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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Transport development and regional economic growth in northeastern British Columbia Aylsworth, James Arthur 1974

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TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NORTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA by JAMES ARTHUR AYLSWORTH B.A., University of British Columbia, 1970 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR T H E DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the Department of Geography We accept this thesis- fas conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA August, 1974 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e a n d s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e H e a d o f my D e p a r t m e n t o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . D e p a r t m e n t The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a V a n c o u v e r 8 , C a n a d a D a t e (]AXCpl}Jr /<n*f A B S T R A C T The topic of this thesis is the relationship between transportation modes and regional economic development. The objective is to determine the influence of the mode on the pattern of development. The three most significant variables in transmitting the influence are seen to be: the construction pattern and attributes of the transport systems; the resources of the region; and the stage of development of the region. The basis of the relationship is that theoretically and empir ical ly , in a frontier region transporta-t ion is one of the most effective and controllable factors influencing industrial investments. The relationship is examined by associating private investments in northeastern Brit ish Co lumbia with the demand and supply of transportation units in the region. The investment statistics are drawn f rom government publications while the transportation units are documented in a variety of ways. F i rst ly , the historical development of the networks is discussed. Then, a measure of the road network is developed to simulate the changing relative lengths of the road l inks over t ime. Investment in industrial categories in the study region was found to be related to attributes of transport networks, such as rates and frequency. Correspondence with f i rms in the study area supplied additional information about transportation needs and costs. The empirical data on transportation networks are discussed in terms o f theories o f industrial location and regional economic development to arrive at explanations o f the spatial and temporal distr ibution of the investment. — ii — The conclusions drawn f rom the study verified that investments in certain sectors of the economy were related to specific transport modes. Investments in some primary industries were dependent on certain transport units supplied by the rail network. Cheaper freight rates, volume and size restrictions and frequency characteristics of the rail mode made it attractive to those industries which tradit ionally had low value-to-weight ratio goods. Investments in the primary industries were also associated temporally with changes in the rail network. The wood products and paper and allied industries received investments temporally and spatially related to changes in the rail network. Investments in industries l inked with these primary industries were also documented showing temporal sequence patterns. The findings demonstrated that in a resource region, transportation units with specific characteristics are desired to facilitate development of resources. Cost was found to be one dominating consideration. Some industries which used the rail system, could have used the road network but it would have cost 10-30% more to do so given the characteristics of the existing roads. It was found in other industries that the frequency of service or volume capacity characteristics of the rail system were superior to the road system. These characteristics were found to be the most important in the study region and were incorporated into a model of transport related develop-ment in a frontier region. The first stage of the model covered the develop-ment of an interregional l ink to join the region wi th its potential markets. This interregional l ink or path was at first supplied by a road network and is traditionally of poor qual ity. The second stage coincides with the "opening up" of the region. Resources are developed and some processing of these resources begins. A t this stage, a rail network with its lower rates, large capacities and interregional characteristics is the most useful mode. During this stage the region is s lowly beginning to develop its urban hierarchy, but is still sparsely settled. The third stage is reached when activities are l inked both in a forward and backward direct ion, to give the region a greater range of products, and in general products wi th a higher value-to-weight ratio. Because of this and because the urban hierarchy begins to develop, the highway network becomes more competitive. The model therefore presents a way of looking at the changing funct ion of road and rail networks as a frontier region develops. This changing funct ion is based on the characteristics of the transport modes, the production mix of the region and the level o f development of the region. - i v -TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract i List of Tables v i List of Figures viil'i Chapter 1 - INTRODUCTION (1.1) Foreword 1 (1.2) Background to the Thesis 2 (1.3) The Method 4 (1.4) Preview of the Thesis 5 Chapter 2 - THEORIES OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION (2.1) Introduction 8 (2.2) Regional Growth Theories 9 (2.3) Transportation Geography Studies 11 (2.4) Studies Concerned with Network Analysis 13 (2.5) Summary 22 Chapter 3 - THE STUDY REGION AND ITS TRANSPORT NETWORKS (3.1) Introduction 25 (3.2) The Study Region 27 (3.3) The Physical Geography of the Northeastern Region 29 (3.4) Natural Resources of the Northeastern Region 30 (3.5) The Transportation Networks of the Region 33 (3.6) The Rail Network 37 (3.7) The Road Network 46 (3.8) Measures of Accessibility 52 (3.9) The Unweighted Road Network 53 (3.10) The Rail Network 60 (3.11) The Weighted Road Network 68 (3.12) Summary 76 - v -Chapter 4 - THE CHANGING INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY REGION AND B.C. (4.1) Introduction 79 (4.2) The Changing Labour Force Structure of B.C. -1951-1961 79 (4.3) The Changing Population Structure of Northeastern B.C. 86 (4.4) The Primary Industries 90 (4.5) The Secondary Industries 94 (4.6) The Tertiary Industries 98 (4.7) Summary 103 Chapter 5 - PRIVATE INVESTMENT AND TRANSPORTATION MODES (5.1) Introduction 106 (5.2) The Area under Investigation 106 (5.3) Sources of Investment Data 107 (5.4) Investments for the 1953-1971 Period 108 (5.5) The Transportation Industries 116 (5.6) The Paper and Allied Industries 116 (5.7) Petroleum and Coal Products Industries 118 (5.8) The Wood Products Industries 119 (5.9) Other Industries 122 (5.10) Summary 129 Chapter 6 - SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS (6.1) Object of the Thesis 132 (6.2) Results of the Thesis 133 (6.3) Limitations of the Thesis 136 (6.4) Model for Development of a Frontier Region 137 (6.5) Final Remarks 141 Bibliography 143 Appendix 156 — v i — LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I Nodes in the Study Area 39 II Road Network Accessibility Measures for 1952 54 III Road Network Accessibility Measures for 1962 55 IV Road Network Accessibility Measures for 1971 56 V Changes in Road Network •Accessibility from 1952 to 1971 (Unweighted Distances) 58 VI Rail Network Accessibility Measures for 1952 62 VII Rail Network Accessibility Measures for 1958 63 VIII Rail Network Accessibility Measures for 1968 64 IX Rail Network Accessibility Measures for 1971 65 X Changes in Rail Network Accessibility from 1952 to 1971 66 XI Road Accessibility Measured for 1952 (Distances Weighted) 70 XII Road Accessibility Measured for 1962 (Distances Weighted) 71 XIII Road Accessibility Measured for 1971 (Distances Weighted) 72 XIV Changes in Road Network Accessibility from 1952 to 1971 (Distances Weighted) 73 XV Labour Force in British Columbia (Percentage) 1941, 1951, 1961, Actual Figures and 1970, Forecast 80 XVI Employment by Industry Groupings: 1970 (For B.C.) 81 XVII Labour Force in British Columbia 1941, 1951, 1961, Actual and 1970 Forecast 83 — v i i -XVIII Population Changes: B.C. and C D . 10 88 XIX (Estimated) Populations in the Prince George-Quesnel Region 89 XX Labour Force by Industry Group — C D . 10 91 XXI Labour Force by Category - C D . 10 93 XXII Manufacturing Employment in C D . 10 and B.C. 96 XXIIII Change in the Number of Taxpayers and Manufacturing Employees in C D . 10 100 XXIV Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Employment in C D . 10 101 XXV Private Investment in Northeastern B.C. (In $'000) 109 XXVI@ Private Investment in Northeastern B.C. (Percentage) 111 XXVII Percentage and Actual Investment in Industrial Categories 112 XXVIII Percentage and Actual Investment: 1953-1971 114 XXIX Private Investment in Northeastern B.C. — By Year and Industrial Category (Percentage) 115 XXX Shipments (Sales) of Sawn Lumber and Ties from Northern Interior Mills 121 XXXI B.C. Grain Carloadings: 1950-1970 128 — v i i i -LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1. British Columbia Census Divisions and The Study Region 28 2. Census Division 10 — The Peace River Area 31 3. The Study Network 34 4. Rail Network 1952 38 5. Rail Network 1958 40 6. Rail Network 1968 41 7. Rail Network 1971 42 8. Road Network 1952 47 9. Road Network 1962 48 10. Road Network 1971 50 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my advisor Dr. K.G. Denike for his advice and encouragement in the preparation of this thesis. I would also like to thank=Dr. Robert N. North for his suggestions and help. My thanks also go to Jan, whose encouragement was needed and appreciated. - 1 -C H A P T E R 1 I N T R O D U C T I O N (1.1) Foreword The object of this thesis is to study the relationship between regional economic growth in a resource regiona and its dependence to a large (but statistically indeterminate) extent on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the transportation inputs to the region. In this thesis, regional economic growth is taken to be represented by the amount of private investment in the region. A resource region is taken to mean a region in which"! the natural resources form the major factor in the economic fabric of the region. The quantitative and qualitative aspects of the transportation inputs wi l l refer to the attributes and t iming of the introduction of the. transport networks. The thesis examines the relationship in three stages. In the first stage the resources of the region are discussed so that the potential fo r development of the primary sector (i.e. the agricultural, forestry and mining activities) can be understood. The second stage involves an examination of the development, and a quantif ication of the transport networks of the region. F inal ly , the third stage outlines the amount, t iming and distr ibution of private investment in the study region (the northeastern region of Brit ish Columbia). The third stage also contains a discussion of this investment and its relationship to the characteristics and development of the transport networks in and with the region. A relationship between regional economic development and transportation networks is suggested because of the nature of the region. This - 2 -i nvo lves t h e natu ra l resources o f t h e r e g i o n , the i s o l a t i o n o f the r e g i o n f r o m the m a j o r m a r k e t s f o r i ts p r o d u c t s a n d t h e f r o n t i e r n a t u r e o f t h e r e g i o n . T h e f r o n t i e r na tu re o f t h e reg ion is d e m o n s t r a t e d b y : sparse s e t t l e m e n t , an u n d e r d e v e l o p e d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e (espec ia l l y a n i m m a t u r e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n n e t w o r k ) , a d e p e n d e n c e o n p r i m a r y a c t i v i t i e s , a n d a p o o r l y d e v e l o p e d h i e r a r c h y o f u r b a n p laces . T h e bas ic t h e m e o f t h e thes is is t h a t , in t h i s t y p e o f r e g i o n , the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c t o r is b o t h a very necessary a n d p r a c t i c a l f a c t o r f o r the e n c o u r a g e m e n t a n d p r o m o t i o n o f reg iona l e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . T h i s t h e m e is suggested as b e i n g the m o s t rea l i s t i c f r o m b o t h a t h e o r e t i c a l ( reg ional d e v e l o p -m e n t t h e o r y ) a n d p r a c t i c a l (range o f c o n t r o l l a b l e var iables) v i e w p o i n t . T h e r e l a t i o n s h i p is v e r i f i e d b y an e m p i r i c a l e x a m i n a t i o n o f d a t a o n p r ivate i n v e s t m e n t in t h e r e g i o n a n d a n e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n n e t w o r k s o f t h e r e g i o n . T h e d a t a f o r t h e p r i va te i n v e s t m e n t is t a k e n f r o m p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t s ta t i s t i cs o n reg iona l i n v e s t m e n t . T h e m e a s u r e m e n t o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n n e t w o r k s c o m e s f r o m d a t a genera ted w i t h i n t h e thes is , based o n d i s t a n c e m e a s u r e m e n t s and t h e na tu re o f t h e r o a d a n d ra i l n e t w o r k s . A f t e r the r e l a t i o n s h i p is e s t a b l i s h e d , i t is a n a l y z e d a n d i n t h e f i n a l c h a p t e r an a t t e m p t is m a d e t o d e v e l o p a genera l m o d e l f o r reg ions c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y s i m i l a r var iab les . (1.2) B a c k g r o u n d t o t h e T h e s i s A s suggested above? t h i s thes is is based o n t h e f a c t t h a t f r o m a t h e o r e t i c a l a n d p r a c t i c a l v i e w p o i n t , the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c t o r is i m p o r t a n t f o r e n c o u r a g i n g a n d p r o m o t i n g reg iona l e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . T h e t h e o r e t i c a l v i e w p o i n t is t ha t v i e w p o i n t t h a t can be j u s t i f i e d a n d s u p p o r t e d f r o m l i t e r a t u r e o n - 3 -regional development and transport networks. The practical viewpoint deals with those developmental variables (e.g. location of production, production costs, timing) that are to some extent controllable in the real wor ld . The former viewpoint wi l l be dealt with in the second chapter in the context of a literature review. The latter viewpoint is dealt w i th in chapters 3, 4 and 5, as it is recognized as a major contr ibuting factor to the final outcome of regional change. A s an introduction to the theoretical viewpoint, it is noted that there are two main theories on regional economic development, the stages theory and the export base theory. The stages t h e o r y ' stresses the internal evolutionary changes which are related to qualitative changes in the transport networks which allow resources to move to their optimal uses. The theory traces the development process f rom the subsistence agricultural (primary) to service (tertiary) stage. The export base theory emphasizes the importance of the external demand factor. It suggests that capital is drawn to a region when profits are visible. Growth is then assumed to depend on the expansion of exports. This theory also traces the complete development process f rom an agricultural to industrial society. This thesis draws on the theories of regional development outlined above, but makes no attempt at covering the same scope. Rather, it concentrates on part of this developmental process, that part which covers the initial expansion of the primary sector. A s a result, there are only some factors that can be taken directly f rom the stages or export base theories that wi l l have a bearing on the development considered in this thesis. These factors are based on the characteristics and initial assumptions about the - 4 -region under consideration. The characteristics and assumptions that apply to both these general theories and the study region are; that the region possess a basic transportation network, that the region possess some other basic infrastructure facilities, and that the primary sector is recognized as being important (or potentially important) to the region. There are also characteristics and assumptions which do not apply to the study region although they apply to either the stages or export base theory. They include: the presence of a commercial rather than a subsistence agricultural sector, the ability of the region to generate its own financial capital, and the ability of the region to influence its development process through self-generated technological changes. There is consequently, a difference between the characteristics and assumptions of the traditionally accepted theories of regional development and those which apply to the region under study in this thesis. Therefore an independent approach was developed which drew out not only from the traditional theories and ideas of regional development but also from the more recent transportation geography literature. This latter body of literature draws out, in a more explicit form, the concept of the disaggregation of space through its network analysis, measures of accessibility and its more spatial viewpoint. (1.3) The Method The method consists of three basic steps. The first step is the development of an understanding of the region and its characteristics. This involves an inventory of the natural resources of the region, including - 5 -their extent, location and amount. The second step is a documentation of the development of the transportation networks of the region, which involves determining their function, timing and quality. It is in this stage that a measure of the accessibility of the network is developed. The final step consists of relating the private investment in the region to the (characteristics of the) transportation networks. This is demonstrated by examining the demand for transportation units and the supply of these by the different transportation modes. This allows the attributes and characteristics of transportation modes to be evaluated within the framework of the developmental process and resultant regional industrial linkages. (1.4) Preview of the Thesis The thesis is laid out in a manner that develops the ideas in the three steps outlined in the previous section. Chapter 2 lays the foundation for the thesis by reviewing the literature in the field. It contains a review of regional development theories, transportation geography and network analysis literature. This chapter introduces those theories, ideas and techniques that will be used in the thesis and should provide an understanding of the scope of studies in transportation in general and of network analysis in particular. Chapter 3 brings together some of the necessary data about the study region, including the physical characteristics, the natural resources and the transportation networks of the region. The historical development of the road and rail networks is described and quantified so that a measure of accessibility for the modes is developed. Chapter 3 also considers the flows - 6 -of goods on the highways of a northern frontier region. This demonstrates the type, amount and direction of freight moving on this mode to this type of area, so that the relative importance of this mode can be established. Chapter 4 provides some ground workncfofc. chapter 5 by establishing the stage of economic development of the study region compared to the province. One of thesefactors that is important in determining the type of growth of a region is the stage of development of the region at the beginning of the study period. Some background information about the level of development of both the study region and the province is therefore given in chapter 4. Chapter 5 analyzes the changes in private investments over the twenty year study period and takes this as one measure of the impact of the transport networks. This is examined by means of a questionnaire in which some of the companies that have invested in the area were asked to assess the importance of road and rail transportation to their investments.^  Many of the firms, especially the larger resource processing companies, replied that rail transportation was vital to their existence. Chapter 6 brings together the main findings of the thesis and tries to develop a model that will summarize the stages of growth of this region. It is hoped that the findings can be formulated into a model that will have applicability in other regions with similar characteristics. - 7 -REFERENCES Webster, 1970, p. 41 2See Hoover (1948); Losch (1938); Clark (1940); M. Thomas (1964) 3See North (1970); Tiebout (1962); M. Thomas (1964). ^See Appendix for a discussion of the questionnaire. - 8 -CHAPTER 2 THEORIES OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS (2.1) Introduction The process of economic development in frontier regions consists of an interrelated series of changes in their economic parameters brought about by "sh'oeks" to the economic system. These shocks to the system (e.g. the addition of a road into a region, the discovery of a mineral deposit) are transferred to the rest of the system in a manner that is related to the nature of the region's economy. The type, extent, nature and timing of economic change can therefore be predicted given the nature of the original shock to the system. Regional economic growth requires an initial impetus to begin the growth process, and some theories suggest that this impetus often comes from the development of the resources of the region. It is suggested that, given a certain level of settlement and development, there are two variables that are traditionally catalysts to growth. Either an increase in demand for a resource or a change in the relative comparative advantage of a region's products, can mark the beginning of economic development. Either change leads to economic growth, but both implicitly assume that transportation is an important variable. The exact importance varies, depending on the theory examined. The following sections in this chapter consider: first two general regional develppment theories; then some narrower transportation themes in a developmental context; and finally specific transportation network - 9 -studies. This allows the importance of the transport factor to be progressively considered in greater depth, beginning with a rather loose relationship and proceeding to a much more detailed relationship. This lays the foundation for using the more detailed relationship later in the thesis. (2.2) Regional Growth Theories The process of regional economic growth is often discussed in the framework of two general theories, the stages theory of growth and the export base theory. Both are based on location theory with the former concentrating on observed internal structural changes and the latter on aggregate effects of external influences. Both theories reserve an important place for the influence of changes in the transportation links within and to the region. The export base theory^ centers on the importance of trade (external demand) in the growth process. The stimulus for growth is seen in the external demand for the products of the region. This demand results (if certain other conditions are met) in the influx of capital into the region and this is seen as the impetus to the growth process. The region develops nonbasic activities to support and service the basic employment, but it is the basic or export sector that determines the rate and amount of growth. The continued growth of the region depends on the type of activities that form this export base and the ability of the region to encourage new export activities. Although this is not a thorough review of the export base theory, it covers the main idea of the theory that in some regions growth depends on external forces of demand, the resources of a region and the type of industries that are attracted to the region. One of the factors that is important for both the initial stimulus of growth and for the later expanded growth, is the development of the transfer facilities of the region. This is important because it changes the relative position of the region to - 10 -its markets (and thus alters the comparative advantage of the region) and because it influences the type of linked activities that are subsequently attracted to the region. While the exact importance of the transport factor is not considered in the export base theory, its influence is nevertheless recognized; The stages theory of development3 is based, as the name suggests, on the idea that a region progresses through stages from a subsistence agricultural stage to a service stage. The theory is based on location theory and observed structural changes. The structural changes are brought about by the increasing per capita income which results in a shift in regional demand from agricultural to manufacturing and service products. The initial steps in the structural changes depend on two conditions being met; the reduction in transfer costs and the beginning of traded These changes result in increased per capita income, development of local industry, and the beginning of other structural changes. The rising per capita income results in the above mentioned shift in demand, with the result that the region changes from a region based on agricultural activities to one based on manufacturing or service activities. This process is dependent on the development of a transfer system both in the earlier and later stages. In the initial stage, the reduction in transfer costs helps the resources to move to their best use and this is a critical factor in the initial increase in per capital income, which allows the economy of the region to move out of the primary stage. When the region is moving through the secondary stage, the transport links are again of vital concern in both the processing of minerals and the development of manufacturing industries. Both the export base theory and the stages theory of develop-ment are worthy of greater consideration than they have received here. However, - 11 -the aim was not to thoroughly review these theories, but to consider their main ideas and point out the importance to them of changes in their transport networks. This thesis is concerned with just a part of the total growth process covered by these theories and focuses mainly on the transportation variable and its influence in the growth process. No attempt is made to develop a comprehensive model that considers the complete growth process nor the complete range of variables within the economic landscape. Therefore, the review of these models and the models that follow have been purposely curtailed. (2.3) Transportation Geography Studies J.O. Wheeler^ has suggested that the establishment of a theoretical base for modern transportation research within geography, can be traced to E.L. Ullman. Ullman related the concepts of spatial interaction, transportation and circulation,^ and with H.M. Mayer^ substantiated transportation's place in geography by relating the concepts of area, spatial interchange and areal differentiation with that of transportation. This allowed transportation to be viewed in a broader context than was possible under the more traditional view favoured by Hartshorne (1966, p. 19) who believed that transportation should be examined within the concept of areal variation. However, the precedent for viewing transportation in a new and wider scope had been set and during the next twenty years transportation geography became a more widely recognized independent field of research. Wheeler (Ibid.) points out that B. Thomas was concerned with the direction of research in the field of transportation geography. Thomas (1956, p. 2) saw three major focuses of researchh emphasizing:" (1) the