60  with shipping  which w i l l  be  subject  p h y s i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n channel  of  discussed  For we  may  that  the  i s to  say,  inelastic  For  the  increase  elastic.  pure competititon  f r e e m o b i l i t y of  may  lead  any  other  the  elastic  the  inelastic  segment o f  company i s t h e  of providing clusion  down t h e  their  own  i s therefore  company c a n n o t be the  - a small  major p a r t of  from changes i n the transported,  truck the  which  as  transport.  product,  in price the  condition market.  a whole.  than  In  fact  counters Another  the i n d i v i d u a l  open t o n e a r l y The  a l l buyers logical  p r i c e c h a r g e d by  increase  t y p e and  which i n turn  trucking.  Clearly  a weapon t o i n c r e a s e  any  does  approach  increase  individual firm  industry  option  u s e d as  trucking  revenue.  p r i c e c h a r g e d by  that  then,  to p r i c e ;  e x p e n d i t u r e s on  goods t r a n s p o r t  the  a whole  with respect  i s c l o s e r to t h i s  the  curve of  as  f i r m s , a homogeneous  demand c u r v e f o r t h e  factor holding trucking  resources  industry  the  behaviour.  Under c o n d i t i o n s  to a d r a s t i c d e c r e a s e . i n  urban t r u c k i n g  question  company, however, demand i s  - many s m a l l  and  a  c h a p t e r under  p r i c e of  in total  individual trucking  lots,  industry  a decrease i n the  r e s u l t i n an  probably highly  in this  urban t r u c k i n g  e x p e c t demand t o be  not  that  later  truck-load  the  con-  trucking  r e v e n u e , arid  i n revenue w i l l  volume o f commodity  i s l a r g e l y beyond the  come  being control  9 of  the  trucking  industry.  These g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s  about pure competition  can  - 61 -  The  The is  directly  the  supply  vary  is  on t r i p  generation  but  here  i n order  trip  generation  facing  rates.  facing level  serving  their  relative  vary  examined.  e x i s t which  relate  Consequently,  primitive  revenues, and  operating  The d a t a  f i r m i n Greater  customers  Although  changes  Vancouver,  condition  1-4, s h o r t - r u n own t r u c k i n g the cost  to be.fairly  analysed on  a r e based on the case  3 shows t h e i n i t i a l  example a r e b e l i e v e d of  w h i c h a r e now  the e f f e c t s o f supply  the manufacturer's o f demand.  truck  t o demand, e s p e c i a l l y w h e r e demand  to derive  Figure  utilization  o f a homogeneous commodity a r e  a manufacturing  facturer  rates  data on the c o s t s ,  schedule o f a shipper  However  effect of variations i n  no r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e d a t a supply  therefore,  f o r commodities.  of truck  i n number o f t r i p s .  realistic  transport,  i s n o t homogeneous, s i n c e  and i n t e n s i t i e s  transport  measured  transport  I t i s the possible  Unfortunately, truck  Transport  r e l a t e d t o t h e demand  firms.  supply  of Truck  demand f o r u r b a n t r u c k  of truck  capacities among  Supply  o f t h e manu-  variable  fleet,  data  B.C.  used  and a  costs simple  i n this  representative  i n terms  magnitudes, net revenues a r e probably  o b v i o u s l y b e q u a l i f i e d b y o b s e r v i n g t h a t some t r u c k i n g c o m p a n i e s a r e u n u s u a l l y l a r g e , and t h e r e f o r e p r o b a b l y have some d e g r e e o f m a r k e t c o n t r o l , m a n y d o o f f e r d i f f e r e n t i a b l e s e r v i c e s , w h i c h may i n c l u d e s p e c i a l e q u i p m e n t , o r d i r e c t connections with points outside the c i t y . Also, entry into the i n d u s t r y i s n o t f r e e o f c o n s t r a i n t s : i ti s subject to p r o v i n c i a l r e g u l a t i o n and r e q u i r e s a r e a s o n a b l e investment of c a p i t a l , m a t e r i a l s , and labour.  -  62  Fig-  3  Hypothetical  -  Distribution  System  Truck capacity 3 units Demand p e r day: 1 u n i t p e r customer Freight rate: $4.00 p e r u n i t Transportation c o s t : $0.50 p e r m i l e - $1.50 p e r d e l i v e r y D i s t a n c e between a d j a c e n t c u s t o m e r 1 - 7: 1 m i l e . $ Cost Market (customers)  Delivery  Total  8.00 8.00  3. 50 3.50  3. 00 3.00  6.50 6.50  3.00  0.23  1, 2 3, 4, 5  8.00 12 .00  3.50 4.00  3. 00 4.50  6.50 8.50  5.00  0. 33  1-6  1, 2, 4 3, 5, 6  12.00 12 .00  4.00 4.00  4 .50 4.50  8.50 8.50  7.00  0. 41  1-7  1, 2, 4 5, 6 4, 7  12.00 8.00 8.00  4 .00 3. 50 3.50  4.50 3. 00 3. 00  8.50 6.50 6. 50  6.50  0. 30  1, 2, 4 3, 5, 6 7, 8  12.00 12.00 8.00  4.00 4. 00 6.00  4.50 4.50 3. 00  8.50 8.50 9.00  6.00  0.23  1-9  1, 2, 4 3, 5, 6 7, 8, 9  12 .00 12.00 12 .00  4 .00 4. 00 8.50  4.50 4.50 4.50  8.50 8. 50 13.00  6.00  0.20  1 - 9  1, 2, 3 5, 6, 7 4 8, 9  12.00 12. 00 4.00 8.00  4 .00 4.00 3.00 7.00  4.50 4 .50 1.50 3. 00  8.50 8. 50 4.50 10.00  4.50  0.14  1-7 8, 9, 10  28.00 12.00  11.00 7.50  10.50 4.50  21.50 12.00  6.50  0.19  1-4  1, 2 3, 4  1-5  1-8  Or  T r i p s t o Revenue L i n e Haul customers $  Net Revenue /Total Cost Revenue  1-10  -  unrealistically  high.  63  -  In the  urban t r u c k i n g companies are levels  of  l e s s than Net  f o r the  is  only  firm,  but  this  markets. firms  persed other  scale  In r e a l i t y ,  In Figure business  here as  urban  the  the  the  region,  i s an  on  profit  9,  i n more  least  and  observable that  dispersed  i n the  10)  among  larger  some o f  urban  the  dis-  a l l o c a t e d to  spatial at  i t may  trucking  segmented  see  of  market  f o r the  roughly  process  expanding  concentrated  losses  r a t e s may  segmenta-  the i n t e r r e g i o n a l apply  at  the  urban  demand f o r a c o m m o d i t y of  occur.  two  general  These are  i n m a r k e t demand, and an  average  increasing, until (CD) . . T h i s  manufacturing total  an  load  the  i n truck  change i n t r i p  smaller  production,  so  we  the  in on  Figure 3.  XY  trip  demonstrated  m a r k e t demand i n c r e a s e s . firm,  on  f a c t o r s on  increase  step-wise  Figure  affect  expanding market i s  A l o n g XC,  as  the  effects  shown i n  a l t e r n a t i v e representation of  continues  to  i n the  t h e r e f o r e , one  axis).  required  capacity  8,  This  growth  rates of  steadily  rates  most  well.  generation  is  a  would probably  i s readily  increase  (vertical  operating  activity  markets are  (customers  generation  4,' w h i c h  are  supports  3 we  especially,  i s shown f o r an  Serving  i t i s suggested  With  is  market  of markets  trip  cost  most p r o f i t a b l e  trucking firms.  scale;  an  probably  i n .the t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y , a t  areas.  tion  commodity.  the  run  percent.  revenue/total  market not  five  long  ratio  The  vehicles capacity  generation larger  of. t r u c k  might expect  the  step-wise  Figure 4: Impact on Truck Trip Generation Rates of Different Market Densities and Transport Supply  case 2:dispersed points of demand diverted to other trucking companies truck capacity (units)  ^ 7* trips  case 1: one trucking company  |_4  5  6  7  8  9  I - IO  customers served under expanding market  id/ hs  - 65  characteristics for  large  smaller such  a s C may  It  DE).  these  quite was  served  transport.  sudden changes  make e s t i m a t i o n  firms  m i g h t be  t o blur;-;into a s t r a i g h t l i n e  volumes o f commodity  firms,  smaller  -  However,  i n capacity  of trip  for  at  generation  points  rates  of  difficult.  suggested  that  dispersed  points  by d i f f e r e n t t r u c k i n g companies  I f expansions  and c o n t r a c t i o n s  throughout  e x p e c t much w i d e r  fluctuations i n trip  changes occur  o f demand (Figure  4,  i n the manufacturer's  market take place  t h a n where  relationship  the whole urban area, generation  we  may  rates  i n t h e same c o n c e n t r a t i o n  of  demand. Manufacturers vate motor  transport).  t e n c e o f PMT opportunity our  model  increase  dealing  with  market.  with  there  load  an  large  factors."^  plant  Even where  Load  increasingly large incentive  found  that  PMT'(prithe e x i s -  f i r m s i z e and  the  i s supported  f a c t o r s do  output, load  of using  This  tend  that  signifi-  PMT.  trucking In  this  be e c o n o m i e s i n c e n t r a l i z e d s c h e d u l i n g  .". O i , W. Y. Truck Transportation Ch.4.  and A.P. H u r t e r , (Dubuque, Iowa:  con-  the a l t e r n a t i v e -  number o f  to introduce  not  by  to  especially with  f a c t o r s do  i t m i g h t be e x p e c t e d  - i s an may  with  3 a n d 4.  increased  increase,  companies case  f o r high  the option  O i and H u r t e r  associated  i n Figures  centrated cantly  was  have  of  Economics of P r i v a t e W.C. Brown, 1 9 6 5 ) ,  -  shipments. grey  to  haul  of  time.  PMT,  contract  An  trucking.  a  company i s  s p e c i f i e d area  Sometimes c o n t r a c t  use  drivers  i s involved,  a s s o c i a t i o n of but  also  that  fore  be  rather  PMT  pattern  and  in trip  any  It  those  intrinsic  has  transportation  using  been observed  i n urban areas  the  of  transportation, while by  Trip  influenced market  f a c t o r s on  generation by  the  rates  degree of  Figure  general  3,  for  rented only  identical  rates  between  between the  the  identified that at  vehicles, their market  therefore  spatial  product  two  demand f o r  ubiquitous  are  there-  market f o r the  be  the  may  modes.  truck  through the  supply  a price,  is  capacity, f o r the  commo-  expected  concentration  and  to  in  be  the  commodity.  Three important  (1)  the  that  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of  f o r the  this  of  is  demand f o r c o m m o d i t i e s and  load  some s p a t i a l dity.  period  mistaken  for hire carriage  can  of  affected  set  manufacturer's  which  differences  analysis truck  the  generation  p r i m a r i l y a t t r i b u t e d to  than  contracted  r e s u l t i n g i n not  vehicle with  a  PMT.  Differences using  the  a vehicle-use  of  firms  carriage  is  is easily  for a  e s p e c i a l l y i n cases where e x c l u s i v e and  there  this  be  firm,  in  PMT  may  visual  from  and  Normally  independent trucking  a commodity w i t h i n  vehicles  with  -  Between f o r h i r e c a r r i a g e  area of  defined:  66  cause marked  deviations  model:  Vehicle one  f a c t o r s may  of  capacities vary  the  vehicles  had  substantially. a capacity  of  4  If, units  - 67 -  and  the others  market  3 units,  i twould  (1-10) w i t h t h r e e  trips  be p o s s i b l e t o s e r v e  instead of the four  the  actually  taken.. (2) of  Truck t r a n s p o r t a t i o n from  a c o m m o d i t y may  optimizing operated  agency  n o t be c a r r i e d - either  o u t by a  a single  by t h e manufacturer.-  There  a r e two  each customer provides  (b)  t h e m a r k e t c o u l d b e d i v i d e d among  latter one  according  case  transit,  insignificant  cases  this  supply  ( F i g u r e 4, A B ) o r trucking In the  the originating  4,  o f c o m m o d i t i e s may system,  or receiving.  site:  XCE. occur  anywhere i n  that i s at points of In-transit  w i t h i n urban areas,  are extremely  case  although  become  significant:  storage i s  i ti s important  a manufacturer)  either  o r r e c e i v e r may  o f a commodity t o a l l o w shipment  To t h e e x t e n t  to which t h i s  a function of total  Where s t o c k i n g i s l e s s be  alternatives:  some c o m m o d i t i e s o n a r e g i o n a l o r n a t i o n a l s c a l e .  other (in  PMT  and one each f o r customers  as shown i n F i g u r e  Storage  or  market s p e c i a l i z a t i o n .  (3 t r i p s )  physical distribution  shipping,  for  1-7  (3 t r i p s ) , (3)  the  to their  firm  different  f o u r companies might, s e r v e  f o r customers  8, 9, 10  h i s o w n PMT,  supply  centralized,  for-hire  (a)  companies  the point of  occurs, demand  important,  more a f u n c t i o n o f s t o r a g e  treme  ( h y p o t h e t i c a l ) case  ation  rates correspond  directly  stock  up t h e  generation  lots.  rates  and t r u c k c a p a c i t y . trip  space  o f zero  the shipper  i n truck-load  trip  The  generation  available.  storage  space,  to the frequency  rates  will  In the extrip of  gener-  unit  - 68  production  and/or  consumption.  There are then of  truck  In  increasing  -  transportation  three  general  from any one  propensity  cases  i n the study  (manufacturing)  t o g e n e r a t e numbers o f  site.  trips,  they a r e : (1)  A l lt r a n s p o r t a t i o n  owned) o r one t r u c k i n g  with  customers  served  by one (3)  (customer  as  (origin  divided  i n close  amongst t r u c k i n g  proximity  tending  com-  t o be  company. Transportation  provided  by t h e c u s t o m e r s  PMT). Naturally  basic  b y PMT  company.  (2) T r a n s p o r t a t i o n panies,  provided  there  a r e v a r i a t i o n s on these  types of transportation  illustrative  cases  subject  supply,  three  but they w i l l  to modification  serve  i n specific  instances. The r e m a i n d e r o f t h e c h a p t e r first  the bases o f l o c a t i o n theory  intention freight cluded  of identifying  transport that  form of i n d u s t r i a l variables  which  appear  structure ing  of  research.  two  which  parts: the  intra-urban I t i s con-  lies  i n some  Second, the i n explaining  through a discussion  and t h e i n s t i t u t i o n s  commodities.  analysis.  t o be most u s e f u l  age i n t e n s i t y .are e x p o s e d  for  promise a t present  linkage  into  are reviewed with  the consequences  of point-pattern  the greatest  falls  facilitate  of  link-  industrial  the market-  - 69 -  Industrial  Location  and T r a n s p o r t a t i o n  Demand  Clearly  the locations  of points  of  demand a n d s u p p l y  have a strong  influence  on t r i p  tion. of  They w i l l  n o t be t h e s o l e  the probability of a large  and  delivery trips  determining  and consequent  conceptually,  necessarily rather, ated  that  has a c a u s a l  the  indirect vehicle  firm  congestion,  facilities"  here  that  that  He n o t e d  size,  associ-  a central  location. that  f o r LTL t r a n s p o r t ,  costs,  that  and  the  smaller  better  LTL  i t w o u l d be f o r LTL  This  ser-  argued trans-  i s signifi-  Vernon  location also  and s e r v i c e  a r e now a v a i l a b l e o v e r a w i d e r a r e a , a reason  manufacturing  a central  since  contri-  transportation  a n d t h u s demand  fractional transportation  as g r e a t  t o be  and a t t r a c t  labour  i s the case,  d i f f e r e n t from concluding  observes  provide  I f this  "causes"  c a u s e s a demand  lities  taxes,  f o r example.  the firm's  portation,  rates;  a wide v a r i e t y o f f a c t o r s  (LTL movements) and c a n o b t a i n  i n the core.  activity  generation  t o generate  needs t h e f r a c t i o n a l use o f  vice  routings  movements.  space requirements,  "usually  cantly  on t r i p  towards t h e d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n o f urban  traffic  up  I t i s less obvious, at  influence  Vernon discussed  activity:  because  pick  l o c a t i o n o f economic  different propensities  commercial v e h i c l e  buting  factor  c e r t a i n a t t r i b u t e s o f l o c a t i o n appear  with  distribu-  number o f m u l t i p l e  between o r i g i n s and d e s t i n a t i o n s . least  transportation  faci-  and do n o t  for retaining a central  core  -  location. urban in  In  1 1  other  allow  ther  out  borne  location  to  the  LTL  shipments,  increase load  cal  evidence  within costs  of  family tend  units  to  the  areas; form  from  have  to  by  stocks,  city  to  the  the  wholesalers  desire  flexibility capacity  This  that  central  is  shift  but  in  (with  minimize  will  fur-  stocks)  retailers  cause not  demand is  a  a  the an  on use  appa-  shift  derive  to  for  for  a  theory  two  rea-  there  i s only  truck  transportation  influenced  by  transport  of may  weak  empiri-  l o c a t i o n per  transportation  determinant  passenger  with  partially  l o c a t i o n theory  above,  secondly are  even  from  observed  movements)  some  example  as  demand  that  urban in  for  than  activity.  transportation  is difficult  First,  (numbers  An  radial  transportation  sons:  space  greater  the  deliveries. It  of  cost  much  observation  their  a t t r i b u t e s of  activity  insistence of of  a  of  periphery  because  in  spatial  allow  volume  Vernon's  increasing  the  transport  the  urban  increasingly high  truck  in  by  the  and  rent  system  d i s t r i b u t i o n of  attributes  -  words,  transportation  the  70  r'S"" •  activity be  se '  location.  appropriate:  s i m i l a r socio-economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  similar trip  making  residential  ever,  even where o t h e r w i s e  Large tical  V e r n o n , R. "Production and D i s t r i b u t i o n i n t h e M e t r o p o l i s " , A n n a l s o f t h e A m e r i c a n Academy o f Poliand S o c i a l S c i e n c e , 3,4 (1957), 15^29. 29.  are  correspondly  especially i f  their  :• I b i d . ,  locations  profiles,  similar  families  similar. have  How-  markedly  of  - 71 -  different either with  residential  l o c a t i o n s , f o r reasons  by l o c a t i o n / r e n t theory  corrvmon v a r i a b l e s distribution  but  t h e volume o f t r i p - m a k i n g  cate  vehicle  This  tion it  at this  juncture  agglomeration place  location theoretic  theory  theory - we  - industrial  are concerned  appears  traditionally  t o afford greater  and e x p l i c i t l y  the o r i g i n a l  by  r e l a x i n g the assumption the firm  location.  only  that  research  Wood s u g g e s t s  competition  with  (2)  the former. cannot  industrial  embodies  transport  location  t h e maximum p r o f i t  two groups o f  loca-  since costs.  theory location cost  criticism.  o f " e c o n o m i c man"  the varied structure, goals  and p e r f e c t and c o n t r o l s  organization. Transport  W o o d , P.A., (1969), 23-9.  costs  are a factor of declining  "Industrial  be  t o improve  t o a minimum t r a n s p o r t  The p r i n c i p l e s  ignore  industrial  that  branches  opportunities  formulation of industrial  i s equivalent  (1)  2  indi-  l o c a t i o n and  theories?of a r e a l markets  t o t r a n s p o r t demand, b u t o n l y  theory  Area,  i s to  Of t h e two f u n d a m e n t a l  on  of  different  may n o f .  Neo-Weberian a n a l y s i s has attempted  for  occupation) ,  i n t h e f u t u r e c o n t r i b u t e t o models o f commercial  i s not t o say that  related  association  be s i g n i f i c a n t l y  of recent  t r a n s p o r t demand.  point  central  will  i s intended  some o f t h e a s p e c t s  w h i c h may  of  of trips  that  or s t a t i s t i c a l  (income, age f a m i l y s i z e ,  the  All  not explained  Location  and  Linkage",  -  importance vital  i n industrial  several  first  criticism  viewpoints.  and a r e thus  no  longer  always  over  exist.-'-  5  space;  Since  imposed on t h e market area location  In other  equilibrium  words,  local  there  other  problem which takes  h a s r e c e n t l y made t h i s  and  c a n n o t be  monopolies  theoreti-  i s therefore a  limit  firms, the  f i r m s must be t a k e n  the location into  neous d e c i s i o n s o f i n t e r d e p e n d e n t Hopkins  localization,  o f the f i r m by other  decisions o f these  account.  econo-  I s a r d r e d e f i n e d them and d i s -  G r e e n h u t h a s shown t h a t t h e r e  competition  from  agglomeration  between economies o f s c a l e ,  urbanization.^ perfect  has been approached  Weber r e c o g n i z e d  b u t Hoover and l a t e r  tinguished  cally  activity  i n making l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n s . The  mies,  72 -  problem i s a  account  and/or  "firm  into  general  the simulta-  competing  firms.  vs. industry"  distinction: "The c l a s s i c a l p r o c e d u r e b e g i n s w i t h t h e determination of the least cost transportat i o n s i t e and t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f i s o d a panes through t h e surrounding a r e a . The optimum s i t e would d e v i a t e from t h e m i n i mum t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s i t e i f r e l a t i v e labour or agglomeration cost d i f f e r e n t i a l s at other s i t e s were lower than t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t d i f f e r e n t i a l s as s p e c i f i e d  """^Hoover, E.M., L o c a t i o n T h e o r y a n d t h e S h o e a n d Leather I n d u s t r i e s (Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University P r e s s , 1 9 3 7 ) , H a r v a r d E c o n o m i c S t u d i e s No. 5 5 , 89-93. I s a r d , W., M e t h o d s o f R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e (Cambridge, Mass.: M.I.T. P r e s s , 2nd e d . 1 9 7 1 ) , 404-5. G r e e n h u t , M.L.,, M i c r o e c o n o m i c s a n d t h e S p a c e (Chicago: S c o t t F o r e s m a n , 1963) .  1 5  Economy  -  by  the  73  -  location's  isodapane,  Isodapanes, while r e f l e c t i n g transp o r t a t i o n c o s t d i f f e r e n t i a l s between r e g i o n s , a r e n o t s u i t a b l e f o r use as a transportation variable in a regression equation. T h e y a r e s p e c i f i e d by t h e opt i m a l s i t e f o r one p l a n t o f a s p e c i f i e d s i z e , w h i l e the l o c a t i o n model must simultaneously determine the change or l e v e l o f employment o f a l l p l a n t s . . . . ' Webber  summarizes  the  problem  thus:  "Interdependence (or m o n o p o l i s t i c compet i t i o n ) , v a r i a t i o n s of cost with scale, c h a n g e s i n i n p u t mix w i t h s c a l e and l o c a t i o n , and c h a n g e s i n optimum l o c a t i o n w i t h l a t e r a t i o n s i n s c a l e have a l l remained l a r g e l y outside Weberian analysis."17 Alonso, for of  while  i n d i v i d u a l firms scale,  firm's  adds  location  within a, new  urban  theory areas  of  rent  to  and  that  with,the  of  etc.,  dimension  importance  vary  structure  objectives,  dustrial plied  the  observing  demand,  also  noted  optimum  f a c t o r mix,  locations economies  pricing policies, that  neo-classical in-  i s peculiarly unsuitable where the  the  competition  l o c a t i o n problem.-^  transport  cost  the  gradients  when  for  space  Given in  ap-  the  urban  H o p k i n s , F. E . " T r a n s p o r t a t i o n C o s t and Indust r i a l Location: An A n a l y s i s o f t h e H o u s e h o l d F u r n i t u r e Industry", Journal of Regional Science, 12, 2 ( 1 9 7 2 ) , 2 6 1 - 2 7 7 . 1  17 (Cambridge, 18  W e b b e r , M. J . , I m p a c t o f U n c e r t a i n t y Mass.: M.I.T. P r e s s , 1972), 22.  on  Location  A l o n s o , W. L o c a t i o n a n d L a n d U s e (Cambridge, Mass.: University Press 1964) . A l o n s o , W. "A R e f o r m u l a t i o n o f C l a s s i c a l Location T h e o r y and I t s R e l a t i o n t o R e n t T h e o r y " , P a p e r s and Proceedings o f the Regional Science A s s o c i a t i o n , T 9 (1967), 23-44.  Harvard  -  residential Alonso's ever, with and  74  -  l o c a t i o n theory,  i t i s perhaps  hypotheses have not  Sakashita the  has  infinite  both Alonso  culties  of  through  the  pointed  out  heterogeneity  and  Sakashita  making rent use  received  of  and  the of  surprising that  more a t t e n t i o n .  difficulties land  seem t o  as  dealing  economic  appreciate  transport costs  "bid-price curves",  an  How-  the  good,  diffi-  complementary  which are  analogous  19 to  xsodapanes.  location not to  theory  at present our  I t seems, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t f o r which Alonso  transport  i n urban areas  affecting  location;  at  Empirical  evidence  of  the  through  least,  branch  i s most r e s p o n s i b l e  g e n e r a t e much h o p e t h a t  further understanding  this  the  i t will  demand f o r  a n a l y s i s of  of  does  contribute commodity  the  factors  fundamental hypotheses  go  untested.  agglomeration  are  within  urban  may  loosely  be  areas.  (1) ducing  similar  locating  important Two  suggests to plants  closely  r e l a t e d types  L o c a l i z a t i o n economies, or  i n which  complementary products  i n proximity or  clustering of  at  of and  economy  defined:  to  firms  benefit  a common m a r k e t , p o o l o  labour,  t h a t economies  of  pro-  from skilled  o  special services.  S a k a s h i t a , N., " P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n , Demand F u n c t i o n and L o c a t i o n T h e o r y o f t h e F i r m " , P a p e r s and Proceedings o f t h e R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , 20 ( 1 9 6 8 ) , 1 0 9 - 1 2 2 . 20 L o c a l i z a t i o n e c o n o m i e s h a v e b e e n r e f e r r e d t o as quasi-integration, involving sub-contracting, joint research, c l o s e c o o p e r a t i o n i n p r o d u c t i o n , and j o i n t u t i l i z a t i o n of  - 75 -  (2) cluster  together  services  than The  links as  to other  mation the  operation  f o rpast  here  i s that  and p l a n t s  will  F o r example,  appear  but hardly  sites  position  may h o l d  more f l e x i b l e  foroffice  to the plant's Urban  than  move-  transport  t h e y do f o r  of this  argument  intermediate  activities.  Goddard, i n  l o c a t i o n s i n c e n t r a l London, conclusion  pursued  and assumed  a s s o c i a t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t types  of  a need  possibly  because o f "economic inertia  infor-  some  above argument t o i t s l o g i c a l  implied  movements,  and e f f i c i e n t  activites;  the  activity  While  i n t e r a c t i o n between  The r e v e r s e  forretailing  plant's  regarded  movement o f  and i n f o r m a t i o n  study o f o f f i c e  the spatial  be  to i t s location.  his  that  may a l s o  may b e i m p o r t a n t  critical  f o rpeople  true  economies.  e v i d e n c e o f one  the efficient  movement o f c o m m o d i t i e s .  is.probably  localization  as commodity  i n the day-to-day  and other  opportunities  under  firms  range o f urban  and e x i s t i n g l o c a t i o n f o r c e s .  forces  ment, s y s t e m s p r o v i d e  the  advantage o f a wider  activities  and p e o p l e  plant  economies, i n which u n l i k e  those dealt with  a l l o f these  many w i l l .  to take  key point  surrogates  not  Urbanization  f o rphysical proximity,  linkages"  a n d a common d e s x r e  but also  f o rprestige  office  due t o h i s t o r i c a l locations.  x  The  capacity. See: Houssiaux, J . , "Quelques E x p e r i e n c e s R e c e n t e s de Q u e s i - I n t e g r a t i o n , " Revue E c o n o m i q u e , 6 (Nov. 1959), 838-868. 21 Location Regional  Goddard, J . , " M u l t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s o f O f f i c e Patterns i n the C i t y Centre: A London Example", S t u d i e s , 2 (1968), 69-85.  - 76 -  study o f physical activities which and  i s n o t new.  different  used  towards  p r o x i m i t y and - interdependence  types  Ratcliff  observed  of  the extent to  of establishment occurred i n blocks  an i n d e x o f c o n c e n t r a t i o n t o measure t h e location  urban  attraction,  tendency  or "self-affinities",  among  99  establishments relative  o f t h e same t y p e v  R a n n e l l s examined t h e  concentration, dispersion,  and p r o x i m i t y o f  esta-  9o  blishments the  i n the Philadelphia  analysis  of industrial  r e c e n t phenomenom. based see  how h i s f o u r t h  ting  factors,  a n d new c l a s s ,  t o one another,  However,  J  areas  i s a  a typology of linkages  although  i ti s d i f f i c u l t to  transfer  i n t r a n s p o r t c o s t s t o each  adjacent  district.  l i n k a g e s i n urban  Townroe a t t e m p t e d  on agglomeration  savings  business  firm  economies, o r the  as a r e s u l t  are anything other  of  than  locaa  94 special out  type  of localization  the problems,  linkages  economy.  possibilities,  H  Townroe d i d p o i n t  and hopes o f  industrial  research: " R e s e a r c h a t t h e moment c a n h o p e m e r e l y to a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f i n d i v i d u a l cases r a t h e r than a comprehensive conc l u s i o n o r a model t h a t would p r o v i d e  R a t c l i f f , R. U., T h e P r o b l e m o f R e t a i l S i t e Selection.(Ann Arbor, Michigan: Michigan Business Studies, 9, N o . 1 , B u r e a u o f B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f Michigan, 1939). 23  Columbia  Rannels, University  J . , The C o r e o f The C i t y P r e s s , 1956).  (New  York:  ... " T o w n r o e , P.M.; " I n d u s t r i a l L i n k a g e , A g g l o m e r a t i o n , and E x t e r n a l E c o n o m i e s " , J o u r n a l o f t h e Town P l a n n i n g I n s t i t u t e , 56, 1 (Jan., 1970), 18-20.  - 77 -  easy  guidance  to location  policy-making....  ....A p o s s i b l e f u t u r e s o u r c e o f d a t a may b e t h e g o o d s v e h i c l e s u r v e y s o f a r e a transportation studies... ....There a r e a l s o i m p l i c a t i o n s t o be drawn from l i n k a g e p a t t e r n s f o r t r a n s p o r t planning policy. I f t h e form o f linkage i s c h a n g i n g so t h a t l i n k s need n o t be so frequent o r c a n be m a i n t a i n e d w i t h o u t t r a v e l between f i r m s , t h e need f o r good t r a n s p o r t r o u t e s b e t w e e n new l o c a t i o n s a n d m a r k e t s and s u p p l i e r s i s n o t s o i m p o r t a n t . Altern a t i v e l y , i fl i n k s a r e found t o be import a n t i n economic terms, t r a n s p o r t connect i o n s between t h e s e l e c t e d growth p o i n t s a n d e x i s t i n g c e n t r e s may b e d e v e l o p e d a s a d e l i b e r a t e a i dt o growth, rather than p r o v i d i n g t h e s e c o n n e c t i o n s o n l y when e x i s t i n g r o u t e s become so o v e r l o a d e d a s t o f o r c e new c o n s t r u c t i o n . " P a p e r s b y Wood a n d S m i t h d e m o n s t r a t e of  viewpoints  provides tion in  a comprehensive  o f an approach  'social'  linkage  literature  o f types o f linkage,  favour  the  on i n d u s t r i a l  he a l s o that  a chain  Significantly  of production  sub-contracting),  their  ownership background. that  the industrial  methodologically  25  distinct  W o o d , P.A.,  analysis  (assembly)  reply  approach  to their  component,  other recomposition processing,  status, or their convincingly  argues  i s not i n itself  from Weberian a n a l y s i s  loc.ext.  with  enjoy with  t h e s i s , Wood  according  organization  linkage  and c l a s s i f i c a -  r e j e c t s Weberian  f o rthis  Smith's  2 5  Wood n o t o n l y  i s " p r i m a r i l y concerned  mends a c a t e g o r i z a t i o n o f p l a n t s  or  survey  relationships that....plants  organizations".  within  research.  the polarity  since  both  - 78 -  are concerned w i t h t h e e f f e c t o f p h y s i c a l p r o x i m i t y on i n p u t 9  costs.  ft  The problem i s t h e r e f o r e one o f measurement r a t h e r  than method:  Wood c o n s i d e r s l o c a t i o n a l f a c t o r s which a r e  l e s s t a n g i b l e than those  t r a d i t i o n a l l y considered  as v a r i -  a b l e s , but which a r e n o t o f themselves i n t r i n s i c a l l y end  i n t h e i r behaviour and e f f e c t s .  differ-  Instead o f p u r s u i n g  Wood's p o t e n t i a l l y complex f o r m u l a t i o n , Smith.proposes a d e l i n e a t i o n o f the s p a t i a l margins  of p r o f i t a b i l i t y ,  within  which a l l l o c a t i o n s o f f e r some p r o f i t and " b e h a v i o u r a l " o r " s o c i a l " c o n s i d e r a t i o n s may dominate the l o c a t i o n a l d e c i s i o n . Unfortunately,  as T a y l o r p o i n t s o u t , the s p a t i a l margin i s  so. wide t h a t from the p r a c t i c a l , a n a l y t i c a l standpoint  we  are f o r c e d again to s o l v i n g the problem o f b r i d g i n g the gap between theory  (with i t s f a i r l y s i m p l i s t i c s t r u c t u r e ) and 9 7  empirical observation  (with i t s complexity  of f i n d i n g s ) . '  In c o n c l u s i o n to t h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f some aspects o f i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n r e s e a r c h , i t appears t h a t the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f l i n k a g e f a c t o r s w i l l a s s i s t urban goods movement s t u d i e s i f a p a r t i c u l a r type o f l i n k a g e can be i d e n t i f i e d with a corresponding theory,  type o f t r a n s p o r t demand.  l i k e transportation planning,  behavioural  f a c t o r s i n t o account.  Location  i s increasingly taking  Transport costs, f o r  example, are p e r c e i v e d as becoming r e l a t i v e l y l e s s  important  S m i t h , D. M., "On Throwing o u t Weber with the Bathwater: A Note on I n d u s t r i a l L o c a t i o n and Linkage", Area, 1 (1970), 15-18. / &  27 T a y l o r , M.J., " L o c a t i o n D e c i s i o n s o f Small Area, 2 (1970), 51-54.  Firms",  -  in  locational decisions  tures of  and  goals  uncertainty  areas  from  intra-urban  and  nature  most f i r m s .  r i s k , on The  industrial  and  The  varied, struc-  organisations,  are  main short-term  hope f o r  commercial  and  be  found  intensity  t o be of  associated  to  location  and  another of  - could  While implications  pursued and  research  two  sub-models  commodity and be  to  of  commercial  l i n k e d b a s e d on  changes in  linkages.  urban  - one  economic industrial vehicle  empirical  and  rather  Physical Distribution  i t does n o t - y e t  seem p o s s i b l e  for urban transport there  between i n the  demand  from  i s some e v i d e n c e  that  firms  will  have g r e a t e r  following discussion of  w i t h i n which  the  has  behaviour First,  of  a note  firms  to  industrial the  analysis  payoffs.  fields  traditionally  explaining that  reason  industrial  physical distribution,  important.  contri-  evidence.  Structure  theory,  is  built,  probably  Industrial  ture  be  theoretical  linkages  promising  changes  inter-establishment  was  of  more  with  activity  location  effect  l o c a t i o n theory  w o r d s , i f a' c o m p r e h e n s i v e m o d e l o f  than  the  f i r m behaviour,  In other  flows  and  f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t demand a n a l y s i s i s t h a t  location will  the  by  -  industrial  for research..^  butions  in  of  79  this  This strucof  been  section  is  G r e e n h u t , M. L . , A T h e o r y o f t h e F i r m i n E c o n o m i c York: Meredith Corporation, 1970), 7-43. W e b b e r , M. J . , I m p a c t o f U n c e r t a i n t y o h Location (Cambridge, Mass.: M.I.T. P r e s s , 1 9 7 2 ) . .  Space  (New  -  better  and  For  with  model  of  reasons,  we  confidence  variables  and  fit.  requirement  u n l e s s we  logistic  are  theory  or  spatial  be  e x p l a i n e d by  aware of  structure into  However,.against  of  this  we  the  need  on  the  class  the  theorist  truck  trips  these  two  to weigh be  no  the  temporal  o f phenomena w h i c h  c o n s i d e r i n g a wide range of  c o n t e x t , Lowry's d i s t i n c t i o n  develop  complete  which  development that there  restrictions  i s useful:  develop-  c a n n o t hope t o  r e g r e s s i o n models between employment and  any  model  theory  building.  