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A study of alternative policies to reduce traffic congestion in Seoul Park, Jong Hum 1994

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A STUDY OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES TO REDUCE TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN SEOUL by JONG HUM PARK B.Econ., The Seoul N a t i o n a l U n i v e r s i t y , 1981 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Fa c u l t y of Commerce and Business A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ) We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH. COLUMBIA December 1994 (6) Jong Hum Park, 1994 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada Date M **> , 'W DE-6 (2/88) ABSTRACT L i k e most b i g c i t i e s i n the w o r l d , t r a f f i c c o n g e s t i o n i s one o f the most s e r i o u s urban problems i n S e o u l . The magnitude of c o n g e s t i o n c o s t s i n Seoul i s much g r e a t e r than most people r e a l i z e ; they are e s t i m a t e d to be more than t w e n t y - e i g h t b i l l i o n won ( U . S . $ 35 m i l l i o n ) per day. T h e r e f o r e , i n t h i s t h e s i s , a number o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n demand management (TDM) measures are reviewed and a s s e s s e d . B r o a d l y , two c a t e g o r i e s of TDM measures are c o n s i d e r e d : " C a r r o t " TDM measures and " S t i c k " TDM measures. " C a r r o t " TDM measures i n c l u d e p r e f e r e n t i a l treatment of h i g h occupancy v e h i c l e s (HOVs) , improvement o f t r a n s i t systems, i n t r o d u c t i o n o f p a r a - t r a n s i t , encouragement o f r i d e s h a r i n g , and v a r i a b l e work h o u r s . " S t i c k " TDM measures i n c l u d e p a r k i n g supply c o n t r o l s , t r a f f i c zone systems, odd and even days r u l e , road use permi t systems, t a x a t i o n of c a r s , f u e l t a x e s , p a r k i n g c h a r g e s , and c h a r g i n g f o r road usage . The performance o f each measure i s assessed a g a i n s t a se t o f c r i t e r i a : e f f i c i e n c y , e q u i t y , f e a s i b i l i t y , e n v i r o n m e n t a l e f f e c t and f l e x i b i l i t y . As a r e s u l t of the assessment , a l i s t o f p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r Seoul i s proposed: p r e f e r e n t i a l t rea tment f o r HOVs, f u e l tax i n c r e a s e s , improvement of t r a n s i t system, and c h a r g i n g f o r road usage as major p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , and i n t r o d u c t i o n of p a r a - t r a n s i t , p a r k i n g c h a r g e s , and c o n t r o l o f p a r k i n g supp ly as supplementary p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT u TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENT x CH.1 INTRODUCTION 1. BACKGROUND 1 2. PURPOSE 2 3. METHOD 3 CH.2 TRAFFIC SITUATION AND PROBLEMS IN SEOUL 1. CITY CHARACTERISTICS .' 5 1.1 Socio-economic Concentration 5 1.2 Population 5 2. TRAFFIC SITUATION 6 2.1 Car Ownership 6 2.2 T r i p s 7 2.3 Travel Speed 9 2.4 Road Network 9 2.5 Mass T r a n s i t Systems 10 3. TRAFFIC SITUATION IN THE FUTURE 12 CH.3 CONGESTION COSTS IN SEOUL 1. INTRODUCTION 15 — i n — 2. TRAFFIC CONGESTION CRITERIA 15 2.1 Volume-Capacity R a t i o 16 2.2 Levels of Service. 17 2.3 T r a f f i c Speed 19 2.4 Conclusion. 19 3,.. COMPONENTS OF CONGESTION COSTS 20 3.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n . . 20 3.2 V e h i c l e Operating Costs 20 3.2.1 Fuel costs 21 3.2.2 O i l and t i r e costs .. 22 3.2.3 Repair and maintenance costs 23 3.3 Travel Time Costs 23 3.3.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 23 3.3.2 Time value of business t r i p s 24 3.3.3 Time value of non-business t r i p s . . . 26 4. ESTIMATION OF CONGESTION COSTS IN SEOUL 27 4.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 27 4.2 V e h i c l e Operating Costs 30 4.3 Travel Time Costs 31 4.4 T o t a l Congestion Costs 32 5. Conclusions ; 32 CH.4 DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVES TO REDUCE TRAFFIC CONGESTION 1. DEFINITION OF TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT (TDM) 35 2. CATEGORIES OF TDM MEASURES 35 3. "CARROT" TDM MEASURES 38 —iv— 3.1 P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment f o r HOVs 38 3.2 Improvement of T r a n s i t systems 40 3.3 I n t r o d u c t i o n of Para T r a n s i t 42 3.4 Encourgement of Ridesharing 45 3.5 V a r i a b l e Work Hours.. 48 4. "STICK" TDM MEASURES 50 4.1 P h y s i c a l R e s t r a i n t s 50 4.1.1 Parking Supply Controls 51 4.1.2 T r a f f i c Zone Systems 53 4.2 Regulatory R e s t r a i n t s 55 4.2.1 Odd and Even Days Rule 55 4.2.2 Road Use Permit System........ 58 4.3 Use of P r i c i n g System 59 4.3.1 Taxation of Cars 61 4.3.2 Fuel Tax 63 4.3.3 Parking Charges 66 4.3.4 Charging f o r Road Usage 68 CH.5 ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVES FOR SEOUL 1. INTRODUCTION 75 2. APPLICATION OF ALTERNATIVES TO SEOUL. 75 2.1 "Carrot" TDM Measures ... 75 2.1.1 P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment f o r HOVs ... 75 2.1.2 Improvement of T r a n s i t systems 77 2.1.3 I n t r o d u c t i o n of Para T r a n s i t 79 2.1.4 Encourgement of Ridesharing 80 2.1.5 V a r i a b l e Work Hours 80 2.2 " S t i c k " TDM Measures 81 2.2.1 P h y s i c a l R e s t r a i n t s 81 2.2.1.1 Parking Supply Controls 81 2.2.1.2 T r a f f i c Zone Systems 82 2.2.2 Regulatory R e s t r a i n t s 83 2.2.2.1 Odd and Even Days Rule 83 2.2.2.2 Road Use Permit System 84 2.2.3 Use of P r i c i n g System 85 2.2.3.1 Taxation of Cars 85 2.2.3.2 Fuel Tax . 88 2.2.3.3 Parking Charges 89 2.2.3.4 Charging f o r Road Usage 90 3. ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVES FOR SEOUL 91 3.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n 91 3.2 Assessment C r i t e r i a 92 3.2.1 E f f i c i e n c y 92 3.2.2 Equity 93 3.2.3 F e a s i b i l i t y 94 3.2.4 Environmental E f f e c t 95 3.2.5 F l e x i b i l i t y 96 3.3 Summary of the Assessment 97 3.4 S e l e c t i o n of Appropriate A l t e r n a t i v e s 99 CH.6 SUMMARY, POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 101 REFERENCES 104 —vi— LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: Population Growth. 6 Table 2-2: Car Ownership Trends i n Seoul 7 Table 2-3: Travel Volume by Purpose, D a i l y 8 Table 2-4: Travel Volume by Mode, D a i l y 8 Table 2-5: T r a v e l Speed 9 Table 2-6: Bus Company S t a t i s t i c s 11 Table 2-7: T r a f f i c S i t u a t i o n i n the Future 13 Table 3-1: A r t e r i a l Levels of Service 19 Table 3-2: Fuel Consumption at Various Speeds 21 Table 3-3: T i r e Wear 22 Table 3-4: Time Value of Business T r i p s 25 Table 3-5: Studies on Time Value of Commuting T r i p s 26 Table 3-6: Average D a i l y Travel Distance 28 Table 3-7: Average Occupancy 28 Table 3-8: R a t i o of Business T r i p s and Non-Business T r i p s 29 Table 3-9: T r a f f i c Concentration Rate 29 Table 3-10: T r a f f i c Concentration Rate During Congstion P e r i o d . 30 Table 3-11: Fuel Costs 31 Table 3-12: T r a v e l Time Costs.... 31 Table 3-13: T o t a l Congestion Costs 32 Table 4-1: Categories of TDM Measures 37 Table 4-2: Monthly Commute Costs 47 Table 4-3: R e l a t i o n s h i p s between Road P r i c i n g O b j e c t i v e s and —vii— Type of Scheme 70 Table 5-1: HOV P r i o r i t y Lanes i n Seoul 76 Table 5-2: Rapid R a i l T r a n s i t i n Seoul . ... 77 Table 5-3: S t a t i s t i c s of Parking F a c i l i t i e s i n Seoul 81 Table 5-4: Car Tax System 86 Table 5-5: An I n t e r n a t i o n a l Comparison of A u t o - r e l a t e d Taxes 87 Table 5-6: Automobile Ownership Rates .. 87 Table 5-7: I n t e r n a t i o n a l Comparison of Fuel Tax 88 Table 5-8: Result of E v a l u a t i o n 98 Table 5-9: Selected L i s t of A l t e r n a t i v e s ...100 — V M — LIST OF FIGURES gure 4-1: Optimal P r i c i n g Levels ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would l i k e t o express my deep g r a t i t u d e to Pr o f e s s o r Tae H. Oum f o r h i s advice and c o n s i d e r a t i o n throughout a l l the stage of t h i s t h e s i s . I a l s o extend thanks to Prof e s s o r W.G.Waters and Gerry Brown f o r t h e i r h e l p f u l comments as supervisory committee members. I am g r a t e f u l to my wife, Chung Ah, f o r her support and s a c r i f i c e d uring t h i s research. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1. BACKGROUND Li k e most r e s i d e n t s of urban areas, c i t i z e n s of Seoul have been experiencing growing t r a f f i c congestion every day. Since the 1960s, the per c a p i t a income of Korea has s t e a d i l y increased along with high population growth. As income increased, the number of motor v e h i c l e s i n Seoul increased to more than 1.37 m i l l i o n by the end of 1991. The number of motor v e h i c l e s has grown annually at a r a t e of more than twenty-three percent since the mid-1980s. Motor v e h i c l e s are i n great demand and have exceeded the c a p a c i t y of e x i s t i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , thereby causing s e r i o u s t r a f f i c congestion. From the viewpoint of people who experience i t , t r a f f i c congestion i s exasperating because of the time l o s t s i t t i n g i n t r a f f i c jams and the f r u s t r a t i o n of crawling along i n s t e a d of moving at normal d r i v i n g speeds. From the viewpoint of s o c i e t y as a whole, t r a f f i c congestion i s undesirable because i t m i s a l l o c a t e s scarce resources and causes economic i n e f f i c i e n c y (Downs, 1992). Congestion can be t a c k l e d by e i t h e r supply-side or demand-side s t r a t e g i e s . The supply-side s t r a t e g i e s attempt to improve t r a f f i c c o n d i t i o n s by i n c r e a s i n g the c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y of the - 1 -transportation system. These encompass t a c t i c s such as the construction or expansion of urban roads, and of mass t r a n s i t systems. The demand-side strategies attempt to reduce the number or duration of vehicle movements during peak hours. These involve t a c t i c s such as high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, ridesharing and improved t r a n s i t services. It i s unlikely, however, that road capacity w i l l be able to keep pace with the rapid growth i n tr a v e l demand r e s u l t i n g from increases i n population and vehicle ownership. Thus i t may be that some forms of t r a f f i c demand management w i l l be necessary to c u r t a i l congestion. 2. PURPOSE The t r a d i t i o n a l approach to urban transportation problems focused on supply-side strategies. This approach has been larg e l y unsuccessful. Today's urban transportation problems have arisen despite large annual expenditures on urban transportation systems. C i t i e s i n developing countries often devote f i f t e e n to twenty-five percent of t h e i r annual expenditures to t h e i r transport systems, and sometimes much more (World Bank, 1986). The overwhelming nature of the urban transportation problem has sometimes tempted governments to try to solve i t by spending vast amounts of money on subways and highway infrastructure. These c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e projects have not always been co s t - e f f e c t i v e . Thus, transportation demand management (TDM) measures have been highlighted to a l l e v i a t e - 2 -the e f f e c t s of t r a v e l demand growth on t r a f f i c congestion and road i n f r a s t r u c t u r e requirements. The purpose of t h i s study i s to i d e n t i f y s u i t a b l e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s to reduce t r a f f i c congestion i n Seoul, Korea. This study w i l l draw up a short l i s t of s u i t a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s to c o n s t r a i n the r a p i d l y growing automobile t r a f f i c e f f e c t i v e l y . The short l i s t should be subjected to a f u l l e v a l u a t i o n p r i o r to a c t u a l implementation. 3. • METHOD In order to i d e n t i f y s u i t a b l e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r reducing t r a f f i c congestion i n Seoul, the evidence w i l l be s i f t e d through a review of e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e on a c t u a l experience or academic reseach. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the t r a f f i c s i t u a t i o n i n Seoul. Seoul i s one of the most congested c i t i e s i n the world and r e q u i r e s immediate measures to solve i t s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n problems. Chapter 3 estimates the l e v e l of congestion costs i n Seoul. From t h i s we can f i n d some j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t measures and evaluate investment p r o j e c t s designed to r e l i e v e congestion. Moreover, staggering congestion costs can be a warning to v e h i c l e users and p o l i c y developers. - 3 -Chapter 4 reviews the transportation demand management (TDM) measures which are categorized broadly into two types: "carrot" measures and " s t i c k " measures. Details are as follows: 1. Carrot TDM Measures • P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment for HOVs • Improvement of Transit System • Introduction of Para-transit • Encouragement of Ridesharing • Variable Work Hours 2. Stick TDM Measures 1) Physical Restraints • Parking Supply Controls • T r a f f i c Zone Systems 2) Regulatory Restraints • Odd and Even Days Rule • Road Use Permit System 3) Use of Pr i c i n g System • Taxation of Cars • Fuel Tax • Parking Charges • Charging for Road Usage Chapter 5 reviews the application of TDM measures to Seoul and t h e i r expected performance, which w i l l be assessed against a number of c r i t e r i a . The c r i t e r i a are: • E f f i c i e n c y • Equity • F e a s i b i l i t y • Environmental Eff e c t • F l e x i b i l i t y Chapter 6 concludes the thesis with a summary of evaluation and pol i c y recommendations i n the short and long term. - 4 -CHAPTER 2 TRAFFIC CONDITIONS AND PROBLEMS IN SEOUL 1. CITY CHARACTERISTICS 1.1 Socio-economic Concentration The urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s i t u a t i o n i n Seoul i s of c r i t i c a l importance f o r a l l of Korea. Although the area of Seoul (636 square kil o m e t r e s ) comprises only 0.63 percent of the land mass of the whole n a t i o n , i t contains major tra n s p o r t f a c i l i t i e s such as the i n t e r n a t i o n a l a i r p o r t and the underground, and twenty-five percent of the employees. T r a d i t i o n a l l y , Korea c u l t i v a t e d a s t r i c t l y h i e r a r c h i c a l p o l i t i c a l system i n which the c e n t r a l government i n the c a p i t a l e x e r c i s e d enormous i n f l u e n c e on the whole n a t i o n ; most d e c i s i o n s have been made i n the c a p i t a l c i t y . Such an i n h e r i t e d p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e has a c c e l e r a t e d the r a p i d urban growth and economic concentration i n Seoul. As a r e s u l t , the serious t r a f f i c congestion i n Seoul may have s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s on the e n t i r e n a t i o n a l economy and may s t i f l e e f f o r t s to r a i s e the l e v e l of n a t i o n a l economic development. 1.2 P o p u l a t i o n The p o p u l a t i o n of Seoul reached 10.6 m i l l i o n at the end of 1990. Even though the growth rate of the Seoul population has been higher than, that of the whole n a t i o n , i t has been decreasing i n recent - 5 -years from a 2.46 percent annual growth rate between 1981 and 1986 to 2.05 percent between 1986 and 1990. Table 2-1: Population Growth Annual Growth Rate (%) '81-'86 '86-'90 2.46 2.05 1.24 0.96 * Source: Seoul Development I n s t i t u t e (1993a) 2. TRAFFIC SITUATION 2.1 Car Ownership Car ownership has increased by 21.4 percent per annum f o r the l a s t f i v e years. This i s due to an increase of income l e v e l , changes i n l i v i n g patterns and growth i n population. At the end of 1991, the t o t a l v e h i c l e r e g i s t r a t i o n of Seoul was 1,374 thousand, seventy-one percent being p r i v a t e passenger c a r s , as shown i n Table 2-2. Population (1,000) Year 1981 1986 1990 Seoul 8,676 9,799 10,628 Nation 38,723 41,184 42,793 - 6 -Table 2-2: Car Ownership Trends i n Seoul Annual Growth Rate (%) D e s c r i p t i o n '81 '86 '91 '81-'86 '86-'91 Passenger Car 111.1 708.6 977.1 22.7 25.9 Taxi 29.3 42.3 58.8 7.6 6.8 Bus 14.8 52.2 108.4 28.2 15.7 Truck 66.5 117.8 230.4 12.1 14.4 T o t a l 221.6 520.8 1,374.7 18.6 21.4 * Source: Seoul Development I n s t i t u t e (1993a) I t i s notable that the number of v e h i c l e s i n Seoul i s equal to 29.3 percent of the t o t a l employees and accounts f o r 32.4 percent of a l l v e h i c l e s i n the country. 2.2 T r i p s D a i l y t o t a l t r i p s by purpose i n Seoul have increased annually by 3.8 percent between 1989 and 1991, which i s double the growth r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n . As shown i n Table 2-3, the l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of t r i p s i n v o l v e r e t u r n i n g home. One i n t e r e s t i n g f a c t i s that the annual growth r a t e of c e r t a i n purposes f o r t r i p s has increased more r a p i d l y than those f o r other t r i p s . I t seems to be the r e s u l t of more d i v e r s i f i e d l i v i n g p a t t e r ns. - 7 -Table 2-3: Tr i p s by Purpose, D a i l y Purpose '89 '91 T r i p Share T r i p Share Annual (1,000) (%) (1,000) (%) Growth Rate (%) Home to School 2,785 13.6 3,006 13.6 3.9 Home to Work 3,424 16.7 3,690 16.8 3.8 Returning Home 8,584 41.9 9,170 41.5 3.4 Business 2,468 12.0 2,641 11.9 3.4 Other 3,250 15.8 3,590 16.2 5.1 T o t a l 20,519 100.0 22,097 100.0 3.8 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1992) D a i l y t o t a l t r i p s by mode have grown but s h i f t e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y between 1986 and 1991. An increase i n t r i p s by subway/railway was dominant between 1889 and 1991, whereas between 1986 and 1989 the number of car t r i p s increased r a p i d l y (see Table 2-4). I t means that as the subway/railway system expanded, a l o t of people changed t h e i r t r a v e l mode from bus to subway/railway. The r a t i o of bus t r i p s to t o t a l t r i p s decreased annually by 6.4 percent between 1989 and 1991. Table 2-4: Tri p s by Mode, D a i l y Mode 1986 1989 1991 Annual T r i p Share T r i p Share T r i p Share Growth (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) Rate (%) '86-'89 '89-'91 Car 3 ,494 18 . 5 5 ,672 24 . 3 6 ,003 24 .7 17 5 2 .9 Bus 8,978 50 . 1 11 ,551 48 . 5 10 ,118 41 .7 8 8 -6 .4 S/R 2 ,330 13 . 0 3 ,069 13 . 1 5 ,082 29 .9 9 6 28 .7 Taxi 3,118 17 . 4 3 ,063 13 . 1 3 ,078 12 .7 -0 6 0 .2 Tot. 17 ,920 100 . 0 23 ,354 100. 0 24 ,281 i o o .0 9 1 2 .0 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1990a & 1992) - 8 -2.3 Travel Speed The average t r a v e l speed i n Seoul decreased by twenty-eight percent from 32.55 km/h i n 1989 to 23.58 km/h i n 1991 (see Table 2-5). An exception i s i n the case of the C e n t r a l Business D i s t r i c t road where there was no s i g n i f i c a n t change i n t r a v e l speed between 1989 and 1991. This means that the road congestion i n the CBD i s so severe that enough delay was generated to c o n s t i t u t e a deterrent to the growth of t r a f f i c . On o u t s k i r t roads the t r a v e l speed decreased by 32.1 percent. I t shows that t r a f f i c congestion was g e t t i n g worse i n a l l urban areas. Table 2-5: Travel Speed i n Seoul D e s c r i p t i o n 1989 1991 % Change Average 32.55 23.58 -28.0 CBD 18.69 18.56 -0.7 O u t s k i r t 37.17 25.25 -32.1 Urban Expressway 49.30 32.02 -17.0 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1992) 2.4 Road Network The road network i n Seoul i s e s s e n t i a l l y r a d i a l , converging to the c e n t r a l area of Seoul. There are few o r b i t a l routes or r i n g roads. Most t r i p s force d r i v e r s to pass through or c l o s e to the CBD. Such a s i t u a t i o n , combined with the r a p i d growth i n t r a f f i c demand, has l e d to the t r a n s p o r t system being unable to meet demand adequately. - 9 -As f o r the supply of roads, i t increased by 3.3 percent annually from 4,651 km to 5,471 km between 1966 and 1971; by 2.0 percent from 5,471 km to 6,689 km between 1971 and 1981; and by 1.1 percent from 6,689 km to 7,425 km between 1981 and 1991 (Seoul Development I n s t i t u t e , 1993b). The r a t e of the supply of road capacity has been decreasing year by year due to the high cost of a c q u i r i n g lands and the l a c k of a v a i l a b l e lands. In a d d i t i o n to t r a f f i c congestion, the overburdened road network has made t r a f f i c accidents one of the major causes of death and i n j u r y i n Seoul. 