means of transportation, such as the type of animals or vehicles employed, (2) the nature of the goods carried, and (3) the routes followed by the various types of transportation and the resulting patterns on the earth's surface." He saw as one of the important objectives in transportation geography, the description of the "nature of transportation as a feature - 12 -of the earth's surface and to explain why it occurs in a given place, time and manner" (Ibid.). Wheeler suggests that this type of approach soon gave away to a more detailed and theoretical approach. Vasilevskiy (1963) divided transportation geography and its aims into three divisions: (1) a general transportation geography which he divided into the geography of traffic (freight and passenger) and the geography of transport routes (transport nets, lines, and nodes), (2) the geography of individual forms of transport all of which carry freight and passenger traffic but which differ in both the character of the routes and the technical means used, and (3) regional transport geography which focuses on transport systems of both individual countries and regions. These divisions, while not mutually exclusive, provide one framework within nwhicfchtransportation geography can be viewed. Appleton (1965) believed that there were two basic approaches to transportation geography, the functional and the morphological approach. He believed that there was a bias towards the functional approach which should be corrected, and described the difference as being that in a functional study, geographic change would be seen as the product of highway development whereas in a morphological study the attention would be focused on highway development as a product of geographic change. Wheeler points out that while this imbalance has been corrected to a certain extenty by studies that have dealt with measures of forms of networks within regions,** Appleton's division has not received wide acceptance. Wheeler (1971, p.8) suggests his own breakdown of transportation geography into a threefold division of research focuses based on concepts of "(1) networks: their location, structure and evolution; (2) flows on networks; and (3) the significance and impact of networks and flows on space-economy." Wheeler felt that these concepts were theoretically based, interrelated, easily placed in a temporal dimension and central to other branches of geography, and therefore of a sufficient scope to allow for thorough research. - 13 -The approaches of Ullman, B. Thomas, Vasilevskiy, Appleton and Wheeler are representative of a class of studies which I have labelled studies of transportation themes in a developmental context. They cover a wide range of geographical theory and contain a framework for a more detailed examination of transport networks. The third major group or type of studies considered in this chapter is those concerned with the development of network analysis. This is now a well developed and widely used technique for examining, in an analytical framework, the relationship of transport networks and regional economic growth? A review of some of the more important works im a historical framework is attempted in the next section. (2.4) Studies Concerned with Network Analysis The use of graph theory and network analysis to study transportation systems has developed as a branch of economic geography within the last 15 years. Garrison's 1960 study "Connectivity of the Interstate Highway System" was one of the first to use graph theory and network analysis. Since then it has become an important and often necessary tool in regional transportation studies. During the early 1960's,^ the work in this area of geography centered around outlining the basic techniques and establishing bench mark statistics. In more recent years, the attention has turned towards more sophisticated techniques with greater emphasis on quantification and allocation problems. Conceptualizing transportation systems as networks is based on geometrical and geographical concepts. The main geometrical concept is that of connectiveness and involves such terms as edges, vertices, paths, routes, etc. Kansky (1963, p.1) defined a transportation network as "a set of geographical locations interconnected in a system by a number of routes." Transportation systems can therefore be defined in terms of networks which become an abstract representation of reality. These networks can be - 14 -quantified and compared with (quantified) economic variables to determine the extent of interdependency. This quantification becomes a central aspect of network analysis. The nodes of the network are quantified in relation to their position relative to other nodes in the network and to themselves over time as the network expands or contracts. This quantifieatiiornnof nodes provides measures of their connectiveness and the changing connectiveness is assumed to have an important influence on the changing or developing economic system. In 1960 Garrison pointed out that any highway system could be viewed as a graph and that this would allow the relative locations of nodes to be quantified over time. He set up a basic network, defined the major elements of graph theory and included a description of some simple accessibility measures. His work became a basic reference point for geographical analysis of transportation networks. Nystuen and Dacey (1961) related the theories of nodal regions and central hierarchies by analyzing intercity flows. They suggested that the "direction and magnitude of flows associated with social processes are indicators of spatial order in the regional structure of urban society" and that the problem is to develop a method "capable of quantifying the degree of association between city pairs in a manner that allows identification of the networks of strongest association" (Nystuen and Dacey, 1961, p.29). They wanted to analyze "the functional association of cities with an area" by the use of graph theory in which: the nodal region is defined on the basis of the single strongest flow emanating from or moving to each of the unit areas in the vicinity of aa central place. The region is delimited by the aggregation of these individual elements. The hierarchy of central places is determined by the aggregation of the smallest central places whietehare dependent upon a single larger center for the functions they lack. This nesting of cities defines the organization of networks of cities and the position of each cityty within the network. Such nesting depends upon the - 15 -available bundle of functions and the relative dominance of bundles (Ibid., p.32). They believed that only when there were significant theoretical conslusions which are verified empirically was the application of graph theory valid. In the study quoted above, they were able to verify that in Washington state, when using telephone calls as a measure of interaction Seattle was the dominant centre. But the significance of the article was in the use of graph theory, in connection with central places and nodal regions, to measure the magnitude of flows and thereby develop some method for verifying spatial order. However, the major work in the early 1960's on transportation networks and economic change was that of Kansky (1963). His was a major study because: (1) it was the first to develop a wide set of measures that could be applied to transportation networks^ s and because (2) it related these measures with indieesesof economic change in an attempt to establish a functional relationship. Kansky's review of graph-theoretic measures was drawn from mathematical theory in general and graph theory in particular. In his empirical analysis Kansky accepted the graph-theoretic measures as valid measures for the sstructure of transportation systems and compared changes in these over time with changes in economic indices! Using multiple regression analysis he was able to conclude that "economic characteristics are the major factor influencing the structure of transportation networks" (Kansky, 1963, p.52). Kansky (Ibid., p.81) was thus one of the first to be able to demonstrate that "the structure of transportation networks and the economic characteristics of countries appear to be functionally related." He also demonstrated (by multiple regression of railway and highway networks with indices of consumption of electrical energy per capita and sales per capita) that there was a definite relationship between kinds of networks and - 1 6 -certain types of economic growth. This analysis demonstrated that variations in the sales of electric energy per capita were associated more with higher order transport networks than with lower order networks. Kansky also demonstrated that there was a correlation between the structural development of railway networks and economic growth (Ibid.. p'. 103). But while demonstrating and verifying some important ideas, Kansky failed to deal to any degree with the question of inter-modal competition and its effect on economic growth and development. In summary Kansky transformed network structure and economic variables into numerical variables and related these by statistical analysis. By generalization of the numerical results, three concepts were formulated to account for deviations between network structure and economic characteristics. These were: (1) complementarity of measures, (2) exogenous factors and (3) additivity of transport networks. Kansky suggested that these concepts could be used as tools to facilitate the development of theory. He believed that his findings would facilitate formulation of general statements (theory) that explain the relationships between structural changes of transportation networks and locational and magnitudinal changes of regional economic factors. It is thought that these theoretical statements might constitute an integral part of a general theory of transportation networks. (Kansky, 1963, p. 105). The further development of theory in this area was facilitated by this bench mark study. < Garrison and Marble (1965) extended the theory of transpor-tation networks by a series of empirical investigations. Their work was based on two assumptions: (1) that the characteristics of the transportation system are some function of a given set of variables and (2) that models are needed that can forecast the levels of all factors involved. Their study - 17 -used the variables of population, area, gross domestic product, slope, rainfall, etc. with aggregates such as the number of cars, trucks, rail cars, etc. to develop regression equations. These equations, it was suggested, could be used as forecasting devices to relate transportation networks and levels of economic development. This study also reviewed an earlier work by B.J.L. Berry on the Indian economy which dealt with the basic factors underlying the variations in measures of degrees of development. Berry's study verified the fact that as manufacturing became more highly developed, regional interdependenciesesbecame stronger. This, combined with the assumption that the characteristics of an area help to determinei the structure of a transport network, allowed Berry to use his results as a forecasting device. Kanaan (1965) measured the transport network structure of Syria and related this by multiple regression to spatial variations in the distri-bution of population, economic activity and physical features. This allowed the variables which had a significant effect on the transport networks to be isolated. From this, Kanaan was able to determine in which areas there was a lag in the development of a transport system. He also related a series of independent variables to the network structure and obtained results that suggested that economic and physical factors were strongly related to road network structure, but that population distribution was weakly related. Kanaan thus added more weight to the assumption that there are measureable lead and lag effects of transportation systems on economic variables. Kissling (1966, p.6) suggested as a hypothesis that "the relative highway accessibility levels of urban places in a regional urban system are significantly related to the structure of urban economic activities in that urban system." He then developed a series of accessibility indices which represented different types of accessibility and tried to determine which of these measures best related accessibility to urban economic structure. Some of Kissling's conclusions are of particular interest to this thesis and will be discussed at some length. Kissling concludes, on the basis of the accessibility measure he developed and the indices he used for urban economic structure, that none of the dimensions of the wood industry, the textile industry nor the real estate and storage industries were related either positively or negatively with any of his twelve measures of accessibility. He concludes that the reason for this is that "accessibility appears related to activities which are primarily urban in character rather than being resource oriented. Accessibility to raw materials is not one of the resources incofporated in this study" (Kissling, 1966, p.134-5). However, Kissling while including a measure that related the highway network to the railway network, does not look at the inter-modal competition directly, nor the type of services supplied by the railway mode. Also, as Kissling draws his conclusions with reference to a region that has a particular mix of resources, his conclusions would not be applicable to other regions. Another finding of interest is his conclusion that while the mining industry and accessibility are related "inacessibility is a keynote of the mining industry in the study region" (Ibid. , p. 141)} Kissling points out that the reason for this is that mining towns usually ship their exports by rail and his measures related primarily to (time and cost considerations of) highway networks. Generally Kissling's analysis produced conclusions that lend support to existing theory. The accessibility measures that were significantly related to urban economic activity in Nova Scotia in 1964 were: (1) access to nearest neighbour of equal or greater size (related to all economic dirrrenp-s?c?ns); (2) access to inter-provincial routeways (related to four economic activity dimensions);a and (3) access to the Province of Quebec and access to commercial airports (related to three economic/!.activity 'dimensiionsj.r-rr None of the other measures of accessibility were significantly related to urban economic activities. -19-Kissling suggests some of the conclusions that can be drawn from his study: Spacing in nterms of truck operating and time costs is a significant element conditioning the competition and scale of activities at any one place and, in the author's opinion is a more meaningful expression of intervening space than straight geometric distance. Also, functional complexity is better expressed by measuring activity levels than by assuming that population size is directly proportional to functional complexity. (Ibid.f p.177) The investigation of urban economic activity distribu-tion and accessibility levels in 1951 in the region confirmed the hypothesis that the relationships should remain stable through time. In thei interim changes occured in the structure of the regional highway net-works altering relative urban accessibility levels, but the spatial distribution of urban economic activity in the regional system remained in equilibrium. Whether highway construction encouraged growth in some activities at particular urban locations or whether development of new enterprises in specific urban centers first created a demand for highway improvement, is impossible to say. Most probably both factors were influential at different times and at different sections of the network. What is impor-tant is the apparent response one way or the other which maintains stable accessibility-activity relationships. (Ibid., p.177-8). Kissling points out that his study dealt only with highway accessibility and that the inclusion of another transportation system would be beneficial for a more realistic picture. Therefore, while his conclusions are of value, the use of these results for building regional transportation and regional economic development theory would not be entirely s satisfactory. The application of Kissling's conclusions to other situations must be restricted by another consideration. His measures are based on the development of a transportation system based on an urban hierarchy which evolved over a period of years. His conclusions should therefore not be applied to a region at an early stage in the process of development, as such a frontier region would have a rudimentary urban hierarchy. Gauthier (1968) investigated the relationship between changes in accessibility and the growth of urban centers. He assumed that there was a "high degree of interdependence between the development of a transportation system and the geographic pattern of urban economic growth" (Gauthier, 1968, p.77). His model begins with an inflow of capital into a developing economy. This leads to changes in the road network which affect the pattern of economic development through changes in accessibility. This produces changes in the patterns of spatial interaction and manifests itself in differing rates of economic growth and urban change. Gauthier's article generates two relationships; a relationship between network changes and increases! in the value of production and a relationship between increases in accessibility and growth in urban population. O'Sullivan (1969) attempted to be much broader im scope. He attempted to: generalize on the relationships between the nature of human behaviour, the cultural and physical environment, the transport system and the spatial structure of society. It is intended to suggest that the effort involved in overcoming distance is the major determinant of the system (O'Sullivan, 1969, p.3). He pointed out that: differential ability to undertake movement or differential appreciation of the cost of movement result in central place hierarchy, threshold market areas, areal specialization in produc-tion and various scales of political, cultural and social units, zones of influence and regions (Ibid., p.4). O'Sullivan draws two interesting conclusions: In economic terms investment in transport facilities which reduce the cost of movement, extend potential markets and - 21 -resource bases, (can) make possible areal and functional specialization in production according to comparative cost advantage and thus a growth in wealth and the area integrated into a regional economy is limited by the onset of spatially diminishing returns to scale, which point is determined by the effects of distance friction and the technological level on market thresholds and the ranges of goods and services (Ibid., p. 58-61). At this point it is useful to review two studies that have used some of the concepts that have been introduced and apply these to the area covered by this thesis. Wills (1971) looked at the problem of relating "highway investment to the patterns of highway oriented economic growth in (the) interior of B.C. between 1953-1966." (Wills, 1971, p.2). He was trying to determine which came first: economic growth and then the demand for transportation or transportation changes and then economic growth. His analysis suggested that "traffic flow became more adjusted to highway structure about three years after structural change" (Ibid., p.53). Wills concluded that since his analysis verified that economic growth led changes in nlevels of accessibility by approximately six years, it was resource based exporting primary industries and not changes in the highway network that produced or induced growth in the resource based areas such as B.C. This led to the conclusion that increases in the capacity of highways follow when transportation facilities cannot meet existing demands or when scale-economies are to be reaped with large units of investments and when permanent communities are established. Some of Wills' conclusions on the causes of regional growth differ from those of Kissling. While Wills saw natural resources as the leading factor in promoting growth, Kissling concluded it was urban activities and transport networks. But neither author considered in any detail the influence - 22 -of rail networks on regional growth. This omission meant that an important variable was left out of theiri investigations. Their conclusions were also influenced by the fact that they were essentially looking at developed regions. Denike (1972) related changing accessibility of regions in British Columbia with investment in that region. He demonstrated that there was a difference in the type of investment attracted to a region depending on the level of the region. The sequence of investments during the development of a region from an undeveloped to a developed region were (1) invesments show up first through wages, (2) next through retail sales, (3) then in manufacturing and (4) finally through population, as population becomes the agent of growth. Denike also demonstrated that provincial government invest-ment in railways altered the accessibility of nodes to their markets and that the impact of public investments in a region depended both on changes in transportation networks and the level of development of the region. (2.5) Summary This chapter has concentrated on two areas; (1) introducing basic economic development theory and basic network and graph theory and (2) reviewing some of the more important studies which laid the foundations for using the concepts in transportation (geography) studies. Within (2) some of the works discussed, were studies which used these concepts in the study region. This was done not only as a discussion of techniques, but also to lay some of the groundwork for the thesis. As a result, the idea of a changing network structure being related to and being an influence on the type, timing and location of economic development has been shown to have a theoreticalaibase and has been put in a regional context. These studies described the influence of one system (transporta-tion) on another system (economic) and have suggested that these systems are interdependent to a certain degree. Besides this other facts were intro-duced as being important in promoting regional economic change. The importance of modal attributes, structure of networks, level of economic - 23 -development, and nature of the region were mentioned. Chapter 2 has therefore brought out a number of important factors that need to be considered when examining the theme or relationship that is to be considered in this thesis. Now that the precedent for examining these factors has been established, the next two chapters introduce these factors within the study area of the thesis — the northeastern region of B.C. - 24 -REFERENCES 1 See Daly (1940); North (1970); Tattersall (1962) and M. Thomas (1964). 2 Stabler, 1968, p. 14. 3 See Hoover (1937); Losch (1938); Clark (1940). 4 Stabler, 1968, p. 12. 5 Most of the arguments quoted and studies cited in this section were taken from an article by J.O. Wheeler (1971). 6 Ullman (1953, 1954 and 1956). 7Ullman and Mayer (1954). 8 See Kansky (1963); Taaffe? Morrill and Gould (1963). 9 Harvey (1969), p. 218. 10 See Kansky (1963); Garrison and Marble (1964); Kanaan (1965); Kissling (1966). - 25 -CHAPTER 3 THE STUDY REGION AND ITS TRANSPORT NETWORKS (3.1) Introduction Chapter 2 introduced the concept of graph theory and network analysis by reviewing a series of studies on the influence of transport networks on the economic landscape. Various factors or concepts were introduced (e.g. accessibility, inter-modal competitive factors, lead-lag relation-ships, etc.) which were determinants of the interdependency of the two systems. Chapter 3 explores some of these factors in the study region. As a first step, the study area is defined and outlined in map form and in descriptive?eterms. This area contains only part of the transportation systems which make up the total transportation network of B.C. While the relationship between the transportation and economic systems is considered only over the area defined, these systems extend beyond and are influenced by the national and international transport and economic systems. However, it would be beyond the scope of this thesis to consider more than the regional transportation and economic systems. Then some of the important variables mentioned in Chapter 2 are considered and examined. As an initial step, the physical landscape of the region is reviewed. (It has been suggested^ that the structure of transportation networks is related to physical as well as economic factors. While there is no attempt to relate these in a statistical fashion in this thesis, the possibility of such an influence is suggested). A brief summary of the natural resources of the region follows. Some authors mentioned in Chapter 2 have acknowledged the interrelationship between natural resources and economic change and - 2 6 -this is one of the assumptions underlying the thesis. The assumption is that particular natural resources tend to encourage and produce a predictable pattern of regional specialization of production and that this has an important effect on the type of transportation unit demanded and the type of growth experienced by the region. Following this section, attention is focused on the transportation networks. The networks are outlined and the major nodes and links defined. This historical development of the rail and road networks is traced and changes in the networks dated. The rail network is examined over four periods of change (section 3.6), and the road network over two periods (section 3.7). After the networks are described, a measure of accessibility is derived for the networks so that along with the dates of the major periods of change and development, a relative measure for the nodes in the network is generated. This produces a statistical description of the changing relative position of each node over a series of time periods. The accessibility measures will not be used in this thesis to the exclusion of the morphology of the system but are included in order to help evaluate the significance of this type of measure in this type of regional development. The flow of commodities on the highways is the next variable considered. Statistics from a study of trucking along the Alaska Highway are presented to give an indication of the type and extent of the freight moved on this mode. This is presented here to demonstrate the importance of certain nodes within the network and to indicate what type of freight is carried on this mode in this type of region. These factors, together with those on the levels of development of the study region presented in chapter 4, set the stage for the examination of the theme presented in chapter 1. This synthesis occurs in chapter 5, and chapter 6 consists of a summary and evaluation of this synthesis; - 2 7 -(3.2) The Study Region The area under investigation in this thesis is in northeastern B.C. and includes more than one quarter of the province. This area (see Figure 1) includes (1) all of Census Division 10 — which is the Peace River Region and (2) part of Census Division 8 — which is the Cariboo-Chilcotin Region. The Census Divisions are those used in the Federal Censuses of 1951 and 1961. Census Division (CD.) 10 has an area of 82,533 square miles, while that part of C D . 8 under study in this thesis has an area of approximately 23,000 square miles. Taken together this is the region that I shall refer to as the study region and/or the north-eastern region of B.C. The census areas that make up the study region represent two types of regions and were chosen to illustrate different regional growth patterns. The Peace River Region is essentially a frontier region with a sporadic settlement, few access routes, a resource based economy, and a fluctuating growth pattern.