a variety  technological  this  -  more a p p r o p r i a t e l y d e s c r i b e d as  ment r a t h e r t h a n  simple  80  between a  may  variables. theory  In  and  a  is  " o r d i n a r i l y content to s p e c i f y only the conceptual significance of his variables and the g e n e r a l f o r m o f t h e i r f u n c t i o n a l interrelationships. The v i r t u o s i t y o f the t h e o r i s t l i e s i n r i g o r o u s l o g i c a l d e r i v a t i o n o f i n t e r e s t i n g and e m p i r i c a l l y r e l e v a n t p r o p o s i t i o n s from the most p a r s i m o n i o u s s e t o f p o s t u l a t e s . The mod e l b u i l d e r . g . . . .• i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e o r i e s to a concrete case. He i s c o n s t r a i n e d b y c o n s i d e r a tions of cost, of data a v a i l a b i l i t y and accuracy.... His model i s l i k e l y t o r e f l e c t i t s t h e o r e t i c a l o r i g i n s o n l y i n o b l i q u e and a p p r o x i m a t e ways."29 The nomize  the  testing, theory tion  help  i s expected  of  of  description  and  i n the  Journal  role  assumptions of  a  theory,  s p e c i f y the t o be  i s important:  facilitate  The model  L o w r y , I . S . , "A S h o r t the American I n s t i t u t e  most i m p o r t a n t i s that  eco-  model  c o n d i t i o n s under which  valid.  proposed marketing  they  they  the assump-  economic  Course i n Model o f P l a n n e r s , 31  Design", (1965), 160.  -  behaviour ever,  is  i n model  individual to  the  force  strictly  units  required  cription  tion  Th  refinements  of  of in  This as  a  accepted,  opposed and  during  within  are  to  time  less has  channels,  termed des-  questions  etc.,  are frame-  description  allows  s p e c i f i c model of  than  consistent  development  types  of  centralized  element, and  How-  efforts-  conventional  general  theory  and  i s what A r t i e  decentralized  discussing  behaviour  are  practices  consistency  " a l l doubtful  in  the  expecta-  testing.  distribution some b a s i c  channels  terms  may  defined. Industrial  a  theory.  generalizations  firm  of  classification,  Before  be  system  adoption  e  decision-making.  conventional  economy  centrally...within  of  and  a by  i n which  work".-^ broad  the  the  -  rational  description"  evaluations,  decided  in  into  "decentralized  on  r e s u l t of  testing,  them  81  wide a  range  of  commodity  bution  of  market, gration,  factors: or  supply  the and  structure  type  class  the of  can  number  defined of  commodities,  in  buyers the  terms  and  spatial  distri-  demand, d i f f i c u l t i e s  of  entry  and  degree  or  vertical  of  They  have  horizontal the  product  behavioural  and  of  sellers  and  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of  differentiation.  be  into  the  inte-  product  consequences:  30 • A r t i e , R. The S t r u c t u r e o f t h e S t o c k h o l m Economy ( I t h a c a , N.Y.: ' C o r n e l l ' U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1965), 15. 31 These d e f i n i t i o n s are adapted from a v a r i e t y of t e x t s , e s p e c i a l l y R e v z a n , D. A . ',' A G e o g r a p h y o f M a r k e t i n g : I n t e g r a t i v e Statement (Berkeley: University of C a l i f o r n i a , School of Business Administration, 1968).  -  conduct,  the behaviour of f i r m s under  structures,  e s p e c i a l l y the degree  competition, growth tion  of  and  performance,  rate, innovation,  of capacity.  system  The  which  type of  firms  inter-firm  relates to p r o f i t  progressiveness, i n any  one  and  the  industrial  commodities;  industrial  s t r u c t u r e i s synonymous  be  to r e s t r i c t  the  to  the agencies through which u l t i m a t e market  Marketing process ties:  the  although  the time  points large  various  and  with  firms  industrial  of  and  associated  with  utility  commodi-  there  of  over what to  buy  distribution,  the marketing process,  d i s t i n g u i s h between marketing  their  within their  consumption  systems.  one  sets  being  met  Numerous a g e n c i e s  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n companies,  For any  organiza-  s e t of.demands f o r  final  t h e movement o f  exist  of  this  their originating  imagine a  activity  space.  refer  consumption.  Physical  functions  can  retailers,  to f a c i l i t a t e  through time  how.  frequently  One  to descriptions structure w i l l  final  place  o f demand, i s p a r t  at a point  wholesalers,  shipment,  of  commodities.between  structure.  commodities  exist  set  the product i s d i s t r i b u t e d to  when, where and  physical distribution  tional  market  s e t t i n g of p r i c e s , decisions  - and  and  while  term  r e f e r s to a l l the a c t i v i t i e s  a c t of moving  site  f o r the appropriate  former  - the point  of changing  sell  the  activity  s t r u c t u r e i n many t e x t s , a l t h o u g h t h e c o n v e n t i o n  manufacturing activites  its  levels,  utiliza-  place  of  by  and  the market  here w i l l  and  d i f f e r e n t market  comprise  market  or  -  82  of  etc. -  commodities  set of commodities,  alternative distribution  channels.  or  -  - 83 -  The  channel  vities  nels  the institutions  through which the shipment  ficance urban  analogy describes  "flows".  f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n demands a n d t r i p  areas,.the  concepts of i n d u s t r i a l  of distribution  Their  s t r u c t u r e s have  viour  and w i l l  joint  Distribution  several  acti-  In their  signi-  generation  s t r u c t u r e and  i n chan-  c a n be shown t o be i n e x t r i c a b l y l i n k e d .  be a n a l y s e d  producer-consumer  and/or  e f f e c t s on f i r m and p l a n t as  such.  channels are a manifestation  linkages  beha-  a n d may  be a n a l y s e d  of  through  approaches. (1)  existence, derived  A b s t r a c t -channels:  and thereby  s t r u c t u r e and function,:,  from microeconomic  definition  theory.  of distribution  distribution  includes  an e x p l a n a t i o n  may  channel be  The C o n v e r s e and J o n e s  embodies t h i s  those  of  activities  idea:  "marketing  which create  place,  32 time,  and p o s s e s s i o n  have developed theory of  using  marketing  Alderson the  of  conceptual  this  a similar  and  Alderson  frameworks" and t h e bases o f  approach.  functions  Bucklm  B u c k l i n combined a  and t h e theory  typology  of the firm,  b u t dynamic approach by  exchange,  the c r e a t i o n of time  the r o u t i n i z a t i o n of transactions distribution  channels.  and p l a c e  while  showing  r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n c r e a s i n g s p e c i a l i z a t i o n ,  lized and  used  utilities".  centra-  utility,  i n the development  Through flow-charts  o f t h e movement  C o n v e r s e , P. D. a n d F . M. J o n e s . Introduction to Marketing (New Y o r k : Prentice-Hall, 1948),4.  - 84  of  commodities  i n primitive  -  economies and d i f f e r e n t  devel-  o p m e n t s t a g e s o f t h e m a r k e t e c o n o m y , A l d e r s o n was  able to  show t h e r o l e  distribu-  of intermediaries  i n the process  of  33 ting  goods  approach, usefully  from  producer  particularly  t o consumer.  A l d e r s o n ' s , may  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h changes  structures  (2) T h e s t r u c t u r a l  nation of  of distribution  and sequencies  the marketing  functional ations The  agencies  but  their  keting  of every The  structural nent may  i ti s closely  combi-  one o r more linked  with;  the concern of of the distinct  functions  a r e assumed  may  be  operutility.  transitory  t o be i n h e r e n t i n t h e mar-  good.  distinction  and f u n c t i o n a l ,  of the structure perform  o f as t h e  o f t i m e , p l a c e and p o s s e s s i o n  performing these  functions  network  i s defined as:  through which  i s identification  i n the creation  this  approach:  be  f o r goods.  be t h o u g h t  f l o w s move".34  analysis  demand  of agencies  (3) T h e f u n c t i o n a l  i n the future  approach:  may  abstract  i n transportation  and t h e i n t e r r e g i o n a l  "a c h a n n e l  The  between these lies  two  i n the fact  approaches, t h a t one  - an agency o r i n s t i t u t i o n ,  more t h a n one f u n c t i o n .  I t may  compo-  i.e. firm  forward  -  goods  B u c k l i n , L . P., " T h e E c o n o m i c S t r u c t u r e o f C h a n n e l s of D i s t r i b u t i o n , " Marketing: A Maturing D i s c i p l i n e , ed. M.L. B e l l ( C h i c a g o : A m e r i c a n M a r k e t i n g A s s o c i a t i o n , 1960) . A l d e r s o n , W., "Factors Governing t h e Development of Marketing Channels," Marketing Channels f o r Manufactured P r o d u c t s , e d . R. M. C l e w e t t , (Homewood: R. D. I r w i n , 1 9 5 4 ) .  in  V a i l e , R. S., E . T. G r e t h e r , R. C o x , M a r k e t i n g t h e A m e r i c a n E c o n o m y (New Y o r k : R o n a l d P r e s s , 1952) 1 2 1 .  - 85 -  to  ultimate  for  example.  extent  that  activity bine  consumers on both  The two a p p r o a c h e s individual  perform  sites  and w h o l e s a l e  are only  identical  o f commercial and  singular functions.  t h e two a p p r o a c h e s  analysis  a retail  industrial  I t i s u s e f u l t o com-  suggests a t once a concern w i t h  a set of  and  r e l a t i o n s h i p s between those o b j e c t s .  T h u s we  the  s e t as comprising  institutions  commodity moves i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e , as  the functions  attributes of  the  movement o f any commodity a r e c h a n n e l s  payment, and i n f o r m a t i o n . the existence  flows.  Associated  question here,  impor-  between  on h i s a b i l i t y  and c r e d i t which i s  channel.  Other c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f d i s t r i b u t i o n  bearing  with  of ownership,  intervening  may b e p r e d i c a t e d  a c t as a source o f i n f o r m a t i o n i n the  distribution,  These a r e f r e q u e n t l y very  o f the wholesaler  manufacturer and r e t a i l e r  structure  define  and t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s  l e a s t o f which are non-physical  lacking elsewhere  objects  through which the  not  to  Systems  p e r f o r m e d b y t h e members o f t h e set.-^5  There a r e s e v e r a l other  tant:  to the  i n t o t h e systems approach.  those  basis  and f u n c t i o n a r e t h e d i f f e r i n g  channel  degrees o f  a n d p o w e r among t h e c h a n n e l ' s p a r t i c i p a n t s . o f power and r i s k - b e a r i n g i s d i s c u s s e d  riskThe  briefly  not because i t i s e s s e n t i a l t o the development o f the  S t e r n , L.W. a n d J.W. B r o w n , " D i s t r i b u t i o n C h a n n e l s : A S o c i a l System Approach," D i s t r i b u t i o n Channels: Behavioural D i m e n s i o n s , e d . L.W. S t e r n , ( B o s t o n : Houghton M i f f l i n , 1969),6-19.  - 86 -  theory,  but because  prediction patterns, of  of future will  changing  portation channel pant  further  distribution  channel  the  struggle  structures  obviously  patterns  which  o v e r who  price,  has important  i s f o r control over  shall  perform  consequencies  systems  change over  tacit  greater remain  o f market  stable over  time.  Since  6  the  and  distribution  "Essentially  the marketing machinery  channel  the p r o b a b i l i t y that  quantity  implications  functions".  power s t r u c t u r e s  time, while  recognition  partici-  are r e f l e c t e d i n changing  the marketing  o f changing  trans-  t h e whole market place,  i n turn  components o f d i s t r i b u t i o n  and  o f a market  a n d l e v e l s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n demand.  struggle  on  distribution  the development o f d i f f e r e n t i n d u s t r i a l  channel  the  time  of the e f f e c t  i n the market p l a c e " . ^  f o r power p e r v a d e s  outcome through  distribution  structures  of participants to influence  the nature o f the product  the  power  as "the a b i l i t y  and  for  account  Power i n t h e market o r  be d e f i n e d  o r group  especially i n the  g e n e r a t i o n l e v e l s and  have t o take e x p l i c i t  demand.  may  trip  research,  structure  the greater shares  -  One o f  i s that the  and  activity  the cooperation  or functions, the  the channel's  structure  Power i n t h e c h a n n e l  may  will  be t h e  " " " S h e p h e r d , W. G., M a r k e t Power, a n d E c o n o m i c (New Y o r k : Random H o u s e , 1 9 7 0 ) , 3 3 .  Welfare  37  E n g l e , N. H., " T h e S t r u g g l e f o r M a r k e t i n g C o n t r o l , " P r o b l e m s o f S m a l l B u s i n e s s , Monograph-; 1 7 , The I n v e s t i g a t i o n o f C o n c e n t r a t i o n o f E c o n o m i c P o w e r , U. S. T e m p o r a r y N a t i o n a l Economic Commission, (Washington: U. S. G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1941), 159.  - 87 -  result ials, of  o f many  factors:  the f i n a l  The l a s t  i n i t s implications  ownership firm. will  may b e e i t h e r  Those tend  firms  mentioned  There  regard ownership  ownership  the differentiation  sorting  o f t h e b u l k commodity  tory  location.  with  bulk transportation,  this  must be measured  into  transporting  we m e a n t h e  smaller lots  of the product  and a l s o  inven-  out o f those a s s o c i a t e d Against  t h e c o s t s o f storage - t h e c o s t s , and o f t h e commodity a t any  Postponement o f purchase  them.  both i n  h a n d l i n g , and packaging.  f o r e when t h e c o s t s o f o w n i n g of  through  o f a commodity w i t h i n t h e  large quantities  p o i n t i n time.  until  institutions.  t o be g a i n e d  The economies a r i s e  o f owning  liability  i s a device f o r shifting  By d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n  o f , t h e form, and i d e n t i t y  for a  them.  economies  of distribution.  one  as a  Product  and s t o r a g e o f goods  t o use o r r e - s e l l  channel  risks,  interes-  a strength or a l i a b i l i t y  are transportation  terms  mater-  demand.  o f owning goods between i n d i v i d u a l  postponing  raw  i s especially  Postponement o f purchase the r i s k  financing,  f o rtransportation  which  t o postpone  they a r e ready  over  marketing of the product, o r the ownership  the product.  ting  control  occurs there-  the commodities  Under these c o n d i t i o n s ,  chase  will  be p u t o f f u n t i l  might  be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s m a l l s h i p m e n t - s i z e s  exceed  those  actual  time o f use and t h i s  pur-  circumstance  and.frequent  purchases. The is,  changes  converse  o f postponement i s s p e c u l a t i o n :  i n t h e form o f goods and t h e i r  movement t o  that  - 88 -  forward  inventories  channel.  In this  producer on  They a t t e m p t  conditions  study. these are  i nthe  i n the channel  necessary  to offset this (the shipment  between by  taking  a t some p o i n t i n cost  through  of large  f r e q u e n t i n t e r v a l s than would  lots),  pos-  be t h e c a s e  under  o f postponement.38 Specific  different  moment  t h e r i s k s o f ownership  usually  i n transportation  at less  possible  intermediaries  inventories  the channel.  sibly  case  and consumer absorb  the large  savings  at the earliest  cases o f postponement,  power s t r u c t u r e s  will  I t s h o u l d be o b s e r v e d aspects of marketing  relatively  nous.-^ The purpose circumstances  be o b s e r v e d  even w i t h i n  of this  thesis  t h e i r own  and f u n c t i o n  and  i n a  a t t h e moment, h o w e v e r ,  on s t r u c t u r e  under which  later  and d i s t r i b u t i o n channel  undeveloped  whereas t h e l i t e r a t u r e  speculation  case that  research  discipline, i s volumi-  i s not to explain the  one o f another  type o f  industrial  A l d e r s o n , W., " M a r k e t i n g E f f i c i e n c y a n d t h e o f P o s t p o n e m e n t , " C o s t a n d P r o f i t O u t l o o k , 3, 4  J O  Principle (1950) .  B u c k l i n , L.P., A Theory o f D i s t r i b u t i o n Channel Structure (Berkeley: University of C a l i f o r n i a , I n s t i t u t e o f B u s i n e s s a n d E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h , 1 9 6 6 ) , C h . 3. _ , "Postponement, S p e c u l a t i o n , and t h e S t r u c ture o f D i s t r i b u t i o n Channels," Journal o f Marketing Research, 2 (1965), 26-31. 39 The b e h a v i o u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f c h a n n e l p a r t i are analysed i n greater depth i n the f o l l o w i n g : A l d e r s o n , W. M a r k e t i n g B e h a v i o u r a n d E x e c u t i v e A c t i o n ( H o m e w o o d : R. D. I r w i n ) , 1 9 5 7 . __, D y n a m i c M a r k e t i n g B e h a v i o u r ( H o m e w o o d : R. D. I r w i n , 1 9 6 5 ) C h s . 1 0 , 1 2 , 1 3 . M a l l e n , B. E . , " C o n f l i c t a n d C o o p e r a t i o n i n M a r k e t i n g Channels," R e f l e c t i o n s on Progress i n M a r k e t i n g , ed. L.G. S m i t h ( C h i c a g o : A m e r i c a n M a r k e t i n g A s s o c i a t i o n , 1 9 6 4 ) 65-68. cipants  -  or  distribution  concern deduce This  here  -  structure  may  exist.  i s to take structure  and  function  the behaviour of  firms  under  market fect  analysis  shares  of  allocation  are posited  f o r the  i n which  firm  and  systems..  to that  of  a variety  of  i n per-  c o m p e t i t i o n , s m a l l i n m o n o p o l i s t i c c o m p e t i t i o n , moderi n oligopoly,  and  total  i n monopoly, and  The  classification  here:is  shown.in•Fig.  5.  The  two  (a) N o n - i n t e g r a t e d : dent  behaviour  requires derive  tions  to each  a minimum o f  real  within  of  storage  f u n c t i o n onto  2c,  channel  participants  the l a t t e r  2f, an  us  case,  channel  attributes  2g)  It  of  control  rela-  of  In urban  a r e a s , where  the  tends  t o be  exhibiting  channel  will  relative  backward  need.  (Types  2a,  2b,  probably result: retain  the  by  Similarly, 2d)  subsequent  storage function.  f o r e x a m p l e , t h e w h o l e s a l e r may  inte-  the  participant  probably cause  t o assume t h e  speculation w i l l  low  to force  "real"  i s the case  control  to  channel.  the concepts  of  are:  indepen-  participants.  are l i k e l y  time  is  adopted  t o use  earlier  until  integration channel  channels  introduction  commodities  2e,  postponing purchases  source of  the  storage, channels  (Types  type  type of  enables  transporting  forward  this  speculation.  gration  where  this  behaviour  "behavioural" information i n order  channels  the c o s t s of  of  firm  sub-classes of  the channel  Integrated:  postponement and costs  of  examples of  (b)  2a,  the  given  - negligible  accordingly.  the  as  alternative  deduced  to  Rather  structure-behaviour causation i s similar  neoclassical  ate  channel  89  In i n Type  manufacturer's  - 90  Figure  -  Distribution  5  Channels  Non-Integrated  Type 1  P  Channels P  P  W  W I R  I  I  R I  C Integrated  Type 2 (a)  A  p  w  A  (b)  (c)  (d)  (e)  (f)  '(g)  p  P  P  P  p  P  w  w  w  w  w  w  R  R  R  R  R  C  C  C  C  /\  R  R  C  C  P W R C  Channels  V  Vc  = Producer = Wholesaler = Retailer = Consumer ( f i n a l  user)  —Source o f ownership  or c o n t r o l  4-Direction Source:  p a r t l y a d a p t e d f r o m Revzan, D.A. Wholesali n g i n M a r k e t i n g O r g a n i s a t i o n (New Y o r k : . W i l e y , 1961)  - 91 -  business product would  by b e i n g  able  to assure  i n large lots.  To r e a c h  cost the manufacturer  savings  p o s s i b l e by u s i n g  between these bility and  the r e t a i l  substantially  c o s t s and s a v i n g s  open t o the w h o l e s a l e r  of the  market  directly  more t h a n t h e  the wholesaler.  The d i f f e r e n c e  i s a measure o f t h e  flexi-  i n s p e c u l a t i n g on f u t u r e  demand  price. A complicating factor  classification might e x i s t  producers, tionships (type  of ownership,  lessened  i f he h a s no a l t e r n a t i v e  rates  Before  examining  under d i f f e r e n t  concept  of sorting  mentioned as they  between  alternative  distribution  might  be  sources  of  (oligopolistic)  trip  channel  and economic o r d e r help  local  the rela-  above  open t o t h e w h o l e s a l e r  commodity due t o c o l l u s i o n  between  alter  I n t h e example g i v e n  that  The  or collusion  e t c . can s u b s t a n t i a l l y  2a), the f l e x i b i l i t y  simple  integration  w i t h i n channels.  control,  s h o w n i n F i g . 5.  substantially  relatively  i s the degree o f h o r i z o n t a l  retailers,  producers.  i n this  a t any o f t h e l e v e l s  possibilities  the  him of a turnover  generation  structures, the  quantity  (EOQ) a r e  t o i n t e g r a t e some o f t h e p r e v i o u s  discussion. Sorting quantity  refers  and l o c a t i o n  to the changing  of a  i n the physical flow.  commodity's Marketing  a w h o l e c a n be s e e n as t h e m a t c h i n g o f s u p p l y part o f which commodity. tion  i s the offering  a t which  i t takes  place:  and demand,  o f c o r r e c t assortments  S o r t i n g c a n be d e s c r i b e d a c c o r d i n g  as  of the  to the loca-  - 92 -  (a)  (b)  Inventory  sort:  shipments  a t one  Transit  sort:  goods d u r i n g The the be  place  changing site.  the addition  of sort  (a)  according Sorting of  i n the channel  (b)  (d)  goods  t h e d i v i s i o n o f some c o l l e c t i o n  the breaking  after the balancing  supply  purpose.  down o f a l a r g e  into  smaller  lots  (EOQ) i s d e t e r m i n e d  o f two c o s t s :  transportation)  storage.)  The j o i n t  sup-  which  those o f  and c a r r y i n g  e f f e c t s of these  ordering  (inventorying  two c o s t s  by a  and  a r e demon-  by B o w e r s o x , Smykay and L a L o n d e and a r e shown h e r e  F i g . 6.  Action  purpose.  f i t t h e needs o f t h e market.  (including  in  which  of a.set of  f o r some u n i f y i n g  Economic o r d e r q u a n t i t y  strated  sub-collections  the building of a large  o f s i m i l a r goods  better  firm  into  f o r some u n i f y i n g  s i m i l a r goods  Allocation: ply  can  involved:^  the construction  Accumulation: of  Sorting  by  f i t t h e needs o f a d i s t a n t market.  Assorting: several  (c)  out:  i s determined  integration.  to the process  d i f f e r e n t goods  better  or dropping of  shipment.  form and d i r e c t i o n o f channel classified  the composition of  Their  illustration  was d e r i v e d  f r o m Bowman a n d  A l d e r s o n , W., M a r k e t i n g B e h a v i o u r a n d (Homewood: R.'D. I r w i n , 1 9 5 7 ) , 1 9 9 .  Executive  - 93 -  Figure 6  Assumptions: carrying  c o s t s : $ 0 . 2 5 per unit  order costs: $ 20.00per average  order  inventory = 1 / 2 of order quantity  total sales: 5 2 0 0  units per year  Tabular Method For Formulating  EOQ  number of orders 1 (1 ) s i z e o f o r d e r ( u n i t s ) (2)average  i n v e n t o r y ( u ni t s )  (3)carrying (4)order (5)total  costs  costs  5200 2600 $670 $  cost  2  5  10  20  2600  1040  520  260  1300  520  260  1 3 0  325  130  65  32.50  40  100  200  400.00  365  230  265  432.50  2 0  $690  Graphic Method of Applying EOQ  700  dollars  600  500  400  rder c o s t s ventory carrying  300  costs total  200  cost  100  o  units  ' 260  1040  2600  source: B o w e r s o x , S m y k a y , Lalonde. (1968)  5200  id/hs  - 94 -  Fetter.  4 1  An a l t e r n a t i v e method t o t h e t a b u l a r methods  where:  =  —  a = ordering,  channels,  structure  = annual  c  =.inventory,  we  i s useful  etc.  reflect  rate interest costs  constrained  individual  behaviour  of inter-establishment s t r u c t u r e as a  - manufacturers,  with  each other  f i r m behaviour  and r e t a i l e r s  t o t h e shipment o f goods  minute"  be a s s o c i a t e d  social  with  smaller  inventory  with  transport  features place.  f o r example, large  "until  The c o n c e p t o f e c o n o m i c o r d e r balance  whose  i n infrequent  postponement o f purchase  firms  linkages.  retailers,  i n the market  manufacturers;  how  has an e f f e c t  by economic r e l a t i o n s h i p s .  by w h o l e s a l e r s  should  distribu-  that differences i n channel  an i n d u s t r i a l  w i t h i n the system  Speculation, lead  and i n t e n s i t y  - establish linkages  costs  discussion of physical  can conclude  t o view  albeit  The a c t o r s  sales  and v a r i a t i o n s i n channel  upon t h e n a t u r e  system,  transport  s  Summarizing.this  It  graphic  i n Fig. 6 i s the calculation EOQ  tion  and  lots  may from  the last  shipments. quantity.demonstrates costs;  the size  ^ B o w m a n , E . H . a n d R.B. F e t t e r , A n a l y s i s f o r P r o Management (Homewood: R. D. I r w i n , 1 9 6 1 ) , 2 6 9 - 2 7 6 . B o w e r s o x , D. J . , E . W. S m y k a y , a n d B. J . L a L o n d e , P h y s i c a l D i s t r i b u t i o n Management (New Y o r k : MacMillan, 1968), 201-217. duction  -  of  a  shipment  therefore  the  expected  that  to  shipment  size,  generation  and The  truck  which i n turn  attraction rates t y p e and  control  d i r e c t i o n of of  trip  Some o f are  now  discussed  for  the  demand  be,  the  study  for truck  distinct  a  nels.  the  i s ,not  channels  evidence  large  a c t u a l l y u s e d by  commodities  i s an  f o r the  in  the  of  good per  se,  their  trip  shipped. in  the  channel  source  of  introduced  direct implications  Trip  Generation  "the  commodity  channels  goods.  approach"  is classified  as  a  f u n c t i o n a l or s t r u c t u r a l  a very  useful distinction,  on  subject  the  since  must i n e v i t a b l y to  real-world  studies  firms  industries for different  and  the  on  chan-  number o f  understanding of  that  possible  rate variation.  a d d i t i o n a l source of  movement o f  where  u n i t volume  "commodity a p p r o a c h " when a p p l i e d However, the  i t might  sorting activity  texts,  distribution  This  costs.  results in different per  has  movement.  t h e o r e t i c a l research  take  i s adjusted  D i s t r i b u t i o n and  a l t e r n a t i v e to  approaches. all  of  supply,  concepts which have been  In most m a r k e t i n g to  transport  i n t e g r a t i o n ) , another  i n terms of  Physical  pre-determined  through a knowledge of  generation  the  to  l o c a t i o n of  c h a n n e l may  explanation  truck  capacity  distribution (and  a random v a r i a b l e , but  according  analysis of  be  -  i s not  a magnitude which v a r i e s Recalling  95  distribution  descriptive institutions  It is difficult  to  empirical involved  associate  type  i s i t s p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and  -  the  selection  important ture  and  a particular  distribution  source  of variation  in distribution  trip  generation r a t e s i s the  p r o d u c t i o n and  may  be  divided (1)  raw  into  provide  a priori  channels  we  may  industrial  direct  e q u i p m e n t and channels or  and  location  (a) T h e  use  are  products or  empirical  industrial  Elling  goods  trip  the most  gener-  product. open  found  to  that common  goods, a l t h o u g h Diamond, i n a  found  for industrial that  The  t h e . i n d u s t r y and  facfory-distributor-user  circumstances relate  under  to the  which  structure  i t s market:  of wholesaling institutions  i n c r e a s e s as  A l l i n t e r m e d i a r i e s i n the  "wholesalers"; their  machinery,  purpose  the  mar-  industrial  i s to reach  E l l i n g , K. A., I n t r o d u c t i o n t o M o d e r n M a c m i l l a n , 1969), 128-135. * D i a m o n d , W. H., D i s t r i b u t i o n C h a n n e l s t r i a l Goods (Columbus, O h i o : Bureau of Business Ohio State. U n i v e r s i t y , 1963) . (New  goods  goods.  of channel  (Fig. 7).  the other are normally,used  area increases .  channel  s i x main types  channels  supplies,  of  good  the market f o r the manufactured  were p r e v a l e n t . 4 2  one  in  Several  s h i p m e n t t o t h e u s e r was  the  the  for expecting differing  goods p r o d u c e r  study of  struc-  includes, those  for distributing  for a l l industrial  specific  this  more  channel  Initially  consumer  processing.  identify  s e l l i n g and  pattern  used  on  of  A  a c c e s s o r i e s , component p a r t s ,  evidence  r a t e s based  Initially  ket  goods:  materials for further of  and  channel.  role  process.  industrial  Industrial  studies  the  distribution  i n i n s t a l l a t i o n , as  ation  -  of  the  used  96  a  goods  wide  Marketing  York:  f o r IndusResearch,  Figure 7-  Simplified Distribution Channels; Industrial Goods  industrial goods! production  distributor  manufacturer's sales branch  end user  franchisee  - 98 -  market and b r i d g e and  consumers.  ducer be  the communications  distance  per unit  shipped)  truck trip  in  transportation:  to  use r a i l  the  t h e number a n d s i z e i n this  case  transportation. lower of  site  trip  important  average  i s the tendency  a truck traffic  generation  hinterland.  rates.  time  o f end-users.  process  I f i t i s provided r a t e s may  should  The t r i p  according  expect  I f the market f o r  b e c a u s e an i n t e r m e d i a r y per unit  t o who  takes  place  i s not used, be a f u n c t i o n generation provides the  by t h e producer,  occur  If  (manufacturer's  given e a r l i e r ,  and t h e s o r t i n g  i s adjusted  generation  may  be n o n - l i n e a r i n r e l a t i o n  f o r reasons  i s local,  rates  (measured by  i s producer-controlled  number o f t r u c k t r i p s  rate  generation  pro-  r a t e s because o f economies o f s c a l e  beyond  we m a y ,  the production  should  especially  truck trip  commodity  the of  traffic  branch)  even lower  at  generation  intermediary  sales  trip  The e x t e n t o f t h e m a r k e t  to  the  producers  As t h e number o f t r a n s a c t i o n s b e t w e e n  and market i n c r e a s e h i g h e r  expected.  gap between  then  due t o t h e economies  scale in.multiple-deliverysshipmehts.  (b)  Smaller  generation  producers  r a t e s p e r employee  assumption of constant functions. this. than  labour  than  f i r m s may  large firms,  expenditures Large  larger  trip under t h e  j n the production f o r expecting  inventory costs per unit  i n lower  EOQs a n d a n i n c r e a s e i n  on t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p e r u n i t firms tend  firms,  o f reasons  have h i g h e r  resulting  have h i g h e r  coefficients  There are a v a r i e t y  Small  firms.  and w h o l e s a l e r s  to establish  relative  their  own  to  larger  sales  branches  -  or  control  of  the  this  retail  sorting  shipments  firms  can  area)  industries,  highway  f r e q u e n t l y be  the  The  trip  serve  in trips  from  producing  the  specific  as  f o r the  the  local  Small  i n the  export  products  also producing  per  thereby  sites  encourages  even  and  to other  identified  generation rate.  variation to  latter  branches,  outlets  shipping their  t r a n s p o r t but  markets. sales  or wholesale  f u n c t i o n on  allows bulk  -  99  of  local  Large  (from  the  establishment  of  regional  lowering  exhibit their  non-  regional  market,-further  m a r k e t and  urban  o n l y by  for distinct  f i r m s may  much  channel;  site.  not  employee because of  types  pass  greater tendency  perform,  special-  ized functions. These g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a b o u t t r a n s p o r t and behaviour tant  should  not  exceptions.  intervene trip  i n any  be  They  interpreted  behaviour  firm-size/transport  the  dissimilarity  size  but  analysis able  from  correspond  behaviour,  to  characterized  those  retailer-consumer  variation  i n d u s t r y , the  industries  and  are  relationships  i n market-  greater w i l l  be  firms equal  in  Detailed empirical  necessary between  Consumer goods i n Figure  various combinations  for industrial  can  b e f o r e we  are  plant;size,  t r a n s p o r t demand.  shown e a r l i e r  and  impor-  demand e x p l a n a t i o n o f  g r e a t e r the  Consumer Goods:  by  variables  i n commodity produced.  different  (2)  without  i n t r a n s p o r t demand b e t w e e n  to confirm l o g i c a l  marketing  those  The  industry to  different of  being  show t h a t m a r k e t i n g  generation rates.  ing  as  marketing  normally  use  of  5.  channels They  are  producer-wholesaler-  more i n t e r m e d i a r i e s t h a n  goods because o f  the  greater  diversity  -  in  product  and to  s u p p l y and  product  identity  to that  individual).  ducers  who  direct  product  constituted  The  be  that  apply to shipments  territory  at  and  consumer  one  essential  pro-  govern-  were  covered,  the  are  expected  w h e r e t h e m a r k e t was  a substantial  (by  same p r i n c i p l e s  selection  to the  influence  channel The  tends  ling  the product  likely  of  esta-  customers and  the  p a r t of  the  of direct  bear  i n the channel  producer-consumer  of  demand t h r o u g h  if  product  lines  time are  amount o f  channels.  i s significant  subject to rapid  prompt d e l i v e r y  from  producer  the  product  and t h e r e f o r e  associated with  to minimize.the can  selection  of  more p e r i s h a b l e o r  the greater the r i s k  risk  fashion,  changes r e q u i r e d may  initially  consumed  number o f o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  This  use  i t is  demand, where t h e number o f  generation rates.  product,  i n which  4  i t s market  trip  required  stock. 3 A  and  to retailers  in relation  retailer's  markets.  Duncan o b s e r v e d  widespread  large  form  i t i s ultimately  goods c h a n n e l  goods c h a n n e l s .  was  the  generation rates  serve l o c a l  industrial  blished,  from  l o t size  frequently  Where t h e number o f  higher trip  t o be  Many s o r t i n g ,  changes are  i n which  least,  ing  -  demand.  transform a product  produced  100  fragile  ownership.  s t o r a g e and and  the  hand-  encourages  The  the  variability  f o r some p r o d u c t s : changes  in style  t o c o n s u m e r may  and be  D u n c a n , D. J . , " S e l e c t i n g a C h a n n e l o f D i s t r i b u t i o n " , M a r k e t i n g Channels :for M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s , ed. R. M. C l e w e t t (Homewood: R. D. I r w i n , 1 9 5 4 ) , 380.  -  required.  In this  h a v e t o be  minimized.  101  case, t h e  quantities  channel  anticipated,  be  somewhere i n t h e be  channel  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h new  gaining  acceptance'by  this  influence of  processed delivery  very,  loss  no  o p e n t o new add  time  through tions  fast  imply  turer,  The  number o f  introduction  Influence 45-47.  the  of  newer  time,  for direct  an  Barloon  of  tend  to  l i n k a g e s may  be  pro-  requires short  one  of  deli-  method  the Both  i s to  product these  producer-to-user  distinct  to  has  condi-  transportation.  site  (manufac-  level  of  distri-  o f minimum t r a n s a c t i o n s shows  interplant of  value  in  directly  e s t a b l i s h e d market  h a v e assumed o n l y one at'each  may  Closely allied  Furthermore,  distribution.  principle  be  a high predictability  i n an  the  product  industries  and  need  may  firms.  