2.5 Mass Transit Systems More than s i x t y percent of the d a i l y t r i p s i n Seoul are c a r r i e d out by mass t r a n s i t systems, mainly the bus and subway systems. The current s t r u c t u r e of the bus i n d u s t r y i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a l a r g e number of s m a l l - to medium-sized independent companies. In c o n t r a s t to bus operations i n most c i t i e s of the world, bus s e r v i c e s i n Seoul are provided by e i g h t y - n i n e p r i v a t e companies with f l e e t s i z e s averaging n i n e t y - e i g h t buses. S p e c i f i c routes are l i c e n s e d to i n d i v i d u a l operators. There are 423 separate routes i n Seoul (see Table 2-6). The i m p l i c a t i o n of t h i s i s that there i s a s u b s t a n t i a l o v e rlap - 10 -between companies on sections of routes, and th e r e f o r e there are i n c e n t i v e s f o r companies to operate e f f i c i e n t l y to r e t a i n market share. Table 2-6: Bus Company S t a t i s t i c s Number of Number of Number of Average Number of Companies Employees Buses Company Si z e Routes 89 25,413 8,734 98 423 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1993b) Increased congestion i n Seoul has reduced the operating frequencies per bus per day from 7.5 i n 1988 to 6.3 i n 1992 (Seoul Development I n s t i t u t e , 1993a), and hence the f i n a n c i a l performance of bus companies has d e t e r i o r a t e d . No d i r e c t s u b s i d i e s , however, are given to bus operators, and some companies have gone bankrupt as a r e s u l t of poor revenues. Since subway c o n s t r u c t i o n s t a r t e d i n 1971, the Seoul subway system has grown to a t o t a l of 188 kil o m e t r e s . In a d d i t i o n , about 100 kilom e t r e s of subways are c u r r e n t l y under c o n s t r u c t i o n . There i s no doubt that the subways have had a s u b s t a n t i a l impact. The s h i f t from road-based modes of tr a n s p o r t to subways has helped s t a b i l i z e the l e v e l of road congestion i n the CBD de s p i t e s t i l l r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g car ownership. However, the c i t y government has had to pay massive c o n s t r u c t i o n costs amounting to about two t r i l l i o n won i n t o t a l , and t h i s accounts f o r f o r t y percent of the annual c i t y expenditures on average. Although the c e n t r a l - 11 -government s u b s i d i z e d more than t h i r t y - f i v e percent of the c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s , nearly t h i r t y - t h r e e percent had to be financed by f o r e i g n or commercial loans. As a r e s u l t , the massive loans f o r the c o n s t r u c t i o n , i n combination with high operating c o s t s , caused an excessive burden on the c i t y budget. Some c i t y planners advocate the subway as the best s o l u t i o n f o r overcoming the severe t r a f f i c congestion. However, there remain a number of s e r i o u s problems concerning the planning and f i n a n c i n g of subways. I t i s necessary to compare the costs and b e n e f i t s of subways with a l t e r n a t i v e investments, i n c l u d i n g l i g h t r a i l t r a n s i t and bus systems. 3. TRAFFIC SITUATION IN THE FUTURE Although the rat e of growth i s decreasing, i t i s s t i l l f o r e c a s t e d that the population i n Seoul w i l l continue to increase i n the fu t u r e . According to the urban plan of Seoul, the pop u l a t i o n of Seoul i s pr o j e c t e d to be 11.2 m i l l i o n i n 1996 and 12.0 m i l l i o n i n 2001. The number of v e h i c l e s to be r e g i s t e r e d i n 1996 i s estimated to be 2,371 thousand, and i n 2001, 3,161 thousand. These estimations are made under the assumption that the current trends regarding the cost of car ownership and operation continue. D a i l y t o t a l t r i p s by purpose are estimated to reach 23,834 thousand t r i p s i n 1996 and 24,890 thousand t r i p s i n 2001. T r i p s from home - 1 2 -to work and re t u r n t r i p s home are estimated to reach 4,270 thousand and 10,564 thousand i n 2001, r e s p e c t i v e l y , and w i l l cause f u r t h e r exacerbation of peak hour congestion. D a i l y t o t a l t r i p s by mode w i l l i ncrease to 27,754 thousand t r i p s i n 1996 and 30,020 thousand t r i p s i n 2001, r e s p e c t i v e l y . The number of bus t r i p s , which accounted f o r the l a r g e s t number of t r i p s i n 1991, i s estimated to decrease by 19.9 percent from 41.7 percent i n 1991 to 21.8 percent i n 2001, while the numbeer of subway/rail t r i p s i s expected to increase by 28.5 percent from 20.9 percent i n 1991 to 49.4 percent i n 2001 (see Table 2-7). Table 2-7: T r a f f i c S i t u a t i o n i n the Future u n i t : thousand 1991 Po p u l a t i o n 10,580 No. of V e h i c l e s 1,375 Tr i p s by Purpose 22,097 (D a i l y ) Home to School 3,006 Home to Work 3,690 Returning Home 9,170 Business 2,641 Other 3,590 T r i p s by Mode 24,280 (Daily ) Car 6,002 Bus 10,118 Subway/Rail 5,082 Taxi 3,078 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1993a), Seoul Development I n s t i t u t e (1993a) 1996 2001 11,267 12,000 2,371 3,161 23,834 24,890 2,884 4,044 9,922 3,101 3,883 2,817 4,270 10,564 3,175 4,064 27,754 30,020 6,029 8,014 10,976 2,734 6,273 6,534 14,824 2,389 - 1 3 -As a r e s u l t of such an increase i n t o t a l t r i p demand, t r a f f i c congestion i s expected to be a problem a f f e c t i n g the whole c i t y f o r most hours of the day. - 1 4 -CHAPTER 3 CONGESTION COSTS IN SEOUL 1. INTRODUCTION Formal estimates confirm that the cost of congestion i s high. The Texas Tr a n s p o r t a t i o n I n s t i t u t e estimated t h a t , i n j u s t t h i r t y - n i n e l a r g e urban areas of the United States, the cost of congestion i n 1988 alone exceeded $34 b i l l i o n , or $290 per r e s i d e n t . Time l o s t from delays (at $8.80 an hour) accounted f o r s i x t y - f i v e percent of that amount (Downs, 1992). Throughout the European Community as a whole, i t has r e c e n t l y been estimated that the t o t a l economic l o s s through urban and i n t e r u r b a n congestion and detours amounts to 500 b i l l i o n European Currency U n i t s (ECU) per year (Jones and Hervik, 1992). By computing the cost of congestion, we can f i n d some j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t measures and evaluate investment p r o j e c t s designed to a f f o r d r e l i e f from congestion. 2. TRAFFIC CONGESTION CRITERIA In order to compute congestion c o s t s , we should define the concept of t r a f f i c congestion. What i s t r a f f i c congestion? T r a f f i c congestion may be c h a r a c t e r i z e d i n three ways: By the volume-capacity r a t i o , the l e v e l of s e r v i c e , and t r a f f i c speed. - 1 5 -These three categories e x p l a i n the same phenomena i n d i f f e r e n t ways and are i n t e r r e l a t e d . I f volume-capacity r a t i o s i n c r e a s e , then l e v e l s of s e r v i c e get worse and t r a f f i c speeds decrease. These concepts w i l l be explained i n more d e t a i l i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s . 2. 1 Volume-Capacity Ratio The volume or flow i s defined as the number of v e h i c l e s passing a given point per u n i t time, whereas capacity i s defined i n terms of the maximum r a t e of flow per u n i t time at which v e h i c l e s can reasonably be expected to tra v e r s e a point according to p r e v a i l i n g roadway, t r a f f i c and c o n t r o l c o n d i t i o n s (Transportation Research Board, 1985). I f we define c a p a c i t y i n t h i s way, the volume-capacity r a t i o cannot exceed one (In c o n t r a s t , some engineers i d e n t i f y c a p a c i t y as "design c a p a c i t y " , which allows a design l e v e l of s e r v i c e , i . e . "c". With t h i s d e f i n i t i o n , the volume-capacity r a t i o may exceed one) . Even i f we can define the volume-capacity r a t i o as a maximum of u n i t y , there are s t i l l some d i f f i c u l t i e s i n d e f i n i n g t r a f f i c congestion. At which p r e c i s e l e v e l of volume-capacity r a t i o should we regard a road as congested? I t i s q u i t e s u b j e c t i v e . A Japanese t r a n s p o r t a t i o n engineering study group concluded that the v/c r a t i o of 0.80 on urban roads i s the c r i t e r i o n f o r congestion (Korea - 1 6 -Transport I n s t i t u t e , 1992). 2.2 Levels of Service The concept of l e v e l s of s e r v i c e i s defined as a q u a l i t a t i v e measure d e s c r i b i n g o p e r a t i o n a l c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n a t r a f f i c stream, and t h e i r perception by motorists and/or passengers. A l e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e d e f i n i t i o n g e n e r a l l y describes these c o n d i t i o n s i n terms of such f a c t o r s as speed and t r a v e l time, freedom to manoeuvre, t r a f f i c i n t e r r u p t i o n s , comfort and convenience, and s a f e t y (Transportation Research Board, 1985). The concept of l e v e l s of s e r v i c e was f i r s t used i n the Highway Capacity Manual i n 1965. S i x l e v e l s of s e r v i c e are defined f o r each type of f a c i l i t y . They are given l e t t e r d e s i g n a t i o n s , from A to F, with l e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e A representing the best o p e r a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s , and l e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e F the worst. The various l e v e l s of s e r v i c e are defined as f o l l o w s f o r uninterrupted flow f a c i l i t i e s ( T r ansportation Research Board, 1985). L e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e A represents f r e e flow: unaffected by the presence of others, freedom to s e l e c t d e s i r e d speeds and to manoeuvre i n e x c e l l e n t comfort and convenience. L e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e B i s i n the range of s t a b l e flow: a s l i g h t d e c l i n e i n the freedom to manoeuvre from LOS A, l e s s comfort and convenience than at LOS A, and so f o r t h . L e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e C i s i n the range of s t a b l e flow: - 1 7 -s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t e d i n t e r a c t i o n s with o t h e r s , s e l e c t i o n of speed a f f e c t e d by the presence of othe r s , maneouvering requires s u b s t a n t i a l v i g i l a n c e , and n o t i c e a b l y d e c l i n e d comfort and convenience. L e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e D represents h i g h - d e n s i t y , but s t a b l e , flow: severely r e s t r i c t e d speed and freedom to manoeuvre, poor comfort and convenience, and small increases i n t r a f f i c flow cause o p e r a t i o n a l problems. L e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e E represents operating c o n d i t i o n s at or near the c a p a c i t y l e v e l : low speed, extremely d i f f i c u l t to manoeuvre, extremely poor comfort and convenience, high f r u s t r a t i o n of d r i v e r or p e d e s t r i a n , small increases i n flow cause breakdowns. L e v e l - o f - s e r v i c e F i s used to define forced or breakdown flow: stop-and-go waves, t r a f f i c amount exceeds the amount which can t r a v e r s e a p o i n t . These d e f i n i t i o n s are general and conceptual i n nature. For each type of f a c i l i t y , l e v e l s of s e r v i c e are defined based on one or more o p e r a t i o n a l parameters which best describes the operating q u a l i t y f o r the subject f a c i l i t y type. The parameters are c a l l e d "measures of e f f e c t i v e n e s s . " For the urban a r t e r i a l l e v e l of s e r v i c e , the Transp o r t a t i o n Research Board (1985) adopted the average t r a v e l speed as the measure of e f f e c t i v e n e s s . Table 3-1 shows the a r t e r i a l l e v e l s of s e r v i c e . - 1 8 -Table 3-1: A r t e r i a l Levels of Service Range of Free Flow Speeds (km/h) 56-72 Leve l of Service Average Travel Speed (km/h) A B C D E F >= 56 >= 45 >= 35 >= 27 >= 21 < 21 * Source: Transportation Research Board (1985) Therefore, i n the case of urban a r t e r i a l s , l e v e l of s e r v i c e c r i t e r i a c o i n c i d e with t r a f f i c speed c r i t e r i a i n determining the t r a f f i c congestion c r i t e r i a . The problem i s determining what l e v e l of s e r v i c e i s proper f o r congestion c r i t e r i a . Considering the d e f i n i t i o n of each l e v e l of s e r v i c e and the bad road c o n d i t i o n s i n Seoul, we chose the l e v e l of s e r v i c e C as the congestion c r i t e r i a . For example, i f a road has a l e v e l of s e r v i c e below C, i t i s congested. 2.3 T r a f f i c Speed As shown i n s e c t i o n 2.2, t r a f f i c speed c r i t e r i a c o i n c i d e s with l e v e l of s e r v i c e c r i t e r i a . Thus, congestion c r i t e r i o n speed i s 35 km/h, which i s about f i f t y percent of the free flow speed. 2.4 Conclusion Congestion c r i t e r i o n speed plays a c r i t i c a l r o l e i n e s t i m a t i n g - 1 9 -congestion c o s t s . The v a r i a t i o n s of the estimated congestion costs depend l a r g e l y on the congestion c r i t e r i o n speed. By reviewing three categories of congestion c r i t e r i a -- volume-capacity r a t i o , l e v e l s of s e r v i c e and t r a v e l speed -- we concluded that the t r a v e l speed of 35 km/h i s the best c r i t e r i o n f o r congestion. 3. COMPONENTS OF CONGESTION COSTS 3. 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n V e h i c l e use i n a congested t r a f f i c network creates costs f o r other users of the network which are not taken i n t o account i n i n d i v i d u a l t r a n s p o r t d e c i s i o n s (Bertrand, 1978). E x t e r n a l costs imposed on the r e s t of s o c i e t y by v e h i c l e s c o n s i s t of road damage c o s t s , congestion c o s t s , accident e x t e r n a l i t i e s , and environmental p o l l u t i o n costs (Newbery, 1988). The congestion f a c t o r s which are taken i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n t h i s chapter are l i m i t e d to higher v e h i c l e operating costs and t r a v e l time delays caused by reduced t r a v e l speeds due to congestion. The reasons we do not concentrate on environmental p o l l u t i o n costs and so on are that they are very d i f f i c u l t to q u a n t i f y and that they are r e l a t i v e l y small (Bertrand, 1978). 3.2 V e h i c l e Operating Costs V e h i c l e operating costs c o n s i s t of f u e l c o s t s , o i l and t i r e c o s t s , r e p a i r and maintenance c o s t s , and d e p r e c i a t i o n r e l a t e d to v e h i c l e use (Bertrand, 1978). In analyzing the v e h i c l e operating c o s t s , we - 2 0 -t r e a t p a r t i c u l a r v e h i c l e s as re p r e s e n t a t i v e of a l l v e h i c l e s w i t h i n the four c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s : (1) passenger cars: 1,500 cc; (2) bus: occupying more than 25 persons; (3) t a x i : same as passenger cars; (4) truck: loading capacity 4.5 - 10.0 ton. 3 . 2 . 1 Fuel Costs Among t o t a l v e h i c l e operating c o s t s , the p o r t i o n of f u e l costs d i f f e r s according to v e h i c l e types and t r a v e l speeds. G e n e r a l l y , a decrease i n t r a v e l speed due to congestion increases f u e l consumption. Therefore, i t i s necessary to e s t a b l i s h the r e l a t i o n s h i p between f u e l consumption and t r a v e l speed and v e h i c l e type. As shown i n Table 3-6, f o r a passenger car, i t i s most economical when d r i v i n g at the speed of 75 km/h where i t consumes 0.051 1/km. A bus consumes 0.168 1/km at the speed of 67 km/h. Table 3-2: Fuel Consumption at Various Speeds u n i t : 1/km V e h i c l e Travel Speed (km/h) Type 25 35 45 55 65 75 P. Car 0.079 0.066 0.059 0.054 0.052 0.051 Bus 0.709 0.230 0.192 0.174 0.168 0.170 Truck 0.309 0.233 0.198 0.184 0.182 0.189 Note: the above f i g u r e s are c a l c u l a t e d from the equations below: Passenger Car: (4.0031 + 0.41167 x S - 0.002741 x S 2 )"' Bus: -0.000062 + 7.539 / S + 0.0000123 x S* Truck: -0.000912 + 7.4865 / S + 0.00001602 x S 2 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1987) Korea Energy I n s t i t u t e (1992) -21 -3. 2. 2 O i l and Tire Costs Consumption of o i l i s a f f e c t e d mainly by engine speed r a t h e r than t r a v e l speed. Thus, i t i s qu i t e d i f f i c u l t to measure o i l consumption at various speeds. Bertrand (1978) assumes that o i l costs are a constant p o r t i o n of f u e l costs by v e h i c l e ; that i s , speed a f f e c t s o i l consumption i n the same way as f u e l consumption. He i n d i c a t e s t h a t , f o r passenger cars , o i l use i n l i t r e s i s 1.6 percent of gasol i n e use; f o r buses, o i l use i n l i t r e s i s 3.53 percent of gasoline use; the percentage f o r heavy tru c k s i s 2.73 percent. With regard to the costs associated with t i r e wear, Bertrand (1978) made the assumption that t i r e wear costs increase i n p r o p o r t i o n to f u e l c o s t s . Research by the Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e showed that t i r e wear i s i n v e r s e l y p r o p o r t i o n a l to t r a v e l speed (see Table 3-7). That i s , as congestion i n c r e a s e s , t i r e wear decreases. Table 3-3: T i r e Wear Unit: % / 1,000 km Ve h i c l e Type Speed 23 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 Passenger Car 4.23 5.56 6.64 7.52 8.21 8.78 9.14 9.37 Bus 1.14 1.56 2.03 2.54 3.12 3.47 4.06 4.76 Truck 1.14 1.56 2.03 2.54 3.12 3.76 4.48 5.33 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1987) O i l cost increases due to congestion might be o f f s e t by t i r e cost decreases. Therefore, i n t h i s study, we do not consider o i l and -22-t i r e costs i n es t i m a t i n g congestion costs. 3 . 2 . 3 Repair and Maintenance Costs The f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g r e p a i r and maintenance costs are t r a v e l speed, road and t r a f f i c c o n d i t i o n s , weather, d r i v i n g s k i l l , and r e l a t e d i s s u e s . We th i n k that the i n f l u e n c e of t r a v e l speed on r e p a i r and maintenance i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l . Moreover, Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1987) showed that r e p a i r and maintenance costs are a l s o i n v e r s e l y p r o p o r t i o n a l to t r a v e l speed. Thus we do not take i n t o account r e p a i r and maintenance costs i n c a l c u l a t i n g congestion costs i n Seoul. 3.3 Travel Time Costs 3 . 3 . 