^  There is no dominant service centre in iithis region as the two largest centres, Dawson Creek and Fort St. John, are of about equal size. The extension of the transportation networks into this region has promoted economic growth but has not favoured one centre over another. The conditions in the Cariboo-Chilcotin Region represent a situatierensimilar to, but with some important differences from the Peace River Region. The Prince George-Quesnel region was a frontier region, but can no longer be described as such. While still possessing some characteristics of a frontier region (such as a resource based economy and a sporadic settlement pattern) it has in other ways progressed beyond the frontier state (i.e. it has a stable growth pattern and a large secondary sector). But it still has enough characteristics of a resource region to be of interest in this analysis. Without the inclusion of this area, it would be difficult (given the limited economic development in the Peace River Region) to obtain a realistic picture of the stages of development that mark a frontier-resource region. 28 -FIG. I : BRITISH COLUMBIA CENSUS DIVISIONS - 29 -Besides this factor, it was decided that the inclusion of this area might reflect other factors that would not appear in the Peace River Region, but which would be important in this type of study. In particular, the influence of the transportation networks on service activities in a central place the size of Prince George (population approximately 35,000 in 1971) could only be included in the study if the Prince George-Quesnel area was included. (3.3) Physical Geography of the Northeastern Region The physical geography has an influence on the natural resources, the transportation network's layout and therefore the economic structure of a region. The exact extent of this influence varies depending on particulars of the relief, soils, drainage, geology and forest cover of the area. The Peace River Region is composed of two major physiographic regions, the Interior Plains in the northeast corner and the Rocky Mountain system in the western portion. The Rocky Mountain system runs from the northwest to the southeast and consists of the Rocky Mountain Trench and the Rocky Mountains. The Interior Plains cover over half of the area of the region giving a flat or rolling landscape with generally poor soil cover and large areas of muskeg. Within the Interior Plains section is an area of soils well suited to agriculture. This area runs from Chetwynd in the south to Fort St. John and beyond in the north, providing one of the basic factors of the region. The Rocky Mountain Trench and Mountains lie to the west of the Plains and form a gently rolling landscape. The Rocky Mountains represent a barrier to movement in the area and as such have restricted growth and connections with the rest of B.C. While providing a barrier, the mountains have not yet proved to be an area of mineral deposits, although - 30 -the geological structure suggests that there is potential. The section of the Cariboo-Chilcotin Region under study is composed entirely,! of the Interior Plateau which gives the area a gently rolling landscape cut by numerous river valleys. (3.4) Natural Resources of the Northeastern Region The pattern of natural resources of the region is influenced by the physical geography. In the Peace River Region there are three natural resources which are a significant influence on the economy of the 4 region. The soils of the region are a major factor in the regional economy. Commercial farming centres almost exclusively in an area bounded by Hudson's Hope and Chetwynd on the west, arid north of Fort St. John and south of Dawson Creek on the east (Figure 2). While this represents the area presently farmed, soil surveys conducted in the last few years have suggested that the amount of land that is potentially arable is over 2,000,000 acres (compared with approximately 400,000 acres now in n agricultural use). The development of much of this other agricultural land is dependent mainly on demand and access to markets.^  This area of farmland (which forms part of the Interior Plains) and the rest of the Interior Plains, is an area of coniferous forest (basically spruce and pine) which is small and in general, poorly developed. Except around Fort Nelson, it is not likely to provide a basis for a forest industry. However, besides agriculture, this area possesses deposits of oil and natural gas which have formed the basis for some growth and much capital investment." The Rocky Mountain System provides more extensive as well as larger forest cover and thus represents an area with a resource base that has good developmental prospects. This area of the Peace River Region contains - 31 -FIG. 2 : CENSUS DIVISION 10 - THE PEACE RIVER REGION - 32 -large stands of mature timber that now is more accessible as a result of the creation of Williston Lake behind the W.A;C Bennett Dam. The Peace River Region (CD. 10) contains approximately 13% of the volume of mature timber of the province and 23% of B.C.'s total acreage of mature timber (Regional Index of B.C.. 1966, p.512). The south-western portion of this region contains about half of the mature timber of the region while the region around Fort Nelson contains the majority of the immature timber. While thel lumber and sawmilling industry of the region has traditionally been confined to the Dawson Creek region, both the southern and northern parts of the region represent potential growth areas. The mineral resources of the area have not been a major factor in the development and growth of the region. There have been few major mineral production sites since 1950 in C D . 10 arid at the present time (1973) while there is considerable expectation in a number of areas, nothings of any significant size is underway. The exploration in the area is related to the improved access (both rail and road) as transportation is a critical factor for two reasons in this area: (1) it is a major expense in the total cost of production and (2) this area is on the periphery of markets for most minerals. Potential exists in such minerals as copper,- nickel, silver, lead and zinc as well as some industrial materials including limestone, clay/ and shale7 The fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) have played a role in the development of certain parts of this region and are likely to continue to do so in the future. The oil and gas development is concentrated around Fort St. John and Dawson Creek and in the Fort Nelson area. (The impact on the region is less than the capital investment in this industry would suggest in both the number of jobs and the linkages, but this is a result of the nature of the industry and not the region). Future development and growth prospects in this industry remain promising because of the - 3 3 -growing market in Canada and the United States. However, the magnitude of exports of these products is determined by political as well as economic factors. Coal deposits are now in the process of being developed in the Chetwynd area and other deposits may be developed depending on market conditions. The critical factors in this case are the quality of the coal, the economic considerations of demand for this coal and accessibilityty to markets. (3.5) The Transportation) Networks of the Region It was suggested earlier that the timing of the development of the transport networks was an important factor in the economic development of regions. To investigate this, the transport networks were examined at different time periods when links were completed or groups of linksk were added to the existing systems. Rather than drawing the road and rail networks in regular map form, the networks will be represented as simplified graphs. While this results in the loss of some relevant information, the benefits of greater levels of abstraction and a clearer picture of the basic spatial structure of the regional networks were felt to justify this approach. The study network (see Figure 3) consists of 26 nodes representing communities in B.C. and Alberta. These communities are connected by links, and a number of links can be called a path. Paths can be considered as being either interregional or intraregional. Interregional and intraregional paths will be more fully discussed later in the chapter, but basically interregional paths are structurally, functionally or economically o linked from one of the four gateway nodes or regions to the nodes in the study area and intraregional paths are those not directly related to the gateway nodes. - 35 -The important gateway nodes are numbers 1, 17, 21, and 22 representing Vancouver, Prince Rupert, Edmonton and Calgary respectively. These are important for northeastern B.C. because these are the nodes through which the majority of exports from this region are exported and through which the majority of imports are imported. Vancouver is the main rail outlet for this region as it is the southern terminus of the provincial railway and the largest port in B.C.. Thus, rail shipments destined for Asia, Latin America, Europe or Africa are most likely to go through the port of Vancouver. Rail shipments for the central U.S. use the rail connections at Prince George and then move eastward through Edmonton and Calgary. The importance of these gateway nodes when considering the road network appears to be different. Again, no comprehensive figures are available, but from estimates for truck traffic on the unpaved part of the Alaska Highway, some estimates can be formulated. A study for the Department of Northern Affairs and National Resources called Improvement  Program for the Alaska Highway (1966) generated figures for Canadian carriers of freight to communities on the unpaved portion of the Alaska Highway. This unpaved section runs from mile 80 to mile 1,220 at the Alaska Highway. It? therefore excludes most of the settlements in the study area. However it represents the only survey available on truck traffic in this region that deals with commodity ando origin-destination statistics and therefore provides a picture of commodity flow in a frontier region. It shows that of the 2,414,191 loaded vehicle miles of traffic destined for Canadian Alaska Highway communities in 1966, 10% or 250,822 loaded vehicle miles originated in the Vancouver area, 47% or 1,132,225 loaded vehicles miles in the Edmonton-Calgary area, 2% or 49,841 loaded vehicle miles from other prairie points and 41% or 981,303 loaded vehicle miles from Canadian Alaska Highway communities. Of the 841,716 loaded vehicle miles moving south 30% or 250,122 loaded vehicle miles terminated in the Vancouver area, 8% or 68,474 - 3 6 -loaded vehicle miles in the Edmonton-Calgary area, 58% or 49,744 loaded vehicle miles at Canadian Alaska Highway communities. (Improvement Program  for the Alaska Highway. 1966. pp. A-28, A-29). The traffic for this part of the Alaska Highway thus originated either in the EdmontDn-Calgary area (47%) or from the communities them-selves (41%) while the southbound traffic terminated mainly in the communities themselves (58%) or in the Vancouver area (30%). The north- -bound traffic is about three times the southbound traffic (2,414,191 vs. 841,716 loaded vehicle miles) and for both north and southbound traffic general freight makes up the majority of vehicle miles travelled by Canadian carriers (2,531,775 followed by bulk petroleum 904,718, house trailers 51,356, and household effects 70,904) (Ibid., p. A-32). Of this total, the Canadian northbound freight is composed of about 70% general freight, of which approximately 58% originates in the Edmonton-Calgary area, 20% in the Vancouver area, 4% from the Canadian prairies and 18% from local movements. Of the total southbound freight, 30% is general freight. Of all non-local southbound general freight, 57% terminates in Vancouver, 40% in the Edmonton-Calgary area and 3% on the prairies. The main products being shipped south (besides asbestos and mail) include used machinery and equipment, empty beer bottles, used pipe, household effects, some lumber and tourist automobiles. Much of this (especially the empty beer bottles, lumber and tourist automobiles) terminates at either Fort St. John or Dawson Creek (Ibid., pp. A-18, A-19). While there are limitations in applying this data to the area of this study (e.g. the completeness of the survey might be questioned or the fact that it applies to areas not served by rail link, or that the economic makeup of the area covered by the survey is different from the area under investigation in this thesis), I believe the general trends that can be observed in this Alaskan study will apply to the study area of this thesis. One of the most significant trends observable from this survey is the trend for highway freight in this region to be about as intraregional as interregional. - 3 7 -The above figures were quoted at this stage partly to justify the choosing of the four gateway nodes for this area and to give a roughs: indication of the type of goods carried north and south on the road network. I believe that the same general mix of goods will move both north to and south from the study region as from the communities on the Alaska Highway, especially in the northern part of the study region. If this assumption is accepted, the importance of the nodes of Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver can be justified for the road network. The importance of Prince Rupert is based on the fact that it is a gateway node for one of the other road networks of the region. (3.6) The Rail Network Figure 4 is a simplified map representing the partial rail network in 1952. On this map, the rail links that are of interest in an examination of the northeastern region are located. The names of the towns, cities and villages represented by the nodes are listed in Table I. The railways represented, include the British Columbia Railway (formerly the Pacific Great Eastern), the Canadian Pacific Railway, the Northern Alberta Railway and the Canadian National Railway; but no distinction need be made in this representation as the aspect that is being examined is the existence or lack of a rail connection with one of the four gateway nodes, not intramodal competition. Figures 5, 6, and 7 represent the rail network at different time periods. The only changes in the networks that are of interest in the thesis are the extensions of the British Columbia Railway (B.C.R.) north-wards -from Srince _ r . . , . , . i U . . 1 r i r „ wards from Prince George. Figure 4, which represents the network in 1952, demonstrates the structure of the network at the beginning of the study period. The link between Quesnel (7) and Prince George (8) was completed in 1952. The railway reached Quesnel in the 1920's but until 1952 there had been no further extensions and the railway had remained a static enterprise. FIG. 4 : RAIL NETWORK,!952 I L L U S T R A T I N G R A I L C O N N E C T I O N S WITHIN T H E S T U D Y A R E A A N D C O N N E C T I O N S T O T H E G A T E W A Y N O D E S - 39 -TABLE I NODES IN THE STUDY AREA 01 North Vancouver 02 Squamish 03 Lillooet 14 Fort Nelson 15 Hudson's Hope 16 Terrace 04 Hope 05 Clinton 06 Cache Creek 07 Quesnel 08 Prince George 09 Kennedy 10 Mackenzie 11 Chetwynd 12 Dawson Creek 13 Fort St. John 17 Prince Rupert 18 Kamloops 19 Tete Jaune Cache 20 Red Pass Junction 21 Edmonton 22 Calgary 23 Summit Lake 24 Vanderhoof 25 Fort St. James 26 Hazelton - 43 -By 1952, Prince George had a direct rail connection with Squamish and thus access to Vancouver's large urban population, the Fraser Valley and the port facilities of Vancouver. A rail link from Prince George to the port of Prince Rupert had existed since the First World War, but this did little to encourage economic growth. The link between Quesnel and Prince George represents an interregional rather than intraregional link or path. An intraregional link would suggest a link that was relatively short and one that would carry traffic with a short average length of haul. In total miles, this link is relatively short (less than 100 miles) but as the link was an extension of an already existing line and one which followed an existing north south orientation, it represented more of an extension of the line which linked the Prince George-Quesnel region to the Vancouver region (and world markets) than an intraregional link of the Quesnel region to the Prince George region. Reasoning in an economic plane would also suggest that this link was an interregional link, as there was not sufficient demand for the transportation capacity that a rail link would supply between Quesnel and Prince George to warrant its construction. In fact the building of the link was motivated by political and economic reasoning. The provincial government wanted to link this region with the lower mainland of B.C. At this time, neither city, Quesnel or Princece George had sufficicient linked industries, consumer demand or secondary production to warrant the link. In essence, the link represented a political move based on the economic , rationale of providing an export base link through the port of Vancouver as an impetus for encouraging a certain type of economic growth in the region. Figure 5 represents the rail network in 1958. Since 1952, the line had been extended about 250 miles north of Prince George to Fort St. John (13) and Dawson Creek (12). Thus by 1958 the rail network had taken on the basic pattern that it possesses today. The Peace River Region was finally linked with Vancouver and lower mainland. It was linked inter-regionally with Vancouver as well as intraregionally within itself and inter-regionally with the Prince George region. In 1958, there were no towns of any consequence between Prince George and Fort St. John and Dawson Creek, nor was there any output or any capacity demand of a large enough scale to justify a rail link. The populated and productive area of the Beace River Region was the Fort St. John-Dawson Creek agricultural area. This area was the only productive. area of the region and thus the only area that could make use of the supply of rail transportation. Prior to the establishment of the link, this region had moved its grain to market (mainly the Fraser Valley) via Edmonton, Calgary and Kamloops.^ Now the grain moved to the Fraser Valley by the B.C.R. (then the P.G.E.) route, which meant the distance was reduced from about 1200 miles to about 700. The fact that the two major exports from this region were grain and lumber (excluding gas and oil which moved by pipeline), demonstrated that this link served as a link between the Vancouver market region (or world markets through the Port of Vancouver) and the Peace River Region, as these products were destined for either the Fraser Valley (the grain) or for the lower mainland or world markets (the lumber). This rail link meant that this region's grain now could reach its market at a much more competitive price, that the forest resources of the region now had a rail link to the port that provided the best outlet to world lumber markets and a rail connection to Prince George with its rail links with the markets of eastern Canada and the U.S. Figure 6 represents the rail network by 1968. There were only two additions to the network and t these represented different types of additions. One was the extension to Fort St. James (25) which entered an area with high forest potential but with no concrete developmental plans. The extension to Mackenzie (10) was to an area with definite capacity demand as the area was the site of two pulp mills which were then under construction. - 4 5 -Again the links represented a link with the port of Vancouver and world markets rather than intraregional links. (The pulp mills were being built for world, not regional markets). There were very few either forward or backward linkage, in these areas with nearby regions, except that which supplied the pulp mills with pulp chips. Figure 7 represents the rail network by 1971. The only com-pleted addition was the link from Fort St. John (13) to Fort Nelson (14). This represented the final extension on the eastern wing of the railway. The provincial government had long seen Fort Nelson as the northern provincial terminal for the eastern arm of the railway and extended the network this far as a lead factor for economic development and growth.^ The rail network now reached from Vancouver to Fort Nelson, from the southern border of the province almost to the northern border. The line followed the natural features of the landscape of B.C. and the historical settlement pattern. The last extension was built not in response to a demand for rail capacity but as a lead element in development. For years the provincial government has followed a policy of "northern development" and the link to Fort Nelson was completed with the hope of encouraging a pulp mill and to spur mineral exploration and development in the area. While neither of these aims as of yet has been realized, this area now has the rail capacity for large scale, large volume freight movements. (This eastern extension could also form a southern terminusuafor a railway into the Northwest Territories or the Yukon). In summary, the growth of the B.C.R. network can be divided into four time segments: pre-1952, 1952-1958, 1958-1968, and 1968-1971; which represents one of many possible cross-sectional views of the growth of the railway. This particular breakdown was chosen because these time segments represented periods when important links were completed. The cross-sectional view taken of the highway network results in a different set of time periods dftr change'sigfoTihe/ tim'evtsegments or periods for the - 4 6 -highway network are 1952-1962, and 1962-1971. These periods were chosen primarily because theyp provided a relatively even break in the study period without making the period so short that the network changes became so few as to be meaningless. (3.7) The Road Network The road network consists of the same basic trunk network as the rail network. There are still the same four basic gateway nodes: Vancouver, Prince Rupert, Edmonton and Calgary. The road network of the region is represented as was the rail network, by simplified maps or graphs. Figure 8 represents the partial road network of B.C. in 1952. The John Hart (now John Hart-Peace River) Highway was completed to Dawson Creek and Fort St. John in 1952. This was the first date at which the region had a direct all-B.C. road link with Prince George and the rest of B.C. The region had road links with Alberta before 1952 and even after 1952 the links to Alberta remained the better quality links. Besides being of a better quality the links from the Peace River Region to Alberta were more natural links since both the Peace and Northern Alberta regions were based on agriculture, while the northern interior B.C. regions were based on lumbering and ranching. The network in 1952 therefore connected the Peace River Region with the Prince George-Quesnel region and the rest of B.C., but the orientation of the region was to Alberta and the Edmonton-Calgary area. The addition of the 1952 John Hart link represented therefore more of an interregional link. Figure 9 represents the road network in 1962. The network shows some significant changes in form and structure. Much of the network in northern B.C. was paved by 1962 and there were some regional links added. Interregionally, the highway from Clinton (5) to Prince George (8), FIG. 8 : ROAD NETWORK 1952 ILLUSTRATING ROAD CONNECTIONS WITHIN THE STUDY AREA AND CONNECTIONS TO THE GATEWAY NODES - 4 9 -most of the highway between Prince Rupert (17) and Prince George (8) and the link from Dawson Creek (12) to Edmonton (21) were paved. The interregional links were thus upgraded and offered imprpved accessibility from and to the northern region. Internally, the only change in the network was the addition of the link to Hudson's Hope (15). It was in response to the growth of Hudson's Hope which became the major centre for construction workers on the Peace River Dam. This link was built as a result of an external shock to the region and produced a short term local growth centre. (It was short term in that Hudson's Hope's population increased from 70 in 1956 and 1960 to about 2,500 in 1965 but declined to about 1700 in 1971). The long term impact on Hudson's Hope may be slight while the long term impact on the region (because of the low cost power) may be very important. The upgradingigofofthe road network resulted in improved accessibility for the nodes in the region. This would be reflected in reduced time and cost factors which theoretically should result in increased movement of some goods and services intraregionally and interregionally. Intraregionally, as the friction of distance was reduced (and as the popula-tion of the region increased) the movement of goods and services (i.e. central place functions) would increase. Interregionally the friction of distance would also be reduced and the flow increased but this is influenced more by external (i.e. world) market demand and supply conditions for the exports of the region. The intraregional changes are likely to be relatively greater because of the nature of the mode and the type of transportation "good" it supplies. Figure 10 represents the road network in 1971. Between 1962 and 1971 there were no major structural changes in the interregional links between the study region and the other regions of B.C. The link between Prince George (8) and Tete Jaune Cache (19) was completed but - 5 1 -this provided no major link in the form of markets or export nodes. In the Peace River Region, there were three intraregional links completed. The link between Kennedy (9) and Chetwynd (11) was paved. The second extension since 1962 was the feeder link from Kennedy (9) to Mackenzie (10), the new "instant town" built around pulpmill complexes. The third extension was the completion of the feeder link from Chetwynd (11) through Hudson's Hope (<1i5i) to Fort St. John (13). This link consisted of a new link (Chetwynd to Hudson's Hope) and the paving of an existing link (Hudson's Hope to Fort St. John). The link joining Kennedy (9) to Chetwynd (11) represents the paving of the last section in nthe basic trunk network of the Peace River Region south of Fort St. John (13). It can be classified as an intraregional and interregional link which joined the Peace River Region with Prince George. The lack of nodes of any size along this route (except for Mackenzie) suggests that this link connects the major central place of the region (Prince George) with the Peace River Region. The link from Kennedy (9) to Mackenzie (10) represents an intraregional link as it provides access to Mackenzie from the trunk system and allowed connections between the central place of Prince George and village of Mackenzie, which is in Prince George's hinterland. The link= between Chetwynd (11) and Fort St. John (13) provides an interregional link between these centers through the declining centre of Hudson's Hope (15). An almost completely paved route existed between Chetwynd and Dawson Creek in 1962. Since there are no major nodes (nor resource production centres) along this route (and since a route already existed) this new route — Chetwynd-Hudson's Hope-Fort St. John — represented an intraregional route. These additions to the basic trunk network since 1952, pro-duced changing accessibility levels for the nodes in the region. These changes should be reflected in the changing economic functions of the nodes. The extent to which these changes reflect interregional as well as intra-regional based factors depends on the economic base of the nodes and - 5 2 -the resulting demand for different transportation services. In concluding this section on the changing rail and road networks, certain factors should be emphasized. The first is that the rail network in the northeastern region came after the road network. The second is that the rail network was built in sections over a series of years, while the basic road network existed in 1952 and its length changed little after that date. The third factor centres around the realization that for this region, the rail network represents an interregional system and that the road network basically represents an intraregional system. (3.8) Measures of Accessibility In the last few sections, the term accessibility has been mentioned several times. In this thesis I will use the term accessibility to refer to the relative distance from one node to another. By using a quantified measure rather than a description it is possible to compare individual measures of accessibility between places over time and this gives a means by which the relative differences between nodes can be compared within a time period. The measure of accessibility used here is a shortest path measure. It is a calculation of the shortest path from all possible paths, between two nodes in the network. Since the program calculates the shortest path from values on the links, the values can represent miles, cost, time or any desired variable. In the following tables, the shortest paths of the rail and highway networks are calculated using miles, and for the road network a weighted value that weights the links to take account of the slower speed that results from the surface condition. These tables summarize only the shortest paths from each node to the four gateway nodes of Vancouver (1), Prince Rupert (17), - 5 3 -Edmonton (21) and Calgary (22). This means' that the accessibilitysnmeasures are for interregional rather intraregional linkages. This bias is built in nasa it is suggested that it is the interregional linkages regardless of the mode that are most important for the growth of the primary sector of the economy (and it is postulated that it is this sector with its linkages that are the growth generators of this region). (3.9) The Unweighted Road Networks Tables II, III and IV summarize the shortest paths from each node in the road network (see Table I for a list of the nodes) to each of the gateway nodes: Vancouver (1), Prince Rupert (17), Edmonton (21) and Calgary (22). The network represented is the road network for the 1952, 1962 and 1971 time periods. The distances used are mileages taken from maps and B.C. Department of Highway statistics. The nodes that are of importance for this study are marked with a star and include six nodes in CD. 10 and three nodes from C D . 