to the  efficient  in  have d i f f i c u l t y  goods whose m a r k e t i n g  wholesaler, etc.)  bution.  i f they  age  the  seasonal,  Ownership r i s k s  place u t i l i t y  the  product  retailer."  or damage.^  S o . f a r we  the  the  firms competing  and  the  supply i s  storage of  occur.  consumer o r  door-to-door and  and  may  t h a t i n urban areas  duce h i g h l y  i n t e r m e d i a r i e s would  i n t e r m e d i a r i e s they  to  noted  required of  products;  distributed i s the  the  number o f  I f e i t h e r e demand., o r  however,future may  -  reduced  i n t e r m e d i a r y between groups  with  how the  of  B a r l o o n , M. J . , " P r e m i u m T r a n s p o r t a t i o n : A New i n S i t e S e l e c t i o n " , H a n d l i n g and S h i p p i n g , (1965) '  - 102 -  manufacturers  and r e t a i l e r s  ( F i g . 8) .  eration  may  i n model  This  rates  will  crease  be h i g h e r  a r i s e i f , and o n l y  towards  a theory (1)  affect trip  f o r truck  f o r commodities,  The s u p p l y  and c o m m e r c i a l  truck  trip  to i n -  customers.  chapter  varies  except where  rates;  the highest  closely  inter-city  demand.  trip  retailers  One e m i n e n t l y  rates,  the transportation.  levels of  trip-  "down-  behaviour of  influences  indus-  t h e volume o f  testable hypothesis channels  i s cause  e s p e c i a l l y i f t h e consumer The i n f l u e n c e  such as p r o d u c t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , r i s k  ^""Three The p r i n c i p l e o f The p r i n c i p l e o f inventory i n the used; The p r i n c i p l e o f g r e a t e r time and  expected  f o r example.  distribution  institutions  generation  c a n be  i s p r i v a t e l y a n d owned b y  d i r e c t producer-consumer d i s t r i b u t i o n  provides  8.  flows.  transport  transport  The p h y s i c a l  tries  higher  are able  i n this  of truck  generation  institutions, (3)  that  (b) i n F i g u r e  of five  o f urban commercial v e h i c l e  making e x i s t where supply channel"  one i n s t e a d  t r i p , gen-  i s concerned. (2)  to  (a) t h a n  have been taken  The demand  t h e demand  transport  steps  Manufacturing  i f , manufacturers  shipment s i z e s ' by s e r v i n g Several  with  iiD  of other  associated  with  factors, product  principles justifying intermediaries:. minimum 'transactions': F i g . 10; massed r e s e r v e s : l e s s goods a r e needed i n c h a n n e l a s a w h o l e when i n t e r m e d i a r i e s a r e proximity: i n t e r m e d i a r i e s g i v e goods place u t i l i t y l o c a t i n g close t o the market.  See: S t a u d t , T.A. a n d D.A. T a y l o r , A M a n a g e r i a l Introduct i o n t o M a r k e t i n g ( E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N. J . : P r e n t i c e - H a l l , 1965) .  - 103 -  - 104  ownership,  local  istics  the product,  of  However, t h e i r  d i s t a n c e to market,  isolation  of  extremely  good d a t a  that physical trip  relative and  study.  a l l be  hypothesis  which  and  of  It i s this i s tested  that  of  statistical  i n the  have to  the  selection latter,  character-  qualitatively.  each w i l l  validation channel  physical  estimated  i s such  effect  the  distribution  generation rates.  tant,  may  interdependence  the  -  await  principle per  and  se  most  following  controls impor-  case  -  105  -  CHAPTER  THE  S U R V E Y METHOD, P I L O T S U R V E Y R E S U L T S , AND  It only the  are  has  there  analysis  b e e n shown  models of of  of  urban  it  and  was  transportation.  deduced t h a t  l o c a t i o n of  the  the  the  effects of  channel  c h a n n e l p a r t i c i p a n t s , so created.  The  of the  of  the  the  used  that  urban  a  in  the  and  generation cause of of  struc-  rates,  and  variations  transport  institutional  in  supply, (and  structure  itself. data  were-read'ilyc.av"a-ilablei-to and  the  a completely  new  data base  f o r the  behaviour  local  lumber, were s e l e c t e d records  generated  goods  variety  d i s t r i b u t i o n channel  the  to  explanatory  discussed  source  not  approach  structure  notably  shipping  wood p r o d u c t s approach  trip  d i s t r i b u t i o n channels  o f wood p r o d u c t s , survey  no  that  i n d i s t r i b u t i o n channel  shipment s i z e ) ,  d i s t r i b u t i o n channel  III)  building  most apparent  Unfortunately, test  not  h a v e on  inventories  I I and  traditional  Chapter IV  p o t e n t i a l were:  consequently of  could  DATA ORGANIZATION  demand, b u t  are  differences  behaviour  trip-making the  transport  themselves  e f f e c t s which  ture  (Chapters  d e f i c i e n c i e s i n the  movement s t u d i e s  A  V  the  i n previous  of  data truck  forty-three f o r two  of  was  marketing  for  analysis.  manufacturers  tests:  movement s t u d i e s  one  of  which  - 106 -  r e l a t e s employment d i r e c t l y t o t r a n s p o r t demand, the o t h e r of an improved v e r s i o n which i n c o r p o r a t e s marketing sical distribution variables. data and survey procedure.  behaviour  This chapter d e s c r i b e s the  Chapter VI t e s t s the u s u a l p l a n t -  s i z e model o f t r i p g e n e r a t i o n * sents the marketing  and phy-  The f o l l o w i n g chapter p r e -  model and d i s c u s s e s the impact o f f i r m  and i n d u s t r y s t r u c t u r e on t r u c k movements. Chapter  V I I I r e v e r s e s the a n a l y s i s and uses the same survey data t o analyze r e t a i l t r i p a t t r a c t i o n The Survey  rates. Procedure  The wood products i n d u s t r y o f Greater Vancouver was designated as the a c t i v i t y system t o be analysed i n a t e s t o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p s h y p o t h e s i z e d i n the p r e v i o u s chapter. importance  T h i s i n d u s t r y was s e l e c t e d because o f i t s b a s i c t o the Greater Vancouver economy and the reason-  a b l e homogeneity o f the p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the products - mainly lumber and plywood - i r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e i r " l o c a t i o n " w i t h i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n The  channel.  complete wood products  a c t i v i t y system com-  p r i s e s a l l those a c t i v i t i e s which produce, buy,  sell,  and consume wood p r o d u c t s .  those commodities produced under Standard 260,  and 270.^  remanufacture,  Wood products i n c l u d e  as a r e s u l t o f a c t i v i t i e s  Industrial Classification  (19 70)  listed  codes 250,  Such an a c t i v i t y system i s a l a r g e complex  See Appendix.  - 107 -  of  hundreds o f firms  and p r o d u c t s  problem i s immediately  apparent.  tory  the vast  data  firms less  reveals  are small, than  include  a very  that that  so d i v e r s e A scan  majority  i s less than  large  t h e few l a r g e  that  tightly is  that  term  o f t h e wood  20 e m p l o y e e s .  As a r e s u l t ,  "wood p r o d u c t s criteria  t h a t wood be a p r i n c i p a l  and  output materials.  was  stratified  correspond  to institutions  the  suggests  furniture  classification  which  comprise  processes were s e l e c t e d  firm's  on p r o c e s s :  set of alternative distribution Mill  detect.  input  the a c t i v i t y  reman-  manufacturing, ideally  a logically  channels  system  mill,  should  struc-  f o r wood  pro-  f o r a n a l y s i s because o f  w i d e r a n g e o f s i z e v a r i a t i o n among f i r m s ,  that the  This  to  system"  component o f t h a t  construction,  and r e t a i l .  ducts.  Anything  f o r t h e i n c l u s i o n o f any f i r m  i n t o sub-systems based  wholesale,  tured  products  the effects of  activity  For these reasons,  ufacturing processes,  direc-  random sample w o u l d be u n l i k e l y t o firms.  the only  sampling  of industrial  numbers o f employees p e r f i r m w o u l d be d i f f i c u l t The  a  the  expectation  v a r i a t i o n s i n p r o d u c t i v i t y w o u l d be l o w , and because o f central role of the m i l l  tion  o f wood i m m e d i a t e l y  i n the production  a f t e r the conversion  and  distribu-  o f timber,  into  lumber and plywood. Forty eight  plywood m i l l s ,  eous m i l l s . plete  three  mills four  The s a w m i l l s  population  of such  were i d e n t i f i e d :  paper m i l l s ,  and e l e v e n  and plywood m i l l s activities  twenty  sawmills,  miscellan-  comprise  i n the Vancouver  t h e comarea;  - 108  the paper  mills  -  and m i s c e l l a n e o u s p l a n t s were i n c l u d e d i n  order  t o e x a m i n e t h e goods movement  range  of firms.  producers tors,  The p a p e r  include  The  of fine  paper  "miscellaneous" mills  o r plywood;  they were s e l e c t e d  of a  wider  t h e two m a j o r  o f t h e r e g i o n and two o f t h e s e v e r a l  i . e . a producer  boxes.  mills  requirements  paper  paper conven-  and a manufacturer  a l l re-manufacture  arbitarily  to include  of lumber  a wide 2  range The  of plant.sizes  size  Figure  trips  surveyed  i s shown i n  we  need  These  movement.'  peculiar  lies,  We who  also  sites but different need to  provides the  demand f o r t h e c o m m o d i t y v a r i e s  are stringent  data requirements,  i n any p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s  Consequently  fically- for this  destinations.  of the channel  a n d how  not available 3  and commercial  of trip-making associated with  at those trips'  transportation,  does have  t o know n o t o n l y t h e number o f  generated by i n d u s t r i a l  know w h e r e c o n t r o l  is  of a l lthe plants  m a r k e t i n g model proposed  the frequency  activities  time.  processes.  9.  data requirements:  also  of mills  and l o c a t i o n  The  truck  and a wide v a r i e t y  and such  o f commercial  raw d a t a h a d t o be c o l l e c t e d  over detail vehicle  speci-  research.  Miscellaneous includes the following a c t i v i t i e s : p o l e and p i l i n g p l a n t , s h i n g l e m i l l , t r e a t i n g and p r e s e r v i n g l u m b e r a n d p l y w o o d , l a m i n a t e d beam p l a n t , c e d a r s i d i n g m i l l , m i l l w o r k p l a n t s ( 3 ) , custom-cut lumber m i l l ( f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n s i t e s o n l y ) , p a l l e t manufacturer, and a manufacturer's sales branch. The l a s t i s n o t a m a n u f a c t u r i n g s i t e , b u t t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f i t s i n c l u s i o n w i l l be a p p r e c i a t e d l a t e r . 3  See  Chapter  III,  which  discussed recent research.  - 110  The  -  types o f d a t a needed  from  each  mill  fall  into  two c a t e g o r i e s : (1) access over  to different  time.  views  Within-site  (2)  of  count  as they  shipping records.  of vehicles  shipments.  The  of data  which  collected,  and  labour-intensive,  selected.  the m i l l s ' t o expose  inter-  obtained  on  such  but this  a method  procedure  f o rr e c o r d i n g  any p o t e n t i a l  sim-  destination  drivers  i s the by  time-consuming  to mill  intolerable.  of mill  i n order  a  inadequate  the  i s extremely  of four mills  undertaken  urban  i s f a r outweighed  and t h e d i s r u p t i o n  survey  of  or  method, a l -  o b v i o u s l y be  generated  method,. a s u r v e y  A pilot f u n c t i o n s , was  be  the former  company o p e r a t i o n s w o u l d p r o b a b l y be  was  shipments  leave the plant,  advantage o f i n t e r v i e w i n g  disadvantages:  alternative  may  Previous surveys  would  are thereby  the  the  by d i r e c t  t h e i n f o r m a t i o n g a i n e d has been o n l y  s i n c e no d a t a  accuracy  drivers  and t r u c k f l o w s have used  though u s u a l l y  here  collected  Truck, movement d a t a , w h i c h  consulting mill  ple  be  of  size,  management.  interviewing  commodity  as employment  t r a n s p o r t modes, and volume  These d a t a must  w i t h company  by e i t h e r  data, such  or  trucking Consequently  shipping records,  of various sizes  t o become f a m i l i a r  with  shipping activities  problems w i t h data d e f i n i t i o n  and  and  and  collection.^  collection  The comments on d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s , d e f i n i t i o n , a n d problems apply e q u a l l y w e l l t o a l l commercial sites.  - I l l  The  pilot  means o f p e r s o n a l to  s u r v e y was  visits  conducted,  of the following  (1)  Number o f e m p l o y e e s  (2)  A count o f i n d i v i d u a l  shipment  therefore,  t o each o f t h e four m i l l s  ascertain the availability  including  -  size,  by  i n order  data:  at the s i t e . shipments over  vehicle load  time,  f a c t o r s , and shipment  destination. With vey  the experience  of the forty-three mills  visits  thus  gained,  was u n d e r t a k e n b y  of this writer to the mills  c o l l e c t e d were t h e n statistical  organized  analysis  could  Results The collection  activity  pilot  Employment  (b)  Vehicle  (c)  Trip  (d)  The p e r i o d be  (a)  Firms  problems w i t h  four  o f time  use a v a r i e t y o f methods "On p a y r o l l "  includes  a real  tion  frequently  revealed  data  items:  movement  recorded.  pay.  t h e summer  computer.  f o rwhich truck  f o r a v a r i e t y o f reasons  during  that  factors  who may b e a b s e n t causes  form so  destinations  "number o f e m p l o y e e s " .  This  data  Survey  of the four mills  load  sur-  personal The  i n t o a manageable  be c a r r i e d o u t by  survey  (a)  should  concerned.  of the P i l o t  and d e f i n i t i o n  a complete  distortion  (holiday)  includes  months.  off-site  to arrive at those  yet s t i l l  o f "employment The o n - p a y r o l l  persons receive size" defini-  employees, e s p e c i a l l y  -  salesmen,  drivers,  head o f f i c e . this it  The  definition  and  112  managerial  lack of  any  survey  unless  otherwise.  "Man-hours w o r k e d " : is  probably  stoppages,  ideal  of material output or productivity.  As  this  and,  i t s value,  firm  size  c h a r a c t e r i z e d by  s u c h i n f o r m a t i o n may  small be  after day  used.  the  but  of  plant  cupation be  tion" .  employment  account of with  (given  measures  used to  analyze  however, records In  widespread  production  that the  constant  an  of  indus-  utility  the  workers;was  the  number o f w o r k e r s on  clerical,  of  and  whereas i n s m a l l p l a n t s  depayroll  e m p l o y e e s on and  holi-  supervisory  number o f man-hours  the  site  required  proportional to  the  size  homogeneous t e c h n o l o g y )  d i s t i n g u i s h maintenance  p e r f o r m e d by  work-  doubted.  repair i s directly  larger plants w i l l  will  for  definition  of  less available.  managerial,  assume  s e r v i c e and the  c o u l d be  However,  I t i n c l u d e s m a i n t e n a n c e w o r k e r s e m p l o y e d on  b e c a u s e i f we for  direct  f i r m s , the  I t refers to  paid;  asks  definition  f o l l o w i n g have been s u b t r a c t e d :  s t i l l  staff.  which  a  using  used.  on-payroll  decreases,  A v e r a g e number o f finition  locate at firms  be  i n conjunction  man-hours w o r k e d a p p e a r t o be try  the  i n that i t takes  shiftchanges,  not  question  usually obtain  who  between  i t should  "employment" w i l l specified  personnel  consistency  implies that  i s apparent that  -  the  as  a distinct  maintenance  employees whose p r i m a r y  task  then oc-  function is  "produc-  -  (b) ascertained of  The l o a d  available  f a c t o r on, e a c h  from s h i p p i n g  s h i p m e n t was. w e l l  113 -  records,  trip  because  could  although  r e c o r d e d no i n f o r m a t i o n  on t h e capacity  of the vehicle  n o t be  was  the size  generally-  associated  with  each  shipment. (c) corded; title -  The d e s t i n a t i o n  i n the case o f o f f i c e  i s taken  wholesalers,  f o r example,  directly  to a  H o w e v e r , t h e w h o l e s a l e r s name w i l l Such  cases were  comparing i n v o i c e s tomer) w i t h  (thefirm's  delivery  slips  h a v i n g made a d e l i v e r y ) . invoice  n u m b e r , so. :by  quantity  shipped  from  ment from t h e d e l i v e r y (d)  monthly  demand p a t t e r n  (the  for billing driver's  Each d e l i v e r y  cross-checking  slip  by  t h e cus-  record  of  records the  i t i s possible  and d e s t i n a t i o n  to find  of ship-  slip.  The p i l o t  o f time h a d t o be  study  showed t h a t  and annual v a r i a t i o n s  studies  over which  t o count v e h i c u l a r  time  i s probably  care-  diurnal,  i n t h e supply and  f o rlumber a r e s u b s t a n t i a l .  generation  units  truck  the invoice  construction  as f a r as p o s s i b l e  record  The whole q u e s t i o n  considered.  seasonal,  checked  possession  appear on t h e  1  invoice.  fully  was n o t a l w a y s r e -  t o t h e goods b u t n o t p h y s i c a l  t h e g o o d s may b e d e l i v e r e d  site.  of trips  Previous  trip  have u s e d t h e d a y o r a t t h e most t h e week  portation  studies.  scheduled  and r o u t i n e  movement.  due t o t h e i r  The u s e o f  use i n passenger  small trans-  However, p a s s e n g e r movement i s l a r g e l y so r e g u l a r i t i e s  can be detected  using  -  time periods  o f one day o r l e s s .  ment i s a p p a r e n t l y least  mely was  random o v e r  the r e s u l t o f such  planation  to-week v a r i a t i o n .  means t h a t  substantial, greater  As w i l l  shipments  stock  towards  Taking  the average  local 15th  mum  situation.  activity  i s a  week-  growing  back  onto  system.  This  and c o n s t r u c t i o n Retailers tend t o sites  towards  t h e week w i l l  i s stressed  short-term  policies  dis-  because  demand - r a t h e r i t  a f f e c t week-to-week  a common c o n d i t i o n  o f sale  This  causes  o f months, thus  o f 45 d a y s ' b e f o r e p a y m e n t f a l l s  expected  due.  by t h e importance o f cash  t o have  variation i n daily  demand f o r t h e p r o d u c t ,  and t h e l a c k  employment, one month was s e l e c t e d  of  variationi n  i s payment by t h e demand t o b e allowing I n an  flow,  an i m p o r t a n t e f f e c t o f t r i p  Because o f t h e great  in  Average  with  a t the beginning  characterized  rates  there  immediate need.  o f t h e f o l l o w i n g month.  centrated  generation  a n t i c i p a t e d l o n g e r - t e r m demand a n d t h e - s u p p l y  Billing demand:  extre-  t o be f o r c e d  any one day w i t h i n  employment does n o t vary  logs.  would be  t h e e n d o f t h e week, c o n s t r u c t i o n  beginning.  changes; w i t h  later,  function  that ex-  i n f a c t than  a r e made t o r e t a i l e r s  a t the time o f t h e i r  tort  be seen  i n the sawmill-based  sites  the  time periods  move-  or i sat  a complex range o f f a c t o r s  f o r the inventory  manufacturer  truck  time periods,  Day-to-day v a r i a t i o n i n t r i p  found t o be q u i t e  the  Much i n t r a - u r b a n  short  o f v a r i a t i o n over short  difficult.  tendency  114 -  a maxi-  industry  this  might be  generation  and weekly  of parallel  con-  rates.  levels of  variation  as t h e b a s i c  time  unit.  -  This  i s encouraged  tistics  record  for  totals  monthly  that  a monthly checked  aggregate industry basis,  against  shipments.  As  It  and  the  a result  sta-  individual  the firm's  t o estimate the percentage of t o t a l  the l o c a l  the  on  c o u l d be  of total  -  the fact  are a v a i l a b l e  shipment  sible  by  115  own  i t was  shipments  pos-  destined  market. became o b v i o u s , e v e n  same m o n t h c o u l d  n o t be  sons  of data availability.  cify  one  i n the p i l o t  surveyed f o r each I t was  also  firm  because  that  the  Some m o n t h s - t h o s e w h o s e s h i p m e n t , - l e v e l s , w e r e  labour  disruptions  disputes,  unrealistic  relationships  month s e l e c t e d  ing  criteria:  and  i t s h o u l d be  volume  f a r removed as p o s s i b l e  as p o s s i b l e ,  the  and  from a n t i c i p a t e d  give  shipments.  i n 19 7 0 ,  as  or  follow-  as  close  i t should recent  disputes. As  finally  a result defined  (1)  ing  between-employment  i t s h o u l d be  be  monthly  expected to  to meeting  shipment  of  s e r v i c e s '-.(.tow'-boat  f i r m had  annual average  labour  c o u l d be  f o r some  f o r each  to  were  i n transportation  f o r example) -  The  shutdowns  spe-  be  a f f e c t e d by  temporary  to  month would firms.  by  that  f o r rea-  undesirable  p a r t i c u l a r m o n t h as much as p o s s i b l e distorted  survey,  of the p i l o t  survey, data requirements  as:  Average  production  and maintenance  workers,  f o r 19 7 0 . (2)  Total  (3)  Truck shipments  destination  production  and q u a n t i t y  and  shipments  p e r day  f o r each  f o r each  month.  month,  includ-  f o r one shipment.  - 116 -  These  d a t a were c o l l e c t e d , . d u r i n g  all  forty-three  plants.  I n each  the  following  procedure:  (1)  A letter,  case, the survey  outline  eved  data requirements.  as  t o become  A visit familiar  (3)  and  daily  with  truck  Shipment  a tour  i t s function  between  site (1)  or  truck  local  so  and o r g a n i z a t i o n . t o over  shipping,  and O r g a n i z a t i o n collected  f o rthis  Principal  trips  the  physical  ter  urban  i s that  produced  Local  truck  into  from the  c a n be r e c o g -  movements  several  by t h e s i t e  shipments:  from an  types: this  i s t o move t h e m a i n to a final  I t can be s u b d i v i d e d  distribution  region  trips  commodity movement:  whose p u r p o s e  destination. (a)  and n o n - l o c a l  may b e c l a s s i f i e d  p r o d u c t group  mediate  mill  records.  Classification  The r e a s o n  industrial  all  achi-  s a w m i l l s aresshowniinssjummaryfifOEmianTrEab!e33 . A A  distinction nized.  o f , each  took from a few hours  Much.of t h e d a t a which were twenty  o f the study  employment, p r o d u c t i o n and  activity  to senior  management.  t o , and o f t e n  A survey, which  a week, o f t h e m i l l s '  t h e purpose  for  followed  A 1 0 0 % s u c c e s s r a t e was  i n s o l i c i t i n g c o o p e r a t i o n from (2)  1971,  followed by p e r s o n a l v i s i t ,  firm executives i n order to explain and  Spring  includes product  or  inter-  into:  the adjacent i n s t i t u t i o n i n  channel i s located within  a n d n o mode t r a n s f e r  i s likely.  the grea-  T a b l e 3.  VANCOUVER  SURVEY:  EMPLOYMENT,  MEAN ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT 19 70 Sawmill Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .. 8 " 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 T  ^, (20 s a w m i l l s ) 0  f  A L  PRODUCTION WORKERS  OFFICE AND SALES EMP..  PRODUCTION, TRUCK TRIP DATA ANNUAL LUMBER PRODUCTION (1000 FBM) 1970  TOTAL TRUCK TRIPS PER WEEK NON-LOCAL LOCAL AND EXPORT (TO DOCK) 1. 32 3. 75 10. 79 --  221. 0 50.7 422. 0 31.3 452.3 500.0 144. 8 188.5 75.0 88.2 175.0 759 .6 177.1 162.0 100.0 19 4. 8 217.0 200.0 19.6 199.1  31 7 45 3 50 201 14 33 8 10 19 76 17 18 9 44 22 20 4 24  10840.1 1269.5 6291.1 N. A. 13772.8 20050.0 5872.9 7437 .1 1473.4 1953.3 3634.6 21799.8 7704.3 4143.7 3037.6 7310.0 8000.0 N. A. 434 .4 . 6957.0  26.05 28.25 38.33 15.25 22. 14 145.83 37.25 47.37 16.25 15.33 7.65 87. 33 58.22 25. 75 53. 24 11.50 22.00 29 .00 9.29 62. 50  5.00 11.00 2. 11 7.50 43.33 -10.67 2. 86 3.75 2 . 75  4378.0  655  131981.6  758. 54  117. 33  —  — —  10.00 2 . 50  - 118 -  (b) weight, and  Long-distance shipments:  v a l u e and p h y s i c a l  the location  ferred  (2)  characteristics  o f the customer,  to long-distance  truck,  shipments  be  b u t whose p r o d u c t i o n  the p r o d u c t i o n lumber  industry,  chips,  sawdust,  local  to  the site  fuel),  of  trip  mill  or service  I n a complete  these t r i p s  would  ignores  machinery,  as  n o t be double  that  trips  attracted  that  they are a very i n s i g n i f i c a n t  to the site  i n and o u t o f s i t e s  analytical  counted. were^.not part  of waste  material  attracted  some'  The m a i n included  of total  reason  here i s  truck-trip  studied.  Fur-  available.  t o approach  a  signi-  mills.  and waste  stage of this  raw  as g e n e r a t e d by o t h e r  trips  By-product  (including  region,  i n the a c t i v i t i e s  volume a r e f o r plywood  attracted  and t o d e l i v e r  The  ficant  between  supplies  frequency are not readily  cases i n which  to  above.  thermore, d a t a on t h e i r only  o r may n o t  from the  trips  study o f t h e urban  and need  category  value per ton, are  and o f f i c e  activities  making  Examples  applies,  be c l a s s i f i e d  trans-  ancillary  T h e same d i s t i n c t i o n  classification  be  this  w h i c h may  i s essentially  shipments  - to deliver  to repair  materials.  movement:  commodity.  hog f u e l .  o f t h e commodity,  water or a i r .  in; o r d e r o f d e c r e a s i n g  and l o n g - d i s t a n c e This  rail,  o f those commodities  o f t h e main  on t h e  t h e s h i p m e n t may  B y - p r o d u c t and waste  includes sold,  depending  study.  movements d i d n o t e n t e r t h e The movement  (household, commercial, and  and  disposal  industrial)  - 119 -  should  be a d i s t i n c t  and  interface  the  approach taken  of  more  trucks i n this  wide per  closely here. type  ranges o f t r i p month, m o s t l y  tion  o f hog f u e l  exemplifies generally  this  i t as b o i l e r  For  such  cent  mills  producers  i n excess with  of  hog f u e l  have  fuel,  i n periods  The though l e s s e r material chips  the  larger  pulp these  a n d h i g h b u l k , many  o f excess  demand  either  f o r chips  variations;  sawmills Smaller  by-products  from  p o w e r demand.  furnaces,  adja-  For mills  either  to other mills as l a n d  in.their  mills  processes.  f o r reasons  regulation, large quantities  o f hog  f o r u s e as  f i l l .  These  demands, and  very  they  and sawdust e x h i b i t s find  their  and paper i n d u s t r y .  and sawdust i s n o r m a l l y  mills.  fuel i s  changes.  f o r the pulp  for  o f hOg  have t o be i m p o r t e d  are highly variable to price  The t r a n s p o r t a -  o f demand and s i n c e i t i s an  o r t o c o n t r a c t o r s and farmers  sensitive  extremely  t o s e v e r a l hundred  The s u p p l y  to oil-fired  t o be s h i p p e d  activities  revealed  zero  does  whose main i n g r e d i e n t i s bark)  low value  may  than  o f the use  t o produce steam f o r m i l l  economy o r m u n i c i p a l  fuel  from  research  research  short distances.  instability.  which have s w i t c h e d  recycling  o f goods movement  (a substance  fuel  goods movement  A cursory examination  generation  product  use  with  f o r very  greatly  unavoidable  p a r t o f urban  tend  mills  Since  t h e demand  i n  space,  transportation to  i n t h e urban  to the local  main use as a raw  concentrated  t o use barge  similar  stockpile  area  normally  o f a major  truck  pulp  - 120  company,  -  from whence i t i s b a r g e d  difference  to the pulp  i n the scale of operations  small mills  could  rates were t h i s This  group o f commodities overview  of.the data  manufacturing  sideration.  This  characteristics tly  and d i s t r i b u t i o n  of truck  generation  considered.  requirements  and  activity  of  system under  claims  commodities  con-  that the  t r a n s p o r t and d i s t r i b u t i o n i n which  survey  the p e c u l i a r i t i e s  i s i n line with earlier  a f u n c t i o n o f t h e way  processed.  t o be  This  l a r g e and  account f o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n t r i p  procedure has n e c e s s a r i l y emphasized the  between  mill.  are par-  are s p a t i a l l y  - 121 -  CHAPTER V I  A T E S T OF THE I N D U S T R I A L  I t was s e e n e a r l i e r mating lied  trip  generation  on e i t h e r  variable.  floor  rates  space  F l o o r s p a c e was  PLANT-SIZE  t h a t t h e u s u a l method o f  o r employment  and  i t s use has n o t been pursued here.  posed  t o generate truck  floor  space  data,  traffic  insurmountable d i f f i c u l t i e s , b y s o much s t o r a g e  may b e i n s i d e  buildings, partially  questions  response sarily of  relating  mean  that floor  space  non-industrial activities  of  especially  made  definition  i n an i n d u s t r y space  which  covered, or exterior. space  u s u a l l y met w i t h  These c o n c l u s i o n s should such  studies  An a t t e m p t was  and p r o d u c t i o n  to floor  due t o i g n o r a n c e .  indicator of  i n earlier  b u t the problems  characterized  Also,  as the independent  f o u n d t o be a p o o r  propensity  gather  esti-  from n o n - r e s i d e n t i a l s i t e s r e -  the  to  MODEL  do n o t n e c e s -  n o t be u s e d  as r e t a i l  no  i n studies  and o f f i c e  land  uses. This  Chapter not only  employment s i z e adjusts marketed  on t h e p r o p e n s i t y  the effect  locally,  a whole using  of  t o generate t r i p s ,  employment by t h e q u a n t i t y o f p r o d u c t i o n and measures t h e l e v e l  tween employment, p r o d u c t i o n as  tests  i t also  which i s  o f a s s o c i a t i o n be-  and shipments  aggregate published  total  data.  f o rthe industry  - 122  The  Plant-Size  Model:  Vancouver The vehicle  trip  total  Survey  generation postulates A  truck (b)  ment and  A Test Using  close trips  that  commercial  there  exists:  r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l  employment  generated at manufacturing  Higher correlation  trips  the  Data  m o s t common f o r m o f m o d e l o f  (a) and  -  for individual  coefficients  industries  sites.  between  employ-  than f o r a l l firms  combined. These  c l a i m s were t e s t e d  using  the  following  variables: (a) from the s i t e ing  Total  V.  "Total  culated ing  by  and  trips  veyed days  trips"  here  refers  summing a l l t r i p s  to non-local  (b) ance w o r k e r s  per  5/D,  movement.  to local  in  be-  Chapter  destinations, e t c . , and  monthly  t h e s u r v e y was  cal-  includthose  total  sur-  working  conducted,  to  week. average  i n the month o f t h e  the p l a n t - s i z e  Exclud-  p e r week; i t i s  terminals, The  trips  the r e l a t i o n s h i p  where D = the number o f  Employment:  Figure  ship  to trips  destinations.  i n t h e month i n w h i c h trips  and w a s t e  a l ltruck  employment f o r reasons e x p l a i n e d  i s a d j u s t e d by  obtain  includes  s h o u l d improve  those to dock-side, truck  direct  to  this  except by-product  these l a t t e r  tween t r i p s  trips:  10  shows an  model,  i s i n f l u e n c e d by  p r o d u c t i o n and  survey.  adequate  overall  but the s i g n i f i c a n c e  t h e few  mainten-  high values of X  f i t o f the of the  data  relation-  (employment).  - 123 -  (Y) r- total trips  200  Figure 10s Total Truck Trips / Total Employees: All Plants  180  All plants: N = 39 Y = 21.22+0.14 X r = 0.625  160  140  120  awmills: = 19.34+ 0.113X  100  80  L  60  L  40  L  O sawmills • plywood mills E3 paper mills miscellaneous employment ((X) o  200  400  600  80O  1000 id/hs  - 124 -  Figure li:  Residuals From Regression (Figure 10): All Plants  predicted 160  O  20  40  60  80  IOO  I20  140  observed  id/hs  -  Also  there  i s a very  poor  Extracting from  the  either  the  industrial  as  duals  one  nificance evidence  trips  because of  the  The  very wide  reasons  rates using  groups:  total  different  different  employee).  The  considered  regression  ured  per  sion  lines  f o r the  asso-  industries  are  ply-  properly  classi-  pattern of  resi-  and  the  to the p o i n t where i t s s i g -  level.  There  i s , however,  data because of 19.34)  the and  and  low  high the  small plants i n both  over-  equations.  relationship, number o f  poor estimates  employment can  be  mainly  observa-  first.  the  plants,  and  of productivity  employee  are  firms.  and  of  two  or  w h i c h may  e m p l o y e e w i t h i n an  genera-  (quantity i n weight  There  r a t e s between  of t r i p  divided into  characteristics  rates  10  This  X.  question  i n Figures  ( F i g . 12).  i s a closer  The  to improve the  of  relationships  productivity  99%  scatter  market  productivity  system.  i n the  failed  (sawmills)  to that for a l l firms,  the majority of  log^X  plants  that sawmills,  21.22, S a w m i l l s :  f o r higher values  be  the  group of p l a n t s .  f o r separate  suggests  i s lowered  (Allplants:  using  size  results.  i n c l u d e d here  is similar  of n o n - l i n e a r i t y  of  one  that there  activity  coefficient  predictions test  mills  i s doubtful at  constants  tions  other  for sawmills  correlation  will  the  f o r a l l f i r m s combined, or  fied  per  improve  b e t w e e n employment and  and  tion  f i t f o r any  hypothesis  wood m i l l s ,  A  -  a homogeneous group o f  does not  disproves  ciation than  total  125  be  two  basic effects  expected  High  to shift  from  quantities  industry should 12  per  volume  cause  t o the  on  different manufact-  the  left  regresas  more  - 126 -  Figure 12!  Total Trips/Total Employment For Sawmills (Y) total trips  N = 20 Y= 19.34 + 0.113X r = 0,567 S E = 28.76  1 40  y  1 20  1 OO  80  BO  • •  ••  40  20 -  • •  o 0  •  • • I  I  100  200  employment • 300  4Q0  500  «>  600  id/hs  - 127 -  F i g u r e 13"  Residuals From Regression (Figure 12): Sawmills  Y  predicted  id/hs  -  trips  128 -  p e r employee a r e r e q u i r e d  t o move t h e c o m m o d i t y .  this  r e a s o n we: m i g h t h a v e e x p e c t e d t h e s a w m i l l  line  f o r" A l l Plants"  in  production,  increasing  be  plant  size,  with  cause  higher  load  economies  (such  relatively  high  with  trip  The  generation  load  I f this  This  there  generation  In fact this  seem  suggests'that  10) h a v e to-increase  there  f a c t o r s as p r o d u c t i o n  scale  i s little  increases.  effects of productivity levels are d i f f i c u l t  to  detect  using  of  the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e market f o rt h e product.  total  employment because  influence  of the s p a t i a l  tribution  channels  extent  deserve  T r i p -Generation The  Rates  most s i g n i f i c a n t  r e - s a l e o r consumption.  particularly  between truck  complete model. analysis.  First,  The  and l o c a l  dis-  consideration.  and M a r k e t transport  Distance aspect  of a  between p r o d u c t i o n  Here t h e q u e s t i o n and r a i l  F o r two r e a s o n s , "local"  of the importance  o f the market  primary  market i s the p h y s i c a l distance of  should  does n o t  Figure  rates which  were  rates per  exhibiting strong  and plywood m i l l s ,  firm size.  room f o r i m p r o v i n g  productivity with  increases.  i n trip  Industries  as p a p e r  Economies o f s c a l e  f a c t o r s on t r u c k s ,  o f increase  place.  regression  increasing trips per  (employment)  as f i r m s i z e i n c r e a s e s .  appear t o take  linearly  should  size  a declining rate  employee  left.  e s p e c i a l l y those of higher  employee as p l a n t associated  t o move t o . t h e  For  and p o i n t  o f modal  split,  transportation, enters  i t i s ignored  i s defined  plant's  a  i n this  as c o m p r i s i n g  t h e Lower  - 129  Fraser There  Valley  i s a l m o s t no r a i l  Vancouver in  (Vancouver  and a l lp o i n t s traffic  and t e r m i n a t e s  very  (Greater  little  Vancouver)  Exceptions  (Washington  traffic  Direct  especially  region here).  