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n Besides v e h i c l e operating c o s t s , congestion increases t r a v e l time c o s t s . In order to estimate the t r a v e l time costs due to congestion, the value of time should be estimated i n advance. Approaches to esti m a t i n g the value of time can be ca t e g o r i z e d broadly i n t o two types: revealed preference and s t a t e d preference. Revealed preference approaches look f o r s i t u a t i o n s where people make choices which i n v o l v e time-money t r a d e - o f f s . The s i t u a t i o n s which have been used i n t h i s approach are choice of mode, route, speed, and l o c a t i o n . Stated preference methods r e l y on people's s t a t e d v a l u a t i o n s of t r a v e l time; f o r example, what people say they w i l l do as being - 2 3 -d i s t i n c t from what they a c t u a l l y do. There i s the obvious r i s k i n using s t a t e d preference methods that people w i l l not take the questions s e r i o u s l y , or w i l l have u l t e r i o r motives f o r the answers they give. Most of the s t u d i e s conducted are based on the revealed preference approach and the s i t u a t i o n s most commonly used i n v o l v e revealed choice of t r a n s p o r t modes or routes. But nowadays more and more stu d i e s are using the s t a t e d preference approach. The main a t t r i b u t e s that a f f e c t the value of time are t r i p purposes and income l e v e l s (these are r e l a t e d to t r i p modes). We d i v i d e d t r i p purposes i n t o two c a t e g o r i e s : business t r i p s and non-business t r i p s . Income l e v e l s are a l s o c a t e g o r i z e d i n t o two groups: high income l e v e l (those using passenger cars or t a x i s ) and average income l e v e l (those using buses or subway/railway). In t h i s study, we estimated the value of t r a v e l time by t r a v e l purposes and income l e v e l s . 3.3.2 Time Value of Business Travel In most of the s t u d i e s conducted to estimate the value of time, the t r i p purpose was commuting (non-business t r i p ) . I t i s q u i t e rare to estimate the time value of business t r a v e l . Dawson and E v e r a l l (1972) showed that the time value of business t r i p s i s about s e v e n t y - f i v e percent of wage r a t e . Waters (1992) recommended that both d r i v e r s and passengers of passenger cars be assigned a value - 2 4 -of 120 percent of wage ra t e . We assumed that the time value of business t r i p s i s one-hundred percent of wage r a t e s . The wage rat e i s c a l c u l a t e d from average income and average work hours of the passengers and d r i v e r of the d i f f e r e n t v e h i c l e types. The wage rate f o r passengers and d r i v e r of passenger cars was c a l c u l a t e d as 6,174 won/hour. I t may be argued that the wage r a t e of the d r i v e r i s d i f f e r e n t from those of the passengers but we cannot f i n d any data or research that d i s t i n g u i s h between them. Moreover, as Waters (1992) recommended the same time value f o r both of them, we assumed that they are i d e n t i c a l . The wage rates of bus, t a x i , and truck d r i v e r s are 4,147 won/hour, 2,877 won/hour and 4,332 won/hour, r e s p e c t i v e l y . For the wage rates of bus passengers, we used the average income of o v e r a l l employees (see Table 3-8). Table 3-4: Time Value of Business T r i p s Average Income Average Work Hours Time Value V e h i c l e Type per Month (won) per Month (hour) (won/hour) Passenger Car d r i v e r & passenger 1,287,380 208.5 6,174 Bus - d r i v e r 970,294 234.0 4,147 - passenger 845,300 208.5 4,054 Taxi - d r i v e r 676,156 235.0 2,877 - passenger 1,287,380 208.5 6,174 Truck - d r i v e r 847,727 195.7 4,332 * Source: Korea P r o d u c t i v i t y Centre (1991a & 1991b), Korea Maritime I n s t i t u t e (1991), Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1990a) - 2 5 -3.3.3 Time Value of Non-Business T r i p s Non-business t r i p s can be d i s t i n g u i s h e d as commuting, shopping and l e i s u r e t r i p s (Waters, 1992). The time values of these t r i p s a l s o d i f f e r by the purpose of the t r i p . However, as the main category of non-business t r i p s are commuters' t r i p s , we assumed that the time value of commuting t r i p s i s re p r e s e n t a t i v e of the time value of non-business t r i p s . Most e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s estimate the value of time f o r commuting t r i p s . The range of the time value i s from twelve percent to eighty-two percent of wage r a t e , as shown i n Table 3-9. Table 3-5: Studies on Time Value of Commuting T r i p s Author Country Beesley, M. (1965) U.K. Quarmley, D. (1967) U.K. Stopher, P. (1968) U.K. Lee & D a l v i (1971) U.K. T a l v i t t i e , A. (1972) U.S.A. McDonald, J. (1975) U.S.A. Guttman, J. (1975) U.S.A. Ghosh, e t . a l . (1975) U.K. Hensher, D. (1977) A u s t r a l i a McFarland & Chui (1985) U.S.A. Hau, T. (1986) U.S.A. Percentage of Wage Rate 33 - 50 20 - 25 21 - 32 40 12 - 14 45 - 78 63 73 39 82 46 * Source: produced from Waters (1992) For t h i s study we concluded that the time value of non-business t r i p s was f i f t y percent of the wage r a t e . And we adopted the average income of o v e r a l l employees as the wage r a t e . Thus the time value of non-business t r i p s i s 2,027 won/hour. - 2 6 -4. ESTIMATION OF CONGESTION COSTS IN SEOUL 4.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n We estimated the congestion costs by comparing the a c t u a l t r a v e l speed with the congestion c r i t e r i a speed. The equation we used i s as f o l l o w s : Congestion Costs per Day = V e h i c l e Operating Costs + T r a v e l Time Costs Sum of(FCAi - FCCi) x F P i X Di x NVi + Sum o f ( D i / FCAi - Di / FCCi) x {(VTBDi + VTBPi x P i ) x B i + (VTNDi + VTNPi x P i ) x Ni} x NVi where: FCAi = f u e l consumption per km by v e h i c l e type " i " at the a c t u a l t r a v e l speed FCCi = f u e l consumption per km by v e h i c l e type " i " at the congestion c r i t e r i a speed F P i = p r i c e of f u e l used by v e h i c l e type " i " Di = average d a i l y t r a v e l d i s t a n c e of v e h i c l e type " i " NVi = number of v e h i c l e type " i " VTBDi = time value of business t r i p f o r d r i v e r i n v e h i c l e type " i " VTBPi = time value of business t r i p f o r passenger i n v e h i c l e type " i " P i = average number of passengers i n v e h i c l e type " i " B i = r a t i o of business t r i p by v e h i c l e type " i " VTNDi = time value of non-business t r i p f o r d r i v e r i n v e h i c l e type " i " - 2 7 -VTNPi = time value of non-business t r i p f o r passenger i n v e h i c l e type " i " N i = r a t i o of non-business t r i p by v e h i c l e type " i " In order to c a l c u l a t e congestion costs using the above equation, we need data on average d a i l y t r a v e l distance by v e h i c l e type, average occupancy, r a t i o of business t r i p s and non-business t r i p s , f u e l p r i c e , and t r a f f i c c o ncentration rate during congestion p e r i o d . Average d a i l y t r a v e l distance i s 63.9 km f o r passenger c a r s , 312.0 km f o r t a x i s , 267.2 km f o r buses, and 212.7 km f o r t r u c k s as shown i n Table 3-10. Table 3-6: Average D a i l y Travel Distance U n i t : km Passenger Car Taxi Bus Truck 63.9 312.0 267.2 212.7 * Source: Transport Safety Promotion A u t h o r i t y (1989), C i t y of Seoul (1990, 1992), Korea P r o d u c t i v i t y Centre (1991). Average occupancy by v e h i c l e type and r a t i o of business t r i p s and non-business t r i p s are shown i n Table 3-11 and Table 3-12, r e s p e c t i v e l y . Table 3-7: Average Occupancy Persons/Vehicle Passenger Car Taxi Bus 1.9 2.32 28.1 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1987) - 2 8 -Table 3-8: Shares of Business T r i p s and Non-Business T r i p s U n i t : % V e h i c l e Type Business T r i p Non-Business T r i p Passenger Car 30.8 69.2 Taxi 21.8 78.2 Bus 6.5 93.5 Truck 72.5 27.5 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1992) Fuel p r i c e s (before tax) i n 1991 were as f o l l o w s : f o r g a s o l i n e , 213.74 won/1, f o r d i e s e l , 128.87 won/1 ( M i n i s t r y of Energy and Resources). For c a l c u l a t i n g t r a f f i c c o ncentration r a t e , we used the average hourly t r a f f i c volume measured by the Seoul Department of P o l i c e . There i s not a great d i f f e r e n c e i n t r a f f i c c o n c e n t r a t i o n r a t e among morning peak, evening peak, and the mid-day pe r i o d (see Table 3-13). Table 3-9: T r a f f i c Concentration Rate D e s c r i p t i o n Morning Peak Evening Peak Mid-Day All-Day T r a f f i c Volume 262,552 251,236 227,626 3,852,840 ( v e h i c l e / h r ) Concentration 6.8 6.5 5.9 100 Rate (%) * Source: Seoul Department of P o l i c e (1990) In t h i s study we assumed the morning peak per i o d to be from 07:30 to 09:00, the mid-day p e r i o d to be from 09:00 to 18:00, and the -29-evening peak pe r i o d to be from 18:00 to 20:00. Thus the t o t a l congestion p e r i o d i s assumed to be from 07:30 to 20:00 (12.5 hours), and the t r a f f i c concentration rate during the congestion p e r i o d i s 76.3 percent (see Table 3-14). Table 3-10: T r a f f i c Concentration Rate During Congestion P e r i o d Morning Peak Mid-Day Evening Peak T o t a l D e s c r i p t i o n (07:30-09:00) (09:00-18:00) (18:00-20:00) Concentration 10.2 53.1 13 76.3 Rate % * Source : Produced from Table 3-13 4.2 V e h i c l e Operating Costs E x t r a f u e l consumption and f u e l costs due to congestion are given i n Table 3-15. The t o t a l d a i l y f u e l l o sses amount to 6,547 thousand l i t r e s . They c o n s i s t of 986 thousand l i t r e s of g a s o l i n e and 5,561 thousand l i t r e s of d i e s e l . Converting these amounts i n t o 1991 current values, the t o t a l f u e l costs amount to 9.7 m i l l i o n won. Fuel costs by v e h i c l e type are shown as amounting to 163 m i l l i o n won f o r passenger cars (17.5%), 273 m i l l i o n won f o r buses (29.5%), 48 m i l l i o n won f o r t a x i s (5.2%), and 443 m i l l i o n won f o r t r u c k s (47.8%) -30-Table 3-11: E x t r a Fuel Costs due to Congestion V e h i c l e Type Fuel Loss Fuel Cost (thousand l i t r e ) (thousand won) R a t i o ( % ) Passenger Car 762 162,918 17.5 Bus 2,122 273,409 29.5 Taxi 224 47,870 5.2 Truck 3,440 443,317 47.8 TOTAL 6,548 927,514 100.0 * Source: C a l c u l a t e d by the author 4. 3 Tra v e l Time Costs Table 3-16 shows the t o t a l d a i l y time l o s s costs by v e h i c l e type due to congestion. The t o t a l time costs amount to 27,716 m i l l i o n won. For passenger cars the time costs come to 5,108 m i l l i o n won; f o r buses, 19,157 won; f o r t a x i s , 1,518 m i l l i o n won; f o r t r u c k s , 1,933 m i l l i o n won. The r a t i o of time costs f o r buses to t o t a l time costs i s 69.1 percent, which i s the l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of t o t a l time l o s s c o s t s . Table 3-12: Estimated Travel Time Costs i n Seoul Due to Congestion V e h i c l e Type Time Costs (thousand won) Rat i o (%) Passenger Car 5,107,554 18.4 Bus 19,156,635 69.1 Taxi 1,518,478 5.5 Truck 1,933,058 7.0 TOTAL 27,715,725 100.0 * Source: C a l c u l a t e d by the author - 31 -T o t a l Congestion Costs In t h i s study we assumed that t o t a l congestion costs c o n s i s t e d of v e h i c l e operating costs ( f u e l costs) and t r a v e l time c o s t s . The sum of f u e l costs i n Table 3-15 and time costs i n Table 3-16 gives t o t a l congestion costs. As shown i n Table 3-17, most congestion costs accrue to t r a v e l time costs (96.7%). I t i s notable that the congestion costs of bus passengers are huge and account f o r about 68 percent of t o t a l congestion costs. This e x p l a i n s why many measures to reduce urban congestion place emphasis on i n c r e a s i n g the s e r v i c e q u a l i t y of mass t r a n s i t . Table 3-13: T o t a l Congestion Costs i n Seoul U n i t s : thousand won, % Ve h i c l e Fuel Costs Time Costs T o t a l Congestion Cost Type Amount Ratio Amount Rat i o Amount Ra t i o Pax Car 162,918 0.6 5,107,554 17 8 5,270,472 18.4 Bus 273,409 1.0 19,156,635 66 9 19,430,044 67. 9 Taxi 47,870 0.2 1,518,478 5 3 1,566,348 5.5 Truck 443,317 1.5 1,933,058 6 7 2,376,375 8.2 TOTAL 927,514 3.3 27,715,725 96 7 28,643,289 100.0 * Source: C a l c u l a t e d by the author 5. CONCLUSIONS We estimated the congestion costs i n Seoul by using some assumptions and r e l a t i v e l y simple data on average t r a v e l speed, average t r a v e l d i s t a n c e , average occupancy by v e h i c l e type, and other f a c t o r s . Despite the crudeness of our e s t i m a t i o n due to l a c k - 3 2 -of data, we can l e a r n some important lessons from the magnitude of congestion cost estimates. F i r s t , the magnitude of congestion costs i n Seoul i s much gre a t e r than most people r e a l i z e . The reason i s that since the great m a j o r i t y of the congestion costs occur i n the form of t r a v e l time, people do not tend to value t h e i r l o s t time i n monetary terms. Second, as most congestion costs may be a t t r i b u t e d to bus use, p o l i c y p r i o r i t i e s to decrease t r a f f i c congestion should be put on mass t r a n s i t . Once the s e r v i c e q u a l i t y of mass t r a n s i t i s improved, t h i s mode can a t t r a c t current passenger car users. That w i l l reduce urban congestion even more. T h i r d , the p o r t i o n of f u e l costs i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l . Thus i n reducing congestion, the p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r decreasing t r a v e l time should be considered more important than those f o r i n c r e a s i n g f u e l c o s t s . Fourth, these overwhelming congestion costs can be a warning to v e h i c l e users and p o l i c y developers. They should keep i n mind that v e h i c l e use i n a congested t r a f f i c network creates costs f o r other users of the network which are not taken i n t o account i n t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l t r a n s p o r t d e c i s i o n s (Bertrand, 1978). F i n a l l y , t o t a l congestion costs estimated i n t h i s study are current - 3 3 -congestion costs (at the end of 1991). These f i g u r e s w i l l be greater and greater i n the future as the number of v e h i c l e s i n c r e a s e s . Thus some proper measures to reduce congestion i n Seoul are imminent. - 3 4 -CHAPTER 4 DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVES TO REDUCE TRAFFIC CONGESTION 1. DEFINITION OF TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT Tra n s p o r t a t i o n Demand Management (TDM) measures are ac t i o n s and p o l i c i e s that t r y to change people's t r a v e l behaviour to reduce the amount of v e h i c l e t r a f f i c and congestion (Transport 2021, 1993). TDM measures a l s o come i n " c a r r o t " and " s t i c k " v a r i e t i e s . "Carrot" measures are r e l a t i v e l y easy to implement, are vol u n t a r y and emphasize i n c e n t i v e s to encourage people to change t h e i r t r a v e l behaviour. " S t i c k " measures are mandatory and r e l y on time and cost p e n a l t i e s to a c t i v e l y discourage solo d r i v i n g (Transport 2021, 1993). " S t i c k " measures are a l s o r e f e r r e d to as " T r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t measures" by May, A.D. (1986). He defined them as "those that impose a r e s t r i c t i o n on v e h i c l e use i n order to achieve a s i g n i f i c a n t m o d i f i c a t i o n i n the mode, time, route, or d e s t i n a t i o n of journeys." Thomson (1968) defined t r a f f i c management as a l l p h y s i c a l measures designed to i n f l u e n c e the movement of t r a f f i c on an e x i s t i n g network. In t h i s study TDM measures are defined as a l l the measures which are adopted with the i n t e n t i o n of reducing t r a f f i c volume and congestion. 2. CATEGORIES OF TDM MEASURES The v a r i o u s TDM measures can be cate g o r i z e d by the f o l l o w i n g two - 3 5 -c r i t e r i a (Transport 2021, 1993) F i r s t : ease of implementation. Most " c a r r o t " TDM measures are r e l a t i v e l y easy to implement because they use i n c e n t i v e s r a t h e r than p e n a l t i e s to encourage changes i n t r a v e l behaviour. " S t i c k " TDM measures i n v o l v e f i n a n c i a l p e n a l t i e s such as t o l l s , taxes and increased t r a v e l time costs to a f f e c t t r a v e l d e c i s i o n s . Second: e f f e c t . TDM measures may have three main e f f e c t s . (1) Modal s h i f t : some measures s h i f t t r a n s p o r t modes from automobiles to high occupancy v e h i c l e s . (2) T r i p e l i m i n a t i o n : some measures reduce the p e r s o n - t r i p s made. (3) S h i f t peak demands: some measures s h i f t t r i p s from peak periods to off-peak periods. Thomson (1972) d i v i d e d measures f o r l i m i t i n g t r a f f i c i n t o three groups according to the l e v e l of impact on t r a v e l d e s i r e s : t r a f f i c r e s t r i c t i o n , t r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t , and t r a f f i c avoidance. T r a f f i c r e s t r i c t i o n was categorized again as p h y s i c a l and l e g a l measures, and t r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t as f i s c a l and p h y s i c a l measures. May (1986) ca t e g o r i z e d t r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t measures i n terms of the stage i n the process of car a c q u i s i t i o n and use at which r e s t r a i n t s are imposed: r e s t r a i n t s on ownership, r e s t r a i n t s on the d e s t i n a t i o n f o r a journey, r e s t r a i n t s while the car i s i n use, and i n terms of the type of penalty: p h y s i c a l r e s t r i c t i o n s , time p e n a l t i e s , r e g u l a t o r y c o n t r o l s and p r i c e . - 3 6 -In t h i s study we categorized the TDM measures by use of i n c e n t i v e and by type of c o n t r o l . Table 4-1 presents a l i s t of TDM measures ca t e g o r i z e d by the above c r i t e r i a . Table 4-1: Categories of TDM Measures 1. Carrot TDM Measures - P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment f o r HOVs - Improvement of T r a n s i t System - I n t r o d u c t i o n of P a r a - t r a n s i t - Encouragement of Ridesharing - V a r i a b l e Work Hours 2. S t i c k TDM Measures 1) P h y s i c a l R e s t r a i n t s Parking Supply Controls T r a f f i c Zone Systems 2) Regulatory R e s t r a i n t s Odd and Even Days Rule Road Use Permit System 3) Use of P r i c i n g System Taxation of Cars Fuel Tax Parking Charges Charging f o r Road Usage The r e s t of t h i s chapter describes each measure i n Table 4-1 i n terms of i t s main c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , i t s advantages and disadvantages from a c t u a l experiences and/or from academic reseaches. - 3 7 ' -3. CARROT TDM MEASURES 3.1 P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment f o r HOVs 3.1.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s P r e f e r e n t i a l treatment f o r high occupancy v e h i c l e s (HOV) gives t r a v e l l e r s an i n c e n t i v e or reward f o r t r a v e l l i n g by mass t r a n s i t or i n autos with m u l t i p l e occupants (car pools or van p o o l s ) . The i n c e n t i v e s can broadly be categorized i n t o four types (Transport 2021, 1993). 1) Economic i n c e n t i v e s : some measures, such as reduced parking fees f o r HOVs, reduce the costs f o r the HOV user. 2) Convenience i n c e n t i v e s : some measures, such as park-and-r i d e spaces f o r car pool users, make a p a r t i c u l a r t r i p more convenient f o r the HOV user. 3) Space i n c e n t i v e s : some measures, such as t r a n s i t malls and auto r e s t r i c t e d zones, reserve t r a n s p o r t f a c i l i t i e s f o r HOV use only. 4) Time i n c e n t i v e s : some measures, such as HOV lanes and t r a f f i c s i g n a l preemption, decrease the t r a v e l time f o r HOV users. 