8. These nodes are: Quesnel (7), Prince George (8), Kennedy (9), Mackenzie (10), Chetwynd, (11), Dawson Creek (12), Fort St. John (13), Fort Nelson (14) and Hudson's Hope (15). - 54 -TABLE II ROAD NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY MEASURES FOR 1952 From\ 1 17 21 22 1 0 951 797 794 2 — — — — 3 299 762 658 655 4 99 852 698 695 5 244 707 603 600 6 219 732 578 575 * 7 421 530 780 777 * 8 494 454 731 853 * g 594 551 634 824 * 10 — — — * 11 693 650 535 725 * 12 757 714 471 661 * 13 803 760 517 707 * 14 1018 975 732 922 * 15 863 820 577 767 16 855 96 1089 1211 17 951 0 1185 1307 18 282 795 515 512 19 497 1010 300 490 20 522 1035 275 465 21 797 1185 0 190 22 794 1307 190 0 23 530 487 698 886 24 559 392 793 915 25 599 432 833 955 26 770 181 1004 1126 Important .nodes in the study area. 55 -TABLE III ROAD NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY MEASURES FOR 1962 To From 17 21 22 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 * 14 * 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 0 296 96 241 216 418 494 591 690 754 800 1015 860 836 932 265 476 501 774 755 527 556 596 765 923 746 836 691 716 514 438 525 634 698 744 959 804 96 0 765 976 1001 1069 1254 471 376 416 167 774 638 678 583 588 707 631 534 435 371 417 632 477 973 1069 509 298 273 0 185 598 693 733 902 755 619 659 564 539 741 816 719 620 556 602 817 662 1158 1254 ;490 483 458 185 0 783 878 918 1087 Important nodes in the study area. TABLE IV ROAD NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY MEASURES FOR 1971 \ To From\ 1 17 21 22 1 0 939 776 649 Z 3 296 755 642 515 4 96 843 680 553 5 241 700 587 460 6 216 725 562 435 * 7 418 523 704 637 * 8 494 447 628 713 * 9 591 544 531 716 * 10 605 558 545 730 * 11 690 643 432 617 * 12 754 707 368 553 * 13 790 743 414 599 * 14 1005 958 629 814 * 15 730 683 472 657 16 845 96 979 1064 17 941 0 1075 1160 18 265 774 513 386 19 476 618 302 487 20 501 643 277 462 21 778 920 0 185 22 651 1105 185 0 23 527 480 595 746 24 556 385 690 775 25 765 594 899 984 26 765 176 899 984 Important nodes in the study area. - 5 7 -Table V summarizes the relevant figures from Tables II, III and IV and presents two types of information. For the three time periods, the table gives the mileage from the nodes in the study region to the nodes of Vancouver (1), Prince Rupert (17), Edmonton (21) and Calgary (22). This allows a comparison of absolute mileage changes that have taken place in the network over the twenty years. The other columns contain the percentage change for each link for the two time periods 1952-62 and 1962-71. An examination of the absolute mileage changes reveals that there were significant changes in less than half the cases. This is mainly a consequence of the state of the road network at the beginning of the time period. By 1952, the basic trunk network had been established im this area. The real changes between 1952 and 1971 have been the shortening of the route to Edmonton and Calgary (by about 100 miles) between 1952-1962 and the addition of the link from Prince George (8) to Tete Jaune Cache (19) in the 1962-1971 period. Other changes included the addition of the feeder lines to Hudson's Hope (15) from Fort St. John (13) and Chetwynd (11), the feeder line to Mackenzie (10), and the addition of the line to Fort St. James (25). - 58 -TABLE V CHANGE IN ROAD NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY FROM 1952-1971 (UNWEIGHTED DISTANCES) MILEAGE CHANGE PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO 1952 1962 1971 1952-62 1962-71 NODE 7 1 421 418 418 NC* NC 17 530 514 523 NC NC 21 780 707 704 9 NC 22 777 741 637 5 14 NODE 8 1 497 494 494 NC NC 17 454 438 447 NC NC 21 731 631 628 14 NC 22 853 816 713 4 13 NODE 9 1 594 591 i 591 NC NC 17 551 535 544 NC NC 21 634 534 531 16 NC 22 824 719 716 13 NC NODE 10 1 — 605 17 — — 558 — — 21 — 545 — — 22 — 730 — — NODE 11 1 693 690 690 NC NC 17 650 634 643 NC NC 21 535 435 432 19 NC 22 725 620 617 15 NC * NC = No Change or < 5 % - 59 -TABLE V (Cont'd) CHANGE IN ROAD NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY FROM 1952-1971 MILEAGE CHANGE PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO 1952 1962 1971 1952-62 1962-71 NODE 12 1 757 754 754 NC NC 17 714 698 707 NC NC 21 471 371 368 21 NC 22 661 556 553 16 NC NODE 13 1 803 800 790 NC NC 17 760 744 743 NC NC 21 517 417 414 19 NC 22 707 602 599 15 NC NODE 14 1 1018 1015 1005 NC NC 17 975 959 958 NC NC 21 732 632 629 14 NC 22 922 817 814 11 NC NODE 15 1 863 860 730 NC 18 17 820 804 683 NC 18 21 577 477 472 17 NC 22 767 662 657 14 NC • These changes produce percentage changes in twenty cases for the time periods considered. For large percentage changes (i.e. changes of over 10%)^ the majority are the result of the shortening of the link from the Peace River Region to Edmonton and Calgary. This link, added by 1962, brought the region and the nodes of Edmonton and Calgary relatively much closer together. Accessibility increased (i.e. the distance was reduced by) from 9 to 19% for all nodes in this region and Edmonton and Calgary, except for node 10 which did not exist until the late 1960s. Thus the majority of changes occurred in the 1952-1962 time period and represent a closer bond with the Alberta nodes, reflecting the traditional ties that existed between this region and Alberta. The only other significant change is that of the Hudson's Hope (15) link to Vancouver (1) and Prince Rupert (17). This was a result of the completion of the road from Chetwynd (11) to Hudson's Hope (15) which increased the accessibility of Hudson's Hope by 18%. In summary, the main change in the unweighted road network is the relative change in the position of the region vis-a-vis the nodes of Edmonton and Calgary in the :1952-1962 period. However, this unweighted network takes no account of the difference between paved and gravel roads and therefore the results show little change over the period as highway changes usually come from temporal reductions because of the upgrading of the network. (3.10) The Rail Network Tables VI, VII, VIII and IX list the shortest paths from the twenty-six nodes to the four gateway nodes for the rail network. The mileages used were taken from official railway timetables and the nodes that are of interest are Quesnel (7), Prince George (8), Kennedy (9), Mackenzie (10), Chetwynd (11), Dawson Creek (12), Fort St. John (13) and Fort Nelson (14). Table X is a summary of the changing mileage relationships that are relevant to the study. The tables givevethe distances in miles between the nodes of the northeastern region and the gateway nodes for the time periods (that mark extensions of the rail network). The time periods represent the initial; period until 1952, the 1952-58 period when the line was extended to Fort St. John and Dawson Creek, the 1958-68 period by which time the feeder lines were added and the 1968-71 period which saw the Fort Nelson extension (see section 3.6). As to be expected, the absolute mileages show few changes. The tables mainly show that at one time period some nodes were not connected with any of the gateway nodes, but were joined at a later time. For example, Fort Nelson (14) was not connected with any of the gateway nodes in 1952, 1958 or 1968 but was connected in 1971. The only node which shows a reduction in total mileage is Dawson Creek (12). This was an important reduction as it reduced the distance from Dawson Creek to Vancouver from 1254 to 717 miles and the distance to Prince Rupert from 1445 to 720 miles. The important path is to Vancouver as the Fraser Valley is a market for the shipping of Peace River grain. - 62 -TABLE VI RAIL NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY MEASURES FOR 1952 \ To From \ . 1 17 21 22 1 0 929 764 648 2 40 889 804 688 3 158 771 794 806 4 91 1020 673 557 5 203 726 749 851 6 208 953 556 440 * 7 385 544 567 759 * 8 463 466 489 681 * 9 * 10 * 11 — — — — * 12 1254 1445 490 682 * 13 — — — — * 14 — — — — * 15 — — — — 16 835 94 861 1053 17 929 0 955 1147 18 257 904 507 391 19 510 651 304 496 20 485 676 279 471 21 764 955 0 192 22 648 1147 192 0 23 496 499 522 714 24 525 404 551 743 25 • — — — 26 749 180 775 967 * Important nodes in the study area. - 63 -TABLE VII RAIL NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY MEASURES FOR 1958 \ T° From\ 1 17 21 22 1 0 929 764 648 2 40 889 804 688 3 158 771 794 806 4 91 1020 673 557 5 203 726 749 851 6 208 953 556 440 * 7 385 544 567 759 * 8 463 466 489 681 * g 568 571 594 786 * 10 — — — — * 11 656 659 551 743 * 12 717 720 490 682 * 13 — — — — * 14 — — — — * 15 — — — 16 835 94 861 1053 17 929 0 955 1147 18 257 904 507 391 19 510 651 304 496 20 485 676 279 471 21 764 955 0 192 22 648 1147 192 0 23 496 499 522 714 24 525 404 551 743 25 — — — — 26 749 180 775 967 * Important nodes in the study area. TABLE VIII RAIL NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY MEASURES FOR 1968 v To om \^ 1 17 21 22 1 0 930 764 648 2 40 890 804 688 3 159 771 794 807 4 91 1021 673 557 5 204 726 749 852 6 208 953 556 440 7 386 544 567 759 8 464 466 489 681 9 569 571 594 786 10 592 594 617 809 11 657 659 551 743 12 718 720 490 682 13 726 728 620 812 14 1 ^  — — — i J 16 836 94 861 1053 17 930 0 955 1147 18 257 904 507 391 19 510 651 304 496 20 485 676 279 471 21 764 955 0 192 22 648 1147 192 0 23 497 499 522 714 24 526 404 551 743 25 569 571 594 786 26 750 180 775 967 Important nodes in the study area. - 65 -TABLE IX RAIL NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY MEASURES FOR 1971 \ T ° From\ 1 17 21 22 1 0 930 764 648 2 40 890 804 688 3 159 771 794 807 4 91 1021 673 557 5 204 726 749 852 6 208 953 556 440 * 7 386 544 567 759 * 8 464 466 489 681 * g 569 571 594 786 * 10 592 594 617 809 * 11 657 659 , 551 743 * 12 718 720 490 682 * 13 726 728 620 812 * 14 976 978 870 1062 * 15 — — — — 16 836 94 861 1053 17 930 0 955 1147 18 257 904 507 391 19 510 651 304 496 20 485 676 276 471 21 764 955 0 192 22 648 1147 192 0 23 497 499 522 714 24 526 404 551 743 25 569 571 594 786 26 750 180 775 967 * Important nodes in the study area. - 66 -- - \ TABLE X CHANGES IN RAIL NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY FROM 1952-1971 MILEAGE DISTANCE PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO 1952 1958 1968 1971 1952-58 1958-68 1968-71 NODE 7 1 385 385 386 386 NC* NC NC 17 544 544 544 544 NC NC NC 21 567 567 567 567 NC NC NC 22 759 759 759 759 NC ' NC NC NODE 8 1 463 463 464 464 NC NC NC 17 466 466 466 466 NC NC NC 21 489 489 489 489 NC NC NC 22 681 681 681 681 NC NC NC NODE 9 1 568 569 569 NC NC 17 571 571 571 — NC NC 21 594 594 594 — NC NC 22 786 786 786 — NC NC NODE 10 1 592 592 — — NC 17 594 594 — — NC 21 617 617 — — NC 22 809 809 — — NC NODE 11 1 656 657 657 NC NC 17 659 659 659 — NC NC 21 551 551 551 — NC NC 22 743 743 743 — NC NC * NC = N o Change or ^ 5 % - 67 — TABLE X (Cont'd) CHANGES IN RAIL NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY FROM 1952-1971 MILEAGE DISTANCE PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM TO FROM TO FROM TO 1952 1958 1968 1971 1952-58 1958-68 1968-71 NODE 12 1 17 21 22 1254 1445 490 682 717 720 490 682 718 720 490 682 718 720 490 682 43 50 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NODE 13 1 17 21 22 726 728 620 812 726 728 620 812 — — NC NC NC NC NODE 14 1 17 21 22 976 978 870 1062 — — — NODE 15 1 17 21 22 — — — - 6 8 -(3.11) The Weighted Road Network Finally the road network is again analyzed by taking the quality of the surface into account. During the twenty years of the study period, the basic road structure did not vary greatly. But there was a change in the road surface and because the road surface influences the speed, repair and maintenance costs of the vehicles using the network, this variable is of importance for determining the type of transport unit or service supplied. To account for the fact that paved roads allow for increases in the speed and reduce the repair and maintenance costs of trucks that use the roads (and thus change the accessibility of nodes) a weighting system was devised. The links that were later paved were "shortened" and the accessibility of the nodes involved increased. Freight rates are of course based on factors besides distance but for a road network, line haul costs (which are closely related to distance) are relatively the most important cost variable. In this thesis, this change is accounted for by making the later paved links shorter than the earlier unpaved links, thereby simulating the changing line haul costs as the surface is upgraded. In the weighted network, the unpaved links were lengthened by a factor of 1.7. This means that a 10 mile section that was not paved at one time but later paved, would have a length of 17 miles in the earlier time period and 10 miles in the later period. The weighting factor was determined from empirical studies. DeWeille's study (1966) suggests a speed of 25 mph for dirt roads and 35 mph for improved gravel roads, depending on the type and year of vehicle, etc. Since this study spans twenty years (over which the average - 6 9 -speed of vehicles has changed) and the exact condition of the surface of the roads is difficult to determine, an average speed for gravel roads was set at 30 mph. -When this 30 mph is compared with an average speed of 50 mph for paved roads, a rounded weighting factor of 1.7 is obtained. (The 50 mph average also came from DeWeille's study, and other empirical studies of B.C.) . 1 3 The exact factor used for weighting is not as important as the idea that some recognition is given to the fact that gravel roads reduce accessibility. Since this is not to be a detailed benefit-cost study, the exact size of this weighting factor is not a primary concern. Table XI, XII, and XIII list the distances for the road network with the gravel distances weighted by the 1.7 factor. Figures 8, 9 and 10 show the road network with actual distances divided into gravel and paved links at each time period. Table XIV presents the weighted mileage and percentage changes for the road network. The changes show greater variation in this than in the unweighted tables. There are 33 changes of 20% or over, 22 changes of 30% or over and 4 changes of 40% or over. This compares with only one change of 20% or over for the unweighted road network. (Table V). A more detailed breakdown shows that of the 48 changes of 10% or over, 15 were in the 10-20% category, 11 in the 20-30% category, 18 in the 30-40% category and 4 in the 40% or over category. In total numbers there was a relatively even spread of changes with more being in the lower or higher ranges (the 10-20% and 30-40% ranges) with the middle range (20-30%) and the highest ranges (40% or over) having relatively few. - 70 -TABLE XI ROAD ACCESSIBILITY MEASURED FOR 1952 (DISTANCES WEIGHTED) \ To From\ 1 17 21 22 1 0 1375 1091 929 z 3 338 1225 992 829 4 99 1276 992 830 5 244 1131 897 735 6 219 1156 872 710 * 7 494 881 1147 985 * 8 602 773 1167 1093 * g 767 938 1002 1192 * 10 — — — — * 11 935 1106 834 1024 * 12 1044 1215 725 915 * 1 3 1122 1293 803 993 * 14 1488 1659 1169 1359 * 15 1224 1395 905 1095 16 1212 163 1777 1703 17 1375 0 1940 1866 18 282 1219 809 647 19 639 1576 452 642 20 682 1619 409 599 21 1091 1940 0 190 22 929 1866 190 0 23 658 829 1111 1149 24 708 667 1273 1199 25 776 735 1341 1262 26 1067 308 1632 1558 * Important nodes in the study area. - 71 -TABLE XII ROAD ACCESSIBILITY MEASURED FOR 1962 (DISTANCES WEIGHTED) \ To From\ 1 17 21 22 1 0 991 916 755 Z 3 335 844 819 ' 658 4 96 895 820 659 5 241 750 725 564 6 216 775 700 539 * 7 418 573 788 741 * 8 494 497 712 817 * 9 591 594 615 800 * 10 — — — — * 11 759 762 447 632 * 12 835 838 371 556 * 13 881 884 417 602 * 14 1247 1250 783 968 * 15 983 986 519 704 16 895 96 1113 1218 17 991 0 1209 1314 18 265 824 651 490 19 572 1131 344 529 20 615 1174 301 486 21 916 1209 0 185 22 755 1314 185 0 23 527 530 679 850 24 556 435 774 879 25 624 503 842 947 26 788 203 1006 1111 Important nodes in the study area. - 72 -TABLE XIII \ To From\ ROAD 1 ACCESSIBILITY (DISTANCE 17 MEASURED FOR 1971 WEIGHTED) 21 22 1 0 939 776 649 2 3 301 762 649 522 4 96 843 680 553 5 239 700 587 460 6 214 725 562 435 * 7 416 523 529 637 * 8 492 447 453 638 * 9 589 544 531 716 * 10 603 558 545 730 * 11 688 643 432 617 * 12 752 707 368 553 * 13 788 743 414 599 * 14 1128 1083 754 939 * 15 728 683 472 657 16 843 96 804 989 17 939 0 900 1085 18 263 774 513 386 19 474 589 302 487 20 499 623 277 462 21 776 900 0 185 22 649 1085 185 - 0 23 525 480 486 671 24 544 385 515 700 25 594 425 555 740 26 763 176 724 909 * Important nodes in the study area. - 73 -TABLE XIV CHANGES IN ROAD NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY FROM 1952-1971 (WEIGHTED DISTANCES) MILEAGE DISTANCES PERCENTAGE CHANGE TO TO TO TO TO 1952 1962 1971 1952-62 1962-71 NODE 7 1 494 418 416 15 NC 17 881 573 523 35 9 21 1147 788 529 31 33 22 985 741 637 25 14 NODE 8 1 602 494 492 18 NC 17 773 497 447 36 10 21 1167 712 453 39 36 22 1093 817 638 25 22 NODE 9 1 767 591 589 23 NC 17 938 594 544 37 8 21 1002 615 531 39 14 22 1192 800 716 33 11 NODE 10 1 603 17 — — 558 — — 21 — — 545 — — 22 — — 730 — — NODE 11 1 935 759 688 19 9 17 1106 762 643 31 16 21 834 447 432 46 NC 22 1024 632 617 38 NC NC = No Change or < 5 % - 74 -TABLE XIV (Cont'd) CHANGES IN ROAD NETWORK ACCESSIBILITY FROM 1952-1971 (WEIGHTED DISTANCES) MILEAGE DISTANCES PERCENTAGE CHANGE 1952 1962 1971 1952-62 1962-71 FROM NODE 12 TO 1 1044 835 752 20 10 17 1215 838 707 31 16 21 725 371 368 49 NC 22 915 556 553 39 NC FROM NODE 13 TO 1 1122 881 788 22 11 17 1293 884 743 32 16 21 803 417 414 48 NC 22 993 602 599 39 NC FROM NODE 14 TO 1 1488 1247 1128 16 10 17 1659 1250 1083 25 13 21 1169 783 754 33 4 22 1359 968 939 29 NC FROM NODE 15 TO 1 1224 983 728 20 26 17 1395 986 683 29 31 21 905 519 472 43 9 22 1095 704 657 36 7 - 75 -T h e changes are c o n c e n t r a t e d in the ear l i e r t i m e p e r i o d w i t h 3 2 o f the 4 8 changes o f 1 0 % or over , 2 8 o f the 3 3 changes o f 2 0 % or over , 19 o f the 2 2 changes o f 3 0 % o r over and al l 4 o f the 4 0 % or over changes o c c u r r i n g in the 1952-62 t i m e p e r i o d . N o t o n l y we r e the changes c o n c e n t r a t e d in the ear l y t i m e p e r i o d , b u t m o r e o f the larger changes (i.e. 8 5 % o f the 2 0 % o r over , 8 6 % o f the 3 0 % o r over a n d 1 0 0 % o f the 4 0 % o r over changes) were c o n c e n t r a t e d in t he ea r l y t i m e p e r i o d . A n e x a m i n a t i o n o f these f igures a lso reveals t h a t the changes in access ib i l i t y are greater f o r the E d m o n t o n - C a l g a r y area a n d the P r i n ce R u p e r t area t h a n f o r t he V a n c o u v e r d e s t i n a t i o n area. F o r t he 1 9 5 2 - 6 2 p e r i o d t he increases i n a ccess ib i l i t y b e t w e e n the s t u d y a rea a n d the E d m o n t o n area averaged 4 1 % , the Ca lga ry area 3 3 % , t he P r ince R u p e r t area 3 2 % and the V a n c o u v e r area 1 9 % , w h i l e f o r the 1962-71 p e r i o d t h e f i gu res w e r e 1 9 , 1 4 , 15 a n d 1 3 % . In s u m m a r y the w e i g h t e d n e t w o r k gives greater d i s t ance and percentage changes t h a n the u n w e i g h t e d n e t w o r k . These changes represent increases o f a ccess ib i l i t y f o r the nodes in the n e t w o r k . T h e m a j o r i t y o f the changes were i n the ear l ier p e r i o d , the 1 9 5 2 t o 1 9 6 2 t i m e p e r i o d . T h e greatest changes in access ib i l i t y we re w i t h the E d m o n t o n and Ca lga r y areas, f o l l o w e d b y the P r i n ce R u p e r t area and t hen the V a n c o u v e r area. These resu l ts p r o v i d e s u p p o r t f o r the f igures f r o m the t r u c k i n g f i r m s us ing the A l a s k a H i g h w a y ( S e c t i on 3.5) w h i c h suggests tha t as a a s u p p l y r eg ion the E d m o n t o n - C a l g a r y area is the ma jo r s u p p l y area f o r A l a s k a H i g h w a y c o m m u n i t i e s . W h i l e i t is n o t p rac t i ca l t o suggest t ha t t he t r a n s p o r t a t i o n needs f o r the no r theas t e rn par t o f B .C. necessar i l y w o u l d be e x a c t l y s i m i l a r t o t hose o f the A l a s k a n h i g h w a y c o m m u n i t i e s (because o f d i f f e r e n t pa t te rns o f reg iona l s p e c i a l i z a t i o n , e x p o r t base o f the reg ions , etc.) the t r ends are o f in terest . - 7 6 -(3.12) Summary This chapter has presented two types of information about the northeastern part of B.C. The physical features and natural resources, and the basic transportation network were reviewed so that the regional makeup of the area could be understood. Then, the road and rail networks were reviewed and a system of cross-sectional temporal views of the transportation networks presented so that time periods of major changes in the network were defined. This was followed by an analysis of the networks using a relative accessibility measure. The measure gave figures for the nodes in the network which represented their relative changing positions as a result of inclusion of a new link in the network or the upgrading of an existing link. The accessibility figures for the nodes for the time periods are an indication of the changing relative position of the nodes in the spatial structure of the economic system. This changing position should be reflected in the economic indicators of the region. This impartially documented in this thesis. The accessibility measures were generated partly to suggest that which is not documented; that is the type of urban-service related changes that should theoretically be taking place (i.e. see section 2.4). Some studies dealing with this were reviewed in chapter 2. Kissling's (1966) analysis suggested that changing urban functions were related to changing highway accessibility levels. Gauthier's (1968) investigation analyzed the relationship between accessibility changes and the growth of urban centers. In chapter 2 and 3, I have been attempting to demonstrate several points. Three of these are: that the accessibility of nodes on the highway and railway networks has changed over the period 1952-71; that this' changing accessibility produces changes in the economy of a region; and that these changes can be in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. - 7 7 -The changes in the tertiary sector are best represented and documented by studies such as Kissling's Transportation Networks Accessibility  and Urban Functions, (1966). This type of change is one of the ways through which the consequences, results or effects of changing accessibility may be measured and documented. But a central theme of this thesis is that the effects of changing accessibility may also be evaluated by an examination of the changes in the primary (resource) sector. The changes in this sector, (and the related secondary sector) are an important factor in the initial stages of growth of a developing region and (as suggested in chapter 5) can be evaluated through an examination of investments in the primary and secondary industries. The analysis of the relationship between changing primary (resource) and secondary activities and changes in (highway and) railway accessibility is therefore presented as an extension to the research of Kissling (1966) and Gauthier (1968), which related changes in urban activities to changes in highway accessibility. This extension, which relates changes in resource and resource related manufacturing activities to changes in (highway and) railway accessibility, is seen as important in the northwestern region of B.C. because it is a developing, frontier, resource-based region. It thus offers an oppor-tunity to challenge Kissling's conclusion that "accessibility appears related to activities which are primarilylyurban in character rather than being resource oriented" (1966, p.135). But before this is dealt with further one other factor that can influence economic change will be reviewed. This factor is the stage or level of development of a region. - 78 -REFERENCES 1See Kanaan (1965); Garrison and Marble (1965); Gamble (1972). 2See Kansky (1963); Perle (1964); Garrison and Marble (1965); Wills (1972) and Chapter 2. 3 For a discussion of frontier regions see Webster (1970). 4See Robinson (1961); Dawson (1970). ^See Dawson (1970); and Investment Opportunities in B.C.. Peace River Region. (1969). ^The Peace River-Liard Region. (1966). 7Dawson, (1970). ^Taaffe and Gauthier (1973, p.13) define a gateway node to be a node located in a transitional zone or a node at a break of bulk point, at which there is a change in the freight rate structure. 9Gamble, 1972, p.19. 1 0Annual Reports. P.G.E., 1964-1971. I have set a value of 10% or over, as the limit for large percentage changes. This figure was chosen for two reasons. Firstly, changes smaller than 10% are so numerous that their inclusion is not warranted. Secondly, line haul costs are relatively more important for the highway mode than the rail mode and therefore a 10% reduction in this factor would represent an appreciable reduction in the total costs for trucking firms. 1 2See De Weille (1966); Kissling (1966) and Gauthier (J968). 1 3Wills (1971); Townsend (1973). CHAPTER 4 THE CHANGING INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY REGION AND B.C. (4.1) Introduction This chapter contains an examination of a factor that influences the relationship between transportation networks and economic change. This factor is the stage or level of development of a region. This, in turn, is influenced by the state of development of the larger region (i.e. the province of B.C.) of which that region is a part. In this thesis the levels or stage of development will be determined by labour force material. The data for this consists of labour force statistics from the Census of Canada. 1951 and 1961 and from the Financial Post, Survey of  Markets, which has access to yearly census material. The data are not however as complete nor as comprehensive as desired and cannot be used in a statistically rigorous comparison. (4.2) The Changing Labour Force Structure of B.C. - 1951-1961 This section contains a short review of the labour force statistics in B.C. to give an overview of the general trends. B.C. has often been characterized as a province with narrow employment base centered on resource industries and industries closely linked to resource industries. However, if this was true in the past, the picture is changing today.