outside  and s c a t t e r e d  paper products t o Canadian  as g e n e r a l  sizes  dock by  are transferred  Overseas  points  t h e U.S.  i n the rest o f  points  to these  destinations,  destinations, which f o r to inter-city  which  are shipped  truck,  and  v i a water  or coastal  shipments  transferred to  truck.  and  plywood  the  number o f p l a n t s  mills  i s shown i n F i g u r e  category with  dock e x p o r t s  size  region.  Island,  The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e s e shipments  rates  area  freight. (c)  mills  falling  trips  i n t o each  (i.e.,  are i n s i g n i f i c a n t  trip  of plants.  illustrates  generation  by p u r p o s e . outside  mainly because  trip  of the larger  However t h e d i f f e r e n c e  rate  Truck-to-  the Lower  f o r the majority  throughout tend t o have h i g h e r  than sawmills,  f o r sawmills  14, w h i c h  distinguished  and l o n g - d i s t a n c e  Valley)  Plywood  There i s  the  t o Vancouver  Mode-transfer shipments  shipment  Fraser  (at least  provinces.  wood p r o d u c t s t o c o a s t a l  size  i n Greater  o r i g i n a t i n g i n the urban  shipments  and Oregon),  (b)  the  considered  and t e r m i n a t i n g  and t h e p r a i r i e  small  which originates  east).  to this are: (a)  B.C.  truck  t o 90 m i l e s  elsewhere i n this  the case o f the commodities  also  -  of  mills.  generation average  i s accentuated i n  - 130 -  18  number of plants  Figure 14: Frequency of Trip  Generation Rates: Export (to dock), Long Distance and Local Shipment  16 14 12  I  l  sawmills plywood mills  10 8 6  export  4 2 O  I8 16  long-distance  14 12 IO 8 6  1  4  2 O  local  O  l-IO  20  O  40  50  O  70  80  90  IOO  MO  120  130  140  truck trips per week id/hs  150  - 131 -  the  case  o f export  shipments.  This  i s probably  due t o s e v e r a l  factors: (1) ber. the  i s more p e r i s h a b l e p r o d u c t  Because o f the general dockside,  forced but  Plywood  i n v e n t o r i e s f o roverseas  onto t h e manufacturer.  the arrival  crete  lack o f covered  and departure  and c o n t r o l l e d  Since times  by a v a r i e t y  fluence  o f the manufacturer,  storage  a t the dockside  storage  lum-  space a t  shipment tends  production of ships  i s continuous, dis-  beyond t h e i n -  cannot r i s k  reliance  t o be  i shighly  of factors  the shipper  by t o t a l  than  outdoor  on barge t r a n s p o r t -  ation . (2) q u e s t i o n when are  Related  the ship i s i n port  the fastest  product  (3)  vations  a n d more r e l i a b l e  i s moved  f o r plywood  t o (1) i s t h e f a c t  the other  magnitudes o f t r i p s  This  premature  observations f o rd i f f e r e n t  effectively.  barge  possibility  market Obser-  traffic  i s insufficient  trip  may b e made o n t h e r e l a t i v e purposes  (Figure 14).  generation  that the lack o f barge  One  i n the export  a barge-loading  a n d h a s s i n c e c l o s e d down.  t o suggest  that the  factors.  p l a n t was w i t h o u t  o f the survey  trucks  t h a t f o rlumber.  of lumber-carrying  s a w m i l l has an u n u s u a l l y h i g h  time  mode f o r e n s u r i n g  than  indicates that this  Some o t h e r  category.  time;  I t i s also possible that the export  o f the frequency  to n u l l i f y  i s turnaround  from i n v e n t o r y t o s h i p ' s h o l d  i s more s i g n i f i c a n t  from sawmills  that the crucial  ramp a t t h e  I t w o u l d be  access  was. a  -  factor  i n the  in  l i g h t of  the  modal  closure, but the  place  This  irregularity  of  total basis  The  low  of  need to  ship  given  in  highly  the  and  regarding  truck/barge  through  of  activity  truck  dock whenever a of  the  to  distances. data  reduced to per out  the  gathered  on  non-  a is  for research  into  reduce  movements and  yet  times  i s a m a i n r e a s o n why  the  north  shore of  on  the  urban  indoor  access.  truck  storage Further  d i s t r i b u t i o n process well  as  s t a b i l i z a t i o n , i f not  large  ship  reduction  Burnard  innovations similar  this  urban  Inlet  facilities  to  sizes, will of  in  in  this  week a v e r a g e s  need  take  ply-  t r a v e l by  However,  time,  is  dependence of  its ability  means t h a t  ship  transport  barge-unloading  as  unstable  d i f f e r e n t modes o f  turnaround  (urban)  and  for short  substantial  development, a  are  I t points  Seaboard Terminal  terminal  and  shipments  unreliable.  areas.  side  interesting possibility  Sudden b u r s t s  storage  least  interfacing  being  i s an  i s another i n d i c a t i o n  modes, a t  quite  dock  plant  wood upon c o v e r e d  monthly  to  f o r plywood.  between the  port.  tain  this  split.  especially  the  -  above c o n s i d e r a t i o n s  Shipments  bulk  132  and in  re-  is shipthe  Seaboard's  contribute  type of  to  traffic  Vancouver. Because of  dock,  and  p u r p o s e on these  the  the  i r r e g u l a r i t y of  apparent dependence of  factors  beyond the  t r i p s g e n e r a t e d by  shipment  truck  usage  consideration  plants  were dropped  of  to  the  for  this  this  study,  from t o t a l  trips.  - 133 -  Other of  l o n g - d i s t a n c e shipments  their  insignificance,  were o m i t t e d  leaving  as w e l l  a residual  because  of purely  local  trips. The- o m i s s i o n recognition  from  the plant size  t h a t much o f a p l a n t ' s o u t p u t  model o f f o r m a l may be. s h i p p e d  n o n - h i g h w a y modes o f t r a n s p o r t c a n b e r e c t i f i e d b'a-'sic/non-basic d i c h o t o m y . percentage equal to  t o the percentage  the local  market,  using the  Based on t h e assumption  o f employees producing  f o rthe local  o f q u a n t i t y produced  non-basic  (local)  by  that the  market i s  that i s shipped  employment i s e q u a l  to:  where: X^ = n o n - b a s i c X  = total =  Q  (a)  one  equal sold  assumption  presumes  The p r o d u c t  on t h e e x p o r t  f o rlocal There  assumptions the  Local quantity o f product  sold  shipped  p e r month  p e r month  that:  on t h e l o c a l  market r e q u i r e s  quantity o f labour i n the production process  (b) equal  employment  = Total quantity shipped  t  This  an  employment  closer  The  market.  lag. .between :  p r o d u c t i o n and shipments  and l o n g - d i s t a n c e  may n o t b e m e t .  i s  markets.  are several circumstances  the product  to the  i n which  these  I t c o u l d be h y p o t h e s i z e d  i s to i t s point of final  that  consumption,  -  both, i n s p a c e and more not  "processed" only  sorted  the  and  processed requires  within  the  physical  state  a  local  greater  each p l a n t ,  wood p r o d u c t s  chain  of  of  lags  shipments.  There  employment and  falls  to  the  t o be  significant  causes  the  c h a p t e r on  our  concern i s to  accessible  and  the  ratio  and  the  used  probably  less  that  the  with  latter  (a), that  respect  to  of  labour  reasonable within  A  simple  the  the  industries.  two  lags  should  Where the  between production  improve  (Chapter the  so  estimation  consistent  out  lags  vary  will  there and be  IX).  productio between  be  likely  shipments..  considered the  of  within  the  to  urban  in  moment easily  transportation  assumed t o be  shipped  in  function  are  At  problem of  pos-  together  negligible.  n o n - b a s i c employment  quantity  shipped  and  p l a n t - s i z e model u s i n g  the  of  the  inventory  channel,  lags  causal  demand i g n o r e s  insignificant  employment w i l l  were:  be  between employment/production  between the  measures were  s h i p m e n t s may  i s more s e r i o u s .  forecasting  quantity  i t  transportation  information,  The  also  t o be  s i g n i f i c a n c e of  demand l a g g i n g  ally  (b)  are  includes  product, but  Assumption  manufacturer i n the  The  "Processed"  the  system.  production;  labour-intensive  distribution,  implying  input.  appear  activity  employment -  sibility  Export  function  does  of  be.  the  shipments,  labour  Assumption  to  of  packaged s t a t e . than  -  channel  i t is likely  a homogeneous p r o d u c t i o n within  134  requires  local  destination  region.  each plant;  the  Quantity  units  norm-  -  Sawmills: to  a  12"  x  12"  x  This  Board  1"  Plywood  135  piece  and  -  feet. of  A  board  foot  i s equivalent  lumber.  panelboard  i s equivalent to panels  mills:  of  12"  x  l/16ths  12"  x  and  1/16"  3/8ths.  or  3/8"  dimensions. Paper  mills:  Quantity ming  the  If  these  sources may  be  tice  (in  of  error  apply  to  75%  records  quantity the  plants  the  the  the  For  sawmills  by  data  0.567 t o  can  terms  their  rail,  the  indeed trip  the  estimate  (0.676 however, 0.843 be  local  and  of  the  generation  generated  with  the  correlation This  a distinct  rates.  estimated  the  correlation  (Figure 15).  considered  pro-  possible  local  with  prac-  truck total  minimal,  here.  trips  compared  local  same  were  almost, always  i n the  month. two  of  The  d i s t a n c e and  used  by  Wherever  shipments  sum-  Plants  accounting  shipments.  compared  by  trips  definition  here,  was  been  trips.  shipments"  summed  long  plant  calculated  truck  shipments.  error  improvement  alone,  sawmills  total  be  local  cases), total  revised no  the  used  q u a n t i t y has  grouped  from  one  percentage  recorded  showed  "total of  may  local  r a t h e r than  of water,  latter  of  to  on  introduced:  defining  The  for  moved  are  of  The  of  instead  record sales  shipments.  and  used  (lbs.)  locally  carried  records  different  about  from  have  are  may  blems  shipped  quantities  frequently  Weight  The  by  the  coefficient  previous  0.625).  coefficient indicates activity  constant  is  that in reduced  -  (Y  200  180  I  }  ,_  ,  136 -  .  local trips  Figure  is: Local Trips/Non-Basic Employment! All Plants  Sawmills; N = I9 Y|=6.62+0.7I7X| r = 0.843 S E  y  =  18.59  160  140  I20 All  plants:  N = 36 Y| = I7.6+0.45IX, r = 0.676 S E = 32.27  IOO  y  80  60  40  20  O  sawmills  O  plywood  M  paper  •  mills  mills  miscellaneous  non-basic  employment  ,(X,) 100  200  300  id/hs  Figure  16:  Residuals From Regression (Figure 15): Sawmills Y, = 6 . 6 2 + 0 . 7 l 7 X , where Y| = local t r i p s Xi = n o n - b a s i c  20  40  60  80  employment  100  120  -  to  a manageable s i z e :  unately and  a plot  of  a continuing  tests for  using  poor  and  lowered  percentage  m a r k e t s by ment and if X^_  we  aware of  (total  of a  from  three  Q-j_/Q  i s probably  true  characteristics  local  the  are  to  by-pass that  X^  number o f  of  from industry to  say  that  products  more l i k e l y  plant  the  between  there  size.  This  increases,  occur i n the  heterogeneity the  inverse  much l i k e l y  Thus the the  to  In  on  local employ^  other  items  words,  required is  a n  <i  for  reduced  useful  industry.  the  firms  one  any  a significant market which  i n the  is  relative  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , spec-  s p a t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the  products within  t o b e c o m e p o s i t i v e as  "an  within  an t  of  the  'However,  r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n Q-]_/Q  existence  d e f i n i t i o n of  of  between  more homogeneous  i s because  will  as  data  i s t o be  ialization As  to  total  (non-basic employment)  s p e c i a l i z a t i o n i n product  market.  Again,  for data  i s shipped  r e l a t i o n s h i p between p e r c e n t of  and  need  market which i s l o c a l .  absence of  not  the  probably wide d i f f e r e n c e s  ^(X^)  =  t  inverse  16).  one.  There  industry,  (Figure  t  f i r m to estimate  it  firms  tendency  c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s both  quantity  employment), the  to  Unfort-  f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n Q-j_/Q  each  form of  day.  e s t a b l i s h i n g a r e l a t i o n s h i p between  percentage  are  per  combined.  useful  total  larger  the  a l l plants  of  trip  shows a h e t e r o s c e d a s t i c  f i t for  I t w o u l d be the  -  j u s t o v e r one  residuals  log^X  sawmills  138  such  industry".  a  become  function w i l l  a  nd  the  industry X  t  is  insignificant. depend  on  - 139 -  Supposing geneous p r o d u c t of  i n existence  established size  may  from of  over  supply  destined  for local  and lumber marketing) and s m a l l  significantly  different.  gest  firms  may  market given  t o vary  the simple  The  might be e x p e c t e d reason  customers  acteristics to  seek  might  markets.  This  are probably  and l o c a l  prices  t o have  from  plant  few economies i n log-  f o r lumber  to retain a foothold  the smallest  close  the  lar-  i n the l o c a l  structure of  i n their  production  markets.  firms  Part  probably  small  t o these  less productive  that  market  scale.  of  do  number o f  customers.  flexibility for  size or specification  at a distance,  because o f the high  also hypothesize  have  percentage  s i z e o f f i r m , and even  locate  customers  such orders  firms are  are consequently not  physical distribution  i s that  unusual  the type  Thus t h e s h a r e o f t h e l o c a l with  homo-  i s supported  t h e f i r m , t h e more o f i t s  and t h e r e f o r e  meeting orders  9"er  a.decreasing  i n custom-cut lumber f o r a very  They a r e l i k e l y  L a r  Increasing  t o be a l l o c a t e d t o l o c a l  for this  specialize  X  (unlike the situation  at the local  smaller  ^^ t^ *  with  manufacturers  be expected  lumber marketing  the  there  i n lumber production  not expected  fairly  hypothesize  markets.  be a s s o c i a t e d  between l a r g e  is  =  t o have  as a r e s u l t o f t h e c o n t r o l t h e y  another perspective:  scale  we may  Qi/Q-t  long-distance  therefore  production  industry  characteristics,  functional relationship:  probably  of  the sawmill  char-  and a r e u n l i k e l y  risks  involved.  t h e f i r m would not have  t o be  We  - 140 -  very  large  sonment"  before  i t escaped  i n the l o c a l  lumber marketing kets  from t h i s  market.  The e x i s t e n c e  associations  almost equally  makes  possible  t h e c o r r e l a t i o n o f Q-]_/Q  of  downward s l o p i n g  their  shipments  soon e n t e r i n g The retain  their  slope  rate  n  v  Y = a  +  Y =  result  ficient  having  and decrease  are able  to take  level. to the  advantage o f  Therefore  a  data:  t  total  shipped  employment  17) was that  a s u r p r i s i n g l y good  further  reduce  research  i n this  s i z e and  find  o r l o c a l l y - o r i e n t e d employment.  greater  do n o t n e e d  can be estimated  accuracy.  from  area.  quantity  to  trips  suf-  functions  locally,  local  we  and  product marketed "non-basic"  clearly  fit,  on such  data requirements  the r e l a t i o n s h i p between p l a n t  employment w i t h  firms  a t a de-  (Q-^/Q ) = p e r c e n t o f p r o d u c t i o n to l o c a l markets  (Figure  that  firms  as medium t o l a r g e  of  means  much  t  might s i g n i f i c a n t l y  this  a  r —  t o conclude  I f we k n o w  firms  by  area.  markets,  fitted  firms.  . b  100  X^_=  small  market  firms  f o r m was  X  where:  t  even a t t h e l o c a l  of this  would be d e s c r i b e d  x  decrease  i n local  as l a r g e  reputation  hyperbola  would  mar-  argument  markets b u t small-medium  the non-local  a foothold  creasing  The  o  curve with  to local  to non-local  from the preceding  t  rapidly  access  of international  f o r small-medium and l a r g e  It-may be c o n c l u d e d that  position of "impri-  a  survey In turn,  total  Figure  17= P l a n t S i z e v s . R a n g e o f S a l e s  Y 100  ri  Y = 15.23 + I 0 8 9 X " SE SE  80  r  2  X  = 288.4  Y=Q,/Q -100  = 15.06 yx = 0.456  t  where Q | is production sold locally and Q  X=  t  is total production  average annual  employment  60  40  20  200  400  600  id  /hs  -  142  -  Employment-Local Shipment C o r r e l a t i o n ; With Aggregate The aggregate plant)  remainder of  (industry-wide)  data with  a view  this  Comparison  Data  chapter  data with  to  A  seeks  to  disaggreate  f u r t h e r examining  s h i p s between employment, p r o d u c t i o n ,  total  compare (individual  the and  relationlocal  ship-  ments . D a t a were o b t a i n e d monthly production, employment for  these  f o r the  total year  v a r i a b l e s are  cell  i n Table  able  remaining  with  employment f o r the  tend  not  The  to  highest  ables  add  local  /  /  A  2  their  and  tion  exist total  year  amount o f may  cause  shown i n T a b l e  The  4.  a lack of  latter  chain  vary a  can  labour  in  data  a  through  between^employment  of  i n the  mills year. vari-  the  coef-  production,  shipments  labour  and  can  value  suggest of  r.  required  in  (lumber type)  hold quantity produced  a non-proportional  the  v a r i a b l e s , we  change i n p r o d u c t  A  these  case  Thus h i g h  and  total  amount o f  required.  vari-  between p a i r s of  of production.  each p a i r  or  any  i s f r e q u e n t l y the  exist  and  and  coefficients  A blank  smaller plants, since  should  on  shipments,  correlation  c o n t r i b u t e towards reducing  processing; the  The  shipments,  For  products  within the  i n the  shipments.  :  19 7 0 .  local  d e l e t e whole s h i f t s  coefficients  factors which l  or  should  production  A  constant.  majority of plants  shipments,  4 indicates either  adjacent  ficients  f o r the  constant  produced and  change i n volume o f change i n employment  change  producbecause  -  143  -  TABLE 4' CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS: PRODUCTION, SHIPMENTS LOCAL SHIPMENTS, EMPLOYMENT Where: a l l v a r i a t e s a r e t o t a l s p e r month A^= T o t a l employment A^= T o t a l p r o d u c t i o n A = T o t a l shipments A^= L o c a l shipments = S i g n i f i c a n t a t 95% l e v e l #  V  A  2  V  A  3  0.kk9 0.397  0.823* 0.617*  0.581* 0.391 0.671* 0.036  0-.7U9* 0.11+8 0.662* -0.130  O..867*  0.1+03  -0.125 -0.237  0.009 • -0.109  -0.325  0.221+  0.320 -0.139  -0.223 0.153  O.61I+*  0.539  0.61+8*  0.731*  A  l  / A  l+  0.802* 0.300 0.371 -0.231+ 0.370 0.367  0.511  -0.210  A /A 2  3  0.607* 0.598* 0.711* • -0.31+8 0.3H+ O.58U* 0.236 0.399 0.37^ • 0.579* 0.1+22 0.882* -0.002  V \  A 3  /\  -0.085 0.393 0.303  0.859 O.651*  0.1+71+ 0.393 0.231 -0.328  0.1+09 0.511 0.695* -0.169  0.601* -0.207  0.1+12 Saw0.116 m i l l s (survey)  0.811* -0.1+07  0.880 -O.308  0.525  0.26U  0.319 0.1+36  0.159  0.505  0.1+03 0.1+50 0.812*  -0.135 0.502  0.6lU*PlyO.589*wood & Panel Mills (survey)  0.838*  0.667* 0.903* 0.659*  0.316 0.679*  O.U77 0.1+81 0.1+01+  0.791*  0.21+9  0.038  0.503  0.26H  0.77l+* Sawmills 1970(D.B.S.)  0.1+20*  0.221+  0.279*  0.551*  0.1+79*  0.1+68* ° * „^Sawmills 1966-70(DBS)  C o a s t  C  a S  -  144  -  some p r o c e s s e s  performed w i t h i n the  p l a n t are  less  intensive  others  different  levels  machine  than  or because of  of  capacity-utilization.  A^/A^:  production  and  shipments  because o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n the and  labour-  the  o f t e n do  timing of  demand f o r t h e p r o d u c t .  minimum where t h e  producer  function w i t h i n the  This  i s able  channel,  not  vary  supply  of  materials  difference i s at  to abdicate  which  together  i s not  the  the case  a  inventory in  the  sawmill industry. A^/A^: the  local  extent  ilar  to  shipments  and  total  that a plant's local  i t s total The  t o be  closer  ments  (A2)  three than  are  intervening  market,  including  others.  export  Employment difficult  comparison purposes,  (A^)  and the  ranked  frequency  nificant lute  i n the  value  i n the The  cients tion  of  case  the of  the  plant)  productivity  The  sawmill  be and  total  pairs of  hypothesized local  ship-  Statistics  and  being their  tend  to lower  data  there  abso-  coeffi-  data.  r values  must be  sig-  data.  unreliable  component i n the  the  v a r i a b l e s are  their  Canada  generate  per  sim-  shipments.  of  survey)  Statistics  trend  factors which  (individual  different  of  1966-1970 d a t a  becauserof  to the  survey  case  i n a way  equivalent  5.  the  to  to associate, given  Canada data are shown i n T a b l e below according t o  related  shipments.  above can  influence of production  For  are  market behaves  relationships  especially  shipments  for  In  addi-  the  added the  effect  employee r a t e s between p l a n t s ,  - 145  Table  Rank o f C o r r e l a t i o n  Variables  -  5  Coefficients:  Sawmills  Sawmills (survey).  Coast Sawmills 1970*  Coast Sawmills 1966-1970*  Pairs  of  Total total  employment/ production  3  1  4  Total total  employment/ shipments  2  4  6  Total local  employment/ shipments  6  6  5  Total total  production/ shipments  1  3  1  Total production/ l o c a l shipments  5  5  2  Total local  4  2  3  shipments/ shipments  *Source:  D.B.S. C a t a l o g u e N o . 3 5 - 0 0 3: Production, Shipments, and S t o c k s on Hand o f S a w m i l l s i n B r i t i s h Columbia.  -  and  d i f f e r e n t market  however:; t h a t are  the  local  and  account  chapter  were c o l l e c t e d a n d the  bulk  has  has  i n future  total  lead  i n turn w i l l  ate  i n that  defined;  mountain,  shipped simple  truck  trips  discussed  that  the  related  local  e v e n i n an  the  sawmill  study of  process,  of  func-  a site  and  markets  requirements.  effectively are  "local  market"  perhaps  fortun-  d e m a r c a t e d by  a v a r i e t y of  industry.  other  sea,  p r o d u c t s may  industry A  as  ostensibly  p e r f e c t l y adequate the  be  magnitude  trip and  movements, e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e  disposal.  Difficulties  Here  data  for local  i n data  would need t o q u a n t i f y  these  to waste  pated.  an  political barriers.  site,  rates  appropriate  employment a t  market i s w e l l  f r o m one  eration  how  V a n c o u v e r c a s e we  that  variability  from  relationship  identification  a reduction  noted  generation  traffic  14,  i s therefore  destined  d e p e n d u p o n how  i n the  the  and  to  shipments  I t was  as  truck  suggested improvements to the  possibility  percentage of  be  of  seen i n Figure  insignificant  r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t o t a l  can  was  characteristic.  This  This  I t seems,  t o t a l >local.. s h i p m e n t s . . ' i As  An  employment and  industry-wide  including  f o r the  plywood m i l l s .  between t o t a l  might  t r a n s p o r a t i o n modes.  least-related variables.  sawmills  the  -  t o t a l ' e m p l o y m e n t "and  shipments  tional  and  146  associated with  for periods also,  o f Jess  future research  than  measuring t r i p a week w e r e  should  be  able  gen-  anticito  establish  an  -  147  optimum t i m e u n i t t o be  used  variability  volumes  o f shipment  The the  definition  reliability  be  grouped  to  say t h e i r  and  their  market's  the  and  data,  s u c h as  trips  that firms  to should  (for transport  purposes)  and  i s only total  the c a p a b i l i t y  total  costs.  that i s  i n use  v a r i a b l e s - l a g s between  i n reducing  the  characteristics,  (to standardize  f o r the  a weak r e l a t i o n s h i p p l a n t employment.  production  p r o p o r t i o n o f shipments marketed  cant  collection  on  structure).  a l l , there  truck  data  I t appears  physical attributes  competitive  industry based  "an i n d u s t r y " i s i m p o r t a n t  to product  substitutability  tween, l o c a l  f o r each  of estimates.  according  Above  vening  of  -  and  locally  employment, t o e s t i m a t e  Inter-  shipments  - are  of within-site  be-  signifi-  unadjusted  local  and  trips.  - 148 -  CHAPTER V I I  A T E S T OF T H E - M A R K E T I N G  This of  local  shipped  chapter estimates the effects that  d e s t i n a t i o n have on t r u c k  Marketing  f a c t o r s , such  directly  with- t h e b a s i c  observed.  for  trip  trip  to retailers  a r e combined  discussed previously.  to estimate  The s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n  generation rates,  rates.  of production  or manufacturers,  p l a n t - s i z e model  the types  generation  as t h e p r o p o r t i o n  improvement i n the a b i l i t y is  MODEL  trip  An  generation  o f shipments,  so  rates  critical  i s a n a l y z e d i n some d e t a i l .  The  transportation  demands-ppec.iil<iartfeotfehe"x'tmisee 1 sfea-neOus"'-cate-  gory  a r e d e s c r i b e d on a d i s a g g r e g a t e d b a s i s i n  of plants  order  t o observe  distinctly  s p e c i a l market  characteristics lead  differentstypes of transport The  assembled  how  survey  demand.  o f V a n c o u v e r wood p r o d u c t s  a d a t a bank on t h e d e s t i n a t i o n s  plants  of truck  These d e s t i n a t i o n s were c l a s s i f i e d  into activities  in  of product  Tables  6 a n d 7.  centage o f t r i p s  The p e r c e n t a g e  t o each  6 and 7 r e s p e c t i v e l y . the  analysis  activity  These data  type  trips. as shown  and t h e p e r -  i s presented  i n Tables  form t h e raw m a t e r i a l f o r  of distribution, channel/trip  relationships.  to  generation  rate  KEY TO CUSTOMER TYPES  TABLE 6:  Cus tomer  SAW  Sawmill Number 1 8.333 2 38.318 3 31.210 4 15.517 5 18.033 6 3.086 7 72.535 8 1.705 9 11.111 10 44.444 11 12 52.632 li 15.385 14 14.433 15 20.657 16 17.391 17 18 65.517 19 40.909 20 12.340 2.312 Plywood and other 10.526 Panel 0.781 Mills  PLY  1.869 1.274  0.617  1.215 0.699  10.417 3.738 20.390 34.483 1.639 3.086 8.451 1.136 5.555 11.111 20.833 8.907 2.797 4.124 0.939  FAB  BOX  2.083  6.250 2.804  1.235  1.235  FURN  HAND  0.617  2.778 8.889 0.405 3.093 4.225  PRSV  6.383 10.983 37.735 10.588 2.105  13.793 4.546 6.383 20.809 3.774  1.277 0.578 9.434  4.211  5.172  5.556  1.852  0.568  0.568 8.333  7.273  Rl  R2  R3  R4  RX  8.333 31.776 21.656  13.542 11.215 12.739 8.621 14.754 27.037 5.634 26.705 30.556 31.111  7.292 5.608 4.459 8.621 4.918 1.852 4.930 14.773 2.778  13.542 0.935 1.274  29.167 3.738 3.822  27.869 4.321  16.393 9.259 0.704 14.773 19.444  16.393 28.395 7.747 22.727 19.444  4.444  0.810 2.797 1.031  2.797  4.196 2.062  9.524  4.255 1.887 1.053  5.263 21.094  3.252  0.813  1.563  MISC  27.586  4.762  62.698 0.909  MILL  P e r c e n t a g e o f T o t a l L o c a l T r i p s t o Each Customer Type  5.106 0.578 3.774 2.105  9.091 0.426 12.139  8.097 13.287 22.680 31.455 33.333 6.897 4.546 18.723 11.321 7.059 27.368 32.813  11.741 34.965 21.650 31.455 4.348 33.333 10.345 4.546 28.511 1.734 28.302  79.167 . 2.834 7.692 19.588 3.286 8.696 4.762 13.636 4.681  16.842 30.469  9.329 2.727  52.845  25.203  2.439  1.136  0.810 1.399 1.878 8.696  0.851 49.711 81.177 6.316 2.344 27.973 9.756 89.091  12.551 13.986 7.217 3.286 47.826 9.524 3.448 10.213 1.887 1.177 21.053 9.375  Const.  SAW  Sawmills  PLY  Plywood and P a n e l Mills  MILL  Sash, Door and Millwork Plants  FAB  Pre-fabricated b u i l d i n g plants  BOX  Wooden box and p a l l e t plants  FURN  Furniture plants  HAND  Wooden handle and turning industry  PRSV  Wood p r e s e r v i n g  MISC  Other types, nec  Rl  R e t a i l e r s (50% s o l d to consumers)  R2  R e t a i l e r s (50% s o l d to c o n s t r u c t i o n i n dustry)  R3  Office  R4  Other r e t a i l e r s mainly those who s e l l t o manufactu r e r s and r e t a i l e r s  RX  R e t a i l e r s which cannot be c l a s s i f i e d because o f l a c k of d a t a .  1.042 3.185  1.852 15.909  4.124 2.817 13.044 4.762 22.727 0.851 1.156 1.887 3.158 1.563  5.691  wholesalers  Const. C o n s t r u c t i o n  firms  KEY TO CUSTOMER TYPES  Table Customer Sawmill Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 .16 17 18 19 20 Plywood and ' other Panel Mills  SAW 8.306 53.093 38.188 13.762 18.037 1.523 74.973 - 0.922 24.47'.' 47.208 63.667 19.114 19.560 32.337 19.637 67.052 54.708 11.972 1.787 N.A. 15.438 0.304 0.105  PLY  1.407 1.418 0.001  1.172 0.889  7;  MILL 11.132 2.012 26.025 41.081 0.512 2.811 9.170 1.963 5.154 9.037 27.419 10.914 2.898 11.198 1.477  8.575 5.897  23.805 3.300 5.220 20.697  18.314 0.535  3.106  46.942  0.699  5.882  4.533  Percentage o f T o t a l L o c a l Quantity FAB 1.769  0.865  BOX  FURN  HAND  5.739 3.587  0.976 0.079  MISC  6.045 2.960  1.064  0.048  32.533  5.502  4.847  1.275  0.316  0.383 15.409  0.226 0.840 0.392  3.169 0.692  2.298  6.761  7.530  5.309  4.183 0.318 8.519  6.391 0.014  1.948  2.058 16.840  2,516  0.477  2.082  Rl  R2  R3  R4  RX  5.931 22.346 12.725  12.684 5.620 7.803 2.484 15.312 39.168 3.839 16.956 13.566 34.187  6.997 8.322 5.062 4.638 2.384 1.374 4.326 23.877 3.220  22.173 1.319 1.653  24.268 2.922 4.971  35.102 5.241  14.559 10.446 1.240 21.103 25.189  14.095 28.628 6.453 18.723 12.982  5.017  4.551 0.077  PRSV  0.488  SAW  Sawmill  PLY  Plywood and Panel Mill  MILL  Sash, Door and Millwork Plants  2.155  FAB  Pre-fabricated building plants  2.710  BOX  Wooden box and p a l l e t plants  FURN  Furniture plants  HAND  Wooden handle and turning industry  t o Each Customer Type  4.055 13.279 12.008 22.087 49.178 3.856 2.790 17.108  7.901 35.295 17.167 30.633 5.488 23.766 3.704 4.402 29.294 2.429  8.450 11.835 32.991  24.869 32.889  45.067  29.842  72.581 3.340 8.020 29.027 5.154 13.093 0.710 1.448 3.676  0.513  2.561  0.465 2.130 0.996 10.823  0.476 59.789 73.161 9.332 0.449 42.359 12.826 89.480  8.184 12.070 3.345 1.648 44.007 8.534 1.585  Const. 0.696  13.195  0.871 2.080 6.952 3.522  . PRSV  Wood preserving  MISC  Other types, nec  Rl  29.170 0.752 0.790  Retailers (50% sold to consumers  R2  0.075 29.267 " 1.124 10.930 3.517  Retailers (50% sold to construction industry)  R3  O f f i c e wholesalers  R4  Other r e t a i l e r s mainly those who s e l l to manufacturers and r e t a i l e r s  RX  Retailers which cannot be c l a s s i f i e d because of lack of data.  9.934  8.763  Const. Construction firm  c  -  Distribution  151 -  Channel - T r i p Generation Regression  A cursory sawmills  showed  tomer c o u l d  that  be d e f i n e d w h i c h  trips  from each p l a n t .  urers  and t r i p s  category  accounted  These a r e t r i p s  For the present,  f o rover  90% o f t r u c k  to other  manufactWithin  these  these  will  be  the percentage of a  i s added t o t h e p l a n t - s i z e r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n  premise  nel  are associated with  that different  types  of institution  different  trip  per  e m p l o y e e may v a r y  put  p e r e m p l o y e e , was d e f i n e d  production  between p l a n t s .  at the plant  productivity  rates.  that productivity  Another v a r i a b l e ,  a s P/E w h e r e P i s t o t a l  be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  r a t e s p e r employee., o t h e r  out-  annual  a n d E i s mean a n n u a l e m p l o y m e n t .  p e r employee should  generation  on  i n t h e chan-  generation  A l l o w a n c e w a s made f o r t h e f a c t  trip  cus-  shipments moving t o the r e t a i l / w h o l e s a l e  the  in  used by  o f immediate  range o f sub-categories:  examined s h o r t l y . monthly  categories  channels  to retail/wholesale activities.  groups a r e a wide  plant's  Analysis  scan of d i s t r i b u t i o n two b r o a d  Relationships;  High  increases  factors  being  equal. The shown i n T a b l e  correlation 8.  output p e r employee contribution resulting  matrix  In. a s t e p w i s e failed  became:  regression  four  variables i s  a n a l y s i s , annual  t o make a s i g n i f i c a n t  t o an e x p l a n a t i o n  equation  o f these  of the variance  (0.95 l e v e l )  i n Y^.  The  - 152 -  Table Correlation  Y  Y  l  x  l  ,x x  2  3  Matrix:  l  X  8  Revised Model  x  l  Variables  X  2  3  1 .0000 0.8425  1.oooo  0.2219  -0.0880  1.0000  -0.0099  -0.1019  0.3264  = X-^ ss  X  2  ~  X-. s*  local  truck  non-basic  trips  1.00.00  from sawmills  employment  % r e t a i l / w h o l e s a l e i nt h e l o c a l annual  lumber output per  market  employee  - 153  Y  = -12.295  x  R  + 0.355X  1  +  0.721X  S.E.(Y)  =  S.E.(a)  =9.095  15.588  0.134  x  S.E.(b )  =  0.094  local  truck  2  Y^ =  trips  p e r week f r o m  Xj| = n o n - b a s i c e m p l o y m e n t p l a n t - s i z e model. X  for  improvement  i n the estimation  larger values  o f Y^.  mal d i s t r i b u t i o n ,  The  although  v a r i a t i o n i n Y^  at  the expense o f accuracy  of  rates .  Y^,  a negative  gest  values  were  obtained  explained  value  generation  0.710  1  2  i s estimated  (145.8 and  (Figure  Y  =  9.509 +  has  to R  2  = 0 . 7 9 8) i s  large  generavalues  i n t h e c a s e o f one  87.33).  The  nor-  percentage  low t r i p  omitting  disrates  a more  i n the  o f a few  repeated,  =  0.4 89  0.599X  local  (X ) d i d not enter 0  shows a  t h e two  plant. lar-  following results  19):  percentage of t o t a l  wholesale  of trip  error variance  2 (r =  directly  18)  f o r plants with  a n a l y s i s was  o f Y^  r  i n the  (Figure  Because o f the i n f l u e n c e  The  The  as d e f i n e d  the improvement  of  tion  sawmills.  == p e r c e n t a g e o f l o c a l p r o d u c t s h i p p e d to retail/wholesale destinations.  2  A p l o t of the residuals tinct  2  =0.798  2  S.E.(b ) =  where:  -  1  quantity  shipped  the regression  to  retail/  a t t h e 95%  - 154 -  Figure 18: Residuals From Regression:Sawmills = -12.295+0.355X +0.721X where i = local trips Xi non-basic employment X = % retail-wholesale in local market 1  2  =  2  1 20  predicted  100  80  60  40  20  observed _j  -1 o  20  40  60  80  100  i  120  id/ hs  - 155 -  significance  level.  When f o r c e d i n t o  the equation,  the result  was:  Again simple  =  1  = -0.028 + 0.170X + .'0.62X  R  2  = 0.562  1  t h e improvement i n e s t i m a t i o n s linear  generation model  Y  regression)  rates.  (Figure  56.1).  distinguish  mill  outlier  1=  38.3,  has c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  which  I t has s i g n i f i c a n t l y  than other  mills.  This  I t i s a purely  lower  m i g h t be  high  other  i n c o a s t a l B.C.  the  species  is  produced  i n this  survey  mill  i n this  specialize  s i t u a t e d on t h e F r a s e r  town V a n c o u v e r . diseconomies labour tuted  value  survey  commodity  R i v e r some  forcapital (c)  A greater  A more  with mills likely  location - i t i s  the urban 30 m i l e s  l o c a t i o n may  labour  cedar  However, o t h e r  of urbanization, the higher  f o r example.  mill;  compared  i n cedar.  outside  A non-urban,  productivity per  because;  f o r low p r o d u c t i v i t y i s the m i l l ' s  only  (Y^--  cedar-producing  lumber i s a r e l a t i v e l y  reason  trip  i t from t h e others:  (b)  included  rather  was m o s t m a r k e d f o r h i g h e r  r e v e a l one d i s t i n c t  particular  (a) employee  (using m u l t i p l e  The r e s i d u a l s f r o m t h e m u l t i p l e - r e g r e s s i o n  19)  This  2  area east  o f down-  be d e v o i d  costs  input  and i t  o f some  of land  m i g h t be  and  substi-  investment. This  providing  i t s own  discussed  earlier,  mill  i s the only  case o f a  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o the market. the firm  controlling  sawmill For reasons  the transportation  - 156 -  Figure  19!  