3.1.2 Advantages One of the major c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the HOV i s i t s e f f i c i e n c y i n moving l a r g e numbers of people f o r the same amount of road space compared to low occupancy cars. Thus, these measures reduce o v e r a l l t r a v e l delays due to t r a f f i c congestion, and lower a i r p o l l u t a n t emissions and energy consumption (Transport 2021, 1993). Moreover, as the HOVs g e n e r a l l y o f f e r s e r v i c e s f o r the m a j o r i t y of -38-people without cars and play a key r o l e i n meeting the i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r t r a n s p o r t not only from lower income groups but a l s o f o r s o c i e t y as a whole, i t i s f a i r to give p r e f e r e n t i a l treatment to HOVs. Furthermore, because many of the HOV p r e f e r e n t i a l treatment measures r e s u l t i n t r a v e l time savings f o r HOV users, they can sometimes reduce t o t a l t r a v e l time f o r a l l v e h i c l e users. Most of the measures f o r p r e f e r e n t i a l treatment of HOVs have low c a p i t a l costs and thus can be implemented r e l a t i v e l y q u i c k l y (Transport 2021, 1993). 3.1.3 Disadvantages In the case of concurrent flow HOV lanes, problems have r e s u l t e d from n o n - p r i o r i t y v e h i c l e s using the lanes. The e f f e c t i v e n e s s of HOV p r i o r i t y lanes i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to the enforcement of them. I t might r e q u i r e s u b s t a n t i a l enforcement resources to ensure that n o n - p r i o r i t y v e h i c l e s do not use HOV p r i o r i t y lanes. Designating an e x i s t i n g t r a f f i c lane as a contra flow HOV lane i s most p r a c t i c a l on road s e c t i o n s having a strong d i r e c t i o n a l imbalance of t r a f f i c volumes during peak periods (Transport 2021, 1993). Moreover, the v i o l a t i o n s which are common i n the concurrent flow HOV lanes are very rare i n the contra flow lanes due to t h e i r nature. There might be some problems i n contra flow lanes with regard to t r a f f i c s a f e t y . - 3 9 -3.2 Improvement of T r a n s i t Systems 3.2.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s The fundamental st r a t e g y f o r improving the t r a n s i t system i s to encourage auto users to s h i f t to the more e f f i c i e n t high occupancy modes of t r a n s p o r t . According to Thomson (1977), attempts to improve t r a f f i c c o n d i t i o n s by p r o v i d i n g more road c a p a c i t y would s h i f t t r a v e l l e r s from p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t to p r i v a t e t r a n s p o r t , which would e v e n t u a l l y r e s t o r e e x i s t i n g congestion l e v e l s and lower the q u a l i t y of road t r a v e l to a new e q u i l i b r i u m , but t r a n s i t r i d e r s h i p i s l e s s than before, thus aggravating the problems f a c i n g t r a n s i t operators. Mogridge (1985) conjectured that the only way to increase the road speed w i t h i n and around the c e n t r a l conurbation i s to increase the speed of r a i l or other high-capacity systems where car t r a v e l has a l a r g e suppressed demand. A l s o , numerous st u d i e s have c o r r e c t l y pointed out that the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of t r a n s i t system i s most s e n s i t i v e to frequency and a c c e s s i b i l i t y . 3.2.2 Advantages T r a n s i t systems provide the most e f f i c i e n t means of moving l a r g e numbers of people, e s p e c i a l l y i n dense urban areas. The maximum ca p a c i t y of r a p i d r a i l t r a n s i t was estimated at 60,000 passengers per hour per t r a c k ; that of LRT was about 36,000; and that of buses - 4 0 -was 30,000 passengers per hour per lane. In c o n t r a s t , the maximum number of persons which cars are able to c a r r y was estimated at about 3,500 persons per hour per lane at the average occupancy of 1.5 persons (World Bank, 1986). Bus s e r v i c e s provide considerable f l e x i b i l i t y i n meeting demands f o r t r a n s p o r t at various l e v e l s of q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y . In many developing c o u n t r i e s , buses are the only means of m o b i l i t y t h a t can be afforded by the urban poor (World Bank, 1986). Improved s e r v i c e s of t r a n s i t systems are h e l p f u l to those without cars and the poor i n the community. I t i s g e n e r a l l y considered that well-designed modern r a i l w a y systems cause minimal environmental impact (except during c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d s ) . Underground railw a y s do not cause any complaints about t h e i r impact on the environment except f o r ground v i b r a t i o n s . However, the main b e n e f i t of r a i l t r a n s i t systems could be re d u c t i o n i n road t r a f f i c r e s u l t i n g from passengers t r a v e l l i n g by t r a i n r a t h e r than cars or buses. 3.2.3 Disadvantages The c a p i t a l and operating costs f o r r a i l t r a n s i t systems d i f f e r from system to system. Massive c o n s t r u c t i o n and operating costs are i n d i c a t e d as the greatest drawback of r a p i d t r a n s i t systems. The c a p i t a l costs of underground r a i l systems are estimated as about 25 b i l l i o n won per km i n Korea ( M i n i s t r y of Transportation) . -41 -The c o n s t r u c t i o n cost of the Sao Paulo Metro was $2,338 m i l l i o n , or $96 m i l l i o n per km at 1983 p r i c e s ; the Caracas Metro' cost was estimated to be $1,440 m i l l i o n , or more than $117 m i l l i o n per km (World Bank, 1986). In the case of the Hong Kong Mass T r a n s i t Railway system, a heated controversy arose on account of the massive c a p i t a l investment i n v o l v e d (Edwards, 1982). The environmental impact of the c o n s t r u c t i o n of r a p i d r a i l systems in c l u d e s many aspects. During the c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d , road t r a f f i c congestion can be a serious problem i n a b u i l t - u p area, together with noise, dust, v i s u a l o b s t r u c t i o n , and so on. F i n a l l y , there i s the p o s s i b i l i t y that i n s u f f i c i e n t auto users would d i v e r t to the r a i l system, thus l e a v i n g the roads congested and u n d e r - u t i l i z a t i o n of c o s t l y t r a n s i t investments. 3. 3 I n t r o d u c t i o n of Para-Transit 3.3.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Urban t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s have been t r a d i t i o n a l l y perceived i n terms of the p r i v a t e automobile versus conventional f i x e d route t r a n s i t systems (Roos & A l s c h u l e r , 1975). As t r a n s i t systems operate on f i x e d schedules and routes, they do not compete e f f e c t i v e l y with the automobile which operates on v a r i a b l e schedules and routes. P a r a - t r a n s i t f a l l s between the p o l a r extremes represented by f i x e d route, f i x e d schedule t r a n s i t -42-s e r v i c e s and the completely f l e x i b l e nature of automobile t r a n s p o r t (Roos & A l s c h u l e r , 1975). P a r a - t r a n s i t i s defined by S i l c o c k (1981) as "motorized p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t modes which have some f l e x i b i l i t y i n at l e a s t one of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of route, frequency or far e i n contrast to bus or r a i l s e r v i c e s , which are assumed to be constrained i n a l l three." The concept of para-t r a n s i t i n c l u d e s the use of dial-a-bus s e r v i c e s , minibuses, j i t n e y s , jeepneys, s u b s c r i p t i o n buses, and so on. 3.3.2 Advantages P a r a - t r a n s i t i s recognized as p r o v i d i n g more f l e x i b l e s e r v i c e s w i t h r e l a t i v e l y higher speeds than conventional buses or r a i l systems. On the other hand, p a r a - t r a n s i t has a much l a r g e r c a p a c i t y than cars. One of the major changes brought about by the d e r e g u l a t i o n of buses i n the United Kingdom has been the increase i n the number of minibuses. This reveals the advantages of minibuses ( B a n i s t e r & Mackett, 1990). Passengers perceive minibuses as more a c c e s s i b l e , f a s t , comfortable and convenient. Over 87 percent of respondents i n Sunderland, U.K. found the convenience of h a i l - and-ride h e l p f u l ( B a n i s t e r & Mackett, 1990). The q u a l i t y of s e r v i c e o f f e r e d by minibuses r e i n f o r c e s the perceptions of convenience. Passengers tend to f e e l more secure i n a smaller v e h i c l e where everyone i s cl o s e to the d r i v e r (Gomez-Ibanez & Meyer, 1987). The t r a v e l speed of p a r a - t r a n s i t i s g e n e r a l l y f a s t e r than those of the conventional buses. In Manila, an average t r a v e l speed of a - 4 3 -jeepney on the 11-km route along the c e n t r a l c o r r i d o r was 20 km/h i n the off-peak p e r i o d , whereas that of buses was 15 km/h (Gravas, 1972). Minibuses are more s u i t e d f o r serving lower d e n s i t y areas and can o f f e r g r e a t e r route coverage. The replacement of l a r g e buses by small ones may be associated with a f i n e r network of s e r v i c e s or demand-responsive s e r v i c e s , r a t h e r than higher frequencies ( B a n i s t e r & Mackett, 1990). I t may reduce access time to minibuses and generate a d d i t i o n a l patronage. As w e l l as o f f e r i n g f l e x i b i l i t y over space, minibuses o f f e r f l e x i b i l i t y over time i n the sense that they may be more s u i t a b l e f o r low l e v e l s of off-peak patronage and that the greater frequency used i n the peak to match the capacity of l a r g e buses can be reduced i n the off-peak, while s t i l l p r o v i d i n g acceptable s e r v i c e ( B a n i s t e r & Mackett, 1990). 3.3.3 Disadvantages A minibus r e q u i r e s the same number of s t a f f to operate i t as a l a r g e bus, so the operating costs of small buses are l i k e l y to be higher than la r g e buses. Thus, higher fares would be charged by minibuses than conventional buses. More minibuses are required to provide the same c a p a c i t y as l a r g e buses. Therefore, minibuses may produce a net increase i n t r a f f i c -44-flow and could worsen t r a f f i c congestion (Unless much of t h e i r t r a f f i c i s d i v e r t e d from cars r a t h e r than from other p u b l i c t r a n s i t ) . B a n i s t e r and Mackett (1990) concluded from d i s c u s s i o n s with operators that the increase i n the s i z e of the minibus f l e e t i s an important c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r to o f f - r o a d congestion. A c c e s s i b i l i t y to minibuses does cause d i f f i c u l t i e s f o r e l d e r l y people due to the high step heights and the r e l a t i v e l y narrow entrances. Storage space f o r luggage and shopping on the v e h i c l e i s a l s o r e s t r i c t e d ( B a n ister and Mackett, 1990). The accident rate of p a r a - t r a n s i t i s o f t e n claimed to be high, mainly due to frequent stopping and s t a r t i n g to p i c k up and discharge passengers. 3.4 Encouragement of Ridesharing 3.4.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Ridesharing can take the form of car sharing and van p o o l i n g . B o n s a l l (1981) defined car sharing as a g l o b a l term which encompasses l i f t - g i v i n g and car po o l i n g . Car po o l i n g i s a p r a c t i c e i n which d r i v e r s take turns d r i v i n g one another to a common d e s t i n a t i o n . Van po o l i n g i s a more s p e c i a l i z e d form of l i f t - g i v i n g i n which the d r i v e r uses a minibus r a t h e r than an or d i n a r y car. One of the key steps i n implementing a r i d e s h a r i n g program i s r i d e matching. There are various ways to make prospective matches. One - 4 5 -simple scheme i s to put up a large map of the l o c a l area and have employees i n t e r e s t e d i n r i d e s h a r i n g put pins i n the map i n d i c a t i n g where they l i v e . Each person l i v i n g i n a given zone can then be provided with the names and telephone numbers of co-workers l i v i n g i n the same area, so they can arrange r i d e s h a r i n g . Ride matching can a l s o be conducted by using r i d e matching software programs (Transport 2021, 1993). In the U.S. from 1974, when the Emergency Highway Energy Conservation Act authorized the use of the Federal A i d Highway Funds to finance ninety percent of the cost of car pool demonstration p r o j e c t s , the impetus f o r expanded governmental involvement i n the encouragement of car sharing has been remarkable. A t o t a l of 106 car sharing p r o j e c t s i n t h i r t y - f o u r s t a t e s and n i n e t y - s i x urban areas, and twelve thousand van pools had been approved by 1981 since the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the program (Greening & Jackson,'1984). 3.4.2 Advantages Well-designed r i d e s h a r i n g programs can increase average v e h i c l e occupancy and reduce v e h i c l e - t r i p s , v e h i c l e - k i l o m e t r e s of t r a v e l , a i r p o l l u t i o n and energy consumption. In Los Angeles, Commuter Tra n s p o r t a t i o n Services Inc. coordinated approximately 250,000 commuters and has been s u c c e s s f u l i n a t t r a c t i n g two to four percent of the t o t a l commuters i n the area to r i d e s h a r i n g (Transport 2021, 1993). - 4 6 -In the case of l i f t - g i v i n g , p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t users can have the chance of using more comfortable and convenient t r a n s p o r t modes. Ridesharing p a r t i c i p a n t s can a l s o enjoy s u b s t a n t i a l cost savings over solo d r i v i n g , as shown i n Table 4-2 (Transport 2021, 1993). Table 4-2: Monthly Commute Costs U n i t : U.S. D o l l a r D a i l y D r i v i n g 3-Person Vanpool Vanpool Commute Alone Carpool (13 Riders) D r i v e r (miles) 30 165 55 45 0 50 231 77 52 0 70 300 100 60 0 90 366 122 67 0 * Source: Transport 2021 (1993) Employers have a l s o b e n e f i t t e d from employee r i d e s h a r i n g programs because employees a r r i v e at work l e s s s t r e s s e d and absenteeism and ta r d i n e s s are reduced (Transport 2021, 1993). 3 . 4 . 3 Disadvantages Most e m p i r i c a l studies show that the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of r i d e s h a r i n g programs i s q u i t e questionable. The percentage of t a r g e t p o p u l a t i o n who became car sharers d i d not exceed two percent i n the U.K. program ( B o n s a l l , 1981). In the U.S. car sharing program, the red u c t i o n i n average v e h i c l e miles t r a v e l l e d averaged 0.7 percent of work t r i p v e h i c l e miles t r a v e l l e d . These achievements are f a r l e s s than the i n i t i a l l y s t a t e d aim i n 1974 to reduce commuting v e h i c l e miles by about twenty percent (ITE, 1981). - 4 7 -Moreover, r i d e s h a r i n g normally increases the t r a v e l time of p a r t i c i p a n t s compared to s o l o d r i v i n g because of passenger pick-ups and d r o p - o f f s . I t i s a l s o somewhat l e s s convenient. One concern i s not having a personal automobile at one's d i s p o s a l at work i n case of emergencies or unscheduled overtime (Transport 2021, 1993). Another problem i s that p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t users form a l a r g e p o r t i o n of the a p p l i c a n t s and p a r t i c i p a n t s of r i d e s h a r i n g programs. As a r e s u l t , the o v e r a l l net re d u c t i o n i n car t r a f f i c i s s m a l l . 3.5 V a r i a b l e Work Hours 3.5.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s V a r i a b l e work hour schemes spread work t r i p s over the day, thereby reducing peak p e r i o d t r i p demand. The three b a s i c types of v a r i a b l e work hours programs are as f o l l o w s (Transport 2021, 1993). 1) F l e x i b l e hours: This a l s o c a l l e d f l e x - t i m e . Employees can choose t h e i r own s t a r t and f i n i s h times w i t h i n g u i d e l i n e s set by the employer. For example, an employee could work from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. i n s t e a d of the conventional 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. 2) Staggered hours: A staggers hours work schedule has d i f f e r e n t s t a r t and f i n i s h times f o r d i f f e r e n t departments of the o r g a n i z a t i o n . For example, workers i n department A could work from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. while those - 4 8 -i n department B work from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. 3) Compressed work weeks: In t h i s option employees complete t h e i r r e q uired number of work hours i n a fewer number of days than the standard 5 (or 6) day work week. The two most common forms of compressed work weeks (at 40-hours-per-week) are: "Nine/Eighty", i n which two weeks' work i s completed i n nine days; and "Four/Forty", where one weeks' work i s done i n four days. As opposed to f l e x i b l e hours and staggered hours, compressed work weeks a c t u a l l y reduce the t o t a l number of work t r i p s . 3.5.2 Advantages By d i s p l a c i n g some peak-period work t r i p s to other times of the day and by e l i m i n a t i n g some work t r i p s together, v a r i a b l e work hour programs can reduce peak-period t r a f f i c congestion. A f l e x - t i m e demonstration p r o j e c t implemented i n San Francisco i n 1979 provided volu n t a r y g u i d e l i n e s to employees on how to design and operate f l e x i b l e work scheduling procedures at t h e i r o f f i c e s . Some s i x thousand employees, or 2.3 percent of the downtown San Fra n c i s c o workforce, took part i n the p r o j e c t . Most p a r t i c i p a n t s chose to a r r i v e at work e a r l i e r than the previous time. On average, t r a n s i t r i d e r s saved s i x minutes per t r i p and auto commuters saved nine minutes per t r i p by avoiding the peak hour congestion (Transport 2021, 1993). - 4 9 -A compressed work week experiment was implemented f o r U.S. f e d e r a l government employees i n Denver between 1978 and 1981. Employees were given the opportunity of working a Four/Forty or Nine/Eighty schedule i n s t e a d of the standard five-day work week. Among those who chose a compressed work week, almost s i x t y percent took F r i d a y o f f and t h i r t y - s i x percent took Monday. T o t a l v e h i c l e - m i l e s -t r a v e l l e d f e l l by f i f t e e n percent f o r the p a r t i c i p a t i n g employees (Transport 2021, 1993). 3.5.3 Disadvantages V a r i a b l e work hours could a f f e c t the p r o d u c t i v i t y of employees n e g a t i v e l y , e s p e c i a l l y work that requires cooperation or c o o r d i n a t i o n of other employees and/or other o r g a n i z a t i o n s . V a r i a b l e work hours could work against r i d e s h a r i n g because fewer people would have the same s t a r t and f i n i s h times. A l s o , i n d i v i d u a l s with compressed work weeks may make a d d i t i o n a l v e h i c l e t r i p s f o r errands on t h e i r days o f f . These t r i p s could o f f s e t the r e d u c t i o n i n v e h i c l e t r i p s to work. 4. "STICK" TDM MEASURES 4. 1 P h y s i c a l R e s t r a i n t s P h y s i c a l r e s t r a i n t s are d e f i n e d as those measures which deny or r e s t r i c t access to s p e c i f i c p a r ts of the road system by means of - 5 0 -p h y s i c a l b a r r i e r s . In subsequent se c t i o n s we w i l l review two types of p h y s i c a l r e s t r a i n t s : parking supply c o n t r o l s and t r a f f i c zones. 4. 1. 1 Parking Supply Controls 4.1.1.