^  The trend in B.C. is to diversification and expansion in many secondary and tertiary industries. Table XV presents the labour force statistics for 1941, 1951 and 1961 and an estimate of the 1970 figures. The figures show the - 80 -TABLE XV LABOUR FORCE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA (PERCENTAGE) 1941, 1951, 1961, ACTUAL FIGURES AND 1970, FORECAST FIGURES 1941 1951 1961 1970 PRIMARY INDUSTRIES 25.8 15.5 9.9 8.5 SECONDARY INDUSTRIES 27.1 30.0 25.9 25.8 TERTIARY INDUSTRIES 43.7 53.0 61.4 65.8 TOTAL 96.6* 98.5* 97.2* 100.1* PRIMARY: SECONDARY: TERTIARY: Agriculture; Forestry; Fishing and Trapping; and Mining Manufacturing and Construction Electricity, Gas and Water; Transportation; Storage and Communication; Trade, Finance, Insurance and Real Estate; and Service. * Figures do not add up to 100% because of rounding errors. Source: B.C. Bureau of Economics and Statistics, B.C. Growth. 1952. 1960 and 1970 Forecast (1963). TABLE XVI EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUPINGS: 1970 (FOR B.C.) 1 [Industry Groupings Numbers C000) Percentages Primary: Forestry 19.7 Mining 12.0 Secondary: Manufacturing 129.4 Construction 35.3 Tertiary: Trade 117.2 Service* 191.1 Finance, Real Estate and Insurance 32.0 Public Administration and Defence 41.3 Transportation, Communications and other Utilities 83.8 3.0 1.8 19.6 5.3 17.7 28.9 4.8 6.2 12.6 Total Primary 4.8% Total Secondary 24.9% Total Tertiary 70.2% 00 TOTAL 661.7 99.9% 99.9% * Includes: Health Services; Motion Pictures and Recreation Service; Services to Business Management; Personal Services (ex. Domestic Services) and Miscellaneous Services. Source: Financial Post. Survey of Markets. 1971. - 8 2 -general trends of the decreasing size of the primary industries and the in-creasing importance of the tertiary industries, while the secondary industries remain relatively stable. The categories are broken up into their component parts below the table. Unfortunately, no information is given on the method used to calculate the 1970 figures. (Actual figures from the 1971 Financial Pnst surveys — Table XVI — with the agricultural labour force not included — are: primary 4.8%, secondary 24.9% and tertiary 70.2%). The primary industries were expected to contain only 8.5% of the labour force by 1970, which represents a drop of two-thirds from the 1941 figure and a decrease of one-half from 1951. The percentage in the secondary industries has remained fairly stable at about 25% since 1941, while the tertiary industries have increased from 43% to 70%. This trend, of a decreasing percentage in the primary and an increasing percentage in the tertiary industries, is one experienced by many countries and regions. Table XVII lists the numbers and percentages of both the general categories and their component parts. This table shows that while the primary industries are decreasing in total percentage terms, the numbers of some of their component parts were increasing over some time periods. The number engaged in agriculture decreased from 1941 to 1951 and 1951 to 1961 but was projected to increase from 1961 to 1971. This is the result of increased demand for agricultural products in the world markets and the result of increased accessibility of agricultural areas, (such as the Peace River Region) to their markets (see Chapter 5). The forestry (logging) sector has remained relatively stable with regards to numbers employed since 1951, with the result that in percentage terms it decreased from 5.6 to 2.98% of the total labour force (Table XVI) by 1970. This is occurring at the same time as the value and amounts of output from this sector have been steadily increasing — which implies that these percentages do not reflect a declining industry. TABLE XVII LABOUR FORCE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA 1941, 1951, 1961, ACTUAL AND 1970 FORECAST PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Year Agri-culture % of Total Labour Force For-estry Fishing % and Trapping % Mining (Gas & Oil) % Total Primary % 1941 43,826 12.8 19,304 5.6 10,076 2.9 15,235 4.4 88,441 25.8 1951 27,659 6.2 24,911 5.6 4,836 1.1 11,442 2.6 68,848 15.5 1961 23,290 4.0 21,068 3.6 4,478 0.8 8,179 1.4 57,015 9.9 1970 25,000 3.4 22,000 3.0 4,500 SECONDARY INDUSTRIES 0.6 10,000 1.4 61,500 8.5 Year Manufacturing % Construction % Total Secondary % 1941 71,913 20.9 21,158 6.2 93,071 27.1 1951 102,709 23.1 30,721 6.9 133,430 30.0 1961 113,019 19.6 36,338 6.3 149,357 25.9 1970 135,000 18.5 53,000 7.3 188,000 25.8 TABLE XVII (Cont'd) TERTIARY INDUSTRIES Year Electri-city, Gas & Water % Transpor-tation Storage & Commun. % Trade % Finance, Insurance & Real Estate % Service % 1941 1,938 0.6 29,087 8.5 43,997 12.8 8,576 2.5 66,197 19.3 1951 4,779 1.1 40,793 9.2 70,585 15.9 14,585 3.3 104,816 23.6 1961 6,287 1.1 56,519 9.8 99,278 17.2 22,642 3.9 169,783 29.4 1970 7,300 1.0 74,500 10.2 133,500 18.3 31,500 4.3 232,700 31.9 I 00 Year Total Tertiary % 1941 149,795 43.7 1951 235,558 53.0 1961 354,509 61.4 1970 479,500 65.8 Note: Although electric power is considered as a primary industry, employment had been included under "electricity, gas, and water". Source: B.C. Bureau of Economics & Statistics B.C. Growth: 1941. 1951. 1961 and 1970 Forecast - 8 5 -The mining (including gas and oil) sector has experienced a steady decrease in percentage terms, but was expected to show an increase in actual employment by 1970. Thus, while in percentage and absolute numbers the primary industries generally show decreases, some individual sectors demonstrate opposite trends. The agriculture, forestry and mining sector all were predicted to show increases in employment over the 1961 to 1970 period. But actual figures (Table XVI) show that while mining increased the forestry sector continued to show a decrease. Figures for the agricultural sector are not yet available. Unlike the primary sector, the secondary industries showed little change. Since 1951 the percentage values have remained relatively stable. Manufacturing contained 23.1% and 19.6% of the labour force in 1951 and 1961 (Table XVII) and 19.6% in 1970 (Table XVI). Construction varied from 6.9% and 6.3% (Table XVII) in 1951 and 1961 to 5.3% in 1970 (Table XVI). The tertiary industries have shown steady increases in both per-centage and absolute terms. From 53.0% in 1951 to a projected 65.8% in 1970 (actual value 70%), the tertiary industries have registered the largest gains of the three industries. The sector within this group of industries that has shown the largest percentage gain is the service sector, followed by the trade sector, the finance, insurance and real estate sector, the transpor-tation, storage and communications sector, and the electricity, gas and water sector. By 1970, the service sector accounted for almost 30% of the total labour force (Table XVI) while transportation, communications and other utilities and the trade sector accounted for nearly another 30%. (The service sector accounted for 23.6% of the total labour force in 1951 but - 86 -by 1970 this figure was 28.9% (Table XVI). The fact that these sectors, rather than the traditional primary industry sectors are increasing, demonstrates that B.C. no longer is dependent mainly on its primary industries as an employment base. In general, the importance of all classes of industries as with the sectors of these industries, varies with the size of the region (both area and population) and the stage or level of development of the regions.2 This is also true of the various regions of B.C. 3 Thus while certain sectors of the primary, secondary or tertiary industries may be at a certain nlevel in the province as a whole, it is not necessary to expect to find the same percentage breakdown in all the regions that make up the province. There is therefore little reason for supposing that the north-eastern region will demonstrate the same pattern of labour force statistics as the province. However, since this region is part of the provincial economy and is passing froma a resource economy to a more balanced economy, the trends should show some similarity. Differences that do show up can then be explained by examining the economic parameters of the region, and one of these parameters is the population of the region. (4.3) The Changing Population Structure of Northeastern B.C. The statistics on population growth in the northeastern region of B.C. are not as comprehensive as they are for the province and therefore complete comparability is impossible. However it is worthwhile to compare those regional and provincial figures that exist for the 1951-1971 period to determine similar and dissimilar trends. The northeastern region is broken up into two sections for this analysis as the region extends over two census divisions. The region includes all of C D . 10 and part of C D . 8 (see section 3.2). Since only part of C D . 8 is being included, the amount of statistics - 87 -available for this region is extremely limited. Table XVIU summarizes the growth in population of B.C. and C D . 10 since 1956. During this period B.C.'s annual rate of growth was fairly stable averaging 2 to 2%. C D . 10 however experienced a much larger growth rate and a greater range in year to year growth, especially in the early 1960's. The percentage changes for C D . 10 vary from 24.2% between 1961 and 1962 to -0.2% between 1966 and 1967. CD. 10's rate of growth was inflated by the influx of con-struction workers for the W.A.C. Bennett Dam during this period, an event that was relatively important to this region given its limited population. Other reasons for its large growth include the relatively small population base of the region in 1951 and the development of resource related activities. There are no published figures for the population growth of the Prince George-Quesnel region that are as detailed as those for C D . 10, but Table XIX is a list of estimates for this region.4 The Prince George-Quesnel region consists primarily of the communities of Prince George, Quesnel and Mackenzie and some smaller villages. While the figures in Table XVIII and XIX are not comparable, it is clear that the Prince George and Quesnel regions were growing at slower rates in the latter part of the study period as compared to the earlier part of the study period. The Prince George region's growth rate of 37% between 1956 and 1961 was significantly higher than the provincial average, while Quesnel's 9% for the same period is about equal with the provincial figure. Both figures are less than C D . 10's growth rate of 52% for the same period. Thus, while it is evident that there are differences in population growth, no real trend emerges. The area considered is small and the popula-TABLE XVIII POPULATION CHANGES: B.C. AND CD. 10 Year Population of B.C. % Change Over Previous Year Population of CD. 10 % Change Over Previous Year ('000) 1956 1,398" 20.5 59 1,563 24.1 60 1,601 2.4 25.6 6.2 61 1,631 1.9 26.4 3.1 62 1,659 1.7 32.8 24.2 63 1,697 2.3 34.7 5.8 64 1,742 2.7 37.9 9.2 65 1,794 3.0 40.7 7.4 66 1,862 3.8 43.7 7.4 67 1,938 4.1 43.6 •0.2 68 2,002 3.3 46.6 6.9 69 2,056 2.7 48.1 3.2 70 2,128 3.5 50.8 5.6 71 2,190 3.4 53.2 4.7 Source: Financial Post: Survey of Markets. 1956-1972. TABLE XIX (ESTIMATED) POPULATIONS IN THE PRINCE GEORGE-OUESNEL REGION Year 1941 51 Prinee George Region 6,003 12,163 56 20,991 61 28,953 66 36,000 Percentage Change Over Previous Year 103 73 37 20 Quesnel Region 6,400* 10,500 11,479 12,700* Percentage Change Over Previous Year 39 9 9 * Estimates Source: Regional Index of B.C.. 1957, 1966 - 9 0 -tion base at the beginning of the period relatively insignificant. Therefore small injections into the system have a seemingly large effect in percentage terms. (4.4) The Primary Industries In this section, it will be shown that the study region passed through a unique process of development with regard to its primary industries. The general provincial trend is for a substantial decrease in the primary industries (Table X V ) . The trend in the study region shows significant differences. The provincial figures for the primary industries decreased from 15.5% of total employment in 1951 to 9.9% in 1961 (Table X V ) . The comparable figures for C D . 10 was 39% and 2 1 % (Table X X ) . Figures for 1971 are not yet available, but it is possible that the trend of the previous decade may be reversed because of increased demand and improved accessibility for this sector. In C D . 10 during the 1951 to 1961 period the actual numbers decreased in two of the four sectors of the primary industries. The employment in agriculture declined from 1,939 in 1951 to 1,608 in 51961. There was also a decline in those involved in fishing and trapping. The number employed in forestry (and logging) and mining and quarrying (which included oil and gas exploration and development) increased, with the mining and quarrying sector showing the greatest absolute and relative changes. The decrease of the agricultural labour force of C D . 10 was a trend that was common in B.C. and was a technological response. Agriculture was passing from a labour intensive 'industry' and thus the numbers engaged were decreasing while the value of output was increasing.^  TABLE XX LABOUR FORCE BY INDUSTRY GROUP - C D . 10 1951 1961 Primary Secondary Tertiary 39% 15% 46% 21% 15% 64% Primary: Agriculture, Forestry & Logging, Fishing & Trapping and Mining & Quarrying. Secondary: Manufacturing & Construction. Tertiary: Transportation & Communications, Trade, Finance, Services & Public Administration and Defence. Source: D.B.S. 1951 and 1966 Census of Canada. Vol. IV Labour Force - 9 2 -The 1971 census figures are not yet available for any primary industries except those that summarize the number of farms in the census divisions of B.C. These figures0 show that the number of farms in C D . 10 has increased from 1,407 to 1,745 for the 1961 to 1971 period which would produce a corresponding increase in the numbers engaged in agriculture. This was part of a period of rapid growth in the agricultural sector which resulted in a 58% increase in farm acreage under cultivation in C D . 10 for the 1961 to 1966 period. Reasons for this include a strong world demand for wheat7 and the extension of the P.G.E. (now B.C.R.) line in this area in 1958.8 Figures in Table XXI demonstrate that the forestry (and logging) sector in C D . 10 experienced a trend that was different from the provincial trend. From 1951 to 1961 the numbers engaged in logging in C D . 10 increased from 104 to 128, while in B.C. the numbers decreased. This regional trend is likely to continue in the 1961 to 1971 decade as this sector is very responsive to changes in transportation links, especially to the rail mode. Mining and quarrying is the other sector of the primary industries which has shown a large absolute and percentage increase in employment in the 1951 to 1961 period (Table XXI). The numbers increased from 83 to 522, and this was largely the result of the expansion of oil and gas exploration and drilling. Exploration, drilling and production have continued to increase during the decade 1961-71 but exact figures are not yet available. Thus in the primary industries three of four sectors (agriculture, forestry and logging and mining and quarrying) exhibit patterns of growth which are in opposition to the trends in B.C. The relationship between this and the changing accessibility of the region because of the changing transportation networks will be discussed in Chapter 5 and 6. - 93 -TABLE XXI LABOUR FORCE BY CATEGORY - C D . 10 1951 1961 All Industries Agriculture Forestry and Logging Fishing and Trapping Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Construction Transportation and Communication Trade Finance Services — Total Personal Number % Number Public Administration & Defence 79 83 470 37 339 403 453 57 1,192 314 ** 5,470 100 10,828 100 1,939 35 104 1 1 9 6 7 8 1 22 6 ** 1,608 15 128 1 17 * 522 5 650 6 ** 1,026 1,581 1,713 198 1,814 912 659 ** 9 15 16 2 17 8 * Less than 1% ** Figures included in other categories Source: D.B.S., 1951, 1961, Census of Canada. Vol. IV: Labour Force. - 9 4 -No figures exist for the Prince George or Quesnel areas which deal with labour force statistics at a scale comparable with those just quoted for C D . 10. However some general figures and trends exist. There are approximately 600 farmers and ranchers in the area and farming and ranching has been expanding in the last few years both to meet increasing local demand because of increased population, and to supply the coastal and world markets. Forestry and logging has also been increasing because of the establishment of four pulp mills in the area and because of the higher prices for lumber. Forestry remains the principal economic activity for the Prince George-Quesnel area and its relative impor-tance has increased especially in the last decade. The fishing and trapping and mining activities are becoming relatively less important in the last two decades in the area and represent an insignificant proportion of the total labour forced (4.5) The Secondary Industries The secondary industries in the province experienced a slight decline over the period 1951 to 1961 dropping from 30.0 to 25.9% of the total labour force. During the 1961 to 1970 period they held their ground so that by 1970 they still possessed 24.9% of the labour force (Table XVI). The fact that the secondary industries (manufacturing and construction) have held their own in percentage terms is the result of the resource base of the province and the world demand which exists for these processed resources and the population growth of the provincese.The'se figures are a reflection of the stage of development of B.C. as a whole but need not apply to each subregion. However, the manufacturing sector in C D . 10 demonstrated some of the characteristics shown by the province. During the 1951 to 1961 - 9 5 -decade the numbers involved in manufacturing increased while the percentage of those employed in this industry compared to the total declined from 9 to 6% (Table XXI). During the same period, the percentage engaged in manufacturing in the province declined, but by a relatively small proportion, while the actual numbers increased. Table XXII is a list of the number of manufacturing plants and number of employees in C D . 10 and B.C. from 1955 to 1968. It is clear that for C D . 10 the number of plants has been consistently declining while the number of employees has been increasing. However, the numerical increase is small and while the 1971 census is not out yet, the percentage employed in manufacturing is not likely to be greater than the 6% level of 1961 and may well be below the 6% level. It appears that this region has not yet reached that level of development where manufacturing is an impor-tant factor. Construction on the other hand is more fundamental in the region than in the province. For the province, the construction section de-creased from 6.9 to 5.3% of the labour force in the 1951 to 1970 period A (Table XVI and XVII). C D . 10 on the other hand experienced a growth in the construction industry of from 339 to 1,026 employees in the 1951 to 1961 period which represented an increase of from 6 to 9%. While the 1971 figures are not yet available, there is reason to believe that the trend of the last decade will continue. In the 1961-1971 decade the figures for construction employment would be inflated by the Peace River Hydro project. However, by the end of the decade, this abnormality would have disappeared and a true picture of the regions' construction employment will be available. While no precise figures exist for secondary industries in the Prince George-Quesnel area, this sector has experienced rapid growth in both relative and absolute terms especially in the 1961-1971 decade. In the - 96 -Year 1955 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Source: TABLE XXII MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN CD. 10 and B.C. No. of Plants No. of Plants Manufacturing Employees in B.C. in CD. 10 in CD. 10 4,486 116 519 4,250 102 598 4,071 92 702 2,992 96 756 3,995 76 848 3,502 63 679 3,622 65 659 3,597 55 611 3,502 53 784 3,444 52 748 3,384 49 680 3,331 47 737 Financial Post. Survey of Markets. 1956-1971. - 9 7 -manufacturing sector, the three pulp mills built in Prince George in the mid 1960's provided employment for about 2,000 workers. When this is compared with the total of 5,377 employees in all categories in the city of Prince George in 1961, it is clear that this sector expanded relative to many other sectors. During the latter half of the study period, Quesnel also experienced a large relative growth in the manufacturing sector as a result of the addition of a plywood plant with 250 workers, and a pulp mill with approximately 400 workers. This represents a sizeable increase for a total labour force of 1,775 for the city of Quesnel in 1961. This growth in the manufacturing sector in the Prince George-Quesnel area represents a trend contrary to the trend in C D . 10. (It is of interest to note that this growth in the Prince George-Quesnel area is based almost entirely on the lumber resources of the region — a sector that has just started to develop in the northeastern part of the study region). The construction section of the secondary industries experienced a sharp increase in nthei Prince George-Quesnel area because of the construction of pulp mills and the consequent demand for housing that these mills pre-cipitated. An estimate (Regional Index of B.C.. 1966, p.444), predicted an increase in employment in Prince George in the construction sector of fromwn 426 to 2,500 in 1964, based on the value of building permits issued by the city of Prince George. Quesnel has also experienced an increase in this sector relative to other sectors of other industries. Thus, while the province as a whole has experienced a slight decrease in percentage terms in this sector, the Prince George-Quesnel area experienced an increase based on its pulp mills and other forestry related expansion. - 9 8 -(4.6) The Tertiary Industries The provincial tertiary sector increased from 53.0% to 61.4% of the labour force in the 1951 to 1961 period, with a projected increase to 65.8% in 1970 (Table XVII). The actual 1970 figure was 70.2% (Table XVI). The changes in the regional figures for 1951-1961 demonstrated trends similar to those of the province. By adding the sectors of transpor-tation and communications, trade, finance, services and public administration frommTable XXI, it is clear that the tertiary sector in C D . 10 was experiencing greater gains than was this sector in the province as a whole. Total tertiary percentage figures for C D . 10 were 44% in 1951 and 64% in 1961. By 1961, the region had a larger percentage of its labour force in the tertiary sector than had the province. There existed therefore, a paradox of a supposedly resource based region, having a larger tertiary sector than the more developed province. This would at first seem to imply that the region was at a more advanced stage in the development process than the province. However, a closer examination of the figures shows that the sectors with large rates of growth were the transportation and communications sector (which increased from 7 to 15%) and the trade sector (which grew from 8 to 16%). The service sector actually decreased from 22 to 17% during this time. The other sector, public administration and defence, did not exist as a separate sector in 1951. It appears therefore that the sectors which grew were those that reacted to the initial stages of the growth process and provided the infrastructure which is necessary for further growth. Transportation and communications include those sectors in the transportation, storage, communications and power fields while the trade sector includes those in the wholesale and retail trade. Denike (1972) - 9 9 -has hypothesized that investments would show up first in wages, then in retail sales, then in manufacturing and finally in the level of population. Given this sequence of reactions, it is reasonable to suggest that this region was passing through the initial stages of development in the 1950's as retail sales showed significant gains." No figures for periods later than 1961 are yet available from the 1971 Census. However some figures are available from the Financial Post. Survey of Markets. Table XXIII shows the number of taxpayers relative to the number of manufacturing employees and the respects rates of growth. The figures of Table XXIII demonstrate that the number of taxpayers increased at an average rate of 8.6% while those in manufacturing increased by an average rate of 0.9%. This suggests that the growth in employment is in either the primary or tertiary industries (or in the construction sector) and further supports the suggestion that this region is in a early stage of development. Table XXIV elaborates on this and demonstrates that the number of non-manufacturing employees has increased consistently since 1955. The average is 10.4% per year with the exceptional years being 1955-56, 1956- 57 and 1965-66 when greater than average rates are experienced while 1957- 58 and 1958-59 and 1966-67 and 1967-68 represent years when less than average growth was experienced. The final column in Table XXIV is a list of the percentage of non-manufacturing employees to total employees (taxpayers) in C D . 10. From these figures it is clear the manufacturing represents a smaller propor-tion of total employment in 1969 than in 1955. An examination of the investment pattern (Chapter 5) will give an indication of where the investment has gone during this period and this may provide a clearer indication of which sectors experienced the bulk of this growth. - 100 -TABLE XXIII CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF TAXPAYERS AND MANUFACTURING EMPLOYEES IN C D . 10 Number of % Change Manufactur- % Change Taxpayers Over Pre- ing Employees Over Prev-. Year in C D . 10 vious Year in C D . 10 vious Year 1955 3,520 * 519 * 56 4,979 29.3 * * 57 6,098 18.4 598 6.5 58 5,981 -2.0 702 17.4 59 6,095 1.9 756 7.1 60 6,802 10.4 848 10.9 61 * 8.4** 679 -24.9 62 8,171 8.4** 659 -3.0 63 8,628 5.3 * -4.0 64 * 9.3** 611 -4.0 65 10,592 93** 784 22.1 66 15,283 27.5 748 -4.8 67 14,953 -2.2 680 -21.8 68 15,001 0.3 737 7.4 69 16,495 9.1 759 2.9 70 15,723 -4.9 * * AVERAGE 8.6 0.9 * Figures not available or; cannot be calculated. ** Figures are for two years and have been averaged to give yearly figures. Source: Financial Post. Survey of Markets. 1959-1972. - 101 -TABLE XXIV MANUFACTURING AND NON-MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN C D . 10 Year 1955 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 Number of People Employed in C D . 10 Exclusive of Manufacturing 3,001 * 5,500 5,279 5,339 5,954 * 7,512 * * 9,808 14,535 14,273 14,264 15,736 Percentage Change Over Previous Year * 22.7* 22.7* 4.2 1.1 10.3 10.4** 10.4** 7 8 * * * 7 3 * * * 7 g * * * 32.5 - 1.8 -0.1 9.4 Percentage of Non-Manufacturing Em-ployees to Total Employed Persons (Taxpayers)  85.3 * 90.2 88.3 87.6 87.6 * 91.9 * 92.6 95.1 95.5 95.1 95.4 AVERAGE 10.4 91.4 Figures not available or cannot be calculated Figures are for 2 years, averaged to give yearly figures Figures are for 3 years, averaged to give yearly figures Source: Financial Post. Survey of Markets, 1956-70 - 102-In summarizing the tertiary industries, it is clear that this category in C D . 