Residuals from Regression: Sawmills (without two largest trip generators)  see text  10  20  30  40  50  60  id/  hs  - 157 -  of  i t s product  available  has o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o i n c r e a s e  t o other With  load  factors not  firms.  a l a r g e r number o f p l a n t s  i n this  sample, i t  w o u l d b e p o s s i b l e t o u s e dummy v a r i a b l e s t o r e p r e s e n t characteristics, transportation  especially  those  relating  to location  makes  some i m p r o v e m e n t i n o u r a b i l i t y  generation so,  rates.  channels  and  ownership.  The i n t r o d u c t i o n o f a d i s t r i b u t i o n able  these  In order  t o understand  available to sawmills  will  channel  to predict why  this  varitrip  should  be  be.discussed  i n more  Relationships:  Sawmills  detail.  Distribution  Channel-Trip  Generation  The s a w m i l l - c e n t e r e d in  Figure  was b a s e d tation. which  The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  on b o t h The l e f t  normally  of bark, milling ing  20.  observation  bucking (cutting  trimming  to appropriate  o r open  market.  are  sometimes performed  there  spatial  lengths  standard  at separate  used expec-r  activities  - stripping  the logs  f o r the sawmill, sizes  o f lumber),  sawdry-  further demanded  on  d r y i n g and p l a n i n g ,  sites.  As t h e s t r u c t u r e  t o one o f fewer-and  separation activities  are s t i l l  the  t o the dimensions  classes of operation,  the industry i s changing  this  and a p r i o r i  contains site  customers  a i r ) , and p l a n i n g , w i t h  and p l a n i n g  the  of  Two  o f the data  i n one s a w m i l l  the l o g into  system i s defined  of sawmill  side of the chart  occur  (either k i l n  cutting,  activity  larger plants,  i s decreasing.  a l a r g e number o f s m a l l p l a n t s whose  However, foothold  - 158  Figure  20:  Product Sawmill  -  Linkages, A c t i v i t y System  /  Logging  Plywood M i l l Sash, door, work p l a n t s  (252) mill(254)  Prefabricated b u i l d i n g mfg.  Debarking, Bucking  Wooden b o x  Sawmilling  Drying, Planing  (254)  mfg. (256)  Wood t u r n i n g industry  (259)  Preserving  (259)  Miscellaneous  (259)  Furniture  mfg.(260)  Pulp m i l l  (271)  Retail/wholesale (626) Construction  Products By-products (252)  S.I.C.  code  (1970)  (400)  - 159 -  in  t h e market depends on t h e i r  ized product o r service. surveyed trip  provides  market:  lumber  Such an  can only  i t serves  only  provided  erally  prefer  struction  because o f i t s poor  industry, especially residential firms  power i n t h e m a r k e t i n g of  operating  nearly  channel  unit mitigates  inventories.  These  eration  f o r those m i l l s  rates  factors  Other small  the  service turning  dimensions ior  include  bulk  - fencing  since  they  exten-  and most  construction i s  character-  are devoid  ordering  of  and and  towards high  providing  scale on-site  trip  gen-  whose  custom  f o r example.  a s p e c i a l i z e d product t h e raw m a t e r i a l f o r cut to final-use c u t lumber,  are significant  and  Many o f t h e s e  have c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s i m i l a r t o those o f sash, work p l a n t s  The  customers.  o r wood o t h e r w i s e  products,  The  and r e m a n u f a c t u r e r s  materials,  gen-  mills  and whose s m a l l n e s s  those which produce  industry,  decorative  mills  small  a l l of which  market i s dominated by c o n s t r u c t i o n  or  by w h i c h  contribute  which  credit rating.  construction,  against  i s a  d i r e c t t o the con-  r e t a i n a share o f the market.  i z e d b y many s m a l l  This  and  The l a r g e r m i l l s  product  s i o n o f c r e d i t i s one o f t h e means wholesalers  use.  sites  by t h e major s a w m i l l s  not t o market t h e i r  industry  i n terms o f  construction  form the core o f the surveyed p l a n t s .  high  extraordinary  be e x p l a i n e d  c u t f o r immediate o n - s i t e  not normally  a special-  w h i c h has an e x t r e m e l y  p e r employee.  f o r transportation  plant's  service  rate  t o supply  An example i s one o f t h e p l a n t s  "miscellaneous"  generation  demand the  under  ability  trip  door,  inter-  firms and  mill-  attractors'from  -  m a j o r s a w m i l l s and is  produce  i n c o n s t r u c t i o n and  industry  160  or through  a p r o d u c t whose main l o c a l  i s either  local  the  larger mills.  shares the  i n F i g u r e 20  by  importance  of  of  the  market  importance  buildings,  extended  survey  naturally  are  6 and  trips Other  to  a  other  complete  significantly  linked  to  i t e m i z e d market indicate Second  to remanufacturers manufacturers  in  are  constitute because  between s m a l l e r s a w m i l l s  activities  such  as  pre-fabri-  making, wood-turning, transportation  include research into  the  distinct  f o r most s a w m i l l s surveyed,  furniture  or  shown as  sawmill customer types  and  use  wholesalers.  7, w h i c h  of interaction  m i l l w o r k p l a n t s and  cating  are not  they  to millwork plants.  insignificant  and  linkages to other sawmills.  i n shipments  an  and  Tables  p l a n t f o r major  significance  those  but  marketed d i r e c t l y  retailers  These s m a l l m i l l s activity  -  these  study  etc.  An  would  l i n k a g e s between  small  plants. Construction the  chart of product  supply of are not of  classifying  Unlike  plywood to s i t e  physical  to  which  this  by  examining  although  f o r the sales.  i s the the  and  the main  on  sources  This raises  the  the  classification  of  i n the  problem channel.  f i r m s a c t as  an  consumer o f wood p r o d u c t s  possession of case  separately i n  construction industry  many c o m m e r c i a l  between producer  taking  classified  retail/wholesaleinstitutions  manufacturers,  mediary out  linkages,  lumber and  direct mill  firms are  the  product.  local  market  The can  be  of retail/wholesale  interwith-  extent judged used  in  -  Tables  6 and  7.  One  of the  tween types  of r e t a i l e r  done by  firm.  buying  the  for resale  hold  consumption..  transportation they  tions is The  less those  the  prior  as  agents  to a c q u i s i t i o n  individual  less  "fine"  b o u g h t by  the  function  to final  retailer.  source  of  w o u l d be  users..  have  U.  S.  markets,  recently  of  establishing  their  This  tant major markets.  sales  The  house-  commodi-  and  in  instituof  goods  retailing.  unit  greater  prices  wholesaler  located  frequently per-  the  sort,  i s the  spatial  market  i f shipments role  thus  at a  higher were  performed  i n the e a s t e r n  this wholesale  case,  and the  by  made the  Canadian  larger manufacturers  branches  In either  per  for  a commodity  possible  to take over  own  the  sorting  occurs  lower  a distinct  although the  tended  commodi-  distinction  by^retailers  and  of postponing  than  such  the w h o l e s a l e r n o r m a l l y have  packaging, the  other  t r a d e buy  this  as  industrial,  users, to  this  that which  l a r g e w h o l e s a l e r s o f wood p r o d u c t s and  to  purpose  for personal or  of  be-  of wholesaling  i n connection with  consumers;  than  bought by  individual  unit price  directly  or professional  significance  assuring the manufacturer per  type  to r e t a i l e r s ,  general public  The  a d i s t a n c e from  forms  amount and  demand i s t h a t w h o l e s a l e r s s o r t  commodities  than  to the  other than  bulk,  at  buy  normally  for distinguishing  E s t a b l i s h m e n t s i n the r e t a i l  ties  ties  for resale  or i n acting  transactions.  criteria  i s the  institutional  wholesalers,  -  Wholesaling i s defined for this  merchandise  commercial,  161  in  B.C.  function  warehouses existence of  at a  by  dis-  - 162 -  wholesaling  activity  market permits  with  the use o f r a i l  which n a t u r a l l y lowers In production, ally may  o f B.C.:  of reaching  remain  direct truck, i s normally  o f demand  traffic  at the point  The w h o l e s a l e r ' s  may b e o n e o r s e v e r a l retailer,  of production  or  providing  t r a n s p o r t i n g i t t o the market,  i s because  and  t h a n was  the case  transactions  information  to the  o f t h e commodity  taking  only  and a r r a n g i n g  ownership  and making payment t o the manufacturer.  is  declining.  are  market  direct to the r e t a i l e r  ectly  from t h e m i l l  or other  small  f o r the product,  ( a t l e a s t i n t h e wood p r o d u c t s  Increasingly  transactions and other  or through  pos-  and  volume  the role industry)  transportation  end users e i t h e r  a local  and  i t s transportation,  customers  the wholesaler  suf-  regular  c r e d i t t o the r e t a i l e r  of  i n the  market has a  providing  the l o c a l  truck  t h e most  This  role i n provincial  taking physical possession  In  region  and more s o r t i n g o f t h e commodity  of:  o f t h e commodity  demands  f o r wood p r o d u c t s  distinct  of  essenti-  the urban  the market.  no one s p a t i a l l y  of rail  takes place  session  may  v o l u m e o f demand t o s u p p o r t a l a r g e  movement  rates.  closer to the point  market outside  mode o f t r a n s p o r t ,  diversity  final  transportation,  generation  Vancouver and i t s region)  the spatial  above.  trip  to the  the nature of transportation  F o r t h e B.C.  e c o n o m i c a l means  ficient  o r water  t h e case o f markets  some o t h e r  rest  proximity  the role of the wholesaler  change.  plus  of  truck  t h e same, a l t h o u g h  (Greater  greater  sales  dir-  distribution  163  -  outlet  owned o r  c o n t r o l l e d by  noted previously, a r e a do their  perform  customers.  stocks  and  available for  an  the  wholesalers  an  manufacturer.  o f wood p r o d u c t s  important role i n providing They are  increased  f r o m any  -  one  local wholesaling  also  a source of  v a r i e t y of mill.  The  activity  As  was  i n the  local  credit  to  information,  commodities over most i m p o r t a n t  are  those  i n the  those  customers construction  industry. Shipments records  as  sales  distribution are  of  contractors  to wholesalers, trips  available.  This  channel structures s h i p m e n t s by  to  is lost does not  i n causal  a wholesaler  ments t o  retail  or  foothold  i n the  market i s  services  negate  the  as  tion.  expected Trip  relative mill  to  the  products.  wholesalers" possession cial  — of  be  sites.  information  rates  the  with  of  a sale  with  to to  and  and have  and  Wholesalers their  slips  distribution  expected  transactions  m a i n t a i n e d by  to provide  generation  since  s t i l l  o r p r o d u c t s more c l o s e l y i n l i n e a l s o be  use  movewhose  ability  extended  good  f o r s u c h ;&n . a c t i v i t y < may  i s probably  those wholesalers the  transactions  product and  they  other  most t r u e who  sell,  services  do but  not do  for  be-high for  "office  take  physical  arrange  mentioned  might  transporta-  mean f o r a l l r e t a i l / w h o l e s a l e o u t l e t s This  to  credit,  customer needs,  service of  plant  the  driver delivery  construction  such  on  unless  might  d i f f e r e n t from  a p p e a r on  information  analysis  characteristics  provide  and  usually  finan-  above.  Office  - 164 wholesalers nificant,  serving only  although  the local  many r e t a i l e r s  office wholesaling  market a r e n o t very and w h o l e s a l e r s  f u n c t i o n s where t h e need  may  arises.  sigperform  Most  l o c a l w h o l e s a l i n g i s "with, s t o c k s " , i . e . , the w h o l e s a l e r takes  p h y s i c a l and ownership p o s s e s s i o n  and  maintains  are  likely  ing  the inventory, given  be  an i n v e n t o r y .  In variable tailer  summary,  - i n this  case  estimate  ufacturing  site.  of d i s t r i b u t i o n a partial  the relative  channels  As e x p l a i n e d e a r l i e r the theoretical  o f t r a n s p o r t demand,  ectly  related  t o shipment s i z e direct  the following  to statisfrom  a man-  trip  of firms  enables  at a trip's  des-  study,  i n the chapter  of a  marketing  frequencies  and t h e nature i s examined  are dir-  of transport i n more  detail  section.  Over s h o r t e r time a retailer  of the r e -  of trip-making at i t s  foundation  relationship  Shipment S i z e and Truck  less,  i n this  these  marketing  analysis of the structure  t o t h e frequency  model  in  of a  importance  and t h e behaviour  origin.  leav-  functions can also  t h e number o f v e h i c l e movements  i s related  This  those  - does improve o u r a b i l i t y  A more d e t a i l e d  inventory  sort.  e x p l a n a t i o n o f why t h e a c t i v i t y  which provided  than  therefore, inclusion  tination  supply.  and weight  that the storage  an a l l o c a t i o n  and w h o l e s a l e r  tically  Shipments which e n t e r  t o be o f g r e a t e r b u l k  associated with  o f t h e commodity  i s less  Capacity:  Sawmill  Shipments  p e r i o d s , s a y o f one month o r  reliant  on any one m a n u f a c t u r e r  than  -  is  the  price  re-manufacturer. changes, or  rather  than  of  a production  Higher  pairs  locational  and  l i n k a g e s between  plywood r e t a i l  re-manufacturers  with  local  the  the  to  and  At  other products space.  The by  leads  to  between as  stronger  groups of  pairs. lumber  t o a common t e n d e n c y their  sources  c h a r a c t e r i z e d by  retail  of  lower  than  for  supply.  land  values  is typical  costs of  (less  o u t l e t s , wood p r o d u c t s  - usually higher  a very  ordering  given  because:  s a l e s volumes  leads  per  of  locations. (2)  course  inventory costs  market-orientation of  g r e a t e r space a v a i l a b l e f o r storage  offset  frequ-  re-manufacturers  former  locate close to t o be  products,  a volume and  retailers  retailers  locations,  These l o c a t i o n s tend  retail  for favorable  schedule.  have lower  of manufacturers  i n combination  at  re-manufacturing  opposed t o manufacturers  and  manufacturer  lumber or plywood than  individual  and  can'afford to wait  manufacturers  (1)  This,  -  encourage s a l e s i n - s u b s t i t u t e  ency p r e d e s t i n e d by  unit  He  s h i p from the  Local  165  turnover  i n sales,  t r u c k - l o a d s ) LTL  i n c r e a s e s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and the  rise  s a l e s may  be  from metal shipment  and  in retail  maximized  and  plastic  low  EOQ  items  s t o r i n g wood p r o d u c t s  high  than  valued  the  (economic order  decreased  be by  The  ordering costs,  latter but  a t l o c a t i o n s where  strong  substitutes,  must e i t h e r  or  with  for inventory  shipments.  land values  and  -  compete  competition  the high  for  costs of  quantity)  are  space LTL  likely  -  to be s a c r i f i c e d  forlike  166 -  advantages  of lowering  industry  costs. A consequence of. b e h a v i o u r w i t h tories  a n d EOQ  provide  their  urers are  appears t o be a tendency own t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  as w e l l ,  makes o f p r i v a t e the  reluctance  trucks  notably  a by  of the remanufacturer  by  which,  transportation.  is  not present,  of  the prices  Once  Of  course,  this  f o rthis  can probably  retail/wholesale  urers  do n o t . Tables  factors  activities  fixed  variable  offcosts  i n cases where  outlay  equal  made. The  from  on t h e c a r r i e r ' s  relevant  sources vehicles.  to the extent to  own t r u c k s  of total  PMT  t o t h e sum  f o reach t r i p  6 and 7 a t t h e b e g i n n i n g  t o compare t h e p e r c e n t a g e  costs  i s that  be b e t t e r  than minimizing  argument i s only  which  t h e de-  transportation  i s t o r e d u c e t h e number o f t r i p s load  to  t o o w n PMT, t h e r e i s  The r e a s o n  has a t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  supply by maximizing  used  units.  The r e - m a n u f a c t u r e r ,  of  be  the r e t a i l e r  m a k i n g o r t h e number o f  charged by t h e c a r r i e r  here  factors  has assumed s u b s t a n t i a l  inventories  of  incentive  of trip  a s we h a v e s e e n ,  by reducing  to  t o commit h i m s e l f  t o reduce  time.  o w n i n g PMT t h e r e t a i l e r  costs set  i n h i s incentive  consumed o v e r  inven-  f o rd e l i v e r y t o h i s customers and  e c o n o m i z i n g on t h e r a t e  ton-miles  Other  the use that  h a s b e e n made b y t h e r e t a i l e r  reduction  f o rretailers  carriage.  o w n e r s h i p o f one o r two heavy h a u l a g e cision  to  (PMT) a n d f o r r e - m a n u f a c t -  t o use f o rh i r e o r c o n t r a c t  important  respect  and re-manufact-  of this local  chapter quantity  may of  - 167  product mill  with  there  of quantity than  the percentage of t o t a l  to various  expectdd,  distribution  channel  i s a general  tendency  shipped  to other  tend  t o be A  shipments strates  l a r g e r than  from a l l sawmills  shipment-sizes  to other  11,000-12,000  millwork in  sawmills  FBM.  shipment-size  on t h e p a r t  with  work  inventory  costs:  raw m a t e r i a l s  t o manufact-  frequencies  local  of a l l  customers  grouping  of  around  6000-9000  FBM  situation  a slightly  plants  and  exists for  greater  This  demon-  and r e -  grouping  marginal  i s due  to  dif-  their  transportation costs f o r  i n contrast to sawmills,  and products  higher  destinations.  categories.  of millwork  each  As  a strong  A similar  greater willingness to sacrific lower  t o be  of retailers  21 shows  p l a n t s , although  the lower  ference  to other  to their  from  f o r the percentage  i . e .shipments  the d i f f e r e n t behaviours Figure  trips  participants.  comparison of shipment-size  manufacturers.  around  local  manufacturers  the percentage of t r i p s ,  urers  -  require  indoor  most  mill-  storage  and  more c a r e f u l h a n d l i n g . Figure being 22a, shows  designed the size  22 i s c o m p o s e d o f t h r e e  for cross-reference with distribution  9000-11000  concentrations FBM  the other  part  two.  Figure  of r e t a i l / w h o l e s a l e shipments,  marked d i f f e r e n c e s between s i z e  significant  p a r t s , each  categories.  The  a r e i n t h e s i z e s 5000-8000  (Figure 22a).  most and  Figure 2i: number of trips  Number of Trips by Size of Shipment'. Sawmills (a) to sash, door and millwork plants  (b) to other sawmills  50 _ 40 30 20  size of shipment (mbm)  10 0  <l  13  15  17  19  >20  Figure  20^number  22  2 2 b : T r u c k s o w n e d by retailers: frequency of t r u c k g v w  of  retailers 15 '  22a jShipments  number of  to  retailers  trips -  140  .  120  .  100  .  j  7  10  ° gvw  -  20  -  30  -  40  2 2 c : C a p a c i t y of lumber  r  M  - 50  r~M ~ 60  -  r  70  gvw J—I - 80  .  60  .  40  .  largest truck  trucksi  _ _  incomplete probable  80  of  data;  scale  economy  j  j mbm 20  I  0  2  4  6  8  10  12  14  s i z e of s h i p m e n t 17  19  >20  16  18  20  (mbm) fd/hs  -  Figure capacity  of  22c  presents  t r u c k s " by  (GVD)  the  retail  the  f o l l o w i n g chapter,  of  the  sawmills  mation: of  survey,  (a)  of  some s l i g h t  omies  of  the of  guide  be  asked of  each truck 2 2c  scale.  analysed  c a p a c i t i e s than  d i f f e r e n c e i s so  the  owned and  of  i n more d e t a i l  in  trucks smaller  do  t o whom  FBM  have s l i g h t l y  m i n o r i t has  infor-  relationship is  technological  ones p e r  any  capacity  i n fact there to  1  following  (b)  shows a l i n e a r  lumber Part  each r e t a i l e r  n o n - l i n e a r i t y due Larger  to  Gross V e h i c l e Weight.  v a r i a b l e s , although  bably  weight  a rough  which w i l l  Figure  t w e e n t h e s e two  -  s u r v e y e d made s h i p m e n t s t h e  GVW  each truck.  170  proecon-  higher  u n i t of  been o m i t t e d  be-  GVW,  but  f o r the  sake  simplicity. Figure  retailers' that  the  ments  22b  shows t h e  frequency  l a r g e s t t r u c k , w h i c h was  largest truck  from sawmills,  more l i k e l y  t o be  the  s o r t has  product  used  smaller  GVW's o f  s e l e c t e d on  i s most l i k e l y  while  of  t o be  the  used  for  v e h i c l e s , i f any,  each premise shipare  for retail/wholesale delivery after  taken place  at  the  retail/wholesale  inventory. Figures estimate  the  FBM  22b  capacity  wholesalers.  The  and  trucks,  plus  4 4 0 0 0 GVW  and  greatest  22c of  may  be  used i n conjunction  v e h i c l e s owned by  concentrations  (Figure  22b)  are  which have  retailer around  to and  26000  respective  G r o s s V e h i c l e W e i g h t (GVW): w e i g h t o f l o a d when l o a d e d t o w e i g h t c a p a c i t y l i m i t .  vehicle  -  capacities the  histograms,  ment  sizes  shipments to  size  this  to other  coincides with  FBM  retailers holds  sawmills  shipments. a r e below  approximate  FBM  account  f o r almost  Were  these  percentages  that  those  t r u c k s below  city  and m e r e l y i s that  activities,  shipments  to  .analysis  between  truck  obviously made  to less-  vehicles  be  a  below  surveyed. possibility  loaded  t o capart •  However, t h e among  retail/  c o n t r a s t t o the case  re-manufacturing  capacities  activity  available  has a s i g n i f i c a n t customers  i n greater detail  of  of shipment-sizes  and o t h e r system.  the role  i n influencing  cial  a brief  trip  discussion  (commercial) The g e n e r a l l y  to retailers  effect  has  i n transportation  and  on t h e number  o f manufacturers.  acteristics sites,  be  of differences  i n the t o t a l  t o these  gating  11,000  Shipments  trips.  o f the frequency  the importance  institutions lower  tends  t r u c k o f 15000  a r e common  i n striking  for  re-manufacturers.  An emphasized  A  might  frequent  LTL shipments  wholesale  as  of the largest  there, would GVW  GVW  and  40% o f a l l s h i p m e n t s  15000  ship-  i n shipments  o f lumber.  closer,  make more  truck  T h e 6,000  l b s . GVW.  FBM  frequent  n o t as dominant 8%  seen.from  as t h e i n d u s t r y  significant  15000  can be  21, a l t h o u g h  i s unknown  About  4000  As  t h e most  or contract carriage.  4000  behaviour  i n Figure  (Figure 22a), although  than-4000  evidence  -  a n d 1 0 0 0 FBM.  categories are also  retailers  GVW  6000  f o r sawmills  use f o r - h i r e  FBM  of  o f about  171  Before  wholesalers of  trips  investi-  of retail/wholesale  attraction  rates  o f the factors  to  charcommer-  influencing  - 172 -  trip  generation  rates  Distribution  at non-sawmill  Channel - T r i p  sites  Generation  Other Manufacturing We trip  generation  marketing should sion ing  have seen t h a t rates  Sites  the s t a t i s t i c a l  sawmills  manufacturers  as t h e y  on a p l a n t - b y - p l a n t  influence  structure  sites  transport  rates, which  butes o f firms structure  and f u n c t i o n s  bulk  since  the market-  i n this  products  discussion wood  the e f f e c t of  pro-  industrial  generation  and  on t h e urtigue - a t t r i -  The c o m p l e x i t y level  discus-  of channel  of disaggregation  ren-  regression  t h e most i n t e r e s t i n g a s p e c t s  and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  demand w o u l d  be  A l l the p l a n t s i i n t t h e following discussion are  on o r c l o s e  t o the Fraser  of the sawmills  Millwork R i a n t : plant  focus  at this  l a r g e l y meaningless  concealed.  This  i n turn  a  demand.  approach based on a m u l t i p l e  physical distribution  the  basis,  c h a n n e l s on t r i p  i n the sample.  t h e more f o r m a l  located  illustrate  and d i s t r i b u t i o n  attraction  of  The  the d e t a i l e d a t t r i b u t e s o f miscellaneous  manufacturing  of  this  group o f wood  A q u a l i t a t i v e approach i s taken  model  why  surveyed.  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of a miscellaneous  ders  estimation  v a r i a b l e , and i thas been e x p l a i n e d  below considers,  ducts  Relationships:  can be improved by i n c o r p o r a t i n g  be so f o r t h e twenty  because  i s warranted.  River  i n t h e same  area  as  surveyed.  branch o f major  f o r e s t products  i s o f average s i z e f o r those producing  company. mouldings,  -  doors, the  etc. but  is distinct  n o n - l o c a l market.  d e c i s i o n by market but  available  and  i n order  The  marketing  result  rate  sawmills mately 10%  day,  the the  per  day  local  trip  Millwork  Plant:  of the parent  the of  p l a n t markets local  two  trips  brokers  With  the  claim  per  and  day.  Most l o c a l  some s t o c k s t e n d  no  d a t a was  the market which  attraction from  local  market,  how-  trip  of  per  1000  third 36  consequently  generates  shipments  Shipments  t o be  larger  although this  are  FBM.  of  the  employees)  those  i s the  supplied  i n 3 0 0 0 0 FBM  truck loads.  As  previous  plant,  non-local sector of  average  to wholesalers  than  provided to support  an  on  through  i t .  i n the the  direct  manufacturers The  i s n o n - l o c a l i s i n the P r a i r i e s  this  approxionly  than  a b o u t one  local  Because  i s a b o u t one less  more  more o f i t s p r o d u c t i o n  (75%)  construction site and  the  (lumber  producers.  trip  (13 i n s t e a d  substantially  to construction sites.  retaining to  market  on  local  marketing  company) o f  frequently being  Independent.  the  the  local  i n : t h e month s u r v e y e d .  employment a t the p r e v i o u s p l a n t this  the  1 0 0 0 0 FBM)  generation rate  shipment-size  marketing  beyond  a typical  averaging  production i s sold  for  company p r o d u c t s  customers  p l a n t has  a  through  organizations of other  (other branches  of monthly  ever,  to reach  of  mainly  t o compete on  the product  l o a d shipments  5 trips  not  f o r the main  i s that this  (truck  i n t h a t i t produces  company:  to d i s t r i b u t e  organization  limited  -  This i s the r e s u l t  the parent  plywood)  173  case  25%  and of  market  of  is the  -  causes trip is  the  trip  though the  for this  Construction  great  year.  millwork sites,  Millwork  rent  Plant:  or  at  the  blem with  this  the  than  that  the  installs  also  that,the  this  of  two  rates  ranging  type of  zero  between production  manufacturers  and  the  construction  marketing.  Production,  d e p e n d e n t on  a v a i l a b l e on  of  is  plant  three  cur-  trip  trips  i n others.  f i r m i s the  cases  throughout  highly  from highs  almost  previous  them at  Data were  significant  rates  method o f  i s therefore  The  two  generation  contracts.  rates  and  but  i n some m o n t h s t o  ishing  plant  is  site  pending  Independent.  for this  r e l y i n g s o l e l y on  generation day  reason  products  activity  higher  d i f f e r e n c e between  variation in trip  The  t o be  firm.  d i f f e r e n c e : between t h i s the  -  attraction rate  generation,  minor  174  per  Another  difficulty  of  pro-  distingu-  off-site  (installation)  plant  been mentioned  employees. Sawmill fore;  ( c o n s t r u c t i o n ) :•  it.processes  dimensions  and  generation  rates  locally  ships are  since  a l l the  product  vious  millwork  plant  attributes inventory trip and  of  portation  produced  them d i r e c t t o very  high,  e x h i b i t the  variability at  the  site,  during over  construction than  locally.  periods  the  i n other  end of  year. words,  sites.  and  trip  these  construction  The  Trip  the  pre-  generation  almost' the use:  cut  attraction rates This  distinctive  and  be-  lumber i n t o customer  which perform  f u n c t i o n between m i l l rates  has  greater  i s marketed  those plants  generation great  This  demand f o r  entire are  high  activity trans-  i s undampened by  the  -  performance  175  -  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of  intervening  retail/wholesale  functions. Piling  manufacturer:  servatives, utilities located and is  find  and  by  rail  their  and  and  water; last  case of  the  the  channel  i s performed  demand f o r t r a n s p o r t construction  Lumber and and  two  as  it  so  few  for  This  market to scale  the  the  production  on  the  treating plant's  are  inventory  low.  As  in  site  and  the  a d i r e c t . f u n c t i o n of  the  level  the  and logs  forward  of  trips  Treated  above,  a variety  This  own  LTL,  plant  and  of  to  and  Materials  own  the  the  because  can  substitutes of  the  economies  of  attracted  plants,  purchased  product  trip  most,  are  Other  To  of  north-  inability  kiln  lumber  competition  because of  account.  the  probably  non-wood  the  dry  has  Canada and  substantial  treating process. are  finds  linkages,  process.  from sawmills  the  Preserving:  i n western  f r o m w h o l e s a l e r s who  these latter  rates  manufacturing  production,,  plant  during  Columbia,  in  availability  the  ership  is  transportation  at  lack  to  acted  activity  British  most  for  function  s u p p o r t more p r o d u c e r s  i n the  this  the  competitors  attributed to much o f  pre-  construction  firms,  opposed to  b a c k w a r d and  U.S.A.  with  activity.  of  be  generation  i s again  varied  western  of  value,  i n exterior construction.  has  i n heavy  regions low  Plywood Treating  plywood,  uses  of  trip  treated  S i n c e most of  less-developed  i s bulky  pillings,  main uses  the  of  and  p u b l i c works.  i n the  product  poles  the  trips and  are  retail  extent  attraction rate  attrown-  that to  the  -  plant  i s higher  than  w e r e p u r c h a s e d on As the. p r o d u c t the  local  is  of  own  with  uses  the  the  the  stocked  locally;  Mill:  The  the  the  s h i p m e n t s may  although  are  more  sig-  and  loca-  identity  region.  plywood  most d r a m a t i c  and/or s h i n g l e  truck  trip  When t h i s possibility  urban  customer that  region.  appears  to  at  t h e r e f o r e , be  mill.  This  North-West of  British  Columbia because of  western  red  the  product.  ity  of  mills  the  U.  S.  the  the  However, least  be  properly  and  the  For  the  plant  per  day)  L a m i n a t e d beam p l a n t ; structured  trip  2 0 0 0 0 FBM  a variety of of  States  traditional  the  over  mill  This  an  mill  each t r i p .  a dispersed,  The  the  of  coast  high in  quality  probably  of  the  -  a  some two  and  the  manufacturing the  major-  market i s  generation  has  a  of  rate  fairly or  some m e r e l y unpredictable  in  isll-ow 170.  simply  three  trips  product:,ho'wever i s u s e d  purposes,  small>  case of  employment s i z e o f  also  attraction pattern  between  i s peculiar to  and  and  90%  trip  i s the  skills  surveyed,  despite  construction  rate  existence  activity,  Consequently  t h a n one  the  discrepancy  activity  United  cedar  in this  case of  generation  Pacific  Because  to  of  "local".  shake  of  urban  plywood  always e x i s t s the  such  s i z e and  day  destinations,  refers  l u m b e r -and  plant  (less  materials  a s u b s t a n t i a l amount  consumed o u t s i d e  treated  i f a l l raw  l u m b e r and  again  there  much o f  plant,  to non-local  customer i n the  is finally  Shingle  piling  uses"  product  labelled  r a t e w o u l d be  for treated  a wholesaler,  -  account.  i s shipped  n i f i c a n t . "Local tion  the  176  for  decorative. demand  for  per  -  the product,  177  -  the market supports  l a m i n a t e d beams.  The  few  of  five  trips  bulk  to p i l i n g  per  day.  of  the  commodity  between t h e two  per  This  1 7 0 , 0 0 0 FBM  with  an  average  This  plant specializes sales  of  branches  as  an  of  distant  outlet  markets  of  the  truck-to-air  per  vey,  and  which  (b) o f  move b y  f o r the  forest  Evidence the  fact  western  Canada.  the.average This  firm  size  i s also  are:  value of  "miscellan-  year  25%  of  very  compared  uses  sawmills. (primarily)  products  companies  f o r the  importance  the  (a)  a  twenty  of  sales  Other  the  total  non-  force  and  interesting  the p l a n t has  shipment encountered  approximately  i n the  the sur-  shipments  n e a r l y a l l are t o other regions i n  In spite of each the  and  productivity  t h a t 50%  employment comprises  truck,  low  employee per  larger  comes f r o m  the  shipped  t h e e m p h a s i s on  3 0 0 , 0 0 0 FBM  product.  freight  and  determinant  r e v e a l e d i n the  specialization  only  t o be  i s- i n c l u d e d i n the  employed o u t s i d e the Lower M a i n l a n d .  results  generation weight  fragility  i n d i s t a n t m a r k e t and  of the  f o r the  production worker is  about  dis-  products.  This m i l l  product.  employee o f  the  The  category of p l a n t s because of quality  of similar  i s obviously a significant  Cedar S i d i n g M i l l ;  high  trip  p r o d u c t s , l a m i n a t e d beams t e n d  t r u c k to the n o n - l o c a l market.  eous"  variable  Although  by  modal s p l i t  manufacturing  truck shipment p a t t e r n i s widely  t r i b u t e d w i t h a mean t h r o u g h - h i g h l y rate  plants  of  the  shipment d i s t a n c e s  involved,  consignment i s o n l y about-200  o n l y case  of  a wood p r o d u c t s  FBM.  manufacturer,  -  other  than  paper m i l l s ,  provide  site  themanufacturer  manner s i m i l a r the  (page 6 5 ) •  Inter-city  regions  organise  inter-city  both  handling  the  and  organizes  procedure  local,  specific  shipments at the  customer  on  another,  to test  highway  for  generation  strongly  or himself  confirmed  there  are  (b) market,  the  used  in  to  can  minimize  total  transport-  (given the c o n s t r a i n t s  grouped  as  For  this  f a r as  s h i p m e n t s on  survey,  the! h y p o t h e s e s  rates.  siding  possible  one  and  about  truck,  generation  a high  rates,  and  i t is long-  significance  H o w e v e r , some f a c t o r s  appear  to  might  be  they  value  commodity o f  i s a strong possibility  shipments w i l l  as  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n which might have  Given  a  etc.  i n future research (a)  t o be  requirements).  adequately  influence trip  in  knowledge,  a way  i s a unique p l a n t i n the  distance trip  this  p l a n t and  regional destinations - Prairie  impossible  the  i n such  t h e r e f o r e , consignments  This  EOQ,  hypothesized  shipper, with  quality-of-service  B.C.  shipments  serve  imposed by  northern  manufacturing  t r u c k i n g companies n o r m a l l y  f o r the  into  inter-city  deliveries  the  costs  the  proportion  small consignment, m u l t i p l e  ation b i l l  mill,  For-hire  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n at the  to the  shipment of  a significant  shipments.  carriers and  -  w h i c h has  of multiple-consignment the  178  low  that multiple  average delivery  occur. Given  ( a ) , and  consignments w i l l  plant according  to the  be  an  important  grouped i n t o  division  of  long-distance shipments  from  that market i n t o  regions  -  served  by  but  Given  much f r o m t h e trips  instead gion  of  function  load ket  and  to  thence to  (as  opposed  manufacturer:  shipments With  are  and  i n d i c a t e the  analysed  Despite  only  serve  to  plants  specified this -  are  a sawmill,  firms  -  and  general  the  per  local,  urban  market  the  I f the  customer,  this  food  model  plant  linkages  were  then  trip is  goods.  