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A freeze or a c e i l i n g could be placed on the t o t a l number of non-r e s i d e n t i a l parking spaces a v a i l a b l e w i t h i n a well-developed area, such as a c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t (Transport 2021, 1993). Most st u d i e s i n the U.K. i n the 1960s proposed parking c o n t r o l s as the most r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e means of t r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t (May, 1986). This i s because they provide a d i r e c t form of r e s t r a i n t on the t r i p ends. Controls on parking supply can be imposed on three d i f f e r e n t types of parking f a c i l i t i e s : on-street parking, p u b l i c o f f - s t r e e t parking and p r i v a t e parking. C o n t r o l s on on-street parking can be imposed by removal of spaces. For example, i n c e n t r a l London from 1962 to 1974 n e a r l y s i x t y percent of on-street parking spaces were removed (May, 1975b). P u b l i c l y operated p u b l i c car parks in c l u d e those owned and operated by the l o c a l a u t h o r i t y , those operated f o r them under a management agreement, and those over which they have d i r e c t c o n t r o l through planning c o n d i t i o n s . The f u l l range of c o n t r o l i s a v a i l a b l e f o r - 51 -such car parks (May, 1986). For p r i v a t e car parks, the only a v a i l a b l e c o n t r o l i s that of planning permission on the p r o v i s i o n of new spaces. 4.1.1.2 Advantages When implemented i n appropriate l o c a l i t i e s , parking supply c o n t r o l s can switch many low occupant auto t r i p s d estined to the l o c a l i t y to t r a n s i t or car pool t r i p s , thereby reducing t r a f f i c congestion. Parking supply c o n t r o l s can be implemented with minimal costs to the c i t y a u t h o r i t y , while i t does ignore costs on users. 4.1.1.3 Disadvantages The f a c t that most parking space i s outside l o c a l a u t h o r i t y c o n t r o l s u b s t a n t i a l l y reduces the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of parking supply c o n t r o l s . The s i t u a t i o n i s made worse by the i n a b i l i t y of parking c o n t r o l s to a f f e c t through t r a f f i c . In the case of London, whereas cars e n t e r i n g the c i t y centre i n the peak destined f o r p u b l i c parking f e l l by t h i r t y percent between 1962 and 1974, p r i v a t e parking and through t r a f f i c both doubled and, as a r e s u l t , t o t a l t r a f f i c i ncreased by t h i r t y percent (May, 1975b). The e f f e c t i v e n e s s of parking supply c o n t r o l s depends s u b s t a n t i a l l y on enforcement. Low l e v e l s of enforcement might r e s u l t i n an increase of i l l e g a l parking. - 5 2 -In a d d i t i o n , c o n t r o l s on parking supply might increase the v e h i c l e operating costs and time costs of the car users who d r i v e around l o o k i n g f o r the few remaining parking spaces. 4.1.2 T r a f f i c Zone Systems 4.1.2.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s T r a f f i c zone systems u s u a l l y i n v o l v e p h y s i c a l or r e g u l a t o r y b a r r i e r s to movement between zones w i t h i n a designated o r b i t a l route (May, 1986). The p r i n c i p a l features of t r a f f i c zone systems are as f o l l o w s (Elmberg, 1972). 1) The c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t should be d i v i d e d i n t o zones. 2) D i r e c t contact between zones by cars should be e l i m i n a t e d . 3) Contact between zones should only be permitted by u t i l i z i n g routes outside the c e n t r a l business area. 4) The number of entrances and e x i t s to each zone should be reduced to a minimum. 5) V e h i c u l a r movement should be permitted w i t h i n each zone. 4.1.2.2 Advantages T r a f f i c zone systems r e d i s t r i b u t e v e h i c l e flow according to the i n t e n t i o n of t r a n s p o r t planners. In Gothenburg, where a t r a f f i c zone system was implemented i n 1970, a reduction of t r a f f i c volume by f i f t y percent was found on some of the s t r e e t s , whereas there - 5 3 -was an increase of t r a f f i c volume by f i f t e e n percent on the r i n g routes. Despite the increase of v e h i c l e volume on the r i n g routes, surveys i n d i c a t e d an increase of the average t r a v e l l e d speed from 16.2 km/hour to 23.2 km/hour along the route c l o c k w i s e , and from 14.6 km/hour to 22.3 km/hour along the route counter-clockwise. This was p a r t i a l l y due to the redesign and s i g n a l i z a t i o n of an important i n t e r s e c t i o n , but i t was a l s o due i n part to the r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of v e h i c l e s on l i n k s of the r a d i a l and r i n g routes (Elmberg, 1972). The cost of t r a f f i c zone systems i s estimated to be moderate. The t o t a l cost i n Gothenburg was estimated as SN. Crs. 1,130,000 (U.S. $220,000). Of the t o t a l c ost, the r e c o n s t r u c t i o n of i n t e r s e c t i o n s ( i n c l u d i n g r e l o c a t i o n of t r a i n stops and complete s i g n a l i z a t i o n ) accounted f o r 82.3 percent, and the cost of other m o d i f i c a t i o n s such as route s i g n i n g information accounted f o r the remainder (Elmberg, 1972). 4.1.2.3 Disadvantages In order to implement the t r a f f i c zone systems, the existence of a r i n g route outside the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t i s the p r e r e q u i s i t e c o n d i t i o n . Thus t h i s measure cannot be a p p l i e d u n c o n d i t i o n a l l y to any c i t y . T r a f f i c zone systems are a l s o s a i d to increase access d i s t a n c e s from the o r b i t a l route to p r o p e r t i e s i n the area, and such access - 5 4 -problems have oft e n been a source of annoyance to r e s i d e n t s (May, 1986). T r a f f i c zone systems are g e n e r a l l y i n f l e x i b l e and u n s e l e c t i v e . As s e r v i c i n g and emergency v e h i c l e s can be adversely a f f e c t e d , some devices such as l o c k a b l e posts or t r a v e r s a b l e curbs are to be incorporated with p h y s i c a l b a r r i e r s to accommodate such v e h i c l e s (May, 1986). One p a r t i c u l a r problem i n t r a f f i c zone systems i s the imbalance between demand f o r and supply of parking f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n i n d i v i d u a l zones. This should be taken i n t o account when d i v i d i n g a c e r t a i n area i n t o s e v e r a l zones. 4.2 Regulatory R e s t r a i n t s Regulatory r e s t r a i n t s mandate c e r t a i n behaviours or p r o h i b i t others. They p r o h i b i t or l i m i t by government command the behaviours i t wants to discourage and permit or r e q u i r e those i t wants to encourage (Downs, 1992). 4.2.1 Odd and Even Days Rule 4.2.1.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s In odds and evens systems, v e h i c l e s whose p l a t e numbers end w i t h an even d i g i t are excluded from using roads on odd-numbered dates; the remaining p l a t e holders may not use roads on even-numbered dates. - 5 5 -The system operates i n Athens and Lagos, where odd-numbered v e h i c l e s are permitted to enter the c o n t r o l l e d area during the working day on c e r t a i n days of the week, and even-numbered v e h i c l e s on the others (May, 1986). In Lagos, v e h i c l e s with r e g i s t r a t i o n numbers beginning with an even d i g i t s h a l l not be d r i v e n along the designated highways between the hours of 6:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. on Monday, Wednesday and Fr i d a y of every week. V e h i c l e s whose r e g i s t r a t i o n numbers begin with an odd d i g i t s h a l l not be d r i v e n on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday of every week. However, the r e s t r a i n t s do not apply to ambulances, m i l i t a r y v e h i c l e s , p o l i c e v e h i c l e s , d i p l o m a t i c v e h i c l e s , F e s t i v a l of A r t s and Culture's Conference v e h i c l e s , or commercial and p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t , i n c l u d i n g t a x i cabs (Ogunsanya, 1984). 4.2.1.2 Advantages Odds and evens systems could c e r t a i n l y be e f f e c t i v e i n reducing congestion and environmental p o l l u t i o n . In the case of Lagos, according to i n t e r v i e w data (Ogunsanya, 1984), f i f t y percent of the car owners used t h e i r cars to go to work "always", and the r e s t used them sometimes. When they d i d not use t h e i r c a r s , they shared a r i d e . About s i x t y percent of the respondents maintained that urban t r a f f i c flow g r e a t l y improved, and that there was a considerable r e d u c t i o n i n the time spent between home and work. The cost of implementing an odds and evens system i s q u i t e - 5 6 -n e g l i g i b l e . I t does not r e q u i r e massive c a p i t a l investment. The main costs r e s u l t s from enforcement and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e needs. In a d d i t i o n , exemptions f o r car sharers w i l l encourage car sharing. 4.2.1.3 Disadvantages One of the major f a c t o r s which reduces the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of odds and evens systems i s i n e f f e c t i v e enforcement. In Lagos, even though f i v e thousand new t r a f f i c wardens were r e c r u i t e d f o r the scheme, the m a j o r i t y of car users were able to circumvent the r e s t r a i n t measures. According to the survey (Ogunsanya, 1984), seventy percent of the respondents agreed that they could use t h e i r cars throughout the month by b r i b i n g the t r a f f i c - w a r d e n s . In a d d i t i o n , very a f f l u e n t people bought a second car --• and so had one with an even, the other with an odd f i n a l d i g i t on the l i c e n s e p l a t e . Some f a m i l i e s with two cars bearing odd p l a t e s , f o r example, e i t h e r s o l d one and bought another with an even p l a t e or swapped one with another f a m i l y having a car with an even p l a t e . With odds and evens systems, t r a f f i c i s not n e c e s s a r i l y reduced by one h a l f ; those whose v e h i c l e s are permitted on a given day may make a d d i t i o n a l t r i p s or replace t r i p s by those who are r e s t r i c t e d . And there are the cost of i n t e r f e r i n g with people's pre f e r e d driving/commuting plans. - 5 7 -4.2.2 Road Use Permit System 4.2.2.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s In a road use permit system, road use i s a l l o c a t e d on the b a s i s of " t r i p need" and excludes v e h i c l e s without permits. The form of permit system v a r i e s depending on the basi s f o r permit i s s u e . Permits can be issued only to those e a s i l y i d e n t i f i a b l e users such as r e s i d e n t s or to the d i s a b l e d . I t can be issued based on a demonstration of need to make the p a r t i c u l a r t r i p . In London, a permit c o n t r o l system was proposed by Lane and Hodgkinson (1976) as an a l t e r n a t i v e to other types of t r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t such as r e s t r a i n t by congestion, parking c o n t r o l s , and supplementary l i c e n s i n g . 4.2.2.2 Advantages A permit system would be f a i r e r and more e q u i t a b l e than other t r a f f i c r e s t r a i n t measures such as cordon c o n t r o l type road p r i c i n g , p r o v i d i n g that permits are issued f o r those who have e s s e n t i a l need such as d i s a b l e d or emergency v e h i c l e s (Lane and Hodgkinson, 1976). 4.2.2.3 Disadvantages In a permit system, e f f e c t i v e enforcement of v i o l a t i o n s and - 58-checking f o r fraudulent permit a p p l i c a t i o n s would be p a r t i c u l a r l y important. I f t h i s system i s introduced i n a lar g e c i t y , manpower re q u i r e d f o r enforcement and permit i s s u i n g would be s i g n i f i c a n t . The major cost of a permit system r e s u l t s from enforcement and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e needs. 4.3 Use of P r i c i n g System Measures based on use of p r i c i n g systems assign monetary value to d i f f e r e n t types of t r a v e l modes and then r e l y on t r a v e l l e r s to choose among them. Their goal i s to achieve more e f f i c i e n t use of scarce resources by making the p r i c e s of d i f f e r e n t t r a v e l options more nearly equal to t h e i r s o c i a l costs so that marginal b e n e f i t s w i l l equal or exceed marginal costs (Downs, 1992). The unde r l y i n g p r i n c i p l e of the measures based on use of a p r i c i n g system i s that s o c i a l l y o p t i o n a l t r a f f i c flow can be achieved when the amount which a marginal user i s w i l l i n g to pay f o r h i s use of the road i s equal to the marginal s o c i a l costs a r i s i n g from h i s use (Button, 1982). This i s shown i n Figure 5-1. - 5 9 -Figure 5-1: Optimal P r i c i n g Levels The MSC curve represents the marginal s o c i a l cost of the a d d i t i o n a l v e h i c l e on e x i s t i n g road users. The MPC curve represents the marginal p r i v a t e cost curve. When the l e v e l of t r a f f i c flow i s low, the marginal s o c i a l cost equals the marginal p r i v a t e cost. As the l e v e l of t r a f f i c flow i n c r e a s e s , the marginal s o c i a l cost increases more r a p i d l y than the marginal p r i v a t e c o s t , since the e x t e r n a l costs imposed on other users increases r a p i d l y as congestion r i s e s . The i n d i v i d u a l road user makes h i s " t r a v e l d e c i s i o n according to the marginal p r i v a t e cost. Then the e q u i l i b r i u m t r a f f i c flow i s determined at Ql and the cost i s CI. But t h i s d e c i s i o n ignores the e x t e r n a l cost imposed on other road - 6 0 -users. From a s o c i a l point of view, t h i s i s excessive because i t imposes a d d i t i o n a l e x t e r n a l costs of xy on s o c i e t y . The s o c i a l l y optimal flow i s Q2, where the marginal s o c i a l cost i s equal to demand. In order to decrease the demand f o r t r i p s to Q2, a t o l l of UV should be charged. While the b a s i c theory of a congestion t o l l i s comparatively s t r a i g h t - f o r w a r d , i t s d e t a i l e d implementation has been subject to debate (Button, 1982). 4.3.1 Taxation of Cars 4.3.1.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A general method of i n h i b i t i n g v e h i c l e ownership i s to e s t a b l i s h high import d u t i e s , sales taxes, and annual l i c e n s i n g fees on v e h i c l e s (World Bank, 1986). In most co u n t r i e s taxes on cars have been introduced f o r various purposes, such as to r a i s e general revenue, or to finance road b u i l d i n g , or to l i m i t the expenditure of f o r e i g n exchange. Taxes on cars would be perceived as a component of the p r i c e of owning cars. Therefore, the l e v e l and s t r u c t u r e of the taxes i n f l u e n c e the number of cars owned, the types of cars owned, and s i m i l a r matters. In Singapore, f o r example, a v a r i e t y of taxes on cars were introduced to discourage car ownership (Smith, 1992). For i n s t a n c e , i n mid-1990, a car with an open market value of S$10,000 was subject to customs duty at f o r t y - f i v e percent and an a d d i t i o n a l r e g i s t r a t i o n fee (ARF) of 175 percent, t a k i n g the new car p r i c e to S$32,000. To encourage e a r l y scrapping, a p r e f e r e n t i a l a d d i t i o n a l -61 -r e s t r i c t i o n fee (PARF) scheme was introduced i n 1975 ( r e v i s e d i n 1981). This provides that i f a car i s scrapped w i t h i n ten years the owner pays a lower ARF f o r a replacement car. In Hong Kong, the government t r i p l e d the annual l i c e n s e fee and doubled the f i r s t r e g i s t r a t i o n tax to t y p i c a l l y e i g h t y percent of a car's landed value (Dawson & Brown, 1985). In p r a c t i c e , f i n a n c i a l r e s t r a i n t s on car ownership are l i k e l y to do l i t t l e more than slow down the growth i n the number of v e h i c l e s . As income l e v e l s r i s e , f i n a n c i a l r e s t r a i n t s must p e r i o d i c a l l y be adjusted upward to remain e f f e c t i v e (World Bank, 1986). 4.3 .1 .2 Advantages When introduced p r o p e r l y , taxes on cars can i n f l u e n c e v e h i c l e ownership s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n the short run. In Singapore, car r e g i s t r a t i o n dropped from 33,506 to 23,283 when a d d i t i o n a l r e g i s t r a t i o n fees and road taxes were increased by t w e n t y - f i v e percent and t h i r t y percent r e s p e c t i v e l y i n 1983 (Spencer & Chia, 1985). In Hong Kong, s i g n i f i c a n t tax increases i n 1983 came at a time of economic downturn and l e d to a s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n i n car numbers. The l i c e n s e d car f l e e t dropped by twenty-five percent as some f i f t y thousand cars came o f f the road (Dawson & Brown, 1985). Taxes on cars r e s u l t i n a huge increase i n government revenue while the costs are n e g l i g i b l e . The revenue can be used to improve - 6 2 -t r a f f i c f a c i l i t i e s and s u b s i d i z e the t r a n s i t system. Taxation of car ownership may have a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t on the environment and on s a f e t y , depending on the degree of i t s impact on t r a f f i c . According to Dawson and Brown (1985), i f car ownership r e s t r a i n t achieved twenty percent reduction i n car r e g i s t r a t i o n s , then there would be up to a twelve percent re d u c t i o n i n v e h i c l e emissions, and a s i x percent reduction i n accident c o s t s . 4.3.1.3 Disadvantages A disadvantage of using the sales tax to discourage car purchases i s that o l d e r cars may be l e s s safe and break down more f r e q u e n t l y , thereby adding to congestion (World Bank, 1986). I t a l s o deprives the low-income wage earners of the chance to purchase "my own car." Low-income households are l e s s able to pay the p r i c e s imposed than are higher-income households. Thus i t i s argued that t a x a t i o n on cars i s r e g r e s s i v e and i n e q u i t a b l e . For example, i n the case of Hong Kong, the people most a f f e c t e d by the a d d i t i o n a l tax on cars were b e l i e v e d to be lower-income car owning r e s i d e n t s of the uncongested New T e r r i t o r i e s , where i t i s d i f f i c u l t to l i v e without access to a car (Dawson & Brown, 1985). 4.3.2 Fuel Tax 4.3.2.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Fuel tax increases the cost of automobile t r a v e l as a f u n c t i o n of - 6 3 -use or distance and may r e s t r a i n t o t a l use, but i t does not a f f e c t where and when an automobile i s used. Since buses normally consume l e s s f u e l than automobiles per passenger-kilometre c a r r i e d , an increase i n the motor f u e l tax would increase costs f o r auto t r a v e l by a higher amount than f o r t r a n s i t , improving the r e l a t i v e economic a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of t r a n s i t to t r i p makers. T r a n s i t v e h i c l e s could even be exempted from the f u e l tax (Transport 2021, 1993). The government of Egypt has kept the cost of f u e l a r t i f i c i a l l y low f o r many years. As a consequence, the number of p r i v a t e cars i n Cair o has increased by seventeen percent per year, c r e a t i n g massive congestion throughout the c e n t r a l c i t y (World Bank, 1986). In t h i s case, an o v e r a l l increase i n f u e l p r i c e s could have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on the l e v e l of p r i v a t e car ownership and use. 4.3.2.2 Advantages By making automobile t r a v e l more expensive, higher f u e l taxes can reduce the use of automobiles, thereby decreasing t r a f f i c congestion, a i r p o l l u t i o n and f u e l consumption. In p a r t i c u l a r , i n the aftermath of the o i l c r i s i s i n the 1970s, many co u n t r i e s increased f u e l tax to reduce energy consumption. Moreover, the f u e l tax revenues could be placed i n a dedicated t r u s t fund and used f o r t r a n s i t improvements and TDM programs. The p r o v i n c i a l government of B r i t i s h Columbia c u r r e n t l y c o l l e c t s a - 6 4 -g a s o l i n e tax of $.03 per l i t r e i n Greater Vancouver. The Vancouver Regional T r a n s i t Commission uses the tax revenues to pay p a r t of the l o c a l share of B.C. T r a n s i t ' s operating and c a p i t a l c o s t s . Another advantage of f u e l tax i s that i t i s simple to administer. Compared to taxes on car ownership, f u e l tax as an i n d i r e c t tax could save a d m i n i s t r a t i v e costs and could reduce tax evasion. 