10, in the 1951-1961 decade grew at a greater rate than the provincial average. However, the growth was uneven, with the major share going to the transportation and communications sector and the trade sector with the service and financial sectors under-represented. Since no precise figures exist for the Prince George-Quesnel region, we must rely again on general trends. Both Prince George and Quesnel experienced large percentage increases in the value of retail sales. Between 1951 and 1961 the sales volume increased 71% in the town of Quesnel and 129% in Prince George, while the provincial average was 45%. In both regions, the service industries provide the second largest number of jobs after the forest and related industries and in Prince George area the number of people employed in the forest industry was the same as the 11 number employed in the service and trade industries. In the city of Prince George in 1961 the tertiary industries employed 2,427 of the 5,377 people employed. Of the 2,427 total: 1,180 were employed in community, business and other utilities; 726 in transpor-tation, communications and other facilities; 339 in public administration and 182 in finance, insurance and real estate. The city of Prince George, had therefore, 45% of its labour force in the tertiary industries in 1961. For the town of Quesnel the comparable figure was 56%J 3 These figures are less than the provincial average of 61% (Table XV) and probably are a consequence of the influence of the forestry sector and the pulp and paper industry in the areas. These figures, which show this region with less employment in the tertiary category and more in the manufacturing sector, suggests that the Prince George-Quesnel region is at a more advanced stage of development than is C D . 10, which has a larger tertiary sector (especially in the trans-portation and communications sector and the trade sector) and a smaller - 103 — secondary (manufacturing) sector. This agrees with the theories on stages of development mentioned earlier and is support for the contention that C D . 10 is at an early stage in the growth process. (4.7) Summary Chapter 4 examined the economic structure of B.C. and the northeastern region of B.C. given the data available. The growth of the industries for the province is compared with that for the study region. Provincially, there was a decrease in the primary category in the 1951 to 1971 period, especially in the number and percentage involved in agriculture. This trend was evident in the agricultural sector in the study region in the 1951 to 1961 period but not in the later decade. There were also differences in the trends in the forestry and mining sector between the province and the region. In the secondary industries there was a difference within the region as well as between the region and the province. Provincially and in the C D . 10, manufacturing decreased in percentage terms while it increased in the Prince George-Quesnel Region, especially in the 1961-1971 period. In the tertiary category the figures increased both provincially and within the region as a whole, but C D . 10 had a greater percentage of its labour force in this category than had the Prince George-Quesnel area or the province as a whole. These figures have demonstrated that the northeastern region is at a different stage or level of development from the province as a whole and that even within the study region there are differences. C D . 10 is growing in the primary and tertiary industries but not in the secondary - 104-industries and in the primary (logging) category. The province as a whole is growing in the tertiary industries but declining in certain sectors of this industry. These figures suggest that if these three "regions" were to be placed in order from least developed to most developed, C D . 10 would be at the earliest stage of development, the Prince George-Quesnel region at a later or middle stage and the province as a whole at the relatively most advanced stage. Chapter 5 attempts to examine this in more detail for the northeastern region by looking at investment data and Chapter 6 will analyze these results and tie this in with the theme suggested in Chapter 1. - 105 -REFERENCES ^eutsch et. al. (1959); Denike and Leigh (1972). 2Varlamov (1969). 3Denike and Leigh (1972). ^These figures are taken from the Regional Index of B.C.. 1966, p. 441 ; 449. -*See Dawson (1970); Investment Opportunities in British Columbia, The Peace River Region (1969). ^Because of changes in boundaries and census areas, there is not exact comparability between 1961 and 1971 census data. The differences are, however, relatively small. 7Dawson, 1970, p. 57. 8 P .G . E . Annual Reports. 1960. 9Regional Index of B.C.. 1957 and 1966. 1 0 lb id . 1 1 Ibid., p. 443, 451. 1 2 l b i d „ p. 441. 1 3 l b i d d p. 445, 452. - 106-CHAPTER 5 P/RIVATE INVESTMENT AND TRANSPORTATION MODES (5.1) Introduction The major theme or relationship to be examined in this thesis is that between regional economic growth and transportation networks in a resource region. This chapter analyzes the relationship by bringing together the data on private investment inththe study region with the characteristics of the transportation networks mentioned in Chapter 2 and 3. The data on private investment in the study region came from provincial government sources. Because of the lack of (investment) data in general and because the data that exists is not complete, no statistical comparisons will be made with the investment data and measures of accessibility. The comparisons will be of a descriptive nature. (5.2) The Area Under Investigation It was originally intended that this thesis should only deal with the transportation networks and investment in the Peace River Region. However, as explained in Chapter 3, the areal coverage was expanded to include the Prince George-Quesnel area. One of the reasons for this was that it was decided it would be of interest to look at centers such as Prince George and Quesnel, which had rail connection for many years, to act as a comparison with centers that have more recently been connected with the rail network. Another reason for expanding the areal coverage was that the investment data is very scarce for some areas and years in the Peace River Region (CD. 10), and by expanding the areal coverage, a more comprehensive picture of investment as a response to transportation inputs would be possible. - 107 — (5.3) Sources of Investment Data The data came from statistics compiled by the provincial government. The collection of data began in 1953 and comes from either the Department of Trade and Industry or the Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. From 1953-1957 the data was taken from the publication Industrial Expansion in British Columbia by Census  Divisions, from the Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Department of Trade and Industry. During the period 1957-1969 this publication was put out by the Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. In 1969, the name was shortened to Industrial Expansion in British Columbia. While there have been changes in title or with departments in charge of publication, the format used for gathering and presenting the data has basically remained the same. The completeness and reliability of the data are, however, not what is desired for a thorough study. For the earlier period, some of the information came from direct contact with firms, but much came from such secondary sources as building permits, press releases, trade journals and news media. Some of the figures for these earlier years covered the complete cost of the project while other figures just included the cost of the building construction. Minor projects or projects of a confidential nature were excluded. Later editions separated the expenditures more explicitly and although a more inclusive survey than earlier :editions>. they were still not a complete survey. The later editions depended more on questionnaires, yet secondary sources were still necessary and there were still many problems with confidential information. The data was therefore neither as complete nor as accurate as desired. However this data was used as it was the only concise year to year regional summary of investment available. The problem with the incompleteness of data is, in the final analysis^  not as much of a problem as it might at first appear. As suggested earlier, this study is primarily - 108-concerned with responses to rail network changes. The responses to the rail extensions will likely be in the resource sectors and these are fairly accurately reported in the publications used. (5.4) Investments for the 1953-1971 Period Table XXV is a list of all private investment in northeastern B.C. for 1953-1971 as reported in the publications discussed in section 5.2 It omits all government investments and investments of the public utility company B.C. Hydro and Power Authority (and its predecessor B.C. Electric). All investments in this and other tables are listed in the year in which the initial investment was made and the total investment is quoted as occurring in that year even though the investment may have been spread over several years. (This avoided the almost impossible task of dividing the investment over the period of construction, as a $100 million project which took five years to complete would not necessarily have had the investment spread out in five even $20 million installments). Table XXV reveals some facts about investments over this nineteen year period. The investments are unevenly spread over the fourteen industrial categories. Some categories (the wood and the petroleum and coal products industries) received investments more consistently than other categories. Another group received clumps of investments for a few years, then years with no investment, followed by another clump of investments. This is especially evident in the paper and allied industries, the transportation industries and the petroleum and coal products industries. The third fact is that investments become more regular towards the end of the study period than at the beginning. This reflects both the growth and diversity of the region. The fourth factor evident is that some categories have much larger amounts of investments than do other categories. The paper and allied industries and the transportation industries have the largest total investments and are each four times greater than ""O ^ ' T N ' " 'N T \ T \ r>\ r»\ r>\ f * N v.^  \ n \r* \r> \jy \n • f. *~> '-> O U. )^ o v.n ^- -J ro w J j \D Oa -o O v/i vo v O O O O O O O o o o o |Vood . Industr ies o o ttetal F a b r i -c a t i ng Indus t r i es CO v O vn 01 o E l e c t r i c a l Products Indus t r i e s o o o o o o o o ca o N o n - M e t a l l i c Products Indus t r i es Trade •Industries ^ 1—• 1—• to sO o O \n o o v O O -0 ro r o o O v » O O o o o o o o o ca o 0 o o Pacer & A l l i e d Indus t r i e s • F -0 v O r o r o ca 0 1 1 I - 1 0 UJ UJ v O ca 1 r o 1 1 Transpor ta t ion • F -O U J F -•F -O - O UJ •F" O r o V/1 O vj> 0 r o 0 vjn 0 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,700 I ndus t r i e s C O 1 UJ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -p~ 1 • 1 1 . U t i l i t i e s • F -00 0 v O M O -0 0 v n O O Indus t r i e s o o o I Food and i Beverage Indus t r i e s o UJ o o o o o O UJ O v/> o o o o o o o o Petroleum and Coal Products Indus t r i es o o Chemical and Chemical Products Ind . ~3 < O C 3 -3 PJ X P! X *- X w < H PI to o 3 O o o o o ! Min ing Others 0 r r \ fO 110 \_i O O O \ J 1 100 Agriculture r o • J O r o v_n t J C O f> r o \ . n vO w ro VO ro -0 r o r j »—» ; j ,oco -0 r o -0 -v. 0 O O -0 0 t~< • 0 0 O 2?,0 ,270 " N 1-/ Total -601 -- 1 1 0 -the petroleum and coal products industry which is the third largest category. There are two general conclusions that should be drawn from Table XXV. First, it is clear that the frequency of investments increases towards the end of the study period. Secondly, the investments are more consistent and larger in those industries directly or indirectly related with natural resources (i.e. with the forest or petroleum and natural gas). Table XXVI is a percentage breakdown by category and year of investments over the 14 categories and 19 years. Looking at the last row (and Table XXVII) it can be seen that the investment categories can be broken into three classes. In the first class are those categories which contain a large percentage of the total investment. This class includes the transportation industries and the paper and allied industries with 42.2% and 41.6% of the total. The transportation industries represent, almost exclusively, pipeline construction. The paper and allied industries investments are those involving pulp and paper mills and extensions to these. In the second class are those investments which represent a medium size range of investments. Petroleum and coal products industries received 9.0% of the total investment while the wood industries received 3.6%. The petroleum and coal products industries received 9.0% of the total investment while the wood industries received 3.6%. The petroleum and coal products industry was mainly represented by gas and oil refineries while the wood industries included sawmills, veneer plants, lumber mills and plywood plants. The third class includes those industries which received less than 1% of the money invested. Within this class are the utilities (0.8%), mining (0.8%), chemical and chemical products (0.6%), non-metallic products (0.4%), trade (0.4%) food and beverage (0.1%), agriculture (0.1%), electrical products (less than 0.1%), and metal fabricating (less than 0.1%). - Ill -TABLE XXVII PERCENTAGE AND ACTUAL INVESTMENT IN INDUSTRIAL CATEGORIES PERCENTAGE ACTUAL CATEGORY INVESTMENT INVESTMENT (000) Transportation Industries 42.2% $ 409,463 Paper & Allied Industries 41.6% 403,915 Petroleum & Coal Products Ind. 9.0% 87,622 Wood Industries 3.6% 34,798 Utilities .8 8,480 Mining .8 8,000 Chemical & Chem. Prod. Ind. .6 6,000 Non-metallic Prod. Inc. .4 3,590 Trade Ind. .4 3.057 Food & Beverage Ind. .1 1,624 Agriculture .1 962 Electrical Products Ind. <.1 898 Metal Fabricating Ind. <C-1 725 Source: Table 25 and 26 - 113 — Of the two largest classes which overshadowed all others in terms of size of investment, the paper and allied industries is of most interest in this thesis as it relates to the two modes of transportation being considered (see section 5.6). The wood industries, while representing a modest 3.6% of total investment are of relatively more importance than this share would indicate. The wood industries are the basis of the paper and allied industries in the region and the capital-employment ratio of the wood industries is much higher than in the paper, transportation or petroleum industries. Table XXVIII lists the proportion of total investments that occurred jn each year. By grouping these figures, four classes based on amount of total investment emerged. Class I includes the year 1970 with 31.1% of total investment. Class II includes three years: 1971 (16.7%), 1963 (15.0%) and 1960 (10.2%) and Class III includes 1965 (7.1%) and 1964 (6.4%) while Class IV includes the other twelve years, all of which had 4% or less of the total investment. Table XXIX breaks the total investment in each category into yearly figures on a percentage basis. It appears that most categories receive their investments in a few large blocks rather than spread out evenly over the whole time period. This is clearly evident in the transportation industries, the paper and allied! industries and the petroleum and coal products industries among the major industries and also among many of the smaller industries. Other industries such as the wood products industries or the non-metallic products industries had their investments spread out more evenly over the time span. Tables XXV to XXIX have broken down the overall investment data into classes and categories. From this, a series of patterns may be discerned. There is a pattern of linkages between resource based categories and later linked activities and there is a pattern of the frequency of - 114 -TABLE XXVIII PERCENTAGE AND ACTUAL INVESTMENT: 1953-1971 CLASS YEAR PERCENTAGE AMOUNT (000) 1970 31,1% 303,754 II II II 1971 63 60 16.7% 15.0% 10.2% 162,441 145,760 98.970 III 1965 64 7.1% 6.4% 68,767 62,525 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 1961 69 66 59 57 56 68 67 58 54 55 53 3.6% 2.9% 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% .7% .5% .3 .3 .2 <-1 <.1 35,060 27,938 21,000 12,137 12,075 6,270 5,225 3,125 3,050 1,660 230 157 Source: Table 25 and 26 TABLE XXIX PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN NORTHEASTERN B . C . - BY YEAR AND INDUSTRIAL CATEGORY (PERCENTAGE) i •H to u 1 to r H (0 10 to (0 0) x> 4) CD 4) 4) cu CO •H CU •H O W -H u W ' r l •H •H t . U . • H p t , •rt P U 1H •a 4-' b O P U O p r H O p P X) P 10 r H R 10 4-> 3 to r H 3 to 0) 10 tv. CU to X) 3 «J •H 3 o x ) 3 1 COT) 3 x) 3 4) •H 3 O X) P P X> CO O T> Ci P o x) CO X) O . H x) o a 01 CO C >-t u a WPUH O CU ( O H C U H Z S S . H P-, << M 1953 - - - - — -54 0 - - - - -55 0 - 2 - -56 - - - - - -57 - - - 2 - -58 - - - - 7 -59 2 14 - 2 24 -60 2 - - - 2 -61 0 - - - - -62 _ - - - - -63 4! - - 2 - 20 64 14 - 84 3 3 14 65 4 - 16 8 25 16 66 17 - - - - -67 5 86 - - - -63 7 _ - 14 7 -69 28 - - 61 3 1 70 5 - - - 6 47 71 11 - 6 22 3 TOTAL 99 100 100 100 99 101 ci o • H P to £ o p. to to 0) • r l P 10 3 x) 5 24 9 16 : 0 0 0 20 30 100 to cu •H P •H r H •H P to CD •H U P to 3 TJ C M 53 0 46 99 to X I CU vH d Mt-, CO CO P U tn x> cu 3 O >-a £5 35 3 15 12 14 13 7 99 4 CU r H O P cd v o to 4) P t. 3 W x) 3 o x> >% a PU M 14 0 7 12 2 4 31 .30 102 <$ to cu H H n -H cd cd p u o o o p • H ' H P n a sxi 3 CU 0) O x ) x: xi u a o o a, M 71 23 101 h0 •S .9 100 100 to u a> .c p o 79 21 100 Source: Table XXV - 116-investments to increase towards the end of the study period. The remaining sections of this chapter attempt to explore these and other patterns by relating investment in particular industrial categories to the demand for and supply of transport units to the region over the time period of the study. (5.5) The Transportation Industries Approximately 50% of all money invested in the transportation industries occurred in 1970 and 1971 (Table XXIX). This involved the construction of pipelines into and out of Fort Nelson. Another 24% of the total investment resulted from construction of pipelines from Fort Nelson in 1960 and a further 9% involving a pipeline from Taylor in 1961. A total of 83% of the investment in this category occurred in four years. But the connection of this with either the rail or road mode is slight, as investment in this category is related to discovery, market demand and corporate decisions and not on transportation links. (5.6) The Paper and Allied Industries The paper and allied industries demonstrate a similar clustered investment pattern. Approximately 47% of all investment in this category, occurred in 1970. This was the result of the beginning of construction of two pulp mills, one in Quesnel and the other in Mackenzie, plus expansion at existing mills in Prince George. The other important years were 1963, 1964 and 1965 which received respectively 20%, 14% and 16% of the total investment in this category (Table XXIX). This represented construction of three pulp mills in Prince George. Thus, 97% of the investment in this category occurred in four years. - 1 1 7 -Investment in this category is determined by a number of factors, including world demand, supply of raw materials and the supply of or existence of transportation;Given world demand and the supply of raw materials the question that this thesis considers is what has been the influence of the transportation units supplied. From personal correspondence with firms in Quesnel, Prince George and Mackenzie it appears that for the paper and allied industries category, a rail network was essential to their estab-lishment. For two of the companies surveyed, from 80 to 90% of the raw materials (chips, pulp and chemicals) are shipped to the plant site by rail with the average distance being 100-150 miles. Reasons for using this mode over the truck mode were, in order of importance, freight rates, size of container (box car) and frequency of service. One of the companies suggested that to use trucks instead of the rail mode would cost 30% more. (Another firm surveyed used the road mode 85% of the time with an average inbound shipment distance of 40 miles. This firm suggested that as its supply points were so scattered it could not use rail for inbound shipments). While there was some difference between firms as regards inbound shipments there was no disagreement with regards outbound shipments. All three firms used the rail mode for outbound shipments (figures ranged from 95% to 100%) and suggested that while it would be possible to substitute modes it would cost at least 30% more. The markets of these firms were either in the eastern U.S. or Europe. An increase of 30% would, for tfthisi industry, represent intolerable transportation cost increases. (One of the firms suggested it would be impossible to ship their products to mahkets without using the rail network). The major reasons in this case for using rail were its cheaper rates, its frequency, the weight and volume rail cars can handle and the time in transit. In summary the factors that appear to have resulted in the investments in this industry in this region center around the raw materials available in the region, the world demand for pulp and paper and the - 118-characteristics of the transport units of the rail mode. The rail network is important for both the inbound shipments to the factory and the out-bound shipments to the markets. It appears likely that without a rail mode, it would have been impossible to establish this industry in this region. The exact timing of the building of these mills was determined by world demand, international money markets and corporate decision making processes but without the rail network these mills would not have been built.2 The exact location of the mills involves more micr.olevel decisions (dealing with such factors as supply of raw materials, water availability and location at the center of road and rail networks) but all mills needed direct connections with a rail network. (The link to Fort Nelson was built with the hope of attracting a pulp mill and while it has not yet, it would be impossible without the rail link, even given the existence of the raw materials). It appears that for the paper and allied industries, a rail link is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition. (5.7) Petroleum and Coal Products Industries The petroleum and coal products industry attracted 9.0% of the total private investment over the study period and represented the third largest investment category. The years with the largest investments in this category were 1970 and 1971 with 31% and 30% respectively of the total. (Table XXIX). The other major periods of investment were 1957 (14%) and 1966 (12%). The total investment in these four years is 87%. The majority of these investments were for gas or oil refineries, gas processing plants or gas distribution! outlets. These facilities are naturally tied into pipeline systems and often represent a break-of-bulk point in pipeline systems. The close correlation between these is seen from the - 119-fact that in 1970 and 1971 the petroleum and coal products industry received 31 and 30% of its total investment while the transportation industries (which is mainly composed of pipeline construction) received 20 and 30% of its investment in these years. However this category is much less dependent on road or rail transportation lines than most other industries. The important factors are the source of the raw materials, demand and corporate decisions. This industry can and often does build its own wd links to the well head and along pipelines. While equipment is needed at refineries and processing plants there is less concern over the mode used to deliver this, than other factors of production costs. Therefore, it is inappropriate to analyze this industry with reference to road or rail transportation networks as important components in the industry's decision to establish. (5.8) The Wood Products Industries This industry attracted the fourth largest investment by cate-gories, representing 3.6% of the total (Table XXVI). Total investment within this category was fairly evenly divided with four years accounting for 70% of the total. The leading years were 1969 with 28%, 1966 with 17%, 1964 with 14% and 1971 with 11% (Table XXIX). The investment was con-centrated in the later years and was especially consistent after 1963. Within the category were included lumber mills, sawmills, plywood plants, and veneer plants. The major determinants of investment in this category are supply of raw materials, demand for the products and markets. On the supply side, the study region contains over 25% of the total acreage of mature timber of the province and well over 15% of the immature timber.3 - 120 — The demand for wood products comes mainly from the U.S., Great Britain and Asia and is primarily based on house construction. From correspondence with firms in this industry and from published statistics, it is clear that for the woods products industries, rail transportation is an essential input. The personal correspondence with firms in the Prince George, Mackenzie and Chetwynd areas, revealed that the main reasons for establishing were the existence of raw materials, access to trans-portation and the presence of existing industries. For supplying the site with raw materials the truck mode was the most important with an average in-bound distance being 40-150 miles.1* Because of the scattered nature of the raw material it would have been impossible to substitute the rail mode at this stage. However, all firms surveyed agreed that a rail network was essential for moving products to markets. All firms replying, used the rail mode 100% of the time for shipping their product to market. This was because 95% of the output of these firms went to marekts in eastern U.S. and almost none to markets in B.C. That this is a reasonable breakdown of destinations can be seen from an examination of the 1969 or 1972 figures for shipments of sawn lumber and ties from all northern interior mills (Table XXX). While sawn lumber and ties do not cover the scope of items produced by the woods products industries, the trend is representative of this category's shipments. Table XXX shows that for sawn lumber and ties, approximately only 7% in 1969 and 5% in 1972 moved to points in Canada. From correspondence with the firms involved, the main reason given for using rail was the freight rate factor. Other reasons include the time in transit factor and the frequency factor. The majority of firms surveyed suggested that for moving products to markets, it would have been impossible to substitute another mode while one firm estimated that it would cost over 30% more to move the products to market by truck. - 121 -TABLE XXX SHIPMENTS (SALES) OF SAWN LUMBER AND TIES FROM NORTHERN MILLS (iri M.Ft.b.m.) 1969 1972 By truck & By truck & To local sale By Rail local sale By Rail Points in Canada 5,420 3,083 7,743 11,025 Points in U.S. 22 75,598 1,084 154,954 Points in U.K. • • • - - • • -Other Countries r . . — . . . — TOTAL 5,442 78,676 8,827 165,979 (6.5%) (93.5%) (5.4%) (94.6%) Figures not appropriate or not applicable No shipments Source: D.B.S. 35:003 Production, Shipments and Stocks OJI Hand of Sawmills in British Columbia, 1970, 1973. - 122 -In summary, it appears that for the wood products industries in general, a rail network is important both for moving raw materials to the production site and especially important in moving the finished goods to market.