per  day  included  which would activity  major t r a f f i c  the  almost a l l  industrial one  mar-  proposed.  plant,  and  this  and  appropriate  transportation the  re-  for additional  sawmill  case of  the  not  be  system  to  generators.  i n d i v i d u a l i n s i g n i f i c a n c e , i t does  the  additive effect that  traffic  located  generation  city:  within  several  a plywood m i l l , three  to  week g e n e r a t e d ,  than only  zones i n the  plant  the  f o r ) by  v a r i e t y of  a plant's  h a v e on  non-local  c o m p l e t e wood p r o d u c t s  demonstrate  can  and  s i x employees,  great  rather  such  the  the  destinations.  manufacturers'of  recorded were the be  local,  In  some e l e v e n , t r i p s  attracted, to  to  non-local  to paid  plant would conform to Pallet  i n the  within  theinter-city terminal the  should  distributed differently:  e i t h e r move d i r e c t l y  were p r e d o m i n a n t l y  provided  rates  market i s e n t i r e l y  delivery pattern  takes place  plant  market-region or  the  p l a n t w o u l d be  a multiple  from the  carriers.  (b), trip, generation  case where  from the  this  trips  -  individual inter-city (c)  vary  179  wholesalers  other  and  two  within  numerous and  less than of  the  of  the  small  between  one  plants  mile  of  surveyed  miscellaneous  o f wood p r o d u c t s .  I f the  area  -  enclosed  by  these  plants  180  and  firms  traffic  zone,  terials  f o r smaller manufacturers  Furthermore, erated  by  substantial  -  distribution  tends  channels  to  re-manufacturers  X  =  1  non-basic Y^  its  where  tirely week ed  =  f o r many  efficiency products  of  (Y^ =  the  are  the  the  X^  eleven  can  sawmill  model In  retailers,  the  large  the  but  instead  and  machinery  quite different The  pallet  quantities  are  within  the  urban  lative  to weight.  with of  similar  machinery  materials.  2  quantity to  model  loses  one  an  adverse  retail/  much  structure  such  or  is  trip  error effect  of enper  compoundon  the  products  or wholesalers of  do  a mill's  activity customer  not  comprise  local  market,  (in this f o r the  t r a n s p o r t d e m a n d s may  s m a l l , shipment and  I t should  characteristics, s u p p l i e s and  with  o t h e r w o r d s , where wood  manufacturer  region,  gen-  a l l wood  i s the  set of  exists  to  economic  handling)  ma-  0.624X ,  i f i t i s applied  destination  some o t h e r  +  1  channel  an  a  raw  for trips  model p r e d i c t s  have  as  retail/wholesale  % local this  of  for plants  0.170X  observed;  re-manufacturers,  a  =  sawmill  manufacturers.  part of  equation  +  of  wholesalers  either  -0.028  thought  transfers  and  distribution  The  be  efficient  p e r week)  small plants of  be  which  trips  different.  instead  to  employment,  wholesale, utility  intra-zonal  -since the " p r e d i c t i v e  sawmills  can  serves  product  t h e r e f o r e be such  parts,  or  as  has  food  product, be  are  where  volume  grouped  distributors  order  dispersed  high  producers  then  generated.  a market  distributions  the  case  with  or of  re-  plants  wholesalers packing  - 181 -  Manufacturer's products buting trol  companies u t i l i z e  their  product.  non-local outlets  Eastern  certainly  The m a j o r m u l t i - p l a n t  a variety  The d e c i s i o n fortheir  Canada warehouses  example) of  Sales Branch:  o f channels  products  however, have taken trol  the price  over  the physical  the remainder  Two o f t h e s i x m a j o r  distribution  of British  of their  Columbia).  warehouse i n t h e Lower Mainland panies  have s i m i l a r Control  is  largely  in  the channel.  additional sales paid  outlets  over  just  market  However, t h e s e  distribution  i n t h e urban  (essentially  additional  a  sales com-  sales  the wholesaling  branch  function  a r e made u p o f  costs,  an i n c r e a s e d  c a p a c i t y , and t h e p r i c e  area o f higher  and i n t e r - c i t y  i n the  and o t h e r  The c o s t s t o t h e m a n u f a c t u r e r  f o r c e and p h y s i c a l  con-  much o f C a n a d a .  s t o r a g e , o r d e r i n g , and b i l l i n g  the local  products  the operations of a l o c a l over  truck  greater  region  as they  position  companies,  They o p e r a t e  throughout  equivalent to taking  f o ra location  outlets f o r  on l o c a l  the option of establishing  con-  and  and c o m p e t i t i v e  Greater Vancouver area and i t s t r i b u t a r y  to  (Prairie  the companies' products, b u t t h e e f f e c t  movements i s n e g l i g i b l e .  for distri-  t o own o r o t h e r w i s e  and r e t a i l / w h o l e s a l e  affects  forest  accessibility  transportation terminals.  costs provide the manufacturer  with  a means t o c o m p e t e w i t h o t h e r w h o l e s a l e r s o f wood p r o d u c t s direct price  control  over  the production process  o f lumber and plywood.  wood p r o d u c t s  Competition  (other sawmills, etc.)  by  and t h e supply and from  producers  i s met b y o f f e r i n g  of a  - 182 -  wider  range  o f p r o d u c t s t o t h e r e t a i l e r , many o f w h i c h  not produced  b y t h e p a r e n t company.  retailer  i s t h a t he can p u r c h a s e  petitive  prices  at  and w i t h  t h e same t i m e  and  services  glues, plastic  lumber  o f a major  a variety  t o the complete  retail  generation rates  branch behaves respect higher of  t o EOQ. load  at the m i l l  i n a way There  factors  similar appeared  sales  concern branch.  mills' own  trip  pattern  this which  t o be a t e n d e n c y  costs  typical  stage o f d i s t r i b u t i o n  pact  of vertical  tial  distribution  the sales  towards  ship  numberof  outlets  i s carried  export con-  The d i s p e r s e d  s e r v e many r e i s not present;  out by the s a l e s  generated p e r day.  integration within of trips  which  their  i n a distinct  a l o n g one r o u t e -  trips  i s f o r the  a l lbut overseas  of mills  caused  from m i l l t o  Manufacturers with  and r e t a i l / w h o l e s a l e  has a large  on  apparently  of transportation  branch,resulting  o f t r u c k movements  manufacturing  branch  to other wholesalers with  pattern.  t o the sales  o f movements  product  because  The most i m p o r t a n t i m p l i c a t i o n  assured wholesale outlet  centration  sales  i s slight  inventory  f o r the costs  distribution  consignments  operation:  and s h i p m e n t - s i z e s , a l t h o u g h t h e d e s i r e  t h e company t o m i n i m i z e  little  producer ,  and d e s i g n i d e a s , e t c .  The i m p a c t o f a m a n u f a c t u r e r ' s trip  a t com-  of other products  and asbestos b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s ,  information/architectural  to the  and plywood  t h e name b r a n d  as he p u r c h a s e s  essential  The advantage  are  branch,  The i m -  t h e c h a n n e l on t h e spa-  i s therefore  significant  enough-  -  to  -  justify- i t s inclusion, i n a larger  transportation  Trip  Generation  channel be  rates  truck  with  that  large  transport Using  than  are omitted  the following  X^ =  n o n - b a s i c employment  X  % of total local retail/wholesale  t  =  quantity  =  total  =  omitting  quantity  6.62 ..+ 0 . 7 1 7  to local  trips of  t h e two p e r week)  comparison.  by weight,  to  + 0.599  market  shipped,  f o r the twenty X  9 .509  Y  - 1 2 . 2 9 5 + 0.355  sawmills:  ( r  1  t h e two e x c e p t i o n a l l y  -  by  t h e summary  were o b t a i n e d ,  shipments, customers  shipped  Y^ = x  During  s t i l l  employment  r e s u l t s were o b t a i n e d ±  should  notations  trips  total  trip  distribution  f o r purposes  total  =  of  are influenced  one hundred  Y^ =  Y  and  r e s u l t s which  Analysis.  there  results  trips  Q  or,  equations,  local  2  and  Variables:  estimates  manufacturers.  (greater  demand  Industry  by i n c l u d i n g  the regression large  1  improved  =  X^ =  these  that  be o b t a i n e d  of the regression  sawmills  movement  o f Marketing  Products  i n predictive  few e x c e p t i o n a l l y  below  t h e Wood  the fact may  variables  a suspicion  and t h e E f f e c t s  from  Despite generation  goods  study.  Conclusions  a  183  X^ X  large  = 0.710)  firms, ( r  1  2  + 0.721 X  2  2  =  0.489) , ( r  2  =  0.79 8)  -  or,  omitting  and which  the  -0.028  This  is  Y^ t  19.34  Y  1 4 . 5 0 • + '0.110 X to  The  of  have  not  be  the  variable,  the  Such other  in a  +  this  regions In  =  0.32)  of  X  marketing  employment  this  since  Valley  area,  which  that  assume  i s true  been  0.35.  The  i s only adjusted -  is itself  that that  almost  of  e s p e c i a l l y the  case,  =  2  locational  of  that  local  X.^  definition Canada,  values.  activity  from  assumption  i s to  r  of  at  sigto  least  sawmilling.  derived  The  has  which  sensitivity  variable  economic  remembered i t is  caution.  studies  large  X  activity  industry,  m u s t be  0.163  from-the  the-results  great  t e s t i n g the  variable  basic  plants  previous  exceptionally  0.107  shipments.  simple  Corridor.  viewed with  results of  two  e f f e c t of  Lower F r a s e r  split  or  local  of  2  that  ,  case  about  the  be  precaution  one  large  +  It  tion  exceptionally  =» 6.54  the  (r  0.562).  model.  Y  once  =  2  for  a  2  (r =0.33),  note, t h a t  x  (r  over;  i s i n t e r e s t i n g to  nificant  ing  2  It  of  the  of  must  upon  the  to  addition  in  0.624 X  interesting conclusion  analysis  taken  eliminate  +  X,.  0.113  plant-size  the  cast  coefficients  +  the  yields  can  X, 1  improvement  exclusion  regression  Doubt  0.170  t  =  x  an  +  -  firms;  Y, = 1  conform  equations  s a m e two  184  may  more.complex  "local" there  be  market-  informais  i s no  without  well  a  within modal  exception.  impossible  Windsor-Quebec  distance  functions  in  -  m i g h t be  appropriate,  acteristics example, put  of  i s s h i p p e d by of  the  size,  which  as  we  retail  overall,  lower  of  smaller  a predictor truck  mainly ponding  concentrated  sites,  i n an  increase  observing  making  the  of  in turn  trip  and  traced inventory  a  to  incor-  lumber  capacity  in  rates  large  cap-  cause  trends  easier  that  i n suburban,  re-  be  for  generation  extent  are,  lower vehicle  than  retail-  l o t , "factory  increase. this  shipments, not  may a  With result  corres-  movements. further  c o n c l u s i o n s ' m a y be  a s s o c i a t i o n between p l a n t ,  products manufacturers.  shipment  for local  knowledge of  truck-load  several  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s at  and  much a r e s u l t as  a v a i l a b l e truck  i n truck  Finally, by  the  determined  they  fact that  can  pro-  activity.  average shipment s i z e s w i l l  amount o f  increase  To  is  the  I f so,  future  equal  shipments  more i m p o r t a n t  of  an  For out-  percentage of  destined  as  is  service  commodities,.and  capacity.  i s becoming  present  be  of  ship  available, competition  i s probably  porate  the  those  shipment s i z e s .  warehouse"  to  char-  a plant's  assume  customer  Lower shipment-sizes  last  (and  w h i c h mode t o  the  the  a s i n g l e commodity  by  space w i l l  ing  and  have seen vary  space  some o f  rail  level  inventory  those of  rail,  that  renewed s i g n i f i c a n c e .  requirements:  more v a l u a b l e The  as  and  likely  range,  some b y  i n s i z e than  inventory  acities.  and  o u t l e t s i s due  manufacturers.  space w i t h  distance  s i g n i f i c a n c e of  going to  less  t a k e on  d e c i s i o n by  customer's  The  to  truck  truck  duced) , t h e n the by  one  -  i t i s equally  c u s t o m e r s may  i f ,within  availability  but  185  a variety of Many o f  these  market,  miscellaneous detailed  drawn  and  trip-  wood  observations  -  point the  to the  need  tions  f o r f u r t h e r e f f o r t s t o measure more  marketed  The  locally  modal s p l i t only  conclusions  about miscellaneous (1)  The  d e p e n d e n t on  channel,  time. sale  A  site  trip  possible  occur  case  manufacturing  true  where  large  the  such  at  this  spatially  direct  the  monthly  plant.  the  distribu-  are  less erratic  may  occur where  discrete sites  but  and  functions  are  emphasis  from m i l l the  fixed costs  to  is likely not  equate with  sales  branch.  company owns o r from m i l l of  t o be  to  owning or  leases  sales  through whole-  In  wholesaling  in  shipments  as  the  used w i t h i n  value  plant.  and  greater  rates  the  product  company.  t r a n s f e r r i n g products  once the  higher  the  production  rates  c o s t s , w h i c h may  frequencies  especially  to  are  from  levels,  are  significance for  forest products  c o n t r o l l e d ; the  inventory  shipment  for  integrated  at  real  distributing  generation  exception  an  mizing  of  a distance  generation  observa-  although  marketing their  shipments,  trip  owned by  centrally  or  If inventories  inventories  the  at  the  shipments which  f o r most p l a n t s ,  end-use a c t i v i t y  i n truck (3)  total  more a p l a n t ' s  mill-construction variation  of  t o be  commodities,  from  the  generators:  manufacturing or  consignment•sizes (2)  tion  appears  fully  relationships.. At  be'reached  trip  i s important  problem  unit weight  may  proportion  those plants  small  are  -  complex m a r k e t i n g - t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  moment, s e v e r a l  per  186  are  this  on  (ideally) mini-  minimizing This  is  vehicles  branch,  since  leasing vehicles  are  - 187 -  absorbed, vehicle  there  S m a l l p l a n t s i n t h e wood p r o d u c t s  maintain  performing  their  ified  specialized  Many o f t h e s e into  production  other and  first  ufacturing prises well  activity  channel  market  or manufacturer, The  activity by  commodities f o r  but the consignment s i z e i s  p l a n t s would systems  used  appear t o be b e t t e r such  as " i n d u s t r i a l  rather than  Where a wood p r o d u c t  different  this  services or producing  Plants should preferrably  to d i s t r i b u t i o n  ly  pays  classgoods  installation".  (5)  cessed.  who  e x i s t e n c e and c o m p e t i t i v e p o s i t i o n  t h e demand i s w i d e s p r e a d  small.  to force reduction of  rates. (4)  which  incentive  use i n c o n t r a s t t o t h e shipper o r consignee  for-hire  system  i s little  f r o m wood p r o d u c t  retail/wholesale  trip  retailer,  Since  the data  i n their  role  as t r i p  we  entire-  collapses.  focus f o r  structured analysis  linkages o f manufacturers,  discuss retailers  an  wholesaler,  market has been~a  generation rates.  the forward  serves  e s t i m a t i n g procedure  at a causally  according  raw m a t e r i a l s p r o -  manufacturer  the truck trip  attempt  be grouped  o f man-  s e t comcan e q u a l l y  attractors.  - 188  -  CHAPTER  VIII  R E T A I L T R I P ATTRACTION: R A T E S •  This r a t e s , which  chapter  analyzes r e t a i l  are hypothesized  encountered  trip  These  (1) employees  (2) f a c t o r was  mills  produced  s h o u l d become of  lumber  which  supply,  total  output,  or retail  the  retailer  i n the case  Characteristics trip  and vary  attraction  moving t h e commodity of these  from  supply:  supply  t h e "market"  i s the source  sources  of  their  des-  ( i . e . sawmills)  t o t h e number o f  trips  o f lumber.  i . e . who  manufacturer  vehicles..  i n the degree to  r a t h e r than  makes t o o b t a i n h i s s u p p l y Transport  i n the s i g n i f i c a n c e  o f the market:  of trips  function  output.  d i s t a n c e s h o u l d be r e l a t e d  (4)  of sawmills,  however, s i t e  vary  their  The number o f t h e s e  their  capacity  retailers  that i s the origins  and  f o r example, number o f  For retailers,  a variable:  to for retail  tinations..  of sawmill  site.  lumber.  they wholesale  referred  similar  assumed t o be homogeneous, t h a t i s t o s a y a l l  to their  (3)  to a  i n the study  Function of the site:  this  attraction  factors are:  Size of the site:  at the r e t a i l  trip  t o be r e s p o n s i v e  set o f factors: t o those generation rates.  site  owns  the trucks  to retailer,  and t h e  - 189 -  This cussion  s e t of factors derives  i n Chapter  planning  attraction tion  viewpoint,  i s more i m p o r t a n t  The r e a s o n  spatial  than  be  spatially  tion.  associated  I t i s i n such  greatest transit  conflict  with  areas  with  generation  tail  trip  traffic than  o f course,  trip genera-  congestion  pedestrian,  dis-  i s t o be f o u n d i n  commercial  truck  i s a  i n industrial  concentrations  that  areas,  which are tend  o f urban  traffic  to  popula-  comes i n t o t h e  automobile,  and p u b l i c  facturing  however, t h e a n a l y s i s o f  f o r two r e a s o n s .  attraction rates  generation  rates  of their  The o n l y  delivery  shipments  truck-load  First,  or intercity  to this  retail  industrial  conceptually, r e -  s u p p l i e r s , whether  exception  occurs  t h e s e be transport  where  trip manucom-  multiple  f r o m s u p p l i e r s a r e common; f o r e x a m p l e  f r o m a m a n u f a c t u r e r may  f o r several retailers. t o construct  of  are closely related to the  plants, wholesalers,  panies.  rates  of retail  a t t r a c t i o n n i c e l y complements t h a t  trip  quired  urban  traffic.  trip  tined  From an  and s e r v i c e a c t i v i t i e s ,  Methodologically, truck  since  structure of cities:  of a  the issue o f t r i p  areas  forthis,  made u p p r i m a r i l y o f r e t a i l  demand.  the subject  problem i n commercial  tricts. the  transport  from manufacturing s i t e s ,  greater  from t h e d i s -  I V on t h e t h e o r e t i c a l foundations  m a r k e t i n g model o f t r u c k transport  directly  have i t s contents  Secondly,  the type  a m a r k e t i n g model o f t r i p  from manufacturing  sites  also  creates  a  des-  of data r e -  generation  a data  base  on  - 190 -  trips  attracted  to the manufacturers'  vey  o f Vancouver  the  single  from  a r e a wood p r o d u c t s  data c o l l e c t i o n  the plant's  invoices  manufacturer  delivery  slips  provided  by a survey o f both the  and' h i s c u s t o m e r . retail  need more i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t and l o c a t i o n .  discussion  f o r example,  of recording information  and d r i v e r  In order t o study  tity  In the sur-  manufacturers,  procedure  data,which, are normally c o l l e c t e d  customers.  trip  attraction  the retailer  than  rates  simply h i s iden-  E x t e n d i n g t h e argument s e t f o r t h  of distribution  channels  and t r a n s p o r t  i n the  demand  (Chapter IV) and t h e m a r k e t i n g model o f s a w m i l l t r i p tion is  rates  (Chapter V I I ) , marketing  required  which  from each  follows,  calculation is  then  divided  trip  distance,  (b) from  i s also  s i t e ownership stores).  Trip  a similar (c)  dustry  retail  method o f  The d a t a  analysis  firm  set of  linkages  (de-  p e r week) b e t w e e n p a i r s  are estimated from size,  size,  attraction  of  variables  the importance  and t r u c k  rates  of  which lumber  capacity.  forretailers  are e s t i -  variables.  of the structure  analyzed, i n this (whether  and t h e i r  of significant  shipment  One e f f e c t  sub-section  parts:  and r e t a i l e r s  the r e t a i l e r ,  mated  three  as g r e a t e r t h a n one t r i p  include  In the f i r s t  are discussed.  The m a g n i t u d e s  manufacturers  to  into  genera-  and a c t i v i t y i n f o r m a t i o n  these data requirements  and c o l l e c t i o n  (a) fined  retailer.  we  case  of the r e t a i l i n -  the question of  or not the s i t e  retail  i s part of a chain of  -  The  Collection  and  191  -  Calculation  of Retail  Trip  Attraction  Model Data •  Two the  general sources  importance  attraction  of  rates  The  survey  in-.earlier  chapter - the  identity  and  of  i n one  tion,  the  of  up  by  of  individual  s h i p m e n t on  pertain  A  who  directly  are  surveyed.  to the a  of  trip  which  g e n e r a t i o n :•.  - the  this  following the number  of manufacturers trip,  and,  and  by  and  re-  calcula-  manufacturer.  t o be  T h e s e new  created  data  are  to those  characteristics,.and  survey  of  twenty  a l l the -l o c a l  sawmills  origin-  R e f u s a l s t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n were f o l l o w e d to the  retail  sites  i n question i n  the i n f o r m a t i o n and/or conduct  As  vestigation  of r e t a i l i n g activity  Not  data  customers,  d a t a had  the  surements.  all.  retail  retailer's  telephone  customers  personal v i s i t s  author.  trip  retailer  sawmill-survey data.  order to request  this  truck  sawmill survey:  each  set of marketing  t h e y were' o b t a i n e d b y  ally  site  estimate  the s u b j e c t of  the o r i g i n a l  d i s t a n c e between each  supplement the  retailers  For  month between p a i r s  size  (2)  which  plants.  from  location  the  to estimate  t r a n s p o r t demand o f r e t a i l e r s  d a t a were a v a i l a b l e  tailers,  retail  of sawmills collected  chapters  f o r manufacturing  trips  influencing  to  rates: (1)  were u s e d  factors  o f data were used  i n the  case  Ninety-two  o n l y does  this  of  (92) total  the  visual  sawmill survey,  mea-  this i n -  wascCQriduGtedasolelyrby  retailers comprise  were surveyed  in  a l l the  retail  local  - 192 -  customers o f a l l twenty total of  sawmills,  number o f lumber r e t a i l  British  i talso  coincides  o u t l e t s i n t h e Lower  with  Mainland  Columbia. The  data  used  i n the s t a t i s t i c a l  analysis  trip  attraction rates  will  into  account not only  the problems o f d e f i n i n g each  now b e c o n s i d e r e d  of  i t s hypothesized  role i n influencing transport  1.  Trip  attraction rates  to retail  those The  from the sawmill  trips  truck  carrying  trip  survey  data,  uses.  This  demand.  was  cal-  and so i t i n c l u d e s  only  lumber from the twenty m i l l s  attraction rate  taking  variable  also  land  retail  i n detail,  but  culated  the  f o r each r e t a i l e r  surveyed. i s defined  as: J  where: Y^  =  Y.. = 1  J  course,  lumber-carrying  suppliers)  population  truck 'trips  rying  sawmill  o f the true  value  The t w e n t y  of J  generation  number o f i s  sawmills  many o f t h e s e  m i g h t be e x p e c t e d  constrained  (thenumber o f saware the  suppliers, but other  lumber c e r t a i n l y supply  wood p r o d u c t a t r i p s  i n the trip  t o each r e t a i l e r  the true  i s known.  of local  sawmills  the estimate  the degree t o which  mill  retailer  the t r i p generation rate o f the j t h t r i p generator t o the i t h retailer.  = the twenty survey.  Of  by  the t r i p a t t r a c t i o n rate of the i t h with respect to J t r i p generators.  trucks  retailers.  from sawmills  total carOther  outside  - 193 -  the  Vancouver region, plywood  producers,  and a v a r i e t y  and panel  mills,  o f miscellaneous  millwork  wood  products  manufacturers. U n f o r t u n a t e l y we h a v e n o k n o w l e d g e o f t h e e x t e n t to which  interactions- occur  different tail it  activity  o u t l e t may  i s probable  supplier other  systems.  Apart  from the f a c t  This  interaction  of trip  appear  t o be t h e n e x t  area  concern,  m o d e l s o f u r b a n goods movement  summary  statistics  is  for individual  A v e r a g e FBM o n e a c h s h i p m e n t derived directly  tained  from m i l l s .  from t h e t r i p I twill  purchased by the r e t a i l wholesale, without  ends  from  i s assumed  any one  from a l l availthese  (commodity  within firms  although  -for r e s e a r c h  working  a re-  capacities of  whole, p r o b l e m o f b e h a v i o u r  i s beyond o u r c u r r e n t  that  i s caused by t h e  o f v e h i c l e s , t h e range o f load  This  from  attractions,  i s i n f l u e n c e d by t h e combined volumes  plants  (2)  trip  t h a t t h e volume of, t r i p - m a k i n g  v e h i c l e s , , and t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n gins) .  frequencies  exhibit multiple pick-up  suppliers.  ability  between t r i p  after  and  i t would systematic  are constructed  to the retailer: generation  t o move d i r e c t l y  this  shipment  excepting  to the r e t a i l  a c h a n g e i n v o l u m e due t o m u l t i p l e p i c k up o r en  (3)  Weighted  distance t o source  using  i n f o r m a t i o n ob-  that each  categories defined,  activity  and  plants.  be r e c a l l e d  very  ori-  office site deli-  route. o f supply:  summarizes t h e d i s t a n c e between the " r e t a i l e r  one v a l u e  which  and h i s source  - 194  of  lumber  between system  supply  the  frequently to  i s required.  retailer  gives  and  greater  supplying  lumber  linkages,  w  distance  (d  1  =  system  • n  1 3  of  weighting  m a n u f a c t u r e r was  and  weight  between  to  This  distances  less  over  importance  trips.  each  defined  distances  employed.  relatively  infrequent  i s therefore  E D  each  c h a r a c t e r i z e d by  Weighted  A  s i g n i f i c a n c e and  travelled  linkages  -  retailer  and  sawmills  as:  ) 1 J  J  where: D  =  weighted distance each r e t a i l e r ; .  d. . = d i s t a n c e i .  from  of tOt^l t r i p  jth trip  attractions  generator  to  to  retailer  1  n.. = -'  t o t a l number o f m i l l and i o v e r  1  Weighted should  be  made  of  distance the  t r i p s counted between]jth any p e r i o d o f t i m e .  has  method  been  defined,  for estimating  but  each  saw-  mention d...  Dis-  i j  tance can  can  be  tity  be  measured  combined  to  miles,  give  with  Distance  significant  only  assume  i f linear  able be  no  of  a  measures  ways.  of  accessibility,  per  se  cost  in  to  distance  significance to  need  indices  as  a variety of  other  indices of  etc.  that  in  the  miles  develop  a  theory  which  combine  distance  distance  time, per  and  be  met  and  cannot  be  overcome, regarded  hand,  then  i n c o r p o r a t i n g more and  some o t h e r  quan-  hour,  ton-  transportation studies  problem a t  to  space,  Linear  so as  is we  a  there  can varimay  complex  measure  s i g n i f i c a n t t o t r a n s p o r t a t i o n supply and demand a t p o i n t s i n space.  The consequence o f such an assumption,.which i s open  to more d i s p u t e  than perhaps any o t h e r made i n t h i s  i s that location  ( f o r which a c c e s s i b i l i t y i s defined) and  speed  (the e f f e c t o f highway q u a l i t y  chapter,  and the degree o f com-  p e t i t i o n f o r road space) do not a f f e c t t r i p g e n e r a t i o n o r attraction  rates.  An a n a l y s i s  of trip distribution  of course, a v o i d such d i s t a n c e - r e l a t e d measures. of d i s t a n c e i n which we are i n t e r e s t e d  cannot,  The e f f e c t  here i s i t s r e l a t i o n -  s h i p to shipments s i z e s between any p a i r o f l o c a t i o n s , the  r e s u l t i n g e f f e c t o f t r i p f r e q u e n c i e s between those  and loca-  tions . Three a l t e r n a t i v e  ways o f c a l c u l a t i n g  each d^_. were  considered: (1)  Straight-line  distance  ( d..).  calculated  T h i s value i s  i j  s  by: S  d. . = 1]  ((a.-c.) 1  j  2  + (b.-d.) p 2  v  i  j  where g r i d c o o r d i n a t e s o f i and j are a., b. and c., d . 3 j (2) G r i d o r r e c t a n g u l a r d i s t a n c e ( d..) • g Ij d. . = (a.-c.) + (b.^d.) 1  g  i ]  (3) (2)  I D  (R) i s some f u n c t i o n o f (1) and  above, i n r e c o g n i t i o n o f the f a c t t h a t c i t y  tems commonly e x h i b i t and  j  1  Real d i s t a n c e  1  networks which combine  g r i d r o u t e s , i . e . &j_j  street  s  system,  < R  < g^ij*  I  n  a  street-sys-  straight-line  rectilinear  - 196  R = q. • ^  -  d. . ,  where 1.00  .< q. <  SI]'  _  ,1  Nordbeck found the v a l u e o f q to be 1.21  f o r two  approximately  d.. might be a more e f f i c i e n t g 13  The Swedish s t r e e t networks bore no resemblance  the g r i d systems For  T  towns i n Sweden, although he f a i l e d t o p o i n t  out the circumstances i n which measure.'*"  _  Jl.QQ  characteristic  o f most North American  to  cities.  the l a t t e r type, a constant expansion f a c t o r o f g r e a t e r  than 1.21  might be necessary.  to be inadequate here because  Nordbeck's method i s assumed o f the nature o f e r r o r s  intro-  duced by u s i n g a constant expansion f a c t o r q to be a p p l i e d to a l l d.. i n the urban area. D e s p i t e h i s c l a i m t h a t an S  1]  v  e r r o r i n one d i s t a n c e i s l i k e l y to be c a n c e l l e d by an e r r o r i n another, i n f a c t e r r o r s w i l l be compounded along s p e c i f i c routes.  Although t h i s c r i t i c i s m can be l e v e l l e d at a l l  three methods o f e s t i m a t i n g d i s t a n c e , we  can expect g^^j to  be a more e f f i c i e n t estimate where much o f the i n t r a - u r b a n t r a v e l i s known t o be along a r t e r i a l r o u t e s which of the r e c t i l i n e a r s t r e e t  system.  are p a r t  Ingram used t h i s argument  i n h i s study o f a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n southern O n t a r i o c i t i e s . While he used g r i d d i s t a n c e s , and defended t h e i r ness, Ingram.also  effective-  noted t h a t s t r a i g h t - l i n e  d i s t a n c e s might 2 be s u f f i c i e n t i n o t h e r c i t i e s o r i n r e g i o n a l s t u d i e s . . Nordbeck, S. "Computing D i s t a n c e s i n Road Nets," Papers and Proceedings of the R e g i o n a l S c i e n c e A s s o c i a t i o n , 12 (1964) , 207-220.. 2  Ingram, D. R. "The Concept o f A c c e s s i b i l i t y : A Search f o r an O p e r a t i o n a l Form", R e g i o n a l S t u d i e s , - 5 (1971), 101-107.  -  197  -  Whichever method i s used, has  to  the  map  80  be  developed.. A  of  miles  the  to  half-mile  urban region  the  east). g  for 20  sawmills of  all  to  these distances  and  proved  natural  m a g n i t u d e and  barriers  further  three  i t i s suspected  the  crossing  of  lineal: t s  was-  cross  number o f  shipment  t e s t of  some  accuracy  for  a body  the  not  errors'  large  rectilinear  of  equally  in cities  i f available t h i s study,  like  i n the  are  enough to  simple  to  jusA l l  compute,  adjust  for  V a n c o u v e r w o u l d be  a  future.  grid distances  for bridges  introduced  measures.  a computer program to  w e r e b a s e d on  a  half-  and o t h e r d i s t u r b a n c e s .  accurate  t o w i t h i n J\/2  Loca-  ml.  Dis-  afiQur.ate^t©.cwi.thi-n l - . o m i d ^ . a a s i m M g , a a p e n f e c t , r e c t i fe-B^eJtls^s-teemstreet  Total  number o f  calculated  plying than  bridges  establishments  are  the  above are  that  grid unadjusted  tances  (4)  of  device In  tions  Valley  f o r each  t h e i r remarkable  m o v e m e n t was  adjustments to  but  mile  to  measures, o u t l i n e d  useful  Fraser  on  required. The  tify  the  a real-distance  to  coordinates  superimposed  calculated  l i n k s except those where a detour  w a t e r was  by  g r i d was  ( V a n c o u v e r and  d . . was i ]  retailers,  a system of  by  suppliers  simply  each r e t a i l e r .  system. to  each r e t a i l e r :  summing the  number o f  I t i s therefore  this  value  sawmills  always equal  to  supor  less  twenty. In  culated  addition  from the  to  sawmill  the  above v a r i a b l e s  survey data,  which were  four.more v a r i a b l e s  calwere  - 198 -  obtained data, (5)  from t h e survey  variables Number  of retailers.  (5) t h r o u g h  as  i t was  ivities such or  with  a wide  a distinction  largest  size  merchandise  of retailers,  advertising  discussed  later.  (6)  Percent  item  asked  nificance  stock  of firms  and  act-  sites ( i n food  For the  accounting,  may w e l l l o c a t e a t a d i f f e r e n t activity.  t o "chain"  This  retailing,  employment a t t h e s i t e  lumber o f t o t a l 'stocks  total  site  i s cer-  which w i l l  during  (by v a l u e ) : retailers  business  and  be  defined 19 7 0 .  the second  was  the sig-  by d o l l a r  value.  i n the s i g n i f i c a n c e o f lumber i n the r e t a i l e r ' s be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  a decrease  load  i n trip  customers:  f a c t o r s on v e h i c l e s .  t h e more a b u s i n e s s  trade,  attrac-  because o f the oppor-  The p e r c e n t a g e Of l u m b e r W h i c h i s r e t a i l e d  "cash and c a r r y " in  employees  Number o f e m p l o y e e s i s t h e r e f o r e  to increase  (private)  distinc-  forretail  purchasing,  r a t e s p e r u n i t o f lumber stocked  tunity (7)  distinct:  o f lumber t o t h e i r  should  and other  f o r example)..  of each o f t h e ninety-two  An i n c r e a s e  -The  the functions performed w i t h i n the  respect  t h e average t o t a l  tion  distribution  retailing  activities  true with  site:  although  the l o c a t i o n of the r e t a i l i n g  tainly  as  sites,  below.  becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y i m p o r t a n t  f i r m become s p a t i a l l y  from  "production"  f o r manufacturing  general  (8),are defined  o f employees- a t t h e r e t a i l  t i o n w a s n o t made b e t w e e n  These a d d i t i o n a l  o r product  line.  individual  i s oriented to the  the less i ti s l i k e l y  any one s i n g l e p r o d u c t  to  to  specialize  The r e a s o n f o r  -  this  best  commodities  fits  those  stocks  the  and  tion  total  of  s e r v i c e s a t one t h e "market.  prices  tail  t h a t the site  lumber.  stock of  site..  This  some o r or  lumber which  m i g h t be  i s served  of  directly  provided by'retail  by  is; maintained  at  and  at  type, than  The  owned by  less  attracted Gross  the  to r e t a i l  V e h i c l e Weight  each r e t a i l e r :  each r e t a i l e r that  i n the  largest  This  survey.  vehicle  the  hardware sire  of  product  cases  mill.  A  i f any  are  s u p p l i e s and those  of  at  the  re-  outlets  distribution: load  the -largest  i t e m was  obtained  factors  truck  from  I t i s assumed i n t h i s the  retailer  suppliers,  used  f o r the  The  up  for  smaller other  assumed  transportation of  number o f t r i p s  study  i s used  while  for picking  for a l ldeliveries.  firms paying  to minimize  (GVW)  from  owned, a r e  retail  con-  sites.  