4.3.2.3 Disadvantages Since peak pe r i o d work t r i p s are l e s s p r i c e - s e n s i t i v e than t r i p s such as shopping and r e c r e a t i o n t r i p s made mainly during off-peak hours, a higher f u e l tax may have l i t t l e e f f e c t i n reducing peak pe r i o d v e h i c l e t r i p s , and therefore on reducing road i n f r a s t r u c t u r e requirements (Transport 2021, 1993). Many studi e s show that the s e n s i t i v i t y of peak pe r i o d t r i p s to p e t r o l p r i c e changes i s f a i r l y s m a l l . According to Lewis (1978), p e t r o l p r i c e e l a s t i c i t i e s f o r London were estimated as -0.024 on weekday peak and as -0.360 and -0.369 on Saturday and Sunday r e s p e c t i v e l y . Blase (1980) concluded that only i f p e t r o l p r i c e s were to increase by more than t h i r t y percent, would there be a s u b s t a n t i a l impact on t r a f f i c l e v e l s i n London. Fuel tax i s n o n - s e l e c t i v e and i t does not d i s c r i m i n a t e where and when the v e h i c l e i s d r i v e n . A v e h i c l e t r i p during rush hour on a congested freeway s e c t i o n may pay the same gas tax as an off-peak t r i p of the same distance on l i g h t l y used a r t e r i a l s t r e e t s , even - 6 5 -though the rush hour t r i p i n c u r s more s o c i a l costs (Transport 2021, 1993). 4.3.3 Parking Charges 4.3.3.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A v a r i e t y of parking p r i c i n g t o o l s could be used to i n f l u e n c e t r a v e l mode choice i n favour of t r a n s i t , or to reduce t r a v e l frequency. Major types of parking p r i c i n g measures could be c l a s s i f i e d as f o l l o w s (Transport 2021, 1993). 1.) Changing the rate s t r u c t u r e of p u b l i c s e c t o r parking: Set higher p r i c e s f o r long term parking, f o r r e s t p e r i o d parking, and f o r single-occupant automobiles. 2) Parking tax: Levy a d i r e c t tax on parking spaces, such as an annual d o l l a r amount per parking space. Such a tax could be a p p l i e d u n i v e r s a l l y , or only to s p e c i f i c types of parking spaces i n designated zones. Among a number of methods of parking c o n t r o l , p r i c i n g c o n t r o l has been the most commonly used form i n many areas. This i s because p r i c i n g c o n t r o l i s more f l e x i b l e and simple to operate and e a s i e r to understand than other measures of parking c o n t r o l (May, 1975). In Singapore, parking charges w i t h i n the r e s t r i c t e d area were r a i s e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y to f u r t h e r discourage the use of p r i v a t e c a r s , as a complementary measure of the Area L i c e n s i n g Scheme (World Bank, 1986). - 6 6 -4.3.3.2 Advantages A p p r o p r i a t e l y imposed parking charges r a i s e parking costs s u f f i c i e n t l y to steer auto d r i v e r s i n the d i r e c t i o n of t r a n s i t , thereby reducing t r a f f i c congestion. The e f f e c t s of parking p r i c i n g on use of automobiles depends on the a v a i l a b i l i t y of a l t e r n a t i v e spaces and on the amount of through t r a f f i c . E l l i o t et a l . (1977) estimated that i n order to r e s t r a i n f i f t y percent of present users of long term parking i n c e n t r a l London, charges should be doubled; to r e s t r a i n s i x t y percent, charges should be t r i p l e d . Parking charges could produce s u b s t a n t i a l revenue, and t h i s can be used to help fund the required t r a n s i t improvements on other TDM programs. The p r o v i n c i a l government of B r i t i s h Columbia r e c e n t l y amended the B.C. T r a n s i t Act to authorize the Vancouver Regional T r a n s i t Commission to levy a tax on n o n - r e s i d e n t i a l parking spaces as a component source of revenue f o r the l o c a l share of t r a n s i t costs (Transport 2021, 1993). In a d d i t i o n , parking charge measures can be implemented with minimal c a p i t a l costs and low operating costs. There may be only some a d m i n i s t r a t i v e and enforcement costs to the government. 4.3.3.3 Disadvantages High parking charges would u n f a i r l y favour those who are b e t t e r able to pay the charge and would p e n a l i z e those who have to park. - 6 7 -They tend to cause s u b s t a n t i a l increases i n i l l e g a l p arking, and th e r e f o r e must be accompanied by s t r i c t enforcement of parking r e g u l a t i o n s . High charges f o r parking may al s o create many unproductive t r i p s , f o r example, when d r i v e r s c i r c u l a t e i n t r a f f i c w a i t i n g f o r passengers or l o o k i n g f o r cheaper parking places (World Bank, 1986). Furthermore, parking charges cannot c o n t r o l through t r a f f i c , which i s of t e n a primary cause of congestion i n c i t y c entres. As a r e s u l t , parking charges may be more e f f e c t i v e as a r e s t r a i n t when i t forms part of a more comprehensive demand management scheme (World Bank, 1986). 4.3.4 Charging f o r Road Usage 4.3.4.1 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s R e l y i n g on congestion alone to r a t i o n road use places a high and i n e q u i t a b l e cost on a l l users of the congested road. Therefore, various d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t methods of charging f o r congestion have been considered and implemented i n many c o u n t r i e s . Of a l l the forms of f i s c a l r e s t r a i n t s , road p r i c i n g has received the most a t t e n t i o n . The i n i t i a l concept of road p r i c i n g was f o r a system i n which d r i v e r s were charged the d i f f e r e n c e between the average cost and the marginal cost (May, 1986). Charging could be broadly c a t e g o r i z e d as o f f - v e h i c l e recording versus on-vehicle metering (Hau, 1992). With o f f - v e h i c l e r e c o rding, the a c t u a l charging i s performed o f f the v e h i c l e -- as with the telephone, gas and e l e c t r i c i t y charges -- even though a transponder may be placed on the v e h i c l e i t s e l f i n the case of automatic scanning. With on-v e h i c l e metering, a c t u a l charges are r e g i s t e r e d on the v e h i c l e i t s e l f using automatic meters (such as using smart ca r d s ) . There are important i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the primary o b j e c t i v e behind the i n t r o d u c t i o n of road p r i c i n g , the type of charging system used, the s p a t i a l p a t t e r n of charging and the time d i s t r i b u t i o n of the charges (Jones & Hervik, 1992). As shown i n Table 4-3, i f the o b j e c t i v e i s to reduce congestion ( t h i s i s a l s o the primary o b j e c t i v e of t h i s study) i n the c i t y , then: 1) A cordon, area l i c e n s e , or t r a v e l - r e l a t e d charge may be appropriate. 2) I t w i l l u s u a l l y be d e s i r a b l e to l o c a t e the r e s t r i c t e d area boundary at a point where longer-distance through t r a f f i c can detour to avoid payment, but one that incorporates the main congested area. 3) Charges are normally v a r i e d by time of day to r e f l e c t congestion, being greatest at peak periods and zero when t r a f f i c i s l i g h t . - 6 9 -Table 4-3: R e l a t i o n s h i p s between Road P r i c i n g O b jectives and Type of Scheme Objective Type of Scheme S p a t i a l P a t t e r n Time D i s t r i b u t i o n of Charge reduce congestion a cordon, an area l i c e n s e , t r a v e l r e l a t e d charge boundary of main congested area v a r i e s by time of day r a i s e revenue a cordon cordon i n t e r -c epting maximum t r a f f i c uniform charge environmental m u l t i p l e cordon area-wide p r o t e c t i o n on an area l i c e n s e greater p e r i o d * Source: Jones and Hervik (1992) Regardless of the o b j e c t i v e s or the p r e c i s e form of implementation of a road p r i c i n g scheme, there are three general issues that a r i s e : 1) t e c h n o l o g i c a l aspects of implementation; 2) s o c i o -p o l i t i c a l aspects of implementation; and 3) b e h a v i o r a l aspects of implementation (Jones & Hervik, 1992). These issues w i l l be reviewed i n d e t a i l i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n . Singapore i s the only c i t y to have a c t u a l l y a p p l i e d area l i c e n s i n g . Since 1975, Singapore has operated the Area L i c e n s i n g Scheme i n an attempt to r e s t r a i n the use of p r i v a t e cars. V e h i c l e s can enter the r e s t r i c t e d area only at c l e a r l y marked entry p o i n t s , and low-occupancy p r i v a t e cars are required to d i s p l a y a s p e c i a l area-l i c e n s e d i s k f o r which a fee of U.S. $2.50 per day (or U.S. $50 per month) during the morning and afternoon peak periods i s r e q u i r e d . P r i v a t e cars with four or more occupants, goods v e h i c l e s and buses are exempt from paying the a r e a - l i c e n s e fee (World Bank, 1986). - 7 0 -In the cases of Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok, where steps have been taken to introduce area l i c e n s i n g , i n i t i a l setbacks have delayed implementation (Armstrong-Wright, 1986). In 1986, Hong Kong i n i t i a t e d an e l e c t r o n i c road p r i c i n g experiment i n which 2,600 autos were equipped with automatic v e h i c l e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n devices and sensors were i n s t a l l e d on key bridges and roads. The v e h i c l e users were b i l l e d through the mail f o r t h e i r t r i p s across the t o l l f a c i l i t i e s . The p r o j e c t was judged a success i n terms of the technology, but met with adverse p u b l i c r e a c t i o n due mainly to personal p r i v a c y concerns. Thus the Hong Kong a u t h o r i t i e s decided to disco n t i n u e the system (Transport 2021, 1993). In the Netherlands, the M i n i s t r y of Transport i s planning to implement a l a r g e - s c a l e road p r i c i n g scheme. The p r e f e r r e d system i s an e l e c t r o n i c p r i c i n g system, using smart card technology to allow anonymous prepayment charging ( S t o e l h o r s t & Zandbergen, 1990). 4.3.4.2 Advantages By charging f o r movement at congested times and i n congested areas, road p r i c i n g can be designed to a f f e c t those v e h i c l e s that c o n t r i b u t e most to the problems of car use. Moreover, there i s no l i m i t i n theory to the l e v e l of charge that can be imposed (May, 1986). Their e f f e c t i v e n e s s depends on the response of d r i v e r s to - 71 -the p r i c e . In 1975, the Area L i c e n s i n g Scheme i n Singapore reduced peak p e r i o d car t r a f f i c e n t e r i n g the r e s t r i c t e d zone between 07:30 and 10:15 a.m. by seventy-three percent, from 42,790 i n March to an average of 11,363 i n September and October (Holland & Watson, 1978). Although the Singapore scheme achieved a s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n i n t r a f f i c , and hence there were perceived improvements i n congestion, too much r e s t r a i n t had been achieved, at l e a s t i n the short term. Desk st u d i e s have attempted to determine the optimal charging l e v e l , at l e a s t i n s o c i a l c o s t - b e n e f i t terms (May, 1986). In London, f o r example, i t was estimated that an optimal a l l - d a y charge of around 60 p to 100 p per day would achieve a net b e n e f i t of around L24 m.p.a. (at 1973 p r i c e s ) (May,1975). With regard to the equity i s s u e , the Singapore scheme showed that most of the b e n e f i t s accrue to the m a j o r i t y of commuters because n e a r l y ninety percent of households t r a v e l l e d by bus both before and a f t e r the scheme was put i n t o e f f e c t . The p r o d u c t i v i t y of buses would increase s i g n i f i c a n t l y because of higher average operating speeds. As f o r t e c h n o l o g i c a l aspects, although simple road p r i c i n g systems (e.g. the Singapore Area L i c e n s i n g Scheme) have been s u c c e s s f u l l y introduced using manual payment systems, more comprehensive schemes i n denser urban areas w i l l need to r e l y on some form of e l e c t r o n i c payment system, f o r two reasons (Jones & Hervik, 1992): (1) Because of the d i f f i c u l t y of c o l l e c t i n g charges r e l a t e d to use and those -72-charges va r y i n g according to congestion l e v e l s ; and (2) Because of the space r e q u i r e d f o r t o l l booths. The s o l u t i o n s to these problems f a l l i n t o two ca t e g o r i e s : (1) An Automatic V e h i c l e I d e n t i f i c a t i o n (AVI) system, where each v e h i c l e c a r r i e s a passive e l e c t r o n i c tag, which i s read by roadside equipment without the v e h i c l e stopping; and (2) A smart card or a decrementing card, which contains a c e r t a i n stored value from which u n i t s are deducted as the v e h i c l e passes charging p o i n t s . The smart card can a l s o s e t t l e the issue of p r i v a c y which has long been debated. There i s no need to i d e n t i f y the v e h i c l e or d r i v e r unless the card i s out of money. 4.3.4.3 D i s a d v a n t a g e s Low-income motorists would pay the same t o l l as higher-income m o t o r i s t s , which could be viewed as a form of r e g r e s s i v e t a x a t i o n . A greater p o r t i o n of lower-income i n d i v i d u a l s than higher-income i n d i v i d u a l s would decide to switch to t r a n s i t f o r t h e i r peak p e r i o d t r i p s or decide to switch t h e i r t r i p s to off-peak periods (Transport 2021, 1993). Moreover, f o r a road p r i c i n g system to be reasonably e f f e c t i v e , the charges to i n d i v i d u a l users must be r e l a t e d to how much they use congested s t r e e t s and the degree of congestion on those s t r e e t s . But i n most urban areas i t i s i m p r a c t i c a l to t r y to c o l l e c t charges f o r road use at the time they are i n c u r r e d . The use of t o l l booths might w e l l aggravate congestion (World Bank, 1986), hence the need f o r s o p h i s t i c a t e d and expensive e l e c t r o n i c c o l l e c t i o n methods. - 7 3 -Enforcement i s another major concern. Any system would have to be designed to make i t p o s s i b l e to i d e n t i f y v e h i c l e s that t r y to evade charges; equipment would have to be proofed against tampering (Armstrong-Wright, 1986). But these arguments could be m i t i g a t e d by i n t r o d u c t i o n of Smart Cards or Automatic V e h i c l e I d e n t i f i c a t i o n systems. In a d d i t i o n , i f there s t i l l are f e a s i b l e a l t e r a t i v e " f r e e " routes, t r a f f i c could d i v e r t to the free routes and simply t r a n s f e r congestion there (Transport 2021, 1993). But t h i s can be avoided by a c a r e f u l design of the road p r i c i n g scheme. S t i l l , some governments, that of A u s t r a l i a f o r example, r e q u i r e that there be a fr e e o p t i o n to a t o l l road. The p r i v a c y issue i s perceived to be an important one and the manner i n which i t can be handled i s dependent on the technology used f o r c o l l e c t i o n of the charge. Above a l l e l s e , c i t y a u t h o r i t i e s have been r e l u c t a n t to t r y road p r i c i n g , p a r t l y because of doubts as to whether the system w i l l work, and p a r t l y out of fea r of p u b l i c r e a c t i o n (World Bank, 1986). But t h i s may be overcome by the governments' w i l l to cope with congestion i n a way that i s u n l i k e l y to be popular with m o t o r i s t s . A s u b s t a n t i a l e f f o r t to achieve p u b l i c acceptance and the f l e x i b i l i t y to respond to changing c o n d i t i o n s are p r e r e q u i s i t e s of the system. -74-CHAPTER 5 ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVES FOR SEOUL 1. INTRODUCTION The advantages and disadvantages of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e and f o r e i g n experience with them have been analyzed i n former chapters. However, the same achievements could not n e c e s s a r i l y be guaranteed f o r Seoul. Therefore, the expected performance of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , i f i t were a p p l i e d to Seoul s i t u a t i o n s , w i l l f i r s t be i d e n t i f i e d i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n . A r a t i n g system has been designed to evaluate each a l t e r n a t i v e i n r e l a t i o n to f i v e c r i t e r i a : e f f i c i e n c y , e q u i t y , f e a s i b i l i t y , environmental e f f e c t , and f l e x i b i l i t y . 2. APPLICATION OF ALTERNATIVE CONGESTION POLICIES TO SEOUL 2.1 "Carrot" TDM Measures 2.1.1 P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment f o r HOVs There are ten concurrent-flow HOV p r i o r i t y lanes i n Seoul which operate from 07:00 to 10:00 during the morning peak and from 17:00 to 21:00 during the evening peak (see Table 5-1). HOV p r i o r i t y lanes are d i f f e r e n t i a t e d from other lanes by blue l i n e s and t r a f f i c signs showing the s t a r t i n g point and the ending p o i n t of the p r i o r i t y lanes. - 7 5 -Table 5-1: HOV P r i o r i t y Lanes i n Seoul Route Length (km) Operating Hours Hankang-ro 4.0 Wangsan-ro 4.1 Kangnam-daero 4.1 Dongjak-ro 7.3 Konghang-ro 3.8 Soosaek-ro 7.2 Hyan choong-ro 9.0 To n g i l - r o 4.0 Banpo-ro 6.4 Wangsipni-gil 8.0 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:00 07:30 10:00 10:00 10:00, 17:00 - 21:00 10:00, 17:00 - 21:00 10:00, 17:00 - 21:00 10:00, 17:00 - 21:00 10:00, 17:00 - 21:00 10:00, 17:00 - 21:00 10:00 09:30 * Source: Seoul Development I n s t i t u t e (1993a) A f t e r i n t r o d u c i n g the p r i o r i t y lanes, the average t r a v e l speed of buses increased by 15.4 percent from 15.33 km/h to 17.69 km/h, but that of passenger cars decreased by 5.8 percent from 21.76 km/h to 20.50 km/h (Seoul Development I n s t i t u t e , 1993a). However, HOV p r i o r i t y lanes provoked p r o t e s t s by some i n t e r e s t groups, such as shop owners along the p r i o r i t y lanes and t a x i operators, i n a d d i t i o n to the common unfavourable r e a c t i o n s by m o t o r i s t s . In Seoul, r e a c t i o n from motorists was more s u b s t a n t i a l than that of any other i n t e r e s t group due to t h e i r higher s o c i a l s t a t u s . Enforcement was another major concern. More p o l i c e o f f i c e r s were needed i n order to i d e n t i f y v e h i c l e s which invade the p r i o r i t y lanes. In o v e r a l l e v a l u a t i o n , HOV p r i o r i t y lanes are considered as s u c e s s f u l and e f f e c t i v e i n reducing t r a f f i c congestion. C i t y government i s supposed to expand the HOV p r i o r i t y lanes by converting some e x i s t i n g lanes i n t o p r i o r i t y lanes. - 7 6 -2 . 