^  It is essential in the latter case for an inland area such as northeastern B.C. and is a consequence of the type of commodity and distance to markets. For certain commodities a transportation unit that can handle large volumes of bulky, heavy materials at a reasonable rate is essential. The location of the distant markets put these markets out of reach of truck transport. The existence of rail links for this industry was therefore an essential feature in its establishment in northeastern B.C. (5.9) Other Industries There are ten other industries, each of which received less than 1% of the total amount invested in northeastern B.C. These industries differ greatly in their importance to the region, the number of years they received investments and the factors influencing investment in them. Some receiving investments in only one or two years and thus will not be analyzed in great detail. However it will be useful to briefly look at all of these industries. The utilities products industries and the electrical products industries are two industries which will not be dealt with in any detail. Each has investments in only two of the nineteen years and is a function of the size of the community or the industrial makeup of the community. The metal fabricating industries also received investment in only two of the nineteen years and therefore will not be examined in detail, except to point out the investment in 1967 (an aluminum sulphate plant) was linked to the establishment of the pulp mills in Prince George and this, as argued in section 5.6 was directly connected to the establishment of a rail link. - 123 — The mining industry is represented by only one investment, this being the Churchill Copper Mine which began production in 1970 but has since ceased operation. At first, the mine shipped its production by truck (from west of Fort Nelson) to rail head at Dawson Creek. However, when the rail link reached Fort Nelson, the mine began to ship by rail. While in this particular case (i.e. a high value-to-weight metal) a rail link was not a necessity, a rail link is usually required before an investment at the production stage in mining is undertaken. The fact that the railway was used as soon as it was built suggests that the characteristics offered by rail transportation were superior to those offered by road. While there are not sufficient data to determine exactly which characteristic(s) was the main drawing factor for the rail system it seems likely that freight rates and/or capacity characteristics were significant. The investment in the chemical and chemical products industries was spread over three years and in total represented 0.6% of the investment being considered. The important years were 1966 with 71% of its investment, 1970 with 23% and 1958 with 7%. (Table XXIX). The investments were in a sulphuric acid plant, a sodium chlorate plant, a sulphate pulp plant and a natural gas industry while the other investments were linked with the pulp and paper industry. Generally the chemical and chemical products industry is market orientated and the industry in the study area is no exception. Two Prince George companies in this category replied to the questionnaire. These com-panies established to serve existing or potential markets in the area and received 95-100% of their inputs by rail from Vancouver sources. The inputs were moved a distance of 500 miles and the characteristics of the rail mode which were most important were the freight rate, size of shipping units, weight each unit could carry, the frequency and the time in transit. One company suggested that on inbound traffic it would be possible to switch modes but it would cost lf>20% more and it would be less satisfactory - 124 -because the highway mode would not be as fast. The other firm suggested that it would not be possible to substitute modes on inbound traffic because the distance factor would result in a rate for the highway mode of 30% or more above the railway rate; On the outbound shipments from the factory the story is somewhat different. The distance to markets is much less than the distance the raw materials must move. The market for these firms was 70-90% in the community and 30-10% in either northern B.C. or the rest of B.C. The products thus move a relatively short distance to market but suprisingly still rely on the rail mode. One of the firms used the rail mode 99% while the other used in 92% of the time for shipping goods to markets. The characteristics of the rail mode compared to the road mode that were important were rates, size, weight and time in transit, frequency and door to door service. Both firms agreed that substitution of modes was possible, but it would raise transportation costs by 10-20%. The rail links were therefore important for this industry. The industry received investment in this area only after substantial markets developed in the community. This came about with the establishment of a large pulp and paper industry in the area, which itself was directly connected with the establishment of the rail link from the south. Thus the chemical and chemical products industry in the Prince George area is a consequence of the pulp and paper industry which was related to the coming of the railway. The exact timing of the completion of the rail network and the investments in the industry are impossible to correlate, but its existence and general location are a direct consequence of the existence of a rail network which was built to encourage the establishment of resource-based and related industries. The non-metallic products industry received investment in nine of the years covered by this study. The years of largest investment were 1969 with 69%, 1968 with 14%, 1965 with 8% and 1971 with 6% of its - 125 — investments (Table XXIX). Of the total amount invested in this category in this region, 89% occurred in four years and represented 0.4% of all private investment in this region over the study period. The majority of the investments in this category were in Prince George or Quesnel and consisted of cement block plants, brick plants, and asphalt paving plants. It is difficult to summarize this category without a comprehensive survey of the different types of firms involved. This proved impossible as only one firm in this category responded to the questionnaire. But traditional location theory would suggest that firms in this industry are market oriented and produce a product that could not bear a great deal of transportation in its finished state, as it would have a low value-to-weight ratio and because the market would tend to be dispersed. This latter factor implies that for marketing the product the road mode would be the more practical. The one questionnaire that was received from a firm in this industry came from a concrete building block manufacturer in Dawson Creek. The firm established to obtain access to markets and received 50% of its inputs by rail and 50% by truck, with the average rail inbound shipment being 375 miles. Frequency and time in transit were seen as important characteristics for inbound raw materials. For distributing the finished product, the firm used only the road mode with 60% of its markets being within a 100 miles radius and 40% of the markets being in the rest of B.C. The firm felt that rates were the important consideration and that if the rail mode was substituted for shipping the finished product to market, it would cost 10-20% more. How representative the above information is of this industry is difficult to determine. A particular mode does not seem to be a necessary or sufficient condition for the growth of investment in this industry. The inputs used and products produced both have a low value-to-weight characteristic and can be moved by either mode. A more thorough examination of the transportation units demanded by this industry is required before the role of transportation in this industry in this region can be properly assessed. The agricultural products industry received its investment over five years and the investment consisted of three grain elevators, a poultry and a seed cleaning plant. The elevators were built in Dawson Creek in 1953 and in Fort St. John in 1958 and 1968. The major investment years were 1967 (52% of the total), 1964 (20%), 1968 (11%), 1958 (10%), and 1953 (6%). (Table XXIX). Much of the investment in this industry can be tied directly to the rail link that has reduced the distance to market for grain. The major market for grain... products from this area had traditionally been the lower Fraser Valley. Before 1958 the northern part of the study region (i.e. the Peace River Region) had' been connected with the lower Fraser Valley by a circular rail path southeast to Edmonton and then west through Kamloops to the Fraser Valley. The rail distance of over 1200 rail miles was an obstacle to increased regional production, as only certain types of grain could be economically transported this distance. With the establishment of the rail link to Dawson Creek and Fort St. John the distance was reduced from about 1200 to about 700 miles and over the following few years there was a considerable expansion in the acreage under cultivation. Between 1961 and 1966 in this region there was over a 50% increase in the acreage cultivated.7 The questionnaire from grain elevators confirmed that for moving grain from the elevator to market, the rail mode is the only practical mode. Trucks were used exclusively to bring the grain into the elevator with the average inbound shipment being 35 miles. The fact that the raw materials are so dispersed and the distance so short eliminates the use of the rail mode for inbound shipments. - 127-For moving the grain from the elevator to its market however required transportation characteristics that only the rail mode could supply. While there was no exact figure given for how much was moved out by rail and road, the fact that 98% of the wheat from this elevator is sent to markets in the rest of B.C. with the other 2% marketed in eastern Canada suggests the use of the rail mode. The majority of the 98% that is shipped to the rest of B.C. goes to markets in the Fraser Valley and all of this is shipped by rail. Table XXXI shows the increases in the number of grain boxcars moved by B.C.R. over 20 years of the study period. The large increase between 1958 and 1960 is mainly the result of the link to Dawson Creek and Fort St. John which gave the region a shorter connection with the grain market area of the Fraser Valley. The characteristics of the rail mode that were attractive to moving grain were the rates, volume and weight that could be moved and the ability to supply a large number of transportation units at a specific season. This rail link is now therefore an important factor in the agricultural sector of this region. The final two industrial categories dealt with are the trade industries and the food and beverage products industries which received 0.4% and 0.1% respectively of the total investment. The trade industries include a' wide range of industries from machinery distribution to service and sales depots for sawmill and logging equipment, to an electrical apparatus warehouse. This represents such a range of services that without a comprehensive survey it is impossible to determine which mode most often supplied the transportation service demanded. The food and beverage products industries demonstrates many of the same characteristics. It covers industries of such diverse nature that it is difficult to determine which characteristics or which competitive factors the industry as a whole is drawn to or depends upon. In this category are a brewery, a dairy and a meat processing plant. To determine which mode was used most frequently would require a survey of a much more detailed nature TABLE XXXI B.C.R. GRAIN CARLOADINGS 1950-1970 1950 '52 '54 '56 '58 '60 '62 '64 '66 '68 '70 Grain Cars 118 119 95 99 116 1261 1861 209.1 2786 3421 4667 % of Previous - 101 80 104 117 1087 148 112 133 123- 194 .Year Source: B.C.R. Annual Report. 1972 - 129-than is possible here. Perhaps it is safe to assume the figure used by the B.C.R. when calculating the amount of general freight that it expects to capture by extending a line into a new region. It estimates that, after penetrating an area, it can capture about 50% of the general freight of the area and this figure may apply to the trade industries and the food and beverage industries. (5.10) Summary Chapter 5 concentrated on examining the investments by category and over time. The investments were unevenly distributed with the majority occurring in the southern part of the study area (i.e. the Prince George-Quesnel area) and concentrated in the latter half of the study period (1960-71). There were also great differences in the amounts, with some categories receiving much more investment than others. Based on size of investments, there were three classes or categories. The first class included the transportation industries (with 42.2% of the total investment) and the paper and allied industries (41.6%). The second class included the petroleum and coal products industries (9% of total investment) and the wood products industries (3.6%), while the third class or category included the other ten industries all of which had less than 1% of the total private investment (Table XXVII). This reflects the economic character of the region which is dominated by the pulp and paper and petroleum and gas industries. The investment tended to have a * temporal as well as a category bias. Two years, 1970 and 1971 accounted for 48.0% of all investment, while four other years 1963 (15.0%), 1960 (10.2%), 1965 (7.1%), and 1964 (6.4%) accounted for 86.7% of the total investment. - 130 — There are certain underlying factors that appear when the investments are examined category by category. Of the five categories whose investments were either initially pr subsequently tied to the establishment of the rail network, three categories were directly linked to natural resources. These included the paper and allied industries, the wood products industries, and the agriculture industries. Secondly, the majority of these industries served markets that were at least 500 and in some cases thousands of miles away. Thirdly, many of the industries that were heavily dependent on the rail mode were themselves linked to other such industries. Thus much of the wood industries and all the chemical and chemical products industries were linked to the establishment of the pulp and paper industries. Fourthly, many industries required a transportation unit that included the following characteristics: competitive rates, large volume units, units with large weight capacities, certain frequency and reasonable time in transit characteristics. And finally, these industries felt that in most cases it would have been possible to substitute for the rail mode but this would have involved a 10-30% increase in transportation charges. This chapter has isolated those industries in which investment can be tied to the development of or characteristics of, transport networks. The final chapter will discuss this in the context of regional development. REFERENCES 'Hunt reported that for wood chips the break even point for truck (that is the point at which trucks become more expensive than rail) is about 50 miles. Hunt, 1967, p. 68. It is not only the existence of a rail connection that is important for this industrial sector; it is also the fact that the railroad must want to encourage the development of this sector. It was the B.C.R., through its special rates, that allowed this industry to develop at this time in this area. The C.N.R. did not offer the rates that the B.C.R. was willing to offer to obtain the business, although a C.N.R. route to tidewater had existed since the 1920's. 3Regional Index of B.C.. 1966, p. 425, 512. 4The break even point for logs, for trucks is about 70 miles. See Parchomchuk, 1968, p. 25. ^For truck movements with no backhaul and rail movements with no re-shipment obligations, the break even point is about 200 miles. For trucks, with a backhaul of lumber the break even point is about 515 miles. But if there is a reshipment of lumber (i.e. logs to mill — lumber from mill) the break even point is 35 miles, in favour of rail. See Parchomchuk (1968). 6Hoover, 1948, Ch.3-5. Dawson, 1970, p. 57. - 132 -CHAPTER 6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS (6.1) Object of the Thesis The object of this thesis was to examine the relationship between regional economic growth in a resource area and development of transportation networks. This relationship involves several variables, some of which were singled out for investigation. These variables included the resources and stage of development of the region as well as its transport networks. Each of these variables was analyzed so that its contribution could be discerned. Of those variables investigated, most emphasis was, of course, given to transportation. Four aspects of the transport networks were given special attention. Firstly, the timing and manner of construction of the trunk and feeder lines of the networks were reviewed. A difference was noted between the road network which developed its basic trunk line in the early 1950's and the rail network which did not. Secondly, the form of each new major link built over the twenty years of the study was discussed in terms of whether the link was an intraregional or interregional link. This led to the tentative conclusion that many of the rail links were interregional and many of the road links intraregional. A third aspect of the networks considered was the type of freight carried. The figures reviewed in connection with this suggested that the freight carried on the road net-work in this type of region, consisted generally of consumer products with little agricultural, forestry or mineral products. Finally a measure of access-ibility was developed for each network. This measure suggested that there were greater relative changes in the road network, over the time span considered, than in the rail network. The information generated from the examination of these four aspects, gave an understanding of the transport networks of the region. This information, combined with the information generated on the resources and stage of development of the region, and the ideas brought forward from the literature review, was used to examine the main contention of the thesis. That is, that in a frontier region, transportation is theoretically and empirically an important agent in the promotion of regional economic growth. (6.2) Results of the Thesis Several relationships were outlined in this thesis between invest-ment in certain economic categories and development of transportation networks. Investments were found to be related to the timing and location of the networks and to their attributes. An initial overview of the results showed that some investments were related to a particular mode. For example, there was a relationship between investments in particular industrial categories and the timing of construction of the rail network. Examples included investments in the pulp and paper category coming after extensions of the rail network to the area, and the expansion of (and thus investment in) the agricultural sector in the Peace River Region after the rail network reached this area in 1958. Another pattern that emerged was the relationship between investments in certain categories and the processing characteristics of these sectors (which relate to their transportability). Thus, there was a relationship between invest-ment in certain categories and the weight loss factor in the processing of the products involved. The wood products industries and the paper and allied industries are two examples. - 134 — While these general relationships represent important conclusions that can be drawn from a cursory review of the thesis, results contradictory to those mentioned above demonstrate the importance of a more thorough review. Examples of contradictory results included investments not initially related to the rail mode, such as the investment in the copper mine when no rail link existed; and the investments in the non-metallic products category (brick and block manufacture) which uses, but not exclusively, the road network. These relationships, which did not fit in with the general conclusions, were examined and explained in terms of traditional location theory (see Chapter 5). Aside from these general conclusions, there were more specific ' conclusions which dealt in greater detail with the types of categories involved or the attributes of particular modes. It became clear that the natural resources of the region were an important variable in its economic growth. Of five major growth categories, four (pulp and paper, wood products, agriculture and metal fabricating) were related either directly or closely to the primary (resource) industries. Of these four categories, three exported the majority of their products from the region (pulp and paper, wood products and agriculture). This verified that the region is at an early stage or level of development and suggests that in the next few years, expansion should become more pronounced in some secondary (manufacturing and construction) industries and perhaps in the trade sector (see Section 2.3). This also lends support to the idea discussed earlier that the interregional links of the railway network were very important in the economic development of this region. A disaggregation of the study region's investments over its area gave support for this sequence of growth. The data presented in Chapter 4 confirmed that when the study region was divided into northern and southern parts, the southern or Prince George-Quesnel area, whose development had started earlier, experienced growth in the secondary category while the - 135 — northern or Peace River Region experienced growth in the primary category and tertiary categories. Other conclusions dealt with the characteristics of a mode which made it more attractive or cheaper as a conveyor of a particular type of freight. These characteristics, such as the nature of freight charges, weight and volume restrictions, frequency of service, and capacity, have been the subject of much research. In this study certain relationships were verified. In particular it became clear that it was those goods with low value-to-weight ratios (i.e. those goods that had a high elasticity of demand for transfer services) that most often moved by rail. For example, the pulp and paper products, wood products and agricultural products moved on the rail network while many manufactured and consumer goods (high value-to-weight ratios) moved on the road network. This was also verified from the Alaska Highway study quoted in Chapter 3. The information generated also suggested that freight which could only bear a small transportation charge, which needed a large capacity potential or which relied on frequency of service, favoured the rail network. Those categories which could afford higher transport charges or which needed specialized services relied on the highway network (e.g. consumer goods). A specific finding was that when there was a choice between modes, (when before there had been no choice), some freight switched modes. Thus the movement of copper from west of Fort Nelson was diverted from the road to the rail system, when the rail network reached Fort Nelson. Another conclusion to be drawn from this study dealt with the linked nature of the production process and the development of activities in the study region. The traditional sequence of development is primary to secondary and then tertiary activities. This process can be traced in this region as the pattern of investments moved, over time, from the primary activities (agriculture, logging and sawmilling) to secondary activities (which in this case were represented by pulp and paper sector and the construction sector). Without the rail network, expansion into secondary activities in this region would have been much slower and perhaps impossible. If the conclusions are accepted, a relationship between the nature of transport facilities and investment in economic production has been dem-onstrated. The former has been found to strongly influence the latter. T o demonstrate and conf i rm this relationship in nthis 1 region was the main purpose of this thesis. (6.3) L imitat ions of the Results While the general relationships under study in this thesis have been verified, there are a number of problem areas which could affect the complete acceptance of the results. These problem areas center around the data used and the accessibility measurements developed. Problems with the data center on the investment statistics and on the data on the resrouces of the region. Both the completeness and accuracy of the investment data could be questioned; but this is inherent in the nature of the data available and beyond the control of the thesis. A lso exact data on the location and amount of, and the demand for, the resources of the region are impossible to obtain. There are also problems with the measures of accessibility developed in the thesis. The speeds used to weight the road network and time periods chosen to represent changes in the road and rail networks were generated f rom available data and may not be completely representative of the networks of the area. - 137-However, for two reasons, these problems do not invalidate either the results or the usefulness of this study. Firstly, this study has produced results similar to those already well accepted, tested and validated in geographical, economic and planning fields. Secondly, this study was not set up as a rigorous "statistical or analytical study. If data is found or generated that contradicts the data used in this study, the accessibility figures of this study may be question in relative terms but the general conclusions would not change. (6.4) Model for Development of a Frontier Region Besides the examination of the relationship mentioned above, one purpose of this study was to develop a model that would summarize in a general form the stages of growth in this type of region, so that the model might have applicability in similar regions. This model was developed from theories and ideas discussed in Chapter 2 and from the empirical results obtained in the thesis. It is a general model which describes a logical sequence of development for a resource based region, passing through the initial phases of development. The basic assumption behind the model is that of a frontier region. This implies sparse settlement, an underdeveloped infrastructure (espeically transportation), with an economic dependence on the primary activities and a poorly developed urban hierarchy. The model also assumes that the region is isolated from major (i.e. large) markets and manufacturing centers; that the region is part of a larger developed economy which gives the region access to modern technology and supplies of capital and labour; and that the region is responsive to world demands and has no political restraints on the development of its resources. The model outlines three stages or levels of development and traces the growth process from the underdeveloped - 138 — stage to the stage of development of manufacturing activities. In traditional terminology, this would involve a progression to the secondary level of activities. However, today many regions are experiencing growth in their tertiary activities before experiencing growth in their secondary activities and as a result, the more traditional classification scheme has been altered. The initial stage of the model is characterized by a poorly developed road network. The road network links the region to other regions and the "world's markets" but the network is of a poor quality. At this time, the network tends to be composed of a major "spine" through the area with few branches. This initial path into the region facilitates some settlement and an inventory of potential resources of the region. At this point there would be few exports, and those exports which did exist would be of a high value-to-weight ratio because of the relatively high cost of transportation and distance to markets. Certain minerals, such as copper or asbestos or agricultural products such as beef cattle would be examples. The region possesses very poor quality intraregional links (and relatively few of these) and a poor quality interregional link. The second stage is influenced by either a change in world demand or a governmental decision to "open up" the region. Either of these will depend on and result in, development of the resources of the region. These resources which might be related to forestry, agriculture or mining (or hydro development) are the factors in which the region has a comparative advantage. The products of the forestry, agricultural or mining activities have two general characteristics: (1) their large size and mass and (2) their low value-to-weight ratio. These characteristics favour rail transport. A rail system can generally provide lower rates, greater size