owned by  t r a n s p o r t i n g wood p r o d u c t s trucks,  numerous  i n those  f r e q u e n t movements w i t h h i g h e r  (8)  might  backward-linkages  final  busi-  propor-  we  in  case  of  opposed  their  a lower  the  w o u l d be  as  i n e a s t e r n Canada where l a r g e w h o l e s a l e sites  which  industrial  more o f t e n s u p p l y this  and  existence of  supply  assort-  a l l of  Furthermore,  i m p l i e s the  an  stores,  i s more d i v e r s e i n q u a l i t y  retailer  sites  Retail  offer  diverse linkages to sources  trast  location  to commercial  stocks being  the wholesale  where the  offering  t h e r e f o r e o f t e n c h a r a c t e r i z e d by  hypothesize retail  gained by  firms which  at wholesale are  and  and  needs o f  sites  nesses,  the  -  i s t h e m a r k e t p o w e r to. be  ment o f  to  199  implies that  de-  the larger  -  truck  capacity  h a v e no  used  ledge of  the  tween m i l l  to. be  duct to  the  extent  f o r p i c k i n g up importance  and  retail  used,  retail  of  site.  that  i s i n the  age  f a c t o r s w o u l d be  Twofor-hire This  truck  adjusted  The  b u i l d i n g supply  does  serve  ation  to  capacity  be  most o f  of  owned and this  transportation  know-  contract  carriage  lower  be-  is  most  the  pro-  v e h i c l e s , i t can  part  of  their  the  survey  i n the only  give  u s e d by  probably  carriage  operate  sector  o p e r a t e d by  supply  supplies, or  to  counting  a f i r m may  capacity  are  found  employees  retail  largest trucks  w o u l d be  of  i n d i c a t e that merely  transportation may  enough to  by  we  be  than  aver-  higher.  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n as  accordingly  own  frequencies  number o f  Again,  transportation of  not  f i r m s were  is insignificant  ignored.  the  retail  to which  Where c o n t r a c t  that  load  u n i t time.  wood p r o d u c t  s i t e s w h i c h do trip  per  for hire or  hypothesized and  -  fewer t r i p s  knowledge of  actually  likely  allows  200  firms  i t can  be  involved  firms.  counting  of  business.  those employees the  The  total  was  in example  transport-  a d i s t o r t e d picture of  that  site  a retailer serves  function for other  that  a supply  - up  to  10  or wholesaler  a contract  commercial  the  trucks but  or f o r - h i r e  or  industrial  sites.  Manufacturing-Retail The of  Linkages Greater  strongest  manufacturers  and  trip  linkages  retailers  are  T h a n One  T r i p per  between i n d i v i d u a l  analyzed  first  i n the  Week pairs hope  -  that be  t h i s would  eliminate  associated with  linkages  are of  trips  day,  per  some o f • t h e - r a n d o m n e s s - . w h i c h  occasional  defined  strengths  -  201  these  as  range  trip  from  trips. per  from the  data  retailer  i s assumed t o p r o v i d e  pertaining to  a v a i l a b l e on  the  retail  the  These  week.  each t r i p .  i s used  in  2.000  wish  Since  transportation,  site  The  0.200 t o o v e r  i t i s t h e s e m a g n i t u d e s w h i c h we  estimate  data  infrequent  t h o s e o v e r one  linkages  and  and  might  to  the  only  regression  analysis. The tions  do  not  r e s u l t s are estimate  presented  trip  frequencies  the  most l i k e l y  reason being  per  day)  low  have  changes esting  a  i n the  It  i s not  takes  so  inversely  gle  of  are 0  Z  o  there  of  X^  i s no  r e l a t e d to per  f a c t o r s on  trip  frequencies,  conclusive trip  trip  i n s e n s i t i v e to"  distance  values  trip  by  the  to  per  that  distance  some d e c a y  i t makes l i t t l e  are  trying  estimation  sin-  determine higher  determine  sense to i n c l u d e  i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e i n an  is  func-  most important  asked what f a c t o r s  s i n c e we  day.  (distance)  f r e q u e n c y makes p o s s i b l e  v e h i c l e s , but  have  i n d i f f e r e n t equa-  evidence  is clearly  inter-  appear  X^  plays:  frequencies  i t m i g h t be  Increasing  load  negative  (trips  However, i t i s  and  equa-  successfully,  values  quite  X ...;X . 0  very  The  in explaining variation in trips  v a r i a b l e , but  potential  and  c l e a r what r o l e d i s t a n c e  M e a n FBM  m e a n FBM.  t h a t the  shipment s i z e  b o t h p o s i t i v e and  tions,  tion.  values  that only  any s i g n i f i c a n c e  range  i n Table-9.  of  as X^.  a  - 202 -  TABLE 9 Manufacturing-Retail  Linkages Greater Regression  N =  T h a n One T r i p p e r D a y  Equations,  65  Variables  Mean  Trips/day  (x )  0. 504  Distance  (x )  11. 226  (X )  7,014. 620  x  2  Mean FBM, e a c h  linkage  3  (x )  Number o f s u p p l i e r s % lumber  i n retail  % lumber  retailed  GVW  largest  X  x  80. 667 %  (X )  33. 219 %  6  (X )  46,000. 000  (Xg)  14. 227  7  Employees  FBM  (X ) 5  truck  mis.  •-  4  stock  trips/day  =0.355+ 0.000021(X ) 3  lbs. employees R2  S.E.(X )  0.063  0.312  x  X  = 0.408 + 0.000026(X ) + 0.0039(X )  0.130  0.303  X  = -0.523 + 0.273 ( l o g x )  0.078  0.309  0 .172  0 . 295  0.189  0.211  ±  ±  3  2  3  X, = -0.511 +. 0.350 ( l o g x - 0.252 l o g ( X )  3  )  2  log(Xn)  =-1.116 + 0.261 ( l o g - X,) + 0.196 ( l o g X ) 2  Note; Variables  X  analysis;  only  in.the All  2  t o Xg a r e i n c l u d e d those  i n a stepwise  significant  equations.  l o g a r i t h s a r e t o the base  10.  a t t h e 95%  regression  level  are.included  -  Omitting to  X^  estimate  therefore,  the  X^,  (mean  FBM):  203  -  following equations  were  derived  X  3  =  4548.28  +  53.616  (X )  X  3  =  3159.08  +  47.743  (X )  X  3  =  mean s h i p m e n t s i z e (FBM) on e a c h r e t a i l e r m a n u f a c t u r e r l i n k g r e a t e r t h a n one t r i p per week  X^  =  GVW  X  =  Distance  y  +  2  60.513(X ) ?  R  2  =  0.076  R  2  =  0.148  where:  Available  2  the  retailer's  average  distance  mechanism  (unweighted)  FBM  per  giving rise  to  between  individual  is:  increasing distance  enable  higher  ciated  with  reason  for  quency  movements  in  truck  trip  tity  shipment  slight this  coefficient average  (r =  bility  shipment  due  the  to  limits rates  variation size size  effect  of  especially  in  combination  the  frequency  capacity  which  in  trip  attempt are  seem  between  on  that  truck  by  on  increase  link  per  one  capacity  limits.  of  fre-\  increase in  quan-  negative  trip  and  the  linkage:  link  decreases.  The  factors.  the  high  asso-  rates.  rate  the  and  be  load  s i z e s per  any  to  the  m e a n FBM  shipment  increases  to  retailers  for high  maximize  reached,  causal  encourage  turn  in  intensi-  and  generation  to  corresponds  of  general  manufacturers  truck  in  that  trip  i s demonstrated  -0.608)  shipment  important  relationship is that  retailers  This  of  and  link be  seems  of  sizes,  latter  generation  correlation  pairs  each to  different  increases  capacity  shipped.  It  on  truck  appears  trip,  covered.  ties  Once  largest  transportation capacity  determining with  of  the  This  as  variais  probably  - 204  Retail All an  retailers  individual site  tion  matrix  enter  Attraction  rather  than  linkage  to analysis  basis.  on  The-correla-  i s shown i n T a b l e  p e r day, allowing  the equations  Rates  were then subjected  f o r the variables  estimate of trips to  Trip  -  10.  a l l independent  i f a t t h e 95% s i g n i f i c a n c e  Anvariables  level,  produces: X  = -0.39  X  = - 0 . 6 2 + 0.308 ( X )  ±  + 0.328(X ) 4  +. 0 . 0 0 8 6 ( X )  4  7  R  2  =  0.68  R  2  =  0.70  where: X.. == n u m b e r o f t r i p s p e r week  (sawmills)  X^ = GVW  truck  largest  highly  market  competitive  and a tendency  tailers.  That truck  significant tion  retail  attraction rates  t h e number o f s u p p l i e r s  the  t o each  X^ = n u m b e r o f s h i p p e r s each r e t a i l e r  Trip by  attracted  variable  of the sign  the r e t a i l  uses,  indicating  of the manufacturer's  t o "shop  around".'on t h e p a r t  capacity  i s not surprising, although  (positive)  local of r e -  (X^) s h o u l d be t h e n e x t  i s hard  with  GVW: =  site  influenced  nature  shipment s i z e has a f a i r l y  3  supplying  are overwhelmingly  since  X  retailer  2 1 7 0 . 6 +• 9 2 . 3 7 (X^) 7  to explain,  strong  most  the direcespecially  positive  R  correlation  2  =  0.243  TABLE  All  Retail:  (x ) 1  Trips/day Weighted  (x )  1.00  <x >  -0.07  x  distance  2  Average shipment s i z e t o each retailer  (x )  0.26*  No.  (x )  0.83*  of suppliers  3  4  % lumber  i n s t o c k (X5)  % lumber  retailed  GVW  largest  Employees  truck  2  (x ) 3  (x ) 4  (X ) 5  (x ) 6  (X ) ?  (x ) 8  1.00  0.28*  1.00  t\J  -0.04  0.20  1.00  0. 32* -0.08  0.17  0.33*  -0.15  -0.33*  -0.29*  0.11  (x )  0.41*  0.18  (Xg)  0.40*  * Significant  7  C o r r e l a t i o n- M a t r i x  <x )  (x ) 6  10  O Ln  1.00 -0.58*  1.00  0.49*  0.34*  0 .2.4 * -0.18  -0.06  •0.13  0.43*  0.07  a t 95%  level.  -0.12  1.00 0.33*  1.00  -  It largest  m i g h t be  f i r m s / and  approaching  truck  travelled.  I f the  load, tion  because  r =  subject  to  tive  sign  capacity  large  attraction  that  might expose Table  11,  those  links  trucks  relative  Perhaps  have l a r g e  which  are  normally.have  c a u s e an  trips  to  the  largest trip attractors,  e i t h e r not  with  due  increase  (those  of  large  per the  trucks  day  almost  in trip  m i g h t be  or  the  be  posi-  less  counter-  simplest  explanation  and  the  also  full  firms,  loads,  trucks,  a  attrac-  smaller  to have f u l l to  heavily  highest  is trip  rates. The  suggests  will  use  i t i s .  firms  on  smaller  tend  frequent  than  the  largest trucks  I f the 0.33)  -  p o s i t i v e sign, i s again  therefore  associated  intuitive that  the  a d d i t i o n a l loads rates.  206  confusion the the  of  matrix  interdependence  of  partial  amongst  correlation coefficients  dominant r e l a t i o n s h i p s (Table  i t can  be  seen  that  the  variables  number o f  11).  In  suppliers  is  '  indeed and  strongly  that  there  shipment  i s only  percentage age  of  sely  associated  of  causative  retail  stock  a chain  of  which  is retailed,  Neither  with  attraction rate,  distance truck  i s lumber, are  also  v a r i a b l e , however,  associated with  Site  of  trip  a weak r e l a t i o n s h i p ) and  mechanism  It  the  size increases  lumber which  related.  with  trip  (although  capacity. and  the  percent-  c l o s e l y and fits  The  into  inverthe  attraction rates.  Ownership D i s t i n c t i o n s  i s hypothesized operations  (one  that  retailers  f i r m owning  which  several  are  part  retail  TABLE  All  Retail:  (x )  (x )  x  Trips/day Weighted  distance  FBM No.  2  Correlation  (x ) 3  4  1.00  <x>  -0.13  (x )  0.09  0.25*  (x )  0.74*  0.08  -0.07  1.00  2  4  Matrix  (x )  (Xi)  3  suppliers  Partial  11  (x ) 5  (x ) 6  (x ) 7  1.00 1.00 O  % lumber  i n stock  (x )  0.04  -0.06  0.05  0.08  % lumber  retailed  (x )  0.02  0.10  -0.05  -0.11  (x )  0.20  0.12  0.39*  0.01  0.08  -0.01  1.00  (x )  0.10  0.05  0.08  0.20  -0.10  -0.02  •0.05  GVW  truck  Employees  5  6  7  8  * indicates  (Xg)  s i g n i f i c a n c e a t 95%  level.  1.00 -0.51*  1.00  1.00  -  outlets)  behave  transportation retailers. the  means  differently from those  Significant  -  208  with  which  respect  to purchasing  and  are not, i . e . non-chain  d i f f e r e n c e s can be o b s e r v e d  o f the v a r i a b l e s f o r each  class of  between  retailer  ( T a b l e . 12) . Chain r e t a i l e r s supply, dustry  although i s close  Vancouver, center  of their  both  employees  i s deceptive  to the center  so chain  Mean due  this  retailers  shipment  because  probably  market i n  (almost  non-chain r e t a i l e r ) probably  serve  take  retailers,  twice  smaller.  place:  one t r i p  two o r more members  I t i s known t h a t  relationships  with  volume buying  at discount  Chain items  sults higher  a few m i l l s  retailers  than non-chain  wholesale  relatively  retailers  to their  of the chain. retailers  cultivate  mutual  concentrate  more on  and r e t a i l  more o f t h e i r  close  advantage:  non-lumber  rather  lumber stock.  i n smaller vehicle capacities being shipment  from  prices.  retailers,  than This r e -  required,  despite  sizes.  A regression rates,  chain  a s many  and t h e f a c t  However, t h e number o f s u p p l i e r s o f c h a i n is  Greater  manufacturer's.  sizes are larger f o r chain  as t h e average  of  locate closer to the  t o t h e i r s l a r g e r , ave-ragei.". s i z e  m a n u f a c t u r e r may  sources  the sawmill i n -  of the r e t a i l  market, not the  that multiple deliveries the  locate closer to their  omitting chain  analysis of sites' retailers,  trip  indicates that  attraction t h e number  TABLE  Site-Ownership:  12  Variable  Means  Variables All  (x )  Trips/day Weighted  x  distance  i n retail  % lumber  retailed  GVW  largest  Employees  truck  0.743  Chain  Non-Chain  0.68  0.74  11.88  10.74  12.19  (x )  5,384.37  5,733.05  5,204.90  (x )  3.40  3.33  3.41  (x )  71.79  66.30  73.02  (x )  52.17  64 .57  49.55  (x )  34,792  32,300  35,224  (x )  9.54  14 .22  to  suppliers  % lumber  Retail  <x ) 2  A v e r a g e shipment.. s i z e each r e t a i l e r Number o f  Means  3  4  stock  5  6  7  8  8 .04  - 210  -  s u p p l i e r s o f lumber i s again most s i g n i f i c a n t i n determining trips: X  1  = -0.45  + 0.345 (X )  r  4  =  2  0.69  Non-chain r e t a i l e r s ' t r i p a t t r a c t i o n r a t e s are s l i g h t l y more, s e n s i t i v e t o changes i n the number of s u p p l i e r s than i s --the tof i g±a-t trac.tei/ano£a te. If © r. t a l l I f we  sites .  allow o t h e r v a r i a b l e s t o be added t o the w  equation, we o b t a i n : X and  X  ±  ±  = -0.59 •+ 0.305 (X ) 4  -0.85  + 0.035 (X )  r  Q  + ' 0 . 3 0 0 (X^) + 0.033 (X ) g  2  =  0.71  + 0.008 (X ) 7  r  2  =  That employment s i z e should e n t e r the equation i s an  0.73 encour-  aging s i g n o f the v a l i d i t y o f making the group o f s i t e s more homogenous w i t h r e s p e c t to ownership. The number of s u p p l i e r s to s i t e s i s o n l y  signifi-  cant f o r a s p e c i f i e d i n d u s t r i a l - m a r k e t i n g - r e t a i l i n g s t r u c ture.  It.has no v a l i d i t y should t h a t s t r u c t u r e undergo a  major p a r a m e t r i c change, such as the complete ownership i n t e r g r a t i o n of manufacturing where a manufacturer  and r e t a i l i n g .  In such a case,  might have a monopoly on the  retailer's  s t o c k , the number o f s u p p l i e r s c o u l d be reduced to one, yetthe number o f t r i p s , because of the l i m i t s imposed by t r u c k c a p a c i t y and i n v e n t o r y economics, would not f a l l below a t h r e s h o l d not c u r r e n t l y p r e d i c t e d by our model.  In o t h e r  words, the e q u a t i o n s t r u c t u r e developed presupposes e t i t i v e supply s t r u c t u r e f o r the r e t a i l e r .  a comp-  Under o t h e r  than  - 211 -  competitive tions,  (non-oligopolisticor non-monopolistic)  t h e importance o f employment s i z e and t r u c k  m i g h t be e x p e c t e d This trips istics  a  chapter  capacity  arriving  sites  obvious  competitive  site  only  Trip distance  tionship  trip  that  distance rates  The employees,  marketing  basic  related  to retail Finally,  trip  although  areas.  site,  i s the case  affect  The o n l y  shipment  truck  significant  size.  i n t e r m s o f number  i n estimating f o r sawmills,  v a r i a b l e s appear  and t r u c k  the relaprevious  transport but  t o be more  c o r r e l a t i o n a n a l y s i s exposes  t o each r e t a i l e r  I t  t o be i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d  does n o t s t r o n g l y  a s s o c i a t i o n s between v a r i a b l e s :  pliers  This i s  industry.  conforms t o the  i s much l e s s i m p o r t a n t  Partial  trips  industries.  tend  This  supply  supplying  i n t o account the diverse  wood p r o d u c t s  s i z e o f the a c t i v i t y  and t r a n s p o r t  significant.  take  f o r other  i n urban  than  market, and  any time p e r i o d .  i s to increase  forretailers  character-  t h e number o f  from source o f lumber supply,  generation  demand  over  attraction rates  affect of distance  of  with  structure of.the  i s insignificant.  expectation  supply  truck  The number o f m i l l s  i f we  does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y h o l d  to  as a f u n c t i o n o f  i s closely associated  intuitively  t h e volume o f  t h e commodity  and ownership.  at the r e t a i l  capacity  on renewed s i g n i f i c a n c e .  has estimated  of the r e t a i l e r ,  retailer  and  t o take  attracted to r e t a i l  truck  condi-  t h e most  t h e number o f  capacity  sup-  are positively  attraction rates.  retailers  may  be d i s t i n g u i s h e d on t h e bas  - 212  of  t h e i r ownership;  financial ers. larger which  unit,  i n turn  s i t e may  be e i t h e r  o r p a r t o f a commonly owned  The t e n d e n c y shipments  a retail  -  appears  t o be f o r c h a i n  and use l e s s  causes  lower  chain  attraction  individual of  retail-  r e t a i l e r s to take  sources o f lumber  trip  an  supply,  rates.  CHAPTER I X  F O R E C A S T I N G THE VOLUME AND S P A T I A L I N C I D E N C E OF URBAN TRUCK MOVEMENTS  The  purpose o f t e s t i n g models which improve o u r  knowledge o f t h e f a c t o r s u n d e r l y i n g truck  movements i s t o c o n t r i b u t e  modelling in and  and f o r e c a s t i n g urban  Chapter  I I , commercial  frequently  overlooked  t h e demand  towards truck  f o r urban  t h e methodology o f  trips.  As p o i n t e d o u t  v e h i c l e movements a r e an i m p o r t a n t component o f t h e urban  transport  problem.  Subsequent m a r k e t i n g model  tests indicated  estimates  of trip  f o r a cross-sect-ion i n  time, the  can be improved  physical  chapter  sets  model w i l l section  analysis  of  assurance will  when  to forecast  i s always  cross-section  red  not hold  future  account  of firms.  under which t h e model  into  This  the marketing d e v e l o p e d on  trip  generation  crossand  rates. It  variate  by t a k i n g  channel behaviour  out the conditions  or will  data  and explained  distribution  data i s used  attraction  no  demand, u s i n g  that  equations  t o estimate  analysis that  hold.  tempting  to use the r e s u l t s o f m u l t i -  future  events.  i s b u t a snap-shot  the conditions  i nwhich  I n f a c t they probably w i l l  on w h i c h  forecasts  Unfortunately,  i n .time; that  we  snapshot  not, since  a r e t o be based  have occu-  the s e t  are probably  -  but part social  of a larger,  s c i e n c e s , we  214  -  more complex,  can  rarely  be  system.  sure that  phenomena exogenous t o a model w h i c h to  i t , and whose i m p o r t a n c e w i l l  passage  of time.  under which effects into  the  changes future  extrapolations  a r e two  rates which  necessarily  and  the  isolate  the  attempt  to suggest  have.  conditions  The  what  further  Structural  values,  changes,  and p o l i t i c s  such  as  become  significant.  There generation  t h e r e .are n o t  a r e made, t h e more t h e y become  data.  i n technology, tastes,  i n the  realized with  i n those conditions w i l l  of h i s t o r i c a l  increasingly  o n l y be  hold,  least  are nevertheless r e l a t e d  should therefore  our models w i l l  independent those  We  At  types o f change a f f e c t i n g concern this  chapter:  truck  those  trip  which  p p s e L l i m i t a t i o n s t o o n ' theamodel^.cand- t h o s e w h i c h  do  iTo.t. l a T h e r l a . t t e r i d i n c l u d e : (1)  A  change i n the volume o f l o c a l  (2)  A  change i n t h e l o c a l  shipments.  marketing channels  of  manufacturers. (3)  Changes  i n the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  channel  participants.  (4)  Application  to o t h e r urban  (5)  Application  to other  Changes least  i t s coefficients  (1)  A shift  (2)  A  individual  areas.  commodities.  through time which would  affect  of  1 i m i t l t h e e m o d e l f r i y o r l a t •-"  i n an  identifiable  i n the productivity  of  include:  firms  change i n p r o d u c t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ,  w e i g h t p e r volume,  way,  especially  or handling requirements.  - 215 -  (3)  A change i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ownership i d e n t i t i e s  (4)  A choice  (5)  A change i n t h e c o m p e t i t i v e  o f t r a n s p o r t mode  manufacturing  structure of either  i n d u s t r i e s o r marketing  channel  participants Future (1)  Conditions  Changes  systems:  i n output  of  to shifts  the output  demand. tion  activity  changes i n t h e en-  the cross-section marketing  i n the relationship  between  model  and m a g n i t u d e  i n d i c a t o r s which are associated with  may b e i n d i c a t e d b y o r d e r s , Two  aspects  o f these  transport  at the point of produc-  production,  employment,  indicators'  time  or  series  important: their  individual  their  interrelationshipxbetween leads  The ditionally  coastal  temporal  described  fluctuations.  variation  variation  i n terms o f t r e n d ,  I n an e x a m i n a t i o n  sawmilling industry  this  t r e n d , however,  evident: that  followed  (a)  t h e r e was  or lags.  random  o f t h e s e r i e s f o r t h e B.C.  during cyclical  t o the general  a decline i n production  by renewed  time;  c y c l e , and  ( F i g u r e 2 3 ) , we  two d i s t i n c t  that related  through  o f economic s e r i e s i s t r a -  almost 100% i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n  so  ;V  i n d i c a t o r s f o r economic  T h e demand f o r a c o m m o d i t y  shipments. are  :  P o s s i b l y t h e most important-  vironment surrounding relate  W h i c h Do N o t £imi't -the;Model•-"• S- -.  can observe  1959-19 72.  an  Within  components a r e business during  cycle,  1968-1970,  a n d a c c e l e r a t e d g r o w t h , a n d (b) a  seasonal  - 217 -  cycle ter  characterised by spring  lows,  activity  cause ges  a  s  result  a  and p a r t i a l l y  culties. either  mainly  because o f winter l o g supply  The most o b v i o u s  random f a c t o r  sudden drops  or after The  forecasts  sites,-  the strike  ( t o compensate pent-up  are clear:  of this  models based  period  series  forlocal  shipments  very  little  trend o r non-seasonal  series  fortrip  on t o t a l  over-predicted.  for  local  shipments  the  seasonal  cycle  which  cyclical  September-October, therefore  from  representative  will  manufact-  above.  effects.  The  shows Unless  (non-basic) c o u l d be  of the series  i s informative i s the nature of Two p e r s i s t e n t  highs  exist:  Average months a r e February-March  and surveys  be undertaken  and s u r -  employment  generated  The o t h e r a s p e c t  (Figure 25).  summer a n d f a l l .  which  generation  ( F i g u r e 2 4 ) , however  truck trips  strikes,  demand) .  employment i s a d j u s t e d by e s t i m a t e s o f l o c a l  employment, t h e r e f o r e , l o c a l  of  (in i t s antici-  subject to the perturbations, noted  time  diffi-  or both,  i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f t r i p s  seriously  and win-  industries,  i n production, shipments,  implications  show a s t e a d y  early  i s effect  i n the production or transportation  pation)  total  summer h i g h s  o f dependence on c o n s t r u c t i o n  o f volume shipped b e f o r e  uring  and e a r l y  o f l u m b e r movements  i n these months, because  o f t h e whole year,  and a l s o  they  and  should  they are exhibit  less  There i s good r e a s o n t o doubt t h a t t h i s i s i n f a c t random,^since m a j o r w o r k s t o p p a g e s o c c u r d u r i n g t h e summer and/or i n periods o f e i t h e r business r e c e s s i o n o r p r i c e inflation.  Figure 24: BC Coast Sawmills: Local Orders on hand and Local Shipments, 1959-72 Sourc*: Statistic* Canada DBS Cat.No. 35-003  Figure  25:  British Columbia Coast Sawmills:Truck and Local Shipments By Month (1960-1970)  70  r  millions f b m  60 high  50 V  :  ——J  40  median low  30  20  10 months  : U  -I F :DBS Cat.No. 35 - 003  M  A  M  J  A  S  O  (1960-1970)  N  -  fluctuations"in  220  -  volume s h i p p e d  (19 6 0 - 1 9 7 0 ) t h a n m o s t o t h e r  months'..' There  i s a s u b s t a n t i a l body o f l i t e r a t u r e  on  the  demand f o r wood p r o d u c t s , m o s t o f i t e i t h e r w i t h r e f e r e n c e to  cyclical  variation  construction of  demand  of  cyclical  cycles,  and  the relationship with  or to the p r i c e  f o r lumber-.  Two  relationships  and  dated but  business  and  cross-elasticities  s t i l l  relevant  suggest hypotheses  which  studies might  be  2 considered  i n forecasting  study of the period  1 9 0 4 - 1 9 4 8,  consumed i n a c t i v i t i e s cycle. expect  lumber  which  This percentage  demand.  found  that  55%  of lumber  vary closely with  i s increasing,  the general business cycle  i n e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e demand and and t h i s i s s u p p o r t e d by W h i t e , fluctuations  Zivnuska, i n a  and:'we  was  the business may  t o become more i m p o r t a n t  i t s timing. Furthermore, the amplitude of c y c l i c a l  i s tending to decrease  due  t o government  anti-  3 Inflation  policies.  growth .rates, w i t h cyclical  T h u s we  rely  decreasing concern  developments, The  may  i n forecasting  above remarks  aggregate, national  demand.  on  expected  average  f o r the e f f e c t the l e v e l  are appropriate  of  of  demand.  for estimating  In the case of p a r t i c u l a r  urban  2 Z i v n u s k a , J . A. B u s i n e s s C y c l e s and Commercial (New Y o r k : Institute of Public Administration,  Forestry. 1952).  M e a d , W. J . " C h a n g i n g P a t t e r n o f C y c l e s i n L u m b e r P r o d u c t i o n " , J o u r n a l o f F o r e s t r y , (November, 1 9 6 1 ) , 808-13. 3 Economic  White, Council,  D. A. Staff  B u s i n e s s C y c l e s i n Canada. Study 17, 1967).  (Ottawa:  -  areas, tion  the micro-effects  growth,  become tion a  and  important.  of  there  reflection  dominated  by  be  goods The  unstable All so  i s more  elements  are  significance.  Such  set of  economic  increases  t o draw  leading  bases  in city  diversification,  ed  to  trend  seasonal groups ently  patterns  and  toward  o f demand  different  coincident  over  tend  industries'  violent activity  f o r non-durables and  plywood)  (houses  Greater  might,  which  just  demand . f o r d u r a b l e  and  about  should  be  i n turn  cyclical to d i f f e r growth  furniture).  their  however,  economy, relative  suggest  used  in  that  cities  Furthermore, by  might  stability amongst  trends  (paper).  i s more  Vancouver  from Vancouver's.  urban  i s not  more  are normally accompanied  industrial a  a r e a ' s economy i s  The  indicators  in  cause  I f an  conclusions  different  size  which  goods  distinctions  ques-  cycle  (lumber  important i n the  demand  the  transportation)  than  f o r consumer  i t is difficult  with  elsewhere.  popula-  of  raises  industries,  (including  f o r p r o d u c e r goods that  Thompson  cycle.  unstable  construction,  the e l a s t i c i t y  local  unstable  in. economic  than  different  affecting  the n a t i o n a l  expected than  demand  residential  a distinct  cyclically  (lumber)  of  -  In p a r t i c u l a r ,  being of  fluctuations might  factors  221  are  increases be  expect-  since commodity infrequ-  time.  4 A l b e r t s , W. " B u s i n e s s ' C y c l e s , R e s i d e n t i a l Cons t r u c t i o n and the Mortgage M a r k e t " , J o u r n a l p f P o l i t i c a l Economy,- 7 0 (1962), 263-281. C a m p b e l l , B. E . P o p u l a t i o n Change and B u i l d i n g Cycles. (Urbana,Ill: U n i v e r s i t y of I l l i n o i s , Bureau o f B u s i n e s s a n d E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h , 1966) T h o m p s o n , W. R. A P r e f a c e to Urban Economics. (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 , p. 139).  -  When high,  t h e e l a s t i c i t y , o f demand  knowledge  important mating  222 -  of i t s behaviour  as i n d u s t r i a l  growth  future transportation  demand.  Three  sources  (a)  Price,  f o r a commodity i s  and magnitude  and c y c l i c a l  demand  of elastic o r sometimes  factors  resulting  demand  a r e almost  from  as  i n esticommodity  are significant:  anticipated  price,  of the  commodity. (b)  Substitutability  with  other  products  (cross-  elasticity) . '.(c)  The e l a s t i c i t y  o f demand  f o r subsequent  pro-  ducts . In  a survey  for  lumber,  of estimates Rich  found  of the price  that  values  elasticity  varied  from  o f demand  0.2  t o 0.63,  5 with ing  0.25 b e i n g t o measure  dities  goods  costs  o f doing  where  demand  useful  stitution sectors  movement  though  likely.  the elasticity  and i n t e g r a t i n g  urban  growth  t h e most  these  i s inelastic t o be aware  of products  into  from  a comprehensive quite  trends  such  to the  as  lumber  I t i s probably towards  by t h e r e - m a n u f a c t u r i n g making  commo-  model o f  low r e l a t i v e  f o r commodities  of general  attempt-  f o rdifferent  i n the short run.  o f t h e economy b e f o r e o f commodity  o f demand  are probably  so, especially  The p a y o f f s  t h e sub-  and consuming  assumptions  about t h e  production.  R i c h , S. U . M a r k e t i n g -of F o r e s t P r o d u c t s : Tests (New York,: McGraw H i l l , 1 9 7 0 ) , p . 33. See a l s o : R e e d , F . L . C . , " E l a s t i c i t y o f Demand f o r Wood P r o d u c t s " , P a p e r p r e s e n t e d a t t h e A n n u a l C o n f e r e n c e o f W e s t e r n F o r e s t E c o n o m i s t s , Wemme, O r e g o n , ( A p r i l 2 1 s t , 1 9 6 6 ) . and  Cases;.  -  Not  only  relationship would not  between output  be  marketing  by  the  tion  that trips  as  weeks.^  An  is  regress  of  the  lags  i n the  and  f i t as  lead or  the  coastal  B.  duction  and  data,  C.  but  26  nearest  reason-  closely  time.  test  of  time  Howassumpare  same q u a n t i t y  period.  two  the  Carlson on  and  - shipment  s e r i e s and gives  the  two  three  nature  of cycle  select magnitude  month.  shows t h e  shipments.  closely,  cycle for As  expected  shipments  and  C a r l s o n , J . A. "The P r o d u c t i o n L a g " , E c o n o m i c ' R e v i e w , 6 3 , 1 ( M a r c h , 19 7 3 ) , p . 78. production  the  (production)  v a r i e d between  monthly  shipments vary  employment  f o r lumber, based  - production  and  study  more q u e s t i o n a b l e  relationship which  production  local  l a g through  time  i n -  shipments.  employment are  survey  (1959-1965)  which  output  b a s e d on  employees  crude  order  l a g to the  Figure  the  period  appropriate  or  i . e . , t h a t the  i n the  U.S.  An  the  proposed i n this  i s partly  and  also  change  model.  f u n c t i o n of  on  related:  alternative  and  best  a  This  production  sets of  leads  the  are  (shipments)  produced  t h a t the  different  the  truck trips  that production  directly  shipped  to  indicators is a  model i s a l s o based  similarly  found  growth i n , but  a f u n c t i o n w h i c h does not  ever  is  of  hand, p r o d u c t i o n ,  channels.  assumption  related  on  that trips  marketing  able  orders model of  hypothesized and  nature  -  necessarily invalidate  d i c a t o r may The  the  223  "Production period": time and c o m p l e t i o n o f f i n i s h e d  total pro-  production  The  American  between b e g i n n i n g product.  of  - 224  Figure  -  26a: T o t a l Order - Shipment Cycle (1959-65) (Leading and L a g g i n g R e l a t i o n s h i p s )  Orders  P =/(O -l) t  (0)  (0*36)  t  Price  Employment - j ^ Raw M a t e r i a l s *  r  o  d  u  c  t  i  o n  (PI)  (P)  -  S-/(O -l) t  S =/(Pt) t  (0-85)  Shipments  (S)  Key : Y = / ( X ) (R) =Y=a+b(X) ( r ) t - l = t - ( o n e month) z  (0-39)  - 225 -  Figure  26b: T o t a l O r d e r - Shipment C y c l e (1966-70) (Leading and L a g g i n g R e l a t i o n s h i p s )  Orders  O  E m p l o y m e n t ^ Raw  r  o  d  u  c  (0)  P r i c e (PI) =/(PI ) (0- 14)  t  t + 5  t  i  o  n  ( p )  Materials  s =/(°t-i) t  S =/(P ) t  t  (0-30)  Shipments  (S)  K e y ': Y = / ( X ) (R) =Y=a+b(X) ( r ) t - l = t - ( o n e month) 2  (o  -  both  lagging orders  cooreiation  that orders  on  theory  tation the  t-1  are  that orders  1966-19 70,  and  based  are  be  month), but  high  higher  a time of  lumber i n d u s t r y , production  late  best  The sights less of  into  same d a t a  the  costs  local  Shipments ships;  of  i n fact  lags of  tile  that  than  the  shipments  of  how  or  only  shipments  to  give  27).  at  t 3.  In  +  in  s t i l l  only  the  corre-  vague i n -  There  i s much  presumably price  and  t-3  could  do  not  relation-  almost  time p e r i o d s ,  Carlson,  vary  d i s t o r t e d w o u l d be  the  less.  in local  are  used time  no  to  i n  suppose together  data  survey  systems  of  period  might  uncertain-  procurement.  indicators affecting  r a t e s have been d i s c u s s e d  are  knowledge  a hedge a g a i n s t lags  which  estimation  Future  marketing  equ-  less vola-  closely  ( p r o d u c t i o n ) ) i f the  a week o r  they  reason  although  because  increases.  t h r o u g h weak  i n both  changes- i n o u t p u t  generation  sug-  expec-  instability  T h e r e i s no  a reservoir against The  trip  but  inventory  show t o w h a t e x t e n t ties  used  t-1, t-2,  from employment  levels  present)  i n advance of  shipments  b o t h v a r i a b l e s was the  t i n the  l o c a l market i s s u b s t a n t i a l l y  and  test  I t i s also  time  anticipated price,  manner s u g g e s t e d by  available.to  and  poorer  anticipated prices,  (than  (Figure  for exports.  that production  of  market  w e l l have been p r e s e n t e d that the  for  be  lag orders  indicates  in  can  s t o c k i n g up  s t i l l  at  a  lag.  concern here with  the  ally  a  on  greater  B.C.  without  with  production.  partly  that prices w i l l  period  -  (one  than shipments  gested the  by  226  at  length,  truck partly  -  Figure  27;  227  -  L o c a l Order - Shipment Cycle (1959-65) ( L e a d i n g and L a g g i n g R e l a t i o n s h i p s )  Orders  (0)  Price O =/(PIt l> t  +  (PI) (0-19)  Employment Raw  Materials'  Production  (P)  S =/(O -l) t  Shipments  t  (0-19)  (S)  L o c a l Order - Ship-ent Cycle (1966-70) ( L e a d i n g and L a g g i n g R e l a t i o n s h i p s )  Orders  (0)  P r i c e (PI) N.S . Employment. Raw  Materials  Production  (P)  S  Shipments  (S)  t =  y(O _ ) t  3  (0-20)  - 228 -  because  this  enabled  a t e s t o f one o f t h e f a c t o r s on which  t h e m a r k e t i n g model was b a s e d . future  conditions  model (2)  which  can be covered Changes  The n e x t  briefly.  i n Manufacturers'  Local  changes h i s l o c a l  remanufacturer  to retailer  trips  contention  generated  holds  f o r example,  upward  constant the competitive market  retailer  t o whom t h e m a n u f a c t u r e r  that manufacturer,  constant.  trips  might  i n c r e a s i n g l y by-pass  point  o f end-use  through  office  of  activity  this  to the  this  same way t h a t  variability construction  than  estimation  channel  model.  could  retailers  i f the  would  o r any o t h e r  (3)  The, C l a s s i f i c a t i o n  A  d i r e c t t ot h e  f o r example)  either  office.  Some  significant  the inclusion of this I f such  trips  were  be added t o t h e e q u a t i o n i n  were.  However, t h e extreme  o f s h i p m e n t ' s i z e s and t h e dependence on activity  ofthe  manufacturers  own s a l e s  market t o warrant  this  expected.  