1 . 2 Improvement of T r a n s i t Systems The r a p i d r a i l t r a n s i t l i n e s operating i n Seoul c o n s i s t of four l i n e s with a t o t a l length of 118 kil o m e t r e s . Passengers per day number about 3,400 thousand (see Table 5-2). Table 5-2: Rapid R a i l T r a n s i t i n Seoul Line Route Length (km) 7.8 Line 1 Seoul S t a t i o n to Chongryangrhee Line 2 Sungsoo to 54.2 Sungsoo Line 3 Chichook to 27.7 Yangjae Line 4 Sangkye to 28.3 Sadang TOTAL 118.0 Passengers per day (thousand) 871 1,417 477 635 3,400 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1993) The major underground r a i l system i n Seoul w i l l probably encourage the dominance of the e x i s t i n g c i t y centre due to i t s greater a c c e s s i b i l i t y . The routes f o r the extension of e x i s t i n g r a i l t r a n s i t systems or new c o n s t r u c t i o n are g e n e r a l l y recognized to be those s t r e t c h i n g to the newly developed r e s i d e n t i a l areas. The major problem i n improving the underground r a i l system i s how to finance the massive c o n s t r u c t i o n and operating c o s t s . Serious r e s t r a i n t s on c i t y finances are g e t t i n g worse and worse. - 7 7 -Nonetheless, the pressure of c i t i z e n s demanding c o n s t r u c t i o n of new r a i l t r a n s i t l i n e s i s so great that the c i t y government plans to i n v e s t more that 600 b i l l i o n won per year on c o n s t r u c t i n g new r a i l t r a n s i t l i n e s . Buses i n Seoul w i l l be the major t r a n s p o r t mode even i n the f u t u r e . Among the a l t e r n a t i v e s reviewed, the improvement of buses would be one of the most progressive f o r lower income groups. This i s because over f o r t y percent of bus users are i n the lower income group (KAIST, 1983). As a r e s u l t , the n e c e s s i t y f o r the improvement of bus s e r v i c e s (and r a p i d r a i l t r a n s i t ) i t s e l f i s g e n e r a l l y recognized i n the s o c i e t y . In the past, while r e c o g n i t i o n of the ne c e s s i t y f o r bus improvements had been one t h i n g , implementation had been another matter. For example, although many years had passed since the i n t r o d u c t i o n of bus lanes, the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of bus lanes was s t i l l i n doubt owing to the problem of enforcement. But nowadays, c i t y government intends to expand the bus lanes and strengthen enforcement measures. In terms of f i n a n c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , bus systems w i l l be one of the most favourable a l t e r n a t i v e s from the government's poin t of view. This i s because buses i n Korea are operated completely by p r i v a t e operators. But nowadays, as the revenues of bus companies are f a l l i n g r a p i d l y , a subsidy from the c i t y government w i l l be req u i r e d i n the near f u t u r e . But the finances a v a i l a b l e to the c i t y cannot accommodate a l l the demands f o r spending. -78-2. 1.3 Introduction of Para-transit At present, there e x i s t s a type of p a r a - t r a n s i t --. c a l l e d a " v i l l a g e bus" -- i n Seoul. But i t i r o n i c a l l y s u f f e r e d from both o v e r - r e g u l a t i o n and under-regulation as analyzed by A l s c h u l e r (1975). Over-regulation took the form of l a c k of p r e c i s e l e g a l d e f i n i t i o n r e s u l t i n g from s t a t u t e s which were not f l e x i b l e enough to deal a p p r o p r i a t e l y with i n n o v a t i v e concepts. With complement i n s t a t u t e s , a h i g h l y organized p a r a - t r a n s i t s e r v i c e would appear to a t t r a c t considerable demand from p o t e n t i a l car and t a x i users, c o n s i d e r i n g the s u c c e s s f u l operation of s e a t i n g buses which o f f e r higher q u a l i t y , no standing s e r v i c e , and cover a comprehensive network. At f i r s t , the operators of v i l l a g e buses had l i m i t e d l i c e n s e s which r e s t r i c t e d the routes and fares of the v i l l a g e buses. They could o f f e r l o c a l s e r v i c e s from r e s i d e n t i a l areas to subway s t a t i o n s , using small buses at a fare below that of the normal s e r v i c e . Now c i t y a u t h o r i t y plans to use v i l l a g e buses as a complementary system to support r e g u l a r bus s e r v i c e s . Considering the inadequate operation of t a x i type p a r a - t r a n s i t systems i n many developing c o u n t r i e s , bus-type systems w i l l ensure more e f f i c i e n t road use i n Seoul. Although there i s l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n , such types of p a r a - t r a n s i t s e r v i c e would perhaps capture a considerable amount of p o t e n t i a l car ownership demand. - 7 9 -Most of the users of p a r a - t r a n s i t w i l l be those of the middle income group. 2.1.4 Encouragement of Ridesharing In general, car sharing p o t e n t i a l i n Seoul may be much lower than that i n developed c o u n t r i e s . This i s p a r t l y because car owners regard car ownership as a symbol of s o c i a l s t a t u s and may be r e l u c t a n t to share t h e i r cars with others, p a r t l y because car sharing may suggest i n v a s i o n of p r i v a c y . Moreover, so f a r the Seoul c i t y government has not made rigorous e f f o r t s to encourage r i d e s h a r i n g by g i v i n g i n c e n t i v e s such as free parking permits or tax exemption. However, i f car sharing i s introduced as part of a comprehensive t r a f f i c demand management scheme, i t might be able to o f f e r a lower cost method of reducing peak congestion to a c e r t a i n extent. 2.1.5 V a r i a b l e Work Hours I t i s d i f f i c u l t f o r c i t y government to implement v a r i a b l e work hours except at i t s own o f f i c e s because work s t a r t and f i n i s h times are not l e g i s l a t e d , and are a matter of i n d i v i d u a l company p o l i c y (Transport 2021, 1993). But with voluntary cooperation of companies, schools and other o r g a n i z a t i o n s , there e x i s t c e r t a i n types of staggered work hours i n Seoul. Even i f work s t a r t times vary between 07:30 and 10:00 according to the types of o r g a n i z a t i o n s , i t i s g e n e r a l l y accepted that the v a r i a t i o n s are so -80-small that they do not a f f e c t the l e v e l of congestion. But r e c e n t l y some major companies announced that they are going to adopt f l e x i b l e work hours and compressed work hours. These may w e l l be regarded as the green l i g h t to the expansion of v a r i a b l e work hours throughout the country. 2.2 " S t i c k " TDM Measures 2.2.1. P h y s i c a l R e s t r a i n t 2.2.1.1 Parking Supply Controls In 1990, the t o t a l number of parking l o t s i n Seoul contained approximately 410 thousand s t a l l s , i n c l u d i n g those i n r e s i d e n t i a l -s t r u c t u r e parking l o t s . Compared to the nearly 1,200 thousand v e h i c l e s r e g i s t e r e d , the supply of parking f a c i l i t i e s i n Seoul i s regarded as h i g h l y i n s u f f i c i e n t (see Table 5-3). Table 5-3: S t a t i s t i c s of Parking F a c i l i t i e s i n Seoul Year T o t a l On-Street O f f - S t r e e t A f f i l i a t e d V e h i c l e s V e h i c l e s u n i t : thousand S t a l l s per 1,000 1981 73.9 1984 127.2 1987 311.1 1990 406.9 4.2 6.2 8.8 14.4 14.5 21.9 30.1 42.9 55.3 99.1 272.1 349.7 221.6 377.2 631.8 1,193.6 333 337 492 341 * Source: Roh (1991) -81 -Therefore, most tra n s p o r t s p e c i a l i s t s , i n c l u d i n g a m a j o r i t y . of t r a n s p o r t planners, b e l i e v e that the number of parking l o t s i n Seoul should be increased s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n order to cope with r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g demand (Roh, 1991). Of course, parking l o t s should be created with balance i n regard to area, type, and s c a l e . Thus the l i k e l i h o o d of government acceptance of a parking supply r e d u c t i o n scheme i s f a r away f o r the time being. In the long run, the present parking p o l i c y , which concentrates on expansion of parking supply, would a t t r a c t more car t r a f f i c i n t o the c i t y centre. Therefore, there are some movements w i t h i n the parking d i v i s i o n of the c i t y government to f i x the number of parking l o t s i n the c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t (except r e s i d e n t i a l p a r k i n g ) . 2.2.1.2 T r a f f i c Zone Systems The t r a f f i c zone systems i n Gothenburg are g e n e r a l l y accepted as having achieved s u c c e s s f u l r e s u l t s . However, i n t r o d u c t i o n of t r a f f i c zone systems to Seoul i s not very promising because of i t s geographical c o n d i t i o n s . The layout of the c i t y centre i n Seoul i s not easy to d i v i d e i n t o appropriate t r a f f i c zones which w i l l have only a l i m i t e d number of e x i t s ; t h i s i s because the s t r e e t s are arranged i n a g r i d - s t y l e l a y o u t . A l s o , any e f f o r t to provide a proper o r b i t a l route o u t s i d e the CBD would be r e s t r i c t e d by the l i m i t e d space, because most of - 8 2 -the surrounding area of the CBD i s densely concentrated, and q u i t e mountainous i n some areas. I f the c o n t r o l l e d area were expanded to the outer CBD boundary, an o r b i t a l route could be provided more e a s i l y than i n the case of the CBD area. However, the major problem i s the d i f f i c u l t y of d i v i d i n g the area i n t o appropriate t r a f f i c zones. Nonetheless, i t i s worthwhile to consider i n t r o d u c i n g t r a f f i c zone systems around la r g e apartment complexes or to s p e c i f i c congested areas according to the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the areas. 2.2.2 Regulatory R e s t r a i n t s 2.2.2.1 Odd and Even Days Rule Odds and Evens i s r e l a t i v e l y i n f l e x i b l e and hence runs the r i s k of s u b s t a n t i a l o v e r - r e s t r a i n t . Moreover, as t h i s measure i s designed to deprive people u n c o n d i t i o n a l l y of the use of t h e i r cars on c e r t a i n days, at l e a s t there should be a p r o v i s i o n of an e f f i c i e n t and w e l l - c o o r d i n a t e d system of mass t r a n s i t . I f a Lagos-type scheme were implemented i n Seoul, there would need to be much s t r i c t e r enforcement than that i n Lagos. During the Seoul Olympic period i n 1988, Seoul implemented the odds and evens using c i t i z e n s ' voluntary p a r t i c i p a t i o n to reduce t r a f f i c congestion. The r e s u l t s of voluntary odds and evens were q u i t e notable. T r a f f i c volume decreased by 33.8 percent and t r a v e l speed - 8 3 -i n the CBD increased from 20.5 km/h to 34.4 km/h (Seoul Development I n s t i t u t e , 1993). Even i f the e f f e c t s of odds and evens are remarkable as shown above, the d u r a b i l i t y of the e f f e c t s are q u i t e dubious. I f t h i s k i n d of scheme were implemented on a permanent b a s i s , the high-income moto r i s t s would t r y to f i n d ways of circumventing the scheme by purchasing a second car with a complementary number. Above a l l , car owners w i l l use t h e i r cars more i n t e n s i v e l y on u n r e s t r i c t e d days. The number of passengers using t a x i s and s e a t i n g buses would increase s u b s t a n t i a l l y . As a r e s u l t , the t r a f f i c s i t u a t i o n would not meet the t h e o r e t i c a l r eduction by h a l f of the t r a f f i c volume i n the c o n t r o l l e d area. 2.2.2.2 Road Use Permit System The impact of a road use permit system could vary widely depending on the range of authorized v e h i c l e s and the width of the c o n t r o l l e d area. I f permits are issued r e s t r i c t i v e l y f o r e s s e n t i a l purpose v e h i c l e s , i t would be easy to enforce, and the impact on t r a f f i c would be n o t i c e a b l e . However, i f permits were issued widely, the impact on t r a f f i c would be i n s i g n i f i c a n t . In a d d i t i o n , i f the r e s i d e n t s of c o n t r o l l e d areas are exempted from the c o n t r o l , i t could increase the number of r e s i d e n t s ' cars l e g a l l y or i l l e g a l l y . - 8 4 -With regard to business c a r s , an a l l o c a t i o n should be devised based on h i g h l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d c r i t e r i a such as number of employees or area of business space. I t would be hard to make an accurate assessment of the required need case by case. I t r e q u i r e s not only a s u b s t a n t i a l amount of manpower f o r l i c e n s e i s s u i n g and enforcement, but i t would a l s o be c r i t i c i z e d f o r i t s p o s s i b l e d i s c r i m i n a t i o n among d i f f e r e n t businesses. In p r a c t i c e , a r e s t r i c t i v e permit system i n which permits are is s u e d only f o r e s s e n t i a l purpose v e h i c l e s or r e s i d e n t s would be nearly impossible to implement co n s i d e r i n g the v i t a l r o l e of the CBD. I f the c o n t r o l l e d area were expanded, such a problem would become more s e r i o u s . Therefore, i t i s not l i k e l y t hat t h i s p o l i c y w i l l be pursued f o r some very s p e c i f i c areas and circumstances. 2.2.3 Use of P r i c i n g System 2.2.3.1 Taxation of Cars In Korea, current n a t i o n a l taxes on cars c o n s i s t of s p e c i a l e x c i s e taxes and value-added taxes. There are a l s o four l o c a l taxes: the automobile ownership tax, the a c q u i s i t i o n tax, the r e g i s t r a t i o n tax and the l i c e n s e tax. In a d d i t i o n , car buyers a l s o have an o b l i g a t i o n to purchase p u b l i c subway bonds when buying automobiles (see Table 5-4). - 8 5 -Table N a t i o n a l Tax ( I n d i r e c t Tax) Automobile A c q u i s i t i o n Tax Automobile R e g i s t r a t i o n Tax L o c a l Tax ( D i r e c t Tax) Automobile Ownership Tax Automobile License Tax Purchase of P u b l i c Subway Bonds Compared with most other c o u n t r i e s , Korea has a more complicated tax s t r u c t u r e and higher tax r a t e s . S i x kinds of taxes are l e v i e d during automobile purchase, compared to one or two taxes i n other c o u n t r i e s . Korea l e v i e s more taxes than any other f o r e i g n country f o r owning automobiles. Tax rates f o r purchasing automobiles are three times as high and eight and a h a l f times as high as those of Japan and the United S t a t e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . The tax r a t e s charged on possessing automobiles are 140 percent, 640 percent and 1,500 percent of those of Japan, France and the United S t a t e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y (see Table 5-5). 5-4: Car Tax System S p e c i a l E x c i s e Tax Value-Added Tax - 8 6 -Table 5-5: An I n t e r n a t i o n a l Comparison of Auto-Related Taxes (Based on Taxes f o r a 1,500 cc Car) A c q u i s i t i o n Possession Kinds Ratio to Car Kinds R a t i o to Car P r i c e (%) P r i c e (%) Korea 6 34.2 3 7.7 Japan 2 11.5 2 5.4 U.S. 1 4.0 1 0.5 W/Germany 1 14.0 1 2.3 U.K. 2 23.3 1 1.0 France 2 29.1 1 1.2 * Source: Lee (1991) These high automobile taxes e f f e c t i v e l y r e s t r a i n e d car ownership f o r the l a s t two decades. Thus Korea had one of the lowest automobile ownership rates i n the world, as shown i n Table 5-6. Table 5-6: Automobile Ownership Rates Country Taiwan Japan U.S.A. U.K. Korea Year 1985 1970 1985 1986 1986 1980 1987 1988 GNP per Capita($) 3,198 1,948 10,987 17,551 9,923 1,589 3,098 4,040 Cars per 1,000 pop. 49 85 282 539 300 6.5 20 23 * Source: Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1990) However, t h i s s i t u a t i o n may not l a s t very much longer, as the GNP i s i n c r e a s i n g r a p i d l y , and there i s pressure to reduce taxes on passenger cars to encourage the automobile i n d u s t r y . Attempts to increase the e x i s t i n g l e v e l of taxes on cars would encounter severe o p p o s i t i o n not only from motorists but a l s o from the auto i n d u s t r y . -87-2 . 2 . 3 . 2 F u e l Tax Fuel tax i s comparatively simple to administer and has a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p to the amount of v e h i c l e use. Thus i t i s d e s i r a b l e to increase f u e l tax to reduce t r a f f i c congestion. As the f u e l tax i n Korea i s r e l a t i v e l y low compared to that of developed c o u n t r i e s , as shown i n Table 5-7, an increase i n the f u e l tax may not provoke seriou s o p p o s i t i o n from m o t o r i s t s . Table 5-7: I n t e r n a t i o n a l Comparison of Fuel (Gasoline) Taxes Country Fuel Tax Index Korea 100 France 296 West Germany 183 Japan 178 U.K. 68 U.S. 32 * Source: Lee (1991) However, the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of the increase i n f u e l tax depends on the response of d r i v e r s to the f u e l p r i c e . Studies of response to p e t r o l p r i c e s suggest short run e l a s t i c i t i e s of 0.1 to 0.3 (May, 1986). According to the Korean M i n i s t r y of Energy and Resources, the e l a s t i c i t y of auto usage to p e t r o l p r i c e s was estimated at 0.09. Thus s u b s t a n t i a l increases of p e t r o l tax are needed to have any s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on the extent of road usage. However, with the higher p e t r o l tax, more people would tend to use diesel-powered cars. This i s because t o t a l taxes f o r d i e s e l are only f o r t y percent of the p r i c e while those f o r g a s o l i n e are 140 percent. Under present circumstances, i t i s q u i t e d i f f i c u l t to r a i s e the tax - 8 8 -l e v e l of d i e s e l to that of gaso l i n e because d i e s e l i s mostly used by buses. Therefore, some s p e c i a l p r o v i s i o n to avoid such e f f e c t s would be requ i r e d . 