and weight capacities and a larger total capacity than the road system. The rail network provides "interregional links" with markets and manufacturing centers in other regions, this is a - 139 — major, but seldom emphasized, factor in the growth process of a resource region. During this stage there is little chance for the development of other secondary manufacturing because of the high thresholds. The region now possesses fairly well developed interregional links and relatively poorly developed intraregional links. The development of the resource sector traditionally brings large amounts of private investment into an area but relatively few people, as investment in this sector traditionally has a low employment-to-capital ratio. However, this type of resource sector development has the advantage of excellent possibilities for forward and backward linked growth within the region, because of its weight loss characteristics and the nature of inputs it uses. The third stage is characterized by an expansion in those activities linked to the resource sector. The inputs to the resource sector encourage diversification and expansion in related areas (e.g. in logging, saw-milling, seed plants) while the possibility of further weight reduction encourages expansion in forward related sectors (e.g. paper production, mineral processing, slaughtering). While these activities still make use of the transportation units supplied by the rail system, this stage sees the highway system becoming more competitive. The products of the region become more diversified, specialized and in general have a higher value-to-weight ratio than the earlier regional mix of products. As the destination of products becomes more dispersed and their value greater, the favoured transportation mode shifts to-wards the highway system. As the... regional mix of products begins to change, the employment capital ratio increases, and the urban hierarchy develops. There are thus two types of pressures, regional production mix and developing urban structure pressures, which encourage an expansion in the highway network. Intraregional links become more important and demand for higher quality highway links - 140 -puts pressure on governments to expand the highway system. Expansion in the supply of highway transportation units with their characteristic ability to handle smaller units of shipments, at a quicker rate, over a more dis-persed area, further encourages expansion in those areas which respond to this type of transportation. In a resource based region, this would tend to favour investment in further processing of natural resources. Further changes in the transport system are likely to be made in the highway network, which now becomes an intra- and interregional linkage system. The model therefore summarized the changing functions for the transport networks as a resource region develops. The initial highway network represented a poor quality interregional link and almost non-existent intra-regional links. The rail network represented an interregional link with the markets for the region's resource products. As the production mix of the region changed, a different type of interregional link was demanded and could best be supplied by an expanded highway system. At this time, the region's developing urban structure also produced a demand for an improved intra-regional system which was satisfied by an expanded and upgraded highway network. This helped lead to an expansion of some secondary and tertiary activities and a developing urban hierarchy. This leads to a demand for a further expansion in the (intraregional) highway system and then to a stage of development beyond that discussed in this thesis. The basis for this sequence of development rests on the characteristics of the transportation modes, the production mix of the region and the stages of development of the region. However this third stage should not be taken to imply a gradual disappearance of the functions of rail transport. Rail transport will retain its important position in most developed regions. Even in the later stages of development, rail systems are in demand for the movement of large sized manufactured goods, many smaller consumer and agricultural goods. The ability to handle the capacity and other requirements of the above mentioned freight, - 141 -ensures that the rail system will remain an important part of the total transportation picture. Also expansion in the areas of containerization, unit trains and joint rail-road operations has resulted in an increase in the importance and use of rail transport in regional transportation. (6.5) Final Remarks This thesis has developed a model based on consideration of some aspects of regional development and transportation systems. Ongoing research in the field of transportation geography is giving considerable atten-tion to the areas covered in this thesis including areas such as the develop-ment of measures of demand for modal characteristics. Also, attention is being given to the development of a manageable measure of the elasticity of demand and supply for products and transportation modes. While this type of research will supply many answers, other topics must also be examined before a complete picture of transportation's role in regional development is obtained. An area where more work is required is in the definitions and characteristics of "developmental" railways and "traditional railways". For example, a problem only briefly mentioned in this thesis was why the B.C.R. was able to promote development and growth in the study area, while the C.N.R. was not. The C.N.R. had provided a link between the Prince George area and Prince Rupert since the early 1920s. However, it was the B.C.R. not the C.N.R. that encouraged the growth of the wood and pulp and paper industries in the Prince George area. The reason for this seems to have been that the~ provincial government saw the B.C.R: as a railway for develop-ing the resources of the region and through special rates and other means (e.g. industrial parks) encouraged the development of the forestry sector in conjunction with the railway. Could the C.N.R. have done this years ago? Need a develop-mental railway be concerned with making a profit? How can a railway and highway policies be best used to encourage development of regions with different mixes of natural resources? These questions and many more deserve answers. - 143-BIBLIOGRAPHY A. References Cited 1) Government Publications B.C. Growth. 1952. 1960 and 1970 Forecast. 1963. Victoria: Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. For-Hire Trucking Survey of B.C. (1970). Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, catalogue 53-224. Industrial Expansion in British Columbia by Census Divisions. (1957-70). Victoria: Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. Industrial Expansion in British Columbia by Regions. (1971-73). Victoria: Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. Labour Force: Industry Divisions by Sex. (1951-1961). Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, catalogue 94-522. Labour Force: Occupation Divisions by Sex (1951, 1961). Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, catalogue 94-508. Regional Index of British Columbia, (1957, 1966). Victoria: Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. Report of the Forest Service. (1960-1970). Victoria: Dept. of Lands and Forests. - 144-2) Articles, books, periodicals, etc. Appleton, J.H., (1965). A Morphological Approach to the Geography  of Transport. Hull: University of Hull. Clark, C , (1940). The Conditions of Economic Progress. London: McMillan and Co. Daly, M.C., (1940). "An Approximation to a Geographic Multiplier," Economic journal. Vol. L, June-September, 248-258. Dawson, J .C , (1970). Northeastern British Columbia — An Economic Study. Planning and Development Department, Corporate Planning Division, B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, B.C. Denike, K.G. (i!972). The Role of Transportation Investment In Economic  Development: British Columbia. An Occasional Working Paper, The Centre for Transportation Studies, U.B.C Denike, K.G. and R. Leigh, (1972). "Economic Geography 1960-70." Studies in Canadian Geography. British Columbia, ed. by J. Lewis Robinson, Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 69-86. Deutsch, J.J., et. al., (1959). Economics of Primary Production in B.C. Vancouver: U.B.C. Financial Post Survey of Markets and Business Year Book. (1956-73) Toronto: Maclean-Hunter Publishing Co. Ltd. Gamble, E.P., (1972). The British Columbia Railway and Regional Development. Unpublished M.A. Thesis, University of British Columbia. Vancouver. Garrison, W.L., (1959, 1960). "Spatial Structure of the Economy," Annals of the Association of American Geographers. Vol. 44, 232-239, and 471-482 and Vol. 50, 357-373. - 145 -Garrison, W. and D. Marble, (1963). "Factor Analytic Study of the Connectivity of a Transportation Network," Papers and Proceedings  of the Regional Science Association. Vol. 12, 231-238. Gauthier, H.L., (1968). "Transportation and the Growth of the Sao Paulo Economy", journal of Regional Science. Vol. 8, "no. 1, 77-92. Garrison, W. and D.F. Marble, (1965). A Prolegomenon to the Fore- casting of Transportation Development. Final Report on Task DA 44-177-TC-685, U.S. Army Aviation Materials Laboratories. Hartshorne, R., (1966). Perspective on the Nature of Geography. Chicago: Rand McNally & Company. Harvey, D., (1969). Explanation in Geography. London: Edward Arnold Ltd. Hoover, E.M., (1937). Location Theory and the Shoe and Leather Industries. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Hoover, E.M. (1948). The Location of Economic Activity. New York: McGraw-Hill. Improvement Program for the Alaska Highway. (1966). Standford Research Institute, for Department of Northern Affairs and Natural Resources. Ottawa: The Queen's Printer. Investment Opportunities in British Columbia. The Peace River Region. Industry Profiles. Dawson Creek British Columbia: The Peace River Regional District Board, A.V. Gray and W.T. Uegama, 1969. Kanaan, N.J., (1965). "Structure and Requirements of the Transport Network of Syria", Highway Research Record. Vol. 115, 19-28. Kissling, C C . (1966). Transportation Networks Accessibility and Urban  Functions. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, McGill University. - 146-LOsch, A. (1938). "The Nature of Economic Regions," Southern  Economic journal, Vol. 5, No. 1 (July), 71-78. North, D.C, (1955). "Location Theory and Regional Economic Growth," journal of Political Economy. Vol. LXII, (June), 243-258. Pacific Great Eastern Railway. Pacific Great Eastern Railway. Annual  Report. Vancouver, British Columbia: Pacific Great Eastern Railway. Parchomchuk, W., (1968). Truck. Rail and Water Transport of Raw  Wood in the B.C. Forest Industry. Unpublished NLA. Thesis, University of B.C. Production. Shipments and Stocks on Hand of Sawmills in British Columbia. 1970, 1973. D.B.S. catalogue 35:003. O'Sullivan, P., (1969). Transport Networks and the Irish Economy. London School of Economics and Political Science, Geographical Papers No. 4. London: Weidenfeld and Nicholson. Perle, E.D., (1964). The Demand for Transportation: Regional and  Commodity Studies in the United States. Dept. of Geography, Research Paper No. 95, The University of Chicago. Robinson, I.M., (1961). "Peace River Region," Resources for Tomorrow  Conference. Montreal, 1971. Dept. of Northern Affairs and National Resources. Ottawa: The Queen's Printer. Stabler, J .C, (1968). "Exports and Evolution. The Process of Regional Change," Land Economics. Vol. 44, No. 1, (February), 11-23. Surti, V.H. and A. Ebrahimi (1972). "Modal Split of Freight Traffic," Traffic Quarterly. Vol. 27, No. 4 (October) 575-588. Taaffe, E.J., R.L. Morrill and P.R. Gould, (1963). "Transport Expansion in Underdeveloped Countries," Geographical Review. Vol. 53, (October), 503-529. - 147 -Tattersall, J.N., (1962) "Exports and Economics Growth: The Pacific  Northwest 1880 to 1960." Papers and Proceedings of Regional  Science Association. Vol. 9, 215-234. Thomas, B.E. (1956). "Methods and Objectives on Transportation Geography," The Professional Geographer. Vol. 8, No. 4, 2-5. Thomas, M.D., (1964). "The Export Base and Development Stages. Theories of Regional Economic Growth, An Appraisal," Land Economics. Vol. 40, No. 4 (November), 421-432. Tiebout, C M . , (1962). The Community Economic Base Study. Supplementary Paper No. 16, New York, New York: Committee for Economic Development. Townsend, D.R., (1973). Highway Investment in British Columbia 1964-71: A Study of the Spatial Distribution of Investment and an Assess- ment of its Impact on the Highway Network. Unpublished M.A. Thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver. Ullman, E.L., (1953). "Human Geography and Area Research", Annuals of the Association of American Geographers. Vol. 43, 54-66. Ullman, E.L. and H.M. Mayer, (1954). "Transportation Geography." American Geography: Inventory and Prospect, ed. P. James and C. Jones. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press. Varlamov, V.S., (1969). "Transport Development in the West Siberian Lowlands" Problems of the North. No. 12, 207-216. Ullman, E.L., (1956). "The Role of Transportation and the Basis for Interaction," Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth. ed. W.L. Thomas. Chicago: University of Chicago. Vasilevskiy, L.I., (1963). "Basic Research Problems in the Geography of Transportation of Capitalist and Underdeveloped Countries." Soviet Geography: Review and Translation. Vol. 4, No. 7, 36-58. - 148-de Weille, J., (1966). Quantification of Road User Savings. World Bank Staff Occassional Papers No. 2. Baltimore: The John Hopkins Press. Wheeler, J.O., (1970). "An Overview of Research in Transportation Geography." The East Lakes Geographer. Vol. 7, (December), 1-12. Webster, D.R., (1970). "The Effect of Immature Road Networks on the Central Place Hierarchy in Frontier Regions." Terra Vol. 82, 41-46. Wills, M.J., (1971). Development of the Highway Network. Traffic Flow  and the Growth of Settlements in the Interior of B.C. Unpublished M.A. Thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver. B. References Not Cited 1) Government Publications Agriculture in the Peace River Region of British Columbia (1972). Victoria: Department of Agriculture, Development and Extension Branch, Publication, No. 10. British Columbia Facts and Statistics. (1969-72). Victoria: Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. Manual of Resources and Development. 1967-71. Victoria: Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. Pacific Great Eastern Railway. Proposed Extensions and Potential Resources of Central Interior and Northern B.C.. 1949. Victoria: B.C. Dept. of Railways. The Peace River-Liard Region. (1966). Victoria: Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. Production. Shipments and Stocks on Hand of Sawmills in B.C.. (1950-70). Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, catalogue 25-003. The Pulp and Paper Industry of British Columbia. (1970). Victoria: Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. Economics and Statistics Branch. Pulp and Paper Mills. (1967). Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, catalogue 36-204. A Review of Resources. Production and Governmental Finances. (1950-61). Victoria: Department of Finance. The Sawmill Industry of British Columbia. (1972). Victoria: Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. Summary of Business Activity in British Columbia. (1950-62). Victoria: Department of Trade and Industry, Bureau of Economics and Statistics. Transactions of the British Columbia Natural Resources Conference (1948-71). Victoria: The British Columbia Natural Resources Conference. Trade and Industry Bulletin. 1967-71. Victoria: Department of Industrial Development, Trade and Commerce. 2) Articles, books, periodicals, etc. Barnard, J.R., J.A. MacMillan and W.R. Maki, (1969). "Evaluation Models for Regional Development Planning," Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association. Vol. 23, 117-133. Barkley, P.W. and T.H. Allison, Jr., (1968). "Economic Base Studies in Resource Administration," Land Economics. Vol. 44, No. 4 (November), 470-479. - 150 — Beckman, M.H., C.B. McGuire and C. Winston, (1956). Studies in the Economics of Transportation. New Haven: Yale University Press. Berry, B.J.L. and W.L. Garrison, (1958). "The Functional Bases of the Central Place Hierarchy," Economic Geography. Vol. 34, No. 2 (April), 145-155. Berry, B.J.L., (1959). "Recent Studies Concerning the Role of Transpor-tation in the Space Economy," Annals of the Association of  American Geographers. Vol. 49, (September), 328-342. Bell, F.W., (1967). "An Econometric Forecasting Model for a Region," lournal of Regional Science. Vol. 7, No. 2, 109-127. Black, W.R., (1971). "The Utility of the Gravity Model and Estimates of its Parameters in Commodity Flow Studies," Proceedings of the  Association of American Geographers. Vol. 3, 28-32. Boyce, D.E., (1964). Forecasting the Structure of Regional Transportation  Networks. Evanston, Illinois: Northwestern Univ., Transportation Centre. Brazzel, J.M. and W. Hicks, (1968). "Exports and Regional Economic Growth: An Evaluation of the Economic Base and Staple Models," Land Economics. Vol. 44, No. 4, (November), 503-509. Brindley, J. and A.M. Hay, (1972). "Passenger Transport Demand in West Africa: Submarkets and Their Spatial Structure," Economic Geography. Vol. 48, No. 3 (July) 258-269. Broadbent, J.S., (1959). "P.G.E. Meets the Challenge of the North," Transactions of the Twelfth B.C. Natural Resources Conference. 1959. Victoria: The British Columbia Natural Resources Conference. Campbell, T.C., (1963). "Transportation and Regional Economic Development," Transportation lournal. Vol. 3, No. 1 Fall. Christie, R.G. (1967). An Analysis of Chip Handling in the B.C. Interior. Unpublished M.A. Thesis, University of B.C. Chinitz, B., (1960). "The Effects of Transportation Forms On Regional Economic Growth," Traffic Quarterly. 129-143. Chinitz, B., (1970). "Appropriate Goals for Regional Economic Policy," Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, ed. by D.L. McKee, R.D. Dean, and W.H. Leachy, New York: The Free Press. Cole, L.M., (1968). "Transport Investment Strategies and Economic Development," Land Economics. Vol. 44, No. 3, (August), 307-317. Cooper, L., (1964). "Hueristic (Methods for Location Allocation Problems," SIAM Review. Vol. 6, 37-53. Cooper, L., (1967). "Solutions of Generalized Location Equilibrium Models," journal of Regional Science. Vol. 7, 1-19. Cootner, P.H., (1963). "Role of Railroads in U.S. Economic Growth," journal of Economic History. Vol. 23, No. 4, (December), 477-521. Dodge, W.E., (1968). "The Inherent Advantages of Carrier Modes Under the National Transportation Policy," Land Economics. Vol. 44, No. 4 (November), 493-502. Fogel, R.W., (1962). "A Quantitative Approach to the Study of Railroads in American Economic Growth: A Report of Some Preliminary Findings, The journal of Economic History. Vol. 22, No. 2 (June), 163-197. Fogel, R.W., (1964). Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays  in Econometric History. Baltimore: John Hopkins Press. Friedman, J. and W. Alonso, Eds., (1964). Regional Development and  Planning. Cambridge: MIT Press. Friedlander, A.F., (1969). The Dilemma of Freight Transport Regulations. Washington: The Brookings Institution. Frier, I.E. (1970) Acquisition Activity In the Western Canadian Trucking Industry and the Importance of Factors Influencing this Activity. Unpublished M.B.A. Thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver. - 1 5 2 -Fromm, G. ed., ( 1 9 6 5 ) . Transport Investment and Economic Development. Washington: The Brookings Institution. Garrison, W.L. et. al., ( 1 9 5 9 ) . Studies of Highway Development and  Geographic Change. Seattle: University Washington Press. Garrison, W., ( 1 9 6 0 ) . "Connectivity of the Interstate Highway System," Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association. Vol. 6 , 1 2 1 - 1 3 7 . Gray, J.S. ( 1 9 6 9 ) . The Character and Pervasiveness of Transport Completion  in the Movement of Commodities from Greater Vancouver Origins to  British Columbia Destinations. Unpublished M.B.A. Thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver. Haggett, P. ( 1 9 6 5 ) . Locational Analysis in Human Geography London: Edward Arnold Ltd. Haggett, P. and R.J. Chorley ( 1 9 6 9 ) . Network Analysis in Geography. London: Edward Arnold Ltd. Hansen, N.M., ( 1 9 7 0 ) "Unbalanced Growth and Regional Development," Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, ed. D.L. McKee, et. al., New York: The Free Press. Heavor, T.D., ( 1 9 6 6 ) . The Evaluation of Transportation Projects in  Northern B.C. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis, Indiana University. Heflebower, R.B. ( 1 9 6 5 ) . "Characteristics of Transport Modes," In Transport Investment and Economics Development, ed. Gary Fromm. Washington. The Brookings Institution. Hilhorst, J.G.M., ( 1 9 6 7 ) . Regional Development Theory. An Attempt to  Synthesis. The Hague, Mouton & Co. Hirschman, A.O., ( 1 9 5 8 ) . The Strategy—oi Fr.nnnmir, Development. New Haven: Yale University Press. - 153 — Houston, C. (1969). "Market Potential and Potential Transportation Costs: An Evaluation of the Concepts and their Surface Patterns in the U.S.S.R.," The Canadian Geographer. Vol. 13, 216-236. Hunt, W.A. (1967). "Economic Analysis of Wood Chip Pipeline," Forest Products lournal. Vol. 17, No. 9 (September) 68-74). Isard, W. (1951). "Distance Inputs and the Space Economy, Part I, The Conceptional Framework," Quarterly lournal of Economics. Vol. 65, No. 2, 181-198. James, P. and C. Jones (eds.), (1954). American Geography: Inventory  and Prospect. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press. Jenks, L.H., (1944). "Railroads as an Economic Force in American Development," The lournal of Economic History. Vol. 4, No. 1, 1-20. Kansky, K., (1963). Structure of Transportation Networks. Chicago University of Chicago, Dept. of Geography, Research Paper no. 84. Kissling, C C , (1969) "Linkage Importance in a Regional Highway Network," Canadian Geography. Vol. 13, 113-127. King, L.> . E. Casetti, J. Odland and K. Simple, (1971). Optimal Transportation Patterns of Coal in the Great Lakes Region," Economic Geography. Vol. 47, No. 3 (July), 401-414. Kleine, L.R., (1969). "The Specification of Regional Econometric Models" Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 23, 103-115. Kraft, G., J.R. Meyer and J.P. Valette, (1971) The Role of Transportation  in Regional Economic Development. Charles Rivers Associates Incorporated, Toronto. Lachine, R. (1965). "Networks and the Location of Economic Activity," Papers of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 14 (1965), 183-196. - 154-Lolosa, H. and T.A. Reiner, (1970). "The Economic Programming of a System of Planned Poles" Economic Geography. Vol. 46, No. 3 (July), 449-458. Manners, G., (1967). "Transport Costs, Freight Rates and the Changing Economic Geography of Iron Ore," Geography. Vol. 52, 260-279. Meyer, J.R. et. al., (1959). The Economics of Competition in the Transportation Industries. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard Univ. Press. Morton, A.L., (1972). "Intermodal Competition for Intercity Transport of Manufactures," Land Economics. Vol. 48 No. 4 (November), 357-366. Myrdal, G., (1957). Economic Theory and Under Developed Regions. London: G. Duckworth & Co. Ltd. North, R.N. (1968). Transport and Economic Development in Western  Siberia. Ph.D. Thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver. North, R.N., (1972). "Soviet Northern Development: The Case of N.W. Siberia," Soviet Studies. Vol. 24, No. 2, (October), 171-199. Perloff, H.N. et. al. (1960). Regions. Resources and Economic Growth. Resources for the Future, Inc. Washington, D.C. Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press. Perroux, F., (1970). "Notes on the Concept of 'Growth Poles', in Regional Economics," in Regional Economics: Theory and Practice. ed. by D.L. McKee et. al. New York: The Free Press. Policies and Priorities — A Perspective for the Industrial Development of  British Columbia. (1969). Vancouver: Employers' Council of B.C. Quandt, R.E., (1960). "Models of Transportation and Optimal Network Construction," lournal of Regional Science. Vol. 2, 37-45. Ramsey, B., (1962). P.G.E. Railway to the North. Vancouver: Mitchell Press. Richter, J.]., (1964). "The Developing Pattern of B.C. Agriculture," Inventory of the Natural Resources of British Columbia. Victoria, B.C., 151-166. Rimmer, P.J., (1971). Transport in Thailand. Canberra: Australian National University. Sampson, R.J. (1961). Railroad Shipments and Rates from The Pacific  Northwest. Bureau of Business Research Eugene University of Oregon. Sampson, R.J., (1963). Railroad Shipments and Rates Into the Pacific Northwest. Bureau of Business Research. Eugene: University of Oregon. Scott, A.J., (1971). An Introduction to Spatial Allocation Analysis. Commission on College Geography, Resource Paper, No. 9, A.A.A.G., Washington. Smith, R.H.T., (1963). "Transport Competition in Australian Border Areas: The Example of Southern New South Wales," Economic Geography. Vol. 39, No. 1 (January), 1-13. Wilson, G.E., (1962). Essays on Some Unsettled Questions in the  Economics of Transportation. Bloomington Graduate School of Business, Indiana University. Wilson, G.E., (1966). The Impact of Highway Investment on Development. Washington: The Brookings Institution. Wilson, G.W. and L. Darby, (1968). Transportation on the Prairies. Supporting Study No. 2 for the Royal Commission on Consumer Problems and Inflation. Regina: The Queen's Printer. - 156-APPENDIX One of the sources of data used in this thesis was a question-naire sent to 50 companies in the Peace River and Prince George-Quesnel regions. The questionnaire was sent out in July 1973 to companies that had established in these regions within the last 20 years. The aim of the questionnaire was to determine the importance of transportation modes to the companies and to obtain data on comparative costs of the different modes for supplying similar services. The 50 companies represented 12 industrial categories. The breakdown by industry was: wood products — 15 electrical products — non-metallic products — 10 metal fabricating — trade — 5 paper and allied industries — 5 transportation — 2 food and beverages — 3 chemicals & chemical prod. — 3 agricultural industry — 3 other industries — 3 and mining — 1 Twenty seven companies responded to the questionnaire, with the highest percentage of returns coming from companies in the pulp and paper industries and the agricultural industry. The companies were asked when and why they established in northern B.C. Then there was a series of questions designed to determine how important transportation was to their operation. These questions were: 1) Which mode of transportation was used to bring raw materials to the plant? 2) Which characteristics (attributes) of that mode were most important? - 157 — 3) How far were the inputs moved? 4) Could another mode have been used (and if so how much more would this have cost)? 5) What were the locations of and distances to the markets for the products? 6) Which mode was used to ship the products to market? 7) Could there have been substitution of modes when shipping products to market (and if so what would the difference of cost have been)? 8) Finally the companies were asked to comment on how important transportation was to their particular firm, using whatever criteria they felt was pertinent. Almost all companies that answered the questionnaire, answered it in full. While most companies used only one mode, they were aware of the costs of the alternative mode. Most companies felt that transportation was fairly important to them as they were on the periphery of markets and supply areas, but few companies could or would say what percent transport costs represented of total costs. The results of the questionnaire are more fully discussed in Chapter 5. 

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