and ship  site  that  i s n o t indepedent  i s that  middlemen  from  should  structure  t a k e s p l a c e now, b u t i t i s n o t  this  local  channel  wholesalers or their  i n the trip  increase,~  ships  (the construction  enough i n t h e lumber channel  Note  I n o t h e r words,  may b e l o w e r  change i n m a r k e t i n g  channel,  t h e model  accordingly.  and/or  possible  Marketing Channels: I f  distribution  industry  of  possible  do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i n v a l i d a t e t h e  a manufacturer  adjust  four  reduce  actual  t h e p r e d i c t i v e power o f  model. o f Channel P a r t i c i p a n t s :  market i ti s d i s t i n c t l y  possible  that  I nthe  t h e embodyment  -  of the wholesaling disappear. place for  this  turers ers  spatial  have s e e n , c r e a t e  might  time  economy; the. o v e r h e a d  down-channel p a r t i c i p a n t s .  retailers  functions, lets,  i n the  as we  institutions  and  charged  s e r v i c e c o u l d become p r o h i b i t i v e b o t h t o m a n u f a c -  and  and  -  f u n c t i o n i n separate  Wholesalers,  utility  229  the  the  could  i n c r e a s i n g l y take  former s e l l i n g  l a t t e r buying  Instead,  assortment purchasing  not  clear that  personnel  the w h o l e s a l e r  t r e n d towards m a n u f a c t u r e r s  over  wholesaling  t h r o u g h t h e i r own  i n greater bulk  own  manufactur-  and  and  sales  providing  capacity.  i s disappearing,  s a l e s branches  out-  and  their  It is  despite chain  the  re-  7 tailing*  I f the w h o l e s a l i n g  f u n c t i o n does s h i f t  channel p a r t i c i p a n t s , r e - c l a s s i f i c a t i o n should ever,  correct for this i f the  regard duction  as  shift.is  in trip  onto the  estimation  m a r k e t i n g w o u l d be  phenemona o r one is  suspect  place  even i n the  Application  i s of  How-  on  the An  limited  one  pro-  firm, a  model. urban  is restricted  environment  may  s t r u c t u r e since both  A p p l i c a t i o n t o O t h e r Urban A r e a s :  t i o n model whose a p p l i c a b i l i t y  equations.  c o n t r o l l e d by  fiU-r«tRer>-limitation''<c6_Uld-be p l a c e d (4)  institutions  m a n u f a c t u r e r , w h i c h we  a change i n c o m p e t i t i v e  and  of  among  utility  transporta-  t o one and  of  its validity  f o r w h i c h i t was  o f the m a r k e t i n g model, i n c o r p o r a t i n g  set  developed. local  R o n a l d s , K. L. "A S t u d y o f t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n S y s t e m i n the B r i t i s h . Columbia B u i l d i n g M a t e r i a l s I n d u s t r y " , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s n : C o l u m b i a , MBA T h e s i s , A p r i l 196 8. 7  - 230  employment and m a r k e t i n g  -  channels,  to other urban  t h e moHeH'sd.use. - I t c a n b e  would n o t p e r se l i m i t  t h a t t h e model which i n c l u d e s s p e c i f i c rather  than  general  v a r i a b l e s such  ment makes a d j u s t m e n t  areas  marketing  as t o t a l  for application  variables  plant  to other  added  employ-  urban  centres  possible. (5)  A p p l i c a t i o n t o Other Commodities:  said  o f t h e model's  O n c e we k n o w  applicability  T h e same m i g h t  to other  the proportion of production  manufacturers,  exported  the structure of the local  nel  network, the p r o b a b i l i t y  and  the. l a b o u r r e q u i r e m e n t s  and  a d j u s t a b l e models o f t r i p  commodity  p e r u n i t o f commodity,  the  advantage o f the model-type developed  be i n c o r p o r a t e d , w h i c h  Future  W h i c h May  model would n o t w i t h s t a n d  out  b i a s s i n g the predicted t r i p  is  of the bias  space.  tions  form.  That  changes i n these generation  i s t o say that factors with-  rates.  I f the however, i t  that the structure of the predictive  c o u l d be m a n u a l l y  adjusted  _; - •  w h i c h may i n -  i s known o r c a n be e s t i m a t e d ,  quite conceivable  models  Lumiticfche3Marke'tinig M o d e l -  t h e model i n i t s p r e s e n t  the  nature  accurate  o f t h e economy  The f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s a r e o f t h e t y p e validate  sizes,  i s t h a t dy-  i s not true of simple  employment o r f l o o r  Conditions  chan-  "Adjustable" i s s t r e s s e d because  namic changes i n t h e i n d u s t r y and t h e r e s t  b a s e d on t o t a l  area  r a t e s o f a l l manu-  are possible.  can  from  o f shipment  facturers great  groups.  distribution  distribution  generation  be  to incorporate their  equa-  effects.  - 231  (1)  A Shift in Productivity:  employee are important.  -  Two- aspects of output  per  F i r s t , t h e r e i s the q u e s t i o n of  the c o n s i s t e n c y o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p between employment p r o d u c t i o n i n the s h o r t run, technology White has  suggested  being held  and  constant.  that the e l a s t i c i t y of employment  t i o n s i s - g e n e r a l l y g r e a t e r f o r c o n t r a c t i o n s i n output  reducthan  8  f o r expansions.  Knowledge o f the l e a d between employment  and p r o d u c t i o n , as w e l l as the e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r labour w i t h r e s p e c t to output would add c l a r i t y to the  pro-  b a b i l i t y of e r r o r i n survey methods i n much the same way d i d the examination Secondly,  o f production-shipment  as  relations.  and more s i g n i f i c a n t f o r model a p p l i c a t i o n s ,  l o n g e r run changes i n technology  cause changes i n the  t i o n s h i p between employment and output.  The  rela-  lumber i n d u s t r y  has undergone r e l a t i v e l y minor t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n duri n g p a s t y e a r s , and,while the output ues to be lumber  of the i n d u s t r y c o n t i n -  r a t h e r than f i n i s h e d or s e m i - f i n i s h e d pro-  ducts, t h i s c o n d i t i o n should continue. t h a t the reason  We  could  hypothesize  f o r a low r a t e o f i n n o v a t i o n might be  that  i n more p u r e l y c o m p e t i t i v e i n d u s t r i e s (many s m a l l firms) the r a p i d d i s s e m i n a t i o n o f new  technology  r e t a r d s the tendency  to innovate because advantages to the i n n o v a t o r are q u i c k l y lost.  On the s i d e o f p r o d u c t i o n i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t the  impact o f new  machines on the p r o d u c t i v i t y of employees could  White, D. A., op. c i t . , p. 199. " E l a s t i c i t y of employment r e d u c t i o n %• Aemployment/ % A i n p r o d u c t i o n ^  (or  expansion)":  -  not  be  accounted  f o r i n the  Changes i n the nels  are  porate pect  not  only  i n t o the  to  the  labour  functions.  in  retail  retailing  survey The  trip  from t e c h n o l o g i c a l to  Knowledge o f but  require  quite  rapid  unlikely  only  also  of  departures i n the  from  either  transportation  e f f e c t s of  i f a trip  w h i c h may from  f a c t o r s on  change w h i c h  rate  the  changes  study.  result  fleet  of  to  assess.  change i s  v e h i c l e s , and  On  sub-  attraction  generation  than  and  current  res-  other  re-  both  these  hand, r a d i c a l  transportation  capacity  and  many  others.  could  be  important  employment i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g o r  office  efficiency  by  ased volume at  and  sales  these employees the  production  handling)  levels.  effective  integration of  trips  tasks.  f o r the  Some o f  Much o f  should and  i t may  be  transportation  same q u a n t i t y  could  shipped.  ad-  increased  (materials  however,  of  marketing,  reflected in  shipment not,  the  are  i s that  i s meant employment i n m a n a g e r i a l , p u r c h a s i n g ,  vertising,  duced  extent  lumber i n d u s t r y  "non-productive"  of  u n i t s , w o u l d be. h a r d e s t  intensive surveys.  Another  which  load  occur with  of  and  detected  innovation  the  incor-  to  covered under the  capacity,  large-capacity not  quired,  by  truck  l e s s easy  agencies  attraction rates,  changing  chan-  intensiveness  f o r m e r was  be  distribution  C h a n g e may  wholesale) The  are  complements a m a n u f a c t u r i n g t r i p  conversion  or  and  e f f i c i e n c y can  impact of  less  productivity of  e f f i c i e n c y or  firms  of  model.  model s t r u c t u r e .  (retail  ject  -  more p r o b a b l e , b u t  marketing and  232  since  incremore  result in  re-  - 233 -  (2) we  Changes i n P r o d u c t saw t h e c o n d i t i o n s  volume  capacity  can be s h i p p e d . weight  laid  then  down b y H o e l  of the truck  i s less than  capacity  the is  I f the c r i t i c a l  shipment's  commodity  density,  then  the determining factor.  or,  as i s more p r o b a b l e ,  the user  (from f l a t  density  the truck's  critical  a fleet-conversion  density,  Changes due t o p a c k a g i n g at  bution  channel  facturing ciently cess of  f o r example.  employment  the f i n a l  density,  i n trips.  and p a c k a g i n g  product's  volume,  of  cause  rather  than  i f n o t more  likely.  f o r resale  i n the  case, a d d i t i o n a l  f o r the packaging  estimate the increase  i s automated,  technology,  could  o f elsewhere  In this  than  limit.  i s equally  instead  truck  capacity  a r e common, p r e - p a c k a g i n g  the manufacturing plant  deter-  on t h e p a r t  bed t o van, f o r example)  commodity  shipment's  i s greater  A change i n t r a n s p o r t  A change i n t h e shipment's  truck  up a  volume  or  which  will  may m a k e  changes- i n t h e v a l u e o f t h e t r u c k - l o a d  the  the  of the truck  mine t h e amount o f t h e commodity w h i c h load.  f o r the weight  commodity d e n s i t y ,  capacity,  the weight  I n Chapter I I I  determining quantities  I f the c r i t i c a l  capacity/volume  density,  Characteristics:  process  distrimanu-  might  suffi-  However, i f t h e p r o -  comprises  a substantial  theincrease  i n trips  may  part be  underestimated. Apart of  a product  from  density,  influences  the fragility  t h e demand  truck  perishability  f o r transport.  p r o d u c t s may -not t o l e r a t e b u l k h a n d l i n g . n o t be s t a c k e d i n a  or  Fragile  Products which  g e n e r a t e more t r i p s p e r u n i t  may  weight  - 234 -  or  volume than  require  other  density  although  of trips  selecting general  resulting their  of storage.  from  h i s truck  effects  This  Packaging  trips.  Identities:  Centralized  a manufacturing  was h y p o t h e s i z e d  site  should  on t r i p  generation  Manufacturer's  lesser  attempts  These  t o optimize  manufacturer's  flows  are, with  PMT, d u e t o w h i c h we  i s likely, over  a for-hire since  Transportation  carriers,  perhaps  divided  according to  increases  For-hire carriers  operate  o f i n t e g r a t i n g many L T L s h i p m e n t s network,  indifferent  and t r i p  as t o whether  form p a r t o f one c a r r i e r ' s  carrier,  h i s whole network, n o t j u s t  would n o t n e c e s s a r i l y cause  delivery  might  the carrier  market d i s t r i b u t i o n , i n trips.  their  trips.  i n question.  amongst s e v e r a l f o r - h i r e  choices i n  rates:  When a m a n u f a c t u r e r u s e s  reduction of trips  i n Chapter IV.  three non-discreet  transport supply.  maximum r e d u c t i o n o f (b)  cipal  and con-  changes i n product  on v e h i c l e  Ownership  may  t h e demand f o r  significant  effect  emanating  of trips.  (a)  the  costs  manufacturer i s faced with  expect  P e r i s h a b l e commodities  i n t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n ( c o s t - r e d u c t i o n ) o f t h e number and  distribution  a  high  Changes i n T r a n s p o r t  result  can.  i m p r o v e m e n t s may r e d u c e  may o f f s e t  control  The  to their  storage  transport,  (3)  which  r a p i d shipment between p o i n t s o f p r o d u c t i o n  sumption owing or  those  generation  into  further  on t h e p r i n -  a pick  up a n d  r a t e s may w e l l b e  t h e manufacturer's  LTL shipments  network o r s e v e r a l .  - 235 -  (c) carrier  C u s t o m e r PMT:  case,  an e x t e n s i o n o f t h e  the difference being  t h a t o n l y one LTL  m e n t i s p i c k e d u p , whereas t h e c a r r i e r , facturer's rates  PMT,  may  t a k e more t h a n  for-hire ship-  and o f c o u r s e  one.  Trip  manu-  generation  s h o u l d be c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y h i g h e r . The  marketing model o f t r i p  invalidated  if,  port  t o another  supply  the e f f e c t s  over  o f such  future.  This  eration  rates  takes place.  changes  based  on t r a n s p o r t distribution  o f ownership  from  one t y p e o f  on t r i p  trans-  This i s not to say that  c o u l d n o t be m o d e l l e d  argument f o r expected  non-manufacturing, effective  t i m e , a change  g e n e r a t i o n c o u l d be  differences  ownership channel  i n the  i n trip  applies  to other,  institutions.  attraction  rates  gen-  The  can a l s o  be  deduced. (4)  Changes  expect urban  a shift  away  from  goods t r a n s p o r t .  o f movement creasingly used  i n Mode o f T r a n s p o r t :  alternative used  Less  as t h e o v e r w h e l m i n g  modes  and might  are feasible The c a s e  eous  substitutes  of  t o a few  f o rmail delivery  commodities  the l a t t e r  types  o f barges  be i n -  being  t o e x p o r t t e r m i n a l s has a l r e a d y been  For p u r e l y i n t r a - u r b a n shipments,  systems  mode o f  f o r some  obvious  present restricted  i s no r e a s o n t o  On t h e o t h e r h a n d ,  i n the future.  f o r b u l k shipment  mentioned.  trucks  There  are pipeline  rail.  t h e use o f p i p e l i n e s  (non-Canadian)  and t h e t r a n s f e r  pneumatic of liquid  between manufacturing p l a n t s .  i n the Vancouver  and  wood p r o d u c t s  An  i s at  tube or  gas-  example  industry  i s the  236  -  pipeline an  shipment  a d j a c e n t and  of plywood  subsidiary  p r o c e s s may  although truck with  such  trips, a new  on  merely  an  incidence  fabric,  urban  and  The  ing :  cause  a total o f new  magnitude  transport  future,  producpipelines,  reduction i n  sets  of  flows  t h e use  network. of r a i l  of r a i l  transport,  capacity/and i t s impact  i s a""f u n c t i o n . o f  goods movement i n h o u r s  passenger (5)  by  not  of urban  to  transport.  non-urban d i s t r i b u t i o n brought about  f r e q u e n t use  introduction  important f o r urban  the urban  In the  as p a r t o f c o n t i n u o u s  a case would  mode o f The  while  see"more  manufacturing by-products  chemical plant.  more w i d e s p r e a d r e - c y c l i n g tion  -  the  Possible transit  outside  inter-city  and  c h a n g e s may  systems  for  periods of  be intra-  peak  demand. Competitive Structure  Changes i n i n d u s t r i a l  invalidation  o f M a n u f a c t u r i n g and  structure  o f a model c a l i b r a t e d  acceptable working definition  on  can  also  lead  cross-section  of market  structure  Marketto  the  data.  might  An  be:  "those permanent, o r s l o w l y changing, competitive l i m i t a t i o n s of which a f i r m must t a k e account i n f o r m u l a t i n g i t s own p o l i c i e s . The m o s t i m p o r t a n t of t h e s e l i m i t a t i o n s a r e t h e number and s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f b u y e r s and s e l l e r s i n the market, the conditions o f e n t r y o f new f i r m s , a n d t h e e x t e n t of p r o d u c t d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g geographical dispersion."9  and  D.  F.  M a s o n , E . S. , " P r e f a c e " , A n t i t r u s t P o l i c y , , C . Kayson Turner (Cambridge: H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1959).  - 237 -  The and as  producing many  large  firms  market  with  the control  ture  small  increasing  retailers,  by l a r g e r  d e t e r m i n a n t s s we m i g h t a l s o  trend  i s towards  saling  industry  implications  struc-  lumber i n d u s t r y t h e  o f some c h a n g e s  previously,  and whole-  stabilize.  the transportation  may b e b r o u g h t  nature  firms  of  industrial  a shift i n  characteristics will  about a r t i f i c i a l l y  through  This  develop.  not  condition  collusion:  s i g n i f i c a n t changes may  i n an  i n the degree o f  i s that  shares.  through p r i c i n g competition  relat-  demands o f i n d i v i d u a l  change t h e i r market  agreements n o t t o attempt  struc-  differentia-  as competition  The e f f e c t o f a d e c l i n e  product price o r physical  significantly  and product  may b e t h a t  between manufacturing  i n market  e s p e c i a l l y those  i s the competitive  One h y p o t h e s i s  declines,  competition  share  due  and degree o f  integration of the manufacturing  Another aspect  structure.  either  i n part  companies; and a low  add t h e type  to the size of i n d i v i d u a l firms  firms  and  To M a s o n ' s m a r k e t  i n the local  have been d e s c r i b e d  tion.  wholesalers,  sectors. The  ture  characterized  barriers t o entry,  o f l o g supply  integration:  industry i n ,  s i z e d i s t r i b u t i o n and  o f product d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n .  vertical  ing  a wide ranging  market o f mainly  level  o f the lumber  f o r , G r e a t e r V a n c o u v e r c a n be  remanufacturers; to  structure  tacit  i n market  -  Two  broad  238  -  classes of  might u s e f u l l y  be  planning  goods movement:  urban  behaviour tion  to the  a l s o be  f a c t o r s noted  give  inumerable  differentiation of  advantages  types."'""''  m a r k e t may titors  be  The  described  and  i n programmes  to  to  the  previous the  definition,,  entry of  new  and  the  product  e s t a b l i s h e d f i r m s and are  can  Bain  although  distribution  the  economies two  of participants i n  i n terms of  collusion  volume of o u t p u t ,  or price discrimination.  addi-  firms,  to o l i g o p o l i e s . entry,  for  market  Market s t r u c t u r e , i n  behaviour  regarding p r i c e or  tracts,  of  competition  structure of  rise  barriers  large-scale production  pervasive  forecasted  i n the  barriers  i f sufficient,  cited  and  i t s p a r t i c i p a n t s . "^  d e s c r i b e d by  which, has  of  monitored  i n d i c a t o r s of  most the  among  compe-  exclusive  An,indication of  con-  collusion 12  may  be  the  "high A  signify  an  high  rigidity  of  formal  incidence of  o l i g o p o l y , such  as  these  and  perhaps  gopolies  are  s u c c e s s f u l when f i r m s  are  similar, 1 0  ington:  The 1 1  (Cambridge:  Welfare.  even i n the  barriers  M a s s e l , M. Brookings  behavioural  exists  industry  costs  structure over  i n the  i n the  t o e n t r y by  measures  pulp  lumber export  time".  and  paper  market.  market are  other  firms  Olifew,  can  S., I n d i c a t o r s o f C o m p e t i t i o n . I n s t i t u t i o n , 1 9 6 2 ) , Ch. 7.  B a i n , J . S., B a r i e r s t o New Competition. Harvard U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1956).  12 * S h e p h e r d , W. G. M a r k e t P o w e r a n d (New Y o r k : Random H o u s e , 1 9 7 0 ) .  may  Economic  be (Wash-  - 239 -  erected,  and customers  t e n t on minimizing product.  the p r i c e they  i n an i n d u s t r y  thing,  the r i g i d  reduction tion the  price  the f u l l  pay f o r t h e o l i g o p o l i s t ' s  transport  impact o f a recession  firms  e x p e c t e d magnitude and i n c i d e n c e i s the case  ties,  t o produce  non-price competition  search  not  lead  duct  i s basically  rise tured  can argue  The d i v e r s i t y  retailing  s y s t e m h e owns  a m i n i m u m , o r h e may  network,  rates  unless  of r e of  pro-  though the  pro-  c o u n t e r v a i l i n g power w i l l  give  changes.  mes, u n d e r t a k e v e r t i c a l . b a c k w a r d i n the total  and r i s k s  product  from  T h e p o w e r f u l b u y e r may  supply  by  o f commodi-  arises only  a few, l a r g e  transport  line  better  Furthermore the  an emphasis on  and t h e d i v e r s i t y  that  transporta-  business:cycles  industries.  generation  unitization  to oligopsonies: good.  trip  static  packaging and other One  of general  t o a more c o m p l e x . d e l i v e r y  necessarily higher  borne by a  be p r e d i c t e d  the costs  and d e v e l o p m e n t more e a s i l y .  d u c t s may  i n a market  f i r m , because t h e c o n s t r a i n t  encourages  and i t can bear  o l i -  F o r one  Thus t h e  a more d i v e r s e  especially i f i ti s a large  differentiation  may  i n more c o m p e t i t i v e  tends  holds  being  and employment.  towards  demand?  structure probably  i n production  oligopolist  of  for local  demands o f . o l i g o p o l i s t i c  than  or not fully i n -  What a r e t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f a t r e n d  gopoly  decline,  a r e many a n d s m a l l ,  buyers  o f t h e manufac-  e i t h e r , a t t h e two  extre-  i n t e g r a t i o n and o p t i m i z e h i s  manufacturing-distribution-  thus reducing  transport  use h i s power t o e x t r a c t  demand t o  t h e maximum  - 240 -  level  o f s e r v i c e , perhaps exemplified  by. f r e q u e n t L T L  ship-  13 ments, o u t o f h i s s u p p l i e r s .  Large urban  both  examples o f both  food  they have  and d r y goods p r o v i d e  i n c r e a s i n g l y s h i f t e d toward  market power has This ment w i t h i n the  the  overview o f possible  which  problems  (a) modity port may  be u s e d  structure  This  conditions  such  lags  has  which  environ-  indicated forecasting  i t s e e m s may  pose  forecasting are:  Aggregate  and  comtrans-  statistics  and thus b u i l d i n t o t h e  adjustments.  A s i g n i f i c a n t change i n t h e i n s t i t u t i o n a l  o f economic a c t i v i t y , may w e l l  framework;  necessitate  i n the  (employment, p r o d u c t i o n )  cause  and t h e r e f o r e changes  cannot r e a d i l y be a c c o u n t e d  model's  but  as t h e i r  model t o  movement  (shipments).  to estimate  viour of firms,  changes  demand o p e r a t e s  f o r truck  indicators  (b)  the former  a cross-section  output indicators  demand  types,  A s i g n i f i c a n t change i n t h e l a g between  model a p p r o p r i a t e  by  transport  The two f u t u r e  greatest  of  increased.  dangers i n applying  problems.  retailers  suspected  i n transport  forwithin  changes  surveys  or using  the  demand.  current  i n firm behaviour  re-calibration of cross-section  c o n d u c t i n g new  i n t h e beha-  survey  models  either  r e s u l t s from  cities.  Baligh, Market Structures.•  will  H. I I . a n d L . E . R i c h a r t z , V e r t i c a l (Boston: : A l l y n and Bacon, 1967).  other  - 241 -  CHAPTER X  CONCLUSIONS  New  insights  into  t h e movement o f  commercial  vehicles  c a n be g a i n e d  u s i n g an e m p i r i c a l - b e h a v i o u r a l ap-  proach..  The f o l l o w i n g  g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s emerge from t h e  study  o f t h e V a n c o u v e r wood p r o d u c t s  industry:  (1) A n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f g o o d s m o v e m e n t i s a n tial  prerequisite (2)  procedures, portation  t o t h a t o f commercial  There a r e d e f i c i e n c i e s  level  of aggregation,  deficiencies  T h e r e i s no need by t r a n s f e r r i n g  models and methodologies modification. models h o l d  f o r micro-systems  (4)  selection  i n current  trans-  impact case  their  t o extend  of  these  p a s s e n g e r . t r a n s p o r t a t i o n demand  we  should  ensure  of activity  supply,  without  that our  before  especially  (PMT, common c a r r i e r )  on t r i p study,  t h e impact  applying  areas.  Transport  characteristics  vide  etc.)  -  t o t r u c k movement demand  In particular,  them t o whole u r b a n  Sawmills  (variable  movement.  models. X3)  a real  vehicle  essen-  I n the Vancouver  that retailers  own t r a n s p o r t c a u s e d  ownership  o f t h a t supply, has  generation rates. the fact  the  a significant  o f lumber  pro-  increase i n  -  trip  generation  local  shipments being (5)  to  provide  tion  rates at  -  sawmills  marketed  Industrial  with  a high  directly  to  volume  the  l i n k a g e r e s e a r c h may  more t h e o r e t i c a l  and  empirical  of  retail be  level.  expected  informa-  f o r f u t u r e c o m m e r c i a l v e h i c l e movement s t u d i e s . (6)  physical  Various  aspects  distribution  should  good movement a n a l y s e s distribution structure, and  242  the  of  the  firm  and  and  role of  of be  industrial an  integral  structure part of  forecasts; especially  other  indicators  power and  risk  of  and  urban  the  size  competitive  i n marketing  mechanisms f o r b a l a n c i n g o r d e r i n g and  channels,  carrying  costs. (7) tionships,  Product  physical attributes,  requirements, (8)  should The  of most p l a n n i n g (9)  a  into  modal  market area, that being  area  data  w i t h i n the  survey  transport  truck  capabilities  more complex u r b a n r e g i o n s  and  t r u c k usage  split  was  virtually  be  than  not  forecasting  a problem.  used,  truck to  the  dock.  be  taken  industry  Within  a  case  certain  truck;  only major  as  purposes,  should  a l l s h i p m e n t s move b y  Vancouver,  expressed  V a n c o u v e r wood p r o d u c t s  modes a r e  s h i p m e n t s by  should  service competition  In the  other  peculiar  r e q u i r e d f o r adequate  at a d i s t a n c e . . For  price  their  rela-  agencies.  For  account.  study,  and  weight/volume  quantified.  well  megalopo.li,  probability  intermodal  be  survey  movement s t u d i e s a r e  especially  characteristics,  beyond  complication  -  (10) vised but  can  variations  -  Several sources  (marketing)  they  243  be  model  are  measured  i n modal  of data  error  significant  and  i n the  for i t s application,  corrected.  The  main ones  split  between  firms,  ment, non-product  (waste)  vehicle  movements, and  period over  trips  which  cross-section,data (11) be  are  are  surveyed  special  disturbing  the  goods movement e s t i m a t i o n - * p r o c e d u r e s ,  Also  d a t a on  number o f  and  ideally  collected  be  assumptions normally  but  addition  example the percentage re-manufacturing functions, functions  but  in their (13)  Data  this  this  trip  could  of elimi-  demand f o r so  i t should  variables  to r e t a i l standard  attractions  set  of a l l ,  trip  sites..  i t complements t r i p  than  generation  places  such  system p e r s p e c t i v e .  may  distribution  (for  rather  identifying  activity  trip  can  marketing.  economic a c t i v i t y  f o r the but  they  Waste i s , a f t e r  of marketing  g e n e r a t i o n by  analysis,  the  movements.  more s i g n i f i c a n t l y ,  o t h e r economic  provide data  portation  and  on  not  improves  total  a l o n g w i t h those on from  but  studies,  products.  of product  sites)  also,  which  analysed under a d i f f e r e n t  commercial  The  time  effectiveness  vehicle  quality  subject to disposal, (12)  nations  actual  environmental  from  employ-  the  case,  w a s t e m o v e m e n t aire i n i n c r e a s i n g  re-cycling  are  collected.  ignored without unduly  a substantial  measures of  or within  Waste movements a r e a  nate  re-  be  collected  truck  desti-  Not  only  does  stage  of  trans-  generation  data  - 244 -  in  describing  t r u c k movement a c t i v i t y  (14) be  at least  size.  trip  1  rates a t the r e t a i l  a s much a f u n c t i o n o f f i r m  attraction  of suppliers  than  attraction  I n the Vancouver case,  retailers ber  Trip  behaviour  the variation  sites. site  as  i n wood  may  firm products  r a t e s w a s e x p l a i n e d b y t h e num-  and t r u c k c a p a c i t y f o r each  retail  site  number o f e m p l o y e e s . (15)  marketing  The a v a i l a b i l i t y  data allows micro  o f aggregate  F o r example,  of  l a g s between l o c a l  insignificant  s h i p p i n g was s u p p o r t e d  industrial  and macro assumptions  t o be compared.  and  at individual  i n this  study,  the  employment,  by t h e a n a l y s i s  and  and  findings  assumption producing  aggregate  industry  statistics. (16) ings  s h o u l d be p u t i n t h e i r  Time s e r i e s to observe for  Cross-section survey  of the variables trends  forecasting,  help  to indicate  biasses  total  data and r e s e a r c h  temporal p e r s p e c t i v e .  s h o u l d be examined  and long-run c y c l e s ,  i n survey  results.  of  movements f r o m  conducted  over  is  w e r e much c l o s e r  A survey  common i n u r b a n  provided  variation,  argued  t r u c k movethat  surveys  Summers t e n d  t o be  be  certain  o f t h e summer m o n t h s a l o n e  biassed results.  and  t o the annual  transport data c o l l e c t i o n ,  useful which  a plant should  a p e r i o d o f one month, and t h a t  months o f t h e y e a r than others.  may b e  The s t u d y o f l o c a l  sawmill industry  vehicle  i n order  s h o u l d be c o n d u c t e d  ment i n t h e V a n c o u v e r individual  which  and s e a s o n a l o r weekly when s u r v e y s  find-  average which  would  have  - 245 -  characterized slow l o c a l  by employee v a c a t i o n s ,  Lastly, the future  model o f urban  cable  should  truck  a contention  in  most urban  conditions  movement w i l l  be e l a b o r a t e d  is  products  disputes,  and  demand. (17)  the  labour  industry case  research. study,  would  go u n e x p l a i n e d  firms  and t h e c o m p e t i t i o n  or will  which  n o t be  i n a l l further studies.  and g u i d e l i n e which  transport  under  without  appli-  This  i s too r a r e l y observed C e r t a i n l y i n t h e wood  changes i n t r a n s p o r t  demand  i n s i g h t into the behaviour  of  structure of the industry.  Commodity and c o m m e r c i a l v e h i c l e movements i n urban areas have r e c e i v e d years  because o f t h e i r  ciency our  resources  and energies  and u n r e l a t e d  attempted  to place  behavioural,  only  the  demand  are  urban  that  create  attention i n recent  t o urban economic  life.  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C a t a l o g u e No. 12-501, Dec. 1970.  Ind. No.  251  Sawmills,  Planing Mills  ments p r i m a r i l y -  timbers, mill box  engaged i n sawing  dimension  products shook  other  than  (boards, and o t h e r  as s h i n g l e s , cooperage  stock and  standard  products.  manufacturing  lumber  Establish-  spoolwood, l a t h  from logs o r b o l t s ;  patterned  ducts  stock)  such  lumber t o produce  in  and Shingle M i l l s .  i n d r e s s i n g and working  matched, s h i p l a p p e d o r  Establishments  hardwood  flooring  primarily  engaged  and m i l l w o r k  lumber a r e c l a s s i f i e d  pro-  i n Industry  No.  254.  252  Veneer  and Plywood M i l l s .  engaged i n p r o d u c i n g 254  Establishments  plywood o r  primarily  veneer.  Sash, Door and Other M i l l w o r k P l a n t s .  Establishments  primarily  products  as  sash,  engaged i n manufacturing doors,  work, mouldings also  windows  and door  mill frames,  and hardwood  flooring.  includes establishments  primarily  ufacturing  interior This  wood-  industry  e n g a g e d i n man-  p r e f a b r i c a t e d , wood-framed b u i l d i n g s o r  pre-fabricated laminated  such  panels  for buildings or i n  beams a n d s t r u c t u r e s .  manufacturing  - 255 -  256  Wooden B o x F a c t o r i e s . in  manufacturing  fruit  258  Coffin  wooden boxes  and vegetable  establishments  Establishments, p r i m a r i l y and p a l l e t s ,  baskets.  This  making box shook  and Casket  Industry.  engaged  crates,  industry includes  f r o m sawn  lumber.  Establishments  engaged i n t h e manufacture o f c o f f i n s ,  primarily  c a s k e t s , and  other morticians' supplies.  259  Miscellaneous ily in  manufacturing including  ducts  are beekeepers'  ladders, board.  Furniture  such  marily  primarily  as b a r r e l s ,  made o f s t a v e s  includes  supplies, step-  engaged i n manufactur-  casks,  kegs,  and other  are included i n this  industry.  and F i x t u r e I n d u s t r i e s .  and o f a l l m a t e r i a l s .  shops.  Office  Furniture Manufacturers.  engaged i n manufacturing  Establishments  household This  u p h o l s t e r y , cabinet making  repair  ily  pro-  s a n i t a r y woodwork and p a r t i c l e  engaged i n manufacturing  kinds  classi-  ( c l o t h e s p i n s , washboards,  Household F u r n i t u r e Manufacturers.  all  primar-  Principal  and poultrymen's  and t i b s )  Establishments  cooperage  not elsewhere  sawdust b r i q u e t t e s .  woodenware  pails  containers  264  wood p r o d u c t s  fied,  ing  Establishments  engaged i n wood p r e s e r v a t i o n ; i n wood t u r n i n g and  excelsior,  261  Wood I n d u s t r i e s .  furniture of  industry also  and f u r n i t u r e  Establishments  office  pri-  furnitures  primarsuch  as  -  desks,  chairs,  256 -  tables,  filing  cabinets o f a l lkinds o f  materials.  266  M i s c e l l a n e o u s F u r n i t u r e and F i x t u r e Establishments furniture sional  also  Pulp  and Paper  facturing paper, 272  chemical  industry  mills  n e w s p r i n t , book  and w r i t i n g  or building  woodpulp; and  and paper  mills  manu-  papers,  Kraft  and i n s u l a t i o n  board.  Establishments  pri-  engaged i n manufacturing a s p h a l t - s a t u r a t e d and s i d i n g s ,  roofing  felts  marily  engaged i n manufacturing  paper  cans;  o r paper  decorated  and paper  board  and fancy  and paperboard  roofings.  Establishments  pri-  s h i p p i n g boxes o r  made o f c o r r u g a t e d o r s o l i d  set-up  and s h e a t h i n g s ,  and m i n e r a l - s u r f a c e d r o o l  Box and Bag Manufacturers.  boxes;  engaged  includes pulp  o r mechanical  Paper  fibre  This  and s p r i n g s .  This  and paper  smooth-surfaced  or  and p r o f e s -  Industries.  paperboard  shingles  cases  store  and a l l m a t e r i a l s .  Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers. marily  2 73  public buildings  matresses  Mills.  producing  combined pulp  i n manufacturing  includes establishments primarily  and A l l i e d  mills  engaged  of a l lkinds  manufacturing  Paper 2 71  and f i x t u r e s ,  furniture  industry in  primarily  Manufacturers.  fibreboard;  boxes;  paper  covered  folding  bags;  paperboard  containers not  -  elsewhere  257  classified.  -  Many e s t a b l i s h m e n t s i n c l u d e d i n  0 this  2 74  industry  produce bags  and o t h e r c o n t a i n e r s  synthetic materials  and o f m e t a l  Miscellaneous  Converters.  ily  Paper  engaged i n c o a t i n g ,  converting paper lishments to produce paper try  also  treating,  and p a p e r b o a r d .  use  and p a e r b o a r d .  similar  and  paper plates  stationery, and  Establishments primarcutting  and o t h e r w i s e  Many.of  these estab-  and m e t a l  foil  to those manufactured  Important products of this  i n c l u d e waxed paper,  envelopes  foil.  synthetic materials  articles  of  of indus-  crepe paper, paper napkins, gummed p a p e r ,  cups, m a i l i n g  tubes.  wallpaper,  

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