2.2.3.3 Parking Charges Parking charge p o l i c y i n Seoul has been used as one of the primary p o l i c i e s to c o n t r o l parking demand. However, the p o l i c y d i d not play the r o l e i t was intended to because i t was a c o n t r o l subject to c e n t r a l government. Because the parking charges had been c o n t r o l l e d as a p u b l i c u t i l i t y f a r e , i t was set below the market p r i c e . The low parking fee worsened the earnings and the f i n a n c i a l balances of the parking businesses and stagnated the c o n s t r u c t i o n of parking l o t s . Now, the p r i c i n g system of parking l o t s has been l i b e r a l i z e d and i s on the way to adopting market p r i c i n g systems. The market p r i c i n g system w i l l r a i s e parking fees downtown, given the high l e v e l of demand, and thus the high parking fee w i l l reduce the number of d r i v e r s t r y i n g to park downtown. Although there i s l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n on the e l a s t i c i t y of parking charges i n downtown Seoul, the Korea Transport I n s t i t u t e (1990b) e x p l a i n s that i t i s very low. According to the c i t y planners, the higher charges i n the c i t y centre i n co n t r a s t to elsewhere have increased the turnover of on-street parking i n the c i t y centre. - 8 9 -2.2.3.4 Charging f o r Road Usage A t o l l system i s already operating i n Seoul at the three tunnels at the boundary of the CBD area. The charge i s 100 won f o r a car, which i s p r i n c i p a l l y l e v i e d i n order to cover c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s . I t seems u n l i k e l y that motorists would be dissuaded from making a car t r i p as a r e s u l t of such a low t o l l . On the other hand, the system i s o f t e n c r i t i c i z e d since the manual t o l l c o l l e c t i o n methods used o f t e n lead to congestion on approach roads. I f the same type of Area L i c e n s i n g Scheme Singapore uses were to be implemented i n Seoul, a s i m i l a r s o r t of impact would be f e l t on o v e r a l l t r a f f i c l e v e l s i n the r e s t r i c t e d area. The e f f e c t s of an Area L i c e n s i n g Scheme would vary depending on the area of c o n t r o l and the amount of the l i c e n s e fee. I f r e s t r i c t i o n s were imposed i n the CBD area, i t would impose the r e s t r i c t i o n s on the most cars e f f e c t i v e l y . However, given the inadequate number of parking l o t s and the i n s u f f i c i e n t o r b i t a l routes at the boundary of the CBD, i t could t r a n s f e r parking and congestion problems to outside the c i t y centre. In the case of the outer CBD boundary, i t not only covers l e s s congested areas e x c e s s i v e l y , but a l s o w i l l r e q u i r e more e f f o r t s f o r enforcement. With regard to e l e c t r o n i c road p r i c i n g , cordon c o n t r o l - t y p e systems seem to be more f e a s i b l e f o r Seoul than point p r i c i n g - t y p e schemes. This i s because they would not r e s u l t i n the undesirable changes i n -90-d r i v i n g route s e l e c t i o n s which would be expected under a p o i n t p r i c i n g scheme. I f a cordon c o n t r o l - t y p e e l e c t r o n i c road p r i c i n g system were introduced with the same co n d i t i o n s of charge l e v e l , c o n t r o l l e d p e r i o d , etc. as i n the cordon c o n t r o l type area l i c e n s i n g scheme, the o v e r a l l impact on the road t r a f f i c would be very s i m i l a r to that of area l i c e n s i n g schemes. For Hong Kong, i t s i s l a n d - l i k e s i t u a t i o n would be favourable f o r the s u c c e s s f u l implementation of an e l e c t r o n i c road p r i c i n g scheme. In Seoul, which has more complex t r a v e l p a t t e r n s , the a p p l i c a t i o n of an e l e c t r o n i c road p r i c i n g system would need more d e t a i l e d planning. 3. ASSESSMENT OF POLICY ALTERNATIVES FOR SEOUL 3.1 I n t r o d u c t i o n We have analyzed twelve p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s to reduce t r a f f i c congestion i n Seoul and reviewed the expected performance of each a l t e r n a t i v e when ap p l i e d to Seoul s i t u a t i o n s . From t h i s i t i s p o s s i b l e to suggest the r e l a t i v e performance of each a l t e r n a t i v e to meet c e r t a i n c r i t e r i a . In the assessment of the performance of the various TDM measures cat e g o r i z e d i n Chapter 4, we use f i v e c r i t e r i a below which w i l l be reviewed i n the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n : • E f f i c i e n c y • Equity • F e a s i b i l i t y • Environmental E f f e c t • F l e x i b i l i t y 3.2 Assessment C r i t e r i a 3.2.1 E f f i c i e n c y In congested c o n d i t i o n s each a d d i t i o n a l v e h i c l e i n the t r a f f i c stream can add s i g n i f i c a n t l y to the t o t a l time spent and costs i n c u r r e d by those that i t j o i n s (May, 1986). According to Smeed (1968), each a d d i t i o n a l d r i v e r was l i k e l y to impose time l o s s e s f o r other v e h i c l e s equal to h i s own t r a v e l time at 21 km/h, and double h i s own time at 16 km/h. In p r a c t i s e , i n d i v i d u a l motorists w i l l only consider t h e i r own costs and take no account of the congestion impact of t h e i r t r i p on other v e h i c l e s . I f they were to be r e s t r a i n e d , the saving i n t r a v e l costs to others would exceed the l o s t personal b e n e f i t s to the d r i v e r . Although the reduction of these drawbacks i s one of the main o b j e c t i v e s of TDM measures, e f f i c i e n c y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a l s o impose c o n s t r a i n t s on the designs of TDM measures. In p a r t i c u l a r , i t i s important to ensure that the resources i n v o l v e d i n a d m i n i s t e r i n g - 9 2 -and e n f o r c i n g the measures, and f o r d r i v e r s i n using i t , do not exceed the resource savings achieved through TDM measures. A d d i t i o n a l resource costs outside the immediate t a r g e t area as a r e s u l t of t r a n s f e r to other routes, modes or times of t r a v e l need to be c a r e f u l l y assessed (May, 1986). In t h i s study, we rated the degree of e f f i c i e n c y by how e f f e c t i v e the a l t e r n a t i v e s were i n reducing t r a f f i c congestion. Most a l t e r n a t i v e s are regarded as e f f e c t i v e . P r e f e r e n t i a l treatment f o r HOVs, improvement of t r a n s i t system, and odd and even days r u l e have s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s on t r a f f i c congestion, while encouragement of r i d e s h a r i n g and v a r i a b l e work hours have minor e f f e c t s i n Seoul. 3.2.2 Equity Equity i s r e l a t e d to the theme of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of costs and b e n e f i t s i n s o c i e t y . There are c l e a r equity arguments i n favour of r e s t r a i n i n g those who impose a net burden on the t r a f f i c s t r a i n ; of p r o t e c t i n g from congestion those with p a r t i c u l a r needs; of reducing the environmental impact of t r a f f i c on r e s i d e n t s and pe d e s t r i a n s ; and of r e s t r i c t i n g through t r a f f i c i n the i n t e r e s t s of c i t y centre v i t a l i t y . These arguments of t e n represent a major element i n the j u s t i f i c a t i o n of " s t i c k " measures, but equity issues are e q u a l l y o f t e n used to dismiss r e s t r a i n t proposals. The most frequent c r i t i c i s m i s of the e f f e c t s of f i s c a l c o n t r o l s on lower income car - 9 3 -users (May, 1986). But i n e q u a l i t i e s can a l s o a r i s e through r e l o c a t i o n of t r a f f i c problems, r e g u l a t o r y c o n t r o l s on those who have no a l t e r n a t i v e , and time p e n a l t i e s on those who place a high value on time. I f the f u l l range of equity issues a r i s i n g from r e s t r a i n t i s to be considered, i t i s important to i d e n t i f y s e p a r a t e l y the e f f e c t s by user type, l o c a t i o n , income l e v e l , journey purpose (or need), and the e f f e c t s on both users and non-users (May, 1986). In t h i s study, the degree of equity among a l t e r n a t i v e s i s ra t e d according as how much the poor are b e n e f i t e d by the implementation of a l t e r n a t i v e s . By t h i s r a t i n g , p r e f e r e n t i a l treatment f o r HOVs and improvement of t r a n s i t system rank the most f a i r and j u s t a l t e r n a t i v e s ; i n c o n t r a s t , f u e l tax and charging f o r road usage are considered l e a s t e q u i t a b l e . 3.2.3 F e a s i b i l i t y TDM measures should be enforced and workable i n the s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n of a c i t y . Very few proposed r e s t r a i n t schemes have been implemented r e c e n t l y . One of the major reasons f o r o b j e c t i o n s to the proposed schemes i s that they might be unworkable or i n e f f e c t i v e . Perhaps the most important lesson to be l e a r n t from recent f a i l u r e s to implement TDM measures i s that we cannot simply assume th a t the - 9 4 -TDM measure i s acceptable as an end i n i t s e l f (May, 1986). TDM measures should be a d m i n i s t r a t i v e l y and o p e r a t i o n a l l y as simple as p o s s i b l e without wasting time or other resources from both the viewpoint of operators and users. Another important aspect i n terms of f e a s i b i l i t y i s the cost of implementing TDM measures. Measures which need l e a s t costs are most favourable. In a d d i t i o n , the number of years required to p l a n , design, construct and implement the TDM measure should be as short as p o s s i b l e . Measures that can be put i n place q u i c k l y r e c e i v e more favourable assessments (Transport 2021, 1993). Most s t i c k measures would rank r e l a t i v e l y low i n terms of f e a s i b i l i t y because of t h e i r innate c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and o p p o s i t i o n from c i t i z e n s . P r e f e r e n t i a l treatment f o r HOVs would be implemented with ease and minimal costs i f converting e x i s t i n g lanes i n t o HOV p r i o r i t y lanes. 3.2.4 Environmental E f f e c t T r a f f i c imposes a s e r i e s of environmental disadvantages and TDM measures can be designed to reduce these problems. Noise and p e d e s t r i a n problems are best t a c k l e d by s u b s t a n t i a l reductions i n - 9 5 -a l l t r a f f i c i n the areas p a r t i c u l a r l y at r i s k ; concern over danger, v i b r a t i o n and v i s u a l i n t r u s i o n may w e l l j u s t i f y an emphasis on r e s t r i c t i n g commercial v e h i c l e s ; c e r t a i n p o l l u t a n t s r e q u i r e an area-wide r e d u c t i o n i n petrol-engined v e h i c l e movements (May, 1986). However, considerable care i s required to avoid simply t r a n s f e r r i n g environmental problems to other areas. As they are intended to reduce t r a f f i c volume, most TDM measures get a high r a t i n g with regard to environmental e f f e c t . E s p e c i a l l y , p r e f e r e n t i a l treatment f o r HOVs and charging f o r road usage would have the most favorable e f f e c t s on environment. 3.2.5 F l e x i b i l i t y Because the need f o r r e s t r a i n t and the p r e c i s e e f f e c t s of r e s t r a i n t methods are u n c e r t a i n , i t i s important that the r e s t r a i n t p o l i c y be f l e x i b l e . In t h i s way the e f f e c t can be i n t e n s i f i e d or reduced as necessary, and adverse e f f e c t s can be modified. In a d d i t i o n , r e s t r a i n t must bear more h e a v i l y on those t r i p s that are l e a s t j u s t i f i e d i n terms of the problems that they cause, and t h i s process must not be s u b s t a n t i a l l y undermined by avoidance or evasion. At the same time, i t must not impose r e s t r i c t i o n s on those who do not c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y to congestion or environmental i n t r u s i o n ; n e i t h e r must i t impose hardship on those who do, but have l i t t l e a l t e r n a t i v e i n terms of route, mode, time - 9 6 -or d e s t i n a t i o n (May, 1986). In terms of f l e x i b i l i t y , most s t i c k TDM measures would get a low r a t i n g because of t h e i r innate c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , w h i l s t most c a r r o t TDM measures would get a r e l a t i v e l y high r a t i n g . Some exeptions i n the s t i c k measures are 'parking charges' and 'charging f o r road usage', which i s f a i r l y f l e x i b l e i n that charges can be r e l a t i v e l y e a s i l y adjusted. 3.3 Summary of the Assessment Because the performance of each p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e has m u l t i p l e dimensions, i t i s not easy to summarize the r e s u l t s . But some method of comparing a l t e r n a t i v e s i s necessary to help policy-makers choose which to pursue most v i g o r o u s l y (Downs, 1992). Therefore, i n t h i s chapter, each a l t e r n a t i v e i s evaluated with respect to f i v e c r i t e r i a . These evaluations are admittedly s u b j e c t i v e r a t h e r than s c i e n t i f i c ; they represent the author's best judgements. However, these assessments are not e n t i r e l y a r b i t r a r y , since they have been based on the a n a l y s i s presented i n e a r l i e r chapters. The r e s u l t s of the e v a l u a t i o n have been summarized i n Table 5-8. - 9 7 -Table 5-8: Result of E v a l u a t i o n E f f i c i e n c y Equity F e a s i b i l i t y Environmental F l e x i b i l i t y E f f e c t "Carrot" Measures - P r e f e r e n t i a l 00 00 0 00 00 Treatment f o r HOVs -Improvement of 00 00 + 0 0 T r a n s i t System - I n t r o d u c t i o n of 0 0 0 0 0 P a r a - t r a n s i t -Encouragement of - 0 + + 0 Ridesharing - V a r i a b l e Work Hours - 0 + 0 0 " S t i c k " Measures -Control of Parking + + + 0 Supply - T r a f f i c Zone System + + + + -Odd and Even 0 + - 0 Days Rule -Road Use Permit + • + - 0 System -Taxation of Cars 0 + - 0 + -Fuel Tax 0 - - 0 + -Parking Charges + + + 0 0 -Charging f o r Road 00 - - 00 0 Usage Note: 00: e x c e l l e n t , 0: good, +: moderate, -: poor - 9 8 -3.4 S e l e c t i o n of Appropriate A l t e r n a t i v e s Choosing optimal p o l i c i e s from various a l t e r n a t i v e s u s u a l l y r e q u i r e s computations based on the weights assigned to the v a r i o u s r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s (Tversky, 1972). Some t r a n s p o r t a t i o n planners argue that a weighting scheme must be developed i n order to a s s i g n r e l a t i v e weights to the e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a . Yet, others (mostly economists) argue that since any attempt to assign weights to the c r i t e r i a i s bound to become a r b i t r a r y and s u b j e c t i v e , i t i s best to leave the job to the p o l i t i c i a n s and other d e c i s i o n makers. Considering the l i m i t of the a n a l y s i s done i n s e c t i o n 3.3, the author adopted the l a t t e r approach. In t h i s study, the a l t e r n a t i v e s which do not appear favourable against the c r i t e r i a w i l l be e l i m i n a t e d based on the r e s u l t s of assessment shown i n Table 5-8 i n order to narrow the p o t e n t i a l a l t e r n a t i v e s without e s t i m a t i n g r e l a t i v e weights of a l t e r n a t i v e s . In terms of f e a s i b i l i t y , t r a f f i c zone systems, odd and even days r u l e , road use permit system, and t a x a t i o n of cars would appear to face obstacles f o r implementation i n Seoul. The t r a f f i c zone system has l i m i t e d prospects due to the geographical c o n d i t i o n s of Seoul. The odd and even days r u l e has been e l i m i n a t e d because there are various ways of circumventing the system and i n f l e x i b l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The road use permit system has been e l i m i n a t e d on account of expected enforcement and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e requirements. Taxation of cars would encounter serious o p p o s i t i o n from the - 9 9 -middle-income c l a s s who are planning to purchase cars of t h e i r own i n the near f u t u r e , and taxes on cars are already very high compared to those of f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . In terms of e f f i c i e n c y , v a r i a b l e work hours and r i d e s h a r i n g have been e l i m i n a t e d because of t h e i r n e g l i g i b l e e f f e c t s on t r a f f i c congestion. But t h e i r p o t e n t i a l importance i n the fu t u r e may w e l l be noted. The remaining a l t e r n a t i v e s a l s o have some drawbacks against the c r i t e r i a as shown i n Table 5-8. In consequence, no a l t e r n a t i v e on i t s own completely meets a l l the requirements. In order to overcome t h e i r i n d i v i d u a l weaknesses, a combination of a l t e r n a t i v e s would be required. On the ba s i s of the r e s u l t s of the above assessments, a s e l e c t e d l i s t of a l t e r n a t i v e s as shown i n Table 5-9 i s suggested. These s e l e c t e d a l t e r n a t i v e s are broadly c a t e g o r i z e d i n t o major and supplementary a l t e r n a t i v e s rated by expected performance, and are shown i n Table 5-9. The a l t e r n a t i v e s are d i v i d e d i n t o short term a l t e r n a t i v e s ( f i v e years or l e s s ) and long term a l t e r n a t i v e s (ten years or l e s s ) . Table 5-9: Selected L i s t of A l t e r n a t i v e s Major Supplementary Short Term P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment f o r HOVs/ Fuel Tax I n t r o d u c t i o n of Para-T r a n s i t / Parking Charges Long Term Improvement of T r a n s i t System/ Charging f o r Road Usage Cont r o l of Parking Supply - 100-CHAPTER 6 SUMMARY, POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION Over the l a s t two decades, car ownership i n Seoul has increased d r a m a t i c a l l y i n response to r a p i d economic growth and p o l i c i e s which d i d not discourage car owenership and use. The t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p o l i c i e s i n Seoul are mainly concerned with the p r o v i s i o n of new roads and the b u i l d i n g of subway systems. Despite major investments, these are not s u f f i c i e n t to cope e f f e c t i v e l y with the problems caused by t r a f f i c congestion. The magnitude of congestion costs i n Seoul i s much greater than one might t h i n k . C a l c u l a t i o n s here i n d i c a t e the cost of congestion i n Seoul to be 28,643 m i l l i o n won per day. Most of the congestion costs accrue as t r a v e l time costs. These enormous congestion costs can be a warning to v e h i c l e users and p o l i c y developers. One might wonder: Do these i n d i c a t e that appropriate p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s to reduce congestion are imminent? The a l t e r n a t i v e s reviewed i n t h i s study are ca t e g o r i z e d by use of i n c e n t i v e and by type of c o n t r o l . A l i s t of measures are shown below. 1. Carrot TDM Measures • P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment f o r HOVs • Improvement of T r a n s i t System • I n t r o d u c t i o n of P a r a - t r a n s i t • Encouragement of Ridesharing • V a r i a b l e Work Hours - 101 -2. S t i c k TDM Measures 1) P h y s i c a l R e s t r a i n t s • Parking Supply Controls • T r a f f i c Zone Systems 2) Regulatory R e s t r a i n t s • Odd and Even Days Rule • Road Use Permit System 3) Use of P r i c i n g System • Taxation of Cars • Fuel Tax Parking Charges • Charging f o r Road Usage These p o l i c y measures are reviewed i n terms of t h e i r advantages and disadvantages, and expected performance when a p p l i e d to the Seoul t r a f f i c c o n d i t i o n s . F i n a l l y , they are assessed against the f o l l o w i n g c r i t e r i a : e f f i c i e n c y , e q u i t y , f e a s i b i l i t y , environmental e f f e c t , and f l e x i b i l i t y . As a l l the a l t e r n a t i v e s have some drawbacks i n r e l a t i o n to one or more of the c r i t e r i a , combinations of a l t e r n a t i v e s are suggested. On the b a s i s of assessment here, a s e l e c t e d l i s t of a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r Seoul i s recommended, and i s shown below: Major Supplementary Short Term P r e f e r e n t i a l Treatment f o r HOVs/ Fuel Tax I n t r o d u c t i o n of Para-t r a n s i t / Parking Charges Long Term Improvement of T r a n s i t System/ Charging f o r Road Usage Cont r o l of Parking Supply - 102-Reducing congestion i s worth the e f f o r t because t r a f f i c congestion costs b i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s i n wasted time and f u e l each year (Downs, 1992). However, i t seems l i k e l y that p o l i c y makers w i l l be r e l u c t a n t to adopt some TDM measures, e s p e c i a l l y " s t i c k " measures, u n t i l they have a c l e a r e r understanding of t h e i r e f f e c t s and gain p u b l i c support. Very few proposed r e s t r a i n t schemes have, i n p r a c t i c e , been implemented, and a recent review suggested that the reasons f o r t h i s were concerns that r e s t r a i n t might be i n e f f e c t i v e , might be u n f a i r to c e r t a i n groups i n s o c i e t y , or might i n v o l v e an unacceptable r e s t r i c t i o n on freedom of movement (May, 1986). Thus, to implement TDM measures e f f e c t i v e l y , stronger i n i t i a t i v e s from p o l i c y makers w i l l be needed to generate p u b l i c support. 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